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Welcome to America Goes To War. We focus on news about the war on terror and other important strategic matters.

0230 GMT March 5, 2012

Two elections have taken place and both are a bit strange, to put it mildly. In Russia Czar Pootey The Poot returns as president for a six-year term. Media reports say voters were bused from polling station to polling station to vote multiple times. Iran has voted for a new parliament. Iranian elections tend to be on the fair side, but the strangeness comes in because an unelected body rules who can stand for election and who can’t, which vitiates the whole process. The Unshaven One’s supporters have lost seats, his opponents have won seats, but don’t expect there will be the slightest change in Iran’s foreign policy.

Syria and Libya We haven’t been reporting on these two countries because there is nothing new to report. In Syria the government continues to retake lost territory. Not only as the opposition city of Homs fallen to the loyalists, but in the north along the Turkish border the opposition is being squeezed into an ever narrower strip. While the US says it has ample evidence of Iran’s material and manpower support to Syria, there seems to be no evidence of help to the opposition. In Libya the various militias are busy beating each other up and the country is going nowhere.

Nothing to be alarmed about in either case. Revolutions have their ups and downs because victory for the opposition means fault-lines suppressed by the dictator are exposed, and more rounds of bloodletting take place until a new equilibrium is reached.

President Obama and Iran Unlike some of our readers, we’re willing to cut President Obama some slack. After all, he became president after just four years as senator, which means for practical purposes his political experience is zero. He’s going to make a lot of mistakes. We can’t afford mistakes, his critics will say. Well, even the very experienced types seem to keep making bloopers, so maybe its just an occupational hazard.

But the Prez needs to stop his silly talk on Iran. On one hand he keeps warning Iran all options including force are very much on the table. Then he beats up Israel for its threats to use force. Then he threatens the use of force again. There is no political purpose served by these mixed messages. If he wants to advise restraint on Israel, best done quietly without all the hoo-haa. Prez should note that not saying anything to Israel in public severely intensifies the pressure on Iran, increasing the chances it may actually respond to the options short-of-war the US has unleashed. By periodically attacking Israel the Prez is managing only to convince Iran no one is actually serious about using force and it can row, row, row its N-boat merrily down the stream and so on.

Two points which can usefully be made. First, our information indicates that Iran is nowhere close to a bomb, which is also what the CIA says. It does not, however, follow that there is no need for an immediate decision on a strike. Indeed, it is all the better to strike now when we are certain Iran has no bombs. Second, a lot of the Israeli talk of an imminent strike may simply be a ploy to pull the US into a strike. How? Well, if Israel hits Iran, even without any US help, the US is still going to have to deal with the considerable fall-out. What would be worse than making a strike is to make one and not succeed. Because now there will be even more complications. So Israel may just be telling the US, “join us in the strike and lets do the job properly, since you’re going to take the blame anyway.” We suspect Israel’s preferred option is that the US do the entire job, but that’s another story.

A technical point which can be made usefully. Do not assume that if Israel attacks Iran, it will be a one-off show. The attack will go on over several days, if not weeks. ‘Nuf said.

The Matrix Editor has finally figured out how to use the remote in the gym to get a menu of programs for the little TVs that are stuck to each exercise machine. Editor does not watch TV at home, in fact his TV doesn’t work because it’s the old analog thing. But in the gym it helps take one’s mind off the pain of pushing oneself on the dratted exercise machines. So thanks to his new knowledge, which brings him to the level of the average 4-year old in terms of TV/remote skills, Editor no longer has to watch the soaps, he can watch movies. Sometimes the subtitles are on the screen – Editor has yet to figure out how to get subtitles, and he certainly is not going to buy a pair of ear phones so he can follow the dialog. What people don’t understand is that modern ear phones are actually sucking out our intelligence and broadcasting it to Mars. The Martians are slowly – very slowly – getting smarter even as we get rapidly dumber. That’s because in the TV/digital age we have very little intelligence to start with, so when we lose smarts, we lose a big percentage, whereas the Martians, who are already very smart, gain only a small percentage.

So today watching The Matrix for 40-minutes (and adverts for 20-minutes) Editor was treated to this wisdom from Agent, who is speaking to a captured Morpheus. Humans are a virus, says Agent, because every other species finds equilibrium with nature, whereas human destroy their environment, like cancer cells. Hmmmmm. Wish the screen writers had consulted a biologist before penning those deathlessly breathless words. Other species find an equilibrium not because they have some intrinsic appreciation of the need for an equilibrium, but because nature, red in tooth and claw forces it on them. When a predator species finds plenty of prey, it thrives, and then it overhunts the prey species, and starts dying out. As the predators get less, the prey herds start recovering, and so on, endlessly. Humans have spread everywhere on earth because we have the capacity to grow food and not have to rely on what nature gives, and for a bunch of other reasons.

No comment is necessary on the final sequence, where Neo and Trinity load themselves about with seemingly ten pairs of guns each, and each time they run out of ammunition for one pair, they merely discard the weapons and grab another pair they have tucked away on their persons. One is surprised they are not walking at 2-kilometers an hour with bow legs considering the weight of the arsenal each carries. And of course, if anyone thinks they can outrun bullets travelling at 1000-meters/second and fired at close range just by turning somersaults, then for sure ALL their brains have been sucked out and transmitted to Mars. And anyone getting into a gunfight where they emerge from cover the instant the other side stops firing and empty out their magazines at the other side is not actually going to get to empty out any magazines, because they are going to immediately shot – particularly when facing multiple opponents.

Okay, you say, this is just a fantasy on par with videogames where each time you get killed you get re-lifed, and when you run out of lives you press “Start new game”. Sure, but where’s the harm in a little realism?

0230 GMT March 4, 2012

Rush Limbaugh, the famous media slut and prostitute, has been sent to the woodshed for accusing a 30-year old Georgetown University law student of exhibiting the behavior he exhibits every day. Technically a slut is a dirty person, though the word has come to mean sexually promiscuous. Rush routinely exhibits his sluttishness: he has a habitually dirty mouth since he defecates through his mouth, and the world sees that every day, but since he has failed to produce any evidence the law student is promiscuous, we must withhold judgment on her sluttiness or lack of it. As for prostitute, well, a prostitute provides honest services for money and is simply a working person. Insofar as prostitutes are earning a living by their own efforts and not relying on government handouts, Rush should commend them. Rush also provides services in exchange for money; this is proven. What he has not proved is the law student is providing sexual services for money, so again, while his record is on the record so as to speak, we have only his word regarding the law student.

And on, President Obama, don’t forget to ask a rich campaign supporter to send a big fat check to Rush, if you haven’t already, since he has just gained you a whole bunch of votes. Good man, Rush, a true Democratic supporter at heart, determined to discredit the Republicans by mole-ishly tunneling from within.

On the energy front many things are happening The Dutch are testing floating windmills, which are much cheaper to construct than the usual offshore windmills. One design is at 7.5-MW, which is a whacking big turbine. Solar cells are already generating electricity at lower rates than base-load plants, in great part due to the Chinese who have ruthlessly driven down the global prices of solar cells as they consolidate their domination of the industry. Currently solar cells cost 88-cents a watt (the installed price is, of course much more). Coal costs about $2/watt and nuclear about $4, both installed. Solar is expected to go down to below 50-cent/watt shortly. Of course, as with wind the storage problem has not been solved and until it is, solar and wind will remain supplementary sources. But the Dutch have replaced 20% of their power generation with windmills, which is pretty impressive. The Brits seem to be having serious problems with their wind programs, which are costing huge amounts of taxpayer money and generating little power. We’re not quite sure what’s happening.

Meanwhile, Chevrolet has suspended production of its all-electric Volt. Last year it managed to meet 77% of its sales target, but at 10,000 vehicles it was a pretty limp-noodlish target to begin with. Currently it has excess inventory and so must stop production for a while. No great secret on what happened: the electric car infrastructure does not exist, electrics lack the enormous convenience of gasoline cars, and clever auto engineers are squeezing very high miles-per-gallon rates – approaching 50 – while increasing the power of the smaller engines. So, as ol’ Data on Star Trek (or was it Dr. Spock) might say, electrics don’t compute. Even hybrid sales are down.

As for gasoline prices, we are sorry to tell our friends Mr. Obama, who is guilty of many sins, has nothing to do with the runup. The reason is simple. Several East Coast refineries are shutting down due to old age, cutting refining capacity. Transporting refined fuel from overseas or from other US refineries to the East Coast is expensive. In any case many of these refineries use light crude, the price of which has been shooting up: the benchmark Brent was $124 the other day, West Texas Intermediate was $104. But the East Coast refineries can’t use WTI, and in any case, there is a transportation bottleneck: the American Midwest/West is producing so much of the stuff people can’t get it out to the Gulf refineries that process WTI. Keystone’s decision to build the Oklahoma – Gulf line (complete next year) will increase supply and prices will come down. Last August, BTW, WTI was at $84. Speculation has a lot to do with the increase, as does the beating of the wardrums over Iran.

Meanwhile, the US energy Administration says the Chinese have 1.3-quadrillion-cubic-feet of technically recoverable shale natural gas compared to US 875-trillion-cubic-feet. The Chinese have jumped on this source and are tying up for technology and exploration left and right. Given the Chinese propensity to ignore environmental issues and move at top speed on engineering, in the next five years we should see a significant part of Chinese energy demand being met from this new source, which should reduce pressure on ever increasing oil prices. And Chinese energy intensity is three times that of the US per dollar of GDP. There is plenty of room for improvement, which will further reduce Chinese energy demand.

British Petroleum and a number of plaintiffs have reached agreement to settle claims for $7-billion. That is in addition to $7-billion BP has already paid out to those affected, plus $14-billion spent in cleaning up the oil spill. The judge has suspended judicial proceedings to give BP and other claimants to see if they can reach out-of-court agreements.

Meanwhile, Cuba has started drilling in the Florida Straits and this is sending American environmentalists crazy (to say nothing of the anti-Cuba lobby, but that’s a different issue). If there is a spill, American companies will not be able to help clean it up because of the embargo. The environmentalists are darkly calling for the US to financially punish those companies helping Cuba. But, friends, embargos are weapons best used in careful moderation and after generating consensus. If the US goes about embargoing anyone who deals with people it doesn’t like, at some point other countries such as the Euros are going to get annoyed and go ahead anyway. And the Chinese, my dear, frankly doing give a darn. If the eviros want to force Cuba into China’s arms with their talk of embargoes, the Chinese aren’t going to weep.

0230 GMT March 3, 2012

Further proof America is collapsing under the weight of its created structures

Would you believe that a very high credit score can be a negative? This makes no sense, right? Not so. Someone lost their cell T-Mobile cell-phone. They researched new phones and plans (with T-Mobile remaining as their carrier) and found it suited to get to a monthly plan and to buy a phone instead of signing a new 2-year contract with T-mobile and getting a free phone (the lost phone was on a contract the minimum period was years past, so the person was free to move to a new plan). Oh dear, says T-Mobile, we can’t shift your old number to the new instrument unless you get a 2-year plan. (We’re pretty sure this is illegal, but that’s a separate issue.) Get a 2-year plan, we’ll transfer your number to the new phone, and then we’ll let you convert to a monthly plan (all sounds terribly shady and you’d have to be mad to believe a telephone company, even American politicians are more honest than the telcos, for heaven’s sake, but that’s another story). Well, the person sighed but really wanted their old number, so they applied for a 2-year contract. Now, as you know, this requires a credit check. Back came T-Mobile: sorry, your credit doesn’t check. Whoa, says our person, I have 973/1000, how much higher do I have to get to get a cell phone for $%#@!%^* sake?!

Oh, says T-Mobile, you see, your score is so high we’re concerned it’s a fake, so no can do, sorry about that and have a nice day. So here you have a person of extreme financial virtue, who has zero debt, always pays their credit cards on time, saves half their income, and they can’t get a freaking cell phone because their credit rating is so high T-Mobile decides it must be a fake?

In the name of “progress” every year the life of an American get more complicated. But as anyone familiar with structures will tell you, complexity reaches a point where you get failure. This is why the US is failing in Afghanistan, why it is losing the war on drugs, why it cannot reduce the deficit, why its spending more and more money on health and getting outcomes worse than any first-world country and a whole bunch of other things.

Incidentally, in case you think the person in this story is the Editor, be assured it’s not. Editor’s credit rating is in the basement – the lowest level of a multi-story basement. First Editor thought its because he had to file Chapter 11 to save his house when Mrs. R. IV took off years ago. But on checking, he found that’s not the reason. The reason is – please get this – is that his student loans are shown as open accounts drawn to 100% of their limit. That a student loan is not a credit card does not seem to register with the rating companies. You may well ask why is Editor not getting this cleared up with the rating companies. Because when he’s dealing with moronic bureaucracies, his already short fuse gets cut by 99%. He’s too old now to get sent to jail for tearing out the lungs of the negative IQ types one has to deal with at the credit bureaus. It’s true these morons breathe through their fundaments and you can’t even say they’re brain dead because they have no brains, but we bet there is some statute of the USC that says you cannot rip out the lungs of a person, even if they work for a credit bureau. American law is very cunning.

But back to Afghanistan

So we’re reading Michael Gerson in the Washington Post. He’s a very moderate conservative, careful not to overreach with his language (unlike George Will on the right and Eugene Robinson on the left), and a calm sort of a fellow, easy to read, and always has a valid point even if one does not agree with him.

So we’re a bit surprised to read Mr. Gerson say we must stay the course in Afghanistan because we’re winning. Violence is down by a third, three hundred thousand Afghan police and soldiers are trained, and the enemy has been deprived of his sanctuaries. Well, for a moment we thought we were having a Philip K. Dick moment. As it is the Editor slips with ease into alternate universes (alas, in none does he have a date for as far as he can upstream, downstream, sidestream, whateverstream, so however long one may debate as to what constitutes reality, the state of No-Date looks pretty real), and what Mr. Gerson was saying was so completely at odds with the reality of Afghanistan in THIS universe that Editor thought he must have entered ALT-UNIVERSE.

Of course, the explanation is simple. Someone who is totally deluded or just outright lying has told Mr. Gerson we’re winning whereas actually violence is up, those 300,000 Afghans are useless, and every time the US pulls out an area it has declared as pacified the enemy simply returns (actually the enemy never really leaves). By the way, personally we don’t think the amount of violence is an indicator of progress or lack of it – its just not a useful metric and we’re not sure why the US uses it, but that’s another story we can discuss at another time. Among the dozens of useful metrics is what is the kilometers of road do the good guys control 24-hours of the day, and suffice it to say, it’s pretty darn dismal. But again , we digress.

For a long time – since we stopped swallowing the official line about the great progress we’re making – Editor has been convinced that we’re not winning because the structures the US has built in Afghanistan are so complicated they are dysfunctional. Take a simple example. Those 300,000 police/soldiers cost $12-billion/year. Afghanistan’s revenue is about $2-billion. Assuming a wartime allottment of 50% of revenue to the military, Afghanistan’s revenue would have to increase by 12 times before the country can afford the military the US has imposed. Is this likely to happen? No. So then what is the point of the structure?

You might be interested to note that the Indian army spends – very approximately - $15,000 per year per soldier. And the Indian army is not just deployed in very difficult operational areas over a country of 1.3-million square-miles, it has a whacking great amount of equipment and a very high rate of operational readiness. Afghanistan is spending $40,000 per soldier/policeman. If you costed the Indians on that basis – including armed police and border troops, its likely the figure falls to $10,000, a quarter that of the Afghans. Afghanistan is a much poorer country. So how are they spending so much more than India? It’s a great mystery, but that’s a sign of over-complicated structures that are dysfunctional.

Sorry – we have to quit in mind-thought because Editor is getting bored and so are you. More another time.

0230 GMT March 2, 2012

India should accept China’s contention their boundary lies in the valley and not the crest China’s claim to a substantial part of Indian Ladakh and the state of Arunachal Pradesh is that the international boundary lies not on the mountain crests (watershed) as enunciated by the British (McMahon Line) but down to the valleys of the mountain crests. This permits India to reclaim Chinese occupied Ladakh, and all Tibet south of the Brahmaputra (the Yarling Zangbo in Tibetan). If China stands on the mountain crests and looks south and sees the Brahmaputra River Valley; India is also on the crests and if it looks down northward, it also see the Brahmaputra Valley because the river originates in Tibet, flows from west to east, and comes down into India flowing east to west before turning south into Bangladesh and thence to the Bay of Bengal. So to us, the matter is very simple: Southern Tibet belongs to India using Chinese logic.

It is also time India repudiated Nehru’s acceptance of Tibet as an integral part of China, and the subsequent withdrawal of Indian rights over Tibet as the successor to the British Empire. The Chinese have a quite convoluted theory as to why Tibet is theirs, based primarily on their claim and their documents that Tibet was a tributary state. Needless to say, the documents where the Tibetans claimed sovereignty over large parts of western China are not likely to be made available to scholars, as also the documents in which the Tibetans declared themselves as independent kingdom. It is time India reconstructed these documents to the best possible degree.

Indians by nature are strategically passive even though they can be tactically aggressive. But if India does not go on the strategic offensive against a rising China, it will find itself being continually pushed more and more by Beijing. The time has come that each time Beijing asserts ownership of Arunachal Pradesh, India should claim ownership of Southern Tibet on the same basis, that the border lies at the river valley, not the mountain crests. India also needs to do its historical research to show that large parts of China-claimed west Tibet has been part of Indian kingdoms in the past. And just as China claims the China Seas, seeking to exclude – among others – Indian warships, India should clearly enunciate it control of the Andaman Sea, the Bay of Bengal, and the Arabian Sea.

At all times it must be made clear to China that India has the option of declaring Tibet as an independent country under illegal foreign occupation. And if necessary, the threat must be turned into reality. China respects only force and power. India must respond in kind.

Regarding Pakistan, I do not see it necessary to repeat my consistent stance over 40+ years that the Partition of India was an illegal act, and that Nehru did not speak for India when he accepted the illegality. I was told many times when I lived in India that actually Nehru agreed to Partition only as a clever move to speed the departure of the British. He is said to have believed that Pakistan would fall apart, and be reabsorbed by India. Well, just how long did Nehru envisage India should wait? 20 years? 50 years? 100 years? A thousand years? This was Nehru being too clever by half and outsmarting himself. Watching Pakistan disintegrate in slow-motion thanks to forces beyond our control is not a strategy. It shows not how smart we Indians are, but what a bunch of craven, frightened morons we are, running away from our own shadows. We may all agree the Islamic invaders thoroughly brutalized India and severely damaged its civilization. So are we going to sit around for the next 800 years with our thumbs in our mouths, our eyes tightly shut, and reminding ourselves how traumatized we are? Whose responsibility was it that the Islamic invaders, followed by the British invaders, took over India for eight centuries? It is our responsibility, no one else’s, because after some half-hearted resistance we just gave up. Whose responsibility is it that the Chinese took over Tibet and defeated us in 1962? It is solely our responsibility.

It is so typical of our pathetic nature that we say “Oh well, that’s all in the past, what can we do about it?” We can do everything about it, and the time to start is now.

Iran paying Indian exporters in Rupees using a private Iranian bank. Private banks are not subject to US/Western sanctions as are Iranian state banks. Some $3-billion of Indian exports for which payment had not been made due to sanctions will now be cleared. Since 2011 India has been paying Iran for oil using a Turkish bank, but Haaretz of Israel says this route will likely soon become vulnerable to sanctions. India and Iran are working on a plan to use rupee trade to pay for up to 45% of the oil. The newspaper notes that India abides by UN sanctions against Iran but has not agreed to the new US/Western sanctions. Nonetheless, According to other reports India has begun reducing oil imports from Iran. There is a limit to how low India can go because its Mangalore refinery is built specifically for Iranian crude.

Interestingly, according to Wikipedia, the Mangalore refinery can process a wide range of crudes 24 to 46 API gravity, sweet and sour, heavy and light. We don’t know enough to tell if this means the refinery (12.5-million tons/year) cannot process, for example, Saudi crude, but this point needs to be looked into. India may just be making an excuse tocoid confrontation with the US.

Nonetheless, we must insist that if India is to subordinate its long-standing good relations with Iran to US interests, the US has to give up Pakistan interests to suit India. The US-India relationship is, to our mind, 90% one way with the US getting away with murder (literally, since it backs Pakistan, an enemy of India’s which has waged a low-level 25 year war against India) and giving very little in return. There is no need for India to make any excuses. It should flat-out ask the US what Washington proposes to do for India. And so very sorry, nuclear reactors that US companies can’t sell in the US is no favor to India. Nor are US arms sales which the US needs more than India. Time for India to stand up for itself and to stop licking America’s hand and wagging its tail in return for a few pats and the odd table scraps.

Of course, the odds of India standing up for itself while technically not zero, approach zero so closely you may as well use zero. Most annoying, being part of such a pathetic country. Since the Editor is not going to go to the mountain (i.e., give up India), the mountain (India) will have to come to him and start acting like an independent power.

0230 GMT March 1, 2012

North Korea agrees to halt N-program: Orbat.com says “booooorrrrrring” This game has been going on for two decades: DPRK promises to end its N-weapons program in return for aid; it gets aid in varying degree, and continues right on with the program, abusing and threatening the aid donors all the way through. So once again Pyongyang says it will halt in return for food aid. Now, admittedly, despite what the “experts” say, DPRK has no bombs and has staged no nuclear tests. But that isn’t the point. A deal is supposed to be a deal, and when one side is repeatedly proved to be a habitual liar, you stop making deals. Why exactly the US is again setting itself up to be kicked in the rear end – and paying DPRK for the privilege - is unclear to us. Masochism is the obvious answer, but how do we cure this American psychosis? Is there a drug for masochism?

India’s rail projects in the Northeast A beneficial fallout of China’s linking Lhasa by rail with the mainland is that India finally woke up and has started to undertake major rail projects in its Northeast region. These projects should have been undertaken in the 1960s following the Sino-Indian 1962 War, but fifty years on, better late than never. China has begun construction on an east-west railway that will extend from opposite Kathmandu (ad likely feature a Katmandu link) all the way through Nyingchi Prefecture to opposite the extreme tip of Northeast India. This will vastly improve Chinese strategic mobility within southeast Tibet.

India has undertaken on a national priority basis the conversion of a meter-gauge railroad along the north bank of the Bhramaputra River, from Rangia (opposite eastern Bhutan) to Murkongselek. The first part of the 510-km conversion will open in March, and the entire project will be done by 2014. The national priority means that funds are made available as needed and in required amount without further bureaucracy. This concept in itself is quite a marvel in India. Now, we’ve had trouble figuring what exactly this project entails because we are unfamiliar with the Brahmaputra valley and have yet to find a good map of the project, but it also involves construction of several north-south spurs to link strategic towns to the main line. One spur is a conversion to broad gauge of a line that supports Indian IV Corps. The line really needs to be extended to Pasighat and Tezu, about another 100-km or more – we don’t know if this is in the cards, but even as now under construction it links up the Indian Army’s major logistics bases in the north east.

Perhaps equally interesting, India is working to link up ALL Northeast capitals by rail. These are mainly north-south links, and are important from the Army’s viewpoint because they will permit support of the push to prevent the Chinese from outflanking India’s Himalayan defense lines by coming through northwest Burma. Of course, there are equally important civil development reasons for these new lines, not least being to provide a part of the country long isolated from the rest of India with transport links, significantly reducing travel times and reducing the enormous expense of goods transport.

Another major rail project is to connect Gangtok, Sikkim (Indian XXXIII Corps) to the West Bengal rail network. The first phase (Sevoke Road to Tangpo, broad gauge) is 53-km and will be ready in 2015. After that work will begin on a 40-km extension to Gangtok.

0230 GMT February 29, 2012

The item on Ireland contains a correction: earlier we had thought Ireland will have a referendum on staying in the Euro zone. Rather, the referendum will be on the new Euro fiscal treaty. Nonetheless, rejection could force Ireland to leave the Euro zone.

O Happy Day According to Wikileaks’s leaks of Stratfor e-mails, US has a secret indictment outstanding against Julian Assange. Of course, this assumes the e-mail is genuine. There’s ample reason for Assange and Co to fake such an email because he will use it to say he shouldn’t be extradited to Sweden because Sweden will extradite him to the US and he will be prosecuted. Assange has already produced an alleged Stratfor e-mail quoting someone who knows someone who knows someone else etc. who is a good friend of one of the women who has accused him of assault, and the woman has said no really he is a nice guy and none of this happened, this is just the Swedish prosecutor trying to make a name.

This raises the question of why the woman complained to the police in the first place, and what stops her from withdrawing her complaint of non-consensual sex. It also raises the question of why Assange is so afraid to go back to Sweden. The woman has to testify, and if she says nothing happened that’s the end of one case, at least.

We’re also suspicious of an alleged e-mail that says Sweden has agreed to hold Assange for extradition to the US. As far as we know, his leaking is NOT against Swedish law. Rather, its UK that has a view on leaking stolen secret documents that is closer to US law. We’re very curious if the US is determined to get Assange, why they haven’t asked UK to extradite him. After all, since the man has no plans to visit US, a secret indictment is no good unless he’s brought to the US.

What’s Biting Argentina? The country has been acting mighty peculiar with the British over the Falklands/Malvinas of late. First they say Prince William’s deployment to the Falklands is a provocation. Why? His SAR unit was sent there on a routine rotation; he’s said he wants to make the military a career, so it makes sense he’d go where his unit goes. Then Argentina is freaking out because a new make Royal Navy warship has been sent on patrol. The RN is replacing older ships with newer ships, and particularly with the newest ships you want to send them off to different corners of the world to make sure they’re up to snuff. Sooner or later you’ll get a new ship on the Falklands station, what is the big deal here? The Argentina accused Britain of sending a nuclear submarine to Falklands waters. Okay, Royal Navy submarines also deploy worldwide, and Argentina kind of ruined its case by saying it was HMS Vanguard, which is a strategic missile boat. Seeing as UK has just four of these, allowing only a minimum of one to be always on station, why would the British send off such a critical asset to the end of the world? And how did the Argentinians know it was Vanguard? If this is not enough, Argentina the other day stopped two Carnival cruise ships from docking because they had visited the Falklands and because Carnival is part owned by British investors.

This Carnival business is exceptionally silly. You expect people like Hugo Chavez to be off the wall. Why is Argentina whipping up needless hysteria? Does the Argentine president plan to declare herself Prez-for-Life or something equally stupid? Argentina is not a third world country where you can fool the masses by creating diversions. Or is it?

Uh Oh: Will the Irish pull the rug out from under the Euro? This is like one of those storms that suddenly blow up from a perfect summer day with not a cloud in the sky when you go outside. The Irish PM has said on legal advice he has to get Ireland’s accession to the Euro fiscal treaty approved by the people. The treat requires members to agree to tough deficit targets or face consequences, thus essentially surrendering control of their budgets to Brussels. The UK Telegraph says that while the three major Irish parties support the treaty, the peasants are against it and they are in a foul mood. Ireland’s exports have recovered from the country’s economic collapse, but house prices are still down 57% and M-1 money supply is down 9%. People are unhappy. Ireland, of course, stoically accepted its entire debt as its own fault, unlike Iceland that went “La la la can’t hear you” and defaulted, and unlike Greece which has also defaulted albeit in an organized way. If the Irish reject the fiscal treaty it will cut them off from a second bailout and lead to a possible withdrawal from the Euro zone. This might lead to other severely stressed countries doing the same. Ireland looks like it will need a second bailout above the first one of $116-billion because the economy is taking so long to recover.

Meanwhile, as expected the German parliament passed the Greek bail-out package, even though the Mighty Merkel had to rely on opposition votes as her party is revolting. The extra funds required for the EU firewall, however, are in big trouble in Berlin – also as expected.

Also meanwhile, Spain’s budget deficit has come in at 8.5% despite its every effort to cut spending, because the country is in a recession of large magnitude, created – surprise – by the deficit cuts at a time the global economy is weak. Spain is pleasing with Brussels that if it has to cut even more to meet the EuroKommisar set 4.4% deficit target the unemployment rate will go to 25%, and let’s face it folks, you can call that what you want as pleases you, but that’s a depression. If unemployment goes to 25%, people don’t have jobs to pay taxes and to buy stuff, so the economy will sink further. UK Telegraph says Spain’s pleas have been met by Brussels with a “stony response.” http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9112155/Irish-EU-treaty-vote-threatens-chaos.html

We think its time to ask if the EuroKomissars know what they are doing. That’s fine they have put the repayment of debt above everything else, but if these austerity measures are creating a downward spiral, they’re self-defeating. And it’s kind of silly to assume that the human beings who populate these states will continue passively accepting more and more oppressive economic measures.

“Harrison Bergeron” by Kurt Vonnegut is the short story we were thinking of yesterday when we spoke about the push by some in Montgomery County, Maryland against Gifted and Talented programs for school kids. Thanks to Eric Cox for the information.

0230 GMT February 28, 2012

Not tonight, dear, we have a headache So a 9-year old Yemen boy is brought by his American citizen grandparents to the US, to join his father and uncles who are resident here. In due time the Dad becomes a citizen and so does the boy. The boy grows up, marries a girl from Yemen, and has two kids. He applies to bring them here. Then State Department discovers it made an error in granting the boy citizenship because at the time it was given, the father had not fulfilled some stupid bureaucratic requirement. So State takes away the youngster’s citizenship (he’s now in his 20s), and says, neither you or your dad is to blame, it’s our mistake, but there’s nothing we can do about it. Since the youngster gave up his Yemeni citizenship, he is now a man without a country and has no legal status in this country. Meantime, somewhere around 11-million (some estimates give more) illegals thrive in America.

So Government of the United States gets a bright idea Since GUS is shifting to electronic payments for its benefit disbursements (10% of the cost of mailing a check and more secure), states who have claims against deadbeat dads can now take possession of their entire paycheck, and many plan to. Sounds reasonable: man was ordered to pay child support, didn’t, the state had to make up that money so that the child/mother did not suffer, further reaching into your pocket and mine. But in many of these cases the government check these men get is their sole income – disability and social security for example. So they will become destitute, and guess what: GUS and the States will have to look after them. Some of these cases involve men who could not pay child support because they went to jail or lost their jobs due to disablement and frequently the children are now adults. [We’re unable to understand why the states had to wait till e-checks were issued. Perhaps someone can explain this.]

So in Montgomery County, Maryland home to your Editor they are very proud of their educational system, and justifiably, because it’s one of the very best in the country. So they want to have to some standardized rules to label Gifted and Talented kids. But there is a whole strong lobby against this. Why? The lobby says when you label kids GT, this discriminates disproportionately against minority and kids who don’t have English as a first language. No one disputes that the tests to determine GT are given to all kids. By the logic of this lobby, honors classes should not be offered because – needless to say – white and Asian kids are disproportionately represented in the county’s honors classes. So either we offer GT/Honors to all, in which case they won’t be GT/Honors but everyday classes which will have to be dumbed down so that everyone can get through (No Child Left Behind, remember?). We thought in America you could advance as far as your ability permits. We didn’t know that those more academically able must be denied opportunities because this discriminates against the less gifted. Take this one step further: kids who are physically gifted and get slotted for school teams and so on, are being favored at the expense of nerds. Issac Asimov – we think – had a story on an America where by law everyone was equal. So the strong were weighed down by chains, the brainy had attachments fitted to their heads that prevented concentration and so on. And since we refused to develop our own extra-smart kids, we can always import them from India and China.

A high US official says this is no time to go wobbly on Afghanistan: we must make sure Al Qaeda does not regroup. Is spending $100-billion a year to prevent AQ from regrouping in Afghanistan sensible? Particularly since AQ is already spreading in Somalia, the Sahel, and Yemen. And fighting AQ in Afghanistan/Pakistan requires just a few hundred personnel. The reason we have over 100,000 troops there is we’re fighting the Taliban. Looks to us the official is getting confused as to the Afghanistan mission. No need to worry – Washington has been confused from Day 8. Up to Day 8 we were very clear: we wanted revenge on those harboring Osama Bin Laden. After that we’ve gone a bit fuzzy wuzzy.

So last year someone in Pakistan dumped several hundred Korans in a sewage drain in Pakistan according to a story making the round of blogs, with accompanying video. Some Samaritan fished them out of the poop and cleaned them best he could. So people are asking: where’s the outrage? Where’s the rioting? Where’s the executions and suicide bombings? Tut tut. Be serious people. Obviously there’s a double standard here. Why are we taking Afghan outrage seriously? That’s why the president should not have apologized. It changes nothing, it signals weakness, and it gets people working on arranging the next provocation. Remember what Winnie Churchill said was his guide in life? Never explain, never apologize.

So in Boston three ladies who identify themselves as lesbians beat up a man on the Boston metro (the T, technically) because he did something with his backpack that annoyed them – we’re not sure exactly what, but there was physical contact of some sort. The man identifies himself as a homosexual, and says the women used homophobic slurs while they were beating him up. The police arrested the women for the usual assault and battery plus hate crime. Until now you can afford to be skeptical, because – as the women say – how were they to know the man was homosexual. Charge us with assault and battery; we admit we attacked him, where does the hate crime come in? But then they ruin it for themselves by saying since they’re lesbians, they cannot be guilty of a hate crime based on the victim’s sexual orientation. How does this follow? We are reminded of a dear friend of ours, who informed us that we can never be guilty of color discrimination because we – the Editor – is a person of color. This left us mildly agape, because dear friend is from India, and all Indians are people of color by the nitwit definitions of the day, and you will not find a people more color conscious and racist in the world – and Indians are honest enough to admit to this fault. And the racism of American blacks toward other people of color, including African blacks, is hardly a secret.

So remember our Prez nixed the Keystone XL Pipeline sending the matter back for yet another environmental review? Well, Keystone says it is resubmitting its request for a license, and meanwhile, it is going to complete the southern part of the people, from Cushing, OK to the Gulf. So the white House says “Terrific idea, you know there’s an excess of crude up there (that’s because of the new discoveries) and this will help the crude get to refineries on the Gulf Coast. We are delighted Keystone will build this part of the pipeline.” Please don’t ask us to parse this tonight, because really, dear, we have a headache.

0230 GMT February 27, 2012

Letter from S. Jordan What do you think about the theory that given how close the US Ambassador to Afghanistan and the CIA Director are, that the Ambassador deliberately sent it via CIA channels, not because his channels are insecure, but because he arranged with the CIA Director to leak the cable?

Truthfully, to give a meaningful answer to that question we’d have to be sitting in on the conversations between the two gentlemen. Now, while it is true Editor has no life, even if magically given the opportunity to be present, he can think of nothing more boring and more necessary to Give The Avoid (to use an Indian expression). Here you have two bureaucrats, and given the dynamics of the tribe, it’s safe to assume that 90% of their time goes in bureaucratic games and perhaps 10% in combatting America’s enemies. No personal reflection on them, that’s just the reality of their jobs.

The first question to be asked is what do they gain by leaking the cable? We have seen speculation saying that both are opposed to President Obama’s withdrawal plans and are trying to sabotage them. Okay, but how does the cable sabotage the Prez’s plans? Surely the gentlemen don’t think leakage will, for example, get the Prez to attack Taliban sanctuaries in Pakistan. It’s widely accepted that the US has at long last understood Pakistan will do nothing more to help the US than it already has, and that while Pakistan has reluctantly accepted the drone war, that is cooperation by inaction, not cooperation by actively doing something.

(Incidentally, as for the theory Pakistan helps the US with finding targets for the drones, please, people, why are you forcing us to believe in the Tooth Fairy? Except for targeting insurgents who the Pakistanis want to get rid of, Pakistan does NOT help the US. It is not-so-subtly using the US to do its dirty work, and protecting its vital assets from US strikes as much as possible. US, of course, has many resources that do not rely on Pakistan government cooperation. Which is why you see people important to Pakistan getting whacked every now and then.)

Realistically, how is US going to destroy – for example – the Haqqani insurgent groups. Send in the B-1s, B-2s, and B-52s and cruise missiles? Air power is a vital adjunct to land power, so not only will we be declaring war on Pakistan, we will not achieve much. Send in US troops a la Cambodia and Laos during Second Indochina? You don’t need much imagination to figure out how that will play in the region. At a time President Obama has promised the American people we are getting out, expanding the war may well prove the trigger for an active revolt at home, and even the two gentlemen must appreciate you can’t fight any war without the support – active or tacit – of your own people.

Okay, so what about the theory that by saying the Taliban’s sanctuaries in Pakistan are undoing the gains of US forces, the two gentlemen want a slowdown of US withdrawal? This gets tricky. Objectively, as anyone on the ground in Afghanistan will tell you, we are not winning this war even with the surge. Do the two gentlemen really believe that the war was being won and can continue to be won if the withdrawal is slowed or reversed? That’s the tricky part: they may well believe it. After all, this mess has been going on for ten years and without fail glowing reports of successes arrive, no matter who is in charge. If they do believe it, however, while this may explain the leaked cable, they are out of luck for three reasons.

One, by and large the Taliban has been laying low on the assumption US/NATO are withdrawing. If US should reverse course, the Taliban – and Pakistan – are going to react by stepping up their insurgency, so any gains achieved by staying on will be neutralized. Two, the rest of the coalition has clearly said except for training it is going home. The other NATO countries have little choice, because the war is very deeply unpopular in their home countries. Extending the war may well mean US will be fighting alone, and then the political cover/advantage of saying we’re part of a coalition slips away. It becomes an American war even more than it already is. Three, as we’ve said, the American people will not accept an indefinite extension of the war. So whatever it is the two gents may have in mind, we think it’s very doubtful they will succeed. Also please to remember there are a great many factions in the Administration that are convinced we must get out. If they start believing the two gents are trying to undercut the Prez, there is going to be major pushback which will mean unhappy endings for the two gents. Given they are exceptionally experienced bureaucrats, presumably they understand this and will not take positions that have limited chance of succeeding.

Okay, so what about the thesis that the two gents have a strictly limited objective, which is the war should not be seen to be lost on their watch? This is particularly said about the CIA Director, who is said to harbor political ambitions. Well, we are engaged in this discussion most reluctantly to begin with, because we started by saying that the motives of the two gents – assuming this is all a deliberate plan to leak the cable – are booooooorrrrrring. When we get to the stage of the theory they don’t want the war lost at a time they can be blamed for losing it, then we are getting into the realm of the very, very, very boooooorrrrring. There are more interesting ways to spend one’s life, such as watching the house electricity meter rotate.

Nonetheless, to be fair to the two gents, we at least don’t see anyone blaming them for losing the war. We don’t know the US Ambassador’s position, but the CIA Director, when he was in the military, made it clear that he wanted to stay the course, and if the course meant 2024 or beyond, that was fine. He and his have already made clear any number of times they think the withdrawal is reckless. So where’s the blame?

From Chris Raggio Read your post about the leaked cable. I agree with everything you said. The reason they won't be looking to prosecute anyone is because the MSM published the leak. The MSM can get away with this because they cloak themselves in the 1st amendment. But the the 1st amendment applies to everyone right? Not really. The MSM likes to think of themselves as sort of super special, above everyone else even the government. They use terms like the "fourth estate." So when they publish a leaked cable they effectively declassify it with the act of publication. From that point on the information is in the public domain.

I hate this situation because it has created a double standard. It is legal for an Editor of the NYT or WP to steal classified information and publish into the public domain. They may even get a Pulitzer out of it. They get to make decisions that only a head of state should be able to make and yet they themselves do not possess security clearances of any kind.

Try to imagine that someone sent you that same classified diplomatic cable and then you posted that cable verbatim on your blog. Do you think you would get the same special treatment that the "newspaper of record" would get?

0230 GMT February 26, 2012

So the head US honcho in Kabul sends a cable back home saying that the Taliban sanctuaries in Pakistan are creating problems for US/NATO’s efforts to fight the Taliban. Give the gentleman a cookie for figuring this out, ten years on. But then for America’s war leaders, every day dawns fresh with no history and no connection to the past, leaving them free to discover the obvious again, and again, and again. Sort of like an extended Groundhog Day with different US officials playing Bill Murray. And also then America’s war leaders are never held to account by the people, who believe if they close their eyes tightly and cover their ears, America at war in its eleventh year is not happening.

But enough of the ranting – we too are getting quite Groundhogish, because we too keep saying the same thing again and again. Rather, the point of this item was to say that the Head Honcho didn’t trust his usual state Department communications, so he sent the report through the CIA channels for security.

So naturally the contents of the cable are disclosed by the Main Stream Media. Are CIA communications so insecure that the deepest thoughts of the US ambassador to Afghanistan are immediately, magically revealed to the world? No, of course not. The cable was leaked, deliberately, by someone seeking to buttress their position. Who and what position? Honestly, neither do we care nor is it relevant to our argument.

Our argument is that when the pathetic moron known as Bradley Manning, US Army, leaks classified documents, he is all neatly dressed up and prepared for a lynching. We are all for lynching him. Sixty years at Leavenworth is a good sentence, we think, though regrettably he’ll probably get away with a third that. But what we’d like to know, where is the investigation as to who leaked a CIA transmitted cable? Who has been suspended from their job while the investigation is underway? And who will be put on trial the way Bradley The Pathetic Moron Manning has been put on trial?

Still further, the US is – justifiably, we feel – after the sorry butt of one Julian Assange, who is as welcome as doggy doo on the sole of your boot and considerably less attractive. When the US gets its mitts on the man, he will be prosecuted for receiving and disseminating classified material. We fervently hope he gets his just desserts. So may we assume the US media will be subject to the same sanctions as Wikileaks? After all, the Kabul cable really is secret, enough so the US Ambassador sent it via the CIA. The Wikileaks documents are all low-level State Department cables.

But, someone will say, the MSM is not reproducing the text of the cable. Oh, so it’s okay to provide secret information to the press in pursuit of someone’s personal agenda, and for the MSM to publish, as long as it’s in paraphrase and not in original form? Since when?

Nothing illustrates better the dysfunction of America’s war effort than the leakage of this cable. It would seem those responsible for the war have no respect for the government of the United States, nor any qualms about violating regulations, nor the simple sense of duty we have a right to expect from employees of the Republic. What is truly scary is that the press, as far as we have seen, has raised no questions about how the contents of the cable arrived in its hands, and has carried the story without a moment’s thought as if it is has a right to publish stolen, highly classified information. The person who leaked the cable is no better than Bradley Manning, and the media no better than Wikileaks. To hunt down and crucify Manning and Assange while the media does not even understand what a crime it has committed reeks of high hypocrisy. It speaks of situational ethics used by people who have clearly violated US law. It exemplifies the moral degeneracy of this nation. And it undercuts the legitimacy of American law and morality, which is the foundation of the nation state.

0230 GMT February 25, 2012

More about Greece Readers are aware that private holders of Greek bonds will have to take a 70% loss on their bonds as part of the EU bailout. New York Times explains the private bond holders have little choice. The bonds were issued under Greek law, and the Greek parliament can change Greek law. So the private bond holders can sue. But they have little chance of success. The case of Argentina is instructive: ten years after the 2002 Argentine bond default, those bond-holders who chose to sue have received nothing. And those bonds were governed by foreign law and could not be unilaterally repudiated by Argentina. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/25/business/global/as-greek-restructuring-looms-bondholders-think-twice-about-other-sovereign-debt.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&hp

So here’s something interesting: 97% of the bonds issued by Spain, Italy, Portugal and Belgium are issued under local law. While Spain and Italy continue to enjoy access to the international bond market, at rates well down from their crisis peak, if things get difficult, one has to assume a lot of people in those countries will be pondering if default should be an option.

To willingly teach in American lower-middle and lower income urban schools requires one to have so acute a diminished brain capacity that one should not be held legally responsible for one’s actions. One could easily qualify for permanent disability. When the Social Security Administration office asks what is your disability, you would only have to produce a paystub showing you teach in such a school, and the SSA would immediately start paying you disability checks.

Editor freely admits he got into teaching by accident and has stayed in because of desperation. Arriving back in America in his late 40s after 23 years overseas, the only job he was qualified for was think tanks, and after a short while it became painfully apparent that, for various reasons, no think tanks was going to hire him. After a stint at the May Company, where he hoped his genius would be recognized and he would get a job appropriate to his training and skills, he got a job as school secretary of his son’s parochial school, and that was the start of his second life.

Regarding the May Company. It is an American tenet that if you work hard you will succeed. Well, at the May Company Editor, within a month of joining as a lowly warehouse worker, submitted approximately 60 productivity improvement suggestions. This should have gotten the company to take notice. Instead, the top warehouse management appropriated the ideas as their own without even saying thank you to Editor. Then in another department, where Editor was working as a lowly clerical – a promotion from the warehouse, just not the sort of promotion one would have hoped for, he proposed a plan for the May Company to expand into India (which was just opening up to foreign investment) without spending a dollar of its own money. The CEO of Hechts (owned by May), outraged a clerical had dared sully his pristine mail box with any document, reamed out the Editor’s boss’s boss’s boss (that’s how low the Editor ranked) for her failure to control her workers. Then Editor was asked by his buyer to resolve a mystery where his buyer was being charged twice for the same goods. Within seven days, working for just an hour a day on this project, Editor uncovered a major fraud at the company. He was called in by the auditor and humbly waited for his due reward, which he hoped with at least a junior executive’s position. Instead the auditor told him: “I asked for you to be assigned to my office, but I was refused. What you don’t know is the fraud you uncovered is being run by a vice-president who is related to the CEO. You have been officially labeled as big trouble. Sorry about that.”

Anyway, in the school field Editor did work his way up: from school secretary to assistant administrator to computer teacher to math teacher, the last at a very nice Catholic school. Then Mrs. R. IV, who worked in the county school system, began complaining to Editor’s parents that he didn’t have a real job.

So Editor went part-time at his school to get certification so he could work in the public schools, something he really did not want to do. He was lucky to get a public school job, albeit at the school from heck, and he adjusted, till his new principal decided the school was failing because of the old (as in age) teachers and Editor left when all the oldies were being fired to the left and the right, and he became the next oldest in the school. So, no jobs were available in other counties, so Editor started subbing waiting for a job. Year-and-a-half-later he is still waiting.

Well, subbing is not a particularly pleasant way to live, and it pays pathetically: $110/day after taxes to be precise. The people who do best at subbing are the veteran battle-axes, who can subdue a class of unruly kids with a few snarls and can evoke at will smoke, fire, and brimstone. These teachers really, really, really hate the kids, and their level of aggression is so high that the kids are truly scared. Editor can’t manage that.

So, of course in time one learns which teachers one should avoid subbing for because they have out of control kids, but often one doesn’t have the luxury of refusing a job because there might not be another one that day. And sometimes Editor takes classes for a teacher who he likes and who asks him out of desperation because no one else wants to sub.

The other day the Editor was in one such class. Nine of the 24 kids strolled in late, even though it was after lunch, and once the class was present, twenty kids decided they didn’t need to do any work. Not just because it was a sub, they don’t work for their regular teacher either. But four kids did work.

And it’s kids like one of the four that against all odds lead teachers to say: “I still plan to quit as soon as I can get another job - but I’m not going to quit today. “ (Half of all teachers quit in five years, and the day before Editor’s co-teacher actually walked out of class mid-way, and when he saw her the next day she said “I’m quitting”.)

Back to this kid in this 9^th Grade class. Like most of the others in the class, he is Hispanic. He doesn’t speak English well, and his spelling is weak. But for 80-minutes he sat there without getting up or looking to the left or right, ferociously determined to get through his worksheet, which was questions on Shakespeare to be answered while watching “Shakespeare in Love”. Editor was supposed to go over the worksheet, basically providing them all the answers so they could pass, and of course, half the class STILL could not be bothered to even write down the answers as given (Your tax dollars at work). So the answer to one question was “Elizabeth I was called the Virgin Queen”.

This youngster told Editor in broken English “And her sister was Bloody Mary, and she was Catholic, and she was hated because in those days in Europe religion was a very big thing.” Editor was truly taken aback because students today, even in good schools, know so little if it is not immediately part of the curriculum. So Editor told him that before Bloody Mary there was their brother, Edward, who died as a boy. Now, not only did this youngster know about Bloody Mary, he also knew there have been many Edwards, because he furrowed his brow and asked “Edward I?” When Editor told him it was Edward VI, he went “Oh”, and you could see on his face this random fact absorbed and glued into his mind from now on. And that’s how people learn, of course: they link each fact to another, so that learning leads to more learning. This kid is a natural learner, wants to learn more, and is a hard worker. This kid will go on to college, along with the sole Anglo kid in the class, along with an African-American boy and a Hispanic girl, all three of whom also focused on their work. The other 20? They’ll be lucky to get jobs in Burger King

Meanwhile the other kids, who were busy chatting and playing with their electronics, heard him say “Bloody Mary”. This raised a tittering in the class “He he he, he said Bloody Mary, Bloody Mary, vodka and tomato juice.” Ninth graders, they don’t know Elizabeth I was the Virgin Queen though they’ve done English history in middle school, but they know about vodka and tomato juice.

It’s this sort of chance experience that keeps teachers going It also shows that poverty never has anything to do with willingness to learn and success at school – anyone from a 3^rd world country knows that because the poor in these countries are absolutely determined their children will do better than themselves, and the convey to their children the importance of an education. It also shows why it’s so futile to blame teachers for classroom failure. Editor had zero control on kids walking in as they wanted, and as for the not paying attention and yakking, all he can do is to write referrals. A process so lengthy and convoluted it takes time, during which time the class knows the teacher is not watching and gets wilder. And of course you have the kid-hating teachers whose classrooms feature pin-drop silence – and the kids are still refusing to do any work. Because ultimately it goes back to the parent’s expectations. Editor has seen poor single mothers so tough on their kids that you just have to threaten to call Mom, and the kid starts shaking. But see, those are the kids who come to school on time, have their books and paper and pencils, and who do their work – because they know there will be consequences at home if they don’t.

After 16 years in K-12 education in America, Editor has come to one conclusion. If the country wants to improve the educational system, K-12 schooling cannot be free. Any good that is free is misused – Econ 101. Of course, K-12 is not really free – even the very poorest parents are paying sales tax, and via their rent or mortgage paying property taxes, both of which are used to pay for schools. But the parents don’t have to write a check every month, which is why so many of them impose no consequences on their kids who basically verbally fart their way through school.

Free schooling is a basic doctrine for liberals and conservatives alike. Schooling is what we require because we need good citizens and trained workers. (And of course we need a way to keep our kids off the streets while we’re at work, but let’s not start that). But for whatever reason, the free model with its zero consequences is not working. America is wasting a colossal amount of money on K-12, and getting such shockingly pathetic results that anyone familiar with American school standings on an international scale has to be ashamed of himself or herself.

However you design the system of school fees, parents have to reach into their wallet and pay. And of course, formal school should end at 10^th Grade, so that continuing is from choice. And education for a profession should start in 9^th Grade. It may sound very democratic to say “Everyone must go to college”. First, that is a load of bull manure. Most jobs do not require a college education. Second, when everyone goes to college, instead of having school drop-outs flipping burgers you’ll have college graduates flipping burgers. Simply having everyone with a college degree does not expand the job pool by one job. Except for college professors, of course. But these are separate matters.

In the meanwhile, America, good luck with your schools Editor does not pray, with one exception. Every night he goes to bed saying “Lord, may tomorrow be the day I get a job so I don’t have to teach America’s kids. Lord, I have done my part in repaying America for all the aid it gave India, by spending sixteen 16 years educating its kids. Lord, stop with this Job act already or else I will have to kick your skinny butt from one end of heaven to the other and back again. I want my due reward, and I want it now, not after I die, what do you think, I’m stoopid or something? Are you listening, Lord? Don’t make me come up there.”

0230 GMT February 24, 2012

· The President and gas prices It’s unclear to us what any president can do about gas prices, for all that Americans are crying like small kids: “I have a booboo and I want you to kiss and make it all right.” Within the reality of a cartelized production market, gasoline prices are set by supply and demand. To reduce gasoline prices, demand has to be reduced or supply has to be increased. But when the prez tries to reduce demand by substitution, he gets clobbered for trying to pick winners and loser (solar, electric cars). That’s by the right wing. When he tries to increase supply, he gets clobbered for pushing “dirty” oil, gas, and nuclear. That’s by the left wing.

· Meanwhile, Editor for one is highly unsympathetic to complaints about rising gasoline prices. To begin with, Americans are NOT paying $4/gallon for gas. They are paying $6/gallon or more once you factor in the cost of keeping oil routes open and crude producers happy. Because the extra $2+/gallon is paid from the general taxes that go for defense/foreign affairs/foreign aid/intelligence, Americans don’t see them. If a good is priced at less than cost, it will be wasted. Americans are Number One gasoline wasters in the world because they insist (a) on driving big vehicles; and (b) living in big houses which means a constant growth of the suburbs and exurbs, requiring more driving.

· It’s well past time Americans grew up and understood they cannot have everything. You’re worried about gas prices? Sell your house in the exurbs and move back into the city. But cities are not safe and the houses are tiny and the schools are lousy. Then stay where you are and pay more for your weekly gas bill. Don’t want to do that? Then stop getting in the way of new hydrocarbon production? Don’t want that? Then accept alternatives like cars that give 50-miles/gallon. But how will the kids with all their sports equipment fit into a Fiat 500? Forget the sports and keep the kids at home. But how can we do that, they have to play sports and we have to have to trucks to haul our stuff around and how can we commute 100-miles a day in a Fiat 500 without getting hemorrhoids and a bad back? Okay, move back to the city.

· You will say: “Editor, you’re just jealous because you can’t afford better than a 1-liter car and have to live on one-seventh of an acre.” You are so right, Editor is jealous. But you don’t hear him complain about gas prices. His gasoline bill at the current $4/gallon is $65/month. True, he accepts work only within a 10-mile radius and goes no where because he has no life. But what did we just say about Americans have to grow up and realize they can’t have everything they want? You have to make compromises. And what if gasoline goes to $6/gallon? Editor is slowly saving for a motor scooter. They give 90-miles/gallon. Suggest dear readers start doing the same. If you’re worried about hemorrhoids from a Fiat 500, imagine the fun you’ll have making your 100-mile daily commute on a motor scooter. Hahahahaha. (Sorry, that was ungracious but Editor couldn’t help it.)

· So the 1^st Hubby of Finland was caught gazing at the – er – bosom of his state dinner partner, Princes Mary of Denmark. We’re not sure this rises to the standard of a scandal or even lewd behavior. The man is 63, after all, and as a senior citizen himself the Editor can testify that at that age all one can do is look. And Princess Mary was dressed in a dress with a rather – er – plunging neckline. Plus she was wearing enough jewels around her neck to pay off the US national debt, so Editor is for giving him the benefit of the doubt as to what precisely he might have been looking at.

· But here are some letters to the UK Telegraph http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/finland/9097513/First-Man-of-Finland-caught-gawping-at-Danish-princesss-breasts.html

· “Well at least he and Sarkozy were eyeing the opposite sex. Such a rarity in the 21^st Century world”.

· “The protocol is tricky. It's admissible to look but not to stare. What the experts can't agree on is the point at which a look becomes a stare. Perhaps the government could appoint a quango (Editor’s note: a British quasi-autonomous non-governmental organization) of highly paid time servers who have lost their parliamentary seats to regulate the matter. Female décolleté to descend to a point no further than 5 cm north of the nearest nipple; Male observance of the phenomenon to last no more than 1.5 seconds in good light.”

· “Let him who is without sin cast the first stone.”

· “Okay, you stand still and we’ll throw stones.”

· “I was in a restaurant once and a pretty girl with a great figure (on display) walked in. I looked once and decided not to even glance again as my girlfriend is very jealous. Within minutes my girlfriend stopped talking and turned moody. This got worse as the night went on. Eventually she accused me of "trying not to look at the women on the next table".”

· Mrs. R. IV used to accuse Editor of looking at women from the corner of his eye. This invariably outraged Editor so much that never once in 32 years did he remember to point out he wears thick specs. Looking at anything from the corner of his eye means seeing a blur.

· The truth is women check out men just as much as vice-versa. But they are more subtle about it. Your date will appear to be gazing deeply into your eyes while she will be examining every male of interest within a 90-degree field of vision. You will never know. Men are such pathetic fools.

0230 GMT February 23, 2012

Shocking News: Latest IAEA Mission to Iran Fails Teheran refused to provide the IAEA with data or access relating to facilities the IAEA wanted to inspect. Imagine that.

The Koran Burning Among material sent to the Bagram incinerators were some Korans – or one Koran, who knows – from the prison library. The Koran(s) were discarded because of escape plans written in them. Local workers retrieved at least one Koran, partially burned, from the incinerators and the trouble started. US rushed to utter a thousand mea culpas and a thousand apologies.

So who wants to bet that the Korans put in the incinerator were placed there by Afghans? Sure they were ordered for disposal by some NATO official. But the actual burning was likely done by local employees. Anyone with half a brain would have admitted neither culpability nor issued an apology. At most they should have said: “We have no clue how the Korans got there.” End of the matter.

We find highly suspicious that a damaged Koran was retrieved from an incinerator. Bagram is a giant installation and we assume it has industrial strength incinerators. Once a load of waste is inside an incinerator, what comes out is ash. NATO should have said it is investigating if the Koran was burnt by an Afghan employee trying to discredit NATO.

We repeat what we said yesterday: the fundamental problem is that there are Korans given to prisoners. Take them all away, and the issue of handling Korans by non-Muslims ends.

We learn from the UK Economist that under the Obama healthcare plan “Next year the number of federally mandated categories of illness and injury for which hospitals may claim reimbursement will rise from 18,000 to 140,000. There are nine codes relating to injuries caused by parrots, and three relating to burns from flaming water-skis.” http://www.economist.com/node/21547789

Editor immediately dashed off a letter to the Prez, listing his serious objection that the bill leaves out the category of injuries caused by parrots skiing on flaming water. This is clearly discriminatory.

More seriously, before we make our comments, Editor needs to state that he accepts the need to provide those who cannot afford health insurance with coverage. He diverges from the Obama plan on two grounds. First, it requires no high IQ – at least no higher than 60 – to foresee that health care costs will go up rather than remain constant. In other words, you cannot pay for the Obama plan from savings gained by allegedly providing more efficient care. Second, we are unclear on what is the moral basis to provide everyone the best possible health care.

Healthcare is very important, but so are food, shelter, and a good education. If we say everyone deserves the best healthcare, then equally, everyone deserves the best food, shelter, and education. If the state must provide everyone the best healthcare, then morally it must do the same for these other categories of goods and services. Other important requirements follow. For example, does not every child have the right to have one parent at home and a mother and a father? So clearly the government needs to subsidize parents who elect to stay at home to raise their children, and subsidize two-parent families. The best possible internet connection speeds are critical to our economy, so the government needs to subsidize 1-gigabit connections for everyone. Life is precious, so we must all have the safest possible cars, and obviously the government must subsidize the safest cars for those who can’t afford them.

The reality is that in America we provide minimum food security – and it really is minimum considering what food costs today. We provide minimum public school education for everyone; and there is no right to a minimum higher education. We don’t really care all that much what kind of housing people have, and often we don’t care if they have any housing at all. So given that the country is not infinitely rich, it follows that those without health care must be given a basic health plan. And if there is to be healthcare reform, can we stop already with the parrots and the flaming water-skis, please? Only in America do they call this reform. In other countries they call this a bureaucratic atrocity.

0230 GMT February 22, 2012

Greece Gets Bailout/Nothing Settled Take your choice of headline. The orthodox line you’ll see in the media is Greece gets its second bailout, all is well. But actually nothing is settled.

First, Greece has to agree to terms so onerous that while the current interim government will sign – the bailout was announced after the government gave in – there is no assurance follow-up Greek governments will agree. Look at the terms and make your own judgment if the agreement will be honored: (a) Eurozone experts will permanently monitor Greece's economic management; (b) a constitutional change will give priority to debt repayments over the funding of government services (both terms quoted from the BBC); and (c) any future private debt will come second in line for repayment, after the Euro loans – this means no private party in their right mind will buy Greek bonds. Point (b) means the Greek government will lose control of its budget. Revenues will go into an account controlled by the EuroKomissars. They will first pay interest and installments on the loans and then the Greek government can have the rest of the money.

Second, the UK Financial Times quotes internal Euro documents to say this bailout is not going to achieve its objectives. The report is at http://www.scribd.com/doc/82248091/Greek-Sustainability-Report and frankly is not worth reading because its full of lawyer-like talk. At http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/02/21/888981/get-greece-out/ you can read the FT’s analysis. It says according to the report, if Greece doesn’t follow through on the restructuring mandated by the bail-out terms, it debt in 2020 will be 160% of GDP and it will need another bailout of about $150-billion.

Third, all of this assumes that Greece is going to grow. But if the past is a guide – and as also seen in Italy and Spain – the austerity measures are pushing these countries into an ever deeper recession. Already an incredible one-third of the Greek population has fallen below the poverty line, unemployment is above 20% (which was the maximum during the US depression), and for people under 25, unemployment is at an unbelievable 45%. Now, maybe the EuroKommisars truly believe that the Greek people are just going to sit there and swallow their medicine on the promise that ten years from now things will be better, but this is not something to be counted on.

The latest Koran incident in Afghanistan We have two questions. Which senile blithering idiots decided to give Afghan prisoners Korans in the first place? Do Christian prisoners in Afghanistan get Bibles? We don’t think so, because the Taliban believes mere possession of a Bible is punishable by on the sport execution. There is constant trouble with the prisoners and Korans. If prisoners in US jails were all the time watching to see if the warders “insulted” their Bibles by not treating the books right – right as defined by the prisoners, and then creating major ruckuses – does anyone think they would be allowed to keep their books?

Two, after the decision was taken to burn the Korans because prisoners were writing on them to communicate escape plans, who are the senile blithering idiots who released this information to the world? Why is this being discussed? Does the US military not see the irony of the way the Taliban prisoners are treated and the enormous sensitivity with which their Korans are treated?

We are not criticizing the brutal treatment of Taliban prisoners. As far as we are concerned, they shouldn’t have been taken prisoner in the first place. And if Americans are so quaveringly sensitive they cannot execute insurgents captured on the battlefield, Americans should just get out of the CI business and go home. We had no problem making sure the fewest number of Japanese were taken alive, and we had no problem shooting German prisoners – oh yes we did do that, and it’s time we faced up to it. And those folks were in uniform and entitled to the laws of war. And we had no problem shooting VC/NVA wounded so that we didn’t have to deal with them as prisoners (the VC/NVA in their turn very rarely took Americans alive).

And what is this business of we are so great we don’t desecrate enemy dead? This is routine in war. Either don’t send these kids to war in the first place, by all means let us become a nation of pacifists, or if you’re going to fight, accept the reality of war and stop trying to pretend we are so superior.

If there is anyone who desecrated the Korans in this case, it is the prisoners. Using the books to write escape plans is, according to us, a desecration. Maybe the Americans need to stage mob scenes and riot and burn a few of the guilty prisoners. After all, we’re so great we respect Korans more than we do the Bible. Are we going to let these Taliban who have insulted their Korans get away with it?

0230 GMT February 21, 2012

Russians say they have grown flowers from 32,000-year old seeds The seeds were in squirrel burrows that got sealed by mud and remained under the permafrost at a temperature of -7C from the time of the woolly mammoth. Other researchers are skeptical because the oldest proven case is date palms from the Jewish fortress of Masada, 2000 years ago. No older case has proved to be true. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/21/science/new-life-from-an-arctic-flower-that-died-32000-years-ago.html?_r=1&hp

Teacher pay: this is not really news The Washington Post Sunday Magazine for February 19, 2012, says that a master’s degree for teachers gives the second lowest annual income of any master’s degree. The lowest is for a liberal arts masters. The news is no surprise, but oddly – at least from the research Editor has done for papers for MBA classes, there is little evidence the lack of money is the main reason for teacher’s leaving the profession. The turnover is phenomenal: 50% of teachers quit within five years, and a 100% turnover in urban schools districts is common. But while teachers say more money would be nice, teaching conditions – including administration – is what bothers them more.

Microbes found 2-meters under Atacama desert As explained by the New Scientist http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn21497-underground-oasis-found-below-earths-driest-desert.html this Chile desert is often used as an analog for Mars because it is cold and rain falls only a few times in a century. So the discovery of microbes gives fresh impetus to Mars researchers and their ExoMars probe. Of course, with President Obama having decided to cripple the Mars program at its height of success, its not clear if the Euros will get the ExoMars off as planned – NASA has (had) part of that mission.

The sooner America accepts it is rapidly becoming a 3^rd World country in many respects the sooner we can rebuild this country. One of our 3^rd worldisms is that we’ve let the icebreaker fleet run down without replacement. So guess who is going to be left out in the race to explore the warming Arctic. A very general article on this problem can be found at http://io9.com/5873385/shortage-of-icebreaker-ships-could-lose-us-the-race-to-explore-the-antarctic This past winter we had to rely on a Russian icebreaker to get fuel to an Alaska community. When was the last time we had to rely on a foreign power to do something as basic as deliver fuel? We doubt this troubled many because, after all, we depend on the Russians to fly our astronauts to the International Space Station. And we call ourselves the world’s sole superpower? Cue the massed mocking laughter, please.

The biggest problem to America’s revival, in the Editor’s opinion, is our refusal to accept we’re sinking. We’re still coasting off past glory. There is nothing wrong with our sinking. The world is a dynamic place, always has been. Countries rise and they fall. Before the industrial revolution, for example, say around 1700, the economic superpowers were China and India. India had a population of perhaps 200-million. China possibly more. Since economic production was limited to what could be made by a pair of hands and a pair of legs, obviously these two countries left everyone else in the dust. But two hundred years later these two were among the poorest countries in the world. New economic powers rose, all in the West and Japan. Now, also obviously it was just a matter of time before countries like China and India, and new arrivals like Brazil, also industrialized to the point their GDP started to climb. Because they started from such a low base, they are going to grow very fast. Because of their populations, they are going to have whacking great GDPs before their growth levels out to the 2% typical of the west.

Meanwhile, the country that once ruled half the Earth, England, has become insignificant. The Spanish and French empires have vanished. The Russian empire is now a dream of the past. It is but natural that America should grow complacent, hedonistic, and fat (literally, too). Our standing around and screaming “we are great” reminds of Rome after the Germans slaughtered the invincible Roman legions. Yes, we remain number one at the business of killing – that is our peculiar genius, and realistically, Editor at least does not see America losing its number one position in the war game in the 21^st century. But in everything else – health, education, infrastructure, GDP per capita – we are falling behind.

One hopes what is unique about America is that we will rebuild and resurge. Americans are great believers in second and third and fourth acts. So why can we not have a national second act, a new American Century in the 22^nd Century?

But of course, for recovery we have to admit there is a problem – and a very big problem because almost nothing we do will work if this country is to rise again. That includes the way we do politics, by the way.

Editor suspects one reason we haven’t yet got a national consensus that we are in very big trouble is that it is still summertime in America, and most of us are still living easy. They say for a drug addict or an alcoholic you have to fall so far that one day something happens and you pick yourself up off the floor and stare at yourself in the mirror, and you don’t recognize who that person is, and you are so revolted you get up determined you are going to become the person you always believed you were capable of being.

Editor’s wishing wont make that moment come any sooner, but still, he can’t help wondering why we as a nation don’t see there are so many straws in the wind signaling decline that we have innumerable haystacks flying about and clobbering us. The icebreaker thing is only a straw. By itself it’s not important. By themselves, the students who refused to work in Editor’s Friday classes are not important. Add it all up, and it don’t look good, babe.

0230 GMT February 20, 2012

Greece: at last you have it if UK Telegraph is correct, the German Finance Ministry, at least, is fully facing up to the Greece situation. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9091021/Germany-drawing-up-plans-for-Greece-to-leave-the-euro.html

Point the First: even if Greece does everything the EuroKomissars are demanding, it will not meet the 2020 target of 120% debt-to-GDP ratio. Other reports have said it will be 129%, but please remember, this is under the most optimistic scenario. Given the Greek economy is in free-fall and will fall even faster if the full austerity package is enacted, 129% falls into the same category as Editor planning to win the lotto. It’s not impossible in statistical terms, its just that no sane person counts a 1 in 150-million chance as a plan.

Point the second: The austerity being demanded is so severe that no Greek government can accept the terms and hope to survive long enough to implement it.

Conclusion: a default is inevitable, and the Germans, at least, are preparing for a default by Greece.

Now, the only thing wrong with the UK Telegraph story is that all this is no new realization on the part of Greece. The EuroKomissars have known at least since last year that Greece will have to default. If they’ve known that, why are they throwing good money after bad at Greece? Okay, this is a bit complicated and an accurate answer requires information Editor surely does not have. Once the EuroKomissars realized the game is up, their sole endeavor has been to buy time so that an orderly default can be processed. Their banks are basically ready for default, so it can now be allowed to happen. Next, the money that Greece is to get in March has already been sanctioned as part of earlier loans. Its checks the EuroKomissars did not disburse.

But why even give Greece the (relatively small) amount slated for March? First, what’s been happening is a political charade. On the one hand Germany does not want to be accused of pushing out Greece and causing a failure of the Euro project, because Portugal, Spain, and Italy are also in danger. Instead Germany wants Greece to refuse a deal and take the blame. That is why Germany keeps upping the terms. The latest is that the Greek government must deposit its revenues and new loans in a separate account which will be monitored by the EuroKommissars to make sure the new loans and interest is paid. As yourself for a minute: which country is going to agree to that? You can force these sort of terms if you are in military occupation of a country; otherwise there is no chance ANYONE is going to agree.

Final point: we are told that some of the money given after people basically figured out Greece will not make it has been secured against state assets, or any new money given to Greece will have to be secured. We have no way of telling which version is correct, but it would explain why new money is still being discussed.

So what does Germany gain if the Euro collapses? It gets a new Eurozone, composed of two classes of countries. The first class will be the gilt-edged like Germany, Austria, Finland, France, and Holland. The second-class citizens will be everyone else. People can mutter angrily about the German domination of Europe, but this two-tier system actually makes a lot of sense. How this will work is something we leave to the better informed.

We should caution that while we are talking of Germany, this does not mean that the Germans have systematically made a deep plot and are pushing it through with Teutonic thoroughness. If you are conversant with public policy on a governmental scale, you will know there are many factions behind every decision, big and small, democracy or dictatorship. What emerges to the outside world as a unified policy is actually a hodgepodge of compromises, and the compromises keep shifting day by day. It’s a very untidy process. Inevitably there will be German officials who really do believe Greece should be saved even if it costs Germany, there will be ten different groups of people arguing the details of how it should be saved and as many groups arguing why it should not be saved. What we’re telling you is the current consensus, but since this debate has been going on full force for four years, and external events are rushing forward to their own denouement, it can be reasonably assumed that the current consensus will be the one that will happen.

Ultimately, readers should ask themselves: what was the purpose of the Euro? No, the real purpose was not a giant free trade zone, though this was a welcome by product of the real reason (until it wasn’t such a good idea, of course). The real purpose was to tie Germany into Europe forever and forever. It’s the equivalent of the Lilliputians tying down Gulliver with a thousand ropes. It hasn’t worked, because those devious (or clever, depending on your viewpoint) Germans have managed to reframe the matter into a new paradigm. What they want is the Deutche Mark Uber Alles. They don’t mind calling it the Euro to assuage the sensitivities of other countries, but they want to make it clear the center of Europe is Berlin.

And folks, if you put prejudice aside, you have to admit the Germans are only asking the rest of us to acknowledge reality. Germany is the center of Europe, now that the Soviet Union has fallen apart, and poor Albion is like the MGM lion in his latter days: mangy maned, toothless, and whimpering when he tried to roar. And if the UK dissolves, Albion is going to be even less consequential. Success in life requires cold, dispassionate assessment of situations and cold, dispassionate action after the assessment. In international relations, nothing is permanent. In 2020 or 2030 or 2040 the situation may be different. But for now, Germany rules. Germany figured out money is more powerful than the sword. It has won this round, one hundred years after it plotted to be the master of Europe.

All European nations are now permitted to approach the German throne and kiss Germany’s left big toe.

0230 GMT February 19, 2012

Warning to readers on Iran news There’s a full scale pysch war campaign going on against Iran, so please keep that in mind when you read anything about the situation. Of course, the psych war has been on for some time. But based on long decades in the business of analysis, Editor feels that we’re now in an all-out phase. So the news that emanates from all sorts of places needs to be taken with a salt-mine or two. It’s best to take the attitude: “When it’s happening, it’s happening” and disregard amything that says a strike is imminent.

Incidentally, we read that Iran is going to be been locked out of the SWIFT system. This means, basically, that if you want to send money to Iran, or if you are in Iran and want to send money outside, your options revolve around large sacks of currency or steamer trunks of gold. SWIFT is the international equivalent of the American ACH. If the nine-digit routing number on your checks is missing, there is no way the check you write will clear. And if someone sends you a check with the routing number, what you have in your hands is a worthless piece of paper. So it is with SWIFT for international banking. No SWIFT number, and it’s like not having an address – all mail is returned to sender stamped “No such number” or, “Address unknown”.

We’re not that knowledgeable about international banking, and Editor’s exposure to domestic banking is limited to tossing his bank statements unopened into the trash: life is depressing enough without being told by the bank each month how much closer he is to disaster. There are other systems besides SWIFT, but if the US has gotten to SWIFT, it will get to the others. So this is a very serious development for Iran if the news is correct because it cripples Iran’s trade. That doesn’t stop Russia, or China, or India from transacting business using currency or gold. Nor does it stop an Iranian importer from hopping over to Dubai with a suitcase of cash and paying for goods he wants that way. But it is a major crimp in Iran’s ability to trade.

True Love is a subject women seem to think is their exclusive province. But men too are capable of true love. For example, here is the story of Dolores Hart, a Hollywood actress who just before her wedding decided she wanted to become a nun. Her intended never married. He visited her regularly at her convent till he died last year. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/19/opinion/sunday/dowd-where-the-boys-arent.html?_r=1&hp

Now, truth to tell, one reason you may not associate True Love with the male of the species is that us men tend to be pragmatic. Thus, Editor’s initial reaction to this story – which he suspects is fairly typical for males – is to jeer derisively “What a loser!” There is likely not a man who, if meeting this noble person, would not say: “Don’t waste any more time, come on to my place tonight, I’m having a party.” And the important thing to realize here is that the Editor actually believes in True Love, so you can imagine how much more skeptical the average male must be of this exalted state.

So, you say skeptically, if men are capable of True Love can you give one other example of a male expressing True Love? Sure Editor can. What about Wesley in The Princess Bride. But that’s fiction, you say. Okay, what about Hero and Lysander? To swim the Dardanelles twice each night to see your lady has to be True Love; after all, he could have amused himself with shepherdess on his side of the Hellespont. But that’s a myth, you say. Okay, what about Abelard and Heloise. But after her family had their revenge on him for getting - er – romantically involved with her, he had no choice but to forget the physical and to focus on the spiritual aspect of his relationship with Heloise. Well, what about…what about…okay, give Editor some time to research this…

0230 GMT February 18, 2012

Where’s the outrage? Editor certainly feels none. Too much chocolate. There’s a lot of outrageous things happening, but all Editor can bring himself to do is raise a languid hand and go “Whatever”. Could this be Old Age has finally caught up Editor? Whatever.

India doubling forces in remote corner of China front Our trusty South Asian Editor predicted this a while ago, but now its really happening. The Indian government is requisitioning several thousand acres of land in the state of Uttrakhand, which used to be Western Uttar Pradesh till it was split off because the residents of ten mountain districts (a district is equivalent to a US county) wanted their own state and Uttar Pradesh was simply too big to administer properly.

To the right of Uttrakhand is Nepal, and to the left is the Indian state of Himachal Pradesh. So since the post-1962 sino-Indian War buildup, the garrison in this area has consisted of an independent mountain brigade and a mountain division that has also served as an Army HQ reserve. Everytime there is a mobilization emergency, the division leaves the area, because really nothing is happening opposite. China looks to have a border regiment and that’s it. Yawn City and all that. Zzzzzzz.

Well, no longer. India previously announced it was raising a new mountain brigade, based almost smack on the China border. Now steps are being taken to raise a new division, so that in a few years there will be eight brigades and not four, and because India is also raising fresh mountain divisions for other sectors, the existing division is less likely to be called away on mobilization.

Given China’s hubris, we doubt very much Beijing devoted any thought to its provocations along the Tibet border for years and years, after India thought it had a peace deal that would lead to demilitarization of the border. But now there is stark proof that for no reason at all, gaining nothing, the Chinese have created for themselves a major headache in a sector most people didn’t know existed. Aside from the plan to get to 8 brigades, India is to construct 13 new forward helipads, and is pushing roads through everywhere. Slowly, yes, but they’re being built. A new corps HQ will inevitably follow, so in a few years there will be 55,000 Indian troops in this region alone. And that’s not counting the very many border forces battalions, which are also being increased.

That this division is to be raised makes it almost certain that the division the Indian Army has asked for Himachal Pradesh will also be raised. Right now there’s the equivalent of an understrength infantry brigade, deployed more as a show of sovereignty than with any intent of fighting. Himachal used to have a division, positioned after the 1962 War, but it left the area over forty years ago for the plains and never returned because the China threat was supposed to have receded. So here there will be a tripling of forces. Two new divisions for the Northeast are in place, two more have been approved, and two for the Northwest are also in the works.

China doesn’t take India with any degree of seriousness and believes India will never start anything because it lacks the political will. China might like to remember 1986-87, when it was forced to send no less than eight divisions and several independent regiments to reinforce opposite Northeast India, in the dead of winter, because it looked like not only was India going to jump Chinese positions in a village which India claimed, it might just extend its offensive and push for Gyantase and Shigatse, if not Lhasa. Sooner or later PLA GHQ or its equivalent is going to turn around to the government and say: “Dude, there’s 200,000 more troops on our Tibet border, adding to the 250,000 plus that were already deployed or in hand in theatre. That makes 450,000 troops, and isn’t it time we stopped brushing off the lack of intent, and look at the capability?”. For many, many years China has garrisoned Tibet with just two regular brigades. Can Beijing really take the chance that one day India might just start getting ideas?

By the way, here’s something that Editor has never bothered mentioning because he thought it was so obvious it didn’t need mention till he had a conversation with a visitor from the Indian Army. Suddenly Editor realized that even the Army, by and large, doesn’t understand that the Indian Army can and will deploy its regular infantry divisions against China if needed. It isn’t going to be a question of just 15-16 mountain divisions that China will have to face. The number of divisional HQs that will shift will be limited to perhaps 2-3. But there will be any number of brigades that will arrive to reinforce the mountain divisions.

Very smart, China. Great diplomacy, creating a major threat where none existed before because you can’t control your bloated ego and have to push everyone around.

As a historical note: in 1962, China has 2 1/3rd divisions available for operations opposite Towang, which was held by a single brigade. Now India has nine brigades available for the same sector – before reinforcements arrive. India had a single brigade in the Walong sector. Now there are three divisions for operations in this sector – again, before reinforcements arrive. In Ladakh India had a single brigade. It now has seven, again, before reinforcements arrive. China in 1962 had nine divisions – albeit smaller than Indian divisions – in Tibet. Now it has two brigades.

0230 GMT February 17, 2012

The US Space Program: From Hero to Zero First President Nixon ended US manned exploration of interplanetary space when US success was at its height. The President Bush threw a great big wrench in the US earth-orbit program by ending the Space Shuttle without a replacement. Now President Obama has ended the Mars program – at the moment of its greatest successes.

Nothing better underlined America’s technological supremacy than the moon landings. And nothing better illustrates American decline than the continual reduction in the boldness of its space programs. We should have landed on Mars a generation ago, orbited Jupiter, been orbiting Saturn by now, and have landed on Titan. Oh but that’s impossible, someone will say. We don’t have that kind of capability. So do tell: what capability did we have when President Kennedy set a goal of a moon landing in ten years? We didn’t even have a successful ICBM, we were so limited. And despite that the US cut two years off Kennedy’s goal. Fifty years after the President set astonishingly high goals for America, it is unlikely America in 8 years will come to an agreement on which side of the wind it should fart – upwind or downwind? Check back in 2022.

Slow walking a predictor of dementia say researchers. Those who know Editor will say that explains everything. Everyone knows Editor is a bit – shall we delicately say – missing a few nuts and bolts in his Meccano set, and he is also the slowest walker you will ever meet. Editor considers 2-kilometers-an-hour a fast clip, the equivalent of those Germans and their expensive Mercedes on the autobhans. People are always telling him to walk faster. But no one gives him an answer to the question he asks in return: “What’s the rush? We all end up in the same place no matter how fast we walk.” That place is being dead. (British Meccano set = American Erector set.)

Canada’s F-35s will cost $230-million each to buy and fly for 25 years. We’re unclear if that includes money for a mid-life upgrade. The, though UAVs are supposed to be cheaper than manned aircraft, NATO is to spend $800-million each to buy and operate for 20-years five Global Hawks. The UAVs will cost $260-million each; the rest of the money is for operating expenses. How a large UAV costs $230-million to buy versus $115-million for a top-of-the-line fighter is not known to us. But you can see why force structures are getting smaller and smaller: even wealthy countries can’t afford modern systems in numbers. We keep getting told that the capability of each successive new system is much greater than the previous one, so it doesn’t matter if the numbers are reducing. Maybe. With ground forces numbers are as important – we saw that in Iraq and are seeing it in Afghanistan. As for tanks, ships, and aircraft, best to remember the Germans pushed for quality rather than quantity. So maybe the German Tiger tank was worth 10 Shermans. But guess who won that war and who lost.

0230 GMT February 16, 2012

Iran’s “good” news The chief Unshaven One, aka president of Iran, says his country has loaded its own manufactured fuel into the Teheran power production reactor and begun production of uranium enrichment centrifuges that can enrich “three times faster” than the current ones. Editor’s “good” news: so many beautiful women were trying to bash in his door he had to hide in the basement. Hey, if the Iranians can have their fantasies, why can’t Editor.

Meanwhile, apologists for Iran say it is feeling the effect of sanctions and is ready to talk. So? Iran has always been ready to talk – on its terms. And its terms do not include verifiable controls on its N-program. So what is there to talk about? The Kardashians? Niki Minaj’s middle finger? The new Nicholas Cage movie? Maryland’s proposed gay marriage act? Chicago’s unique place as Number One Corrupt City in the US? President Obama’s birth control blunder? Please see how much the US and Iran have to talk about. Is any of this relevant? No, but that doesn’t matter to the “We Must Talk” school. Talking for this school is not just the process, it is the purpose.

Also meanwhile, Delhi and Washington are getting into a tiff over Iran. Iran is India’s second largest oil supplier, and one big Indian refinery is built specifically to take Iranian crude. The Indians are saying we’ve already cut our imports from Iran by a third, but we cannot afford to do more. They are also virtuously declaring Washington can’t push them around. Which is very odd, because on things that actually matter, such as Pakistan’s terror campaign against India, Delhi not only lets itself be pushed around, it thoughtfully presents its big fat tush to the Americans to kick before the Americans even make the request. But: who can figure out how the Great Indian Mind works.

India’s point on the oil is entirely valid. If the Indians had any sense, they would tell the Americans “look, why don’t you make up the oil you don’t want us to get from Iran. Your allies like Germany and Japan are rich and they can afford to get oil from elsewhere. We can’t.” End of discussion, ball is now in US court.

The Americans are getting snippy: the usual “after all we’ve done for you…” If the Indians had any courage, they’d asked Washington to pray tell what exactly is it Washington has done for India. Permitted US companies to sell N-reactors to India? Seeing as how the same companies can’t sell reactors in America because of the anti-nuclear-power stance, is this really a favor? The US embargo didn’t stop the Russians from selling reactors to India so it’s the US coming late to the game, not doing favors. As for selling weapons: pray tell, Washington, where’s the Israeli ABM system India wants and has partially invested in? We’re supposed to be grateful because you’re selling us C-130s and P-8s and M777 howitzers? Every system has a European analog that comes without conditions that US imposes. On stuff that matters – and the ABM system matters a very great deal – US says no. Accepted India’s status as an emerging great power? Well, India is not an emerging great power because it’s blocked on all sides by China, which actually is indeed an emerging great power. If India really was an emerging great power, it wouldn’t need the US to give it validation. And as if the validation is worth a wooden nickel

The Indians need to tell Washington: “If you want us to tolerate your double-dating Pakistan and us, you’d better tolerate us double-dating you and Teheran. Otherwise the door is wide open for you to leave.” At which point you’ll probably say: “Tut tut. Editor getting confused again. Beijing tells America where Washington gets off. Delhi will never have the guts to let push come to shove.” Sigh. Too true.

America: Love It Or Leave It So there’s an Indian tribe in Nebraska that has an alcohol ban. Down the road from the reservation is a place which has a population of ten and 4 beer stores. The stores sold 10-million cans of beer in 2010. The tribe is suing the brewing companies for $500-million for damages to the public health of the Indians on the reservation. The brewers, says a lawyer for the tribe, have to know the alcohol is being smuggled into the reservation and cannot just wash their hands of the responsibility, like Pontius Pilate.

Let us overlook the astonishingly inappropriate and insulting comment comparing the trial and condemnation of Jesus to the legal sale of alcohol to an Indian tribe. If lawyers who come up with this type of case had any shame they wouldn’t be bringing suit in the first place. But hey, this is America. The 36^th Amendment to the Constitution says every American has the right to sue for any wrong, actual, imagined, or constructed, in this universe and in the infinity of all other universes. And let the Editor share a secret with you: if he had the money, he’d do law school and sue the pants off everyone, starting with the US Government for its failure to defend its citizens by refusing to build a proper ABM shield. That should be worth $100-trillion in damages that being the damage if someone like Russia or China throws a few hundred N-warheads at us. One third share: $33-trillion. That would keep Editor in chocolate for a while. (Editor is absolutely serious: he really did want to go to law school.) (Can’t find the 36^th Amendment to the Constitution? You’re not looking hard enough.)

So let’s imagine a scenario. Person who looks Indian enters beer store. “Four 24-packs, please”, and puts down his money. Is the store seriously expected to say: “May I see proof that you are not resident on the reservation? If you are resident on the reservation, please sign this undertaking that you understand the dangers of drinking alcohol, and please leave behind your last born as surety you will not take this alcohol into the reservation.”

Now, the tribe is not suing the brewers for sales made at the stores 20-miles away. So what this tribe is really saying is: “you’re making it easy for our members to buy beer, so you owe us $500-million.” Nice. So can the tribe prove that if these stores didn’t exist members would not chip in to buy pick-up truck loads worth of beer to bring back from the stores 20-miles away? Stores 50-miles away? Stores 100-miles away? Should the brewers sue the tribe for its failure to enforce its own laws?

This is truly a horrible thought: how about the tribe taking responsibility for its problems? Uh oh: that was a dumb thing to say. Article 35 of the Constitution says every American has the right to deny he is responsible for anything that happens to him. It is always someone else’s fault.

Question: is the tribe suing the beer shops? If not, might it have something to do with the stores likely have no assets worth chasing after?

0230 GMT February 15, 2012

Portugal: The German formula isn’t working Portugal has been doing everything required by the Euro Kommissars in exchange for a bailout it received last year, including cutting its deficit by a third. Yet its debt to GDP ratio has gone from 107% to an expected 118% next year, because the economy has been shrinking. Similarly, Italy and Spain have also been taking tough steps to contain their deficits. Result? Their debt to GDP ratio is climbing. In Spain its gone from 36% before the crisis to an expected 84% in 2013, and Italy has gone from 105% to an expected 126% in 2013. The Portugal government is hopeful that the reduction in debt will reduce the interest burden and that the economy will start growing in 2014. But the financial rating agencies do not seem to be impressed, and have downgraded Portugal, which means despite its deficit reduction it will have to pay more – creating more trouble. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/15/business/global/portugals-debt-efforts-may-be-a-warning-for-greece.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&hp

The first thing to understand is this is not an academic game. People in Europe are losing their jobs, and the standard of living for everyone is dropping. If this goes on year after year – and for many countries this is Year 3 and even Year 4 of the crisis – and instead of improving things get worse, there are serious consequences for the stability of the countries under stress. Germany followed a virtuous cycle for the last 10 years by reducing wages, reducing government spending, reducing the deficit (a constitutional amendment requires a balanced budget by 2016), and increasing the percentage of GDP collected by the government. Germany has a 5.5% unemployment rate in the middle of this global recession, a rate the US may not see again in the lifetimes of many Americans. Incidentally, Germany also instituted a new push to raise educational standards. And it’s worked: real German wages are climbing, unemployment is low, the 2011 budget deficit was 1% of GDP, and the German export prowess you already know about. But this system is not working for other countries, possibly because they’re trying to make these wrenching structural changes in the middle of a global recession. Germany underwent its pain/suffering in the 2000s and entgered the global recession in pretty good shape. We might add that besides Greece, UK economy also seems to be caught in a downward spiral as the government cuts spending and raises taxes, so its not as if the German remedy is not working for a couple of states, it doesn’t seem to be working for anyone. (In all fairness, it worked for Estonia a couple of years back, but honestly you could put Estonia into the US and no one would notice it’s there. The country has 1.3-million people. Its rating is AA-, which is pretty remarkable for a former Soviet republic.)

Now, we realize there are loads of Brits – and not a few Yanks – who are tapping their heads and saying: gosh, the Editor is such a dimwit, we’ve been saying for years the Euro cannot work for the simple reason one set of ruls cannot apply to 17 countries with disparate economies, opportunities, and problems. If there was no Euro, countries that engaged in fiscal folly would be forced to devalue their currencies, leading to a fall in living standards but increasing their global competitiveness and providing an opportunity to grow. But when you have a common currency, there can be no devaluation, and policies that work for the 800-kilo gorilla (Germany) will not necessarily work for other countries.

If the Germans have it all wrong, Europe is in big trouble. And the last thing the US needs is Europe in trouble.

The US system of hire and fire has always been plain stupid, because workers are not interchangeable parts that you can buy off the shelf when you need them. When you lose workers, you lose all the experience they take with them. And when you need them back, their skills have either atrophied, or they have the wrong skills, or they’ve dropped out of jobs they were skilled at. The Germans and Japanese do their level best to keep workers, good times or bad, and to retrain them for new jobs when companies are not doing well, thus retaining their competitiveness.

Now the US hire and fire policy has come home to roost – literally – in the matter of manufacturing. Reuters says there are 600,000 unfilled manufacturing jobs in the US: the workers are just not available despite our high unemployment/underemployment rate http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/14/us-usa-manufacturing-onshoring-idUSTRE81C1B720120214 The jobs are available because – as we’ve been reporting – US wages have dropped to the point many companies are moving production back to the US. An even bigger problem is that the US industrial base has been gutted by the shift to China, so there are hosts of production capabilities we no longer have. Batteries is one that was in the news a couple of years ago. Most Americans do not realize that if a national security situation arises that requires us to ramp up our production base, it will be 10-years before the job can be done. And it won’t be possible to go hat in hand to China for critical materials and manufactures because likely China will be the Number One security problem we’re facing.

Globalization has made many American companies very, very rich – Apple, for example, has a $100-billion cash stash. But has it been good for America? Not so much.

0230 GMT February 14, 2012

Greece: OK, this is more complicated than we thought First, a recap of what we thought. The Greek Parliament has voted to accept the latest harsh terms set by the EuroKommisars, so we assumed that the next payments – promised Euro 130-billion would be made but sooner or later Greece would default anyway.

Not quite, says an analysis in UK Telegraph. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/9079430/Greece-wont-see-a-cent-of-the-great-bail-out.html First, when last year the Euros agreed to provide that money, apparently no one thought Gre4ece would go this long without defaulting. Those nations agreeing to cough up the money did it as a political move, did not expect they would have to actually come up with the money, and when push comes to shove, they will NOT come up with the money. Bye-bye Greece.

Next, the popularity of the ruling party is down to 8%, the left parties, which have staunchly opposed the deal, are now up to 42%. In the parliamentary system that’s enough to form a majority government, possibly – if needed – with the help of small parties. So what the Telegraph is saying is come the elections in April, the government that signed the deal will be booted out, and the new government will tell the Euros, “Hasta la vista, Baby”, and again its Bye-bye Greece.

Last, there is the point many have been making and we have repeated: the austerity measures are reducing the amount of money people have, which is reducing demand, which is reducing jobs, which is reducing taxes collected , which means that the previous deficit targets become impossible to attain. So then Greece cuts some more, pushing the country down further, and the race to the bottom continues.

So now here’s your quota of pop economics from kindly Uncle Ravi. What will be the effect of a Greek default on the world economy? Very little. This is because the private lenders have already agreed to settle for 30 cents on the dollar, and have effectively written off 70 cents on the dollar. Their balance sheets have been accordingly adjusted. When Greece defaults, it doesn’t mean it will pay zero cents to the dollar. It will pay something, because it will need to start signing up for new loans. Say theoretically it pays half of the 30-cents, the banks lose 15-cents more, or just 20% more than they’re already losing. No big deal. Now if Italy defaults, that is a problem. But there’s no reason for Italy to default. It runs what is called a primary-account surplus, meaning it gets enough from taxes that it can pay the interest on its debt. But that is today’s conventional wisdom. Some say that Italy’s austerity measures are already driving down tax collections and it may soon no longer run a primary account surplus. Let’s see.

The loons you see flying around squawking “We are cwazeee! We are cwazeee!”? They are the Rest of Virginia. Virginia divides into two geographical areas, Northern Virginia and the Rest of Virginia. NoVa has a third of the population, but half the state GDP. So it pays more than its share of taxes into the Old Dominion’s coffers.

Now, NoVa has a very, very bad traffic problem because its grown very fast in the last 20-30 years and the Virginians, being Red Staters, don’t like paying taxes. They will tell you one reason for the rapid growth of NoVa is precisely because taxes are low. But with NoVa looking more and more like a giant parking lot, its obvious to everyone that taxes have to be increased so that more/better roads can be built. Otherwise NoVa, the goose laying the golden eggs, is going to get strangled, literally. Low taxes are nice, but people need to be able to get from Point A to Point B in reasonable time, or commerce suffers.

Well, the NoVas who have to put up with the traffic mess every day are finally ready to raise taxes. But the Rest of Virginia is not, because more taxes clash with the purity of their Red Statism. And incidentally, its not even so much a matter of raising taxes as closing the tax breaks which in recent years have cost Virginia almost as much as it collects in taxes http://hamptonroads.com/2012/01/lawmakers-call-fix-virginias-taxbreak-system As far as the Rest of Virginia is concerned, anything that raises taxes for any reason is a “Over our dead body” situation, and the consequences be darned.

So let’s all join hands and squawk in unison: “We are cwazee! We are cwazee!”

And – sorry, we just can’t resist this – who is the biggest, fattest, oinkiest piggy-wiggy at the federal trough? Yes! It’s Virginia! According US census figures quoted in http://www.nemw.org/images/fedspend2.pdf Virginia in 2008 got $15,256 of federal money per capita, and it’s also first in federal pension and disability payments.

Let’s all join hands and oink in union: “Trample! Grab! Snarf! Scarf! Burp!”

(Maryland, Editor’s state, is third – after Alaska. The difference is we’re Blues: we’re happy to take the feds money, and we don’t give lectures to others about virtuous we are and how self-reliant we are and how capitalist we are.)

0230 GMT February 13, 2012

Greece So the Greeks are busy rioting in the streets, but the pundits say that even after defections the government will have enough votes to get the latest austerity bill through Parliament. On the other hand financial pundits are saying Greece has STILL not come clean on its finances and how it proposes to meet the austerity targets. Unless this is resolved to the EuroKomissars’ satisfaction, there will be no loan.

Pakistan to lease Northern Areas to China? Readers Prakash Vora and David B. send links to stories from vernacular papers saying Pakistan is to lease Kashmir’s northern areas to China for 50 years. There may be less to this story than at first sight. The Pakistani press in general, and particularly the vernacular press, is very big on wild rumors so one can’t put much credence on the story to begin with. Next, Pakistan has already given China mineral exploration/mining leases in these remote territories. Last, no one in this day and age just hands over an area of its territory to another country to do with as the other country pleases. Countries in the 20^th Century still leased out base areas, as for example the famous US-UK “destroyers for bases” deal of World War II. But it’s unclear why China would based in the Northern Areas (Gilgit and Baltistan).

India continues to shift ground forces closer to the Pakistan border to improve its response time in the event of mobilization. Because Pakistan forces are located at most 72-hours from their war areas, whereas many Indian divisions are located up to 10-days from the border, after the 2001-2002 crisis India decided to shorten its mobilization times. The rationale was that since Pakistan was fully mobilized ahead of India, India could not take action against Pakistani terror camps in Kashmir.

Once an idea becomes conventional wisdom it’s very hard to lay it to the rest. The reason India did not take action had everything to do with political issue, not military ones. Particularly in Jammu and Kashmir both sides are always positioned right on the border, and there is no chance of either side catching the other by surprise. Pakistan’s strike forces in any case mobilize within 12- to 48-hours, so India is never going to catch Pakistan by surprise (or vice versa) in that regard.

Nonetheless, conventional wisdom rules and India talks vaguely of zero-warning attacks – the putative Cold Start doctrine. That there is no such thing as a zero-warning ground attack seems not to overly concern Indian planners. Even then, India’s move to build new cantonments closer to the border has been very, very slow. Just a very few brigades are now stationed closer to the borders than they were earlier, though India has been practicing getting formations located further from the front to the front faster than before.

While in general it’s probably a good thing for India to move formations closer to the Pakistan border, India is never going to attack Pakistan out of the blue. India is very conscious of international law – much too conscious, according to Editor but no one listened to him back in the day and the chances anyone will listen now are even more remote. There has to be a provocation. If Pakistan is going to stage a provocation, it will now make sure its forces are as close to an alert as possible without actually moving to their war stations before it does something provocative. So it will shorten its reaction time beyond even the already short time it enjoys

Moreover, as we have discussion several times, India has spent the better part of a decade talking about a faster reaction time without actually doing much about it, thus giving Pakistan plenty of opportunity to counter. Pakistan has raised armored and mechanized reserves for each of its India-front corps. These are to counter India’s Cold Start while keeping their strike forces intact. So here you have a situation in which Pakistan has taken Indian verbiage very seriously, while the Indians have failed to take themselves seriously!

The truth of the matter is that India is a firm believer in live-and-let live. In four actual wars with Pakistan it has taken the initiative only once (1971), and that too because of Pakistan’s foolishness in ethnically cleansing East Pakistan of Hindus subsequent to the revolt in that province. It is only when millions of Hindu refugees came stumbling across the border with the little they could carry, and told their tales of mass killings and extraordinary brutalities, that the Union of India was finally moved to act. And India has never once counter-attacked Pakistan for the 25-year insurgency and terror that Pakistan unleashed against Indian Punjab and Indian Kashmir, or against the city of Mumbai. Americans get very het up about the World Trade Center where 3000 innocent people were killed. Well, in Indian Punjab in the 1980s there were months that 1000 civilians a month were being killed and India did precisely nothing, just as it did precisely nothing when Mumbai was attacked in 1993 and 2008.

So, honestly, people need to relax about this Cold Start thing, and here we particularly address ourselves to Washington, which is perpetually on edge that India might attack its pet dog, Pakistan. That the pet hates the US and bites America at every opportunity it gets doesn’t seem to bother the Americans any, but that’s another story. Indian strategists, both civil and military, have already decided they will capitulate to American pressure in the event India decides to act against Pakistan. It is an article of faith America will stop India. Not a terribly positive outlook, but then that’s the way we Indians are. We’ll sit there will long faces and talk about the negatives of a taking the initiative against Pakistan, and continue long after the last dog has put his ears down and died of old age.

And since the Americans are going to stop us – how is never explained, particularly if India is solely exercising its right of self-defense – why even bother starting? Cold Start is a more appropriate name than people realize. When you’re frozen solid, you aren’t going to start anything. And Indians are frozen solid – petrified would be a better word – of anything that could lead to a war with Pakistan or with China.

0230 GMT February 12, 2012

Folks, the pepper thing has ended badly. Editor received a lot of advice on how to go about enjoying pepper. Well, he tried the teeniest bit of the old pepper and immediately went off into a paroxysm of sneezing, hacking, and close-to-upchucking. The thing is simply too strong, and presumably fresh-ground pepper will be much stronger. There was another problem: adding pepper to his food would have required 10 extra seconds each day. One reason Editor has no life is that he has simplified his existence to maximize work time. So even if he could tolerate the pepper he’d have to give it up. Sad, but there it is. If you give up 10 seconds here, then the next thing you know you’re doing something else to make life more pleasant, and then another thing and another thing, and before you know it, you’re a sybarite like Nero and headed for the Hot Place Downstairs. True Editor already has his place reserved down there, but that’s for reasons other than self-indulgence. When you combine Indian asceticism with New England asceticism you get…a very unbalanced person. What’s one to do. Of course you might retort “well if you’re such as ascetics, what about the four pillows you insist on for your bed?” Let’s be reasonable, people. One pillow one needs to cushion one’s – er – ample middle. One pillow is needed to cover one’s head against light. Yes, Editor can’t sleep if there’s a sliver of light under the door – even with the pillow on his head. So he’s really sleeping only with two pillows. Likely you’re shaking your head and saying “No wonder you’ve had four wives leave you. Mrs. R. IV must have been a saint to put up with you for 30 years.” If you must know, the real issue with Mrs. R. IV (aside from my insisting she not spend nights out without calling home) was that Editor is adamant everyone must have a bath before getting into bed. Mrs. R. IV though this was spousal abuse. Her greatest thrill was waiting till Editor was fast asleep (2100 Hours on the dot), skip the night bath, and then in the morning roll around the bed going “He he he” (I am not kidding about the he he part) loudly singing “I didn’t have a bath! I didn’t have a bath!” Young people are so disrespectful of their elders.

Iran promises big nuclear announcements, offers talks To be a diplomat, you have to be delusional. You have to forget about experience, and charge forward on hope. Editor’s father was a soldier who became a diplomat. He would have been thrilled had Editor taken up a diplomatic career. Now, Editor is fairly delusional in his own way, as are most human beings. Otherwise how could we go on living knowing that in five billion years the sun is going to die. But Editor is not delusional about diplomacy. There is only one way diplomacy works: you line up the Big Battalions behind you, smile, and tell the other person nicely: “If you do not respond to my diplomatic initiatives, I’m gonna clobber you”.

So it is with the Iranians. There is nothing to discuss. Not one little thing. Most Americans understand this, to their credit. The Euros in the main understand it, at least their leaders. But America’s credibility is to totally shot after Gulf II and Afghanistan that the Americans merely have to casually say “The Moon is made of green cheese” and the Euros will automatically say “No, you’re wrong, it’s made of blue cheese.” An American might even tell a European, “I say, there’s a giant shark with his mouth wide open behind you, and he’s drooling”, and the European, without turning around, will say: “No, it’s a minnow and he’s not the least hungry.”

Iran has said more times that anyone can count that they are not going to give up their “peaceful” nuclear program. We have explained to readers and to anyone who cares to listen that this is not a negotiating position for the Iranians. If they were to compromise on their weapons program, the leadership would be lynched by the people. When you are talking negotiations, you absolutely have to put yourself in your opponents place to understand where he can compromise and where he cannot. Iran – and the whole world – has seen what happens when you don’t have N-weapons: the US comes in and beats you to death. For the Iranians, who have been on very bad terms with the US since 1979, nuclear weapons are an imperative for survival. That’s the end of the discussion - there’s nothing to discuss.

Now, Americans can say but we have enmity with the Iranians. They’re the ones who seized our embassy, they’re the ones who created problems for us during the 1980-88 War, they’re the ones who have destabilized Iraq, threatened Israel, supported Syria, pushed terrorism against Israel, and with their bosom buddies destabilized Lebanon. If they would stop this nonsense, we’d have no quarrel with them, and they wouldn’t a bomb.

Very reasonable – if you’re an American. If you are an Iranian, you argue that from when oil was discovered the Anglo-Americans have been interfering in Iran – that’s about ninety years now. The Americans overthrew an Iran government that didn’t suit them, and supported one of the cruelest tyrants of the modern world, the Shah. The Americans have no business being in the Middle East, and they have no right to box us in, surround us, and threaten us at every step because we refuse to be their running dogs. We are not acting offensively, but defensively. We don’t want n-wreapons because we want to threaten anyone. We want them because (a) why is it Israel’s god-given right to be the only n-weapon state in the Mideast; and (b) it is our sole protection against the Americans.

So is there no way Iran can be persuaded to give up its N-weapons program. Of course there is. Let the Americans de-nuclearize Israel, and let them give verifiable assurance they will leave Iran alone.

Back to you, Washington. Is America ready to de-nuclearize Israel and to withdraw from the Mideast and to sign, in effect, a non-aggression pact with Iran? Obviously not. So why should anyone expect Iran to give up its n-program?

So again, what is there to discuss? Nothing. The sooner the Europeans understand this, the better. There is no point to the Europeans cutting their noses to spite their toes. America was absolutely wrong in attacking Iraq in 2003. It has made a total mess of Afghanistan. But that doesn’t mean America is wrong about Iran. Now, if the Europeans for once speak honestly and openly say “truth to tell, we really don’t give a hang about Israel’s survival, and please don’t bother us about action on Iran”, then at least everything could be in the open and the US could go ahead and do what had to be done. But obviously the Europeans are not going to admit that anti-Semitism is well and alive. So they’re walking this very peculiar walk – the walk of the Herniated Duck is what Editor calls it – where their leaders at least feel compelled to go along with the US on the n-weapons question, while at the same time they are terrified of the consequences of a US strike against Iran and wish the US would just go away.

It is time to end the façade of assumptions that sanctions will get Iran to give up its N-weapons. If you are an Iranian, how can you NOT draw the conclusions that today n-weapons are even more important than they were yesterday, and that they will be even more important tomorrow?

It is also time for the Americans to stop waiting to bring the Europeans along prior to a military strike. Do what has to be done, and take the consequences. Israel can cripple Iran for a few years. But to destroy the Iran n-program for 10-years or more, the US has to strike, and be ready to strike as many times in the future as necessary. Yes, there will be consequences, possibly very severe consequences. So what is the alternative? Do nothing until Iran gets half-a-dozen n-warheads? A case can be made that that will not be the end of the world. Maybe. Do we want to take the chance?

Readers can justifiably ask: “Wait a minute: hasn’t Editor been repeatedly saying the US has such a terrible record on successful use of military force since World War 2 that maybe we should stop our overseas adventures and focus on rebuilding our own country?” Sure Editor has said that. He says that on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Saturdays. On Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays he says raise the defense budget to 10% of GDP, and whack anyone who stands in our way. On Sundays he wallows in self-pity that he is poor and without a date on Saturday. You want consistency? Find yourselves a hobgoblin or two.

0230 GMT February 11, 2012

There they go again So day-before-yesterday everyone thought Greece was a done deal. Yesterday it was not a done deal. Turns out the EuroKommisars decided Greece was lying about its finances and steps it was taking to address Euro concerns, so they piled on more conditions just before the deal was to be signed. Several Greek politicians revolted. Prime Minister says anyone who does not sign the deal will be ejected from the temporary coalition that is governing Greece.

It may just be simpler to hold fresh elections so that the Greek people can register their will, one way or another. Saying that it’s just six weeks before a big round of debts comes due and so there’s no time for elections, and a deal must be done now is not helpful because if the Greek people do not go along with the deal the government will fall and the deal will be repudiated. So why not get it right the first time.

A major stumbling block is that the EuroKommisars want everything in writing and the Greeks are reacting with wounded pride: “You don’t trust us? That is an insult!! We will not give it in writing.”

Anyhows, good people of Europe, best of luck sorting this out. Across the Atlantic we have our own problems. No time to worry about your problems, sorry.

Do any of our readers know what percentage of engine thrust a jet fighter uses when in the cruise mode? We ask because with that’s figure its easy to calculate how many tankers Israel needs to support an air strike on Iran.

One thing we can tell you even now: all the profiles giving long flights over the Red Sea and so on are bunk. The Israelis are going to go straight across Iraq. They will cross the southern corner of Syria regardless of what Syria thinks; they may even get permission from Saudi to use Saudi air space. Riyadh is no mood to put up with a nuclear-weaponized Iraq.

Sudan and South Sudan are on the brink of war This is sad because after Khartoum agreed for the Christian-majority south to secede, there was hope that both countries could get on with rebuilding after a destructive three-decade civil war. An agreement on division of oil revenues had been reached (most of the oil is in South Sudan and in border areas).

But there are groups on both sides that do not agree with the areas that have gone to South Sudan or have remained with Sudan. So both sides are pushing armed men into each other’s territory, fomenting rebellions. Then there are separatists in South Sudan and in Sudan’s south.

South Sudan has stopped oil production to put pressure on Khartoum, and Khartoum is having none of that. So don’t be surprised if war breaks out again

New York Times has a fairly intelligent article given space constraints explaining the current crisis. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/11/world/africa/sudan-and-south-sudan-edge-closer-to-brink-in-oil-dispute.html?pagewanted=2&hp

We’d like to ask readers another question Bit of background. Young man in college, an athlete, who is known to be a habitual drunkard with a violent temper doesn’t like his girlfriend wants to break up with him. He’s even drunk in front of his own father and the parents of his friends. He’s attacked her before, including at a party where she’s crying for help and another young man runs in and sees the accused trying to strangle her. He breaks down her door, and slams her head against the wall with enough force and enough times she dies. He is on trial, and a lot of time, energy, and money will be spent by the prosecution saying he intended to kill her, and by the defense saying it was not intentional. (Defense is first going to try and argue that it’s not conclusive she died from being bashed into the wall, the actual cause of death could have been something else. But let’s ignore this for a moment.)

Our question is: this man has killed this young woman. He was in a drunken rage. Why are we debating what he intended or did not intend? She’s dead due to his actions. Why should he get a pass – a much reduced sentence for manslaughter – because he didn’t intend to kill her?

Next, how does it matter if she had some pre-existing condition that was the actual cause of her death, unless she would have dropped dead that same day because of the pre-existing condition? This is like saying “oh, if she had been absolutely healthy she’d have survived the beating.” How is any of this relevant?

According to us manslaughter is you’re in an equal fight and you punch the other person and he hits his head on the edge of the sidewalk and dies. Manslaughter is you run over a pedestrian who in a zebra crossing.

What are the extenuating circumstances in this situation? We don’t see any. We say hang this fellow: arguing about his state of mind is irrelevant and does not serve the cause of justice.

What do our readers say?

Letter from reader Anon on Pepper If I may add my 2-ounces worth, I think that the found pepper was tasteless, or tasted like something else, because it was way too old. Spices have a fairly short shelf life. Fine-ground black pepper is quite tasteless to begin with if that's what it was. Add coarse-ground pepper to your shopping list for a decided bang for your (mega-) buck. (That doesn't explain why I have just now found a full tin of fine-ground pepper on my spice rack dated 09/2001, not only the start of the war on terror but probably the start of war in my household. It was "decreed" that I move to a coarse grind.)

0230 GMT February 10, 2012

The US, Israel, and the Iranian MEK

NBC news says that Israel has been working with the Iranian MEK to kill Iranian nuclear scientists. US knows about it, but is not involved. Okay, that’s nice one minor mystery has been cleared up, i.e., who has been killing the Iranians. Can we go on to some other topic now? http://rockcenter.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/02/08/10354553-israel-teams-with-terror-group-to-kill-irans-nuclear-scientists-us-officials-tell-nbc-news

Sure we can, but let’s look at this story a moment longer. MEK has been declared by the US as a terrorist group. Israeli is working with a terror group to further its national security objectives. US is aware of this connection. So can Washington explain to us why it’s so wrong for Pakistan to work with terrorist groups in furtherance of its national security objectives? Either terror is wrong no matter where and how it takes place, or US is being selective in its morality: governments using terror groups for purposes the US deems proper are okay, governments that use terror groups for purposes we deem wrong are not okay.

Can Washington then explain how it can insist the Global War On Terror is a moral war? Morality is absolute. It cannot be relative, under any conditions, or it is not morality, it is expediency. The Israeli-MEK connection will be seized by America’s enemies and those who dislike official America even though they like the American people (which sadly is most of the world) to say, once again, that the American government is a hypocritical one without respect for its own laws. US laws, in case anyone is interested, forbid normal dealings with governments that support or engage in terror.

The more Americans say “we don’t give a hoot what the rest of the world thinks”, the more we are saying “might is right.” Which leaves us scarcely better off than people like the Soviets. Is this where America wants to be? If so, what happens to our assertion that our ideals make us superior to others and make us worthy of emulation? Isn’t it Americans who believe Truth is so powerful that no force can suppress it for long? What happens when we start snickering behind our hands and crossing our fingers behind our backs when we proclaim we are for Truth?

That out of the way the Editor can now zig where previously he zagged. Editor has made clear many times as a 3^rd Worlder he cannot calmly accept that the state of Israel was established at the expense of a helpless, colonized people. After what happened in World War Two, the Jews had every moral right to a homeland of their own where they could be safe. Hitler killed many different types of people, but what he did to the Jews was real genocide, the attempt to exterminate everyone of a particular race that he could get his hands on, not as revenge in the heat of the moment, but as a matter of German state policy We say “real genocide” because in the modern world we are very, very quick to use the word to apply to every situation where people are killing each other. But restitution for the Jewish people should have been made with a homeland carved out of Germany, not out of the Middle East, from territories the Jewish people had departed – whatever the circumstances of that departure – starting nineteen centuries previously.

That too out of the way it’s time for zigging. The past is gone, it’s the present we must deal with. And in the present it is an indisputable reality that Iran has chosen to become an enemy of Israel whereas the Israelis have never harmed Iran. Iran is not even an Arab state, and seldom used to tire of telling people that. The people of Egypt and Jordan have legitimate issues with Israel, but no one else, not the Iranians, and certainly not people like the Saudis. For Iran to say it is against Israel because it must stand up for the oppressed is a breathtaking piece of hypocrisy, considering Iran itself oppresses its people and is BFFs with some of the nastiest regimes in the world, like the North Koreans. Nor are we aware that the Arabs have at any point welcomed Iran’s self-appointed role as champion of the Palestine people.

Under international law – which by the way the US has invoked to provide a legal framework for its Global War On Terror, Israel has every right to defend itself against Israel by any means necessary. Israel can, indeed, claim an exception to morality in its means because it is a tiny country that could easily really be wiped off the map. To say, as many who are anti-Israel do, that the Iranian talk is just rhetoric, we reply it’s easy for you all to say that, because no one has threatened to wipe you off the map of the world.

As an aside the irony of the Iranians complaining they are victims of terror is simply too delicious. In terms of the sheer number and ferocity of terror acts, Iran heads the world list: Iraq, Israel, Syria, and Lebanon can tell us something about Iranian terror. We feel so terribly sad when an Iranian official says the Israelis killed his friend, a nuclear scientist who was not even involved in weapons, he was simply a university professor. Boo hoo hoo, we will not be able to sleep for weeping and grief. Not. The man was a key administrator in Iran’s weapons program, which is why he was targeted, not because he was a professor. That NBC can even report what this official says as if it is neutrally presenting both sides of a dispute where none is right and none is right shows once again the complete moral bankruptcy of the American liberal media, but that is another story.

To the Israelis we say “congratulations on a campaign well conducted. Your intelligence agencies have won back some of the respect they lost at the amazingly amateur killing of a Palestine weapons dealer in the Mideast.” But what do we say to the Americans? We can say “stop with his morality business already, we’ve already barfed our guts out at your hypocrisy, what are you trying to do, make us puke till we die?” While we are at it, perhaps we can also tell the sun to start rising in the west. There’s a better chance of that happening that having Americans stop moralizing about the terroristic sins of others when we ourselves are big time sinners.

Letter from William Burns Most times your stories about Mrs. R IV strike a chord. This is so even if we have happy marriages, because it is so easy to identify with what you continue to go through, even if you make a joke out of it. What happened to you can happen to anyone, and does happen all too often. But your story about the pepper was spooky. Not that Mrs. R IV is, to see the language your students employ, a Miss McGreedy Pants about accumulating property. If she is taking advantage of you regarding your house, well, obviously you are willing to be taken advantage of. No. What was spooky that for eight years you have not altered the way your kitchen is laid out and equipped, so that it was a matter of seconds for Mrs. R IV to locate the pepper you have been unable to find since 2003. Don’t you think it is very strange that for eight years you have not added pepper to your food or moved anything in your kitchen? I suggest professional help. Since I am sure you are on Medicare given your claims of advanced age, the help will be very affordable. Please let me know what you think of my suggestion: you are exceptionally chatty, so I would be interested to hear your defense of the State of Pepper in your house.

Editor’s response Er…

0230 GMT February 9, 2012

The mystery of the pepper

So the youngster was over for dinner, and his mother (aka Mrs. R. IV) also dropped in). I related the story of the effort to get pepper at Whole Foods. Mrs. R IV went to a kitchen cabinet, and five seconds later put one of those generic spice bottles in front of Editor – you know the kind you buy two dozen at a time and label yourself. The ink on the labels were long since fadedI looked at it and said: “but I tasted the contents and they’re not pepper. Even I am not so dumb as to think this is pepper” (You can see Editor has trust issues with Mrs. R. IV – that’s another long story). Then youngster tasted in and said “Dad, this is indeed pepper”. Editor tasted in and it sure still didn’t taste like pepper. It appears it’s so long since he’s had pepper he had forgotten what it tastes like. Can’t say about you all, but when a woman who left the house eight years ago can just walk in and locate what it is you’ve been looking for eight years, one gets an eerie feeling. Mrs. R. IV does these things to assert ownership. Editor bought her out of this house (raising the mortgage to the extent paying it has been the bane of his life since), she has her own house, is building another house (in India), and inherits property in the old home town from her dad who is now 88, bless his soul, but she still wants this house too. Editor has his pepper (which does not taste like pepper) but he is well and truly spooked by the way Mrs. R IV unerringly located the putative pepper. There was something just so self-confident and predatory in the way she put the bottle in front of the Editor…maybe he is imaging things…

15,000 Iran troops in Syria? So says Haartez of Israel. We are happy to believe anything bad about Iran, and have frequently maintained US needs to whack Iran just on general principle, no evidence needed. But one has to be careful of anything coming out of Israel regarding Iran, at this time. The Israelis have an interest in demonizing Iran, and this is a pretty demonizing thing to say. If the report is anywhere near true, it will be just a matter of time before Arab and Turkish troops intervene for the rebels. Reports say advisors are already working with the rebels.

Stuff like this makes one wonder why one bothers with national security Scientists have recreated Parkinson’s cells in the lab, which allows them to see how they work and to test therapies. And three blind American women have had their sight restored enough to function thanks to gene therapy. This sort of thing is so much more meaningful to the betterment on the human condition that anything national security can achieve. If people would just leave each other alone, national security would not even be an issue. But along with the good things about being human is this horrible thing, the insane lust for power on the part of some humans that leads them to repress and kill others. Editor often laughs when he sees movies or reads books about aliens coming to earth and taking us over. More likely we’ll slaughter the aliens before they get to say “We come in p…..”.

Meanwhile, the Russians have extracted 40-liters of water from an under-ice Antarctic lake said to have been isolated from 20-million years. The Russians have said the drilling chemicals they use would not contaminate the lake because their bore well would just touch the lake surface, after which water pressure would force water up the bore-hole and promptly freeze, sealing the bore. Apparently this indeed is what happened: the drilling chemicals were ejected and the bore is sealed. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2095193/Lake-Vostok-Russian-scientists-confirm-triumph-drilling-successful-Antarctica.html

Greek parties fail to agree on accepting the harsh measures Eurozone has imposed as a precondition for continued aid. No surprise here. We venture that even if the current parties agree, there is a good chance they will be thrown out in the next election and the trouble will start all over again. Let it go, people, let it go. In any case when private lenders are to take a 70% loss, what “we must avoid default” are we talking about? Greece has already defaulted, and time for Eurozone to accept reality and to move on.

When you have 310-million over-excited Americans the majority of whom are not taking their Prozac regular like, you’re going to get some weird happenings in the country. Here’s an extra-weird one sent by reader Luxembourg. On February 6, police were called to a McDonald’s in Hope Mills, NC. A lady in a car with her 3-year old pulled ahead of the drive-thru line, parked herself in front of the payment window, and demanded an order be filled. The staff told her she had to get back in line, and in any case orders can’t be taken at the payment/delivery window – fast-food places are not set up for that. And apparently this lady had been doing this line-breaking thing on previous occasions. After futile attempts to get her to move, the police were called. The police tried to get her to move. No results. A bunch of police got into her car and attempted to extract her. They could not manage. So they removed the barbs from a taser and stunned her. Still nothing. They stunned her again and she fell out of the car and was taken away. Child was put in foster care presumably pending bail and all that. Did this woman for one minute think what the scene she was creating was doing to the child? Of course not. Us Americans are all about the I and the me, supreme ruler of the world and everyone can kiss my fat butt. The sad thing is that if this woman is given time – which she richly deserves and which will give her an opportunity to meditate on her shortcomings – the child will be punished some more.

0230 GMT February 8, 2012

US Government has been lying about Afghanistan progress says a US Army Lieutenant Colonel writing in Armed Forces Journal ( http://armedforcesjournal.com/2012/02/8904030 ). AFJ is no hotbed of anti-military sentiment or radical thinking. The officer says that things are really bad over there, and he talks principally about the sad state of the Afghan security forces. He says he cannot discuss a lot of things because the information is classified.

Now, if Editor tells you he had no clue US government was lying about Afghanistan, you may be tempted to think “the Old Bird has definitely lost his marbles, poor fellow. Maybe we should take up a collection so he can be retired to a nice home.” But no, Editor has not lost his marbles. He didn’t know US Government was lying because he gets his Afghan information from other channels, and everyone (repeat, everyone) he is in touch with has been saying for years that (a) the Afghan security forces are a mess; and (b) the Taliban grow stronger every year. So naturally Editor assumed since everyone he talks to knows this, the Americans must also know it, given they are putting in 95% of the military effort and 70% of the civil/development/aid effort. You are doubtless about to ask: “Dear Editor, how do you draw the inference because a situation exists, the US people on the scene are telling the truth to those of us back home?” Well, since the entire world is screaming the emperor has no clothes, is it unreasonable for Editor to assume back home we are not going around proclaiming the handsomeness of the emperor’s $12,000 suits?

Anyone, our comment after reading the article was to suggest the writer has actually been very, very cautious in his comments. He has not attacked the US military for its criminal ineffectiveness in getting the Afghans trained up, even though we’ve had 10 years to do the job. He has not mentioned that NO area stays pacified once the US withdraws its very heavy presence. He has not explained that if the enemy surges right back the minute you withdraw your surge, you did not defeat him; he just figured there was no point to fighting you when you control the air and have unlimited firepower. He has not gone into how the US to this day keeps chopping and changing its tactics – if you can call them tactics – and seems even more confused about how to fight an insurgency than it did back in 1960 when we were just sticking our toe into Indochina. He has not analyzed that you cannot send 250,000 people to Afghanistan (half contractors) and use 85% of them for support, while just 15% of them are actually doing the fighting, and of the 15% two-thirds are deployed for force-protection. He has not mentioned that you cannot win at counter-insurgency if you do not secure the border and the enemy has sanctuaries from where an endless stream of men and material stream into Afghanistan. He has also not gone into how incompetent the Taliban really are at the business of war, so that we are fighting a fourth-rate opponent and still not winning.

In this connection – Editor has said it before but no harm in repeating it – Editor loves the American phrase “complex attack”, as in, “insurgents staged a complex attack”, leaving one to believe that woe, the enemy is really competent. What the Americans call a complex attack is two jerks ramming an explosive-filled truck into a gate (or trying to, usually they seem to get blown up before the hit the gate), while four jerks who are likely flying higher than kites on the local brew fire wildly and get themselves killed in short order. What the Viet Cong sappers used to mount were complex attacks. They would spend months doing reconnaissance, including infiltrating American defended areas in the guise of servants or villagers. The sappers were their best trained troops, and had everything planned to the minutest detail – and with Plan B, C, and D planned in the minutest details should Plan A go wrong. They knew precisely where the mortars were to be positioned, where the rocket launchers were to be located, where the primary fortification breach was to be made, where the first, second, and third feints were to go, who was to cover whom and when, who was to block reinforcements, how American movement within the compound was to be stopped, on and on. These people were professionals. The Taliban? Clowns. But we still haven’t defeated them.

0230 GMT February 7, 2012

The other day Editor learned about Intermittent Explosive Disorder and did several eye-rolls. Just further evidence of the drive by American shrinks to categorize everyone in the world as having at least one disorder. Many people believe they want to do this as a case of empire building and to earn more money. Editor’s theory is they do it so they don’t feel lonely. He believes shrinks are crazy as coots (or is it cooties) and if they define everyone as crazy then they can say “see? It isn’t just us. Everyone is nuts.” Whatever their motivation, if everyone is nuts then by definition being nuts is normal and no one is nuts.

But doing the weekly shopping at Whole Foods (aka Whole Paycheck) yesterday Editor came very close to an expression of IED. Only reason he didn’t let loose was because this single dad with a very cute 3-year old daughter who was acting up was in Editor’s line of fire. The provocation was pepper. When Mrs. R. IV left the house, there was one bottle of pepper half full in the house, about 2-ounces worth. For some reason over the next eight years Editor never remembered to get pepper. So each time he’s eating his salad or eggs he’d say: “Dang, MUST remember to get pepper.” And every week he’d forget. Yesterday he remembered. He went to where the salt was, looked up, down, right, left, no pepper. He asked a store worker who explained the pepper was in the spice aisle, not with the salt. Editor should explain he is dyslexic. Every case of dyslexia is different. Editor’s case including a very deep annoyance when people are not being logical. First, it’s salt and pepper, you mention the two together, and you put them next to each other on the table. Next, even if you say pepper has to be with the spices, why is the salt not in the spice aisle? Why two aisles away? Editor started to seethe. He made it to the spice aisle, and of course could not read any labels because the spice bottles are tiny. (Lots of people were there staring at spice bottles – they couldn’t read the labels either.) Editor started to boil. Then he saw the prices on the tiny bottles: $6.99. Editor started to shake with fury. Then he found: white pepper, peppercorns, pink pepper, lime-pepper, curry pepper, yellow pepper, on and on – but no ground ordinary pepper. The pink pepper was the last straw. Editor was getting ready to start smashing the spice shelves when the cute little tyke had a meltdown – her dad had spent even longer than Editor at the shelves, trying to locate oregano. So naturally Editor had to help the dad calm down the tyke. When she was calmed down Editor told her: “Now you’re going to be nice to your daddy who looks after you from now on?” and she said “No.” Dad’s face fell. All Editor could do was make a joke out of it and saying: “Looks like she’s getting in early practice on being mean to men” and which point the dad hugged Editor tightly and wept on his shoulder while tyke looked amazed: she thought it was her sole right to cry. By the time this was all sorted out Editor forgot – once again – that he had no pepper. When the checkout clerk pro forma asked “And did you find everything today?” Editor said “Yes, thank you.” (Did Editor mention he is ADHD? Very short attention span.) Then he got home, peeled a cucumber, looked for the salt and pepper, and said “Dang, MUST remember to get pepper.”

Why India really is different So here it is at the airport at Tirupati, India (where the famous temple is located). Its 0700, the first flight of the day is about to land, and there is no sign of the ATC crew. So the airport’s deputy manager gets a hold of the fireman (yes, the fireman – the guy who drives the standby firetruck) and tells him to hie over to the tower and guide in the flight. The fireman at best speaks “broken English”. The fireman gets the flight in safely. The regional director of the Airports authority of India says the ATC staff simply forgot to turn up for duty. An inquiry has been ordered. Read about at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-16866616
Stories like this make Editor very nostalgic for home.
This reminds Editor of his American sister-in-law’s first visit to India. The lady gets creeped out by bugs. So there she is, disembarked at the airport in the nation’s capital, and in a corridor she sees kindly old Indian gent bending down to touch the floor, straightening out, walking a step, bending down, and so on. When she passes him she sees he is righting the cockroaches who have gotten spun over on their backs and are helplessly waving their legs in the air.
Now really, how can you not love a country like that? This is India at its best: live and let live.
This story Editor has told before but it’s another pure Indian story. When Editor and Mrs. R. IV ran away together, Editor had no money, and so he/Mrs. R IV were living in a one-room apartment (15-feet by 10-feet) on top of someone’s garage. It was really the servant’s quarter, but the landlord had no servant (no servant would stick as the landlord, his wife, and her sister were quite mad). A very steep, very narrow circular stairway provided access to the room from the back alley.
One day Editor/Mrs. R IV returned home to find a large bull intently inspecting the lock on the access door. Cow refused to move from its inspection and Editor had to take off his shoe and threaten the cow with a smack on its skinny butt before it went off in a huff. Well, the next day when Editor/Mrs. R IV arrived back home, the door was busted. Telling Mrs. R IV to wait downstairs in case the robbers were still in the room, Editor started up the stairs and ran smack into the back end of a bovine creature. The stair is the width of a man’s shoulders, so you can imagine the bovine creature is well and truly stuck. It had broken in and had decided to pay Editor/Mrs. R IV a social visit. A quick inspection reveals it is the same bull as was inspecting the lock. Well, to cut the story short, you really have not lived till you have gotten a large bull stuck on your circular stairway unstuck, backed down one step at a time, and seen off the creature with many “and if I see you doing that again I’m going to get really mad”. If you live in India, you experience incidents like this every day. No one thinks they’re strange.
Needless to say, while Editor is getting bovine down the stairs the landlord appears, dressed only in a towel. He is not the least bit interested as to what is going on on the stairs. He’s come to bum a cigarette off Mrs. R IV who at the time was really too young to be smoking, but there it is.
Why is he dressed to the nines in a towel? Because when his wife and sister-in-law would get mad at him, which was every day five times a day, they would go off shopping – after locking his clothes in a closet so he had to stay home. So he had to roam around dressed in a towel. Why did he bum cigarettes off Mrs R IV who was the same age as his granddaughters? Because when the wife was mad at him, she’d refuse to give him money to buy smokes. The gent, by the way, was a retired Indian Air Force Air Vice Marshal, the equivalent of an American major-general. No one in India thought any of this the least bit strange.
Another time – same residence Mrs. R. IV’s favorite cousin has come to visit. They’re talking and smoking outside, Editor goes off to sleep as its his bedtime. He is rudely awakened by thunderous knocking on the door. He stumbles out of bed and to the door, to see (a) Mrs. R. IV; (b) fave cousin; (c) two rather large policemen. One policeman says: “we caught these girls jumping the gate of the house two down, and this girl claims she is married and this is her house, and that this is her sister.” “Ah yes,” says Editor, “the two definitely belong here…” Now, in India you’re supposed to give policemen money, but Editor as usual has no money. So with great presence of mind he grabs six apples he had purchased the day before, and puts them into the policemen’s hands, with many apologies that these two young girls who should know better have inconvenienced them. Police look stunned and confused as no one has ever given them apples as a bribe before, and push off quietly. Turns out fave cousin was interested in a young man who lived two houses down, and had decided to drop in him unannounced in the middle of the night. When he refused to come to the gate, Mrs. R IV and fave cousin decided to jump the gate – climb it, really. In India houses are built with tall walls outside and even taller gates. When Editor told this story to others, no one finds it the least strange. This is India, after all.

0230 GMT February 6, 2012

Letter from Major A.H. Humanyun on the US, Pakistan ISI, and Osama Bin Laden

Lieutenant General Khwaja Ziauddin (Retired) nominated as army chief and promoted to four star on 12 October 1999 who had served as Director General Inter-Services Intelligence Agency from 1998 to 1999 in an interview in November 2010 with Pakistan’s GEO TV made following important revelation:

US was not really serious about apprehending or eliminating Osama Bin Laden in the period 1998-99.

The ISI furnished US with a report that Osama could be targeted at a feast being held at Dasht I Margo in Nimroz but US CIA declined to take action as UAE Royal family was also in attendance.Thus the US lost a good chance of eliminating Bin Laden.

US funded ISI special force had the capability to apprehend Osama Bin laden in few months had Musharraf’s 1999 October coup not taken place after which this special force was disbanded by Musharraf.

Musharraf’s nominated DG ISI General Mahmud questioned General Zia in 1999 after the coup as to why General Zia was planning to capture Osama Bin Laden and hand him over to USA as it was against Pakistan’s national interest.

General Ziauddin summed up General Musharraf as a chronic liar.

General Ziauddin stated that General Musharraf literally begged Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to go to Washington on 4th July1999 and request President Clinton to ask the Indian military to agree to a cease fire and give safe passage to Pakistani troops stranded in Kargil and to request India not to escalate the conflict.

US intelligence point of contact Major Sheehan designated to liaison about Osama with ISI used to be dead drunk at most time. An indicator of US non seriousness about Bin Laden.

That Mullah Omar had agreed to a trial of Osama Bin Laden on terrorism charges but the USA showed no interest.

Editor’s comment Fascinating stuff. Editor had no idea that General Musharraf, who as far as Editor recalls did not bother to inform his Prime Minister (and thus nominal master) that he was launching an attack on India, had to then ask the same Prime Minister to save his, General Musharraf’s, bacon. That the US put enormous pressure on India not to escalate and that the Government of Indian cravenly agreed is, of course, no secret. That the US applied an appalling double-standard is also no secret: US arrogates to itself the right to whack anyone anywhere in the world when it feels like it, but India was not to supposed to retaliate after it was invaded. But one can’t blame the Americans for the completely spineless behavior of the Indians. Kargil 1999, attack on Parliament 2001, and Bombay 2008 are only the latest in a long series of events where India begged the United States to allow India to kiss Uncle Sam’s rear end, starting with Kashmir 1947-48 (US/UK), China 1962 (where US asked India not to use its airpower leaving India to get soundly beaten), 1965 (US with Russia), 1971 (US with Russia), 1986-87 (US), plus several cancelled operations which were aimed at Pakistan insurgents attacking India (US). We haven’t mentioned the Maldives and Sri Lanka because that was India willingly going along with US, not US stopping India. Once upon a time Editor used to get very angry at the way the Indians just gave in time and again to the Americans, but now that Editor is older it somehow doesn’t seem to matter as much that for 65 years India has played America’s pet poodle.

More to the point, we did not know the US was prior to 2001 already working with Pakistan ISI to neutralize Osama. We have a slight disagreement with the assertion the US missed a good chance to kill OBL when he was in Nimroz Province (Afghanistan). At that point the US did not have the capability to send cruise missiles after an individual while ensuring no one else got hurt. It would have been unfortunate; to say the least, if the UAE royals had gotten whacked as well. (Presumably they were out hunting.) Besides which, getting information is not good enough, it has to be confirmed according to US standards. As for the US liaison with ISI being drunk, this again is not indicative of US lack of concern. The liaison’s job would be to keep tabs on the Americans; any real interaction would be between the Americans and ISI officers at a much higher level. It could even be the Americans were keeping the good major drunk as a way of neutralizing him.

That Mullah Omar offered to put OBL on trial is known. What can one say except the US has made plenty of decisions which in retrospect it might not have found to its advantage. This is called the Human Condition. We are all wiser after the event.

What we find intriguing is why the new ISI Chief told General Musharraf that handed over OBL to the US was not in Pakistan’s interest. We’d love to know what Pakistan’s interest was in keeping the head of Al Qaeda safe.Remember, Aq and the Taliban were two different animals. Pakistan’s interest in the Taliban was/is logical, as we have said many times. But Pakistan and AQ? What gives, people?

Readers should be glad someone is reading the blog so they don’t have to Eric Cox writes in to say the Mexican mountains in the west are the Sierra Madres and not the Andes. Normally Editor knows these things and makes mistakes because of the rapidity of writing and senior moments, but in fact this is one thing Editor did not know. He’s always thought the Sierra Madres are the northern extension of the Andes, whereas reader Cox informs they are the southern extension of the Rockies.

More to the important point, Mr. Cox says that because of the Davis Bacon Act, workers on public transportation projects have to be paid according to a certain schedule. He calculates the Davis-Bacon wages for Maryland to be $36/hour including benefits and excluding payroll taxes. We took a look at the website as he suggested, and without making it too complicated, $36/hour is a reasonable estimate for an average. We checked on the cement, it’s cheaper by a lot in Mexico but US imports the stuff from Mexico to take advantage of the low price. Going by Indian steel prices, its likely Mexican steel prices are also lower than the US, but again, the US can import what it wants.

Now, $2.50/hour is what the lowest paid unskilled Mexican laborer gets. Certainly the average wage will be more than that. Nonetheless, the wage differential would explain a lot of the 13:1 difference per lane kilometer between the Maryland Road we discussed (Maryland 200, Inter County Connector) and the Mexican highway. Which still doesn’t explain how come the Mexicans are building their highway across the mountains with lots of tunnels and bridges for what it costs us to build a highway in the plains.

0230 GMT February 5, 2012

Some really weird stuff that does not involve the US it involves the UK. Last year India told the UK it didn’t want any more aid because it didn’t want the negative publicity the British department giving the aid attached to the money – India very poor, millions dying but for our aid, and so on. India still gets about $500-million of bilateral aid from various countries, three-quarters of it from UK. though it is now officially listed by the World Bank as a middle-income country, and itself gives to developing countries almost as much aid as it receives.

According to UK Telegraph the British Government “begged” India to take the money because it would be too embarrassing if India did not. Meanwhile, countries that really need aid like Burundi are being cut out because of budget reductions.

We are sitting here scratching our heads trying to make sense of this really odd story. Particularly when we learn that one aid project involved putting GPS on garbage collection carts in the city of Bhopal, and also putting GPS on Bhopal buses, even though most buses in the UK itself don’t have this facility. Another project involved supplying 7000 TVs to villages that did not have electricity. None of this makes any sense.

Scenes we never imagined we’d see So here’s the Muslim Brotherhood, and it’s accusing the West of ignoring Egypt. This is the same Muslim Brotherhood that previously hated the West and what it stood for. Then the Brotherhood is out in the streets of Cairo, stopping demonstrators from marching on Parliament. Why? Because the protesters are calling for the Army to step down from power, but the Brotherhood accepted a deal the Army offered for a gradual phase-out of its role in governing Egypt. Of course the Army has no intention of honoring the agreement, and the Brotherhood knows it, but that’s another story. Essentially the Brotherhood is now protecting the same Army that helped brutally suppress the Brotherhood for decades. Brutally here does not mean that the Brothers were denied their bunny slippers while in jail. The movement was hounded, arrested, tortured, executed, murdered, all with gap abandon and much enthusiasm.

Re. the west ignoring Egypt. Kids, be thankful, very thankful that the West is ignoring you. Having helped overthrow the dictatorship, the greatest favor the West can do you is to let you figure out things on your own. Trust us.

More proof – not that you needed it – that this country is now run by idiots Once America led the world in the percentage of its people with college degrees. Now we’ve fallen to sixteenth, because at least half of people who embark on a college degree drop out.

More proof that this country is now run by incompetent idiots In Mexico, they’ve completed a 230-km , $1.5-billion, 4-land highway across the Andes. To get an idea of what the terrain looks like, visit http://geo-mexico.com/?p=721 The picture is where the world’s highest suspension bridge has been built. (Higher bridges are under construction in India and China.) The highway goes through 63 tunnels. A picture of the bridge is at http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/global-observer/mexicos-baluarte-bridge-becomes-worlds-highest/2568

Meanwhile, back in the good old USA, in Montgomery County and Prince George’s Counties, Maryland we have a new six-lane road 29-km long. The cost is $2.6-billion. The terrain is more or less flat, for all that someone called it “gently rolling”. We are told this may well be the last highway of any significance built in Maryland for a generation, because, you see, America is broke.

Anyway. The Mexican highway which is built across mountain, costs $1.6-million per lane kilometer. The Maryland road cost $22-million per lane kilometer. According to http://www.indeed.com/salary/Construction-Worker.html, a US transportation construction worker makes $13/hour (2000 hours a year). As nearly as we can make out, a Mexican laborer makes $2.50/hour or five times less. Now you can figure this out for yourself: the Mexicans get paid five times less than we do, but their road comes in at 13-times less per lane kilometer.

Okay, so we don’t know what concrete and steel cost in Mexico vs the US. Maybe its cheaper. But we have to say this once again to make the point clear. They built their road across mountains, and rather nasty ones at that. We built our road in the plains. Building in the mountains with all the tunnels and bridges is very, very much more expensive than building a road in the plains, with the most complicated part being the interchanges.

We leave you to ponder all this. Editor is so aggravated just writing about it he’s off downstairs to hit the ‘fridge for more chocolate.

0230 GMT February 4, 2012

With statistics, one has to be careful what exactly a particular set of figures mean Unless, of course, you are using statistics for propaganda, in which case you can twist them around to suit yourself. Two recent statistics make our point.

First, the Government announced that the unemployment rate has dropped to 8.3%. That’s still quite ghastly, but for sure better than the almost 10% at the start of the Great Recession. Problem is, apparently the participation in the labor force has dropped from 66% in 2007 to 64% in 2011. Now, while doubtless the reasons for this need deep study, the reality is that if those people were looking for work, or if they were counted as unemployed, the unemployment rate would be back to 10%, meaning nothing has changed in four years.

Second, the Congressional Budget Office released a study saying government employees are paid more than the private sector, once benefits are included. The problem is the CBO did not compare pay for a type of job in the government sector versus the same job in the private sector. The Bureau of Labor statistics has done that, and concluded private sector workers make 25% more than government workers.

In both cases the statistics – 8.3% unemployment, government servants making more – are true. But they are also not true when looked at in other contexts.

Then you have people playing with numbers that are just plain wrong Representative Allen West (R-Florida) has lambasted the Obama Administration for taking our military back to World War I levels. Well, till 1913 the US Army had 75,000 soldiers (100,000 authorized) and no matter which way you look at it, 480,000 is not below 75,000. The higher figure is where the US Army will end up in 2015 after reductions of 80,000.

A different kind of situation is creating by perfectly honest people making statements without understanding the history of a situation. A decorated young military man maintains that Vice President Biden’s statement that the Taliban are not our enemy is treason. Hate to say this, people, but the Taliban were NOT our enemy till we declared war on them. They hadn’t harmed a single American. True they sheltered OBL. But all they said was “show us your evidence, and we’ll put him on trial”. Was this their final position? No, it was their initial position, and what precisely do you expect them to say when out of the blue a fiat arrives from the US? Scramble to bow and scrape and go “Yes, massa, at once massa?” And please remember, to this day the Taliban have not attacked the US outside of Afghanistan, which they say is their country that they are defending against US invasion. So yes, they are our enemy. But that’s because we declared war on them, not the other way around. And by the way, has the US ever actually revealed the evidence on which it bases its charges against OBL? Please to remember: the US has refused to hand over a Cuban national who is wanted in Venezuela and Cuba for a terror act, bombing a civilian aircraft. He won’t get a fair trial, we say. Sure, and the terrorists we’ve detained under military law were questioned fairly and have been given fair trials. Titter. Of course, Editor has long said all these people should have been shot on capture, but then no one listened to the Editor back home and no one listen to him here. Our point is that we honestly should be careful before we accuse other countries of harboring terrorists and then going and attacking them on that basis.

If this sincere young American military person believes Mr. Biden has committed treason, what does he have to say to the reality that a country we call our ally, Pakistan, actively works to kill Americans in Afghanistan? Is it then not treason to work with Pakistan, and to give them money? The Afghan Taliban are at least fighting for their country, whether we consider it right or wrong. But Pakistan has an army of 40,000 Pakistani citizens – the so-called Pakistan Taliban – that are fighting against America. In essence these people are mercenaries recruited, trained, armed, and maintained by our so-called ally. Why has the US, from 2001 onwards, eleven years now, tolerated this situation? So it’s not just Mr. Biden that needs to be questioned. It’s Presidents Obama and Bush, and a slew of vice-presidents, senators, defense secretaries, top military leaders and so on. If Mr. Biden is guilty of treason, so are all these people. Re. the generals/admirals: “I was following orders” is not an excuse under a treason charge. Aiding and abetting America’s enemies is treason. Pakistan is our enemy, whether the government chooses to admit or not.

And if this young man believes Mr. Biden should be tried and hanged, so should all these other persons, and Editor for one enthusiastically supports the notion.

Yet another situation is created when people decide to give their own meanings to words Thus a recent study by the Centers for Disease Control redefines rape. This heinous crime now includes sex after making promises that the maker knew to be untrue, or indicated they would be unhappy if the person did not have sex with them. Huh? The CDC study tried, by its own lights, to be fair. It spoke equally of sexual violence against men as well as women. It concluded, using the same criteria that one in four men is a victim of sexual violence. So fellers, next time you’re drunk and have sex with your girlfriend’s girlfriend, and your girlfriend comes after you, you can stop her in her tracks by pointing out under CDC standards you were raped. You were impaired because of Demon Liquor, and so your consent was not freely given. On the other hand, maybe you had better not say in your defense: “Your girlfriend raped me” because then you will undoubtedly be a victim of real sexual violence at the hands of your girlfriend.

So are there ANY statistics or facts about which there is absolutely no doubt? Of course. Here it is another Friday night and Editor has no date. No matter how to look at it, there’s a fact you can’t argue with.

0230 GMT February 3, 2012

Comment from a top Indian aviation analyst on the choice of the French Rafale Strange are the ways of the Indian Air Force which is still very much in the 'Biggles' era ! The rationale is that it should look good, fly good and to heck with the costs!!

The matter is compounded by St Antony's Bible, aka Defense Procurement Procedures which is followed as if carved in Stone on the Mount. So the Rafale was 'L-1' which was always known but what about political fallouts? The British, Germans, Italians, and Spanish are not amused and Uncle Sam has earlier been slighted.

The French have messed up on the Scorpene submarine programme, have taken four years and $ 2.4 billion to upgrade 51 Mirage 2000s and now they are rewarded with the $ 20 billion (and counting) programme for an aircraft which is still not fully developed (AESA radar etc.). But don't forget - the Mirage 2000 also was sans weapons when it came and it has taken 10 years for the Su-30K to evolve into the Su-30MKI of Air Show fame! The tradition continues...

A bit of explanation is needed. Mr. Anthony is the Indian defense minister. His Number One priority is not the defense of India, but showing the world that he is so pure he would never be improperly influenced in the matter of weapons procurement. Not only must no one be in a position to suggest St. Antony signed a deal for bribes or favors, no one should ever be able to say that the Indian defense minister thought about taking a favor or money for signing a deal. So Indian defense procurement, which to be fair has been dysfunctional for many years before St. Antony became Defense Minister, has ground to a halt. Dozens of very major programs are years and decades behind schedule, to the extent the services’ equipment looks like it has come from a junkyard. Then you have programs which have been signed but are completely messed up, like the ones our analyst friend mentions but also including the T-90 MBT and the Soviet aircraft carrier modernization. Programs are not just delayed to the extent national security is endangered, they massively overrun in terms of costs. But that all is secondary: St. Antony’s purity must not be impugned, that is the Number One priority. There is no one of sufficient stature to give Mr. Antony two tight slaps (to use the Indian expression) and tell him to do his job. The Prime Minister of India, an all-too-honest-and-too-decent a soul, is not in the habit of beating up his cabinet ministers. The head of the ruling party, Mrs. Sonia Gandhi, is in no position to say anything to a man who says purity must be maintained because it was her accepting a bribe on the Bofors medium gun – 26 years ago – that started the current mania of everyone rushing to prove they are the purest of them all.

Just about the only programs that are on track are those with the US Government. There is no question of bribery and American companies are not in the habit – with India at least – of signing a contract than wanting to renegotiate it upwards every year. The Russians, who have the filthiest habits when it comes to honoring contracts, are the past masters at this. If India refuses to keep paying more, the Russians simply stop work. No Indian defense minister – including the present one – has shown the slightest courage in walking away, if necessary, from Russian contracts. If you roam around with a large “Kick me, I am a complete ass” sign on your butt, you can’t blame people when they kick you. So it’s the Indians we blame, not the Russians. Of course, getting to the point where the Indian Government signs a US contract makes the Trojan War and the Odyssey look like 30-minute events.

His Royal Highness Maharaja of Patiala Our analyst friend, in an attempt to buck-up Editor’s morale re. dates on Saturday nights adds: “What is this nonsense about age? You look in the 40s, behave as a teenager and so what if the US records have you married four times? The erstwhile Maharaja of Patiala was married 6 times and had 300 concubines and lo! His grandson will become CM of Punjab again and his grand affair with a lady from across the border will carry forward Maharaja Ranjit Singh's legacy of the lady from Lahore for whom a special bridge was built, appropriately known as 'Pul Kanjri'.

Okay, let’s deconstruct this. Editor looks in his 40s solely because of (a) makeup; and (b) he permits visitors only at night, and then the visitors have to sit facing a 400-watt light, behind which the Editor sits. Next, note the bit about “behave like a teenager”. This is our friend’s way of saying “immature, attention deficit, impulsive, no clue as to what you want, and prone to run after every attractive lady within sight, dropping everything else including earning a living.” Suffice to say this emotional make-up is of no use in getting dates on Saturday night, especially in Takoma Park, where 50% of the ladies prefer ladies. The other 50% may be hetro, but have been married several times and believe males are the sole cause of their unhappiness because men can’t behave like women (reverse Professor Higgins, My Fair Lady etc.) Next, the Maharaja of Patiala was, well, a King, and a rich one at that. Plus he was a good-looking, sportsman healthy type of fellow. Editor’s car is held together with duct tape (really), and as for looks, sorry to say this, but based on experience Editor has discovered there is no market for ancient old birds that are 5-feet six, weigh 192-pounds, are bald, wear -16 specs, closely resemble the shape of a rum barrel, and are considerably less entertaining than one. Plus the good Maharaja had in constant attendance a physician who was called on when – er – the flag drooped, so as to speak. Among other lacks, Editor does not have a physician in attendance.

We’d heard something about the Maharaja’s grandson carrying on with a Pakistani lady (we think both are married to other people, but you see, in India none of this inhibits anyone). As for the “Pul Kanjri”, Pul is bridge, and Kanjri is – er – lady of easy virtue and a fat bank account. The rest you can figure out yourself. This bridge was built the famous Maharaja Ranjit Singh in the early 19^th Century so that a lady of whom he was enamored could conveniently visit him. Inspired by his friend, Editor visited the basement, got out the Lego set, and is busy constructing a bridge. You will not be surprised to learn the Editor’s motto is “Ever Hopeful”.

0230 GMT February 2, 2012

Finally saw something on the gym TV that made sense: a show called Transformers.

So yesterday we had fun making fun of the Germans Today we learn from UK Telegraph the unemployment rate for Germany is 5.5%, Holland 4.9%, and Austria 4.2%. Remember, Germany has had to work through the large numbers of workers from East Germany after unification, not an easy job. Back in the good old USA we’re being told “full employment” is now 6%, something we have to aspire to. May be its time to hie over to Germany and see how they do it: they have a considerably more expensive wage cost than we do.

One way they do it is they emphasize training and keeping keep their workers in bad times. German workers are also readier to take pay cuts in bad times because the top executives make low multiples of the lowest salaries. Also, the Government doesn’t wait till a worker is unemployed before stepping in. German companies, like Japanese, send their workers for training when business is slow, rather than firing them. Government helps out with the cost of keeping the worker on the payroll. Something Americans forget with their hire and fire policies is that you lose priceless experience when you fire people. Every company in the world now has access to the same money and technology that American companies have. So the only way to succeed is to have more productive workers. If you’re going to fire workers when you don’t need them, you have to retrain new ones when you’re hiring again. Sure some workers you let go will come back. But they will have lost out on the training you’d have given them had they stayed with you, and the longer they’re out the more like new, untrained workers they are when they return.

New US report on Afghanistan a major yawn The report is based on interviews with thousands of Taliban prisoners and says that the Taliban believe (a) they are winning the war, (b) they will defeat fear Afghan security forces, and they will take over after NATO leaves. Media is saying this has to be pretty depressing for NATO. We’re not sure why NATO is depressed. Neither are the Taliban attitudes a revelation, and nor is there any doubt the Taliban will take over. The report also says Pakistan continues to support the Taliban. While the report is at it, why doesn’t it tell us something useful, like if you jump into a swimming pool with twelve starved alligators, it’s not going to end well for you?

We should note that the US, France, and UK, at least, are not leaving Afghanistan in 2014. All that’s being said is that combat troops will be withdrawn. But even that is not correct, because thousands of special operations troops and lots of aircraft will remain. How long? Indefinitely. Those remaining behind will prevent an easy Taliban walk-in of Kabul and perhaps the 4-5 major cities, but the rest of Afghanistan will fall. Of course, the reports we get say most of Afghanistan is already under Taliban control, and has been more or less since the nasty regime was vanquished in 2001. All that has happened is that when the US has pushed back, for example in Southern Afghanistan, the Taliban go quiet, but the minute the US takes the pressure off, for example by shifting elsewhere, the area reverts to the baddies.

But please to note: when the US presence falls to 10,000 at a cost of $10-billion/year, Afghanistan will fall off the American public’s radar. As it is the US has gone to some amazing lengths to avoid casualties to its troops, to the extent people wonder is the US fighting or is it trying to avoid casualties. There is a difference, even if senior American officers get snarky when you ask them that question. After the bulk of forces come home, the US will intensify its efforts at what it euphemistically calls “force protection”, and deaths, which have averaged 15/month over the last ten years, will fall – we guesstimate – to 3/month. Americans have to be honest with themselves: if it weren’t for the budget expense, would Americans really care about what their troops are up to in Afghanistan? We don’t think so.

99% of the American people are not affected in any way by the war, aside from the money. Since they have nothing invested in the war, aside from the ritual shedding of crocodile tears about how much “our heroes sacrifice for us”, they don’t care. This suits the military and civil leadership just fine, because if the American people cared, they’d be paying attention, and they would be getting very disturbed at how the afghan war has been fought. For the leadership, it has been a very happy 10 years in Afghanistan. It has gotten to do just what it wants and has not been held accountable in the least for its failures.

Reader Eric Cox reminds us the lethality of electricity depends on amperage, not just on volts. Low voltage and high amperage is more lethal than high voltage and low amperage. He is, of course, correct. Tasers may deliver 50,000 volts, but it’s at milliamps, so the work being done (volts times amperes equals watts) is low. 50,000 volts is 50KV. Now, if you decided to hug a 66KV power transmission line the consequences will be unfortunate because of high amperage. You will likely cause a short and the Editor’s power will be lost, making him very grumpy because he will leave his computer and actually confront the real world. Even if you don’t cause a short, power will have to be shut off while the power people scrape you off the lines. Mr. Cox also reminds that though India is using 220V, the typical house is likely wired for 7-10 amps where the US house is wired for 20 amps (or used to be, nowadays 20 amps is considered pretty pathetic.) So, he surmises, the shock experienced will be the same.

Incidentally, we are told that American civil libertarians say 150 people have died due to tasers. This may well be so: the device is said to be safe when used against healthy people. The question to be asked is how many would have died if something other than a taser had been used, say a gun. Of course, the anti-taser people could retort that because police think tasers are harmless they are much more likely to use them than a gun, which even the police understand is lethal force.

Also incidentally, we read that one reason the Glock is such a favorite with American police departments is that the police are not properly trained in the use of firearms – not enough instruction or time on the range. With the Glock it doesn’t matter if you shoot with the same skill as a quadriplegic: its high rate of fire is going to bring the target down because some bullets are going to hit the target. Occurs to us: won’t the converse apply to the bad guys? They too can buy Glocks. It’s safer, we think, to stay home.

0230 GMT February 1, 2012

Germany – and therefore the EU – declares Keynes dead We’re a bit surprised that our fiscally conservative friends are not applauding what’s happening in Europe instead of dismissing the place as if it was an avocado republic. (To show how politically sensitive we at Orbat.com are, we’ve banished the term “banana republic” as insulting to Central American states. Since avocados are not a major export for anyone, the term “avocado republic” can hurt no one’s feelings.)

The EU has overwhelmingly voted to accept Germany’s very tough fiscal prescription: deficits have to be kept very low, which means that spending has to be cut and taxes have to be raised, simultaneously. Failing which a Euro nation will be beaten with limp noodles till it accepts the errors of its ways. Germany has triumphed in a way that would have made old Bismarck weep for joy. (We have to say old Bismarck and not old Hitler because it’s not PC to mention Hitler). From the Channel to the border marches of the old Soviet Union Europe has accepted that what the German hausfrau deems prudent for her household is prudent for Europe. (We hasten to add that we are not being sexist when we use the term “hausfrau”. In Germany most men hand their paychecks over to their wives, and the wives give them pocket money while managing the rest of the money. So since the hausfraus run household finances, it is not not-PC to say what we just did.)

The EU holdouts are Britannia, which has proclaimed it will fight the Germans on the beaches, it will fight them in the streets, and it will fight them in its bedrooms, submitting only when the said German hausfraus promise to dress in black leather and rigorously apply horsewhips to the posteriors of said Britons; and the Czech Republic which says it isn’t sure it can get parliamentary approval for handing over the national budget to Berlin. The Germans are merely smiling and tapping their feet: they too have become PC and are waiting for the Czechs to read their history books to remind themselves what happened the last time the Czechs said “No” to Germany.

But so far the evidence from Europe is not hopeful for anti-Keynesians. Five nations have been undergoing the German cure: Ireland, Spain, Greece, Italy, and Britain and with the possible exception of Ireland the others are getting into worse trouble. The reason is simple. Reduced government spending is contracting demand, which means less in taxes is collected, which means the deficit targets get further away, requiring more cuts in government spending and so on down the spiral. UK has now been in recession longer than even in during the Great Depression, though admittedly the unemployment rate was higher then. On the other hand, in contrast to the Good Boy Euros, we have Bad Boy Iceland. It not only defaulted on its debts, it enormously increased its debt:GDP ratio to increase the safety net for people thrown out of work. The ratio went from 10% in 2007 to 80% or more in 2011 (http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/3396.htm). Unemployment, which had skyrocketed, is falling, home debt is falling, and bankers are again lending to the government. The nation’s banks have been recapitalized and are healthy (http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2011/10/26/how-iceland-recovered-from-its-near-death-experience/)

Letter on Occupiers The Occupy movement has deemed the income of the 1% illegitimate. They are, however, getting confused between those of the 1% who get their money from rent, and those who get their money from work. How can a person who has worked his/her way into the 1% assumed to have done something illegitimate, and have stolen from the less well off? Among the 1% there are, for example, large numbers of doctors and lawyers who are at the top solely because there is a demand for their services and they are very good at providing those services. The 1% includes others, like actors and sportspeople. Who is it they have stolen from to get where they are?

If the Occupiers have a complaint, it should be against the rent class, people who “invest” their money in fancy financial instruments like derivatives and in commodity speculation. They create no jobs worth note nor add much value to society. But even here it should be noted that much of the money off which American rentiers make their money has come from overseas. It certainly has not come from squeezing America’s 99%.

I still recall the young lady at the Occupy Wall street who said she had taken loans to get an English degree, only to find she cannot get a job, and at the least she shouldn’t have to repay the loans. But who conned her into getting an English degree? No one. That was her choice. If she is so foolish that she did not and does not understand jobs for English majors are few, how is that the fault of the 1%? As for the loan money she doesn’t want to repay. Does she understand the money has come from the taxes paid by all Americans, including mainly the little people she claims to represent? Does it bother her that she will be stealing from the little people, many of whom would love to go to college but lack the skills – or the money – to do so?

Is this police brutality? A gentleman at the Washington DC Occupy became mightily irate when the police arrived and began putting up notices saying the protests must vacate the government park in which they were camped. They can protest, 24-hours a day if they want, but they cannot camp there. Seems reasonable. After all, if Editor camped there to protest his lack of dates on Saturday, he would be run off very quickly, even though he would be only exercising his right to free speech. The park is for all people, not just those who say they are there to exercise their right to free speech.

This gentleman expressed his irate-ness by following the police and tearing down notices they posted, all the while making belligerent noises. He was tasered by the police and handcuffed. Two witnesses claimed police brutality because, they said, he was first handcuffed and then tasered. Photographic evidence does not back them up: it shows clearly he was handcuffed after being tasered.

Let us first say being shot with 50,000-volts is not a happy experience. If you doubt us, stick your finger in an electrical socket and see what 110-volts does to you. In India we use 220-volts, and since Editor from youth has been fearless at taking things apart (he never seems to be able to put them back together) he has been shocked many, many times. It is a very strong and very powerful physical assault on the body. They say 50,000-volts turns you into jelly, and of course people have died from being tasered.

The question is, what are the police supposed to do when a person resists arrest? Send for hot cocoa, pink bunny slippers, and blue blankies? Back in the day before tasers, the police would have subdued the gent by beating him with nightsticks till he complied. Is that preferable? Have people who claim police brutality every tried to subdue someone who may be larger – much larger – than them and very angry? To do so without someone getting hurt is near impossible. Why should the persons getting hurt be the police and not the person creating the problem? The police have an obligation not to use excessive force, no one has ever maintained they are to use no force. The gentleman has a right to protest the police notice. The way not to do it is to interfere in the police conduct of their duties.

Many of the Occupiers are young people who presumably go to bars. May we suggest as an experiment they try and break up a bar fight and restrain the participants? After that they will have every right to judge if the police used excessive force in this case.

0230 GMT January 31, 2012

This has to remain a secret between us, so be sure not to tell anyone. Editor may soon be very rich. The other day, in a desperate attempt to get the weighing scale to give him a lower reading, Editor took his wallet from his pocket, figuring okay, that has to count for a couple of ounces. Instead his weight went up a couple of ounces. He has repeated this experiment several times with the same result. Remove wallet. Editor gains weight. Clearly Editor’s wallet contains the secret of anti-gravity. The wallet is so light it has negative weight, which for those of you unfamiliar with the concept, can be due only to anti-gravity. Editor will keep you posted on developments, but first he has to patent his wallet.

Syria: we may actually see movement What started out as non-violent demonstrations against the Syrian dictator has now become a full-fledged civil war that is lapping at the Damascus suburbs. The Arab League’s mission having failed (predictably), the League has turned to the UN.

Also predictably, Russia and China have threaten to veto any security Council resolutions such as the one now under debate, which requires Assad to step down and step pout of Syria. That these two countries are part of the scum of the earth is no surprise, and nor is it a surprise that the west is forever gasping and panting after China’s enormous economic market.

What’s different this time is the west has threatened Russia that it will go ahead with its resolution, which is fully backed by almost all Arab League nations, and let Russia have the pleasure of explaining to the world why it is backing a ruthless dictator. In other words, the west is threatening to isolate Russia. China has gone very quiet but which way Beijing will jump when the shoving comes to the pushing is to be seen. Back in the day China and Russia could count on the Third World, which was chock-a-bloc with wall-to-wall dictatorships. But now things have changed: many of the same Third World countries are now democracies; more to the point, when the Arabs themselves are saying Assad must go, it becomes difficult for any outside country to say he must stay.

Now, as readers know we’re big on the Fairness Doctrine, and we have to note that while the Soviets may have been Numero Uno in the number of dictatorships they supported, the US was a close second. Of course that was a time of global conflict with the Soviet Union, and the US wanted allies regardless of their unsavory habits like not washing their hands after a bathroom visit. With the end of the Cold War the US changed but the Soviet Union and China did not. The reason was simply that starting from 1917 (Soviets) and 1949 (China) the first priority of the leaders of these countries was preservation of their rule by any means necessary. Every time a dictatorship falls, Russian and Chinese leaders get a bit more desperate because their time is coming closer.

This does not mean that the world’s transition to democracy is one smooth curve. You have plenty of lapsed states, Venezuela in our neighborhood being the prime example. Russia 2012 is itself a lapsed state. You have places like Ukraine who are going backward, and countries like Hungary and Ecuador where the leaders are trying their best to free themselves of democratic checks-and-balances. Egypt is not turning out to be the kind of democracy the West may have envisaged. Etc. But ups and downs notwithstanding, in the modern world it is becoming increasing difficult for leaders to justify to their people and to others why they must have dictatorial authority.

Meanwhile the Chinese, Africa and South America’s new wannabe imperialists are starting to learn the downside of the game. Twenty of their oil workers have been kidnapped in South Sudan. There have been previous attacks on Chinese workers, including in Afghanistan. If the Chinese send their own forces to provide security, its hey-ho we’re back to the 19^th Century. The inevitable next step is making sure the government remains friendly to you, and we don’t have to explain where that leads.

0230 GMT January 30, 2012

Global cooling? Readers may recall we mentioned that Russian scientists believe the world is headed for a cooling period, not a warming period. They said that the sun would start cooling in 2011. There is a tendency to look at Russian scientists as a bit crazy, not quite stable, so as to speak. But we said that since the Russians were predicting the start of a cooling period from 2011, we’d know soon enough if they were correct.

Now, what we did not know at that time was its accepted science that Earth’s temperatures vary with the sun’s activity. But the global warming division says the effect of CO2 overrides the cooling effect of the sun.

Well, UK Metrological Office (which is a firm believer in CO2 induced global warming) has released figures showing that after peaking in 1997, temperatures stopped rising despite ever-increasing CO2. Met says that there is a 92% chance that out to 2100 we will see sun-induced cooling cycles equal to greater than the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830) of 2C for Europe, but the increase in CO2 will negate that. www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2093264/Forget-global-warming--Cycle-25-need-worry-NASA-scientists-right-Thames-freezing-again.html The Met Office study was done with University of East Anglia and utilizes data from 30,000 global points.

Okay. We need to approach this very slowly, with no sudden movements to alarm anyone. First, please note that even UK Met Office is saying that out to 2100 there will be no net change in temperature. And as we noted, UK Met Office believes that CO2 is the important factor in increasing global temperatures, not the sun. So this has to mean something. Second, Met’s probability calculation is saying there is a significant chanced we could fall to the 17^th Century’s Maunder Minimum, the Little Ice Age.

Now, the article has people saying that the warming has stopped, and Met Office’s repeated predictions in the 2000s of higher temperatures have not happened. Met Office defends itself, and says the science is good, and it’s too soon to say it is wrong. But even Met Office is saying sun cooling will cancel out the CO2 temperature rise. The people who are saying Met office/CO2 believers are wrong as shown by the last 14 years, say that we will really get whacked temperature wise as early as 2022, which is called Cycle 25 (the sun has 11-year cycles, we’re in Cycle 24 now; Editor doesn’t know why its Cycle 24). An additional complication is that those who believe the oceans control temperatures (warmer sun = warmer oceans = warmer land) note that the Pacific in 2008 started cooling and the Atlantic is expected to start in the next few years.

Work your way through school like Newt – Not Now, people, Editor loves America. If he didn’t, he would up and move. But loving America is one thing, understanding it is another. The other day Newt created a bit of a minor furor when he said minimum wage should be abolished and school kids should be encouraged to work, so that they learn good habits and earn their way through college and on to success. You may be forgiven for thinking that Newt worked his way through college. Most people who deliver homilies on how others should lead their lives usually have some basis in the own experience for telling other what to do.

But we learn that as far back as 1995 Vanity Fair wrote an article that said Newt steadfastly refused to get a job to see him through college. His then wife – who worked – paid his bills, as did his stepfather. Newt made a case he shouldn’t have to work since he wanted to focus on his studies.

So you roll your eyes and say “There Editor goes again. We know he doesn’t like Newt, so he bashing him, once again.” But you would be mistaken this once. This is not a Newt bashing piece. Newt is what he is, a blow-hard, an egomaniac, a person of vast, superficial knowledge who nonetheless has pretentions to being an intellectual, a user of women, and a liar. In other words, just your average typical flawed human being.

No. Our bafflement concerns Newt’s supporters. Why are they supporting him? Doesn’t it matter to them the man has no integrity? You see, it’s no use attacking America’s politicians for being venal and ineffectual. Who puts these politicians in power? It’s us, not the Martians. Of all Newts sins, in editor’s opinion the most egregious was carrying on a campaign to impeach the President of the US for lying about his affairs when Le Grande Newt was carrying on an affair. There is a case to be made that Mr. and Mrs. Clinton had an arrangement between them and she accepted her husband could not keep his pants zipped. But the same is not true of Newt’s then wife. Why is this not bothering his supporters? Or is their case that it has to be Anyone But Obama, even if it’s the Creature From The Black Cesspool? Or are Newt’s supporters being secretly paid off by the Obama campaign? This theory, unlikely as it is may seem, would be more logical than accepting Newt’s supporters actually believe in him.

Why is Greece a scandal and not Illinois? After all this Newt bashing we feel obligated to note that feckless American politicians are everywhere, it is obviously not just a GOP problem. Reader Luxembourg forwards an article by John Rubino in http://dollarcollapse.com/the-economy/why-isnt-illinois-a-bigger-story-than-greece/ Illinois has $2.7-billion in unpaid bills, has $27-billion in outstanding bonds, and $80-billion in unfunded pension liabilities.

Honestly, we don’t know anything about Illinois or for that matter about any US state And we suspect that may be one reason Greece is a scandal and Illinois not, because more people know about Greece than Illinois. Plus, of course, Greece’s problems are far, far worse than debts of $130-billion. Greece’s debts are owed to other people, not to its own citizens. If Illinois goes bankrupt, it’s not going to affect the stability of the US dollar or take down the US economy.

Reader Luxembourg has told us that four Illinois governors have gone to jail and two were arrested, tried, and acquitted. From Wikipedia we learn that after one of the two was acquitted, 8 jurors received state jobs, and the gent’s attorney argued that the governorship has the divine right of kings. The jobs to the jurors alone should settle the issue of was the man honest.

But Illinois should console itself. In India’s largest state, Uttar Pradesh, they are voting for a new state government. Because of its enormous size, UP has to vote in phases. 38% of the candidates in the first phase have criminal records or are under trial but not yet convicted. (Trials in India tend to be like Newt or like Bill Clinton, going on and on.) http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/UP-1st-phase-poll-candidates-38-criminals-51-millionaires/articleshow/11663212.cms

0230 GMT January 29, 2012

Saw a new (for us) show on the TV at the gym, “Royal Pains”. The title says it all. Only thing of note to report is the show features a lady who by her looks has to be from India. She is either 6-feet 6-inches tall or the protagonist is a midget. Then we read that Fran “The Nanny” Drescher says she and her brother were kidnapped by aliens as children and chips implanted in the palms of their hands. This is not a likely story. Aliens do not implant chips in the palms of humans’ hands.

Who ratted out Osama? The US Secretary of Defense says it’s the Pakistani doctor who is under arrest in his home country. So you can go for Occam’s Razor, and choose the simplest explanation, and accept what SecDef is saying. On the other hand, given the Pakistanis want him tried for “high treason”, why confirm their suspicions and essentially condemn the fellow. Wouldn’t it make sense to divert attention from your main man by pointing fingers at someone else? Who knows.

We find the Pakistan government position untenable. And no, it’s not because as SecDef says Pakistan and US are on the same side, implying the man should be regarded as a hero or whatever. Everyone knows Pakistan and US are NOT on the same side but are enemies in the matter of the GWOT, the Taliban, AQ and so on.

If Pakistan wants to try the man for high treason, it is clearly saying that OBL was of the highest importance to the security of the Pakistan state. This is untenable, because Pakistan is condemning itself by taking this stand.

UK Independent has the story of how Osama was likely found through the doctor http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/doctor-who-led-us-to-bin-laden-was-cia-agent-says-us-6296129.html

Greece and the attack of the Euro Nanny State Greece has been told it has to give up control of its budget to qualify for continued bail-outs. To soften the blow, Greece is being told it is not being singled out, other states who fail to get their houses in order right quick will be subject to the same terms.

Now, we can get outraged at the demands being made on Greece (more likely no one cares enough to pay any heed to the issue, but we have to pretend its important, else we wouldn’t have anything to write about in the blog). Alternately, we can say beggers can’t be choosers. You wanna be the mistress of your destiny, you gotta stand up for yourself and take the consequences. Iceland did, and three years later its again open for business. Like them or hate them as smug, moralizing economic Huns, the Germans have a point. If they have to bail out Greece, Athens has to swallow its medicine even if it means having to swallow a large cow. Yes, it’s true that Germany benefited from Greek profligacy, because Greece bought lots of stuff from Germany. True but irrelevant. Bankers are not into some esoteric doctrine of fairness, they are into getting their kilogram of flesh. In Greece’s case, many kilograms. (We’re talking Europe here, so we can’t say pound of flesh.

Our advice to Athens is to tell the Eurobankers to go do something disgusting to Gulf camels, default, and take the consequences. Sure. Money can be a god we worship, but it can’t be the only god or even the Leader of the God Pack.

China claims success in war against deserts An interesting story from Xinhua, if true. It says up to the end of the last century China was losing 10,000-square-km/year to desertification, but reclamation projects have now reversed the trend, with 7500-square-km/year being reclaimed. There’s no intrinsic reason why China should not have achieved this, as you need 10,000 trees per square-kilometers to survive replanting, so we’re talking less than 10-million trees a year. This is not a big deal. Its just that with China’s official claims you have to be a bit careful. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-05/30/content_4618229.htm

This raises the question of why instead of whining and moaning the US is not planting more trees. An acre of trees removes the CO2 generated by one American http://www.coloradotrees.org/benefits.htm One-third of the US is forested; if we upped this to about 50%, that would take care of a whole lot of global CO2. US itself is not increasing by much: 3% annual growth would mean 2.7% increase in emissions http://emf.stanford.edu/files/pubs/22463/op53.pdf

0230 GMT January 28, 2012

Is 12-trillion barrels of oil enough for you? We’ve been saying the world is not about to run out of oil. Now you can read Business Week (p. 89, January 30 - February 5, 2012) and see for yourself: 1.2 trillion barrels of liquid oil, 4.8-trillion shales, and 6-trillion tar sands. That’s 340 years at today’s use rates. Business Week acknowledges the environmental issue in extracting unconventional oil. But hopefully people will learn to do it with less of an environmental impact.

Meantimes, what’s up with fusion? No good news, we’re sorry to say. The research proceeds as if we had all the time in the world, which we don’t. 2018 is the earliest a reactor will show it can generate net power, but it will be for short periods at a time. It will be the 2030s before a continuously-on fusion reactor will be operational. Given the leisurely pace at which US does things these days, 2040s seems more reasonable. The will come reactors which will show the electricity generated is is commercially viable. So give it till the 2060s before you see any significant number of fusion reactors. Why fusion? Limitless fuel supplies, no problem of left-over fuel (though there is a smaller problem of tritium wastes, tritium being a radioactive baddie you want to avoid) and you cant get a runaway chain reaction or melt-down.

US is actually moving fast on a defense program Military Sealift Command issued requests for tenders to refurbish LSD-15 USS Ponce for deployment to the Gulf as a mothership for Navy commandos. MSC wants the job done by summer. Work is to start by mid-February, and sea-trials to start in April. LSD-15 was originally scheduled to be decommissioned March 30. As from commandos and the small boats they use, the ship will carry MH-53 minesweeping helicopters. US Navy has about 35 of these helicopters and 14 minesweepers. Then there’s the dolphins.

Is Warren Buffett’s secretary one of the 1%? Here’s what passes for a serious discussion in the blogosphere. Someone figured that if Buffett’s pays taxes at 15% and if – as he says – his secretary pays taxes at a higher rate, she has to be earning at least $200,000 and perhaps even as much as $500,000. This clever gent notes that because of allowances and deductions and so on, if you earn – say $100,000, you don’t pay the max rate applicable to $100,000 right away. First you subtract the income that is not taxed at all, then you tax the next slab at 10%, and the next slab at 15% and so on (however it works in the US). So on that $100,000 you don’t pay $15,000, you pay less.

Clever gent says he has nothing against Buffett’s secretary making $200,000 to $500,000, he is sure she deserves it, but given her likely income, clever gent wonders if it’s appropriate for secretary to attend the Snooze of the Union address as an example of 99% when she might be in the 1%.

The problem with this argument is: was secretary invited as a representative of the 99%? We don’t see any evidence she was invited as representative of the Great Unwashed, or as the French so elegant put, the Without Underpants. No one has claimed she’s part of the 99%. All Buffett said was she pays a greater proportion of her income in tax than he does.

\Luckily, the Wall Street Journal has some data which helps clarify the debate and which clever gent might have consulted via a Google search before ranting. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204002304576627420875519978.html
Mr. Buffet paid 2010 tax at a rate of 17.4% of his income. Those earning between $103,000 and $163,000 pay an average of 18.2%. So voila, she is paying a great proportion of her income as tax than he is, and she was invited to help Mr. Obama make the point he considers this unfair. There’s nothing more to the invite.

By the war, before supporters of the clever gent write to us and say “you’re being sarcastic about what’s on the blogosphere? What about your blog?” But when have we claimed this is a serious blog?

Generally, if you work with figures all you learn, you learn that most often there is less to the figures than people using them claim. This is because people use the figures to make a point. They do not first do impartial research covering all bases and then come up figures. There’s a human tendency to use the figures that best support your case rather than be impartial. On top of which Americans consider it perfectly okay to manipulate figures to support their case.

0230 GMT January 27, 2012

At the Gym

At the gym, when the Editor was doing weights, he was spared having to watch TV. He doesn’t watch it home. When people express astonishment he ends discussion by saying it’s against his religion. This is one comeback that always works in America because we are so PC no one will dare ask: “And what religion is that?” When at school staff would invite Editor to join them in the Friday Evening Follies, Editor would say it’s against his religion to drink and dance. The truth was Editor was not about to spend $20-30, equally, he was not about to spend 3-4 hours having fun when he could be working. One day a new and bold young teacher did ask what was the Editor’s religion. “Seventh Day Adventist”, Editor replied, correctly figuring bold young thing would know Adventists don’t drink, but not know they having nothing against dancing and having fun.

But back to the gym. The doctor has put Editor on an intensive cardio regimen, where he is supposed to get his heartbeat to average 140 for an hour. He’s been doing the hour religiously, but the 140 he manages only twice a week as yet. Anyway, the cardio, because it’s all out, involves a considerable amount of pain – not that the doctor cares. In case you wonder why Editor listen to doctor, it’s because she’s from India and terribly cute. Editor is anxious to get her approval; he’s unsure why, it’s not like he’s going to get a date. Aside from the impropriety, doctor is at least half Editor’s age, if not younger. Further, no woman who has – er – done the things a doctor has to do to her patient (we draw a curtain to spare those of delicate sensibilities) can have the slightest romantic feeling about said patient. Still further, Indian lady doctors don’t go for partially-employed school teachers. At the very least it has to be another doctor. And no lady doctor who has patiently sat there while patient (Editor) blubbers on how he’s being mistreated by his wife (then wife) and going through boxes of Kleenex, can have the slightest admiration for said patient. Women do not have warm feelings toward men who are, to put it succinctly, total wimps where women are concerned, particularly when those women are their wives, present or ex.

But back to the cardio. The only way the Editor gets through the hour is by watching the TV – the weight machines obviously have no TV, but the cardio machines do. The distraction helps him get by. Editor watches without sound because he doesn’t want his mind further degenerated by what passes for popular entertainment. The ads are of precisely two varieties. You have women making oral love to candy, which makes Editor very angry and jealous because he wants the candy. Or you have a bunch of people who cannot dance to save their lives breaking into slow-mo dances because they got a deal on their tax refund (that’s before they get the notice from the IRS for claiming improper deductions), or their internet company (that’s before they find the fantastic low-price they’re getting is only a third of the total bill after the ad ons), or something equally stupid.

For some reason, at the time Editor goes to the gym, between 3 and 4:30, his only choices are soaps, CSI/Law and Order, or something called Burn Notice. What happened to the afternoon cartoons, or is Editor again fantasizing about a perfect America that never actually existed? The problem with the soaps – remember, Editor is watching without sound – is that attractive looking people are constantly either ripping of each others’ clothes or taking a veeeeeeeeeery looooooong time to die. For the second category you find yourself shouting “Die! Die! Die!”, which the other gym members find disturbing for some odd reason. For the first category, you can’t help thinking “this is soooo unrealistic”. Editor has been around a long time, and he can assure his readers no attractive woman has ever ripped off his clothes. Come to think of it, no unattractive woman has either. And Editor has never gotten close enough to attractive women to rip off their clothes. Plus, knowing how PC we are in America, there’s probably a gym rule requiring guests to not separate women guests from their clothes.

So: CSI/Law and Order. Let the Editor say that shows about people alternating between looking long and hard at fibers, with expressions that suggest they have discovered the solution to what’s on the other side of a black hole, and conducting long, boring, meaningless interrogations of suspects in sparklingly clean rooms with new furniture and tastefully painted walls are not particularly gripping. Plus they’re unrealistic. Everyone knows you get the suspect to confess by giving him the 3^rd degree, or by threatening to frame him for seventeen murders when all he did was spit on the sidewalk.

That leaves Burn Notice, which Editor admits he can watch for 30 seconds at go without flinching. (The rest of the time he has his eyes closed and is praying the exercise machine clock would just speed up a bit.) There is a minor problem with Burn Notice. The good guys seem to off acres of bad guys in each show and the police never come around. Everyone is running around with submachine guns carried openly, no one thinks this is odd. The hero can outdraw a man holding a gun on him at three meters, the baddie tastefully crumples while the hero gets a look that says “Cripes, I forgot to floss in the morning.” The good guys get shot, gassed, run over, drowned, blown up, but never need to go to hospital. Burn Notice hero treats them at his mother’s house. Heck, he operates on himself at his mother’s house, while getting a lecture from her about the need to get a job (we assume this is what she’s saying, she has that look. The heroine is invariably severely underdressed – the locale is a beach city and there’s every opportunity taken to work severely underdressed women into every scene – and acts seductive around the hero, who however is too sensitive or too cool – or is it too respecting of her? – to make a move. You do learn he cares deeply about her when she gets shot or blown up or drowned and his left eye twitches one millimeter. You have to anticipate that twitch, it happens so quickly, but Editor by now is an expert. Everyone lives in gorgeous apartments and houses with great art on the wall, and drives nice cars, bad guys especially. Oh yes, did we mention the homemade explosives made from scratch using Mom’s favorite blender, boxes of ball bearings, and kilometers of wire? In one episode heroine is stirring rat poison into the blender mixture. If these people are so good, why has the CIA not drafted them? And of course no one’s cell phone ever drops a call.

The real problem is not even the shows. It’s that as Editor gets used to the exercise (and despite his age he still gets used to new forms of exercise very quickly) that 140 heartbeat target becomes harder and harder to meet. Now, of course, if his doctor would rip off his clothes he might get the heartbeat up. On the other hand, given his age he might easily assume doctor wants to be tucked into bed and read a bedtime story. Alas, while Bob Dylan may remain Forever Young, its true tide and time wait for no man. And neither does the mortgage company.

Oooookaaay, you say, and what does this have to do with the Global War On Terror? Truthfully, that’s a hard question to answer. Editor was about to write about the US Army’s proposed reorganization in view of the coming reductions (just as stupid as every other reorg), discuss what Nancy Pelosi may have on Newt (she said on CNN/John King she knows something that will ensure he never becomes Prez), inform you about the move to break-up Yemen (it should never have been unified), the latest trouble with South Sudan oil (Sudan and south Sudan cannot agree on the royalty split), and the SEAL Six rescue of two aid-workers in Somalia, but somehow Editor got diverted….

0230 GMT January 26, 2012

Julian Assange, Kremlin mouthpiece if Associated Press had not reported this story, we would have paid it no attention. It’s one of those stories that is so outrageous, you automatically toss it. Russia Today is a Kremlin-funded media company. It is to have a new talk show. The host will be Julian Assange, the same fellow who accused the US government of lies and deceit, and who said he had to release classified cables to show how lying and deceitful the US was. The Kremlin, of course, wouldn’t know a lie or a deceit because of its fabulous record of media honesty, government transparency, and democracy.

Back in the day before certain gays appropriated the adjective “Queer”, depriving the English language of a wonderfully versatile word, we’d have said Assange is a queer chap. (By the way, we suggest the gays responsible be whipped with limp noodles: you can’t just take words from a language and then go “Mine! Mine! Mine! No one else is allowed to use it!”) But after this latest news, we don’t think “queer chappie” does the man justice. How about cynical, hypocritical, self-promoting, dishonest, mercenary, narcissistic, emotionally dead, and financially greedy?

We hope defenders of Julian Assange wake up and accept he is no hero. And while we’re on the subject, can gays please give us the word “gay” back? The word means carefree, happy. It does NOT mean homosexual or lesbian. Big surprise: there are perfectly good words for homosexual and lesbian. The words are “homosexual” and “lesbian”. Also to be noted for the benefit of middle-schoolers: “gay” does not mean stupid or unacceptable behavior. They have words for those states, and the words are “stupid” or “unacceptable.”

If homosexuals do not give the words queer and gay back, we will launch a one-person crusade and call them “design” and “parchment”. Why? Because those words just happened to come to mind. And if homosexuals want to retaliate by calling grump, date-less Editors “kumquat” or “partridge”, the Editor will escalate to “gravitational constants” and “paperclips”.

So sometimes the outrage is misplaced and then there’s the Law of Unintended Consequences. We’ve been carrying on about the Keystone XL pipeline. Now, we did note that Plan B for the tar sands producers is to reverse the flow of several pipelines that move oil from Gulf ports inland. What we didn’t know is that some of the tar sands oil is going to move by rail. It adds $3/barrel to the cost compared to pipeline, but with prices what they are today that’s not a non-starter. Moreover, we’re told that there’s a lot of trouble over pipelines for the new hydrocarbon boom in North Dakota, so the black gold is already moving by rail. Read http://www.progressiverailroading.com/class_is/article/Railroads-aim-to-tap-Bakken-Shale39s-vast-traffic-potential--26587

The Law of Unintended Consequences comes in because the Greens, by blocking the pipeline, will lead companies to use rail, which is more carbon intensive than pipelines. Also, the environmental risk is greater. A 150-tank-car train will move 4.5-million gallons (its 90-120 cars as a norm now, but the trend is toward longer trains, Union Pacific has been testing three-mile long trains which we think is 300-tank-cars worth – will someone please check? So if there’s an accident…well, you can use your imagination. F

It’s being suggested that the Keystone XL no-go is going to benefit a certain railroad buff who is a Democratic contributor, namely Warren Buffett, who recently brought Union Pacific. If so, we would not be outraged because everyone pays off their congressperson or president, so what is the big deal.

0230 GMT January 25, 2012

An occasional reader asks why we don’t care for the environment because we have been beating up on Greens regarding keystone XL pipeline. First, no one claiming any degree of sanity is NOT a green. We live on Spaceship Earth, and as is often said, we have to look after our home. Also, while the Bible says that God made the Earth so that his favored creation – that would be us including Editor and Newtie – can enjoy its benefits, the Bible also says that the Big Guy wants us to be good stewards of his creation. Makes sense, because whoever the Big Guy or Big Gal is, who wants to create something and that a bunch of idiots mess up the place?

Everyone looks at the world through their own unique lens, and Editors happens to be national security. Editor’s belief is that America’s need for energy has distorted both its foreign and defense policies, and has cost the country in ways that no one has bothered to quantify, but can be shown to be considerable. As far back as 1973 when the A-wabs first started messing us up on oil – we seem to recall it was $3/barrel then, about $15/barrel in today’s money – America realized it needed energy independence. For reasons we need not discuss, the idea went nowhere. But it is as valid an idea now as it was then.

So: no doubt exploiting North American hydrocarbon resources has an environmental cost. Our point is (a) relying on imported oil also has a cost, and (b) we may as well take Canadian oil because Canada is a loyal and faithful ally instead of the oil going to the Chinese.

We have a larger problem with the Greens They don’t want us to do this, and they don’t want us to do that, but they never suggest alternatives. Solar and wind are not alternatives to carbon. We don’t want to insult anyone, particularly not people whose intentions are good and ultimately beneficial to everyone, but anyone who does not see solar and wind are not alternatives needs (a) to adjust their meds; (b) to get out an elementary text on energy, its production and its usage.

If people don’t want America to burn coal and oil they should be pushing nuclear, which objectively is far safer than carbon. If people are going to oppose nuclear as an article of religious faith instead of looking at the data, then they have to accept the consequences of their anti-nuclear stance and accept carbon. You cannot just sit in the middle of the playroom, grab all the blocks, and say “No. No. No. No. No.”

Another problem we have with Greens is their class warfare Having gotten the benefits of industrialization, Greens of every advanced country don’t want the poor around the world to get those benefits. This is not their intention, but it is the outcome of their policies. Back home, our Greens who enjoy a nice living don’t give an old, tired butt hair about Americans who need jobs. This is not right, and it certainly is immoral.

Recently, the US shut down one of its largest refineries which is in the Virgin Islands. The refinery is for sure partly a victim of globalization. More economical refineries are being built elsewhere. But it is also a victim of tough EPA regulations, which it could not meet without a massive and costly upgrade and for which it was getting fined. The company, again in the age of globalization, has no interest in spending money to upgrade when it can go to anyone of twenty or fifty other countries and built its refinery there free of the EPA. Two thousand people are out of work in a place good jobs are difficult to come by. What do the Greens have to say about that as they (presumably) celebrate the closing of another dirty industrial plant? Why, they have nothing to say. We have no figures, but is it a stretch to think that they have nothing to say because their jobs don’t depend on industry?

Ultimately we say that the national security argument trumps the environmental argument. Particularly when Canadian oil is going to get mined regardless. We can stop Americans from mining American oil, but we still need that oil, and so it will be mined somewhere else. Even if other countries had environmental safeguards of US quality, which they don’t, the net addition of carbon dioxide to the earth’s atmosphere is going to be exactly the same.

Last, old nuclear is not new nuclear To begin with the damage from nuclear accidents in the last fifty years is absurdly small. A few hundred people at most have died. Several hundred thousand people die because of air pollution caused by burning coal. To those who still worry about nuclear: the new nuclear is quite different. In old nuclear, if something went wrong, active human intervention was required to stop the plant. In new nuclear, if anything goes wrong the plant shuts down by itself – the core reaction stops. Moreover, you can bury these things underground – and pay a bit more for your power. Think about it, Greens. You want to phase out coal and oil, nuclear is the sole alternative. This also means putting a lot more money into fusion research than we have. But that’s another story.

0230 GMT January 24, 2012

Oh the horror! SoCal may have half-a-trillion barrels of oil This is in the so called Monterey shale formation, which has been yielding large quantities of oil so its not a new deal. But due to ever improving recovery techniques and the escalating price of oil, the additional oil in the formation suddenly become interesting. No one is talking of recovering half-a-trillion barrels by, say, next week. Right now the discussion is about billions of barrels.

This article http://www.aapg.org/explorer/2010/11nov/monterey1110.cfm dates from November 2010 and was sent by a reader. Over 300,000-acres is being surveyed in 3D to get a better handle on precisely what it will take to recover the oil. We’re wondering is the Monterey okay with the greens or is this something they haven’t as yet picked up on? Should be good for thousands of jobs: greens raising money and campaigning to stop the development. The Divine must truly have cursed America by endowing it with so much mineral wealth. It would have been so much better if this country had no resources, because then development would not risk damaging the environment.

This gives rise to a thought. How about we all give up our cars and houses and gadgets and movies and McDonald’s, and weave tents from organic grass in which to live. Then we can grow the food we need on our plots. Editor, for example, has 7000-square feet. His tent – or cardboard box– would take up perhaps 25-square-feet. He could probably produce a surplus of veggies on the rest of his land. Wouldn’t need electricity, when the sun went down we could all get right to sleep. No need to worry about sewer systems, just use the woods round the corner. We wouldn’t need transport since there would be no reason to go anywhere, what with the McDonalds’ gone. The jobless situation would be solved: we’d all have jobs, because we’d be working to feed ourselves. After we shut down the factories, we wouldn’t have to worry about the side effects of medicines, because we wouldn’t have any medicines except herbal ones. No need to worry about lazy public servants because we wouldn’t have a government. No more worries about the lagging performance of American students because we wouldn’t have any schools: we’d need the little tykes to help weave the tents and grow the veggies. No problem with entitlements because we wouldn’t have a government. We wouldn’t need social security and Medicare etc because most people would be dead of starvation or disease by the time they were 40.

Editor just had even a better idea. Why don’t the seven billion of us people on earth just collectively kill ourselves? Then you’d have an absolutely pristine environment. Thank you for suggesting Editor for a special Nobel prize.

Feminist confusion and the unexamined life When one decides to live life according to a fixed doctrine rather than having a set of universal values and continually examining your life to see if you are being true to your values, the result is confusion. Whether you’re a religious fundamentalist or an environmental fundamentalist, or (like the editor) a national security fundamentalist, the nice thing about being doctrinaire is you are freed of the need to think. Each time you confront a situation, no problem, pull out the Red Book or the Green Book or the Purple Book, or whatever, turn to page 122, and there is the answer to what you’re supposed to do. No need to think. But being doctrinaire can lead you into absurdity.

So it is with feminists who insist that if the husband is unfaithful, a true feminist must leave him. Parenthetically we wonder if true feminists hold themselves to the same rule, i.e., if they are unfaithful their husbands must leave them, whether or not the husbands want to leave. But that is question for another time. Readers will remember when Bill Clinton was caught with his pants – er – down, his wife was attacked by feminists for not leaving him. Now we have another case, the former chief of the IMF, whose wife, Anne Sinclair, is not leaving him after it was revealed to the public that he thinks pants are to be worn no higher than your knees.

Now, Ms. Sinclair, being French, can be quite sharp-tounged , unlike our own Mrs. Clinton, who prides herself on her manners. Ms. Sinclair has told the feminists “You leave your husband if you want to leave him. That is your problem.” She has further said she is not about to let others judge how she should run her marriage.

We need to fast-reverse a bit and ask, how did this business of leaving your husband if he is unfaithful come up. This dates from the dates when women were oppressed, or at least believed they were, and had no power. So the wife of a straying spouse supposedly had to choice but to shut up and put up. But the modern, powerful, feminist woman doesn’t have to put up with her husband’s straying. She is strong, independent, capable of looking after herself, and savvy enough to hire a good lawyer and take the s.o.b. to the cleaners. (To those who say: “but that was the case also when women had no power”, we say “Can you please not muddy the purity of the narrative with your incessant whining?”)

But what some feminists don’t seem to realize is that being a feminist does not mean you read from a book of doctrine. It means you empower yourself to make the choices that make sense to you without regard to the petty bourgeois conventions of middle class society. Ms. Sinclair, like Ms. Clinton, makes her choice to stay in her marriage. In both cases, we would be naïve to believe that the women did not known before marriage that their intendeds had trouble with their pants. Ms. Sinclair’s intended even told her not to marry him because he could never be faithful. But Ms. Sinclair, a feminist, decided to blow-off middle-class convention and decided fidelity was not a main issue with her. She made her choice as a strong, independent, and empowered woman, just as Ms. Clinton made her choice. Neither woman was a victim or an oppressed wife. In Ms. Sinclair’s case, aside from she had her own career as a broadcaster – and as far as we know continued to keep her career – she also has her own money (an inheritance), like a single digit followed by 8 zeroes worth of money. In her marriage, it is her husband who lacked the power. He got just a piddling half-a-million or so (the minimum you need to be a Washington one-percenter, poor thing.

Feminism means that a woman has to choice of a career. If this means she decides she wants to be a homemaker, that is fine and no one should criticize her for it. Feminism also means that if the husband wants to be the homemaker, that is okay too. Then of course the wife leaves him because she’s making more money than him, and women are biologically coded to go for men of higher status and earning power, as these are the best assurances of survival for her children. But that’s okay too. And if some men who’ve had four wives depart, and lacking status or money never get a date on Saturday night, and so spend their lives at the computer writing up blogs that three people read, that’s okay too. But that doesn’t mean if those said men have to like it. And that’s also okay. Everything is okay as long as it feels good, which may be why society is breaking down. But that’s also okay.

0230 GMT January 23, 2012

Further adventures with Microsoft Word 2010. So editor has been spending every available moment the last ten days formatting and spell-checking the new reference book, and of course, on long, technical documents you can’t expect the Word 2010 spell-checker to do much. It is a weak creature at the best of times, with the spelling ability of an autistic kindergartener, though possibly we insult the intelligence of kindergarteners. Anyway, when the spell-checker was working on Brazil, it informed the Editor that a Russian dictionary was not loaded. When asked to spell check Central and South America, Editor was repeatedly informed that no Portuguese dictionary was installed. Doing France and the French-speaking African states got the message that Editor really needed to load the Spanish (Bolivia) dictionary. Then while doing the English entries, spell-checker again demanded the Spanish (Bolivia) dictionary. When the Editor refused to comply – you don’t calm down a crack addict by giving him heroin – spell-checker said for Spanish entries it really, really needed the Swedish dictionary. And when Editor was spell-checking Hungary, the program somberly informed him he needed to load the Slovak dictionary.

One result of all this, as you have perhaps guessed, is that NO words were getting spell-check-corrected. Once in a while spell-check would correctly say “armour” should be spelt “armor”, but then when Editor asked “correct all”, forget correcting all, it wouldn’t correct the very next spelling of “armour”. This is just another episode for what passes as normal in the Editor’s existence.

If he could explain some of this to his students they might stop wondering why, when Editor is walking the corridors at school, he has a look as if his eyes are tightly focused on a point 10-light-years away. They would stop asking why he’s whacked out. He is not whacked out. It’s just the minute you put him next to a computer, the computer gets whacked out. But try convincing them of that. The kids have such faith in their electronic gadgets that when their calculator tells them 2 + 2 equals 5, they will argue with Editor when he says they’ve entered the numbers wrong.

Back to the alleged “real world”, here’s a short news update (family came unexpectedly for dinner, throwing Editor behind schedule on work)…

Pakistan One hundred retired generals, air marshals, and admirals have signed a petition asking the civilian government to permit former President General Musharraf to return home and contest elections. The general was forced out by the US/UK who wanted a civilian government because they thought (a) dealing with a civilian government looked better; and (b) a civilian government would be more pliable to US pressure to abandon the Taliban. President Musharraf’s problem was he wasn’t a real dictator; he wanted to be loved, so he permitted all sorts of nonsense a real dictator would notever tolerate. So he did get pushed out, and because the civilians, who had been persecuted by him, wanted to persecute him, he went off in voluntary exile.
Why should he want to return? Well, if he is reelected President that solves the Army’s problem. The Army wants to rule, but from behind the scenes, and a new presidency by the good general would nicely fit the bil. But the civilian government says it will prosecute him for the murder of Mrs. Benazir Bhutto. So the letter by the retired brass is just a gentle hint to the civilian government to get with the program.
In our opinion, the civilians will not agree. If Mr. Musharraf returns, he will have scores to settle with the PPP, Mrs. Bhutto’s party, which is now ruling. Whether the civilians can get away not agreeing is something that we have to wait and see.
Muting the war drums The Israeli chief of staff says a strike against Iran is very far off. Iran says it has nothing to say about the return of a US carrier task force to the Gulf because its not an increase in forces the US has maintained for many years, and that in any case it has no intention of closing Hormuz.
Don’t ask to explain what all this means. Our readers are sane, normal human beings, and explaining insanity to sane people is never easy.
Please read this for our discussion tomorrow http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9031478/America-overcomes-the-debt-crisis-as-Britain-sinks-deeper-into-the-swamp.html
This analysis is a bit mind-boggling because, it says, the US financial crisis was never as bad as being out. US banks were never in as much trouble as believed. Further, US has been successfully deleveraging – that means getting rid of bad debt, paying down other debt, and reducing the amount of debt overall. Deleveraging is needed before we can get growth again. By contrast to the US, the Euros are in really bad shape and it may take the UK, for example, a generation to deleverage.
Further, the article says US may be raising interest rates soon, and they may end up in the 2-4% range, something which will be an enormous shock to the bond and currency markets.

0230 GMT January 22, 2012

Correction: George Romney was head of American Motors, the Number 4 manufacturer, not General Motors. While our point about his pay remains valid, we’re surprised readers did not pounce on this major faux pas of ours. It remained to a much younger person who corrected us during the course of the conversation. So maybe we don’t have any old-timers readers of the blog because no one familiar with American autos during the US’s industrial heyday would have failed to see our mistake.

XL Keystone is actually the second kiss-off for the US and oil The Canadians have made clear their tar sand oil resources are going to get increasingly exploited. Some of that oil may still be coming to the US through existing pipelines. The technicalities such as which pipelines and reversing the flow and so are something we’d have to spend time studying, and that isn’t a priority for Editor right now, so we will leave it to other better informed to comment, if they want. Nonetheless, the Canadians are happy to build new pipelines to the west and to the east coasts. Aside from those who will benefit from the east-west pipelines, another group of Canadians is seeing silver linings in the US rejection of XL Keystone. These people say Canada is way too dependent on a single energy customer – that would be us – and it’s simply good business to diversify. Can’t argue with that.
But we learn that this is actually the second kiss-off for the US regarding oil. Last year when the president went to visit Ms. Dilma Rousseff in Brazil, he tried to kissy-face with her, offering US technical assistance and investment to help exploit Brazil’s vast – and growing by the year – offshore oil reserves. Ms. Dilma allowed she was anxious to improve relationships with the US, things having become a bit strained when Brazil was led by Lula. But as far as priority for oil was concerned, Brazil was already spoken for: by the Chinese. Apparently the Brazilian state oil company got into a financial jam some time back, and the White Knights came from the west, not the north, to help out.
But the US can console itself: we’ll always have the America haters to buy oil from, including the Islamic states and Venezuela. And if things get really bad, we can always kissy-face with Iran.
Of course, we can reasonably ask why are we limiting exploration right here in America. After all, we could be independent of everyone if we wanted, hydrocarbon-wise. And if you’re talking heavy oil, actually America has more of it than anyone in the world. Ah, but exploiting our own resources is not acceptable to our Greens. A peculiar state of affairs indeed.
By the way the non-partisan Congressional Research Service has released a study saying Congress has the power to rule on Keystone XL because it has power over foreign trade. CRS does studies when requested by any member of Congress. Rep. John Hoeven (R-ND) asked for this study. Proponents of Keystone XL are studying if they can get a Congressional vote forcing the President to approve the pipeline. http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/205579-report-congress-can-require-keystone-pipeline-approval
Yowzers, the Brits are gone crackers If you think our courts sometimes hand down weird decisions, take a look at Britain and feel better. The story we are about to summarize for you is at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/9029792/Bigamist-wins-family-life-human-rights-case.html
So, you have one foreign gent, who marries in England and is granted permission to stay on that business. He does various criminal things and is arrested, then he does selling cocaine and gets three years. He serves half the sentence and is prepped for deportation for the drug offence, under UK rules.
Stop! Says our petty criminal. I cannot be deported because I am in a loving relationship with a British woman and I will be deprived of my right to a family life. This lady is not his wife. She looks very cute in the newspaper photograph, so we forgive her. (Good thing Editor never became a judge.) The British court says “we can’t deprive the man of his right to a family life,” so the deportation is ruled no-go by the court.
But, get this. The court gave its decision even after learning that the said gent was in fact married to the said cute lady, without bothering to get a divorce from his first wife. Thus, he was not in a loving relationship but actually married and committing bigamy at that.
This is a definite head-banger. Please excuse Editor while he indulges.
This case comes right on the heels of another. There’s this imam who is described as Osama’s right-hand man in the UK. He lives in the Sceptered Isle because he was given political asylum after being tortured in Jordan and escaping from the clutches of the authorities. Bad move people, because after he got to UK, he began preaching hatred and violence against the country that gave him asylum. Meanwhile, like any decent Brit, he was drawing income support from the state. It took the British government years to get the courts to deport him. But then the European court told UK the man cannot be deported.
Why? Well, one argument he used to prevent his deportation from UK was that he would be tortured if he was returned to Jordan, and this violated his rights. So the British government got the Jordanians to promise he would be properly treated. But the Euro court says this is not good enough, because the Jordanians will put him on trial using evidence tortured out of other people. So because the Jordanians may use evidence from people it has tortured to try this man for his alleged involvement in terror in Jordan, the Brits have to keep this man in their country.
The Brits are raving angry, but it’s unclear what they can do about this because they are members of the European court and bound by its decisions.
Maybe the famed British SAS can kidnap the man and release him in Brussels and let the Euros take care of him since they don’t want him going back to Jordan.

0230 GMT January 21, 2012

So what do make of George Romney, father of our boy Mitt? We learn when he was head of GM is 1960, he made $200,000 a year, $1.4-million in today’s money. He refused a bonus of $100,000. For our younger readers, a bit of history. General Motors was the largest industrial company in the world. During George Romney’s time, it employed more than 600,000 workers – the population of the US in 1960 was 165-million compared to about 315-million today. The maximum tax rate was 91%. Please repeat that to yourself: ninety.one.percent. A person with taxable income of $400,000 took home $36,000 of that, whereas a person with a taxable income of $200,000 took away $50,000 of that. So did people stop working because in a perverse way the more they made the less they got to keep? Were jobs not created because the financial rewards were so pathetic? Well, oddly enough, 1960 was about the peak of America’s economic golden years.

So was George Romney anti-capitalist? Was he secretly a member of the 99%, a sheep in wolf’s clothing? Did he espouse socialism and income redistribution? Was he anti-American? We don’t know since we never met him, but we doubt he was anything except a true capitalist.

We bring this up because there are a powerful lot of very confused Americans out there, who think any restraint in enriching themselves is anti-capitalist. A perfect exponent of this school of belief is George’s son Mitt, who can brush off $375,000 in speaking fees in the same tone as you and I might when we find loose change recovered from the sofa, and who thinks his multi-million dollar annual income is justified because he “takes risks” and he “creates value”. His father, on the other hand, actually produced goods and actually provided decent jobs to a whacking great number of people.

Editor needs to be clear, here because he tends to speak in short-hand and readers often misunderstand his position. He is not saying “Mitt is a bad man,” or “Mitt is not a Christian”, or “Don’t vote for Mitt”, or “vote for Obama”. Nor is he saying the top tax rate on the 1% should be 91%. He is simply saying that capitalism does not equal greed, and nor does greed make you a capitalist. Greed makes you simply a fat pig, and you know what we do fat pigs in America. We eat them and go “yummy”.

Reader Tacman’s musing on US carriers and the current Iran situation

The letters to us are very compressed because Tacman and Editor are going over familiar ground, to them, anyway. Nonetheless, its not difficult to figure out what Tacman is saying, and its instructive. The exchange starts with reader Chris Raggio forwarding a picture of the attack carriers Lincoln and Stennis together, and asking Tacman if this signifies the possibility of action against Iran. Below is Tacman’s 2-part reply, the second building on the first.

Part I

It comes to mind that the USN releases info rather up to date concerning events, unlike the UK which releases it long after it means anything, BUT, I also remember a friend (former navy surface warfare officer) laughing at any USN article, saying that a measure of BS and mis-timing is mixed in.This pic is of Lincoln and Stennis (blew it up to read the deck numbers), but neither appears to actually be in the Arabian sea ...based on the deck loadout of aircraft ...neither are conducting active air ops, but they're set up to immediately launch air intercept, AWAC and rescue recovery. So, they're in a safe, but otherwise alert location ...West Indian Ocean is my guess, because both were listed as 5th fleet then 7th fleet at the same time. (Tacman refers to a picture released by the US Navy showing the two carriers in question together; we will not speculate on the US Navy’s purposes.

Where they are right now is anyone’s guess. Stennis is due back in the US in Feb/March and Lincoln is covering for Washington opposite NK and china, both being a bit rowdy right now. Technically 2-3 carriers aren't needed to conduct offensive ops vs. Iran. We have several large AF bases in the area that can launch any moment with no warning ...and bunker buster bombs are primarily AF weapons, not Navy ...which leaves the carrier the diminished task of Hormuz security ops, not nuke strike ops. And honestly, if we were planning a strike, no responsible admiral would have their carrier in the Persian Gulf anyway.

Part II

I agree, this did feel different, and still smells a bit too. When 3-CVN get within a couple days travel from each other then i get nervous. Oh, BTW, in last email I meant E. Indian Sea, my bad. Reading more stuff, Lincoln and Stennis passing each other in Arabian Sea. Stennis transiting to 7th. The border between 5th and 7th gets blurry sometimes, maybe they moved it to the tip of India instead of the W. side of Sumatra?

I calculate all three are right now within 3-days of each other, still a nervous position. The photo of the Lincoln / Stennis may be dated wrong. It happens a lot, and I use photo dating only to nail down where someone was within 2-3 days, helpful for getting a general grip on locations, bad for exact estimates.

Thinking.... things are good to go for a strike. It's difficult to read if/when because of all the media clutter and mixed messages. Getting a current load out on AF resources in the area is nigh impossible, but don't doubt the B2's are on standby in Missouri. Technically carriers can strike from 1-2 days travel, outside the theater, because of refueling and cruise missiles ...so until a CVN is spotted a week out from theater, stay nervous ...until, say, the Stennis pops up at Singapore, Hong Kong or Australia. They still have 2-months to go, and usually they spend the last transiting home, so they still have a month of tom-foolery to get into.

BTW, I heard scuttle-butt that the French CVN is heading out for the Indian Ocean in the spring, to arrive in concert with the HMS Daring. Trouble?

Editor’s professional opinion

We’re saying “professional opinion” because this is what we’d say if we were getting paid for our analysis

Neither the United States nor Israel will at this time make a strike against Iran. But if Iran should make a mistake due to the enormous amount of economic, diplomatic, and military pressure that is being imposed on it, neither US or Israel will hesitate to attack. Is Us working to provoke a rash Iranian action, justifying retaliation. Yes and no, Yes in that some people are definitely hoping for a reaction. No because others really do believe – wrongly in our opinion – that Iran can be brought to the negotiating table. This is an example of people with diverse final objectives agreeing on a strategy that serves their different purposes.

For this analysis, which needs no more than the 110 words used, you are paying nothing because you put up with the Editor’s daily whining and moaning. But as we speak, services who do this for a living are charging from hundreds of dollars to tens of thousands of dollars to their clients while saying precisely nothing in a thousand to ten thousand words.

0230 GMT January 20, 2012

Folks, just to warn you: college is starting next week and your faithful editor will not have as much time to update till semester end last week of April. (yes, yes, we can hear some of our readers saying “that is supposed to be bad news?”)

There’s hope, people: we aren’t the only duds around The Germans have figured out that solar power is not an economical proposition for the. Reason? The sun doesn’t shine a whole lot in Germany, and particularly not in the winter. (Er, this is news?). This has become an issue because Germany heavily subsidizes solar energy, taxing everyone something like 3.5-cents a kilowatt hour to subsidize solar.

Just to remind ourselves? Why exactly are the Germans doing this? Well, being a conscientious lot the Germans want to reduce global warming, and they want to do away with the N-power plants. There may be a point to reducing global warming, but getting rid of N-power, which is the safest – and cleanest – of all base-load power, is strictly an emotion-driven exercise.

Be that as it may, the Germans have started to run out of money, so many people are installing solar, not that anyone is getting much use from the solar given the above-mentioned climate conditions. You get a 20-year subsidy in Germany for installing solar. So this money issue is forcing them to reconsider the deal. And Der Spiegel tells us that the cost of eliminating a ton of carbon is 5-euros if you insulate your attic, 20-euros if you use natural gas instead of coal, and 500-euro if you use solar. And as for doing away with N-power, all the solar installed in Germany – and it’s a lot – equates to two N-power plants. http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,809439,00.html

Oh the irony of it all To make up their electricity deficit, the Germans have been importing N-generated power from France and the Czech Republic, and from a back-up oil-fired plant in Austria. Doubtless the Germans see the irony of this oil: they don’t want N-power, but its okay to buy N-power from other countries; they want to go green, so let the Austrian burn oil so that Germany can keep the lights on. In this American and German greens are BFFs, because rather than buy from Canada that is produced, transported, and refined in accordance with strict regulations, it’s better to buy oil from dictators in Venezuela and the Mid East, and let the Africans mess up their ecologies to send us oil – if we don’t see the pollution, it doesn’t exist. Just by the way, we’re told that in Nigeria’s oil producing Delta region its possible to set streams on fire because the environment is so heavily polluted. Did we hear the greens screaming to shut down oil imports from Nigeria? Editor didn’t, but then he’s quite deaf, maybe our readers heard them. Lets not talk about the corruption and the way ordinary people are shafted in Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Angola, Chad, Gabon (not as bad as the rest), and Cameroon.

Meanwhile 9/11 hijackers came from Saudi so we bombed and invaded Afghanistan. Makes perfect sense, people, if you admit we are now all part of Moron Nation. And we’re working with Saudi Arabia to bring democracy to Syria. Right after the Saudis helped our allies the Bahrainis squash their citizens’ demand for fair representation. BTW, have you ever heard of doctors being arrested and jailed, and likely to get substantial prison terms, for providing medical aid to demonstrators beaten and shot by the authorities? Aren’t doctors under one of the most scared oaths of all humankind, to help those who need help regardless of their political beliefs? Not, apparently, in Bahrain, that great ally of ours. These are some of the examples we had in mind when yesterday we said that America’s demand for imported oil has created a perverted diplomacy and defense policy. But we digress. Back to the Germans.

So the Germans have already paid out $135-billion in solar energy subsidies. A bit of comparison here. Germany’s GDP is about a fifth of ours. So its like us paying $700-billion in subsidies.

Mea culpa and all that Editor has always been impressed by Germany’s solar push. It has 20-gigawatts worth of solar installed, comparing it to America we’d have to install a tenth of our total generating capacity in solar. But what Editor didn’t know, as he doesn’t follow non-oil economics/politics, is that typically the actual efficiency of that 20-Gigawatts is two gigawatts, and you get the power when the sun feels like it, not when you need it.

Please to understand we are not bashing solar US situation is quite different from Germany’s, because we have large parts of the country where you get probably more sunshine than anyone wants. (How can you have too much sunshine? When the temps climb in to the 80s, 90s, 100s, and 110s). But what astonishes us is that the Germans did not figure out their Sorry We Have No Sunshine Today state of affairs before they spent all that money. It’s still not too late: North Africa is a hop, skip, and jump away, and you can’t get more sunshiny than North Africa. The US and Russia run transmission cables thousands of kilometers, it’s not rocket science to get the power to Germany.

A bit of history regarding German weather Readers who are real old timers (like in their sixties and seventies) will remember the heck of a time the Luftwaffe had with its F-104s, losing about a third of their total purchase to accidents in the 1960s and 1970s. This was after losing a third of their F-84s, the first combat aircraft inducted into the new Luftwaffe. There were three reasons for that. First, the Starfighter was designed as an air superiority fighter, like the MiG-21, not as a fighter-bomber which is the way the German used it. Yes, the G model was developed as a fighter-bomber, but it was a more “we have this plane what do we do with it because the USAF doesn’t want it” kind of thing”. The Germans, like everyone except the US, used a low-level attack doctrine. Combine the weather and the aircraft being used for something it was not optimized, and you had a lot of crashes. Second, the Germans lost an entire generation of fighter pilots between 1945 and 1956, before they got to fly again. And the men who were part of the new Luftwaffe were used to the casual way you operate in war – or used to, anyway. To understand how the Germans flew – Ole, Red Baron! – read this http://yarchive.net/mil/german_f104_losses.html But last, something not widely known. The Germans kept their F-104s in the open, exposed to the weather. A big no-no for something as sophisticated and its own way delicate like the F-104.

0230 GMT January 19, 2012

Fitch saying Greece will default doesn’t mean anything Fitch is not saying that the Greek bail-out will fail. It well could, but that is a separate issue. Fitch’s point is that a write-down of Greek debt, which is in the works, is in itself a default. And Fitch is correct. You cannot pay back 35 cents on the dollar – which is the latest figure – and then pretend it’s a debt restructure. It’s a restructure AFTER default, and just the negotiations to give investors less than they are owed means a default is in the works.
Fitch’s point is not an academic one In case of default, those who insured Greek debt have to pay up. The insurers are the ones who are dancing around claiming this is not a default. We’re not international financial lawyers, so we can’t say how that will work out in court, where one supposes the argument will be headed. The law is not about common sense; nonetheless, common sense says Greece is about to default.
Iceland proves default is not the end of the world In 2007, Iceland defaulted on its debts and let its big banks fail. Inflation went to 18%, the krona fell by 50%, the national debt went from something like 40% of GDP (this figure needs to be checked) to 120% because the Icelanders insisted on maintaining their safety net, GDP fell by 12%, unemployment jumped, etc etc etc.
Fast forward to 2011. Iceland bonds are oversubscribed, debt has fallen to 80% of GDP, exports are booming, and employment is recovering http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/iceland-the-broken-economy-that-got-out-of-jail-2349905.html
It’s still not the days of wine and roses because Iceland’s mortgages are variable with inflation and a lot of people have lost on their houses. But the article we’re quoting notes that Ireland assumed full responsibility for all debts, its debt went from 25% of GDP to 100%, and aside from the economy being shot to heck, Ireland has to pay a premium to insure its debt. By the way, in Ireland declaring bankruptcy does not absolve you of your mortgage. You’ve lost your house, too bad, you still owe the money to the bank. Tough people, the Irish. And also by the way, you may be surprised that the Irish are not doing any whining and moaning like us Americans. The Irish say they lived beyond their means, they now have to pay the price, and that’s all there is to it. You have to admire them and you have to admit that Americans, who used to be considered THE tough ones, are now as bad as any socialist Euro when it comes to feeling entitled and to blaming someone else for their problems. We’re not talking about just the economic crisis here.
Where in the Capitalist Bible does it say a lender has to be indemnified from risk? We’ve often attacked the US for claiming it is a capitalist country when actually it is not. In capitalism, a lender is supposed to assess his risk in lending money to me, charge a rate of interest accordingly, and he is entitled to secure his loan the best way he can.
But if I can’t, he has to accept the loss. His money is not sacred above all things. He cannot, in capitalism, go to the government for help, and then have the government reach into the pockets of all folks without their consent to make the lender whole. This is crony capitalism because the government uses public money to help its cronies get richer and richer, while the rest of us futz along like we’re still earning in 1970.
Keystone XL Pipeline The opponents of the pipeline are endangering the national security of the US, and to us that is not acceptable. That the greens have good intentions is no excuse. Aside from the road to The Very Hot Place being paved with good intentions, by Editor’s definition when you put your pet agenda ahead of the nation’s agenda on a critical national security issue, you are NOT excused because you have good intentions.
Two points. The first is an observation made by the Canadian Prime Minister. He said it is not Canada’s intention to become a national park for the United States.
The second point is that the US is dependent on imported oil. To obtain that oil, and protect the oil lanes, we have a completely perverted and dysfunctional foreign and defense policy which among other things costs us huge amounts of money and ultimately weakens our national security.
This is not a criticism of the greens alone, because it has become a national trait: Americans simply push their own agendas without doing an overall cost-benefit analysis. It doesn’t matter what you decide about Keystone XL, there will be winners and losers. The question is not which side musters more political shouting power, but what is the net benefit to the country. Yes, there are potential environmental negatives to the pipeline. And yes, in peacetime the oil will flow to American refineries, from which some may be exported and some may be used in the US. But in case of emergency that oil is all available to the US, which gives us the freedom to refuse to deal with unpleasant regimes and saves us money because we have less need to protect the sea lanes. To the greens that is worth nothing at all. All that matters to them is their agenda, regardless of what the ultimate cost to the country – their country – may be.

0230 GMT January 18, 2012

Pakistan Editor has been feeling guilty that he is not making more of an effort to explain what is happening in Pakistan. As Editor has confessed before, he finds the internal politics of any country to be extremely snooze-making. This includes the politics of his adopted country; and as for the politics of his home country, Editor finds the politics of Pitcairn Island more fascinating. Pitcairn, which is famous for having been settled by the mutineers of HMS Bounty, has a population of 50. So as long as you keep in mind what the Editor is saying is from the media – and the Pakistan media, like the Indian, is at the best of times about as cogent as Tarzan’s ape discussing black hole theory – Editor is prepared to summarize the situation.

A four-way struggle for power is underway in Pakistan, between the civilian government, the Supreme Court, and the army. The Supreme Court wants to know why the civilian Prime Minister had not initiated corruption enquires against the President, from the days he was only husband to Mrs. Benazir Bhutto and of steller stature when it came to taking bribes. (In America we have legalized contributions of unlimited amount to our politicians, and we call them “campaign contributions” and not bribes, but people, let’s face facts, we are just as corrupt as any government in the world. Of course, America’s saving grace is that the ordinary citizen never has to pay a bribe to get his work done, the corruption is at the top levels. Anyway, we digress.)

We aren’t going to go into the details of why the Pakistan Supreme Court, which for decades believing that discretion is the better part of valor, has avoiding antagonizing the government in power, but of a sudden has decided it needs to do its job as the last resort of people seeking justice. Suffice it to say, the Supreme Court is perfectly within its power to insist that corruption inquiries against the President be initiated, and within its power to threaten the PM for contempt for having failed to heed its orders. The PM has not open inquires because first, he is in power thanks to the Prez, and in the sub-continent, once you start taking people down for corruption, it ends only when every single politician is in jail, and that’s not particularly helpful either.

Meanwhile, as is known, the PM and the Prez appealed to the US to squash the Army. Why are the PM and Prez is conflict with the Army? Well, in Pakistan it always ends up that way because the Army is the real power. It is willing to permit a civilian façade as long as the civilians behave themselves. But here’s the problem: the PM, for whatever reason, is sick and tired of kissing Army boots. He feels he was elected by the people, he should be responsible to the people, and the Army should stay in the barracks and play golf. This is all fine in theory, but this puts one in mind of Stalin’s aphorism about how many divisions does the Pope have.

Now, these days even in Pakistan you cannot repress the people forever. But the government of President Zardari and PM Gilani is wildly unpopular because it’s both corrupt AND ineffective. One or the other is acceptable, but not both. So that’s how you get the fourth party to the power struggle, the opposition politicians who want fresh election, because they feel its their turn to loot the country.

Okay. So the Army is madder than heck that the PM has these weird ideas that he’s in charge, and it is determined to see the Prez and PM bite the dust for daring to go to the US and seeking America’s help in overthrowing the Army Chief, and by extension, the generals. The generals are a lot more sophisticated than the military dictators of yore – Musharraf, Zia, Yahya, and Ayub. They know times have changed. They will do a coup if they must, but they prefer to get their way by remaining behind the scenes, though honestly in Pakistan the remaining behind the scenes is not even a fig leaf. So the Army has argued – behind the scenes – to the Supreme Court that (a) the Prez and PM are guilty of treason for asking the US to step in; and (b) what is the supreme Court going to do about being disrespected by the PM, who is not moving to obey the court on the corruption inquiries.

The PM is appealing to the politicians: we all hang together or hang separately. Brave man, he is actually standing up to the Army though the consequences can be most severe. The Pakistan Army has a habit of overthrowing sassy Prime Ministers. In one case, Prime Minister ZA Bhutto, father of the murdered Benazir Bhutto, the Army executed the PM after a mock trial, a move that still reverberates unpleasantly in India and in Pakistan, where executing your Prime Minister is definitely not considered proper. Interestingly, Mr. Bhutto got into an identical tussle with his Army Chief, Zia-ul-Haq, over who was the ruler of Pakistan. Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif got into a tussle with General Musharraf, and we know who lost there. But Mushy Bhai, as he is known in India, is not a vindictive sort. He’s a live-and-let live, so Nawaz did not get his neck stretched.

Well, the Pakistani politicians are divided. One lot says we have to stick together, it’s now or never. The other lot says any ally is handy if it helps us to come to power, and if we have to sup with the Army with a short spoon, so be it. The Army is hoping the Supreme Court impeaches the PM, which removes him from the stage. Our information is that some of the army generals are so angry they will gladly see the PM hang, but all of them understand this cannot be part of the agenda at this time. They understand an impeached PM loses his power, and spends the next 10 years of his life in fighting the charges. The ISI, which maintains its own counsel, needs to say nothing. If the PM gets too out of hand, if he is not removed by the Supreme Court, well, another suicide bombing like the one that killed Mrs. Bhutto when she looked set to become PM is easily arranged. You don’t cross the Army, but the people you definitely don’t want putting you on their “Do Not Invite To Tea” list is the ISI. This is a very tough bunch of cookies. They’ve been killing people since Afghanistan I, when they did it with the full blessing of Washington, and after thirty years they have acquired, shall we say, a certain expertise.

So how this all comes out, we can’t say. But if we were bookies, we would not be putting our money on the Prez and PM. The Army/ISI will not compromise after the formers attempts to get the US to remove the Army/ISI Chiefs, and they cannot compromise, because as happened with General Zia and PM Bhutto, it’s a zero sum game. If the PM wins – very unlikely – the army’s power could well be broken for good.

In conclusion, we might note what happened to Mrs. Bhutto. The US wanted a democratic face on the Pakistan Government post 2001. The army was playing its usual double game – and as an Indian Editor has no hesitation in saying the Pakistan Army has done very, very well at this game, taking the US for whatever it could and conceding very little in return – so the US wanted a pliable government. Also, it was hugely embarrassing to be dealing with a bunch of Army dictators: the 2000s were not the 1960s or even the 1980s. Mrs. Bhutto was, to westerners, an attractive personality and she had her constituency in London and in Washington. So she was anointed Washington’s Viceroy to Pakistan. (In this Feminist correct age we don’t use “Vicerine”, who generally has been the wife of the Viceroy.) That was bad enough as far as the Army/ISI was concerned, but this amazingly naïve woman made it much, much worse when she began openly talking about the need for civilian control and how the army needed sorting out, all before she even landed back in Pakistan from which she had been informally exiled by Musharraf. Well, the Army wasted no time in getting rid of her. The current President acutely realizes his vulnerability. If it’s a question of his life, he’s willing to quit in return for immunity. Which the Army is not willing to give.

The Prime Minister now – Editor at least doesn’t know what’s gotten into the man. He is aware he could be murdered ir sent to jail for many years. But so far he’s not backing down. You don’t know whether to admire the man for his courage or condemn him for his foolishness.

In the late 1980s, Editor got into a tussle with his government. He was accused of treason, ironically by the very same bunch of people who were lining up to sell themselves to the United States, something to which Editor was taking objection. Well, Editor has never had a martyr complex or a false sense of his own importance. When the heat in the kitchen got too intense, Editor quietly packed his backpack, told everyone he was going to visit his family in the ‘States, and never went back. It’s up to the Pakistan PM to decide if his stand is of any importance to Pakistan’s future. For himself, Editor knows had he stayed and fought it out, India would not have noticed or cared any more than a buffalo notices or cares about a fly. Given the choice between sleeping in a jail cell for 14 years and sleeping in his bed with his four pillows and his teddy bears, well, it wasn’t really a choice. The politicians, generals, bureaucrats are still 100% sell-outs when it comes to India’s national security, wimps and traitors not so much by commission as by omission. But the country has done just fine without the Editor.

0230 GMT January 17, 2012

Insurgents attack Fallujah and are beaten back. This follows several attacks against Shias, including pilgrims. We’d like to ask the insurgents something. Sunnis constitute 20% of Iraq. What precisely is it Sunnis gain by attacking Shias, who are not just 60% of the population, but control the instruments of power? The point of an insurgency is to get something that you cannot get by other means. What is it the outcome the Sunni insurgents are hoping for? Is it their own state? If so, they have only to ask, and the Shias will be very happy to be permanently rid of them. Is it to take power at the center? But how can they? When the three provinces of the Ottoman Empire that make up modern Iraq were in play, the Turk overlords – who were Sunni – saw to it that their co-religionists were in power. When Iraq became independent, the Sunnis still controlled the instruments of power and repressed the Shias. But that is now history, thanks to the US invasion of 2003. There is simply no way in the modern world a minority can gain rule over a majority when the majority has the guns and the money.

The Sunnis might want to consult the Tamil insurgents in Sri Lanka about what happens when the majority decides to get rid of you. For years the Sinhala majority was half-hearted about fighting the Tamils. Then starting around 2008 it all changed. The majority determined they were going to crush the rebellion, and they embarked on a massive military expansion, and ended up killing every single insurgent who did not surrender. Mercifully, in Sri Lanka we did not see the savage attacks by insurgents or the security forces on civilians just trying to go about their business. The Sri Lankans managed to retain enough of a sense of shared identity that there was no ethnic cleansing as took place in Iraq before the US surge.

Do the insurgents not care that they are just providing carte blanche to the Shias who want to eliminate the Sunnis? This is what was happening until the US surge kicked in. The Sunnis staged attack after attack on the Shias, who retaliated; with the result Sunnis got massacred. The US surge stopped the Shia from launching a full-fledged holocaust against the Sunnis. But the US is now gone. So who will protect the Sunnis?

Yes, we understand that the Sunni Arabs are financing the insurgents not least because many Arab countries have substantial Shia populations who seek encouragement from the fall of Iraq to the Shias. But do Iraqi Sunnis not realize they cannot win this game? The Shias are neither peaceful nor merciful. They are preparing to strike back. They WILL kill every Sunni they find if this nonsense does not stop. And this time there’s no US to protect them.

Next time, captain, focus on sailing your ship, will you? The captain says the rocks he hot were uncharted. People say the rocks are well known to scuba divers, and this being the coast of Italy, well-travelled for at least five thousand years if not longer, uncharted rocks are unlikely. There is a theory that the computer system, which is supposed to sound an alarm if the ship deviated from course, went down because of an electrical failure. It will take time to find out. But what is not in doubt is the caprtain deliberately deviated from course. Why?

Till yesterday the story was the captain, who’d been having a bit of a nip every now and then, wanted to say hello to the former captain of the ship, who lives on the island. So he deviated from his route and went too close. This is peculiar enough, but now Italy’s Corriere della Sera has come up with a story that must make it into Ripley’s Believe it or Not if it is true.

In addition to the captain wanting to say hello, the ship’s maître de asked the captain to blow the ship’s whistle for the benefit of the maître de’s 82-year old dad. Maître de also lives on the island To ensure the whistle was heard, cappy decided to go in closer. Maitre de’s sister, who lives on the island said on her Facebook page 30-minutes before the accident that the ship would pass really close to the island.

So, like you, we’re scratching our head, when in the UK Daily Mail we read the retired captain saying he was not on the island and there was no question of anyone wanting to hail him. He has gone to the prosecutor to complain he is being dragged into something with which he has nothing to do. If so, it looks as if the captain deviated as a favor to his maître de, which makes the whole thing even more peculiar.

So now we’re scratching both sides of our head. If we lived on one of the new planets that have been discovered, we could simultaneously scratch both sides of both heads. Can’t be done, you’ll say. How silly. If we lived on one of those planets we’d have four arms, obviously.

0230 GMT January 16, 2012

Flash: Orbat.com has discovered that Mr. Newt Gingrich is a British Monarchist! As evidence, we present you the single fact that he speaks English. English, as we all know, is the language of England. And England is the country we revolted against a few years ago. What does this suggest? Yes, that Newt is an agent of Her Majesty Elizabeth II. Good Queen Liz, you may recall, belongs to the House of Windsor. What you may not recall, the House of Windsor is actually a euphemism for the House of Hanover. During World War I, when the Brits and the Germans were having it out, the royal family thought it politically expedient to play down their German roots and take a name that is as English as spanking. (Goodness! Can’t believe we said that! And this a family blog too!) Orbat.com does not need to point out that it was King George III of Hanover who America rebelled against. And he spoke English as his first language! What further proof do we need The Newt’s perfidy, this serpent America nurtured at its bosom (or should that be bosoms? Editor can never get this right). What is worse, The Newt apparently did his doctoral thesis on “Belgian Education Policy in the Congo 1945-1960.” In Belgium they…they…they…sorry, having a hard time getting this out…they speak French and they eat cheese. L'horreur! L'horreur!” (Thank you, Google Translate). And France, as we all know, is the home of the Marquis de Sade, and we all known (or should have known) about him and spanking! It follows without any doubt that if Newt becomes US Prez, we will see the restoration of the British monarchy – after all, technically we are still in rebellion – and the installation of Newt as George VII, we will be forced to speak French and eat cheese. As for the spanking – please people, why this sudden prurience on the part of our readers? Don’t we have enough serious things to discuss?

The US Enrichment Corporation: This is what passes for politics in America Washington Post in its Business section January 15, 2012 has a story about the US Enrichment Corporation. Once upon a time the US government used to do uranium enrichment. Then the business got privatized. Enter USEC, which thanks to technology which is now obsolete has lost 95% of its market value in the last five years. In a capitalist country, the merciful thing would be to shoot USEC and be done with it.

But America is not a capitalist country, despite what the establishment propaganda would have you believe. It is a crony capitalist state, where the capitalists team up with the government (which they own) to enrich themselves by tilting the playing field for their benefit. So what does a company that has failed economically in America do? Two words “Government Bailout!” Otherwise known as “Feed the poor starving hog at the public trough.” USEC wants a $2-billion loan guarantee to modernize, and the technology it wants to use is experimental.

So the GOP is fighting this proposal tooth and nail…oh, wait, that’s happening in an alternate universe. In our universe, the GOP wants the loan guaranteed. President Obama, burned over Solyndra, is hesitant, not least because his advisers tell him the project is problematic. The entire Ohio congressional delegation is pushing for the guarantee. Knowing nil about US domestic politics, we looked up Wikipedia. Ohio has one Democratic senator and one Republican. Of its 18 House seats, 14 are held by the GOP. We learn John “TearMaster” Boehner, the leader of the House, is from Ohio. The GOP is not bothered that it daily slams Mr. Obama on Solyndra and other such projects, it believes USEC is worth of a government bailout.

Editor needs to be clear on one point He is not defending Democrats, President Obama, or Solyndra. He doesn’t know anything about Solyndra, except that it’s a Bush Junior project which President Obama took over and for which he thus become responsible. Editor is simply saying that this is the state of American politics: 100% hypocrisy, 0% integrity, and let America take the hindmost.

The only way things are going to change is if the American people revolt. Which is as likely as Editor getting a Saturday date. Instead of wasting energy on American politics, Editor is thinking maybe this is a good time to learn to crochet. Crocheting at least is a useful activity. American politics? Not so much.

0230 GMT January 15, 2012

So here it is Saturday again, and your Editor is spending the evening as he does every evening, at his computer, today slowly going blind trying to proof Complete World Armies 2012. Adobe Acrobat, which at times functions like Adobe Dingbat, is famous for displaying your converted document exactly as it is. That is the point, of course. So Editor’s Acrobat X has decided to show dashed underlines as if they are in bold. Acrobat has apparently taken what the Americans euphemistically call an “Executive Decision” that the Editor needs bolded dashed underlines, which makes the heads treated thus stand out more than the headings with double- and single-underlining. Which is precisely NOT the point of underlining, a 3^rd level underline should look like 3^rd level, not 1^st level. But the Dingbat apparently doesn’t agree.

So there they go again US is offering DPRK food aid if the latter will rein in its N-program. For the last 15-years at least, if no longer, US has been “negotiating” with DPRK, giving them this, that, and the other, and DPRK has never once kept its end of the bargain. But that doesn’t stop the US from trying again. Part of the reason for just going on and on repeating failed tactics may be that Americans, as a nation and a race, are severely ADD. It just may be that every three years you have a new set of national security policy makers who know zip-a-loo about the past, and come up with this really great idea: “Let’s negotiate with DPRK”. But where is the stick part of the carrot-and-stick? Why should DPRK keep its word when it knows nothing will happen, and the US will come around soon enough begging to negotiate, and begging to get kicked in its Big Fat Butt.

And there they go again, again As it always does, when its cornered, Teheran offers to negotiate. The Iran case is a bit different from the DPRK in that the US greatly wants to whack Iran and US offers to negotiate” are simply an attempt to give the wavering members of the anti-Iran coalition another chance to see that negotiations won’t work. Interestingly, this time the west has not immediately said: “Stop! They’re offering to negotiate and we must give them a chance”. But there is a theory that the west will delay its oil embargo in return for “real” concessions from Iran. Big mistake. Iran domestically cannot afford to make ANY concession on its N-program. Its leaders are not suicidal: they know if they continue they MAY get whacked by the US, but if they give up the N-program they WILL get whacked by their own people. There is no incentive anyone can offer Iran that tops the incentive of having a couple of N-warheads, allowing Iran to continue behaving badly without fear of retaliation.

India freezes Cold Start India is not just the land of a million mutinies, as the Trinidad writer of Indian origin VS Naipul once put it, it is also the land of a million wimps. Ever since India enunciated its Cold Start doctrine, which requires a zero-warning warning attack to punish Pakistan in the event the latter does something egregious like attack Kargil (1999), or India’s parliament (2001), or Bombay (2008), Pakistan has been having conniptions because for the very first time in its independent history, India has openly enunciated an offensive doctrine. So now India has said: “There’s no such thing as Cold Start”. Some will argue that India’s preparations for Cold Start nonetheless continue. Well, don’t hold your breath. Aside from that, Cold Start has a coercive element intended to deter Pakistan from more adventures. While India may still be fitfully going on building its capability, by throwing away the coercive part of the doctrine, India has given Pakistan a free past to attack again and again, as it wishes, and as it has done since the 1980s. Why has India thrown away its coercive diplomacy for zero in return? Well, you see, that’s what we Indians do. When faced with an enemy, we shoot ourselves. That way we spare the enemy from the fear of getting hurt. We are just so unique, polite, and considerate. The US Marine’s unofficial motto – one of them anyway – is “No better friend, no worse enemy.” In India we have inverted that to say “ no worse friend, no better enemy.”

Now, Editor has been a critic of the Cold Start doctrine for two reasons. One, you cannot launch a zero warning attack. There is no such thing. Two, the Indian problem has not been it takes longer than Pakistan to mobilize, thus signaling to Pakistan an attack is coming and allowing Pakistan to do a counter-build up. The problem is that Indian politicians – and most of its military leaders – have less spine than Frieda the Boneless Cat. They get their pink panties into serious twists everytime it becomes necessary to actually react to a Pakistani provocation. Indian leaders use the mobilization issue as an excuse not to go to war: “Oh, you see, they’re already anticipating an attack so we won’t catch them by surprise and we won’t get anywhere.” But, children, strategic surprise is not a precondition for victory. When you have an army twice as large as the other person’s, a GDP seven times as large, and a population five times as large, and you’re still not willing to fight, then we’re very sorry, but your color is yellow.

Tellingly, the ONE time India was willing to go on the offensive it won the first victory against a Muslim army in 800 years. That was in 1971. Interestingly, the Indian leader at the time was a woman.

A curmudgeonly observation on the US marathon Olympic trials So today Editor is sounding much like Robert Stevenson prototype steam engine might have sounded as he battles with the Nordic cross-trainer in the gym. He looks up at the TV to take his mind off the intense physical pain he is experiencing. Why the Editor is doing the Nordic cross-trainer and suffering instead of doing a couple of hundred thousand pounds of leg presses without breaking a sweat is a long story which Editor will tell one day. Readers can take just so many sad stories concerning the Editor at one go: he does not want readers to break down in tears and ruin THEIR date on Saturday night.

So, as Editor was saying, he looks up at the TV and says to himself: “Excuse me, Victoria’s Secret has dressed the women contestants for this year’s marathon trials?” Because it seemed to Editor that the women were running in track shoes, bras, and panties. Now, Editor’s eyesight is none too good at the best of times. When he is dripping sweat and can’t open his eyes properly, he is prepared to admit he may not be seeing things right. So he looked again. Yup. Track shoes, bras, and panties.

Okay, so we know Editor is older than the Cambrian Explosion but he’s not dead yet, and sure, from a guy’s point of view (and from the viewpoint of gals of a certain persuasion), one can appreciate very trim and seriously under clad women athletes effortlessly running five-and-a-half-minute miles one after another as if there’s no tomorrow. Particularly as most of the ladies were ultra-cute as well.

But what has this got to their sports prowess? Have we as a society become so sick in the head that we cannot watch a women’s sporting event unless the contestants are running around nearly naked? Now look, people, if Editor looked as cute as those ladies and had their figures he too would be tempted to run around half-naked. Anything to get ahead, right? But what was going on was wrong on two levels. First, we’re talking sports, we’re not talking movies or models. Second, don’t the young ladies have SOME responsibility for not giving in to the demands of advertisers or whoever to present themselves as sexual objects? The parents of these young women need some very serious spankings from Great Grand Pa, fathers and mothers both, for their parenting failures. You cannot have women on the one hand complaining men sexualize them and on the other they are sexualizing themselves.

0230 GMT January 14, 2012

Good economic news for a change Remember we’ve been saying that with US wages falling soon manufacturing jobs have to return to the US? Well apparently that’s happening. This recovery – if you can call a geriatric geezer 99 years old and just released from the ICU trying to run after a 24-year old hottie “recovering” – is being led not by construction, a traditional harbinger of recovery, but by manufacturing. We’d noted that with rising China wages – minimum wage for the Delta is now $3000/year, given greater US productivity per worker and the hassles of dealing with a country far away, it’s actually economically worthwhile to produce your widgets in Mississippi.

Today we learned something new Though US and China each have about 10% of the world’s manufacturing, the US produces its 10% with a tenth of the workers that China uses. That means the US worker is not just more productive, she is way and away more productive. Theoretically, you should be able to take a product made in the Pearl River Delta in China and produce it in the US while paying your workers $30,000. That’s not great wages, but it sure beats zero dollars a year.

Now, of course the Pearl River is the highest wage area, and the legal minimum wage doesn’t tell us about how many hours that China worker has to work. So yes, its still not efficient to make paper flowers and cheap toys in the US. But it’s a start.

None of which answers the question: if “overpaid” American workers are the problem, how come Japan and Germany, with higher wage structures than the US, are export powerhouses to China? It seems to us its not the much-maligned American worker that is the problem. It’s the people who run American companies.

By the way, can the Occupy lot stop already with beating up capitalism? There is nothing wrong with capitalism. It’s the Anglo-American variety that’s the problem, because it puts the shareholders first, last, and only. Other forms of capitalism – the European and the Japanese put workers at or near the top. The Euros and Japanese realize the strength of a company lies in its workers. So they do their best to retain them, and do not treat them like expendable parts

Of Piddlers and Pentagon Poodlers So some US Marines urinated on the corpses of Taliban insurgents they had killed. Between our readers and the wall, we think this goes into the Bad Taste Division. Boys Behaving Badly. Worth about a rocket from the CO for acting juvenile, and close the book.

But not according to the Pentagon Poodlers, including the Secretary of Defense, who contrary to what someone who does not know him may think from his performance in this case, is actually an intelligent person. You might think this is Abu Gharib all over again the way the Pentagon is reacting. The reasoning is that “we need to get out in front of this before the world jumps all over us.”

There is a rule of parenting. When your kids act like juveniles, you do not discipline them by getting down in the dirt with them and being even more juvenile. The Pentagon Poodlers have apparently not heard of this rule. Doubtless someone in the US media would have brought the incident to the attention of the Pentagon. At which point, a low-level spokesperson should have said” Thanks, and we’ll look into it.” A month later the press would have brought it up again. “Thanks, and the unit CO verbally reprimanded the men concerned. Case closed.”

What is hilarious about this is the Political Correctness. It’s okay to kill the insurgents, which if you are concerned with PC, is pretty darn non-PC. But after having killed them, we cannot do the victory dance, because that’s not PC.

What’s even more hilarious is the Taliban saying this was inhuman. Beheading civilians, stoning women to death, half-killing people by whipping them because the length of their beard is not regulation, blowing up marketplaces worth of children, women, old men is, of course, completely human.

Even more hilarious is that standing joke of a person, Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan, our so-called ally. We’re not going waste our time mocking him, because with the US talking to the Taliban about a “peace settlement” his days are numbered. We’re wondering: did he take US citizenship while in the US? If he had a Green Card, that’s invalid now. Green Card rules say not just you must maintain your residence in the US, that’s where you must substantially live and work. It hardly matters. The US will get its poodle out of Kabul when the Taliban arrived to take over. But you know, even the US’s capacity to be abused by this man is not infinite. If he doesn’t learn to shut up, US might just decide to leave him behind.

From Dan Falk: More on the A-Bombs and Japan A follow up on the story behind the use of A-Bombs on Japan to end the war in the Pacific. The US had broken several of the Japanese codes during the war, one of them was the diplomatic“Purple” code. This might not be of much use in a combat situation but it did provide useful intelligence, like the info coming from the Japanese ambassador in Germany.

Toward the end of the war, when the Home Islands were threatened with invasion, the Japanese Government sent out orders, using this "Broken Code". These orders stated that if the Home Islands were ever invaded, all Allied POWs under Imperial control were to be immediately executed, men, women, and children. At this time, these POWs/hostages numbered somewhere in the 400,000 range.

So, as the US was planning for the invasion of Japan, they knew that 400K allied lives were to be lost even before the battle was joined. When they added in the expected military losses, we can begin to understand why the Allied planners were looking for another way to end the war. The A-Bombs were a readymade solution. In the end, the bombs saved many more lives then they took, both Japanese and Allied.

This small insight comes from thebook Marching Orders by Bruce Lee and several sources.

0230 GMT January 13, 2012

Is it Bye Bye Greece? A reader who doesn’t want his letter published because, he says, you cannot have a rational debate about economics in the America of today, writes in to say, essentially, that Greece has been carrying out the formula for reducing its deficit that Editor has advocated for the US, and the Greek economy is collapsing. GDP has fallen four years in a row already, and in 2012 it is expected to fall by 6.5%. Unemployment is expected climb to 22%, which is about the top for the US during the Depression. By raising taxes and cutting spending Greece is contracting demand, which makes it impossible to meet its deficit targets, which leads the Euros to demand more cuts/taxes, and the economy contracts some more.

“Wringing out the excess from the system, as required by Libertarian economics, is a fine theory,” our letter writer said. “As a practical matter, having 60% of the population suffer while 30% is managing, 9% is doing well, and 1% is doing exceedingly well is a surefire formula for social unrest, which if it spreads will undermine the foundations of American society and we will all lose, rich or poor. The average American is armed and dangerous, and the economists in their ivory tower might do well to think about that. People are not economic units of production, to be used by the financiers when times are good and discarded when times are bad. We do not know what would have happened in America had the New Deal not come about, but we do know what happened in Germany and Italy when libertarian economics was allowed to rule.”

The letter writer agreed with Editor that the US was not Greece. Greece doesn’t produce anything, and for all the beating America has taken at China’s hands, we are still the leading industrial power. Plus we pay our taxes, more or less, unless you happen to be GE or Apple and their friends, and have clever lawyers to help you keep your money safely offshore. And our economic statistics are reasonably transparent. But, asked Editor, will the letter writer not agree that America is going the Greek way with regard to the national debt? Yes, said the letter writer. And the reason we are at 100% and shooting past like the proverbial bat out of heck is because politicians without moral principle (a) put us into two wars financed by debt; and (b) keep giving ever larger entitlements not paid for to the public to win votes. The solution is when the economy improves to eliminate tax breaks and to slow the growth of entitlement funding. But to do it now, when the economy is wobbling, is to risk another recession – particularly when Europe is heading for a recession, and India and China are slowing.

At which point letter writer and Editor parted friends, because we agreed the chances for tax reform and reduced growth in entitlements is about zero. Vested interests will buy off Congress and make tax reform impossible; and we lack leaders actual and potential who have either the courage or the moral authority to tell the American people that the time for sacrifice has arrived. So basically there is no hope. The economy will start growing again, till it isn’t, but it’s unrealistic to believe it will grow fast enough that the deficits can be meaningfully reduced.

At which point Editor took out his fiddle, climbed to the top of the roof, and began to play. The scantily clad ladies clinging to the Editor and peeling grapes for him were missing. But then as the New Agers say: “Visualize!” Editor was busy visualizing a $100-billion bank account that he played the fiddle better than Paganini, and that hordes of beautiful women were crying because he had no time for them. Then the mailman arrived and deposited the monthly bill from the mortgage company. That kind of wrecked the visualization.

Pakistan we can’t say anything intelligent about the crisis there because we have no clue to what’s happening. It seems the Prime Minister backtracked because the Army said it had informed the Ministry of Defense and the PM fired the defense secretary for creating “misunderstandings”. The Army Chief is having meetings with his corps commander, who are the modern-day equivalent of the Praetorian Guard’s commanders in modern Pakistan. The Pakistan president has gone for a wedding to Dubai. The army has changed the commander of 111st Infantry Brigade in Rawalpindi, the so-called “coup brigade”. That it has done so at this time likely means something. The press says that the Army Chief is willing to take over but only if the Supreme Court inquiry finds the president guilty of treason for plotting with the Americans to remove the Army Chief and head of the ISI, and removes him from office. So, readers’ guesses as to what’s really going on are as good as the Editor’s.

Average of 1.6 planets per star in the galaxy says the boffins. The estimate is there are about 100-billion stars in our galaxy. If we go by the example of Earth, the odds of any intelligent life out there are non-existent.

0230 GMT January 12, 2012

The US Army’s $17-billion radio fiasco A reader from India sends this URL http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/01/army-perfect-radio/ which tells the story of how the Army wanted a common radio to replace three different kinds, and after spending $17-billion on the project decided it wasn’t going to work. Problem is, according to the article, the laws of physics dictate that you cannot combine all three radios into one. So how did this project get approved?

The point is you can give the military as much money as you want, if it doesn’t spend what it is given efficiently, no amount is ever going to be enough. We were thinking the other day of the Marine Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle, which has been cancelled due to big cost-overruns. In 2007 prices the cost was estimated at $22-million each, making it not unlikely that it would have been $25-million by the time it entered service if not more. The EFV could do everything including sing the national anthem while doing the touchdown dance. Its engine was truly amazing: 2700-horsepower for a 35-ton vehicle. It had three times as much capability of this sort as its predecessor, and five times as much capability of that sort, and so on till the cows come home. If the program had gone through and the Marines had bought their total requirement, it would cost approaching $30-billion. Now they are going to get their existing amphibious assault vehicles, designed in the late 1960s, with a life extension. Quite mindboggling.

Another example: according to http://www.defense-aerospace.com/article-view/release/131154/f_35-unit-cost-nears-$160m-as-lockheed-wins-$4bn-for-lrip-5-lot.html the low-rate production Batch 5 F-35s are going to cost $160-million each. That’s before modifications which will become necessary as the flight tests proceed. People, that’s not life-cycle cost. That’s unit cost. Every time one of these beasties is lost US will have to declare three days of national mourning.

Readers may recall some years ago we commented on the presidential Helicopter program which had to be cancelled. The helicopter’s unit price escalated to $400-million each by 2008. A top-of-the line Boeing 747-8 costs $330-million. And the Presidential Helicopter was simply a variant of a tried and true helicopter that was already flying, the EH-101. Denmark, for example, bought the EH-101 for military use at a unit price of $37-million. The US was prepared to pay 11-times as much money per helicopter to customize it for the Commander-in-Chief’s use. Oh sure, it had an ace communications suite capable of controlling the US strategic deterrent and it was hardened against EMP and it had special anti-terror equipment. But eleven times as much for the equipment alone as the Danes paid for their military versions? Come on.

Pakistan civil-military crisis We have to hand it to the Pakistan Prime Minister. He has attacked the all-powerful Army Chief of Staff and the head of the ISI for providing depositions to the Pakistan Supreme Court without the government’s clearance. He has said the action was illegal. Readers may recall last year the Pakistan ambassador to Washington got into hot water because allegedly he wrote to the head of the US Joint Chiefs on behalf of the Pakistan president, saying that the Pakistan president was prepared to fire the army chief and ISI chief and turn over wanted Taliban to the US provided the US backed the move.

Well, this created an uproar as you may imagine, with the Army accusing the civilians of treason, and an inquiry was ordered, to be held by the Pakistan Supreme Court.

So the inquiry is going on. Now, according to the rule of civilian control of the military, which is nominally the case in Pakistan as the Chief of Army staff prefers to rule without taking over, no military officer can provide testimony in court without the government’s clearance. The civilian Prime Minister is perfectly within his rights to tell the military it cannot go to the court without his permission.

The military has reacted with anger, and reminds the Prime Minister it received a summons from the Supreme Court and had to comply. Well, summons or not, in a civilian controlled system the Army Chief still has to get clearance from his immediate superior, the Defense Minister.

Did the Pakistan Prime Minister shut up when the military attacked him right back? No, sir. He did not. He immediately fired the defense secretary, a retired three-star general put there by the Army with the civilians’ consent to act as a liaison between the two sides. Immediately means within minutes.

So with the civilian PM refusing to back down, the Army has two choices. One, meekly submit. Two, stage a coup. General Kiyani has been against staging a coup because, he has said, he doesn’t want the headaches of running Pakistan and the blame for the inevitably failures. But if he doesn’t stage a coup, the civilians are going to cut him down.
All we can say is the Pakistan PM is being incredibly brave and incredibly foolish. No Army Chief of Staff has been the turn-the-other cheek kind, and General Kiyani is particularly known to be one tough cookie.

What is the US position on an army coup? Depending on whom you talk to in Washington you will get pro forma replies about the need to respect the civilian power and so on. Truthfully, however, Washington could care less one way or the other. It has had it up the wazoo with Pakistan. And as for the US putting pressure on General Kiyani not to stage a coup, the General could care less. He cannot stand the United States and wants America to get out of the region. Even if it costs Pakistan US aid.

0230 GMT January 11, 2012

A Johnny Depp Halloween First Editor needs to note he is not a Halloween fan. He is not a Christian, but his 13 years in Christian schools and 10 working in Christian schools lead him to believe that Halloween is not something Christians should observe. If the little tykes must have their fun and their candy, let’s have a Universal Silliness Day or something. Second Editor needs to note that he doubts there is one human being whose life could withstand the scrutiny being directed at the White House’s Johnny Deep Halloween of 2009. No one can live every minute of their lives with a battery of lawyers to advise them of their every word and step. The White House has said the press reported the party, which was held for White House staff, military personnel, and DC school children. There is no rule that celebrities on work should sign in, that some have doesn’t mean anything. There could be any number of reasons Mr. Burton’s and Mr. Depp’s appearance was not widely announced. That the media chose not to make a big issue of the party does not mean it is biased toward Mr. Obama or that it has fallen down on the job. The media does not report on the President’s bowel movements either, and seeing as bowel movements are indicative of health, we the public certainly have a right to know. That the President does not discuss his bowel movements with the media and that the media makes no effort to find it is not indicative of any conspiracy.

All this caveats made we’d like to know why is it in Bush Junior’s day, there was never the slightest whiff of impropriety regarding the President and First Lady’s ways. And the liberal media hated Mr. Bush so much you can’t say they weren’t looking for an excuse to trash him. The problem here is not President Obama, but the First Lady. That the Prez is a wimp and has no control over the First Lady is no secret; but Editor would like to know which man married to his professional and intellectual equal has any control over his wife. You can’t hold husband-like wimpiness to be a capital crime, otherwise nine-tenths of the world’s husbands would be guilty, and leading the parade would be Editor.

We also appreciate that the First Lady is a fun loving person particularly where kids are concerned. She loves kids, she wants them to have fun, and she’s enough of a kid herself that she wants to be the center of the fun. That’s where the problem starts. You cannot tell the Prez: “Dear, I’m sorry you’re stuck in Washington and can’t make the vacation we’ve planned, so I am off with the girls to Hawaii for our fun.” Prez is stuck in Cesspool town, the missus has to remain back too. The kids have to learn that being who they are, fun does not come first. You want to have a White House Halloween party, that’s fine. But given the times, and given its public money, you have to be low-key and discreet.

The guests would have been just as thrilled and delighted with a modest affair The problem is arising because first and foremost the First Lady wanted to have fun. Mama Robinson needs to sit her little girl down and explain that having fun cannot be the point of being First Lady. Appearances really are not just important, they’re critical.

And by the way what is this cheap thrill Americans get out of playing ghosts and ghouls? Editor has met four ghosts in his lifetime, two by the light of the full moon and two in broad daylight, and it was neither humorous nor interesting. These four are aside from the Victorian lady who used to roam in and out of his little apartment in Simla, India, the capital of the British Raj but whom he never actually saw, only heard and felt, and then Mrs. Rikhye IV’s astral self that periodically creates such an uproar in the house at night it’s tough to sleep even with one’s head under four pillows. Generally she is hammering on the front door or the bedroom window loudly demanding to be let in. Now look, my dear, no one forced you to leave the house. All Editor did was refuse to leave: he wasn’t going to give up his house and his child no matter what. The wards that are set were placed primarily to protect you and the kid, when you lived here, and though the kid comes and lives when he feels like it, and leaves when he feels like it, it’s still his house and the wards are going to stay. Sorry.

Protocol for visiting ghosts Be polite and attentive and above all calm. Suggest a nice cup of tea. At this point most ghosts will say to themselves “What a loser” and leave. If they still don’t leave, talk about Lindsey Lohan or the Kardashian Sisters. Just be alert for the things the ghost will throw at you before they leave in complete disgust.

To our Christian readers Setting wards to protect your house from the malign or the merely curious – ghosts have no sense of boundaries – is not witchcraft. But you knew that already.

Now, is there anything else Editor can pontificate on or advise on that will be of interest to readers?

0230 GMT January 10, 2012

Iran’s new bunker factory so its latest uranium enrichment plant is built deep inside a mountain (or at any rate what passes for a mountain in Iran – in the Himalayas we call mountains like those in Iran “hills”, while giving disdainful sniffs). We’re not so sure that this by itself makes the factory invulnerable to attack. The weak point in such set-ups is the entrance/exit and the air ventilation system. Back in the day you could probably do a reasonable job of camouflaging the ventilation system intakes/exhausts, but even then you couldn’t hide the entrance/exits. These days, with UAV’s able to photograph down to one-centimeter resolution, hiding anything is hard. Attack the entrance/exists and the ventilation system, and the bunker is going to get incapacitated.

A Revolutionary Guard senior commander has again said Iran will block Hormuz if Iran’s oil exports are blocked. We seem to be suffering from translation problems here, and personally Editor would be very careful before reading anything into this statement. If one wants to be legalistic, US is not planning on blocking Iran’s oil exports, or even enforcing an embargo. All US has said is the west will not buy Iranian oil. So what exactly would Iran’s case be in this event? Buy our oil or we close Hormuz? Is this what the Iranians are saying or is a lot of the nuance being lost in translation? If this is what they are saying, it doesn’t make any sense. You don’t go to war because someone won’t buy your products.

Please to note the US/British/Dutch embargo on oil exports to Japan and the US/British embargo on scrap iron sales to Japan fall into a completely different category. This was not a case of “we aren’t selling, you’re free to buy from anyone else” because back in the day there was no one else to buy from. The west controlled the oil trade and most of the world’s oil production, leaving Japan – in theory – to buy from the Soviet Union or Bulgaria or something similar. Unlikely this would have worked because these other countries needed oil for themselves or their local markets. Ditto the scrap iron. Soviet Union didn’t have a ton to spare, aside from which Soviet Union and Japan were not exactly on good terms. Germany had nothing to spare. So this really was a case of economic strangulation. The Iran case is completely different because Iran is still free to sell its oil to the rest of the world, and it will.

Ancient history and all that but it’s worth noting that Stalin was forced to keep a hundred divisions, his “Siberians” in the Far East to protect against a Japanese attack. It was only Richard Sorge’s assurance the Japanese wouldn’t attack allowed Stalin to start transferring his Siberians to the Moscow front and stall the German advance. Sorge, of course, was the greatest spy of World War II. Among his other achievements was warning the Soviet Union about Germany’s impending attack, the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, the German-Japanese pact, and the anti-Comintern pact.

Stalin, of course, refused to heed Sorge’s warning about the German offensive. But there may be more to this story. We’ve heard it argued that Stalin was planning on being the first to attack, which is why his forces were right at the front and his aircraft at forward airfields. This allowed the Germans to destroy the Soviet air force, and once German spearheads broke through the front and form gigantic encirclements to capture hundreds of thousands of Soviet troops at a go. Stalin being Stalin would not have told his generals he was planning an offensive. If he did intend to attack first, he may have been so focused on his plan that he refused to heed warnings about the Germans. Warnings also came from the Red Orchestra.

Unless someone invents a time machine, we’ll never know the truth of stories like this one. And the problem with the time machine is that scientists say it will not take you back to before it was invented. Which kind of makes the whole thing useless. Why invent a time machine in, say, 2311, and then say “now we store it for a hundred years so in 2411 we can go back to 2311”? Also, unless you don’t say a word to anyone, or touch anything, or pick up a pick up a book to take back, you’re going to change the past. In which case you won’t be going back to the year 2411. Of course, if your wife who is leaving you is waiting in 2411 with a court-order to take you to the cleaners, maybe you don’t want to go back. It could also be your wife hates you so much she decides to fetch her antique 12-guage dating from the 20^th Century and jumps into a time machine herself. Problems, problems.

0230 GMT January 9, 2012

So finally Editor gave in called Computer Geeks to take a look at his computer, which had been acting so badly he was losing 2-4 hours of productivity every day. $95 and five minutes later, Editor was reminded of the old joke about the heating mechanic who arrives at the house, makes one “ting” with his hammer and informs the owner the problem is fixed and the charge is $150. Owner says “A hundred and fifty dollars for one ting?” The mechanic says: “The ting was free. Knowing where to ting costs $150”. The Computer Geek whipped out a CD, put it in the CD drive, watched the screen intently for a couple of minutes, pressed a couple of keys, and said “you’re good to go.” The diagnostic CD told him McAfee was gumming up the entire works, he deleted McAfee. He also said what some of our readers have said, as also the youngster: McAfee and other programs are junk, just use the Windows free anti-virus. Well, to us old timers the words “Windows anti-virus” are an oxymoron, but apparently Microsoft has finally gotten its act together. Which does not explain why Word 2010 insists of periodically reformatting stretches of the Editor’s long documents…Be that as it may, the problem is now fixed. Of course, Expressions 4 which Editor is supposed to use since the crash wiped out his programs and FrontPage is no longer made, just sort of sits there and does nothing, forcing Editor to use Word for the news update and resulting it another productivity loss. The only satisfaction is that Bill “Pieface” Gates, or “Moron Smile” as he is affectionately called in sixty-eight languages (none of which he understands), is no longer the world’s richest person. Partly that is due to his giving away large sums to his foundation, but partly because Slim of Mexico just keeps getting richer.

Afghanistan Having failed with both the afghan National Army and the Afghan National Police, Washington is on to its Next Big Thing, the Afghan Local Police. Before we talk about the ALP, let’s talk about the astonishing lack of accountability in the national security field. As in Iraq, so in Afghanistan: it doesn’t matter what blunders the military and its civilian masters make, the failures are whitewashed as if they never existed, and we go on to the Next Big Thing. If that fails, not to worry, the Next Big Thing is around the corner. Now, Editor has been watching how the higher decision-making process in US national security works since 1965. But since he is an outsider, he hasn’t been able to crack the code: why do American military leaders and civilian leaders get away with murder and are never held to account? Can someone explain this to us?

Back to the ALP Inspired by the success of the Awakening Militias in Iraq, General Petraus came up with a ditto idea for Afghanistan. In the first phase, 30,000 locals are being trained, equipped, and paid to defend their villages. Before readers assume we are criticizing just for the sake of criticizing, Editor needs to make clear that as a theoretical construct, village defense is a core requirement of successful counter-insurgency. The villagers not just known the terrain and the local politics, they have every incentive to defend their villages, advantages which the country’s regular army may lack.

The big issue here is that for village militias to work, the villagers have to see the insurgents as their enemy. Al Qaeda came in from the outside after Saddam was overthrown and the tight structure of Iraqi internal security destroyed by the US. AQ was seen as the enemy. When the US gave the Sunnis the chance to defend themselves, the Sunnis jumped at the opportunity, and did an excellent job of putting down AQ. General Petraus, to the extent the idea of the Awakenings was his, deserves full credit for Iraq.

In Eastern and Southern Afghanistan, however, the Taliban are not seen as the enemy. They are seen as of the people, and to the extent anyone sees an enemy, its US/NATO and their running dogs, the Afghan National Army and Afghan National Police. Remember also that a considerable part of the ANA is from West and North Afghanistan. Afghanistan being a tribal society, the Tajiks are seen as the enemy rather than the Taliban. At no point are we saying that the Pushtoons of East and South Afghanistan are overjoyed when the Taliban roll up. The Taliban at times has been so extreme that none but the most conservative Afghans get overjoyed. Nonetheless, to the East and South Afghans, the quarrel with the Taliban is a quarrel among brothers, not between themselves and the enemy.

So when the Great Uncle rolls up to a village in a convoy of Humvees, clattering helicopters, and all the other paraphenalia of the US’s way of war, and announces it is recruiting for the Afghan Local Police, everyone in the village goes “Ooooooooh!” because this means (a) guns and (b) money. The only thing an Afghan loves more than money is guns, and here he is getting BOTH. Joyful joyful we adore thee, Great Uncle, that sort of thing.

But does this mean the next time 200 Taliban roll up in their turn, with a lot of “And verily ye shall pay to us taxes”, that the Afghan Local Police are going to go toe-to-toe with the Taliban? Doubtful. It’s not as if the Taliban are going to kill the villagers or oppress them. All the Taliban want is their taxes, information on the movements of the Foreign Great Satans, a few recruits, and a restoration of the social mores the Taliban enforce. There may be some grumbling about the last, but for every grumbler there will be one man who will say: “Yes!” and pump his fist in the air. The alternative, fighting it out, will create a high likelihood of people getting killed, and let’s face it, Better Red Than Dead and all that. And when Uncle is negotiating under the blankets with the Taliban, basically working out the terms under which America will be allowed to leave with “honor” (where have we heard that before?), who on earth wants to fight it out with the Taliban?

So this great idea of the Afghan Local Police is unlikely to work. Now let’s be rigorously fair. We accept 99% of people that are conversant with Afghanistan know this is not going to work. There’s always the 1% that are wide-eyed innocents till they learn better. We would be very surprised if in their strictly internal discussions the US military, intelligence, State, civilian development people think this is going to work. The Euros, of course, are proclaiming high and low it won’t work and feeling smugly moralistic about “knowing” so much more than the Americans, but in this case we think the Euros are the one’s not getting that the Americans too know it won’t work.

Our point is that the US today is playing high-stakes power in a hundred places around the world. Americans have a macho pride in their poker playing abilities, even more than Mom and Apple Pie poker is quintessentially American. So may we ask our American friends: When you have a bad hand, do you go on upping the ante or do you fold? We discussed Somalia yesterday and said how it seems the US may finally be getting the game of counter insurgency right. All without committing more than a few tens of millions dollars and a few hundred personnel. Why go on throwing more money at Afghanistan with ideas like the Afghan National Police? Just accept the inevitable: recognize the Taliban, change the US ambassador’s job to holding Hamid Karzai’s hand to working with the Taliban; offer $1-billion in annual aid, and we are reasonably certain the Talibs will become America’s BFF. How do we know? Well, there’s precedent, isn’t there? In one word, Vietnam.

0230 GMT January 8, 2012

Somalia Unnoticed in the excitement over Iran, US seems to be making some progress in Somalia. US has been training Ethiopian and Kenyan troops for some years. The Kenyan invasion of south Somalia proceeds, albeit slowly because of bad weather and – we suspect – inexperience. Deploying superior firepower including tactical air, the Kenyans defeat Al Shabaab whenever there is an engagement; the insurgents are surviving by not engaging. Meanwhile Ethiopia is making progress in its invasion of the center. The African Union force is making progress too. After pushing Al Shabaab out of the capital, ANISOM is looking to expand westward. Burundi and Uganda, which have done all the fighting so far, are finally being joined by a Djibouti battalion, which may encourage other African states to send troops promised long ago for the mission. The Burundi and Djibouti troops are, of course, also trained by the US and the US has extensive military ties with Uganda.

So this process of getting the locals to provide the infantry while the US provides small sums of money, lots of training, some light equipment, a bit of airlift, and a lot of intelligence is, of necessity, a slow business. But the US has been able to keep its involvement well under the radar of Congress and the media, a core requirement for insurgency. And of course, in insurgency, every victory is followed by setbacks, that’s the nature of the game. Still, we’re wondering if the US is finally getting the nag of the game. No one will be more surprised than your Editor, because he has sat and watched US failure in this form of warfare for 45 years now.

In counter-insurgency, it’s a huge error to go in with your own troops because it creates crippling dependencies leaving the locals unable to do anything. Prime case is Afghanistan, where after 10-years and half a trillion dollars there’s maybe three Afghan battalions that can fight on their own. And then even, not really. They still need US logistics and firepower. The large number of troops, the casualties, the money required all create a high-profile visibility which leads to continual Congress, media, and home public interference.

The insurgency game requires decades. This means the US has to respond to asymmetrical warfare, which is what insurgency is, with its own asymmetrical warfare. At least in Somalia things seem to be on track.

Incidentally, if you follow global business you will see the Chinese are in just about every part of Africa now. You can be walking along a track, in the middle of nowhere, minding your own business, and out of nowhere, you will see a bunch of Chinese businessmen and often labor industriously building something. Against that, there is almost no African country in which you will not find a US military presence.

Sorry, Mr. Paul, “I knew nothing” is not good enough We see no reason to doubt Mr. Ron Paul’s word when he said he knew nothing about the Lowest of the Low campaign adverts, aimed at Jon Huntsman. The advert features two of Huntsman’s seven children, a Chinese girl and an Indian girl, and insinuates Mr. Huntsman is not a real American for having adopted them.

Nonetheless, Mr. Paul should be acting swiftly to call out those who made this ad, and excommunicating them from his campaign.

What makes the ad doubly reprehensible, in our opinion, is that the Chinese girl was abandoned by her family in a market at age six months, and the Indian girl was abandoned in a field after she was born. In both countries the preference for boys is so strong that China and India are already suffering severe gender imbalances which are going to impact on their stability as more and more men are finding no chance of getting married. Those Chinese and Indians who rescued the two infants deserve praise, and the Huntsman family deserves double praise for having given the two a new life. With five children of their own already, the Huntsman family could easily have said “how will we manage even more children?” It shows great generosity – and a real pro-life commitment, if we may say – to have done as the family did.

For the American public this episode carries a warning. Unless the voters punish negative campaigning, this morass will only deepen. Far from condemning negative campaigningt, American voters seem to relish it as yet another blood sport.

Editor has nothing against blood sports. Providing those who want blood sport put their own blood in the game. That is why Editor is absolutely opposed to hunting animals. He is all for people hunting each other. It’s a popular enough theme in the sci-fi novels, so a lot of the kinks in the idea have been already worked out.

One contribution we have to the game of The Hunt is that both sides should pay PETA to put up roadside memorials to the loser. The State of Illinois can charge licensing fees and use those fees to make sure the checks it writes to lotto winners clear. http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2012/01/05/illinois-lottery-winners-get-stiffed-when-state-checks-dont-cash/

We are aware Illinois says the checks didn’t bounce, someone didn’t set a code that would have allowed the checks to clear. That’s a new one for why a check didn’t clear.

0230 GMT January 7, 2012

For the first time the west has announced the outlines of its oil strategy in the event of a Straits of Hormuz closure. Ten million barrels/day of crude and four million barrels/day will be drawn down for up to a month. Saudi will send 3.5-million barrels/day down the Yanabu pipeline. Its capacity is greater, but part of its capacity is required for Saudi’s domestic consumption. The Trans Oman pipeline which is now ready and fully tested, will ship another 1.5-million.

Meanwhile, the latest Oil Market Review put out by the US Energy Information Administration on December 13, 2011, gives OCED oil stocks as 2.6-billion barrels, sufficient for 57-days.

You will ask: okay, so OECD is prepared, what about the rest of the world? Well, OECD imports 12-million barrels/day and five million barrels goes to other countries. That’s why OECD plans to release 14-million bbl/day from stocks, with Yanabu/Oman pipelines making another 5-million available.

Now of course, this rerouting and so on is not done overnight. But that’s why most countries have their own oil stocks. India, for example, has 74 days stored, not as a strategic reserve, but just the normal business stockpile.

The upshot of this is that a Hormuz closure for some weeks, when countered with a suspension of forward trading, can be borne with some problems but nothing existential.

There are degrees of closure How best can Iran close Hormuz? The conventional business of attacking tankers won’t work because within days there will be no shore-based missile sites or ships to attack tankers. What about the hundreds, perhaps even 1000 small boats that Iran is supposed to have? Surely many will remain hidden during the inevitable air attacks the west will launch. True, but what exactly are these 2- to 6-crew boats supposed to achieve? They might be able to sink a rubber dinghy. And after each sortie there will be many fewer, because they will be detected and attacked. It’s not necessary to assume every last boat has to be neutralized: there comes a point when enough casualties have been inflicted that the survivors decide they are not up for further suicide runs.

On an average day, 28 supertankers transit the Straits; 14 out and 14 in. It’s not a complicated matter to provide each tanker with armed parties on board and naval escorts to take care of the small boats left after the initial cleanup. Similarly, channels will be swept of mines on a continuous basis.

The hypothetical threat is the two supertanker channels which are 3-km wide. If Iran could sink ships in those channels, this could mess up the supertankers. So – voila – you shift to smaller vessels of which there are plenty in the world. They don’t need to use the two supertanker channels. Inefficient, yes, and may be you don’t ship 17-million barrels/day. But that’s fine, if you get even half that out, you’re extending the life of oil stockpiles, giving you more time to get things back to normal.

A question of who strikes first In most of the scenarios produced by amateurs, the first strike is conceded to Iran. First, its unwise to make that assumption. The West has an enormous signal intercept capability and it will pick up any indications an attack is planned. Next, it’s not as if at midnight Iran gives the order to close Hormuz and it’s done. Several days of preparation time are required and that’s going to be picked up too. You might well see a preemptive Western strike before Iran really gets underway. As it is the US in particular is itching for an excuse to attack. There’s a lot of salivating and pawing the turf and straining at the leash so as to speak. If Iran as much as starts stepping up its readiness, it’s likely the west will attack rather than take chances.

Meanwhile, back at the Iranian ranch we learn that people are now having to pay twice as much for their I-Phones as they did before the sanctions started destroying the value of the rial. Okay, so if someone really thinks that expensive I-Phones are going to lead to Iran handing over its N-program to the IAEA, then our code word for that person is “Room 255”. That’s the padded cell at Saint Elizabeth’s in Washington DC that is still empty last we checked.

You will say, come on, Editor, be serious. The Iranian economy is in shambles and it will just get worse. Factories are closing down. People are being thrown out of work. Many kinds of imports are halted. This has to hurt.

Sure it’s hurting. But remember Saddam post 1991? No country has ever had to undergo the brutal sanctions Iraq did. Did Saddam say “Uncle”? No, in fact he didn’t even have a chemical warfare program anymore or WMDs, but he still refused to let the world free movement to confirm that 100%. It’s called pride. We’d be acting very foolish if we thought the Iranians are going to give up their N-program because they’re undergoing hardship. It’s the middle class gets destroyed, as we say in Iraq. The rich manage. The poor don’t have much to begin with. People who live in rural areas manage fine. And if the middle class gets destroyed, guess who does the touchdown dance? Why, the Iranian mullahs and the other people who run Iran. We’re doing them the best favor by our sanctions.

The above answers the question of can we force regime change. First, replace the current regime with whom? People who may well be even more hardline? Second, remember how we forced regime change in Iraq and lately in Libya: at gunpoint.

To the US’s credit there are few people – that we know at least – in Washington who really believe sanctions will work. It’s all being done in the interests of building coalitions, of showing the wobbly Euros that we are not warmongers (whereas of course the only thing we do really, well anymore is war). Which leads us to reiterate: you want to end the Iran N-program, you have to whack I and keep it whacked. It’s not complicated.

The real question we should ask – if at all we are inclined to ask any questions – is why we should care if Iran goes nuclear. For seven decades no one has really question what are America’s real interests in the world. We are a thoroughly militarized country, and thanks to 2001 now our home front is also through militarized. Is this best for America? Some people who go beyond the usual liberal-conservative combined group think that there is no corner of the world that is not vital to our national security say this is not best for America, and that in fact we have changed into a country that would have shocked and horrified not just the Founding Fathers, but most Americans upto 1940.

It’s a point of view that cannot be shouted away as is usually the case when someone brings it up. Is the Editor bringing it up? Unfortunately, the Editor is a bit too American in his ways. He is a firm believer force solves all problems, and if force hasn’t solved a particular problem, it’s because not enough was applied. So, by all means debate if force is the answer – but after we whack Syrian, Iran, and North Korea, please.

0230 GMT January 6, 2012

Some facts on modern tankers were explained to us by a reader. First, they have double hulls – mandated for environmental reasons. Then they are huge, and built in compartments. Last, crude oil is not easy to set on fire. So it’s not as easy to sink tankers as Iran seems to suggest. The point about the crude was something new to the Editor. When one thinks of tankers being hit naturally one’s mind goes to the tankers that had to transit the Atlantic in World War 2. You could not get anything more incendiary than an oil tanker. But those tankers were carried refined fuel, not crude.

The one thing we’re a bit confused on is NATO/EU’s mine warfare capability. It seems to us that after the fall of the Soviet Union, this capability has been very substantially reduced. If we are correct, mines would be a problem, particularly free-floating types. Of course, you don’t want to just throw mines into the water because currents and waves are complex things, and you don’t really want hundreds of mines heading back to your own shore. And BTW, laying mines is a time-consuming and specialized business. You don’t just decide at noon “hey, we’re going to lay a few hundred or a few thousand mines” and then do the job by the next day. The Persian Gulf may be the most heavily surveilled (there we go again, turning nouns into verbs) body of water in the world. In case of tension, surveillance will be stepped up immediately. Ships and craft laying mines will be detected, and they will be destroyed.

We’re not in a position to give a time-frame, but still, you get the point. Debka.com http://www.debka.com/article/21606/ says its “US sources” say Hormuz will be cleared of mines in 24-48 hours. We’re not so sure, but it doesn’t matter, because the world has several weeks of oil reserves.

The mysterious X-37B Spaceplane may be eavesdropping on the Chinese space station, says Spaceflight, the magazine of the British Interplanetary Society http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-16423881 The space station is expected to receive its first Chinese astronauts in 2012, and BIS speculates that the station likely has military as well as civilian uses, thus the US snooping.

The problem is, you don’t need to have your latest ultra-secret space gadget snoop on anyone’s telemetry. The space station sends data to earth, and the US – as well as you, dear reader – is free to record it and make of it when can be made of it. Surely the data is encrypted, but for that sort of stuff you have the National Security Agency. Yes, US would doubtless like close in fotos of the space station, and since X-37B is maneuverable, you can get all the fotos you want and carry on to your business.

Of course, no one seems to know what the X-37B’s business is, but another analyst speculates the spaceplane is testing equipment for the next-generation of spy satellites and is likely watching the Mideast.

Want senior American government executives to be honest? Trying paying them decently This has been suggested, we are told, by the blog Instapundit. Some decades ago Editor did a similar exercise for India and concluded that paying 40,000 senior Indian bureaucrats, judges, police, and military officers in US dollars and wage levels comparable to not-fully-developed European countries would provide a core of honest, smart, and dedicated administrators. This would help the country develop much faster. Editor used to come up up with two to five fully worked out ideas every day, and he also figured out how to pay for this. But of course he has no idea what would be required in the US. Can’t be much though, a few tens of billions a year.

Now, American bureaucrats ARE pretty honest on the job. What happens is their salaries are so much lower than those of comparable private sector executives, that as soon as they can American bureaucrats get into the revolving door thing. The corruption occurs when you have all these former administrators working and lobbying for private companies.

For example, as nearly as we can figure, the Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff will earn $250,000 a year. Of course he gets allowances and perks, but so does his civilian counterpart in spades and buckets. The Chairman JCS is responsible for something like 3-million active and reserve personnel. That is one heck of a big company. By comparison, in Washington a top-of-the-class law graduate from a top school can start at a top law firm , at age 25, at about the same salary (Editor realizes salaries have come down since 2008, he’s likely out of date, but again, we’re making a point which is self-evident.)

You don’t want your generals being lobbyists, pay them something decent, say $5-million a year and ban them from joining the private sector, ever. Right now, morally, you cannot impose bans because the public sector salaries are so low for senior execs. It’s understood the woman or the man has the right to make up in the private sector what s/he has given up in the public sector.

And we do hope readers will not write and say “Wait a minute, that’s my money you’re giving away.” America is a straight Money-Above-All culture. You want government executives that will operate for the country’s benefit instead of for the private sector’s benefit, pay them properly.

0230 GMT January 5, 2012

Lot of small stuff happening that may or may not be significant

So here we have the aspiring world power, aka India that is Bharat Bharat is the name of the legendary warrior from the Mahabharat, the Indian epic that is so akin to the Greek legends that people have wondered if we aren’t really looking at the same story. Others have argued that no, the Greek and Indian epics embody universal archetypes. Be that as it may, Bharat is modern India’s official name. The old name was Hindustan, or land of the Hindus, and we’re not at all clear on why this was not acceptable to independent India. Perhaps our occasional Indian reader can explain.

Where this expression “India that is Bharat” comes from, Editor cannot say, or give the context. He heard someone use it once, and has used it since.

But we meander. So in 1999, the Government of India assesses that India needs 24 modern submarines to meet the increasing Pakistan and Chinese capabilities. At that time India has 14 boats, ten Kilos and 4 German Type 209s. In 1999, these boats are doing okay, but everyone can see they will need to start being replaced.

So the plan is that by 2011 India will have 12 new boats, and another 12 by 2020.

So 12 years later, there is not a single new boat, and the 14 are down to 50% effective. The first of a class of six, the French Scorpenes, was laid down in 2006, and may be ready by 2015. Since its being built in India, the “may” is a very, very big may. Another may be ready by 2016, and the third by 2017. But the next three have yet to be laid down. Realistically, when you are taking nine years (theoretically) to build one boat, about what it takes the US to produce a super-carrier, not that the US is renown for the speed and efficiency of its ship-building these days, by 2020 India may have four new submarines. And five of the current 14 will be operational.

India spends a lot of time discussing its plans: another six Scorpenes, while simultaneously a second production line will build a follow-up, the Project 75i. Six of these boats will be built with an option for six more. So voila! 24 boats.

Problem, dudes. India did an RFP for the second batch of Scorpenes late last year. It will be 2014 – at best – before a decision is made. As for the Project 75i, various countries are getting their proposals ready.

It’s very likely India will hit 2025 with 8-10 boats, and it will be 2030 and later before India gets to 24. By which time that number will be wholly, totally, completely, hopelessly inadequate against China, which will have super-power status.

The submarine program is just one pathetic example of the way India functions. Other major programs that are so far behind schedule that its not even a joke anymore include artillery modernization, main battle tanks, and fighter aircraft.

Its not a question of the money: India spends just 2% of its GDP on defense, and even then yawns when told that such and program will cost $10-billion for starters. $10-billion, or even $15-billion, or even $20-billion for a program? India has the money.

The issue is India cannot get its defense production act together, and is not bothered to get it together.

In Indian cosmology, God created this, and an infinity of other universes, simply by dreaming of them. It’s a variant of the Christian God’s speaking the word, and the Christian God, of course, created just this one universe.

What the Indians have yet to understand is that once manifest on the material plane, it takes a little bit more than dreaming of being a superpower to make it so. It takes planning, organization, and execution.

Planning? Organization? Execution? To the Government of India, when it comes to defense, these are foul words that must immediately be banished from the vocabulary. And so they have, leaving India not a potential superpower, but a potential potential superpower.

EU likely to impose Iran oil ban by end of January Just a repeat for those readers who may have missed the US/EU theory on the point of the oil ban. Iran will be forced to sell its oil to non-embargoing countries at a discount, hitting its finances. Personally we don’t think this is going to change anything, for reasons we’ve covered in some depth. First, oil being fungible you really cannot stop oil from just one country entering your refineries and ports’ it will enter with different papers, that’s about oil. Second, assuming we’re wrong, and assuming Iran’s oil revenue goes down, that will be not stop them from pushing their N-weapons program.

In case you’re wondering: if EU doesn’t buy Iran oil, won’t demand for non-Iran oil increase pushing up the price from non-Iranian suppliers? No, because Saudi has said it will pump additional oil to keep the price from increasing.

The UK Telegraph is unimpressed by Romney’s Iowa win It notes he won by 8 words against a candidate who has no national standing; he won 17 counties of a possible 99, Santorum won 63; he spent $113 per vote, Santorum spent $1.65. The Telegraph’s point? That Romney is unacceptable to the conservative base, and that the great number of candidates split the base, working to Romney’s advantage. But what an insignificant advantage it is. Telegraph allows he will win New Hampshire, but then things are going to get tough. In South Carolina and Florida, for example, Newt leads, and with GOP candidates dropping out, votes will not be split so much. http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100127212/romneys-tainted-iowa-win-suggests-the-republican-race-might-run-longer-than-expected/

So: Editor has no dog in this game, but if the GOP wants Mr. Obama to win, it can do no better than put up someone other than Romney. The winner of the 2012 election has to appeal to the country as a whole, not just to the conservative base. If the GOP wants to self-destruct in the interests of ideological purity, then what can we say except “Good luck, its been real.” Its been said: push-to-shove, this is neither a Red country or a Blue country. It’s a purple country.

0230 GMT January 4, 2012

Short update tonight, computer problems galore. Adobe getting in everyone’s beeswax and creating problems. McAfee hasn’t apparently updated itself or done a proper scan in a year – it was a Super Bug that cause Editor’s computer crash after Thanksgiving and the loss of a ton of files plus the money to get a new computer. Microsoft Word decides to go on strike, crashing the computer every time an Office program is open. Internet Explorer crashing every 20-minutes for the last several weeks. PayPal creating problems – but then when does PayPal not create problems.

Iran says to US: “Keep your carriers out of the Gulf, we don’t like repeating ourselves” We haven’t checked with anyone, but we’re pretty sure there’s a of celebrating in Washington because the geniuses here will be saying: “Iran’s losing it, the sanctions are really starting to bite. We’re winning.”

Yes, Iran IS losing it, the sanctions ARE really hurting now – the banking one is what’s killing them – the rial is sinking so fast Iranian forex traders don’t post prices anymore because b the time they get a price up and someone walks in, the rial has likely sunk lower, and Iran is NOT going to give up its N-weapons program.

Why does this need to be explained to Washington? Look: after Gulf 1991, Afghanistan 2001, and Gulf 2003, objectively speaking for Iran to give up its N-program will be an act of suicide. They will give up their youngest wives and their last-born, but they wont give up the N-program.

If, as Washington maintains, the Iranian N-program is an existential threat to US security, there’s only one way to stop their N-program. Pry it from the cold, dead hands. Repeat: DEAD hands. Get it Washington?

We can argue if it is a threat to US. Ron Paul is not automatically wrong, you know, because he’s said racist things in the past. The school of thought that said US should mind its own business has a very powerful argument which of course the Washingtoons will never buy because it means they’ll have to get real jobs once the Industrial-Military Complex ends. And remember, it was Ike – no flaming radical or libertarian – who said the MIC was the great threat to America. The man knew a bit about what he spoke.

Arguing this point is an utter waste of time because the MMIC – Media Military Industrial Complex is so powerful it cannot be shaken. So what we’re saying is IF Washington says Iran nuclear is really, really bad, then Editor is very sorry, but unless we whack ‘em, they will go nuclear. Not today. Not in 5-years. But in 10, maybe. In 20 likely. In 30 for sure. You can sanction and negotiate, cajole and threaten, and they will not quit on their own.

Our reader Luxembourg is keeping up his continuing crusade to bring attention to (a) the cesspool of corruption that is Chicago – spiritual home to our Fearless Leader; (b) stop government from enriching one group of people at the expense of others; and (c) the general craziness of all sides that has become the new normal for America.

Generally, Editor and Luxembourg share many a laugh at the 10-20 news items he sends daily. Today he sent one that caused Editor to turn around to his date and say “Not tonight, my dear, I have a headache.” Okay, what we mean to say it is as well Editor gets no date because had he a date, this news item would have given him a massive headache on two fronts. First, the news, and second the beating he would have gotten from the hypothetical date. The women in this part of the US are terribly pricey to begin with, and if they agree to a date and then you claim a headache you are contemplating life in a wheelchair because they do not like being dissed.

So you’re saying “Can you please get on with the news Luxembourg gave you and stop your pathetic stories about your non-existent love-life, which really shows how truly pathetic you are because ANY guy in America, even a mass-murderer who weighs 500-lbs, has a face that gives cows constipation, and has the social graces of a drug-addicted frog gets a date whenever he wants it.” Okay, okay, how can we get on with the story if readers keep interrupting to make fun of the Editor?

The news? On New Year’s Day, 40,000 new laws kicked into existence all over the US. Fourty.Thousand. New. Laws. Is your head hurting yet?

Luxembourg also sends a story that women do not go for cheerful men. They go for brooding types who can’t look them in the eye and who look ashamed of themselves, presumably because they are such jerks they can’t stand even themselves. Is Luxembourg subtly trying to tell Editor if he persists with his pick-up line “I haven’t had a date since 1958, and that one was a blind-date with an 800-pound Iowa lady hog which didn’t go well because contrary to what people say, Iowa hogs are not THAT nearsighted” he is unlikely to EVER get a date?

Jokes, aside, the matter is very simple. Editor was married to someone or the other for nigh on 40 years. There was never a shortage of dates. Embarrassment of riches and so on. The day the word got around on the GFN (Global Female Network) that Mrs. R IV had left Editor, the shortage of dates became as problematic as school snow-closing days on Mercury. See, women don’t want other women’s discards even if there are no other men around. If some other woman has you, they want you. Otherwise not. To some extent it works the other way too: men are instantly attracted to women “owned” by other men. It doesn’t matter if the woman is the self-same lady hog from Iowa, other men have to get her way from her husband.

But more on this another time. Tonight Editor has a headache.

0230 GMT January 3, 2012

Syria Some opposition groups are asking Arab League observers not be withdrawn. They say however flawed, the presence of observers has given the opposition confidence, and demonstrations have grown because demonstrators are more confident government response will have to be more muted.
According to the BBC, Arab League says an overt Syrian Army presence has disappeared from the cities, but snipers remain. Well, using snipers is obviously a far more efficient way of killing demonstrators, not least because the majority of Syrian draftees are Sunnis as is the population. Snipers don’t defect to the opposition. Twenty people were killed on Monday.
A question for our Republican friends Why exactly do Republicans want to win the presidency in 2012? Do they really think they have solutions for what ails America? Will they be able to get America out of the economic mess it is in? Plans to cut spending work – in the long run. In the short run such plans cause growth to stall. Do they really want to repeal universal health care, deeply flawed as is the Obama plan? What exactly do they propose to do to solve the social security and health care problems, problems that are driving this country into bankruptcy? When it comes time to cut pensions and ration health care, do GOP candidates really believe the country, regardless of voting ideology, will simply go “Ooooh! Oooooh! What a great idea?” What precisely is the GOP’s magic wand that will solve the North Korean, Iranian, and Syrian problems? What is the secret formula that will enable the GOP to tame China and to stop Russia from falling into fascism?
If Mr. Obama had any sense, he would stand down in 2012, let the GOP win, watch while the GOP destructs, and then come back. He’s young enough to bide his time. As it is, he will win because every single black voter, 80% of Hispanic voters, and half of the moderates, will vote for him when push comes to shove. That’s aside from the center-left and left voters whom he owns. And that’s if Mitt Romney is the GOP candidate. If it’s someone else, forget it, it’s going to be a Barry Goldwater election. He will win, and he will fail, just as he won and failed in 2008-2012.
Forecasting economics and politics is an inevitably frustrating business. It’s hard to get it right because you really don’t know what’s going to happen till after it happens. Most recently, who imagined Mr. Obama and not Mrs. Clinton would be the 2008 Democratic nominee? So perhaps we are wrong. Perhaps Mr. Obama will not win, and perhaps a GOP President will resolve our problems.
Then, too, maybe pigs will fly and a pig in lipstick will win Miss Universe. And may be the Editor will get a date on Saturday night.
From Vern Liebl I was reading your comments from 31 Dec 2011 and I noted the discussion you outlined between yourself and Reader Scott.
In reference to Cuba and whether it was an embargo or a blockade, it was neither; it was officially labeled a "quarantine." That way it avoided the military implications of a blockade as well as the economic implications of an embargo.
Oddly, just day-before-yesterday Editor watched a few minutes of “13 Days” at the gym. The choice was between watching this svelte lady next to Editor or the movie. When the movie is a nostalgic one with nice shots of F-8s and A-4s and Gearing destroyers, obviously svelte ladies lose. So six of the Russian ships have not turned back, and the admiral has told a destroy to fire star shells to get their attention. McNamara is freaking out, and the admiral is saying to please get out of his way, the US Navy has been doing blockades since the days of John Paul Jones, and he, the admiral, is simply implementing the President’s orders of October 23. McNamara looks imploringly at heaven, rolls his eyes, and says, Admiral, the President is using a new kind of language here.
Editor guessed McNamara was about to say a quarantine is not a blockade, and since there wasn’t going to be a nice sea battle, decided that perhaps the svelte lady could be ignored no longer.[Of course, the lady was having no problem ignoring the Editor, but that’s life.]
In Iran’s case, of course, the US has been talking about an embargo, which is that neither it nor its embargo partners will buy Iranian oil. Unless a blockade is imposed, this is just useless hot air because it is not going to hurt Iran. But Editor’s town, Washington DC, specializes in hot air of all sorts, so this is not precisely a new development.

0230 GMT January 2, 2012

Not news: Arab League mission to Syria fails News: sun set in the west yesterday. Sorry to be sarcastic when people are getting killed, but what exactly did the Arab League expect when it sent an observer mission to Syria headed by an indicted war criminal, a Sudanese general? The Arab League Parliament has declared no confidence in the mission, saying – surprise – that President Assad of Syria was using it to legitimize his repression. Matters have not been helped by the head of the mission openly contradicting his own observers. For example, one observer told the press he saw snipers, but mon generale said he didn’t.
Again, we understand a process has to be gone through and a consensus built. That the Arab parliament recognizes the mission is a failure is a step forward in building a consensus, but its just plain sad people continue to be killed every day while people dither.
Not news: Al Qaeda takes over most of Southern Yemen News: sun set in the west day-before-yesterday. Anyone following AQ – something we do sporadically – has known for some time the organization has made huge inroads into South Yemen. To the extent it has a new base to replace Pakistan. What is the solution?
Well, Editor is a firm believer in the “Kill Them Faster Than They Can Breed” strategy of CI. You’re going to say – correctly – this did not work in Second Indochina and is not working in Afghanistan. No dispute, bro. But in both cases the strategy was not followed through because sanctuaries were untouched. Each time the baddies took a whipping, they retreated to the sanctuaries and rebuilt. Whoa, whoa, you say. We know US is not attacking Pakistan sanctuaries – this drone campaign is a minor blip considering tens of thousands of insurgents go back and forth. But we surely bashed all heck out of the Viet Cong/NVA sanctuaries, and where did it get us?
Nowhere, but that’s because we didn’t bash the real sanctuaries, which were in North Vietnam. Sure we kept whacking North Vietnam’s transportation network. But if our air planners had bothered to remember what happened in Western Europe in World War II, they wouldn’t have placed any hope on the air campaign. In Italy, the Germans kept operating in the face of a massive interdiction campaign aimed at the transport infrastructure. And the North Vietnamese just kept right on trucking despite the up to 500-sorties/day flown against their network.
To have done a proper job, it was necessary to attack the network into North Vietnam via China land route and via sea. We got around to mining Haiphong very late in the war. And though some Vietnamese historians deny it, the mining got Hanoi to serious talks very quickly. There was no point to it because we went to the peace talks to get an excuse to sell out the South Vietnamese, who had suffered enormously fighting on our side. North Vietnamese waters should have been mined in 1965, at the start of the major US intervention. And those rail-lines, roads, and bridges from China should have been attacked, and kept attacked every single day.
Oh but we would have provoked China to enter the war. Okay, so if you’re worried about China then just forget it and bring the boys home and be done with it.
Second Indochina discredited – so we thought – the notion of a limited war. Which is why 1991 and 2003 were not limited wars. 1991 speaks for itself, 2003 the conventional part of the war went exceedingly well despite every effort made by Rummy the Rumsfeld to make sure it failed. (Unfair attack? Not a bit. The man’s ego was more important to him than what his generals told him was needed. Probably dressed up like Robert McNamara at home after locking the study door.)
But what do we do when we get into Afghanistan? Another limited war.
But, you can argue, US doesn’t do limited war well. So the drone strategy is a viable alternative. Wrong and wrong. We are going to lose the Afghan war, because just like Vietnam 1972, we are begging, crawling, sucking up to the enemy saying “Please release me, let me go.” The drone strategy has not done a feather to winning the Afghani insurgency, and as for AQ, the cockroaches have just shifted to a different building.
The mistake we’re making with this drone thing is having understood – once again, to the point Bob Dylan can start singing “How many roads” – that we cannot fight counterinsurgencies, that we are just about the worst possible at CI – we’re avoiding exploring political solutions by living in this fantasy world of drone warfare. This may be the first war that is being fought not because it gets us anywhere, but because it allows our boys and girls to do what every red-blooded American wants to do: PLAY VIDEO GAMES AND GET PAID!. Given our national blood lust, this drone thing is even better, because we get to actually kill people while suffering, at worst, eye strain and calluses on our hands.
(This is not going to make a great MASH series, you can already tell: Helicopter battalion commander “Abort, abort! Enemy fire is too heavy!” Fabio looking helicopter pilot: “No sir, those are our boys and gals out thee bleeding and dying, I’m going in to get them out, will all respect, colonel!” On the ground: “Bob! Hang in there buddy, I can hear the helicopters, those medevac boys and gals never bug out, hang in there and we’ll have to back at the MASH with as many cold ones as you can drink…” Helicopter co-pilot: “Chief, you gotta abort, the incoming is heavy enough to figure skate on, we don’t have a chance!” “Stay calm, my man, we’re almost down….rescue, get ready…” Medics with stretcher: Go go go!” Helicopter pilot: “Dang, those AQs are crawling like termites out of their holes…door gunner, hose ‘em! “ Rat-tat-tat-tats interspersed with cries of “Die, you heathen scum, die! USA! USA!” Medics sprint back with casualty screaming “Go go go!” Helicopter pilot: “We’re so outta here! Hang on everyone, this is going to be one wild ride!” Medic to casualty: “You’re safe now, buddy, don’t give up, we’ll have you back at the MASH is no time!”. At the MASH hospital, Hawkeye answers an urgent summons, slams down the phone and yells: “Houlihan! Casualty coming in! Get ready to operate!” Houlihan: “Doc, we’re so out of band-aids, the casualties have been too heavy and resupply, like, is still on its way!” Hawkeye: “Dammit, Houlihan, don’t you understand this man is mortally wounded! Take off that padded bra and help me get it around his hands!” Houlihan rips off her blouse and then her bra. Hawkeye shouts: “USA! USA!”. A long time later the casualty raises himself up on his elbows and says “Er, doc, if you can spare a minute, I think the band-aid resupply has arrived.” Houlihan: “Oh on some enchanted evening…USA! USA!” You can tell this version of MASH lacks a certain je ne sais quoi…)
So you say, okay, Editor, what’s your point? Simple. Accept once and for all we do the big wars flawlessly. We suck at the little stuff. Give up on Counter Insurgency and just go for the political solution to begin with.

0230 GMT January 1, 2012

Don’t Negotiate With Iran

Having painted itself into a corner with its belligerent threats to close Hormuz, Iran is now trying to escape by saying it is now ready to negotiate on its N-weapons program. How many more times is Iran going to be allowed to pull this bluff? Negotiations have been going on for years, the Iran N-program has not been delayed a day by talks. If Iran is willing to open its entire N-program to the IAEA for inspection, surveillance, and control, that’s good, but that doesn’t have to be negotiated. Iran is free to go to Vienna and make its own arrangements; no one is standing in the way.
US will say “But we aren’t at the stage the world is ready to act against Iran. We must continue building a consensus, so we must negotiate.”
We explained yesterday there will never be a consensus The countries that will back a US attack on Iran are already in line. Those that do not – and that’s a majority of the world, folks, sorry if that makes you feel bad, but that’s the reality – will not be convinced till Iran nukes Tel Aviv, and we surely are giving our readers no information they already don’t have when we say that even after Iran nukes Tel Aviv, most of the world will not agree to a western attack on Iran.
Having fooled the United Nations good and proper on Saddam, US will not get a consensus at the UN for any more preemptive action. It is best to just get on with the business of attacking Iran. Why? Because its safer to do that.
We are not among the crowd that says “oooh, oooh, Iran will go nuclear in 6-months.” Iran is still years away from an N-weapon. US knows this, one reason for Washington’s seeming lethargy. Nonetheless, why take the chance? Iran is not going to give up its N-option no matter what, so what is going to change in the next five years? Since an attack is inevitable, do it now and finish with it.
Five years from now does the US want to fight off Chinese SAMs and take the chance of hitting Chinese warships shielding Iran ports?

The rest of the news

PETA and its proposed memorial to cows killed at two places on Illinois highways is not an April Fool’s joke, it’s a reality. Illinois has said no, memorials are for people, not for cows.
Before we comment Editor needs to make clear he supports PETA. He doesn’t send it money, but he doesn’t send money to anyone. He completely supports PETA’s mission and he has his own stories of how animals are a lot smarter and communicate with each other a lot more than we humans in our arrogance think. One story: In Editor’s hometown in India, one day there is such a gosh-darn awful racket outside he gets into the street. The place is an urban forest, with 100-200 feet tall deodars. One tree is surrounded by a whole bunch of crows, who are dive bombing a branch. Along with the crows are a bunch of sparrows. Finally a flying squirrel takes off from the tree, heads to another tree and makes its escape. The crows take off too. The sparrows stay on the tree and settle down. Mystery solved: the flying squirrel was trying to raid the sparrows’ nest, likely for eggs. Left to themselves, the sparrows were too small to fight off the flying squirrel. Crow cavalry to the rescue. Now, if you watch crows, you know they are a bunch of vicious fighters and they don’t get scared. But if you know your crows, you also know they attack other birds nest, eat the eggs, and even the chicks. Crows are not friends of any birds. Yet, when this emergency arose, the crows became the good guys. Not only do crows and sparrows communicate, but in this case the crows bailed out the sparrows.
Everyone has similar stories and as far as Editor is concerned, hunting for sport is murder (hunting people is acceptable), and eating animals is murder. Says the man who scarfed turkey for lunch, tuna for a snack, and a hot dog (that’s because it’s New Year’s and Editor has to celebrate, otherwise no hot dogs allowed in his diet). Okay, all of you who have tried to quit eating meat know if you’re brought up on meat it’s very, very hard to quit. So Editor is a royal hypocrite, but the point he’s making is he is all for PETA.
With the disclaimers out of the way Editor can get to his reaction when reader Luxembourg sent him the link about the cattle memorial story. Reaction was not to laugh, but to bang head. Why are Americans so completely whacked out? Have they no sense of proportion, no balance, no reasoning ability?
Well, obviously not, reader Luxembourg would say, otherwise why would Americans elected Mr. Obama, and as Editor would say, how would you otherwise have a bunch of clowns contending for the GOP nomination (except Mr. Romney, of course; you may not like his politics, but he is a serious person). Why would you have a country that demands fiscal responsibility, but every time someone says “well, that tax break has to go, then,” or “we have to cut spending then,” people freak? Why would you have a country that says it’s perfectly fine for hundreds of thousands of people to die of alcohol and tobacco poisoning every year but throw people in jail for marijuana? Why would you have people who faint when a politician tells them the truth about what America needs to get back on track, insist he tell them lies instead, and then excoriate the politician for lying? Which other country insists it is the most patriotic in the world, but 99% of its citizens refuse to fight for the country? Obviously we are an illogical, non-reasoning, whacked out lot
All that said, how does PETA expect people to take it seriously when it proposes memorials to cows killed crossing the road? By the way, we believe people were hurt in those accidents. And we read PETA wanted a memorial to a bunch of hogs who got killed when a truck taking them to market overturned.
Here’s a memorial along an Illinois highway Editor can support. This memorial will say: “PETA’s Common Sense: RIP”

0230 GMT December 31, 2011

Blockade versus Embargo

Reader Scott wrote in to say Editor was mistaken that an embargo is an act of war We had an informative back-and-forth exchange, the gist of which is that an embargo only says the US decides not to buy or sell from Iran. Iran is perfectly free to buy and sell from/to anyone else. Take, for example, the US embargo against Cuba. Scott notes that while we refuse to do business, other nations are free to operate as they see best. An embargo, then, is not a blockade. For Iran to threaten to close Hormuz is an act of thuggery.
Let us first admit Scott is entirely correct: an embargo is not a blockade; the latter is an act of war, the former is not. Next let us face the uncomfortable reality that if all the US/Allies are planning to embargo Iranian oil, then our leaders are again pulling a fast one. Let’s look at the mechanics of an embargo.
At such-and-time, it becomes illegal for the US to buy or sell Iran oil. Well, for starters, the US does not buy or sell Iranian oil right now, so what is the big deal? The embargo, of course, will be joint with many other countries. And it will mean nothing. Oil is fungible. A tanker loads oil, unloads it somewhere, and the oil goes where it will. Saying Western tankers are not to carry Iran oil will cause big yawns. Tankers will be reflagged overnight. The oil will be “bought” by China. The tanker will put to see. Traders will buy the China-bound crude on the sea and send it where they want. The traders have not busted the embargo: they bought oil from China.
Is the US planning to follow tankers, board them, and test where the oil has come from? Tankers can be boarded under UN authority. Ships suspected of carrying missile components from DPRK are routinely tracked and boarded, and if necessary diverted. [UN Resolution 1874, for you lawyer types.] But we will never get a UN resolution because China will veto it, likely also Russia.
Further, all that will happen is that Iranian oil will head for China, and Saudi oil that would have gone to China will go to Germany or wherever.
At this point the US Government might respond: We know this. But if Iran can sell oil directly only to non-embargoing countries, it will have to sell at a discount because China, India, or whoever depends on Iran oil will have the upper hand and be able to negotiate discounts. Also, Iran will have to offer traders discounts to offset all the inconvenience of rerouting oil, getting dirty looks from the US and so on. So Iran will lose money and this will put pressure on it.
Our response is: Editor being from Iowa is a simple person, and definitely lacks the sophistication to appreciate such an argument. So what is the US government’s plan to stop Iran from pumping more oil to make up for discounts?
What it comes down to is an embargo without a blockade is worthless in the case of a vital commodity like oil. We have to give a mea culpa to Scott because without explaining this point, we jumped to the assumption the US was going to do a blockade, and of course there is no sign the US is going to do that. So here we are again, with the “Talk Talk You Worry Me To Death” syndrome.

What exactly are we trying to pressure Iran to do?

Why, to terminate its N-weapons program, of course Great. So our strategy is to squeeze Iran till it tamely stops its N-weapons program. If there is anyone in the Administration who seriously thinks this strategy has the slightest chance of success, Editor did them a favor and called St. Elizabeth’s hospital in DC, and yes, Room 221 is indeed vacant, because they need to be in a straitjacket in the looney-bin where they can’t harm anyone. Or themselves.
Why on earth would Iran give up the one chance it has to stop the US from Saddaming it? [In the American tradition of inventing new verbs, Editor gives you his creation.]
At which point the inner-inner-inner circle in Washington goes “Chuckle, chuckle, chuckle, OF COURSE we don’t expect Iran to give up its N-weapons, but we have to APPEAR to have tried everything before we whack them.
Here we beg to differ This “international consensus” the US sees necessary to build before attacking Iran will never be built. Outside of the anti-Shia Arab states and the West, no other countries will agree that whacking Iran is justified unless Iran does an act of war. It does not matter if the US has some scrap of paper giving it the authority to attack. It had pieces of paper in 2001 Afghanistan and 2003 Iraq. And you know what? The whole rest of the world hates the US for what it did.
“Better to be feared than loved” Machiavelli might have said. US should remember that. Old Machi also said if you have to do something bad, do it all at once and people will forget what happened. Don’t draw it out like Chinese torture which is what the US is doing right now. The longer the US takes to do the deed, the worse it will work out.

So are we saying “Darn the torpedoes, full speed ahead”?

No. A little bit of subtlety does not hurt. Help Israel to attack the Iranian N-program while all the time saying: “No, don’t do that”. Plausible deniability. The countries who normally would be expected to retaliate against Israel for an attack on an Arab nation will silently cheer. In any case, the Iranians are not Arabs, as they never tire of telling you. Teheran has been busy trying to subvert several anti-Israel countries, as far as they are concerned, what Israel does is payback.
Iran will surely retaliate against Hormuz if Israel attacks. Then we have every legitimate right to attack.
At which point the inner-inner-inner circle in Washington goes “Chuckle, chuckle, chuckle, OF COURSE that’s what we’re already doing, dimwit.”
So you are. But we still say “Just do it now.” Why? It’s a matter of aesthetics and disrespect.

Aesthetics and disrespect?

Aesthetics Editor is just plain tired of seeing one Unshaven One after another disrespecting US military power on TV. Unshaven Ones need to be shown off, as the Brits so nicely put it.
Respect The point of power is not to have to use it. The longer these twerps go on disrespecting American military power, the more likely we’re going to have to go all-out against someone else as well. Remember Somalia and Bin Laden. Smack them now, and good, and for the next twenty years people will think long and hard before taking on the US.
Everyone has their limit Editor’s was reached when the Iranian filmed CVN-74 transiting Hormuz and wildly boasting they knew how to keep track of US warships, implying the US Navy can be attacked at Iran’s will.
Okay, minor point of international law In peacetime, you cannot stop someone from tailing a US warship. Soviets used to do it all the time. And all the time, as the US warships got into open water, they shook the tail. The video might even have been taken from one of the Iranian islands using a telephoto lens. You can put ten torpedoes or cruise missiles into an American carrier and you won’t even slow it down unless you make a very lucky shot and cripple a propeller shaft. [Normal Polmar once pointed out to the Editor there is one scenario under which you could hurt a US carrier: if a cruise happens to get through an open elevator and into the hanger, there’s going to be a big problem. Carrier won’t sink or slow down, but it won’t be doing any fighting for a while.] These babies were designed to slug it out with the Soviets. They can take a lot of damage. And no guess what happens to Iran if it does hit a US carrier. As the man says “It’s crying time again”. That’s if in wartime they can even see a carrier. 100% assurance: they won’t. The carriers will not enter the Gulf till its been sanitized
As far as Editor is concerned the Iranians are free to disrespect American politicians. Heck, even Americans disrespect American politicians. But disrespect a US capital ship? No sir. The Unshaven Ones have to pay for this. They have to be defeated, captured, put on trial, and sentenced to – a barber chair. That’ll make America’s enemies think twice.

0230 GMT December 30, 2011

China, again This is the second time in the week we’re commenting on China. The occasion is the Chinese have tested a train that hits 500-kmph. That’s the whole train, not just the engine, and it isn’t Maglev either.
So of late the Chinese high-speed rail program has run into setbacks. Prices are very high, rendering many of the lines economic busts, and then there was an accident which killed 40-people.
In the various blogs we skim, there is considerable schadenfreude, an unseemly glee in the misfortunes of the Chinese.
So, as we explained in the last post, Editor is no fan of China. Truthfully, Editor’s entire 21 years (this time around) in America has been a slow-mo humiliation as the Chinese have pulled ahead and we’ve fallen behind. Editor is always happy to let the Chinese have a reverse raspberry or two. [A reverse raspberry is not produced by the lips, in case you wondered.] If Editor was to wake up tomorrow, and be told that China has vanished into an alternate universe, Editor would be highly pleased with life. Editor has no time for Chinese geopolitics, Chinese economics, Chinese culture, Chinese history or anything Chinese.
But we’d like to ask Americans something. What have WE done lately in transportation engineering that we should feel superior to China? A very small example. Extending the Washington Metro to Dulles IAP is an 8-year project, and there’s no assurance when it will be finished. America is so broke that we cannot afford an underground station at Dulles: it will cost $100-million more than an above ground station. To any European, an above ground station is déclassé, not to say about it running the lines of Saarinen’s famous design. And how is the extension to be paid for? By driving up the tolls on the Dulles Toll Road, used by commuters, to insane levels. The Dulles Toll Road drivers may well wonder what they have done to deserve the huge increase in tolls because the Metro has nothing to do with them.
But forget the extension. We can’t even keep Metro running in the capital of the Free World. The entire system, which honestly was the best in the world when it was built in the 1980s to early 2000s, is falling apart. The escalators would be an international joke on the Borat scale, if the world actually was interested in what happens in America today. Luckily, the world could care less. Trains break down every single day. You cannot count of Metro to get you where you need to go without providing so much reserve time that if your meeting is urgent, you cannot risk it. The interior of the cars reminds of Dickesian England, they are so shabby. As for dirt and lack of cleanliness, you want clean, please go play in a pig sty. And please don’t even think of getting on a train in rush hour in the Washington DC part of the system, unless you’ve brought your pepper spray, the trains are so crowded.
Every now and then we will have a genius citizen writing in to the newspapers: “What has the extension got to do with me? Let those who use it pay for it.” Right. So next time your street needs paving, are you going to pay for it? On this basis, why should the residents of Maryland state and Montgomery County, Maryland pay for the schools in Editor’s city, Takoma Park? And why should the citizens of Montgomery County pay for the ambulance service that zips them to the hospital? You wanna get your life saved by the ambulance, YOU pay for it. And why should the good people of Dewitt, Iowa (Editor’s spiritual home) pay for the US Navy? Let those who directly benefit pay for the Navy.
The concept that underpins a civilized society, that we all pool in for services even if we don’t directly benefit from some, is becoming as strange as the notion of sharing his food with homeless rays in Delhi would seem to your dog.
Back to the Chinese Their trains will fill up as their people get richer. They’ll have a train network for the 21^st Century. What will we have that we can be proud of? That our backsides have grown by another average 5-cm?
When people are losing out in a competition, they should be working harder to compete. Not standing around making fun of the guy who is winning and insisting it isn’t important that we compete. Aesop had a phrase for it: Sour Grapes. That is a very familiar American condition today.
Oil Pipelines bypassing Hormuz There are two pipelines of consequence. One is the Saudi Yanbu pipeline, 5.1-million bbl/day theoretical and 5-million bbl/day tested. Then there is the Oman pipeline, 2.5-million bbl/day, specifically built to bypass Hormuz. About 17-million-bbl/day go through Hormuz.
The West and Gulf oil producers have been aware of this problem for some time, which is why new pipelines are under construction, including one through Yemen and one from Ras Tunura to where exactly we haven’t been able to figure out.
Oddly, Google doesn’t respond well when you type in “Pipelines bypassing Hormuz” and any one of dozens of variants, which is why our ignorance of the current pipeline situation is abysmal.
Sure, we could find out, but we’re racing to finish up Concise World Armies 2012 and even half-an-hour is hard to spare.This is what we’ve found so far – and it sure would be great, readers, if someone would look into this.
(a) The Iraq-Saudi pipeline to the Red Seas (1.7-million-bbl/day) has been sitting them. Unless someone has been quietly working on it, it’s unusable. Now Baghdad and Tehran are all kissy faces, but Baghdad will suffer badly if Hormuz is closed. After the 1008 crisis, it would seem logical someone is working on it, but is there any evidence?
(b) The Yanbu pipeline can be jumped to 8-million-bbl/day with much work. You have to mix in a chemical that reduces the turbulence inside the pipe generated by oil flow, this adds a dollar or two to a barrel. And you have to get in bigger pumps. Then Yanbu line can do 8-million-bbl/day. Again, it would seem logical someone is working on this, but in the brief time we’ve researched, we don’t see anything.
Put all this together, and you get 12.5-million-bbl/day. That’s still 5-million short, but the world can live with that shortage for a few months.
Now, we know the Iranians have threatened to attack the Oman pipeline if necessary. Fair enough. Oman will simply go to the UN to complain of aggression; UN will take 6-hours to authorize a US-led force against Iran, and whatever else happens, its bye-bye Mullah Regime.
We also suspect little has been done about alternate routes because Iran cannot keep Hormuz closed for more than a few weeks. But if someone was asking us, we’d have to say: look, the alternates cost a few billion dollars at most. Sure Hormuz will reopen within weeks. But isn’t it a good idea to have insurance?
Now, we’re not going to get into the mechanics of keeping Hormuz open, or of reopening it should it be shut. But we’d like to give a word of advice to Debka.com.
Please stop getting excited every time there’s a couple of three US carriers in the region. That is NO indicator of imminent hostilities. If Debka had understood this, it could have saved itself from becoming a laughing stock because of its repeated insistence that an attack on Iran was imminent.
What you should look for, people, is a movement of USAF fighter wings to the Gulf region. If those wings start flying in, THEN you expect war.

0230 GMT December 29, 2011

Iran has every legal right to close Hormuz if an oil embargo is imposed. Oil is Iran’s economic lifeblood, stopping Iran from exporting oil is tantamount to economic strangulation, which is cause for war, which is cause for retaliation as possible, QED, Ergo, Ipso Facto, A Priori, Sui Generis, and Per Diem, closing Hormuz is permissible.
After getting that straight, we also need to get straight that closing Hormuz is equally an act of war. So we have a right to whack Iran for closing Hormuz.
Our personal request to President Obama: Can you kindly justify your existence by doing something useful, i.e., whacking Iran? Thank you. You will get Editor’s vote (virtual vote as Editor can’t vote, but then, as they say, it’s the thought that counts).
US SF Troops in Uganda, Central African Republic, and South Sudan as preparations are underway to terminate the head of the Lord’s Resistance Army.
There is no limit to the stupidity of some US commentators. In October Glen Beck defended the LRA, accusing the US President of targeting Christians. The LRA is Christian in the same way that a pool-full of starved piranhas are God’s creatures. Technically piranhas are indeed God’s creature, but you sure wouldn’t want to get into the pool with them/
The atrocities of the LRA are too grisly to relate here, so let’s confine ourselves to one LRA ritual. When it needs fresh recruits, it attacks a village. Children are made to kill their siblings and their parents. If they refuse, they are deemed unsuitable and killed. Those who comply are forcibly conscripted. Any attempt to escape means death.
That Glen wants to defend this organization shows he is well overdue on being retired to the Funny Farm.
Quite oddly, Glen doesn’t seem to have anything to say about the very sad situation of Iraqi Christians, who have been the victims of ethnic cleansing after the US arrived. Americans and their government are so messed up in the head that we consider it noble to prevent the killing of Sunnis, but don’t give a hang about our own co-religionists.
Oh wait: isn’t there a 1992 Supreme Court ruling that says the larger a class of religionists, the less protection they are entitled to? So since this is a Christian majority country by far, we suppose the rights of Iraqi Sunnis are much greater than those of Iraqi Christians.
Sorry if this doesn’t make sense, people. But it’s your Supreme Court that made this ruling. And you’re the ones who don’t say anything about the persecution of Christians in Muslim nations. Or is Editor being unforgivably anti-multicultural when he makes such statements? Americans are so enlightened, so fair, so kind, so generous, that they weep about other religions. Their own doesn’t count. It’s still not clear to Editor why so many Americans hate themselves and their country so much. If they feel America is such a cancer on the face of the earth, and they need to make restitution, can they please migrate to Saudi Arabia or kill themselves quietly? Why are the rest of us being tortured?
Let’s hear it for over-engineering editor is a big opponent of over-engineering in weapons systems, because a weapon is no good if it’s too expensive to afford or too expensive to lose. But there is something to be said for over-engineering in fields like space exploration. Cases in point: the Voyager probes, now about to enter true interstellar-space, as they prepare to leave the heliosphere, and of course the Mars rovers.
Launched in 1977, Voyager I and 2 were supposed to image Jupiter and Saturn, but they went on to image Neptune, Uranus, and Pluto, and are now about 18-billion kilometers from earth, and humming along getting further by 3.3 AU/year. The remarkable thing is they are still sending data, almost thirty years or so after they should have done their thing. And they have power sufficient to transmit till 2025.
Spirit Mars Rover functioned for twenty-times a long as designed before going four-paws up in 2010. Its twin, Opportunity, has lasted thirty-times longer and is still zapping along.
But we nonetheless oppose the big, ultra-expensive explorer missions because too much is at stake, and the things that can go wrong are many. Either we need to double our space exploration budget, or we need to make explorers half as expensive so that each mission has a backup.
To those who say: don’t we have enough needs at home? We have a simple reply. Ever occur to anyone that one reason Americans are going slowly insane is because there’s no more frontier? Up to 1880 an American who didn’t like the way things were could pick up and move elsewhere. For 130 years we haven’t been able to do that. But by nature we are different from – say – the Europeans. We are absolutists, and believe compromise is selling out. So since we cannot compromise and be happy, nor can we move away, we are gnawing at our own hind legs. This behavior is neurotic and destructive.
Okay, you say, so if were to colonize the Moon and Mars and the Jupiter/Saturn moons, how many people are we talking about in a 100 years? A hundred thousand? How is that going to help?
Well, you have to make a start somewhere. The Lief Ericksons and their equivalent among the Siberians and the Polynesians probably numbered in the thousands. It wasn’t till centuries later that large-scale emigration from Europe, at least, became possible. But if we sit around saying what’s the point, we’ll never get started.
As for other planets, here’s a simple calculation. Say a planet is 600 light years away and our colony ship (for generation ship as the sci-fi writers call it) can make it up to a sustained one-tenth light speed. That’s only six thousand year without relativistic effects. A few years of slow-mo acceleration can get a ship to 1/10^th light.
Only six thousand years you say? Okay, if that seems too long for you, accelerating at one gee for a year puts you close to light speed and then relativistic effects kick in big time. Travel for 10 years at 1 gee than slow down for 10 years at one g, you can visit the center of the galaxy 30,000-light-years away. Of course, 60,000 years has passed on earth http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/47/science-math-philosophy/how-much-time-passes-earth-if-you-accelerate-1g-1033481/
This will give new meaning to the cliché “you can’t go back home again”.
But, you will say, how can we possibly build ships that can accelerate/decelerate for 20 years? Not saying it can be done tomorrow. But look, 100 years ago we could not fly. 200 years before that we didn’t have steam engines.
We can do it.

0230 GMT December 28, 2011

China debt – a slightly more detailed explanation Occurred to us we need to better explain what we meant that China’s ability to clean up its debt is greater than ours. Not that ours is a free market economy, but China’s economy is state capitalism. So say Enterprise XYZ has taken on too much debt and can’t pay it back. In the US that means bankruptcy, baby, and the bank has lost its money. You have a whole bunch of XYZ companies, and in the US the banks get freaked, so they start lowering limits and refusing to make loans. Bam, you have a liquidity crisis.
Well, back in the land of the Red Dragon, when XYZ Enterprises can’t pay back its debt, if the solvency of XYZ is important to the state, the Chinese Government just tells the bank to restructure the debt. The economics of the deal count for zero, the politics count for 100%.
But, you say, that means the Chinese Government takes the loss, which is to say the Chinese taxpayer. That’s not good. Good or not, the resources of the Chinese people are the government’s to deploy. China is not a democracy; the government is accountable to no one but itself.
Chinese government has other tools at its disposal, which it uses all the time. Among these tools is to tell ABC Enterprise, which is doing well, to take over XYZ, and that’s the end of the XYZ problem.
Now, obviously we are simplifying. Government of China cannot, or at any rate will not, bail out every single land deal that is now in trouble: 123 Corporation has borrowed, say Yuan 100-million to put up an office tower on the assumption it will get more-and-more thousand yuan per square foot; the market is overbuilt, it crashes, and now that property is worth less-and-less yuan, so the developer can’t pay the bank back. Government – central, provincial, local – may or may not bail out every developer and bank. But China will not under any conditions let a liquidity crisis set in.
That’s all there is to it, nothing complicated. In Beijing they don’t have debates about Hayek and Keynes, about big government versus small government, about transparency, about how parliament is going to react, whatever. They do what’s necessary to keep the show on the road and the band playing.
So there was lot of criticism of US and ROK intelligence for not knowing till 48 hours that the Child of White Swans was dead. We avoided saying anything – hey, even we can’t comment on every stupid allegation the media and its half-educated sources make.
It’s quite clear to us that Americans, at least, have seen too many Tom Cruise movies and are actually quite weak on how intelligence works.
That America or ROK doesn’t have an agent inside the very innermost circle of DPRK regime should not be a surprise. That’s not a failure, that’s just reality. So the way we generally find out things DPRK doesn’t want anyone to find out is (a) signal intercept; or (b) reconnaissance. Over the longer term there are all kinds of signs, such as – say – Kim II didn’t appear at such-and-such ceremony which he always attends, stuff like that.
Well, one reason no one picked up the story of Kim the second dying on a train while travelling the country ministering to the needs of his people who loved him so much is that he did not die on a train. The head of ROK intelligence says the said train did not move from its siding in Pyongyang, Kim was at home and has to have died at home.
If he died at home, the information could be kept to a small handful of people. Sure, servants and guards and gardeners might know, but in case Americans haven’t noticed, it’s kind of unlikely one of these people will tip-toe over to a telephone and call Washington or Seoul and let us know the old boy is dead.
DPRK couldn’t have kept the matter secret for long, because invariably someone talks – if only because the succession jockeying begins. But 48 hours? Sure, that’s entirely possible.
Newt is at it again He has been telling people that he is the senior-most lecturer to the senior military so he knows defense. Hmmmm. Turns out a couple of times a year he gets invited to talk at some defense college or the other, where he lecturers to one and two star types, and he has been doing this for 23 years.
We dare say that any of a hundred American military professors get in more by way of lectures in a year than Newts has in 23 years, but you don’t hear them touting themselves as the senior-most anything.
Next, is Newt is talking, Newt is not listening. Since his expertise is talking, where exactly is he picking up his alleged defense expertise from? And a historian is a defense expert? Since when? In what universe?
If he is a defense expert, may we ask what is NOT an expert on? According to Newt, he’s an expert on everything. That automatically makes him an expert on nothing.
The man cannot even think two steps ahead. In 2006 he thought Romney’s health care for Massachusetts was the greatest thing since sliced bread. Now he says he’s changed his mind because he’s had a chance to see how it works in practice. So this Giant Intellect could not look ahead at Romney’s plans and see how they would play out?
So should he become Prez, do we wait every day for his latest brainstorm, so that you have a non-stop sequence of “Lets do this – oopsies, that didn’t work – let’s try that – oopsies, that didn’t work”
Are Americans mad that this man is even considered a serious candidate to become president?
By the way, this was Newt’s idea for pension/social security reform. Some of your money would go into government-approved funds. Some you could invest as you wanted. Didn’t do well on your investments? Not to worry. Treasury will send you a check to bring your payment up to par.
Readers, please tell us: what do you call a man that seriously suggests individuals gamble and the government will indemnify them against losses or lower than anticipated returns? Some GOP voters apparently call him a Presidential contender. We call him a raving idiot. But then what do we know, we’re from Iowa.
Letter to the Editor Please apologize immediately to Mr. Newton Gingrich. Ad hominum attacks are impermissible in civilized debate. Besides, their use shows you have no proper refutation of Mr. Gingrich’s ideas.
Letter from Editor to Newts Dear Newts, I am sorry I called you a raving idiot. The raving idiot is obviously me, for having wasted 22 lines refuting your inane ideas. Thank you.

0230 GMT December 27, 2011

Problems building up in China economy? So it would seem from the media reports. Now, Editor is no fan of China, nor is much informed about China’s economy which doesn’t seem to operate according to normal economic rules. But Editor doubts China is in as much trouble as is being made out.
Beijing itself announced that the days of double-digit growth are over. Okay, so big deal. After 30 years the growth had to slow. So China won’t grow at 9% a year, which doubles GDP in eight years. Say it grows at 6%. FDP doubles in 12, and surely China can sustain 6% for 25 years, or till it has a GDP of $30-trillion. It will be number one in the world. So Editor suggests those of us who don’t like China refrain from any celebrations that Chinese growth is slowing.
So we are told China has figured out it can’t employ its surplus labor all in manufacturing. This is supposed to be a setback? China already has ten percent of the world’s manufacturing; in a couple of years US will be down to 10%. Chinese manufacturing is still growing, it will be first in the world soon. This is supposed to be an economic crisis?
Then, it is said China has a property bubble that is going to burst and that will create woe and lamentation in the land. Editor is deeply pained to have to say this, people, but didn’t the US just go through a huge, huge property bubble which will take us till 2020 to work through? The point is there are 1.4-billion Chinese going on 1.5-billion, and well over half live in hovels. Demand will rapidly catch up with the supply. Editor would not break out the champagne on this point.
Okay, so the Chinese are supposed to have a whole bunch of bad debt. Why on earth would an American, or an Englishman, or a Euro get excited about this? We in the west should know a thing or two about bad debt. And China’s ability to clean up its debt is a lot greater than ours.
The thing is, like it or not, the Chinese central planners seem to know a thing or two about economics. Their 30 year record is unmatched in all of human history. China is a totalitarian country and it can turn on a dime by fiat. Editor suggests we not start judging the Chinese ability to handle their economic problems by assuming they are as incompetent as we are.
Using tactical A-Bombs in the invasion of Japan Reader Richard Thatcher reminds us that one of the plans was to use nine A-bombs just ahead of the Forward Line of Own Troops (no clue what they called it in those days), against intermediate depth targets, and against depth targets. The lack of information on the radiation aspects of these weapons was so great that US troops were not to enter bombed areas for 48-hours. Indeed, Mr. Thatcher also reminded us about the 1957 test series where US staged 29 tests in 5-months or so, and had tens of thousands of troops as observers, sitting right there without shielding. So people weren’t very clear on radiation effects even 12 years after the war.
A George Mason University history site says that 300,000 US military personnel were exposed to radiation. At http://historymatters.gmu.edu/d/6451/ you can read the memoir of one officer who with 5000 men was position 11-kilometers from an air-dropped explosion. Then everyone got into their trucks and rumbled up to the explosion area. Whereupon everyone got out and walked through the area. As the officer says, no one died and no one got sick.
Yoicks. Of course, now a days we are way, way too scared of radiation. You had a problem in Japan, a couple of workers may have died from radiation, and doubtless there will be extra deaths from cancer than might otherwise have been expected. Wunner how many of those Japanese are going to stop smoking, drinking, driving in cars, flying, eating red meat and insisting coal fired power plants be shut down. To say nothing of demanding the elimination of the maybe 50,000 chemicals that cause cancer. Because sure as anything, a whacking greater boat load of Japanese are going to die from these causes than from the extra radiation thrown out at the disaster site.
But back to the A-bombs and Japan. Had the Japanese been disinclined to surrender after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the use of nine bombs – or even twenty – against troop areas would not have defeated them. A-bombs are great stuff against fixed unprotected targets like a city. Against dug in troops, the blast and fire effects are very greatly reduced.
And parenthetically we say to our Green friends: you don’t like coal, you don’t like oil, you don’t like hydro, you’re starting to have problems with windmills, yet you also are not prepared to go back to the year of Our Lord 1850. Don’t blame you, neither do we.
So what’s the solution? Well, passive nuclear reactors. The ones that shut down by themselves should anything go wrong, and so require no human intervention. Extra safety can be obtained by burying them. Yep, your power is going to be expensive because nothing is as cheap as coal and oil, and safety costs money. But really, truly, environmentally N-power is better for us.
And Greenies – can you also start agitating about the population thing? The earth is polluted not because we use coal and oil or whatever. Its polluted because we have too many people. Cut back the global population to 100-million, and most of your pollution problems will be resolved.
And thanks to reader Chris Raggio for keeping us informed on the Lulzsec (are we saying it right?) attack on Stratfor. As far as we know, Stratfor is about as harmless an organization as you can get. The attack, according to the hackers, was to steal money and buy Christmas gifts. Also, their “comrade” Bradley Manning is spending his Joyous Season in military jail, and they didn’t think it right that Stratfor clients be enjoying their Christmas.
We’re going to say something that may seem outrageous. On one level we sympathize with the hackers. Truly, who amongst us would not just love the chance to stick it to The Man?
But the difference between grownups (or at least purported grownups) and those sticking it to The Man is that grownups restrain themselves. What the hackers are doing is plain theft. How would they like it if others, who lack computers and other nice gadgets the hackers might have, bonk them over the head with a baseball bat and steal their stuff?
As for Bradley Manning suffering all alone, not to worry, good buddies. Sitting at a computer you really do believe you are anonymous, don’t you. You have no idea, not the least idea, of the massive power of the modern state. You too will be suffering soon enough. That will show your solidarity.
Mr. Raggio sent an article where this lady who knew some hackers was visited by eight FBI agents. Now try and imagine this. There you are, peacefully reading the comics while taking a satisfying dump, and you are interrupted by eight – eight – FBI agents. They want to know what you know. You sing. Treble, Alto, Tenor, Bass, and several other frequencies you never thought you could reach, but you easily do. Because at any point those FBI agents can take you away for interrogation at their offices. They will find out about the 2-cent stamp you took from office without paying. They will nail you for it.
And just BTW, children, Manning has it very easy in military jail. He is not getting beat-up, he is not getting sexually assaulted, his face is not being rubbed in poop, he is not getting casually clubbed on the knees every time a guard passes because they don’t like him. If you didn’t know this happens to you in civil jail, those kind FBI agents will make a point to tell you.
It doesn’t matter how tough you are, you’ll talk. You’ll give up names. They will quietly investigate for months. Then they will move in. They will quickly break all those names – you all are kids, after all.
And which big-time lawyer will come defend you for free? See, Manning stole documents. He didn’t steal money. Oooooh, The Man hates it when you steal his money. And it won’t be just theft charges. Racketeering and conspiracy will be there.
So you think: we’re hundreds, we’re thousands. How can they get us all? The Man will simply hire 10,000 more computer cops. If need be he’ll hire 100,000 more. And he won’t have to get you all. He’ll have to get just one. The five who know that one will be lying awake waiting for The Man. They will get two of the five. Then ten people will be lying awake. They will get four of the ten. And so on until you will get down on your knees and pray so hard that you will be a good boy that the neighbors will be banging on the walls asking you to be quiet.
None of this is to divert from the point Mr. Raggio made. Stratfor didn’t even bother encrypting its credit card transactions. Ultimately, Mr. Raggio notes, organizations have to get more serious about computer security. After all, you don’t leave your house unlocked, or your car, or lay out your credit cards on the curb and leave for work.

30 GMT December 26, 2011

There’s a lot happening around the world, but nothing that requires a shout-out or a rant

Egypt The Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafis have won Round Two (of three rounds) in Egypt’s multi-step election, 67%. In general, there is not much to fear from the Brotherhood. Okay, so they are conservatives, but they are not stark raving homicidal crazies like the Salafis who want to take the world back to the social norms prevalent in the 8^th Century while enjoying – of course – the material benefits of the 21^st Century.
To keep in mind: the Egypt election is only intended to elect a constituent assembly. The whole thing is meaningless, because the Army has said it will not even allow power to be snatched from its cold, dead hands. So the poor Egyptians have to go through a second revolution, which could be a bloody affair unless the US steps in. Also to keep in mind: a majority of Egyptians is happy Dictator Muburak is gone, but is highly freaked at the continuing instability and it is likely the majority does NOT support the Second Revolutionaries, if we can term that.
Belarus Which takes us to Belarus, which is being taken back to Stalin era totalitarianism with all the ultra-hard-ball repression of dissent for which Stalin was famous. The reason Belarus’s leaders are getting away it is because much of the population fears the anarchy that democracy brings, at least until people become used to democracy. Belarus is part of Putin project to recreate the core of the Soviet Empire; the other partner is Kazakhstan. You don’t hear a lot of bad things about Kazakhstan because of one word: hydrocarbons.
Which takes us to Russia Do not be impressed by the protests. Putin can quash them in an instant. He is allowing them because he can smilingly turn to the west and say: “Wot, me a dictator?” Do not be impressed a Russian billionaire has said he will run against Putin. The fellow is Putin’s man, allowing Putin to say: “Wot, me a dictator?”
The protesters are the urban elite. Your typical Rus is very, very big on stability and certainty. See, to you and I the Soviet Union was a dark dictatorship. But as long as you refrained from openly attacking the regime, you were left alone. There was little crime, because the cops were everywhere, and they didn’t have to read you your rights. To this day Russian courts convict 99% of accused. You had a tiny little apartment, but you paid just a couple of dollars a month in rent. Medical care wasn’t wonderful, but it was free. Education was free, and if you had the smarts, you got into elite schools and universities – free. Okay, so the diet was monotonous, but the basics like bread were very cheap. Public transport was a few cents, and in Moscow the idea of running to catch a bus would have been considered nuts, because if you missed one bus, in a few minutes the next one came along. Yes, you didn’t get to buy scotch, but the vodka was absurdly cheap. You had no political freedom, but the state looked after you.
Now all that is gone, and your average Russian is just as worried about making do as your average American. And all around him you have the Russian 1% who have millions, hundreds of millions, and billions of bucks, fast cars, beautiful women, children studying in Paris and Washington, private bodyguards, and if you don’t get out of their way on the roads, they will simply push you off, and if you are dead or crippled, tough.
Sure there was corruption in the Soviet Union. But that was if you wanted something extra, like fresh oranges in a Moscow February. If you obeyed the law, kept your head down, and didn’t publically grumble, the corruption didn’t affect you. Right now to even get your due you have to pay.
We’re sure our readers appreciate we are not defending Soviet Russia, which really was a creation of Satan at his best. We’re just saying do not mirror image Russia. Of course as human being they want the same rights you and I enjoy. But a lot of Russians want to know what use are those political rights when there is no safety in the streets, life very harsh if you are an ordinary Joe, and meantime around you is all the excess, the pomp, the wealth, the power of the Russian nobility during the time of the Czars.
From Moscow we amble over to Damascus where President Assad has tears in his eyes after the bombing of two intelligence agency buildings in Damascus. Tears of joy, that is. “See?” he declaims “I told you this was a bunch of terrorists, from the start. Everyone knows terrorists deserve no mercy.”
Well, let’s first take a huge leap of credibility and assume the Syrian opposition did do the deed, which to a lot of people makes no sense because the opposition has avoided traditional terror. This revolt started off as completely peaceful protests, which were brutally suppressed by the security forces. Part of the Syrian population has guns, and this part decided to shot back. Soldiers defected when told to massacre civilians, so the regime executed those soldiers. To survive, they had no choice but to fight back.
So okay, we’ll accept it’s a civil war. So what? Wasn’t Libya a civil war? Wasn’t Yemen a civil war? Go back far enough, and wasn’t the American Revolution a civil war? In terms of what the colonists were doing, were they not traitors and terrorists? There was no reason for Syria to become a civil war – no reason except Assad Bloody Hands did not want to give up power.
Assad’s days are numbered, he absolutely cannot survive because he is a minority repressing a majority. A Shia minority repressing a Sunni majority – iron or ironies, because in Iraq it was the other way around. The Gulf Sunnis have ganged up on Assad, sooner or later, its going to be goodbye to another dictator.
From Damascus we take a stroll to Iran Teheran is determined to go down fighting, and is so out of touch with brutal reality it is doing ten-day exercises on how to close Hormuz. Just the kind of behavior that assures the world they are dealing with a sane, rational power.
Last time there was a Hormuz crisis, 2008, Editor was very frustrated because people kept saying “Ooooh, we’re dead because the Iranians will close Hormuz”. Well, militarily there is no way they can close Hormuz unless they make a first strike, and it wouldn’t have stayed close for long. Our own estimate was two-weeks to three months. This time around, for some reason, the military experts are saying the closure will be days, which truthfully, if Iran makes a second strike – closure in response to an attack on Iran – is accurate. That’s because an attack on Iran will begin with sterilizing – not sanitizing – the Iran coast. Even a fishing sail-powered dhow will not be able to move.
But if things go wrong, the closure could be as we estimate, up to three months.
What will happen? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. We’ve been through the pipeline equations, and 10-million of 17-million barrels will still flow daily. Even sea-borne traffic will resume in days – the megatankers may not be able to sail, but smaller tankers will. You’ll lose a few million barrels a day for max three months, and the world has reserves to ride that out.
But won’t oil shoot up? Last time around some financial institutions was licking its chops and saying “Ooooh, oil will go up to $250”. Our response was “In your dreams, buster.” This time we were taken aback to hear Armand de Borchgrave – he’s a senior journalist – say the price will go to $300 to $500. If we are going to pull figures out of the air, why stop at $500? Why not $5,000/bbl? Why not $50,000/bbl?
Now don’t be absurd, Mr. Editor, you will say, who will pay $5,000/bbl? Precisely. Now ask yourself who will pay $500 when there’s a couple of billion barrels in global reserve, and the Straits will be reopened quickly.
The great weakness of the $500/bbl school, which is a total wet dream of speculators, is that the day Hormuz closes, government will ban forward trading in oil futures. They will take steps to ration oil in the event Hormuz remains closed for half a year or a year.
Further, there is something the economists call demand destruction. We saw that in 2008 when oil shot up to $150 and then collapsed to $80. Yes, the recession had something to do with it. But more than that, demand started going down because $150 was not justifiable under any objective factors.
Incidentally, there is a move in the US at least to ban non-actual-users from forward trading in oil. Consider for a moment: the idea of the futures market is that it matches up future supply and demand, giving certainty to the producer and the buyer. No economic purpose is served by speculation in oil – or any other commodity. Before US hedge funds, awash with trillions of dollars of pension money, decided to speculate in oil, the futures market represented reality. Right now speculators have pushed up oil $30 above what economics says it is – and at that, that’s cartel economics. (Exxon chief gave that figure some months back.)
So right now a lot of people don’t like the idea of government controls, particularly when its stopping them from ripping off your pants and mine by making us pay absurd prices for our oil. Do the speculators really think the people and the government will let them not rip off our underpants as well if Hormuz should close?
“Oooooh!” the speculators will say “Rationing never works. It creates a black market.” Hmmmm. So you know, governments have a remedy for that. They allow a certainly level of black marketeering because up to a point its too petty to cost-effectively police. Beyond that point, they simply take speculators and shoot them in the town square.
And if the speculators think “Ooooooh, this is America, that will never happen”, they need to be disabused of this fantasy. People say how you should never mess with the right of Americans to own guns because you’ll have a revolution on your hands. Well, guess what Americans love more than their guns?
You guessed right. In the absence of controls, and with full throttle speculation, gas will go up to $15/gallon. At that point the Editor will not have to shoot any speculator. The little old lady at the end of the street will do the shooting herself.
This being Takoma Park, Maryland (the Berkeley of the East) she may need to borrow someone’s gun. On the other hand, Editor has been inside her house when she needed help moving stuff. The little old lady has a kitchen knife with an 18-inch long and three-inch wide blade. Just as effective. Cheaper too. Given the cost of living, bullets are not so cheap in America anymore.
When Editor was in college, he used to bartend. At one party, even though they were grad school and grad assistant types, they’d hired the local policeman for security, as it was going to be a wild party. Editor has a vague memory of a rather tall lady arriving clad in high-heels, a fishnet body suit, and silver paint, and nothing else. The security was to stop the townies from crashing the party, grad school students were too well-behaved to fight.
Anyway, Editor had to keep making trips back to the kitchen where The Law was ensconced, downing bourbons as if prohibition was going to be declared at midnight. Solid Massachusetts man, in his early fourties. Because there was hardly any non-European immigration in those days, people thought Editor was from southern Italy or from Greece. To simplify things he used the nom de guerre “George” which is what his friends called him.
So The Law was telling Editor about his time in the wartime navy, on a destroyer in the Pacific. He proceeded to explain to the Editor how young people today had no respect for The Law.
There was this lady (not the tall one), who was intent on – er – amorous activity with two of the grad students, simultaneously, and was by the time – shall we say – rather scantily clad. Let’s just say panties were being worn, but somehow they had got transferred from the young lady to one of the young gentlemen. So doubtless you are thinking: if he’s wearing her panties, his boxers have to be on her head, obviously.
You would be wrong. His boxers were on the head of the other young gentleman, which was a bit baffling, now that Editor thinks of it. Of course, us bartenders are not paid to think.
Somehow the three ended up in the kitchen, and the young lady fell in the lap of The Law, which slowed neither her down nor slowed her admirers down. In those days we didn’t have the holler “Get a room, people” So The Law and Editor merely continued their conversation.
The three guests were – shall we just say – deep in the throes of passion, and at some point the young lady grabbed the Law’s tie for something to hold on to. The Law was being quietly strangled, as the throes of passion were – shall we say – considerable and loud. Law just kind of squinted, ignored what was happening on his lap, downed another considerable part of his bourbon, and morosely proclaimed: “I’m telling you, George, this country isn’t what it used to be.”
So the other day Editor was updating Concise World Armies and for some reason an advert for an ammo supply place came up. Editor almost passed out from shock: 30-30 Remington rounds are a dollar each. One. Dollar. A. Round. If the Government came to take away the Editor’s gun (hypothetical gun, as he can’t afford one) he could not even resist because he can’t afford to buy any ammunition. And with a straight face they call this a democracy?
Editor’s reaction was the same as that of The Law, those many decades gone. He blindly reached for his glass of bourbon, finished off half (metaphorically, as he doesn’t drink), and mournfully proclaimed to himself: ““I’m telling you, George, this country isn’t what it used to be.”

0230 GMT December 25, 2011

Dear Editor I have been wondering where you get your eclectic, eccentric, and peculiar economics. Now that you have explained you slept through your economics texts (and presumably your lectures), the reasons for your deep ignorance become perfectly clear.
In common with your fellow countrymen, you seem to have the same rabid fear of Keynes that American creationists have of Darwin. I make the analogy with intent, because only Americans are still arguing about Keynes versus Hayek. To the rest of the world, Keynesian economics is mainstream, just as for the rest of the world, Darwinism is mainstream thinking.
What Keynes said was very simple. There are business cycles. In an up-cycle, government needs to cut back on spending and raise taxes. This prevents inflation, which after all is the single greater destroyer of man’s economic labors. In a down-cycle, when private demand collapses, government must step in by reducing spending and bowing money to spend. Saying that Keynes was the guru of big government and centralized government is without foundation. Keynes did not want the government telling you how to spend your money. In good times he wanted government to contract. He saw an expanded role for government only in bad times.
In contrast to Keynes’ prescription, your government – and mine – has for decades failed to cut spending and up taxes in good times. It has used good times to expand the role of the government. This would give Keynes fits. That cutting spending and increasing taxes in bad times is suicidal is quite evident in the Eurozone which is heading into deep recession (some parts of the zone already are in deep recession) because of the quite idiotically superstitious beliefs of the Germans regarding inflation. I accept the Germans were traumatized by the inflation after World War I. But then to approach every economic situation within the paradigm of inflation is the equivalent of saying: “My marriage did not work out, not only will I never marry again, neither should anyone else marry – ever”. Inflation comes when demand exceeds production. That is not the problem today because productive capacity far exceeds demand. The danger is deflation not inflation.
Yes, I am waiting for you to say “But the American stimulus did not work.” You have said it many times, though I recognize you believe it did not work because the money was given to the banks who then refused to lend it, so demand was not stimulated. You have a point, but the reason the American stimulus did not work was that it was too little, too late. It was guaranteed to fail, indeed, the American Keynesian Paul Krugmann predicted it would fail. So if I throw a drowning man a rope three meters long when he is six meters from shore, and he drowns, do I conclude that throwing ropes to drowning men is futile?
You have frequently these last months bemoaned that the politicization of the simplest things in America is running America into the ground. I agree. But the failure of Presidents Bush and Obama to increase the stimulus is because of politics. Both were/are so deathly afraid of the Republican right wing that they would rather fail than run afoul of that august lobby.
Let me conclude with my own thoughts of why America is so politicized that is has become not just non-functional, but dysfunctional. The world in the era of globalization has become bewildering complex. The solution is greater intellectual power. America, however, prides itself on its anti-intellectualism, which is akin to boasting: “I never read a book and that makes me a superior man!”. Instead of educating themselves, keeping an open mind, an eschewing rigid doctrine, Americans are retreating further into intellectual fundamentalism. I believe Islamic fundamentalism must fail because it is fundamentalism. So must Christian fundamentalism and yes, economic fundamentalism. The Germans are suffering from the same syndrome. Be that as it may, unless Americans accept intellectualism, they are doomed to become the barbarians that destroyed the west, instead of playing the role the role that brought the country into being and making it great. And America became great because of its intellectual ideas, so powerful they have become the truth for all humankind – at a time America rejects intellectualism.
Editor’s response Che. Here is it is Saturday, Christmas Eve, not a date in sight, and this reader by the unlikely name of E. Edward Edwardes is stomping your Editor, who can’t defend himself just because decades ago he fell asleep in his economics classes. With a name like that, Editor suspects the letter writer is English. We thought the English were a sporting race, believing in giving a man a second chance, and not holding youthful sins and omissions against a person for forever. Or is that the Americans? Older the Editor gets, the more confused he becomes.

The annotated nightly briefing from Reader Luxembourg

Luxembourg resides in Chicago, which he calls “My L’il Cesspool”. He sends a nightly collection of the days absurd stories. So for Christmas we thought we would forward his Christmas Eve briefing.
In Iraq this year I asked an Iraqi military officer doing joint training at an American base what was the big thing he’d come to believe about Americans in the years they’d been there. He thought. “You are a better people than your movies say.” He had judged us by our exports. He had seen the low slag heap of our culture and assumed it was a true expression of who we are.
And so he’d assumed we were disgusting.
Thomas Friedman Was Unavailable For Comment: “The Xinjiang Procedure: Beijing’s ‘New Frontier’ is ground zero for the organ harvesting of political prisoners.” http://www.weeklystandard.com/print/articles/xinjiang-procedure_610145.html Funny how people who were outraged beyond outrage by the Abu Ghraib pics don’t care much about this.
Sign Of The Times: A Frankincense Shortage. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204552304577116741588910380.html
Have a Sno-cone and enjoy the show: snow-cone machines for homeland security. “when you give out money based on politics, without any accounting, this is what you get.”

http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2011/12/snow_cone_machi.html

Change: Annual fuel budget for U.S. families this year? Over $4,000. “Been wondering where a bunch of your money went this year? For the average American family, a higher percentage of the budget was spent on gas in 2011 than at any point since 1981. According to the AP, gas cost most Americans $4,155, or 8.4 percent of the median household income, in 2011. In 1981, the number was 8.8 percent. In the 2000s, a normal number was around 5.7 percent. The culprit, as should not be a surprise, was $3.50-a-gallon gas in a sluggish economy.” http://green.autoblog.com/2011/12/23/annual-fuel-budget-for-u-s-families-this-year-over-4-000/
Unless, Of Course, It’s A Brilliant Piece Of Misdirection: How Downed U.S. Drone Helps China. http://the-diplomat.com/2011/12/24/how-downed-u-s-drone-helps-china/
My Lil Cesspool ...you know. CHICAGOLAND: Christmas Brings Rampant Thefts Of Baby Jesus Statues, Lawn Decorations... http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2011/12/23/christmas-brings-thefts-of-baby-jesus-statues-lawn-decorations/
Editor’s comment Editor thought he was being very clever when he planned to suggest that anyone wanting to put up a religious display in public spaces be permitted to do son. The every religion could express their holy days. Well, apparently in Leesberg, Virginia they’ve had this policy since 2009. So atheists have this year grabbed most of the 10 spaces. One of their displays is a skeleton dressed as Santa Claus. The story is from NPR http://www.npr.org/2011/12/24/144151483/secular-opponents-of-holiday-displays-get-creative and like good liberals, NPR clearly believes that passing a moral judgment is a crime so the story is actually quite sympathetic to the display-site-hoggers.
Let us first say that Editor believes in public subsidies for the arts and he is for government funding of NPR. So Editor is not bashing NPR. Editor is merely reminding readers of what Patrick Moynihan called “defining deviancy down”. Moynihan was a larger-than-life liberal in the old style, but he said that there are consequences to continually downgrading what society considers deviant behavior (see Luxembourg’s story about the Iraqi officer, first paragraph).
Second, so you are an atheist, is there some law that says you have to prove you are uneducated? What does Santa Claus have to do with religion? Saint Nick’s is a tradition celebrated around Christmas. But Santa is 100% secular. Have you ever heard Santa utter the words “God” or “Jesus”? Sure he talks about Christmas, but it’s about the celebration of Christmas as a secular holiday, not as an occasion to worship the deity. NPR just shows its own confusion when it titles its story: “Secular opponents of holiday displays get creative”. So these people are objecting to holiday displays and not religious displays?
A huge part of Santa Claus is about the kids. So it’s really, really thoughtful of some people to be putting a Santa suit on a skeleton and exhibiting it in a public space. It shows how terribly clever, how amazingly sophisticated, these people, what a fantastic sense of humor they have, what genius irony they can exhibit.
Editor likes to think he is an intellectual. When he hears stories like this, he’s not sure if Americans are wrong to reject intellectualism, even if they do it for incorrect reasons.
See, if Editor were not an intellectual, he could speak his mind about these people. He could say: “A skeleton Santa is ‘getting creative’?” What a sick bunch of deviant perverts.” And by that Editor also means NPR.
[For the record, Editor does not celebrate Christmas because Christ is the last person on anyone’s mind. When the youngest was little, Mrs. R. IV would put up a 2-foot plastic tree made in Hong Kong (this is before everything was made in China) and she’d put the presents for the youngster around the tree. Not a word said about Christ. Editor once made the mistake of taking the family to a Midnight Mass at a Catholic church, just something that should be experienced once, after all, one reads about the midnight mass all the time. Big mistake. The congregation was mainly dressed in sweats. Talked through the service. Chewed gum. Kids ran around screaming. People changed seats to catch up on gossip with friends they hadn’t seen in a while. Other people napped. Went outside to smoke and use the cell phone. Hopefully not to have a holiday nip. Another sick bunch of deviant perverts.]

0230 GMT December 24, 2011

Letter to Editor regarding rant on Christmas without Christ From Robert Griffin. I suspect Editor has gotten two separate things mixed up. First, what most non-Christians will be objecting to is the display of Christian symbols on government property. The Establishment Clause is generally interpretation by courts to mean that government in no way should support any religion. The White House is home to a person who is President of all Americans, not just to Christian Americans and its lawns are a public space. Second, if someone is objecting to the display of Christian symbols on private property, I will be the first one to say this is wrong.
Editor’s response According to the Third American Religious Survey http://wessner.ca/?p=388 75% of Americans identify themselves as Christians, 5% as belonging to other religions, 15% as having no religion, and 5% as refusing to answer. How does the White House Christmas Tree support Christianity? Is the White House pushing Christianity over other religions? We think not, because from what we read the White House regularly has celebrations of the holy days of other religions. We may as well argue that the official declaration of December 25^th as the Christmas Day holiday (not the Winter Holiday or whatever) is illegal.
With three of four Americans saying they are Christians, and with Christmas celebrated worldwide including in non-Christian countries, we think it’s about as close to a universal day as one can get. Sure, other cultures – like non-Christian Indians – are not celebrating it as a religious holiday. You can even argue that the power of American advertising is such that Christmas has become a global secular holiday. Certainly we may agree this business of shopping till we drop is actually offensive to the spirit of Christ, who was anti-materialistic. But Why should a non-Christian be upset because the White House Christmas Tree has Christian symbols? Isn’t America supposed to be about tolerance? When 3 of 4 Americans are Christians, why are we begrudging them symbols that are important to them?
Who precisely is objecting? Presumably the objectors are from the 5% non-Christians and 5% atheists, a pool that is 10% of the American population. How many from this pool are objecting? Is it as much as 1%? Is any purpose served by someone from the 1% getting aggressive and saying Christian symbols on public land are unacceptable? When the 75% are not harming in any way the 1%, it is (a) mean beyond belief to object; and (b) spineless beyond belief of the First Family to eliminate Christian symbols from the First Tree.
By the way, if Christian symbols are objectionable when displayed on public land, that tree had better come down. Because what symbolizes Christmas better than the tree with a star. The holiday had better be repealed.
Now let us approach this obliquely Much is being made of the Homecoming Kiss bestowed by a female naval serviceperson on her girlfriend, another female serviceperson. You have to, of course, wonder if the media so hard up for news that they have to publicize something of zero significance. One of the servicepeople is in the uniform of the United States Navy. The action takes place in a naval dockyard. By no definition whatsoever is the Homecoming Kiss a private affair. There is a solid percentage of the US population that holds same-sex relations to be immoral and an offence to God. So what would people think if someone went to the courts, saying naval personnel on duty, wearing the country’s uniform, and on government property?
If someone objects, should we not be saying: “Look, I don’t agree to this, but America is about tolerance, and I should be tolerant”?
Ditto the Christmas Tree.
This said, Editor has to make a caveat If a Jewish person objected to public displays of Christmas symbols, Editor would understand. Note we said “understand”. We did not say it is right. There is 2000 years of very bad history between Christianity and Judaism with Jews coming out – repeatedly – on the losing end. If a Jewish person tells Editor: “I get really, really freaked at seeing Christian symbols in ANY public context because I worry this may be the thin edge of the wedge. My people fled to America to save themselves from people who called themselves Christians but used the power of the State to oppress my people. I would rather the public and the private observance of Christianity be kept as separate as possible.”
Editor’s reply might be: the government of a (at the time) an overwhelmingly Christian note gave you refuge, please be gracious at least this one time of the year. You cannot blame the White House and the US president for the terrible atrocities you endured under the Nazis, the Russian pogroms, at the hands of the Spanish and so on.
Editor might also ask: “If Israel can be tolerant of Christian symbols, why can’t American Jews?
Just utterly beside the point WWJD if he passed by the White House and saw the National Christmas Tree? Editor cannot claim to be an expert on Christianity, but his suspicion is that Jesus would not approve. First, Jesus was against the establishment of a church. Secondly, he would have considered himself a failure to witness how his followers have deified him and how they worship him. Thirdly, as we said before, he would be very aggravated at the commercialism carried on in an ostensible celebration of his birth. Quite honestly, if Jesus was to go to the mall and take the skin off the back of crazed shopper using a whip, Editor for one would applaud.
As a teacher who told the Editor she is a devout Christian but does not celebrate Christmas said: “Christmas has become a circus in Christ’s name; but if Christ was to walk on to the stage and stand their quietly, he would be ignored because we are so busy doing everything except what he wanted. I will spend my Christmas considering how I can better meet the standards Christ has set me.”
Profound, moving, sincere, and – dare we say it – possibly even holy.
So, dear readers, carry on with the shopping, massive consumption of alcohol and food, enjoy killing the turkey who has done no harm – at least no turkey Editor has met has done him harm, and so on. Editor will be working at home tomorrow, like The Brain in Pinkey and the Brain doing what he does every night, plot to take over the world. Editor is not going to Grinch your Christmas, but he sure is going to do a lot of complaining and whining, but then he does that regularly, Christmas or not.
And this really is it for tonight Two souls got on Air Force One yesterday and headed out for the Presidential vacation in Hawaii. One was President Obama, the other was Bo. We sincerely wish one gets a Christmas stocking full of nice things, and the other gets a Christmas stocking full of coal. Just to help you with the puzzle, our Coal Candidate is not the soul who looks endearingly cut and walks on four legs.
Along with the coal should be a card: “We, the people, are taking away all your planes and helicopters. You can fly Sardine Class and pay for your own tickets just as we all do. As for security, are you saying the rest of us don’t have a right to be secure? Either give each of us an Air Force One, or travel like the rest of us and take your chances.”

0230 GMT December 23, 2011

Does it say in the Bible that God ordered the US Congress not to make sense? It would appear so. Cutting the payroll tax once again is messing up Social Security once again. This is – once again – pushing our problem down the road on to the back of our children. That the Boomers should do this is no surprise, given their colossal selfishness. But Congress has plenty of members who are post-Boomer. We’re counting post-Boomer as after 1960 – we think using 1964 as the cut-off date is a bit unrealistic. Surely fifteen years of breeding like rabbits sufficied to clam down the World War II generation.
One on side you have our beloved President, who has not a single real Christmas ornament on his Christmas tree and sees nothing wrong with that. We are told the White House doesn’t want to offend non-Christians. So to not offend non-Christians, Christians should make their second holiest day into a secular celebration? Okay, Editor – who is not a Christian by the way, will go for it. If and when all other religions stop celebrating their holidays so as not to offend Christians and others not of their faith. Or is the case that only Christians are capable of giving offense so only they must make their holidays secular? If a country that is vastly Christian majority cannot celebrate its holy days without minorities getting offended, then where is the justice, the tolerance, the acceptance that led non-Christians to migrate to America in the first place?
Our Prez wants to increase his chances of relection, so nothing like pandering to the people – after all, the man’s retirement is not going to be affected because there won’t be enough money in Social Security by the time we are through with this nonsense.
On the other side you have the blessed GOP, who for a moment showed some spine, wondering how the tax cut money was to be made up. Of course, they showed spine for all the wrong reasons – they give no more hoots than the President for the future of this country, they wanted to deny him an election advantage. And of course, had they insisted this tax cut be paid for, the Democrats would have said: “Interesting. When the Republicans propose tax cuts without offsetting reductions, the extra jobs created are supposed to increase the tax inflow – which if it happens they then again use as an excuse to cut taxes again. When we cut taxes, the GOP asks where are the offsets?
Then the Editor gets home five hours later than usual because he had his annual physical after work and then got caught in the holiday traffic – his route home skirts a major shopping center, and since he’s never out in the evening he got caught unawares. He is not a happy camper. Then he learns from the Washington Post that lobbyists cannot buy members of Congress a slice of pizza or a hot dog – buying meals is prohibited. But if I want to give one billion dollars to the party of my choice, as long as I am a company its okay for me to buy Congresspeople by the score, but it’s not okay for me to buy that same Congressperson who I own a slice of pizza?
Editor’s prayer to the Deity: “Please Lord, let this all be a bad dream and please may I wake into a sane world.”
Message left on Editor’s telephone answering machine by the Christian Deity: “Have left America to settle in New Zealand. No America-specific prayers will be answered any more. “
Oh, wait, the answering machine is still blinking. It’s another message, this time from the Hindu Deity. “You are living in a dream, Doofus, and the reason it’s a bad dream is that you were a very bad boy in your last life, and now you have to pay the price by making penance and maybe I’ll relent for your next life to the extent of letting you have one date one a Saturday.”
Message left by Editor on Hindu Deity’s answering machine: “Lord, I am so ready to be penitent I am even willing to wear a skirt and change my name to Ravina to atone for making fun of Bradly “Breana” Manning.”
Message left by Hindu Deity on Editor’s machine by Hindu Deity, seconded via conference call by all other Deities: “Don’t be silly. We mean you have to do a real penance. You are to go a whole day without disrespecting the President, Congress, the Democratic and Republican parties, the US Administration, and the Washington Post.”
Message left by Editor on all Deities telephone answering machines: “But making fun of all those people is the only way the Editor gets through this horrible dream.”
Message left by Deities on Editor’s answering machine: “Okay, we see your point. Your alternative penance, not negotiable, is to write something nice about the Kardashian Sisters and Lindsay Lohan.”
Message left by Deities on Editor’s answering machine: “Yo, Head Doofus. We have not heard from you. Give your reply at once: Deities don’t like to be kept waiting.”
Message left by Editor’s family on Deities answering machine: “Sorry for the delay. Editor did not reply because he shot himself, leaving a cryptic note: “I can’t do this”. Any idea what he was referring to?”

0230 GMT December 22, 2011

Can we please talk sense about Iraq? Anyone with one functioning brain cell knew that when the US left Iraq, the Iraqis would get back to sorting out their issues the way they did before the US arrived. By killing each other. Iraq is 60% Shia, 20% Sunni, and 20% Kurd. Rather than go back to 1600 AD, which to the Editor is yesterday but to our younger readers may seem too far in the past to identify with, let’s go back to 1970, when Saddam came into power. A Sunni, he killed any Kurd or Shia who opposed him. When US overthrew him, and introduced democracy, by the nature of the beast Iraq came to be ruled by Shias. The Sunnis were not happy, the Shias were itching for blood, and so you have the horrific events in the run-up to the US surge of 2007. The surge put an end to the bloodletting. Some say it did not, what ended the killing was that the Shias finished ethnically cleansing the Sunnis from the Shia majority provinces.
Either way, clearly the underlying tensions of the previous 400 years, when Sunni kings came to rule the three provinces of the Ottoman Empire we call Iraq were not resolved. Some say the tensions of the last 1300 years. The Shias made no secret that once the US left, they would get back to killing Sunnis. We can argue what precisely this means, some say that the Shia are perfectly happy to let the Sunnis have Sunni majority provinces and to live there in a united Iraq, as long as your average Shia does not have to see or smell a Sunni. After the US left, that the Shias waited, like, 12 hours before going after the key Sunni ministers in the US-brokered cabinet should have come as no surprise to anyone.
So from the viewpoint of some in the US, the US shouldn’t have left, and the Administration is criminally negligent for having pushed off. It is these people who seem to lack even one functioning brain cell. We’ve gone over this a jillion times. Let’s make it a jillion and one.
The US did not want to leave. Is there anything too complicated for the earthworm brained Americans who are now getting upset to understand? (Yes, we realize earthworms are Nobel material compared to the Americans we are talking about, but we don’t know any creature without a single braincell, except among the tribe known as Washingtoons. So the earthworms is a metaphor, we do not mean to insult the earthworm tribe.)
US plan was to occupy Iraq forever and a day with 50,000 troops. Problemo, dudes, as the Ninja Turtles used to say. With the exception of the Kurds, and some Sunnis, the vast majority of Iraqis did not want the US to stay. Just in case their own leaders did not get the point, extremists Shia including the Terrorist Al-Sadr told their government if the US did not leave, they would resume attacks on US forces. So is it the case of “we should have stayed” crowd that the US should get into a new war in Iraq? If so, can they tell us why?
US kept bargaining with the Iraqis. Okay, let us keep 20,000 troops. No? How about 5,000? No? Okay, you can’t object to 3,000, for heaven’s sake. Al-Malaki, who has no time for the Americans, got fed up and said: “Okay, but your troops cannot have immunity from arrest, trial, and jailing if we, the Iraqis, decide they have committed a crime.
Please for the Washingtoons to explain: how could any US president have agreed to this?
The Washingtoons say but if the Administration had negotiated skillfully, the Iraqis could have been brought around. Really? If people think that, they have zero clue about Iraq. What leverage is it the US had in the matter? Iraq is earning $80-billion a year – for a country of 30-million – from its oil. It has more money than we do. So it doesn’t want our money. Next, it doesn’t want our protection because the country we want to protect Iraq against is Iraq’s friend, whereas the people who the Iraqis may want protection against are America’s friends. Nor are the Iraqis interested in our oil expertise. In the lineup to develop Iraqi oil, one country is sadly missing. Us. Coinkydinky? We don’t think so. We don’t expect you to take our word for it: talk to the American oil companies and you will see Iraq made quite clear it was going to be Iraq’s way or the dirt road, and their way was ratcheted up to the point that it was near impossible for American companies to do business and still make what they consider a decent profit. Iraq does not want our oil expertise.
The Washington Post, which on some days views with Mad Magazine for the Funnies, yesterday suggested that the Iraqis want our F-16s so we have leverage with them.
Washington Post is, of course, confusing Iraq with Pakistan. Pakistan wants F-16s. Iraq would like to have F-16s, because frankly, for a small air force it’s a very good deal. But guess what, WashPo? Suppose Washington says: “Behave, or no F-16s”. The Iraqis are going to roll their eyes, and say, okay, no F-16s. They will turn around and buy Eurofighter, which if you have the money is a better buy. So perhaps the Euros say: “Oh, we can’t sell you Eurofighter because you are busy massacring Sunnis”, the Russians will say: “Here – take our Su-30”. It’s called the free market – something you can’t expect anyone in Washington to understand. So they don’t want our arms either.
By 2018 Iraq plans on pumping 13.5-million barrels/day of oil. Okay, its not going to happen till 2025. At $80/barrel, that is: One. Billion. Smackers. A. Day. (We have to say this slowly because Washingtoons, being brainless, are not quick.) That sum is $120,000/per capita using today’s population and prices. What precisely is this leverage we’re supposed to have over Iraq?
Next we come to a point of philosophy Can the United States explain to us why it wants Iraq to stay together? If there is one country above all others that has broken up nations, it is the US. We’re not saying this is right or wrong. Merely asking Americans: why are you contradicting yourselves? Just in the last twenty something years, the US helped create: fifteen new states from the former USSR, six countries freed from the Soviet Empire, breakup of Czechoslovakia, and eight countries from Former Yugoslavia. That’s 29 right there. Did the US try and keep Sudan together? Sudan has already split into two, and if Darfur manages to get independence you aren’t going to see the US object. If Belgium decides to split, are we going to see US peacekeepers yelling “Peace and Harmony, or we shoot!” We could continue, but you get the point.
In each of the cases, US took the sensible stand that people did not want to live together, and the US did what it could to create amicable separations. The right course in Iraq is not moan and whine about being forced out, but to tell the Iraqis: “We don’t want you killing each other, let’s help you separate.” Oooooh, but that means an independent Kurdistan, and Turkey will not like that. You know what? How is that an American problem? The clear solution is a Kurdish state of four provinces, a Sunni state of four, and a Shia state of ten. As for how the Sunnis are going to survive (a) there’s said to be a ton and a half of natural gas in Sunni provinces (b) how is this our problem? Let the Gulf Arabs help their co-religionists. By the way, if US doesn’t want to leave Iraq, A Sunni nation and a Kurd nation will gladly accept US protection.
So: Washington, stop whining already From Day One going to into Iraq served no American objective. The Iraqis have done us a favor by forcing us to quit cold turkey. We should be thanking Al-Malaki and Al-Sadr for saving us from our folly. Feeling lonely that we’re not occupying someone? Heck, there’s plenty of action in Africa. Somalia and Darfur come immediately to mind. (Somalia is very high on the list of countries to split, by the way. There’s already three autonomous nations: Jubaland (Anazia), Puntland, and Somaliland.)
That sound you’re hearing is Editor banging his head against the neighbor’s stone wall Give him a minute and he’ll tell you why. It feels too good to stop.
Okay. Remember yesterday we were saying a friend was trying to explain Keynes is dead because Keynes does not work when there is a huge debt overhang?
Reader BR points out that (a) our friend was channeling Robert Samuelson’s column of a few days back, and (b), he sends a graph from a Paul Krugman article that shows UK, at least, is pretty low debt-wise compared to the last 170 years. You can see the graph at http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/19/dont-know-much-about-history-debt-edition/?emc=eta1 Truthfully, aside from the British military and a general knowledge of British history, Editor knows nothing about British economic history. So it was a big surprise to learn that in the 1830, British debt was 180% of GDP. Then it steadily reduced so that by 1914, it was 30% (we’re reading off the graph, these are approximations). By 1950 it was a whacking great 260% of GDP, then started coming down again. 1970s through 2005 it was at 50%. Now the public debt is 63%; if money lent to banks is included it is 148% http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/334/uk-economy/uk-national-debt/
We’re wondering if Robert Samuelson is the son of the Samuelson who wrote the economics text used when Editor took Economics 1 and Economics 180. There were a whole bunch of textbooks one was supposed to master, including monetary policy, microeconomics, and labor policy. Editor never got to the other books. He didn’t get past page 20 in the Samuelson text – invariably the graph explaining marginal utility Editor would fall fast asleep.
The North Korean Troika The word is that power will be shared by the Podgy Kid who is either 27, 28, or 29, or all three, his aunt and her husband (aunt is the now dead dad’s sister), and the generals. Apparently the aunt likes her alcohol and own’s Pyongyang’s only hamburger joint.
Simply fascinating. Zzzzzzz.
More bangy-bangy in Iran this time as an Isfahan refinery and the Kermanshah HQ of the Revolutionary Guard. From what we read, it seems most of the explosions are the work of Iran dissidents, not foreigners.
Syria 250 dead in the last 48 hours, including nearly 100 regime soldiers and about as many deserters. Rebels are now operating in a Damascus suburb seven miles from downtown Damascus.
Haaretz of Israel says half of the conscripts for the last three call-ups have not reported for training and 10,000 soldiers have deserted, including entire units. Warning: Haaretz is not an impartial source even if Israel would rather live with the devil it knows (Assad) than with a chaotic Syria at war with itself.
Iraq The Sunni Vice President al-Malaki seeks to arrest for treason and terrorism has fled to Kurdistan, where he cannot be touched by Iraq forces. Al-Malaki has told the Sunnis if they do not stop their boycott of parliament, he will form a new government and exclude them from power. He has told the Kurds to hand over the Sunni VP or face the consequences.

0230 GMT December 21, 2011

Bradley Manning Sorry, that should be Breana Manning. Anyway, we jumped the gun a bit about Manning’s sentence. What’s happening is a pre-trial hearing, not the trial. The way it’s going, however, there is no doubt whatsoever that (a) Manning will be sent to trial; (b) Manning will be found guilty; and (c) the sole question is the sentence.
Now, regarding Julian Assange. The prosecution has introduced evidence that Assange and Manning were in direct contact. But as yet it has not been proved that any emails Manning may have given Assange were published. So the thinking is that so far no case can be made against Assange.
We differ slightly. US laws are not concerned with if you published a US secret document. They are concerned with if you had unauthorized possession of the secret. So let’s see how this plays out.
Assange might be tempted to feel pleased he has been directly linked to Manning, because that ups the chances of his prosecution. That in turn bolsters his contention that he should not be extradited to any country that might extradite him to the US, as the offense is a death penalty offense.
But we don’t think this is going to make any difference to Assange’s extradition to Sweden. He has to reasonably show Sweden will extradite him to the US. He cannot show that, because from what we understand, his Wikileaking was not a crime in Sweden. Realistically, there is a chance Britain will extradite him to US because of the close ties the two countries have. He would be safer in Sweden, unless, of course, at the end of proceedings in Sweden, guilty or innocent, the Swedes put him on a plane to Australia. The Australians have already said they are taking a dim view of Assange’s games.
But can Assange not argue before a British court that he should not be sent to US, as Britain has no death penalty? No, because US will simply give UK assurances the death penalty will not be imposed. Nor can he argue he will be tortured, because this is not a black case. It concerns the Official Secrets Act, which means it will be handled in the criminal justice system. So no torturing. Too bad. If anyone deserves to be waterboarded, it is Mr. Smirky Face. Not because of the severity of his crime, but because of his arrogance.
Had A-Bomb Number Three not worked on Japan We wondered yesterday what would have happened had Japan refused to surrender even after being A-bombed. Today while taking a break from updating Concise World Armies, we surfed around and found an article that said the US was aware of the possibility the Japanese would not surrender despite the A-bombs. But – something we didn’t know – was rapidly accumulating fissile material and would have had enough for 20 bombs into 1946. The plan was to use the weapons tactically in support of an invasion. Editor is sorry he did not note the reference.
By the way, Editor recalls decades ago reading a paper in a Harvard journal (International Security) about recently declassified documents which discussed a plan in 1948 or 1949 to nuke the USSR. It was well recognized that the existential threat posed by Hitler had been replaced by one posed by Stalin. Soviets were known to be working on N-weapons, and the thought was, best to get this over with while US could. Well, the reason this plan was dropped was because after the war, the US essentially stopped production of the darn weapons. There didn’t seem any reason to make more of them. Readers will also remember the US had offered atomic disarmament if everyone else went along with it – Baruch Plan, which Moscow rejected. So the US didn’t have but a few of the things, and all it needed was one look at the size of the Soviet Union to realize A-bombing USSR wouldn’t achieve the objective of crippling that country.
Some minor good news from Eurozone Spanish 10-year yields fell to 5.05 from 6.78% a month ago, and Italian 10-year yields fell to their lowest in almost 2-months, at 4.91%.
We’re not all that impressed because the market gets spooked at the smallest thing. There’s a lot of irrationality at work. For example, there is no reason at all for Spain to be in trouble. And also there’s some hang-up on the Greek plan.
Is it goodbye, Mr. Keynes? Someone was patiently explaining to us that when Keynes came up with his ideas, governments had small public debts and private global funds did not have any influence on the market. And there was no such thing as the colossal private debt overhang we have today. So governments could stimulate the economy by spending.
We are sorry to say our eyes glazed over and we did not hear the rest of the scholarly exposition. It’s become obvious to most rational people that no one has an easy answer. That being the case, we’re not interested in the theology of the thing. And theology is what is under discussion, or at least theology in the guise of economics.
Reader Luxembourg sent a story about a teacher in California who retired after 40-years on a pension of $170,000/year. Dang. Why is Editor always in the wrong place? In Maryland, public servants including teachers pay in 6%, and after about 30 years get 1/3^rd of the average of their last three years of service. Also, teachers get no steps after 20-years: you get a cost of living increase and that’s it.
See, folks, if some state has made some absurd promises to its employees, obviously the pension has to be cut back. But in states where the employees have paid their fair share, its wrong for a state to say “oh well, we haven’t been paying in our share so too bad for you.” Even the staunchest conservative would be upset if after paying their social security taxes to the government the government turns around and says: “Sorry, we mismanaged our share of the contribution so you’re going to lose.”
And no – please – lets not get into this “this is why all pensions should be privatized” business. We have plenty of evidence how easily the private sector can get out of its obligations – just declare bankruptcy. It honestly is time Americans on both sides talked about what will work, not go on and on about ideological purity. We’re in this mess because we stopped being practical. The solution is not to get even less practical.

0230 GMT December 20, 2011

Just by the way here’s another perspective on why America had to use the A-Bomb against Japan. http://hnn.us/articles/52353.html The article is from a scholarly source, George Mason’s University. It notes than of America’s 1.25-million casualties in World War II, one million were suffered in the year between June 1944 and June 1945. We may assume American war planners were not in a kind, soft-hearted mood about the enemy, German or Japanese, and the last thing on their mind was how to save the enemy’s lives. Rather, their minds would have been focused on getting the war over with as soon as possible. American strategists had seen how the Japanese were prepared to fight to the very last. Given the ferocity with they defended their positions in the Pacific, there was not one reason to believe they would defend their home islands any less ferociously. And among many other factors, American suddenly realized Japan had not 3.5-million defenders left, but seven million.
The article makes clear that the issue of casualties was thoroughly debated at the highest levels by experts, contrary to what revisionist historians have maintained.
Our position is that it’s fine after the war to sit and endlessly debate how we could have done this or done that, anything but use the A-Bombs. What no one has explained is why America’s leaders should NOT have used every weapon at their disposal. How precisely were America’s leaders to have told the country: “We have a weapon we think can end the war immediately, but we’ve decided not to use it because we think it’s immoral.” How precisely was the use of the A-bombs immoral? It is possible to argue that their use was far more humane than the saturation bombing of Japanese cities we were undertaking.
It is said we could have blockaded Japan and brought the war to an end and there was no need to invade. No insult intended to the undoubtedly sincere revisionists, but this is crazy thinking. It is backward thinking: having decided the A-bombs were immoral, the revisionists look for ways to win the war without the bombs.
But who responsible for making decisions at the time thought the bombs were immoral? Sure, some of the scientists who witnessed the test wondered what they had unleashed. But surely there were scientists who, seeing the destruction conventional bombing was wrecking on Japan and Germany who wondered what they had unleashed. Doubts are natural. That does not mean decision makers responsible to their people for ending the war as efficiently as possible should get into existential tangles.
And we argue the bombs were NOT immoral. The war ended ten days after they were used. No other justification for their use is needed.
Recently a Japanese man who survived one of the bombings and who became an ambassador for peace died. In his obituary, it was noted how he had met Col. Paul Tibbets, and said that he saw a tear roll down the pilot’s cheek. The story also noted that when Tibbets was told that, he told a friend nothing of the sort happened. He said he was sorry that the Japanese burned, but he had to do what he had to do.
And there’s nothing more to be said. America did what it had to do. Had the Germans developed the bomb first, they would have used it – on London, if necessary. If the Japanese had developed it first, they would have used. There’s no morality involved.
Incidentally, today we learned something interesting Editor has always maintained that those who say it was racism to use the bomb against Japan and we’d never have used it against Germany are plain wrong. Americans who say that don’t understand their own people. For the first time, however, we have proof of this assertion. Read this article http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2002/aug/06/nuclear.japan in which Studs Terkel interviews Tibbets.
Tibbets told Terkel in 2002 that the US was training for a simultaneous drop of bombs on Germany and Japan.
And equally interesting, Tibbets says that when there was no reaction from the Japanese after the second bombing, General Curtis Le May called him to ask if there was a third bomb. Tibbets said there was in, in Utah. Le May told him to get it because Tibbets was going to make another run. Tibbets said they got the bomb to California, from where they would fly to Tinian, and the war ended.
Think about that for a minute. No orders from the President, the Joint Chiefs, or whatever. Curtis Le May, head of 21^st Bomber Command, quite junior in the scheme of things, calls one of his group commanders to ask if there’s a third bomb. Tibbets says yes. Le May tells him to bring it over. Tibbets is in the process of doing that when the war ends. Of course one can doubt that Le May would have sent Tibbets out again without getting clearance. But if this story is not a big “Whoa!”, what is.
The History Learning site (UK) reminds us that the bombing of Tokyo March 9-10, 1945, killed as many as 100,000 people. This what Le May had to say about his role in the war: "Killing Japanese didn't bother me very much at the time....I suppose if I had lost the war, I would have been tried as a war criminal....every soldier thinks something of the moral aspects of what he is doing. But all war is immoral and if you let that bother you, you're not a good soldier." http://www.historylearningsite.co.uk/curtis_lemay.htm
“All war is immoral”. We can respect the pacifist who takes the next step and says “I will not kill, regardless of the provocation.” We cannot respect those who suddenly draw a line – after the event – and say: “using the A-bombs was immoral.”
We leave readers with a thought. What if the third bomb had been dropped, worked, but the Japanese still refused to surrender?

0230 GMT December 19, 2011

Egyptian Army drops all pretense of being “for the people” The brutality with which the Egyptian Army is attacking demonstrators makes it clear the Egyptian Army isn’t for anyone except itself. The Army’s expectation – and that of some people in Washington who should know better – is that the Muslim Brotherhood, having won the elections, has no interest in joining the demonstrators. So the demonstrators can be suppressed.
We’re all neurotic, more or less; the real test of sanity is psychosis, where your reality fundamentally differs from reality. The Egyptian Army is well on its way to becoming psychotic, because where in the world do they get the idea the Brotherhood will be content to sham rule Egypt while the Army maintains real power? Editor can agree the Brotherhood has no interest in the demonstrations. Who, after all, wants to come out into the streets when in a little while they will be the government? Once that happens, however, the Brotherhood will take control over all the non-military instruments of power including the security and finance apparatus, and there should be no doubt in anyone’s mind that the Brotherhood will then move against the Army.
Washington has so many problems to deal with that for once we do not feel we should criticize its catatonic Eyes Wide Shut response to the Egyptian Army’s crackdown. Most of Washington just wants the problem – and about five hundred other problems – to just go away. There is a limit to how many crises even Washington, with its immense energy and relentless push to create more problems, can take.
Nonetheless – and we will limit ourselves to saying just this – it is unseemly that Washington has not told the generals to back off or face sanctions. Some will tell you that Washington has indeed done this. Unfortunately, all Washington has done is threaten to beat the generals with a limp flower, and not every hour either, but solely when there is a conjunction of all nine planets in our solar system. People since 1776 have looked to America to support the right of self-determination. Call us impossibly idealistic, but we really do expect Washington to appreciate the Declaration of Independence and the Bill of Rights applies to all humans, not just to those fortunate to have been born by accident in this country.
From a person we often ask what’s going on with political America and whose analyses we have learned to trust. “As matters stand right now, with the caveat that things can dramatically change in a short while, 2013-2016 will be a repeat of 2009-2016. The next president will be Mr. Obama, and he may get even less done in his second term than he got done in his first, if that is possible to imagine. The Democrats will continue control of the Senate, but still not have enough seats to defeat filibusters. The GOP will continue control of the House, though with a reduced margin. Americans will continue holding Congress in contempt, but will still not understand what they can do to change things. Vested interests of every kind will continue to rule, and corruption will reach even higher levels. After the effects of the coming recession wear off, growth will resume, but because there is no political agreement on how America should be run, real growth will barely keep ahead of population growth. The rich will continue to get richer, the middle class to shrink, and the poor will grow poorer. America’s standing in the world will continue to fall, even as every rational nation will remain wary of American’s enormous capacity to impose military harm should we get into a bad mood. In other words, same-old, same-old.”
Bradley Manning’s defense: he was confused about his sexuality The Wikileaker had an alter-ego, “Breanna”.
You know, we feel for Breanna. When it comes to alter-ego, Walter Mitty had nothing on your Editor, though admittedly Editor’s alter-egos do not include a “Ravini”. That’s clearly a serious shortcoming in the Editor’s character. He defends himself by saying he’s never claimed to be perfect.
But whatever we feel, we do not think the military court is going to be moved. From the court’s viewpoint, there are but two questions. One, is Manning guilty as charged. It appears his defense has no hope of avoiding a guilty verdict. Two, if guilty, what is to be his sentence. Clearly the defense is aiming at mitigating the sentence.
Manning cuts such a pathetic, unsoldierly picture that a person’s first thought has to be: Gosh, the US Army has to be very seriously desperate to recruit a person like him. His appearance and this Breanna thing could go either of two ways with the judge. He could laugh at the Breanna thing (to himself) and say this man is a lost soul, instead of giving him 30-years in Levenworth I’ll give him 22. Or the judge could get totally put off and give Manning 30-years.
We may be way off base, but we don’t think he’s going to get more than 30. After all, this is not like the CIA moles whose actions cost lives.
Anyway, good luck, Breanna, from your friend, er, Ravini. Next time try not to betray your country because you want to dress up in frills and lace and make-up, will ya?

0230 GMT December 18, 2011

Is there an organization more irritating than the US Army? Updating the US Army has to be the most unrewarding task of any in the orbat business because you have miles and miles worth of every type of unit except combat units. This year, reader Ryan Opel is helping so Editor is feeling less imposed on. But then he’s reviewing US Army Europe, and what do we see? Four rather anemic combat brigades, and among the supporting arms: 4 MP, 5 Military Intelligence, and nine signals battalions. Come on, people, how can you have 18 of just three types of supporting arms for four combat brigades? Why do we need nine signals battalions? What are the four MP battalions doing? And five MI battalions? US needs to cut back on these supporters and get at least three more combat brigades with the manpower.
Yes, we’re familiar with the argument that if needed the US will reinforce Europe so these support troops are needed. But there’s a gazillion support battalions in the reserves too.
Editor just updated the Marine Corps entry, and with the orders to cut 15,000 troops, the first thing the Marines are doing is deactivating three infantry battalions. So you’re going to have a 187,000 Marine Corps with 24 infantry battalions. The reasoning is that, well, you can always quickly train up more infantry if needed.
Sorry, folks, this is Grade A Inane. Who do the Marines and Army think does the fighting? The support battalions? No, it’s the infantry, the armor, the artillery. So where do you need the best trained and most experienced troops? Not in support functions. Does the military think the job of a rifleman or machine gunner is so simple you can give someone 90 days training and that’s adequate? You need at least two years – you heard us, general – two years to train combat troops. If you don’t do that, you’re sending half-trained boys to get killed. Anyone remember Vietnam? Why do you think the casualties were so high? Well, yes, we know the VC Main Force and NVA were superb troops. We know the generals thought they were fighting World War II. But it was also because you had hundreds of thousands of clueless kids thrown into battle. And then, of course, the ones that made it through alive one way or another, who were now experienced, we sent home to replace with another bunch of tyros.
For this the generals get paid?
Oh, but, Mr. Editor, you don’t understand, numbers don’t wind wars, its synergy and intelligence, and logistics, and blah and blah. Balderdash. Rot. Feeble minds. There is no substitute for combat numbers. We’ve spent ten years in Afghanistan and are coming home after eight in Iraq and we haven’t understood that?
Oh, but, Mr. Editor, you don’t understand, we aren’t going to fight those kinds of wars anymore. We fight smart, not numbers. Look at our fantastic intelligence fusion, for example.
Aaaaaannnnnd? Did your fantastic intelligence fusion help you stop the flow of insurgents from Pakistan into Afghanistan? Were we winning in Iraq before we sent in the big divisions? For heaven’s sake people, Iraq and Afghanistan are not pre-history – they’re today. Why do we refuse to learn lessons from the wars we are fighting today?
And as for not fighting those kinds of wars: we seem to recall the giant genius military minds telling us we weren’t going to fight any more counter-insurgencies any more, after Vietnam. Then we spent a decade fighting two wars that were – hold your breath – counterinsurgencies.
What do our generals think wars are? Like a buffet, chose which one you want and decline the one you don’t want? People, you don’t choose your wars. Your wars choose you. You fight the war the enemy brings to you.
And in any case, what is this butt-backward thinking: we don’t like counter-insurgency, so we won’t do it – how does that make any sense at all? No one asked you what you like or don’t like, sir and (now) madam general.
Someone needs to smack a lot of heads with skillets. Make that anvils: our generals have pretty hard heads. And each time they are smacked, we need to say loudly: “Numbers. Numbers. Numbers.”
All praise to Saint Steve? Yesterday we came across a news article saying the chip for Apple’s new phone is to be made in – get this – Texas. Yes, Samsung has invested $3.6-billion in a new fabrication line for the chip. One thousand Americans will be employed. That’s a whacking great $3.6-million for each job created, by the way, something we do need to discuss but not today. Of course, we don’t doubt for a moment the jobs will be as badly paid as Samsung can get away with. But at least a thousand more people will have manufacturing jobs.
Does this mean we’ve forgiven Steve Jobs for shipping heaven knows how many jobs to Foxconn in China? No, we haven’t. You’d have to show us evidence that Steve actually stopped gazing at his navel long enough to say: “Gee, I must do something for America, let me work with Samsung and get a fab-facility put up in the US.” We doubt Steve Jobs gave the matter another thought, and if Samsung had said “But you’ll have to pay $5 a phone more”, Steve would have shot that down very rapidly.
Government subsidies for energy We learn that the science and technology for fracking has been heavily subsidized by the government for decades. Without these subsidies, it is unlikely private industry would have been able to afford to develop the technology, particularly when gas prices were low.
We discussed this with someone who knows a bit about these things. Their response: “No one in their right mind denies government has a role in basic/fundamental research, perhaps even in some kinds of applied research. Nuclear power would never have gotten anywhere but for government-funded R & D. You wouldn’t have an internet but for the government. Satellites are another example. What people are objecting to is government trying to pick winners by giving money for manufacturing facilities such as happened with Solyndra. Picking winner and losers is not something bureaucrats do well. That’s the job of the market.”
Fair enough, we said, except you can’t say the market is much good at picking winners and losers, either. Look at the airlines mess, which has been going on for decades. The airlines just keep losing money, decade after decade.
The response: “Accepted. But the government has to be held to a higher standard because the government appropriates your money, backed by the very real threat of throwing you in jail if you don’t hand over your money. Then when the government messes up by deciding who it will invest with, it’s not a decision YOU took, but you pay the price. It’s your choice to invest – or not – in the airlines. You didn’t have a choice when the government invested in Solyndra.”
We had to concede the point. And that’s a few hundred million now not available for R and D. So we, the people, lose twice.

0230 GMT December 17, 2011

The Hidden Story Behind The Battle To Save the Euro There are two types of people in the world. One, the insiders, which is the 0.01%. The other is the dofuses like you and me, who are the remaining 99.99%.
When it comes to military matters, while the Editor is no insiders, having religiously studied the issues since age 14, Editor has sufficient knowledge that he can still fairly well tell what’s going on. But since Editor is not an international banker, he doesn’t know any inside stories about stuff like the Euro.
Business Week to the rescue. In its December 19-26, 2011 issue, BW tells us that Germany has lent $650-billion to the European Central Bank, even while proclaiming to the world that no slacker country is going to get a pfenning unless it agree to German Fiscal Discipline, which is so tough it makes the Prussian Army look like a bunch of part-time actors for the annual Nutcracker ballet performance. Business Week figured this out by analyzing reams of documents, because no where can you find the information stated as simply as an entry is Angela Merkel’s diary saying: “Lent $650-billion to ECB today. Boooorrriiiinggg. Uhlrich still refusing to throw away his much-too-worn slippers he has owned since the Berlin Wall went up. I threw them out, and he chased the garbage disposal truck for five kilometers to get them back. Can the Iranians be tricked into making a nuclear strike against his slippers? Because frankly, that’s what it is going to take to get rid of them.”
Now, if you didn’t know Germany has given ECB that money, in proportion to GDP which is like US investing $3-trillion in the ECB, you wouldn’t know that regardless of what Chancellor Merkel is saying to the world, she can’t afford to let the Euro go down the drain. Any more than US Fed can afford to let $3-tril go down the drain. Changes things, no?
This little piece of information, available to insiders, makes a lot of difference not just to the Euro story, it shows in stark form why capitalism does not work as it should.
Hold the horses, people When we say capitalism does not work as it should, we are not then advocating some other economic system. Remember, we’ve said this many times: capitalism, like democracy, is the worst thing – till you are faced with the alternatives. All we’re saying is: capitalism depends on a free flow of information because without equal access to information, you and I cannot make the sort of informed decisions the insiders can. The market cannot function. People with inside information distort the market to their advantage, which is why John Paulson takes homer $6-billion/year or whatever he’s doing these days, whereas you and I look at our paychecks and have a tough debate on if we are going to pay that Washington DC parking ticket or buy a Brazilian grape.
According to your Editor, if Government has a role in economic matters, it should not be to regulate, because if you allow the government to regulate, the insiders with their big $$$$ pay off Congress to set up regulations that favor the insiders. Government’s role should be to level the playing field by providing information to everyone. Information transparency. Now, of course when the government issues a daily sheet of information with 100-million variables on it, the aforesaid John Paulson is in a much better position to sort out what it means than, say, Bozo the Clown. Because JP has spent his lifetime sorting out figures and BC has not. There’s nothing wrong with JP benefiting from his greater experience and more diligent study. [Strictly speaking, what we should say is that JP will be able to afford to hire 1000 top B-School grads to figure out the data whereas Bozo will think that B-School is where bees go to learn their ABCs. But you get our drift.]
But wait, you will say. What’s to stop the big $$$ people from influencing the government to give them the data first? That is easily taken care of. When discovered, the government people can be sent to jail. That won’t end all malfeasance, but it will certainly deter a lot of government people.
Disclaimer Please do not take this story as a reason to rush out and buy Euros. The way this stuff works, if Business Week is selling that information to Editor as part of his teacher subscription of $30/year, it’s likely already outdated.
Talking of Business Week, which is now owned by Bloomberg Remember the other day Bloomberg revealed that the US Fed had given $7.5-trillion to banks, including foreign banks, without telling anyone, to stabilize the global banking system? Well, US Fed says hogwash. The sum was $1.5-trillion, and was repaid. Yes, it went to foreign banks as well as American ones. But that’s because foreign banks hold American private and government debt.; If there is a Euro bailout, American banks will benefit because they hold private and public Euro debt.
So is the $7.5-trillion figure invented by Bloomberg? No. US Fed said it would make that money available if needed as a way of telling the world’s speculators: don’t think you can bet against us and win. We’ll print enough dollars to choke you and anyone else who thinks they can deft us, and you’ll be begging for change on Wall Street.
Fair enough, but we STILL object to what the Fed did It’s that same question all the little people are asking: Why did the banks get bailed out and not us? The Fed says if credit had frozen business would have come to a standstill. But business still did not hire those it had fired because there was no demand. So it didn’t matter the banks were liquid. There is a much more logical case to be made for lending every American $5000, man, woman, child (equals $1.5-trillion) using deferred taxes. People would have spent that money, stimulating demand and getting people hired again. The money could have been recovered over 10 years or whatever so that it didn’t add to the national debt.
More discussion on the Iranian drone It’s fair to call it the Iranian drone, because President Obama asked for it back, nicely, and the Iranians told him to take a running jump. (Actually they were a lot more rude than that.) Since we say it strayed off-course, technically it got lost and the Iranians found it. Finders keepers, losers weepers, and all that.
Reader Chris Raggio has been following the story and discussed with us the Iranian claim that they took over the drone’s GPS unit, and told it to land. Some experts have said well, yes, that’s possible to do. But we don’t like this explanation for a variety of reasons.
First, it seems an opportunistic explanation based on news stories that Hezbollah or whoever hacked US drones using parts they got from a Radio Shack or whatever. US said yes, the baddies had hacked into the system, but couldn’t do anything after that, so they are none the wiser.
Second, the GPS signals you and I use are not encrypted. But military GPS is encrypted, and you have to bust that encryption – which still doesn’t mean you can take control.
Third, where’s the drone’s undercarriage? No sign of any undercarriage. This means it did not land normally, whatever happened the undercarriage got totaled. That, and the crazy welds make the US story of a crash more plausible, though of course you can say the Iranian could have welded the undercarriage together. That doesn’t explain why they haven’t done that. Plus there’s the other stuff like some experts saying it’s the wrong color and so on. And you can see that, why would the US have coated the drone white?
Fourth, if this is indeed a stealth drone, how come the Iranians saw it, and at night too, when the stealth stuff flies?
That said, we have a general observation and a major gripe. The general observation is: has anyone seen an RB-170 in the first place? Bill Sweetman, the renowned aircraft identifying person, deduced from pictures taken of a strange drone flying out of Kandhar it was an RB-170. But honesty, as far as Editor knows, no one knows. If you have some familiarity with US black programs, there’s a case to be made that no one knows if there is something called the RB-170 in the first place, or if the US is just using that as a cover for something else.
As a simple example of what we mean, go back to the F-117. It was revealed to the world at some point in the 1980s. But as of 1963 the US changed its aircraft designation system, starting over in a sense, with the A-1, A-3, A-4, A-5, A-6, F-4, F-5, F-8 and so on.
[Well does the Editor remember that because he had to sit and memorize all the new designations. It’s always annoying when your previous body of knowledge becomes irrelevant, because you can’t show off till you’ve mastered the new body of knowledge. Of course, the new system was so simple and logical it was a huge relief. It’s hard to think of anything the US military has done since then that was as sensible. Or is Editor revealing his true age by saying that?]
The 100s designations are from the 1950s – F-100, F-101, F-102, F-104, F-105, F-106 and so on and so forth. Now either you say this plane was originally developed in the 1950s and remained a closely guarded secret till the 1980s – by which time it would be obsolete – or the US for reasons of its own applied an obsolete designation to a new fighter.
There is no law that says the US has to tell the truth regarding national security. So you lose a drone, say one of your least advanced. Someone says “ooooh, I know, teacher, it was over Iran so it has to be an RB-170 because US would only fly its best over Iran.” Then the US Government mumbles – the usual sources – oh yeah, embarrassing as heck and all that, but it was an RB-170.” Meanwhile Iranians are looking at something that has nothing advanced about it, and saying “gosh, this encryption is really hard to crack whereas the thing has no encryption at all – just an example.
True, you could equally say the US lost something very advanced, and is saying its an RB-170 because the RB-170 is on the verge of obsolescence.
The gripe comes because we don’t care if the drone was the private property of an enthusiastic soldier who likes to put together radio-controlled airplanes, or something equally insignificant. You do NOT let Iran have it. You bomb it just on general principle.
And what is this business of (a) President Obama asking for the drone back, and (b) SecDef Panetta saying that had to be done? Why did it have to be done? Is the US going to sue Iran for the return of its property or something equally stupid?
The reason you play tough is that it saves trouble later. Remember the Iranians let the hostages go when Reagan was elected president. “Him heap crazy” the Iranians said. Actually, Reagan did not take national security risks. He was not crazy. He just cultivated the persona of a crazy cowboy. It worked with Iran. Many believe it was responsible for finally getting the Soviets to understand they couldn’t win against the US.
President Obama is coming across as J. Carter, Esquire. Not a good idea when dealing with Iran

0230 GMT December 16, 2011

We forgot to mention yesterday in connection with the story about the universe as a video game: That idea comes up a lot, but we think Brian Greene in “The Hidden Reality” explains it best.

Can the Giant Genius Minds of America explain to us again how messed up the Europeans are and by implication how great we are? Editor needs this explanation because once again – for what must be about the fifth or sixth time this year, who keeps count – the US Government is in danger of shutting down for lack of funds. Here it is three months into Fiscal 2012, and we don’t have a budget. Clearly Editor’s understanding of how completely ignorant the Europeans are compared to us is faulty, but is there ANY government in the entire world – and we’re including Zimbabwe as part of the world – that threatens to shut down every 2-3 months and seems to go years without a budget?
Editor thinks we need to change our national anthem to “Yes, we have no bananas today”. A Banana Republic at least has bananas. We aren’t a Banana Republic because yes, we have no bananas today. We have Looney Tuners in abundance, though. They’re called the US Congress.
If Congress doesn’t want to do its job, there’s a simple solution. Don’t pay them.
Oh wait – we forgot members of Congress are public servants. So as the GOP keeps telling us, public servants get paid even though they do no work. So we can’t single out Congress, including its GOP members, for punitive stuff like withholding paychecks.
Obviously there is a case here for paying GOP members of Congress $1-quadrillion each – every hour – because the GOP is the party of the job creaters. Instead of paying tax on that $1-quadrillion per hour, we, the grateful people of America, should sell our wives and sons to the Chinese and use the money to give tax credits to the GOP members so they can create even more jobs.
Sorry, ladies, we are not being sexist: the Chinese will buy American women and boy children, but not American men and girl children. It’s called globalization…excuse us a minute, we’ve got mail…
“Dear Editor, how can you forget that American women can sell their husbands to the Iranians? I think you ARE being sexist because there is no way you don’t know that. Regards, Caitlin Duffy.”
Okay, we did know that, but subconsciously “forgot”, so we guess we remain sexist despite years of trying to do the right thing. Correct: we can sell American men to Iran and use the money to give even more tax credits to the GOP congresspersons for creating even more jobs. Too bad the jobs will be on Kepler 22b, the newly-discovered planet a few quadrillion kilometers away.
Democratic congresspersons obviously get lumps of coal, because what jobs have they created, huh, huh? Here’s a slogan for when you go and demonstrate against Democratic members of Congress: “Two, Four, Six, Eight, Who Is It We Love To Hate? Jobkillers, jobkillers! One, Three, Five, Seven, and Nine, Wont America Be Just So Fine, After We Kill the Jobkillers, Jobkillers!”…. Excuse us, we’ve got mail again…
“Dear Editor, clearly you are about to disrespect President Obama next. Let me make clear I will not stand for that. If you say one word against President Obama, I personally will date you this Saturday. FYI, I am the Telephone Pole Tossing Champion of Beedle-Deedle, Iowa. Since you weigh more than a telephone pole, are twice as ugly, and three times less intelligent, I look forward to setting a new record tossing you from Takoma Park, Maryland to National Airport. Regards, Caitlin Duffy.”
Caitlain Duffy, you misunderstand the Editor. He was just about to say that President Obama is – er – so intelligent, charismatic, good-looking, and witty, that he does not deserve to be President of this scruffy little republic we call the US of A. Yes, that is why Editor is proposing Mr. Obama be elected the president of Kepler 22b. Love to be dated by you, but we don’t know who told you Editor lives in Takoma Park, Maryland. He resides at 39 Degrees North, 125 Degrees and 25 Minutes East. Till next Saturday…

0230 GMT December 15, 2011

Butter in Norway reaches $900/kilo: Is the world about to end?

Reader Luxembourg keeps a sharp look for out-of-the-way news and sends on a bunch of URLs each evening. This is what he sent yesterday: butter has reached $900/kilo in Norway. Something to do with the summer being more dry (or was it more wet) and the fodder being not the right sort to get the maximum milk production; combined with the Norwegians have gone crazy trying to lead healthy lives and have decided to stuff themselves with any dish that requires huge amounts of butter; combined with Norwegian customs regulations on butter imports. So it is not as simple a matter as filling up a few 747 freighters with 100-tons of butter each and sending them over to Oslo. Indeed, an enterprising Russian was arrested for bringing in 90-kilos of butter in his car from Sweden. We thought there were no customs regs in the EU, but what do we know.
The above is the OFFICIAL explanation of why butter went to $900/kg ($400/pound) in Norway. But there could be another explanation.
Some cosmologists argue there is evidence the universe is being run as a game inside a computer. How would we know if this is true? One way is that one day the numbers just don’t add up anymore.
Now, a bit of basic high school math here. The set of irrational numbers is very much larger than the set of rationals. Irrationals are numbers with non-repeating, non-terminating decimals. The square root of 2, or 3, or 5 etc. is an irrational. So as a practical matter, engineers etc are continually having to round numbers. Well, you keep on rounding and one day you are going to get an error. That’s why you have those caveats in tables with figures given as percentages which warn: “Due to rounding numbers will not sum to 100%”.
For practical purposes, that’s fine. But you can see that the rounding error will keep building up. And one day instead of 100, you will get 99 or 101. Suppose now that that error is in something critical, say a part of the computer program that determines gravity and water starts flowing uphill. You’d notice that, one assumes.
Let’s take a less drastic example. Butter reaching $900/kilo in Norway, is that a sign that rounding errors in the computer program are starting to give totally absurd results?
Now assume you are the Super Geek middle-school girl who is running the program that is our universe. What do you do? You can either let the water run uphill, at which point something else goes wrong which causes something else to go wrong, and of a sudden your Sims all turn into flying purple elephants, and you hate flying purple elephants. So you have to reboot your universe.
So Super Geek Girl goes CTRL-ALT-DEL and while the universe is resetting she checks her I-Phone to see why her order for Ugg boots she paid $150 for hasn’t arrived (or the equivalent of Ugg boots, in the Super Geek’s universe), but as for you and me, its light out, game over.
So what we are suggesting is that it is possible – if the cosmologists who postulate we live in a computer game are right – that $900/kilo butter in Norway may be a sign the computer game is coming apart.
The good news: when Super Geek Girl reboots, you won’t feel a thing. You will just cease to exist, and the universe with you. You won’t even know you are dead.
The bad news: Your Ugg boots that you paid $150 for are never going to arrive.

The news

The butter crisis is explained at http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/dec/14/norwegian-butter-crisis-shortage-christmas
Meanwhile, we offer this quote without elaboration – nothing we say could possibly do justice to the quote: “"I need butter today to make my lussekatt buns and my Christmas biscuits," grumbled one elderly Norwegian."I brought up my four children under German occupation but this is nothing like that."
Theatre of the Absurd 1 The other day we mentioned a report by the EPA that said it had found a case of water contamination caused by fracking. We took it at face value, and concluded yes, contamination will occur if things are not done properly, but that’s no reason to stop. Every day people die in car accidents, we don’t ban cars.
But it turns out that the EPA found contamination because it drilled two wells well past the water level and straight into the natural gas reservoir underneath. So yes, EPA found natural gas, but the gas was where it should be. It also turns out there have been complaints about the water quality in the area since – er – 1880. http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2011/12/14/Tainted-EPA-Report-on-Fracking-Blasted-by-Gas-Co.aspx
Theatre of the Absurd 2 It’s probably not a good idea to read the Washington Post’s Letters to the Editor at 5:30 in the morning, but it can put one in a bit of a grouchy mood and that’s not a nice way to start the day when you have to deal with 150 hormone-charged adolescents with as much control of themselves as starving piranha encountering a drowning person. (Or as much control as the Editor exhibits on seeing a bar of chocolate, if you prefer that analogy.) Today was a doozy.
To explain, US Government has refused permission to pharmacies to sell a post-de-facto birth control pill to girls younger than 17 without parental/guardian permission. We aren’t going to get into the debate about the government’s reasoning. But several self-appointed advocates for the rights of “women” are disappointed. Calling girls younger than 17 – which is to day they are 16 or less – “women” is a little device used to obscure the issue of if society should okay the sale of such contraceptives to the aforesaid girls. Obviously you will not deny a woman the right to decide on contraceptive, whereas you might have problems letting your 8^th Grader or 9^th Grader just walking into CVS by herself and picking the contraceptive off the shelf along with the chewing gum. But: that is another debate altogether.
One person wrote in to say she was disappointed in the Government’s decision. What if a 15-year old girl was raped by her parent/guardian and the police refused to take her seriously? Without anyone over 17 to buy the contraceptive for her, she could get pregnant. If you think we are making this up, go to December 14, 2011’s Washington Post, Letters to the Editor.
This is a great example of how we in America reason. Yes, there is a mathematically finite chance that the scenario could happen. But does that chance offset all the other reasons for not allowing girls under 17 to buy the contraceptive off the shelf? Why can we no longer accept that every decision, every course of action, has pros and cons. It is our job as informed citizens to see where the balance lies. We cannot take extreme scenarios as an excuse to overlook all the cons in this particular case.
If one wants to be absurd, how about this: the contraceptive costs $10-$70. Is it beyond the realm of possibility that the hypothetical 15-year old does not have $10-$70 to pay for the contraceptive? Is this not denying her rights? So should we make this contraceptive free? Now, a 15-year old girl may well have serious emotional reservations about walking into a CVS, picking up this contraceptive in full view of customers and staff, and then walking to the checkout to pay for it. So should we install vending machines in our schools where for a nickel the 15-year old can get the contraceptive? To spare her embarrassment, we’d have to carry the contraceptive in the candy machine labeled as chewing gum. After all, we don’t want someone else seeing her and then splashing the information all over Facebook.

· What we suggest to this letter writer is to calm down for a minute. First, how likely is it the 15-year old does not know a girl over 17 who can get the contraceptive for her? Second, the letter writer has a very strange conception of how the police work. If a 15-year old walked into a station to say she had been raped by her parent/guardian, absolutely the last thing that would happen in real life is the cops rolling on the floor laughing saying “You are such a kidder!”

0230 GMT December 14, 2011

The US-Iraq Divorce is final: Can we move on please? There are parts of the American power elite that are having a nervous breakdown because Iraq has quit us (ha ha) and they can’t get over it. We keep reading criticism of the Administration because Mr. Obama, after he was told Iraq didn’t want us any more, responded with: “Oh, okay then, it’s been real”. We get all sorts of learned analyses saying how important it is the US do this, that, and the other in Iraq, and we have this, that, and the other vital interest that must be secured.
Let’s pull back a bit. Did we or did we not say we invaded Iraq to make it a democratic state? Did we or did we not succeed? And did Iraq, or did Iraq not tell us: “Our Parliament wants you to go now, so goodbye and thanks for the fish”?
So what’s our problem? That the Iranians handed us our papers is absolute proof of our contention that we did not go to Iraq to make it our colony. By withdrawing its troops – as required by Iraq – US has completely, totally, confounded all those who said we had come as occupiers. “Those” included not just a good proportion of Americans, but just about the rest of the world too. We kept our word.
Why now do many people want us to pressure Iraq to let us stay in one way or another? Aside from the unseemly nature of this premise, is it going to occur to any of these characters that we really have no leverage with Iraq? There is nothing we have the Iraqis want badly enough they will compromise their sovereignty.
Weapons? People, people. With the amount of hard cash Iraq throw off every day – something like $120-million – Iraq could give a hoot if we refuse to sell it weapons. Every government is just waiting to get into the game and to supply weapons without strings. American protection? But against whom? Who is threatening Iraq? It isn’t Iran, because Iraq and Iran are natural allies. If this bothers Washington, sorry, but Washington should have figured this out before it overthrew Saddam.
The people who threaten Iraq are America’s friends, starting with the Mideast Sunni regimes. Iraq is deeply threatened by our push to get Assad of Syria out, because Iraq does not want a Sunni-majority regime on yet another border. So unless we’re willing to defend Iraq against our friends, we and the Iraqis have nothing to talk about security wise.
Prevent Iraq from descending into chaos because of sectarianism? Of all the reason we give why we should stay on in Iraq, this has to be the silliest. Hasn’t Washington figured Iraq is quite happy to have an excuse to ethnically cleanse the country of Sunnis? It’s a priority for the Iraqis, payback for four centuries of oppression by the Sunnis. There will be no chaos: the Shias will simply kill those Sunnis who don’t flee. The only way the Sunnis can avoid this fate is to accept they are now going to be the oppressed and not make waves by insisting on their rights.
Further, the “we can’t leave” group in Washington has not been paying to attention to something Iraq is saying. Iraq wants to produce 12-million-barrels/day of oil. And it can, given the time needed to go from 2.5-million to 12-million. At today’s prices, Iraq will take $1-billion every day. And guess what? Iraq will tell us what to do, and not the other way around. We will kiss Iraq butt, just as we kiss Saudi butt, and what’s more, we will insist that Iraqi butt is the best we’ve ever kissed.
Iraq plans on dominating the Middle East – remember that’s was Saddam wanted to do, and just because he’s gone doesn’t mean Iraq doesn’t have its national dreams. Like Persia, Iraq is also the site of ancient empires, and we’d be truly, stupidly blind not to realize this “we will return to the glorious past” business really means something to the Iraqis.
When your spouse tells you to get out, and you don’t have any way to get her/him to change her/his mind, you have two alternatives. One is to rave, rant, threaten, fantasize revenge, develop an exaggerated sense of your importance, make a nuisance of yourself till finally the spouse calls the police to have you removed and gets a restraining order.
The other alternative is to say “Oh, okay, well then, it’s been real” and push off with your dignity intact. President Obama has done a boatload of incredibly stupid things, though even he has not been as dumb as Mr. Bush who got us into two completely pointless wars. In the case of Iraq, however, Mr. Obama is taking the dignified way out. He has no choice. America has no choice. Then you may as well look dignified as you exit.

0230 GMT December 13, 2011

Aviation Week on the US drone http://tinyurl.com/7jnqvmg Apparently no one is panicked.

Iranian MP claims Army will stage exercises to close Hormuz See, it’s not for the world to restrain the Iranians from doing stupid things. If the Iranians think that they can close Hormuz for better than a few weeks or a couple of months at best, then they really don’t understand what they’re up against. It’s not for us to tell them if they close Hormuz, they will be very, very sorry.
All we are willing to say right now is that even during the period Hormuz is closed, six million bbl/day of the 16-million bbl/day will still flow through alt-Saudi/UAE pipelines. In the event the west decides an Iran strike is required, oil stocks will be built up massively above and beyond what they currently are. And no western warships will enter the Gulf till after all threats are removed: that means all Iranian fighter and air defense units, all naval bases, all anti-ship missile installations and so on. As for sinking a supertanker or two in the shipping channels to create serious problems, before an attack on Iran tankers will be sent to port or will clear the Gulf. As for Iran-ported tankers, they will be attacked in the first wave precisely to keep them from sailing.
Anyway. This is not a particularly interesting subject.
Nonetheless, we’d have liked to see a second pipeline across Saudi, another to Yemen (isn’t this being built?) and a rebuilt TAP line Saudi Arabia-Jordan-Lebanon. That would take care of a lot of problems, cost perhaps $4-billion, and require perhaps 24-months on an emergency basis.
We’re assuming these precautions have not been taken because people are figuring Iran will attack Mideast pipelines if war breaks out, but still, that’s not easily done, and $4-billion is a pittance in the larger scheme of things.
By the way someone spoke to us to say that fracking has been going on since 1950s, and on a large-scale in the US since 1960s. We did not know this. It is not a new technology per se and there is a decades-old record available for examination by those who might be concerned about its environmental impact. There is no danger to water supplies providing well casings are properly constructed. The anti crowd will say but that’s the point, accidents can happen. True. They do. All the time. Take airplanes. But we haven’t stopped flying.
Both economics and science policy make a 100% wrong assumption: that people are rational about assessing risk. They are not. It’s not complicated.
Also by the way Iran says it has located a 50-trillion cubic feet natural gas field in the Caspian. We’re confused, though, because the iranins don’t use cubic feet as far as we know. Did the report mean 50-trillion-cubic-meters? http://www.energydelta.org/mainmenu/edi-intelligence-2/our-services/latest-energy-news/iranian-oil-ministry-claims-huge-caspian-gas-find This Iran source also says cubic-feet http://www.payvand.com/news/11/dec/1123.html but 50-trillion cubic-feet while an important find is not a game changer as the Iranians are claiming. Its only 50 Quads, a tenth of world consumption per year in 2008.
The Iranians are just SO clever yesterday they announced they had “drained” the allegedly captured drone of ALL its secrets and are now read to produce the drone themselves.
There are several ways one can take these pronouncements. The first: we are dealing with certified psychiatric cases. Second, the Iranians feel helpless against US weaponry and are just lashing out. Third, this is for domestic consumption.
But if it is for domestic consumption, shouldn’t the government try to present a coherent story? Week One: drone is captured in an “electronic ambush.” Week Two: drone is “drained” of all information. Week Three?? Drone is flying in vast numbers. Is the Iranian public so dumb? We doubt it.
This takes us back to the second possibility, that the Iranians are simply freaked at their helplessness and are just lashing out without thinking.
http://defensenews.com/story.php?i=8541166&c=MID&s=TOP (the report that Iran says it has “drained” the drone is from another source)
US asks for drone back. Huh? Iran says it will sue the US for sending a drone into its airspace. Double huh??? How about US suing Iran over the 1983 Beirut Embassy attack – there’s no limitation on murder. Reagan pulled out of Lebanon, but oddly, no one accused him of being chicken and running away as happened with Clinton when he pulled out of Somalia in 1993. In retrospect, neither withdrawal was a smart move.0230 GMT December 12, 2011.

0230 GMT December 13, 2011

Just saying….

Caution: all figures here are back-of-envelope. You want precision, work out better figures and forward to us. We’re happy to put them up.

World War 2 cost the US $304-billion (http://eh.net/encyclopedia/article/tassava.WWII ) Taxes paid for $137-billion. War bonds raised $205-billion. Even at this time of existential crisis, the US Government did not print money. Tax rates for someone earning as little as $500 (say less than $6000 in today’s money) were 23%. For those earning $1-million and up, rates were 94%. Unemployment by 1945 had fallen to 1.9% of the labor force of 56% of the US population.
Before the Second World War, our national debt was around 45% of GDP. The national debt soared to roughly 120% of the GDP because of the war, but then it steadily came down to less than 40% by about 1973 (we are reading off graphs from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:USDebt.png ) In other words, we did not finance the Cold War, the Korean War, or the Vietnam War by going further into debt as a percentage of GDP
But starting around 1980, our national debt started climbing till now it is 100% of GDP and still climbing. 1980 is when the loveable Ronald Reagan started to cut taxes so that by the time the BushMiester arrived, debt was 60% of GDP. But even BushMiester, after doing his worst in cutting taxes, still managed to push up the national debt to only around 75%. The rest of the damage was done by the Big O.
Now, dear readers, please still the cries of outrage. We are passing no moral judgments here. We are not arguing for or against tax cuts. We are not blaming the Big O, because if you think the recession was bad, imagine what it would have been like if the federal government had cut $2.5-trillion in spending in 3-years.
All we are saying is, that since 1980 we have been spending more money than we have taken in taxes. Whether you chose to balance the budget by raising taxes, or cutting expenditure, or whatever, is entirely your beeswax. (Or, if you have a lipth, your bithneth.)
US direct costs for Afghanistan and Iraq are $1.23-trillion (http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL33110.pdf ). Of course, the “regular” defense budget also kept increasing because stuff like pay/allowances and a good deal of equipment costs came from the regular budget, not the supplementary war spending. Let’s give it $1-trillion, round off, for a total war cost of $2.3-trillion. Back of envelope, make that $3-trillion in today’s money
In terms of today’s money, US national debt in 1980 was $2.5-trillion (dollar is worth 40 cents now, and national debt was $1-trillion in 1980 - http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/histdebt/histdebt_histo4.htm ).
We financed the Afghan and Iraq wars on the national credit card. You can draw your own conclusions as to why. We choose to believe that BushMiester secretly believed the wars to be illegitimate, so he did not ask the American people to pay more by way of taxes.
But at the end of the day (don’t you just love that cliché?) the Bush wars would have brought the national debt to $5.5-trillion.
That leaves us with an interesting situation. In the last ten years, we have tripled the national debt excluding the war costs. That means for ten years we have spent an average of $1-trillion/year on the national credit card.
Now, folks, Editor is not interested in the whys of why this happened. Listening to a drunk why he gets drunk is not particularly edifying, and moreover, no matter what the reason, it doesn’t justify his being a drunk. And listening to a shop-o-holic’s justifying his spending is even more dull and even more pointless. A drunk, after all, can say “I drink because my wife left me for another woman, my kids don’t respect me, and even my dog pees on my slippers to show me what he thinks of me,” and you can still go – at least the first time you hear the story – “There there, you poor fellow.” When a shop-o-holic says he must shop because his wife left him etc, even the first time around you don’t want to hear about it.
If ever we are going to get out of our debt mess, short of a default, we need to understand the problem. Problem the First is we paid for ten years of war on the national credit card when marginal increases in taxes would have covered it, and Problem the Second is then we went haywire on entitlements.
It’s no use our chastising the profligate Greeks and Italians and Spanish and the like, because we are far worse. The Italians at least were running a primary account surplus before the recent Euro crisis, and the Spanish have a debt of 60% of GDP, which is positively Puritan Frugal compared to us.
We have not just been bad, we have been very very bad.
And after being very very bad, we are still to refusing to raise taxes and cut spending. You have a bunch of blithering idiots on one side who say cutting taxes will generate enough money that the national debt wont matter, without explaining how come our tax rates are half of what they were in 1980 and we are in a huge mess. Then on the other side you have a bunch of blitherers who say raise taxes on the rich and that will solve all our problems. They don’t seem to understand taxes have to be raised on EVERYONE, yes, even on the mom with five kids whose husband walked off, AND we have to drastically raise taxes.
Lets try and explain this to the blitherers on both sides. US takes in $2-trillion in income taxes. It spends $1-trillion more than it takes in (it actually spends more than $3-trillion because it takes in social security taxes and pays out social security etc, but $1-trillion is uncovered). If this amount of $1-trillion is to be raised by taxes, the average tax rates in the US will have to go up by 50%. We didn’t say the marginal rate has to go to 50%. We say every single person and every single company has to pay 50% more in taxes than they pay today. Still want taxes to go up?
As for the cut taxes division, say we want to reduce taxes by 50%, so that the government takes in $1-trillion, leaving it $2-trillion short (still excluding social security as “paid for”) That means the economy will have TRIPLE in size to $45-trillion.
Now even in La La Land, is that going to happen? Of course it isn’t going to happen.
So the cut taxes division will say “You misrepresent us. We want a reduction in spending.” Okay, lets run with that. Cut taxes by half, we are $2-trillion short. That is 2/3rds of the federal budget.
If there is anyone outside a handful of purists who says they are prepared to see a 2/3rds cut in federal spending, they are lying so hard it’s not just their pants are on fire, they are spontaneously combusting.
Because $1-trillion in federal government spending does not mean a 2/3rds cut. Take away interest on the debt, somewhere around $300-billion, the government will have $700-billion to spend versus $2.7-trillion today. You will have to cut spending by THREE-QUARTERS.
Still want to cut spending? Okay, then send in your proposed budget that keeps government spending to $700-billion. Factor in that if interest rates go up tomorrow, you’re going to have less than $700-billion to spend.
We’re patiently waiting to hear from the Increase tax how they will manage with a 50% increase in their taxes, and from the cut spending crowd how they will manage with a $700-billion federal budget.

0230 GMT December 11, 2011

We now understand why “intellectual” is a bad word in America: Newtie Newt claims to be an intellectual In most of the world, to call someone “intellectual” is to praise them. In America it’s a word of abuse. We’ve always wondered why. Now thanks to Newtie Poo we understand why.
Newtie says that Palestine is not a country because the territory claiming to be Palestine was part of the Ottoman Turkish Empire. So is it okay to say that Israel is not a country because its territory was part of the Ottoman Empire? Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon are not countries? Germany is not a country? France? Italy? Belgium? Poland? Netherlands? Spain? They were all parts of the Holy Roman Empire. Is the US not a country then? It was part of the British Empire. Ditto Canada, South Africa, Australia/New Zealand and India. Are Pakistan and Bangladesh not countries? They used to be part of India. Etc.
What makes a country a country? Well, one thing is that it should be recognized as a country. Thus, the Turkish Republic of North Cyprus is not reckoned a country because precisely two countries recognize it, including Turkey. So maybe Newtie meant that the US doesn’t recognize Palestine as a country so it isn’t a country?
See, folks, most Americans are not intellectuals so it’s perfectly okay they don’t know that 95 countries recognize Palestine as a country, and it’s not a UN member because the US has said it will veto any such recognition by the UN, and it doesn’t have control over its own territory because one part is occupied by Israel and the other part is blockaded by Israel. . But Newtie claims he is an intellectual – and a historian at that, la de da. He should know that about Palestine.
But – wethinks – perhaps we demand too much of the Newt? A man who can move to impeach the President of the US for having an affair while he himself is having an affair, a man who can take $1-$2 million from federal organizations he claims are blood suckers on the American polity, and a man who says he never lobbied anyone, people handed over $100-million to him for his thoughts on history, such a man is a little – er – special.
If it is true that Fannie Mae et al gave Newtie public money to get his view on history, we think it really is time Fannie et el were abolished. Because they have to be really, really special to think Newt knows history.
And folks, a favor: please don’t ever, ever make the mistake again of calling the Editor an intellectual. If you do, he will have no choice but to unleash the nuclear option – he will call you a Newt.
Japanese on their defense: Blah blah blah blah blah Can a document such as a White Paper on defense incite the reader to violence? Yes, if it is the Japanese White Paper on Defense 2011. Updating our CWA Japan entry today we went through this 196 page document which frankly is not worth the paper it must have used. It is a masterpiece of saying nothing in too many words. We thought the Japanese were the Masters of Minimalism? Say Less, Mean More, that sort of thing? Apparently not in the matter of defense white papers. The whole thing is a masterpiece – of excuses. Recognizing the rise of China, the Japanese have decided to reorganize the words they speak without spending a yen more than GDP growth. Which is about as close to zero as you can get.
The Japanese say they will reorganize to lighten their army and give it more mobility to better meet a Chinese threat. Are we supposed to believe the Chinese can get to Japan faster than Japanese army formations get to their battle stations, requiring making them lighter and more mobile? We thought fads were the province of the US Army. Apparently we were wrong. The major Japanese ground forces program is a Stryker equivalent with around a 105mm gun. For this the Japanese are going to not replace hundreds of obsolete tanks with their super-hard and super-advanced T-10. Too expensive, apparently. How $12-million for a tank capable of meeting threats to 2020, for a country with a $6-trillion GDP, is not explained.
The Chinese will have fun and giggles blowing up the Japanese Stryker equivalents and thanking their luck they don’t have to face T-10s. Or do we have it wrong and the Japanese are demonstrating only their well-known consideration for honored guests? “Welcome to Japan, and we don’t want to hurt your feelings by making our armor too difficult to destroy. Fire away, and enjoy your stay in Japan!”
Letter on Apple manufacturing its electronics in China as opposed to the US (November 29, 2011) I have comment on your Nov 29th posting regarding building of electronics e.g -IPads in the USA I have some experience with manufacture and the situation is not quite as simple as saving $8 of Chinese labor. The short summary is the manufacturing capability for this type of device (iPad) is not present in the USA. It is not an issue of adding a few $ per tablet. Issue is billions of dollars for factories and then years to train workforce and develop engineering ecosystem.
Random article that explains some of it poorly http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2011/08/17/why-amazon-cant-make-a-kindle-in-the-usa/ Yes some companies assemble in the USA but semiconductors all from China. Even in weapon systems. You see parallels in US car production. The USA invented automotive mass production. Toyota improved it after world war 2 to the extent where they were far in advance of the US (Just in Time system and Toyota Production System). US manufacturers saw this, sent people to Japan to learn it, invited Japanese to America to teach it, and still it took years to build the US car industry into the powerhouse it is today. This is not criticism of USA. There are many fields in which USA leads the world. However tablet and semiconductor manufacture is not one of them. It wpuld l require government subsidy to enable the companies to remain profitable while they built a new manufacturing base in the USA. In my opinion, cannot really blame Apple or Amazon etc.
Editor’s comment Our reader’s argument is absolutely correct. But why is it the US no longer has a manufacturing base capable of making electronics or power generating turbines or batteries or solar panels or oil pipelines? It’s because American capitalists have been single-minded in shipping US manufacturing to China. If Mr. Jobs (now thankfully dead) and Mr. Bozo (unhappily alive) had any thought for the country which has enabled them to become billionaires, they would figure out how to give jobs to Americans, instead of giving excuses a la Forbes.
Are we being idealistic? Perhaps. But how do Apple and Amazon expect Americans to buy their products when they are complicit in shipping jobs overseas so that Americans either have no jobs, or – for the great majority of Americans who work in the pathetically paid services sectors – make marginal livings?
We have a suggestion for the Bozos and the Wal *arts of America. Please apply for Chinese passports and go live in the Middle Kingdom. After all, that’s your spiritual home. And anyway, give it 10-15 years and China will be a bigger market than the US. By then American wages will have been driven down to the point Chinese companies will buy up America and get their goods produced here because we’ll be the Third World. We’ll be making I-Phones and I-Pads for export to China! Hahahahaha!
Nie How Ma, Dude?
From Richard Thatcher Herr Rikhye has advocated a combination of spending cuts combined with tax increases to get a “grip” on our (the United States) debt. In my view even if this were done it would merely delay the inevitable which is full default. In most respects the sooner this occurs the better on the grounds that the longer this is delayed the worse things will get and longer the following “hangover” will be. The “crash” will not be pretty by any means. During the height of the 1930s Depression some 1000 homes and properties were being foreclosed on per DAY! Taking the midpoint, 1935, as a population “average” which was 127.25 million one can only wonder what, with close to 310 million today, what that rate will be like when this default “hits”. Again, I see this default as inevitable, economics, no matter “twisted” will assert itself and our resulting “crash will be a rough one that will, very likely, make the 1930s look quite mild by comparison. For those that worry about what others think of the US pretty much everyone will blame us for the resulting worldwide recession (depression?) and there will be more than some justice in that as we have known for decades that if we didn’t get a grip on things financial; we haven’t and the Piper WILL be paid.
PS: Mister Rikhye has stated a number of times that when default occurs that he will be one of many made homeless as a result; I see the same thing happening to myself. I don’t like it but I’m not getting any real choice in the issue.

0230 GMT December 10, 2011

The Iranians have an RQ-170. No they don’t . Right after a bunch of people said that the Iranian did indeed have an RQ-170, a bunch of people are saying no they don’t. Apparently the pictures the Iranians have shown are inconsistent. The matter is not helped by noone in the public actually having got a good look at an RQ-170.
What we thought were the exhaust for the engine turn out to be bumps on the wings that likely contain equipment. Nothing to do with the engines, so it doesn’t matter if they’re 20-cm or whatever across.
Good energy news from China The US Energy Information Administration says that China may have 1, 275-trillion cubic feet of gas, versus US 875-trillion. The Chinese have started to explore their shale gas http://torontostar.morningstar.ca/globalhome/industry/news.asp?articleid=449633 Since they lack the pipeline infrastructure its not as if they’re going to see the gas tomorrow. But anything that reduces China’s dependence on imported hydrocarbons is good because it will push down the cost of oil.
Bad news on the US fracking front The US EPA says it looks like one well has contaminated groundwater. Now, normally, no one should be freaking because one well, or ten, or even 100 create leaks. The existence of humans on the planet creates contamination, and whatever damage there is from fracking has to be orders of magnitude less than created by coal and oil mining, which contaminates waters like crazy.. The news is bad because the environmental purists are now going to go made and double efforts to stop fracking.
Editor is all for the environment and has said if that means we have to reduce our standard of living to protect the environment, he’s all for it. At the same time, folks, there’s worse things than contaminated water. Your drinking water can be purified at far less cost than the energy foregone from not fracking.
But then in every field of human endeavor, be its schools or medical care or transport or consumer safety or whatever we Americans have lost any balance on cost-benefit ratios. We are absolutists and OUR CAUSE IS THE MOST IMPORTANT. We say again: you wanna protect the environment, figure out how to reduce the world’s population to ten million in 200 years. Mother nature will look after the rest.
By the way, how is this for a crazy enviro mom? We read in the Washington Post about this one mom who says she will not allow her kids to walks outside a bird sanctuary or under the path of a jetliner because who know what bugs poisons they are exposed to. We wonder if this mom realizes that the great cause of death on earth is – life. Once you’re born, 100% for sure you are going to die no matter what you do. Guaranteed. The only way to keep your kids absolutely safe is not to have them in the first place. Which will help bring down the earth’s population if enough people think along the same lines.
So what do you think, people? Time to float a 503c or whatever they are called, a website, a lobbying group and so on built around the theme: “Avoid Life. It leads to 100% mortality”?
All that’s left for the Iron Chancellor is the triumphal parade through the Arc d’Triomphe All except UK and three EU nations have said they agree to Germany’s terms. The three have said they have to submit the matter to their parliaments. This is a pointless exercise except for giving their politicians cover because if they say “no” they will be chucked out of the club. Hungary is already saying it is likely to sign. And Sweden and the Czechs say they’ll likely sign too. As for UK, Merkel is not bothered. Today Europe, tomorrow she’ll worry about the UK. Actually, she will never worry about the UK. She just doesn’t care enough to bother.
There is a warning in UK’s situation that the US would do well to heed. Sixty years ago people could agree the sun was setting on the British Empire. But could anyone have even dreamed that the UK would become as irrelevant as it has today? We don’t think so. So, my fellow Americans, by all means keep whistling in the dark and assuring yourself all is well. But all means, Mr. Romney, tell people that America is entering a new golden age. But the world has no interest in what people say. It is concerned solely with the realities of power. And the USSR learned, if you don’t have economic power, you don’t count. All the USSR’s mighty military power could not save it from collapse and irrelevancy.
By the way, guess who has the best debt:GDP ratio in the EU? Estonia. Six percent. Estonia just did not start down the debt road so right now its golden. Now we know you’re saying well, Estonia’s economy is the size of Montgomery County, Maryland, or whatever the equivalent county is in your part of the US of A, but that isn’t the point. The Estonians took a decision after independence, twenty years ago, that they weren’t going to get into debt, and they didn’t. There was no good reason for us to get into debt after paying off the World War II debt (if we had done that). We CHOSE to get into this mess. No one forced us.
We’re going to say something that is going to get our liberal readers angry But look, people, no one has a monopoly on wisdom, except the Editor’s Teddy Bears, and they are so wise they don’t say a word about how people should lead their lives. On this the conservatives have a valid point: agreed that a whole lot of the country barely makes do, but if people weren’t so ready to have kids out of wedlock or to divorce, a whole lot of this country would be more economically secure. You can’t have the rest of society pay for the wrong judgments and choices made by others.
So what are we saying here? That parents who father/mother children and then run away or don’t make enough money to send for their kids should be publically executed? Yes, that is exactly what we are saying. A human who brings children into this world and then doesn’t do everything to look after them doesn’t deserve to live as far as we are concerned. But what about people in bad marriages? Should they be forced to stay together so they have economic security? No, we aren’t saying that. But if you get married and then decide you’ve made a mistake and can’t look after yourself, why do Jane Q and Joe Q have to pay taxes to look after you? But what if your spouse is abusive, beats you, drinks and drugs like the fish of the sea and so on? Well, your bad luck and sorry about that. Its not the job of the state to make things right for you. You figure it out. No one said life is easy. As the philosopher said: “Life’s a b**** and then you die.”
That’s about it, folks. A few decades ago no one would have quarreled with the philosopher. No one thought they were entitled to anything – and especially not at someone else’s expense. The Irish still think that way, which as far as we are concerned, makes them a good deal more moral than your average American.

0230 GMT December 9, 2011

“Where does the time go?” trilled Joni Mitchell and that’s what happened today. We forgot we hadn’t updated, and were redoing several Concise World Army files lost in the computer crash. We though all document files were backed up by Mozy Back Up, but the free version only does the files in “My Documents” so we lost a lot of countries update. The external hard drive where backups are supposed to go had a loose connection so we did not know nothing was backing up there. Anyway, only a very short update tonight, with apologies.

The Washington Game: “I am a bigger idiot than you” – “I protest, sirrah! I am a bigger idiot than you” So first you have one bunch of braying idiots, the Democrats, who want to cut payroll taxes so they can get votes. Never mind that cutting payroll taxes means more trouble down the road for social security and is a really bad idea. Then you have another bunch of braying idiots, the Republicans, who have never met a tax cut they didn’t make them swoon, determined that this one should not go through because they don’t want the Dems to get votes. That’s not the idiot part we are concerned with. It’s when the GOP says that this particular tax cut will not generate jobs that you have to go “Uh oh, someone is not taking their meds again.” So only a tax cut passed by the GOP creates jobs? BTW, has the GOP ever been able to conclusively show that tax cuts at the upper income levels generate jobs or is that more whistling through the wrong orifice? And has the GOP bothered to explain how people with more money are going to create jobs when there is no demand for the goods those jobs will produce because people are broke or without jobs or too scared to spend? Remember, the corporations are sitting on $3-trillion at home and abroad, cash. There is no shortage of capital to create jobs. The day they see demand, they’ll create those jobs. So what is the GOP proposal to get the U3 rate down to 4%? And what, when the government taxes money from you, it disappears into a black hole? Gee, color us stupid, but we thought government spending ALSO created jobs.
Sure, there are jobs the government does not do well at. But there are jobs the private sector doesn’t do well at either. The idea is for the private sector to do what it does best, and the government to do what it does best, not for the government to take all your money (communism) or for the private sector to do everything for a profit (don’t know what that economic system is called – it wasn’t covered by the Editor’s political economy class when he was in college. Correction: when he was enrolled in college. He was seldom actually in college, if you get his drift. Too much wine and too much song, if you see what he’s saying. Which is a bit odd in Walrus and Carpenter style, because the Editor neither drank nor sang and still doesn’t. Ah, the mysteries of the universe.
So the Iranians have shown a foto of the RQ-170 and US “sources” are screaming “Yes! Yes! They have the RQ-170! We are doomed!” Dunno, to us the thing looks like a clay model and are the engine outlets really only around 20-centimeters across. But okay, say they really have it, so what? The trick with stealth is the manufacturing technology and the computer modeling. Sure it’s nice to have one, but that doesn’t mean Iran is going to start making stealth drones. As for China, they’re busy stealing everything including the secret formula for the CIA Chief’s special toilet paper. Don’t worry, people, be happy.
Reader Chris Raggio sent us an article that says the President was given three options, including an air strike and a special force expedition to either blow up the drone or recover it, and he said he didn’t want to do any option because it could be construed as an act of war.
Possibility A: This report is fabricated. If the Prez was given the option, the US knew where the drone was. Since the Iranians didn’t get to it till some days later, whacking the drone from the air could hardly be construed as an act of war. What, the Iranians arrive at the scene, see a piece of machinery in Lego-sized pieces, and start screaming: “Its war! We have been attacked! The dastardly Americans have destroyed their own drone!”
Possibility B: The report is true and the people who decide things in Washington DC are seven short of a six-pack. Hello, people, are we not at war with Iran already?
Without further evidence, right now we go for Option A. Prez has shown no hesitation in using clandestine force. Was the raid to kill OBL not an attack on Pakistan? Are the strikes against Al-Shabab not an attack on Somalia? That doesn’t bother him, why would destroying US property that touched the sacred soil of Iran bother him?
Possibility C: The report is true, but Prez’s advisors told him “The enemy isn’t going to get anything worthwhile from the drone, it’s not worth the effort or the bother to whack it.”

0230 GMT December 8, 2011

Another exciting day at the ranch. For sheer excitement, nothing beats entering into Google search “Yemen Army 1^st Brigade” and then continuing to 401. That last number is the highest brigade number we’ve seen so we stopped there. There may be more. Before the Arab Spring hit Yemen, there was little publically available about its brigade numbers. For the last several months people have been furiously blogging and tweeting and so on. Of course, it’s not as simple as just entering the search time and seeing if something pops up. You still have to go through several entries for each number. If there is a point to all this, please do write; Editor would love to know.

Hello global government Like it or not, global government has arrived, and it’s called the Global Financial System. It pulls down governments who don’t do what the GFS wants. It tells countries how they are to run their economies. It’s responsible to no one. US has so far escaped the worst of the GFS government because, after all, US is the world’s reserve currency. But in a few years down the line, US economic power, already diluted, will start fading. Correspondingly, the GFS’s orders to the US economy will start increasing. GFS will NOT accept the current 100% debt to GDP ratio, slated to go higher. As it is doing in Europe, it will insist US raise taxes and cut spending, even if it pushes US into years of recession. If US refuses to comply, GFS will push the interest rates on US bonds so high US will not be able to borrow.
Don’t laugh: this has already happened to Italy and Spain. Italy was running a primary current account surplus, but GFS wasn’t happy. Spain has been pretty responsible about its borrowing, but not good enough for the GFS. The Greek, Italian, and Spanish governments have fallen or changed, all three countries are in recession or heading for it. GFS does not care. It does what it feels best to protect its money.
US played possibly the major role in creating the GFS. It’s going to turn around and bite the US’s butt – not the next years, perhaps not even for five years or more. Buts it’s going to happen. The US members of the GFS won’t be the least upset. It’s all the economic geniuses that told us globalization was good for us and the fewer restraints on international money flows, and all of us who bought these false doctrines who are going to pay the price.
Even the Great Merkel has had to bow to the GFS. Remember Merkel helped push through the Greek haircut? Her point was governments should not have to indemnify the money lenders for their bad decisions. Anyone notice that no one is mentioning haircuts for Irish and Italian debt? No, because the GFS has recovered from the panic that led it to agree to the Greek haircut. There aren’t going to be any more. According to the GFS the function of government is to help it make more money, and to force people to pay for the money they borrowed.
Just By The Way: It’s Not True American Capitalism Has Failed as many liberals are now saying. American capitalism has created tens of millions of jobs in the last 20 years. Why, Apple alone probably created a million new jobs.
Too bad the jobs are all overseas. But if you believe in global capitalism, where does it say American capitalism has to create the jobs in America?
So long, suckers. The 1/100^th of 1% is laughing all the way to their bank. (Their bank and not the bank because the 1/100^th of 1% owns the banks
So here’s a provocative thesis: Is there a correlation between crime and Gini coefficients? The Gini Coefficient measures national income inequality. The higher the Gini, the more inequality; the lower the Gini, the more financial equality.
An enduring liberal thesis is that people turn to crime, anti-social behavior, rioting, etc because of the gap between the rich and the poor. Coming from India where there is a whacking great gap between the middle class (forget the rich) and the poor, this thesis has never made sense to us, because according to this thesis, India should be submerged in violence, and it isn’t. [Editor has never liked the theory that American children from poor families do badly in school because the families are poor. In India the poor make every sacrifice to make sure their children get educated. They correctly see education as a way out of poverty and will do anything for their children’s education. And woe will befall the child from a poor background at the hands of the parents if s/he misbehaves in school or doesn’t do the homework and so on.]
Now a British fellow of the Manhattan Institute has written an analysis on the British riots last summer http://www.city-journal.org/printable.php?id=7544 This is not an easy article to read, but its provoking. It questions the thesis that income inequality leads to crime. If you have the time, it’s worth reading.
X-37 gets more weird Reader Richard Thatcher writes to say that apparently the X-37B mini space shuttle has been playing hide and seek with ground based astronomers, likely as part of its testing. And now there’s a C version planned, which will have twice the volume.
Is the RQ-170 loss over Iran THAT serious? A provocative article http://aviationintel.com/?p=4164 argues it may not be. The article says that drone are lost all the time, implying it would be silly of the US to fly something over hostile territory if it were not prepared to lose the vehicle.

0230 GMT December 7, 2011

70^th anniversary of Pearl Harbor. We’d like to disabuse, if we can, the notion that FDR let the Japanese attack Pearl Harbor as an excuse for bringing the US into the war. Even had the Japanese not attacked Pearl, their attack on the Philippines would have led to a war with the US. Please to notice FDR did not declare war on Germany. He may have wanted to, to help Britain, but the American people were pretty isolationist and did not want to involve themselves in a European War. It was Hitler’s folly in declaring war against the US that led to the US intervention in Europe

One thing we should all be able to agree on without being accused of revisionism. Knowing that putting embargos on Japan would cripple its economy, US either should have thought ten times over before taking actions which – if someone had taken against us would 100% have led to war – forced the Japanese to attack. Alternatively, US should have been prepared for the consequences of its anti-Japan actions. The last thing the US should have done is stick a dozen sticks in the Japanese hive and then fail to be prepared for war. Yes, if FDR had told the American people sanctions against Japan would lead to war they may well have said forget about China. That’s the way democracy works, like it or not.

Should the US have intervened against Japan for China? Two things. It’s easy to forget that till the communists took over China, US and China had a close relationship. And considering the horrible atrocities the Japanese were committing, it was morally right for US to intervene. Simultaneously the US should have heavily reinforced the Pacific and been ready for war. If FDR though the American people wouldn’t go for this, we repeat, then morally right or not, he shouldn’t have acted against Japan.

What were some of the US’s actions against Japan? Oil, iron, and steel were embargoed. Japanese assets were frozen. The Dutch and the British followed suit at least on the oil. So what were the Japanese supposed to do except to go to war? None of this to justify what the Japanese were doing in China.

It’s fine for the Japanese to say to the west “You all built your colonial empire and reaped the benefits, why aren’t we being allowed to do the same thing?” First, this was the 1930s and not the 19^th Century. People’s ideas on what was acceptable behavior toward the natives had changed. Second, the only colonial power who remotely approached the Japanese brutality against China was Leopold of Belgium with his genocide in the Congo. Remember the Europeans, in the early 20^th Century, were so aghast at Leopold that they collectively threatened intervention. The Congo was taken away from him (it was his personal estate) and made the responsibility of the Belgian Parliament. Even here, Leopold’s genocide came in the form of treating labor very badly so that hundreds of thousands died due to malnourishment, maltreatment and the like. Leopold was not having his soldiers bayonet Congo men, women, and children for sport or as a way of making his soldiers ruthless. Of course, then Hitler had to come along and make the Japanese look like hypersensitive protectors of human rights.

The more things change the more they remain the same, say the French. We’re a bit surprised that more people don’t see parallels between FDR 1941 and W Jr. 2001. In both case, the men’s hearts were in the right place. But when it came to thinking before acting, FDR and W Jr. had a lot in common. This is the curse of humanity. Just as every generation of children have to make the mistakes of their parents, countries have to keep making the same mistakes again and again. It’s just the way it is. It cannot be changed. Editor will not be around in 2071, but he can say with full confidence a US president will do something so stupid and so costly that people for years will be trying to find conspiracies and plots because they will refuse to believe people can be so monumentally stupid.

Iran US says Iran does have an RQ-170, and likely in good shape as the drone is programmed to find a place to land if it gets into trouble. So we do have a problem, unless the US cleverly sent over a giant flying rubber duckie with RB-170 stenciled on its side as a way of misleading the Iranians. We’d like to ask if the Flying Rubber Duckie – sorry, we meant the RB-170 – is so smart why isn’t it programed to return to its base?
Speaking of drones wired magazine says the Army and Marines are working on putting mini-munitions – 12-lbs – on the same drones these services use at battalion level. Interesting.
OWS Washington’s misstep People have the right to protest peacefully and the Washington authorities have gone out of their way to accommodate and coexist with the Occupy Washington lot. There was absolutely no call for some of the Occupiers to start verbally abusing the law enforcement people when the latter took down a wooden semi-permanent structure the Occupiers were erecting. The officer on the street is as much part of the 99% as the Occupiers. But s/he has to do what they’re told or they get disciplined. It was not the idea or initiative of the officers on the street to take down the structure. That was the Interior Secretary’s orders. It is immoral in every sense to take out your anger on people who’ve been doing their level best to let you do your thing.
Occupy Washington owes an apology to the Washington law enforcement officers.
Snacker Supreme There’s a black hole out there with the mass of 22-billion suns. Frankly it does not seem right to us that this super hungry monster is possibly destroying thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands, of civilizations just to gratify its ego. Like the 101^st Dalmatian who was always hungry, this fellow seems to have no concept of appropriate behavior. We bet it gives nasty burps each time it downs a star system.
There may, however, be a cosmic purpose behind these giant destruction factories. We’ve been slowly, painfully, trying to get through Roger Penrose’s new book on cyclic universes, about a page a week. What Penrose thinks is writing for the lay public and what the lay public can comprehend are two different things. If we have his main idea right, it seems that once the entire universe is chewed up by black holes, the last Redskins football fiasco witnessed, the last beer quaffed, and the last star scarfed like just another Cheez Doodle, black holes regurgitate all the matter they’ve ingested, sort of like a giant cosmic Roman orgy, and the universe is reborn.
If we’ve understood Penrose’s point, and if he is right, then okay, perhaps these fellows do serve a purpose.
Mind you, Penrose is saying some really weird stuff, such as that entropy does not keep increasing. Inside a black hole it decreases, and you have to have that if you’re going to get a cyclic universe.
Reader Richard Thatcher made the point to us this sort of stuff is far more interesting than the stupid euro and the equally stupid dollar and all the horrible mundanities with which we trap ourselves. We were reading an article on Einstein, and apparently in his day he was a pop super star for the masses. People used to wait for his latest pronouncements which used to be headline news. How did we get to the stage where Angela’s latest news – she has spent time visiting Brad’s family and they piled on about it was time to make an honest man of him – is of greater importance than the cosmology news? Don’t want to sound elitist and all that, but maybe its as well there are black holes to put a stop to this deterioration in our mind.
Today we read that 50% of kids want an I-pad for Christmas; 30% want an I-phone; and 20% want an I-pod, or something like that, which adds up to 100% of the kids in America wanting an I-gadget. Is this something we should be proud of or should it cause us to worry?

0230 GMT December 6, 2011

Germany Uber Alles Chancellor Merkel rammed her tough conditions for saving the Eurozone down Europe’s throat, including France’s. Merkel was insisting the price of her help was Euro nations lived with a 3% budget deficit or faced sanctions. Right now everyone has to vote for sanctions. In the new dispensation, agreed to by France, the sanctions will be automatic. Merkel first rubbed everyone’s nose in the mess while whacking their behinds, sort of like you housetrain a puppy. Then graciously she allowed the European Court of Justice would decide who has broken the 3% deficit rule.
So do we expect that the crisis is over and that Germany will now agree to various bailouts? Germany is not quite there because the other nations have to sign on to this agreement. Will they dare refuse? Well, this female reincarnation of another German Iron Chancellor, Bismarck, has conclusively shown it’s her way or the – er – path less travelled. If they don’t sign, they will not get bailed out and that’s that.
Britain may now want a renegotiation of the European treaties. Rage was running pretty high against the EU even before this Euro thing happened. Britain has to assert itself or accept it will be bulldozed by the Germans, and it’s not about to accept the latter. In our opinion, though, Britain is a side show; Merkel made it clear she had no time for Britain – or for US financial advice.
So this is more of a reprieve than a done deal. But note that Italy has already reaped the benefits of being Merkelized: it announced even more austerity, making it more likely it will be bailed out, and the interest rate on 2-year bonds plummeted. People may march in the streets, but ultimately all their choices are bad, and agreeing to Merkel-strength austerity may be the least bad choice.
Iran Hey guys, don’t Bogart that joint – pass it on to us. Took control of a US drone and forced it into Iran? Lot of inhaling and no exhaling going on here. If the Iranians did that, how come it took them a week to announce it, and why did they have to shoot down the drone as they claimed?
At this point several things are not really clear First, does Iran have its grubby paws on a US drone of any sort? The media assumption is that it does, but till pictures are shown, we’d hold our horses. Next, is the advanced stealth RQ-170? Again, the assumption is it is, but that’s based on backward reasoning: If US is flying a drone over Iran it has to be the advanced stealth beat because Afghanistan opposition has no radars so there’s no need to fly it over Afghanistan. But was the US flying it over Iran, or was it on an Afghan mission and kind of putt-putted into the sunset? (You do realize there is a children’s book and inspirational movie in all this: the poor drone, forced to work day-and-night by the cruel military, manages to break free due a momentary lapse of control and makes a run for freedom. Of course, the problem with this plot is what sort of freedom is it going to have seeing as its smashed into bits in Iran. You can’t impress lady drones if you can’t – er – get it up. We mean get it up in the air, you dirty-minded readers.)
If Iran does have a RQ-170, then regardless of what the US says, it’s a setback. Maybe not so with regard to the sensor package, which some people are saying is an old version now replaced by a very much more advanced one. But still, China and Russia get to take close looks at another US stealth product.
If it is an RQ-170, we’re wondering why the US didn’t pulverize it with a cruise or even an airstrike. You could argue (a) it wasn’t that important to bother with; or (b) US itself didn’t know where it was. Finding things in mountains can be quite hard.
Also please to note Iran said almost a year ago it shot down a US drone lurking near a nuclear facility, but it has still to put it on display or post pictures. US denied that one.
Kepler makes it Strike Three The telescope has found a third blue planet, 600 light years away. It has a G5 star, like we do, and has a temperature of 72F (22C). The planet, Kepler 22b, is 2.5-times the size of earth.
For the last three years Kepler has been watching 150,000 stars between Cygnus and Lyra. When last the Kepler team made an announcement, in February, the telescope had found 1300 candidates for life. Now the number is 2300.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn21243-smallest-habitable-world-around-sunlike-star-found.html
Another very simple explanation of why we are in an economic mess Robert Samuelson writing in the Washington Post says that from 1820 onward 2% annual economic growth was normal. In the 1960s and 1970s it became 4%. Assuming that the Good Times were Going To Roll Forever, governments went all-in for the welfare state. But growth has returned to 2%, and we cannot afford the welfare state. End of the story.
What could be simpler than this?

0230 GMT December 5, 2011

United Russia may end up with 50% of the vote So far we haven’t seen what this means in terms of Duma seats. In the parliamentary system a party can get less than 50% and still end with a majority of seats. The Communists have made a strong showing; according to some estimates they have doubled their votes. Looks like the Russian people have finally had it with corruption and the oligarchs, which was really the main issue in the election.
Oil will go to $250/barrel if Iran is embargoed, says Teheran You see, we all have fantasies. This $250 figure was thought up by American speculators in oil futures as a possibility should Hormuz be closed, and it was a self-serving estimate, not based on reality. Iran has picked up that figure without thinking things through, as a threat should the west embargo Iranian oil. But there is no basis to that figure simply because if the price of something rises, its use declines. That brings down the price. This is one reason people like the Saudis don’t want oil to go much higher than $80, because they’ve seen before energy substitution starts taking place. Of course, right now there is a huge speculative premium in the current price of $100. We mentioned the other day that the chief of Chevron said he thought speculation had added $35 to the price.
Besides which, the west is not thinking of embargoing Iranian oil in the usual sense of an embargo. West will simply stop direct purchases. Since Iran has to sell its oil, the thinking goes, non-embargoing parties like China, India etc will be able to negotiate discounts. Iran will be hurt; the oil will still get to the market.
We are not oil economists and we are not vouching for the accuracy of any of this thinking, but we have been told by People Who Know that the maximum oil can go for is $150 before the market collapses – as happened in 2008
Merkel, Germany, and the Euro Because of the Internet, anyone can say what they want, and on Chancellor Merkel we’re quite astonished at how many insist neither she nor Germany realizes how serious the Euro problem is. We beg to differ. The Germans are perfectly aware that their hardball tactics can go either of two ways. One, the problem Euro nations bring down their deficits and start paying off their debts, which will cause recessions – this is already happening. Two, the problem nations default.
Germany is ready for either eventuality. The Germans do not care one hoot that the over-borrowed Euro nations will suffer. The Germans have gone through ten years of restructuring their economy. They suffered, and for any other nation to say “you’re making us suffer” cuts no ice with the Germans.
Should the over-borrowed nations default, the Germans will fall back on their core Euro zone, and they’ll take the banking losses default entails. Won’t be pretty, but there is just no way you are going to get the Germans to accept bailouts.
Now, it is argued that the prime beneficiaries of the Euro have been the Germans, because it has allowed them to export huge amounts to other Euro nations. If the Eurozone shrinks, or breaks up, people say the German mark will be so strong Germany will not be able to export as much. A rate of 1.8 DM per dollar is mentioned.
First, the Germans can live with that rate – it was higher before they went into the Euro. Second, if it is a choice between two bad alternatives, as we’ve said, the Germans will choose the path that requires no bailouts except on German terms.
We wouldn’t get too excited about the exchange rate. Remember, Germany is also a major importing nation. If the hypothetical future DM is strong, the price of all imports, including energy, raw materials, food, semi-manufactures etc. falls. This mitigates the effect of a strong currency on exports.
Another reason not to get excited is Japan. Remember when Japan’s yen was 360 to the US dollar? Well, its 75 now, and while the Japanese are screaming (in their quiet, polite way), they’re managing. That is a huge, huge revaluation. Sure the Japanese are paying a price. But no one is suggestion that Germany will be caught in anything like the same magnitude of revaluation.
China becomes Number 1 CO2 emitter Congratulations, China. Of course, US still leads China 4-to-1 in per capita emissions.
Oklahoma Gas Exploration Leases become 100-times more expensive Readers will be familiar with the natural gas boom that is changing the economies of states like North Dakota. Oklahoma is another place where the boom is exploding. Leases for a single acre have shot up from $200 to $20,000 – royalties if gas is found are extra.

0230 GMT December 4, 2011

Pakistan Border Post Attack On anything to do with US-Pakistan relations in “AfPak” as the in-people like to call it, Editor’s first reaction is to go “Not tonight, my dear, I have a headache”. Sorting out the “US says Pakistan says” is less productive than trying to write all the zeroes in a googolplex. And likely one will get to write all those zeroes before one determines the truth of such incidents.
Nonetheless, here’s more headache-inducing news about the recent incident. First, Pakistan says it immediately warned NATO that its border post was under attack. But Pakistani communications were not good enough to get aircraft scrambled to warn off the attackers, who had the outpost under fire for two hours according to Pakistan. Seems a bit peculiar on the face of it, that Pakistan’s communications with NATO are better than within its own forces and in its own country.
Second, Pakistan has refused to participate in an enquiry being launched by NATO. Also sounds very peculiar.
Third, Wall Street Journal on Thursday December 1 ran an article saying the Pakistani troops were not at the declared outpost, but at a temporary outpost which was not on the map.
Fourth, NATO says Pakistan cleared the airstrike, implying Pakistan did not know where its troops were. But Pakistan says NATO gave the wrong coordinates for where it was going to attack.
If, dear reader, you don’t have a headache by now, you’re made of sterner stuff than the Editor.
And then there were two One GOP candidate is the Klasse Klowne and one is a screaming bore. The GOP’s penchant for shooting itself in its head six times in one go is now in full evidence. Our advice to the GOP is: do what people say you should do if you’re being sexually assaulted. Lie back and think of England in winter.
Oh, sorry, we got that mixed up. Thinking of England in winter is when you’re having sex with your significant Other. Lying back and enjoying it is what you’re supposed to do when you’re being assaulted. We know what some readers are thinking: “Sure, just go blame the victim for the attack.” In this case, however, if we’re not going to blame the GOP for the situation, who do we blame? Or is it Obama’s fault the GOP presidential lineup is just so weird?
There is simply no point any more to following the 2012 election.
Letter to the Editor from Name-Withheld-By Request You blasted American generals for their incompetence in Afghanistan. Yet in your own country, India, your generals took twenty-five years and 600,000 troops to defeat 5000 insurgents. So who are you calling incompetent?
Editor’s response Dear me. If the Editor has ever said one nice thing about his country’s higher defense leadership, it must have been while the Real Editor was under abduction by aliens and the Fake Editor was writing this blog. The Real Editor has never said one single positive thing about his country’s higher defense leadership – ever. That’s in 41 years of writing about Indian defense. Please to show Real Editor any other analyst in the world who has been so consistently consistent.
Next, let’s have a few facts please. India never had 600,000 troops fighting insurgents in Jammu and Kashmir. The figure was at peak 150,000 troops and the same number of police/paramilitary. If you count allied forces in Afghanistan in the same manner, including contractors who are doing jobs that used to be done by the military, you have half-a-million NATO/Afghans/Contractors. The US performance in Afghanistan is even more pathetic than we made it in our blog entry because we left out the Afghans.
Because India was fighting on its own territory, it had to operate under rules of engagement so restrictive no American officer of any rank would agree to them. No air support. No artillery. No heavy weapons. (Yes, all this was used on occasion – very rare occasion – when India cornered a large enough body of insurgents in terrain away from villages.) India had just a few helicopters, and it had absolutely nothing like the vast American C4I network. No drones. No technical reconnaissance. No fancy weapons. No information fusion. Etc etc. The entire action barring a couple of hundred kilometers in the Jammu-Pathankot area was in the high mountains. No vehicles for one thing. This is not a joke. Lets see how the Americans would do in such circumstances
India did not take 25 years to defeat 5000 insurgents. That was the maximum number of insurgents operating at the peak of the insurgency. Every year fresh batches of insurgents would infiltrate and had to be wiped out all over again.
The biggest reason for the 15-years is that the Indian government refused to fence the border till very late in the day. Why? Plain incompetence and plain ad hocism. A war of 25 years was fought on an ad-hoc basis? Absolutely. Indians, like Americans, pride themselves on being exceptional. The Government of India is “exceptional” in the same way as American students of a certain group are “special”. Once that fence was built, infiltration came down 95% and the war was over.
There is a reason we don’t criticize Indian generals. Indian generals have no political influence whatsoever. They can talk to the press, but heaven forfend they should say anything that has any meaning. They do not get to shape policy, leave alone MAKE policy as American generals get to do. You can’t blame Indian generals, hardly, because the fellows have no influence with the government. Zip. Zero. Nada. Zilch. Null.
Last, our patriotic reader is under some misapprehension concerning the Editor’s status. Except that he does not get to vote, he is for all practical purpose an American. He lives here, hasn’t been back home in 21 years and has no plans to ever return. Further, aside from those 21 years he was brought up here. Editor’s entire family is American. He pays American taxes religiously and obeys American laws more strictly than most Americans.
The reason Editor is slamming American generals is because this bunch of over-educated, over-confident, over-arrogant, over-publicity-chasers and at the highest levels totally political animals is making a mockery of America. With the one shining example of Gulf I, since 1945 American generals have failed their country again and again and again. Not one has been punished – except McArthur, and that was not because of his military failures, but because he openly, publically defied his Commander-in-Chief. American soldiers have paid the price for their generals’ failure, and the American taxpayer has paid to fund the endless follies of these same generals. If our patriotic reader is not outraged by sixty-five years of pathetic performance, maybe it’s time he did get outraged.
By the way, any time our patriotic reader wants to slam the Indian higher national security setup, we’d be happy to start him off by giving him more hair-curling data and stories than he will be able to absorb. Next Editor will give him lots of contacts in India who will tell him even more hair-curling stories. We just told one the other day, of how India has managed to produce 150 T-90 tanks in ten years.
It is always a big mistake to confuse silent acquiescence in our general’s misdeeds with patriotism. Americans are so patriotic that all you have to do is raise the flag and they will shut up. This is what has been happening since 2001. Neither Congress, nor the media, nor the people have brought our national security leaders – which includes the government – to account for the last decade. This is not patriotism. This is abdicating all responsibility just because the man is waving a flag in your face.
American generals are supposed to be professionals. In Afghanistan they have shown again and again that they do not know how to fight an insurgency. This is not professional. End of story.
(Even if the generals did know how to fight an insurgency, since the Afghans are not willing to fight for themselves, there can be no ultimate victory. But the American generals should stand by their sworn ideals of duty, honor, country, and tell the politicians there cannot be victory. Since the generals have consistently refused to do that, they have failed America, and their men.)

0230 GMT December 3, 2011

If this is not military incompetence, what is? Since only a tiny fraction of the population goes to war, the rest of us have figured out new ways to assuage our guilt. One is that we don’t criticize the military. We have no problems criticizing the military because Editor lived through Second Indochina and was on the outer edge of Korea. We never criticize the people in the trenches, it’s the flag officers we have it for, though we have to admit in Afghanistan there are many cases of brigade commander’s acting weird. We discussed one such some months ago. When he landed up the men told him they had to hold the high ground, which is kind of basic in mountain warfare, you know, a bit like saying B goes after A and before C. kindergarten sort of stuff. He just brushed it off.
Now today we read something that has to take the cake and will explain why we will never win in Afghanistan, not in fifty years. And no, it’s got nothing about how good the enemy is. We are continually amazed at how hopeless he is. Its because our military leaders are plain incompetent at anything other than conventional warfare.
Aviation Week’s Aries Blog informs that the military has figured out that since the range of most American company weapons is 500-meters, the Taliban has been firing with RPGs and machine guns from 1000-meters out. So the ground troops have had to call in artillery and air strikes: expensive, time consuming, and great danger of whacking civilians as well as the bad guys.
So the Army is sending the Carl Gustaf rocket launcher to Afghanistan, high explosive and air burst warheads, range out to 1300-meters
As the Washington Post columnist George Will says when he is really indignant: Well.
First, dozens of armies have been using Carl Gustaf for decades now. It is not a new weapon. Second, the US military has been using it for forever and a day for the Special Forces. It is not even a new weapon for the US military. Read about it at http://tinyurl.com/6s2p2hx
This has taken ten years for American military leaders to figure out? These are the people who we’ve entrusted the Afghanistan War to? The same lot who build bases on the valley floors, load up the infantry with 60-120 lbs of gear – we’re talking mountain now, not the plains, and who have a devised a strategy that before a company can go out on patrol, it has to do planning that makes the planning for Omaha Beach looks like 1^st Grade stuff? The same lot who leaves it to Pakistan to hold the border when Pakistan’s interest lies in defeating the Americans in Afghanistan? The same lot who complains of not enough troops when there are a quarter-million troops and contractors, the later doing the work the military did in previous years? The ones who after ten years want another ten? The same ones who tell us the Taliban is taking a beating, when over the border in Pakistan you have over 2-million males reaching military age every year, and the Taliban needs to recruit 1% to keep this going forever?
You know what? We’re willing to bet that the amount of water NATO troops drink on operations is more by weight than all the supplies used by the Taliban.
What kind of a strategy is to push the Taliban away from American bases and outposts, and let it hang around till it feels like making another attack? Look, people, we know seek-and-destroy got a bad name in Vietnam, but how else are you supposed to take the initiative and make the enemy dance to your tune? Sure you’ve got to protect the population. But you can’t because the locals don’t want to fight.
Aaargh. We don’t want to go on because it raised the old blood pressure. And the worst of it? Not even the incompetent military men. It’s the sophistication with which those same military men have seduced the media and controlled the media and manipulated the media so that we get astonishingly non-critical accounts of the war – and the media has let the military do this and get away with it. It’s the media makes us really, really want to puke. All its grandiosity, overblown sense of importance come to nothing when they’re facing a photogenic American general in battle dress. Somehow the Americans never have a shortage of these folks. The media become as helpless as kittens picked up the scruff of their necks. And its not as if the generals are doing the equivalent with affection. The generals are doing Number One and Number Two all over the media, and laughing at what a bunch of dumb-butts the media are. Enough now.
Jobless rate falls to 8.6% - but hold the diet soda The reason the figure fell was 315,000 people left the labor force. Otherwise 120,000 new jobs would not have moved any needles. Labor economists are said not to be concerned, we have no idea what concerns them but assume they are employed, which automatically reduces anyone’s level of concern.
Further, the bulk of those new jobs are in retail, which pays pathetically. And a lot of the 140,000 jobs created may be seasonal (government jobs fell by 20,000, continuing a two-year pattern of decline).
The real figure we should look at is that 64% of Americans are participating in the workforce, down from October’s 64.2%. So the situation has worsened. But what are facts between friends? You have your facts, I have mine, and we must respect each other’s facts otherwise we are not being inclusive, tolerant, multi-cultural and what have you.

0230 GMT December 2, 2011

Isfahan blast This happened on Monday November 28,The Australian report at http://tinyurl.com/c4l777m which we quoted in Twitter today is the only one we could find that mentions that while Iran has denied any explosion, satellite fotos show there is an explosion at the uranium centrifuge facility.
Okay, so things are blowing up all over Iran, and there comes a point you have to start wondering if the previous explanation that it is bad maintenance should be questioned. We are reminded of Bond James Bond who said “once is an accident, twice is a coinkydinky, and the third time is enemy action.”
The question is, how are these places being sabotaged? Is it by fiddling with the computers and driving machinery crazy? Is someone actually sneaking in and putting explosives? Are these someones insiders or outsiders? And so on. Many questions, few answers.
Saudis fear there will be ‘no more virgins’ and people will turn gay if female drive ban is lifted Dang. Now they tell Editor why he can’t get a date on Saturday. http://tinyurl.com/7tj4fmg What we can’t figure is why get agitated if there are no more virgins when everyone has become gay? Gay men won’t care, and we’re unsure if gay women will.
This will solve the problem of global warming: since everyone is gay, no more kids will be born, in due time the population will be down to zero, and the polar bears will be so happy. Deficit problem? Solved. Failing schools? Solved. Illegal immigration? Solved. Fear that the children of the Kardashian Sisters will have children? Solved. Worry that President Obama will get re-elected? Don’t worry: there won’t be any people so no one can vote for him.
The new Pearl Harbor “warning” that has been declassified A declassified report made three days before Pearl Harbor is being cited as evidence of the government’s mistakes. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2068188/Declassified-memo-warned-FDR-Hawaii-attack-3-days-Pearl-Harbor.html
We haven’t read the book and probably will not, but at least from what the UK Daily Mail report, its clear this report was no warning. “The memo read: 'In anticipation of open conflict with this country, Japan is vigorously utilizing every available agency to secure military, naval and commercial information, paying particular attention to the West Coast, the Panama Canal and the Territory of Hawaii.' As the Americans say, tell me something I don’t already know.
This is warning: “Japanese carriers departed their home port ten days ago and are headed toward Hawaii. It is apprehended from supporting intelligence a, b, and c, that an attack on Pearl Harbor may take place.”
Even that message may not have sufficed for the simple reason that all sorts of contradictory intelligence comes in every day. There was no particular reason for anyone in Washington to suspect that a Japanese attack was imminent. People don’t just attack people out of nowhere.
Something we have yet to see anyone ask: was the US fleet really crippled at Pearl Harbor? Sure, the battleships were either sunk or badly damaged. But let’s suppose no battleship was hit. How precisely were American battleships supposed to retaliate? They could not have survived sea battles with Japanese carriers, nor could they have made much difference to Japanese control of Pacific islands because they would have been attacked by Japanese land-based aviation. To fight the Japanese you needed aircraft carriers. And not one American carrier was touched at Pearl Harbor.
The Americans believe their fleet was crippled because in those days the battleship was deemed supreme. You lose your battleships, you’re crippled. The reality is if the Americans had gone after the Japanese with battleships, those battleships would have been lost anyway.
Flashback to December 10, 1941: under 100 Japanese aircraft attack HMS Repulse and HMS Prince of Wales. The British have no air support. The Japanese lose three aircraft. The British lose both capital ships.
Same thing would have happened to US battleships operating without air cover. If you have the carriers, you don’t need the battleships except for shore bombardment. Also please to remember to Japanese at that time were masters of the universe when it came to aircraft carriers.

0230 GMT December 1, 2011

As a hedge against delays/cutbacks in the F-35 program US is working to extend the lives of its F-15s. The air defense variant is to be extended from 8,000 hours to 16,000. The strike version (-15E), which has stronger wings, is to be extended from 8000 to 32,000 hours. Gulp. That’s 60+ years to 100-years depending on how many hours an individual aircraft is flown. People don’t keep major warships for 60-100 years (though in the age of sail that was often the case). Aircraft are sort of like throw-away items, so it’s a bit mind-boggling that you could fly a fighter for 60+ years.
US is also working on a stealthy version, the Silent Eagle.
X-37 to exceed designed 270-days in space The unmanned mini-shuttle is doing its Energizer Bunny thing. Having stayed aloft for 270-days, its maximum design, US is keeping it aloft to see how much more it can take.
What’s surprising to us that of a sudden people are talking of this as a vehicle to deliver 7-astronuats at a time to the Space Station. Well, didn’t we have such a vehicle, which we called the Space Shuttle? Where did this astronaut thing come from, given the US government and private companies are working on astronaut delivery vehicles?
India’s planned aviation brigades defense news says India plans two types of aviation brigades, one per corps. One is for the strike corps with two battalions each with 12 attack helicopters, and two with 15 general purpose helicopters each. The aviation brigades for the other corps is not defined, but will have more troop lift.
Parenthetically, just to show how completely pathetic India can be regarding defense, Ajai Shukla’s blog “Broadsword” says in ten years India has produced 150 T-90 tanks. That’s fifteen per year. Mr. Shukla blames Russians for reneging on contracts, refusing to supply items and technology agreed to, upping prices, and so on. As the Americans might say: “Aint that a surprise”. Come on India, grow up. The Russians have been jerking India around for decades. India put up with it because Russian equipment was much cheaper and didn’t require precious foreign exchange. You can blame the Russians all you want, the real question is why India puts up with them. It’s as if India enjoys being a victim.
Back in the day, in the 1960s, when Britain provided India with an MBT for domestic manufacture, Indian factories turned out 200/year. Now they’re turning out 15 Russian tanks a year. How can anyone take India seriously?
http://ajaishukla.blogspot.com/
That’s nice the stock markets rallied after the world’s major national banks (not the Germans, please note) announced they would provide additional liquidity, basically (a) guaranteeing no major bank would be allowed to go bust; (b) banks/governments could buy Eurobonds, pushing down yields; (c) providing people funds to buy USA dollars. We’re not quite clear what the point of this last is. Anyway.
All that this does is buy time for Europe to work out a political-economic solution to its debt crisis. Before the world’s central banks announced this move, people were saying Europe had ten days to save the Euro, after that, barring a solution, the Europe was in Bye Bye Land. These moves should provide a lot more than 10 days. But it’s a band aid, not a solution. Very, very tough decisions still have to be made on bringing down deficits and refinancing bonds coming due.
In UK the government has informed the people that they’re in for another six years of misery before incomes can start growing faster than inflation. Now just imagine American politicians telling their people that six more years of misery is in the cards. Can’t imagine it? Neither can we. Americans want to live in La La Land, they can’t take being told the truth. Incidentally, aside from cutting budgets like crazy, the Brits are raising taxes on anyone making a mere $70,000/year. Try doing that here in an effort to stop the deficit from growing.
Honduras is the latest Latin nation to send in the army because drug trafficking is out of control. Mexico readers know all about. El Salvador is being taken apart by drug gangs. Same problem is starting to happen in Puerto Rico, which the last we heard is America for all purposes. Trafficking into Haiti and Dominican Republic is starting to boom. Honduras now has a murder rate of 82 per 100,000, the highest in the world. US average is 5; Puerto Rico is 25, El Salvador is 66, Mexico is 65. Venezuela is 72, with Caracas at 230, but while drugs are definitely an increasing problem in Hugo-Land, there are other issues.
But: my fellow Americans, no need to worry. Please sleep on. There is no problem anywhere. We are the largest consumer of illegal drugs in the world, we jail the highest percentage of our population in the world, but there’s no problem. Carry on, America. Roll another Jay, snort more cocaine, lets drink more booze – which in terms of its social consequences is far more destructive than drugs, as for tobacco – just as is the case with booze – the government (at every level) cannot do without the tax revenue.
Either drugs are a moral issue or they are not. If they are a moral issue, than alcohol and tobacco should be made equally illegal with identical penalties. If drugs are not a moral issue, legalize them so that entire countries are saved from being torn apart and we can jail fewer people. We are not taking a position on this. We’re just calling for consistency and clarity.

0230 GMT November 30, 2011

Only 30% of US cargo transits Pakistan 40% comes in by northern rail route, 30% by air. (We don’t want to even think about the last 10 years has done to the life of the US airlift fleet.) Of course, the 30% via Pakistan is stuff you don’t really want to move by air, like POL, and US partners are more dependent on the Pakistan route. NATO has built stockpiles because closure of the Pakistan route for one reason or another is fairly common.
Governor Christie, we agree with you – but watch that blasphemous mouth We agree with Governor Christie of New Jersey that what the heck is America paying Mr. Obama for, to be a referee for Congress and to walk out when there’s tough work to be done? A president is supposed to lead. That doesn’t mean he is going to win every battle, or even a majority of battles. But he has to get down in the trenches and fight. Mr. Obama is not doing that.
That said, while we understand that Governor Christie wants to show he is a real man, and a man in a hurry, and one who brooks no nonsense, there is no call for him to cuss. America’s public dialog is already crude enough – media, TV, films, the conversations of ordinary folks – that we don’t need to make it worse. A person who cusses tells us only about the kind of person he is, not what kind of person the other fellow is.
Meanwhile, there’s a new imbroglio concerning Mr. Herman Cain We think Mr. Cain could aptly play the magicked ass in Shakespeare’s Midsummer Night’s Dream, though we may be insulting the poor ass. But we don’t see how it’s anyone’s business that he did, or did not, have a 13-year consensual affair.
So what is it Americans want, a candidate without sin? May we ask (a) where they propose to find such a person; and (b) can any man or woman really afford to cast the first stone etc.? Or is it their case that we are all flawed, but our leaders must be perfect, so that we can vicariously watch someone else expiating our sins? If so, we’re exactly 2011 years too late, sorry about that.
Is Chancellor Merkel playing poker? One school says she is. She’s acting tough on an Euro rescue because she wants countries to get serious about their budgets. Another school says she is not playing poker. Aside from that printing money goes against her personal beliefs, the German people will pull her down the day she agrees to print money and the next government will reverse the decision, so why make a pointless decision in the first place?
Canada and Kyoto Canada has refused to abide by the terms of the Kyoto Treaty. In part because of the strip mining required for unconventional oil extraction, Canada’s carbon footprint has increased, and not decreased as the Treaty requires. Canada is looking to expand tar sands output from 1.5-million barrels/day to 3.5-million by 2025.
BTW, a small misconception needs to be cleared up. From well to tank – extraction to refining – tar sands may well create 3-times as much carbon as conventional oil. But most of the carbon created from oil use comes when the oil is used by vehicles. If you calculate well-to-wheels, the increase is a maximum 15%.
Don’t like even that? Okay, support nuclear. Don’t like nuclear? Fair enough. That leave us with two alternatives. Alt A: sit and suck our thumbs. Alt B: reduce our standard of living. Personally, Editor has no problem with Alt B for the simple reason that, existing on the lower margins of society as he does, he’s not using that much energy to begin with. For example, he drives an average of 500-miles a month in a sub-compact. The thermostat is set at 80F in summer and 65F or less in winter (at night heat is off completely). Every light bulb in the house is a 17-watt incandescent. Water use is 2/3rds standard per capita for the region. Lawn is never watered, young trees are occasionally watered. No flower beds.
But don’t suggest stuff like windpower unless you want to live next to a 400-foot windmill. Solar? Okay, we’re progressing slowly, be prepared to pay at least twice, if not thrice, per kilowatt/hour. Etc.
I-95 South between Washington and Richmond We made the trip again to Raleigh NC to see how the new grandkid was coming along, and large stretches of the infamous Washington beltway as well as I-95 appear to have been newly paved. The contractor has done an excellent job, with lanes marked clearly and a profusion of catseyes to help keep you in your lane at night. But: the traffic remains brutal – obviously. Returning Saturday after Thanksgiving, in the early evening, Editor was trapped in a giant traffic jam Richmond Exit 86 all the way to where I-95 becomes 12 lanes (or is it 14) as you approach Washington. Six lanes isn’t enough for the traffic the road must carry between Richmond and Washington. Giant traffic jam as in being completely stopped, 15-25 mph otherwise. Nary an accident, either.
But will I-95 get expanded? They’re doing something north of Baltimore, adding toll lanes (you already pay tolls in Maryland at Baltimore (tunnel), before you hit Delaware, and the Delaware bridge. They’re also adding toll lanes to the Washington Beltway in Virginia. So when traffic reaches the Maryland border, you’ll have 12 lanes or whatever falling to 8, and good luck with that.
Meanwhile, we are being told that MD 200, the Inter County Connector between I-270 and I-95, is the last major road project Maryland will see in a generation. There is no money left for any other road project. Of course, the population will keep growing. Sigh. And here Editor used to think he was living in a first-world country. Still, the air and water are clean and there’s a lot to be said for that. Not complaining, only saying.

0230 GMT November 29, 2011

US Fed made $1.2-trillion in secret loans to US and global banks, says Bloomberg If the $700-billion in TARP is driving conservatives nuts, this is going to put them in orbit with rage. The loans were made in 2008, so it was Bush not Obama who made them. Bloomberg had to use the FOIA to get the information which the fed wouldn’t cough up. Democrats are making the point the total money committed by the Fed for loans etc was $7.7-trillion – we’ve read this figure before, and think it was in Bloomberg/Business Week.
Presumably the bulk of this money has been paid off. But there were no strings attached, unlike with TARP.
The 6 biggest US banks had $6.8-trillion in assets in 2006, before the meltdown began. As of September 23011 its $9.5-trillion.
Two points. One we’ve made many times before. When it comes to comes to Crony Capitalism, we cannot talk about the democrats did this or the Republicans did this. It has nothing to do with political party, the entire lot of bums is on the take. Two, if you consider US had to commit more than half its GDP to stabilize the financial system, you’ll see why we’re so skeptical about the piddling multi-hundred billion bailouts the Europeans keep talking about. It seems to us the Europeans need to come up with a several-trillion-dollar bailout. Since Germany refuses to let European Central Bank print money, which is what the Fed did, the European bailouts cannot succeed.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2067359/Revealed-The-secret-1-2-TRILLION-bailout-given-banks.html
Europe Global markets rose yesterday as it appeared Germany and France will propose stringent rules regarding member budgets. If members reject this, the two countries will form an inner Euro zone where they will issue their own bonds. Countries who refuse European control over their budgets will have to tough it out on their own. This two-tier thing is seen as the better alternative as opposed to breaking up the Euro which will prove costly and plunge the world into a recession.
Meanwhile, Britian is caught in the logic of deficit reduction UK went all in to cut spending as a way of bringing its budget deficit under control. That has triggered a near recession, which in turn has meant a Sterling 50-billion tax shortfall. Which means to meet budget deficit targets, more spending will have to be cut, which will cause growth to fall more etc.
The problem is that pay now, or pay later, but pay you must. If you use deficit spending to mitigate a recession, debt goes up, which weakens the economy in all sorts of way. Cutting spending causes trouble now, but is beneficial in the long run.
Mars Rover Curiosity is on its way, and that’s the easy part. The landing is going to be a white-knuckle affair, with too many things to go wrong as far as we are concerned, despite the most rigorous design, production, and testing. That’s why we favor cheaper probes and more of them.
Meanwhile, BBC says a Russian general says a big US radar in Alaska may have caused EM radiation that crippled the Russian Mars rover, which is in orbit after failing to head off to Mars.
Steve Jobs The following is not an apology for Steve Jobs who shipped 700,000 manufacturing jobs to China so he could make a few more dollars on his products. (We are told there’s $8 of Chinese labor in a $500 I-phone – if correct, there is no reason why Apple could not have taken a slightly smaller profit and had the I-Phone made in the US.) But we came across one allegation against Jobs which we don’t think is quite fair.
Jobs in his younger days before he settled down was living the un-material life and easting meals at a Sikh temple. It is a tradition of Sikh temples that anyone who wants eats free, and they will even give you a place to sleep if you help with the chores etc. This applies to anyone, of the Sikh religion or not of it.
In an Indian publication we saw a letter attacking Jobs for his lack of personal hygiene, his abusiveness towards subordinates and so on. Then the letter writer said Jobs never did anything for the temple which fed him over some period of time.
This is not fair because whatever Jobs’ faults, and he had plenty – we think he was a traitor to America along with others of his ilk – but he never talked about the money he gave to charity.
You could argue that he never talked about it because he never gave any. This is not what we hear. He didn’t want the attention by giving to charity, even though he had so large an ego it could not fit the entire US. We acknowledge its possible we’ve been told wrong . But till proven otherwise, the one allegation we are not prepared to lay at his unwashed feet is that he never did anything for the temple that fed him.
Nothing to remotely do with the GWOT, but we felt we had to respond to the allegation.
From Professor Faizal Khan A couple of comments on your views on the NATO attack on the posts at Salala. Its possible that both sides are ‘correct’ in so far as it goes. NATO has admitted that there was a NATO/ANA joint operation in progress; probably some kind of a cross-border raid on a suspected Taliban camp. Mohmand Agency is clearly bandit country for the Pakistanis. It is possible that they saw something (movement, firing, whatever) and the forts (for that is what they really are) opened up since they knew that there were no friendlies out there—presumably they had not sent out a patrol—and NATO hadn’t told them anything.
The NATO/ANA troops report receiving fire from the Pakistanis and request support; the helicopters and planes pound the posts and wind up killing a lot of Pakistani regulars (NB: these weren’t FC troops; the coffin pics I saw said Azad Kashmir Regt). Since this went on for two hours and it seems that there are reports that the Pakistanis (not sure at which level) were in communication with NATO/US and the attacks still continued, no Pakistani will believe that this was in any way a mistake.
The reaction of the Islamic parties and the government is irrelevant; all that matters is what the Corps Commanders and PSOs say in the conference that will surely be called and how much they have heard from their own men. The PA officers I know are all very anti-US military (and very few of them are in any way ‘islamists’) and many would not be at all averse to an actual confrontation. I’m not sure they are exactly spoiling for a fight but continually rolling over for the US is getting very unpopular among the junior/field-grade officers and ORs.
No matter what Kayani might be personally inclined to do, it really depends upon how angry the Army as a whole is. The PAF also is not particularly happy with the US since they wound up looking particularly pathetic when the OBL raid helis came in and left unmolested. The outcome of any such ‘confrontation,’ if shots are fired, is of course all but preordained but maybe the US might have a minor surprise or two.
From Phillip Rosen When talking of data speeds, you should be using Mb and Kb for Megabit and Kilobit. Files are in Megabytes and Kilobytes, 8 bits to a byte. Regarding Verizon, it is likely the speeds at your door are as they advertise, 15/5 Mb/second. The data is likely going over a network, however, which could slow it down.

0230 November 28, 2011

Arab League imposes total sanctions on Syria Most readers are probably too young to know that 3^rd world bodies such as Arab League were nothing but cozy get togethers for despots and tyrants. To us old timers, it’s a bit of a shock to find Arab League has not just acted against a member, it has acted decisively. As of yesterday, Syria is under trade, financial, and travel sanctions. These, in fact, are tougher sanctions than the west has imposed to date, and the AL did not spend months hemming, hawing, hedging, iff-ing and but-ing. It told Damascus last week its patience had run out, and them whammo, when Damascus didn’t respond, the sanctions came down. Goods intended for consumption by the people are exempt.
AL says it has acted quickly and harshly because it does not want outsiders to interfere in what’s going on. It’s hard to overstate the significance of this development, particularly given several members of the AL are no paragons of democracy themselves – Bahrain and Saudi being two of particular concern. If they are now insisting that Syria allow a representative, popular government, it follows next when their people ask for the same, these countries will have no option but to concede.
Meanwhile, please note Iraq was one of the three countries to against sanctions. Baghdad says it has Iraqis living in Syria, trade, and general security issues to consider. In short, while it’s okay for Iraqis to enjoy the benefits of a democracy, it’s not okay for the Syrians. Is this weird or is this weird?
The Iranians of course voted no, and so did the Lebanese, because of trade. With three neighbors likely to turn a blind eye to sanctions Syria can expect some help. But let’s see what happens.
Pakistan We spoke with Mandeep Bajwa, and both he and Editor came to conclusion that the US air attack was a mistake because it is not like the US to apologize all over the place without a full enquiry, which can take weeks and months. NATO spokesperson has said, without elaboration, that NATO troops came under fire on the border and responded.
We should explain it is routine for Pakistan to provide cover by fire to infiltrators and exfiltrators. They used this tactic against India till the Kashmir insurgency was defeated. There were nights on the Kashmir Cease Fire Line where you’d think war had broken out, because Pakistan artillery would open up and then the Indians would respond, and it would go back and forth. Neither country has ever disclosed how many soldiers got killed in these exchanges.
Pakistanis have been doing the same thing in Afghanistan. Personally, we don’t think it is NATO’s responsibility to always be absolutely sure that fire is coming from a particular outpost when the firing from Pakistan’s side is a daily occurrence. It doesn’t matter these two posts were not firing on NATO forces at that particular time. War is not civil policing, where it doesn’t matter if a habitual law-breaker may not have broken a law on one particular day and is therefore innocent of that particular offence.
Pakistanis say they cannot stop the Taliban from firing on NATO forces from Pakistan. First, this is so not true. Second, how come the firing always takes place from near Pakistani posts? Who do the Taliban choose to infiltrate/exfiltrate adjacent to Pakistani posts
Anyway, the above is beside the point as far as we are concerned. We’ve said the US needs to get out of Pakistan and we stick to that position.
Euro crisis It seems that Germany is going to remain firm against allowing the European Common Bank to print money to buy bonds and push down yields. There’s talk that Germany is in talks with 9 or so other nations to go their own way on the Euro. It means global bankers will have to take a huge hit. But as we said yesterday, therfe comes a point the politicians will not stay bought by the bankers because what their own people will do to them is worse than what the bankers can do to them.

0230 November 27, 2011

That tick-tick-ticking you hear is the timer attached to the Euro bomb. When it blows up, no one can tell what will happen and where it will end. The timer becomes inaudible over the weekend, because the markets are not open. But it's ticking on.
Latest: Belgium downgraded to AA; the 180-day Italy rate at 6.5% we mentioned; the 2-year rate is at 8%; three-quarters of the German public is against the European Central Bank printing money to buy bonds and bring down interest because this will cause inflation; but if the ECB doesn't print money, there will be no one to buy Euro nation bonds at reasonable prices. Had interest rates remained as they were in October, Italy as an example would have been fine. But Italy is having to pay twice as much interest as it planned. So it has to raise taxes at a time it has been in near-recession for years, and that will push the economy into deep recession, and then Italy will be unable to pay - reference Greece.
Without getting into existential debates on this, it is very clear (a) Europe cannot pay back the money it has borrowed; (b) neither can the US. Default is the only solution. The big money people who own governments don't want this option. But there comes a point where you have the big money people threatening the politicians from one side, and the lynch mob threatening from the other. The worst the big money people can do is not give you money. The worst the mob can do is take your life. So what is the course a rational person will choose?
From Eric Cox Today, you wrote: "Agreed that the problem with the stimulus was it was too small and directed to benefit the rich, and so it saved the rich but it didn't help anyone else." I think that you are confusing the TARP with the Stimulus.
The TARP, passed reluctantly by both houses and signed into law by GW bailed out the Banks (which are, arguably, the Rich although the Banks have little money of their own). The Stimulus, (the ARRA), which was passed without bipartisan support during the Nancy Pelosi-Harry Reid interregnum, that was signed into law by BH Obama, bailed out the unionized public employees, the unionized teachers, the unionized auto workers
and the unionized portion of the construction trades (Those most likely to be competitive under Davis-Bacon wages), the green energy industry and the States.
The much of the TARP money, that which was guarantees, not loans, was never disbursed. The TARP that were disbursed been largely been paid back, although there is some funny accounting where the government received stock in the banks.The Stimulus funds, only about 20% of which were for physical product, have not been paid back, but they will be by inflation down the line as you observed.
Reader Cox is absolutely correct we should have said the stimulus was too small to help much. Government's reasoning was the stimulus was a temporary patch till the banks started lending again and got the economy going. That is why George Jr came up with TARP because his economists told him credit was getting frozen and the economy would collapse.The banks were save but did not start lending because there was no demand, because the stimulus was too small. This is a country of 313-million people, after all, and an economy of $15-trillion. According to http://www.recovery.gov/Pages/default.aspx the ARRA spent $730-billion of which $215-billion was for contracts, grants, and loans, the stuff that creates jobs as opposed to the rest. The whole thing put together is 5% of the economy, not enough to stimulate anyone considering the borrowing-driven growth of the last three decades (correct us on the time frame) had collapsed and thus demand had collapsed.
The banks and almost all the financial institutions, of course, are in fine shape thanks to our government. In a true capitalist state, as opposed to a Crony Capitalist state, those bank/institutions should have been left to fail. Hayek specifically says the system has to be cleaned out once excesses build up, and until the system is rebalanced, you cannot get growth. System has not been rebalanced - for example, the mortgages underwater are still carried on bank books as fully viable.
Capitalism, to use Churchill's memorable comment about democracy, is the worst form of economic systems - except for the others. Editor is all for capitalism - but what we have today is not capitalism.
Moreover, what we have is the Anglo-American variant that puts the interests of the shareholders first, last, and always. Other variants, such as Japan, Germany, France put customers and workers first. In the Anglo-American system, it was Steve Jobs legal duty to maximize Apple's profits, even if it meant taking jobs away from Americans and giving them to the Chinese. Also fine and dandy, but when American workers don't have jobs, or make too little to do more than survive, then they cant buy products American companies make. So Steve, the dear boy, checked out with $6-billion and Apple has $60-70 billion overseas that it has evaded taxes on - legally. So there is a place in North Carolina, that had several hundred decent furniture factor jobs. The factories are gone - they're doing excellently in China. Now Apple is putting up a cloud computing facility in that town. The payroll? Fifty people.
The truth is, the economists lied to us. Believe it or not, till he saw the error of his ways, Editor wanted to be an economist. Shudder. One is so foolish in one's youth. The economists said: "Its okay for the furniture jobs to go to China, because they make furniture cheap, which benefits our consumers, and we'll sell them high tech." Well, if you ever have time, look up the China-US trade stats (we'll carry some tomorrow). Like most people, likely you've been assuming that our enormous trade imbalance with China is because of garments, shoes, toys, and furniture. No, sirs and ma'am. Its because China exports far, far more machinery to us than we export to them. We have nothing high tech to sell them, not in any meaningful quantity, because they make everything themselves.
Then the economists said" "We don't need to make anything, because we'll be a knowledge economy." Honestly, Editor has not figured out what this means, because you cannot eat knowledge, nor can it clothe you, nor can it house you, nor can it drive you to work.
And in any case, guess what? The Indians will take every single last knowledge job there is in America. Already American law firms, architect firms, insurance firms, and medical firms, get their scut work done in India. Its just a matter of time before the Indians design the next World Trade Center for us, develop the next miracle drugs, argue our cases before the Supreme Court, and take over not just the bank end of insurance, but the whole shmoo.
Then what will we do?
You see, its not just the government lies to us. Its everyone who has a buck to make lies to the American people.
First, whose fault is this? If a huckster sells you the Brooklyn Bridge, do you blame the huckster or blame yourself? The American people not only blame the huckster, they want the government to protect them from hucksters. Interesting, considering the government and its allies are also hucksters working with the huckster who sold you the Brooklyn Bridge.
Second, unless we the people - you and I - stop whining and blaming the government, the banks, the politicians, the media, for the situation we are in, unless we the people rise up and change things, we will continue getting the Royal Shaft. It may be a 24-carat gold shaft, but it works the same as any other shaft.
Now, having made this inspiring call for revolution - not the silly OWS revolution - Editor will go the fridge and have a nice, soothing glass of chocolate milk, full fat of course. This will put him in a happy coma where nothing matters - not even the lack of a date on Saturday. The rest of the country can return to the TV, beer, and Frito Lays and get back to its happy coma where nothing matters.
PS we're told there is a New Yorker cartoon: this obscenely wealthy banker is in his obscenely extravagant office, looking out of his windows, well pleased with himself. He's on the telephone and he says: "What am I doing? Occupying Wall Street."
There is more truth in that one cartoon than there is in the rest of the uber-indignant, uber-entitled people who say they speak for 99% of the country.
This cartoon reminds us of another, where these two very proper explorer Englishmen in the deepest heart of America have been set upon by the natives. One of the Englishmen has a spear through his middle. The other solicitously asks: "Does it hurt much?" The wounded man says "Only when I laugh."
We laugh at the New York cartoon. But we're the Englishman with the spear through his middle. The banker is the one having the last laugh.
PPS: You know who are taking the responsibility for the economic misfortune that has befallen them? The Irish. That's right, the Irish. As a matter of form they may hurl the occasional abuse at the bankers and politicians. But they realize they were responsible for buying into the over-consumption thing, and they understand they have years of sacrifice ahead of them to make up for their indulgence of the 1990s and 2000s.

0230 November 26, 2011

Letter from "Irate Reader"

You have advocated everything from defaulting on our national debt, to cutting the federal budget to $1-trillion, to raising taxes, as a way of eliminating our national debt. In Europe, we see one country after another getting into severe trouble because they have followed your formula. Since they have raised taxes as well as cut back government spending, the economies of these countries have been pushed in recession and the situation just gets worse every day. I specifically mention Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain, with Portugal and Belgium about to tip over. As for UK, it's just a matter of time before it slips into recession. Greece has done all three things you want the US to do: defaulted on 50% of its debt, raised taxes, cut spending, and the best anyone can hope for is that by 2020 the Greeks will owe "only" 120% of their GDP, if democracy in the country survives till then considering the steadily increasing hardships the Greeks must endure.
When are you you going to understand that your crypto-fascist economics don't work, and that Keynes remains as relevant today as he did seven decades ago, and that Hayek, who you seem to love, had it wrong. And when are you going to admit that we were doing fine with the national debt till your hero, George Bush Junior, cut taxes instead of paying off the national debt as Bill Clinton had begun to do, and then financed two wars using deficits because of his ideological aversion to raising taxes, regardless of the fact that that Great Guru of the Right Wing, Ronald Reagan, raised taxes when it was neccessary.

Editor's Response

Lets talk morality rather than politics or economics. For whatever reason, we have saddled our children and grandchildren with a massive debt. Just as we as individuals would not live high on the hog using credit cards we leave to our children to pay, we as a country should not leave the debt to our children.
The figures are quite simple. The federal government spends $3.5-trillion and takes in $2-trillion. So we add $1.5-trillion a year to the debt. No one, right left, center, up, or down, has come up with a plan that balances the budget leave alone pays off the debt, which is now 100% of our GDP and growing. we need not to just cut the federal budget by approximately 40% so that it is is balanced, we need to pay of $15-trillion. That means raising taxes, and realistically, it also means a partial default.
Yes, people will suffer. Editor has said earlier that if things get any harder, he's going to lose his house for starters because like tens of millions of Americans, he is barely making it through day-by-day. But what justification does Editor have to life off the future of his children? None.
Agreed in theory we should be stimulating the economy. Agreed that the problem with the stimulus was it was too small and directed to benefit the rich, and so it saved the rich but it didn't help anyone else. Agreed that when the economy revives, we should cut spending and raise taxes and so on.
But there's the theory, and there's the reality. The reality is that when times improve, instead of saving more and paying our debts, we will spend more. How does Editor know this will happen? Because it has happened before. Few sacrifice willingly, particularly in this country.
Regardless of the theory, its better to do everything bad that needs to be done all at once. Politically, too, that's better as Machiavelli noted.
As for Keynes and Hayek, neither has an answer for what's happening in America today. The country is deindustrializing, the rich are getting very rich, the very rich are getting obscenely rich, the poor are either getting poorer or just ding-donging along. America has become a country of low wages, decaying infrastructure, terrible health, failing education, etc etc. Can either Keynes or Hayek help us with this situation which neither foresaw? The mantras of the right have proved as barren as the mantras of the left. While Steve Jobs made $6-billion, he didn't help Americans because he outsourced all but a tiny fraction of his jobs. When John Paulson makes $6-billion in a year, he generates - what? - a thousand jobs. As for the left, Government is now "helping" so many people that vast numbers no longer know how to take care of themselves.
Honestly, Editor would put no stock in what Keynes said or Hayek said or whoever said. Someone has to come up with new thinking.
As for Bush Jr, Editor liked him because he was a decent man who governed for eight years without a single woman accusing him of sexual harassment or a single financial scandal. We like him for his personal ethics, not for his financial and foreign policies which have proved disastrous and have eroded our personal freedoms to the point no American can sing the "Land of the Free" part of the national anthem without adding quickly in parenthesis "I lied".
As for being a crypto-fascist, fascism was a unholy troika of state, church, and industry. It's very hard to deny that we live in a fascist country with the composition of the equation having changed somewhat. Its now the state, the financiers, and the media. Closest Editor comes to any American political doctrine is Libertarianism, which is not fascism. Sure, Editor is a heretical Libertarian. But we all need to think for ourselves, no follow a playbook.
If we're going to follow a playbook, then how are we different from the Islamists, who justify everything because "it says right here in the Koran"? Or our own fundamentalists, who justify everything by because "it says right here in the Bible?" Or from the Chinese power elite, which has no playbook since Maoism was jettisoned, but just makes up rules to suit itself as it goes along?

0230 November 25, 2011

Iran arrests 12 CIA spies? This news is a bit boring, for all that it will give everyone a chance to go around beating their chests (Iranians - "We're so smart"; Americans - "we're so stupid"; Brits - "the Yanks still have not learned the business despite all our attempts to teach them" etc. etc.
First, twelve spies is a bit much. It takes years and years to build up twelve real spies and certainly no one is smart enough to roll up that many at one time. Second, since when does one take the Iranians at their word about anything? Just the other day they were claiming they've developed an air defense missile that's superior to the Russian S-300, and that's just one of the claims they seem to make every day of the year.
What's a bit odd is the way the alleged CIA sources are going "Yes, yes, mea culpa and this is a setback." Normally you don't say anything, unless you're trying to distract people from picking on your real spies.
Some things are beyond dispute, and the American love affair with high tech spying is one. A billion dollar spysat is so much more exciting than the dull, risky business of developing people on the ground. Its true people can give you information "national technical means" cannot. It's also true that technology can give you results people cannot. It's also true any statement anyone makes about the world's second oldest profession is true at some time in some context somewhere.
What also cannot be denied is the media pressure for the Sound Bite. A fave Go-To is Mr. Robert Baer, formerly of the CIA, who can be relied on to shoot off something auro-genic (our word for attractive sound bite) faster than you can draw your gun, pardner. Not that anyone asks our opinion, but if they did, we'd have to hem and haw and say "Look, its going to take time to come up with an answer, one has to investigate and analyze and evaluate and so on." (Maybe this is why no one asks our opinion.) Mr. Baer is of the opinion that these arrests show how messed up our intelligence ops in the Mideast are.
But lets first answer this question: do we know the Iranians are making a true claim? Based on experience, that is very unlikely. Second question: how do you define spy? In totalitarian countries you are a spy if the government says you are - don't take our word for it, talk to people who've gotten into trouble consulting in Russia and China. Remember the three American "spies" Iran has just released? A young woman and two young men, hiking in Kurdistan, told by Iranians "you're in Iraq, not to worry, come along", and then they're arrested as spies. Its an old - and very boring story. North Korea probably arrests a dozen CIA spies every day. Even the Iranians couldn't stop laughing over that one, and if you have had dealings with Iranian intelligence officials in the Shah's day or post-Shah - its all the same - you'll know Iranian intel officials are not given to ROTFL.
Which reminds us: Can Editor's spy friend who must have retired by now please get in touch? Editor has lost your contact so he sent a letter to your office, which came back "no such person In This Zip Code". Cheez. As if they went around and asked everyone in an entire Zip Code if they were this person. On top of which they opened the letter, made a fotocopy, and made absolutely no attempt to hide what they did. These youngsters are very disrespectful, but are would they know how to disguise their spy cow in Shiraz to look like a mullah? Obviously not. For the good stuff you need us oldies. (Mr. Robert Baer does not count as an oldie. He knows how to disguise a spy cow as a mullah, but he doesn't know how to infiltrate it into the Nantez enrichment plant. His spy cow would be caught at the first Plop. Editor's spy cow would Plop the Iranian National Anthem in perfect four-part harmony and have everyone standing at attention. So there. Mr. Baer.)
Why should we take Russian seriously? Russia is threatening the US that if Washington doesn't do its ABM thing in a way that satisfies Russia, Moscow will station missiles on NATO's borders. Yawn. Double Yawn. Zzzzzz.
That was a nice nap. Where were we? Oh yes. Russia's point is that the US ABM shield for Europe can be used against Russian missiles. A-a-a-a-a-n-d? Of course it can. Maybe not these particular ones, but in general no weapon system comes with a guarantee that it will be aimed only in one direction.
But are the Russians planning to fire missiles at the US? If they are, then the US should be doing everything to build up its ABM defenses. At this point the Russians will say: "We're not planning to fire anything at anybody. But if the US builds up an effective shield, it could believe it can make a first strike and neutralize our second strike."
Well, we could debate if MAD was that logical a doctrine to begin with. But lets leave that aside. What evidence do the Russians have that the Americans are mad enough to think they can stop 100% of a Russian second-strike? After all, just one warhead getting through would cause catastrophic damage to the US. Moreover, why on earth would the US want to nuke Russia to begin with? The Cold War is over, remember?
We'd like to make two points. One, if the Russians are so worried about US ABM for Europe, let them join the west in stopping Iran's N-weapons program. When Moscow threatens US about Iran, you've got to wonder: is Russia our friend or our enemy? if it is our friend, help stop the Iranians. If it is our enemy, okay, we'd better thicken that shield by a factor of 100. No telling when the Russians decide for a first strike.
Second, what exactly has Russia done to be taken seriously? Its GDP is the same as India's, and will soon fall behind.
We rest our case.
(IMF World Economic Outlook, September 2011, India $1.8-trillion GDP, Russia $1.8-trillion. Currently India is less because the Rupee is in a temporary slump, down from its usual Rs 45/US$1 to Rs52/US$1. But it will recover. Meanwhile, the Indian economy continues growing at 7%.)

0230 November 24, 2011

Saleh of Yemen steps down? The question mark is because though he has signed on the dotted line saying he will go, he has 30-days to hand over power to his vice-prez, and he will remain "honorary" prez for 90. This could give him time to move his cash out of places it could be blocked, and then he could go back on his word.
And as Reuters points out, this deal does not resolve the matter of his relatives, who are armed and dangerous, and have signed no deals.
Egypt protesters reject military's offer and continue demonstrating. There are allegations that the authorities are now using CN and CR tear gas, which is bad stuff compared to the regular CS. There are also reports that the Army is in the forefront of crowd control, possibly hoping that people will get less angry with the army than they get with the police.
Despite our fervent wish the Egyptian generals would just accidentally trip in front of their M-1 tanks and get run over, we have to note that a lot of Egyptians are really worried about the potential for chaos ahead if matters are not resolved soon. A lot of people are okay with the army acting as the de facto guarantor of the constitution. which, we are sorry to say, is an oxymoron. In a democracy the military can be the guarantor of the constitution. Parliament and the courts have that role.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/24/world/middleeast/egypt-protesters-and-police-clash-for-fifth-day.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&hpw
Somalia Unidentified jets, possibly Kenyan, bombed Badade in Southern Somalia, a Shabab stronghold. Simultaneously, naval warships shelled Shahbad positions. We don't know what is happening with the Ethiopian troops that are supposed to have entered Somalia, but Bloomberg reports Somalia is not averse to the idea of an Ethiopian intervention. For their part the Ethiopians say they will not do a unilateral intervention, it has to be within a regional or international framework. Meanwhile, AU is sending two more battalions to reinforce its troops in Mogadishu.
One hopes that people are fed up enough of Shabab that evreryone has decided to get together and wipe it out, but this beinG Somalia, its foolish to make any assumptions.
PRC says it has a right to exercise in Western Pacific and will go ahead with its plans in this regard. Japan says six PLAN warships have passed Okinawa in the last few days.
Okay, its true we don't follow the politics of the Western Pacific closely. But who has said China does NOT have a right to exercise in WestPac? To the best of our knowledge nobody.
All that people have said is they are worried about China's rising military power and they are rushing to get into a group hug with a United States that cant even pass an annual budget on time. Why is China getting bugged by this? It has its rights, and others have their rights.
The rights of others cover the South China Sea. Should the US stop non-Americans from drilling in the Gulf of Mexico? Obviously not, and its not legal. Ditto China and the South China Sea.
We want China to take a deep breath, take Prozac, and just calm down. China has the right to look to its security. Its already the world's biggest oil importer (we don't count US because Canada/Mexico routes do not have to be guarded). And everyone else has the right to look to their security.
If China doesn't want coalitions built against it, the first step would be to respect other nations instead of pretending this is back in the 16th Century or whenever that the Chinese used to give orders to the barbarians. The second step would be to permit democracy. Unless China does that, it can have a $50-trillion GDP and it will still get no love.
Right now with all their whining the Chinese are making the biggest mistake anyone can make, which is to be boring. People don't like whining bores. You think you're better than America, then offer a competing vision that can grab the world's attention. DON'T WHINE.
Rule Britannia? So now UK Telegraph tells that when HMS Westminster went off to Libya, it had exactly four SAM rounds. Since the Seawolf missiles are fired in pair, it could have defended itself against precisely two targets. Is this the right time to utter a 'Cor Blimey?

0230 November 23, 2011

Unimportant News US growth slips, Spain bonds at new highs, US deficit super-committee fails.
Important News Kris Humphries, 72-day husband to Kim Kardashian, called her "fat".
Unimportant News Syrian troops fire on Turkish pilgrimage bus, International Criminal Court concedes Libya's jurisdiction over Saif Gadaffi, Egyptian military makes soothingly unconvincing noises to Tahir square demonstrators
Important News 49-year British wife falls over balcony railing in Tenerife hotel, luckily her ankle gets caught in another balcony's railing. After rescue, husband and wife are given lecture on safe sex by police.
Even more unimportant news Sui Kyi to run for Burma parliament; Pakistan ambassador to US resigns; alleges the memo sent to US asking for Washington's help in dislodging Pakistan Army Chief/ISI Chief was planted by Pakistan Army to weaken Pakistani President, Bahrain Government report commissioned by King concedes some cases of overreaction in putting down pro-democracy protesters.
Important News American frat pledge busted by security cameras after he tosses 16 dead ducks inside the front hall of a rival frat, will be charged by police.
Absolutely, totally unimportant news Banks ask European Central Bank for $333-billion in emergency funds, worst hit since 2009, indicating they cannot get credit elsewhere.
Important news Tiger wood's Number 1 mistress, 36, marries boy toy chef, 26.
You call this news? From Xinhua of China: "The Greek public debt has risen to 360.379 billion euros (487.12 billion U.S. dollars), or 165.3 percent of GDP by the end of September, the Greek Finance Ministry announced on Tuesday. The figure was seven percent higher than three months ago, and 23.6 percent more than that of the same period last year."
This is news Suspected that Kate "Mother-of-Eight" Gosselin has had plastic surgery.
all real news items courtesy of UK Daily Mail, the world's greatest newspaper.
Letter from RS I am unsure why you advocate drowning lobbyists. Do you advocate drowning doctors who provide medical care to politicians just because you don't like politicians?
Editor Reader RS has a point.

0230 GMT November 22, 2011

Pizza is a vegetable? Has US gone starkers?

So first you have pizza lobbyists trying to get pizza declared a vegetable on the basis that tomato paste is made from a vegetable, which it is not, because tomato is a fruit. Your typical pizza lobbyist is so devoid of a mind he can't even figure that out. The reason for this "pizza-as-a-vegetable" push is that then pizza need not be be kicked off the "healthy" school lunch menus US has mandated.
Okay, so here you have pizza lobby wanting to feed at the public trough, because school lunches are paid for by us benighted taxpayers. But this development is matched by Yum Brands, a fast food chain, that wants permission to accept food stamps.
But second, there is a larger issue here. Why are schools serving lunches in the first place? How can a school lunch, no matter how "healthy" compare to a home made lunch put together by Dad or Mom? Especially in these financially difficult times, schools should be focusing every penny on education, not on school lunches.
Aha, some will say. One function of school lunches and breakfasts is to make sure less well-off kids eat, because a hungry kid is not a learning-receptive kid. Fair enough. But why is the State taking over the functioning of providing breakfasts and lunches? Add that money to the subsidies given to lower-income families and let them do the needful.
Oh but we can't be sure that the parent(s) will be responsible. In which case we have a suggestion: lets take away children from their parents the minute children are born, and let the state bring them up. All public schools can become boarding schools, and children will be locked up 24/365 till they are of legal age so that there is no chance irresponsible parents can harm them. Come to think of it, a great deal of harm can be done to an unborn child, so the second a woman gets preggers, she will have to be seized and locked into a government facility - we can build additional floors for the schools to accommodate them - where the government will make sure they have a healthy pregnancy.
Come on, people, its time this nonsense is stopped. Lobbyists should be taken and drowned in the Anacostia River - cheaper than shooting or hanging them. And breakfasts and lunches should be returned to where they belong, to the parents.
[Point of clarifications: some Americans think "gone starkers" when one means "gone bonkers" is incorrect, as "starkers" means without clothes. No, no, and no. You can say "he was starkers" to indicate he was without clothes. But "gone starkers" means gone crazy, as in "stark raving bonkers".]
[In case readers are wondering way we're using "without clothes" when we mean "n****": in New England, "n****" is a word that creates lust, and us New Englanders don't do lust. Having lust in your heart definitely counts as a demerit when old St. Peter does the tally before sending you down the down escalator.]

Justin Beiber

We sincerely hope the scoundrelless (that's female scoundrel) who accused Justin Beiber of fathering her child goes to jail. First, she was an adult and Justin was not of consenting age when this encounter took place. Now you know and we know that it is the dream of every teenage boy to be seduced by his ultra-hot teacher or Mom's Hot Best Friend. But if you're going to put men away for messing with below age females, you have to be fair and do the same thing for women who transgress. Remember Title VII?
But what is really, really bad, is that Justin has been saying he's never met the woman. And now it emerges that the child in question is another man's, and the mother has been lying through her toffers. No, the results of the DNA test haven't come in. The woman has been ratted out by people and by emails asking people to cover up who the real daddy is.
We're not quite sure why this affair should make us so angry. But it does. and we're sure it's the Main Stream Media's fault. Everything is. We've often wondered when The Old Boy caught Eve with the Apple why she didn't deny everything and blame the MSM.
In case the authorities have trouble punishing this child molester, we have a suggestion. Editor till very recently subbed at two middle schools, Newport Mills Middle and Silver Springs International, in Montgomery County. He had to stop subbing there because the little darlings are so out of control they give Editor elevated blood pressure and at his age getting elevated BP is not a priority. What we suggest is this woman be driven to either school, the doors locked, and the adults withdrawn a safe distance. After the middle school girls are done with this woman, there won't be enough of anything left for a funeral.

0230 GMT November 21, 2011

Libyan ex-spy chief captured He was the last major regime figure on the loose. No ICC for him. They'll be hanging him ASAP. And it couldn't happen to a nicer guy.
Egypt That the Egyptian army has zero sense and is headed for a fall has become increasing clear over the past few month, as the generals try to sidetrack the revolution. After trying everything else, the revolutionaries returned to Tahir square, where the police - backed by the army - thoughtfully killed twelve and wounded 1000 over the weekend. The demonstrations have spread to Suez and Alexandria.
Where does the US stand? Washington will say it is working behind the scenes. Actually, one part of Washington has been suffering acute stomach pains followed by many rushes to the latrines since the Islamists have become prominent - which of course another part of Washington knew would happen and has been working to co-opt the Islamists.
But unless Washington moves very rapidly to send its running dogs, the Egyptian generals, back to the barracks, and accept its fave generals are going to get arrested and out on trial, America's credibility in the Arab Spring is going to get so low we'll be having tea with the Kangas in Oz. There's no wiggle room for the US at all, not even a little bit. The Egyptian army has gone back on its promises to the people, and the people do not trust it anymore - and particularly not after this fresh explosion of violence.
As for the Egyptian generals thinking they can hold on to power - sorry, old buddies old pals. wrong country, wrong time. Leave Egypt while you can.
Yes, the generals will undoubtedly manage to suppress this current uprising. For a few weeks. After that its going to be downhill, and if the generals dont go, its going to be Syria all over again.
Also please to note that after the police cleared Tahir Square using live ammunition, Sunday night the protesters came right back. We hope the generals are taking note. And if they decide to tell their troops to fire on demonstrators, then they will be out of jobs that much sooner. The police has a stake in the old regime: thousands of them are facing arrest and trial for their misdeeds under Mubarak. But the army ahs already once refused to attack demonstrators, that was during the anti-Mubarak demonstrators. That's what bought Mubarak down. So we wonder why the generals think it will be any different this time around.
Dutch and windmills fall out Sounds like the end of the world, because after all, the Dutch ARE windmills. But not the new kind. (a) Environmental opposition to the giant machines is building; and (b) Netherlands government's austerity program cuts out subsidies for windmills.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/16/us-dutch-wind-idUSTRE7AF1JM20111116
The environmental problem is acute in Europe, particularly small countries like Holland and England. In the latter country people are going bats because the monsters are up to 410-feet high and ruin the view. Ditto Holland. In US its different because we have so much empty space. of course, its possible that Texas gophers also object to having windmills in their yards, but since they don't have a lobby in Congress, it doesn't matter what they think.
Among the companies supported by the Bush AltEnergy initiative is one which was building flywheels to store wind power. The technology works fine, but the company is in the dumps - we're not sure why.
BTW, the Dutch are not in financial trouble as you might think since they are tightening their belts. Many countries are doing that because they don't want any whiff of trouble to attach to them. Poland is another country that is tightening up entirely on its own.
Newt's Dollar Bonanza Much to our amazement, no one has made anything of the revelations that Newtie Newt fed at the public trough and stole $1.8-million of the public money acting as a consultant for Freddie Mac. Like all theft in Washington DC, it was all done legally, of course. Now comes the news that in the last eight years he has made $37-million "consulting" for health care companies. Newt's center the idea that every earner above $50,000 be required to buy insurance or post a bond. And then people call Obama a Communist.
We wonder what other money Newt made as a super-lobbyist.
BTW, we want to share a little secret with our readers. Individual Americans may well be aghast at the notion the Government can force them to buy health insurance. But guess who wants Government mandated health care? The health insurance companies, of course. ObamaCare is going to expand their pool by another 50-million people. Its not visions of sugar plums dancing, its visions of dollars dancing.
And still further - but this you know - guess who secretly supports ObamaCare. Big Business. Yup, because they will now stop offering health insurance to their workers. Its cheaper to pay the $2,000 fine than pay $8000 or more for a family of four.
This is one reason we don't like to get into debates about the Bad Democrats or the Bad Republicans or whatever. Every last one of the people in power in this country are corrupt to the core. Big Business makes gazzillions of dollars BECAUSE of government. Some people are just very open about their corruption, like Chicago Democrats. Others are a bit more subtle about it, like GOP Presidential Candidate Newt.
Oh yes: which state gets the most federal money? No, no, no people, it is not the Washington DC region. It is - hold your breath - the great freedom loving state of Texas.

0230 GMT November 20, 2011

The ICC and Saif Gadaffi we confess to total bafflement by the International criminal Court's demand that Said Gadaffi, captured yesterday, be handed over. The ICC seems to base its case on two points. One, that he might meet his father's fate. Two, the ICC has a warrant for him and Libya is duty-bound to hand him over.
Taking the second point first, so while Editor was napping did Earth suddenly acquire a world government that supersedes the laws of individual nations? The ICC has a right to demand service of its warrant if the man is caught outside Libya. But inside Libya, the law of the legitimate government must take precedence.
Right, there is no Libyan Government at this time. But the tribesmen who have his custody say they will turn him over only when there is a government. Sounds to us the tribesmen want to save him from vigilante justice, which is dashed sporting of them considering.
Next, where does the charter of the ICC say that if a danger exists that a legitimate government mistreats a citizen person for whom ICC has a warrant, the person has to be handed over to the Court? So what comes next? ICC knowing full well that terrorists seized by the US will be brutally tortured, will issue warrants for them and demand the US hand them over? ICC will issue warrants against President Obama because OBL, like Gadaffi, was served vigilante justice? ICC is making no sense.
The point of the ICC is to intervene when an illegitimate government is committing crimes against humanity and the government's citizens have no recourse. But Libya does have a recourse - when the country gets a government, of course. ICC should stay out of this.
US unlikely to reach debt agreement by deadline i.e., by Thanksgiving, which is four days away. Given that in 2013 automatic cuts to all programs start, we don't see why US politicians would expend political capital in coming to any deal. There's all kinds of vague threats if a deal is not reached the US will be downgraded again. does anyone think the politicians care? There's other threats US will look like blithering idiots in front of the rest fo the world, especially after telling the Europeans to get their act together. Do the politicians care if the US looks like blithering idiots? There are other prophecies saying Congress, whose approval rating is 9%, must act to preserve itself otherwise the people will vote the poltroons out. Okay, and then the people will vote another bunch of poltroons in.
So basically we are not impressed by all the predications of doom, gloom, and chaos if the US doesn't reach a deficit reduction deal. And we're not even sure how badly Americans want a reduction deal right now, seeing as they have the shining example of the Euro economies on their way to recession because of tax increases and budget cuts.
Turkish papers outlines possible Syria intervention Could this be a trial balloon or a warning to Assad of Syria? Turkish papers are saying that while Turkey will never intervene to change the regime, if things worsen it might consider a no-fly zone adjacent to its border because it doesn't want more refugees. It would also use the zone to protect opposition groups. Turkey's other concerns are that the crisis could destabilize the region and lead to war.
Comment from Major A.H. Amin on our write-up on the Pakistan dust-up regarding an approach the Government made to Washington asking for help in dealing with General Kayani. Major Amin, whose articles we sometimes carry, feels that the Editor being and Indian is partial to General Kayani because Indians find it easier to deal with Pakistani military dictators than the country's civilian government.
Before replying, we have to note that its quite common for Indians to say exactly what Major Amin is saying. At least when Editor was last in India twenty-one years ago Indians use to say it.
Editor has no idea if they are still saying that, and if they are, they must be a bunch of blithering idiots. It was a stupid thing to say in the past, now it is even more stupid.
India and Pakistan have fought not three wars as some people think, but five. Of these only one started when Pakistan was under a civilian government, 1947-48. The 1965, 1971, 1999, and the terror war were all started when Pakistan was under military rule. The almost war in 2002 also came when Pakistan was under military rule.
Yes, the terror war was continued under Pakistani civilian leaders - Mrs. Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif. But did they have any choice? after all, then as now the military ruled whatever was Pakistan's notational government.
There is a very widely accepted school of thought in India that were Pakistan to develop strong civilian institutions, conflict between the two countries could be greatly reduced. The Pakistan Army is seen as perpetuating the Indo-Pakistan conflict as a way of maintaining its hold on the country and as a way of doing just as it darn well wants without civilian interference. It is to this school Editor belongs - not to Pakistani Military Dictators are Easy To Get Along With school, because manifestly that is not true. These gentlemen are dangerous, erratic, vengeful, narrow-minded etc etc.
Maybe things have changed and maybe Indians love Pakistani generals. Editor has not been back for 21 years so he cannot be included in whatever has changed since then. And while he was in India no one listen to him anyway, so what he thought was of no consequence.
Even the neighbor's dog in Delhi didn't listen to the Editor. If he was outside when Editor and Mrs. R IV were walking to the market, he would follow, and refuse to go home despite any number of whackings he got. People on the street would be aghast at the whackings, What they didn't understand is that the dog took them as a sign of true affection because his owners just ignored him, and no amount of reasoning with him would get him to go home. The poor fellow got distemper and died. Very sad.

0230 GMT November 19, 2011

US Successfully Tests Hypersonic Global Strike The missile, travelling at more than Mach 5 hit its target 3000-km away after a 30-minute flight. oddly, this particular vehicle is being developed by the US Army.
Please to note there are several hypersonic vehicles under development. One is the DARPA's HTV-2, which failed in one test in 2010 and was partially successfully in 2011. That baby flies at Mach 20. USAF is also developing X-51 Waverider.
Talking about these things, Editor has been reading Nick Cook's "The Search for Zero Point", and he brings up a point: how on earth does the B-2 get into the air? Compared to the B-52, engine-wise, this feller is downright 90-lb weakling. B-52 at normal loaded weight uses 1-lb thrust to put 1.8-lbs of aircraft into the sky. But B-2 uses 1-lb thrust to put 4.6-lbs of airplane into the sky. It has to be that something about the wing that actually reduces the effect of gravity. Not quite anti-gravity, but there's something very odd about this plane.
US is supposed a country that can keep no secrets, but personally Editor has found US does quite well at keeping secrets when it wants to.
And further talking of these things, we didn't realize the F-22 is still in production, though at the tail end. We hope someone is working on extending the production run now that the PLAAF has a sort-of-stealth and the Russians with the Indians are developing an F-22 analog, the PAK-FA. It had its first flight last year. Now, we're not suggesting India is a threat to the US, but Sukhoi projects a market of 600 aircraft outside Russia and India. That is, the aircraft will be available to anyone who wants to buy it. The plane will enter squadron service in 2016 - more like 2018 the way these things go, and okay, so its not going to be equivalent to the F-22, which continues being upgraded. Still, F-22 is not going to have the skies to itself soon enough.
Yes, yes, there's the theory that except for supercruise F-35 has everything F-22 has and its cheaper. But F-22 is 7-tons heavier at normal take-off. Okay, so it has two engines instead of one, but this suggests F-22 can carry more by way of electronics, weapons, etc. And supercruise has its uses.
India almost-ICBM test in February 2012 This will be Agni V, a 3-stage missile. We misspoke the other idea when we called the 3000-km Agni IV an ICBM. We somehow thought that was the ICBM but fired at reduced range. We were sort of right, because Agni V adds a third stage to an Agni IV. Agni 5 will become operational in 2014, and is still technically short of ICBM range by 500-km. A longer range missile will deliberately not be developed because India wants to make it clear Agni V is solely a defensive deployment against China and it has no intention of threatening any other part of the world.
US Harrier purchase update defense News reports that the US Marines will not fly the British Harriers, rather, they will be used for spare parts to keep the AV-8 fleet going till 2025, by when the Corps expects to have transitioned to an all F-35 fleet.
A British "Most-Wanted" Terrorist gets whacked in Pakistan courtesy of the CIA's Little Plane That Could. So the family back in UK is taking this badly because its the second son they've lost to drone attack.
Hmmmm. There is a very simple way to stop your son from being killed by the CIA. If he won't listen to you and stay law-abiding, turn him in to the authorities. They'll straighten him out, he'll live, and there's every chance you'll see him again in a decade or two.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/8900443/Britains-most-wanted-killed-in-drone-attack.html
Tough choice? Sure. But this Pakistani family either chose not to make it or couldn't bring itself to make it. Now its paying the price.

The Pakistan Coup Crisis

We've been staying out of this because frankly we don't think its Editor's business or India's business. Purely an internal matter, as the press flacks say. But we think we should comment on it, because it shows why Pakistan is not successful as a nation.
Short story put shortly: after US killed OBL, the Pakistan civil government sent word to Admiral Mullen that it was afraid the military was going to stage a coup. If America would help, the Pakistan civil government would take out General Kayani, Army Chief, and the ISI chief, and it would turn over various AQ and Taliban people wanted by the US, like Mullah Omar and the Haqqanis, and it would cut ties with the Taliban etc etc.
Admiral Mullen says yes, he did see the message but didn't take it seriously.
And he was absolutely right to, and that he did not proves the point that we make again and again: US actually does understand what goes in Pakistan and it knows the Pakistanis inside out.
Admiral Mullen was right because this was nothing more than a very cynical attempt by President Zardari, who exists at the pleasure of the Army Chief - as has been the case for every civilian leader since the 1950s - to get the US to do something he can't, which is to remove the army chief.
In other words, Zardari was willing to sell out Pakistan for his personal gain, repeating a pattern that has existed in North West India for millennia. (Editor is from NW India, so this a mea culpa.) Us NW Indians are always looking to involve foreigners in our local affairs, to gain some ephemeral advantage or the other. In fact, Editor has gone as far as saying that the real patriots in India before Independence were the Bengalis, who of course us NW Indians make fun of as weak and un-martial. (This opinion did not elicit a happy reaction from many Indians, but folks, facts are facts. Read your history.)
Now hold your horses you say: Sell out Pakistan? But wasn't Zardari promising to put Pakistan on the right course by getting rid of the terrorists and so on?
We repeat: the head of Pakistan tried to sell out his country. See, you and I might think that Pakistan's tight embrace of terrorists of several ilks is the wrong course. But first, Pakistan has chosen the terrorist strategy as a logical weapon against its very much stronger neighbor, who it regards as an existential threat to its existence. Second, it is for the Pakistanis to decide what is the right policy for them, not for you and I. If Zardari thinks its the wrong policy, he has to figure out how to change it, and get the Pakistani people behind him, not for him to call in a foreign power. Yes, this would be lonely furrow to hoe and all that, but Tough Tootsie Rolls, Did the Germans who opposed Hitler have it easy? Did the Czechs and the Hungarians have it easy? Do the Syrians have it easy?
Still further, Zardari's offer was something he had no ability to deliver. Its not as if you remove General Kayani and all is well. The next senior general will take over. That's not complicated, is it.
And how precisely was the US to remove Kayani and the ISI chief? Send UAVs after them?
Where Zardari really messed up was in trying to convince the USA that General Kayani was planning a coup and the US had to preempt him. The US and General Kayani share a bed - albeit a large one with a sword in between them. but if there is anyone who knows better than the Pakistanis what Kayani is thinking, its the Americans. And they knew jolly well General K. was planning no coup.
So, you say, General K. is not selling out Pakistan to the Americans? Yes and no. He could tell the Americans to get out and take the consequences. The Army benefits from its alliance with the Americans. But that the Americans would make Pakistan suffer if they were kicked out is not in doubt. And General Kayani has done his uttermost to give the US as little as he possibly can.
Whatever you think of him. General Kayani is a patriotic Pakistani. President Zardari is simply for sale to the highest bidder. And he's made a very bad mistake with this approach to the US. General K. neither forgives nor forgets. Of course Zardari stays only as long as is convenient to General Kayani. But now that General K has seen the snake he has been nurturing at his bosom, so as to speak, Editor''s guess is Zardari may soon find it expedient to enjoy his houses in London and Europe, before General K decides to put Zardari on trial for any one of the hundred massive scams to loot Pakistan the man has run, and continues to run.

0230 GMT November 18, 2011

Europe Spain and France both took a beating. Yesterday new issue Spanish 10-year bonds went for 6.975%, a whopping 1.5% above what it paid just a month ago, and just a hair short of that supposed Point Of No Return, 7%. French 10-year bonds were at 3.636, which sounds good, till you realize German 10-year bonds are at 1.76%. That's half the French rate.
So what's happening is this: France is telling Berlin that unless the European Central Bank starts printing Euros and buying debt - as much as 3-4 trillion worth, Euro and Europe are going to go down the potty. This printing money is, of course, what we did in the US when we got into trouble. The Germans are saying No Way Jose or whatever their equivalent expression is, because (a) printing money means inflation and you won't get agreement from us even if we're dead; and (b) You all - France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece etc - are a bunch of lousy lazy freeloading bums whose spending is out of control and you'd better cut, cut again, and cut some more after that (sound familiar?).
As the Euro plea that if they keep cutting they will get into recession and riots, Berlin says "Tough Tootsie Rolls" or whatever the equivalent German expression is. You have to be aware that Germany in the last 10 years tightened its belt, cut spending, reduced protections for labor and so and on, which is why the German economy has been going great guns, so as far as the Germans are concerned, its time for the other Euros to swallow their medicine.
The other Euros are saying "If you don't cooperate, your export markets will collapse, because guess where we were buying from when we were overspending? We were buying from you."
The Germans are singing "We will not be moved" or its German equivalent.
Meanwhile the British are unhappy because if the Euro contagion spreads further, the British banks that are holding whacking great sums of European loans are going to go down the Thames. We're told the Thames is a lot cleaner than it used to be, but glugging Thames water is not what you want to do after you've been drinking Dom Perignon. (Editor drinks tap water, so he has no sympathy for British bankers.) So that's why the Britis are in a foul mood about the Germans because as far as London is concerned, the Germans are standing smack in the middle of Europe in their stubborn, sausage, and lederhosen sort of way and not giving a darn about anyone including the Brits.
And the Germans are saying "You know what? You're absolutely right. We don't give a darn about you or anyone else."
Berlo is plotting a return That's all we can tell you because we know no more. Before he left office, reader Luxembourg tells us. Berlo released an album of love songs. Message to Berlo from Editor: "We defended you when you caught flak for saying you'd slept with 8 women in one night, mainly because we know you had a jolly good snooze while the women went home, but this album of love songs is totally tasteless. You're seventy-five years old, good buddy. You've got to stop making an exhibition of yourself."
And if that wasn't bad enough, we had Piper Laurie (who we thought was the cutest thing) telling America that when she slept with President Reagan (during his starlet days) he kept boasting about what a great lover she was, and when she said she wasn't satisfied with his performance he said there had to be something wrong with her and she needed to see a doctor. Thank goodness Prez Reagan is dead, we don't know how we could have stood the embarrassment had he been alive. But what's the matter with everyone? Why do they have to share this information with everyone? When Mrs. R. IV announced she'd been faking it for decades, did Editor tell the whole world about her complaint? Of course not. He has some dignity, thank goodness.
The F-35 We've been deliberately avoiding the subject because we were hoping people who say "Why do we need the F-35, there's no potential enemy who can near match what we have right now" would have seen the light by now.
People, aircraft are machines. No matter how lovingly you maintain them - and US military does a great job, we have to say - and no matter how much you upgrade them, like any machine they run down. F-16, for example, was built for 8,000 flying hours and now has been extend to 13,000, or 30-years, and that is a whacking large number of hours. You can't just keep extending the thing. Okay, the B-52s are going to end up at 80-years of service when they finally fly into the sunset, but (a) the thing is built like a tank; and (b) it does not do low-level, high-g flying.
As it is the US cut the F-22 from a 750 planned buy to 110, and cut the B-2 from a 132 to twenty-one. BTW, please note if we had 100 B-2s today, US could put 4000 1000-lb precision guided bombs on target in one sortie. we wouldn't be sitting here saying "ooooh, we can't whack DPRK and we can't whack Iran and we can't whack Syria" if we'd had the full monty B-2s. The people who cancelled the B-2 thought they were being very clever. Lets not make the same mistake again. Tomorrow when China has 300 stealth fighters people are going to be weeping wailing about the lost F-22s. Okay, we know the existing F-22 fleet can known down the entire PLAAF without losing one aircraft, and that China Stealth is going to be kind of pathetic, but why do we want to be taking these chances?
Please to note 10,000 F-86 Sabres alone were produced and the plane was in US front line service for less than 10-years. And US had boat-loads of other aircraft (10,000 if for all air forces). Of course, the plane cost $2-million in today's money. Anyway.
Letter on Washington lobbyists from reader Mark E Today’s 11/17/11 entry mentions the D.C. “feeding trough.” I wanted to tell you this: I was born and raised in D.C. (yes, one of the few). Since I was born in 1943, I remember vividly the acres of “temporary” government buildings that sat unoccupied for years after WW2.
And since I grew up near downtown, I also remember the K St. area skyline of 3-story walkups and flophouses. But I left D.C. in my late teens, never to return as a resident. A few years ago I came back and visited family for about ten days and had time to revisit the City. What astounded me was how the skyline north of Penn. Ave. was filled with gleaming 5-story office buildings. It looked more like Paris than the rundown city of the forties and fifties. Then it hit me! As far as the eye could see were LOBBYISTS. The Capital, Senate and House office buildings, Supreme Court, Fed, Justice Dept, etc hadn’t changed much. But the LOBBYISTS! What a sight! Big Oil, big Pharma, big Retail, big Auto, big Unions, big Sierra Club, big everything. Amazing!

0230 GMT November 17, 2011

European Bond Yields Doubtless readers are slapping their heads and asking: "Why do I need to know this?". But these days the global economy is strategic issue Number One. For one thing, if Europe gets into worst trouble, US economy also takes a hit; already many American analysts think a second recession is inevitable. That will affect domestic stability. The first recession has been really rough on people, another recession, this time with Europe is super-crisis is not going to be met with same passivity Americans dealt with the first.
For another thing, expect further major cuts in Euro defense spending because almost without exception the Euro governments have to tighten belts, and defense is one place that in Europe these days at least, is easy to cut. Of course, you may ask what precisely are they going to cut, seeing as very few countries meet the 2% GDP on defense NATO guideline. But that's another debate.
Getting a hold on the US deficit is going to become a lot harder is the US economy heads for a second recession, and like it or not, the US defense budget is going to come under very severe pressure.
So: back to Euro bond yields. If you look at the figures (which surprisingly not in one place, we had to do a lot of searching to get them all, you'll see what the problem is:
10-year bonds 11/16/2011 (%) GR 28.7; PO 11.3; IR 8.2; IT 7; SP 6.4; BE 4.9; FR 3.65; PRC 3.6; NE 2.44; UK 2.2; US 2.02; JAP 2.02; GER 1.84.
First, America, you are no longer considered the best bet. Germany pays less for its 10-year bonds than we do. Admittedly that is a big simplification, but who would have figured - say four years ago - that our bonds would not be considered safest.
Second, look at Greece. If you thing 28% is an absurd rate, you're right. No one can pay that rate. European Central Bank can huff, puff, do what it likes, but Greece is history. BTW, in the middle of October the yields on Greek 1-year bonds reached 188%.
The Greek PM won a vote of confidence 255 out of 300 seats, and the media says this shows that the way is clear for the PM to push through even tougher austerity measures. As if. Don't for a minute think the Greek people have agreed for the government to tighten the vice even tighter. This whole thing could fall apart any day.
US-Australia deal on Marines Two hundred and fifty Marines will start rotating every six months through Darwin, Australia next year, that's a company with logistical support and a few helicopters. The number will gradually increase to 2500 by 2016, which is a battalion air-ground team.
Chinese reactions The Chinese pride themselves on the subtlety of their diplomacy. Here are some quotes from them which show just how subtle they are:
"'If Australia uses its military bases to help the US harm Chinese interests, then Australia itself will be caught in the crossfire"; "Australia surely cannot play China for a fool. It is impossible for China to remain detached, no matter what Australia does to undermine its security''; "...the US was trying to use Australia to contain China in a ''pincer'' movement. He said it would be a historical setback if the US was trying to provoke a ''21st-century new Cold War''." These three quotes are from http://www.smh.com.au/national/chinese-warn-of-crossfire-over-base-20111116-1njd1.html
Definitely us Americans are too crude to be anywhere near as sophisticated as the Chinese.
What precisely is bothering the Chinese is a bit difficult to see. China's GDP is approaching $6-trillion, and it spends less than 2% of that on defense. Even with the global slowdown, and an expected China slowdown, its GDP should rise to $12-trillion by 2025. Four percent of that would be half-a-trillion dollars, four times what China spends now. China will be outspending the US in the Pacific. By the time 2025 rolls around, the way the US is going, we'll be lucky to have 8 carrier battle groups, 8 army divisions, two Marine divisions, and 10-12 tactical fighter wings - for the whole globe.
Subtle message to Beijing from someone who is on the American side: "Take a chill pill, homey".
Newt Gingrich took $2-million as a consultant to Freddie Mac (Washington Post, Bloomberg says $1.6- to 1.8-million). After his contract ended in 2008. Newt became a critic of government sponsored enterprises.
We repeat again: whether its Democrat pigs or GOP pigs, they all want to feed at the public trough. When is America going to realize everyone politician and businessperson is an opportunist in this country, as are lobbying groups including non-profit groups who claim to represent the public interest.
(True Confession time: if Editor was getting his, he wouldn't be complaining.)
UK Telegraph's Matt Cartoon The protagonist wife has caught him in bed with another woman: "Darling...I can explain. It's all the Euro's fault". http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
US Navy to buy mothballed British Harriers As part of its military drawdown, the British withdrew their Harriers from service and put them in store. US Navy wants all 74 of them plus available stores of spares for the Marine Corps. The USN expects to get the recently upgraded jets at bargain prices, and says the conversion to US standards is easily made. The Marines will use the Harriers to replace some of their F-18Ds which need to be retired. And the Harriers provide a hedge against further F-35 delays.
India successfully test-fires Agni IV ICBM The last test, December 2010, failed. This one succeeded at 3,000-km range. when operational Agni IV will give India all-China coverage. The Chinese have, of course, for years had all-India coverage.
Incidentally, the 17-ton, 800-kg payload missile was launched from a truck. Interesting.
Prime Minister of Indian state of Uttar Pradesh proposes a division into four states UP has already been divided, in that the mountain districts were split into a separate state and the eastern districts joined to another new state. even the diminished UP is equal to one of the largest countries in the world, population wise. So it does need to be split.
But what we don't understand is - and hope readers can explain this - how does splitting UP benefit the current Chief Minister, the amazingly corrupt Ms. Mayawati? Why would she want to diminish her power?

0230 GMT November 16, 2011

"My Little Cesspool"" Reader Luxembourg in Chicago

Local CBS station, Channel 2 Chicago had a report about Huffington's new book "How to Overthrow the Government." It details all the insider trading that people in Congress do. Chief among them was Chicago's new Mayor/Glory Boy/Media Darling/Democrat/former Obama Chief of Staff Rahm Emmanuel.
Rahm served on the boards of Fannie Mae/Freddy Mac, cashed in his chips right before they imploded for a nice bundle of change, and I believe he also got a couple of pensions out of it too. Low life has been living off the public trough his whole life, was the guy who pushed the Solyndra billions down the toilet, same guy who last week proposed a $1,200 fine for weeds in Chicago. The Chicago Way. Our Fearless Leader is well schooled in it. Madigan has been Speaker forever, working on his 5th Governor, he's really the Governor, top of the list for a prison cell - except his daughter Lisa Madigan is the Illinois Atty General. Convenient huh ? My Lil cesspool.
My property taxes have doubled in the last 5 years like yours. County Treasurer didn't even try to hide it, sent an insert with the bill unfunded pensions. State, County and City employees - union-loyal Democrat votes.
Editor's reponse We were discussing Congressional wheeling dealing, lobbyists, pay-offs and the like with a Washington insider the other day. Insider merely expressed amusement at our outrage. This is a summary of what he said.
Life is about competing interests, whether you're talking of your marriage, your children, your boss, your local government, your Congress, international alliances, whatever. if everyone stood on principle, what would you get? No need to guess, because we're already there. You'd get gridlock. Life is about compromises. The compromises that Congresspersons have to make have been compared to making sausages: the product may be yummy, but the making would, frankly, lead you to puke.
Previously the sausage-making process was hidden from Congress in that the work of the committees was not publicized. So you, as Jane and John Q Public, got mainly to hear about the debate when bills came to the floor. But they came to the floor after the real work had been done behind the scenes. As a consequence of Watergate, the American people demanded transparency from Congress. The got it. And the Law of Unintended Consequences took over. Since the people are now exposed to the sausage-making, the deals they can cut have become fewer and fewer. The internet has led to a situation where the minute your Congressperson does something some constituents don't like, a campaign is immediately launched to punish the heretic.
The citizens influencing Congress are by no means the majority. The majority accepts compromise. The citizens who get after their Congressperson are the activists, and their views, ignorance, and passion rule.
There is NO Democrat who doesn't realize the Age of Entitlement is over. There is NO Republican who doesn't realize taxes have to be raised. Congresspeople are far from stupid; it takes a great deal of smarts just to get elected. But in this age of transparency and the Internet, both sides are being held hostage by their activists. The activists do not represent the will of the majority. They represent their own interests, which may be ideological purity, or downright dirty self-serving. The majority is willing to accept more taxes and entitlement cuts. The activists on both sides are having nothing to do with compromise, the dirtiest of all dirty words.
Because the activists bring passion and ignorance to the table, they shape not just the debate, but also the vote.That's why nothing is getting done. And you, Mr. Editor, are one of those ideological activists when it comes to American foreign policy. You don't want to compromise. Bomb North Korea. Whack Iran. Hang Assad of Syria. Execute terrorists on capture. Abandon Israel. Double defense spending and station five carrier battlegroups in the China Seas, as was the case in Second Indochina. Snatch Chinese satellites from space. Drone Al-Shabab. Embargo Venezuela till Chavez falls. Destabilize Evo of Bolivia. Machinegun anyone who crosses America's borders except with valid papers presented at a customs entry point. Impose 200% countervailing duties on Chinese imports. Mr. Editor, uou're as much as problem as those you criticize for the gridlock.
(In case you're wondering which Editor the Washington Insider is referring to, it is yours truly. Editor doesn't say these things because he doesn't want to be to the extreme right of the American right, and lose whatever credibility he has. Of course, readers will say anyone who can never get a date for any day of the week has no credibility to begin with, because there is no person anywhere in the world who doesn't get any date at all. (Editor's request to readers: lets not get personal and abusive here, folks.)
So there you have it, folks. Doubtless graft and grift is more open in Chicago than most other places. But East, West, South, or North of Eden, little town, big town, metropolis, your town's governing body or the office of the US president (ditto the rest of the world) everything is drowned in corruption. Its the human condition. What is to be done? Editor has no idea.
Occupy Wall Street Being one of the 99%, Editor has a certain sympathy with the Occupy lot. Still, as someone pointed out to us, why were occupy people being given a pass from permits and other such stuff, and what is this camping business when they're creating a major public nuisance. Etc.
New York cleaned out Zucotti Park yesterday 1 AM. Occupy challenged in court, court ruled for the city. Mayor Bloomberg says demonstrators can return, but not to camp. Even though Bloomberg is one of the 1%, we have to admit this is reasonable. After all, Occupy don't own the places they occupy, and others are deprived of the use of the parks.
Zucotti, we learned, is actually private property. Presumably the owner, a reality company, is one of the 1% - a building in downtown Manhattan has got to cost several tens of millions. So this was pretty decent of them to let protesters use their property till now, at least.
With the exception of Oakland, the authorities have gone out of their way to avoid violence. This is quite remarkable given we are talking of American authorities. In a strange sort of way we suspect that (a) even the authorities have sympathy with the demonstrators, and (b) after the Arab spring even Americans are cautious about clubbing demonstrators and so on.
One New York Occupier said the clamp-down was good, because now five volunteers would come for every one previously present. We don't think so, because people are not banned from demonstrating, no heads were broken, and so on.
The other peculiar thing is we read a lot of people and hear some saying: "Occupy has made its point, now what do they propose to do to change things? Why are they not organizing political campaigns and so on, because after all, that's the way things are changed in America." Americans are essentially a practical people, and really have no time for romantic anarchists. The whole Self-Improvement thing in America is all about: "You have a problem that bugs you? Work to change it."
Just imagine: American professor finds attractive people get paid more and are more successful So we're waiting for the study that discovers the sun rises in the east, that chocolate taste good, and that death and taxes are inevitable. Of course, it had to be UK Daily Mail that published the story. All its weird stories on yesterday's front page are from America except one. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2061405/It-pays-pretty-Professor-s-20-year-study-reveals-good-looking-employees-paid-better-perks.html

0230 GMT November 15, 2011

Greek conservatives refuse to sign austerity pledge saying that while they support fiscal austerity, they reject anything that makes Greece's current economic situation worse. The conservatives New Democracy has 84 seats and its ally the Popular Orthodox has 16. That is 100 seats in a 300 person Parliament.
The conservatives have said they will join a national unity government with the Greek Socialists (152 seats). But if they maintain their stance there will be trouble, because many in the Socialists and other parties are also against harsh economic policies dictated by Brussels. Its too early to tell yet, but it is possible the Greek Parliament will reject the conditions of the EU bail-out.
On the other side, the EU is absolutely adamant that Greece accept not just harsh measures, but also observers who will intrusively monitor Greek finances. While Greece could arrive at a situation where the current prime minister feels new elections are neccessary to give him a mandate to rule - and to impose Brussels-mandated measures, the EU is also adamant that these measures be unilaterally accepted by Greece and not be subject to political decisions. The EU has said if its conditions are not met as is, there will be no bail out.
While the big bail out of 130-billion Euros is not due till January 2012, so that theoretically there is time to work out a solution at home, a smaller bailout of about 5-billion Euros is due in the next few weeks, and presumably EU will withhold that if its demands are not met.
Please keep in mind this 130-billion Euro package is the second large bail out. The first, 110-billion Euros, was agreed on in May 2010, and there has been a constant pattern of EU bullying Greece at each step.
Will Greece's famous prickly pride get in the way of the bail-out? Are both sides playing chicken to see who blinks first? - the failure of Greece will be the end of the Eurozone as we know it, so the cunning Greeks may still have some cards to play. Or is Greece so beaten down economically that it will simply accept every humiliation the EU imposes? Stay tuned.
The EU is anti-democratic What is truly horrifying about all this is that the EU has very clearly implied it does not believe in democracy. At all costs it wants to avoid a Greek referendum on the bail-out, which of course will become a referendum on the European Union and which could well end very badly for the dream of a united Europe. It has clearly stated that it has no time for the messy process of people having their say and coming to a consensus. EU says its bureaucrats know best, and Their Will Will Be Done - or else. The EU's stand is all the more astonishing because the EU is composed of vibrant democracies. They seem to have elected a supra-national body that has no use for democracy.
It seems to us that the EU's position is counterproductive. It's all fine and well to say: "We've all put too much into creation of the EU to have the will of the people destroy the EU", but sooner or later people in the Union will have their say. if the Greek people reject the EU's term, it is not as if the Greek government can stage a coup and subordinate itself to Brussels. The Greek government will have to obey the will of its people.
It seems to us better to allow democracy to arrive at a consensus - frustrating, time-consuming, and down-right risky as the process may be, as we well known in America. Ultimately it is a question of legitimacy. Right now the EU is flirting with illegitimacy by refusing to let Greeks decide for themselves. How can this be good for the long-term health of the EU?
Oh the irony of it all if you have played the board game "Diplomacy", you will know how rapidly Germany comes to dominate the board, and how it invariably loses, assuming all plays are equally skilled. In fact, Editor can share with you that about the only way to win the game is to play Britain, and you can sometimes win if you play Russia.
The reason for Germany's rapid rise its strategic position in Central Europe. The reason for its fall is that ultimately everyone comes to their sense, forms unlikely alliances, and defeats Germany.
No experts on medieval European history we, but if you will permit a simplification, the successor to the Roman Empire was the Holy Roman Empire, a lethal combination of church and military power. The Holy Roman Empire was, of course, dominated till its end by what became Germany. When France - which had been one kingdom with Germany, broke off to become a major power, France and Germany clashed and France was defeated thrice - Franco-Prussian War, World War I and II.
When World War II broke, a very fed up world - which at the time really meant US and Europe - decided Germany had to be put down once and for all. Of course, if the US had stayed out of the European war, its quite possible in Europe at least it would have been Deutschland Uber Alles.
Once Germany was defeated in 1945, the west at least decided it had to avoid the mistakes of 1918. West Germany was not punished, it was rebuilt, but this time it was placed into a tight alliance with the west. The idea was for Germany not to be able to move in any direction because it had too much to lose. When the USSR fell, Germany became reunified, and it became all the important to lock Germany down.
But in the Year of Our Lord 2011, who is giving the marching orders in Europe. Its Germany.
And Germany has even stopped pretending that it is in alliance with France. It's made very clear if the worst comes to the worst, and the Euro collapses, and a two-tier EU happens, France should not automatically assume it will be part of the first tier. Austria, Finland, Netherlands will be part of the first tier. Ring any bells, people?
If someone in 1945 had written a novel mirroring actual events of 1945-2011, s/he would have been credited with a fantastic imagination. Truth can be stranger than fiction. The rise of Germany - once again - to dominate Europe is an example.
Please note, BTW, that this time, unlike in 1917 and 1941, there is no Russia/Soviet Union to block Germany's rise to the East.

0230 GMT November 14, 2011

Chinese ratings agency warns of another possible US downgrade Dagong Global Credit Rating a year ago downgraded the US from AA to A+. In August it dropped the US to A. Now its is threatening to drop the US further.
Any normal American reading this news will be tempted to say "$#@&*$ China and (*&^%$#@ Dagong, whoever they are". But look at how the US looks to the rest of the world. We can't even get a national budget passed, plans to reduce the deficit are gridlocked, and even if those plans passed, all they would achieve is slow done the inexorable march to a Banana Republic like level of debt. We're already at 100% of GDP, by the way, a distinction we reached in August. For 2011, our budget deficit is 10%, which is definitely Banana Republic Land. The world is beating up Italy, but its 2011 budget deficit is 4%.
Now, of course as with any financial figures you can slice and dice anyway you like to prove your pet point. So you can the US dollar is the world's reserve currency, the Euro is not, so that when we issue more debt, we are really just owing ourselves. Only a bit more than a quarter our debt is owned by foreigners. Its not the same for Italy, where foreigners own about half the debt (all figures approximate). Americans can further argue that if the foreigners were to sell their holdings, where would they put the money? Certainly the yen, yuan, and euro are not candidates for trillions of dollars worth of bonds. Etc.
Okay, we can fudge the figures all we want, but can we at least concede the possibility that foreigners looking at our debt will not look at it under the most favorable set of parameters? Dagong is said to be an independent ratings agency that does not take its cue from Communist Party of China headquarters. and we can't even claim to be in Italy's position: with the exception of interest, Italy runs a budget surplus. We are nowhere near that happy state.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/nov/12/chins-threatens-us-with-new-debt-downgrade
Libya and Egypt In case you're wondering, nothing particularly happy-making is happening in Libya or Egypt. Libya is dividing along tribal lines (not unexpected), and in Tripoli rival militias from time to time have a go at each other. You have thousands of armed young men, seemingly answerable to no one, and the prospect suffices to make anyone nervous. A national unity government has still not been formed.
In Egypt the Army has made it clear it will not give up power, no matter what the people want. Actually, the majority are still happy to support the army, because they fear the chaos that true democracy will bring.
But again, none of this is any reason to worry. Revolutions take time to play out. In Iraq, for example, but for the US troop presence, there would have been a bloody civil war that might still be continuing.
Syria After being told by the Arab League that it is being suspended, Damascus has shifted to a 2-track policy. On the one hand, Arab embassies are being attacked. Turkey is flying its diplomatic staff and nationals out. On the other, the regime is telling the Arab League, no need to suspend us, lets continue talking and we'll even agree to your stationing observers.
The problem is the AL moved only after Syria repeatedly refused to implement its agreement with the AL which was intended to pave the way for a peaceful resolution. Damascus is now worried that with the AL disowning Syria, the way for international intervention could be open. So far Russia and China have been covering president Assad's sorry behind at the UN, and blocking strict action. But if the AL makes Syria a pariah, Moscow and Beijing are going to be hard-pressed to defend Assad.
Shocking news Reader Luxembourg sends the results of British studies suggesting "that when men see a woman wearing very little they focus on her body and less on her mind." http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-2060374/Men-women-bare-flesh-regarded-intelligent-study-finds.html?ITO=1490
What's really shocking about this is the implication that men have ANY focus whatsoever on women's minds.

0230 GMT November 13, 2011

US Marines/Darwin, Australia As far as we've been able to figure, USMC will use Darwin for training and advance basing of equipment. If this is correct, we estimate less than 100 Marines will be permanently stationed at Darwin.
Former Assistant Secretary for State Roger Noriega says according to his sources poor Hugo is going to cash in his chips for sure, possibly in less than six months.
Italy we were sad to learn our fave political playboy Bunga Bunga Berlo was forced to leave via a side door of the Presidential Palace to escape a crowd of thousands chanting "buffoon, buffoon." This is just so rude.
Meanwhile, though Italian Parliament has passed an austerity package, well-known - and cynical - economist Nouriel Roubini says it will be evident by the end of next year that the package is insufficient.
Also meanwhile, we learn Berlo's successor will get a salary of 25,000 Euros (about $35,000) a month - for life, doesn't matter how long or not his government lasts. This salary is given to a Senator for life, and Monti has not stood for office to become Senator for Life. The Italian Prez appointed him. Something is not ethical in the Land of Italy.
Keystone XL Pipeline The route is going to be reviewed. Meanwhile, other pipeline operators have contingency plans to increase the throughput of their pipelines to take Alberta tar sands oil. Apparently its a matter of more powerful pumping stations. Some thought has been given to a refinery in Alberta, but apparently this will be more expensive than sending the oil to US Gulf Coast refineries. Further on the horizon are other contingency plans to move the crude to US pipeheads using rail or barge, which of course will increase the carbon footprint.
Don't except a rerouted pipeline to end the controversy. Greens have gotten it into their head that Alberta tar sands should be blocked because of the carbon footprint.
Meanwhile, many Canadians think a west-east pipeline should be built, to take Alberta oil to Eastern Canada, where it would replace Saudi-origin imports. Tar sand interests have been threatening a pipeline to the Pacific for China to pick up the oil, but environmentalists say that the pipeline will cross the land of several Indian tribes who are opposed to it. So they don't see that alternative as a serious proposition.
Russia's Mars Jinx Continues Sixteen of 18 Russian Mars missions have failed. The current mission to the Martian moon Phoebus, where the probe was supposed to scoop up material and return it to earth for study, is in trouble. It was also to out a Chinese satellite in Mars orbit. Russian sources say the mission has failed, and the announcement will be made in a few days.
Though the probe reached orbit as planned, the probe's booster rocket did not fire so the probe did not begin its journey. While Russian scientists were working on the problem, revival was considered a long shot, and now is no shot at all. The Russians spent only $167-million on the probe, which suggests that many design compromises were made.
Meanwhile, Reader Luxembourg updates us on the US Curiosity Mars Rover The launch is set for November 25. The rover is the size of a Volkswagen, and will explore Gale Crater for two years. The price tag is $2.5-billion, and makes us a bit nervous. If it all works as it should, doubtless Curiosity will be spectacular success. But the US's all-or-nothing approach is worrying, because things go wrong all the time. Perhaps two missions within that budget would have been more prudent, even if the science return is less. This way if one fails, there would be a backup. If Curiosity fails, that will be it for a good long while.
Spirit and Opportunity, launched eight years ago, have cost $1-billion including five extensions, which have given 25-times the 90-day mission time originally planned for. Each rover weighed 185-kg as opposed to Curiosity's 900-kg. It will traverse 19-km, as opposed to the planned 600-meters for the earlier pair.
The Hypocrisy of Michael Moore UK Daily Mail has done something useful for once. It has broken the news, including photographs, of Michael Moore's nice country home, said to be worth $1-million. If you look at the size of the thing its likely more. He also owns an apartment in New York. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2060704/Luxury-99-cent-Americans-dream--Photographs-reveal-Michael-Moores-stunning-waterfront-mansion.html
Okay, so there's nothing that says a "radical" has to live in a one-room apartment and own only two pairs of jeans and eat rice-and-beans every day. But for Mr. MM to be cavorting with the 99% lot is a bit much. He needs to have the decency to announce "mea culpa" and all that, and explain he grew modestly wealthy leading counter-culture attacks on the 1%, but thanks to his good luck and hard work, he is now one of the 1%. Then he should have the decency to shut his mouth and go do whatever the 1% does for amusement.

0230 GMT November 12, 2011

Greece Unemployment is 19%, and the real process of squeezing the Greek people for money to pay the nation's debts has just begun. And by 2020, debt will still be 120% - a level held untenable for Italy, which has a much more robust economy than Greece's.
We'd like the learned financial institutions of the EU to tell us: do you really think you are going your money back, even if you've accepted a 50% write-off?
Veteran's Day In Britain they call it Armistice Day, because the World War I ceasefire was called at 110 on November 11. Apparently only 52 of England and Wales' 16,000 villages escaped losing someone killed in the war, and no villages in Ireland or Scotland have so been identified. The British call them "Thankful Villages". Fourteen villages are termed as doubly thankful, because all their men came home alive from both World Wars. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-15671943
Penn State This is truly none of our business, but we though readers might be interested in the law as related to teacher responsibilities. Teachers are supposed to report any case where they even suspect - just suspect - that child abuse is taking place. That includes all abuse, not just sexual abuse. A teacher cannot just go to an administrator and then maintain s/he has done their duty. The law, at least in Maryland, is the teacher must contact Child Protective Services as soon as possible, and file a report, at least first orally, then on paper. It is not for a teacher to investigate. The standard is "suspect". Failure to report on suspicion can lead to the loss of the teacher's job, plus other action as may be taken.
The teacher's name is not given to anyone - her/his anonymity is shielded by law.
This creates an Orwellian situation. Anyone - absolutely anyone - can call Child Protective services and say "I believe Mr. Smith (or Mrs. Smith) is abusing her/his child", without the least basis, and Child Protective Services swoops in. "Specially trained" officials interview your child, to "discover the truth". It doesn't matter if you try hard enough, you can get a four- or a six-year old to say anything. Your children (all of them) can be taken away from you, and you can go to jail. Once freed, you are a registered sex offender, and society may as well brand your forehead, because the consequences are the same.
We like to believe society holds a person innocent till proven guilty. In child abuse situations, its the other way around: you have to prove to the satisfaction of the investigating officers that you are innocent. And aside from any over-zealousness of the sort people who have power exhibit, the Child Protective Service staff are also under pressure. If they make a mistake, and it turns out abuse has taken place, well, their jobs are on the line too.
Editor has always been struck by the extreme hypocrisy we Americans exhibit toward our children. We are so very ready to abandon them just because we are not getting on with our partner, and we are so very comfortable that so many children live in poverty and/or without health insurance. It seems almost as if we know we as a society treat our children badly, and we excuse ourselves by showing our "concern" when a child may be abused.
Editor twice was in situations where he suspected abuse. Knowing the law, he immediately made his reports in required format. In one situation it was obvious his student was severely undernourished. Since the student was older than 18, Editor talked to him several times to find out what the problem might be. The student's answers were highly evasive, and it was pretty obvious the student was trying to protect his mother. Well, when the investigation took place it turned out the woman had a low-paying job, was desperately in debt, the father had run off years ago and no support was forthcoming, and she was working three jobs to pay her bills. She received food stamps, and by mid-week those were gone, so for three days in the week it was scraping by as best as possible. Obviously the student would protect his mother. He dropped out of school shortly after the investigation, because he didn't want to come back to a place where the adults knew how poor he was.
In the second case, Editor had a student who went through episodes of wild anger followed by complete listlessness and lack of interest in anything. One day after she got into a physical fight, instead of calling the administrator Editor took her out of the room to ask what was the problem. She said she hadn't been getting along with her mother and now her mother had thrown her out of the house. (She was sixteen.) She was moving between houses, staying with friends or anyone who offered to help, then moving on when it got too much for those helping her. She begged Editor not to tell anyone, because it would get around and the other students would be even more mean to her.
Unfortunately, under the law Editor had no choice. He made his report. What happened he doesn't know - the authorities are in no way obligated to tell the person reporting what happened. The student did finish out the year and Editor heard she had gone to live with her sister in another city.
Letter from Eric Cox You have accurately described the dilemma of many American homeowners. In spite of its many problems, California passed something called Proposition 13 back in 1978. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_13_%281978%29_
This did not prevent the rise in property taxes but it did severely limit the rate of their increase, except in the event of a sale, when the buyers at least knew what burden they were assuming. State and local government spending in California has still increased annually, but I cannot doubt that both would have increased more without Prop 13.
You are also correct to note that your wages have not increased 50 % in seven years. I suspect that adjusted for inflation (the stretching of the measuring stick) they have not gone up 50% in twenty years or more. That has certainly been true for workers in the industries that I follow. The exception, of course, is unionized government employees, (some of whom are also work for the government), who have done better. (Without considering compounding, 50% in seven years is just over 7% per year, and inflation has been very tame over that same period.)
The government spending we have is not sustainable under our present system of government. As you correctly note, other countries spend a higher percentage of their GDP as government expenditures. And, they have systems of government that differ from ours.
So, either the level of government spending must changed or our system of government must be changed. Details can be argued, but the basic issue is starkly clear.
I hope your employment situation improves and that you get a date for Friday night.
Editor's comment Well, here it is 2030 Friday night local time, and Editor is working on the update. No need to guess if the Editor got a date. The sad truth - the Editor is compelled to explain - is that for 43 years he was married, to someone or the other. He has no idea how to get a date. And at his age it does not help when the Editor says to a potential datee, so as to speak, "Well, if I use the money I keep in the car for parking meters we might just be able to afford a plain hamburger at McDonald's - without the fires and soda". Adult women are not terribly attracted to people who offer very cheap dates at McDonald's. And you really cannot let the date pay. It was not done in Editor's day, and there is no way he is going to change. In all his life, he has gone out with only one woman who insisted she pay and Editor did not mind. This is when he was a fiery intellectual in India and a married lady old enough to be his daughter decided he was wildly interesting. When she was about to pay the dinner bill, Editor stopped her. She said: "Don't be silly. My husband is the biggest tax evader this side of town. I have more money than I know what to do with." Editor said: "Oh, I don't mind you spending your husband's money on me." There were many dinners till Mrs. R. IV inconveniently returned early to town and put an end to that. Wives have no sense of humor. Its very easy to get dates when you're married. When you're not, your date value drops faster than Greek debt. Its no use lying: women can tell at 20 paces if a man is married or not. (If Mrs. R IV is reading this, she will be ROTFL - "Wildly interesting? Him? I was married to him for over 30 years. A bigger bore there never was. He'd insist on going to bed at nine." Well, they say no man is a hero to his wife, and they say right. Uh oh: its 2050 - gotta rush, time for bed.

0230 GMT November 11, 2011

Why UK does not want a 2-tier Europe We'd confessed bafflement at UK's opposition to a 2-tier EU, which France and Germany are plotting. UK telegraph has an explanation which leaves us just as confused. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8882643/France-plots-eurozone-breakaway-group.html
A 2-tier EU will reduce UK's influence. Wish we could figure out how.
One thing we could figure out was that while Germany and France are plotting a 2-tier EU, they are also blackmailing UK. If UK does not accept the changes France/Germany want to the Lisbon Treaty, the French/Germans are threatening a split. Paris/Bonn want to cut London out of the proposed changes, which will be conducted on a take-it-or-leave-it basis. Very complicated. American politics are so much simpler.
Italy As nearly as we can tell from Fast and Furious reading of the press, Italy has $400-billion of debt due in 2012. It is paying 3% more than it was earlier. That equates to an extra burden of $12-billion on the Italian exchequer. Italy's 2012 GDP is expected at about $2.3-trillion and its government spending is 49% of GDP, or about $1.1-trillion. We calculate that extra $12-billion is 1% of Government spending.
Plus, Italy runs a primary budget surplus, which means that other than its debt interest, it runs a surplus. So actually Italy is in very good shape compared to many other countries, and according to us, the danger of default is low.
So clearly Editor is brilliant, and congratulates himself on his astute analysis. which leaves the question why everyone is freaking out about an Italian default. another mystery.
Amplification on US government spending The other day we'd mentioned US government expenditure (all levels) is about 40% of GDP. We wanted to clarify that doesn't mean Americans pay 40% of their income in taxes. The US runs a huge deficit, in FY2011 it was 8.7% or $1.3-trillion. That indicates the US takes about 31-32% of GDP in taxes, which compared to the other developed countries is quite low.
Talking about taxes Editor got his annual notification from the bank that he was in escrow deficit and will have to up his monthly payment. November 1, 2004 is when Mrs. R. IV officially left the house. In the seven years since, assessed value of the house has gone up 10%. Property taxes/insurance have gone up by 50%. Editor is now paying $6000/year in property taxes/insurance for a house with 1000-square-feet and land of 7000-square-feet. It's like Dorothy said: "I - I don't think we're in Kansas anymore, Toto".
Editor is sure Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley, Montgomery County Executive Isaiah Leggett, and whoever is mayor of the City of Takoma Park - we had an election the other day, so Editor doesn't know who's the mayor; in fact, he's never known who is the mayor - have a perfectly rational explanation for all this. But Editor's income hasn't gone up by 50%. One buys a home intending to live in the rest of one's life, one settles down in a community. and then one has to one day sell and move to some place in the far boonies away from friends where there are few jobs, just because one can't pay the ever escalating property taxes? Oh, Editor gets it: THIS is the American dream.
Editor knows country is in trouble. He has no issue with paying more federal tax. Its the state and property taxes that are killing him, not the IRS. And by the way, since Editor is a public servant (only employed part-time at this moment, it is true, but a public servant nonetheless) he can attest the salaries of county and state workers haven't gone up anywhere near 50% either. Nor have services increased. It's a big mystery.
Secretary of Defense says Israeli attack on Iran could have unintended consequences Editor reels in worshipful admiration of our SecDef's Great Mind! What a genius! We need something more advanced than the Mensa society to accommodate people like our SecDef! America is truly supreme with people like him at the helm! Take that you dirty Chinese and take that you dirty Indians, do you think you can EVER overtake the US? Have you a single leader as skilled in stating the obvious as our SecDef? Die, scumbags, you don't have a chance! America Rules!
SecDef says an attack will set Iran nuclear program back only a few years Quelle genius! (Repeat the above praise three times.)
Yes, Obviousman, you are right. That's why a few years down the road you simply attack it again. Duh.
By the way, not to be like Obviousman, but you really do not need to attack 20, 50, or 200 or however many installations people say you need to attack to cripple Iran's N-program. You need to hit facilities producing fissile material, combined with tightening sanctions still further so that Iran finds it that much harder to rebuild.
And yes, if you hit fissile material production, there's a danger you'll release radiation into the atmosphere. So what, now we have to save a rogue state from environmental pollution? A single warhead on Tel Aviv, Berlin, or New York is going to cause a great deal more radiation.
Also, the calculations Israel will have to cross Turkish, Syrian, Iraqi, or Saudi airspace enroute to Iranian targets is also not correct. There's something called air-to-air to refueling. Though its hard to see what the Syrians can do if the Israelis decide to cross.
Agreed Israel will need more than one raid. This is not an Osirak situation. So what? What exactly is the junk heap called the Iranian Air Force going to do? If aircraft are to risky, there's cruise missiles. And if some aircraft get shot down, so what? Whose Mama promised anyone that military action is risk-free and casualty-free? The aircraft casualties in the US raid on Ploesti were 33%. The bulk of the damage was made good in weeks, and output climbed higher than before. So Ploesti shouldn't have been attacked? Nonsense. US/UK lost 40,000 combat aircraft during the strategic bombing of Germany. So they should not have carried the war to Germany?
When there's a mortal threat to your country, you do what you have to do. People need to stop spewing bilgewater on the subject of the difficulties of an Israeli strike on Iran.

0230 GMT November 10, 2011

The Telegraph's Matt cartoon for November 9, 2011, has a demonstrator saying: "I plan to get my student debt up to a level that forces the IMF to bail me out." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
Is there light at the end of Euro Tunnel? France, Germany discuss a "core" Eurozone. In brief, the new Eurozone would kick out those who don't want to be in the zone, or cannot afford it. Simultaneously, a European confederation would be created with all of the current 27 members, with plans to add eight more in the next ten years. presumably the non-core countries will keep their own currencies, but enjoy all the benfits of free trade, open labor markets and so on. Apparently France and Germany have been talking about this for months, and a conference is being held on December 9.
Much to our surprise, the British of all people are objecting. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/09/us-eurozone-future-sarkozy-idUSTRE7A85VV20111109 So are the Austrians and the Dutch, though they will likely be part of the core Euro zone. While some Europeans may not want to weaken the idea of Europe, we simply do not understand why the British, who have opposed joining the Euro or even confederating with Europe, are having a problem. Perhaps our readers can explain? does this have to do with fears of an even more powerful Germany? Is this a playout of British foreign policy for two centuries which requires no one power to be dominant in Europe? If so, let the Brits join the core Euro zone. Why force countries who cannot stay in to remain? Are British bankers they will lose money if the Euro zone goes on a diet? Sorry, fellers, that money is gone, gone, gone. Better to accept it than drive the Greeks, Italians, Spanish, Portuguese, completely bananas and overthrow the existing financial order.
Meanwhile, regardless of fears that the core Euro zone will mean the end of Europe as we know it, there are two considerations. One, if the current Euro zone cannot work, which it cannot, it makes no difference what Euro-federalists want. As we said yesterday, economics is economics. Two, drop-out or expellees can rejoin the core Euro zone they are ready. It was totally absurd to equate, say, Germany and Greece and assume both could amicably exist in a common Euro zone. Those who would continue throwing money at past mistakes have no answer for who is going to do the money throwing. Right now Sakrozy and Merkel are channeling their inner Bob Dylans and singing "It Aint Me, Babe."
Meantime, of course, the markets keep going up and down, down and up, as if they are puppets controlled by some all-powerful puppet master. (Must be the Venetian Bankers. Only kidding.) (Why do we have to add "only kidding"? Does anyone take the Venetian Bankers theory seriously?)
Some argue Italy has not reached end of the road yet Normally, when sovereign bonds cross 7.3% as Italian bonds have done, there's no turning back. Its on to 8% and bail out time, baby, as Austin Powers might say. But some argue that Italy is not yet done in, it can sustain higher yields because though its debt is 120% of GDP, its deficit is relatively small. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/10/business/global/italy-pushed-closer-to-financial-brink.html
Italy 2- and 10-year bonds are both above 7%, and it is the 3rd largest bond market in the world. The Economist says investors are ditching Irish, Spanish, Belgian, and French sovereign debt as well. http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/11/euro-crisis-5
Is India preparing for the fourth-generation of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty to take over? Speculation is that Mrs. Sonia Gandhi, the head of the Congress Party, is preparing to hand over power to her son, Rahul, who is 41 years old. She has not been well, and was about to give her first public speech since her return from New York last summer. But she is again sick, with what the Indians call "viral fever". This is the good old dengue fever. Editor having gotten it twice can attest it is no joke. He got it in his thirties and was sick for three weeks. Every day he thought Upstairs had decided to cash in his chips. The illness is, of course, survivable; relatively few people die of it. But if Mrs. Gandhi has not fully recovered from the illness that took her to New York's Sloan Kettering hospital earlier this year, or there is a recurrence, or if she is just plain exhausted from being in Indian politics for thirty years, she may want to hand over power to Rahul.
Which will cause a great disaster. There is no doubt this youngster has a popular following among the villagers and the poor, mainly because of his habit of spending days and nights in India's villages, living as do the people, so as to speak. But running India at age 41? Not a chance.
Sometimes people are hard to understand Accuser Number 4 (AN4) of Herman Cain, of 999 and Pizza Fame who would be Prez of America, denied ever meeting AN4, let alone doing the - er - ungentlemanly things she accuses him of. Okay. So now a radio producer corroborates her story that she met him October 1, 2011. Okay, so Herman lied or he has amnesia or whatever. That isn't the issue. The radio producer says that initially Herman was all smiles, but then turned "stone-faced". Okay, that also corroborates what AN4 has said. No confusion here.
But here comes our confusion: AN4 was seen by the radio producer, a woman, to put her arms around Herman. They sort of embraced, says the producer. http://www.cnn.com/2011/11/09/politics/cain-bialek/index.html
Why on earth would AN4 put her arms around Herman, given what she says she went through? This is what we don't understand.

0230 GMT November 9, 2011

Europe and self-deception In one's personal affairs, one can deceive oneself forever. But economics is a ruthless taskmaster (or taskmistresses, if one wants to be politically correct). You can babble all you want, but the market will have its way according to its own pitiless logic.
Please notice that Greece has already defaulted, though the Euros are running around screaming at the tops of their voices it 'aint so. But it so, because a 50% reduction is a default. Not as bad as a 100% default, but default nonetheless. But do we hear the D word used anywhere? We don't. Further, it has been obvious for some weeks that Greece has no choice but to quit the Euro because it cannot pay back even the 50% reduced debts it owes.
Now on to Italy. Italy debt is $2.5-trillion, a tad more than Greece's about $350-billion, though given Greece's propensity for magical bookkeeping, who knows if it is $350-billion or a lot more.
Be that as it may. Yesterday the Austrians said that Italy is too big to bail, and it is going to have to save itself. Bringing down a $2.5-trillion debt to something reasonable will require incredible sacrifices by the Italians. Is Europe going to accept Italy cannot be bailed out? After all, all the bailout money has to come from somewhere, and that ultimately means Germany, and the Germans are already mad as heck. Think how mad they're going to get when they have to produce - say - $4-trillion to bail out Italy, Spain, and Portugal
So we can expect further self-deception.
Are we being typical ignorant Americans who don't understand the sophistication, the intellectual power, the unmatched understanding of economics that the Euros claim to have? Is this post just another cheap Euro-Bash?
No, because we've said enough times that America too is in denial. Its debt is manageable right now because interest rates are so low. But first, God did not tell Moses that American interest rates are going to remain absurdly low for as long as America needs to get its affairs in order. And second, America's idea of debt reduction is to add "only" $8-trillion or more in debt over the next ten years. That's if things according to plan. if they don't, to put it as politely as possible, we're up poo-doo creek without a paddle and indeed, without even a boat. Gross American debt is already almost 100% of GDP: ten trillion smackeroos public debt, and five trillion clams in intergovernmental debt. US is paying about 2.5% on its debt, about $400-billion a year. (All these figures are rounded off/approximate). So say interest rates went up to 3.75%, we'd be paying $600-billion. That's on the current debt, not the debt we're about to assume in the next ten years. At that higher rate, we could be paying close to a trillion on the national debt.
And if Italy is too big to bail, what about America, with its seven-times larger economy?
So we're not Euro-Bashing. We're just saying short of a miracle, Europe is heading for the latrines if it doesn't tighten its belt so tight that the stars on the 1 Euro coin have to switch out their lights. We read many people in Greece have lost a third, a half, even two-thirds of their income - and the stringency has only begun. Barring that miracle, and the last certified one happened 2011 years ago, the Greeks may one day be talking of the halcyon days of 2011 prosperity.
Of course, there are those who think the Euro is doomed when Greece defaults further. http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100013174/once-greece-goes-the-whole-euro-project-will-unravel/
The Greek political crisis explained: Reader Flymike's friend sent him this Here is the end of day post I promised. I wrote the following note about the referendum while Papandreou was still in France. It is written from a Poli-Sci point of view and not a business one. As you know, the referendum never came to be. There are 3 reasons for this:
1) Papandreou did not foresee the huge backlash from other European leaders.
2) The Greek Parliament is made up of 300 members. Papandreou only had 152 members on his side. Upon returning from France there were threats he would lose more and without a majority he would have to give up his position as Prime Minister.
3) Even if his own had stood with him, the country is bankrupt. There is not enough money in the coffers to continue to pay wages. Without immediate funds from the EU, the country could not survive. The country did not have enough money to last until the December 4th referendum.
Personally I wish the referendum would have taken place. It would have shut a lot of mouths and allowed the country to move forward. Under the stern & watchful eye of the EU, Greece would have to curb spending. With a referendum, the Greeks would have had to state a definite yes or no to staying in the EU and with the Euro. I do not see how they could have said no, but either way, Greece’s part in “rocking the world markets” would have ceased. As it stands, Greece will still remain with the Euro, but with a divided voice. Thus the country will remain in turmoil and still disrupt world markets. Add the Italian Opera to the Greek Tragedy and the mess continues.
Reader Luxembourg forwarded this letter from a transportation person which explains why America cant build anything any more. "I’m a civil engineer with a little over ten years in transportation design, and I’ve witnessed first hand the chaos the industry has fallen into. I worked with a private consultant for state and local transportation agencies, and the whole shovel-ready mess wrecked our long term plans by using up most of the available funding in short-term projects. The process now takes four to six years for even a small project to go through, so when everyone moved projects up to qualify for funding through ARRA, it left a gap where no new projects are expected for a few years. Not to mention, most of the ARRA projects required very little or no engineering (repaving roads or adding sidewalks, for example). I was among the last group of engineers and surveyors laid off from my company in June and have only found one temporary job since then, with almost all the companies in my area (Nashville) treading water or downsizing since then. (In my job search, I’ve been told more than once that people are not planning on adding staff until after next year’s election.) I’m now wondering if I should change disciplines in order to hedge my bets. Environmental engineering looks promising. If you’ve been regulated out of a job, I guess apply for a job with the regulators."
If you doubt what the writer is saying, ask yourself this Suppose in 1941 the Japanese had attacked not Pearl Harbor, but the equivalent of the World Trade Center. (That would be what - the Empire State Building and the Chrysler Building?) Does anyone think that the US would have taken 10-years to start rebuilding?
That was Bin Laden's real assault on America. Not that his people knocked down two unprotected buildings in a time of peace, but he exposed how truly effete and degenerate we are that we needed ten years to start rebuilding.
And by the way, we're told that it took something a bit over one year to build the Empire State Building back in 1931. Also by the way, the twin towers were only ten stories taller.
America The Absurd So a company decided to build 190-MW of wind power in Minnesota, the equivalent of a fifth the size of today's coal plants. So for that they need a transmission line to tie into the grid. So there's a farmer who doesn't want the pylons and cables crossing his land. His excuse? The Indians built teepees where his land is. You can still make out the teepee rings. Its a historical site. If this gentleman wants to preserve Indian history, why doesn't he give his land back to the Indians from whom his forefathers took it?
Washington Post, Page A10, November 8, 2011.

0230 GMT November 8, 2011

Today's post has nothing to do with the GWOT or strategic affairs

The anti-Bank of America campaigner: Alice in Wonderland We learn from the Washington Post that the person who led the campaign against Bank of America's $5/month fee for using your debt card is a local resident. She works part-time, $400/month, because that's all she can get by way of employment. Before people write in to say $400/week would be good wages in many parts of the country, please to note Washington area is not most of the country. It is expensive, probably third most major metro area in the US.
Okay, so she led a consumer revolt and good for her. Of course, she was helped by the near universal hatred of the big banks at this point in American history. People like B of A have been systematically destroying competition by buying up one bank after another and they are not really responsive to the market.
One example is the banks' habit of paying out money from your account when you use your debit card, even if you don't have the money in your account, then charging you $35 for it, while saying piously "our customers prefer their transaction goes through". Sure, till you get hit with eight consecutive charges, for debit card purchases of less than $200, as once happened to Editor. He had forgotten to deposit his pay check and ended up paying $160 dollars (the overdraft fee was $20 then). Since the debit card kept getting accepted, he thought he was okay. Till he saw his next statement. His preference would have been for the first transaction not to go through at all, at which point he would have been embarrassed, but could have checked his account and discovered he hadn't deposited his paycheck.
Another fun thing the banks do is that - say - you make four charges in a day, $10, $15, $25, and $50, and you have $50 in your account. Instead of levying the overdraft fee on the fourth and last purchase, they put the $50 toward your fourth purchase, and then charge you overdraft fees for the three purchases you made earlier in the day. Really nice guys.
But that's not our point. So the young lady is now looking for a job, and apparently she will have to start paying $200/month toward her student loans. She rhetorically asked why does she have to pay interest? Why does she have to repay the loan? (WashPost, Metro section, page B1, November 7, 2011)
will and Ariel Durrant wrote A History of Civilization (a really good one) and titled one volume "The Age of Enlightenment". If they were still around, they could write a new book on post-1970 America, and title it "The Age of Entitlement."
What on earth gives this young person the idea that she shouldn't have to pay interest on her student loans or even pay them back at all? Editor is Student-Loaned up-the-wazoo, and he knows a thing or two about the loans. Yes, its a racket. Yes, the college industry (its an industry now) keeps raising the cost of education so you have to take out loans if you want a degree and without a double masters these days you don't get the job of unpaid research intern in Washington. Editor can give you any number of reasons why the Student Loan thing is a a colossal rip-off.
But that said, the government has made repayment as painless as humanly possibly. You don't have to pay anything for three years if you are not making enough. After that you pay 15% (to go down to 10%) of your income above 150% of poverty level if you chose an income contingent plan. Then, if you work in public service for 10-years, making your 120 payments on time, the government pays the rest of the your loan, no matter how high the balance. And if you don't get into public service, after 25 years (soon to be 20) the balance is written off anyway.
Just suppose for a minute that the mortgage market worked like the student loan market. Do you think a normal person would say "I don't have a decent job, I shouldn't have to pay interest or even my loan back"? We don't think so. We think a normal person would say "I'm getting heck of a deal, Brownie".
And so it should be on student loans. But apparently not in the Age of Entitlement.
Its not just bankers and hedge fund operators who need an "attitude adjustment." We, the Little People, need one too. America is a land that gives you equal opportunities: you too can run a financial institution and rip off the taxpayer for tens of billions and not go to jail. America is not a land that guarantees you great outcomes regardless of the bad choices you make. Yes, there is a lot of outright fraud perpetrated in American financial affairs. But student loans is not such an area.
The failure of the market The market is the foundation of capitalism. Distort the market, and you cannot have real capitalism. Stephen Pearlstein, writing in Washington Post's Sunday Business Section November 6, 2011, says that speculation is creating a new bubble, this time in commodities. He says commodity prices have nothing to do with supply and demand, rather, people looking for ever higher returns on their money are gambling with commodity futures now that other instruments are out of the picture. (That didn't stop Corzine of MF Global from reprising 2008 by speculating on Greek and Italian bonds.)
Re. oil, Pearlstein quotes the head of Chevron to say oil is $30/barrel higher than it should be strictly on supply-and-demand. Since Chevron gains the higher the price, the company has little to gain from putting out false or faulty studies which say the actual price should be much lower.
All the "free" market people might like to ponder the above point when they fill up their gas tank, paying $3.60/gallon instead of $2.40/gallon (of course, we are simplifying here, there is not a one-to-one correlation between crude prices and pump prices).
We've said this again and again: what the people who run America want is NOT capitalism. They want state capitalism, where the power of the state is used for their benefit, to tilt the playing field in their favor and against ordinary folks like you and me.
There comes a point a few people control so much money that they decide what the price should be, not the market. That is not capitalism.
From Reader DS on Fuzzy Wuzzy Economic Math Check out this site.
http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm As you can see they do not count people that quit searching or who have been unemployed for a set period of time or are underemployed/part time. The actual unemployment rate continues to go up.http

://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

Not sure if the above statistics are correct but these are the numbers that are thrown about by financial planners, MBA's and government workers.

That was not very smart of us as we knew about the official unemployment rate (U3) and the Bureau of Labor statistics rate (U6). So if you're going to just keep cutting off a while bunch of unemployed every month from U3, then of course you can bring down the unemployment rate even if you create only 80,000 jobs against the 150,000 needed to meet just the population growth. Which then leaves us wondering what is the worth of government statistics. There's a big difference saying "one of ten Americans is unemployed" and "one of six is in effect unemployed". The second figure might cause a little more concern among the electorate. The second reference reader DR gives argues that even the U6 rate is not accurate and the really really unemployment rate is even higher.

0230 GMT November 7, 2011

0230 GMT November 6, 2011

1400 GMT Correction: Ortega of Nicaragua was cleared for 3rd term by Supreme Electoral Council, which should be independent but which is controlled by ruling party. Nonetheless, this permission is not constitutionally valid and the Constitution forbids a third term He may get more than 50% of today's vote, obviating the need for a run-off.

0230 GMT November 5, 2011

0230 GMT November 4, 2011

0230 November 3, 2011

0230 November 2, 2011

0230 November 1, 2011

How to break the speed of light Apparently its as simple as pointing a laser pointer at the moon. The light from the pointer gets to the moon at the speed of light. But it crosses the surface of the moon at 20 times the speed of light. No Einstein law broken because no information is conveyed, nor is any matter travelling faster than the speed of light. http://www.newscientist.com/blogs/nstv/2011/10/one-minute-physics-how-to-break-the-speed-of-light.html

0230 GMT October 31, 2011

Global warming, once more into the breach dear friends etc So the issue was supposed to have been recently resolved. Some professor who was a skeptic went back and looked at a gazzilion skmillion wiffillion data points and said "I say, old chap, looks like I was wrong and there is global warming". (He's an American, so its unlikely he said "I say, old chap", but can our readers not interrupt while we're telling the story? We might forget what we're telling. The world media said "the issue is resolved", and the Editor was at peace, except that its more cost-effective to prepare for a warmer world than to stop putting CO2 in the air and what not.
But now Daily Mail of UK says the issue is not settled. Someone took the same data this professor used, and showed there has been absolutely no increase in the last ten years. still further, when confronted with this anomaly, El Professore admitted there has been no rise in 13 years but says its a statistical fluke. As nearly as we understand it, you can say its a statistical flue after decades into the future, and only if it turns out these 13 years are a plateau but the temperature starts rising again. Since we aren't in the future decades down the line, it cannot be said this is a fluke. for example, some argue that among the pollutants we are pumping into the atmosphere are some that cool the earth. Others argue warming/cooling is caused by the sun's activities.
(we've become bored with this post, so we'll move on.)
The 1% doubles its share of national income So, in 1979 the top 1% had ten percent of national income, now it has twenty percent. That's the simple part. The difficult part is deciding (a) is this a problem; and (b) if it is a problem, what is the solution. Here's reasons why it is a problem.
First, the 1% have doubled their take not because they are harder working, but because they've bought off Congress. And since they have that much more money now, its easier for them to keep Congress bought, so that in thirty more years we can look forward to them having 40% of the national income. Second, if everyone is doing well, then no one particularly objects if one group is doing better. But the 99% are not doing well. Non-supervisory workers have seen their incomes go flat over the last 30 years. Others have seen their incomes go up by a few percentage points. And right now you have whacking great unemployment, with the additional problem that a whacking great number of the employed are paid minimum wages.
Okay, so there's a problem. What's the solution? Our friends on the left say tax the rich. Our friends on the right say cut back the federal government so that we have more of our money to spend. Both solutions are deeply flawed. Yes, the 1% shouldn't have the benefit of capital gains taxes and so on, but as long as the own Congress nothing will be done. As for having more of our money to spend, since when is the case that what the government takes vanishes into a black hole? The government creates jobs and demand for your and my services as much as the private sector. Does it do so more efficiently? Surely in many cases it does not. But equally, there are areas where the private sector cannot do a better job. Deciding where is the boundary is not easy.
One that that severely diminishes the government's credibility is its habit of complicating its solutions. We may all agree that everyone should have health insurance, because it we don't, hospitals will pass on the cost of treating the uninsured to the insured. So all these years those with insurance have been getting beaten up with higher insurance rates. So why couldn't the government have come up with a simple, minimum benefit plan for the uninsured? Why not just give the uninsured vouchers to buy health care and be done with it? why can't the government tell the truth and say "our taxes will go up because there's no free lunch, but this is the right thing to do - we don't let Americans starve to death, and it should be the same for health insurance." But no. Government has to come up with a 4000-page plan which will generate "savings" which will be used to pay for those without insurance. If you believe there will be savings, you also believe Santa Claus comes down the chimney and leaves presents. (If Santa really did that, most of the time the "presents" would be deer plops.) The government is so inept it has not explained that the insured are already subsidizing the uninsured.
(We've lost interest in our own argument so we will stop here, in mid-thought.)
Letter on Kashmir from Sanjith Menon May I know from you the pros and cons of reliving AFSPA Armed forces special powers act in J and K state. Many say that CI and CT will now be done by J&K Police in urban areas! which to me is an alarming situation, because of the known Jamaat Islami affiliations the police there have. Yasin Malik once captured and sent to hospital, escaped from JKP guard is one incidence. The problems leading to, 1989 insurgency to my mind is as a result of JI work in that area. They consider themselves the progeny of the Mughals, and wants the entire sub continent back in Muslim rule as it existed before the British came in. Division of the Indian state again, under religious lines, to them, is to recreate more divisions within India. I'm again reiterating I am no communalist and have equal regards for Muslims as citizens in India.
From the Editor Given the frequency with which the Editor insists on shoving his point of view down readers' throats, it's always confusing to be actually asked for an opinion. Particularly when one knows nothing of the subject. Sure, Editor is happy to discuss any military aspects of Kashmir. But he has no clue what are the internal politics except (a) the separatists are a bunch of looney tuners because if they won independence from India, Pakistan would take them over in 12 hours, and then they'd learn what repression is; and (b) we don't see how a fraction of the population of Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh can claim to speak for the entire region. The Valley Sunnis want independence, but no one else does, including the Sikhs, Buddhists, Shias, and non-Valley Sunnis. We've seen one study that says if a free vote were held 78% of the people would vote against independence, not least because they know independence is a mirage with Pakistan sitting across the border and claiming Kashmir.
But that's about all we know. In general, its not a good idea to use military law to deal with insurgents and malcontents. In India, however, the civil criminal justice system is weak. Police, witnesses and judges alike are easily intimidated. So using civil law is not a solution either.
Personally, Editor does have a solution. Take over all Kashmir and be done with it. Leaving the state divided between India and Pakistan is one of the worst idiocies committed by the Government of India since 1947. It has greatly weakened India and diverted attention from more important matters.

0230 GMT October 30, 2011

Saudis again being ultra-stupid What is about people with money that makes their brain freeze? The brother of a Saudi billionaire has pledged $900,000 to a Palestine cleric who has offered $100,000 for the kidnapping of an Israeli soldier. The cleric wants to force a trade for more prisoners held by the Israelis. The Saudi wants to make it a million.
First, here is a member of the Saudi monarchy which runs the country with an iron hand, worrying about the oppression of Palestine by Israel? What gives any Saudi royal the moral standing to pass judgment on another country when it comes to issues of self-rule and human rights?
Readers know we are against Israel's occupation of Palestine. But were we Israeli, we'd recommend the government offer a public reward for the kidnapping of a Saudi royal, the entire tribe being leeches of the worst kind and contributing nothing to humanity. The Israelis could keep this royal in reserve in case a soldier is kidnapped. Then they go tell the Saudis: "you want your royal back, get our soldier back."
Second, what on earth makes this Saudi moron think the next time an Israeli soldier is kidnapped, the government will release anyone in exchange? We guarantee readers this was a one-off deal.
Now, in case readers don't understand why we are making a vitriolic attack on a Saudi royal. That's because this lot is the biggest financier of terrorists and that makes the ruling class are enemies of America. They need to be obliterated, not pandered to. As long as America does not act against the House of Saud, it can have no credibility in its claim to be fighting terrorists. Oil is not an excuse: we have many times more than the Saudis.
We also despise the Saudis because they have a racial scale for paying money in case a foreign worker gets killed. American and European white are at the top of the scale. Indians and Bangladeshis are at the bottom. That alone, in Editor's opinion, justifies the India government refuse to let Indian nationals work in Saudi, and get the Saudi Embassy out of Delhi. Of course, when it comes to kissing Saudi butt, there is one country that handily beats the US, and that is India.
http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=243644
A sensible article on why the Eurozone bail-out will fail This article was sent by reader Luxembourg, and you can read it at http://tinyurl.com/3u7jl96 We'd summarize it for you, but it deserves to be read in full.
Meanwhile, this is what passes for "experts" in global finance. One "expert" has said that for Greece to leave the Euro would be a disaster as the drachma would depreciate and that would make paying back Greek debts much more expensive. Does this blithering idiot not realize that if Greece leaves the Eurozone, it will default on its debt so there is no question of paying anything back? As for a total default being deadly to Greece, bosh, tosh, and nonsense. It will be deadly to owners of capital. Greece will go through a few years of hardship, then it will straighten out. Meanwhile, there is so much money floating around the globe that new lenders will arrive the day after Greece defaults. They'll figure out some extra-clever way of insuring their debt and everyone will be in business again.
What people who say "ooooh, default would be catastrophic" have yet to explain why someone who lends money on interest has to be assured of 100% security. People who invest in a business are taking a risk; if things go well, they make money; if things don't go well, they lose money. That's called capitalism. Why should it be different for people who invest in countries?
By the way, someone told us the other the day that its just not true the US has never defaulted. In 1933 the US said it wasn't going to pay its World War I in bonds in gold as promised; instead it was going to pay in paper currency. That's a default.

0230 GMT October 29, 2011

Iraq: And so it starts

Years ago orbat.com predicted once the Americans left Iraq, the country would decide to breakup. Our reasoning was the Kurds not only want their own state, they had one under US protection before US decided Kurds should be part of a unified Iraq. But their nationalist aspirations would not be squashed. We'd mentioned that an independent Kurd state would send Turkey and Iran bananas, so it wasn't going to be an easy transition.
As for the Sunnis, the Shia 60% majority had no time for them or any wish to live with them. And in any case serious ethnic cleansing took place. There is a school of thought that it wasn't the surge and General Petraeus who brought peace to Iraq as much as the Shias had achieved their objectives of ethnic cleansing. This may be true, but its also possible to argue that the surge stopped the Shias from massacring the Sunnis wholesale. That may not have been an Iraqi objective, but it was a US objective. Still, we'd said once the US leaves, if the Sunnis showed any inclination to live in peace with the Shia, good old Head Terrorist al-Sadr would make sure they regretted their choice.
So. US hasn't even left, and already the Shia's are striking out at the Sunnis in Salahaudin Province, a Sunni majority area that was the birthplace of Saddam Husain. Sunnis are being fired from government jobs and arrested. with the US grip loosened, "arrested" is just like the good old Saddam days, i.e., oftentimes the government doesn't feel like telling you where the arrested person has been taken - or even if he is under arrest and not just "disappeared".
So, Salahaudin has declared itself autonomous. a symbolic gesture, we are told, because the Iraqi constitution allows autonomy only by referendum. This legalistic emphasis is, of course, 100% American. The point is that with the US gone, the Shia government will resume settling scores as it already is. The ready answer is "why are you getting upset, you yourself engaged in de-Baathification, America." Of course, the Americans will say "yes, but it was a mistake," and the government will gently say "no, no, good buddies, you had it right the first time.
Now, one of the sensible things America could have done was arranged a peaceful breakup. The Kurds and Shias can look after themselves - oil, and lots of it; we'd suggested the US protect a Sunni homeland and give foreign aid as the Sunnis would have no oil in their part. This would have saved the vast expense of the surge and all that.
But the sensible thing and what America does are usually two quite different things. This is not, as foreigners often tells us, because Americans are blithering idiots - though they can often be, just as any other country can be. Its because America is like a 100-armed octopus encircling the globe, and America's logical course in one part of the world may conflict with another part.
The obvious case in this region is Israel. In a purely geopolitical sense it makes no sense to put Israel before all other American Arab interests. Not only has the US done so, not only has it paid a colossal price, and not only will this policy inevitable go down to defeat as the Arabs become democratic - and therefore more determined to help Palestine, but you can see that because of domestic compulsions, the US really has no choice but to support Israel. (PS: everyone in the world knows it, which is why they smirk, laugh, giggle, and make rude noises from their nether regions when the US pretends that only it is capable of negotiating a peace for Palestine. As far as the rest of the world is concerned, the US is the problem, not the solution. But every country has its fantasies and the US is no different.)
We've already said that an independent Kurdistan would drive Turkey crazy, and Turkey is a US ally. For how much longer one can't say, because the country is fed up of begging to be called European, and more and more, it is telling the west "the heck with you, we were great once, and we will be great again". But anyway, for now it is an ally. If Kurdistan declares independence, Iran and Turkey will invade, and that will not help the US.
So what about the Sunnis? Well, if the US got a peaceful Sunni secession US might even recover some of the ground it lost with the Sunni Arabs when it overthrew Saddam and let Iran rise. What are the chances US will follow this course? About zero: US has too many problems to think clearly.
The thing to remember is there is nothing permanent about countries. India and Pakistan were one country for millennia, but in 1947 they split. (Yes, we know according to western political frames of references India was not a country till the British made it one, but first, that is historically not true, and second, western political norms are not the only norms in the world, HELLO, people, get a life please.) When the Soviet Union broke up, Ukraine and Belarus which had been part of Russia for centuries became independent. The United Kingdom has been around for 400 years, well, its decided to peacefully split, cooperating when its to everyone mutual advantage and doing its own thing when that's more advantageous. And so on and so forth - just the other day the newest new nation was born, South Sudan. Afghanistan may split, Pakistan may split, and except that India has a very strong center, there's all kinds of politicians who would just love to have their own country in the name of self-determination, but with the real purpose of becoming petty tyrants undisturbed by Delhi. Yugoslavia split into seven states, for heavens sake. Czecho-Slovakia, get it? Belgium would love to split, had its people time to spare from drinking beer and eating chocolate. (And you know what? That's not a bad reason to stay in the same country. Better reason than for Iraq to stay together.)
So it is with Iraq. As nations go, it is a latecomer. The west put Iraq together from three provinces of the Ottoman Empire, after World War I, so what is the big deal if the three provinces go their own way?
And never forget people, had the US stuck to its own constitution, the US too would have been a country for less than a century. And going back a bit further, the US itself was a part of Great Britain.

0230 GMT October 28, 2011

Libya NATO military ops end October 31 This has to be just about the shortest shooting war the US has been involved in for many years, Panama excepted. Good job everyone - and please don't forget to go home.
Updating Concise World Armies for the next year, we're struck by how little the Europeans, Japanese, ROK etc. spend on their defense - 1 to 2% is the norm. We spend a bit more than 6% when you count homeland security, coast guard, N-weapons, intelligence, VA and so on. Editor hates to say this, because he's all for a strong defense posture (or a strong offense posture, if you want to call a spade a spade). Nonetheless, given the financial problems the US has, isn't it time to rethink what we're doing?
The intel agencies, at least, are thinking of saving 25% of their IT budgets by building converged systems - we're assuming "converged" means commonality. http://defensenews.com/story.php?i=8077497&c=AME&s=TOP
Meanwhile, the new Zumwalt class destroyers will be 14,500-tons. Aegis cruisers of today are 10,000 tons. The new destroyers are not much lighter than the Baltimore-class heavy cruisers the US Navy built during World War 2, about the biggest cruisers anywhere. Their full-load was 17,000-tons.
Cannibalizing old satellites to build new ones - in space Here's an innovative idea, which DARPA hopes to test in 2015. Use a space robot to take parts from dead sats and make new ones - in orbit. If DARPA is ready to test this idea in just three years, the odds are its been working on it for several years now. And, of course, if you have a robot that can assemble new satellites from old in space, the same feller could disassemble satellites as well. Make it stealthy and other countries may not even find out till its too late. Of course, the X-37 is already operational - the second test mission has been underway for several months, if you want to do a snatch and grab. Eat your heart out James Bond. http://www.newscientist.com/blogs/onepercent/2011/10/grave-robbing-robot-could-revi.html
US GDP grows 2.5% 3Q - So why are we all feeling rotten? These days 2.5% growth is something to write home about. But its no consolation because (a) one decent quarter does not a real recovery make; (b) the unemployment rate is not budging; (c) the housing market collapse, which wiped out $7-trillion of Americans wealth, will not be straightened out till 2020. Also, of course, construction is one of the biggest drivers of the US economy, so if construction is in the doldrums, so are we all.
Plus there's the circus called the US Congress, which hasn't got a budget together for a couple of years now, and can't agree on debt reduction. Approval for Congress is in the single digits, which means 9 of 10 people think its doing a lousy job. Its hard to find 9 of 10 Americans agreeing on any issue.
Then there's Europe, dark clouds over and all that. The Europeans are said to have made progress in their current crisis, but you just know if lenders exist Greece with 60% losses, Spain, Italy, and even little Ireland which has not complained about the great misfortune that has come its way, will start wondering why they are being required to pay 100 cents on the Euro. Moreover, no one has decided who is going to take the 60% Greek loss. The banks say the insurers should; the insurers are saying Greece has not defaulted so they shouldn't have to pay. In Greece we were talking about $300-billion. Italy and Spain are trillion dollar economies - $2-trillion and $1.5-trillion respectively. If they start demanding partial repayment, then we'll have Greece all over again times ten.
Solyndra The question of if the government should subsidize new technologies with guaranteed loans aside, people should remember if the government (public sector) made a bad bet, so did the supposedly efficient private sector, i.e., Solyndra itself. Aha, you say, but at least when a private company mucks up, my taxes are not being used to subsidize it. Sorry, good buddies. Every time a private company loses money, your taxes are being used, because the company writes off its losses against taxes. Moreover, when a private company decides to give itself lavish digs and private jets, you the taxpayer are also subsidizing them, because they write if off as expenses.
We'd mentioned the other day that you and I don't get to deduct our expenses from our taxes, except in limited ways. So why are companies allowed to do that and not individuals?
We need to stop letting anyone deducting anything for anything, companies and individuals both. If all income is taxes, not just net income, you could reduce tax rates substantially.

0230 GMT October 27, 2011

Before you ask no, Editor did not get a single dollar for his astonishingly creative of bigotry yesterday. Editor senses racism: it seems if you are not a white bigot no one takes you seriously enough to send money. But don't worry, Editor will be back on this topic.
"Euro Armageddon is approaching, but it's too boring and complicated to explain" says Daniel Knowles of the UK Daily Telegraph. We like this youngster already. He refers us to an article http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/09/06/jp-morgan-explains-the-euro-crisis-with-lego/ - "JP Morgan analyst explains the Euro crisis with Lego" and says the explanation is no more absurd than the explanations people are giving for the Euro crisis. He says no one understands what is going on, let alone what to do about it, and the whole thing is going to blow up.
This is the first sensible thing we've heard anyone say about the Euro crisis. http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielknowles/100113515/euro-armageddon-is-approaching-but-its-too-boring-and-complicated-to-explain/
Now all we need is for an American to truth-tell about the US economy. No one knows what to do and things are getting steadily worse. Admitting this might be a vital step to actually understanding the crisis.
"A revolution is not a tea party" Mao allegedly said. Someone quoted this in reference to the revenge the new government's fighters are extracting against the loyalists, even as the Human Rights people go burbling along about "war crimes". The Libyan people suffered 42 years of violence at Gadaffi's hands. If anyone thinks now, snap, from Day 1 the former rebels are going to establish and follow standards acceptable to the Hague when it comes to treatment of the former regime members and those fighters who refused to surrender, they need their heads examined. And suggestions some Human Rights people are making that somehow NATO is responsible are the height of absurdity.
What the west does need do, nevertheless, is to get out of Libya and let the Libyans take care of themselves. However they do it. The Libyan government is asking NATO not to end its mission for now and to help with rebuilding. Negative, negative, negative. Nation-building is the way to danger. The US in particular is absolutely no good at anything to do with peace. It is good at war, and as anyone knows, its best to play to one's strengths and not to one's weaknesses. US should be focusing on whacking Bashir Assad of Syria, not trying to get fractious and probably irreconcilable Libyan tribes together.
So the Tunisian election winners want Sharia law They don't have a majority, but are the largest party and are looking to form a coalition. They are mumbling things about respecting all religions, the usual kind of baffling them with bull-poop. should we be worried?
Not one little bit. Lets go back a bit. The US rationale for supporting every tin pot dictator during the Cold War - at least the ones the Soviets weren't supporting - was that otherwise those countries would fall to the communists.
Now, we're not blaming anyone, because it sure looked that way to anyone on the scene in the late 1940s. First the Soviets snuffed out the democracies of Eastern Europe that had the audacity to restore their democracies after the fall of Germany. Then the communists took over China, which had been a US friend/ally. Then the Soviets were busy stirring up trouble in Western Europe. Then came the Korean War, and half of Korea went red. Then the communists defeated the French. Huge swaths of the newly decolonized world declared themselves to be "socialist", not least India, the largest of the ex-colonial nations, and made kissy-faces with the Soviets. There was a brutal civil war in Greece. Egypt fell to "socialists". The Red army was poised to roll west. Etc etc.
So the US thinking the dictators had to be supported - ROK, South Vietnam, Indonesia, South and Central America, Africa, etc etc.
But ultimately what happened - we argue - is that our opposition gave the other side and its dictators an excuse to maintain their hold on power. This delayed the fall of communism.
While the mistakes we made back then were inevitable, there is no need to make these mistakes again. There is no need to replace the Red Menace with the Green Menace. You either believe Rousseau when he said it is humankind's natural instinct to be free, or you don't. If you believe that, when those oppressed by the Green Menace ask for help, by all means give it in a low key way, the way we are doing in Iran. If the Greenies don't leave us alone, whack them, as we are doing in Yemen. But for the rest, let the people of these countries figure out things for themselves.
For the rest, be nice and polite to everyone, be they Taliban, Egyptian Brotherhood, Tunisian Islamists, whatever. By all means use all the low key tools at your disposal to get them to change their behavior. but don't confront them directly. Its not going to work.
The odds anyone will listen to our prescription are zero Republicans and Democrats alike cannot come to terms with the reality the American star is setting. They want to lash out in every direction, just to prove to themselves that Americans are still a virile race who by sheer force of arms can impose their will on anyone. No use pointing out to these people that our experience in Afghanistan shows just how impotent we are. People say we should have sent 250,000 troops to Afghanistan. Perhaps we should have. But we couldn't because the fading will of the American people no longer permits sacrifice. we've become soft - it had to happen, since we won the greatest war known to humans, the Cold War. (In terms of people killed of course it wasn't anything to write home about. But in scope, it was the biggest war of all - no corner of the world was not involved.)
A sign of decadence and degeneracy is when a nation is not willing to sacrifice to maintain its position but still screams and shouts threats left and right, as if that will make us number one again. Our leaders owe it to us to tell us the truth: are we willing to increase taxes by 50% and double the size of the military? If we're not, its best to pull back from foreign adventures. And there's a limit to what UAVs can do, by the way.
And have we forgotten Second Indochina? We sent 750,000 troops to that war, spent seven years in direct combat, and imposed no restraints on ourselves except rule out the use of nuclear weapons. And using nukes at Khe San would have really made the US look good in the world, wouldn't it have? We'd have used them if we thought we could get away with it.
Now its true as one grows older one's memory gets a little fuzzy. So maybe we need the youngsters to read up their history and tell us: that was one heck of a glorious victory, Second Indochina, wasn't it? It wasn't? See, we've been telling you when Westy asked for an additional 250,000 troops after Tet, LBJ should have sent them.
But more seriously, you know what? America did actually pacify South Vietnam. But it paid such a price that when Giap came down with his third army - having lost the first two, in 1968 and 1972, Congress wouldn't even approve $850-million for ordnance for the South Vietnamese, and it wouldn't send its tactical fighter wings and attack carriers back, and Giap won.
And today Vietnam is a BFF of ours. Wouldn't it have been simpler to be polite to Ho in the first place?
And so with the Green Menace. The fundamentalists may hate American social values all they want. But you know what? Because American social values appeal to the basest of our instincts, they are insidious. They cannot be fought off. No one can fight off sex, music, and having a great time. The Greenies will lose if they try.
Somehow people thought it was just an ironical coda that the soldiers and sailors who took out Bin Laden found pornography in his digs. It wasn't an ironical coda. It was the whole point: it showed just how badly Bin Laden and his vision of restoring some hypothetical Islamic purity failed. It wasn't the bullet in the head that defeated him. Che Guevara died and became a hero. It was western pornography that completely undercut everything OBL said he stood for.

0230 GMT October 26, 2011

Operation Long Knife is actually Operation Short Knife We can all relax; contrary to reports in British papers last week US is not about to chase Haqqanis in Pakistan. Operation Long Knife is confined strictly to the Afghanistan side of the border and involved two US brigades plus an alleged 25,000 Afghan troops. The Afghan figure can be that high only if the US is counting sheep and goats.
All this operation will do is push the Haqqanis into Pakistan, back on their main bases. Then the US will say to Pakistan "Your move, we closed the border as you demanded." Then Pakistan will either do a pretend operation or refuse to do anything at all. Then the US will put pressure on Pakistan. Then the Pakistanis will threaten to stop cooperating. Then the US will go kissy faces. This is what is happening right now, after Pakistan's threats in response to US threats about the Haqqanis.
Don't worry if none of this makes sense. Our national security and military leadership is the best in the world, or so we're told. Best jackasses in the world, more likely. To humor whom the taxpayer is paying $100-billion/year. No problemo: we're the richest country in the world, aren't we?
Why is it Rush Limbaugh makes millions being an idiot and the Editor barely makes the monthly mortgage? Is it Mr. Limbaugh's case he is a bigger idiot than the Editor? If so, Mr. Limbaugh had better be ready to settle this question in the boxing ring, because thems fighting words.
Mr. Limbaugh's latest is that the Lord's Resistance Army is a Christian army fighting Muslims and here Mr. Obama is sending troops to finish of the LRA. This is news to us that the LRA is fighting Muslims, because all it does is to kidnap children, rape, loot, murder, mutilate, and burn down villages. Mr. Limbaugh had better be prepared to show where in the New Testament Jesus told his followers that that's how one becomes Christian.
It drives Editor into a jealous fury that this Limbaugh Clown is paid for his inanities whereas the Editor is not paid for his. Where is the justice?
Does Editor have to say that Gadaffi was a sweet, loveable man who was simply assisting his citizens in getting to heaven quicker by killing them, and as such he was a true saint, and instead of villifying the man we should be sending his name to the Pope? Okay, if that's what it takes to see some serious $$$, the Editor says that. Editor also says that Mao's killing of 40-50 million Chinese in the Great Leap was a mercy because China couldn't have fed all its people. Similarly, Stalin was a humanitarian because as everyone knows, the Soviet people had short, miserable, unhappy lives and he was putting them out of their misery. The point that Stalin was making them miserable in the first place is completely beside the point.
As for Hitler, its all the west's fault for defeating Germany in World War I. Had the French had the decency to lie down and think of England in winter, and the English to think sex is something the French do and is un-English, and the Americans to mind their own business, Germany would have won World War I and there would have been no Hitler. And Hitler actually did America a favor by persecuting Jews, otherwise so many brilliant Jews would not have fled to America and where would we be then? Probably 100th in terms of infrastructure instead of the 35th we actually are. The other thing Hitler did that was really good was that he stole so much by way of food from France that the French didn't have enough to eat, and goodness gracious, French women have never been as slim and gorgeous before or after. How can anyone in their right mind criticize Hitler?
As for Al Qaeda, the Taliban, and al Shaabab, its all the fault of the Christian armies that stopped the Muslim onslaught at the gates of Vienna. Naturally Al Qaeda, the Taliban, and al Shaabab feel thwarted and unhappy that they have no pictures of the Kardashian Sisters or New jersy Snookie. And just think: had the Muslims taken over Europe we'd be saving so much money on police, judges, and jails because thieves would simply get their hands cut off. We would not need a Securities and Exchange Commission or Dodd-Frank because Mr. Blankfein and his buddies would have no arms, legs, or head, and could not rob us again. Women would not be allowed to drive so they'd have to stay home and cook, and America would not be committing suicide by eating junk food. And since women would not be allowed out except in the company of a family male, they wouldn't be assaulted. As for the Turks and the Armenians, if Mr. Obama did not insist that No Child is Left Behind, we could all grow up ignorant and not have the faintest idea where Armenia and Turkey are or what happened 100 years ago. Ignorance is Bliss, Knowledge Leads to Hate.
Then if the west didn't have these silly rules about not making a public nuisance, we could be like the Indians and go pee against the lamp-posts and in the alleys, saving enough flush water to save the Florida swamps, And as for the Chinese - okay, give us a minute and we'll think of something snarky, tasteless, and totally false to say about the Chinese. How about if we hadn't brought civilization to China they would have no cars to drive, the price of oil would be SO much lower, and the Chinese wouldn't be manipulating the price of rare earths because they would have no idea that the earths were rare.
We have to stop here and check editor@orbat.com's PayPal account. Doubtless the Editor is already at least a 1-millionaire.

0230 GMT October 25, 2011

Wikileaks founder deserves F in arithmetic This gentleman says that donation were running at Euro 100,000/month before the US told crfedit card companies and PayPal to block Wikileaks' account or else. This cost the organization Euro 40 to 50 million he says. Right. Arithmetic time, people. Lets give Wikileaks E100,000/month for all of 2010 and through October 2011. That's 22 months. That's E2.2-million, not E40-to-50-million.
He further says the organization needs E3.5-million to operate next year, which is three times what it was getting in 2010. Is it permitted to ask why this 300% increase, and where did the E100,000/month of last year go?
The gentleman said the financial difficulties mean Wikileaks will have to cease publications at the end of 2011. We weep for him.
Further, he has complained to European authorities that the financial blockade against Wikileaks is anti-competitive.
Well, actually no. By being in possession of, and by publishing classified material, Mr. Wikileaks committed a crime in the US, and possibly in the UK too, but very likely not in Sweden. Of course he doesn't want to go to Sweden for well-known reasons. Since he broke US law, US government has every right to tell any financial institutions handling money from him that also does business in the US, which is just about everyone in the world except perhaps for the Fifth Bank of The Iranian Revolutionary Guards, that it must cease and desist.
Mr. Wikileaks thought he was being so clever exposing the US and other governments and capitalist organizations like Bank of America. Honestly, it does not pay to antagonize the US Government. People don't understand to what extent the US Government will go, spending millions or tens of millions if it must, to get you if you get into a grudge match with Washington. And if Mr. Wikileaks thinks the US diplomatic cables thing is over, he is misinformed. The US will be waiting for as many years as neccessary to get him.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/oct/24/wikileaks-suspends-publishing
The man who killed Gadaffi freely tells the world he did it because he had the dictator in his power and could not bear to let him go alive. To prove he did the deed, he displayed the blood-stained T-shirt and ring he took from Gadaffi. Obviously this gentleman did not get the message from western human rights groups that he committed a war crime, because here is boasting about the deed.
And people, good luck getting him arrested. People will start shooting if the Libyan government tries to take him into custody at the West's behest.
The photographs released by a media organization lead us to question whether Gadaffi would have survived even if he had not been shot. He was repeatedly beaten with force on his head and face, and probably the only thing that stopped the blows was he was killed. So perhaps the man did Gadaffi a favor, finishing him off all at once instead of letting him suffering further.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/oct/24/wikileaks-suspends-publishing
Cryptographers break 18th Century Copiale Cipher but early 1400s Voynich manuscript still untouched. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/25/science/25code.html?src=un&feedurl=http%3A%2F%2Fjson8.nytimes.com%2Fpages%2Fscience%2Findex.jsonp

0230 GMT October 24, 2011

In the absence of real news, the Editor will now proceed to pontificate. This might be a good time to take that nap you've denied yourself all last week.

Separating corporation and state Someone said the other day that we have a constitutional separation of church and state. Now we need to separate corporation and state.
This makes sense, given that the money is the new religion and the oversize corporation its high priest. Editor is reminded of a saying in India: when you give money to the priest at the temple, he says "I will now throw the money into the air; God's share will rise to heaven, mine will fall back to earth." Seems the Indians - as usual - were way ahead of the rest of the world, because this is pretty much how much a modern large corporation operates.
So here you have the corporations, whining, weeping, wailing, and threatening the government and the people: "unless you dismantle regulations, you will kill jobs." Who knows: the corporations may be right. In which case we, the people, should offer a deal: we'll vote to get rid of the regulations, if you stop buying up Congress to support your bottom line.
We have the unedifying sight of the big corporations insisting that private enterprise is efficient, and government is not. The recent recession, which will likely go on for years, was brought about by those supposedly efficient big corporations like the banks. America likely would be restricted to making car parts for Japanese, German, and Chinese automobiles had Washington not bailed out the auto companies. You want examples of private efficiency, visit the balance sheets of the airline companies over the last 40 years. if the government stopped the home mortgage deduction, the construction industry would likely collapse. It would be interesting to see what would happen to the profits of the oil industry if the government made them pay the real cost of getting overseas oil to the US, i.e., having them pay for security of the sea lanes. Readers might also want to contemplate what would happen to the American pharma industry if the government withdrew the de facto protection it gives the industry with its myriad rules, which work against those who can sell drugs in the US at prices ten to twenty times lower.
Are we then saying that the government should run the oil companies, the banks, the airlines, the auto manufacturers, and so on? No, we are not saying that. We are saying that big business in the US thrives because it manipulates the government to slope the level field.
Further, if the big corporations insist they are people and as such enjoy the right of free speech as expressed in their paying hundreds of million dollars a year to buy politicians, let the corporation pay the same taxes as the people. We are not talking about tax rates. We are asking why corporations get to pay taxes only on their profits, and get to use thousands (tens of thousands?) of loopholes to minimize those profits, including keeping the money outside the US, whereas you and I get to pay on our income. By the way, keep your overseas income overseas and not pay tax on it, and see what the government does to you. You will not be a happy camper, we can assure you. If corporations claim the rights of individuals, let them pay tax as individuals. Then the government could seriously reduce tax rates for everyone, corporations and individuals alike.
Some readers might accuse us of being anti-capitalist. Wrong. We are firmly capitalist. But if the government is to stay out of the way of capitalists by dismantling regulations, then equally the corporations should accept no unequal treatment from the government. The combination of corporations and government working hand-in-hand is NOT capitalism. It is state-supported and state-protected business. Quite different.

0230 GMT October 23, 2011

More confusion in Libya Gadaffi's son Saif was first reported critically injured by an RAF strike and captured. Now it turns out he may have escaped. How a man with his arms blown off can escape custody is a great mystery to us. It would seem unlikely he could survive for more than an hour or so after such serious injuries unless immediately hopitalized,
Meanwhile, according to investigations of records in Tripoli, the government estimates Gadaffi stashed $200-billion overseas. This being Libya, the figure could be revised to $20-billion or even $2-billion. Given how casual the Libyans are about their claims of having killed or captured former regime officials, a few zeroes here and there should not be taken too seriously.
The details of the air strike against the Gadaffi convoy are available at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8843684/Gaddafis-final-hours-Nato-and-the-SAS-helped-rebels-drive-hunted-leader-into-endgame-in-a-desert-drain.html The article clearly shows the Libyan militias remained incompetent to the end. The British SAS and Qatari SF advisors had warned the militias to watch all exit routes from Sirte. So naturally they did not watch, which is about par for the course. Luckily a US Predator picked up the convoy, handed off to a NATO E-3 AWACS, which directed two French fighters for the attack.
Financial crisis We thought we were being quite bold when we predicted Greece bond-holders would have to take a 50% loss. Now a new figure is being tossed around, 60%. Which will still leave Greece heavily indebted and unable to make payments because its economy is rapidly deteriorating due to the budget cuts and tax increases. So don't be surprised if even 60% proves too optimistic.
Colder weather driving New York protestors away says Brietbart.com at http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.076554f0f841174041014cbd3464a9be.4c1&show_article=1 The protestors are not allowed to erect tents, and so are facing the elements. Of course, winter has nowhere near arrived, there's still two months of fall. The protestors have asked permission for tents. Mayor Bloomberg says that the constitution guarantees free speech. It does not guarantee tents.
Romney assails Obama for incompetent Iraq negotiations Clearly Mr. Romney thinks he could have negotiated better and kept US troops in Iraq - for what purpose is unclear. Question for Mr. Romney: has he heard of a certain terrorist called al-Sadr, who is now an elected member of parliament and without whose large faction no one can form a government in Iraq? Does Mr. Romney think he could have persuaded al-Sadr to change his mind? al-Sadr was willing for some thousands of US troops to remain - horse-trading with Premier Maliki, who probably would have accepted ten or twenty thousand troops. But al-Sadr said "no immunity".
It isn't too late. President Obama should send Romney to persuade al-Sadr to change his mind. One meeting with the Bearded Self-Proclaimed Messiah of Iraq, with his crazy eyes and venomous mouth, will lead to Mr. Romney catching the next plane back.
But why keep American troops in Iraq, anyway? Mr. Romney says to counter Iran's influence. Dear, dear Romney. Straight as an arrow and confused as a 6-year old whose ice cream cone has been stolen by an armed and dangerous escaped circus monkey.If you were so worried about Iran, maybe you should have advised President Bush not to overthrow Saddam. In case you haven't figured it out, overthrowing Saddam gave Iran its greatest foreign policy victory since whenever. Iraq is a democracy, Shias are 60% of the population, so Shias rule. Iran is Shia. Get that, Mr. Romney? The ties between Iraqi Shia leaders and Iran are extensive and deep. Can you understand? And here's a little hint: Iraq is going to start joining Iran in funding Shia insurgencies in the Arab world. There's a whole world of pain waiting for the US.
Karzai says he will side with Pakistan in case of war with the US This is what happens when you Americans fail to make sure Karzai is taking his medicine. Is this any way to conduct your foreign policy?
Our theory is Karzai is going kissy-faces with the Pakistanis in the hope Islamabad lets him continue as President after the Americans leave. Are the Pakistanis crazy? Doubtful. When the Taliban take Kabul, if Karzai hasn't run away to his restaurant in Washington DC, he will be the first person publically executed. Then Amnesty International can declare his death a war crime and demand explanations of the Taliban. (Sometimes we really crack ourselves up.)
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44998270

0230 GMT October 22, 2011

What's going on along the Pakistan border? We spoke with our South Asia correspondent, Mandeep Bajwa. He hasn't heard anything, but he says a big raid to capture some of the Haqqani leadership is likely in the offing.
The 1883 comet We hope you read the article reader Luxembourg said and that we linked to in Twitter.http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/27264/ This is not science fiction, but an article in MIT's Technology Review. Looks like this feller was in some 3000+ pieces, each between 50- and 800-meters across and 70- to 1,000-meters long.. The comet was between 600-million and 2.5-trillion tons. It was likely 600- to 6000-kilometers from earth as it went by. A bit closer and earth would have been whacked over 3000 times in two days. Okay, so most of the fragments would have landed in the oceans because water covers most of our planet. But events near coasts would have led to tsunamis, and several hundred impacts with the continents would have created a big mess.
The thing about the universe is that it an incredibly violent place. And the universe does not care that we are living on earth. It does not care what we have achieved. In the universe, if your number comes up, that's it.
The asteroid that hit the Yucatan sixty-million years ago was ten-kilometers across. Now Indian scientists say it was likely only one of seven pieces of rock that hit the earth at the same time or close together in time. What a mess that must have been.
We are not suggesting you live your every moment as if an asteroid is going to whack us, but a bit of humility about our importance in the universe might not be a bad thing.
What kind of economy does America have? Clearest explanation we've seen comes from Nassim Taleb, himself a Wall Street guy who wrote the The Black Swan. Business weeks quotes him as saying that America is neither capitalist nor socialist, its just somehow we all work for the banks. so true. Now we need a name: "Bankist" doesn't have zing. Neither does "Financeist". But the motto of the new American economy comes easy: "What yours is ours, and what is ours is ours".
Occupy Wall Street We sympathize with the OWS lot, as long as we don't have to look upon their Super Grubby appearance and encampments. For once the American police are being sensible, because nothing acts as an accelerant more than repression.
Now, while we sympathize with OWS, the inevitable question arises: what's to be done about Wall Street? Wall Street controls the presidency and the Congress, and we doubt the big finance CEOs are weeping in their pink hankies because OWS hates them. You don't get be a Louis Blankfein or John Paulson by being sensitive to what others think of you. Its easy to say: "Call out the vote". But it doesn't matter who you elect, the money people are going to buy them.
Remember, the richest people in America don't make a thing. They push pieces of paper around (more accurately they push bytes around) as they gamble with your money. If they win, the gains are all theirs.If they lose, the losses are yours.
Energy subsidies All right, children, have your fun beating up President Obama on this energy subsidy thing. Just keep in mind, its a 2005 Bush program. The pigs feeding at the taxpayer trough have no political ideology when it comes to looting the taxpayer.
And people can gripe all they want, it doesn't change the hard reality: according to one estimate we read (by the industry and likely to be exaggerated) last year the Chinese subsidized their solar power energy to the tune of $29-billion. Even if its a third that, its a whacking great amount of money. So how are you supposed to compete when Chinese solar panels sell for a quarter of good quality western ones? Sure, classical economics says, well, let the Chinese make the solar panels, we'll make what we're good at and sell it to them.
Problem is, no one has come up with what to make that the Chinese will buy from us. Or at least continue buying after they reverse engineer or buy the technology, and then make it at half the price, while blocking your exports.
Another execution Gadaffi's son Mutassim was also executed after capture. Apparently someone cut his throat. Meanwhile son Saif has been captured. One set of reports said he was shot in the leg as he sought to escape near Ziltan, west of Tripoli. But other reports say his vehicle was caught by an RAF Tornado and he has lost both his arms. We are not to going bet on his chances, giving the way his father and brother died.
By the way, the French aircraft that strafed the convoy in which Gadaffi fled Sirte killed at least 50 people in the convoy.
Why are we mentioning this? Well, for some reason people now days think war is an antiseptic video game. Unfortunately it is not. People are getting horrified at the remains of what was Gadaffi. But where is the video of the 1200 prisoners who were executed in prison many years ago, just some of the 60,000 disappeared, or the videos of the thousands of executions Gadaffi forces conducted during the uprising? We are not going to sit here and moralize about the bad, bad former rebels, now government troops. If you'd lost family and friends to a bloodthirsty dictator, you'd fight to be the first to stick a knife in him. Many of the troops in Sirte are from Misurata, which particularly suffered from the siege by Gadaffi forces. If they want blood, we for one understand. People keep talk of Libya being a tribal nation. Well, are we modern types so "sophisticated" that we don't understand the concept of blood debt?
Kenya and Somalia The Kenyans have now openly stated they will take Kisaymo and stay there as long as is neccessary to extirpate Al Shabaab from the area.

0230 GMT October 21, 2011

Gaddafi killed every hour brings a new story about how the former Libyan dictator died. Latest is Libya government chief saying he was captured alive (video shows he was) but then his followers tried to rescue him and he died by a bullet to his head.
So let's cut the obfustication and say he was executed, for whatever reason. The question is, so what? Why is Amnesty calling for fair, impartial investigations? This kind of rot may play in New York and among Amnesty's funders - "Oh we are so fair we demand due process even for dictators", it does not play in Libya. Did the US do anyone a favor by giving Saddam "due process", let alone Saddam himself? Do Saddam supporters believe he got a fair trial? No. So for whose benefit was that sordid drama played out? America's, so that it could assure itself it was both humane and fair. You can say the US captured and held Saddam, so its okay for America to have played games.
But the same does not apply in Gaddafi's case. Amnesty may raise the alarm: Victor's Justice. Honey, it is always Victor's Justice. A prime example is the execution by the US of Japanese officers responsible for water boarding American prisoners. But when it suits/suited us, we water boarded Al Qaeda prisoners, including one reportedly well over one hundred times.
Amnesty needs to understand the world does not become a better place in all cases when the US system of justice is applied. Gaddafi died on the battlefield, he died quickly. He was spared the suffering and humiliation of imprisonment and a "trial". if Amnesty wants to protest, let it protest that Gaddafi got away too easily.
Don't expect peace in Libya As commentators have repeatedly said, Libya is less a nation than a grouping of 3-4 major tribes. No different from a lot of Africa, and an issue that lies at the heart of African violence. The process by which the tribes agree to a new government and abide by the rules will not be easy or quick. Gaddafi, like Saddam and Assad of Syria, did not have this problem. If you were from the wrong tribe and objected, you died. Expect a big mess as a new nation is built, and don't be surprised if people decide they can't live together and should have separate nations. Nothing wrong with that. America, pay heed, because your turn may be coming sooner than you think.
India's amphibious division Reader Avik B sends a story saying India's 54th Infantry Division is being reorganized as an amphibious division. This ties in with the earlier news that India wants to increase the number of amphibious brigades, and also ties in with the already-underway expansion of Indian Navy amphibious capability. Aside from plans for for 4 LPDs at a cost of $800-million each (approval expected to be given shortly by Ministry of defense) a contract was signed last month for 8 x 800-ton LCUs of Indian build. There are already 9 LST (including 3Medium) and 8 LCUs; we're wondering if the existing LCUs 500-tons will be replaced when the new ones arrive.

0230 GMT October 20, 2011

Somalia Kenyan troops in conjunction with the Somali government plan to drive on to the port of Kisamayo, which is the nerve center of Al Shabaab in southern Somalia. The Islamist group is no position to withstand the Kenyan assault, which is being conducted by well-trained troops with artillery support. accordingly the group is threatening terror strike against Kenya.
The problem with Al Shabaab is that it has created great difficulties, instabilities, and uncertainties in all of Eastern Africa. Uganda and Burundi intervened under the aegis of the African Union, and after many years of undermanning/underfunding, the force became effective last year with reinforcements. Al Shabaab took a beating in Mogadishu and was forced to abandon the capital, leaving it to resort to terror attacks, which it has been doing. Kenya has opened up a new front and is obviously looking to do serious damage to the group. This may be no more than a heavy punitive raid to retaliate against kidnappings of foreigners in Kenya. In which case Kenya will withdraw after getting to Kisamayo and bashing Al Shabaab there.
Al Shabaab managed to fight off the Ethiopian intervention 2006-2009.
The west, of course, has no intention of really getting involved despite the havoc Somali pirates are wrecking in the Western Indian Ocean. But unless some sort of resolution is brought about, Somalia will continue to fester and infect the entire region.
Meanwhile, we have not mentioned the new Somali famine which is causing much suffering. The west has had it with coming to the aid of starving Somalis, particularly with Al Shabaab saying any aid given to areas under its control has to come through the group. The non-western countries, of course, care less by several orders of magnitude. The sum of all this is the attitude "its just another bunch of dysfunctional black Africans dying for one reason or another, lets mind our own affairs."
In the intervention business, black Africans as victims rank dead last in the world. Five million of them died in the Congo war, the deadliest conflict since World War 2. The vast majority were civilians. Their bad luck, as far as the world is concerned.
The US operation against the Haqqanis is called "Knife Edge". There are no details at all available except the idea is to push the Haqqanis into Afghanistan where they will be dealt with by the US. The media keeps saying "US and Afghan troops". The day we see an Afghan brigade in action, we'll believe it. We aren't holding our breath.
We have no comment on this operation because we have no idea what's going on. even www.longwarjournal.org has nothing, and this blog has excellent contacts in the US military. So we are wondering if an operation is underway in the first place.
The economy is worse than you and I think it is according to an economic journalist writing for Reuters. He has gone through the payroll figures released for 2010, and says that aside from everyone's income falling except the very rich, ten million Americans worked zero hours in 2010.
http://blogs.reuters.com/david-cay-johnston/2011/10/19/first-look-at-us-pay-data-its-awful/
Herman Cain's 9-9-9 Excerpts from a letter, name withheld by request. "You have misunderstood Herman Cain's proposal. First, revenue will not fall because tens of millions of Americans who currently pay no federal taxes will have to start paying. second, it is true - as alleged by the media - that the better off and rich will pay less by way of taxes. But have you asked yourself why rich people should pay a greater percentage of their income than poor people. There is nothing in the Constitution which says "Each according to his means". The US Constitution explicitly says all citizens are to be treated equally under the law. How is it just for half of US taxpayers to not just pay nothing by way of federal taxes, but to actually receive subsides paid for by the taxes of the better off. Income redistribution is socialist and/or communist. It is nothing in which a free country should engage.."
We want to tell our letter writer that these days Editor does not do much thinking. His days and nights are occupied with making his mortgage. It is his sole asset and he doesn't want to lose it because he wants to leave something for his children. Coming home with $93/day after taxes for the 15-17 days a month one gets work does not cover the mortgage. There's a miserly Social security check - miserly because the Editor had to ask for it early, and a pension from Catholic Schools which is sort of interesting in an abstract way: it is too small to have any relation to reality. Every month Editor draws down on savings to make do.
Okay, he realizes he is fortunate because he is still in his house, and he still has savings to make up the difference for a couple of years. There's a terrible lot of people who have neither house nor savings.
Editor is going to leave the economic philosophy to others. Instead he is going to ask a question. Whatever the justice or injustice of taxing the rich more than others, if this economy does not improve - and there are no signs it will for several years - at some point people are going to desperate. Then they're going to get mad. Then they're going to kill the rich - and anyone else who gets in the way. You'll notice that when the killing starts, the innocent suffer more than the guilty. Whatever.
How do the rich propose to protect themselves? Put the power of the state against the people? Haven't we understood by now that's a losing proposition?
Now, Editor is not going to be leading a mob to the house of whoever are the rich people in Washington DC. Truthfully, if it gets really bad, Editor can see his house, give the money to his kids, and go back home. The social security and pension he gets is quite enough to live on comfortably. Of course, he will have 1.2-billion neighbors and probably go mad from the heat, dust, noise, and overcrowding, as happened during his 20 years as an adult in Mother India, but you can't have everything.
Americans have nowhere to go. They'll have to fight.
One hopes that people see sense, stop blathering ideology, left and right, and get the country moving again. But then one hopes one gets a date on Saturday night.
(BTW, back home there is no shortage of dates on Saturday night, or any night, or any afternoon and morning.)
Good luck America. Editor is off to bed: he has to wake early to go earn his $93 "teaching" kids the majority of whom don't want to be in school, don't want to learn (many can't learn for various reasons), and don't understand their parents are paying heavy local taxes for them to get an education. Free universal education is a noble ideal, but truthfully again, public education in America's big cities is proof of the proposition when people are not directly paying out of their pocket for a public service or good, they have little value for it and will waste it.
If Editor's parents understood that even the poorest of them are paying thousands of dollars in state taxes, county taxes, sales taxes and so on for the schools, they would confiscate all their kids' gadgets, thrash them twice a day on principle, and cut their rations if they don't come home with a good grade.
Like our hero Glen Beck, we're just saying.
Today editor had a young lady who wouldn't put away her I-pod and I-phone till the Editor said he'd have to walk her over to the Principal's office. She put the stuff away with multiple appeals to God, as in "OMG! OMG! OMG! How can you do this to me!" (Nice to know one's students think one is God.) When Editor said how was she going to pass the class, she said: "I don't care if I pass this class! I don't care if I fail!" Then Editor had to tell her that if she didn't pass, since math is required to graduate, her parents would have to pay several hundred dollars for summer school. "I don't care! I don't care! " Then Editor said: "Lets use the teacher's phone to call your parents, who like most immigrants are working their butts off to buy you nice things, and you can tell them you don't care if they have to pay for summer school."
Well, she still didn't start studying, but she did put her head down and stop going "OMG! I don't care!"
Half the students do try. Half of them succeed. Half don't try. They leave school with no skills. The reason teachers teach on is because of the ones who do care and do try. Editor is getting tears in his eyes contemplate how noble he is.
But you wanna know the truth? If someone would give the Editor a real job, he'd jettison teaching in two eyeblinks. Then he'd be shouting in the classroom: "OMG! OMG! I don't care is you pass or fail!" There's a reason 50% of teachers drop out within 5 -years, and a reason the rate in inner-city school goes to 100%.

0230 GMT October 19, 2011

France, Germany agree on $2.7-trillion fund to meet the European debt crisis. 60-70 banks judged to have dangerous exposure to weak loans will have to up their capital:loan ratio to 9% as part of a separate deal. Whereas the IMF estimated this might require government help of $270-billion, because the banks will find it difficult raise additional capital in these turbulent times, the cost may come out at half that. Though in this business its best to assume the worst because invariably it turns out that someone has been fibbing about how strong they are or how much exposure they have to bad loans.
Not being overly cognizant of Euro-finance, we can't say if $2.7-trillion suffices to take care of all the countries that are going to need help.
Mr. Herman Cain and dialing 9-9-9 That's Mr. Cain's tax plan, and it also happens to be the British emergency number. Neither is there any danger that Mr. Cain will get elected, nor is there any chance that if by some cosmic fluke he is elected will he stick by this plan. But should even that happen, then the taxpayer will be dialing 999, but no help will come.
People who love to hate the federal government act as if the sole blood-sucking ghoul on the planet. But in reality, taxpayers have to ante up money to states too, and it's not just taxes, there's fees galore. Now, if the feds go 9-9-9, the money that goes from the feds to the states will stop. Further, stuff the feds do for the states will stop. So the states will have to raise taxes.
Some of our readers may be tempted to answer: "No they won't, because spending will be cut." Hmmmm. That's an interesting thesis/ But it won't happen.
The reason for that is that the government, believe it or not, is not an alien entity that has taken over America. The reason the government is so big (or not big enough, depending on your point of view) is that the people demand services.
Now while some of our readers are prepared to forgo a great deal by way of government services, its a fair bet that the big majority are not. The American people have been indulging in a nice LSD fantasy, that we can continue getting the current level of services while paying less. When we the citizens start tripping, no use to blame unscrupulous peddlers of LSD - our presidential candidates and politicians among them - from stepping with with more of the Good Stuff.
Lets take some examples. Aircraft crash because of an antiquated air traffic control system. A child is abducted across state lines and the FBI lacks the resources to coordinate a search to find her. A hurricane devastates part of the coast and there is no money to help people rebuild. There is a disease for which it is uneconomical for the private sector to manufacture a cure, so your little brother dies. Regulation has to be cut back, and the bank takes your money and gambles it on Mongolian Goat Bonds and you have no recourse. The George Washington Bridge is about to collapse, New York tells New Jersey: We need $2-billion to replace it, your share is half. New Jersey fuggabhatit. The Chinese take ascendency in a hundred key technologies because they subsidize their industries, Americans have to buy the technology from China at the beggers-cant-be-choosers price. We could go on, but its unnecessary.
So one way or the other, people will keep demanding the government do things for them, and if the feds don't do these things, the states will have to. Why? Because people will vote for these measures - they already have, its not like the government just decided to steal your money.
So Mr. Herman Cain's 9-9-9 will simply turn out to be another Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds.
Mongolian Goat Bonds Actually, given the current state of global finance, your money probably is safer in Mongolian Goat Bonds than other investments.

0230 GMT October 18, 2011

India to station cruise missiles along China border Reader Avik B. writes to tell us that the Government of India has cleared the next Army cruise missile regiment to go to the North East India border with China. The missiles are the joint Indo-Russian Brahmos, 290-km range triple launchers. we think a regiment has three batteries each with four launchers.The range is for Russia to comply with international agreements on transfer of missile technology, which establishes the cut-off range as 300-km.
This is an interesting development because it sends a message to China: you station missiles in Tibet, we'll station missiles on your borders. This is a change from the "don't aggravate the Chinese at all costs" school of Indian appeasement, which has been the vogue for fifty years.
Also of significance is that India is to up its Army presence in the Andaman Islands. Currently there is an independent mountain brigade in the islands. We're unclear if India is to raise one or two more brigades. An infantry battalion is is to be stationed on an outlying island. The plans for increasing India's naval and sea presence in the Indian Ocean were laid down years ago, and continue a pace.
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/china-flexing-muscles-govt-clears-brahmos-for-arunachal/860799/1
A second article talks about a change in Indian strategy to ensure that the next war is fought on enemy soil. We can argue if this is simply part of Cold Start, which is an offensive strategy, or something new. Personally the Editor tends to disregard statements on strategy because everything depends on the particular circumstances of how the war starts and on the enemy's plans. Since Pakistan strategy also calls for taking the war to India ASAP, we have to see who gets to implement their strategy first.
As many, many readers point out in response to the article, words are great, but we still have to see proof that India's leaders have the courage to go on the offensive. In 1999 (Kargil) and 2002 (response to Pakistan's December 2001 attack on the Indian Parliament) the government did not have the courage to react offensively, not least because it was kowtowing to Sam The Man. Sam is always concerned his protégée Pakistan not get whacked - 1947-48 (as junior partner to the Brits); 1965; 1971, several alarms in the 1980s and 1990s when it looked like India was going to attack terrorist training camps in Pakistan, Kargil, 2002 etc etc). Of course, Sam does not care what humiliation the Indians have to undergo, as long as the Indians show suitable "restraint". Suitable is defined by Washington. The Indians are yet to demonstrate they understand that Sam is not going to guarantee their interests against Pakistan , its up to the Indians to do their own guaranteeing.
http://www.hindustantimes.com/Deadlier-war-doctrine/H1-Article1-758114.aspx
US pullout from Eastern Afghanistan leaves Pakistan vulnerable says UK Guardian http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/17/us-troop-withdrawal-pakistan-vulnerable Principally, the mullah who led the Taliban take over of Dir and Swat fled to Afghanistan when the Pakistan Army moved against him three years ago, Now he is mounting raids with a view to making a comeback. This gentleman is part of the anti-Pakistan Taliban, a coalition of groups that believes the Pakistan government is as heretical as the Americans and must be overthrown by force. So Pakistan has been demanding the US/Afghans hand over the mullah.
The poor, poor, Pakistanis. We feel so bad for them. Not. Now they're getting a taste of their own medicine and they don't like it a bit.
A little bird tells us the situation is actually a bit more complex. (BTW, why is always a little bird that whispers these things in one's ear? Why can't it be a big bird? Ah, the imponderable mysteries of life.
Back to the little bird. It tells us that actually the mullah is not doing any mentionable damage to Pakistan. The Pakistanis are using this as an excuse not to hand over the Haqqanis. The idea is: you tell us we have to hand over our allies to you, what about handing over your ally to us?
At which point readers may be forgiven for asking: "Wait a minute, the Swat Mullah is a US ally?"
Well, of course he isn't. This is just the usual Pakistani conspiracy theory, that the US is plotting to destabilize Pakistan.
The Pakistanis are perfectly correct when they accuse the Indians of helping the anti-Pakistan Taliban. This has been going on for some years now. The Indians, of course, deny this, but they have been aiding Sind separatists for decades, are back in Balochistan after an interval, and yes, have been aiding the anti-Pakistan Taliban. Your enemy's enemy, that sort of thing. Its a tactical move to complicate Pakistan's life, in retaliation for Pakistan attacks against Kashmir.
At this point, of course, the US can counter Pakistan's demands by saying (a) tell us where the Swat mullah is and we'll get him for you; or (b) we only have 3500 troops in all of eastern Pakistan, a single brigade, and we don't have the ability to defeat hi,. The US could add that, after all, the Pakistan Army has the equivalent of six divisions in its north-west and habitually claims it lacks force to counter insurgents attacking Afghanistan, so how can a single brigade stop the Swat mullah.
Its just one-upmanship, but sometimes you have to play that game, immature as it may be.

0230 GMT October 17, 2011

Libya Sirte lull, Government forces resume offensive in Bani Walid.
Senator McCain's Africa warning We are great admirers of Senator McCain. But after he warned President Obama of getting mired down in Africa, we're wondering if the Old Boy needs a short break. The good senator has had no problem with our being mired down in Afghanistan. Moreover, all the US is doing is sending 100 advisors to aid in the fight to destroy the Lord's Resistance Army, whose human rights violation boggle the mind. Doubtless part of the mission - if not actually the whole mission - is to locate the LRA commander, a psychotic by the name of Kony, for a visit by a UAV or two. May we ask why its okay to go on fighting in Afghanistan and not pay some attention to Africa?
Now, Senator McCain has a legitimate complaint that the President did not consult with Congress before taking this step. Reuters quotes him as saying: "I've been under four presidents, and this is the least communicative with Congress of any administration that I've ever seen," he said. "Maybe it has something to do with the polarization of politics, but it is unfortunate." Well, by now we know the Great Communicator our prez is not. This is what you get when you elect a junior policy wonk as prez instead of a seasoned politician. Of course, the adult in the room in 2008 was Senator McCain. But he was far too radical for his party. Just our thought.
Will GOP presidential win in 2012 end gridlock? No says one observer. The GOP would have to add 13 seats to its Senate total to prevent filibusters. Just as the GOP has happily used or threatened to use this tactic during the Obama presidency, the Democrats will also use it. Thirteen seats seems a very far reach.
So either way, we may well have another four years of a Do Nothing Congress. America, thank you and have a nice next five years.
Can software types every get it right? We're beginning to doubt it. Editor's $400 E-Machine desk top had 768MB of RAM, and as time went by, it just became slower and slower. He asked Help Desk at University College, University of Maryland, where Editor does his courses, for help. A nice tech took a remote look, made some suggestions, and said more memory was required. So Editor hied over to Office Depot, paid $135 for 2GB of RAM including installation (he could have done the job himself for $70, but when you have papers and exams due you don't want to take a chance of mucking up something.)
So for a couple of weeks the computer was quite zipping. Then..it...began....slowing.....down......again. So Editor went to Task Manager, and lo, the programs were running amok. When Editor had 768-MB, Firefox used to take up ~75MB. Now with the additional memory, the same Firefox is taking up 3-500MB+ - and running slower. Same with McAfee - more space, slower service. Then Yahoo decided it wanted to hijack the Google default search page, just for the heck of it. Yahoo has never done that, why start now? And who in their right mind will give up using Google for Yahoo anyway?
Then Hotmail decided it didn't want to attach documents in emails. so now when attaching documents, Editor has to use Internet Explorer. Why not Chrome? Because Chrome decided it wanted to artistically display its screen to the right and down. So the Close and Minimize buttons were out of sight, You can do an F11 for a full screen. Then you don't have a tool bar. when you're going through hundreds of web pages a day, this is a major hassle. Then Google Translate Taskbar says it can't work with Firefox 5, only with earlier versions. So to translate, you know have to cut and paste into Google Translate, then go back and repeat the procedure every web page you are looking at. That cuts productivity by half. And then G-Mail says its functionality is reduced when working with IE 7, so upgrade. So IE 8 crashes the computer. As for IE 9, cant work with Windows XP, need something later.
Here's a suggestion for the software companies. Take a fully loaded .45 revolver. Put it to your temple. Play Russian Roulette. And have a nice day.

0230 GMT October 16, 2011

Iraq: Game Over One hundred and sixty US troops will remain. To guard the US Embassy. The Iraqis have said "Thanks, but no thanks" to our offer to keep 30,000 troops there indefinitely.
And you know what? They've just done us the biggest favor.
Re. our wondering how 40,000 troops can make it out of Iraq by December 31. Five hundred and fifty troops a day are leaving. Mission accomplished.
And Iraq is taking Syria's side in the troubles there. Baghdad doesn't want an unstable neighborhood. Sound familiar? We let Saddam be for years and years because we didn't want an unstable neighborhood either.
Before anyone gnashes their teeth at Iraq's behavior: we said we wanted Iraq to be free. Free means free. We have to take the good with the bad.
Afghanistan Reader Luxembourg sent a link to a Michael Yon blog story about how a soldier who stepped on a mine during an air assault died because of bureaucratic rules about who gets to send what helicopter for medevac. Though helicopters were available 20-minutes flight away, it took so long for a helicopter to be dispatched that the soldier did not make it.
http://www.michaelyon-online.com/red-air-americas-medevac-failure.htm
The problem, as Yon explained, is that Army medevac helicopters are unarmed as required by the rules of war - they are painted with red crosses. So they require escorts. Since no Apache was available, the Army medevac helicopters could not fly. Air Force pararescue helicopters were available, armed, and no red crosses. But due to rules, Air Force helicopters cannot come into Army air space unless the weather is so bad Army cannot fly.
As you might expect, the blog post attracted a torrent of letters - 170+ in 72-hours.As a Vietnam veteran reminded people - in Vietnam "dustoff" elicopters were on two-minute standby. They were supposed to be escorted by attack helicopters. But regardless of if escort was available, helicopters were expected to have skids up in two minutes, and they routinely did.
The above story makes it clear, once again, that as we have been saying, US is so concerned to minimize casualties that force protection, not combat is the priority.
Our take on this story is a bit different. The target was a village 40-km from Bagram. We did not see any recognition in any of the scores of letters we scrolled through that here is the US, ten years on, and it has to assault a village that is 40-kilometers from Kabul and NATO/US's main air base? The enemy appears well dug in, and presumably have been around for a while.
Well, we can't remember how far Bien Hoa was from Saigon, but we seem to think it was around the same distance. If after 10 years of war Bien Hoa was not safe as houses, heads would have rolled. In Afghanistan, on the other hand, no one in America - government, media, intellectuals, public, whatever - seems to think it the least strange.
Now look, people, we are quite aware of why 40-km from Bagram you have a well-dug in enemy. Afghanistan has four times the area of South Vietnam. US forces in RVN peaked at 550,000, and the South Vietnamese themselves had at least as many troops, to say nothing of local defense and so on. Fair enough.
But in case anyone has forgotten, in Vietnam the US faced at peak 300,000 VC/PAVN. Not only were these gentlemen armed to the teeth with everything including artillery and armor, they were probably the best infantry the world has seen in the modern history with possibly the exception of the German infantry. Afghanistan is transparent to US reconnaissance, South Vietnam was opaque. And the Taliban number at best 30,000, of whom most are simply chilling, coming to fight when they feel like it. As for competence, the Taliban are a standing joke.
Yes, in Vietnam you could send in the B-52s, and the effect of a 3-cell B-52 strike was equivalent to 3 or more lower-yield tactical nuclear weapons. You can't B-52 Afghanistan. But given US can put bombs within 10-meters of aim point any time of the night or day, you don't need to carpet bomb anyone.
Our point here is: Washington can say what it likes, this is not a war we are winning. For people to say "oh, we're being forced to pull out too early" is tommy-rot. How much time do you want? Twenty years? Fifty years? A hundred years. In ten years we haven't been able to train up more than a single Afghan army battalion for independent operations. What does this indicate? That we need more time? No, it indicates we have as massively failed at training as we have at fighting the Taliban. And please lets not go on about Pakistan as a sanctuary. The Vietnam problem was far, far worse. Entire PAVN divisions and corps used to flit back and forth as they pleased, ditto Viet Cong battalions and regiments.
When you have failed, and failed, and failed, do you, the US military, State, intelligence, government, so on and so forth, have any right to ask for more time? We don't think so, particularly when you have shown you have no ideas how to change the situation.
Moreover, if the Afghans don't think its worth dying for their country, why on earth is the government/military telling us its okay for Americans to die for Afghanistan?
But back to the Yon story. Some letter writers were angry that the US doesn't have enough helicopters in Afghanistan. Okay, but when Apaches cost $20-million each, forty times what a HueyCobra cost, and US GDP has increased by five times in the intervening decades (inflation adjusted dollars), how precisely are we going to get more Apaches? And let Editor whisper something in your ear: Surprise! There were never enough helicopters in Vietnam either.
As for the bureaucracy part, well, sorry about that but Editor is not outraged. For one thing, you want bureaucracy that costs the lives of troops, hie over to India. For another, where you have organizations you have bureaucracy. As much in the private sector as in the public. here you all are arguing that a medevac helicopter reached too late. In India, in 99% of cases when a soldier is wounded or injured, no medevac helicopter reaches - ever. For an army of 1.3-million, half of which is deployed in truly horrible terrain, there are less than 550 helicopters, army and air force combined.

0230 GMT October 15, 2011

Government fighters shooting each other in Sirte says UK Guardian. This is not new news, but the newspaper gives some details that might not be widely known. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/14/sirte-fighters-shoot-own-side
One problem, as expected, is that inexperienced government fighters are not properly aiming weapons such as mortars. Another problem is "weekend fighters" who advance behind other fighters and fire from the back. Guardian also mentions what we have been saying: the government fighters don't want to go in and clear out loyalists snipers, so they are simply blasting away with tanks, artillery, and rockets. if they can't get their mortar fire on target one wonders how much of the heavy weapon fire is landing on target.
Russia to scrap remaining Typhoon SSBNs says Defensenews.com. Three boats remain; three have already been scrapped, and one was never completed.
What caught our eye is an estimate that the submerged displacement of these boats could be as high as 34,000-tons. An Ohio displaces under 19,000-tons, and normally the figure given for the Typhoons is 26,000-tons. An interesting aspect of the Ohio class is that their 45-MW nuclear reactor delivers 60,000-shaft-horse-power, but the Typhoon's 190-MW x 2 reactors deliver only 50,000-shp each.
Ultimately its the payload that matters. The Ohios can deliver 240 warheads (10 x 24 missiles); the Typhoons 200 (10 x 20 missiles). The advantage of the Typhoon is that it has several hulls and you would have to seriously whack one to put it down for good.
Good enough for US Ivy League, can't get into Delhi University So New York Times has a story about an Indian girl with 93.6% marks who was rejected by Delhi University for not making the grade. She was accepted by Cornell, Bryn Mawr, Duke, Wesleyan, Barnard and the University of Virginia. Lest you are tempted to think: oh well, the US colleges are happy to take students willing to pay, Dartmouth offered this girl $20,000/year and Smith $15,000/year. She chose Dartmouth.
The cut off point for economics at St. Stephens College, a prestigious Delhi University institution, is 95.5%. For the Indian institutes of Technology, 500,000 apply - after investing two years in prep classes. Ten thousand are accepted.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/14/world/asia/squeezed-out-in-india-students-turn-to-united-states.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&ref=global-home
In India, by the way, no college is interested that you captained three different sports teams, play two musical instruments at virtuoso level, and volunteer at the local charity plus have had your first novel published and have patented green toilets. All that matters is your grades. and not just only your grades, but your grades on the combined 12th Grade exams. It's your one and only chance.
Often when Editor is substituting at school, a story he read many, many years ago comes to mind. This was about a group of American high school students who went to France. Very proudly one of the students told the journalist: the French students work too hard. We taught them to have fun.
Right. American students, even at the very best schools, believe school and college are times to have fun. Some will tell you: "we play hard, but we work hard."
I tell them: "Unless you have figured out how to live in two different universes at the same time, every minute of playing hard you indulge in means a minute less to work hard. None of you would last a a month in an Indian school, or a Chinese, or a Japanese, or a South Korean school."
They say nothing, because on one level, they do realize the truth of what Editor is telling them.
Now, it's true that Indian schools don't teach students to do a lot of reasoning. Its mainly memorization and working problems. But conversely, American students are weak on facts, so what are they going to reason with.
And when those same Indian fact-absorbing students come to the US, where the emphasis is on reasoning, once they learn the American way, they have an advantage American students can't match.

0230 GMT October 14, 2011

Israel and the 1000-to-1 exchange Let us first state clearly it is none of our business if Israel decides to exchange one thousand Palestinian prisoners including many accused or convicted of terrorists act for one soldier. If the Israelis feel its a fair deal, that's fine. But we don't think it is a good idea. The deal shows Israel's enemies that it can be majorly blackmailed.
Moreover, Israel, like the US, puts so high a premium on its soldiers that essentially neither army really fights. The primary focus is on force protection, on taking no risks that will lead to casualties or troops becoming prisoners. Fighting has become secondary.
You can say "Editor, it isn't your son that's at stake." True. Which is why if any of Editor's children had become soldiers, his advice would have been: "never be taken prisoner". The great British military historian John Keegan once estimated in World War 2 those who surrendered had a 50-50 chance of being taken alive. In Vietnam, it was a terribly bad idea for an American to be taken alive. There's no figures, but few who surrendered or were captured survived. And the same is probably true of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Just our thoughts.
Sirte, Libya Please be prepared to yawn: Sirte has not fallen. So far every time the government forces close in on the last remaining loyalist positions, loyalist sniper and grenadiers force the government forces back. Government has been banging away with scores of guns and tanks (if not the low hundreds) and getting nowhere. Remember, as we've said, in urban warfare all this heavy firepower simply creates good cover for the defenders.
But then how did the US Marines in Fallujah do it? Simple. They first gave people a month to leave, and then they blew up every single house, building, motor vehicle, or whatever using a combination of direct assault and firepower. In warfare its called the problem of the last 100-meters - though in urban warfare its probably more like the last 25-meters. That's when you, the attacker, has to leave cover, expose himself, dash for the target, and hope you make it before you're shot. If you want results, you can't avoid a direct assault. Government forces don't want to that. And hey, we're not blaming them, no one wants to die, but this sort of thing is what separates the pros from the amateurs. Like it or not, the loyalists left are pros, and the government forces are amateurs.
Former IMF Chief cannot be tried on French attempted sexual assault charge because of French statute of limitations. If you recall, after he was accused in New York, the journalist daughter of a friend of his came forward to say the gentleman some years back had attempted to assault her but she fought him off. She says her mother said not to make an issue of it as she, the daughter, would become the story.
Nonetheless, the young lady involved has said she will pursue a civil suit, as is her right. The New York accuser is also pursuing a civil suit.

0230 GMT October 13, 2011

Iranian alleged assassination plot Reader Rahul Luhar wonders about the alleged Iranian plot to kill the Saudi ambassador to the US by blowing up a Washington restaurant the ambassador frequents. He writes: "The Quds Force is known for its professionalism and ruthlessness and this rather ham-handed attempt smacks of amateurishness." The UK Observer quotes the oft-quoted ex-CIA officer, Robert Baer, to say the alleged plot stinks because the QF is efficient http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/11/alleged-iran-plot-middle-east-war The Observer does not take a position on this being a set up, instead it notes this could be a rogue operation.
Well, if we were all as efficient as our reputations, no one would make mistakes. If you want examples of Amateur Hour, none is better than the childish US CIA efforts to kill Castro. Contrary to what conclusions people may have drawn from those efforts of a past era, the CIA is every bit as ruthlessly professional as the Iranian QF. We will say no more than say if you doubt us, ask the QF people in Iran.
Another example is the Mossad 2010 killing of the Hamas arms buyer in Dubai. Makes the CIA in the Castro days look positively professional.
We are happy at any opportunity to trash the Iranians, but there is a problem with this plot. And that is that two US drug Enforcement Agency confidential informers are at the center of affairs. Now, informers or undercover DEA agents are not supposed to initiate deals. You can't make friends with a target and then say "What ho, lets do a deal". That's entrapment. The informer/undercover agent have to wait till the target says "What ho, lets do a deal." But that's the rules. Unless the accused can prove he was entrapped - something very difficult - the court will not make that assumption. And after all, even if you are entrapped, you are free to say, "What ho, lets NOT do a deal" and make tracks.
That a QF operator would look to a hired gun to do the job is understandable. QF operators may now their backyard intimately, but the US is a foreign country. That they would also look for a drug-gang killer is also understandable, given the ruthlessness of the breed.
Nonetheless, it is possible that that the QF operator was set up. Our point is, so what? It takes two to tango, and it doesn't matter who takes the lead in asking for a dance.
As for the unfortunate gentleman in US custody, he will be tried by a terror court and no one will be overly concerned if he was entrapped - assuming he can prove it, which we've said is unlikely.
Now look for QF to kidnap a valuable American to use as a hostage in getting their man freed. Assuming QF sanctioned the operation. If the man is a rogue, then we hopes he enjoys living alone in 8 x 10 foot underground cells for extended periods of time - lets just say a few decades. If he behaves, he will get his few minutes of exercise, but no one says that has to be in the open air. On days he doesn't behave, he wont get even that. As for the rest of what happens in a US SuperMax, best not to ask. Better to obey the law, however irksome.
For another skeptical view, read http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/12/us-usa-security-iran-plot-idUSTRE79B50420111012
Iraq takes control of its airspace as of October 1, 2011, according to defensenews.com . Almost 42,000 US troops still remain in Iraq, despite the Iraqi requirement almost all leave by year end. We are unclear on how so large a number of troops is going to be withdrawn in the remaining part of the year.
US town testing crime prediction software In Philip K. Dick's Minority Report (2002 movie with Tom Cruise) the police have the ability to predict who will commit a crime - before the future perp even thinks of it. Well, in Santa Cruz, California the police are testing mathematical software that predicts where crimes will take place, allowing police to step up patrols in anticipation of trouble. You can read about it at http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21128333.400-cops-on-the-trail-of-crimes-that-havent-happened.html Then scratch your head and wonder what comes next.

0230 GMT October 12, 2011

Mr. Romney and the new American Century Sensible American politicians appear to believe if they tell the truth they will lose elections. This raises a question. Doesn't that imply that only liars will offer themselves for elections? If so, why elect liars?
Lately we have the phenomenon of Mr. Romney offering his vision of a new American century. Lets do some elementary math. A country's power depends largely on its GDP. We can argue about percentages, but for any country to have its century that country probably needs around 35-40% of global GDP. The US is down to 20%.
We are not prone to make rosy assumptions about China imminently overtaking the US in total GDP. an extreme version of this school of thought has China doubling its current GDP in six years, and then doubling again in about seven or 8, over taking the US by around 2025. It's going to take longer than that. But it is going to happen, because China has four times as many people as the US. Then there's India, plodding along at 7-8% annual growth. Doubling every 9 years or so, India will reach current US levels by 2035 and likely overtake the US by 2050. These are just back-of-the-envelope calculations, but they suffice.
It's possible that by 2050 is down to 10% of world GDP because, after all, the US has only 5% of the world's people and other places like South America and Africa have no place to go but up.
It's worth recalling how the US, with a tint fraction of the world's population, managed to reach 40-45% of world GDP in the late 1940s. First, the other five major industrial powers - UK, France, Germany, Japan, and the USSR - were flattened. Second, the US was - and still is - richly endowed with natural resources. Third, Americans were at the forefront in technology. Fourth, capitalism combined with natural resources and technology gave the US enormous financial resources. You can add to this list.
Thanks to globalization, natural resources can be obtained anywhere by any country. Europe has as much capital as the US, and China is coming up fast. Technology has gone global: if you don't invent it yourself, you can buy it from other countries. Forget that the US can't compete in labor/productivity costs with China, it can't compete with Germany and Japan, who have higher wage structures than we do. In fact, the US is in danger of becoming the next great low-cost wage structure country, which will certainly help us to rise again, but even when we do, we will have just a small fraction of world GDP. We have lost our will to explore new frontiers. In another couple of decades a third of our GDP will go for health care. Lets not talk about our sinking infrastructure. We refuse to pay more taxes and have firmly convinced ourselves that individual greed is good and the common good can go where it wants to.
So, will Mr. Romney please tell us how he proposes a new American century will come about?
You can, of course, argue that Americans are so much in decline they cannot face the truth. So we had Mr. Bush who promised us - wait, what did he promise us, can anyone pin it down? Then we have Mr. Obama, who promised us an unemployment rate of 5% by 2013 and health care for everyone that would cost no more than health care for the 80% who had it. He promised us an end to the soft police state that America has become in the age of the Global War On Terror. It was a wonderful vision. Too bad it was all lies. Now we have a whole raft of GOP candidates, of whom Mr. Romney is front runner, and has a reasonable chance of winning, and what is he promising us? A new American century.
It's beautiful, man, just beautiful. And Mitt, pass us that joint, will'ya?

0230 GMT October 11, 2011

We did not update October 8, 9, and 10 as the server was down. Our service provider generously charges us very little, though we are serious bandwidth and disk space hogs because of the rest of the site (which we have not been maintaining but all the material posted is still available. So when something goes wrong we don't get much priority from the service provider, understandably.

Europeans agree on strengthening bank capitalization As far as we are concerned, the way is now clear for a Greek default. Its true the Germans and French keep swearing they will not let a Greek default happen, but the reality is Greece can never pay back the money it has borrowed. end of story. The rest is just verbiage for political and financial reasons.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15250880
The Belgian Bank Dexia As part of the strengthening of European banks, France and Belgium have nationalized Dexia, Belgium's largest bank in which the French have a substantial share.
Now get this, people. Belgium GDP is $465-billion (2011). Dexia's debts are $700-billion. Okay, this may be be the largest Belgian bank, but it is just one of many. And it has managed to lend out a sum of money that exceeds the country's GDP by over 40%? Doubtless banker types will have a sophisticated explanation for why its okay for a bank to lend out more money than its home country's entire GDP. And these sophisticated fools that have brought down the world.
We recall at the height of the 2008 crisis being told that no one really knew what the value of derivatives was, but it could be as much as $55-trillion. So we went "but - but - but that's almost as much as the entire planet's GDP, how can anyone lend that sum of money and what has it been used for? Where are the pipelines, the factories, the bridges, the ships, the airlines worth that sum of money?"
Our question was followed by a lengthy pause before the person said: "Ravi, you obviously don't understand international finance." We said "you're right. Can you explain it to us, simply as to a little child?"
We're still waiting.
US UAVs attacked by computer virus says reader Luxembourg, forwarding an article from Wired http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/10/virus-hits-drone-fleet/ The virus is a keystroke logger. While it has not affected operations and as far as is known no information is being transmitted, the virus has proved resistant to removal so far.
More on Steve Jobs In a sickening pander, Business week devoted all 68 pages of its October 10 issue to Steve Jobs. When we say all pages, we mean all pages because there is not a single ad in the issue. Of course, the whole thing is an ad for Steve Jobs and Apple.
We are quite taken aback, because Business Week is not, as you would imagine, a purchased shill of the corporate world. Its quite an independent magazine and takes some pretty radical positions at times. recently it ran a big article pointing out that while Marx was ultimately wrong about capitalism, a lot of what he said about the ills of capitalism has been proved to be correct in the current global crisis.
Anyway. Elsewhere we read that of the $1.35-trillion in profits American companies are holding overseas to shield the money from US taxes, Pfizer is the biggest offender with $41-billion followed by Apple with $40-billion. As someone has said, the money didn't get overseas by accident: these companies have deliberately created elaborate tax dodges. Google is another major offender, by the way.
Re. the pleas of these companies that they be allowed to repatriate the money under a tax holiday and they will use it to create jobs: don't get taken in for a second. There was a tax holiday in 2004, and the money was NOT used to create jobs.
The problem is not there is no money to invest. American companies are sitting on over $1-trillion of capital at home. But there is no demand, so how can these companies create jobs?
They are not in the business of bailing out the economy - that's what the government is there for apparently, though on this we side with our Libertarian friends and say it is not the government's job to use taxpayer money to save big corporations. It's different if there is a massive disaster that no one could foretell. But the crisis we are in is caused by the reckless speculating by the financial sector.
When the government takes the burden of private companies' moral hazard, this is not capitalism. This is a variant of fascism where the government and private enterprise work together to control the people for the benefit of the government and the capitalists. Classical fascism requires the active participation of the church and the media in this scheme. The church is no longer important as a political force because it has been replaced by the Great God of Consumerism at whose church we all worship not just on Sunday but on every day of the week. As for the media, sure there is the internet and so on, but 95% of the media that people access every day is controlled by the corporates.
It is useless to imagine the companies will invest to create jobs when there's no one to buy their products. It is time that we dispensed with the fantasies of both left and right.

0230 GMT October 7, 2011

Mr. Obama and the banks Mr. Obama gave money to the banks to see them through the financial crisis, and gave crumbs to the little people. Now he wants the banks to be grateful and to lend money so that jobs can be created and the economy saved.
Really.
Now that we've finished laughing and can see straight again, let's note something. Mr. Obama, backed by the United states Congress, gave money to the banks because he had no choice. The banks along with the big corporations own him down to his underwear, just as they own members of Congress. They piped, our government paid. It was not an act of survival for the country, it was paying back favors.
So why exactly should the banks oblige him by lending money? The money he lent them was their due for the money they gave him - and the members of Congress. If he wants them to lend, he has to deliver a new pro for the quid, and they want a lot more than just a tax cut. They want an end to every regulation that inhibits their looting of the American public. Were he to give them that, they'd say it wasn't enough and they'd want more.
The banks wont lend till demand improves. Demand wont improve because people have no jobs. Its called the vicious circle. and we're smack in the middle.
Sirte, Libya Defenders still hanging on. In a reversal, the firepower advantage is completely with the government forces, and they're using the firepower, in addition to being backed by NATO firepower.
Al Jazzera said loyalists on night of October 6/7 actually counterattacked, infiltrating sniper forward by 500-meters. The guessing is this was to give room for an important loyalists to escape, likely the Gaddaffi son leading the defense. If this is true, then fighting could end when he is killed or escapes.
Al Jazz makes a very important point which we have made off and on. The government forces are using firepower, but have still to make a proper ground assault. And heck, we understand. Who wants to die? But that's where real armies differ from the government's fighters. The job of the leaders of a real army is to force their men to take the objective, no matter who dies.
Now the thing with using firepower in a city? It creates rubble and more rubble. Makes it easier for the defenders to hold on.
Okay, but what about supplies? The loyalists have not been getting any. Surely they must be out. Two things. The loyalists spend a long time preparing. if - as is being said some - there are only 800 loyalist fighters left, you can see 10-tons of supplies a day will see them through fine, particularly as they have no heavy weapons to worry about. And we have this suspicion that the cordon the government forces have in place around Sirte was never as tight as the government forces would have us believe. we think supplies were getting through even after the siege began. This may not be true any more, but again, Al Jazz is told the loyalists hold 20-square-kilometers. That's a lot of area to cordon off partocuarly if the government forces are disinclined to make a ground assault.
Steve Jobs The world is in mourning, the headlines inform us. Let's see if we can get this straight. Here is a gentleman who invented stuff. more stuff, and yet more stuff that people just had to have or they would die. And the bulk of his stuff was manufactured in China. The world is mourning him? That just shows how messed up the world really is.
That said, one good thing about him as far as we are concerned is his refusal to pledge to give away his fortune to charity. It's his money. He earned it fair and square. He refused to try and buy his way into heaven by giving his money away while he was alive. Good. Or if he did give money away, it was done secretly. Also good.

0230 GMT October 6, 2011

Election 2012 The American presidential race is about as intellectually enlightening as American Idol, and considerably less significant. Nonetheless, here is our very short report on developments.
Rick Perry has self-destructed and at this time it appears that Mitt Romney will be the GOP candidate. If he shifts closer to the center after he is nominated, in Our Not So Humble Opinion, he could easily win.
The reason is that poor Mr. Obama diminishes day-by-day. We won't speculate on the reasons for this, except to say that "Barack, we scarcely knew ye". Or "To know, know, know you is not to love, love, love you."
We think it would be dishonest to dismiss good old honest racism in the increasingly negative perception of Mr. Obama. But if racism was all there is to it, he wouldn't have been elected in the first place. And it's also worth speculating to what extent are people NOT trashing Mr. Obama because they don't want to be seen as racist. In other words, reverse racism may be keeping his poll numbers as high as Gallup's latest "satisfied" rating of 3% for Republicans, 9% for independents, and 20% for Democrats. meaning, but for the race factor it might even be a lot lower. Of course, no one can tell how November 2012 turns out. May be everyone is just simply too fed up by then to really care.
To us the happy take-away from the latest poll figures is that both houses of Congress are going to get soundly thrashed. The sad thing is We The People will simply put in another bunch of incompetents.
The Wall Street Protests Yawn. Snooze. Snore.
And at that we are no fans of Wall Street or of the Big Banks. Yesterday Washington Post said 41% of American corporate profits are made by the banking sector. Day before it quoted studies showing that in the last 40 years the compensation of non-supervisory workers has declined by 10%, the compensation of CEOs has increased by 400%.
Hang them all, we say. But our feeling is the American people are very, very far from a revolution. And the problem with revolutions is that you never know how they turn out. That things could get worse after a revolution is hardly inconceivable.
Amanda Knox Verdict We will now confirm the worst prejudices of feminists about men being sexist animals without any redeeming qualities by saying we are glad Ms. Knox was freed on appeal. We have no idea if she's innocent, moreover, as far as we are concerned her innocence or guilt is irrelevant. We are glad she was freed because she is - er - intellectually very smart. In case readers are wondering what that is about, its code for Ms. Knox is hot. These days to appreciate a woman for her looks as opposed to her brains is considered sexist. That is why code is neccessary. We think hot women should be judged differently from the rest of us. You can't get more sexist than that.
Conversely, we believe anyone who murders a beautiful woman should be entitled to no consideration: death by hanging and quartering is too good for them. We specifically have in mind the Arab singer who was killed on the orders of a jealous ex, and the Indian-origin lady who was murdered on her honeymoon in South Africa.
A British court has ruled the husband, who is wanted for questioning by South African police, has ordered he can be extradited. Among the people arrested for the murder is one who claims the husband paid him to stage a robbery attempt and kill the wife. The rumor is that the husband is gay. If this is so, it is doubly tragic: first that the man had to hide his sexuality from his own family and the world to the point he agreed to get married, and second that a young woman through no fault of hers lost her life, presumably because the man was afraid of exposure.

0230 GMT October 5, 2011

Another reason not to give the Euros advice on their economies US has, once again, passed a budget for a few weeks of government operations. A government that cannot produce an annual budget, not just once, but several times in a year, is by any definition dysfunctional. Naturally we Americans are the best at everything, and so too we are best at making complete asses of ourselves over our budget. We are so dysfunctional that we accept extreme dysfunction as - well, normal.
Meanwhile overseas they just shake their heads. There are so many examples of American craziness that actually foreigners don't think failure to pass a budget shows American dysfunction. It shows - well, that given America's nutzoid state, not having a budget is quite normal for America.
Living in America as we do, we can give three-hour off-the-cuff lectures to our Euro friends on why America is in this state. But the reality is, no matter how much those explanations make sense to Americans, to other countries they make no sense at all. And neither do we know that we are making no sense, and if we did know that, we wouldn't care. That's how far gone we are. a crazy person, after all, think he is sane and everyone else is crazy.
Given our state, it might really be best if we didn't give advice to the Europeans on how to run their economies.
No Child Left Behind: the Federal Government scores big time Fair disclosure: we support the federal government and we think government has a critical role to play in the life of nations.
But here is the sort of news that feeds anti-federal government feelings. In 2001 the federal government imposed No Child Left Behind on the states. By 2014, every school child in America would have to be proficient in reading and math. The result after tens of billions of dollars and the lord alone knows how much wasted effort? Three-quarters of American schools are in danger of failing under NCLB.
Now, if you follow education, you'll know NCLB was one colossally stupid act to pass. How can every child in America be successful in reading and math? Only if you define so low that everyone can pass. But that didn't stop the government from proposing this bill, and Congress - dear, dear Congress, that Ship Of Fools, from passing it. Well, you know, some 1200 years years ago a king by name of Canute told the sea not to wet his feet as he sat in his fancy chair by the water's edge. Big surprise: the sea didn't listen to him. US Government/Congress passed an act, but guess what? It was such a dumb act that it ended up defining three of every four schools as failing.
Any moron could have told government/Congress that this would happen. But if you are telling a moron something, it doesn't matter how smart or how stupid the message bearer, the moron isn't going to it.
And so it was with the federal government and Congress. And please, people: can we stop just blaming the federal government and ending the discussion? Congress has to pass the laws proposed by the government. Congress is just as much to blame. And we, dear citizens, are also to blame for electing morons to Congress? What does that tell us about ourselves?
Remember how in America we are supposed to take responsibility for our actions? That means not blaming someone else for our problems. We can start with this matter of a dysfunctional governing system, you know, the one we put in place...
By the way, to appreciate just how stupid the NCLB federal mandate is, suppose tomorrow the Government proposes every child has to run the 100-meters in 20-seconds. A school that doesn't get all its kids to that standard is then declared as failing. Wouldn't you go: "What the (rude word)?" But that's NCLB.

0230 GMT October 4, 2011

Democracy in Libya means a Jewish right of return Before Gaddaffi's revolution, about 40,000 Jews lived in Libya. They had to flee. Now the west has helped free Libya, and pretty soon there will be elections. America has an exceptionally strange attitude towards freedom of religion as a human right. In the years after the US overthrew Saddam, Christians had a terrible time in Iraq and have basically been forced out. In Saudi Arabia you can be thrown in jail for possession of a bible. We hate to think what the Saudis would do if some Indian workers set up a makeshift temple. Religious oppression in China is a fact of life. In the land of our great ally, Pakistan, any person can go to the police and allege you disrespected the Koran or the Prophet, and is not just jail for you, its a death sentence. Christians are particularly vulnerable.
This nonsense has to stop. Freedom of worship is a basic human right under the United Nations, moreover, it is a right under US law. if other countries want our help, we have every right to insist they follow the rules of the UN, which speaks of universal rights that a human being is entitled to simply by being born as a human being. Its not terribly complicated.
Libya's Jews have a right to return - as do the Jews in Iraq, Egypt and so on. We have never accepted as correct the Jewish position they have a right to return to the land for their forefathers, which they fled or departed two millennia ago. But there is a bit of difference between 1948, or 1967, and 70 AD.
Yes, the Jews who lived in Israel when Israel was formed threw out Palestinians. But why blame Jews who lived as citizens of Egypt, Libya, and so on? What crime did these people commit?
The world has for the last 65 years accepted the proposition that properties of Jews seized by others once World War 2 began has to be returned to them. The same thing applies here, in Libya.
A Jewish person arrived in Tripoli to start cleaning up an abandoned synagogue that was turned into a rubbish dump. He was warned by people around to stop. The head of the NTC says he has more important things to attend to. Sorry about that, old chap, you do NOT have more important things to attend to. You are the head of the NTC as opposed to feeding the vultures in the desert because the west intervened for your freedom. Don't insult western values by saying you don't have the time. Its western values that put you where you are, and don't you dare ever forget it.
Our contribution to solving America's political problems In the interests of business efficiency and the free market, which we whole heartedly support, we have a proposition to solve America's political problems. The truth of the matter is that American politicians on the national level, and to a lesser extent on the state level, buy their way into office by a very complicated and very expensive system called Elections.
We propose a simple auction system where contenders for office will bid against each other. This will eliminate the billions and billions of dollars that are spent publically and privately on elections, which are a complete farce. Not only will be we get honesty in the electoral system, the money can be put toward debt reduction.
No need to thank us, just another solution offered to you free courtesy of Orbat,com
You have problems, we have solutions [This phrase is copyrighted, please note].

0230 GMT October 3, 2011

North America: Hydrocarbon Center of the World?

We've been told for so many years the world is running out of oil many people actually believe this. We've mentioned many times that the world is running out of the easy oil, but altogether the world has used only one-third of its known oil. The next one-third, 2 trillion barrels, has started to be mined as new technologies have matured. The remaining one-third is not feasible with current technology. Nonetheless, at current rates of usage, there's enough oil available with today's technology for seventy more years. If in seventy more years we haven't developed large-scale, economical, and safe fusion power, better we out away our tools and go back to painting the insides of caves. Even then, we'll still have that last third to extract.
But now the plan has changed. The new figures are that the US, Canada, and South America between them hold six trillion barrels of oil. The US and Canada each hold two trillion, compared to the Mideast/North Africa's 1.2-trillion.
More important, net US oil imports are falling as domestic hydrocarbon production ramps up. You can see the figures at http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/foreign_oil_dependence.cfm US oil imports peaked in 2005, at about 2/3rds of consumption. In 2010, we imported 49% of our oil. Don't be misled by the oft-used figure of US oil production as 5.5-million bbl/day. Compared to use at 19-million bbl/day, that's over 70% imports. As the EIA explains, "Significant gains occur, because crude oil expands in the refining process, liquid fuel is captured in the processing of natural gas, and we have other sources of liquid fuel, including biofuels. These additional supplies totaled 4.2 MMbd in 2010". Also don't be misled by the 11.8 million bbl/day we import. oddly, we export 2.3 million bbl/day, so our total import is 9.4 million bbl/day, and our total production 9.7 million bbl/day.
And our production is going up. There's not just a natural gas boom going on that we all know about, there's also an oil boom. Read a nice NPR story forwarded by reader Luxembourg http://www.npr.org/2011/09/25/140784004/new-boom-reshapes-oil-world-rocks-north-dakota
There's a real possibility that North America will become the hydrocarbon center of the world. already, as the NPR story relates, US production if natural gas is increasing, cutting imports, leaving Russian production free fro Europe, and reducing pressure on prices there.
We realize the environmentalists among our readers are going gasp, choke, ick, throw up The future of the world is supposed to be "clean" solar and wind and so on, though by now we all understand - or should understand - that there's ultimately no such thing as clean energy. N-power comes first, but there's a lot of people who have the attitude: we're all gonna die if we build nukes, so kill me now and get done with it.
The future of the world may be clean energy, but right now, the future is just that - the future. Example: American generating capacity is, very approximately, nice round numbers, 1.1-terawatt (a thousand gigawatts is a terawatt). Renewables account for less than 5% of US power produced. Coal accounts for 50, nuclear for 20%, and natural gas etc for 20%. A solar-power plant - aside from the issues of storage when the sun is not shining or its cloudy - will cost $5000/kilowatt. To convert everything to solar would require $5-trillion of capital. If you're going to do away with oil except for production of chemicals and plastics, you probably are going to need $10-trillion worth of renewable sources - this is just a guess, we'll work out the figure . But again, we're assuming a one-gigawatt solar power plant puts out as many gigawatt hours of power as your good old nuke or coal plant, which is manifestly not the case. So $10-trillion may be a conservative estimate.
So we hope readers can see the shift to this is going to take time.
But what about the Ogala Aquifer? We use Ogala Aquifer as a synonym for potential and actual environmental damage. First, we can wish all we want, we are reliant on oil for at least 30-50 years more. so whatever the actual and potential damage to the environment from using non-renewable its going to happen no matter what.
Back to the Ogala. The pipeline from Canada will cost $7-billion. Now, to be entirely fair yes, there are people who are saying "no pipeline ever". But a lot of others are saying "why not spend a bit extra and route this pipeline through less environmentally sensitive areas?"
That's a good question, and the easy answer is, of course, economics. The people who are to build the pipeline want to make money on it, and different routes add to the expense.
Our proposal is that the government - yes, friends, you got that right, the government - subsidize the pipeline for a different, more environmentally acceptable route.
Before our reader explode, just consider this. Every single day your government takes your money and subsidizes the import of oil into the US that comes from the world's unstable areas, mainly the Mideast, North Africa, and west Africa. This subsidy is not listed under "subsidies" in the budget. Its listed under "Department of Defense"; "Department of State; "CIA", "NSA", "NRO" and so on. When asked why the government spends the money, it says: "energy security". And that's fair enough.
But what it means in practice is that $100-barrel oil you and I are using doesn't cost $100. One estimate we made some years ago when oil was $70, is that it costs double. Yes, folks, for every barrel of oil from an unstable area, say a quarter of our oil, we pay a subsidy of $100, or approximately a quarter-billion dollars a day.
Why are our free-marketers not upset about this subsidy? again, to be fair, Libertarians for one ARE upset about it and they want less militarism. But what about the rest? Is Exxon agitating about its taxes going to subsidize energy imports? Is the GOP agitated? Are the Democrats agitated? (We had to throw that in for parity, but of course you can say the Dems never met a subsidy that they didn't make their BFF instantly).
All we are saying is, give peace a chance - wait, Editor has his half-centuries mixed up. That's so Sixties, and if the US hadn't a draft, the middle- and upper-class Boomers wouldnt have been chanting about giving peace a chance. OK, back to being serious. All we are saying is, why is subsidy for oil imported from unstable areas overseas acceptable and not one for importing oil from Canada?
Isn't it better to spend that money in North America in a way that doesn't involve our being involved in the colossal stupidities of the world's unstable oil producers? Wouldn't it make life so much much simpler if we could just tell all these people "take your oil and stuff it, we have plenty of our own?"
As for environmental damage, how is it okay for us to import oil from countries that are wrecking heck out of their environment? Been to Nigeria and Angola lately?
If the oil and the pipeline people had any sense, they'd be running huge ads in the papers every day: "KL: your pipeline to world peace". And "KL: keeping American dollars working for Americans". And "That half-trillion medical care subsidy just keeps your grandmother nagging you longer. A KL pipeline subsidy keeps your SUV driving further."
We can already see the number of people who'd be chucking their grannies under their SUVs.
But seriously, consider what we just said about subsidies.

0230 GMT October 2, 2011

Luck

Just as individuals can have a stroke of luck, good or bad, that completely changes the game for them, so can nations. And Pakistan's game has changed for the better, though of course it is possible to argue luck had nothing to do with, Pakistan's hard work did.
Two days ago Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan says he was giving up on talks with the Taliban. The problem, he said, is that we do not know who the Taliban's leaders are. People keep turning up from the Taliban Shura in Quetta for talks, and it turns out they are either fake, or assassins. The last Taliban "leader" who arrived for talks murdered a well-respected Afghan politician who has been put in charge of reconciliation with the Taliban.
Mr. Karzai says he will talk directly to Pakistan. The assumption is that Pakistan not only knows who the real leaders are, it controls the Taliban and can deliver on a peace settlement.
Well, the US has been proceeding on its own settlement in Afghanistan, and while there is a general appreciation you can't leave Pakistan out of the settlement, there's neither love nor gratitude for Islamabad/Rawalpindi. As far as US is concerned, it will make no compromises to its own interest just to accommodate or boost Pakistan. So US strategy has been to separate those elements of the Taliban that are amenable to peace from the die-hards. For the latter the US strategy is that to give them wish, and make sure they die hard.
Let us for a moment overlook the sad reality that the US strategic plan from the start has been - well, sad. When you are losing, and the US is losing regardless of what the Pentagon wants to say, your opponents across the table do not negotiate in good faith. Remember the Paris peace talks of a generation ago? Hanoi saw no harm in agreeing to the US terms because (a) it stopped the rather considerable beating North Vietnam was taking in the field and at home, and (b) since the agreements had the US leaving Indochina, the North would simply walk in and take the South. For all that people say Giap was a great general, he was a lousy general, because the deal he had in 1975 he could have gotten years before, and he could have saved a few hundred thousand of his soldiers. No matter. That's history now, and only us oldies find it interesting.
Back to Afghanistan. as we said, let's forget that US strategy to negotiate with the Taliban is not working and will not work. Its a strategy, and Hamid Karazi, who hates the US with a passion because they are always telling him not to be corrupt and calling him an ineffective wimp, has just shot it down with a SAM up Uncle's Sam's wazoo. Because if he has his way, Pakistan will determine the final outcome, not Washington. And ol' Hamid does have a point, the US does not control the Taliban, nor has it beaten it, whereas Pakistan holds the reins. So realistically, better to negotiate with Pakistan.
That puts Washington in a big mess. Either it risks going ahead and rendering itself irrelevant to a final settlement, or it steps aside and takes second place to Pakistan. My, but that does stick in America's craw, and it should, because a Pakistan-directed settlement will see the Taliban take over Afghanistan. Which kind of puts us back to 2001, but hey, lets not be bitter. The Taliban will not, of course, succeed in taking over more than the East and the South, because this time India and Russia are ready to start fighting back the minute the Taliban is admitted to the Afghan councils of power. Last time around, fifteen years ago, Russia and India did not act till it was too late - so rapid was the advance of the Taliban/Pakistan Army, and so were left with a bit of territory in the northwest. Its hard to see how Afghanistan will escape partition.
The interesting thing is just two days ago, Pakistan's number seemed up. The US, we were told to believe, was finally going to crack down on Islamabad/Rawalpindi. Many did not believe it, including us, but at least that's the fantasy the US was trying to create. Today Pakistan's number is not up
Now, in the long run none of this will do Pakistan much good because the Taliban may be Pakistan's child, once it retakes Kabul, it will start acting up. Moreover, it will turn its fighting power on Pakistan, particularly in the NWFP. But that is not going to be any satisfaction to the US.
Is there no way out of this impending train wreck? There is. We've suggested it before: the US should ally with the Taliban. We can hear Washington scoffing. well, the US allied with Germany, and with Japan, and it has a near alliance with Vietnam. It is BFFs with China. So what's wrong with allying with the Taliban? Despite ten years of being killed by Americans, the Taliban has not turned to terror against the US. does this suggest something to the Washingtoons? Like maybe the Taliban do not have anything against America. does America ever think with a little patience it could have negotiated Bin Laden out of Afghanistan? The Taliban "no" was a pretty half-hearted no - "give us the evidence and we'll put him on trial" - and was a clear opening of negotiations. Well, Bush was having nothing of it, and the rest is history.
But US can make its own history for a change instead of reacting all the time. Ally with the Taliban, give them money to rebuild and to hand over what remains of AQ, work from the inside to moderate their medieval policies toward women. Before anyone says it cant be done. reality check. In the villages of Pakistan, in Yemen, in Saudi Arabia, and in lots of other places, the social polices are medieval. Doesnt stop the US from working with those countries.

0230 GMT October 1, 2011

UK: Dangerous shortage of Prozac This is what happens when people, in this case a British judge, don't get their medicines in timely fashion. A Palestine preacher was banned from entering UK because he was accused of inciting anti-Semitic violence. He strolled in for meetings and functions, was not detected at the airport because the exclusion order went to the wrong terminal. A UK court has ruled that while the Government had the power to ban the fellow (thank you, oh great and worthy judge for this concession) from entering UK, his arrest was wrongful and he can sue the Government for the 21 days of his detention.
Why was his arrest unlawful? Because he he wasn't told till 48 hours or so had passed why he had been arrested. The gentleman plans a suit in which he will argue that he wasn't told of the charges in his own language, and since he planned to leave the UK anyway, he should not have been arrested.
A British government spokesperson, in the typical understated Brit way, thought it "extraordinary" that a person who was in the country illegally should have the right to sue the Government
Meanwhile, people, in case you are tempted to bang your head against a stone wall for the wholly gratuitous statement some human rights person made after the announcement that Anwar al-Awlaki had been whacked, please case and desist. In the American case it was a private individual saying something stupid. Constitutional right and all that, and No Taxpayer Money Was Involved. In UK, a judge has truly proved that an ass is the law.
Awalki What the human rights person said was that the President had presented no evidence against the US-born cleric who was AQ in the Arabian Peninsula's operations chief, and he didn't think the Prez should have the power to order an American citizen killed without a trial. Fair enough, right to free speech and all that.
The US government position is that the killing was legal because it was an act of war.
While we 100% support the US Government's position to kill this scumbag extraordinaire, and we are quite ready to verbally bash this human rights person, for the US government to claim this was an act of war is to make a very weak claim. Simple: no declaration of war by the constitutional authority, the US Congress, has been made. Now has Congress - as far as we know, and please correct us if we are wrong - authorized the President to sign execution orders as he wills.
But lets get back to the human rights angle. The man happened to be born in America, but took up arms against America and what is more, went on the media regularly to boast, brag, and gas about his actions, and to recruit followers. There is morality and there is the law. As an enemy of the US, no matter where the accident of his birth, he is a legitimate target. There was no practical way to get him except by UAV strike. Is it the human rights person's position that the US should have spent a hundred million dollars organizing an expedition to capture this fugitive from justice, risked the lives of dozens of Americans, and gone to extraordinary lengths to capture him alive for trial back in the US?
Supposing you have a US citizen gunman who is organizing and directing people to kill Americans. The police go after him. Figuring that taking him alive would be too costly, a police sniper kills him. Has he been illegally executed? Should the police have let him direct murder and mayhem because its infeasible to capture him alive?Hardly. We as citizens have no right to demand of the police that they must risk their lives to take him alive for trial. And we don't. So why this sudden concern for al-Alawki's rights?
That said, lets go to the other side of the table A 26-year old American, who said he wanted to kill Americans so bad he couldn't stop himself, is arrested for a plot to bomb the Pentagon. Straightforward, no?
Well, not exactly. This man talked about wanting to kill Americans, so the government contacted him undercover, pretending to be a terrorist group (Editor can hear some of his readers saying "But the government IS a terrorist group", but we can discuss that another time). Government asks him to rig seven cell phones to set off bombs designed to kill American soldiers. He rigs the phones. Government comes back and says 3 American soldiers have been killed. The man has an orgasm on the spot he is so excited. Buoyed by success, the man says he has a plan to bomb the Pentagon using a remote control scale model aircraft. Not a problem, says the government still pretending to be terrorists. They buy fake explosives. They deliver weapons he asks for because he wants to do an attack on Capitol Hill. Then they bust him.
To us this is an "oh oh" moment. Is it illegal to say you hate America and want to kill American soldiers? We don't know, we're asking. If it is illegal, arrest the man for that crime without these shenanigans about having him rig cell phones and so on. If it is not illegal, then sorry about that, you have to wait till he does something that is illegal. There is the law, and there is morality. May be the government has not broken the law. But this case stinks - morally.

0230 GMT September 30, 2011

What Rare Earth Crisis? Remember last year the world was talking about a rare earth crisis because China, which controls almost all production, had decided to reduce exports? The pretext was China needed the stuff for itself, which has to be some kind of violation of GATT, but anyway, what do the Chinese care about these agreements. Doom and disaster were forecast by all, including ourselves.
Our angle was different, of course, because we felt the price increases would forces the US to develop/redevelop its own mines which had been shut down for (a) environmental reasons, and (b) because the Chinese were beating the pants off the Americans pricewise. So we hopefully forecast a US return to greatness in rare earths, with a corresponding punch to the Chinese nose,
Turns out that well before US mines can start/restart production, prices have dropped so precipitously that the Bloomberg Rare Earth Index of 17 companies has fallen by 43% in the last 3-months alone, and is set to fall further, The reason is that big users like Toyota and GE simply found substitutes, or learned to use less material. For example, both companies are now making induction motors, which don't use rare earths.
So yeah for the Free Market (much waving of flags and eating of hot dogs), and maybe a second yeah if the free market could figure out how to make jobs.
Pakistan, the Haqqanis, and the US: How to double-double deal Pakistan is right now telling the US: don't mind the sound and the fury. We have to show our public we are standing up to you. Not to worry, we will take care of the Haqqanis. So that's the first double deal, a trick played on the Pakistani public, to save the Government's and Army's skin from citizens already highly wroth at what they see is Pakistan's kow-towing to the US. Of course, Pakistan is not really kow-towing: it has not sacrificed any key national security objective while at the same time getting fat aid packages from Washington, and avoiding cripppling sanctions. We think the Pakistanis have played a very weak hand very well indeed.
Now will come the second double deal: Pakistan will take a few token steps, with great private fanfare, to "rein" in the Haqqanis. "Please be reasonable," Pakistani diplomats will "beg" the US. "You're leaving Afghanistan, don't we have a right to secure our interests in our own neighborhood? We can't dismantle the Haqqani network and shoot ourselves in the head." The generals will say: "Please be reasonable. The Haqqanis have 20,000 trained fighters. No way we can fight them. Of course, another $10-billion of weapons may give us the capability...but we'll still need an iron-clad security guarantee against India because we'll have to shift even more troops from the East..." Etc etc.
The result will be exactly the same result as with the other insurgent groups Pakistan has "fought". What is that result? You have to do some yoga for a proper understanding. First, center yourself...Next, visualize a great big zero...readers will get the point.

0230 GMT September 29, 2011

Personally, we're a little bit curious as to how people in Washington think they know better than the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff regarding Pakistan. We refer, of course, to yesterday's Washington Post article in which the usual anonymous source claim that the Admiral has overstated the links between Pakistan and the Haqqanis. Are we missing something, or does the Chairman JCS not have greater access to multiple sources of intelligence than anyone else? Hello, people, doesn't the "Joint" mean something?
But we are not at all curious about why those anonymous sources cozied up to WashPo. First, Admiral Mullen's comments threaten to put America's entire Pakistan policy for the last 10 years into the crapper, and thus vulnerable to the first person who goes by holding his nose and who decides to pull the flush. There are people deeply invested in this policy. Second, aside from losing their importance, there is the possibility of Congressional hearings. Yes, the US Congress has a big sign on its backside saying "I am a doormat" when it concerns national security policy. But you never know with Congress. They're not a particularly rational or stable bunch of people. Some Congressperson that cant be bought off may just decide he's been lied to enough about Pakistan and start raising a stink.
We can see certain people rolling their eyes and saying "There Ravi goes again. What alternative do we have except to continue working with Pakistan? Since there is none, Admiral Mullen is not being helpful."
Well, Actually Orbat.com has many times suggested an alternative, which is get out of Pakistan, and get out of Afghanistan. The issue is supposed to be the battered remains of AQ. US is clearly showing it is prepared to deal with AQ over the world without putting in massive ground presences. The same applies to AQ in Pakistan/Afghanistan.
But once you say (a) we need Pakistan as a transit point for our logistics; and (b) okay, we may not get the level of cooperation we want from Pakistan, but its better than the alternative, and once you stake these points as keys to your national survival, well then, of course we have to continue sucking up to Pakistan even as they use us as their national crapper.
So we aren't surprised that the walk-back on Pakistan has already begun. The WashPo anonymous sources of course add insult to injury by saying no one is interested in a walk-back, while that is precisely what these people are doing. You see, we don't expect anything better of our government and national security establishment. Our Pakistan policy is corrupt, built on lies, and a failure. No country would keep at it with such a failed policy for ten years. No country that is, except the US of A, where self-respect and dignity have become alien words. "What's that you say? Self-respect? Dignity? Sorry, we don't speak English here."
Libya Short explanation: the offensives at Sirte and Bani Walid are stalled despite NATO bombing and despite the availability of armor and artillery. The loyalists are convinced they are going to be killed if they surrender, and let's call a spade a digging implement: they are going to be killed, because there's too much bad blood. When they ruled, the loyalists killed people, particularly after the uprising began. The government forces are not going to be giving out blue blankies and bunny slippers when they take Sirte and Bani Walid, as they will eventually.
Too bad, but that's the breaks. There's a reason the Bible says "Do unto others". Gaddaffi was a killer, as if we needed to be reminded by the discovery of mass graves containing 1200 prisoners he ordered executed years ago at a jail. There are people who backed him and gained. Now its come their turn to die, and sorry about that. That's the way the world turns and the cookie crumbles, or whatever.
By the way, we just love it when the Human Rights people rush into a situation like Libya saying "and the rebels too are committing atrocities and something has to be done about it". Easy for you to say, Chicken Man. Wasn't your family that was beaten, jailed, raped, evicted, killed. When the US defeated Germany and Japan, the revenge it took was absolute. It was total war, and no one spent a moment worrying about what was happening to civilians. You want to read a horror story, read about the strategic bombing campaign against Japan. The A-bombs were an act of mercy. If the war had gone on, the US was prepared to kill every last Japanese man, woman, child, cow and goat.
And you know what? Looking at it 65 years after the war began, as far as we're concerned, that's precisely the way it should have been.

0230 GMT September 28, 2011

Do you have to flunk an IQ test to become a journalist today? Apparently you do, if this headline from Reuters is an indication: "Pakistan pushes back against US, woos China". http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/27/us-pakistan-china-usa-idUSTRE78Q1IP20110927 The article specifically links the Pakistan upset with the US's anger over the Haqqanis with Pakistan wooing China. Except if the persons who wrote that story knew just a tiny bit of history, they would see there's no connection.
Pakistan and China have been friends and allies of some sort for over 45 years. Praising a visiting Chinese minister is not wooing China, its the standard diplomatic bilge. The visit of that minister has not come about because the US blasted Pakistan over the Haqqanis. Diplomatic visits are usually organized months in advance. China and Pakistan have lots of them.
By the way, notice which minister is in Pakistan for talks. Its the public security minister. Does this ring any bells for the Reuters journos? Apparently not. This person is in Pakistan to tell the Pakistanis China wants them to do more to prevent Islamists from entering Xinjiang. There aren't a lot, as far as we know its just dozens, if only because the terrain is truly wretched, and because the Chinese have seriously beefed up their border security with Pakistan since the start of the Afghan war. But for a country that likes to have locked down borders, even a few dozen infiltrators a year arrested in Xinjiang is enough to get the Chinese very upset. The talks may also cover the safety of the several thousand Chinese working in Pakistan Kashmir - we don't know enough about the Chinese internal setup to make a definitive statement, nor have we gotten anything back on enquiries we made regarding this visit. But these workers are a target for Islamist groups. Yet another thing the minister may be discussing is what Pakistan can do to keep Chinese workers in Afghanistan safe.
So there's no wooing going on here.
Nor is there any question of Pakistan using China as a counterweight to the US. To think otherwise is to insult the intelligence of the Chinese. Beijing very carefully calibrates its support of Pakistan to satisfy - can you believe this, people - Chinese interests. From 1965 itself the Chinese have been quite aware Pakistan's is an alliance of opportunism, but the Chinese, unlike the Americans, don't want to be loved. So they don't take it badly when the Pakistani Prime Minister gets all smarmy about "all weather friends". They laugh quietly into their white hankies. The smarm is not going to get the Pakistanis one more dollar in aid than the Chinese are already prepared to give - sorry, we didn't realize we said "dollar". Old habits die hard. We meant Yuan. Its China that's sitting on $3-trillion plus of foreign exchange reserves, and its China to whom our Treasury secretary and the Euro finance ministers are groveling, begging for handouts to save western capitalism from its excesses. What fun the Chinese must be having.
So how did this story develop, ""Pakistan pushes back against US, woos China"? well, Reuters got an exclusive with the Pakistan Prime Minister, and he unloaded his complaints about the US, plus his petty little threats. Quote from Reuters: "The negative messaging, naturally, that is disturbing my people," Gilani said...."If there is messaging that is not appropriate to our friendship, then naturally it us extremely difficult to convince my public. Therefore they should be sending positive messages." Seperately the PM made kissy-faces with his Chinese visitor. Which he would have done had the US not existed.
Bafflingly, the story recognizes China and Pakistan are long-standing allies because of India. It makes a mistake in thinking they are allies because the Chinese see a need to offset US influence. The US abandoned Pakistan in 1965. By the time it returned in 1980, the Pakistan-China alliance was cemented. So it had nothing to do with the US. Then the US abandoned Pakistan in 1990. China had no need to counter the US. Then we come to 2001. What exactly has China done to counter US influence since then, particularly as China knows perfectly well that the US is getting ready to abandon Pakistan - once again? In fact, Chinese interests in Afghanistan are aligned with those of the US, because Beijing doesn't want a virulently fanatical Islamic state on its borders.
So this story came about because of laziness. The Reuters writers decided, as do mainstream journos everywhere, that they would create a story linking two unconnected events. By doing so they destroy their credibility because no one who matters is taken in by this faked narrative.
Back to the Pakistani PM again. There are those fatal words again: the messaging is inappropriate for the US-Pakistan "friendship". At this point we want to send an American teddy bear to the Pakistani Prime Minister, because obviously he had a sad childhood bereft of love, leaving him with a need for "friendship". Whatever gave this man the extraordinary idea the US and Pakistan are friends? Has the US not constantly made clear it tolerates Pakistan because it feels it has no option? Do friends send insurgents into Afghanistan to kill Americans? Has the US not said enough times "If we could, we'd clobber you to death?" Does Mr. Gilani actually believe Americans like Pakistan? If so, he's forgotten to tell his public, because there is no country more anti-American than Pakistan. The loathing on both sides is mutual, and intense.
The Pakistan military and political elite are the only ones who want to be "friends" with the US - and only because they want American money. But they don't want it so badly that they will stop shafting America. Its the ultimate revenge of the Brown Man. Get America to pay billions of dollars a year so that Pakistan can go and kill more Americans. This apparently makes some kind of sense to the clowns in Washington. Hey, don't look at Editor: he didn't vote for Bush or for Obama. Fortunately he cant vote - look at the choices for 2012, after all.
In a perverse kind of way, you have to admire the Pakistanis for making a fool of Uncle Sam so thoroughly, again and again, for ten years. But then you have to ask yourself: "Is it the Pakistanis are so clever or that we are so stupid?"

0230 GMT September 27, 2011

Afghan Army situation worse than Orbat.com has said An article in Wired, based on an interview with US LTG Caldwell, says two (count 'em, two) Afghan battalions of 180 can fight independently. We had said one, so obviously we're behind the curve. So how is this worse than what Orbat.com said? isn't it - wow! - 100% better than what we said? (Titter).
Well, we though the lone battalion could fight on its own. General Caldwell says the two battalions need complete US support for the medical, logistical, and maintenance functions. Then he calmly says the US has not trained the Afghans for these functions. So, in effect, not ONE Afghan battalion can fight on its own.
Now, who has heard of an 180 battalion army (we are assuming this includes the combat support and combat service support battalions) without logistical support? Till this point, no one had heard of such an army. But now you have, and its all brought to you by those warfighting geniuses in the US military and the Pentagon.
If every it needed to be made clear, Wired has done so: the US training effort in Afghanistan is probably the most incompetent thing the US military has done in living memory.
But is anyone could to be held accountable? Obviously not, people.
General Caldwell also says that drug addicts with active habits are not barred from joining. Indeed, we hear the majority of Afghan military and police are drug addicts. Isn't there a US law that forbids handing money to drug addicts? We're just asking, we don't know. Oh wait - in the interests of "national security" any US law can be waived.
Then the Afghan Army has no better than a first grade capability in reading - assuming the 2010 plan to bring up an army where 80% cannot read at kindergarten level to an army that reads at first grade level has worked. and right now we'd be very foolish if we assumed anything to do with the Afghan Army has worked.
A reader once asked us "You criticize the US for the way it has trained the Afghan Army. What would YOU do?"
Simple. We'd report back to head office the Afghan people are not prepared to fight for their country, and we need to go home. End of the discussion. But you can't expect US leaders, political or military, to say this. It would require a culture of honesty. How un-American can one get.
The $16 muffins that were not Truthfully, we're disappointed that the recent report of $16 muffins for a government function in Washington is not correct. Its $16 per person for the breakfast, everything included included gratuity and tax.
Well, you may ask, why are you disappointed? Doesn't Editor support the goodness of government, and isn't he constantly raving about the efficiency of government, at least as far as his life goes?
True. But it's so much fun to bash large organizations and that includes the government.
Another example of efficient government Editor had not been filing yearly property returns for our parent company, General Data. That's because (a) we have no property, this being a virtual company; and (b) we don't have the $300/year required to tell the State of Maryland we have no property. That sum is 25% of our annual profit.
So General Data was declared "Not in good standing" and then "forfeited."
So Editor needed the company in good standing again. He rang the number given by Maryland State. A lady answered. She spoke less than fifty words in total. Pay $1200 for four missing years and return to good standing. We said we didn't have the money, could we pay $150 and re-register the company? She said yes. We paid the expedited fee. Despite an error we made in the form, the company was reregistered in five business days.
That's efficiency.

0230 GMT September 26, 2011

Pakistan and the ISI

Let us first make clear this is not a Pakistan-bashing entry. We have said repeatedly, endlessly, that Pakistan has the right to determine how best to meet its security needs. If that includes support of what the rest of the world calls terror groups, as far as we are concerned, that's fine too, as long as the terror is directed toward military targets. Please to remember one man's terror group is another's man's freedom fighters.
Had the modern media been around in 1776, you can be absolutely sure the government of George III would have been screaming about American terror groups, whereas to Americans what they did in that year was the most glorious part of their history.
But we have also said that while Pakistan must determine how best to advance its national security interests, and the US needs to stop making it into a moral issue, the US also has the right to determine its national security interests. Our quarrel with the US has been it has substituted sloganeering for action, and this goes to show how far the US has fallen in terms of world power.
Today we'd like to make another point. This is: the narrative as shaped by the press is defective and lazy, and because of this Americans have not been able to get a clear idea of the realities. Take this statement from Reuters: "Although Pakistan officially abandoned support for the Taliban after the September 11 attacks on the United States in 2001 and allied itself with Washington's "war on terrorism," analysts say elements of the ISI refused to make the doctrinal shift. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/25/us-pakistan-usa-army-idUSTRE78O0PG20110925
How does the press know this to be true? Has it investigated? has it analyzed? No it has not. The press treats Afghanistan-Pakistan as another case of he said/she said, simply repeating the positions of each side in a dispute, and feels it has done its duty.
We hate to put everything in capitals, because that's rude. But we are sick and tired of hearing this constant, mindless stupidity repeated and repeated and repeated, so that it has been "The Truth". Pakistan HAS NEVER OFFICIALLY ABANDONED THE TALIBAN. THERE ARE NO ELEMENTS OF THE ISI THAT FAILED TO MAKE A DOCTRINAL SHIFT.
Pakistan has SAID that it is America's reliable ally in the GWOT. Any responsible news person knows not to take people's words at face value. But not the American media in this case. It is not even clear to us that the Pakistanis privately or publically have EVER even said they have abandoned the Taliban.
American journalists are either fools, or poltroons, or racists to believe "elements of the ISI refused to make the doctrinal shift". The racism comes in because the journos look at Pakistan, see a bunch of brown people, and say, of course you can have such a thing as an intelligence agency that does as it pleases. Its a third world country. Would they accept this narrative if it was the US or UK that we were talking about?
What does the press think would happen if the CIA decided to run its own policy despite orders to the contrary? Can it believe for a moment that CIA officers concerned would not be arrested, put on trial, and sentenced to lengthy terms of imprisonment?
So why do they refuse to see the Pakistan Army is highly disciplined? If the ISI - which is primarily an army organization, it is NOT an independent agency like the CIA - is doing X, Y, or Z, it is doing it not despite orders, but because it has orders. Do the press really think a Pakistani brigadier general, or colonel, or major, or captain persisting in disobeying orders from the Army command is going to get away with such insubordination? We are going to say something that is going to shock our American readers: it is easier to be insubordinate in the US Army than in the Pakistan Army. If people don't understand that, then they know nothing about the Pakistan Army.
Surely there is the occasional officer who is running his own scam in the hopes of not being found out. But he is risking everything if he is found out.
Now let's step back a moment. Is there a single American media person who believes that terror against India is anything else except a vital tool in the Pakistan military arsenal?
It seems to us Americans who say "well yes, the Pakistanis are invested in terror against India but we're different" are breathtakingly arrogant and clueless. What is the that makes the US so great that all it needs to do is issue a fiat from Washington through its viceroy in Pakistan and the Pakistanis are going to snap to comply?
We beg American journalists: please don't make yourself laughing stocks by making statements such as Pakistan officially renounced the Taliban.
Now, obviously things have come to a head between the two countries. That they have not earlier is because American general, diplomats, congressperson, mediapersons, and the Administration are craven intellectually dishonest, and responsible for the deaths of a great many American soldiers Afghanistan by - for 10 years - acting as if America can control Pakistan. In normal times, there would be congressional inquiries and media investigations into how this state of affairs has been allowed to continue for so long.
Be that as it may. America says it has drawn a line in the sand and Pakistan has to give up the Haqqanis or else. Please excuse will we Roll On The Floor And Die Laughing Of A Busted Gut. How many such directives has the US issued? And has Pakistan actually disavowed ANY of its terror groups, even the ones that have killed Pakistanis and Pakistani soldiers? The answer is no.
The same thing will happen with the Haqqanis. Pakistan will make noises. Haqqanis may even pretend to "shift to Afghanistan". Operations against the US will continue. Pakistan will say "these are renegades." It will add insult to injury by saying "we need another $10-billion of arms to fight the Haqqanis". Then it will say "You see, we don't have the intelligence you do. Give us the intelligence and we we will arrest them". Still not tired of rubbing American faces in Pakistani poop, the Pakistanis will say "oh, that last operation? That's a splinter branch of the Haqqanis and we're doing our best to capture them".
How do we know this? Because Pakistan has done exactly the same thing for ten years.
Now look, if President Obama, the speakers of the House and Senate, General Petraeus, Ambassador Ryan Crocker, Mr. Leon Panetta, the editors of the New York Times and the Washington Post and so on get some secret thrill from having the Pakistani do Number Two all over them,and they must, because they and their predecessors have played this game again and again for 10 years, we have one request: can you fellows indulge your perversions on your private time and leave America out of it?
But far from leaving America out of it, our great and wonderful leaders are preparing to open yet another innings in this futile 10-year game.

0230 GMT September 25, 2011

Be bye Greece A default of 50% has been accepted as inevitable for Greece's debt of $500-billion, 140% of GDP. So you'd think no more money would be given to Greece. Ha ha. Shows how naive people are if you believe that. IMF will continue funding Greece. Why?
Because it buys six weeks for the Euros to bolster their banks against default.
Don't worry if you're going "Huh?". This world finance stuff is not for simple people like you and me. You have to be a super-genius to understand all this. Those of us from Iowa are not super-geniuses. (Thank heaven.)
To learn how the Euros plan to prevent the Greek default from infecting other countries, read http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8786945/1.75-trillion-deal-to-save-the-euro.html
Libya NTC forces entered Sirte from the west and so far are managing to hang on to their advances. Of course, with the NTC crowd you never know when they will decide they need a break ands retreat. NATO bombing is supporting the attack, as also NTC artillery and armor.
French Jewish Defense League members with military experience, numbering 55, are making a short visit to illegal Jewish settlements in the West Bank, to help protect the settlements. The story is from al Jazeera.
We thought about this for a moment, and don't see what's wrong with foreign Jews supporting their Israeli brethren. after all Muslims claim the right to go to support Muslim fighters anywhere in the world.
Of course, the settlements are illegal but that's another issue altogether, we feel.
A story to make anyone's day Call us softhearted but we love these love stories. A small-town Brazilian woman contracts with killer to do in her rival for the man she is living with. The killer discovers the victim is a childhood friend. But he wants the money, about $500. So he douses the childhood friend in ketchup (two bottles), takes a foto, claims the fee. All well and good.
Then the lady who placed the contracts sees the killer and alleged victim kissy-facing in the market. She is mortified and angry. Also so far so good.
This is the best part: the lady complains to the police that the contract killer has stolen her money.
Police sit there scratching their heads, then decide to arrest all three. The lady for making threats, and the alleged killer and his new girlfriend for extortion. So the alleged killer skips town.
Meanwhile, the lady is the subject of jeers and sneers in the town for being taken in by a patently fake foto.
No word yet on if the lady's boyfriend is sleeping at home these days.
You have to love the Latins: hot tempered as all heck. Anything fair in love and war. Doubtless someone in Hollywood is already penning a script.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/sep/23/ketchup-killing-sauce-fun-brazil

0230 GMT September 24, 2011

And so it begins Palestine asked the UN for recognition as a state, despite US's scrambling like a clutch of crazed squirrels. That Palestine could do as it wants shows how little influence the US has on this matter.
Next, US and Israeli threaten to cut aid to the Palestine Authority if the PA doesn't play ball.
That Israel acts thus is entirely understandable, because a Palestine state could mark the beginning of the end for Israel. No one will condemn Israel's cutting off aid or even find it worthy of comment.
But the US now...lets see how this plays: "You Palestinians are asking for the right of self-determination that we most recently backed in Libya and are backing in Syria, Iran, and North Korea. So as punishment we will cut off our aid to you."
Americans can say all they want that's misrepresenting their position. But that's the way the world will see it. And other states will step in to make up that money, perhaps even the Chinese (though normally the Chinese come in only for economic gains). The Euros, who hate the US on this issue, are prime candidates to make up for the deficit, which will then further weaken the US's influence in Palestine.
By the way, we mentioned the other day that 90% of Chinese support a Palestine state. Nine percent do not. That was the highest approval in the whole world. irony alert: here you have a people backing to hilt self-determination for Palestine, and they don't want to give the same right to Taiwan, Tibet, and Sinkiang.
The Chinese say all those are part of China. That's not so much different from hard-line Israelis who say Palestine is theirs by right of rule 2000 years ago. But then, it wasn't so long ago that the Russians, who built one of the biggest empires of all time and denied everyone their rights to self-determination, trumpeted themselves as champions of self-determination for people "oppressed" by the west.
Pakistan We need to make clear we're commenting on Pakistan only because its expected. That its taken the US ten years to openly accuse Pakistan of terrorist attacks against US targets shows only how craven the US has become, how little its so-called "sole superpower" status counts, and how completely bankrupt US policy in Afghanistan is.
That right after accusing Pakistan the US then issues another statement (Pentagon) saying cooperation will continue, would normally boggle the mind. The US has laws that require it to isolate and punish terrorist states, but here the US calls a terrorist state that has been killing Americans for 10 years an "ally". But that the US is waiving its own laws (which the President is permitted in the national interest) is so typical of the Alice In Wonderland environment in which America functions today that it merits no comment.
Meanwhile, its probably not off the mark to say that of the 1700 US dead and thousands grievously wounded in Afghanistan, i.e., over 50%, have become casualties directly because of Pakistan.
You'd think the American people would rise up against their government, demand impeachments of the administration and congress.
But this is not happening, and will not happen, because your typical American simply does not care that fellow Americans are being killed by a state we call an ally. when the citizens become indifferent and apathetic, government gets away with doing anything it wants.
Meanwhile, if the US government thinks it can get Pakistan to turn against the Haqqani network, which of all Taliban and Pakistan insurgent "formations" is the most closely an extension of the Pakistan Army, then the US Government also must believe the moon is made of green cheese, and that Lucy will not move the football after inviting Charlie Brown to kick it. We have repeatedly said: in pursuit of its legitimate national security interests, Pakistan created and operates the Taliban. The Taliban and other terror groups, especially those directed against India, are a core Pakistan security interest, as important as its nuclear weapons. That Washington should even in its dreams think it can get Pakistan to turn against the Taliban shows that Washington is psychotic.
This may come as a big surprise to US decision makers: it is not for Pakistan to destroy its national security interests, especially when all the US has as a weapon is verbal diarrhea. if US and Pakistani interests are opposed, it is for the US to do something about it instead of trying to do talk the Pakistanis to death. But of course the US will only talk: its decline is so extreme it cannot do anything else.

0230 GMT September 23, 2011

0600 GMT

Faster than light CERN scientists they have confidence in their results: light should have taken 2.4-milliseconds to cover 730+ km distance. But neutrinos fired 16.000 times (phew!) covered the distance in 60 nanosecond faster than they should have.
Standard theory (Einstein) says as matter accelerates, its mass increases. Which means you need more energy to keep accelerating. As you get close to the speed of limit, the energy required goes to infinity. Therefore you can never reach light speed.
As we understand it, according to John Stewart Bell's Theorem some quantum effects can travel faster than the speed of light. Two particles that are quantum entangled respond to each other's changes in direction though they may be at opposite ends of the universe. Bell's Theorem has not been conclusively proved.
Another thing we have been told is that massless particles, if they exist, could travel faster than light. Last we were told, no such particles have been detected. In any case, massless particles are not much use if you want to visit Centurus and get back before your wife notices you haven't been around the last 8.5-years. (This assumes your wife does not find you terribly amusing and so will take a while to realize you aren't in the house.)
We've been further told that even if something can go faster than light, no information can be conveyed except at sublight speeds. That's no good, either.
And there's nothing infinite about the energy used by CERN to speed its neutrinos on their way: CERN uses 300-megawatts maximum for everything. Now, a bunch of neutrinos doesn't weigh much a neutrino is nearly massless. The point is, it isn't absolutely massless.
The upper bound for a neutrino is supposed to be 2 electron volts, and we do apologize, but at this of the night the old brain doesn't work well enough to convert this into grams. But it becomes possible to conceive of the entire US electricity generating capacity - 1 terawatt - blasting off enough neutrinos to send a very, very short message to the the stars ("Pls b my BFF").
We accept we're being off the wall here, because if our neutrino packet hits a couple of atoms enroute (and space is far from empty) presumably it will lack the energy to barrel through and will get knocked off course. No matter, someone will work it out.
There's also the question of if you really want to send a message anywhere and draw attention to yourself. Who knows who/what such a message draws to earth. In Intergalactic space no one can hear you scream and all that.
But of course, we are getting ahead of ourselves. Nonetheless, if these results hold up, well, we just kiss 100 years of physics goodbye. Imagine how people felt when Galileo proved "but still, it moves". Same thing. But the world survived Galileo, and the world will survive the CERN scientists.

Israel/Palestine

For the second time this week we wrote a brilliant essay on the coming disaster in US foreign policy when US vetoes Palestine's bid for nationhood. We went back to the Exodus from Egypt, the destruction of the Temple in AD 70, the mini-Holocausts that the Jewish people periodically endured till the really big one, the fate of the Indian Nations, the expansion of the US, the US's drive against colonialism, how the US became a colonial power despite its ideals, the Declaration of Independence, World War II, the UN Charter, decolonization, the rise of Arab despots, and so on and so forth, till we reached a point we were very impressed by our own erudition.
So why not share that with readers? Well, because Israel-Palestine is a zero sum game. There is no compromise possible. If the Israelis stop colonizing Palestine and keeping its people in a ghetto, it will mean the end of Israel. if the Palestinians are to have their right to self-determination, it will also mean the end of Israel. In other words, if Israel behaves decently, it destroys itself.
One day this will come to an end because you can't have some hundreds of millions of Arabs who have grown accustomed to the benefits of self-determination on the one hand, and an Israel backed by the US that denies a people their rights of self-determination on the other. It will also come to an end as the US continues to decline and China continues to rise because the big boy on the block will be pro-Palestine, not pro-Israeli, for the simple reason China knows 6-billion people of color are ultimately more important than one billion people not-of-color.
In the meanwhile, this is not a productive discussion to have. Because any compromise made by the Israelis that will satisfy the Palestinians will mean the end of Israel, Israel cannot compromise. Because pro-Israelis hold such out-of-proportion power in the US, a US acting in its own interests rather than Israel's is inconceivable, and it doesn't matter what price the US has to pay. Nor are the Palestinians about to give up.
Since there is no solution, there's nothing sensible we can suggest. US is headed for a train wreck. Don't think for a moment the people in Washington don't realize this. They know their allies among the Euros have deserted them, and its the US against the rest of the world. Knowing it and doing something about it are two different things. A symptom of national decline is when a country can no longer control events, when it is controlled by events. That's what happening to the US on the question of Palestinian statehood.

0230 GMT September 22, 2011

The Pakistan Fights Terror Ad Reader David Barta forwarded an ad made by the Pakistan government http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmDMO_iOOSs which claims that no country has done more, or suffered more, in the war against terror. It even claims that the nation of 180-million is fighting for the seven billion people of the world.
Agreed, the ad is a joke. The casualties Pakistan has suffered in the terror war are blowback caused by the very same terror groups Pakistan has created, nurtured, trained, equipped, officered etc.
But we are not going to blame the Pakistanis for putting out such an ad, which features an American voiceover. The Pakistanis have become masters of the Big Lie, but they didn't learn this technique from aliens. They learned it from the Americans, who for decades have been the unquestioned global masters of propaganda.
An example of American propaganda that has rebounded on America is it's habit of saying it will not extradite XYZ because he will not get a fair trial. Niger - yes, that bastion of parliamentary democracy and a meticulously fair criminal justice system (Not) says it will not extradite the soccer playing son of Col. Gaddaffi because he won't get a fair trial. ROFLTOGB. (Rolling on The Floor Laughing Till Our Guts Bust.)
Another example: the pale Wikileaker (does he have some fatal disease that makes him look the way he does or is it he never steps out from under his rock?) has used the same technique. He claims he should not be extradited to Sweden because he won't get a fair trial on charges that he raped two women. Lets go through slowly. He. Will. Not. Get. A. Fair. Trial. In. Sweden.
If you believe the Swedish criminal justice system is controlled by the Americans, then you must also believe that Queen Elizabeth II is an agent of 16th Century Venetian bankers. (Lyndon LaRouche, whom BTW Editor met decades ago in India and who made his case in calm, reasonable, and logical terms - once you accepted the bit about Queen Elizabeth. Nonetheless, he seemed a very nice person.
(And his wife was careful to avoid the nonsense without publically contradicting him, which was quite a feat. Editor spent his time talking to her with ulterior motives - you know, the Saturday thing. Alas, she was unconvinced she should leave Lyndon alone for a night. You might be tempted to think that Mrs. R IV also chatting to her may have had something to do with her hesitation, but you wouldn't be right. Editor had introduced Mrs. R IV as his daughter.
(Before you snicker, the visa counsel at the British Embassy in Washington once accused Editor of seeking a visa for his daughter and grandchild (Mrs R IV and the Editor's youngest) because Editor planned to get her married off in England to a British citizen. The Editor's argument that given the way Indians are treated in the UK, why would Indian-origin residents of America want to leave America to settle in the UK cut no ice. Well, Editor got his family the visas anyway, what are contacts for, but Mrs. R was so mad she finally applied for American citizenship, something she had been strenuously resisting for ten years despite the Editor's constant urging. Why should a wife get mad because she's taken for her husband's daughter? Isn't that a compliment? As far as Mrs. R was concerned, that wasn't the issue. "What the dash-dash-dash-dash does the visa counsel think he is that I need my dad to get me married off, I can dash-dash-dash-dash have any man I want to marry, thank you so much". Women. Loveable, but strange people.)
But the thing is, say something enough times, and people start believing it. sure this technique must go back millennia. Sure the communists used it all the time. But with the communists, there was a coercive threat behind the threat - believe it or you've got a one-way ticket to the gulag. America excels in not applying coercion or crudity. Its specialty is the "Come, as reasonable people we can agree" line. Such as "Come, as reasonable people we can agree Iraq is a threat to the world."
Americans are master lobbyists. If the Pakistanis have hired an American lobbying firm to produce this ad that verges on the obscene, then they are only paying tribute to the masters. Imitation being the sincerest form of flattery and all that.
Who are these small businesses that will create jobs if only Government will get out of the way? Dana Milbank, a Washington Post columnist makes the point that three of four small businesses in America has only one employee. They're not likely to be hiring anyone no matter how far Washington gets out of the way. (September 21, 2011.) Interesting point.
America, America So last year there was the usual post-game riot at the University of Maryland College Park, and the Prince George's County police, as is usually their wont, beat up a student who was simply standing in the street. Nothing the least racial: the student was white, so were the police. If you know Prince George's County, you know about their police. This is just business as usual.
Also business as usual, the student was charged with attacking a police horse. American police are famous for first beating you up, then charging you with disorderly conduct or resisting arrest. The difference in this case was that someone was filming the whole thing.
So, to give credit where it is due, when the evidence was presented to the Prince George's County police, after the wheels of justice grinding slowly but grinding slowly and all that, the two police officers responsible have been indicted.
So far, just another pointless and boring story about Life in America. But here's our point. The lawyer for one of the officers actually made a statement saying the case wasn't about a innocent student getting beaten up. It was about the violence and savagery of post-game riots at UM College Park.
We're still scratching our heads trying to figure this out. The policeman in question needs a new lawyer, we think.
More America, America at one of our Washington Metro area colleges, a group of lady students who share an on-campus residential suite are listening to music play7ed by an I-Pod when one of the roommates turns it off and wont turn it back on despite protests. One of the roomies confronts the Turner Offer, there is yelling and screaming, some shoving and so on. The Turner Offer retreats to her room, reemerges with a kitchen knife, which she proceeds to stick in the neck of the chief Yeller and Screamer. Yeller and screamer dies, Turner Offer is arrested.
So far, just another pointless and boring story that could happen anywhere in the world. But here's our point. At the bail hearing, the defendant's lawyer argues that bail is warranted because the defendant's behavior was not typical of her.
Well, we sure hope it wasn't typical of her, else we'd be forced to ask what she was doing roaming around free in her college dorm and stabbing to death yet another roommate over yet another minor argument.

0230 GMT September 21, 2011

Will Americans start rioting? We still say no Mayor Bloomberg raised this possibility as a possible reaction by young people when they find their future has been stolen. BBC discusses this issue http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-14978876 We side with those who say Americans blame themselves for their state. Blaming oneself is a very deep-seated feature of the American psyche. It's going to take more than the past 40 years of no improvement in wages for the great majority of Americans to get people into the streets. So the haves are safe, we feel.
Of course, once people start rioting, as we saw in the recent English riots, its the have-nots and those struggling to make a living who get hit. The police, as agents of the government, make sure rioters are kept away from the haves.
So we don't think rioting is a solution either. The sole viable option is the ballot box. And this is not going to be easy. The people with the money have so much control over the media that you have wildly establishment people like Governor Perry of Texas managing to pass themselves as radicals, and the people swallow this rot. And when people like Mr. Obama can deploy a billion dollars for reelection, Mr. Obama of course being part and parcel of the existing establishment (along with the ladies and gentlemen of the right), it's hard for change to come about.
We note that technically you can have radicals on the right as well as the left.
Italy takes a hit as its credit rating falls. Meanwhile, our fave Euro, Berlo, has been caught on tape saying that one night he had eleven ladies lined up outside his bedroom door, but alas, after eight he could continue no more. Dear, dear Berlo. What a liar.
To clarify, we don't doubt there were eleven ladies. When your pimp is paying each woman several thousand Euros for an evening, plus all sorts of other goodies should a woman catch Berlo's eye, then of course there will be a long line.
We further don't doubt that Berlo slept with the eight ladies. But has anyone polled the ladies to ask if they were satisfied with Berlo's performance? No. Now, if eight ladies on the same night paid Editor 5000 Euros each, Editor would do enough shrieking and moaning to convince each client that they were absolutely the best, and not only did the earth move, it was like when the 10-km asteroid hit Mexico 65-million years ago and wiped out the dinosaurs. That's what he's tell the first lady. He'd tell the second it was like when Mars collided with Earth, and tell the third it was like a start going nova. Heck, for another 1000 Euros Editor would swear it was like a supernova.
Please contrast this sad Berlo behavior with that of Mr. Putin of Russia. Mr. Putin merely strips at every opportunity and displays himself. In a famous picture he is out hunting bare-chested, and you just know there's something wrong with that foto, because if you've been to Russia in the summer, you know the skeeters in the boonies are as big as B-52s and twice as lethal. No matter. At least Mr. Putin is not boasting about women he pays a pimp for. For an encore he jumps into the Arctic in February to rescue a sick polar bear - bare-chested, of course, then he pilots a plane and personally extinguishes forest fires that have already burned a fifth of Russia - he flies bare-chested, naturally. Far from being satiated, Mr. Putin then prevents a core meltdown at not one, but four Russian reactors. and - you guessed it - he is bare-chested.
You never hear Mr. Putin talk about his women. Indeed, we are told he has just one, a Russian gymnast, and when he's around her he smiles like a goofy schoolboy and his ears turn pink.
So Berlo, take a hint from a real man. Zip the lip. actually, zip everything and do some work, will you, to stop Italy from being next in the default line after Spain and Portugal?
Math joke forwarded by reader Luxembourg "Math joke from Anna, the civil engineering student and bartender at Brackins Blues Club: an infinite number of mathematicians walk into a bar. The first one tells the bartender he wants a beer. The second one says he wants half a beer. The third one says he wants a fourth of a beer. The bartender puts two beers on the bar and says “You guys need to learn your limits.”"

0230 GMT September 20, 2011

Time to accept the inevitable on Greece There's no sense substituting hope for reality. Greece cannot pay back the money is borrowed on current terms. There has to be a 50% hair cut for lenders. The Greek economy is already in recession because of budget cuts, with the GDP falling an incredible 7% in the second quarter alone. making it even more difficult to pay back the money. Greece's structural problems are so acute that they cannot be resolved tomorrow, or even a year from now. The country manufactures nothing, its tax structure is positively Byzantine, evasion is so widespread that paying tax as fully owed is an abnormal activity, even the compromises made on pensions/retirement benefits are nowhere near enough, and Greeks have a strong anarchic/anti-capitalist streak. Push them too far - and they are so being pushed - and they're going to come back with torches to burn everything down. They are particularly angry because they believe, rightly or wrongly is not the point, that the person on the street is being made to pay for the excesses of the capitalists. The capitalists borrowed the money, the Greek people don't think they got anything out of it, so as far as they are concerned, let the capitalists pay it back.
Every 48 hours we have a Greece crisis. For a year, the patient is being rushed again and again to the hospital CCU, and Europe frantically works to patch up the latest hemorrhage. at some point, and we're approaching it rapidly, there is nothing left of the patient, its all bandages with nothing inside.
The cost of insuring Greek debt is reaching 4000 basis points, a staggering figure. This means people think there's a 98% chance Greece will default in the next five years. The whole thing is a farce and a pack of cards. The Euro governments do not have the money that those who are betting against Greece have. At this time in history, private capital is far more powerful than public capital.
Better to pull the plug, take the consequences, and start again.
Libya There's no need to worry that Sirte, Sabha, and Bani Walid are still holding out. There's a limit to what the loyalist defenders can do considering they can get no reinforcements or supplies to replace their expenditures. The NTC fighters have been willfully stupid in thier campaign against Bani Walid, but sooner or later they will get themselves together. And the loyalists keep getting battered by NATO every day. At some point the defense will collapse. We can't say when, but realistically all the loyalists can hope for is to delay.
But then the question arises: delay to what purpose? Gaddaffi is hardly going to return and retake Libya, even if he is currently busy arranging more mercenaries. Beyond a point no one is going to want to go fight in Libya knowing that sooner or later the war is lost. NATO did not bomb convoys leaving, but they will bomb convoys arriving because NATO has no interest in this war continuing. What deal can the loyalists get by holding out? Terms to leave Libya? They had their opportunity, and decided not to leave with the 4000 or so soldiers/tribal fighters who did leave. why would the NTC now offer them safe passage even if the loyalists asked?
Here's an article that explains some of the BTC's fighters' problems at Bani Walid.

0230 GMT September 19, 2011

What not to do in England if a burglar breaks into your house Heaven forfend if you hurt the intruder, or even worse, kill him. Americans simply grab their shotguns and blast away. The English want you to stand there, calmly assess the risk of your actions to the intruder, get out your law books and conduct a detailed analysis of the situation, and then offer the intruder hot cocoa, your bunny slippers, and blue blankie. Make sure he is comfy while you pack up the stuff he wants, and make sure to ask if he has enough money to get home. If not, offer to stop at an ATM while you drive him home. Once you have reached his home, conduct an investigation of his childhood, and chastise his folks for any trauma they might have caused him when he was a kid. Before leaving, be sure to write him several job recommendations, and give him detailed instructions on your neighbors valuables and the best time to rob their houses.
If you do all that, you MAY save yourself from going to jail. No guarantees, now.
Frankly, we think house intruders is something Americans simply do a lot better than the English. We will go a step further and argue that in these days of financial stringency and economic crisis, it is the duty of every homeowner to shoot intruders dead. Why should these people be sent to the criminal justice system where that very same homeowner's taxes are used to look after intruders? Is this not a double insult? First you come to rob me in my home, then I have to pay for the police who arrest you, the jail in which you are kept, the judge who hears your case, the public defender who represents you, and the parole officer who tends to you after you are released? How is this fair?
Motto of the day: Shoot intruders and help the deficit.
More Indians oppose Palestine statehood than any of 19 nations we were very intrigued by the BBC poll http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14946179 because only 32% of Indians supported the idea, the lowest of any country in the poll. Egypt topped at 90%, followed by Turkey at 60%, China and the Philippines at 56%, UK, France, and Germany had 53-54%, US had 46%.
The poll had a high degree of absentations or "it depends on the situation" - 30%.

0230 GMT September 18, 2011

Sense of Proportion Another in our occasional series of what's important and what's unimportant.
Important Michelle Salahi runs away with aging rocker; Tariq Salahi sues for divorces on grounds of adultery.
Unimportant Greece on verge of default.
Cause worth fighting for Reinstatement of Alisha Smith, New York State prosecutor, suspended for her side business of latex-clad dominatrix.
Cause not worth fighting for President Obama's job plan.
Must urgently debate Should Pippa Middleton have worn green at a friend's wedding?
Must urgently ignore US SecTreasury Tim Geithner's plan to revive flagging euro economies.
Horrifying tragedy British man brewing vodka at home accidently blows up his house; vodka lost.
Totally blah Mideast crisis brews as Palestine pushes bid at UN for statehood.
Go figure First in a new series of Totally Baffling Facts. When US top income rate was 91% (1950s), taxes amounted to 18% of GDP. When top rate was 28% (1988-89), taxes amounted to 18% of GDP (Business Week, September 19, 2011, p. 62.)
Everyone knows if you raise the tax rate too high people find ways to evade them. So a 91% rate is counterproductive. But by the same token, when tax rates are dramatically slashed - 28% - shouldn't the amount collected go up? Apparently not.
India actually talks back to China China tells India not to invest with Vietnam in South China sea oil exploration because the South China Sea belongs to China - all of it, as well as the East China Sea and the North China Sea and so on. India tells China, if you don't want us investing in your disputed territory, why are you building roads and dams in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir against our protests?
Follow-up news Sun now rises in west.
We are shocked, shocked US discovers Haqqani network is based in Pakistan and linked to Pakistan Army. US is just sooooo smart!
Ironically, when the Haqqanis are killing American soldiers, US has little to say to Pakistan. But now just because a handful of dead-enders attacked the US Embassy - at long distance and with no casualties to speak of, US pride is pricked and Washington is beating up Pakistan. We hope the Haqqanis have learned their lesson. Killing American forces is OK. Making Washington look like idiots is not.
From Reader E. Rhodes Your editorial request to leave Mrs. Palin alone misses the point. If she were a private citizen, no one would care who she slept with, how lazy she is, or her lack of parenting skills. But she is a candidate for public office, declared or not is not the issue. Moreover, she is an enthusiastic drum major for "family values" whatever those are in today's crazy America. She is then guilty of hypocrisy. Comparing Mrs. Palin's media treatment to that given to President Kennedy is irrelevant. JFK would not be electable today, hot or not, simply because of his non-stop womanizing. He would definitely be impeached for his sexual escapades. And serious questions would be asked about his addiction to prescription painkillers, and his choice of shady friends. Times have changed.

0230 GMT September 17, 2011

How a bad day turned into a good day

So today Editor was turned down for a teaching job with his county for the eighth interview since mid-June, which is when those not already employee as teachers were permitted to apply for teacher positions. People are shaking their heads, because in this field no one has eight interviews and no job offer, 1-2 are usually enough, in the hard times 2-4 is maybe more realistic. Editor has credentials up the wazoo: two certifications, four masters degrees (fourth will be done in December and the fifth will start in February 2012, fifteen years experience in differing conditions and so on and so forth.
It all has to do with age and not speaking American: being 30-40 years older than other people interviewing does not help. Editor had to resign from his previous teaching position because the new principal wanted all the old teachers out, and one way or the other, was getting them out. In Maryland, it takes two "unsatisfactory" evaluations to finish your teaching career; the evaluations are 100% subjective; you can be rated satisfactory on 30 categories but if you're unsatisfactory on one, that's it. So at this previous school a lot of the older teachers already had their pensions and so on, so if they were fired it didn't really matter to them. Editor came to teaching late, and to public school teaching even later, and with various wives running off with every last dollar and so on, Editor can't very well tell his principal, "take your job and put it where the sun never shines" (one teacher actually told the principal that). So he resigned, because that way you still have your teaching certificate.
So Editor was thinking this all was so boring, in one's old age one should at least not to have to worry that the mortgage payment one sent may be the very last one. Editor consoled himself that the situation was not hopeless in the long term: the Baby Boomers have to start dropping dead or prove unable to continue teaching - physically demanding, and very high stress job, and when the Boomers start going there will be a teacher shortage again. Mind you, when one is older than the Boomers, outliving them to get a job is not the best strategy, but hey, as Rummy Rumsfield said, you have to fight the war you get, not the war you want (or something like that).
But then, returning from another day of subbing ($93 after taxes in one of the most expensive American counties, and all the joys of working with disobedient, foul-mouthed, electronics-addicted, addled brained students who think school is where you come to socialize) Editor heard this news on the radio: six percent - we repeat that, six percent of Americans think Congress is doing a good job according to a New York Times/CBS poll (something like that). Eight-four percent - that's more than four in every five - say Congress needs new people.
Now, before you write in to say: "You of all people should know polls are unreliable," let's make clear that it doesn't matter how you slice, dice, wiggle, or jiggle this, a whacking great majority of people want Congress fired. It doesn't matter if the figures are - say - 12% approve and 72% disapprove. Something is very definitely going on.
It may even be an American Spring sort of thing. People are angry. Incidentally, people are mad at BOTH parties. This was not a poll taken among Democrats who were asked what they thought of how the GOP members of Congress were performing.
So Editor was actually whistling as he arrived home, and for once didn't even complain to himself about the rest of his drudgery filled day, which consists of trying to make a few extra bucks to add to the $93. (No benefits, no work if not needed that day, in other words, a situation that make yonder capitalists drool furiously, and this is the much-maligned public sector we're talking of; outside of day laborers, we can't think of any other profession where one toils in the vineyards of one's master and so on on this basis. Hey: that's good, now when anyone asks Editor what he does, he'll say he's a day laborer, because that's exactly what he is. he would prefer to be - cough cough - a night laborer, if you get his meaning, but in America it's always been understood "No Money. No Honey".)
Anyhow, we digress.
Our problem is that Americans may be calling for throwing the bums out, but all that will happen is they will elect a new set of bums. The real problem is otherwise, and since our reader Patrick Skuza summed it up nicely the other day, we'll simply quote him.
From Patrick Skuza "There is a point in complex machines where adding complexity achieves diminishing returns.Heaping govt. programs, "reforms", "bailouts" and TSA and.... on a system of organization that was built up beginning in the steam age. Rivets are popping and cogs are flying off shafts and the boiler is fired by something arcane like whale oil. Putting new electronic controls on it does not a wit of good on a machine that is worn out. It will need to be replaced and all the nostalgia from all of the western capitals is not going to put Humpty dumpty back together again. Generation X is going to have to cut it up for scrap and the Millennial generation is going to have to build a new architecture. Much to the chagrin of the baby boomers. Ohh...this is going to be
ugly."
Now, it would be a mistake to think Mr. Skuza's comment is a political screed from the right. He is making a much larger point than simply arguing left or right. It's not going to be enough to put patches on the engine or hire a new engineer. America is broken, busted, rusted, corrupted, finished. You have to throw everything into the scrap heap, and as Mr. Skuza says, build an entirely new engine, one for the 21st Century.
When 84% of the population says we need to design, build, and run an entirely new engine, then Editor will celebrate. On that day, if he's still alive, he will neither complain about his job situation or his lack of a date.

Mrs. Palin

If you read Doonesbury, which Editor does because the strip can be really, really funny sometimes, you will have noticed something odd happening. Roland Headley has obtained proofs of the new book by someone or the other on Mrs. Palin, and the strip quotes stuff from the book. This person is said to be a serious writer, we have no idea. Now, though Mrs. Palin supporters are yelling "hatchet job!", we are entirely unable to understand why anyone thinks that these are revelations. Editor actually has very little knowledge about what American politicians do, just as he has very little information on what American sports stars, Snookie, the Kardashian Sisters, and Michelle and Tariq Salahi do. He cannot tell you what Taylor Swift has recorded, how old Madonna is, who beat Ms. Williams at some match where she is said to have cursed the umpire "Don't even look at me" - come on, Ms. Williams, you graduated middle school a while ago. No need to go on, you get the point. Editor exists in blissful ignorance about much of his adopted land.
But here is the point. Even Editor knows stuff like Mrs. Palin is a racist, that she's lazy, that she governed Alaska by not governing, that she didn't look after her kids, that she used her sexuality to get her way, and that she had affairs.
Editor's reaction is (a) This is a revelation? (b) I am supposed to care?
Look, young people, at times like this you need Editor to explain things to you. We old timers do have our uses. There is a very simple rule in life: if you're hot, you get away with everything. If you're not, fuggaedabhatit.
Before the one lady reader we have (or think we have, might be a gentleman masquerading as a lady, or even a beagle masquerading as a lady masquerading as a gentleman masquerading an Orbat.com reader, you know how things go these days on the Internet) accuses us of being sexist, let's talk about JFK, who was very hot.
Poor Bubba Boy almost got impeached for accepting - cough cough - occasional service from Big Haired Ladies, but JFK went through three ladies a day no matter which part of the White House he was in. His election was bought for him by his daddy. He couldn't govern his way out of a paper bag. And how many friends of color did he have? Okay, different times and all that, but still.
JFK got away with everything because he was hot.
We think complaining about Mrs. Palin is sexist. Let her alone, people.

0230 GMT September 16, 2011

On Israel from Richard Bennett Editor had privately expressed the opinion that as the authoritarian Arab regimes fall, the corrupt bargain America made with them to assure Israel's security will also fall because the people will not be bought off the way America bought off the despots,. Mr. Bennett replied:
Strangely while Israel undoubtedly has additional security problems, her overall conventional military superiority has grown....there simply isn't an Arab nation capable of organizing and mounting a serious attack at the moment.
Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States now 'need' Israel to counter-balance the growing military influence of Iran; it appears increasingly likely that the US will once again find Israel it's only strong and reliable Mid-East 'partner' and like it or not Turkey needs to remain part of NATO and wants to be part of the EU in time. It simply cannot take real action against Israel and have any reasonable hope of achieving its other more important economic and political aims.
Egypt and Turkey would risk soon finding themselves scratching around for new non-US weapons if they behave too stupidly or aggressively, while advanced systems could be made available to Israel in increasing numbers. I don't think Iran, China or Russia could easily replace the US as the main supplier of effective modern weaponry to the Arab world.
Michigan to track kids' weight Reader Luxembourg sends this story from http://www.wlsam.com/Article.asp?id=2286003&spid= The tracking will be done anonymously. Childhood obesity has become an epidemic, and America as a whole is in danger of sinking the continent beneath the waves, we are putting on weight so fast.
A mea culpa here. Before Editor came back to the US 21 years ago, he weighed 140-lbs from eating a very lean South Asian diet and living a tension-free life. Editor now weights 192-lbs. Of course, a lot of that has to do with the gym. In India he walked or cycled, exercise that is good for keeping your weight down. Nonetheless, the American diet, and constant tension - and Editor means constant - is definitely responsible for at least 30 of those porky pounds.
So, we agree obesity is a big problem, because along with it comes every disease known to humans, and the health care bill just keeps going up.
Editor, however, is having a bit of a problem with this Michigan idea, and it's not because he's a social conservative. He's not. Increasingly, and Editor as a teacher sees this all the time, Americans are abdicating responsibility for themselves and their children, and are happy for someone else to pick up the load. But what came first, the chicken or the egg? Did the state start picking up jobs we as individuals used to be responsible for, our health being one, because people don't look after themselves, or is it people are not taking responsibility because they know someone else will do the job?
And if the state is already - just to give an example - teaching my children about sex and drugs because I won't, feeding healthy meals to my kids because I won't, using taxation and state propaganda to warn me of and discourage me from smoking and drinking, again, because I wont take that responsibility myself, where does this end? It's no use saying "now don't exaggerate, these are very small things the state is doing and its for our good", because when Editor was a kid the state didn't do any of the things mentioned, and when the generation previous to the Editor were kids the state did even less. Given what Parkinson said about bureaucracies (and by the way, one reason American health care is failing is because corporate bureaucrats have taken over, bureaucrats are not just government employees), and given past evidence, is it really so paranoid to assume that assume that within years the amount of salt, fat, bad carbohydrates etc. we ingest will also come under mandate, to be followed by the exercise we get, and other things.
The state has a habit of saying it's acting for our own good. By the way, just because we said that doesn't mean we love the giant corporates. The corporates have a habit of saying they are only responding to the "market", i.e., giving us what we want, but using advertising the corporates create our needs and wants. If you doubt that, come teach school for a day and see what advertising ahs done to the values of our children. The state wants to control us because it accretes power, the corporates want to control us, making us consumer slaves, because they want to make profits for themselves. Hang them both is what the Editor says.
You don't have to channel Ayn Rand and the Libertarian party to wonder: since when did personal responsibility become a dirty word?
As far as the Editor is concerned, he is willing to let the state regulate his weight on one condition. If the state is going to take over, Editor wants the state to provide him a date every Saturday. It seems only fair.

0230 GMT September 15, 2011

Another mysterious China-India episode which didn't happen Locals in the concerned area of Indian-controlled Ladakh said that Chinese troops arrived in two helicopters, walked 1500-meters, and destroyed old, unoccupied bunkers belong to the Indian Army and discarded tents of the Indo-Tibet Border Police, the paramilitary force that is the first line of defense for much of the Ladakh and Himachal borders with Tibet,
The only dispute is did the helicopters fly into Indian territory or land outside.
The Indian Army, of course, says none of this happened.
Now, a while back there was news of a confrontation between an Indian naval landing ship off Vietnam and the Chinese Navy. Didn't happen, says the Indian Government. Except it did, and we've confirmed it on the Washington end. We can't give you details, because the few Washington people who we know don't love us, and refused to give us details.
As we said at that time, the Indian press is not exactly a model of exactitude, precision, balance etc in its reporting and so its quite possible many reported episodes of Chinese intrusions are actually quite minor and likely errors, the sort of thing that happens all the time along a militarized frontier. But the Indian Government has a decades long record of lying, the ostensible reason being the government doesn't want to escalate tension. The real reason is that the Government of India gets severe stomach cramps followed by what Indians inelegantly call "loose motions" every time China is mentioned.
So we can't say if this Ladakh episode happened. if it did, you can be sure the government would deny it.
GOP victory in New York by-election for seat held by a democratic congressperson who resigned after it was found he had been sending - er - below-the-belt pictures of himself to various ladies. Hypocrisy is not a crime in America unless you get caught, in which case you are subjected to a public shaming that would have made the old-time New England Puritans swoon with delight. Anyway, that isn't the point.
The seat has been held by Democrats for near 90 years. The GOP is understandably gleeful, and says this is a harbinger of the down-fall of President Obama.
The Democrats say the district has a high number of hard-line Jewish voters who were unhappy with the position of the Democratic runner, and that the results have nothing to say about 2012.
As far as we are concerned, if the Martians would simply take the three arms of American government away for experiments and not return them, we'd probably all be better off.
By The way. this will be another year the US will not have a budget in time for the new fiscal year, which is 15-days away. Even on a small issue like the FAA funding, where the government risks losing $80-million/day in uncollected fees, the budget is passed in increments of a week or two at a time.
Americans are entitled to ask what kind of a government they have if it can't even get a budget out. Americans are asking that, but nowhere near enough for a revolution.

0230 GMT September 14, 2011

Someone please put NATO/ISAF out of its misery - send them home Editor has lived a long while and he has over 55 years of reading the press and history books and so on. Today he came across something he has never before encountered.
A bunch of Taliban clowns decided to climb into a 9-floor under construction building in Kabul and fire on several building around, including the US Embassy and NATO/ISAF headquarters.
So, as you'd expect, the US Embassy sent its staff to safe rooms and so on, while US troops climbed on roof tops. All quite sensible so far.
But at NATO/ISAF headquarters, the UK Guardian tells us - and you can read it yourself if you don't believe us, at http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/sep/13/kabul-explosions-afghan-capital-blasts - "Dozens of soldiers were ushered into bunkers and the dining hall, where they loaded their weapons and placed chairs against the doors to prevent any incursion."
Can someone let us know in which field manual does it describe a maneuver when under enemy attack, usher soldiers into bunkers and into the dining room, where they load their weapons, propped chairs to hinder entry into the dining room? Is this the maneuver you use where your positions are overrun and you retreat to your final strongpoint for a last stand?
But aren't there a few thousand people at ISAF/NATO HQ, a large fraction of them armed? What positions were overrun? Why aren't these clowns outside and fighting back?
We do hope none of the Liddle Widdle Darling Pooh Bears were scratched, it would be just so distressing and at Orbat.com we'd just cry and cry.
This episode is highly sick-making. Extremely gag-reflex inducing, Please get these people out of Afghanistan, and please disband NATO forces. Why waste good money when there is so much financial stringency back home?
Please don't make Editor borrow ticket money on his credit card to Kabul and beat NATO/ISAF HQ with a limp noodle. We can already hear the squeals of terror...yes, folks, hide in the bunkers, the Limp Noodle is Coming and Its Gonna Get You!
Gaaaaah.
Indian Chief of Army Staff Controversy We still don't have a simple explanation of what happened/is happening. But two people with no stake in the outcome have written in to say that the Indian Army's Chief of Staff has always maintained he was born in 1951. Due to clerical error he was put down as 1950 when he joined the Indian Military Academy. His father had the error corrected, but apparently by the time this was done 1950 appeared in other records and files. His father and later the officer himself repeatedly got this corrected, were told it was corrected, but then it was pulled out again by powers to be that want him out so that a particular officer can becomes COAS.
We are further informed that it isn't so much pure seniority that determines senior promotions as if the officer has two years left to serve depending on the retirement age for that particular post. Once that is established, the senior-most officer gets the job. The upshot of this is that far from the current COAS taking advantage of his 1950 birthdate to get promotions on the basis he was more senior, and becoming COAS and then saying he was born in 1951 to get extended, had he used the 1950 date, he would likely not have had two years left in each of the posts (corps commander, army commander, and Chief of Army Staff). It is then illogical for him to say he was born in 1950. If the above is correct, it seems that he must all along have been claiming he was born in 1951.
Why then has the press been saying he previously claimed 1950? Because the press has been briefed by those who want the current COAS out so that their man can get appointed. If the current COAS is 1951, then the other gentleman will not have two years in the job and cannot be appointed.
What can we conclude from this? Again, assuming the above is correct, this episode reflects very badly on both the Indian Army and the Ministry of Defense - not on the current COAS as we had said, going by press reports. No one should be playing games to get a particular person appointed. The Indian system is designed to prevent political and military bureaucratic interference in senior posts. As such, it is far superior to the American system which at its highest levels is a political process, even if Congress generally confirms the person whose name is sent. Those names are sent as a result of a military bureaucratic political process, which is not right. Under the guise of getting "the best person" the American system leaves itself open to manipulation at many levels.
Having made that pronouncement from Mt. Olympus, Editor now sits backs and awaits blasts from (a) opponents of the current India COAS; and (b) defenders of the American system of senior officer selection. One place we will not get blasts from is America's military rank and file. We have been told for at least 40 years by the rank and file that the US senior officer selection process guarantees political officers will rise to the top, not the best officers. In other words, nothing has changed since at least Vietnam, maybe even further back.
Blast away, people. Sticks and stones, that sort of thing.

0230 GMT September 13, 2011

Libya Media seems to be tired of Libya because we are not getting any worthwhile information. Gaffy is not going quietly into the good night. A guerilla column launched an attacked on the Ras Launuf refinery, killing 15 people at the gates but otherwise causing no other damage. This is indicative of a pattern we are likely to see emerge. Thanks to NATO's insistence that its job is not to bomb columns running away from Libya, several leaders and 3-4000 hardcore fighters have escaped, along with lots of gold, which was also prepositioned in likely safe spots. Plenty to get a good size guerilla war going.
Thank you NATO, instead of next time shooting yourself in the feet, which you have done several times already to the extent you're running around in a motorized wheelchair, can you do us all a favor and next time shoot yourself in the head? That way you'll out yourself out of our misery. Likely you'll mess that up too.
No word from Bani Walid, except to repeat what we've said earlier and in tweets. Most of the town is in government hands, but the loyalists occupy the center and are posing stiff resistance because they fear they will be shot if they surrender. So by resisting they are making sure they will be shot, because when attackers have suffered casualties they are not in a kind, gentle, nurturing mood.
Regarding Sirte there is no news. Yesterday we reported media as saying villages to the north and south of the coastal road had fallen to government troops, but a Gaffy counterattack in the center - presumably that means along the road, pushed the government fighters back. They are still 130-km from Sirte, which is a lot further than we had thought.
Indian Chief of Army Staff We received many lively comments and one detailed explanation of why we were wrong in criticizing the Indian COAS. Unfortunately, the explanation is so detailed that only someone with a very good current knowledge of the situation can make sense of it. We are working on getting together a simplified explanation of both sides in the dispute.
From Patrick Skuza Thank you for saying what I have been mentally screaming at the random TV screens I encounter. I doubt John Clesse could have said it better. The impotence of thought in this nation has me far more
worried than I was during the cold war. I could form strategies to protect myself from Soviet attack. How do you protect your self from mass stupidity? We live in an age of emotions deluded from reality and I don't know what to do with these zombies.I am going off to play with my trains now...........at least in that world I can make the trains run on time.
Editor's note Editor has a giant layout (HO gauge) with a 120-feet main line. Editor spent all his free time one summer building it, and now cannot figure out to make it run. Bigger a model railroad, the more complicated the wiring etc gets. This situation is symbolic of something. No doubt what it is symbolic of will come to us. Mr. Skuza models German railroads. Editor's railroad models nothing. It has mil4es of track and six trees. deeply meaningful, no doubt.
GOP turns 16-inch guns on President's Jobs Plan So since more deficit financing is politically suicidal, President Obama wants to eliminate some tax loopholes for those making over $200,000 to pay for the package.
So GOP already says it cannot agree to most of his proposals because he's taxing "job creators".
That the wealthy in America are "job creators" will cause much mirth and merriment among the muppets and stuffed toys. By this logic, the 1950s and 1960s must have been really ghastly jobs-wise, because taxes on the rich were in the 60-90% range. Unemployment must have been horrendous. The social unrest must have destroyed civil society in America. Only food handouts from India and China could have kept America from mass starvation.
Once you accept that the universe is infinite, and there are an infinite number of infinite universes, then everything that can happen has happened - infinitely many times. So the universe we describe above, where taxes on "job creators" killed America, is out there somewhere. Since nothing - in our universe at least - travel faster than the speed of light (okay, lets be more accurate - no information can be conveyed faster than the speed of light), we're unclear how the GOP got its information from these alternate universes. Unless they got it the way people in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s used to get: ingesting vast quantities of prohibited substances.
Does this mean we're supporting the President's job plan? No, because we said already its too little, too late. Well, isn't something better than nothing? Possibly, but in this case the President will have to expend so much of the very little political capital he still owns - and the result is still likely to be some pale shadow of his jobs plan - that we're not sure what the point of pushing this would be.
Israel we were asked the other day why we haven't commented on Israel much after the start of the Arab Spring. The reason is there's not much to say. Israel's security was built by the US's corrupt bargains with Mideast dictators. Those dictators are falling. The process won't be complete anytime soon, but it will happen. Democratic Mideast regimes will repudiate those agreements. US/Israel will be in the soup. It's not very complicated.
In Egypt, of course, we have the ugly sight of the man who would be Egypt's next dictator, Field Marshal Tantawai, still trying to use anti-Israeli emotions to hold the power that Mubarak, Sadat, and Nasser enjoyed. Won't work. People are very frightened of the Egyptian Army, and they should be. But the Egyptian army is not the Syrian Army. After a point it wont fire anymore on demonstrators. So far those demonstrators have avoided precipitating a major challenge to the Army. Everyone is still accepting the fiction that the generals are the friends of democracy.
Nonetheless, the people are growing restless. If the army won't step aside, it will be pushed aside.

0230 GMT September 12, 2011

Message to America re 9/11

Please stop this disgusting, moronic, extreme orgy of narcissism that brings shame on our country and is an insult to those who died on 9/11 and their survivors. This is not an occasion to show how deeply you feel about the event. No one gives one crumb of a state cookie how you feel. This is not an occasion to see who can shed the most tears, measured in cubic meters per second. No one is interested in your indulgent tears. This is not an occasion to wave an American flag (made in China) to show how patriotic you are. Patriotism is about giving your life for your country if called upon, it is not about the show that you can put on.
There are those who have reason to mourn 9/11. Please show them respect by getting a grip on yourself, and letting them them mourn quietly. This is not your show, so don't hog the attention.
George Will, the Washington Post columnist who we agree with sometimes and disagree with sometimes made the point that on December 7, 1951, the tenth anniversary of Pearl Harbor, the New York Times had no mention of the day that lived in infamy. The next day, he says, the paper ran the iconic photo of Battleship Row, but did so because it could print a color photograph. The black and white photograph is far more impressive, but that is another matter. Perhaps Americans did not feel the need to display emotion over the tenth anniversary of Pearl Harbor because they preferred to remember quietly that cataclysmic event that really did change America forever.
What exactly has 9/11 changed for the 99% of us who are not in the military? Oooooh, I know, I know, teacher I know, let me answer: we are 10-lbs fatter and out butts are two inches wider. That's how much we sacrificed.
"Never forget'? What kid of weepy, wimpy slogan is that? When the Japanese declared war on us, we set out to kill every last one of them if neccessary, and that included old men, women, children,. their sick and their lame. The Pacific War was one of the merciless of modern wars, and if the Japanese hadn't come to their senses and surrendered, we'd have burned Japan to the ground and buried the survivors under the ashes.
And that's exactly the way it should have been.
Meanwhile, what are we going to tell our kids when they ask: "Dad, Mom, what did you do during the Global War On Terror?" Oooooh, I know the answer to that too, teacher: We watched Dancing With The Stars, paid for the war on the national credit card, indulged ourselves in an orgy of consumer and health spending and tax cuts, bankrupted the country, and left you the wreckage to deal with, robbing you of your future. Sorry about that.

The Other News

Libya We perfectly understand that barely trained Libyan citizens would be reluctant in the extreme to go house to house in Bani Walid or Sirte; no one wants to get killed, or worse, crippled. if the fighters of the government of Libya had said: "Hey, its going to take at least a year before we're trained sufficiently," Editor would have said: "Make sure you wait, then."
What we are objecting to the is the constant talk, the non-stop bravado, that the fighters outside Bani Walid have engaged in. Ooooh, we're not going in because we don't want to kill civilians being held hostage by loyalists. First, we've never heard that excuse for delaying taking what is after all, one of the last four bastions of the defeated regime (the others being Jufra, Sirte, and Sabah). Second, it turns out the fighters didn't want to fight and hoped that talking would wear out the loyalists.
Again, Editor also doesn't want to fight: you do not see pictures of him standing outside Bani Walid, leaning on a technical and looking cool in aviator glasses. But then Editor is not boasting and trying to talk the enemy to death, either.
More than the yak-yak, Editor is bothered by the complete failure of the media to explain anything about the action. Why couldn't the press have made clear that the Libyan government fighters outside Bani Walid had divided loyalties, on the one hand hating Gaffy, on the other not wanting to fight their brothers inside, and that this lot told the rest of the Libyan leadership "leave it to us, and we'll get them to surrender?"
Now the big boys have shown up from Misrata, and it didn't take them but 48 hours to organize the attack and enter the city, most of which they control. It will take time, because the defenders are quite rightly worried about about will happen to them if they surrender. This is the secret police and the Khamis Brigade dregs, and a whole bunch of them are going to get shot - which again is the way it should be.
Back to the little boys, they kept telling us they had the city surrounded and not a mouse could get in or out. Well, not really. When they arrived there were less than a hundred loyalists, something they learned from their comrades inside the city. But then clearly the little boys got out their blue blankies and teddy bears for nice cozy snoozes, because several hundred loyalists looking for a place to make a last stand infiltrated the city.
Meanwhile, the commander of Gaffy's southern forces, a Tureg, decided it was time to save his own skin and vanished into Niger. The government of Niger is babbling on about letting people come in for humanitarian reasons and they can't police the frontier and so on, but the reality is the Gaffy lot are moving around openly in Niger, lubricating official palms with the needful. But there will be a price to be paid: the US/NATO is going to get on Niger's case for refusing to arrest wanted men. They will want answers.

0230 GMT September 11, 2011

Non-event of the day: Bani Walid The town did not fall yesterday. The government fighters have been saying there's 70-100 loyalists holding out. So they attacked, saying at one point they were 500-meters from the city center. Meeting "fierce resistance" - less than 10 killed - the government fighters say they had to withdraw as NATO told them it was going to put in air strikes. Of a sudden, there are now 1000 loyalists fighting in Bani Walid. Must have materialized using Star Trek matter transporters, because the rebels have had the town sewn up tight for days now.
To add to the confusion, the government fighters belonging to the same tribe as the Bani Walid holdouts want custody of the handful of loyalists captured. The other government fighters suspect - with good reason - that their comrades plan to let these fighters go, because they're related to them.
The government fighters now need to enforce a moratorium on gratuitous statements made by their fellows twenty times a day. Just keep quiet, do your job, and when you've taken Bani Walid let us know. We'll applaud then.
Non-event of the previous day: Obama jobs plan Four little words: Too little, too late. That's assuming the plan gets passed as is. Which it will not. The GOP has figured that it doesn't matter if its approval rating are in the dump as long as Obama's rating can be pulled down even lower. They have no incentive to cooperative with the president, and frankly, he is so devoid of leadership style we're sure Bo the White House dig paid no attention to the jobs proposal.
Assuming it all works as planned, the unemployment rate may go down by 1%. so instead of 9%+, it will be 8%+. Which will not change the reality that as many people want to work but cannot find full-time hours, or have given up looking because they've been looking for so long. It also will not change the reality there's a whole bunch of people in marginal jobs that leave them below the poverty line even after working full time.
Please repeat after Editor: There is no demand so there will be no hiring. There is no demand because Americans don't have jobs and are borrowed up the wazoo and can't borrow another plugged cent. The "prosperity" of the last 30-years was based on borrowing. Until that overhang is eliminated, people cannot borrow again. Since the banks will not let that money go off their books, even though they will never see it, people's balance sheets will remain in the red. Lets talk about the subject in 2017.
Why is the Indian Chief of Army Staff disgracing his uniform? The Indian COAS entered the army with a document stating his date of birth as 1950. Three times he was given important promotions - corps commander, army commander, and COAS - based on his seniority based on his given birth date.
Now of a sudden, the COAS says he was actually born in 1951. Why is this important? Because when the COAS reaches 62 years of age, he has to retire. So this gentleman wants another 10 months in office based on his new birth date. But if he was born in 1951, he wouldn't have gotten those three promotions and wouldn't have become COAS: someone more senior would have have become.
Still further, the army's rules are exceedingly clear: any mistake on birth dates must be contested within two years of commissioning. Here some 40 years have gone by, and the COAS is bringing disgrace not only on himself, but on the institution.
There is only one thing to be done: the President of India has to call this gentleman - oaths are sworn to the President, who is the Commander in Chief, hand him a resignation letter, give him a pen, and tell him to sign. Failing which, remove him for fraud and court martial him.

0230 GMT September 10, 2011

What European debt crisis? We've never understood why the big media is called the "mainstream: media because it serves only the super rich. Which makes sense, because after all the so-called MSM costs centi-million bucks to set up and run, if not gigabucks.
Thus the MSM wants to sell us the story of the European debt crisis. Greece is in increasing risk of default, as high as 90%. This is a crisis.
Hello, MSM. It is not a crisis for anyone we know because no one we knew happily lent a few tens of billions to Greece. If those who did lend lose their money, please don't expect us to weep.
First, Economics 101R (the R is for Revisionist). In no holy book does it say those who lend money must be freed of all risk. The people who lent Greece money knew perfectly darn well they were doing a Risky Thing. But because the Big Bankers in Europe have their prime ministers, presidents, and members of parliament in their pockets, same as back home here in the US of A, the bankers lent money recklessly figuring their governments would make them whole.
In the US, our government not only made the bankers whole, it helped them make outsize profit at a time ordinary people are suffering. The bankers were made whole at the taxpayers expense. So no wonder the European bankers think they should have the same deal.
Problemo, dudes. The problemo is a dudette, a very colorless German hausfrau who looks like a pleasant grandmother. This dudette, known as Angela Merkel, does not see why her country, Germany, which is (a) famed for its thrift, and (b) for having made painful choice starting a decade ago to get its economy going - Germans haven't had a real wage increase in ten years, for example, should be bailing out the bankers. We're told there's other countries feel the same, Netherlands and Finland, for example.
And you know what? Dudette Frau Merkel is absolutely correct. The people who lent recklessly to Greece should take the hit.
But isn't that a crisis?
ask yourself one question: why is it a crisis?
The MSM will tell you "oh, if Greece defaults than lenders won't lend and credit will dry up and the economy will suffer."
As George Will, columnist for Washington Post says when he waxes highly wroth, Well. In the US the banks were made whole on that excuse, and they still have no intention of lending,
Further, the people with money have a very serious long-term problem. There is too much money in the world. Used to be a time when capital was scarce. No longer. There's trillions and trillions sloshing around. What are the owners of those trillions going to do, put their money under their mattress? Obviously not, because they want to make money. They'll still have to lend, its just this time they'll be more cautious.
Which is what they should have done in the first place.
So, give a "hurray" for Honest Merkel, who the bankers don't own, and let Greece default.
Flight 93 So we learn that the Air Guard's 113rd Fighter wing at Andrews was told to scramble F-16s to knock down Flight 93 which was heading for the White House. Yes, you heard that right: "Knock down", not "shoot down", because with the end of the Cold War NORAD stood down all but, and it would have taken an hour to arm the aircraft. So the plan was to do a kamakazi run against Flight 93, while pushing the eject button at the very last second, hopefully getting clear before everything went down. And if the pilots didn't clear, well, you're soldiers, for heaven's sake, you're expected to give your life for your country, and sorry about that.
To which our response is: No, no, and no. Asking these pilots to kamakazi to protect the White House/Congress is immoral on so many levels we'd have to devote an entire update to it. Asking them to kamikaze to protect civilians, yes. That would have been fine, noble, even. But to protect our politicians, the biggest scumbags of the earth?
Never. Better 999 American politicians die than one honest serviceperson be asked to give their life.
That said, the fighter commander handled choosing two pilots for the sortie absolutely the right way. He went, as he should because he was the unit leader. And he took his rookie pilot, who happened to be a woman - rookies are less likely to have spouses and children to leave behind. We are highly approving.
Here's a chance for India to return the outsourcing favor to the US When the sole surviving Bombay 2008 terrorist was sentenced to death, there was a lot of angst in India because where was a hangman to be found? No one has been executed since 2004, and the last hangman had retired and wanted to be left alone.
Now there's another person to be hanged, the 2001 Parliament attacker, and the same problem is going to come up.
It's at moments like these that India needs the Editor. No, not to conduct the hangings: its a task requiring great skill. If the Government of India wants a volunteer to shoot two terrorists, okay, Editor has his hand up. He can manage that. Lets see now, where did he put his reading glasses - one wants to make sure this is done right, you know.
India needs the Editor because the Editor has a solution to this problem of the No Hangman. Outsource the executions to Governor Rick Perry of Texas.
Note, we didn't say to the State of Texas. We said to the Governor. Reason for this is simple. Mr. Perry is a great believer in capital punishment. He is the head of Texas. It will be hypocritical for him to turn the job over to someone else. He should conduct every execution personally. We forget what the Indians pay their hangman. Something like $20, we're thinking.
So there you go, Governor Perry. $40 for you, which you can hand over to the Texas treasurer to reduce the deficit. You'll have the Editor's vote for sure.
By the way, the word "Terrorist" is quite synonymous with the word "Moron", at least in the case of the terrorists who attacked the Delhi High Court to protest the rejection of the mercy petition for their man. Count the ways.
(a) In many other countries, there would have been no trial. After a confession was tortured out of the accused, he'd have been taken outside and shot. (b) A lot of Indian are arguing the man deserves a commuted sentence because he did not get the best possible defense lawyer. Please note, American friends: not adequate representation as is the rule here, but the best possible representation. (c) Even after the President of India rejected the man's mercy petition, the courts were still trying to save the fellow. Reason? The delay between his 2006 sentencing and the planned 2011 execution. A whole five years, imagine that! Yes, we can hear the guffaws of our American readers. Can you imagine how many death sentences would have to be commuted if Americans thought five years on death row was too long?
Right now, of course, after his best buddies have killed 12 and wounded 80, this man is a dead duck. Particularly since his buddies have promised to bomb the Supreme Court unless his sentence is commuted. We told you" Terrorist = Moron.

0230 GMT September 9, 2011

China claims 271 billionaires up from 130 last year and second to the US's 400. The gentleman who is second on the list runs a company called Wahaha. Appropriate.
If you are asking: is this it for today's update? the answer is yes. We spent one-and-a-half hours looking for something newsworthy and found nothing. That's thirty minutes more than the maximum we'd set for working days, after the fiasco this summer when Editor got a C and a B for his two courses.

0230 GMT September 8, 2011

Fear not America, we are rated as "most cool" It has come to this: we are fading as the world's sole superpower, but the world still rates us as most cool. http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/06/poll_finds_americans_the_coolest
Next time we're in a confrontation with China, we'll simply sing and dance and remind them how cool we are. They will be SO impressed that they will immediately back down. Pardon us while we go back our head against a stone wall or something.
The Brazilians are rated second most cool. Question: how many people actually know a Brazilian? Or is this opinion based on the media image of Brazil and its people?
In his college days Editor knew a Brazilian lady, and she certainly was not cool. She was extremely hot. But then Editor is now an Old Person, and what do us Old People know, especially if we're from Iowa.
The US and Col. Gaddaffi Those who make their living being outraged will have plenty of material in the "revelations" that the US had enlisted the good colonel in the GWOT, and was preparing to help him upgrade his military. The reality is that Libya has oil, the US needs oil, and at some point the US decided to stop demonizing Gaddaffi and to normalize relations with him.
No one in the US was the least bothered that the good colonel ran a brutally repressive regime and had done so for four decades. This is called hypocrisy. which is the currency of international relations. It also like is the currency of inter-personal relations, because mostly these too are based on self-interest and not idealistic notions of what is right and wrong.
Had the Libyan people not decided to rise up against Gaddaffi, we still would be dealing with him, happily and placidly.
Our objection is not that the US one day was dealing with him, making him our BFF, and the next day working to overthrow him. In international relations interests change, the friend of today can be the enemy of tomorrow, and vice versa.
What we object to is the habit of painting America as "holier-than-thou". We know hypocrisy rules, but as ladies and gentlemen we try not to bang people on the head and draw attention to our hypocrisy. This is unseemly.
The UK Telegraph's Matt cartoon for September 8 shows Col. Gaddaffi in an armed pickup in the desert saying "I must leave Libya. I've agreed to appear on Strictly Come Dancing". http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
China Not that this will get Americans to get their act together, we're so cool we need do nothing else, but China's GDP growth in 2010 was 10.4%, and in US dollars its GDP was US$6.27-trillion. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-09/07/c_131114056.htm
Please not that at yuan's real value, which is 25% more than its official value, China's GDP 2011 should be $8-billion, half of the US's. yes, its per capita income with be one-eight of the US's, but remember, for stuff like defense its not per capita that counts but absolute GDP.
Reader Eric Cox on shale oil and other US carbon energy resources Mr. Cox reminds us that shale extraction will use fracking, and not strip mining - we were thinking of the latter, which is an older and now obsolete technique.
Fracking, of course, risks aquifer contamination. The point is that the existence of humans on this planet causes contamination. Compromises have to be made. We believe for strategic reasons the compromise America has chosen regarding its oil - getting a quarter of its needs from desperately unstable regions - is not justifiable.
Mr. Cox also notes that LNG for vehicle fuels and N-power for base load electricity can adequately meet American energy needs. This route reduces our carbon footprint whereas coal/oil increases it.
Mr. Cox is, of course, correct. Again, however, Americans have to start thinking sensibly and in overall terms, not take a single point and push it to the extreme. Do those Americans who oppose fracking for natural gas and N-power stop to think what the oil we get from abroad really costs this country? To blow-off these costs by blandly saying "use alternatives" or "use less" is no solution because the alternatives also have costs, and as for using less, we think that asking Americans to reduce their standard of living is not practical. Of course there is always room for further energy efficiency and this drive continues: in the last 40-years energy use per unit of GDP has fallen by half. But unless we halt population growth - indeed, unless we reverse growth - or reduce the standard of living, there's a limit to how much can be gained from efficiency.
From Eric Cox There is a huge layer of coal that underlies much of the North Central United state and the Western Prairie Provinces. There are many mines in the Powder River Country of Wyoming, where the coal seam is thick and the overburden is relatively thin.
Big open pit mines, with huge cranes and trucks. Unit trains to power plants through the Midwest and Old Northeast. All the mines had to have plans to eventually put the waste back into the holes and plant sagebrush. In the meantime, the USDA was paying ranchers to clear sagebrush from their lands, because it transpired too much groundwater.

0230 GMT September 7, 2011

And the country with the most oil is...No, it isn't Saudi or even Iraq, but the good old USA. Yes, folks, the US has upwards of 12-trillion barrels of oil. No, we did not inadvertently add zeroes. You can read the US Department of Energy report at http://fossil.energy.gov/programs/reserves/npr/Oil_Shale_Resource_Fact_Sheet.pdf US uses 7-billion barrels of oil a year, so that's enough for 1500 years at current levels. With current technology and prices, about 2-trillion barrels is recoverable.
We've talked geology, now lets talk politics. What are the politics of mining that 12-trillion barrels? Frankly, the politics are completely against it. That's because we're talking shale oil, and honestly, there are a lot of people who'd rather have aliens invade and enslave us than touch shale oil.
To recover shale oil, you have to strip mine, and use vast quantities of water. As far as environmentalists are concerned, that's the end of the discussion right there.
To the anti-lot, its perfectly okay for America to get the oil from overseas, because the environmental damage is not being done here. Its also perfectly okay to have the most militaristic foreign and military policy of any country in the world to secure our oil from overseas.
When you talk to environmentalists - and unlike some of our readers we believe environmentalists are honest people if a bit too idealistic for their own good - you will get a whole lot of detail about how we don't need oil, and shouldn't be burning it anyway because of the CO2 issue. But by now it should be clear to anyone that wind, solar, tidal, bio etc energy have their own costs which environmentalists also oppose. Nuclear energy is, of course not to be considered no matter what.
Reducing our standard of living, changing our way of life, and cutting population growth to zero, thus reducing our need for oil are, of course, non-starters.
So if we're going to use oil, and there is no alternative, it make a whole lot of sense to develop our own oil than to rely on other people. Sure, shale oil will be expensive. In a water short west you likely will have to get water from the Pacific, and if it has to be desalinated (we're not clear about this) it'll become more expensive. Restoring the land after it has been stripped will also be expensive. But getting our oil from overseas is also expensive. No one talks about the true cost of the overseas (non-Western hemisphere) oil. very approximately, 5-million barrels/day of our oil comes from outside the hemisphere. As a guess, lets say 20% of our national security/foreign affairs budget is devoted to areas from which we get oil, mainly the Mideast but also Africa, Indonesia etc. The national security/foreign affairs budget approximates a trillion dollars, everything counted including the kitchen sink. So we're spending $200-billion to secure that oil, or $100/barrel. In other words, we are paying a true cost of $200/barrel for non-hemisphere oil.
And that doesn't begin to count the human cost of our involvement in oil production regions overseas.
Isn't it better to spend that $200/barrel at home? At that price we could certainly repair the environmental damage And at least we'd have the benefit of less militarization.

0230 GMT September 6, 2011

Libya media talks of "thousands" of fighters heading for Bin Walid, but we're skeptical. There are at most 100 devoted loyalists in that city. You don't need thousands of fighters especially when Sirte has to be taken.
The problem which the media is now starting to tell us about, but which one wishes was done earlier, is that the new government's fighters at Bin Walid are from the same tribe as the loyalists, and there is understandable reluctance to kill brothers. Further, the besiegers are worried the loyalists will use civilians as human shields and perhaps even massacre civilians if an attack is launched. In purely military terms taking Bin Walid is a cakewalk, especially with NATO's support. But because of the complications mentioned an assault will be absolutely the last thing the besiegers have in mind.
Labor Day Harold Meyerson, a Washington Post columnist, is a liberal, but he had some wise things to say for his Labor Day op-ed. He said that we were told some decades ago that the US was entering a post-industrial economy and we didn't any longer need to make things. We would be a knowledge economy.
Well, the industrial jobs have been shipped overseas, and the US has no particular advantage in the knowledge economy. Countries like India can easily outcompete America in this area. The consequences are depressing: men's wages have fallen by 26% since 1969 in real terms. For some time easy credit enabled Americans to buy and out them under the illusion they were doing well. We know how that ended.
Meyerson says what is required is the reindustrialization of America. Now while he doesn't get into the details of how this is to be achieved, its pretty obvious when one state - China - maintains an unfair trade advantage partly by virtue of currency manipulation but even more so by the subsidies it gives its industries and laws that discriminate against imports, you are not going to get reindustrialization. The whole theory of globalization rests on the assumption that the playing field is level.
But the minute anyone suggests the playing field should be leveled vis-a-vis China, the American corporates jump in screaming and kicking. That's because they make massive profits by importing from China. Remember, this whole thing about the corporates not hiring in America because this is not right and that is not right is a complete farce. American corporates ARE hiring, and ARE making fat profits. The hiring is overseas. if the playing field were leveled, these companies would be hurt. And since they have the money, they buy the political power. So they're going to get their way, and there will be no re-industrialization of America until wages are driven down so low that the Chinese, whose wages keep going up, will no longer be able to compete.
In other words, no recovery is possible till our wages become 3rd World.
A further complication when we talk of the future of America is that we have an aging population, and older people buy less. so now there is a school of thought that says 2.25% GDP growth is probably what we can sustain long term. Since our population grows by 1% a year, we're looking at a per capita growth of 1.25%, which means a doubling of per capita income in 60-years.
In other words, goodbye American dream. Your typical worker has first to make back what he has lost over the last 40 years, and then its going to be 60 years AFTER that to double per capita income. We leave it to readers to figure out what that means for social stability, but here's a hint: the consequences will not be pretty.
America spends a true 6% of GDP on defense when you add everything up like the Coast Guard, CIA, NSA etc etc plus the supplemental appropriations for the wars. With health care taking a greater share of the GDP every year, pretty soon forget about rebuilding America's infrastructure, or paying for schools and police, we won't be able to afford that defense bill either.
Now, no one can possibly argue that we spend the almost $1-trillion on defense efficiently and effectively. But if we are to maintain our world power standing in the decades ahead, the military is going to have to be drastically reshaped. An all-volunteer force will be unaffordable, as will $200-million fighters and $13-million armored fighting vehicles.
You cannot have a situation where in the CIA alone, the paramilitary side devoted to combating al Qaeda is LARGER than global al Qaeda. We are not even talking about the analysts and the intel people working on AQ in the CIA, nor are we talking about the tens of thousands of military personnel involved.

0001 GMT September 5, 2011

Afghanistan La La Land Washington Post says in the first half of this years desertions from the Afghan National Army have run 17%, which is a bit under 3% a month. Needless to say, no one is going to win any war in Afghanistan with figures like that, ten years after US started building a new army.
One reason for the desertion rate is the Opium Smoking Flower Child Hamid Karzai, who has forbidden his army to punish deserters. Now, we don't know for a fact President Karzai is smoking opium, but he has to be utilizing some mood enhancer because in which army, in what year, are deserters NOT been punished? Does anyone think the US Army would last long if soldiers could just roll out of their bunks one morning and say: "darn, I really need to forget this and go home"?
Even more astonishing to us is that the US, which basically runs Afghanistan and pays/trains/feeds/ houses/leads the Afghan Army, has agreed to Flower Child Karzai's dictat. Which then raises the question: are US Afghan leaders, civil and military, enjoying contact highs or are they on their own quota of mood enhancers? Because no one in their right mind would agree to take responsibility for an army with this no-punishment-for-desertion rule.
We - for the 100th time - want the American people to ask a question which they resolutely refuse to ask, and the American people are definitely hooked on mood enhancers, i.e., TV and beer. If Afghanistan the place we want to spend taxpayer money? If after ten years we have a 3% desertion rate, why do we want to give the US military/civilians another three years or 10 years or 20 to straighten things out? When is it going to strike us that we aren't going to straighten out a darn thing in this country?
We have already cited - many times - the US's training foul-up, where (a) after 10 years you don't have an army capable of battling sandal-and-turban clad, AK-47 and RPG toting, pick-up borne Taliban fighters; (b) there is simply no way in which Afghanistan can afford the Army the US has created.
We have already said that while the US military is one of the finest in the world (and in its naval and air components the finest), it suffers from a surfeit of moronic civil and military leaders that can't figure out how to even get out of a paper bag. Methinks we overstate the matter, because this lot of leaders, including the generals we canonize daily, doesn't even know its got a paper bag over its head. But we hear not one word of criticism about the civil/military leaders who have created this mess.
The military has to be a microcosm of society, and of course, the same applies to America as a whole. Americans are among the hardest-working, intelligent, and ingenious people in the world, but we are governed by politicians who know neither how to walk a straight line or chew gum, leave alone do the two things simultaneously; and further, who are wholly corrupt. American workers are second-to-none, but the CEOs and senior management of this country is third-rate. You will not find a media that is as well resourced and composed of as individually intelligent members anywhere in the world, but it is so unable to even explain what's happening in the world that it serves no information purpose. No one is going to tell us that there are better doctors and nurses than you find in America, but we pay twice the GDP per patient as other developed nations and are health outcomes are worse. We have the best teachers anywhere, and yet our students rank in the bottom quarter worldwide. We could go on, but readers will get the point..
What astounds us is that the public, having opted out of universal military service, now treats its military like a priesthood, where the military get the word directly from God, and so cannot be questioned by us mortals. we assuage our guilt at not serving by letting the military do exactly what it pleases.
And when the public stops asking questions, when it stops demanding accountability, you get incompetence. The best example of this is the US military's performance in Afghanistan where (a) you don't have a fighting army, you have an army dedicated to one objective, that of minimizing its own casualties at the cost of everything else, and (b) an army that cannot train the locals.
We say again: time to come home.
Fun and laughter in Afghanistan Afghanistan has become The Land of the Great Yuk. It is so hilarious a country that you just can't stop laughing. The latest example comes from Bill Roggio of Long War Journal (and inventor of the Captain Renault Award http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2011/08/an_interview_with_31.php
Mr. Roggio, intrepid journalist as he is, is in Afghanistan. He tells us that Sabari District of Khost Province has 6t0 policemen and two infantry companies. Given Afghan Army's AWOL/Desertion rate, we doubt that means more than 100 present for duty.
Now Khost is a front-line province in the Afghanistan war, and if 150-175 ineffectives is what the US can show for its 10 years of Khost, we say again: time to come home.
The US army brigade commander in charge of Khost/Patakia provinces says compared to his last tour five years ago, things have improved. Well, if the above force is improvement, we'd hate to think what was happening five years ago.
The brigade commander's comment shows everything that is wrong with the US military today. We are willing to wager that if Mr. Roggio could get this commander to talk off-the-record with a promise not to publish anything, the commander would say anything BUT there has been progress. An Afghanistan district needs a full-strength infantry battalion and twice as many policemen, or say about 2500 personnel, all effective, to perform CI operations and kick out the Taliban. That is, it needs ten times as many as it has got, ten years into the war. The math does not need doing. But this commander has to act peppy, because he is not going to get his next promotion - unless it is to the army unit at Port of Richmond - if he speaks the truth. And which organization can survive if it systematically refuses to let its people speak truth?

0300 GMT September 4, 2011

America and its lost soft power Making an exception to his No-Travel rule, Editor yesterday drove to UNC Chapel Hill and back on the same day. The latest grandkid landed in the infant ICU within minutes of being born (all is well now) and Editor felt he should make the effort to go down.
Editor took I-95 and I-85, and is sorry to say both these routes are in bad shape. You can see first-hand the deterioration of America's infrastructure. I-95 had some nice stretches, newly asphalted, but these were just a few miles in a road that may be compared to your typical Washington DC street. (Hint: do not compare Washington DC streets to the 3rd World, because most 3rd World countries try and keep the capital looking reasonable, at least). We hate to even think of the wear and tear on vehicles using I-95, at least the stretch Editor say between Springfield, VA and Peterboro, VA. The surface of I-85 (Peterboro to Durham NC) did not resemble the surface of the moon as this is a Road Less Travelled, but it was not in good shape. In both cases no one had mowed the sides, rusting guardrails, trash, lane markings with gaps etc. were all too evident.
Now, Editor has reached the advanced age where he no longer cares much about anything (except the usual Saturday night dilemma), so if America doesn't want to maintain its roads, that's fine. He doesn't travel anyway. But Americans do need to realize one thing. When foreigners come to visit, their first shock is the primitive airports. When they come to Washington DC, the next shock is the streets. If they go outside the capital, they're going to get another shock at the state of the roads. They do not get shocked at American crime rates because everyone knows about them. Nowdays they don't get shocked at the beggars in the streets, because everyone knows about them too.
Americans generally do not care what foreigners think of them, and that's fine too. Nonetheless, when you talk to foreigners, you rapidly learn they no longer look up to America as far as the standard of living is concerned. Indeed, Americans now have the reputation of doing only two things better than anyone else, and that is war and Hollywood movies. To the extent Editor at least is getting a bit tetchy at being told by his foreign visitors - mostly Indian but also European and Australia/NZ "Why do you want to live in this country? What is there here that you think its a good place to live?"
Editor has to explain that for practical purposes, America is his country now because his whole family lives here and every single one of them are American citizens by naturalization or birth. In the age of globalization, it's considered okay to have no national loyalty and look for the country that gives you the best deal. But Editor is old fashioned, and for him its not so much "My Country Right or Wrong" as "It may be a dump, it may be going down the tubes, it may be politically more corrupt than any major state, its social and economic indicators might be pathetic, but it's home." You have to believe in something, and okay, so the Editor is a dinosaur, but he believes in America. He believes when we hit bottom, we will again become pragmatic and ditch ideology, and pragmatism is what made this country powerful and great.
But in the meanwhile, to have standing in the world, the ability to make greatly entertaining movies and to kill a wanted terrorist 12,000-km from home by closing a relay may be important, but they are only two of several things that are important. It's the soft power thing, which is as important as the hard power. A country that has the infrastructure the US now has, that can't get its Congress to function, that has the levels of violence we do, that has the unemployment and under-employment we do, plus the political freaks that we seem to throw up, plus the low rankings of our K-12 system, plus the 50% of urban kids who don't graduate, plus the lack of universal health care, and so on and so forth for a hundred more pages, well, such a country has no soft power.
This may not be important to most Americans - and again, that's fine. But what made America the Shining City On The Hill was its soft power as much as its hard power. Americans are so used to being Number One that they cannot even conceive that more and more people are becoming dubious about America's shortcomings.
That doesn't mean they've suddenly fallen in love with China. But if you talk to 3rd Worlders, in Editor's day they all looked up to America. More and more they don't. The developed states, of course, see very little to admire about America. You could put that down to jealousy. No more. You will still find many Euros who admire certain aspects of America, for example, the venture capital system. In the past they would have wanted to live in America. Now they just want to take the good things America has to give them, and go home.
The reason this matters is that when you no longer have soft power, you have to rely more and more on hard power. And that is what America is doing right now. We've been a country that says: "Don't mess with us because we can kill you." That scares people and so they are still, to a great extent, doing what America wants them to do. But we hardly need to point out that this is not sustainable, because as our economic power slips, our military power will slip too. It is also not sustainable because no country can be the Shining City if all it has going for it is the ability to kill you.
Is Editor overstating the case? The poltroons competing for president would certainly say so. They would certainly say: America is the greatest, it will remain the greatest. But they're whistling in the dark.
The esteemed Mrs. Palin There are many good-looking men and women who ruin the effect by speaking. Since Editor does not watch TV, he has never heard Mrs. Palin speak. Yesterday on a radio station he heard this woman screaming and shrieking like a madwoman. Editor thought it must be an audio trailer for some movie about a woman who has gone violently bananas. Wrong. It was Mrs. Palin denouncing Mr. Obama.
And talking about Mr. Obama, we hope he won't mind a bit of advice from Editor. If you want to get reelected, please just strike noble poses, particularly those that show off your profile to advantage. Please, Mr.. President, please: under no circumstances, no matter what the provocation, please just smile and DO NOT SPEAK.
Of course, if you want to lose the election, babble away.
Hint: George Bush the Second did not win election or reelection by speechifying. He just stood there and looked good. Strong. Noble. Decisive. Patriotic. American.

0100 GMT September 3, 2011

Wikileaks: Leaked You couldn't make up this stuff, it's so good. Wikileaks is threatening legal action against the UK Guardian because the newspaper has - er - leaked passwords that could enable people to access unpublished documents. Presumably passwords can be changed in a few seconds. So what exactly does Wikileaks think its doing by suing the media? We have no idea, but we'd like to point out one teeny-weeny thing to Wikileaks. When you steal property, you do not acquire any right or any title over it. The property you stole are documents of the US Government. Claiming you have a right to them and the Guardian has stolen your property is kind of weird.
If Wikileaks says well, the passwords were its property, well, so were the passwords Wikileaks used to access documents belong to American banks the property of said banks.
Either the world has a right to know about the cables, or it doesn't. In no constitution, bill of rights, or religious text do we see anything anointing Wikileaks the God of Leaks.
Is there anyone left who believes Wikileaks is an altruistic venture? If so, this person needs to read http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/sep/02/why-i-had-to-leave-wikileaks The article is by a Wikileaks staffer who did not agree with the organization handing over stashes of uncensored cables to a known anti-Semite who went off to Belarus. After that the Belarus Prez crowed he had documentary evidence the US was funding his enemies. Wikileaks has decided not to bother redacting sensitive information in its new releases: Here's a para from the article:
" These cables contain details of activists, opposition politicians, bloggers in autocratic regimes and their real identities, victims of crime and political coercion, and others driven by conscience to speak to the US government. They should never have had to fear being exposed by a self-proclaimed human rights organisation."
Nice going, Wikileaks. Another blow for freedom, eh?
By now it should be obvious what motivates Wikileaks is a simple, mindless, reflexive hatred of America. Certainly anyone has the right to be against American policies. We ourselves have been/are quite vocal about policies we disagree with. But to be so consumed by bile that Wikileaks harms people who are fighting for democracy just because they happened to be in touch with the biggest, baddest dude in the democracy business, the US, shows serious psychological problems. As Wikileaks and its merrie bande continue their depredations, we are seriously veering to the view that putting Wikileaks into the criminal justice system would be wrong. These people need professional help and medication.
It also says something for the people who support Wikileaks that they follow a man who is a wanted rapist and they think that's fine. And the man is wanted for rape in that socially most liberal of countries, Sweden. The head of the IMF was accused of rape, and the entire world came down on him. The head of Wikileaks is wanted on a warrant for rape (strictly, for investigation into complaints of rape) and no one has a word to say. So if the anti-Americanism of Wikileaks supporters is so extreme that it must override every consideration, we'd like to remind Wikileaks supporters of that old saw: When you sup with devil, use a long spoon.
Solyandra, half-a-bil smackers, and political donors President Obama buddy and friend the billionaire who owns (owned?) this solar panel maker got $500-million+ from you and me. It was part of the Obama green initiative, which has so far absorbed something in the region of $35-billion.
After taking this money as a subsidy to compete against the cheap Chinese dumped solar panels, the company declares Chapter 11.
The whole think stinks, but please note we are not picking on President Obama. Obliging donors is what presidents and Congresspeople do. After all, those handing out hundreds of millions of smackers to GOP presidential candidates and Congresspeople aren't doing so out of altruism. They're just playing the American game of "What am I bid for a Prez or a Congressperson?"
Our complaint is two-fold. First, the company created 1100 jobs partly with that $500-million. Do the math, and that's half-a-million dollars per job created. You could have paid ten times as many construction workers to - say - rebuild some of America's collapsing bridges, and you would at least have gotten rebuilt or new bridges. This way the country gets what? A royal mooning by this billionaire. Its the same old story: the rich gets the benefits of bail-outs, ordinary folks get shafted.
Second, clearly due diligence was not performed and clearly an investigation will be needed. But you see the contradiction: that means more government intervention. If you don't have government intervention, who ever is in power, GOP, Democrat, the Goldfish party, whoever, is simply going to loot the public treasury as Solyandra has done.

0100 GMT September 2, 2011

China confronts Indian warship in Gulf of Tonkin?

Reader Luxembourg forwarded this news from London Financial Times; we accessed it through Times of India ( www.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics/nation/chinese-warship-warns-indian-navy-vessel-in-south-china-sea/articleshow/9824325.cms )
The report says a Chinese warship confronted an Indian naval warship and demanded to know who it was and what was it doing in Chinese water.
The Times of India says: " The Ministry of External Affairs in New Delhi said "the Indian Naval vessel, INS Airavat paid a friendly visit to Vietnam between 19 to 28 July 2011. On July 22, INS Airavat sailed from the Vietnamese port of Nha Trang towards Hai Phong, where it was to make a port call.
"At a distance of 45 nautical miles from the Vietnamese coast in the South China Sea, it was contacted on open radio channel by a caller identifying himself as the 'Chinese Navy' stating that 'you are entering Chinese waters'. No ship or aircraft was visible from INS Airavat, which proceeded on her onward journey as scheduled."
The statement went on to say that "there was no confrontation involving the INS Airavat."
The Chinese have said they have no information and have received no complaint.
The ship is a 5500-ton LST (500 troops or 10 MBTs).
Okay, so the news that China is claiming the South China Sea all the way down the Vietnam coast is no news' China has been doing its mad dog snarling and foaming at the jaws act for some years. We are not sure this is wise, after all, reaction begets counterrreaction, but if China wants to be on bad terms with all its neighbors by making frivolous claims, that is hardly our business. As far as we are concerned, the more enemies China makes the better because US has only one real enemy left in the world, and that is China.
When a India-China confrontation is involved, say when the Chinese calmly stroll into Indian territory and piddle on Indian rocks to establish ownership, India's usual reaction is to deny anything happened. The theory is when the Chinese dog bites the Indian dog's tail, the Indian dog does not complain because it doesn't want any escalation. Escalation would mean - gasp - that India would have to stand up against the Chinese. Vapor attack, please pass the smelling salts.
This denial habit of India creates a problem with reports such as these, because the Indian explanation is not worth a one-paisa coin (hint: there is not such thing as a one-paisa coin, at least not for a few decades, because there is nothing you can buy with that coin since at least 1965 that the Editor recalls).
So it is entirely possible Financial Times London has it wrong, and there was no Chinese warship. But one cannot go by the Indian explanation because on past experience Indian explanations are worthless.
The obvious thing to do is for India to confront any Chinese warship in the Indian Ocean, because by the same logic that the China Seas belong to China, the Indian Ocean belongs to India. Indeed, India has a claim to half of Indo-China and all of Indonesia by Chinese logic.
But is India going to stand up to China? Not in this universe.

2020 GMT September 1, 2011

So Irene visits, power restored in 12-hrs, RCN I-Net goes out before storm even hits and has not been restored. Editor got an RCN dial-up (48 hours lost) but dial-up kept crashing this computer. Youngster loans his spare computer, dial-up crashes it so badly that it cannot be rebooted. Yesterday got fed up, kissed RCN goodbye, got Verizon, this morning Verizon installed service. Meanwhile, thought its time to get a new PC, old one (Generic E-Machines $350) huffing and wheezing considerably). Micro Center gave a nice E-Machines for $250, charged $60 for data-migration; Editor made two 1.5-hr roundtrips Arrived home, not a file to be seen on new computer, Micro Center says the files are in a back-up folder and I have to reinstall them manually. 13,000 files, even if Editor knew how to do the job. So am using old computer and the new computer is parked out of sight. Thank you, Micro Center, I will remember you in my will.

So, while we were away, Earth continued to rotate on its axis, Sun continued to rise and set, and Editor did not get a date. Situation normal.
Libya remains a story only because there's nothing else happening. Gaffy Duck's forces control Sirte, Sabha, and Bin Walid and that's it. Negotiations continue for the peaceful surrender of Sirte, there is allegedly some progress as Saturday deadline for surrender has been extended by a week.
Rebels last heard of 30-km from Bin Walid, but please to appreciate Libya is a big country and its easy to slip away. Even if Gaffy is there, when the rebels reach Bin Walid, he will not be there.
Lots of rumors abound, a 17-year Gaffy bodyguard captured in Tripoli says Gaffy headed off to Sabha before Tripoli fell.
Algerian newspaper says Gaffy is at the Algeria border asking for refuge, says Algerian Prez did not pick up the phone. Mrs. Gaffy #2 plus three of Gaffy's kids were given refuge in Algeria; the new government is asking for their return.
BTW, when the then rebels, now the government, overran Gaffy's compound, they found a house previously occupied by the Gaffy daughter who was supposed to have been killed in the US 1986 bombing. The way Gaffy family members die and are resurrected is uncanny. Unprecedented in recorded history. Saif has been reported killed at least four times; this fourth time the rebels said they buried him but NATO says it has no confirmation he really is dead.
So here we have the rebels, most barely able to hold a gun, and now you have convoys of tanks/tank transporters said arrived around Sirte. The last we checked, a tank is not something that your typical sales clerk, school teacher, unemployed bravo can suddenly appreciate. The equipment is, we guess, from the giant arms depot west of Tripoli that the rebels overran enroute to the capital, there are said to be 150 tanks stored there. So who is operating the armor?

0200 GMT August 27, 2011

Indian Army now world's largest The US DOD's annual report on Chinese military power 2011 gives the PLA's strength as 1.25-million with 17 infantry, 9 armor, 6 mechanized, 3 airborne, 2 amphibious, and 2 artillery divisions (39 total), plus separate brigades. For the first time this put's the PLA's manpower below India's. How much below? An odd thing about India is that no one is quite sure what the army's manpower actually is, but its likely headed north of 1.3-million. India has 36 infantry, mountain, and armored divisions, plus three artillery, plus five CI 'forces' that are the size of divisions (typically 12 large infantry battalions). Under raising are two divisions plus an artillery division, and authorized are one division plus an artillery division.
Pakistan 50 Airborne Division Readers have asked about this formation. Mandeep Singh Bajwa says this is a term being used as a HQ for Pakistan's SSG battalions committed to the counter-insurgency, and there is no airborne division. Moreover, while obviously the SSG are all parachute qualified, Pakistan has no parachute infantry infantry battalions. India has 12 SF and parachute infantry battalions, plus one raising, plus seven parachute qualified reconnaissance battalions for the Tibet border (with a long-range strike battalion raising). India has one parachute brigade HQ, 50th Para Brigade.
Libya The new government of Libya's fighters have control of Gaddaffi's massive compound and its kilometers of tunnels and bunkers. Al Jazeera says TNG now has control of the Abu Salim neighborhood which has been holding out. Currently TNG fighters are surrounding a building in Abu Salim where he is rumored to be hiding with his sons. This means the TNG is tightening control of the capital. The former loyalists and now rebels still control the Tartuk and Salahuddin neighborhoods in south Tripoli, fighting for Tartuk is going on at this time.
While the rebels control Tripoli IAP, the former loyalists and now rebels are firing rockets and artillery at the airport from a village to the East. Snipers are still active in some parts of Tripoli.
Meanwhile, RAF continues its attacks on Sirte. We are supposing some days of air strikes will precede the ground assault. A convoy of 29 trucks sortied from Sirte toward Misrata to the west, and was destroyed by NATO airpower. The intention of the convoy is not known, possibly it intended to create a block against government forces advancing east toward Sirte from Misrata.
Remember, please, that since the Transitional National Government has been recognized by several states and is in control of 90% of Libyan territory, it makes no sense anymore to call them the rebels. We realize this change will be confusing to readers.
Pravda of Russia is referring to TNG fighters as NATO's Islamist terrorists. Dashed clever these NATO chaps. One minute they're fighting the Islamist territories, next moment they've recruited them to fight Arab regimes.
The mystery of the NFL large team rosters is explained by reader Luxembourg. we carry his comment as doubtless foreign readers of this blog are as clueless about American football as the Editor.
"90 players is pre-season roster. After every exhibition game leading up to the regular season cuts are made, til teams start the regular season with 45, plus another 5 on a "development squad". With all the injuries in the NFL by the end of the year the extra 5 usually get used."
American football, of course, has its origins with rugby, but at some point the Americans went off to develop their own game.

0100 GMT August 26, 2011

Loyalist positions in Tripoli reduced to a few blocks Heavy fighting still continuing in Abu Salim neighborhood; some corners of Gaddaffi's compound not yet secure.
A huge cache of civilian supplies has been uncovered; it will help ease Tripoli shortages till external supplies arrive.
Gaddaffi fighters have been executing rebels and opposition people previously in their custody; rebels executing foreign fighters, mainly apparently from Chad.
Gaddaffi whereabouts uncertain; he now wants the women and children of Libya to rise up, and says NATO is losing.
Qatar SF in particular helped plan and execute the attack on Gaddaffi's compound.
Canada provides rebels with mini-UAVs that are <2-kg and easy to operate; rebels say these have been a big help.
Why is a pro-Gaddaffi station being allowed to keep relaying his messages?
Sirte Rebels are halted while they are being organized by UK, French, and East European SF for the final assault. NATO is bombing, and hopes this might persuade Sirte to capitulates, but if neccessary an assault will be made. Sirte is a stronghold of pro-Gaddaffi tribes.
US Navy has so far shot down four Scuds launched from Sirte to Misrata.
NATO may have bombed Shaba. Gaddaffi's birthplace to the south.
Libya oil Though retreating Gaddaffi forces set fire to oil storage tanks at Brega, rebels say there is little damage to the oil production infrastructure and they hope to start exports quickly.
Meanwhile, government's are making available frozen Libyan funds to the Transition National government which is recognized by many countries.
Said that Gaddaffi still has access to $25-billion worth of gold; we're not sure if this is correct because that's about 350-tons of the yellow stuff and we're not clear how he's moving it around.
On Libyan ex-Prez's passport, the spelling of his name is Qatafi. since he took power 41 years ago, there has never been an agreement on how his name is spelt and there are at least 3-dozen versions, we are told. This passport thing should put the controversy to rest.
A question on American football as Editor sat on the couch today, contemplating his usual sorry state of affairs, the only thing he could find at hand to read was the WashPo Sports section. So we're sure many of you out there are reading addicts: when the urge strikes, you have to read, even if its the telephone directory. So Editor learned the Redskins and Ravens each have ~90 players on the roster. Given there are 11 people on a team, why this 8x redundancy?
Funniest joke at some British jokefest The award went to: "I needed eight characters for a password so I chose Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs." And then people say Editor has no life. The one Editor sort of liked was: "My friend and I were playing chess. He said lets do something interesting. So we stopped playing."
US Ballistic Missile Defense In case you're wondering what's happening, Aviation Week says that the Boeing Mid_Course Interceptor failed two tests against complex targets after its last success in December 2008, due to problems with the fancy Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle. A new test is planned for next year.
Meanwhile, Aegis/Standard 3 IB is ready for testing.
Meanwhile, THAAD will have its first test against multiple tests soon when a single launcher and single radar will take on two targets.
We were very impressed to learn US industry is delivering two - count 'em, two - THAAD missiles a month and this fall will deliver four THAAD missile a month. One can scarcely stand the excitement. A $15-trillion economy and 4 SAM/ABM missiles a month. One assumes to deliver six a month will require the US to institute nation-wide rationing. Plus almost one long-range interceptor test a year! This is going so fast we might even have a defense before the 25th Century. Useless bunch of people all, and we're paying $8-$10 billion a year for this freak show?
You have to have at least a test each month for each of these systems to get some solid progress. And you deploy what you can, upgrading as your capability improves. You don't wait till you have a perfect system because (a) you will never have a perfect system; (b) the threat becomes more complex each year.
A planet made of diamond? Reader Luxembourg forwards an article http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/25/us-planet-diamond-idUSTRE77O69A20110825 which says astronomers have found a planet likely made of diamond in a tight orbit around a neutron star 4000-light-years away. The planet is the size of Jupiter, but is made of carbon, and highly compressed carbon is, voila, you have the biggest diamond known.
Given the size of the universe, its a given that a lot of very weird things are going to turn up as our instruments get better and better.
A planet made of chocolate would be more to the point, Editor thinks.

0230 GMT August 25, 2011

As Brother Leader wanders the desert with his moth-eaten tent and spavined camel. he may well be contemplating a question that Jonah asked a lot, and Editor asks every Saturday evening: why me, Lord? Why me? After all, what exactly is it Brother Leader did? His people demonstrated, he killed a few hundred, and for that he must now wander the desert? It doesn't seem fair. Take Iran, for example, or Saudi Arabia, or China, or North Korea. They don't kill demonstrators in the few hundreds because they are so well organized, you can't get much of a demonstration going. And then there's Syria, where the death toll has climbed above 2000.
So basically, Brother Leader has been punished because he wasn't efficiently repressive. Is that fair? Well, truthfully it isn't. Then, Brother Leader may be asking, why did the west pick on me? After all, the man paid compensation for Lockerbie, and the west, including very much the US, had been kissy-facing with Brother Leader, he'd welcomed them to Libya to invest, and then of a sudden - disaster. So why did the west pick on Gaddaffi?
The answer lies in that wonderful American phrase, "because it could". No other reason, any more than a bully picks on Joe and not Moe. The bully feels like picking on Joe, and he can, so he does.
Time-out here. We're not standing up for Brother Leader. We'd made clear Orbat.com wants the world's tyrannies overthrown, starting with the biggest tyranny of them all, China. Saying "oh, but its too hard", as the west is saying re. Syria, is not an excuse. If you claim to be a moral nation, as the US does, then hard or easy doesn't enter into it. So are we seriously saying the west should, like, attack China?
Obviously not. But the west is betraying every one of its values not just by refusing to deal with China, but by making money off it. You do what you can, and with China there should be no trade, no diplomatic, academic, cultural exchanges. The American establishment has a very clever answer to what we have just said. The way to change China, says the American establishment, is to engage with it. Okay, so why are we not engaging Libya, North Korea, or Cuba?
We once heard an American "expert" say that engaging with China was okay because China will change; engaging Cuba is not okay because Cuba will never change. Really? Have you tried engaging with Cuba the way you are engaging with China? Did you remove the embargo, stop your attempts to overthrow the regime, give visas so Cubans, seek to invest money in Cuba - all without saying a word about the Cuban political system?
The simple reality is America bullies Cuba because it can. Cuba's got nothing much of what we want. Sure, normalizing trade with Cuba will boost US exports by a couple of billion dollars a year, and provide a source of very cheap labor, worth maybe a couple of billion dollars a year. But beyond that, there's nothing.
We wont even discuss the irony of American companies "engaging" China, which has then proceeded to knock the stuffing out of American companies back home, because we're talking politics, not economics.
The American part of Editor says "West, well done on kicking Gaddaffi out of power." But the Third World part of Editor says "West, you all are the biggest bunch of hypocrites and bullies that have walked the earth."
Russian Progress cargo launch fails and Russia has ground the launcher/space craft till the cause can be discerned. This launch was for 3-tons of cargo destination ISS but the same combination carries cosmonauts to the ISS (Progress is a derivative of Soyuz, which is the manner capsule).
This is not supposed to cause a crisis on the ISS because a Euro vehicle is supposed to be next in line for a supply run and a Japanese vehicle is also available. Nonetheless, the operational missions for the remainder of this year are all Russian, so one hopes the Russian launchers come back on line soon. Two Soyuz craft are docked at the ISS and can evacuate the crew in case of an emergency.
US, of course, in what has become its typical happy, slappy style of functioning gave no thought to the Russian launcher getting messed up. If an emergency happens, the best the US can do is to sit around and suck its thumb, since we shut down the Shuttle program before we had a replacement. Great planning, America.

0230 GMT August 24, 2011

The Old Buzzard is still alive A TV station broadcast a radio speech by him saying his withdrawal from his compound was a tactical move, and he vows death or victory. Since victory is looking a bit unlikely at this point, perhaps the Old Buzzard can do everyone a favor and fall on his sword. No word on where he is.
a couple of Scud missiles were fired from Sirte, one headed for Misrata was shot down by a NATO fighter. We don't know if this is a second shoot-down of a Scud because yesterday a similar event was reported. Rebels have indicated that these launches are prejudicing their willingness to discuss Sirte's peaceful surrender. The town, if of course, a Gaddaffi stronghold, but honestly, it's really hard to see what Sirte can do to save its native son.
Meanwhile the 'rats' have been romping around Gaddaffi's compound, including invading his bedroom with one rebel making off with a military hat Gaddaffi used to wear. There's a lot of arms and ammunition in the compound, and the rebels have been bust carrying stuff away. One man had three rifles; he explained he couldn't shoot but the rifles were for his friends.
Rebel leader says 400 died in the Tripoli fighting, unclear if this is the rebels only. Six hundred Gaddaffi fighters have been made prisoner. Contrary to all the reports of fierce fighting, just as has happened everywhere in the last week, the compound's defenders did not put up much of a fight. There is some speculation that the rebel government (now the regular government one supposes as many countries have recognized it, so Gaddaffi is the rebel) had negotiated in advance the surrender of Gaddaffi fighters.
Okay, NATO, a good job - sort of NATO did finally get its act together; word is the Qataris decided they had to step in on the ground to organize/aid the rebels, and this, plus UK/French Special Forces providing guidance for air strikes, made the difference.
We'd like to point out that if you study the history of war, there comes in every conflict an inflexion point, after which one side just collapses even though it might still have large armies left. People decide the game is not worth the candle (or is it the other way around) and decide to call it quits. No one can really tell when that inflexion point is reached. Frankly, Gaddaffi has put up much more of a fight than we thought he could, but a large part of that was the extreme weakness of the rebels. To us its a mystery as to what happened to the 60,000 army troops who early on decided they didn't want to fight for the regime. We thought okay, NATO will get these men organized, provide weapons and air support, and the show will be over. Instead the fighting has been done by complete amateurs. Looks like the soldiers didn't want to fight for anyone and simply went home.
New York prosecutors ask judge to drop Strauss-Khan case The woman's lawyers have said the prosecutors have willfully ignored the forensic evidence. They have done no such thing. Strauss-Khan admitted a sexual encounter took place. Was it consensual or not? The forensic evidence did not support assault. That doesn't mean the woman was not assaulted. But after that it becomes a matter of how truthful she's been. And when all was said and done, as the NY prosecutors said, she lied in "things great and small".
Her lawyers say she has been robbed of the chance of having her day in court. Earth to defense lawyers: the court system is not a forum for you to pressure the accused into a big civil settlement. A woman cannot just say "I was raped", and then turn out to be a liar about just everything she has said not only about the alleged assault, but her entire life in the US. The accused has rights too.
The situation is very simple: everyone, whether a feminist or not, whether an advocate for women or not, jumped on Strauss Khan and labeled him guilty before they knew a single detail. At Orbat.com we know what goes on in hotels, and it was not at all clear to us from Day 1 that the woman had been assaulted. The dismissal of this case is a crushing blow for everyone who advocates for women, not because she is denied her day in court as her lawyers say, but because everyone decided the man was guilty simply because a woman accused him. It is those who blindly supported the accuser who have hurt the cause of women.
Now - and please do correct us on this - we are told that in 17th through most of the 19th Century America if a woman alleged assault, her word was automatically accepted. The reasoning was that the stigma of being assaulted and then talking about it was so great that no woman would claim assault if hadn't happened.
But how can this apply today?
Incidentally, we reject the thesis put forward by some that Strauss-Khan did not pay the maid for services rendered and she got angry. Why should he NOT pay her? The man pays for $5000 a night escorts, why should he refuse to pay a couple of hundred dollars?
We completely accept the man is an A-Grade lecher. Yes, he tried to force himself on his daughter's close friend. And yes, he had affairs with women. The women were, of course, all innocent as the day is long, they felt "pressured" to accept because they worried about their careers. They are victims.
You know what? Editor is an ancient person and has done his time around women. You absolutely cannot, 110% cannot, force a woman to have an affair with you if she doesn't want to. She fears for her job? So all of us who fear for our job should tamely do something wrong and then claim we are victims? Rubbish. What's happened to personal responsibility? These women had affairs with him because they thought he could help them. Its a straight trade of sex for favors, it's 100% legal, and it isn't anyone's darn beeswax except that of the people concerned and their spouses. BTW, men have started playing this game too as women are increasingly in positions of power.
We find this exceedingly weird. Feminism/women's liberation and so on was supposed to empower women so they could take their place alongside men as true equals, on their own merit and their own abilities. But someone we've ended up making woman helpless victims of everything that happens to them if there's a man involved.
If women really are that liable to be victimized, then the men who said women must be sheltered and protected because they are the weaker sex (and used this as an excuse to exercise dominion over women) were absolutely correct. Is this this what some women want?
And the idea that the state is there to provide restitution for every wrong done by another individual - not just to women but to everyone - is crazy beyond imagining. More on this another day.
And as for Mr. Strauss-Khan, may we suggest, sir, that you keep you-know-what carefully zipped? You now have a giant bulls-eye painted on you. Women adventurers will be out to get you. Not all will be as devoid of credibility as your New York accuser. And please, learn some manners, won't you? Or is the way your mother brought you up to treat women? Ultimately, truthfully, the thing that annoys Editor most about Mr. Strauss-Khan is that he is a boor. He's giving men a bad name, and with everything else against us in these fevered times, we don't need Mr. Strauss-Khan.

0001 GMT, August 23, 2011

Libya Gaddaffi is either in Tripoli, or in Sirte, or in the southern village he was born, or on the Algerian border, or already in exile. Its a bit odd that three of his sons are detained, and the Khamis, otherwise known as 9 Lives Khamis because he has been reported dead so many times, is said to be likely dead along with the loyalist intelligence chief, but there is no sign of the Old Buzzard.
In Tripoli, at the last minute some tanks made a counter sortie from the Old Buzzard's compound and snipers were holding up rebels in parts of the center. Otherwise resistance seems to be dying down. The tanks shouldn't be a problem for long: once they're out of hiding they can be attacked.
ENI of Italy has already sent its personnel back to examine the state of the oil facilities. The new government of Libya says oil leases will be given to those who helped, that means the bad, bad, bad Russians and Chinese get nothing. We're willing to bet the Chinese are not exactly weeping: when they land up with suitcases full of $$$$, the new government's mind will change.
Rick Perry Wears French Cuffs No, this is not the title of a movie about middle school. The Man Who Would Be Prez and claims to be a Texan actually wears French cuffs. And Armani suits. We are striking him off our Must Invite For Tea List. If the man is so clueless he doesn't understand he should be wearing Freedom Cuffs, he is not someone whose acquaintance we want to cultivate. Next thing you know the press will reveal he wears Chanel lace panties and used to dress up in his sister's clothes when he was a kid. Good Grief.
(Please to notice the subtle use of the Perry agitprop style: at random moments, throw out a character-smearing taunt, and then quickly withdraw from the scene.)
American companies want tax credits for creating jobs at home But an increasing number of them are refusing to tell shareholder or the public how many jobs they've shipped overseas. There's an allegation that IBM, for example, has more Indian employees than American employees. Well, Editor is from India and on one level he's fine with that. But if Editor's taxes are used to help IBM "create" American jobs after it has shipped as many as possible overseas, Editor is going to have to protest. Of course, in America in the Year of our Lord 2011, this kind of insanity is quite the norm.
India to raise new strike corps against China? Hindustan Times says so, and identifies the corps HQ as Panagarh, West Bengal. It further says 23 Division (Ranchi) will go under the corps.
Our South Asia correspondent Mandeep Singh Bajwa says that while there are many plans, including a strike corps for Eastern command, its too early to take this as a done deal. And the Indian press is notorious for getting things wrong on defense.
Meanwhile, Mandeep says plans for a number of new China front independent brigades are proceeding. These include an armored brigade for Ladakh, a infantry brigade for Ladakh, a mountain brigade for the middle sector, a light armored brigade for Sikkim, and possibly a fifth brigade.
We've made this point before: China is a sovereign nation and if it wants to throw its weight around against India, that's right. But what exactly has China gained by its super-aggressive posture. we're already looking at two new divisions raised for Eastern Command, two under raising for Northern Command, two more planned for a strike corps for Eastern, plus 4-5 independent brigades. and this is just the start, by the way.
With Indian forces facing China already increasing by 75% compared to the low point in the 1990s and 2000s, when India thought it had a deal to start demilitarizing the Tibet border, what precisely does Beijing think it has gained? We'd love to know.
And the interesting point is that while India is responding to Chinese aggressiveness, this buildup is NOT defensive. Its intended, for the first time in half-a-century, to give India a solid offensive posture against China. This is because India has concluded the only thing China understands is the big stick.
So for no reason at all except false ago, China has created a problem for itself along its Southwest border where between 1970-2000 tensions were reducing. The Chinese government may think it is being cunningly clever with regard to India. Its being astonishingly foolish.
Also, BTW, India's GDP devoted to defense remains at 2% despite massive increases in the last five years. India has lots of room to spend much more on defense.
Indian fighter contract already on verge of death? This is the original Light Combat Aircraft competition which magically became the Medium multi Role Combat Aircraft, of which the Rafale and Typhoon remain as the finalists. Now Ajai Shukla of Broadsword http://ajaishukla.blogspot.com says that the contract is about to fall apart. Why?
Well, because the $10-billion that the Indian government was willing to pay was for a lighter plane back in 2000. With inflation, and the heavier plane, its likely the cost will be north of $20-billion for life-cycle costs. But even that may not be all. Mr.. Shukla notes that Rafale has quoted Brazil $10-billion for just 36 Rafales, 30-year life cycle, after severe beatings up by Brazil government - the French wanted more. On the same basis, the Indian contract could go north of $30-billion.
In either case, says Mr. Shukla, India MOD will cancel, and start the bidding all over again. That all these years have passed and not one plane has entered service is, of course, of no concern to the Indian MOD.

August 22, 2011

Al Jazeera is reported to have said Gaddaffi's security brigade has surrender. We have not seen this news on Al Jazz itself . http://blogs.aljazeera.net/liveblog/Libya

Libya as is to be expected, situation is confused. as nearly as we can determine from the media: (a) the Tajoura neighborhood in Tripoli, which has been a center of resistance since the start of the uprising, seems to now be entirely in rebel hands with loyalist forces ejected. Fashloom neighborhood said to be in rebel hands. (b) A rebel column consisting of a couple of hundred fighters has entered the city from the west and says it has taken Green Square, 8 km from the center. British SkyNews reporters say there was no resistance and the rebels were greeted by the residents, This column jumped forward from Zawiyah. It captured Khamis Brigade's barracks 22-km west of Tripoli and gained large stores of weapons. The rebels had to withdraw from a town called Maya 13-km west of the barracks due to heavy loyalist fire, but then NATO entered the fighting. We presume that put an end to the loyalists else rebels would not have been been to advance into Tripoli because of the risk to the rear. BBC reports rebels as saying they are 2-km from the city center. (c) Other fronts saw no change.
The western reports of little opposition to the rebels contrasts with Libyan government announcements that 1700 have been killed in the fighting on Saturday and Sunday. The point of saying that when eyewitnesses talk of little opposition escapes us.
BBC Reports rebels as saying they have captured Saif, the second Gaddaffi son, and who has been the public face of the regime during the uprising. al Jazeera says the first son, Mohammad, has surrendered.
NATO led by Al-Qaeda says the loyalist government. We don't know what to make of this complete loss of control over the narrative. The government started out by saying the rebels were actually AQ, in a reflexive and not very intelligent bid to get sympathy from the west. The implication was the the enemies of NATO were creating trouble in Libya. But now these enemies apparently are leading NATO. Okay, so who is supposed to get impressed by this? The American and European people? What are they supposed to do? Attack their governments for letting themselves being led by AQ? why not just say aliens are leading NATO? There's more chance of that than that of AQ leading NATO.
Every second sentence issued by the government contradicts the one previous. Thus, the 'rats' are being defeated left and right all over Libya, which is in the control of the government, but Gaddaffi will not leave Tripoli and will fight to the end. So if the 'rats' are fleeing, why this talk of making a last stand in Tripoli?
Its not even clear The Old Buzzard is in Tripoli. His announcements for several days have been released as voice recordings and not as TV appearances.
These reports render incorrect our analysis that the capture of Tripoli would take time. Now, you are going to see the usual back-and-forth unless Gaddaffi's inner circle has given up the fight. So several days or weeks could pass without a resolution. Nonetheless, we did not expect the rebels to enter Tripoli so rapidly and easily, even with NATO air support. As nearly as we can tell, only 200 Gaddaffi forces remained to protect the western approaches to the city. We'd estimated there would be at least a thousand.
Nonetheless, if Gaddaffi's sons are surrendering or being captured, we can't see this thing will go on for much longer.
Indian Kashmir: 'Huge cache' of arms recovered says Times of India. The 'huge cache' turns out be 1 AK-47, 156 rounds, two under-barrel grenade launchers and 20 grenades, four mortar rounds, 400 grams of explosive "powder", one hand grenade, and a radio. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Militant-hideout-busted-in-JK/articleshow/9686871.cms
This report underlines the sloppiness of the global media, who seem to have a few templates into which they seek to arrange the facts, sparing them of the need to think. The western media's favorite template when referring to Afghanistan, for example, is that any time anything bad happens, it is a 'setback'. In Libya, the western media even reported the loss of a UAV as a 'setback'. At this rate in another 10-years if an army soldier loses his entrenching tool the media will call it a 'setback'.
The Indians are particularly fond of the phrase 'huge cache'. If one AK-47 is a 'huge cache', then are 10 AK-47s a 'major arms depot'?

August 21, 2011

Tripoli uprising Rebels attacked loyalists in parts of Tripoli last night including an attempt to wrest control of an airbase, but by the early hours of the morning fighting seems to have died down. These rebels have been lying low and have been receiving smuggled weapons; our estimate is there are several hundred effectives. The rebels say several loyalist soldiers and officers have fled, and that theya re coordinating their attack with NATO, which is distracting the loyalists with bombing attacks.
Let's see what happens now. It's possible some of the Old Buzzard's men have decided the show is over, but we don't see Tripoli suddenly rising up against him, ending the war. he does have his supporters, and they're in Tripoli.
In Brega loyalist forces including a T-72 tank mounted a counteroffensive, pushing rebels to the eastern part of the city. NATO destroyed the tank. rebels speak of a British Forward Air Controller who has been seen around the place; he seems to have called the strike. If the locals see one man, there are at least five others with him who haven't been spotted.
In Zawiyah, loyalists have been firing mortars and rockets at the rebels from a town 10-km east of the town; this appears to be harassing fire. Apaches have been supporting the rebels in the city, this will make it very hard for the loyalists to regain lost ground as attack helicopters are particularly suited for urban warfare.
Petrol from Zawiyah refinery has begun reach rebel areas; this is from stocks, the refinery was shut down some days ago, but so far reports indicate it is not damaged.
Infiltrators killed in North Kashmir Because of the completion of the border fence, and reduced activity in Pakistan Kashmir, the number of successful infiltrators so far this year has been zero. We were, therefore, a bit surprised to learn of a party of 12 that was intercepted trying to cross into Indian Kashmir in the Gurais sector. India says it killed six for the loss of one officer, and the other six fell into the Kishenganga River. India opines that because of the current and depth the six could not have survived, but one should be cautious about making these statements in the absence of bodies.
In a normal country this infiltration attempt would have led to a punishing strike against Pakistan. This being India, all that will happen is another big yawn and a passive sit back and wait for the next attempt. For all its military strength, which is very considerable, there is zero interface between the military and political aspects of national security. at all costs the political side does not want an escalation, and there is quite a bit of the higher military leadership that would agree. In 1999 Pakistan openly attacked India in North Kashmir. India would not even cross the Line of Control as a tactical move to make it easier to push back the invasion, it was so terrified of being accused of escalation, let alone punish Pakistan for the attack. the country is ruled by poltroons and wimps, and as far as Editor is concerned, the sooner this generation of leaders dies and the younger generation takes over, the better.

August 20, 2011

Twitter from Reader CR: #$%@blather.com Raining today but birdbath not filling up. What would Noah do?

(Reader CR saved us from having to publish our Fake Twitter post today; it was definitely, shall we say - koff koff - unsuitable for a family blog)

Libya Rebels say they have control of Zlitan, west of Misurata, after heavy fighting. Rebels have been blocked at Zilitan for several weeks. They say their columns have reached Al-Khums, 50-km west of Zlitan. Al Khums is 110-km from Tripoli. We'd suggest readers consider the coast territory between Zlitan and Al Khums in play. What remains of 32 Libyan Brigade, the best in the army, still has the capability to push the rebels back to Zlitan. But our assessment, for whatever its worth, is that loyalists have lost Zlitan for good.
Rebels have also taken Sabratha, 80-km from Tripoli. Readers may know this as a heritage site for Roman ruins, many in good condition. Damage to the monuments was light and the rebels say they will protect the ruins from looters. The Guardian story says a Libyan from the UK who came back to fight a month ago took down the loyalist flag: this volunteer is quite typical of the rebels, and helps explain why, until NATO got its bombing act together, nothing much was happening. The rebels were stalled in the town for three days until NATO attacked loyalist positions and finished off the loyalists.
We have been exceptionally critical of NATO/US's pathetic performance in Libya, but at least now NATO has shown it can take away a lollipop from a crippled 100-year man in a wheelchair - previously NATO couldn't even do that. So good show, 62-years after the formation of NATO it looks as if it will actually win a tiny war with the US. Once this is done, can we disband NATO, please? Whatever NATO has done, the EU can do, and if the Canadians and Americans feel like joining in, they can under bilateral agreements
Afghanistan 2024? UK Telegraph says US and Afghanistan negotiating a US presence till "at least" 2024. This would include trainers, special forces, and airpower. and could run to 25,000 troops.
This agreement, if it happens, will not make Pakistan or the Taliban happy. Readers can anticipate a renewal of fighting on the part of Afghan and Pakistan Taliban if the agreement comes off.
Aside from simply not wanting to go, and there is a huge section of the US national security establishment that does not want to leave because the war has not been won, we do not see what the US rationale for remaining is. The Taliban have never been a threat to the US, and as a Russian has said, when 150,000 foreign troops couldn't secure Afghanistan, 25,000 will certainly not succeed. Given the passivity of the American public regarding defense and foreign commitments, we do not anticipate a 25,000 strong contingent will arouse the least opposition domestically.

August 19, 2011

201108190100Z If an unobserved tree falls in the forest does it make a sound? No. You do, if it falls on you

Palestinians attack Israelis near Eilat, killing eight. In turn the Israelis and Egyptians killed 7 of the 15-20 attackers. Hamas denied responsibility, but a splinter group said it had staged the attack. Israel struck at Gaza from the air, killing six, including the head of the splinter group.
Palestinians fired two Grad rockets in retaliation for the raid; one was shot down by a newly arrived Iron Dome unit.
http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/coordinated-attacks-in-south-kill-8-1.379428
President Obama calls for Syria's Assad to step down Probably the most meaningless bit of news you will hear in a while.
US Bradley IFV replacement to cost $13-million Look no further to understand why the US military cannot survive if expenditures are reduced to cut the budget deficit. It will be said this is a program cost, not a unit cost. Fair enough, and since only the very first orders have been placed, the program cost will go up as time goes by. So what is the next US tank going to cost - $25-million current dollars?
Obama vacation: enough is enough Anyone is entitled to a vacation, even the Prez. Going to Martha's Vineyard sends a wrong message because the resort town is identified with wealth and privilege? So where do people want the Prez to go? To a homeless shelter in Chicago?
In general we object to the vast sums of money spent to transport and protect US presidents. Let them fly coach is what we say. But the Americans have their own system, treating their presidents like monarchs. Its not clear to us if Mr. Obama said, "okay, me and mine are going to camp in a national park and see you when we get back", that he would be allowed to do anything of the sort.
If you don't take a break from your job, your productivity falls. You get less work done, not more. That's why everyone needs a vacation.
(Except Editor. Since he has no life, he may as well work. Anyway, after all these years of working straight through the year, he'll likely have a mental breakdown if forced to take a vacation.)

August 18, 2011

201108180100Z Drink water 2 lose weight diet helping navel gazing: stomach now so large navel 6" from face

Indian-Russian T-50 5th Generation Fighter Is it our imagination or is this much anticipated new aircraft a clone of the F-22? http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/17/new-fighter-jet-to-bolster-russian-air-force/?hpt=hp_c2
Anti-corruption protests sweeping India and about time too. Every single person who lives in India is at effect of corruption, small and large, and the Indian people are only saying they won't take it any more.
Government has been strangely ham-handed in its treatment of the protest leader, Anna Hazare. It demanded from him a promise he would not do a fast-unto-death, which is a standard Indian protest tactics (and once in a while when the the government refuses to give someone actually dies). You cannot ask for a no "fast-unto-death" pledge - it is Anna Hazare's right to stage such a protest.
But Anna Hazare is wrong when he says he will not leave prison until his demands are met. He was bundled away when he refused to stop his protests; when his arrest set off even more protest, he was released, and he refused to leave jail. The Indian criminal justice system has no provision for keeping people who been have bailed out or set free for an hour more than administratively neccessary. the Government should simply dump Anna Hazare outside the jail gate and be done with.
The disagreement is on the mandate of a new, proposed, strengthened anti-corruption commissioner. The government wants to leave the Prime Minister and the judiciary out of the scope of the bill, fearing - correctly - that frivolous lawsuits in great numbers will be brought against the PM by political opponents.
In the US, for example, presidential corruption is the province of Congress, and there is a case for leaving the Indian PM's office out of the new law. As for judicial corruption, we are sorry to say that is also a very big problem.
The problem here is that Anna Hazare is hardly a saint. Like everyone else since before and after Joan of Arc, he is as lustful of power as are the people he accuses.
Still, this is beside the point. His motives are not relevant. What is relevant is he has successfully mobilized millions of people behind him who want change.
Yet another example of how China and India really are different, and if adherence to the rule of law means India grows two percent a year slower than China, one suspects few Indians - especially the poor who suffer the most from corruption - are going to object.
Letter to Editor re Twitter Dear Editor, when I suggested an Orbat Twitter feed I meant a focus on national security and not your disgusting slobby anti-social male habits. Please stop your Twitter feed NOW.
Editor's response Coo. Harsh. Very harsh.
Letter on Mr. Obama's reelection chances from reader Luxembourg.
The Sun King is very beatable, even landslidable. National public opinion polls don't matter in a presidential election, the 50 state polls, the Electoral College do. Obama is OVER 50% disapprove in Ohio and Pennsylvania and if he loses those 2 states he's toast. States he carried in the Kool-Aid induced high last time he wont, Virginia, NC, Fla. Mich (all elected GOP Govs and legislatures), plus Quinnipiac has him over 50% disapprove in heavily Dem NY state. The inside the beltway thinking that Caesar is untouchable is way wrong, people have heard it all and tuned him out.
Dont forget the "Wilder effect" as well. Former Virginia Gov Doug Wilder (1st African American Gov in the rebel capitol) always over performed in public opinion polls and underperformed at the ballot box. People tell pollsters "yay' for Obama so they don't think they are racists, then vote differently in the solitude of the voting booth.
Perry hit the ground running, isn't scared of the media and has been Chief Executive of a small country, he knows what hes doing. The establishment DC GOP hates him, another rube/hick from Texicas. Used to be a Democrat, switched parties like Reagan did. Watch the DC GOP jump on Romney now.
Letter on Mr. Rick Perry from J. Freemon. Perry is right out of Loony Tunes. He supports putting US Military forces into Mexico to fight the drug cartels. Do we really need to invade Mexico?
http://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/state-politics/20101119-Perry-backs-sending-U-S-5391.ece
Letter on Mr. Rick Perry from Name Withheld By Request Mr. Perry would make an excellent president for the New America. His state is among the lowest in the country for social indicators like education, children and adults in poverty, people without health insurance, and wages barely above poverty level, which you know is set quite unrealistically low. His "job creation" consists of stealing jobs from other states with the promise to side with the employers, low wages, and low regulation which helps employers exploit labor.
Since the rest of America will soon look like Texas, Mr. Perry is the ideal candidate.

August 17, 2011

A friend insists Editor start writing on Twitter. Since editor has no clue how to get on Twitter, nor can he use even his cell phone because he has Fat Finger Syndrome, he has developed a Fake Twitter which he will present from time to time.

201108170100Z Deeply significant day Burped 4X scratched stomach 6X sneezed 8X tickled ear canal with Qtips 10x meaning of life still eludes

Chinese 101st Engineer Regiment on maneuvers in Pakistan Kashmir says Defense News. This is supposedly the first time Chinese troops have exercised with Pakistani troops, but we doubt this report is correct.
From our political analyst Till now I have agreed with your assessment that Mr. Obama is unassailable for 2012 because of the loopiness of the GOP candidates. The entry of Governor Rick Perry (a former conservative Democrat who became a Republican in 1988) into the race may completely change things. Stay tuned.
Libya fires a Scud that explodes harmlessly A western source says off-record that a line has been crossed because a WMD has been used. Information for said source: a Scud missile is not a WMD. It can be equipped with a WMD warhead; on its own, its just a missile with an explosive warhead. Any long range rocket or missile can be equipped with a WMD warhead, but each time US or NATO drops 500-kg or 1000-kg bombs in Libya or Afghanistan we do not say a WMD is being used.
UK riot sentences Two men who used Facebook to urge people to destroy their towns were given 4-years each; neither has a previous conviction. One university gentleman got six months for stealing a premium bottle of water, another gentleman with "at least" 12 previous convictions was given 2-years for preparing to loot cigarettes from a store, A lady, age 31, with 62 previous convictions given 10-months suspended for two years for trying to haul away $800 worth of alcohol, cigarettes, and tobacco. Phew. Haven't they heard of three strikes in England? We're against the extra harsh US sentences, but if there ever was a life without parole case its this lady. Enough is enough. she needs to be off the street, for good, not because she's killed anyone, but because she's beyond redemption. 10-months suspended? As the Brits say, you've got to be joking.
Some Brits demur, noting a double standard: when the Members of Parliament expense accounts scandal was on, the consequences were light. Sure. But the MPs weren't rousing people and setting times and meeting places to gather to burn down towns.

August 16, 2011

Libya Rebels said they captured Garyan, south of Tripoli. If correct, the Reuters report would imply Tripoli is encircled. But as we said yesterday - and lots of times earlier - let's see if the rebels hold their positions. They're better off now than previously because NATO now provides systematic air support. But the rebels really are a rag tag bunch - enthusiastic as anything, and very quick to break under fire, and to make a run for the rear after 5-10 casualties.
British policing - America to the rescue America's own Super Top Cop, William Bratton (NYPD, LAPD), has been enlisted by the British Prime Minister as an advisor on reforming the "Met" as Londoners call the Metropolitan police force. Much to our surprise, he is being touted to take over the Met. Well, you can imagine America's reaction if the head of the Met (now resigned because of the Murdoch scandal) was brought over to take over New York PD.
So this is creating quite a fuss in England. The Home Secretary has firmly said no foreigners can apply, which is reasonable, after all. Mr. Bratton says he's willing to take British citizenship if neccessary. We're a bit old fashioned at Orbat.com and think this is not right. Citizenship is not something to be taken up and given up for a job. Its different if you emigrate to a new country for good and then look for a job.
Mr. Bratton's critics, of whom there are many (nothing personal, but the Brits are unhappy about a foreigner landing up on their shores as a special pet of the Prime Minister and then issuing the Bratton's Blue Book on Policing) ask a simple question. Los Angeles had 157 gang murders and London had 13 last year, LA has half the population of London. So what exactly is Mr. B supposed to teach the Brits? They also point to LA's 400 major gangs, and many times that of minor gangs, to say if Mr. B is so great, why hasn't he sorted LA out. aside from which the ethos, rules, etc of the Met are completely different from those of a major US police force.
His defenders say exactly, LA is possibly the toughest western city for gangs, so Mr. B has better experience than anyone else, and he has brought the gangs under control.
India and $2-trillion GDP A reader writes to say he is unsure where Mr. Swaminathan Aiyer, the respected Indian economic writer, got the figure for a $2-trillion GDP. Our reader says the figure will hit $2-trillion in 2012, but we are between $1.7- and $1.8-trillion right now. Comments, people?
Minot-based B-52 lands in Russia for the Moscow air show. Is this the first time that a US bomber has legally arrived in Russia after the end of the Second World War?
Over-engineering can be a good thing Remember the plucky Mars rover Opportunity? The little guy arrived on Mars 2008 and was expected to last 90-days. He has lasted ten times as long, and in that time has travelled 15-km to the edge of a crater scientists hope will yield spectacular information. And there's plans after that to send him on another 15-km hike, assuming he's still going.
Curiosity, the $2.5-billion follow-on Mars rover, will be launched at year's end for an August 2012 landing. This one's the size of a compact car. We're not in favor of these mega-all-in-one shots because there's too much at stake and too much can go wrong. Same money would have yielded five $500-million shots. Possibly in the end these would have yielded less science, but at least we don't have to lower the flag and declare days of national mourning if one or even two don't make it.
US loses Hypersonic Test Vehicle again This was test Number 2, test 1 failed in 2010. This one dropped contact as it entered its glide phase.
Speculation is the program will be cancelled. These days research dollars are at a premium, but still, we think cancellation will be bad. You need these completely-off-the-wall ideas that if they work give you a huge technology jump. Only $300-million has been spent so far.
On a blog someone had the cute speculation that now DARPA can declare the project a failure, return it to the black world, and quietly roll-out the real Global Rapid Strike Vehicle or whatever.
Israelis invent data-rape drug sensor Drop it into your drink and it will beep or flash lights or whiz up the nose of the would-be-date-raper and disable him by making him sneeze non-stop till he can be hauled off to the slammer. (We made that last part up, the beeping and flashing may be actually part of the finished product.) We think this is a great idea, date-rape is one of those extra-slimey crimes and its hard to prove because the drugs wash out of the system very fast and befuddle your memory. Editor is all set to buy this sensor for his self-protection - oh, wait, he forgets, he has to get a date first.

August 15, 2011

Happy birthday, India.

Now lets see if the rebels can hold Zawiyah They've taken this town 50-km west of Tripoli, there's still some shooting going on. This is the same town that hung on for weeks and weeks after its residents revolted against Tripoli (twice). If the rebels can hold the place, then Tripoli supply lines to everywhere are cut. Rebels are also fighting for two towns between Zahiyah and the Tunisia border. NATO airpower and - we think - British AH-64s played a role in the rapid rebel advance from the south
In the east rebels have entered Brega (for what - the fifth or sixth time?). This oil city stretches 15-km along the Mediterranean coast so entering Brega and taking Brega are two different things.
IF all these gains are secured by the rebels, we will start seeing articles about how the easy part is done and how Gaffy can hold Tripoli forever. Can he? Well, the place is packed with his supporters, a lot of whom are genuinely worried about what will happen to them if Tripoli falls. Gaffy probably outnumbers rebel forces by at least three to one, as well as having the advantage of being entrenched in an urban area. Not good for the rebels.
On the other hand, Gaffy's top dogs will have to start doing some elementary math with simple equations, as in "on the one hand" and "on the other hand". Right now that equation is balanced so doing nothing is probably the preferred option for the top dogs.
George Soros wants Greece and Portugal to leave the Eurozone and the Euro and frankly, we think the man is making sense. Sure, the lenders will lose a great deal of money, but if Europe is going to run its game to keep the lenders secured while everyone else croaks, the place is going to end up like the US, where the lenders control the White House and Congress.
We'd like to know where in the Good Book (or any other book) does it say the money given by lenders is sacred and must be returned before anything else? The lenders take a risk when they lend money. If they make bad decisions or encounter bad luck, they must take their lumps like everyone else. As for the argument that if the lenders don't get their money back they won't lend and the world economy will collapse, ha ha ha, someone has a sense of humor. There is so much money in the world today that there is absolutely no shortage of capital. You could cut lending by half a trillion or even a trillion and there will still be money chasing investments. So there won't be money for risky investments, but isn't that a good thing? Isn't risky investments guaranteed by governments the reason we're in this mess?
We are told by someone who knows that back in the day, the Jews, who were savvy enough to accumulate money to lend and the go-to people for funds, forgave all debts every fifty years. well, it didn't stop them from getting massacred every time some emperor didn't want to pay back what he'd borrowed, but ethically this is a sensible idea. If you insist on getting blood from coal, as the US housing lenders are, you will get nothing back except coal.
[By the way, we read since housing lenders refuse to take a loss on the mortgages they have extended, unless they relent, 11-million homes - one in five - in the US will be foreclosed. That's the number of houses underwater, i.e., owing more than the houses are worth. we were told by Someone Who Knows said to us that don't be fooled by the balance sheets of American banks, because a lot of those balance sheets are STILL not worth toilet paper. This is because they are carrying these mortgages which will never be paid at full value. Talk about fiction. We thanked the person who told us this, and immediately called our broker telling him to cancel our planned buy of $10-billion worth of bank shares.
In any case the Someone Who Knows said the banks will not accept IOUs written in pencil on paper recovered from the trash bin. They want real money. At which point we went ha ha ha, but our pencil-on-trash-paper IOU is worth a lot more than the "real" money of our country today. Our IOU is at least a promise. US Government on the other hand is simply printing money without a promise. (If you believe that business of "I promise" written on bank notes, you are very deep in Alice's Wonderland. Come back to the light! Come back before it's too late!)].

August 14, 2011

Workers wages in Shanghai 61% of Alabama says Reuters, adjusting for productivity. Shanghai is China's most expensive area for labor costs, and Alabama is among the very lowest in the states. A couple more years of double-digit Chinese wage increases, and the equation should start looking good for Alabama. in other words, at least one US area will have sunk low enough that it can compete for jobs with China's highest cost area.
In one sense this is quite frightening, because it shows how fast US is sinking. But if you look at is as part of the creative destructive inherent in capitalism, this simply a part of the rebalancing that will take place as China grows richer and we, by comparison, grow poorer. Jobs have already started to return to the US because for some firms the hassles of doing business in China now outweigh the fast narrowing wage differential.
Nonetheless, Reuters notes that firms could either shift to the interior of China, where wages are much lower, or moved to Vietnam, where the wages are really low. Though of course there are problems in both places, this means that a wholesale relocation of jobs to the US is about to take place. For that we need another ten years, by which time Chinese wages should increase by at least three times, and the yuan will also rise.
No consolation to our brothers and sisters in working class America, but try and hang in there people. You'll have jobs even if what you can buy with the jobs will be little. Give it another 20-years, and we should be okay: jobs, plus a rise in living standards as China and India just keep growing.
India hits $2-trillion GDP we learn from India Abroad, giving a per capita income of $1700. Very impressive. we wish only that the Government would get efficient about providing the poorest Indians with minimum food, water, health, and education support. This would not be a handout or welfare. It would simply be a device allowing the down-trodden to stand on their own feet and become productive workers and consumers.
(Ah the joys of capitalism. Back in feudal times we were all slaves except for the top 1-5%, today we're still all slaves but we have some choice of which employer will enslave us. Though these days, not so much choice..)
Just a thought Editor is not trying to push anything, he's simply saying what he thinks, and if other disagree, that's fine, they have every right to. These days everyone - yes, even the Republicans when they are not acting crazy to impress their constituents - realizes that in America we have a very serious demand problem. 9-million lost their jobs since the start of the Great Recession, and America needs to add at least a million jobs a year to take care of its population growth. Your average consumer is beaten down with debt, scared out of his mind he'll lose his job tomorrow - if he has one, and has no faith in his government. So even if he does have money, he's not spending it. And truthfully, most ordinary folks don't have money. The debt overhang in the good old US of A will take seven years to work down, so if you're waiting for a revival of consumer demand, try 2018.
Okay, so Editor agrees that reducing government spending at this point will further suppress demand and so on. No argument from the Editor.
His point is quite simple: everyone agrees that when the government spends 100 cents for every 60 it takes in taxes, this is not sustainable. Everyone agrees that if our children are to have a future, major reductions in everything including defense, foreign aid, food inspection, and so on, big or small, have to be effected. It's no longer viable to say "ooooh, we can't cut defense because it will weaken America," or "oooh, we can't cut food safety because we'll be eating our meat bulked with dead rats", or "ooooh, we can't ration health care". America, you blew it, now we all have to pay, except for the well-off, we all must do with less.
Since we have to cut, isn't it better to get started right away than put off the day we do start? Because it will never be the right time to start cutting. You know it, I know it, everyone knows it. It's simply human nature. When we were running false surpluses in Bill Clinton's time, did we start paying down the debt? No, we cut taxes - and honestly, Editor is not interested if the Dems did it or the Reps did it or the Martians did it. We're talking human nature, not ideology. When 9/11 happened, we should have raised taxes. It was human nature to close our eyes, spend more, and hope it all came out okay, so we didn't.
Despite the likely bad outcomes for tens of millions if we start cutting spending now, we must start right away or we'll never get started.

Rant Time

Today Washington Post had an editorial devoted to the 15-years sentence the American gentleman in Cuba received - we discussed this the other day. WashPo railed and ranted against government of Cuba, saying the gentleman would be in prison "indefinitely". Good thing Editor did not have WashPo's editorial writers as his math students, or they would be writing on the board - indefinitely "15 years is not indefinitely" Now, WashPo wasn't saying the gentleman is innocent, it just didn't see what was the big about what he did, which basically was to aid the US Government in Washington's attempt to overthrow the Castros, but let's ignore that.
Below that editorial was another, about the Norfolk Four. You can read details at http://www.norfolkfour.com/ but we'll give the Cliff Notes version. The Norfolk Four were four sailors accused and convicted of raping and murdering a woman. They maintained they did not do it, no DNA evidence was found, the detective who kept after them to confess was later found guilty of tampering with evidence and other nasty thing. That didn't matter to the august State of Virginia, where boy we are so tough, if you're think of violating the law, we'll learn you very quick that was the biggest mistake of your life. These men went to jail in 1997.
Well, around 2000 another man who was in prison said he did the deed, and the men were innocent. And indeed, his DNA was matched to that at the crime scene.
Now, please get this, readers. It took the State of Virginia nine years to grant conditional pardons to these men for a crime where another said he was guilty and the state had the proof this was so. One of the four was released after 8 1/2 years, before this conditional pardon. The governor refused him a pardon, and the conditional meant that the men were still convicts and sex offenders with all the happiness that implies in our society.
The other day a court overturned the conviction of one of the men, so aside from having his life ruined, he is now free. The State of Virginia is so generous that it has announced it will not seek a retrial.
Now, we want to ask the Washington Post one thing. You admit the American gentleman in Cuba broke Cuban law, and you argue it was so minor he should have gotten a slap on the wrist and an escort to the airport. But right next to you is an American state whose police railroaded four innocent men to jail, where they would have spent most of their lives, had another man altogether not confessed. Even then the State of Virginia took nine years - the men were in jail all this time - to release them. Even then it refused to give a conditional pardon to one of the men.
And now we are told that the three men whose convictions were not overturned may never get them overturned because Virginia has a statute of limitations on filing appeals against convictions, no matter that the clock was run out by the same State of Virginia that kept the men in jail for nine more years.
This is our question to the WashPo. You protest the wrong (according to you) done by the Cubans to an American who you admit broke the law. But for four young American sailors, all you have is words to the tune of justice is being done and the State of Virginia did wrong.
Why are you, dear WashPo, not calling for the arrest, trial and hailing of all the people who were responsible for this travesty of justice including the various governor's of Virginia who served during those 11 years. Why are you not calling for Amnesty International, the UN Human Rights Commissioner, the EU Commission on Human Rights and so on, to investigate this case?
Because like everyone else in this blighted city, the Capital of the Free World, you are hypocrites from beginning to end. When you tolerate cases like the Norfolk Four, and brush it off with a cheap editorial, you have no moral right whatsoever to talk about how any other country handles its criminal justice system. It is not that Cuba has trashed its credibility - the American gentleman will be bargained for and will be released in exchange for some Cuban prisoner - it is you, WashPo, that has trashed its own credibility by even putting the Norfolk Four editorial with one on Cuba,
To our readers we say: think this couldn't happen to you? Well, four young men from the US Navy probably never imagined it could happen to them. In America we have justice, don't we?
We are happy to say just because WashPo lives in a moral sewer doesn't mean the citizens of Virginia are without shame. A quote from a press release put out by the defendants' lawyers:"A distinguished, bipartisan group of Virginians supported clemency for the Norfolk Four including: several former Attorneys General of the Commonwealth of Virginia; 31 former FBI Special Agents; a past president of The Virginia Bar Association; prominent state and federal law enforcement officers; former judges and prosecutors from around the country; and 13 jurors in two of the underlying criminal cases."
By the way, scroll down to the end of the press release and you'll see who the lawyers were: three top flight law firms who worked for free. Folks, you'd better hope next time you get whacked in the State of Virginia for a crime you didn't do, that top East Coast law firms will defend you free of charge. Else you can just spend the rest of your life rotting in jail.

August 13, 2011

Newsweek cover on Ms. Michelle Bachman So everyone is worked up about a Newsweek cover in which the editor, Ms. Tina Brown (yes, if you read women's magazines THAT Tina Brown), the Republican candidate's picture has been Photoshopped to make her eyes look crazy and a subtitle The Queen of Rage (or something) added.
Truthfully, now folks, when Editor saw that cover he couldn't at all figure out what was crazy about Ms. Bachman's eyes. That's the way teachers look at the mid-point of the teaching day - all teachers, every day. So seeing The Look twenty times a day, Editor can hardly be expected to comment on Ms. Bachman and The Look.
But this is not the reason Editor is mentioning the cover. He learns that apparently when Ms. Palin was photoshopped by Newsweek wearing shorty running shorts and holding a few electronic devices, she got angry and went on about sexism.
Well, at the time Editor had no idea Ms. Palin had said that, because frankly, and man who listens to Ms. Palin as opposed to - shall we say - closely examining her is no man. Does Ms. Palin honestly think people pay attention to her because of her brains? And if you are blessed with good looks, what is wrong with people appreciating you for your good looks? How is that sexist. Do people honestly think - assuming you could run for Prez at age 16 and people could vote at 10 - that if Moppet Justin Beiber ran for Prez his constituency would be shrieking "he is so smart!" Come on, Ms. Palin, lighten up. Editor would be happy to trade bodies with you and become a sex object. At least he wouldn't have to worry dates on Saturday night, especially not in Takoma Park Maryland.
(In case you're wondering about the Justin for Prez thing, Editor has no clue as to who women consider hot these days - probably Alfred E, Neumann because he is so not sexually threatening. He knows Moppet Justin is hot because his students tell him so all the time. The other day Editor made a huge bo bo: he told his girl students that Taylor Swift needed to put on some weight, seeing as her legs are about as thick as the Editor's wrists. First the girls gaped. Then they consolingly patted him. "There, there, Mr. R., its been so long you had a date you don't know any more what a real woman looks like.")
Theatre of the absurd From UK Telegraph: "On Friday morning, Mr Mohamed logged on at his cubicle at 100 Seneca Street in Buffalo, New York. As the state transportation department's compliance officer for region five, he checked that 12 per cent of the money being spent on the new highway 219 was going to ethnic minority firms."
Mr. Mohamed was till the other day Prime Minister of Somalia till he lost his job in some kerfuffle or the other. So he decided to head home, to Buffalo, New York.
The Saturday Night Live possibilities are endless. "Hey, Mohamed, good to see you back, man. Where were you last weekend? "I was running Somalia, that's where I was last weekend."
This truly is an Only in America story. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/somalia/8698917/Somalias-former-prime-minister-returns-to-job-at-the-New-York-transportation-department.html
Col. Gaddaffi actually made a good joke the other day Reader Luxembourg sent a link where Gaffy accused the British government of using Irish and Scottish mercenaries to suppress the riots, and demanded Mr. Cameron, the British PM, go as he had lost legitimacy.
BTW, if you have time, read the UK Telegraph's cartoonist Matt. Editor thinks he's screamingly funny because he has these truly absurd punch lines delivered in a calm manner. For example, there's two officials leaving the US Treasury and one says: "The reason I'm so calm is I actually don't know how many zeroes there are in a trillion" http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/?cc=8610075 Another one has two British housewives in front of a store, with one irratedly saying to the other: "Coffee? When I got your text to meet you here I thought we'd be looting!" http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/?cartoon=8690259&cc=8676353 Yet another has two bikini-clad bimbos walking by a sign saying "Italian Debt Crisis", and one says to the other "Its so serious Berlusconi has invited economists to his villa this weekend." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/?cartoon=8680602&cc=8676353 and one last one: An Earthman arrives on an alien planet and tells the aliens "I'm from Earth and we need to borrow a lot of money." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/?cartoon=8661273&cc=8610075 Naturally just the pounch line of a cartoon without the cartoon is not all that hilarious, so take a look.
Forgiving the enemy The Indian media has been talking about a Pakistan Air Force pilot who apologized for shooting down a civilian Beechcraft during the 1965 War killing, several civilians and the pilot. The main civilian was the Chief Minister (same as American governor) of the state of Gujarat. The pilot was an Indian Air Force officer, and the Pakistani officer contacted the Indian officer's daughter, 46 years later. You can read the story at http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/No-bitterness-or-hatred-IAF-mans-daughter-to-Pak-pilot-who-killed-her-father/articleshow/9567814.cms very touching and all that, Editor is a sucker for these heartwarming stories of redemption and forgiveness.
What caught our eye was that Jagan Pillarisetti was reported to be the person who had put the Pakistani officer and the Indian officer's daughter. We know Jagan as one of the very few real historians on the Indian Air Force (we should very few period, since Indians are inexcusably indifferent to their history) so we write a brief note of congratulations. He wrote back:
My contribution was relatively minor. Mrs Engineer (the pilot's wife) was a good friend of mine and it was just natural that I had to pass that request on.
While civilian shoot downs are rare, we should remember that this happened in the middle of a full blown air war. It was the ad-hocism on our side that allowed the aircraft to be so forward in a battle area, without the nearby Jamnagar airfield being notified. (This airfield is a major Indian base in Gujarat).
As Qais (the Pakistan officer) has written, the decision to shoot came from the controllers. There is a theory that the controllers did not grasp the situation well - some may have actually thought it was a larger C-119 based on the initial description. The rationale is that the Pakistanis thought we were sending civilian aircraft on recce sorties. We didn't need to - we had a great Canberra PR squadron to do such tasks. I can only assume the PAF thought so because that is what they would have done so. Which was natural due to the shortage of aircraft at their end - notice the impressments of Pakistani civilian aircraft in the 1971 war for military purposes).
Qais' rookie status may not have helped in questioning the orders.
But yes it did bring closure to Mrs Engineer. When she contacted me five to six years ago, she had only vague details of the last moments of the flight, some of them downright inaccurate. It is small consolation to actually know what happened. Credit should go to Kaiser Tufail for writing that article in the first place. (Kasier Tufail is a colorful former PAF fighter pilot.
Jagan makes his home in the US, and Editor had to write back mildly reprimanding him for his modesty. Editor had to explain Jagan will never become a true American unless he aggressively pushes himself. If you've been brought up under the English system, if you say "my contribution was relatively minor", everyone knows you are being modest. In America if say your contribution was relatively minor, your audience says: "everyone self-advertises, so if this feller is saying his contribution is relatively minor in reality he must have done nothing at all."
From Anthony Garcia Regarding your statement "People who are Little People can also be Republicans, so since the governor was hurting the Little People, one would think the LP Republicans would vote against the targeted GOP senators."
I have to say I don't understand the 'little' people voting patterns. Where I live there is considerable poverty yet many of those impoverished people vote against their own interests. What I find interesting about voting patterns is that many little people vote like they stand to gain somehow. It seems to me that 'little' people often vote without understanding where things fit in the bigger picture. As an example there was a big brouha about the 'death tax' with many saying that their inheritance is at stake. The sad fact however is that the inheritance tax only applies to estates over $5 million. How many people do you suppose are inheriting $5 million? Same thing with taxes ... a poll was publicized yesterday (or was it the day before) stating that people favor increasing taxes on the wealthy (undefined AFAIK but presumably in a mid 6-figure bracket) yet it's interesting how many people on the lower end of the totem pole think otherwise. I know some of these people and I think somehow in their deluded minds they think they will be that taxed person.

August 12, 2011

West's plans for Libya Reader JK says: "The following is fairly self-explanatory. It is of course, a continuation of neocon interventionism, itself a re-ideation and extension of Great Power intervention in the ME. Interesting that Obama should be following the neocon blueprint. As to the execution and success of such efforts, no comment."
Iraq haunts plans for post-Gaddafi Libya

"Western governments have helped prepare a blueprint for a post-Gaddafi Libya that would retain much of the regime's security infrastructure to avoid an Iraq-style collapse into anarchy.

The 70-page plan, obtained by London's The Times, charts the first months after the fall of the Gaddafi regime. The document was drawn up by the National Transition Council in Benghazi with Western help.
Officials say the blueprint draws on lessons from the disastrous regime change in Iraq in 2003 and the rebel takeover in eastern Libya in March.
The plans are highly reliant on the defection of parts of the Gaddafi security apparatus to the rebels after his overthrow. This is likely to prove not only risky, but controversial, with many rebel fighters determined to sweep away all vestiges of the regime."
Another example of the triumph of hope over experience. The last time the US, at least, was able to impose its will on a foreign country was Japan/Germany. We'd do well to remember the two countries surrendered unconditionally. as the Israelis will tell us, victory doesn't mean anything unless the other fellow is willing to lie down and admit he's dead. The Palestinians refuse to do this, the consequences for Israel are too apparent to require comment.
Mach 20 UAV ready for second try That speed puts you halfway around the world in 30-minutes. The first try failed in March, 2010, reader Luxembourg writes. After 7-minutes the vehicle became unstable and destroyed itself. a useful gadget to drop bombs on dictators and other bad people when time is short.
We read the good old U-2 is to be phased out 2015 and replaced with a UAV, Global Hawk RQ-4 Fair enough, why risk pilots when you don't have to. Readers of a certain age with remember Gary Powers, lost over Russia, and Rudolf Anderson, lost over Cuba during missile crisis. In the case of Powers, US did not know about the SAM-2s capabilities and was caught by surprise. US knew USSR was putting SAM-2s in Cuba to protect its missiles, but because of the urgency, the U-2s had to fly anyway and one was lost. Very oddly. no other U-2s were shot down despite continuing to overfly danger spots for several more years. We have to assume the ECM suite became sophisticated enough to handle Soviet SAM threats.
What we don't understand is that Defensenews.com says the UAV is going to cost $35,000/hour to fly vs $31,000 for the U-2. shouldn't the UAV be a lot cheaper to fly? http://defensenews.com/story.php?i=7359220&c=AME&s=AIR
Surprisingly a source says the Global Hawk's sensors will never meet requirement. Wonder what happened here.
ROC carrier killer SSM has been revealed at the same time as the Chinese test carrier (the former Russian Varyag) put to see for the first time. The Taiwan missile is a ramjet, which indicates it will fly at multiples of Mach speed. ROC is also allegedly working on, or may have already deployed, a land-attack cruise for use against China.
Wisconsin recall elections We were a bit surprised to learn only two of six Republicans target for recall in a referendum lost. Given the immense anger in the state over the governor's union bashing and the history of the state as pro-labor, we thought 3-4 Republicans might be recalled. Some are saying "oh well, that was taking on Republicans in their strongholds, so even two is good," but we find this explanation a bit dubious. People who are Little People can also be Republicans, so since the governor was hurting the Little People, one would think the LP Republicans would vote against the targeted GOP senators. Others say the financial crisis distracted voters. perhaps, but again more reason to go vote to recall Republicans. On August 16 two Democrats are targeted for recall, so lets see what happens.
England sentences for rioters First, congratulations to the English criminal justice system: a week is not up since the first riots broke out, but already 240 rioters have been tried and sentences. The disappointing thing is that half of those sentenced are back on the streets because of their age, albeit with what the English call "referral orders", which are a mixture of community work and behavior intervention. The best behavior intervention is the Singapore system, where you get caned, and the punishment results in such excruciating pain Singapore has a low crime rate. (Of course in Singapore you also get hanged if you fire a gun in the commission of a crime - doesn't matter you didn't hit anyone, the reasoning is if you had a gun, and were prepared to fire it, it was just plain luck that someone did not get killed.)
The Singapore system is regularly denounced as barbaric, including our good friends Amnesty International. So sending youths to prison in America is not barbaric? Saddling taxpayers with the costs is not barbaric?
Incidentally, in Singapore women cannot be caned, and canning is delivery as an additional punishment for most serious crimes.
One thing editor as a teacher gets sick of hearing: "Don't hit children because they will grow up thinking its okay to hit others." This is supposed to avoid increasing violence in the world. In Editor's day as a Young Person, the fear alone of corporal punishment was enough to make kids behave. Further, nowadays we don't paddle kids in school (with isolated exceptions), and we discourage parents from whacking their kids (whacking as in corporal punishment, not offing them - Editor will agree that should remain illegal). We'd like someone to prove this has brought down violence.

0230 GMT August 11, 2011

Taliban who shot down US Chinook dead says US military. A leader and the shooter were identified and an air strike obliterated them.
This is the absolute stupidest thing we have ever heard of, Two punished for the loss of 36 Americans? No, no, and no. This is absolutely wrong. We spoke of the need for revenge. This is not revenge. This is equivalent to the Editor yesterday trapping a wasp in house and tossing him outside, unharmed. Thirty six American died, we need a lot more Taliban dead, we need to see their bodies, and we need to see their heads on stakes with American troops using them as dartboards. Anything short of that is Wussy League.
To the Editor this episode shows once again how sick in the head this country is. Americans are very happy to kill at long-range. The nation (not the soldiers) is unwilling to get blood on its figurative hands. Death has to be dealt in sanitized, video-game fashion. If this is what America calls being "warriors", then all it proves is how out of touch with reality the country is.
The men on the ground would have been happy to do the bodies-and-heads-on-stakes thing. They would immediately have been arrested, and ended up with 7-20 years hard time in a military prison, for violating the rights of enemy combatants. A society that makes up these weird rules, but has no compunction about delivering death-by-smart-bomb, is totally sick.
There is the question of justice. Did Editor suffer when that helicopter was shot down? Did Jane Q. Public suffer? Not one little bit. Even the return of the bodies to Delaware was done in secrecy. for what? To protect the dignity of our dead? Just another cheap excuse by the politicians. Those bodies should have taken by road to their home towns with stops at every town on the way, just to show America what they sent our soldiers to do so that we could continue with beer, sports TV, and chips. The US Government wanted the return to be as secretive as possible so that people didn't get worked up, either to demand revenge or to demand the politicians explain. It had nothing to do with the dignity of the dead. It was save-the-sick-behinds of the politicians and military brass. it is not for me and you to tell the soldiers they should exact no revenge. It is for us to tell them, 'what do you want to do?'. And if they say they want revenge, we should get out of their way.
On the 50th anniversary of the Bolshevik Revolution, the Soviets planned a super spectacular, very high risk mission where two spacecraft would be launched and the lone crewman from one transfer to join the two-crew ship of the second. First, the Soviets did not have the capability to do such a mission, second, the lone crewman who was to transfer was sent up in a vehicle that was known to be unflyable, to the point it had 3000 faults, including no backup radios to ensure the craft could safely rendezvous is the radio went down, which the radio did. Since there was no question of rendezvous, the second crew was not sent up, condemning the lone astronaut to a doubly certain death, the first time being he was sent up to begin with in an unflyable vehicle.
Well, to cut the long story short, the astronaut who took off in the doomed spacecraft knew he was doomed before he took off, and mission control was getting his cries of rage at being sent to die just because of a stupid anniversary till he impacted at high speed. (The parachutes failed too.)
Now say what you like about the Russians, when they held the dead man's lying in state for his state funeral, he was in an open casket. All that forensics could identify of him was a piece of his heel bone. You can find the picture on the web, and you can see for yourself that never in a hundred years would you guess what's lying in the coffin is a human body. Everything was burned black and fused together so you'd think you're looking at a chunk of metallic space debris.
The Soviets did not flinch: the man had died - futilely - for the Motherland, and they gave him a state funeral where no attempt was made to whitewash the reality of what was left of him.
In America, the so-called free country, they call bodies "remains", which puts one in mind of something smashed up and needing to be thrown away without disturbing the rest of the party and the Americans think this is respectful. And the Americans call coffins "transfer cases". The justification would be, well, the remains are in a transfer case from where they will be shifted to a coffin. There are actually people in America paid to come up with this drivel, all in the name of "respect" to our soldiers.
Pardon us, but we think secret arrivals of "remains" in "transfer cases" has to be the greatest insult to out soldiers. But of course, neither does out government have any shame, nor do we want to hold it accountable - don't wanna miss the game on TV, you know.
Reader Richard Haslock adds another dimension to the English riots of which we were only vaguely aware.
"I’m not sure that the UK police are being ‘wimps’ as such. They are actually playing a clever game with a relatively new government that is giving contradictory instructions. The police are accused of using excessive force and as the link above illustrates the last time they got ‘heavy’ in a a demonstration someone was killed and the police involved are being prosecuted. This hardly encourages the remainder of the force to put themselves at risk this time round. Furthermore the government is cutting their budget and making them feel rather un-appreciated so once again they are not likely to put maximum effort into quelling the riots. This is a test of intent, either the government and wider society let the police off the leash and get on with repressing the rioters, or they cut budgets and prosecute officers for use of force – we cannot have both at the same time."
Mr. Haslock also pointed out UK police have used water cannon in Northern Ireland but the intent was to create a space between the mobs and their target, which could be "enemy" territory, or even the law enforcement authorities themselves. In these riots the youth are seeking to hit and run with the loot. So neither weapon would be of much utility. as for baton rounds as the British call them, good old rubber and plastic bullets, these are permitted only in self defense.
Editor should point out another aspect of this. A large number of police deployed are auxiliaries called up for the emergency. In all fairness, you can't expect auxiliaries that may have been used to issue tickets, mediate in domestic disputes and so on to get all armored up and go whooping into the crowd to bust heads. That's our American police, bless their souls.
And talking of our police, reader Luxembourg writes to say he has a friend who is a tactical officer in Chicago, and their philosophy when outnumbered and surrounded is to attack in all directions. As Mr. Haslock would say, this cannot be done in England.

0230 GMT August 10, 2011

Of late Editor has been frustrated and then alarmed because he is making so many typing mistakes. He's not a touch typist: two fingers and staring at the keyboard is his style. Editor was convinced he had a fatal brain tumor or something and pondered with the idea of writing a moving farewell statement while he could. Yesterday someone was leaning over his shoulder watching him type. Editor complained about the huge number of errors he's making. The person said: "Maybe that's because you type by sight and 16 of your 26 alphabet keys have been erased clean from all the typing you do." Editor looked at his keyboard, and lo, it was true. Editor was so happy he wasn't going to die he went and had another chocolate. Now of course you are going to say: But you look at the keyboard several hours a day as you type, and you didnt notice the letters were gone?" Er, no. That's the thing with being dyslexic. Editor was "seeing" the letters in his head. But when so many adjacent letters are wiped out, its hard to be sure you've hit the right key to begin with. Does that make sense?

0230 GMT August 10, 2011

So the little kiddies have been at it in London and other English cities, committing arson and looting. A group of young ladies aged 14 or thereabout were interviewed and when asked why they were doing this, said (a) to have a little bit of fun, and (b) to show the rich that the rich don't have the power, the rioters have the poor. (Explanation: in England "little bit" means whacking great amounts of fun.
Now, Editor is very fond of young people; he teaches them and may be they even learn something useful. (One former student the Editor met said Editor was the best teacher because teacher's Real Lessons for Real Life had really helped him succeed. He especially mentioned one RLFRL #3, "To succeed in life always bear up people smaller than yourself." This was a very proud moment for Editor. He quite choked up.)
So what follows its not a diatribe against young people. It's a diatribe against uneducated young people, to which category the English riot girls apparently belong.
If the kids are rioting to have a little bit of fun, Editor will shake his head but he will not condemn the kids. The essence of being young is the freedom to do wild, stupid, rash things that get you into trouble. In Editor's case he has remained, like Mr. Robert Zimmerman, Forever Young, because here he is practical a great grand pa and he still wild, stupid, and rash things that get him into trouble. But enough about me...
So these kids are being stupid, and they'll pay the price, but that's fine, because they had fun being stupid.
The part where Editor wants to say "assume the position" and delivery twelve of the best is when these young ladies want to show the rich the rich don't have power, the rioters do.
So: are we to understand that the thousands of small stores that have been vandalized, looted, and burned are run by rich people? No, dum dums, they are run by the same people with whom you share the community. They are you, 20-40 years on. They work their butts off to survive. By attacking their stores, you are attacking your stores. There is an inelegant expression in America (all Americans expressions are inelegant, that's why they're so much fun) about not going potty on your own doorstep. Going potty on your own doorstep is Pure Stupid.
Next, so you all have attacked a few big stores. Take that you capitalist bloodsuckers, you. Except the capitalist bloodsuckers are insured, so they'll get their money back. The people that will suffer are your own people, ordinary people with perhaps few prospects because of tough economic times, who were keeping their noses clean and working hard as employees of these stores.
Pure genius: attack the working class and show the rich you have the power. The rich must be laughing themselves silly.
Back to the riots Last night London was relatively calm due to a turnout of 16,000 police. But trouble in other cities continues, albeit on a much smaller scale. Two points we'd like to make.
You have to be a little slow if you're going to riot in London. We forgot what someone told us, but it was like the average Londoner is photographed 400 times a day because, to save manpower, London police have gone CCTV heavy. We're wondering if this is a cause of the London police being so relaxed about arrests. Could be they're wimps. But also it could be they're in no rush because they're going to get everyone at some point.
So perhaps they're not wimps. but the London police has been extraordinarily kind to the rioters. They've basically given way each time things build up. Now, we know the London police are going to say they do not want to escalate the violence by being violent. But you see, that's just the definition of wimp, someone who doesn't want to cause more trouble by fighting back. The London police will also say they've been thoroughly outnumbered.
Tut tut. American cops will sneer at that explanation. Being outnumbered is a happy, happy situation for American cops because then it gives them that classic excuse to enthusiastically attack people without restraint: "we were in fear of our lives". Forget plastic bullets - never used in Britain says the media, we don't see the British police even use their batons or teargas. Wimps.

0230 GMT August 9, 2011

By all means attack the President, but be logical This is out message to a lady, a conservative blogger whose column appears in the Washington Post. Writing in one of the (allegedly) top newspapers in the world and talking to the blogocracy are two different things, as the editors of the WashPo need to tell this young lady. Giving her a column doesn't mean she is free to print all manner of utter rubbish and the paper absolved of all responsibility for the rants of its journalists.
Before we tell you why we are wroth at this lady, we'd like to remind we (a) would not have voted for Mr. Obama had we had the right for vote; (b) do not agree with his economic policies; and think (c) he is on track to be nominated for three worst US presidents in US history. So we are hardly Obama fans. But that doesn't give us the right, or TYL (This Young Lady) either, to blithely go making up our own facts.
Our wroth-ness arises because TYL says the recent case of Alan Gross in Cuba shows dictators are encouraged by Mr. Obama's relaxation of the Cuba embargo. Mr. Gross arrived in Cuba to distribute cell-phones and computers to members of the tiny Jewish community, which is a no-no as far as the Cubans are concerned. Mr. Gross's supporters (which include Mr. Obama) insist he did nothing wrong and should be released from the 15-year sentence that has been handed down.
But what does this have to do with the embargo being relaxed? First, does it occur to TYL, who from the way she writes - that breathy, breezy, clever way, 100% form and 0% substance - must have been born after the US first clamped an embargo on Cuba, that 40 years later the embargo has not worked? Castro has seen off 8 US presidents. Old age has embraced him in its fatal clasp, but never once did that embargo lead to any weakening of Mr. Castro's power.
Now, one definition of a psychotic is a person who keeps doing the same thing expecting different results. The US behavior toward Cuba is psychotic, and if TYL believes the embargo should continue to influence the Castros, she too is a member of august club of psychos.
Editor says "august club" because he too is a member of long-standing. Every week Editor spends the week trying to get a date for the weekend, and every week he fails. Does that discourage him from trying ago? No. Pyscho! The difference is Editor blames himself for his lack of success with dates, he doesn't get snarky and blame President Obama, and nor did he blame Mr. Bush, or Mr. Clinton, or Mr.. Bush, or Mr. Reagan - wait, Editor lies - a young lady did go to the movies with Editor back in 1981.
Next, does it occur to TYL that the reason Mr. Gross was able to get to Cuba with his cell phones and computers was because the embargo has been relaxed? Previously, Mr. Gross would be breaking US law to go to Cuba, and unless he was a fellow traveler he would never have gotten a visa to begin with. And in any event he would have been minutely inspected at the airport, and on account of the contraband, his next step would have been a not-too-uncomfortable cell. So here we are in strange situation that had US Government not weakened the embargo against Cuba, he would have been sitting comfortably in his Potomac home in Maryland (very expensive place to live, BTW). So if we push this argument to its logical end. as has TYL in her own way, if you are going to blame Mr. Gross's unfortunate circumstance on Mr. Obama, you have to say not that Cuba is taking advantage of the relaxed embargo, but that Mr. Gross took advantage.
Now lets take this argument a bit further: is TYL ready to cross-her-heart-and-hope-to-die (Editor always ends up crossing the right side of his heart, which people is wrong, because the heart is on the left side; but on Mars we have our hearts on our right side) that Mr. Bush II never, ever, did anything to relax the embargo on Cuba?
Another point. US recently arrested a Pakistani person (we're told he's actually a renegade Indian) because this person was trying to propagate Pakistan's view in Congress (Oh the horror! Oh the perfidy! Oh the criminality! The sheer arrogance of this man, thinking he could buy Congresspeople! Jailing is to good for him! Hand, draw, and quarter, and put one quarter atop a pike north, south, east, west along the entrances to the Shining Cesspool on the Hill (oh dear, did we really say that? Slip of the tongue is a slip of the mind, or something.)
Now, TYL would say: but this foreign person broke the law! He was supposed to register as a foreign agent! Its not the same thing! Well, is TYL ready to promise us there is no law in Cuba that concerns unregistered foreign agents? Actually there very might be no such law, because as far as the Cubans are concerned, foreign agents cant get to first base (whatever that is, something to do with baseball which is the only game in the world more boring than cricket - and then Americans have the nerve to say soccer is the most boring game ever- and we'd have to agree with them), so the question of being an unregistered agent probably wouldn't arise.)
But what precisely was this foreign gentleman trying to do? If you talk to him, he will say he wants democracy for Kashmir, just as Mr. Gross wants democracy for Cuba. So if US Government can tell Cuba okay, you' ve made your point, now let him go, we hope TYL will say the same to help this Indian or Pakistani gentleman. But of course she won't because even she cannot figure out how to pin this Indian or Pakistani gent on Mr. Obama.
Is Editor done ranting yet? Not at all. TYL talks of embargos. The US, of course, led the embargo against South Africa, and were it not for the US's heroic efforts, the US embargo on Red China wouldn't be so effective, right, ma'am? And we haven't even mentioned the US embargo against the conservative Arab states for repressing their citizens!
Okay, you say, reaching for the aspirin (if you're still reading), are you done yet? Not really. what particularly infuriated Editor was TYL's underlying assumption that it really matters if the US has an embargo against Cuba.If young people just bothered to do a bit of homework (and no, young people, homework has nothing to do with homeys, you don't take your homey home and work on her) she would have learned that the rest of the world does not care a gnat's behind about the US embargo! America's allies of every stripe do not care a gnat's behind! They are busy making money off Cuba, and if they are not trading, its because they don't see the profit! But yetTYL, like other Washingtoons of her ilk, actually believe the US matters in Cuba!
Okay, you say, what happened to your high-and-mighty stance that you never pick on women in this blog? Not to fear. Our noblesse oblige or whatever it is still applies! Just as Editor, when his students are being particularly opinionated with zero facts to back them up merely talks gently to them, he has been talking gently to this young lady. This entire rant is the model of gentility (is that a brand of adult diapers? one never knows these days, the Americans having slaughtered the American language).
Oh yes, before some supporter of TYL gets sniffy and writes in that TYL is a mature woman and we should show her respect for that, how 'bout her giving a bit of respect to facts? Besides which, as far as Editor is concerned, any lady under 65 is young. So there.

0230 GMT August 8, 2011

Antimatter belt discovered around earth OK, this really is more important that Libya, Syria, the debt limit, or the Editor null-date situation. A spacecraft launched in 2006 to study particles from the sun (PAMELA) has confirmed what scientists conjectured theoretically, that there is a band of antiprotons circling the earth, moreover, it appears the stuff is being constantly produced and annihilated. Saturn is likely to have an antiproton belt denser by three orders of magnitude compared to earth.
Why is this important? A few nanograms can impart a thrust of 100-km/second to a spacecraft. At this speed, you could get to Pluto hang around for perhaps 4 months, and return, all in a year. If you could collect enough anti-matter - say about 100-milligrams - you could get to the nearest starts at about under lightspeed. You could get to Centurus in ten years and back, allowing a year for exploration (these are very, very rough figures). After that the sky is the limit so as to speak.
If you are keen to read up on the business of trapping antiprotons in earth orbit, read http://www.niac.usra.edu/files/studies/final_report/1071Bickford.pdf we'd have summarized this for you, but these days after months of very close work on the computer Editor's eyes are a bit irritated, not to say this is a 77-page paper and classwork beckons. Its actually quite easy to read this paper even if you don't have the math (which Editor certainly does not) because the researcher has written things very simply and its simple to follow the basic argument.
The reason none of this was possible till this belt was discovered is that to make antimatter on earth, using current technology, costs $160-trillion per gram, which is not exactly small change: its almost three times the world GDP.
So right now it's not clear how long it will take to trap antiprotons and make a working antimatter engine. After all, people says fusion power will be available in the next 20 years, and it hasn't. (Though what the situation would be with a crash program as opposed to the putting-green speed we fund research.)
But at least the belt has been discovered and conceptual work on an antimatter trap begun.
Of course, if you want to pessimistic about it, you can say "oh great, now we can go wreck other solar systems." We hope it won't be that way.
By the way, it turns out that every 2-million years or so the earth wobbles and the climate changes, bringing desertification to the continents. That produce the mother of all duststorms. That kicks iron particles into the world ocean. That stimulates algae production. Algae love CO2 - like all plants they need it to live. That cuts CO2 in the atmosphere, reduces heat retention, and gives a Mother of All Ice Ages sort of situation. w. That cools the Earth so badly we get into a good long ice age. and all that happens without anyone burning a single barrel of oil.
Don't lose hope, iron particles are being experimented with, so far no notable success. Of course when they work it out someone will misplace a decimal, and then Maryland will be under a 3-km ice sheet, and whichever scientists are left will be going "sorry about that".
Libyan rebels sabotage gas pipeline for Tripoli power station Some districts still have power. Residents unhappy: its 40C outside (hey, that sounds like Washington DC) and Ramadan is underway. People saying this can't continue, but of course it will. meanwhile, UK Apaches assisting rebels in the western mountain region, minor gains reported from several fronts, nothing to write home about.
The National Debt is not the right figure to be looking at says Business Week July 27, 2011. Rather, we should look at the excess of government spending, or the fiscal gap, over revenues to the infinite horizon. That infinite things is not as bad as it seems, its not like it means what goes down in 3011 or whatever. Every year further you go out, present value of money decreases till its zero for practical purposes. (We're guessing this is asymptote, i.e., the graph approaches zero but never quite makes it.)
So Business Week the real debt is $211-trillion. Gasp. Choke, Urk. Meaning, that clams the US Government the US government is committed to spend exceed clams the USG will receive by $211-trillion.http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/why-the-debt-crisis-is-even-worse-than-you-think-07272011_page_2.html
The solution? Raise all federal taxes by 64% forever, or cut spending by 40% forever. We should be clear that if the USG raises taxes by 64% or cuts spending by 40%, the world will not end. It will just be a different world.
OECD says US pays 24% of GDP in all taxes, Norway pays 41%, Sweden 46%, and Denmark is tops at 48%, or twice what US pays. Last we checked, these countries are much better places to live in by a wide variety of measures than good ole USA; a 64% tax increase equates to 40% of GDP. Conversely, if one cuts 40% from the Federal budget, you have defense at around $400-billion, cuts in the same range to social security and medicare, serious reduction in other government services, but the good ole USA will still be around.
So before writing in to the Editor, lets be clear the solution you choose has to do with your politics and not economics (really). We're easy either way, because Editor remains focused on real problems, like getting a date the next Saturday. No need to ask about last Saturday. You already know the answer. http://www.oecd.org/document/60/0,3746,en_2649_34533_1942460_1_1_1_1,00.html#A_RevenueStatistics
So, you will say, if Denmark is so great why isn't Editor in Denmark. Excellent question. Aside from the family, the height of US women is about 5' 4". Sweden, for example, its 5' 6". That two inch difference may seem insignificant. But when you're kind of low to the ground as is Editor, that 2" translates into quite a difference. If you don't believe us, hie over to Sweden and check it out.

0230 GMT August 7, 2011

University of Maryland and University of Maryland University College on line research resources refusing to work properly. About a dozen critical studies needed for the Editor's paper just won't open. Champagne tuition, and flat fizz-dead soda delivery. That is no different from most universities: students should consider themselves privileged to kiss the universities' butts. More unnecessary tensions and waste of time and restricted update.

A simple matter of revenge So the Taliban shot down a US CH-47 during a raid, and killed 30 US personnel plus others, including 20 members of SEAL Team 6. Fair enough, it was a good shot, this is war, we're killing them, they have every right to kill us.
That said, the US needs to exact revenge for this incident. That has nothing to do with the strategy, geography, history or right or wrong or whatever of should we be in Afghanistan or not. Editor thinks not. But that has nothing to do with revenge. Revenge must be exacted, and the results not treated with political correctness. The Taliban responsible need to be tracked down, their heads mounted on stakes, and plenty of film/video taken.
Ooooh! War crime! War crime! According to whom, buster? The Grade A fat behinds in Washington who sent our troops to Afghanistan? The media and the civil liberties groups who have appointed themselves the definers of the military's morals? International opinion?
To which we say: please turn your butts upwind before spewing gas. No one, but no one, has any right to tell the military what to do in cases like this, because none of these people is risking a hangnail. No one is shooting at them. This personal, 100% and the military has a right to settle it personally.
And please no pious talk about how if we don't show the enemy dignity, he won't show us dignity. To these people we ask: can you show a single case where the enemy has shown dignity to US dead?
So we tell these people: when it gets personal as this one has, you have two choices. Shut up, or go and join the fight and gain the credibility for your political correctness.
Editor tells you this: when a civilization lacks the courage to seek revenge, to mutilate the bodies of the undearly departed, and then dance around whooping, drinking, and singing, all on camera, that civilization has forfeited its right to existence.
New York Times said the raid was mounted in an area which in April was given over to Afghan security forces. The Taliban came back, the Afghans ran, and the Taliban rule the roost. The locals don't support the Taliban. But they have no choice because the Man With The Gun is not an Afghan solider but a Talib, Not very complicated, really. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/07/world/asia/07afghanistan.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&hp
This story shows why it is utterly, completely futile to stay in Afghanistan. It does not matter if US stays till 2014, 2018, 2012, or whatever, because when US leaves, the Taliban will take over.
We need to leave - now. But after revenge has been exacted.

0230 GMT August 6, 2011

Regretfully, it's a very short update today. Editor has been working on a term paper due this Sunday, and had his first draft ready well in time. Disaster struck: he ran across a source that contradicted his entire previous research on the subject, and more research showed more contradictions. Okay, so it makes for a better paper, because now you can present both sides. But when you're pressed for time, this is Not A Good Thing.

S & P downgrades US rating to AA+ from AAA This is for two simple reasons. One, world confidence that the US can get legislative approval to keep the government running and interest paid has taken a big hit by the circus we saw in Washington the last month. We are pointing no fingers, but the worthies who didn't want to raise the debt ceiling will cost the US between $70- and $100-billion dollars in additional annual interest, the cost of ensuring US debt will go up, and the effects will likely last for years even if US gets its fiscal house in order. And that's the second reason for the downgrade: anyone who thinks the US will get its fiscal house in order is ingesting overdoses of the Good Stuff. So its the Law of Unexpected Consequences: people wanting fiscal reform and a reduction in spending have cost America more money - a lot more money.
Earlier one of the other rating services had pushed the US down to AAA negative outlook, which is not as bad as AA+.
Honest disclosure: Editor was for a default because we are never going to get the mess sorted out with so much debt and he wants this generation to take the hit in terms of a reduction in living standards so that our children can start with a clean slate. Further honest disclosure: should the US default, Editor will be one of tens of millions who will lose their homes and will shift to cardboard boxes and lining up at soup kitchens, because nothing Editor does is needed in an economy under the stress a default would cause. Ancient teachers will be among the first to take hits - indeed, he is in his current situation because ancient teachers have been taking hits since the economy tanked. So Editor is not talking theory from the Ivory Tower with a safe jobs, a house paid off, and a ton and a half of savings: he has everything to lose if the US defaults.
Syria continues killing spree in Hama A hundred died in the first assault earlier in the week. A hundred more have been killed as Syrian forces push deeper into the city, partitioning neighborhoods and cutting off power and water. should you go out on the street to seek help, or buy food, or get to the hospital, you are shot dead, and it doesn't matter if you're a woman or a man. Anyone trying to remove your body is also shot.
Residents are mortally afraid that the government is going to start going house to house picking up people for summary execution. That's what happened three decades ago, when 10,000 dies (at the time people thought it might be as many as 30,000, but these things tend to get reduced with time, such as the firebombing of Dresden which no longer qualifies as one of the top atrocities of all time.)
But: you have to hand it to the Syrian people: gutsy as all heck, yesterday they again came out in full force to protest the regime, including in Hama.
US is thinking of freezing someone's account who is pals with Assad of Syria or something equally significant like beating a foto of Assad with a limp noodle, or better yet, cursing the foto. Its very effective stuff, expect the regime to fall latest by noon Sunday.

0230 GMT August 5, 2011

Oooooh, what fun HMS Liverpool, a Royal Navy Type 42 destroyer, fired several illumination rounds at Libyan coastal targets in support of air strikes. A Libyan rocket launcher opened fire on the destroyer. The destroy got to fire back with its 4.5" gun. This is what passes for naval combat these days.
Is this Gaddaffi even in his right mind? For month's Gaffy's boy Saif has been warning Après Moi le Islamic deluge. Nobody bought that, so now he says Libya may become an Islamist state. (It already is an Islamic state.) This boy is just as erratic and Kwazee as his dad. Does he understand if he shares power with the Islamists, pretty soon he'll be doing the Captain Hook walk into the Mediterranean
Think you can top this Indian? Don't even try Police in the state of Utter Pradesh have arrested a contract killer ten years after opening a search for him. He has been charged in 30 murders, but police say he may have committed another 135.
We'd take that 135 with a pinch of salt. Once the police catch someone whose done many murders, its so simple to tack on all the unsolved murders, claim a resolution, and close the case files. We'd halve the 135 figure
Swedish man arrested for trying to set up a N-reactor at home so this gentleman had been experimenting with radioactive material, trying to get an N-reaction going in his kitchen. Then it occurred to him: was this legal? Being a good and law-abiding Swede (all Swedes are good and law-abiding) he rang up the Government to ask if this was legal. Government, with utter lack of any sense of humor, send the police who arrested the man for unauthorized possession of radioactive material.
What happened to the old concept of having a little fun? Too much political correctness nowdays.
Comment from a reader You said the other day TARP did not work. There is evidence it did, but that is not the real issue. Because first cut government economic statistics are notoriously unreliable, you have to appreciate that the first half of 2008 was a real economic disaster. GDP was initially thought to have fallen by 0.5% and 3.8%; in reality it fell by3.7% and 8.9%. The stimulus, then, would have had to be a lot bigger because demand collapsed much more than was realized.
Comment from another reader A favorite saying of the extreme right is that FDR's stimulus did not end the Great Depression, the onset of World War 2 did. But the greatest stimulus package in US history, as a percentage of GDP, was? Yes indeed, it was the deficit spending for World War 2.

0230 GMT August 4, 2011

Congress does it again

So Congress feels it needs its six week summer break and it has gone home. Left in the lurch are the non air traffic control staff, whose budget Congress refused to approve 12 days ago. So these people are laid off, at a costing of $200-million/week in tax collections from air passengers. safety is not immediately impacted, but as all construction work at federally-funded airports has come to a halt, at some point down range safety will be an issue.
The Republicans, who told the Democrats that if they wanted GOP votes, the Democrats would have to accept cuts in subsidies to rural airports that disproportionately affect Democratic congressmen. The GOP also wanted no further rule changes that make unionization easier at the FAA. And the Republicans have told the other side of the aisle, our way or the highway, no discussions.
Let's start by saying the GOP's case against subsidies makes sense if you are against subsidies. But of course, the GOP is the greatest supporter of business subsidies. So this aura of fiscal probity smells as sweet as a landfill at 20-meter depth.
But beating up the GOP is not our agenda today. After all, beating up politicians of any stripe today is basically easier than battling a raccoon in a wheelchair for a lollipop. It takes neither heroism nor a surfeit of bravery to beat up our politicians who, as far as Editor is concerned, need to be sentenced for the rest of the terms to the Arizona jail run by the Sherriff who makes the inmates wear pink panties, and houses the inmates in tents in the desert, without air conditioning, and various other behavior modifiers. Sledges for breaking rocks and chains would also feature heavily if the Editor had his way.
No. Our point today is to beat up President Obama for a simple reason. You can blame the pols all you want, but isn't the Prez supposed to - well, lead? Sorry to say, our beloved Prez's leadership qualities are so weak he couldn't lead a pajama party of fourth grade girls.
Now, it isn't entirely his fault he doesn't know how to lead. He has very little political experience, and he's very young. Oho, you will exclaim: we've got the snarky Editor now. What about JFK, you say? He was even younger than Prez Obama. Fair enough.
Except for two things. One, leading was in JFK's genes. His dad brought up his boys to lead. The family was part and parcel of the ruling elite. Just accompanying his dad taught JFK more about international relations than Professor Obama will ever know. And, even though JFK led just a handful of men on a torpedo boat, serving in the military and a war gives more experience of leading in a year than most of us learn in a lifetime.
Even then, there was a very good probability that had JFK lived to complete his first term, he would have been labeled as one of the least effective of American presidents in history. But you see, JFK had something Mr. Obama doesn't. And that was the in(famous) Lyndon Baines Johnson who began every speech with "Mah feller Markins. LBJ was larger than life, from showing his surgical scars on national TV, to picking up his hound by the ears and insisting the little guy loved it. There was, however, a very important side of LBJ that the world did not get to see. LBJ was a foulmouthed, arm-twisting blackmailer who looked you in the eye and told you if you didn't vote he wanted, you would never go poopy again because he would rearrange your anatomy. And just in case you weren't intimidated, LBJ by sheer coinkydinky have on his desk a file or notes that detailed your latest tryst with a woman not your wife, or taxes you hadn't filed, or the underaged male page you'd been feeling up. LBJ was a force of nature: you either did what he said, or you broke. And if you foiled him regardless, he never ever forgot, and you just never knew when retribution would arrive.
Of course, times were different then. The pols were different. Governing was a fine art of wheeling-dealing and compromise largely hidden from the public. Those men lived hard, played hard, and fought hard.
As for Prez Obama, lets cut this discussion short with a single question. Is easier to to imagine that Bo The Presidential Dog heels when the Leader of the Free world tells him to heel, or that Bo The Presidential Dog responds with leg in the air and a satisfying piddle with LOFW's leg serving the function of a fire hydrant?
There you have it, folks. For Prez we have a man who serves as America's most exclusive fire hydrant. No need to wonder why his enemies of every stripe piddle away.
Are we being disrespectful of the Prez by using these analogies? Only if the Prez had done something which Editor could respect. The Prez can start by busting heads. If you aren't prepared to bust heads, please don't expect respect, and please go back to teaching at Harvard or wherever, because the next five years will be as futile as the first years of the presidency.

Okay, now prepare for some serious reading (That tells you Editor did not write below, its from a reader.)

Re your blog comment " First, while classic economics says deficit spending is needed when demand falls and the economy slows, this did not work when the government did TARP I and this and that. Government says things would have been worse had it not done the stimulus." I have to disagree with the inference in that statement that fiscal stimulus does not work.
Use of monetary and fiscal policy in a great contractionary situation as we have now (high unemployment, disinflation or threat of deflation, and zero interest rates) is not whimsical leftist theory. It is Economics 101. It is fundamental macroeconomics based on 70 years of scholarship after the Great Depression, which someone said can be referred to as Great Contraction I, as opposed to where we are today, i.e., Great Contraction II. To suggest that use of aggressive monetary and fiscal policy in the present circumstances has been challenged by other thinkers is pretty much like saying "Scientists declare Earth is Round...But some Disagree."
The Austrians and Libertarians disagree with Economics 101 only to the extent that they believe in a purging of the system every now and then. They do not offer a counter theory of intervention. In short, they offer inaction. Here is a quote from an article by Brad DeLong (UCLA Economics professor) on the Great Depression:
"Contemplating the wreck of his country's economy and his own political career, Herbert Hoover wrote bitterly in retrospect about those in his administration who had advised inaction during the downslide:
The 'leave-it-alone liquidationists' headed by Secretary of the Treasury [Andrew] Mellon felt that government must keep its hands off and let the slump liquidate itself. Mr. Mellon had only one formula: 'Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate'. He held that even panic was not altogether a bad thing. He said: 'It will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people'
But Hoover had been one of the most enthusiastic proponents of "liquidationism" during the Great Depression. And the unwillingness to use policy to prop up the economy during the slide into the Depression was backed by a large chorus, and approved by the most eminent economists.
For example, from Harvard Joseph Schumpeter argued that there was a "presumption against remedial measures which work through money and credit. Policies of this class are particularly apt to produce additional trouble for the future." From Schumpeter's perspective, "depressions are not simply evils, which we might attempt to suppress, but forms of something which has to be done, namely, adjustment to change." This socially productive function of depressions creates "the chief difficulty" faced by economic policy makers. For "most of what would be effective in remedying a depression would be equally effective in preventing this adjustment."
From London, Friedrich Hayek found it:
...still more difficult to see what lasting good effects can come from credit expansion. The thing which is most needed to secure healthy conditions is the most speedy and complete adaptation possible of the structure of production. If the proportion as determined by the voluntary decisions of individuals is distorted by the creation of artificial demand resources [are] again led into a wrong direction and a definite and lasting adjustment is again postponed.The only way permanently to 'mobilise' all available resources is, therefore to leave it to time to effect a permanent cure by the slow process of adapting the structure of production...
Hayek and company believed that enterprises are gambles which sometimes fail: a future comes to pass in which certain investments should not have been made. The best that can be done in such circumstances is to shut down those production processes that turned out to have been based on assumptions about future demands that did not come to pass. The liquidation of such investments and businesses releases factors of production from unprofitable uses; they can then be redeployed in other sectors of the technologically dynamic economy. Without the initial liquidation the redeployment cannot take place. And, said Hayek, depressions are this process of liquidation and preparation for the redeployment of resources.
As Schumpeter put it, policy does not allow a choice between depression and no depression, but between depression now and a worse depression later: "inflation pushed far enough [would] undoubtedly turn depression into the sham prosperity so familiar from European postwar experience, [and]... would, in the end, lead to a collapse worse than the one it was called in to remedy." For "recovery is sound only if it does come of itself. For any revival which is merely due to artificial stimulus leaves part of the work of depressions undone and adds, to an undigested remnant of maladjustment, new maladjustment of its own which has to be liquidated in turn, thus threatening business with another [worse] crisis ahead."
I think this sums up the disagreement. But, if one is not of a mind to inflict pain upon millions and millions of people around the world that the "purging of the rottenness" would bring, there is simply no debate that aggressive monetary and/or fiscal stimulus are essential. Given that monetary measures are pretty much tapped out, all we are presently left with are fiscal measures. While a case can be made against fiscal stimulus because of potential "crowding out" of private investment, that is not a credible argument where, as here, interest rates are at zero and government borrowing is not doing anything to push interest rates up in the private sector such that would prevent the private sector from borrowing, investing and creating new jobs.
Most economists agree (including some whom conservatives--as opposed to Austrians or Libertarians--like) that the reason businesses are not borrowing basically free money is that there is no demand for the goods they would produce. The collapse of aggregate demand is being caused by private debt overhang. And that debt has to be either forgiven, or restructured, or satisfied in full by coercive measures such as foreclosures and ... that word again ... liquidation. Creditors, of course, are also concerned about inflation caused by high borrowing. But, there would be little chance of inflation given how high unemployment is, and given how low borrowing costs are. Moreover, a little inflation would help debtors pay off their debts. But that is precisely what creditors do not want, because even a little bit of inflation would lower their return and they wouldn't recover 100 cents on the dollar.
Given that this is a "balance sheet recession" there are only two ways to go "purge the rottenness" or aggressive stimulus. Right now, it seems we are hedging and doing a little bit of both which has put is in stasis.
Apropos our Hayek v Keynes discussion, while they clearly disagreed on how to deal with a depression (monetary/fiscal intervention-Keynes; non-intervention to purge the rottenness-Hayek), Keynes did not disagree with Hayek that controlled economies on the Soviet or Mahalanobis models were the "Road to Serfdom" (Mahalanobis was no where in sight when they corresponded on this subject, but had he been around at the time, they would have both agreed his macroeconomic model for India was absolute folly).

0230 GMT August 3, 2011

Academic disaster strikes. One of Editor's professors emailed yesterday to say Editor was going to at best make a C in his course, which in grad school is a fail. Editor forgot to turn in assignments worth 15% of the final grade, and brilliantly managed an 80% in the mid-term. When Editor read his mid-term, he couldn't figure out what he had written leave alone why. Its like the Evil Twin took over. Curse you, Evil Twin. And apparently cheating has now become so widespread Editor's other professor for the summer session has required all her students to use Turnitin, a web service that runs your essay through its software and then gives a grade depending on how much is original work. Editor was most offended. he has been writing for 50 years, and the notion a young barely-out-of-PhD professor is asking him to prove he hasn't cheated was a bit much to swallow. The thing is, those of us from India have this cultural thing about respecting teachers, and it doesn't matter how much younger they are to the student. So Editor did as required, after considering and disregarding the idea of standing on his horse and saying he would be darned if at his age he had to prove he hadn't cheated. That would have been disrespectful to the teacher, not to say Editor doesn't have a horse, high or low, on which to stand. The software gave his essay a zero, which means all of it is original (of course all of it is original @##%^&). Truthfully, though, students cheat openly in school, and as undergrads. So why should anyone be surprised the students carry this charming habit over to grad school? And Editor for one cant blame the grad students: their elders lie, cheat, and slime all the time. The real crime in America nowadays is not cheating or lying, its getting caught

Libya After the RAF flew 54 sorties in 48 hours against Zlitan, which is about 30-km to the East of Misurata. rebel forces strolled into a quiet town after being stalled for two months outside. This advance removes any danger to Misurata from the occasional rocket barrage the loyalists could still throw. Rebel forces have very slowly been extending the Misurata perimeter also to the east and south. This is expected to overstretch loyalist forces, which are now faced with a three-front situation: east, west, and south of Tripoli.
In true politically correct form, NATO will suspend airstrikes against Tripoli for Ramadan, even though the rebels have said they will continue ops. They can't afford to give the loyalists a rest to reorganize.
Despite all this, the rebels have neither the forces, the leadership, and the logistics to fight for Tripoli. The hope - reemphasize hope - is that when the rebels close in from three sides Tripoli will revolt. Toward that end the rebels have been slipping men and material into Tripoli, but as far as we know we're talking hundreds and not thousands. we estimate loyalists will be able to muster 10,000 troops, mercenaries, and reasonably well-trained armed civilians for a final stand. And urban fighting is very much a defender's advantage.
Debt deal done, but markets tank And why shouldn't they? The economy is slowing down to slower than a quadriplegic snail, even with the snail giving the economy a 1000-meter lead. Editor repeats: pay down your bills, and save, save, save. It's your job to look after your family and yourself, not to boost demand, particularly now that even the government is going to cut spending by $3-trillion over the next 10-years, taking a big bite out of demand.
There's two ways of looking at this collapse of demand and the government's inability to stimulate it. First, while classic economics says deficit spending is needed when demand falls and the economy slows, this did not work when the government did TARP I and this and that. Government says things would have been worse had it not done the stimulus; the reality is that the Haves are raking it in like never before, the Have Nots are sinking faster than they were before. It is absolutely no use for government to come and mouth theory to the Common Woman when she was doing badly before and is doing worse now. The Common Woman does not think its a coinkydinky that the top is making out like bandicoots while everyone else is trying to stay afloat.
Second, there is a school of thought in America that says having a roaring economy is not everything. Having a smaller government is, to them, everything. Even if the Libertarians and Tea Partiers and all bought the logic of the government stimulating demand, and they don't, and right now they may have a good point, the essential thing is they just don't care. They don't want the government all powerful, and if it means they have to take a reduced standard of living, they'll be happy to do so, and if it means America gives up its power in the world, they're fine with that too. They don't see why we have to meddle in every country in the world.
This ideological gulf is so wide that a while ago we had to suggest letting parts of the country experiment with the small government thing. Give them a chance to see if it works. If it doesn't, they'll come back to the mainstream and that will be it. But if you don't give them a chance, they will be forever angry and unhappy. It is unhealthy for a democracy to have a solid minority sitting there seething. This is what leads to armed rebellions. The days have gone when we could simply push west every time we didn't like the way our state was being run. Can't do that anymore. so these experiments have to take place within the country. No one can claim ultimate wisdom. The big government boys and gals have been doing things their way for 80 years. Okay, till 1970 it worked out. But it no longer is working out. We thought the American way was when method A fails to work, we move to Method B. Or was that back in the America of the Editor's youth and now we're just as sclerotic like the Euros and Japanese we love to trash.

0230 GMT August 2, 2011

So what happened to the August 1 update? The light went off. as in "poing!" and there's no more power. Storm? None in sight. Overload? this was at 9PM and by Washington standards it was a cool summer evening, i.e., "only" 90F. Someone wrapped himself around a utility pole? Possible, but when Editor went to check, a dozen blocks at least were without power, not just a street.

When Editor complains about the America of today versus the America of his childhood and youth, sometimes he thinks he's suffering from Old People's Rosy View Of The Past Syndrome. At least in relation to this power outage, no Rosy Views Of The Past. Editor distinctly remembers in the 1960s, for example, when he was in New England, the power went off exactly once. That was the night something tripped in Canada and the transmission system came down. Power going off was so rare that we wondered if the Soviets had attacked. Really. None of us could fund another reason, and no, neither Editor nor his friends indulged in the Good Stuff as was the wont in the 1960s. In Washington, if the power goes off six to twelve times a year, we shrug our shoulders. Once we didn't have power for six days. another time, it was three.

Quite aside from the power regularly going off, the water goes off at least once every couple of years because of water-main breaks. Once it was serious enough the water company had to run temporary pipes for our street.

Now, when the power went yesterday, Editor took out his trusty camping lantern and went downstairs to look at the telephone directory. The directory, of course, is designed for denizens who have one-meter wide eyes, it is in such small print. Not helpful for old people trying to read by the light of a lantern. So Editor found Potomac Electric Power Company, which had no outage reporting number - only the main office. Helpfully the entry said "Look under Pepco", which Editor did. There is a PEPCO in the book, but it has nothing to do with electricity. So, Dial 411, which helpfully gives three - count em, three numbers. Ring the first, because it ends in 2000 - looks like a serious number. The message goes blah and blah and blah, and to report a power outage, press such and such. Editor complies. "To report outage, please call such and such number." Editor calls such and such number. It takes five pushes of the button (1,1,1,1, and 1, if anyone cares) to get the outage registered and the news a repair crew has been dispatched and power will be restored at such and such time. A few years ago, there was no such estimate, till Pepco Lost It (Literally) twice for several days and the mobs were gathering outside its corporate HQ with their nuclear weapons, A-10s, and old M-60 tanks. So this counts as progress. And yes, the power did come back by the estimated time, four hours later.

Observation Number 1. Editor has watched Pepco crews at work. They are very quick and very efficient at their work, and affable and polite. Its just that the transmission/distribution is bust like most of America's infrastructure. Because of the need to declare outsize profits, repair crews have become scarce as Martian Fudgecicles - the kind that come from Mars.

Observation Number 2: If someone wanted to make a case that Pepco is doing everything to mess you up so that you DON'T call, lets just say someone wanting to prove that hypothesis incorrect would have a very difficult time.

Observation No. 3. Editor has just said the power goes off all the time. Why not write the number on the 'fridge? Because then Editor would have to finally admit to himself he lives in a second world country, not in the "sole superpower" and "leader of the free world" or whatever. Editor's refusal to write down the number is pure denial. On this Editor joins 310-million other Americans. We do it as a survival mechanism.

BTW, did the Editor mention in the name of "Choice", his power bill - and everyone else's in the area - has gone up 5%/ year for ten years? Only in America do they call its a choice when your bills go up and up , and your service goes down and down. As far as Pepco is concerned, you really do have a choice. You can always choose to shoot yourself.

Libya The rebels in the west are now holding an east-west line 150-km south of Tripoli to the Tunisia border. This means they have advanced north, but instead have linked up their position along the east-west lateral road. The rebels are anxious to advance but are very worried they will outrun their logistics. They say they have been raiding loyalist positions successfully and now is the time to advance. Rebels have been held up outside Brega for weeks due to hundreds of thousands of plastic landmines, but are said to have gained some ground westward. On the coast they are closer to Tripoli from Zlitan, which is to the east of the capital, but again we can't figure out where they are,
Please to notice each time Editor has said rebels are making progress they get stuck, and each time he says they are stuck, they make progress. The quality of reporting is really, really poor.
Syria Assad Junior struck heavily at Hama, where decades ago his father killed 10,000 protestors. At least one hundred demonstrators were killed. They men are facing Syrian armor with wood bats, rocks, and steel rods, and each time they take out a demonstration anywhere in Syria they know they're going to get killed. But they just don't give up. Each killing is followed by bigger demonstrations.
Meanwhile, the world is appalled, horrified and what have you at the killings. Brazil (thank you, you lover of liberty 3rd World nation, you make Editor feel proud to be a member of the 3rd world standing in solidarity with you) China, and Russia are blocking whatever little the UN can do. we are thoroughly fed up of the US and EU's toothless outrages, please stuff a large, stinky, gym sock in it, will you, and spare us - please.
No debt default at first sight the GOP has won everything - cuts in spending only, no increase in taxes. Indeed, a lot of people overseas were confused that Mr. Obama was giving the GOP more than they had started out asking for as their original maximum position, but GOP was still not taking it.
On closer examination, the picture is more murky. The cuts will fall heavily on seniors and the disadvantaged, and since there are all these Boomers who don't have the decency to lie down and die, and plenty of disadvantaged, come 2012 these people will be in a Bad Mood. GOP oldies and disadvantaged may say they want spending cut, but they don't want anyone touching their programs.
So: come 2012, you will either get a massive shift to Democrats in House and Senate, or the GOP will hold its gains. In the first case, GOP/Tea Party will have won a true, historic victory and we will see a structural change to the right. In the latter case GOP will be drinking coffee.
Is that a brilliant analysis or what, saying either the Republicans will win in 2012 or the Democrats. People should pay us for this stuff.
Meanwhile, if any GOP person thinks Obama will be overthrown in 2012, they need to adjust their meds - upwards. Way upwards. There wasn't much chance he was going to lose, economy or no, despite the fevered dreams running around in the heads of some Republicans, now there is zero chance.
The Austrians we got a serious boinking on the head by a real economist (PhD and all that, decades of teaching etc) when we brought up the Austrian school and Hayak (are we spelling his name right?) all we humbly asked was what did the learned person think of the Austrian school?
The LP said that the Austrians and Keynes DID NOT disagree at heart. How? Because the Austrians were talking about the likely failure of the communist system and Keynes etc agreed that was not going to work. They were not talking about socialism as it is practiced in the US today.
OMG! Editor finally said it: US is a socialist country! Well, of course it isn't. But it isn't a capitalist country either. Its a tight conglomerate of big business, the media, the very rich, and the politicians, whose sole purpose is to enrich themselves at the expense of the other 99% of Americans. This is what is sad when people talk about giving the market free expression. If there is a country where the market has free expression, its not the US. In a free market government would withdraw every subsidy to private enterprise (and in fairness this is what the Libertarians want) and would restrict itself to national security, communications, and currency - and, horrible thought, of ensuring a level playing field for all free enterprises, small or big. But that means - oh no - the government has to intervene and regulate like mad...
Our head hurts. Time for more chocolate. Assuming one can afford it.

Turkey, or your quick world history lesson in a painless ten minutes

(Less if you just read the first and last lines)

What does the resignation of four of five top military commanders mean? Only the chief of the Gendarmerie (the national police) remains. Quick zip through history. Ottoman Empire comes to an inglorious end with Turkey's defeat in World War I (Turkey sided with Germany). Decline of the glorious rule of the Ottomans due to the failure to match the modernization/industrialization of the west; other old empires - China and India being the biggest and oldest, also bite dust for same reason.
Along comes Kemal Ataturk, a very capable general in a very incompetent army. Humiliated by Turkey's defeat he stages a coup against the monarchy, and commands Turkey to modernize. To prevent backsliding he forbids any return to Islamic tradition/society, and establishes military as the guarantor of secular Turkey.
In the 1960s-90s Turkish Army stages four coups when it feels its power as the guarantor is threatened. In 2002, the Islamists (swearing they are moderates) come to power democratically - for the first time in a hundred years, Turkey's Islamic character predominates, as opposed to its force-imposed secular character. This all coincides with the global rise of Islam 2000s, with the difference Turkey is not a failed country like - say Saudi arabia or Egypt, but a modern, thriving, and vital one. Its too complicated to discuss what the Islamic pull is.
In 2003, the Islamist party breaks the control of the military over parliament, basically calling the military's bluff it will stage another coup. Another coup doesn't happen because confusion reigns for the military because in the 2000s democracy has become the norm; even the Soviet Union has fallen to democracy, to say nothing of dozens of African, Asian, and Latin states. Further, Turkey has decided it wants to be part of the EU to reap the economic benefit thereof, and EU has very strict rules about maintaining democracy. Any deviation thereof gets Brussels upset, and this includes stuff like human rights and the death penalty.
OK. So the generals are stymied. Some of them go ahead in 2007 with a plan a modified coup: Army will not march on the presidential palace in Istanbul or whatever, but it will express displeasure with the way the country is shifting to Islamic norms, and the people will depose the government or whatever. Army's hands remain clean, EU can't object etc.
This doesn't happen, because the Turkish people too have made a commitment to democracy, and also no one wants the possibility of a civil war, because by now the Islamists have emerged full force out of the woodwork where they had been forced to flee by Ataturk and his successors, and Islamists make clear they are not going gently into the good night or whatever.
So for a while all is quiet, but like diligent moles the Islamists are working underground to take the army out of the equation once and for all. Last years the Islamists strike, arresting 250 flag officers for subversion. Some are put on trial. Army reels from this blow. Unable to get itself together, and every day that passes without an agreement among the military to stage a coup, the more strength the Islamist party gains.
Meanwhile, in true commie-pinko agitprop style, Islamists keep swearing they are democrats, and who knows, maybe even some are, including the leader. Of course, the Islamists are quietly working to do the mole thing to one day get their moderate colleagues to the guillotine or whatever people do these days.
Also in true pinko-liberal style, EU/US keeps reassuring itself there's no threat, let Turkey become the first shining example of a democratic state run on Islamic values, we are so liberal we respect everyone's culture, however absurd that culture may be.
So where are we now? The resignation of the chiefs is, in our not-so-humble opinion, born out of weakness and a realization a whole bunch of flag officers - their own men - are going for nice long stays in Turkish prisons, which we regret to inform you are Not Nice, even by the standards of American prisons. The chiefs may be hoping to precipitate a crisis that allows the military to come to power.
Our guess is its too late, and if the chiefs have any sense, they will exit Turkey soonest before they get arrested too for subversion.
So is it game over and we must prepare for an openly Islamist Turkey circa 2020? We don't think this will work out so simply because for every Islamist there is a truly secular Turk, and at some point the secularists will fight back. Also, as Islamists impose their values more openly, EU/US will start sanctioning them, living standards will fall etc. Whether this leads to an overthrow of the Islamists we cant say. It hasn't so far in Iran, but you could argue its all starting to bite and the natives are restless and the drums and going Bonga Bonga Bonga in the jungles.
But in the end, the feller who refuses to follow the rules of democracy has a great advantage. Had Mao, Stalin, Hitler - and our fave dictator Hugo - held fair and free elections after being in power 10 years, they would have been thrown out of power. So - how clever is this? - they didnt have free elections. So its possible by 2025 you are looking at a true Islamic republic, with the Turk leaders going "neena neena neena" to the west.
At this point some of you are clutching your heads, maybe, and saying "This is so not fair." The Soviet Union fell in 1991. We were supposed to finally reap the fruits of World War 2 by seeing the whole world become democratic, peaceloving, buying Big Macs, Coke, and Lady Gaga, and the hedge fund people were supposed to rule the universe. (No hedge funds under Islam, and there are days the Editor thinks maybe it would be worth it to have an Islamic universe just to get rid of the hedge fund frauds - we're just saying.)
Having beaten back fascism, having beat back Japanese militarism, have beaten back communism, our just reward is the rise of yet another movement that is 100% antithetical to our secular values?
We agree this is so not fair. But hey, what was it Founding Whose Your Daddy Tom Jefferson said about the tree of liberty needs to watered from time to time with the blood of tyrants and patriots? Darn prescient those Founding Daddy Os. They had a solution for everything. Except the problem of the Editor sitting at home typing this screed because once more - yes, yet once more - he has no date on a Saturday night. Those FFs didn't know everything. But they came pretty close.

0200 GMT July 30, 2011

US Ruling Elite: Thank You We proles are so grateful to learn the US economy grew at a rate of 1.3% in the 2nd Quarter, and the 1st Quarter rates has been revised down from 1.9% to 0.4%. US population increases ~1.3% annually, so we've actually lost ground in the first half of the year. But at least the ruling class has not yet taken away our cable-TV, beer, and snacks. Thank you, thank, thank you so much, massa.
Meanwhile, you've been reading the statistic that in the just five years, 2005-09, the wealth of Hispanic households fell by 66% and of black households by 53%. Whites now have 20 times the household wealth of minorities, up from 10-1 twenty years before the recession. Its not that whites became richer, they became poorer more slowly, with "only" 16% of whites losing household wealth.
so now the talking heads will tell us, oh you see, Hispanics had more of their wealth in their houses and the housing collapse caused them to take a bigger hot and so. OK. We've heard the explanation. everyone feel better now? isn't that so like America today? There's always an explanation for every calamity, and every calamity is really so different from the last, so people can pretend these are just aberrations.
They're not aberrations, they're proof that the system is working real well to do what it's set up to do: transfer wealth from the masses to the rich.
Next time you're tempted to get seduced by yet another explanation, best to remember the World War 2 picture of a British bomber: on its nose was written the slogan "It's always bloody something". Now, of course, the bomber crew meant that no sooner do they return from a mission, take off their boots, and stretch out to relax, they're told to get back in the air because "something" has happened. Nonetheless, we feel the slogan is quite apropos the explanation we get from the elite when you and I are doing lousy, while the top 1% is doing better and better.
And please don't anyone tell us the 1% are smarter and work harder than the rest of us. The rich talk of their 70-80 hour work weeks. How strange: the poor also have 70-80 work weeks because they don't have servants, and their work weeks don't include 20-30 hours of socializing passed off as "work". as for them being smarter, before the Editor went back to India and became a prole, he too was part of the elite. He went to school and college with the likes of the top 1%. They were thick as two planks, to borrow another English expression. The difference between them and you is simply they will sell their wife, mother, and children if the price is right. You and I would not.
Here's the bad news we're victims because we let ourselves be victimized. No one is going to magically appear and create the revolution for us. We have to do it ourselves. Remember America was founded on the basis of individual responsibility? If we wont accept the responsibility to make a change, then we are no different from the billions of the world's poor and unfortunate, who sit around and say "It's the system. What can we do?"
The Iranian al-Quds general said to "rule" Iraq We'd mentioned the other day that we weren't particularly worried about the Iranians taking over in Iraq because the Iraqis are xenophobes. and simply because both countries are Shia means nothing. Reader Rahul sends a link to an article in UK Guardian which says the Iranians are indeed running things in Iraq http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/28/qassem-suleimani-iran-iraq-influence
Its a fair point of view; personally we fell the Guardian has miscalculated Iran's ability to "control" Iraq by two orders of magnitude. Once the US leaves Iraq, things will change rapidly. Also one needs to remember that no Iranian controls Iran. Its different groups who compete with each and collaborate with each other as the situation requires. So saying an Iranian controls Iraq is a bit much.

0100 GMT July 29, 2011

Thank you, US Congress

People who say the US Congress is worthless are wrong. Thanks to the debt ceiling crisis, the newspaper fill page after page focusing on something that no ordinary person can do a thing about. Its a bit like an asteroid heading for earth. Either its going to hit or it'll miss, in either case, we're helpless. So there's no need to read through an entire newspaper, as one does every day. Now we need to read only half the paper. This saves time which can be better spent ogling the models in UK's Telegraph and Daily Mail. It doesn't do much for one's education on world affairs, but it certainly soothes eyes inflamed by staring hour after hour at the computer screen. (If you prefer to ogle male models, the two Brit newspapers have them too.)

Speaking of asteroids, the US aim to land on an asteroid by 2025 is going to be a lot harder than the Moon landing and likely even a future Mars landing, because relatively speaking these astros are darn small. Now, people are saying an asteroid landing is a Good Thing because we'll learn to steer dangerous ones away. Actually, you don't need to land people on the beast to do that. Depending on its size and distance you could use robots or explosives to nudge the thing a wee bit, and you're done. But you do need to learn how to land on them for the future, when humans are ready to mine the asteroids. Besides, landing is dangerous and therefore fun and a Must Do.

Norway The domestic terrorist parked his bomb van (half-ton explosives under the canopy of the entrance to the Prime Minister's office. As UK Telegraph puts it, this like parking the bomb on the steps of 10 Downing Street. Guards did not challenge him as he wore a police uniform. Two minutes later, the thing went bang. The Norway PM was not in the office.
We're not going to comment on this. As we've said before its up to Norway to decide how to run its security. But fascinatingly, because Oslo has a complicated system of user tolls on its streets, depending on the time of the day, the police have an accurate record of the movements of the terrorist's vehicles: the bomb van and the car he took to the island.
Way to go, mon. You're objecting to Muslims in Norway, go kill 70 Norwegian kids. Such an act of bravery and so sensible. When Muslims go to kill infidels, they generally have the decency and courage to blow themselves up too, Not you, mon. The minute the cops said "Drop it", you raised your arms. A true martyr for the cause.
BTW, the 21 years maximum sentence we mention was not a mistake. That'll all our pal can get, 21 years. One supposed they'll try and figure a way to keep in him inside forever, but who knows: in 2032 he just may be drawing his social security and living modestly well back in Oslo.
Syria: the Stats since March 15: 1634 killed, 2918 disappeared, generally taken individually from protest crowds and never seen again, approximately 26,000 arrested, 12, 617 still in detention. Of course, the usual torture and mistreatment for many of those arrested.
Say, US doesn't have a single UAV to spare? Isn't that a crying shame.
Now that's some prang...Prang for those of you who had deprived childhoods and never got to read Biggles, the manly British fighter pilot and adventurer (no discussion of his feelings, thank goodness) means a crash.
So reader Luxembourg sent in a story from Monaco, the place where they gamble and princess brides are exceptionally cute though lately they've been taller than the prince not to say half his age. where a young lady within a space of less than about 20 meters smashed her Bentley Azure into (a) Mercedes S class; (b) Ferrari F430; (c) Aston Martin Rapide; and (d) a Porche 911.
UK Daily Mail thoughtfully computes the cars involved in the crash as worth $1.1-million. The young lady and her companions couldn't get their doors open because the Bentley is surrounded by the casualties. Luckily no one was moving more than snail's pace or something, so the damage will be well less than $100.000.
Reader Luxembourg asked for our expert analysis. Well, we feel calling the guilty driver a "hapless blonde" is a bit unfair. What has her being a blonde got anything to do with anything. All this demonstrates is that blondes have a taste for the best. So this is our expert analysis: the young lady needs patient understanding and soothing, affirmation, validation, and discussions of feelings particularly important matters like her nail polish getting chipped in the accident. Clearly Editor, with his vast experience of defense analysis and young women, is the person to - er - affirm this young lady. Meanwhile, our readers can have the cars.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2019340/Hapless-blonde-crashes-250k-Bentley-FOUR-supercars.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

0100 GMT July 28, 2011

China building two fleet carriers No surprise, this has been known for some time. What we find pathetic is the west's denial reaction: oh, but it'll take them a decade to learn to operate carrier aircraft and so on. Look, people, ten years in the scheme of things is nothing. Before you know it, it will be 2021. China is no hurry, it has shown great patience while building up its military and indigenous military production over the last 30 years. In 1980, the notion of a broad-gauge rail line to Tibet would have given rise to hoots of laughter. But in 2011, not only to do you see that line running, the Chinese are staring work on an east-west lateral rail line from north of Kathmandu all the way to the tip of Northeast India. In 1980 if someone had spoken of such a lateral, he would have been deemed a Looney Tuner. In 2011 its a happening thing.
So: if the west wants to close its eyes, clutch its pink blankies, and say there's no problem, its the west's privilege. Your Editor, who used to keep a close eye on China's army TOEs, remembers all the way into the mid-1980s a Chinese infantry regiment had - wait for it - 30 trucks. China's logistics situation re Tibet was so bad you could have used every truck in the PLA and you couldn't support 10-divisions in daily combat. Of every ton payload dispatched to the India front, an effective 50-kg would reach. The rest would have been lost in fuel, spare parts, and engineering supplies. To Editor, 1980 is like yesterday. But today - to put it mildly - things have changed quite dramatically. with just one military train a day to Lhasa - if we recall right the line has a capacity to handle 18 trains each way each day, China could send 1600-tons/day of supplies each day. We don't want to get into this, its implications, or the implications of the massive road and airfield upgrade that has taken place in Tibet in the last 20-years. Suffice it to say in 1986-87 the Indian Army could have whacked the PLA out of Lhasa and the Aksai Chin in 72-hours. India still has exceedingly strong defensive positions that are being further strengthened, but as for an advance on Lhasa - in your dreams, baby.
China has every right to build carriers The world is "concerned". What precisely is this "concern" supposed to achieve? Get the Chinese to stop building their fleet and come running to the west's arms begging for forgiveness? Its a very simple equation: GDP equals power. US should be familiar with that one. The Soviets tried to match the US by a series of extreme compromises - their nuclear attack boats, for example, were pure junk - and by spending 20-30% of their GDP on defense - rates more akin to wars with a single front. (In total war the percentage goes up 60-70%.) The Chinese, already past $5-trillion or one-third of US GDP, don't have to compromise on quality or cripple their economy. Five percent of $5-trillion is already $250-billion/year, if China wanted to match US levels. Ten years from now China should easily reach $10-trillion at a slower growth rate of 7%. and by 2033, it should reach a GDP of $20-billion - nice $1-trillion to spend - at 6%. after that its dangerous to try and predict, Certainly the levels of $60-, $70-, $80-trillion by 2050 are fantasias. as the US is finding out, once your infrastructure is built and your consumer spending starting leveling, growth slows dramatically.
While China has every right to work its security policy the way it wants, it does need to remember that so does the US. Trying to get the US out of the Western Pacific is not going to happen unless the US collapses. And if it does, it will rise again, because it has resources, manpower, and know how. The current US decline is due to bad domestic politics, the shift of wealth from the middle to the rich, the shift of American capital to software and useless things like speculation, and the gutting of American manufacturing by shifting factories overseas. That's not going to last much longer. The people will rise up: not tomorrow, perhaps not even 2030. But the first time the Chinese try to eject the US from the WestPac, the people of this country will wake up. As for jobs, within ten years you will see millions of returning jobs simply because our wage rates will be lower. Its already happening in small ways. And in UK, incidentally, a company has bought its call centers back, if you can imagine. Cheaper rents, fewer business problems, no language issues and so on.
The two things the US does really, really well is weapons and Hollywood. Hollywood represents soft power. Weapons are hard power. By all means plan for a US decline vis-a-vis India and China to 2030. You'd be mad not to. If you're 25-40, plan to fi East, young woman. Work in China or India, forget the States, there is no future here at this time. But your children and grandchildren now - that will be quite different. Too bad us oldies will not be around.
(Of course, if Editor's theory is that Boomers are to blame for American's decline is correct, the best thing for America will be the oldies will not be around.)
Disclaimer. Editor is last of the beatniks, not the first of the Boomers. Thank you. Right now the only booms the Boomers are making is flatulence caused by acid.
(BTW, we had a complaint about our Glen Beck rant: why does Editor feel it neccessary to descend to Middle School level with potty jokes. If you have to ask that with respect both to Mr. beck and our politicians, you won't understand no matter how hard we try. Of course, if readers were to say potty jokes are too sophisticated for our leaders, we'd have to reconsider.)

0100 GMT July 27, 2011

Libya Ramadan is here so there will be no movement of the fronts. For NATO's first campaign without the US, we can be polite and say it is one stupid mess from beginning to end. Of course, the way US does things these days, perhaps if the US had really joined, the mess would have been ten times worse.
Please do not ask for NATO/US intervention against Syria. Every week, without failure, the Syrians turn out in hundreds of thousands to protest; every week, without failure, Assad of Syria kills 20-60, sometimes more, of his civilians. That this man needs to go is beyond dispute. That the US/NATO cannot be trusted to carry a hard-boiled egg 10-meters is also beyond dispute.
We again call for the disbandment of NATO as a complete and utter waste of money. Who is NATO protecting? Where? The sole threat is NATO's incompetence, which is why it should be disbanded.
We were going to suggest that NATO troops can at least be used as toy soldiers in annual productions of "The Nutcracker". Alas, on consideration we conclude even that is too complicated for NATO to handle.
In this connection, we have to issue an apology to the Government of India. For decades Editor has believed that when it comes to security policy, there is no more incompetent an entity in the world. Compared to NATO, Government of India is the model of efficiency, coordination, and decisiveness.
Taiwan scrambled two F-16s to turn back PLAAF Su-27s that were pursuing a US reconnaissance plane over the Straits of Taiwan. The Su-27s promptly broke off and there was no incident. This is the first time in 12 years ROC Air Force has scrambled against Chinese fighters, says UK's Telegraph, which seems odd. One would think there would be frequent such incidents.
A nice job of detecting Gaddaffi's SAM-7s The bulk of the missiles tracked down by the person who wrote this article date from the 1980s, and we'd assume the batteries are dead. But the writer saw at least one missile fired off. This still leaves the question of the state of the electronics and coolant required for the targeting mechanism. An excellent piece of detective work, though.
http://atwar.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/26/reading-the-refuse-counting-col-qaddafis-heat-seeking-missiles-and-tracking-them-back-to-their-sources/?hp
Egypt Just a head's up for readers. Looks like Egypt is build up to Stage 2 of its revolution, that of sending the army back to the barracks. In Stage 1 the political structure were overthrown, with the help of the army because it refused to intervene and warned the political power-holders they were not to kill civilians. But when the time came for the army to step away from its self-appointed role as guardian of the people, the army refused to comply and has said it will meet violent protests for change with force. The protests are starting regardless.
The army is playing games that could be bad for its health. This is an army recruited from the people, draftees. The generals may propose, but the majors will dispose. Egyptians have gotten their first test of democracy. They are not going to back down, and in our opinion, the rank and file of the army will throw their lot in with the people instead of with the generals. Who after all were part and parcel of the same corrupt system the people overthrew.

0100 GMT July 26, 2011

Shocking Development

Glenn Beck Admits He is a Nazi

Mr. Glenn Beck said the political camp for Norwegian youngsters 13-17 seemed Nazi to him. Well, his followers of the Tea Party have been organizing political education camps for children as young as 8.5-years old. We are happy that Mr. Beck has finally come out about his Nazism. This was a principled and courageous decision in a country that was as anti-Nazi as the Soviets. We remind Americans who will now condemn Mr. Beck for being a Nazi that in America we respect free speech. The essence of America is to be everything you can be. Mr. Beck is a staunch American patriot, and we fully support his right to be everything he can be, i.e., a Nazi. We now hope Mr. Beck will rise to the occasion to point out a great slander perpetrated by Americans, Soviets, European etc. regarding Adolf Hitler's Mein Kampf. The title is interpreted as "My struggle." But there is more to this. "Kampf" is obviously code for "Camp" The book is not a call to fascism. It is a beautiful exposition on democracy, where the majority rule. Hitler was not a fascist. He was a great defender of democracy. Why, when his people decided to invade Austria, Czechoslovakia, Poland, the Soviet Union, France, Holland, Belgium, Norway and Denmark, Hitler went to war because he believed in the right of the German majority to express its political opinions peacefully. Had those fools in the above-mentioned countries not open fired on German soldiers enacting the peaceful wish of the German people, there would have been no need for German soldiers to respond in pure self-defense. As for the murder of six million Jews, a million gypsies and homosexuals, and 10-million Soviet prisoners-of-war, all Hitler was doing is bowing to the will of the German majority. If that doesn't make Hitler the world's greatest democrat since Chengez Khan, we fear you do not understand democracy.

Oh, sorry. While passionately defending Mr. Beck's right to be a Nazi, we forgot to explain about "Mein Kampf". Once you realize it is really "My camp", and once you shift the second letter in the first word to the left, the third letter of the second word to the left, the fourth letter of the third word up, and the fifth letter of the fourth word down, you begin to understand what the book is about. It is a moving memoir of childhood of Hitler's struggles when he went to summer camp to find a clean potty. Understand that and you understand Glenn Beck, the great American patriot, and why he isn't included in the paintings of the signing of the American act of independence and the Constitution. After carefully crafting both documents, he trustingly went off to find a clean potty to do his morning biz. Then the slimeball commie-pinko fascist liberal deficit supporting confiscatory high taxing, Kenya born Obamacare job and granny killing democratic republicans just signed both documents behind Glenn's back. They made the situation worse by standing behind him as he sat on the potty, shouting in unison "Hell no, Glenn Beck can't go! USA, USA!" Even worse, they taunted him: "Two, Four, Six, Eight, Glenn Beck cannot defecate! USA, USA!" As to what they rhymed with "One, Three, Five, Seven", this is a family-friendly blog and we cannot repeat what the so called signers of the DOI and US Constitution said.

The next time you want to criticize this great patriot and disrespect his sufferings, you may want to walk in his shoes next time you need a clean potty, particularly when those well-know aggressive American women are shoving you aside in the line and leaping into the Men's bathrooms. And let's see how well you can produce when you have a lot of women 200-pounds and heavier, standing around you, suggestively slapping their hands with their baseball bats, and shouting "Glenn Beck can not pee, because his pee wee is so wee, USA USA!"

Congressman John F. Tierney has no imagination by his own admission Media quotes him as saying what has happened in Afghanistan is beyond imagination. What precisely has happened?
The Congressman is shocked, shocked that Afghan contractors hauling supplies for US have been paying off Afghan National Police including its commander and the Taliban to permit free passage of supplies.
We will leave to Mr. Bill Roggio of Long War Journal to decide if the good Congressman deserves the coveted LWJ Captain Renault Award. We debated the Orbat.com Klasse Klowne Awarde for him but felt the KKA was too minor for a man of his stature.
Is there really one person left in the world who didn't know US money was going to the Taliban? We don't know anyone who didn't know. Every American who has gone to Afghanistan, civil or military, private or Ambassador, dead or alive, know this.
There is something truly frightening about the good Congressman's shock. Is the Congress really so naive? These are the people who are responsible for running the country? A congressman who doesn't know about corruption? The august body known as the US Congress is the most corrupt in the democratic world. It is so corrupt Americans had to legalize corruption under the rubric of the First Amendment otherwise every single Congressperson as well as the US President and Vice-President would be sitting in jail awaiting trial.
The statement by the congressman is beyond imagination. And reader know the one thing Editor does not lack is imagination.
As for the rest of the report, that the US has lost ~$30-billion due to corruption in Afghanistan. Again we have to sigh. Don't people understand that wars breed waste and corruption? Or do people think a war can be run with the same financial controls as, say. General Electric? 10-years of war means an average of $3-billion a year. Rather than outrage, we are impressed. US has run a very tight ship considering this is a war zone. People also should remember that if you are going to contract darn nearly your entire Supply and Transportation chain to civilians, you're going to multiply the opportunity for corruption. This is not to say when the military did everything from transport to cooking and laundry you didn't have crooked soldiers making a profit. But the chances were less, you could easily pin the blame for thefts, and retribution was swift.
Anyone remember the two-millions cans of hairspray sent to South Vietnam at a time there were like six nurses in country?

0100 GMT July 25, 2011

Another Iranian N-scientist killed this time in Teheran in front of his house, by motorcycle borne assassins. Last year an important N-scientist died in a remote-triggered car bomb explosion. Motorcyclists attached magnetic bombs to two scoentists's cars and the bombs exploded second later. One of the targets escaped death. Associated Press says two other scientists have been killed in recent years.
To the Israelis we say: "Bad, bad bad. Put out your hand so we can smack you with a limp noodle."
Norway The time it took the police and an SF team to respond to the report of shooting is now estimated at nearer 60 minutes rather than the the initial estimate of 90 minutes. The Norwegian police had only an observation helicopter available. They could not get a RNoAF troop carrier anytime soon, so they set off by road for the 45-km trip. Once there they couldn't find a boat: one they commandeered sank. They took 60-minutes to arrive after being alerted, more time was lost before they got on to the island. An off-duty policeman on the island was among those killed. We have no idea if off-duty police carry their service handguns.
We'd mentioned yesterday the Norwegian police and troops did not kill the gunman. They surrounded him and asked him to throw down his weapons. He complied. No doubt they read him rights, and promised to bring his pink blankie, bunny slippers, and hot cocoa to him. Again, this is Norway and its for the Norwegians to decide how to approach a gunman, but we can assure reader back in the States there is no way anyone would have bothered asking him to throw down his weapons. He would have been shot on sight particularly as he continued shooting people till the last.
So another young singer buys the farm This time its a Brit who was famous for her addiction to alcohol and drugs. everyone is in "shock" and her family is "bereft". Well, the night before she died, this young lady purchased cocaine, ecstasy, and ketamine. We feel neither shock now sorrow. Our comment is: Good, there's another scumbag off the streets.
In the US we have our own very special Lindsey Lohan, who is inevitably given probation/rehab, and gets into trouble a couple more times she's on probation. She's served one short jail sentence. If this had been one of Editor's African-American or Hispanic or a "white trash" student, the judicial system would have locked her up long ago and thrown away the key. Lindsey Lohan keeps getting preferential treatment despite repeated probation violations.
People in UK and US talk about justice. There is no justice if you're poor or the wrong color. Someone needs to file suit against the California courts for giving preferential treatment to Lohan.
1996 Case where Indian-American was arrested for making improper campaign donations: we'd mentioned this gentleman yesterday, in the context of a Pakistani-Americans arrest for not registering as a foreign agent. Reader VK sent us the relevant URL, should you wish to check what that case was about http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1996-05-09/news/1996130058_1_gadhia-embassy-of-india-indian-embassy

0230 GMT July 24, 2011

Why was the Norwegian killer able to claim so many victims? (a) His victims were mainly children between the ages of 14 and 19; (b) Norwegians are into guns, but long guns not handguns, and obviously children are not going to bring their parents long guns with them for a camp; (c) Norwegians are a pacific people and were caught by surprise: you will never get away with shooting dead 80 Americans one after the other, and wounding well upward of a hundred others (d) the camp was held on a small island with no road access to the mainland; (e) Because Norway is peaceful, it took 90 minutes for a SWAT team to be helicopter into the island from Oslo, the capital: this delay could never happen in America.

This gentleman is a Christian fundamentalist, his object was to launch an anti-Islam jihad. Way to go, feller, just kill a few score of your country's own young people. That will surely show them Islamic Fundas.

Now, this gentleman has been charged with terrorism: 21 years maximum, and we know from people who have been - ahem - guests of HM Government in Norway that their jails have a considerably higher standard of living than most of us who read this blog in America. Norway also, of course, has no death penalty, because the Euros are oh so civilized, as compared to us barbaric Americans. So civilized that the SWAT team actually took the man alive.

Realistically, obviously this is for the Norwegians to decide. Nonetheless, as a parent and a grandparent, and as a school teacher who looks after children, as far as Editor is concerned, a death sentence is too lenient a punishment, even if Norway had the penalty. After all, a few seconds of pain and the gentleman will be off to the Downstairs Place. But then what does the Editor know. He just another barbaric American type.

And given the number of children the man murdered, no wonder no Islamic terror group has the least interest in claiming credit for this ghastly act.

The case of the America-based Pakistan agent US Government a few days ago charged two gentleman who were serving as a front for Pakistan Government and channeling money to politicians in Congress. They failed to register as foreign agents. Pakistanis are quite upset.
Will it make the Pakistanis feel better to know in the 1990s, right here in Maryland, and Indo-American was arrested for channeling money from the Indian Embassy to American Congresspersons?
Perhaps the Government of Pakistan can learn from the Indians. The Indians did not protest and make a bigger scene inviting even more attention. No one said a word.
What utter foolishness to protest an FBI case. This may come as a surprise to Government of Pakistan: the US FBI makes its case before it arrests anyone, and it takes months and years to make the case. This is because the FBI does not like to lose in court. It has a conviction rate of over 90%, last time someone from the FBI talked to us. Islamabad, your man is toast. Instead pof protesting better to say you have no idea who is this person and from where his money came.
We were unable to Google the Indian case because as far as Google is concerned, India and Pakistan are the same. So all we got as far as the eye could see was Native American Indians and the Pakistani case. Probably because the Pakistani gentleman was operating against India. We thought Google had enough sense to disintguish between "India" and "Indo-American" and varients.

0230 GMT July 23, 2011

1700 GMT

We are compelled to note that the two terror attacks in Norway which left 90+ dead appear to be the work of a right-wing, anti-Islam, and anti-multicultural white native-born Norwegian. He may have had an accomplice. Some Islamist terror groups quickly hailed the attack, but as quickly denied responsibility.

Readers will note we did not comment on the recent bomb blasts in Bombay. We will have no comment on the Oslo blasts. These are trivial incidents in the Global War On Terror. In war people die. It's not complicated.

You will also note we've stopped discussed the August 2 default deadline talks. One reason is that either way the Biggie Bigs will needs 40-ton semis to haul their loot to the bank, whereas you and I will be scrabbling for quarters. Of course, if we default, our children at least get to start with a clean slate. But that won't do any good unless the political system is changed. Hope of get a proper debt/budget deal that reduces debt to zero? 1 x 10^-10. Chances of a deal that reforms the political system? 1 x 10^-100.

Higgs Boson: You can run but you can't hide The Large Hadron Collider (European machine) may have located the elusive Higgs Boson. Even if it turns out LHC is wrong, scientists have pinned down its habitat to a band between 114 and 140 Giga Electron Volts.
Why is finding this elusive critter important? Because it is the last particle that must be observed to validate the Standard Model. Scientists have found the other 16 sub-atomic particles.
What is the Standard Model? It explains how matter in the universe formed. These 17 sub-atomic thinggys makes up the atoms of our universe.
There is actually an 18th particle that needs to be found, the graviton. If the graviton is found, it will explain gravity.
And what's the significance of explaining gravity? That we'll have a Unified Theory of Everything, the Holy Grail of particle physics.
What will the Unified Theory of everything do for you and me? Not much. It's not going to help you become a billionaire, and its not going to help me get a date. But if you're curious about the universe, UTOE will be a very big deal.
Will that be it for particle physics?
No, because each time we find an answer to Question 1, we'll be looking at 10 new questions. And then each of the answers will raise 10 more questions, ad infitium.
Isn't this hideously boring? Not really. Humans live to ask questions and seek answers. The answers pose more questions. That is what life is all about.
Disappointed? Sorry About That.
The Chinese DF-21 anti-carrier missile: Borrrrring Lot of people getting excited about the Chinese anti-carrier missile, see for example, http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_generic.jsp?channel=awst&id=news/awst/2011/07/18/AW_07_18_2011_p24-347899.xml&headline=China%20Details%20Anti-ship%20Missile%20Plans&next=10
The topic is so boring we can hardly keep our eyes open. So we're going to summarize our answer.
(a) You have to find the carrier to hit it. Are you sure you'll find it? Are you really sure? Really, really sure? Yes? Forget about it. You'll never find the carrier.
(b) Your missile depends on electronics links of many kinds. The carrier will use EMP to destroy your links. Oh, you have EMP too, including on the DF-21. How adorable. US will destroy your EMP links, you will get nowhere trying to destroy US links.
(c) DF-21 is hypersonic. Can't be intercepted. How cute. How wrong.
(d) US aircraft will have to fly hundreds and hundreds of kilometers to get at Chinese targets. Their payload will be minimal. Really, now, Chinese High Command: do you think this is back in the 1960s when US would have sent six carriers to eliminate Soviet naval bases accessing the Atlantic? Beijing, have you noticed US carrier doctrine has changed? Now the carriers don't approach till the defenses are taken down. Ever heard of cruise missiles?
This whole debate is so irrelevant Hello, Beijing. Any of you notice that US doctrine specifically reserves to itself the right of a first nuclear strike? US has never defined a threshold, and even if it has, we'd throw away that piece of paper because its a misdirect. What are you going to do if US attacks your naval bases with nukes after you launch an anti-carrier strike? Escalate to counter-city strikes against the US? You think the US doesn't know the cost of even one ICBM getting through? Do you honestly think an N-strike against your naval bases will not be accompanied by an all-out counterforce strike?
But you say: US doctrine talks of gradual escalation with pauses for evaluation before going on - or not - to the next level. Really? Where does it say that? You now haul out a hundred documents to make your point. Our suggestion: please use those documents for toilet paper. That's all they're good for. Do you honestly believe the US has laid out its true N-fighting doctrine in a series of papers released to the public? Listen, good buddies, good friends. Every bit of those public N-fighting doctrines are complete misdirects. If you don't know that, its not our place to educate you.
But, you say, we'll bomb Taiwan and South Korea and Japan, so we'll be raising the stakes very high for the US without threatening the US. Now, now, no need to get upset, but if you think the US gives one little darn about these allies, you are sadly mistaken. US will use your local area N-strike as an excuse to wipe you off the face of the planet.
The point is, you don't get it There is an Indian cute-baby word, choochee. It means little and cute. Beijing, you think you're hechkuva big threat. No, no, and no. You are a choochee threat. The Red Ruskis were a real threat. Did that stop American carriers from exercising in the Norwegian Sea and their submarines from operating off Arctic Russia. No. What do you think would have happened if the Red Ruskies had made a grab for - say - Greenland? You don't know? At last something we can agree, because neither do we. And that's the whole point, isn't it. Since the Russians didn't know what the US would do, it didn't seize Greenland.
The entire Chinese High Command publically blows wind. That's what the East Wind is. They blow wind to assuage their ego and to justify their control of ordinary Chinese. But may we remind the Chinese people of something? Words aside, your leadership is so cautious that even during the 1965 and 1971 Indo-Pakistan Wars and the 1986-87 crisis where PLA sent eight divisions and several independent regiments to reinforce your front opposite Northeast India because Beijing was worried India was about to attack, Beijing did not make even one offensive move against India. Why? Because your High Command is realistic, and it knows opening fire creates situations where no one is in control any more and everything blows up.
Doubt us? Reread your histories of World War I and World War II. Reread the history of the Korean War, where the US made the mistake of thinking it had the situation under control when it crossed the 38th Parallel. Or rather, made the mistake of thinking it didn't need to go all out if it wanted to win.
Just remember: US may be decadent, US may be degenerate, US may be falling to pieces economically. There is a single race of natural born killers on this planet, one race that loves killing and does it better than anyone. Yes, its the US. You don't have to take our advice. Go ahead, push the US. Just don't blame us for what comes later.
Now pardon us. This is a boring discussion at pre-school level. We're going off to take a nap.
(Thanks to reader Luxembourg with initiating a private dialog on the DF-21.)

0230 GMT July 22, 2011

Another strange day. Fought one's way through traffic to Dulles Airport, normally a 35-minute run but took 55-minutes. Okay, that's Washington traffic, even though its between 2-3PM, before the rush hour. Picked up Mrs. R. IV and set off back home, 110-minute trip including 55-minutes on the infamous Interstates 270 and 495 interchange, which may be America's biggest bottleneck, nearly an hour to cover 3-miles. Outside the heat index is 112, and the car is not, of course, air-conditioned. Who has money for air-conditioned cars. Editor starts to pass out if the temperature is above 80, so how he made it home is a mystery. Mrs. R. IV has left her car at Editor's place before heading overseas, as Editor's place is safer.
So Mrs. R. IV comes in to say hello to the youngster, who is glued to the computer upstairs. Glued is too weak a word: if you don't keep after him, he will get up after his sleep, go to the computer, and neither go to the bathroom or eat for up to six hours. So Mrs. R IV calls upstairs, yoo-hoo and all that. Kid does not hear, so I suggest she just go upstairs. Instead she gets the cell phone out and calls him: the distance to his room is 7-meters. Editor thought this happened only in Hollywood comedies, then had to remind himself his life is a Hollywood comedy, and an exceedingly bad one, Zero stars and all that.
While waiting for youngster to descend, Mrs. R. IV tells Editor that they now have a Ring Road dedicated bus lane for fast buses - Delhi Ring Road is like the Washington Beltway, though probably shorter. That's great, says Editor. Mrs. R. IV says they've used the median, so whenever there's a bus-stop, passengers have to risk crossing four lanes of utterly stark raving mad traffic. Every now and then someone gets run over, and that's when the buses are not speeding and get into accidents killing a few more people at a time. Editor wonders if this is a good time to apply for US citizenship. Who in his reasonable mind wants to be a citizen of a country that builds a fast bus lane in the median of the capital's beltway, with hapless passengers having to cross four lanes of fast traffic? Then Editor reminds himself he has never been in his reasonable mind, might as well carry on with the Indian citizenship.
Then he gets an email from someone who's obviously very young and has somehow got a copy of Editor's first book (it was actually his fourth, three were stopped by the censor). This young fan says it was heartbreaking to read in the intro that the Editor could never pay his bills despite leading the most modest of lives, and he hopes things are better now. This gets Editor to thinking: obviously he was very poor before he came back to the US. He thinks back 50 years, and discovers he has always been poor. This is very uplifting to his morale.
About ten more weird things happened, but you're likely saying "where is the news?"

The news

Greece has another $115-billion bailout, and will be allowed to selectively default if things don't stabilize. Amazing: free enterprise Americans want the banks and others made whole at the taxpayers expense, socialist Europe is insisting the greedy lenders take a haircut.
A reader writes Dear Editor, you often write approvingly of the need to stick to the Constitution, and you also say that your grasp of US history prior to World War Two is tenuous. You might be interested to know the Founding Fathers were dead against political parties. They called them "factions" and they warned of the danger factions posed. And indeed, extreme fractionalization is what's tearing this country apart. So if you are truly a Constitutionalist, please call for declaring political parties illegal. This will not violate the First Amendment against free speech, because everyone will still be free to speak, they just won't be able to organize political parties.
To the Editor this makes perfect sense. So say 30- to 60-years without parole for joining a political party and defiling the Constitution? We can hear The People cheering.
Lakshar Gar, Afghanistan Yesterday we wrote that the British Army has given over the town of Lakshar Gar to the Afghans, and we moaned about just this one city being handed over, but then thought, okay, you have to start somewhere.
Today we learned the Afghans are actually in charge of 1-square-mile (2.4 hectares) of the city, and the Americans and British are right there to respond immediately should the Afghans get into trouble. What's more the British feel that securing a part of the city is one thing, when the Afghan forces have to go into the countryside, its going to be another thing.
After banging head against stone wall for a few hours, Editor stopped. After all, they have to start the handover business somewhere, right?
Mossad Vultures and Sharks From UK Telegraph: "Saudi Arabian security forces claim Mossad sent a vulture into their airspace to gather information. They say the bird was carrying a GPS transmitter and a tag bearing an identification code from Tel Aviv University. A few weeks earlier, an Egyptian official claimed a shark that attacked tourists off the coast of Sharm el Sheikh had been placed there by the Israeli spy service." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/8649632/Mossads-most-audacious-plots.html
Okay, maybe that vulture was bearing a tracking device from Tel Aviv University because it was part of a TAU experiment? Collaring birds and animals with GPS is hardly unknown. In any case, how were the Israelis seeing anything? Oh, right, of course - how silly of us. Obviously those devilish Israelis had replaced the vultures eyes with 5mm cameras. Something must have gone wrong with Israeli reconsats so they had to send a specially reconstructed vulture to spy on Saudi.
As for the Mossad shark, no doubt before biting a tourist it introduced itself as "Bond. James Bond", then the shark played the piano while singing the theme from Jaws.
If those Egyptians who came up with this were working for Editor, he has a simple remedy for these LSD dreams. Take a 5-kilo steel bar, raise above head, arms fully extended, and run laps in the afternoon summer sun. A light touch of the Cat each time the arms start sagging. A few kilometers straightens out anyone's head.

0230 GMT July 21, 2011

The world grows exceptionally boring, and in Editor's part of it, exceptionally hot. Today the heat index may hit 115, and tomorrow perhaps even 120. For six days, as it is, Editor has been cowering inside to escape the heat. He has not made it even to gym. As for yard work, for the first time in his life he's had to hire someone to do it for him. He has become so allergic to poison ivy and poison oak he has merely to walk by a bush or tree and that's it. Okay, the heat alone or the poison ivy alone Editor can take. Both together? No, and its a reminder old age is creeping up. It seems so wrong when one doesn't have a job to spend money carefully horded for bad times for cleaning up the yard. But the City if Takoma Park has codes that must be respected.
Then there's George RR Martin's fifth volume, A Dance with Dragons. First it takes up an enormous amount of productive time even if you are a fast reader - 15 hours in this reader's case, and it's no use trying to focus on other work while the volume is lying open, yet unfinished. No one can doubt Martin has a way with words. But look, if the job is to just keep writing a thousand pages every couple of years, with the characters first going east, and then going west, and then going north, and dying only to be resurrected, even the Editor can do that sort of book, a thousand pages a year if he had an advance freeing him from other work. Folks, you could write a six-generation book of 10,000 pages based on the Mogul Empire without seriously exerting oneself. But then is one writing, or is one generating commercial product to keep generating sales (Ms. J.K. Rowling, please note.) Tolkien's Lord of the Rings is what? - 1400 pages? But that is a story you remember for life. They say when Lord of the Rings took off, Tolkien's publishers hounded him to write more because they say $$$$ signs falling from the sky. So he promised to write the four volume Silmarillion. It didn't work. He was an honest man, and he knew he had told the story he wanted in Lord of the Rings. Editor wishes Martin, Rowling, even Robert Jordan all the best. But writers must stay true to their readers. And that means not being lazy by keep a universe going forever and a day just to rake in the shekels.
Talking about shekels: readers will notice we haven't said a word about the deficit deadline. Two reasons. On one level, one wishes that the whole rotten, suppurating, stinking financial system goes down. It is so corrupt it needs to be destroyed so we can start from scratch, just like our political system. Revolutions grow old and calcified, and our revolution is, after all, 235 years old. We were the revolutionaries, but now we are the status quo, where the rich exploit everyone else to grow richer, and everyone else grows poorer. The more one studies this in detail, the less relish one has for the task. American workers wages have not really risen in 40 years. At the other extreme, last year a hedge-fund manager walked away with $5-billion. The reason we're not having a recovery is not just there are no jobs, most of the people with jobs live hand-to-mouth: after they pay for housing, food, medical care, and transportation, they have nothing left, because wages have been forced down, down, down, and the decline continues. After all, its great to say that market demand sets wages, but the worker in China is happy to work for $3/hour, the worker in India for $2/hour. Given the cost of living in America, how can the person making even $12/hour, forget $7/hour do more than survive? A society where the rich are free to make as much as they can while ordinary people stay the same decade after decade is not a just society. Its fine for those on top to snicker and say "we're making it, you aren't, your bad luck; we're just smarter than you". But when a majority of people see there is no hope for their lives to change materially no matter how hard they work, they get angry. When they get angry, countries burn. Doubt that? Try Russia 1917, Germany 1932, China 1950. Is this what we want for America, a bloody revolution? Likely whether we want it or not, this is what we will get one day.

0230 GMT July 20, 2011

The Empire Strikes Back US, UK, and Netherlands arrested 20 hackers, apparently all from the Anonymous group that among other things hacked PayPal after the later froze accounts related to Wikileaks at the request of US. Sixteen of the 20 are in the US.
We sincerely hope an example is made of all of them. Hacking is no longer a prank carried out by extra-smart young computer geeks with not enough to do. As for the alleged belief that companies hire hackers after they are caught to help plug holes in their security, these gentlemen will not be doing much by way of jobs while in hail, and companies these days want you punished for the economic losses hackers cause them.
We haven't mentioned that the Wikileaks founder has appealed the UK court's ruling he can be extradited to Sweden because there wasn't another story we could attach that news to, and it didn't seem worthwhile doing a story solely devoted to the pale and pathetic psycho. In his appeal, his lawyer admitted that well, yes, he may have gone further than permissible under Swedish law, but you see, he didn't break any English law, and his trial in Sweden will be political. Good luck proving that, sleaze bag.
UK hands security of Lakshar Gah to Afghanistan Afghans also took over Mehter Lam city, capital of eastern Laghman province. Next up with be Kabul and Panjshir Provinces, and Mazar-i-Sharif and Herat cities.
We thought when NATO was speaking of handing over seven provinces to Afghanistan it meant provinces, where so far there are only three provinces and four cities. But perhaps the provinces in question will be handed over later this year.

0100 GMT July 19, 2011

Libya: Something Odd Is Going On US says it has been in direct, face-to-face talks with Libya. Since the US?West have recognized the rebels and have been trying to kill President Gaddaffi, one can guess the only thing to be discussed is the terms of Gaddaffi's departure. Hope so, anyway: the military campaign is so pathetically painful one doesn't even want to read the news.
Iraq These days we hear a lot of talk that if the US leaves Iraq, Teheran will take over. Where this kind of truly weird thinking comes from, we are at a loss to understand. Iraq is one of the dozen or so countries of which Editor has first hand knowledge and experience. The simplest way to put it is to say there is likely no country in the world as xenophobic as Iraq.
So people really think because Iran is Shia and Iraq is now Shia that the Iraqis are going to kneel and kiss the Iranian butooties? Yes, Iran has armed cells all over Iraq. Yes, many Iraqi clerics are Iran trained. But let's just take a step back for a minute. When the Sunnis ruled Iraq, the Shias had no one to help them but Iran. It was natural the Iraqi Shias turned to Iran. Nowhere does it follow now that the Iraqi Shias are free that they will put up with Iranian meddling. Persians are Persians. Iraqis are Iraqis. Read any basic history of the region and you'll see how completely different Iran and Iraq are.
Sure, Iraq will have trouble first containing, then expelling, the Iranians. But Americans have to see one reason this is so is because the Americans have stopped the Iraqis from being Iraqis. Once the Americans are out of the way, the Iraqis are going to hunt down and kill the Iranians; and human rights, the law, courts be darned. The Iraqis have already started doing this to Sunnis who still have a taste for rebellion. We know from experience of the last 8 years that the Iraqis are ready to slaughter every single Sunni who opposes them. We should also understand that the Iraqis will do the same to the Iranians.
Then people are floating the theory that Iraq will not be able to resist the Iranian military. Question One: whose fault is that? Its the fault of the Big Fat Fools in Washington who run our foreign policy. They want to keep Iraq disarmed to that our lovely BFFs the Saudis don't feel threatened, as they felt threatened by Saddam. The original Rumsfeld-Brenner plan called for a three-division light infantry Iraq Army. They deemed it sufficient. So now Iraq has what? 17-18 divisions and growing, and that's insufficient?
Ah, the Big Fat Fool Wise Men say, the Iraqi army is not mechanized, it will not be able to stand up to the Iranians. So the Iranians have now suddenly become the Germans and are going to slash their way to Baghdad? Has anyone looked at the Iranian Army recently? Its tank and mechanized "divisions" are brigades, as are its infantry "divisions". Has anyone figured out the logistics alone of sending a quarter-million men to Baghdad? And has anyone figured out how exactly the Iranians are supposed to advance even fifty kilometers before being destroyed by US airpower, which even if not in the theatre, will be in action within six hours (cruise missiles and carrier aircraft), with 24 hours for the first USAF wing to start its attack sorties.
And none of this answers the question we should ask first: why exactly would Iran want to cross an international border when it knows darn well the US, Brits, French< Saudis, Israelis etc etc are just waiting for an excuse to level the country?
Now, even the Big Fat Fool Washingtoons are not THAT stupid. Editor knows you find that difficult to believe, given the way the country is being run. What the Big Fat Fools are trying to do is to scare the Iraqis into requesting a sizeable US contingent to say. US has openly threatened Iraq: turn us out and you wont be able to count on to help you if Iran attacks (sob).
Now, we aren't in Iraq, and we aren't the betting sort, but Editor can assure readers that each time the US issues one of the threats, the Iraqis take another major inhale of their hookahs, and tap the sides of their heads with a forefinger, silently saying "We always knew the Americans were crazy, but now they have just totally lost it." They're just not saying it to our face because they're a terribly polite people.
Then there's the Washington theory that if Iraq builds a military big enough to defend itself (it already has, it just needs to mechanize some of its infantry divisions), the other countries in the Mideast are going to get upset. Well, what of it? Let them deal with it. And lets have the Washingtoons answer this question: why precisely would Iraq want to attack another Mideast country. Oh but Saddam did...yes, and Saddam is now dead because he did. This is not lost on the Iraqis, quite aside from which Saddam had a history with the Gulf/Saudi kingdoms, which modern Iraq does not.
The reason the Washingtoons are floating these theories is that they are trying to justify maintaining a permanent presence in Iraq. Well, you know what? We liberated Iraq. We started the country on a democratic path. Now the Iraqis are democratically asking us to leave. Sure, there are people who for their local interest don't want us to leave, the Sunnis for one. We've already betrayed the Kurds, so the Kurds could less if they saw the last of us. But factional interests cannot rule the democratic majority.
Someone came up with yet another excuse the other day: America has sunk too much treasure and blood to leave. Hoo Boy. Did the Iraqis ask us to invade them? Do the Iraqis give one withered date that we sank "too much" treasure and blood? Should they feel responsible for our stupidities? Well, they don't, and sorry about that.
Let's remember out own words: we're here to help the Iraqis and we wont stay a day longer than they ask us. They're asking us to go. Let's go. If circumstances change, they are free to ask us to come back. And we're free to refuse. It really is that simple.

0100 GMT July 18, 2011

Bamiyan Province first to be handed over to Afghanistan Government Six more provinces will follow as part of the drawdown of US/NATO troops. Six hundred and fifty US troops left week without replacement, the first installment in a 10,000 personnel drawdown by the end of 2011.
Meanwhile, UN has withdrawn 14 Taliban leaders from its sanctions list at the request of Mr. Karzai. This move, of course, would have been okayed by the US. Another sign of how the US is fighting to get talks going. Might this be the wrong time to ask why the US couldn't have negotiated in 2001 for custody of OBL? We've been told it probably wouldn't have worked at that time. We're not condescending to anyone, but one has to ask "why wouldn't it have worked?" The Afghan and Pakistan tribals will sell their mother if the price is right. All this business about "our protection" and "our hospitality" is merely a smoke screen to get a better price. OBL probably paid the Taliban $10-million a year for sanctuary. In those days it probably represented most of Afghanistan's government revenue. So perhaps $25-million wouldn't have done it. But at $100-million they would have handed OBL over along with all the donkeys in the country.
Readers K and G send a link to a brilliant 4-minute rant by a British commentator, made after the death of OBL. Obviously we think its brilliants because its sentiments are our sentiments too. The ranter says President Obama goes to great lengths to say we are not at war with Islam. Unfortunately, Islam is at war with the West. The ranter says OBL should have been hung up at the 9/11 site with a pork chop stuffed in his mouth. All we can see is "amen, brother". Click for Rant
UK Reinforces Libya Operation with four - count 'em - four Typhoon fighters to add to the 12 already in action. We feel faint at this "massive" reinforcement. The way things are going, an air force with 100 combat aircraft will soon rank as among the major forces in the word, and interventions will be carried out by four fighters. We are not joking).
Somalia Drought It is said of some people that if they didn't have bad luck, they wouldn't have any luck at all. The same can be said of countries like Somalia. The entire country is once again facing a food crisis, with more than half in a state of emergency.
The situation is so bad that the Islamic group Al-Shabaab is permitting UN workers into areas under its control, from where they were previously banned. On its part Al-Shabaab is adhering to UN rules that food aid has to be distributed equally and fairly without political consideration. Anything that makes this hard-line Islamist group act reasonable has to be a life-or-death situation.
A $5-billion annual paycheck? That's what the US's top hedge fund manager took home last year. This tells you why America is headed for history's dustbin. What exactly is it this man produced? All he did was manipulate pieces of paper and gamble. And this kind of money is made by A because B lost the gamble. It is no more productive than playing poker.

0230 GMT July 17, 2011

Libya rebels actually defeat a loyalist attack Rebel forces are parked 20-km to the east of the oil town Brega, where they've been stuck for weeks. But they did manage to beat back an attack on their positions by loyalists. Clearly the loyalists still are in a mood to fight, though in honesty what is being called an "offensive" in Libya is 2-300 soldiers who make a thrust and then retire if they meet opposition. A rebel offensive often has even fewer men than that.
To the south of Tripoli, rebels are still stalled 100-km from the capital. They lost ground last week after loyalists in a convoy of 12 trucks launched a surprise raid, but the rebels seems to have recovered their positions.
There is no news from the west of Tripoli.
US recognizes rebels, may now release frozen Libyan funds This is just the Editor grousing, and you can ignore it if you like. But we think it very, very peculiar that first the US and NATO should first illegally attack Libya, then say: "Woopsies, we can't release the money because it belongs to the Government of Libya."
Yes, we realizes as far as the US/West is concerned their war is not illegal because they got a pseudo resolution passed in the UN allowing them to protect civilians. But that definition about protecting citizens is getting so stretched it is squeaking in pain. If you want to be lawyer-ish, you can argue till the cows home and go to the glue factors that what US/West is doing is legal. The reality is, it is not because Gaffy Duck has not harmed the US?West in any way, and what the interventions are doing is regime change.
As far as Editor is concerned that is all to the greater good. His objection is to hypocrisy. Kill Gaffy by all means, but why cant we say "we're doing that because it's to our advantage" and be done with the stupid rationalizations. There is a simple reason for telling the truth. If you lie, you confuse yourself more than anyone else. Since the US/West is lying through its toofies, it comes up against these strange situations where besides a few hundred million dollars mainly from Qatar, no one has really given meaningful aid even though they have their paws on $50-$80-billion of Libyan money. Then since you're lying, you get into addition trouble because you paint yourself into the corner on the question of arming the rebels. Cant do it, the interventionists are saying, because its illegal.
Isn't it easier to realize as far as the world is concerned the whole venture is illegal, and the best way to resolve matters is to go all-out to defeat Gaffy? This entire farce could have been ended three months ago. And the longer it goes on, the weaker the US/West position looks.
People don't respect people who make up their own definition of legality. They respect people who get results. Possession is not nine-tenths of the law, it is eleven-tenths of the law. So please, Washington, London, Paris and so on. You've made laughing stocks of yourself that you cannot defeat a man who has less than 3-4000 effective soldiers. This misadventure has done so much harm to the US image of decisive power you'd think Woody Allen was conducting the war...Wait a minute, stop right there. We intended to be mordant, but it occurs to us that actually Woody Allen would do a MUCH better job of winning that the Government of the US.
OMG! We've made progress in Helmand Province! We are so great! This news is so stunning that it puts VE and VJ Days into pathetic insignificance. What a victory! Greater than Midway! Greater than Stalingrad! Greater than the Battle of Britain! Declare a week of national celebration! More awesome than Jericho! More inspiring than Marathon! Trafalgar? Meh. who cares about Trafalgar when we've got Helmand.
Oh, sorry, we forgot what we've got in Helmand. The governor of Sangin District in Helmand province can finally leave his compound after four years! Isn't that the most amazing thing you've ever heard of?
An get this! The UK Telegraph says that the US/UK paid a terrible price for securing Sangin District! Why, in four years 28 British soldiers and 38 US Marines have died! That is more than 1 every month! You thought the Somme was a battle? You though Gettysburg was a battle? How wrong you are. The MOST IMPORTANT BATTLE OF ALL TIME HAS BEEN FOUGHT AND WON in Sangin district!
After we finish celebration, can we please start the court-marshals of the British and American generals that have served us so poorly? Back in Stalin's days, our generals would have been shot at the front itself. Ah, the good old days. In fairness, Stalin didn't shoot a lot of generals for incompetence. It was cowardice he couldn't take, though by our western relaxed standards a lot of that cowardice would be reckoned as "can't be helped" and "oh, jolly bad luck" stuff. Stalin was a great believer in redemption and second chances. He gave his messed up generals a chance to do what they should have done in the first place: stick it out and die honorably. After all, generals are always telling the men to hold till the last round and the last man. In the 1962 Sino-Indian War this was the most frequently issued order. Seems only fair the generals should have to also abide by it.

0100 GMT July 16, 2011

Indian Artillery Divisions Two of our readers working together have positively identified the third Indian artillery division as the 42nd, in South Western Command. The first two are 40th and 41st. The fourth division was approved by the government this past June, for Eastern Command.
So orbat enthusiasts should be careful not to give the artillery divisions as part of India's divisional count. The divisions are not used in western armies because they are composed of corps/army artillery brigades (US artillery group, though America seems to have moved away from that usage. Several groups used to form an artillery brigade).
FYI the division count is 36 with two more sanctioned: 1 Armd, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 31 Armd, 33 Armd, 36, 39, 54, 56, 57, and 71, Editor personally had a lot of trouble with 71 when the number first began to be mentioned because it is way out of sequence. We'd been told to look for a 55 Div. These decisions are made very casually in the relevant Army HQ office, so unless you actually know that person its difficult to know the rationale for something completely off-sequence. The closest we've been able to get to it is that 71 is supposed to commemorate the 1971 victory, but please don't take this as proved.
Talking about 56 Division, Editor was originally told to look for it in 1987-88. It didn't come up till 20 years later. India often goes back on plans to raise new divisions, and numbers also change before raising.
Now, of course, you have the Internet, enthusiasts communicate freely with each other, and the Government of India in general is much more relaxed about orbat stuff. But back in Editor's day, it was a thankless, acutely difficult, and dangerous business. The frustrating thing was the foreign military attaches had the information, but an Indian citizen was breaching the Official Secrets Act if he collected the data. This act was nothing to fool around with: you basically had to prove yourself innocent rather the prosecution prove you guilty. And of course, after the government investigators had beaten you for days, weeks, or months, you were ready to admit to anything, even to being a Martian spy.
In Editor's case he was never directly threatened. But once, when the government agency in question found him less cooperative than they wished, they simply went to his house and picked up Mrs. Rikhye who was just getting into the house after returning from college classes. That was absolutely against the law for various reasons, but you can be sure having Mrs. R. sitting with the Editor in the interrogation room - and complaining bitterly Editor was getting her late for her party - changed the Editor's mind very quickly about the level of cooperation he should give the government agency.
You can also see the problems Editor had Mrs. R. You'd think she'd be a little bit - just a very little bit - concerned with his situation. No. It became all about getting her late for her party. The interrogators could have been pulling out Editor's teeth with pliers for all she cared. And to add insult to injury, she told her friends it was all very dramatic and exciting to have these cars screech to a halt around her, see a passel of burley gentleman emerge, and be kidnapped (for that's what it was, even if it was the government doing it). Thank you Mrs. R.
Another time the agency in question decided to try psychological warfare. He was told to the agency's HQ at 10AM sharp. Then they wouldn't speak to him - or even look at him - for the whole day. At 5 PM Editor would leave with the rest of the office, and return at 10 the next morning. Naturally this was a bit discombulating, because you never know when if you are going home or if they're going to take one to the court and get a 15-day remand. That allows them to keep you prisoner in their offices while the work over you. In ordinary cases Indian judges are fairly careful about giving the authorities remand because the judge knows jolly well what the interrogation involves. But in national security cases, the judge will give remand as many times as s/he is asked - traitors and spies have no rights, obviously. Moreover, Editor son, then just 7, was at the family home in the mountains, waiting every day for Dad to come home from Delhi. He didn't have a mom at that stage, and it was very hard to Editor's nerves to find a phone on Friday night and call to tell the youngster dad wasn't going to be for at least anoither week.
This traitor and spy business was particularly annoying to Editor because he was trying to locate the traitors and couldn't say a word. It is intensely aggravating when the people you uncover as taking "favors" from a foreign government - oh what the heck, its in the past now - the Soviet government from 1970 to 1982, and the US government from 1982 till when Editor left in 1990 - are using their official position to get you detained and then telling parliament and the press they expect to arrest you for spying any minute now. Raises the blood pressure, hearing that from the real spies.
Anyway. We drift. so there was nothing to do but report as scheduled every day, knowing full well if your hosts kept you Mrs. R would not even be informed you weren't coming home - that news would probably have been met with glad rejoicing by Mrs. Rikhye. Editor has just one simple rule: Curfew was at 2AM, if she was going to stay out longer, she should let Editor know. Editor didnt have a phone, and cell phones weren't around, so that meant she'd actually have to take a break from partying and come home before setting off again. Of course, even when she got a cell phone (in the US) she would get very angry at having to say she wouldn't be home. But that's another story. To wit, it was not a nice feeling that one had no money for a lawyer, or for bail, and the arrangement with the one person who could make a single call and say "Let the man go" was that under no conditions was the Editor to contact him. You kind of feel helpless.
We drift again. So, a day went by. Two days went by. Five days went by. Editor decided he may as well have a book to read since he was sitting on a hard bench in an unairconditioned room in the middle of the hot season. So he checked out the official history of the Royal Navy in the Mediterranean in World War II. It was a heavy duty book - Editor's right wrist is still injured from holding it. After Volume 1 came Volume 2, then came Volume 3. Then it was time to go on to the British part of the strategic Bombing Survey. Volume 1, done. Volume 2, done. Volume 3, done. Volume 4 - of a sudden the head of the investigating section strolls up and says: "What are you doing here, Rikhye?"
So Editor tugged his forelock and shuffled his feet and mumbled "You told me to be here, y're honour".
"I did?", says the worthy. "What on earth for?"
More shuffling, tugging the forelock, looking at the floor and mumbling: "Don't know, sir. You told me five weeks ago to come every day and I've coming every day."
"That's just absurd, Rikhye. Go away."
So Editor went away. Now get this. The room in which the investigators had parked him was literally, truly, in the middle of the office. All hallways led off from that room. The entire office crisscrossed the room multiple times every single day. Not one person asked him what he was doing there. He may as well have been a piece of furniture. Actually, he was worse off, because the furniture got dusted every day. Us spies just never get any respect.
The very worst part was this: after wasting the 20 best years of his life, 25-45, Editor realized the terrible truth one day. No one person cared that every Indian official of importance was selling out. By year 20 he had gotten so fed up he was ready to go to the Prime Minister and say, "look, does no one really care?" Well, he asked for an interview via a friend of the PMs, and the friend - as is understandable - wanted to know what it was about. "I want to tell the PM that the whole darned government from top to bottom is selling out the country."
The friend got a strange look in his eyes. "what do want the PM to do?" he asks. "Obviously I want him to take action," I said. The friend sighed and looked far away for a long time. Then he said "George-" Editor's name used to be George in those days. "Don't you understand that the PM doesn't care? Don't you understand no one cares. Everyone has sold out. The PM has sold out. I've sold out." Well, of course Editor knew that, but he'd still hoped shame might work. The friend continued: "I thought you wanted to see the PM over the commercial airliner deal."
"What commercial airliner deal?" says the Editor.
"The one where you're representing one of the potential candidates."
"But I'm not representing anyone. You think I'd live on top of garage with no air conditioner, no telephone, and a bicycle for transportation, to say being behind on the rent?" Editor said indignantly.
The friend sighed tolerantly. "Everyone knows you're a smart operator and play the poor college researcher to evade attention. I have it on best authority you actually work for XYZ firm and you had a hand in the helicopters too. Made a tidy one million US off it."
Who gave you that information?" said Editor. The friend named a name.
"But that's one of the people whose completely sold out and has been defaming me all over town to destroy my credibility!" Editor said, most indignant. "That's why I need to see the PM!".
The friend soothingly said - in the manner one uses with mad people - "Of course, of course. But unless you give me a hard currency check as a token of your affection for the PM, he will not see you. Its your choice how long you want to keep up this pretence about not being an agent - among all the other stuff you do."
"Like what?" Editor challenged.
"Like work for government intelligence and the CIA. I'm not accusing you of having sold out because everyone knows you were born in the States."
"I was not born in the States but in West Punjab and I do not work for the CIA."
"Then what have you being doing here for 20 years?" he asked.
"Trying to ferret out the anti-nationalists."
The friend sighed. "That story again. I just said no one cares because we're all sold out. If you aren't, far from being the ultra smart operator everything thinks you are, you must be a very stupid person indeed. That I cannot believe." We stared at each other a while. Then Editor said: "May I borrow a thousand dollars from you?"
"Sure," said the friend, reaching into his safe. (Keeping foreign currency in those days was very illegal). He handed over 20 fifty dollar bills before saying: "May I ask what its for?"
"An airplane ticket.to Washington where my family now is."
"What an excellent idea. While you're there, get me a contact for supplying these specialized batteries for the Army- I'll let you keep 2.5% of the "commission". He reached back in the safe. Editor dutifully wrote down the battery names and part numbers. He tossed the notes into the first public toilet he came across and shortly thereafter left India, never to return. And he never will. Enough is enough.
So: if you're a young person reading this and still want to be a spy as long as you expect to get nowhere really fast, please do take up the career. After decades, Editor is firmly convinced 99% of what spies do is completely without any significance. Its a game we play to convince ourselves we are very patriotic and brave. Carl Jung used to talk about every man's need to have a secret, around which he organizes his life. Being a spy gives you the best legal way to be an outlaw and it gives you a great secret. Makes you feel important.
But surely, you will say, that 1% of the time what a spy does is important. Sure it is. But that's the 1% on which no one believes you anyway. and there really is no excitement. Spying is the world's most boring job. It is even more boring that sitting your computer to count down by ones from - say 1 x 10^24. when you're watching that counter roll back, at least something is happening.
(Yes, yes, you guessed correct: Editor has no date and is disgruntled.)

0200 GMT July 15, 2011

Serious Brain Freeze Tonight.

Minnesota Listens To Orbat.com, Reaches Budget Accord Warned by our piece yesterday that taking away the people's beer could start a chain reaction where the ruling elite ends up hung on lampposts, Minnesota hurriedly arrived at a budget deal overnight. The Governor will use budget tricks to raise $1.4-billion, and the Republican controlled legislative chambers will agree. That's because, you see, the tax increases are not real tax increases, but accounting stuff like delaying payments to schools. So Governor Dayton continues the smoke and mirror and giant snails smoking hookahs or whatever they do in Minnesota that Governor Pawlenty used to "avoid" raising spending while he not only raised spending, he pushed through huge tax increases on property. Then this gent comes before the US and claims he is a fiscal conservative. Truly America is losing it.
More seriously, commentators are asking that since the deal now agreed to is identical to one that was on the table some weeks ago, why didn't people agree then?
Commentators are so silly. The difference is Orbat.com had not warned Minnesota of the true consequences of the beer license fiasco. Now that Minnesota legislators see clearly what they're risking - their lives - they did a deal in a few hours. No need to thank Editor, he was simply doing his public duty.

0200 GMT July 14, 2011

Minnesota, now you've gone too far...The brewing company MillerCoors, which has a 38% share of the beer market in Minnesota didn't get its annual licenses renewed in time before the government shutdown. So its going to have to remove its products from store shelves.
We think this shows that the politicians of the right have lost sight of what politics is about. Its about keeping ordinary people repressed so that the elite (which includes politicians of every stripe) can corner the cake and leave the stale bread for the peasants, which is you and me.
An essential part of keeping the peasants (you and me, again) down is to have cheap cable, cheap beer, and cheap junk food. This leaves the peasants (aka ordinary folks) with their minds and bodies stupefied. So we, the ordinary people, are unable to get it together to revolt, because frankly, we can't even get off the couch.
If you hit Miller Coors distribution, it wont be the end of the world because there are other brands. But for one brief moment ordinary people will come out of their coma to say: "OMG! If they can take Miller Coors off the market, one day it could be all beers!"
They will, of course, after thinking that relapse into their coma and will drink something else for the duration. BUT: once people come out of the cable/junk-food/beer coma for just one minute and actually THINK for five seconds, you get that frightful The Emperor Has No Clothes! syndrome. After that, even if the ordinary folks revert to their default state, a coma, you can never tell what will trigger off the next break in the 24-hour movie which the elite plays for us, to fool us into thinking the movie is the reality. Then you just never knows when the whole thing blows up. And when it does, please for the elite to remember you have a lot of lampposts needing decoration in downtown Minneapolis.
So please, Democratic Governor and Republican legislators, in the interest of your own survival, meet at least for the 30-minutes needed to authorize the beer licensing folks to do their work.
BTW, Mr. Democratic Governor: if the people go berserk, don't think they will remain rational enough to go for your fancy logic-chopping such as "Its the Republicans you should blame for the shut-down". They will be screaming "hang the politicians", not "hang the Republicans" or whatever. Think about what we are saying.
Moody's threatens US debt downgrade The ratings agency has taken the first step toward a downgrade, it has begun reassessing the risk of US debt. Moody's says a default could trigger a downgrade from AAA to AA, even it is for a short time. And is says unless even if default is avoided, unless a long-tern debt deal happens it will have to consider knocking the US down from AAA Stable to AAA Negative.
Standard and Poor already pulled the US down to an AAA Negative rating in April, and Fitch says if there is no increase in the debt ceiling by August, it will consider an AAA Negative for the US. That negative business means that a downgrade could come at any time.
Meanwhile, Uncle Sam can at least console himself: Greece is now down to CCC. To understand the ratings, go to http://www.politonomist.com/sovereign-credit-ratings-revealed-002626/ A BB is junk-bond status, meaning a country has to pay 3%+ more on its debt to avoid default. D is a selective default, a total default is DDD.

0200 GMT July 13, 2011

Libya: Glass Half Full or Half Empty? You can take events either way. The Half Full school sees the rebels closing in on Tripoli from the south, with coordinated attacks from east and west of Tripoli mounted simultaneously to finish the war in six weeks.
The Half Empty school says the southern rebels have to capture two towns before getting into position for a last jump to Tripoli. These towns are by now heavily defended. Taking them requires a 30-km advance, after which its an open road to Tripoli, 80 km away. But NATO is getting wobbly - France has even suggested the opposition talk to Gaffy Duck. air support is sporadic. Though a large ammo dump was captured, rebels are still very short of equipment and supplies. Most of all they are short of trained fighters. To get to Tripoli will require close support from NATO attack helicopters, whereas NATO has been proceeding very gingerly for fear of chipping its nail polish. Its quite possible another six months will pass before any real proigress toward Tripoli, by which time NATO will probably have packed up and gone home.
Another bunch of blithering idiots. At least US is not alone in being afflicted with this breed.
US holds $800-million military aid; Pakistan defiant Normally is two people have been married for ten years, and have been fighting with each other every day for the duration, the reasonable solution is to get a divorce, particularly as there aren't any kids involved.
But this is the good old USA we are dealing with, a country that thinks if it just pressures the other fellow enough, the sun will rise in the west. You have not just a bunch of blithering idiots, but reality-denying-to-the-point-of-psychosis blithering idiots. A dangerous breed.
So since the Pakistanis have threatened they will reduce cooperation after the OBL fiasco (fiasco for Pakistan; it was an all-too-rare and very welcome victory for the US), US has hit back by withholding $800-million worth of military aid. This includes repayments to Pakistan for counter-insurgent operations.
Well, the Pakistanis have said "you can take your aid and do you know what to you know where." Obviously Americans are expecting the greedy, corrupt Pakistanis to back down, as the greedy, corrupt Pakistanis have done these past 10 years. problem this time is that the Pakistan military is in real trouble with its people. Its not just the OBL thing, its lots of strands of anti-military feeling that have come together because of the OBL issue.
You have to understand that while Pakistan is a military dictatorship ruling behind the mask of a democracy, Pakistan security forces put together total 800,000 men. The population is 180-million. If the people really decide they won't take the military dictatorship anymore, there's nothing the military can do except go back to the barracks, game over. Attempting to continue the repression is not an option because the bulk of the army will not obey orders to fire on its people.
Okay so far? So one of the big issues bugging the heck out your typical Pakistani - who is not corrupt and is patriotic, unlike the military, is the military has been kissing the American batootee in exchange for cash. So for the Pakistan military to pretend to grovel just to get the money released will not work this time.
Next, using the excuse of the withheld aid, Pakistan will stop even the shadowplay it goes through in its pretence of fighting the Taliban. Sure, the part of the $800-million that is reimbursement is generally heavily skimmed off for use by the military in supporting the Taliban, buying India-front-related equipment; improving the standard of living of the services and so on. Contrary to what people, especially Pakistanis themselves, may think, the generals are not putting this money in their pockets. Though many do have commercial interests which "supply" stuff needed for the war against the Taliban. That's another story.
But for its survival, the Pakistan military will have to forgo this money unless it is taken on terms that allow the military to see "our sovereignty has been respected." In other words, the Americans will have to do the compromising this time.
On that Kurram offensive Least the Americans get thrilled and delighted that the Pakistanis are clearing Kurram prior to an advance into Waziristan. here's the bad news. The Pakistanis have housed the Haqqani and the Hekmatyar Taliban in Kurram, after "clearing" parts of Waziristan under US pressure. The Kurram locals don't like the Taliban. They have been fighting the Taliban. The point of the Kurram offensive is not to fight the Taliban, but to put down the anti-Taliban locals,. making life safer for the Taliban.
Does all this convoluted discussion about aid to Pakistan and "offensives" against the Taliban give you one of those "Not tonight, my dear" type headaches? We don't blame you. There is no more convoluted corner of the earth right now than Afghanistan-Pakistan. The only hilarious thing is that the Americans think they can outmaneuver the Afghans and the Pakistanis. Titter.

0200 GMT July 12, 2011

Why people really don't like politicians In Minnesota, 22,000 state employees are laid off since there is no agreement on financing the next budget. On one side you have the Governor (Democrat) and his party willing to make cuts but insisting the mess left behind by Mr. Pawlenty (Republican) is so severe that taxes have also to be raised. On the other side you have the other party (Republicans) say no taxes, period.
Fair enough, you have a genuine ideological disagreement, and maybe a shut down was neccessary to force people to compromise.
But we need to ask: Why are the state legislators getting paid (Democrats and Republicans)? And why is the Governor getting paid, not only for himself but for his residence servants?
Now, by all means lets blame those exponents of Ultimate American Sleaze, politicians. But behind these people are their enablers, the American people. Do people think the politicians are acting this way because they feel like it? No. Its because the voters are demanding two completely incompatible things, maintaining existing services while refusing to pay more taxes, indeed, they are wanting a reduction in taxes without a reduction is services. It is because the voters have told the politicians that if they compromise, the people will vote them out of office.
Sure, we should expect the politicians to go by principle and to heck with the voters or getting reelected. But the voters elected them in the first place because they liked the politicians' policies. So how can the politicians now turn around and say "we lied to get elected, now we emerge in our true colors". Isn't this just as wrong a betrayal of those who elected the politicians?
Rupert Murdock and his "daughter" You may not have heard of the News of the World scandal if you don't follow the British media, though it has been mentioned in the American media. If you haven't, here's the one-cent version. News of the World was Britain's largest selling Sunday tabloid. Over the past few years, it has hacked into the cell phone accounts of thousands of British citizens, including a little 12-yeart old girl who was murdered - after she died, which is plain ghoulish, and British troops killed in the line of service. NotW hacked politicians, royalty, entertainers, sports stars etc. The newspaper also paid police to get details of various things.
A brief diversion on the Brits and their police. Its been decades since the Brits came to understand that police corruption happens not just in the 3rd World, not just in France. and not just in America, but also in their country. Nonetheless, if there is one thing that will get them upset other than murderers of 12-year old girls, its corrupt police. And while the Brits may sort of tolerate the victimization of the rich and/or famous, their innate sense of decency gets outraged when ordinary folks are victimized.
So: the Brits are really, really angry. So far eight staffers at NotW have been arrested, and the investigations, including a parliamentary investigation, are just getting underway.
Mr. Murdock has a globe-spanning media empire. He owns not just our Wall Street Journal, but the London Times. These are serious newspapers with long-established reputations. He was also in the process of buying up the remaining shares of a big TV broadcaster.
To save himself from further blowback, he abruptly shut down the 168-year old NotW, and 200 staffers lost their jobs. Of course, he has promised they will get other jobs, but really, if there is one species of human you can trust less than a politician is a billionaire.
The one person who has not been fired is the editor, a red-haired lady he treats like his daughter. She is in her mid-40s, Mr. Murdock is 80. He is supporting this lady all the way, even to the extent when journos quizzed him about his concerns regarding the NotW fiasco, he looked at her fondly and said "this one".
So, why can a billionaire be nespotic if he feels like it? What's the point of being a billionaire if you cant have pet employees who are redheads, female, and half your age? well, there's laws about that if you have stockholders, and we're sure the major stockholders have the resources to get answers from Mr. Murdock - Americans are already preparing lawsuits about lack of board oversight and so on, and its possible the red-headed "this one" becomes an issue for the stockholders. Since we don't own a single share in Rupert Murdock (or in anyone, such are the joys of being an academic, a teacher, and multiply divorced) that part is not our business.
So why are we commenting on this? Quite simple.
The Editor has done his share of making a fool of himself over younger women and like Mr. Murdock, adores red-heads. So the Editor is always interested when other older men make fools of themselves over younger women - and very much in public. Though truthfully Editor can tell you he has never claimed any of his younger interests as his "daughter" - tres creepy.
Two things strike the Editor about the "daughter". First, the lady at 43 is actually a year older than Mr. Murdoch's second wife. Second, men are said - correctly - to be influenced by a woman's looks above all. Here's a short quiz. The daughter looks like (a) The head of the Sicilian Mafia; (b) The MVD's top torturer; (c) the CIA's chief water-boarder; (d) the second-in-command of the Gestapo; and (e) James Bulgar's chief executioner.
Unless you checked all five, you don't get a 100% on this quiz. Forget being a hard-looking woman, she's one of the hardest looking human beings you will ever see, and under no conditions would you want her as your adopted daughter.
Of course, why A likes B is always a great mystery to outsiders. We'd like to give fellow old man Murdock the benefit of the doubt and suggest maybe the young lady knows too many of Mr. Murdoch's secrets.
Which reminds us: Advice to young aspiring spies Never, ever, attempt to hide your weaknesses. They will be discovered and you will be blackmailed. Instead, celebrate your weaknesses openly, and even invent some real doozies. So, for example, no one could ever blackmail Editor about his Teddy Bears, because he himself tells the whole world about them. Again, no one can blackmail Editor about never having a date, because every week he keeps his five faithful readers updated on his most recent failure to get a date.
(If there are any baddies out there who think they should Bearnap Editor's Teddies and then blackmail him, all he has to say is: before you make an attempt, make sure you've adequately provided for your wife and children. Just a suggestion.)

0200 GMT July 11, 2011

Not much real news today

Meanwhile, back in Minnesota...so the Minnesota legislature could not agree on a budget and the government shut down on July 1, ten days ago. So you're thinking that both sides must be doing their best to resolve the impasse. You can't, after all, have an entire part of government just shut down.
Well, Los Angeles Times says the two sides are not even bothering to talk to each other, forget about arriving at a compromise. http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-minnesota-shutdown-20110710,0,5690226.story
Part of the reason may be that the courts have ordered government to continue payments to a whole lot of agencies such as public safety and schools. Relatively little of the state government is actually shut down.
Also meanwhile, back in good ol' Washingtoon... You have different schools of thought on raising the debt limit. School One says both sides are bluffing, when push comes to shove, a compromise will be achieved before the August 2 deadline. School Two says there will be no default. School Two-A says US takes in more than enough money to pay the monthly debt, so there will be no default. School Two-B says 14th Amendment Section 4 forbids a default, regardless of what Congress says, the President can blow past the limit when the time comes. School Three says people who say defaulting for a few days or a few weeks or a few months are wrong in assuming there will be no consequences. The debt rating agencies have clearly said if the US defaults by even one day, interest rates will go up. And, says School Three, once the rates go up - a 0.4% rise is anticipated in case of a short-term default, say a few days, the consequences stay for years and years of higher rates,
Then there's School Four, which says US can pay the interest, but that would mean it won't have that money to pay other bills. While conservatives say "that's exactly the point, we need to starve the beast", others say when reduced Social Security checks start arriving (among other things) there's going to be revolt of the people against the President and the Congress, and both parties are going to get burned.
Readers can do the math for themselves, which we did some months ago for FY 2010. US government spends $3.6-trillion/year. It takes in $2-trillion/year. Excluding social security and Medicare taxes, it takes in $1.2-trillion and spends $2.8-trillion (government is now paying out more in social security/Medicare that it takes in). The remaining $800-billion is a wash: social security/Medicare taxes collect and an equal amount paid out.
So to bring the budget into balance, you either have cut $1.6-trillion in spending, or raise $1.6-trillion in taxes. That means we cut spending by approximately 57%, or raise taxes by 125%.
Is either going to happen, or even a compromise where taxes are raised and spending reduced? Even the great Rand Paul's budget only slows the growth of the deficit.
So: we are not going to stop adding to the deficit, and of course you can forget paying it off. It will never be paid off.
Right now with interest rates so low, we do not get a catastrophe. But the EU already has a greater GDP than we do, and give China 30 years (most readers will still be alive) and China will have a GDP larger than us. So what worked when we had 40%+ of the world's GDP (after World War 2) when we could print dollars without consequences will come to an end. When interest on short term debt goes up to 3 or 4 or 5 percent, its going to be goodbye American economy.
So why not do the sensible thing: balance the budget, repudiate the debt, suffer a miserable 5-years or so, say 10 at the worst, and leave our kids with a clean balance sheet? Why be so self-indulgent that we cannot bear to lower our standard of living and in turn destroy our children's standard of living?
Come on, Baby Boomers. You had a great, great time. Now why don't you pay the piper?

0200 GMT July 10, 2011

Remember Buran, the Soviet Space Shuttle? New Scientist carries and interview with a still-active Russian cosmonaut who explains what happed to Buran. It's a nice story coinciding with the end of the US Shuttle program.
Buran was built as an unmanned military shuttle, not as a vehicle for space exploration. The first test article successfully launched, circled the earth twice, and landed safely. That was in 1988. Shortly after, the end of the Soviet Union also ended Buran's military uses, which could have included N-weapons delivery,
There was no civilian requirement for it as the Soviet/Russian philosophy for space stations was that the individual space station (Mir) components should be self-powered. Russian cosmonauts lobbied for converting Buran to a manned vehicle, but Russia decided to end the program.
A small point in the story irked us. The cosmonaut says that Buran would have been safer than the US Shuttle because it was designed with crew escape features in case of launch-pad or orbital emergencies. This is all well to claim, but no one knows how Buran would have performed. The reason the Shuttle didn't have an escape system is that the theory said the shuttle was so safe that escape was not required. There's a big difference between the theoretical design and what happens in practice. So no one can say one way or the other if Buran would have been safer.
Interestingly, the cosmonaut supports ending the US Space Shuttle in exchange for other space flight vehicles. He says the US Shuttle was just too expensive.
A time paradox attributed to Prof. David Deutsch Currently Editor is reading a book on the universe by Prof. Brian Greene ("The Hidden Reality"), who like our favorite, Prof. Michio Kaku, has a knack for explaining very complicated stuff in very simple terms. when you are slow as the Editor, and as old as the Editor, things have to be explained very, very simply.
In his latest book, Prof. Greene poses a time paradox he attributes to Prof. David Deutsch. Prof. Greene climbs into a time machine, sets it for - say 2021. When he arrives there, he heads for an internet cafe and discovers to his delight all the thorny problems of string theory have been worked out. Then he see the name of the author and gets a shock: the author is his mother!
Prof. Greene explains his mother has zero interest in cosmology. When he returns, he realizes he much teach his mother the subject. Well, a year goes by, then two and then three, and 2021 AD is approaching rapidly. Mom is getting nowhere.
So Prof. Greene writes the paper for her - he remembers the paper he saw in 2021 AD perfectly. So come 2021, there exists a paper written by Mom Greene validating the percepts of Strong Theory.
So far so good. But then comes the question: who wrote the paper? It wasn't Mom Greene. But it wasn't Prof. Greene either - he merely regurgitates the paper by Mom Greene that he read when he visited the future. There were no computers involved, so we can't say "the computer wrote it". Yet the paper exists.
Interesting stuff, no?
BTW, Editor made a huge mistake by ordering Prof. Roger Penrose's "The Cyclic Universe". Oddly for all Editor's lay interest in cosmology, he knew of Prof. Penrose as being a mathematician, specifically a geometer (Penrose Tiling). As Editor was about to click "Buy Now" on Amazon, he hesitated: his intuition was Prof. Penrose would make no concessions for slow, old Editors. Recklessly, however, Editor forged ahead.
Yes, the book is every bit as mathematically dense as Editor feared, though Prof. Penrose thinks he has been very simple. This source explains what Prof. Penrose is saying: http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/44388
"... black holes, which destroy all information that they suck in, evaporate as the universe expands and in so doing remove entropy from the universe." This means there is no Heat Death of the universe as the expansion continues. The expansion reaches a tipping point at which Black Holes remove the universe's entropy and you get a contraction which results in a very dense, very ordered (low entropy) universe, which then gives birth to the new one. (You can imagine Hindu philosophers are simply going mad with joy at a lot of cosmology today because they figured it all out millennia ago. Helped by massive doses of Controlled Substances, of course. That's another topic altogether.)
If you remember the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics, you'll remember that as the universe gets older, disorder increases (entropy increases). The thing is Newton's equation works well either way: entropy can also reduce. We don't see that as happening in our universe. Prof. Penrose would say that's because we're still expanding.
You can see from this brief exposition of a time paradox and entropy why people focus on stuff like winning in Afghanistan and getting a debt deal: Much, much simpler to ponder.

0200 GMT July 9, 2011

Shouldn't UK simply disband its armed forces? UK Telegraph says British officials have admitted they have a "do not shoot" policy against Taliban laying IEDs. They are simply to be observed and the position of the IED marked. British soldiers cannot shoot IED-layers because it might cause civilian casualties.
Before you go "Huh?" we should note that British rules of engagement say if there is no imminent threat to the lives of its troops, they should not shoot. IEDs are not considered imminent threats. So the Afghans, lacking 'fridges, did holes at night when its cooler to store perishables. So civilians could get killed if troops fired.
Okay, so is it an Afghan custom to head for the nearest road at night to dig holes for perishables? Isn't it more reasonable to assume they'll be doing the needful in their back yards? And where is the problem warning civilians to confine these activities to their back yard?
Oh, but the British say that the Taliban pay civilians to plant IEDs. Fair enough. That makes the civilians combatants. As for not giving the Taliban a propaganda advantage, do the Taliban wear uniforms? They can claim ANY fighter as a civilian. Just take away the guns, let the bodies lie, take photographs, and scream "civilians".
In our humble opinion, UK is so confused the nation should simply disband its armed forces and save itself much money and effort.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/onthefrontline/8626344/Soldiers-told-not-to-shoot-Taliban-bomb-layers.html
Another story in the same newspaper says NATO is reluctant to see the rebels advance to Tripoli because fighting would cause civilian casualties. NATO, please repeat after Grandpa Ravi: "Time. To. Go. Home." all the alliance is doing is wasting our tax dollars.
X-47 surrogate does 58 carrier landings The X-47 is the unmanned combat aircraft under development. Its software and systems were put into an F-18 as a surrogate and conducted 58 tests hands free, including 16 touch-and-go and six arrested landings. In 2012 the X-47s will move to Pax River, Maryland for continued testing, and in 2013-14 the vehicles will go aboard a Navy carrier for yet more tests including air refueling.
The B version has a 4500-lb payload, the C version will have a 10,000-lb payload.
EPA funds groups that sue the Agency An odd piece of news, from Reader Flymike. Why would EPA do such a strange thing? An EPA source says these are "sweetheart suits" where the EPA is perfectly happy at being told to do what it was in any case going to do, because now the EPA has legal cover in case someone else protests about that the EPA is doing - "Sorry, but the court says we have to do X, Y, Z".
Others say there is no connection between the grants the EPA gives and the suits, but truthfully, this sounds a bit like Hamlet, who once said: "Something smells rotten in the Kingdom of Denmark and it's not my gym socks."
http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article/577430/201107061817/EPA-Funds-Greens-That-Sue-It.htm
Putin supporter says God sent the Russian leader to help Russia at a difficult time. Editor made a call on the God Line, and this is what the Old Boy said: "That's right, blame me when you humans muck everything up."
Putin opponents say "that a personality cult is building around the prime minister ahead of presidential elections in 2012." Excuse us, please, "is building"? Now his opponents find out about the personality cult thing? Not very sharp, Putin's opponents.
Oh yes, there's also a "nun-like sect" that appeared two months ago saying Putin is a saint and a savior. Allegedly Putin does not approve of "that kind of admiration"? Sorry, Pooty-Poot old man: does this meet your approval: Putin is THE saint and THE savior? Feel better now?
Now, readers might justifiably say Editor is always bashing up weirdoes in the US and India, shouldn't he give Russia equal time? The problem with this is that if we started picking on Russia, we'd be doing nothing else.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/08/us-russia-putin-god-idUSTRE76768420110708

0100 GMT July 8, 2011

Libya media is talking about the advance on Tripoli from the south as most likely to succeed. Problem is that as far as we can tell rebel forces are still 100-km south of the capital, which is about where they were three weeks ago. Nonetheless, they have captured one large ammo dump and come away with plenty of flak, tanks, and rocket launchers. The rebels say they have been cautious about advancing because they don't want to be attacked by NATO warplanes.
This is how the southern rebels communicate with NATO. They use a slow internet connection which gets relayed in due time to Benghazi, from where the message goes to NATO. No need to wonder why the rebels are not getting anywhere.
Pakistan's Dr. AQ Khan Personally, we don't understand why this gentleman has not been shot. For years he has been threatening the military with blackmail re. his N-weapons transfers to various unpleasant places like DPRK, Iran, Saudi, and Libya. if you take action against me, he says, I will take the generals down with me, because they were 100% in the know of what I did.
So yesterday Washington Post runs a document provided by Dr. Khan. It is a a letter from a DPRK high official to Dr. Khan saying that arrangement have been made to pay two generals $3-million. Observers say the document looks authentic because references in the letter could be known only to informed and some of the information tallies with other known material.
The problem is, Khan himself says one general flatly refused to take the money. The other, then Pakistan Army Chief Jehangir Karamat, made clear the money was to go to the army's special funds and not to him. So where's the bribery? As for the army knowing about Dr. Khan's double dealings, the Army certainly did know of some because he was using military resources to airlift parts and equipment. But from what we know, Dr. Khan happily made many side deals purely for his own benefit. (He says that money was for a charitable foundation and the Government of Pakistan knows about it. Great excuse.)
Dr. Khan, popularly known as the father of the Pakistan bomb, is an expert faker. His six tests in 1998 are a perfect example. He is also the person who sent two of his N-scientists to discuss selling OBL two bombs. This happened about the time of 9/11, and was one reason the US was so adamant about squelching Pakistan. The bombs wouldn't have worked (we say that categorically), but that isn't the point. Though they would have made up with reactor grade Plutonium, just scattering the stuff in Manhattan would have made for a disaster much worse than 9/11. US has wanted Dr. Khan to occupy one of its cozy torture rooms, but so far Pakistan hasn't handed him over or allowed the US to question him. He says he will reveal all if he is handed over; his daughter in the UK has copies of all his papers. As far as we are concerned, he has on at least two occasions leaked papers and the information has been complete blah.
If the Pakistanis had any sense, they would put Dr. Khan on the next USAF C-141 visiting Islamabad. No one would see him again.
Swedish doctors successfully grew a trachea from a patient's cells. They then used the trachea to replace the patient's cancer-afflicted component. He is now cancer free. There was no problem of organ rejection as the component was made from the patient's own cells, so the recovery period was short. Quite amazing, but the doctor who did the operation warms that growing a trachea is a simple procedure compared to growing something like a heart, Nonetheless, this is a major breakthrough. The doctors plan three more similar operations.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304793504576432093996469056.html?mod=WSJ_hp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsThird
More proof the US is sinking Thanks to the TV attached to the treadmill in the gym, after decades the Editor got to see a brand new (for him) Looney Tunes cartoon. In this one, Bugs Bunny takes his girlfriend Lola Bunny to Paris.
If you don't see what's wrong with the above picture, you're likely too young to remember America at its zenith. Back in the day, Bugs would never have visited Paris for a romantic visit. America was the best country of all - no need to go overseas.
The Roadrunner/Wile E. Coyote, on the other hand, was just as good as the shorts of yore. ah, good old Acme Corporation" representative of American ingenuity at its greatest.

0200 GMT July 7, 2011

Did you know a woman officer commands the Bush CVBG? We didn't. Rear-Admiral Laura Tyson is the first woman to achieve command of a carrier battle group. Carrier Strike Group 2 deployed to the Mediterranean/Arabian Sea this past May.
We still have mixed feelings about women in combat positions. Nonetheless, Admiral Tyson is to be congratulated
India to raise fourth artillery division according to an article by an army brigadier sent by reader Rohit Vats. The third division, long deferred, looks to be in existence: Mr. Vats is going by its division insignia, which is different from the insignia's for 40th and 41st Artillery Divisions. (Deep blue background, red and white logo),
This fourth division will be based in Eastern Command to enhance defenses against China. We knew from the press that Eastern Command would get an artillery division, but we assumed it would be the third artillery division. The three strike corps are supposed to have an artillery division each, but until the raising of the third, only two did.
You can read the relevant article at http://www.indiastrategic.in/topstories483.htm which also discusses developments (as of 2010) in India's artillery modernization. Also read http://www.indiastrategic.in/topstories890.htm to see how messed up India's defense procurement is. A quarter century after a requirement for more 155mm gu ns (after the 400 gun Bofors purchase), India's has yet again called for tenders for 155mm guns. This excludes the purchase of 145 M777s from the US approved last year.
Indian C-17s after the purchase of a second batch of six to add to the signed order for ten, India is said to be looking for a third batch of 8 C-17s. If the third batch comes through, that will total $10-billion - roughly the same amount as US expected had F-16 or F-18 won the Indian light fighter competition. So we hope the US establishment is going to stop complaining about being shut out of the fighter competition.
The ex-IMF chief's accuser asks New York prosecutor to step down and the authorities to appoint a new prosecutor. Why? Our suspicion is this is a step by her lawyers to keep themselves in the news. The only way a prosecutor can be required to do that is if there is a conflict of interest.
And where is the conflict of interest? The woman's lawyers allege the prosecutor undermined his own case by leaking damaging information. If the accuser's lawyers are referring to the 3-page letter the DA sent to the defense, it is best the woman get rid of her lawyers, because they are totally incompetent. The prosecutor is required by law to give the defense's lawyers exculpatory evidence.
Are the accuser's lawyers speaking of the leaks that started coming from the government's side about the credibility of the witness? In which case, the woman - again - needs to fire her lawyers. In the US it is near impossible to stop leaks, particularly when people who believed her are now angry at her lies and the way she played them.
Are the accuser's lawyers forgetting that the accused's lawyers had several top-notch investigators who were ferreting information left and right? They have no legal or moral requirement not to leak that information. Particularly when the prosecution did its fair share of leaking when it was convinced the ex-IMF Chief was guilty.
Do the accuser's lawyers insist that the government try the case even if there is a high chance it will fail? Well, one woman's group appears to think so. It is not ready to let go of the case. Which, strictly speaking, is still very much on the books. Is it their case that the woman's word must always prevail over the man's? If so, this is not justice, but lynching, along the lines of America's segregated days, when all a white woman needed was to make an accusation against a black man and the mob would take care of the man.
One woman's group says: "We call on the Manhattan District Attorney, as well as prosecutors and courts around the world, to ensure that Hawa, Tristane Banon and all other women and girls with the courage to come forward and press charges are treated with sensitivity and respect," Equality One, a women's rights advocacy group said in a statement, using a pseudonym for the accuser." http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/06/us-strausskahn-idUSTRE7600AC20110706 And giving the nameless, faceless woman a made up name is a clever propaganda trick to garner sympathy for her. If its propaganda the groups wants to engage in, and not help search for the truth, however uncomfortable, then they are propagandists and can be disregarded.
If this group wants to be taken seriously, it should be serious. The accuser was in fact treated with such sensitivity that a man was taken off a plane, handcuffed, and paraded as guilty before the whole world before a single allegation was verified. Investigating officers are said to have wept when the woman told them how she was assaulted in her home country. That's how jolly sensitive they were. What sank the woman was the repeated lies she told, the discovery of her immigration fraud, welfare fraud, and unaccounted for money passing through her bank accounts. Not to say the conservation she had with her jailed boyfriend where she tells him not to worry, the man has money and she knows what she is doing. The New York prosecutor had nothing to do with this implosion.
Why is Equality One even defending this woman? All it is doing is demeaning the many, many genuine victims of assault by refusing to face facts. Next time Equality One advocates for a victim, the first thing that will come up is its behavior in the IMF ex-Chief's case. The attention will shift to the group, rather than the victim.
Of course, the group is using this as an opportunity to raise money. That is the American way, and the truth, like Farragut's torpedoes, be damned.
(Incidentally, when Dewey at Manila Bay said "You may fire when you are ready, Gridley" he was was not complimenting on Gridley's calm under fire. Dewey was the squadron commodore Gridley was commanding USS Olympia, where Dewey had placed his flag. Dewey was actually quite fed up with Gridley's fussing about trying to get the best position. The admiral was being sarcastic because all this time the Spanish fleet was blasting away with no response from the Olympia. How do we know this? It's right there in the memoirs of Lord Lovett, the famous British commando, who was present on the flagship that day, with his faithful personal bagpiper Bill playing "Over the Sea to Skye". This was Piper Bill's subtle way of telling Gridley to get moving. Bill was subtly telling Gridley that at the rate the American captain was going, the rest of the fleet would have sailed back half away across the earth, Skye being Scotland. Since Gridley did not get the hint, Dewey had to speak more directly to him.)
As for the weeping officers: 40 lashes with a limp noodle and paraded backward on donkeys down 5th Avenue.
Incidentally we recall being told once that back in the 19th Century, if a woman alleged assault, her word was taken without question. The reasoning was that the accusation focused such negative attention on the woman, no woman would make something like this up. But look, people. Back in the day you didn't have women drinking themselves under the table with men, going back to their rooms for serious make-out sessions, pass out, and claim rape the next day (this happened at the US Naval Academy; year before last, we think). You did not have women visiting a man's hotel room at his late night invitation - dressed in their sleeping outfit - and then saying they were raped (Mike Tyson).
Editor's boxing instructor, long ago, told the boys that rape was a crime worse than murder. Editor has long believed that. By all means execute rapists as the sole penalty. But, Equality One, what happened to innocent till proved guilty?
The Australian Wombat is a cute and cuddly fellow, looks a lot like a koala bear with a long snout. Now Australian scientists have found a skeleton for a wombat that lived 2-million years ago. This fellow weighed three tons and was the size of a rhino. Definitely not cute and cuddly, unless you happen to be the size of King Kong.

0200 GMT July 6, 2011

Belgium: 385 days without a government Fareed Zakaria of CNN reminds us that the Belgian no-government crisis continues, and has hit some kind of record for modern times. The north wants to split off; it's not clear to us why it hasn't. Meanwhile, the Belgians seem to be getting along fine without a central government.
This reminds us to mention Italy. In 1945, Italy was dirt poor, and that is not a euphemism. Now Italy is one of the richest countries in the world, 65 years later. Northern Italy is said to have a per capita income capita equal to that of Switzerland. Italy has had at least 60 governments in this time, and when it has a government, the government doesn't really work all that well. But the Italians are 17th (nominal, not PPP) in the world in per capita income if you exclude four oil states that have higher per capitas.
Further, a huge percentage of Italy's GDP is in the "black" economy. Italians not only hate to pay taxes, they do their best not to pay them. So their position would be still higher.
Maybe back in the US we should consider what sort of government and what level of government we really need.
Hugo is back home but from his speech we're guessing his condition is still difficult. He spoke of stages of treatment, and put himself first in God's hands and next in his doctors' hands. He said he will win the battle for life.
None of this sounds hopeful. Anyway, we wish him the best for a recovery.
This is what you call a Greek tragedy except it features a middle class Indian family. Dad was losing his eyesight, brother needed a kidney. Dad's 12 year old daughter (Grade 6) killed herself, leaving a note explaining she wanted her family to benefit, and asking her organs be used to help them.
The note was discovered - after the funeral, which was a cremation.
Some God is for sure having a cruel laugh upstairs.
Afghan police is supposed to be the centerpiece of General Petraeus's strategy, and that's the way it is supposed to be in successful CI operations. So you can take it as given that the CI will fail, because aside from the problems with the army (which we have discussed), the Afghan police are 100% ineffective and corrupt.
One of the good general's pet schemes was local police forces to do auxiliary duties - man checkpoints, night patrol, and so on. Excellent idea. In India they call their equivalent units "Home and Hearth" battalions, and they use former insurgents, just as the good general's units do.
So what are these units doing? Same thing that the Taliban did: collecting (illegally) one-tenth of farmers's income. The regular police do the usual bribery and extortion thing, always have.
Another example of your tax dollars at work. Read about it at http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/13/world/asia/13police.html?_r=2&ref=world&pagewanted=all
Letter from Reader Flymike I can't speak for the tea party though I have been to some functions to get a feel for the folks that attend. It is a widely diverse group. It's not libertarian but it has some of that flavor,,, but I would say many of them are socialists,, but would be deeply offended by such an analysis. One has to consider the context today and the amount of brain washing that has transpired in the past 50, 100 or more years. As the founders noted liberty always yields,,,, it is always vigilance.. A republic,,,, if you can keep it... As Franklin said.
One of the things that came to mind are those that do not demand nor want anything from govt. other and the basics such as mutual defense, judicial system, private property, perhaps sound currency and the like,,, or perhaps less than that. In particular what about those that wish to be left alone??? In a country conceived in individual liberty this should be a given,, to just be left alone.
I'll pay for what I use and for the rest,. please, leave me alone. I would rather not be bludgeoned by communism daily, thank you..
The demand you speak of comes from the idea that this is a democracy and we can vote ourselves largess by stealing another citizens' property and happiness. In this respect your challenge is to find a lawful authority for such theft,,,, and you will find none in our constitution of this republic. The idea of this republic is that the rights of the minority are protected, that democracy will not be able to rain tyranny on the minority.
From the federal govt. perspective the challenge is to find lawful authority for 75 perhaps 85% or what the govt takes by force and unlawfully spends/steals what it can't directly confiscate from citizens in an effort to make all citizens poorer.
From a sit way back and look perspective the depth of corruption is really a moral challenge. Massive understatement.
If you have some appreciation for, liberty,,,, And I know you probably do,,, there are some profound questions here.
Editor's note Remember, Editor was simply quoting E.J. Dionne on the Tea Party. Editor made clear his understanding of US history prior to 1945 is sparse.

0100 GMT July 5, 2011

40% of NATO Afghan supply tonnage moving by alternative routes that is not through Pakistan. By the end of the year the percentage is expected to rise to 75%.
Does this mean the US will adopt a more sensible policy vis-a-vis Pakistan, such as leaving it alone? Not a chance. The US is so committed to the idea that the insurgent L of C can be cut only by Pakistan, that it simply refuses to entertain any other solution. One solution would be to built a barrier. Without even thinking about it, US has rejection that option as impossible for a 2300-km mountain frontier. Actually there's nothing impossible about the job, and the barrier is needed even if Pakistan whole-heartedly cooperates with the US. That's because Pakistan cannot police any except a small fraction of the border.
US to sell Mk-54 ASW torpedo to India In yet another US-India arms deal, US has agreed to supply this advanced torpedo for use with the P-8I (I = India) ASW maritime time patrol aircraft. We see no reason why the Indian Navy will not try to integrate the torpedo with other platforms.
Why the US fighter was not chosen by India We are told by an Indian media person briefed by the Indians that the F-16/F-18 did not meet most of the 144 parameters India had set as part of its requirement. Even if a US fighter had met the parameters, the Indian demand for offset was so high that neither US company could have met it without losing money. And this assumes US would have transferred its latest technology to India as British/Euros are prepared to do, a most unlikely proposition.
What percentage of national income should be devoted to taxes? Reader Flymike asks this question. Off-the-cuff we thought 10% would be fair all around, but of course there is no way it can be 10% if we insist on all the local, state, and federal programs that we have come to rely on.
And this is the essence of the debate today: where do Americans balance their aversion to paying taxes with the services they demand? Unless there can be a consensus on that, we're going to get nowhere in the debate of tax cuts versus spending cuts.
BTW, we learn from E.J. Dionne of the Washington Post that the original Tea Party was not the least averse either to government or to paying taxes. Of the ten top reasons for the TP's unhappiness, taxes rated tenth. For the rest, all the TP was saying is (a) no taxation without representation, and (b) England should not have the right to write laws for Americans.
Now, we never quote Mr. Dionne because he is frighteningly liberal. Nor do we claim to know much about American history prior to 1945 (military history excepted). Indeed, till this recent Sarah Palin hoo-haa about Paul Revere, we thought that Paul Revere was doing a paid advertisement for a big carnival to be staged by the English for the entertainment of their colonials. So we welcome any correction on what the original TP wanted.
Also BTW, a reader tells us that strictly Grover the Grouch (aka Norquist) is not a small government person. He is an anarchist because he wants a government so small it can be drowned in a bathtub. That means no government at all. Just imagine: Grover, a true hippie for the 21st Century. Om, om, Hare Krishna and Don't Bogart that Joint, My Friend, that sort of thing. Grover would look just so cute in long hair, flowing robes, beads, and flowers plus a giant fake Mary Jane. or maybe Grover wants the right to real MJs, that's why he's against government. Just saying.
India, we Love You For some reason its very hard these days to make head or tail of Indian domestic news, so we have to go back to a headline of two years ago which was mentioned in a story in the Hindustan Times. Apparently the Indian Health Minister wants married Indian couples to watch more late-night TV as a way of having fewer children. Could anyone but an Indian come up with so brilliant a contraceptive idea? We think not.
The problem is, the same minister the other day said that gay sex is unnatural. OK, but if he really wants to reduce the rate of population growth, rather than suggesting married couples watch more late-night TV, should he suggest that Indian husbands and wives should become gay? That would have a really dramatic effect on population growth.

0200 GMT July 4, 2011

Happy 235th, America. You're only as old as you think.

Pakistan says it has launched a new operation against insurgents in Kurram agency, which Dawn of Pakistan notes is near the infamous Tora Bora (Afghanistan). Pakistan says insurgents fleeing security forces in Waziristan have moved into Kurram Agency. While Pakistan's initiative is commendable - assuming this is not another sham show - we presume the insurgents in Kurram will now flee back to Waziristan.
With the last Shuttle mission scheduled for July 8, next week, and no other manned space vehicle available except the Russian Soyuz, you have to wonder what the US thinks it is doing. Is the current situation carefully planned or is it a super-snafu?
The shuttle's military payload capability will be assumed by the Delta 4 and Atlas 5 rockets, of which the US seems to have a large number. These lifters can place payloads ranging from 12-tons (GEO) to 30-tons (LEO). For repair, refueling etc. of military satellites, the X-37 will be used. Space-X will provide an unmanned cargo delivery vehicle for Space Station resupply, so there is an alternative to Soyuz.
Space-X, a private company, can have its Dragon 7-person manned crew vehicle ready by perhaps 2015-16, and NASA's multi-purpose crewed vehicle (the former Orion) can put 4-crew in space by perhaps 2016. This assumes no further cutbacks imposed on NASA. With the current budget crisis, that is not the safest assumption to make.
In case of emergency, one presumes both the Dragon and the MPCV can be pushed to the extent of shaving two years off development.
Still, unless the US has a secret manned crew vehicle sitting around somewhere, retiring the shuttles without an alternative capability looks to be a super-snafu.
Sigh. We'd hoped that the IMF ex-Chief story was now closed. But no. The maid was put in a hotel and protected for her safety and because the government feared the ex-Chief's camp might bribe her to change her story. As of June 1 the guard was withdrawn and the lady was free to come and go as she wanted, except, of course, when the government wanted to talk to her.
So there were already rumors that the lady - er - charged hotel guests for favors, and in particularly looked for men from her country. There were allegations that at times she did not play fair which in this case one supposes means minor blackmail or alleging payment for services was not rendered Now New York Post says it has been told by a government person keeping watch over the maid that after June 1, when the protection was withdrawn, the lady was entertaining men on the taxpayer's dime from the hotel in which she was put.
We did not mention the earlier allegations because it sounded a lot like a rumor campaign to discredit the lady. Moreover, even if prostitution is illegal, raping a prostitute should be a crime - though how this is to be proved we don't know. But you get what we are saying. Nonetheless, we are forced to report what the NY Post is saying because it is quoting unidentified government people, a bit more reliable than the usual tabloid source. And also, this could be a case where she decided to shakedown a customer as she is rumored to do on occassion.
Also, there is the matter of equity. When the IMF ex-Chief was arrested, many allegations started surfacing of his past and the media had no hesitation.
Letter from Reader Eric Cox You wrote: "At this time US Immigration is very, very tough on illegals. You get stopped at a traffic light and it turns out you are an illegal, you are automatically jailed for deportation, and it doesn't matter you have an exemplary person since you came, nor does it matter if you a pillar of the community, your family will be broken up, etc etc."
I fear you are mistaken. Federal government does not enforce traffic laws. Local jurisdictions rarely enforce immigration violations. When they attempt to do so, they immigrant is given a court date and ordered to appear. Do they appear? Not unless they are stupid!
In our neighboring City, we a have a City building where contractors and homeowners can come and hire illegal immigrant workers for "day labor" jobs. (San Mateo, California). While they are waiting to be hired, they are advised on how to get welfare for their families and how to use the System.
The original idea was to prevent the illegals from gathering on the street corners in a two block area near the Center. It has been somewhat successful: there used to be about a hundred and fifty "loiterers" in the two block area, now there are only about twenty on an average day.
Similar situation on Anderson Drive in San Rafeal, California and in most Home Depot parking lots in the San Francisco Bay area.
And, please note the Federal opposition to the Arizona law which would require local jurisdictions to enforce the Federal immigration law at traffic stops and other cases.
San Francisco, as you may know, is a Sanctuary city for illegal aliens. City has a program to house and feed illegal alien youths who are picked up by the police. There was considerable embarrassment for the program when one of it's participants shot and killed a father and is two teenage sons who were in the automobile. Case of mistaken identity: the shooter thought they were members of a rival gang on his gang's turf. Shooter had been arrested but not deported.
I recognize that some people do get deported, but usually only after they have served a sentence in a US jail and many of them quickly return to the US and get re-arrested.
The woman in the Kahn case may be deported, but if so, she will be the exception.

0200 GMT July 3, 2011

Accuser in IMF ex-Chief case looks worse by the day According to the New York Times, the accuser spoke to her boyfriend who was in Arizona jail on an immigration charge, and said - paraphrase - don't worry, I know what I'm doing, this guy is worth a lot of money. This happened 28 hours after the incident. Since boyfriend and she spoke an obscure dialect, the recording was translated only on Wednesday.
Re. the shoulder injury. The accuser did not claim the injury until a significant time later (not specified) when she refused to turn up for interviews with the authorities following emerging inconsistencies in her testimony. She was absent for 10 days; her lawyer said it was to get treatment for the injury, a torn ligament.
Re. her first claim that she hid until the accused left the room, we said yesterday that key card data showed she had cleaned another room before returning to the accused's room - which is really an apartment sized suite including kitchen, living, dining and bedrooms. We were wrong because the story wasn't reported properly in the media. This was another story she told the investigators. The key card data shows she stayed in the room after the accused left to finish up her work.
There is further a suggestion the hotel uses pairs of housekeepers to clean. In the case of an apartment-sized suite, more than one housekeeper may make sense.
Legal aspects In New York, once an accused is indicted, the authorities must bring a case within a few days. This is where the Manhattan District Attorney messed up. The Feds, by contrast, make a case before they arrest you, barring a tight case, they will not prosecute. This is why they get such a high percentage of convictions.
We asked Legal Analyst 1 that since the IMF ex-Chief was on a plane, and France does not extradite citizens for this type of crime, did the New York authorities have any choice except to arrest him? Indeed they can arrest him before the case is ready: but they cannot oppose bail in that case. The Manhattan DA, anxious to get political mileage opposed bail, and in the event the accused got bail anyway. So that was not a smart move. In an case, it would have made no difference to wait and let the man go. Indict him later, have a US court ask for extradition, and the man's name is mud worldwide as a fugitive on the run. So, says Legal 1, aside from the "need" to court publicity, the Manhattan DA would have lost nothing by letting the man go and making a case at its own slow pace.
Legal analyst 2 had a different take. There was no need to say a word. Let the accused go. He is IMF Chief, based in Washington. He has gone for a meeting in Europe. He will return to his office. Let Manhattan DA keep everything under wraps, investigate, and if a solid case emerges, arrest the man without warning.
The accuser At this point the accuser is in very serious trouble - nothing to do with the case per se: just because the authorities don't win a case in court doesn't reflect on the accuser. She is in trouble because her immigration asylum application is totally made up. She was not a victim of sexual assault. She was not a victim of the regime which created a situation in which her husband died for opposing the regime. Instead she listened repeatedly to tape recordings telling her what to say till she had her story down pat.
At this time US Immigration is very, very tough on illegals. You get stopped at a traffic light and it turns out you are an illegal, you are automatically jailed for deportation, and it doesn't matter you have an exemplary person since you came, nor does it matter if you a pillar of the community, your family will be broken up, etc etc. Immigration cannot very well let the accuser go given the high profile of the case and her total concoction of her application: lying on an immigration application is itself a crime and grounds for cancellation.
Next, she has violated both federal income tax law by claiming a person as a dependent who is not her dependent, and she has violated New York law by using this other dependent to qualify for public housing, In an ordinary case its likely she would be slapped with a financial penalty by the IRS and disqualified for public housing. But again, because this is a high profile case, she is unlikely to escape notice. Further, US law says if you are convicted of a felony with a theoretical sentence greater than a year, you are to be deported even if you don't serve a day in jail.
Last, and possibly most serious is the $100,000 found transferred to her bank accounts. There is a suspicion of money laundering since she has said she had no income but her job. She says she didn't know people were putting money in her accounts. Hmmm. Not a defense that will fly given her boyfriend is an alleged narcotics person. This can get a person not just deported, but a solid jail term before deportation.
The accused The Manhattan DA is reported to have made a feeble effort to save face by asking the accused to plead guilty to a misdemeanor. But the accused has no incentive to do that. Normally you plead to a lesser charge when there is sufficient evidence for a possible conviction - why take the chance? But the accused being who he is, will insist either on complete exoneration by the authorities, failing which he will insist on his right to a trial where the odds are high he will be acquitted. he gains nothing by pleading guilty to anything, even to flicking a cigarette butt on the pavement (littering).
Presumably the misdemeanor charge would be paying for sex? But perhaps not. Paying a prostitute (of either sex, we hasten to say) is illegal. But giving a gift to someone with whom you had an - er - one-day stand is not illegal as far as we know. So possibly the misdemeanor charge would be improper touching or something like that.
If there is a moral in this, it has to be that if you are going to - er - make a public nuisance of yourself, it pays to have a very rich wife who has a few hundred million to her name, and who decides for reasons of her own to stand by you. And it pays to have that wife be French. We cannot imagine that had the accused's wife been American, she would have used some of her money to hire investigators to aid the police in putting her husband away for longer. Just to get back at the humiliation he has imposed on her.
Just imagine: here is a gentleman who frequents New York's most expensive escort agencies. The he pays - what? - a couple of hundred dollars to a hotel housekeeper for a quickie. Very tasteless. Very déclassé. But apparently not as far as the French are concerned: there's serious talk the accused is eligible now to declare his candidacy for President of France.
Of course, at this point the one French reader we have can retort: a candidate for the French Presidency paid a maid for a quickie. Your American president, leader of the Free World, was getting quickies from an intern in the Oval Office, with the door open. So who's the déclassé person, amigo?
At points such as these, we quickly remind people that well, that president was not the Editor's president because the Editor is not an American. Discretion being the better part of valor and all that.

0200 GMT July 2, 2011

US is flying strike missions in Libya says US Africa Command, and presumably the people there know of what they speak. President Obama says US is flying only supporting missions. Well, apparently attacking air defense targets and maintaining a standby strike package to deploy as NATO requests is supporting and not combat.
Now, if you really want to get fancy, ALL air missions are supporting. Air power does not occupy ground and nor does it seek outcomes in isolation of what happens on land. No surprise there, since we live on the land, not on the sea or in the air. at the same time, do Americans want a government that says it is doing X, when it is doing Y?
Possibly this all started with Bill Clinton and is "depends on what the meaning of is is", but it shouldn't come as a big surprise to President Obama and other politicians: the American people are not interested in parsing words to nanometer precision. They are not as clever as President Obama, so they prefer straight talk. By parsing in ways no one can follow, President Obama is - plain and simple - lying to his people. Sure, nowadays every President and politician seems to lie, to say nothing of corporate America and big media. That doesn't make President Obama's lie on Libya acceptable.
http://defensenews.com/story.php?i=6954254&c=AME&s=TOP
Tim Pawlenty above we see an example of lies from the left. Mr. Pawlenty is an example of lies from the right. He says he is anti-tax. In his 8 years as governor of Minnesota, he balanced his budget by borrowing money from other accounts and leaving the state with a $5-billion deficit. He raised property taxes by $2.5-billion in seven years, three times the amount property taxes went up by in the eight years previous to his governorship. He left the state finances in a complete mess.
So by what standard does this potential presidential candidate present himself to us as a model of anti-tax and fiscal probity?
The former IMF chief has been freed from house arrest (though he still cannot leave the US), and his bond has been reduced to his personal word. You will, of course, by now have read that the credibility of the maid accusing him of sexual assault has been torn to pieces. The New York authorities bravely say they will carry on, that her credibility on other matters has nothing to do with that she was assaulted.
This person cheated on her asylum application, claimed another's child as her own to reduce her taxes, and had $100,000 total deposited in her bank accounts by a gentleman in jail for drug offences.
Now, if you are a strict feminist (and you don't have to be a woman to be a feminist) you can legitimately say none of the above has relevance to her claim of sexual assault. We agree.
The problem is that there were no witnesses to her claim. DNA evidence - which the former IMF chief has not contested - shows sex took place. He says it was consensual. She says it was not. In such a situation her credibility is a legitimate target.
You may recall we had mentioned when the case broke that we were baffled by the time lag in her reporting the case to her supervisor. Well, one reason for the delay is that after the alleged assault, she cleaned another room, and then returned to clean the IMF ex-chief's rooms. Then she reported the assault.
At some point she has been taped talking to her friend in jail, discussing the merits or otherwise bringing a complaint against the IMF ex-chief.
None of this helps the accuser's credibility.
Her lawyers say she suffered injuries including a torn ligament from being assaulted by the gentleman. Perhaps the lady is an exponent of the stiff-upper-lip/the-show-must-go-on school, so that after being assaulted including chased around a hallway and injured, she bravely decided she must not fall behind in her work and continued in her duties. But you see the problem.
Moreover, she lied to the grand jury that indicted the IMF ex-chief, including about her movements after the assault. We are not lawyers, but we think it does not look good if an indictment is issued when the accuser has lied.
So: the case is not over, but at least the judge thought there was now sufficient doubt that he released the gentleman from house arrest and returned his bail monies.
Assuming the gentleman is acquitted, we have to ask ourselves: is our system of parading an accused before the world the right thing to do when you have a have he-said/she-said situation? What if the woman accepted money for sex, then decided to bet high? Just because the man is known to be sexually aggressive, does he deserve to be vilified across the world? Just as we agree that lies the woman may have told elsewhere do not bear on if she was assaulted, should we not agree that the man's aggressiveness does not a priori mean he assaulted the woman?
This man had a good chance to become the next president of France. Now he will be president of nothing. If he is fact acquitted, or the case is withdrawn, we really do need to ask ourselves about the way the criminal justice system works in the US.

0100 GMT July 1, 2011

Don't cry for Colonel Gaddaffi One reason us Old Birds give to justify the room we are taking up on Earth is that we are the repository of collective historical wisdom which helps the tribe (in this case the Human Tribe) successfully survive. Well, this Old Bird is feeling a bit foolish, because in the 100 days of the Libya crisis he completely forget to tell you something about the good Colonel.
Gaffy The Duck has been flinging all manner of proclamations about imperialists attacking him all that. Next time you speak with him, you might remind him that he has quite a record for imperialism himself. Several times in the 1970s and 1980s he invaded Chad, attempting to annex part of the north, interfering in local disputes, and pushing to install his preferred person as leader. Chad was under French protection, so Gaffy has a long history with the French. Editor left all his books and notes back home when he came back to the States, and in a quick web search he hasn't been able to find other interventions, overt and covert. Right now if you Google "Libya's foreign interventions" or variations you keep getting current stuff. But there were other examples of naughtiness by Gaffy.
None of this, of course, is to justify or otherwise the foreign intervention in Libya. But we thought its good to have some background.
Lebanon The UN tribunal inquiring into the 2005 killing of Rafiq Harari, prime minister of Lebanon many times, very rich, and anti-Syria, has handed down its first indictment. This is for the Hezbollah military wing leader. Syria is, of course, Hezbollah's patron. Its position was so weakened by the killing Syria withdrew its occupation force from Lebanon. (The Syrians didn't call it an occupation force - it was there to defend the people or whatever).
The likelihood of the warrant being served is zero. Not only will Hezbollah fight rather than hand over any of its leaders, Hezb is the main power in the current government which took five months to form and which excludes the previous PM, Rafiq's son Saad.
The West, which backs Saad, is perfectly aware of Hezb's potential to take down Lebanon. The tribunal was formed when it looked like the west was getting the better of Syria, and an indictment of Hezb would have been another blow to its legitimacy. But Hezbollah came back stronger after threatening civil war is the tribunal thing did not cease and desist.
The west's strategy will be not to push for arrests, but to have cards in reserve if the movement is weakened.
At times Editor gets philosophical And, no, this is not about another Saturday without a date, though its Friday already and honestly, no date seems in sight. A young lady at the gym did call out "Hi, Mr. Ravi!" and Editor leaped energetically forward, much like an arthritic elephant greeted by a smart, young lady elephant. There seemed something familiar with the voice. After Editor wiped his glasses on his T-shirt and was actually able to see the cheerful person, he realized its one of his own students who is going into 12th Grade. So he did a feeble wave and backed away very, very slowly, one step at a time. Just another day, just another disaster.
But seriously, this is what Editor was philosophical about today. Editor is 5 feet six inches and weighs 192-lbs in his boxers. Definitely some of that is old-age bulge, but he's done weights for 8 years now and has bulked up considerably. Still, at a certain age you have to start thinking about the old heart and so on. So Editor set a goal of reducing bulge by three inches and weight by 10 pounds in 12-months.
So after Day 14 of killing himself on the cardio machines, 60-minutes a day, he weighed himself. He is now 193-lbs because as you know, when you exercise, fat turns to muscle, and muscle weighs more. Bulge is down by an inch. At this rate he will weight at least 220-lbs a year from now and have a svelte 38-inch waist.
So you can understand Editor's mind today has turned to philosophy. As in, what exactly is the point of life? If Editor wants to become 220-lbs, he does not need to suffer: he can just say goodbye to his diet and load up on chocolate and icecream. It would be fun and he'd save an hour a day

0100 GMT June 30, 2011

Libya so it's official now: the French have been helping the Libyan western mountain tribes, which is why they've done a good job in their advance. Latest is the tribes have reached 65-km from Tripoli. Of course, Gaffy Duck's main forces have been deployed along the coast, so the advance from the south has not met the same resistance.
Nonetheless, the French say they have airdropped 40-tons of arms and ammunition. Reports say they have "smuggled" in some light tanks via Tunisia. "Smuggled" our foot. These have been brought in with full permission from the Tunisian Government and are most likely French 4 x 4 Reconnaissance Fighting vehicles with 90mm guns. Reports also speak of two desert air strips the French are using. 40-tons suffices for a couple of days only; more stuff has to have arrived.
The rumor is French military trainers and advisers are working with the tribes.
Interesting, France did not tell its NATO allies till recently what it was up to, The French rationale is even more pathetically convoluted than the US's, just when we were thinking you can't get more pathetically convoluted than the US. Civilians were being attacked, say the French, so under the UN mandate, to protect civilians we armed them. For heaven's sake, will people stop flogging the spavined UN mandate which is near dead anyway? Just say you're doing what you're doing because it's in your national interest. Finish with these sick rationalizations, already.
Anyway, the military point is that if the rebels get to the southern outskirts of Tripoli, then Gaffy Duck has all but lost. We've already mentioned the thrust from the east, along the coast, and also mentioned that weapons are being smuggled onto Tripoli by the rebels.
Afghanistan We'd like to make a deal with the media. stop writing stupid stories about Afghanistan, and we'll stop criticizing you.
The latest dumbo-fest is by David Ignatius of the Washington Post. He tells us that General Petraeus and the Afghanistan surge have reduced violence by 5% and two provinces have been wrested away from the Taliban namely Helmand and Kandahar.
This is so terribly sweet. Would have been nice if Mr. Ignatius had mention US has simultaneously given us the details of the US withdrawal from Nuristan and several districts including in Kunar, as also exactly how non-existent is the Afghan administration in Kandahar. And if it takes 30,000 troops to reduce violence by 5%, before plaudits all around, let's note 5% is a number so small it could easily be a reporting error. Even if it isn't, so what? So for a 50% reduction we'd need 150,000 more US troops.
As for the US talking to the Taliban, please note what Bill Roggio says: he quotes secretary Gates as saying US is not even sure its talking to real Taliban http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2011/06/is_the_us_really_negotiating_w.php Mr. Roggio says he has stopped writing about "talks" because on every occasion the Taliban negotiators have turned out to be fakes. Nice going, Washington.
And people want to continue perpetuating this mess? What does it get the Washington lot - the Executive, Pentagon, State and so on to say these simple words: "We messed up. Repeatedly. Time to go home."
The Brown University study of Afghanistan-Iraq costs Brown University has released a study on the costs of the these two wars. We have no quarrel with the calculations of US costs. But we are a little concerned about the putting pre-2003 Iraqi costs as attributable to the two wars.
For example, infant mortality shot up from 40 per 1000 to 102 per 1000 between 1990 and 2002. Per capita income dropped from $5510 in 1989 to $866 in 1989. Effects of insufficient food affected 31% of the population in 1990, and 57% in 2002. Etc etc
But these effects came about because Saddam invaded Kuwait and the consequent embargo. These effects had nothing to do with the US invasion of 2003. Moreover, the negative effects of the invasion on the health system had nothing to do with the US. if, for example, hundreds of clinics and hospitals were looted, it was not the Americans who did that but the Iraqis. If the murder rate shot up, it was because the Iraqis were killing each other.
To say the Iraqis could now kill each other because the US 2003 invasion destroyed the administrative structure, is in a way to say Saddam kept the peace by his repression of the majority, and on top of that the repression of all his people, and that was okay.
The study doesn't, obviously, mean to imply this. But blame should be affixed where it belongs.
You can read the study at http://costsofwar.org

0200 GMT June 29, 2011

Why you and I will never get to become IMF Chief So the French candidate for IMF chief was elected and within minutes she issued a statement intended for the Greek government. Very impressive, hit the ground running and all that.
So yesterday afternoon Editor was listening to NPR in the ol' hoopty (but the engine is good, since the car is a Suzuki Swift in disguise, and Editor drives only 6000 miles a year) when someone interviewing Madam Director asked if she thought the Greek crisis was in the beginning, the middle, or the end.
She solemnly said - and we are not making this up - that the crisis was in the middle of the beginning of the end. She said that was very Churchillian. Well, actually no, Churchill was the model of clarity, but that's not our point. Would you be able to come up with such a brilliantly obfusticated answer? We know Editor wouldn't, and he suspects neither would you.
That's why you and I are ordinary Joes, and the French person is IMF Director.
High-speed rail: China 1, US 0 China flagged off its high-speed Shanghai-Beijing train yesterday, 1300-km in five hours. For safety, the train will not hit its top speed of 300-km.
So naturally since we poverty stricken Americans have to console ourselves, people are saying "oh, but there was corruption and safety might have been compromised." Of course. In the US there is never corruption in public works and safety is never compromised. We are so great. No need to mention Katrina, of course. Or the bazillion road and rail bridges that need replacement. No compromise on safety for us, the land of the free and so on. As for unattended railroad crossings - let's not get started. And forget intercity rail, no need to mention Washington DC area's Metrorail, once the finest system in the world.
Others are saying "At $50 per ticket, this will widen the gap between rich and poor because ordinary people won't be able to afford the train." Right on. In America everyone can afford Amtrak's Accela. The shortest trip (fewest stops) between Boston and Washington (~800-km) is 6 1/2 hours and a ticket is $209.
In case the critics have not noticed: Chinese per capita income doubles every 8-9 years. China can afford to build for the future. Can the critics put two-and-two together?
Now, its true that Chinese high-speed rail has not proved economical as yet. So were the Interstates in the US profitable from the first year out? Strictly speaking, none are profitable except for short very-high toll stretches. The Interstate system is supported by tax money for the public good. So perhaps we should shut down the Interstate system on the grounds it doesn't pay for itself?
Now people, we at orbat.com are no great fans of the Chinese. Editor already knows India has but one enemy in the world, and that is China, not Pakistan. The person who visited yesterday has spent many years in China and speaks fluent Chinese, and holds an academic university person teaching/researching China. This person reminded Editor - not that he needed reminding - that China is the threat, and now the Taliban or AQ.
Does that mean we at Orbat.com should run down China's achievements? We don't see how that follows.
In the Washington DC area, there is a huge controversy about extending the Metro to Dulles Airport because an underground station that will take you right inside the terminal will cost $300-million more than one that will stop some distance away, leaving passengers to hump their luggage an additional 200-meters or something, along a moving walkway. The above ground station will not last as long, and really, when one is talking world class there's a difference if you have to cover the additional 200-meters on foot.
But why is there a controversy? Well, because America does not have that $300-million. Nothing very complicated.
Is this the reason some people are doing the sour grapes thing re. China?

0300 GMT June 28, 2011

Sorry about the short update: no one visits Editor, but someone he has not seen in 32 years happened to drop in.

Our man in Caracas aka Hugo is not in Caracas but supposedly recuperating from surgery in his fave country, Cuba. Government says he's fine. US says he's on the verge of death. personally if Hugo is headed for the Hot Place Downstairs, Editor will be pleased: it'll be nice to have interesting company when the Editor gets down there. (He has a reserved seat.)
Remember Anna Chapman the Russian sleeper in the US who was forced to come in from the cold by a mole in Russian intelligence?. (Apparently it was so hot when she emerged that she has been bulking down on clothing, if we can put it politely.) Well apparently a trial in absentia has concluded, sentencing an SVR (foreign operations, Federal Security Service is for internal operations, GRU is still around; KGB of course is defunct) colonel to 25-years for ratting out the sleeper ring in the US. The colonel made good his escape, is supposedly in the US where his two adult kids live, his wife wants to join him but says she doesn't know where he is. Apparently he didn't do the deed for money.
Editor's advice for young spies People who work for ideological reasons and not for money (plus the fun that goes along with money) are very, very dangerous. They are too idealistic and can turn on you just as easily as they joined you. Conversely, if you are a double, make sure you are always hassling the agency you've infiltrated for money. That way they'll think they got you just where they want.
Largest galactic super cluster now said to be 3-billion light-years across. Earlier, these super clusters were reckoned to be hundreds of millions of light-years across. This is creating a problem because according to Big Bang theory, the largest structures in the universe should not be more than hundreds of million light-years across. So either something is wrong with the measurements, or there's a new physics waiting to be discovered.
BTW, we read the other day that Cepheid Variables, which are used to determine the distance of stars/galaxies from us, are not as reliable as thought. We didn't understand the article as our technical knowledge of astronomy is not that great, but the implication was that distances to stars/galaxies may have to be recalculated.
A very common problem in astronomy/astrophysics/cosmology is that every discovery made seems to open up another ten questions. So far from knowing more and more about the universe, the number of questions just seems to keep growing. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/01/110112143218.htm

0100 GMT June 27, 2011

Libya Washington Post did something useful for once: it explained why the Libya campaign is so painfully slow. Apparently NATO is paralyzed by the fear it will kill civilians. So far, it clearly has killed only 15. The loyalists claim 700, but each time journalists have gone to investigate, the government has been able to show proof. We don't count the civilians killed when a high-ranking government supporter's complex was bombed because it was being used for C2. Rules of war apply to both sides, and using civilians as human shields is not lawful. When a man surrounds himself with his family and engages in war or in support of war, he has to take the consequences. Else all one side would have to do is to cart around a bunch of civilians with them, rendering even their military units immune from attack.
In case our reader Ramganesh Aiyer is reading this, we are add that many people don't think NATO's actions are lawful to begin with, so Gaffy Duck's forces hiding behind civilians is irrelevant. And the truth of the matter is, even unrepentant war hawks like Editor are wondering about NATO's pathetic justification. If US, for example, is seeking lawful cover from the UN, it becomes neccessary to ask why the US keeps vetoing anti-Israel resolutions and blocks attempts when countries try and bring up Israel is not in compliance with Resolution ABCD or whatever. If you're going to claim morality, you cannot be selective.
Which is why we believe NATO/US should simply say: bashing Gaffy is in our national interest, there is no right or wrong, we're doing what we have to do and too bad for the Duck. Hypocrisy is avoided. This of course creates another problem: people in US/NATO countries are going to say: "Right, can you explain precisely what the national interest is?"
There is, of course, a long-range national interest. The lack of democracy in the Arab world helps breed extremism. Since the extremists know the security forces will be playing soccer with their heads if they do anything at home, they turn their attention to the Great Satan and his Little Satans (we've given you the name for your next band, a thank you will be nice). But in that case, the US President at least owes the people a coherent policy on democracy in the Arab world. You cant say Libya must be democratic even if we have kill the regime, and then look the other way when Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.
In this connection isn't it nice to know our good allies the Bahrainis are jailing doctors and nurses who went to help wounded demonstrators? if this is not a violation of human rights, we don't know what is. And eight activists have been given life because they asked for democracy. And in Bahrain you have a minority 30% of Sunnis ruling a majority 70% of Shias. What about their human rights?
Back to Libya Things on the ground are moving, but slowly. The ground is being laid for an advance that will take Brega and continue on to link up with Misurata. Just west of Misurata, rebels are stymied at Ziltan, but they're going to make another effort.
The real action seems to be in the southwest. Someone has been busy as beavers training, equipping, and organizing the tribes, because on one axis the rebels are 80-km from Tripoli - they had reached closer but NATO got them to pull back because the rebel positions were too vulnerable at the time.
This time the rebels have reached 30-km from Zahwiya, which is the western gateway to Tripoli.
Loyalist forces attempted to hook behind the rebel Line fo Communication to stop the advance. A couple of months ago this would have led to a rebel collapse. But the rebels counterattacked and efeated the loyalist move.
Couple of points. The western tribes are much better fighters than the motley crew NATO has been trying to whip into shape along the coast. And we hear rumors that NATO has managed to coordinate its air power with the western tribes. we can't speculate on the how, but clearly NATO has some people on the ground to handle the air-to-ground thing.
Editor is now off to have another chocolate This is a strict no-no since he had more than his allocated 1.5-ounces earlier in the day. One of his professors has given him an 82 in a quiz so he needs therapy. Amazon didn't send his textbook so Editor has not been doing his reading: he got an older edition of the text out of the library two days before the quiz, instead of three weeks ago, so obviously his reading/understanding is going to be deficient. But that's his responsibility, not the professor's. Editor did think of going the "I'm so cute" route, the professor being a young lady. But this is an on-line course and the professor seems too smart for these simple remedies. There is a lot to be said for face-to-face classes. Editor has never failed with "I'm so cute" defense in face-to-face. And what the heck: if the women use it with the male professors, why cant Editor use it with his lady professors.
Yes, yes, readers will say when the professor is a 70-year old male and the women students are 25-year old cutie pies, that will work. But how can it work when the lady professors are in their mid 30s and Editor is near 70, AND with his looks. Can we not be so negative about everything, please? Where there is life there is hope. Now, where is that chocolate...

0100 GMT June 26, 2011

Further proof America is going to heck and beyond Scene: Paris Air Show 2011. Airliner score: Airbus - 910 for $88-billion. Boeing - 141 for $23-billion. yes, yes, by all means lets make excuses such as Boeing does not usually announce big orders during air shows. Whichever way you look at it, Airbus has whipped Boeing's sad behind. We don't follow civil aviation much anymore, but are told the problem is Airbus has a super fuel efficient A320 which Asian airlines in particular buy for the burgeoning domestic air traffic in the region. Two airlines - Air Asia with 200 and India's Indigo with 180 - alone bought 380 jets. To put the new engine on the Boeing competitor, the 737, will require raising the undercarriage as the engines are big and fat. Apparently raising undercarriages is easier said than done and Boeing is not particularly enthusiastic about it. The aircraft Boeing does really well, like the 777 for thin long-haul routes, are not required in anything like the numbers of A320neo and 737 that are required. At the top end, Boeing's 747-8 has a tough competitor in the Airbus 380.
Afghan Parliament Crisis We are wholly unconvinced anyone cares about this, but then we are famous for stories on issues about which no one cares.
So in the last parliamentary election Hamid Karzai lost ground. So he appointed a special judicial commission, which said the other day that 62 seats were won by the opposition using fraud. Problem is, there is no provision for setting up such a commission, and parliament certainly did not agree. So now the opposition has gotten together to call for the impeachment of the five top Afghan judges, because they refused to intervene when the opposition said the commission was illegal.
Afghanistan's Independent Election Commission threw out a quarter of the election (September 2010) vote because of fraud, which hit Karazi hard. The IEC says there cannot be another recount after the elections were certified.
Meanwhile, Reuters notes that Karzai has still not been able to form a cabinet after he won the 2009 presidential election, which was almost universally condemned as fraudulent.
Our purpose in bringing this up is not to say: "Afghan people bad people". Afghans are what they are. When you lack strong state institutions - which have never existed in Afghanistan - this democracy business is not easy. Our purpose is to ask: "What the heck do we Americans think we are doing in Afghanistan?"
Pakistan and its institutions of state We keep getting asked why Pakistan seems to be in a perpetual mess. Truthfully, we don't know because we have little clue about South Asian politics. Off and on we've been told that after independence Pakistan did not create strong institutions, whereas India was blessed by having a very strong administrative, judicial, police, military, and political set up. The Congress, which led India to independence, had been around for sixty years, for example. Pakistan started out with almost nothing. Worse, almost immediately the military got a taste for being the dominant power. So strong institutions never got a chance to grow. we realize this is ultra simplistic, and we invite anyone from any viewpoint to provide a better explanation.
Greece Everywhere we look, it is said the question is not IF Greece will default, but WHEN. There is no way Greece can pay back what it borrowed. The financial austerity required by the international lenders is reducing Greece's GDP, making it even harder to pay back. Some Greek bonds, we are told, are going at 30% interest, which is just a polite way of saying people just want to make as much money off Greece before it goes bust.
Is there no solution? A number of people have said there is. Unload the riskiest of Greece borrowings into a separate set of bonds which will be sold for whatever the market is willing to pay. These bondholders will take a haircut, but at least they won't get a big fat zero, which will happen if Greece does go best. The other bonds should be guaranteed by international banks, governments etc, which will push the interest rates seriously down. Greece's repayment load will come down dramatically. Continue the structural reforms, perhaps a bit more slowly to cause less hardship to ordinary folks. Three, five, six - whatever is your choice - years later the economy will be fine.
Someone told us that Greece has been in default for 50% of the time in the last 150 years, so what is the big deal here if Greece goes into default? Our response was: "You're asking us what is the big deal? We've been saying the US should default and start all over again because there is no way the US has the political will to stop growing its deficit, forget about keeping it constant, and forget about paying it down. as far as we're concerned, it is no big deal."
BTW, we learn from Business Week that the total US debt is NOT $62-trillion as some are claiming. That figure counts money that has to be paid out in the future, when a dollar will be worth less than it is now. Moreover, if the Government is in future debt to its people, the people have an asset to offset the debt.
Please do not write in saying this is not the way it works. Editor started out studying economics in college, and it gave him severe migraines. So he dropped it for something simple and easy, international relations. No work required. Fifty page paper? No problem. Just check a few references to make sure one had dates right, and do the paper in three days. The rest of time it was too much wine, too much song, wonder how I got along. Ah, the happy days of one's youth. Of course, already a Mrs. Rikhye (The First) was on the scene to ruin one's happiness when one got really happy, but what can one do. To complain about the above, write to Business Week. The item is in its June 27, 2011 issue, page 10.

0100 GMT June 25, 2011

Should media people write on subjects in which they are not expert?

We want to make it clear we are not beating up anyone for the joy of beating them up today. We have a lot of fun beating up media people because its so easy to do we don't have to work at all hard. Its like sitting in your duck hide and shooting one-winged ducks. Neither skill nor effort is required. No. Today we are raising a serious point.
Take first David Ignatius who writes on, among other things, Afghanistan-Pakistan. He's apparently a pretty good novelist too, judging by the reviews. He has visited the region about a gazillion times. But he still hasn't figured out that US objectives are not Pakistani objectives. He persists in a strange, mystical belief that if only the US puts it the right way to Pakistan, Pakistan will turn against the Taliban. That the Pakistanis see the Taliban as an extension of their armed forces, to be used to support Pakistani security objectives, is something Mr. Ignatius has not yet figured out.
He also doesn't seem to have figured out there are three types of Taliban: pro Pakistan, anti Pakistan, and those who are sometimes pro and sometimes anti. Further, he doesn't see that the anti lot are those Taliban that have turned against the Pakistani state because, they say, the Pakistanis have sold out to the Americans. In other words, not that Americans are the solution to the Taliban as Mr. Ignatius thinks, but the problem, the reason these fellows turned against Pakistan. Now, we realize the Taliban situation is a lot more complex, but this is not a scholarly treatise. The sole point we are making is that Pakistan has no reason to turn against even the anti-Pakistan Taliban, because they were, are, and remain valuable assets that Pakistan hopes to bring around.
It is a great mystery to us that Mr. Ignatius does not see this, because by ignoring the simplest facts, he is arriving at completely wrong conclusions. It does not matter what America does, Pakistan will not abandon the Taliban. Even if tomorrow the US was to up military sales to $10-billion a year, allow export of top-of-the-line equipment, guarantee Pakistan's security against India under all conditions, including coming to Pakistan's aid if Pakistan attacks India, and even if Pakistan breaks all ties to India, Pakistan will still not abandon the Taliban.
Why? Because Pakistan does not trust the US. It doesn't matter what Mr. Ignatius says about how Pakistan's future security lies in listening to America, the Pakistanis have a 60-year history with the US. And they know - surprise! - that US objectives and Pakistani objectives are different, and no matter what the US says today, tomorrow it will have different objectives, and say goodbye to Pakistan with the same regret as Hugh Hefner said to his would-be-runaway-bride. The man was so broken up that within a week he has another woman on his arm, and best of all, she's been living with him all along.
Now let's go on to Michael Gerson, who is a modest, conservative analyst but not particularly ideological. He's low key and careful with his words and is not determined, like some media people, to ram his genius down our resisting gullets.
Imagine our surprise when in yesterday Washington Post, he criticizes Mr. Obama's pullout of the Afghan surge forces before 2014. He has talked to lieutenant colonels in the field, and they tell him that they need 2-3 more fighting seasons to weaken the Taliban, so that by 2014 the Afghan security forces will be ready to take over. We do have to concede that Mr. Gerson added the word "hopefully".
First, is it really appropriate to draw conclusions about national war policy from what battalion commander say? Which battalion commander worth his salt is going to say: "We need to pack up and go home"? Does Mr. Gerson perhaps not realize that a battalion commander who says "we need to go home, this is hopeless" is not the officer that the Army wants and is not likely to have a nice, productive career in the army? Who, for example, wants a doctor who says: "look, we're going to spend $100,000 and we may add four months to this man's life, a life he was live in hospital under the most painful and undignified of conditions; best to let him go."? And in any case do we want to decide - say - our foreign policy by polling half a dozen 2nd Secretaries (Political)?
But in a sense our objections are beside the point. The real issue is: who in his or her right mind thinks the Afghan security forces will be ready in 2014, or even 2018? We have discussed before how the US ignoring all the rules about building up national armies, has made the Afghan security forces into Mini Me clones of itself. One result is an Army, eight years later, that cannot field one single battalion that can fight on its own. But even that is beyond the point. We've discussed desertion rates of 60% despite the Afghan recruit being paid what an Indian Army captain is paid, and more money/beneifts than university teachers in Afghanistan get. We've discussed how CI depends on the police, not the army, and the agency more feared - much more feared - in Afghanistan than the worst of the Taliban is the Afghan police.
How does the US propose to change centuries old cultures of corruption and misuse of power? And even this is irrelevant because Afghan has never been the kind of unitary state the US sees neccessary as to keep AQ and the Taliban at bay. At best the main cities and the roads by day have been under central control. For the rest, the Afghans do as they jolly well feel like. Does anyone really believe the US can build a modern, democratic, unitary state by 2022 or even 2030?
And yet, you can scrap all the reasoning we've given as irrelevant. This is because the US involvement in Afghanistan is not free of opportunity cost. The only time you can ignore cost is when you are engaged in a mortal struggle for national existence. At all other times, you have to ask: we have certain objectives in Afghanistan, can we afford to spend $120-billion/year to achieve those objectives when we have five hundred other major objectives, domestic and international?
If the cost of Afghanistan was $20-billion/year - and we've discussed how the cost can be brought down - we'd say, "carry on! The involvement is worth it". But who in their right mind can argue $120-billion/year is worth it when there is zero likelihood we will achieve any of our objectives?
Why is an intelligent person like Mr. Gerson not seeing this very simple point?

0100 GMT June 24, 2011

Libya Seems to be another offensive building up at Zlitan, just west of Misurata. We'd mentioned the rebels mucked up the earlier offensive by failing to coordinate their rocket attacks with their infantry advance and so did not make progress. Yesterday NATO said it had hit 15 loyalist vehicles around Zlitan, including armored vehicles, so presumably another push is in the making. we have no news on the push from the South West on Tripoli.
we ignore the reports of civilian casualties - one genuine and one as collateral damage, and the alleged split in NATO, desperate to salvage its business interests appealed for a ceasefire to "deliver aid". The press is having a good time with its usual memes, but this is not going to stop NATO.
Here is the press on Libya the other day: NATO suffered a setback as it lost a drone helicopter. Really? Losing a piece of military equipment in a war is a setback? So we already know the press expects the west to fight wars without suffering any casualties, so now the west must fight without losing equipment? The other day a French fighter returned to its carrier after jettisoning its bomb load in the Mediterranean, as it was unable to hit its target without risking collateral damage. Terrible setback! NATO is on the verge of defeat! Lets run for our lives and hide under our beds! But not before we shoot the media!
Gaffy Duck is having problems. The rebels have captured fifty navy personnel who were sent to fight "Al Qaeda" on land. Now, you can say that Gaffy may as well use his navy as infantry since he doesn't have any more ships. But this does hint of a shortage of personnel.
The Rabbi and the Dog Christian Science Monitor says the story about a religious court sentencing a dog to death because the spirit of a lawyer they didn't like was in the dog (due to the court's curse) is fake. Someone told someone who wrote up a story in an Israeli paper which was then picked up[ by someone else and so and so forth until it was picked up by the western media. all that happened, says CSM, is that some random dog entered the court and a judge told children to drive it away by throwing rocks at it. http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0621/Did-a-Jerusalem-court-really-sentence-a-dog-to-death-by-stoning
Gee. Too bad. It was such a nice story.
Mr. James Bulgar of Boston is apparently not a Nice Guy. He would not be invited to tea either with the Lowells or the Cabots. An 81-year old mobster he was wanted for 19 murders, was on the run for 16 years, and had a $2-million reward on his head, the most ever offered for a domestic Wanted.
Well, on Tuesday the FBI put out some kind of ad on 250 outlets, describing his girlfriend. On Wednesday Mr. Bulgar was in custody. if this is not fast work, we don't know what is, and full marks to the FBI. Just shows if you change the way you look at a seemingly intractable problem, you can solve it.
We read that Mr. Bulgar was the inspiration for the exceptionally violent movie "Departed", but then what do you expect from Martin Scorsese. Editor hates violent movies, and somehow ended up going to it with someone, and has regretted it since. What Mr. Scorsese and his counterpart Mr. Quentin Tarantino need to do is actually see a couple of people killed. That will get them to think twice before they make porn-violence movies.
Now, this is long ago, but the Editor seems to remember one year in Boston where two gangs were busy killing each other, with the murders going up into the scores. The Boston law enforcement authorities were laughing themselves silly as every week another murder and a retaliation took place. We tried to track down the story in Wikipedia, with no luck. If anyone remembers the gang war, please let us know. The Boston Strangler, of course, anyone old enough and still alive will remember.
Indian Air Force requested US engine buy for its fleet of 130 SEPCAT Jaguars (inducted starting 1978, if we recall right the buy was 140 and then attrition aircraft were added). The 280 engines would be sourced from Honeywell. The sole company in the competition for the new engine, Rolls Royce, backed out.
So to us what's interesting is that India does not do sole-source contracts - again, its fears of being accused of taking bribes - and this among other reasons is the rest for the complete, utter, unbelievable mess in Indian defense procurement. There is only one major military in the world that has more obsolete equipment than the Indian, and that's the PLA.
Nonetheless, this time the Government seems prepared to listen to the Indian Air Force which needs the engines as soon as possible (the issue should have been decided by now) to rework its Jaguars and start reversing the big shortfall in fighter squadrons, as one program after another has been delayed.
It will be interesting to see if the Government of India comes to its senses. And this will be another $2-billion order with the US, something to make the Americans feels less bad about losing the $10-billion competition for 126 fighters. Hopefully that competition will be sorted out and the aircraft inducted before Continental Drift again leads to a reformation of Pangaea, say some 500-million to 1000-million years in the future. (We don't know for a fact we'll get another Pangaea, but if the continents keep wandering around as they have apparently since Earth formed, they have to meet up again at some point.)
http://defensenews.com/story.php?i=6893394&c=ASI&s=AIR

0100 GMT June 23, 2011

Very Important News Wimbledon officials are set to tell lady players to dial back on the grunts and wails as they play. The noise is disturbing their opponents and running the experience for viewers. One lady reached 95 db this tournament. That equates to a subway train at 70-meters. Its not one grunt, but a series of grunts. Maria Sharpova has some kind of record, making 105 db in 2009. That's equal to a power mower at 1-meter.
Not so important news US will withdraw 5,000 troops from Afghanistan next month, and another 5,000 by year end.
News of the weird A British teenager who is a member of the hacker group Lulzsec was arrested by Scotland Yard in the process of taking down a British law enforcement website. He is wanted in several other denial of service attacks, including on the CIA, Facebook, and Sony. The FBI helped nabbed him, but the Brits are saying they have to do their thing before extraditing him
But, says UK Telegraph, he could fight extradition on grounds he is ADHD and has Emotional Behavioral Disorder. His mother says: "I'm really worried. He could seriously harm or even kill himself. He is incredibly intelligent but he has very complex needs."
Among this "incredibly intelligent" person's misdeed was locking out his school from the school computer network when he was 12.
Now, going by DSM-IV, Editor suffers from" ADD/ADHD, EBD (he goes wild if you say "No" to him), Bipolar Syndrome, Associative Identity Disorder, Multiple Personality Disorder (he has several personalities and names depending on the phases of the moon, the last digit of the US budget deficit, and the speed with which the universe is expanding: his working names include George, Eduardo Edward Edwardes, Walter Mitty, and El Grouchy), Serotonin Inhibition Disorder, Paranoid Personality Disorder (he's always hyper alert because he thinks his ex-wives will kidnap his Teddy Bears), and Histrionic Personality Disorder. He also suffers from Iowa Superiority Order (the correct belief that being from Iowa he is always correct), and 4-Way Stop Sign Disorder (this is the urge to - um - mark stop signs at 4-way stops, particularly after ingesting 12 Green Bottles of Bear), Sexual Addiction Disorder (he's always looking at attractive ladies and plotting how to approach them); Obsessive Compulsive Disorder (he cannot sleep unless his four pillows are arranged in a certain order); Boring Food Disorder (he eats the same meals every single day); Computer Addiction Disorder; Obsessive Truth Disorder (has a need to always tell idiots they are idiots); Chocolate Addictive Disorder; Cardboard Shack Disorder (can never make money); Generalized Envy Syndrome (hates everyone who is better-looking than him, has more money, and has more dates, which pretty much is every male in the world over the age of 18); and Jewish Mother Disorder (he is always concerned that - er - slim, attractive women are not getting enough to eat and insists on taking them them home to feed).
So back in the day when Editor was 19, they had a very simple solution to all these disorders. The medicine was administered via means of a cane vigorously applied to one's rear end by school masters with arms like the comic character Thor, and came in three flavors: three-of-the-best, six-of-the-best, and twelve-of-the-best.
So here's Editor's offer to the British authorities. He'll waddle over to England, and administer twelve-of-the-best with a limp noodle to the offender. The offender being not the kid, but his blitheringly idiotic mother.
Say...there's another disorder right there. Who in their right mind wants to whack young women on their rear ends with a limp noodle, for gosh sakes. Yes, sir, the Editor is one sick puppy. He's sure to be exempted from punishment for his next 100 felonies, at least.
More to the point, as one 6th Grader once asked the Editor: "Teacher, when a student is crazy why do teachers always say 'but he's very intelligent'?" Good point. Because we teachers suffer from Euphemistic Politically Correct Disorder, that's why.
Boeing has 8 VIP 747-8s which retail for $318-million in standard airline configuration. These 8 will, of course, have customized interiors as they are for VIPs. These people have not been identified, but are assumed to be heads of oil states and other public-spirited characters like them.
Editor, of course, can't afford the $1000 for the 50cc scooter he has been trying to buy for the last eight years. This sort of news gets him into a bad mood, and makes him want to drop heavy barbells on the delicate toes of these people. Editor feels another disorder coming on...
But someone at least has a sense of humor about it - not the Editor, who wants to follow up the barbells with hot oil. A reader writes into Reuters, which carries the story: "I’m one of the buyer’s, just don’t tell my wife".
Hugo Watch El Commadante has not been heard from since a June 10 operation. Rahul Castro did visit, and there was a foto op. But no speeches, tweets, sermons, exhortations. The doctors say all is well, there's a two-week recovery from the operation. Fair enough, but that doesn't explain why Hugo is so quiet. he's the sort you can't stop from talking even under complete anesthesia.

0100 GMT June 22, 2011

US plans to bring a 10 petaflop computer on-line this year and is working on a 20-petaflop machine (Cray Titan for Oak Ridge, 2012). Under development Cray+DARPA 2015 new technology machine to start at 100-PF and top 250-PF by 2017. Then by 2018 comes the Cray 1000-PF (1 Ekaflop, 1 x 10^18) machine. Will this restore the US to the top? perhaps, but we don't know what the other countries are up to. Incidentally, a quantum computer the size of a notebook can simulate, in a few minutes, the lives of all 100-billion humans who have walked the earth. This is apropos the cosmological theory that we live in a computer simulation. (Note to self: ask Santa for such a quantum computer for X-Mas. It would sure make for a better game of Risk.)

The Future of Afghanistan

Major AH Amin (Pakistan Army, Retired)

· The USA has few cards in Afghanistan.

The Pakistanis/ISI are not the masters of Afghanistan's destiny, although one may state that the Taliban in Afghanistan south of line Wardak-Shindand are Pakistan dependent as are near-Pakistani proxies.

Kunnar, Laghman, Nuristan is a different game. It is Al Qaeda plus a combination of anti Pakistan Taliban groups with a heavy mixture of Swat. Dir, Bajaur, and Mohmand Talibans.

he north is to a large extent pro Russian groups controlled with exception of pockets of Taliban in Baghlan and Kunduz. The Northern Alliance, Dostum and some other commanders will definitely look towards Russia, India and Iran rather than Pakistan.

A new Northern Alliance is already being created with possible aerial fire support at Kulyab, Dehdadi, Kunduz and Herat Airfields. Russia will not allow the Taliban to have a clean run north of Hindu Kush; neither would Iran and India

In all probability the Taliban will have a clean run till line Kabul-Shindand but no further north.

US has already abandoned large parts of Kunnar, Laghman, and Nuristan where the anti Pakistan Taliban are based.

Note that 80 % of Taliban out of which 90 % are from Afghanistan regard Pakistan as a friend. There is no Pakistani regular army all along the 1500 Km stretch of Afghan border from Zhob to Taftan which is freely used for logistics by the 90 % of Taliban who are against USA and already pro Pakistan.

The result will be an Afghanistan again divided in north and south regardless of Pakistan or USA liking it.

That Pakistan has been using Pashtuns as its pawns in its wars is now even very clear to the Pashtuns. The greatest beneficiary of money from Afghan wars has been the North Punjab.

My fear is that Taliban backlash against Pakistan will be some kind of subconscious Pashtun backlash against Pakistan where Pashtuns will use religion to justify rebellion and even taking over Pakistan or some kind of secession. Here they would be aided by a simultaneous Baloch war of secession and a Punjab and Sindh paralyzed by inflation and unemployment.

Pakistan is a suicide bombers factory. India may not be ideal but at least a young man can hope something in India but not in Pakistan which is a bastion of corruption, nepotism and red tapism. Inflation, poverty and despondency makes Pakistanis kill themselves or aspiring to kill some one, if not physically then spiritually and morally.

A military coup in Pakistan can also not be ruled out. It has not succeeded before but it may next time.

A serious strategic imbalance of Pakistan is that all institutions have lost their coercive value. This includes the military, the ISI and everybody who once mattered.

The majority in Pakistan may be moderate but the extremists are the best organized and most ready to die. So Pakistan may be the worst nightmare of this world in next five to ten years.

The Pakistani military and intelligence and its security apparatus is just not capable of containing extremism. What can the omnipotent USA do about it if they cannot manage to make an Frontier Corps training centre worth 31 Million USD at Tank which was long planned, or bring 1000-MW electricity to Pakistan because of the closing down of the CASA 1000 project.

An Indo Pak showdown with nuclear weapons may become a reality within next five years.

With water resources decreasing and population rising an Indo-Pak conflict is a matter of few years unless Pakistan breaks down from within, not into Balkanization, but into a constant civil war bordering near breakdown.

The militarization of the Indo-Pak has to see a showdown unless one party breaks down without a war. Pakistan seems more likely and the last resort may be a nuclear exchange or a cold start war with India which further weakens Pakistan.

The US would not be able to make a dent with India over Pakistan as Pakistan is a solid Chinese concubine although its US relationship is a more temporary and fluctuating Mutaah or Sigheh (Temporary Marriage).

0100 GMT June 21, 2011

Japanese claim super-computer record with 8.2-petaflop machines, three times faster than the previous record-holder, a Chinese machine. A petaflop is a quadrillion (1 x 10^15) floating point operations per second. We were once told by a computer person that a flop can involve anywhere between 2 and 50 instructions; we assume there is some sort of standard task that computers use as a benchmark.

It pains us to print this news, because its just another indicator America is on the Long Goodbye. US is third at Oak Ridge, and also owns slots 7, 8, 9, and 10. Japanese or Chinese own 1, 2, 4, 5, 6. Pretty pathetic.

US drones New York Times has an article on the US drone program at http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/20/world/20drones.html?src=me&ref=world The news about US developing microdrones is old stuff, but there's lots of new information in the article.

A normal drone - we're assuming Predator/Reaper size - requires 19 analysts to read the feed. But Gorgon Stare, the drone that covers a whole city, needs 2000.

US is already annually training more drone pilots than air combat pilots.

ten years ago, US had 50 drones. Now it has 7000, the bulk of which are with the Army. 4800 are Ravens, the smallest Army drone, with a 1-meter span Raven. In the next 10-years the number of multiple-purpose large drone is to go from about 140 to 536 whereas the number of manned aircraft will decrease. That number may include drone fighters.

One analyst terms the drone age as the "post-heroic age".

Israeli analysis of Syria's Assad is available at http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=225868 Nothing much new, but the article is useful as a summary. It clearly says what we already know, is that the Syrian leader is locked into a zero sum game with his people. If he quits, the Alewites will be massacred, including him. If the protestors quit, the security forces will track them down in their homes and finish them off.

BTW, we're a bit bewildered at the news that Israeli Air Force is cross-posting two pilots to ground units in a new program to ensure better air-ground cooperation. The US Marines worked this out more than fifty years if not more, if memory serves, when flying Marines used to serve tours with the infantry units for air-ground coordination.

0100 GMT June 20, 2011

Grapevine says President Obama will declare Afghan War won 20 of AQ's 30 top leaders have been killed, the President's camp argues the remainder are too scared to plan any more attacks. Ergo, we have won. Ergo, we can sing sayonara, ciao baby, its been real, or TTFN (Ta Ta For Now). This is to see a faster withdrawal than planned.

Frankly, we don't care what artifice President uses as long as we get out. If we can't win a war in 10 years, it's no use asking for another 10. Assuming a US Prez could be in office for 10 years, we think its unlikely he could plead things are getting better, let him stay, and they will be okay. Similarly, no CEO of a company would be allowed to stay after 10 years, at the end of which his/her idea for winning is s/he needs another 10 years. Why should the military be any different?

If after 10 years Editor gets to ask for another 3, or 5, or ten, heck, even he could win the war. Might even get a date on Saturday.

If the military wants to stay for 10 years, there's a simple way. Cut annual Afghanistan spending to $20-billion. These days we speak of trillions, no one will even remember there's a war going on if the bill is $20-billion/year.

Correct facts, correct conclusion, wrong reasoning Should it matter if a proposition that has the right facts and the right conclusion, but the wrong reasoning be considered valid? Our inclination is to say no.

George Will, the Washington Post analyst who writes using so many $1 dollar words instead of one-penny words that Editor could retire rich if he got a dollar for every big George Will word, argues that (a) Europe is getting a free ride off the US in NATO because we doubled our spending between 2001-2011 while Eros dropped theirs by 15%; (b) its time we rethought NATO with a view to ending the alliance.

This is all true. But the reasoning is incorrect. US has doubled its defense spending not for NATO's sake, but for its own foolish ventures. Then it has sat on NATO's head and forced NATO to support America's foolishness. So we don't agree NATO is getting a free ride off US, we think US is benefiting from NATO, and in any case NATO's political support is far more important than the military.

This said, Mr. Will is absolutely correct: its time NATO was abolished. NATO was created to counter a Soviet takeover of Western Europe, NATO succeeded. Soviet Union dissolved its equivalent, the Warsaw Pact, when the Soviet Union went under. But all of a sudden instead of winding up NATO, the alliance gave itself several new mandates and began expanding.

NATO started with 12 countries. Fourteen more joined. Now NATO is looking to expand further. Four countries are working on plans to join. Seven more could join in the future. That would bring it up 37 countries.

Now, in fairness, a lot of those new NATO members are new countries, life several FSU nations. But the point is, what is going on here? To us, all the reasons given to keep NATO and to enlarge it are rationalizations to keep in place a giant bureaucracy that has outlived its time and needs to end. World War 2 ended 66 years ago. The Cold War ended 21 years ago. A small coordinating staff of a couple of hundred is all that is needed for contingencies.

And ironically, the bigger NATO gets, the fewer forces it has to deploy. Its definitely time to say TTFN.

0100 GMT June 19, 2011

Solution to Euro Crisis: Get Germany Out of the Zone? There's nothing Editor likes better than solutions that turn intractable problems upside down. Edmund Conway of UK Telegraph opines that the Eurozone problem is not that Greece is too weak, but Germany is too strong. Ergo, pull Germany out, Euro sinks to a realistic level. This leads to a devaluation of debt, but that's better than a default, and it allows stricken countries like Greece, Spain, and Portugal to build up their exports.

Love this idea for its simplicity. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8584064/Why-Germany-must-exit-the-euro.html

Afghan President Confirms US Talking to Taliban Ever since we realized US/NATO is going to lose the war against the Taliban (thanks in large part to Pakistan), we've suggested US come to terms with the Taliban and partition Afghanistan. West and North Afghanistan are resolutely anti-Taliban, and there should be no reason the Taliban should be permitted to take over these regions. South and East are comfortable with the Taliban, so let Taliban have those regions.

This does not mean US abandons East and South. Make the Taliban our BFF, using something no one can resist: cold cash. Use that leverage to moderate Taliban social policies.

So we're saying US should be allies of both the Taliban and the anti-Taliban. But, people will say: how can US ally with these massive violators of human rights? Easy. US is already allied with Saudi, which other than the Taliban is likely one of the biggest violators of human rights in the world. And the US is BFF with China, which last time we checked was not exactly big on HR. If the US believes it can change China by engagement, how much easier to engage the 10-million odd people of a very poor country.

Meanwhile, UN has split its Taliban/AQ sanctions list into two, to encourage Taliban to talk peace.

Unpleasant fact, FYI China now holds $1.1-trillion of US bonds, up about $300-billion since end 2008. At that time China also held $300-billion of other American securities, which the above March 2011 figure excludes. (China has dropped its holdings of T-bills, otherwise that $1.1-trillion figure would be even higher.)

So what's going on here? Wasn't China supposed to be getting out of US Government debt?

Well, China proposes, US disposes and all that. China's trade surplus is so whackingly huge it doesn't have any other place to put its money.

Hey, Islam has no monopoly on religious crazies Here's a story about an Israeli rabbinical court. So 20 years back a secular lawyer used to plead before the religious courts and insult the religious judges - at least that's the way the judges tell the story. The judges cursed the lawyer's spirit to enter a dog as retaliation.

So the lawyer has been gone to his just reward and all that for some time. Fast forward to some weeks ago. A dog entered the court premises and would not leave. A judge remembered the ho-ha from way back. "Oh no! The lawyer has come back!" cried the judge. Horror. Panic.

Judges being clever people devised a solution: sentence the dog to death by stoning and call upon the local children to execute the sentence. Simply brilliant thinking!

So the dog went one up: it escaped. Those secular lawyers are so dashed clever!

An Israeli animal rights group lodged a complaint with the police. The judges denied they had passed such a sentence. But a court official implies they did.

Read all about it at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13819764

0100 GMT June 18, 2011

OPEC: News we missed Apparently there is a serious split in OPEC. Venezuela and Iran want Saudi to cut back production to raise prices. The Saudis refused and are making sure the market is "well-supplied" as suits them. We'd noted earlier that a Saudi official openly said it is to his country's advantage to keep the US hooked on cheap oil - though we don't see what's cheap about $80, which is the price he mentioned to keep the US addicted. The idea is to stay below prices that make new-technology oil recovery uneconomical, as well as fend off alternate energies.

Meanwhile, Kuwait is handing over money to families - $4500/family plus providing free staples for households including their servants. Idea is to insulate Kuwait from the run-up in food prices, which is said to be a factor behind the Arab revolts.

We were wrong: There is gold at Ft. Knox Lest you think we have become Ron Paul disciples, Editor has maintained for decades there is little gold at Ft. Knox, US stocks being in New York. The whole gold situation was highly suspicious because no US officials were allowed to inspect the vaults at Ft. Knox. Now after decades they have been inspected, and the official says there's lots of gold there.

Needless to say, however, he doesn't say how much. So we don't think our thesis that the bulk of the gold is in New York collapses, but we intuitively feel the thesis is weakened.

US reinforces Mideast/Mediterranean? Reader Jonathan Weygandt says his Israeli contacts tell him US is preparing to attack Syria, while he sends another source http://www.infowars.com/u-s-invasion-of-libya-set-for-october/ that speaks of US preparing for a Libya invasion in October. The source says he is told there is a "massive" movement of units at Ft. Hood.

Now here's the difficulty. There are Israelis who delight several times a year in predicting US attacks somewhere or the other in the Arab world. www.debka.com is a "usual suspects". We just checked on their website and yes, they are talking about US naval reinforcements off Syria. Not once has Debka's prognostication come true. Re. Ft. Hood, we will defer to those better informed, but isn't 1st Armored Division changing stations to Ft. Bliss? Might this be the source of rumors about movements?

This reminds us that we haven't yet updated the US Army page for Concise World Armies. US is always chopping and changing, activating and deactivation, organizing and reorganizing, much like an ADHD kid with a Lego set, and this makes it difficult for a non-specialist to keep track. Our US correspondent, like many of our network, has dropped out because of no pay or minimal pay. We kept getting people praising CWA, but very, very few people buy it. We need 100 sales/year to pay correspondents, and we are nowhere near that. It's kind of odd that after seven years we still haven't got the business part down. But you can either produce the thing, or you can sell it. Editor hasn't any selling skills.

Ah, to be Franch! So France enacted a burqa ban some time ago, and two women were charged with wearing the garments which hide the face beside the body. The French are not concerned about people covering their bodies, they do object to full-face veiling and they have a point. If your religion requires you to do things that go against the custom, culture, and now law of your country, you can make an exception or you can leave. for example, Islam permits a man four wives, we don't see anyone in the states saying their religious freedom is violated because US allows only one. (We're not quite clear on the Mormon thing - perhaps readers can explain? Nonetheless, you're unlikely to find yourself living next to a Mormon with several wives.)

So anyway, we drift from our point. One of the women showed up in court to answer charges. She was wearing the full burqa. So the police refused her entry. So she went home.

Just another example of how modern liberals can tie themselves up in knots so extreme that they strangle themselves. No need for the west's enemies to worry about finishing us off. We will do the job for our enemies.

India Shining takes a moment to remind us of its famed idiots So there's the chief minister of a state (governor) to which Sardar Patel, the giant who forged modern India post-1947. The chief minister now has floated tenders to build a 180-meter statute of the man at a cost of $300-million. Is his state - admittedly a dynamic economic powerhouse - so rich it can afford $300-million for the tallest statue in the world? Well, no. Like all Indian states, Gujarat has millions of poor who live in near-starvation. The chief minister feels no responsibility for them. They lack enough to eat, but they'll get to come and look at the statue.

To add insult to injury, India still accepts foreign aid. UK alone gives near half-billion dollars a year, and people have been asking why. They have a point. All countries who give aid to India need to make sure that $300-million is taken out of the money that goes to Gujarat. That's the only way, short of hanging them, idiots like this chief minister can be made to understand.

BTW, in a couple of years India's GDP will hit $2-trillion. There is absolutely no need whatsoever for India to be asking for any aid from anyone. But that's India's rulers and elite for you. They are addicted to begging. absolute disgrace.

0100 GMT June 17, 2011

Al-Zawahiri become AQ Head He was Number 2 to Osama Bin Laden. so US says it will track him down like it did OBL. Of course, we're working of a limited statistical base, but Zawahiri should have another ten years of a quiet life before he leaves us permanently.

Rebels coordinating attacks says NYT "Their efforts were evident this week, rebels say, as they initiated new attacks in the east from Benghazi toward the oil port of Brega; on the central coast from Misurata toward the pivotal barracks town of Zlitan; and from their newest stronghold in the Nafusah Mountains into the town of Zawiyah on the doorstep of the capital." http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/17/world/africa/17libya.html?_r=1&hp

Rebels claim they have been managing to smuggle weapons into Tripoli and that clashes between loyalists and rebels are taking place. Earlier, of course, Tripoli was quiet because the loyalists had thoroughly squelched the unarmed opposition. NYT says security check posts seems to be fewer in the capital. Rebels say they have also managed to smuggle satphones into loyalist held areas all over Libya, and this is improving their coordination.

NATO is urging rebels to pull back from their rapid advance from the SW on Tripoli. Presumably this to clear the way for air strikes.

New Israeli electrically powered mini-drones are discussed by Aviation Week at http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story.jsp?id=news/dti/2011/06/01/DT_06_01_2011_p23-322600.xml&headline=Electric%20UAVs%20Jolt%20Performance&channel=defense The new developments include a hydrogen fuel-cell powered mini-drone. These tactical drones operate at very low acoustic levels for added stealth.

Picture of Black Hole snacking on a passing star Though the BBC does not specifically say so, this is not an actual photograph. The image is constructed from data gathered by an orbiting X-Ray observatory.

Black holes have to do what they have to do, but this feller needs a sound spanking for egregiously bad behavior. You can't be so greedy as to snatch up anyone who happens to pass by unsuspectingly.

The article says astronomers expect these events once every 100-million years per galaxy. It would seem we have been incredibly lucky to get the image.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-13783877

New Ozzie MH-60Rs We've been doing much gnashing of teeth over the high cost of aircraft these days. Now comes the high costs of helicopters. While admittedly the new Australian maritime MH-60Rs are top of the line, the price is US$130-million for each of the 24 ordered. More gnashing of teeth and many exclamations of "Mama Mia!" http://defensenews.com/story.php?i=6835735&c=ASI&s=AIR

Iran launches 2nd satellite says IRNA http://www.irna.ir/ENNewsShow.aspx?NID=30434924&SRCH=1 The first one was launched in 2009 and was a comsat. This new one is a mapping satellite, but it weighs only 15-kg so we're not sure about its utility or capability. Any readers care to comment?

1-in-5 Brits cannot see their GP within 2-days says UK Telegraph. Before people start winding up to deliver blasts on "socialized medicine", when your Editor had health care through an American HMO, he was lucky to see his GP within 30 days. Rest of the time it was the urgent care doctor on duty and even then many times he'd be seen by an LPN.

0100 GMT June 16, 2011

BBC says Pakistan arrests several persons alleged to have helped the US in killing Osama Bin Laden: "Brig. Abbas said that two categories of people were among those arrested - those who threw flares into the Bin Laden compound to guide approaching US helicopters and those who helped the helicopters refuel within Pakistani territory."

So, needless to say, we are quite confused. It seems unlikely that the US employed locals to help refuel the helicopters, simply from the viewpoint of secrecy. Would make more sense for US to surreptitiously dump fuel just hours ahead of the raid and use its own personnel for refueling. Of course, this is if the helicopters were refueled on the ground. The Pakistanis say they have evidence of this and have identified a place north of Abbotabad on the banks of the Indus River. US does, however, have an excellent helicopter-to-helicopter refueling capability for its special operations forces.

We're also wondering why the US needed people so close to OBL's hiding place that they could throw flares to guide approaching US helicopters. The attacking team had the capability to pinpoint its target areas in complete darkness.

BBC's correspondent reports that "the Pakistani authorities appear to be making every effort to unearth CIA informants while showing little interest in arresting Taliban and al-Qaeda sympathizers.

Imagine that.

Libya rebels are preparing to advance on Ziltan west of Misurata and perhaps further, as NATO clears the way by bombing. In the southwest, rebels are preparing to advance on Dahiba, which lies on the way to Tripoli. Loyalists are shelling approaches to the town, presumably to stop the rebels. Presumably Dahiba will be bombed by NATO very soon.

UK's Prince Harry to return to Afghanistan with an AH-64 Apache attack helicopter squadron. His training is complete this summer. His previous tour of Helmand was cut short as the press revealed his location. If we recall right, he was with a reconnaissance cavalry unit at that time. He has been agitating to return to combat.

Meanwhile, the future King of England and his new wife apparently do not have help at their home near William's military base, and will do without help at their London residence. We might point the British royals are quite wealthy in their own right - they get generous stipends in return for having handed over Crown estates etc to the Government. So they can quite easily afford help.

US stocks expected to tumble further as the possibility of a Greek default rises (the country now has a CCC bond rating, which someone tells us is as low as you can get this side of solvency) and as the US economy slows.

We hope you didn't put away the shovel you've been using to dig your bunker. if you are, bring it out again and get back to work.

Score one for the GOP Thirty-four of 47 GOP senators voted to end the ethanol subsidy despite dire threats by Grover Muppet Norquist. The measure failed because an insufficient number of Democrats sided with the GP. So you have this spectacle of the GOP wanting to end subsidies for big business, whereas the Democrats want to keep them. Welcome to the American Political Wonderland.

Yesterday's Washington Post quoted Grover Muppet as having given instructions to the aides of a 100 House GOP members that they were to oppose an end to the ethanol subsidy unless they voted to lower the Estate Tax by a similar amount.

Again, welcome to the American Political Wonderland. Grover Muppet has not been elected to any office, but he deems it his place to "instruct" members of Congress how to vote. King Grover summons, the vassals rush to hear him speak.

We know that Congress is sold out to vested interests, but its quite amazing that the mainstream media quite openly talks about an agent of vested interests who so openly orders Congresspeople around.

In India the majority of parliamentarians take money left and right from anyone willing to give it, but at least the Indians don't go on and on boring everyone with proclamations of being the world's greatest democracy and so on. We Indians are corrupt to the core, but we confess our failings to anyone who asks.

Are the American people willing to confess that their Congress is also corrupt to the core?

By the way, India has very strict laws on money given to politicians (all ignored, of course). America is the only country we know of which has legalized shoveling buckets of money to politicians. So they can be corrupt without breaking the law. Welcome to the American Political Wonderland.

0100 GMT June 15, 2011

CIA-ISI Talks Fail says Times of India, resulting in the CIA chief leaving Pakistan without the customary call on the president and prime minister. We're not quite clear why anyone expected these talks to go anywhere. The newspaper says even the offer of a security guarantee failed to move Pakistan. We're wondering what this is about. Is US offering guarantees against India? This is a great idea, if the US wants to write off its hard won and well-earned 20-year improvement in relations with India. Otherwise, not so much.

The Times also says that talks with Mullah Omar continue. The Americans are offering to let Omar rule the south, a defacto partition of Afghanistan we reported some months ago that was in the works, and is going to happen whatever Omar and US plan. Omar rejected the deal, saying he wanted all of Afghanistan. A Pakistani source, speaking sensibly for a change, said that both sides realize they cannot militarily defeat the other so a political settlement is inevitable.

Another "lesbian" blogger confesses This is after attacking "Gay Girl in Damascus" for being a fake. Being simple people from Iowa, we're wondering what is the psychology of these heterosexual males that leads them to pose as lesbians. Girls made too fun of the size of their weenies in Kindergarten, perhaps? This creep also gave the standard "I needed to get people to listen to me" routine for his fakery.

Well, you know, Editor has lots to say about the situation of young black men in America. So should he pretend to be a black gay man to enhance his credibility?

One commentator from the lesbian community says these blogs are stealing their voice. And you know what? We entirely agree. For a community - any community - that feels oppressed, their voice is a critical part of their identity and their ability to cope. Stealing their voice is a horrible thing to do.

These cases are perfect examples of the famous New Yorker cartoon where one dog is at a computer keyboard and says to this other dog: "On the internet, no one knows you are a dog".

Hooray for the Terminator's girl friend When rumors began circulating about the resemblance between the Terminator and his housekeeper's son, the lady confessed to Ms. Shriver, begged for forgiveness, and asked Maria not to blame Armie, because it takes two to tango. Wow. That's integrity, and we're astonished because there is so little of it now days in America, particularly among the women who are the other half of the extra marital affair. The lady says she hopes that Arnie and Maria make up because Arnie really loves Maria. More integrity, though the cynical will say its just grandstanding, because after all, she can hardly expect Arnie to take up with her. Perhaps. But if its publicity she wants, she would get ten tons of it by saying she loves Armie and Arnie said he loved her, which is why she slept with him, and she hopes that he will not abandon her.

Hooray too for President Zuma of South Africa In case you missed it, we were whacking him upside the head with metaphorical saucepans for calling Gaffy Duck "Brother Leader" and making dumb deals which would give everything to Gaffy, nothing to the opposition.

Well, after years of pandering to Robert "The alligator" Mugabe of Zimbabwe, who has broken every deal with the opposition that Mr. Zuma and his predecessor Mr. Mbeke made to bring democracy to the country, Mr. Zuma stood up to the Old Fraud by saying he would NOT declare the situation in Zimbabwe had normalized enough for an election, which the Old Fraud was looking forward to fixing. OF yelled at Mr. Zuma, but the latter refused to relent.

Mr. Zuma has principles, after all, and is taking his job as head of the AU seriously.

On setting the record straight US cables leaked by Wikileaks say there was no 1989 massacre at Tianamen Square. The demonstrators were allowed to leave when the security forces closed in. So this backs up Chinese insistence there was no massacre at Tianamen.

Of course, there was a massacre, but it took place 3,000-meters west of the Square. Message to the ghosts of the young Chinese men and women killed in the Beijing Massacre: Yo, there, people. You weren't killed at Tianamen but 3000-meters west. Trust that makes you feel better.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8555142/Wikileaks-no-bloodshed-inside-Tiananmen-Square-cables-claim.html

0100 GMT June 14, 2011

Right on schedule following our rant yesterday comes the news that a blog run by "Gay Girl in Damascus", chronicling the revolt in that country, is run by a male, married, American who is from the state of Georgia.

Is this gentleman the least apologetic? Hardly. He says he has not harmed anyone, and the artifice gives him the chance to blog about subjects he cares about. He says people would not take seriously the views of an American male blogging on the conditions in Syria, and its important to get the news out.

So let's get this straight, He is not Syrian-American, he chooses a titillating cover-name as "Gay Girl", he is not in Syria but in Turkey with his wife, he has not witnessed any of the events he movingly blogs about, and he hasn't hurt anyone?

How about hurting the Truth, you miserable piece of slime? what about the identity theft you perpetrated, using the Facebook photo of some lady without her knowledge? How about your adding to the general air of paranoia and distrust that envelopes the media today? How about hurting the credibility of the Syrian rebels? None of this matters to you? Apparently not. When we have come to a stage in the world where people think its okay to fabricate 100% of the "news" they put out because they care about the subjects on which they are fabricating, then we are fast approaching the end of morality. No morality, no civilization.

Incidentally, this gentleman confessed only because "Gay Girl in Damascus" was reported arrested - by the gentleman - and bloggers everyone began an effort to track down the Gay Girl so they could help her. Their tracking down led to this man. He has such contempt for people that he has nothing to say about the effort scores of people, concerned for "Gay Girl's" safety, put into their search.

Berlo, our fave playboy, gets badly smacked We are very sad today. Italians held a nationwide referendum and Berlo got defeated 95-5 on four of his major initiatives. Turnout was 57% against 50% required to make the results binding.

Don't give up, Berlo! These faithless Italians have no idea what they are doing, these muttering minnow minions of miniscule morbid morality.

PS: We have no idea what the above line means but we remain loyal to Berlo.

"Canadian soldiers on patrol searched a barn in Kandahar Province today" says a story in the New York Times. What vitally important Afghanistan story may we next expect from NYT: how many sheets of toilet paper the Canadians used today?

This is the paper with the slogan "all the news that's fit to print". Taking this to a bit of an extreme, aren't we?

In case you were wondering what's happening in Lebanon " After a five-month deadlock that sowed uncertainty in politically fragile Lebanon the country's prime minister on Monday further inflamed passions by announcing a new government heavily dominated by the Iranian- and Syrian-backed Shiite Muslim militia Hezbollah and its allies." Los Angeles Times, web edition, June 14, 2011. http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-lebanon-cabinet-20110614,0,814134.story

Meanwhile, King of Jordan announces he has appointed a new Prime Minister tasked to carry out genuine political reform. Islamists have rejected the appointment as more of the same. While Jordan is described as a constitutional monarchy, the King appoints all 60 members of the upper house, the Senate, and no law passed by parliament can take effect without the King's assent. The country has been struck by the same turmoil now spreading through the Mideast.

US Navy intercepts DPRK ship off China on suspicion the vessel was carrying missiles/technology to Burma. USS Campbell, an Aegis missile destroyer, asked the vessel for permission to board. The vessel refused, and turned back for DPRK under surveillence.

0100 GMT June 13, 2011

The Washington Post: A shill for vested interests?

The day before yesterday we wrote about a move to limit the amount of mortgage debt people can take on, and to require larger down payments. We gave the opposition to this idea as an example of how corporations expect Americans to keep taking out more and more debt so that they can make more money. Earlier we had said there is something wrong with an economic system that requires greater and greater indebtedness for its growth. Indeed, some say there was no real growth in the first decades of the 21st Century; it what we saw was a false prosperity created by artificially higher and higher house prices, with people taking loans against the ever increasing value of their houses to spend on consumer items. When the debt became unbearable, rising almost 20% additional of GDP in ten years, everything collapsed.

Now a reader sends us an article that says the Washington Post story is completely wrong. The government is not telling anyone how much they can lend or telling any consumer how much they can borrow. All the government is saying is: if you, the bank, are going to create derivatives from bundling mortgages, we want you to hold on to 5% of those mortgages. This leaves you free to collateralize 95%. Why 5%? Because it forces lenders to put skin in their game, and since they will lose money if those derivatives are useless, they will collateralize debt more carefully. The lenders, however, are free to collateralize 100% of the their mortgages if they follow the bit about 20% down and X percentage of total debt for a consumer and so on.

Seeing as the government has to pick up the mess when the banks get into trouble, the government has every right to demand the banks act responsibly. When you look at it that way, asking the banks to hold only 5% of their dicey mortgages seems, to us at least, a complete capitulation to the banks. why should it be only 5%? If they're making heavy profits on the 95%, the banks are not going to care if they lose 5%.

But apparently the banking vested interests don't want to act responsibly even for 5% of their mortgages.

Now, why do we have to learn from another media source that the Washington Post story completely misrepresented the situation? The banks are still free to make any kind of loan they want, zero down, 5% down, whatever they want. All the government is asking they not collateralize 5% of those loans. You would never guess that from the WashPo article (June 10, 2011, page A12, "Home buyers' debt, feeling heavier" by Dina ElBoghdady).

It is one thing in your editorial to take a one-sided stand. For example, you can always rely on WashPo to bash teacher's unions. That's fine because a newspaper is entitled to its own editorial positions. It is another thing to so misrepresent the facts of a story that the reader comes up with a completely different idea thqan the reality about that story.

The Washington Post is allegedly one of the top 20 newspapers in the world. People particularly rely on it for news about the federal government. We, at least, find it worrying in the extreme that WashPo is running articles as such as the one on June 10.

Now, readers will call us naive. Well, we have been saying for a while now that the purpose of the government and the elite, which includes media, is to help the corporations make money. We have know since at least 1960 that America's so-called "free" press is not free. You are entirely free to start your own media: at $1-billion minimum for a major newspaper, Editor doesn't think 99.9999% of Americans will be starting their own newspaper soon if they don't like what's in the other media. One always knew that the American media put a slant on the news - as did Government owned media, which back in the day meant most of the world. But at least you knew what you read in the Government-controlled press was propaganda to a greater or lesser degree. You put no credibility on Government media.

But we don't recall a major American newspaper, writing about America, would write a news article about a technical change in proposed lending rules that gave no hint whatsoever of the real purpose of that change. American mainstream media is under constant attack nowadays because it is perceived as biased. People don't want to read the newspaper or get their news from broadcast networks because of the credibility gap. Now WashPo, instead of doing something about the gap, is adding to it in a blatant bow to corporate interests.

If MSM cannot at least give us the facts, we enter a dangerous world where people will reply on other media. And Editor personally knows what happens then: take a look at the websites out there that purport to give the truth that no one dares to give. People will rely on sources of even less credibility.

"Wall Street's latest manufactured outrage"

http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2011/06/wall-street-latest-manufactured-outrage

We are quite aware that Mother Jones is a left-wing publication, having read it off and on for years. But if one is going to read only the media with which one agrees, one can't claim to be an analyst. That's why even though we at Prbat.com hate IRNA, Pravda, ITAR-TASS, Xinhua and the like, Editor regularly consults these sources. If Mother Jones has misstated the facts of what the new rules propose, by all means object. By the way, Chevvy Chase is one of the most expensive real estate localities in the Washington Metro area. So even the single person WashPo cites is hardly a typical American homebuyer.

The Fed and other regulators have proposed a set of rules that would put new limits on home mortgages: Borrowers would have to put 20 percent down and would have to show that their mortgage payments would amount to no more than 28 percent of their gross monthly income. The Washington Post makes this sound like doomsday:

Nearly three out of every five U.S. borrowers who bought homes last year would not have met the proposed restriction on total debt, according to an analysis by mortgage research firm CoreLogic....If the rules were in effect now, Todd Pearson of Ashburn predicts he'd be shut out of the market. Pearson wants to sell his house and buy another in Chevy Chase. He says he has no debts other than his mortgage. But he figures his mortgage payment alone would exceed the threshold proposed by the new rules.

You have to admit, these rules do sound pretty tough. In fact, they'd pretty much shut down the entire mortgage industry. So what's going on?

Answer: Lots of financial industry whining. As it turns out, regulators aren't saying that mortgage originators can't make any kind of loan they want. 20 percent down, 10 percent down, 5 percent down, whatever. Go to town. What they are saying is that if mortgage loans are bundled up into securities and resold, they want the issuer of the security to retain 5 percent of the total offering. That's part of Dodd-Frank, and it's designed to give issuers an incentive to make sure their mortgage securities aren't full of toxic waste. If they have to keep a piece of the action on their own books, they'll want to make sure their securities are safe and sound.

However, there's an exception: If your mortgages all conform to the new rules, you don't have to retain that 5 percent chunk. That's all that's happening. You can make any kind of loan you want, but if it's anything other than super safe, you have to keep a piece of it on your books.

The financial industry is in an uproar over this, claiming that it would shut millions of people out of the housing market. That's nonsense. Neither Todd Pearson nor anyone else is being denied a loan on whatever terms they can get one. All that's happening is that when their mortgages get bundled up and resold, the ABS issuer has to keep a 5 percent stake. The mortgage industry is on a rampage over this, claiming that it will dramatically raise the cost of mortgages, but that's nonsense too. Being forced to keep a 5 percent stake probably will have an impact on ABS issuers—that's the whole intent, after all—but the financial impact is almost certainly pretty minuscule. Tom Lawler at Calculated Risk roughly estimates it at perhaps 20 basis points at most on a nonconforming loan. In other words, the rate on nonconforming mortgages might go up 0.2 percentage points. At most. Something on the order of 0.1 percentage points or less is probably closer to reality.

This is yet another case of the financial industry biting the hand that's trying to help it out. The truth is that it would probably be a good idea to require ABS issuers to retain a 5 percent stake in every mortgage bundle they sell. But Dodd-Frank threw them a bone in the form of an exemption for loans that were transparently high quality and virtually certain not to default. And the result? Endless whining, a massive lobbying effort, and glossy four-color demagoguery about hardworking middle-class families being shut out of the mortgage market. Welcome to Wall Street.

0100 GMT June 12, 2011

Libya UK Telegraph sort of explains what is happening in Libya. Rebel columns have moved from the western mountains enroute to Tripoli, advancing in a line SW to NE. They have taken several towns and are closing up on Tripoli. where the rebel spearheads are we cannot say. Meanwhile, rebels have attacked Zawiya, west of Tripoli; this is a town they lost in the Gaddaffi counteroffensive following rebels gains subsequent to the revolt.

So Tripoli is threatened now from the south and the west. The rebels move to push west from Misurata is stalled, about 30-km west of the city. Armed tribesmen loyal to Gaddaffi from south of Misurata have attacked and thrown the rebels off stride.

We don't think the loyalist tribesmen will be able to withstand air attack any better than have the loyalist regulars. This is no reflection on anyone's bravery, it's what happens when you have no way of fighting back against aircraft. Western surveillance renders the battlefield transparent even at night, and targets can be attacked at long ranges without earning. After your columns get strafed and bombed a few times, its kind of natural to lose interest in the proceedings and want to go home.

Expectations are rising that the Great Gaddaffi Stalemate is about to be broken. We suggest "hope for the best, plan for the worst." The Old Duck has proved pretty resilient so far, though admittedly he is in trouble. This is shown by his calling in loyalist tribes. If he had a functioning army, he wouldn't need to have a bunch of desert tribesmen who traditional show more enthusiasm than discipline - much as was the case till recently for the rebels. His chief advantage was his armor, artillery, and heavy weapons. These are all severely attrited and cannot be openly deployed any more.

So: expect a breaking point soon, or an inflexion point if you are into math, but don't expect things to be over before the fall.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinations/africaandindianocean/libya/8570258/Rebel-gains-spark-fierce-battle-for-west-of-Libya-as-Gaddafi-regime-under-pressure-from-all-sides.html

Please ignore this story US officials are shocked, shocked that after they gave Pakistan intelligence on two terrorist hideouts, Pakistan security forces found both sites empty. US is going through it's "Oh those dastardly Pakistanis" song-and-dance all over again. Frankly on this subject the Americans have become Big Bores.

It is not the Pakistanis who need to be blamed. It is the Americans who despite 10 years of sustained evidence to the contrary think they can for4ce the Pakistanis to become reliable partners in fighting Taliban and AQ operating in Afghanistan.

Every single American official who came up with the idea of giving the Pakistanis yet another chance on the Afghanistan terrorist/insurgent issue needs to be relieved of their duties and sent to St. Elizabeth's, the Washington DC Looney Bin for People With No Hope. American officials are suffering from a complete inability to face reality on the simple matter that Pakistan and US interests on Afghanistan are irreconcilably divergent, and that the US has no power to get Pakistan to abandon its interests in support of US interests.

BTW, if you think this 100% dysfunctional relationship the US had with the Pakistanis is something modern, read a book by Robert J. McMahon The Cold War in the Periphery You will learn Pakistan has been jerking the US around since 1947, when Pakistan was created. McMahon's book covers only to 1965, because when he wrote the book in 1993, US diplomatic papers only to 1963 had been declassified. At all time the US was perfectly aware the Pakistanis were taking them for a ride, but thee Americans saw no way out of their alliance with Pakistan.

You will conclude that Americans are idiots, and the Pakistanis past masters at getting what they want from the US while giving nothing in return. That was as true 65, 55, 45 and 35 years ago as it is today. It is probably fair to say no country in the history of the US has, in relation to the aid given, provided the US so little in return.

The Americans knew this in 1947-1965, when the finally bailed on the relationship, but just as abused people keep returning to their abusive partner, the US tried to return in 1970 and 1976, then did return in 1980. Then it bailed out again in 1990. Only to return again in 2001. And here it is, 2011, and the Pakistanis are still abusing the Americans every single day.

On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being top marks for getting your way and 1 for not getting your way at all, the Pakistanis have to be given 10 and the US 1. We have no explanation other than racism. The Americans see all these kowtowing brown faces tugging forelocks, and the Americans can't imagine they are being taken for a total ride by the brown faces.

One day if someone gives Editor a grant he will write a book on the subject. Right now he is rewriting a first draft he put together in 2005 of how US and Soviet Union collaborated to deprive India of its 1971 victory, using 1970-71 declassified State Department cables available as of 2005.

Still, the Americans can feel superior to one country in this race to be crowned as I Am The Biggest, Fattest, Idiot of Them All. That is India. You'll see why we say this when the book is done, and it will be available to Orbat.com readers free of charge till an Indian publisher picks it up. (Or any publisher - Editor is not proud.)

0100 GMT June 11, 2011

Mortgages Yesterday we mentioned there is something wrong with an economy that depends for its growth on individuals taking out debt and more debt. Today we read in the Washington Post that to prevent future housing crises, government is thinking of requiring a 20% down payment (a la Canada) and setting a total debt limit of 36% of a person's income to qualify for a mortgage. Various people are not going for this. Why? Because under this formulation of total 36% debt (including auto, school debt etc), three of five people would not qualify to buy a house. We agree the formulation is imperfect because it is a generalization. There are people who will not default on a mortgage even if they have to pay 40% or 50% of their income. But the figure has not been pulled out of the air, it is based on the experiences of tens of millions of homeowners.

And there is nothing unreasonable about the 20% down. If we recall right, that's what was required in the 1950s and early 1960s. Opponents say so many people will not be able to buy a house. Exactly. The idea is to prevent people from buying, or buying bigger houses, than they can afford.

Now, you can have objections to the government's social engineering, and you can wonder why the government should be in the business of setting maximum debt limits. We agree. But as long as Freddie and Fannie guarantee loans, the government has a right to lay down standards. Best to do away with Fannie and Freddie, and let the business of home loans be placed on a strict commercial business. If lenders are foolish enough to lend money to unqualified people, why should the taxpayer guarantee their losses?

This is yet another example of what we meant when we said yesterday the government functions to help the corporate sector, not you or me.

Bonds and Haircuts Germany has gone heretical. (Come to think of it, wasn't Germany the home of Martin Luther, the greatest heretic in the history of the Church?). Germany says there is no way that Greece can pay back the money it borrowed, and that bondholders are going to have to take a loss the same as everyone else.

The European Bank is aghast. It says if bondholders are not made whole, credit will be affected. This same argument was made for the big bailouts of 2008-2009. It is a very simple capitalist principle that a person who lends money must accept the risk the money is not repaid in part or in full. It is not the business of governments, in a capitalist system, to force the taxpayers to pay so that the lenders are made whole.

Once again we see the use by monied interests to pervert the function of government which is create an environment where capitalism can do its thing, and to stand aside.

Dear Grover Norquist Till the other day we had no idea who you really were. We thought you were a character on Sesame Street, you know, the loveable purple Muppet who hangs around with Oscar the Grouch at the Dustbin Disco. Don't feel bad about this, because Editor is sure you didn't know who he is, and for your peace of mind, we suggest that you remain in a state of blissful ignorance. You seem to hang around with a pretty crazy crowd off Sesame Street, you don't need to know more crazies.

We now find that you have indeed done something magical, which is to get 41 Republican Senators to sign a no-tax-increase pledge. (The magical part is finding 41 Senators who can actually write their names, even if it is in capitals.) Fair enough, it's a free country. We were prepared, even, to give you an approving cuddle and hug, because frankly, we still think you are an adorable Muppet because no one claiming to be a lover of freedom can insist on the second part of your agenda.

The second part of your agenda is definitely fascist. You apparently think that tax breaks and subsidies given by the government should not be eliminated, because this is akin to raising taxes.

But, Grover, dear buddy and fellow Muppet (we're still trying to keep the warm huggy-poo feeling going), when government teams up with the corporations to give them special breaks, its that government engineering thing all over again. You are support massive intervention in our lives by requiring the government to decide which fads, fancies, and special interests it will support. As a right thinking Muppet - sorry, we meant human American citizen - this thinking you should reject. What you espouse is anti-capitalist, and we truly apologize if we hurt your feelings, but if you are anti-capitalist, you are not a red-blooded American. Please don't fire back neither is the Editor a red-blooded American. We have never denied (a) Editor is not a citizen; and (b) he is not even an Earthling.

To repeat: if you are a conservative American, your objective for government should be to create the environment for capitalism to do its thing, and to get out of the way. By standing up for subsidies, you are using the power of the government to reduce competition. So, this is a free country and you are free to espouse any philosophy you want. But you are not entitled to lie to the people. By all means call yourself a Marxist, because Marxists believe in social and economic engineering of every sort.

Now, Grover, you cuddly thing you, we are prepared to admit you have many advantages over the Editor. You are well off, he is not. You are young and personable, he is neither. You have a date every Saturday, he hasn't had a date since FDR was in his second term. (FYI Grover and readers: today is Saturday and Editor does not have a date.) You are eloquent and learned, Editor is neither. And - this beggers the imagination - you apparently know the names of 41 Senators! Aside from Hilary Clinton, Editor cannot name any sitting Senator.

We want you to use your advantages to do the right thing, which is get the government off our backs. That means the government does not get to decide it will subsidize A but not B. You are giving power to the money classes, those who can pay more to get their tax break passed. Now, we - unlike you - are no experts on the US Constitution. But we doubt that august document anywhere says that government has the right to decide which monied interest the taxpayer's money should be given to.

So be a good fellow now. Love and XXX, your BFF from Sesame Street. or at least from your BFF Sesame Street wannabe. Yet another advantage you have over the Editor. You ARE on Sesame Street. Editor can only hope one day he will too.

0100 GMT June 10, 2011

Economic stagnation to continue for six years Editor for one has been telling anyone who will listen that the US economy is years away from recovery. His estimate is based on dozens of hints that behind the rosy facade presented by the government of an imminent recovery there is a slew of bad news.

Now CNN Money http://money.cnn.com/2011/06/08/news/economy/economy_debt_unemployment/ says that "Many experts say private debt owed by households, as well as businesses, is an even bigger problem than the government debt that's getting so much attention lately. And it won't be solved without a difficult stretch of high unemployment and slow growth that will likely last for six or seven more years, producing America's own version of Japan's "Lost Decade."

In other words, until the high consumer debt is unwound, we ain't going nowhere because we, the consumers, don't have money to spend, and we can't borrow because we already owe more than we can pay. The article makes clear that people are trying their darn best to pay down their debt. Consumer debt alone has come down from a peak 98% of GDP reached in 2007 to 92%. But: here's the really bad news: in 1999 consumer debt was 70%. So on consumer debt alone, we have to pay back $3-trillion to reduce to the 1999 level.

Well, we can't pay it off if we don't have jobs. And since we can't spend, because the US economy is based on consumer credit, companies - which are in great shape after Government bailouts - wont produce, which means they wont hire. A Worm Ouroboros situation if there ever was one.

Editor's advice to whoever will listen: don't just "cut back" on your spending. Cut back on everything you dont require for survival. And no, Starbucks, cable TV, and IPhones are not needed for survival. In any case we are proposing personal spending cuts that go well beyond those luxury items. Save the money against the time you may become unemployed. And pay down your debt. It's an extraordinarily painful process, but you have to do it and you have to ignore temporary upturns.

Yes, you will be very unpatriotic by refusing to spend. But consider this: any economic system that requires for its prosperity ordinary folks to spend more and more on stuff they finance with credit is fundamentally flawed. True patriotism requires this country return to fiscal health. You can't do a thing about the government, and don't believe this rot about you have a vote. Your vote is nullified by vested interests. You are powerless to do anything except to put your own house in order. Depend on yourself, not on the government, and for sure not on the monied elite and its running dogs which include Congress and the big media.

Sure, you can also revolt, but remember we are all brainwashed to a greater or lesser degree against the idea of a revolt. Wasn't the government that brainwashed us. It was the money people, who use government as their instrument to make more money. Government is simply their instrument to confiscate wealth from the average Jane and Jack and send it to those who already have more of it than they know what do with. And by the way, money does not care if you a Democrat or a Republican or a Libertarian or a Tea Partier. People with money behave in exactly the same way regardless of their politics.

Phew. Editor has outdone himself in the above rant. Even if the readers are not impressed, he is. Except he is non-white and an immigrant, he thinks he is right there with the Founders of the Nation, looking over their shoulders as they sign the Articles of Confederation and all that. May be he is a secret social anarchist (an Italian political philosophy that says that government and any big organization are innately bad and should be restricted to performing the very minimum functions needed to sustain life).

Wait a minute: isn't that what Libertarians are saying? Could the Libertarians of the New World actually be espousing the same beliefs as the social anarchists of the Old World?

Much too complicated. Time to return to international politics. Much simpler.

Syria Reuters quotes Turkey as saying 1800 Syrians have fled into Turkey to escape a pending army crackdown on Jisr al-Shughou. This border town has been in the news because Syrian Government says "armed gangs" killed 120 security forces. It appears the security forces died both in internecine fighting between security units and in executions of security force defectors. 15,000 troops have surrounded the town of 50,000 and an offensive is expected any moment. Reader Luxembourg sends a link saying the troops are from the 4th Division, said to be the most loyal army unit. If so, it would appear this division has been busy as beavers, as they seem to be deployed whenever a mass repression is required.

Other reports say hundreds of soldiers have deserted and crossed to Turkey. It is impossible to verify any of this as there are no journalists to report the news, and Turkey is refusing to let refugees be interviewed.

Meanwhile, ever-helpful Russia threatens to veto a proposed UN resolution condemning Syria for the violence, and the west again repeats its mantra that given the sixe of Syrian forces, intervention is out of the question.

Libya Countries holding frozen Libyan Government money are to give $1.1-billion in immediate assistance to the rebel government. US is hopeful that it will soon sort out the legalities of releasing frozen money to the rebels.

Meanwhile, a tanker unloaded 1.2-million barrels of Libyan oil at Hawaii, the first such shipment since the trouble started. China and Qatar are other states that have been taking rebel oil. In calculating how much the rebels make from such sales, please to remember that much of the money will have to be spent to repair damaged oil production infrastructure, and the rebel government needs money to pay salaries and other expenses.

0100 GMT June 9, 2011

Looks like we inadvertently fell back one day: yesterday's update should have been headed June 8, 2011

Libya NATO threatens to turn its might against rebels who harm civilians. We are not making this up. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8564079/Libya-rebels-warned-that-Nato-will-use-force-to-stop-revenge-attacks.html . The rebels have executed some loyalists taken prisoner, as opposed to hundreds and perhaps of thousands of executions by loyalists of rebels. Also 300+ loyalists are being held without trial. NATO says its mandate is to protect civilians, no matter who harms them.

Gawblimey, not what?

Meanwhile, a big rebel plan to break out of Misurata to the south, west, and east, has failed. Loyalist forces defeated the rebel offensive. Back to the drawing boards for the rebels. No use sugar-coating this: its a big, big failure. We thought the rebels and their Eurotrainers would hold off till the fall. It takes time to train soldiers, people.

Somalia Christian Science Monitor says the African Union force is making progress against Al Shabaab. But Burundi troops have not been paid for several months, though the AU has deposited their pay with the Burundi Government.

Meanwhile, Uganda is threatening to withdraw its troops unless the UN extends the Transitional Federal Government's by one year. The mandate is to expire in 2-months when Parliamentary elections are to be held. Uganda says it fears the elections are premature and dissolving the TFG could lead to a step-up of attacks on the AU contingent by Islamic forces. Somalia's parliament wants elections held on time; the President wants a year's delay.

Why are people calling a Palin-Bachmann contest for 2012 nomination a "cat fight"? Every time Editor reads a letter to the editor from a feminist saying: "Would you have made that comment if a man was involved?" Editor groans and clutches his stomach. Not again, and that sort of thing.

Today, however, Editor is acting like one of those feminists. Perish the thought either lady should win the nomination - unless you are an Obama fan and want him to win. Nonetheless, when two male candidates contend, do we call it a "dog fight"? Come on, people, lets show some respect here.

And isn't there such a thing as a male cat?

One of the dumbest stances feminists take is to protest when a newspaper mentions the clothes a woman person-in-the-news is wearing. "Would you mention a man's clothes?" they ask indignantly.

Wrong fight, people. It is well known no one could care less what a man is wearing. Women care deeply what a woman is wearing. So focusing on a woman's clothes is not sexist. Its just catering to the women readers.

Do men care what a woman is wearing? Obviously not, people. No man cares what a woman is wearing, except for the operating principle of less is better. Perhaps some men care what other men are wearing. 99% do not. Do women care what men are wearing to the point they want a detailed dress inventory? Doubtful. Talking about what the man was wearing is a non-starter. Sorry about that.

Letter from reader Flymike Regarding your figures on the percentage of federal workers compared to the general population: You can well appreciate that even though it may not be a worker on the pay roll the contractors have exploded. Then you must add to that the people at are dependant upon the govt etc etc etc. THEN we add to that the state and local. As a citizen I look at the assessment you took from whatever source and have to believe it was done by a communist. It's a joke. No?? I don't even bat an eye knowing the accuracy is nonexistent.

Snacks. Welcome to communism comrade Ravi.

Editor's response The figures we gave have been repeated fairly regularly the last few months. We couldn't find the specific article from which we took the figures yesterday, but here are two sources: http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxfacts/displayafact.cfm?Docid=205

and http://blogs.govexec.com/fedblog/2010/09/the_true_size_of_the_federal_w.php

We don't think these are communist sites.

Re snacks and communists. Now, now, we have to be fair. The communists were not nanny staters. Their ideology was restricted to monopolizing power and resources under the rubric of acting for "the people". As long as you did not engage in unapproved political activity, and as long as you didn't object to the top people seizing and spending resources as they wanted, the communists did not tell you how to live. In some aspects, such as gender equity, they were ahead of America. Nanny staters are worse than communists because the former do want to dictate how we live.

0100 GMT June 7, 2011

So the country is in trouble, what is Congress doing? Congress is deeply concerned about a member of its august fraternity/sorority who posted pictures of his briefs (with him in the briefs). The guilty party is a Democrat, so the leader of the House Democrats, Ms. Nancy Pelosi, wants a Congressional inquiry. Others, Republican and Democrat want him to resign. On what grounds? Because when first confronted about the pictures, the gentlemen, who got married last year, the gentlemen denied posting the picture. So, you see, he lied.
If telling a lie about a personal matter is grounds for inquires and resignations? Unless there is some Congressperson who says s/he has never lied while in office. In which case, it would be unfair to call for their resignation. The correct remedy is to send for the men in white coats, and entrust custody of these persons to a maximum security psychiatric facility. Why this harsh treatment? Because if anyone can say they have never lied while campaigning or in office, they are so seriously delusional there is no hope for them.
Yemen US diplomatic sources say that the President, now under treatment at a Saudi military hospital, is burned over 40% of his body, has a collapsed lung, and has shrapnel wounds, one as deep as 7-centimeters. Modern military wounded care being what it is, there is no reason this gentleman will not recover, albeit it seems to us with 40% burns the recovery period will be months and could be longer.
So we don't quite see how he is to return in a few days, as his supporters say.
Meanwhile, 400 tribesmen have seized control of the country's largest city, Taiz.
Libya NATO carried out its largest raid on Tripoli. A government official says that the president is resident in a bunker designed to sustain hits from N-weapons, so he is least bothered by the bombing raids.
Fair enough, except that's what conventional earth penetrators are for. These go 20-meters deep, and you can send in a second after the dust has cleared to allow precision targeting, for greater depth. Does NATO excluding the US have them? We have no idea. To us the western claim that the good Colonel is hiding in civilian hospitals makes more sense.
Fukushima Daichhi It now turns out the three reactors at the site suffered core meltdowns. That's as serious an accident as you can get bar a break in the containment structure. So: as far as we know 2 or 3 workers died in the accident and subsequently. Makes a pretty good case, we think, that reactors are safe - even ones built 40-years ago when safety was not considered as important as it is today.
Two facts for the debate on tax levels and federal workforce Federal taxes as a percent of GDP are at a sixty year low. The federal employees as a percentage of the population is at a 40% low. This is not going to convince anyone who wants lower taxes and smaller government, but its worth noting. There may well be reasons for even lower taxes and smaller government, but "out of control" spending and bureaucracy are not among them. Please to note, BTW, the US is the third most populous control in the world, 310-million people.
Reader Flymike on Social Security Our reader has sent a photograph of the waiting room at the Austin, Texas Social Security office with the challenge to find one retired looking person in the waiting room. True enough, there seem to be lots of young people and few, if any, old people among the 40-odd . Though we hesitate to go by looks alone, it would seem Flymike has a point.
We leave it to others better informed than Editor to say why so many younger people are at the office. In the two visits Editor made to the Silver Spring, Maryland Social Security office, He did notice a lot of people seemed to be visiting for their new (immigrants) or replacement social security cards.
If it helps, http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat_snapshot/ provides the following stats: In April 2011 60-million people received benefits, which is about one in 5 residents. of these, 38-million were 65+. Six million received survivors insurance. Ten million were on disability. eight million received SSI benefits.

0100 GMT June 6, 2011

Syria The government says 120 security forces have been killed by armed gangs in the town of Jisr al-Shughour, due north of Damascus, near the Turkey border.
Since the protestors have no weapons, and continue to get massacred as has been the case since the uprising began, the betting is that Syrian security forces have mutinied against the government, and they have killed loyalist personnel.
Syrian Government said the people were "pleasing" for army intervention, according to a New York Times report.
Economic Impasse We are told that businesses are not hiring because consumers are not spending, and consumers are not spending because businesses are not hiring. And the economy is in trouble again.
Spanish authorities stop sale of former Israeli helicopters to Iran A peculiar plot. Nine Bell 212s declared surplus by the Israeli military were bought by businessmen who then attempted to send them to Iran before Spanish authorities found and stopped the sale.
Jerusalem Post says 77% of Israelis oppose returning to 1967 borders. We're a bit surprised the percentage is so low.
Scientists trap anti-hydrogen for 15-minutes The previous record was for 0.2 seconds, so the new record is 4500 times longer, or three orders of magnitude. This is important stuff because any exploration beyond the solar system is going to require anti-matter engines. we could travel to the nearest stars using nuclear-driven engines, but given the people's antipathy to N-power, that is likely a no-go.
BTW, in case you're wondering what happened to fusion power, the long-delayed National Ignition Facility is operational. In its first tests it did not reach the required level to ignite fusion - nor was it expected to. The Livermore National Laboratory, which is responsible for the NIF, says two more years are required for ignition. After that it will take 10-years for a prototype plant. The problem is, as the wags say, no matter what year it is, prototype fusion power plants remain 10 years away. Bit like light speed: you can approach it, but never reach it.
The Government and the Editor The Editor's interaction with the Government, local, state, and federal, are positive, and in the last 21 years he has been back, he has had only one occasion to complain about poor service.
But today Editor was within a whisker of becoming a Libertarian. He would have become one because he was in such a rage, but there was no Libertarian office within sight, for he was in Montgomery County, Maryland. Montgomery County is rich and liberal, and we all get along fine, except for those who earn less than $10/hour at jobs in the county, because you cannot find any housing, not even a cardboard shack, if that's what you earn.
Anyway. Editor was doing his daily sub thing at a high school. He saw a snack machine. Editor generally has enough control he does not easily give up a dollar, and particularly not to a snack machine. After all, Editor remembers the days when a dollar meant something. It was an hour's wage for unskilled work, and it bought a cheeseburger, small salad, and a chocolate frappe - with 15-cents left over.
Then Editor saw the snack machine had Kit Kat chocolate, which is his second-most favorite chocolate. So he put in a dollar and got a message: "No vending till 2:10 PM". Okay, fair enough, the school doesn't want the kids buying snacks, bringing them to class, messing up the floor and so on.
So a student came by, put in his money, and got a snack. Two more followed. Editor tried again: No vending till 2:10 PM:. Three more students came by. Watching what they were buying, the horrible truth hit the Editor. They were buying SALT snacks. The machine was vending salt snacks at 9 AM, but to get a SUGAR snack Editor had to wait till last bell, 2:10.
So some bureaucrat, at some level, has decided that its okay students get high-salt snacks, but sugar snacks during school are a no-no.
Had that bureaucrat walked by as Editor was exploding, volcano-like, the gentleman would have been surprised at how wide he could open his mouth, because Editor would have rammed the entire snack machine down his throat. As readers may know, people who have totally flipped can muster super-strength for very short periods. Editor does not let ANYONE stand between him and his chocolate; other than chocolate, he is not the least violent.
So, some reader will surely ask, what if the bureaucrat had been a woman? These days you are more likely to encounter women bureaucrats than men.
Simple. Editor would simply have said: "Madam, you have fat thighs. I could hear you coming at 100-meters."

0100 GMT June 5, 2011

Yemen's Saleh leaves country for Saudi Arabia ostensibly for treatment for injuries sustained in a rocket attack. The conventional wisdom is that he is out for good, but AFP reports a Saudi official as saying he has been successfully treated and will return in two weeks. Which doesn't explain why most of his family went with him. Nonetheless, even if he does not return, one son has remained as has the government. So it's likely that fighting will continue.
Terrorist Ilyas Kashmiri had just shifted to his new town of residence, and settled down for a cup of tea, when the US got him 30 minutes after his arrival. Naturally some will claim the Pakistanis shopped him, and that his killing marks a rapprochement between the US and Pakistan after OBL. Its logical for the Pakistanis to want to get rid of him, since like a mad dog he had turned on his master. At the same time, US has quite thoroughly seeded the tribal areas with informants working for reward money, so it's not neccessary to postulate a Pakistani hand.
So far neither Jang, Dawn, or The Nation, all major English dailies of Pakistan have claimed a Pakistan hand in his elimination.
BTW, if anyone thinks the US is futzing around on talks with the Taliban, media now says US wants direct talks with Mullah Omar. Will we be breaking some vast, silent conspiracy and hasten the end of the world if we ask a simple question: If US wants direct talks with Mullah Omar, why the $#@!&*%$#@ did the US not ask for talks BEFORE taking over Afghanistan? Is there some law that we don't know about which says the US has to fight for ten years before sitting down to talks? In Vietnam's case Ho Chi Minh ASKED for talks to get the French out of Indochina, the man had so much faith in America's commitment to anti-imperialism. Poor deluded man. And then what about Korea? The best we could do in 3+ years of the most miserable fighting was to sit down and talk to the Chinese about restoring the status quo ante? And the best we can do after $1-trillion and 8 years in Iraq is strengthen our enemy Iran?
Why is it the men - and now women - who get us into these Grade A mess-ups are never held to account? How can they even sleep well, leave alone wash their hands and go on to the next fiasco?
And where is the outrage among the American people? Are we a nation of sheep?
Darn. Did it again. Herds of sheep swarming the Editor's front door demanding an apologies for saying Americans are as intelligent as sheep. The signs are saying: "Compared to the smartest American, the stupidest sheep has a 180 IQ" and "Say sorry or we poop up your driveway." This political correctness thing has gone too far.
This news had us breaking into a cold sweat The first foreign geisha allowed to work in Japan in 400 years has been fired. To quote the UK Telegraph: "Ms Graham, who took the name "Sayuki" (transparent happiness) after making her debut as a geisha in 2007, was accused of refusing to follow its customs, failing to attend obligatory classes in music and dance, and spending too much time on self-promotion. Worst of all, insiders claim, in a world that is built on traditions and adherence to conventions, she refused to show respect to her elders." Among her no-no actions was refused to practice the flute properly, as she claimed she already knew how to play.
This young lady is Australian, went to Oxford, and is 47-years old. So obviously a book deal is in the works.
Nonetheless, Editor cringes on the bad rap this lady has brought to westerners after the Japanese made a four-century exception for her. as it is the Japanese think Westerners are barbarians, this will confirm their worst prejudices.
We don't think we need to remind readers that geisha's are not - er - ladies of easy virtue, but highly educated and trained women who help men relax.
What do readers think of the Editor applying to become the first male foreign geisha in Japan? He is highly educated and skilled in the arts of getting ladies to relax.
Is the US a serious country? The US is rapidly sliding into the has-been category of nations. Among other issues, 16% of the work force is jobless, and another solid percentage is making just enough to survive - badly.
So one would think America is busy questioning what has gone wrong, rolling up its sleeves, and getting down to the backbreaking work of regaining number 1 position.
Instead this is what the US is doing. a) the nation is transfixed by the story of a Congressperson who allegedly dressed up in briefs, pointed his camera downward, and posted the picture on Twitter. Additional scandal is created because one of his 55,000 followers is a 21-year college student, though frankly we don't see how that is a scandal. b) Oprah is saying The Long Goodbye, and when we say Long, we mean really, really Long. We were anticipating a rash of suicides in the wake of her "retirement", but luckily she is only retiring to her network, so that the Long Goodbye can equally be interpreted as The Long Hello. c) Women are staging "slut-walks" in various stages of dress (or not) to drive home the point to us cavemen with tiny brains that if they want to dress like sluts, they will, and that doesn't mean they're available.
Two observations. Given us men have tiny, one-track minds, how precisely do the Slut-Walkers propose to get their point across? We thought it was settled that not just do men have one-track minds regarding women, they don't even listen to what women are saying. Next, why is it when we see photographs of Oprah with her fans or in the studio, you have to look really hard to find people-of-color?

0100 GMT June 4, 2011

Ilyas Kashmiri, India's Public Enemy Number 2, Dead in US UAV Strike

India doesn't use the system of numbering its public enemies, but if it did, Ibrahim Dawood, currently a guest of the Government of Pakistan, would like be Number 1, and Ilyas Kashmiri likely Number 2. This Kashmiri person was responsible for a wide ranging series of attacks against India, including Bombay 2008. He was of interest to the US because he was a top AQ commander, a contender for the leadership post OBL, and the military brains of the terror group. A creature of the Pakistan Army and ISI, he turned against his own country, his latest being the attack on the Pakistan Navy base in Karachi. We wonder if Government of India at least send a Hallmark "Thank you" to the US. Doubtful. Indians are not in the habit of saying thank to anyone, leave alone the US. Might be worth noting that Mr. Kashmiri was captured in India at one stage and spent two years in jail before busting out. The Indian Army normally executes captured insurgents of Pakistani origin after interrogation; insurgents of Indian origin are rehabbed. We can only assume that he was left alive for some purpose of the Government of India. GOI could learn about securing dangerous prisoners from the US and its SuperMax jails. The problem is that the Indians are fairly easygoing even to their enemies once jailed. A SuperMax requires a culture of unrelenting brutality and a rigid framework in which the prisoner is an object, not a human being. We doubt Indians can manage this kind of singular focus, and we are not sure if this is a bad thing,

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2011/06/top_al_qaeda_leader_2.php

UK Apaches see action around Brega, flying from HMS Ocean. French attack helicopter seem also to have been active. It appears that with the help of NATO airstrike rebels forces in the Western mountain have managed to push 25-km east of Zintan.
In case you're wondering what precisely is going on in Libya and are we ever going to see an end to it, the situation is no longer a stalemate. Loyalist forces have no longer have capacity to launch serious attacks, and bit by bit the rebels are gaining ground - and more important, not losing it.
Undeniably the rebels have a long way to go. They are getting only a fraction of the help they need because UK/France don't feel they have the legal authority to provide weapons and all-out training. Besides which, as we have noted before, months are required before you can get a rag-tag militia into any sort of shape. This process is going on now.
In military operations there is always a point where the adversary suddenly collapses, sometimes for reasons that may not even be evident at that time. For example, in the closing stages of World War I, the Germans still had 8-million men under arms. But the general feeling was the war was lost for good. In theory Germany could have regrouped after the 1918 Hindenburg offensive and attacked again that fall. In practice, Germany was exhausted and the blockade and hunger were was destroying morale at home. The constant arrival of fresh American reinforcements meant that whatever victory Germany might win, would be undone by the Americans who, not having spent four years at war, were enthusiastic, magnificently supplied, and very aggressive. For this and other reasons the German will collapsed and the war ended.
No one can say when the collapse point will come for Gaffy Duck. He is not in good shape: his senior officers keep defecting, his heavy weapons suffer daily attrition, he can't launch an offensive because of NATO airpower, and his strategy of hiding men and weapons amidst civilians hasn't worked because US/NATO figured out how to get the weapons with UAVs or to prompt fighter aircraft to attack when civilians were not around the target tank or APC or rocket launcher or whatever. Now, of course, attack helicopters have joined in, adding another dimension because a helicopter with its advanced sensors can identify targets and attack immediately, without going through the lengthy process that begins when a UAV sights a target.
Further, Gaffy is under great psychological pressure. Despite denials, NATO/US are targeting him personally, and why shouldn't they. Its better a few die than many. Gaffy has no idea when someone who doesn't want to go down with him sells him out.
So is this going to end next month? In the summer? In the fall? We can't say without being there. All we can say is that when the collapse comes, things will happen very fast.
And the next petro-power is...Israel A modern Israeli joke is that is Moses had not turned left after crossing the Red Sea but kept going, Israel wouldn't have been the only major Mideast state without oil. (We hope we don't have to point out that the geography of the region was quite different back in the day: it really was the land of milk and honey, and the Israelites had no reason to go further.)
Anyway, turns out Israel may have 250-billion/barrels of shale oil. Yes, that billion, not million. Getting to it is not easy: cost estimate is $70-$100.
Though we have to tell you frankly, having followed shale oil from the days when J. Paul Getty said he could extract it for $3/barrel, circa 1970, these costs estimates are not worth the paper they're written on. As the price of oil rises, estimates of shale oil recovery also rise: it is never quite economical, and this is a very suspicious process. Anyway. We digress.
So there's a gentleman who thinks he can get the oil out at $35/barrel using a new process. If the process can be widely implemented, that would make recovery economical at today's prices. The process involves inserting heating rods into the oil deposit, then gradually liquefying the oil over 3-5 years. Then it starts flowing like normal oil, which is easy to mine. Pretty darn clever, we think. And presumably this could work for the US shale oils, of which the US has a couple of trillion barrels - at least.
BTW, one of those crazy Saudi prince's said the other day he wants to keep the US hooked on relatively inexpensive oil. he figures a maximum ceiling of $80/barrel; higher and the US finds alternative energy economical. You heard this from the horse's mouth, so we shouldn't say we weren't warned. Of course, Saudi has an incentive to sell all the oil it can before Iraqi fields, which contain much more oil than Saudi Arabia's, come into full production. Iraq will be setting the world price, not Saudi.

0100 GMT June 3, 2011

Not much news today

AQAP Seizes Second Yemen City: Xinhua The official Chinese newspaper says that after seizing Zinjibar in the southern province of Abyan, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has now seized the city of Azzan, in the southern province of Shabwa on Wednesday. The newspaper says security forces presence is limited because of the revolt against the Yemen president.
Meanwhile, media reports fighting continues between loyalists and rebel forces. Rebels launched a rocket attack at a mosque where the president was visiting, slightly injuring him.
The president is now saying that if he has to go into exile, the three sons of his main opponent have to go into exile too.
British Gurkha singlehandedly fights of 30 Taliban who attacked his machinegun post. He thought he was done for and decided to take as many of the enemy with him as possible. He fired 400 rounds, 17 grenades, detonated a Claymore mine after he ran out of ammunition, and beat off one attacker with his machine gun tripod.
He has been awarded the Conspicuous Gallantry Medal, second only to the Victoria Cross.
If you haven't heard of the CGC, don't blame us: we too had no clue about this award and had to check http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conspicuous_Gallantry_Cross That explained why we hadn't heard of it, its a new award that was instituted only in 1993 and replaced several other awards.
Solar probes The Russians are working on a solar probe that will approach between 30-40 solar radii after a 2015 launch. The Europeans plan to put an orbiter around the sun at 60 radii, which is about the orbit of Mercury, in 2017. US plans a solar probe to approach within 8.5 solar radii for 2018 launch. (From Pravda, June 2, 2011.
Damning critique of IMF in Africa This is written by a British journalist, Johann Hari, who no one seems to like, not even the Dalai Lama. http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/johann-hari/johann-hari-its-not-just-dominique-strausskahn-the-imf-itself-should-be-on-trial-2292270.html

0100 GMT June 3, 2011

Cyberattacks are acts of war: US plans new doctrine This means when the President determines US has been a victim of cyberattacks, he will have a full-spectrum option in response. That includes air and missile strikes and whatever is deemed a proper response. About time and all that; but we can't imagine the US launching cruise missiles next time a computer cluster in downtown Beijing is deemed responsible for a cyberattack on the US. We are told that daily thousands of China-originating cyberattacks are made against sensitive US networks, and this number can only grow because the Chinese thinks they are masters of this form of warfare and we can't see US doing much about it by way of retaliation.
Conversely, however, we are being told that when we talk cruise missiles, we are on the wrong track. Apparently the new doctrine means that the US government is giving itself the authority to launch cyberattacks in retaliation. The Americans being lawyers, currently that authority is lacking.
Did US raid North Waziristan to snatch five militants? North Waziristan is the hangout for the Pakistani Haqqani lot, designated by NATO/US as the most dedicated of the Taliban groups seeking to get the west out of Afghanistan. The Haqqanis are a core Pakistani asset, and the Pakistanis have repeatedly said they are not going to launch operations in this district. We've repeatedly noted that from Pakistan's viewpoint it makes no sense whatsoever to be attacking any Taliban except those that have turned against Pakistan. So after the OBL business, it seems logical US would do its snatch think in the district.
But Bill Roggio is not so sure the reports are correct, mainly because his sources say nothing about the raid. Other reasons for skepticism are outlined in http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2011/05/a_us_raid_in_captures_taliban.php if you have time, read the reader responses to the article as well, many are informative.
Sensational out-of-court disclosure in David Headley/Bombay 2008 case? We haven't been following this case in Chicago for the simple reason its a waste of time. The main suspect behind the bombing, David Hedley (who is a Pakistani-American) has turned state's evidence in exchange for a deal that spares him extradition to India, or a death sentence in the US. So he's looking at an effective life sentence and is no longer of interest.
Headley has sought to make himself out as a relatively minor player, blaming a Pakistani-Canadian who lives in Chicago. The two men are long-standing friends. We are presuming that the Pakistan-Canadian is going to take the fall and will be put away for good. So there's nothing of interest here.
The point which understandably thrills and delights Indians is the constant reference to a Major Iqbal of Pakistan ISI, Headley's controller. Major Iqbal has been indicted, and Indians are waiting with bated breath to see ISI exposed. To which Editor has to say to the Indians: Tut tut, children. This is all very boring. Haven't you figure out Uncle Sam has outmaneuvered you all yet again, and the US is not going to put itself into a position that brings even more damnation on the Pakistanis.
And so far Major Iqbal has remained a shadowy figure of whom Headley seems to have no actionable knowledge. Nothing of interest to anyone here, either.
Now comes the Pakistani-Canadian's wife, who says the mysterious Major Iqbal was a friend of her husband's when her husband was an Army doctor. She says Headley insinuated himself into her family, making friends of her and the couple's children, and he's the guilty person, not her husband. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/Tahawwur-Rana-knew-Major-Iqbal-from-army-days-Wife/articleshow/8701987.cms
With us so far?
Now we can explain the question mark about is this a sensational disclosure. The wife has made these allegations in an interview with the Times of India. But is any of this unknown to US authorities, who would have interrogated her and her husband (who is in custody) about one gazzilion times. Our guess is that she has gone to Times of India because no one in US Government is paying much attention to her allegation. This could be because the prosecution is not buying the story, or doesn't consider it relevant to its case against the Pakistani-Canadian. In which there is nothing here despite the apparently sensational disclosure, and we can go back to snoozing, which is what Editor does best of all.
Now, this Headly person is interesting, and of so much interest to the Indians that US has done its absolute best the Indians were not even allowed to interrogate him without US minders. He's been a drug addict, smuggler, DEA informant, member of a Pakistani terror group, ISI agent has some relationship to Al Qaeda. And also - dare we say this - a double agent in that he was also giving US Government information on these various organizations. People think this puts the US Government into a tight spot because US Government has been dealing with a man who is implicated in killing US citizens.
Titter. Giggle. Snort. Why should this put US Government in any kind of corner? US is openly helping Pakistan, which is openly behind insurgent groups who are killing Americans, and we see no maiden-like blushes on the cheeks of Uncle Sam.
Therefore, In Our Humble Opinion, this trial needs to be ignored.
Better we spend our - and your - valuable time analyzing Angelina's coy statement that Brad is, well, a real man. Since no one thought he was a Martian, we're not sure why Angelina feels compelled to share this information with us. And if he is a real man, can we presume that like other real men he finishes in under a minute and then goes to sleep, snoring loudly? Why is Angelina drawing attention to this? Who can figure out women.

0100 GMT June 2, 2011

Libya: enough with the hypocrisy, already Let's first make clear Editor believes Gaffy Duck has to go - even without the casus belli he provided by suppressing his people. This man may have calmed down with old age, but he was one of the greatest destabilizing factors in the Sahel, and his petty imperialist ambitions had no end. On his links with terrorists we have to give him a pass because the US has not produced evidence. Sure, he bombed a night club and so on, but he was at war with the US. Besides, right now its become difficult to condemn terrorists, when the US is happily in bed with one of the greatest sources of global terrorism.
What we're objecting to is that every time the west clobbers Gaffy in another series of air attacks out trots the propaganda: "We are degrading his ability to attack his own people."
From the very start it was obvious that to stop Gaffy from attacking his own people, he'd have to go. Regime change was logically the objective from Day 1. Why not stop lying and just come out and say it?
The hypocrisy is particularly annoying because Bahrain, Syria, and Saudi Arabia are also busy repressing their people and the west is sniffing tulips or whatever. To the Editor, the sole justification for ensuring Gaffy Quacks No More is that the west is for democracy, and is willing to fight for it. If the west is not going to take out the Emirs, the House of Saud, Assad and various other tyrants, it has no moral right to talk about saving Gaffy's people from his Quacks.
Yes, of course we understand why the west is not taking on House of Saud for example. But then for gosh's sakes, stop moralizing. Just come out and say there's some tyrants who benefit us, there's others who don't. We'll not touch the ones who are our BFFs, and we reserve the right to opportunistically take out the others as suits us.
Its the hypocrisy that grates badly. Can US/NATO understand that or is this too complicated an idea?
Talking about oppression: women and driving in Saudi Arabia So, women cannot drive in Saudi Arabia, nothing new. If they don't have a male relative (has to be a relative ) to drive them around they have to hire a chauffer. If they can't afford a chauffer, they're out of luck.
So a divorced mother launched her own protest, posted a picture of her driving, and was arrested. Currently she is on bail, urging other women to protest. You can never really tell how well or how badly protests are going in Saudi, because in case people haven't noticed, its time for them to know that this great ally of Sam's is locked down much tighter than China. China is a great paragon of democracy compared to Saudi when it comes to news getting out.
In response to a Facebook page urging women to protest, a counter-page was launched. This page urges men to attack women who are seen driving. Isn't this a serious violation of human rights, to say nothing of all the other rights of which Saudi women are deprived?
So Mr. Obama, Mr. Cameron, Mr. Sarkozy, et al: please tell us again how the Libyan people need liberating but Saudi women don't. Yes, its quite true that the Kingdom has not been shooting demonstrators like our pal Gaffy Duck of Libya. But that's because the Kingdom runs so tight an oppression, demonstrations never get going.
So if these great leaders say we have to stop Gaffy from killing his people, aren't we really saying that the man is being made to pay because he was inefficient about his internal controls and people started demonstrating so he had to shoot them, whereas the efficient Saudis don't let demos start, so since there are no demos they don't need to shoot anyone, so no need for us to do anything about Saudi?
And talking about western hypocrisy: anyone seeing what western women are doing to help their Saudi sisters? Does anyone think if the women of the west rose up and demanded action on Saudi and other societies oppressive to women, it would take longer than a week for the west to start acting? But there you have it: another case of "we got ours, Saudi women are not our concern.". Fair enough, but then why are Libyan women our concern? Of course, let's not start mentioning African women in war torn countries like the Congo, where the women have suffered horrific violence - and continue to - in the last decade.

0100 GMT June 1, 2011

Gasp! US figures out Afghan War is too costly!! Pass the smelling salts, please!!! The Washington Post has revealed that the US is spending $1-million/year per soldier in Afghanistan and can no longer afford this level of expenditure. Of course, even a dead tapeworm could have figured that out - $110-billion divided by 110,000 troops - and from time to time we have mentioned this. what's amazing to us is the WashPo is reporting this figure as a sort of a Paul on the Road to Damascus thing for the Washingtoon elite. That's the real news, not the figure.
Incidentally a reader asks why we refer to Washingtonians as "Washingtoons". "Toons" is American vernacular for cartoons, and the Washington elite is a perfect analog for the two dimensional denizens of Cartoon World. As for "Loony Tuners", we adapted that from the old Warner Brothers cartoon clips that used to run before the main movie in the 1940s and 1950s, titled "Looney Tunes". So Editor is giving away clues to pin down his age, but you knew he was pretty ancient before this, so it does no harm.
The big question now is: will enough Republicans live up to their budget-cutting anthem and realize the defense budget has to be cut too? If they do, President Obama will have the political cover he needs to drastically cut Afghan outlays. But if the Republicans are going to be hypocritical, wanting to cut programs they don't like while preserving those they do like - defense being a big Like - then we are doomed.
We're still waiting for the US military to realize that when the enemy spends $5000/year per fighter, and we spend $2.5-million/year per fighter (most US troops are supporting the fighting force), then something is seriously wrong with the current counter-insurgency doctrine. If you want to dignify it as a doctrine, of course. we doubt this realization will every materialize. The American people are so full of baloney with their false adulation of the military, which is simply a device to absolve our guilt over sending them to fight while we watch Monday Football, that the generals can get away by fighting our wars however they want, with no accountability. (And that's not the generals' fault, its our fault. The generals are simply doing what all generals do: ask for unlimited time and unlimited money).
Of course, money is not the true measure of if a war is worthwhile. If it is worthwhile, then like President Kennedy said, we should be willing to bear any burden etc etc. The way the Afghan War has been fought is not just mind-bogglingly stupid, there is no way we are going to win this war unless we carry the load for the next five decades. And there's still no guarantee we're going to win. At that point you have to start asking not just what in Cain's name are we doing, but is this affordable.
"Mobiles may cause brain cancer" says a new study. Question: do people who spend enough hours on their mobile to get cancer have a brain to begin with? As a school teacher, Editor can personally testify that mobiles, I-pods, texters, and hand-held videogames are the biggest obstacle to learning in the classroom. Schools in the Washington DC area, at least, seem completely unable to keep students and these devices separated in class. Even in a class with the strictest teacher, it is Editor's observation that one fifth to one fourth of students are paying no attention whatsoever because of their electronic gadgets. That's on top of the kids who pay no attention without electronics.
The rest of us teachers have to spend one minute out of three telling kids to put away their stuff, the alternative being calling security, having the kid taken to the administrator, and filling out a full report including phone calls to the parents who somehow seem to be unavailable if its school calling. This can take 15-20 minutes per incident. Teachers typically have 150 students assigned to them. Do the math. It is no surprise that most teachers just give up, as long as a student is not too in our faces about use of electronics. And Editor is not even brining up the sheer unpleasantness of fighting with the students period after period and day after day - in addition to the regular confrontations that are a routine part of any teacher's day.
It took editor many years to figure out why the school administrations are so pathetically weak on this matter. Its because you give an administrator or a teacher half a chance, and they're on their electronics. So where is anyone's moral authority to stop the kids?
Fake educationists like Bill Gates never tire of telling teachers that if they made their lessons interesting, they wouldn't have trouble in class. Really? Are the students doing their teacher a favor by turning up? And I for one would love to know what Mr. Gates would do if his employees started coming up to him and saying: "The work you give us is soooo boooooring. Cant you make it interesting?" What would Mr. Gates' managers do if he held them accountable for the achievement of their employees, but gave them absolutely no authority to ensure even that the employees turn up for work, and then told them it's their responsibility to make the work interesting so that the workers WANT to attend and do the work?
This is just one example among hundreds of this country has lost its mind.

Letter from Mr. Ramnagesh Iyer on Mr. Zuma

I do not agree with your premise that negotiating with Col Gaddafi is equivalent to supporting tyrants. If that were the case, every single govt, including the US and most of Europe should have been recalled by their electorates - they have all negotiated with him at some point of time. Why, even the nuke negotiation that people had with him a decade back would be tantamount to 'supporting tyrants' in your view! The point about supporting or opposing tyrants is very tricky. No one is morally pure here - least of all the West that cozies up to Saudi while fighting the Col. Given that, few believe this war is about fighting despotism. Thus conversely, trying to negotiate an end to it is not supporting tyranny.
About this war, the less said the better. You may not see it in the US due to being flooded with biased news from the American media. But the fact is that only some three countries in the world (US, UK and France) support this war. I dont count the views of American puppets like Saudi or Qatar in this. There were so many abstentions in the UNSC that the war did not have popular support even to begin with. Even those who supported it then (possibly fearing genocide in East Libya by the Col) have now feel NATO has gone way beyond its mandate. Today it looks more like the usual American imperialism. Most of them want a quick end to the war. Negotiation is one way (probably the best) that is going to happen.
Editor's comment If Mr. Zuma were mediating in good faith, we would have nothing to say. Unfortunately, this head of a democracy that won its freedom through insurrection , supported by a western boycott of the apartheid regime, has a history of negotiations that leave the ruling tyrant in place. We believe Mr. Zuma more than anyone else in Africa owes it to his people, and to Africans - he is the head of AU - to help overthrow African tyrannies.
If one was to catalog the sins of the west vis-a-vis non-white people, one would never get finished. Our point, however is that the so called 3rd World cannot justify its support of tyranny by looking at the west and saying: "They did it; who are they to tell us what to do." The west was wrong to support tyranny - and still is wrong in matters like Saudi Arabia, the overthrown of which Orbat.com regularly calls to the point Editor sounds like Poe's Raven. Equally, South Africa is wrong to support tyranny. We're not bring up India's support of tyranny because like the west's sins, we'd never get finished. India has a special place in the world in fighting for democracy in the 3rd World. With the exception of 1971 Bangladesh, it never has.
Actually, Editor at least is aware that the west's intervention in Libya has no support worth mentioning. Thanks to the Internet, it is possible now to read newspapers from every country. Again, however, doing the right thing doesn't mean a country should count the votes and saying, "well, doing the right thing is unpopular, so we'll be quiet".
Agreed, the west's motives in Libya are not 100% pure. Neither were India's motives in 1971. Nonetheless, regardless of motive, that war was the noblest thing India has done overseas since it gained independence.

0100 GMT May 31, 2011

Zuma Go Home Does the South African president have no shame? Apparently not. He has just concluded his second trip to try and effect talks for Libya. The terms are vintage Zuma. He expressed his closeness to his "brother-leader". NATO and the rebels should ceasefire, he demands. And what does Col. Gaddaffi have to do? Why, nothing at all. Just promise to talk.
Isn't it ironic when Mr. Zuma, the leader of a democracy, should call a cruel dictator "brother-leader" and seek to make common cause with a dictatorship? The question is not why Mr. Zuma made this trip. He is BFF with every dictator or authoritarian leader in Africa. His standard solution is that the leader should stay in power, while the people get to suck their thumbs. The question is why do his people not ask for his recall? When they democratically elected Mr. Zuma, was it their intent he should befriend every dictator in sight? Somehow we don't think so.
Joining the people of South Africa in supporting Mr. Zuma is the West. No one says a word to Mr. Zuma. Part of this is racism. We westerners are so politically correct we cannot criticize Mr. Zuma. Then comes greed for money. We are ready to blast Crocodile Mugabe, of course. But we have minimal business interests in Zimbabwe. But South Africa, now, that's a different matter: who amongst us doesn't want to invest in South Africa?
South Africa wants to be accepted on the world stage. Its time to tell South Africans that to do so, they have to meet minimum standards, one of which is to support democracy and not, like their president, support tyrants.
Now, it's possible, perhaps likely, that the people of South Africa do not support NATO's attack on Libya. But in that case, let them go and throw out Gaddaffi. They cannot say: "We got our democracy, now others have to live under the rule of tyrants." There are responsibilities that go with democracy.
South Africa is no different from the way India has behaved since 1947. We got our democracy in 1947, but according to us, others were not ready. There was not one non-white dictator that India did not legitimize, and it was BFF with the white dictators of the Soviet Union. In all that long time since 1947, only on one occasion did India fight for another people's right to self-determination, and that was in the 1971 East Pakistan campaign. Sure India's interests were served by that intervention. But no one says that one has to be pure before intervening on the behalf of other oppressed people. And anti-colonialism does not mean India has to support every non-white dictator that exists - and there's plenty of them.
The great Nelson Mandela reminded the west, often enough, about its moral responsibility to see an end to the wicked Afrikaner regime. One day, after long years, his message got through, and the west helped overthrow the white government. It is now time for the South African people to do their part so that others may be free.
Potential Collapse of the Eurozone We're not quite sure why the much-feared collapse of the Eurozone is a bad thing. 'Twas a famous experiment and all that, but the obvious has to be stated, that perhaps it was unrealistic to expect 30+ economies to function in concert.
The main problem for a Eurozone member - and there are other problems - is that if your economy becomes out of balance, for whatever reason, you cannot devalue your currency as a way out. So thanks to the Euro, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Portugal, and Spain were able to borrow huge amounts (we've heard figures of $1-trillion+ are at risk) at very low interest rates. This led to asset bubbles, and the false growth fooled these countries into thinking they didn't have to work on their structural problems, such as their growing budget deficits, which in turn were caused by too much government deficit spending. Etc., Etc., Etc.. Normally you would devalue, but because you're in Eurozone you can't. So someone has to subsidize your growing debt, or you're going to default. if you default, the private banks get hit, then liquidity reduces Etc., Etc., Etc.. We could bore ourselves into a coma going through all this, but readers will get the general drift.
So the haves, such as Germany and France, are no longer willing to bail out the high spending, reckless countries like the four mentioned. Further, even if the haves were willing to continue bailing out the bad boys, the bad boys will not be able to pay that money back for decades, if ever.
Its like you can no longer afford your mortgage, and your house is worth less than you paid for it, but instead of letting you default, the bank says "we'll lend you more money, and in return you have to cut this spending and that spending." Comes a point you've cut everything you can cut, and you still cant pay back the bank. Greece is already at this point. And this is why banks don't bail you out, they accept your default.
In the dry world of international finance, its fine to order a country to cut this, that, and the other, but there comes a point where the less well-off sections of society say "we're saying it now and we're saying it loud, we won't reduce our spending any further and we're proud." That is, the masses, unimpressed by the wit and wisdom of central banks, revolt.
So Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain may have to leave the Eurozone. This has costs, but it looks like the time rapidly approaches when the costs are far outweighed by the benefits.
Why was the idea of a United States of Europe pushed in the first place? Military security, economic prosperity, political stability, and a final end to a Europe that warred against itself for a millennia or whatever. There is no more military threat; you don't have to put all of Europe into one economic bloc to stop countries from making war against each other. As for political stability, the trend is toward smaller units, not bigger. Portugal, for example, has a very rich tradition of local government. For economy, the central bankers want Portugal to centralize its government, and the people are upset, because to them local government is very important. FRY split up, Czechoslovakia split up, Belgium may split, UK is separating, but the sky hasn't fallen. Common sense rather than narrow nationalism drives the European states now, and you can have great cooperation even if you aren't part of the Eurozone.
It won't be a tragedy if several states depart. They can always return when their affairs are in order.
Theatre of the absurd Many Euros think the Americans are crazy. If you are an American, here's proof the Euros are certifiably bonkers. Reader Luxembourg sends an article in the magazine Science, put out by the American Academy of the Arts and Sciences, which says that Italian seismologists are being put on trial for the criminal act of failing to predict an earthquake that hit Italy.
All fine and good, except scientists say earthquakes cannot be predicted. Cannot be done. Impossible. People like the AAAS have been telling the Italian Government not to act stupid, but the Government goes on and on, much as Kate Winselt's love for Leonardo DiCaprio in The Titanic.
Okay, so today we think it quaint that the Church made Galileo recant when he said the earth orbits the sun. But first, that was half a millennia ago. Second, Galileo was challenging - however much he wished he weren't - the basis of Church power. what's happening to the Italian seismologists is the equivalent of the Church throwing Galileo off the Leaning Tower and then arresting him because he couldn't fly.
This ex-CIA man is making trouble He's challenging the entire narrative of the Global War On Terror. Michael Scheuer says the Islamist war against the west is being waged not because this lot hates our culture, democracy, and equal rights for women, but because the Islamists are reacting against what they see is American imperialism. They want an end to American intervention in their countries and in the Middle East (Israel) and the Gulf (Saudi Arabia).
Mr. Scheuer has published a book detailing his thesis, and of all people, Osama liked the book.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/hay-festival/8545417/Hay-Festival-2011-ex-CIA-man-claims-Barack-Obama-doesnt-have-a-clue.html
Frankly, at orbat.com we think this is war of beliefs, but in all fairness, that's because everything we read - and 90% of it is inevitably US/British originated. Maybe we aren't right. For example, US has often said of Osama, he says he fights us because we're in Saudi Arabia, but we left Saudi Arabia, and he's never mentioned Israel till very late.
Well, reading the article it occurs to us that actually we never left Saudi Arabia. We may have withdrawn the troops sent for Gulf I/II, but we are tighter with Saudi Arabia than we were before Gulf I. As for Israel, why should Osama felt obliged to fight for Palestinians rights when his quarrel is with the US over Saudi Arabia?
If Mr. Scheuer's thesis is correct, he is a very, very, very bad boy. By arguing for US withdrawal from the Mideast, thus reducing our habit of intervention, he's being very - he's being very - he's being very American. (We thought we'd never get that out.)
British PM and family pay for their own vacation including $1200 of tickets for four of them on EasyJet, which is a budget airline. Their earlier holiday was via RyanAir. That's not a budget airline, its Scrooge McDuck Airways because RyanAir squeezed pennies and passengers till they squeak. (RyanAir is recently known for wanting to charge for use of aircraft toilets, and for wanting to introduce a standing-room-only area on its aircraft. You would fly holding on to a strap.)
Kind of different from when the US Prez goes on vacation, no?

0100 GMT May 30, 2011

Libya There are rumblings that the end game may be near. Gaffy Duck's people are said to have been in touch with the British; no information on the why.
Next, rebel fighters in Misurata have been warned to stay out of certain areas to allow British Apache attack helicopters to operate with the fear of friendly casualties. Rebels have pushed loyalist forces to points 25-kms outside the center, but the loyalists are still causing casualties by firing rockets.
Last, there is a concentrated effort to knock holes in the kilometers of walls surrounding the military base in Tripoli where Gaffy's elite trouble hang out, and where he is often to be found. Presumably this is a prelude to attacks by rebels, though we have no idea what, if anything, the west has arranged. Tripoli has been in lockdown since the first days of the revolt and so far, at least, the rebels have not been able to organize any meaningful attack.
Egypt opens Rafah Crossing allowing Gaza residents to go back and forth to Egypt for the first time in four years. Young men 18-40 years of age are required to get permits. Trade is still prohibited. First day crossers including people heading to Egypt for medical treatment, students with visas to study abroad, and others visiting family.
True to form, Israeli Government has been making dark threats about terrorists getting access, but - thank goodness - some Israelis are sensibly saying Israel has earned so much opprobrium because of the Gaza blockade that the opening takes much pressure off Tel Aviv.
Yemen A southern town has fallen to rebels including Al Qaeda fighters.
Syria Clashes between security forces and rebels continue, with tanks now deployed around two cities where the situation is out of hand.
Wind power good news and bad To reduce their dependence on N-power, the Japanese have decided on a major wind-power push. Currently wind power costs ten times per kilowatt/hour as nuclear. But the Japanese said they except the cost to falls to a third by 2015, and drop to half again soon after. That will be the point wind becomes competitive with N-power.
Back in good old Britain, however, there are indications that weather changes in the jet stream pattern will bring 40 years of severely diminished winds, which will render Britain's wind power plans and existing farms irrelevant.
If you are interested in the details, please go to the URL following. Essentially, when the sun's activity declines, the jet stream brings cold weather but calm winds to England. Scientists think the Little Ice Age in the British Isles 1945-1715 was caused by such a decline in the sun's activity and consequent changes in the jet stream. Apparently the region saw peak winds in 1985, and a decline thereafter. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/windpower/8545306/Wind-farms-Britain-is-running-out-of-wind.html
Readers may remember our occasional references to Russian scientists who believe the world is headed for global cooling, not warming, because sun's activity will decline. They said that the effects should start showing up after 2013.
readers may wonder why we so often talk about windpower. For one thing, its much in the news these days. For another, we want to keep people aware that alternate energy is no panacea to replace nuclear and coal.
Laws of physics may vary in our universe Its been pretty much accepted that the laws of our universe vary in universes other than our own. Our universe, it was said, is in the Goldilocks Zone - "Just right" for life as we know it to form. Vary one of six cosmological constants even slightly, and you get a universe that does not support life, or at least life as we define it.
Now comes a shocker. The value of Alpha, one of those cosmological constants, may vary in our universe, forget other universes. Alpha, the fine structure constant, determines the interaction between light and matter http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn19429-laws-of-physics-may-change-across-the-universe.html Increase Aplha by four percent, and carbon cannot form, so goodbye carbon-based life, which is us. The articvle cited says constants are having to be revised all the time nowdays. The data keeps piling up, but as yet no one can figure out what it all means.
As always, "our universe" refers to our visible universe. There seems little doubt the universe is much, much larger than what we can see.

0100 GMT May 29, 2011

We wrote the below because there was no real news. Before going to bed Editor chanced to look at the Los Angeles Times online. There was a detailed investigative story on Dr. Bruce Ivins, the alleged anthrax killer. Like many, Editor doubted a man his neighbors praised as affectionate and friendly could commit so cold blooded a crime. Editor was doubly skeptical because the FBI had for so long pursued a vendetta against another scientist, Dr. Steven Hatfield, whose life was ruined and who was later cleared by the FBI.

The LA Times story shows a completely different side to Dr. Ivins. He was trouble from the start, and his psychiatrists and mental health counselors knew that. But but because of patient confidentiality laws his employer never got to know he was a psychopath. That employer was the US Army. If the US Army had no way of being told one of its top bio-war researchers was a violent looney tuner, you have to wonder what might have happened if Dr. Ivins had been more imaginative and unleashed a bio-attack on the country. The word "chilling" is regularly overused in the media. We leave it to readers to decide if the word is appropriate in this case. And we wonder if the US military/government has changed its policies on patient confidentiality for those who work in sensitive areas.

LA Times also says the Hatfield vendetta was because of one obsessed agent, implying the Bureau itself was not at fault. Other agents decided that Hatfield was not the culprit, but this one person would not let go. If he had been right when all thought him wrong, he would have been a hero. Instead, the Government ending up paying Dr. Hatfield $6-million for defamation and harassment.

This is yet another of those stories that if someone had written a novel about, people would have said: "What a great imagination". Once again, fact appears to be stranger than fiction.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-anthrax-ivins-20110529,0,1007330.story?page=4

Berlo "very spiritual", he "talks to God"

So says a young lady who arranged "bunga bunga" parties for the Prime Minister of Italy. He has also helped her "to find God". She arranged parties for Berlo because he was lonely.
E-mail to the young lady from Editor: "Ma'am, your photograph shows that you are - er - very intelligent and religious. Saintly, even. May I have the honor of personally introducing you to God, with whom I am in touch on a daily basis? God and I are Best Friends Forever, if I may say without appearing immodest. Also, I am terribly lonely, not having had a date since 1977.
Yes, its true I was married to Mrs. R the Fourth for 32 of those years, but the good lady never permitted me to have even one date, though she herself was absent a great deal. Arranging parties for all those lonely people that the Beatles sang about, no doubt. God's work and all that, bless her.
My friend Woody Allen (who people said I resembled, when I had hair on my head) says that being bisexual means doubling the chances of a date on Saturday night. Perhaps, but sadly two times zero is still zero.
I spent much time - to no effect, alas, trying to convince two nice young ladies at the YMCA that since they liked each other, and I liked both, the commutative property implied that they liked me. And since because of advanced age I was - er - not as manly as I was in my salad days, they could think of me as belonging to the fair sex. To prove my sincerity, I was willing to dress up in a skirt and tank top. Being a good math teacher, I had them almost convinced until they said they were not from Takoma Park, Maryland, and did not like ladies who refused to shave their legs and chests. Its true people think I have no principles when it comes to trying to get a date. But they lie. I was prepared to shave my legs. I drew the line at the bikini wax. Very painful consequences should the beautician's hand slip. Couldn't take that chance.
At our local YMCA, the staff ladies are very maternal though they are a fourth my age. They are constantly giving me advice on how to get a date. When I see them Sunday, their first question is always "did you get a date last night?" When I give the inevitable answer, "no", they look solemn and insist on comforting me with a group hug. I have several times suggested that a group hug with one young lady at a time in some private place would comfort me no end, but they are too innocent to get the hint.
The other day, Cindy at the front desk said: "Mr. Ravi, you must lie to the ladies and not tell them you haven't had a date in 34 years. Women don't like losers. Lie to them about the date part" Since Cindy had lately been a pre-calculus student of mine when I substituted at her high school, I knew her to be an intelligent, mathematically talented person. I gave her advice a solid go. The next time a cute lady smiled at me, I told her "My name is George and I haven't had a date in 24 years," Which was a whopper of a lie. She said "Excuse me a moment, I left my towel poolside." I faithfully waited for seven days and seven nights, till one of the ladies at the desk told me the cute person had cancelled her membership and was now at LA Fitness downtown Silver spring.
At this point Rebecca took over. "Women no longer have time for small talk. Use the direct approach." The next cute lady I directly approached did something quite magical with her hands and feet. I mean, since I was one moment in the gym, and the next moment in Holy Cross Hospital's emergency ward, magic had to be involved, right? Pity Harry Potter never warned me that magic can leave several body parts in a very sensitive state.
Yesterday at one of my schools an ultra-cute lady teacher came up and said: "Hi. You substituted for me the other day. Perhaps we can meet in my room for lunch and discuss how your day went?" Naturally I was excited, particularly since I had, in fact, never substituted for her. While we discussed her religious salvation, she allowed that she was married. "No problem," I said enthusiastically. I am a renown substitute teacher and I will gladly substitute for your minister." She looked at me speculatively then shook her head. "He likes young men. You aren't young."
Now, ma'am, just to show you how close I am to God, the Old Boy and I regularly exchange "Yo Mama" insults. Just the other day God said: "Your turn to go first." So I said "Yo Mama so fat when she fly to Detroit she need the Russian An-124 to take her. And then they got to attach helium balloons to get it off the runway."
There was silence. So I thought the Old Boy hadn't heard and I hollered: "Yo, God, it's me, Ravi". At which point God said in cold tones: "I don't appreciate that joke."
"Lighten up, Dog," I said, playfully punching him in the arm. At which point God said: "If you can see right, which apparently you cannot, you will see I am white. I do not appreciate your ghetto jokes. I am not your dog. Besides, I am God. I don't have a mother."
Well, you could have knocked me down with a feather. For one thing in Takoma Park we have people with bumper stickers saying "Dog Is My Co-Pilot", and I deduced from that if you are BFFs with God, you call him Dog. More immediately, there was a flash of enlightenment. I suddenly understood why the Old Boy is so cranky. Since he doesn't have a mother, he hasn't had a diaper change since he left the maternity ward. After a few eternities, the pong alone would make anyone grouchy. But there arose another problem.
"Hold on, hold on," I said. "Do you see these calluses on my lips?" The Old Boy allowed he did. "If you're white, then whose fat black butt have I been kissing all these years as I pray for a date for Saturday?".

To be continued

(There is no news today, sorry about that)

0100 GMT May 28, 2011

Its official: no change in US-Pakistan relations While we predicted this the day after OBL was killed, we can't award ourselves even one brownie point for the prediction. It was so obvious nothing would change even the Editor's junior most teddy bear, Gilroy, could have predicted it. Gilroy, by the way, is not giving to having any profound thoughts. He believes in living for the moment and having a good time. So if he could have predicted it, anyone could have predicted it.
The statement, as report in the Times of India: "Addressing a press conference in Islamabad after meeting Pakistan's military and civilian leaders, the US secretary of state said: "The US had absolutely no evidence that anyone at the highest level of the Pakistani government knew the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden.""
So there you have it folks. US took ten years (almost) to find OBL, but in less than a month the US has done a full investigation into what the Pakistanis knew or didn't, and decided they didn't know a thing at the highest levels. We could have fun at the Secretary of State's expense parsing that sentence, but Editor is not in a happy mood. Its the usual problem: no date for Saturday evening. Or any evening.
Yemen UK Telegraph reports that the President's position is deteriorating. He has launched air strikes against a rebel column ~70-km NE of the capital seeking to reinforce the rebels inside the city. The rebel leader has said he is ready to consider a truce the president has offered, but he sees no good outcome.
The rebels have captured two helicopters, shot down one, and killed a Republican Guard general. The Guard, says Telegraph, is among the few units that have stayed loyal to the president, but it was pushed out several ministries and key offices the rebels have seized un Saana.
Telegraph says Saudi has told the president it's time for him to go
US replacing TAGOS vessels with stealthy robot micro-subs These little fellers zip along at 3000-meters/hour mapping ocean currents, salinity, the sea floor and so on to obtain information needed for submarine operations. Previously the T-AGOS vessels did this job; they are being phased out as the micro-subs come into service. Several hundred are planned. Please notice they will be extra useful for mapping bases and ports.
Did India reject F-16/F-18 as obsolete technology? We thought India rejected the US fighters for political reasons, one being you just never know when US policy changes and then there's no more spares or upgrades. On the US supplier side, we were told that Boeing and Lockheed said the percentage of offsets demanded by India was unrealistic, as neither company saw all that much potential to buy items from India.
But we keep hearing from people is that the Indians were very angry the US was offering 30-year old designs. US said that the aircraft would be modern versions, but Indian sources this was not the case in reality. Indians also say US kept condescending to the Indian Air Force, saying the aircraft were good enough for India's needs. IAF says it wants world-class, top-of-the-line equipment, and that's why the Russian fighter was rejected along with the US contenders and the Swedish Grippen.
At this point readers may well ask, "why then did India accept the US aircraft as part of its fighter competition?" The answer to this is that the political process of Indian defense purchase requires every system offered be evaluated, to avoid charges of favoritism and kickbacks. Also, the Indians say, they were willing to consider top-of-the-line F-16s/F-18s, but the US refused to release the latest in electronics.
Now, we can't blame the US for that. Japan and the US are close allies, Japan does not get the latest US stuff. India is an emerging ally. But if the Indian side is correct, US should not go around saying "the future of the US-India special relationship is at stake." The Indian purchase of these aircraft should not be made a touchstone for the relationship if US was unwilling to meet India's requirements.
The UK really is different from the US regarding politicians Mr. Ed Millband's six-year girlfriend and mother of his two children has made an honest man out of him: they are now married as of two days ago.
Non-Brit readers may well ask: "And Mr. Millband is exactly who?" Excellent question. He's the head of the Labour Party. In case further translation is needed, he's the leader of the opposition.
Please try and imagine the same situation here. Say Mr. Boehner before he became House speaker. He was then the opposition leader in the house. Visualize him as living-in-sin and with TWO love-children. The mind boggles.
Now, its true rumors say that Mr. Millband may have been influenced by the need to dress himself up for a run at the Prime Ministership. But still.

0100 GMT May 27, 2011

Our pledge to our readers
You will never see a picture of your shirtless Editor on the Internet

We felt compelled to issue this pledge in the light of a letter we received re. The Shirtless Congress person. Editor first planned to post a picture of himself sans-chemise on Craig's List in the hope of getting a date for Saturday. Then we realized, and advised editor, that such a picture would violate the UN Convention on Human Rights. (If a picture of Editor sans-chemise could be posted, you would see why.) Orbat.com has, nonetheless, sent a picture to the CIA for use in extremis when US national security is under dire threat. The idea is if, for example, DPRK attacks ROK, the CIA will infiltrate DPRK's leaders and generals e-mail accounts with The Picture attached. The Awful Sight will fry their brains to the point the leaders and generals are unable to function and the invasion will fail. We checked the UN Convention on Human Rights and there is no protection for invading dictators, so sending them the picture will not constitute a war crime. Let no one say the Editor is not intensely loyal to the country of his residence. No sacrifice is too big to help America, particularly in these trouble times. The Picture alone should permit America to reduce its defense spending to zero as the simple threat of sending The Picture will cause America's enemies, for example, Mullah Omar, to shoot themselves. The savings from eliminating DOD and all military forces can be spent in paying down the deficit.

Letter to the Editor on NY 26 Election

You should make a correction so that your Non-US readers hear the full story of why the shirtless congressman (Chris Lee) resigned. The shirtless picture of himself was posted on Craigslist, where he was trolling for women. On Craigslist he referred to himself as a "divorced lobbyist," which was his on-line persona as he pursued his extramarital affairs. In fact Congressman Lee was married.
Lee was a a Conservative Catholic who ran on a family values platform, always trotting out his wife and dozen children, extolling the virtues of God, Church, marital fidelity, etc. etc. So, it was the rank hypocrisy that got Lee, much more so than the relatively benign act of posting a shirtless picture of oneself on the Internet. He could have easily survived the scandal, indeed politicians have recovered from much worse. However, he chose to resign, and did so very quickly. No one pushed him to resign -- probably because no one had the time to try and push him out. The story was reported on a Thursday evening, and by Friday morning, Lee resigned.

New York Times reads the tea leaves and finds a new Libya policy

NYT says that Mr. Obama has decided to shift his Libya policy to regime change. The NYT describes the change as "subtle". This leaves us confused and bewildered. If regime change wasn't the US policy from the start, what was? Or does the NYT actually believe US policy was only to prevent attacks on civilians? If the paper really does believe that, then it must be the only one in the world not to have gotten the point of US policy from Day 1.
You obviously cant prevent attacks on civilians without regime change. Let's repeat this in two syllable words for the NYT. As long as Gaffy Duck rules, he will attack civilians who disagree with him. The sole way of stopping him is regime change. So regime change was the objective from the start.
Is this too subtle for NYT?
Meanwhile, UK Telegraph quotes British intelligence sources as saying Gaffy Duck has become paranoid - just imagine - and is moving from hospital to hospital. Someone from his side approached someone from the western side earlier this week with hints that Gaffy may want to step down. But what is the point now? There's a warrant out for him. Mubarak of Egypt is to stand trial. Saleh of Yemen, who still refuses to go, will 100% be put on trial. How can the west let Gaffy just disappear into a comfortable retirement at this point of the game?
Speaking of Yemen since Saleh is refusing to go despite several previous agreements, the people fear a civil war. Already the Yemen Army is split. The loyalist faction has been clashing with the country's most powerful tribe for four days now, and UK Telegraph says that several ministries and offices in Saana have fallen to the rebel tribe. US and UK have told their nationals to leave, and non-essential diplomatic staff are being evacuated.

Men are actually good for some things...

Editor has always maintained that if you think about it, a single man suffices to ensure the propagation of the human race. (That and a bunch of doctors who can, of course, be women.) But there are two things that men are undeniably useful for. First of all, in a world of all women the women would kill each other. Having men to beat up, emotionally if not physically, keeps women from turning on one another and lets them be best friends forever with women. Second, men are need to protect the women and the children, even at the cost of their lives.
We were reminded of this by a story from tornado-hit Joplin, Mo. A man got his wife into the bathtub and climbed on top of her as the tornado hit. He took the brunt of the damage and died, she survived unhurt. This may seem terribly sad, as they had been childhood sweethearts before marrying six years ago. But look at the positive side: she'll always have only good memories of him, and they weren't married long enough for trouble to start. She's 25, young enough to start life afresh. Readers may say we're being cynical, but we're being realistic. We read somewhere that the reason there was little divorce in America back in the day was because the typical marriage lasted ten years before one spouse or the other died. So people got another chance without divorcing if they had a bad marriage. Now people are supposed to stay married to each other for 60 years.
We should also mention a heroic dog. He was hiding in a shed when a tornado struck, and he was blown away. Well, his family went back to their devastated home to see if they could save anything, and they found the dog there, waiting for them. He'd returned home, walking on two broken legs. The dog is under expert care and will rejoin his family in six weeks.

0100 GMT May 26, 2011

Little news of importance today

Democrat wins New York state special election The congressperson representing New York's 26th District had to resign because he posted a shirtless picture of himself on the Internet. A special election was held in this district, which has voted Republican for 40 years. The Democratic candidate won, by 48 to 42 percent. The single issue was the Republican plan to bring Medicare costs under control, and the citizens of the district rejected the plan.
The Republicans say had there not been a 3rd candidate in the race, their person would have won. The democrats say the 3rd party was a former Democratic, so he probably took away Democratic votes as well as Republican ones. The real issue is that even if the Republicans had won in the absence of the 3rd party person, it would have been with a substantially reduced margin compared to the 2010 vote which they won.
Republicans say that once people understand the issues, they will vote for the GOP plan. But we recall President Obama saying the same thing about his health care plan, and he lost control of the House in 2010. It seems to us its not a good thing to bet on any voter, Republican or Democrat, failing to see through spin. The American voter is well known for his apathy, but they can do arithmetic fine, and when anyone's plan costs them money, they will reject it.
Which leads to a further thought. Not having any expertise on health care per se, we cannot comment on Mr. Paul Ryan's plan. Good or bad, the unpleasant reality remains that unless Medicare is reformed, and we learn to accept less care, the country is going to go bankrupt. Unless spending is controlled, on all fronts and not just Medicare, the deficit will grow and we will be bankrupt. The arithmetic is simple: the average American pays $150,000 into Medicare over her/his working life, and draws benefits of between $350,000 and $450,000. No one needs a degree in accounting to see this does not add up.
We are not going to get into a discussion of if "spending is controlled" means cutting spending, raising taxes, or some combination of both. There are arguments pro and con all three positions, and we'll leave it to those better informed to work it out.
The GOP Freshman Class of 2010 is not taken aback, in the least, by the NY 26 loss. They say they have to stay true true to their principles even if they lose. Well, all we can say is politics is about compromise. If you're going to make a zero sum game, i,e,, I am right and you are wrong, then those that refuse to compromise will lose their seats. We'd like to ask the GOP candidates: what good will you be able to do in Washington if you are thrown out of Washington.
In case our overseas readers are asking: "A Congressman had to resign because he posted a picture of himself shirtless on the Internet? Are the Americans stark raving bonkers?", the short answer is, yes they are. The entire country is on pharmaceuticals, coffee, alcohol, tobacco, or banned drugs, and far from helping keeping Americans sane, this stuff just seems to make everyone more crazy. On the other hand, you can wonder what Americans would be like if they weren't all on drugs of some kind.
Editor is planning a bumper sticker: "Proud member of Prozac Nation, and I don't vote." Please don't ask how does this slogan make sense. The 36th Amendment to the US Constitution guarantees the right to be crazy.
Stop Press: The British are sending three - count 'em - three attack helicopters to Libya and not just three, there will be a fourth as a spare, and if the need is truly urgent, another three can be made available. This is what the former Empire On Which The Sun Never Sets has come to. What's even worse is that the news about three helicopters is considered major news.
A story about the British The British in the 1980s decided to build 12 modern conventional submarines, (Upholder class, 2400 tons) to supplement their nuclear boats. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the program was cut to 4, and even these four served 2-3 years before being decommissioned.
Someone in Canada had a bright idea to replace their navy's old Oberon boats. Buy the Upholders. So they did, in 1998. Thirteen years later, the Canadians have managed to get precisely one boat into steady operation. Apparently the boats deteriorated seriously while in storage, and had problems to begin with, and the British were dishonest with the Canadians, who turned out to be exceedingly naive.
One boat took six years after sale to fix, and then caught fire in 2004 enroute to Canada. It will set to sea in 2012. Another sailed for 115 days in the time after it was purchased. Return to service in 2011. A third boat did some sailing between 2004-2007, had to be drydocked, and will return in 2012? Apparently every single major system on the boat was busted before the Canadians purchased her. The fourth boat seems to have had fewer problems.
So, we are all familiar with the horror stories about US procurement programs. We guess other countries are just the same muckups as the US.

0100 GMT May 25, 2011

Bombay 2008 Terror Mastermind on Trial in US The US promised this gentleman he would not be extradited to India, and nor would India be allowed to question him alone. We protested at that time, because the death of a handful of American citizens at this man's hands does not take an all-consuming priority when the vast majority of victims were Indian. This would be like India capturing and trying OBL in India, and promising he would not be extradited to the US, because some Indians were 9/11 victims.
The US action in this case is how you treat a vassal, not an ally. The Indian Government and elite is, of course, so determined to suck up to the US that it quietly acquiesced in American decisions. So we cant blame the Americans: they were doing what they always do, which is looking first, second, and last to their own interest. We blame the Indians, who did what Indians always do, sell their country down the river.
This said, it cannot be denied that the terrorist's trial being held in the US has distinct advantages. The American government, as always, has meticulously investigated and built its case. The details emerging of the symbiosis between the Government of Pakistan and terror is being laid bare in excruciating detail. There is no use anyone pretending India could have done anywhere near the same top quality job of investigating and preparing the case.
At the same time, we wonder if the Indian elite realizes its most favorite lover, Uncle Sam, is once again going to betray Mother India. The US is not supposed to deal with terrorist states as if they are close allies. The US has been doing this with Pakistan, and after this trial, they will continue to do so.
If anyone in India or the US is expecting India to explode in outrage over the Americans being in bed with a state that kills Americans as part of its foreign policy, please be prepared to be disappointed. As the Editor's mentor, the famous Indian strategic thinker the late Mr. K, Subrahmanyam told him in the early 1970s, Indians can either be slaves or they can be masters. They don't know how to be equals. We are not going to go into a discussion about why this is so, because frankly the pathology of the Indian ruling classes is a big fat bore. Indians are so pathetic they can't even raise their psychoses to an interesting level.
But in the US-India relationship, no guesses need be wasted as to who is the slave and who the master.
Sorry, the End of the World is now on October 21 One thing Mr. Harold Camping, Family Radio's lead Bible interpreter, cannot be accused of is humility. Since the world didn't end on May 21, he gave a little "oopsies!", says he flubbed the math yet again, and now is shooting for October 21.
There he goes again...President O'Bama - which we can legitimately call him since he is half Irish and has just visited Ireland - again says he is "heartbroken", this time in reference to the tornado that hit Joplin, Missouri. Is the Prez trying to have a competition with the House Speaker to show us how sensitive he is?
The problem is very simple. The Prez is not an emotional person. And as far as we are concerned, that's good, because in America today there are too many leaders who act as emotional as middle-schoolers. Because he is not an emotional person, he doesn't come across as emotional, no matter how emotional are the words he uses. People are not blithering idiots. They listen to your words, yes, but they watch your body language. In the case of Mr. Clinton, who really did feel another's pain, we didn't have these problems. Instead of sympathetic, the Prez is coming across as hypocritical. We like him, and we don't this this gap between his words and body language is helpful.
Professor Cornel West is African-American and a "Giant Intellect". Yes, do think Austin Powers. This gentleman, whose resume says Harvard, Princeton, Yale, Haverford, and University of Paris, had the temerity the other day to say President Obama wasn't black enough and hasn't done anything/enough for black people. Yeah, right. As if Professor West is black enough, and we'd .love to hear from him what has he done for black people lately.
Does it occur to Professor West that President Obama is President of the United States, not president of Black America? Obviously not. It is all those brains. They crowd out common sense.
We are also tired of hearing the President referred to as "America's first black president". So from today, we will refer to him as America's second Irish-American president. Which, by the way, is how the Irish refer to him. That he has his father's last name shows only that we still like in a patriarchal society. From many points of view, a child should have her/his mother's last name. That's the way they do in the state of Kerela, India, which has the highest literacy rate in India and, we are told, the lowest birth rate. This is hearsay from Editor's friends who happen to be in Kerala, but he has been told that the state is so matriarchal that its not unknown for a woman not to bother telling the man if he is the father of a particular child.

0100 GMT May 24, 2011

Unimportant and Important news on US-Israel relations Unimportant after creating a huge furor in Israel by saying Israel must return to its 1967 borders, President Obama was infected with the American politician's disease. This disease strikes American politicians who make the mistake of speaking the truth. The president now says US-Israeli relations are very close. In our humble opinion, none of this qualifies as news.
Important Leonard Di Caprio's ex, Bar Rafeli, has posted a series of pictures of herself on Facebook, where she lounges on a swanky yacht is super-hot poses. People speculate Leonard must be wondering why he broke up with her. This is obviously critically important US-Israeli news.
PS: Editor has seen Ms. Rafeli's pix, since his main source of real news, UK Daily Mail, printed them in its on-line edition. It is possible if you are an adolescent 17 year old male she may look super-hot. As far as Editor is concerned, she's going to catch her death of a cold in the outfit she is wearing, and looks like she needs to return home to her Mama and eat good, home-cooked meals for a few months to put on some weight.
Disputed Sudan town falls to the North Abeyi is on the border of North and South Sudan and claimed by both sides. There are considerable amounts of oil in the area, which probably has everything to do with rival claims. North Sudan forces have taken the town after a series of clashes over the last several months. There is concern the war between North and south may resume.
This time, of course, it won't be a civil war as South Sudan is now independent.
Official statement on attack on Pakistan Navy air base says the following. six insurgents were involved; they snuck onto the base from three points adjacent to the city of Karachi (the base is surrounded by the city on three sides). Four militants were killed, including one who blew himself up. Two escaped. Ten Pakistan military and security personnel were killed. Two P-3 MR aircraft were destroyed; several other aircraft were towed out of the insurgent's range after the attack began. The statement does not explicitly say so, but implies that the insurgents had inside help.
Though we haven't confirmed this ourselves, a Pakistani analyst implies all of Pakistan naval aviation is based at PNS Mehran: six P-3, 6 F-227 MR, 4 Atlantique, 6 Sea Kings, and 6 Z-9 (for the Chinese frigates Pakistan is buying), 8 Alouette 3, and 2 BN-2 Defenders belonging to the Pakistan Maritime Agency. This is quite an array for a country with a coastline of ~1300-km.
Letter from a reader on the Pakistan situation What interests me here is that both AQ and the US seem willing to exert tremendous torque on the state of Pakistan - consequences be damned.
It's not clear how long the centre can hold, and fictions maintained, before there are clear fractures. Despite some palliative talk, the US seems to accept the likelihood of fragmentary outcomes. See Obama's latest "We'll do it again if we must" re: armed forays into Pakistan.
While Pakistan is now playing its China cards, China plays a dangerous game if its leadership believes it can befriend and control radical Islamic forces.

Here is a quite from Asia Times: "Before the incident in Karachi, Asia Times Online was contacted by militants by telephone to confirm future attacks in the following words: "We don't want any trouble inside Pakistan or in the Pakistan army, but we do want to create an environment in which it would be conducive for pro-Islam and patriotic elements in the armed forces to dislodge incompetent and pro-American military officials."

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/ME24Df02.html

Letter on the IMF ex-chief's case

DSK's dalliances with New York Madam's girls is unlikely to be admitted into evidence by the judge because its too prejudicial and could result in a successful appeal.
The alleged victim is here on political asylum. Now, getting political asylum is very difficult, and I would not be surprised if she came here after suffering some kind of horrific physical abuse in her home country. She is likely to come across as very vulnerable and credible. Corroboration of her story through DNA evidence, CCTV footage, and testimony of people who interacted with her in the immediate aftermath of the alleged assault will all be critical pieces of the puzzle. If the corroboration evidence is weak, then that factor certainly starts to tip the scales in DSK's favor, though that is not to say that he is out of the woods.
Much has been made about inconsistencies in what the police are saying. However, this is not surprising at all. The cops are gathering info from numerous different sources, and they are getting conflicting reports from people about the time line. That's totally normal, and their job is to sift through everything and come up with a narrative for the jury. Did he flee from the hotel? Or did he leave, have a long lunch with his daughter and then go to the airport to catch a plane on reservations made weeks ago? To me, it doesn't really matter. Obviously, if he fled straight to the airport, that is a juicy bit of evidence for the government, because it can point to consciousness of guilt. On the other hand, if the left the hotel, went to lunch, and then to the airport on a travel reservation made weeks in advance, then that helps the defense with their argument that this was a consensual encounter.
Either way, this stuff is marginal. If they have physical evidence and a credible victim who can come across sympathetically to the jury, DSK's goose is cooked.
People sometimes dismiss so-called "he said-she said" cases as weak. However, the only way DSK gets his story before the jury is to take the stand himself. That's always a risky move, because depending upon what DSK says, it might open up a whole can of worms about all of his other dalliances. If DSK doesn't take the stand, all of his denials are inadmissible hearsay.
Women tend to be disproportionately represented in the jury pool. They are gistered to vote in higher numbers, and women tend to be far more conscientious -- so they will actually show up when summoned for jury service. Women could well make up make up between 2/3 and 3/4 of the jury. You are likely to see the 35 year-old mother of two who is a school teacher, nurse, or secretary and the 75 year-old retired grandma on the jury. These types of ladies tend to take a dim view of male shenanigans.

0100 GMT May 23, 2011

Insurgents attack Pakistan Navy air base Somewhere between 10-15 insurgents used a sewage pipe to infiltrate PNS Mehran, a base for Pakistan Navy aviation, and attacked aircraft parked. Reader VK forwards a picture clearly showing one P-3 engulfed in a bright ball of white flame, and three adjacent P-3s very close to each other and the burning aircraft not yet touched. Government confirms before 0300 Pakistan time that two P-3s are destroyed and that four Pakistan Navy men and a paramilitary Rangers man have died, and seven more persons are wounded. As of that time several insurgents were still fighting it out with security officials.
Please say "Thank You" to Orbat.com for completely avoiding one subject This is the latest US-Israel dustup. President Obama said Israel must return to its 1967 boundaries, just ahead of the Israeli prime minister's visit. This is official US policy for decades, but apparently it is Bad Form to say openly.
You can imagine what the Israeli response was to being told that it must leave the West Bank. It surpasses understanding why the news media even bother to report the issues related to Israel's boundaries. The Israelis have made it very clear they will not leave the West Bank as long as there is a single Israeli left alive. Neither is Israel going to compromise, nor are the Palestinians, nor is anyone else.
So why can't we spend our time on more interesting news, such as the case of a British Member of Parliament caught speeding on camera, and who allegedly pressured his (estranged?) wife to say she was driving the car so that the points went on her license. Simply fascinating, and of much greater significance to the world than Arab-Israel-US issues.
Mr. Harold Camping and the end of the world This may sound peculiar to many readers, but Editor is a regular listener of Family Radio, the leading luminary of which, Mr. Harold Camping had predicted the end of the world in 1994. When the end of the world did not happen, he said an "Oopsies! Wrong arithmetic" and forecast the world would for sure end on May 22, 2011.
Not that this has any relevance to what we are about to say, but Editor listens to Family Radio because of the religious music. Often in the little talks about marriages and children there is wisdom to be gained, and one can learn something from the talks about the Bible. Though if it is a long talk and it will be a while before the music returns, Editor will shift to another station. Just as one does not have to be a Hindu to find wisdom in Indian sacred and philosophical texts, one does not have to be a Christian to appreciate the Bible.
Back to the point. Not only did the world not end last Saturday, even the Family Radio announcer finishing up a program on Saturday said "back at the same time tomorrow," so clearly some at Family Radio did not agree with Mr. Camping. Many Christians are supposed to be bewildered that Mr. Camping was wrong. They had been told that if they accepted Christ, truly accepted Christ, then at the end of the world they would rise to heaven, and the rest of the unbelievers would die in torment. These people truly believed they had accepted Christ, and they are upset because they have been done out of heaven.
We'd like to say to these people: please be relieved it wasn't world's ending, because despite what Mr. Camping might tell you, he does not speak for God. Almost by definition, humans, who are creations of God, cannot understand God and His/Her will. Who is Mr. Camping to say God's will has been revealed to him? It seems to us almost a given that anyone who is arrogant enough to say "I know God's will", suffers from pride and hubris, and is therefore one of the lesser creatures doomed to die in torment at world's ending.
Further, how can we decide by ourselves that we are Christ's chosen? Isn't it possible, simply by the act of being born and sinning - as have we all if we are human - we have irredeemably removed ourselves from God, no matter how much we may try and and make amends later on? And even if being saved was possible, how do we know we are sufficiently pure to be accepted by Christ?
In Editor's humble opinion, it is better not to prematurely make the assumption we as individuals will be saved. Because again we are guilty of pride, hubris, and claiming we are so smart we know God's mind. If anyone really believed the world would come to an end May 22, 2011, s/he should be uttering a heartfelt "Phew! Thank goodness we have more time to amend for our sins so that perhaps God in His/her grace might deign to save us."

0100 GMT May 22, 2011

Congress and the War Powers Act: either the US is a nation of laws, or it is not

President Obama has ignored the 1973 War Powers Act, which requires congressional approval of any military involvement beyond 60-days. The 60-day mark in Libya has come and gone. Mr. Obama thus joins the ranks of other illustrious law-breakers, such as Mr. Reagan (Lebanon involvement) and Mr. Clinton (Kosovo).
If you or I break the law of land, we are arrested, tried, and punished. When a president breaks the law of the land, it seems all he gets is yawns.
Some try and make the case that the Constitution is contradictory on the powers of the President to make war. They say that while the power to make war rests with Congress, the President in the Commander-in-Chief. According to this theory, there is no clear directive on who can make war, and the President has not broken any law.
A common problem we find in America is that so many people consider themselves extra-smart to a degree they miss the basics. In no country except a military dictatorship can the C-in-C declare war. Once war is declared by the specified office, the C-in-C conducts the war free of the nitpicking daily interference of any other body. There are exceptions, Churchill being the most famous. He was only the Prime Minister, but he was defacto C-in-C of the British armed forces. Not only did he lay down strategy, he interfered in operations on an hour-by-hour basis. And so did Hitler, but we'd hope no US president will feel compelled to justify his war powers by referring to Hitler.
Far from any confusion, US law is quite precise on war powers. Congress declares war, the President leads the war effort. Because of the nature of modern emergencies, particularly in the age of nuclear mutual destruction, as a practical matter the President was given 60-days to seek Congressional approval. He can respond to an attack - say - on an ally immediately. He has two months to do what needs to be done, without referring to Congress. By Day 61, however, he must have approval. This is quite a reasonable period.
Saying that the US acted in response to a UN resolution does not absolve the president from seeking approval. The UN's resolutions on entering hostilities can not override the power of Congress.
So either we are a nation of laws, or we are not. President Obama is acting unlawfully. We say this even though we wholeheartedly back the Libyan operation, and blame the US president for wanting to say he is a virgin, though he engages in sexual intercourse.
When the President himself ignores the law, on what basis does he have the moral authority to tell you or me, or illegal immigrants, or Wall street malefactors, or murderers, or the ex-chief of the IMF that we must all obey the law or be punished?

A letter to the Indian Minister for Defense

Honorable Minister, like most Indians, Editor gets irked when countries like the US treat India and Pakistan as equals in matters of according status in the world. But can we really blame the Americans when we ourselves equate India with Pakistan?
The case in point is your comment on Pakistan's plans for accelerated acquisition of 50 JF-17 Pakistan-China fighters. The Times of India online quotes you as saying: "It is a matter of serious concern for us. The main thing is we have to increase our capability - that is the only answer," Defense Minister A.K. Antony told reporters in New Delhi..."
Lets go back to basics, shall we? Editor's position is that the Partition of India 1947 was illegal, and therefore the creation of Pakistan and its continued existence is illegal.
But that is not your position. every Indian government since 1947 has accepted the legitimacy of the state of Pakistan.
Once you do that, how Pakistan chooses to defend itself is entirely its own business. It is certainly not India's business.
Now let's come into the present. India says it is far bigger, richer, and more important than Pakistan, so it is ridiculous for the US to equate the two.
We agree 100%. So why then are you, Honorable Sir, even bothering to comment on Pakistan's acquisition of a piddly 50 fighters, and that too fighters which are no where near the capability of a modern F-16 - which India deems is not good enough for its air force. Perhaps you have noticed, Sir, that the PAF consists of a mass of obsolete aircraft. The only fighters of any capability worth mention are its 55 or so F-16s, at least 30+ of which are now over thirty years old.
India, meanwhile, is rapidly equipping its air force with the heavy Su-30 Flanker, an F-15 class fighter. It has a competition underway for 126 new fighters. It has its own light fighter, an F-16 class, which is at least as good as the JF-17, preparing for induction. It is also developing a medium combat aircraft. Let's not talk about India's AWACS, AEW, SAM defenses and so on.
Given this disparity, it would have behooved you to say, when asked to comment on the Pakistani deal, that what Pakistan does is its own business, and left it at that.
A last point. As is no secret, under your guidance, all of Indian defense acquisition is in a right royal mess. At the slightest allegation of bribes being paid, you cancel wholesale multi-billion dollar deals and force the services to start all over again. No doubt your personal dealings as an Indian politician are so above reproach that God in her heaven trembles at your saintedness.
None of this changes the reality that you are the most anti-defense minister since 1947 that it has been India's misfortune to put up with. You have zero understanding of defense, and you apparently sleep soundly at night, undisturbed by the prospect that should war break out tomorrow, the Indian military will go to war with a huge lot of obsolete equipment. Men will die because of you. Not that you are in the least bothered.
Our point here is not your perversions which affect Indian security. Our point is that if Pakistan has its act together for defense procurement, and you don't, rather than looking at Pakistan with alarm, you need to ask why in the year of our Lord 2011, the Indian air Force is so behind in its modernization programs.
If you have a moment in your busy day, you would do well to restudy the matter of Krishna Menon and 1962. And by the way, compared to you, Krishna Menon was a speed demon at buying equipment. With the exception of the Army, whom Congress distrusted, Krishna Menon built up the strongest air force in the developing world, and a modern navy. A very misguided young man. But at least he permitted Indian defense needs to take priority - mostly - over his personal prejudices and ignorance.

0100 GMT May 21, 2011

Al Qaeda in the age after OBL The Asia Times thesis ( http://www.atimes.com ) which we have also seen in other media, says that the end of OBL and the appointment of a new, non-Saudi set of leaders signals the end of the original AQ. That AQ's aim was to hit western targets. The new AQ is dominated by the Egyptians, who support the Taliban in their assault on both Pakistan and Afghanistan, with the aim of establishing a new base for AQ.
Truthfully, we don't follow the internal politics of AQ and are not in a position to make informed comments. Some questions do arise about this thesis. Why target Pakistan for a base when you have Afghanistan, large parts of which are not within the government's ambit. The Pakistanis have the capability to destroy AQ in Pakistan, attacking it in Afghanistan is much harder.
Another question may have a simple answer. If the Egyptians are now in charge, why not name Dr. Zawahiri, who is Egyptian, as the chief? This might be because AQ wishes to avoid making Dr. Z the primary target.
Of course, the new Egyptian chief is only an interim head. It will be a while, presumably, before things become clearer.
The ex-IMF chief and the hotel room Media informs that the ex-chief will be under home imprisonment at a Manhattan apartment owned by his wife. His daughter lives in the apartment.
So, a question: why did the gentleman choose to stay at a hotel and not with his daughter, given he was on a private visit? Perhaps this a cold, distant family like many American families, where the emphasis is on not intruding on a family member's "space". Perhaps the young lady has a live-in boy friend and Daddy does not like the boyfriend. But also possible is that the gentleman wanted privacy for his - er - extracurricular activities and did not want to bring women to his wife's apartment where his daughter lives.
While the above is a question about an oddity in the narrative, one fact is now known. The gentleman has no assets in the US because the house in Georgetown belongs to his wife. Yes, the gentleman will have his bank account and perhaps his pension and now severance in the US, because that is where he is based, but by the time he pays for his lawyers and the cost of his home detention, there wont be anything left.
So what does the accuser hope to gain in terms of money? Our reader who is a New York attorney, and who tells us the accuser's lawyer has the reputation for being decent, fair, and honest, and suggests the accuser wants is not a court case for civil damages, but a private settlement. This makes sense.
On the accuser's looks Now, the prosecution has been up to its share of dirty tricks in its effort to try the case in public before a court trial starts. This is normal in America and is quite legal. For American prosecutors, many of whom are politically ambitious or at least look forward to a lucrative private career after achieving name and fame working for the government, it isn't business, it's personal.
At the same time, there are hints of dirty tricks on the defendant's side of the tennis court. Most of what the defense is doing will become public only before or at the trial. The defense will seek to destroy the credibility of the accuser by any means possible, and this being America, this is quite legal.
One dirty trick may fly with the jury but cannot fly with experts on sexual violence. This is word being spread around that the accuser is not, to put it politely, good looking. The implication is "can you imagine someone like the defendant, who has position, money, and style, which gives him access to beautiful women chasing a maid who looks like that?
The difficulty here is that sexual assault has nothing to do with looks, or even with sex. It has to do with power. So if the ex-chief is that sort of a person, the accuser's looks are irrelevant.
At the same time please consider this. This is a womanizer, known for being aggressive toward women. But is there anything in his history that suggests he is given to charging naked out of his bathroom and assaulting servants to randomly assert his power over women?
One of the problem with defining sexual assault today is that advocates of women have managed to frame so broad a definition that it becomes useless. Assaulting a servant at a hotel hints of the pathological. It is different from what us Indians call "piling on", where you push yourself onto someone you meet in a social or work setting, and who you may or may not know, confident in your power. And piling on is also quite different from "coercing" a subordinate into an affair. We go Austin Powers with the word "coercing" because this term eliminates every last bit of responsibility from the woman. Or, to be fair, from the man in the few but growing cases where the woman has the power. This returns women to the 19th Century, as creatures so powerless that every force of society must be deployed to protect them.
Libya No news is good news, because it means the rebels are taking their training seriously and are now disinclined to first charge up a road and then when a few shots are fired at them, charge right back down the road. Building a disciplined force takes time.
Meanwhile, NATO hit and destroyed 8 Libyan naval patrol boats.
There are appeals from a town in the western mountains, where NATO airstrikes are said to have failed to stop a loyalist offensive.
US-Taliban negotiations: a misunderstanding Many folks seem to think the US is trying to cut a deal with the entire Taliban at one go. This is not the case. For one thing, the Taliban is an umbrella group with many distinct factions whose goals do not necessarily all coincide. US strategy is to peel smaller groups off from their main affiliation, thus strengthening the government in such areas as it is possible, and laying the groundwork to convince more and more fighters it is time to come in.
Please note that Orbat.com is not passing judgment on the viability of this strategy. Personally, we feel the "buy 'em but good" approach works best. Let the Taliban take over the areas of their ethnic strength, separate and declare independent areas in the west and north that are anti-Taliban. Support these areas. And work with the Taliban in their areas. Money corrupts everyone. However "pure" the Taliban may consider themselves, once they get a billion or so every month from the US, and start enjoying the good life, they will become corrupted. If the US can accept the complete subjugation of women in Pakistan's tribal areas, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen, why should the US not do the same temporarily for women in Afghanistan.
Additional confirmation of dark energy BBC says a five year survey of 200,000 galaxies adds data supporting the idea of dark energy. along with dark matter, said dark energy makes up 96% of our universe. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-13462926
Meanwhile, the $2-billion particle detector, the most expensive physics experiment of its time, was successfully attached to the International Space Telescope, and turned on. The 7.6-ton lab has started to return torrents of data. Scientists are looking for a variety of things, including dark energy and anti-matter.
This experiment has been highly criticized because it has eaten up money for several other important, less costly experiments. Its kind of sad that we are willing to blow $10-billion/month on utter futility in Afghanistan, while saying we don't have money to find out more about our rfeality.
To the $2-billion must be added the cost of the shuttle mission, of course, possibly $500-million, but had the money been spent on several other experiments, those that require positioning in space would have incurred launch costs anyway.
When planned, the shuttle was supposed to cost $100-million/mission with a two-week turn-around. It ended up costing five times as much and a turnaround measured in months. We are told part of the problem was that with the cancellation of two USAF manned space programs including the Manned Orbital Laboratory (think anti-missile battle station), the shuttle had to be redesigned for USAF requirements. Ultimately unmanned launchers have turned out much less expensive, but honestly, where's the fun in that.

0100 GMT May 20, 2011

We apologize for lack of a proper update today. We spent so much time puzzling over the IMF ex-chief's thing that we ran out of time. We also should alert readers that summer college term starts in less than two weeks. Then the Editor will not have the time for these lengthy updates as he is taking ten credits this summer, including four in math, where the homework is always time consuming. Of course, schools will be closed, but Editor has to continue major updating of CWA 2011. People pay money for this product, even though it represents a tremendous drain on time without reimbursement, but when you have customers, doesn't matter how little you're charging, or if you're losing money, you have to do your best.

Goodbye, ex-IMF-Chief The New York Madam has said the ex-chief was her client twice in 2006 and that one escort refused to return to him because she said he was aggressive and rough.
Now, the judge doesn't have to allow evidence from other sources. But as happened to Mr. Clinton, if the judge does permit this, as a way for the prosecution or accuser to prove there is a certain pattern of behavior, than the ex-chief is a good as on his way to Sing Sing or wherever.
American juries are unlikely to be sympathetic to a decidedly non-family-values person who wanders around the world in $3000/night hotels and flies first-class. Of course, he would have paid the corporate rate for the hotel even if he was on private business, and that can be 40 to 60 percent below official rate. That's still $1200-$1800; moreover, the $3000 figure will be used by the prosecution and will stick. People are not particularly interested in the economics of hotel pricing.
Right after we wrote the above a story in the UK Telegraph based on AFP informs us that the hotel staff dispute the account of their colleague. A maid was already in the room cleaning up breakfast when the second maid (the accuser) arrived. The door was half open. The first maid told the accuser she could clean the room, whereas the accuser left to bring her cart and then returned. The first maid left.
Of course, the accuser's lawyer is building his case looking for a cash settlement. The burden of proof is much lower in a civil case. The thing we don't understand is how the accuser's lawyer plans to recover these hypothetical millions which personally we doubt the IMF ex-chief has. The person likely has no assets in America unless he solely owns his house in Washington DC. We can't see a French court honoring a US court's orders to freeze assets in France.
BTW, the ex-chief has says he will waive his immunity as a French citizen in relation to extradition. The French do not extradite their citizens, at least to the US. The ex-chief gave up his immunity to help his plea that bail can be safely granted.
It seems to us we have strayed a very long way from the question of diplomatic immunity This is the problem with us analyst types. Once we get going, we can't let a story go till the matter is resolved. We though the French goose was cooked. But these new developments are a wedge in the accuser's story, which till now has been unchallenged. If she has edited the story of her arrival in the room, what else might she be being not 100% truthful about?

On the aftermath of OBL's Departure from this Earth

Letter from Hale Cullom

It's hard for me to imagine that something was not known, simply, as you point out, because of the need to see to perimeter security for the PMA. Suppose for a second they did know...and knew about the CIA/SEAL advance teams stooging around the area etc. . .is it possible that OBL was simply a tethered goat left for the vulture to swoop down and grab some fine night?
It looks possible to me that the US and the Pakis made some kind of deal awhile back and that the Pakis, maybe even ISI, just gave up Osama and sold him.
Assume it for a second. Now, for obvious reasons, the Pakis can't simply hand him over -- wouldn't look good at home. But they sure could have put him in a position where he could not have effectively defended himself. Everyone is writing about how that compound he had was set up to keep people out. Works fine to keep them in too. Is it possible that whatever local element OBL was working with one day made it clear that OBL's leaving was not on the program?
I find the absence of much of a security element in OBL's compound kind of strange -- it looks like they had the room for some guard. How is it the worlds most sought after terrorist doesn't have a minimum of five or six gunboys on premises? His whole defense is his son and two couriers? That doesn't add up, unless the defense force got taken away or was other wise persona non grata with whoever provided lights, doctors and food. Now the press is full of claims that OBL was still very much in the game in terms of terror planning, and maybe he was, but the Abbottabad house looks less to me like Supreme Terror HQ and more like St. Helena.
Anyway, OBL's death looks convenient for everybody. Obama wants to leave Afghanistan. The Taliban wants us to leave, as do the Paks. Obama now has a great opportunity to declare victory and go home. Meanwhile the new generation of Al Qaeda types has got rid of the old man, the Egyptian element can completely take over, and both the Pakistanis and Al Qaeda probably don't mind having different leadership that is less well known in media terms and thus less of a political liability. A win-win all round.

0100 GMT May 19, 2011

US Watched OBL Compound with Reconsats, Stealth Drones Ad far as Editor is concerned, this story is getting tired and old fast. Nonetheless, since we have been covering it, with some degree of skepticism as to the US's account of how OBL was found, we are obliged to report US said it used reconnaissance satellites and stealth drones for months before raiding the place. The drones would presumably be the popularly named "Beast of Kandahar", which is a giant stealth drone, the RQ-170. There are rumors it has been spotted over North Korea and that it flies over Iran. Its wingspan is 15-meters, and it has a bat wing.
Among other capabilities the Beast is supposed to have electronics that shut down adversary communication networks using microwaves. If so, this is one formidable weapon.
Meanwhile, we learn that the Navy's EF-18G Growler will have the capability to remotely detonate IEDs, fry communication networks, and slip malicious code into enemy computers. http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/01/jammer-could-invade-nets/ Phew. we're told the Growler also does a mean Elvis imitation, and sings "America The Beautiful" while tap-dancing.
Now, this is donkeys years ago, so hopefully there are some senior readers who remember this incident. A Navy EA-6 Prowler accidentally switched on its jamming radar and shut down air traffic control between Norfolk, Virginia and New York City. Also we recall being told in the 1980s that when an E-3A was doing its thing you didn't want to be anywhere near it in your aircraft because it would fry you. So this ability to zap adversary communications is not a new capability, but we are assuming that you no longer need the equivalent of an airborne Mack truck to haul the gear around.
Gaffy Duck's wife and daughter abandon him and are sheltering in a refugee encampment in encampment, says UK Telegraph. Gaffy's eldest boy is also out of the country, ostensibly for medical treatment. all this adds to the continuing flow of Gaffy loyalists out of Libya.
Newt's aspirational days numbered? CNN at least seems to think so, and you have to make your own judgment on CNN's credibility on the matter because we haven't a clue. Apparently a $500,000 credit bill he ran up Tiffany's to buy jewelry for his wife Number 3 is causing a bit of a furor, as is a statement he made attacking Paul Ryan's healthcare plan as right-wing social engineering. Elsewhere we read that another Newt statement is not going over big. He was asked about his commitment to family values given his private life, and he said it was because he loved America so intensely. If that makes sense to you, you're a better person than the Editor.
In case you didn't have enough to keep you awake at night the Japanese say they have found 10 Jupiter sized planets that don't belong to a solar system. They're just sort of rolling around the place. Worse, there could be as many of these freebooters as there are stars. Isn't it already crazy enough in the universe without this added piece of paranoia?
For once a MSM headline we can agree with We are glad that UK Daily Mail has called a shovel a shovel in its headline on the AQ bombing in Pakistan that killed 80. It has a photograph of an injured boy, crying and bloody, being carried away from the scene. The Daily Mail headline reads: "So what did this boy have to do with America killing Bin Laden? Al Qaeda's idiots take revenge - by blowing up 80 Pakistanis". What indeed.
However complicit the Government of Pakistan may be in the business of terror, the Pakistani people do not deserve, in any degree, the great cruelty that is being perpetrated on them. By all means let us be angry at Pakistan and its role in global terror. But lets also remember that innocent Pakistanis are paying a greater price than anyone else. Now, that's exactly what the Pakistan Government says. But the Pakistan Government has no right to say that because it has helped create the terror. The Daily Mail, or you, or I can say it. Not the government.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1386578/Osama-bin-Laden-revenge-bombing-leaves-dozens-dead-Pakistan.html#ixzz1Mk43Sb00

Another attorney's observations on the IMF chief's case

(Being held till we get permission to publish)

We are sure readers already know that the IMF official's lawyers say consensual sex took place. He is on suicide watch not because he has shown any tendency, but because its routine in high-profile cases. Helps also in further breaking down the last vestiges of self-esteem a prisoner might have.
Among the mysteries to emerge yesterday: one report says the official went to the airport in a hotel limo. If so, first that indicates the government's story that they found the official when he called the hotel from the airport saying he'd left his cell phone behind is false. Second, its a bit strange he is alleged to have rushed out of the hotel, but he has lunch with his daughter and then returns to the hotel for his limp journey to the airport. So maybe he was rushing out because he was late, not because he was trying to abscond before he was discovered.
Another baffling inconsistency is that some accounts say the maid rushed to the front desk to tell what happened. So the official is so superfast he presumably has a shower, gets dressed, and hurtles out of the hotel before the maid gets from his room to the front desk?
Please read carefully the points made below by our reader, who has criminal justice experience. If you don't have time to read, here is the summary: its unlikely in the extreme the gent was set up; and even if the interaction was consensual, since the maid says it was not, the official is in Very Big Trouble.

Response from our attorney reader who has been commenting so far

Any conspiracy theory one could conjure is going to be implausible for all the reasons you mention, I agree. The bail system here is pretty much the way you described the Federal system. The "perp walk" has a true Anglo-Saxon feel to it, like trial by combat, or trial by drowning, or trial by hot iron. Americans simply have no idea how primitive they look to the rest of the world, at times. The irony of their hectoring the world on the way things should be done, from unregulated free markets, to banking to criminal justice is utterly lost on them. Mayor Bloomberg, who proves himself a bigger jackass by the day, is quoted as saying (when someone complained to him about the "perp" walk) words to the effect that "if you dont' want to be 'perp' walked, don't commit the crime..." Wow! Well, he's a casino banker -- er, I mean an investment banker, whose stock in trade is to make money without creating anything. Glad he's not on the bench.
The only thing going for him is that NYPD changed its story on the time of the incident when he came up with the alibi of being at lunch with his daughter at the time of the alleged incident. And there are plenty of witnesses to that lunch meeting. First they said the incident occurred at 1pm. When he came up with the alibi of being with his daughter in a restaurant at 1pm, the cops said, oops, we meant 12pm.
He was asked in an interview what factors would mitigate against him becoming president of France. He apparently said: my money, my love of women, and my Jewishness. Prophetic.
It would be amazing if he is convicted and has to spend 5-10 years in Sing Sing. THAT would be some kind of ending to an incredible story.
Editor's comment We read an interview with a former New York City law official. She noted that today every time someone opens a door in a hotel room, a computer records that. Plus, of course, there are plenty of cameras with time stamps recording things. The time discrepancy that the NYPD now says was a mistake on its part may not help the official because the prosecution can say he was so brazen he raped the maid and then took his time leisurely getting ready for his lunch date, confident that the woman would not talk. The maid can say she was scared and traumatized so it took her time to get herself together and inform management. Her attorney is already building up the theme of how frightened she was and how she's still terrified. We don't see the point of this: the case is with the police and court, why is he bringing more attention to someone who, if she was assaulted, does not need any attention from the prurient public? Unless the lawyer is planning a civil suit for damages. The civil suit can proceed, as far as we know, even if the official is acquitted in criminal court.

0100 GMT May 18, 2011

Letter from Professor Feisal Khan on Pakistan and OBL

Before you read this letter, we'd like to inform readers the writer is not a Pakistani apologist. He is an American professor. The letter:
You are completely wrong in thinking that the Pakistani Army knew that OBL was in Abbottabad. After discussing this with some extremely well placed people, who think the same way, I am convinced that it is incompetence and not malevolence at work here.
Just think about it. The CIA had an observation team in place for months and the ISI knew nothing about that. Apparently this observation team was also well-armed (obviously would have to be) and large enough to be a backup force for the SEAL team according to some accounts I’ve read. Do you seriously think that if the ISI knew that OBL was in Abbottabad, much less had put him there, they would have left him unobserved? That he would not have been under 24-7 watch? That these observers would not have bothered to report to their superiors that the Americans are attacking? That there would not have been dozens of ISI field agents investigating every house in the locality for ‘suspicious’ types—the CIA?
The one thing that S. Asia is NOT short of is manpower; competent manpower is another matter but not even S. Asians are that incompetent as to leave OBL unwatched if they knew he was there.
Editor's response First, we have to concede Professor Khan has a point. Just the other day, for example, the Indians dramatically presented a list of 50 suspected terrorists living in Pakistan that India wanted access to. Turns out one of the gentlemen is living peaceful just outside of Bombay which, at least last we knew, was in India and not in Pakistan. This is not a small error, because a list such as the Indians presented has to have been months in the making.
Second, we'd suggest that the US's account of how OBL was found to be right there with Grimm's Fairy Tales. US is under no imperative to tell the truth, it is under an imperative to protect its sources and therefore to misdirect the Pakistanis. The American story is so complicated it needs to be thrown out and a simpler version substituted. Someone within Pakistan intelligence or among the local populace, acting on his own for the sake of the reward, turned in OBL. Any direct surveillance of the house would have been last minute, a matter of a few days, and would have been effected by Pakistani mercenaries working for the Americans.
(Before you go "Oh My Aunt Fanny, the Horror, the Horror, please be assured the US is quite competent in this department. It uses Pakistani mercenaries to, for example, hunt the Taliban, particularly in Balochistan. Yes, claims like this will get Editor thrown off the CIA's Must Invite list, but you see, the Editor has not even ever been on it, even in the day CIA knew of his vague, rumored, existence as (a) a troublemaker, and (b) as a gadfly who made trouble for the heck of it.
Third, there's the problem of the ISI. Frankly, Editor is no expert on it. But he is familiar with CIA and ultimately, unchecked all intelligence agencies act like organizations that push their own interests. When you have powerful intelligence agencies, you can be reasonably sure they are not telling the government everything. As far as we know, no one has alleged that the Government of Pakistan knew that OBL was in Pakistan. But that's not saying much, because GOP does not run Pakistan.
Within an intel agency there are many departments and many sub-interests. On something as sensitive as OBL, the logical assumption is that very few people inside the agency knew, and this lack of knowledge could have gone up to the very top of ISI. Nothing new here, its Standard Operating Procedure.
A further complication. ISI has three types of personnel, and this we are saying from personal knowledge (though you didn't hear it from us). One type, believe it or not, is fiercely loyal to Pakistan and cannot be bought off. Yes yes, you will say if Editor believes this he is as innocent as a new born chicken or whatever, but this happens to be true (the patriot part, not the chicken part).
A second type of personnel are essentially loyal to Pakistan, but see no harm in making money or trading favors off/with Americans. Many of these will be the ISI's own men, acting on orders as double agents, and frequently getting a bit carried away.
The third type are personnel who are owned by the Americans. The ISI will be doing its best to track down these people and disposing of them.
But look at the confusion: at all levels you have people who have been TOLD by HQ to work with the Americans, and to give varying degrees of cooperation. Can ISI actually keep track of what all of these people are doing, and to what degree they are observing orders or to what degree they are doing their own thing? of course there isn't.
The ISI has been at war for 31 years now and in all that time it has never been held accountable by the elected authority. The longer the situation continues, the less likely it is that any one person or even several people, are in charge. Further, like all intel agencies, ISI will play its own game even with its superiors. You cannot say General X is head of Pakistan army, therefore he is in control of ISI. He is not. And be perfectly truthful, you cannot even say that the ISI chief is in complete control of the ISI, because he is not.
So what is the point of this convoluted analysis? It is to support Prof. Khan's point, and we accept it is perfectly conceivable that neither the Government of Pakistan, nor the Pakistan Army, nor even the head of the ISI knew about OBL.
But - this is the denouement - it is difficult to accept that incompetence was at play in this case. Why? Because the security of the Pakistan Military Academy's perimeter is critical. Pakistan has been under attack by its terrorists for some years now. PMA is a prime target. Even in peacetime, the local authorities and PMA security would know exactly who is living in which house a certain distance away.
We can accept that perhaps at times people were not as diligent as the should be in pursuit of the PMA's security. But you cannot postulate that year after year, the local police and the local army defaulted on their duty. Particularly during a war of terror.
Still further, South Asia is not like America where for all Editor knows, his neighbors on his dead-end street are operating a meth lab or printing counterfeit currency or running an escort agency or hiding Elvis. In South Asia the concept of privacy as exists in the US just does not exist. Everyone makes it their personal business to find out who everyone else is, unless they have been warned off. In which case everyone would talk about that - but amongst themselves and not necessarily to strangers or outsiders. But you and I would never come to know, because (a) the Pakistan press operates under very tight constraints; (b) you don't have American journalists who speak the lingo, look like the natives, and who are free to do investigative journalism.
BTW, this is pure speculation, but why would whoever was responsible put OBL where he was. Well, short of locating him inside a military base, this was a good compromise because he needed constant medical attention.
Last point We are NOT bashing Pakistan. We have said Pakistan must look out for itself and for its own security. We are saying that its very peculiar the US Government still hasn't figured out they are not going to get the better of the Pakistanis in this game. Forget OBL, who from what we are told was of little practical importance. The Taliban is part and parcel of Pakistani security policy. The Taliban is killing Americans. The Government of the United States is engaging in treason by aiding and abetting Pakistan.
The problem is at the American end, not at the Pakistani end. We absolutely do NOT want the US to "punish" Pakistan, because while claiming to help Pakistan the US has punished Pakistan to the point the existence of the country is in doubt. Further punishment will push Pakistan over the edge. And you know what? The Americans will go home. The Indians will be punished for the next fifty years, not to speak of ordinary Pakistanis, who like ordinary folk anywhere (and this we can personally testify to) just want a quiet life with their children doing better than they did. .
What is we want America to do? From all viewpoints - Americans, Pakistani, Indian, we want America to disengage from Pakistan and leave Pakistan alone. On its own Pakistan has a chance. With America "helping", Pakistan is doomed.

The IMF Chief does have diplomatic immunity

We wish the MSM at least would do its research and explain this to us. After all, what's the point of centi-million dollar organizations with specialists and fact checkers and informed journalists and talking heads if we, at Orbat.com, have to go find out the most basic things by ourselves.
Here is a quote from the lawyer we discussed the matter with yesterday: "Art. 6 of the 1947 Convention on the Privileges and Immunities of the Specialized Agencies provides absolute immunity for people like the IMF Chief. There is the 1946 Convention on the Privileges and Immunities of the United Nations which would have preceded the 1947 Convention. The US Congress would have ratified both these conventions and then codified their key elements, thereby making them Federal law in the US.
It's awfully cute that the NYPD (New York Police Department) thinks it determines whether someone has diplomatic immunity or not. But this is a matter of Federal preemption and NY law is superseded by Federal law. NY law cannot override Acts of Congress on this issue. And we were on the right course in thinking that this was not a matter of France and the US. It was a matter of the IMF and the US. And only the IMF can waive immunity. We were also on the right track in thinking that the IMF Chief's own waiver was of no legal effect, but made it that much easier for the IMF to waive his immunity (or, perhaps, not even invoke it in the first place).
(Indeed, it has been suggested the IMF actually has Super Immunity in that he cannot be arrested in ANY country that has subscribed to the relevant conventions.)
A glaring inconsistency in the police account of the story The police account, of course, is based on what the police were told: they hadn't at that point had the opportunity to investigate.
At a specific time, say 1200 as a reference point, the alleged perp is sans culottes and attempts to sexually assault the maid. She fights him off. Alleged perp then calmly gets dressed, checks out, and proceeds to JFK sans his cell phone. (In this day and age it is worse to be sans cell-phone than sans culottes. Physical nakedness is insignificant compared to the humiliation of cell-phone nakedness.)
What is the maid doing after she has fought off the alleged perp? Why has she not immediately alerted her supervisor, someone?
Now, we know what some people are going to say. The maid was in shock, she was intimidated by the august position of the assailant, she blamed herself for putting herself in that position, she was frightened for her job, etc etc etc. That accounts for the delay. The problem with this explanation is that it is an insult to modern day women, where an attempted sexual assault so confuses their thinking process they are paralyzed. The alleged perp has no power over the maid. The Washington Post says he and his family keep so low a profile in Washington that few recognize him. The maid is 32 years old, presumably has experience in working in hotels, and presumably is no stranger to dealing with men. If the hotel fired her for reporting she'd been assaulted, the hotel company would be in so much pain it would regret its action forever and a day.
And by the way, the maid was African. If we go by the African ladies Editor knows and loves, the alleged perp is lucky to have gotten away with his vitals intact.
There is a further question. The alleged perp says at the time of the alleged assault he was having lunch with his daughter in a restaurant, and there are witnesses. Well, if alleged perp can come up with even one witness, say the maitre de, the case is not just dead, but NYPD is in the position of explaining why it has arrested someone without investigation.
Readers may ask: why are we spending so much time on something so insignificant? Its really not our fault. Media said the man had no diplomatic immunity, and once you present a puzzle like that to us, like good hound dogs we don't rest till we get to the truth.

0100 GMT May 17, 2011

Dissension in the Syrian Army? There are reports and a couple of eyewitness accounts that suggest Syrian troops have mutinied in some units. The soldiers say, however, that the officers remain loyal to the regime. Not only will they not mutiny, they are killing soldiers who do.
Until more details emerge, we'd caution against taking these reports too seriously. In any army you are going to have trouble when soldiers are told to fire on civilians, especially if those civilians are from the soldiers' hometowns and guilty only of asking for freedom. The question is not "are soldiers deserting" because surely some/many are. The question is "do these desertions materially affect the power of the army?"
British Government wants out of Afghan War British defense planners have been told to draw up withdrawal plans that require the departure of hundreds of soldiers within weeks. US military has warned UK that if the British get into trouble by withdrawing too early, US wont bail them out and it would strain US-UK ties.
Now, honestly, if my coalition partner started putting that kind of pressure on me, completely disregarding how vulnerable my continued support of the war makes me at home, I would withdraw troops so fast they couldn't get into trouble.
Do not the Americans realize that Britain has a parliamentary form of government, and that the government can fall at any time, particularly one that depends on a coalition? Moreover don't they appreciate that there is a limit to how long you can tell your voters "we know better than you what we're doing, so shut up"? Do they understand that in Britain the voters are not passive as they are in America on the subject of security?
Look, folks: three of five Brits say they don't even understand what their government's aims in Afghanistan are. Is it because your average Brit is, let us politely say, "slow"? No, its because their government CANNOT make a case to stay on in Afghanistan. And truthfully, neither can the Americans. Can you blame the British government for wanting out?
IMF Chief's Case Here's the kind of analysis that drives us to wanting to punish analysts with lashes of limp noodles. In a video on CNN, we see and hear the noted legal analyst Jeffery Toobin say the IMF director does not have diplomatic immunity. The IMF says it can waive diplomatic immunity. Dies that suggest IMF believes the gentleman does not have immunity? Other learned persons have said IMF chief is not entitled to immunity because he does not represent a government. So can we take it people like the UN Secretary General and Director General of NATO and so on don't have immunity?
Further, Mr. Toobin says immunity does not apply in crimes of violence. Oh dear. That means US had no diplomatic standing when it insisted on the release of Raymond Davis, even though he was accused and then charged with murder, because the US said he had immunity. So are we to infer the US Government had no idea what it was talking about, and there is no court or lawyer in Pakistan smart enough to say since this was murder immunity did not apply?
Mr. Toobin, you are required to turn yourself in to Orbat.com so you can be lashed. Not to worry, your health is safe: we use only organic spaghetti. Plus after the Editor finishes dinner its unlikely there will be a single strand left to lash you with.
Comments from a New York attorney on the IMF chief's case The man has to have diplomatic immunity. UN Secretary General, NATO Secretary General, WHO Director General, UNHCR head, virtually everyone at that rank has immunity. It doesn't make sense that the IMF Managing Director does not.
So waiver by the IMF is probably what happened. I would think in the case of a UN Under Secretary General, for example, the SG could waive immunity. Conversely, he might refuse to waive thereby forcing the host country to revoke acceptance of the credentials and then expel the person to his home country. Alternatively SG could get a commitment from the accused's home country to prosecute and then refuse to waive thereby causing an expulsion whereupon the accused would be arrested upon arrival at his home country.
So, whatever the waiver procedure is, it would seem there has been a waiver here.
Anyway, he says he was having lunch with his daughter at the time. Pretty good alibi. Also, I find it hard to visualize a porky 62 year old chasing a spry 32 year old and managing to do anything to her without getting a heart attack. The cops have got it wrong enough times, they could be wrong here. But, who knows. Maybe the case is a lock.
As for withdrawing charges and compounding offences (in India certain charges can be withdrawn after a case is registered if the accuser wants - we asked if the Americans have such a system), I don't think we have those in New York. She can withdraw the charges, but the real issue is whether she will testify. If she refuses to testify, they will have to drop the case. It's a classic "he said she said" case.
But the jury would have to believe her version at its core. The circumstantial evidence surrounding the events would be mere filler. On the other hand if there is DNA evidence, then its a different story. That would establish physical contact, which would make her version far more credible. He could claim it was consensual. But if she says otherwise, that may not be convincing.
I suppose NYPD is doing what it is required to do when there is a serious allegation like this, but the consensus in my office is that the whole thing is fishy, and that Dominique was set up. Still the immunity question remains a mystery.
Editor's comments The IMF head has not claimed immunity, according to the media. This might be so because he knows he will be in big trouble in France - he has a previous record of unacceptable behavior toward women, and the French judges these days are very keen to go after the biggest fish. Perhaps he thought this matter would be better faced in a US court.
Conversely, if he has a genuine alibi, he may have decided to waive immunity precisely because he is confident of being cleared.
Readers unfamiliar with domestic French politics may like to know that this official will run against President Sarkozy in the next election and has an excellent chance of winning. So there may be an incentive for someone to set him up. On the other hand, setting up someone is not easily done. Someone would have to get to the maid, make it worthwhile for her to tell a story, coach her on it, and hope it goes as planned. The official is free to hire private detectives to check on the maid. If any indication emerges she has lied, she will be in very serious trouble.

0100 GMT May 16, 2011

US and Pakistan You were expecting some action against Pakistan? Here's an example of the action: "U.S. Senator John Kerry met Pakistan's powerful army chief on Sunday to press for answers on Osama bin Laden, but he will also be keen to ensure Pakistani anger over the U.S. raid does not subvert security cooperation."
We warned readers nothing would change.
US says OBL received visitors from the Taliban and wealthy Arabs at his house in Abbottabad. This makes it even less likely that the Pakistani intelligence was unaware of OBL's location. Also, may we expect these wealthy Arabs are indicted and warrants put out for their arrest? You can answer that question if you answer this question: May we expect Editor will have a date this Saturday?
May we ask the American people why they put up with this double dealing on the part of their government? Its been going since from before 9/11. The saudis in particular are not to be touched, no matter what they do.
Trouble for Iran President The supreme spiritual leader wants the president's closest confident to quit his job in the government. The president refuses. This comes days after the president fired his intelligence chief for tapping his confidant's phone. The supreme leader made the president reinstate the man. This is a new set of troubles and apparently the balance of power is shifting against the president.
We had no clue as to what was going on in this power struggle until someone explained that actually the president is quite secular, and has been challenging religious authority in ways subtle and not so subtle. The religious authority is fighting back, and so far seems to be winning. Rumors are the Republican Guard, which is the basis of the president's power, is backing the religious authority.
Blackwater Xe gets $529-million UAE contract to train an 800 man mercenary battalion that "would be used to thwart internal revolt, conduct special operations and defend oil pipelines and skyscrapers from attack." The company used to be called Blackwater, then was renamed Xe. The company is now called Reflex Responses, or at least the UAE venture is handled by an Erik Prince company called that. (Report from New York Times.)
You know, you gotta wonder what sort of legitimacy these regimes have that they have to layout half a billion smackers to protect themselves from their people.
You also have to wonder if the US isn't making a blunder on continuing to protect oil monarchies. Yes, of course the fall of these monarchies will lead to instability. But why is it US thinks freedom is okay except for countries where it has critical interests? You are either for freedom, or not.
Not that we are likely to run into Mr. Prince, but we sure would like to ask him what kind of wimpy name is "Reflex Responses"? Clear implication you are not in charge, but reacting reflexively to those who take the initiative.
Libyan rebels receive training, but from whom? A UK Telegraph of just one paragraph says Libyan rebels in the western mountains are receiving military training, but does not say from whom. The short report says that NATO has kept loyalist forces from attacking the rebels in this part of the country.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/libya-video/8514692/Libyan-rebels-in-training.html
Green energy also has environmental costs: from reader Marcopetroni In order to obtain the capacity that would be generated by three or four nuclear power stations, we (in Italy) would have to build thousands of wind turbines at sites all over the country — in Italy today wind power is the only option that can compete with nuclear in quantitative and economic terms. The figures speak for themselves: the four 1600MW nuclear power stations, which were planned by the government would have produced 44 TWh per year, the equivalent of 15 percent of the electricity generated in Italy.
To generate the same quantity of energy with wind power, we would have to construct 12,000 turbines: bear in mind that these are 100-metre high towers, equipped with blades that are 75-metres in diameter, each requiring 1,100 tonnes of concrete steel and aluminum. The area required is 2400-square-kilometers.

0100 GMT May 15, 2011

Defaulting on the US Debt we have suggested this is a sensible course, if coupled with a balanced budget in the future, because there is no way America is going to pay down its national debt. Our reasoning ahs been that since we have built up this debt, particularly in the last 30 years, it is not right to pass it on to our children.
A big argument against default is that the economy will be trashed. we'd given examples in the past, such as Brazil, where default cost 2-3 years of growth. This seemed to us a very small price to pay.
Now if we are to believe calculation by Reuters, a debt default will have absolutely insignificant consequences: 1% GDP growth and 640,000 jobs. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/13/us-usa-budget-default-idUSTRE74C4TW20110513
Our sole problem with this article is: is Reuters quantifying the consequences of a total default or just a delay in raising the debt ceiling?
You cant get me, says Gaffy Duck taunting NATO. NATO can answer: that's fine, because we aren't trying to get you. Of course, anyone who really believe that should be subject to serious intelligence tests such as adding 1 and -1. Nonetheless, sooner or later, one way or the other, Gaffy Duck will be history. We personally think it will take time, but so what.
Gaffy Duck said, according to Reuters, "Even if you kill the body you will not be able to kill the soul that lives in the hearts of millions". Okay, we at least would settle for killing your body. Your soul that lives in millions is not of any concern. BTW, Gaffmiester, old buddy, old pal, we thought only God is the soul that can live in the hearts of millions. Or are we being theologically wrong? Or are you saying you are God? If the latter, that's fine. Editor has always thought he is Queen of England. Each to his own craziness. The difference being Editor being nuts is not interfering with anyone's live. Gaffy's craziness is killing people.
Issuing execution warrants against dictators An academic (who is a lady, believe it or not), says when a dictator starts killing his people, the moral thing to do is to issue a warrant of execution, find him, and kill him. Why make the dictator's people suffer, she asks, by attacking the country.
She is cognizant that issuing warrants of execution without a fair trial goes against the very spirit of democracy. But, she would argue, killing the dictator's people while seeking to bring him to justice is also immoral (our words). When faced with two immoralities, clearly the one that involves the killing of one person is better than the the other which involves killing many people.
Further, Editor at least is unclear why you need a fair trial to get rid of people like Gaffy Duck and Bashed Brains (our loveable ruler of Syria). Is there any doubt they are killing their own people?
Israel may step up deployment of Arrow 3 ABM The first battery of this ABM interceptor (50 to 100 missiles per battery) is supposed to enter service in 2014-15, but Aviation Week says this deployment may be accelerated. Currently Israel has three batteries of Arrow 2. The Arrow 2 Block 5 which is under test will be integrated with the Arrow 3 battery or batteries. The system is designed to protect against "dozens" of missile launches, including 3000-km range missiles. The Arrow 21 can intercept multiple-warhead missiles. Each mobile Arrow launcher holds 6 rounds, and looks like the Russian SAM-10/12 system.
For last ditch defense Israel is likely to use its "David's Sling" ABM system under development for shorter range missiles.
Meanwhile, Israel has two "Iron Dome" batteries in operation for defense against mortar shells and rockets fired from Palestine. Very recently the system shot down 12 rockets out of 13 launched from Gaza.
All Israeli ABM work involved US contractors and US dollars, so all these systems are really joint.
From Sparsh Amin There is a saying that Pakistan claiming it is the victim of terrorism is like the sucide bomber claiming he is the victim of his explosives.

0100 GMT May 14, 2011

Three Klasse Klowne Awardes: Pakistan, US, and India

First Awarde These days we rarely award this coveted Awarde because there is so much extreme foolishness going on that's its hard to choose.
But we definitely felt a statement from the Government of Pakistan deserves a KKA. This statement has been repeated several times, and yet the Government of Pakistan doesn't see the complete absurdity of its words. When accused of harboring terrorists, Pakistan says "No country has suffered more than us, with our 30,000 dead due to terrorism."
Er - maybe. But every single terrorist act in Pakistan has been done by terrorist groups who have slipped the control of the biggest terrorist agency in the world, the so called Inter Services Intelligence and who have turned on their masters. This is called blowback. It is 100% internal terrorism by Pakistan's own renegade terrorists.
When your own attack dogs turn on you, you can't claim the status of victim. When you persist in keeping attack dogs despite their turning on you, you can't claim to be fighting terrorism. When you regularly acquire and train new attack dogs, and you are so accused, you cannot say "we are the worst victims of these dogs" on an attempt to get sympathy.
This Pakistan Government meme is so old, so tired, and so overworked, that it has long ago collapsed in the middle of the road like a spavined donkey. Everyone sees the collapsed donkey, but the Government of Pakistan insists that it is a fine racehorse that will win the next Ascot or Preakness.
The next Awarde must go to the US Government which has a pathological, degenerate, and truly sick co-dependency with the Government of Pakistan. For ten years the US has given Pakistan stern lectures on the need for that country to stop supporting terrorism, and then the US continues supporting Pakistan. The theory is that it's better to have the Pakistanis in the tent with you, urinating out, rather than have them outside the tent, urinating out. (We believe this expression, in less elegant form, was a favorite of the late President Lyndon Johnson, who we at least believe was a remarkable politician and leader.)
But Pakistan is inside the tent and urinating on the United States. For this privilege, America has made Pakistan its Best Friend Forever. America is spending $10-billion/month and suffering casualties every month because of Pakistan. By what logic does the US say Pakistan is a valued ally in the war on terrorism when Pakistan is 90% of the problem?
Now, the Editor is from Iowa and what does he know. But isn't there a law that prohibits the American government from allying with the enemy? In Afghanistan the enemy is said to be the Taliban. No, no, and no. The enemy is the people who create, host, train, and pay the Taliban.
Imagine this was Indochina Two, and the governments of President Kennedy, Johnson, and Nixon declare the North Vietnamese to be allies, and send money to Hanoi, so that the North Vietnamese can train more soldiers to kill Americans. Are we being naive in thinking this country would revolt and hang its leaders?
The Government of the United States, when it comes to Pakistan, is what South Asians call "a gone case". A gone case is someone who is such a lunatic that there is no hope he will get well - ever. You cannot expect rationality from the US Government regarding Pakistan. The man the US has been hunting for 13 years was found, the other day, in Pakistan. Turns out he has been living there for at least seven of those years. On the one hand the US Government pretends to be tough. It is demanding "answers". But on the other hand, in exactly the same breath the US Government says it is continuing to work with Pakistan.
Psychosis is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. For almost ten years the US has been using the carrot and stick approach to get Pakistan to abandon terrorism. It has failed year after year after year after year. Its solution? More of the same.
Editor would like to ask Muh Feller Markins (My fellow Americans, in Lyndon Johnson speak): do you feel comfortable being governed by a bunch of looney tuners? Do you feel comfortable giving them 22% or whatever of the GDP to spend? Can you give this lot complete power over your life, your liberty, and your right to pursue happiness and still sleep soundly at night? Are you secure knowing this bunch of lunatics can, even with all the warhead drawdowns, in 30-minutes destroy civilization as we know it?
Readers can say: "Now, Editor, you are overstating your case. Agreed the American Government is definitely mad re Pakistan, but there's lots more to the Government than just that." But what if the Government is actually as mad as a rabid dog and has simply managed to convince its people, using the vast power of the media and the elite, to make us believe it is a loveable, friendly pooch that just wants to sit in our lap? Suppose you have a homicidal maniac who has stabbed five people in down-town Washington. Do we let him continue peacefully on his way, rationalizing "Well, he stabbed people in Washington, but he hasn't stabbed anyone in New York and Chicago, and in Los Angeles"? Of course not. You stop the man right there in his tracks. But we the people are making that excuse: "The government is crazy re Pakistan, but otherwise its sane."
Now, Editor, readers will say, you are being paranoid. Editor is being paranoid? Every day the US Government demonstrates again how it pays and allies with a state that is our enemy not just in rhetoric, but in killing our soldiers. If we don't get alarmed and paranoid, a future generation could accuse us of being as Looney Tuners as the Government. We should be very afraid, not making excuses for the Government.
And a third Awarde must go to the Government of India. India is a victim of Pakistani terrorism. Pakistani terrorists have killed more Indian servicemen and civilians than have killed Americans. The US Government 100% supports the Pakistanis. Yet the Government of India has convinced itself that America is India's special friend.
India ns are very quick to point fingers and say that the Pakistani elite has sold out its people. But hasn't the Indian elite done exactly the same and sold out the Indian people?
So you have a curious parallelism. Pakistan is at war with the US, and Americans convince themselves Pakistan is an ally. India is at war against Pakistani terrorism which is directly enabled by the US Government, and we Indians have convinced ourselves the US is not just our friend, but our special friend.
The result is a macabre dance of three sets of lunatics, Pakistani, American, and Indians.
Shouldn't we, the people of these three countries, be locking our masters in an insane asylum, where they are free to mutilate and torture each other, while the rest of us simply get on with our lives?

0100 GMT May 13, 2011

Plot of US Helicopters Route

Major AH Amin

(Editor's note: Maj. Amin has compiled this route based on his contacts and other information such as has appeared in bits and pieces in the Pakistan press. If more information becomes available, this plot might chance. The point where US helicopters stopped for 40-minutes is - if we have understood Brig. Samson (Pakistan Army, Retired) correctly - a place called Kala Dhaka. Brig. Samson says that from oil on the ground at least two helicopters stopped here, and likely refueled.)

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Libya Gaffy Duck appeared on TV after a lengthy absence, worse luck. NATO sent four missiles into his compound after his appearance as if to say "Nothing personal, ots just business".
Rebels appear to have captured the airport at Misurata. Loyalists say the rebels haven't, but loyalists ruined their credibility by saying the port was in loyalist hands, which it has never been. Some reports say the rebels have now advanced 60-kilometers west of Misurata, but please treat such reports with great caution.
US has thoughtfully donated $25-million to the rebels, including MREs and boots. We suppose the rebels can throw MREs and boots at the loyalist troops.
Secretary Gates says the US has now spent $750-million for the Libya operations.
Downed US helicopter technology is not secret say experts quoted by Defense News and China would gain little from examining the remains. http://defensenews.com/story.php?i=6485869&c=AME&s=TOP
Meanwhile, for more details on the MH-60M helicopters entering SF service with the US Army, read http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story.jsp?id=news/asd/2011/05/12/18.xml&headline=Indications%20Of%20Hawk%20Works%20In%20Stealth%20Helo&channel=defense
Fukushima Number 1 did partially melt down Engineers entered the reactor and found that the top five-feet of the 13-foot fuel rods have melted. Now there is concerned the meltdown might have leaked radioactivity to the sea. workers are examining and sealing with concrete potential leaks. Simultaneously, restrictions on drinking water in the area have been lifted as radiation has fallen to safe levels.
Reader Sparsh Amin writes with a correction. There was no Operation Geronimo. Geronimo was the target, i.e., OBL. The operation was Neptune Spear.
At which point Editor has to look askance at American planners. Neptune Spear? Fellers, if you don't know the difference between a spear and a trident, it must just be sheer luck that you got OBL.
Hint: a spear has a single point. A trident has three. No one says "Oh, there's the Devil running around with his spear." Puleese!
Letter from Eric Cox I have never met an American who thought America was predestined to rule the world. I have met and read many Americans who believe that America has a special role in the world, c.f. Mr. Reagan's "Shining City on a Hill" speech as an example. You experience may admittedly be different.
There actually was a strong cultural bias among the Japanese troops of WWII against surrender. Remember the "Banzai" charges into the face of certain death and the mass suicides of civilians on occasion. You are probably correct that the Americans were less likely to allow Japanese combatants to surrender than they were German combatants. You could also concur that the battles in the Pacific were a lot more up close and personal than the battles in Europe: the Japanese rarely had the opportunity to withdraw and regroup as the Germans could.
Editor's comment Mr. Cox has a valid point about Americans. Editor's problem is he meets few real Americans. The ones he meets are Establishment types. America Rules and that sort of thing.

0100 GMT May 12, 2011

A Letter to the Family of Mr. Osama Bin Laden

Dear Family, we've duly noted your demands for an explanation of why an unarmed man was shot in cold blood and for proof that he is dead. If you don't mind our saying this tactfully, you are terribly confused. You are not dealing with the Wimpy Euros who can be made to feel guilty and defensive and responsible if a Euro-made truck runs over, say, an ant in the Congo. Americans are quite different.
By nature they are a savage race much devoted to the blood-sport of war. Always providing that the average citizen doesn't have to shed his blood, of course. But while you may perceive this as a weakness, it makes them more dangerous than they might otherwise be. A soldier who actually fights can feel compassion for his enemy. Spectators who watch from the sideline, risking neither their comfort or their lives, are pitiless.
Worse, while you like to think of yourselves as religious and the Americans are irreligious, Americans are deeply religious. Not in the sense of agreeing to pray to one particular god, but in the sense they believe it is their destiny, sanctioned by divine power, to rule the world. True, some Americans have started having doubts in view of America's economic decline. But these doubts are indulgences when the bullets are not flying and blood is not flowing. Once the action begins, the American people get really excited and really involved.
It is this divine right thing that makes Americans so retributive. This retribution thing is so buried in the American psyche that they happily and boastfully have the most punitive and cruelest criminal justice system in the world. In America, even fellow citizens who transgress on small things are merciless locked up and the key thrown away.
Now, your family member Mr. Bin Laden presents a difficult case for anyone who would argue for compassion and mercy for Osama. You see, Osama was not particularly compassionate or merciful towards those he deemed must die in furtherance of his political aims. We can argue about his influence on Al Qaeda and what role he may or may not have played in 9/11. But he was the pope of a church of death. His apostles and his disciples killed civilians - men, women and children - whose only fault was to be alive. It mattered not to your family member if the people who died were Muslim or Christian or of no belief. If it furthered his purposes, people had to die without trial as to their innocence or guilt.
So let us just say that when Americans think of Osama, they do not feel an urgent, emotional need to hold him and hug him and kiss him and make him theirs forever. If Americans have any regret that Osama was killed in cold blood, their regret is solely that they personally never had the opportunity to shoot him down and that he got a clean death.
Another problem. Your family member, Osama, clearly said time and again that he would not be taken alive. He spoke of suicide vests and taking his hunters with him. First, soldiers are not police; second, even American police are trained to shoot first and ask questions later. They are permitted the widest possible latitude of any democratic nation's police in executing suspects. All they have to say is they, the police, feared for their lives. Since you really are not familiar with America, let us tell you one of their favorite excuses: "the suspect's hand moved toward his waist as if reaching for a gun. We feared for our lives."
Given Osama's announced intentions, why do you think that the American soldiers (they were navy, but lets not get technical) shot first? A soldier has a tenth of a second to make a determination as to his adversary's intentions. He has no time to really even spare the second needed to quickly scan his target to see if his target is wearing a suicide vest. Still further, because one helicopter crashed, the Americans had to abort their double prong assault, from the top and the bottom. They came in only from the bottom, and no matter how fast they moved, your family member would have had the time he needed to activate explosives.
Why on earth do you expect the Americans to give Osama, of all people, the dispensation even American police would never give a man tagged as armed and dangerous?
And what on earth do you expect will come of your demands? That someone will open an inquiry on the manner in which Osama died? May we expect you to hold inquiries into each and every innocent your family member killed, or had killed, or planned for to be killed by his acolytes?
Further, if you really think the Americans of all people will open an enquiry given that your family member had said he would not be taken alive, you need help. The red and blue pills will take care of your delusions.
You may want to read up on your American history. The attack on pearl Harbor was scarcely unprovoked. America had put embargos against the Japanese - rightly, in our mind, given the mind-numbing atrocities Japan was committing in China,. An embargo on your vital trade is a perfectly legitimate reason to go to war. But the American people believed that the Japanese were guilty of treachery, and they made up their mind the Japanese must die. You might like to look for studies on what percentage of Japanese soldiers were taken alive as opposed to, say, German. Of course, the Americans will have you believe the Japanese refused to surrender even when defeated. Chuckle chuckle nudge nudge. Who was left to contradict the Americans when dead men tell no tales?
Now, are you surprised that the Americans believe Osama was guilty of treachery? He was not even a state actor. He was a renegade with a private agenda. The US did nothing to him. This business of punishing Americans because they polluted the holy sands of your home country is total, complete, bosh. Osama, your government invited the Americans in when Saddam invaded Kuwait. The reason you picked on the Americans is because you knew you never had a chance against your own government. You were way too frightened to take on your own government because you know they would never have shot you so quickly and so cleanly that it may be doubted your brain even had a chance to register pain. They would have taken you alive, and then spent their hours and days and months happily torturing you, before coming up with a creative and enjoyable (for them) way for you to die.
How strange that you, who had so much contempt for western civilization, and who did his pathetic best to destroy that civilization, now have relatives who demand the rights that come with being a member if western civilization.
Dear relatives, and dear Osama in the Super Hot Place - Editor says Osama went to no heaven with virgins, he went to hell because he was the spawn of the Devil - please don't waste your time with these stupid games. You will get no satisfaction from the Americans. You may instead get a warrant for your arrest for questioning on what part you played in your relative's terror network, or what you knew, or what you should have known.
(This "should have known" business really cracks us up: its a prime example of the Americans' determination to get someone they don't like or have a quarrel with into trouble. Having to prove that there is no way you could have known is like being treated as guilty and required to prove your innocence.
Which, when you come to think of it, was pretty much the way Osama operated. Except there was nothing you could do to prove your innocence to Osama. He never gave you a chance to plead innocent. He predetermined you were guilty and deserving of death, even if he had no idea you existed.
And isn't the oddest thing that the Americans too never gave your relative a chance to plead his innocence or have his day in court. The Americans made up their minds about your relative, and they executed him. And you can hardly complain, seeing how many time your relative publically rejoiced in killing Americans and westerners, and how he kept saying: "More of the same is coming to you, you scum.
On a personal note, Editor has one complaint about the US Government. The USG let Osama off too easy...hang in there for a minute, folks, someone is knocking furiously on the downstairs door...be back in a jif."
Editor is back. That was the Devil and was he madder than a wet hen. He said Editor has no right to call Osama the Devil's Spawn because even he, the Devil, has standards, and Osama was way, way, way below the Devil's standards. We apologized to the Old Boy and asked if he couldn't get a stronger mouthwash. Fire and brimstone just don't smell good together, you know. Devil reminded Editor of the seat reservation Editor holds in the Devil's living room, and suggested insulting him, the Devil, was probably not a good idea.
What to do...when one is is a blogger its impossible to keep everyone happy.

0100 GMT May 11, 2011

Tripoli strikes After particularly heavy air and missile strikes Monday, NATO said it did not know if Gaffy was alive or dead, and nor did it particularly care. We are not targeting individuals etc. etc. Talk about hogwash.
At last, some news of Libya New York Times says that several hundred rebels have managed to advance a few kilometers to the west of Misurata. They have stopped, but expect to resume their advance. Okay, so this is a few kilometers, but it appears to be a deliberate advance, not the wild too and fro we have seen before. The rebels seem better organized. Lets see now if they can hold on to their gain and expand them.
East of Misurata is still firmly in loyalist hands, though NATO air attacks are grinding away loyalist forces. At least for one day the loyalists launched no rocket strikes on Misurata and the port remained open. This too is progress. The real test will be to either force the loyalists to withdraw from the airport using either airpower or rebels attacks. That should push loyalist forces out of artillery range of the city.
UK Daily Mail puts the rebels at 25-km west of Misurata.
RAF has attacked 40 Scud missile containers and several GRAD rocket launchers. Also, rebels at Zintan in the extreme west say NATO bombed loyalist arms depots four Times says.
In the east, rebel forces killed 36 loyalists and destroyed 10 vehicles for the loss of six killed. They then withdrew, NYT says presumably on NATO orders to permit airstrikes.
US Afghanistan withdrawal schedule plans for 5000 troops to leave in July, 5000 more by year end, and 60,000 more by 2014. Remaining will be 30,000 troops including 10,000 SF soldiers. The latter will focus on killing Taliban/AQ and the rest will support Afghan forces.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/8505100/US-to-withdraw-70000-troops-from-Afghanistan-in-next-three-years-in-favour-of-special-forces.html
NASA backs mission to float a boat on Titan's methane lakes The unpowered boat will drift for three months while it takes deoth readings and samples the chemical brew. Three companies have been awarded $3-million to develop concepts by 2012. The winner will get $425-million to build the boat lander.
Experiments will be powered by a source of plutonium that will generate power through decay. we gather, though, that the project has to outcompete two other planetary exploration proposals. http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn20459-nasa-floats-titan-boat-concept.html

0100 GMT May 10, 2011

Taliban attack on Kandahar Fails After two days, the assault by 100 Taliban appears a complete failure. From what we can tell, this was the usual half-baked Taliban attack. If 100 is the best they can do against their most important target, we have to start rethinking the military threat these jokers pose (as opposed to police and political threats).
At the same time, as Bill Roggio notes, the psychological effect is another matter. Read http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2011/05/taliban_assault_government_bui.php
German Trade Germany exported $142-billion worth of goods/services in March 2011, an all-time record since records have been kept. The surplus was $27-billion. Please to note that Germany has a GDP of ~$3.8-trillion, a fourth that of the US. That $27-billion surplus is equivalent to a one month US surplus of $100-billion. Moreover, Germany has a higher wage cost structure than does the US.
US companies could learn something from the Germans. We doubt they will. They'd rather complain about the high wages they have to pay.
A very simplistic but quickly read article on how Germany does it is at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13335943
Including South Africa in the BRIC Bloc Given South Africa's GDP is ~$300-billion, whereas the BRIC nations each have more than a trillion dollars, we're wondering why its become fashionable to include South Africa in the BRIC block, called BRICS. We suspect Political Correctness is at work.
Talking With Dolphins Please notice the "with". For about 15-years we have been able to talk to dolphins, who can recognize 100 words and even the correct placing of words in sentences. Now, says New Scientist, scientists are working on two-way communication using AI and other new technology. Read about it in http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21028115.400-talk-with-a-dolphin-via-underwater-translation-machine.html
When this 2-way thing succeeds, we wonder if the dolphins will have any advice on the deficit and the national debt. They are more likely to have something productive to say on the subject than the "humans" that govern this country. (Yes, please fell free to think "Austin Powers".)

The Pakistan Air Force and Operation Geronimo

Forwarded by Major A.H. Amin (Pakistan Army, Retired). He received it from a former PAF officer he trusts.

· With the latest PAF press briefing whose distorted version appeared today on TV channels and in the electronic edition of various newspapers including The News http://www.thenews.com.pk/NewsDetail.aspx?ID=15235, PAF's case has been totally messed up and it has been put on the back foot unnecessarily. It was simply bad PR; an would have been far better, with no possibility of laymen's interpretation and distortion of facts by uninformed journalists about matters technical. Like most of you, I have been following the matter over the past few days and would like to offer the factual story as far as is known, without trying to cover any mistakes or offering lame excuses on behalf of what was, formerly, my parent service.

· On the night of 2 May, four near-stealth/low observable MH-60 helicopters ingressed unobserved from Bagram to Abbotabad. (Some US websites displaying animated action include two Chinooks, which, to my mind does not make sense as it nullifies the rationale of the other two low observable MH-60s, unless the Chinooks also had stealth features). The helicopter package was able to exploit the blind areas inherent in radars over hilly/broken terrain, while their own low-observable structure helped no less. (It is not true that PAF radars were being given a rest to conserve their life, as has been reported in The News.) It must, however, be noted that it is the PAF's AEW Erieyes that are not operated round-the-clock during peacetime, else we would quickly wear them out.

· A package of 6-7 support aircraft including EC-130E/H, MC-130, AC-130, E-3 AWACS and, most ominously, a pair of fighters of unknown type (possibly F-15C), were orbiting in FATA area. It was easy to masquerade this package as the usual retinue of half a dozen Predators, Reapers and Global Surveyors that have been flying in the same area - with government approval and PAF clearance - over the last several years. There was, therefore, no question of this support package arousing any suspicion on this particular night.

· As the operation got under way, no Pak Army unit was present in the vicinity of the OBL compound. US assessment was that local Army units in Abbotabad would be able to react effectively, not before one hour at the earliest (to take orders and draw their weapons). It was also surmised that armed soldiers at quarter guards, guard rooms, etc would not leave their posts.

· When the firing started, local commanders at Abbotabad rushed to the scene and soon informed GHQ, who in turn got in touch with AHQ. The latter immediately scrambled a pair of F-16s but by the time these got to Abbotabad in about 15 minutes, the operation was over and the helicopters had departed. Without any help from ground radar, the F-16s did not know where to look, as they had no idea that the incursion had been from the west. As a matter of fact, an intrusion from the east was uppermost in their minds. The helicopters once again flew low, through radar gaps and were not spotted either by ground radar or the F-16s. The reality dawned too late that we do not have an antidote to a stealth raiding package. USA carrying out such an attack was the biggest surprise for the PAF as well as the Army.

· In some ways, it was fortuitous that PAF F-16s did not pick up the helicopters on their radars, or else the nearby patrolling US fighters would have made short work of them with their long range missiles, what with full communications and radar jamming support available to them.

· To say that it was a failure of the PAF to react potently is completely incorrect and unfair. It was simply beyond its technical means to handle fifth-generation warfare vs USA. If it is a failure, it is at the national policy level, whereby US was compelled to sideline its much-ballyhooed ally because of trust deficit.

· Editor's comment Editor is quite familiar with the PAF and its capabilities. Everything the officer has said is fair and reasonable. In matters of defense the Pakistan press is much worse than the Indian press, which is quite bad. Editor is not surprised that the Pakistan press has got everything wrong. In case you are thinking but surely PAF/ISPR knew that the press would muck up the story, you have to remember Pakistan military PR is plain terrible.

· We cannot explain the MH-47 mystery, except to say the US has very few of the stealth MH-60s, possibly no more than four operational and perhaps a trainer. Its reasonable to assume it would not deploy more than two for the mission as US has global commitments.

· Letter on OBL mission from Brian Brown I note that there is speculation on Orbat.com that, perhaps, ISI agents sold Osama to the US.

· Let me propose a slightly different possibility: Moussa Koussa, the Libyan foreign minister defected to the West a month or so ago. Libya has been at the forefront of sponsoring terrorism, and the UK media reports his assets have been frozen and he won't be immune from prosecution etc. Indeed there was a lot of dredging up his past and the crimes he is supposed to have committed, his links to the Pan Am bombing, US embassy attacks and so on.

· Around 10 days later he is released with all of his assets, his passport, and his family and given a free ticket to go. US officials met with him in Qatar. (See ABC news blog for April 14, 2011).

· Two weeks after that Bin Laden is dead.

So, what did Koussa have to trade?

0100 GMT May 9, 2011

What's going on in Libya? Now, we'd expected that the rebels would stop fumbling around once foreign advisors arrived, and that for some months you would not see the rebels take any intgiative. They need training, which takes time.
But it seems NATO has had either a moral collapse or a military collapse. Loyalists continue to fire on Misurata; latest is they hit four big fuel tanks which have been used, among other things, to supply fuel for emergency generators. Utilities remain cut in this city. In the west, the loyalists are merrily shelling and rocketing away on the Libyan border. Zintan was hit by 300 rockets, and artillery shells have been landing in Tunisia. Why is NATO not doing something about this? Why are loyalist forces still outside Misurata, and why are they free to move in the west of the country?
Is it possible after the Tripoli raid which killed a Gaddaffi son and some grandchildren NATO no longer wants to attack even military targets? Or has NATO simply run out of the means to continue its air campaign? we have no answer to these questions.
OBL and Pakistan Times of India reports - quoting foreign media - that before moving to the compound next to the Pakistan Military Academy, OBL lived down the road in a village for 2.5 years. Thus he has been in Pakistan for 7.5 years.
Pakistan has again released to the media the name of the US CIA station chief. The first time they did it was during the Raymond Davis hoohaa, and it got the US quite annoyed. The station chief was replaced, and the Pakistanis have again named him. We're not going to even try and figure this out. No moderately sane person can ever understand how the Pakistan government, army, and ISI works.
A reader asks a question: could OBL have been betrayed to the US by someone in ISI wanting the big fat reward? This reader wasn't buying the incredibly convoluted explanation the US has been giving as to how OBL was tracked down. Well, by Occam's Razor the simplest explanation is that he was betrayed by an ISI person. The problem is we can speculate all we want, but unless the US Government tells us, we aren't going to know.
Bin Laden and the CIA Another conspiracy theory bites the dust. Allegedly one reason US offed OBL was because no one wanted him to start squawking about his CIA connection during the 1979-1989 Afghan War. Truthfully, this never made sense to us. How is it relevant? Other anti-Soviet fighters turned against the US, like Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, for example. That's no disgrace and there are no secrets to be revealed.
But more to the point, we read in the Washington Post that both the Pakistanis and the Islamists have said that the Pakistanis never let the CIA anywhere near the Islamists. And in any case OBL was not a major leader in that conflict.
Oil OBL is done in and oil falls $16/barrel. Yet there will still be people who will insist that speculation is not the cause of the rise in oil prices. True, China has been in a danger of a slowdown of its growth rate due to various factors. But that does not translate into any significant reduction in its oil demand. For one thing the number of cars and trucks on the road continues increasing - 15-million/year. For another, the demand from India remains very strong. For yet another, no commodity drops precipitously in a few days because of a possible economic slowdown. and it wasn't just oil that crashed: several other commodities went south.
BTW, if you're still inclined to feel weepy about $4/gallon gasoline in the US, we learn its $5/gallon in Beijing. And remember, the per capita income in China is ten times less than in the US.
Iraq oil target is 12-million barrels/day, making it the world's largest oil producer. We are not clear when this target will be reached. Currently its only 2.7-million-bbl/day, but even that is the highest figure since 1991. Two million bbl/day is exported. At $80/bbl that's $60-billion a year. When it achieves its target, it could take in $300-billion a year, or $10,000 per capita.

0100 GMT May 8, 2011

Actually, Bin Laden Won The granddaughter wanted to know why OBL was buried at sea. Her solution: "Cut him up in 3,000 pieces, and give each piece to one 9/11 family to burn." Heh heh heh. Cute tyke. Chip off the old block and all that.
But, that said, remember OBL never said he would militarily defeat the US. Even he knew it couldn't be done. He said he would bankrupt the USA. On this point he scored.
US is not bankrupt yet, but it has added $8-trillion to its deficit since 9/11, and a lot of that is because of the two wars, the cost of which we will pay for decades. Its difficult to say how much of Gulf II was inspired by 9/11, but surely the two events were linked in Mr. Bush's calculations. Even if we say Gulf II would have happened regardless of 9/11, the war in Afghanistan would not.
So at the minimum, OBL has cost the US $1-trillion.
In retrospect, we have to ask if invading Afghanistan was the smartest thing the US did. The objective was to get OBL. In 2001, when he moved around freely, getting him the way the US did in 2011 would have been a very much simpler affair. Going into Afghanistan now seems like an act of revenge against the Taliban for refusing to hand him over, not a purposeful effort to capture him. Moreover, it gave him plenty of time to disappear.
The Taliban are the scum of the earth and then some. It goes against any sense of decency to deal with them. But remember, before 9/11 the Taliban and US had no quarrel. Yes, the Taliban treated women very badly, but then you had/have countries like DPRK who treat everyone worse. No one disputes it will be a disaster for women if the US leaves Afghanistan. Nonetheless, American taxpayers are entitled to ask if we are to spend $100-billion a year to fight for the human rights of Afghan women.
The Tape Measure The story goes that when OBL was shot dead, a six foot tall SEAL was asked to lie down beside him to see how tall the dead man was. He was four inches taller, so that was another quick ID that the SEALs has gotten the right man.
So President Obama is supposed to have asked: "We expended a $60-million helicopter on the raid and we couldn't spare money for a tape measure?"
Well, hate to say this, but if you start adding stuff that might be needed to a soldier's load, pretty soon you will have a load no soldier can move. The whole point is you take the minimum essential, and for the rest you improvise. Which is exactly what the SEALs did.
This is a small story, and we can't say if the President was just trying to joke around. But joke or not, soldiers would not take a tape measure along, even if it weighed only 4-ounces, unless the mission could not be accomplished without one.
US Manufacturing Rebound? Some analysts are seeing rebound in US manufacturing. The wage+productivity differential between China and the USA has closed to 0.3 to 1 because of increases in Chinese wages. In some China regions the gap has closed to 0.5 to 1. Add the significant advantages of dealing with manufactures in the US versus all the way out in China, and the US looks like it is regain its lost edge.
This is terrific news, but it needs to be tempered. First, this is not going to shift the unemployment rate much, if at all. The number of workers industry needs today is much less than in the past. Business week (May 9-15, 2011, p. 14) notes, for example, that in 30-years, man-hours per ton of steel produced have dropped from 10 to 2. Second, when major segments of the US manufacturing base move overseas, R and D follows and the US loses its technology edge. Again, Business Week gives the example of printed circuit boards (p. 17): in 1984, US had 48% of the world market. It now has 8%. Third, when jobs start opening up, the number of people who had given up looking for work - and who are not counted in the unemployment figures - start looking. So in April the economy added 244,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate went UP from 8.8 to 9%.
This rate, BTW, puts us in the Banana Euro Republic category. The way we count the rate further misleads us into not realizing the extent of the crisis. If the true rate of 16% was used, we are certain left, center, and right would have a greater incentive to work together to solve America's economic problems.
Also BTW, a new study says America has the highest percentage of single-head households in the industrial world. Such households have higher rates of poverty. It is time to stop blaming the family-values crowd for being rabid, exclusionary, interfering with the rights of people and so on. There are serious economic consequences for the way we Americans choose to live our lives. If anyone doubts this, please contact Editor. He will get permission from his employer to take you to spend a day in two different schools. One is Churchill HS in Potomac, Montgomery County, Maryland, a very high-income area. The other is his old school, Bladensburg HS in Prince George's County, Maryland which is an inner city type school. You will get to see first hand why so many students in America are just not making the grade. Poor education impacts our economy directly.

0100 GMT May 7, 2011

Who will succeed OBL as AQ head? See Bill Roggio's analysis at http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2011/05/after_bin_laden_who.php

Tres unfortunate, dudes and dudettes Al Qaeda announces that OBL is, in fact, dead. This ruins all the conspiracy theories. Unless one says that US paid off his wife to say he was dead, which is a bit extreme.
A minor footnote: Pakistan says it received information that helicopters were within its airspace not via radar, but observation; the helicopter were spotted from the ground. Since the Pakistanis do not operate helicopters at night, they scrambled F-16s, but the Americans had withdrawn by the time the PAF arrived.
We're a bit skeptical about the observation part. US says it was on the ground for 40-minutes. Either Pakistan had F-16s on alert at Kamre Air Base or it didn't. If it did, a 40-minute response time seems unlikely. If it did not, 40 minutes or more is reasonable. But we think its likely the Pakistanis received first information from the Abbotabad garrison, and that would be after the attack started, not from some ex-random insomniac villager pacing up and down in his compound in the middle of the night.
US responds to Pakistani threats Pakistan has been making a big noise about how the US cannot do this, that, and the other on its territory, and there will be serious consequences unless the US learns to cease and desist and so on.
The US response? Another UAV attack, which killed twelve persons. The scuttlebutt is that the next targets are Mullah Omar and the leader of the Haqqani network. We are wondering if people are making up up this stuff. Omar is a major Taliban leader; US needs him alive as part of its negotiations. Re. the Haqqanis, Bill Roggio of Long War Journal has covered the Pakistani sponsorship in great detail. We are justified in assuming the Pakistanis will move to protect him.
Indian Navy prevents hijack of Chinese freighter 450-km west of Karwar, a major Indian port. The Chinese crew locked themselves in a safe hold. An Indian Tu-142 MR aircraft responded to the call for help and was over the Chinese freighter in 30-minutes. The aircraft radioed the pirates that surface ships were enroute. The pirates abandoned their prize and got away. The aircraft stayed in the area for four hours till help arrived. The rescue was coordinated with NATO and the Chinese task force in the Arabian Sea.

0100 GMT May 6, 2011

The Mystery Helicopter Reader Luxembourg sends several links to articles that say the helicopter that was shot down in the OBL raid as likely a long-rumored stealth UH-60. There was enough of the tail assembly left to make the identification. The wreckage, says Luxembourg is likely on its way to China. The now cancelled RAH-66 Comanche had stealthy features. As for making helicopters quiet, this is old stuff. We recall someone telling us after the end of Indochina II that the US has OH-6s that made about as much noise as wind blowing leaves. Here's a history article http://www.airspacemag.com/military-aviation/the_quiet_one.html
Luxembourg also asks what we think is a valid question. President Obama insisted that Abu Gharib pictures be released to the world. Those pictures, which were the result of a few aberrant soldiers, brought global condemnation to America. But the President will not release OBL's pictures because, he says, it will give anti-Americans a rallying point? Doesn't make much sense.
Commentators have been saying the White House's shifting story on the raid - now it turns out only one person was armed and fired shots at the attackers - is not because of any sinister cover-up, its just a result of PR incompetence. Now that the attackers have been debriefed, we have the full story. A more seasoned team would only now have released details. Well, we have no trouble accepting this explanation. But believe you us, the dissonance has made America look terrible and convinced many we are lying.
We have a question: we thought DNA testing took a few weeks. We understand that testing labs may have backlogs and in a normal crime investigation there is a bureaucratic process to slog through. But still: can a definitive match be done within hours?
BTW: we all need to remember no meaningful evidence linking OBL to 9/11 has ever been given to the public. A proper investigation after 9/11 would have taken months, at the least. Had this been a criminal case - murder by person/s unknown, it could have taken even longer. But within a couple of days the Government's mind was made up, and the tail pinned on OBL. Not that what we are saying is particularly relevant right now. Just a reminder that a legal case against OBL might have been difficult to make.
Anna Chapman Spy Case UK Independent says the Russian intelligence officer supposed to have leaked the names of the Anna Chapman sleeper ring in the US to American authorities has been formally indicted for high treason (20 years maximum) and desertion (7 years maximum). The officer is supposed to be in the US. With these spy stories its difficult to get to the truth to begin with, and here we are dealing with Russia. So please take all this with a large grain of salt.
Can anyone tell us what is low treason?
News Of The Absurd Suppose someone came up with a story line where a 19-year old, high on bath salts, and dressed in women's underwear, stabs a goat, and then gets arrested for animal cruelty, a normal reaction would be go "Nyah. Too off the wall." Well, this really happened in Alum Creek, west Virginia, according to AP.
What we cant get our minds around is said goat belonged to the neighbor, and was stabbed in a bedroom - neighbor's or accused's is not made clear. Goat? Bedroom? Women's underwear including a bra? Just exactly what is going on here?
Antimatter trapped for 1000-seconds in a CERN experiment. Anti-hydrogen was produced. with this experiment, scientists jumped four orders of magnitude in the time they have managed to trap anti-matter. We're no experts, but it seems to use another jump by 4 orders of magnitude is required before you get a useful interstellar range (~100 days). None of this addresses the question of making anti-matter in sufficient quantity for spaceship thrust.

0100 GMT May 5, 2011

Correction: Ghazi AB not Shamsi is the base the US team used for the OBL raid. We knew that, and meant to correct the mistake, but weren't sufficiently careful. Thanks to Major AH Amin and Mr. Sparsh Amin.
This and that Reader Luxembourg passes on news that four helicopters were used, 2 UH-60 types and two CH-47s. That makes a lot more sense. Further, its becoming quite clear OBL was shot in cold blood. We personally do not approve, not from any point of misplaced chivalry, but because we wanted him questioned. Of course, we fully realize that these days, given how utterly unable the Americans are in keeping their acts together, had OBL been put on trial there would have been a non-stop series of disasters, including the possibility of acquittal because of procedural errors, evidence obtained through torture, and lack of evidence beyond reasonable doubt. So there were plenty of good reasons to shoot the man even if he his hands up and his pants down. All we're objecting to is the lies and the hypocrisy. Just say we wanted to be done with him ASAP, we didn't want to take any chances he might have rigged up a dead man's switch, he was so ugly we had to shoot him, or whatever, and lets move on. After all, in America the police routinely kill suspects who "appeared" to be reaching for a gun, no one is convicted of manslaughter.
There is another reason to have shot him dead on sight The CIA director has said he doesn't think OBL had a chance to speak before he was killed. A White House official says OBL would have had to be naked before the attackers would consider letting him live. Sounds harsh, but remember OBL had said he wouldn't be taken alive. If the man had killed himself before he was killed, more than half the point of the attack would have been lost.
Again: mission has been accomplished, its time to go home. If we keep our fat butt in Afghanistan-Pakistan, readers can be 100% sure that we will soon enough be forced out. Its absurd to think we can "manage" Pakistan and Afghanistan. We noted the other day that Afghan soldiers do not want to fight. We've explained many times that it is absolutely not in Pakistan's interest to fight the Taliban. If we don't understand by now that the Pakistanis are capable of fooling us any time of the day or night, and that we cannot make them give up their strategic objectives in favor of America's strategic objectives, then there is just no hope for this country.
Letter from Anthony Garcia on our OBL comments yesterday I disagree on the issue of it being the President's victory. That is a bit dramatic but I also think he has earned more than just ancillary credit. One of President Bush's biggest mistakes a decade ago was to begin a second war allowing for the US to lose focus on Al Qaida and OBL in particular. We have continued to pay for that blunder ever since. Our current President has in my opinion, refocused the priority on Afghanistan and on capture/kill of OBL. It is for that reason IMO he gets credit.
I hate when people use euphemisms like 'Nail', 'take out', 'take down', or 'eliminate'. The fact is a man was killed. There is no pleasant way to state it. Use of the euphemisms imply that there is something unpleasant or troublesome regarding the killing of of OBL and that somehow we must soften the impact through abstraction. It is troublesome, but if it is important enough to execute the killing of OBL then it should be important enough not to hide behind the euphemisms.
A second observation (unrelated to your posting) is that when the twin towers was bombed we saw video and images of persons particularly in the Arab world celebrating that heinous act. In many ways I feel that it was easy to take those videos and see that these were ignorant people who in some ways were not as 'good' as us.§ When I see the peoples reaction in this country I'm disturbed because if you forget the fact that it is OBL's fate they are celebrating, it could be those same photos of people celebrating the destruction of the twin towers and the killing of the thousands that perished. I wish we in the US could have done better.
India says it told US about OBL being in Pakistan, at a cantonment, twice. Once in 2007 and once in 2008. But the US apparently paid no attention to the information.
Now, we don't want to be unnecessarily rude here, but does Government of India realize how many hot tips (as opposed to crank tips) US Government received every day about OBL's whereabouts? A friend Who Knew asked us to guess, We said 10 tips a day. He laughed because, he said, our estimate was so low.
So Government of India should not feel bad it was ignored. if the tips were given on an intelligence agency to intelligence agency basis they would have been thoroughly checked out, even if the US said nothing one way or another.
BTW, has anyone in the Government of India noticed how greedily the US sucks up information about national security measures and how little it gives in return? And has GOI noticed when the Americans do give you information it is wholly with ulterior purpose and how its neatly tailored for whatever specific objective they have in mind? India has been dealing with the US very closely since Editor has been away (1989), so India should know by now. If only because Editor told them several times and they paid no attention to Editor. (Snicker away, but its true. Editor told GOI in 1971 USS Enterprise was not coming to intervene for Pakistan, and guess what? They stared at him as if he was an alien and continued with their conversation. They did not even dignify Editor's information with a "yes", "no", or "why are you such an idiot, Ravi?"). He also told GOI several times it would be 2000 before Pakistan had operational N-warheads. Same blank response. A prophet is without honor in his own country, true, but what's even more depressing is when Editor tells these stories, people In The Know just say "poor thing, getting old and senile now, making all these claims post de facto years after we knew the details."
Einstein proved right - again Booooooring, We love the man, but just for a change of pace couldn't he be proved wrong once in a while? Einstein said that space is warped by bodies like planets, stars, galaxies and so on. NASA's Gravity Probe B has just proved Einstein's inference. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-13286241 what's remarkable is the man just sat there with a pencil and paper, thought deep thoughts, scribbled a simple equation or two, and never did anything except thought experiments. Yet he's been right on just about everything he said during his lifetime.
BTW, he's said to have been wrong on the speed of light, as proved by John Bell. But as far as we know, Bell was talking about quantum entanglement, not about special relativity. Einstein was really saying information cannot travel faster than the speed of light, and that so far is correct. (If we have this wrong, please write.)
Romanian base for US ABM interceptors identified Defense News says it is Deveselu AB, currently inactive. It will be reactivated and 24 Standard 3 land-based ABM interceptors will be located there. A similar5 facility will be put into Poland, and US Aegis cruisers will extend the ABM shield into the western Mediterranean. The Standard 3 is the same diameter as the Standard 2, so a theoretical maximum load would be 122 missiles. In reality, the number is unlikely to exceed 24 because of the need for self-protection anti-aircraft./anti-cruise missile rounds and surface strike rounds like the Tomahawk.

0100 GMT May 4, 2011

Why is it so hard to get a straight story out of the US Government First, Bin Laden fought back, hiding behind a woman. Then, he didn't fight use a weapon, but he "resisted". How? Did he make ugly faces? Why say anything till you have your story straight?
Moreover, why wasn't any effort made to capture him for questioning? Ooooh it would have caused unrest in the Arab world. Which Arab world? The one on ALT_Earth-B? (We live on ALT_Earth-A - where the real earth is, no one has a clue, not even us.) Who cares what it would have caused? Here is the alleged head of your alleged terrorist network and you kill him on sight? Think of the priceless information the man had - unless he really wasn't important except as a figure head.
Then there's this helicopter business. US says it sent two, one crashed, but everyone hopped into the other one after the mission, along with OBL's body, and hightailed it. Okay, if the surviving helicopters was an MH-47, you can do this. But aircraft ID types are saying the helicopter Pakistan trucked away in pieces - covered with tarps, if you please - looks to be an MH-60 from what can be made out. That's fine, but an MH-60 carries at best 10 soldiers plus 4 crew (we assume you'd need the door gunners). Navy SEALS are not exactly a petite and demure size 2; its more reasonable to assume a load of 8. So even if one helicopter had only its crew, you are not going to get everyone plus one set of crew plus one large scumbag into a single MH-60. And would US have sent in, like, 8 SEALS for such an important mission?
Anyway, one thing we can support is US saying they did not inform Pakistan. People have been saying well, the helicopters came from Shamsi AB, which is near Tarabela, so Pakistan must have cooperated. Actually, no. US uses Shamsi and its area is strictly - we mean strictly - off limits to the Pakistanis. US helicopters and personnel fly in and out at all hours. US could easily have sent a team from - say - Afghanistan to Shamsi and Pakistan would have none the wiser.
President General Musharraf (or ex-President General) actually had the effrontery to say that the US should have informed Pakistan and Pakistan SF would have done the job. Rolling On Floor Laughing. But this is the lala land the Pakistanis live in. And of course they immediately claimed they were part of the operation, till they officially claimed they were not. Business as usual.
Now, what is this great "sensitivity" the US showed in the man's burial? If he didn't die at sea, it's a no-no to bury him there. So already the US Department of Sensitivity has blown it. Point is, no one cares what US did with the body or if it showed sensitivity. Common sense says the man's head should have been mounted on a pike on the White House lawn, and President Obama should have invited President Bush for a darts game, with the head as the target. That would have been really so sensitive. And the Prez and his cabinet are watching all these people being offed in real time? That is sensitive? Please.
Killing OBL was not about the law, it was not about justice, it was about revenge. And you know something? That's great! It's okay! It's fine to drag the body around the walls of Troy and to gloat! People want closure. US Government has denied them closure. Again, of course, unless the US didn't want OBL squawking like a plucked chicken in Arlington Court.
Oh yes, we're so sensitive that we are debating if we want the public to see the pictures of the dead OBL. Excuse me, please. You used MY taxpayer's money to get the guy, you have to satisfy ME, and I believe I speak for 99% of Americans: we want to see the body, we want to dance on OBL's grave.
Thank you so much for denying us that opportunity and leaving the way open for the next 200 years of conspiracy theory.
Then there's this business about it being the president's victory. Huh? The hunt has been on for 10 years. Did the president personally lead the hunt? He did not. Several organizations hunted down the man. The president is 100% irrelevant. Prez is the head of the government. Sure he should get some credit, because he surely would have gotten the blame had things gone wrong. But Prez had nothing to do with this. Neither did Mr. Bush.
Syria At last people have come clean on Syria. The truth is now being spoken: it is in no one's interests that Syria fall to potential instability, so, Sorry about That, to the Syrian people.
Israel: Syria is the devil Israel knows. It does not want the devil it does not know. Iran: Teheran wanted justice for Iraq's Shia majority oppressed by Saddam. But it doesn't want justice for the majority Syrian oppressed because they are Sunnis. Iraq: we got ours, now you please scram. You're just a bunch of dirty Sunnis. The west: we want no instability, the entire Mideast could unravel. who knows where a revolution would end.
The Syrian oppressed are saying, that so great. We can go to heck because it doesn't suit you for us to have freedom. Tell us again how freedom is a universal value and how the West went into Gulf I, Gulf II, and Afghanistan so that the peoples there get freedom. We're not human beings? We don't count?
Truthfully, no to both questions. And again, Sorry About That.
China Yuan The Yuan is headed up to 6.5 to the US dollar and is likely to rise more. Finally occurred to all those giant minds in Beijing that a stronger yuan reduces exports, yes, but it makes imports cheaper. That brings down prices, increases the standard of living, and partially offsets the increase in the yuan's strength. Besides, the yuan's exchange rate has little to so with the massive trade imbalances China runs. The government makes it as difficult for other exporters to compete as is possible. In some case the Chinese export goods for less than the cost of the raw materials, meaning they subsidize exports. When you're sitting on $3-trillion of foreign exchange reserves, subsidizing exports starts looking like a losing proposition. Even if the Yuan goes to 5.5, the US is not going to enjoy an export bonanza till we get an export policy. Which we never will because conservatives are against government setting economic policy - except if it happens to benefit themselves.

0100 GMT May 3, 2011

Bye Bye Osama: We will so not miss you As a professional mea culpa, Editor has to admit he (a) was surprised the man was still alive, and (b) that his huge and expensive compound was built within 750-meters of the Pakistan Military Academy. So its no secret ISI was protecting OBL, but its kind of really sticking your thumb in so-called ally's eye to locate OBL adjacent to your premier officer training academy. Having used the adage "Darkest below the lamp" as an operational motto in matters small and big, Editor is familiar with the ISI concept of housing OBL. Still, it takes a lot of guts and a lot of gall to do as ISI did. Our congratulations to them.
This mansion looked to be the biggest compound/house in the garrison town, and aside from the almost 6-meter walls, it had no telephone or internet connection. Pakistan, like India, is a country where everyone knows everyone, and your business is everyone's business. This again shows ISI's gall, because such a compound would attract constant gossip and interest from everyone around. Particularly as the ancient "owner" had no source of wealth, and SUVs kept going in and out.
Anyway. Reader Luxembourg wonders if Raymond Davis was part of the team assigned to watch OBL. Anything is possible, but remember the US has several hundred contractors/non-official cover people in Pakistan, if not a thousand or so. We did think he must have been an important person for the US to tell Pakistan "Give him back or its all over, Baby Blue". After all, spies and operators get busted all the time. Gentlemen come to a quiet accommodation after the fuss is over, and an exchange is done, everyone saves face etc etc. You don't go nuclear unless the person is someone you really, really must have back before the Pakistanis started pulling out his toenails. Still, we assume in the next couple of years there will be at least five books with the title "How I caught OBL" particularly from old codgers who stayed on past retirement because they'd made a vow to get OBL or else, and who can now speak up. So lets see what we will see.
Further Indian China border logistics improvements Richard Thatcher alerts us to a new Indian forward airfield, this time in the state of Uttarakhand. (We always get confused because when the state, consisting of the mountain counties of Utter Pradesh was formed, its name was Uttranchal. or was it the other way around?
Minor background on the China border airfields. In the 1960s, after the Sino-India War of 1962, India undertook a vast operation to construct helicopter fields and Advanced Landing Grounds along the border. Most of these fell into disuse as time passed and the threat of another war dimmed. In recent years India has been reactivated, and rebuilding these fields to accommodate heavier aircraft than they were originally designed for. Also, modern landing aids and tactical navigation systems are being added to widen the envelope during which the fields can be used. Also, the Indians seem to be getting out of their old bad habits of relying on blind courage and eternal hope while flying in-and-out of these fields.
The Uttarakhand sector has traditionally had a mountain division to the far east of the sector, and a mountain brigade group in the center. A new brigade group is to be raised, so the logistics have to be improved.
India extends ability to move heavy armor to Ladakh India has the equivalent of a mechanized brigade in Ladakh. The T-72s used to be brought in by air transport, with the tanks disassembled. Royal pain in the fundament and all that. At one stage in the 1990s the heavy armor was being withdrawn, if we recall right, because no threat was perceived.
Now, in accordance with what Mandeep Bajwa has been telling us, as part of India's new offensive strategy against China, India has widened its Srinager to Leh road at the Zojila Pass so that tank transporters can move armor whenever India needs it, and in the quantities India needs. Further, India is planning a tunnel under the pass. Right now snow blocks the pass in the winter and its very hard to keep the road open. So traffic shuts down for the winter. To cater for emergencies, Army has forward dumped large quantities of supplies in Ladakh, sufficient for4 a year, because it assumes Pakistan will try and cut the road in the event of war with India. India is to raise and induct more troops into Ladakh, the first authorization being an infantry brigade group. This inevitably means better logistics are needed.
Libya An aid and evacuation ship is being held 20-km off Misurata because three mines were found in the area and defused. NATO says there may be more so no evacuations are taking place till the area is declared safe.
Surprisingly - to us, anyway - Gaffy still has tanks outside Misurata that he is using, We'd have thought by now NATO or at least the US UAVs would have located every last one and trashed them by now. Very odd.
Here are six ads on the right margin of a UK Telegraph page we reading. 1: New loophole allows any Maryland driver to get extremely cheap insurance. We don't know what "extremely cheap" means, but Editor has only the minimum insurance required by law, has an excellent rate, no coverage on the car itself, and he pays $30/month. That's because he drives a Suzuki Swift, which is so light it cant cause much damage. But ad number 2 says: "Maryland: mom discovers $9 car insurance trick. Auto insurers are scared you will learn this too. Well, if the first ad is related to this second, $9/month should get you insurance for your Vespa. That would be about it. Certainly not for any car. Then ad 3 says: "Strange African fruit burns 12.3 pounds of fat every 28 days." An extract of this fruit sells for $639 discounted to $220 for those wanting to lose sixty pounds. The strange fruit? African mango. Ad number 4 and 5 are basically the same: "Maryland: Your insurance agent hates this. Follow this 1 simple trick to get extremely cheap rates". The ad asks if you can get insurance for less than $40. Well, the Editor pays $30, to a reputable company called GEICO, so this ad is a bust. Moreover, the ad is delivered in British accents. No Marylander will be able to understand a word. Ad 6: Fill out our short form and learn how to eliminate your IRS debt within minutes. Free consultation." Now, is the ad saying you can find out in minutes how to eliminate your IRS debt? If so, here's one sure way: pay up what you owe. Or is the ad saying your debt will be eliminated in minutes? If readers know anything about US IRS, they'll know yes, there is a 100% fool-proof way to eliminate your IRS debt in minutes. Its called committing suicide. And even then, don't be too sure an IRS agent is not waiting for you next to St. Peter. And whether you're dead or alive, they'll seize whatever assets you have to help pay off the tax.

1130 GMT May 2, 2011

Well done, CIA/US military

Osama now sleeps with the fishes. We await the explanation of the Pakistan military (not the Pakistan Government, because it is not involved) regarding its hosting of America's most wanted in a military cantonment, even if Osama's house was likely outside the formal base area. We do not expect the Pakistan military to do anything except claim false credit for alerting the Americans, whereas the military was sheltering Obama. We do expect business as usual between the US and Pakistan. That there will be no change in the Afghan War goes without saying - US itself has said so many times in the past. But in this moment of victory, we ask the US to remember it has achieved its objectives as they were set in September 2001. Osama is dead. Every congratulation is due the CIA and US military forces. The US needs to now come home.

0001 GMT May 2, 2011

The Arab Spring In Yemen, the president refuses to sign on the document provided by Gulf intermediaries, which allows Yemen to wish him goodbye. He insists he has to head a provisional government for 30 days. The rebels say no deal.
In Libya, the Government says a son of the President and three grandchildren were killed when when NATO attacked a compound in Tripoli. An international crime says Libya. The son is a legitimate target as far as we are concerned. That's bad about the grandkids. But knowing that you under the gun and keeping your grandkids with you sounds suspiciously like a human shield kind of thing. Will government now admit it has committed international crimes by killing children in the war zone?
In Syria, reports say the city of Derra has been isolated into four sectors, and the army is taking away males above 15.
In Palestine, Hamas and Fatah have called a truce and planned talks for unification. Israel has stopped tax payments to the west Bank (Fatah), saying that money could now go to Hamas.
Re. President Obama and the Arab Spring, we don't know if this a joke or not, but a defender suggested he is leading from behind. Assuming the defender is serious, how exactly do you lead from behind? Isn't the expression "lead, follow, or get out of the way"? To us this implies if you are not in the front, you are not leading. Or have we missed something?
The Federal Debt and America Washington Post reminds readers that 10-years ago, when Mr.. Bush II took office, talk was of paying off the debt by 2011. Instead, here we are, at $15-trillion. The reasons are very simple: tax cuts, two recessions, two wars and big jumps in entitlements, both not paid for. Left and right, conservatives and liberals, Republicans and Democrats all conspired to bring this about. The solution is simple: send every single politician involved in the fiasco from 2011 onward to jail, the special one down south to Maricopa County, Arizona. These people stand there with American flags in their lapels, and yet they have done more to ruin America than any enemy. We punish our enemies. These people should be punished too.
Ad for Donald Trump, force him to file his nomination for president along with his birth certificate. A financial statement is already required. That financial statement will make him the laughing stock of the country, which considering the number of clowns we have will be quite a feat. The birth certificate will decisively prove he has not been born, let alone being born in America (we've explained this this came about in an earlier post).
Fukushima Daichii A visual inspection of Reactor 4 shows that despite earlier fears, there has been no significant damage to the spent fuel pond. Debris has fallen into the pond, but the fuel and pond are intact. http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/RS_No_significant_damage_to_fuel_at_unit_4_3004111.html
Iran President Returns To Work He went on an 8-day sulk where he disappeared from sight after the Supreme Leader refused to let him fire a cabinet official. The president removed the intelligence chief on April 17, says BBC. Following that the Supreme Leader told the president he couldn't do that. After 300 MPs signed a letter urging the president to return to work, the president repledged his loyalty to the Supreme Leader and resumed his duties.
Now, while we are always happy to the see the Iranian president's tail twisted, readers will see the obvious danger. The religious theocracy is not elected, and it answers to no one. Yet it has the final say in Iran's affairs, internal and external. This cannot be a good thing.
BTW, news is another computer worm has hit Iran's N-program.
India rejects US, Russian fighter jet offers This leaves the Rafaele and the Typhoon as the finalists, as the Viggen had been dropped from consideration earlier. US proclaims itself disappointed and wonders about the state of the Indo-American strategic relationship.
It would be nice if the US would specify what exactly the Indians have gotten out of this relationship, and does the US really think the gain offsets the huge negatives of America's support for Pakistan? Get a grip, Washington. You are best friends forever with India's mortal enemy and your main role seems to be to plead for Pakistan everytime the later does something particularly nasty to India.
Industry sources say probably it is a good thing the US did not get the deal because the offset and technology transfer requirements were too onerous. Moreover, India has hardly been ignoring the US. It has deals plus options for 12 C-130Js, 10 C-141, and 16 P-8s, totaling almost $7-billion (versus $11-billion for the fighter deal) after options are exercises, which they will. Further, India is keen to buy any number of US systems. It has already bought M777 howitzers for $650-million, and that was just the start. India is also terribly taken up with the Stryker. The AH-64 and CH-47 are also hot favorites - a couple of billion right there. So US is not doing that badly.
Cuban terrorist who found safety in US dies This is Dr. Orlando Bosch, who US law enforcement authorities said was suspected of involvement in 30+ terrorists acts. He did time for one one crime, four years attacking a Polish freighter in Miami, if we have the city right, No Guantanamo for this terrorist, because you see, he was anti-Castro. That makes his terrorism okay. And then Americans - some, anyway - wonder why the rest of the world thinks America is hypocritical on terrorism.

0100 GMT May 1, 2011

Afghanistan

US high command has decided situation has sufficiently improved that withdrawals can start. Seeing as at least 2/3rds of the American people want out, President Obama has no choice but to make withdrawals, even if they are token ones in 2011. Its so nice that "progress on the ground" "coincides" with the political need to start withdrawals.
Meanwhile, back on the ranch, not one - repeat, not one - Afghan Army battalion is capable of independent operations. See http://defensenews.com/story.php?i=6371219&c=ASI&s=TOP Desertions are still running 60%, but the US proclaims itself satisfied with the training pace.
People, suppose you ran a company. Suppose 10 years later not a single one of your business units is making a "profit". You have a turnover of 60% after investing in costly training - for which training your employees are fully compensated. And here its worse because its not like the deserters are giving notice, nor can they be easily replaced. Suppose you pronounced yourself satisfied with progress. What would your shareholders do?
Nothing, because you'd have been fired seven years ago, and the company wound up. But this is the US military, which is beyond criticism or reproach, at least on earth, and probably also in heaven. The US military has done a shockingly, all-time, pathetically bad job of training the Afghans. Yet there is no one asking for accountability. And no one will.
Also meanwhile, Hamid Karzai is getting worried about the size of his military and how he will pay for it. The Afghan military costs $6-billion a year, and the revenue budget without aid is $1.5-billion. That $6-billion is a Big Fat Lie, because the US/allies spend many times that on supporting the Afghan forces. Karzai is also worried that a large, professional military class will become like the Pakistanis, who have an Army with a state, and not a state with an army. So he wants to introduce conscription. The US is having a serious, severe fit. Conscripts! How can they possibly compete with the magnificent professionals we train? Yes, people, the same professionals who desert at the rate of 60% annually, and who cannot field one battalion capable of fighting on its own.
We think quite lowly of Karzai, but on both these counts he has a point. Does the US have interest in dealing with these issues, or does the US assume that 50 years down the road we'll still be training and funding the Afghans?
In case you're wondering what is the problem with US training, its quite simple. The American military, like the American people, believe themselves to be perfect. It thinks only the US military knows how to train foreign armies. So the US trains the foreign armies to be little 'uns in its own image, sort of like the cute pageboys in mock Irish Guards uniforms at Will and Kate's wedding the other day. Cuteness factor of the 8- and 10-year olds? 110%. But would you send them to fight a war for you? Obviously not. Ditto Afghan Army. double ditto Afghan Police, which because this is a CI situation actually has to be tougher at fighting than the Army.
Ultimately, like everything else, the Afghan situation is the fault of the American people. We decided to have a professional military that accounts for 1% of the population because we no longer accepted the notion of joint sacrifice. In return, we let the military so as it wants. And so it has, and actually say with a straight face "after 10 years we are starting to turn the situation around, so we deserve another 10."
It might amuse readers to compare the money spent on the Afghan Army as compared to that spent on the Indian Army. The Indian Army is 100% long-service volunteers, and it spends around $14-billion a year for 1.3-million troops for personnel and O & M. It has 8000 AFVs and 4000 artillery pieces. It has several hundred helicopters. It is deployed on fronts that extend over 5000-kilometers. Yet it spends under $11,000 per soldier per year on salaries and O & M.
We'd have to research for an exact calculation, but lets assume the Afghan Army budget is $4-billion for its 160,000 personnel. Lets further reasonably assume that equipment is extra - we've left out equipment but not parts for the Indian Army. That is $25,000 per soldier for what is basically a light infantry army. Moreover, that $4-billion is a myth as we mentioned. Several billions more are spent by the US/allies for equipment, supplies, training, advisors, and other support. But lets ignore that.
Now please explain how the Afghans are spending more than twice what the Indians spend, when India has a PPP per capita of $3200, and Afghanistan has a PPP per capita of $1000, implying in PPP terms Afghanistan is spending six times per soldier as India - and then you get a 60% desertion rate on top of that, plus zero independent effectiveness.
Do readers see the problem here? This a snafu of extreme proportions, but no one is asking questions.
By the way, Afghan Army recruits are to get $200/month, if they are not already. That's what a judge or a university professor makes. The US says it has to offer high salaries to get Afghans to volunteer.
Very interesting. So does the US care to explain why an Indian Army captain gets basically that same salary? Admittedly, there is not a rush to become an Indian Army officer. But India is the second-fastest growing economy in the world. Young people have a world of opportunities other than the military. What opportunities do young Afghans have? And BTW, please remember, in PPP terms the Indian Army captain is getting a third of what an Afghan recruit is getting.
When you are paying so much money and you can't get people to stay - 60% desertion - whereas India or equally Pakistan has no trouble with retention, does this suggest to the US military that your typical Afghan soldier just does not want to fight? We're sure he has his reasons. But it occur to the US military that when soldiers don't want to fight for their country, its time for the US to go home?

A Note To Bulgari

Dear Bulgari, when you show a perfume ad photograph of a cute almost naked lady with an ultra-cute kitty-kat looking lion, the normal person will focus on the lion.
PS: I am almost 70-years of age and a sucker for cute, ladies of any age in any state of undress or dress. But I'd have to be a pervert of some time to bestow hugs and smoochies on the lady in preference to the kitty-kat lion.
By all means consult me before you do your new ad campaign. You will save a lot of money.
www.wired.com/autopia/2011/04/bike-built-of-wood-could-set-speed-record/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+wiredautopia+(Blog+-+Autopia)&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher Scroll down and look to the right.

0100 GMT April 30, 2011

Libyan loyalists stopped from laying sea mines You have to sort of admire the Quackster, aka Gaffy The Duck. He just doesn't give up. Must be some of that tribal blood from his ancestors. NATO warships interdicted an attempt by Gaffy to lay mines off Misurata, and his land forces continued to bombard the city. Though again, when we say "bombard" don't think of the Russians at the gates of Berlin 1945. A couple of rocket salvos suffice for the opposition and the media to talk of "a brutal bombardment" or "a murderous bombardment", or "a deadly barrage".
A couple of days ago NATO destroyed 37 vehicles of a Gaffy convoy outside Misurata, and the allies have also been attacking what remains of loyalist artillery and armor. NATO's fears about blue-on-blue are well justified: ten rebels were killed by NATO. The rebels say they had told their men to stay out of the attacked area, but apparently instructions were disregarded. More like, In Our Humble Opinion, the instructions were misunderstood, war being what it is.
Meanwhile it looks as if the first rebel oil cargo that left Libya three weeks ago is unloading/about-to-unload in China.
One estimate we read of rebel forces is 1500 uniformed soldiers, 1000 sort-of-trained militia, and 5000 enthusiasts who appear to create more confusion on their side than striking fear into the Gaffy Brigades. These we estimate are down to 3000 men.
In Western Libya, loyalists troops first wrested back the Tunisia border crossing seized by the rebels the other day. During this operation the Libyans happily charged into Tunisian territory and attacked Tunisian buildings. A woman was reported killed. The Tunisians are mad as heck and have told the loyalists if this happens again they, the Tunisians, will retaliate. One report says the loyalists apologized. A number of them, about 10-20, have been taken prisoner by the Tunisians. Later, the rebels reclaimed the border crossing. It sits astride the sole road that goes south through the extreme west of Libya, rebel territory, and is the sole route for essentials for that part of the country.
Syria The tight government cordon around Derra continues. The town of 120,000 is without power, water, or food except what might have been there before the blockade. Snipers shoot at anyone attempting to leave their houses or pick up dead bodies. Surrounding villagers tried Friday to break the blockade to bring in food etc., they were attacked by government forces and had to retreat.
So: what precisely is the difference between Misurata and Derra? Seems to us that the UN/West etc has less of a case re Misurata if they talk of the need to protect civilians. Misurata was taken by armed rebels. In Derra there are no armed rebels. They are just ordinary civilians, and they are going to be shot, and starved into submission simply for asking for the rule of law.
Meanwhile, security forces keep raiding homes and taking away pro-democracy suspects.
But: what does Syria have to do with the rest of us? The west is suffering intervention fatigue, and China, Russia, and India, which is keeping the company its government and elite are most comfortable, i.e., authoritarian regimes with have made it clear they will block any UN action on Syria. Except for nominal measures that will not hurt the regime.
So, Derra: bad luck for you, and Sorry About That.
Change Of Guard At The Pentagon/CIA: Orbat.com has no comment That's because nothing has happened that merits a comment. People are going oh and ah and wow about the new arrivals, but you can never get a Washingtoon to understand it doesn't matter how smart a person was before s/he became a Washingtoon insider, the simple fact of shifting here sets up an exponential decay of brain cells. Both the new people were ALREADY heavy-duty Washingtoon insiders before they got their new jobs. As we said: No comment.
100-Terabit per second transmission achieved by two separate groups, one in the US and one in Japan. This is not just in the lab. The US team sent its signals down a 165-km fibreoptic line. The Japanese have hit 109 TB/s, slightly ahead of the US's 102 TB/s. We were wondering who is going to use these gigantic capacities. Apparently the first customers are likely to be companies like Google and Amazon with giant data centers.
Something odd Some weeks ago, Editor trimmed a thumbnail too closely. Whenever working with his hands, bits and pieces of skin would tear off at the tip of his thumb. An open bleeding spot just would not close. Well, the other day it got warm enough to muck around in the garden. To protect the thumb and the open bleeding spot, Editor wore a glove. At some point without thinking he took off the glove as he was spreading the topsoil that comes in 40-lb bags. By the time he realized what he'd done, his hands - including the leaky thumb were completely grimy and the underside of his fingernails were encrusted in soil.
When Editor used a nail brush to clean under the nails, the leaky thumb was too sore to brush. So he left it alone.
One day later the bleeding stopped. Two days later than was a new layer of skin. And on the third day there was yet another layer or two of skin. Thumb was completely back to normal.
Tres strange.

0100 GMT April 29, 2011

Syria Reports from Derra that units of the 4th and 5th Divisions exchanged fire for several hours, with casualties. We had no idea that Dr. Bash-Them-Dead, the ruler of the country, needs elements of two division to put down one town. (BTW, Bash-Them-Dead, aka Bashir Asad Junior, is a real doctor - an ophthalmologist.)
This news is coming as a surprise to everyone because though the country is ruled by the minority Alawite sect and the rank-and-file are Sunnis it is believed the army is solidly behind the regime. The Alawites are Shia. When we say "everyone", we exclude the Editor who - to tell the absolute truth - had no clue till the other day that Syria is ruled by a Shia minority. We don't pay much attention to the politics of nations and Editor has not been in Syria for 40-years. Back in the day most of us paid no heed to these finer details of the Mideast nations.
Had we known about the ethnic divide, we would not have been making confident statements about the Syrian Army being indivisible and all that. You could ask the question: in the Hama revolt of 1982, Bash-Them-Dead's daddy, Hafez, used the army to kill between 10- and 30,000 citizens, and wasn't there an Alawite-Sunni divide then? Yes, there was. But times were different back in 1982. Freedom was deemed to be the province of the rich west, with some exceptions like quirky India. The power of a nation over its people was assumed to be absolute. Today Bash-Them-Dead kills maybe 500 of his citizens, and the world is freaked out. Then, we recall the figures of dead were given as 30,000, and everyone merely yawned.
India and the Arab Spring India has been conspicuously silent on the Arab Spring, which is ironic, because India was the first country after 1945 to successfully come to the defense of an entire oppressed people in another country. This was in 1971, when the Bengali majority of Pakistan, which happened to live almost exclusively in - imagine that - East Bengal, revolted against its Punjabi masters in Islamabad in West Pakistan. So abhorrent to the world community was this intervention that when India attacked East Pakistan to help the Bengalis win their freedom, the condemnation from the UN General Assembly was more lopsided than any vote to that time: 104 against India, 10 for, 11 abstained. This despite volumes of evidence concerning the horrific genocide.
So, you'd think India would be at the forefront of support for the Arab Spring. Many westerners, particularly Americans who have invested in the Indo-US partnership, are shocked, astounded, and angry at India's silence.
Now, India has well-qualified diplomats to explain its position, not least the sharp-tongued intellectual and formidable debater who is it's ambassador to Washington. On a personal level, Editor knew the Ambassador when she was young and starting out in life. (Editor had to say that, to establish his moral superiority over mere mortals, the majority of whom are far, far younger than he is.)
So, the Editor has been asking himself, why should it fall on him of all people, to whom the Indian Government showed a notable lack of love during his 20-years in India, to explain the Government of India's position? (Editor had to say that, as a hint to the Indian Government that it should say sorry. Of course, the people who run the government now are so young they haven't the least clue who the Editor is.)
Anyway, let's generously forget the past (not that's the Editor has much choice given the disparity of power between GOI and him) and explain. The explanation is both boring and ignoble.
First, India still has a rock-solid mindset opposed to anything that smacks of Western Imperialism. Yes, yes, America did not colonize India. But the the British-trained socialist elite that brought India to independence and ruled it till 1984 thought of America as the greatest imperialists of them all. (Odd that the British should think of America as imperialists, given their history with America and the rest of the world.) People no longer reflexively think that, but whenever America intervenes anywhere, India's racial memory activates.
Second, Kashmir. India's reflexively get ashamed when freedom for other countries is mentioned, because India can be accused of not giving Kashmiris freedom. They don't want to get into ANY debate about democracy for others.
This is highly silly of India because India does not deny Kashmir democracy, it denies Kashmir the right to secede, and that's nothing to be ashamed of. Now we don't want to get into a tired old debate about what kind of democracy Kashmir has. The truth is that like any part of any country in the world, there are people who gain when one political party is in power, and there are people who lose. In Kashmir those who lose turn to secession, even though "Kashmir" is actually three different ethnic sub-states, two of which have no wish to secede, especially given the very sat history of minorities in Pakistan.
We are not arguing the Kashmir issue, saying only that India feels terribly defensive about the situation and doesn't want to be accused of hypocrisy or to encourage Kashmiri secessionists. Mind you, between 1947 and 1990 India held the world record for political hypocrisy, because though it enjoyed every benefit of democracy, the number of non-democratic states it was Best Friends Forever with was the highest for any democracy.
(At which point readers exclaim: "You're going back before the fall of the Soviet Union! We know you are old, but that old!?" At which point Editor sadly says: "Children, Editor was old before there was a Soviet Union.")
American Birthers Let us first reiterate: could Editor vote, he would have voted for Bush I in 1992 and for McCain in 2008. He is not an Obama fan, but you already knew that.
That said, it's time to call a garden implement a garden implement. American Birthers are being so overtly racist that they are smearing America's reputation worldwide. This debate is beyond eccentric and has nothing to do with the freedom of expression.
Please note the irony of someone who looks like Donald Trump casting doubt on if Obama is American. The Donald doesn't even look like he's a human being. Please don't say he looks like a Martian. Editor is a Martian, and your ugliest Martian looks more like a human than Donald. What human being willingly has an operation that removes his hair, and replaces it with artificially colored synthetics, one strand of which can bear the weight of the Space Shuttle? Please look carefully at Donald's face: it keeps changing shape, as if the spell by which he keeps his face looking like a human's is faltering. Anyone who has seen a Harry Potter movie can tell that.
Listen to the words that come out of his voice synthesizer/translator. There is NO information content. Clearly he a robot whose brain has been fried.
Now why has it been fried? Because whoever made this von Neumann machine messed up. The synthetic hair is supposed to dissipate the heat generated by the robot brain. But because Donald insisted on it being colored a shade of yellow you generally see on the scalps of dead vampires, the dye prevents heat dissipation. Ergo, Ipso Facts, QED, and La La La, the robot's mind has fried.
Here's a challenge that we feel kind of bad throwing at Donald. Its worse even than stealing candy from a baby. Its like challenging a baby to a game of chess and then boasting about winning. An albino baby flatworm, that is. But - enough about our sensitivity, which is well known. Challenge Donald to produce his birth certificate. Go ahead. He wont be able to.
And you know why? If you shine a 356,789 Angstrom light at a certain spot of Donald's anatomy (this is a family blog so we can't mention the exact part, but lets just say the part is essential for - um - getting rid of the body's toxic waste) you will immediately see the words "I am an idiot". Anyone knows that that identifies Donald as a product of Consolidated Robots, Factory 666.
We can't tell you where in the universe Factory 666 is located. Because if we told you, we'd have to take your teddy bear captive to guarantee your silence. And because Editor is very sensitive - see, he's already weeping at the thought of inflicting pain on your Teddy by taking the poor innocent thing prisoner, sins of the fathers should not be visited on their Teddy Bears and all that - he doesn't want to tell you where this factory is.
But Donald is not the only robot from Factory 666 that afflicts us humans ...uh oh, we've already said too much.

0100 GMT April 28, 2011

The so-called American "free market" Lately we hear much talk about letting the market operate in this field or the other (generally in K-12 education, health, and social security. But what does it take for the average American to realize she does NOT live in a free market economy. This is because the free market is being throttled by the government - for the benefit of American corporates.
The president the other day called for an end to oil/gas production subsidies. The speaker of the House first jumped at the offer: after all, he is a vocal exponent of the free market. Before he had finished speaking, someone bashed him over the head with a baseball bat. So the next words that came out of his mouth were to the effect of: I will not support a tax increase. I will support only measures that generate American jobs and lower the cost of energy.
Dear Mr. Speaker, first please tell us how elimination of subsidies for corporates who don't need them is a tax increase? If the energy industry needs subsidies to generate jobs and keep energy costs lower, then its not being terribly market efficient, is it? And why is it okay to give subsidies using taxpayer money to, say, Exxon to generate jobs and not okay to give NPR subsidies to generate jobs?
Further, these corporates that Congress loves so much - notice we are not using the words "Republican" or "Democrat" because all Congresspeople love corporates, have in the last 10-years shut down 40% of factories employing 250 workers or more. They have been generating jobs like mad: in China. So here are industries like paper, which get "tax credits" for using alternate fuel, which is really just another way of saying a gift of the taxes Americans pay, and they send jobs off to China.
Brilliant thinking, people.
Then we have the priceless Mr. Obama. These days its suddenly become fashionable to say his problem is he is too logical. He is a wonk who thinks too much. Its not that he has no core values, its that a wonk has to be ready to change his position if new facts render the previous facts outdated or wrong. Well Gee Golly Galoshes, Miss Molly. That there our Prez must be the wonkiest wonk on the planet, because he shore do change what he says mighty quick. Back here in Iowa, where we hicks live, we call that lacking values.
Wanna example? So when Prez said he wanted to end subsidies for Big Hydrocarbon, did he say: "And I plan to use these savings to pay down the debt?" No, he didn't. He said the savings would go to create alternate energy jobs. A subsidy by any other name is still a subsidy. The Prez has every right to attack the Speaker for acting as a shill for Big Hydrocarbon. You'd think the man would have some shame and not become a shill for another industry, alternate energy in this case?
Americans have to stop talking about radical left, left, left of center, center, right of center, right, radical right. They have to start understanding their entire political system at the national level is completely, utterly, 100% corrupt. It is every bit as corrupt as that of China or India. It is no different from Nigeria or Khazakistan. The Americans have developed a system where to get elected you have to have money, and Big Money. Who has the most money? Why, oddly enough, its the corporates. Do Americans really think the corporates care who is in power? They don't. Even when one party is ahead, they will still give money to the party that's behind. Because tomorrow that party will be ahead.
Your vote counts for less than the product an ant produces when the nurse tells the ant he needs a urine sample. You have a tight clutch between the political system, the corporate system, the national security system, and the bulk of the media. There is a word for this. Its called fascism. Sure, it isn't the German variety or the Italian variety. But it is fascism no less. And the great genius of the American elite is that it has created a system under which the vote of 150-million counts for nothing, the vote of those with money and the corporates counts for everything, and yet the elite has convinced the people that they, the people, live in the world's greatest democracy. The elite is robbing you, Ms. Jane and Mr. Joe Citizen, blind, while getting you to sing "I'm Lovin' It".
So is there no democracy in America? Of course it is. at the local level you have a pretty decent democracy. You want to be a member of the Takoma Park City Council? You have to spend maybe $500 to run your campaign. You don't think the police are deploying their resources wisely in Takoma Park? You actually can say this, go to the Town Hall meetings, say it again, speak to the local press and say it once again. You don't have to be anyone for these august agencies to listen you. You don't have to have a dime in your pocket.
So in the spirit of the head Wonk aka The Prez, your Editor, who claims Supreme Wonkhood, gives you his latest Big Thought to Save America. He gives you at least one a week. Dismantle 95% of the structure of the federal Government. Dismantle 90% of the structure of the state governments. Let the big governing entity be the county. The Founding Fathers wanted for us to have democracy. They were creatures of their times, as we are of ours. So they didn't think that democracy for black people or women was neccessary. But the logic of their constitution caught up with them because we now have freedom from slavery and equality for women because of what these old, dead, white people put down on paper almost 225 years ago. We held them to their word. America is heading for 400-million people. It is impossible to have a true democracy when one entity rules 400-million people. Even if you had a hundred states, typically a state would rule 4-million. That's still way too big. If we had 4000 counties, the agency affecting our lives most directly would govern a hundred thousand people.
Each county would set up its own laws under a narrow interpretation of the US Constitution. Sure you'd have problems with interstate commerce and stuff. But when the national and state governments began taking away our freedoms, they said we'd be economically better off. First, do you want to sell your freedom for one piece of silver? Second, do you realize you aren't any more - if you are average person and not in the top 20% - getting even your one piece of silver? They've taken away your freedom, and when they feel like it they throw a copper penny or two at you. Except even the copper penny will soon be made of plastic.
A minor point. Back in the day, you need the national government to do stuff like get everyone to agree on the dollar as a medium of exchange. Now with computers doing terabits of calculations every second, you can have 4000 currencies, if that's what you want, and it can be instantly converted into electronic money worth whatever your county is worth. Ditto law enforcement. Once you needed the FBI. Now you dont: you can connect the criminal/police databases of 4000 counties and be just as efficient.
But what if your county becomes oppressive? Allow the free market to operate. People can vote with their feet.

0100 GMT April 27, 2011

Horrifically Terrible News About America's Oil and Natural Gas: We aren't going to run out of the stuff.

157-billion barrels of oil reserves, plus 1.4-trillion barrels in government owned oil shales, plus 2-quadrillion cft gas, plus 320-quadrillion cft gas equivalent in methane hydrates - the horror just goes on and on. http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Files.View&FileStore_id=04212e22-c1b3-41f2-b0ba-0da5eaead952 And thanks to David Brata who sent us the Congressional study.

Would $10/gallon gas be a disaster? Apparently not, according to this 2008 article, with thanks to Chris Raggio http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/SavingandDebt/SaveonaCar/WhatIfGasCost10DollarsAGallon.aspx

Syria and the US Defense Secretary Quote from Reuters: "U.S. and British defense chiefs played down on Tuesday the possibility of a Libya-style intervention in Syria, with Britain's Liam Fox saying there were "practical limitations" to Western military power." Technically, the US SecDef didn't say anything about limitations on US military power. He confined himself to saying that he agreed with "everything Dr. Fox said." http://www.haaretz.com/news/mideast-in-turmoil/u-s-and-u-k-defense-chiefs-rule-out-libya-style-intervention-in-syria-1.358272
So. Tell us again how this is done. You have the SecDef, who presumably knows more about US military capabilities than any civilian, and probably than any military officer, because he has to know everything about all the different services. So this gives him the right to insult the US military by saying it cannot take on Syria?
When the SecDef was going on about Libya, we said US defense, all things considered, spends $1-trillion annually. The Secretary was insisting that taking on Libya was not so simple as presumably idiot hawks were saying. We suggested that if after spending $1-trillion annually, the Secretary was very reluctant to take on Libya, the best thing was for him to resign, because all he demonstrated was his own incompetence.
In the event, the Secretary was right. Taking on Libya wasn't so simple. The US actually lost a fighter plane but not the crew. OMG! The Sky Has Fallen! We lost a fighter! Of course, even in peacetime if you fly X number of sorties you lose Y number of aircraft. And since we haven't been informed on the cause, its possible the aircraft was not lost to enemy action but mechanical failure or crew error. We're told the crew was hurt. Again, OMG! The skateboarding kid across the street seems to get hurt every day, but that's different. He's a kid. Kids are expendable. We can't risk our fighter pilots getting - gulp! - hurt. Oh woe!
This time we'd like to make two suggestions for the US Secretary of Defense. One, please resign. You can't possibly stay on after disrespecting the entire US military. Two, before you resign, why don't you have a little open debate with the Editor about US military capabilities. You can bring all your generals and admirals. Editor will bring himself. Editor's knowledge about US military is no greater than any informed generalist. After all, he's got 220 other militaries to study. The good SecDef can make his case first. Editor will not detain him - he's a busy man (that's the Editor we're talking about). It will take Editor about five minutes to demolish your argument. Of that five minutes, four and a half will go while the Editor tries to control his laughter.
Now, a lot of people have told Editor that SecDef is completely honest. That's good, we'd expect no less. Many have said the SecDef is brilliant. Sorry, no proof of that as yet - unless it was the SecDef'/s Evil twin speaking on Libya and Syria.
Editor has one question to ask everyone. Why is it so hard for an American official to anymore tell the truth? The politicians we know cannot tell the truth. But why do American officials have to lie so pathetically?
Is there any reason, half a reason, that the SecDef cant say: "Sure, we can blast Syria off the map, but you know, the military dimension is just one aspect of these issues. Things can get very complicated. Look at what happened in Gulf Two. So maybe we can be excused for not wanting to rush into Syria?" Why instead say there are limits to US military power? We're not talking China here, people.
Now, we're very sorry to have talked in such dismissive, insulting tones about a decent human being. But by his statements he (a) disrespected the US people, who pay him; and (b) disrespected the American military, who he is supposed to lead. He's also disrespected common sense, but you can't hold that against a man who works in Washingtoon. You want respect, you give respect first. SecDef is not giving his country and the people under his orders respect.
In the going...going...gone department: Yemen Arab officials are negotiating with the Yemen protestors to take the President out of Yemen forever and forever, amen, in exchange for immunity. The immunity part is holding up the works because a lot of the protestors want him tried. He's announced he's ready to Bye Bye, with immunity.
Hugo...Hugo...Hugo - where we would be without you, Comrade Hugo says NATO wants Libya's oil - and its water. Libya? Water? Don't they teach you dictators geography, any more, Hugo? Six whacks across your fat behind with a limp noodle and a time out in the corner with the "IMA Dunce" cap. [http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/26/us-venezuela-chavez-idUSTRE73P77P20110426 ]
Actual Indian Defense Budget 2011-2012 is $48-billion says Concise World Armies', after examination of the Indian budget documents. In case of confusion: CWA is us. See top of page. There's no hiding of Indian spending, which is officially at $36-billion. The rest of the money is all there and published, under different heads. The only guesswork we had to do was the spending on the military space/N-program. We estimate $200-million, which is going to upset our western friends, who would want it to be at least a couple of billion. But what are we to do. The Indians really, truly, actually spend a very small amount of money on military space/nuclear. Blame them for the low figure, don't blame us who merely bring you the news.
The Indian spending is a little under five-times that of Pakistan.
Syria Reuters reports 35 dead in the army crackdown on Daraa yesterday.

0100 GMT April 26, 2011

Syria The media says that the people of the Mideast are angry because America/The West is helping Libya but not the people of Syria. The people of Syria are hugely upset about the west's double standard. Let's assume the media is right.
Editor as ready as anyone else to beat up Uncle Sam for his alleged inaction on Syria, and the sad truth is ever since Sam has started going psychotic, it's darn easy to beat him up. But is it permissible to let reality intrude for half a mo'? Just how many crises is America supposed to handle at one time? We've gone through Tunisia and Egypt, we're in Libya, Yemen is blowing up, Bahrain would have blown up had the Saudis not intervened. The Syria crisis is the same as the others but its same in its unique way.
Bad news Number One: The Syrian security forces have not so far split. Perhaps they will, because the same impetus for change that has seen the security forces in North Africa split also applies to Syria. Syrians are human beings just like any other human beings. But right now, you have one of the most heavily armed and most repressive states in the world, second perhaps only to DPRK.
Bad News Number Two. The US President is under many different kinds of threats right now. Should he intervene in Syria and should it not easily work, the hyenas will be getting out their linen dinner napkins, fine china, and silver knives and forks in anticipation. The American people's "loyalty" is well known; the press, of course, has no loyalty of any sort.
Bad News Number Three. What happens in Syria affects Jordan and Israel. It affects Lebanon. It affects the Gulf. It affects Saudi Arabia,
If you are the Editor, you may well say "Frankly, my dear, I don't give a darn. Its time for America to openly return to its revolutionary roots." Editor is all for taking the Syrian military out. It wont be quick, but within 60 days of unrestricted bombing and naval blockade the government should be weakened enough that the rest is detail. let Jordan blow up. Let Israel feel unhappy. As for the Gulf and Saudi Arabia, they've got to go, so why not this year. And let's warn DPRK its time to change peacefully, else we're coming for you. And it would be good to let the Chinese know, quietly, "your turn is coming."
So: The Editor is prepared for gasoline rationing and general chaos. Thousands of American military personnel will likely die in the general mayhem. The global economy could collapse, but so what? It'll recover, and in any case the world needs to redo its economic system to squeeze out all the cash that's sloshing around causing trouble. America was the feared revolutionary power of the 18th century. Let it be the feared revolutionary power of the 21st Century. Let make a difference and let's do it now.
One problem. The great American people. Just for starters, its going to be gasoline at $10/gallon until the oilfields of the Gulf/Saudi Arabia are repaired, which will take two years working at military speed. The business of liberating the world from oppressors could cost anywhere up to $5-trillion - just a guess, but as good as anyone's else guess. Taxes will have to be raised big time. The reserves will have to be called up. America will have to be in a state of war for at least five years.
Anyone still with the Editor? He suspects he lost a lot of people at gasoline at $10/gallon for a few years.
When its unlikely in the extreme America is willing to make real sacrifices to free oppressed nations, why criticize the administration for not charging into Syria?

0200 GMT April 25, 2011

Misurata, Libya Saturday, Gaffy Duck delivered a parting present to Misurata after his withdrawal. He unleashed an artillery barrage on the city. You still need to keep in mind that what you and I would take to be an artillery barrage is not what the rebels take to be an artillery barrage. To them five rounds constitutes enough of a barrage that they have, in the past, run for their lives. So its likely this barrage, of which the rebels speak in apocalyptic terms, might have been a few salvos of Grad rockets. The rebels say six people were killed: you can make your own judgement as to how serious this barrage was.
Nonetheless, one presumes Gaffy's forces hit the road after the barrage because now they are out of the city, its a lot easier for NATO to target his forces. Let's see if he repeats the performance.
2-3000 people remain to be evacuated from Misurata, which is good new. Foreign workers have been caught in the middle since this business began.
The rebels are to get $150-million from Kuwait to help pay salaries. There is bad news too: a number of countries have refused to sanction Gaffy's accounts in their banks, and The Duck has been busy withdrawing billions of dollars. Of course, all is not wine and roses because Gaffy has to transship through third countries and then bring in supplies by land, where his convoys are exposed to air attack.

Musings on America's rich

(With thanks to reader Flymike for his ever prolific and ever patient expositions. We seldom agree, but that doesn't mean we should not discuss, argue, and grow.)

This statistic is well known: 1% of Americans own 70% of the nation's wealth, an inequality that is without precedent in the industrialized world. The question is, what level of income does it takes to be listed as "rich"? Moreover, how is that income earned?
If we have Mr. Joe Schmoe, who by dint of 30-years hard work now earns $300,000/year from his auto-repair shop, how fair is it to call him rich? And should he be taxed differently from the rest of the country. Take Ms. Jane Schmoe. She mortgages her house, withdraws her savings, maxes out her credit cards, and starts a resturant. Having taken the risk of a one-way ride to the poor-house - and most small businesses fail, after 20 years she is finally making $300,000/year. Would it be fair to call her rich and to tax her extra?
Most of us would agree it would not be fair to hit Mr. Joe or Ms. Jane Schmoe. They earned their money, they're taxed at a higher rate than the vast majority of us; most people would agree let them enjoy their money.
But what are we to do about a statistic we read in yesterday's Outlook section of the Washington Post. 82% of the income "earned" by America's rich is not earned. It comes because they have money, or were given money, and they've invested that money. 18% comes from their actual work.
Moreover, while our hypothetical Schmoes are likely creating American jobs, American corporations are also busy creating jobs: but the jobs go to foreigners, not to Americans. Moreover, they keep their profits overseas to escape American taxes. So what is it these people are contributing to America?
Now, what is rich? Editor knows a number of people who make $300,000/year - indeed, since most of his cohort played the game by the rules, most of his friends make that or more. That's four times what the Editor makes as a senior teacher - assuming he was employed, of course. Editor visits his friends sometimes, and it doesn't seem to him they are rich by any measure. Almost invariably both spouses work long hours. They have nice houses, but not lavish ones. They put away money regularly. They get to go to Europe or whatever once a year.. But say these friends live in Washington DC, where the schools are - er - lacking. The $60,000/year they pay for two kids to attend private school absolutely kills their budget. That $60,000 net of tax: they have to earn $80,000 to pay the fees. These friends worry about money all the time. The ones that live in "good" suburbs have more discretionary income. Yet they too have to save absurd amounts for their children's college. And invariably there is the parent who must be cared for. These friends are not going crazy trying to pay bills, but they too work darned hard for their money.
So presumably some of our readers are like the Editor, who currently makes $2000/month including social security and pensions, and we can hear them say: "Ooooh, the poor darlings! $300,000/year and they worry about money! Hey give us that money, we'd love to have their worries."
Fair enough. But suppose you make $10,000/year after taxes. Probably you think the Editor has it made with his $2000/month.
So somewhere we have to define what rich is. One measure would be 25-times minimum wage. But regardless, Editor does not think it fair that his friends with $300,000 should have to pay higher taxes than they already do, because without exception, theirs is not inherited wealth. Their parents were of the Depression generation, and pretty much all the gave their kids was a decent college education.
At the other extreme, we have the seven Wall Street gentlepeople who in 2007, before the collapse, earned $1-billion each a year. "earned" $1-billkion a year. Because what they did is take your money and mine, pathetic as it is, and they gambled with it in the game called "Finance". When the Titanic went down, you and were fighting to get a lifeboat, and many of us didn't make it. But these gentlepeople didn't have to worry about lifeboats. They were rescued by helicopter - government helicopter, no less, that you and I helped pay for.
What value did these people add to the country? They destroyed what value there existed, they didn't lose a dime, and they're back in business and up to the same old tricks.
At some point, if this country has to be saved, people on the left and the right have to stop with the extreme positions. The right's extreme positions are well-known: Reagan and Bush II cut taxes, saying this would boost the GDP; it didn't. In anticipation of all that revenue that never came, Reagan and Bush II ran large deficits which are killing us. (We don't count the Tea Party as right wing: they are populists of a different type - if you don't agree with our definition, Sorry About That. The right is no more ready to cut spending than the left. How long the Tea Party's courage to cut government spending lasts is another matter.)
On the left, you have people who insist that every last person in America be given Ted Kennedy class medical care though this is impossible.
On the right you have people who want a smaller government, but when that smaller government hits them, they will scream as loudly as the left, On the left you have people wanting to help the poor, but they haven't answered the question of what right does the government have to tax you and me to "help" the poor. Should it not be my choice who I help? Shouldn't the government give me a menu, asking if I wanted to pay higher taxes for X, Y, ands Z program to help the poor?
And so it goes. In this argument there is only one thing certain: the worse the economic situation becomes, the more hardline everyone will get, left or right. It will get to the point where we'll be settling arguments the old-fashioned way so popular throughout the world, with guns.
The people who run this country, the people with the money, are doing just fine. They buy the President and the Congress to keep things good for them. They don't see a problem except the mantra "our taxes are too high," as if the really rich pay the same taxes you and I do. They don't, because they can afford accountants to minimize their taxes, to the point good old honest Warren Buffett has publically said he pays a lower percent of tax than his secretary.
These people do not care about you or me. Whether you and me are left or right, whether we are Libertarian or Socialist, we are all going to get shafted - the common man already has, for real wages for the working class have no gone up in 30-years.
When Editor's youngest was young, like in Middle School, his aim in life was to save enough to buy a bunker in Idaho and live completely off the net. As he grew older, his views changed. Now he says there is 25% of society that are such gone cases they can never look after themselves. Either you be prepared to kick out of the way the dead bodies in front of your door when you go to work, or you've got to see this 25% at least has two meals a day and a room to live in.
Editor, having grown up in a really poor country, was very keen on the duty of the elite to the poor. But since he's returned to America, teaching the children of the not so well off has led him to believe that all society is doing is perpetuating dependence. He's not against paying more taxes, BTW, if the taxes go for R and D, infrastructure, clean streets and so on. This is not a selfish argument to keep "more" of his pathetic income.
And looking to the future, Editor is becoming increasingly convinced his kid had it right when the kid was 14: best to find a bunker, hunker down, and maybe after 50-years America will straighten itself out. Then, maybe not. Rome didn't straighten out. Neither did Britain, Spain, France, the Ottomans to name a few empires.
At least if you have an acre of land and a bunker, you don't have to pay a mortgage or rent.

0200 GMT April 24, 2011

Misurata, Libya we take no joy in noting that the Main Stream media is wrong, as usual, concerning the fall of Misurata to the rebels. MSM says this is of not much significance because the stalemate will continue elsewhere.
Actually, the withdrawal of Libyan troops of the Khamis Brigade, one of the two best in the Libyan Army loyal to The Duck, is quite a big deal. Gaffy threw everything he had into this battle. One reason was Misurata is the port for Tripoli. Now, while its always possible that the withdrawal is a ploy - the loyalists still occupy the airport and the outer suburbs - we have to ask if it is a ploy what is the point. Gaffy's people were firmly ensconced in the city, now they'll have to fight their way back in.
Here's our interpretation of what happened. (a) The loyalists were not able to get the supplies they needed because of NATO airpower. Their tanks had been picked off, and NATO had started working on their artillery. The rebels held the port, and they were getting supplies. (b) NATO disrupted the loyalists' command and control - a serious blow to them. (c) The loyalists lost their supply route to Tripoli via Tunisia. They cant divert through southern Tunisia because the far west is home to the Berbers, who rebelled against The Duck from the word "go". Loyalist forces beat up the rebels in the extreme west and there was quiet for some time. Then the rebels came alive once again. Naturally one suspects they had/have outside assistance, but so far we have seen no report on this. It is possible that Gaffy needs to send his troops to the west. But BTW, our information is there's less than 500 left with the Khamis Brigade. (d) If the US UAV thing did not alarm the loyalists, they should been alarmed. A UAV took out a rocket launcher, the US admits. Rebels say three tanks were destroyed. Equally, though no one has said anything, you can't hold buildings for your snipers when UAVs get active. Maybe the UAVs did not fire on the buildings, maybe the did, but people would quickly get the point. And (e) the loyalists have been fighting for six weeks now, to say nothing of battles the Khamis Brigade conducted other than Misurata. People get tired, particularly when the odds shift against them as happened in the city this past week.
The significance of this, aside from the big psychological boost, is that rebels can get supplies and reinforcements into Misurata without having to fight for Adjabiya and Brega all over again. Loyalists between Misurata and Benghazi are now outflanked. And they've been taking a beating from the air everywhere else. Its not easy sitting around when without your even knowing enemy aircraft are around your vehicles, armor, artillery are getting destroyed.
Does this mean the front is now unlocked? We dont think so. Clearly the rebels will need a good deal of training because they can advance to Tripoli. It might be three months - we'd like to see six months - before they can get to the outskirts of Tripoli and stay there. Perhaps MSM sees this as a stalemate, but it isn't. A stalemate is when both sides are out of options. But the rebels can only get stronger, and the loyalists weaker.
Indian Army's threats of a first tactical N-strike A friend of ours who actually knows much more about Indian strategic decision making at the civilian and military levels - we make no apologies, because we stick to the military details - says that unless the civilian government adopts the army's idea of first tactical use, this idea is a non-starter. He notes that in recent years the Indian Army has started to say all kinds of things which are not the official viewpoint. Given the civilians always have been, and always will be, in tight control of the military, there is no significance to the Army's posturing.
We agree with our friend. At the same time, we noted that these pronouncements, which are more loud thinking at senior leadership levels, are meant to up the psychological pressure on Pakistan and to tell Islamabad "we don't give two hoots about your N-threat. The Pakistan Army, since it runs the country, cannot afford to assume that the Indian army doesn't have the government behind it.
In a sense these are all stupid games - Cold Start, tactical N-response from Pakistan, India says it will preempt if it sees any evidence Pakistan is about to use tac nukes etc etc. India is not about to attack Pakistan. Moreover, the tactical nuclear weapons will have no effect. You need 20-60 successful multi-kiloton strikes to halt an armored division. Because of vast improvements in battlefield communications, an attacker can now disperse his armor far more than was possible in the past, and concentrate far faster. A successful Pakistan tactical strike will not hit a tank company, it may at best hit a tank platoon. And as yet we are not even factoring in the consequences of Pakistan going for nuclear release, and the consequences of unleashing these weapons over your own heavily populated territory. The complications are endless, the practical gain is small.

0100 GMT April 23, 2011

Libya We breathed a sigh of relief when several media sources said that the US will keep two drones over Libya at all times, not send two drones to Libya as was said in a first report. This makes more sense, seeing as US has the capability to keep 48 UAVs in the air 24/7.
David Ignatius of the Washington Post is against the deployment because, he says, logically Gaffy Duck is the target and the Arab world will get upset at the use of UAVs. While we are certain the UAVs will be extensively used against urban targets and convoys, since the US wants The Duck to go, logically he is high on the target list. But we are unconvinced the Arab world will be upset. The important question is what will Libyans think. It seems reasonable to assume that if Gaffy is Quacked, the Libyans will be thrilled and delighted. We may agree the Pakistanis are highly upset about the use of UAVs. But that's because they feel their sovereignty is being violated. Right now we don't think many people will care if Gaffy's sovereignty is violated. And in any case, what is the difference between Quacking The Duck with a 2000-lb bomb and with a Hellfire missile? Those who oppose the bombing campaign will oppose the use of UAVs, but those who support the campaign to get rid of Gaffy should actually feel highly pleased: because the collateral damage radius is so much smaller with a Hellfire, air support for the Libyan rebels should significantly increase in lethality even if it is just a few UAV strikes.
Given the low number involved, we wonder if the UAVs are Reapers rather than Predators. The Reaper can haul around 14 Hellfire missiles.
Meanwhile, reports quote rebels in Misurata as saying they have taken several vantage buildings from loyalists along Tripoli Street. The rebels managed to cut to supply line to the buildings which forces snipers to withdraw. Looks like someone is giving the rebels advice because they have not so far shown this level of sophistication. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8468816/Libya-Misurata-rebels-dislodge-Gaddafi-snipers.html
Meanwhile, BBC gives an estimate of 480 civilians killed in Misurata since the start of fighting, plus 120 rebel combatants. (See same article as above.)
Bahrain and Syria readers will wonder why we have mentioned these two countries for weeks. In Bahrain the US Government has acquiesced in the crackdown because US wants no further instability in the Gulf. Also, US seeks to limit spread of Iranian influence; democracy takes a second place.
Re Syria, despite the government's continued repression - 75 people reported killed yesterday alone - no one wants Syria to become democratic, least of all Turkey, Israel, and US. The Syrian dictator may be on the US's "do not invite" list, but he has given the region a stable, predictable regime. Everyone is scared of what effect a democratic, populist government would have on Israel. US was worried about Egypt too, but it has close ties to the Egyptian military, which has informed everyone it will continue to abide by all peace treaties. Also, in Syria there is no indication that the security forces have split, as has happened in Yemen.
So at this point there's not much point in discussing Bahrain and Syria.

Pakistan's reaction to Indian Cold Start doctrine
Mandeep Singh Bajwa and Ravi Rikhye

· Pakistani concern over India's Cold Start doctrine has begun to border on panic. The doctrine requires that instead of the usual minimum 10-day mobilization time, the Indian Army should be able to launch at least 8 brigade+ thrusts into Pakistan with zero warning. The objective is not just to grab territory before the Pakistan Army can react, it is also 9intended to get inside Pakistan's nuclear decision-making cycle. India will declare a ceasefire very soon after an offensive begins, rendering the threat of Pakistan nuclear weapons moot. Also, Pakistan will have to dorect these weapons against its own territory, which will obviously limit its options.

· While the testing of the 60-km Haft 9 battlefield missile, allegedly carrying a sub-kiloton warhead, has received attention and been touted as Pakistan's answer to Cold Start, the Indian Army believes this is another example of Pakistan seeking to use psychological tactics to deter India. The Indian Army does not take these threats seriously and has no intention of being inhibited on account of Pakistan's N-arsenal. The Indian position is that the weapons of both sides are unusable for a variety of practical reasons.

· Of greater concern to the Indian Army is the conventional warfare revamp Pakistan is undertaking with the intention of slowing down Cold Start thrusts. Pakistan is particularly concerned with its perceived vulnerabilities in the Chenab-Ravi corridor which is covered by two reinforced divisions of its XXX Corps. The concern began when India split its XVI Corps into two, with a new HQ IX Corps dedicated specifically to offensive operations in this corridor. Pakistan's worry is that a breakthrough here will (a) permit Indian forces to hook around Pakistan's West Kashmir defenses, forcing a general withdrawal from Kashmir, or (b) a pincer operation by Indian IX and XI Corps will pinch out the salient forward of the line Lahore-Sialkot.

· Accordingly, Pakistan is boosting its corps reserves both for its XXX Corps and the Lahore-based IV Corps. It has already boosted reserves south of Lahore down to the Rann of Kutch. Pakistan plans also to raise two new divisions for an Army Reserve Center, thus providing it three strike corps to match against India's three. That requirement was changed to six divisions: one each for the four plains holding corps and two for a new strike corps.

· The difficulty Pakistan is facing is a serious shortfall of resources. After the 1999 Kargil War Pakistan identified a need for five more divisions to stop an Indian counter-offensive in the plains in response to a Pakistani attack on Kashmir. Two of those divisions have been raised (Corps Reserves V and XXXI Corps). But first, the new raisings are largely a rationalization of existing loose brigades. Second, Pakistan is stalled: it has XXX Corps Reserves under raising, again, mainly by a rationalization of existing loose brigades, but has been unable to make headway for the IV Corps Reserves, which will also consist of formerly independent brigade. Meanwhile, there seems no hope of the two armor/mechanized divisions for the new strike corps of coming up any time soon.

· Aside from blowing the nuclear trumpet, Pakistan is greatly strengthening its fixed defenses, starting first in the Chenab-Ravi corridor, to be followed by the Ravi-Sutluj corridor. These two corridors have always been the most heavily fortified. It is analyzing a move to shift armor reserves closer to the International Border to better provide against a surprise Indian attack.

· On its side, India has been undertaking a massive expansion of capabilities. Its 2011 GDP is seven times Pakistan's, and will keep increasing. So resources are available in plenty. Among India's changes are six enormous programs: (a) increasing the Army's capacity for airmobile operations; (b) an all-out effort to enhance the Air Force's strike capabilities; (c) a complete reequipment of artillery; (d) an infantry upgrade; (e) an enhancement of battlefield missile capabilities together with an expansion of longer range systems and ABM systems; and (f) adoption of a netcentric capability for the Army, complete with a big increase in the number of UAVs.

· More important, the Indian Army has most lately decided to seize the initiative on the question of N-weapons. Till now Pakistan has been able to define the issue with few, if any, reactions from India. The Army has now begun saying in messages directed at Pakistan: "If you go on talking about how you're going to counter Cold Start with N-weapons, we may well have to use our N-weapons preemptively against your ground forces, in support of Cold Start."

· We can all agree this is psychological posturing. But so is Pakistan's ever-continuing threat to use N-weapons on the battlefield. The difference now is the Indian Army has grasped the uses of psychological warfare. It has decided to continue letting Pakistan define the N-debate is counterproductive, and that India must seize the psychological initiative as much as the initiative in conventional capabilities.

Further letter from Sparsh Amin

In my view, there are two axioms to keep in mind when it comes to Pakistan and nuclear weapons: (i) The Pakistani establishment has an all pervasive and all consuming paranoia about everyone in the world conspiring to rob them of their nuclear weapons capability. (ii) There is always some sort of an implied "If you attack us then we will loosen control of our nuclear weapons" threat in their public posturing on nuclear weapons issues. This is the nuclear version of their usual negotiating position of having a gun pointed at their own heads. I think the Hatf 9 is their way of saying they are willing to stretch the command and control measures for their nuclear weapons to the point of spreading them out to corps and division commanders with the implied threat being "Any attack on Pakistan and these commanders might take matters into their own hands". I think another implied threat is that a Pakistani corps or division commander who feels his formation is on the verge of being overrun might have nuclear weapons and might resort to using them in a suicidal manner.

0100 GMT April 22, 2011

About time, Sam We were gnashing our teeth at the latest stupid pronouncement by the US administration onLibya - more of the Gaffy Duck has to go but we're not committing any troops thing - when the announcement came that US will deploy strike UAVs against Libyan targets. Indication are the first armed missions (as opposed to unarmed recon, which the US has been flying) flew on Thursday, but did not attack targets due to bad weather.
The UAVs should make a big difference in Misurata. For example, there is still at least one building where loyalist snipers are active. Since UAVs can make out individuals on the ground, perhaps clearing out this building is something the US might do.
Of course, the US has committed precisely two drones. We don't know the cycle time, but it seems US will be able to sustain one strike a day. Will that suffice to save Misurata? Unlikely, unless the drone are also scouting targets for strike aircraft. Its all a bit confusing.
On Wednesday, rebels entered a building they thought was clear of snipers. Loyalist troops fired on the rebels from surrounding buildings. The rebels fled. Is there some way of telling the rebels that the idea is not to run but to fight back?
One for the rebels They managed to capture a town, Dhiba, on the border with Tunisia; 100 government soldiers fled, about 10-13 surrendered to Tunisian border security forces. This is the first time there has been any victory in the west since Misurata was besieged. The rebels have frequently attacked Dhiba after the town revolted against Gaffy, but loyalist troops fought them off each time, till now.
UK sends amphibious group to Cyprus The group consists of HMS Albion, an LSD, HMS Ocean, an LPH, HMS Sutherland, a T23 missile frigate, and a support ship. "elements" of 40 Commando are embarked, though the two amphibious ships can accommodate a complete commando.
Ostensibly the idea is an exercise, but there is speculation the Royal Navy might be preparing to make hit-and-run raids against Gaffy Duck's forces. Certainly the group would be a big help is getting assistance to Misurata.
Ivory Coast A unified army has been formed, including the troops of both the former and current (legal) president. This is good news. A group loyal to the former prez, called the Invisible Commando, refused to join. So the former prez's troops have taken it on themselves to take care of this lot, their former comrades. Fighting is underway in a suburb of Abidjan where the Invisible Commando is holed up.
Fukushima Japan has urged residents in the 20-km danger zone around Fukushima N-power plant to evacuate. A reporter spent 5-hours wandering about in the zone and accumulated a dose of 50-microsiervets, about what an air traveler between Los Angeles and New York would accumulate. This shows that radiation has dramatically reduced. We assume with a 10-microsierverts/hour dose you don't want to be living in the zone, but why now stop people from going to check up on their property and livestock?
The government says radiation has come down - the most affected village is showing 4-microsieverts/hours, sixteen times higher than the normal background radiation for the village - but it wants everyone out as a precaution.
See http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/RS_Changes_to_evacuation_zones_2104111.html for further discussion.

Letter from Sparsh Amin

The Hatf 9 has a claimed range of 60 kms and not 100 kms.
Starting from around 2005 or so, the Strike Corps (combined with at least one Holding Corps) have been exercised at a much higher tempo. These exercises centered around the Strike Corps's armored divisions have now become an annual affair. This is something that seems to have gone largely unnoticed by those in the media, academia/think-tanks, and the blogosphere that like to comment on military and security issues. Last summer, it was I and X Corps and this summer, it is going to be II and XI Corps. One of the interesting aims of this summer's exercise is to be able to have a division sized battle group from II Corps launch combat operations within 48 hours of the commencement of the exercise. Obviously, this aim needs to be qualified with which brigades are going to be mobilized from which divisions of II Corps and how far are they supposed to travel and where are they supposed to begin their attack. Nonetheless, if this aim of 48 hours for a division-equivalent from II Corps is achieved, then I for one will be impressed. Just two to three years ago, it used to take about 96 hours to achieve a similar aim during these exercises.

0100 GMT April 21, 2011

Libya Italy and France also to send 10 military liaison staff to join UL's ten in advising on organization and communications.
Since Gaffy Duck has thousands of paid mercenaries helping him, we see nothing wrong in a few dozen Euro advisors. we accept many readers will feel that the dispatch of advisors exceeds the UN authorization. Our position on that is clear: west needs to stop the hypocrisy and using UN as a veil. State clearly what yare your interests in Libya and whack whosoever you need to whack. The hypocrisy, however, is annoying in the extreme. One thing to be said for Gaffy is he is not being hypocritical. He's announced anyone who opposes him deserves to die. Man is mad as a rabid squirrel, but he's honest in his madness.
Rebels claim gains along Tripoli Street. BBC says rebels have forced snipers out of one building in a market area and are choking access to a tall building which, a surrendered sniper says, holds 60 more.
Three ships deliver several hundred tons of humanitarian aid to Misurata, take off 1500 African workers. Five thousand workers still left to be cleared. UN delivers one humanitarian shipment to west Libya via Tunisia land border.
Rebels still cannot figure out how come Gaffy Duck's artillery and armor can function in bad weather but strike aircraft cannot. Rebels again display their awesome stupidity.
Reports that loyalists are circumventing embargo and are bringing in POL via Tunisia.
US to send $25-million in "non-lethal" aid. Please not to laugh, blankies and bunny slippers and hot cocoa are very important in winning wars.
Reports from Tripoli says Gaffy Duck's Extremely Humanitarian Regime is in full swing: thousands of young men have disappeared from their homes in the capital. Meanwhile, reported that The Quacker says that he built Minsurata, it is his to destroy. Man needs a better PR machine.
UN says the deaths of 20 children in Misurata constitute a major crisis etc. Hmmmm. So what does the UN have to say about children killed in Afghanistan/Pakistan in air/drone strikes? Any thoughts on Congo, where plenty of children - and adults - still die every week? Bad stuff happens in war. Unless The Duck is pulling children from their homes and killing them, 20 child deaths don't mean a thing. None of which means Orbat.com doesn't want to see Gaffy removed ASAP. By all means execute this man. But you can't make 20 child deaths the reason for your intervention - at least not with a straight face.
World's largest bond firm dumps its Treasury paper Pimco, a US company, is the largest manager of pension funds in the world. It has sold all its US Treasuries because it feels the bonds are over-priced and this is a good time to get out.
People keep wanting the market to have its say. When it does have its say, you get people like the US Administration saying S and P is not competent to make a judgment about the strength of US Treasury bonds. While we agree there is no such thing a real free market, not in this world at least, who is supposed to make that call? The agency that issued the paper in the first place? Does US Administ5ration see no conflict of interest here? "I issued this paper and I am telling you only I am capable of judging its worth?" Amazingly, this is what passes for logic in Washington these days.
The US Military is a bunch of hacks You can have the best darn military in the world, and the US does. But if you don't have good military leaders, your military is worth diddly.
Washington Post said yesterday that the man everyone agrees is the best candidate to take over from General Petreus in Afghanistan is Candidate X, but he's not getting the job. Why? Because the military has decided it needs the general who is best at selling the war to an increasing skeptical Congress and public. So General X is being sent off into the bureaucratic labyrinth at home as head of Forces Command.
Please tell us again, someone, how the US is not a washed out has been for all its enormous economic and military power and its energy and dedication and hard work. Of course, no one at home will be bothered about this obscene decision because no one cares how much blood and treasure is expended to satisfy the ego of hack generals, politicians, and government leaders.
A difference between the UK and the US British media reports that Wills's air force squadron mates decided to treat him to a pre-nup dinner (or did Wills decide to treat his squadron mates). So they arrive at a fancy restaurant, which says: "Sorry about that. You know you have to pre-book, and you didn't. We have neither the space nor the staff to serve you." The restaurant called another place down the road, and they were happy to take Wills and his party. Everything's cool, the squadron mates said they understand, and they had a great dinner anyway.
An American writes in and says this is so wrong. The restaurant should have made room for Wills and Company, even it meant kicking out patrons enjoying their meal. If Obama appeared at a restaurant, says the American, she would expect the restaurant to seat him regardless of the inconvenience.
Well, the writer does prove one thing. She doesn't understand the difference between a mere grandson of the British Monarch as opposed to Mr. Obama. We take this story the other way. We are highly approving the restaurant would not compromise at the cost of its existing patrons even if it was the future King of England. The restaurant proved it had class and integrity.
The future K of E goes to the executioners' block - sorry, we meant to his nuptials on the 29th of this month. He's already looking a bit haunted. He may have all of his mother's great looks, but inside he's a lot like his father. Of course, no one can beat the haunted look his father had when the knot was tied, nor his everlasting classic statement when the press asked him if he the couple were in love. "Whatever love means" said our hero. You can laugh at him but he's honest. But perhaps not the best way to start a marriage with an emotionally immature, highly romantic schoolgirl. Talking about laugh: Martin Amis, son of the famous Kingsley, says Charles has a laugh like a pig's snore. That's the Brits for you.
Can we restore the monarchy to America? The British royal family sure know how to brighten everyone's day. We nominate Al Gore for King of the US. This being America, it has to be for a limited term and the King has to be elected. What a perfect King Mr. Gore would make, considering he's made himself a billionaire by selling climate change. Self-promotion is so important in America. And he invented the Internet. AND "Love Story" was written for him. (Guess Mr. Gore hasn't cuffed on that the commoner girl in "Love Story" dies.) AND he went to Harvard, the national laughing stock. AND he got worse grades than even George "W" Bush got at Yale. It doesn't get any better than that.
Nonetheless, in fairness we have to note that Mr. Gore did volunteer for Vietnam and may have been the only non-ROTC man to go from his college. He went as an enlisted man, didn't do much, and never claimed to have done much. This puts leagues ahead of his President, Mr. Clinton, who says he never got his draft notice. Of course he didn't. The notice went to his mother's home whereas our man was at Oxford not inhaling. We are sure that Billy, being intensely legal a person (depends what you meaning of is is, another all-American classic) told his mom not to forward the notice.
(Again, Editor did not go to Vietnam, but he was not obligated in any way except by moral duty to go. He failed his moral duty. He admits it. But he broke no law. (That sounds lame even to the Editor.))

Pakistan's Haft IX and India's Cold Start

Pakistan has tested a 100-km range tactical missile allegedly with a sub-kiloton warhead as the answer to India's Cold Start doctrine. We're a bit confused, because Pakistan already has countered India's Cold Start (which so far is dead in the water though it has been official doctrine for nearly ten years) by raising four new mechanized divisions (two in service, one forming, one to be formed) to help counter Cold Start's thrusts without committing its strike reserves.
We think whoever is coming up with this idea of using short-range sub-KT missiles to counter armor attacks is not really cognizant of what they are talking about. First, a sub-KT missile requires very rapid and very precise targeting. And you need a lot of missiles, because even if one hits an armored column dead on, it will get a few tanks or APCs and that will be it. The slightest loss of precision or speed in launching means the armored column is several hundred meters further down the road and the warhead will have no blast effect.
Next, we don't think even Pakistan is so criminally reckless to use nuclear release as a first response to India crossing the border in a surprise attack (a surprise attack is tactically impossible, but lets leave intact the fantasies of arm chair generals). N-release just gives India the excuse and legitimacy to unleash its tactical missiles in the multi-KT range, so whatever advantage Pakistan gets from instant N-release is vitiated. Also, there are problems with targeting your own territory with N-weapons, particularly given the population of Pakistan keeps expanding a very fast rate.
The reality is that the best American minds could not come up with a plausible scenario for limited use of tactical weapons. In each and every scenario, the thing escalated rapidly to full release and mutual death. Just to drive home the point, Soviet doctrine rejected limited or scaled use of N-weapons. They made it clear the first N-firecracker that pops means every one including the multi-MT crackers would pop.
We don't know what the Indian Army is doing doctrine wise, but Editor has done scenarios that suggest if Pakistan uses N-weapons against Indian troops, the best thing is for India NOT to retaliate and to let the world take care of a Pakistan that resorts, at the drop of a hat, to N-weapons.
There is absolutely no chance that India will ever calmly and quietly attack Pakistan out of the blue, and Pakistan will never get the opportunity to convince the world it is a victim. All Indian scenarios are for limited strikes as retaliation against Pakistani terrorist attacks or against a Pakistani offensive to gain, say, Kashmir. This would be a repeat of 1947-48, 1965, and 1999. If India were to respond to such a scenario, we think its vanishingly unlikely the world will sit by and watch a Pakistani first-release.
So, its nice that Pakistan has a full-spectrum of N-weapons, even though it has a very small number of warheads - the estimates of 100, 200, more are simple fantasies. With N-weapons numbers are not particularly important - but that's another discussion.

0100 GMT April 20, 2011

US launching airstrikes against al-Shabab in Somalia?

http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2011/04/is_the_us_launching_airstrikes.php

Libya UK is sending 10 "senior" officers to Libya to help the rebels organize themselves better and to liaise more effectively with NATO. Also under consideration is the dispatch of SF troops and weapons. We assume the SF thing means acknowledge the presence of the UK SF in Libya and to broaden their mandate. France is also considering advisors and weapons.
Young readers can see what the problem is with this business of having sex without losing one's virginity. You neither get sex nor do you remain a virgin. From the beginning the Libya effort has been one of saying we don't want to interfere but Gaffy Duck has to go. US bears the number 1 responsibility for this foolishness. If you don't want to interfere, then don't. But if you want The Duck gone, then get your act together and do what's needed to get him gone.
Aside from Misurata, there is now no great urgency. Why not take time and build by the rebels properly? Misurata needs to be relieved, so go in and relieve it. Militarily this is not a complicated thing even if The Duck is hiding among civilians.
Qatar seems to be doing what it can It is shipping weapons to the rebels, including, it is said Milan ATGMs, though so far the media has not seen them in action. It is arranging for the rebels to sell oil. It lifted $80-million worth (1-million barrels after discounts) and is ready to take four more shipments. That gives money to the rebels to keep going.
Reports say the rebels have been seen with better radios and with body armor, both likely to have come from the UK.
Meanwhile, the rebels seem to actually have made some minor headway in Misurata with the help of allied air strikes. They appear to have retaken part of Tripoli Avenue.
Three Cups Of Tea So by now everyone knows that likely Greg Mortensen is a Class A Faker, but what is surprising us and a whole bunch of other people is that a whole lot of people including his fellow mountaineers knew he was a Faker, and a whole lot of people in the non-profit community knew he was a Faker. What's more darn nearly everyone in the development business seems to have known his model for education in the tribal regions of Pakistan was the wrong way to do things, such little as was being done.
If you are interested in why no one called Mortensen out before this, read the story in http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/19/three_cups_of_BS?page=full
Personally, till this uproar erupted, Editor had no clue as to who this man was or what he did. But Editor mentions this as a Lesson For The Young. Read on, youngsters, but carefully. Great Grandpa Ravi does not like repeating himself.
If you have to lie to make yourself seem greater than you are, do so with a bit of thought. Two personal examples, one of which he has given before.
Editor never went to Vietnam or anywhere near Vietnam. (His plans for two years with a civilian development agency in Vietnam were nixed by Mrs. R The First, decades ago.) But does Editor say he never went to Vietnam? Obviously not. Nowadays its cool to say you went. What Editor does when the conversation turns to Second Indochina - and if it doesn't of its own accord Editor makes sure it does - is to make darn sure no one who really went to Indochina is around. Then he'll mumble something like "...when I was in the rice paddies" making a point never to say which rice paddies. There's rice paddies in the Mississippi Delta, for gosh sakes. Inevitably someone will ask: "You were in Vietnam?". At which Editor looks shifty and evasive and mumbles "not really..." and stares into the distance like someone with Post Traumatic Stress Disorder. (Editor has PTSD, but it has nothing to do with Vietnam, it has to do with his several failed marriages.) If someone really presses, Editor will say: "Me? I'm the biggest coward there ever is" and make a feeble attempt to change the topic, calculated in a way that everyone stays on the topic. By now everyone is really intrigued and is determined to get to the bottom of the matter. So after being terribly evasive, Editor will mumble "...civilian development, that sort of thing." At which point someone will see the light and say: "Oh...you were with the CIA." At which point Editor laughs self-deprecatingly and says: "Me? The CIA? I can barely tie my shoelaces, you know." At which point everyone gives Editor sharp looks and is utterly convinced Editor was with the CIA in Vietnam, at which point to avoid further embarrassment Editor makes a run for the 'loo.
You get the point. Never, ever, say you were with the 5th Special Forces Group in Vietnam because everyone will instantly know you're a fake. In Editor's case the first question would be: "How is that possible, we know for a fact you can't tie your shoelaces." (Readers, Editor has to admit he still cannot really tie his shoelaces. When he gets a pair of shoes, before putting them on for the first time he ties the laces loosely and thereafter wears the shoes as slip-ons.)
Next example. Editor these days is a substitute teacher, waiting for a proper job, having lost his previous position. So he is now at several different schools and teaches in several departments in each school, so he sees many, many new kids every week.
So naturally the kids ask: "What did you do before you became a teacher?" - uncanny how they can tell you haven't always been a teacher. So Editor mumbles "I worked for the government." Naturally they ask what department, and Editor just mumbles well "here and there, this and that, raining dogs and flying cats, that sort of thing." So inevitably a kid will say: "Did you kill people?" Editor says: "I haven't killed anyone. Why should I dirty my hands when there's other people to do the job." Which is 100% true: Editor hasn't killed anyone and tries his best not to kill insects, flies, spiders and mice even inside the house. Moreover, government has plenty of other people to do the job. They're called soldiers. Needless to say, since the kids watch too much TV, they're convinced Editor was an assassin for the government. Furthermore, decades ago, Editor did work for the government - it was for a day before he was fired, and he's not saying which government. So he hasn't told a single lie to his students.
Mr. Mortensen, on the other hand, has put on record the story of how he was kidnapped by the Taliban for 7-8 days when they decided to release him. He apparently has fotos of himself with his captors. Problem is, a Pakistan official says those "captors" are identifiable as his family members, as many have their faces uncovered, and Mr. Mortensen was an honored guest at his family home.
Mr. M., you know where to find the Editor. His consultant fees are very reasonable. Any Faker can afford them.

0100 GMT April 19, 2011

And so it begins...Standard and Poor issued a statement saying that if the US did not get its deficit under control in two years, the company would have to downgrade the US's Triple-A credit rating. And the company said it saw a one in three chance that a downgrade would happen.
So consider the White House's response: we don't agree with this, says the White House's top economist. This is a political judgment, he says.
Now, son, do you understand that S & P is in the business of money and not politics, whereas the White House is in the business of politics and not money? If you don't understand this, do we need to start having IQ scores as a criterion for advisors to politicians, so that anyone 10 or less cannot advise? Under the old classification, 69-50 was a moron; 49-20 was an imbecile, and 19-0 was an idiot. So by setting the score at a minimum of 10 to be an advisor, we're not being too harsh, are we? Setting the threshold as 10 for the politicians themselves would not be feasible: no one would qualify.
What is political about S & P's warning? Any private company running "losses" the way US Government is would be down to a worthless rating. Everyone knows the US cannot keep printing paper money for ever. The US is getting away with murder right now because it has forced interest rates so low that it pays just $200-billion/year on its debt. By this maneuver, the Treasury has been saved but savers and older people have been ruined, something no one seems terribly concerned about. But if the US keeps running deficits, and as interest rates rise, there is no way the US will be able to pay its notes by printing new ones. You'll get a default. All S & P is doing is pointing out the obvious regarding US and money. US and politics doesn't enter into it.
And so it ends...The Great General Petraus said the other day there have been solid gains in Afghanistan. His criteria? For the first time in 10 years, he says, the US is starting from a baseline where the Taliban hold less ground than they did the previous years.
Let's assume this is true - and a great many people would dispute it, but let's give General P. the benefit of the doubt. Turn this statement around, and what General P is saying is that we have been losing for the last nine years.
Has either the military or the Pentagon or the White House been telling us we were losing for nine years? Obviously not, because now in America it is perfectly okay to lie outright. Not spin, but lie.
Now let us ask General P a question. If one of his commander's lost every year's battle and took nine years to turn things around so that he starts winning, would the good general keep him on? We don't think so.
But ever since the US military became all-volunteer, the American people have abdicated their responsibility to think for themselves This is what happens. How does it make sense for Republicans and Democrats to engage in a death match over 40, 50, or 60-billion dollars in the budget when we're spending $120-billion on a war that cannot be won, and that no one has any plants to win.
Criticism of Mr. Ron Paul We've heard a lot of comment on Mr. Paul's plan to cut deficits. In general, the talk runs like this: "At least he's facing the unpleasant truth, but he's shifting the burden from the old to the young, and from the rich to the poor." Fair enough, that's exactly what he's doing. We give the man credit because he's not lying about it, unlike Mr. Obama, who believes every American can have unlimited health care within the existing sums spent on health care, and even reduce those sums.
Lately another criticism has come up. This says that Mr. Paul would leave us disarmed because the implication of his plan to reduce discretionary spending drastically means major cuts in defense spending.
Here too, fair enough, and Mr. Paul is honest about his opposition to the warfare state, as much as - to use his words - the welfare state. We think he is to be commended for speaking out. How can you balance the budget without forcing the 800-kilo simian in the room - defense - on a diet?
But we'd like to ask a broader question. For Concise World Armies 2011 we calculated that the true US spending on defense - which should include homeland security - is roughly a trillion dollars. What precisely are we getting for this sum of money?
In the last twenty years we won a great victory in Iraq in 1991 - except we actually had nothing at stake. In 1999 we ran from Somalia so fast no one could call us yellow because they couldn't see our backsides, we were that fast. In 2003 we whacked Saddam, who was the main bulwark against Iran. Its nice we got a democratic Iraq out of it, but was it really our business? In 2001 we went after Bin Laden and we still haven't got him. In 2011 it's a bit unfair to say we got out of Libya, because we didn't really get into it except for a few days.
Between 1945 and 1991 the military performed an absolutely vital function: it protected the free world against Soviet communism. What has the military done since?
Mr. Paul believes - for ideological reasons - that the US should not be a warfare state. Has anyone made a cogent argument that we should continue to be a warfare state after the demise of the Soviet Union?
Ah, yes, the rise of China. What precisely is wrong with China dominating its 'hood? Confining China to the mainland is a relic of the Cold War. As for China posing a threat to the US: does anyone really believe China will survive a US nuclear strike with even 1% of American warheads?
Ooooh, but we have to have conventional war options, can't go straight to a nuclear strike, people will say. Okay. So it was American conventional forces that deterred the Soviet Union? People have to be Looney Tuners to believe that. It was American N-weapons. True then, true now re. China.
When Mr. Paul wants us to Mind Our Own Business, he's only being American. What's wrong with that now that we no longer have the money? The point is, even if you raise taxes tomorrow, there is still a question of why the US should spend more than $300-billion/year on defense against an adversary who spends at best a third that. Except for China, just about everyone in the top 25 or even 50 defense spenders is our friend.

0100 GMT April 18, 2011

Libya: See How They Run In yesterday's update (which was lost before loading), we'd mentioned the rebels have advanced back to Brega but couldn't enter the city as the loyalists were firmly in control.
Well, when they reached Brega, the loyalists unleashed an artillery attack, and the rebels ran after five were killed. Many did not stop till they reached Benghazi, leaving Adjabiya in danger. Some rebels did put up a fight at Adjabiya, and aided by NATO air strikes, retained the town - for now.
That the rebel forces are now beyond question the world's laughing stock, we'd like to ask the rebels a couple of questions.
First, have they heard of the high-tech military weapon, the shovel? Digging yourself in when you reach a new point is so fundamental it has to be done before you do anything else. It doesn't require any tactical skill. All it requires if for you to put your back into it.
Second, seeing as you have been attacked along the road. say about a jillion times, is there any thought in your fat heads about getting off the road when you get within range of Brega. If the sand cover is shallow, all you need is bulldozers to cut vehicle tracks. If the sand cover is deep, you infiltrate on foot. The rebels may well say: "You wanna for us to leave our vehicles and advance 10+ kilometers on foot? At night? Are you crazy?"
Well, no. either you charge forward on the road regardless of a few losses, or you walk. It's not terribly complicated.
Third, any thought of infiltrating using your vehicles? This means that 1 or 2 vehicles set out a time, not the scores that typically make up a rebel convoy.
Do you have any game plan other than bleating that NATO is not doing enough for you? Any understanding that clouds and dust-storms reduce visibility to the point NATO is worried it will do a blue-on-blue or kill civilians? Any understanding that when you say "why can't NATO bomb Gaffy Duck's artillery?" that The Quacker has surrounded his major military equipment with civilians? Given any thought to the reality that the way you randomly launch rockets in the direction of the loyalists, you are likely hitting nothing of military vialue, and may be causing civilian casualties?Any possibility you can understand that this is YOUR war, not NATO's? NATO can and is helping. But only you can make the difference on the ground. If you are neither willing to fight for your country, nor are you willing to submit yourself to the undoubtedly boring and lengthy process of become trained soldiers instead of a happening, please let NATO know and NATO can go home.
Meanwhile, UK and France are running out of smart bombs. Already. Despite US urging for years, their aircraft cannot carry US smart bombs. So we have just another episode in this never-ending farce.
Also, a Libyan official says $120-billion of assets are frozen overseas, but the loyalist government still has gold reserves and other money.
Pakistan Defense Budget Orbat.com's estimate of Pakistan defense appropriations for 2011-2012 is US$10-billion, about 70% more than the official request for about $6-billion. We include pensions, nuclear weapons, military space, US assistance, civil armed forces, paramilitary forces, off-budget purchases of large weapons systems, and defense production costs.
As a percentage of GDP this ois not too bad, as 2011 GDP is estimated at $200-billion. That's 5%. The problem is that Pakistan has one of the lowest tax collection to GDP rates in the world, only 10%. This is creating a huge problem because defense is eating up a lot of the money that should go for development.
If Americans think they are against paying taxes, you should study the Pakistanis. Not only are they ideologically against paying taxes, they simply don't pay them. There's nothing the government can do about it except grin and bear it.
At last: something the US can do cheaper than the Chinese Oddly, its space launches. The US company Space-X is offering 10-tons to Low Earth Orbit for ~$50-million. The Chinese say they cannot compete. And a lot of US/European firms are grumbling that there is no way Space-X can deliver such cheap launches, and that this is likely a bait-and-switch.
To be perfectly fair, Space-X has the benefit of tens of billions of dollars worth of NASA expertise built up over the decades. It also has the benefit of government R and D funds. The Chinese company is, of course, government owned and funded and that is an advantage Space-X cannot match.
The heavy lifter is the Falcon 9, which uses nine Falcon 1 engines. Interestingly the Falcon 9 design allows propellant to be cross-transferred between engines, in flight. In 2010 two unmanned Dragon crew-transfer vehicle took place. Dragon can put up to 6 crew into earth orbit. A manned version of Dragon will fly by 2013. Aside fr4om the two Dragon launches by Falcon 9, another is planned for an ISS flyby, and a fourth will deliver cargo to the ISS.
Next comes the Falcon Heavy, which may as well be called the Falcon 27, because it uses that many standard engines. This boy will put up to 100-tons in orbit; first flight is schedules for 2013. And after that there are plans for a Falcon XX, which will put 125-tons in orbit and a follow-up that will put 140-tons.
The company is also investigating a reaction of the NERVA nuclear rocket propulsion system for second-stage use. This sort of engine will be needed for manned missions to Mars and Jupiter space.
One great advantage that Space-X has is that it is not trying to make major technology breakthroughs. Rockets in the 100+ ton payload range have been around since the 1960s (Saturn 5, later Delta 4). The Dragon capsule simply builds of technology developed for the US manned space program before the Shuttle.
Right now Space-X has a contract for 12 launches (Falcon 9) to keep the ISS resupplied. So at least for unmanned cargo missions the US will not be at the mercy of Russia.

0100 GMT April 17, 2011

Letter from reader Flymike

This is not my contention:

"We asked our friend what he thought of Reader Flymike's thesis that taxation even to maintain a military may be unconstitutional. This view is apparently popular with some who consider themselves strict constitutionalists. Our friend said that this was an example of what he meant by people increasingly having views so divergent that the US may have to shift to a loose confederation." (Quoted from yesterday's post.)

Providing for the common defense IS constitutional and it is clearly enumerated in the constitution. Please see the enumerated powers in Article 1. In fact the purpose of the union was in good part common defense. That doesn't mean offense unless authorized by congress,, as corrupt and lawless as it may be these days.

I do believe in a federal govt. as opposed to a national govt. which is more of what we have today and is not in most cases constitutional. See federalism and consult the constitution.

Each state was intended to be an experiment in democracy so to speak. The federal govt. is limited by law to specific items only. See the 10th amendment and the constitution.

You are at liberty to use me as an example is you choose. I only ask that you consult the constitution as a reference to help define my view. This is a republic not a democracy. Much of what you begin to cover is in fact the issue of the resulting tyranny of excess democracy.

As for taxes. there is power to levy taxes and their use/allocation limits are defined in the enumerated powers. MOST allocations today are not authorized in the constitution. We could easily eliminate the income tax as an example and still have more than enough revenues to run the govt and arguably way too much. In fact if the income tax was eliminated revenues would only be thrown back several years. See explosion of spending and prior "budgets". Also see tax history.
Editor's apology We wrongly attributed the views contained in an article forwarded by reader Flymike to him. We are sorry for the error.

0100 GMT April 16, 2011

Latest US ABM Test A Success USS O'Kane (DDG-77) fired a Standard 3 Block 1A interceptor against a 3000-km range missile which might be a modified Polaris and hit the target 11-minutes later. Standard 3 was originally designed for short-range ballistic missiles, whereas longer range Iranian and Korean missiles can cover 2000-km and up.
The trick here was that an AN/TPY-2 land-based radar acquired the target and remotely launched the interceptor. US has already stationed such a radar in Israel. It is planning more to go with the Standard 3 missiles that will be placed in Central Europe. A radar in Japan can be modified to the required standard.
Readers may recall that in 2009 US cut back on its planned install of long-range Ground Based Interceptors for a cheaper and more efficacious alternative. Apparently the modified ship-launched Standard IA is the alternative. (as far as we know, US continues will development of ground-based long-range interceptors).
The nice thing about all this is the US Navy already has 21 ships with the standard 3IA. The only thing that worries us is the excruciatingly slow pace of testing. It seems to us the US tries to pack the maximum amount of advanced stuff into each test. This is not the way to do things. Each test should be incrementally more advanced than the previous, and tests should happen at the rate of 6-12/year, followed by changes to already-operational missiles and to new production. The risk of losing time if a test shot fails is too high, we believe.
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/shoot-down-validates-obamas-missile-defense-plan-capability-to-defeat-current-iranian-and-north-korean-threat-119937804.html
Libya A ship evacuated 1200 migrant workers from Misurata and took them to Benghazi. The ship also delivered 400-tons of supplies to the besieged city. The organization that arranged the charter has money for one more run. 8000 migrant workers fled to Misurata when the Libyan troubles started and have been living in the open. A large number are ill.
Meanwhile the loyalists continue to press their attack on Misurata. There are allegations that the loyalists are using 120mm heavy mortar cluster bombs, which are outlawed for use in civilian areas. Also there are allegations that Gaffy Duck has been conscripting teenagers to fight for his side. Two female Latin American snipers are supposed to have joined the Duck's forces. Snipers were a big problem in Misurata, but we get the impression the rebels have cleared most of them from the inner city and dock area.
Local elections in Indian Kashmir have 72% turnout These elections are for the self-governing village councils that form the basic building block of Indian democracy. Seventy-two percent is very high, particularly considering voter intimidation by extremists.

Is a new US Civil War being fought?

This proposition was put to us by a friend. He said that political debate on the role of the government, social issues, and taxes has become so polarized, we may be seeing the seeds of a new civil war, albeit a non-violent one, where Americans decide they need to separate. This would not mean and end to the United States of America. But you might end up with something akin to a Confederated States of America, where you might have states or blocks of states with quite different ways of running things.
We asked our friend what he thought of Reader Flymike's thesis that taxation even to maintain a military may be unconstitutional. This view is apparently popular with some who consider themselves strict constitutionalists. Our friend said that this was an example of what he meant by people increasingly having views so divergent that the US may have to shift to a loose confederation.
He noted that when the US was the land of opportunity for everyone, people were content to compromise because everyone did better each year. Now we have entered a phase where the old paradigms of continual growth have been disrupted, and you are getting some big-time winners and a lot of losers. People start squabbling over more and more issues and are less prepared to compromise. In many countries this has led to war and internal strife. He explained it was a fight over who gets what share that led to the breakup of the FRY. This is the continued pattern in Africa, which has seen a series of massive upheavals, including the Congo war, in which more people have died than in any war since 1945. He gave more examples: feudal Pakistan, the dispossessed in India, Iraq during Saddam, North Africa, the Gulf, Belgium, Italy, and so on.
We asked if many of these cases were political rather than economic, for example in the Arab world. He said the desire for democracy was a factor, but not the major one. The major factor is economic: one group seizes control of resources and not enough is left for the others. As is happening in the US.
We should explain our friend is not a Marxist, but an entrepreneur.
His solution is instead of sitting here wailing and tearing out our hair, with everyone seeking to impose their views on everyone else, with people becoming fanatical, we need to calmly start looking at alternatives. For example, for those who want a very low government footprint, let them have Idaho as an experimental laboratory. New York City is very liberal, and is often at odds with New York State. Let it become a separate state and do its thing.
In other words, let the free market of political ideas operate - a hundred flowers bloom and that sort of thing.
Clearly, he said, there are very major issues to be considered. For example, maybe Idaho decides it doesn't want to pay taxes for the US military. How do we prevent Idaho from getting a free ride?
Regardless of difficulties, our friend says we have to start thinking about these matters and prepare to make peaceful experiments. With a population of 310-million and inexorably climbing to 400-million, he says America can no longer make work a uniform, one-size-for-all model. Democracy, he says, works best when numbers are manageable. Below 5-million is good, 10-million is pushing it.
So, we asked, what would he say to an America of 100 states, or even 500 states? He thought this might be the model that works not just for the US, but also for big nations like India and China.

0100 GMT April 15, 2011

Editor for US President

Today we learned that Mr, Trump aka "The Donald" is a serious contender for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012. We are starting to suspect that a Democratic covert action group is funding every lala-land Republican to be found as a way of ensuring a landslide reelection for President Obama. We're not sure that Benford's Law can be applied to presidential candidates, but there seems to be just no way that such a Confederacy of Dunces can be gathered together in one place simply by chance.

The Donald's contribution to the debate on the serious issues facing America is to send investigators to Hawaii to prove his suspicion that President Obama is not a native-born citizen.

This has inspired Editor to declare himself a Republican candidate for president. But wait, you will say: hasn't Editor declared several times (a) he was born overseas; and (b) is not even a US citizen?

But you know, Editor was just sayin'. Everyone knows he jokes around a lot a lot and makes up a lot of stuff. We defy anyone to prove Editor was not born in the US. To save you the trouble: you will not, in any state, find a birth certificate saying Editor was born here. But if Republicans are not convinced by Mr. Obama's birth certificate, why should they be convinced Editor is NOT native-born because no certificate can be found? There's any number of reasons why the needed document is not to be found. A conspiracy by the Federal Reserve, the Queen of England, and the Venetian bankers is just one possibility.

The only way anyone can prove Editor is not US-born is to find a birth certificate saying he was born elsewhere. They will never find it because there is no such document. (The reason is that the Editor, as is well known, was born on Mars. But that's a joke - he's just sayin' he could have been born on Mars. Maybe he was and maybe he wasn't. Maybe he was not born on Mars but in Mars, as in Mars, California . Could be true.)

Now, you will say, but why should anyone vote for Editor? What does he stand for? What are his ideas and principles? Fair enough. Since the Donald stands for nothing and he's a leader for the Republican nomination, why can't Editor stand for nothing and also be a leader for the Republican nomination?

Terrorism is terrorism So we have this Cuban exile, who worked for the CIA and who may well have been involved in the bombing of a Cuban airliner over the Caribbean in 1976. Blowing civilian aircraft up in the sky is terrorism, just in case anyone did not know. He is also accused of participating in attacks on Cuban tourist offices, and of conspiring to kill Cuba's head of state.
So he has been relaxing in the US. At some point he got in trouble - we don't remember the story and left the US. He reentered, asked for asylum, was granted it. Then the feds got after him because he'd lied on his application. He's been tried and acquitted. One reason given is that he would be tortured if he were extradited to Cuba, or to Venezuela, who have open warrants for the gentleman. Feds were not allowed to present their evidence on his terrorist activities, we assume because the court said that was irrelevant to the point under discuss, lying on his asylum application.
So here we have a US court, with a completely straight face, saying he's face torture if extradited. So, US court, mind telling us how many times Sheikh Khalid Mohammad, alleged mastermind of 9/11 (he was not) was waterboarded?
Oh but that's different. He's accused of targeting the US. This Cuban feller is accused of targeting Cuba. We don't like Cuba, so its okay to ignore their requests for this man.
We haven't checked the foreign papers, but this US court has just handed America-haters all over the world a great victory. Right. We can sit around and say well we don't give a goose's pinfeather what the rest of the world thinks of us.
Fair enough. But let's not add hypocrisy to the list of our sins. Let's be the like the Soviets back in the day. Their response, shorn of verbiage, to the question "why did you do this?" was "Because we can". Let the US say that. Let's not pretend we're moral and other people are not.
By the way, isn't there something particularly wussy-ish about our total failure to remove Castro? He's seen off Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush I, Clinton, Bush II, and now we have Obama. So now he's going to die soon of old age. No doubt we'll claim that as our victory.
Letter from Ramnagesh Iyer "Gives arise to suspicions that the US never wanted an independent Iraq."
Of course it doesn't! I am sure you are seeing that clearly from 2001 itself, if not from 1991.

The US has never wanted an independent or strong Iraq. It is simply using Iraq as a balancing buffer ground between Iran's power to the East and the Sunni nations to the South. It was wonderful when Saddam was there - anti Saudi and anti Iran too. Unfortunately he became a major pain in 1991 and had to be taken out. Its far more difficult to play the balancing game today. If you empower Shias and there is a tilt to Iran. If you empower the Sunnis there is insurgency (especially since Shias are majority). The Israel equation complicates things all the more.
As one of the Stratfor weekly editions long ago noted, US has a clear foreign policy of ensuring there is a power balance in all regions of the world. If India becomes too strong it will favour Pakistan. If Iran is a threat, it will prop up dummy governments in Iraq or encourage Israel into brinkmanship. It is using Taiwan and Japan to try and balance China. And of course using some puppet governments in the Baltic to try and contain Russia. In Latin America it encourages its stooge Colombia to take on Chavez on the FARC pretext.
Any new truly independent strong government is a US nightmare (all noise about democracy notwithstanding), as the nation challenges global American dominance. It will do everything in its power, including war, to ensure this doesn't happen.
Editor's comment All we can say is we hope the Iraqis save Washington from its own foolishness by insisting we keep to the withdrawal date.

0100 GMT April 14, 2011

Libya Rebels say despite heavy loyalist attacks they have made "progress" in Misurata. Unfortunately, given the rapidity with which rebel fortunes change (we are putting this as politely as possible; back in the day we would have said "given the rapidity with which the rebels bug out, but that's non-PC nowadays) we can attach no credence to this report.
Re. civilian casualties caused by loyalist forces We are in no doubt that Colonel Gaffy Duck (aka "The Quacker") has been treating rebels he gets his hands on the same way he has always treated dissidents, usually giving them a one-way ticket to the afterlife. At the same time, much as we hate this pathetic excuse for a duck, we have to say contrary to what the media will have you believe, civil casualties in places like Misurata are running really low, about 10 killed a day. And we don't know how many of those ten are actually rebels.
When the press keeps reporting heavy fighting, you'd be right to ask how come in an urban area so few civilians are dying. There could be two reasons: (a) The Duck's troops are as incompetent as the rebels and can't shoot straight, not even his snipers; or (b) heavy fighting is not taking place. At any rate, massacres of civilians are not taking place.
Doesn't mean that everyone should not do their best to retire The Duck - perhaps we can send him to Elmer Fudd's property during duck season, but we have to try and keep facts straight.
Secretary Gates going all strange on us Editor calling Secretary Gates "strange" may be akin to pots calling kettles black, as Editor rates high on the Colladen-Graham Strangeness Scale. But please remember, it doesn't matter is Editor becomes more weird, because Editor is not in charge of anything. Secretary Gates is in charge of US defense, so we have a right to worry if he'd upping his weirdness quotient.
The background is this. Mr. Gates has been hinting loudly he would like Baghdad to extend an invitation for US troops to stay say, like forever. Baghdad's response has been cold shoulders.
So yesterday the good Secretary says: "If you need us, don't assume we're coming running back. And you aren't as strong as you think you are."
Oh dear. If after 8 years of training and equipping the Iraq Army, our Secretary Gates who has overseen about half that effort, says Iraq is not as strong as its neighbors, then we suggest Mr. Gates resign for demonstrated incompetence.
For all this time the organization, strength, equipment of the Iraq army has been dictated by US. As should be no secret, US has kept Iraq disarmed against external threats to keep Tel Aviv happy. So it is surpassingly strange that now Secretary Gates should say Iraq is not strong enough to stand on its own feet. Gives arise to suspicions that the US never wanted an independent Iraq.
And in any case what Mr. Gates wants, is to the Iraqis, totally irrelevant. The Terrorist al-Sadr will not accept the US staying on. He has become "peaceful" because the US has said it is quitting and it is happy to quit. But you can bet your pink booties that if US troops do not leave as scheduled, this man will start a war against the Americans and that the Government, if it fights him, will lay itself open to being running dogs of the imperialists. (Another expression we don't get. Who do imperialist dogs have to run? Why can't they sit in the lap of the imperialists and be called the "sitting lap dogs of the imperialists"?)
Here's one of his statements, quoted from Dawn of Karachi which likely took it from Reuters: “While there is no looming threat today, certainly you want to keep as much of a balance as possible” with neighbouring countries, he said. “Any time you have an imbalance in capability, the possibility that a threat will emerge is always there.” So if this true, clearly US has not done its job, and its very odd to say in effect "we kept you disarmed, we didn't allow you to defend yourself against external threats, so we now have to stay on."
Give it a rest, chief. We said we were leaving Iraq, lets leave before we get thrown out, and before our reputation becomes mud again.
Ivory Coast The president has ordered enquiries into war crimes and says the proceedings will cover his troops as much as the now deposed-by-force bad Prez. if the president keeps to his promise, this will go a long way toward ensuring an enduring peace.
Meanwhile, five generals owing loyalty to the bad Prez have sworn to the legitimate Prez. This is also good, and the president should treat them with respect. Nonetheless, he has to make clear that he cannot have them hovering in the background. Retire them, give them decent pensions, and give them lucrative sinecures in the civilian sector. Ambassadors are a good job. Head of the airline. Head of the national commodities trading board etc. You have to accommodate these men as you don't want to put them out in the cold and then have them running around creating trouble as happened with Saddam's generals.

0100 GMT April 13, 2011

Japan raises Fukushima accident to category 7 which is the highest level. It is based on the total radiation leaked from the reactors, which is 1/10th Chernobyl. In that accident, the situation was very grave because of " the instantaneous nature of the release, the failure of authorities in the Soviet Union to evacuate nearby people and restrict the consumption of milk and finally by some people's refusal to take potassium iodide tablets due to mistrust of the government." ( http://www.world-nuclear news.org/RS_Fukushima_moved_to_Level_7_1204111.html ). Altogether about 60 death have been traced to Chernobyl so far. In the Japanese case there have been no deaths, barring three workers who died in the earthquake and 14-meter tsunami) because the radiation release was gradual, and the Japanese acted promptly to evacuate people plus restrict intake of contaminated foods. Plus, of course, the Japanese being the way they are, people took their anti-radiation medicine.
While the radiation level around Fukushima is rapidly falling, Japan has ordered an evacuation of five villages outside the 20-km exclusion zone because of high spot radiation readings.
The move to Category 7 dies not mean the situation has worsened. It relates to what has happened in the past.
Meanwhile, there is a concern that the earthquake has so displaced tectonic plates that there are likely to be several subsequent earthquakes.
US Navy augments anti-small-boat defense Much has been made of the Iranian Navy's "swarm" tactics, where numerous small fast boats are sent against US Navy warships. We're not entirely sure how the small boats are supposed to get close enough to damage US warships, given the US will have air superiority if not air supremacy. Anyhows, for many years US has been installing a navalized remotely operated version of the Army's 25mm Bushmaster. The chain-gun comes in different versions, including one where it is twinned with a 49mm automatic grenade launcher.
Now the Navy is to add a 10-KW laser to the gun mount. The laser can disable attacking craft within 2 to 20 seconds depending on a variety of factors, and the aiming system is designed to keep within a 3-millimeter dispersion.
Interestingly, the idea is to get something to sea ASAP. Planned versions include an ant-UAV capability, and then an ant-missile capability. This last will have 100-KW lasers.
Editor's contribution to the Will-Kate wedding was to take a Royal weddings Quiz on the website of, we think, the UK Telegraph. Editor bombed the quiz, getting one question of 12 right. That question concerned a hymn, and seeing as the Editor spent seven years in a Church of England school, to say nothing of three previous to that in Catholic School, and last two years in an Episcopalian school, he simply had to get the hymn part correct.
Now, Editor was no fan of Diana who, he believes, was emotionally abusive to Charles. Nonetheless, us men being shallow creatures, it has to be admitted that Diana was by far better looking than Kate, who falls into the Cute category as opposed to her mom-in-law, who fell into the Great Beauty category. A lot of that has to do with Diana was just 18, eleven years younger than Kate. This youth thing as an example of the shallowness of men is also well known. And because she had a sheltered upbringing, she was a lot more - um - innocent looking than Kate, which further shows what despicable creatures men are, because they want to have fun with the girls but to marry someone innocent, as if there any innocent girls left after the men have had their fun. And since getting married to Charles was her dream from childhood, she looked a lot more enthusiastic than Kate.
Shallow we may be, but us men are basically simple, good-hearted creatures with very few wants aside from three meals a day, beer, and the occasional expedition to the bedroom. Women are very complicated, which is what makes them so difficult to get along with. Freud was once asked what a woman wants. He replied "What does a woman want? Dear God, who knows what a woman wants?" What Freud failed to note was that while women may not know what they want, they are very clear on what they don't want. And here is Greatgrandpa Ravi's advice to the young: It's actually quite easy to tell what women don't want. Its what they don't have.
Oh yes, also keep in mind women suffer from serious buyer remorse. Did we mention women have a remodeling complex which impartially extends to the furniture as much as to their husbands?

0100 GMT April 12, 2011

Shame on you, Mr. Zuma

Mr. Zuma, the South African president, lives in a democracy and enjoys the full benefits thereof. But what is good for him is apparently not good for others. How else to explain his shabby effort to confer legitimacy on the "Brother Leader", AKA Col. Gaddaffi. Mr. Zuma swept into Tripoli and swept out, declaring his mission a "huge success". The Brother Leader, he said, was ready to accept a ceasefire, and then begin discussions with the opposition. Talk about delusional. Needless to say, since Brother Leader Zuma has an equally shabby role in keeping the Brother Leader of Zimbabwe in power (AKA Robert "The Crocodile" Mugabe), his "agreement" specified nothing. No dates, no plans, no ideas for a democratic transition for Libya, and no consequences should BL Gaddaffi simply go back to killing the opposition.

We can judge how seriously Brother Leader Zuma took his own "agreement", because he proclaimed he was too busy to go to Benghazi to talk to the opposition. Another official would do it, he said. And BL Gaddaffi showed how much he valued the agreement, because (a) he did not cease his offensives while talking to BL Zuma, and (b) no sooner did he kiss BL Zuma goodbye at the airport, BL Gaddaffi launched another offensive in Misurata.

What is this great love, affinity, and irresistible attraction for tyrants that BL Zuma has? If he were another tyrant, his position would be easy to understand. But he's not a tyrant, he's a democratically elected leader. The other tyrants of Africa obviously don't want democratic revolutions in their countries. But what is it BL Zuma fears?

By engaging in this farce of "negotiations" as an "honest broker", Mr. Zuma has degraded South Africans and betrayed the people of Africa. For this gentleman we have a simple message. Resign your AU positions. Africans don't deserve you.

Ivory Coast The Bad Prez has been captured, and is the UN's safe custody. Ironically its at the same hotel where the UN has been keeping the Good Prez safe. So is the Ivory Coast civil war over?
The BBC says not so fast. Everything will depend on how the Good Prez's followers treat the ousted person's people. If there is to be reconciliation, everyone can move forward. If, however, the Good Prez's men want revenge, then the civil war will continue, it's just that there will be a different government in power.
The Good Prez has certainly been talking the talk: he has called for no reprisals, reconciliation, fact-finding investigations, guaranteed safety for the Bad Prez and his family, and a fair trial if investigations merit a trial. Now, says BBC, we have to see if Good Prez can walk the walk. (Actually, we're saying that, but that's what the BBC means in the vernacular.)
Libya Reuters reports that Tripoli residents are saying in the last week there have been attacks on army checkposts and on a police station. Since Tripoli is quite seriously locked down by Gaffy Duck (as he was labeled in a cartoon, showing we are not the only people who refer to him as Gaffy) its a mystery as to who is attacking checkposts etc.
Pakistan's General Kayani demands US reduce its SOC training teams, stop drone attacks, withdraw 330 persons the Pakistanis say are CIA overt or covert, and tell Pakistan what the CIA does in the country. Oh yes, no more CIA contractors.
We've been saying for a long time now that General Kayani is not going to be an American stooge. And we've been saying the US should get out of Dodge. At the same time, our own positions aside, General K is dreaming if he thinks CIA is going to oblige him. We're willing to be the bulk of the 330 are already gone, and already replaced. As for CIA telling Pakistan what it is up to, that's a bit thick. The US military may loooooove the Pakistan military and ISI and all that, the CIA would like to put the Pakistan military and ISI on the toilet and then flush. US military may find it perfectly acceptable it's "allies" are killing Americans, CIA does not. CIA says Pakistan is an enemy and it will act accordingly. Its no more complicated than that.

0100 GMT April 11, 2011

Today readers get two (count them, two) rants. Lucky people. For this Editor sacrificed a family dinner and a visit to the gym. But as the say, The Truth Shall Make Us Free and that's more important than family dinners and working out so that one's back is not hurting all the time from all the sitting down it requires to rant. No need to thank us - just another day of service for the American public.

Rant I: Chinese troops on Kashmir Line of Control

That the Chinese military has been in the Pakistan-controlled northern Kashmir provinces of Gilgit and Baltistan for some time is well documented. The troops are there not just for the expansion of the Karakoram Highway to six lanes - a major engineering feat, but also for mining operations. But now both US and Indian intelligence have identified Chinese troops on the Line of Control in Western Kashmir. Mandeep Bajwa says they are present for intelligence gathering and as a psychological pressure point against India. To Editor, who has always been a hardliner on Indian security, this Chinese escalation shows there is no point whatsoever in trying to negotiate with the Chinese, or to build confidence. India has bent over backward to accommodate China in the last 15 years, and China has simply stepped up the pressure each time. India needs to stop fooling itself that on national security we can do business with China.

The only thing that is going to work is a very aggressive forward policy. So the old-timers are going to say, "right, and didn't Nehru institute the forward policy back in 1959 and we got ourselves soundly thrashed in 1962?" Correct. That's because Nehru, like Mr. Obama, was very fond of the sound of his own voice and of using beautiful words. When he formulated that policy, in response to constant Chinese intrusions into Indian territory following the arrival of Chinese troops to take over Tibet, there was no military power to back it up. That forward policy was just words. The new forward policy has to be backed with much more military capability than India has - and its at least ten times more than it had in 1959. This forward policy means confronting the Chinese at every disputed point, and pushing them back at every point. It involves building up power strike reserves and switching to an offensive posture in Ladakh and Northeast India. The Army is doing this, but the government is proceeding at a catatonic pace.

But won't a new forward policy risk war? Well, the Chinese don't seem to think so. They have a very aggressive forward policy and yet have zero interest in getting into a war with India. They are fighting with intimidation. And its working. India's Foreign Secretary, an officer who is both brilliant and calm, has already said that raising tensions over the new developments is not the way to go. Well, sitting there and getting pushed some more is not the way to do it either. Like any power, all the Chinese respect is force.

Libya NATO airpower destroyed 25 loyalist tanks at Misuarta and Ajbadiya on Sunday. This is additional to several tanks destroyed over the previous 48 hours. NATO intervention allowed rebels to retake Adjabiya.
We realize people are getting impatient for results, but any strategy of attrition takes time. The degradation of a en enemy's force is not a linear process: there is a breakpoint at which the enemy simply falls apart though in theory he has plenty of men and much material left. To get to that breakpoint, however, takes time. The thing to remember is that the loyalists are not getting supplies - NATO has been hitting targets in the south with no publicity, and we suspect that besides attacking ammunition storage sites, NATO is also hitting convoys out of Chad trying to reinforce the loyalists. They will also run out of money.
Next, they cannot retake Misurata, which is the main port for the capital Tripoli. That's why the loyalists have fought so long and hard for this city, which is for them now out of reach even though they remain strongly entrenched. The rebels control the port area. Publically, two aid ships have delivered supplies and picked up casualties, but we suspect that coastal craft out of Benghazi may be delivering war material.
At some point the loyalists will hit breaking point. Sitting far away we certainly cannot say when that day will be, but truthfully, even if we at the front we wouldn't be able to tell. These calculations are immensely complex and involve psychological factors which are difficult to assess.
Japan The Japanese are moving quickly to secure other tsunami-vulnerable N-plants against the unthinkable. Kashiwazaki Kariwa is a 7-reactor N-plant that was shut down after the 2007 earthquake so that additional protection could be added. Now the owner - which is the same company that owns the 10 Fukushima N-plants - is going to build tidal barriers and water-tight doors so that flooding of the interior cannot happen. On high ground the company will construct back-up power and keep equipment to pump cooling water in case of damage.
This is all to the good, and its impressive that the Japanese have moved so quickly to start protecting themselves against another catastrophic event. Remember Naseem Talib's "Black Swan"? He was referring to financial events which the statistics people say were rare, but in reality they were common. Same thing applies here.

Rant II: Congressman Paul Ryan's Budget

Let's first try and agree: any plan that adds $5-trillion to the deficit in ten years is not cutting the mustard (whatever that expression means: how does one cut the mustard?). Mr. Ryan, of course, is hampered because he doesn't want a tax increase, he wants a tax decrease, and short of eliminating most of the Federal government - including the military - you cannot balance the budget just by cutting spending,
Still, it's a start, and its kind of sad his very modest plan is being labeled as so outré as to be fringe. Clearly folks have not quite the message that we cannot continue to spend money we don't have.
We can agree on one level we're not in a spending crunch but a revenue crunch because of the recession. But even in the several good years preceding the 2008 meltdown, we kept adding to the deficit. So on another level, it is the spending at fault, not the revenue.
Now, everyone in the center and left is piling on Mr. Ryan, saying he wants to balance the budget on the backs of the poor. Let's take this issue in two parts. One, he wants to cut back Medicare. Have his critics any idea of what's going to happen to this country if we DONT ration care by price? We're already bankrupt, if we don't ration, we will be so deep in a hole we'll be having tea with the Ozzie kangaroos.
Time to call a spade a spade (another expression we don't understand, why would you call a spade something else?) and face the firing squad: the US cannot afford the best health care for each and every person, and certainly not with the government paying it. Not unless by 2035 people want to hand over twice as much money in taxes as they are paying now. (Just a back-of-envelope calculation assuming health care eats up 35% of GDP by 2035.)
Two, Mr. Ryan believes the government should NOT be providing service to the less fortunate by redistributing income. You may not agree with him on this, but its a completely valid American point of view. People should look after themselves and be responsible for themselves. This is not penalizing the less fortunate, it's just saying they have to do more to look after themselves. Mr. Ryan wants to know, where in the Constitution does it say you can take money from Mrs. Prudent X, who has been thrifty all these years, to give to Mr. Carefree Y, who has spent his time singing in the rain and dancing in the sunshine, instead of toiling in the vineyards and all that.
Right, we can all agree that the less fortunate are in need. But how do you define need? And where do you draw the line on personal responsibility? Why have I had three kids out of wedlock when I know I cannot look after them? Why I have I let myself become a substance abuser which cripples my ability to work? Accepted that if I weigh 300-lbs, suffer from six chronic conditions, can never hold a job for long, if Mr. Ryan plan goes through, I'm shot through my rear with a fat arrow. But may be if the so called safety net were withdrawn, the next generation would straighten itself out. Even if it doesn't, Mr. Ryan is asking, why make my problem his problem?
Christian charity is fine, and we are sure Mr. Ryan is all for it. But Christian charity does not say that we must forcibly tithe to the government and let the government decide where to spend that money.
Our last comment concerns Mr. Ryan's wish to reduce taxes, on everyone and on corporations. We cannot give unqualified approval to this part of his plan for two reasons. One, when Mr. Ronald Reagan cut taxes back in 1984, he closed a great many loopholes. If Mr. Ryan's tax cut is revenue neutral, if he really plans to close the loopholes that people with smart lawyers, bankers, and accountants use to evade the nominal tax rates, we are all for his tax cut.
In the case of corporations, certainly, America now has among the highest tax rates at 37%. Ireland has 16%. we're happy to see a marginal rate of 25% if the loopholes are closed.
In the case of individuals we want to make a distinction between the 99% that earns upto $330,000 and the 1% that are obscenely rich.
By all means cut taxes for 99% of people. For the other 1%? No way. These people would have us believe that they earn their money the hard way and what business does the government have taking a chunk of it away. The reality is they earn their money because of the government.The entire structure of government is set up to make these people richer while giving the hardworking American the middle finger. Mr. Ryan should be defending the interests of the common man if he seriously believes in the Constitution. He should not be defending rapacious people who almost brought this country to its knees - and then used their power and their influence to get the government to save them. Yet these people attack the government. Maybe it doesn't say anything about hypocrisy in the Constitution, but you get what we are saying.
Now, Mr. Ryan has come out against bailouts for the rich. He's prepared to cut subsidies like those for farmers. He's noted something like 2/3rds of the bank bailout funds went to foreign banks - these banks helped the obscenely rich to get obscenely rich. These people couldn't make money if the government didn't help them. They are great at ripping off everyone, but they are no more hardworking that you or I, and certainly no smarter. They need to pay more tax, not less.
Further, Mr. Ryan has to put an end to the globalization that has enriched the obscenely rich and beggared the less fortunate. For every example Mr. Ryan wants to give for someone who is leeching off the American people, we can give an example of men and women who want to work - but for whom there is no job. Is America telling its average person: so sorry, you don't have a BA or a graduate degree, so there is no job for you at all? This is destroying the American Dream which says you'll make it if you work hard. There are tens of million of people in America who are busting their fundaments and are NOT making it. How is it right and just that a Wal-Mart worker cannot buy her weekly basket of necessities on the pay she is given, while the Waltons rake in tens of billions? And please, lets not have the Waltons say well, they're providing jobs to a million people. A job which does not pay a living wage is not a job: its bonded labor which is a form of slavery. And let's ask the Waltons how many jobs they have exported overseas for every job they have created.
And Mr. Ryan has to do something about illegal immigration Americans get paid so little because there's anywhere up to 15-million extra workers. That's fine when we're labor short. But we are labor surplus.
Now, if Editor was bargaining with Mr. Ryan, he would immediately agree that the extra taxes on the obscenely rich should be used only for one purpose. Not to expand government, not to erect hammocks for everyone, but to pay down the deficit.
Do we have a deal, Mr. Ryan?

0100 GMT April 10, 2011

The good news: next global extinction not due for 16-million years

Every 27-million years we have a major extinction on earth, 18 times in the last 500-million years. The interval has a 99% confidence. Till now the speculation has settled on Nemesis, an alleged binary companion of the Sun, which periodically approaches the Oort Cloud and knocks Oort objects into the solar system, causing a series of massive impacts. Apparently scientists have now calculated that the putative Dark Star cannot be the culprit. This is because in the last half-billion years the Sun has often passed close enough to other stars that Nemesis's orbit would be altered enough to create an Oort Cloud mess, and the 27-million year pattern does not coincide with the times the Sun has been near other stars. So relax, and pop another beer. We are glad to have brought some relief to those of our readers who stay awake at nights worrying another mass extinction might be around the corner. http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/07/12/nemesis_extinction_theory/

UN lifts embargo on Ivory Coast Ports can once again ship cocoa. Back in Abidjan, the Bad Prez's men have attacked the hotel where the Good Prez is located. The UN force in the Ivory Coast has a specific mandate to protect the Good Prez, so we may assume the force will get ,more involved than it has been so much. Under its authorization to protect civilians earlier in the week UN and French attack helicopters destroyer several of Bad Prez's armored vehicles because of the threat to civilians.
Libya: Loyalist forces take Ajbadiya on Saturday afternoon, rebels manage to infiltrate back into some areas. The loyalists used heavy weapons to get the rebels out of Ajbadiya, and apparently covered a distance of 80-km to reach the city. So the question arises what was NATO doing? NATO had no comment except to say it made attacks to protect civilians in Misurata (which we have been misspelling as Minsurata) and Ajdabiya.
Is there a change in NATO policy regarding use of air power?
Meanwhile, NATO fighters forced a rebel pilot who took off in a MiG-25 from Benghazi to return to base. Possibly like the Bears and the Mountains, the pilot wanted to see what he could see,
In light of the complete mess that NATO/US have so far made in Libya, Editor is wondering if he should stop criticizing the Government and senior military leadership of India, whom for many decades he has upheld as the epitome of strategic incompetence.
Sometimes Main Stream Media gets totally confused. A British newspaper did a story on a Libyan rebel (deserter from the Army) who got separated from his unit during fighting. He was was standing by the highway trying to get a ride back to Benghazi, where he hoped to find his unit. His hand-held radio was out of charge. The newspaper used this example to "show" how badly the rebels were organized.
Well, the rebels are badly organized, no doubt of that. But this is not an example that supports the proposition. In fluid warfare, soldiers become separated from their units all the time. As for the radio running out of charge and the man being unable to recharge, hello, people. This is called the human condition. Military rechargers are not commonly found just lying around, you know.
Indian scientist says cosmic rays also contribute to global warming This gentleman is a former head of the Indian space program and has published 350 paper, so he's not some insignificant upstart. He says a reduction is cosmic ray activity reduces cloud cover, which increases global warming.
Its important to note that the scientist is not giving CO2 a clean chit. All he's saying is that of 0.75 Celsius observed warming, 0.42 C, is caused by CO2, as opposed to earlier estimates of 0.67 C.
Earlier an Indian scientist had said that Himalayan glaciers are melting very much more slowly than claimed in a seminal UN report, and his correction has been accepted.
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article1106044.ece
Big "Uh Oh!" on wind power Reader Luxembourg sends an article from a UK Info Tech magazine that says a new analysis of wind energy supplied to the UK national grid in recent years shows that win is no more than 25% effective on average, and of course, there are times it slips to zero. This means wind is "significantly" more costly than assumed.
More bad news: the new super giant wind turbines with 100-meter blades cannot be located at the assumed distance of 800-meters from each other. They have to be 1500-meters apart. That means a given tract of land can have only one-quarter the wind machines previously assumed. Which still leaves the 25% figure. Maybe the cost of the machines can be brought down and an inexpensive storage system invented, like pumping water back into hydel reservoirs - though there's an obvious energy loss in this method.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/04/07/wind_power_actually_25_per_cent/
Pakistan-US intelligence cooperation remains frozen says Reuters. There has been no thaw since January 2011. Pakistan is attempting to restrict US intelligence operations including those conducted by parallel organizations on contract to the CIA and may want a reduction in the small US trainer contingent which works with Pakistan CI forces.
http://www.dawn.com/2011/04/09/pakistan-intel-operations-frozen-as-ties-remain-strained.html

0100 GMT April 9, 2011

In case you're tired of being depressed about Libya and/or the US budget mess, here's something else to be depressed about. Bill Roggio indicates US intelligence in Afghanistan basically doesn't have a clue as to what its doing. In a few months, we will be completing Year 10 in Afghanistan, more years than World War I, World War II, and Korea - combined. Last year Editor spent much time saying there is something fundamentally wrong with the way Americans are making decisions, and it doesn't matter what field you are looking at: the military, the globalization, the economy, health care, education, energy, transportation infrastructure, the space program etc. etc. etc. Mr. Roggio's article is another unpleasant reminder of this dysfunction.

http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2011/04/al_qaeda_never_left_kunar_and.php

NATO not informed rebels had tanks says a NATO spokesperson of the air strike that hit a column of 20 rebel tanks. As for the rebels saying the column was advancing west and so obviously was not the loyalists, NATO says that there is so much back and forth movement that no conclusions can be drawn from a direction of advance.
NATO also says that because it has forced the loyalists to keep their armor and artillery off the battlefield, and instead rely on light trucks, the loyalists have managed to throw the rebels into panics with rapid strikes, but have not been able to hold ground. This is why the rebels come back again.
A Red Cross ship is at Minsurata with supplies for the besieged population.
Ivory Coast Sources say that the Bad Prez used surrender negotiations as a cover to regain two districts in Abidjan. After his forces fired mortars at the French ambassador's residence, French helicopters attacked the Bad Prez's compound.
Bad Prez says his troops did not do the deed and the French are using a pretext to attack him. First, Bad Prez's troops have been running around the diplomatic area, looting and and so on. Second, after refusing to step down when he lost the election he's blaming the French for not fighting fair?
Meanwhile, Good Prez's troops have been accused of killing civilians belong to the Bad Prez's tribe as the Good guys advanced. This is about par for the way things are done in Africa. The Bad Prez's guys staged a few large massacres as they retreated.
Here's something about the budget we didn't know The US Parks Service gets a budget of around $2.3-billion, but takes in $32-million/day in fees. That means the Park Service is running a profit of $7.5-billion/year. Are we missing something here?
Social Security Reader Anthony Garcia says in case Social Security is wound down, there's no government obligation to return the contributions workers have made. This is because Social Security actually works like a tax: the revenue collected each year is used to fund general government expenditures.
"When a contribution to social security is made it immediately goes to purchase treasuries and an 'IOU' is created. With the treasuries purchased by the government, the government now has revenue which goes to the general fund, and since the government is not allowed to bank money it is promptly spent. Those IOU's are not 'invested' in anything, the SS contributions are in essence a 'tax'. So when retiring baby boomers complain about the government raiding their contributions, they forget that their contributions went to things like the Cold War, building the interstate system, etc, etc. The money they get paid, is now paid by all non-retired workers in the social security system still in the work force."

0100 GMT April 8, 2011

We're wondering if there is any point in taking up readers's time with Libya news. We thought over the weekend the rebels might capture Brega. Instead, after a mistaken NATO airstrike on a column of 20 rebel tanks between Brega and Ajdabiya to the east, the rebels abandoned Ajdabiya. Maybe we should just ignore Libya for the next 3-4 months while the west and the rebels get their act together.

On the one hand you can say it was a good thing the US refused to stick around, because look at the current mess. On the other hand, US withdrawal has had a fatal effect on the effort to take down loyalist forces. The AC-130s and A-10s which are ideal for urban warfare are no longer available.

Reader Luxembourg says "kinetic military action" has fallen out of vogue as quickly as it came into vogue. That's something to be grateful for, but who knows what will come next. Maybe they'll rename the US military as the Federal Overseas Civilian Protective Service, and dress everyone in blue bunny slippers. No danger of boots on the ground in that case.

By the way, here is a picture of a "Bad President" soldier from Ivory Coast. Look at this first and then look at the pictures of the rebel "fighters". You will see straightaway what the problem in Libya is. This man is a serious soldier. The Libya rebels are playing soldier.

http://www.reuters.com/article/slideshow/idUSTRE73014Z20110407#a=190100

Ivory Coast The "Bad President" hasn't yet surrendered. From what we can tell he had a bunch of heavy weapons hidden away in his compound and his loyal troops (likely from the same tribe) gave the attackers ("Good President") a nasty shock. Yesterday the Good Guys were supposed to have conducted another and final assault on the compound; at least as of the time of writing this has not happened.
We should clarify that we say "Bad" because the man lost the election and refused to cede power. We say "Good" because the man's win was recognized by observers and the UN. Whether one will be a better ruler than the other we have no clue.
Japan A float that can store 10-million/liters of contaminated water is being readied for deployment at Fukushima Diachii. It will be available in a week or two.
another earthquake knocked out power to several Japanese N-reactors, emergency generated took over and there are no problem there, and no complications from the earthquake at Fukushima.
Pakistan A defense budget of US$5.95-billion has been approved for 2011-12 (PNR 85 = US$1). We're baffled by this because in November 2010 Dawn of Karachi said that actual spending for 2010-11 would like be $6.8-billion versus the target of $5.2-billion ( http://www.dawn.com/2010/11/27/276499.html ). The official defense budget understates actual defense spending. This is also true for India, but to a significantly lesser extent. Our estimate for Pakistan 2009-10 was almost $9-billion including border forces, border roads, pensions, the nuclear and space program, US assistance, and major weapons systems which are acquired outside of the defense budget. India's 2011-2012 official budget is $36-billion, actual is likely to be north of $45-billion.
India This enormous 4.5 to 1 disparity in spending shows why, China notwithstanding, India does not concern itself much with Pakistan anymore. Some Young Lions in Indian defense analysis believe that Pakistan has neutralized India's superiority by its nuclear weapons, but honestly, Editor at least doesn't think the Indian military is troubled one way or the other by Pakistan's deterrent. Further, in the last 2-3 years a sense is growing in India that Pakistan is on a path of self-destruction, so let's let them fall apart on their own.
Editor was remembering with some nostalgia that forty years ago he was the Young Lion, and now he is talking like a doddering grandparent about the new generation. Then he had to shake his head ruefully because compared to the new generation he is very much a doddering grandparent. You know, the archetypical balding, old, fat, and sleepy expert who dozes through conferences and then wakes up to ask a sharp, pointed question of the youngsters before going off to sleep again, just to remind them the Old Boy is still very much around and still has a sharp mind. Wouldn't do to tell the youngsters that when he dozes at conferences his dreams consist of unlimited quantities of chocolate and young women of considerable - er - charms, and that his sharp questions are totally fake.
Enjoy yourselves, kiddies, while you can. One day you'll be old do. Heh heh heh.
Social Security Reader Flymike suggests both government at all levels return the money their workers have invested in pensions, and let the workers switch to their own 401s. We could say people have turned out to be really terrible at managing their 401s, but Flymike would simply say its not the government's business to baby along stupid citizens. he might further add that Social Security (which we suspect he believes is unconstitutional) was not intended as a retirement pension, but solely to ensure that widows and dependents were not reduced to penury on the death of the worker. Retirement age was 60, male life-expectancy was 61, and widows a few years more. No one was planning on paying social security for 30 years.
Our question is: any clue how much federal, state, and local government would have to give back? if its in the trillions, then this is not feasible.
Government shut down We read one poll has voters equally divided between blaming the Republicans and Democrats for the impending shutdown, and another bunch blaming both parties. Seems to us if the government shuts down Congress should also be furloughed. It's hypocritical to complain federal workers cost too much when your weekly pay check is $3000+, you have premium health care, and a generous pension after just a few years of service. Not to mention for federal workers to take money on the side is illegal, which it is not for Congress.

GMT April 7, 2011

So you thought wave and wind energy are renewable sources?

We did. And we were wrong. Apparently wave and wind power can be depleted with negative consequences for the environment. http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21028063.300-wind-and-wave-energies-are-not-renewable-after-all.html

Rethinking evolution

So in recent years people have noticed that evolution, including speciation, can take place very rapidly, within decades versus the textbook millions of years. But the cases discovered were thought to be aberrations. Well, it looks like very rapid evolution/speciation may be the norm. http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21028061.300-why-evolution-is-going-nowhere-fast.html?

Ivory Coast the bad President, though surrounded in his residence, has not surrendered. His troops fought off one attack. The rebels are gathering for a second one. Obviously he can't last long, but also apparently no way out that is acceptable to him has been found. He says the troops of the good President want to kill him and his followers. That's probably a reasonable deduction. So between being slaughtered after surrender and going down fighting, we suppose the later course is preferable.
Libya NATO vows to protect Minsurata, and says it is flying a lot of sorties. This is in response to rebel criticism that NATO is not doing enough. 1000 sorties, including 400 for strike, were flown in the last six days; and in the last 48 hours 350 sorties were flown. NATO says that the port at Minsurata is now open for the rebels, so seaborne resupply from Tripoli and Benghazi will help the defenders.
A tanker has put into Benghazi to load 1-million barrels of oil, the first export since NATO intervened. Nationality of the buyer is unknown, it might be Qatar. Clearly releasing impounded Libyan funds to the rebels would help, though also clearly governments holding that money ($100-billion or so) are going to want to be very careful who gets the money.
So with the US sitting on the sidelines, NATO says it needs more fighters. So the Brits have changed the mission of 4 Typhoons doing air superiority to ground attack. Four more? Is that a misprint? Surely its forty more, not four?
Nope. Its four. Worth noting that a modern fighter costs in the $100-million range. A Sumner class destroyer of World War II cost $8-million in then year dollars, Which happens to be $100-million today. So when single fighters cost as much as a destroyer of yore, sending four fighters is sort of akin to sending a reinforcement of four destroyers back in the day. This is kind of a silly comparison, but then sending four fighters is also kind of silly when UK has seven squadrons of Tornado GR4s.
Fukushima Daichii The leak of radioactive water has been stopped and now engineers are preparing to pump nitrogen into two containment structure to eliminate the possibility of a hydrogen explosion such as affected three reactors.
The main problem right now seems to be to get reactor cooling pumps going. Till that happens, water has to be pumped from the outside, and that creates a build up in storage pools. That's why the Japanese had to release 11.5-million/liters to the ocean, though from now on it appears that water will be pumped into tankers.
Japanese fishermen are well and truly angry about the water release and say all this business of low radiation doesn't help them one bit as no one is going to want their fish. The company owning the Fukushima 10 will pay compensation left, right, and center, and may have to be nationalized before it goes bankrupt.
Estimated cost of rebuilding after the earthquake/tsunami is $300-billion. Confirmed dread and missing are at 27,000. Two reactor workers were found dead inside one of the buildings.

0100 GMT April 6, 2011

When it comes to software, these days usually Editor wants to squish Firefox's CEO with a stale pie. No sense using a fresh pie, as the person will probably thank you and scoff the pie. Today's OOW (Object of Wrath) is Adobe Acrobat 7 Pro. It is not letting Editor delete pages in a PDF - the infamous "bad parameter" error. Spent four hours today on the problem, with no resolution. In the past saving under a different name or printing to the PDF printer usually worked. Not today. Thank you, Adobe Acrobat. We love you too. We're keeping a stale cherry pie in the freezer just in case...

Brega changes hands again Is the ninth or tenth time? We've lost count. Gaffy's forces fired artillery and rockets and the rebels again did their disappearing act. The other day five artillery rounds sufficed to see the rebels running all the way back to Ajbadiya. This latest retreat we have no information on.
NATO says it is focusing on Minsurata because that's where civilians are most in danger, but a spokesperson says loyalists are hiding armor and artillery within cities and using human shields to protect the equipment. They then sneak around in light vehicles, from one city to another, do their thing, and sneak off somewhere else. An innovative way of fighting which certainly needs to be studied.
The rebels are criticizing NATO's response as too slow, saying they provide coordinates of loyalist convoys and NATO doesn't get around to attacking them in timely fashion so the convoys escape.
No one needs to be a military expert to understand what's happening. NATO knows from Afghanistan that people given mistaken coordinates or have a score to settle with some other groups and deliberately give wrong coordinates. So all NATO is trying to do is to make 100% sure using their own sources. Given that NATO is about 1000 times more sensitive than the US on civilian casualties, there is no way this process will speed up except in case where NATO ground troops verify the information.
One dictator, at least, bites the dust This is the Ivory Coast Prez, who rigged his November 2010 re-election and still lost, then refused to step down. Yesterday he opened negotiations with the UN to surrender after supporters of the internationally recognized president took the Bad Guy's last bastions in Abidjan.
The Bad Guy prez is denying he is in negotiations, but reports say the Good Guy's prez's fighters have surrounded the Bad Guy's residence, where he is holed out with his family in a basement shelter, so he may have few options.
Singapore National Service Recruit cant carry his pack, uses his maid for the job Back in the day, before armies had organized logistic trains, when the Sultan or the Emperor set out on campaign, hordes of people accompanied him including women to do the washing and - er - provide entertainment. Many nobles and soldiers traveled with their families. But even back in the day, we don't think an officer or a soldier would have used his maid to carry his pack on marches.
So Singapore is in an orgy of self-criticism, wondering if its young men have gotten too soft. The answer is terribly complicated (not). After doing a 5000-page computer analysis (not), we concluded the answer is "Yes".
To further add to the "softness" the young man has apologized to his commander and is getting counseling for his negative attitude.
Heavens above. This man doesn't need counseling. He needs a 100-km timed punishment march with full load, and every time he fails to complete the march the clock needs to be reset and he has to redo from the zero kilometer mark. A couple of weeks of this, his attitude will be plenty adjusted, and the Singapore Armed Forces may have a soldier who doesn't need his maid tagging behind him.
We will refrain from asking an obvious question: if this person had to have a servant, why a maid? Why not a man servant? Unless this soldier has to be tucked in only by his maid. Good Grief.
Fukushima Daichii Usual stories about radioactivity millions of time more than permissible being released. World Nuclear News http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/RS_Large_release_of_water_0404111.html says according to fish and food samples taken, a person would have to eat contaminated fish for a year before reaching 0.6 msev of radiation. http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/RS_Large_release_of_water_0404111.html.
Other reports say airborne radioactivity in the area is coming down. as is ground and sea radioactivity around the area where contaminated water had to be discharged to make way in the storage pools for really contaminated water.
Nonetheless, buy no means are we suggesting that there is no problem. Obviously it is going to take months to bring the problem to an end and then there will have to be studies for a long-term solution. Obviously there is a tremendous psychological toll. The government has to err on the side of safety.
Yesterday Al Jazzera said that the New York Academy of Sciences had stated there is no safe limit for radiation - any radiation is bad. That's a point of view, sure. But then Al Jazz said the Academy had said almost one-million people died because of Chernobyl. We emailed the Academy, asking if they said this. No reply as yet.
Pensions We just wanted to note that on most cases, beneficiaries of public pensions are hardly to blame for the pension shortfall. The people who invested the money paid by individuals and matches paid by the governments used overly optimistic rates of return, and knew they were using overly optimistic rates of return, and also never put in the full match promised by the government.
Yes, there are cases of pension abuse, notably one gent in - where else - California gave himself four jobs simultaneously in his city and ended up with six pensions.
Okay, so because a few police or teachers of military officers or doctors or whoever are corrupt, do we eliminate police forces, schools, the military, the medical profession? When corporations and their CEOs turn out to be corrupt, do we shut down private enterprise?
As for eliminating pensions and replacing them with 401s, please to note the historic experience is individuals dont do very well at managing their retirement money.
At this point several of our readers can say: "Well, that's jolly well their fault, why should the government be managing or guaranteeing or whatever 401s any more than public pensions?" Certainly that is a valid point of view if you believe in less government. But that has nothing to do with the imbroglio over current pensions. We are told there are cases where employees in some local governments do not contribute anything to their pensions. Sure. But most people have to contribute just as they do to a 401. And as for government employees getting the same salary when times are bad, remember, they get the same salary plus the usual step increase when times are good. In really bad times, they don't get step increases and sometimes not even inflation increases.
In Massachusetts, for example, we read yesterday that employees contribute 11% toward their pensions and the state contributes 3%. Is that exorbitant, particularly as that pension partly compensates for lower salaries than in the private sector?
Reader Flymike often writes to us saying the government is too big and needs to be drastically reduced. That's a valid point of view, and if the people think their government is too big, let them vote to reduce it. But the government didn't get big of its own accord. As this country has gotten more and more people, and as the world has gotten more complicated, people have demanded more services from the government.
Our sole point is that since Americans are no longer willing to pay for government by raising taxes, we can't go on financing the government using deficits. If we don't stop with the deficits, the markets will force a stop because interest on American debt will rise so high borrowing will come to an end. Better to bite the bullet (BTW, isn't there a concern for lead poisoning when one bites the bullet?) now in orderly fashion than be forced to bite many bullets.
Its clear by now the deficit cannot be ended by cutting spending alone. Aside from social security/medicare, which the government funs off taxes, the US Government spends $2.5-trillion a year and takes $1-trillion in non social-security/medicare taxes. So you'd have to cut government by 60% to balance the budget. If you eliminated social security/medicare you'd not just have to stop collecting those taxes, you'd have to pay back the money people have already put in. Rand Paul's proposal for $5-trillion of cuts over ten years is a start - but remember, it relies on closing loopholes as well as cutting spending.
Anyway, good luck to the people of America.

0100 GMT April 5, 2011

Rebels enter Brega, most run away New York Times reports that rebels, led by professional soldiers, entered Brega and moved steadily to the center of the city. Then five rounds of artillery fire landed near the advance and 25 trucks of rebels ran all the way back to Ajdabiya. So there you have it.
Meanwhile, fire from loyalist forces in Brega is dwindling; the supposition is the loyalists are running out of ammunition. If this is correct - and at some point it has to be correct - then as we've said there can be no stalemate at Brega or elsewhere. With more and more tanks and guns knocked off by airstrikes and less and less ammunition, sooner or later the town has to fall to the rebels. The rebel arrival at least permitted the evacuation of civilians who had been trapped for days.
Back in Tripoli and other cities NATO has been attacking loyalist targets inside the cities. The big problem that NATO will encounter in Tripoli is that the city is home to lots of Gaddaffi supporters, so even without their tanks/artillery, the loyalists could put up a long fight.
The question is, will they? That Gaddaffi is under severe pressure cannot be doubted, particularly with two of his sons (who are rivals) proposing that they take over from him and lead Libya to a constitutional democracy. But the loyalists have to be spaced out to think that the rebels will find them acceptable. This just shows how bizarre autocrats who have been in power for decades can get - complete loss of touch with reality. The rebels are not opposing Gaffy per se, but the entire system of repression which he heads. His sons are his chief lieutenants, so its peculiar the sons think they can say: "hey, we'll rule instead of dad and make you free" and the rebellion will end. But that the loyalists have now asked for a ceasefire several times in the last two weeks shows something
India, the land of a million mutinies We learn that at the present pace of justice, it will be 300 years before pending cases are finished. That's without counting the new cases in the next 300 years.
Then we learn that a foreign cellular company purchased shares in an Indian cellular company, and was slapped with a capital gains tax. In the normal world, capital gains is slapped on the seller, because its the one making a profit. Kind of like saying you just bought a house, you have to pay capital gains. Apparently some bureaucrat just came up with the idea when he was sitting on the throne during his morning constitutional, and without any debate or analysis the buying company got a demand for tax.
Mind you, editor is not a fan of India becoming a magnet for global investment. Outside money that comes in today can go out tomorrow. Sure India needs money, apparently $1.5-trillion (its 2011 GDP equivalent) just for infrastructure. But you want take money in a way there can be no run on your currency and reserve. Acting irrational is not the best way of slowing foreign investment, which wasn't the bureaucrat's intention anyway. He just wanted everyone to know how clever he was.
The Florida Pastor Something odd has happened. The Koran burning Florida pastor has lost half his flock since last year when he originally came into the news. His church now has 30 members and is heading for bankruptcy. Further, when he put the Koran on trial before burning it, not one member of his flock came forward to accuse the Koran of calling for murder etc. Essentially, this would mean no one agreed with his decision.
We're quite amazed. We'd think with all the negative publicity about Muslims killing Christians and so on that more Americans would be up for Koran burning.
Of course, this part of the story is not going to the news in the Islamic world.
You gotta love the American governors who have refused to see Guantanamo Bay detainees either tried or jailed in their states. They say they are worried about retaliation.
Really brave people, no? And by the way, do they own their states so that if they don't want Sheikh Khalid Mohamed or whatever his name tried in a federal courthouse in their state the feds have to put their tails between their legs and slink off?
We have an idea. Since these governors refuse to participate fully on the GWOT, the feds should withdraw their military, intelligence, and internal security cover from these states.
BTW, isnt this the same guy who was waterboarded about 250 times or are we thinking of someone else? Is this a good time to mention the US executed Japanese military persons responsible for waterboarding American prisoners?
And why would anyone need to be waterboarded 250 times or even three times? Cant American torturers get their act together? Can this country do nothing right anymore? Have we become so - so- so European?Grumble. Mumble. Complain. Whine.
This kind of thing happens only in America, of course, the land of a million clowns
Debka.com says Saudi has annexed Bahrain with the later handing over control to Riyadh of military, internal security, economic, financial, and foreign affairs. The ruling Bahrain king has been given a status coequal with the Saudi princes. Debka says the agreement has not been made public. http://debka.com/article/20817/
Anyone know anything about this?

0200 GMT April 4, 2011

Ivory Coast Fighting in Abidjan continues. One million of the city's 4-million people are displaced. France sent 350 army reinforcements yesterday, and French troops have seized the airport, presumably in case further evacuations of foreigners are required.
Libya Editor prides himself on being able to keep figures in his head, but even he's getting confused. Looks like the rebels took Brega and lost it again, making 8 times the city has changed hands, and it now appears they are preparing for another attack on Brega. Correspondents say they didn't hear any airstrikes, but this might be because high winds are blowing. BBC says government forces are reluctant to engage rebels because of NATO air strikes. That can mean only that at some point Brega is going to fall.
A rebel leader has announced the formation of the first rebel brigade entirely made of of former regime soldiers. The problem the trained soldiers are having is keeping untrained fighters from rushing back and forth. They've been told to stay several kilometers back from the front until called by the regulars, which will likely be never.
Our information is that the rebel brigade is only 800-1000 soldiers, but is expected to grow.
Meanwhile, Turkey sent in a ship to evacuate 400 wounded and civilians from Minsurta - apparently the rebels have access to the port, but their area of control is not wide or deep enough to assure safe evacuations. The ship was protected by two frigates and 10 F-16 fighters. It has been waiting four days offshore for permission to enter the port. The Turks decided they had to go in anyway. There was barely any time to notify wounded that the ship had arrived: many casualties are treated and sent home because the hospital is overwhelmed. The ship had to pull out before more evacuees could arrive. We'd assume that the Turks landed medical supplies and food/water because the hospital is very short of supplies. We're unclear if the Turks would deliver ammunition. The ship put in at Benghazi early today to pick up more wounded, fighters and civilians, before returning to Turkey with the casualties.
Sweden has committed 8 JA39 Gripen fighters to the NFZ in Libya. The aircraft should be in action today.
United States has said it will now attack targets unless requested by NATO and with clearance from Washington. Not a problem. European NATO has more than aircraft committed to the operation now that any potential air defense threat has been neutralized. Time for NATO to get used to operating without the US. Bye bye, US, and thanks for the fish.
Also meanwhile, the western media has started its Weeping and Wailing routine. Oh, there's a split at rebel HQ, oh, the rebels are not making progress at Brega, oh, this is going to be a stalemate and so on and so forth. People, people, relax will you? Of course there's dissension at rebel HQ. Of course the rebels haven't taken Brega for good. Does it occur to the media these things take time? We're sure there will be several setbacks before Gaddaffi is gone. That's the way war inevitably happens.
The reason most people have forgotten the realities of armed conflict is that back in the day we didn't have 24/7 news coverage and 24/7 news "analysis". Analysis is now done using standard templates. No one has the ability to do any balanced reporting or analysis, they have to fit events to match the template.
Stop reading about Libya for six months. You'll have greater clarity on what's happening, in the fall.
Goldstone says Israelis had no policy to deliberately target civilians in Gaza 2008 The South African judge who condemned Israeli attacks on civilians - and Hamas too, in the Goldstone Report says that the Israelis have cooperated with him and investigated many cases of civilian casualties. He says so far he has not seen evidence that Israelis deliberately targeted civilians, though he has expressed concern at the opacity of Israel Army investigations and hearings against accused soldiers/officers.
The judge said when he produced the report that the Israelis refused to cooperate so he was forced to rely on evidence from the Palestinian side.
Another coup for the American defense private sector Ta Da! The American defense private sector strikes again! The life-cycle cost of the F-35 has escalated to $450-million per aircraft. As an example, Lockheed says Canada's basic unit cost is $75-million per aircraft, but the Canadians say the actual cost will be over $150-million. One hundred percent escalation, and the plane hasn't even entered squadron service. Well done, Lockheed. So now what's going to happen is the foreign customers - and quite likely the US - will have to cut orders. Then the cost goes up even further! Ta Da! Lets hear it for the efficiency of America's defense private sector companies!
Yo, peaceniks! Not too worry: soon weapons will be so costly no one will be afford to lose them in war. We'll be back to beating each other with rocks and sticks.
http://tinyurl.com/4yzy8u4
We hate this, but the dollar bill's gotta go The effort to get Americans to switch to $1 coins has flopped because Americans don't like the weight of the coins. But the Government says switching to coins could save $500-million a year. And saying buh bye to pennies and nickels would save at least another $42-million, which is the loss the US takes on making the coins.
So: we hate the coin too, it is like, so fake. But we have to do our bit to reduce spending, so we support this idea.
We have another idea, not to save money but to restore the dollar's lost dignity: knock one zero off. India, are you listening? And the Indians could really save money too.
Inevitably: overheard at school "she's so short of memory chips she's really slow." Back in Editor's day it was "dim bulb" and "tube light". Tube lights used to flicker and take time to come on.

130 GMT April 3, 2011

We regret due to homework due we are unable to do a full update.

Ivory Coast Fighting in Abidjan continues. Troops of the illegal president retook state TV. Fighting continues around an army base and the presidential palace. Rumors say at the base the illegal president's troops are fighting amongst themselves.
Libya Al Jazzera quotes a rebel who was trained by Egyptian and US Special Forces that rockets are being sent to Libya via Egypt. he didn't know if the weapons originated in Egypt or that country was a transfer point. Now, since President Obama has told us there will be no boots on the ground, obviously the rebel trainee is mistaken about the American Special Forces. Our secret sources confirm that the trainers are not Americans, but the famous Cirque du Soliel which was headed for a performance in Ndjema, Chad, and got lost. They came upon desperate Libyans begging for training so they decided to pitch in. As is well known, Cirque du Soliel members do not wear boots
The plane that was in the vicinity when rebels started firing an anti-aircraft gun at between 2300 and midnight was an A-10. We guess the rebels have learned the hard way you do not make sudden moves around an A-10. Sorry about that. In all fairness to the rebels, they have said no blame attaches to NATO.
Afghanistan The good people of Kandahar decided to stage their own riot over the Koran burning. NPR correspondent was told by a police official the Kandharis did not want to leave the glory of defending the Koran to the Mazir-i-Sharif people. Say, any chance you folks over there can defend the Bible and stop killing people found with Bibles?
Japan 11,500 confirmed dead, 16,500 still missing, and can reasonably be assumed to be dead. Japanese are hesitating on debris clearing operations till all bodies are cleared. This respect for the dead is commendable. On the other hand, the dead are dead. Editor is sure they will understand if they are swept up in debris clearance because clearance is very important for the living. So far the weather has been cold, so there is no disease threat. But it is starting to slowly warm up.

Letter from Ashutosh Malik on Florida Pastor

This Florida pastor had no business burning/ destroying the Koran. While one respects the desire for America to have laws that make sense to it, this whole business of First Amendment right and therefore the right to burn the Koran is absolute nonsense. I am sure all this nonsense was more a stunt to get idiots like him to support him in some local election or community and less to do with his fight towards holding Islam responsible. I am writing this as a Hindu from India who has grown up respecting all religions.
While on one hand globalisation has made the world a so called village, it also needs to bring in more sense of responsibility and this is what we try to learn in India. In this area, the best thing that works is equal respect for every religion, caste etc. irrespective of what the various forms of the religion, caste may say or not (unless they are breaking an existing law) and therefore no nonsense about either burning Bible or Koran or Guru Granth Sahib or Torah or Zend Avesta or Gita etc.
If the world were an ideal place we could argue till kingdom comes on how every man should be allowed to do what he wants, but the world is not an ideal place and therefore it has laws. For all this First Amendment business, I am sure American laws do not allow Americans to indulge in espionage - why not take First Amendment that far? I have given an extreme example to make the point that laws are always created to have a practical, livable society not some fantasy. And this chap who burnt/ destroyed the Koran should have been helped to understand that the world is not some fantasy land where something that you do in America will not have an impact in other parts given the way we are interconnected now.
In fact you have yourselves mentioned earlier how the inward looking behavior of some Americans leads them to think that what they do is not something that can be questioned by others, while they can question the behavior of others. Each society in this world is at a different point in its development and for all the protestations that people of the first world might have, the fact is that each society will move at the pace it is comfortable with, while being impacted by forces of change that are always going to be there. We can already see what is happening in North Africa and West Asia - all part of how change impacts behavior and expectation of people, wherever they might be.
I think that a typical American who hasnt travelled the world, naturally so because the life has been relatively good in the country for the last century or so, and therefore the rest of the world was coming to America and not the other way round, hasnt developed an understanding that we in India, for example have, because we live cheek-by-jowl with people of different communities. Since we live like that, we also realise that even a minor misunderstandings can lead to stupid violence on issues related to religion, caste etc. And since we understand this and do not live in some fantasy land, we make laws that make it a point to hold people responsible for nonsense like burning a religious book and hurting the sentiments of a community. And while the society is still growing and maturing, sometimes laws are implemented properly and sometimes they are not - but they serve their purpose in usually protecting the lives of innocents.
In this particular incident, because of asinine behavior of this pastor on one hand, and the asinine behaviour of the mob in Mazar-e-Sharif on the other hand, we have had innocents dying. People who were doing their jobs of helping people in Afghanistan.
And while one hears condemnation of violence and the killings, and rightly so, one doesnt seem to hear the condemnation of the senseless act of the pastor. This is indeed pathetic. This pastor needs to be held accountable for his act.
Further, what Saudi Arabia does or does not allow has no connection with this - this act of burning/ destroying of Koran and its consequences for innocent lives cannot be condoned by comparing it what some other country does or does not do. Separate issues entirely.
Editor's note

Mr. Malik is justified in asking what Saudi has to do with the subject in hand. This is an old spiel of the Editor and he left out many connecting sentences. As long as Saudi is allowed to support and fund Islamic extremism around the globe, the problem of Islamic fundamentalism cannot be solved. We don't mean to say that taking out the Saudi regime will solve the problem. But it would make things easier.

Editor's objection to demands that the Koran be shown respect is that it seems the countries that demand this the most are the countries that show the least tolerance to other religions, Hinduism and Christianity included. Editor wants US, at least, to adopt a quid pro quo on this issue.
It is accepted by most everyone in the US that the First Amendment has its dark side. For example, I can dress up in a robe and hood and burn a cross on my lawn. (I can't do it on someone else's lawn because I am violating the other person's rights.) I have the right to foul speech, incitement, call for treason and rebellion, hatred against others and so on. Unpleasant as this is, Americans feel having the government legislate what is right and wrong would be even worse, and they have a serious point here. Espionage is not covered by free speech because it involved stealing and selling/trading government secrets. But it's worth noting that the US probably cannot prosecute the New York Times or Wikileaks for releasing classified US cables unless it can prove the NYT or Wikileaks conspired to obtain the classified material in question. NYT and Wikileaks are protected by the First Amendment.
The pastor's act was not noticed in the US till Hamid Karzai issued a condemnation. The pastor has been widely condemned after that. This time he made the announcement after the deed. Earlier he announced it ahead of time and after getting his 15-minutes of fame was persuaded to back down. Anyone who has a 60-member congregation is, in Editor's opinion, a bit dim. After all, the Ministry of Oprah has tens of millions of believers. But that's America: even a dimwit is permitted to have his own church, provided he's regularly filed his tax returns. In the US you can get away with murder, but not with cheating the Internal Revenue service.

Update 1300 GMT April 2, 2011

Libya: The rebels have advanced back to Brega, which has already changed hands six times. Rebels who fired an AA gun into the air, possibly because they were celebrating, attacked an attack from a coalition fighter that destroyed their 5-vehicle convoy and killed ten rebels. Earlier, a coalition attack on a loyalist convoy that included armor and artillery caused an ammunition truck to explode, killing seven civilians in nearby houses. This is the first credible report of coalition collateral damage. Personally, we think this is of no consequence, but are compelled to mention it because the coalition has gone to great lengths to avoid collateral damage. The reason for the suspension of air strikes that allowed loyalists to push rebels back from Nulfia to Ajdibya was cloudy weather. Reports speak of uniformed soldiers with the rebels who seem to know what they are doing. We thought this might mean Egyptian or other Arab soldiers had arrived to assist the rebels. There is, however, a different explanation. Some army units that had been standing aloof may have mutinied.

Ivory Coast: Fighting is reported in Abidjan. Rebels have seized the state TV station and have attacked the illegitimate president's compound. He has not been seen in five days an is apparently not at the compound. In the west of the country, 800 dead are reported in one city because of fighting. The rebels now control 80% of the country, when Abidjan falls to the rebels the civil war will be over and the duly elected president, recognized by the UN, can take office.

Fukushima Daichii: The source of the radioactive leak into the sea has been identified as a crack in a concrete water-containment trench wall. It will be sealed in a 2-day operation. That the identification took several days shows the severe conditions under which personnel are working. An experimental plant sealant that binds radioactive particles to where they have been deposited has been sprayed over 500-meters. This will permit workers to clear debris without fear of dislodging radioactive particles.

0100 GMT April 2, 2011

Fukushima Daichii

Among the big water pumpers at the site is a Putzmiester 58 (its boom is 58-meters long), capable of pumping 120,000-liters per hour. Normally these machines are used to move concrete to higher floor in sky-scraper constructions. The Germans have sent two Putzmiester 62s via An-124, the big Russian/Ukraine heavy lifter, the Dash 150 version of which has a theoretical lift capacity of 150-tons, making it the biggest cargo aircraft in the world. The Americans are to send two Putzmiester 70 units as soon as lift can be arranged. The American company can barely restrain its glee, because it says the pumps cannot be brought back on account of radioactivity (all machinery can be cleaned of radioactivity). So it goes without saying the Americans have sold the Japanese these machines at replacement cost, and the company will get two nice new shiny ones.

As the water storage tanks at Daichii are getting full, the Japanese are going to pump the overflow to an ocean tanker.

There's 50 workers at Daichii that are refusing to leave though they apparently are over the maximum exposure. They say they'll probably die, if not from the radiation then from cancer, but the job is too important for them to quit.

The Kabul Attack on the UN

There's a great deal we can say about this incident. Unusually for us, we are going to restrain ourselves because we don't want to inflame an already serious situation.
You will recall the Florida pastor of a 60-member congregation who last year wanted to burn a Koran and then was persuaded not to - he didn't need to burn anything, since he got his ugly puss on global TV (we favor the Humphrey Bogart metaphor as reader can see). Well, apparently not happy with the attention he got, this gentleman decided to put the Koran "on trial", and finding that it sanctioned murder and many other sins, decided the Koran had to be destroyed, which was done.
Okay. Now switch to Kabul. A mob attacks the UN offices, and kills four security guards and three staffers, none of whom were from the US.
Right. Now we have to be tolerant. That's the slogan of the day these days, isn't it. Respect every culture and celebrate every difference.
That said, we think its time to rethink this tolerance thing. Indians definitely carry it way too far and Americans are doing the same thing. It is time to admit that there is something about Islam as it is practiced that is not right. It's no sense parroting that Islam is a religion of peace. First, reader Ramnagesh Iyer has shown us that the Koran is NOT a book of peace. There's no sense trying to find excuses. There are some strains of Islam, like Sufism, that are exceptionally tolerant by any global standard. And guess what? Muslims in Iran and Pakistan are doing their level best to kill tolerant Muslims.
And there's no sense in saying "well, Christianity was also not a religion of peace five hundred years ago." This is not five hundred years ago. By that logic, Muslims should have no access to antibiotics till 2450. Or to cell phones. or to cars. Or to plastics. Etc.
Yet the Saudis don't let Christians build churches in their country, even as they insist Muslims have a right to build mosques in other countries. Even to bring a Bible into Saudi Arabia is a crime, leave alone to preach. Where is the justice, the ethics, the morality in this? Christians are being murdered in Pakistan. Anyone care to guess what our champion of democracy, Hamid Karzai, would say if American Christian denominations wanted to build churches in Afghanistan?
The solution for Afghanistan, is easy. Get the heck out. In Fiscal 2011 its costing us $120-billion. The army and police we are building for the Afghanis cannot be paid for by the country for 50 years. For decades we will have to give money. Meanwhile, back home, there is no money for anything. Everyone knows by now the excuse "We don't want AQ to establish a base again in Afghanistan" is totally spurious. AQ never had a base in Afghanistan. OBL was based there as a kind of resident alien, a green card holder, if you will. AQ's business was conducted in Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, other countries. But OBL even then wasn't head of AQ, which has no head. US Government should stop trying to fool its own people.
In our opinion, the Florida pastor was wrong to burn a Koran. But this is America and he has a First Amendment right to burn a Koran. He doesn't have the right to kill Muslims each time Bibles are confiscated by Islamic authorities.
It doesn't get simpler than that, does it?

0100 GMT April 1, 2011

Fukushima Daichii

Radiation in one Japanese village exceeds IAEA danger limits and consideration is being given to evacuation. The problem is Cesium 137, whose half-life in the body is 70-days, long enough to cause problems. There are treatments to flush Ce 137 out of the body. The Number 1 reactor control room has power, thus advancing the shut-down because workers can now get the cooling pumps inspected and if neccessary repaired. But the situation is still very difficult for workers, as power to the rest of the plant is not restored and they are working in the dark with limited illumination. Power to the control rooms of 2 and 3 is not restored. Re the trenches, it appears radioactivity at some is due to the tsunami flooding capturing aerial radioactivity rather than a containment breach. . At unit 1 the radioactivity is a low 0.4-msev/hour (250-msevs is the maximum allowed per year for workers). Unit 2 is still a danger at 1000-msev/hour. Unit 4 measurements have not been possible for various reasons. We have not seen anything on trench water radioactivity at Unit 3; measurements were due to be taken yesterday after debris has been cleared. Last time 3 was measured the flooded interior was giving 170-msev/hour which severely limits the time workers can spend at one time. Work is on to remove ~9000-m3 of contaminated water - that 9-million liters and about 2.8-million-gallons, quite a major job in its own right. For more detail, read http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/RS_Further_evacuations_a_possibility_3103111.html and http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/RS_Tsunami_likely_filled_trenches_3003112.html

Here Come the Clowns, Again US must be the only country in the world where the President orders a clandestine operation and two weeks later a government source tells the media that the President has ordered a clandestine operation. The Clowns of Washington are so far gone that they don't think this is a least bit strange.
The Libya Rebels Reader Luxembourg has forwarded several articles on the rebels, who by now are better known to the media, at least, as media has been accompanying them. First, to put it simply, the rebels are a rabble without training. Second, though many army units refused to fight the rebels, the number of defecting soldiers appears small. Third, at least one media person estimates there are only 1500 rebel fighters: one thousand civilian and five hundred soldiers. Fourth, the rebels have no planning and they don't believe in stuff like reconnaissance.
Well, we knew this earlier, but the Editor at least did not think the situation was bad. His own estimate is there are 3000 fighters, but this is revised downward from an earlier estimate of 5-6000 (which was not discussed in these august columns).
The upshot is, you can give the rebels all the weapons they are asking for, unless more regular army units can be persuaded to get into the fight, the rebels are not going to know how to use them. There is, for example, no Armor Operations for Dummies: You too can be Rommel or Guderian in 30-minutes.
Now, the alliance has stepped up attacks on loyalist heavy weapons. It is likely that within days the loyalists will not be in any shape to seriously fight except in Tripoli. So perhaps the shortcomings of the rebels may not matter as much as one might be inclined to think. But we can only wait and see.
There is no need to fear Al Qaeda Lots of reports say there are likely AQ fighters running around, on their own or with the rebels. But this is one group that the west does not have to worry about. With the west providing air cover, arms, training, outlets for Libyan oil, and clearly determined to leave Libya for the Libyans ASAP, what attraction can AQ have for the citizens of this country? Zero.
That doesn't mean that AQ on its own can't create trouble for the new government. But the thing is, no insurgent group can survive without the people, or without the sea in which the fish can swim, is you attracted to Maoist metaphors. People through the Arab world support AQ because they cannot say a word against their masters. But to say people will chose AQ's brand of religious fascism in preference to democracy in their countries is a bit much. The new government will need help to fight AQ if it decides to attack in Libya, the rest is detail.
An example is the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. There was concern that the Brotherhood, being the only organized opposition group, would seize power. But now that Brotherhood members have a plethora of political parties to support, reports say the Brotherhood's membership is melting away.
Ivory Coast Reports say that the rebels are already fighting in the central city. The illegal government's army is said to be disintegrating and defecting. If so, a quick resolution (says) is possible, and cocoa exports can resume. Possibly some readers do not see cocoa of being any importance, but as far as Editor is concerned, it is the sole reason to be involved in the Ivory Coast.

0100 GMT March 31, 2011

Update got wiped out by accident. Shortened updated.

Libya Rebels have been pushed out of Brega and are on the run to Ajdabiya (confirmed by AFP). After a 48-hour pause (no reason apparent) NATO began interdicting loyalist forces to the west of Ajdabiya, so presumably we will soon be going west again. Reminds Editor of a Marx Brothers movie, for some reason.
Now NATO is considering a peacekeeping force, i.e., boots on the ground, and US says UN mandate allows it to arm rebels. We are all for arming the rebels, but these convolutions are making our head hurt.
Meanwhile, Congressman Ron Paul asks where was Mr. Obama's authority to declare war. The good Congressman is too honest for his own good. He should know this is not a war, but "kinetic military action". Nothing in the Constitution that says a US president cant engage in a kinetic military action. Besides, we are told the US presidents have routinely ignored the need for authority, starting with the first US expeditionary war that was fought - just another coinkydinky - in exactly the same place. History repeats itself.
So, BTW, is there a static military action that is the opposite of a kinetic military action?
So: just to be clear: Mr. Obama says we are not fighting a war, we are not leading, our aim is not to overthrow Gaddaffi, but our aim is to see him out of power, we will not put boots on the ground. Of course if we arm the rebels we have to train them. Presumably this will be accomplished by American instructors who will use Personal Repusler Units to hover
What can be more American than GE 10-centimeters above ground. Another solution is to issue non-American footwear to the US forces. Unless our army boots are already made in China. Then the Prrez can grandly declare "there are no American boots on the ground."
Fukushima Daichii Reactors 1 through 4 are to be written off; the method of entombment is under discussion. One method is to use cement pumpers. Nonetheless, this is not news as experts have said from the day sea water was pumped into the reactors that this was it for the machinery. No great loss, the units are almost 40m years old.
We are sure everyone will breathe a sigh of relief: the pros, the antis, and the Japanese people.
Ivory Coast Rebels previous had half the country, they have been advancing last few weeks and now appear to have control of everything except the SE quadrant. Since they started their advance they havent lost a battle. In case you are unfamiliar with the situations, the rebels are on the side of the president who won the election but then the prez who lost refused to step down. He has been declared illegitimate by the UN.
What can be more American than GE? In you case you doubt GE is a noble American company, consider the following: Of its $15-billion profit, $10-billion was earned overseas, and $5-billion at home. The export of jobs not good enough to prove GE's patriotism? How's this, then: GE paid $0 in income tax, Can't be more American than that. And then people wunner why US is going downhill.

0100 GMT March 30, 2011

Fukushima Daichii US experts say that the plutonium samples that may be from a containment vessel leak are so low that in the US, at least, ground contaminated with that level will be permitted to continue cultivation. Levels 100 times higher are deemed safe for use such as parks and golf courses. http://www.newscientist.com/blogs/shortsharpscience/2011/03/no-need-to-panic-over-plutoniu.html
At Daichii Japanese engineers are focusing on containing contaminated water to make sure it does not leech into the soil or the sea. This means they must drain the standing water in the reactors to avoid the possibility of overflowing containment channels. The water has come from two sources: the tsunami and water pumped in to keep containment ponds and reactor structures cool. This creates a dilemma: water must be removed even as more water is being pumped in. While not a happy situation, it is not a difficult process to keep the in-pumping and out-pumping in balance. Of course, with yet another job to do, the engineers will take longer, and that will increase the psychological toll, certainly on us ultra-sensitive and frightened Americans. Apparently the people within 30-km of the reactor who were first told to get under cover and then warned they might have to evacuate, are saying they are not going to leave. But this is inevitably the way with disasters: those hit by a disaster are the most courageous, cowardice grows in direct proportion to the distance from the disaster.
Decent story on the workers at the N-plants http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/03/29/japan.nuclear.workers/index.html?hpt=T2
Libya US has committed A-10s and AC-130s to the Libyan campaign. Both aircraft fly low and slow and reduce the chance of mistakes. The AC-130 in particular, is quite suited to urban warfare.
In Minsurata rebels say that families have been to leave immediately without giving them a chance to take anything with them. If they hesitate, they are provided encouragement by loyalists firing above their heads. The rebels say terrible massacres are taking place. But we have to be cautious: the rebels listen to the same news as we do, and know you only have to say "civilians are being massacred" and NATO comes galloping in. NATO is happy to gallop, and has been striking loyalist armor and artillery at Minsurata, but the loyalist forces are ensconced in the town. NATO is all to aware after Afghanistan that any civilian casualties are going to cause a ruckus.
The rebels have been pushed back east of Ras Lanuf. It took just a few minutes of fighting preceded by some rocket barrages to make them abandon their positions outside Sirte and run all the way east to Nufalia (120-km east of Sirte), which they lost followed by Ras Lanuf which they pulled out before the appearance of the enemy. Please to understand Editor is not making fun of the rebels. If someone sent a Grad 40 salvo in his direction, he would beat everyone else to the Suez Canal. But then if he lived in Libya he would have kept his mouth tightly zipped so as not to get into trouble in the first place. meanwhile, no explanation on why NATO did not interdict loyalist forces arrack east from Sirte.
A Pakistani theory of how Our Man In Lahore was released Reader VA sent us this article from a Pakistan media source two weeks ago; we've been thinking about it from time to time. http://pakpotpourri2.wordpress.com/2011/03/23/admiral-mullens-secret-deal
The article argues that the US military made a deal with the Pakistan military to get Mr. Davis released; the US military agreed to curb CIA activities inside Pakistan to the extent that only embassy-based operatives are left after the departure of 40-50 Americans living in rented accommodation in major Pakistani cities; that Davis was either coerced or told to give up the names of his Pakistani network resulting in 50 or so arrests, and was also coerced or told to give up the names of CIA operatives. Then the CIA got most wroth about the deal forced on it by the US military and staged a drone strike killing 41 people.
We know a lot of people are going to smack their heads and say "when will this drivel stop?", but it's still important to understand what's going on in the heads of Pakistanis.
First, because the Pakistan military runs Pakistan, apparently some people in Pakistan thinks the US military runs US foreign policy. No mention here of every US official from president Obama to Secretary Clinton on down who were insisting Davis be released, immediately, or Pakistan would pay.
Second, do the Pakistanis really believe a low-level security contractor (the words of the article) has the names of 40-50 Pakistani turncoats and 45-50 US Non Official Cover agents in his pocket? This gentleman must have Mr. Superspy to be running so many people and knowledgeable about so many NOCs. Easier to believe he gave up no names. There's no allegation he was mistreated by the Pakistanis, and he doesnt seem to be the kind of person to collapse if you take away his bunny slippers. He may have known an NOC or two, and his handlers at the embassy, but that would be it. He would be in touch with a handful of Pakistani turncoats, and that would be it.
Third, why on earth would the US military make a deal to free a CIA security contractor and incur enmity with the CIA? If US military is unhappy about CIA running around, would it not be simpler to do payback by refusing to help the CIA? And would the CIA, having gotten its man back, stage another drone attack on its own? Has the CIA gone rouge? And how credible is the statement that the US military negotiated with the Pakistan military? Like the CIA doesn't talk to the Pakistan military every day including ISI - which is pure militray? Hello, people, wake up.
Fourth, given there are several thousand Americans in Pakistan, 40-50 of them would be coming and going in any given week. As for rented accommodation, where else are Americans on long-term assignment supposed to stay? And if the CIA lost any operatives blown by Mr. Davis, you can be sure the next plane would bring in their replacements, and that the CIA is not sitting with its Linus Blankie, sucking its thumb, and saying "OMG! We have no resources left outside of the compound! Those dastardly American generals messed us over but good!"
Editor has made this offer before to both the Indians and the Pakistanis: if you want airtight stories to tell the world, you're best off paying the Editor's modest consultancy fees and letting him make up the stories. He can assure you no one is able to bust the stories he makes up. He has fifty years experience of disinformation operations (take away the big word and all it is is lying) and knows enough about so many things he can be truly convincing. (Readers, please notice this little pitch the Editor is making for himself. But of course neither the Indians nor the Pakistanis will hire him. They think they already know everything.)
We do need to close with a caution. The story about Mr. Davis and his provenance was given to the world by the US State Department and the White House. What is the first rule when the US Government comes up with any story involving covert US activities? You got it: assume they're doing disinformation, aka telling big fat fibs. Its not just the Pakistanis that the US Government disinformed. It's also everyone else.
PS: We don't know who/what/where/how/when/why Mr. Davis is. But all this fuss for a security contractor who shot two foreign nationals? Suspension of high level contacts, cancelation of meetings, threats to freeze aid etc etc? US went nuclear on this from Day One. Okay, its possible the US was taking a War of Jenkins Ear approach: we let those little so-and-soes mess us up on a little guy, what will they do to us tomorrow? Equally, its possible there is more to Mr. Davis and the story that we have been told.
Again, Editor does not know the truth here.

0100 GMT March 29, 2011

Very high radiation at Fukushima Daichii 200-meters from sea! Plutonium found!! Containment vessel must have been breached!!!

Ho hum. Another day, another Fukushima apocalypse. Except it wasn't. Five traces of Pu have been found. Three date from the days of above-ground testing. The origin of two traces is not yet identified, but it is likely they are from the site. Three more sites are being measured. And the levels are nowhere near harmful to humans, no work will be stopped.

Yes, there is very high radiation at Daichii 1, 2, and 3. But it's in concrete lined waste water pools which have no access to the sea. The material is Iodine 131, at 1000-msev/hour. 1 has 60-msvs/hour, 2 has 1000, and 3 has 750. Workers should not be asked to work if they get a dose of more than 250-msev total. (Ironically, the Japanese who are global robotics leaders never got around to making robots for the N-plants. That news just in precisely when we were starting to think those Japanese are supermen or something.) So the Japanese plan to drain the pools so cleanup work can resume. http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/RS_Contaminated_pools_to_the_drained_2703111.html

So what precisely is the problem that the media is getting apoplectic about? Well, the Iodine isotope of concern (131, half-life 8-days, different from the isotope we mentioned the other day, decays to 0.25-msev in 90-days) is normally found inside the core containment building. So from there the media have jumped to "Reactor breech! Reactor breech! Women and children look after yourself, we're abandoning ship!" Problem is, none of the reactors is showing pressure loss, which they would if there had been a containment breech.

So should we simply ignore the news and go back to singing in the sunshine and dancing in the rain? No. The new problem is not as serious as the media makes out, but it still its a complication no one wants. The containment breech cannot be ruled out. Till all three control rooms are back to normal and instruments confirmed as working, a great deal of concern is warranted. But not the way the media is going about it. If so, its not a happy situation but the Japanese will handle.

Fukushima is 40-years old, as we've said. Newer and planned reactors will not have the plants' problems. But we are not writing to persuade the anti- lobby that they should have an N-reactor on their back yard. We're writing to object to this amazingly stupid way the media reports. We are told that Japanese NHK has been reported the news as news. There is no spin or hype. Technical people discuss the issues in calm tones, anchors give the news without emotion. The idea is to inform, not to appeal to emotions. From the viewpoint of American media, that is a very strange concept. As america's faithful friend, the British are re-proving their bond by adopting the same stupid style. Here's purple example from the BBC 3/28/2011: "The drama at the six-reactor facility has compounded Japan's agony after the twin disaster". But the Japanese people do not seem to be in agony. They have been stoic, grave, and reserved despite a tragedy which now appears to have taken 28,000 lives. The agony part is just false writing to get an effect.

The problem of Fukushima radioactivity from another angle is at http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn20285-fukushima-radioactive-fallout-nears-chernobyl-levels.html Please to note Iodine 131 can be countered by medicine: at Chernobyl no medicine was given to children. We do not know enough about cesium's passage through the body. If you do, please write.

Libya Reports that the rebels have taken Sirte are wrong. They are still 200-km from the town. They did get closer, but a small ambush got the rebels running to the east as fast as they advanced west. But the allies are on the case: 9 large explosions have been reported in Sirte, which means that someone is starting the process of imposing attrition on the loyalists. The loyalists may yet just pull out, after all, it should be clear to anyone they cannot win. But till that happens, it hasn't happened.
In Minsurata, to the west of Sirte, loyalists showed journalists around the outer city. But they wouldn't let them go to the inner city. So the rebs are still holding out. Minsurata has been under air attack for three days. Something has to break soon.

0100 GMT March 28, 2011

While we were updating

Rebels forces have reached Nufalia, 100-km from Sirte. Alliance has Sirte under attack. Nufalia (En Nofilia) is just immediately south of Ras el Augeia, which is on the coast at the extreme right of this map http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/imw/txu-oclc-6654394-nh-33-4th-ed.jpg

To see the road from Benghazi (Bengasi) to Sirte, start with this map http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/imw/txu-oclc-6654394-nh-ni-34-4th-ed.jpg Benghazi is in the left half of the map.

In anti-nuclear heaven

The anti-nuclear lobby must be in heaven over reports from Friday saying radiation at Fukushimi Daichii 3 was at 10-million times permissible levels. That is truly a scary, scary figure. Turns out the isotope involved has a half-life of 53-minutes, so that within a day the radiation is down to safe levels. Then it turns out the first reading was wrong, the radiation spiked at 100,000 times permissible. First, you can be sure the 10-million figure will pass into popular narrative. Second, even the 100,000-times figure is enough to scare the stuffing out of anyone not wanting to acquaint themselves with the facts.
Last week on NPR we heard an expert saying that the talk about how the radiation wouldn't affect anyone was "crazy". Millions will be affected, the expert said. She spoke well, and in passionate but reasonable terms. She has a point. The radiation will travel all over the world. But - as we've noted earlier - the first radiation reaching the US was one-millionth that of the natural background dose in an industrialized country. So which figure do you want to go by?
Please to understand that we are not making fun of the anti-nuclear lobby. In Our Humble Opinion, they are way over the top in their assessment of nuclear risks. But first, it has been shown many times that people cannot rationally assess risks. This is a failing of the human mind. Thus, the anti-nuclear lobby should be waging a war on tobacco because that substance kills 4-million people a year, whereas excess nuclear radiation kills - what - 10 people? But when people are frightened, there is nothing that can be done.
And truthfully, all the older design reactors can cause catastrophic calamities if the melt down and the containment breaks. That we have had no such calamity, not even Chernobyl makes no difference. It could happen. It could also happen an asteroid we cant see will hit the earth and wipe out life. But you see, that's something we have no control over. So people dont think about it. They demand 100% assurance an N-accident won't happen. With technology there is no 100% assurance. And with nature, there is absolutely no assurance at all. The earthquake/tsunami has left 20,000 dead/missing (we may assume the missing, by now, are dead). Not one person has died of the N-accident where not one, but ten reactors were affected. But that's what we're focusing on.
Now also truthfully, there is a site planned for India with 6 giant reactors of a size never built anywhere in the world. Knowing the safety aptitude of his fellow countrypeople, the Editor would be afraid, very afraid, if he lived anywhere near that proposed complex. So you do have to go case by case, because while the new reactors may be much safer to the point no meltdown is possible, it still depends who is operating them.
Further, if the anti-nuclear lobby wasn't out there pushing, pushing, pushing, then who knows if people would bother to make N-power as safe as they are trying to do. Of course, a little more trust on the part of the anti lobby would be in order. If a reactor blows, the people who are going to lose their shirts are the concerned company and their insurance agents. A single accident causing - say - 100 deaths and widespread potential harmful radiation will bankrupt the biggest companies on earth. So lets just say an N-power company has more reason to make everything safe than anyone else.
In Editor's Humble Opinion (this is a lie because Editor is never humble), the anti lobby would get itself a huge amount of credibility if it also fought against coal and oil and all industrial processes that cause deaths, if it fought against the millions of avertable health deaths, accident deaths, gun deaths and so on. It would also help if these people backed Negative Population growth, because the problem is that more and more people are demanding more and more energy. Someone has said that to have an American standard of living (shouldn't that now be a "Swiss standard of living" as we are quite down in the standard of living ratings) and yet assure a pristine earth means no more than 10-million people. We suspect that figure is low by one order of magnitude given today's technology, so we suspect its 100-million people. That's what the anti lobby should push for.
Libya Ras Lanuf fell to the rebels yesterday and they are advancing west to Sirte. This is Col. G's hometown. The first rebel offensive stalled outside Ras Lanuf when loyalists counterattacked, and the rebels have advanced past that point.
We need to be clear that after alliance fighters finish working a city over, there is no resistance because loyalists forces sensibly decide to withdraw. So its not like big battles - or any battles for that matter - are being fought. The media, as always searching for a comfortable meme, has the rebels saying that Sirte will be a bloody fight. The meme is this is Gaddaffi's hometown, it will be an all or nothing stand.
Actually, it will not. No reinforcements have reached Sirte in the last week because no loyalist forces can move. With alliance forces (are we sounding like Star Wars here?) demonstrating the capability of destroying tanks and artillery even within cities, in a day, or two, or three, loyalist heavy weapons in Sirte will be knocked out. The way to occupy the city will be open. Even if there is a siege, the rebels can now bypass Sirte and head for Misurata, where the loyalist siege is in its 11th day. Even here, the fighting is not what one might imagine. Doctors say seven civilians were killed yesterday. Since some of those are bound to be rebel fighters, you can see nothing more than skirmishing is going on, certainly not the big battle we're being led to imagine.
There are unconfirmed reports that Gaddaffi's son Khamis has been killed when a defecting pilot flew his aircraft into Gaddaffi's compound. Loyalists say this is propaganda, and there certainly is a big amount of allied propaganda. These days the west takes the information war as seriously as the shooting war.
More sources say Gaddaffi and family are trying to negotiate a ceasefire and that Gaddaffi knows he cannot survive. The focus is on getting out of Libya alive. keep in mind these multiple sources could also be propaganda.
Kinetic Military Action Someone needs to do a study to check the connection with refusal to face reality and the fall of nations. Reader Luxembourg tells us that it is forbidden to call Libya a war. It is not a war. It is kinetic military action. The people who run America are seriously sick in the head.
Republicans and Democrats, all alike says reader Flymike, sending an article that says the Republicans are no more serious about cutting spending than the Democrats.
Well, we knew that, and you can call it Facing Reality. New Republican Congresspeople are daily facing reality as they realize they already have to start begging for money for the newt election, and him who gives dollars, wants much in return (old, wise Indian saying - Ogallala, we believe). The Tea Party doesn't care about getting reelected, at least not so far. They want spending cut because, they say, that's what they promised their constituents.
You can look at it in two ways. One is to say is that the Tea Party will not be the first, or the last, to realize that there is a special place where campaign promises go to die, and that is the US Capitol. "Born to die" was a popular, nihilist motto for Vietnam era soldiers; that equally applies to campaign promises.
The other way to say is that, well, if everyone starts out by being cynical, then we sink into an ever-deepening pit of cynicism and eventually society dies, because you can't have a functioning society if everyone is cynical. So the Tea Party, however much we may disagree with them or their economics, at least represents an effort to do something instead of cynically accepting the status-quo.

0100 GMT March 27, 2011

Update 1315 GMT

Rebels arrive outside Ras Lanuf, 150-km west of Brega. Previously, the rebel effort to advance west of Ras Lanuf was stopped by loyalists, after which loyalist forces advanced to Benghazi before the allied air intervention turned the time. Quite reminiscent of the North African campaign in World War II.

A British nuclear and medicine physicist at Oxford argues we need new ways of looking at radiation He notes that at Bhopal in 1984 the world witnessed its greatest industrial disaster, with 3800 deaths (low-end estimate) plus 8000 subsequent death (again, low-end estimate). No N-plants involved, just plain old chemical plants that we have been living next to for the better part of a century. Chernobyl caused 43 deaths, some of which could have been avoided if medication had been immediately provided to children. At Fukushima the radiation release is 1% of Chernobyl. As an example of over-reaction, the three workers who suffered radiation burns walking through radioactive water, which has ignited a new panic, are no more injured than they would be from a bad case of sunburn. The analysis is at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-12860842

Yemen Haartz of Israel reports the Yemen president says he is ready to leave within hours, if he can leave with dignity. The President is said to be negotiating his exit, according to a government minister. Then the government minister denies he said any such thing.
All this causes even your terribly blasé and cynical Editor to sit up and take notice of what's happening in the Arab world. Truly a revolution is under way, and of course, every country that gets rid of its tyrant makes it that much easier for the next one to become free.
Libya Rebels have taken Brega, 70-km west of Adjabiya, itself 160-km southwest of Benghazi. A BBC correspondent counted "two dozen" burned out tanks at Adjabiya. Reports from Misurata say that loyalist tanks and artillery have stopped firing now that allied airpower is over the town.. This town is in western Libya, but to the east of Tripoli. In Tripoli the loyalists have complete control.
A nice article on US information warfare against the loyalists at http://tinyurl.com/4mu3g98 The article identifies the Libya 9th Special Brigade as participating in the fighting along with the 32nd Special Brigade (Khamis).
Different reports say that Gaddaffi's inner circle is negotiating an exit. Nothing confirmed.
Syria Unrest is reported from at least eight town and cities. Six people were killed in the port of Latakia. Some reports speak of Farsi speaking fighters on the government side, implying Iran has send men to aid the regime. We are disinclined to accept this as true. In Syria an Alawite Shia minority rules a Sunni majority. The regime has plenty of Alawites available to fight demonstrators.
Closed mouth attracts no foot According to President Obama, intervention in Libya has saved "countless" civilian lives. Well, in the day of the cavepeople, countless meant anything more than 2> So what exactly is the Prez saying here? Is he saying there were too many lives saved to count? Only thing that cannot be counted is any infinity of anything. There is not an infinity of Libyan civilians.
Or does he mean we cannot count how many civilians have been saved? If so, why bring it up? It could be a few. It could be many. But since we don't know, what exactly is the deal here?
The Prez still wants Gaffy to leave, but still won't call for his ouster by making that a stated target of US policy. Bow that the US is in Libya, does Prez think any solution short of Gaffy's Bye Bye is feasible? Or does Prez want a partition of Libya?
Which then raises the point: Why are we trying to rationalize the gentleman's inane statements? We should just accept that the Prez is Clueless in Washington, and leave it.
The Prez as quoted by Haaretz of Israel: "President Barack Obama told Americans on Saturday that the military mission in Libya is clear, focused and limited, and that it has already saved "countless" civilian lives." Right. and the Editor is Queen of England. Everyone please to bow respectful-like to him.

0100 GMT March 26, 2011

Update 2100 GMT

Loyalists concede Adjabiya, rebels reach Brega 70-km west

Update 1300 GMT

Rebels claim they have taken Adjabiya and are searching for loyalist fighters inside the city

Below is a link to a fascinating from-the-scene article on the limits of the rebel forces, sent by reader Luxembourg

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/03/24/111020/on-the-ground-in-libya-rebels.html#ixzz1Hew8MZyQ

Libya British air strikes targeted loyalist forces outside Adjabiya. Unlike most observers, we not so pessimistic about Col. Gaddaffi being defeated. At some point very soon he loses the ability to resupply his forces. Acute observers of events may have noted allied air strikes in the south of Libya, far the front. These strikes are intended to destroy the loyalist material base.
The British destroyed four tanks using their new Brimstone, a US Maverick analog; the missile is smaller than Maverick, 12-km range fire-and-forget, and a 3rd party such as a surveillance aircraft can take over the missile including giving its firing data. The Telegraph article http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8158433/RAF-launches-attacks-on-Gaddafi-armour.html makes clear to what extend the coalition is going to avoid civilian casualties. After British Tornados knocked out two tanks, they were about to attack a third when civilians were identified near the tank. The run was aborted. The Tornadoes then came back to knock off the tank after civilians were clear. Another sorties by another nation destroyed three more tanks in the same area.
While loyalists have to feel the loss of seven tanks in one go, just because his tanks and artillery cannot operate doesn't mean the war is over. Its always possible to get in small arms and company-level weapons despite the No Fly Zone. For one thing, the naval embargo cannot cover dispersed arms shipments from the southern borders. But without heavy weapons, loyalist casualties will soar as they push their offensives. The effectiveness and speed of the attacks will dramatically reduce.
Rome was not built in a day. Western intervention against Serbia took time to become effective. Ditto Libya.
(By the way, we all say "Rome was not built in a day". But has anyone ever claimed it was?)
Effectiveness of today's smart bombs We'd noted that today's smart bombs are more capable by far than the ones used in 1991 or even in 2003. This is a quote from UK Telegraph: "In Tripoli the Libyan government unwittingly showed journalists evidence of the accuracy of allied air strikes – the blackened skeleton of a 30ft high radar dish burned out on a hillside surrounded by trees. The leaves on the trees, even those hanging over the dish, were not even singed."
BTW, we read that among the ground warfare robots the US is testing is one which among its armament carries a pack of four missiles that together weigh less than 2.5-kg. Talk about wanting to limit collateral damage. US has also developed sensors that can see through several feet of concrete. We'd previously mentioned a smart round fired from a 6-round grenade launcher that is fired just above a fortification and which seeks out individual combatants behind the fortification.
All these developments put together will signal a new era in the infantry battle. For one thing, to paraphrase an old Second Indochina War motto, "Strike robots are fearless". In another 30 years the battlefield could very well resemble a Star Wars movie. The powered exo-skeleton thing is already developed. A four-legged mule that carries 180-kg payload is in the works. UAVs as small as swallows. Etc etc.
Kind of makes one long for the good-old days when soldiers set out for the day with their rifle, a canteen of water, a bag of bullets and a bag of beans. For really young readers, that really was the load for a soldier fighting in India's North West Frontier Province in the 1920s and 1930s. Compare to typical US soldier in the same region today.
From Mr. Ramnagesh Iyer You believe the Western attack on Libya (or the Indian attack in East Pakistan) is motivated by humanitarian concerns for civilians under an oppressive regime. I beg to differ. I agree totally that US has been dragged into this by the British and French. But none of the three are fighting this war out of humanitarian concern (I have outlined some other possible reasons earlier)
India's war in 1971 was different in one critical aspect. It was the headache of war next door, with a looming refugee flood into East India that prompted Mrs. Gandhi to intervene. If this had been, say the Pak-Tajik border where the 'massacre' was happening, I doubt Mrs. Gandhi would have been the slightest bothered. And in my opinion she would have been right.
Editor's comment India's intervention in East Pakistan 1971 was motivated by self-interest. The humanitarian crisis issue was true to some extent, the main issue, however, was to strike a blow against Pakistan. India's disorganized subversion in East Pakistan in the latter half of the 1960s was motivated by the Second Kashmir War, which Pakistan began as an attempt to seize Indian Kashmir. Needless to say, India's subversion was minor and would not have had any chance of success in the first place had not the East Pakistanis wanted their own country.
Editor accepts that most Pakistanis may have trouble accepting his thesis that India's role in East Pakistan 1966-1970 was motivated by the Pakistan invasion of Indian Kashmir in 1965. Nonetheless, though he was not in India in the 1960s, he visited and kept in touch. More important, when he did go to India in 1970 and stayed, he had ample opportunity to discuss the subject. He is convinced that in the 1960s India was in a strict "live-and-let-live" mode regarding Pakistan and was busy with its own problems. He also accepts that from 1947 onward both countries made some effort to subvert each other because the Partition of India was not amicable and both states regarded the other as enemies. But subversion prior to 1965 was truly insignificant and half-hearted; that is why Editor starts at 1965.

US global intervention 1945 to the present

Mr. Iyer has raised a very important point about perceived differences between India reacting in 1971 to dangerous events on its border and the US reacting to Libya. We use his point to discuss the larger issue of US global intervention 1945 to the present. But first, his valid point about India needs analysis.
The thing is that as India slowly becomes a world power - very slowly, we might add - its interests and capabilities will change. For example, India has sanctioned the purchase of four large amphibious assault ships. It has - on paper, at least - defined a need for a one-division expeditionary force capable of operating anywhere in the Indian Ocean littoral. In 2020 Indian interests will be more expansive than they were in 2010, and 2010's interests were more expansive in 2000, and so on.
One of the things about the US that truly gets the 3rd World irate is its propensity for global intervention. Many 3rd worlders do not appreciate, or if they do appreciate they do not accept, that in 1945 the US came into an age of global power and was the sole bulwark against Soviet expansionism. The US-Soviet rivalry was truly global in scale and both nations had crucial global interests in every corner of the world.
But one of the things that got Americans irate about the 3rd world was the complete willingness of 3rd world people to give a clean chit to Soviet imperialism, while labeling American counter-imperialism as imperialism of the first order. In their understandable reaction against Western imperialism which preceded and followed decolonization, 3rd worlders became obsessed with ignoring the wrongs committed by the Soviets and most 3rd world despots, while focusing on US wrongs. And Editor would be the first one to admit the US committed a great many wrongs.
Of course, you have to understand US actions in the context of the Cold War. That war meant nothing to the typical educated Indian. But for the US, the Cold War was a life-and-death struggle with the Soviet Union, and the ends justified the means. So, if that meant supporting the dictators in Taiwan, or South Korea, or Central America, or Iran, or wherever, the US decided that the ends were critical, the morality of means of little interest.
We can argue with the luxury of retrospect and the demise of the Soviet Union if the US was right to ignore its own revolutionary and democratic ideals. But in such an examination, we 3rd worlders must take a back seat, because the Cold War was not our war, except insofar as we could benefit from being courted by one side or the other. Soviet ICBMs were not aimed at India, for example; and Indians cannot begin to understand how grim the 1950s and 1960s looked from the American side. The prospect of annihilation, of 100-million casualties and the poisoning of their country for hundreds of subsequent years, was not an abstraction for Americans.
The issue is, of course, complex and it would take several books to fully discuss the arguments of all sides. In an ideal world, the US would have applied its post-1945 revolutionary fervor for global democracy to help the 3rd world, and not support despotic governments. Indeed, it is one of the great ironies of the 20th Century that the mantle of anti-imperialism was snatched from the first modern anti-imperialist nation, the US, by the Soviets, who were nothing but old-fashioned imperialists. Of course, ultimately it turned out that Soviet propaganda was just words, whereas American "propaganda" in the form of jeans and Coke took over the world.
In the 2000s, the US muddied its copy book by Gulf II and the endless war in Afghanistan. We don't have to explain why Gulf II so angered the 3rd World. Afghanistan may need a bit more explaining. It is not as if anyone in the 3rd World had or has any sympathy for the barbaric Taliban. If the US had entered Afghanistan with clean hands in an attempt to bring democracy, much of the 3rd World would have supported the US intervention. But to this day a great many 3rd Worlders do not accept that that just because Afghanistan gave shelter to Osama Bin Ladin, the US had to invade and occupy the country. After all, Osama and his good buddies thrived and continue to thrive because of Saudi money. No one sees the US invading Saudi Arabia.
What's bothering a lot of 3rd Worlders who otherwise are today in complete sympathy with pro-democracy movements everywhere is what they see as the US's selective intervention. Thus, as Mr. Iyer has noted, the US is not concerned with the Yemen president turning his guns on his people. Indeed, if you listen to American commentators, their chief concern is not democracy in Yemen, but the potential loss of an anti-Al Qaeda ally. This is, unfortunately, a throwback to the days of the Cold War where all that was required for US support was to say you were anti-communist. The illegal president of the Ivory Coast is oppressing the people. US has nothing to say. Mugabe of Zimbabwe is oppressing his people. US has nothing to say. And so on.
Editor has argued the US cannot intervene everywhere, particularly as it is deep economic trouble. But if Americans are fair, they should look at the situation from the viewpoint of the 3rd World. To ex-colonies, the word "oil" is a trigger that blinds people to rational debate. They are wrong at least with respect to the US and Libya, but while we can afford to make those fine distinctions, Americans should not expect people with an unhappy experience of western imperialism to remain rational.
The interesting thing about Libya is not that the Americans are bombing Libya It is that even China and Russia, who have no hesitation in vetoing western initiatives at the UN, were forced to abstain. Editor was privately convinced that both countries would veto UN intervention. Equally interesting is that Arab countries are prepared to support armed intervention. Egypt is giving non-combat support, little Qatar has actually sent combat aircraft, and the UAE has now withdrawn its refusal to send aircraft. Countries that have no direct interest in Libya have sent combat forces - Canada, Norway, Spain, Denmark, and Turkey are some of these countries.
Even more important is that the Arab Spring actually hurts immediate immediate US interests! Yet the US has calmly accepted the prospect of decades of turmoil in the Arab world which could well result in another resurgence of Muslim fundamentalism. Even more astonishing is that every country that revolts for democracy means Israel's security is undercut, and as we know, the security of Israel is America's primary interest in the Arab world.
What we are seeing is - at long last - a US return to its revolutionary roots regardless of the revolution in question is to immediate US advantage. The US has decided to take the words of its Constitution - the right to life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness, as applicable to all people even at the cost of short-term disadvantage. This is because the US rightly believes that in the longer run, Arab democracy is crucial in the fight against Islamic fundamentalism. And in case, once you intervene to install democracy in Iraq, how can you justify non-intervention elsewhere in the Arab world?
The US return is not perfect by any means. But it is a start.
Meanwhile, there is one person who is quietly laughing at events in Egypt, Tunisia, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain, and Libya. That man is the man so thoroughly reviled in the 3rd World: George W. Bush. He is a man who believed in doing what he thought right and slept soundly because he knew his God and history would vindicate him.
But if 3rd Worlders seethe at the thought that Mr. Bush could turn out to be right even though his methods were initially wrong, they should give a moment of sympathy for a class of people who hate Mr. Bush ten, or a hundred times more than 3rd Worlders. And that class is at least half of the US people.

0100 GMT March 25, 2011

Libya Readers may have noticed we are not really commenting on the political and strategic aspects of the Libya operation. That's because there's nothing to comment about. The non-military part is a complete and utter mess. The objective is not defined, the means to get to the objective are not defined, and the endgame is not defined.
All that can be definitively said for our US readers is that the US is determined to whiz out of Dodge as fast as possible, and that the US will not send in ground troops.
In case anyone is wondering what the US is doing in this dust-up, its clear by now the US did not, under any circumstances, want to get involved in Libya. Freezing accounts, imposing travel bans, support the ICC is a crimes against humanity trial, getting UN resolutions, and the like, the US was willing to do. But actually do any fighting, it was not.
So why is the US fighting? So far, according to our information from secret sources which we cannot reveal (its actually the Editor's Teddy Bears talking to the White House Teddy Bears, but we can't reveal that), the reason is that UK and France told the US: "We've done gone supported you in your exceptionally stupid interventions in Gulf II and Afghanistan, now you just darn well have to support us." Also, "If you don't support us, we'll have to rethink our place in NATO." Now, no one wants to be the US Prez that breaks NATO, and no one wants to anger the Brits and French because who knows when next time the US may need them.
Parenthetically we may note that the above explanation will drive every American conservative who declaims against the US subordinating itself to internationalism completely bats with rage. Because truly, there is no US interest in Libya great enough to justify going to war. But what these folks have to decide is what happens next time US needs their help, if we don't help them now.
Meanwhile, on the ground the rebels say they have sent 17,000 fighters to Adjabiya from Benghazi. In Misurata two loyalist tanks seem to have gotten through the city, but largely artillery and tank fire has died down. We don't know what is the alliance's next step to help the rebels. Left to us, we'd be inclined to get special forces into the city, tie that up with reconnaissance including armed UAVs, and go after the loyalists vehicles one by one. We think alliance would also need to get helicoptered supplies into the city particularly medical, food, water, and ammunition. The complications are too obvious to need elaboration.
Libya loyalists show media 18 dead bodies of civilians they say were killed in an air strike. Problem number one: the dead are all men. Problem number two: loyalists themselves said some of the men are military. Problem number three (as noted by http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/24/latest-updates-on-libyan-war-and-mideast-protests/?hp ) the morgue workers were wearing masks against the "stench" suggesting the bodies had been there for some time. Some Libyans told the media the bodies were of protesters killed a while ago.
Personally, we would not be surprised if genuine civilians are killed. There is always collateral damage. The question is, is it worth it? As an example, 10,000 French civilians were killed during the air campaign prior to the Normandy landings in 1944. We have read that the locals in areas most heavily hit are still quietly bitter. Operative word: quietly. No one says France should not have been liberated for fear of civilian casualties.
Syria In the city of Daraa, which has been the focus of recent protests, troops have been withdrawn from a mosque used by the opposition to rally protesters and some political prisoners have been released. Personally, we'd trust the Syrian Government less than we'd trust a school of hungry piranha, we caution against thinking this is a sign the Syrian Government is caving in.

0100 GMT March 24, 2011

US attacks Libya loyalist forces outside Misurata So editor has been complaining about US wimpiness in Libya, which complaint led to a sharp letter from reader Ramganesh Iyer (below). So Editor now in all fairness has to say to the US: "On Misurata, well done, but it's only a start."
Working with rebels (this is not in the media) and using its high-tech reconnaissance, US destroyed several Libyan tanks, BMPs, trucks, and artillery on the outskirts of Misurata, making every effort to avoid civilians. Though the attacks left the bulk of loyalist forces inside the city intact, for the first time since the loyalists arrived at the city, their guns were silent Wednesday for a time. Whether the one day's attack will suffice to force the issue remains to be seen. But the people of the city were living on rainwater, and were just about out of every form of supplies. Editor and lots of others expected it was goodbye Misurata.
This shows that accuracy of US weapons has improved significantly in the last ten years.
Nonetheless, while allied forces stopped a column on one side of the city, loyalist forces resumed the attack from another direction. They are shelling the hospital, and snipers have been shooting at the entrances, stopping anyone from going in or out. The wounded have now overwhelmed doctors' ability to treat them.
Further good news - which may not last - is that despite their inexperience and the beating the rebels took at Adjibaya and enroute to Benghazi, and then again when they tried to storm Adjibaya after the French and US attacked Libyan loyalist forces, the rebels have managed to enter the city from two directions. Our impression is it is a shallow penetration, but still.
Letter to Professor Hugo Chavez Respected sir, capitalism did not end life on Mars. Life is doing well on Mars. Society there is strictly socialist (real socialism, not your fake kind). It's all share-and-share alike. On typical evenings Martians sit around the campfire and sing Kumbaya and other protest songs of Joan Baez and Bob Dylan. There is no ownership of property. There are no businesses. No one need work since Mars is the land of milk and honey. The climate is so mild Martians need neither houses nor clothes. Nor do they need electronics, TVs, or computers to amuse themselves. For amusement Martians play hopscotch, pick-up-sticks, rounders, and Go Fish. We have no government, no crime, no enemies, no armies, no taxes - since no one earns a cent, you cant have taxes. No schools, no Pizza Huts, and most important, no Starbucks. Martians are indeed a happy people.
How does the Editor know this? Because he is from Mars. He was sent to Earth for a reconnaissance. The reason he was sent was a Rumor of Mars Bars. Martians are crazy about Mars Bars, and this is the one thing we do not have enough of. The information we had was that Mars Bars are to be found in America. This information turned out to be wrong and resulted in a wasted 40-years search all over America.
It is only this past Christmas that Mrs. Rikhye IV, the latest ex-wife, returned from England with 18 Mars Bars. Turns out that an American came up with the candy, but he started his business in England. In America he called Mars Bars "Milky Ways", though of course they are quite different things.
So Editor was about to signal Mars to say the source of Mars Bars had been identified, when he thought he should sample the consignment to make sure it was the real thing. Problem is that the sampling required eating all 18 bars. After all, just because 1 or two or three or even 17 turn out to be Mars Bars, you cannot be absolutely sure the 18th isn't a Milky Way in false colors. So he hasn't yet signaled the mothership.
More later. Editor has to get back to defending American imperialism (see below).

Letter from Mr. Ramnagesh Iyer

You have said: "Is it better that Gaddaffi kills a few thousand civilians followed by a massacre of his opponents when he takes a town, or is it better to stop him at the risk of hundreds of civilian casualties inflicted by the good guys.
Terribly biased statement - surprisingly coming from you.
First, if Gaddafi hasnt proved that the Western air forces have caused civilian casualties, nor has anyone proved that Gaddafi caused them in the first place. Even less has anyone proved that Gaddafi is intentionally harming his own civilians. Why are his forces not allowed to cause collateral damage though Western forces are?

Second, you casually talk of a 'few thousand' casualties caused by Gaddafi and 'hundreds' caused by the Western coalition. Anything to say any one side is more bothered about civilians than the other?
Third, the UN had (wrongly in my view) supported the no-fly zone. Even here, there were so many abstentions that the resolution itself seems a farce. Not only China and Russia, but countries as diverse as Brazil, Turkey and India have expressed concern over Western war-mongering at work again. In any case, the usual suspects - US, Britain and France have taken the war far beyond UN mandate, by even bombing Gaddafi's personal compound. By what yardstick does this constitute enforcing a no-fly zone?
Fourth - '...by the good guys'. As usual, nothing in the developments so far justify such moral judgments. After all, the same Europeans welcomed Gaddafi there not long ago. West is here because a) war mongering is an old Anglo-American habit b) Oil is somewhere in their mind (note their lack of interest in Yemen) c) The likes of France and Britain want to fight their own irrelevance in the world stage d) Sarkozy wants to divert attention from his falling popularity to the left (Strauss-Kahn) and right (Marine le Pen). This has nothing to do with good or bad guys.
Sitting in the US, its probably easy to get carried away by American rhetoric. But the reality is far more grey and more complicated than most Americans have the capacity to, or bother to comprehend.
Editor's response Mr. Iyer can be assured I spoke for myself when I said that several hundred civilian casualties are preferable to letting Gaddaffi kill several thousand people. The west is so terrified of civilian casualties that for the last several days it has been unable to help the rebels at Misurata, Zintan, and other places.
Re. sources on Colonel Gaddaffi's killing civilians. His own people say he is doing it. Right, his own people are also saying the US-led bombing is causing civilian casualties. But whereas the rebels have shown journalists Gaddaffi caused casualties, loyalists have not done the same.
Oil. When US invaded Iraq 2003, worldwide people said it was about oil - and worldwide means a lot of Americans also said it was about oil. But who has the oil contracts in Iraq? China and India, not the US. So if it was about oil, we have to say US went to war so that China and India can have oil.
Why does the west have to kick Gaddaffi out to get his oil? For that the west needs only to maintain the status quo.
The US has been extremely reluctant to get involved: too much thinking in shades of gray. As for Yemen, Mr. Iyer should be a bit more patient. Even the US can handle only just so many crises at one time.
Being influenced by US because one is sitting in the US. Hmmmmm. Actually, I was far more pro-US when I was sitting in India for 20 years. Among other positions I've taken that are hardly the result of US propaganda is that the US should make up with the Taliban.
Point being, sometimes the Americans are wrong. Sometime they are right. Sometimes the Indians are right. And sometimes they are wrong. The great thing about both countries is that Mr. Iyer and myself get to say exactly what we want, and we don't have to worry about being carted off to jail, or tortured, or shot for it.
I'd like Mr. Iyer to be generous and give that same right to the Libyan people. And if the Libyan people need help, what of it? In 1971, India helped free East Pakistan after Pakistan defeated the revolt. It was wholly to India's strategic advantage to do so. That does not negate in any way that it was the right thing for India to do.

0030 GMT March 23, 2011

Hugo says capitalism may have ended life on Mars

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Chavez-says-capitalism-may-rb-3915449179.html?x=0&.v=1

Orbat.com demands Main Stream media stop acting like idiots

Perhaps this is an impossible demand, akin to saying "I demand I should be able to travel faster than the speed of light", or "I demand Lindsey Lohan and Charlie Sheen sober up". Nonetheless, we are demanding MSM stop acting like idiots. Two cases that particularly provoked us yesterday.
One MSM source called the loss of a US F-15 over Libya a "setback" for the allied air campaign over Libya. We want whoever wrote this not to be whipped with the traditional orbat.com limp noodle, but to be tied to a fighter jet's bomb ejector rack and dropped head first over Libya. Then, because this person has mush in their head instead of brains, when this correspondent spooooinggggs back into the atmosphere, they can provide a target for a US BMD test.
Since when is the loss of an aircraft in a military operation a setback? A setback comes when you don't achieve your goals. Where does it say the US goal is to suffer zero equipment losses and zero casualties?
A second MSM sources talked about support for the idea of a Libya NFZ, but then went on to say that this idea is not "universally" supported. How astute. How insightful. How enlightening. We at Orbat.com feel we are better human beings simply because this person said an idea does not have universal support.
Question to whoever is guilty of this particular atrocity: can you tell us one idea that is universally accepted, just one? Since the universe is infinite, please check every corner of the universe before replying.
This person's punishment? Tie them to the next deep-space probe and launch 'em. When the aliens discover the probe a la Sigourney Weaver and the Alien, they will do a dissection of the person's brain. They will then conclude there is no intelligent life in the Sol Sector and will leave us alone.
And no use for MSM to come back and say "But Orbat.com says stupid things." You can debate the points Orbat.com makes, but we do not say stupid things on par with the MSM. Further, Orbat.com is an amateur blog run for people's general edification and amusement. No one here is getting paid a penny, and no one here pretends they are the font of every wisdom as does the MSM. No comparison, sorry.

Yemen The president is both flailing and failing after three senior military leaders including a top general defected to the protestors after the killing of at least 52 civilians and the wounding of several hundred more by loyalist snipers. He now says he will resign at the end of the year. Skirmishes between loyalist and mutinying military reports are reported.
Well, strange thing he has been in power 32 years, made many promises, and not kept them. He's one person for whom the adage "Liar, liar, pants on fire" was coined. (You can tell from our adages how terribly mature we are.). So unsurprisingly, the protestors aren't buying the promise. So maybe he will be gone soon.
Syria We would not bet on a Syria revolt succeeding any more than we'd bet on a Saudi revolt succeeding. The thing with Egypt and Tunisia was that the army, final arbiter of power, turned against the regime. In Libya the army either defected or was sidelined to begin with. As Richard M. Bennett of AFI points out, the Libyan Army has always been kept weak and ineffective for coup fears. Conversely, however, Gaddaffi has not been able to use the army to suppress the people, only his personal troops. in Yemen not only is the President's own tribe upset with him, but the Army looks like it has split.
These conditions do not apply to Saudi Arabia and Syria.
UAE not sending jets to Libya campaign because it has been under criticism from the west for sending its forces to keep the Bahrain mini-despot in power. Truly, we never understood why UAE offered in the first place, because it 'aint exactly a democracy either. So what on earth were they thinking, helping suppress democracy in Bahrain and supporting it in Libya?
The answer to our question may lie in the history of Gaffy Waffy. In his day he has interfered with everyone within reach. Maybe there is some old enmity here and UAE was sending aircraft not to support democracy, but to punch Gaffy in the kisser. We're guessing/reasoning - we don't know the history of the region so well that we can be definitive.
Tripoli attacked fourth night in a row The targets are not yet known.
Meanwhile Libya is not doing a particularly good job of its propaganda that civilians are being killed. When the Gaddaffi compound was hit, an official spokesperson himself said there were no casualties. Every time media asks to be shown the casualties in other attacks, the government refuses. Then the government tried to paint an attack on a naval HQ in the Triploi area as an attack on a fishermen's wharf, but when it took the correspondents over they saw a bunch of missile launchers parked there, and of course the area is known to be a naval base. Again when media asked to see casualties, there was no response. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12826744
But again, we advise people not to get too highly enthused about the lack of civilian casualties so far. There are civilians all over the place in Tripoli and other cities; Gaddaffi's forces include large numbers of armed civilians, and even today, bombs malfunction as far as aiming is concerned. And aiming mistakes are also made - eg, PRC embassy in Belgrade. We wish the US would simply saw: "Look, we're doing our best to avoid civilian casualties, but combat is combat, and innocents do get hurt." Unpleasant for Americans to face, since they now believe war has become a giant video game, but neccessary for them to face.
You have to keep things in balance. Is it better that Gaddaffi kills a few thousand civilians followed by a massacre of his opponents when he takes a town, or is it better to stop him at the risk of hundreds of civilian casualties inflicted by the good guys.
This fear of civilian casualties is what's stopping the allies from whacking Gaddaffi forces at Minurata and other towns where his people are inside the town. In the Benghazi case the allies targeted loyalist forces outside the city and enroute to the city, a much simpler affair.

0030 GMT March 22, 2011

Libya US cruise missiles, of which by now more than 150 have been fired, hit the Khamis Brigade's HQ in Tripoli. Rebels jumped all the way to Ajdabiya, but were stopped by the loyalists. It appears the rebels do not have the capacity for organized operations.
Meanwhile, Richard M. Bennett of AFI, an orbat and analysis service, writes to tell us that the Khamis and 32nd Brigades are one and the same. Readers will recall our bafflement the other day because we had been told the Khamis brigade was the only effective unit in the Libya Army, and then newspapers reported the 32nd Brigade was the unit involved in the drive to Benghazi. Since Khamis Brigade, named after one of the good Colonel's seven sons, was fighting to the west of Tripoli, we assumed 32nd was another brigade, which it is not.
The situation at Minsurata continues to be bad but some rebels are still holding out. The loyalist forces are mixing with civilians in an effort to deter the allies from attacking; remains to be seen if their plans pan out.
Meanwhile, bring out the clowns Readers might have noticed, and might possibly even be amused, at the Tower of Babel type voices that have erupted as to what are the objectives in Libya.
Heading the lot is our fave playboy, Berlo. He announced Italian planes have not fired on anyone. His pilots say they were given targets, they attacked the targets, and destroyed them. Then comes the British PM, who is engaged in a war of words with his Ministry of Defense.
Then comes the US President, who says Colonel Gaddaffi must go, but deposing him is not a US aim. Then we have the US C-in-C Africa Command, who says he has been given no orders to target Gaddaffi, but if the Big G.happens to be visiting an anti-aircraft battery and the battery is hit, then no one will shed tears. The US State Department says yes, it's possible that Gaf will remain in power and continue to rule. The Arab League says that reports it has broken from the allies on Libya are incorrect, everyone is unified. In the US some Congresspeople are asking the President to explain what the heck is going on and what are US objectives, while others are saying they are satisfied with the way things are going. Then the President says that in a couple of days US will not be heading up the operation any longer. Actually, the President is being modest: if heading an operation means having an objective and convincing/bullying others to support that object, US is currently not heading up anything because it is providing no political leadership of any sort.
Then you also have people - and this is a point on which we must defer to our better informed readers - who say the US President has authority to declare war without Congressional approval only if the US is directly threatened, which is not the case with Gaffy Waffy. We assume supporters of the executive will say the President is only responding to Security Council Resolution 1763 and has not declared war on anyone, it is only protecting civilians.
We can't speak for the Heavenly Mandarins of the Middle Kingdom, but we will not be surprised that they are sitting there, worried as heck, and saying is the decadent west really that stupid or is this some sort of sophisticated plot to take over Libya.
Speaking of China BBC reports that China has decided to bet on thorium powered, molten salt moderated reactors. These reactors produce one-thousandth the waste of uranium reactors, and are passively safe: if the temperature rises beyond a point, a plug in the coolant line melts, and the molten salt drains into a container, and the reaction stops. No computers are needed, no pumps, no power supply. We're going to have to go back and refresh ourselves on thorium reactors and will give our opinion in a few days. Also, thorium reactors operate at atmospheric pressure. If there is a failure, there's no pressure to build up and blow holes in the building. Further, thorium is as plentiful as lead. No shortage of supplies. We seem to recall India at one time was big on thorium reactor research as the country has large thorium reserves.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8393984/Safe-nuclear-does-exist-and-China-is-leading-the-way-with-thorium.html
How can the US be broke says an irate reader from India. US Federal Government spends 22% of its GDP, whereas as most industrialized countries spend 40% and up, or twice as much. Sure these countries have their economic problems, just as does the US, but they have medical care for everyone, their schools seem to work, their infrastructure is not falling apart, their crime rates are far lower than the US, and so on. It seems, says the irate reader, that US doesn't want to spend the money needed to be a developed 21st Century nation, not that it's broke.
Well, what can we say. Of course objectively the US is not broke. But the point is, Americans no longer want to pay taxes. The other day the good people of Miami-Dade voted to recall their mayor because he said he had to raise property taxes to pay for government services. The recall was organized by a billionaire who spent $1-million of his money in the effort. Day before, a town in California laid off half of its firefighters, police, mechanics, trash collectors because they said there was no money to pay for services. Meaning, they couldn't raise taxes.
So basically it comes to this: Americans are going to have to decide how much government they are willing to pay for. Right now they are not in the mood to pay even what they are paying, let alone an increase. And its not just that they don't want a tax increase. They want taxes reduced.
That is why Editor says America is broke. Because if they don't want to pay higher taxes, they need to cut $1.6-trillion from their $3.6-trillion budget. Now, very approximately, of the remaining $2-trillion half goes to social security and Medicare and unemployment etc, which is financed from separate taxes. If these services are to be cut, then so do the separate taxes. You actually have only $2.6-trillion of spending which you can cut. So if you cut $1.6-trillion, you are going to have cut federal spending by sixty percent.
Are Americans willing to do without sixty percent of the services the US Government provides? Well, we don't know if they are. But those who want no increase in taxes are not thinking ahead.
Irrational? Yep. But that's America these days. Back in the day Editor had a bumper sticker "America: Love it or Leave it." Same applies today.
India Abroad, the largest South Asian community newspaper in the US, says according to a survey, an incredible 74% of Indian students in the US say they want to return to India after their studies. An additional 16% say they'll take the best job offered, if its not in the US, they'll leave. Only 8% say they are willing to stay in the US even if it means taking a lower-paying job. So they've already started leaving, and that's fine, Editor respects everyone's choice.
For himself, his traveling days are done. He's going to stick on.
India Abroad, March 18, 2011, page A6, print edition. "Majority of Indian students in US want to return, says new study."

0030 GMT March 21, 2011

Libya We can return to our normal reporting because there is not much happening in Libya. There is zero air opposition, surveillance radars and SAM sites are either destroyed or have shut down. Another cruise missile attack place on Sunday/Monday, believed to be aimed at AAA sites protecting Gaddaffi's residential compound and the adjacent army base.
Despite the second ceasefire announced by Libya with effect from 2100 Sunday local time - even though his forces never ceased fire after the first one announced on Friday - the offensive against Misurata continues, and pro-Government gunmen have been shooting from cars in Benghazi. We are unsure what this tactic gains the Libyan Government aside from the certainty that as and when its gunmen are caught they will either be battered to death or executed by the rebels.
Japan we've been staying out of this debate because in Editor's experience people are simply not rational about N-power. It's no sense saying if you applied the same standard of expectation to - say aircraft, trains, and cars as people wanted to apply to N-reactors, i.e., a 100% certainty nothing can go wrong, we would be back to riding bikes and horses. Which can also be quite safe.
First, we do need to note that a number of MSM articles in the last three days have finally taken a balanced and not a sales-oriented alarmist view. This thing got so out of hand with people in the US at least rushing to buy iodine to save themselves from the radioactivity that otherwise would kill them that we felt we'd be wasting out time talking about the issue.
The reality is there are 10 reactors at Fukushima, the largest single reactor complex in the world. Despite being hit by a mag 9 earthquake and an 8-meter tsunami, and a complete loss of power, the containment at no reactor was breached. The four reactors at Daini shut down or were in any case down for maintenance. The six reactors at Daichi were the problem. The current situation is: 5 and 6 have now been shut down. Radiation from 4 is going down, indicating cooling pond temperatures are reducing; the Hyper Rescue Unit is slated to give 4 a giant bath to fill cooling ponds to bring down the radiation further. There was some degree of worry about 3, because temperatures were building and there were plans to allow a gas vent which would have put some radioactivity in the air, but again, nothing to be concerned about if you are under cover within 20-km. Nonetheless, 3 decided to behave after water was pumped into it for 13 straight hours. Reactors 1 and 2 are not giving problems, what is more, power has been restored. The next step is to take accurate temperature readings inside and get the water pumps back in operation. Reactors 3 and 4 power will take a few days to restore, so more water may be needed. (We read somewhere that the Hyper Rescue Unit can pump 3-tons of water a minute, which is 3000-liters or three cubic meters, or very roughly about 800-gallons/minute.
Yes the milk and spinach is contaminated: but the levels are no where near enough to hurt anyone, and in any case, given the scale of the tragedy Japan is faced with, not being able to eat spinach and milk from the Fukushima area rates relatively low in the scale of problems.
All in all, the Japanese did an absolutely superb job of getting Fukushima under control. This was not a chance: they had already done everything possible to forestall against such a disaster and they reacted with extreme efficiency when things threatened to get out of control.
So: does this mean we are advocating that a US utility build a Big One in the Editor's backyard? Isn't the unexpected failure of power at Fukushima - which led to all the problems - exact proof of what the antis are saying, that we can never be sure, or to quote the famous nose art on a British World War II bomber, "Its always bloody something"?
Obviously there are lessons to be learned from Fukushima, and everyone right now is busy studying the disaster to see what improvements need to be made to their reactors.
There is some reason for joy among the anti-nuke people. As it was US reactors economics have gone south with the fall in natural gas prices, which given the amount of gas the US now has - with very big other discoveries waiting to be made, its pretty much a given that no one is in a rush to build reactors. Further, the public will demand extra safety measures after Fukushima, so that should worsen the economics.
So: if an N-utility wants to build a 50-KW reactor of the passive, buried types in Editor's backyard, it is welcome. Providing they pay - this is America, after all. Why 50-KW when Editor's absolute max peak summer consumption is less than 5-KW (averaging to 30-KWH/day)? Because the demographics of his street have changed. When he came, there was 1 kid on the street of eight houses, Editor's youngest. Now there's thirteen kids because the oldies have all died out and young families with children have bought the houses because of the schools: you can go from K to 12 in great schools in this area. So Editor will naturally have to share power when there's a blackout, with the street.
As one gets older, one gets grumpy and takes setbacks badly, because there are so few options and so little time left to make things okay. One worries constantly about money and looking after oneself, because every month there's something that was so easy to do just the other day but is now hard. Editor is highly grumpy a lot of the time. But then he just has to look out of his window, and there's kids all over the street (its a dead end), and you know something odd? Its comforting, real comforting to see them. These kids (ages 2 to 15) are the future of America, and I hope their parents look after them really well, and leave them an America the kids will be proud to inherit.

0030 GMT March 20, 2011

1900 GMT France flew 15 sorties over Libya Sunday but fired no shots as there was no resistance. Colonel Gaddaffi says he has declared a ceasefire as 2100 local time; the problem is he had already declared a ceasefire on Friday before the strikes began. Further problem is that Misurata is still under attack.
1830 GMT Rebel forces advance 65-km southwest of Benghazi. US aircraft participating include 3 B-62s, plus a strike package of eight F-16 and 4 F-15, and estimated 4 AV-8. The F-16/F-15 were used to attack ground targets, not the air defense network, region of strike is not given. US wont confirm if F-22s are in the region. Arab League expresses concern over civilian casualties; US Admiral Mullen says so far he has not seen any report of civilian losses. Its unclear where these civilians have been killed since allies have targeted only the air defense network and reinforcements for Benghazi so far. Also, large number of loyalists are armed civilians. Arab League says it voted for NFZ,not for action against ground forces. West says the UN resolution clearly states civilians are to be protected by all neccessary means.
1620 GMT Aircraft not identified by country hit a column of loyalist vehicles headed for Benghazi, destroying seventy of them. Belgium has sent aircraft to join the NFZ.
1430 GMT Nineteen US aircraft, including B-52s and possibly F-22s, attacked targets in Libya Sunday. Rebels have advanced southwest from Benghazi to retake lost ground after and allied air strike, likely French, destroyed 14 tanks, 20 troop carriers, and two multiple barrel rocket launchers. The third US attack submarine in the Mediterranean is USS Scranton. SSGN Florida, a former SLBM submarine converted to fire Tomahawk missiles, also participated in the cruise missile attacks. 114 missiles were fired in the original barrage, but it is unclear if this includes missiles fired by the Royal Navy. Loyalist forces resume their attack on Minustra. In Tripoli any loyalist willing to bear arms has been issued a gun; machine guns have also been distributed. Reported that snipers in Tripoli are stationed on rooftops in opposition districts, and have been forcing residents to stay indoors.
0315 GMT US reports Libyan air defenses severely degraded. Reported that 3 British Tornados from RAF Marham flew 10,000-km roundtrip to launch Stormshadow missiles (1300-kg, 250-km) missiles against Libyan targets. French air contingent identified as 8 Rafale, 4 Mirage 2000, six C-135 air tankers, and an E-3. Spain sends 4 F-18s and a refueler to Sardinia; also a frigate and a submarine. French officials say UAE will send 24 Mirage 2000 and F-16; Qatar sending 4-6 Mirage 2000. Loyalist attack on Zintin in West Libya reported Saturday
0130 GMT The US part of the operation is called "Odyssey Dawn". Reports of heavy anti-aircraft fire and explosions after 3:30AM Tripoli time today suggest more missiles or air strikes may have been launched. The first strike of 110 missiles arrived at around 11:30PM Saturday night.
0030 GMT Fighters from Denmark have also arrived in Italy to participate in Operation Ellamy - we're not sure if that is the overall name or just the UK name. Royal Navy frigates Cumberland and Westminster are off Libya. An unidentified Trafalgar-class SSN joined US forces in the cruise missile strike against Libyan air defenses in the western part of the country.

0030 GMT March 19, 2011

Yemen 52 demonstrators were killed in one day by snipers posted on rooftops along the route used by the demonstrators. Almost without exception, the victims were shot in the front or back of their heads or chests. several hundred more were wounded. Eyewitness reports say that even as victims fell the demonstrators advanced, many taking off their shirts to taunt the snipers.
Yesterday Yemen declared a state of emergency. The President helpfully suggested that demonstrators had shot their own people and expressed his sorrow. The thinking is he has been emboldened by the crackdown and the west's preoccupation with Libya.
British analysts are warning that if the President is not removed from power, Yemen will disintegrate into tribal warfare.
The president is a key US ally in the war against Al Qaeda.
More ammo for the right: President Obama is Gaddaffi's son Sez who? Says Gaddaffi. In a letter to the US President the Colonel says Obama will remain his son no matter what happens. This indicates to us that President Obama is not Gaddaffi's adopted son, but his real son. After all, you can disown an adopted son, you cant disown your flesh-and-blood.
So now in addition to being Kenyan and Indonesian, the US President in Arab Libyan. We find it odd no one seems to note he is 50% Irish - except the Irish, who one his election announced the second Irish-American to win the office.
Concerning President Obama's multiple heritages, the first Irish-American president once said: "Victory has a hundred fathers, defeat is an orphan". So the second Irish-American president can take comfort that he is the son of so many different fathers.
Meanwhile, that kindly father Col. Gaddaffi has moved several hundred women and children to his compound in Tripoli as human shield protection. Problem is, things have changed a bit since 1986. You no longer have to attack his entire personal installation to kill him. Assuming he is in the compound, you need a UAV to deliver a couple of missiles through his bathroom window. Now, a Hellfire missile is designed to blowup a 60-ton main battle tank. If you use it against a building, despite the pinpoint accuracy, the explosions will kill or injure people around. Of course, that's a lot better than having a couple of 2000-pounders go off on your house, but still, collateral damage cannot be avoided. Very soon down the road you will get very little collateral damage as missiles with much smaller warheads than Hellfire come into service.
Nonetheless, collateral damage is not a reason to avoid jumping Gaddaffi if US can get a clear shot. There is collateral damage when UAV launches drone strikes against Taliban and AQ, because these gentlemen live with their families. But however annoying AQ and Taliban may be, at least they don't deliberately pack women and children around them to inhibit UAV strikes. The man has got to go. If it means a few dozen collaterals, that's simply too bad. Lesser of evils and that sort of thing.

Letter from Sparsh Amin on Indian helicopter programs

You had mentioned the Dhruv helicopter on orbat.com a couple of days ago. I wanted to mention a few things in response:
(1) Sonam post, the post mentioned by Col. Shukla, is not actually the highest post on the Saltoro ridge. To the best of my knowledge that dubious honor belongs to Bana Post that is a few thousand feet higher than Sonam. Sonam does however have the highest helipad on the Saltoro ridge. That is why the extreme high altitude trials were conducted there.
(2) The anti-amour version you had mentioned is not exactly that. It does have a very potent anti-armour capability but that is not what its primary role will be. Let me explain:
You were talking about the so called Weapon Systems Integrated Dhruv (WSI Dhruv). It is a Dhruv Mk 3 helicopter plus an add-on weapons package consisting of a stabilized thermal imaging sensor and a 20 mm cannon that are both slaved to a helmet mounted sight along with four weapons pylons on the sides for rocket pods, anti-tank missiles and air-to-air missiles. All this is tied together using ballistics and fire control computers. There is also a fairly comprehensive suite of defensive sensors and an associated defensive warning system interfaced to automatic counter measure dispensers. Finally, there is also an add-on armour package to provide protection against ground fire.
The most important aspect of the WSI Dhruv is that it retains the ability to carry 10 or so fully equipped soldiers. This combination of transport and fire power in the same helicopter is incredibly useful to the Paras and the SF. Right now they rely on Lancers to provide armed escort and fire support to unarmed Dhruvs. The Lancer is an armored Cheetah helicopter having two fixed 12.7 mm machine guns, six rockets, and a manual aiming sight. You can see how the WSI Dhruv will be a vast improvement over the current set up.
As you had mentioned, there are 54 WSI Dhruvs on order. These are meant for both the Army and the Air Force. The majority of these are meant for the Army and the remaining for the Air Force. I expect the ones that will go the Air Force to be used by the Garuds for combat search and rescue and the ones that will go to the Army for helicopter borne assault and insertions by the Paras and the SF.
(3) There is a dedicated and purpose built attack helicopter under development whose primary role will include anti-armour work. This is the so called Light Combat Helicopter (LCH). The LCH uses the same weapons and sensor systems described above as the WSI Dhruv and a lot of the same sub-systems as the regular Dhruv Mk 3. There are no orders placed yet for the LCH since it is still in the prototype stage but the indications are that eventually around 150 or so and perhaps up to 200 will be ordered.
(4) There is also a helicopter launched version of the Nag missile under development to equip the WSI Dhruv and the LCH. This is the so called Helina missile. Up to 8 Helinas can be carried by the WSI Dhruv and the LCH.

0230 GMT March 19, 2011

Update 2200 GMT US and Royal Navy ships fired 110 cruise missiles at 20 air defense targets around Tripoli and the besieged city of Misrata which is to the east of Tripoli. The targets include long-range SAM sites, radar sites, and command-and-control centers. At least three Tripoli bases in the eastern part of the city were struck. Libyan forces have withdrawn 50-kilometers southwest of Benghazi. There may have also been air strike against Tripoli. Joining US forces in the missile attack was a British submarine which fired at air defense targets; we can assume most of the cruise missiles were intended to neutralize air defenses. We have been very cautious about rebel reports over the last two weeks saying that loyalist forces have been executing hundreds of people. That captured rebel soldiers are being executed does not seem to be much in doubt, but we'd like to wait till better information is available on deliberate killing of civilians.
Update 2045 GMT US has three attack submarines off Libya including Newport News (SSN 750) and Providence (SSN-719). Both boats have a 12-tube Tomahawk launcher and can carry up to another 25 torpedoes, mines, Harpoons, or Tomahawks. Benghazi has been declared an exclusion zone. The first French aircraft to fly over Libya took off before the Paris meeting. France has two frigates off the Libyan coast; the carrier Charles de Gaulle will sail Sunday from Toulon. The distance to the Libyan coast is approximately 800 nautical miles, which the ship can cover in 30-hours. Though of course the carrier can launch strikes from 300 nautical miles out. The air complement includes ~20 Rafales,
Update 1900 GMT French fighter fires first shots at 1645 GMT, destroying a tank or a BMP. Approximately 20 French aircraft are involved in the flights over Libya. Canadian fighters reach Italy, will not be ready to enter action till Tuesday. Italy offers NATO forces use of seven airbases.
Update 1800 GMT Italian fighters over Libya on reconnaissance flights. Gaddafi forces appear to have pulled back in Benghazi and fighting seems to have diminished
Update 1615 GMT French TV station BFM TV reports French jets over Benghazi
From other reports we gather these are reconnaissance flights, probably out of Corsica. AFP reports Rafele fighters took off from St. Dizier in Eastern France. The French President says his aircraft are ready to commence strikes against loyalist ground forces.
Update 1400 GMT A Paris meeting to formalize acton on the Libya NFZ is underway. Enforcement is expected to begin after the meeting ends in about an hour. Meanwhile, loyalist forces have entered the suburbs of Benghazi. Rebels say they captured four tanks and pushed the loyalists back. Fighting continues at Misrata, which is located in western Libya but lies east of Tripoli. Fighting may still be continuing at Ajdabiya, which is southwest of Benghazi at a distance of about 160-km.
Approximately 70-80% of the Libyan Air Force is not in flying condition. Readers may like to note that the media has been referring to BMPs as tanks

0230 GMT Gaddaffi forces still advancing on Benghazi

Meanwhile, fighting for the western town of Misrata (the town is east of Tripoli) is still going on, despite fears on several occasions that it had fallen to the loyalists. It's unlikely Misrata will hold on much longer as the loyalists are using tanks and artillery to attack rebel positions. Should loyalists reach Benghazi their advance will stall because the city has a million inhabitants. There is no manner in which the few thousand loyalists on the eastern front can take the city.

Later in the morning today a meeting will be held in Paris to clear the way for the first military action against Libyan government troops. The US has said Gaddaffi is in violation of the ceasefire, and the French are promising action within "hours" of the meeting. The military action will not have the limited aim of stopping the advance on Benghazi or the offensive in Misrata. President Obama has said the aim is the withdrawal of loyalist forces from all town and cities, but everyone understands that the aim is the removal of Gaddaffi. He cannot be permitted to survive, now that the NFZ has been declared.

Air power for Libya NFZ

Ares, a defense blog at www.aviationnow.com , says that France has at this time 16 fighter aircraft in Corsica, training for Afghanistan. Ares estimate of the possible US deployment to Italy/Sicily includes up to two F-22 squadrons, two EW jamming C-130s, 2-3 E-8 JSTARS (used to identify ground vehicles) and with NATO sufficient E-3s to maintain two orbits off Libya. Additionally, US already has a carrier air wing off Libya, with its core complement of 48 AF-18s, though there is space on the carrier for reinforcements. We expect UK will deploy around 20 Typhoons and Tornados. Spain and Canada might deploy a total of 20 F-18s. If Oman and UAE join, which we, at least don't see why they should, then two F-16 squadrons are also available.

Now that wasn't so hard, was it, Secretary Gates? The No Fly Zone was cleared by the UN. Colonel Gaddaffi's forces announced a unilateral ceasefire and wish for negotiations. No one had to take down the Libyan Air Force and its bases and air defenses. The loyalists just sort of gave up.
Again: we have not, and will not, make fun of the SecDef if he questions the rationale for intervening in Libya. We are making fun of him because he acted as if the US Atlantic Fleet was about to attack the Murmansk Peninsula during the Cold War. That would have been one tough fight. Col. Gaddaffi? Not so much.
Meanwhile, Yemen security forces killed 40 demonstrators yesterday, using snipers
NATO sending fighter aircraft to the Mediterranean We have above an estimate from an Aviation Week blog combined with our own estimate, for the provision of up to 150 fighter aircraft for the Libya NFZ.
The UK report of preparing Tornados and Typhoons coincides with several reports that buyers who refuse to identify themselves are calling up British wreckers and garbage dumps to ask if they have any Typhoons and Tornados for sale. France, Canada, and Spain have said they are sending fighters. Egypt has closed its air space to Libya to-and-from air traffic.
Oh, Gaffy, Gaffy, Where Art Thou? (Editor has been doing a 3-week stint as an English sub in a high school. Not as outre as one might think as he is, among other things, studying for certification in English to add to his current certifications in Math and Social Studies. The 9th Graders are studying Romeo and Juliet. The Shakespere text is backed up with the Clare Danes/Leonardo diCaprio movie version. Editor is impressed with the serious cuteness of the young couple, as with diCaprio's ability to deliver "Why? Why? Why?" speeches at 200 decibels. You start to wonder why its just Juliet who shoots herself. The audience wants to join her.)
Back to the literary allusions. There's a bit of a mystery. When the No Fly Zone was announced, Gaffy threatened no mercy to the people of Benghazi - he was saying it before the NFZ thing too, and said Libya would attack civil airliners over the Mediterranean. (Note to Bro' Gaffy: not the soundest tactical move when you're already accused of downing a civil airliners over Scotland. Perfect timing for the NFZ people to say "See? We told you he's a mad dog and needs to be shot down.") Point being, no mention of a ceasefire and handing himself over for trial.
So one wonders: has Gaffy been sidelined by his Foreign Minister who is, to out it kindly, now a US stooge? Is Gaffy still ruling?
BTW, Libya's Foreign Minister says there is no need for alarm at reports fighting is still going on in some places as the Libyan armed forces are extending their protection to all Libyans.
Important announcement from Editor Orbat.com now extends his protection to all chocolate bars in the world. The chocolate will be stored in the Editor's 'fridge at his home. The Editor promises he will keep all four eyes fixed firmly on the 'fridge at all times. Fridge will be opened only to test that the stock within is keeping as fresh as promised. Urp. Pardon us.
Grrrr Bow Wow Bow Grrrr Bow Wow Bow That's President Obama on the subject of Libya. The other day he didn't want to intervene - and we accepted he had a point. Now he's been pulled into the No Fly Zone, and you should hear his stern warnings to Colonel Gaddaffi. Even as he delivers these stern warnings in a voice and tone that make one think of a 12-year old trying to imitate his strict father, he sternly announces the US will not intervene on the land. The incongruity of the juxtaposed messages is hilarious.
FRY nations form joint military unit for missions with ISAF Afghanistan, says reader Marcopetroni quoting the Italian news service ANSAMED March 15, 2011: "In the past days, the Belgrade daily Press reports, the formation of a joined military unit of soldiers from various counties of former Yugoslavia was started. This unit will be assigned to the multinational taskforce ISAF in Afghanistan. It includes troops from Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia and Montenegro."
Interesting.
Berlo, Berlo, Berlo: Why are you letting your fans - er - down? When we heard those cruel and nasty Italian women were verbally flagellating Berlo of Italy, we put it down to envy that they had not been invited to the Bunga Bunga Club. But now, according to Indiatimes.com quoting an Italian paper, Berlo says: ""Do you really think all this is possible?" "I am 75 and even though I am a bit of a mischievous one... 33 girls in two months is too many, even for a 30-yearold . It's too many for anybody." He said he has a girlfriend who was always with him and would not have allowed what the prosecutors allege."
We are devastated at this complete display of pathetic-ness. Berlo, even if it is true you are not the Superman we believed, couldn't you lie so we can keep our illusions?
The lawyer in us notes that the prosecutors's allegation about the number of ladies Berlo - er - entertained is quite irrelevant. Under Italian law, only two issues are relevant. Was one of the ladies underage? Italian law forbids paying for underage sex. And did Berlo use state assets to entertain his - er - friends?
The second charge is not all that serious because 100% clean politicians in Italy are rarer than unicorns in Pennsylvania's hunting country. Berlo can always give a boyish smile and repay the exchequer. He has a few billion American to his name.
The first charge is also a bit dicey because both Berlo and Ruby Heart Stealer deny any - er - religious study. Moreover, with women lining up to be paid the large sums that Berlo offered his ladies, their credibility as witnesses may be in doubt.
But the legal part of our mind also requires us to admit: the prosecution is not saying Berlo had sex with 33 women. They are saying he paid 33 women for sex, Different thing altogether. Anyway, as we said, 32 of the 33 don't count. Moreover, instead of people going "OMG! What an old lecher!" people will go "OMG! What a fantastic person!". So this tactic could backfire.
Please note there is no likelihood of a trial being completed and a final verdict handed down after appeals before Berlo departs for the Great Bunga Bunga Party In The Sky. The mills of Italian justice grind slowly, but they do not grind surely
More on the X-37B Richard Thatcher writes to say people who keep track of US satellites and spacecraft are complaining the X-37 is not easy to track. That suggests it is stealthed, and you'd need it to be if it is going to creep up on enemy satellites.
Meanwhile both Mr.. Thatcher and reader Luxembourg have been discussing the problem of space debris. Turns out US is contemplating shining lasers through telescopes at pieces of space junk. The photons will impart a very slight momentum to a piece of junk. This could move it away from a satellite or set in in an orbat to crash into the atmosphere.

0230 GMT March 18, 2011

For the latest technical information on Fukushima, visit

http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/

Power cable to Reactor 2 will be attached by around 1600 GMT

There is a curious disconnect between the straightforward news as delivered by the above industry source, and the news as delivered by the MSM. If you read Reuters at 2330 GMT last night, for example, you would not know that the Japanese are bringing the damaged reactors under control. Reuters, for example, headlines "Japanese engineers strive to restore power to avert catastrophe", where the real situation should read: "Danger recedes sufficiently to permit power restoration efforts." Another indicator is that now 180 workers are on site Previously there were only 50, and they were very hard-pressed to prioritize attention between the six reactors, three of which had been shot down before the tsunami. Another matter hard to learn from the MSM is that every day that passes means that the radioactivity of the cores reduces so each subsequent day is a bit safer than the previous one. At Chernobyl in 1986 60-odd people were killed on site, and 5000 are said to have died of cancer (above and beyond normal death rates). we'd like someone to compare that 25-year toll to the number of coal miners who die each year and the number of miners who die prematurely due to coal-induced diseases. We are not saying that the lessons of Fukushima should not be closely studied and improvements made. Still, one should keep in mind that Fukushima's 10 reactors (4 are not touched by the earthquake) are in a very active seismic zone, and have undergone 20 times as many earthquakes as the two US reactors that are in seismic zones.

Meanwhile, readers may want to consider this report from CNN: despite the tragedy, destruction, and large-scale confusion the Japanese people are undergoing, not a single case of looting has been reported. http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/03/16/restoring-japan-confidence-and-its-peoples-big-dreams/

UN Security Council Authorizes Libya No-Fly Zone

The vote was 10-0 with five absentations including Russia and China.
Gaddaffi tells the rebels to expect his forces in Benghazi today. UK says its forces could be in action over Libya as early as today. For the technically minded, it will not take much to stop loyalist forces. Just shooting down a plane or two will ground the Libyan Air Force, and a couple of ground attacks on loyalists forces will be sufficient to get them to stop or even reverse course. But, in the spirit of counting chickens only after hatching. Orbat.com says we shall see what we see when we see.
US is reported deploying airborne troops to the Mediterranean. The resident Mediterranean zone unit, 173rd Airborne Brigade is returning or has returned from Afghanistan. Part of the brigade resides in Germany. So far we have no information if its 173rd has been alerted or units from 82nd Division at Ft. Bragg. No indication of anything happening from the Fayetteville Observer.

0230 GMT March 17, 2011

The not-so-important news

Our Man In Lahore Freed The family members of the two Pakistanis he killed "forgave" him in court, at which point the court acquitted him. The only thing hilarious about the affair is the US Secretary of State says no blood-money was paid. Gosh, these Pakistanis are so generous of heart, they forgave the killer of their relations out of love. Okay, enough of this "The US Secretary of State should go on Saturday Night Live, she is so hilarious". It will be said she had to deny the payment of blood money. No, she didn't have to deny anything. But if she'd kept quiet then people would have said "Aha! The US paid." But that's what they're saying anyway, and she has made the US look absurd, because obviously the US paid.
No when we heard the news on NPR as we went from school to the gym, it was obvious to us - and we are sure to everyone else - that money is not the only part of the deal. US visas for the families have to be included. Why? Because the fundamentalists that were telling the families not to accept the deal - and the families had proclaimed they wanted justice, not money - will kill them if they can find them.
So no surprise when BBC reported that the lawyers for one family said they knew nothing about the deal, and 8 family members are not to be found.
Lest you be tempted to think the Pakistan Government was not pressured or bought off, just because the families forgave OMIL does not mean the courts were obliged to acquit the American. He is guilty of breaching several Pakistan laws, including espionage, meeting with terrorists, carrying weapons, and driving a vehicle with fake plates. Enough to keep him jailed after one hundred forgivenesses.
Libya Loyalists have jumped to Ajdabiya, the last city before Benghazi. The rebels say they pushed the loyalists back, but apparently the loyalists make a practice of pulling back if they don't gain easy passage. They then reorganize for the next attack.
We were a bit baffled because our information was that only the Khamis brigade was fighting for Gaddaffi. Apparently another army unit, the 32nd Brigade, is also fighting for him and then there are several thousand mercenaries.
Meanwhile, G8 refused to consider a no-fly zone. What G8 has to do with it we have no clue. If every woman and her brother-in-law have to be consulted before the west intervenes, its a foregone conclusion the rebels have had it in this round. US Secretary of State mysteriously hints we will see some action to help the rebels, but if US, UK, France were moving units for a no-fly zone we'd have heard about it. If they're sending in small teams with military aid we wouldn't have heard about it.
By the way, that the rebels are capturing so many tanks doesn't mean a thing. They captured 7 alone yesterday at Ajdabiya. What's happening in most cases is that the tanks either break down (mainly) or get a track shot off (rarely), and the loyalists bail out because the units for field repair are not there.
Bahrain So with arrival of Saudi and UAE reinforcements, the repression is fully underway. Troops have stormed the square were the demonstrators have gathered for weeks, three civilians are dead, a hospital which treats civilian wounded has been seized, demonstrations are banned and so on.
US reaction? Quite from BBC: "US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said she was alarmed by developments in Bahrain." US has called for restraint.
Actually official US is weeping with joy that another country is not going to fall to the Shias. But as we said the other day, they're the majority in Bahrain. You either believe in democracy or you don't.

The important news: the Hypocrite and the Carpetbagger of the House

We know nothing about the Speaker of the US House. Couldn't tell you from where he comes. Not interested in contaminating the purity of our mind. Nothing except that he weeps a lot. To us this suggests a man who is narcissistic and unstable. As far as Editor is concerned, there is only one reason for which a man is permitted to weep. Your best friend runs off with your wife and you miss him. Weeping is allowed. Otherwise not.
But yesterday we learned two more things about this gentleman, and we are unhappy.
First, while he has been storming around demanding spending cuts, he has thrown his support behind a plan to provide Washington DC school students vouchers so they can study in Catholic schools (the vouchers wouldn't cover more than a couple of months in Washington DC's private schools, which are way expensive, but suffice for Catholic schools. He says he knows money is tight, but "we can do this" (or something like that).
So what this gentleman means is: "Programs I don't like are pork and waste, programs I like we can afford". This makes him a Big Fat Hypocrite and shows he is not serious about deficit reduction. Further, he is setting up the stage for partisan warfare of a particularly nasty type that could cripple American political governance - not that we have a whole lot right now.
Second, the citizens of Washington DC have rejected vouchers, but this Speaker Person seeks to make political points though he doesn't represent Washington DC residents, who don't get to vote for their own representatives to the US House and Senate. Insofar as he wants to add to his power on the back of DC citizens, he is a carpetbagger.
Now, lets back up a bit. Is Editor against vouchers for Catholic Schools? Not a bit. He is all for them. But that doesn't mean there are not arguments against the idea. One is that the state should not be supporting church schools. So if Editor could vote, and the matter were put to a vote, he would vote "yes" to government money for Catholic schools because he believes in Catholic Schools. (Editor is not a Catholic, by the way). But he would understand if many people vote "nay". But he'd be madder than a wet bear if this speaker person came to the Editor's school district, overrode the residents, and started throwing his weight around, even if that money went to Catholic Schools.
But there is a larger issue, and this speaker person has walked into a major trap that could potentially cause him to lose an arm and a leg.
The trap is this. If its okay for a parent to use her voucher for Catholic school in the name of school choice, it is okay for the same parent to use her voucher for an Islamic school. And there's plenty of Muslims in Washington DC.
Now let's wait for the penny to drop. May take some time: the speaker is after all only an American politician. They're a bit slow.

0230 GMT March 16, 2011

Indian Navy captures 61 pirates, frees 13 hostages reports Ajai Shukla. This is by far the largest number of pirates captured. They were seized from a mothership, the Vega 5, 1000-km off the Indian coast. The way the Indian legal systems works - snail is a champion sprinter compared to the legal system - these pirates will not be heard from for a long time.
The same blog reports that the Indian-made Dhurv helicopter has lifted 600-kg to the Siachin Glacer's (and the world's) highest manned outpost at 21,000-feet. We gather from the story that four unfortunate soldiers are stationed here. The RFP called for a 200-kg payload, this has been exceed by a factor of three. The previous high-altitude champ, the French-designed, Indian-built Cheetah, can lift 20-kg. So of a sudden, the lift capacity has increased by 30-times.
A significant percentage of the Dhurv's components are imported, but rare is the weapon system these days that's wholly indigenous unless you happen to be the US, Russia, or China). Output of this helicopter is 24/year, now being stepped up to 36/year. Fifty-four anti-armor versions are on order among other versions. http://ajaishukla.blogspot.com/2011_03_01_archive.html
N-power We were going to mention that newer reactors than the Fukushima types have passive emergency water cooling systems to protect against the very contingency that crippled Fukushima, water pumps that wont function for any reason. The water is dropped using the force of gravity, so you don't need power.
More than that, the new passive reactor designs don't require operators to do X to shut them down. These reactors shut off the minute operators fail to do X. This is a critical difference. Moreover, they are designed to vent heat by convention in the event of a failure. Incidentally, they are also designed that the hotter the core gets, the more the n-reaction slows down. And on top of that, the new reactors are designed to be economical in sizes of, say, 300-MW as opposed to the giant 1-1.1 gigawatt reactors of today, and can be placed underground for extra security.
The reason there's no point discussing this is that the discovery and exploitation of US shale gas, using the process very rudely called "Fracking" (for fracturing, but its a given if the Americans can turn a normal word into a rude word, they'll do it) has pushed gas prices to $4/1000-cubic-feet, or a third of where prices were at peak, and has rendered N-reactors moot, at least for now. The economics are against it now. Of course, the economics of the passive reactors are different because they need less complicated and fewer redundant systems for safety, but still.
Also, of course, fracking involved injected water and chemicals at high pressure into the earth. There is always a risk of contaminating drinking water supplies. The greens are fighting hard against this new process.
We have nothing against greens; if we had money we'd give greens some because how can one be against someone who wants to keep the earth pristine. The problem is, how do we keep the earth pristine when we keep growing in numbers and our every increasing standard of living requires the use of ever more energy?
The greens are looking at the tail end of the problem - how power is produced. They need to look at the start, which is to reverse population growth, and to persuade people to return to the level of energy used in the 1950s (at the efficiencies of the 2010s, of course).
In this process, anyone connected with the US faces a grave disadvantage. 1.4-billion Chinese, 1.2-billion Indians, and going on to 0.6-billion Africans will say: "Gee, how nice. You've built up your standard of living and you want us to cut back on ours. Go do something rude to a camel."
You also have the problem of persuading Americans to drastically reduce energy use. Its true, for example, that a 2400-square-foot house today uses half as much energy as the same size 40 years ago. But a 1200-square-foot house would cut that in half. If we went back to living in cities, one car per family would suffice instead of two or even three or four cars a family. So yes, the new American cars get 40 to 50-mpg, but if you cut the number of cars by half, you'd severely reduce oil use. And so on.
Who is going to accept these changes?
Bahrain The country has declared a state of emergency as of yesterday. State security forces will run the country for the next 90-days at least.
So now people are saying that Saudi Arabia and UAE etc had to intervene in Bahrain because the Iranians have been stirring up trouble. The other day people were saying Iran is lying low because it figures it just has to let nature take its own course. So what's changed?
Nothing except the need to drum-up a new explanation for a new situation. There is no proof Iranians are meddling more than they usually meddle.
BTW, a question. Bahrain is Shia majority. So do we agree to Saudi Arabia and the Emirates intervening and continuing the repression of the majority just because Iran is a Shia country and is meddling? How does this make sense? Further, it can be argued that if Bahrain gets freedom and representational rule, it will increase pressure - on Iran.

0230 GMT March 15, 2011

Libya Reports say the rebels have slowed the loyalist advance from Brega to Benghazi, but we wouldn't put much store in that report. The attacker always needs time to reorganize to make the next offensive. The question arises: what royalist troops were slowed down? Were they an advanced column doing reconnaissance, perhaps? If so, slowing the loyalists has no meaning, because the reconnaissance is meant to discover the next line of resistance. You learn what you can, and then wait for the main force to come up. Its not a rebel victory.
Of more interests are reports which may be true or may not be true saying that Gaddaffi's main fighting unit, the Khamis Brigade, has seen a mutiny with some officers and men saying they will not attack civilians. They make clear they're not going over to the rebels, just that they wont war on civilians.
Problem with these reports is that unless one has a source sitting in the Khamis Brigade, or is in a position to monitor the Brigade's communication, and we sure don't, you can't really say for sure.
If you are in the business of making scenarios - classic situation where your boss is screaming at you "I don't care how murky the situation is, I want a report on which I can act", its best to assume that Gaddaffi & Co. will arrive at the gates of Benghazi. Whether they will be able to take it is another matter because its a big city and the heart of the rebellion. At the same time, best to keep in mind that the rebel fighters have absolutely no clue what they are doing. As someone on NPR said (finally an intelligent comment from NPR) its not like this rebellion has been brewing for years and that the rebels have a complete organization including a trained force of fighters. That's why we are advising our clients (we don't have any, but that sounds grand) that safest to assume Gaddaffi does take Benghazi and the rebels revert to Stage 1 guerilla war.
Libya invites Russia, China, India to take over oil fields Its a logical move, but a non-starter. Pretty soon you're going to see an embargo on investing in Libya. You can say the Chinese don't give a hoot about embargos, they need energy. Instinct, however, tells us the Chinese are going to be very careful in Libya. We're being truthful and telling you its instinct, instead of citing anonymous sources a la Main Stream Media
Fukushima Just wanted to note: people over the world are soiling their panties about the possibility of an uncontained melt-down at Fukushima.
So lets say that does happen, and lets say that like Chernobyl 25,000 people die. Heck, lets throw caution to the winds. Say 100,000 people die.
So let's keep in mind: depending on what source you use, 4- to 5-million people every year die from tobacco.
The Fukushima reactors have at least produced power for 30-40 years. What productive purpose has tobacco served?
Saudi Arabia, UAE sends troops, police to Bahrain UAE is sending 500 police, Saudi Arabia has already sent 1000 police and is sending troops as protests against the regime escalate. It isnt so much a matter of "Freedom Now" as far as we are concerned. It's a question of "We Shia are in the majority and we want our rights now." While the North African thing may have provided the immediate trigger, its the Iraq thing that is really driving the Bahrain thing: Iraq's ruling Sunni minority has been overthrown courtesy USA, the Shias now rule.
I think we've all figured out by now US is not terribly enthusiastic about Libya falling to the rebels because it doesn't want a destabilization of the Emirates and Saudi on account of the oil thing.
We thought we'd be outraged at this craven US reaction. But we've decided not to get outraged. Keeping rebels from taking over oil-exporting countries serves US short-term interests. It doesn't serve US long-term interests because sooner or later, if not today then 20-years from now, the repressive Arab regimes will fall and as happened in Iran, we'll be caught on the wrong side of history. Nonetheless, its almost always very hard to do the right long-term thing at the cost of short-term interests.

0230 GMT March 14, 2011

Libyan loyalists are now 60-kilometers from Ajdabiya, which is 150-km from Benghazi. As the west continues to debate options, one evident goal of US policy will soon be achieved: if Benghazi falls, Gaddaffi can claim to have defeated the rebellion. There will then be no urgency for the US to act; it can sit back and rely on passive measures such as a naval embargo. Please note we are not saying US policy is for the loyalists to win. US policy is to avoid any of the risks that will arise from active intervention, which at this time basically amounts to the same thing as supporting Gaddaffi. The fall of Benghazi will not mean the end of the rebellion. Just as Gaddaffi and his fighters must fight to the last, the rebels too must fight to the last. Gaddaffi's forces have already begun taking people away in the towns the loyalists have reclaimed. We can assume the rebels are not being treated to tea parties, free foot massages, and coupons for the next big shopping holiday. The rebels will have to revert to Stage 1 insurgency, where they control no territory, but strike from within the people. If Benghazi falls, at least at Orbat.com we will be able to return to the same-old same-old reporting/analysis. Oh yes: did we mention US is very worried about Saudi dissidents getting ideas? This is one of the many reasons for not using force in Libya.

Four things that should drive normal people crazy

A US Senator by name of Dick Durban was on NPR yesterday, saying in solemn and mellifluous tones that the US must, absolutely must, start releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to bring down gasoline prices.
Now, we have no idea who the good senator is, and nor do we want to know. We refuse to contaminate our ideological purity by taking seriously any member of the US Congress, because as far as we are concerned, the terms "member of US Congress" and "intelligent" are a contradiction. People keep telling us that actually US Congresspeople are very intelligent, but its the exigencies of politics that makes them say stupid things. By that reasoning, Editor can declare himself to be a multiple-Nobel genius, but further argue he doesn't want people to hate him because he's so smart, so he acts the fool all the time.
Possibly the good Senator Durbin is unaware of the purpose of the SPR. Since allegedly he, like other members of his tribe, are supposed to actually be very smart, we don't need to give him an extended lecture on this issue.
So we will give him the short version, the Cliff Notes version, at it were. Point the First: The SPR was created to hedge against oil supply disruptions. Repeat: Oil Supply Disruptions. It was not created for the government to interfere in the market when prices go up.
Point the Second: there is no oil supply disruption. The market is well supplied despite the loss of Libyan production. The prices have gone up because of speculation. There is therefore no case for releasing oil from the SPR.
The end, and thank you all very much.
The US Department of Defense spends $3-billion a year on cancer research Now, obviously cancer research is very important. Cancer is a dreadful disease. We are not against cancer research. But when the Washington Post informs us that US DOD is spending $3-billion on the issue, like Washington Post and other we at Orbat.com are forced to ask: Why?
This is exactly the kind of thing that drives people who want government to be so small it can be drowned in a bathtub absolutely insane, foaming-at-the-mouth and biting-people insane. Truth to tell, Editor is not anti-government. He is saying we can no longer afford a government is not the same thing as being anti-government. he is a a true believer in the Full-Monty-Government, bells, whistles, and kazoos included, plus tinkling triangles, dancing fairies, and a Marilyn-Monroe-for every-man sort of thing. (We are not slighting women: we have no clue what sort of man women want the government to provide, and frankly we don't want to know, because it will be just one more sad reminder that whatever that man's attributes, they will not be the same attributes the Editor exhibits.) Its just that if we can't afford a government, we can't afford a government, no matter how desirable government may be. We can't afford a government: that includes the executive, legislative, and judicial branches, the military, social security, medicare, and anything else that government does. If we are clear on this, we can move on.
That US DOD is given $3-billion a year for cancer research shows something is very, very wrong with the US executive and legislative branches. It's symptomatic of a sickness so deep that maybe the libertarians and extreme right-wingers are right. Maybe we do need a revolution and to start all over again.
An American pundit spoke about the implications of the Japan N-reactor incident on NPR yesterday. Please note, we say "incident", and not disaster, catastrophe, or end-of-the-world event, because it is really, truly, just an incident.
The pundit said President Obama's plan for clean energy has several sources of energy, including N-power. He opined that the Japan Fukushima incident should cause us to rethink the whole thing of N-power. Deeply, deeply rethink. The pundit said (paraphrase): "the N-power industry tells us it will build much safer reactors, but since they haven't built a reactor in 40 years, how can we be sure they know what they're talking about?"
Several words - unkind ones - came to our mind on hearing this punditary. Words such as fool, poltroon, idiot, moron, retard, fused-light-bulb, dip-stick, flatworm were some of the words. We don't dare use these words because then we'd have a non-stop series of demonstrations in front of Editor's house where every fool, poltroon, idiot, moron, retard, fused-light-bulb, dip-stick, and flatworm in the world would gather and accuse us of our insulting their intelligence, which is much higher than that of this pundit. Frankly, we don't mind the fools, idiots, morons and so on, but we get queasy when hordes of flatworms are demonstrating outside. To get in and out the house Editor would have to tread on the flatworms, and they're kind of disgustingly squishy.
If this pundit is what passes for intelligence in America, we are eternally safe from invasion by space aliens. The space aliens will not bother invading us because they will be quickly convinced earthies pose no threat to them whatsoever, since earthies have an IQ approximately equal to that of sea sponges...uh oh, here come the sea sponges demonstrating outside saying we've insulted them, because compared to Washington pundits, sponges are Mensa class. sorry - abject apologies.
Has it occurred to the pundit that the US is not the only country in the world? Has it occurred to him that just because we haven't built a reactor in four decades doesn't mean that hundreds have not been built globally? So, surprise! - we do know if modern designs are safe or not. So we can evaluate if we should take or not take the N-power industry at its word on safety.
Duh.
School choice A lot of people make a decent living these days - or at least get into the news - by telling us that our public schools are failing. Our kids deserve school choice to escape failing schools, they say. Fair enough, we agree there should be school choice, particularly as Editor is a teacher and knows a bit about whereof he speaks.
If we are really talking about choice, these people build their own schools, and give the market a chance to operate. If their schools do a better job, fair enough, we should shut down public education and eliminate school taxes.
But it turns out, school choice people don't believe in the market. They want the government to give them taxpayer money so that they can make a profit off the taxpayer. By what stretch of the imagination is this "choice" and "market"? What these people want is to feed at the public trough. So how does it make them any different from the public employees they say shouldn't feed at the public trough?
And you know what? People already have a market choice. They can send their children to private school. We have any number of very good private schools in the Washington Metro area. Oh yes, their tuitions start at $30,000/year. People talk of parochial schools, which charge less. Actually, you'd be surprised at how much parochial high schools charge. Its the elementary school that are cheap. And because Editor worked ten years in parochial schools, he is qualified to tell you how parochial elementary schools keep their tuition low.
In 2004, Editor's last year at parochial school, the principal, who had over 30-years of experience as a principal, was paid $16,000 a year. Yes, she got free board and lodging and health care in the convent. But her salary was given to the convent in exchange for the free board etc. You guessed, she's a nun. Where are the Mr. and Mrs. Private Sector going to get a 30-year experienced principal for $16,000? On top of that, the parish subsidizes the schools from money given to it by parishioners. Poor schools are subsidized by the Archdiocese of Washington. And guess what? The Archdiocese wants to get out of the education business because it cannot afford to educate the large numbers of non-Catholics who flock to Catholic schools. Parochial schools are cheaper than private schools because they are heavily subsidized.
Now, Mr. and Mrs. Private Sector are going to say: "But it's not fair that parents have to pay school taxes as well as pay for private school."
You know, Editor completely agrees. It's unfair. So here's what he suggests: every parent sending her child to private school should not have to pay school taxes. Starting, like, immediately. (We had to put in the "like" since we're talking about schools. Adds atmosphere and color.)
And guess what's going to happen? Lower income parents will not be able to afford school, because higher income people subsidize school costs for lower income people. And guess what again? People who have no children in school will say they shouldn't have to pay any school taxes - free market says you shouldn't have to pay for services and goods you don't receive.
The end result? Parents of school-age children will have to pay $15,000/year for lousy schools, and they will have to pay $30,000/year for good schools.
This will solve the problem of public education once and for all. Except for the top 5% of earners, no American will be able to send their children to school.
The reason everyone in the US gets to go to school is because of the notion of "common sacrifice for the common good". I do not have a child in school. But I pay my share of school taxes based on the worth of my house so that people who do have children in school don't have to face unaffordable sticker prices. I am happy to pay now, because I did have children in public schools. I benefited from the sacrifices other people without children in school made.
Hmmmm. "Common sacrifice for the common good." Now darn it, where does it say that in the Holy Book of The Market?
And we're out of time, else we'd comment on that great Nobel Prize winning economist, Grover Norquist. who said something particularly brilliant to the Washington Post about the deficit, taxes, and growth. Another time.

0230 GMT March 13, 2011

Update 1535 GMT March 13, 2011

Rebel forces have been defeated at Brega according to loyalists sources, not denied by the rebels. This puts loyalists two-thirds of the way from the Tunisian border (west) to the Egyptian border (east) and within range of Benghazi, the defacto rebel capital. The loyalist drive has thus recovered most of the towns lost to the rebels. The back and forth across Libya is reminiscent of the World War II fighting. Unless the west intervenes, the rebels will be where Rommel found himself in 1943: out of space, out of weapons/munitions, and out of hope. Of course, if the rebels use Libya's vast spaces to conduct mobile war, as did Rommel with his severely limited resources, they could easily set out from Benghazi heading west again. Needless to say, Rommel was one of the greatest generals of World War 2, and the German Army the most highly trained.

Does the US President suffer from the "Bill Clinton Syndrome" ? Bubba, as we know too well, loves to talk. He honestly gets off on the sound of his own voice. Where five words will do, Bubba has to use fifty - and then explain the fifty using five hundred more.
Its time to ask if President Obama suffers from BCS. Our immediate concern is that after the Arab League announced it backed a no-fly zone, the President again said the US was considering such a zone and the Arab suggestion would add pressure on Colonel Gaddaffi.
Earlier the President said there has to be a consensus on a no-fly zone. The rebels have asked, now the Arab League is asking, but that isn't enough for Mr. Obama because he is still considering the NFZ as an option.
Further, in again talking about increasing pressure on Colonel Gaddaffi, the US President again shows his penchant for words as opposed to action.
How does talking about a NFZ add pressure on Col. Gaddaffi? US has already said he will get no immunity; International Criminal Court has already started an investigation, and we're told once ICC get's this far, it's just about impossible for it to reverse course. Col G has already lost a $100-billion of his pocket money, and we can safely assume that as and if more assets are discovered, they too will be seized. So Col. G's next stop after surrendering will be a nice, comfy cell in the Hague. So what incentive does he have to succumb to verbal pressure?
He would be exceedingly foolish to do anything except fight it out. And right now, he is not doing too badly. Now Misurata is going to come under attack. Col. G has only a few thousand fighters. But they are in the same boat as is he: fight or face rebel justice. Which is unlikely to be wither swift or kind. That's quite a powerful motivation.
So we'd like to repeat ourselves as well. The US should lead, follow, or get out of the way. Any of the three options is acceptable to us. What is unacceptable is this constant torrent of words, words, words. The President is channeling the BeeGees: It's only words/And words are all I have/To take your heart away."
If the President is going to do that, Editor will have to channel Joe Jones: "You talk too much, you
worry me to death/You talk too much, you even worry my pet/ You just talk, you talk too much."
Oh yes, the president said he was "heartbroken" by the Japan earthquake. Really? Seems to us another example of over speaking and devaluing the meaning of words. Does the President have so close a rapport with the affected areas that he is heartbroken? Has he lost anyone he loves dearly? Does he see pathos in the earthquake? Is he so terribly sensitive? Bosh and rubbish. Bill Clinton could get away with this nonsense because he genuinely felt everyone's pain. If a swallow fell from the skies over Terra del Fuego, Bill Clinton wept. If an earthworm got run over by a truck in Sri Lanka Bill Clinton was so distraught he could not eat. If an ant died of old age in Vladivostok, Bill Clinton was so grieved he gave up alcohol and women for a whole day. But Mr. Obama heartbroken? Nah.
And as for the media going on and on about the Japan earthquake toll, media needs to get a grip on itself. The 1976 China earthquake killed over 650,000 people. That was a real disaster. Was anyone outside China heartbroken? Nah. Of course, in 1976 we didn't have hypermedia, but Editor was in India at the time and remembers quite clearly no one was heartbroken. In India they're quite stoic. Stuff happens. People die. Bad luck, chaps. That remains an honest attitude compared to the President's heart which is now broken.

Using the X-37B to plant anti-satellite mines

Richard Thatcher

Several factors would determine whether such mines would be detectable or not.
Your idea of the mine "hiding" in the "shadow" (space side) of the satellite so as not to be seen by radars (and ladars [laser radars]?) would be one of those factors. The mine would have to get pretty close to the spaceward side of the target satellite (say a foot of so for smaller ones and several feet for bigger ones) in order to avoid being "seen" by Earth based radar "looking" at the sat. from different angles.
The mine's shape (rounded surfaces defect energy off and away from a radar receiver much better the flat ones), and the materials it is made of (less metal, more plastic and/or ceramics means less stuff that actually can "bounce" back a radar pulse). Adding in some radar absorbent materials would also help in weakening a radar return.
It's size is an issue as well, smaller being more difficult to "see".
Likely there will be at least two different sizes, a small one for small sized sats and a larger one for the heavier versions. As there is no air in space to "transfer" the energy of a explosive shockwave that means the main "killing power" for close proximity mines would come from fragments smashing to the target satellite with what bit of energy from the explosion adding some to the damage and, maybe, knocking the sat of course if they are lucky.
Actual attachment to the sat. would be better both for concealment and for inflicting damage. In this case you would use a shaped charge with the "business" end pressed against the side/wall of the satellite. This would allow for the mine to be smaller as its explosive energy would go in one direction (Things would be better if there were some fragments added in to bounce around inside) and that is into the "victim" sat. Attachment would allow for the mine to "blend in" with the "victim" satellite's own radar return.
Only possible problem with the attachment solution is that the added mass of the mine might be noticed when the operators maneuver he satellite now and then.
The only other issue is how long the mine(s) can hold up in the harsh space environment. More shielding means a longer life but, that means it/they would be bigger and heavier and, thus, more detectable.
If the mines are the proximity version they will need to be able to maneuver some to stay in the desired position for two reasons. 1) to keep from running into the satellite dur to the micro gravitational pull between satellite and mine. 2) To be able to follow/shadow the satellite if and when its operators choose to maneuver it into a different orbit.
Many of these problems could be resolved by attaching the mine to the sat would solve a lot of problems. And if the opposition operators notice that their sat has "gained" a bit of weight what are thy going to do? Complain to the UN? Non of the, as of yet, has any way to cover and return their satellites to Earth for a real inspection. They could accuse all they want but without any real proof....
Attaching to the sat. and using a shaped charge (second charge to fire fragments into the sat's interior?) would, if done right, have the advantage of leaving the "victim" satellite largely intact thus preventing additional space junk problems.
Further consideration might show that it's better to attach at least two mines to the satellite. This provides insurance that if/when you hit the "BOOM!" switch that at least one will go off. If both do, so much the better. I consider it very, very likely that the US military will want to create to least amount of debris as possible so the attached "just enough to do the job" shaped charge mine looks more viable. Also, you will, likely, want to attach pair of mines to sections of larger satellites in order to destroy/damage critical sections (transmitters, power sources, and such) while, again, avoiding the creation of additional space debris/junk.
Editor's contribution to this post was the suggestion that the mines be designed and identified to look like they were "Made in China". Saves US from explanations when other countries get the ability to do close inspections of their satellites.

0230 GMT March 12, 2011

So here it is Friday evening again, and Editor is sitting by himself (as usual) watching the remnants of a "sunset" in Takoma Park, Maryland, and wondering why is it this part of the world cannot produce the extraordinary sunsets Editor watched from his little apartment in the Himalayas. There the sunsets were like a painting by Turner, brilliant reds and yellows and golds that covered the western sky, progressing to madder lake, indigo, and purple as the sun went below the horizon. And because Editor lived at 2000-meters altitude, you could see so much sky that one could get vertigo. The other day someone was getting excited about a rainbow, and Editor had to refrain from scoffing in curmudgeonly fashion: "One rainbow? Why back home in the mountains twice I counted no less than seven rainbows, including two doubles." Then Editor had to remind itself the Himalayas were no longer home, Takoma Park, Maryland is home. Then he had to ask: could he be getting homesick in his old age? Not for India, bless its heart, but for his mountains and patch of sky. When Editor was at boarding school in the same town, after the summer season the population of the town used to fall below 10,000. The town was built on four ridges that met in the center of town like the meeting point of an X, and it was approximately 10-kilometers from the start of one ridge to the end of the next. The people were few and the lights, by American standards, weak: usually 25-watts or 40-watts. In the late autumn, the lack of backlight, the height, and the cold combined to provide a starscape you will never forget, because there were so many thousands stars in the sky, all sharp and clear, that you had to wonder the sky had room for all of them. But as Frodo discovered in The Lord of the Rings, you can't go back home again. The city now has a permanent census population approaching 430,000 people. Editor lost his little flat years ago, his grandparents and uncles are all dead, only a former father-in-law is still there. So there's no place to go back to, and no one to go back for. So its Takoma Park, Maryland for better or for worse now, at least as long one can pay the mortgage and the ever rising tax rates don't force one to leave.

Libya Zawiyah west of Tripoli has definitely fallen to the loyalists. after evacuating Ras Lanuf the rebels fought their way back in and hold part of the city.
The US chief of national intelligence is in the doghouse because - how dare he! - he told a Senate committee that Col. Gaddaffi will likely win. A Senator who was not even at the hearing wants the chief's resignation. Others say while he may be right, the chief shouldn't have said what he said in open forum because it undercuts US diplomacy.
First, we thought when a Senator at a hearing asks you a question, you either answer it, or claim executive privilege, or take the Fifth. These empty-heads who call themselves senators asked for his assessment, he gave it. Why were they in an open hearing if they didn't want his assessment published?
Second, right here you have in microcosm why this once great country is being run into the ground. The truth cannot be told because it undercuts US diplomacy? What diplomacy is that, pray tell? Has Gaddaffi shown the least worry about US diplomacy up to this point? Is he spending sleepless night because the President has said - for the Nth time - that all options are on the table including a no-fly-zone? Sure, Editor's options are on the table too, but you would be very foolish to assume he's going to get a date tonight. There's options and there's reality. The reality is that the funked-out Pentagon (funk as in turning yellow, as in fouling the seat of one's pants) now says even a no-fly zone is a violation of Libyan sovereignty.
Well, yes it is. What about the violation of Iraqi sovereignty in Gulf II? What about the overthrow of the Taliban government. Doubtless some lawyer will come forward and say: "ooooh, but that was different". Well, isn't it always different when the US wants to intervene? When someone else wants to intervene its illegal.
We've said before: we think its probably a good idea for the US not to get directly involved. Why can't the Administration just shut its yap which is as wide as the Pacific Ocean and as shallow as Sligo Creek next door and just say: "We don't think its a good idea to get directly involved?" Why keep pretending that we may get involved? Is there some law of physics that says we have to talk, talk, and talk while shadow-playing?
Personally, we're against expanding government spending seeing as America is bust. But we nonetheless propose that the people of the United States spring for Prozac for the Administration - and the Congress, and spring for the BIG pills. At least that will put the so-called executive and legislative branches into a stupor and we will have a blessed silence emanating from the US capital.
US permits ROK to increase missile range Under a bilateral US-ROK agreement, US will not transfer technology to ROK to permit land-based missiles with ranges greater than 300-km and payloads greater than 500-kg. This is also the MCTR limit as far as we recall.
Because DPRK has been developing longer-range missiles, says Japan's Asahi Shimbun US has agreed that ROK can have technology for 500-km range missiles; the payload will stay the same. Depending on DPRK's reaction, US could transfer technology for an 800-km range.
Pakistan, India test missiles Pakistan test-fired an 180-km missile, India did two operational/training launches of a Prithvi II and a seaborne Dhanush. The Indian missiles were picked at random from existing stocks.
Battlefield anti-rocket, anti-mortar, and anti-artillery systems Aviation Week has a nice summary of current systems deployed and in development at http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=defense&id=news/dti/2011/03/01/DT_03_01_2011_p26-289238.xml&headline=C-RAM%20Systems%20Become%20A%20Priority None of the systems seems to be tactically mobile, so they are used for defense of installations, but one supposes mobile systems will be next. If so, you could see another paradigm shift on the battlefield because till now there's nothing much you can do except hide if you're being bombarded.
Could the X-37B be planting micro-ASAT mines? We aren't much up on our weapons technology these days, but it occurred to us in the middle of the other night that it should be possible to plant a self-propelled micro-mine in the radar shadow adjacent to an enemy satellite and activate it to move in when needed.
Question for our better informed readers: since ground-based radars cannot see every piece of junk around a satellite, is there anything intrinsically impossible about this idea? You could even have your micro-mine attach itself to the satellite and then for sure no one ground-side will be able to make out its there. The other side would have to make close visual inspections of its satellite to make sure the little sucker was not clamped on.
That X-37B can in wartime attack enemy satellites is, of course, a given. But it would be so much simpler to rig up something that you could blow up dozens of satellites at one time, as needed.
Just a thought.
Cost of a US debt default Orbat.com's intelligence sources in Washington inform that a 20% devaluation of the US dollar will cost 1.5% GDP growth, i.e, six months worth, because of increased inflation. So a default that leads to the US dollar being devalued 4 to 1 should cost two years growth. Definitely do-able. By no means a tragedy. We're thinking of starting a separate website supporting an immediate default so that this generation, which has created the problem, pays the price and not our children. If we default later (and default is inevitable, folks), our children will pay the price. Lets do the right thing for once, and have the courage to take the consequences for our mistakes instead of punishing our children for our sins.
Before anyone accuses the Editor of any vested interest, if the US defaults and the subsequent US budgets are balanced, in the economic downturn Editor will likely lose his house, a significant part of his social security, and a good bit of his medicare. Since he has no savings whatsoever, and no assets to inherit from his parents, he will be hit worse than most people his age. So its not like he has a million or two and is advocating the lower- and middle-income Americans take the hit. The rich of course we will have to dispossess of their assets and send them to work digging ditches at $4/hour (Editor's guesstimate of what the minimum wage will fall to after default). If we in the lower- and middle-class have been profligate with our spending and not saved enough, the rich have dictated the warped political policies that have killed the US budget. A 93% tax rate such as used to be the top rate should do the job nicely, together will a 99% tax on their capital assets The money can be used to build surpluses for bad times.

0230 GMT March 11, 2011

US wimps out on Libya - and perhaps this gives the rebels a winning chance

Our latest information is that forget about a no-fly zone or air strikes, US isn't inclined even to ship arms and ammunition to the rebels. There has been argument made that the arms embargo imposed on Libya applies equally to the rebels.
Meanwhile, the DOD and its supporters continue to shame the United states by again and again telling us how hard it will be to take down Libyan air defenses. For example, we are being told that - OMG! Run and hide under your beds - that Libya has 100 SAM-2 and SAM-6 launchers. Good grief. If the US in the year of our lord cannot deal with SAM-2s, which are an over-50-year-old design, and SAM-6s, which are an over-40-year-old design, we suggest its time to dismantle US air power and save the country some money. From merely looking like a Sad Sack the US is increasingly looking like a neurotic, pathetic, Sad Sack.
That said, let's step back. The US record on intervention in the last 20-years has been so pathetic, confused, fuddled, badly executed, and even more badly thought out that rushing to aid the rebels might just be giving them the Kiss of Death. You're going to say that the Yugoslav interventions ended well. They did, after years of committing large numbers of troops and all sorts of air campaigns. Ultimately the covert action programs of training and arming anti-Serb groups probably did more to win than anything else. We still remember the fiasco where the US 1st Armored Division, designed and trained to be among the first formations to take the shock of a Soviet thrust westward, couldn't get an assault bridge across a river in spate for a whole month. Then there as the fiasco of getting the Apache helicopter battalions into the theatre. Shudder.
The problems in the Balkans, Somalia, Iraq and Afghanistan had/have nothing to do with the training, equipment, or courage of US forces, all of which is exemplary. It has to do with the higher command and the political-military interface and there is absolutely no evidence this has improved or changed.
Next, as President Obama has said privately and not so privately, landing US forces into a third Muslim country while at war in the first two, no matter how righteous the cause, is probably not a Good Idea. No one thought Iraq and Afghanistan would turn out the way they did. So what assurance is there a Libya intervention would not degenerate into a royal SNAFU?
Further, as Ron Paul and others have said, its time to get the US out of the global intervention business. When the US does intervene, it gets abused and reviled, and more so by its friends than its enemies. Sure if we're spending close to a trillion (all accounts counted) on national security, a few tens of billions here and there spent in Libya should make no difference. But look at it this way: when someone bankrupt needs to cut up his credit cards and live within his means, does it help if he says: "I already owe $100,000, what difference does it make for me to incur another debt of $2000?" It makes no sense for an individual, it equally makes no sense for a country.
Last, here is President O actually being multilateral, and he's being beaten over the head for not being unilateral. President Bush II acted unilateral, and got cursed for not being multilaterals. No matter what, Americans will find a reason to complain, and that's a good thing, because at least Americans still duke it out with words, versus duking it out with guns. Britain and France are more involved in Libya than the US has been since the good Colonel kicked the US out of Wheelus AFB (anyone remember good Wheelus?) There's nothing wrong with letting them take the lead.
Back in Libya Loyalist have retaken Raus Launf by using the old tactic of fixing the front and then attacking from a flank. The rebels are retreating, even as they seek to reorganize for a counterattack.
Loyalists have attacked Berga.
In Zwaiyah the rebels are STILL holding the city center. Good for them; we hope someone helps them.
France recognizes the Libyan rebel government, the Brits go: "Zounds" and "Ze Curses" and accuse France of grandstanding. But since France has recognized the rebels, it can help them.
France also moots select airstrikes against Gaddaffi HQs, the Brits go: "The Frenchies have gone mad."
In case you're wondering what the Germans are doing: they're the new cheese-eating surrender monkeys. They've run away before they even entered got a whiff of gunpowder. The Germans are sensible enough to understand they've lost the fervor that makes good warriors, and are busy dismantling their military, planning to bring it down to 160,000 or thereabouts. We say: complete waste of time, good buddies. Bring it down to 25,000 and save your money.
What if the loyalists win? If they do, Gaddaffi is still finished. His money is frozen, $100-billion, no one in his government can travel, and should he try and export oil he will be stymied because his coast will be under a naval blockade. He is likely shortly to be declared a war criminal. He can go back to the desert and do something unpleasant with the camels, but whatever happens, he isn't going to be King of Kings. we don't think countries on his southern border like Chad and Mali can help him much. They're too beholden to the west for one thing, and they have zero staying power if the west sanctions them for helping Gaddaffi.

0230 GMT March 10, 2011

Back to the mid-terms - apologies

OK, so at least the Brits have the guts to call a spade a spade British SF team in Afghanistan seized a shipment of 48 rockets on its way to the Taliban from Iran. The rockets are of longer range than anything the Taliban has so far. The British have made the news public and denounced the Iranians. The Americans on the other hand go all small-mouth when it comes to the subject of Iranian support of the Taliban. Small-mouth is a disease we made up which covers the inside of a person's mouth with an impervious membrane, so that the person cannot talk.
Libya As of yesterday Zawiya west of Tripoli was back in communication with the outside and the rebels said they were still holding out in the city center. Loss of communication earlier led to speculation that the city had fallen to the loyalists. Loyalist bombed the refinery and oil pipeline at Ras Lanuf where fighting still continue.
We have to be frank with our readers, folks. Unless the west is dissimulating while preparing a blow against Gaddaffi, it looks less and less likely there will be any overt action against the King of Kings. NATO, EU, US have gone completely limp noodle on the subject.
For some days now AWACS coverage off Libya's coast has been extended to 24-hours/day as opposed to 10-hours/day previously. So no one was taking the Libya matter particularly seriously.
Some covert weapons supply will doubtless take place and an arms embargo on the Government may be imposed followed up by a naval blockade. While the rebels for sure need weapons and munitions, if they have to be trained and equipment, this is going to take time.
Pakistan commander admits drones are mostly killing militants Reader VA sends us a link to a Pakistan article http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/09/most-of-those-killed-in-drone-attacks-were-terrorists-military.html in which the commanding general of Pakistan 7 Division admits that the US drone strikes are killing mostly militants, including many foreigners.
Russia modernizing air defenses After two decades of running down its air defenses for lack of money, Russia is rebuilding its capabilities. Russia has more than doubled the initial planned procurement of the S-400 Triumf, and will now purchase 56 battalions by 2020 (8 launchers each with 4 missiles) instead of 23 by 2015 The second regiment is now deploying (two battalions) around Moscow, joining the first regiment in the same area. The -400 will replace the -300MPU and -300V, but several units will be equipped with a -300V4 system - details not available. The -400 tubes can each take a single long-range missile or four 9M96 missiles.
By 2020 the first 10 -500 systems will be in place, for use against long-range ballistic missiles.
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story.jsp?id=news/awst/2011/03/07/AW_03_07_2011_p32-293478.xml&headline=Russian%20Long-Range%20Air%20Defense%20Efforts%20Bloom&channel=defense
Meanwhile, comments on US SAM modernization/replacement are best avoided. US has decided to stop funding MEADS, right after reaching the prototype phase, thus eliminating a Patriot/Hawk replacement and gutting an essential component of the integrated layered anti-missile system.
http://www.meads-amd.com/MediumExtendedAirDefenseSystemContinuedFundingNeeded.pdf

0230 GMT March 9, 2011

Libya Lots of weird happenings reported. US has been talking to loyalist officials with whom it has a relationship. Officials claiming they are from Col. Gaddaffi meet with rebels and say he is prepared to go if assured safe passage, no retaliation, and access to his money. The rebels say "over our dead body" and so on. Gaddaffi's people scoff at the report. Rebels also scoff at it, saying its an attempt to divide them. US says as far it's concerned there can be no immunity from prosecution.
Zawiya, west of Tripoli, may have finally fallen to loyalists. The latest attack, yesterday, was launched with 50 tanks. While the US Marines, who make a point of going in armor-light, may insist that hunting tanks is fun and profitable, there's a difference in hunting tanks with TOWs and Javelins, with anti-tank helicopters above you and fighter aircraft on top of the helicopters and artillery behind you. Hunting tanks with RPG-7s when you are a bunch of civilians is neither fun nor profitable.

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12673956

We mentioned yesterday the rebel drive from Benghazi to Sirte, Col. G's birthplace, was ambushed at Bin Jawad. That town is likely in loyalist hands. Fighting still continues in and around Ras Launf, which is a big oil terminal.
President Obama mumbles something about considering a no-fly-zone. Brits are leaping around like a pack of beagles on the trail of a fox, and are now considering putting a proposal before the UN that all Libyan oil export earnings should go into an escrow fund for the Libyan people.
Before anyone gets excited about that, the last time this scam was pulled was against Saddam Hussein, the oil-for-food thing. US-UK rigged it so that the UN had no audit capacity, ripped off people left, right, and center, and then blamed the UN for lax controls and wrongdoing. (Yes, UN officials did join US-UK in dirty dealing.) So if you want to see a version 2 of the scam played out, back this British idea. If you aren't going to get paid off for backing it, have nothing to do with it because there is no evidence the countries that will go for this have the Libyan people anywhere in mind.
Turns out Libya has $70-billion in money and investments in the EU, plus the $30-billion in the US. Its all frozen.
By the way, we keep reading in the blogs that Libya at least had great social welfare. Wrong. If you were not a Gaddaffi tribe, you got little if anything. Someone told us 1/3rd of Libya lives on less than $4-day/capita. And in any case, saying well they had great social welfare is pure, unadulterated, naked racism. Would anyone in the west accept a dictatorship where just to say in public "our leader is a fink" gets you taken away and locked up and not seen for extended periods of time if ever, just because your dictatorship is giving you great social welfare? Just as westerners want freedom, so do Arabs. Is that so very difficult a concept to understand?
US hanging tough on Our Man In Lahore says India Times. US is saying that once OMIL is released, it can be business as usual. Till then, it cannot be business as usual. Whatever all this rubbish means.
Speaking of India Times, Remember we'd complained about the attention the newspaper was giving someone called Katrina who said someone named Bebo liked her in a bikini? Well, this mysterious K person is back in the Indian Times headlines. "Katrina-Gulshan kiss is back!" breathlessly informs India Times. Very odd. A kiss that wanders off by itself and disappears, and then returns? India is the land of the strange and mysterious, but this is a bit too strange and mysterious.
Not to take offense, India readers of Orbat.com. In America there is someone called the Kardashian Sisters, who we thought were the kids of a big car dealer. Apparently their sole claim to fame is exposing themselves and getting paid to tout useless goods on Twitter. Admittedly the New York Times does not feature them in its headlines, though. They are supposed to be great beauties. When you take a look at their pictures, you'll be surprised to find this is true. You will also be surprised to find that two Mack trucks that have collided at a closing speed of 120-miles an hour are even more beautiful.
Grouch. Complain. Sneer. That's what happens when one gets old.
Back to the mid-term exams.

0230 GMT March 8, 2011

Sorry - again short update, Editor has two mid-terms to turn in by Thursday. Lost 2 hours in dentist visit.

Libya The Old Badger still has fight left in him. His forces have ding-donged into Zawiyah, west of Tripoli, but this time have forced the rebels into the center city, blocking all exits. Loyalists also stopped a rebel push on Sirte, in the east, birthplace of the King of Kings. At least one other town which was under rebel control may no longer be so. Casualties by any standard are light for both sides: 50-60 killed each day, but most of the rebels are untrained civilians, so we may assume losses though running in their favor affect them more. On the other hand there's the old 20-day rule: it takes a combatant 20-days of fighting to reach effectiveness (on the reasonable theory that by then the incompetents have been killed).
The rebels are calling for a no-fly zone. We've said earlier this will not resolve their issues. They are - quite reasonably - terrified of the occasional and erratic LAF attacks, but these have being doing almost no damage. The rebels need organization, training, heavier weapons, ammunition, and medical supplies.
So even as President Obama says he's getting more serious about a no-fly zone, it won't help. Psychologically, yes, it will be a big blow to Big Gaffy. But we think by now he's shown he's not easily spooked.
Meanwhile, NATO yesterday issued a completely useless statement, saying any intervention would have to be approved by the UN Security Council. NATO is quite aware Russia and China will veto any intervention, so this is just NATO's way of say No Way Jose and so on and so forth.
Does this mean that the rebellion is over? Not really. If the west lets Big G. win, it will have lost all credibility. Every tin pot dictator will take heart, not least the gold-plated tin pot ones in China.
So: the West will have to intervene, like it or not. Mad Dog Gaffy will bite the dust. But from here to there will be messy. And after the Gaff heads for wherever dictators head, there will be another big mess as the Libyan tribes fight for power.
By the way, Old Gaff will not have to die to enjoy the company of 77 virgins in Paradise. Allegedly he is protected by an inner guard of 200 virgins.
You may be asking when most of the army has rebelled against Gaddaffi, why are the rebels not making greater progress? Turns out the the good Colonel has been aware for decades the Army may depose him - after all, he was a 28-year colonel when he got rid of King Idris. So he has starved the Army of resources including equipment and training. This point was made in the first few days of the rebellion, we don't know whom. We put off bringing it up because at that stage the loyalists were taking a severe beating and it did seem the thing would be over in a few days.
So, TTFN (Ta Ta For Now) and its back to questions like: "Organizations sometimes place too much emphasis on the cost of training and not enough on first defining what the employees should learn in relation to desired job behaviors." True or False?
Doubtless you're going "Oi Vey, everyone knows the answer to that." True. So does the Editor. But being dyslexic, to be absolutely sure he has the right answer he has to track down the exact point in the text-book and put the page number so he has a reference when he double checks.

0230 GMT March 7, 2011

Sorry - short update, Editor has two mid-terms to turn in by Thursday

Well this is embarrassing When Firefox crashes, as it does all the time, you often get a message saying "well this is embarrassing" when it fails to recover the webpages you were using. This message is so annoying that you want to find the head of Firefox and smack him with a limp noodle in front of his assembled staff.
So yesterday Libyan rebels captured - and later let go - a British Special Air Service team of seven soldiers accompanying an MI6 officer and a diplomat. The eight arrived outside Benghazi by helicopter without bothering to let the rebels know they were coming and who was in the group. The rebels thought they had happened on covert British attempts to aid Gaddaffi, whereas the Brits had come to aid the rebels.
Worse, the Libyan government managed to intercept, record, and broadcast messages between the UK Government and rebels, where the UK pleaded for the release of the soldiers. Among other explanations given to the rebels for the presence of the soldiers was they were scouting for hotels where aid-providers could stay.
So everyone is unhappy: the rebels because of the way the Brits arrived, the loyalists because this confirms Gaddaffi's thesis that Western powers are behind the unrest, the Brits because they've been caught with their knickers down. True that Gaddaffi has also said Al Qaeda is behind the unrest, drugged teenagers are behind the unrest, the kitchen sink is behind the unrest, but when you get an incident like this, whichever narrative conforms to the incident gets pushed forward.
All Editor could say when he heard the news is "well this is embarrassing". We know the SAS is all for the "Who Dares Wins" thing, and we know it considers its larger cousins (larger in every way) the US special forces to be lumbering, slow, and unimaginative. But you'd think someone would have figured out that perhaps the arrival of a bunch of heavily armed westerners out of nowhere would have caused problems.
Passports and all that Readers will recall that when the Israelis killed the Palestine arms dealer in the Middle East they were using passports stolen from, among others, British nationals. The Brits got all prune-faced with outrage. well, turns out the team had passports of four nationalities with them.
Et tu, Leo? Or as the Americans so inelegantly but graphically put it, what goes around, comes around.
Readers will remember our update yesterday about lots foreigners running around in Libya. Please attribute it to our military and intelligence sources, Debka style. To be perfectly honest, our sources were neither military or intelligence. Why do people assume those are the only kinds of sources?
Charlie Sheen, Gaddaffi, and Hugo reader Luxembourg has been pushing the idea of a TV show with Mr. Sheen, Col. Gaddaffi, and President Hugo. We've been skeptical on the grounds no one can possibly be that crazy to put the three together.
Wrong. Reader Luxembourg writes in - with justified outrage that his idea was stolen - about a Saturday Night Live skit featuring just that. So our apologies to Mr. Luxembourg, and in case he wants to sue, we do have his emails making the suggestion going way back.
Second X-37 in orbit and as usual, no details on what it is supposed to be doing. The craft has a 270-day endurance and is about 1/3rd the size of the Space Shuttle. It is launched by an Atlas V rocket. The first vehicle did 225 days in orbit before returning. The concept is for a cheap, long-endurance, and rapid-turnaround orbiter.
Everyone has their theory, a popular one is that the X-37 is designed to grab and return other people's satellites, or to shoot them down. It could be used to refuel satellites.

0230 GMT March 6, 2011

Somalia While global attention has been focused on North Africa, African Union forces have succeeded in taking over large areas of Mogadishu from Al-Shabab. The AU casualty toll is said to be high, with 50 peacekeepers killed, mainly from Burundi. The question being asked is if the Burundi Government will tolerate these losses. We see no reason it will not. Not every country functions with the very low tolerance for casualties exhibited by the west.
Ivory Coast Just a reminder: while everyone enthusiastically watches the liberation struggles in the Arab world, there's unfinished business in the Ivory Coast. The president rigged the election and was deemed the loser by independent observers; he refuses to give up power and the West Africans, who took the lead in resolving this issue, cant agree on the use of force to throw him out. It always comes back to the same thing: today I help oust a tyrant, tomorrow I may need to become a tyrant and I don't want to set precedents for people to oust me.
Libya Loyalists forced their way into the center of Zawiyah, west of Tripoli, but then the rebels counterattacked and pushed them back to the outskirts. Another attack is expected soon. While the rebels are holding on to gains, and have captured another port (Ras Lanouf) in their attempt to secure an uninterrupted line of communication from the Egypt border to Tripoli, there are concerns they are running out of ammunition and they are not as militarily effective as the loyalists. as nearly as we can tell, effective loyalist forces are only in the west: in the east they have not put up much of a fight. Colonel Gaddaffi's current plan is to create a strategic region around Tripoli, and from there mount a counteroffensive against the East.
An ammunition dump in the Benghazi area blew up, depriving rebels of munitions. Cause unknown. Also unknown is the cause of a LAF fighter crash which killed the pilot.
Meanwhile, British media reports that yesterday the 3rd Battalion, Royal Regiment of Scotland, had been out on 24-hour alert for deployment to the Mediterranean. (RRS is the successor to the Scottish regiments amalgamated into a single regiment in the last set of reforms/reduction. The way the British are going, soon they'll be left with new a Royal Regiment of the United Kingdom with two battalions, and with rifle sections representing former famous regiments.)
Also meanwhile, there seem to be a powerful lot of foreigners running or sneaking around in Libya on aid missions, observation, media, etc.
A question Why is it okay to have an oil cartel and not a wheat/corn/soyabeans cartel? Should US/Canada be indexing the price of food grains to oil? You could argue that well, people don't eat oil, they eat food grains, so raising the prices is taking food away from people. But without oil you cant have modern agriculture or industry or anything, so in its own way oil is just as basic as food.
India ABM program India should today be staging its sixth test of an interceptor missile against a tactical ballistic missile. of the previous five, one failed.
Mandeep Singh Bajwa believes the Indian Army will operate the ABM system and that an IOC of late 2013 is planned.
Naturally that means that a partially tested system will be operationalized. But there's nothing wrong with that. That's the way the US used to work - look at the history of the Nike-Ajax, Nike-Hercules, and Nike-Zeus systems, for example. You deployed ASAP because something was better than nothing, and you kept testing away and upgrading as you went along. You also didn't have smarty-half-pants academics declaring to the world that a system was no good because it could be countered and because it wouldn't meet the threat 20-years down the road. Of course everything can be countered. On that basis no one should deploy any weapon. And you don't design for future, hypothetical threats. You design for current ones, and for future threats you work on future systems. You also don't use the Swiss Army Knife method of weapons design, where a weapon has to perform 24 functions brilliantly, so that you end up with just a few weapons at astronomical prices - B-2, for example.
If US had deployed 150 B-2s instead of 20, does anyone thing we'd be sitting around bemoaning how hard it is to take down the Libyan Air Force?

0230 GMT March 5, 2011

Libya and interventionism

Given how completely fed up Americans are with foreign interventions, and given America's decade-old record of incompetent interventions, one would think that the country would be grateful that the Administration is taking its time thinking things through re. Libya. But no. Everyone's a critic, of a sudden. And needless to say, should US intervene and things go wrong, everyone will also be a critic.
Like any normal person, Editor loves the smell of napalm in the morning. As long as someone else is being bombed and Editor is sitting comfortably at home with his four teddy bears and four soft pillows. There is something stirring, perhaps even atavistic, in watching videos of aircraft blowing up things. When the things are bad buys, it becomes even more satisfying, because there is nothing in the world that equals the high of killing when God is on our side.
So: Editor would love it if the US would simply go in and wipe out the Libyan Air Force, in the nice, neat, antiseptic way that Americans fight from the air. (Antiseptic for us, of course, it's a bit more messy for those on the receiving end.) Agreed it is intensely aggravating to watch the King of Kings (everyone in a loony bin thinks he is a king) killing and intimidating those of his people who simply want freedom, which is a basic human right in the eyes of God as well as the United Nations and the US Constitution. It's highly aggravating that now hundreds of Tureg mercenaries from Mali have been flown in to reinforce the good Colonel: we are supposing his Chad, Algeria and other mercenaries are not delivering the goods.
But let's ask ourselves: so US stops air movement over Libya. What then? It certainly doesn't stop the arrival of mercenaries, because they can drive overland at 200-300 kilometers/day. It doesn't help the outgunned and disorganized rebels. To really defeat the good Colonel would require air strikes against anything that moves, and advisors and ordnance. It likely will also require specialized units such as the special forces.
The complications multiply. Once again the US is bombing and killing Muslims. Once again it has "invaded" an oil rich country. Last time US did that was in Iraq, and the conservative (oh, let's call a spade a shovel: the despotic) regimes of the Arab world were all for it,. But right now the despots are not at all for it because its going to be their turn next. Sure, as far as Editor is concerned, take out the despots next and for heaven's sake, for once put America ahead of the curve of revolution, instead of badly lagging behind it.
But while Editor is always for the use of force as a first option, let's look at it from the point of the US. Many things can go wrong in a Libyan intervention. Then the same people who insist we should attack will be piling on to the Administration for its recklessness. We face the gravest economic - and social - crises at home. Do we need another intervention.
One thing Editor likes about Ron Paul is that while the gentleman is against the welfare state, he is also against the warfare state. For seven uninterrupted decades America has been a warfare state. Endless War is the motto. Please, to be clear: Editor is all for the warfare state, his gripe is we declare war on the weakest states, and kiss the butts of stronger states. After all, if the people of Libya deserve to be free, don't the people of China?
The problem is we are broke. Business Week tells us that America is $44-trillion dollars in debt: federal, state, local. Perfectly sober people tell us we are in worse shape than Greece, and Greece at least has Germany to bale it out, whereas we have no one. The country refuses to raise taxes. Then there is no option except to end the warfare state along with big government and the welfare state. If we are being told we cannot afford to subsidize - say - health insurance for children, then it follows we cannot afford to subsidize freedom for Libya. Ron Paul at least recognizes that and whatever one may think of his economic theories, you have to give him credit for that.
So you see, the issue is not just Libya. It is the wider issue of what is America's role in the world at a time we are limping along to the edge of the cliff off which we will throw ourselves. After World War II, America had something over 40% of the world's GDP. The rest of the industrialized world was in ruins. For all that people criticize the many American compromises made to fight the Soviet Union, America faced an existential threat from that country. We were justifying in making any compromise against the USSR, just as we were prepared to make any compromise to fight Japan and Germany. (Strange no one criticizes America for allying with a man who had just killed 20-million of his own people.) We were right to say no sacrifice was too small for securing our freedom.
Those days, however, are long gone. America is politically, financially, socially, and spiritually sick. It needs to heal itself, not undertake more adventures, no matter how worthy.
Just saying "No" to a Libyan intervention would be a good start.

Thank you, China

We are thrilled and delighted that China's latest defense budget is about to breach the $100-billion mark. We are not one of those who insists that China declares only a part of its defense spending. If you cost China's spending in Indian rupees instead of US dollars, you will see its unlikely that China hides any more than - say - the US, or India for that matter. after all, China has the draft and its per capita income is 1/8th of the US's. It can afford a lot of defense on less money than can the US.
China for some time has been the second largest defense spender in the world. The advantage of that $100-billion figure is that it will get the media's attention. And we know in this world of quantum mechanics, unless the media says something exists it doesn't exist. Also, the $100-billion starts closing up on what all three of China's big neighbors spend - Russia, Japan, and India. That will also be an attention getter.
As China's defense spending increases and the US's hopefully walls, the US will be less and less at the head of the league of militarists, where people can say America spends more on defense than the rest of the world put together. Accepted Chinese defense spending would have to increase to much higher levels before that becomes true, but at least we're making progress.
More to the point, we wonder if Japan and India will be finally moved to take their defense more seriously. Japan spends less than 1% of GDP on defense. India this year will spend an official $35-billion, a third of China, and of course 2/3rds of India's spending is oriented toward Pakistan (we speak in approximations).
It was fine for Japan to ride free under the US wing when US was rich and in any case didn't want Japan reemerging as an independent military power. But now Japan should really pick up more of the price tag. if Japan added more fighter wings, more divisions (or at least boosted its divisions from the real strength of reinforced brigades), aircraft carriers and nuclear power submarines, it could take the responsibility for defense of the Western Pacific and permit the US to withdraw to Hawaii with significant cost savings. Yes, we have heard all the reasons why Japan doesn't want to do these things, but that story is getting a bit old now and its time for the US to tell Japan so.
As for India, well, Indians are a happy-go-lucky people. As long as they can have a satisfying bowel movement in the morning, can eat modestly, and have a modest place to sleep at night, they have no worries about tomorrow. It's nice in a way. But really, it's time India started getting serious about China. Yes, it has started. But that's after 40 years of ignoring the rise of China. So saying "my goal is to run a six-minute mile" and then getting up from your easy chair and walking to fall flat on your face before the hundred-yard mark is not really starting.
India has hitched its security star to the US wagon. Unfortunate, because the US wagon is losing its wheels. India really should think of doing what it needs to do to protect itself against China - and to assist regional countries like Vietnam.
India being India will likely greet the Chinese defense budget with a yawn. some will rant, but the majority will be more concerned with first page India Times headlines like "Katrina says Bebo likes me in a bikini". We have no idea who this is this bountifully-shaped Katrina, nor do we have the least clue about Bebo. Is Bebo even a man? Can't tell from the name. Could be Katrina's pet mutt with a name like that.
Unless India changes it ways, the next time China comes battering at India's gates, India will have to imperiously signal them to stop, and announce: "Katrina says Bebo likes me in a bikini." Hopefully the PLA will halt and drool over Katrina-in-bikini and Bebo. But shouldn't India have a back-up plan in case the PLA says: "We're gonna kick your sorry butts and then make Katrina and Bebo POWs to take home to the mainland"?

0230 GMT March 4, 2011

A very strange statement by the US SecDef He has said, in effect, that "one aircraft carrier does not a no-fly zone make."
Profound. Deep. Layers of sophisticated thought. And anyone could have figured it out. But we thought - mistakenly it would appear - that the US has nine other aircraft carries, 20 fighters wings active and reserve, each larger than the effective size of most of the world's air forces, to say nothing of 4 Marine aviation wings. True, some are engaged in Iraq/Afghanistan, and some are engaged in preparing rotations to and from the combat zone. But is SecDef saying the $1-trillion we spend on defense (everything including the kitchen sink, not just the official defense budget) can give us only one aircraft carrier off Libya? In which case he has one recourse: resign.
Now please don't mistake us There may be excellent reasons for the US to avoid getting involved in a no-fly zone. The Secretary of State has given very sensible reasons, among them to let the Libyans sort out their revolution themselves. We can discuss the pros and cons because the SecState has quietly given us the cons.
So if SecDef wants to warn against engaging in fresh adventures in the Arab world, he has every right to do so. He is an intelligent man, and we will listen carefully.
But to weep and wail about how difficult it all is, and whine about potential aircraft losses - please stop now. In the last ten years the US has lost far fewer aircraft in combat than it has in peacetime accidents. Flying high performance aircraft is dangerous at the best of times, peace or war. And the purpose of that training is to prepare for war. To suggest LAF air defense pose a threat to the US after having been worked over by the heavy bombers, stealth fighters, and cruise missiles is to make la-la land statements. That is Colonel Gaddaffi's job, not that of the US SecDef. The US can initiate air and naval action on a significant scale anywhere in the world within 24 hours. And there is every likelihood the simple announcement of a no-fly zone will ground the LAF - no one is his right mind can be unaware of what the US did to the Iraqi Air Force - twice.
The largest chunk of US discretionary spending goes to defense and related functions. For the top US defense official to suggest that imposing a no-fly zone is so difficult we shouldn't even consider it: sir, it's just sad. Plain sad.
Or perhaps SecDefis worried Congress and the media will beat him up if he loses a couple of aircraft over Libya. Perhaps he is saying he cannot guarantee a 100% risk-free operation. Perhaps he is trying to say he is not going to be the fall guy if things go wrong.
Fair enough. He has a right to look out for himself, given the complete refusal of the government and Congress to take any responsibility for anything, and the media's infinite ability to go off without a single fact (recent Rolling Stone story being case in point).
But then let him say this outright instead of whining about how hard it all is.
Utah plan for alternate currency advances Utah's plan to permit the use of US gold and silver coins as legal tender has cleared one legislative hurdle, says reader Richard Thatcher, and will now go to the Utah house for a vote. Foxnews says 11 other states are considering similar measures. The idea is not so much a return to the gold standard as an alternative to the US dollar. Interesting.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/03/03/utah-considers-return-gold-silver-coins/
Editor would sure like buy gold coins. Wonder if someone will accept his horde of Zambian dollars at official exchange rates.
Stories of the weird Indeed, stories of the so, so, so very weird you'd better read this yourself. Only in America. Oh yes, keep the kids off the link. There are no fotos, but you'll see what we mean.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/US-university-to-investigate-sex-toy-demonstration-by-professor/articleshow/7623721.cms
We read this in the Times of India. This will help convince at least 10-million more Indians that the Americans are not to be taken seriously. And we did complain about that trend globally, in yesterday's update.

0230 GMT March 3, 2011

Libyan Air Force again shows its incompetence, bomb misses CNN crew. http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/03/02/libya.conflict/index.html?hpt=T2# Sheesh. Can't the LAF get anything right?
AQ, Taliban kill another high-ranking government person for "blasphemy" Earlier it was the Governor of Punjab province, who opposed the very tough blasphemy laws on record. This time it's the minister for minorities. (We are aware that the Pakistanis so far have not said that AQ/Taliban were behind the Punjab governor's killing. Nonetheless, no one in his 16-man security detail accompanying him lifted a finger when a bodyguard shot him several times. This suggests there was, at least, a widely known plan to kill him, and AQ/Taliban would be the main suspects.)
After the Punjab governor's death, the minorities minister said he would not use government bodyguards as he couldn't trust them. Without the slightest trace of irony, Pakistan security officials that the minister's death was not a security failure, presumably because they were not providing security so they couldn't have failed. No answer to the obvious question of WHY the man didn't want government bodyguards: he feared them more than he feared the enemy. Is that not a security failure anywhere except in the land of Alice's Red Queen?
"Those who committed this crime should be brought to justice, said President Barack Obama." From www.dawn.com May 3, 2011.
Editor's response: Please. Shoot. Me. Now.
Our Man In Lahore Relatives of the 2008 Bombay terror attack brought suit in Brooklyn against various people including the head of Pakistan ISI. US was about to file an intervention saying the gentleman had sovereign immunity. Now, says Times of India http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/Mumbai-attack-US-links-cover-for-ISI-chief-to-Davis-case/articleshow/7608088.cms US has told Pakistan if head of ISI is to have sovereign immunity, so must Our Man In Lahore.
If Mike Huckabee is typical of GP Prez 2012 candidates, Mr. Obama has already won Mr. Huckabee, we are told by UK Telegraph, says Mr. Obama's world view was shaped by his having grown up in Kenya. Mr. Obama did not visit Kenya till he was 20. Mr. Huckabee says it was a great insult to Britain when Mr. Obama returned a bust of Winston Churchill. The bust was loaned by Tony Blair to Bush II and was returned as intended. Mr. Obama replaced the loan with a bust of Abe Lincoln.
Mr. Huckabee says that Mr. Obama's world views differ from those of the average American. We sincerely hope that the good former governor is not holding himself out as an example of the average American. As it is the world laughs at Americans as being ignorant and prejudices. Do we really need Mr. Huckabee to confirm their prejudices?
At the rate Mr. Huckabee is going, the next time Editor has to defend America in an argument with a Euro, is he going to have resort to witticisms such as "Yo' mama so fat, when she travel she put the jumbo in the jumbo jet"? Editor is a guest in the US, it is his duty to defend America. But please, he needs something at least on which to base his defense.
Or was Mr. Huckabee "just saying"?

0230 GMT March 2, 2011

Breaking 1100 GMT al Jazzera says loyalists have retaken Gharyan and Sabratha to the west of Triploi, while rebels prepare to repel an attack on Zawiyah, also in the west. They have repulsed one offensive by loyalists to retake the town, earlier this week. Rebels say the oil city of Berga remains in thier hands after the beat off an attack.
Libya USS Barry (DDG 52) has entered the eastern Mediterranean; USS Kearsarge (LHD 3) and USS Ponce (LPD 15) should enter the Med late today.
Gaddaffi loyalists are reported to have retaken at least one road crossing east of Tripoli, but otherwise rebel forces have held their own.
US Secretary of State sees no reason Colonel Gaddaffi and President Mugabe cannot exchange hugs and kisses and live happily together. This is a good move, giving the saner member of Gaddaffi's inner circle a way out of the current "last bullet, last man" situation. Two problems: are there ANY sane members of Gaddaffi's inner circle; and will the Libyan people agree to this?
Meanwhile, Libyans tell the west that aside from a no-fly zone, they want to sort out Col. G by themselves, thank you very much.
News of the odd "After floodwaters receded from her home, a Brazilian woman was shocked to find a most unwelcome house guest: a 5-foot (1.5-meter) alligator lying tamely in the living room as her 3-year-old son petted the reptile's head."
Editor has long had a theory that animals respond to the "vibes" humans emit. The 3-year old obviously had no reason to fear the alli, and probably approached it with the same affection as he would approach a dog. The guessing is the alli was not hungry, but that doesn't answer the question of why it was just laying about submitting to being petted.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/8344408/Alligator-found-behind-a-sofa-in-Brazil.html
Can someone get serious about China, please? The Japanese are moving 12 F-15s from Japan to reinforce Okinawa against China. To pay for this and other moves to boost their southern defenses, they are reducing tanks and artillery intended to repel an armor heavy invasion from the Soviet Union.
Far be it for us to criticize the Giant Brains who run, because from what we've seen you can't get lower than the Giant brains who run the US, with India a close second. But think about this a moment.
Which country is moving toward building a serious amphibious capability? Hint: the name has five letters, starting with a C and ending with an A. Since we're talking to Japanese Giant brains, in case they cant figure it out, the middle letters are H, I, and N. So what recisely is the point of running down your mechanized capability?
Next, we assume the Japanese Giant brains are so mightily impressed with themselves that they think 12 F-15s will send some kind of signal to the Chinese, who - anyone can guess - seem to want at least a thousand first-class combat aircraft by 2020.
So what is the message the Japanese are sending? Simple. It's "We are so pathetic please stomp all over us."
We don't doubt the Chinese will get that message very soon.
Speaking of India Washington Post says according to Indian estimates, of the $32-billion in subsidies and assistance to the poor, just 27% gets to the poor. The rest is swallowed by corruption.
So doubtless the Indian Government is looking at the Arab revolutions and thinking "we're a democracy, we don't need to concern ourselves with all that nonsense.
Actually, Government of India had better start concerning itself with all that nonsense. Just because we've had two generations of post Independence Indians who are happy to see business as normal, doesn't mean this situation is going to continue. From what we hear, there are acute rumblings among better off Indians that its time India saw a revolution of governance.
And as those who run India should know, its actually quite easy to keep down the poor. But its very hard to keep down educated middle and upper-middle class people who from nothing more than idealism want a revolution.
Government of India: you've been warned. Act now, or before you know it you'll be occupying space in History's Dustbin.
From Richard Thatcher on the consequences of a US default Your point that a US default would leave the main land Chinese Communists holding bags of worthless fancy looking paper is correct but it would leave the Japanese holding close to a similar amount of identical, worthless, fancy looking paper, plus the debt the Europeans hold. The impact could lead to a crisis of global proportions as well as a collapse of global demand.
In the US the Dollar will deflate like a full balloon with its valve completely opened (Though there is likely to be an amount of hyperinflation as the Fed prints gobs of Greenbacks to try to keep the economy going, something doomed to failure but I doubt that knowledge will stop them from doing it anyway). Just how far that deflation will go is anyone's guess (I'm curious as to how you came up with the 1/4 of current value figure)Inflation from 1900 to 2000 was 25.24 (ie. a one dollar bag of goods bought in 1900 cost $25.24 in 2000, and over sixty percent of that happened from 1980 to 2000) so your 75 percent loss would put said Buck back to the "value" it had in the mid to late 1930s. I guess how low it can go depends on how shaken the public's faith (amazing how the presumed "value" in any currency resembles the faith seen in the religious) in the Dollar and how soon the Fed, Congress, whomever, gets around to getting back to the gold (and silver?) standard for back the Dollar. Personally, short of a total collapse, I do not see the Dollar disappearing, it will continue to be used both out of habit and because there is not enough gold and silver in circulation to truly displace the Buck.
Thing is that this Crash will likely make the 1929 crash look like a feather drifting down onto a pillow. There wasn't much of an escalation of crime during the 30s but the people were had a different upbringing then. Today too many people have a sense of entitlement, that someone (everyone) owes them something. My guess is that within a few weeks, at the most, of the serious collapse that there will be quite a number of serious, destructive, riots in many cities. The official (real?) unemployment rate during most of the 1930s was about 25 percent. I see that rate being even higher this next time, more people not working leads to more people being able to join protests and riots.
Likely entitlement programs will have to be eliminated and even Social Security will have to default. Severe reductions in the US Government will become inevitable. Commodity prices will, of course crash as demand falls.
When the US default occurs pretty much everyone will blame the US, they will be, largely, right in doing so. In turn, most of the US population will blame the politicians, as well as bureaucrats, lawyers, unions, etc., and they will be correct in doing so as well. But these US folks doing that "blaming" need to point out one other guilty party...and that is themselves (by the way, I include myself in that "guilty party").
Editor's comment when Argentina defaulted in 1999, its currency fell from 1 peso to the US dollar to 4 pesos to the US dollar as very high inflation hit. Unemployment reached 25%. But three years later Argentina's GDP has started to grow again. we mentioned commodities because as the price falls, it will reduce the impact on the American people. So say - arbitrarily - that 5% of your budget goes for gasoline, when gasoline falls below $1 a gallon you can lose 4% of your income and still buy the same amount.
Mr. Thatcher's point about domestic instability is valid, and we'll have to weather it. Yes, Government will have to be seriously reduced because tax revenues will fall, and US will be unable to finance its deficit. So instead of a $3.6-trillion annual budget the Government might well slip to $1.5-trillion - we can argue/play-around with the figures. We've assumed the normal taxes of $2-trillion will fall by 25% as income dives, leaving $1.5-trillion.
We are sure real economists are labeling our ideas as way to the left of the lunatic fringe, but if you start with the reasonable proposition that the American people will agree neither to a cut in government nor to an increase in taxes, debt default is inevitable. To bring government spending in line with existing taxes, $1.5-trillion has to be cut and there is no way that is going to happen. Alternatively all loopholes will have to be closed ($1-trillion) and taxes raised by another $500-billion on top of that, and there's no way that is going to happen either.
Editor's suggestion is we need to all start learning the Banana Boat song because that's what we're going to be taking soon, with the added problem of a large hole in the bottom of the boat.

0230 GMT March 1, 2011

Breaking New York Times says rebels repulse loyalist attack on Zwiyah and pretty easily too. It wasn't much of an attack as nearly as we gather: less than a hundred loyalists of whom ten were killed and 12 captured.
In the east a Libyan plane attacked an ammunition depot and loyalist forces retook a refinery.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/01/world/africa/01unrest.html?_r=1&hp
UK prepared to use force in Libya if Colonel G uses mustard gas says the UK Telegraph. We do not know where this has come from. Looks like a sideways excuse to use force: "our intel sources indicate he is about to use mustard gas". Now, people, we have been down this road before with Saddam and WMDs. All we can say is if force is used, this time its in a good cause.
Further, UK, US, France are discussing a no-fly zone. Its unclear to us that if a UN mandate is requested China and Russia will refrain from veto.
Telegraph says US is repositioning military assets.
The same report says US/UK are considering arming Libyan rebels.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8353559/Libya-West-ready-to-use-force-against-Col-Gaddafi-amid-chemical-weapon-fears.html
US freezes $30-billion Libyan assets At last the US has done something, even though the freeze will have no impact on the vexed question of getting Colonel G. to resign. He says he can't resign because he holds no position. He says the Libyan people love him. He further says there has been no violence in Tripoli. We are not making this up: he really said these things to the BBC in Tripoli.
If Britain gets a hold of the entire $30-billion it thinks Libya has in the UK, at least the two freezes put together will give the new Libya sound start.
Meanwhile, in the western city of Zwiyah, rebels says 2000 Gaddaffi loyalists are massing to try and take the city back, but that they (the rebels) will fight it out.
Debka says US, French, UK military advisors in Eastern Libya There's nothing intrinsically impossible with this report, particularly if instead of advisors they are intelligence and civic action people. The former would be there to gather evidence of Gaddaffi's crimes and assess the situation, the later would be there to prepare the way for humanitarian aid, particularly for refugees who till lately were working in Libya. You can also envisage special action people to prevent Gaddaffi from blowing his oil well, though he has basically lost the south too.
But here's what spoil's Debka's credibility for us. A related article says the US is looking at the option of hit-and-run raids on Gaddaffi's air force to disable it. Why on earth would the US of all people consider "hit-and-run" raids? Why does the USS Enterprise, allegedly heading for the Mediterranean, have to run after launching strikes? What damage can the Libyan Air Force possible to do to the Big E? The LAF wont be able to find the Big E to begin with, and won't have the range to go near it even if it is found.
Moreover, US if it makes a counterforce strike against the LAF, will not be sending two dozen AF-18s to do the job. It will hit Libya with everything from cruise missiles, to land-based aircraft in the Mediterranean, to the heavy bombers.
Now, it is not neccessary to assume that because Debka is being flaky on this "hit-and-run" business it is incorrect on a small numbers of westerners arriving in the East. But you can see that because of the "hit-and-run" thing, anyone would be wary of accepting anything Debka says - even if it turns out to be true.
http://debka.com/article/20708/
From David J. Barta: On the best heading for finance careers The Financial sector had relatively low incomes levels Post Depression and has had a tremendous leap upward over the past two decades. There has been a trend in recent years to use those with backgrounds in the hard sciences such as Physics, Mathematics and Statistics for modeling exotic financial instruments to be bought and sold in the Financial Markets. The surge in the use of that type of modeling has led to less reliance on Fundamental analysis which looks at companies and their stocks prices from a traditional accounting - finance perspective.
Many of the financial instruments that caused Wall Street firms problems over the past three years were of the Modern Finance variety that relied too much on exotic mathematical models and not enough on common sense.
There needs to be a reallocation of some <i>brain power</i> from the financial industry and into more
needed areas such as the quest for advances in battery technology and other energy related research.
There is a need for more people with Masters and Phds to be doing something constructive for the United
States rather than helping Wall Street continue to extract a toll from the rest of America.
Wall Street still has a huge influence over out leadership in Washington D.C. and until there are enough politicians to force a change, things will likely continue to follow the current trend of luring those with with hard science backgrounds to Wall Street.

0230 GMT February 28, 2011
Libyan situation really serious: Gaddaffi's fave nurse leaves Readers can make fun of the Editor if they want, but today he is feeling bad for Colonel Gaddaffi. His fave nurse, a 38-year-old Ukraine lady of considerable pulchritude-ness, has abandoned him. She called her daughter to say she is returning.
The colonel personal pilot, a Norwegian, caught an evacuation flight out of Libya. Can't blame him: he's a contract employee doing a job, and understandably he'd rather be alive with his savings than dead.
More towns have fallen to the rebels reports Al Jazzera. Though one town may still revert back to the loyalists, the rest of Libya seems to be out of Gaddaffi's control. A provisional government promising elections ahs been set up in Benghazi.
The town in danger is Zawiyah, 50-km west of Tripoli. One loyalist counter-attack was beaten back. BBC has a correspondent there and he says people are determined to hold out. Other towns to the west but close to Tripoli have fallen.
New York Times says Zawiyah is firmly in rebel hands Soldiers have joined the rebels; the street entrances are being fortified, and the rebel soldiers have six tanks.
Understandably reportage is of very poor quality, but yesterday's reports that people are preparing to reinforce Tripoli against Gaddaffi seem to be premature. Nonetheless, some suburbs in Tripoli are definitely in rebel hands.
UK freezes Libyan assets, Australia declares unilateral sanctions
Royal Air Forces rescues 150 more people from the oil fields. Three C-130s made the rescue, one was hit by small arms fire. Only 20 of the people are British, the rest are other nationalities.
So would Washington like to tell us what the much vaunted US Special Operations Command is doing, if anything? We're kind of annoyed that the Brits are getting all the glory. No use saying "we have to maintain secrecy" because the Brits are not, they're running around boasting openly - and they have a right to boast. They've done a good job. Whereas US has done - what?
Read this article to see why Orbat.com is fuming http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8350873/Libya-special-forces-return-to-rescue-more-stranded-civilians.html One almost feels like filing suit against the US Government for allowing America to be bested in this Special Forces thing.
Russians unloading fuel rods at Iran's Bushire The Russians recently started loading the reactor, arguing they had a contract and the reactor is under IAEA surveillance. Some days back we read that the Russians are very upset at the Iranians for not maintaining proper operating procedures. If you know how the Russians are about safety in general, you've got to really worry if they are scared about safety.
So we don't know why the Russians are upset or if it has anything to with Stuxnet, or just the Iranians ignoring precautions to get Bushire working quickly and thumb their noses at the west. But Iran has notified IAEA that the fuel rods will be unloaded.
Maybe rising Chinese wages are finally starting to hit Chinese exports UK Telegraph reports that denim factories in Xintang are refusing further orders and shutting down because a combination of rising wages and high cotton prices are making it impossible for the Chinese to meet the low prices demanded by western buyers.
The area has 1-million workers who make 260-million pairs of jeans a year. The minimum wage is now 5,000-yuan/month - and people are refusing to work for that.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/8349425/The-end-of-Chinas-cheap-denim-dream.html
When Editor looks at the devastation of the American textile industry in the last 20 years, he finds it difficult to weep for the Chinese.
At the same time, one should be careful of jumping to conclusions - that is why we put the "maybe" in the comment heading.
First, the article makes quite clear this amount of production cannot be shifted to other lower-wage countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh.
Second, if you read the article, the problem is not that Chinese wages have gone up, but that western suppliers have gotten used to low-cost imports which they mark up to ensure fat profits. The importers are offering unrealistically low prices given the increasing prosperity of China. When denim exports stop because the exporters cannot meet Price X, the importers will have to pay X+more money, or they wont have jeans to sell. So obviously the importers will pay more, and pass that cost to customers.
The customers can stand around and say: we used to buy nice jeans at $30, now you're asking $50, we aren't going to buy. Fair enough. And pretty soon the materialist-consumption-gorging higher income countries will need to replace the jeans they wear/hoarded.
So the importers will have to offer more money, and denim exports will resume.
Now, the point is, at what stage does it become cheaper for North Carolina to start making denim again? The 5000-yuan, which Chinese workers in the area find too little, is about $600. That's more than six times the wages of about twenty years ago - we're estimating and rounding up. US couldn't compete when Chinese wages were 50-cents/hour. Can they compete when Chinese wages are $3/hour?
Chinese wages of $3/hour have to be added to because (a) shipping; (b) duties; (c) general hassle factor of dealing with suppliers half a world away. Not being in the trade we cant say how much this cost is. But say it adds another dollar to the cost of the wages.
Whether US can compete at Chinese wages of $4 compared to - say $12 for North Carolina depends on if the US factories are three times as productive.
And here comes the kicker. Since US has been out of the textile business for so long, who has been doing the R and D to give US factories three-times greater productivity? US industrial capability is so run down its not even clear that the new machinery can be built in America anymore.
So then we'll have to take Chinese R and D and Chinese factories to get us that hypothetical super-efficient machinery. At which point the Chinese government will subsidize modernization of their denim factories, so the Chinese will now be three times as productive.
US will be left sucking its thumb and mumbling "America is exceptional. We are exceptional. We are so exceptional."
So you see, the issue is not even so much low Chinese wages and an undervalued yuan. Its that the Chinese have an industrial policy.
To us, anything that smacks of industrial policy is anathema. Its heresy. It's like stomping on the US Constitution and flag. Its denying America is exceptional. It's like saying apple pie was actually invented in the Han Dynasty and brought to America by the great Chinese mariner Zheng He. It's like the false prophet. Its like worshipping the Anti-Christ, Great Beast and the number 666.
Well, people, Americans have a choice in this matter of industrial policy as they do in the matter of eliminating the deficit and labor unions. We can either aim for ideological purity. like the Shias and the Sunnis (we take this thought from Steve Pearlstein of the Washington Post) and Al Qaeda (our thought), or we can be pragmatic.
If its pragmatism we chose, then we can get this country going again. If its ideological purity we choose, we can hope the Chinese will at least allow us to sell them the cotton for their denim

0230 GMT February 27, 2011

Ireland Fianna Fail The party that has governed Ireland for nearly 60 years was wiped out in the just completed election, losing 58 seats. The voters have rejected the austerity plan the previous government worked out with the EU.
EU people are saying that the deal is done, and Ireland had best realize its done and there will be no re-negotiations.
The new majority party, Fine Gael, is committed to renegotiations. Their position is that the EU had better decides what it wants, half-a-loaf or none, because Ireland will default if the agreements are not changed.
Interesting.
Meanwhile, back on the ranch, Editor managed to corral his youngest long enough to actually have a brief conversation. Youngest is pretty wise not to say very widely read. Editor put it to youngest that no deal to save America will work because (a) on the one hand people will not agree to real cuts which will mean effectively eliminating the Federal Government including defense; and (b) on the other hand people will not agree to tax increases. Thus we are headed for default.
Youngest agreed, but said: "There's nothing wrong with default. Through history sovereign states have regularly defaulted. So what if the US defaults?"
Getting three consecutive sentences out of the youngest is quite an achievement.
Thoughts, people? Now that we've said the D word aloud, is default really such a bad thing? Editor thinks it would be worth it, if only because the Chinese would be done out of the $1-trill worth of US debt they hold, hehehehe. All the excess US consumers are prone to will be eliminated. That's a good thing in itself. The very rich will not just take a hair cut, they will lose their hair entirely. That has to be a terrific thing, since its the very rich of all political stripes that have pandered to the public with ever increasing social welfare program, just to get more votes, so that they can control the system and channel 40 years of GDP increases to themselves. That has to be very definitely worth it.
Best of all, US dollar will crash, in the worst case to 1/4th its current value. Oil and commodity prices will crash too. That will stick it those terror-loving Mideast camel drivers and despots of every kind, including Russia. And US made goods will suddenly be ultra competitive all over the world.
Then we can start all over again, and create an economy that balances taxes with limited government spending, and we can all breathe again. It will be a new day in America, such as Ronald Reagan promised us, but never gave us since he started reducing taxes without spending cuts. And he called himself a Republican. Sheesh.
Sometimes the system is so corrupt you have to destroy it and start all over again. That's what the Egyptians, Tunisians, and Libyans say. Maybe we can learn something from the real camel drivers as opposed to those who drive Mercedes and Rolls Royce camels.
The Green Psycho We hate to accuse anyone of being psycho, not just because we are not trained professionals, but everyone has their own reality. Just because it doesn't coincide with everyone else's reality doesn't mean they are psycho, they could be geniuses.
But what other conclusion can we come to after the good Colonel G (Green is the color of his revolution from back in the day) says in a TV appearance "Either I rule you, or I kill you"; and (b) "If you don't love me, you don't deserve to live.
Its the second utterance that has us really worried, because even God doesn't say to love him or he will kill you. Not good at all.
British evacuation of 150 citizens You will all have read of this. But what we didn't know till a little while ago is that the 150 are oil workers rescued by special forces using two C-130s belonging to a Royal Air Force SF support flight. There are still 300 British citizens oil workers stranded and the military is looking for them.
Meanwhile, you will have read of the tremendous amount of criticism the UK Foreign Office and Government have been getting because the evacuation of British citizens from Libya has, according to the Brits, completely botched and no signs of contingency plans. So the UK Telegraph runs a cartoon with a crowd of people waiting to be evacuated from Tripoli airport. One man is looking at a signboard that says:

UK Foreign Office
We apologize for delays because of the wrong kind of uprising

Protestors retake parts of Tripoli Reports say that police have abandoned parts of Tripoli in the face of protestors, and the latter are busy fortifying the streets against the entry of loyalist forces.
Daily it looks more like Tripoli is the regime's last stronghold, so any loss of territory in the capital is significant. Yesterday we couldn't mention (because we were worried our internet was about to crash) that as of Friday there were reports that one town to the west of Tripoli had been retaken by loyalists.
US moves against Gaddaffi US is now saying it could do nothing till it got its citizens out of Libya, and this is fair. But what the US has announced as moves against the regime make no sense. Cancellation of visas. Seizure of funds. Severing of military and diplomatic contact.
We think even Washington by now must be fairly clear that the good Colonel G is going to go down with the ship, and he is not going to be influenced by visa cancellations and the threat of war crime investigations.
Now, from here we cannot leap to the conclusion that the US should militarily intervene in Libya. From what we read, the Libyans themselves are asking the west NOT to intervene on the ground. Bad as things are, they do not want foreign troops on their soil. But certainly a no fly zone is acceptable. Another thing the US can do is to announce it will monitor Libya's borders, and any mercenaries caught entering or departing Libya will be arrested for trial, whereas those who surrender will be given a sympathetic hearing.
Talking about mercenaries Rumor is Colonel G. is paying his mercs $2000/day. So on a forum yesterday we saw someone say: "Okay, so we're going "Gaddaffi mercs bad", but what are American civilian contractors except mercenaries?" Do you have thoughts on this, readers?
Slovak Army Orbat and the Slovak Language So our Slovakia entry needed updating, since the last update for Concise World Armies is over 18-months old. So you also may know thought at one point we had over 40 people working on Concise World Armies, all part-time ofcourse, and many who did just a country or two or three, since we never succeeded in making the business model commercially viable, just about everyone dropped out. A dozen people used to get paid $100/year, and everyone else got nothing. So the Editor has to do much of the updating done by others.
So it being Slovakia's turn, off we went to the Slovak MOD website. Oooops! Its in Slovak. So there's good old Google Translator. But Slovak is one of those languages that has very words in common with languages like English, Spanish, French, and German, all of which we can read fairly well when it comes to military stuff. After hours of going back and forth, often on just a phrase or a couple of words, we had to take a serious break.
Now look, Slovakia MOD. We realize when you have an army of exactly five combat battalions, you'd likely think "who wants to read this stuff?". But see, you would be very wrong. Orbat.com wants to read the stuff. Yes, Editor is highly fascinated by the TO of a Slovak mechanized company. He is driven to know, so he can share this with his 50 customers, and then look at himself in a mirror, grinning away, and shouting at the top of his voice: "Yes, yes! I am completely crazy that I want to know, I love torturing myself for absolutely no financial reward in return while the bills pile up, yes, I would love to know the makeup of the Slovak mechanized infantry platoon as well!"
You will recall what the Editor said the other day in his Axioms for the Young Spy: "Axiom 1: The demand for even more intelligence grows exponentially with its availability." So in 2009 we were pleased we had a battalion orbat of the Slovak Army, done by someone who lives in that region and can read several Slav languages. But this is now 2011, and Editor is absolutely driven to get a company orbat, and doing that when one doesn't know a single world of the language is very, very hard. The next step in the descent to madness is a platoon orbat, or at least TOs of several types of platoons. (You see why we were reluctant to call Colonel G a psycho. Let him who would cast the first stone etc. Kettles and pots etc. Glass houses and so on.)
What really nuts about this is that you have Jane's World Armies, at $2000 a year, and it gives way less orbat information that we do, and relies much more on secondary or tertiary sources than we do. If we could sell CWA for $2000, even just 10 copies would mean people could get paid a few hundred dollars each, and that plus a free copy would be plenty reward for most orbat types.
Oh, since you asked: Slovak mechanized company has HQ, three mech inf platoons, and a combat support platoon. But we dont know how many AFVs are in each company. Russian style is 2 in the HQ and three for each platoon. India does 4 for each platoon and two in the HQ. That's not just more firepower, when you're fighting dismounted, the Indian mech inf plat is of sufficient size to absorb casualties and still remain effective. Its no use considering what you have before you close in with the enemy, because once you're closed in, you take casualties and your effectiveness drops. That's why UMUC used to have 14 man rifle squads. We were quite amazed to learn they no longer do.

0230 GMT February 26, 2011

We're having internet connectivity issues and are loading the update ASAP before something major goes wrong.

Libya Loyalists forces have regained control of central Tripoli, but now opposition forces from other cities and areas are on their way to Tripoli to resume the fight. Rumors say the opposition has taken an air base on the outskirts of Tripoli.
Meanwhile, opposition fought of attempts by loyalists to retake several towns.
As for the western response, let us simply draw a curtain lest readers fell ashamed of their governments.
Iraq The Government has declared a state of emergency to contain protests. BBC says at least nine people have been killed. Baghdad is under total lockdown.
Before anyone smacks their heads and says "for this the US invaded Iraq?", remember, revolutions don't proceed in discrete forward steps. There are steps forward and back till institutions are built up. We cannot expect Iraq, or Egypt, or Libya to become western style democracies overnight. There is much trouble in store for the Arab world. Think in terms of 30 years, not 30 days. Be patient. Trust the people.
851 US Embassy/Consulate personnel in Pakistan have diplomatic immunity reader VA tells us using a Pakistan news item which in turn used information given by the Government to Parliament. 554 are diplomats, 297 are staffers.
No movement as far as we know on the case of Our Man In Lahore. if you have nothing better to do, read this Dawn of Pakistan story about the arrival of one woman, three children, and two men who arrived in Pakistan saying they were OMIL's family.

0230 GMT February 25, 2011

Wikileak's leader loses case, appeals to High Court Basically the judge said the man's claims about not getting a fair trial in Sweden were without foundation, and claims that the US would extradite him from Sweden and torture and kill him were not credible.
UK Special Forces evacuating UK oil workers from Libya. This from UK Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8346701/Libya-Gaddafis-billions-to-be-seized-by-Britain.html. "Special forces soldiers were understood to be assisting the evacuation of dozens more British oil workers. They were thought to be preparing to travel in convoys across land to Tunisia or Egypt, but they will have to pass through dozens of checkpoints set up by rebel forces or troops loyal to Col Gaddafi."
The oil fields are in the south, so the British troops are well inside Libya. Naturally this creates the question of what else they may be up to, but reasonably, until UK at least has herded up its nationals, any action against the regime is not a good idea.
What fascinates us about this report is that it is thrown in just as a by-the-way in another article on Libya. Perhaps US Government asked its journalists to keep mum?
US denies rumors Col G has been killed (same link as above)
UK prepares to seize Col. G's money estimated at $32-billion in UK alone (same link as above).
Libya To summarize: the good Colonel has lost, or is about to lose, most of the country. Triopli is his because his loyalists and mercenaries have reinforced the study and have suppressed the demonstrators. Nonetheless, a general protest has been called for Friday. Gaddafi loyalists attacked Zawiya,a town 30-km west of Tripoli, killing at least ten people at a mosque, and others in other parts of the town. There is fighting at Zuwara, to the west of Zawiya. East of Tripoli (where most of Libya lies), the only major town in loyalist hands is Sirte, according to a map by the BBC http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12570279
Col. G came on the telephone to say that Bin Laden had incited the revolt, and only drugged out youngsters under the age of 20 were participating. Then he abruptly went off the line, leaving people to wonder if he is still in Libya.
The good colonel said he was in the same situation as Britain's queen, who had ruled for 57 years. He had ruled for 41. we'll leave to the psychologists why he wants to be compared to the Queen, and he does call himself King of Kings, but does he honestly think he is hereditary monarch? That would make him son to King Idris, whom Gaddafi overthrew when he (Gaddafi) was a young officer of age 28. Then he cant be like the Queen, because she didn't overthrow her father George VI to seize the throne.
Bwahahahaha Today while scrolling very rapidly through scores of stories we came across an amusing one but couldn't stop to get a URL as we were under pressure on another job.
The Chinese claim that in 2009 they penetrated the US-Japan first ASW defensive lines without detection until they reached Guam.
May we ask how the Chinese know they were not detected? Are they saying because they were not pinged by active sonar they were not detected? In which case we suggest they go back and read a basic text on ASW/submarines.
Further, the article spoke of the missteps of Chinese submarines because they found that the food they carry went bad after a week. This was not a problem as long as the Chinese submarines took only short patrols. So Chinese crews were returning half-starved after their longer patrols.
Does this sound like a navy that has any clue what it is doing?
Now, we are not saying that these days the US and Japanese Navies are just lurking around waiting to tail every Chinese submarine that leaves port. Its total peacetime, the Chinese are no threat to anyone outside of the China Seas, the Russians hardly go to sea. So why keep a 24/365 alert? So its quite possible a Chinese submarine happily went east without detection simply because no one was watching.
At the same time, Japan has over 90 P-3 operational, US still runs passive detection lines of defense, and still operates TAGOS ships off China, though most have been decommissioned because of the disappearance of the Soviet submarine threat. Both US and Japanese regularly test their submarines against Chinese boats. So its unlikely any long range patrol would remain undetected, but again, it could happen because no one is watching.
Also, folks, don't forget the US has shifted a lot of its ocean surface and underwater surveillance capability to space.
That doesn't change our point: how would the Chinese know they were not detected?
Again, we are arguing for balance, not complacency. China is a rising maritime power, even if it has not reached the level of threat posed by USSR before the breakup of the Soviet fleet. Long-range planning must be done - and is being done - for the future.
India first in something at last: man has 39 wives, 94 children 33 grandchildren Everyone lives in the same house, BTW. Link sent by reader VA.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/india/8340679/Indian-man-with-39-wives-94-children-and-33-grandchildren.html

0230 GMT February 24, 2011

Color us Very Confused

1600 GMT: Here is the original story from Mother Jones

http://motherjones.com/politics/2011/02/indiana-official-jeff-cox-live-ammunition-against-wisconsin-protesters

So we put the daily update to bed and got down to some real work, like finding the formula for area of ellipse when only the semi-minor axis and foci are known. (If you have the formula, please send soonest.) While searching for the mysterious formula we came across this story in UK Daily Mail http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1360041/Wisconsin-protests-Indiana-deputy-AG-fired-urging-police-use-live-ammunition.html
An Indiana Deputy AG has been fired for saying on Twitter that live ammunition should be used to clear demonstrators in the Wisconsin budget battle. He said that its his business what he says on Twitter, but his boss decided that as a government employee, the Deputy AG does not have the same freedom of speech as a private individual.
OK, we thought, obviously the man has delusions of being Gadaffi, we can forgive him that because when we think of Gadaffi's East European nurses Editor too has delusions. What the deputy Twittered is a strange thing to say, but anyway, he's gone.
Then we thought lets see what US media is saying. CNN does not mention the story. CBS does not mention the story. ABC does not mention the story.
We'd love to do more research on what's going down here: is the Daily Mail wrong or is the US media doing self-censorship or what, but we have to get back to writing Volume 2 of the Great Novel. Volume 1 took 44 years, and Editor has no idea how to find an agent, so he started on Volume 2 and has done 545 of 600 pages in sixty days part time. No doubt he'll fini9sh this soon and have to start on Volume 3 because he still won't know how to get an agent, and he'll end up like that youngster who wrote "A Confederacy of Dunces" (what a great book) and died broken hearted because he couldn't get an agent either. It was published after his death, fat lot of good that did him.
(Yo, people, any agents read this blog? Any agents who are Eastern European nurses in the Gadaffi style read this blog? If so, please contact.)
Washington Post on Our Man In Lahore “I think they missed the play on this,” said one, whose name cannot be used because he maintains close ties to the CIA. “The [right] move was for [Davis] to drive/walk/run away from the scene [instead of] calling for backup. Then, from the security of the embassy compound, they could either negotiate or slip him out of the country a million different ways."
“This is what comes of taking guys who are basically commandos and letting them play at being spooks. They think in the wrong way. They do not understand that spies are not supposed to fire their weapons, and, if they do, they are supposed to float away, not hang around to talk to the authorities.”
The article at http://voices.washingtonpost.com/spy-talk/2011/02/ray_davis_rescue_mission_impos.html was forwarded to us by Mandeep Singh Bajwa. It also discusses the difficulties US will face to bust OMIL out of jail. While the entire article is sourced to one unknown person, this person does have good points to make (as above) and on a possible rescue mission.
So whose fault is CIA must rely in contractors? Naturally the Main Stream Media will never get around to asking this question. We, not being MSM, boldly asked. We got two different answers.
Answer One: the US has fallen in loved with technical intelligence which is clean, precise, and does not require the messy business of running agents. The operations part of the CIA has been seriously run down in favor of technology. Someone will come up with a figure saying the operations people have hired more people in Year X than before, the problem is that the post-2001 needs have hugely escalated the need for numbers. As we all should know by now, and some of knew even back then, there is no substitute for humans.
Answer Two: the current operations manpower requirements are so high that CIA has to hire contractors.
Advice for young spies You can safely reduce intelligence operations by 90% without affecting national security. Here are the Editor's axioms about intelligence. Axiom 1: The demand for even more intelligence grows exponentially with its availability. Axiom 2: The quality and utility of intelligence decreases in inverse proprotion to the increase in its quantity. Axiom 3: You can never prove you have enough intelligence.
Thank you. If you quote these, please be sure to credit Editor.
President Obama on Libya "President Barack Obama assailed the violence, saying, "The suffering and bloodshed is outrageous and it is unacceptable." And: "These actions violate international norms and every standard of common decency," he said. "This violence must stop." http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/24/world/africa/24libya.html?_r=1&hp
On stage, in soothing tones: "Of course, Mr. President. You are right, Mr. President. Right away, Mr. President." (Loud whisper off-stage: "When he gets like this you have to agree with him or he gets worse."
The article also speaks of the revolt spreading to western Libya, including to a Gadaffi stronghold, and coming closer to Tripoli. large scale army defections, and the arrival of thousands of mercenaries in Tripoli. Another reports says most army units have no mutinied, but have not been deployed for fear when told to attack civilians they will defect. Despite the arrival of mercenaries, protestors in Tripoli plan to intensify their efforts against the regime.
Jose Gonazales sends a link to a UK Guardian map that provides information on which areas are in revolt, where are the oil fields, and the location of major army and air bases. http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-files/Guardian/documents/2011/02/23/Libya.pdf
For details on how Gadaffi maintained his power, see http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703775704576161712936171594.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories

0230 GMT February 23, 2011

President Gaddaffi Vows To Die A Martyr Orbat.com says "May the Divine not make him wait". In a speech from Tripoli the good colonel proves conclusively his grasp on reality has gone. He said so many weird things best you read them for yourself http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/02/201122216458913596.htm if you don't have the time, one of his statement will have to suffice: "I have not yet ordered the use of force, not yet ordered one bullet to be fired ... when I do, everything will burn". Typical of an absolute monarch who conflates the state with his person, but someone needs to tell Colonel G he is not an absolute monarch appointed by God, he is just a common human being like the rest of us.
It has to be said that at best of time Colonel G was eccentric - we are using a kind word, but he appears to have outdone himself.
Libya Reports say Eastern Libya is no longer under government control. For the first time trouble is reported in a western city and in the southweat (see also AFP report below.)
Tripoli The government appears to have the upper hand inside the city, though there is fighting between army units which revolted and loyalists. Protestors have been driven from the city center by the use of jet aircraft, helicopters, and heavy weapons. Reports speak of loyalists massing to attack two neighborhoods which are home to the demonstrators. Since the loyalists have been shooting on sight, to the extent dead bodies cannot be picked up, there is apprehension that a massacre of civilians is imminent.
There are several reports of the regime's use of African and East European mercenaries to attack the people. The people are returning the favor by killing mercenaries whenever they can catch them.
United States has the deer-in-the-headlights look. Seems there is a limit to how much "change" the US can take at one time. Don't believe US government supporters who say US is working quietly behind the scenes. US had much leverage on Egypt, and even more in Bahrain. It did - belatedly - work behind the scenes and was effective. It has zero leverage in Libya. US is not doing anything because short of military intervention, which the US is superb at, US cannot
Meanwhile, the pathetic, limp noodle, oil-addicted West is mumbling about the possibility of intervention up to an including bombing Libyan airfields and imposing a no-fly zone. The UN Secretary General is whispering about crimes against humanity. Since China/Russia will veto any resolution against Colonel G, the UN is dead-on-arrival. Its not just the oil, remember, its the money western companies will lose if by some chance Gaddaffi survives and then kicks them out.
AFP Report "2338 GMT: Jebril el-Kadiki, deputy air force chief of staff, says arms and ammunitions depots have been bombed in Rajma, near the eastern city of Al-Baida; in Ajdabia and Al-Gueriet in the south and near Zenten and Mezda in the southwest. Kadiki says all of the facilities were located in desert areas, away from any inhabited areas."
Several high-ranking Libyan officers have mutinied, we don't know if this gentleman is one.
The mystery ship A Libyan warship is stalled off Malta and rumors say it has lowered its flags, indicating it wants to surrender, say Al Jazzera. But the Italians, for reasons they are not saying, are not entirely convinced. They scrambled five fighters to take a look. Lets see what comes of this.
Off Oman Pirates the other day seized a yacht with four civilians. US Navy tracked the pirates. Negotiations began with the pirate. Gunfire was heard from the pirate side. USN attacked, killing two pirates and capturing 13. The four civilians were found dead. So there's another lot headed for trial in Virginia, and Virginia is not blushingly shy about imposing the death penalty. Impose it against all 13 and make an example. Else this piracy thing will go on and on.
BBC helpfully gives the pirates side, though how BBC knows what was going on is beyond us. If they are relying on the accounts of the pirates's mates on shore, are these people credible? Do criminals leap to tell the truth when their cohorts are caught? The pirates say they were negotiating when the US Navy attacked them, so the hostages were killed. As if that justifies anything. Grow up, main stream media. In your world there is no right, no wrong, only victims of the US Government. Despicable.
Further, the US Navy says two pirates had boarded a navy ship for negotiations when someone on the yacht fired an RPG at the shop, followed by gunfire from the yacht. Navy did not fire on the yacht: it was boarded by SEALs without a shot being fired.
In case the BBC hasn't noticed, the pirates appear usually to be hopped up to the gills and then some. And you expect these people to be rational and then believe their cohorts's stories?
BTW, all the blah about the pirates treating crew well because after all, they want the money, is just that - blah. There are cases where pirates have beaten hostages, shot at them, sometimes killed them, locked them in freezer compartments, and tied them up to drag them behind the ships. You know, all the friendly stuff.
And will BBC bother to remember that the Islamic fundamentalists take their share of every ransom that is paid? Does the BBC care?

0230 GMT February 22, 2011

Libya Demonstrations have engulfed Tripoli, the capital, and army units who have mutinied there are said to be fighting loyalists. The death toll Sunday in Tripoli was between 65-100, though no one knows for sure.
Just as we were wondering what the Libyan Air Force was up to, reader Chris Raggio sent us a Stratfor article saying the air force had been ordered to attack demonstrators. By the time we starting this update several sources said the air force had done just that - again, we must beware of circular reporting.
Two Mirage fighter pilots landed in Malta and asked for asylum, saying they had been ordered to attack civilians. They claim to be colonels; their antecedents are being checked.
Several Libyan diplomatic missions overseas have defected.
The UN Secretary General had a 40-minute conversation with President Colonel Gaddafi and told him he had to stop killing civilians. We are sure a chastised President vowed to change his ways. not. We cant understand why this conversation lasted 40 minutes unless the UN head was providing personal counseling to a despondent Colonel G.
The British foreign minister said that the good colonel had headed to Venezuela, but Al Jazzera reported from Caracas that the Venezuela government has denied this. Maybe the colonel has left and maybe he hasn't, but surely no one expects the government would say he has, because that would mean the end of the regime.
Question: If Colonel G has fled to Venezuela, where will Hugo flee to, when his turn comes? Teheran?
Pakistan I The Government of Pakistan says it has overspent $750-million on defense in the first half of Fiscal 2010-2011 because of unexpected CI operations against rebels.
Problem: we checked with Bill Roggio (www.longwarjournal.org) who keeps a very close eye on Pakistan, and he says he is not aware of any major operations underway in the last eight months. Point being the Pakistan's, far from spending extra, shouldn't have spent what was budgeted.
We spoke with Mandeep Singh Bajwa, our South Asia expert. He says the Pakistan Army has simply been doing rotation and maintenance of troops in their cantonments and bases. Mr. Bajwa has first-rate sources within Indian external and military intel.
Pakistan II/Our Man in Lahore First, please folks, let's get one thing right. OMIL is not CIA. He is a contractor. He may be assigned to work with the CIA, but that doesn't make him CIA. Second, why has US suddenly decided to "admit" he is CIA or employed by it? Easier to argue the case he has diplomatic immunity is our best information - which may change tomorrow. CIA officers normally operate under diplomatic cover.
OK. Though by now the story is pretty well gone over, Mr. Bajwa confirms that OMIL was on his way from an on-site meeting with his sources. The Pakistanis freaked because he was blatant about it, right under their nose so as to speak. The two men following him were tailing him and intended only to scare him. whether they were doing this on orders or on their own because he had made a fool of Pakistan intelligence by making rude gestures so as to speak, or because they were told to, is not known.
Next, Mr. Bajwa correctly points out General Kiyani is the one who will decide the next move. We have told our readers General K is a very cool cucumber who has no problem playing chicken with the US. For example, instead of equivocating about the Waziristan offensive the US wanted, he flatly said he wasn't go to do it.
Mr. Bajwa's information is that General K is quite ready to go toe-to-toe with the US on OMIL, and he is disinclined to make any decision at this time.
Nonetheless, Editor's information is that the US-Pakistan are negotiating hard. What is being negotiated we cannot tell, because we have no secret agent cleaning Pakistan ISI's bathrooms, unlike our man at Langley.
Again, it is not the Pakistanis do not know US intel in all forms is all over Pakistan. They are upset because of the brazen way OMIL went to meet his Pakistani contacts, and the calm way he killed his tails. OMIL after whacking the Pakistani agents calmly got of his car and took pictures - an excellent thing for an agent to do, but we're wondering if that extra 2-3 minutes interfered with his clean get-away.
BBC says new information says the US Embassy mounted no rescue attempt: Mr. Davis was clearing the way for the vehicle following. This makes sense, because we have been unable to figure out how the Embassy got a vehicle to OMIL so quickly. It may appear intriguing that two vehicles were involved, but if you think about it, having someone covering OMIL makes sense.
By the way: did we mention that the two tails on a motorcycle weren't the only tails? There was at least one other, in a car.
As for masks and a hundred bullets and cameras with pictures of Pakistani bases - please, Pakistan, your people need to stop watching spy movies.

0230 GMT February 21, 2011

Update 0300 GMT A son of Col. Gaddafi has gone on TV, warning that the Army was behind the president and that his father would fight to the last bullet. He raised the specter of civil war and a Libya divided into several states. This son has no elected office, so its not clear why he and not his father delivered the threats.
Interestingly, the son confirmed that "some" army bases have fallen to the rebel including tanks and equipment. This can mean only that several units have mutinied, because no number of civilians can simply seize bases manned by soldier backed by tanks, artillery, helicopters, and fighter aircraft.
Because we don't understand Arabic, we did not watch Al Jazzera's film of the broadcast available at http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/02/2011220232725966251.html So while we cannot be sure of the nuances of the son's use of words, and much can be lost in translation, we are wondering if his use of the term "civil war" means that mutineers are fighting the loyalists, beyond the fighting in Benghazi.
Meanwhile, we had mentioned that Libya's largest tribe had come out for the demonstrators. Al Jazzera refers to as "one" of the largest, but more important the tribe, which lives south of Benghazi in the area of Libyan oilfields, has threatened to shut down oil production in 24-hours if the government does not back off. This raises more question: has the tribe already taken the oil fields and have the government units tasked for their protection also mutinied? Or is this just a threat at this time?
Libya Security forces in Benghazi have killed at least 200 demonstrators and wounded 900 according to reports, but the demonstrators are not giving up. For some reason the security forces are attacking demonstrators at funerals, which ironically ups the death toll and leads to more demonstration. The demonstrators have seized weapons and vehicles from troops, and a special army unit has defected, and has been fighting Gaddafi loyalists. The army brigade's compound in Benghazi has been attacked and has been breached, but the brigade per see has not switched sides.
Meanwhile, Al Jazzera says despite heavy security in Tripoli demonstrations continue with the people taunting Gaddafi to show himself is he is a man. Fat chance of that happening. al Jazz also says demonstrations have broken out in four more town, making seven by our count, and anti-Gaddafi graffiti has appeared in several more times. A major Libyan tribe has come out against the president.
Also meanwhile our fave sybarite Berlo is showing a complete lack of moral fiber for which we find it hard to forgive him, even as we do admire him for his bunga bunga thing. For the very young, Italy was the colonial power in Libya and still has significant influence in that country. When Berlo was asked why he is not joining in the western chorus of condemnation he said he didn't want to "disturb" Gaddafi.
Sorry, Berlo, in this case you definitely not The Man. What a cop out. Are you going to lose personal money if Gaddafi is overthrown? If so, come out and say it and at least we'll understand your reluctance to speak out.
We are sorry to be rude but we, at least, would really appreciate it if Washington would just shut up and stop making an utter fool of itself and the United States. US Government is every day pathetically bleating like a spavined sheep about its "deep concern" about the use of force in Libya. Either do something about it - if you dare - or keep quiet. Of course Washington is not going to do a darn thing - its that three-letter world again that starts with an O and ends with an L (hint hint). So just please keep quiet and stop drawing attention to your whimpering. This kind of "global power" no one needs.
Just a small example of why people get mad at the Government Washington Post has a lengthy story how the head of the Washington DC Council demanded, in time for his swearing in, a Lincoln Navigator SUV with particular features. People searched high and they searched low, they contacted dealers in other states, no luck. Then one that sort of met the specs was found just in time at a lease of almost $2000/month, and the chairman of the council has the gall to say he's not happy, but a lease agreement is a lease agreement and what can be now done.
Now look, people, over the chairman's 4-year term, that's almost $100,000. Why is the people's money being spent on this frivolity? If the man has to have an official car, why not a Chevvy Metro, second hand, like the one the Editor has? And please, before someone says his staff needs to travel with him, he needs security, he has have something worth of his station, may we say one thing? If a seco0nd-hand Chevvy Metro is not good enough, make him take Metrobus and Metrorail. To heck with his status, convenience, staff, and security. Why is this man putting himself way ahead of his voters, many of whom are poor? Is Washington DC a third world capital?
Now, Editor is a great fan of effective government, and American governments at all levels are pretty effective. More the reason not to let a single person bring condemnation on government.
And further to the point Some 20 freshmen Congressmen, 18 Republicans and two Democrats, have decided that they are going to live in their offices so they don't have to spend their own money. As someone noted, if you don't have a home and you live in public places, you are legally a vagrant. Other people have asked what are the taxpayers of the United States paying these people $174,000/year for, to save their money by camping out in their offices?
DC police need to arrest these 20 men for vagrancy. In this country all people are supposed to be equal. Well, are we all equal or are we not all equal? Having no fixed address equals vagrancy. Don't say you have a fixed address back in the state from where you came. That doesn't count.
And One-hundred-seventy-four-thousand-dollars a year? Aside from perks? In this economy? No, Sir, Editor does not agree. He lives on $3000/month (two-thirds for mortgage) and no health care. He pays taxes. These fancy-pants can jolly well live on $36,000/year. Cut their absurd salaries: immediately.
And you knew this was going to happen A number of Congresspersons got elected on the promise that things would change when they got to Washington and the old corrupt ways had to go. So what do they do when they get to Washington? Raise money, both to clear campaign debt and prepare for the next round of elections. Are nuns and Girl Scouts giving them this money? No, sir. Its the same lobbyists they excoriated. Are the lobbyists giving money so that the Congresspersons can lash them out of that holy temple (not) the US Congress? We'll let the Congresspersons answer.
Now, anyone who is familiar with Washington knew that their promises to change the system were worth less than of a heroin addict's promises if you give him another chance he'll go clean. So really, Editor should be blasting the naïveté of the people who elected these people. Because Americans are forever optimistic, they are also forever naive. An honest face, an intense look are all that is neccessary to convince Americans you are a person of your word.
But Americans also get taken in because they can't face the alternative. And the alternative is that since the entire political system, from top to bottom, is corrupt, the entire system needs to be razed to the ground and we have to start anew.
This is what America should again be about American doctors have invented a way to lay down layers of skin using a device just like an inkjet printer. In fact, the experimental models use inkjet printer heads. They take a sample of your skin, culture it to grow more cells, and then the "printer" makes multiple passes over the skin that has to be replaced, say if you are burned. They've figured a way to deliver the cells under pressure so the "printer" does not have to touch any part of your body.
Even better, the doctors say the same technique can be used to manufacture organs, and as early as last year was used to do just that for mouse organs shttp://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=desktop-printer-technology-lay-down-cells Also see http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/mimssbits/25944/?p1=A5
Is this not mind blowing?
But if you read, say, Business Week regularly, as the Editor does, you will read page after page of how clever people are making money by being clever about finance, or how so-and-so has just invented a new computer application. Folks, finance and computer apps and social media are not going to get America back to being King of the Hill (Royal Person of the Hill, to be gender neutral?) All this talk about "a knowledge economy" is just so much hogwash. (There we go again, insulted the hogs who wouldn't touch this stuff if they were starving.) You have to make things.
Because if we don't make things, the Chinese are going to (have already) stomp us flat in manufacturing, and the Indians will stomp us flat in the knowledge economy (they're starting). If we don't get our act together, we're going to be a third world exporter of commodities.
Now we're going to say something which will upset our free market believers That people in America make billions on finance and software instead of manufacturing, shows the free market as defined in America is not working. It is driving us into the ground, making us a nation of has beens. And of course, we don't have a free market. We have a government that makes rules so that the rich get more rich. That's not free market.
Simple remedy: 94% tax on financial and software profits. 20% if you make things. Outrageous? Well, from 1941 through 1963 the maximum tax rate in America ranged between 80% and 94%. Between 1964 and 1973 it was 70%. ( http://www.truthandpolitics.org/top-rates.php ) We stop at 1973 because some economists use 1940-73 as the period during which America grew richer than any other country in the world. We did pretty well with what today would be considered confiscatory tax rates.
This is exactly the kind of thinking that drives our less-government friends nuts. But we're not saying anything about more government. By all means reduce the role of the government. We're talking tax rates. By the way, between 1917 and 1924 tax rates ranged between 44% and 77%. That was before the era of big government.

February 20, 2011

Libya Benghazi and an eastern town are said to have fallen to demonstrators. at Benghazi only one compound is in the military's hands. The military has been using 14.5mm machineguns, mortars, and helicopters against the people in Benghazi; 100 people are reported dead in Libya so far.
Al Jazeera seems to imply an army brigade in Benghazi has mutinied, but the report at http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/02/2011219232320644801.html is unclear. There is another implication that does not mention the brigade, but suggests demonstrators are storming the military compound.
In Tripoli it has been quiet because the heavy security presence has made it impossible for people to move in groups. Al Jazzera says unrest has started in western Libyan towns; so far it has been Tripoli and the east.
Reuters gives more of the government viewpoint at http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFJOE71I0FK20110219?pageNumber=3&virtualBrandChannel=0 We are puzzled by this from Reuters: "Libya-watchers say an Egypt-style nationwide revolt is unlikely because Gaddafi has oil cash to smooth over social problems, and is still respected in much of the country." Is this revolt about money, and do "Libya watchers" think all Colonel Gadaffi has to do is pass around hundred dollar bills and everyone goes home? As for his being respected, how would outsiders know this? The country is a police state where no one can speak their mind.
We were equally surprised to see the "experts" tying the Egypt revolt to economic conditions with frequent mentions of the 9+% unemployment rate. Well, it's the same in the US and Editor at least has not noticed any revolt.
This sort of talk seems very patronizing to the Editor. Have these "experts" for a minute considered that brown folk may simply want what white folk have, which is freedom?
Bahrain The Army abruptly withdrew from the roundabout where protests were taking place and from which demonstrators were forced early. Demonstrators have reoccupied the roundabout.
US-Taliban talks Readers may be surprised that we haven't brought up this subject. That's because the talks have been going on for some time at one level or another. We did mention this - we think - last year, and assumed everyone knew about the talks.
Anyway. Put no significance on the talks. Knowing the US is leaving, many Taliban leaders may well be ready to say: "Okay, we'll forswear violence and participate in the Government." Our readers should be under no illusions that the minute the US withdraws, these same people will rise and take Kabul, and if Karzai hasn't already run away, put his head on a pike.
That doesn't mean a Taliban victory in Afghanistan. We've explained earlier, this time there will be no all-Afghanistan takeover because the Russians and Indians for one will step in on the side of the western tribes. Afghanistan will be split into two parts. US would do best to leave and let the local actors sort it out if they can. Surely by now even the US knows its goal of a stable Afghanistan that will be a bulwark against Al Qaeda is completely irrelevant, since AQ is in Pakistan.
Apparently the US Secretary of State has said that talks are the only way out for the Taliban: "They cannot wait us out. They cannot defeat us and they cannot escape this choice." The editor should not criticize the US's fantasies when he has his fantasies. The difference is that the Editor's fantasies harm no one and impact only one person, him. The US fantasy is costing $10-billion a month. That's a bit more serious.
Anyway, enough of this. We are tired of this subject.

February 19, 2011

A toxic rain in Bahrain So first the Bahrain police without warning attack demonstrators who were sleeping at the place of the demonstrator. This was a 3 AM. Three were killed, others will die from wounds, 300 were injured, including women and children. This attack, says the government of Bahrain, was neccessary to prevent sectarian strife. More on this in a moment.
So on Friday the demonstrators return, and this time the Army opens fire, again without warning, injuring 200 and possibly killing some - the toll is unclear at this point.
Point one. Bahrain is almost 70% Shia; the Sunni minority rules as was the case in Iraq. So the Shias suffer double oppression: the oppression the king imposes on all his citizens, and the extra oppression he imposes on the Shias. Most of the demonstrators have been Shias. Thus the need to crush the demonstrators to avoid "sectarian strife", which really is about the majority asking for freedom.
So how come the police and army are being so cooperative in Bahrain whereas in Tunisia and Egypt the police went away after initial repression and the army refused to save the rulers? Because the Bahrain security forces are heavily manned by mercenaries. Their monthly paycheck comes from the king. No need to connect the dots.
The king has authorized his son to negotiate with the demonstrators, though its unclear what there is to discuss. The Shias want the king gone and democratic rule which would given them the majority. Can't see the king agreeing to that. Cant see the demonstrators agreeing to a few bones to the dogs. Even if they are satisfied for now, they will not remember satisfied for long. And Iranian and possibly even Iraqi arms will start arriving at some point.
Libya BBC reports a confused situation in Libya, made worse because foreign media at best of times is very constrained. Essentially, demonstrations in various towns and cities are escalating and so is the death toll. Amnesty confirms 43 deaths, but from the intake at some hospitals this appears an underestimate.
Government has said anti-Gaddafi protests will be crushed and power has been cut off to some areas. Internet media has been shut down. Elite army units are reported on the move.
But - and here's the confusion - in some cases there are reports that Libyan troops have switched sides and are with the demonstrators. In other places police have abandoned their stations. Trouble is particularly acute in Benghazi, Libya's second largest city, where the airport is said to be under control of the demonstrators. Casualties have been particularly in this city, many caused when demonstrators went to a house by the president when he visits the city and came under fire from guards inside the compound.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12512536
Colonel Gaddafi has been in power since 1969, and well does Editor remember when he came to power, because he was unable to leave Cairo for Tripoli because the good colonel had done his thing, and the airport was closed. Editor remembers thinking that the colonel was a terribly naughty boy. In his old age the colonel seems to have developed a thing for buxom blonde East European "nurses". Can't blame hi, editor has gotten long in the tooth too, in the last 42 years. Difference is the colonel has a few billion US dollars, Editor has a few billion Zimbabwe dollars.
Speaking of Zimbabwe dollars the current rate is Z$12.5-billion to US$1. Before the Government gave up on the money, the rate in 2009 had reached 3-trillion to one US dollar.
In the interests of fair disclosure, should any buxom nurses want to e-mail the editor, he needs to disclose he is a Z$ billionaire at the old rate. The editor does, nonetheless, cook a mean hard-boiled egg and promises to keep said nurses amused with stories about the Good Old Days.
Speaking of Good Old Days Editor's maternal grandfather, being an engineer with a passion for economics, poker, and the stock market, used to tell Editor about his Good Old Days, when the Indian rupee was a real rupee. Editor used to wonder what all this had to do with him. Now Editor is a grandparent, and guess what? You guessed right: he tells his grandchildren about the Good Old Days when the rupee was a real rupee. Both his kids and grandchildren get glazed looks because they only currency they can relate to is the US dollar.
But since we do have some young Indian readers, the following may be of some interest. When Editor was in grade school, giving a beggar 1/64th of a rupee (one pice) was considered reasonable, the beggar would thank you. If you gave him 1/16th of a rupee (one anna), he thanked you, your children, and your grandchildren. Even if you were yourself 7-years old. When Editor was in high school, his pocket money was 1.5 Rupees a week (India had gone decimal a few years earlier). This was at an expensive, elite, boarding school. The rupee-dollar rate used to be Rs 4.76 to the US$. At that rate, India would currently have a GDP of $15-trillion, roughly, today's US GDP.
It was in those days Editor learned that you always gave the first beggar of the day something, without judgment about whether he deserved it or not. Later he learned that if the first beggar asked for all the cash you had on you, you kept back enough to pay for your expenses to and from work and lunch, and you gave him what you had on you. This happened to Editor three times in the 20-years he was in India as an adult.
In the late 1960s, Editor bought jackets for $25 each in Cambridge, Massachusetts, not a cheap town. They were of such good quality he still uses them, more than 40-years later. (Hint: they were made in the US.) Of course, he can't button the jackets anymore. They still fit because he was very skinny into his thirties and the smallest men's sizes hung loose on him. $40,000 bought you a six-room, three-bathroom townhouse in the working class neighborhoods of Cambridge, which were getting gentrified. Editor earned $6/hour. A cheeseburger, small salad, and a chocolate frappe could be had in Cambridge for $1. New England frappes had nothing to with Charles de Gaulle's independent nuclear deterrent, which every red-blooded American man hated more than he hated godless atheist communists. Editor was not a red-blooded American, but naturally picked up American attitudes. Frappes were thick shakes. Very thick shakes.
See how entranced you were with the editor's stories? Would not buxom nurses be equally entranced? As a famous US president once said: "Bring them on!". And they can ask for all the money the Editor has. he will hand it over quietly.

February 18, 2011

Our Man In Lahore He was supposed to have a court hearing today which among other things would have determined if he entitled or not to diplomatic immunity. Well, the court sent him back to jail for 4 more weeks. Its called judicial custody if you are under trial, because since you're not serving a sentence, the prison system does not have official custody of you, the judge does.
First, welcome to the world of the South Asian judicial system. About 20+ years ago, the highest Indian court ruled that for non-heinous offences, ten years under trial is sufficient punishment in itself, and the accused can petition for ending the case. We don't know what happened after this ruling.
The reason the court sends a person back to judicial custody is not because the judge is in a bad mood for lack of a date on Friday evening, but because the prosecution asks for more time.
So why does the prosecution need more time? It has already publically laid out its case, and clearly indicated it will not be swayed by the facts. For example, though witnesses say one of men killed aimed a weapon at Our Man in Lahore, the police have decided neither man removed his weapons from his pockets and the weapons were unloaded. Okay, perhaps they were, but when someone points a gun at you, you are not usually expected to say "Excuse me, old bean, may I check if your gun is loaded?" before you take measures for your safety.
The state of confusion in the Pakistan Administration is such that while some are saying OMIL does not have diplomatic status, other administration people say he does.
Now, if we were inclined to be optimistic, we'd say perhaps a deal is in the works and the who show on Thursday was just a show to permit the details to be clinched. But unless one was at the hearing, one can't know for a fact.
The Iranians enroute to the Eastern Mediterranean Reader LD sends a link to a naval blog that suggests the Israelis may be upset not because of the Iranian frigate, which at 1500-tons is a bit of a Tinker Toy with obsolete armament, but the accompanying tanker. The tanker is a nice 33,000-tons and could well be carrying a few thousands tons of supplies for Hezbollah.
Because it is a navy ship, it cannot be stopped and boarded without a declaration of war and establishment of a maritime exclusion zone.
So, this is speculation, of course, but it might well be the maritime blog is on to something.
http://www.informationdissemination.net/2011/02/iranian-navy-exposes-us-navy-weakness.html#disqus_thread
Ron Paul on the Federal Reserve reader Flymike sends an article by Ron Paul which speaks of deception by the Fed. After providing near $6-trillion in funds/guarantees/credit over the last 3 years, the US economy has seven million fewer jobs, and that doesn't count the ~4-million new entrants. This is a betrayal of the Fed's mandate to provide full employment.
Editor is fond of Mr. Ron Paul because here's a man who at least speaks straight, whether or not you agree with him. But where on earth did Mr. Paul get the idea that the Fed's $6-tril was intended to keep people employed? The purpose, which succeeded brilliantly, was to save the sorry butts of the ultra-capitalists at the expense of ordinary people.
To be fair to Mr. Paul, articles by him we have read show he does clearly understand there is an enormous mis-balance of power between the people and the Fat Cats. Today we do not have government of the people, by the people, for the people. We have government of the Fat Cats, by the Fat Cats, and for the Fat Cats, and the rest of us can be content with the chicken bones the Fat Cats can't eat.
For the Editor, reading US comments on the people's revolts in the Mid East has been a hilarious experience. The American elite has such a great sense of humor. After using sophisticated instruments of control to corral the ordinary folk and to appropriate the bulk of the wealth made off the backs of ordinary people, the American elite tells us the people of the Mideast revolt because they have no freedom. Well, surprise. Neither do most Americans. The difference - and admittedly it is a big one - is that our "jail" is a lot more comfortable than that of the typical Arab. The Fat Cats leave enough pickings for the rest that no one is actually starving, few are really homeless, only one-fifth are without health insurance, and providing you are willing to work for sub-minimum wage, there actually are jobs.
Please note we say sub-minimum. In Montgomery County Maryland, $10 is a realistic minimum wage because this is an expensive county. But if you were willing to work for $6, or better still, $4, you would have a job. If nothing else employers would fire their illegals and hire you and me. At $16,000 a year a couple can afford a one room apartment, basic food, and a car to get to work. Forget about health care, most of the world doesn't have it (of course, most of the world gets very basic health care free or near free in government hospitals, but lets not quibble. This is more than your average Arab has,
The truth is, no one can even pretend to know at what point does the American public say: "Enough, we are now going to march on our Government and pull it down." So the Fat Cats are safe for now.

February 17, 2011

Is combating Somali piracy harder than winning Afghanistan? A US State Department official says it is. The official spoke at the sentencing of a Somali pirate to 33-years in US jail. Orbat's reply to the question is: "no, no, no, and no". What a silly comparison.
Combating Somali piracy is quite easy. You can, for example, attack and burn all Somali boats within a designated coastal area, and repeat as neccessary. Yes, innocent people will suffer. But that's war. You can land troops periodically and clear out pirate nests. You can blockade the pirate coast. You can put armed marines or sailors or troops on board merchant ships. Each time you capture pirates, you can execute them. You can maintain 24-hour air surveillance of a million-square-miles of ocean. You can convoy ships. We spend $10-billion/month in Afghanistan, and we're going to lose. It would cost no more than a fraction of that to scour the Arabian Sea/West Indian Ocean clean.
You don't need to get 100% of the pirates, or even more than 25%. The pirates are raiding shipping not because they are fighting for their country, but because they want to make money. Destroy the cost-benefit ratio for the pirates, they will stop. Its neither complicated, nor hard.
But to understand what's happening, you have to look at the matter in business terms from the ship owners viewpoint, too. Right now, it's cheaper to pay pirates $100-million/year ransom, or whatever the current figure is, then to combat the pirates.
It really is that simple, and there is no need for existential statements from US State.
Oh dear, there they go again Israel has gone ballistic at the Iranian announcement that it will send a naval patrol to the Mediterranean, possibly for a year. It will be based out of Syria. Okay, the Israelis have a right to go ballistic.
They do not have a right to demand that the international community stop the Iranians. Basically this means weary old Sam, who must keep trucking on despite his empty pockets, bent back, and general exhaustion.
But there is something called the freedom of the seas. Inconvenient sometimes, but it is this principle that allows the west to transit the Suez the other way and station ships off Iran.
Yes, the Iranians do from time to time rave and rant about being boxed in. We generally don't hear about it because the R and R is done in the local language press. When they do, everyone else's response is to say "Get over it; we're not violating your territorial waters; we have a right to be here."
May we politely suggest the same for the Israelis?
Resolving the Our Man in Lahore dilemma: Major AH Amin's suggestion He says the US should simply pay blood money for the three persons killed, without going into matters of who was right and who was wrong.
Islamic law does permit blood money, and honestly, we think its a better way of resolving assaults/murders and so on that the state taking over. If my relative is killed, how do I gain by seeing the murdered locked up for 60 years - and me paying for his incarceration, or executed? Americans are quite familiar with the principle of monetary damages for wrongful death, why not extend this principle to Our Man in Lahore?
We can, however, see one problem, and perhaps Major Amin will write in and educate all of us. The dead person's family, under Islamic law, has the right to claim and eye for an eye, and even for a family member to mete out punishment. So the minute the US makes a blood money offer, which obviously the families would rather have, the fundamentalists arrive at the family's doorstep, and "ask" them in the interests of patriotism, to forgo blood money, and to demand an eye for an eye. We know what incentive the fundamentalists will provide to the family to forgo compensation.
From what we can gather, US is telling Pakistan it will try Our Man in Lahore in the US. This doesn't resolve the Pakistan Government's dilemma: if they don't try and condemn Our Man, they will be in trouble with their own people. If they do, they will be in trouble with the US.
And from what we're being told, the US has already gone terminal on this issue. They've told Pakistan Government they're willing to wait a few more days, even a few more weeks, for the Pakistan Government to work out a face-saving formula for the release of Our Man. Failing which, the US says, it will not be a tit-for-tat retaliation: US will do its worst.
And you can see the point from the US's viewpoint. If it doesn't get Our Man back, the Pakistanis can attack US diplomats/employees any old time. If the Americans protect themselves, the Pakistanis jail them. If they don't, they're dead or kidnapped..
Orbat.com's suggestion: Our Man is so despondent in Pakistani jail that he commits "suicide". "Body" is handed over; "dead" person miraculously revives back home. In any case he's not operating under his own real name so it's not as if he has to go undercover once back home.
No, don't thank us please. Glad to be of help. Though if US Government does want to do something nice for the Editor, you all do know that - ahem - Friday evening is fast approaching and - ahem - a little pro for the quid will not go unappreciated by Editor. Oh, US Government will say. Since when are we in the business of arranging dates? Well, US Government seems to be involved in a lot of business that won't pass the morality test, so why quibble?
Berlo alert Take a look at the photographs of two of three lady judges who will try Berlo on the charge of - er - immoral activities. This does not bode well for our Fave Man Behaving Badly.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/silvio-berlusconi/8326441/The-women-judges-who-will-decide-Silvio-Berlusconis-fate.html
One of the judges is holding up "The Italian Constitution". The other is standing below a mysterious truncated slogan "Per Tutti" which means 'all along' or 'throughout'.
Just remember, Berlo, old buddy old pal: if it all goes down, we don't know you. Nothing personal: Editor is a known wussy.

February 16, 2011

Another "uh oh" moment: Bahrain So we'd mentioned the protests in Bahrain, totally forgetting the place is Shia majority though it is ruled by Sunnis. So two demonstrators have been killed, the 18-member Shia opposition has withdrawn from the 40-seat parliament that has limited powers, and police have been dispatched to Shia villages to stop demonstrators from gathering.
Another situation that could easily spiral out of control, but again, dear readers, don't assume anything till it actually happens. There's no point speculating.
In Egypt, constitutional committee appointed to write a new constitution This, and a statement by the Army it has no wish to take power, are important steps to restore people's confidence in the revolution. Of course there is already controversy about the chairman and composition of the committee, but that's inevitable. Readers should focus on the broad picture, and assume for planning reasons everything will go wrong, up to an including an Islamic coup.
If this news is correct, Hosni Mubarak has impeccable timing Several reports say he is gravely ill, others say he is in a coma, and one report from a Saudi media source says he is dead. Other reports say he is refusing treatment.
Very well done, Hosni, our congratulations. Provided this is not a cover up and Hosni is actually cavorting with the ladies in Berlo of Italy style.
Speaking of Berlo An Italian judge has ordered his trial on grounds of paying for sex with a minor, and of using his influence to free her from jail where she was lodged on theft charges. Both Berlo and minor deny any sex. In Italy paying any underage - um - lady of unserious virtue for - um - activities that don't involve reading the Bible or discussions about Descartes is a crime.
Day before, the women of Italy protested Berlo's debasement of women. They threw or held up panties. Far be it for the Editor, who is weak and pathetic reed when it comes to women, to confront Italian women in full battle mode, but if the women think they can stop men from behaving badly, they are doomed to failure. To behave badly is an intrinsic survival trait bred into male genes. if these women want a world without men, that's fine. But presuming they don't want to do away with men, they simply have to accept men's bad behavior. Sorry about that.
If men had any courage, they'd be demonstrating in the streets with signs saying "We are all Berlo" Any man who says he is not Berlo is a liar and not a man.
Oh: we forgot to add - the three judges at the trial starting April 6 are all women. Does this constitute potential unfair treatment under Italian law?
We further forgot to add: Berlo says he tries to make every woman feel special. Er, Berlo, old man, while Editor is sworn to defend your right to be a Man Behaving Badly, this blog has made part of its modest reputation by exposing/opposing hypocrisy. Be a pal and cool it, willya'? You're laying it on a bit thick for comfort.
That's the way the cookie crumbles Curveball, on whose information about Iraq WMD the US is supposed to have gone to war with Iraq, has admitted he was being a naught boy and telling fibs. Someone please rap his knuckles with a ruler. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/8326344/Iraqi-defector-Curveball-admits-WMD-lies.html
Truth is, our sources tell us (the same ones who brought us the information about the CIA Director's office toilet paper, which information we duly shared with our readers) that the US Administration knew perfectly well Curveball was lying through his toofers (or teefees, depending on where you were brought up). What you make with this ancient, hoary news is up to you.
Hints of lost Atlantis? Please read http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/google/4731313/Google-Ocean-Has-Atlantis-been-found-off-Africa.html Serious people are saying Google Ocean's pictures merit investigation.

February 15, 2011

Iran: The Home of the Green Hypocrites It requires a certain kind of blind optimism, or perhaps a really low IQ, to praise the Egyptian revolution while you're repressing your own people almost as badly as Mubarak did. But that's the Iranian Government for you. "Oooooh, the evil Yankees get theirs" has been Teheran's war cry the last couple of weeks.
Not a good idea to be crowing when just last year you crushed a people's revolt and have been strong-arming protestors who want democracy. So, no one should be particularly surprised when Iranian opposition asked for permission to hold a rally in, only to be refused, that the Iranians held their demo anyway. Naturally it was suppressed.
Other demonstrations continue in Yemen and Algeria, and the infection has spread to little Bahrain. The country has a parliament of sorts, but of course no one can utter a word against the monarch, who controls everything.
In Egypt, the Army trucked away demonstrators who refused to leave Tahir Square, but released them almost immediately. Most Egyptians seem ready to give the Army the benefit-of-the doubt, some are not, and they vow they will keep returning to Tahir Square. As one hard-core demonstrator said, its our revolution, not the army's, and they can't take it away. Precisely. Editor at least thinks the Army is perfectly aware of that and is sincere. But the economy has to be got moving again, or Egypt will be hit with a worse economic crisis than it was already experiencing, which cant be good for anyone.
Meanwhile, though the Army has cleared Tahir Square, Egyptian government workers are going on wildcat strikes, surrounding their places of work, and demanding corrupt bosses be held to account. This is not so easy to control as demonstrators in a central square. So whereas you may have a peaceful Tahir Square, perhaps the rest of Egypt is not going to be peaceful.
By the way for those who fear fundamentalists will grab power in Egypt: if you'll look back to 1979, they grabbed power in Iran - with the support of the middle-class. But right now, if a free vote was held, the mullahs would be out of a job. The Iranians have had with fundamentalists, and in due time, the Bad Guys will be overthrown. The Egyptian middle class is better educated than was the Iranian. Personally Editor does not doubt the fundamentalists will seize power in Egypt because they are the only ones who are organized. True that the Muslim Brotherhood has forsworn violence and do on, but that can change. The real question is, how long will the fundamentalists be able to hold on to power.
While all these revolutions are going on we suggest the Americans should simply lay back, and if neccessary think of England in winter. You don't want to tarnish those whom you hug to your bosom. These are nationalist revolutions in a region that has a very bad history with America. Any American meddling, such as supporting pro-democracy groups, will backfire.
65 years ago, America stopped "revolutions" in Europe, cold By 1948 it looked possible the communists were going to swallow Western Europe and Greece. Greece was saved by old-fashioned "bang bang you're dead", but Western Europe was saved by the Marshall Plan and the American nuclear guarantee. In today's money the Marshall plan was worth $110-billion, though to create jobs in the Middle East would require much more money. In Europe it was a case of rebuilding war-destroyed infrastructure, Western Europe had advanced standards of living before World War II and was heavily industrialized. In the Middle East you'd have to start from zero. Half a trillion buckeroos is probably only a good start.
So, you might say, what the heck, we spent close to $1-trillion/year on our security, we can afford half-a-trill.
Um - actually not. We're as broke as the proverbial church meeces. We need to whack at least half a trill off the security budget (in which we include State, the intel agencies, Coast Guard, DOE weapons etc etc), not add a hundred billion or so each year for say 10-years to aid the Mideast.
So its better to just leave the Mid East alone: let them work it out.
Telegraph UK says Mubarak spent his 18-days of grace securing his money. The newspaper quotes western intelligence sources. Mubarak may have between $8 and $80-billion which he/his family looted - we'd incline toward the lower end of the spectrum. Interestingly, these same western intel sources doubt the Swiss have captured any meaningful amount of money from Mubarak & Co. They imply that part of his shuffling of money was shuffling money out of Switzerland.
So: where has money gone? Our sources tell us to look no further than Riyadh.
Uh Oh! Did America just have an Uh Oh moment? Reader LD sends a link to a story in the UK Daily Mail http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1356645/A-weapon-mass-destruction-U-S--Shock-confession-Customs-officer.html which says a San Diego ports official told a local TV station that other agencies had intercepted a dirty bomb that was being moved into the US. Coincidentally - or perhaps not - US authorities have allegedly been on the highest alert since 9/11 - this we read in the online US news.
Later another official said the San Diego official misspoke due to nervousness, but if you read the story you'll see the interviewer gave the official several opportunities to back down, and the official did not.
Now, doubtless our Anglophile readers will point out UK Daily Mail is - um - a bit of a rag, more focused on - um - scantily clad ladies and sex scandals than substantive world news. Nonetheless, the paper is quite respectable as a serious media outlet, at least In Our Humble Opinion. More to the point, Daily Mail is quoting a San Diego TV station on which the port official was interviewed; Mail is not claiming this its own story.
Naturally we are in no position to comment one way or the other on the story. But if it is correct, two sources of radioactive material come to mind: DPRK and Pakistan from its two unsafeguarded plutonium production reactors built with Chinese assistance. We are not as clued up on reactors as we used to be, back in the day when Editor could spend 12 hours a day researching, reading, and talking to people, but we don't think Iran has an unsafeguarded plutonium production reactor.
You want to use Pu240 because its good for nothing else other than making a dirty bomb. You wouldn't want to use U235 because its jolly hard to make and you want to keep it for your bombs. Cut up your used fuel rods from your plutonium production reactor, wrap them in a few hundred kg of high explosive, and voila, you can probably kill a few hundred people and sicken a few thousand. More to the point, you would create the mother of all panics.
Now, we don't want to give you the impression that you just have whistle "Off to work we go, Ho Ho" while you're assembling and transporting a dirty bomb. It is immensely radioactive and you can quite easily kill the people who are transporting it. But if little things like losing a few of your own don't bother you....

February 14, 2011

Lahore affair claims first political casualty The Pakistan foreign minister has not been reappointed in the formation of a new cabinet. The reason is said to be that he refused to certify the American in custody had diplomatic immunity. Indeed, he insisted that the man did not, because his status was not registered with the Government of Pakistan.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/worldarticlelist/articleshow/7487655.cms
Algeria protests Despite a direct Government order that no protest would be allowed in Algiers, "several thousand" demonstrators gathered to demand reforms. The Algerian president has promised reforms after the trouble in Tunisia and Egypt troubles, but set no date. News sources say the Algerian protestors were outnumbered many times over by police. Several hundred protestors were arrested but it is said most have been already let go.
Egypt The Army says it will hand over power within six months or sooner if elections are held earlier. The army is focused on getting the law and order situation back to normal. Some protestors are unhappy with the Army's stance, but most appear ready to give the Army the benefit of the doubt and believe it is sincere in its promise to hand over power.
Of course, we don't see how the army could fail to keep its promise because the same people who rose against Mubarak will rise again against the army, and the general officers will be faced with the same problem: the men and junior officers are of the people and refused to act against the demonstrators. It is not as if the general nobly decided to stand for democracy; their men made quite clear they would stand aside. Also, the west will punish the Egyptian military and make it into a pariah if power is not handed over.
Letter from Eric Cox "How many years elapsed between the Declaration of Independence and the first democratic elections in the US?"
I think you are referring to a national presidential election, which did not occur in the US until 1789. There were democratic elections in most (all?) of the colonies prior to the Declaration of independence. The delegates to the First Continental Congress, which convened in 1774, were appointed by the democratically elected legislatures of the colonies, so democratic practices preceded the Declaration, but we did not have a strong national executive until later.
But, the US was the test case for that sort of thing, so while it is reasonable to expect some time for folks abroad to sort things out post evolution, they have the advantage of choosing between existing models, while the American colonists were starting from scratch.
Editor's reply Mr. Cox is entirely correct about the US. No one expects the Egyptian Army to keep power for more than a few months. It is just the Army has to be a buffer because there are no organizations in Egypt to take interim power. The army overthrow the monarchy in 1952 and immediately became an authoritarian state under Nasser and Sadat. Under Mubarak it became a totalitarian state. So Egypt has never had democracy, and Mubarak crushed all opposition. US, of course, had considerable experience of democracy on the local (colony) level. In Egypt, aside from the Muslim Brotherhood, there is simply no political organization of any kind.
US ABMs: very baffling On a whimsy Editor decided to look up the US Sprint ABM program of the 1960s-early 1970s. Thought Editor used to have a great deal of knowledge about weapons, he ignored anything to do with nucolear weapons because he did not see that an N-war was a possibility. So he didn't know much about Sprint. And what he has learned from http://www.astronautix.com/lvs/sprint.htm has left him baffled.
First, Sprint was tested fifty times with a success rate of 73%. We are prepared to concede that the tests were probably staged to give a favorable income. We are also ready to concede that the countermeasures threat of the day was of less capability.
Second, Sprint did fly with an N-warhead, but a very small one: 1 KT neutron bomb. An incoming warhead would have been destroyed by the exploding N-warhead, which would have generated several hundred pounds of metal, and by the neutron flux. The radiation fallout on earth would have negligible.
Now fast-forward to the 1990s and 2000s. ABM tests take place as slowly as a snail crawls, one or two a year. The Americans talk of conventional warheads because, they say, under existing treaties they cannot test N-weapons. Now, obviously a conventional warhead will give you less explosive power than an N-warhead, but today's conventional explosives are denser than than those of yore, and missiles can carry heavier loads. So you can pack a conventional warhead with a pretty good wallop.
But are the Americans doing that? No. They perversely want to make it even harder for themselves to hit a warhead, by insisting on kinetic kill. The comparison is made of hitting a rifle bullet with another rifle bullet.
So what is going on here? Why does the US refuse to stage - say - a test every month, and why is it insisting on the extremely demanding accuracy needed for a kinetic kill?
A near 3 kills in 4 shots under a relaxed peacetime scenario rate 40 years ago should by now have translated into a 75% kill rate in a war scenario, or at least a a 50% kill rate. Surely there have been big technology advances in four decades?
So what exactly is going on here? The only possible answer is the US is not telling the truth about its ABM capability. There are many good reasons not to. One is you don't want to let the Russians know that you swat their ICBMs out of the sky because that will aggravate them and could have led them - till recently, admittedly - to counter with even more missiles. Two is why should the US reveal its true capabilities? We've given this example before: in the 1970s US was going bananas about the Soviet Alfa SSN which, US said, could run at 50-knots. Well, it turns out the US Scorpion class of the 1950s could run even faster, but US Navy decided to go for quiet running over speed, which of course is sensible. It is said you could hear an Alfa off Vladivostok in the Bahamas. No silent service here.
Another example: as far back as the late 1960s/early 1970s US was working on a last-ditch ABM interceptor with a maximum range of 6000-meters that accelerated at 400g. That truly is mind-boggling. The US had that technology 4 decades ago, folks.
Now, you can counter-argue that look, the 1940s-1970s were the golden age of US weapons technology. US was investing enormous sums of money in R and D by the standards of the day. You can argue its quite possible we've actually fallen behind some on of the things we could do in the 1960s. But coming back to to ABM in the 1960s, you did not have the sensors and computer systems you have today. so maybe conventional warhead and propellant technology have not kept pace with other aspects of ABMs, but surely they have not fallen below what was available in the 1960s. The modern ABM has to be very much more capable than Sprint, even taking into account the much more sophisticated countermeasures.
And we are still left wondering why the US is insisting on kinetic kill vehicles.
Incidentally Secretary Gates cancelled the Multiple Kill Vehicle because the US already had in process a much more advanced kill vehicle. He cut back on the GBI ABM because again, US has something much better in the works.

February 13, 2011

Has the Egyptian army staged a coup? We answer this question because reader Luxembourg forwarded a Stratfor piece which says a soft coup is still a coup.
Now, while we respect Stratfor as a serious lot of analysts, a commercial service has the choice of following two courses. One is what we call the Stone Cold Sober approach. This approach is needed if you have corporate clients who pay you from $100,000 to a million dollars a year for actionable analysis/intelligence. The SCS never overstates its case. The other approach is Sell To The Public approach. Here you are competing against dozens if not hundreds of other organizations, and the temptation is to try and stand out by overstating your case. This is the Starfor approach when it says a coup has taken place.
Strafor's evidence for a coup is that constitutionally, if the President is ineffective, power goes to the Vice President, and if he is ineffective, it goes to the Speaker of the parliament, who has to call elections in 60 days. Since the speaker has not take over the government, and since the Army is issuing communiqués, and since the Army hasn't announced a roadmap for elections, Stratfor assumes a soft coup has taken place.
Respectfully, we cannot agree. [Lest readers wonder why of a sudden we are being respectful to someone we disagree with, please be assured it is purely for business reasons. While we haven't been able to make a deal with Stratfor to buy our services (basically they're not interested), Editor does hope at some point a deal will be made. Absent that hope, of course he wouldn't be respectful to Stratfor.]
First, the Egyptian constitution is sham document. What would be the point of following it? Second, the Speaker has no moral authority because his office has no power. It is not like the Speaker of the US House, who has 200+years of authority behind him or her. What would the point be of handing power to the Egyptian speaker? Third, if power were handed to him, he wouldn't have the slightest clue what to do with it. He is a figurehead.
The army is the only organized force in the country now that the old regime has been swept away. It has greatly enhanced its already considerable moral authority by remaining neutral in the dispute. The people of Egypt trust the Army whereas they trust no part of the old regime. It is perfectly reasonable for the Army to take interim power.
But what if the Army decides it likes power and doesn't want to hand it back? Two points here. First, if that's what the Army wanted, why let Hosni and Omar be overthrown? Why not keep them as figureheads and rule? Second, surely the Army understands that if the people wouldn't accept a Hosni/Omar dictatorship, they are not going to accept an Army dictatorship. Surely they realize, on top of that, that an army coup will invite the most serious retaliation from the west.
As for why they haven't announced a roadmap. All we ask if for Americans to go back to their own history and do a tiny bit of research in case they've forgotten what was taught in school. How many years elapsed between the Declaration of Independence and the first democratic elections in the US?
We might also add that of course the army has announced no roadmap because the army itself finds itself in a position it has never been. Do you doubt the generals are as stunned as we all are at the rapid developments? The generals need to gather their wits, organize themselves, and start talks with the people. Its unreasonable to expect that when the mechanisms for a true democracy have never existed in Egypt, and that existing mechanisms have been completely trampled in the last 30, that the army must announce a roadmap immediately.
So all we are saying: Stratfor, have faith in the Egyptian Army and the Egyptian people. Elections will take time. They will be messy. The results will be messy. Egypt is in for a long period of turmoil. But that's the way it is everywhere, with India as an exception in the last 65 years. Relax and enjoy the view in the meantime.
Intellectual Dead-ending in America One of the reasons for the decline of this great nation is, we are convinced, the dishonest mode of our intellectual discourse. Americans don't like the word "intellectual", but all we mean by it is the business of thinking, using the intellect.
Take a current example. The Government is thinking of ending Fanny and Freddie, the home finance agencies that have done much to make homes affordable, and have also done much to throw us into the current crisis. Another thought is to require more money down for mortgages and reduce the size of loans that Fan/Fred can make.
Uproar. This will make homes harder to afford, say those in an uproar. But - er - isn't that exactly the point? Thanks to Fred and Fan, a whole bunch of people that wouldn't have otherwise been able to afford to buy homes bought them, and when times became hard, couldn't pay for them. Plus, inevitably, when more people could afford to buy, the prices of homes went up. And when cheap interest rates engineered by the Fed arrived they encouraged the refinancing of homes, so that people could pay the same monthly payment but afford to take money out of their homes. This encouraged overspending; moreover, when rates go up, as they inevitably will, we will have more millions of people who can't afford to pay and yet another crisis.
In Canada they require 20% down and don't have a home mortgage deduction. Yet the rates of home ownership are roughly the same as the US's. So its a bit difficult, in view of this and the above, that if some people cannot buy homes with zero down or 2% down or 5% down that some kind of crisis will result. What will happen is that homes will become more affordable, so even with the stiffer terms people will be able to buy.
None of this answers a more general philosophical question. Why is the government in the business of making homes easy to buy, and subsidize mortgages thanks to the mortgage deduction, in the first place? This is social engineering. Advocates say homeowners create a more stable society. But where's the proof? In Europe fewer people own houses as a percent of the population, more rent. Are Switzerland and Germany, for example, more unstable than the US? We don't think so.
But whatever the good of this social outcomes, there is an equal bad. So yes, if Fan/Fred are done away with, if down payments are increased, if the mortgage deduction is eliminated, some people will not be able to buy houses. But some evils will no longer exist, and home prices will come down.
Why are not people looking at the whole picture instead of advocating for their narrow point? That's what we mean by dishonest intellectual discourse. If you consider just one point, or a few points, you can make a case for anything. The trick is to consider all points and see where the balance lies. And the pros should be considered pessimistically, and the cons should be exaggerated, simply because it is human nature to be optimistic, justified or not.
Are we going to get this kind of balanced thinking? Unlikely. We are today a nation of special interests, and we push tooth and nail by any means possible to see our interest enacted. Even if it is the wrong thing for the country as a whole.

February 12, 2011

Read Bill Roggio on how lack of qualified interpreters is hampering US efforts in Afghanistan.

http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2011/02/bad_linguists_shape_outcomes_r.php

Today Editor will deliver two scoldings One is to American media. The CIA chief was off by one day in his assessment on when Hosni Mubarak would leave, and the media was going "OMG! The CIA has failed!"
We'd like to first ask the media: you've been saying a good deal about how the CIA failed to predict what happened in Egypt. On what authority are you saying this? Do you have access to the CIA's Egyptian files for, say, the last two years? Obviously not. So it's your usual suspects we must turn to, the sources that cannot be identified. We'd like to ask one question: are you prepared to go before a court, and swear on oath that your sources were telling you the absolute truth? No? Then do not insult everyone by quoting anonymous sources. This is profoundly unethical journalism because you are asking your readers to accept as the truth what you say your sources told you. You have absolutely no standing to ask your readers that. End of the matter. Go back to journalism school, and learn something about ethics, okay? Assuming there is a journalism school that teaches the subject.
Second, lets assume that the CIA had failed on Mubarak's date of departure. Do you jokers in the media have the least idea, the tiniest idea, the most microscopic idea, of how hard it is to get that sort of information, and to be sure it's correct? No? Well, don't expect Editor to educate you. Resign your job, join an intelligence agency, and find out first hand. Until you do that, you have absolutely no credibility to criticize the CIA or American intelligence. By your criticism, you display not just your gross bloated corrupt egos, but your complete ignorance of the subject.
The second scolding we will deliver today is to the CIA Director You had absolutely no business to make any public announcement on the matter. Were you trying to show Congress, your paymaster, how clever you are? You have the right to do that. But there is a prescribed mechanism in place that does not require your going to the media.
Second, it was disgustingly disingenuous of you, when Mubarak did not resign as expected, to bat your eye lashes and say: "Oh, I was just giving the same information you all have." If you are relying on public knowledge to deliver your pronouncements, kindly save the public a few tens of billions a year and disband your agency. Thank you, but we do not need the CIA to read the Middle East press for us. We can do it ourselves and have a bit more money in our paychecks by eliminating you and your agency.
What makes your pronouncement of why you misread when Mubarak was stepping down even more disgusting is that of course you were NOT going by what the media was saying. So why are you playing these mind games? We're told your agency employs first class psychiatrists. We suggest you make an appointment with one. Your job is too important to be left to a person who has irrational moments.
[Those readers who suspect the Editor is in a bad mood because its another Friday without a date are absolutely correct. But since that is a constant condition, that's not the reason he's doing a scolding or two.]
Interestingly, thanks to reader Chris Raggio who forwarded a Stratfor article late Thursday night, we learn that the BBC Arabic service said that the speech was pre-recorded and Mr. Mubarak had already left the country. Since we couldn't find any corroborating report, Mr. Raggio and Editor decided to wait till things became clearly. On Friday Reuters reported that Al Arabiya said that Mr. Mubarak had departed Egypt with his family; later the report was amended to say unconfirmed reports say he flew to Sharm el Shiekh, the famous Red Sea resort.
Meanwhile the Swiss have moved to identify and freeze the president's assets. Swiss banks aren't what they used to be.
So talking Swiss banks, it's story time. One day in India Editor found a strange key among his belongings. He showed it around, a banker friend said it looked like a European bank safe deposit key. So Editor put it in a safe place and forgot about it.
So one day he was climbing the stairs to visit a friend in a very upscale residential apartment complex, when an obviously lost westerner told Editor he was looking for Apartment XYZ. "Not a problem," Editor said, "I'll walk with you to the right place. You are too well dressed to be a tourist. What do you do?" The gentleman handed over a card identifying himself as a private banker for a Swiss bank.
Inspiration struck. "Can you do me a huge favor," Editor asked. Sure thing said the banker. Later Editor delivered the mysterious key to the gentleman at his hotel.
Nothing happened for a few months. Then one day in the mail was a letter from Switzerland from the banker, on his personal letterhead. It explained that yes, the key did belong to a locker in a Swiss bank, and enclosed was a letter from the bank.
To summarize quickly - the memory is terribly painful - Editor's dreams of having, in an absent-minded moment, stashed a fortune in a Swiss bank, in the style of Doonesbury's Red Rascal, quickly evaporated. "Dear Sir," the letter said, "We have failed for the last fifteen years to contact you. This is to inform you that you owe us Francs XYZ for rent of the safe deposit box. This is after credit for the money in the box which was applied toward monthly charges for four years. Kindly remit immediately, Yours faithfully etc." The money required was about about five times Editor's modest annual earnings in India. Had he been able to pay, he would have gained - an empty box, on which rent would be due on the 15th of the next month.
Ouch. These Swiss bankers have hearts of stone.
US's man in Lahore Times of India, quoting ABC News (which quotes two Pakistani officials) says the US has told Pakistan if its man in Lahore is not released, US will expel the Pakistan ambassador to Washington, close its consulates in Pakistan, and cancel the Pakistan president's visit to Washington.
We can't say one way or the other if this is the case. But it seems a little excessive at this early stage to issue nuclear threats.

February 11, 2011

#Hosni UR Such A Bore So here everyone's excited that you are about to quit, and instead you say you won't be dictated to by foreigners. So the people of Egypt are foreigners? Is this the best you can do? And a minister of yours says this is not the time to lift police and press curbs because there's 17,000 convicts running around in the street. But who exactly let them escape, mind confiding in us? Sad, sad excuse.
Will your people be satisfied by your transfer of power to that shining symbol of democracy, your intelligence chief you appointed as VP? Do the people regard him as impartial or your stooge?
Meanwhile, reports say the Army has been torturing arrested demonstrators. We have to be a bit careful here. Presumably the Egyptian Army - like many armies in a repressive country - has its own political intelligence set up. Is it the Army per se being bad or a "special" unit? Is someone spreading rumors to discredit the Army? Did agent provocateurs create an unpleasant situation, getting the Army so riled up that some people were slapped around? Is there a loyalist unit commander who decided to dispense his own brand of justice?
Meanwhile Saudi King says if US cuts off aid he will not let Mr. Mubarak be humiliated, he will make up the difference.
Mr. Obama, here's your chance to show you're serious about the US budget deficit. Cut that aid off right now. If Saudi wants to be an ass by supporting dictators, be grateful to Saudi.
A Pakistani Comment on the Lahore Murder Case From Dawn of Karachi: "For the US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, a parking ticket violation is more atrocious than a murder. As a junior senator from New York, Mrs. Clinton wanted to revoke the diplomatic immunity for scofflaw diplomats who were stationed at the United Nations in New York and had racked up $21.3 million in parking violations. As the Secretary of State, however, she is invoking diplomatic immunity for Mr. Raymond Davis, who is accused of murdering two young men in Lahore." http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/10/balancing-parking-tickets-against-murders.html
Well, son, its not two innocent young men in Lahore. Pakistan intelligence says the two were after the American because "a red line had been crossed." Both men were armed, and we don't think your typical young man in Lahore packs heat. Then, for some inexplicable reason, these two upstanding citizens had just a little while earlier robbed two people of their cell phones. And eyewitnesses say one of the two men on the motorbike cocked and aimed his pistol at the American. Planning to shoot or playing games? Either way, you hardly have just cause for complaint if the other man gets you first - we've said this before, but this news makes it neccessary to say again: this American, whoever he is, must be pretty darn good to get in the first shots (four, we believe, he shot through his windscreen).
Now of course Dawn can say this man had no business spying on Pakistan. But hey, son, that's between you and the Americans. Both of you seem to have this psychotic co-dependent thing going, and Editor is not a qualified mental health professional, so he can't say what exactly the problem is. Perhaps we're biased, but we like to think if you all in Pakistan hadn't gotten into this terrorism against America business, there was no particular reason for the Americans to be spying on you beyond the normal spying every country does.
But that said, Dawn, you do raise a valid point. Mrs. Clinton does have a double standard. And you know what? Tough tomatoes. Mrs. Clinton has the explosive firepower to put Pakistan back into the pre-industrial age. Pakistan can do about this - absolutely nothing. Fairness doesn't enter into it. The strong stomp the weak. The weak get stomped. Nothing more to it.
What's that you say, Dawn? You though since the Americans are always talking about fairness they would play fair with you? Bwaaaahahahahahaha! Dawn, you are are hilarious. The Americans never play fair when their interests are involved. If you haven't figured that out, then goodness gracious, nothing we can do - we said we're not trained professionals. And speaking of fair play, Dawn: killing Americans in Afghanistan while pretending to be their BFFs while taking all the money you can extort from them is fair?

Personal Responsibility [Not a rant]

This is not a rant because we are not going to pass judgment. We are merely going to tell you about the book "Black Boy", the autobiography of American writer Richard Wright. Earlier this week Editor was put to substituting teaching for an English class, and he encountered this book for the first time. He got to read only a couple of chapters, basically those covering Wright's teenage years, which were in the 1920s. He came from a Southern US family, who were by no means well-off when his father ran off with another woman and his mother suffered a stroke that crippled her for life.
So when she had a stroke, since there was no Medicaid or whatever back in the day, her parents took her in to care for her, though they were themselves poor. The entire family pitched in to pay for medical treatment for her, until they had no more money to give - none of them were well off, either. Richard and his brother were split up because it was thought too much for the parents to look after three people. One uncle took Richard, and another uncle took the other brother.
Richard seems to have spent most of his adolescence hungry. Even grown up he weighed only 100-pounds, to little to be hired for tough manual jobs. He wanted to be in school because he wanted to learn, but if he wanted to eat properly and give money to his mother, he had to work. As a very young teenager, he worked part-time for a dollar, two dollars a week, and managed to get just a little bit more food. He was so hungry all the time he couldn't focus in school and went around light-headed. Every job he did, he left because he wanted to earn more, but the better jobs - twelve, fifteen dollars a week - were with white employers. Because he refused to play the role of an obedient slave boy, he got into trouble every single time. His teenaged years are a litany of personal hardship, starvation, abuse - at the hands of his own family and at the hands of others around him, particularly white folks. But he never once let go of his dream to make a success of himself, and he never once let himself be diminished as a person.
Editor got to read only Chapters 3-5, because that's where the various classes for the day were. So Editor had to stop at the time when Richard was 20, and was finally preparing to take his mother and favorite aunt to Chicago, where he hoped to make a better life for them all.
Now, the school Editor was at is a mixed income school. Many families are Title I, meaning low income. Some are lower-middle class and some middle-middle, though the middle-middle do their best not to have their kids at this particular high school. Nonetheless, high-income Montgomery County Maryland has ensured the school has every resource it needs in abundance, the teachers are outstanding, and there are an astonishing number of bright students who do their best to learn.
The Editor tried to explain to the kids that once upon a time, much of America was the economic America of Richard Wright's teenaged years. There was no government to help you. You fell sick, you didn't have money, you did without. You didn't have enough food, you did without. You didn't have money for school supplies, you did without. You didn't have money to buy yourself even one decent set of clothes, you went without. Family was family, you had a serious problem like Richard's mother's long illness, the family helped you even though they were as poor. Your father left the house, there was no child support, if your mother couldn't look after you, you were sent to other family members. If you couldn't go to school because you had to do backbreaking work to earn enough to eat, you didn't go to school - Richard at twenty had managed only to finish eighth grade despite all his efforts. You couldn't afford to pay rent, you quietly moved somewhere else when the landlord was not around.
Editor tried to explain that though Richard Wright's problems were aggravated because he lived in the racist south, his economic condition was all-too-common for most Americans, black or white. And by the way, the Great Depression hadn't set in yet, so horrible as people's economic circumstances were, there were about to get a lot worse.
To cut this story short: the black students, even some Hispanic and white students could identify with the racial oppression. They could feel for Richard. But the economics of the situation? Blank looks. Completely blank looks. Cant afford a place to live? Government gives you a voucher so you can rent a decent place. Cant afford food? Government is there to help. Cant afford medical care? Government helps.
But back in the day, ninety years ago, whether you lived or you died, it was completely up to you.
Right, our liberal readers will say, and that's why we have government intervention, so that the poor, the unfortunate, the disabled have a chance. Fair enough. And BTW, there was no denying that the strains on family were very severe back in the day. Now the government is our family of last resort. yes, and so it should be will say our liberal readers.
Our conservative readers will say: why should the government become our family of last resort? When you give the government that role, personal responsibility is diminished. An obvious example is that of teenaged pregnancy. Back in the day, you could not afford to let a young buck get you pregnant. And if you did have a baby, you had to give it away and let the child be raised in an orphanage. Result: people tried their darnest not to have babies outside marriage.
In Editor's last school, we had the Baby Bus. Yes, folks, society has deemed that if you are a teenager, your schooling should not be interrupted if you have a baby. So the school provided free day care - excellent day care, Editor may add, such as would cost several hundred dollars a month in the private sector. In one class alone Editor had five teenage mothers. Among his 150 students, he had three moms who had TWO kids a piece. One mom was a ninth grader - 15 years old, heavens have mercy on us. The father was seventeen.
Yes, the kids were very, very cute. If the Editor had had the money, he would have adopted the whole bunch.
But you have to ask: what happened to personal responsibility?

February 10, 2011

Egypt Reports say the opposition talks with the government have proved fruitless as government is not agreeing to real concessions. Opposition's fear is government is simply trying to buy time with which it will try to split the opposition, rid the army of "traitors", and then reimpose its control.
Further, street protests are swelling again. This reduces the opposition leaders' room for compromise.
Saddam targeted Bush, Rumsfeld Daughters Reader Luxembourg sends us this information as contained in Rummy Rumsfeld's memoirs. This news may sound sensational to an American audience, but it is not of significance in the large scheme of things. US killed Saddam's sons and a grandson, the man had to be looking for revenge. If he had not, he would be a bad father. And after all, America's sons and daughters faced death in Iraq. What's unique about the Administration's children?
Yes, the Administration's children were innocent, unlike Saddam's sons were an active part of his regime and legitimate targets. But what about his grandson, and what about the hundreds of Iraq Government family members killed in the 1991 bunker strike in Baghdad, and the thousands of Iraqi civilians who were killed in both 1991 and 2003-2010 as collateral damage?

Berlo, You The Man! [Another Rant]

UK Telegraph tells us that the Italian PM has, since 1994, been involved in 100 court cases with an average of 26 appearances per case. he entered politics in that year, and of course, he doesn't have to personally attend most hearings. He has never been convicted one any charge. You want to talk about the Teflon Don, people, you're looking in the wrong place. The real Teflon Don is Berlo.
The Telegraph enlightens us apropos the likelihood that fresh cases are to be brought against the PM, stemming from his "bunga bunga" parties and habit of "adopting" attractive young women.
One part of the Italian people could care less what their PM does in his private life, but another part definitely has its panties in a twist over the PM's lack of "morality". May Editor as an outsider be permitted to ask a question. Editor admits the law is the law, and if the PM has broken the law, its a matter for the Italian criminal justice system. But since we are talking of morality, is anyone maintaining that the women involved are without guilt? They know exactly what they are doing. Indeed, ewe read of one family where the parents are berating their daughter for not being sufficiently forward with the PM and letting other women get ahead of her in the line for his attention.
Yes, the Twisted Panty Division can say "where's the morality in paying a 17-year old for sex?" Excellent point. Mind answering a few questions? Do you have proof the PM knew Ruby The Heart Stealer was not of legal age? Do you have proof she slept with him - her saying she did is no proof, and BTW, she has often said she did not slept with him and then said she has - maybe. If she has slept with him, can you prove the PM gave her a quid for the pro, so as to speak? In other words, can you disprove the PM's contention he felt bad for her and just wanted to help her out? Or are you saying that every woman - or every man - who sleeps with a rich older person and is given money or presents is a prostitute? If you maintain that, are you saying a woman who marries a man of means (or the other way around) is a prostitute?
Last, have you solid proof that Ruby is underage? Remember, in much of the 3rd World it is very common to take a couple of years off your daughter's age to boost her prospects of marriage. In fact, in India there is a provision in the law that warns the judicial authorities to keep in mind the probability a girl is older than she/her parents say.
So what is it the Editor is getting at, besides expressing sympathy for a man almost as old as he is and who Editor believes is being victimized by people who are just plain jealous? What the Editor is saying is this: a society that links the public effectiveness of a man or woman to her/his private sex life, is going to ensure that only eunuchs become public officials. You want saints as your leaders, that's fine. Go and try and find people who are saints and are also capable of doing the job. Don't blame Editor if you're still looking when the Big Crunch comes and the universe ends.
A person's private life in general has nothing to do with her/his effectiveness as a public leader. After all, it is well-known the Editor cannot sleep unless he has read his four Teddy Bears their bedtime story and they are tucked in next to him. This does not disqualify him from being an effective US president.
[No doubt you are going to ask "Er...were the Teddy Bears next to Editor when Mrs R. IV got into bed?" What are you insinuating people? A person who cannot be loyal to his Teddy Bears is not morally fit for anything. Of course the Bears slept/sleep next to him when Mrs R. I, II, III, or IV was around or when any friends were/are around. How can it be any other way, for heaven's sake?]

February 9, 2011

The Lahore Case gets more interesting A Pakistan intelligence officer says the two men on a motorbike killed by the US Embassy employee were not robbers. They were intelligence agents assigned to trail him. he cross a red line (unspecified) and the agents reacted (unspecified as to what they though they were doing - if they were trying to kidnap him, for example, he has the right of self-defense.) Interestingly, the very first day the incident happened people in Pakistan were saying it was a meeting with sources that went wrong (again, no specifics).
Equally interesting is that the wife of one of the dead Pakistanis committed suicide, saying that after eleven days there has been no movement in the case and she feared the man would be released. So she is killing herself in protest.
Just think about this a minute. When she killed herself, the man was not released. So you kill yourself in protest in case he is released? Someone needs to make sense here. Next, eleven days and no progress has been made in the case? Hello, people. This is allegedly a murder case. There are a zillion questions from every side. Where in the world do you get progress in a case in within eleven days?
No sir. This woman is either not his wife and just an ex-random woman who committed suicide, and someone in the Pakistan Government is doing a put-up job, or she is his wife and she was murdered.
Yes, we know she committed suicide by ingesting pesticide, and that method does take hours to kill. But considering that your internal organs are majorly hemorrhaging in the worst way, we don't think a person has the time or ability or coherence to deliver political statements. And who are the people saying she made these statements? The relatives. The medical staff are reported as also saying she made the statements. But did she, or is the family telling the medical staff this is what happened? The woman was taken to a government hospital. Not very difficult for extremists to advise the med staff to say X, Y, or Z, or for a government faction to brief them.
Meanwhile, the US has suspended all high-level talks with the Pakistanis because their man has not yet been released.
Here is a very well written article on diplomatic immunity and criminal incidents Oddly its from Dawn of Karachi. We say oddly because the Pakistani media is not the first source you go to for a calm, rational debate on any issue. http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/06/a-diplomatic-tangle.html
A reader asks what we have against the Wikileaks founder considering the number of times we've trashed him on the blog. Aside from his releasing US documents we feel he had no business releasing, we were (still are) annoyed at his anti-Americanism. But we really got after him after he started claiming that the sexual assault allegations against him were put up by the CIA. That was making it personal, because he is now specifically saying he is so important that the US Government and its subordinate agencies are out to get him. If he wants to set yourself up as a Dwerp (Dweeby Twerp) and bringing the US into the picture, we have every right to take pot shots at him.
But what has the Editor, at least, truly annoyed is this man's repeated insistence that the women in question got what they asked for. Sorry, old boy, when you agreed to use a condom and didn't, and your partner says "stop" because she's worried about AIDS etc., you jolly well stop. This does not make us ultra feminists or anything like that - it doesn't makes us feminists of any sort. AIDS may not be the death sentence it used to be, but it is a very serious disease; moreover, STDs can cause lifelong problems. What this man is doing is sexual predation, and we'd be just as against a woman who behaved the way he has done.
He also has an unerring instinct to be annoying. Latest claim is that the Swedish prosecutor is anti-men. Really? Where's your proof? Have you analyzed her cases? Then he claims that the Swedes are out of control because everywhere they are just looking for battered and assaulted women. You have severely disrespected the laws of Sweden and disrespected women in general. Who the heck asked this Dwerp to come to Sweden and do his sick thing? The Swedes don't have to justify a thing to him. It's their country, their rules, and their people.
X-47 Redux In our brief mention of the first flight of the X-47 last week we forgot to provide a context for the story. even the most casual reader of defense news knows that there seems to be no sign of a new US fighter to follow-on the F-35. Since it seems to take, these days, 20-years from start of development to deployment in meaningful numbers, and there is no fighter in the pipeline, there has been concern as to where the US goes in the 2030s and subsequently.
The X-47 seems to be a strike aircraft, but we suspect it won't take much to develop a fighter from it. After all, it's logical to expect that in the Next-Gen fighters the performance is going to be put into the air-to-air missile rather than the fighter itself; to some extent this is already true of the F-35.
So in the F-35 we may be looking at the last of the manned fighters.
BTW, the US has said in principle there is no reason India should not join the F-35 program. Conversely, however, the C-130s for special ops India is getting lack a lot of advanced features because US insisted on tight monitoring and India said it doesn't want US people on its airbases. So India will have to decide if a derated F-35 is a better deal than the 5th Gen fighter it is developing with Russia. (Derated as a term usually applies to the engine thrust, we're using it in the sense of less capable.)

February 8, 2011

Wikileaks founder back in the news: A Rant

He had an extradition hearing in a British court. His lawyer argued he should not be extradited because (a) in Sweden he will be tried in secret; (b) what he did is not a crime in Europe; (c) there is no bail in Sweden.
So, people: did you know they have secret trials in Sweden? if you didn't, don't worry: they don't. A secret trial is something that good old Stalin might have arranged, and the good old Iranians and Chinese - among may others - still arrange. Wikileaks founder lawyer is highly confused, which is not a good augury. In cases of sexual assault, a Swedish court can bar the press and outsiders from the courtroom to protect the victims. But the accused gets to have his lawyers present - obviously - and the due process of law has to be followed at all levels. This is called a trial from which the public is barred, not a secret trial.
Wikileaks founder says both encounters were consensual because he had the consent of the parties to engage in sex. But Swedish law says consent can be withdrawn at any point. Is this some violation of human rights that leaves Europe aghast at Sweden's barbarity? We spoke to someone who knows a bit about laws relating to sexual assault. This person is male, so it's not some super-castrating, male-hating psychopathic female saying it.
This person said that in the age of AIDS and rampant STDs, if the woman insists the man wear a condom and he doesn't, or if the condom breaks and she wants him to stop and he doesn't, it creates a very complicated problem for the man even if the encounter began as consensual - in Europe or in America. That's point number one: at least one of the two women says she asked the gentleman to use a condom and he didn't. Point number two is that one of the ladies said she asked the gentleman to stop, but he pinned her down and continued. Our friend the expert says this is also a very tricky situation, and Wikileaks' lawyer can not count on saying "that's in Sweden, no one in Europe would count that as rape."
The matter of there being no bail in Sweden. We're going to answer this ourselves. Its correct there is no bail in Sweden. But as far as we know, noone has gone before the European Court or the World Court to say their human rights have been violated because Sweden has no bail, so we're not sure how this argument is going to play out.
Last, there is the tricky issue that the gentleman has NOT been charged with anything The Swedes want him to answer questions. We are told he agreed to return to Sweden when required, before he was let go. Wikileaks lawyer says: "We're not stopping anyone from questioning him. We just want it to be done in England". This several people have said to us is not a viable argument. One democracy cannot tell another democracy how to run its investigations.
Still further: we've said this many times Believe it or not, these assault charges are not the main issue in Mr. Wikileaks' life. Its the documents he has leaked. If he hangs around Britain, he is much more likely to be sent to the US if the Americans ask than if he goes to Sweden. What he has done is NOT a crime in Sweden: he is within his rights as a journalist.
Of course, if the US indicts him on espionage charges (see yesterday's post) and has reasonable evidence, then it's game over.

Getting the job we "deserve": Another Rant

Times of India runs an article saying that Indian MBA graduates are working in fast-food restaurants. One is quoted as saying "Most of my friends work in fast food restaurants because they're not getting (what) they deserve for what they studied.
Editor is mildly baffled. These youngsters have come from overseas to the UK to study. They have their degrees. India's economy is blasting ahead at 9% a year. Salaries are at obscene levels. Kids with good degrees are starting at salaries that in one month pay as much as Editor earned after 20-years working in one year. Of course there has been inflation, but then most everyone gets allowances and perks, which Editor did not. Why hang around the UK?
We don't see the UK owes them anything. If they stay and a fast-food job is all they get, that's their choice.
Oh, easy for you to say, the youngsters may retort. An MBA is an advanced degree. We worked hard. We deserve more. Well, it may surprise these youngsters to know the Editor also has an MBA, for which he borrowed $30,000 including books, and at which he worked for 2-years, 30-hours a week - on top of a full-time job, doing the Orbat.com thing, and finally writing his Great Novel. Moreover, Editor is just short of a 3.9 GPA on that degree.
What is the Editor doing? He's a substitute teacher for $100/day after taxes on the days he gets work, which is 10-15 days a month. Does he have a right to complain? Obviously not. No one held a gun to his head and said "Do your MBA".
Still further, Editor may point out that when he returned from India, he was at the top of his academic field, had published several books plus hundreds of articles and paper, his work was carried on the Op-Ed and sometimes on the news pages of India's leading newspapers, he dined with generals and ambassadors, and gave interviews to the media who sought him out.
Well, when Editor landed up in Washington DC, he spent six months trying to get a job. With the money run out, he took the first job he could find, as a manual laborer for the Hecht Company warehouse in Ivy City. When we say manual, we mean manual: he lifted and stacked boxes, ranging from 20 to 80 pounds each. Was this what he "deserved"?
At this point Mrs. R IV will be saying: "you're such a worthless so-and-so you deserved even less," but point-scoring aside, there is no question of deserve or not. No one forced Editor to return to US. It was his choice.
So while Editor may sympathize with the Indian youngsters in the UK in the sort of way one would sympathize if one's own kids got degrees and then had to work in fast-food restaurants, he would like to tell the youngsters there is no "deserve" in this world. Particularly in the age of globalization and massive unemployment in the west, to have a job of any sort is a blessing.
And do we need to point there are plenty of Americans and Britishers who no longer have the jobs they deserve because millions of jobs have been outsourced to countries like India?

February 7, 2011

Wikileaks may be engaged in espionage The Wikileaks meme is that people bring it stuff, which it publishes. But a US security company which advises businesses and governments on how to plus leaks says it is likely Wikileaks is actively sniffing computer networks for files it can download. One file released by Wikileaks on the capabilities of a US test range is likely stolen directly by the company. Enormous amounts of data are being downloaded to Sweden-based computers, and the computers doing the searches are Wikileaks computers. The security company says it sees a pattern of big downloads followed by documents appearing on Wikileaks. (After December it is possible that Wiki has shifted from Sweden-based computers.)
You will find the article in the Feb 7-14 issue of Business Week, p. 44-46. we have two comments, one light-hearted and one not.
First, this is a "Thank you, Lord" situation because if Wikileaks is engaging in espionage, there is no freedom of press issue, this is just plain spying, for which they are serious penalties. So just when orbat.com was starting to give up on the prospect of seeing the smug smile wiped off Mr. Wikileaks's face, there is a real chance he will get his comeuppance.
The second comment is that since Wikileaks is not downloading large quantities of data from Indian or Chinese or French or German or whatever computers, what we may have is espionage that is specifically directed against one country, the United States. That means, again, there are no issues of "the people have a right to the truth". This is operating under a political agenda directed at one country. That in turn means that Wikileaks has declared itself an enemy of the US. Which makes Wikileaks a direct enemy of the US.
Joblessness and revolution One popular narrative about the Tunisia and Egypt revolutions and the unrest in Iran, Yemen, Jordan etc. is that young people are being driven by the hopelessness of their economic prospects.
Hmmm. May be its time to remember that joblessness among US white teenagers is 22%, and among black teenagers it is 44%.
Glen Beck disclaimer: "We're just saying."
Egypt Los Angeles Times reported on February 4, 2011 that the USS Kearsarge has arrived in the Red Sea to assist in an evacuation of US citizens, if neccessary. The USS Enterprise was supposed to transit the Suez Canal into the Arabian Sea but is being held in the Mediterranean.
On Sunday there were fewer protests and much confusion because many opposition leaders have begun to negotiate with the Vice President. One compromise being suggested is that Mr. Mubarak hands over his powers to the Vice President and becomes a figurehead till his term ends; in return the government allows freedom of press and organization, and releases political prisoners.
The Muslim Brotherhood is preparing for talks with the government. This is a real and major concession by the government because as of now the group is banned and many of its leaders are in prison.
Meanwhile, just to be helpful, Al Qaeda has come out in support of the Brotherhood, and endorsement it has not asked for nor needs. The Brotherhood and other religious opponents of the government have been making a point of downplaying in favor of the nationalist angle.
Israel's own Wikileaks An Israeli soldier (a woman) in 2008 acquired 2000 secret military documents, some relating to operational matters. She gave them to a correspondent for Haaretz, who published information from some of them.
She was arrested in December 2009 and is currently in home detention. She has owned up to her offence and faces a sentence of up to 15 years. The correspondent stayed out of Israel for a year, then made a deal under which he will not be charged; he is currently in home detention.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/8306991/Israeli-conscript-faces-prison-after-admitting-military-leaks.html
News of the Weird In Colombia, an 11-year old girl and her 25-year old sister are under arrest after the girl was found with 74 cell phone and a gun as they visited a jail to see a relative. The relative was in jail for illegal gun possession.
100 Belgian students aboard a Ryanair flight were offloaded in the Canary Islands after they "mutinied" against an unexpected extra charge levied on one student's hand baggage. Ryanair's business model is very low fares combined with extra charges for everything else. Ryanair was planning last year to charge 1 euro for a visit to the bathroom when it backed down.
The students got upset and did not follow instructions from the flight crew, which called the police.

February 6, 2011

Egypt The ruling party leadership has resigned to be replaced by fresh faces. Various opposition leaders are getting together to coordinate a common approach toward President Mubarak. The Vice President (Or Stooge-of-the-President if you want to be impolite) has been meeting with some opposition leaders. This is movement of some sorts.
Nonetheless, President Mubarak has made it clear he plans to ride out the protests and leave only at the end of his term. US is 100% behind him on this.
Meanwhile, protestors blocked an attempt by two army tanks to enter Tahir Square, the focal point of the anti-Mubarak demonstrators. So the demonstrators are not about to give the army a free pass either.
First X-47 flight This is the Northrup-Grumman UAV carrier-based stealth fighter. The first of 50 test flights has been successfully completed: 29-minutes and 5000-feet. A second test article has been constructed and will fly by the end of the year,
What is the problem here, people? Sweden has banned an ad showing a gentleman in boxer shorts because it portrays men as "mere sex objects". http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/sweden/8301021/Swedish-advert-banned-for-portraying-men-as-mere-sex-objects.html
We still haven't been able to figure out why this is a problem. Are Swedish men upset because their minds (Bwahahahahah) are not appreciated? Has there ever been a man who is a sex object who has wanted to be admired for his intellect? Do men have minds to begin with?
Take a look at the model: is it likely a woman when she sees him will think of sex? More likely she will burst out laughing,
So what is the advertiser to do, feature the boxer-only clad model holding a booking by the mathematician Kurt Godel?
From reader Bob Radford "Don’t you think it odd that by in large all of the Wikileak releases to-date really don’t do us much harm from a geo-political standpoint? Everything I’ve read seems to either cast light on our adversaries true intentions or embarrass those who have double crossed us. Perhaps I’m missing one or two that shame us, but I can’t recall it. It’s also odd that this nerd wasn’t snuffed out long ago."
There are three ways to look at this. One is Mr. Radford's argument, the leaks haven't caused much harm if any. In this connection we may note a new Wikileak floating around where the British top military officer terms the President of Pakistan as a "numbskull" with no idea of how to run a country and who is corrupt. This certainly is no news to anyone. So why get agitated?
The second is that though to you and me the leak of diplomatic conversation looks minor, it has enormous repercussions because most of what is in the cables is confidential. People are just not going to talk to US diplomats knowing their words will be in the New York Times at some point down the road. Look at this another way. You are negotiating a deal with another company and over drinks the other company's person says "My boss is an idiot". Someone steals your notes and puts them on their blog. Well, no one has died, but it sure as heck is going to make life miserable for the other company's person and you are going to get a very bad name.
Third is the legal approach. The question is not if harm was caused by me when I broke the law. I broke the law and there's no more or no less to it.
The great difficulty that has emerged about the Wikileaks founder is determining what precisely he did wrong. If it can be proven that he received American property stolen by the Army soldier, theoretically he could be charged for receiving stolen property. But the Wikileaks founder turned around and shared this information with the world's press. So New York Times and WashPost among others have also handled stolen property. Is the US government going to round them up too? if not, then why is USG discriminating against Wikileaks person, particularly when he denies his organization got the documents from the US soldier.
It's likely there's some fancy verbal-work here. The soldier gives the documents to Person A and perhaps asks they be given to Wikileaks. Person A gives them to Wikileaks founder, who can then say he did not get them from the soldier. Nonetheless, what is one going to do about this?
That the Wikileaks person is a self-promoting, sanctimonious, America-hating hypocrite is, Editor feels, beyond question. If. however, we're going to - er - disincorporate him on that basis alone, then there's a lot of people around the world who need to be - er - retired, and not a few of them will be Americans.

February 5, 2011

Egyptian Attorney-General imposes bans on several political and business leaders They are not permitted to leave; and their bank accounts are frozen. The ex-Interior Minister is to face an emergency state court on charges of treason and causing a security vacuum by withdrawing police from the street.
So, people, is not the attorney-general a member of the elite? Remember what we've been saying from Day One: the assumption that the elite will back the president is incorrect. The generals have already abandoned the regime by refusing to intervene, and they're pretty elite too.
Blowing at the wind So suppose at the height of Hurricane Katrina Editor is standing on the shore at New Orleans and giving a noble speech to the hurricane telling it what to do. Ignore the obvious that the Editor would be drowned. Ask instead: Is Katrina going to listen? The answer to that is easily given in the form of another question: its Friday, does the Editor have a date?
Okay, so Editor lecturing Hurricane Katrina can be taken merely as eccentric if you are sympathetic to the Editor, or if you are not, you can put in a call to the little men in white coats.
But when the President of the United States presumes to lecture the Egyptians - which can be compared to lecturing Katrina, it's a little bit more serious than the Editor's hypothetical folly. The President of the United States not only diminishes the country by showing how completely irrelevant we are to the Egypt situation, he belittles himself. It's very sad when you listen to his words about Egypt. It seems like he's just talking for the sake of talking, and has no idea what's he's saying. It's like his handlers told him: "You're the US president, you have to say something." And he is saying: "Something."
For example, what does the US President means when he urges President Mubarak to consider his "legacy"? Unless the US President is using words differently from ordinary folk, legacy usually means something positive, worthwhile, valuable. It doesn't have to, you can correctly say "He left a legacy of chaos and turmoil". But if the US President means the words in the latter sense, why on earth would Mr. Mubarak heed the US President's call to consider his "legacy"? If the US President means the former, what "legacy" is Mr. Mubarak going to leave behind that needs his consideration?
Very mysterious.
May we be permitted to ask the US president why he has to say anything beyond a single line: "We respect whatever choice the people of Egypt make." That's all that's neccessary. The rest is the verbiage of a President/country trying to convince itself it's important.
There is only one way the US can make itself marginally relevant to the situation. Send in a plane to take the Egyptian president to his retirement home in Saudi Arabia, and make a big point about it being our plane. At some point a half-dozen Egyptians might even remember to thank the US if they have nothing else to do.
Look: the US is so irrelevant the protestors are not burning US flags, abusing the US, or asking America to justify its supply of the tools of repression to the Egyptian Government. People, when people don't even have the time to curse you out, you are truly, really, totally inconsequential.
Headlines from the Times of India February 5, 2010 "CM gives a quiet burial to YSR's pet Jalayagn"; "GAD may come up with new name for GPAT"; "Kadapa by-polls: YSR clan members set to clash", "Involving ASI for shrines upkeep only: TTD"; "TDP MLAs urge Congress to lead Telengana stir"; UID process to start in April."
Don't worry if this makes no sense. Editor is from India and it makes no sense to him either.
Another thing that makes no sense Why would you want to call your fighter squadron the "Pukin' Dogs"? That's the US Navy's No. 143 Squadron (F/A-18E), for you Brit types, and VFA-143 for American types.
Okay, Wikipedia says the squadron insignia is a Griffin, which to some suggests a vomiting dog. Do these people need psychotherapy? To the Editor the insignia looks like a mad-as-heck griffin waiting to get its teeth into someone.
What next, a fighter squadron nicknamed "The Herniated Ducks" or the "Pink Puddytats?" Another suggestion: "Undifferentiated Chthonic Beings"? Try "The Lame Canaries". No? Then let's try "The Death Breath Vultures". How about "The Chicken Soupers" or "The Decrepit Cougars"? Another suggestion: "The Wheelchair Seniors". That should frighten the enemy. We could also try "The Rabid Rabbits" or "The Lost Bunnies of the Apocalypse" or "The Hemorrhoid Wipes?" "The Naked Mole Rats" sounds pretty ferocious. Or perhaps "The Dragons With 'Flu?" Terrifying. Failing all, the "Deader Than The Dodos". Even more awesome "The Limp Noodles". A winner for sure: "The Constipated Arthralgiacs". Try this one: "The Pooping Pumpkins" or "The Black Bean Killers". Or......
[Note to readers from a group of readers: Editor has been dragged away from his computer in the interests of taste.]

How to drop $4-billion of taxpayer money into a black hole: Cash for Clunkers

Reader Flymike sends a calculation by an academic saying that for every $1 of oil saved by the Cash for Clunkers the Government spent $8.50. If the Government gave its figures, we’d suspect it might prefer this one: savings of $1.70 saved for every $1 spent.
The academic takes the barrels of oil saved – 5-million – and multiplies it by $70/barrel, arriving at $350-million savings. But assuming the new cars/trucks are used for an average of 10 years, which is a bit higher than the median age of the US automobile fleet, the saving should be $3.5-billion.
But: if you take a closer look at the figures, you will see the situation is far worse than even the academic's 1-year estimate of $2.65-billion wasted. Government calculates 277-gallons/year per vehicle, and a fuel price of $2.65/gallon for a savings of $720 per year. Over ten years that means $7200 per vehicle, or $5-billion over 10-years.
At this point some of our readers who are familiar with financial statistics are jumping up and down with their hands up and going “Oooooooh, I wanna answer that one!”. Please be patient as not all of us into financial statistics. There are so many problems with the hypothetical government figure. Lets take just three.
1. Spending $3-billion means there was $3-billion less to spend elsewhere. Calculating opportunity costs is very tricky, so lets toss that aside. Since that $3-billion did not come from new taxes, it was added to the national debt. Since we are not paying that debt down, we can safely assume – say 3% interest a year for 10 years. Compounded that’s a $1-billion in interest. So the financial cost is $4-billion.
2. In July 2009 (mid-year) the gasoline price was indeed $2.65 used by the government. But only 60% was the crude price. The rest was refining, distribution, and taxes. So we forgo the corporate and business taxes forgone on the oil producers, refiners, and distributors, plus the taxes on the gasoline itself. Then there are the taxes forgone on the income of the people no longer employed because we’ve reduced gasoline usage. Let us just say the real savings is the crude and forget the taxes forgone on the crude producers. The saving will be $4230 per 10 years, or $3-billion. This results in a 10-year loss of $1-billion.
3. Last, consider that a whole bunch of those clunkers would have died anyway and had to be replaced anyway within 10 years. If you very generously allow a 10-year life for the clunkers, they would all have been replaced – without a government subsidy. A clunker was defined by miles per gallon, but also it had to be manufactured in 1984 or later. So the oldest of the clunkers were already 25 years old in 2009, the year of the program.
In other words, the Government will end up paying $4-billion over 10 years for what in return? Zero.
Now, Government can say it saved 42,000 jobs by subsidizing the purchase of 700,000 cars. Bad argument, because then we have to throw in opportunity cost: may be $3-billion invested in something else would have saved/created more jobs. and then there's the jobs lost because we are using less oil.
Further, Flymike would make the point: what gives the Government the right to add to our deficit to subsidize people who'd have in any case bought new cars?
References: for the percent cost of crude in one gallon of gasoline, see http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/gdu/gasdiesel.asp For calculations on the clunker program see http://blogs.consumerreports.org/cars/2009/08/cash-for-clunkers-final-sales-and-mpg-results-and-totals.html
You are welcome to do your own calculations and we will be happy to publish them.

February 4, 2011

Pakistan Offensive in Mohmand District

http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/03/about-22000-flee-mohmand-offensive-un.html

We leave to the considerably better informed www.longwarjournal.org to tell us if this is a real offensive or another "Round Up The Usual Suspects" affair

Its official: pro-Mubarak demonstrators are government instigators Indeed it's so official that the government itself apologized, saying it was taking steps to ensure that it doesn't happen again. Violence does continue, but nothing like on the scale seen on Wednesday. Army continues to maintain a non-interventionist posture.
Meanwhile, President Mubarak says he's fed up of power and wants to resign now, but can't because it would mean chaos and the Muslim Brotherhood will take over. Er - yes, you're right, Mr. Prez, Sir. But if the MB does take over, and that would seem a likely long-term outcome, you'll have only yourself to blame because you so thoroughly crushed the opposition over 30 years the MB is the sole organized opposition. As for chaos, have you looked outside your window lately? The chaos is already here - because you won't go.
Also meanwhile, the de facto head of the government on behalf of the Prez, the former intelligence chief, is - In Our Humble Opinion - already making mis-steps. He says he will not negotiate with the opposition unless they renounce demonstrators. Dude, get a grip on reality, will you? Do you think that you, as part of the discredited regime, are going to set the rules of the game? The thing is out of the President's hands, and since you're the Number One Stooge, its out of your hands too. Oh yes, we know the west loves you - the Americans and Israelis in particular. But in case you haven't noticed: the people whose hands the situations is really out of are the Americans and Israelis. They have zero legitimacy, which would not be the case if you stopped making demands and sat down to negotiate.
Further meanwhile, BBC says there may be a split in the government elite. One set of officials want to forbid several hated officials from travelling overseas until they are thoroughly investigated re. their role in the past. Well, good grief. Of course there's a split in the government and a much more serious one than among bureaucrats: the Army is doing its own thing.
As reader Scott and Editor were discussing the other day, when trouble starts, a lot of people decide they'd better side with the revolutionaries because (a) it will give them chances to advance in the new regime; (b) they want to redeem themselves for the sins they committed. It's far better to have turned coat before the mobs get to your door.
Still further, can the American elite possibly concede that - gasp! - there just may a whole bunch of patriotic elite Egyptians who have sat quietly for all these years because they feared arrest and repression? That they now see their opportunity to speak up?
US criticizes Pakistan Over Its Arrested Employee The US has protested to the Pakistan Government that the employee was brought to court and his police remand extended without any notification to the Embassy and without any opportunity to be represented by counsel or even by a translator.
Okay, the US should protest. But where does the US think it is? In Brussels or New York or London? At best the US should console itself its employee is not getting the daily 3rd-degree such as is the common fate of suspects in the Third World. Again, Editor is not singling out Pakistan, the situation is just as bad in India, though its rare for foreigners to be tortured.
A story Yes, younger readers, it's story time. In 1984, Editor was working at a company when a theft of money took place - a forged check. Another person working in the company was the son of a high-level government bureaucrat. Son got Dad to call the police at a high-level. Dad said he expected the police to act diligently and decisively.
So a few days later the family of the company's accountant arrive at Editor's house, and they are crying and wringing their hands. "Mr. Ravi, the police have had our son for three days and they are beating him daily. Please help us."
Well, your truly had quickly figured out the one person who did NOT do the forged check was the accountant. Your truly had investigated a timeline based on evidence and eyewitnesses that the man never had the opportunity to do the dirty deed. So he was appalled that the police hadn't figured it out themselves and were torturing the wrong person.
So off goes the Editor to the local police station, where the Station House Officer agrees to see him. The SHO very politely listens to what the Editor says that the accountant could not have done it. Periodically the conversation is interrupted by loud cries from someone who is obviously being closely interrogated.
After the Editor finishes, the SHO very calmly says: "That noise you hear? That's the accountant being given the 3rd degree, again, and at my orders.
"But why?" asks an agitated Editor, "I've shown you he can't be responsible!"
SHO says with continuing calm: "Mr. Ravi, I may not have your education, but I do know my work. Well before you arrived here I had figured that yes, the accountant is innocent."
"But why are you beating him?" asks Editor.
"Because you thought you were being very smart by going to your high level contacts, who got after the District Commissioner of Police, who got after me, that the case has to be resolved quickly. I know who has done the forgery. So I am going to keep beating this man till he confesses. The court will throw out the case. But that wont be my problem. I will have made an arrest and closed the case. If you really want to help this man, I will give you the name of the person who has done it. You persuade him to come here and confess and I can close the case."
Editor took one look at the name and realized that there was nothing he could do. The person had excellent influence, would not see the need to confess to save an innocent person, particularly as he had done the deed, and there was no way Editor could bring him to the police station.
So Editor got back on his bicycle and went home. He got in touch with with the accountant's parents to tell them what happened. About two months later the accountant came to Editor's lodgings. "Thank you for standing up for me. My parents paid off the court clerk and the case will be dismissed."
Well, had the Editor a bunch of money he would have given it to the man, if only to make up up for the money his family must have spent. As usual, the Editor had just a couple of dollars worth of money in hand and nothing in the bank, and was way behind on rent, and every other kind of bill.
So what is the moral here? Editor is not quite sure. One moral might be that you can stand there and insist all you want that God will help you because you are innocent and God will not let an innocent man suffer. In the very unlikely event the Old Boy Upstairs is listening to you, leave alone reacting, He is likely going "Bwaahahahahaha! Are you an idiot!"

February 3, 2011

News we should have brought you a week ago

The Terrorist Al-Sadr comes back to Iraq, he sees, and flees

http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2011/01/sadrs_return_short-lived_after.php

Egypt: Orbat.com has no comment We see no significance in the attacks launched by pro-President Mubarak groups against protestors. Possibility One: these are spontaneous demonstrations by people affected by Mr. Mubarak's impending departure. Since the people who want the Prez gone far outnumber those who might him to stay, the loyalists will be overcome.
Possibility Two: Mr. Mubarak has organized the protests to: 2A - show he is popular and/or 2B to create chaos so people will welcome him back. If 2A, he will fail, if 2B, more chaos might just drive the revolutionaries over the edge and destroy any chance the Prez has of staying till September - which was rather low to begin with.
Between you, us, and the Sphinx That the tourist guides, horse, and camel people "spontaneously" joined the pro-Mubarak group because they want "stability" so they can work seems a bit far-fetched. This lot is just as oppressed as everyone else in Egypt. How many of them are going to be working after they have been beaten up, and thrown off their horses and camels, which presumably are not theirs any more unless the revolutionaries are politely saying: "So sorry we beat you up after you beat us up; you were trying only to say you have a right to work, and here's your horse/camel back.
Is there significance in the Army saying "Okay, Mubarak says he will leave, stop the disorder"? No significance, because after all, who said it? The generals who will be dismissed when Mubarak goes? A major or a lieutenant-colonel at the scene trying to get people to stop beating each up? The Army has already said it will not turn against the people. As long as the people are not harming the army, and they are not, they are exchanging group hubs with the soldiers, why should the military attack the people? And again, there is no monolithic Army. No matter what the circumstances, field grade officers will refuse to obey generals because, as we've said before, the field grade officers and Other Ranks are of the people.
When Editor used to run cross-country, his coach gave him advice that has served him well through life. "Never watch where your next stride will fall. Fix your eye on the most distant point of your route that you can see. Keep your eye fixed. Before you know it, you will have reached that point. Look for the next point. and before you know it, you'll be home." And it really worked.
Similarly observers should keep their eyes on the long-run situation in Egypt, not the daily ups and downs.
(Before someone who knows the Editor writes in to make the point and humiliate Editor, best he tell you himself. The days he sprang gazelle-like up and down the mountains of the Himalayas and the hills of New England are long gone. Now he is forbidden by ordinance to run: the various Public Works Departments are fed up of repairing roads after the Editor has done his thing, which quite resembles the movements of a Brontosaur called by his owner for din-din.)
Another reason to avoid prediction Yesterday Editor said Yemen Prez was not going to be dislodged. Today there is one crow missing from the coven that roosts near the Editor's house. Unusually, the dish of the day is not boiled spaghetti as it is 365 days of the year. We'll spare you the details.
Yemen Prez, around for 30 or so years, says neither will he seek reelection, nor will his son replace him.
Good grief. This is nothing short of astonishing. Change we can believe in and all that.
Now this is really embarrassing When Firefox crashes, which is at least twice a day in the Editor's experience, an error message pops up saying "This is embarrassing". Not as embarrassing as would be the case if the Editor managed to find a live Firefox person to whose rotund bottom he could apply his favorite belt, but then the only sure thing in life is death. Taxes, not so much particularly if you are rich. Anyway.
The only time the Indian Navy has lost a warship at sea was in 1971, when the Pakistani submarine Hangor torpedoed the Indian frigate Khukri during the war. Until now.
The frigate Vindhyagiri, a Leander class ship largely relegated to training, was a ways out of Bombay harbor on a family outing day, when it was hit by MV Nordlake. No need for heavy duty physics here: frigate = 3000-tons; merchantman = 24,000-tons. Bye-bye frigate.
On the plus side: no-one was hurt; the Indian Navy evacuated all personnel and civilians - the frigate sank 24 hours after the accident; no oil spill, ammunition on board was cleared safely, and shipping channel was blocked only for an hour. In this age of globalization, the show must go on. Time and tide wait for no woman and so on.
Here you will find the best first report of what likely happened http://www.telegraphindia.com/1110202/jsp/nation/story_13524535.jsp
Meanwhile, the Majesty of The Law rolls on. Bombay police have registered a case against the merchantman using the following sections of the Indian Penal Code: "280 (rash navigation), 337 (causing hurt by act endangering life or personal safety of others) and 427 (mischief causing damage)." The ship has been impounded pending investigations.
But a retired Indian soldier saves the country's honor Reader Aaron Kolste forwards a story about a newly-retired Indian army Gorkha soldier who fought off 40 robbers and would-be-rapists on a train - alone, and with nothing more than his kukri, the traditional fighting knife used by the Gorkhas.
The soldier, 35-years old, was returning home after leaving the army when the train was hit by a band of robbers who looted everyone they could. The soldier minded his own business, very wisely we think. But then some of the robbers started to strip a young woman in front of her parents and other passengers, aiming to assault her, he attacked the robbers, killing three, wounding eight - the rest ran off. He was himself wounded.
He was awarded India's third-highest military award for bravery not on the battlefield, and temporarily re-enlisted so he could be re-retired in a higher pay grade. http://xnepali.com/a-gurkha-soldier-who-fought-40-train-robbers-to-be-felicitated-in-the-republic-day-of-india/
This story is remarkable just on the face of the 40-1 odds and the possibility some of the robbers might have had firearms.
But look, now, people. we are going to say something that will make some of our readers unhappy. Editor is a firm believer in the 2nd Amendment as well as the proposition guns don't kill people, people kill people. But this incident is a very clear point in favor of the anti-gun people, which is that yes, people kill people, but its a lot harder to kill people with knives, clubs, whatever. In India guns are very expensive and hard to come by. If the robbers directly under attack by this brave man had had even one or two guns, the episode would not have ended well.
Editor is not taking sides: he's made it clear the only thing that stops him from owning one or more guns is the sheer expense of quality firearms, and if Editor was free to carry a weapon, concealed or unconcealed, he would do so every time he went out to buy his weekly ice-cream bar and lotto ticket. He needs to pack heat against the possibility he will be attacked by the Redskins cheerleader squad who might want him for immoral purposes. Of course, Editor would, if attacked, gracefully surrender his ice cream bar, gun, and clothes, and submit to thinking of England In Winter, but still, you get the point he's trying to make about the soldier and the robbers.
(Of course, in the US if you are carrying a kukri in public you will get arrested. More likely shot by a bunch of nervous police officers before you could explain yourself.)

February 2, 2011

Another Green Bottle Falls Accidentally Off The Wall US and President Mubarak still heroically trying to dominate history: Mr. Mubarak says he will step down in September when his terms ends, and spend the rest of his time ensuring a legal and constitutional transition. US approves. What about the point that the reason the people of Egypt want their Prez gone is because they haven't had a legal or constitutional government in three decades so it's a bit rich for the Prez to talk about a legal transition? Editor has been reproved for asking this question. "The past need not concern us," he was told. "Let's look to the future.".
Okay, fair enough. Let's look to the future. And that future doesn't have Mr. Mubarak in the picture for another eight months. Get over it, Washington.
Meanwhile, Yemen seethes but there's nothing the people can do about it. The protests have been contained. The reason is tribal politics. The Army and security forces come from loyal tribes, and they have no problem suppressing dissent. So best to put Yemen on the backburner.
The case of the American "diplomat" in Pakistan Odd news going around. US says he is a diplomat, hand our man back. Pakistani sources say the gentleman entered Pakistan in 2009 on a three month diplomatic visa which was not renewed, and he is not a diplomat. These sources say he works for a private security company.
Meanwhile, the Pakistani prosecutor who said the gentleman has no diplomatic status has been removed from the case. He tendered his resignation in protest.
Also, the Lahore High Court orders Pakistan government to block the gentleman's exit from Pakistan. One assumes the court has done to preempt the possibility he will be released. Honestly, though, there's all kinds of ways to get the gentleman out of Pakistan regardless of what the government says. Once he's back in US hands, of course.
Also, if you parse the US statements, US is not denying he does not have a diplomatic visa. US is saying Vienna Convention says administrative and technical members of an embassy have the same protections as diplomats. And, the US says, the gentleman is a member of our technical/administrative staff.
We'd have to reread Vienna, but as far as we recall you cannot retrospectively say XYZ is a member of our staff. XYZ has to be declared as such on entry regardless of the visa he holds.
So: keeping in mind our brief analysis is valid only as of this moment, it looks like the gentleman is not a diplomat, but the US has put its foot down and says give him back or else. Pakistan street crying for vengeance, but Pakistan Government in no position to refuse. Pakistan getting ready to say: contrary to what we first thought, the gentleman does have diplomatic status, so nothing we can do, we have to hand him back.
Another rumor is that the gentleman was on his way to a covert meeting, someone blew his security, and the two men he killed were either trying to kidnap him or were preparing to shoot him when he shot first. The rumor gains credence because there is no way a lone American diplomat just minding his own business would be moving around on his own in these time.
Oh yes, the Pakistanis say the car the gentleman was driving had fake plates. Be interesting to know if it was fake local plates or fake diplomatic plates. Either way, someone's left their sardine catch in the sun too long on the wharf.
But - someone else has made this point - this gentleman is good, really good. He was smart enough to know what was happening around him even though he was in traffic, and managed to kill the two others before they could harm him. Well trained and gutsy, is what we say.

February 1, 2011

The Donald Pontificates on OPEC says reader Luxembourg. Oil at $100 barrel? The Donald scoffs. There is no economic case for oil at $100, leave alone the $200 some people are talking about. It's all the fault of OPEC, he says.
Dear, dear, Donald. Love that hair, man. Envy that hair, seeing as Editor is bald. But you know what? Too much hair on the head traps heat when a man is thinking. Brain temperature gets elevated. Brain cells start to die.
The Donald is 100% correct when he says there's no justification for oil prices at $100. And yes, OPEC is part of the problem.
As, however, the Count on Sesame Street used to say ("Nine Bats in the Belfry") - But Wait! There's More!
The more is that if you take all the oil produced in the world by American companies, it's likely the biggest oil producer in the world is not Saudi, but American companies. So who probably makes the most money from high oil prices?
And even that is not all - there's still more. OPEC has been bitterly complaining that too high prices are destructive to its bottom line because they lead to the search for economy of use and substitutes. If we push the oil price to $200 by restricting demand, says OPEC, we'll see a short term massive profit, and then the oil market will be destroyed as economy/substitutes kick in. We will lose very, very big, says OPEC.
There is no shortage of oil says OPEC. There is absolutely no economic reason for this price runup.
So, you scoff at OPEC and say, okay, why is the price running up?
Well, there's the small matter of speculators. The nature of the speculative market is that for a few billion dollars you can buy futures worth hundreds of billions of dollars. And the world is awash in cash. There's hundreds of billion of dollars, more likely a couple of trillion, that's chasing higher returns.
And who among the speculators has the most money? Surprise! Those that live in the world's biggest economy, namely the good old US of A.
So people. You see once more that the Mr. Bigs gain both from the OPEC cartel and from speculation. The Mr. Bigs run the US administration and congress. Expecting the US government to break up the cartel and end speculation is like expecting Hugh the Hef to convert the Playboy Mansion into a convent.
What makes the situation more frustrating is that the US government uses YOUR tax dollars to subsidize oil profits. How? A significant part of the US defense/foreign-aid/intelligence budget goes to protect oil producers and oil lanes. Not only are you paying $3.50 for your gas, a significant part of your taxes are being spent to ensure the Mr. Bigs make even more money.
If you think about it, this is very, very clever because the Mr. Bigs are looting you and me from two sides, not just one.
And if that is not frustrating enough, you have the Greens, who are decent, god-fearing people with ideals and a real concern we should be good stewards of the earth. As the Donald has noted - and so has Editor With No Hair - we have natural gas up the wazoo. We have wind and solar technology, we have nuclear power. We have coal. But it doesn't matter where you turn, you have Greens blocking development of energy resources that would permit us to tell OPEC to go and do something unpleasant to the camels in the desert.
So we get this very interesting situation where to keep America the Beautiful beautiful, the Greens would rather the oil and gas companies destroy the environment in poor countries. If you challenged a Green to justify that, he would mumble the catechism of Less Use. We should all use less energy, he will tell you.
Easy enough for you to say that, Moe. Are you going to give up your car? Are you going to give up your big house? (Editor considers anything larger than 800 square feet for a family of four to be large.) Will you stop taking planes? Will you give up your vacation overseas? Will you stop insisting you have fresh fruit and vegetables even if the weather outside is -30F? Are you willing to live with one telephone, one TV, and one computer for your whole family? Are you ready to give up your house in that beautiful suburb, with that lush quarter-acre lawn, big trees, and great schools, and instead move to Southeast DC? Will you limit yourself to buying a suit every ten years, two pairs of jeans every five years, six sets of underwear every three years, and a half-dozen pairs of socks every two years? Are you ready to give up your Starbucks and your bottled water and your 30 varieties of European cheese at Whole Foods? Are you ready to give up meat? How about the superb and very costly medical care you insist on? Ever done an energy audit on that?
But back to the Mr. Bigs Watching the people of Egypt taking to street has led at least one blogger we read to wonder if we shouldn't have a revolution in the US. Well, that's something for you Americans to decide. But you know something? Hosni Mubarak and the other tyrants are plain stupid. They use guns and secret police and prisons and a controlled media and secret police standing on ever corner to keep their people repressed. Americans are very smart. They use TV. beer, and chips to keep the American people docile. And you know the best part? We go to work for the Mr. Bigs to earn our pathetic incomes, and then we use that money to pay for the TV, chips and beer.
In other words, we the people pay for our own repression! And even better: the Mr. Bigs who oppress us have convinced us that we are not oppressed, that we too can be a Mr. Big some day! Man, Stalin and Mao and Saddam and whomever must be turning over in their graves.
The US Marines: A Few Good Men So we all know the situation in Egypt and we know it could ignite at any time with unpredictable circumstances. Seeing as the US Embassy in Cairo probably has around a dozen marines, when you read the news that the Marines are reinforcing the embassy, you will probably ask "How many?" Fifty? A hundred? More?
Nope. 12 men are reinforcing. Apparently the USMC feels a couple of dozen of its men suffice to protect the embassy against potential tens of thousands of demonstrators.
Self-confidence is not something the Marines lack. Good people.

January 31, 2011

Egypt Orbat.com's military and intelligence sources (you are permitted to titter, giggle, or sneer loudly) have told Egypt generals if they use forces against civilians, that's it for Egypt-US military cooperation and individuals will face sanctions.
At the same time, US is STILL unconvinced the Mubarak cannot survive. US does not want to openly come out against him, find he survives, and then he becomes anti-American and anti-Israel.
Orbat.com's high-level sources (more tittering) say that many in US Administration, Pentagon, etc. feel that the US is giving this as an excuse because it does NOT want the fall of Mubarak regardless of what this nasty old man has done for 30 years. The American dissidents argue that if US does not openly oppose Mubarak, US will lose all credibility with the people and then we'll be very, very sorry.
Meanwhile, Orbat.com advises readers to ignore those Talking Heads who ponder that since now a new government is in "charge", and it is composed of military loyalists, does this mean that Army will stand behind the Prez. There is no one unified army to begin with. We've said this before: the bulk of the ORs and NCOs are drawn from Egypt's poor, the bulk of field officers come from the lower-middle and middle-middle classes. These groups have no affiliation, sympathy, or commonality of interests with the generals.
These groups are of the people, and in the last seven days have made clear they will not attack the people. They have made clear by their actions in Cairo, and by their words in Suez City where a Brigadier has openly said the army will not move against the civilians.
Meanwhile, there are reports of jailbreak after jailbreak as warders run away. Those escaping include members of the radical Muslim Brotherhood. readers will recall that before the 2003 US invasion Saddam opened the jails of Iraq, so that a hundred thousand hardened criminals poured out to cause problems for the occupation. Pure speculation, but one wonders if some of this is not behind the jailbreaks.
Also meanwhile, there is speculation that the army did not want Junior Mubarak to succeed Daddy Mubarak and there may be an element of collusion between the high command and the army units refusing to turn their guns on the civilians. If this is correct, then the Prez had had it because we could be seeing elements of regime change by the army as happened in Tunisia.
Demonstrator's sign in a photograph in an Israeli newspaper (we don't know where the demonstrator is but she is Muslim) says: "It's better to die for something than live for nothing."
Whoa, whoa, whoa, young lady! As an old person I'm happy to live for nothing in preference to dying for something. Young people are so heedless of life. Us oldies revere it, particularly our own. Of course, comes a point where you are so old it doesn't really matter to you if you live. But generally by that stage you're too pathetically feeble to go down fighting for an ideal. The big fight is getting to the bathroom and making Number 1 and 2. That doesn't sound terribly noble and revolutionary, but that's the reality for some of us.
Right after we wrote the above we read in the Times of India that because of economic and political disruptions in the Ivory Coast, cocoa production is plummeting as farmers abandon their holdings. We will be out of chocolate in 2014 and it will take three years to bring production back to the normal.
Okay, the young lady has convinced us. Editor is looking for his gun and you may not hear from him for a while because he has to go to the Ivory Coast and sort this out. A world without chocolate? Does the west think its governments will survive in this eventuality? Heck no. You think Tunisia and Egypt revolted? Wait till we in the west go to buy our chocolate and are told there is none.
Editor has just returned from looking for his gun. He forgot he doesn't have one because he can't afford a high-quality weapon. Then they talk about America as the land of freedom. But Editor is off to Ivory Coast anyway. He's prepared to fight with his bare hands if neccessary. Give me chocolate or give me death.

January 30, 2011

We are being warned that President Mubarak is our staunch ally against Islamic extremism. We are asked to remember Iran, where the mullahs hijacked the revolution and the country is America's sworn enemy. We are asked to remember Palestine, where free elections were held and now Hamas is in power. Hamas is not America's enemy, but it sure is the enemy of our ally Israel. In Lebanon, free elections have resulted in the rise of Hezbollah, which is BFF with Iran and good friends with Syria, both of whom hate Israel.
Let Editor first concede that there is a very good chance the Muslim Brotherhood will come to power in Egypt. Perhaps not today - the Army may still step in against the people - but certainly tomorrow. even the might Soviets could not stop their people from rising up against them. It is probably a good working assumption that in the next 25 years most of the Arab world will fall to fundamentalists.
This said, what precisely is America supposed to do about this? Continue supporting the dictators so that when it all goes down - as it will - we will be hated more than we already are hated? The raw truth of the matter is that America is powerless, one way or the other. The people of the Arab world will play out events according to internal dynamics, not according to what America wants or is good for America. We can not make dictatorships into democracies; nor can we make dictators stay in power. Sure, we have some role to play, but it is 90% symbolic. Those who want us to jump in on the side of the people are just as mistaken as those who want us to continue supporting the despots.
It is not that there are no good options. There are no options, period. Simple geo-strategy says when you have no options, you should simply stay out of things. Of course, asking America to stay out of things is like asking the biggest kid in the class, who suffers from acute ADHD, to please stay in his seat.
Lets back up a minute on this revolution thing The one thing that we almost never hear Americans asking is: "Wait a minute, 235 years we were the revolutionaries that the European regimes - then the only ones that mattered in the world - were deathly afraid of. We were the fundamentalists who spoke of our divine right to spread revolution. It was us who inspired the French Revolution that in time brought democracy to Europe. It was to us and our ideals that the oppressed Third World looked for hope and inspiration as it thought to throw out its European masters. When Ho Chi Minh asked for help against the French colonial power, he did not write to Mao or to Stalin. He wrote to the American President. When a wave of democratization spread throughout Latin America and Africa in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, with people rebelling against their own people who had promised freedom from the colonial oppressors but who became oppressors of their own, it was America quietly providing moral support and some times a little financial support that helped - helped, not shaped the revolutions. When Christian Serbs decided to massacre their fellow Yugoslavs, it was America that led the West in breaking up the Yugoslav mini-empire and helping millions get freedom. And yes, we fought Christians for the freedom of Muslims. So how come we have become known through the Muslim world as the oppressor of revolutions?"
So is Editor saying we have to help the Arab revolutions and let the Islamists come to power? First, Editor is saying we have no influence, except moral influence, one way or the other. This is not always true. In the Ivory Coast, for example, America is quietly support the Euros in forcing a dictator from power, and sooner or later, he will go. But Ivory Coast is the exception, not the norm.
Second, it's an elementary tenet of Revolutions 101 that the extremists seize power because they are generally the best organized and certainly the most ruthless. This didn't happen in America. But it happened in France. It happened in Russia. It happened in China. It happened in Latin America. It happened in Afghanistan.
But once we accept that all despots must fall - and that has been the experience every since Americans tossed their despot into the trash 23 decades ago - why are we worrying about Islamic fundamentalist regimes? Their time will come. Prime case: Iran. The entire country is ready for revolution - the real revolution. The rulers are holding down the people by force. How long can they hang on?
Oh, some will say, they've held on for 30 years and are doing fine. At which point the Editor has to say "Dear me." Is thirty years a long time? Well, by comparison the Russian Revolution died within 70 years. Thirty years is not a long time. In Cuba the Old Boy has hung on for fifty years. But let's be honest: suppose America had ignored Fidel, how long would he have lasted? Not fifty years.
The shining city on the hill The best way America can shorten the lives of the inevitable Islamic despots who have come to power in the Arab world and will emerge in even greater numbers is not to get involved in trying to halt the tide, a la King Canute. It is to live up to our own ideals. This is neither mysticism nor idealism. Jesus was a revolutionary. He killed no one, blew up nothing, oppressed no people. He preached, and he practiced what he preached. Can we deny the power of the revolution that he unleashed?
Real power lies in realizing our own limits. It doesn't matter what we would like to do to stop the Islamists from gaining power. If we can stop the Islamists, how come no one else has been able to stop revolutions, starting with our very own?
Instead of getting involved in the current mess, let's constructively plan for the inevitable counter-revolutions that will follow the Islamic revolutions.

January 29, 2011

Walk like an Egyptian? The Egyptian Government announced a nation-wide curfew and ban on demonstrations. Internet and cell phone links have been cut. Despite that demonstrations continue, with the demonstrators welcoming the deployment of the Army because, they say, the Army will be more restrained and more sympathetic to them. Indeed, amateur video shot in Cairo shows people swarming Army armored personnel carriers and climbing on top, while soldiers wave their hands asking people to dismount. demonstrators burned down the official party's HQ in Cairo. Drastic action against the press, including the foreign press, has been taken: arrests, beating, destruction or confiscation of equipment.
The opposition leader el Baradari - yes, the same fellow, Nobel prize and former IAEA chief - is under house arrest. The Egyptian Army Chief and several of his senior officers were visiting Washington and have cut short the exchanges to return home.
Mr. Hosni Mubarak finally gave his expected speech, where he promised more of the same. The people have a right be heard, he said, but only peaceful protest will be tolerated. He has dismissed the government and promised a new one.
At which point we are again forced to ask: "Aaaaaaaand?" The people want Mubarak to go and free elections, not another sham government appointed by him. A dictator either unleashes his security forces or he gives the people what they want. Compromises which should have been made decades ago will be taken purely as a sign of weakness and encourage the people to demand more.
One report from CNN, sent after darkness fell in Cairo, said the police seem to have withdrawn. if this is correct - big IF - then it is a very important development.
Moreover, worse trouble seems to be taking place in Suez City: 13 deaths in one day, police station seized and burned after weapons were looted, and 20 police vehicles burned..
Vice President Joe Biden says President Mubarak is not a dictator Ooooookaaaay: we're going to leave this one alone. No sense piling on Mr. Biden after he has embarrassed himself to the max. Aint no one asking him for two cents, the Egyptians might say, and ask why he all up in our bizzzness, and why he be hating on us? (Oh, Mr. Biden, notice we're talking Middle School American? Seems appropriate.)
Meanwhile, Israel is sitting very, very quiet To many Israelis, the demonstrations are a source of pride because they showcase, once again, that Israel is the sole democracy in the region.
On the other hand, there's a feeling of increasing dread. Massive instability around their tiny country is the last thing Israelis want, particularly as the chances grow by the day that a year, two years, five years down the pike Islamists are going to be much more influential. The events in Lebanon - entirely democratic, by the way - are also jarring Israelis.
We'd like to point out - without moralizing - that Egypt is Israel's greatest ally in repressing the Palestinians. An overthrow of their BFF Mr. Mukbarak is not something the Israelis can be expected to get enthusiastic about.
And also meanwhile libertarian Senator Rand Paul is asking why the US is sending so much money to Israel when America is in trouble back home. Naturally, the usual suspects have open up with the heavy flak against him, but he does have a point.
No doubt he could have been diplomatic and suggested US cut aid not just to Israel, but also to Egypt and a whole bunch of other people.
Israel supporters are aghast. We must stand by our long-time Mideast ally, they say. Of course, of course, carry on and all that. But do the Israelis accept rubber checks? That's what they'll be getting soon enough. And won't do the Israelis much good if their Number One supporter is begging on Skid Row.
By the way, anyone ever wonder just how the US ended up with so many allies? Is it because we use the right mouthwash and the right deodorant? Or is because US used to be synonymous with $$$$? Now that Uncle Hu (Knock Knock, who's there? Hu, that's who. Woo Hu, is that really you? Okay, okay, we'll stop. You can't teach kids without raising yourself up to their level.)
So we were saying, now that the Chinese have decided to dress up like Santa (only reasonable, seeing as all the Santa and Christmas stuff is made in their country), and to travel the world handing out goody bags of M-O-N-E-Y, how long will we have so many allies?
But console yourselves folks. We'll always have England. The Brits will always be our allies. They regard us like their retarded children and feel enormously guilty that when we were having one big tantrum, they packed up and went home, leaving us without adult supervision. Hey, is that seditious? Well, the Brits are not just talking the talk about cutting budgets, they're walking the walk too. May be we need to invite them back. All except Elizabeth Hurley.

January 28, 2011

US soldiers says Pakistan ISI working against them in Ghazni Province Oh oh, looks like Washington failed to keep its soldiers on message. The message is the Pakistanis are our allies in the fight against the Taliban. But, says Long War Journal, American soldiers are saying Pakistanis are training the Taliban in Ghazni Province, and pressuring locals not to cooperate with the Americans. The reality of the matter is that the Pakistanis are entirely behind the Taliban everywhere. But no one is supposed to say the emperor has no clothes. Wonder what will happen to these soldiers for speaking the truth.
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2011/01/foreign_trainers_act.php
By the way, that link will show you an official map of Afghanistan's provinces. Just four are rated as "Little insecurity". all the rest are "Deteriorating", "Moderately Insecure", "Highly Insecure", and "Extremely Insecure". But we're winning, says General Petraeus.
American official shoots two Pakistanis in Lahore A US official was returning from a bank after withdrawing cash when he was approached by two men on a motorcycle at a traffic light. He fired on the two men, killing them. A weapon was found by police on the men. The official radioed colleagues in another car. When they rushed to his aid, the second car hit another man on a motorcycle who succumbed to his injuries in hospital. The official was arrested by Lahore police.
Let's see how this story plays out.

Backgrounder: Abduction saga of Brigadier Sultan Tarrar, Khalid Khwaja

Vikhr

(Disclaimer: speculation and guesses from open sources to fill in the gaps.)

On 25 March 2010, Colonel Imam (ISI officer,member of Pak SSG special forces, served as consul general in Herat consulate during Taliban rule),Khalid Khawaja (former ISI operative and Squadron leader of Pak Air Force) and a British-Pakistani doc filmmaker Asad Qureshi were kidnapped by a splinter faction of Tehrek-e-Taliban Pakistan populated by Punjabi Taliban whose leader was Usman Punjabi calling themselves "Asia Tigers".This nomenclature appears to be for plausible deniability as it now evident that they were operating under orders from Hakimullah Mehsud. They were supposedly on their way to interview Taliban commanders Sirajuddin Haqqani(HQN) and Wali-ur Rahman Mehsud(TTP).
Khalid Khwaja appears to be the primary person of interest and focus on other two victims appears to be incidental,perhaps more motivated by incentive to milk ransom money from their families. Khwaja is a known fixer and has wideranging contacts with US,India and Pakistani establishments. Khwaja "helped" likes of WSJ reporter Daniel Pearl to get in touch with cleric Mubarak Ali Shah Gilani in Karachi to investigate trail of "Shoe Bomber" Richard Reid.
There are so many reasons why Pakistan Taliban wants him dead. Khwaja was delegated by ISI to break-up aggressive Lal Masjid(Red Mosque) movement in Islamabad where it became a headache to Musharraf(who was President at the time).Khwaja deceived Lal Masjid cleric Maulana Abdul Aziz by pleading him to come out of the seized mosque in burqa and he will facilitate his escape. When Maulana came out in women's burqa camera crew and arresting party were ready for him and broadcasted these images to whole of Pakistan to show how cowardly they were.T his dishonoured his family and to restore honour his brother and fellow cleric of Lal Masjid Abdul Rashid Aziz decided to go down fighting in barricaded Red Mosque and gain martyrdom in the process. Another pique was Khwaja tried to make peace deals with Taliban and USA.
One of the demands of Asia Tigers for release of these three people was "handing over the custody" of Afghan Taliban commanders Mullah Ghani Baradar and Mansoor Dadullah..*not* releasing him/them. Khalid Khwaja was also told repeatedly to stay away from meeting TTP leaders but he insisted.And after one of his visits, a drone strike quickly followed on Waliur Rahman Mehsud(top TTP leader) from which he escaped unhurt, reinforcing the suspicion.
Moreover, in one of his earlier peace overtures Khwaja handed over a list of 14 senior Lashkar-e-Jhangvi commanders (originally an anti-Shia militant group,now B-team of Al-Qaeda) who were supposedly working for Indian intelligence agency R&AW,creating suspicion among TTP leaders that he is instigating an infighting within the group and deliberately muddying waters.
On top of all this,Hamid Mir a militant sympathizer and a star journalist working for Geo TV/Jang News Group instigated Usman Punjabi,Asia Tigers leader that Khwaja was working for CIA and an international network of Ahmedis (pejoratively calling them Qadanis a fringe "heretical" Islamic sect which refuses to accept Prophet Mohmmed (PBUM) as final prophet which is deemed blasphemous and an act of apostasy). The call made by Hamid Mir to Usman Punjabi was tapped&was released by a PPP party LUBP website.Hamid Mir has his own axe to grind with Khwaja since he is responsible for Hamid Mir getting fired from editor post of Daily Ausaf newspaper.
The relevance of taking along Brig.Sultan Tarrar known as "Father of Taliban" by Khwaja was more of a human shield role and safety of peace mission under the guise of documentary interview since Khwaja himself has credibility issues with Pakistan Taliban.The real intent of mission was to isolate recalcitrant anti-Pakistani TTP commanders and make them focus fully on Afghanistan and US troops. They underestimated that new generation militant leaders have little or no respect for Colonel Imam. Also in the communiqué from Asia Tigers after the kidnapping, it was made clear that they "do not consider Colonel Imam as a true mujahid since he was a government employee and just following orders in helping Afghan Taliban and still drawning pension for service in the military".
On 30th April 2010,bullet ridden dead body of Khalid Khwaja was dumped near a stream in Mirali. Filmmaker Asad Qureshi was released in 1st week of September 2010 apparently after family fulfilled ransom demand.In recent days,it was reported that Colonel Imam died in custody. There is conflicting speculation that he died of heart-attack (more likely) or he was executed. The prolonged detention without harm and respectful tone in which militants communicated with Colonel Imam's family indicates that they are ambivalent/impersonal about Colonel Imam and only interested in bargaining his release for 150+ militants in Pak Army custody and ransom amount.
Now after his death by natural causes, militants are demanding $200,000 for releasing his dead body.Hafiz Gul Bahadur, Sirajuddin Haqqani, Mullah Omar and Ilyas Kashmiri have have in various capacities tried to this duo released but got death threats in return. During course of detention of Colonel Imam, a factional fight broke out between Asia Tigers group (possibly regarding sharing of huge ransom money got from release of journalist Asad Qureshi) in which leader Usman Punjabi aka Ali Imran was killed along with his five supporters by opposing factional leader Sabir Mehsud.Sabir Mehsud was subsequently executed on orders of Hakimullah Mehsud for killing Usman Punjabi.Subsequently,a channel of communication was opened by Pakistan army with TTP with Maulana Fazlur Rahman Khalil, chief of Harkatul Mujahideen (a ISI proxy India-centric terrorist group) as mediator to guarantee safety of Colonel Imam until a mutually acceptable way forward could be reached.

January 27, 2011

We acknowledge several discussions with Mandeep Singh Bajwa as inputs into this brief piece.

India's counter to PRC's "String of Pearls" strategy PRC's SOP strategy calls for building bases in the Pacific and Indian Ocean littorals. In the case of the Pacific, SOP bases are intended to keep the US out. In case of the Indian Ocean, SOP bases are intended to keep India in, and to provide security for PRC's trade lines of communication. From Beijing's viewpoint, this is a perfectly logical strategy, and there's nothing evil about it. After all, when the US wanted to contain China, it did its own SOP strategy ranging from Japan through Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Singapore, Indonesia, Brunei, Malaysia and so on. Geostrategy is geostrategy, it doesn't matter what the ideology is.
At least from the Indian viewpoint, China is doing rather well. Pakistan is a Chinese ally. China is working steadily and consistently to bring Nepal into its orbit. It supports Indian separatists in the Northeast and Maoists in India's tribal belt, though not as much as one would think. China has Burma all sewn up, and is working hard on Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Ten years down the pike, India will have been seriously contained.
So what's India to do? Readers are aware Editor has rather a low opinion of his country's military-strategic policies. He often thinks a goldfish could do better, but he can't say that because the goldfish of the world will start knocking on his door complaining Editor has insulted them.
Nonetheless, however badly it may be implementing its strategy, India does have one. We won't go into the naval part of it, except to say India is establishing naval bases an alliances with Indian Ocean states. what we will very briefly discuss is the Northern component of India's strategy, which is to bring pressure against China in the Himalayas.
Before anyone starts congratulating the Indians for their foresight and canniness, please to note the Chinese have behaved so aggressively in the north for the 15 years after the two countries decided to demilitarize their land border, that India has had no choice but to react. Let sleeping dogs lie is something the Chinese should have done, but being the Chinese, they couldn't resist repeatedly hitting the sleeping Indian dog which in its slow, fuddled, lethargic, disorganized way has started biting back. And this has shown the sheer stupidity of Chinese policy, for all that the Chinese want us to think they are so very sophisticated. The Chinese have not just pushed India into America's arms, they have triggered an Indian buildup that is going to create real vulnerabilities for them when there was no need to get into fights.
A short backtracking into the historical time machine After India's 1962 defeat, India built up a high altitude army of 11 divisions, each with the firepower, mobility, and manpower of two Chinese divisions of the time. Since China, far from reacting, actually began withdrawing forces from Tibet as the Tibet insurgency died, bit by bit India started to stand down in the north.
We could give you a blow by blow history of what India did, but suffice it to say that by 2008, India had drawn down its China front forces to the point only four divisions of the 11 would be left in the north in case of war with Pakistan. Everything else had gone into a pool for deployment against Pakistan, even as the peacetime bases of those seven divisions remained where they were.
Fast forward to January 2011 In response to Chinese provocations, India has (a) undertaken a major expansion of strategic and border roads; (b) reactivated and expanded a large number of forward airfields and air landing grounds; (c) raised an initial batch of four new mountain divisions - more will come; (d) cleared the raising of two more independent brigades for the China border; (d) begun the process of choosing AFVs for the north, not just for Ladakh, but for the Northeast as well; (e) begun forward basing Su-30 heavy strike air force squadrons; (f) started the selection process for several hundred additional helicopters; (g) cleared the creation of new air defense brigades for the China front; (h) greatly expanded its paramilitary forces for the entire northern border ranging from Burma to the Karakoram Pass; (i) begun raising two new scouts groups for the Northeast; (j) initiated purchase of heavy lift aircraft from the US, purchased 6 + 6 C-130s specifically outfitted for commando operations behind Chinese lines; (k) begun boosting the numbers of SF battalions; (l) begun revitalizing the Parachute Brigade to give it greater capability of jumping deep behind Chinese lines in Ladakh plus lay the groundwork for a second parachute brigade; (m) accelerated networking of battlefield units - the Chinese boast about their developments, the Indians say very little); (n) accelerated a major initiative to convert the entire army to 155mm guns, phasing out mountain 75/24s, 105s, and 130s, plus induction of numbers of long-range heavy rocket launchers; (o) undertaken the formation of the first artillery division oriented specifically toward the China border; (p) begun the long process needed to bring Indian infantry into the 21st Century including networking individual soldiers; (q) begun the process of increasing infantry battalion firepower; (r) increasing AWACS, ELINT, and reconnaissance capabilities in the north. There are other initiatives for which we do not yet have details.
Many of these initiatives were originally designed to counter Pakistan, but now the priority is the north. The west can keep.
India being India, many of these initiatives will take time. For example, the increased air mobility of the Indian Army is not proceeding speedily; contracts that seemed all-but-signed have had to be torn up and the bidding process started anew. The sorry state of the medium artillery program is well known, though the government has realized its importance - the first order for 8 regiments of lightweight 155mm guns was a consequence, more are to be ordered on a priority basis.
The important thing is that India is moving. Ponderously, slowly, but it is moving. A little known aspect of the whole show is that India is shifting - ever so slowly but ever so surely - from a pure defensive posture in the north to an offensive posture.
We wonder if the Chinese are thinking to themselves what was the point of their provoking India by building roads in Indian claim territory and patrolling aggressively. What cheap thrill are the Chinese getting by disrespecting India repeatedly? The Chinese had everything they could hope for in the Himalayas: an army much more powerful than they could counter was stood down by pulling several diplomatic fast ones on India. The Indians never intended to attack in the Himalayas, General Sundarji and the aberrations of 1986-87 notwithstanding. Their entire policy was live and let live. Wasn't good enough for the Chinese, and ten years down the line, they are going to have to undertake a massive counter build up in Tibet - for no reason except their foolishness.
Two points in conclusion One, India does not want to be a world military power so it spends a good bit less of GDP on defense than China. We can argue about the actual figures, but a good bit less it is. At the same time, India is growing as fast as China economically; because it has a much younger population, it will overtake China in growth rates 20-25 years down the line. So India has far more leeway to increase defense spending against China than is true for the converse.
Two, if the situation in Pakistan starts cracking up, India will move rapidly to retake Pakistan Kashmir for the simple reason it cannot tolerate a jihadi state opposite Indian Kashmir. For various reasons, which we can discuss later, a jihadi state opposite the rest of the western border is not that much of a problem. If Pakistan Kashmir falls to India, China will suffer its greatest foreign/military policy defeat since it made Vietnam into an enemy - but the consequences for Chinese expansion into Central Asia will be much more serious than the loss of Vietnam was for China's position in Southeast Asia.
Glen Beck time (Lord, we love the man): We're just saying.

January 26, 2011

Hezbollah to form next Lebanon Government though it says it does not want to rule. It has chosen a multi-billionaire candidate for Prime Minister and so far seems to have the votes to ensure he gets the job.
Shifting sands of Arabia and all that. The West has done its best to strengthen pro-western elements in Lebanon, it fought a good fight, it has lost. Best to stand down and prepare for the next round. No use for regret and recrimination.
One of the many fallouts if the Hezbollah candidate becomes PM is that Hezbollah is an officially declared terrorist state by the US. US will have to stop all foreign aid to Lebanon, weakening the pro-westerners even more.
Odd, but this rule doesn't seem to apply to Pakistan.
Egypt By now readers will know that yesterday 200,000 or more people demonstrated in several Egyptian cities. You may also know, as reader Scott informed us, an Arabic-American news agency is reporting that Junior Mubarak and his family are said to have fled overseas with 80 pieces of baggage. Poor deprived things. What they own would likely require a minimum of 800 TEUs worth of containers - just to take away the expensive stuff.
Again, as of now no one can say where this will end up. But it's worth remembering that the bulk of the people who make up the apparatus of repression are just as poor and oppressed as the people in the street. It's not a good idea to assume they are all crack Guards troops who will fight it to the death to defend the regime. The same is true of the conscript army: it is of the people. There is likely a point beyond which the army is not willing to go - in Tunisia that point was reached very rapidly, after less than 100 deaths took place.
It is correctly said Egypt is not Tunisia, it is Romania under Ceausescu. We agree. While we have not seen a definitive count, it may be as many as 1,000 people were killed by the security forces - and Romania has a much smaller population than Egypt (based on post-event hospital reports - at the time estimates went as high as 60,000-killed). But in the end the Prime Minister and his wife were caught at the border, brought back, and efficiently executed before they could become a focal point for the loyalists. It was the army that passed and carried out the sentence.
The Wikileaker In our comments about Wikileaks and the US cables, we haven't said anything about the culprit (we're dispensing with the "alleged" here). That's because there didn't seem anything to say. He is very young, and while his official army photograph shows him smiling, you can tell he is not emotionally robust. The man is scared out of his mind and completely out of place in the army.
The reason we mention him is that his supports and lawyers alleged he is being mistreated inside the Marine brig where he is incarcerated. The brig officials say he is being treated 100% by the book, and we have no reason to doubt it, particularly after the decade of uproars about treatment of "enemy combatants".
We suspect what his lawyers are missing is that a Marine brig is not, shall we say, the Georges V in Paris. His lawyers say the security under which he is confined means he'd have to break through five locked gates to escape - and he's still be on the base. This shows the poor man's lawyers are indeed clueless. If the book says maximum security means five locked gates, he will get five locked gates even if he has no legs and no arms. We do not doubt he is being harshly treated. But equally, we don't doubt the book says nothing about blue blankies, bunny slippers, and hot chocolate. The military is a tough environment at the best of times. It runs on trust, and anyone who busts that trust is considered about a hundred steps lower than a flatworm. We may excuse his guards if they don't give him service with a smile.
And none of these attempts to "prove" he is being mistreated will help the young man. He will go up before a court martial, whose officers will see no reason he should have been treated better than any of their men who broke the law in so major a fashion.
It's said his treatment - solitary and so on - is causing him to lose his mind. Aaaaand? He's not the only one in solitary. The American prison system, civil or military, is extremely brutal. In fact, we could argue that he is far better off in a military prison than in a civilian prison. The likelihood he would be assaulted, beaten many times, and mistreated in a hundred ways is far greater in a civilian prison than in the military brig.
We're sorry for this young man. But it was his choice to do what he did.
And as for the military's fairness or lack of it: supporters of the young man may want to read this article in the UK Telegraph: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8282223/WikiLeaks-US-military-cannot-find-evidence-linking-Julian-Assange-to-Bradley-Manning.html Military investigators say that while there is no doubt the young man leaked the documents, there is no proof he give them to Wikileaks. Doesn't sound like anyone is being unfair to him.
Al Jazzera does it own Wikileaks It has released thousands of documents that say the Palestine leadership was in private willing to concede far more to the Israelis than the latter have let on. Nice going, al Jazz. You've just destroyed the entire moderate Palestine leadership. Thank you for helping Hamas.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/erekat-al-jazeera-s-vicious-smear-campaign-puts-my-life-in-danger-1.339188
A mild amplification on our Arizona rant Editor was not saying that poorer people should not be given medical care. He was saying there is no agreement on how much. The care we give the less well off cannot be Lamborghini Class. The country cannot afford it, and that statement has nothing to do with being mean and selfish and un-Christian. It's a simple fact of life. The care we decide on has to be Fiat 500 class. and the way the economy is going, it could be we can afford only Vespa 150 class, or perhaps even a no-gear Chinese bicycle class.
Real libertarians like our reader Flymike will say the government has no authority to take away his money - or yours - to redistribute in support of the a goal of income redistribution. They will say let each individual earner decide how much she wants to give as charity. This is a logical argument and of course it depends on your ideological foundation.
We'd like to avoid the ideological debate because it's complicated. We'd prefer to stick to the simple realities: Government of the United States takes in very much less money than it pays out. Whether we like it or not, whether it means Grandma has to face a death panel or people have to die because they got no more than very basic medical care, is not the point. The money is simply not there. If it isn't there, it cannot be spent. Borrowing just brings the day of economic collapse that much closer, and then it isn't going to matter, we're all going to go down the tubes together, left or right, socialist, liberal, conservative or libertarian. The rich will have to flee, but since no one who reads this blog is anywhere near rich, that isn't our problem.
And Editor would like to clearly say that the stand of some conservatives that defense cannot be touched is plain looney. Threats are not absolute: we are not being attacked by aliens bent on exterminating us. The bulk of the threats we face arise because we have decided to be the world power, a goal Editor fully supported as long as there was the money for it. But when you are broke, being a world power becomes a luxury.

January 25, 2011

Moscow Bombing, Congressional Hearings, and American Muslims Thirty-five dead, 150+ wounded, many critically so the death toll could go higher. Sometimes we forget that in any incident, accident, or war, when we say "x number were wounded", we tend to think "oh, okay, at least they're alive". But sometimes the wounded are left in such bad condition that perhaps they would be better off dead. Just another day in the GWOT.
As yet there is no news on those responsible, but let's put it this way. It's unlikely the suicide bomber was protesting plans to get Russians to drink less.
Along with this news comes news from America that there is a move in Congress to open hearings on the role of Islamic mosques and religious/cultural schools in fomenting fundamentalism and terrorism. Americans Muslims are said to be terrified that these hearings will increase prejudice. Editor needs to say that in all honesty, if he was in the position of an American Muslim, he too would be terrified.
But the solution is very simple. American Muslims only have to assure the rest of America they will not let their mosques and schools be used for anti-American activity. Everyone has freedom of religion. That does not extend to inciting violence against the country. And doing a Glenn Beck "I'm just saying" doesn't really work either. The First Amendment, like any other right, is not absolute. For example, you cannot shout "Fire" in a cinema theatre, You cannot paint swastikas on Hebrew temples. You cannot in your church sermon call for violence against African-Americans. You cannot incite violence against gay people. so what's unreasonable about holding people to account if they preach violence against America?
Arizona and Medicaid Arizona says it can no longer afford to pay its share of Medicaid. In the coming year, Arizona will be $1-billion short of funds for this budget head. One reason is the recession, but another is that Medicaid as a percentage of state spending has been steadily increasing, and is now 29% of the State budget.
So Arizona wants to end benefits for all childless adults, and reduce minimum income levels for people with children to qualify.
Not so fast, say opponents. Why aren't we closing tax loopholes for country clubs and liposuction parlors? Eliminating business tax loopholes could yield $2-billion.
Oh dear. Confused Thinking Alert. First, what is Arizona going to do when Medicaid spending zooms to - say - 50% of the budget? This is a problem the entire country is facing, as medical costs eat up more and more of the GDP? We're already spending near one-in-six dollars on this item and it's only going up. 25 years down the line we could be spending a third of the GDP on health.
Second, who has decided that the money to be gained from closing business loopholes must be used for Medicaid? We do not doubt that Arizona provides many entitlements for business, but it does not follow those entitlements must be closed so that entitlements to individuals can increase. Arizona surely needs to invest in its infrastructure, its schools, yes, even save money for the next cycle of bad times. And likely they are some taxes on business it would be a good idea to reduce for greater productivity.
The thing is that while the majority of Americans agree that our economically poor brethren must be helped - and Editor's justification for saying this is the Bible - we have yet to agree, as a society, on how much that help should be and to whom should it go.
For example, supposing I have made bad choices during my life: eaten too much bad food, not exercised, smoked, drunk immoderately, and drugged. Do I have the right to insist my temperate neighbor be taxed to pay for my medical care?
Or suppose I have done all the right things, but I lose my job and my health insurance. But what if doing the right things did not include spending less and saving for the day I might lose my job and my health insurance? Do I still have the right to insist my neighbor who has saved his money pay for my medical care?
Or suppose I am a woman with three children and my husband walks out tomorrow. He's a no-goodnik and doesn't make enough to pay meaningful child-support. Is this my fault? Perhaps no and perhaps yes. Perhaps if I had known that were I to marry and have kids and end up with a worthless husband, there would be no help for me, perhaps then I would have made different choices. But in any event, do I have a right to ask that my sensible neighbor who kept her life together be taxed to pay for my mistakes?
In other words, when something bad happens to us, how much of that is because of bad choices and how much is bad luck.
Lest readers accuse the Editor of talking theory, let it be understood that in a country like India - or like China or most countries - the state does not provide security. So you have to provide it yourself. Indians save 30%+ of what they make, and if they can't afford it, they do without. Editor tried to live like that in America.
But his wife, the famous Mrs. R the IV, flatly refused. Like any other American wife, she wanted to "live well". Perhaps not like any other American wife, she said the problem was to be solved not by saving more, but the editor getting a "real job". Herself a teacher, she did not think her husband who worked in schools had a "real job". A real job to her meant $250,000 and the World Bank - she said so - and was not impressed when Editor pointed out he was not an economist, had been away for twenty years, and World Bank is not known for hiring people off the street and paying them $250,000/year,
So, when we could just about afford it, we bought a small house for $136,000. As our income increased, Editor tried to accelerate paying down the mortgage while saving. Mrs. R. IV refused. The house had to be improved. This had to be bought. That had to be bought. And by the way, Mrs. R IV was not a spendthrift. She simply wanted the same lifestyle enjoyed by our friends who had been working in America for 25 years longer than we had. The result was when she left, Editor had $1000 to his name and mortgage that had gone up from $1200 to $2000. He managed - but when six years later he lost his job, he had to draw down on savings which he accumulated by forgoing a whole lot of things which people consider essential. When those savings are gone, he will not manage.
Now, you can say this is bad luck. It is. But whose choice was it to marry Mrs. R. IV? Certainly not that of my neighbor next door, who saves so much money his house is derelict. Whose choice was it to stay in a house Editor could not afford were to lose his job for more than a couple of months? Certainly not that of yours, dear Reader.
At some point we have to accept responsibility for ourselves. And the problem with saying medical care is that we all accept a poor family should not be given food stamps sufficient to buy the best steak, we refuse to accept that a poor family also does not have a right to unlimited medical care.
The late, great Senator Ted Kennedy said before he died that he wanted every American to have the same first-class medical care that he had gotten as a member of the Senate. A noble thought, but impractical, as he probably went through a few hundred thousand dollars of medical insurance in his last days.
Moreover, his solution was butt-backward. The solution was not to give everyone million-dollar health care at the taxpayers expense. The solution was to make Congressmen pay for their own health care from their own - reduced - salaries.

January 24, 2011

President Obama Appoints GE's Jeffery Immelt as top advisor on jobs So we do understand the Prez has to do what it takes to get reelected and that's fine. But please note the irony here. When Mr. Immelt took over GE in 2000, it had 313,000 employees, 169,000 of them American. Ten years later, GE has 303,000 employees, of whom 134,000 are American.
So what exactly does Mr. Immelt have to teach anyone about creating jobs in America, seeing as he has lowered his US head count by a full 10-percentage points?
Unless we've missed the point entirely and the President does want to create jobs, but overseas. In which case Mr. Immelt is the right person.
A friend who occasionally reads this blog asked: "you attack both the Indian and US power elites for selling out their countries, but whereas you want to hang the Indian elite from the lamp-posts, you have nothing to say about the American elite. Aren't you being hypocritical?"
Of course Editor is being hypocritical. But there's a reason for it. Editor is an Indian citizen and he can say jolly well what he wants about the Indian elite. You'll naturally assume he can do this because he's sitting far, far away, but honestly, when he was in India he was saying the same thing. The sole difference is that when in India he wanted the elite shot, now he wants them hung. That's because you can reuse a rope. It's cheaper. And your average Indian doesn't have a gun, but rope is freely available.
In the US, Editor is a legal resident, which means he is a guest. US didn't have to give him entry. Because he is a taxpayer, he does have the moral right to criticize some aspects of American life. But he does not have a moral right to take that criticism beyond a point. So whatever fate he may wish for that scion of American patriotism, Mr. Jeffery Immelt, it's for Americans to take care of Mr. Immelt.
Oh yes, mustn't forget the obligatory Glenn Beckism: "I'm just saying".
The Hu State Dinner Menu - Readers Comment Chris Raggio says: "A grotesquely ostentatious meal isn't that much compared to trillions in insolvency but it is richly symbolic of all that is wrong. In other current news the debt ceiling will have to be raised soon and the federal reserve is adopting new accounting rules that allow it to show losses as merely liabilities. While they are having their state dinners I've got to earn and keep what I can to survive what is coming.
LC, on the other hand, says: "Not with you on this one, Mr. Editor. Tradition and social niceties mean a lot."
Luxembourg sends a link to an article http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=xprnw.20110122.NY34457&show_article=1 which says the Chinese pianist who played for the dinner had as one of his choices an apparently very well known and popular tune in China, which is a famous propaganda theme from the Korean War. It speaks of the US as jackals that has to be met with hunting rifles.
Truthfully, we think this news about the song is hilarious. This so typical of the Sino-US relationship: US is trying to be sincere and the Chinese are giving us the quiet finger.
Are British soldiers more photogenic than Americans ones? Three days of going cross-eyed updating the British Army for Concise World Armies 2011 - 44 pages in 11-point (at least there wasn't a translation problem) has left the Editor disgruntled and even more curmudgeonly than usual. Why? Because if you look at the British Army official website, you will see your typical British soldier is highly photogenic, and in appearance is exceedingly neat, clean, sharply dressed, healthy, and trim. Moreover, your typical Brit soldier is quivering with zest, vim, and go.
Now look at any picture of American soldiers, and you will be forgiven for thinking you are looking at ungroomed Alaskan bears who have gorged themselves on unlimited salmon after an extended hibernation, and having run through all the salmon in one river, are making shambling haste to get to the next river to continue feeding.
Editor would be grateful if someone can explain: does British Army PR simply do a better job at picking its models than the US Army, or is there more to it than that? First take a look at some of the screens on http://www.army.mod.uk/home.aspx
Adding to the disgruntlement is Editor was at the YMCA today, and giving a trim, cute Asian miss the eye and thinking of an appropriate way to start a conversation, when said miss opened a door for him. That solved the appropriate line problem. Editor said: "You are very polite." (Great opening line, guaranteed to dazzle object of the line.) Miss primly said "my parents have said I must respect old people because one day I will be old myself." At which editor was seized by an intense self-pitying coughing fit. Which sent miss running to the desk for help. Which then brought over one of the staff. Who then told miss: "Not to worry: Mr. Ravi gets like that whenever he tries to talk to young women. I've been here since high-school and he hasn't yet had a date for Saturday night. Or any other night either." Which sent Editor into another paroxysm of self-pitying coughing. But - the Editor shouldn't impose his problems on you. You have enough already.

January 23, 2011

The Hu State Dinner Menu - Another Atrocity This was the menu for President Hu of China's state dinner at the White House the other day:

D’Anjou Pear Salad with Farmstead Goat Cheese
Fennel, Black Walnuts, and White Balsamic

Poached Maine Lobster
Orange Glazed Carrots and Black Trumpet Mushrooms
Dumol Chardonnay “Russian River” 2008

Lemon Sorbet
Dry Aged Rib Eye with Buttermilk Crisp Onions
Double Stuffed Potatoes and Creamed Spinach
Quilceda Creek Cabernet “Columbia Valley” 2005

Old Fashioned Apple Pie with
Vanilla Ice Cream
Poet’s Leap Riesling “Botrytis” 2008

Sorry to get all curmudgeonly about this - we just saw the menu yesterday - but this menu is an atrocity of many dimensions.
First, when you are almost $1-trillion in debt to your guest, it does not behoove you to borrow even more money to give him a show-off meal. Mrs. Obama should have ordered take-out from McDonald's, and Mr. Obama should have used the savings to help pay down the national debt, of which Mr. Hu is the largest foreign holder.
Second, what are we trying to prove with this sissified menu, that Americans are great gourmands? You are not going to convince the Chinese of that. (The Chinese have this conceit, that they have this amazing cooking. If you have had the misfortune to have had real Chinese Chinese food, you would realize they should be ashamed of themselves, but that's another story.)
Third, when this country is in a severe economic crisis, with near 17% of the population unemployed, seriously underemployed, or having given up on finding a job, having the dinner above smells of fiddling while Rome burns. As a taxpayer, Editor has very, very serious objections to his tax money being spent in this manner. We need a government to run the country, yes, and that government does need to interact with the government's of other countries, yes. No where does it say that the dinner has to satisfy the effete palates of social wussies and pink-panty wearers.
Editor when he lived in India used to be entertained a great deal, and in his turn used to entertain a great deal - rich people, ambassadors, top journalists, famous academics, the whole nine meters (whatever that means). Many was the time he was treated to multi-course meals. That was what his hosts could afford, In his turn, Editor used to spend what he could afford. Usually that meant a couple of bottles of cheap Indian beer, an entre of sausages and mashed potatoes, and oranges for desert. Sometimes guests might even get Irish Stew, if the Editor was flush. And you know what? No one complained. No one stopped inviting him or stopped coming to his house. They understood this what Editor could afford, and they appreciated he didn't put on a pathetic show to try impress them.
Mr. President and Mrs. First Lady: next time you have a state dinner, kindly let Editor set the menu. It will be pasta, ketchup, and grated Kraft cheese, with watermelon for desert. This the country can afford. Moreover, that's what the Editor happily eats each day. If it's good enough for him, it's good enough for uppity heads of state. And if they don't like the menu, let them stay home. We Iowans are the friendliest people on earth, but we tend to dislike people who think they're better than us. That includes people who have to be served "D’Anjou Pear Salad with Farmstead Goat Cheese, Fennel, Black Walnuts, and White Balsamic". In Iowa we don't serve pigs that slop: we do not believe in mistreating our pigs.
Surprise: South Sudan votes for independence With 83% of the vote counted in South Sudan, plus 100% of the vote among south Sudanese who live in North Sudan and in eight foreign countries, 98.6% of voters have opted for independence. The results will be officially announced next month. So us geography-challenged Americans will have to learn the name of a new country. Editor is not insulting anyone here: even he has trouble naming every single African country. Its a big place, Africa.
Meanwhile, reader Marcopetroni sends news that after 100 days - which is almost seven month - the Belgians are yet to form a government. The Dutch and the French parts of the country have been at odds for some years, and while it's not clear to us there is any serious chance of a split, no one will be surprised if that happens.
Paradoxically, its the growth of unified Europe that makes splits possible. Nation states were formed for self-protection and trade, but when there's no enemies, many people start wondering if they need to continue cohabiting. As for trade, the EU is a single bloc so that's no longer an imperative between different parts of a country. After all Czechoslovakia split, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldavia, Georgia became independent, FRY became seven countries and Bosnia-Herzegovina is likely to split, and the British don't get all freaked out anymore if independence minded people in Wales, Northern Ireland say they want to leave Super Mom Britannia.
Germany is a reverse example. No need to note the irony: as Europe breaks up into smaller units, Germany reunifies, and what Germany could not win by military force, it has won peacefully. Such is history.

January 22, 2011

ROK scores one in the GWOT Yes, Somalia hijackers are very much part of the global terror problem, and South Korea today struck a highly impressive blow against them. A ROK naval warship boarded a South Korean freighter seized by pirates and rescued the crew. Eight pirates were killed and five captured. The crew are safe; the captain suffered a gunshot wound to the stomach but is not in danger.
But: here is an interesting twist. The ROK destroyer struck after a bunch of pirates left the ROK ship to attack a Mongolian ship. The destroyer sent a helicopter and commandos to aid the Mongolian ship.
ROK Navy worked with US 5th Fleet in coordinated the operation and a US destroyer assisted.
As long as western shipping companies are permitted to pay ransoms for release of their ships, pirates will hijack ships. The west has been taking this paying off business as the lesser of two evils. The result is that while you have what may be the biggest joint naval operation at sea outside of the Afghan war, the piracy problem is getting worse and worse.
True that the Somali pirates are not making a political statement. But Al-Shabab takes its cut of ransoms, so the west is funding its own terrorist enemies.
Pakistan President said considering US security guards for himself and several other high-ranking. persons. This in the wake of the murder of the Punjab governor by his bodyguard. The original source is a Pakistan media source, http://tribune.com.pk but we didn't see the story on a quick search. You can read the report at http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/American-security-guards-for-Zardaris-security/articleshow/7318247.cms
Before we comment, let us clearly say we are obviously not in the position where the Pakistan president finds himself. Editor's life is not in danger (except possibly from sheer boredom). Nor does Editor have bodyguards, and it must be about the worst thing to have to look at your bodyguards and wonder if one of them is going to kill you today. So we are not passing any moral judgments here.
At the same time, how is this going to look to the ordinary Pakistani? When you have to hire mercenaries to protect you, have you not lost legitimacy in the eyes of your people? And when ordinary Pakistanis are having a hard time meeting living expenses, how well will it go over to pay $3-500,000 per year per man hired from some top US security company? What happens when the American security men, working on a hair-trigger, kill innocent Pakistanis? After all, the only way to provide good security against killers who do not care if they are killed or caught is to shoot first and ask questions later.
First serving 3-star general in India's history found guilty by court-martial A historical first, and not one any Indian will be proud of. The officer in the case conspired "to aid the transfer of the 71-acre Chumta tea estate adjacent to Sukna military station to (a) real estate developer ... on the pretext of opening an educational institute affiliated to the Ajmer-based Mayo College, in complete disregard of all security and other norms." The quote is from a story by Rajit Pandit, Times of India, online edition Jan 22, 2011, 02.28am IST. A second three-star officer also faces court-martial, but he escapes the dubious distinction of being second serving officer as he has retired.
We asked our South Asia correspondent Mandeep Singh Bajwa about this and other scandals involving the senior-most service officers. Mandeep made it quite clear he was so disgusted he didn't want to talk about it, but briefly said two factors were to blame. One, the politicians have become so openly corrupt that public morality in general is on the wane. Two, there was a time when a senior service officer had a decent salary and much status. Now he has neither status nor money in a society focused entirely on making money and where status is judged by your annual income. When everyone around you is making a ton-and-a-half of money, it becomes difficult to avoid temptation.
What Editor finds odd in this context is the widespread assumption among Western intellectuals that economic development is hindered by corruption. But you have China and India, with their very high levels of corruption (Indeed, China puts India to shame in this regard), and yet these are very fast growing economies.
What also seems strange is that if you take the US, you have massive high-level political corruption - the US has cleverly legalized it - but on the bureaucratic level that affects ordinary people, you have a pretty high degree of honesty. Big disconnect. Just a thought.
Swiss banker and Wikileaks we'd mentioned the other day that the Swiss banker who has leaked documents to Wikileaks was tried and found guilty in another leak case. he breached Swiss bank secrecy by turning over private information to the Swiss tax authorities.
Now we learn he is under arrest in the Wikileaks case. The police have to either show a judge they have sufficient evidence to hold him, or they have to let him go, so it remains to be seen how this plays out.

January 21, 2011

More evidence of End Times: Ozzie beer consumption dropping, wine increasing The Ozzies are doing a France, says UK Telegraph. Beer guzzling is down 50%, wine drinking is up 300%. If this trend continues, by 2021 Oz will be drinking more wine than beer. In 1957 Ozzies drank 190-liters of beer a year. The now drink 107. Wine is up three times in the same period.
Now look, people, we do know that the image of the ruff-tuff Ozzie who wrestles alligators and takes beer breaks while the alligator is trying to clear its head is grossly overdone. For decades we have known that Ozzies are as likely to to to bed hugging a Teddy Bear instead of a Sheila. Most Ozzies avoid the outdoors like the plague - can't blame them, it's pretty miserable outside.
But illusions are important as a reason to carry on life. Looking at how the American male has now become a castrato, one could at least console oneself by saying: "Well, in Oz the men are still real men: they attached IV tubes to their arms to get a steady quota of beer, and carrying around a 42-gallon beer keg on their back makes them tough." Indeed, the real men do not deign to carry around a 42-gallon beer keg on their back. They attach a 42-gallon keg to each arm just to show how tough they are.
How are we supposed to console oneself when we are told beer drinking has halved and wine consumption has tripled?
This definitely seems an occasion to throw up one hands to heaven, and cry out: "Take me now, Lord, I can't take it anymore."
Talking about Ozzies, as is well known Ms. Nicole Kidman was substantially taller than Mr. Tom Cruise. Mr. Cruise's height is a closely guarded secret, with actuals of 5' 5" to 5'6" commonly assumed as opposed to Mr. Cruise's claimed 5' 9". Ms. Kidman is 5' 11". So anyone could have told you that wouldn't work. Now we see a picture of Ms. Kidman with Mr. Keith Urban. Ay-up, same problem. She's a lot taller than he is. Expect a divorce soon.
(Editor is 5' 6" if he stands on the Verizon White Pages book - on tip toes. So he's not running down short people. There are times when being short is useful. if you are on the Washington DC Metro at rush hour, people are so tightly packed they cannot bend down to see which station they're at. That's when everyone gets very polite to the Editor because he can see just fine. Yes, the Metro train operator is supposed to call out stations. But "Tmprk" for "Takoma Park and "JdrySqr" for "Judiciary Square" are not helpful. Long before kids started dropping vowels to txt, Metro train operators were already doing it.)
Um - Study shows memorizing facts helps learning according to a paper in Science. Well, Editor has conducted his own survey and this is what he finds: round wheels produce less friction than square wheels.
Americans have amazingly peculiar ideas about K-12 education, and for at least the last 30 years they've decided that understanding concepts is more important to learning than rote. After 30 years of nothing working, of a sudden someone has figured the old way was best. You see, you can understand concepts all you like, but if you have no facts on which to build your concepts, you cannot learn. The way we learn to bicycle, for example, is not by studying the theory of the thing. We do it by getting on the goshdarn thing, crashing about ten times, followed by the magical moment you are actually cycling. after that if you want to sit down and learn theory, you have practical experience to hang your theory from. similarly, we don't learn to drive cars by studying mechanics and so on. we learn it by rote.
Now the problem is going to be that the way we have brought up our children and grandchildren, they have very, very short attention spans. It's got to do with advertising. We may have reached the point that by the time you give me your 9th Grader for Math, she absolutely cannot memorize anything, and it's not her fault. when you have kids who cannot recite the 2-times table to 20, but have to use calculator, we're all in trouble. Why? Because without memorizing you do not know if you used the calculator correctly. So all the time I am dealing with "but the calculator says..." if I point out that 2 times 20 is not 45.
We tried to get the paper from Science, or at least a summary. No luck. The researches personal URL at Purdue is http://memory.psych.purdue.edu/karpicke/ He specializes in human learning and memory. Fpr a 2009 paper on the same subject by the researcher, see http://memory.psych.purdue.edu/downloads/Chronicle_Close_The_Book.pdf
Brief briefs UN authorizes 2000 more troops for its Ivory Coast mission as a way of providing better security to the opposition and of persuading the ruler, who rigged the election, to quit.
Trouble continues in Tunisia, but the government removes the ban on all opposition parties and starts releasing political prisoners. This will of course see a jump in the influence of banned Islamists, but there's no way to avoid that. The protests have turned peaceful.
Thai rebels attacked an army base - as they periodically do - and killed four soldiers. Forty insurgents overran the base and seized 50 weapons and 5000 rounds of ammunition.
In Lebanon the Prime Minister Mr. Harari refuses to bow out of a new government, which seems to be Hezbollah demand - dropping the sealed indictments now turned in by a UN tribunal would be preferable for Hezb and they would let Harari stay. But this way he has upped the ante. The other day hezb carried out an unarmed drill in Lebanon to test its ability to seize the capital.
China pumped $1.6-trillion dollars extra credit into its economy in 2010 equal to a third of GDP. And here globally people have been criticizing the US's extra $600-billion, 4% stimulus.

January 20, 2011

UK's BAE working on adaptive tank camouflage BAE says it requires about five years to make a practical version of its experimental adaptive tank camouflage. You can apparently disguise your tank as a Ford Focus or even - er - a cow. Since this is a little bizarre, best you read the article for yourself in UK's New Scientist. http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20927954.800-chameleon-tanks-blend-into-background.html
We'd once related, in this update, the story of Lord Lovatt the famous British commando and a cow that arrived on a British landing craft from England to Normandy in 1944. The reason no one did anything to stop the cow from boarding and disembarking is that the Brits assumed it was a disguised American tank, and were suitably impressed when the cow pooped up their landing craft, exclaiming how perfect was the American disguise. Clearly the clever chap that came up with BAE's idea is familiar with this particular Lord Lovatt story.
Inevitably, someone has written the New Scientist to complain n this is a terrible idea: he does not want some soldier letting an ATGM fly at one of his cows thinking it's a disguised tank. But this is not actually as serious a problem as you might think. It's just the logical next step to develop adaptive camouflage for the car, making the cow look like a hot, teen-age girlfriend of the Italian Prime Minister, Mr. Berlusconi. Cow lovers, no need to thank us: you can have the idea for free.
Talking about our good friend Berlo, now the Milan police are after his life. They've been secretly recording his sex orgies for more than a year, and there are people saying at least one of the ladies of - un - easy virtue - who flock to these parties was a minor at the time. The police have also uncovered no fewer than 14 apartments/houses where Berlo keeps some of his girlfriends.
Now, we realize that Italy is a predominantly Catholic country, and many people are not amused by Berlo's antics, which seem to go on and on. He's a billionaire so he can afford a few antics now and then. Though there have been questions asked if the Italian PM has been using state assets to support his party babe-addiction, for instance, to fly women around and to intervene in the then teen-aged lady's residential visa case. The man is 74, so Editor, at least, magnanimously can forgive him wanting a bit of fun before the check-out crew arrives.
A Wikileaks-related arrest So this Swiss banker decided he was sick of Swiss bank secrecy and handed over to the Swiss tax authorities details on people's accounts. A court has fine him a modest sum with no time to be served.
This same person on Monday handed over to Wikileaks a bunch of bank data. Will Wikileaks publish? Hard to say. We've mentioned earlier that corporation data is considered proprietary, so stealing it or having it in your possession is possession of stolen property. So Wikileaks may think twice before publishing the information; on the other hand, they may simply not think things through and publish. (A truly balanced analysis such as can be made by an intelligent chimp: Wikileaks might, or it might not. We are impressed with ourselves.)
The right to arm bears We are all for this right, but we're wondering why a German manufacturer decided it just had to show a 40mm grenade machine gun (350 rounds per minute) at the Las Vegas Gun Show is a bit confusing. Several countries use the same weapon. Defense Industry Daily says the Canadian Army has purchased 300+ plus 250,000 grenades, for about $90-million, and the US has been using the Mk.19, similar to the German weapon, for years. The difference, we believe, is that the German weapon has a 1500-meter range.
China closes on $3-trillion forex reserves The latest figure is $2.85-trillion for end 2010, and 18% increase over 2009, so sometime in the next few month China should hit $3-trillion. And this is during a global recession, no less.
Evolution does not take millions of years...There's several cases where very rapid adaptation takes place, and now Wall Street Journal gives another example, the (in)famous New York City Bed Bug. This critter is an incredible 250-times more resistant to insecticides than the Florida Bed Bug. And if you think that's impressive, the article says in ten years bed bugs have become 1000-times more resistant.
Reading this leaves us wondering if we might not need the German 40mm grenade machine gun after all...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703951704576092302399464190.html?mod=WSJ_hp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsTop

January 19, 2010

We apologize for the short update today. after six days of producing a company-level orbat for the French Army, using the official website in French, Editor is suffering orbat brain freeze. The problem with all us orbat types is that we are social misfits and compulsive in the extreme. Do any of the 50 or so people who buy Concise World Armies actually want a company-level French army orbat? We doubt it. Normally we produce such orbats only on special order. But the French Army was looking ominously outdated for a 2011 version, as no one has recently asked for a detailed orbat on the subject, and as the entry was last updated in 2009. Ninety percent is still current, but for us orbat types that's next to useless. A normal person would have stuck with a battalion-level orbat. But Editor is not normal - we knew that, didn't we? A German Army company level orbat is easy to do because the German's are fanatically well organized as far as their TOs go. Not so the French, who tailor their regiments to specific tasks, leaving a lot of variation. Not to mention that the French Army has eliminated one combat and some support brigades, deactivated many logistics, artillery, engineer regiments, reduced ALAT, and so on. Maybe Editor needs to get on medication for a little sanity - oh wait, he already is on medication for sanity. But then sane people create nothing.

Mullah Omar treated for heart attack? So says a Washington Post blog at http://voices.washingtonpost.com/spy-talk/2011/01/mullah_omar_treated_for_heart.html He was rushed to a Karachi hospital and released after 3-4 days, and is recovering in an ISI quiet house. He seems to be recovering and regaining his speech, worse luck yet. These old coots seem to be incredibly hardy. What's interesting about the report, allegedly based on eyewitness details given to a private US intelligence organization, is there has been much speculation if the Mullah is even alive, given as no one seems to have seen him in years.
Thanks to Vikhir Kradiac for the link.
Hugo checks in, Editor can now relax Thanks to reader Luxembourg for the story that Hugo now claims he has oil reserves greater than Saudi Arabia's, or 290-billion/barrels to be precise, versus 269-billion for the desert kingdom. http://www.cnbc.com/id/41101601
The problem is, Hugo is claiming the Orinoco tar sands in his reserves, and if he's going to do that, why not claim the entire 510-billion/barrels US geological services exist there is price is no object? And if we're going that route, why shouldn't the US claim the 2-trillion/barrels in its shale deposits?
Having started to run out of the easy oil, we are now starting to tap the middling oil, which is about 2-trillion/barrels - just a round figure that people use. After that there's the 2-trillion difficult oil, which includes most tar sands and shale. Right now oil has to stay consistently above $100-barrel for economic exploitation of the difficult oil. So either new techniques will have to be invented, or oil will have to go up a lot more.
Has Baby Doc Duvaliar lost his mind? The not-so-bloody son of the the really-bloody Haitian dictator took over from dad when he was 19, and was overthrown and ran away into exile in 1985. When we say "not-so-bloody" we are speaking relatively compared to the Old Boy, Baby Doc was rather nasty stuff by today's standards.
So he arrives in Port-au-Prince, exactly when Haiti which is struggling in the aftermath of a fixed presidential election, which came after the earthquake, and he is the last thing anyone needs. He thinks otherwise. He says he missed his country and decided it needed him, so he's back.
He's sort of in judicial custody, because he has to hold himself available for questioning as required by the authorities, but he is not sitting in the slammer, where he really, truly should be. But it's early days. Seems to us the young coot has lost his mind; there can be no good outcome for him. An investigating judge has already begun looking into corruption charges against him.
By the way, we'd like to ask a politically incorrect question: precisely how long is the US supposed to carry Haiti? Yes, yes, we know all about how the US exploited Haiti so we owe them. But for how long do we owe them? We feel its gotten to the stage we feel that the continuing US involvement in Haiti has become soft colonialism, and it's not good for either party. The Haitians will never get it together as long as Big Daddy-O is available with the handouts. Tough love and all that is required.
There has to be a statue of limitations on guilt. Look at Vietnam: we clobbered the place but good; no real estate in modern history has been so thoroughly blown up. Are the Vietnamese sitting their with their hands out and insisting the US owes them? Not one bit. They've been getting on with their lives from when the war ended 35 years ago. They also suffered from centuries of colonialism, but they aren't dysfunctional.

January 18, 2011

China sends troops to DPRK port? The Australian reports that China has sent troops to a DPRK port in an economic trade zone and has started using the port to send cargo to Shanghai from its Northeastern provinces. (Thanks to Vikhr Kradiac for the link.)
This is totally innocuous news, normally to be greeted with a yawn. But what's really peculiar is that China has denied this report, saying it will not send a single soldier overseas except on UN missions.
So the Chinese military engineers and self-protection troops in Pakistan's Northern Areas are there under UN auspices? Of course not. They are there because Pakistan is an ally and is building roads.
Similarly, DPRK is an ally. Why shouldn't China send troops to protect its facilities in DPRK, with DPRK consent?
This is a case of the Chinese overreacting to defend their "peace-loving" image when there is absolutely no need to do so. Stationing troops overseas in allied countries does not make China into an imperialistic power.
New York Times Stuxnet report criticized Several readers have brought to our attention reports that are very critical of the January 15, 2011 New York Times report saying Stuxnet is a joint US-Israeli-Siemens effort to slow down the Iranian centrifuge program. The criticism is because the report was so poorly sourced.
Well, after thinking about this, we find ourselves incapable of outrage. Generally stories concerning covert actions are very poorly sourced. In fact, every other semi-sensitive story in the media is poorly sourced. Look at the number of stories each day that say "sources say" or "sources that cannot be named because they were unauthorized to speak say", or similar stuff like that.
It used to be a basic rule of journalism that if you did not name your source, thus allowing anyone to check on the veracity of your statements, you didn't print the stuff. That's all in the past now, because journalistic standards for the main stream media have been about as rigorous as those for tabloids. This is just the way the world is now days.
You can criticize any story in the press that claims to be the whole truth because philosophically, it is impossible to get to the whole truth. If you properly research a study, getting the pro views and the con views, checking on if your sources are selling you a line, and so on, you will never get your story out. You'll end up producing a book, and even that may well not be impartial, because people who write books have to sell them, and for that the books need to cater more to the market needs than to scholarship.
Still further, the American press in particular has left itself ridiculously vulnerable to stories planted by the government. This is not news. Nor is it news that the government uses gullible journalists to plant stories - all governments do that, but in our experience American journalists are easily seduced by "access". Some of these journalists have big names. Seymour Hersh is an example we give because Editor on occasion ahs had to follow up his South Asia stories and its quite amazing how much stuff has simply been made up by someone and planted on Hersh.
Editor also recalls a book by Hersh which "revealed" the information that Indian Prime Minister Moraji Desai was on the CIA payroll. This was a 100% plant by people who wanted to get back at Moraji Desai for kicking the CIA out of India - temporarily, because after he lost power CIA came back. (Nothing terribly covert about this, CIA was in India on Government of India's invitation.) No sense in getting annoyed with Hersh, because he was told Desai was on the CIA payroll, and how on earth was Hersh to go around checking if this was true or not? After all, its just one tiny episode in his book.
Advice to the young spy There are good reasons to completely separate the business of obtaining intelligence from that of evaluating intelligence. In editor's experience, however, doing so creates a situation where intelligence is neither properly gained nor properly analyzed.
In the days Editor was doing his thing, he had a huge advantage because he knew how to work both sides of the equation. But everything comes down to how impartial you are. First, you have to be willing to constantly reassess everything as new information arrives. Second, you have to have a very high level of self-confidence, because the minute contrary information comes in, you have to be prepared to say "I was wrong". Third, you require an almost magical instinct to sort out what's plausible or implausible, regardless of your own belief. For that, you have to have an encyclopedic knowledge of the subject for which you are spying.
Editor will not go as far as to say "good spies are born and not made", because you can learn how to work both sides of the equation. Editor learned. But certain things help. One is to accept the truth is not fixed. Another is to accept the technique of an army division intelligence officer: based on the information you have, you have to make a working assessment that the division commander can use. You cannot sit there and go "on the one hand and on the other hand, and then there's the third hand" because your commander will see you are transferred to the lead battalion in the attack the next day. You have to make assessments very rapidly. And just as critical, you have to keep making assessments as more information comes in. Its a continuing process which has to be done very, very rapidly. Each assessment you make is only a snapshot in time. You cannot get invested in any snapshot. You have to be prepared to completely reverse your position instantly.
So how is this relevant to New York Times and the Stuxnet story? Very simple. If you're going to believe this was THE story, you're fooling yourself. You have to be able to take the truth from many stories and assemble your own story. In this particularly story, you have to be very, very careful of anything from an Israeli source because Israeli intelligence is possibly the biggest self-promoter of any clandestine service. Anyone can smile mysteriously. The other day a friend of one of my children asked: "Is it true you worked for the CIA?" Because the smiling mysteriously tactic does not work with people who have good instinct, and since this was a lady asking, and women have much better instinct than men, Editor did not smile mysteriously. He did his act, the underlying riff of which is "You caught me so much by surprise that I am now stuttering and making wholly unconvincing denials". It helps if you actually do stutter. If an Israeli is smiling mysteriously and you don't tell him: "have you ever told the truth in your life?" you are on the way to be conned.
But does this mean the Israelis had nothing to do with Stuxnet? Well, perhaps they did and perhaps they didn't. In Editor's experience the Israelis are very quick to take full credit for work done by the Americans.
Editor will now give his mysterious smile.

January 17, 2011

Tunisia Some clarity, but not a great deal, is emerging. We'd wondered why the Tunisian dictator gave in so easily when a few demonstrations erupted. Apparently the normally apolitical army "encouraged" the President to flee. On Saturday and Sunday the Army entered Tunis and at least one other town, mainly to get the pro-President police and security people back to their barracks instead of creating trouble. The Army also engaged in firefights with die-hard supporters of the deposed President.
The question now naturally on everyone's mind is: will the army seek a bigger role in the Government? Tunisia's Army has been apolitical and minds its own business. Personally, we're assuming it will continue to mind its own business, at most shepherding the formation of a new civilian government and defending it against threats. At present. however, the concern over possible Army intervention is unresolved.
New York Times says Stuxnet joint Israel-US-Siemens operation Reader Luxembourg forwards an article from the New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/16/world/middleeast/16stuxnet.html?_r=1 that is interesting.
What struck us is that if Iran is using the P-1 centrifuge, it wasn't going anywhere to begin with. And even with more advanced machines enriching uranium to weapons grade via this route is very difficult. That doesn't mean Iran's adversaries should not bother using any means that work to do damage to the program.
We'd also like to add that if centrifuges stop, or blow-up due to sudden acceleration-deceleration, its not just a question of losing the tiny bits of enriched Uranium in each centrifuge. What happens is the entire cascade gets upset and you pretty much have to start the cycle again. Losing a couple of individual centrifuges in a row is not a disaster, you can work around it. The thing is that though the science is simple, the technology is very difficult.
And we'd remind readers that when someone says" "It takes 25-kg of Highly Enriched Uranium to make a bomb", this is simply incorrect. You need a minimum of 25-kg to get a chain reaction. Once you drop below 25-kgs, the reaction stops. So you really need ~50-kg for a useful weapon, and that's after the losses you sustain in turning the gas into a metal and then machining the metal into a core. Yes, we have no doubt the US has some ultra-sophisticated techniques to reduce the amount of fissile material needed for a bomb. We know for a fact this is true of plutonium weapons, it may be true of uranium weapons. But assuming Pakistan or Iran or DPRK can master these techniques is unrealistic. Scientists in particular think if they can work out the physics and chemistry of the thing, the technology is within anyone's grasp. Not so, by a long shot.
Given the difficulties, we would not be surprised that Iran is using centrifuges to close the fuel-cycle for light-water reactors, and its weapons efforts focuses on plutonium. This is an easier route, and it helps if the rods you use are slightly enriched uranium. Better plutonium productivity.
Again, our standard declaimer: Iran has the right to pursue N-weapons in support of its national interests. But equally the US has the right to retard or destroy Iran's N-program in support of its national interests. You want to play with the big boys, get ready for a whole lot of heartbreak and accept that's the way the cookie crumbles.
In another fallout from Stuxnet UK telegraph says Russian scientists and technicians working on Iran's civilian N-reactor at Busher have warned Iran that because of the virus they need to slow down commissioning of the plant to fully study the implications. Iran is pressing for operationalization of the plant in the summer and is unwilling to tolerate further delays. The Russians say the Iranians have shown a disregard for safety procedures, and with a possible Stuxnet complication, they are worried a Chernobyl style disaster could result, for which they will be blamed. They are concerned enough that they have sent a letter to their document.
Now, there's two sides to this story. We are quite ready to believe Iran has been ignoring safety in the interests of getting the Busher plant on line. After all, if you look back to the 1950s and 1960s you will likely find both the US and USSR cut many, many corners in their nuclear and space programs - by today's standards - because safety was not the priority. At the same time, the Russians could be using Stuxnet as an excuse not to commission the reactor for now. The Russians are under intense western pressure on the plant, this could be an easy way of delaying things for another year or two.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/8262853/Russia-warns-of-Iranian-Chernobyl.html

January 16, 2011

Tunisia disturbances continue as gunmen alleged to be Presidential Guards fired from cars at people in the capital, killing two. In a massive jail break 1000 prisoners escaped after prison guards opened the gate to stop escalating violence inside. In another prison, an inmate set his mattress on fire, the fire spread, killing 42.
Meanwhile, the problem has developed that anyone named to interim positions pending fresh elections is compromised: with 31 years of one dictator followed by 23 of the recently deposed dictator, there are no leaders with clean hands.
China scores again This business of China does this and China does that is getting exceedingly boring for the Editor. The Chinese government is one of the most aggressive, repressive, and unsavory in the world, and frankly it bugs us to keep giving news of China's achievements.
This time China and Burma have agreed that the former will build an oil terminal in Burma, from where two pipelines will each carry 400,000-bbl/day of crude to Yunnan. The pipelines will be ready by 2013, which is no mean feat considering the terrain. Additionally, China is expediting new rail lines and rehabbing Burmese rail lines to tightly connect Burma to China. This way China gets to save time and money by not using the Malacca Straits for cargo for Central and western China, plus gains the security of bypassing the Malacca chokepoint.
India, meanwhile, gets even more closely surrounded by China. So what is India doing? "Zzzzzzzzzzz". Far from doing much, India is now denying that the Chinese intruded on Indian territory in Ladakh last year. The Indian army, no less, made the announcement. Not to worry, the Indian Army tells us soothingly: the Line of Control is not demarcated, so sometimes the Chinese patrol in our claim territory, and sometimes we patrol in theirs.
This astonishing statement completely ignores the reality that the reason China is in Ladakh in the first place is that it fought for and captured a huge part of Ladakh in 1962. That India itself is saying "sometimes they intrude and something we intrude", equating the two countries, shows what a sorry bunch of leaders, military and civil, that India has.
Where was the need for the Indian Army, of all people, to come to China's defense? After all, Japan has disputed water with China, and you don't see the Japanese after the recent fishing trawler incident saying "Sometimes they intrude to their claim line and sometimes we intrude to our claim line". Under the Indian constitutional setup, the Indian Army is supposed to keep its big fat mouth closely zipped. The Army is not supposed to make statements that are the responsibility of the Ministries of Home and of External Affairs. In fact, it is not allowed to say anything unless the statement is cleared from the MOD, which in turn has to get clearance from the Prime Minister.
So do we have to wait till the Chinese occupy Delhi before the Indian Army leadership acknowledges there is a problem?
Hugo appears again We were wondering what our favorite dictator has been up to: he seems to have dropped out of the news lately. So now he has gotten his telecom ministry to ban a Colombian TV soap opera. The soap features two sisters named Venezuela and Colombia. Venezuela has a dog named Little Hugo. In one episode she loses Little Hugo and Colombia tells her that she is better off without Little Hugo.
Also, to quote BBC: "Venezuela's telecommunications regulator Conatel said the secretary character named Venezuela was "repeatedly characterized as associated with crime, interference and vulgarity".
Seems pretty mild satire to us. As for the British, it is so mild they wouldn't even notice it was satirical. Anyway: Hugo, You Go, Boy.
President Bush wasn't the only one who looked into your eyes before deciding if he could trust you - actually, more specifically, trust Mr. Putin. When asked to comment on where Sino-Japanese ties are headed, the ambassador said: "Recently, I have noticed the look in the eyes of the Chinese has become calm. You can tell the truth by looking at a person's eyes. The Chinese side went overboard with the Senkaku incident, and that was not well received by the international community. I believe the Chinese engaged in some self-reflection."
Well, coincidentally the Editor is also an eye-to-eye contact person. Looking at the Asahi Shimbun photograph of the ambassador, Editor can tell ambassador is a calm person who reflects a lot and makes haste slowly. http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201101140271.html
You can also tell he is calm because the newspaper asked him that he had said older people should step aside, so what did he think about becoming ambassador to China at age 71, he replied: "When dealing with today's China, no matter who accepts the job, that person must face the risk of taking flak or having dirt thrown in their face. That certainly was the case after the Senkaku incident. If a person from the bureaucracy were to become ambassador, it would be difficult for that individual to directly appeal to the politicians. Depending on the times and environment, it is better to have an elderly person do the job. It doesn't matter if I end up stepping down in disgrace, as I will be dead in a few years."
You wanna talk about calm, you don't get calmer than that.
Nonetheless, we suspect ambassador is mirror-imaging, the sin that gets America into so much trouble overseas. If the Chinese are looking calm, it's because they've messed up Japan but good on the rare earth thing, and given the finger to the rest of the world by messing them up on the rare earth thing too. They got Japan to hand back their trawler, crew, and captain without giving anything in return. All in all, it was a complete victory for the Chinese.
If they are being calm, it is only because they know three years down the road they'll be that much stronger economically and militarily, and they look forward to beating down other countries even more forcefully than they beat down Japan.
Still, it is engaging and refreshing to have a public official anywhere who remained calm in the face of the gravest provocations by the Chinese foreign ministry, and who can be so deprecatory about his own future. A gentleman of the old school, and we say that as a compliment.

January 15, 2011

Dictators aren't what they used to be Whoever heard of a dictator fleeing his country because officially 23 people have been killed in anti-government riots, unofficially 66? But this is what happened to the President of Tunisia, who has ruled with a heavy hand for 23 years. He deposed the leader under whom Tunisia became independent in 1956, and who ruled for 31 years. In 54 years, by contrast, US has elected eleven presidents, three of whom governed for 8 years each.
For once US has shown impeccable timing. Just the day before Mrs. Clinton warned that the day of dictators in the Arab world may be coming to an end, and she was referring specifically to the rioting in Tunisia.
What does this mean for other Arab countries like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Syria to name a few? It's hard to say. In most cases it ultimately comes down to the army. If the army says it will not put down rioting that has gotten out of police/paramilitary control, then no regime has much of a chance. Saudi, of course, is insulated by multiple layers of security, not least its National Guard which is completely loyal to the regime.
Another people's protest underway, this time in China So this gentleman has two trucks hauling sand and gravel. He obtained fake PLA license plates for his vehicles, and over 8-months defrauded the government of $550,000 worth of tolls. So the court fined him $300,000 and put his away for life.
Not so fast, say an increasing number of citizens. Rape and murder gets you 15-years but evading toll gets you life?
Further, people are asking: who is the criminal here, the trucker or the Government that wants a $200 toll each time a truck travels that particular part of the highway? And it can't be a long stretch, because each truck was doing the journey 5+ times a day, and supposed to be paying $1000 a day in tolls.
Apparently in China people pay tolls at the same rate people in Germany pay, but of course, Germany is one of the richest countries in the world and kind of compact when you compare it to China, which is one of the biggest countries in the world.
To add to the pain, local authorities set up illegal toll booths and collect money for their officials.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/14/world/asia/14china.html?ref=asia
Good Grief: Maybe these are the Last Days BBC reports the trucker us to be given a new trial following protests on the Internet. Amazing.
Quantum Teleportation Proved? This is rather mind-boggling. Readers can read the general public version of the experiments at http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20927952.900-scorn-over-claim-of-teleported-dna.html and the actual paper at http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/1012/1012.5166v1.pdf
Gent put DNA is one tube, and water in another tube next to the DNA tube. Soon the DNA appeared in the water. The gent is a Nobel prize winning scientist, not your average nutcase. He says it appears DNA sends out electromagnetic signals that are imprinted on the water and DNA is produced. Among the arguments against this idea is that water if it can be imprinted, must hold the imprint only for picoseconds, much, much too short a time for DNA to form.
But something is going on here. New Scientist says if the idea is proved, it will be the biggest revolution in science in 90-years and will render chemistry as we know it obsolete.
Editor can already see $$$$: no one wants their DNA altered by hanging around other people, so an isolation suit that blocks other people's DNA from influencing yours should be a best-seller. Of course, someone else will make the suit obsolete by eliminating all contact between humans and using only holograms to communicate. Issac Asimov explored this theme in his later Robot novels, including the Robots of Dawn. Too bad. We thought our idea was a good one for the 30-seconds it lasted. Another day, another gazillion dollars not made.

January 14, 2011

Lebanon Correction We should have clarified that Syria represents Hezbollah in talks over Lebanon and Saudi Arabia represents the West. Nonetheless, Syria seems to be siding with Saudi and the US in this crisis, because it has urged Hezbollah to return to the Government.
Hezbollah demands Lebanon Prime Minister exclusion from next Government The President of Lebanon has asked the current PM to continue on an interim basis. Hezbollah, which has been holding talks with the Druze, who are a third armed faction in Lebanon, says the Lebanese PM (and son of Harari the leader murdered in 2005) has to go because he is the one pushing for indicting Hezbollah for his father's murder, with the full backing of the US/EU.
At this point there are only two possibilities: The west backs down and Hezb is not indicted for the murder, which will represent a big jump in Hezb's power, or the west does not back down, and a confrontation results which bodes ill for everyone, not least Lebanon.
Jerusalem Post reports that a former deputy chief of Mossad believes a compromise will be found, which will give concessions to Hezb. That means dropping the case. The former official says no one wants a war and Hezb's strategy has been to gain dominance in the government rather than to fight. Fair enough, except concessions mean strengthening Hezb and Iran, and weakening the west.
US is in no position to materially influence the situation. Had US not been involved in Afghanistan/Iran, the best temporary solution would be for US forces to join the Lebanese Army (the part that is not beholden to Hezb) and Israel, and destroy Hezb. This would cause the Sunni Arab world to rejoice and quietly pat US on the back. However, the course we suggest is inconceivable as the US cannot get into yet another multi-year intervention.
We would also argue against a US intervention because the US intervention record in Lebanon, Somalia, Iraq, and Afghanistan is mind-bogglingly botched. There is absolutely no reason to assume the US could pull off a Lebanon intervention, and ample reason to fear it will be another royal Snafu.
We suggest the US Government and elite could more profitably spend their time trying to figure out how to get US corporations to create jobs in the US, rather than overseas, as they are currently doing. In case we forgot to mention this earlier, the common assertion that US companies are sitting on piles of cash and not creating jobs is wrong. They are creating jobs - overseas - and they are doing very well in terms of profits, thank you.
Under American ethical rules, a corporation's job is to maximize the benefit to its shareholders, and the devil take the hindmost, which in this case is America. Before globalization, to make profits American companies had to invest in America. No longer. They make more money investing overseas. Just another reason to say, "America, goodbye." Karl Marx would have been so happy, because you now have American capitalism destroying America.
In the end, 30-50 years from now, it will all straighten out. We in America will be making $1/hour, and the Chinese and Indians will be making $15/hour, the inverse of the present situation. Then the jobs will return, and in another 30-50 years, America will be on top again.
As for what happens during that 60-100 years to you, your children, your grandchildren, well, its just too bad. We'll all be collateral damage. When Editor lived in India for 20-years, he and his family occupied an apartment of 250-square-feet (unheated, cooling was not a problem in the Himalayas), without a phone, TV, fridge, or other appliances, no car, minimal medical care, travel by 3rd Class, no meat in the diet, etc etc. So if it comes to that, Editor can live like that in America. But it's for our readers to decide if they can live like that, and if they cannot, what are they going to do about it.
Can you believe this? US Marines still buying HueyCobras 45 years after the beast first saw war service. The Marines are famous/notorious for not letting go of their weapons, and this is such a case. Of course, we're talking the Zulu version - the Marines have run through all the permissible letters, and the Zulu version is quite different from the original HueyCobras, but still...Nonetheless, the Marines are still using the UH-1N, which went out of production in 1979. See http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story.jsp?channel=defense&id=news/awst/2011/01/10/AW_01_10_2011_p42-279769.xml&headline=USMC%20AH-1Z%20To%20Deploy%20In%20Late%202011&next=10 if you don't believe us. And the HueyCobra Zulu has 70% parts commonality with the Huey N! The Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle fiasco notwithstanding, the Marines try not to waste money. (EFV has been killed by SecDef Gates, partly because he says opposed amphibious landings are not particularly likely in the environments where the Marines are deployed.
Hello, Jurassic Park The Japanese are getting set to clone a woolly mammoth - yup, the same loveable feller with the giant tusks that died out 5000 or more years ago. Previously there was no way to get viable cells from the dead/frozen mammoths. But the Japanese have figured it out: they cloned a mouse frozen for 16-years. If all goes as planned, and the Japanese find a good frozen tissue sample, an elephant will be the surrogate mother.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/8257223/Mammoth-could-be-reborn-in-four-years.html
Rent-A-Husband by the hour What the business in the Republic of Georgia meant is that you can rent male help for heavier household tasks for ~$18/hour. What the ladies thought they were getting was - er - "affection" for $18/hour. Editor is busy checking air fares to Republic of Georgia. And please, no sniggering. Editor is very good at housework. [News from UK Telegraph]

January 13, 2011

The link below effectively shreds the argument that US can work with Pakistan moderates to strengthen Pakistan and achieve US objectives. While the think tank is Indian, it is a straightforward analysis, no more.

http://southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers43%5Cpaper4269.html

Lebanon Government falls as Hezbollah withdraws Everyone has been waiting for this disaster while hoping something could be done to avoid it. A bit of background. In 2005, a leading presidential candidate was murdered, all part of Lebanon's culture of political assassination. This man was the father of the current prime minister. A UN tribunal backed solidly by the US/EU is about to find Hezbollah responsible for the murder. Hezbollah has threatened retaliation if the indictments are issued and the Lebanon Government acts on them.
Okay. In the meanwhile, US and Syria have been cozying up, and Saudi Arabia has joined the group hug, to ensure the indictments against Hezb go forward, because Hezbollah is Shia, and backed by Iran.President Obama, who was meeting the Lebanese Prime Minister at the point Hezb and its allies pulled out of the government, leading to its demise, has brilliantly said that the pullout reflects Hezb's fear. Whichever universe the learned Prez inhabits, its not the same one as Hezbollah.
Editor does not believe Hezb is showing any fear by pulling out. Rather, it is showing that it controls Lebanon's destiny and there will be no peace in Lebanon without it. Since Editor is only casually informed on the Lebanon crisis, he refers readers to an article in Israel's Haaretz, which he believes more accurately explains the reasons for Hezb's move. And it is an offensive, not a defensive move. http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/timing-of-hezbollah-s-resignation-from-lebanon-government-no-coincidence-1.336691
So Syria and Saudi Arabia are urging Hezb to stay in the government: living in the 'hood, these two rather unpleasant regimes recognize the immense potential for blowback as a result of the coming indictments and Hezb's withdrawal from the government. It is Syria and Saudi who are afraid, and the US should be too. The problem here is, what does the Shia Hezb get from obliging Sunni Syria and Saudi Arabia, its enemies?
Well, this being the Middle East, who can tell how it works out. But if Hezb returns to the government, it will only be under the condition that the government closes the case, in which its a major defeat for US/EU. If the case goes forward, we're looking at a new civil war in Lebanon, and again, everyone including Lebanon most of all, is going to lose. In case of a war, Hezb's strategy is to hit Israel, and Israel has already said it doesn't care the Lebanese Government cannot handle Hezb, it will level Lebanon once again if it is attacked. This is all part of the subtle (not) Israeli strategy of telling Lebanon: "Either you attack Hezb and too bad if that means the end of Lebanon, or we'll put an end to Lebanon. You might win against Hezb, you will be wiped out by us."
Terrific strategy, makes the macho Israelis salivate because shows boy-oh-boy, are they tough. Of course, Lebanon cannot win against Hezb because Lebanon is divided against itself. So Lebanon will be destroyed and Hezb will be even stronger. Of course, how can we criticize the Israelis for their idiot strategy when the US itself doesn't have a clue to what its doing in several theatres of the GWOT. After the 1008 War Israel spent a lot of time whistling in the dark that it had battered Hezb. All it did was batter Lebanon, which is equally a victim of Hezb. The Shia movement not only stopped the Israeli ground offensive, it emerged much more powerful politically and militarily.
There is a reason many people ignore study of the Mideast. There are NO solutions to the perpetual intrigues that go on, decade after decade.
Did Indian Intelligence subcontract the killing of a wanted terrorist? Or was it a purely gang affair? Vikhir Kradiac sends a link saying that while Indian authorities are waiting for confirmation, it appears that India's most wanted Islamic terrorist and an associate were shot dead in Karachi. The speculation is that Indian intelligence either subcontracted the killing to a major Bombay gangster, or the killing was conducted by Ibrahim Dawood, a major Indian gangster who fled to Pakistan after being implicated in the 1993 Bombay bomb-blasts, and continues his operations. If Dawood was behind this, it could simply be that the terrorists was getting in the way of his business.
Whatever the reason, the death of the terrorist, if conformed, will give a big boost to the Indian public's morale. The public has felt helpless in the face of terror attacks, with the Government of India unwilling to retaliate against Pakistan.
We must in fairness to Dawood note that it is said he went to work with Pakistan intelligence following the killings of Muslims in India, wanting revenge for his community. He is said to have been aided by several other Indian Muslim gang leaders. In an operation that went largely unnoticed in the west, 250 people were killed and 700 injured in the bomb attacks. As such the operation was more effective than the 2008 Bombay attacks. Corrupt Indian law-enforcement officials facilitated the attacks.
http://www.mid-day.com/news/2011/jan/120111-Indian-Mujahideen-Riyaz-Bhatkal-killing-Chhota-Rajan-underworld.htm
Laff-A-While An Indian Kashmiri leader, currently serving as a Central minister, has threatened China with retaliation for its intrusions in Ladakh. Titter. So funny. Great sense of humor. What is India going to do? Eat black beans and let go when the wind is blowing west-east?
Meanwhile, a local leader in the area of Ladakh where the latest intrusion was reported has complained that neither the Indian Army nor the border troops take any heed of Ladakhi complaints that civilians have been driven away from their villages. Indeed, concerning a hot-springs health resort, Chinese troops have taken over for their own use and don't let the locals use the resort.
Can't blame the Indian Army. It has the strictest instructions not to respond to intrusions least they may escalate. Odd that the Chinese forces have not been given equally strict instructions to stay clear of the border less incidents/escalations result.

January 12, 2011

Another Pakistan Blasphemy Case A man and his son have been jailed for life after being found guilty of pulling off an advertising poster with Koranic verses posted outside their shop, tearing it up, and trampling it beneath their feet. At first sight this is not as absurd as the medical representative whose name was Muhammad who accused a leading medical practitioner of blasphemy because the doctor threw the man's calling card into the wastebasket. When you're conflating a mere mortal name's with blasphemy to the Prophet, then you've reached pretty low.
But on closer examination, the poster case is even more absurd because the accused man is himself an Imam. He just happens to belong to the wrong sect. It is very unlikely that an imam would tear up a poster with Koranic verses and then trample in it. So what next? Someone breaks into your house and sticks up a poster in your bedroom, and you take it down, and you will be put away for life for blasphemy? The man and his son were tried by a secular court, by the way.
Meanwhile, the retired father and the mother of a Pakistan Supreme Court judge were found murdered in their home. The Government blames bandits, but its hard to escape the thought that because Supreme Court judges are very well protected, someone who wanted to get the man hit his parents instead.
And in a further expression of the hysteria enveloping Pakistan, since the man who murdered the Punjab State leader had a beard, now men with beards are not going to be recruited as police bodyguards. This is going to help exactly now? From what we know of the Koran, deception to kill an enemy of Islam is very much permissible. The glorious deed of killing an apostate completely overrides any sanction that might be imposed for cutting your beard to do the killing.
For a long time, western analysts have been trying to comfort the world by saying "oh, but the Islamists won only X percent of the votes at the election". In this last election it was 6%. Quite aside from the sheer illogic of this assumption (what percentage of fundamentalists chose to vote is an obvious first question), we've tried to explain from India's experience of the Sikh insurgency, just 1-2% of the population willing to become extremists can override the will of the other 98-99% because the extremists are willing to kill you and a weak state cannot protect you.
India defeated the Sikh insurgency because it systematically shot captured extremists. Doubtless some were innocent in a court of law. But the law courts weren't functioning well either because the extremists specifically targeted the police and their families, and the judges were just as vulnerable. Besides, has anyone litigated a case in India? If they haven't, they haven't a clue when they complain the rule of law was ignored in the Sikh insurgency. There were times when one thousand civilians a month were being murdered by terrorists in a state with fewer people than New York State. Can you imagine a similar situation in America? How long do you think the American public would insist on the rule of law in dealing with such insanity.
By the way, think about this. Suppose 1-2% of Americans decided to revolt against the state and used, as their means of self-expression, the method of killing civilians and police. That's 3-6 million Americans we're talking about: killers, facilitators, and sympathizers, espousing a sectarian cause, seeking to turn neighbor against neighbor by using large-scale murder. Anyone care to predict what would happen to America?
Tel Aviv University tracked vulture accused of being a Mossad agent by Saudi Arabia So this vulture has a GPS tracker, such as used by scientists to research bird migration and activity. So this poor vulture with a tracked stamped Tel Aviv University landed in Saudi Arabia, and has been detained on accusations it is spying for Israel. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12120259
Even Editor does not think the Saudis are that stupid. Since conspiracy theories about the poor bird are making the rounds in the Desert Kingdom, here's our theory. This is a Mossad disinformation operation to make the Saudis look like blithering idiots. (Please, no letters to Editor saying "and we need Mossad to prove that? Be nice, now.)

January 11, 2011

Zimbabwe Prime Minister victim of Wikileaks Readers may remember that the international community sort of forced President Robert Mugabe to accept the opposition leader Morgan Tsvangiri won the election for Prime Minister. This was supposed to signal a new era in Zimbabwe, and lay a framework for the retirement of the Old Crocodile. Mugabe never lived up to the agreement. Now he is using Wikileaks cables that discuss Tsvangiri's and his party's interaction with American diplomats. Mugabe says he will put Tsvangiri and others on trial for treason. No need to provide evidence, as the cables will be used as evidence. Nice going, Julian. Another blow against American hegemony, that you're helping send the democratic Zims down the river, while strengthening the hand of the dictator.
No, demolishing Shepherds Hotel in Jerusalem does not harm Israel-Palestine peace chances Shepherds is a historic landmark in Jerusalem dating from British times. It was taken over by Israel subsequent to the 1967 War as an abandoned property when Israel annexed East Jerusalem. Twenty-five years ago it was purchased by a a Jewish-American investor who recently got permission to raze the now derelict property and build apartments. Last Sunday the hotel was razed.
Among those who have condemned the move as inimical to Israel-Palestine peace are the UN Secretary General, US Secretary of state, and 25 European consul-generals.
The problem is, to begin with there was no peace that could be endangered by the demolition. The entire idea that Israel can be brought to stop expansion of Jewish settlements in Jerusalem is fallacious, as the Israelis have never agreed to a halt, and never will. From time to time, when under intense American pressure, Israel has "paused" - Austin Powers, please - its development so that "negotiations" - more Austin Powers, please - can take place.
But Israel has never intended, not for a second, that the development stop. Everyone in the world and her dog knows this. heck, even the fleas on the dogs know this.
For this reason, we spared our readers the constant barrage of news last year when "negotiations" were taking place. We didn't want to waste your time given that the whole thing was a complete farce.
There is no question of any peace that excludes Israel from taking over more and more of Jerusalem and more and more of the West Bank.
This is a bit ironic, because Hitler justified his wars to the East as a need for living space. Of course, the Israelis are not putting Palestinians into gas ovens or shooting them 10,000 at a time to get the living space. But to Hitler, German expansion was a zero-sum game: Germany, to grow, had to exterminate tens of millions of humans because to him it was either the Germans or the inferior races, and no guesses as to whose side he took. When you look at the enormous areas he conquered in the east, which by today's standards were under-populated, and then you look at Israel-Palestine, which is a tiny, crowded piece of land, and you realize today it is a true zero-sum game. Hitler did not have to kill anyone to get living space for the Germans. But today, it's either the Israelis or the Palestinians, and if you argue with the Israelis, they would say: "Excuse you, please, you can hardly blame us for putting our interests ahead of the Palestinian interests."
You may moan, groan, whine, weep, plead, cajole, bribe, threaten, and the Israelis will simply join hands and sing "We will not be moved." Might is right - as it usually is, go back to American history if you doubt that, and right now the Israelis have might on their side. They could take Stalin's old saw about the Pope, and ask, "how many divisions do the Palestinians have?"
So what is the sense of the West and the UN pretending their efforts to make Israel see sense make any sense? Its better for everyone to speak the truth: "America cannot pressure Israel into giving up its settlement policy" - or won't according your preference - and there's nothing anyone can do about it. The Palestinians will not be happy, but at least they wont have the grounds to call you hypocrites. Its this giving them false hope and then letting them down drives the Palestinians crazy. would drive you crazy too, if you were on the receiving end.
2.5-million of 180-million Pakistanis pay tax The other day we'd mentioned that Pakistan's income tax base is very narrow and this creates financial problems for the state. Jang of Pakistan says of the 2.5-million paying tax, 1.8-million are salaried employees with tax deducted at source. The tax-to-GDP ration is supposed to be the lowest in the world, 9.6% of GDP, but we're unsure on what basis the claim to be lowest is made.
The figures come from the National Database and Registration Authority, which went into records such as who pays taxes in the most expensive residential localities in Pakistan urban areas and who maintains bank accounts. http://www.thenews.com.pk/NewsDetail.aspx?ID=9068

January 10, 2011

Japan scrambles 44 times against Chinese air intrusions in the last nine months, says UK Telegraph. Also, Indian reports say that last fall Chinese troops intruded a mile beyond the Ladakh border that Chinese itself has set for itself to tell Indian workers building a bus shed to stop work as they were in China.
So of course we were going to blast the Government as craven cowards because this serious affront has not even been revealed for some months, but we've had to hold our fire, because the Japanese Government seems just as craven for not revealing what amounts to systematic Chinese violations of its air space for the better part of the year.
We have a suggestion for the Japanese and Indian governments. Since you all seem unable to stand up to China, why not simply tell China you will accept its superiority and kiss its big fat red behind whenever required. Then there will be no need to waste so much money on defense.
Ozzie goes wild on US vs China scenario An Australian analyst says in a fight between China and the US over Taiwan, the Americans would score a 6-1 kill ratio but still be overwhelmed by Chinese numbers. He has a single US carrier facing thousands of MiG-21 drones, Taiwan airfields out of action in the first 30 minutes, and US fighters having to operate long-range from Okinawa and Guam with a limited time on station. http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story.jsp?id=news/awst/2011/01/03/AW_01_03_2011_p21-279384.xml&headline=Chinese%20Air%20Force%20Could%20Overwhelm%20Opponents&channel=defense
The best thing anyone can do to this scenario is to trash it and forget about it.
First, the US and China are not going to fight over Taiwan. One of these days, Taiwanese will themselves vote for some kind of peaceful accommodation with China and that will be the end of that.
Second, its true China has 1200 or more tactical missiles with which to attack Taiwan targets including its airfields. Whether this means it shuts down every Taiwan main, alternate, and emergency field is another matter, but let's concede that Taiwan and its bases are out of the fight. if China can attack Taiwan with a thousand missiles, US can attack China's airbases with twice as many before it even sends a carrier anywhere near Taiwan. So if we're counting Taiwan out, lets also count China out, and everyone can go home.
Third, no one is going to send a single carrier into combat at any time. Enough said. If the Australian analyst doesn't know this, then we're not going to waste time explaining it to him.
Fourth, a drone MiG-21 jet fighter? Thousands attacking the lone US carrier the analyst envisages? Now look people, we know the loveable Ozzies like to drink. But what this analyst is doing is not drinking, he is so far from reality he is not even inhaling, he's somewhere between Pluto and the Oort Cloud. US fighters operating over the Taiwan Strait out of Guam? He's left the Oort Cloud behind and is headed for Centurus.
By the way, we don't know what the latest stats are on the F-22 versus the F-15, but last we recall it was somewhere around 0 for 15. We'd check that 6-1 ratio, even though the F-35 is not, of course, the F-22.
People actually get paid to put out this stuff? Why is it Editor never gets these gigs?

January 9, 2011

America Doubles Down on Pakistan Having thoroughly reviewed the Pakistan question, the US Government has correctly concluded the situation is hopeless and that Pakistan cannot be straightened out. So with what passes for logic in America these days, the Government has decided it has no choice but to double down in Pakistan. More aid is planned, more support to the civil government, more investment in tribal areas, etc etc.
Those of us who are old enough are familiar with this path. In Vietnam it was actually clear to most everyone by the late 1960s that the situation was unwinnable. And how could it be otherwise, when North Vietnam could not be invaded, and China/USSR were free to send hundreds of thousands of tons of supplies each month to the Hanoi Government. There's a sound reason Americans didn't used to do limited war, because ultimately it doesn't work. But you will recall in Vietnam we'd raised the stakes so high that acknowledging the war was unwinnable became politically impossible. So we created the fiction of Vietnamization, and left as quickly as we could.
You see the similarities. With the essential difference that while we have created the fiction of Afghanization and a cooperative Pakistan, we are not leaving.
In the larger scheme of things, with America rapidly and bravely advancing to second-rate status, Pakistan is hardly a major issue. There's much more serious stuff to be messed up, like the economy, the budget, the deficit for starters.
So if you want to be philosophical - and when you can't change things you become philosophical - why worry about Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Pakistan coalition partner returns to the government The MQM party is back in the government so the immediate crisis is over. All this does is prolong and worsen the long-term crisis, which is that the aid-giving community has been insisting that Pakistan raise prices of material such as POL to cover costs and eliminate subsidies. The MQM is an urban party, and the rise in POL prices which Islamabad dutifully increases is a major issue. The Government has rolled back the increase, so the budget will continue to hemorrhage money on this point, which will make aid-givers mad which will reduce the funds flowing in which will make things work. You know the scenario.
MQM wanted the Pakistan government to raise taxes on agriculturists, who as in India get away with murder on subsidies and income tax. Pakistan, however, is a feudal society and raising taxes on well-off farmers cannot be done. In India the industrial base is big enough that the state gets plenty of revenue even though it provides water and electricity at give away rates to the farmers, and does not press well-over farmers on paying their fair share of taxes. Incidentally, India has its own POL subsidy problem: billions of dollars a year are being lost. But again, India's tax base is large enough it manages. In Pakistan, we are told (and please correct us), something like 2% of the people pay income tax. No need to say more.
US no longer first for longest bridge Believe us, we get as bored as our readers at our weekly litany of China overtaking the US in something else. The solution, we think, should not be to moan and whine, but to try harder. Americans will not moan and whine when they hear this latest, nor will they try harder, because they are mentally non-functional these days. They will simply slump a little lower on their couches and pop another beer.
The Chinese have built a 26.4-mile long bridge between Quingdo and Huangdo, three miles longer than the previous record holder, the Lake Pontchartrain Causeway in Louisiana. They built it in four years, and it is designed to withstand Magnitude 8 earthquakes, typhoons, and collisions with ships up to 300,000-tons. The six-lane bridge will not hold first place for long: UK Telegraph says in December 2009 work started on a 31-mile bridge between Zhuzai in Southern Guangdong province to Hong Kong.

January 8, 2011

By coincidence, we have three letter to the Editor today all of which concern Pakistan. Sometimes Editor is surprised many people think he is anti-Pakistan. Readers of this blog, however, know that Editor has defended Pakistani actions against US intervention in Afghanistan/Pakistan and has suggested - on purely practical grounds - that the US should leave Pakistan strictly alone. As far as Pakistan's relationship with India is concerned, Pakistan since 1985 has been fighting a continuing war against India. If Editor believed Pakistani values were superior to Indian, even though he is Indian he would not criticize Pakistan. Editor believes that India is the future and Pakistan the past, and Pakistani values are not to be preferred. Nonetheless, unlike many Indians he does not make a moral issue of Pakistan. Pakistan is doing what it believes it has to do against India. And Editor believes India in turn must do what India needs to do against Pakistan. Nonetheless, Editor has never blamed Pakistan, and never will, for following its security imperatives in ways that make sense to it. Once you recognize Pakistan as a country (which Editor does not), you have to recognize Pakistan's right to ensure its security as it sees best, regardless of if its methods are acceptable to America and to India. Conversely, however, Pakistanis should not The blog began within days of began after 9/11. Right now Pakistan is a major problem for the US in the GWOT, and India too. Both these countries have as much right to defend themselves as Pakistan has to attack them.

From reader Vikhir Kradiac is a link to an article on Pakistani ISI The article is written by a Pakistani and comes from a Pakistani newspaper. There is no question of Editor trashing ISI, which in a purely abstract way he admires - and if you read this article you will see why.
The article at http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2011\01\07\story_7-1-2011_pg7_26 clearly shows how the terror groups fostered by ISI are getting out of ISI's control. This has been known for some years, and also shows the wrongness of some aspects of US policy toward Pakistan. Many terror groups CANNOT be dismantled by Pakistan and the ISI. When Pakistan has tried to do this, these groups have turned against the Pakistan state and the ISI. If Pakistan, for example, were to turn against the Haqqanis - which is not in its slightest interest, Pakistan and ISI would have to combat 20,000 well-trained fighters in addition to other enemies. Given Pakistan's condition, this will serve solely to accelerate the end of Pakistan as a nation state and create ten times more problems for the US - and India than they face today.
But what the article also shows is that despite the enormous pressures and complications ISI faces, far from giving up, it is seeking to create a new unified alliance of terror groups, co-opting those who have slipped away or are in the process of slipping away. This is why we admire the ISI. It has a real Never Say Die ethic.
If ISI succeeds, both India and the US will be in for a tough time.
Letter from a reader on Pakistan's claims to Kashmir Given this insanity (general situation in Pakistan plus the murder of the Punjab Governor on account of his moderate views) , Pakistan has a right to Kashmir exactly why? If Kashmir ever falls to Pakistan, then the Shias, Hindus, Sikhs, and Buddhists can kiss their sorry behinds goodbye. And an independent Kashmir is going to protect itself from the Pakistan Army rolling in as if for a picnic exactly how? I wonder if Arundati Roy and the "ordinary" Kashmiri kids yearning to be free from India's "brutal yoke" and fighting its "overwhelming oppressive machine" have ever thought about all this.
I also think this puts to rest your advocating India bringing Paki back into the fold. The Saudis and Gulf states have won. There is no way a Salafiized/Wahabized Pakistan can ever be reabsorbed back into a federal India unless these loonies are purged. And we spindly-legged dhoti-wearing Hindus are not the ones to do it. We'll just create more Salafists.
Editor's response Pakistan was NEVER a secular state. It was founded as an Islamic state. The 10% of non-Muslims in the West were pushed out first, then they started working on the 30% of non-Muslims in the East. Today that figure in Bangladesh is 10%.
With the framework of the Radcliffe partition, Pakistan had no claim to Kashmir as the ruler decided who he wanted to join. Agreed that India blotted its copybook because it did not let the Muslim king of Hindu majority Junagarh join Pakistan, saying he was not a legitimate ruler. at the same time, even if Junagarh had gone to Pakistan, Pakistan would have attacked Kashmir - the K in their name is for Kashmir, so they claimed it even before the Radcliffe award.
Further, to give him credit, Nehru knew Maharaja of Kashmir was illegitimate. That is why he insisted the Maharaja free Abudullah, who was jailed for asking for democracy in Kashmir, and why he dealt with Abdullah rather than the Maharaja aside for the accession signature.
Pakistan lost all legitimacy as a Muslim homeland in 1971. Further, Pakistan has always been a Sunni state: all other Muslim sects were oppressed, of course never as badly as they are now. So it isn't a true Islamic state either.
My argument to bring Pakistan back was never politically feasible because the vast majority of Hindus in 1947 said "good riddance", for reasons going back to Muslim conquest of India.
Politically feasible or not, a strong Indian prime minister could have brought Pakistan back on the same terms as the British: East of the Indus to be part of India, west of the Indus to be autonomous.
India has never had a leader capable of such resolution.
And yes, its ten times harder now because the extremists would have to be exterminated, as India did with the communists in West Bengal and the Khalistanis. Personally, I believe a little bit of extermination would work: you need to shoot 1 in 100 fundamentalists and you will get a "Better Red Than Dead" syndrome a la Eastern Europe 1945 on.
But when we dont have the willpower to recapture Pakistan, we certainly will not have the willpower to exterminate.
Your point about if Kashmir is independent the Pakistanis take it over is one I have made many times, as also your point Kashmir will be ethnically cleanesed. The Pakistanis support "Azadi", yet they don't give their own Kashmir Azadi: 56 of 60 portfolios in Muzzafarabad are held by the center. Northern Territories have been incorporated directly into Pakistan: they are no longer even part of Pakistan Kashmir.
Because India is incredibly stupid about its propaganda, on the basis of "we are so superior we don't care if we convince you", it has never brought these issues to the fore in the west
Arundhati is Arundhati. You need her to show the west that we are liberal democrats. She is harmless, but you can understand after 25 years of war in Kashmir and now the spread of Islamic terror throughout India, people want her tried for treason. After all, you will remember the Brits who supported the USSR, though the first order of the day had Britain gone communist would have been to shoot the pro-Moscow lobby. Nonetheless, it will be a terrible mistake to prosecute her. She is an internationally recognized author and social activist, she is physically tiny, and she is a woman with a flair for the dramatic. Rather than prosecute her, GOI should embrace her. GOI should set up an alternate commission composed of "Friends of Kashmir", give them full support, and let them come up with a solution. They themselves will see in due time that for any degree of freedom, Kashmir has to stay with India. There is no other solution, and certainly not the illusionary independence, which has gained strength since the USSR broke up and the west destroyed Yugoslavia. Incidentally, there is very little support in Indian Kashmir to join Pakistan.
You will notice I do not enter into the question of India's responsibility for events in Kashmir. This is a very complicated matter to begin with, and became more complicated when Pakistan started pushing insurgents into Indian Kashmir in the 1980s. And it has become even more complicated, if such a thing can be imagined, because Islamic fundamentalism has come to Kashmir.
Ultimately it comes down to that the GOI has failed - and is still failing to a large extent - to make its case on Kashmir. Arrogant stupidity of the highest order.
Letter from reader David on General Kayani of Pakistan There has been speculation for a while that General Kayani would stage a military coup and some are surprised that it hasn't happened already.
He (Kayani) comes across as much more reserved than Musharraf and not fond of the give & take of politics. If he took complete control via a coup, he would need to be in the room when the IMF would want to talk about loans, budgets and economic reforms. There would be more pressure from various entities to reduce the military spending and getting started on educational and human development projects.
Doing something about the violence and Jihadi culture would totally fall on his shoulders rather than continuing to push it off on the Police and Frontier Corp as he has been doing as COAS. With the present setup, he can stand aside and say he is just the military guy when tough and unpopular decisions need to be made and implemented by the Pakistani leadership. An example is the pressure for economic reforms and increasing tax collection.
Is Kayani refraining from taking total control because he doesn't like the politics involved with running a country? Is he "ignorant" (not able to connect the dots)
that many of the actions done by the Military and the ISI over the decades (past & present) have
helped get Pakistan in the mess that it is in?
Or is Kayani refraining from taking control because he is able to connect the dots of what needs to be done and would rather not attempt to do those things? He would rather stay as COAS and not be bothered with attempting to do the "Right Thing" for Pakistan?
I am not suggesting that Pakistan is savable in its current condition, but am wondering if some at the Kayani level and similar high levels in the Pakistani Leadership have known what needed to be done over the years and just hadn't been up to at least trying to turn things around. It is hard to believe that Pakistan has had so many decades of clueless Leadership.
Editor's response Pakistan's tragedy has been that from the very start, after the death of the great leader and founder of the country Jinnah, it has had leaders interested only in a selfish pursuit of power and self-enrichment. India too has suffered from this, but on the whole its leaders have been more dedicated to the country than is the case with Pakistan. This is not the place to discuss the issue, but had India had moderately good leaders at the center and the states, as it mainly has now, the country would likely have been far ahead of China. Pakistan's current leaders are no different. As Mandeep Singh Bajwa said in a discussion Editor had with him the other day, "Kayani will take Pakistan down with him". The good general cares not a fig for Pakistan.
He is already the actual ruler of the country and tells the President and Prime Minister what to do. US officials talk to him first and to the civilian government as an afterthought.
He on purpose does not want to be out in the front because (a) the problems are so many, and (b) his plan to be become President after "reluctantly" conceding to popular demand. That popular demand is growing: people are so appreciative he hasn't staged a coup that as things continue to get worse they are happier for him to take over. Hasn't reached the tipping point yet, though.

January 7, 2011

China to have 5-carrier force by 2020s says Aviation Week. Three will be conventional, including the Varyag purchased from Russia, and two will be nuclear powered. China will also build the surface escorts and submarines required for it carrier task groups.
Two words come to mind: Sitting Ducks. But of course, China has no intention of sending its carriers up against the US Navy. And short of the US Navy, a five-carrier force will represent an impressive expansion of Chinese naval power. With one carrier for training, China can send to sea a task group of two carriers. Quite enough to make China Top Navy Dog against anyone else but the US. India in particular might need to pay a wee bit more attention to its own naval programs.
As for the Chinese anti-carrier ballistic missile, while the US Navy has every right to play up the threat as a way of getting additional funding, Editor's reaction is: "Please someone give us a break." This missile is as threatening as a toy airplane. Even with seasats, finding a US Navy carrier at sea is very difficult. Targeting it is even more difficult. And actually hitting it - all we're going to say is that the US is prepared for the threat.
The Chinese 5th Gen fighter: nice looking, and might have impressed someone back in 1985.
The military is one area where the theory of the thing is about a hundred times easier than the practice of the thing. China has come a very long way from 1980 in every aspect of military equipment, to the point Editor can freely admit he is impressed. But equal or better the US? Not in 2030. And not in 2050 either unless the US completely collapses economically.
Signs of the Times: Pakistan Punjab's murder The bodyguard shot at the Punjab governor three separate times. The rest of the 8-man detail simply stood aside and neither saw, nor heard, or spoke evil. The man has been produced in court twice. Both times he was showered with rose petals by Pakistani lawyers. The man was to appear before the Anti-Terrorist Court in Rawalpindi. His supporters - including lawyers - picketed the Rawalpindi court. The authorities hastily decided to change the venue to a protected building in Islamabad. Except the pickets would not let the judge leave Rawalpindi for Islamabad until the judge accepted the picketers demand that the accused be brought to Rawalpindi court. Times of India says none of Lahore (the capital of Pakistan Punjab) has agreed to lead the funeral prayers for the slain governor.
So, folks, anyone wanna guess how this trial is going to go? State institutions in Pakistan have become so weak that no judge in his right man is going to convict the accused.
http://www.dawn.com/2011/01/06/taseer%E2%80%99s-murderer-mumtaz-qadri-presented-in-atc.html
Almost on par with Hubble's "Pillars of Creation" fotos is one the Europeans have taken of galaxy M31, otherwise known as Andromeda, at 2.5-million-lightyears the closest galaxy to our own. Using new ultra advanced space telescopes, the scientists got infra-red and X-ray images of M31, and combined them. Both types of radiation are absorbed before reaching earth, so no one could imagine what a spectacular sight is M31. Click http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/8242686/Telescopes-capture-spectacular-image-of-Earths-nearest-galaxy.html
Science takes another beating First there's the news that the British researcher who linked vaccines to autism faked his data and was being paid off by people who planned to use his findings to sue vaccine makers. (Holy Batman, we thought this kind of thing happened only in America.) Next comes news that the Great Pacific Garbage Patch is not twice the size of Texas. It is 200-times smaller. As one scientist says, the true size is not trivial, but there is a difference between previous bandied around figures and the reality.
On the one hand you can say "Look, scientists are human, and prey to the same temptations of fame and money as any other human beings. Why hold scientists to a higher standard?" True. But on the other hand, science has become our religion because science promises its mysteries are grounded in impartial research and analysis. So scientists should be held to a higher standard, just as we hold our religious priests to a higher standard than we expect of ourselves.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/8241265/Great-Garbage-Patch-in-the-Pacific-Ocean-not-so-great-claim-scientists.html
Expect South Sudan to vote for independence this coming Sunday. The issue still not resolved is an area which contains lucrative oil fields and is claimed by both sides. Meanwhile, we expect the secession vote will step up pressure on Khartoum to led Darfar go, but such a development, if it takes place, is years down the road.
China closes on the US in terms of power generation We learn from Xinhua of China that in September 2010, Chinese installed power-generating capacity reached 0.9-Terawatts, just short of the US's 1-TW. so expect China to overtake the US in this key component of industrial power by 2012.
What chance does the tuna have? Very little, it would seem. Asahi Shimbun of Japan reports a 342-kilo bluefin sold for $1155/kilo.
ROK GDP is 37-times more than DPRK's according to ROK statistics, says South Korea's Chosun Ilbo, $837-billion versus $22-billion. Someone needs to take a serious look at the DPRK armed forces. There is no manner in which DPRK can possibly maintaining the large numbers of AFVs and artillery pieces with which it is credited with a $22-billion GDP.
DPRK has a $1000 per capita income compared to India's 2011 per capita of $1300. India maintains about 1.3-million personnel at a true cost of $41-billion/year. Lets assume DPKR is spending 20% of GDP on defense, a backbreaking percentage in peacetime. Then it is spending ~$5000 per person in its armed forces of ~1-million compared to ~$30,000 per person for India. if you look at India's army, which is 1.1-million, you will see it is not not particularly equipment intensive. Only around 1/6th of the Indian army is mechanized. (These are back-of-envelope calculations.)
Editor would love to do an analysis, but lets face it: when you're hanging by the phone from 6 AM to 9 PM hoping to get a substitute teacher call for a net of $110/day, you don't have much time left over to do a serious analysis of anything.

January 6, 2011

One year on: the Dubai killing revisited Readers will recall last year a Hamas operative was reportedly killed in Dubai, it is said by Israel's Mossad. They will also recall the diplomatic storm when it was found that the accused killers had used foreign passports including British and German.
Luxembourg alerts us to an article by Israeli journalist Ronen Bergman in GQ Magazine (January issue). Two things stood out, to the Editor's mind. First, the Dubai police edited out four hours of the surveillance camera records that show the Hamas operative met with an Iranian official. That was the purpose of the Hamas gentleman's visit, as he was a weapons procurer for Hamas, and one of the reasons the Israelis wanted him dead. But by their action, the Dubai police helped stoke anti-Israeli sentiment.
Second, Editor spent much time wondering why the allegedly highly professional Mossad would conduct such a sloppy operation. Mr. Bergman says it was simple arrogance. The Israelis simply could not imagine that the Dubai police would do the very professional job they did in tracking down those involved. This is an explanation that sounds reasonable. Editor has not been to Dubai in 20 years, but he was highly surprised and impressed by the way the little kingdom is now able to track everyone's movements and to obtain records of their phone calls. Dubai is the last place you would think was so efficient. Of course, Dubai uses foreign companies for its security and surveillance; nonetheless, arrogance does lead to blindness and this is what apparently happened to Mossad.
One aspect of the killing the Israelis did not bungle: to this day no one knows how the Hamas operative actually died. There is no forensic proof he was killed. Rather, Hamas called the Dubai police after its operative failed to return, and the Dubai police undertook a meticulous investigation that identified Who Done It. While its a reasonable supposition the Hamas man was murdered, given all the people leaping around like gazelles, following him and going in and out of his room, in a court of law there would be no proof he was killed. Of course, entering/leaving Dubai on forged passports is probably enough to get one put away for a good stretch.
James Webb on the myths of Vietnam reader Flymike sends an article by the senator, author, and Vietnam vet where Mr. Webb discusses some myths about Vietnam. Two that struck me: Vietnam was not a draftee's war: 73% of those who were killed volunteered, and an astounding 91% of those who joined the service said they were glad to serve their country.
Yes, a substantial number of those men would likely not have volunteered if there hadn't been a draft. But considering the Civil War, World Wars I and II, and Korea did have drafts, it remains to be seen if 73% of the men who fought in those wars were volunteers.
Second, there is no such thing as "the Vietnam generation". There are two completely separate Vietnam generations. Those that served in the military, and those that did not. It would be wrong to equate the two generations, or - as many of those who did not serve believe - that they are somehow superior. Indeed, I have argued that those who did not serve are inferior.
Myreasoning is simple. Because going to college earned one a deferment, and because in the 1960s 75% of Americans did not go to college (if I recall the percentage right), a much higher percentage of poor and lower income boys went to the war than the better off. A society in which the less well off serve and those who are better do not, cannot be a society in which the shirkers have any right to rule the country.
It does not matter if you thought the war was wrong. It was still your duty to go, to provide leadership for those less well educated or poorer, to take the first bullet. If you do not understand what I mean, please read a history of the British Army of World War I. Webb makes the point most excellently when he notes that "Harvard College , which had lost 691 alumni in World War II, lost a total of 12 men in Vietnam from the classes of 1962 through 1972 combined. Those classes at Princeton lost six, at MIT two."
Particularly if you were a member of the elite - and while you may not have been one before you came to Harvard or Princeton or MIT, you certainly became one by virtue of attending, it was your duty to serve. I have told the story here, earlier, of the 30-odd ROTC officers of the Class of 1967 at my college, just three volunteered for the combat arms. Two of the three went to serve in Europe. One - precisely ONE - officer volunteered for Vietnam. I happened to be present when the duty assignments for the Class of 1967 were read. and I very well remember the jeering and groans (as in "gosh, you are just so stupid") this young man faced.
My roommate at college is an example of a young man who did the right thing. He came to college on a ROTC scholarship. He served for four years in the Navy. After he left service, he became a vocal anti-Vietnam critic.
And my friend at the same college who was a Quaker, of whom I have also told, also did the right thing. In front of his draft board, he said that as a Quaker he could seek alternative service. But even though he was a Quaker, he said, he would fight for America if America were attacked. But he would not fight for America in a war of aggression. You can imagine how this went over with his draft board, mostly blue-collar workers and veterans of World War II and Korea. It went over like the Titanic. He was sentenced to five years in prison, the maximum sentence.
It is no accident that some in the Vietnam generation which did not serve have so idolized their fathers's service in World War II. It is a way of making up for their guilt at having let themselves, and their country down during Vietnam. They say: "But you see, we are not against war: we admire our fathers for having fought Germany and Japan. We are all for good wars. We are against bad wars."
Easy to say now that these gentlemen suffer from enlarged prostrates and have at least two major joints made of artificial material. Easy to say now that your country cannot call on you to serve in the wars we are fighting.
But gentlemen, just as you cannot choose the country in which you are born, you cannot choose between good and bad wars. You can refuse, like my friend, and take your punishment. Or you can serve, like my roommate, and then become anti-war. Both these young men, in differing ways, followed the adage "My country right or wrong".
These days we are all terribly patriotic. Is it a coincidence that of the 3-million Americans who turn 18 each year, something like 96% do NOT serve? It's easy to be a patriot when someone else is doing the fighting and the dying. That is today's America, and one of the many reasons we are a declining nation.

January 5, 2011

Pakistan releases top AQ-linked terror leader

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2011/01/pakistan_releases_to.php

Bill Roggio explains how ISI often takes key personnel being hunted by the US into protective custody to get them out of the line of fire, and later releases them.

Pakistan Punjab Governor murdered by a bodyguard. The bodyguard said he was upset at the governor's stand against Pakistan blasphemy laws. Vikhir Kradiac tells us that pressure is building up to free the killer.
To use the trite American phrase, the Punjab governor's murder will have "a chilling effect" on the small number - and rapidly dwindling - of people in that country taking a stand for religious moderation.
Why Editor frankly admires the Pakistanis Time magazine says that the Pakistanis are telling the US they cannot defeat insurgencies in their tribal areas because of the sanctuaries the insurgents enjoy in Afghanistan. How can anyone not admire a country that takes reality, turns it upside down, and accuses its accuser of the same thing its accuser alleges, in reverse?
Of course, these verbal debating points score no points with the Americans and just get them mad as heck. Not that the Americans do anything to Pakistan. Talk about a sick codependent relationship. The tragedy is the US will still escape the consequences. It will go home. The forces that have now been unleashed in full force will take Pakistan down and destroy the country. Your ordinary Pakistani cannot go home because he already IS home.
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2040295,00.html
Kazakhstan leaders outdoes Hugo President Nursultan Nazarbayev, age 70, was supposed to face elections in 2012. Instead, there will be no more elections till 2020, when the old boy will be 80. First the Prez got his supporters to undertake a signature drive asking he be permitted to rule without elections. Next he persuaded the Election Commission to accept a "national referendum" in place of elections. Since a Kasakh duck can't quack without the Prez's permission, you can see where this referendum is going to head.
Even Hugo couldn't pull off something like this. But Hugo should not despair, he is a spring chicken compared to Nazarbayev. So Hugo has plenty of time to come up with something more spectacular, like no elections to 2050. Hugo can use the Australia floods as his excuse: Venezuela needs to help Australia and for that Venzuela cannot afford the distraction of elections or the obstruction of insufficiently enlightened citizens. (Mr. Hugo, in exchange for our clever political advice, kindly send the check to Editor care of PayPal. Currency denominated in US Dollars, please. We appreciate America is fading out, but if its bolivars as opposed to US dollars, we'll take the latter,. Nothing person, its just business.
You caint get no satisfaction in the Big Apple Man decides he can't take it any more, does a Goodbye Cruel World by leaping from a 9th Floor window. Man lands on garbage uncollected because of the big snowstorm on December 26. Man is in hospital in critical but stable condition.
Unless man has insurance, he will likely get a bill for somewhere between $100,000 and $200,000 for his medical care (our estimate). At which point he will have to again do a Goodbye Cruel World.
Better luck next time, fella. America's the Land of the Free, and that means a man should be free to kill himself if that's what he wants.
Unless the man now brings a lawsuit against the City of New York for forcing him to live by failing to clear garbage. Should be good for $10-million at least.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/8237760/Man-who-jumped-out-of-window-saved-by-New-York-garbage.html

January 4, 2011

African diplomats try for Ivory Coast compromise which basically means safe passage for the former president who is alleged to have fixed the elections and got reelected. He has been refusing to quit. His supporters have threatened to attack the UN/French protected hotel where his opponent, declared winner by the international community, is lodged. The "general" who was threatening to attack the hotel says he will wait to give talks a chance. If neccessary, says he, his men will attack the hotel and barehanded send Ivory Coast's enemies to the grave, no matter to which army they belong.
Right. May we expect the loquacious general to lead the bare-handed assault?
China now buying Spanish Government debt Earlier China was buying Greek debt. While undoubtedly China's state-controlled capitalism gives it a big edge in using money to support external non-economic aims, China surely has to consider if buying influence by buying debt from heavily indebted European nations is the best way to expand its influence in the continent. We cannot imagine that the Government will consider losing a few ten billions here and a few there as fair exchange for possible influence.
US deploys Gorgon Stare We'd mentioned this multiple camera surveillance system which can simultaneously watch an entire town thanks to its nine cameras and other sensors. The system is being prepared for Afghanistan deployment.
This said, why "Gorgon Stare"? The Gorgons were three sisters who turned anyone who looked at them to stone. What's the connection here, DOD?
Perseus defeated the most famous Gorgon, Medusa, by looking at her in his polished shield instead of directly while cutting off her head.
No need to mention Gorgon Stare will be very useful to a police state.

January 3, 2011

Somalia peacekeepers strengthened The African Union mission to Somalia has at long last reached full strength, with 4 battalions from Burundi deployed and five from Uganda. The problem is the situation has deteriorated since the 8000-troop requirement was first formulated. Current estimates are 20,000 troops are needed. The present deployment permits no more than control of some Mogadishu vital areas like the air- and sea-port, parliament, and some vital roads.
Uganda says it is willing to send more troops providing the bill is picked up by the international community. This is a reasonable request. What astounds orbat.com is the timidity with which other African countries have reacted and their refusal to send troops. They don't want to risk either a 1993 situation when the US/UN mission collapsed after the US lost 18 troops in fighting in Mogadishu; or an Islamist terror backlash. But Burundi and Uganda has soldiered on regardless of the risks. African countries have to decide what is riskier: letting Somalia fall to Islamists and earning an ill-bought short-term peace with the Islamists, after which the Islamists will take the war to other countries; or to fight to secure Somalia, in which case the long-run problem will be much less acute.
Europe has absolutely no stomach for more involvements, and the US is way overcommitted globally. A half century has passed since African nations began throwing off colonialism's yoke. That is long enough that they can be expected to look after Afr5ican security, as they are doing in Darfar and other African countries.
Pakistan Government now in minority as its major alliance part, the MQM of Sindh, has pulled out of the coalition. The defections by MQM and another party are purely part of the game of politics. No one seems anxious to pull down the government by staging a vote of no-confidence, Intensive back room negotiations are underway; let's see if defectors get what they want and change their mind.
While its true the Army and not the civil government is the real power in Pakistan, combined with an assault on the President (usual corruption charges from the past), a minority government means that civil institutions are further weakened.
Do not expect General Kayani to take over. He is not like the generals of the past, who would have stepped in by now. He knows the he cannot run the government. This does not mean that a coup is completely out of the question. Support for the military is rising after a huge decline during the Musharraf era, not because Pakistanis have suddenly come to love their military, but because they long for stability. If a big majority of Pakistanis ask for the good General K to take over, he will change his mind. Our intelligence sources in Washington (oh, sorry about that, that's Debka's line) - we mean our intelligence sources somewhere or the other say that General K is nowhere near the point he's willing to take over. His inclination is - if the current government falls - to support a new civilian government 2who will be even more beholden to him. Current government thought they could stand up to him; boy, did they beaten down.
Road rage is not a good idea when you have a large amount of cash in your car. UK Telegraph reports that the driver of a Fiat 600 would not give way to the driver of a Ferrari, so the Ferrari repeated banged into the rear of the Fiat, eventually driving it onto the shoulder. Whereupon Ferrari driver broke the window of the Fiat and started to beat the Fiat driver. By which time an off-duty policeman, notified by motorized, arrived and called for backup. Whereupon the Ferrari driver's friend, who had hitherto been in the Ferrari, joined the attack on the Fiat driver. Whereupon both the Ferrari men were arrested and the cash discovered.
So you still might have an innocent explanation for possessing a large sum of cash, but turns out the Ferrari driver/friend were "known to the police". Uh Oh. This episode took place in Italy. Double Uh Oh.
Should Australian PM ask for emergency powers? "Biblical" floods in Australia (which has been suffering from severe drought) have affected an area as large as France and Germany together. 200,000 people have been affected. In other words, the floods are far worse than those in Venezuela, where Hugo said he needed emergency powers to rule by decree because of the disaster in his country. Clearly time for the the new Oz Prime Minister to obtain emergency powers, change the constitution, shut down the media, detain the opposition, nationalize industries, impose price controls, shut golf courses, redistribute wealth, and so on. Hugo has shown the way.
Letter from Reader Mandeep Bajwa I feel we here at Orbat.Com are falling behind the times. For one thing we have no presence on social networking media like FB and Twitter. I would suggest that we start an Orbat.Com page on FB. This would also enable us to make genuine fans as well as expand our readership. A Twitter account would allow us to disseminate all kinds of information and increase our own readership.

Our updates also need more dissemination. We can provide the 'Add Me' feature so as to allow readers to link to our articles. That shouldn't be a problem. So what about it ?

Editor's response Any volunteers? No way Editor can handle this as well as other stuff.

January 2, 2011

Give Washington a Jelly Bean for finally figuring out that while Pakistan's de facto ruler, General Kayani (the Chief of army staff) listens to the American very politely, he refuses to be their running dog. Had Washington consulted the Editor when General Kiyani was appointed Chief, they wouldn't have had this painful period where just because the General smiles and nods (he says little) the Americans thought they were making progress with him. Editor has been saying from the start he is no one's man except his own. But - like children - the Americans had to learn this the hard way.
The immediate issue is, of course, the offensive the US wants Pakistan to undertake against the Taliban in North Waziristan, or as Bill Roggio of Long War Journal calls it, North Wazoo. General K. does not want to do an offensive because the Taliban there, the Haqqanis, are good Taliban and a critical strategic resource. He does not want, he will not do.
At which point you may well ask: Well, none of the other Pakistani offensives were real offensives anyway, so why doesn't General K oblige with a mock offensive? Good question.
There are three reasons. (a) He's savvy enough to know the Americans have figured out those Pakistani "offensives", and will not be satisfied with a show. (b) He knows the Americans are losing in Afghanistan and will be gone soon, and he sees no reason to associate with losers, except to take American money. Hey, you say, that's really sordid. Not at all. Everyone is happy to American money, including Editor (the problem is the Americans have never offered him the right price). If the US is stupid enough to give the Pakistanis a few billions each year, why or earth should General K refuse it? (c) The Americans are doing their best to exclude Pakistan from the "final" Afghan settlement. (Austin Powers quotation marks because all the settlement will do is leave the way open for Pakistan to enter Afghanistan in force, and we'll be back to 1996). Excluding Pakistan makes perfect sense from the American - and Afghani view, not to say Indians, Central Asian and so on. But General K is mad as heck at the exclusion, and he has told the Americans they can either make it easy on themselves and hand Afghanistan to Pakistan, or General K is going to take it anyway.
There is a fourth reason, and we don't expect Washington to understand. General K is a very proud man, and he doesn't like being condescended to.
Before you think Editor is a fan of General K, let Editor makes two things evident. One, yes, he admires General K for standing up to Washington because no Pakistani general has stood up to Washington. It's about time America understood not every brown man is for sale. (And understood that while brown men like Editor are for sale, they have standards, please. After all Editor was brought up in America.)Two, General K is about the most anti-Indian general to become Chief in Pakistan. He is determined to win Kashmir (as a start) and when he has settled his back yard (Afghanistan), he will revive the offensive against India, which truthfully has never ceased.
So by no means are we fans of General K.
As an aside, the first time Editor was recruited by the Americans was in 1972. A gentleman at the Embassy in Delhi recruited him in exchange for a genuine cheeseburger and a genuine chocolate milkshake. After a highly satisfying meal, Editor managed to a couple of pieces of information about the Indian Army from the gentleman. Then, having being brought up in church schools, and particularly in America as an Episcopalian, Editor has this thing about telling the truth. So he told the person that actually his field was the US Navy and US forces in Indochina, and he didn't know a thing about the Indian Army. Editor was immediately fired.
A story on the DPRK forces One could get really alarmed at reading stories like the on Defense News presents on DPRK http://defensenews.com/story.php?i=5342772&c=ASI&s=LAN One piece of information is that DPRK has increased its "special forces" to 200,000 troops. Of course, you really have to yawn and not get alarmed. How can one of every five DPRK soldiers be Special Forces? DPRK can say anything it wants, but we don't have to take it seriously. Two hundred thousand SF is probably more than the rest of the world put together, at which point if you are from India you say "Dal may kuch kala hai", which means "There is something black in the legumes", which is an inelegant way of saying "this sounds suspicious."
In India you normally use this phrase when you wake up to the sounds of your wife gasping and panting, and when you go "What the..." a figure jumps out from her side of the bed and disappears through the window into the night, and you ask what's going on, and your wife says "So sorry sweetie, I thought you were making love to me." At which point you twist the edge of your mustache between thumb and forefinger, and wisely pronounce "Dal may kuch kala hai." Us Indians are very wise indeed.
Then, DPRK is supposed to have added 200 tanks for a total of 4100. That's nice. How much of that is junk? How many tanks are going to remain functioning after driving 200-km? This 4100 figure is like IISS Military Balance saying Russia has 23,000 tanks. Actually, Russia has 2000 tanks and 21,000 large pieces of scrap metal.
Another story from Defense News: Japan is developing high-altitude, high-endurance UAV's which will cost (gulp) $30-million without sensors and ground equipment. But then we recalled that Japanese F-15s cost $100-million each, more than twice the US price. And that was without the engines, wings, undercarriage, and cockpit. (Only kidding.)
Thank you Canada (Not) for messing up your household debt situation just at the point the Editor has been (a) extolling the virtues of the thrifty Canadians; (b) cautiously looking at Canadian schools in the backwoods in case his savings run out before he gets a job back here.
Business Week (January 3, 2011) tells us that Canadian household debt now exceeds US: 148% of income versus US 147%. Part of the problem is that the Canadian dollar has been trading almost at par with the US dollar; interest rates are cheap; Canadians want bigger houses; and - one supposes - they are tired of being frugal. There can't be a housing bubble as Canadians have to put down 20% for a mortgage, but to slow the rise of the Canadian dollar, Canada may have to raise interest rates. That may increase Canadian house owner repayments. (Do they have variable rate mortgages in Canada?.)
While we are beating up the Canadians for being no better than the Americans, we might note that the Indians, who previously saved and saved and saved because there is no social security, there were no mortgages or car loans, and because your typical Indian really did himself if he needed the latest fad, are now going into debt on massive scales and going bankrupt too. Its insignificant compared to America, but this is not a good development.

January 1, 2011

Suspect arrested in Danish plot has two previous jihadi arrests

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/12/danish_newspaper_plo.php

When this gentleman is that when he and his girlfriend were first arrested, in Somalia, they said they were merely seeking "authentic" Muslim experiences as tourists. International media picked up the story, and New York Times wrote an article, completely buying their line, for which it had no evidence but the word of the suspects, as if suspects are going to be truthful. Arrested a second time, in Pakistan. the couple pulled the same trick "we are only tourists". Now he is under arrest for planning an attack on a Danish newspaper because of cartoons the newspaper published. So the odd thing is how the media creates narratives, claiming to be objective, but actually creating fiction. If you read the Long War Journal story, you will see another case where the media created its own reality. This person had been held at Gitmo after fleeing Tora Bora. He too became a cause for anti-American elements and anti-Gitmo people who said he was innocent person, and he was freed. After you read his story, you will be amazed anyone thought he was an innocent person.

None of this means we support indefinite detention of "enemy combatants" without trial. That is a crime against humanity when (a) you have not declared war and (b) your "war" could be carried on for the next hundred years. We've said this before: try the people whom you capture; if guilty, execute them for fighting from within the civilian population without a uniform. If you can't find them guilty, let them go. letting the people mentioned in the Long War Journal story go was the right thing to do. what we're criticizing is the media's automatic assumption that someone it likes is innocent just because a government is their accuser. Sure, governments lie. And - surprise - so do suspects.

Go West, young lady If you stand at any point in the US and keep traveling west, you arrive in China. With the decline of America and the rise of China, many of our readers - and the Editor - make jokes about how we'd all better learn Chinese.
Joke no more. Business Week (January 3, 2011) says the Chinese are increasingly investing in factories in America to avoid heavy duties and/or to be nearer their main customers.
Further, after years of soaking up foreign investment like a sponge left in the Sahara sun for a hundred years, this year (2011) will see the first Chinese net investment overseas. No fans of the Chinese, we; nonetheless, in all fairness it needs note that within the very short space of thirty years, China has turned from being a capital importer to a capital exporter. (We casually date China's opening up as starting in 1980.) This is remarkable.
So jokes aside, may be we all had really better start learning Chinese. Mrs. R. IV has a master plus in Chinese, and when we were India, she used to do technical/scientific translation for a government agency. Since Editor has a good working knowledge of science and technology, not to say defense, Editor used to help her out with the translation work. One of the more interesting papers she translated was a Chinese military experiment on remote action at a distance using mind-power alone. If you're familiar with American defense para-psychological research, you'll know this was also a hot topic with the Americans. The official story is it didn't yield results so the research was terminated. Of course, if it did yield results, US is not going to be shouting about it from the rooftops. You don't people remotely deactivating your N-warheads, for example.
An American para-psychological acquaintance told Editor in 1966, when Editor was wandering around the world looking for a date on Saturday night (you can see this lack of a date on Saturday night problem is nothing new) that the Americans had gotten to the point of having a test subject walk to a bank teller and get the teller to hand over money from another person's account.
Of course, Editor was skeptical. If you use a Marilyn Monroe look-alike (back in Editor's day women were women, not stick figures with hair that looks like they've spent the night under a hedge with the field mice nibbling away at it), and have her approach a middle-aged teller, obviously it's no surprise the teller is handing over rolls of twenties. (Back in Editor's day, twenty dollar bills were BIG bills; minimum wage was $1 and a Chevvy Impala cost less than $3000, and a 4-bedroom townhouse in the working class suburbs of Cambridge, Massachusetts cost $35,000.)
If Editor were a bank teller, and a Marilyn Monroe look-alike told him to hand over money belonging to someone else, he is not so shallow as to be entranced and comply. Instead he would merely hand over the keys to Fort Knox.
So, you ask, what were the results of the Chinese study? It was done under controlled conditions, but Editor doesn't know enough about the science of setting up experiments to tell if all was legit. The study reported positive results, but could not find a cause for the effect in terms of our current understanding of physics.
Before Mrs. R IV came to the states, Editor lined up interviews for her with translating firms, who said, don't bother with resumes, just come and interview. So when she did, we found since she was not a US citizen, only a resident alien, she could not get those jobs. It took Mrs. R IV five years of doing grubby work before qualifying as a school teacher. For every day of those five years she quietly cursed Editor for bringing her to America. Editor being brought up in America sees nothing wrong with doing grubby work, but can admit that to someone brought up as a member of the elite in one country, being a shop girl in another is not a positive experience. She never forgave Editor, and that episode was 90% of the reason Mrs. R IV split as fast as she could, when youngest was a senior in high school.
At which point you will say, "Editor, you deserve a severe beating for not realizing Mrs. R. could not get the good translating work without citizenship." Possibly. But remember, Editor had been away for 20 years. In his day, a Green Card (Alien Registration Card) was acceptable for most government contracts. By the time he returned, everyone had Green Cards and they meant nothing.
By the way, whenever Editor tells people he was away for twenty years, eight of ten people assume he was in jail for murder. This is because most Americans cannot understand why anyone would WANT to be away from America for twenty years. They assume the person is either an idiot or a murderer. As to why they don't assume he is an idiot, which is the truth, well that's another story. Maybe next New Year's.
Editor is really bad at languages. Being from Mars (really) he is barely functional in English. His Chinese vocab consists of three words: "Nie how ma?" If you know that means "How are you?"", you are ahead of the game. When the Chinese are hiring in your locality and you see Editor also in line, for your own sake don't acknowledge you know him. This is because even if Americans are not smart enough to figure out a murderer from an idiot, the Chinese are.

December 31, 2010

Mission Accomplished: Christians in Iraq Dwindle Of course the US did not intend to rid Iraq of its Christians when it invaded in 2003, but there are a lot of things the US did not intend, such as strengthen Iran, but these bad things happened anyway. 1.4-million Christians lived in Iraq under Saddam; now 500,000 are left. And since insurgents started to specifically target Christians, such as yesterday's 10 bomb attacks on Christian home, many more are fleeing.
In many a picture of Iraq and Afghanistan, you will see US soldiers praying. Its a reasonable assumption most are Christians. So it's a bid ironical that the the saviors of Iraq and Afghanistan get to pray freely, but no one in Washington gives a dented wooden nickel for Iraqi Christians. They didn't have the best time while Saddam was around, but they survived. Now US has freed Iraq, and the Christians are not surviving.
This is just one more reason we think the United States should immediately stop all interventions overseas. You have a power elite that doesn't have the slightest clue as to what it is doing. This elite needs to be restrained with an anchor chain and a big muzzle before it further damages US interests and people overseas whose only fault is to be in the way when Uncle Sam Gulliver tramples the ground.
Côte-d'Ivoire We haven't been covering the crisis there because we thought it would be quickly resolved. It hasn't. The opposition candidate for president was said by observers and the UN to have won the vote. The current prez said "Over my dead body". He told the UN peacekeeping mission and French troops to leave, in part because the peacekeepers get in the way when the prez wants to kill his northern rivals (it was to stop that the UN intervened in the first place). Neither the French nor the UN has budged.
His rival is under UN protection because his life is worth less than a CFA Franc without UN protection. A CFA Franc is current 1/5th of a cent.
So now prez and his militia say they are going to attack the place where the opposition rival, who the international community says won the election, is housed. If this happens, there will be bloodshed because le prez will have to attack UN and French troops.
Much of what prez says is bluster; nonetheless, readers may want to keep an eye on this situation.
Congratulations to Israel Israel's eighth president, elected in 2000 for a 7-year term, was forced to step down in 2007 before his term ended because of rape allegations. This was not a case of one person accusing him of the crime. There were several incidents, some of them concerning sexual harassment. An Israeli court found him guilty on two counts of rape.
He could get as few as four years; the Israeli prosecutor is said to want 16, the maximum penalty.
Enter President/Prime Minister/Czar of Russia Mr. Putin. He is supposed to have told the Israeli leader Mr. Olmert that he envied the 8th president as a "mighty" man, since he was accused of raping 10 women. Mr. Putin did not deny he made the comment. Now, let's be honest: this is exactly the jokey reaction you are going to get from men when a white-haired grandfather is said to have committed multiple rapes. No one in their right men will deny that men are chauvinistic, insensitive and crude, and that's just as well, because otherwise they wouldn't be men (which some ultra-feminists will say would make an ideal world). But perhaps Mr. Putin should have been more discreet, even though politically correct the Russian Czar is not.
(It does not have to be said the Editor is jealous of Mr. Putin. The Czar doesn't seem to want for a date on Saturday night. Or any other day, morning, afternoon, evening, or night, either. The other day a cute young thing said Editor reminded her of Woody Allen. Not even close. Woody Allen never has a shortage of dates.)
Debka claims Pakistan holds 2 N-bombs for Saudi Reader Vikhr Kradiac sends us this URL http://debka.com/article/20505/ One can reasonably ask why these bombs are not in Saudi Arabia, particularly given the potential instability in Pakistan.

December 30, 2010

Al Qaeda In The Mahgreb ties up with Colombia's FARC in providing new drug smuggling routes. This jolly development in the GWOT is discussed at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/colombia/8230134/South-American-drug-gangs-funding-al-Qaeda-terrorists.html
We were interested to learn that AQITM does not tithe to Al Qaeda proper, which again underlines the point made several times over by anti-terrorism experts that AQ is not an organization like General Motors.AQ is a hydra-headed monster; and so far, when US brings down one group, there seem to be others that spring up in its place. And please to remember: terror ops cost very little to mount. A hundred thousand dollars suffices for a nice op. AQINTM is pulling in tens of millions annually from kidnapping for ransom and the drug trade.
The report says other governments have refused cooperation in combating this new trade. In South America only Colombia does what it can; in Africa no government is interested and in some countries some officials take a cut of the drug trade so obviously they have zero interest in quelling the traders.
Let us rush to assert that the US in its time has also used the drug trade to fund insurgents. We leave to others better informed to discuss this. But this is not a question of morality. Its a question of there is a a rapidly developing threat to the West. You now have AQ in Yemen and in Somalia and in the Mahgreb.
BTW, youngster reports that US airport security was really giving Pakistani passengers a hard time when he arrived back at Washington Dulles. Each passenger was being pulled from the arrivals and taken off for interrogation. He couldn't help feeling bad: when people are singled out because of their country, they get this real beaten down/kicked about look, particularly when they are from a poor, powerless country. Editor too felt bad. But the issue is, nothing can be done. 99% of Pakistanis have no love for terrorists and wish only the terrorists would leave them alone. But because of the 1%, the other 99% must suffer.
US Cancels Venezuela Ambassador's Visa say Venezuela diplomatic sources. US has not confirmed, but had warned it would retaliate for Hugo's refusal to accept the newly nominated US ambassador to Caracas.
Meanwhile, in another diplomatic row after Canada refused UAE additional landing slots, UAE imposed a $1000 fee for Canadians wanting a six-month multiple entry visa, which may be the highest such fee in the world. Canadian Government is unmoved, says it will not grant additional landing slots regardless.
Awwwww - Hugo's feelings are hurt Reader Luxembourg sends an article where Hugo says people call him a dictator, but he does so much for the people. Under the powers he now has to override opposition in the incoming parliament, he can rule by decree. His first 20 decrees are intended, he says, to deal with the emergency created by flooding, Back in India we have serious floods every year; if the Indian Prime Minister asked and obtained from Parliament the right to rule by decree to cope with the floods - and shut down golf courses, nationalize every industry in sight, and shut down the non-Governmental media, we have this feeling people would be calling him a dictator.
From reader Sparsh Amin The Indian Air Force's next Su-30 squadron will be No. 102, which used to operate the Foxbat MiG-25. He suspects a seventh Su-30 squadron is delayed because the IAF's tactical development/evaluation organization now has a Su-30 flight. And the Pakistan Navy Air Defense Battalion - which we mentioned the other day - has Mistral SAMs plus at least one more type.
Last, Editor and Mr. Amin had been discussion the PLAAF's decision to phase out Su-27s Flankers it inducted at the end of the 1990s, after less than 20-years of service. Mr. Amin wonders if these might be the first China-produced Flankers, which had serious quality and reliability issues.
China again cuts rare earths quota After cutting export quotas for rare earths by ~40% last year, China promised that it had no intent of reserving stocks for domestic consumption. This is apparently against GATT regulations, some American organizations are bring suit against India for restricting cotton exports due to soaring prices which has caused global prices to zoom.
So, in true Chinese style, after all the assurances, it has already announced another cut, for 2011.
Please to appreciate we are not blaming China for sharp dealing. We are blaming US for its super-negligence. Laws of supply and demand operate: Canada is reported looking at reopening closed facilities and ROK is to invest in Burma.
Is Social Security a tax or insurance? Reader Flymike points out, reasonably we feel, that it is a tax. For one thing, there is no money as such in the Trust Fund. The US Government annually takes the social security taxes to spend and issues IOUs to the fund. Further, it appears that the US Government in 2010 paid out approximately $400-billion more in social insurance programs included extended unemployment benefits and Medicare etc programs than it took in. So that $400-billion has to come from tax revenues or by adding to the deficit and thus the national debt.
Allen Sloan of the Washington Post explains why the $2.5-trillion Trust fund actually contains only funny money http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2010/08/09/AR2010080905559.html Editor gets $807/month in social security. To pay him, Government has to cash $807 worth of IOUs held by the Trust fund (we believe these IOUs are called Treasury bonds to make them look respectable). But who is going to buy the $807 worth of bonds the Treasury must cash each month for the Editor? The US Government buys the bonds. What does it pay with? More bonds that it issues.
Editor would like to ask readers: is Editor a nut case, or ill-informed, or stupid to think something is wrong with this set-up? It seems a scheme Hugo of Venezuela might have dreamed up, not the supposedly moral US Government.

December 29, 2010

No news again. After searching for something half decent we gave up as there is other work to be done.

Al Jazeera is owned by Indians says Dawn of Pakistan, which just happens to be Pakistan's leading newspaper. This according to an article Reader Jayant Moghe sends us, where he opines that this will be news to Indians. http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Opinions/Columns/28-Dec-2010/Distorting-Taliban-and-Islam
Further, Dawn believes 9/11 was a put up job by the US. That's fine, this theory has been going around since 9/11, but Dawn saying it is sort of like New York Times saying aliens are running Washington DC. Yes, many people undoubtedly believe that, but you don't see the NYT printing an article with that accusation.
We are completely baffled as to why anyone should think Al Jazz is owned by Indians. Al Jazz is just about the most pro-Islamic media source that is widely available in the west. What do Indians get by presenting a pro-Islamic viewpoint to the world? Since Al Jazz is funded in the Gulf, its not beyond the realm of possibility that an Indian businessman - who could be a Muslim - is an investor. But certainly no evidence is presented one way or the other.
Actually, you know, Editor is so dumb is frightening. He just figured it out: its not that Indians own Al Jazz, its that the CIA owns Dawn. Very cunning: by printing all these weird theories in Dawn, CIA bad-mouths Pakistan and Pakistanis and puts further pressure on Islamabad to open an offensive in North Waziristan. The whole thing is so obvious. It's equally obvious that Osama Bin Laden still works for the CIA, which wants the US to be in a perpetual state of war. After all, there are 1-billion Muslims in the world, so the GWOT will never be won. The Taliban are clearly CIA: they are recruited from the same cadres that the CIA recruited in its war against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan.
The question is, who runs the CIA? We thought you'd never ask: its Hugo Chavez. And who runs Hugo? The British monarchy and Venetian bankers. Its a conspiracy that goes back 500 years when the Brits and Venetians figured that one day oil would be scarce. Of course, oil had not been discovered then, but that shows the true genius of the British monarchy and Venice.

Letter from a reader in response to the above post

Since Editor is still awake, five hours past his bed time (it's the sins of the past keeping one awake thing) we're publishing this letter from a reader who requested anonymity. And of course our reader is absolutely correct, the URL says "The Nation" and not "Dawn". Best to write these posts before one gets tired.

First of all the newspaper you linked to isn't Dawn, it's The Nation.
Second The Nation isn't the largest English newspaper, it's probably the 3rd largest (hard to find exact statistics but Jang is probably 1st and Dawn 2nd). Not to mention Urdu and regional papers have much higher circulation.
Finally, the article is an op-ed, which means it wasn't published as news or as an opinion of the paper itself. It is simply the opinion of the writer itself. While op-ed writers are often chosen for matching the general stance of the paper itself, you will also find many papers that have widely divergent writers and even publish from controversial figures (NY Times publishing an op-ed from Moammar Qadaffi sometime in the last year or two comes to mind).

December 28, 2010

Another no news day, luckily a reader asked: "If my plane goes down in the Arctic and no one sees it, does it mean I'm not dead?" Were it that simple. Once the observer who fixed our universe into existence (collapsed the wave function) has done her/his/its work, our universe rolls on as long as the observer is around. So the observer can be God or some pimply-faced computer nerd (yes, there is a theory our universe is a hologram), it doesn't matter. Your plane crashes in the Arctic, you are done for. But don't despair. Another theory says that when your plane goes down, in one universe you die, but the instant your life takes a particular turn, the turns not taken split off as separate universes. You may be deader than a dead duck here but in another universe your plane miraculously recovers and you fly on. In yet other universes you don't have a plane, in others you fly over the Antarctic, and so on. The problem remains: there is no known way our universe can contact other universes. So as your plane goes down, you can't skip into the universe where your plane doesn't go down. Of course, these days scientists say that gravity is probably a leakage from another universe, so maybe one day one will be able to communicate with a multitude of other you. If you start doing that on earth in this universe, the men in the white coats roll up and start feeding you strong drugs. Unfortunate. And none of this resolves the problem of how the rent is to be paid on January 1 in this universe.

Malaysia think tank suggest Pakistan get UCAVs to counter India Some readers may be familiar with the Washington Post's humor writer, Gene Weingarten. Whenever Gene says "I am NOT making this up" you may be assured he IS making it up. But we REALLY are not making up the stuff about the Malaysia think tank telling Pakistan to go asymmetrical versus the Indian air Force because it cannot afford to meet the Indians on a one-to-one basis. Read http://livefist.blogspot.com/2010/12/muslim-think-tank-to-paf-get-ucavs-to.html
Two problems with this absurd approach. First, by all the time insisting it has many nuclear weapons, Pakistan has already gone asymmetric. That is the point of their N-weapons program. Second, UCAVs are very high technology and we're years away from effective deployment. When they do get deployed, it will be the US that does the think, after having spent billions - if not tens of billions - on R and D and certainly tens of billions on deployment.
Meanwhile, Bill Sweetman at Aviation Week discusses China's J-20, allegedly a stealth fighter under development. Go to http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/ and look at the right hand edge of the screen for Aviation Week blogs.
Pakistan Navy Air Defense Battalion We didn't know about this, but it exists and provides air defense for naval bases along the Pakistan coast. The type of missiles it uses are not identified. You can see one missile on a pedestal type launcher in this photograph at http://www.dawn.com/2010/12/28/surface-to-air-missiles-tested-by-pak-navy.htm
What passes for logic in the West When DPRK issues belligerent statements threatening war, as far as the west is concerned, that's fine. But when ROK in its turn says if it is attacked it will retaliate, West says in case of another DPRK provocation this could lead to war. Incredible and amazing. Read about it http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/southkorea/8227042/South-Korean-president-ramps-up-aggressive-stance-towards-North.html
50 billion people had lived by 1 AD; by 2002 AD 106-billion had lived we just ran into this 1995 study by the Population Research Bureau thanks to a New York Times article: http://www.prb.org/Articles/2002/HowManyPeopleHaveEverLivedonEarth.aspx This has to cause a paradigm shift in our thinking about population growth in the past.
While this assertion may seem improbable, consider that the first 50-billion were born over 80,000 years, the next 46-billion over 2,000 years. So this is not as outlandish an estimate as it might appear at first

December 27, 2010

There is little news these days, one supposes because media people are on holiday. Which raises the question: if no media person was there to report, did an event happen? The correct answer is that if there is no observer, the tree did not fall. The universe exists in all possible states, simultaneously. An observer is need to fix a universe into an ordered state representing one possibility. Other universes get fixed or not fixed depending on if if there are observers and what they determine is reality. And no, a camera to record the tree is not an answer because the camera is a proxy for the observer. You need an observer to watch the camera. If this gives you a headache, please don't blame us. We're merely reporting what the scientists tell us. The Hindus of course worked this out a long time ago not by using the instruments and reasoning of science, but by contemplating their navels. Seriously. Of course, likely they were helped along with lavish use of what the US euphemistically calls "controlled substances". Except back in the day they were not controlled, and yes, for you green fanatics out there, the substances were pure organics. We'd love to discuss this further, but there's a herd of pink elephants banging on Editor's door for a Trick or Treat. You see, in their universe its Halloween. Must get out there immediately before the Pink Ellies take a giant, collective dump: City of Takoma Park levies giant fines for giant poopies not cleaned up. The City of Takoma Park is socialist and has banned nuclear weapons. Editor had to get rid of his obsolete, but still working, Titan II that he kept in his basement against the day those rotten commies invaded. Remind us to tell you the story.

Warring Somalia Islamist factions unite after two years of fighting each other, says Bill Roggio http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/12/shabaab_calls_on_al.php Hizbul Islam, the defeated faction, has subordinated itself to Shabaab, the dominant faction. Shabaab has called for "our brothers" in East Africa to join.
Meanwhile Dutch authorities in Amsterdam arrested 12 Somalis for participating in a terror plot. Since the terror alert status was not changed, media infers that an attack was not imminent.
Ah, to be French So the youngster decided to hie over to Lancaster, England to see his mother's family that lives there. Cheapest flight was Air France Dulles to Charles de Gaulle, and Air France CDG to Manchester from where its a quick train ride to Lancaster. So then came the bad weather. The Dulles-CDG flight was on the dot; he reached Manchester 8 hours behind schedule because flights were canceled, when they got a flight slot there was insufficient crew; when they got the crew together, the aircraft got stuck in a traffic jam on the taxiways; when they got over that the plane had to be deiced all over again.
Anyway. The French are the French, you either adore them or hate them. Every time Editor starts to hate them he reminds himself likely the Brits would have whomped the revolutionaries had the French not come to America's help, so really, one does owe them a debt.
Now, the problem in Europe has been a shortage of de-icing fluid, not so much the snow, which frankly has been quite pathetic. So what does the French factory that makes de-icer do? Yes, you guessed it, it goes on strike. Generally Editor is pro-worker because he's been a worker all his life, but at times like this you want to send in the Gendarmes in full gear and truncheons and break the heads of the strikers. (Americans who complain about police violence have not seen the French police in action. American police are like 20-year-old arthritic cats with no teeth or claws compared to the French police.)
Okay, so the problem is sorted out: Germany sent a truck-tanker of de-icer and the Americans flew in a plane-load worth of stuff.
But seriously, if the French don't want to be made fun of, they have to stop behaving like cliched cartoon characters. We know the French love to strike. But was this the time for the de-icer factory to do it? And wasn't this a national emergency? So what was the French Government doing? No doubt joining the strikers and singing "9999 red wine bottles".
Murkier situation gets murkier Remember Anna Chapman the - er - good-looking - Russian sleeper spy in America who was betrayed by someone along with nine other sleepers and expelled from the US? Remember allegations that it was an inside job? Well, here's something to add to the confusion.
UK Telegraph's Moscow correspondent says that the FSB (domestic intelligence) is warring with the SVR (external intelligence) because FSB was SVR combined with it to reform a KGB type organization. FSB is whacking SVR over the head with the Anna Chapman scandal, saying the SVR is incompetent and needs to be fixed.
So who used to be the head of the FSB and spent his KGB carrier in internal intelligence aside from a short excursion overseas? Yes, none other than He Man Prime-Minister/Czar of Russian Mr. Putin. If you have a suspicious mind (which Editor certainly does not, his life is like an open book with blank pages), you might think that maybe there is some truth to the story blowing the America ring's cover was an inside job.
Read the story at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/8225794/Russias-biggest-spy-agencies-at-war.html and then sit down and write your spy novel based on it, over the rest of the holiday break. Else Mr. Putin just may do what the article says he wants to do and then people will say: "your book is so out of date." Here's a hint: you can make Anna Chapman Mr. Putin's illegitimate daughter by a beautiful, ruthless American lady spy who helped bring down the Soviet Union and advance Mr. Putin.

December 26, 2010

Mr. Wikileaks fears he will be murdered in US jail This is an obvious ploy to block his potential extradition from UK to the US. See, we keep saying the young man has to take his medication in timely fashion. If he gets extradited to the US, he will pray he is so lucky that he is murdered. Because the US will toss him into a SuperMax which is probably the safest place in the world in which you can be housed. And unless you are a mushroom, it is just about the worst place in the world to be housed.
Mr. Wikileaks is gratuitously advising the British Government that espionage is a political crime, and UK has the right to deny extradition for political crimes. This information will come as a surprise to the British, who have had their share of spies.
He further tells the British Government that extraditing will be politically difficult for the government because the people of Britain will be against his extradition.
Life is so simple in Mr. Wikileaks Land. May be for his peace of mind he is better off not taking his medication.
Read http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1341508/WikiLeaks-given-1-3m-2010-Julian-Assange-pays-thirds-salary-budget.html for information on Wikileaks budgets and salaries. Mr. Wikileaks draws $86,000, but that is the same department heads.
Excellent pictures from Afghanistan UK Daily Mail has some excellent photos from Afghanistan of US soldiers at an outpost returning Taliban fire in response to a sudden attack on Christmas Day. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1341519/No-truce-Afghanistan-Dramatic-pictures-capture-U-S-troops-repelling-Taliban-attack-Christmas-morning.html Everyone seems to be having fun.
We were confused as to how the soldiers know where to aim. Then we remembered US likes to put its outposts on the valley floor, which may not be the stupidest thing to do in a mountain war, but which must come fairly close. We went back to read the article. This particular platoon (Number 2, B-2/327 Infantry) is on a hill, and it is still below the enemy because the hill is surrounded by taller mountains. Oy Veh. That explains the angle at which they are firing.
Indian geosynchronous communication satellite lost on launch For some reason, India has had bad luck with its geosynchronous launch vehicle, with 5 of 7 launches failing. (Government says its 3 of 7, but independent observers give the higher figure). By contrast, its workhorse satellite launcher has had 15 consecutive successes. This being India, where science is conducted on an economy budget, the loss of the launcher and satellite cost barely $75-million. The 36-transponder satellite was to replace a communications satellite orbited 11 years ago.
China too has trouble with fighter engines Editor, like many Indians, is prone to bang his head against a stone wall every time the matter of Indian fighter engines comes up. Basically, the simplest way to look at it is that despite 40 years of work, India still buys fighter engines for its indigenous fighters from overseas.
We realize fighters are surprisingly difficult technologies to master, but we thought China, at least, had gotten this category right. Washington Post says apparently not. The Chinese engines have absurdly low overhaul hours, just 30-40, compared to Russian engines, which get 400-hours - which is quite pathetic to begin with.
This leads us to wonder: has anyone produced a life-cycle costing for Chinese and Russians weapons systems as opposed to western systems? We know the western systems have a much higher cost. But they last much longer. The Chinese Su-27s, we learn from Chinese defense blogs, that entered service in 1990-1991 are being withdrawn because they've reached their useful airframe life of 5000-hours. If we recall right, the F-16 has an 8,000-hour life extendable to 10,000-hours.
The Big Kahuna in the longevity stakes is the US B-52. The last B-52H, the model still flying on-and-on like the Energizer Bunny, would be a mere 48-years old this year. The aircraft will likely be around for at least a decade more.
American Believe It Or Not So this gentleman rents a house and the owners close off an area where they store their belongings. So the gentleman breaks into his landlords's storage area, and starts selling the stuff, some of which is pretty pricey So he gets busted. Up to now we can all be forgiven for saying :So?".
Well, the burglar's lawyer argues that his client suffers from delusions that make him think other people's things are his own.
And you thought Editor is delusional.

December 25, 2010

Merry Christmas

150 Taliban make night attack against 5 Frontier Corps posts in Mohmand, lose 24, kill 11

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/12/taliban_assault_paki.php

Not that anyone needs to be reminded who rules Pakistan but Dawn of Karachi reports the Army has rejected the UN probe report on the murder of former (and would-be again) leader of Pakistan, Mrs. Benazir Bhutto. It has forced the Government of Pakistan to write to the UN asking for a reopening of the enquiry.
Its easy to criticize the civilian government of Pakistan, and truthfully, there is a lot to criticize. at the same time, we should not forget who is master in the house. This makes everything twice as difficult for the civilian government.
http://www.dawn.com/2010/12/25/military-slammed-un-report-on-benazir-assassination-2.html
Meanwhile ISAF says that while the man it captured for smuggling arms from Iran into Helmand was responsible for arms smuggling, but he was not a Quds Force member. We're a bit surprised as generally NATO does not make these mistakes when it has someone in custody.
Also meanwhile, Washington Post says that the UAV offensive is taking a toll of Taliban in North Waziristan and forcing leaders to disperse, travel by motorcycle or walk, and eschew cell phones, the Taliban is retaliating by killing people it suspects of providing information for the drone attacks. No proof neccessary, someone simply has to give your name and you're dead. Were the GWOT so simple for the American side.
Russia orders 2 Mistral class LPH from France, options 2 more The Mistral costs $650-million, which seems a bargain considering it carries 750 troops, 16 helicopters, and 4 landing craft, has a 69-bed hospital, and is outfitted as a command ship. We still have not been able to figure out why Russia has gone overseas to get these ships instead of designing and building them itself.
Two faces of China China lets its ordinary citizens travel freely overseas. In 2010 one million Chinese visited the US; the number will double by 2015.
Meanwhile, a journalist who reported on the Uighur riots of last year has been sentenced to life in prison. He was a journalist for an official agency. He was accused of fanning riots and tried behind closed doors.
Advice to The Young We're quite late with this thought, but now that Wikileaks's fame and credibility has been established all over the world, all someone needs to do is to "leak" documents and cables to Wikileaks for leaking. of course the "leaker" organization has to be very careful to get things just right. Sometimes even a wrong turn of phrase can destroy the credibility of a "secret" document.
The general rule, if we may be permitted to give Advice to the Young, is to stick to something that is completely plausible and that people are predisposed to believe.
For example, here is a DON'T "Leaked cables reveal that Vice President Dick Cheney aimed to triple oil prices by invading Iraq and destroying its oil production." DO say: "Leaked cables reveal that the US expects its ability to defend Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea will decline as China rises. Accordingly, US has formulated a plan that will let these three countries go nuclear at short notice."
Now, Young People: here's your homework. Please explain why the Cheney allegation is not a good idea but the N-option allegation will work. Replies will be published.
Advice from The Young Letter to the Editor from reader Mark Russell Dear Editor, re. your problem of "No date on a Saturday Night or any other Night". I myself have not had this problem as I am in college in Boston, and indeed, my problem is the reverse: too many dates and too much action. I spoke with my Uncle who is a college professor in the area. He says you have two choices. (a) Make a billion dollars and be ready to spend it on women. (b) Become a university professor."
Well, we thank young Mark for his advice, which seems eminently reasonable. The billion dollars seems a stretch, considering these days Editor makes less than $2000/month - and that's with the Social Security. The university professor thing seemed more within reach; Editor has a bunch of masters degree and loves to study.
Editor called up the people who hold his student loans. The conversation went like this: "I'd like to do a PhD. Can I get loans?". Answer: "Let me check your records...ah. I see you have taken loans for one bachelor's, three masters, and you are currently enrolled in another bachelor's. Your total limit for loans is $131,000, and somehow you have managed to borrow $168,000. The only thing we can suggest is that you immediately repay $60,000 and we can extend you loans sufficient for any PhD."
Editor: "But if I had $60,000 I wouldn't need to ask for a loan for a PhD." Answer: "I understand, sir, but this is the only option."]
Editor: "By chance might you have a widowed grandmother? You sound like a nice young lady. I am sure I will like your grandmother." Answer: "My father's mom is a widow, but she's very well off and has a 30-year old Florida boytoy of Cuban descent. I see from your file you are (Censored) years old and have insufficient monthly income to keep my grandmother in rum even if you spent all your money for that purpose. My mother's mother would love to go out on a date, she is a fun lady, but she lives in Idaho and first you have to get through the dobermans, the barbed wire, the booby traps, the foo gas, and my grandfather who has 31 weapons including an illegal M60 medium machine gun. Are you prepared to die to get a date with my grandmother?"
Editor: "But what will be the point of a date with her if I am dead?" Answer: "I understand, sir, but this is the only option."
Well, one has to try, doesn't one? In case you don't see an update for January 1, 2011: Happy New Year.

December 24, 2010

Iran Quds Force operative captured in Afghanistan
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/12/exclusive_isaf_captu.php

ROK Army exercise We thought that since two artillery battalions were involved in the army exercise that at least a brigade was involved. Wrong-O. One armored battalion took part (30 MBT and 11 APVs).
Pathetic. Worse than pathetic. Why even bother with this absurd exercise?
Meanwhile DPRK resumes threats much to our relief. We get bothered when countries like DPRK and individuals like Hugo Chavez zip their lips. DPRK now threatens a sacred nuclear war if it is attacked. Hmmmm. We thought sacred involves God, and are these commie-fascists telling us they believe in god? And its right before Christmas, too. Deeply significant, no doubt.
$42-million medicines stolen from Afghan security forces The medicines were delivered by the US, and have vanished. The Afghan Army's surgeon-general and three doctors at Kabul's military hospital have been removed. Times of India reports that Afghan security forces personnel often have to go without medicines, equipment has been stolen, dressings are not changed, and doctors unavailable because they are moonlighting at private clinics.
Way to go, people. Way to build the Afghan forces so they can defeat the Taliban.
Time once again for US high command to go: "Lalalalala I can't hear you!" when reality comes calling. This is what American kids are dying for and what American taxpayers are paying $100-billion+ a year for?
$1-billion palace under construction for Mr. Putin according to the Washington Post. The charge has been made by a Russian businessman-turned-journalist (we assume he has moved outside Russia) who was in charge of collecting the "voluntary" donations Russian businessmen made for the palace. It may be used to house athletes for the 2014 Winter Games at Sochi, presumably as a way of deflecting unpleasant allegations. This same businessman was responsible for providing Mr. Putin with regular updates on his wealth.

December 23, 2010

ROK military exercises ROK 1st Fleet began a three-day exercise yesterday, including live fire drills. An A V Corps ground exercise being billed as the "biggest" (without saying biggest what, when, how, why) is to begin today. Since just two artillery battalions are included, we assume this is not a big anything, leave alone a "biggest".
DPRK has remained unaccustomedly quiet, but has reinforced its IV Corps area (West, where the artillery incident took place) with SAM-2s and anti-ship missiles.
Meanwhile, in a tremendous show of national will to stand up to the North, ROK today - gasp! - switched on Christmas lights located on a tower visible from DPRK. This was the first time - simply amazing! - in seven years this has been done. Why? Because DPRK considers the lights a grave provocation. DPRK has threatened in the past to shoot out the lights. ROK this time says if DPRK shoots out the lights, there will be severe retaliation. All terribly mature and grownup as you can see. But this sort of things happens when you've feuding for sixty years.
Someone needs to put both ROK and DPRK across their knee and deliver a serious paddling.
Aliens with size 440 shoes? New Zealand has declassified 2000 pages of flying saucer reports, says UK Telegraph http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/ufo/8218621/Alien-with-size-440-shoe-among-New-Zealand-UFO-sightings.html The headline says one report concerns a giant alien with size 440 shoes, but unfortunately does not tell us anything more.
Now, given that people say that show size is related to - er - would this alien have a giant - er - you know what we are trying to say here but cannot as this is a family friendly website...
Editor is a firm believer in UFOs and alien, being an alien himself.
Wikileaks founder complains about leaks We were wondering if he really was going to make a spectacle of himself by complaining of a leak concerning him. This leak was a copy of the 68-page Swedish police report concerning the criminal complaint against him in Sweden. But sure enough, the gentleman not only complained, he said the release of information was selective and one-sided. Well, the cables he is leaking are also selections, and they sure are one-sided because there is no context or contrary view provided.
Editor's carefully thought out and mature response is to say: "You can dish it out but you cant take it, neena-neena-neena!"
India, Pakistan fire missiles Nothing unusual in that, but a unit from India's strategic Forces Command fired two Prithvi missiles one after the other, with the missiles being taken at random from the production line. That is unusual. Apparently India is still producing between 10 and 30 Prithvis a year. The missile is just a souped up Scud type. India has more advanced missiles and we're not sure why its even bothering with this one any more.

December 22, 2010

Compromise, Washington Style The other day we had a typical Washington-style compromise where the Democrats agreed to extend tax cuts for the wealthy plus a temporary reduction in the payroll tax, and the Republicans agreed to an extension of unemployment benefits and some other things. Both sides came away feeling good about themselves, never mind the $900-billion added to the deficit over the next few years.
Today we will see another Washington-style compromise. The Republicans have agreed to support the new START treaty the Administration wants; the Administration has agreed to spend $85-billion over 10-years to ensure the current nuclear arsenal works.
The issues here are very simple. First, cutting warhead ceilings from 2250 to 1550 are a good thing in principle, but even 10-50 warheads suffice to seriously damage the biggest countries. If it had been up to the Editor, he wouldn't have paid a single dime to get this treaty because it doesn't change a darn thing or make us one bit safer. Having it is better than not having it, because once you get to 1550 warheads you can talk about going lower and maybe in the far distance you can visualize a day when treaties call for zero N-weapons. But having it at the cost it entails makes no sense
Second, does anyone opposed to the treaty seriously thing that it makes the slightest difference to America's enemies that instead of - say - the probability that 90% of the warheads will work as designed, as opposed to our spending $85-billion to make sure they will work 99% of the time? No one is crazy enough to assume anything but that the great majority of warheads will explode just fine. This $85-billion does not add a teeny little bit to American security. Its another bunch of money flushed down the toilet. Sure, it will preserve jobs, weapons designs teams, testing establishments and so on. But however well intentioned, we cannot afford a jobs preservation program
US Economy versus Foxconn as a job creation machine So on one side we have the US economy, closing in on a GDP of $15-trillion. On the other side we have Taiwan's Foxconn, which at an annual revenue of $60-billion is bigger than a number of the world's nations, but still, is 0.4% the size of the US economy.
Business Week (December 20-January 2, 2011, page 40) tells us Foxconn added 300,000 jobs last year. US non-farm employers added 937,000. Foxconn is the actual makers of the actual stuff companies like Apple, Cisco, Dell, HP, Microsoft, Nokia, Nintendo, and Sony sell under their own name.
Okay, you say, but what does this comparison mean? After all, Foxconn is creating jobs in China (it already has 1-million employees and is hiring more), so how does it matter what someone is doing in China? Here's the thing. We don't know what this means. But Editor has dealt with figures all his life, and has an instinct about what comparisons are relevant or not relevant. His instinct is there is something to be learned here, even if its not immediately apparent.
BTW, there was a huge uproar this year when 14 Chinese employees committed suicide at Foxconn China. But when you think about it, is that really a lot considering the size of the company? The US has about 30,000 suicides a year, its probably a good guess that several hundred are from the population of factory workers, who number about 15-million.
US threatens cross-border raids after Pakistan refuses North Waziristan Offensive We see two possible outcomes of this threat. One, Pakistan will call the US's bluff, if only because it has no choice. The minute US actually starts crossing the border with its own troops all heck will break lose in Pakistan. Two, Pakistan will do a pretend offensive in like with its previous pseudo offensives. This latter course is problematical, however. Up to a point the Pakistani Taliban are willing to play along with the Pakistan government in the matter of these pretend offensives. But some anti-government Pakistan Taliban may seize the opportunity to stoke the fires against the government. And even the pro-government Taliban might tuen around tell the government to stop being girlie men.
US frustration is completely understandable, but we are confused as to why of a sudden this has become an issue when for the best part of nine years US has not said or done much about the Afghan Taliban's sanctuaries in Pakistan, or about the open support Pakistan has given both the Afghan and Pakistan Taliban. However, we are 100% convinced the US has no heart or mind for a wider war, particularly when Americans have been told the war is ending. Its not a good idea to make threats unless you're willing to go all the way. That means separating the NWFP and Balochistan from Pakistan and then pacifying them. We don't think this is much of a solution, frankly.

December 21, 2010

ROK conducts artillery exercises in West Islands The exercises, which went ahead despite several threats from DPRK, were conducted later than scheduled because of inclement weather and continued for two hours.
Those who have been telling ROK that the exercises will raise tension and possibly lead to war with DPRK, are completely clueless. ROK has been conducting similar exercises for years, on a monthly basis. Moreover, it has the right to have exercises. Do the Chinese or the Russians halt their exercises because their neighbors consider them provocative? So then why should ROK suddenly stop, particularly given the DPRK attack on the ROK's homeland?
Russia and China want to be taken seriously. A cardinal requirement for that is to themselves act responsibly. Demanding restraint from the victim is not responsible. China in particular has lost a good deal of diplomatic ground in Asia because of its failure to control or even condemn DPRK's self-destructive behavior. If Beijing thinks its failure to act has escaped the notice of Japan, South Korea, India, SE Asia, Philippines, Indonesia, and Australia/New Zealand, to say nothing of the US, then it is living in a dream state.
By Russian and Chinese logic, each time DPRK holds military drills on its territory, ROK should issue stern warnings and even strike at DPRK. This is no logic at all.
Aside from DPRK threats, prior to the ROK West Islands exercises, DPRK reinforced its rocket artillery opposite the islands, raised the alert level for its artillery in region, prepared its coastal artillery for action, and alerted fighter jets. This is not provocative according to Russia and China?
For details of the ROK/US military alert ahead of the exercises, read http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/12/20/2010122000453.html
Iran executes 11 Sunni Jundallah insurgents in response to Jundallah's attack on an Iranian mosque last week. Though the news source does not explicitly say so, it appears the insurgents have been in Iranian custody for some time and were not rounded up "usual suspects" after the mosque attack.
While as far as we are concerned, anything that hurts Iran is good because that country is America's enemy, we condemn the rebel group's attack on civilians. You want to fight the Iranian state, attack military targets, not civilians.
Israel to deploy Merkava 4 "Windbreaker" MBTs on Gaza border says Haaretz of Israel http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/idf-to-deploy-super-armored-tanks-along-gaza-border-1.331537 in response to an ATGM attack on an Israeli tank two weeks ago and a growing arsenal of anti-tank weapons in the hands of Palestine groups in Gaza. Windbreaker is a reactive armor system used for protection against mines and missiles. Israel has just one battalion of Merkava 4s with this armor, 9th Battalion of the 401st Brigade.
Charming is all we can say after learning from the UK Telegraph that the lady who played Padma Patil in Harry Potter was beaten by her family and threatened with death because she had been seeing a Hindu man. She is Muslim. Her father told her brother he would do the murder and the time to spare the brother. She was also called a prostitute by her family. By the way, she is 22-years old. She refused to come to court to testify on the murder threats. The brother pleaded guilty to assault; no word on the sentence; the father was bound for 12-months to keep the peace. The lady had to escape the house through her bedroom window after she was beaten by the brother. Such a lovely dad and elder brother.
British Army asks for tanks for Helmand The government has the proposal under consideration. It involves a squadron (company) or Challenger 2s. The rationale for NOT sending tanks earlier was that the British not want to send a "wrong message" to the locals.
Hmmmm. If you don't want to send a wrong message, why land up in Afghanistan to begin with? Troops, APCs, military vehicles, helicopters, fighter jets, and artillery send the right message but tanks send the wrong message? Get a life, British MOD. You like to think of yourselves as superior to the Americans, but you're guilty of the same half-donkey thinking. (BTW, if you really want to insult a Brit, tell him he is the no better than the Americans. Drives the Brits absolutely crazy.)
Meanwhile, the British forces face a shortage of over $50-billion over the next ten years just for equipment that has been ordered but not probably funded.

December 20, 2010

Iran moves to eliminate subsidies Petrol went up from 10-cents/liter yesterday to 38-cents/liter, which is still pretty cheap. Compressed natural gas and diesel fuel have also risen. Other subsidies such as bread will be eliminated in due time. While commentators are saying the subsidies had to be cut because of economic sanctions, we are not entirely sure sure this is 100% true. A subsidy means the state is taking a loss somewhere else and in any case subsidies are not in favor in any economy these days.
But one thing is clear from the New York Times story at http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/20/world/middleeast/20iran.html?_r=1&hp The Iranian President can't count. He has said fuel subsidies are costing Iran $114-billion/year. Since Iran's GDP is $350-billion, clearly he has his sums wrong. But - as they say - "Better an enemy who can't count than one who can count without using his fingers and toes."
US may have to leave Iraq by 2011 and we say that's great news. US was planning on keeping 50,000 troops indefinitely, including combat troops it has relabeled using typical American spin, such as designating combat brigades as "Support and Assistance Brigades".
There is a growing belief among Iraqis, however, that the US should really go home in 2011. We hope the Iraqis do America a favor by asking for a total withdrawal. And please: lets not have the usual Washington bull-poopy such as "the Iraqis will not be able to manage by themselves". They were managing fine before we landed up.
Russia ready to resume border responsibility of Tajik-Afghan border says Pravda, but we have no idea if the report is authoritative or not. All that is clear is that Russia anticipates an expansion of Taliban activities across the border and is talking about how best to meet the problem. Unusually frank, the Pravda report says Russia cannot rely on the 201st Division it stations in Tajikistan because it is manned mostly by volunteer Tajiks, whose loyalty my be suspect in case of a Taliban push into the country.
This is not making sense to us: the Taliban and Tajiks do not get along as the former are Pushtuns. When the Taliban overran Afghanistan, it was the northern tribes that stopped them from getting the entire country. A US objective has been to recruit large numbers of Tajiks and other anti-Taliban ethnic groups to the Afghan security forces precisely because they can be better trusted to stand up to the Taliban.
If any of our readers has information or clarification on the Pravda report, please do share it with us. http://english.pravda.ru/hotspots/conflicts/17-12-2010/116248-russia_tajikistan_afghanistan-0/ All that we have been able to find re. the reference to Unit 12 destroyed on July 13, 1993 was that 25 Russian soldiers were killed in a clash on the Afghan-Tajik border. This doesn't seem to amount to a destruction of any kind.
From the ACIG website we learn that in 1992 Islamists supported by Pakistan ISI and belonging to Afghan Gulbuddin Hekmatyar overran the Tajik capital, Dushanbe, and were subsequently beaten back by the Russian 201 Division which was brought in from Uzbekistan. Fighting continued into 1995 - at one point the base of 201 Division was overrun by Islamists before a counterattack supported by the Russian air Force drove the Islamists back. It is said 70,000 were killed in this little war, mostly civilians.

December 19, 2010

Master Leaker Faces Leak This is simply too funny to pass up. A 68-page investigation of the complaint made by two women in Sweden against the Wikileaks leader has itself been leaked! We're waiting to see if the gentleman now says a criminal act has taken place. Read all about it at http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/19/world/europe/19assange.html?_r=1&hp
Correction we made an error yesterday when we said UK concerns itself only with questions of fair trial when considering extradition for an alleged criminal offense. UK checks to see if the complaint is politically motivated. It goes without saying anyone trying to make that argument in the case of a Swedish warrant is unlikely to succeed.
Wikileaks leaders may like to remember that what goes around, comes around (Quoted from "The Ancient Wisdom of the LaLa Indians".)
Chinese aircraft carriers Media reports that the first Chinese aircraft carrier of 50-60,000 tons should launch in 2014 and a second is in the works at Shanghai. The reports originate from December 16, 2010 Japanese daily Asahi Shimbun. We tried to recover the original article, without success. The paper quotes an official Japanese agency.
Meanwhile, refit of the 58,000-ton ex-Russian Varyag is underway, and a CVN is expected in 2020.
Japan's 5-year defense spending to rise by 0.1% You read that right: one-tenth of one-percent is the Japanese defense increase for the next five years. This is at time the country says it is very worried about China's military rise and is planning to reshape its military to meet that threat.
Quite crazy, the Japanese. You have to go by capabilities, not intentions, and right here you can see that whatever Japan may be saying, its obviously for political purpose. Its planned defense spending in no way bears out its word that China is a threat. Moreover, insofar as new weapons cost a lot more than previous ones, a 0.1% rise means that systems will not be replaced on a one-for-one basis. http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201012170342.html
US Phantom Ray ready to fly Best to quote from Boeing. "The Phantom Ray unmanned combat air vehicle (UCAV) is a fighter-sized technology demonstrator designed as a flying test bed for advanced technologies.
"Phantom Ray is an internally funded program that evolved from the prototype vehicle Boeing originally developed for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)/U.S. Air Force/U.S. Navy Joint-Unmanned Combat Air System (J-UCAS) program.

§ "Beginning in December 2010, Phantom Ray will conduct 10 flights over a period of approximately six months, supporting missions that may include intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance; suppression of enemy air defenses; electronic attack; hunter/killer; and autonomous aerial refueling. To make that schedule possible, Boeing is employing rapid prototyping processes and tools to achieve the project objectives as rapidly and as cost-effectively as possible to make a state-of-the-art aerospace system."

§ The technology demonstrator weighs 16.5-tons, about as much as a light fighter, has an operating altitude of 40,000-feet. cruises at Mach 0.8, and uses the GE F404 engine.

§ http://www.boeing.com/bds/mediakit/2010/navyleague/pdf/Bkgd_Phantom_Ray_0410.pdf

In case you don't have enough to worry about NASA scientists say in 2013 the Earth will be affected by giant solar flares that will knock out power grids and electronic equipment, possibly for months. But look at the positive side of things: with no power, Orbat.com's readers will be spared the Editor's insanities and inanities. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/7819201/Nasa-warns-solar-flares-from-huge-space-storm-will-cause-devastation.html

December 18, 2010

US Pakistan station chief withdrawn Mandeep Bajwa told us three days ago the Americans are mad as heck at the Pakistanis for disclosing the identity of their Pakistan station chief. That's what someone in their intel did when they encouraged the man to file a suit against the station chief for killing his brother, we think it is. Chiefy obviously did not kill the brother; brother died in a UAV attack. For that the man needs to sue the US Prez, in an American court, But that wouldn't have served the purpose of whoever put the man up to this. Besides, you need money, lots of it, to file in a US court. In Pakistan you need a few dollars. And of course the Pakistan courts are not going to a thing. But that's a different story.
But we're nonetheless taken aback the US has taken the matter so seriously that it has withdrawn Chiefy. US says leaving him where he is is an invitation for people to try and kill him. In reality, had some Pakistani intended to kill Chiefy, he wouldn't have been able to succeed, whether Chief's name is public or not. The US action is intended to send a message to Pakistan. When we learn what that message is, we'll let you know. Meanwhile, your guess is as good as ours.
Hugo, our fave dictator has asked his parliament to again give him emergency powers, says reader Luxembourg. Hugo apprehends that the people, who love him, may not show enough of the love in the upcoming parliamentary elections and he may lose his supermajority that allows him to rule with about as many restrictions as our good buddy, Mr. Vlad Putin. With emergency powers, Hugo can of course fix the next election so the will of the people is truly heard. Then Hugo can proclaim "Yes, Virginia, there really is a Santa Claus; I wanted the presidency for another five years and look, Santa gave it to me."
It is now Friday evening where the Editor lives, and all week he has been on his knees praying that Santa brings him a date for Saturday. Santa has already responded. It was not a verbal response. Its the kind of response you make when you've had a couple of bowls of black beans. Rude old man, Santa. We wish he gets stuck in a chimney.
Predator phasing out, Reaper phasing in, Avenger in training In the know your Killer UAVs section, Wired.com tells us that the last Predator will be delivered next year. Meanwhile, the Avenger, which has a 2000-lb payload, is phasing in. That means it can lollygag through the air with a nice bunker buster, not just your typical Hellfires. Mind you, a Hellfire is designed to blow apart the heaviest Main Battle Tank, so it's not exactly chopped liver. The Avenger will be low-observable, have a 4800-lb thrust jet engine, with a 6000-lb payload, and flying time remains 20-hours. That's a very substantial capability for a loitering UAV.
Say what you will about America, and complain as some do about UAVs as unlicensed to kill, there is no doubt America turns out the best weapons. And UAVs are so quintessentially American: surgical, and every drop of blood that's shed is the other guy's.
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2010/07/killer-drones-get-stealthy/
Wikileaks - There he goes again Why can't this gentleman zip his lip so we don't have to waste our time refuting his outrageous statements? Out on bail, he says he was in jail for nine days but not a single shred of evidence has been presented against him.
Sigh. Mr. Wikileaks, lets go through this once again, slowly and patiently. Sweden has an international warrant out for your arrest because contrary to Swedish requirements, you did not return to Sweden when the prosecutor had questions to ask. Your offer to meet with the Swedish authorities over the phone or in the UK are absolutely meaningless because a "person of interest" does not have the right to set the terms for his questioning. We know you think you are the Messiah, but please do not take it badly when the Swedes say you are an ordinary human being and subject to the same laws as other human beings.
IF that is clear, Mr. Wikileaks, we can go on to step two. The law does NOT require the Swedes to present evidence against you to a British court. Potential charges (Mr. Wikileaks has not been charged with anything: he is simply wanted to answer some question regarding allegations made to the police by two women) are NOT to be discussed or tried in a British court. The Swedish courts do not answer to British courts just because you happen to be in the UK. The British have no right to say: "We will evaluate the charges" particularly when the charges concern rape or attempted rape (we still do not know the truth of what happened: we know two women have made allegations, Mr. Wikileaks has denied them).
The sole questions are: (a) was the international warrant made out properly in terms of what UK agreed to when it signed the Interpol document; (b) will Mr. Wikileaks get a fair trial IF he is charged. It not for the British court to prejudge what a Swedish court will do.
The answer to (a) is that the British did have questions about the warrant, Sweden responded, the British were satisfied, and issued an arrest warrant for transfer to Sweden, as is their obligation under international law. That automatically means that the answer to (b) is yes, the British do believe he will get a fair trial in Sweden. To argue otherwise is to be as Alice's Red Queen.
Is too complicated? Does this hurt your head? Or do you think your ideas of what is legal supersede the laws of two countries and international laws? If you think that, son, you have a problem which is best resolved by your doctor. May the Editor suggest the white and green pills? He takes them every day, and is proud to do so. They will definitely assist in helping you to align the world's reality with your reality.
(Editor takes the white-and-greens because he has trouble sleeping on account of the vast number of his sins, big and small. This happens to some people as they grow old. Generally they drink. Editor does not drink. So it has to be the green-and-whites, available by prescription at Target for $40 for a year's supply. God bless America, aint this the best country in the whole wide world. Of course, the prescription was written when Editor had health insurance. Now he doesn't. Still, what the hey, America is the best. But the green-and-whites - or are they white-and-purples? - help with many conditions. Son, don't be too proud to ask for help. Truthfully, the pills don't stop the nightmares. Nothing dramatic: Editor's nightmares are all about his failure to kill X, Y, Z, and others when he had the chance. The guilt of these moral failures is unbearable. What the pills do is to keep you asleep through the nightmares so that when you wake up you feel as if only an M-1 Abrams has run over you - repeatedly. As opposed to the USS Nimitz. Believe you me, there is a big difference.
But enough about us. Back to Mr. Wikileaks. Ask for help, son. You'll be a better man. Oh - and go to Sweden, will you? What you did with the leaks is not a crime in Sweden. They wont turn you over to the Americans. The Brits very well might. Of course, if you are found not to have done anything re. the two women requiring trial, you will be free to go, and the US will hunt you down. You think you had it tough in a British jail? Let us tell you, you don't want to visit a US jail when you're charged with espionage. if you have done something wrong re. the two women, the Swedes will deport you to Australia, your home country, after you serve your sentence. What happens then - well, we can't foretell everything for you free of charge. Editor has to pay when he sees a doctor next year for renewal of his white-and-purple pill prescription. Dang. Wonder if they're really pink-and-white?
More free advice: if the Americans get you, wipe the smirk off your face and act humble. Acknowledge you have done wrong and beg for a chance to redeem yourself. Americans love that. But if you keep the smirk and the Messiah Complex, well what can we say. The pink-and-white pills will not help. Americans don't like smirking messiahs.
Wonder if the pills are really purple-and-white?

December 17, 2010

Apologies for a short updater: Editor has to substitute for a teacher friend and needs to get to bed early. He will earn a magnificent $110 after taxes, but he's not complaining. When you don't have a job or unemployment, $110 is much better than zero dollars. Moreover, Editor gets to leave his computer and interact with human beings.

Pakistan doctor held on blasphemy charges Dawn of Pakistan said on December 12, 2010. Originally we paid this story no mind because this sort of thing happens all the time in Pakistan. But then we learned that the doctor's blasphemy consists of throwing in the trash a card from a sales rep, who has "Muhammad" as part of his name.
This accusation sounded a bit of a stretch to us. But then we learned the doctor, who is well-known in Hyderabad, the city where the offense took place, belongs to a minority Muslim sect. The Sunni majority in Pakistan has a history of oppressing minorities, even Muslim minorities.
Intriguingly, a leading member of the community apologized to the sales rep, who accepted the apology. But it was too late, because local leaders were now calling for the doctor's head.
Stuxnet virus has set Iran enrichment program back by two years Chris Raggio sends an article from the Jerusalem Post http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=199475 which has a German source saying that that the damage done by the Stuxnet virus is almost as good as a military strike.
Can we now expect debka.com to stop, for two years, its stories about the US preparing for a strike against Iran? Stuxnet or not, such an attack wasn't going to happen anyway, but here now is the perfect excuse for everyone to stop talking about the urgency of attacking Iran. (Debka has already shifted its position, saying the US has relaxed pressure on Iran to give negotiations a chance. This of course makes the US look like a bunch of clowns, because Iran has said only about a thousand times it will not stop its N-weapons program.)
If you want to get a serious headache please read this story from the UK Telegraph which says Iran is willing to make a deal to ship its stock of Low Enriched Uranium and 20% enriched uranium overseas in return for fuel for its research reactor.
We want to reiterate that our analysis is Iran is nowhere near building an N-weapon. But then who listens to us.

December 16, 2010

Pakistan soldier who died in Delhi: from Mandeep Singh Bajwa An uproar has broken out in India over the discovery of the profile and details of a Naik (Corporal) of the Engineers in the Shuhada (Martyrs) section of the official Pakistan Army website. The operation he was apparently involved in is described as 'Suicide Attack' and the place of death is disclosed as New Delhi, India.
This has led to charges that the Pakistan Army admits that it sends suicide bombers into India to target innocent civilians as well as vital installations. A little investigation reveals that the NCO was admitted by the Pakistan High Commission in New Delhi to the Sir Ganga Ram Hospital where he died of renal failure. Zulfikar Ahmed was apparently seconded to the ISI (which the website entry reveals) and posted to its New Delhi Station. I don't think the ISI would take the risk of allowing one of its regular, serving personnel to be personally involved in a suicide attack except in a supporting role. After all any post-attack investigation could've revealed his true identity leading to grave embarrassment for Pakistan. Most probably he was involved in either making bombs, suicide vests or as an instructor in bomb-making to the many surrogate Pakistani terror outfits operating in India. This much can be deduced from his background as an NCO from the Engineers. All countries have intelligence personnel posted under diplomatic cover in their missions abroad.
This is probably the first time that a country has admitted that it posts saboteurs, suicide bombers or bomb-making instructors in one of its embassies. What this episode reveals is the malevolence with which the ISI and the Pakistan Army conducts its long-standing operations against the Indian State. Immediately after the story broke in the Indian media, the Pakistan Army website was off the Net apparently for technical reasons. It came back up after a few hours with the names of all 25 ISI personnel earlier listed as martyrs omitted. ISPR and GHQ have not responded as yet to any query on the controversy. Coupled with the earlier incident where hoax WikiLeaks cables were apparently posted on the Internet by what is alleged to be an ISI propaganda front, this incident has caused a great deal of embarrassment for Pakistan's civilian Government. The military of course couldn't care less.
UK UAV stealthy jet to fly next year This is the Taranis (Celtic god of thunder) whose existence was unveiled earlier in the year. It can carry ordnance, though on current plans will provide long-range surveillance at intercontinental ranges. It has a maximum take off of 8,000-kg.
The aircraft is not ore-production: it is primarily a technology demonstrator. An aircraft developed from Taranis may replace the Tornado G4. We thought we should mention this apropos the note a couple of days ago that the Royal Air Force is to shrink to 6 fighter squadrons by 2020. Presumably there will be a squadron's worth of UAVs. This particularly design can also be used for air defense.
Suicide bomber kills 39, injures 90 in Iran A second bomber was apparently shot by security forces but managed to detonate his vest, causing little damage. A third bomber was arrested. The bombers belong to the Sunni insurgent group Jundallah. The Iranians, who must have the best detectives in the world, have already announced the Americans are behind the attack, because of the "advanced equipment and facilities" (New York Times) at the disposal of the attackers. The problem with this theory is that if it ever emerged US was directly supporting terrorist operations against civilians, there would be so many indictments and jail sentences that we cannot imagine US would get involved in direct support.
We condemn any targeting of civilians, by terrorists or by military forces. Nonetheless, Iran has played the suicide bomber game for many years in Iraq and the Middle East. We hope this incident leads the Iranians to reconsider their use of this weapon.
Iran cuts Hezbollah aid by 40% says Jerusalem Post http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=199611 because of problems caused by international sanctions, and this is causing friction between Iran and Hezbollah. The paper says nearly $1-billion has been given in aid to Hezbollah by Iran in recent years.
We'd be a bit careful of this report and particularly the $1-billion estimate. The newspaper mentions trouble between Hezbollah and Iran because the former refuses to accept the latter's authority. Problem is, this dispute has been going on since the start of Hezbollah, and we seriously doubt that Iran cannot now afford the $50-million+/annually it gives to the terrorist group.
Friction between militant groups and their sponsors is part of the game. It is nothing unusual.
ROK holds biggest air raid drill in 35-years reports the New York Time, deploying 300,000 police and Civil Defense Corps personnel. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/16/world/asia/16korea.html?ref=asia

December 15, 2010

According to our interpretation of this article in the New York Times we think the Americans at all levels are finally clear that Pakistan will not suppress the Taliban. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/15/world/asia/15policy.html?_r=1&hp
Any normal people would say: oh well, we've just spent nine years fighting a war where the basic premise was wrong, maybe we should quit and not come up with more rationales that could be equally faulty. But no. American hawks, military and civilian, want us to forgive the utter futility of the last nine years while they continue with the recently rolled out plan. This is what the NYT report says:
"American commanders say their plan in the next few years is to kill large numbers of insurgents in the border region — the military refers to it as “degrading the Taliban” — and at the same time build up the Afghan National Army to the point that the Afghans can at least contain an insurgency still supported by Pakistan. (American officials say Pakistan supports the insurgents as a proxy force in Afghanistan, preparing for the day the Americans leave.)"
We don't know about the Audacity of Hope, but the Audacity of the above formulation takes our breath away, and not like Kelly McGillis in "Top Gun" either. Where are the apologies for having misled/lied to the American people for nine years? Where is the introspection? Where are the options laid out, such as "We messed up big, big time, but here's our case for continuing with a new strategy, if you, the American people say we deserve another chance"?
The new plan, of course, is just as whacked out as the old plan. "...build up the ANA to the point the Afghans can at least contain an insurgency still supported by Pakistan". Anybody notice that the new plan all but says the war is unwinnable and we are talking about containing the insurgency not defeating it?
As for this plan to build up the ANA, don't Americans realize that if they now delay their departure, both the Taliban and Pakistan will majorly step up their operations? No one sees any point in fighting the Americans as long as there is a departure date. The fighting that is taking place now is largely inadvertent in the sense as the Americans push into new areas, they are poking sticks at hornet nests. But once those hornets get some good American pesticide sprayed on them, they go into hiding, why die when the Americans are leaving anyway. But if the Americans are NOT leaving you are going to find ever larger numbers of Pakistani regulars entering Afghanistan. They will make 100% sure that the Taliban thrash the ANA.
And even if the ANA can hold its own, what about the Afghan National Police? Surely even the Americans are not going to pretend the ANP can do its job? What about the civilian administration? Just the other day we read a very nice article in WashPo about American military successes in Kandahar, but the point is, there is still no civil administration in the district and there never will be because the Taliban murder administrators! Another article we read says in one district half the police, belonging to one faction, have made their "live and let live" agreement with the Taliban.
No one in their right mind wants to die, and it is sick, pathetic, and medically insane for the Americans to think Afghan civilians, soldiers, and police are going to die for American objectives.
If you read the NYT article, you will see the military already attacking the intelligence estimates which say things are going badly because (a) the intelligence people are not on the ground, and (b) the reports end at October 1, with no account of progress after that.
What this has done is convinced the Editor that the American Government and Congress and the elite cannot stand up to their military and civilian hawks. It is absolutely absurd to say "you haven't counted the progress of the last six weeks" because in the last nine years, hundreds of times Americans have made progress, only to lose when they they leave the area. It is absurd to say "you aren't in the field" because the 16 intel agencies take their input from the field. What do the hawks think, that the intel agencies are just making things up?
The current situation is absolutely absurd because the US does not have any viable plan to win. It cannot win regardless of plans because the US Government and people refuse to commit the needed resources, and the way the pro-war faction has kept the war going is by lying, lying, lying. Americans we have talked to have known from Day 1 about the Pakistani support of the Taliban, but it has taken nine years for the hawks to admit that nothing can be done about this.
The hawks aggressively demand another chance. Let them ask themselves. Suppose this was World War II, which for the US began in 1941. Now suppose this is 1950 and the intel analysts are saying things are going badly. The hawks then tell the American people "in the next few years we are going to contain German and Japan" - not defeat, contain. What would the American people say? Give the generals another chance? Not likely, buster. They'd be howling to rip the stars off the shoulders of the generals and they'd be tarring and feathering the civilian hawks.
The American people are not doing this. Their ruling elite has failed them in Afghanistan, and the American people are sitting scratching their bellies, popping another beer, and grousing about the Redskins' last loss or whatever. Whose fault is it the elite cannot control the hawks? You can't blame the hawks because they have gotten used to a decade's worth of walking over the American people and the people have not said a word. And they still aren't. Don't the American people realize it's their responsibility to stop the hawks?
This war is no longer about America's interests. It's about the interests of hawks who refuse to admit they've lost. If the American people think its okay to expend more live and more money to give the hawks a chance to save face, well then, what is the Editor to do or say? Except eat another Hershey bar.
Sigh. Now DPRK threatens nuclear war if US-ROK continue with their exercises. The complete lack of world reaction just goes to show precisely how retarded the world considers DPRK to be. Any other country threatening nuclear war would create a huge uproar. Not so with DPRK. Instead of alarm, the world is giving a collective eye roll and saying: "There they go again".
BTW, DPRK does not have nuclear weapons, regardless of what you read in the news. Sure, they could make a radioactive device. Now, while you do not want a radioactive device landing in downtown Seoul or Tokyo - or even Beijing, who knows what the DPRK Looney Tuners can get up to, it is far less significant than an actual bomb landing up.
Why we are not commenting any more on Wikileaks A reader asked us why we had dropped Wikileaks from our radar. The reason is simple. The founder is now in the criminal justice system, US has agreed it can't stop the leaks, others have said it will be tough for the US to make a case against the founder, so there isn't much to be said about him.
Reader Vikhir Kradiac tells us that the Indian press is full of reports that the Pakistan Army website lists an ISI operative who died in a Delhi hospital in 2007. Under the heading "Operation" is written "suicide attack".
Well, after a little bit of detective work, mainly staring at the entry from "Martyrs Corner" sent by Vikhir, we have concluded a Pakistan soldier probably did die in a Delhi hospital, but of kidney failure. Presumably he would be attached to the Pakistan High Commission. The soldier whose name is given would have died in a suicide attack in Pakistan. We've looked previously at the site, and there is a lot of misalignment of rows of information. For example, formations that were raised in the 2000s are shown as having personnel who died in 1948. The editing is messed up, that's all.
So you see, good Indian people, you still need Grandpa Ravi to help sort things out for you. Grandpa Ravi is always pleased at the occasional appreciation he gets from India, but whenever he suggests that the best appreciation would be a decent job, his appreciators suddenly find themselves terribly busy.
Voyager leaves Solar System 33 years after its launch. It is now 17.4-billion kilometers from Earth, and has reached a point where the solar wind is at zero, moving sideways instead of moving outward. For reasons about which we are not yet clear, Voyager will take another four years to enter interstellar space. Voyager is, of course, nuclear-powered, and astonishingly still continues to provide data.

December 14, 2010

From David T. on two articles concerning ROK and DPRK I came across a couple of articles (and yes, they were linked from a 'biased' 'left wing' site) that were at the very least interesting if not slightly alarming (as many biased websites tend to be, DEBKA et al.) Your insight would be appreciated:
Dennis Blair, former Director of National Intelligence, stated on CNN's program State of the Union that South Korea may actually attack North Korea soon. http://news.antiwar.com/2010/12/12/former-us-spy-chief-south-korea-may-attack-north/
Now, I'm no supporter of North Korea nor am a fan of "peace at any cost," especially when a nation keeps staging attacks on you and you haven't responded- but this is dangerous. I wouldn't want SK to attack NK for the simple fact that it would be viewed as a war started by the South REGARDLESS of previous provocations by the North.
The ROK (Republic of Korea/South Korea) should have responded either after the sinking of the Cheonon OR the recent shelling of ROK civilians immediately in kind rather than stage separate retaliation. Previous such tit for tat encounters never ended in all out war. This attack (if indeed it is being seriously considered) may end up in total war.
Does President Lee Myung-bak (president of ROK) seriously believe that China will simply hold back while the ROK, along with support from US forces, swarm across the NLL north after a bombing campaign? In fact he thinks annexation of NK is coming soon!
http://news.antiwar.com/2010/12/10/south-korea-reunification-drawing-near/
I would rather wait for the regime to collapse on its own (as it seems to be in the process of doing) or let it stage one last provocation before a justifiable counter-attack. Timing makes a difference.
Editor's response Admiral Blair is known for the forceful expression of his opinions. He based his thoughts that ROK may soon attack DPRK on the immense outcry in the South after the recent artillery attack on the West Islands. He believes the South must respond or the Government will fall.
The Editor respectfully disagrees. First, ROK did retaliate: the battery located in the West Islands fired 100 rounds at the DPRK rocket unit that attacked the West Islands. Escalation was considered, and ruled out. Second, Yes, many Koreans are very upset. But from Editor's reading of the ROK press (in English, of course), while there is widespread support for an escalation when the next attack comes, there is little support for a strike now that the crisis has passed. Third, ROK has already staged a further retaliation: it conducted a major naval exercise with the US Navy, and between December 13 and 17 almost the entire ROK Navy is on live fire exercises despite the standard hyperbolic threats from DPRK. Fourth, ROK has announcement a reinforcement of the West Islands by tripling artillery and sending back Marines that had been drawn down previously. Also, ROK is openly talking about the need for an amphibious retaliation in the event of the next attack.
If one considers how passive ROK has been in the past, this is a forceful response and has put DPRK on notice that the next provocation will lead to disproportionate response that can include amphibious raids and will for certain include an air strike.
Regarding the ROK leadership's expectations that DPRK is going to collapse. ROK has been planning quietly for this eventuality and has been attempting to build a consensus on the desirability of unification after the collapse of the regime. Unification is not something that fills every ROK citizen with joy and delight, particularly after the immense costs West Germany incurred in absorbing the East, so the topic has to be approached carefully. On balance, of course, it's safe to assume that in the end ROK citizens may grumble about the cost and the bother, but they will support reunification.
Editor agrees completely with Mr. David T that the preferable course from the US viewpoint is to wait till DPRK collapses of its own contradictions. We should keep in mind the DPRK regime has been skillful in maintaining its hold on power. So collapse may come later rather than sooner.
At this time the United States does not, under any circumstances, need to get involved in another major fracas in another part of the world. We say this not because we are pacifists: we are firm believers in the use of military power to further national objectives. Our concern is that in the US at this time we have a bunch of completely incompetent leaders, civilian and military. Their political orientation is irrelevant because GOP or Democrat, they are consistently incompetent as seen by events since 2001. The people who run our military-foreign policy today cannot be trusted in a bathtub with rubber ducks, leave alone the still very considerable power the US can deploy. Hands off is the best policy for the US until this generation of "leaders" is sent to nursing homes and a new generation takes power. (Frankly Editor feels ice floes would be better, why make other harmless residents of nursing homes suffer. Like Mr. Glen Beck, we're just saying...)
Two developments in Pakistan North Kashmir Mandeep Singh Bajwa sends a rather cryptic communication. One, Force Command Northern Areas is now known as Force Command Gilgit-Baltisan, following the renaming of the Northern Areas. Though the region is part and parcel of Kashmir, Pakistan has taken it out of Kashmir and rules it directly. (Maybe India can learn something from Pakistan?)
Two, the Chinese military presence in Gilgit-Baltistan continues to grow.
Some of this is undoubtedly related to the project to widen the Karakoram Highway to six lanes from the current two. But there's more going on than just yet. We'll have to wait for Mr. Bajwa to tell us what it is.

December 13, 2010

Japan to reorient defense from its Russia focus to a China focus. Armor is to be reduced from 600 tanks to 390, and artillery is also to be reduced. Instead there will be more mobile formations that can be inserted quickly against specific Chinese threats. Japan is also to increase the number of submarines and fund more Next-generation fighters.
This is all fine and dandy, but the reason Japan invested in armor and artillery against the Russian threat is that it feared attack by Russian mechanized forces. China is building a substantial amphibious capability that will far exceed what the Soviet Union had. And China is also mechanizing its forces, amphibious and otherwise. So those tanks and artillery are still very much needed.
To us the Japanese move sounds like another cop out. The US should not allow this. Oh yes, needless to mention, Japan's new plans call for closer US cooperation. We have to say: "Not so fast, Mo. When Japan spends just 1% of GDP on defense whereas US spends close to a true 6% (counting defense related spending that is not in the defense budget), why is Japan relying more on the US?" Japan needs to step up its own defense spending to 2% of GDP, which is still very modest. And we are very tired of hearing the Japanese justify their low defense spending on grounds that they don't want to appeal militaristic. First, who cares any more, and second, with the rise of the Dragon everyone would welcome a more powerful Japanese military.
Meanwhile, ROK steps up naval exercises with the US. A new series if planned December 13-17 and will involve live firing off all three ROK coasts, but the area around the five West islands that were the site of the fracas between DPRK and ROK will be excluded from the exercises. Also, for the first time ROK has sent an observer to a US-Japan naval exercise.
US judge refuses judicial review for US citizen terrorists The father of Anwar al-Awalki brought a suit in US court saying the US cannot target him for death without the process of law because the son is a US citizen. The gent is hiding out in Yemen and doing his terrorist thing.
The court said the father had no standing in the matter, and that targeted killings were a political matter that could not be handled on a judicial level.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/08/world/middleeast/08killing.html?ref=middleeast
You have to admire Islamic jihadis for their ability to make enemies So here we have Sweden, a country of small population, very peaceful and tolerant. There have been local problems between Swedish police and Muslim ghettos and yes, there are calls to tighten up immigration; despite that, Sweden remains welcoming of Islamic immigrants.
So what does a real smart jihadi do? He explodes a bomb in downtown Stockholm, killing himself and injuring two others. why? Because Sweden has 500 troops in Afghanistan, and because a Swedish media person drew anti-Prophet cartoons. (Seeing as western cartoonists make fun of everyone and everything, we honestly don't see why one particular religion has to be exempt.)
So by committing a terrorist act on Swedish soil, this one person has now made life difficult for every Swedish Muslim immigrant and probably for all non-white immigrants. He will also have reduced liberty for all Swedes of any color, and given right wing parties the very excuse they need to limit immigration. Great job, fellah. Great job.
Richard Holbrooke We are no fans of Mr. Holbrooke because he thinks he can order India around like Pakistan. The Pakistanis pretend to obey him and then do exactly what they wish. Indians, who are less adept at playing this game, get mad at Mr. Holbrooke.
Nonetheless, we are sorry to hear he is very ill and send our best wishes for his recovery. Our business concerns and prejudices should have nothing to do with the personal Mr. Holbrooke, who after all does what he is paid to do, which is to push American interests.

December 12, 2010

Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline: what gives? All parties have signed the 1800-km TAPI deal, but we're wondering how feasible is this project given the pipeline crosses Helmand and Kandahar Districts in Afghanistan, home of the Taliban. The pipeline will deliver 33-billion-cubic-meters annually, which will be split 42-42-18 between India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. Local militias will be responsible for security in Afghanistan. If the local militias are Taliban and they get properly paid, we suppose this pipeline could work.
The Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline would be a much better deal for Pakistan and India, but the US is dead set against this project which as far as we know is stalled. India's Hindustan Times reported yesterday that India says the $7+ billion deal is "not shelved", but India is waiting on "courageous" insurance companies because the pipeline passes through Pakistan, which has its own security issues. Doesn't sound encouraging to us.
Meanwhile, Turkmenistan and China are working on a second 1800-km gas pipeline (2011 completion) being built parallel to the first (completed 2010). By 2012 the pipeline will deliver 40-billion-cubic-metersmannually to China. A Kazahkstan - China pipeline will complete in 2014, 15-billion-cubinc-meters. No security problem here, we'll wager.
Eliminating fossil fuels: Kristanstad, Sweden New York Times says this city and its surrounding county, population 80,000, has eliminated the use of fossil fuel for heating. It is also producing biofuels, and by 2020 plans to be petrol free as well.
US Navy tests 200-km rail gun at Dahlgren, Virginia. The projectile was delivered with a force of 33-megajoules, which Defense News compares to 33-tons slamming into a wall at over 150-kilometers/hour. Of course, we're a long way from seeing this deployed at sea, but the rail gun could mess of an enemy warship and provide very long range shore support, reducing demands on carrier aircraft. The rail gun can also be used for anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense. A cruiser or destroyer could store several hundred projectiles in place of - say - 100 missiles.
Royal Air Force will be down to 140 fighter aircraft by 2020 In 1990 RAF had 33 fighter squadrons; by April 2011 it will have eight, and by 2020 it will have six (five Typhoon and 1 F-35).
Very impressive. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/11/science/earth/11fossil.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&hp
American historian claims identification of Jesus's greatgrandmother The historian believes Mary's grandmother was Saint Ismeria. But please note that in keeping with Jewish tradition, only Jesus's patriarchal ancestry is given in the Bible. Mary herself is mentioned only a few times. And the sources the historian used are Florentine manuscripts from the 14th and 15th Centuries, nearly 1500 years after Saint Ismeria lived. And the gospels themselves were written decades after Jesus's death. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/Great-grandmom-of-Jesus-identified/articleshow/7081532.cms

December 11, 2010

Pakistani newspapers apologize for fake Wikileaks We are highly disappointed. Editor was waiting for his exams to be over before composing a bunch of fake Wikileaks concerning Pakistan, and now his justification for this fun activity has been yanked by the Pakistani press.
From Ashutosh Malik on Pakistani lament about the country's politicians I came across the following article written by a one Mr. Asif Ezdi, who is quoted to be a former member of the Pakistan Foreign Service. http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=18999&Cat=9&dt=12/7/2010
I am amazed at how low people can get to remain in power. It is interesting that while we in India abuse our politicians fervently (well deserved for sure), the Pakistani ones seem to excel even ours in selling their country down the drain. Would be interesting to understand how this happened because here is a country which used to take pride in being better than India till even 1980s and used to be considered to have less levels of absolute poverty that India had and still has. It is so amazing that the rulers have taken advantage of them so completely.
Editor's comment Neither India nor Pakistan has been well served by its political class. But for reasons Editor does not know, while the Indian political class refused to sell out to any country, the Pakistanis from the start were willing to sell out to the US. Further, while Indian politicians' are venal and a lot of them are criminals, they are restrained in their theft so a great deal of money does get to the people. This is not the case in Pakistan.
Reader Malik is absolutely correct about the poverty comparison. Pakistan has had significantly less poverty than India. Two caveats though. First, East Pakistan, NWFP, and Balochistan have always been very poor. West Punjab and Sindh have been well off by subcontinent standards. But that's like taking India's East Punjab with Maharashtra and Gujarat, which are prosperous states.
The second caveat is that Editor suspects - we have to leave it to others better informed to comment - Islam in Pakistan at least has a greater emphasis on charity. It is like Sikhism in India. At least when Editor was in India, a Sikh could always find food and a place to sleep at gurdwaras, the Sikh temples. During the day you contributed your labor in return. Hinduism with its emphasis on karma is a terribly brutal religion with respect to the poor. Maybe American conservatives are Hindus reborn! (Just kidding, folks. ever since Editor actually educated himself about the US economy its pretty clear the liberal ethos is not working. But we are allowed to make a joke now and then.)
A third caveat if needed would be that thanks to India's growing interaction with the west and particularly with the US, more and more well-off Indians are accepting they have a duty to help the poor. This is very different from the hogwash Indian politicians used to - and still do - spew about doing things for the poor. India is changing for the better. People who live there can't see it as clearly, which is natural.
Nonetheless, seeing as India is at the end of fiscal 2010-11 going to hit $1.5-trillion GDP, there is no excuse at all for the state of the 40% downtrodden. The resources are there. The political will and organization is not. But this too will change.
From Luxembourg: What is Hugo getting for Christmas? We absolutely love this story which reader Luxembourg sent us REPORT: Iran Placing Medium-Range Missiles in Venezuela; Can Reach US... And we really hope Hugo and Teheran are stupid enough to actually station missiles in Venezuela. Hugo needs a firm paddling on his royal behind and such a move might actually push the US to deliver such a paddling. But these days, its probably unwise to count on US military action. The record of the last ten years of military intervention has been, shall we euphemistically put it, rather poor. We could indeed argue that the US should NOT intervene militarily should this report be borne out, because the ruling elite (we include politicians, decision-makers, the military, the press, think tanks and so on) has proven itself mightily incompetent and has given military intervention - a legitimate tool of foreign policy - a bad name.
Of course, we doubt the sources. Russian sources are among the worst in the world, and the Hudson Institute is hardly an impartial purveyor of information. Hudson at least has named a newspaper source, the Germany Die Welt (The World) for this Debka.com like report, instead of "military sources" or "intelligence sources", but still, one newspaper report that may have been planted does not a fact make.
Letter from Phil Rosen in defense of Wikileaks Assange is probably a criminal. He may also be guilty of sexual assault, though there is some evidence of a CIA connection with one of his accusers. However none of this is material to the validity of the leaks. We live in a democracy and while it is true at times that compromises must be made for expediency sake during true emergencies, in general the policies of our government should be subject to the political process. And they haven't been. Leaders in both parties seek to bypass political review of our strategic decisions and commitments.
Ten years in to a war on terror, which we all acknowledge is likely to go considerably longer, it may be time to open the strategy discussion up to public review. Combat troops in Pakistan, military strikes in Yemen, back room deals with the Saudis to attack Iran, these can't be
done in secret any more. The real politic analyst will claim we should all know and understand that secret deals and clandestine ops is the way things are done, but if everyone knows that this is the way things are done, why can't we do so openly? The U.S. strategy in Pakistan is not working out. If greater transparency led to an honest discussion of this, maybe politics would favor a strong un-compromised U.S. alliance with India? Hard decisions may become more palatable if the U.S. populace isn't constantly lied to about who are friends are and what their motivations are.
Wikileaks is exposing the raft of lies that have been fed to the American people by successive administrations. Given the poor quality of American strategic planning over the last 20 years, this is
probably a great thing. A little selectivity regarding the leaks would have been nice, but the pentagon and state department would have needed to cooperate and they were incapable of that. Whatever else he has done, at the end of the day American Democracy will be stronger thanks to Assange.

December 10, 2010

Success of Special Forces operations in Afghanistan in the last six months

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/12/special_operations_f.php

Creative Wikileaks Reader Vikhir Akula writes to say that at least one country, Pakistan, has come up with its own "Wikileaks cables" to discredit India: "Titled "Enough evidence of Indian involvement in Waziristan, Balochistan" in The News, the main story deals with a slew of information allegedly from US diplomatic cables sent from Delhi as well as other missions around the world about India. They confirm everything Pakistanis (or at least certain types of Pakistanis) always said about India: it's direct involvement of India in the anti-state activities in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Balochistan, the weakness of the Indian dossier on Ajmal Kassab, the manipulated nature of Indian evidence about the ISI's involvement in the Mumbai attacks, the sissyness of India's generals who do things out of personal ego and petulance rather than well-thought-out strategy, the internal rifts in the Indian army, the similarity of the situation in Kashmir with that in Bosnia in the 1990s, the involvement of Indian intelligence in promoting Hindu extremists to conduct false flag attacks against India itself to implicate the ISI and Indian Muslims etc.
The "cables" also say that Bombay Police's top anti-gang policeman, who died in the 2008 Bombay attacks, told US diplomats in Delhi that he was worried about being killed by extreme right-wing elements in the Indian Army as he was (this is a fact) working to uncover right wing terror groups (none of which have any association with the army, though of course retired officers might have had some involvement). His killing was planned as a deliberate ambush by the Indian Army, says the "Wikileaks", implying the entire Bombay 2008 terror attack was planned and executed by the Indian Army.
A reader sent this article from the British newspaper Guardian about the Pakistan Wikileaks http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/09/pakistani-newspaper-fake-leaks-india
All Editor can say is, if you're going to do disinformation, please come to the experts, which includes the Editor. It will cost you big bucks, of course, but you know the old adage: "You get what you pay for". Pakistan appears to have paid nothing for these "Wikileaks" and the result is not one of them has any credibility - aside from no such cables have been released.
Meanwhile, read this BBC news on the difficulty for the US in prosecuting the Wikileaks founder http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-11952817.
First hacker arrest in Wikileaks "Operation Payback" Dutch police arrested a 16-year old for participating in hacker attacks on behalf of Wikileaks's supporters. He has given names. While the UK Telegraph says he could get a 4-6 year sentence, because of his age we doubt much will be done to him.
Prime Minister Putin says Wikileaks founder's arrest "undemocratic" Yo, Chiefy. We're told in modern Russia over 98% of accused are convicted by the courts, and this is a higher percentage than in pre-democracy days. Care to comment?
Meanwhile, the Prime Minister's new dog has been named "Buffy" thanks to a 5 1/2 year old boy who made the suggestion in an email., says ITAR-Tass.The boy and his parents were invited to visit the Russian PM. (We actually think this news is a lot more significant than most of the stuff we put up, day after day.)
Falkland oil driller says oil was not struck some days after reports said a major potential strike had taken place. This is the same oil rig that the Argentines were protesting about. An analysis of the well product shows it is mainly water.
Gulp! Ohio SSBN replacement buy to cost $90-billion for 12 boats, says the Ares blog on Aviation Week and Space technology. And despite its plans, the US Navy will not reach 48 SSNs till 2040. We wonder if the SSN plan takes into account the PLAN's buildup over the next 30-years.
Meanwhile, Space-X's orbital capsule splashed down after the planned two orbits. The capsule is intended to carry cargo and astronauts to the Space Station. And Japan's Venus probe failed to get into orbit, but Japanese scientists are working to preserve the probe so they can try again in six years, when the probe returns to Venus. The orbiter has 80% of its fuel left, not enough for an immediate re-try. Its solar-powered battery has a design life of 4.5-years, but since the spacecraft will be operating near the sun for the next few years, the battery will not have to be recharged as frequently as was planned. http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=space&id=news/awx/2010/12/08/awx_12_08_2010_p0-275060.xml&headline=Japanese%20Venus%20Probe%20Misses%20Orbit

December 9, 2010

Wikileaks saga continues After Mastercard and Visa cut off Wikileaks's account, hackers attacked and took down for some time the Mastercard site. That its supporters are engaging in clear illegal behavior does not concern Wikileaks. Meanwhile, the organization is selecting cables to make frequent limited releases, maximizing attention and providing no end of entertainment to the world. US name is, of course m-u-d because of US's failure to secure its diplomatic cable traffic. It's one thing to say nothing revealed so far is a big deal - we've said it and its true - but its just embarrassment after embarrassment for countries dealing with the US. When a low-ranking enlisted man manages to get a-hold of so many cables, something is rotten in the Kingdom.
Visa was also attacked. See details of "Operation Payback" at http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/08/operation-payback-attacks-visa/?hp
Some people are angry that Visa/Mastercard have been telling web host companies to stop hosting the Wikileaks site. It amazes us that people who claim to be so smart, such as Wikileaks supporters, including web hosts that support Wikileaks, can be so ignorant. First, Visa/Mastercard would have asked web hosts not to accept payments for Wikileaks from people using its cards. They would not tell companies not to host the site, period. The reason they are doing this is because they want to avoid liability should US Government come down on Wikileaks. Its okay for companies in Iceland to insult Visa/Mastercard, but they have absolutely no idea what the feds can do to a private company, no matter how big, if they want to punish the company. Obviously neither Visa nor Mastercard want to be any position where the US Government can accuse them of improper behavior. Just a subpoena to hand over records will cost each company in the tens of millions of dollars. Who wants that aggro?
So there was a cartoon in the paper the other day which had one diplomat writing to another diplomat, and the letter said: "How are you?! I am fine! The weather is great! How is the weather your side?!", and that's about the gist of it. Wikileaks wanted to damage the US, it has.
Meanwhile, as we have been saying for a while, Sweden is one country in which the Wikileaks founder will be quite safe because what he has done is not illegal under Swedish law. Aside from the impossible position the founder was in, in the UK, after the Swedish warrant, he may find that Sweden will be the right place for him for a few years. The Swedish jails are terribly cozy, and you get weekends off.
We asked around about the 256-bit code because as far as we knew, it can be quite easily broken. Aha! said an expert in reply, 256-RSA can be broken, but people nowadays use RSA only to exchange public keys. The Wikileaks file is coded in 256-DES, which cannot be broken in anything resembling a reasonable time frame. Our expert was very clear that no one outside US NSA can say what its capabilities are.
At which point it occurred to us, why on earth would the US want to decrypt the file? It already knows its lost a gazzilion cables, and by now will have an accurate idea of which files are gone. All Wikileaks's founder is doing is trying to put salt on the Eagles's tail, the encryption is not the issue. Can the US/other governments take down every site that posts the leaks? We suppose they could, but surely not before many people have downloaded the files: 1.3-GB is kind off a small file these days. Editor's alleged 3-mbs cable service from RCN downloads, at best, at 130-kbs, which is about three hours. It takes little time to register another website and upload the files. You call your website www.77greengorillas.com so that the web host has no idea what's the site is about, then Tweet everyone, and before the webhost takes down the site another 100 or 1000 or 10,000 people have the content. Network Solutions will set you up for $7, which is probably what a burger costs in Europe.
Russian MR aircraft buzz Japan-US naval exercises The exercises are said to be the biggest ever staged by the two nations together, involving 44,000 personnel, 60 warships, and 400 aircraft. Two Russian Il-38 May buzzed the exercises for several hours until they were seen off by Japanese F-15s. The exercises were suspended while the Russians were in the area.
The Russians say they did nothing wrong and were in international waters/airspace.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/8188576/Russian-navy-jets-disrupted-US-Japanese-military-exercise.html
Glaciers increasing in some areas, but overall retreating says a UN report detailed by UK's Telegraph. It says that the glaciers started losing ground since the "industrial age". We're not quite sure what this means in terms of dates. The industrial revolution was in full swing by the middle-1800s; if glaciers were losing ground then it can't be attributed to humans as we didn't have cars, big cities, giant power-plants, mechanized agriculture and so on. That doesn't mean we aren't having an effect now, of course, but who knows.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/8188605/Cancun-climate-change-summit-glaciers-increasing-despite-climate-change.html

December 8, 2010

Al-Shabaab's claimed strength in Somalia

http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2010/12/shabaabs_military_strength_in.php

Wikileaks founder is honored guest of HM Prisons After turning himself in, he was jailed without bail because the judge said (a) the gentleman is a nomad of no fixed address; (b) has hidden financial resources. Thus he is a flight risk. Of course he will appeal the court's orders, and if he loses he still has one more appeal. It is unlikely he will succeed because he cannot show he will not be given a fair trial in Sweden. Plus, while we do not know if the appeals court will take this into consideration, he is not wanted for trial. He is simply wanted for questioning. The warrant arose because he refused to return to Sweden for questioning as required.
Five people turned up to offer to post bail for the gentleman. The only name of the five we are familiar with is Ms. Jemima Khan, daughter of a man of considerable wealth, and former wife of Pakistan star cricketer (now politician) Imran Khan. This young lady said she was willing to post bail because she believed in freedom of speech and the right to know. That's truly wonderful and so inspirational we feel we are better people just for having said that. But we'd like to add: "why don't you ~!@#$% go get your country's )(*&^%$ information and let your people have a ~!@#$% right to that information; you are not American, so where does your right to know come into the matter?"
Meanwhile, a lawyer said he was willing that the Wikileaks leader use his address to give to the judge. We hate to say this, but the leader seems to be attracting lawyers who are missing a few cylinders. Had leader given the lawyer's address as his address, that would have further strengthened the judge's position that leader has no fixed address.
All that these people are showing is a blatant anti-Americanism devoid of principle, logic, or even thought. That is their right. And it is our right to trash them in the same way they are trashing the US.
The detailed nature of the Swedish charges for which leader is wanted for questioning are now available. They are more sordid than Editor thought and we're not going to detail them.
Meanwhile, in case anyone makes the mistake of thinking they are dealing with adults the news that in retaliation for Wikileaks founders arrest, hackers attacked the Swiss Post office site and brought it down for some time, and have promised to attack PayPal. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/uk/Hactivists-wage-Operation-Payback/articleshow/7063118.cms
So clearly the founder's supporters think nothing of illegal activities any more than he does, and nor are they troubled that his arrest is for assaulting women, and nothing to do with Wikileaks.
Ron Paul on Wikileaks (sent by reader Flymike). We want to make clear that because we are carrying a quote from Ron Paul does not mean we agree with his fiscal policies except to the extent that America needs to spend within its means, We quote Mr. Paul because we agree with his views on foreign policy and the economy.
"We should view the Wikileaks controversy in the larger context of American foreign policy. Rather than worry about the disclosure of embarrassing secrets, we should focus on our delusional foreign policy. We are kidding ourselves when we believe spying, intrigue, and outright military intervention can maintain our international status as a superpower while our domestic economy crumbles in an orgy of debt and monetary debasement."
We are also starting to ask, as has Mr. Paul, why 65 years after the end of World War II are we still in Germany and Japan, and why are we still in Korea 57 years after the ceasefire. To say "for our security" shows that we are not terribly clever about assuring our security - which we can't pay for in any case. For much too long a mindset of permanent war has existed in Washington - since 1940 if we want to be accurate. The way the GWOT is defined, that alone is going to be good for 50-100 more years of a warfare state.
Editor is a firm believer in America as the (not a) leader of the world. He firmly believes a true Pax America is neccessary and beneficial for the world. He just doesn't see how we can pay for it anymore because while we develop ever more effective weapons, we have let ourselves become a second-rate economy. We need to pull back for 30-50 years, eliminate the deficit, get the economy to grow, employ all those who want to work, and then we can talk of resuming the march to Pax Americana.
The way things are going its going to be a Pax Sinica, and boy, will the world rue the day that happens.
To those Indians who think coexistence with PRC as equals is possible Kindly read the following Times of India article, which details how India is pressuring India not to attend the Nobel prize ceremony for the Chinese dissident. This is outright interference in India's internal affairs. China has told approximately 100 countries it expects them to boycott the ceremony. Nineteen have agreed. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/China-increases-pressure-on-India-to-miss-Nobel-Peace-Prize-ceremony/articleshow/7060823.cms
If this doesn't convince Indians that the PRC will never accept India as an equal, then there is no hope for India. They will deserve all the grief that PRC will give them. And China has shown the rest of the world what to expect when it becomes Number 1 economy.

December 7, 2010

Yemen Al Qaeda leader killed fighting in Mogadishu http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/12/yemeni_al_qaeda_comm.php

Pearl Harbor Day

Wikileaks founder to meet British police by "consent" Editor finds it difficult to criticize anyone for spinning, because the Americans started the whole stupid game and are still very much in first place. Nonetheless, we think this spin by the Wikileaks's founder's lawyer qualifies not for a whole cake, but a big slice. The lawyer says his client will meet the police by "consent".
Ummmm...excuse us please, but there's not much consent involved when the British police have a warrant for you. You can either chain yourself to your bed and have the police haul the bed off with you attached, or you show minimal dignity by saying: "Okay, okay, the game is up, I'll surrender." The lawyer's next step will be to petition the British courts to stop the Wikileaks's gentleman's extradition, but this is not going to work. The British courts will not pass judgment on a Swedish case. The only way they would block extradition is if the accused can show Sweden will not treat him in consonance with European human rights laws, example, torture him. We don't think a lawyer is needed to appreciate its going to be quite difficult to show the Swedes will not abide by human rights conventions.
Meanwhile, Wikileaks loses its Swiss accounts This sounds more dramatic than it is, because the account is in the Swiss postal service bank. Only Swiss residents can have such accounts. Wikileaks's founder gave his Swiss lawyer's address to gain "residency". If you're think this was a seriously stupid move, you think right. But then messiahs don't usually worry too much about the law. Wikileaks has now lost $133,000 in its Paypal and Swiss post office accounts. Not to worry: surely Mr. George Soros can send over a few million dollars in the interests of press freedom.
Editor's advice to young people When you are engaged in illegal conduct, either in the furtherance of your job or for private reasons, make absolutely sure you never break ANY other law. Do not cheat on your taxes, don't speed, don't steal a postage stamp, and if someone smacks you in the kisser turn the other cheeks 'coz you don't want to risk disorderly conduct or assault. Do not raise your voice at your significant other (domestic violence), do not lie to the government or a corporation or anyone, return your library books on time. Do not walk out of a store with a single thing you haven't paid for - we're not talking about shop-lifting, we're saying if the cashier forgot to ring up the orange juice go back and have him ring it up even if you've reached home. Do not bounce even a tiny check. Plus the usual respect your parents, bathe and change your underwear twice a day, brush after every meal, and give the panhandler a dollar (if you have one: if you don't, explain and empathize). You will find all these tips and more in Editor's memoirs when and if they are published.
Also meanwhile, Oz says of course Wikileaks's founder can return The founder is apt to make wild statements, and one he recently made was that he could never return to his country, Australia, and then what was Australian citizenship worth? Doubtless many Swedish young ladies wept at his plight and offered to console him.
So now the Government of Australia has said: of course he can return any time he wants, he's a citizen, and he can also avail himself of consular services overseas etc. But, say the Ozzies - there's always a but, isn't there, if he has broken the law overseas he will have to explain himself. The Government speaks of the Swedish case, not of any Wikileaks's case, but the rumor is the founder cannot go home because the Government will hand him to the US. We're not sure if this is true.
New Scientist says attacks on Wikileaks easily mounted The science and technology weekly says that a hundred computers with regular broadband connections suffice to bring down a site like Wikileaks. Someone with access to a university network would require far fewer. The coding skills needed are unsophisticated.
Wikileaks was hit by 10-billion bits-per-second botnet attacks, most coming from businesses in Russia, Eastern Europe, and Thailand, so presumably hackers had taken control of networks in those countries. The magazine says there are hundreds of similar attacks every day and are not considered a big deal.
This kind of ruins things for conspiracy theorists and disappoints us because we'd hoped the US Government was behind the attacks on Wikileaks servers.
http://www.newscientist.com/blogs/shortsharpscience/2010/12/wikileaks-derailed-by-just-a-h.html
Hugo blames capitalism for Venezuela rains says an article forwarded by reader Luxembourg. Just yesterday we criticized an Israeli rabbi for saying the forest fire in Israel was retribution by God for non-observant Jews. Intrigued by Hugo's claim, Editor immediately got on the God line. Incredible as it may seem, Editor has regular conversations with the Old Boy, though they tend, on both sides, to be of "Yo Mama so ugly..." variety. Old Boy and Editor don't really get along. But we called a truce and said we wanted to know about the Venezuelan rains. The Old Boy said: "Capitalism Shmatilism, I sent the rains as punishment for the Venezuelan people's failure to depose Hugo." We wanted more details, but unfortunately the Old Boy and Editor got into another name-calling insult session.
But: there you have it, Hugo. It wasn't capitalism that brought the rains on Venezuela. It was you. See? You are even more powerful than you think!

December 6, 2010

Compromise Washington style So the Republicans wanted the Bush tax cuts extended for everyone, even those making more than $1-million a year (you have to remember this is taxable income - you can be making much more than that). The democrats wanted tax cuts for everyone but the richest, but they also wanted an extension of federal unemployment benefits.
So in what both sides call a "compromise", the Dems are going to vote to extend all cuts, and the Reps are going to vote to extend the federal unemployment benefits. So we just added $700-billion to the deficit in the 10 years on the basis of the tax cuts for the richest, Editor is not sure what the unemployment extension costs.
Great "compromise": everyone gets everything, America loses.
Editor fully appreciate people need an extension of benefits, ordinary people. He understand there will be real suffering if the benefits are not extended. He is in the same boat as those people as he doesn't have a job. But who is going to pay these debts we are piling up?
As for the Bush tax cuts, they were enacted when we had a surplus. It is simple sense that when you are no longer in surplus, you revoke tax cuts or you cut spending. But Mr. Bush extended the cuts and greatly expanded spending. The Republicans talked a great game about spending cuts. The new Congress hasn't even started and they've already failed on the extension of benefits.
It is not the Republicans are unprincipled, the reality is if they actually cut spending, they will be turned out of office in droves in 2012.
This mess is NOT the fault of the politicians. It is OUR fault as citizens because we, the people, refuse to understand the American party is long over, and the bill collector is knocking at the door.
The Fed has managed to keep interest rates so low that we are not yet getting killed by interest. But the more we go into debt, the more interest rates will have to rise. That will increase the deficit still further, which will shake the confidence of lenders more, so they will demand more interest.
Washington, meet Athens, Dublin, Madrid and Lisbon. While we're out meeting the losers, we may as well start organizing a party for the rapidly approaching day we become a Banana Republic. And as we should have learned by now, these financial crises don't come in on little cat feet, they come in like typhoons and hurricanes.
Wikileaks founder's lawyer threatens "nuclear option" (Thanks to reader Chris Raggio for updating the story) By now its apparent that the British lawyer for Wikileaks's founder is more interested in getting his name in the media than he is concerned about his client. Aside from calling the Swedish Government "lick spittle", he has threatened a "nuclear option" of unredacted disclosures if this "political persecution" of his client continues. http://m.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/assange-threatens-to-release-entire-cache-of-unfiltered-files/article1825922/?service=mobile
Here is the odd thing about the threats of disclosure. The files will be disclosed even if the Wikileaks person is prosecuted in Sweden. Let us repeat that: The gentleman will release files with all names - as reader Raggio comments, so much for not causing harm - in the event he is tried for completely unrelated charges of sexual assault.
Have the gentleman and his lawyer gone mad? You do not threaten a government with blackmail to escape from sexual assault charges! First, its not like the Swedes give a hoot about US documents. Second, is the gentleman believing his own propaganda about the sexual assault cases being brought by Sweden under US pressure, and is he assuming that the US can pressure Sweden to withdrew those charges? Crickey! The man is a nut case!
Incidentally, the gentleman claims that he has distributed the papers to many people in case he is detained, and the papers are in an "unbreakable" 256-bit code. He will release the key if he is detained.
India has more civilian N-reactors than China This was a surprise when we learned China has ~13 civilian N-reactors to India's ~18. The Chinese reactors produce more power as they are bigger. And, of course, China is undertaking a massive expansion with 25 new reactors under construction or planned for operation by 2020, and plans to overtake the US in N-power gigawatts by 2030. Us current has 101-GW installed and may have six new reactors by 2020. The total installed capacity may not expand as some of the older reactors will likely have to be replaced.
India plans on generating 35-GW by 2020. If the plans come through, India and China will be about equal. After 2020, however, India falls behind. It plans 60-GW by 2032, versus China's 100+GW.
Meanwhile, China claims the conventional train speed record with its Shanghai-Beijing high-speed train hitting 484-kmph. The line, to be fully operational next year - a year ahead of schedule - will cut travel time in half, from 10 to five hours. Japan has the world record for speed: a maglev train hit 580-kmph in 2003.
Please: no one needs this aggro Israel's chief rabbi says the recent forest fire in Israel (now almost out thanks to an international effort that included Turkey) which burned 40-square-kilometers of precious forest was "divine retribution" because many Israelis don't properly observe the Sabbath. This is a huge loss for Israel because it is primarily a desert nation. It is unseemly and unnecessarily for the rabbi to make comments for which he can give no proof. Can the rabbi prove the fire wasn't "divine retribution" because he has been hassling Israelis about their observances? We don't need hard-line fundamentalism anywhere in the world, particularly not after such a tragedy.

December 5, 2010

President Obama makes unannounced visit to Afghanistan He assured US soldiers that we are within reach of winning the war - talk about legal parsing, "within reach", no less. More importantly, the Prez spoke with Afghan President Karzai for 15-minutes. No visit, however brief, just a phone conversation with the leader of the country we are saving. We leave it our readers to draw their own conclusions.
India forms a second anti-piracy patrol this time off its Arabian sea islands. India already contributes to the international anti-piracy efforts off Somalia. But Somali pirates have extended their operations to ever most distant areas, seizing ships that are sailing closer to India than to Africa. This new patrol will include land based MR aircraft as well as warships.
Meanwhile, one pirate on trial in Virginia for firing on a US warship has been sentenced to 30 years.
Wikileaks loses Paypal access Paypal shut down Wikileaks's account for violation of Paypal rules that forbid use of an account for illegal purpose.
Doubtless the ever-snarky Wikileaks leader will have something to say about another American organization disrespecting free speech. Which will be to miss the point. What Wikileaks did is illegal under American law. US may be having trouble getting its paws on the head of the organization, but it has no trouble getting its paws on US organizations dealing with Wikileaks. This is not about freedom of speech. This is about obeying the laws of your country. In America if you disagree with a law, you either litigate, or you lobby for the law to be changed. Both options are available to Wikileaks. Now, of course, Wikileaks can say "we don't have the money". True, but that's life.
Just the other day, Editor's claim for unemployment on grounds of forced resignation was denied because his former Board of Education said: "The principal does not fire teachers, the Board of Education does. You cannot apriori assume that a principal's decision will be accepted the Board of Education." No, and you cannot apriori assume the sun will rise in the East just because that's the way its risen through human history. But you wouldn't want to bet on it.
(The Editor's former principal sees herself as a reformer. She wanted about a third of the teacher roster gone. The third was almost all older teachers and foreign born teachers. Because if you get fired from a school you basically cant teach again, Editor made an agreement with the principal he would resign in exchange for decent references. Principal kept her side of the bargain, no complaints. Editor firmly believes the principal of a school has a right to have the teachers she wants.)
At the hearing, in response to this, Editor explained that the Board of Education does not second-guess its principals in the matter of teachers. No one paid any attention to this. Had the Editor money to bring a lawyer to the hearing, or money to hire a lawyer for an appeal, this matter could not have been so been brushed aside. But to have money you have to have a job. If you have a job you don't need unemployment. Editor thinks no one even heard him say he had been looking for a job for a year, starting six months before he received his last paycheck, and wouldn't be asking for unemployment had he found a job, the unemployment being less than 30% of his salary.
Is any of this fair? No. Is it the way the world works? Yes.
Normally there is a shortage of highly qualified mathematics teachers. But since school districts have no money, and are reducing payrolls, a shortage becomes irrelevant. They cant fill positions, period. Also, most school districts find its cheaper to fill empty positions with young teachers starting out their careers than with experienced teachers. There's also the problem of no one in America likes hiring old people. Is this fair? No it isn't. But this is America: if you don't like it, you're free to go some where else. So ditto Wikileaks founder. He had the option of not putting salt on the Eagle's tail feathers. He got a cheap, school boy thrill out of doing it. Now he has the face the consequences, and in his case, that's entirely fair.
US diplomats suggest Iran losing control of its Balochistan according to a Wikileaks cable, reports Pakistan's Daily Jang. Sis-Balochistan is Iran's biggest province, lies in the east, and borders Pakistan and Afghanistan, where other Baloch live. The rail line between Pakistan and Iran is reported to be under continual attack, and rumors speak of Iranian border officials abandoning their posts at night for fear of attack.
We are in no position to address the correctness or otherwise of this cable, but it is interesting. There are geopolitical reasons why an independent Balochistan consisting of parts of Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan might be strategically advantageous to the United States. The Pakistani Baloch in any case from the end of British rule in 1947 wanted complete autonomy though not necessarily independence, and the history between Pakistan and Balochistan is one of exploitations and rebellions put down by force and in recent decades a continuous military presence that Balochis find alien and oppressive. If Iran were to lose Sis-Balochistan, or if Pakistan Balochistan were to become independent, the prospects for a new Baloch nation increase exponentially. Such a nation could come under US influence. While long-range strategic thinkers may be examining the desirability of such a development, and while India and the US - mainly the latter - may be supporting Baloch separatists, we should keep in mind that likely the gainer will be China. It has shown that, all over the world, it is prepared to pump in more money for aid and investment combined with no questions, than the US. The Chinese already have important investments in Balochistan, the main one being the rapidly expanding port of Gwader. The region lies astride Chinese oil lines of communication from the Gulf, enable it to outflank India on yet another flank, the Arabia Sea, strengthen Chinese influence in the Muslim Central Asian republics, and blocks/neutralizes US influence in the Gulf.
http://www.thenews.com.pk/NewsDetail.aspx?ID=6518
Pakistani imam offers reward for killing of Christian woman He heads the most important Peshawar mosque, and has offered a reward of about US$8000 to anyone who kills the Christian woman already under a death sentence for blasphemy, a charge she has denied. So essentially he is encouraging the prison guards or police to kill the woman in their custody.
US Government, of course, has nothing to say except a few platitudes that would make an amoeba vomit, about the need for tolerance and mercy and so on and so forth. It's okay, US Government, no need to get worked up, its only a Christian that's going to get killed.
Meanwhile, Lahore High Court has issued an injunction against any government official pardoning the woman. Way to go, people. Editor thinks we need to sent Pakistan another draft for $1-billion, they're our allies in the GWOT, after all. Wouldn't want the Pakistanis to get mad at us, now would we?
Just in case anyone is in doubt about the nature of the case, this from the Times of India: "A report submitted to President Asif Ali Zardari by Minority Affairs Minister Shahbaz Bhatti concluded that the blasphemy case against her had been registered on "grounds of personal enmity and the story narrated in the FIR was concocted and malafide". "FIR" stands for First Information Report, the legal complaint to the police on the basis of which a case is registered. So neither the police, nor the courts, was at all bothered that the woman is innocent. She has been accused of blasphemy by people around her, so hang her.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/Pak-cleric-offers-Rs-5-lakhs-for-killing-Christian-woman/articleshow/7036786.cms
Learning something new Using 1987 as an index of 100, English retail prices climbed from 0.4 in 1264 to 2.6 in 1900. Is that stable or what? It's 636 years, after all, from Henry III to the next-to-last year of Queen Victoria and all that. But in the next 110 years after 1900, prices went to 210, rising by 80-times. Average real wages rose from 5.8 in 1264 to 138 in 2009. Amazing figures.
Yes, you have correctly guessed the Editor did not have a date on Saturday night. But IF he had had a date, he would have discussed these figures with the date. Which likely means he would have entered McDonald's with a date and left without a date. Life is so unfair.

December 4, 2010

Dawn of Pakistan claims "Talks on Afghan reconciliation in ‘final stage’" This is the biggest load of disinformation to come out of the Afghan War to date. We cannot presume to know for a fact what is behind this bizarre claim, but suspect the Pakistan Government is trying to tell the Americans: "Don't bother keeping us from the peace table because we already have everything wrapped up." Nothing has been wrapped up.
http://www.dawn.com/2010/12/04/talks-on-afghan-reconciliation-in-%E2%80%98final-stage%E2%80%99.html
Good news for a change: X-37B returns to earth Readers may recall about seven months ago the US launched a "mini-shuttle" into space using an Atlas 5. The vehicle can stay aloft for 270 months. Its reentry was autonomous, the first time any US spacecraft has been returned this way. It landed at Vanderberg AFB, and will be prepped for another mission for Spring 2011 launch.
The payload bay can carry ~220-kg, but the US refused to say what payload, if any, the vehicle carried on its mission. Civilian satellite watchers says the vehicle changed its orbit six times.
Clearly the vehicle can be used to inspect friendly and enemy satellites up-close-and-personal. You can see the possibilities. One clearly is launching small satellites, emergency refueling of another satellite, and perhaps also emergency repairs. But as clearly another is to plant a limpet mine on an enemy satellite, where it sits waiting for an activation signal.
US has decided to talk very openly about the vehicle, perhaps figuring it cannot be hidden during launch and orbits; but has kept all other information secret, such as what the vehicle has been up to.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-11911335
Wikileaks goes to Switzerland after its domain name registrar pulled www.wikileaks.org The registrar said that attacks on Wiki sites was messing up business of other customers.
The Wikileaks founder says he may apply for asylum in Switzerland as Iceland and Switzerland are the only countries where Wikileaks feels safe. Actually, Babaloo, Wikileaks was safe as houses in Sweden - still is, and you'd have been fine in Sweden except for your inability to keep your hands firmly in your pockets (PS: This is a euphemism).
We're not sure where asylum comes in. No one as yet has persecuted the founder for political speech. Sweden wants him for criminal matters; US is considering action under spying laws, but seems reluctant to move forward. You cant be complicit in stealing a country's - or a company's - secrets and claim you're engaging in political speech.
Second arrest warrant issued by Sweden The British asked Sweden for clarification on the first Euro warrant issued by Sweden for the Wikileaks person. The Swedes have sent it, and the British have said when they get it they will serve the warrant on the person as they know where he is. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/uk/Assange-in-UK-second-arrest-warrant-issued/articleshow/7037836.cms
The person's lawyer keeps maintaining the Swedish Government is acting outrageously, and if the prosecutor wants to talk to the person she has only to pick up the phone.
Can we give a little piece of advice to the person's lawyer? When there's an arrest warrant for your client because he did not return for questioning when required by the prosecutor, you do not attempt to negotiate with the prosecutor, setting the terms and conditions under which your client will talk. On top of which none of your terms and conditions comply with the prosecutor's order that your client return to Sweden. Prosecutors in any country get a little bit annoyed if you as an accused start dictating to them. Personally we think the Swedes are being terribly polite and patient. We'd like to tell you that American prosecutors are singularly devoid of politeness or patience. If the Americans come after your client, don't play games. It will not go over well with either the US DOJ or with the court. Thank you. You don't have to pay us for that piece of advice, Editor gave it to you free.

December 3, 2010

Bill Roggio on US Special Forces deployments with the Pakistan Army - and on how these may be in jeopardy thanks to Wikileaks.http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/12/us_special_forces_te.php

Americans should read this news item from Pakistan and think if we should involve ourselves with that country From Pakistan's Daily Jang: Another group of over 20 religious parties have accused Punjab Governor Salmaan Taseer of patronising a global conspiracy to secularise Pakistan.
They have also demanded his immediate removal and registration of a blasphemy case against him for calling the Islamic law as cruel and unjustified. Reading out a joint declaration after the meeting held under the aegis of Muttahida Tehrik Khatm-e-Nabuwwat Rabita Committee (MTKNRC) at the office of the Majlis-e-Ahrar-e-Islam on Tuesday, the leaders alleged that the Punjab governor had hijacked the judicial process of blasphemy convict Asia Masih before she had even made an appeal against her conviction, in an attempt to extradite her to the US. (This is the Christian lady sentenced to hang for allegedly insulting the Prophet. No one knows the truth of what she did, because in Pakistan the simple allegation made against a non-Muslim suffices for a conviction. While working in the fields, this lady went to give drinking water to other women, and was cursed by them for presuming, as an infidel, to bring water to them. By one account, she is alleged to have said: "Your Prophet has worms in his mouth." There is intense pressure on the Pakistan Government to execute her.)
With veteran Pakistan movement worker and Majlis-e-Ahrar ameer Syed Ataul Muhemin Bukhari in the chair, the meeting in its declaration said that the governor had committed blasphemy by declaring the blasphemy law cruel and unjustified and violated the oath of allegiance to the Constitution of Pakistan at the time of assuming his office.
The meeting warned all parliamentarians against becoming a part of any attempt to amend the blasphemy law, threatening to siege them at public places. The meeting announced full backing to the decisions taken by the all parties conference organised by JUP in Karachi the previous day. It also announced continuing the struggle to protect the Islamic laws and observing Friday, Dec 3, as a countrywide protest day against the rulers and secular lobbies for meddling with the country’s laws and settling issues under an international conspiracy against Islam.
http://www.thenews.com.pk/02-12-2010/National/18381.htm
Please notice we are not commenting on the justice or otherwise of the sentence on Asia Masih. What we are commenting on is that "another group of 20 religion parties" wants the Governor of Punjab state to hang for saying that Islamic law is cruel - the punishment for blasphemy in Pakistan is death, and of course this applies only to people blaspheming Islam. This group is among many doing their utmost to see executed a woman who was insulted for being a Christian and who may or may not have retaliated with harsh words against Islam. Further, religious parties are threatening parliamentarians who might move to amend blasphemy laws. We think by now Americans understand that in Pakistan threatening someone is an incitement to murder, it's not just some people practicing free speech.
Does the United States honestly think that it can moderate or modernize Pakistan? We don't think even the most arrogant members of the American elite/ruling class think they can.
Swedish Supreme Court rejects Wikileaks founder's appeal asking for quashing of an arrest warrant against him. We are deeply impressed with the CIA: it can now be conclusively proven the CIA controls the entire Swedish police, prosecutorial service, and the courts.
More seriously, the British are smirking at reports suggesting no one knows where the Wikileaks founder is. Sources are saying the British know exactly where he is. This seems reasonable, because the gentleman cannot use his own passport to travel, and to use another passport makes another criminal offense. Of course, we're unsure why after the Interpol Red Card was issued the British haven't picked him up. But how stupid of us (smack on the forehead). The CIA is behind the British failure to pick him up. Everyone knows the CIA controls British banks, their Foreign Office, the police and so on. It can now be revealed from our Washington sources that Prince Philip has been in the CIA's pay for sixty years. He is actually a very clever, sophisticated man, and says silly things only at the CIA's behest because the CIA wants the British monarchy look ridiculous. Why? Who cares why?
BTW, some people have been fun at Prince Andrew's expense for some undiplomatic comments he made at a Central Asian state dinner. Before you join in the finger-pointing, just remember whose son he is.
Alleged photo of ROK artillery shelling impact in area of DPRK artillery battery http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/12/02/2010120200566.html The south Korean paper says it got the photograph from Stratfor. Before one is inclined to criticize the seeming lack of accuracy of the ROK fire, please to remember that counter-battery is difficult to do, particularly without MLRS which impacts a wide area. ROK fired only 80 shells in retaliation against DPRK's 100. If ROK began retaliation after DPRK ceased fire, even if counter-battery radar was available on the West Islands, there was little ROK could do to serious hurt DPRK with just 80 rounds.

December 2, 2010

Bill Roggio on US successes against Al Qaeda in Iraq
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/12/al_qaeda_in_iraqs_se_1.php

Interpol Red Card issued for Wikileaks leader's arrest, US may have a sealed warrant The Red Card is not an international arrest warrant, as we had believed. It is a request to all 188 Interpol nations to help in finding and detaining a wanted person "with a view toward their arrest and extradition" (Interpol, quoted in CNN). This Red Card has been issued in response to a Swedish court request. Our suspicion is the Swedish courts are annoyed that the Wikileaks person has been playing games with them and refusing to voluntarily present himself for questioning. His British lawyer is said he left the country with the prosecutor's permission, implying he has not done anything wrong. Unfortunately, while the lawyer can spin all he wants, if the prosecutor's permission was required, we can 100% guarantee that the permission requires him to return to Sweden when the prosecution wants. It is not an acquittal of charges. Also, since Sweden has no bail, the courts may not be particularly amused by the person running around a free man when he is wanted in Sweden. And, most importantly, an accused cannot set the conditions for how he will be questioned, which is what the person's lawyer has been trying to do.
Jeffery Toobin, a well-know Washington area lawyer who consults for CNN, says US may have already issued a sealed warrant for the Wikileaks's leader's arrest and is waiting only till he touches down in a country that will extradite him. Right now nowhere knows where the gentleman is.
Mr. Toobin says the 1st Amendment does not protect people from crimes such as disclosure of classified information. He says even American newspapers can be prosecuted. As such, we infer that the Wikileaks person may not be able to pull a 1st Amendment defense if he is brought to the US. We remain unclear on if the 1st Amendment applies to people outside the US. http://www.cnn.com/2010/CRIME/12/01/wikileaks.toobin/index.html?hpt=T1
Amazon, which had taken over the Wikileaks site earlier this week after the site was attacked by hackers, has dropped the site. This has occasioned the expected condemnation of Amazon for censorship. The problem is this. The right to say what you want is one thing. But there is no right to steal documents and use them as your saying. This is why we have said that if Wikileaks goes along with its plan to publish documents from a big American bank, it is going to be in trouble because those documents will be stolen. One can vaguely wave one's hand and say "the people have a right to know" when its the government. But this right to know does not apply to material illegally obtained from a private person, which is what a corporation is. That's clear possession of stolen property.
BTW, in case readers wonder why we are giving Wikileaks so much space, its simply because the legal aspects to the Swedish case and the documents is a puzzle, and we like solving puzzles. The importance of the leaked documents is of little consequence because they don't say much anyone doesn't already know. Doesn't change the case though.
As Editor explained once to a lawyer for a person accused of espionage in India, the government can take a piece of toilet paper and stamp it secret, and under the law it becomes a secret. Courts are never in the business of second-guessing should a document be stamped secret or not. The lawyer wanted to base his case on that the documents seized from the accused contained no information that was really secret and certainly if subpoenaed Editor would have said even if it earned him yet another place on the Government's "Do not invite for tea" list. It would have made no difference to the outcome of the case.
Iraq Border Guard a mess Washington Post carried an article yesterday describing how ineffective the Iraqi Border Guard is and how the border between Iran and Iraq is for practical purposes an open border. The article had stuff like there is no gasoline for Border Guard vehicles so they do not patrol; spares are not made available or made available for months; and the scanners the US has paid run on power supplied by the Iranians, and whenever the Iranians think a crucial shipment will be examined by the Border Guard, they simply flip the OFF switch.
This last is highly amusing in a Kurt Vonnegut sort of the way - you need the enemy's electricity to run the scanners that you use to stop the enemy from smuggling arms and explosives into your country. If someone wrote a novel on this, no one would take the novel seriously.
Our point is: the state of the Iraq border Guard is not a US problem. The Iraqis can now blame inadequate training and insufficient resources all they want, the reality is it is for them to supply gasoline and spares, and to man their border posts. As for inadequate training, we can assure readers that thanks to the US, the Border Guard is better trained than it ever was in pre-US times. As for corruption, what does the US have to with that? This is an Iraqi problem.
The other reality is that Iran is a Shia state, and so is Iraq. The political and religious leaderships of both countries are completely intertwined. This is why everyone now says: "Uh Oh! Giving democracy to the Iraqi Shia means they will democratically decide to align with Iran", so the US loses. Well, at some point we have to move on. US Government made a total ass of the country by invading Iraq, and it has given Iraq to America's enemies not just on a plate, but also with a nice greeting card, a band with 76 trombones playing, and a bevy of dancing girls accompanying. Okay, so what's to be done about it now? Come home, forget about it, and try not to make the same mistake again. That's what we're doing.
Letter from Mark Earnest Is it me or has the whole DPRK/ROK dust up suddenly dropped off media radar? A week ago we were all cowering in our bomb shelters afraid of WWIII. Then poof, story gone. Any hunches?
Editor responded: In our "enlightened" age we have decided DPRK has understandably if not necessarily justifiable reasons for its rage, that it is a bad boy with behavior issues, and that just as we do with misbehaving children in the classroom, we must use "positive discipline" to handle DRPK. Just as we don't paddle misbehaving students any more, we don't smack misbehaving countries.
The reality is the US/ROK do not want war, or to risk war. That being the case, far be it for Orbat.com to insist the DPRK problem be taken care of by returning force with force so that the incentives for misadventure are reduced. You can, of course, argue that given time and patience DPRK will collapse on its own and the problem will go away. But neither China nor ROK is particularly keen for DPRK to collapse for their own reasons. China does not want refugees, more important, it does not want a unified Korea that will be even more powerful than ROK has become, in economic terms. after what happened in German, ROK is quite unhappy at the thought of paying for decades to integrate the north. Nonetheless, given the power of the modern state to subjugate its citizens, perhaps the only way to bring about the collapse of DPRK is to hit back.
Frankly, given the mess we are in at home, for all Editor's very hard line hawkish instincts, he thinks its better for the US to mind its own business worldwide. ROK has the capability to go nuclear very quickly, if it feels existentially threatened, let it go nuclear. That, after all was the game plan with South Africa and Israel, and is likely very much the game plan for Taiwan.
America has conclusively proved that in a post-Cold war world, we lack the ability to manage our foreign security objectives with any kind of reason or any sense of cost-effectiveness. We need to pull back and rebuild America; else we will collapse due to over-reach. There is no reason America shouldn't remain top dog with 4% of the GDP devoted to defense; after all, we spend more on defense than the rest of the world put together. But remember, raw power cannot substitute for using our brains, something we seem unable to do. Remember, Goliath was the strong man, David was a boy armed only with a sling. We all know how that story ends.

December 1, 2010

If you think Wikileaks founder is paranoid...here's something from Dawn of Karachi on General Hamid Gul, former head of Pakistan ISI and violently anti-American.
(By the way, we are not criticizing him for his political views: he is a Pakistani nationalist and his dislike of America is then hardly surprising. He hates India too, which again the Editor has no problem with, though the Editor is from India, because it is an honest hate, nothing opportunist. It has been Editor's sad experience in life that your enemies are always a good bit more honest than your friends. We would gladly invite General Gul for drinks and dinner. Wouldn't do it for most of our Indian "friends". But we digress.)
That General Gul is a creator of the Taliban and still much involved with them is no secret. So its not surprising that ten Wikileaked (aha! We created a new verb from a noun!) cablesdiscuss his urging the Taliban to strike at Americans in Afghanistan.
Now, we've discussed the Wikileaks founder's paranoid statements about his Swedish criminal case as a CIA plot. General Gul goes one better. He says the Wikileaks dump is a plot by the Americans to blame him for the impending defeat in Afghanistan.
We've never been jealous of General Gul. Until we read the Dawn article. http://www.thenews.com.pk/latest-news/5932.htm We've been wanting to reveal to our readers that the real reason for the dump is that the American Government wants to get him. We checked with our sources, and alas, the American Government is unaware the Editor exists. He is not mentioned even once in the nearly three million cables, only part of which have been released. Oh the insult! Oh the insignificance of one's existence! Editor needs to console himself with another chocolate bar.
Pakistan Uranium Production Reactor Wikileaks has an item on US efforts to recover fuel used in a research reactor US gave to Pakistan years ago. Just wanted to remind people this reactor is under IAEA surveillance. So while clearly it would be better to remove the fuel, it does not present a danger to anti-proliferation. Plus the fuel produced is not anywhere near weapons grade and we doubt it can be turned into such. The real danger is Pakistan's unsafeguarded plutonium reactors, not the uranium route including the centrifuges.
The irony of the Wikileaks founder's actions We don't think it is neccessary any more to question the assertion that the gentleman is on an anti-American crusade. He wants the "people" to know about the devious machinations of the US Government. Which people is another matter. One would think the only ones with a people's right to know about the cables would be the American people, and while brief surveys of various blogs hardly constitutes scientific investigation, it seems a majority of Americans who write in to blogs want the founder to be a guest of the US Government in a warm, comfy cell.
But anyway: so he wants to reveal what a monster is the US Government. This is ironical, because supposing he had revealed three million cables from China or Russia, we don't think he would be so readily giving dramatic interviews. It is precisely because the US Government is fairly civilized that the alleged leaker, an army soldier, has not been executed after questioning involving the removal of sensitive parts of his anatomy. It is precisely the reason why Wikileaks founder still roams around free. He takes advantage of democratic countries like Australia, Sweden, and the UK to conduct his devious life. He gets to appeal to the Swedish courts against his arrest warrant.
Wouldn't be doing much protesting in China or Russia. For one thing there wouldn't be an arrest warrant that he'd be shown. We are told that if and when the US issues a warrant for his arrest, most US allies will NOT turn him in because they respect his freedom of speech. If ever he is arrested and brought to the US for trial, he will have all rights and the best lawyers. Under US 1st Amendment rulings, its very difficult to punish someone for publishing classified information, though the person stealing it can, of course, be severely punished.
So: he enjoys all democratic protections in a country/countries he opposes, and tells us things we already knew. The countries that require a Wikileaker, of course will not be getting visits from this gentleman.
For the gent's next act read http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/worldarticlelist/articleshow/7015476.cms We do feel compelled to remind him that corporations are a lot more ruthless than governments.
Meanwhile, Mrs. Sarah Palin wants the Wikileaks founder hunted down like Al Qaeda. She has attacked the US Government for its inaction. What a lady! We suggest she get a Double Zero commission. She is an avid hunter, she uses a moose gun, and she never misses. If she adds the gentleman to her bag she will surely be elected Prez in 2012. Of course, not being from Alaska, only from Iowa, we'd prefer if she brought him down without shooting him. Us Iowans are not into the sight of blood.
ROK Government considering stationing rockets and missiles on West Islands according to a ROK newspaper http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/11/30/2010113001083.html The missile could include 500-km cruise missiles and the rockets could include 300-km range MRLS. Meanwhile, the paper says that the rocket battery sent to the West Islands is equipped with the US 12-round MLRS.
Terracotta model for Michelangelo's "Pieta" said to be found An American art historian found a terracotta model about 12" high for the statue, one of the most famous sculptures of Western civilization. The model has been dated to the late 1400s. The "Pieta" depicts Jesus' mother cradling his lifeless body after it was taken down from the cross.

November 30, 2010

ROK newspaper says Army knew of DPRK artillery shift prior to the firing incident. Three IV Corps rocket batteries were moved within range of the islands. But the information did not get disseminated to the ROK forces on the island. When they retaliated, their artillery fire was directed against empty positions as the rocket batteries had moved. It was only in the middle of the exchange that ROK artillery on the island realized it was under attack by rockets, thanks to counter-battery radar.
http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/11/26/2010112600954.html
Most peculiarly, while DPRK continues to blame the ROK for triggering the incident, it has apologized for civilian deaths.
Meanwhile, ROK is to send a second 155mm SP gun battery to the five West Sea Islands, and will replace 10 x 105mm towed howitzers with 155mm howitzers. Plans to cut the 5000-man 6th Marine Brigade that protects the islands to a regiment of 1800 Marines have been scrapped. ROK artillery is located in massive concrete structures. Photographs shows that DPRK artillery managed barely to make shallow pock marks in the concrete defenses.
The newspaper says DPRK has 1000 artillery pieces up to 170mm capable of targeting the West Islands.
Top LeT commander in Kashmir killed says the Times of India. He was responsible for a number of attacks on the Indian Army. Though naturally it is being said this is a big blow to LeT, we already know from years of US anti-terrorist ops that these organizations are highly resilient and quick to replace killed leaders.
One Iran N-Scientist killed, one wounded says Teheran. A motorcycle targeted each of two cars carrying the N-scientists and attached magnetic bombs to them before the bombs exploded.
Debka.com says that from photographs it appears the cars were shot at rather than bombed. Debka says that the scientist killed was Iran's top expert on the Stuxnet virus and the other was responsible for magnetic isotope separation research. If we recall right South Africa used this method to make its seven N-weapons.
Pakistan and India division designations After a long investigation, Mandeep Singh Bajwa confirms that Pakistan 25th and 26th Mechanized Divisions exist. Earlier they had armored division numbers. Though Pakistani sources had listed the two mechanized divisions in Wikipedia, we were skeptical till we got confirmation that the armored division numbers are no longer in use. No hard information yet on why Pakistan made this change. One guess is that Pakistan has accelerated the formation of its third armored division for its new Army Reserve South and pulled tank regiments from the independent armored brigades making up the armored divisions that were previously Corps Reserves V, XXXI, and XXX Corps. (Current Army Reserve South will become Army reserve Center). But this is only a guess.
Meanwhile, though we were extremely doubtful that 71st Mountain Division was indeed the number of the second Indian mountain division raised in 2009-2010, as repeatedly said in the press, that number is confirmed. The reason we had our doubts about 71 is that there are so many empty numbers in the 30s and 50s there seemed no reason to jump to the 70s.
Editor has been gnashing his teeth about this illogic. The Directorate of Military Operations will hear from him. Whereupon Editor's letter will be tossed in the trash because no one will know where 71 came from. Our personal suspicion is that a sweeper in DMO saw a document and put in 71.
As far as we know the next two mountain divisions will have numbers from the 30s and 50s series. Both are to be raised in 2011.
Why the US is sliding downhill A young man in his late twenties had a brilliant idea. Women's commercial sports are failing in America, so he has promoted a football (American football) league where ladies play dressed in - er - their underwear. Being good looking is the number one requirement to be selected. Audiences of thousands pay $18-$95 a ticket to watch games of the 10-team league which plays 4 games per team. The ladies are paid a few hundred to a couple of thousand dollars depending on the ticket sales.
This young man is making lots of money, and is thinking of expanding to Mexico City, Japan, and Australia.
Well, good for him. He was formerly employed by an internet company, which reminded us that the best computer minds in America now focus on apps. No one wants to do the hard stuff. When it comes to entertainment, no one can beat the Americans. Way to go, American Exceptionalism and world's sole superpower.
Meanwhile, the Chinese have presented their new twin-jet C919 airliner competitor to the Boeing 737 and Airbus 320. Its first flight is for 2014, and first service deliveries are for 2016. It has 55 orders already, plus 45 options. One of the customers is - GE Commercial Air Services, a major aviation leasing company. So you will see the aircraft in the US, no doubt. Six different models are planned.
Now, how did China out of nowhere become a potential competitor of Boeing and airbus? After all, its previous airliner effort dates to the 1970s, with the Boeing 707 clone the Y10.
Well, China simply leapfrogged the missing decades by partnering with the west, and forcing western companies to turn over technology in exchange for rights to do business in China. Remember when the Chinese started to swamp the US with toys and garments, and we said "that's okay, because we'll sell them high-tech stuff?" It never worked out that way: China exports ten times the electrical machinery to us as we sell to China. That's just one example. In another decade, we wont be exporting a whole lot of airliners either, and they'll be sending us airlines to compete against the 737, which as far as we know is the largest selling model in the world, in its class.
And believe it or not, the undervalued yuan doesn't have a whole lot to do with this imbalance. Sure, the revalued yuan will knock clothes and toys to places like Bangladesh, but the Chinese will switch to high tech. They already are. They invest more than twice as much in clean energy as we do, for example.: and their economy is a third ours.
Business Week said earlier in the year that US "ranks sixth—behind such nations as Singapore, South Korea, and Sweden—and it ranked last among 40 nations in progress on innovation and competitiveness in the most recent decade. China placed first." http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/apr2010/id20100420_110955.htm
So, people, by all means lets ogle the ladies in the Fantasy Lingerie League. A great idea. Meanwhile, the Chinese are eating our breakfast, lunch, and dinner in innovative technologies such as clean energy.

November 29, 2010

Wikileaks: The Big Yawn So here are some of the things Wikileaks has leaked. We had to put toothpicks under our eyelids to stay away so we could write this news item, is really is THAT exciting. The below are direct quotes from http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/Pak-US-in-worrying-stand-off-over-nuclear-fuel-WikiLeaks/articleshow/7007322.cms
American and South Korean officials discussed the prospects for a unified Korea, should the North's economic troubles and political transition lead the state to implode. South Korea was even willing to offer economic incentives to China.
China's Politburo directed the intrusion into Google's computer systems in the country, as part of a coordinated campaign of computer sabotage carried out by government operatives, private security experts and Internet outlaws recruited by the Chinese government.
The Yemeni government has sought to cover up US role in missile strikes against the local branch of Qaida. At a January meeting, Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh tells Gen David Petraeus: "We'll continue saying the bombs are ours, not yours".
When Afghanistan's vice president visited the UAE last year, local authorities working with the Drug Enforcement Administration discovered that he was carrying $52 million in cash. With wry understatement, a cable from the American Embassy in Kabul called the money "a significant amount" that the official, Ahmed Zia Massoud, "was ultimately allowed to keep without revealing the money's origin or destination" (Massoud denies taking any money out of Afghanistan.
American diplomats in Rome reported in 2009 on what their Italian contacts described as an extraordinarily close relationship between Vladimir Putin and the Italian PM, including "lavish gifts", lucrative energy contracts and a "shadowy" Russian-speaking Italian go-between. They wrote that Berlusconi "appears increasingly to be the mouthpiece of Putin" in Europe.
The documents show Saudi donors remain chief financiers of militant groups like al-Qaida and that Chinese government operatives have waged a coordinated campaign of computer sabotage, targeting the US and its allies.
One of the revelations was a dangerous stand-off with Pakistan over nuclear fuel. Since 2007, US has mounted a highly secret effort, so far unsuccessful, to remove from a Pakistani research reactor highly enriched uranium that American officials fear could be diverted for use in an illicit nuclear device. In May 2009, Ambassador Anne Patterson reported that Pakistan was refusing to schedule a visit by American technical experts because, as a Pakistani official said, "if the local media got word of the fuel removal, 'they would portray it as the US taking Pakistan's nuclear weapons,' he argued."
Saudi and Al Qaeda The sole point we'd like to make about the cables is the Saudi Al Qaeda connection. With these cables out, the Government of the United States cannot pretend it is not having diplomatic, economic, and military relationship with a country that supports and exports terrorism. In other words, GUS is violating its own laws, and treating with an enemy. Back in the day before Americans learned the ignoble art of parsing, this used to be called treason. Is there any point to beating up the Pakistanis when the biggest terror threat to American security is the US-Saudi alliance?
The printer bomb plot, which could have brought down cargo planes over heavily populated US urban areas, has been claimed by Al Qaeda. Meanwhile, the Saudi ruler is in the US undergoing medical treatment. Shouldn't someone be issuing a warrant for his arrest?
Wikileaks and the CIA The Wikileaks founder says the organization's servers are under a denial-of-service attack. We find it amusing that he attributes so much power to the CIA that, he says, it plots with Swedish courts to frame him, but the US can neither detain him, or even ask for an arrest warrant against him, stop him from leaking what will eventually be another 3-million cables, or completely shut down his servers. What a pathetic little man.
Do not expect Korean crisis to go away soon All indications are that DPRK will escalate further. It's all part of Kim the Second's strategy to get the military to accept Kim the Third. read http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/8166343/Kim-Jong-il-laying-the-ground-for-succession-with-military-attacks.html and ask: should we be negotiating with mad dogs? Again, Orbat.com is not saying to shoot the mad dogs. It's saying let them froth and bark; if they bite and and ROK asks for help, well, we have to give help as we are treaty bound. There is no need for the US to take the lead in this crisis; we have our own problems. As for getting China's cooperation, why on earth should China cooperate to help the US and ROK? China wants a pro-Beijing ROK and it wants the US gone.

November 28, 2010

Royal Navy ends carrier operations You have to admire the Brits. In October Government made up its mind it had to save money and that everything including defense was on the table. As part of the reductions, a light aircraft carrier was to be scrapped immediately, and four Harrier squadrons flown by the RAF and Royal Navy were also be to scrapped. In November Harriers flew off HMS Ark Royal for the last time, and its just a matter of detail to disband the Harrier squadrons. Imagine the US acting so quickly on a defense issue. Actually, it cannot be imagined. The Brits are also cutting subsidies for housing, education, and a whole bunch of other stuff. No ten-year debates, talking heads going wild, lobbyists ramping up, etc etc. The Brits said they'd do it, they're doing it right now.
Nigeria seizes second arms shipment We're not sure what is going on here. In October Nigeria seized an arms shipment that arrived from Iran. In April 2011 Nigeria is to hold elections, and as readers know, there has been a lot of trouble between Muslims and Christians in the country. Its a guess, but a reasonable one, that the weapons were slated for the Muslims.
On November 24 Nigeria seized nine army trucks loaded with arms at the Port of Lagos.
This is progress? Space-X, a private space company found by Elon Musk who founded PayPal, will on December 7 launch a Falcon 9 rocket with a unmanned capsule that will be returned to earth. This is a precursor to a program that will take crews and cargo to the Space Station.
So this is terribly sweet and all that, but has Editor missed something? Editor is famous for not knowing what day it is - you can see this in the occasional mess-up of daily updates. Sometimes he's confused as to what month it is. But is Elon Musk trying to tell Editor this is not 2010, but 1960? Seems to us its fifty years since Mercury testing began, though it was in 1962 John Glenn made his three-orbit flight.
Talk about reinventing the wheel.
BTW, Wikipedia says the Mercury program cost $3-billion for 12 spacecraft in today's money.
Indian court orders arrest of author who supports Kashmiri secessionists Its not just the Editor whose confused, the Delhi High Court is too. Some weeks ago, Arundhati Roy, a novelist and social crusader, attended a conference with Kashmiri separatists and said India should let Kashmir go. A billion Indians got very upset, including Editor. The Government said there was no justification for a criminal case to be brought against her. A private party appealed to the Delhi High Court. Learned court has now said the government is wrong and ordered her arrest.
Now look people, India is a democracy. You can call for secession any time, and there's plenty of Kashmiris who do on a regular basis. But speech is not sedition. India is not Pakistan, where calling for an independent Kashmir is illegal. If Ms. Roy has been doing more than just speaking secession, by all means arrest her and throw away the key. Editor gets a colossal headache each time Ms. Roy says something. At the same time, she has a right to her views, however whacky they may be.
May we request the Delhi High Court to rescind its order in this matter - unless there is more to this than has been revealed in the press and Ms. Roy has been up to hanky panky.

November 27, 2010

What's happened to Ireland? Paul Krugman, the American economist, writing in the New York Times explains it in easy-to-understand terms. Ireland experienced a genuine economic miracle in the 1980s and 1990s. Then banks and real estate speculators teamed up with the politicians to create a massive property bubble: the Euro permitted Ireland to borrow money cheaply. When the asset bubble burst, instead of letting the banks take their losses, the Government of Ireland guaranteed their debts. In effect, private debt became public debt, with the public getting nothing for it except a loss of confidence in the Irish economy. From there on we get to the bailouts and such, all of which come with strict deficit reduction/take increase terms. So the Irish are now in a downward spiral, because the deficit reduction and tax increases are putting enormous downward pressure on the economy, which make holders of Irish debt more nervous, which raises the interest rate of the debt, which pushes Ireland down further etc.
Krugman says by contrast Iceland, which was in worse economic shape at the height of its crisis, let the banks fail. Plus, Iceland has its own currency, so it let the krona depreciate, boosting exports. So Iceland is clawing its way out of the mess, Ireland is collapsing.
Agreed, America is not Ireland. But the bailout of American banks and financial institutions was a travesty of economics, and it shows ours is not a country of free enterprise, but a joint monopoly of big corporations and big government, cooperating to enrich special interests. In a true free enterprise system, such as some Republicans say they want, there would have been no government bailout for the rich, and further, there would be no government subsidies to benefit special interests, be they agriculture, oil, education, or the real estate market (the last via mortgages).
Some reformers have said the subsidies should stop, and government bail outs are immoral (or illegal). It just may be to America's long-term interest to heed the reformers, return to a true free enterprise system, and take the hit once and for all, instead of digging ourselves into a bigger hole which each passing year, where the result will be the same but of greater magnitude, i.e., national bankruptcy.
For Krugman's article, go to http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/26/opinion/26krugman.html?src=me&ref=general
Give it a rest, people So it turns out that a Taliban leader British MI6 brought to a peace conference in Afghanistan was an imposter, just an ordinary Afghan shopkeeper living in Pakistan. So everyone seems to have something to say about this mistake. May we suggest that people simply accept it was a mistake and move on? Or are we going the tradition started in America of endless analysis, finger-pointing, condemnations, inquiries, and would-have, could-have, should-have?
BBC says the shopkeeper vanished after being paid hundreds of thousands of dollars. This, of course, is going to get the British government good and mad, and that's fine. Let the British deal with it and let's just have a good laugh. For the story and the recriminations, visit http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-11845217
Second batch of two Indian mountain divisions under raising The first batch of two was for the Northeast; the second division will complete raising in March 2011. The next batch of two is for Ladakh, and we thought they would be raised in 2012-2014, but but it seems raising is already under way, because the divisions have been assigned numbers. We will be unable to give numbers until Mandeep Singh Bajwa, or South Asia correspondent, confirms and says its okay.
We're wondering if Beijing realizes how unnecessary and how stupid its provocations and efforts to intimidate India have been. Previously, India had a true offensive capability against China only in the Sikkim/West Bhutan area. But now India is building a major offensive capability for Ladakh, for Middle Arunachal, and for the extreme Northeast. India is to also add an independent armored brigade and independent infantry brigade to its forces in Ladakh, with the result that from two brigades its capability will increase four-fold.
And these four divisions are only the start. The Indian Army has asked for seven more divisions, of which three are likely to be approved soon, the rest will probably wait till the next round of Chinese provocations.
How has any of this helped China? For years it has gotten by with just two brigades and frontier troops in Tibet; now it will have to respond with a major counter buildup - which of course the Indians have foreseen, which is why the Army has asked for another seven divisions, which will require China to do yet another buildup. The Chinese ego has been boosted by picking on India, but all that China has succeeded in doing is making its position in Tibet very much more difficult.
(India had a total of 11 divisions - one infantry and ten mountain - for deployment against China prior to 1971. This came down to 9 divisions by the 1990s. By 2012-13 it will be up to 12.

November 26, 2010

Korea: The Last Word Here is a quote from an ROK professor that sums up the entire current imbroglio: "North Korea has nothing to lose, while we have everything to lose,” said Kang Won-taek, a professor of politics at Seoul National University. “Lee Myung-bak (the ROK leader) has no choice but to soften his tone to keep this country peaceful. It is not an appealing choice, but it is the only realistic choice.” http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/26/world/asia/26korea.html?_r=1&hp
There really is nothing much left to say about the subject, except we wish the US would just get out of the place and start tending to the American people's business instead of everyone else's business. Actually, maybe the US should keep out of the American people's business too.
Meanwhile, the ROK defense minister has resigned. The President says the island that was attacked will see its garrison doubled, and there is to be a new look at how much artillery ROK needs.
DPRK promises retaliation for ROK's provocations and China criticizes US-ROK naval exercises.
BTW, nothing spectacular about USS George Washington sailing for Korean waters: its home ported at Yokosuka, Japan, a stone throw away.
Trouble in Rio favelas Much like Bombay, a large proportion of Rio's inhabitants live in slums called favelas, about 2-million people. Unlike Bombay, the favelas till now have been lightly policed and so have become home to gangs, particularly drug gangs. To prepare for the 2014 World Cup (soccer?) and the 2016 Olympics, Rio authorities have started on a drive to clear criminals out of the favelas. Yesterday and today fighting broke out between drug dealers and the Rio police, killing 30, mainly drug dealers says BBC, but also some civilians. The police claim to be in control of the main drug-dealer favela.
Mrs. Palin Okay, so Mrs. Sarah Palin said "We must stand with our North Korean allies". Expect the usual ridicule, cries of outrage, "this woman wants to be US president?" and so on.
Mrs. Palin's critics should understand that as far as men are concerned, an attractive woman can say whatever she wants, sense or nonsense, and we males will "listen" to it most attentively. An attractive woman can do now wrong. That's nature, the birds and the bees, and so on and so forth. There is no question of fair or unfair, that's just the way men are. Give the Editor the vote and he will show you who he will vote for, Mrs. Palin or Mr. Obama. (Hint: He will not vote for the one with the Big Ears.)
(We put "listen" in Austin Powers quotes because as everyone knows, men do not listen to attractive women with their ears.)

November 25, 2010

US has lost it Every editorial we read on DPRK, and every talk show we tune into it, says the same thing: how do we engage DPRK and address its legitimate concerns without compromising our objectives. To us this shows that the United States has gone Looney Tunes. Is not 14 years of negotiating, coming to agreements, and then having DPRK promptly break the agreements enough time for the US to understand its policy of engaging DPRK has failed?
If one judges from other US actions such as Afghanistan, where we still plan for victory after nine years of getting nowhere, apparently 14 years is not enough to learn anything.
No one is addressing the question: if someone double-crosses you - say - three times in a row, why are we reverting to more negotiations? What does it take for Americans to acknowledge failure, wipe the slate clean, and try something else?
We've frequently quoted the old saw: "Doing the same thing every time and expecting different results is psychotic." The foreign policy establishment of this country is not just dysfunctional, it is now certifiably in need of institutionalization.
Contrary to what our readers may think, Orbat.com is not in favoring of attacking DPRK. We've said IF the US feels the DPRK N-program is a threat, eliminate it by force, since negotiations have not worked. Personally, we believe the N-program is a Potemkin Village intended to extort money from the US. Our solution is simply to leave DPRK alone. Don't talk, don't argue, don't threaten, don't even explain.
How is it our problem if DPRK keeps escalating its bad behavior to extort concessions from us? What obligation are we under to pander to this wretched failed state that cannot even feed itself, and which would lose 90% of its population overnight if it let its people go? Since when do we pay people to stop them from behaving even more badly than they are already behaving? Paying blackmail is not a policy.
The entire point of strategy is never, ever, to play the game your adversary wants. If you play his game, you have already lost. This we know from Strategy 001 - not even from Strategy 101. You have to make him play your game.
In this case, the first step is to opt out of the losing game, not to double the ante. The second step is to let ROK decide how to deal with DPRK aggression. After all, they're the ones most directly affected. The third step, if the aggression continues, is to go to the UN - as America so successfully did for Gulf One, build an international consensus to act, and then act. This puts the onus on DPRK, whereas right now each time the country has a tantrum we are running around trying to find a bigger binky to stick in its fat mouth.
We also need to ask: why are we sticking our nose in the Korean Peninsula in the first place? ROK has a GDP thirty times that of DPRK and twice the population. Why are we holding ROK's hand? Its not ROK needs to grow up. America needs to grow up.
Virginia Court convicts Somali pirates of firing on a US Navy frigate in an attempt to hijack it. The mandatory sentence is life. Remains to be seen if this will deter anyone; we have our doubts. Meanwhile, a piracy trial is underway in Hamburg. Conversely, regional nations like Kenya and Seychelles don't want to try pirates.
Details from http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/24/somali-pirates-convicted-in-virginia/?hp The lesson from the Virginia case is that pirates should stay sober when doing their work. Mind you, you have to be pretty far gone to mistake a US Navy frigate for a merchant ship.
Wikileaks plans new release this time of an expected 3-million documents. Meanwhile, a Swedish appeals court has reject an appeal by the Wikileaks founder against the arrest warrant that is active against him. His lawyers say they will appeal to the Supreme Court.
We are not terribly familiar with Swedish law, but in general no court likes to quash an arrest warrant for a crime when the wanted person is refusing to make himself available for questioning. Had the gentleman made himself available, he could have made his case to the prosecutor; if she were satisfied, there would be no arrest. But absconding to avoid questioning is not something that gladdens the heart of an appeals court.
We do know that in Sweden there is no bail, and the prosecutor is required to investigate and present all evidence for and against the accused. This, in our opinion, makes it even harder for an accused to say: "I should not be detained for questioning".
A brief sketch of the police, prosecutorial, and judicial system in Sweden is available at http://www.regeringen.se/content/1/c4/33/41/0feab306.pdf More information is available at http://www.abika.com/Reports/Sweden_Criminal_or_Civil_Court_Records_copy%281%29.htm This second source says that all alleged offenders must stand trial, and confessions are never binding.

November 24, 2010

DPRK gets beaten with harsh words So for no reason at all, having learned everything from the sinking of an ROK corvette earlier this year, the DPRK fire 100 artillery shells at an ROK base on an island near the maritime boundary. Two ROK marines were killed, and 16 persons wounded including three civilians.
An understandably livid ROK Government first said it would massively retaliate. Big run on the world's toilets, with US urging "restraint" on both sides, Chinese chidingly saying ROK and DPRK need to do more for peace, UN condemning the north and so on and so forth.
In a matter of hours ROK changed its position, saying it would respond with missiles if something like this incident happened again.
Now, people, are we supposed to take ROK seriously? It didn't retaliate for the loss of its torpedoed corvette, within hours it has backed off on the shelling incident. who will be suspired if DPRK now stages yet another incident? Incidentally, the DPRK lot seem to be high on ADHD and low on impulse control. In Editor's day as a student if you had ADHD/low impulse control, as he did, your teacher whacked your rear end till you stopped disrupting the class. Modern pedagogy says you shouldn't do that, because it doesn't help the child learn. But see, the old time teachers didn't care if the child learned. They wanted him simply to cease from disturbing the rest of the class's learning. Now days we do the "positive reinforcement" thing. The result is chaos in the classroom.
If you really want DPRK to learn, give it a few serious whacks. If you think you are going to talk them to death, please to remember this strategy does not work.
President Obama is "outraged" by the DPRK action Mr. Prez, you aren't the only one outraged. We're outraged that you're outraged. We are double outraged, so there. Why? Because all over again its that "Talk, talk, you worry me to death" - before your time, Mr. Prez, but you get the drift. Does anyone care we are double outraged? Obviously not. Does anyone care Mr. Prez is outraged? Even less than they care about Editor being outraged. Mr. Prez, the country is facing very serious challenges. May we request you stop expressing a knee jerk reaction to everything that happens in the world and focus on essentials? Neither you, or ROK, are going to as much wriggle your left little toe at DPRK. Please don't emphasize how pathetic US has become by expressing outrage. Just keep quiet, do not draw attention to the patheticity of the country. We'll all be better off.
India developing previously undisclosed missiles reader Vikhr Kradiac tells us via email. The national newsmagazine India Today says in an article by Sandeep Unnithan. India is currently conducting underwater ejection trials, but has had sea launched ballistic missiles under development since 2004. The 3500-km range SLBN K4 is under development, as is the K15 750-km SLBM. A 5000-km version is planned. Nuclear submarines of the Arihant class will carry 4 K4s or 12 K15s.
Meanwhile, India also has developed a 200-km air launched cruise missile. Its a bit of a monster at 2-tons, but of course the Su-30 can handily carry it. Other ALCMs with ranges out to 600-km are under development.
From Ramnagesh Iyer on bombing DPRK To wit, for someone of your experience and maturity, you seem fairly low on patience!

§ Even a right-winger will find it a stretch to equate DPRK with terrorists. If bombing the enemy could solve all the world’s problems, it would have been done long ago. We wouldn't have too many ‘bad’ guys around. Indeed, we have seen the quagmires caused by bombing and invasion – Indo China, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, the list is endless. In fact, if the US had shown patience and bargained hard with Taliban in 2001 (for e.g. agreeing to try bin Laden in a neutral country), it may have achieved its goals of weakening al Qaeda with far less money, energy, lives and collateral damage.

§ Coming specifically to DPRK, its pretty clear that it is a larger game being played between China and the US. Both Koreas are but pawns in this game. I suspect both China and the US are using these pawns in their own backroom bargaining on several issues ranging from currency depreciation to human rights to Senkaku to Taiwan. So with Kim Jon Il throws a tantrum, its probably China trying to extract a concession. When the US talking of N-arming ROK, it's the reverse.

§ In summary, I suspect there is far more here than what meets the eye and is reported in the press. Trying to bomb DPRK out of existence is going to complicate matters without solving anything.

§ Editor's response when Mr. Iyer spoke of "someone of your maturity" Editor had to look around to see to whom Mr. Iyer might be referring! Experience yes, maturity no. Personally we don't believe DPRK has a bomb. So again personally, we'd rather see the US stop wasting its time in trying to modify DPRK's behavior. Americans are great ones for behavior modification and its near impossible for them to admit that in many cases that is just not possible. US has been bribing DPRK for 14 years; a;; that happens is when DPRK wants more money, it again ups the ante.

§ So, for example, DPRK having carefully shown its centrifuges to the Americans, says its willing to talk about disposal of its plutonium reactor's fuel rods in a third country, but the centrifuges are another matter altogether. Thus: give us money for getting rid of some of the fuel rods - later we'll tell you we actually have twice as many and you'll have to pay separately for that, and tell what you are going to give us for stopping the centrifuges.

§ This whole blackmail thing is getting old and boring. if US feels so strongly about DPRK's N-weapons plans, destroy its N-weapons infrastructure. If in retaliation DPRK crosses the 38th Parallel, destroy DPRK. Editor's preferred option is for US to simply turn its back on DPRK. don't even give them a reason we are doing this. Say nothing. Just break off relations and let the north do what it will.

§ We completely agree with Mr. Iyer the US should have negotiated Osama's arrest. The US solution to the initial rejection by the Taliban of its request was to go to war. For heaven's sakes, America! We of all people should know everyone has their price and since you're dealing with the allegedly noble Pathan, Kabul's first reaction was simply to set the stage for more serious negotiation. This lot will sell their mother if the price is right. In private correspondence, Mr. Bill Roggio of Long War Journal has opined he doubts if negotiation would have worked. Perhaps, but it was worth trying in preference to spending half-a-trillion dollars to accomplish precisely what? The terms under which the US is to withdraw?

§ But this approach wont work with DPRK because Pyongyang is now in the habit of extorting concessions from the US.

November 23, 2010

For every victimizer you need a victim Ying and Yan, that sort of thing. In this case DPRK is the victimizer, US is the willing victim. Every time DPRK needs more money, it acts up on its pseudo N-weapons program and the US comes rushing with talks and money. Now DPRK has shown US scientists its alleged uranium enrichment centrifuges, and US SecDef Robert Gates has already prepared the US for another payout by saying this cascade could build several N-weapons a year.
We have a question for the US. Has paying off DPRK ended its quest for N-weapons? The answer is no. Can DPRK actually make N-weapons? If US Government says yes, then the answer is simple. Since talks and bribes have not worked, blow up the DPRK program and be done with it. If no, forget the whole thing and ignore DPRK.
Oh, the US will say, we can't destroy their N-program because they'll cross the DMZ. Let us suppose this really is the case. Isn't it better to have them cross the DMZ and be destroyed for good than to have a DPRK with N-weapons that they will use every three months to blackmail you? Oh, the US will say, that's why negotiations and bribes are better.
They might be, if only they can be shown to work. How many more years do we have to negotiate/pay before US Government honestly admits to its citizens that paying off gangsters has led only to more demands for cash. Does the US negotiate with terrorists and criminals? It does not. So let's stop now.
And lets make clear to DPRK that if they cross the DMZ, the US is not going to participate in a new Korean War. Time for the US to remind DPRK that Washington has never renounced the first use of N-weapons.
BTW, lets not play pathetic games like planting the question: "Is the US going to return tactical N-weapons to South Korea?" and then saying "no decision has been taken". You can't suddenly pose a hypothetical threat to a gangster to whom you have been paying money and expect to intimidate him. If you are tired of paying money only to see him demand more, step one is to stop paying and refuse to talk; step two is to clobber him once and for all.
Meanwhile US has (a) called on China to stop DPRK's new centrifuge program; and (b) said 6-party talks wont resume as long as DPRK continues with its program. Ooooh, the US is so tough! At least in the way that whipped cream is tough.
And speaking of blackmail: may we introduce Islamabad? Pakistan has told the US it will not launch an offensive in North Waziristan because US has promised to back India for a UN Security Council seat.
Now, to begin with Pakistan has no intention of launching a new front in North Waziristan for the simple reason it is not in Pakistan's interest. Next, Pakistan also knows that India cannot get a seat on the UNSC without China's cooperation, and that cooperation is as likely as a snowball rolling untouched through the Hot Place Downstairs.
So all Pakistan has done is make another excuse appear to justify its inaction, when neither was it going to attack the Taliban in North Wazoo nor is India going to get a seat in the UNSC.
This should be good for another couple of billion dollars worth of grift, we estimate. (Note for young people: grifter is an American word meaning someone who swindles or defrauds you, and grift is a con game or swindle. Editor doesnt think the word is seen much these days.)
Original story in http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/pakistan/8151875/Pakistan-hits-back-at-American-support-for-India-by-stopping-al-Qaeda-offensive.html

November 22, 2010

Two Chinese fishery protection ships off Senkaku Islands on Saturday, says Asahi Shimbun of Japan. The Japanese coast guard warned them not to enter Japanese territorial waters. This is the first time since the September 7, 2010 crisis that Chinese ships have been in the area. They remained in international waters.
China restarts rare earth export to Japan says New York Times, but some Japanese companies are reporting problems. Prices for certain rare earths went up 10X during the Chinese embargo. But no matter how you look at it, until US rare earth production comes back on line, the supply is going to be limited because (a) Chinese domestic demand is strong; and (b) the Chinese feel since they are the main producers in the work, they should set the price.
China is facing an unprecedented smuggling of rare earths overseas because of the price differential. And, of course, the Chinese being the Chinese, one of their main production complexes has contaminated the area around. US shut down its production for environmental reasons, but the main US company is ready to bring production back on line after meeting environmental regulations and figuring out how to produce the procuts for half Chinese costs.
The question of why US is using UAVs only in a limited area of Pakistan is now answered. Apparently Pakistan has given permission for the one area in Waziristan and has refused US requests to expands operations to the Quetta area
Pakistan Air Force Modernization Pakistan has asked the US for another batch of F-16s, this time 14. This comes on top of 18 F-16C/D (12 delivered, the rest next month), and 46 F-16A/B (40 were delivered originally, 1983-1987; some were lost - at one time the inventory was down to 34, then after 9/11 more A/Bs were delivered bringing the total to 46). As far as we know 4 F-16 C/Ds remain on option. The A/Bs are to to be rebuilt under the Mid Life Update program at a cost of about $25-million per aircraft, but this may include spares and ordnance. The total by 2012 should be around 78, adequate for 4 squadrons. MLU includes AIM-120 air-to-air missiles.
Pakistan plans to acquire a total of 250 F-17 Thunder aircraft. This aircraft is built jointly with China and may be considered equal to an F-16. Two squadrons of J10 (FC-20 in PAF service) are supposed to be on order. This should give Pakistan 18 squadrons of modern aircraft. Pakistan needs about half as many aircraft as India because the latter has to provide for two fronts whereas Pakistan has to provide for only one.

November 21, 2010

The Stuxnet Virus Occurred to us we should probably comment on what the virus does. We have no clue who dunnit and for some reason,we are not particularly interested. We did get a mite annoyed when a US expert at some point mentioned India as among the countries capable of developing the virus because (a) when you point a finger there's three more pointing back at you; (b) just because India is an outsourcing power doesn't mean its a virus producing power; and (c) why on earth blame India, which has no problems with Iran?
Anyway, what the virus does is mess up the speed controls of Iranian centrifuges. We're unsure why they need messing up because they don't work well enough to produce weapons grade uranium, and never did. That's one reason since 1985 Editor has been saying Pakistanis will not get N-weapons until they produce plutonium, because their U235 program has never worked properly (sorry India, CIA, Pakistan and so on, we feel your pain at being dissed, but its time to get real). Pakistan now does have sources of plutonium.
Centrifuges spin at thousands of rotations per minutes. Centrifuge cascades have to be kept spinning consistently for months and years on end, because variations of speed in individual cascades mess up enrichment. If, as has been suggested, Stuxnet is randomly speeding up and slowing down Iranian centrifuges, what you get is not so much as a Holy Mess for your U235 output, but you get crashing centrifuges which is a Really Big Disaster. This destroys cascades, kind of a technological Hasta La Vista Baby, if you get what we mean.
So in all likelihood Stuxnet is about throwing another spanner in the works. If you can get this virus in without risking anyone's safety, why not be safe instead of sorry. The whole thing is very clever. Congratulations to whoever came up with the concept.
Here's a New York Times article that's reasonably knowledgeable about the virus. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/19/world/middleeast/19stuxnet.html?scp=2&sq=Stuxnet&st=cse
An American thinking about the EU is an unusual thing. Luxembourg sends us an article by John Hinderaker of the blog Powerline ( http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2010/11/027718.php ) where he defends his viewpoint that while economically the EU is good, politically it is not, because "The European Union is largely a coup by Europe's governing class to take power from that continent's people and put it in the hands of its elites. Moreover, they are trying to take the continent in a more leftward direction than its citizens would prefer."
Hmmm. Our reaction to our good buddy old pal John (he doesn't know us from 1.4-billion other South Asians, so this is ironic as when the Americans say "My good man") was two-fold. First, John, why on earth are you wasting energy on what the Euros want to do or not do? They've always been to the left in comparison to the Americans, so what is new in this? Second, are we being impolitic in pointing out that many Americans level the same charge at today's America as John is leveling at the Euros? The bit about the elites taking power from the people and concentrating it in the elite's hands? The leftism? The corruption, bureaucracy, the inefficiency?
And let's be fair: when it comes to corrupt elites, do the Euros have anything on us in America? Not a thing, people, not a thing. As always we stand tall and first. Its called American exceptionalism.
BTW, Powerline is against the new START deal with the Russians for several reasons about which we are agnostic - monitoring, safeguards etc. But we are completely with Powerline on ABM defenses: anything that compromises these is not just bad, its treason. The duty of a government - and the country's elite - is to protect the people against external attack. Between 1970 and 2000, the US sold its people down the river when it came to nuclear annihilation. The theory of Mutual Assured Destruction was: neither of us should take any measures to protect against the other's nuclear weapons because that will destabilize the nuclear balance. we must deliberately leave ourselves open to the enemy's nuclear weapons so that he does not start believing that his attack capability is being degraded by our nuclear defenses.
Excuse me? Has anyone ever come up with such a psychotic, dysfunctional excuse for a defense policy? "I now destroy my shield so that you can strike me with your sword, and you destroy your shield so I can strike you with my sword" - this is a policy? Who gained? It wasn't the US, it was the Soviets. Talk about elites seizing power! The American elite has been doing that since 1940.
On pressuring Israel to make "peace" with the Palestinians Some in a letter to the Editor of the Washington Post had what we think is a pretty astute observation, on which we are putting our own spin. If peace with the Palestinians is in the Israeli interest, why does the US have to cajole, bribe, threaten Israel decade after decade? Are the Israelis Looney Tuners that they cannot see what's in their best interest? Are Americans so exceptional that they know better than the Israelis what is good for them?
Talk about paternalism/maternalism EU style! How about this totally radical approach to Israel: the Israelis know perfectly well what is in their interest or not, and how about we leave them to do their thing instead of telling them to do our thing?
Sure, the Israeli thing hurts US interests. But then lets make a cost-benefit analysis, and if it costs us more than we benefit from the alliance, let it go. Further, does Washington really believe that anything short of the annihilation of Israel from the global map will satisfy the Arabs? So if we say we care for Israel, why are we forcing a peace on it that it doesn't want? Is there any logic whatsoever to US foreign policy?
Jonathan Pollard In yesterday's op-ed page of the Washington Post, Jonathan Pollard's father pleaded for his son's release. The main argument was that Pollard gave information to an ally, Israel, but has been treated far worse than spies who gave information to America's enemies. The father feels then defense secretary's anti-Semitism had much to do with the harsh sentence that the son received.
First let the Editor say as a parent, he feels for the father. Editor can imagine nothing more devastating than having one of his sons locked away for life. Editor would plead in every possible forum for leniency for his child. That is the duty of every father, no matter what crime his child has committed.
That said, is the matter of Mr. Pollard the Younger a simple affair of helping an ally, Israel, and anti-Semitism? In the last 23 years, scores of highest ranking officials have reviewed the case and have rejected leniency. Are they all anti-Semitic? The father says his son acted to help an ally. Fair enough. Then why did Mr. Pollard the Younger regularly take money from Israel? And what does the father have to say about the US Government's statements that the son sold, or tried to sell, classified information to Australia, Pakistan, and South Africa? Even worse, what about the US Government's case that Mr. Pollard the Younger stole classified documents on China to help the business interests of his wife and of two friends?
Yet further, what steps did our "ally" Israel take to return documents that the US has said may have numbered as one million?
Last, what about the judge refusing to accept the plea deal worked out between Mr. Pollard the Younger and US investigators because the judge believed Mr. Pollard had already broken the deal?
Please understand that the Editor has no answer to these questions. He is not claiming to be in the know. Perhaps Mr. Pollard the Younger has reasonable explanations. We are saying only there is a lot more than meets the eye when Mr. Pollard the Younger is described by his father merely as a patriotic Israeli-American concerned about Israel's security.
At the time of the offence, the son was a US citizen - not a dual national. Israel gave him citizenship years later. If the Pollard family can claim that espionage to help Israel by a person of the Jewish faith who is not an Israeli qualifies for a reduced sentence, what would the family say if an American of the Islamic faith was caught spying for Saudi Arabia or Egypt, and the person asked for a reduced sentence on grounds he was helping an ally?
The Editor is not a US citizen. But suppose tomorrow he somehow obtained US citizenship, and obtained work with the CIA, or the Pentagon, or the NSA. (Used to be you had to be a US citizen for a minimum of ten years before you could get higher security clearances. We don't know what the rule is today. This is just an aside to say even if the Editor got US citizenship, he'd be closing in on age 80 before he could obtain high security clearance. So this is just a case of us channeling Glen Beck - "I'm just saying".) Now suppose that he decides to sell classified information to America's allies such as India. Suppose he gets caught and sent to jail for the rest of his days. The one thing he would absolutely forbid his children to do is to petition for leniency. To do so would to show disrespect to every member of his family who is a loyal American citizen (everyone but him is, BTW). It would be show disrespect to America, the country that took him in. It would be disrespectful to every Indian origin person who is now a loyal American.
Sometimes life has no do-overs. Sometimes you have to just say: "I took a gamble, I lost, and that's it."
BTW, may we gently suggest to Mr. Pollard's father that the Israelis granting Mr. Pollard citizenship while he in jail for spying is not really the kind of thing that will get a parole board or a US president to feel kindly?

November 20, 2010

Marines to get a tank company in Afghanistan For a while Editor hasn't had anything to be particularly curmudgeonly about, so thank you, US for sending a tank company to Afghanistan. First, the press describes the tanks as "heavily armored". Can someone tell our little darlings the MSM that by definition a tank is heavily armored? Or will this tiny bit of knowledge give them severe headaches?
Second, a US official is quoted as saying the tanks are going to shock and awe the Taliban. Great. Now please explain why its taken you nine years to figure this out, particularly as the Canadians and Danes for some time have been using their Leopards in Afghanistan? And can US explain why it's just one company? Doesn't the Taliban need to be shocked and awed in force? Or maybe they don't teach our young soldiers about force any more?
Read Aviation Week for the Canadian experience with armor in Afghanistan.
This reminds us about Vietnam all over again. Though the French had left studies saying tanks could be used in most of South Vietnam, the US for years refused to send tanks because, it said, that the country was untankable. Well, apparently the Marines among others insisted on taking their tanks with them, and then the US Army saw the opportunities.
So what US has now brilliantly shown us, not only does it not read its own history, it doesn't read the history of the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan either. The Soviets used tanks widely during their ten year war.
Another thing the US doesn't seem to have learned is that, hello, in mountain terrain you are supposed to control the peaks. Apparently US is still building fortified camps in valleys which are overlooked by the Taliban. Maybe if the US didn't load its troops with 100-120 pounds of gear people might be more willing to build camps on the peaks. Sure its easier to build roads into valleys. But no one ever said mountain warfare is easy. As to getting supplies to outposts on the peaks: well, there's helicopters (remember those), and US might want to read its own wartime history of the Italian campaign 1944-45. The 10th Mountain Division used those peculiar vehicles that have four articulated legs and can carry 120-lbs without tiring. These vehicles are really odd, because for fuel they use fodder, they have mean eyes, and their sensor system includes two ears. To keep flies away, these vehicles have an articulated extension over their rear ends, and we believe this extension is called a tail. Anyone remember these vehicles? Before tractors, most American farms used the vehicles to plough the land. Jeez.
So, this anti-piracy thing is not working too well Los Angeles Times reports that Somali pirates are holding hostages for twice as long and getting a lot more money. Hostages can expect to be detained for 100 days, twice as much as in 2008 and 2009, and ransoms have gone from $1-million plus per ship to a high of ten times that.
That the world is completely unable to deal with this menace shows how ineffectual nations have become. Its not that the world is not actively combating pirates. In most case, however, they are unwilling to take legal action, or if they do, it is will all the legal protections of accused in their own countries. So few convictions are being obtained. Most pirates are set free. Costs them $10,000+ to get another boat and guns to make another raid. With payoffs ranging from 100 to 1 and 1000 to 1, what have pirates got to lose?
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/africa/sns-ap-piracy,0,6533442.story
Then when the pirates get their payday, the Somali al-Shabab lands up for their share. So here the world is busy funding the very same terrorists its trying to fight.
In one case underway in the US right now the defense is arguing that the pirates did not actually board the target ship so they haven't committed piracy. Well, yes, they didn't board but that's because they were stopped. So what do we know? Let them board? At which the defense will say well you haven't proved that their intent after boarding was to hijack the ship.
Chinese UAVs The Chinese recently displayed 25 different types of UAVs at an air show in China. For brief details, read http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703374304575622350604500556.html?mod=WSJ_hp_mostpop_read
New York Times Online now also requires registration First was Times London, on which we relied a great deal for different perspectives on stories. Now New York Times wants one to register, though it's still free after you register. This is all fine and dandy, but each time one registers one has to remember a different log in and password, and its not always a good idea to have the site remember these mdetails.

November 19, 2010

Wikileaks founder indicted for rape A brief background. The gentleman is an Australian citizen, but came to Sweden seeking residency because the country has strong protections for journalists and there was no chance he'd get into trouble for publishing classified documents.
While in Sweden, two women accused him of rape. He said the sex was consensual, and the prosecutor overruled a subordinate prosecutor who had issued a warrant for his arrest. He left Sweden.
We aren't at all interested in what this gentleman's sexual perversions or preferences are. That has no relevance to his leaking of documents to enlighten the world about the "truth" of the US involvement in the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars.
But when darn nearly every blog we look it, MSM or not, has people accusing Sweden of giving into US pressure and falsely framing the gentleman for rape, we get extremely annoyed, both on behalf of the Swedish and the US Governments.
It is beyond absurd to allege that the Swedes would succumb to US pressure to launch false cases against the man because allegedly he is antiwar. He choose to seek residency in Sweden because he knew full well that Sweden is one country that will NOT give into US pressure. The Swedes are socially liberal to a fault, and they are no fans of American interventionism or the GWOT. To think that they will arrest and hand over someone accused by the US of antiwar activity is plain ridiculous.
Next, why does the US need to pressure anyone to make false charges against the gentleman when it can make perfectly legal charges in a US court for possession of classified documents? The US can make those charges and ask for an international arrest warrant. Many countries may not cooperate, but many will.
With that out of the way, here is what happened. The gentleman had sex with two Swedish women at different times. Both encounters began as consensual. But, it is said that when the ladies realized he was not using protection, they asked him to cease and desist. He refused and continued.
At this point our readers in socially conservative countries may wonder where is the crime. They may say "the ladies agreed to the activity, how is it a crime if in the middle they change their minds and he refuses to stop?"
To answer that, Editor has to wander far from the realms of the GWOT to a micro-lecture on Sweden. If you are familiar with that country, none of this will be news to you. The Swedes are sexually liberated (if you a liberal) or sexually promiscuous (if you are a conservative). Be that as it may, a consequence of their approach to sex is very strong protections for women. It doesn't matter if an encounter is consensual, if the lady asks you to stop at any point, you have to stop. The consent has been withdrawn, if you don't stop, you are guilty of rape.
You don't have to be a feminist to appreciate the validity of this point of view. If you are a gentleman, which the Wikileaks gentleman is apparently not, you know that an encounter has to stop if the lady asks you to stop. There is nothing very complicated about this, you don't need to give Stephen Bois or whoever to get the US Supreme Court to clarify.
Now, here's the other complication which Editor is sure you have long ago thought of on your own. The ladies are said to have asked him to use protection. In this age of rampant STDs and worse, of AIDS, do they not have a right to ask that of any partner?
All we are saying is, this gentleman has committed a crime against Swedish law. Why are people insulting the Swedes for enforcing their law? Just because some countries don't take crimes against women seriously doesn't mean we should disparage the Swedes. And please, the US has nothing to do with this.
What we should focus on is: where is the "truth" that this gentleman so self-righteously wants to reveal to the world? Absolutely nothing in the documents he released is news. The truth is, he's just another witless anti-American, something a great many people are because they think its cool. He is not just highly uncool, that he is in this mess in Sweden when all he needed was to spend a couple of dollars on condoms shows, to the Editor at least, that's he's a little light in the upper story. Seven short of a six-pack as the saying goes.
Sweden is said to be prepared to ask Interpol to bring this gentleman. Next we'll be hearing US pressured Interpol. Rubbish.
PS: Telegraph of UK says the gentleman is in Britain. He is prepared to meet Swedish authorities, in the Swedish Embassy (??? How does this make sense?) or at Scotland Yard (this makes even less sense - the British are not parties to this alleged crime, if an international warrant is issued they are obliged to comply without making anything else their business). The gentleman's lawyer says he is not in hiding, but that "The difficulty is that when Julian moves from country to country it takes a significant amount of planning. That is not to say that we don't want to meet the prosecutors." Huh? What planning does it take to buy a ticket for Sweden? The lawyer has offered telephone and/or video conferencing. Should we be surprised that the Swedish authorities have shown no interest? Its hard to believe someone has such a huge ego that when accused of a crime he tries to set the conditions under which he will meet with prosecutors who want to question him.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/sweden/8143922/Wikileaks-founder-Julian-Assange-hiding-in-Britain-as-Swedes-poised-to-issue-arrest-warrant.html
Other bad things the CIA has done Made sure the Editor grew up so short that most tall people looking around the room wondering where the voices are coming from. Forced the Editor's weight from 123-lbs when he was 16 to 195-lbs fifty years later. Damaged the Editor's eyes so that from 20/20 he is now one step from being legally blind. Engaged in a devious plot to make Editor go bald. Made sure the Editor never became the world's first dollar trillionaire (Editor has hard proof of this). Caused the Editor to grow old. Most serious: Warned women the world over not to go on a date with the Editor because he such a pervert he will want actually to TALK to them. We are now two days away from Saturday, and the CIA is already chortling because they've sabotaged his chances for a date with a lady whose name he doesn't know, and has never met. The proof of this will be that the Editor will not meet this lady who doubtless is gasping and panting after him. Somewhere. In some universe. Ooooh, the CIA is so bad. Beat the CIA with a flower. beat it every hour.
Pakistan Army Killed List: Most Peculiar Editor spent some time looking at ~6000-names on the Pakistan Army's killed list, including some who died in accidents and of illness. Most peculiarly, the list gives several division HQs with dates when the HQs did not exist. For example, both 33 and 37 Divisions are listed for 1948, whereas they were raised after the 1965 War (33 Division) and before the 1971 War (37 Division). 26 Mechanized Division is shown as existing in 1971, whereas this is a formation from the 2000s (we don't offhand recall the raising date). 41 Division is shown as existing in 1971, it was raised around 1986 or so (again, we're saying this offhand, we'd have to check exact dates).
From the Indian viewpoint, the list is of interest because Pakistan lists ~450 killed during the 1999 Kargil War, whereas previously Pakistan insisted these were mujahedeen who had nothing to do with the Pakistan Army.
From Editor's viewpoint, it's interesting because the list has hundreds of names of soldiers killed in the 1947-48 War and whose units have been giving as "Jatha". That's a Punjabi word which approximately means a group of warriors. These would be the Pakistan Army regulars that Pakistan insisted were Pakistani civilians who spontaneously rose up to fight for Kashmir.
None of what we've said here is of much interest to younger generations, but for us old timers its odd that Pakistan has finally decided to drop pretences about 1999 and the first Kashmir War. We can't explain the very peculiar dates for several divisions and some corps. What may have happened is all these names, dates, units etc. were in Excel. Then someone accidentally or deliberately deleted parts of columns. That would mess up the alignment of columns.
http://www.pakistanarmy.gov.pk/modules/shuhadascorner/embed_shuhada_list.aspx

November 18, 2010

Gulbuddin Hekmatyar offers Afghan ceasefire provided NATO forces confine themselves to their main bases. Hekmatyar is an Afghan warlord who refused to disarm when US took over Afghanistan. Instead he turned renegade. He is about the least trustworthy and slimiest of Afghan commanders because he unequivocally committed to advancing one set of interests, his own.
This news comes in wake of the Taliban led by Mullah Omar rejecting talks with the Afghan Government and coalition. This branch of the Taliban went as far as to say there were NO talks taking place, and that talk about talks was US disinformation to split the Taliban.
The third Taliban group is the Haqqani faction.
We have to wait and learn more before commenting on Hekmatyar's motivations, but these are likely to involve being first at the peace talks table and to gain NATO's protection against other Taliban groups with whom he wars. In our opinion, better to sup with the Devil using a very short spoon than to countenance any agreement of any sort with Hekmatyar.
What's another $3-billion? We thought by now US would understand its entire Arab-Israeli peace talks strategy is not just a failure, its an oxymoron. But now: US refuses to say die. It wants Israel to freeze settlements for 90 days more to allow peace talks to continue, and is prepared to give Israel $3-billion worth of F-35s as a bribe. That works out to $33-million/day for an utterly futile strategy.
Washington Post says it doesn't object to the $3-billion because Israel needs that money for its security, it's just concerned the US has no viable strategy to succeed in these peace talks. Israel has already ordered a first squadron of 20 F-35s - paid for by American money; this deal, if it goes through, will pay for a second squadron of 20, with the aircraft delivered likely around 2020.
Interesting that WashPo should then want the US to give away another $3-bil of the American taxpayer's money at a time we need to stop spending money to balance the budget. This is the same cavalier attitude the government has had for years - $5-bil here and $10-bil there, what the heck, we're rich enough to afford it. Except this makes as much sense as a couple planning to pay iff its credit cards while making an exception for impulse spending.
BTW, Business week says since 2008 Americans have paid down their personal debt by 8%, approximately $850-billion. It's a start, but only a start. We'd applaud this exception we suspect - as does everyone else - that once the economy starts to grow slightly faster we'll be back to spending money faster than we make it.
Meanwhile the Israeli military is warning if there is no result from the peace talks, the West Bank will fall to Hamas. Since there can be no result from the peace talks, look forward to Hamas's control of all Palestine.
The reason the talks cannot succeed is that the Palestinians want Israelis to stop building settlements in Palestine and Jerusalem, and even to abandon many settlements. Less chance of this happening that of the sun rising in the west tomorrow.
Good news for sci-fi types CERN has managed to trap 38 atoms of anti-matter in a magnetic bottle. Anti-matter can't be allowed to touch matter, because you get annihilation. A spaceship to reach the nearest stars would require ten tons of anti-matter. Right now, it costs perhaps $62-trillion to produce one gram of the stuff, or the equivalent of Gross World Product. But scientists think they can get the cost down to $5-million a gram. That's still not great, you'd need $50,000-trillion for that starship. But its early days. We're already within reach of a cost improvement of 10-million orders of magnitude. Another jump of the same size would give you starship fuel for $50-billion. Thirty, fifty, a hundred years down the road, that could be reasonably economical.
BTW: if you accelerate at 1 g continuously for a year, you get close to light-speed.
Prince Harry and Princess Kate Even if we are the one-billionth blog/media source to offer a comment on the engagement of Prince Harry and to be Princess Kate, we'd like to note that while these two young people have taken eight years to make up their mind, at least they have had time to live together and presumably will enter marriage without illusions. They are thus likely to avoid the tragedy that befell Prince Charles, who was in love with Mrs. Parker Bowles but had to marry Diana Spenser on the orders of his parents because for a future King of England to marry a divorce was out of the question. (Henry VIII's first marriage, to divorcee Catherine of Aragon, does not count as he hadn't founded the Church of England yet and everything was blessed by the Pope. One does not have to be a Marxist to understand back in the day everything to do with the church and the Pope involved Money - with a capital M.)
To the Editor, one of the saddest things about the Charles-Diana marriage was the way Diana vilified Charles when all he wanted was to be left alone. It is only after Diana died that the world was able to see that Charles was a loving and caring father to his children. To Charles, the marriage was one of state - which was the reality of it - and he expected an amiable arrangement where the two would work together in public, and give each other space in private. But Diana was having none of it. She wanted to be fulfilled - in the modern sense of the word - in her marriage, and to her fulfillment meant a husband who emotionally waited on her hand and foot.
Editor is pleased that the old Queen and her consort, who were the parents from heck when it came to their own children, have mellowed enough that Elizabeth, at least, is genuinely welcoming of her granddaughter-in-law to be. No one knows what Philip thinks, but also no one really cares.
Remember the exchange with the media after Chuck and Di got hitched? Di was asked if the young couple were in love, and she said "Of course". Chuck on the other hand said "Whatever love means". Clearly, that was not a good start.
Interviewed by the media after the engagement was announced, Harry and Kate stood very close together, smiled, laughed, and teased each other. Clearly, that is a good start.
Everything about Diana was impossible. Her family pedigree went back about a thousand years, to her family the Windsors were completely low-class lumpen proletariat. She was impossibly good looking. From childhood she set out to marry Charles. She was impossibly young. She was so sensitive that she was impossible to live with. Diana was a fairy-tale princess, and regardless of what they say in the story books, if your husband is kind of a down-home guy happy with a beer, a horse, and a garden trowel, there's going to be trouble. Kate is no fairy-tale princess. She is - dare we say it - a real woman.
We wish the couple good luck. The Editor is old enough to feel happy for them, and their engagement makes a nice change from the general grubbiness of today's world.
BTW, we are reminded that Harry's great-grandmother, Queen Mary, met the future George VI when she was five. It is said that she decided then she was going to marry him. That's very cute.

November 17, 2010

If this is the way the GWOT is being fought, best to forget it and play "Go Fish" Reader Luxembourg sends a URL http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/8135810/Guantanamo-seven-paid-off-to-halt-legal-action-against-Government.html which tells us much about the current state of the GWOT.
Seven UK nationals who were detained at Guantanamo Bay and released, sued the UK Government for being complicit in their torture by the Americans. Note again please: the Brits did not lay a feather on these men. But they are complicit, the suspects argued, because of the "knew, or should have know" doctrine - US and UK are allies in the GWOT.
Faced with the prospect of trials lasting 5-10 years and the revelation of MI5/MI6 secrets, the British Government has agreed to pay unspecified damages to the men. Needless to say, no one but the Americans know if the men were tortured. Terrorists are trained to claim torture even if they were given hot cocoa, pink blankies, and blue bunny slippers on their apprehension.
If this is way the GWOT is being fought, isn't it better to forget about the war and do something useful, like play the children's card game Go Fish?
There is a larger, more serious issue here. Is the GWOT a war or not? If it is a war, then countries participating in it need to declare a war, eliminating the civil process for enemy combatants. If it is not a war, and if we must pursue enemy combatants while giving the full spectrum of civil rights, then we need to rethink what it is we hope to achieve by the GWOT.
Hugo, Hugo, why are you stooping to associating with drug criminals? We are so displeased to read this story http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article/553849/201011151857/A-Gangster-With-Oil.aspx sent by Reader Luxembourg that we tempted to get on a plane and severely whack Hugo Chavez's backside with a paddle. What is the matter with Hugo? We know he protects the FARC, the Colombian left-wing narco-terrorist group. But this article says he is actually promoting high-ranking officials who are named by the US as drug lords. This is completely low-class. if Hugo does not sop this nonsense, we will have to throw him off our Fave Dictator list. Tyrants cna have class. Accessories to drugs can have no class.
Saudi Grand Mufti says terrorism un-Islamic says Dawn of Karachi, speaking of the Mufti's sermon at Mecca. While this is encouraging, remember that the Grand Mufti in Saudi Arabia is a state sanctioned official. Saudis official policy is anti-Islamic-terrorism, while its real policy is to support Islamic terrorists globally. The Saudi Government says it has nothing to do with members of the Royal family or rich businesspeople who give money to terrorists. So why are these people not being arrested, tried, and jailed? The reason Saudi turns a blind eye is that (a) the Government is basically paying off terrorists to do their thing outside of Saudi Arabia; and (b) a great many people in Saudi Arabia support militant Islam.
US-India defense deals being slowed by US insistence that India sign various agreements to ensure that certain items are protected. This requires monitoring, which India opposes. http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_generic.jsp?channel=defense&id=news/awst/2010/11/15/AW_11_15_2010_p46-268533.xml&headline=Security%20Pact%20Remains%20U.S.-India%20Hurdle
The major deals are 6 C-130J for special forces operation (plus six on option, which will be exercised, plus six more planned); 8 P-8 MR aircraft (plus option for 4, also to be exercised); 10 C-17s (plus 6 on option, also to be exercised); and 107 GE fighter engines for India's Light Combat Aircraft program. The Aviation Week story implies India has also placed orders for Harpoon anti-ship missiles and CH-47 Chinook helicopters.
Naturally it is not for Orbat.com to say if the Indians should or should not sign these agreements, but India might want to note the US denied the F-22 to Japan, its closest Pacific ally with who it has exchanged production technology for aircraft/helicopters for decades. Right now the Standard 3 ABM is being run as a joint US-Japan program. So the ties are very close indeed, yet US was not convinced its F-22 secrets would remain safe. So maybe India should not feel bad the US is insisting on monitoring agreements.
Meanwhile, the rumor is the F-16 is out of the Indian light fighter procurement (six squadrons with 126 aircraft) because US has supplied Pakistan with the same aircraft. US says the models given to India will be more advanced, but the Indians are not buying that line of argument. India is said to favor the Euro Typhoon. But please remember, the defense production companies put out an enormous amount of misinformation as part of their sales strategy.
What we're worried about is the multiplicity of fighter types in the Indian Air Force's modernization: Su-37, the Indian Tejas (LCA), the foreign light fighter, and the Medium Combat Aircraft. Four types for 35-40 squadrons is way too much. There should be one heavy fighter and one light fighter, and that's it. Oh yes: we forgot the Indo-Russian 5th Gen fighter. That's five programs.

November 16, 2010

US Generals make case to postpone start of Afghan withdrawals to 2014 And this case may well be accepted by the the administration. For example, on National Public Radio Senator John Kerry yesterday said, in essence, that the current strategy in Afghanistan began only last December. This is very true. But it does not follow that because it a new strategy, it needs an indefinite time to succeed. American strategists seem to forget the country gave them 8 years before last December, and all that happened is that the US steadily lost ground to the Taliban during those eight years.
You cannot every three years plead for more time on the grounds that the current strategy needs more time to work. Particularly when the current strategy is based on the wholly fallacious assumption that the Afghan police will be able to look after the countryside and urban centers by 2014. It doesn't matter how many years you give this strategy, it is not going to work because the Afghan police always were, and always will be, ineffective and corrupt. There is no American training officer who believes the Afghan police will be effective as of 2014. If you push them, they might say "2020", but that's not because they have any belief the job will be done by 2020, but because that's far enough in the future that when things go wrong with the police's performance - as they already are, and as have been for the last nine years, the trainers will not be around to be blamed.
Still further, the enemy shifted out of Afghanistan long ago. Its in Pakistan. And the enemy has expanded, because now its in Somalia and Yemen as well as Pakistan. It's a bit like the local police are focusing their resources on car thefts, meantime the criminals continue to burglarize houses, assault citizens, deal drugs, and rob banks. If the police were to claim success in the war on crime because they bring down the rate of car thefts, we would all laugh with derision. But when the administration and the generals foist their "progress" on us, we get impressed and say "Let the poor darlings have another three years." In 2014, of course, everyone will have forgotten the past, and the powers-that-be will be asking for a date of 2017.
What American strategists are doing is foisting a Big Lie on the government and the public. In Vietnam the Government did the Big Lie every day, and when people found out it was a Big Lie, they refused anymore to trust the government. This is a major reason why things are so messed up today. Without trust, you cannot have community. without community you cannot have progress. Without progress you get a degenerate nation.
The difference between Vietnam and Afghanistan is that the US military made up its mind it was no longer going to answer to the people, so they turned their back on the draftee army and went professional. Because so tiny a percent of Americans are in the military now - less than 2/3rds of 1 percent on active duty - and because of that miniscule number an even more miniscule number is at the sharp end, the American military figures it can continue its incompetence in Afghanistan for forever and a day. There is no one to complain. And every year, 2-million American men reach military age, and even if 75% are unfit for service, you have a pool of 500,000 who are fit. Of that pool you need about 15% or more. Young men and young men, and you will always find a hundred thousand or so eager and willing to join the service, to serve their country, to earn a living, and to test their manhood.
The American people are just as happy to forget about the whole thing. It doesn't affect them one way or the other. The $100-billion a year the war costs is not real money to the average American. His or her taxes are painlessly deducted at source to the extent that a majority of taxpayers get money back at the end of the year. when you're getting money back, no one wants to exert their minds and think about the money they are NOT getting back.
There are two groups of people not doing their job. One is the Administration, that lacks the moral courage to stand up to the warmakers. The other is the warmakers themselves, who keep telling us we can win in Afghanistan when we can't.
Yes, we could win in Iraq and we did. Whatever comes in the future, and it is unlikely to be what we hope for, no one can take away the reality of the US victory in Iraq, though it took seven years to do what should have taken one. You can legitimately ask, if we won in Iraq why cant we win in Afghanistan?
Quite simple. Iraq has one million men in its functioning security forces. Iraq had an efficient, fully functional military and security forces before the US went in. A little too efficient, because Iraq was a brutal police state. In Iraq America's error was in disbanding the security structures, thinking we were back in Japan and Germany in 1945.Once America realized its error and started building up the Iraqi forces the country needed, as opposed to the security forces the Americans wanted, the lost ground was quickly recovered. (Anyone remember the three light divisions the US thought would suffice for the Iraqi Army? What a laugh! Iraq already has the biggest army by far in the Middle East. er...but wasn't that why we were worried about the Iraqi threat to the Mid East? Look people, your Editor can explain one illogical action of the US Government a day. More than that gives him a headache.
And anyone notice, by the way, that all along Iraq was producing 2-million plus barrels of oil a day, or $4.5-billion/month at current prices. we haven't looked at the Afghan revenue budget lately; but we will be very surprised if its more than $150-million a month, or what Iraq earns in a day. Moreover, Iraq is on its way to 6-million barrels a day by the end of this decade, and could be producing 10-million/day within 15-years. That bigger figure, at current price, is worth $750-million a day, or very approximately $250-billion smackers a year.
Anyone notice that the level of education in Iraq is very high as compared to Afghanistan? Anyone notice there is NO shortage of engineers, technicians, managers and the like in Iraq compared to Afghanistan? Anyone notice that the Iraqi Army is today capable of operating in divisions and will very soon be able to operate in corps and field armies again, whereas the Afghan Army - which we have been training for three more years than the Iraqi Army - still cannot do a battalion operation without messing it up?
The root of the matter is, even if the Afghans pull their act together, which will not happen - in CI the police is more important than the Army, Afghanistan will not, even in 20, 30, 40 or perhaps even 50 years, be able to pay for its armed forces from its own budget. if the generals want to declare this as progress and light is at the end of the tunnel, and we must persevere, victory is ours, well, Editor has his fantasies about beautiful women throwing themselves at him, and you can put the Editor in solitary confinement in a dark, flooded cell, but you can't take his fantasy away. If you think America's strategists and generals are entitled to their fantasies on the same level as the Editor's - well, we're from Iowa and what do we know?
Good luck, America! They used to say God watches over fools and Americans. Everyone better get on their knees and start praying very hard that this is still the case. But you know what? In the Good Book it says very clearly indeed that God does not have unlimited patience.

November 15, 2010

Letter from Phil Rosen on Founding Fathers and defense "If we give up our aggressive forward defense and keep only to self-defense as the framers of the Constitution intended, we could reduce the defense/national security figure more than half."
I love how everyone cites "framers intent" as if the framers ever had a consensus on interpretation in their own life times. Jefferson argued that a standing federal army/navy would be unconstitutional; until he became president and decided to go to war against North Africa. At which point he ordered the attack, waited until the ships were beyond recall, and then informed congress. During the same term he initiated the largest increase in federal power to date, again without consulting congress first, in the Louisiana Purchase.
All of this from the president that everyone is holding up as the great proponent of state's rights. I really wish that you, Dick Army, and the Tea Party would stop re-writing history for political expedience. You all sound like fools.
Editor's response Mr. Rosen has made a valuable point, another reminder that people talk differently when they are running for office and when they are in office. As far as Editor is concerned, he is apolitical because to him all American politicians are the same. There is actually very little difference of opinion between them once you disregard the words. Editor's problem is just this. Ever since he did the sums and found we take in $2-billion in federal taxes and spend $3.6-trillion, its evident the US is headed to the downward reaches of that very hot place where the gentleman in a red satin suit entertains himself by poking everyone in the butt with a large fork.
We have proposed a very greatly reduced federal government not from an ideological view, but because we can't afford it. Readers have written saying why are we sparing defense, which is an effective $1-trillion a year. That is why we mentioned the FF's intent - as laid out in the 1776 document.
It is no longer a question of what is essential. It's a question of what we can afford. And we can't afford much at all, whether its DOD, or DOT or DOE or whatever. It doesn't matter how useful government entities we: we cant pay for them. You get to a stage when necessities have to be revaluated. Americans consider cell phones, cable, and eating out to be necessities. Editor has/does-not-do any of these simply because it doesn't matter how neccessary they are, he cannot fit them within his budget. Ditto the USA, on a bigger scale.
The generations who were in power 1980-2010, regardless of political affiliation, made sure we spent (as individuals and as government) more than we earned. This has to come to an end else we are betraying our children. Editor in effect is already betraying his eldest, who will be 70+ in thirty years. His youngest will be 55, fifteen years to retirement (Editor assumes it will be 70 by 2040). Of all the crimes that a person can commit, to destroy her/his children's future is the worst. Parents are supposed to sacrifice for their children, not rob their children. If previous generations had robbed us, where would we be today? Its a matter of successful evolution to sacrifice for our children.
Mr. Obama, out of nowhere, decides he will ask Congress for $14-billion to give social security recipients $250 each. Editor will not lie: he could use that $250. It would buy him a quarter tank more of oil so he could keep his house a little bit warmer, say 65-degrees for 10 hours a day, and so he could get his car fixed to pass inspection. But can the country afford $14-billion? No. So whose money is Mr. Obama giving us social security retirees? He's taking from future generations. This is called stealing, not generosity.
Editor read about a $90,000 course of drugs for prostate cancer treatment that extends life by four months. Editor is at the age he could get prostate cancer. When you are dying, the chance of an extra 4-months of live is overwhelming important. But who will pay for that $90,000? Editor, were he to get sick, could not. If the government pays, it is taking the money from Editor's - and yours - grandchildren and children. Approaching 66, Editor has to ask himself: who is the future of America? Him, or his children/grandchildren? Not terribly complicated to answer, is it?
So: we have to cut spending by $1.6-trillion (2010 figures) to balance the budget, and then cut by another $500-billion to pay for the national debt in 30-years. That's $2.1-trillion of $3.6-trillion needs to be cut. There are three ways to do this: Cut spending, raise taxes, or some combination of both. Our current generations are so spoiled they will not agree to increase taxes. So, no choice, we have to cut spending.
Of course, and we can hear Mr. Rosen laughing, because we are so spoiled we aren't going to agree to cut spending either. Forget the pathetic meows uttered by the budget cutters. Is anyone of them listing $2.1-trillion worth of federal spending cuts? No.
So what do we have left? A nation that is headed for a bust that will make the Great Depression look like 1960s boom times. We fiddle while Rome burns. Nero at least fiddled away in his palace while he watched Rome burn (yes, we are aware the legend and the likely reality don't match, but let's keep the handy metaphor). What we are doing is fiddling while our own houses are on fire. The way things are going, pretty soon we won't be able to afford firemen. At which point, Editor supposes, we can all take turns sitting around watching each others houses burn. To make it real Boomer-like, we can hold hands and sing Kumbayah.
From Lloyd Chapman On days you have no news to post, just post youtube clips of Jon Stewart attacking republicans and democrats.
Did Obama re-offer India a peacekeeping roll in eastern Afghanistan? should he since he's over that way? (or, was?)
Editor's response These summits serve mainly for face-time between heads of state. The real work is done in advance. India was, two years ago, quite keen on going to Afghanistan - it had even listed divisions it would send. But several things happened to get India to change its mind. One was that India realized the US was going all wobbly, to use Mrs. Thatcher's immortal admonishment to Mr. Bush The First. Two, the Indians realized (this shows you how cunningly brilliant they are) that the US was in Afghanistan because - hold your breath - of US interests, and the day US decided it was no longer in its interests, it would leave, with India holding the bag. Three, there was significant domestic opposition. All politicians support India's historic interests in Afghanistan, which go back at least a thousand years. The issue was if sending 120,000 troops was the right way to secure India's interests. Editor was among those who said it was not the right way. Last, India realized the US was not going to abandon Pakistan, which was a key Indian demand. And that raised a related question, if the US was not going to create heavy duty logistics routes that avoided Pakistan, how was the Indian deployment to be supported?
Now, Editor has not been back to India for 21 years, mainly because the Government of India was accusing him of treason as a response to Editor accusing the Government of treason. This got him really annoyed and he still is very annoyed. This is all a result of Editor's American upbringing which spurns shades of gray. As far as Editor was concerned, the traitors needed to be arrested and executed, and so what if that included most of the power elite that he was born into in India and was part of for 20-years. It is extremely miff-making when the traitors turn around on their accuser and say: "Who are you calling traitor, you traitor?" Well, it wasn't Editor who was selling India out. That makes him into not-the-traitor.
(BTW, the traitors have done very well for themselves. They have great lives, plenty of money, comfortable homes, can afford anything their kids and grandkids want, holidays abroad, and so on. Meanwhile, you've guessed it, Editor spent the last 21 years slogging in America along the classical American path of success: Manual laborer, clerk, school secretary, part-time teacher, full-time teacher, then being made to resign and back to zero with $807/month social security check, a so-called job as a teacher substitute, which is about the worst job in this country, debts up the wazoo, and every month wondering: is this last month I am in my house? This unfortunately is the classic American path of success today. And Editor blames no one: both the American elite and the Indian elite offered Editor many chances to be a full part of them. Editor said: "No, my integrity is more important." So he can't blame anyone that he eats pasta 365 days of the year, doesn't have health insurance, and has a net worth of minus) $160,000. And of course, no dates on Saturday or any other day. In India there was no shortage of dates - when Mrs. R IV was not around, of course - because intelligent, young, attractive women are drawn to intellectuals. Editor is very good at faking being an intellectual, and the women were very good at faking - ooops! Forgot for a mo' this is a family blog! Cant complete that sentence!
But Editor digresses. Not having been back in so long, its difficult to answer the question: how serious was India about sending troops to Afghanistan? His impression is that the Government of India got carried away - smoking too much of the good stuff, metaphorically - with all the US praise and pats and "you are so great, and a world power, definitely you should be on the UN Security Council" etc etc. US is really great at what the British call "giving the piss", and Indians fall for the US line very time. Editor is not blaming US, which is only looking out for its interests, as it darn well should. The blame is 100% on the Indians.

November 14, 2010

After 2.5 hours of browsing the web we failed to come up with even one interesting news story. Today would have been good for a rant. Alas, we haven't reached the Glen Beck stage yet, where the good Mr. Beck takes a single statement and restates it a hundred different ways. He makes good money doing this, we are told, $40-million a year. We will share one thought with you: an Indian-American economics professor has said one reason Americans don't get mad at the rich is because nowadays the rich are working rich. We happened to see three minutes of a Glen Beck show at the gym (editor has no TV at home) and there is no doubt the man works very hard.

November 13, 2010

We respect Yemen customs, please respect ours Daily Telegraph of UK says: "Tribal leaders in Yemen are refusing to lend support to their government's efforts to root out terrorism, saying that handing over local al-Qaeda operatives and their spiritual leader, Anwar al-Awlaki, would be an offence to their customs." This al-Awlaki gent apparently moves around freely in the tribal areas and the report from the Telegraph quotes people who have met him just a few days ago.
So, Orbat.com must announce we respect the customs of Yemini tribes. We ask only that the tribes respect an ancient American custom called "Wanted: Dead or Alive". We hope the tribes will be polite when the UAVs come calling.
Another point we'd like to make to the tribes is: are you by now yet clear that the US gets totally crazy when it feels threatened? Had the printer cartridge bombs exploded, at least one of the aircraft would have come down over Canada, though the bombers had planned for it to come down over New York/Pennsylvania. What do the tribes think would happen after that?
Hint: think OBL and Afghanistan. By the time this Afghan thing is over, the US will have spent a trillion dollars and - shall we say - turned the lives of the Afghan tribes upside down. To the Yemen tribes this US action may make no sense. But just as the Yemen tribal customs make no sense to Americans, who merely want you hand over an indicted criminal, the Yeminis will have to learn that what the Americans do doesn't always make sense, but that doesn't stop them from doing it.
So: do your customs matter so much that you are willing to be driven into desert to hide as every day the UAVs search for you and you never know which hour will be your last? Please don't doubt the Americans will kill anyone who stands between them an the wanted man.
So just give it a thought, will you? Very respectfully, orbat.com
(PS: If you are merely negotiating the price for handing over this gent, we understand: ignore the above.)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/yemen/8129179/Yemen-tribal-leaders-will-not-hand-over-al-Qaeda-operatives.html
Russian sources say spy betrayal story untrue reports ITAR-TASS of Russia. This is in response to allegations that the person who gave the identities of the Russian spy ring to US authorities is an Russian intelligence colonel who defected to the US. The allegations entered the realm of James Bond when it was said the Russians were out to kill the defector.
http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=15675833
MIT Professor Ted Postol says it was a missile We are no fans of the good professor, who is always going on about missile defenses are not ready to deploy and can't meet future threats. Well, if you want your weapon system of today to meet future threats, you will never get it deployed. And the notion that a weapons system has to work 100% before it can be deployed is fallacious - we'd still be fighting World War 2 on that basis. We can discuss this another time, but right now, our liking or not liking the professor is irrelevant. He insists that the unexplained contrail off California came from a missile, not an aircraft.
Truthfully, we're not experts of any sort in this matter. But this being California, which is an - um - unusual sort of a place, may be we should stop thinking along conventional lines.
Our explanation is that it was an alien UFO (as opposed to an Area 52 UFO, of which there many). The UFO was actually descending to earth because in the alien universe, up is down.
Okay, you say patiently, it was a UFO. Why would it want to visit California? Our theory is that the alien culture learned California was going to legalize cannabis, and set off before the election results were known. Since it was not, presumably the UFO will now take off for home, so we should watch for contrails through the earth, because remember, up and down is reversed in their universe.
Going to China is returning home for Pakistan President Zardari Currently on a visit, the Prez allows he has an internal romance with China and loves its people and its culture, and going to China is like returning home.
We have no clue as to what prompted this inane outburst, but we're willing to bet a large number of Pakistani citizens, fed up of the man's corruption, would be just as happy if he never returned.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/For-Zardari-China-is-just-like-home/articleshow/6917291.cms
Chinese games have 4-dimensional act or so they claim, with reference to the opening ceremonies for 16th Asian Games which they are hosting. We don't know what's so special about this 4-dimension business. Anything that moves in time is moving in the fourth dimension. If if you're dancing and prancing on a stage, you're doing a 4-D act. In writing this blog Editor is doing a 4-D act. Big deal.
http://www.gz2010.cn/10/1112/21/6LAO57RP0078002U_2.html
Letter from Anthony Garcia on privatizing the FAA and other government agencies In what way can the FAA's job be done by a private firm that must bid to the Airport? I can totally see the airport going to the low bidder who does what the airport wants ... After all who cares if an aircraft crashes because of poor maintenance and insufficient pilot training when the crash happens three states away!!!

similar arguments may easily be made for the FBI, DOT, Commerce, State, Agriculture, Energy, etc ...

Keep up the good work ... and get a date!!!

Editor's note First, we have to admit that for the Editor to get a date is much harder than getting America to live within its means and pay down its debt! Next, it's likely after a thorough examination and debate, we agree some jobs may be better done by the government. If so, then we'd like to see a user fee system, not payment from taxes. We we actually thinking that the Air Traffic Control hardware could be spun off to a public utility, and anyone who wanted to bid for providing services to airlines could do so. Yes, there is a danger that the successful bidders would quote the lowest fees, cut quality of service, and an airplane does crash three states away with no one in the intervening states giving a darn. According to market theory, the company responsible would be out of business first time negligence was proved, because its insurance company would refuse to continue covering the company.
In the meanwhile, we have dead people. But if Americans are concerned about it, let's have a consensus that maybe the current FAA, funded by user fees, is the way to go. Right now what's happening is that a whole bunch of Americans are feeling the Government keeps imposing new mandates, new bureaucracies, and new taxes/fees without anyone really getting a chance to agree or disagree.
For example, even a neutral country has to have embassies abroad. You can't do away completely with the State Department. But when we are running $1.6-trillion deficits as far as the eye can see, can we really afford a $56-bilion State Department? We don't think so. A $5-billion State Department, yes.
In general our approach is lets put everything on the table, and let's return control to the States instead of Washington. Readers will immediately see the problem: states like New York, Texas, Florida, and California are bigger than most countries! Residents there will still feel disconnected from their state government. Solution, smaller states.
There's obviously a great deal of discussion that needs to start. May as well start now.

November 12, 2010

This is what your tax dollars are being used for

Christian woman in Pakistan to hang for blasphemy

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/Christian-woman-sentenced-to-death-for-blasphemy-in-Pakistan/articleshow/6909757.cms

Japan to send troops to Yonaguni Island approximately 100-km east of Taiwan. The 100 troops, eventually to be double, will monitor PLAN warship activity. Report from AFP.
Ted Hooton of "The General's Spyglass" says Japan has proposed adding 13,000 troops to its army. Currently authorized 147,000 troops, the army is under strength at 140,000, so that deficit has to be made up before any expansion can take place, Possibly the additional troops will go toward returning three Japanese divisions that were reduced to brigades in this decade back to divisions (Japanese divisions are about 9000 men). The move to increase overall army strength is on account of increased concerns for the defense of Japan's southwestern islands in view of increasingly hostile PLAN activity.
We've already a few days ago mentioned that Japan plans to add six patrol submarines to its fleet of 16, again, because of the PLAN.
Bowles-Simpson deficit reduction plan not enough says Orbat.com, according to Orbat.com's highly placed Washington intelligence sources. Erskine Bowles (D) and Alan Simpson (R) chaired a bipartisan panel that has recommended a 8-year reduction of the national debt by a variety of measures. 25% of the revenue needed will come from phasing out tax deductions like mortgage interest (to be partly offset by reducing taxes on individuals and corporations), 57% by reducing spending, and the rest by measures such as gradually raising the age of early Social Security retirement to 64 and full-retirement to 69. Some jobs would allow retirement at 62.
Orbat.com's highly placed intelligence source tell Orbat.com that not just is there zero chance of the proposals being accepted, seeing as the national debt is $14-trillion, the $4-trillion reduction is way insufficient.
Orbat.com has released its own plan for wiping out the national debt in 30 years and reducing the deficit to zero immediately, without tax increases. The plan calls for cutting Federal spending by 90%, defense/security spending by 50%, and putting social security/Medicare takes into an untouchable fund that will pay out only what it takes in.
Besides eliminating most federal government departments, the Orbat.com plans calls for scrapping the President's entire private air transport fleet. This is America, and we, the people, are as good as the President. The President can travel cattle-class on commercial airlines and take Metrobus/Metrorail just as the rest of us do.
Of course many services provided by the Federal Government will still need to be done, the FAA, for example. example. But we envisage privatizing the FAA, DOT, Commerce, State, Agriculture, Energy etc etc. A much reduced FBI will be needed, but with a return to states rights there will be no need for Justice. Etc etc. No private company will have a monopoly to provide particular services because a private monopoly is worse than a government monopoly: the government is at least not trying to make a profit. A private monopoly is not just as inefficient as a government monopoly, it also seeks to make an exorbitant profit.
To prevent innocent taxpayers from being hit by increased state and county taxes to make up for the loss of federal income, we propose that most state/county services also be privatized (with competition), and laws established saying for every 2% increase in GDP only a 1% increase in revenues is permitted. There is no sense in cutting back the federal government only to replace it with bloated state government.
By the way, before you start laughing (in case you haven't yet begun), the concept of a competitive FAA is quite easy. If you have three airlines serving one airport, why can't we have three different air travel companies for that airport? Companies would have to rebid for their contracts every three years.
As for privatizing police, firefighters and so on, what is so absurd about that? Many counties are starting to privatize education, the same can be done with other services.
The tired old thinking as represented by the Bowles-Simpson report will not suffice. Wipe the slate clean, start again.
Oh yes: in case you ask: why is defense being cut only in half? If we give up our aggressive forward defense and keep only to self-defense as the framers of the Constitution intended, we could reduce the defense/national security figure more than half. Yes we could. May as well go for that. Switzerland has avoided going to war for the better part of almost 200 years because of its policy of strict neutrality - which it has protected by armed force, by the way. So we're not saying we can eliminate the military.
One way of defending ourselves would be to focus almost entirely on a nuclear offense and a nuclear defense. No "graduated response" business. Someone wants to mess with us, wipe out their country. Use the nuclear defense to stop retaliation. Resurrect the original American naval jack as our national flag: Don't Tread On Me. Its very sad that the founders of this country were anti-imperialist, and we've honored their memory by having military bases and military involvement in more countries than any other empire Earth has ever seen.
Aircraft track of the "Mystery Missile" Reader Luxembourg sends this URL if you want to see the track of the aircraft that was misidentified as a mystery missile. several readers have noted the "real life" explanation is terribly boring. Here we are, going bust as a country, and the US Government can't even arrange some entertainment for its long-suffering citizens? http://flightaware.com/live/flight/AWE808/history/20101108/1955Z/PHNL/KPHX Also see http://www.avweb.com/avwebflash/news/missile_launch_california_contrail_aircraft_203591-1.html and http://uncinus.wordpress.com/2010/11/09/4/
From Todd Croft on why US Government and Americans can't seem to solve big problems today About US Gov credibility, I blame that on the hippies and commies. The WWII generation had a different perspective on the government. Sure, they were independent, and naturally hesitant, like most generational Americans. But, it was in the 60's, 70's that rampant distrust of the gov ensued .....hippies ....and it can be demonstrated that they were influenced by Commie propaganda. The US Gov was always understood to make mistakes, duh, all people do. But it was also understood to be an extension of us, and our "goodness" or "virtue". It still is, but no one trusts. Why? Maybe because no one actually believes in it being an extension of us anymore. Maybe because no one believes in the inherit goodness of Americans ...of course they do, because they think they are good, but not the Gov? It's a disconnect. The people perceive differently. They've made their own "hologram" country. What is the Gov supposed to do? Anything they say just sounds like propaganda, which ruins any credibility. Maybe we'll have to wait for a new generation again, of people that are willing to be good, and act good, and embody good policies ...instead of the nutz now-a-days that say "good", but wouldn't know it because they're too busy getting out of life what they think they deserve.

November 11, 2010

End Times Are Here

Leading Chinese credit rating agency downgrades USA government bonds

(This is a respected, independent agency. It arrived at its decision after refusing to accept the US's happy assumptions about its economy and economic strength)

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmcowie/100008566/leading-chinese-credit-rating-agency-downgrades-usa-bonds/

Is India's Cold Start Doctrine Destabilizing?

Lots of people think so, but all the doctrine does is match Pakistan's capabilities to attack with 72-hours warning.
Cold Start was initiated as an Indian strategic doctrine in the late 1990s when someone figured out that by the time the Indian Army mobilized (10-21 days), Pakistan would have reacted, and the front would be locked before a single shot was fired. So India decided it had to reorganize and rebase some formations to begin an attack in 72-hours.
There's a lot of misunderstanding about a zero warning attack. Honestly, there is no such thing. Its not the easiest thing in the world to take between 650,000 soldiers (Pakistan) and 1.3-million soldiers (India) and to attack without the other side having the least indication.
Its true that formations that are right up on the border can deploy individual battalions or regiments within four hours. But it takes time to cancel leaves and get people back from training courses, dump supplies forward, and perform reconnaissance to get an up-to-date picture of the enemy's deployment. It takes even longer to figure out where are his reserves. All this assumes that you are topped off and ready to go, which is not the case with any army. There's always parts and equipment that are not ready, batteries that are unavailable, the right mix of POL to be produced, stuff to be procured from overseas and so on. Sure, you can go to war without being topped off, but unless you're planning a long war - which neither India or Pakistan do - then you're going to have problems.
India faces a unique problem on mobilization time versus Pakistan. In normal times, all Pakistan's army minus four divisions is based East of the Indus, and can reach its war positions in 72-hours. India is a much larger country, about five times the size of Pakistan. And also it relies on its China front formations to provide superiority in wartime. Because its formations are so widely dispersed, it really requires 21 days to get everyone to the start line - again, assuming you are topped off and have your feet against the starting blocks.
India has very slowly been boosting its armor forces deployed close to the Pakistan border and shifting other cantonments closer. The operative words are "very slowly. It's more than 10 years since the doctrine was enunciated, and it will be at least 10 years more before the rearrangement of forces is made.
The mechanics of Cold Start The doctrine requires India to attack with forces in place, in several armored/mechanized brigade sized battlegroups, eight is the number usually mentioned. These battlegroups are to punch holes in the Pakistani defenses, and infantry is supposed to widen the breaches. While this is happening, the three strike corps are being mobilized for the kill.
A big hope of Cold Start is that the large number of breeches panics Pakistan into early commitment of its two two strike corps, so that when India does its big strike, there is little to oppose the Indian strike corps.
But it takes two to tango Since even the US never seems able to anticipate that its strategy will be countered by the enemy, we're not going to beat-up the Indians for not seeing that Pakistan would react. Starting in 1999 itself, very shortly after Cold Start began to be established as a doctrine, Pakistan began the process of providing each of its four plains holding corps with an armored division to meet India's Cold Start - thus removing the necessity to deploy its strike corps, which remain in reserve to counter India's strike corps. Yes, Pakistan is very short of resources, and one of the four armored divisions has not yet formed. But it will be long before India is truly positioned for Cold Start.
Cold Start is already countered and as such it is an obsolete doctrine before it was emplaced - "Cold Start, we hardly knew ye" and that sort of thing.
To begin with CS should not have given anyone anxiety: all it was meant to do was to enable India to start a war within 72 hours of mobilization, which Pakistan has always had the theoretical capacity to do.
But there is another, more fundamental problem India has always had a defensive, short-war strategy. For all the fancy talk about Cold Start, this remains true today. Its a matter of temperament rather than resources. For one thing, India is no longer short on resources. India spends just 2% of its current $1.4-trillion GDP on defense (by 2014 it will be $2-trillion GDP). There is no reason why India cannot in five years mechanize all its plain forces, allowing for rapid offensive operations. But truly, this is not going to happen in five, or in ten years. More like 20 years. And then there's unpleasant minor facts such as the bulk of India's tank regiments have no night fighting capability, which kinds ruins any commander's day if he's planning high-speed operations.
The problem in 2001-2002 was not mobilization time as many seem to think. India mobilized to attack Pakistani terror camps after a terror group attacked the Indian Parliament in December 2001. Because India by now understands there is no such thing as a limited war with Pakistan, it basically had to be prepared for all-out war in the event Pakistan counter-escalated in response to the attack on terror camps. By about February, say 6-8 weeks later, all was in readiness. But then the politicians bugged out because they weren't prepared to deal with the idea that the war would escalate, and either India should have been ready for its last round with Pakistan, or best not to start. The politicians managed to get themselves a stiffer spine, so that around May-June India was ready to go with a revised plan, the original plan having been sussed out by Pakistan as time went on. But the pols again bugged out, and by around October, the Indian Army had to start redeploying to peace stations because you cannot keep your forces in the field month after month - your readiness starts to degrade.
The US and Cold Start One of the great fantasies that Washington has engaged in for the last 15-years or so is that it has repeatedly stopped India and Pakistan from going to war. Sheer arrogant nonsense. Complete bosh. Too many cocktails. To have stopped India and Pakistan from going to war presumes that both sides wanted to fight. The only time when anyone has wanted to fight is in 1999, when for some reason Pakistan thought it could send its "freedom fighters" to occupy the heights above the vital road to Leh. That this "freedom fighter" strategy had not worked in two previous wars, 1947-48 and 1965, made no difference to Pakistan, which has stuffed itself on the self-deception that the Indians can't fight and won't fight.
The US, of course, claims that it stopped India from retaliating in 1999 - India confined itself to recovering lost territory and did not escalate. Oddly, the US cannot provide one piece of evidence that India seriously considering expanding the war or that it had anything to do with that decision. And, please, let's not get into this "we have information we cant give you because you're not cleared". Sure. Editor does not know what "information" (think Austin Powers) has, but he knows what the Indians were up to.
And all that happened is is that India half-heartedly trotted out its contingency plans for escalation, and the Government decided it didn't want to escalate. All that happened on the US side was US saying "please don't escalate", and assuming when India did not, the US was responsible. May as well say of the sun "I made it rise and I made it set".
The reason India did not attack in the early 1990s when Pakistan was creating much trouble for India in Kashmir, or in 1999, or in 2001-2002, or in 1986-87 for that matter, is that you have this bunch of extreme cowards who run India (Its called a civilian government) and you have a military leadership that is so passive that if you called 911 for an ambulance, the EMTs would be unable to find a pulse (the Indian military leadership calls this constructional obedience to the civil power).
What the Indians are best at is listening to someone sing their praises. President Obama is absolutely the right person to have gone to India (in line with our new commitment to balance the budget we wish he's booked the first-class part of a commercial airliner). President Obama is one of the finest producers of hot air the US has ever seen. And the Indians are the greatest consumers of hot air the world has ever seen.
Obama has convinced the Indians they are a world power. Since he has anointed India, no need for the Indians to actually do anything except sit and bask in glory. They can't feed their malnourished (no shortage of food by the way, its lack of will to distribute it), they cant provide basic health and education to their people, but we're so great we're going to get a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Oh, please!
By the way, since like Debka,com we are into this Above Top Secret stuff, we'll share a little secret with the Indians. US has absolutely no intention of expending ANY political capital on helping India get a seat. Nor will China allow it. And if at some point India does get a seat, it will be alongside Brazil, South Africa, Germany, and Japan, and then the real powers will change the rules of the game so that they relegate other permanent members to second-class status. How do we know? Like Debka.com, we have top military and diplomatic sources in Washington! We can even tell you the brand of the President's toilet paper! You'll have to pay, of course.

November 10, 2010

If you doubt the Saudis are enemies of America, please Bill Roggio's article "Haqqani Network facilitator arrested on plane bound for Saudi Arabia". We are no lawyers, but surely there is something in American law about aiding and abetting America's enemies. We have just agreed to sell Saudi $60-billion in arms over several years. If that is not aiding and abetting, what is? Americans are ready to bring suit against any injury to them. Why is someone not bringing a suit against the Government of the United States. and why has not anyone taken the USG to court for aiding and abetting Pakistan, which then turns around and maintains and leads the Taliban, which is killing Americans? Is this not aiding and abetting the enemy? If you and I aid the enemy, the government calls it "treason". So what do we call it when the Government is the aider and abettor? We hardly need to point out that the usual penalty for treason during wartime is death.
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/11/haqqani_network_faci.php#ixzz14pDUZuSQ

US Government can't explain missile launch We know Americans revel in doing their thing unhampered by government regulations, but does doing one's thing include launching a missile 55-km off the California coast? Government says it has no clue about the launch. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-11721981
Fortunately, someone does have an explanation - hooray for the private sector? - names, Mr. John Pike of www.globalsecurity.com He tells CNN: "It's clearly an airplane contrail," Pike said Tuesday afternoon. "It's an optical illusion that looks like it's going up, whereas in reality it's going towards the camera. The tip of the contrail is moving far too slowly to be a rocket. When it's illuminated by the sunset, you can see hundreds of miles of it ... all the way to the horizon."Why the government is so badly organized that they can't get somebody out there to explain it and make this story go away ... I think that's the real story," Pike added. "I mean, it's insane that with all the money we are spending, all these technically competent people, that they can't get somebody out there to explain what is incredibly obvious."
Phew! That's a relief. For a moment we thought maybe USG has subcontracted America's missile deterrent to some fly-by-night private company.
Defense on $300-billion a year Someone asked, so we answer. 6 aircraft carriers (more than the rest of the world put together in terms of combat potential), 1700 fighter aircraft (if compared on same-to-same basis likely someone around 2/3rds world fighter inventory, active and reserve); and 25 brigades (Army and Marine) plus 15 reserve brigades.
I.e., cut the US defense budget in half, and US is still by far the world's strongest military power.
What the reduction in ground forces does is, yes, force the US to think twice before undertaking a major overseas commitment of troops. Is this a bad thing? We don't think so.
Cut other defense related stuff by half, and you free $500-billion a year for debt reduction.
BUDGET FY 2011 $744-billion. The baseline DOD budget is $549-billion. Other national security spending not included in above is $258-billion (this is an approximate calculation).

Department of Veterans Affairs	$125-billion
Department of Home Land Security	$56-billion
National Intelligence Program	$52-billion 2011
Nuclear weapons	$10-billion
Coast Guard	$10-billion
Foreign military aid	$5-billion
$258-billion

So: US tax income (minus social security/medicare/medicaid reciepts) = $1.2-trillion. If social security etc is to be maintained, create a separate budget which the federal government cannot touch, and which cannot pay out more than it takes in. Otherwise abolish.
US federal spending $1.8-trillion (minus ~$800-billion social security etc taxes) plus $1-trillion defense related = $2.8-trillion. Cut defense related by half, take out social security etc income (about $800-billion) and reduce the federal budget to 10% of what it is today. Total US federal budget $700-billion. Taxes, $1.2-trillion. Left: $500-billion for debt reduction. Debt is paid off in 28 years.
It isn't that simple, we'll be told Actually it is.

November 9, 2010

Six Taliban groups join Hakimullah Mesud's TTP in South Waziristan

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/11/pakistani_taliban_en.php

Editor promises to get back to a narrower focus on GWOT. Its just that ever since he realized the economy is shot to heck, he's worried how is America going to remain supreme if we're broke and in debt.

Spending money like water

Yesterday's Washington Post (Jim Simons, "A classroom fix for the economy", p. A15) had a proposal to get talented math/science college students to teach in public schools. It noted that graduates with math/science degrees are better paid in non-teaching jobs. So the proposal suggests scholarship aid for the future teachers, and a stipend on top of their teacher pay.
Sounds like a great idea: until you realize the writer wants the Federal Government to pay for it. It would cost $2-billion/year, and America, says the writer, could make no better investment.
The first problem is that this kind of thinking is what got us into our current, fatal financial mess. Its precisely because the government, egged on by "we the people" have casually said "oh this is just $10-billion more and this is $20-billion, what difference does it make". The difference it makes is that the federal government takes in $2-billion in taxes and spends $3.6-trillion. We don't have to have to be a math teacher to figure this out.
Second, is there empirical proof that it is the pay side of the equation discourages youngsters from going into teaching? As a teacher, I am repeatedly told that the primary cause of teachers leaving the profession - 40% leave within five years, possibly the highest attrition rate in any profession - is (a) because of the students; (b) because of the administrators. Money is seldom mentioned for the simple reason no one who wants money becomes a teacher in the first place.
Third, where is the market rationale for the federal government to pay a subsidy to math/science teachers? Residents of American school districts are prepared to pay a certain amount in taxes for education. Shouldn't it be left to them to decide that if they value math/science teachers so much more than other teachers they can pay them more?
Fourth, math/science teachers are already required to have 36 college-level credits in their subject area - the same applies to any teacher. That is the equivalent of a Bachelor's degree. Now, I dont have a bachelor's in math. My degrees are in government, education, business, and I hope soon to have an English degree. But I have 41 math credits and plan to get more. I'm not quite sure what a school would gain by having me get a math BA, particularly since in the vast majority of American schools you dont have to teach more than Calculus I, and the bulk of the teachers are teaching Algebra I/II and Geometry.
Fifth, has anyone actually sat down and figured out why America rates so low in international math scores? As a 15-year teacher I am happy to tell you. First, most countries stream students. By 7th Grade or thereabouts, they go into the humanities stream or the science stream. By 10th grade in most countries you get further streamed, into the vocational track and the college track. But America is the only major country that wants everyone to go to college. Our average math kid is competing with their smart math kid. So obviously we're going to come out lower. Take the kids from America's 1000 best high schools, and you'd get a very different result.
Next, it is a complete fallacy that you have to be really good at your subject to teach it. I will give you an example. I went to an Ivy college. every second professor of mine seemed to have a Nobel prize. And you know what? They couldn't teach to save their lives. I can unequivocally tell you that the math teachers at Montgomery College, a 2-year institution in my county, are better teachers than I had at the Ivy school. This is because being an expert in a subject doesn't qualify you to teach it! You have to be a qualified teacher to teach anything! I will give you another example. I am a national security expert, 40 years of articles, papers, chapters in books, and books behind me. But if someone ever made the mistake of asking me to teach grad school, leave alone high school, it would be a disaster because I don't have the slightest idea to teach my subject to students, though I am a good math teacher! Yes, if you have twenty years national security background, I can teach you effectively.
Next - and people, this is really going to hurt. American students don't do well because a whole bunch of them have so many issues that even the very best teacher cannot bring them to par. Example: I had 12th Grade students who could not read or do 7th grade math. Its not their fault - its their parents' fault.
Last, I am going to say something that is really going to hurt. The parent is the first teacher. If the parents are not 100% behind the child, the child is perforce operating under a major handicap. Kids can survive bad teachers or indifferent teachers. They cannot survive bad parenting.
Do I have proof of my assertion? Yes, in the form a small study I did at one of my Catholic schools. With the exception of three students in the Grades 1-8 of the school, 220 kids, every single honor student came from a two-parent family. Of the three that were from single parent families, the mother were fanatical that their kids must do well in school.
As a society we have to understand that teachers cannot make right what is wrong at home. The responsibility lies first with the parent. Give me three years with a child who is six grades below level, and with her cooperation, I can bring her to par before she graduates 12th Grade. But I cannot do this while 60% of my class is acting up and I am on damage control more than I am on teaching. By acting up I include not showing up for class, or sleeping, or talking, or focused on their music or texters.
So what is that we're going to ask the Federal Government next to do for us? Pay for toilet paper AND wipe our rear ends?

November 8, 2010

The Gulf: No action against Iran is imminent

Chris Raggio wrote saying Debka.com is up to its usual story, war against Iran is imminent based on the movement of US warships. The last time we went through this was recently as May 2010, when both Todd Croft and Shipkiller, who track US naval movements, said the Debka report was wrong. Here is Todd Croft's analysis of the current situation. The analysis is compressed, but you can still make out what Mr. Croft is saying.

The Debka.com story (November 7, 2010

Before taking off for Asia Saturday, Nov. 6, President Barack Obama ordered the Pentagon not just to beef up American and NATO military pressure on Iran but to do so as conspicuously as possible, debkafile's Washington and military sources report. In the last few days, three aircraft carriers, four nuclear submarines and several marine assault units have piled up opposite Iranian shores. US Sen. Lindsey Graham has called for US to strike Iran's navy, air force and Revolutionary Guards. (Read the rest at http://debka.com/article/9132/

Todd Croft

True, it would be a third CVN once it gets there, IF the Truman sticks around. For a week or two we had 2-CVN and 2-LHDs in the CENTCOM AOR, and nothing happened except the Peleliu ARG helping out the Pak with their flooding issues. But, the Peleliu is rotating out, and meandering back to San Diego. Very soon the Truman will meander back to Norfolk, probably this week. And, chances are, the CDG will not arrive in time for any action. The euro-navies are currently laser-eye focused on the Somalia pirates, and a good number of resources are tied up there. I remember about 2 years ago, or more, NATO and the euro navies had their patrols as such... SNMG-1 (Atlantic) SNMG-2 (Med) CJTF-150?? (Arabian Sea)
And then the pirate thing got real messy, and the Russians and Chinese invited themselves to the party, which embarrassed the euro's. CJTF-150 started spending all their time off Somalia, SNMG-2 started spending half their time there too, and SNMG-1 covered the Atlantic and Med. Now, Op Atalanta is the party they all want to join vs. the pirates, and the SNMG's have practically dissolved into the NATO-NRG (or something like that).
What I'm trying to say is that the CDG is going to join Atalanta, not us, in my estimation.
Further, since the Iranian thing got dicey, NO US CARRIER has plied the Persian Gulf ...period (which indicated strategic tension). So, what happened 2-weeks ago? The Lincoln introduced itself to CENTCOM by paying a visit to Bahrain. That likely means it's safe to swim in the water again (Editor: i.e., no action is imminent).
What do I expect to happen?
Peleliu to pop up in the Phillippine Sea, and visit Guam, everyone's favorite love-hate port of call (beautiful place, nothing to do);

The Truman Battle group will suck eels into their water intakes while in the Red Sea, as they wander back home; The CDG will meander through the Med, then show those nasty pirates what happens when you mess with the US Navy.

The Lincoln will toss bombs at the Taliban after protecting Obama in India; The Kearsarge will divest itself of it's escorts.

News

Royal Navy's Astute class SSNs will never be refueled during their 25-year lifetime. The 7400-ton boat has a submerged speed of 29-knots, and carries 38 torpedoes and cruise missiles. It is claimed the boat is as quiet as a baby dolphin, which basically means she is undetectable. The important aspect of the speed is, of course, the maximum quiet speed, The second boar of the class, HMS Ambush will commission in 2011, followed by Artful, Audacious, and Agamemnon. This class will replace the Trafalgar boats completely by 2022. The Trafalgars commissioned between 1983-1991.
The Imperial Presidency The VH-71 presidential helicopter, before cancellation in 2009, was to cost $400-million for a 28-ship run. (Other estimate are for $470-million each.) The Washington Post in March 17, 2008, said that the 28 helicopters would replace 19 older ones, and the reason so many are needed is "The squadron also serves the vice president, defense secretary, Navy secretary, visiting heads of state and other officials. So many helicopters are needed because the president typically travels with two or more when he flies, with the extras ferrying staff and Secret Service, serving as backups and playing decoy. When a president makes multiple stops, additional sets of helicopters must be airlifted to his next destinations." It said the price had doubled between signing the contract in 2005 and 2008. As for the expense of each helicopter, Post said that's because of requirements.
Defense Industry Daily in June 21, 2010 noted that the first winner of the contest was to provide the helicopters for $60-million each, but the White began escalating requirements.
We think the White House needs to start reconsidering its "requirements". If the upper estimate in 2008 was for $470-million each, one wonders what the cost would have been in 2015, by the time of final delivery. $600-million each, perhaps?
And this escalation by 8-times within three years (2005-2008) needs to be explained.
Letter from Lloyd Chapman on the Tea Party and US health insurance The status of the US economy was already bad. that was a small reason why bush was voted out. Everyone votes more conservative in a recession. Every contractor company and self employed contractor votes for anyone who talks about lower taxes anyways.
Why did not Luxembourg shop around if Humana wasn't providing the best price? And how much of US self-insured premiums are tax deductable?
I am from Canada and pay $59/month as my premium. I am free to buy additional policies/coverage if I wish.

November 7, 2010

Letter from Luxembourg on Mr. Obama and Healthcare My brother is a heating and air conditioning contractor, small company, 4-5 employees, almost 20 years. Never interested in politics, never listened to Rush Limbaugh or Glenn Beck. After 2 years of Obama, he and almost every contractor he works with is Tea Party.

People vote pocketbook, and he and his fellow contractors feel that Obama and his policies are destroying everything they've worked their entire lives for.

I'm self employed, independent contractor, have to buy my own health insurance. Last year paid $295 a month premium (just for me). Humana renewed me this month: $417 a month. Thank You ObamaCare. They offered an alternative plan for $350/ without prescription coverage. I took that, then they called me last week. The $350 was cancelled.because the Dept of Health and Human Services (HHS) threatened Humana with criminal prosecution if they offered it. Big Intrusive Government ?

Tea Party, here I come !! (LOL).

Editor's Note We don't think a piece of news we gave readers the other day is going to make reader Luxembourg happy. Private sector companies have started to cancel healthcare for their employees because if the Government is going to cover if you're uninsured, why should your employer cover you? You can argue this is an example of the Law of Unintended Consequences. But why didn't the Government carefully think through the issue before enacting it?
Now, in all fairness, the private sector insurance companies are completely complicit for the mess we're in. How is it the US spends 16% of GDP on health, going up to 33% in two decades, and still provides worse results than other first class national healthcare systems, which spend half as much?
How did the Government ever imagine that it can get get us out of this mess by mandate? The private companies are a lot smarter than the Government! This will not end well.
We are not saying the right has any better answers than the left. As reader Flymike keeps telling us, left and right are equally off the rails. The left wants the Government to equalize incomes. The right wants the Government to protect its looting of the American people. Clearly the revolution is not here yet.
Oh yes, you wanna entrust your defense policy to an incompetent government (we include Mr. Bush in this - it has nothing to do with left or right, it has to do with incompetence.)?
Letter from Eric Cox on the US Census Minor correction to your post of today on Orbat: The US constitution requires an "enumeration" every ten years for the purpose of allocating House seats and taxes. It allows the House to determine how the "enumeration" to be conducted. Nothing about shoe leather: I filled out and mailed in my census form as the great preponderance of Americans did. The shoe leather folks are mainly retained to track down the non-responders. Far higher percentage of folks do not respond to the "Long Form" census questionaire.
I got one in 2000 and only partly filled it out. Nice census person came and talked to me. I told him much of the information requested had nothing to do with the required "enumeration" and it was none of the government's business. He said: "Okay, I'll just guess at the answers based on my observation of the neighborhood". I guess he did and I heard no more from them.
Which begs the question: How does the government manage to spend $ 35.00 PER PERSON, not per household, which is how the census forms actually measure things?
Editor's Note Honestly, its like the defense area. We wonder every day how the US manages to spend close to $1-trillion on defense including the wars, intelligence, homeland security, nuclear weapons etc etc We'd calculated once US was spending $5-million to kill each enemy in Iraq, whereas the enemy was spending $5000/year to maintain that enemy in the field. The whole thing is very strange, including the Census thing.

November 6, 2010

Pakistan mosque blast in Dara Adam Khel (you'll have heard the town's name as related to its vast open-air arms bazaar) kills 70 people, It is only the latest in a long series of attacks against Pakistani mosques.
We are very sorry, but multicultural as we are, and as willing to respect other people's religion as we are our own, we cannot under any conditions accept that it is right to blow up places of worship and the worshippers within. We do not care how many verses and learned saying Islamic fundamentalists quote justifying the murder of Muslims who don't agree with them and of non-Muslims, this is not right. In case people haven't noticed, the year now is 2010 AD, not 700 AD. If Islamists maintain they can kill anyone for heresy, Muslim or non-Muslim, then we have the right to kill them before they kill us. And please understand, it is not practical to arrest each Muslim individually, and determine his views on the punishment for heresy, and if he believes it is death, we put him to death.
Our argument is not that the US should now expand the GWOT by jumping into Pakistan. We argue against this on the grounds of efficacy as well as the lack of resources on our side. There are many things worth doing in this world that we do not do because we lack the efficient and cost-effective means to do them. So it is with the GWOT.
What we are saying it is long past time that the West understood all values are not equal. There has to be a floor below which we must refuse to accept deviancy. This floor has to be that you either respect the right of everyone to live, or we will take away your right to live. This is not hypocrisy, this is practicality. You cannot have one side - Islamic fundamentalists - play by their rules while the rest of the world plays by different rules. It makes no more sense than saying we shouldn't have opposed Hitler, Stalin, and Mao because we needed to respect their values.
Correction on Representative Michelle Bachman Reader Luxembourg points out that Ms. Bachman has been reelected to the House, and not elected to the Senate. He further says in his personal opinion nothing is going to change just because of the ascension of the Tea Party and resurgent Republicanism.
Our only excuse for this pathetic error is that to the Editor, American politicians look as different from each other as would individual members of a clown convention. And there's nothing racist in that observation because Editor has even less success at differentiating one Indian politician from another. Wonder if this has something to do with age, when people just merge into one stereotypical image under the category "human beings". At which point we can hear readers booing: "If you see politicians as human being then you are even more crazy than we previously thought." Okay, so how about this "Editor sees politicians as protoplasmic five-star blobs".
Two people Editor can really not tell apart despite living in Maryland for twenty years are Governors Martin O'Malley and Marc Ehrlich. These two gentlemen keep changing roles as if Maryland gubernatorial politics were a two-man show. What makes it worse is their wives both have "K" first names - Kate and Kendall. Of course the American Baby Boomer and post habit of giving girls boys names is hardly unique to the US: Ravi is a girl's name in India as much as it is a boy's name. Maybe that's why the Editor never gets a Saturday night date. Could it be he is - er - confused?
BTW, we are told Rep. Bachmann and her husband fostered 21 children, in groups obviously, not all at the same time. Whatever we may think of her politics (and it isn't much), this a noble and generous thing she did.
"The US does have a plan to pay down the national debt" A reader chides us for our naïveté: he says the US actually has two plans to pay down the national debt. The first is to keep interest rates very low, so that the cost of borrowing for the Government is very low. The national debt is approaching $15-trillion, but interest payments on the debt in 2010 were less than $160-billion. When interest rates go up, says our reader, the Government will merely let the dollar depreciate. It has already been following a gradual depreciation policy, which is hidden because given the trade deficit the US runs, a dollar depreciation is natural.
The reader notes that tax payments are not tax indexed. So say the Government borrows $1 in 2020. Government lets inflation reduce the value of the 2020 dollar to fifty cents. It can then use fifty cents in real 2020 money to pay off a dollar borrowed in 2010.
Now, Editor acknowledges that the economics we are presenting here are very simplified. But there's nothing wrong with that. Before one can tackle complexity, one has to under the issue in simplest possible terms, such as we used the other day: Federal Government takes in $2-trillion a year, and spends $3.6-trillion a year. There's no need to qualify that figure with "buts, ifs, thens, therefores" etc.
The cost of Mr. Obama's trip is not $200-million Apparently these figures have simply been made up some Indian media person. The same person seems to have come up with the notion that US Security, unhappy because of the presence of a tall building along Mr. Obama's route to the Gandhi Museum, will lay down a 1-kilometer long above-ground tunnel, 12-feet wide and 12 high, for Mr. Obama's motorcade. The tunnel will be air-conditioned, and loaded with security devices. And it will be erected by US engineers in just one hour.
We have registered our disapproval on this with the White House. Why are these marvelous engineers reserved for work only overseas and during presidential visits? Don't we have enough infrastructure work right back home? This puts us in mind of the Kosovo intervention fiasco when US 1st Armored Division took a month to build an assault bridge across a river to permit crossing by US troops. Assault bridges are supposed to be erected in hours, dudes.
Incidentally, you may ask: if the concern is a sniper on top of the tall Bombay building can shoot down on the President's motorcade, why not just have the Prez use his armored limo? Aside from which there are several such limos in the motorcade, and no one on the outside knows in which the president travels. You may ask, but you won't get an answer from the originator of the rumor. S/he is having a great time putting one over the media. We can see the Indian media being taken in, they can be quite useless sometimes. But shouldn't Mr. Glen Beck have first gotten his fact-checkers on the job?
By the way, in our new incarnation of "abolish the Federal Government" or at least send it back to pre-1913, we object to the Prez taking any trips on the taxpayer's dime. Let the corporations the Prez is going to shill for pay for the trip. Also by the way, US Department of State budget for 2010 is $56-billion. Includes aid, of course, but who says it's right to take taxpayer money to send overseas?
Budget reduction idea of the day We learn from the Economist of July 17, 2010, that Finland spends $10-million on its census, or twenty cents a person. US spent $11-billion, or about $35/person. The reason is that Finland does not do a leather-shoe census. It compiles census data from the vast databases available, and does a random leather-shoe count as a precaution.
Now, we understand the US Constitution requires a leather-shoe count. But when this was mandated, apparently the first US Census cost $44,000, a bit over $1-million in today's money. We assume strict constitutionalists will have no problem with repeal of that provision. If we did our census for 20-cents a head, it would cost $60-million. So right there is a potential saving of $10-billion in the budget.
Caveat: our interest in cutting back the Federal Government is solely geared toward a debt free America. We have no ideological preference for small government or big government, though we must admit that it you accept the American vision of self-responsibility, Government should be a lot smaller.

November 5, 2010

Neither right nor left wasted a day in telling us its back to "Same Old"

On the right: Newly elected Senator Michelle Bachman (R-Minnesota). Pressed after victory to detail her plans for bringing the budget deficit under control, she repeatedly refused to provide specifics, saying only that Social Security needed to be adjusted by a few percentage so that it remains solvent. Ms. Bachman is not any Republican: she is a founder of the Tea Party, and if anyone should be taking eliminating the federal government seriously, it is her. We don't need to mention that inane ideas such as reducing the federal workforce by a few percent are in no way meaningful. We'd mentioned the other day that till 2001, federal employees per capita has steadily shrunk over the last 30 years; after 2001 several thousand were added because of the expansion of the military and homeland security.
On the left: President Barak Obama (D-USA) called for protecting tax cuts except for the very rich. There is talk of setting the threshold below which tax cuts will continue at $1-million.
As we explained yesterday, to balance the budget and pay the national debt in 30 years, we need to eliminate pretty much the entire federal government AND raise taxes by 50%.
Readers can draw their own conclusions. But on balance, it's probably wisest to assume we're simply going to kick the deficit and the national debt to our children, and let them worry about it. This would be entirely in line with the astonishing selfishness and destructive values of the Boomer generation. If the parents of the Boomers were the Greatest Generation, the Boomers have balanced the books by becoming the Worst Generation.

Why did we exempt Defense and Homeland Security from our reductions?

This question was verbally asked by someone who is so far to the right they believe that defense should be no more sacred than any other agency in the Federal Government. They believe - as did President Eisenhower, that the military-industrial complex - today we must add the media into that mix and extend "military" to homeland security - is as much a danger as an expansionist Federal Government, an activist Supreme Court, and a Congress hooked on debt.
The reason we left out that $850-billion of spending - 67% of the $1.2-trillion in taxes the Federal Government collects excluding social security/medicare taxes, which go back to the people, is just this: in America you have only to accuse anyone who wants to cut the defense budget (we include homeland security) of being "unpatriotic", and that person folds.
It's easy to say, as some far-left people say, that the defense budget is so high because of right winger. But this is wholly unfair. We've argued before that left or right, Americans support the immense defense budget. It is only extreme-right and extreme-right who object, and both these groups are fringe elements.
Now, if readers want, we can certainly produce an argument that the in a multi-polar world, the US should not feel the need to spend more than the next five nations combined, or around $300-billion. If we reduced spending to that level, we'd still be by far the most powerful nation in the world. We could knock $15-trillion off the national debt after eliminating the federal government. Then we'd need just a 15% increase in taxes to completely eliminate the national debt in 30 years.
But if we produced this argument, we'd be immediately labeled as far right, and then out of the five people who read this blog we'd have one remaining reader. The thing is - and we speak as right wingers - after 70 years of government propaganda, Americans have become completely militarized. We cannot conceive of a world in which we'd spend "only" as much as the next five biggest defense spenders combined.
But if you're willing to consider a defense/homeland security budget of "only" $300-billion, we're perfectly prepared to talk about it.

President Obama's India Visit

While rejecting costs estimates of $200-million a day for the President's India visit, the administration has not condescended to tell us what the cost is. Likely no one has done a real costing and you would get into some serious arguments about what to include under which category.
Nonetheless, thanks to articles sent by reader Luxembourg, we can tell you where the $200-million figure comes from. It's origin is a statement by an Indian official saying this is the figure he was given by the Americans. You can see all the problems in taking this as an accurate figure.
President Obama will not be protected by by 34 US warships including an aircraft carrier. There aren't 34 American warships in the Arabian Sea for one thing. For another, you don't use aircraft carriers for coastal surveillance,
But if someone said a total of 34 Indian warships including 2-3 from the US Navy will protect the President, we wouldn't rule out that figure, because it would include Indian Coast Guard vessels and Indian Navy patrol vessels and warships.
By the way: India is providing medically qualified personnel to function as food tasters as a security precaution. See http://www.hindu.com/2010/11/05/stories/2010110563861400.htm

November 4, 2010

Sandeep Unnithan of India Today has forwarded us three pages of names of persons given apartments in Bombay at the Adarsh Cooperative Building, the focus of the current scandal grabbing headlines in India. Please note that the lists are in Hindi, so if you don't read the language, they're no of no use.

US Election Same Old, Same Old We avoided comment on the US election because as far as we see, there will be no change. And how can there be? Let's take the budget deficit, which is the most pressing issue facing the US.
The Budget in two sentences In Fiscal 2010, the US budget was $3.6-trillion. Of this, $2.2-trillion was mandated by Congress, and $1.4-trillion was discretionary. The deficit was $1.6-trillion, so national taxes were $2-trillion. Of this, $820-billion is covered by Medicare and social security taxes, so taxes net of these two categories are $1.2-trillion.
Lets look at the discretionary first. Subtracting defense/homeland security etc, there was $550-billion left. So lets eliminate all departmental spending of the US Government, including HHS, State, Transportation, Commerce, Agriculture, NASA etc. etc. Savings so far: $550-billion; deficit $1.6-trillion. We haven't eliminated the deficit by eliminating all US government departments except those related to defense/security, but the deficit has taken one terrific whack. We're making progress.
Now let's look at the mandatory spending of $2.2-trillion. Lets eliminate Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and Income Security programs like unemployment and SSI.
Bam: $1.85 trillion gone! Of course, $820-billion of that is covered by Social Security/Medicare taxes, and with those spending categories gone, so will the taxes, So you have a trillion in savings from the mandatory spending. Phew! Long haul, but we're almost there. What's left in the mandatory budget? Approximately $350-billion. About $280-billion of that is interest on the debt and pensions. You can stop growing this liability, but you cannot eliminate it - you'd be defaulting on interest and pensions. Defaulting on interest will destroy the US dollar, pensions are not a gift from anyone, they are deferred earnings and they will have to be paid.
That leaves $70-billion, which we assume can be cut. We're not clear on where that money is spent, but let's let it go, wherever it is spent. AND...
OMG! We made it! We have eliminated the budget deficit! And we've lowered our tax bill to $1.2-trillion, putting $800+billion in the taxpayers' pockets!
Problema, Dudettes and Dudes We've put $800+billion in taxpayers's pockets, but we also took away the same amount of money they got in benefits. Net gain to America? Zero.
Further problem: since we're eliminating social security, Government has to pay back the money it took from you and me as social security taxes, and an equal amount to our employers. I estimate in the last 20 years I've earned $550,000, and my employers plus myself have paid $55,000 in taxes.
Now, I haven't been able to find out how much money would have to be refunded, but let's just assume 150-million people work, and that the average work-life is 40 years. So since some are finishing 40-years, and some are just starting, say 20 years worth of social security taxes have to be paid back for 150-million. If we assume $25,000/year is a typical income, then we have $50,000 for each of 150-million people to be paid back, half to us, and the other half to our employers. That's $7.5-trillion dollars. This is an extreme back-of-the envelope calculation, if you know better, please let us know.
Well, we already have a deficit of $14-trillion, so what the hey, lets add another $7.5-trillion to that by paying back the social security tax money. So we have a national debt of $22-trillion. Leaving aside the matter of interest, this money has to be paid back. Almost all of it has/would be accumulated in the last 30-years; we want to leave our children, so we should pay it back over 30 years.
The envelope, please! The above means $700-billion of fresh taxes every year for 30-years. Or, put another way, an increase of 50% in the federal taxes we pay.
But look at the converse: we've achieved the libertarian's dream of taking the federal government back to where it was prior to World War I. What's a mere 50% increase in federal taxes, to leave out children with a balanced budget and no national debt?
We leave it to those more familiar with American politics to work out how we're going to sell this to the people: there will be no more federal government worth a bucket of warm spit (is this correct metaphor?) except for national and homeland security. No more social security, unemployment, FBI, federal spending on interstate and national highways, medicare etc etc etc.
In the meanwhile, please excuse the Editor while he ponders a more achievable goal: how to get a date this Saturday night. And here's a math problem: since the chances of his getting a date are zero, and the problem of getting a date is easier than selling the above Responsible Americans program, the chances of the program ever being accepted is? Please send us your answers.

0230 GMT November 3, 2010

Taliban acquisition of AA systems

http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2010/11/the_taliban_acquisition_of_ant.php0230

President's India trip to cost $200-million People, we think we have as much of a sense of humor as the next gal or guy, but for some reason we are not laughing at a news item reader Luxembourg sends, estimating the President's India trip will cost the US taxpayer $200-million a day. http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/us-to-spend-200-mn-a-day-on-obama-s-mumbai-visit-64106 The President's party includes 3000 people.
Obviously the Prez has to get out and about. Editor is not right wing, Tea Party, or Libertarian or whatever, but $600-million for a 3-day visit to India? And likely each day in Asia will cost that much. That would add up to $2-billion. This is not reasonable by any measure.
In fairness, we don't know where India's NDTV got the figure. At the same time, an Indian media organization has no way to estimate what the trip will cost the US treasury. NDTV has gotten this figure from somewhere - its common in India not to attribute.
Britain, France to form joint expeditionary force says New York Times, reporting on the Cameron-Sarkozy summit. It will have 10,000 soldiers, airmen, and sailors. The Royal and French Navies' lone carriers are to be configured for joint air wings, in which the US will also participate.
The way the Euros are going, we are starting to think it will be best if they simply dissolve their armed forces and become pacifist. At most the major Euro powers, UK, Germany, France, and Italy, might want to each keep a division, a fighter wing, and 10 warships. This should enable them to reduce defense spending to a quarter of what is today, and will give them more deployable forces than they currently have. Germany, for example, cannot deploy more than a brigade overseas. The British can, but its becoming increasingly harder for them as they cut back. The French have nine brigades; the question has to be asked, for what? And how many of Italy's eleven brigades are actually deployable? we doubt even two. smaller Euro nations can focus on a brigade, a fighter squadron, and 3 warships each.
For details on what the new UK-France agreement entails, read http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/defence/8105134/Anglo-French-defence-treaty-at-a-glance.html
Letter from Patrick Skuza Upon penciling out your request for 5 billion dollars over ten years is unrealistically small in order to complete a modest HO scale layout. With the cost of a modern model of an engine now approaching the cost of an F 22 and a roundhouse and turntable the price of an aircraft carrier, I believe that you set your sights to low. Let alone if you model Indian broad gauge. That would require the resources of Northrop/Grumman and united technologies together to pull that off.
Reader Skuza has convinced us. These days it pays to be outrageous and unreasonable in placing one's demands on the US budget. We're reworking our request to the US Government.

Indian Air Force Update

Sparsh Amin

At the moment two more Phalcons are going to be bought with plans for five more later on. I expect that these will be bought in batches of two to three with progressively more advanced versions in each batch and that the older version would be upgraded to the latest standard when they come in for overhaul. Already, the third and final Phalcon of the current batch is supposed to be more advanced than the first two. Also, the first Phalcon squadron is on its way to achieve full operational readiness by the end of the year.
The Embraer based AWACS that you had mentioned is being developed by the DRDO. There have been several detailed TechFocus articles on the state of the project and the various technologies and subsystems that have been developed for it so far. The first airframe has been manufactured and is undergoing mechanical modification and testing in Brazil. The plans are to buy a first batch of three with a total of twenty in incrementally more advanced batches just like the Phalcons. I view these as complimentary to the Phalcons rather than mere gap fillers. The Phalcon's radar operates in the L-Band while the DRDO-AWACS's radar operates in the S-band - It may have a smaller range than the Phalcon but within that range it will generate more precise tracking information than the Phalcon due to the shorter wavelengths it operates on (As a general rule of thumb, for a fixed power level you will gain more precision at the cost of range as you go towards the shorter wavelengths of the S band from the longer ones of the L band).
Given the kinematic and seeker performances of modern missiles, the quality of tracking information that can be generated from a modern S-Band radar is sufficient for fire control purposes. A modern AWACS in the S-band opens up some very interesting tactical possibilities: I envision a future wherein a PAK-FA/FGFA can take completely passive long range missile shots from speeds of Mach-1.5+ and altitudes of 60,000+ feet - The Phalcon will be the first to detect and track the target at 400+ kilometers. It will then hand it off to the DRDO-AWACS at around 200 kilometers by which time a PAK-FA/FGFA formation would have been moved into a missile launch position. The DRDO-AWACS then passes the initial targeting information to the PAK-FA/FGFA which launches the missile and provides it with continual guidance updates from the tracking information it receives from the DRDO-AWACS. All this for a notional fighter sized target. And it need not be just the PAK-FA/FGFA that takes the shot, any other aircraft will do. I only picked it for the extreme speed and altitude combination it will give me.
All the pieces needed to do this are starting to fall into place. The only one on which there is very little information is the so called Operational Data Link that will glue everything together in the air. The ground based counterpart of the ODL is the AFNET (the Air Force Network) that became operational recently and together both will form the backbone of the IACCS (the integrated air command and control system). Each air command is to have one such system.
There is a lot of talk about the IAF's declining squadron numbers. The thing to keep in mind is that the IAF is in the midst of transitioning towards larger 20 aircraft fighter/strike squadrons: All squadrons raised from new inductions (ongoing and planned) and all squadrons with upgraded aircraft are 20 aircraft squadrons. The other thing to keep in mind is that the types being phased out (21-M/FL and 23-BN) have poor serviceability rates due to their age and their squadrons are understrength due to attrition. Between the two each squadron is reduced to an effective dozen or so aircraft. So yes, when two of these smaller squadrons with poor serviceability and obsolete aircraft are replaced by one larger Sukhoi squadron with high serviceability the IAF becomes "understrength" by one squadron but that fact hides more than it reveals. However, no one in the media is interested in going into the details. It is much easier to indulge in high pitched sensationalism than do any research. The IAF on its part is more or less fine with this as it helps them get more money out of the bureaucrats. Note that I am not saying everything is hunky dory - just that things should not be exaggerated out of proportion.
Talking of the Sukhois, Ajai Shukla has mentioned that two more Sukhoi squadrons are planned for the north-east: one at Hasimara and one at Bagdogra. This would bring the planned total to four. Currently there is one squadron based at Tezpur and one planned at Chabua. In the west the picture is somewhat unclear. There are Sukhoi squadrons based at Pune and Bareilly and planned at Halwara and Jodhpur. Around 130+ aircraft have been delivered so far to form six operational squadrons (2, 8, 20, 24, 30, and 31) and a seventh squadron is under raising. I know for sure that two of these squadrons are at Pune, one is at Bareilly, and one is at Tezpur. There might be a third squadron at Pune and a second squadron at Bareilly - as I said the picture is somewhat unclear in the west.

GMT November 2, 2010

Taliban overrun, then vacate Afghan district HQ after the police defected to the Taliban. This is in Ghazni Province in the southeast. The province lies between Kabul and Kandahar Provinces. We are not going to make any judgments here about the police. Even if they were inclined to fight, which they are not, since the Coalition can protect only a limited number of areas, for them to have stood their ground would be suicide.
In this case the defection of the 19 police manning the station was prearranged. The attackers got to burn down parts of the station and to loot vehicles and equipment. The police chief was not present, advertently or inadvertently.
The attackers took off before the Coalition counterattacked.
http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2010/11/taliban_storm_then_abandon_dis.php
US considering more active Yemen role says France's AFP. Specifically, US would station CIA hunter-killer teams in Yemen. The Pentagon says no one in DOD is thinking along those lines. Okay, but the CIA is not part of DOD last we heard, so the Pentagon denial means zero. And obviously the CIA is not going to commenting. Only way we'll know is if there are reports of increased UAV strikes in Yemen.
This move to step up US activity in Yemen is triggered by the attempt last week to bomb US air transports or Jewish synagogues in Chicago using bombs sent through the mail. At this point the public at least doesn't know what the targets were. All that has been said by UK authorities, AFA we know, is that if the bombs had exploded they could have brought down the aircraft carrying them.
There are those who oppose upping the stakes in Yemen because of potential backlash against the Government and West.
Meanwhile, a high Yemen government official, the deputy minister for finance, has said to CNN that if you don't give us money, there's going to be trouble with terrorists because we need to provide jobs, infrastructure, and services. He thinks $50-billion over ten years will do nicely.
So this takes us back to the question: is poverty the cause of Islamic terrorism? We thought it was ideology.
PS From Editor to US Government: while you're handing over money to Yemen, could you shovel a few bil in the Editor's direction? He's been wanting to resume construction on his model railroad, where progress is stalled for lack of funds. He's not thinking big: say $5-billion over ten years?
Letter to the Editor on the Bombay apartment scam and the role of senior military officers A reader requesting anonymity says we have it wrong on the role of senior military officers in the apartment scam we mentioned in yesterday's update. The reader says the senior officers who gave up their apartments are very much involved.
The role of the 3 chiefs involved should not be generalised and need to be studied in their individual capacities...NC Vij was a part of the conspiracy as he was in the chain of command for clearing the
file...the file was initiated by Tej Kaul, the kingpin of the conspiracy, as Sub Area Cdr..he came back on promotion within one year as GOC M&G Area, most unheard of to revert to the same station..the
file then moved to Pune - Lt Gen Sihota, a beneficiary, then to Delhi, VCOAS Lt Gen Shantanu Chaudhary, a beneficiary, and the COAS Gen NC Vij, a beneficiary...Admiral Madhvendra Singh was initially FOC-in-C
Western Naval Command and then CNS, a beneficiary for keeping his mouth shut evidently to raise no objections...the offer by the 3 ex Chiefs to return the flats, after pleading ignorance, is an attempt to avoid a probe into their scheming operation, accumulation of assets disproportionate to their income, and dereliction of duty.
Maj Gen Tej Kaul is the kingpin and his examination shall spill the beans...its a well orchestrated operation steered by him, facilitated by all who mattered in the Defence Services, the MOD, the civic agencies, the Defence Estate...read each of the names of 104 allottees and there is a link...the promoter/builder is an ex employee of the Defence Estate...every GOC down the line is a beneficiary...amazing!! I thought flats get booked within a few minutes of announcement of the scheme...how did it accommodate every GOC Mahrashtra and Gujrat Area for the period 1999 to 2010? (Bombay is part of the mentioned Army area).
This is the biggest scam as every agency is involved, signalling an institutional failure and needs to be addressed impartially and with urgency...the structure should be demolished, assets of each of the 104 allottees probed and appropriate action taken..as regards Defence Services officials, when pronounced guilty, should be stripped of their ranks, privileges and pension denied and put behind bars...the higher the rank the more stringent the punishment.
Editor's reaction was a heartfelt "oh dear". Here he thought the three service chiefs were displaying integrity in disassociating themselves from a project intended to built apartments for 1999 Kargil war widows which somehow grew from an approved six floors to 31 floors, and nary a war widow in sight. Editor hopes this is cleared up soon. Its terribly uncomfortable that senior Indian military officers are no more honest than their Chinese and Pakistani counterparts. The PLA, of course, is supposed to have ended its involvement in commercial/industrial/financial institutions/business, but that was the overt involvement.
Vegetables to Leh Another reader known to us but requesting his name not be used wonders when writing about the shenanigans in XIV Corps (Leh) why did we did not mention the fresh vegetables scam, which apparently is known to everyone but the Editor. The matter is simple. Indian troops deployed in the Siachin area suffer from acute constipation because of the cold and the high altitude (5000- to 6000-meters and even higher). So: obvious remedy, fresh vegetables. Before reaching the troops, these are siphoned off and openly sold in the Leh market.
Why are we discussing corruption in the Indian military services? We've often mentioned corruption in the Pakistan armed forces, which is relevant to the GWOT. When readers brought corruption in the Indian armed forces to our notice, we had no choice but to mention the matter. Incidentally, of several people who have written to us, formally or informally, on the Indian military corruption thing, every single one is Indian.

0230 GMT November 1, 2010

Haqqanis suffer 80 dead in attack on Coalition post, no Coalition KIA

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/10/isaf_haqqani_network.php

US to take another trillion dollar haircut That's the estimate by Business Week (October 25-31) of financial institutions' losses on account of being unable to provide documents as proof of ownership of houses they are seeking to foreclose. This is going to force a reduction of capital that banks and other institutions have built up thanks to the previous bailouts.
Business Week also says 1 of 5 mortgages in the US is in foreclosure or in danger of going into foreclosure. Politically, says the magazine, this is unacceptable.
So what does this mean? Another bailout, or are we going to let the financial system collapse and then let it rebuild itself on its own?
Some high-ranking Indian military officers do the right thing We mentioned how common corruption has become in the Indian military. Now, however, we get news of a different sort. Several retired military officers, including two former army chiefs and a former navy chief, learned they had unwittingly purchased apartments for their retirements in a property that was intended to benefit widows of soldier killed in the 1999 Kargil War.
What happened is this. The land was given at highly concessional rates to a building society to build the apartments. The society, using the influence of corrupt politicians and bureaucrats, sold the apartments to commercial buyers including senior officers. It said nothing about the apartments being reserved for war widows.
The Times of India found out about this scam and broke the story. The senior officers mentioned above immediately gave up their apartments. The Chief Minister of the state concerned, with whose knowledge the scam was created, was summoned to Delhi by the ruling party, to which he belongs. He is to be made an example of: he is to resign and possibly even face charges.
How this all comes out, we will have to wait and see. Meanwhile, the press, the military officers, and even the ruling party have done the right thing. Perhaps this will signal to other corrupt people that a line has been crossed and this will not be tolerated.
Kim II of DPRK deteriorating faster than expected says Japan's Asahi Shimbun, quoting ROK intelligence. The same source also says that a number of promotions made in recent days are to get Kim loyalists around the heir-designate, Kim III, to prevent concentration of power. We assume this means that Kim II's sister, who is the regent-designate, and her husband do not toss out Kim III on his father's death.
Russian military reorganization to complete by 2020 says Russia's ITAR-Tass Currently, Russia has 1-million service personnel, including 150,000 officers and 100,000+ NCOs. The percentage of modern equipment is 30%, to increase to 70% by 2015 and 100% by 2020.
Al-Qaeda Iraq seized Christian hostages in Baghdad, 37 dead AQI gunmen demanding the release of AQI prisoners seized a Baghdad church. By the time the Iraq authorities had ended the standoff, 25 hostages, seven security personnel, and five gunmen were dead.
India completes only 9 of 73 new strategic roads authorized in 2003 to meet the new China threat, says Sandeep Unnithan writing in India's biggest newsweekly, India Today (November 1 issue). Folks, no use having global aspirations if you can't get your strategic roads built. And no sense complaining about the Chinese. Life doesn't owe anyone anything. China is now the world's second largest economy not because it sat there and whined about how great it is and how it deserved for everyone to kiss its fat butt. Its worked hard to become economically strong so that it can buy a big stick and beat people into kissing its fat butt.
The article also says that Indian Air Force in 2007 told the Government it needs 44 squadrons to defend against Pakistan and dissuade China from attacking, and 55 squadrons to meet the combined offensive threat. The IAF is done to 32 squadrons. Personally we think the IAF is off into the wild blue yonder. 25 squadrons of modern fighters are adequate to take care of Pakistan with a comfortable margin of superiority. The problem is the 32 squadrons include several with obsolete aircraft like the MiG-21 and MiG-27. The resources are available in plenty. The mess-up has been created by pathetic civilian leadership and indifferent defense production.

0230 GMT October 31, 2010

Brazil strikes another giant oil field The Libra field may have 15-billion barrels of oil, eclipsing the 2008 king, Tupi, which is thought to have 14-billion barrels. The oil is 7000-meters below the surface of the sea: 2000-meters water and the rest rocks, sediment, and salt layer.
The world uses about 7-billion barrels annually.
Another shooting by foreigners of locals - and its not the US this time Chinese managers at a Zambia mine shot and wounded 11 miners participating in a demonstration over pay. This has resulted in cries of "China go home", but of course the Chinese are not going anywhere. They have no problem keeping Third World governments happy, and they are pragmatic. Suppose they were to get thrown out of Zambia by a change in government, the Chinese would simply do business with the new government.
But we will admit we were relieved to read of a shooting incident not involving the US.
Current backlog of India court cases will clear in 2340 says UK Telegraph. There are 31-million cases pending, but India has only 20% of the judges it needs. A novel special "People's Court" was recently held in Delhi, which in a marathon one-day session cleared up 100,000 cases.
Latest ABM test successful The Japanese Aegis destroyer Kirishima intercepted a target missile 100-nm above the earth, using a Standard 3 Block 1A missile. http://www.mda.mil/news/10news0016.html We're a bit surprised this did not get more attention. Perhaps the promixity to the Tuesday November 2, 2010 elections is responsible.
This was the fourth US-Japan test, and was numbered JFTM 4. All four have been successful.
And the test comes not a moment too soon Aviation Week and Space Technology reports that Iran has apparently given DPRK the technology for its 3000-4000/km BM-25 Musudan missile, and it is in operation in a road -launched version. The BM-25 is an Iranian version of the old Soviet SSN-6 SLBM.
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=defense&id=news/awx/2010/10/14/awx_10_14_2010_p0-262107.xml
For latest artillery developments in the PLA read http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_generic.jsp?channel=dti&id=news/dti/2010/10/01/DT_10_01_2010_p20-253841.xml&headline=PLA%20Makes%20Big%20Investments%20In%20Artillery
Minimal Indian gloating at Pakistan corruption ranking Pakistan's public sector has been ranked by Transparency International as the 34th most corrupt country in the word (143rd most honest of 178). India is 91st most corrupt (87th most honest of 178). There has been some gloating in Indian blogs, but as far as we've seen, it's muted. Being 91st most corrupt is better than being 143rd, but it's still very corrupt. One thing depressing Indians right now is the massive and open corruption of the government bodies involved in staging the Commonwealth Games.
Oh yes: before our American readers gloat: US is 156th most corrupt, or 22nd most honest of 178th. US ranks after Barbados, Qatar, and Chile.
Caveat: this is a "perception of corruption" index. It's not to be mistaken for an empirical study.http://www.transparency.org/policy_research/surveys_indices/cpi/2010/in_detail

0230 GMT October 30, 2010

The US Intelligence Budget, Osama and responsibility for the GWOT

We learn that what the US means by "civilian" spending on intel means spending by civilian agencies such as the CIA, not spending on non-military intelligence. So $80-billion is the total intelligence budget.
At this point we have to note that by itself the intel budget alone would be the second largest defense budget in the world, and we are forced to repeat what we read on a blog: "Wow! US spends $80-billion/year, and Osama paid for some plane tickets to do 9/11, and we haven't yet caught him."
Fair enough, that's what the term "asymmetric warfare" means. Why the US has fallen into the trap instead of doing its own asymmetric warfare is another question altogether that perhaps someone can take up.
Also, please note for two years Osama said he had nothing to do with 9/11. If he was really behind the whole thing, he should have been the first one to claim credit to show the world how terrifically clever he is. Sure, US says it has video showing he is excitedly waiting for news about a big strike. That is easily explained by his disciples telling him "We've done something really spectacular, its gonna be on the news, so watch this, Big Daddy".
So are we saying there's a US conspiracy? Not at all. US is simply taking advantage of the adage "give a man a bad name and then hang him". It's called propaganda, and it's a legitimate tool of war. OBL is a terrorist, why shouldn't the US throw mud at him?
But someday someone needs to go through the record and ask this question: "In a conspiracy it takes a lot of time to get to the bottom of it. How did the US so quickly find out OBL did the deed?" US says it has secret intelligence. Okay, fair enough. Editor has secret intelligence that OBL was not responsible.
Aha, says the US Government. We're credible and you're not. At which point editor has to say: "Ooooookay, if that's what you wanna believe, be my guest."
But then isn't Editor contradicting himself when he says there is no conspiracy? Not really. His information is the US, because it was in such an angry mood after 9/11 - you do not attack key symbols of US power - the WTC, the White House, the Pentagon, and expect America to calmly say: "We're ordering a through investigation into the affair" - that in its anger, connected several dots that were not connectable and made a rash, hasty decision OBL was to blame. After all, the man was already wanted, and wanted badly.
As to why US had to topple the Taliban to get OBL instead of quietly going and getting him, well, at this point you're getting mystical. Seriously. Meaning, who knows why the US made that decision. When OBL escaped why did the US decide it needed to rebuild Afghanistan in the west's image? That you have to ask Mr. George Bush, but we think it was the same missionary zeal that led him to use the flimsiest of reasons to attack Iraq. Mr. Bush really believed America has a mission to spread democracy, and he saw it as no contradiction to use war as a tool to achieve his objectives.
BTW: We completely supported the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, and in particular the overthrow of the Taliban, which is among the most barbarous regimes on earth. We still support the invasions. Our problem has been that the US has gone about matters in such a terribly foolish manner that the Bush objectives of overthrowing Iran and DPRK are now impossible, and that the US Government has gravely weakened America instead of strengthening it
So you're going to ask: "If OBL didn't do it, why after two years did he say he did?" Pardon Editor while he makes an analogy. Years ago someone told Editor: "we met your friend so-and-so and she was telling us how you were her first lover". Editor first said "Never met the lady so I can't be." The someone said: "We know you're a rouge, don't lie". At which point the Editor said "A gentleman never tells" and smirked. When someone is giving you credit - repeatedly - for something that enhances your stature in front of the people you care about, even the most honest person at some point stops denying it and takes the credit.
On December 7, 1941 the US, in an absolute fury about the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, counterattacked violently and in 45 months all but but wiped Japan off the map, and teamed with Britain and USSR to destroy Germany. There is a big biblical angle to the US's reaction and the punishment it inflicted. No eye for an eye, in 1941, it was "You punched me, I am going to kill you."
But, you see, at that time the US was dealing with enemy nation states and was willing to make any sacrifice to kill its enemy. Mr. George Bush had the immense bad luck that he was dealing with non-state actors who had no well-defined shape, and he didn't think the American people had to sacrifice anything.
That's one reason Americans have been so passive about Iraq and Afghanistan. Imagine if US was using - say - 60% of its GDP for the War on Terror. We sure would have asked questions many years back.
It's absolutely no sense blaming the Government for whats happened. The Founding Fathers knew that Government power had to be kept in check. The Government has been acting only as expected. One of the two checks is the Legislature, which we, the people, elect. The Legislature has completely abdicated its checking role in the matter of the GWOT. So whose fault is that? Its our fault, the people of the United States.
Letter on Israeli illegal immigration from Ramnagesh Iyer You had better pretend you had amnesia when you wrote those things about Israel and Jews on 28 Oct!
Many Israelis would probably drown themselves in the Dead Sea out of shame on being compared to the likes of Saudi or Pakistan. Israel, and their American backers see this state as a ‘democratic, secular and pluralistic’ one – a la Northern / Western Europe (minus the latter’s human rights ‘hypocrisy’ of course!). Except for the right-wing Jewish lobby, most Americans are firmly on the side of Israel because they believe this is not a battle between religious Zionists and religious Islamists; but between a secular democracy on one hand and despotic tyrants on the other. This is the reason they tolerate Israel’s gross human rights violations, war crimes and even risk antagonizing the entire Muslim world.
To be sure, the US has several despotic friends; and has had them all through history. Yet, in public discourse, these have been second-rung allies. Not quite the class of West Europeans. They have been allies just to safeguard economic (oil) and political (anti Iran for example) interests. But somehow Israel has been different - it has been a first-rung ally, sharing the same Western values of universal rights, freedoms and secularism.
So it must be quite a shock seeing this secular state perform religious profiling in such a blatant fashion.
Editor's response Perhaps readers who are better informed can correct the Editor on this, but as far as he knows (a) Israel's founders wanted it to be a secular state (b) non-Jewish Israelis have the same rights as Jewish Israelis; but (c) Israel was promoted by the United Nations as a Jewish homeland and sees itself as such. So the question arises, even though many Jews are not religious, how do you maintain a Jewish identity if you allow non-Jews to settle? Of course, we can question the legitimacy of the West's expatiation of the sins it inflicted on the Jews by creating a homeland in someone else's territory, and we can question the legitimacy of Israelis insistence that because they lived in the area once, they have a right to return. But that, we think, is a separate issue form the one under discussion.

0230 GMT October 29, 2010

Bill Roggio disagrees that AQ Afghanistan is being crippled by US UAV Strikes

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/10/analysis_al_qaeda_ma_1.php

The Turis of Pakistan don't like the Taliban (either flavor) and have been fighting to keep them out of their area in Kurram, North West Frontier Province, particularly the Haqqanis, who are not Nice People.This is because the Turis are Shia, the Taliban are Sunni, no love lost. Taliban asked for free passage through Kurram, which lies close to Kabul. Turis have said "Fuggedabhatit", i.e, No. I.e., the Turis are helping US/NATO.
So to be helpful to the US in it's turn - we're allies, aren't we - the Pakistan Army has blockaded the Turis, closing passenger and goods traffic to their area. Pakistan army says it has done this because "sectarian" clashes have taken place and it wants to keep outside troublemakers out.
What is the US doing? As usual, sucking on lollipops and admiring the view. I.e., nothing. Expect the usual statements from General Petreaus and Admiral Mullins about how much the Pakistanis are helping the US in fighting the Taliban.
It is stories like these that drive the Indians completely crazy, and make them ask "is the US really our ally?" Obviously, India does not want the Taliban to win in Afghanistan, and as far as India is concerned, US is perfectly comfortable with Perfidious Pakistan (used to be Perfidious Albion back in the day - oops, Editor's age is showing).
So you can appreciate why reader Sanjith writes to us In another two weeks time Obama, also called OM Baba, and his gracious wife will be in India. Unlike Clinton or Bush, the public feels, nothing great about him, nor will he receive a full hearted reception. He will talk big things about the Mahatma, our democracy and our ethos.....BUNKUM AMERICA.... WE the 20 year olds who work in BPO`s of Bangalore know you Americans much more than Manmohan Singh. We who work night shifts in India, selling you guys everything from credit cards to repairing laptops online, know how smart you guys really are and what you think of us.
The reason, India has achieved nothing by cosying up to America. Obama wants us to purchase US armaments and want us to open our retail sector to Walmart. There has been literally no change in the transfer of dual use high technology, the Indian space effort also has not received help either, the Chinese have transferred nuclear reactors to Pakistan, and Americans have closed their eyes and that will help Pakistan make more bombs than India does. So please go back to your favorite Pakistan than coming to India.

WE ARE FED UP WITH YOUR HYPOCRISY.

Okay, from an American viewpoint reader Sanjith is being too harsh. The US believes that without transit rights through Pakistan it cannot fight the war, and whatever cooperation Pakistan is giving in holding back the Taliban is better than an all out support of the Taliban.
Again, okay. But reader Sanjith could ask the Editor: "How are you making sense? US is paying Pakistan while its proxies kill Americans/Coalition/Afghanis and undermine US objectives in Afghanistan. Is this even legal back in the US, because doesn't supporting the Taliban make Pakistan an enemy of the US? Whoever heard of helping your enemy to kill you? And why is the American public not objecting?
At this point, of course, Editor would have to stage a graceful withdrawal He would have trouble explaining why the US is doing this. Because at least to the Editor, none of this is making any sense. Perhaps General P or Admiral M could explain? Editor at times gets confounded at the immense sophistication of US foreign and military policy. Back in Iowa, when we discuss the question of how the US is making sense, we soon give up, sighing "What do we know, after all, we're from Iowa."
US $2-billion arms package for Pakistan which has been recently approved includes 30 more Bell 412s and EW equipment. Some AH-1Z attack helicopters may be sold as Pakistan needs to replace its AH-1Fs, and the US has so far refused to transfer AH-64s. The arms package is spread over five years. Pakistan has asked for more M109 SP and M198 howitzers, both 155mm.
US says it spend $80-billion on intelligence of which $53-billion is non-military, making it a 2-1 split between non-military and military. The intel community is approximated at 100,000 personnel.
Naturally this makes us curious: what is the US spending the $53-billion on? Commercial and law enforcement intelligence? $53-billion seems an awful lot to spend on that. Our suspicion is that the $53-billion covers for a lot of military spending.
We are also curious: does this figure include the individual services' intelligence arms and the Home Land security intel spending, etc.?
Quite clever of the US, the release of this figure is going to confuse the heck out of everyone.

0230 GMT October 28, 2010

Israel's illegal refugee problem You're not alone is you are surprised that a state so security conscious as Israel has illegal refugees. We took were taken aback. But Haaretz of Israel says a thousand illegals arrive in Israel every month, many across the Egyptian border.
Israel is willing to pay African countries to take these illegals. There don't seem to be many takers, and so Israel is constructing a barrier along its Egypt border, on a high priority.
Critics say that a state founded by refugees has no moral right to bar refugees. We honestly wish people would not have these knee jerk responses to difficult questions left, centrist, or right.
Israel is a state founded by refugees. 100% correct. But it is a state founded by Jewish refugees, as a place where Jews could finally be free from the oppression they experienced for two thousand years.
We can argue, and Orbat.com certainly does, that the solution to this issue should not have been to dispossess others who have lived on the land for two thousand years. The modern state that did more to oppress the Jews than any other was Germany, and since the refugees were fleeing the Nazis all over Europe, Israel should have been carved out of Germany.
But that said, it makes no sense to argue that Israel is a refugee state and therefore must accommodate all refugees. Israel has looked for people with any Jewish connections anywhere in the world and offered them a new home. If you accept the legitimacy of Israel, then you should not find it difficult to accept the Israeli government is only doing its job by keeping out non-Jewish refugees.
BTW, people have no problem with other sectarian states, Saudi Arabia or Pakistan, for example. So why pick on Israel?
On doing no evil we learn from Business Week that for the past three years, Google has been paying an effective tax rate of 2.4% of its profits. It's all completely legal. Google sells ad space from Ireland. Google Ireland gets intellectual property from Google USA at a low price (legal). It takes the ad money and sends it Google Netherlands (legal) avoiding Irish taxes. From Netherlands it sends the money to the Dutch Caribbean (legal). Google pays no tax in the Caribbean (legal). Approximately $60-billion/year in taxes is lost
Now, if you and I did that, we'd be likely looking at some serious time as a guest of the US Government. But a corporation doing it, that's okay. The IRS tried to get the rules changed to make Google and other tech companies who use the same dodge (Business Week mentions Apple, IBM, Microsoft) pay proper taxes. Congress told the IRS to back off. Wunner what made Congress intervene. Not.
Almost makes one want to vote for the Tea Party.
On the free market versus government Some people want to have the government do less and leave more to the free market which is supposed to more efficient. Okay. Will someone tell us where this free market in the US is? We look around and all we see a very tight cooperation between the government and business. That's two legs of a traditional fascist state. The missing leg is the church, but some will argue in the US we've replaced the church with TV. In fairness, many who want the government to do less recognize that government subsidies to corporations must end, as much as government subsidies to people.
We like the idea of a relatively low rate for personal income taxes, bit the elimination of all allowances. Editor in particular would lose the mortgage and educational deductions, but would make it up if the tax rate were lowered, say 10%-15%-20%.
But the same thing should apply to corporations. Every single last deduction should be eliminated.
Incidentally, we learn when US permanently introduced the income tax in 1913, the tax threshold was $3000. But only one percent of the earners in the country made more than that.
Department of Dirty Tricks By now we have all read about the enormous inflow of anonymous money to election candidates, mostly Republican. Conservative columnist George Will calls this an exercise of free speech, which is an oxymoron. If I want to exercise my right to free speech - which I do - I pay $600/year to Darkscape and to RCN. That's not free. If I want to exercise my free speech on a national level, it would cost me - say - $10-million annually. Not so free, either. The only thing that's free is if I take my soapbox, put it in on my front lawn, and harangue my neighbors and school children as they pass by. At which point, of course, I am arrested for creating a public nuisance even though I am on my own property, and for creating an intimidating gauntlet which the school kids must run.
But that's not our point. Now we learn from Reuters that Democrats are returning the Dirty Tricks favor. They are supporting Tea Party candidates as a way of drawing votes from the GOP. Cunning lot. http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE69Q4XS20101027
All's fair in love, war, and politics you might say. Please take war out of that equation: war has rules. They may be violated more than they are observed, but there are rules.

0230 GMT October 27, 2010

Mr. George Clooney and Sudan

Recently the actor Mr. George Clooney called for US intervention in Sudan, in the form of policing a no fly zone between North and South. Before commenting, our standard disclaimer: we accept Mr. Clooney is a person of good heart, and has every right to be concerned about the deteriorating situation between North and South Sudan, and has every right to advocate for South Sudan.
One minute capsule history of the issue Sudan, like much of Africa, had its national boundaries formalized by the colonial power. Meaning the boundaries make no sense to the people who live there. The North is Muslim, the south is Christian, and the two have been at it for decades. Bloody civil war, no one in their right mind wants anything but to see the issue resolved. In 2005, under international pressure, the North agreed to autonomy for the South and a referendum on independence, by 2010. Since the South has oil, the North is understandably reluctant to let the south go, agreement or not. Both countries have been sharing oil output almost 50-50.
South and North are arming for a renewal of hostilities. In the event war resumes, the South will be vulnerable to the North's air force. Thus Mr. Clooney's suggestion of a no-fly zone.
Correct sentiment, wrong prescription However worth the cause, absolutely the wrong thing for the United States will be to get involved in yet another local quarrel. This will cost money which we don't have. Further, something people in the US don't appreciate, each time you get involved in an overseas quarrel, there are subtle and not-so-subtle blowbacks. Extending the use of military force strengthens the culture of militarism, which has led the US to believe if there's a problem, send in the B-2s and then there's no problem. The notion that maybe we don't have the capacity to solve the world's problems is something alien to the US psyche.
Once upon a time, long, long ago, in a galaxy far, far away maybe we did have the power to smack everyone into line. In 1945 the US had 45% of the global GDP, and what for simplicity the Editor calls the "Three Hundreds": one hundred divisions, 100 aircraft carriers, and 100,000 combat aircraft. Today we have 10 divisions, 10 aircraft carriers, and 10,000 aircraft if we count every last prop trainer. Oh yes: in 1945 the UN had fifty members, today it has 200. There were about 2-billion in the world, now there's 7-billion. Guerillas could not stymie the armies of great powers because the great powers were ruthless, and were willing to kill as many people as it took to finish the guerillas. Mentally and moral a much tougher bunch than today's metrosexuals.
We need to resolve our own problems first Today America is a deeply wounded nation that is literally falling apart - look at the infrastructure in the US versus Western Union, Japan, and even China, and you'll get the point. We are a dysfunctional nation: for example, we mentioned a study the other day that says the US spends twice as much on health care as other industrial nations and yet we are at the bottom in terms of health care indicators. We have an effective 16% unemployment rate, some say its actually twice that. We have a higher percentage of people in jail than did apartheid South Africa and the modern Soviet Union. We have an out of control trade imbalance and as for the deficit, please lets not talk about it or else none of us will get a restful night's sleep. Will readers concede we have made our point so we don't have to go hammering it further? Thank you.
Interventionists, liberals, and conservatives The political debate in the US has grown so senseless that labels no longer mean anything. Take a simple example, US wars since 1945. Korea, Gulf I, Gulf II, and Afghanistan were conducted under Republican administrations. Vietnam was begun by two democratic presidents, and then vastly expanded by a Republican. So you say, the old labels that said liberals got the US involved in foreign wars is no longer true or even relevant. It doesn't matter if you are left or right, there is a significant section of the American elite that is pro-interventionist. Used to be the right intervened because of national security and liberals intervened because they wanted this a better world, but the person who decided the US had to remake the world in a democratic image was a Republican, Mr. George W. Bush. He is the first person to define US security interests so broadly that the state can justify a perpetual war.
Now, as far as we are concerned, whether you intervene to offset a perceived security threat, or to bring democracy to the world, or to better the lives of people overseas, this is, all of it, intervention.
We cannot afford intervention of any sort This means military, political, or civil. It means sending combat aircraft to Sudan to enforce a no-fly zone is an intervention, bringing democracy to Afghanistan is an intervention, giving aid to Israel or a hundred countries around the world is intervention. We can't afford it.
It does not matter that Project X costs "only" a $100-million a year or a $1-billion a year. It is misleading and playing false with data to say: We have a $14-trillion economy, how can we say we don't have $100-million to feed the victims of Pakistan's floods?
That's true, $100-mi is nothing. But when you add this hundred mil here and that one bil there, you get a whacking great sum of money which is needed right at home. The obvious example is the near $200-billion we spend on Iraq and Afghanistan. You have to draw the line somewhere, and its time we drew the line at zero.
Take a hundred million dollars. suppose you were to give that to businesses, big or small, who used it to create new jobs, assuming that a job costs $300,000 to create and that $1 of seed money generates $3 total capital, $100-million, which is nothing in itself, means that a thousand people could be out to work. Assume a multiplier of 3, three thousand people get to work. (Our figures are purely illustrative - please feel free to use your own.) Well, three thousand new jobs could make a heck of a difference to a poor county. And instead of us paying to keep those people from destitution, they'd be productive citizens paying taxes which could be used to pay down the debt.
The moral question of whose money is it anyway These days, Orbat.com seems to be read by a goodly number of social conservatives, libertarians, and the like. Or perhaps they are the ones who write to us. Now while personally we see a major role for government in creating infrastructure, paying for R and D, or any activity that generates jobs and therefore wealth, in fairness to the political debate of today, we have to bring up the point of "Whose money is it anyway?" If we don't do this, we are not being objective, and that is not right. If we weren't willing to be fair, we should have to put up a banner at the top saying: "Read on your own responsibility, this blog has a fixed position which it pushes."
People have repeatedly written to us to say: "Look, you want universal health care, go ahead. Spend your dime on it. Why are you forcing me to spend my dime?"
So similarly, whereas we want the government to stop wasting money overseas and to - say - give money to innovative American battery manufacturers so that we can retake our lead in this vital 21st Century technology, many of our readers would say: No. That is not the government's role.
We might say: Without this technology we'll fall behind the rest of the world and that will cost us jobs. Our readers might respond: That isn't the point. Just as universal health care redistributes money from haves to have nots, government subsidies - agriculture, industrial, social, whatever - also redistribute wealth by government fiat and that is not the role of government.
We may differ, but our objective is the same If America is going to cut government spending, then everything has to be on the table, including defense and foreign aid. If it's not right to provide universal health care to our own people, it's also not right to send money to Pakistan or a hundred other countries. Just as some will say: those 80% of us who have health care did not create the situation where 20% don't, we can say that the failures of the Pakistan Government - or Government X, Y, Z - have nothing to do with us.
Yes, we can say: Oh, but the US is a global oppressor and exploits the poor and so on and so forth. That again takes away responsibility from individuals, and places it on the Big Bad Wolf. According to these theories, no one in the world is responsible for anything, a handful of dead white males are responsible for everything.
Well, maybe, maybe not. Here's a thought experiment: could this country have been founded on the assumption that the Brits were responsible for our condition and must spent the next thousand years paying us reparations?
Maybe you could found such a country. You couldn't, however, call it America.

0230 GMT October 26, 2010

Taliban's Rest & Recreation Areas in Pakistan

http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2010/10/kohistan_chitral_are_quiet_hav.php

Corruption in the Indian Army Mandeep Bajwa says there is nothing exceptional about the fraud shenanigans in XIV Corps. He says this nonsense is happening all over the Army. Salaries have taken a big jump, but politicians have become so openly corrupt, he says, that ethical standards in public life have plummeted.
Another factor might be the very high private sector salaries. The Army Chief gets ~$2200/month plus enormous perks which likely substantially exceed the salary. But any competent mid-level manager in the private sector is getting that salary, admittedly without most of the perks. The thing with perks is you can't save them or spend them. So the Army Chief gets a beautiful bungalow in the heart of New Delhi, and this is probably worth more than 3-5 times in rent than he gets as salary. But after he retires, what good does it do him to have that great bungalow? He can't take it with him.
$12-billion upgrade to Guam military bases This includes relocation of 3rd Marine Division from Japan. It's all driven by China, says UK Telegraph at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/australiaandthepacific/guam/8085749/US-to-build-8bn-super-base-on-Pacific-island-of-Guam.html
This is all very sweet of the US and all that but has anyone noticed the US naval equivalent of a line of no penetration has within one generation shifted 3000-km east? The US naval "border" used to be Philippines-Japan. Yokohama-Subic Bay were the anchors of that line. Guam was just a way station that got a bit more importance during Second Indochina because it was home to the B-52s. Now suddenly Guam is going to become the lynchpin of our forward defenses in the Pacific?
Does anyone see a problem here? Oh, sorry, of course there is no problem. We're the world's sole superpower and of course we can work with China. La-la-la, I can't hear you!!
Richard Holbrooke says Iran has legitimate interests in Iran So it now emerges every now and then the Iranians hand over a bag full of cash to a very anti-American advisor of President Hamid Karzai's. Not to worry says our good buddy Hamid, its foreign aid, and its all transparent and above board.
So then Mr. Holbrooke has to pitch in. He says he hopes that the "aid" will not impact negatively on Afghanistan, but he recognizes Iran has legitimate interests in Afghanistan.
Perhaps words have no impact in life, but what Mr. Holbrooke has done is basically sanction Iranian interference in Iraq. Because if Iran has legitimate interests in Afghanistan, which is the back of beyond and in the global scheme of things as important as Tahiti, it sure has very major, very legitimate, and very urgent interests in Iraq.
Perhaps we were brought up differently, but handing over sacks of money does not appear to us to be transparent or legitimate. Particularly when the man getting the money hates America and backs Iran all the way. Nothing shows the powerlessness of today's United States better than Holbrooke's statement.
Remember Daniel Patrick Moynihan and his 1993 "Defining deviancy Down"? What was previous considered deviant behavior (we are not talking about child molesting perverts, Mr. Moynihan meant it as deviating from the norm) becomes the new normal, and then what is considered deviant becomes another new normal, while we frantically race to the bottom. Thus it is with Mr. Holbrooke's statement.
So what's next? We invite Iran to the "peace" talks in Afghanistan? We ask Iran's advice on Afghan problems? In our anti-Government mood of the day do we contract out Afghanistan to a private company, i.e. Iran, and let them handle the problem?
Don't Want To Pay Taxes? Domicile in Pakistan Dawn of Karachi reports that Pakistan has one of the lowest rates of tax as a percentage of GDP anywhere in the world" 10%. That presumably includes excise and sales taxes. (If you develop a business helping Americans resettle in Pakistan, please remember Editor came up with this idea first. Expect to be sued, even though the Editor has done nothing more than sit on his tush and suggest the idea.)
Correction re US12 Reader Flymike, who actually lives near the road, says it is a National Highway, not a Federal highway. We were using the term "national" and "federal" interchangeably. Reader Flymike says the road is maintained by the state, which is accurate, as the Federal government maintains few roads. Of course, the Federal government gives Idaho money for US12. Our point was simply that people in one part of a state cannot say take the attitude "we are bothered by the proposed traffic on this road and will do our best to stop it" when they use a road that is paid for by the Federal Government and, as Flymike says, by the state.
The couple taking the lead in preventing the transport of mining gear to Canada for a tar-sands project are also on record on saying they are nice people, but not when a big oil company is involved. Great. May we suggest they not use the products of big oil companies in that case? So what is it they want: their oil should be mined and refined locally? That'll be nice - assuming there is oil. Then the people along US12 can having mining and refining next to them, and maybe the people who are being affected by tar sands projects in Canada can breathe a sigh of relief because there will be less damage to their environment. And the good people of US12 might also like to consider getting the US Government to stop oil imports from West Africa, where massive damage is being caused by the world's relentless demand for oil.
Americans have to stop acting crazy. If they won't, we have a solution: Give every citizen their 7-8 acres of land (total US land area divided by population) and let everyone run their own country in their own territory. People who want to cooperate can merge their land. But wait - isn't this how countries were formed in the first place?
In editor's immediate neighborhood - like 50-meters down the street - in the last 15 years he'd had to sit quietly while one public school was rebuilt - including cutting down dozens of old trees, and one remodelled/expanded. You bet it was heck of a nuisance: noise, dust, construction equipment and large trucks blocking our narrow residential streets etc. Of the students in the two schools, perhaps a dozen live on the 5-6 streets directly impacted. The rest come from "outside". So should we all have gone to court to stop the mess? Where are the kids supposed to go to school? 30-kilometers offshore where no one will be troubled?
Might add that every school day its a mess trying to get in and out of the neighborhood (Hodges Heights) because of the school buses and parents/teachers using cars. We have traffic jams right outside our houses. Should we be litigating to stop this?

0230 GMT October 25, 2010

That smile on Rummy Rumsfeld's face must be because of the news that in Baghdis Province of Afghanistan, using special forces alone, the US is knocking off Taliban leader after Taliban leader. Before Rummy got a truckload of egg on his face due to the complete mess in Iraq - and yes, he is also much responsible for the failures in Afghanistan, he had this idea: an army of 60,000 special forces, backed by airpower and vast signal processing capabilities, should be enough to defeat any army. The 60,000 are there to find and designate targets, the airpower destroys them.
What Rummy did not figure at the time, was that ground needs to be held. And that is the problem with Baghdis. The Taliban leadership is fleeing to other places, the rank-and-file are into the "there's no one here except us meeces" mode. Theoretically the Afghanistan Government should now fill the vacuum, but as we have seen again and again and again (10^100 "agains") the only vacuum the Afghan Government is filling is their bottomless wallets.
So again, we have success as defined by the Americans - and a very nice success too, but which ultimately means nothing.
The other problem is that the Taliban will react re. their communications security. Right now everyone seems to have gotten terribly lazy, depending on their satphones and so on. How much more comfy it is to be sitting in a nice house surrounded by friends and family, issuing orders, than to be out there disguised as ordinary peasants and delivering messages and orders by hand. At some point the Taliban have to wise up and then it becomes a different game.
We say this without prejudice to the impressive work being done by US forces.
We now comment on the Israeli-Palestine peace talks We are very considerate of our readers and try and spare them rubbish news. That is why, ours may be the only national security blog that has made no mention of the several months of peace talks between the Palestinians and the Israelis.
The day the talks were announced, everyone knew they were going to fail because as far as the Israelis are concerned, the only thing to be discussed is where the Palestinians are to put their signature officially accepting their subjugation to Israel.
So whose idea were these peace talks? US. May we suggest that the public demand all senior officials involved be made to pay back to the Treasury the money they have wasted? This is the only way to stop such foolishness in the future. We need to balance the budget, people, we can't waste any more money, even if it was just a few tens of millions.
Indian Army Chief says Pakistan N-weapons are safe an Indian Okay, that's nice, but the only way the Indian Chief can know the warheads are safe - he said that Pakistan had made "unusual" arrangement after global concerns - is that the Americans have told him. Whether he should accept American assurances is another issue.
And how would the Americans know about the "unusual" arrangements. Well, they're part of the arrangements. That's how they know.
So is there nothing to worry about? It's at this point we remind readers that what do we know, we're from Iowa.
http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/world/12-pakistans+nukes+safe+says+indian+army+chief--bi-05
An unusual thing about the Indians They agreed to let 40,000 Chinese workers work on infrastructure projects in India because they had the needed skills and the Indians didn't. India and China are not exactly Best Friends Forever and all that, in case anyone has noticed. After a big hue and cry about Chinese workers taking away Indian jobs, 25,000 have had their visas revoked. But 15,000 are still working in India.
This is a bit like the US permitting 40,000 Soviet workers to work in the US during the Cold War.
Meanwhile, for those of us Indians who are in danger of getting nosebleeds because the Indians are being so virtuous, Orbat.com is happy to assure that things are quite as usual back home. The Jammu and Kashmir police found local merchants selling gear and supplies meant for the troops in Siachin. The police launched an investigation, arrested over 30 people, and told HQ XIV Corps (Leh) that they, the police, needed to talk to people in the corps. With a fine sense of public relations, HQ XIV Corps told the J and K police to get lost. So the police went to the media, and also to Army HQ. Army HQ has opened an enquiry and Leh Corps to explain what's going on.
Black marketeering is rampant in every army. If you doubt us, check out the baazars in Baghdad and Kabul. Our favorite story, of course, remains the 2-million cans of hairspray that arrived in Saigon at a time there were ~60 Army nurses in-country.
Nonetheless, it's a bit outrageous for Corps to be stealing supplies including rations and cold weather gear meant for troops in an operational zone.
By the way, what is with this corps? Five officers have been charge sheeted by the local police for replacing petrol with water; the officers include a brigadier and a light colonel. The Siachin thefts involve a colonel. And a major-general is facing charges of sexual harassment.
BUT: to give credit where credit is due. Times of India reports a land scam that has benefited several senior officers http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Top-generals-babus-netas-in-land-grab/articleshow/6805880.cms But how did this scam come to light? Honest officers and bureaucrats disclosed the alleged wrongdoing, and apparently have even given information to the media.
Indians are apathetic about corruption because they feel "What can we do? The big people get away with everything, we have no power." Thanks to the liberalization of media, it's no longer true that little people do not have power.

0230 GMT October 24, 2010

How Pakistan is protecting the Haqqanis

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/10/siraj_haqqani_shelte.php

As always, we'd like readers to appreciate we are neither moralizing nor condemning Pakistan. We understand why protecting the Haqqanis and supporting the Taliban is in Pakistan's national interest. But we are permitted to say that US and Pakistan national interests re the Taliban are quite different, and nothing the US has said or done so far has changed that for Pakistan.
All we wonder is do Americans understand there is an unbridgeable gap here? For America the Taliban is an enemy. For Pakistan, it is a vital tool of national security. The Pakistanis are quite happy to cut the Taliban loose and to stop interfering in Kashmir. All they want in return is iron-clad American security guarantees that America will protect Pakistan against India, and America's help in getting the Indians to give up their part of Kashmir to Pakistan.
Editor has done an assessment of what a security guarantee for Pakistan means from the Pakistani side. Aside from acceptance of Pakistan nuclear weapons and their continued development as a last line of defense should the US not come to Pakistan's help in the event of a war with India, right now Pakistan will require 150 F-16s (new, please), eight surface warships, 6 submarines, and sufficient top of the line ground equipment to mechanize six Pakistani infantry divisions. Plus MR patrol aircraft, helicopters, attack helicopters, transports, UAVs, advanced SAMs, signals and EW equipment etc etc., and a $3-billion annual subsidy to Pakistan's defense budget for O and M of the new stuff. Sorry - we forgot Standard 2 and Standard 3 for ABM defense.
Depending on how one calculates this, its somewhere around $25- to $30-billion of equipment.
Oh yes, please note we said "right now". Obviously India will react with a counterbuildup. Five years down the line the list will have to expanded, starting with tasty lollipops like the F-35.
At this point, we realize that the US Government and Congress and so on will be rolling on the floor with laughter. Aside from the enormous sums of money, is Editor seriously suggesting that the US give up its ties with India?
Please roll away. But make up your mind: do you want Pakistan to withdraw all support from the Taliban or don't you? If you do, we've stated their price. Sure they'll take a lot less, but then they'll keep supporting the Taliban and there is nothing, absolutely nothing, the US can do about it.
And no, we are not advocating the US give Pakistan what it wants, including abandoning ties with India. We are only saying this is what the Pakistanis want as their price for walking away from the Taliban. The US needs to raise the ante or fold. The ante cannot be in the form of assuming the US can bash, bully, bomb Pakistan into compliance. Or does the US Government really think Pakistan is the same as Serbia?
We know raising the ante in a manner that satisfies Pakistan is impossible for the US. In that case, US should understand it had better fold and walk away.

0230 GMT October 23, 2010

Yeh Hai Amreeka, Meri Jaan That gibberish translates in North Indian vernacular as: "This is America, my heart". A New York Times times story tells how residents of Idaho are fighting to stop oil-shale production equipment from using a two lane road, US12, along which the megaloads will move enroute to Canada. The equipment is coming from the Far East to the Port of Vancouver, where it will be transported by barge to Idaho.
The problem is not the weight of the loads - 300-tons in some case, but the width. The loads will require both lanes. So the oil companies will pay for cut-outs where loads can get off the road. This will permit rolling closures of the highway. The companies will move only at night.
But two residents who have taken the lead in litigating to stop the companies, say that what if an emergency vehicle needs to use the highway at a time it is temporarily blocked.
Now, we'd have to do a detailed study to tell you how many residents are impacted, but US12 passes through northern-central Idaho and northern Montana. The states combined have a population of 2.5-million, and we cant imagine it will be more than a few hundred thousand people.
The other route for the loads is via the Panama Canal and US Gulf ports, where presumably they will travel by barge and then by road to Canada. This route adds several thousand miles with the consequent expense.
Now, we have no gripe with the good folk of Idaho. Yes, we do object to their determination to "control" wolves, but we figure, what the hey, even if most of the land in the region is owned by the Federal Government, we don't live there.
All that we're saying is that the equipment is required to produce 1-million-barrels/day of oil from tar sands, and the recipient of the oil is the United States. We wholly appreciate the desire of folks to keep their environment pristine and so on, and we understand their objections. At the same time, we have a very serious objection to the United States government spending a couple of hundred billion dollars a year to ensure the safety of its oil interests overseas and of its oil lanes. the sole purpose of which is to provide an enormous subsidy to US oil users. If oil were priced at its true cost to the US, its possible it could even reach $10/gallon. But that would cut usage drastically, so you wouldn't need the Canadian tar sands and you'd take a whopping bite out of oil imports.
What's that I hear you say - $10/gallon petrol is unacceptable because it will destroy the American way of life? One can agree that over the short term, 10-20 years, it will - not destroy, but cause serious problems.
But you see, you can't have the American way of life, and protect the environment, and spend two hundred billion extra dollars a year to keep oil flowing from overseas. We use 20-million barrels of oil a day, half for transportation, and two-thirds comes from imports (including Canada and Mexico). Reducing oil imports by 3-million-barrels a day would free us of the Mideast forever, and that entire place could be left alone to go into the desert and do unpleasant things to the goats and the camels.
So here are our proposals. If the good residents of Idaho are truly concerned with the emergency use of US12 and are not actually fighting to block the tar sands project, the oil companies, which are paying for improvements to US12 so they can haul their loads, can easily use medevac helicopters for use when the road is closed, and bear the cost.
If the good people of the US want to protect the environment and don't want offshore drilling, exploitation of onshore natural gas, and exploitation of shale/tar sands, let us raise oil prices to their true cost and drastically reduce oil price that way as a first step, and let us redesign our communities to minimize the use of vehicles. And if we want to protect the environment, let us follow policies to reduce the rate of population growth and then reverse it.
But if we are going to sit here and say "this impacts our way of life and that impacts our way of life and we can't do this because it isn't the American way and we can't do that because we're republicans/Tea Party/ Democrat/Socialist" or whatever, what we're going to get is a non-functional America. Right now its just dysfunctional. Soon it will be nonfunctional.
By the way, we don't want to rub it in, but the "US" in US12 means it is national, not an Idaho, road. Lets first total up the subsidies the good people of Idaho/Montana get from the Federal Government, which means the rest of the taxpayers of the US. Then let's talk about your emergency vehicle problem.

0230 GMT October 22, 2010

Only 2 of 30 Japanese rare earth importers get any shipments from China in the past 4 weeks, and the Chinese are seeking to break existing Japanese contracts. Meanwhile, China denies reports that it will cut shipments to the US and Western Europe. But at the same time the Chinese are saying at current rates of demand growth they will start running out of rare earths in 20 years, and they have to think of themselves first.
Personally, we think this is entirely fair. And if China is deliberately restricting output to push up prices, that too is entirely fair. The country we think is guilty of extreme stupidity us the US, for thinking it can forget its rare earth production and just rely on China. Of course, with a previously mothballed US mine about to be reactivated - and with the mine owner saying he can produce the goods at half of China's price, the supply/price situation should change.
But will the completely "whatever" US attitude toward its manufacturing and strategic materials base change? Remains to be seen.
China sends three patrol vessels to Japanese Senkaku Islands In case anyone though that the quarrel last month over China's claims to these islands was history, this is a reminder that it is not. Far from deescalating, the China have escalated. These are not naval ships, but fishery protection ships; nonetheless, it as clear a sign as anyone should need that China is prepared to push its case to a higher level.
Meanwhile, the Japanese have delicately announced they are going to increase their submarine fleet in view of the Chinese naval buildup. The rumor is they will add 4-6 submarines. Conversely, however, the Japanese likel to replace their boats every 20 years. So unless it plans to rebuild some of its existing boats, there may not be much of a net increase.
China allows open air North Korean market on border reports Asahi Shimbun of Japan. The market is ~100,000-square-feet. China is giving its citizens permits to shop at the market if they return the same day, and they are allowed to bring ~$1200 worth of goods free of duty each time.
So naturally we wondered, what on earth would the Chinese want from DPRK? Turns out that fish, particularly frozen squid, is a great bargain.
And the Chinese are going to permit North Korean labor into a designated zone - obviously poor as China is, DPRK is even poorer and the labor will be cheaper.
Right now DPRK would collapse if the Chinese stopped exporting to the country and cut off aid. This is the one thing that is getting in the way of unification of the two Koreas.
But, look at this way. If DPRK collapses, as seems inevitable, the Chinese will be affected as millions of refugees from the northern part of DPRK seek to escape to China. Or so they Chinese say. Whether that is true or not, one thing is true: a unified Korea will create another democratic powerhouse directly on the Chinese border. One can understand Beijing is not exactly wild with excitement at the thought.
At the same time, a lot of ROK citizens are not exactly wild with excitement either. Much as the West Germans were worried about the costs and disruption to the orderly life they enjoyed, ROK citizens are also concerned with costs and unknowns.
India steps up defense ties with Vietnam But least anyone think this is something new and a response to the recent Chinese provocations on India's borders, the relationship goes back to the 1970s, when India permitted the use of its airspace and refueling facilities to Soviet transport aircraft taking arms to North Vietnam. India was very opposed to the US intervention in Indochina - as was most of the world - and at that time the idea was to show solidarity with a former colonized country. It was not directed at China.
The relationship became a lot closer after the 1979 Sino-Vietnam War, and has continued to develop since then. currently China is very much on both countries' minds. India may offer to build patrol vessels for Vietnam.

0230 GMT October 21, 2010

Pakistan Government, Haqqanis in talks We're going to have to let Long War Journal explain the significance of this development, but we do know enough to see it is a major one. The Haqqanis are possibly the strongest group US is facing in Afghanistan. The group is out of sorts with Pakistan because under US pressure the Pakistan Government half-heartedly tried to do something to calm down the group, but at the same time, the Haqqanis remain a major Pakistani asset as do the Mesuds.
We suspect this negotiations move has to do with the impending "peace" settlement in Afghanistan - and yes, please do think Austin Powers because it's going to be a totally fake settlement. If it gets the US out of Afghanistan, we don't care how fake the settlement will be.
http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/front-page/haqqanis-two-sons-mediating-in-kurram-100
Taliban step up attacks in South Waziristan says Long War Journal. Eight Pakistan soldiers have been killed this week and one captured. http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/10/taliban_step_up_atta.php
We find the referenced article to be of interest because a Taliban commander in the region says he estimates 18,000 fighters in the tribal areas, which is considerably lower than many estimates we've seen.
Also of interest is that the commander accuses Pakistan of quitting the war for Kashmir and instead turning its army against the Taliban.
Pakistan hasn't quit the war for Kashmir. But defeated in its long standing efforts to infiltrate into Kashmir and set up secure areas, Pakistan is reconsidering its options. Currently Pakistan is sidelined in the Valley. While it continues to try and infiltrate, it is not having success because - as we've noted several times - the Indians have finally figured out what they're doing.
Pakistan is also not in charge of the demonstrators, the bulk of whom don't want union with Pakistan.
But Taliban cells are now established in Muzzaffarbad, the district adjacent to the Valley. While it will likely take a year or two, attacks on Indian Kashmir will increase.
Of course, the problem is that some of the Taliban seem just as ready to contest control of Pakistan Kashmir as they are to attack Indian Kashmir. This is the problem with proxy groups, as India found out in the 1980s with the Sri Lankan LTTE: these groups start to get out of hand.
Sorry state of US aircraft production Defense News reports that the US has one fifth generation fighter in production (F-35), will stop manufacturing transport aircraft once C-17 orders cease, and expects a big reduction in helicopter procurement starting 2020. There is no manned bomber or fighter under design. Meanwhile, the F-15 production line will be kept alive by the recent Saudi order for 80 aircraft. Aside from the F-35, the sole big order in line is the one for tankers.
We were alarmed when we read this news, but then did a rethink. US doesn't have plans for additional manned fighters and bombers because it will shift to unmanned combat aircraft. Further, the one type of 5th Gen fighter in production is standardized for all services, so there's no need for another. If you care well for your transports, they last decades. As for helicopters, the AH-64 and UH-60 seem to have years more to go before something new is needed, and for heavy lift there's the CH-53K.
If, of course, you are talking about the defense production base, well yes, we are headed for very serious trouble in this area, as is also the case for warships. The base for armored fighting vehicles does not exactly have a glorious future either.
But because new weapons systems have become so expensive for various reasons, the number of units in each system is going to shrink and then at some point it's not economically viable to have three or four manufactures for each major system.
For the rest, leaving aside China, where is the threat? This is one reason the British have decided to shrink to five active brigades, a dozen submarines (half conventional), 19 surface warships, and 200 fighters. As for China, the US has sufficient conventional capability to meet any China threat for at least the next 20 years, if not more.
This is the odd thing about the world: compared to the Cold War era, it's a lot more violent. Look anywhere, and there's low-intensity wars and conflicts underway. But the conventional war threats have greatly diminished.

0230 GMT October 20, 2010

29 killed in Karachi says Dawn. BBC explains how gunmen know who to shoot. The simple answer is, they don't. They are simply going to communities dominated by one political party or the other, and killing people at random.
Curfew in Kashmir Valley after India arrests a wanted separatist leader it says was behind the violent protests in the Valley this summer.
Mythmaking in Afghanistan Some American analysts are busy propagating a new myth about Afghanistan. The Taliban, they are saying, is under so much pressure that it wants to negotiate.
We really have a severe problem with this belief because as usual, it's the American habit of spinning, saying white is white when it suits, but then saying whit is black when that suits.
The Taliban have always been ready to negotiate because what fool wants to fight when he gain the same result by talking? The US in particular blocked the Afghan government from talking to the Taliban, till it became obvious the war was being lost.
So acute is this habit of turning reality on its head, that David Ignatius of the Washington Post writes another adoring piece about General Petraeus, explaining how negotiating is his new strategy to end the war and how this worked in Iraq. We fully expect at any time, given the worship that the good general attracts, to see him dressed as an angel hovering above Washington DC.
Please, someone hit us with a brick and put us out of our misery. The comparison with Iraq is ridiculous. You had two rival religious groups, one which was in the minority and had oppressed the majority for 400 years. When the US broke that paradigm, the minority Sunnis became rebels. General P. was indeed one of the officials who got the Shia majority to accept the Sunni minority, which the Shias did to keep the US happy. But please note: now that the US is in the process of leaving Iraq, the Shia dominated government has made it quite clear it intends to dismantle the Sunni militias who helped the US put down AQ in Iraq and brought peace to their neighborhoods. The real purpose General P's maneuvers served was not Iraqi reconciliation, but to calm down the place so the US could declare victory and leave.
The good general is doing exactly the same thing in Afghanistan, and the result is going to be exactly the same as Iraq. The Taliban will become part of the government, act like good boys, and when the US is out of the picture, they will execute Mr. Karzai and his family - assuming Mr. K. doesn't run away to the US beforehand - and they will take over again, undertaking a bloody revenge against those who opposed them or served US interests.
General P. is a smart operator, and we are sure he understands this. If we were to talk to him, here's what he would say: once the Taliban is in the government, and once I am allowed to withdraw in 2014 and not my Commander-in-Chief's goal of 2011, the government forces will be strong enough to keep the Taliban honest.
But ask the General what are the chances of the Editor winning Miss Universe, he will say "none".
Now since the chances of the Afghan Government forces being effective in 2011, 2014, or 3014, are also precisely zero, we can with great mathematical precision say that the chance of the US strategy working are precisely the same as those of the Editor becoming Miss Universe. Its a very highly sophisticated equation and you have to win at least a Fields Medal before you can even dimly start to comprehend its meaning, and even then you will be stuck at the level of an ant understanding the meaning of the universe. This equation is Zero=Zero. Or, something cannot come out of nothing - this obviously does not apply to the Creator, whoever s/he might be. But we don't think even David Ignatius will claim that General P and the Creator are Best Friends Forever.
The best way to understand what General P is really thinking is to watch his face when he gives these deep thoughts on Afghanistan. You will see the naughty, sly smile of a schoolboy who thinks he is putting one over you and that you are so stupid, he can smile slyly in your face and you still won't get it.
A request to General P: with all respect, Sir, we are all not as dim as poor Mr. Ignatius, who writes well but does not think well. US suspect Mr. I was doing fine intellectually till he came to Washington DC and the WashPo.
BTW, Mr. Ignatius spends a lot of energy prescribing to the Pakistanis why cooperating with the US and destroying their Taliban is the best thing for them. When a man cannot understand that what is good for the US does not necessarily mean its good for Pakistan, and when the man tell us with a straight face that the ISI no longer does terror, and the Pakistan Army is fighting the Taliban, only two recourses are possible.
One, please hit us with a brick. Alternatively, please give us the same happy pills that Mr. Ignatius and Admiral Mullen are taking. Admiral Mullen too believes the Pakistanis are ferociously attacking the Taliban.
Though to be fair, we do not know anyone who knows him, so we don't know what he really thinks. But if he can look the American people right in the eye and tell then white is black - or, let's not seem racist, purple is orange, and green is pink, then we have to assume the Admiral thinks that the American public really is extraordinarily stupid.
Or may be the American elite in general is struck by the Red Queen Syndrome. Her Majesty, you will recall, made it a practice to believe six impossible things before breakfast - each day. And she also told you very clearly that words mean what she says they mean. And if you persist in contradicting her, well, sorry to say that you will be in one place and your head will be in another, and the Red Queen along with the rest of her entourage will be playing polo with you - literally - against the Black Queen and her entourage.
Since we don't want the Martians complaining we're being racist (speciaist?), perhaps we should talk of the Orange and the Yellow Queen, or perhaps of snuffleupaguses and Barney, or wlompityus and rtiuyst - darn, it, where is our medicine at?

0230 GMT October 19, 2010

Osama, Zwahiri in Pakistan: CNN The media source quotes NATO officials, who provided only a general idea of where the two are - somewhere between Kurram and Chitral. They are not living in caves, but in separate houses, and are protected by their own men as well as by some members of Pakistan's intelligence services.
Pakistan says Iran does not need N-weapons Dawn of Pakistan has this statement from Pakistan's foreign minister. Personally, we think its a very odd thing to say from a country that has its own N-weapons program. If Pakistan has the right to these weapons, why not Iran? The Pakistan foreign minister says Iran faces no threats. Well, India says Pakistan faces no threats: India has no territorial claims on Pakistan and as for the Kashmir dispute, India has ruled out initiating the use of force to take back Pakistan Kashmir, though Pakistan used force in 1947, 1965, and 1985 onwards including the 1999 Kargil War.
So will the Pakistan foreign minister accept India's advice? If not, he doesn't have the right to advise Iran on what Iran's threat assessments should be.
Our position is consistent with what we have said for decades: until all N-weapon powers are willing to give up their weapons, no N-weapons power has the right to lecture anyone else.
And yes, we do acknowledge that the US after World War II offered to end development, deployment, future use of the weapons if other countries did the same (Baruch plan). The Soviets rejected the US offer. The rest, as they say, is history.
It is near impossible to conceive this happening, but were the US to offer a similar disarmament deal, at this time no one would take it. After what the US did to the Iraq military in 1991 - i.e., destroyed one of the largest armies in the world with just conventional weapons while itself suffering just a few hundred casualties - it is understandable that a great many countries, including Iran, believe that N-weapons are the only way to deter the US. Similarly, Pakistan will not give up its N-arsenal even if India unilaterally disarms, because Pakistan cannot defeat or even neutralize India using conventional weapons.
Did you know that the Japanese Government saved thousands of Jews from death in World War 2? We certainly didn't. Haartez of Israel says that Japanese diplomats helped European Jews to escape during World War II by issuing them transit visas to Japan. Read about this amazing story at http://www.haaretz.com/jewish-world/the-small-japanese-army-that-led-nazi-era-jews-to-safety-1.319617
Hamas has SAMs says the Israeli Prime Minister. We don't understand why it's taken Hamas this long. Presumably Iran was not willing to supply them till recently. The SAMs will increase the possibility of Israeli helicopter losses in future operations, but our analysis is that they will not make any noticeable difference.
Bibi does something morally right We are no fans of the Israeli PM, but we have to acknowledge he has done something morally right. Since Israel is requiring that non-Jews take an oath of loyalty to the state, Bibi says that Jewish immigrants should also have to take the oath.
Proposed British Defense Reductions UK Telegraph lists the Conservative Government's proposed defense cuts, which are pretty brutal. The Royal Navy, by the way, will fall to 19 surface warships. But it has only 24 now, which is already quite pathetic. The Government wanted to scrap one of the two 60,000-ton carriers being built, but found that cancellation costs as this stage would be higher than completion costs. The first carrier, due in service in 2016, however, operate only for three years. When the second carrier commissions in 2019, the first will be retired.
Several people have made the point to us that while the US is still yakking about reducing government spending, the Brits have actually started to do so, and are pushing forward some wildly unpopular cuts. It remains to be seen if the Government can make all of its proposed cuts: it does not have a majority on its own. But at least the Government is trying.
Meanwhile, back in France the populace is going absolutely bananas about the French Government's proposal to raise the retirement age - from sixty to sixty-two. In the US the retirement age has increased to 67, and there seems to be an emerging wonk consensus that it has to be increased to 70 to keep social security solvent. Personally, we feel that the already high retirement age is unfair to those who do hard physical work. For those of us who do white collar jobs, if there is no way out except to raise the retirement age, that's okay.
Then there's people like Editor who will never get to retire. Can't blame the system for that. If you insist on spending the first 23 years of your working life doing work which you want to do instead of work that will lead to a secure old age, it's only your own fault.

0230 GMT October 18, 2010

Kashmir, Karachi Kashmir seems to be quiet, though parts of the troubled counties are still under curfew. It seems as if one person has died in the last week.
In Karachi, 33 people died in sectarian violence in 30 hours, says the Pakistan newspaper Dawn. Below we quote from Dawn, to note how totally meaningless the Karachi killings have become. The Times of India says the deaths have been caused by conflict between two political parties ahead of a bye-election. But how can anyone gain by randomly targeting members of other political parties? And how do people know what the affiliation is of a person they target? If the victims are known to the killers, it is strange that the killers are so rarely caught. The New York Times explains that one party, the MQM, is secular and is war with the ANP, a party that represents Pushtoons. The MQM is protesting the growing influence of the Taliban in Karachi. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/18/world/asia/18pstan.html?hpw of the city's 16-million people, 4-million are now Pushtoons due to the steady arrivals of refugees seeking to escape the violence of the North West Frontier Province.
A man sitting with friends by the roadside was killed by unknown gunmen in Kharadar area. Later, bodies of two people were found dumped near Timber Market. The bodies were trussed up and blind-folded and had 19 and 16 gunshot wounds, Saddar Town SSP Javed Akbar Riaz said. Shortly afterwards, a rickshaw driver was shot dead in the Husainabad area under the Azizabad police station. Orangi Town SP Haseeb Baig said that three bodies with gunshot wounds were found in parts of Orangi Town.
Police said that two of the bodies were found in Babae-Khaybar Gate area and the third at the Frontier Mor. In Lyari, three bodies with gunshot wounds were found. SP Lyari Rana Pervez said that unidentified bodies of two young men were found in the jurisdiction of Kalakot police station.The third body of a man of around 32 years old was found in Kalri police station area. Police took the bodies to Civil Hospital for legal formalities. In the limits of Jackson police station area, the body of a 55-year-old man was found with gunshot wounds.
Four people were shot dead in Malir area on Sunday. Two people were killed and one was injured when gunmen opened fire on a group of youths sitting in ‘Chatai Compound’ near Malir 15. Sources at the JPMC said that two victims had been brought dead. In an earlier incident, a boy was killed in Shadman Town near Malir Kalaboard. Earlier the body of a 17-year-old youth was found in Ghazi town graveyard. He had been shot in the head, Edhi sources said. The body was taken to the JPMC for post-mortem.
Armed men came to Babar Market in Landhi and sprayed people sitting in a carpet shop with bullets and escaped. Landhi SP Nasir Aftab said that three people died in the incident. Later, in Sharafi Goth police station area, four men on two motorcycles offered a lift to Saeed Badshah, a 40-year-old man with a disabled leg. “They took him on the motorcycle and shot him dead at a deserted place, dumped his body and fled,” SP Landhi said. A boy was going home when two gunmen shot him dead near the Rufi Shopping Centre near Met Office.
We'd like to ask: why offer a disabled man a ride and then kill him? Why kill a boy who was merely returning home? Why kill a rickshaw driver, who is basically a laborer trying to earn enough to eat? What has this to do with politics?
Massive Israeli gas strike to be exploited says the Wall Street Journal. Production wells are to be drilled in a giant field 135-km off Israel's northern coast. The field contains 16-trillion-cubic-feet of gas, enough for Israel's energy needs for 100-years. Israel has always been a net energy exporter. Now it is expected to become independent, if not an exporter of energy,
Meanwhile, the push to reactivate the US nuclear power industry as a way of reducing energy dependence has hit a big snag. US natural gas prices are hitting new lows as huge fields, exploitable with available new technology, are coming on line. At least one N-project, Calvert Cliffs III in Maryland may be in trouble because the US partner of a US-French combine has pulled out. The French partner says it will go to it alone, but there are several issues to be resolved before this is possible.
Progress in Marja, Afghanistan The US Government says the Marja operation has met success. after nine months, 300 policemen are now on the beat versus none earlier, and four schools have opened. We're going to be generous and assume the 300 police are actually working, which is very unlikely, and that the people welcome the police, which is even more unlikely.
So, here we are: its taken one Marine Expeditionary Brigade nine months to bring some semblance of governance to Marja, which is nothing more than a group of villages. And the job is nowhere done.
So we hope some readers who are skeptical of our assertion that the war is lost will now see the problem. That brigade represents one-tenth of US combat forces in Afghanistan. To clear one part of one county. Soon it will be a year. If the brigade withdraws, the Taliban will simply sweep in and finish off the police in a day. The ones that haven't already deserted, run away, or switched sides.

0230 GMT October 17, 2010

Is the US deliberately destabilizing Pakistan as a pretext to seize its N-arsenal?

Reader David T. sends an article http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=21475 that alleges the answer to the question is "Yes." One could argue that the source is leftist and Canadian, and therefore biased against the US. That, however, would not be fair. An argument has to be refuted on its own merits, not by tossing about labels, (Democrats, Republicans, Tea Partiers, please note.)

If the US needed a pretext to seize Pakistan's N-weapons, it has only to announce - after the fact - that it received credible evidence suggesting that the Pakistan Taliban planned to obtain N-weapons with the help of sympathetic elements in the Army and Pakistan Inter Services Intelligence. Pakistan links with international terrorism are well established; indeed, it is probable the US first threatened to bomb Pakistan back to the stone-age after it learned that two of Dr. A.Q. Khan's top scientists went off to discuss the sale of two N-warheads with Osama Bin Laden's lot. The links between the ISI and the Pakistan Taliban are well known, as is the Pakistan Army has a great many officers who sympathize with the Islamist cause.
So why bother destabilizing Pakistan as an excuse to grab the arsenal?
But wait, our readers may say: hasn't Orbat.com been saying these past months that the US is destabilizing Pakistan? Correct. We have said this because it is true, But the US is acting not for any ulterior reason. After nine years of being punked by Pakistan on the Taliban - something for which the US has only itself to blame - the US has suddenly decided it cannot take any more. It wants to get out Afghanistan after declaring victory, and there is no way the US can make any such credible claim even to its TV and beer addled masses given what's happening now. (Punked: schoolkids slango for being a fool of, being taken advantage of.)
But why is the US taking a hard line now when for 8 years it has not bothered. Isn't that suspicious? Not really. Occam's Razor again: and this time we'll use the analogy of a married couple that has not been getting along for years, but of a sudden Spouse A does something really minor compared what s/he has been doing so far, and Spouse B, who has been putting up with far more major provocations, suddenly loses it and the couple heads for a divorce. From the outside, we could say: But Spouse B has tolerated Spouse A's affairs for years; why is B flipping out because s/he intercepted flirty messages between A and someone s/he has never even met in person? But someone on the inside of the A - B relationship would say, the flirtation is the straw that broke the camel's back.
Sometimes things that seem sinister need not really be sinister. For example, the article mentions the recent US helicopter intrusion which resulted in the deaths of three paramilitary Pakistani soldiers. If you are inclined, you could list this as deliberate provocation. You could say: all these years there's been no trouble, so why is there trouble now?
Fair enough. But the reality is that the US has been violating Pakistan's border all the time in the past nine years. What changed is not that the US created an incident to destabilize Pakistan, but that Pakistan made a huge public fuss. And there's no conspiracy on Pakistan's side, either. This time it reacted because it is under tremendous American pressure to stop the Taliban, and it has no intention to do so - we've explained why many times. Pakistan seized on this incident to (a) proclaim to its people that the Government is standing up the US; (b) to embarrass the US, as in "how can we do what you ask when you're making life so difficult for us?" By all accounts, Pakistan has scored a tactical victory on this incident, but we digress.
In the article, President Zardari of Pakistan is quoted as having told people: "The US says it is going after Taliban, but when we give the US coordinates, the US refuses to attack." He thus implied there is an American conspiracy of some kind.
Well, there is a conspiracy, but not an American one. It's a Pakistani conspiracy. US some time ago finally caught on a neat trick Pakistan had been playing. When Pakistan wanted to get rid of a Taliban or AQ commander that was not playing the Pakistani game, it would say to the US: "This man is dangerous to America. Here are his coordinates. Zap him. And by the way, if you can increase our check as a reward for cooperating with you, that would be only fair." The proverbial two birds.
That the US is working itself up into a frenzy of anger directed against is perfidious "friend" is absolutely true. Again, no conspiracy: by increasing the number of Taliban, weapons, money, etc that Pakistan pushes into Afghanistan, Pakistan is undoing the effects of the US surge, in effect not just neutralizing it but doing worse, as the Taliban's influence spreads to area from where it has been absent. No surprise then, that the US is freaking out in grand style. Thus you have the US telling the Pakistanis "if you don't stop the Taliban, we will, and if it means bombing all 150 Taliban camps in Pakistan, we dare you to push us more - go ahead, just push us more."
The articles mentions Second Indochina. In retrospect, it's fairly clear that the US bombing of Cambodia is what caused Cambodia to fall to the communists/Khmer Rouge. But does the mean the US conspired to put the communists in power? Of course not. All that happened is the US, for the sake of a short-term goal, the need to stop the NVA from using Cambodia to outflank US/South Vietnam defenses, against the long-term goal, Cambodia's stability.
You will say - and correctly - that Nixon/Kissinger had no clue they were destabilizing Cambodia. But even if they had realized it, could they have acted differently? Not in the least. Americans were being killed because North Vietnam was using Cambodia for transit and sanctuary. If Nixon has not acted, sooner or later he would have been accused of being responsible for American deaths.
Perhaps his accusers might even have seen a conspiracy in his refusal to attack Cambodia. (Ditto Laos.)

0230 GMT October 16, 2010

A Six-Dollar Shovel

So, finding no shovel in the garage and needing one to transplant a tree, your Editor hies over to Home Depot and takes a close look at the shovels. Some are $20, some are $35. Then he finds on for $6. Okay, so its made in China and will break the first time any real pressure is put on it, but Editor is unemployed, so after a lot of hesitation, he brings home the six-dollar shovel.
Does this bargain make him feel he has been well-served by free-enterprise and free trade? Actually. no. First, it doesn't matter how you slice, dice. flip and fry the facts, there is a sound reason the shovel is $6, and that's because essentially its disposable. It works for someone who needs a shovel for very light work or just once. For anyone else, except those who really don't have the money, it's not a good deal. A quality shovel can last a lifetime.
But what about for the people who really don't have the money? Generally that's the poor, and we all know from consumer economics that the poor end up paying more than the rich because they cannot buy quantity or quality. Now why are the poor poor?
We know all the reasons, so lets focus on the poor person who has certain skills, and is willing to work, but cannot find work because the shovel factor he worked for is shuttered and the production shifted to China.
Problem is, Editor got a cheap shovel at the expense of another American's job. So when Editor wants to sell something to the former American shovel factory worker, the man has no money to buy the Editor's product. Moreover, since he doesn't have a job, he is not paying taxes and the things taxes are used for are not done. This impacts the Editor quite directly. He has three masters degrees, has advanced professional certification in two subjects including mathematics, and 14 years teaching experience. But he cannot find a job because school districts have to cut back on hiring teachers because tax income is reduced because people don't have jobs. If Editor had a job, he would have no need to buy the cheap $6 shovel. He would have bought a quality shovel, and the unemployed shovel-factory worker would get rehired, and pay taxes, so that Editor could use his skills to teach the shovel-factory man's child, who then acquires skills needed for her to do better than her father. And so on.
So obviously not everyone loses with the cheap shovel. The Chinese worker, who previously earned a dollar a day working on a farm, now earns three dollars a day working in a factory. The theory that his rising income means greater exports - and jobs - for America has long ago been proved to be total hogwash - we've discussed this before. America does not benefit, the corporate types at Home Depot benefit. Theory says well, if they have more money they can usefully spend, they'll have money for investment which will create more jobs. Great, except that hasn't happened. Structural employment in this country is 16%: 10% out of work, the rest include some who want to work full-time but cant find work, and a lot of people who have given up looking for jobs.
If you say the purpose of America is to give work to Chinese workers and to make the American haves get even more, than we're doing fine. But just remember: you can fool all people some of the time, you cant fool all the people all the time.
In centuries gone by, the instrument of foolery was religion: God wills it I am a lord and you are a serf, but keep in mind if you have followed all the rules, you, the serf, will go to heaven same as me, the lord. At which point you say: shore sounds good, m'lord, but how bout a little something to see me through this life a little easier?
In the 20th Century, the instrument of foolery was the national security threat: we can't ask questions because that will weaken our defense and those no good commies (or capitalists, or whatever) will take us over.
But America is unique in having an additional instrument of foolery: work hard, and you too can be Bill Gates or Barack Obama. For those who migrated to the US 1600-1900 this was certainly true - okay, maybe you didn't become Bill Gates or Mr. Obama, but your life was sure better than back home. As the Russian immigrant is supposed to have said, in a letter to his family in his village "I would rather be an ordinary man in America than a prince in my village." 1940-70 saw the emergence of the biggest and richest middle-class in history. After that, things started to go wrong.
The instrument of internal repression now is that self-same dream that brought so many to America. If you doubt that if you were poor and oppressed, to come to America was to find the Holy Grail, read Kazan's moving and inspiring "America, America". But as long as we in America keep believing our lack of success is entirely our fault, and than in 2008 seven people on Wall Street made a billion dollars each because they worked harder than we did, and if you believe that we just have to hang on and everything will be fine, this is just a bad economic phase we're going through, then you're playing into the hands of the repressors. And just like the Roman elite kept its masses down by staging spectaculars, our masters keep us down with cheap beer, sports, and Dancing With The Stars. And you know what? Since the American system of repression works on advertisements, we, the oppressed of America are actually paying for our own repression.
At which point our readers go: Look, Editor, we know its Saturday and as always you don't have a date, but is this any reason to go all socialist-marxist-communist on us? Don't we, your faithful readers, who put up each day with your rantings, deserve better?
At which point the Editor has to say: was the Bible written by Marxists-Socialists-Communists? The formative influences in Editor's life are two: 14-years of pre-school, kindergarten, and K-12 in religious schools (Catholic, Church of England, and Episcopalian), and New England, where he grew up. In ten years in New England he met one socialist - and the man was Canadian. For the rest, he remembers his headmasters - each of them ordained priests, by the way - telling him again and again: if you think of yourself first, and the common man next, last, or never, you only diminish yourself.
More to the point in a national security/GWOT blog: unless we sort out the economy, and get this country moving again, we're relegating ourselves to global irrelevance. So actually, there is a point to today's rant. And even if Editor had a date, he would still write this post. So there.
(Of course, by the time he finished the post the date would have dumped him and left. There's some deep, deep meaning here.)

0230 GMT October 15, 2010

Guess in which Army can a brigade commander ignore his superiors on national strategy and get away it? (Hint: this not the army if a banana republic or one where a brigade commander runs the country as president)

If someone had told us two days ago that this country was the United States, we would have refused to believe it. After all, the US Army is a wholly professional, tightly disciplined force, is it not? Well, apparently not.
Yesterday the Washington Post ran an article on the incidents of civilian killings in 5th Brigade, 2nd Division. Being the WashPo, it breathtakingly got the significance of its own story wrong. It wondered - with neither logic nor data - if the brigade commander's aggressive pursuit of anti-Taliban operations had anything to do with the killings. After having floated this straw person, WashPo proceeds to clearly show that the killings have everything to do with one psychotic soldier and nothing to do with the brigade commander.
You'd think that the story would end by saying "No, there is no connection between the CO and killings" because that is what the WashPo's own investigation to its own question shows. Instead, in the usual media style of "I'm just saying" - no sense in blaming Mr. Glenn Beck when the media uses the same technique - it refuses to draw a conclusion, leaving all but the most careful readers with the impression there might be connection even though the data WashPo presents shows exactly the opposite.
We'd say the WashPo is being its usual despicable self. Unfortunately, this is not just the WashPo. This is what passes for news and analysis these days. You cannot single out a single media source when the entire business works on innuendo - that would be the "good" media - and outright lies - that would be the "bad" media.
Being clueless, the WashPo never thinks to follow up on an astonishing revelation about the brigade commander. From the day he arrived, the brigade CO decided he was not going to follow the strategy that was laid down for him by his superiors going all the way back to the President of the United States. He was not going to do counterinsurgency, which was his orders, he was going to do counter-guerilla, which was his own thing.
The distinction between CI and counter-guerilla is simply that the former is hearts-and-minds, the latter is kill the enemy. Readers may well ask: is that a bad thing? Aren't we at war and isn't the objective of war to kill the enemy? Well, we could have a debate about which strategy is better, but whatever you and I may decide, the point is that a CI strategy has been laid down for Afghanistan, not counter-guerilla. The reasoning is that in CG, since dead insurgents is the priority, lots if civilians also get killed (think Vietnam and Iraq). In CI, you avoid killing people, sometimes even insurgents, because you want to win them over to your point of view.
So here we have the brigade commander, who is told by his evaluators in pre-deployment training that he will lose points because he is not doing as told. Our question: lose points for refusing to carry out orders of your superiors? Excuse me? Is this some kind of TV game? In the real world, if you don't follow orders, you get fired.
So the brigade deploys to Afghanistan, and the good colonel even forbids the mention of the words CI. He proceeds to do as he pleases, to the point other US and allied commanders asks the Regional Command (equivalent to a division) Chief of staff to talk to the colonel. The COS is a brigadier, and he fails to make any impression on the colonel, and goes back. Brigade officers who dare to point out to their CO that brigade is not following the top Afghan military commander's strategy find they do not fare well.
Meantime, in the article there is no mention of what the Regional Command CO, the corps commander, the commander for Afghanistan, the head of Central Command, the Army COS, the Pentagon, the President's national security advisors, or the President are doing.
So not only you have a rogue brigade commander, you have seniors who are unable to tell the commander where he gets off, or who really are not concerned.
We don't know what our readers would call this. But Editor, who has spent fifty years studying defense, believes it be called only one thing: a completely dysfunctional higher command system.
We have said this before, but we'll say it again. Gulf I gave everyone hope that the US Army had left forever behind the astonishing and criminal dysfunction of its Vietnam years. But after the conventional phase of Gulf II was done, it slowly became apparent to the public that all the bad old ways of senior commanders was returning. In Afghanistan this became apparent when the Taliban began to resurge,
That said, Editor has to make clear, the above is nothing to him personally. He has no dog in this fight, or to be more apropos, he doesn't have a cockroach in this fight because it surely aint dignified enough to be a dog fight. Editor is not a US citizen. Only his youngest child is of draft age, but realistically, given the youngster is 24 and a math/computer graduate, even in the case of a general war it's unlikely he'd end up at the mercy of commanders such as the US Army has. But readers who are citizens have to make a decision. Are they, out of a completely wrong sense of loyalty to their military going to continue tolerating this stupidity decade after decade, or are they going to work to put an end to it.
While you all carry on, Editor will do what he does best: relax, think big thoughts, and eat chocolate. Oh yes, also for the Nth time try and chat up the ladies in the YMCA.

0230 GMT October 14, 2010

China Tightens India Noose

China is finalizing details of a 111-km rail-link between the Bangladesh and Yunnan, China rail systems. The Bangladesh and Yunnan, China governments have pledged their full support cooperation. A new deep water is being built by China at Chittagong. This will greatly reduce freight delivery time for South West China as it will now not be neccessary to haul freight through the Malacca Straits to East China ports and from there to SW China. Like everyone who has to pass through the Malacca Straits, China is nervous about this choke point.
We mentioned some years back that the Chinese rail line to Lhasa will be expanded to Gyantze and Xigatze, SW and W of Lhasa respectively. Work for this line has started.
On due time the lone will be extended from Xigatze to Kathmandu in Nepal.
But this is not the big news. China has already build a nice airbase at Nyngchi, which is South East of Lhasa. It had a long runway capable of handling fighters without difficulty, and plenty of apron space to park military aircraft. Currently the place is used primarily by civil aviation.
Now China will build a new line from Lhasa to Nyngchi. There is a sound economic reason for this, because China is building numerous hydel dams on the Brahmaputra River. So far there does not appear to be any water diversion. But China is preparing to build a dam that will be twice as large as Three Gorges - which is already the largest dam in the world. So it will definitely need a rail line to support this project.
BUT - the net effect is that India will soon face a lateral west-east rail line running opposite its entire northeast border. Because Tibet is a plateau, China already has excellent road connections, so it doesn't really need the rail line for military logistics. Nonetheless, the lateral rail line will make possible easy shifting of troops west-east. Presently, both India and China are confined to north south roads, and east-west movement is difficult.
India, of course, has a dense railway network running north and south of the Brahmaputra River. But it does not yet have an east west lateral road except in parts, from example, the Central Bhutan highway. Roads are being built, by Indian standards quite fast, but considering this is an emergency, its quite sing in the sunshine and dance in the rain.

But: If India feels like it, the job is done and done well

An example in case is the expansion of the Nyoma Advanced Landing Ground into a sealed surface, packed-earth airfield within 90 days.
Nyoma is at an altitude of 13,300-feet in the Indus River valley in Ladakh, directly south of Chushul and some 30-km from the line of control. As part of their reactivation of several Advanced Landing Grounds in response to increasing tension with China, the Indian Army/Indian Air Force got Nyoma ALG going. It appears from Google Earth the ALG is 100-meters by 30+ meters. Type "Nyoma, Jammu and Kashmir" into the search box, and you will see a perfect green-brown rectangle on the east bank of the Indus, with a straight road leading to the village. We cannot say for a fact it is the ALG because the satellite photograph is unclear, but we don't see anything else that looks like it.
Anyway, someone decided the ALG needed to be expanded into a regular airfield capable of taking the An-32, which is a lot like the Italian G222/US C-27 except that it has a high wing and the engines are less prone to ingest rocks and debris from a rough surface.
So an Army engineer regiment was put on the job, and 90 days later you had a 2700-meter airfield (the high altitude necessitates a much longer airfield than in the plains). The airfield is packed mud, surfaced with a sealant developed in South Africa and also used by the Israelis.
To read about the sealant, go to http://ajaishukla.blogspot.com/2010_09_01_archive.html and scroll down to September 7, 2010.
Now India has decided to expand Nyoma into a full-service, multi-functional airbase, capable of taking the Air Force's heaviest fighters, the Su-30. The job will take 28 months - but it will still require four years, as five months of the year it's hard winter and not the best time to be working outside.
Ajai Shukla, whose blog we refer you to above, also notes that during the preparations for the Delhi Games, someone discovered far too late that a 1500-square-meter parking area for 100 buses had been overlooked. The company that makes the surface sealant undertook to get the job done. Within 14-hours the parking area was ready.
So this is what we mean when we say if Indian feel like doing something, they can work as fast and as efficiently as anyone, the Delhi Games notwithstanding.
There were two fiascos with the Games. Serious work did not start till 2008, whereas it should have begun in 2006. And the entire thing was "planned", "contracted", and "executed" (please do think Austin Powers) by somewhere around 60 government agencies, and ended up costing 60-100 times more than originally estimate.
Now before our American friends get on our case about the Government as inefficient, we need to point out that another Government company, the Delhi Metro, headed by a government bureaucrat, had its expansion of routes for the Games up and running perfectly as per deadline. The difference between the Delhi Metro and the agencies responsible for the games is that the bureaucrat in charge of the Metro does not let anyone interfere with the work, politician or bureaucrat, and once he sets a deadline, it has to be met.

0230 GMT October 13, 2010

Sorry - no update; too much homework to clear

0230 GMT October 12, 2010

Pakistan deploying air defenses on Afghan border? Long War Journal says that according to a Pakistan legislator this is the case. While naturally the US cannot consider this a friendly act, it may be no more than a show to assuage public outrage in the wake of the recent US overflight incident.
http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2010/10/pakistan_deploys_air_defense_m.php
8 police die in latest Mexico war incident The policemen were ambushed as they drove along a highway in the cannabis producing state of Sinola, by gunmen in 3-4 cars. Sinola is home to one of Mexico's most powerful drug gangs.
It's easy to dismiss this as "oh, that's Mexico". But try and imagine such a killing would have if it happened in the US. Multiply by 100 times. That should give some idea of what Mexico is going through.
PS: Mexico is not 5000-kilometers away, it borders the United states. Violence in Mexico very definitely impacts the US.
Meanwhile, any hope that California would start a legalization trend, for marijuana at least, and lead the way for legalization in the US have come to naught. Despite high hopes as recently as June, currently sentiment is running 53% to 43% against passage of a proposition which will be on the November 2 ballot.
We'd like to reiterate - as we have many times before on this issue - that legalization or not is an internal issue of the United States. We are not taking a position. The cons of legalization are well known. The pros are that legalizing and taxing what is now a contraband item will reduce the power of Mexican drug gangs, who are now busy solidly corrupting US border enforcement, customs, and police.

A comment on regulation in the financial markets

Reader Flymike has frequently written to us advocating a reduction of government regulation in many areas, including financial markets. Our response to him has been that unless there are regulations that offer the ordinary investor (stocks, bonds, bank accounts, mortgages) transparency and a degree of safety, people will just put the money in the ground. Without them willing to invest/lend money, GDP growth will suffer.
We learn from Bloomberg Business Week that in Germany people avoid the stock market as unsafe, and truthfully, while perhaps German stock markets would be higher with people investing, there is no evidence of this that we have seen.
Besides which, those arguing for greater individual responsibility could well say that that should be the priority, not the GDP growth.
Re. mortgages: in Canada you have to put down 20%, and interest payments are not deductable. Well, Canada missed the mortgage madness that almost led to the collapse of the US financial system, so may be people don't need as much regulation as Americans presently think to keep them safe.
Given that the US budget deficit is structurally entrenched, there is talk starting that the mortgage interest deduction will have to go. Good luck with that: the Republicans will call it a tax increase. Though the Tea Party should be okay with eliminating the deduction, as it represents a giveaway of public monies not available to those who rent. Sure, the deduction helps high rates of home ownership, and this is supposed to enhance social stability. Problem again is that this is not provable. We saw a study last year that said several European countries don't have this deduction. In Switzerland renters make up 50% of households. No one is going to successfully argue that Switzerland as a consequence is less socially stable than the US.
We are looking forward to hearing from those who extol the virtues of the private sector under any circumstances, regarding the unbelievable mess up that a leading US home finance institution has made of millions of mortgages. This was due not to inefficiency, but a deliberate fraud by the company with the objective of maximizing profit. Because banks have now been forced to stop foreclosures because so many of the documents are illegal, the US housing recovery is taking another giant hit.
We are firm believers that there are things government does better, and things that the private sector does better. Happiness lies in determining who does what better, not in the ideology of left and right.
If we're going to get stuck on ideological purity, all that will happen is that the systemic crises which are attacking the US will merely accelerate.
Perhaps you really do have to hit bottom before you can start recovery.
We are assuming that a Tea Party fave at this time are the Castro brothers: they are cutting Government jobs like crazy.

0230 GMT October 11, 2010

Leader of Baloch Tribe posts bounty for ex-President Musharraf's head - literally No figure of speech this. The son of the possibly murdered head of the Bugti tribe in Balochistan has offered $12-million and 1000-acres of land to anyone bringing him the head of the former Pakistan president. The Pakistan Army said at the time that the chief was killed in a counterinsurgency operation, but it is more likely he was murdered. There has been bad blood between the Bugtis and the federal government for at least 60 years.
Perhaps Beijing listened to Orbat.com's advice The PRC has gone silent on the issue of the Nobel Peace prize awarded to a jailed dissident. We'd said the other day PRC was only attracting more attention it didn't need by its propaganda campaign against Norway.
Keep an eye on deteriorating Lebanon situation Another civil war seems to be an emerging possibility as Hezbollah seeks to assert its power in the nation. Any war in Lebanon will inevitably draw in Israel and Syria. Both countries have extensive security interests in Lebanon.
Causes for bee disappearance may now be known Two US scientists say a double-culprit is behind Colony Collapse Disorder, a fungus and a virus that attacks hives. This actually a critical issue because without bees crops wont get pollinated. Editor has a small patch of wildflowers and as usual the bees in his area seem to be doing fine. A neighbor across the street though, is seriously allergic to bees so a couple of hives in a semi-abandoned house on the street had to be removed. No harm to the bees; a beekeeper came and got the hives to take to his farm.
Groan: more countries for Orbat.com's Concise World Armies As expected, the Netherlands Antilles has been dissolved and Curacao and St. Marteen are now autonomous countries within the Netherlands. Aruba already has this status. The former has 190,000 citizens, but if you think that is pathetic, St. Marteen has 37,000. No wonder everyone and his retard brother wants their own country.
Belgium, however, seems to be holding together as of now. It's high on the list of countries that may break up.
The big trouble you're going to see is in Sudan. As a condition of ending the civil war, South Sudan was to be permitted to vote for independence this year. But Khartoum seems to be hardening its position and may renege. South Sudan has half of Sudan's oil.

0230 GMT October 10, 2010

More NATO fuel tankers attacked Twenty nine this time, on the southern route (Quetta-Bolan Pass-Kandahar). www,longwarjournal.org says this makes 150 tankers since the Peshawar-Khyber Pass-Kabul route was closed September 30.
Dawn of Karachi says 500 fuel tankers take POL from Pakistani refineries to Afghanistan each day.
In case you're wondering why the 3rd son of Kim II gets to become Kim III Apparently Son Number 1 is prone to doing things like travelling to Japan on a false passport because he wanted to see Disneyland - that's the incident we hear about, given this is DPRK we'll never hear if there's been other incidents. Middle son, someone says, is like "a little girl".
We're relieved and reassured by the "little". Denying the top job to the man just because he's a girl would be sexist.
Meanwhile, back in the US of A A man was found guilty if a double murder in a Washington DC suburb. The man thought his wife was having an affair with someone, so he killed her and then went and killed her alleged lover, in a barbershop. The wife and the murdered gent were, in fact, not having an affair. A sad story, but hardly worth mention.
Except the man pleaded in court he did not mean to kill his wife. Well, this sounds a bit bizarre to us - it's used regularly as a defense in US courts, though we assume the impact on the judge or the jury is non-existent. After all, if you point a gun at someone. and shoot them, and they die, your intentions become a bit irrelevant. Aside for the difficulty of answering this theological question, because only the Divine can know what were your intentions and if you are speaking the truth.
But this wife-murderer seems to have set a new standard. He shot her 20 times with a handgun. He shot the alleged lover seven times, including twice in the head. Doubtless he didn't mean to kill the man, either.
Commonwealth Games BBC calculates to date Australia has won one medal per 200,000 people. India, which is third in the medals count - but has already won more medals than in 2006 - has one medal winner for 22-million people.
Oh yes. before the start of the games, some foreign sportsperson went into a deep tizz because they found a snake in their room. Xcuze us, pleaze. This is India. India has a lot of snakes. Only one was found in the Games Village? Pretty good going, we think.
Meanwhile, back at the Chile mine rescue The drill that is being used to make a vertical shaft so that the trapped miners can be pilled out has broken through to the cavern in which they are stuck. Good news.
But perhaps not so good for some of the men. Several women who are NOT married to the miners have come forward with babies to say this miner or that miner is the father of their child.
Feminists may be disappointed in us, but we have to say here these are men who have been underground for seven weeks. For the first 17 days they thought they were going to die because they had no contact with the outside world. Finally they are going to be free, and instead of a hug and a cuddle from their Significant Others, they are going to get serious beatings. Doesn't seem quite fair to us.
US Physicist resigns from American Physical Society A senior American physicist at the University of California, Santa Barbara, has resigned his membership in the APS, saying that the Society is helping perpetuate the global warming is caused by humans position. He says research money has gradually been corrupting the pursuit of science, and that the corruption has reached a new level with global warming.
Reader FlyMike sent us the story from the UK Telegraph, which is one of UK's top-rated newspapers. http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100058265/us-physics-professor-global-warming-is-the-greatest-and-most-successful-pseudoscientific-fraud-i-have-seen-in-my-long-life/

0230 GMT October 9, 2010

Somalia Some odd things are happening. First the African Union force says it controls 40% of Mogadishu. Well, it doesn't, but there is no doubt that from controlling the airport, docks, an a few city blocks, the AU force is suddenly much more evident that it was a couple of months ago, even though only 2000 additional Ugnada troops have been committed.
Second, there appears to be a serious rift in Shabaab because of the arrival of foreign fighters in large numbers. You have to remember that the Somalis are xenophobes. They get highly bugged when foreigners are around, which is why the Ethiopian intervention did not work. Yes, the AU are also foreigners, but they're confined to one part of Mogadishu. The Shabaab foreigners are all over the place, and of many nationalities. The Shabaab leaders who have welcomed the foreigners are the extreme branch of the Islamic movement. If they lose the mainstream Shabaab, they may have to shift their base outside Somalia.
Pakistan Dawn of Karachi says Pakistan will announce the reopening of the Khyber Pass route to Kabul, Meanwhile, we're reading allegations that many of the tanker attacks are being staged by the truckers themselves. They are said to be siphoning fuel from the 50,000-liter tanks, leaving a couple of thousand liters, and using explosives to detonate the tanker trucks. They get insurance money for their old vehicles, and get to sell the fuel. A back of the envelope suggests the fuel is worth $33,000 at retail (using 4.5-liters to the imperial gallon and $3.10/gallon as the price.
Orbat.com to Government of PRC: a little advice As expected, a jailed Chinese dissident was awarded the Nobel Peace prize, and as expected, the Chinese Government is now threatening Norway. In our opinion, Beijing would have done better not to comment in the first place.
First, all this yelling and screaming coming right after the Japan incident makes Beijing sound like squalling alley cats running their claws down a chalk board. It makes PRC look like a crazy.
Second, shouting that the man is a criminal only leads people to check as to what exactly is his crime. Is a serial murderer? Does he head a gang of slavers? Well, it turns out his crime is he called for multi-party democracy in his country. Surely it occurs to Beijing that excluding itself, 95% of the world will think that Beijing has committed the real crime?
Third, Beijing is beating up one of the most peaceful and small (in terms of population) states in the world. This just reinforces its stereotype as a bully.
See, Beijing might think that because it is now the second-largest economy in the world, it can throw its weight around. But look, fellas, be reasonable. You have already alienated every country on your eastern and southern peripheries. You keep picking up enemies like this, and you'll find soon it doesn't matter how big you are, people are going to gang up on you for self-protection. Is that really what you want?
Where your teacher retention money went It's likely that if Editor was himself not an out-of-work teacher, and that if we didn't keep letters from readers on the Tea Party, we wouldn't have noticed this bit of news. Readers will recall that the federal government allocated $30-billion in funds to retain teachers, police, and firefighters that would otherwise lose their jobs due to deteriorating local finances. To pay for the money, Government cut elsewhere including food-stamps for the poor.
Now it turns out - according to several sources we've been reading in the last few weeks - that three things have happened to that money. First, some districts have refused to take it on the grounds that sure, it helps them keep teachers this year, but what happens next year, when they'll have to fire teachers all over again. We think for districts that apprehend no improvement in their finances next year, this is a principled stand. Some districts have hired back teachers, which at least is spending the money for the purpose it was given. But some districts are using that money not to rehire teachers, but to cut education budgets and use the Government funds to make up the shortfall (Washington Post editorial, October 8, 2010.) This, we are sorry to say, is theft.
US health care has deteriorated: Columbia University reports the BBC at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-11502938 For example, in 1950 the US ranked fifth globally in female life-expectancy, but 46th in 2008. The report rejects obesity as a cause for such problems, and says it has controlled for different rates of obesity, smoking, traffic deaths and murders. It says between 1970 and 2002, US spending as a percentage of GDP rose twice as fast as in other industrialized countries.

0230 GMT October 8, 2010

US-Pakistan Relations Continue Deterioration: Wall Street Journal

The Wall Street Journal yesterday published what for asleep-at-the-switch Americans will be explosive revelations. For Orbat.com the WSJ article created a big yawn and the use of toothpicks to prop up eyelids. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704689804575536241251361592.html
WSJ cites US intelligence and other sources as saying Pakistan has ordered the Taliban (its own and the Afghanistan Taliban) to step up attacks on NATO and the US, and is threatening to arrest Taliban leaders who don't comply. One such leader said the Pakistanis want him to kill civilians, men, women, and children. He refused because, he says, Afghans are brothers and tomorrow he may be sitting across the negotiating table with them. He says he will continue to fight foreign troops - i.e., US/NATO.
The report leads to two questions. One, why is Pakistan now throwing all restraint to the winds in the matter of using Taliban to attack is BFF and ally the US? Two, why is the US now openly talking about this whereas Pakistan has for years been attacking US forces vis the Taliban?
Answer to Question 1 is easy. Read the October 7 post. US wants to minimize Pakistan's role in the coming "political settlement" in Afghanistan; Pakistan is just as determined it will have the lead seat at the table.
Answer to Question 2 is a bit more complicated. We're going to have to generalize a bit to create a broad outline that is easy to follow, and we'll describe the narrative as America tells it (which is not to deny other narratives are invalid, but we're writing from an American viewpoint).
In the period 2001-02, the US squashed the Taliban and ejected it to back where it belonged, Pakistan. In 2002-2005 Pakistan rebuilt the Taliban, which it confined to low-level operations in Afghanistan. It didn't see the need to do more, because US/NATO had a light footprint and while Taliban fighters were killed or pushed out by the US in 2001-02, the village cadres and so on remained intact.
In 2005 Pakistan stepped up the attacks against US/NATO forces because it saw that if the US was given unlimited time in Afghanistan, it would succeed in building up an independent nation capable of looking after itself. No need to ruin this narrative by pointing out that the urgency with which the US was doing this would see US finish dead last in a snail race for the 100-meters (we mean with actual snails). The important thing is not what US was doing, but Pakistan's perceptions. Please to note that 2005 marked the beginning of the end of the Pakistan offensive to seize Indian Kashmir. After two decades of itself snoring at the switch, the Indians were finally getting their act together and defeating the Pakistani infiltrators.
Once Taliban got active again, US started sitting on Pakistan to do something it, so 2007-2009 saw Pakistan playing more games than usual with the US, because US objectives in Afghanistan are not Pakistani objectives (big surprise here). Pakistan's job became to put on a Sound and Fury show while not touching the Taliban. The narrative took a side-turn because some of the Taliban, mad as heck that Pakistan was in bed with the US, started attacking the Pakistan Army. But that didn't change the drama that Pakistan was staging for US benefit.
While some Americans - particularly those back in Washington, were actually taken in by the show, the Americans in theatre, including the military and CIA, were not deceived at any time.
So why didn't this show simply continue? Why did it have to come to an end? It had to come to an end because in 2009-2010 the US committed itself to near tripling the number of combat forces in Afghanistan, and all of a sudden - OMG and all that - Washington started demanding results because the Great American Citizen had to get off the couch where he had been ensconced with his TV, beer, and chips, and make a bathroom run. Going to the bathroom not just gets one out of one's coma, since it removes you-know-what from the body the brain can think again - there's room for the neurons to fire and all that.
So America got into a situation where the more it bet on Afghanistan in order to get a resolution, the more Pakistan pushed back. We saw this in Vietnam too (substitute Taliban for VC and Pakistan for North Vietnam), but since Afghanistan was not supposed to a replay of Vietnam, we didn't pay it much mind.
Now, almost all of us have been in a relationship that turned bad, and you will recall that for years you can continue with each other despite the deepest differences, but of a sudden there is a tipping point, even the immediate aggro can be quite minor, and of a sudden you're throwing open the window and shouting down the street "I'm saying it now and I'm saying it loud, I'm a cow and I am proud".
Oh dear. Somehow we've gotten "Network" mixed up with Harvard Lampoon's "Bored of the Rings. As they say, a slip of the tongue is no slip of the mind, which is to say, both Freud and Jung would say: "Ooooh, that's a very significant slip because its no slip at all, but what your subconscious is saying." They'd ascribe it to different reasons, of course. Freud would say you have a secret pash for your mother-in-law, whereas as Jung would more sensibly attribute it to lack-of-a-date-on-Saturday-night. But we digress.
So what was the tipping point for the US? Not being Bob Woodward, and not having the benefit of Tweety Birds whispering sweet nothings in our ear at all times of the day and night, we cannot tell you the exact incident, but our hunch is it is tied to President Obama suddenly realizing his military commanders were taking him for a ride and then sniggering at his naïveté for letting them take him for a ride. Our hunch says the Prez started yelling and screaming (of course, in that supernaturally calm voice of his, and always keeping in mind that when the Prez says: "Daddy is sad that Baby has thrown his Gerber's mash on the ground", that is the equivalent of Presidents Johnson and Nixon saying: "!@#$%^&* and *&^%$#@! you, you &*^%*&^%!".
Now, while you dis your Prez all you want, the reality remains he is your Prez, and he can fire you in less time it takes for you to light your smoke. And also, of course, the generals have their reputation to protect too. Even if you think your Prez is Bozo the Clown's retarded brother, you dont people thinking that you're the retarded brothers Clown, if you know what we mean. With Pakistan countering every move the US was making by stepping up the pressure from its side in response to US escalation, someone was going to lose their cool at some point.
We might add something here that Sylvester did whisper in our ear. No, it wasn't "I tot I saw a tweety boid". It is that General Kiyani, the Pakistan COAS that the Americans thought they could do business because he is a straight shooter, as opposed to President/General/COAS Musharraf, who bettered the white man by speaking with a three-forked tongue, is - horror of horrors - a straight shooter. And the good General K has repeatedly told the Americans in his scrupulously polite way, that if they don't like the way he is dealing with the Taliban (which is to say not dealing with it all), they can pick up their marbles and put the marbles in a place where the sun never shines and so on.
This is why the US again started making threats of the "We'll bomb you back to the Stone Age", and this is why the good General K tittered behind his hand and muttered to his aide "Those stupid Americans dont realize we already are already in the Stone Age, hahaha! If life gives you lemons, make lemonade. If the Americans bomb you, set up a metal recycling business." (We were given this information by sources who cannot be identified because they were not authorized to speak to the media.)
Okay, so you will say: "Wild imagination there, Ed. old buddy, how do you know this?" To which we say if Bob Woodward can derive fully fleshed narratives that would require him to be in flagrante delictio, not just in bed with his sources, why can we not do the same? With the difference Editor's Sylvester Bear, one of his four faithful teddys is infinitely more reliable a source than some scions of the media. (Ooooh, that was a cheap shot - even Tweety can cut down the scions of the media, and he has only a birdbrain, you know).
But more seriously. The problem with the Woodward narrative is that like good people in Imperial service, to him the Pakistanis are invisible, sort of like the Viceroy's servants. Woodward thinks the narrative of the US intervention in Afghanistan-Pakistan is an American narrative. Sorry about that, Old Boy, its a Pakistani narrative. All you've done for nine years is react. You've been punked.
We'd like Mr. Woodward, and the American decision-making elite to remember something they tell us in Iowa from when we're little. Make sure you know at which end of the cow you're standing. It really makes a difference.

0230 GMT October 7, 2010

No Afghanistan Solution Possible Without Pakistan

The US seems to think it can make an Afghanistan settlement without Pakistan. Personally, we understand why. For the US, Pakistan has been the problem in Afghanistan, so how can it be part of the solution? And Hamid Karzai does not want Pakistan involved in talks for the simple reason the gentleman does not suit Pakistan's interests.
Now, whatever the US and Kabul may think, they can hardly ignore the rather large person to the East. Pakistan has a population of 180-million. It created the Taliban, and it helped the Taliban take over almost all of Afghanistan. It did so for its strategic interests, which require depth against India.
Its true that had the Taliban government not been deposed by the US, it would have become independent of Pakistan and worse, it would have encouraged Pakistani Pushtoons to revolt Islamabad. But you see, we at Orbat.com don't make the mistake of prescribing what is good for Pakistan. And the reason we don't do it is because, surprise, Pakistan is an independent country with the right to make its decisions, regardless of whether we, Washington, or anyone else thinks they are the right decisions.
Lets strip away the fallacies, wishful thinkings, and half truths the US is engaging in to impose its version of reality on the region. The US cannot impose its version of reality because - goodness, this is such a shock - Pakistan borders Afghanistan, and unless the US has a secret weapon that can put Pakistan into another dimension, Pakistan is not going away. Is this so terribly hard for Washington to understand?
Let us assume the Taliban agree to join the Kabul Government. Does anyone imagine for a moment that they will not overthrow the Kabul Government faster than the US can spell Afghanistan? And who will they turn to for help in overthrowing Kabul? You guessed it: they will turn to Pakistan. So who will be the Number One elephant in the Afghan room? It will be Pakistan.
Lets go back 40 years to Vietnam. Lets suppose after the Tet Offensive the US invites the insurgents to join the government. Wouldn't it have been just the first step in the reunification of Vietnam? Why does the US think getting the Taliban into the Kabul government turn out any different?
Let's look at another aspect. The Pakistan Taliban, which is largely untouched by the Pakistan Army for the good and sensible reason it is an branch of the Pakistan military, has between 40,000 and 100,000 fighters. The uncertainty is there because the Taliban are the ultimate social network: fighters turn up for the party when they feel like it, fight for however long they want to fight, and go home when they want.
Add to this force 3-4 brigades of Pakistan regulars on "leave" or "retired" from the Pakistan Army, with armor and artillery. This is no fantasy, by the way. Its because of Pakistan Army regulars that the Taliban overran 85% of Afghanistan in two years 1994-96. Unless the Pakistan Army plus Pakistan Taliban on Afghanistan. How long are the sham Afghan security forces going to last? We'd be surprised if they will last a few months.
Does the US think it can hold back the Pakistanis by using, for instance, airpower. The first thing that's going to happen is a bunch of civilians are going to get killed, the Pakistanis/Taliban will have the world press right there, and the world will be screaming for US blood. Second, US has all the airpower it wants right now. Has that stopped the Taliban from taking over major parts of the country all over again?
We could go on, but readers will get our point. Pakistan, not the US, will be ultimate arbiter of Afghanistan's fate.
And no matter what the US does, Pakistan will go by its interests, not the US's. So why go through the farce the US has embarked on? Why not just say, "It's been real," and leave? Or does the US prefer to be thrown out, as it happened in Vietnam?
The reason the US lost in Vietnam has nothing to do with military power. US was the strongest military power in the world then, as it is today. But the US lost because ultimately Vietnam was more important to the people who lived there than it was for the US.
Ditto Afghanistan-Pakistan.

Other news

Error re. US fatalities in Afghanistan Yesterday we somehow transposed the 2010 US fatality total in Afghanistan for the entire period 2001-2010. The correct figure is 1300+, or three weeks equivalent of a bad month in Vietnam.
50+ tankers destroyed Half were in the Quetta area, and half in the Peshawar area. So far there has been no need for NATO to provide security because private contractors pay off the insurgents. It remains to be seen if Pakistani insurgents decided to keep targeting NATO supply convoys. If so, this is going to be a problem as road security requires a significant deployment of manpower. And as yet the insurgents have not been placing IEDs inside Pakistan to target convoys. If this happens, then the Pakistan supply routes are basically done. You cannot expect civilian drivers to keep working in the face of an IED threat. So far, the convoys attacked inside Pakistan have been stationary, and the drivers/cleaners have not been in their vehicles. So casualties have been low.

0230 GMT October 6, 2010

NATO Traffic at second Pakistan crossing halted says Dawn of Karachi, referring to the Chaman crossing west of Quetta in Balochistan. 150 vehicles are held up because Pakistani authorities say some documents have been tampered with. US official has visited and requested the customs to let the vehicles through. Torkham on the Peshawar-Kabul road is still closed.
Italian official says his contingent is not concerned about the blockage as their supplies arrive from non-Pakistan routes.
On October 4, 2010, twenty oil tankers were set on fire outside Islamabad and three people killed.
Brazil's Tiririca the Clown wins big He has been elected to the federal parliament with the largest number of votes of any candidate. His election slogans included: "Vote for me, there's no one worse," and "What does a federal deputy do? I don't know, but elect me and I'll find out for you."
The other day we reported there was a bid to get him off the ballot because he is illiterate.
A blogger from the University of Southern California's Annenberg Media Center says that Tiririca is the only Latin American clown who had the decency to wear his clown suit while campaigning. Other clowns campaign dressed up as politicians. The blogger has named our fave dictator Hugo as a clown. We are most miffed. Whoever you are, feller, it's our job to make fun of Hugo. Back off, please. http://www.neontommy.com/news/2010/10/send-clowns
Must the silly season in Israel You-Tube video showing an IDF soldier belly-dancing next to a handcuffed and blindfolded Palestinian woman prisoner has triggered an Israeli Defense Forces internal investigation, says Haaretz of Israel.
Dude, the soldiers blindfolded her before the belly dance. That shows great empathy and concern for the prisoner.
Here's more from Haaretz: Other soldiers faced disciplinary action over the last year for uploading video of themselves stopping a patrol in the West Bank to dance to American electro-pop singer Kesha's hit Tick Tock. The video "Batallion 50 Rock the Hebron Casbah" shows six dancing Nahal Brigade soldiers, armed and wearing bulletproof vests, patrolling as a Muslim call to prayer is heard. Then the music changes and they break into a Macarena-like dance.
Definitely a war crime. Hang the fellows.
80% of Pakistanis trust military compared to ~33% who trust the civilian government. This according to a US State Department poll covering the second quarter, 2010.
For those who like keeping lists UK Independent says Cambridge University has admitted its youngest student, aged 15, since 1773. In that year William Pitt the Younger became a student at age 14. The current youngster is majoring in math at Fitzwilliam College, which admits just 6-8 students a year for the math tripos degree.
Not to worry, Mr. Pitt Junior: no one's likely to break your record of becoming Prime Minister at age 24.
Turkey helicopter deal Sikorsky has offered the Turks ~100 S-70 utility helicopters for $4-billion, or $40-million each. If we recall right, the UH-1D cost $250,000 back in the middle 1960s, about $1.75-million in today's money. Is an S-70 twenty times as effective as an UH-1D? Look at it this way. Every time an S-70 is shot down in combat, there is a significant hit to a medium-sized country's defense budget. You could lose a lot of UH-1Ds before raising national taxes.
Aha! You will say. But $40-million is program cost, not unit cost. Editor, you're compares apples to oranges. Well, we don't know how how many years of spares, manuals. tools, etc. are included in the Turkish proposal. But whatever it is, the minute you start talking about program cost rather than unit cost, you've become a business executive, not a warfighter. Program cost is irrelevant in a war. The sole consideration is: is the equipment cheap enough you can actually lose it in combat, or are you planning on using your equipment in peacetime only?
US sent 12,000 helicopters to Indochina 1962-1975, and lost about 4800, half to accidents - which unfortunately, happens a lot in a wartime environment. Of the losses, 2000 were in 1968 and 1969, when the UIS presence was the largest and the fighting most intense
In World War II, it is said it took ten Sherman M-4s to take down a German Tiger tank. But the Sherman was cheap enough the US could build 20 for every Tiger. People keep talking about quality, which is what the Germans went for. Soviets and US went for quantity. Guess who won the war.
Talking about numbers People get weepy about the almost 400 US troops killed in Afghanistan in nine years. Get a grip, people. In 1968 killed ran 500 a week. That was a war - a limited war (World War II cost the US about 2500 dead a week.
We are not saying because the loss in Afghanistan is so low it's okay to stay. But our basis for saying the US should leave is not influenced by casualties, which are truly insignificant. We just want people to get a sense of perspective

0230 GMT October 5, 2010

Another 8 German Jihadis Die reports Long War Journal, in a UAV strike against a mosque in North Waziristan. http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/10/eight_germans_said_k.php
The Germans - likely of Turkish origin - are believed to have be linked to an AQ plot to stage several Bombay 2008 type attacks in Europe. One supposes AQ is not getting the results it wants from bombers. We'd like to advise AQ, however, that the Bombay circumstances were very different.
Bombay is a very densely populated city. Moreover, the local police, though extremely brave in their response to the attack, were completely unprepared and outgunned. The chief of the anti-terrorist squad, for instance, went off to fight a gun-battle with AK-47 armed terrorists with his trusty six-shooter and a bullet-proof vest of a type that had failed ballistic tests. He won himself India's highest peacetime bravery award, which we are told he deserved, but he did not return alive.
Any similar attack in a western city would be most unlikely to have anywhere near the same results.
Please notice: we said US attacked a mosque Those nice Hellfire missiles the UAVs fire are designed to destroy a 70-ton tank. They make a big mess wherever they are used. We are certain civilians died.
But are there any global protests against the US for hitting, on purpose, a mosque? No, nor will there be. so is hitting a mosque less heinous, in the eyes of the faithful, then tearing a couple of pages of an English version of the Koran, which led to global consequences? That doesn't seem possible: a mosque is far holier than Koran pages in English. So what's the deal here?
Well, the deal simply is that in terms of quantum theory, an insult to an Islamic icon does not become an insult unless the Western press reports it. As far as the very great majority of Muslims are concerned, because the western press is not going all out to publicize the mosque attack, it didn't happen. We'd be surprised if there is any react in just the Pakistani town where the mosque was, let alone in Pakistan.
Western media might rethink its responsibilities in reporting certain things. Just saying "the public has a right to know" doesn't quite absolve the press of responsibility for creating reality as opposed to reporting it.
All Quiet In Kashmir Just as the Kashmir situation was getting nicely out of control and interesting, its gone off the radar. Editor is disappointed. He wanted to the demonstrators taught a serious lesson. So what has happened?
What has not happened is that the Kashmiris have suddenly become impressed by India's offer to talk. Many separatist leaders correctly rejected the talks thing, saying nothing new was being discussed and nothing was going to change. Smart lot, these separatist leaders.
What happened is three things. First, the arrival of the Army suddenly reminded rioters that this was getting serious. The Indian Army does not go around handing tulips and kissies when it comes to do riot control. Second, the tough curfews imposed on several Kashmir cities and towns had a sobering effect. In some cases even sick people were not being allowed to go to the hospital. Kashmiris have been through these curfews before, and at some point you have to ask yourself, if it really worth it to go through this all over again? Last, Kashmiris were losing money. No commerce, no trade, no tourists. So again, at some point you have to reassess if its really worth it.
But: we have great faith in the separatists. Kashmiris have the sweetest deal of any Indian citizens. They can be relied on to forget that and to agitate for more. Just like the California Governator in his actor mode, the separatists will be back.
Why US is not attacking Balochistan Professor Feisal Khan, an Orbat reader and assistant professor of economics at Hobart and William Smith Colleges, writes:
I’ve heard from a very knowledgeable source (considerable time incountry in Afghanistan) that the vast majority (~80%) of the Taliban in Afghanistan are indeed locals, even in the South, and that there is minimal Pakistani infiltration from Balochistan. The only time the Pakistanis come into Afghanistan from Balochistan is to work in the fields during poppy harvest.
On American rural/small town areas versus urban areas Professor Feisal Khan sends a second letter:
Small towns and rural areas exist they way they do because there is massive Federal and State government subsidies for them. It doesn’t matter if we are talking about electricity lines, phone lines (esp. land lines), roads or what not; on a per capita basis they get much, much more than urban dwellers do. For example, as a general rule, the more urbanized states are net payers and the more rural states are net gainers from the US Federal Government (http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/2004/09/red_states_feed.html)
Other Tax Foundation research shows that the bottom 60% of the US income distribution gets more in government spending than they pay out. Funny that the people who gain from government spending seem to be so against it.

0230 GMT October 4, 2010

The Afghan War: Two Schizophrenias

Main NATO Afghan transit route still closed says Dawn of Pakistan. The day after the Khyber Pass route was closed on account of a US attacking killing three Frontier Corps soldiers, Pakistan immediately backtracked to say the route would be reopened. So we assume it's a matter of time and money.
But there is something not quite right with this closure story. After four days, only 200 trucks are waiting on the Pakistan side, or an average of 50 per day. The number for NATO is far more. We suspect that trucks are being let through. We seem to recall last year about 600,000 tons of supplies a month are required in total for all US/Coalition/Afghan security forces but truthfully, though we looked at 20 articles, we don't see a figure so we may well be wrong.
Meanwhile, a blog says that a US division in Afghanistan needs 3,000 tons of supplies a day http://www.uruknet.info/?p=69827 We are unsure if this is correct, but the blog notes that a German Panzer Division of 1942 needed 30-70 tons a day. This is not strictly accurate: German divisions had to make do with what was given, and their army was never particularly keen on logistics to begin with, paying this vital aspect little attention. Moreover, in 1942 a German panzer division was more akin to an armored brigade or even less.
The 3000-ton/day figure per division is possible if one is taking the number of division-equivalents in Afghanistan and dividing them into total supplies. But the supplies used by higher HQs are well in excess of what a division itself uses. This is particularly the case here because NATO is responsible for supplies to the Afghan security forces.
Also, since no infrastructure worth the name exists in Afghanistan, a significant fraction of supplies go for construction; this figure would have increased because of the deployment of additional US troops and the need to provide for them.
But now that we have futzed around with the figures it is neccessary to address the real point the blog makes. Supplies, it says, are the Achilles heel of the NATO effort; if the Taliban shut down NATOs few supply lines, NATO would have to quit.
This is where Orbat.com has to break, as gently as possible, the news that the Taliban will never interdict NATO supplies for Afghanistan. This is because NATO pays the Taliban to let the supplies through. The Taliban actually provides protection for NATO convoys against bandits.
NATO will say: "What rubbish. We don't pay the Taliban." Editor's response? Sad. Typical psychotic response of a patient who is totally removed from reality. We use the word psychotic on purpose, because there is a many-dimensional schizophrenia about the NATO operation from start to finish, and this mental illness is why NATO cannot win.
If NATO is saying they don't have a uniformed officer accepting documents from the Taliban and paying them cash, the NATO assertion is true. But surely NATO is aware that it pays civilian contractors who pay the Taliban. The cost is built into the contractor billings, and the practice is so widely known we don't know why people get surprised when they hear about it.
So aside from the extreme dysfunction of paying Pakistan to pay its Taliban that then go on to kill NATO troops, we have this supply dysfunction where NATO pays the Taliban to protect its supplies, and the Taliban use the money to pay men to kill NATO troops.
This may be the first war the US has fought where it pays not only its own men, but the enemy as well.

Other news

We have people stoned to death quite close to America says reader Luxembourg. A recently kidnapped Mexican mayor was found bashed to death by stones. Understandably, the media is not telling us was he stoned to death or did the druggies simply use use a big rock to kill him. Looks like the druggies are get bored with just shooting or knifing their victims to death.
Washington Post says 11 Mexican mayors have been killed this year, and in the last two years 100 threatened out of their jobs, kidnapped, or murdered.

0230 GMT October 3, 2010

China offers to buy Greek bonds when the Government of Greece begins selling long-term bonds again, sometime next year. The Chinese Prime Minister is on a state visit to Greece.
Good move, China. But don't get too involved in using your economic clout because you are still a poor country and cannot afford the complications.
Life in America US now has an all-ladies football league (American football). The ladies play in designer lingerie. we are told a coach said "it's not about ladies playing in their underway, its about winning."
Sure, good buddy, whatever you say.
We actually like this idea. ( Editor does not have a TV and wouldn't watch it anyway, so he is not saying this is a good idea because he gets to drool over undressed ladies.) We like this idea because it is going to drive Islamists totally crazy. It also maintains America's position as the leader in Low Culture. (Editor is originally from the Punjab region we India. We Punjabis know a few things about Low Culture.)
Ten-trillion dollar prize awarded at the Ig Noble awards ceremony held at Harvard. You guessed it: its not ten-trill USD, but Zimbabwe Dollars. The Ig Nobles are awarded to the worst ideas in science, and may possibly be the only useful thing this university does.
In case you didn't have enough to worry about Here's an article in the New Scientist that says while probably our universe has 5-billion years to go before it ends, time could end at any moment and our universe with it. Editor's sole question is: will it hurt?
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn19513-countdown-to-oblivion-why-time-itself-could-end.html
On the happier side Remember this name: Gliese 586g. The "g" is important, otherwise your letter will not reach the right place. Gliese 586 is a red dwarf, and planet g lies in its habitable zone. The planet is 3-4 times earth size, rocky, and possibly with oceans.
Gliese 581 is the first "Goldilocks" zone planet discovered. The star is just 20-light-years from old Sol. Astronomers say that there are 116 stars within the area between us and Gliese 581; if this is typical, there may be between 20-40 billion inhabitable planets in our galaxy alone.
The Nanny State Some days when the Editor wants to send off a G-Mail message, he gets a window asking him to do five arithmetic sums. The message says that Google wants to help its customers. Do I really want to send the message? If I do, and don't get it right, Google sends a message saying "Its bed and water for you."
Editor has no clue (a) What business it is of Google's if I want to send a message or not. If Google really wanted to help, it could have a popup window saying "click here to confirm if you want this message sent". We're told Google Mail now has a recall button but there's some complicated way of pulling it down. (b) If I made an error in my arithmetic, why do I have to drink water and go to bed? Is Google suggesting I'm drunk? Don't know know what Google does in Mountain View or whatever, but hello, Google: that's pretty insulting to someone who doesn't drink. Or maybe you didn't know that not everyone drinks. In which case perhaps Editor, next time the popup appears, should ask Google: "Do you really want this popup to come up? If you cannot factor a 31-million digit number into the product of two primes - in your head - then its bed and water for you. And please don't drink your water bed. Not only you'll get soaked when you lay down, you wont get any sleep because you'll be rushing to the loo every five minutes."

0230 GMT October 2, 2010

US Kills 10 German and British Jihadis in Datta Khel strike

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/09/germans_britons_link.php

The Government in our lives Kathleen Parker of the Washington Post said something sensible the other day. She said Americans in small towns and rural areas don't need the government as people in urban areas, which is one reason they are against big government. But in the urban areas, where people are packed like proverbial sardines, unless you have a high level of government intervention, you'd have nonfunction.
We were reminded of this yesterday when we learned Maryland has a new law: an automobile passing a cyclist must give the cyclist at least three feet of room, or not pass.
Editor has nothing against government, big, medium or small. Personally, he finds the government very efficient. Case in point: due to being out of a work, Editor applied for early social security - he's actually entitled to the full retirement account, but he doesn't have a birth certificate, and his passport age is less than his real age for some reason. He filled up his application on the web, and a screen came up, saying hie over to the nearest Social Security office and show them documents 1, 2, and 3. Off went the Editor on the next day. Office was crowded, he had to wait 45 minutes for his turn, but when it came, the agent took five minutes to make copies of the documents and check everything, One week later the first check was electronically deposited in his account. Try and get your health insurance company to do anything for you, and you'll still be battling a year or two later.
OK. This said, even the Editor went: "what the..." when he read about the three-foot rule. He is highly sympathetic to cyclists, having been one in Delhi for over ten years. Some American drivers seem simply lose it when they see a cyclist and have to slow down. Editor sees this every day because his route to and from the gym is via Sligo Creek Parkway in Silver Spring, Maryland, which passes for several miles through a recreational area. 99% of American motorists do slow down, but when you have several thousand motorists using the Parkway (maximum 25-miles-per hour) each day, you can see the potential for trouble.
OK, this said, Editor asked the obvious question: and how exactly are the Park Police supposed to measure if a 3-foot distance has been maintained? Particularly when in the first place the Park Police are hardly around - not their fault, budget issues and all that. Even if the police car is right behind the offending auto, how do you prove it in court that the distance was 35-inches and not 36-inches?
Indeed, the article made clear the police themselves think the law is unenforceable.
So here's the dénouement of our story. Some cyclist association person is quoted as saying, in effect, okay, its not enforceable, but every little bit helps to improve the safety of cyclists.
Huh? Like the 1% who push cyclists around are going to be deterred by this unenforceable law? Those of us who will obey the law already look out for cyclists.
So, we can see our readers who want limited government tearing their hair out, saying this absurd law, unenforceable from the start, is a prime case of regulation going berserk.
It sure looks that way. Yet, the government of Maryland didn't come up with the law on its own. People lobbied for it, legislators weighed the pros and cons: what is the balance between people who get angry and people who feel pleased by the new law. Obviously the calculus was more votes net if they pass the law. So they've passed the law.
Department of Irony Former President General Pervaz Musharraf, who toppled a Pakistan civilian government in a coup, and is now in semi-exile, warns that the Pakistan Army may attempt to overthrown the civilian government.http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/pakistan/14-musharraf-warns-of-new-military-coup-in-pakistan-zj-01
We have said for months that there will be no military coup in Pakistan. General Kiyani is a rather clever person, and he has no interest in openly heading a country which is in serious trouble. He will let the civilians take the blame - though truthfully he has been the defacto ruler since he took over from General Musharraf. Before the floods, we were expecting that General Kiyani would be invited to take over in the next year or so, as the internal security and economic situations continued to deteriorate. After the floods we believe even after he is invited, he will seek to continue ruling through a puppet, like the current President who is in power larger thanks to the US. Of course US would have much preferred its viceroy to Pakistan would be the President's murdered wife. But life, as they say, has other plans.
That President Zardari is on his way out is now known even to the American press. whoever his unfortunate successor, expect the man to be dead or out within a year.
Meanwhile, US fiddles while Pakistan burns, pretending that all is normal, and it's just a matter of getting Pakistan's better cooperation and the war in Afghanistan will be won.
if an ordinary citizen was so out of touch with reality, while stomping around with loaded guns, he would be put down by the police. In this case, unfortunately, it is the police who have gone psychotic and have the loaded guns.
Excerpts from an article on Rare Earths by Professor Alex Calvo, the European University at Barcelona Rare earths are scarce, not because they are not widespread, but because they are not normally found in high enough concentrations to make their exploitation economically feasible.
Over the last decade, China has emerged as the main producer and exporter of these elements, and currently supplies some 97% of world demand. This is a result both of its lower production costs, as well as the stricter regulatory and environmental policies in the United States. One key example is the closure of Mountain Pass Mine in California in 2002. Actually, China only holds one third of recoverable reserves, with the United States, Russia, Australia, and India also having a significant but not exploited portion of the balance.
History teaches us that the decision to use a weapon must take into account not only its immediate effects, but also the longer run impact. This is particularly the case when, by its very nature, a certain weapon is likely not to be available as soon as an enemy develops countermeasures.Since China's current quasi-monopoly on rare earths is not purely the result of their natural distribution, but rather of the decision by other countries not to pursue their production, Beijing cannot count on this advantage forever.
Furthermore, every instance where this monopoly is used in the realm of foreign and defense policy, or even where it is simply threatened, provides an added incentive for potential victims to, at the very least, create or reinforce strategic stocks and perhaps seek alternative suppliers.
Although it seemed until recently that (Beijing was following a policy of building trust as a reliable trade partner), llowing, the unofficial embargo imposed on Japan over the trawler skipper has put to rest any such assumptions. China pressed the button, and now there is no going back: The regime will never again be able to credibly assure other countries that they have nothing to fear from its stranglehold on supplies.
An urgent debate is therefore needed that leads, ideally, to a reopening of the US Mountain Pass Mine, environmental considerations notwithstanding, and an effort by countries such as Australia and India to develop their own mines. There should also be an effort to pool strategic stockpiles among democracies.
Original article appeared in http://www.panorientnews.com/en/news.php?k=468

0230 GMT October 1, 2010

Pakistan blocks NATO supply route Reader Agneya alerted us to this story. Yesterday it was clarified that Pakistan had blocked one of several routes, the others are open. Agneya makes the point that the Pakistan Government is nearly broke; as such it cannot continue to be difficult on this question.
The Pakistani soldiers killed when the US made its hot pursuit into Pakistan earlier this week were from a Frontier Corps outpost with six men. They fired in the air to alert the pursuing helicopters they had cross the borders. The helicopters took it as hostile fire and attacked the post.
At this point we are compelled to point out, for our civilian readers, at least, that it is not a good idea to fire anything in the direction of US helicopters. Attack helicopter crews, just like combat aircraft crews, operate on hair-trigger reflexes because one mistake and you could get shot down. Agreed that a helicopter at 100-knots and say 300-meters up is in a better position to see what it's firing at than a jet at 400-knots and say 1000-meters. But that's precisely what makes attack helicopter crews jittery: a well-aimed RPG can bring down a helicopter at low altitude. Indeed, there is a case from the Iraq War where ~50 attack helicopters were attacked by several hundred Iraqi soldiers, many with RPGs, and had to withdraw. If we recall right, this happened in 2003 to the 101st Division - please correct us if we're wrong.
BTW, Editor was at a function some months back where there were a couple of TV camera crews, and darned if they didn't look like they could be toting SAMs. Sure, if you looked twice you saw they were not SAMs - not long enough or bulky enough. But this is the point we're making: in combat you do not, cannot, give a second look particularly when you are up and moving low and slow. In the case of the alleged war crime where a US helicopter crew attacked journalists who were filming them head on from the ground in a combat zone, take time to assess the threat and it takes less than half-a-second to press the trigger of a shoulder-fired SAM that has been tracking you.
US and Rare Earths Reader Michael sent us a long article on the US rare earth mess. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-29/pentagon-losing-control-of-afghanistan-bombs-to-china-s-neodymium-monopoly.html Some of the material in the US PGMs comes from China, which now has 97% of the world's production. Since China restricted rare earth exports earlier this year, prices for some of the materials has climbed 6x.
Please read this para from the story: "The (US) company will keep processing costs to $1.26 per pound, half the average in China, by recycling more water and using a single acid to separate elements, said Mark Smith, Molycorp’s CEO. Molycorp is also negotiating with potential partners to alloy metals and turn them into neodymium magnets in the U.S., creating as many as 900 jobs."
This is what is called innovation. The reason America has lost millions of jobs to overseas is that American corporations, with no responsibility to anyone except their own bottom lines, have not cared to innovate to offset lower overseas labor costs. If US companies refuses to innovate, a revalued yuan will not make the slightest difference. Japan's yen was revalued by 400% over a 30-year period and Japan STILL has a trade surplus with the US. But the US company mentioned above, has no problem paying its employees 10-20 China wages, and will still produce the goods cheaper than China.
Letter on Maj. Amin's article The reply of Major Amin looked more like a rant and with
rhetorical statements clearly avoiding main issues raised in Bob Woodward's book. Let me put some simple questions to his rebuttal.
Why an economical bust country like Pakistan need "to hedge their bets" even when country is on the verge of collapse, now just scaffolded by US&Friends of Pakistan's generosity. Just last week Pak increased its defense budget even when it has no means to afford massive reconstruction of country after flood or to services its Himalayan budget deficit & debt crisis. It says lot about priorities.
How can he blame US for propping up military rule in Pakistan when Pakistani politicians, judiciary themselves subvert Pak constitution themselves and mindlessly try to maximize power without any respect to integrity of institutions.
Major Amin in conspiratorial tone says US avoids attacks on build-up urban areas of Balochistan where 90% of Taliban is.One, in crowded areas, infiltration of spies possibly private defense contractors or civilian spy agencies like Intelligence Bureau, Pakistan's CIA or FIA who are more close to US can do the dirty work. In rural areas,people know each other and relationships accurately and thus a rigorous counter-intelligence activity by well-trained Al-Qaeda operatives will clear the snitches in no time. So an airborne attack is required in FATA. Besides, we are having death threats and riots just because somewhere, somebody draws a stupid cartoon in facebook or somebody burns their "personal copy" of Quran. Just imagine what will happen if US casually bombs building in Peshawar or Quetta. It must also
be remembered that in cities people tended to be more fanatical and religious than in rural areas...and of course due to rigors and pressures of cities more angry, particularly so in a dysfunctional & misgoverned country like Pakistan.
US have different set of values. US is an "openly" hedonistic Judeo-Christian society where as Pakistan like all Muslim counties just do just the same kind of things in a "closeted and hypocritical" way. Everything centers around honor and superficial pride. So I don't see a 'disgrace' when US care about their causalities in terrorist attack. Why should US concern more with Pakistani lives than Pak Govt? In this, I totally agree with Martin Perez of The New Republic (TNR) that Muslim lives are cheaper to Muslims.
Editor's response In South Asia we do have the unfortunate habit of conducting a discussion without reference to the background - we just assume everyone knows the background. So it is with Major Amin. A new reader of his thoughts would inevitably come to many of the same conclusions as reader Vikhur, so perhaps we should clarify a few points.
Major Amin is actually pro-American. He is very anti- the Pakistani generals and the political system, to the point he has had to remove himself from Pakistan at times. He objects - as many do - to the high-sounding US language on supporting Pakistani democracy and so on, while actually the Americans are cozily in bed with the generals from Day 1. That Day1 dates back to the middle-1950s
He is angry at the US Government because its words and deeds are completely at odds re. Pakistan. It is a fact most of the Taliban fighters who operate in Afghanistan are Baloch based and not NWFP based. US has never acknowledged this or acted - except in very limited ways - against the real problem. It has conducted a sleight of hand by focusing our attention on NWFP. No one we have talked to has an answer for why this is so, why is the US government fighting the minor threat and ignoring the major threat. While the Quetta Shura is indeed based in an urban area (and often travels to Karachi), the insurgent camps are all over Balochistan's border with Afghanistan and can be attacked without fear of major civilian casualties.
When attacking in Pakistan the US Government has never concerned itself with civilian casualties. We have defended the US on this, because the Taliban/AQ leadership lives with their families. To hit a leader, you are going to end up blowing up his compound, and for every leader you kill, you are killing a great many civilians. But we cannot expect any Pakistani to agree to this policy, nor to quietly accept the way the Pakistan Government is complicit in the killings.
We hope this clarifies some - by no means all - of Mr. Akula's objections to Major Amin's article.

· 0230 GMT September 30, 2010

A critique of Bob Woodward’s article on Pakistan

A.H. Amin

If you are short of time, we suggest you read only the yellow highlights, which represent Mr. Amin's comments.Mr. Amin is a retired Pakistan Army officer who has worked in Afghanistan for many years after 9/11)

o President Obama dispatched his national security adviser, retired Marine Gen. James L. Jones, and CIA Director Leon Panetta to Pakistan for a series of urgent, secret meetings on May 19, 2010.

o Less than three weeks earlier, a 30-year-old U.S. citizen born in Pakistan had tried to blow up an SUV in New York City's Times Square. The crude bomb - which a Pakistan-based terrorist group had taught him to make - smoked but did not explode. Only luck had prevented a catastrophe.

o "We're living on borrowed time," Jones told Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari at their meeting in Islamabad. "We consider the Times Square attempt a successful plot because neither the American nor the Pakistani intelligence agencies could intercept or stop it."

o If it is borrowed time that USA is living on, it is a singular US failure! You have high sounding agencies like Homeland Security, DIA ,CIA, FBI, DEA, BATF and then you cannot deal with people like Faisal Shahzad, a so-called terrorist who could not assemble a decent explosive device in Times Square.

o Jones thought that Pakistan - a U.S. ally with an a la carte approach of going after some terrorist groups and supporting others - was playing Russian roulette. The chamber had turned out to be empty the past several times, but Jones thought it was only a matter of time before there was a round in it.

o General Jones is naive. How has he explained why Pakistan’s 1500 Km Baluchistan border through which major Taliban infiltration is not guarded by no Pakistani troops? Or explained why only some groups in FATA are being attacked by USA while the vast bulk of Taliban fighting the vast bulk of US forces with bases in Pakistani Balochistan are not being touched.

o Fears about Pakistan had been driving President Obama's national security team for more than a year. Obama had said toward the start of his fall 2009 Afghanistan-Pakistan strategy review that the more pressing U.S. interests were really in Pakistan, a nuclear power with a fragile civilian government, a dominant military and an intelligence service that sponsored terrorist groups.

o What has the USA done tangibly to strengthen democracy in Pakistan in the last 60 years? Nothing. It has all along supported military regimes, has financed agitation against the first democratically elected Prime Minister Z.A Bhutto, and actively acted as mother of terrorist groups created in Pakistan with US aid and weapons to destabilize the de facto and de jure government of Afghanistan from 1978 to 1992. Later the USA supported the Taliban because the Taliban were supporting a US Oil company UNOCAL which had the blessing of the US Government.

o Not only did al-Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban operate from safe havens within Pakistan, but - as U.S. intelligence officials had repeatedly warned Obama - terrorist groups were recruiting Westerners whose passports would allow them to move freely in Europe and North America.

o The solution to terrorists recruiting westerners is not to attack FATA because the recruiters are not based in FATA. The recruiters are based worldwide so attacking FATA won’t change anything.

o Safe havens would no longer be tolerated, Obama had decided. "We need to make clear to people that the cancer is in Pakistan," he declared during an Oval Office meeting on Nov. 25, 2009, near the end of the strategy review. The reason to create a secure, self-governing Afghanistan, he said, was "so the cancer doesn't spread there."

o This is a political statement designed to impress Mr. Obama’s voters. The statement has no military or strategic value. Safe havens from where Taliban operate are not in FATA alone. Rather FATA contains less than 10 % of save havens. The real safe havens are in Pakistani Balochistan, which has never been attacked.

o Jones and Panetta had gone to Pakistan to tell Zardari that Obama wanted four things to help prevent a terrorist attack on U.S. soil: full intelligence sharing, more reliable cooperation on counterterrorism, faster approval of visas for U.S. personnel traveling to Pakistan and, despite past refusals, access to airline passenger data.

o "Full Intelligence sharing" is never done by any state. Even close allies hide information from each other. Leading US strategic thinkers agree that Afghanistan or FATA do not represent any existential threat to US. Indeed after 9/11 US soil has not been attacked by terrorists so why this storm in a tea cup. All kinds of Americans are already being issued visas in Pakistan and they have achieved little. All flight data is already in full US control through a UAE based US company and this applies to all international flights originating from two third rate vassal states called Pakistan and Afghanistan. The four conditions Mr. Woodward talks about make no sense.

o If, God forbid, the SUV had blown up in Times Square, Jones told Zardari, we wouldn't be having this conversation. Should a future attempt be successful, Obama would be forced to do things that Pakistan would not like. "No one will be able to stop the response and consequences," the security adviser said. "This is not a threat, just a statement of political fact."

o So Mr. Obama is back to President Bush’s threat after 9/11 to bomb Pakistan into the Stone Age. But can he carry out his threat, with the US already dumbfounded and directionless after occupying Iraq and Afghanistan? Does he now want to occupy Pakistan?

o Jones did not give specifics about what he meant. The Obama administration had a "retribution" plan, one of the most sensitive and secretive of all military contingencies. The plan called for bombing about 150 identified terrorist camps in a brutal, punishing attack inside Pakistan.

o Can Mr. Woodward tell us where these 150 camps are? If they are in FATA, please note that almost all of the region has been subjected to continuous attack for years by US drones, Pakistani jets, TOW-Cobra sorties, 155 mm artillery salvos, 120 mm mortars and many more types of direct and indirect fire! So bombing these alleged 150 camps will achieve what, considering 80% of the Taliban’s forces fighting in Afghanistan are Baluchistan based, and are not in the NWFP?

o Wait a second, Zardari responded. If we have a strategic partnership, why in the face of a crisis like the one you're describing would we not draw closer together rather than have this divide us?

o Now, America, you wait a second. President Zardari does not run Pakistan’s security policy. So its pointless asking this poor soul already under attacks engineered by Pakistani military who despise him for being a Sindhi and not a Punjabi.

o Zardari believed that he had already done a great deal to accommodate his strategic partner, at some political risk. He had allowed CIA drones to strike al-Qaeda and other terrorist camps in parts of Pakistan, prompting a public outcry about violations of Pakistani sovereignty. He had told CIA officials privately in late 2008 that any innocent deaths from the strikes were the cost of doing business against senior al-Qaeda leaders. "Kill the seniors," Zardari had said. "Collateral damage worries you Americans. It does not worry me."

o Long before Zardari a cheap social climber called General Pervez Musharraf had meekly submitted to US drone attacks and Pakistan has actually been housing many US operatives launching Quixotic Drone attacks on windmills they see as Al Qaeda and terrorist monsters in Pakistan’s FATA. How naive to state that the American puppet Zardari agreed to drone attacks when he was never even asked?

o As part of the partnership, the Pakistani military was billing the United States more than $2 billion a year to combat extremists operating in the remote areas near the Afghan border. But that money had not prevented elements of the Pakistani intelligence service from backing the two leading Afghan Taliban groups responsible for killing American troops in Afghanistan.

o Eighty percent of the Taliban attacking US forces in Afghanistan are Balochistan-based. US has done nothing to attack them.

o "You can do something that costs you no money," Jones said. "It may be politically difficult, but it's the right thing to do if you really have the future of your country in mind. And that is to reject all forms of terrorism as a viable instrument of national policy inside your borders."

o "We rejected it," Zardari responded.

o Jones and Panetta had heard such declarations before. But whatever Pakistan was doing with the many terrorist groups operating inside its borders, it wasn't good or effective enough. For the past year, that country's main priority was taking on its homegrown branch of the Taliban, a network known as Tehrik-e-Taliban, or TTP.

o Here again Woodward misses the real point. He states that "Pakistan’s priority is its home grown Taliban TTP " but fails to note that US has also been droning only the areas where the Pakistani TTP is located and that the USA has never droned the Balochistan bases which house 80 % of the Taliban. Mr. Woodward and the Americans badly need to study a map of the region.

o Panetta pulled out a "link chart," developed from FBI interviews and other intelligence, that showed how TTP had assisted the Times Square bomber, Faisal Shahzad.

o "Look, this is it," Panetta told Zardari.

o "This is the network. Leads back here." He traced it out with his finger. "And we're continuing to pick up intelligence streams that indicate TTP is going to conduct other attacks in the United States."

o Again a storm in a teacup. Faisal Shahzad was a shabby, ill trained man who seems to have miserably failed his basic explosive training.

o This was a matter of solid intelligence, Panetta said, not speculation.

o Solid intelligence? Surely this is a joke. The CIA are so incompetent that they could not even body search sources entering their secret facilities in Khost which resulted in some 11 CIA fatal casualties.

o Zardari didn't seem to get it.

o "Mr. President," said Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi, who was also at the meeting, "This is what they are saying. . . . They're saying that if, in fact, there is a successful attack in the United States, they will take steps to deal with that here, and that we have a responsibility to now cooperate with the United States."

o Poor foreign minister Qureshi only deals with Botswana and the like. The rest of foreign policy is run by Pakistans military bureaucracy.

o "If something like that happens," Zardari said defensively, "it doesn't mean that somehow we're suddenly bad people or something. We're still partners."

o Afterward, the Americans met privately with Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, chief of the Pakistani army and the most powerful figure in the country.

o In Pakistan it is the army chief that runs the show. Pakistan after all is an army with a state and not a state with an army.

o Although Kayani had graduated from the Command and General Staff College at Fort Leavenworth, Kan., he was a product of the Pakistani military system - nearly 40 years of staring east to the threat posed by India, its adversary in several wars since both countries were established in 1947.

o This was part of a Pakistani officer's DNA. It was hard, perhaps impossible, for a Pakistani general to put down his binoculars, turn his head over his shoulder and look west to Afghanistan.

o Jones told Kayani that the clock was starting now on Obama's four requests. Obama wanted a progress report in 30 days, Jones said.

o Kayani would not budge much. He had other concerns. "I'll be the first to admit, I'm India-centric," he said.

o Panetta laid out a series of additional requests for CIA operations. Obama had approved these operations during an October 2009 session of the Afghanistan-Pakistan strategy review.

o The CIA director had come to believe that the Predator and other unmanned aerial vehicles were the most precise weapons in the history of warfare. He wanted to use them more often.

o Pakistan allowed Predator drone flights in specified geographic areas called "boxes." Because the Pakistanis had massive numbers of ground troops in the south, they would not allow a box in that area.

o "We need to have that box," Panetta said. "We need to be able to conduct our operations."

o Kayani said he would see that they had some access.

o Now where do the Americans need boxes? My sources state that they have never demanded any boxes other than FATA.

o Jones and Panetta left feeling as though they had taken only baby steps. "How can you fight a war and have safe havens across the border?" Panetta asked in frustration. "It's a crazy kind of war."

o What can poor Panetta change? Every war is crazy and USA is already a party in negotiations with the Taliban. So where is the war? The insignificant number of Americans dying in Afghanistan is not a war? After the Taliban was overthrown, nothing the US has done in Afghanistan can be considered more that a pin-prick.

o The United States needed some kind of ground forces to eliminate the safe havens, Panetta concluded. The CIA had its own forces, a 3,000-man secret army of Afghans known as Counterterrorism Pursuit Teams. Some of these pursuit teams were now conducting cross-border operations in Pakistan.

o Now where is this famed force? I did see Americans training some clowns in the Commando school in Rishkor near Kabul. The Wazirs and Mehsuds (from where much of the Pakistan Taliban is recruited) are brilliant marksmen. They still prefer bolt action Lee Enfields and would welcome a chance to fight these 3000. Any effectiveness claimed by Panetta for this force is a fantasy!

o "We can't do this without some boots on the ground," Panetta said. "They could be Pakistani boots or they can be our boots, but we got to have some boots on the ground."

o Army Lt. Gen. Douglas E. Lute, the National Security Council coordinator for Afghanistan and Pakistan, also traveled with Jones and Panetta to Pakistan. He supervised the writing of a three-page trip report to the president that Jones signed.

o It contained a pessimistic summary, noting first the gap between the civilian and military authority in Pakistan. The United States was getting nowhere fast with these guys. They were talking with Zardari, who could deliver nothing. Kayani had the power to deliver, but he refused to do much. Nobody could tell him otherwise. The bottom line was depressing: This had been a charade.

o Jones said he was alarmed that success in Afghanistan was tied to what the Pakistanis would or would not do. As he saw it, the United States could not "win" in Afghanistan as long as the Pakistani safe havens remained. It was a "cancer" on the plan the president had announced at the end of 2009.

o Interesting rhetoric with no connection with reality. Despite the near trillion dollars the US has spent in Afghanistan, I have entered Kabul, as recently as August, so much expense that the US taxpayers have made in trillions in Afghanistan , and not been checked at any security point after 11 o clock at night !

o Second, the report said the Pakistanis did not have the same sense of urgency as the Americans. There were regular terrorist strikes in Pakistan, so they could not understand the traumatic impact of a single, small attack on the U.S. homeland.

o If the Americans get traumatized by so little, then God help this so called super power. What a disgrace!

o The options for Obama would be significantly narrowed in the aftermath of an attack originating out of Pakistan. Before such an attack, however, he had more options, especially if Pakistan made good on his four requests.

o After the Jones-Panetta trip, Pakistan's cooperation on visa requests did improve. When I interviewed Obama two months after the failed Times Square bombing, he highlighted Pakistan's recent counterterrorism efforts. "They also ramped up their cooperation in a way that over the last 18 months has hunkered down al-Qaeda in a way that is significant," he said.

o "But still not enough," I interjected.

o "Well, exactly," Obama said.

o Does this not show how helpless the US is in this war?

0230 GMT September 29, 2010

o Mr. Obama, what does India have to do with it? Editor is becoming convinced its not just the DPRK leader is in la-la land. He's worried his current commander-in-chief is getting dangerously close to the borders of that fabled place.

o Mr. Obama announced that a withdrawal from Afghanistan will not do the US, Afghanistan, Pakistan, or India any good. So aside from all the other reasons we're supposed be in Afghanistan, helping India and Pakistan are also reasons? This is darn generous of you. Mr. Prez. Can't imagine imagine India and Pakistan fighting a war for the US.

o Now this bit about a US withdrawal not doing Pakistan any good. Earth to C-in-C: the Pakistanis have been fighting to get the US out of Afghanistan. If you haven't yet caught on, you're going to have to change your motto from The Audacity of Hope to the Stupidity of Hope.

o And if India is vitally interested in Afghanistan, Mr. Prez, may we respectfully ask why the Indians are not helping with troops? India has a 1.4-million man Army with 35 divisions plus three to be raised. Heck, India's CI force, the Rashtriya Rifles, alone have the fighting equivalent of 40 US brigades, which is pretty close to the active duty strength of the entire US Army.

o While you're in Afghanistan fighting for the Afghans, Indians, and Pakistanis, Mr. Prez, can you kindly send troops to fight for Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea? Wont do anyone good if the Chinese roll them up.

o We normally don't say mean thing about the US President. The office deserves respect. Fine. But shouldn't the occupant in a way that earns respect and not say absurd things?

o China threatens Norway Oooooh those Chinese are so subtle. There is just no chance simple-minded Americans can understand their sophisticated diplomacy. What is the Japanese PM is supposed to have said about Americans? Nice people, but mono-cellular. Just his way of saying Americans are simple-minded, like the idiot who is supposedly missing from his village in Texas. (You gather from this the Japanese are also very sophisticated people - Bwaaahahahahaha!)

o Those Chinese are so sophisticated that they've told Norway if some dissident of China's who is in jail gets the Nobel Prize, Norway-China trade relations will suffer. You know, it will take America decades to figures out because the message is just sooooo sophisticated

o Kim the Third: its official At the Party Congress he has been given two more crucial party posts. In the event of Kim the Second buying the farm early, his sister and her husband will act as the youngster's regents. All well and good, but naturally the question arises, what if sister and husband want to become king and queen after Kim II goes. Of course, Kim III may well survive if others are unwilling to let his aunt and her husband take over.

o BTW, the kid is not just an ordinary general as of two days ago, he is a 4-star general.

o All this appointing and shuffling is going to be pointless if the country collapses. all it takes is a general or two who refuses to order his troops to shoot demonstrating/revolting peasants, and the place unravels.

o India Shining: The Morons Rise Again So Editor gets a bit worried when he see a Times of India headline saying border incidents with the Chinese in Ladakh (NW India) have risen by 100% this year. He got a little less worried after he read the story, which says the incidents have gone from three last year to six. But still, that's serious. So what have the Chinese been doing?

o (a) Those bad boys don't keep their weapons slung when they meet up with Indians when both sides are patrolling. Those horrible, bad aggressors are now holding their rifles in their hands. (b) The protocol is that if an encounter takes place, both sides are to simultaneously withdraw to avoid escalation. Those bad, bad people now don't withdraw till the Indians are out of sight. (c) In one incident, India objected to a bulldozer being used to make a road in Indian claim territory. Those Oppositional Defiant Disorder Chinese didn't take their bulldozer away for four days.

o May we politely suggest some simple remedies the Government of India can utilize? (a) If the Chinese soldiers have their rifles in their hands, shift immediately to a combat posture because what they're doing is a threat. Allow your soldiers to take measures to defend themselves. (b) If the Chinese don't withdraw, don't move and call up reinforcements. (c) If they don't get their dumb bulldozer out of your territory, blow up the stupid thing.

o At which point the Morons who run India go pale and rush for the bathrooms. But this could escalate things! they will wail.

o First, no it won't. The Chinese are signaling, and their reaction depends strictly on your reaction. If they can push you around, they will, and then push you some more the next time. It's your responsibility, not theirs, to counter. Second, if it escalates, it escalates. You can't avoid a showdown by running for it.

o The Chinese have made clear - and why do we have to have them make it clear, don't we have enough experience dealing with the Chinese these last sixty years - the only thing they respect is force. So force them. If they want to fight, it is your moral duty to give them a fight. That's the only way they'll learn.

0230 GMT September 28, 2010

o Ahead of the DPRK committee meeting that the first in decades, Kim the Third, a youth of but a few summers, has been made a general in the military. That's General Kim Jong Un, people. Get used to the name. Kim the Second also made his sister into a general. So lets see what happens at the meeting.

o Hugo doesn't quite make the 60% of parliamentary seats he needs to be able to tell Parliament to declare itself powerless and let him rule with checks. Moreover, the opposition - who boycotted the last election as rigged, but decide to participate in this one - says it has 52% of the popular vote. The Election Commission says it has made no such announcement, but the vote in Venezuela is electronic, and presumably the opposition has sympathizers in the commission who gave out this figure.

o Hugo, we want to tell you that we, at Orbat.com, don't believe a word of what the opposition says. If they prevented you from getting your supermajority, obviously they rigged the election run by your Election Commission and we trust heads will roll. You have full control of your country's oil revenues, which you disperse as your personal largesse, and we trust you will efficiently bribe and rig your way to becoming Prez-For-Life in 2012. We are vested in you, Hugo. Without you, who will we make fun of? Life will cease to have any meaning. So please step up the bribery, corruption, arrests, and violence, and do it properly this time.

o Meanwhile, a professional clown in Brazil who is expected to win a million votes and a seat in Brazil's congressional elections held Sunday, has to prove to a judge he can read and write. Literacy is a requirement for standing for election, and the clown may be illiterate.

o So we'd like to ask the learned judge: an illiterate clown cannot be a politician, but literate politicians who act like clowns are fine?

o The Molly Norris who no longer exists Reader Luxembourg reminded us we have not mentioned this story. Molly Norris, a cartoonist for a Seattle paper, drew a cartoon which features a placard saying "Everyone draw Muhammad Day". Some random Iranian cleric issued a fatwa calling for her killing. Molly has disappeared. FBI says it did not insist she disappear, they just told her options in the face of this threat, and if she disappeared, that's her choice.

o Might it be the FBI said: "All the measures we suggest may prove ineffective if someone really wants to kill you," at which point she sensibly decided to disappear.

o Luxembourg points out that the US administration has had nothing to say about this affair.

o When Editor was a wee babe in arms, he was told the fundamental, the basic, the core function of a government is to protect its people. if a government does not protect its people, then it has failed and there is no justification for the money it takes from us and for the powers it justifies on grounds of protecting us. This is not Libertarian thinking, or conservative thinking, or whatever, its just common sense. It doesn't matter what else the government does for us, if it cannot protect our lives, it hasn't done its job.

0230 GMT September 27, 2010

o US helicopters kill 30 Haqqani fighters inside Pakistan reports Dawn of Pakistan citing ISAF sources. The fighters attacked a US outpost 13 kilometers inside Afghanistan from the border and were pursed by attack helicopters to a distance of 10-km inside Pakistan.

o Iranian Revolutionary Guards pursuing Kurdish rebels inside Iraq says BBC, citing Teheran. The rebels are supposed to have bombed a military parade on September 22, killing - Iran says - 12 people, mainly women and children. The Iranians say they have killed 30 rebels and are continuing their pursuit of two remaining rebels.

o US to engage with Somaliland and Puntland says BBC. Somaliland is in the north of Somalia and broke away several years ago, though its independence is generally not recognized. Though people speak of Puntland as a breakaway region of Somalia, as far as we know, it is an autonomous and not breakaway region.

o What engagement means is not defined, but the object is to stop al-Shaabab infiltration/attacks against the two regions. They need equipment and money our guess is the sums will be in the seven figures rather than eight.

o Japan issues pathetic excuse for letting Chinese captain go Government says it had nothing to do with the decisions, prosecutors took it after deciding the fight with China wasn't worth it. We guess Japanese prosecutors must be powerful indeed, if they can take independent decisions not just on legal matters but on matters involving foreign relations.

o Israeli anti-rocket battery was delivered to an air force base last month. The Iron Dome system has a radar/command vehicle and three launchers each with 20 missiles. Minmax ranges are 4-10 Km. The system is design specifically against Hamas and Hezbollah rockets.

o The current battery is being used to train additional crews. As far as we know two more batteries are to deploy this year.

o India to acquire seven more Il-76/Phalcon AWACS The first batch of three has been delivered, and seven more will be purchased. India says this will enable the provision of continuous AWACS cover for the country, but we are unsure on what basis this is being calculated. The aircraft's radar has has a 400-km range; our calculation is a minimum of five up is required. And for each aircraft up you need three back, plus a few more for attrition and training. An AEW based on an Embrarer jet is also being acquired, the first order is for three as far as we know. Presumably this will be a gap filler. Having two different systems is a good idea.

0230 GMT September 26, 2010

o Trawler Incident: Bits and Pieces The Japanese decision to free the Chinese trawler captain apparently came after the Chinese arrested four Japanese who work in China on charges of photographing a sensitive military installation. Though their Captain is free, China does not think the incident is over: it is demanding an apology and compensation. Japan is saying that is out of the question, so lets see where the Chinese take this.

o Meantime, without the least sense of irony, a US State Department official approves the Japanese action in releasing the captain. He says this is diplomacy, and diplomacy is what mature nations engage in. First time we've heard of running up the yellow flag called "diplomacy". Is this an indicator of what US policy is going to do when next the Chinese create an incident? Capitulate and call itself mature?

Why did we say America has become ungovernable?

Below is one reason, and yes, its relevant to the GWOT and to the odds of America remaining first in the world.

o Hypocrisy: Democrats The Democrats ask what precisely is the point of the Republicans planning to cut $1-trillion in spending over the next ten years (we've multiplied the $100-billion proposed annual spending cut by 10 for easy comparison with the deficit) when extending the Bush tax cuts will add $3-trillion to the deficit in the next 10 years. Great point, Dems. That must be why you're willing to extend the Bush tax cuts.

o Hypocrisy: Republicans Aha! Bet you think that we're about to point out that the Republicans have carefully avoided saying where they will cut $100-billion a year from, only that this will be decided in adult conversations. Actually, we weren't about to make that point.

o Republicans are saying the government is bloated and should be cut. Great point, Reps. So tell us, where is this bloated government located? Not in the US. In 1967 US population was ~190-million, and government employees (Federal) numbered 2.1-million give or take a hundred thousand. That's 43-years ago - almost half-a-century. Today the US has 310-million people. And the federales consist of - 2.1-million people.

o Moreover, four-fifths of the employees added in the last ten years, during eight of which a Republican was the President, have been for domestic security after 9/11. Editor, at least, is willing to have a debate on if this number should be reduced: there is a case to be made for "yes". But good luck selling this to the country when the Dems get after you.

o Next, have the Republicans done a study on how many jobs have been outsourced at great expense because the federal workforce has been reduced per 100,000 population in the last 43 years? Certainly we haven't, but we can tell you in the military, jobs outsourced and filled by Americans cost up to three times what military personnel would cost. And yes, the average government servant gets paid more than the the average American. But how many Wal Mart greeters and lawn mowers does the federal government employ? How many hair cutters and store sales clerks?

o The Tea Party Now one thing we have to admit: the Tea Party has at least laid out its doctrine on reducing the government. We leave it to readers decide if the position is practical and if the US public will actually accept those cuts. That isn't our point. We're saying practical or not, the TP wants to cut government to pre-1932 levels. That's a plan. The Dems and Reps don't have a plan.

o Opposite view The other day we related prevailing wisdom that the Tea Party will destroy Republican hopes of getting control of the Senate. We need to make two points from the Tea Party's side, for fairness.

o First, the TP does not care if the Republicans are hit 'coz as far as its concerned, the choice between Dems and Reps is the choice between Donkey Poopy and Elephant Poopy. Which is to say, no choice at all.

o Second, TP strategists agree they will likely not win three senate seats where their candidate will run against the Dems (someone explained it to us, but we find US politics so confusing we're not sure we got the number right). And if we recall correctly what was said to us, these will be seats in Delaware, Nevada, and Alaska. BUT: says Tea Party in other Tea Party contests their candidate has - at least as of now - a clear majority vote. So TP will win those seats, and if the Reps lose, please refer to the Poopys above.

o Does this mean we'll have the makings of a three-party system? Well, what's wrong with that. One reason so many Americans don't vote is they feel neither side is worth voting for. Maybe a third party - and a fourth, of lefties, is what this country needs to increase voter participation. In 2008, it is said the highest percentage ever of Americans turned out for a presidential vote, 64%. But that means one third of voters were left out. And since President Obama got 53% of the 64% vote, you can see he was elected president with a third of Americans backing him. Same is true of other presidential elections, of course - we are not criticizing President Obama.

o As far as we're concerned. anything that increases the turnout is for the good.

o (Yes, we are aware that America is a republic and not a democracy - our eldest has explained this patiently to us. We are aware of the dangers that will arise if this country is made into a representative democracy.)

Letters

o From Ashutosh Malik on the Trawler Incident I was hoping that the Japanese will call the Chinese bluff by holding on. What intrigues me is that Japan is still not weak, so what has happened to them? At least they are probably not like the American businessmen that you wrote about today! Then why did they give up so easily? Is there something more to it than just giving up to Chinese hectoring? Could this be a tactical retreat? I have a feeling that it is not a tactical retreat and that they are turning to be like Europeans.

o Has the Americanization/ Modernizations of Japanese society led to diminishing of the martial spirit of the Japanese. I mean, here is a country that 30 years ago was supposedly going to replace US as the foremost power! All over the US, we had demagogues talking of the Japanese taking over the American businesses, buying American landmark building etc, and that famous incident of George Bush senior vomiting in Japan being hyped up as the end of American dominance!

o And here we have nincompoops in India thinking that we can create some kind of an alliance with Americans, to protect our interests for some time. And doing exercises with Japanese, Australians, and Americans etc - when all these countries individually are giving up against Chinese one by one.

The earlier we get over the current generation of leaders the better it is likely for us. I suspect that when we as a nation get more confident we are likely to get the people from the hinterland to start leading India and that is what will take us forward. The city slicks that I see on TV shows at least seem to be rather apologetic about being powerful or too much of the liberal thing is eating into the innards of our nation.

0230 GMT September 25, 2010

Japan Surrenders

o We rarely write two successive lengthy editorials on the same subject. This time we have no choice because after we wrote yesterday's post, Japan released the arrested Chinese trawler captain. We'll get back to that in a moment.

o First, we need to clarify a point we made yesterday. The exports of both countries we mentioned to each other are only for machinery, aircraft, and high tech stuff. The total Sino-US trade is bigger, with the US also exporting agricultural commodities, and China exporting clothes, toys, footwear, leather goods and furniture. Again the disproportion is very high: US imports of just these non-essentials items are $82-billion, exceeding the total US exports to China of $69-billion. Overall China exported $296-billion to the US in 2009, resulting in a US trade deficit with China alone of $226-billion

o Second, lets talk about rare earths. Someone in America came out of the Night of the Living Dead state this country lives in, and did a quick calculation. If US cannot get its rare earths from China, it will take fifteen years for the US to gear up its own production. We've been a bit confused on this rare earth business, because when we last followed US strategic materials situation, it was the 1980s, and we recalled US used to dominate the market. So what happened?

o Well, its not that we ran out of rare earths. We couldn't compete with China when China entered the market and dropped prices. And as the US has for at least 40 years, environmental concerns were put ahead of strategic or job concerns, and in 2002, US production almost ceased.

o China now supplies 97% of the world's rare earths. We've been meaning to tell readers about an ominous development for some months: China has imposed export quotas on rare earths because it says it needs them itself, and has started reducing 2010 quotas compared to 2009. (Of course, the Chinese are so honest and so committed to free trade that any thoughts they are using their global monopoly to push up prices are completely unfounded. We're so evil to have even though that.)

o OK. Now read http://www.eenews.net/public/Landletter/2010/07/22/1 Thissums up the US rare earth situation. US can, by 202, ramp up light rare earth production from the current 2000-tons to 20,000-ton. Now the caveats. You may ask: US is still producing rare earths of any sorts? Tut, tut, people are so naive. The 2000-tons is refined from existing tailings - no new mining has been happening in eight years. Okay, two years to partially fill the light rare earth deficit is a start, isn't it?

o Not so fast, people. The company needs half-a-billion to restart production. There is a rare kind of turtle involved. There is a special tree involved. These issues have to be resolved.

o What about heavy rare earths? US has them in abundance. But the biggest deposit lies in the Tongass National Park. Good luck, everyone.

o So you see, fifteen years for self-sufficiency is not an unreasonable estimate.

o Now back to China American capacity for self-delusion is so great that people are saying: "Well, OK, Japan lost, but China also lost because now its neighbors know how aggressive it can be." Say what, again, please? China's neighbors have known for years how aggressive it can be because the country has been throwing its weight in the neighborhood around for years. Everyone from India to Thailand to Vietnam to the Philippines to Taiwan to Japan to South Korea already know how aggressive the Chinese can be, and they also know there's very little they can do about as China's power grows.

o If anyone things the Chinese lost a single centimeter in the recent dispute, they are definitely in Zombie Land.

o The most you can say is that the Americans - some of them - may have woken up to the threat. But you can be assured of one thing. Americans will go to sleep again.

o Why? Because a significant and growing fraction of American capitalism has already subordinated itself to China. If any rumblings arise that we need to change this, the American companies that gain from China will simply pay off Congress to negate action.

o Because we get into trouble with some of our readers, we hasten to explain we are NOT saying socialism is superior to capitalism. We are simply saying our capitalists, who once had a partnership with labor, no longer depend on Americans for anything except to consume Chinese goods on credit. Our capitalists have gone from being Americans first to globalists first. They owe no loyalty to this country. Their sole loyalty is to their bottom line. They will fight and fight and fight to preserve their profits from the China trade. As Chinese GDP grows, there will be more money for them to make, and they will fight even harder.

o If that means America goes down the drain, that's fine with these particular Americans. When America goes down the drain, they'll have plenty of capital to get onto the next big scam.

o Our duty at Orbat.com is to warn our readers: in Japan's surrender we see the diminishment of America. Japan is America's staunchest ally in the Pacific. That ally just hoisted the yellow flag, over an incident which was deliberately provoked by the Chinese. Does anyone thing that China would have escalated this situation if it had been one silly captain who was perhaps drunk decided to ram a Japanese patrol boat? Perhaps the captain was really being an idiot. But the speed with which China seized on an totally insignificant matter to beat Japan over the head shows that the Chinese were ready and waiting to make their point. They have made their point.

o One of the points the Chinese will push next - have already begun to - is to exclude the US Navy from the China Seas and to claim the China Seas as their territorial waters, in which no one else can drill for hydrocarbons. May take them 10 years, or 20. But the Chinese are patient.

0230 GMT September 24, 2010

o China-Japan trawler dispute keeps escalating Earlier, China cancelled Japan-China Cabinet-level meetings and China's Premier, visiting New York, demanded (not "asked" as we reported yesterday) that Japan release the trawler captain.

o Consequently, Japan's tourism minister declined to meet with a delegation from the China National Tourism Administration. The CNTA reports to the State Council, but is not a ministry. So we assume the Vice Chairman, who headed the delegation, is a minister.

o China then "requested" its tourist agencies not to promote any further tours of Japan. Tours already booked will go forward.

o Next, New York Times reports from Hong Kong that China has halted the exports of rare earths to Japan. China is the almost a sole producer of rare earths, which are vital for the electronic and hybrid auto market. So this is not just a symbolic slap.

o In the past we have warned of American complacence regarding its China trade. As more and more manufacturing shifts from America to China, many Americans who should know better have said that the Chinese would not be so foolish as to use trade as a weapon against America.

o What the Americans really mean to say is that America will not use trade as a weapon to China, because pardon our French, but basically we're standing her in our skivvies, the Chinese have taken everything else off our backs.

o It is a huge mistake to mirror image. China has entered the world stage not just with a giant chip on its shoulder, but aggressively snarling and biting. Remember our old buddy Mao, and his instructions on guerilla war - when the enemy is strong, we retreat, when the enemy is weak, we advance. So in this matter of trade, particularly of manufactured items as opposed to clothing, toys, shoes and furniture, which in an emergency America can do without, we will ask readers to answer a one-question quiz: who is stronger, China or America?

o The answer may be found at http://www.uschina.org/statistics/tradetable.html In 2009, America exported to China $29-billion of manufactures such as electric, power generation, optical and medical machinery and equipment, as well as aviation items and vehicles excluding railways. Keep that in mind, please: $29-billion.

o In 2009, China exported to the US $141-billion worth of goods, almost all of it electrical and power generation equipment. Very approximately, that's a 1:5 ratio. And incidentally, even in something like optics and medical equipment, which you'd think is high tech and should not to be imported, China exports to the US $6-billion and imports $4-billion.

o Now, what part of this equation do American capitalists, who have sold out the country to the Chinese communists, not understand?

o The trawler incident is a terribly minor affair Yet the Chinese are going bananas, and not in a nice Woody Allen sort of way. They are retaliating left and right against Japan having passed Japan in GDP just a couple of months ago. Their actions defy logic, and are completely disproportionate. If this is the way they react to the maritime equivalent of a road rage fender bender, imagine how they going to react if there is some issue that is of real importance to them - particularly as they keep closing up on the US in GDP. If Chinese growth suddenly slows to 8%, they will reach $10-trillion GDP by 2019, and if it slows further to 6%, China will surpass the US in GDP by 2034. We assume a 3% growth for the US. That's only 25 years down range.

o Please note that we are not using maximum figures such as a continued 12-13% growth slowing to 10% or so. we're using modest growth figures of 8% for the next ten years or so and then 6% for the next ten.

o Why are the Chinese acting this way? Simple. While US Giant Intellectuals (GI, which also stands for Gastro-Intenstinal tract, and you know what that does: it turns perfectly good food into poop, which is a pretty good metaphor for what American GI's of every political stripe have done to this country) believe that they can coax China into being a responsible member of the global system, there is a sad, sad reality.

o It's not mirror imaging. It's that when US was clearly Number 1, between 1945-70, US stomped the heck out of other nations simply because it could. That's the nature of power. The US would not be talking about integrating China into a global system - which by no coincidence is a global system that suits us - if we were still Numero Uno. America has spent the better part of the last century espousing the doctrine of American exceptionalism.

o So why on earth do we expect that China will not do the same when it is on top? And folks, the Chinese have believed in their exceptionalism for at least 500 years - we stand to be corrected by those better informed about Chinese history - as opposed to our 100.

o When you have a history of 3000 years, a bad hundred years or so, as China went through in the 19th-20th Century, is easily shrugged off. The Chinese are simply reverting to type. Yes, back in 1500 they could believe they were Number 1 and insist others kowtow. But given the communications, and given that the Industrial Revolution pushed them from the world's biggest economy to some level of microscopic insignificance, there was nothing they could do except stomp on neighbors like Tibet.

o But now they can do something to assert themselves. And they will.

o We see no chance whatsoever that America will heed the lessons of the trawler incident. There's still all too many cockerels strutting around Washington thinking that just because we can destroy any armed force on earth with our conventional weapons, we are the Best, the Greatest, the Smartest, the Meanest, or whatever. It's going to take something like Taiwan's "voluntary" merger with China before average Americans start understanding what we are has beens. If we don't see how we've declined, how can we rebuild and reclaim our top position.

o (Before the Industrial Revolution, GDP was determined by how many people a country had because everything was made by hand. So China had the world's largest GDP, and India the second largest.)

0230 GMT September 23, 2010

o A generational war Bob Woodward has written a book on President Obama and the Afghan War which was reviewed in the Washington Post. Two things struck us - not necessarily the most important aspects of the book,

o First, President Obama's theme song with his military leaders may well be "I can't get no satisfaction." The more he asks them for answers, saying the US cannot just keep slogging on and on at huge cost, the more his commanders stonewall on how they propose to win/end this war, except to sat they need more troops.

o Second, General Petraeus makes it clear Afghanistan is a generational war - our children will still be fighting it.

o Now, we have no problem with the concept of a generational war. We ourselves have said the GWOT will take a hundred years. The problem is, as we have said, if you are going to fight a generational war, then it has to be done economically. We cannot keep 100,000 troops and spend $100-billion a year just in this one arena. If war is the continuation of politics by other means, anything short of total war and unconditional surrender has to be fought keeping political issues in mind. Politically, a 50+ year war at this level is unsustainable, and the good general of all people should know this.

o We've given our prescription for a long war strategy several times: no more than 25,000 US troops, preferably less, holding the five main cities - which is all the Government has controlled at any time in recent history, and using the inkblot strategy to get the Afghan forces to expand outward. No more than $25-billion a year. Then you can fight forever.

o US strategists assume they are shaping the war and the battlefield, i.e., the Taliban is dancing to our tune. Wrong. We are dancing to the Taliban's tune.

o Another pointless Taliban attack Bill Roggio reports that since end-August the Haqqani network has carried out four major attacks on US bases in Eastern Afghanistan. In the latest one the Taliban attacked a US outpost at Khost. This time they didn't even get to begin their attack because they were detected by aerial surveillance and ground-based cameras before they got into position. Attack helicopters responded. killing 27.

o We thought the saying went "Live and Learn." Taliban's motto seems to "Die and Never Learn."

o China-Japan trawler incident update The Chinese Prime Minister, who is visiting UN Headquarters, has asked Japan to release the captain of its trawler. Japan says the Senkaku Islands, where the incident took place, are not disputed territory, and belong to Japan. The intrusion is Japan's domestic problem and will be dealt with as such.

o India and the SAM-10 For years people have been saying that India has the SAM-10 (S-300) SAM/ABM. Three batteries are supposed to have been acquired, one for Delhi, one for Bombay, and a third battery no one knows where, but speculation is it has been disbanded and the equipment given to the India's defense R and D people to help develop an indigenous ABM.

o Several years ago a very knowledgeable person told us India did not buy the SA-10 or anything like that from Russia. Yesterday another informed source said the same thing.

o If anyone has any ideas on this, please write.

o A Washington Tale A lady attends a function at which the US President will be present. She drives into town, finds a parking space near the function, puts up a handicapped tag, takes a small purse with her after locking up her regular purse with her credit cards and so on, and goes off to the function. When she returns, no sign of the car. The police tell her that cars from that street have been removed for security reasons.

o Being the Capital of the Free World, the police's next move is no surprise. They tell the lady they haven't a clue as to where her car was towed: they just call a towing company, towing company dumps the car in the first available parking space wherever, and that's the end of it. They don't know which towing company took the car.

o So Washington Post writes up a long front-page story about how this lady searches for her car, and it takes her more than a day to find it, going street by street. we are supposed to feel deep empathy for this lady and the shabby way in which the police have treated her.

o But of course, no one feels any empathy at all, because the story make clear the lady is not handicapped, her husband is, and her husband was not accompanying her to the function. That the WashPo would even waste time on this story of wrong-doing by someone and expect us to have sympathy for her, shows just how tone-deaf the newspaper is.

o OK, so the DC police are morons in the matter of towed cars, and don't feel the slightest responsibility for cars towed for security reasons - without any intimation to the owners, such as signs saying: No parking today or whatever. This is not news. That the WashPo wastes space on a stupid story - first page, as if this is top national or world news - and is run by morons is also not news. The a lady with no right to use the handicapped tag that belongs to her husband ($250 fine) is also no news. This happens all the time in the US and in UK too. In fact, at Editor's YWCA there is a very healthy lady who parks her car in a handicapped space, puts up the tag, and then leaps away like a gazelle to engage in a vigorous workout. She is stronger and in far better shape than the Editor, who kind of gasps and wheezes his way through his daily work out, crawls out on his hands and knees, barely makes it home, and then lies on the floor panting for breath for an hour before he recovers.

o No. The real news is that the lady has defended her behavior. On what grounds? She says she has to work and look after her husband and family, and she deserves a break like not having to walk a few blocks to her function. Her husband, needless to say, is perfectly self-sufficient. The lady had to spend the night in town, and till she found her car she needed clothes etc as she couldn't go out searching in her party dress. Husband drove in from the outer suburbs to help her out.

o So there you have it, a little parable of why America is going downhill faster than you know what goes through a goose (Clue: refer to General Patton's sayings). We keep saying: why are we blaming the politicians? Who elects the politicians? We do. If America is to change, the solution is not the politicians change. We have to change.

o And as they say in America, good luck with that.

0230 GMT September 22, 2010

o PRC-Japan fishing boat incident PRC supporters are saying Japan to choose to escalate the incident where a PRC fishing boat collided with two Japanese patrol boats off the Senkaku Islands, administered by Japan but claimed by China. Incidents have happened before, and the offender is let off with a warning or a fine. By arresting the crew, and still refusing to let the captain go free, Japan has upped the ante.

o Japan supporters say that Japan had no choice but to take action because the Chinese have been continually pushing them.

o The PRC has all but suspended official exchanges with Japan, and continues to keep calling the Japanese ambassador in Beijing to express its strong objections to the detention of the boat captain.

o The problem is that the Japanese have video showing the Chinese captain changed course to deliberately hit one of the two Japanese Coast Guard vessels. They want to put him on trial. The Japanese further complain that China is not addressing the incident, and is instead saying the captain has to be let go because he was in Chinese waters.

o Nothing good can come out of China escalating this incident, particularly because suspicions are Beijing was waiting for something to happen so it could send Tokyo a message by acting tough. It is up to the Japanese whether they want to becomes vassals of China - because this is where things are headed, and no, we are not exaggerating - or are they going to stand up for themselves. If the Chinese are blatantly throwing their weight around now, you can guess what will happen when by 2025 they overtake the US in GDP. You can either be a good neighbor or a bully, no need to guess which course the Chinese have chosen.

o We searched several pages of China's Xinhua last night and found no recent news about the incident. We don't know enough to be able to say if China is trying to cool tensions. The Japanese side of the story can be found at http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201009210295.html

o Swedish elections The ruling center-right party has failed to reach a majority because an anti-immigration party grabbed 20 seats. The ruling party has asked Swedish Greens to join, but the Green leader say they have no mandate from their voters for such a coalition. Apparently one of seven Swedes is now foreign born, and in a small, formerly homogeneous country this is creating problems.

o US working on using F-15 to intercept ballistic missiles We read about this in a Popular Mechanics published in June 2010 while at the gym. Apparently the F-15s new AESA radar already provides a capability to shoot-down cruise missiles. US is also working on using the F-15 as a spotter for the F-22 Raptor. Radar leakage from the F-22 is low, but still detectable. Apparently the F-15 can use its radar at ranges outside the detecting capability of any adversary aircraft. So it will seek and identify aerial targets and hand them off to the F-22 to shoot, eliminating the need for the F-22 to switch on its radar.

o Talking about the gym. You know you're getting old when you rush to get the door for a cute - and undoubtedly highly intelligent - young lady, and she beats you to it and holds it open for you. You also know you're getting very old when you are discussing Paris Hilton latest escapade with a member - we refer to her denied entry to Japan on account of the recent drug charge, where she arrived in her private jet for a fashion show - and you and the member vote on whom you'd rather have, Ms. Hilton or the private jet.

o (Don't wait for an answer, folks. When you get old you'll know for yourself.)

0230 GMT September 21, 2010

o Dear Leader III to be confirmed September 28 We'd mentioned the other day that the DPRK party convention to announce Dear Leader II's son will become Dear Leader III had been postponed. Now it will be held September 28. We're curious as to how a person who is not yet 30 is supposed to lead DPRK. Unless DL II manages to hang in there a decade or two, we don't think this hereditary succession will work.

o BBC at it again BBC says India has half-a-million troops in the Kashmir Valley. We've been through this before, but India does not have half-million troops in the Valley. It has that many in Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh, which in the press is usually wrongly referred to as "Kashmir". The people of Jammu and Ladakh are not asking to secede, and we'd be happier if the Government of India would make this distinction clear by dividing the region into three states so that everyone understands what they're talking about.

o The purpose of at least 90% of those troops has nothing to do with internal policing. Kashmir could become somnolent tomorrow and not one of those troops would be moved anywhere else, because they are for the defense of the region against Pakistan and China.

o As for the remaining troops, the bulk are armed police from the Central Reserve Police Force. Any big-city US SWAT team is far better equipped, but we don't go around calling American police "troops".

o The big problem with the CRPF is that 63 years after independence, it is still a riot-control force and nothing more. It is used to pacify areas where Indian citizens are busy having at it bashing up other Indian citizens. It is absolutely not trained for situations where citizens daily target the force using violent means.

o The CRPF is normally called in when the law-and-order situation gets out of the hand of local police, the great majority of whom are unarmed. In Kashmir it has been continuously deployed in the region for going on 25 years now. One would think that the Government of India would have by now made the force effective at what is doing. One might equally hope for a date with Miss Universe. The latter is more likely to happen than the former.

o Satan and the Tea Party Even without the recent discussion in the blog about the US Tea Party, we'd likely have mentioned this story. A Tea Party candidate in Delaware defeated the Republican incumbent in the recent primaries. In the US, understandably, when you become a serious candidate for office, people start going through every scrap of information about you.

o So the media has uncovered the life-and-death information that in her young days, the candidate had participated in a satanic ritual, consisting of having a midnight snack sitting on an alter dedicated to the Old Boy. (We're confident we can refer to him as the Old Boy because he's been around since God has been around.) The candidate has dismissed this as silly youthful high jinks, and we agree. We're not sure why its being brought up - more on this in a minute.

o Now, once upon a time your Editor was a student of magic thanks to the interest shown in the subject by the wife d'jour, and he still can cast a spell or two in matters of love. (The way this is done if A has the hots for B, the Editor, in his capacity as a magician will go to B, and say "A has the hots for you". Its all terribly subtle, requires decades of deep learning, and if the spell goes wrong, dangerous. Dangerous because sometimes B will pick up a skillet and whack the magician upside the head, and say "Now you go tell that worthless so-and-son next time he brings it up I will whack him upside-the-head twice. That was just a taste of what will happen to him.")

o Anyway, we digress. American Satanism, particularly as practiced by youngsters, is about as harm-inducing as attacking someone with a dandelion. It really isn't satanic by any reasonable definition. Think of Stalin telling a political enemy: "I will now beat you to death with dandelion" and you get the picture.

o At which point we acknowledge that you have been waiting to say "BUT..." and you're right. If the good TP candidate's opponent had engaged in some mild silliness re. the Old Boy, we can be sure she would not have let this matter go.

o OK, fair enough. Editor just wanted to clear the air about Satan and all that. But there is a serious point to be made. In the age of the Internet no one can (a) escape the past; (b) it is near impossible to fight wrong allegations.

o The other point to be made is not serious. This is what American politics has come to, that we are having a serious political discussion about something completely unserious.

o Letter from Shawn Dudley on the Tea Party Regarding the Tea Party and the war, readers and the editor should be aware that if there is ANY true point of agreement of the loose knit members of the TP it's on two issues: 1) US Government needs to really cut back on the credit card and 2) Absolutely unequivocal support of the US military. Note on Point #2: this doesn't mean that there's support for every war, such as Iraq or Afghanistan. In fact much of the TP criticism was that government money was wasted in both wars in exactly the same manner that government wastes money on everything else.

o What this DOES mean is that if the TP are in power and there's another attack on the country, the TP-led government is truly and actually not going to concern itself about Geneva, the UN, or the non-English speaking members of the UN Security Council. For decades the activist left has been screaming about a neo-fascist US war machine, but in a TP-led government they may in fact see an incredibly unrestrained war effort such has not been seen since WWII.

o Just imagine this scenario: In 2012 Sarah Palin is elected President with a massive groundwell of TP support (plus the current occupant is less popular than IRS agents by the '12 election). The following month Iran decides it's time to hail in the Mahdi and goes "all-in" against Israel during the presidential transition period. If Iran drops the Big One on Israel, do you really think Obama's going do do anything about it in the last two months of his presidency other than make lots of speeches? What will be Mrs. Palin's first order of business when she occupies 1600 Penn? Just use the imagination, if you will.

o Don't underestimate either the Tea Party's resolve to change the US government, nor the likely result if such a new government should find itself or its most key ally (Israel, without any doubt) attacked. Truly it would shake the world. And that would be a good thing.

o On illegal killing of civilians by US soldiers "We're shocked so few do, and we're shocked everyone starts moaning and groaning when soldiers do go mental."

o This is a step-by-step distortion of the image US is so carefully trying to cultivate for itself. First, when Wikileaks alleged war crimes by NATO, it was called baseless and without proof. Instead of acting on the message, the US chose to target the messenger. It is still out to get Julian Assange on some charge or the other. Now, when there are serious allegations of 'shooting for sport', which are war crimes of the worst kind, you kind-of justify it saying it was inevitable given the conditions? This is like saying women bring rape upon themselves by not dressing modestly.

o By this yardstick, anyone with any grouse would take a weapon and go berserk - a worker in a lathe machine, a long-hours shift policeman, a coal miner, a frustrated software employee with a bad boss - pretty much anyone. American citizens (though pretty much no one else agrees with them) see their country as a champion of human rights and liberties all over the world. Especially so in the 'third-world' dominated by despots. So naturally it shocks them to see their own human rights champion comrades kill civilians. Its really time they smelt the coffee and learnt their place as yet another nation in the world, jostling with others for space in the social, economic, military and cultural spheres.

0230 GMT September 20, 2010

o We're shocked, shocked First America keeps sending soldiers who serve one year tours in brutal conditions back for more tours, again and again. Then we get shocked that some of our boys become cold-blooded killers. We refer to the case of a platoon from Fifth Brigade, 2nd Division killing Afghan civilians for sport.

o Does the Government of the United States honestly believe it can keep sending youngsters to fight in pointless wars, repeatedly, and get away with no collateral damage to the psychological balance of our soldiers?

o The alleged ringleader has gone once to Iraq and twice to Afghanistan in six years.

o What we're shocked about is not that US soldiers go mental, as the Indians put it. We're shocked so few do, and we're shocked everyone starts moaning and groaning when soldiers do go mental.

o We're told that the American objective in Afghanistan is to ensure a stable government so that AQ cannot establish a base. In which case, Mission accomplished, lets come home. AQ's bases are in Pakistan, not in Afghanistan.

o Oh, someone will say, but we need a stable Afghanistan so that in future AQ will not establish (or reestablish) itself in Afghanistan. Great. So shall we go to war in Somalia, Yemen, and the Mahgreb first to kick out AQ and then make sure it doesn't return?

o While we're at it, shall we send 200,000 troops to help the Russians in the Caucuses? AQ has presence there, we'd better make sure they don't get a chance to establish themselves. On the former Soviet Muslim republics of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan you have rising Islamist insurgencies who don't call themselves AQ, but they work with AQ and they espouse many of the same aims. Better invade these countries, fast.

o Lets not forget Pakistan, where AQ very much is, and Bangladesh, Indonesia, and the Philippines where it could establish itself. Given more time, say 20-years down the line, it's easy to think of another 20-30 countries where AQ could establish itself. Better to move now and forestall them.

o Yesterday the Washington Post said that the Obama Administration sees no need for the previously planned December 2010 strategy review because it believes the American public will support the existing strategy.

o People say President Obama is a foreigner because he wasn't born in America. (Next thing you know the Hawaiians are going to demand independence on the grounds of "you said Obama was not born in America, QED, we are not America.)

o Out theory is that Mr. Obama and his advisors and the Congresspersons who support the Afghan War were definitely not born in America, or even on earth, or not even in this galaxy, heck, not even in this universe.

o Why do we say that? Because the Washington Post told us the Administration says Americans support its strategy in Afghanistan.

o X-Cuze us, when did a bunch of asses passing smelly gas become a strategy? Maybe in some other universe. Definitely not in this universe.

o Letter on Tea Party from Nagarajan Sivakumar your site is pretty much dedicated to the happenings in the GWOT. This is why i was surprised that you had a post where you called the Tea Party grassroots movement as "extreme right wing".

o I came back to India after having lived and worked in the US for almost 10 years - from 2000 to 2010. As a 23 year old, I initially went to Buffalo, NY for pursuing an M.S in Computer Science and after graduating from school, i went to work. These last ten years (or my American decade as i tend to call it) have probably shaped my adult life and my perceptions of politics forever. I started out as a lefty but i consider myself firmly, right of center.

o I have never understood what EXTREME right wing was to begin with when it comes to American politics - you don't need to be gentle here, you can tell me what this horrible extreme right wing thing is, the way you see it.

o But i have to ask you again, Michael's question - please let us know what exactly is EXTREME about the Tea Party ? What is exactly wrong or extreme about their aspirations to return America to being a constitutional republic, the way the Founding Fathers intended it to be ? i.e. small Government that provides for basic services and national defence but keeps its nose out of an individual's life, his/her God given liberty and respect people's right to live a life that is free of coercion - the kind of coercion that started the Revolutionary War and ultimately made America a free republic.

o I am not sure if you are aware of the origins of the Tea Party - but it all started because of a media reporter called Rick Santelli who works for CNBC news - this was in 2009 when the Obama administration announced a plan to help Americans with mortgage foreclosure problems - Santelli condemned this a way of perversely incentivzing irresponsible people who took out home loans that they could not afford to pay at the expense of those Americans who did not place such risky bets -and that too on their own homes. Santelli ended his rant by asking Americans to come out and have a Tea Party on the 4th of July in 2009 in protest against the US Government's decision.

o This is how the Tea Party got started - people who agreed with Rick Santelli's view of the unfair role of the Federal Government and who were sick of the corporate cronyism that led to the bailouts of financial companies, General motors etc found out that they were not alone in their disgust at how America was proceeding. They gathered with like minded people, friends, relatives using social media like Facebook to organize themselves.... today they are the largest grassroots movement that America has ever seen WITH NO CENTRAL leadership, and no central headquarters.

o They are equally sick of the Republican party of George W Bush and that of the Democrats who never came across a Government program that they did not like to spend more of tax payer money. In fact as you can see, the Tea party activists have been openly campaigning against the establishment candidates of the GOP - i dont know how closely you follow politics, but they have already defeated Charlie Crist in Florida, Mike Castle in Delaware, Lisa Murkowsi in Alaska, Dede Scazzafova in NY-23 - all of them being Republican establishment candidates nominated by the RNC for gubernatorial, senate or congressional seats.

o As people of good faith we can have an honest discussion of whether or not these election victories mean good or bad for the country..ahem.for the US.. But why is it that you have started off with the characterization that the Tea Party is EXTREME RIGHT WING ? Could you please be more specific about the reservations/disagreements that you have with the Tea Party ?

o Editor's Note Personally, I have little interest in anyone's politics leave alone the incredibly boring, moralistic, and hypocritical, and lying politics of my adopted country. To me there is no difference between any American politician, regardless of what s/he calls themselves. You can start out as different, but the things you need to get elected and stay elected in America force you to be the same as anyone else. Similarly, I don't see any Indian politician as different from any other. The difference is that Indian politicians will admit they're corrupt, lying, hypocrites and the American politicians will tell us they act only because the love the people.

o Extreme in the sense I meant it is not a moral judgment. It is simply an assertion that the beliefs or actions of someone are way out of the mainstream. The Tea Party candidates are naifs in the big bad world of American politics, they are not going to change a thing because the American people want to throw tantrums, they don't want change. Because change in America, from whatever quarter it may be initiated, means a goodbye to our past self-indulgent ways and it involves sacrifice. People may talk a good game, but when it comes time, Americans are not prepared to sacrifice.

o So: I do not say the Tea Party is good, bad, or indifferent. It just is, like any other party, and those of its candidates that come to power will learn the hard way what they have to do to stay in power - and that's be like every other politician.

o The next presidential election will be the 13th I will see, and I hope my readers will forgive me if I don't share their youthful, honest hope that this time things will change.

o Back to extremists. I don't think some of Orbat.com's readers know the biggest, fattest extremist of all is sitting right in their middle, and that's the Editor. Let's take a few examples. Editor believes the Partition of India was illegal and that Pakistan is a renegade part of the country engaging in unlawful rebellion against the state. He believes the decisions to call ceasefires in 1948, 1962, 1965, 1971, and 1999 were treasonous acts by the Government of India. Turning to the US, Editor believes the following acts in modern times (of course "modern" depends on how old you are) constitute treason: the Yalta Agreement and the failure to attack the Soviet Union after the defeat of Germany. The decision not to cross the 38th Parallel and the refusal to bomb China. The failure to bomb the Red River Dykes, the refusal till late to attack only military targets in North Vietnam, and the failure to interdict the connections between the Chinese and Vietnamese rail and road systems, including strikes against China. The failure to liberate Saudi Arabia after Iraq fell to the Americans in 2003. The intervention in Afghanistan. Oh yes: biggest treason of all: the adoption of the MAD doctrine and the refusal to build ABM systems.

o Editor's positions are well outside the mainstream. That makes him an extremist.

o Re. Why we mentioned Tea Party in a GWOT blog. Elections are coming; we simply wanted to share with out readers that because of the Tea Party, it does not seem the Republicans will win the Senate, which till recently they were expected to.

0230 GMT September 19, 2010

o Kashmir: The Army returns Just as we feared would happen, the Indian Army has started patrolling in several riot hit areas of Kashmir. This development can portend no good for anyone.

o From the Army's viewpoint, it absolutely hates being deployed on internal security and considers its employment for this purpose to be a misuse by the government. The Army has expressed its extreme reluctance to get reinvolved in internal security, beyond fighting armed insurgents from across the border. The Indian Government, on the verge of a complete panic about Kashmir, has ordered the army back in and of course it must obey.

o The Army is not an instrument for crowd and riot control. It is not trained to deal with civilians. It is supposed to be called in as a last resort when riots spiral into mass killings, and as we've explained, the Army stops the riots by shooting to kill - not anyone who may have a visible weapon, but anyone who is defying the curfew, armed on not. The exercise brutalizes and traumatizes the Army, which is trained as the nation's defender and the protector of the people, not the instrument of their deaths. If you were to put combat formations of the US Army onto the streets to maintain law and order, you would get extreme violence directed against civilians. It is the same with the Indian Army.

o Nor does the Army's return help civilians who are not involved in the riots, because the Army by its very training regards everyone as hostile. It does not help the rioters, because they end up dead.

o Okay, we are the first to concede that the civilian police and paramilitary cannot handle violence of the scale that is taking place in Kashmir. The police and paramilitary panic easily - as well they might when they are confronted in narrow streets by thousands of rioters - and they open fire when they panic. Editor would advise anyone who has NOT seen an Indian mob in action to refrain from gratuitous comments about humane policing. These are not mobs in London or Berlin. They outnumber the police several times over, and they are out to kill.

o The press has been reporting the throwing of stones. People, the stones here are not gravel. They are as big as bricks, and if you get hit on the head with one of these, you are likely well on your way for your performance review with St. Peter. Yes the police have sort of protection. That doesn't lead you to look benignly at 1000 youths advancing on you, each determined to brain you. Anyone would panic. American police shoot people who have knives in their hands, or who refuse to heed orders to throw down their guns. Few people think this is unreasonable. Why do people think its unreasonable Indian police shoot when threatened by mobs of thousands?

o So what is the solution?

o Editor believes the solution is simple. First, withdraw all the extra privileges Kashmiris have. We are not really interested in what extra rights India's first prime-minister, Pandit Nehru may have agreed to before the Maharajah of Kashmir acceded to the Union of India. One side cannot insist that those rights are irrevocable when they are creating a situation of decades long insurgency and unrest that no one foresaw back in 1947. Second, put blame where blame lies. If Kashmiris would just stopped talking and acting seditious, and if they would realize that they have to take responsibility for whether they get good governance from their politicians while remaining within the parameters of the Union of India, no one would have a problem. Third, crack down with all force and stay cracked down. No talks, no political solutions, no conferences, unless each and every participant signs statements acknowledging they are part and parcel of the Union of India. You refuse to sign, then be welcome as a guest of the Government of India in a guesthouse situated on a swamp in the middle of the country where the temperature gets up to 125-degrees in the shade and there seldom is power. No newspapers, TV, visits, mail, nothing.

o Americans have to understand that the rioters are not freedom fighters like the American colonists who revolted against British rule. Kashmir was a Hindu state till the arrival of Islam and the forcible conversion of people and Kashmir was part of India even in Ashoka's time. If it can claim independence, then why cant Oregon, Washington, Northern California and British Columbia claim independence as Arcadia? The day an American tells us, "well, they go off if they want", we will at least concede he speaks with honesty. Except for a minor detail. Americans did not let the secessionists of 1861 go even though the American Constitution did not prohibit secession. They built their country by force and with money: America was born not just out of the Revolutionary War, but before and after with wars against the British, the French, the Mexicans, and the Indians. Americans built their empire by warring against Spain, Germany, Japan, and after 1945 by engaging in a 45 year war against the Communists, Most of that war was fought by proxies, but on our side, they were OUR proxies. When Saddam and AQ threatened America, America fought back with extreme force.

o As partly an American, Editor is perfectly comfortable with America's history, Nations are not built by exchanging pink blankies and blue bunny slippers.

o We also do not want to hear from the British, some of whom still bear India a strange grudge for wanting them to leave. Don't the British realize if they had stayed another hundred years there would be no Britain? It would all be India because that is what India does to invaders. It swallows them up and reshapes them as Indians - doesn't matter if you were white or yellow or purple to begin with.

o Britain has a particularly violent history in the construction of its country - lets forget the Empire for a moment. The wars and the repressions against the Irish, the Scots, and the Welsh were not love-fests, people.

o If Britain has now decided that if former constituents of the United Kingdom want to part company, they can go, fine. Britain is a democracy, the will of the people - not just some of the people - has to be respected. So does the will of the Indian people have to be respected, and it is uniformly against secession. If you go by distrocts - counties in UK and US parlance, you have 8-10 districts where secession minded Kashmirs are in the majority. Would the British let 3 counties form an independent country on their border and would the Americans let 10-15 counties become independent?

o But this doesn't answer one question. Would you, as a Britisher or you as an American, agree to give independence to a part of your country if you knew for a fact 12 hours later your enemy will take over the newly independent country? We don't think so.

o The same question put differently. Would you let part of your country go so that extremists and fundamentalists who are absolutely opposed to your way of live take over and use the new country as a base to attack you?

o The same question put another way. Supposing the area which you are willing to let go has a majority of Protestants, but also large minorities of Catholics, Muslims, and Hindus. Suppose you know from 63 years of history that the Protestants will oppress, kill, and expel the large minorities? Would you still be willing to let a part of your country go?

o Are you, Britain and America, willing to send half a million troops to safeguard the minorities of Kashmir, or will you just stand there and go "tut-tut" as you did when over six decades the Pakistanis and Bangladeshis have thrown out the Hindus? Or when the Pakistanis victimize the Shias and other Islamic sects?

o Now lets ask another question: why is it that Americans and British want India to let Kashmir go but have no problem with Chinese repression over Tibet and Taiwan? Might it be that each time you whisper about Chinese oppression in Tibet, Taiwan, the non-Han west, the Chinese threaten to rearrange your face?

o If so, then we are very sorry, but next time Americans or British say anything India doesn't like about Kashmir, the Indians should start by withdrawing their envoys and telling the American and British to do the same.

o Is this going to happen? Obviously not, because of the 1.3-billion wimps in the world at least 1.1-billion of them are Indian. (India has a population of 1.2-billion.)

o So then what it boils down to is you cannot get the Chinese to change because you don't want a Chinese knuckle sandwich, but you get after the Indians because they're wimps.

o Don't know what you call it now, but when Editor was growing up in America, it was called bullying. And what do we do in America and Britain when there are bullies around? We send them for behavior modification.

o Letter from Reader Michael on the Tea Party Why would you slander Tea party members who are ordinary independent citizens with no party affiliation as,,, ideologically extreme right-wing Tea Party? Is it because they demand constitutional government of a constitution that guarantees a republican form of government? You need to back up your claim. I'm not even sure what you are referring to or referencing. These citizens are from all party affiliations and no party affiliations. They are peaceful and they number in the many millions from all corners of the nation representing the largest single "political" element which is, independent.

What other groups do you wish to label as extremists? Would that not include the Democrat party, the Republican party, government, unions etc? It would seem to fit your criteria.

Perhaps you could label the TEA party as counterrevolutionary?

What is confusing to me is your mention of the county being ungovernable. Then the citizens are demanding "tough governance", which is in effect what the Tea Party is demanding yet you label that as, ideologically extreme right wing. The Tea Party citizens want smaller government or more precisely the limited government clearly conveyed in common law language in the constitution. Clearly both major parties have no love for the Tea Party grass roots movement. The constitution should always be present in public policy and law. Perhaps politicians exercising authority nowhere found in the constitution should beware of high crimes and misdemeanors. Are you familiar with the term, classical liberalism?

o Might mention that the Tea Party party is quite diverse in consistency and voice but seems to convey a general voice of liberty, security, prosperity and of course sound money among other interests.

o Editor's Comment Readers, what do you think about the points Michael has raised?

0230 GMT September 18, 2010

o Winning general of Sri Lanka war sentenced to three years imprisonment after an army court-martial found him guilty as charged on four charges, including participating in political action while in uniform, and warding a contract to a firm in which his son-in-law had and association.

o General S. Fonseca was stripped of his uniform, awards, and pension. The sentence has to be confirmed by the Sri Lanka president, whom General Fonseca challenged for the presidency.

o Kashmir and the Islamist factor Yet another complication in Kashmir is that under the guise of the separatist movement, Islamic funi> Aleft STYding: 0in"> Russia to proceed with anti-ship missile sale to Syria despite US and Israeli objections. The P-800 is a supersonic missile and Israel is concerned that Syria will transfer the weapons to Hezbollah.

o In the 2006 Lebanon War Hezbollah used a Chinese made Silkworm ASM against an Israeli corvette, killing four sailors. The Silkworm is a big fat missile, we're surprised that the corvette didn't sink.

o On October 21, 1967 Egypt made history by being the first to sink a warship - the Israeli destroyer Eilat (former Royal Navy HMS Zealous ) - with anti-ship missileAre you familiar with the term, classical liberalism?? s. Two Egyptian Komar missile boats fired four Styx missiles at the destroyer (the Komar carried two Styx) over-the-horizon, under the direct guidance of Soviet advisors. 42 ofraeli crew died.

o (Some accounts say the fourth missile hit the water because the destroyer sank so quickly.)

o US Senate likely to stay Democratic majority The success of the ideologically extreme right-wing Tea Party in the recent primaries has put weak Tea Party candidates in place of strong standard-flavor Republicans, making it likely the Democrats will keep a majority in the senate. As of yesterday, the Democrats are still expected to lose the House.

o We mention this simply as a By The Way. It's not going to make any difference to the crises America faces. The country has become ungovernable, with the public playing a two-faced role. Public is demanding tough governance particularly on economic issues, but if any politician of any stripe comes forward with tough plans of any sort, left-oriented (tax increases) or right-oriented (spending cuts) the public punishes that politician.

o Time to get out the fiddles.

o Department of Irony Wall Street Journal, in a story dated September 17, 2010, discusses the CIA station chief in Afghanistan, and says he is known only by his nickname, Spider.

o The WSJ says that the CIA has not made him available for an interview. Imagine that.

o http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704741904575409874267832044.html?mod=WSJ_World_LeftCarousel_1

o What's the connection between Lawrence of Arabia and Marjah, Afghanistan? You better read this article, folks. None of it is happy-making.

o http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/guerrilla-of-arabia-how-one-of-britains-most-brilliant-military-tacticians-created-the-talibans-battle-strategy-2081555.html

0230 GMT September 17, 2010

o Chinese trawler incident Asahi Shimbun of Japan reports that mass anti-Japanese demonstrations are to take place in China over the arrest of a Chinese trawler. The crew has been sent home; the captain is still in custody. Saturday will be the 79th anniversary of the Japanese invasion of Manchuria.

o The Japanese occupation of China was one of the most brutal episodes of World War II. Ten million Chinese are thought to have died. during the Nanking Massacres, the Nazis of all people were so horrified they set up a safe zone under their diplomatic protection for fleeing Chinese. When the Nazis get revolted, you can take it grim events were underway, particular since according to Nazi ideology (and Japanese) the Chinese would have been sub-humans.

o The Japanese newspaper also says Japan has apologized for the Bataan Death March. We were unable to get into the story on the Internet.

o Mao killed 45-million during Great Leap says a Hong Kong based historian who was given unprecedented access to party archives. This would be the first accurate estimate of that genocide. The death toll for World War II was 55-million. So basically in 4-5 years Mao killed more than four times as many people as the Japanese did in 14 years.

o http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/books/news/maos-great-leap-forward-killed-45-million-in-four-years-2081630.html

o Among the jolly things the government did is kill 13,000 people in three weeks in one region alone for opposing the new regime, letting 200,000 people in a group of villages starve to death because they were too weak or ill to work, and children drowned for stealing a potato.

o North Korean succession announcement delayed with no new date announced for the convention at which Dictator Kim will anoint his son as Dictator Kim - sort of "The King is dead, long live the King". No one knows the reason, but one guess is that DPRK is experiencing heavy flooding, and the Dictator thinks all the singing and dancing in the streets he has planned for his son may upset the masses.

o Latest theory on where the oil-well blowout oil went The last latest theory was that petroleum-eating bacteria chowed down on the oil, as it cannot be found. Now the new latest theory is that the oil is coating the bottom of the Gulf, and the bacteria mainly snacked on natural gas. The bacteria are apparently working on the oil, albeit slowly.

o Some say the oil found on the bottom of the Gulf may be from natural seepage and past spills, not from the Macondo blowout. Forensic tests are underway to nab the culprit.

o http://www.latimes.com/news/science/la-sci-oil-20100917,0,940272.story?track=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+latimes%2Fmostviewed+%28L.A.+Times+-+Most+Viewed+Stories%29

o The latest calculation of Pi. More news that will not make you rich. Someone has calculated the 2 x 10^15 digit of Pi. No fair, say some, because the algorithm used does not tell you what the other places of Pi that come before are. For an actual calculation of all digits, the record at present seems to be 3.7-trillion places.

o Apparently this Pi business is serious stuff. If it can be proven that Pi is a normal number, there are all sorts of implications for cryptography. Editor had to look up "normal" number. In a normal number, any set of numbers has to have an equal chance of being repeated as any other set of numbers. So 12345 has to appear as frequently as 67890. So far, no one has proved Pi is normal. (Please no jokes about football players wearing pink tutus - Pi may not be normal but Orbat readers are.

o Reader Michael on campaign spending If you have the $ I don't see anything wrong with spending it as you please be it on publicity or whatever. Re your mention about people running for office. It is pretty much open book here unlike many other places. If you are wealthy and want to spend money doesn't that help stimulate the economy?

o I DO have an issue with the govt. spending money it doesn't have on political activity such as ACORN or perhaps a hundred or a thousand other lawless schemes.

One of the prime issues we have is people in office that do not honor their oath and that is why in many cases we have such deep corruption.

o Constitution day is Friday BTW. If we follow the constitution how can we end up with nearly 50% of the population receiving some sort of govt aid or welfare? It's more than obvious govt. is spending to bribe people to vote for it. Govt IS THE Biggest business by far. How did we get here? It wasn't by strict adherence to the constitution the law. Wasn't it FDR that coined the phrase of, spend to elect??

o In large part with a few notable exceptions we now have one party with two wings, the communist wing and the national socialist wing. You may say we have a democracy and if that is true then you must realize democracy ends in tyranny and we certainly have a great deal of tyranny today.

0230 GMT September 16, 2010

o Eritrea making kissy-faces says BBC. Eritrea is the baddy-bad-boy of the Horn. It's in a state of armed peace with Ethiopia, has been engaging in border clashes with Djibouti, and the main supporter of al-Shabaab in Somalia. This last it does to hit back at Ethiopia, which supports Somalia. Now, says BBC, Eritrea has been holding talks with Djibouti, and invited a UN official responsible for Somalia for talks. The argument is: are these tactical shifts, perhaps made because Eritrea is under severe economic pressure, or is a love-fest breaking out in the region?

o Israel says Palestinian use of phosphorus mortar shells violates Geneva Convention. Israeli forces recovered nine mortar shells, two of which were the phosphorous variety.

o We're a bit confused. Is Israel saying that the use of the shells by a non-government rule is against Geneva or the simple use of the shells by anyone is illegal? If it's the latter, time for the Israelis to remember they use phosphorous galore, as does the US, as do most armies, because that's what used for illumination and targeting.

o Urk urk urk That's us choking when we learn that Britain's air tanker replacement is costing $1.17-billion per aircraft. Doubtless that includes spares and a whole bunch of other stuff, but at the same time, the tanker does not meet specs: a major cost escalation will take place for the aircraft to meet the requirement it operate in hostile environments like Afghanistan. This is a tanker for heavens sake, a militarized version of the A330 Airbus. Are the Brits decorating it with diamonds?

o And Afghanistan is a hostile environment for aircraft? How many tankers and fighters and so on have been shot down by the enemy in Afghanistan?

o The only bright side of this sad situation is that we suspect even the Americans cant come up with a $1.17-billion tanker that will likely be closer to $1.3- to $1.4-billion when delivered.

o Take a look at http://blog.seattlepi.com/aerospace/library/Comparing_Dual_and_Sole_Source_Aw.pdf It seems the operating and support costs for a KC-135 is $5-million annually. The new US and UL tankers should cost less and give more capability. The aircraft should cost around $200-million. A 30-year cost will be $350-million. Allow for periodic upgrades and major maintenance. Make the total $400-million. Costs should be the same for the Brits. How do we get from $400-million to $1.3-billion?

o OK, so the Brit order is for 14, US order will likely be fifteen times as much. Why don't the Brits then place a joint order with the US?

o Money money money, it's a rich woman's world Mayor Bloomberg of New York City spent $110-million of his own money to win a third term. Now Ms. Meg Whitman, a successful entrepreneur, has already reached $115-million of her own moolah in her campaign to become Republican governor of California.

o We understand that that the US Supreme Court has ruled that campaign spending is an extension of free speech. at the same time, we'd like our American readers to appreciate that when foreigners of any political persuasion hear of these vast sums spent on politicking, they become even more convinced that the American political system is corrupt through and through and based entirely on money-power.

o Okay, Americans can say they don't give a sheep's belch what the world thinks. Fair enough. But a nation's power is not just based on its armed forces and economy. It's also about soft power. Perceptions about fairness and honesty count in adding up soft power.

0230 GMT September 15, 2010

o Another reason to hate the French The French foreign minister has said that everyone knows Mullah Omar is in Pakistan. How dare he do that? Pakistan is our ally. It would never let Mullah Omar anywhere near its territory. The French must apologize or we Americans are going to retaliate by not eating any more pate.

o And while we're retaliating against the French, we have to retaliate against the Pakistanis. For hosting Mullah Omar? No. For repeating the slander that Omar is in Pakistan. http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/world/mullah+omar+is+in+pakistan+and+everyone+knows+it+france

o IDF is so tres amusant In response to fire from the Palestinian side, a spokesperson said, IDF "responded with tank shells and light gunfire." As in: "Garcon, for an appetizer Madame will have tank shells and light gunfire".Or: "Yo Yo Ma will now play the cello accompanied by tank shells and light gunfire".

o Mugabe's time to appear before St. Peter? The 86-year old leader denies it, but UK Independent reports that jockeying for the succession has begun.

o Orbat.com's "intelligence sources" say that a particularly ugly gentleman in a red satin suit with a limp tail, horns on his head, and carrying a large three-prong fork has been seen restlessly pacing up and down in front of St. Peter's podium after the the rumors of Mr. Mugabe arrival have multiplied.

o Japan-China trawler incident We haven't covered this because we thought it unimportant, but apparently it is quite important. Week ago a Chinese trawler operating in Japanese waters collided with two Japanese patrol boats: the Chinese those are their water. The 15-man crew was arrested. No big deal, we thought.

o Wrong. Beijing went absolutely bananas, issuing threats every day, and engaging in antics like summoning the Japanese Ambassador at midnight on Sunday without warning. One quote sets the tone: "The Chinese newspaper Huanqiu Shibao (Global Times) wrote that China, with its growing clout on the world stage, has no reason to compromise with Japan over territorial issues." In other words, might is right.

o Two points. First, as the Chinese grow stronger, the US should psychologically prepare itself for China's version of diplomacy. Oh wait - we already have. Remember when the US Navy patrol plane was dangerously buzzed by a Chinese fighter in international airspace? The fighter crashed, the patrol plane limped to a Chinese airbase where the crew were arrested and interned, and the Chinese took their time taking the plane and its equipment apart rivet and screw. Boy did the US stand up for its rights that time. Not.

o Second, we know the Japanese are polite, but if the Editor was ambassador to China, and some clown from the Chinese government insisted on seeing him at midnight, Editor would have a few words to say. Possibly that's why the Japanese have not invited Editor to be their ambassador to China. More seriously, if the Japanese won't stand up for themselves, there's no use blaming China for pushing them around. That's as true as it is of the Indians and China.

o The crew has been released, and the Chinese are crowing because they think they forced Japan to release the crew. How arrogant of the Chinese. Of course the Japanese were not intimidated. And of course has a date this Saturday. (Actually, he does have a date. With his computer.) To prove how tough they are, the Japanese have kept the captain back for further questioning.

o http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201009140340.html

o Letter from Reader Agneya This whole Quran burning controversy (or, to be more accurate, farce) has been beneficial in reminding us of two things. The first is that Muslims are guilty as any on this planet of idolatry, perhaps more so. It is just that their idols are the Quran, Kaba, and Muhammad. Only idolaters would react with such outrage to the news that a copy of the Quran was potentially about to be burned by an obscure (and mad) preacher in the middle of nowhere. Muslims erroneously assume that polytheists such as the Hindus actually pray to the beautiful religious sculptures and artwork that their artisans create; the truth is, these are mere objects to concentrate on.

o We are reminded that the current American leadership is a surprisingly weak one, for all the firepower that they possess. Again, for an unknown, rabid preacher with a tiny following, to gain so much traction as to have a Four-Star General and the President himself beg him to stop, shows that this leadership is in all probability incapable of winning the war on terror. Not that we didn't know that already, given the amount of latitude provided to the epicentre of terrorism, Pakistan.

o Letter from Reader Sharon RE your notes on burning of Qur'ans, Bibles, Torah's and Dr. Seuss books: Acceptable, depending on local burning ordinances, and provided the occurrence is on private property NOT on pews, mats, or altars in a place of worship. [If you bought 'em, they're your personal property as opposed to defacing someone elses' private property/] Recent Pastor Jones bru-ha-ha a 'teachable moment' as Americans learn the Religion of Peace isn't. Americans also tend to miss out on the ethnic/religious cleansing practiced by ROP adherents. A a real eye-opener for many; whereas, many Americans born elsewhere on the planet generally have more advanced knowledge at a much younger age. Think folks are tiring of hearing how to be tolerant toward the intolerable. Which probably means more hissy-fits. But as you say, they should 'Get over it'.

o Editor's Note Editor reiterates that we should respect each others' religions. But that respect has to be shown by everyone towards everyone's religion. You cannot say: "I will riot and kill because you don't respect my religion", and then punish or murder other persons for practicing their religion - we are specifically referring to Saudi Arabia on the punishment thing, and Afghanistan and Iraq where Christians are targeted, not to speak of several other Muslim countries.

o If someone is going to say: "Your religion is false, mine is true", and don't persecute others, that's fine. But if you say "My religion tells me I have to kill you since you belong to a false religion, even if you are Muslim", people, we get a problem. Some people think that such problems are to be decided by war and violence. We just want to remind those people: once the US gets worked up, no one can beat it at the game of war and violence.

o Right now what Americans - and Indians, for that matter - are saying something terribly simple. The words were suggested back in the day for America's motto: "Don't tread on me". This was the first motto of the US Marines, and in a way, of the US Navy. You leave me alone, I leave you alone." and by the way, to say "We hate America because of what the Israelis have done to the Palestinians", all we can say is, get a life people. Why don't you look at what your own governments have done to the Palestinians, and then talk.

0230 September 14, 2010

We did not update last night as Editor was staring at the screen pondering existential questions such as (a) why can he never get a date on Saturday (or any other day); (b) why is the US Government lying to us by saying we can win in Afghanistan when the war is already lost and everyone knows this except for some people in Washington; (c) why is it so hard to get a job just because one is one's mid-sixties - old people have to pay bills too, you know; (d) why is the Indian government piling on foolishness on foolishness with regard to Kashmir, when every appeasement makes the situation worse; (e) why does the imam of the Cordoba Initiative refuse to tell us where he plans to get $100-million for the proposed cultural center or to rule out taking money from the Saudis; (g) why does the US Education Secretary say something as idiotic as "we will have a great teacher in every classroom", when if everyone is great no one is great; (h) we already know our dryers are connected to another universe, so one of each pair of socks inevitably disappears over time, but why do we get Michael Moore and Lady Gaga in return? It doesn't seem fair.

o British forces down to 175,000 personnel, Army 100,000, Navy and Air Force about 40,000 each. Some are calling for the abolition of the RAF, with its roles given over the the Navy and Army.

o Kashmir 18 killed in protests, including one policeman, when rioting mobs protested (a) the alleged burning of some pages of a Koran by an American outside the White House over the weekend; (b) the rule of their own government; and (c) Indian federal rule. Mobs burned down a Christian school, though more Muslims than Christians attend that school. The agent provocateur was an Iranian TV channel, which kept replaying the Koran burning until Government of India shut down the channel.

o AFP says six people including anti-abortion leader Terry Randall took part in a protest outside the White Hourse. One activist read passages expressing hatred toward Christians and Jews - from an English translation - then shredded some pages and put them in a bag so as not to litter. Activist said the only treason he was not burning the Koran was that burning anything in the area around the Capitol is a felony.

o You'll want to read the AFP story yourself: http://www.ndtv.com/article/world/quran-torn-by-protestors-outside-the-white-house-on-9-11-anniversary-51392?trendingnow&cp

o Question, people: is a Koran in English a real Koran?

o Another question: next time a Muslim desecrates the Bible, should we all gather to riot, throw rocks at police, burn down government builds and so on?

o Delhi's reaction to the Kashmir riots? Double limp wrists. We feel so bad people have been killed. Come, lets have a conference with everyone including the people directing the rioters, sit around the campfire, and sing Kumbayah. US ambassador to India went all limp on us too, begging Muslims to understand that the Koran burner does not represent America. Ambassador actually - believe it or not - condemned the burning of the Christian school. Whoa! Is the sole superpower tough or what? We bet Kashmiri Muslims are shivering in their pantaloons.

o Pakistan has its own problems, but they must be laughing themselves silly.

o Laws of physics many vary at other places in our universe This is pretty radical stuff. best you read it yourself: we don't want to get into arguments about something we have only a layperson's knowledge about. The constant that isn't acting like a constant is alpha, the interaction between light and matter. Moreover, it's not just there's patches of the universe with different alphas: there seems to be a structure to the darn thing.

o http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn19429-laws-of-physics-may-change-across-the-universe.html

0230 September 12, 2010

o Michael Moore not exhaling again The gentleman wants the proposed Islamic center to be built inside the Ground Zero site. It will tear Muslims away from extremists, he says.

o We have to be gentle in our criticism of Mr. Moore. He is, after all a Great Mind, and those sort of people are mentally fragile. Instead of blasting him, we will gently ask him what proof does he have of his assertion. Does Mr. Moore honestly believe that anti-American Muslims - few of whom are extremists by the way - will change their position one little bit about where the cultural center is built? Does he have any clue that the mildly liberal views espoused by the Cordoba House are complete anathema to extremists - and to many Muslims who are not extremists? We will leave this there until we hear from Mr. Moore.

o Before we forget: Mr. Moore says the struggles of the Muslim community in New York echo those of the Jewish community in its early days in New York City.

o May we be allowed point out one thing? Anti-Semitism and Christianity have a long history. That history may make perfect sense to Christians, but it makes no sense to non-Christians simply because the Jews did not kill Christ. The Romans did, and they crucified him as the King of the Jews. Yes, the Jews whose power Christ was threatening with his reform movements had a lot to do with it. But as far as the Romans were concerned this was a factional fight between Jews, plus they had their own reasons for being anti-Jesus. For one thing, he was putting God above Caesar - who after all was God incarnate. There was also the matter of taxes. (Sorry to be Marxist about this, but generally it helps to follow the money, and money has everything to do with the historic persecution of the Jews: the King didn't want to repay his Jewish bankers, kill the Jews in the name of Christianity.)

o When the Jews came to the New World, though they were treated better than the European Jews, there still was huge discrimination against them, until after World War II.

o But, Mr. Moore, the Jews - of any faction - did not make war against the United States. Yes, factions used terror against the British in Palestine - to get the British out. They did not say Christianity was an illegitimate religion and Christians deserved to die, and then proceed to kill Christians. They did not kill people just because they carried a bible. Moreover, there are many factions of Judaism as they are of Christianity and Islam and Hinduism, but the Jews of one faction did not wholesale slaughter the other factions, They did not become aircraft hijackers and terrorists and suicide bombers.

o If Mr. Moore is Catholic and not a Jew (we have no clue but these sources says he is Catholic http://www.jewishjournal.com/thegodblog/item/michael_moore_rabble_rousing_catholic_20090923/ and http://www.discoverthenetworks.org/individualProfile.asp?indid=899 ) then his comments comparing the plight of American Jews to the post-9/11 are not just gratuitous, but plain indefensible.

o But the, we suppose Great Minds have a different set of rules than us ordinary IQ people. We suppose they are so smart they are beyond the silly old things called fact and logic.

o Al-Shabaab attack against Mogadishu fails Some times the good guys do win, if only by chance. A suicide bomber hijacked a fuel truck, and forced the driver to ram the security checkpoint at the seaport. Somali troops shot out the tires and wounded the driver and hijacker, who proved unable to detonate his explosives. Turns out the truck was empty. http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/09/somali_troops_defeat.php

o 230,000 Japanese centenarians may not exist Once in a while a story pops up that leaves one scratching one's head and saying: "whaaaaaat?". This is one of them. Worried that it could not track down a number of very senior citizens, the Japanese Government went for a full-scale investigation, and found it could not find 230,000 people 100-years and older.

o This is like the US misplacing 565,000 people 100-years old or more. That gives you an idea of how incredible is the Japanese story.

o A few of the cases have turned up fraud: Great Grandpa died years ago, but Granddaughter is still collecting his pension. In one case a son said he couldn't afford to bury his mother. So he kept her body in the house - you don't want to know the details, trust us.

o In many case family members say they just lost track of the elders, which is surpassingly odd. In some case the elders left and the family said "good riddance" and didn't report it, because in Japan, though the family is breaking down as it is everywhere, for your neighbors to learn you aren't looking after your elderly parents is one big disgrace.

o we suppose theories of Japanese longevity will have to be revised.

Letter from reader Kamal: the new generation of Indians will change little

o You wrote that things in India will change only when post-1971 generation takes power. Unfortunately, it doesnt look like that either. Rahul Gandhi, son of Rajeev and Sonia Ghandhi, is already being touted as not only the next PM of India, but the future and hope of India.

o And as of now, he doesnt seem to believe in any such change that will stop the Muslim appeasement. After all, it was only his father under whose tenure the Shah Bano case happened. What is even more unfortunate is this that the same dynastic rule will continue, with Congress fracturing Hindu fabric even further by caste based politics (reservations etc), and most people seem oblivious to that.

o Bollywood stars like Deepika Padukone who probably dont know 1% about a country as diverse and complex as India and how its run, go on to TV shows and claim that they see Rahul Gandhi as the future of India, probably cause she was charmed by Rahul and his power when he met her once or twice. The propaganda machine in his favor is massive, with such headings literally being used in media- 'Is Rahul Gandhi the savior of India?' etc. Even my friends, who are well read and everything, somehow feel that Rahul Yuvaraj will be harbinger of change! You can only imagine the massive propaganda done here in his favor.

o I dont mean to say that Deepika or anyone else should not have an opinion that does not match to mine, but what I want to point is the blatantly disgusting media habits in India where everyone gets to write and speak in media, but not those whose heart beats for India or Hinduism.

o Its strange that we get editorials in national dailies from people who hardly have done anything for the nation or hardly anything that would groom them about how the nation runs. For example, we get editorials by 'Chetan Bhagat', who is a guy who wrote two hit, but mediocre to be honest, books. He writes editorials on everything under the sun. He writes about politics, religion, commonwealth games, the education system, foreign relations, Naxal problem, communal situation and everything that one can come up with. Or for example, another Bollywood star, Bipasha Basu, not only makes a movie which glorifies Kashmir separatists (I only saw the promo, it had dialogues such as- 'What do we want? Azaadi!!!!' and 'Kashmir is a beautiful jail of India' and had scenes where a group of children is playing while hundreds of Armymen were standing pointing their guns at them) but also gives an statement that 'Kashmir wants Azaadi from both India and Pakistan' and gets to write editorials about it.

o Or for that matter, we get editorials by Mahesh Bhatt, who not only always had a strange penchant for all things Pakistani, his own son was accomplice (a friend of David Hedley when he was in India, claims he did not know the motives. Maybe.) in the 26/11 terror attacks on Mumbai.

o Or from Pritish Nandi, a film producer, who also writes about everything under the sun. And finally, how can we leave editorials by Suzanne Arundhati Roy, who, and she said this in her own words, has seceded from India and supports Naxals killing our brave Jawaans, or by Teesta Javed Stalavad, who gets to write drivel against Gujarat Government even when it is proven now that she and her NGO conjured up false evidences and witnesses against the Modi Government, making up stories that Hindus tore babies from the wombs of Muslim women.

o Of course I don't even need to begin how the media blatantly censors any disruption done by Muslims and exaggerates and tries to invalidate even the retaliation of Hindus. Or where do I begin to describe a media which does not find any fault in stone pelters of Kashmir, but rather publishes headlines such as- 'Govt pits gun toting jawaans against youth in Kashmir' (Times of India)? Or what do I say about those news channels who not only support the dilution of AFSPA (Armed Forces Special Powers Act), but ask this question from a sobbing mother of a martyr army man- 'Dont you think that if AFSPA wasn't in place and your son had to ask for warrant against those terrorist who were hiding in that house, he would be alive today?' (NDTV)

o My only hope, sir, comes from the reply the brave mother gave. She said, while weeping, that if she had another son, she would've sent him too, to fight the enemies of the nation.

o Editor's comment Back in the US of A, we too have our problems with "intellectuals", movie stars, and the media. But though they get much attention, they don't represent America. We suspect its the same back in India. The new generation in America gives Editor, at least, great hope for the future. We are equally sure that despite the stupidities that reader Kamal has to endure, as part of the Indian younger generation he will help create the change India needs

0230 September 11, 2010

o African Union troops stop al-Shabaab attack on Mogadishu Airport, killing five attackers for the loss of two AU troops and three civilians. Two attackers got within 200-meters of the terminal.

o Check www.longwarjournal.org for latest US successes in killing AQ and Taliban commanders.

o Karzai invites Mullah Omar for peace talks says Dawn of Karachi. If Mr. Karzai expects to make a deal with Mullah Omar that doesn't involve Mr. Karzai's execution sooner or later, may we suggest he has a better chance of living if he first puts three desert scorpions in his bed and takes a nap. The only reason Mullah Omar would agree to any talks is if the outcome shortens the timeline for his taking over Afghanistan.

Phyllis Chesler of Fox News on persecution of Hindus in West Bengal
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2010/09/09/phyllis-chesler-hindu-human-rights-muslim-islamic-terrorism/

o Reader Agneya sent us this article. Because it speaks so forcefully, we first thought it was written by an Indian. Before readers dismiss the article because its Fox News, we have to tell you that in the past days several readers from India have written in saying there is big trouble in West Bengal and the Indian press has been censoring itself by refusing to report on events except in the blandest, most general terms that leave readers completely ignorant. The situation is so serious that the Army has been called out in one of the hot spots.

o We now are forced to apologize to the Pakistan press because it perpetually covers up the true news to keep the government happy. Here the Indian press is doing the same thing, partly because it feels threatened after Muslims burned attacked the head office of The Statesman, one of India's oldest and most respected dailies.

o The US Government and liberal establishment keeps telling us that the US is not at war with Islam. But in west Bengal, Islam is at war with Hindus.

o Whatever we may think of Fox News, we have to congratulate Ms. Chesler on frankly mentioning the massive massacres of Hindus perpetrated by Muslim invaders. At no point are we saying India's Muslims are in any way responsible for what happened between 1200 and 1800. That's as absurd as saying today's Germans are responsible for the murder of millions of Jews or that modern Americans are responsible for slavery, or that today's British are responsible for the terrible atrocities of the Indian mutiny 1857-58 (bet you didn't hear about that part of the mutiny). The greatest ethnic cleansing after World War II took place in South Asia, when after Partition almost all Hindus were expelled from West Pakistan, and the ethnic cleansing of East Pakistan. Mrs. Gandhi used to claim 20-million people fled East Pakistan after the Pakistan Army crackdown of 1971. This was pure propaganda: she wouldn't allow any independent agency to make a count or to deliver relief. But four-million people were expelled, over 95% of them Hindus. And many millions were killed by the East Pakistanis. we say after Partition because during Partition, at least in the west, there was blame enough for all ethnic groups once the killings started, whoever started them.

o You will not learn about these figures in your history books because Mrs. Gandhi, for her own purposes - which Editor has no clue about - refused to let the world know the ethnic composition of East Pakistan refugees and the Indian press remained silent.

o This is simply part of the psychology of victimization. Indians were oppressed for so long, first by the Muslims, then by the British, and to a lesser but still significant intent by their own government, that they always blame themselves first. We would not be surprised if the same syndrome is at work in the silence of the Government and the Indian press over the developments in West Bengal.

o They are crossing the border illegally and violently displacing the indigenous population whose homes and possessions they either destroy or occupy. They are attacking the young, the elderly, and especially the girls and women, whom they kidnap, forcibly convert, or traffic into brothels. The locals are terrified of them. The police rarely come to their aid, nor do the politically correct media or government. Both are terrified by the criminals and terrorists who are riding these immigrant waves.

o I am not talking about illegal immigrants to Europe or North America. I am describing Muslims who are penetrating India’s West Bengal region. These Bangladeshi immigrants are becoming conduits for criminal activities (arms, drugs, and sexual slavery) which also fund global jihad.

o You won’t read about this in the Western mainstream media—or even in the Indian media, which has turned a blind eye to this ongoing tragedy because they are afraid to be labeled “politically incorrect” or “Islamophobic.” They are also afraid of reprisals. When Islamic zealots ransacked the office of the renowned newspaper, ‘The Statesman’ in Kolkata, in retaliation for a mere reproduction of an article condemning Islamic extremism, the Indian press remained silent. The editor and publisher of the newspaper were arrested for offending Muslim sentiments and no action was taken against the rioters.

o Fortunately, there are a few very brave Hindus who are taking a stand against the Muslim terror campaign in India. One of them is Tapan Ghosh, whom I had the privilege of meeting recently when he came to New York City to talk about anti-Hindu persecution in his homeland. In 2008, Ghosh founded “Hindu Samhati” (Hindu Solidarity Movement), which serves persecuted Hindu communities in both West Bengal and Bangladesh.

o As Ghosh emphasized in our interview, the Muslim persecution of Hindus in India is nothing new. Over a period of 800 years, millions of Hindus were slaughtered by Muslims as infidels or converted by the sword. In 1946-1947, when British India was divided into India and Pakistan, Muslims massacred many thousands of Hindus in Calcutta, the capital of West Bengal, and all along the fault line which separated India and Pakistan. Anti-Hindu riots and massacres continued during the 1950s and 1960s, but it was in 1971, when East Pakistan broke away to form the country of Bangladesh, that things worsened for Hindus in the area.

o As Ghosh explained to me, “The liberation movement for Bangladesh was characterized by an escalation of atrocities against the Hindus and pro-liberation Muslims. Hindus were specifically singled out because they were considered a hindrance to the Islamisation of East Pakistan. In March 1971, the government of Pakistan and its supporters in Bangladesh launched a violent operation, codenamed “Operation Searchlight,” to crush all pro-liberation activities. Bangladeshi government figures put the death toll at 300,000, though nearly 3 million Hindus were never accounted for and are presumed dead.” U.S. officials in both India and Washington used the word “genocide” to describe what took place.

o According to Ghosh, there has recently been a sharp increase in incidents of “Muslim rioting during Hindu festivals, destruction of Temples, desecration of Deities, and large-scale, provocative cow slaughter.” Worse: “Hundreds, thousands, of Hindu girls have been kidnapped, trafficked into sexual slavery, or taken as second or third wives for wealthy Muslim men. In recent years, Ghosh’s organization has rescued nearly 100 such girls, and one of his main missions has been to help reintegrate those survivors into their families and societies.

o Ghosh wants the Indian government to stop the illegal immigration from Bangladesh and to force the return of undocumented Muslims; to ban madrassas and polygamy; to enforce a single standard of law and education; and to arrest and prosecute known Muslim mafia kingpins and terrorists. He challenges the media to report on the anti-Hindu atrocities and to address the issue of religious apartheid.

o Ghosh is not optimistic. “The establishment of massive Saudi-funded Madrasas across rural Bengal is only contributing to the growing religious extremism among Muslims, [and] implementation of Sharia laws by [Islamic] courts is quite prevalent in many villages.” His greatest fear, he tells me, is that one day shouts of “Allahu Akbar” will ring out across the land and that Muslim zealots will demand that Hindus either convert or leave West Bengal—or die.

o Ghosh came to America not just to appeal to Indian-Americans with family and historical ties in West Bengal and Bangladesh but to appeal to all Americans for their support. As he sees it, the battle against Muslim persecution in India is just one front in a much larger battle against Islamic expansionism and terror throughout the world.

o All Americans must realize, he told me, “that the war on Islamic terrorism cannot be won without curbing religious extremism amongst the Muslim masses, be it in the suburbs of Detroit or Delhi or villages in rural Bengal. And this will require the active support and cooperation with each other, ranging from cooperation at the highest level to those who work at the grassroots level. We hope that Americans and Westerners will come out and support the Hindus in Bengal in raising resources and creating awareness about our on-the-ground realities.”

o Fair disclosure Perhaps the greatest appeasement of Saudi Arabia and Muslim countries is conducted by the Government of India. We don't mention to this to our American readers simply because it is so much a fact-of-life, and the GOI is so cowardly, that there is just no point to bringing it up. We attack American appeasement of despotic Muslim regimes because we expect better of America. Of the Indian Government we expect nothing at all. Things will change only after the post-1971 generation takes power.

0230 September 10, 2010

Major A.H. Amin on Balochistan and the NWFP

o Major A.H. Amin (Pakistan Army, Retired) occasionally writes for us. Today he sent two notes. The first note says that 80% of the Taliban fighting in Afghanistan freely operates across the Pakistan-Balochistan border of 1500-kms, where no Pakistani troops are stationed to stop them. The Pakistan Army has deployed heavily in the NWFP, but there's only 20% of the Taliban operating from NWFP.

o To say this information left us astounded is an understatement. We had absolutely no idea that most of the Taliban is NOT in the NWFP, because except for the occasional information we receive from India, Pakistan, or Afghanistan, we rely on US sources. And this is what we get from US sources: a complete set of lies, pretending that NWFP is the focal point of the Taliban. Why the US should do this, we have absolutely no idea.

o A second note from Major Amin breaks the news that the Balochistan Frontier Corps, which is to be used for the Balochistan crackdown, is actually 90% composed of Pushtoons with an increasing recruitment of Punjabis. There are few Balochis even in the Baloch Frontier Corps groups. This means that Pakistan will be pitting one ethnic group against another, which is usually called genocide.

o While we are curious to see what the US will say, if anything, a bigger point we'd like to make for our readers is that the more we look at Pakistan, the bigger a headache we get. It seems near impossible for outsiders to understand how Pakistan works. And Editor, at least, has the advantage of being South Asian, spending 20 years in India, and having many Pakistani friends.

o All in all, it seems that not just the Pakistanis are playing games with the US - something we have been saying for years as has www.longwarjournal.org, but the US is playing games with the American public.

o We are not happy campers. We accept the US Government, like any other, has to operate with a considerable degree of secrecy in matters of national security during wartime. But why has Washington not plainly told us where the threat to Afghanistan is coming from? Aside from the occasional grumble that the Taliban leadership has made itself comfortable in Quetta, we are told little else about the Taliban in Balochistan.

o Now, of course you can say "But aren't there hundreds of US/Western media people in Pakistan, shouldn't they be telling us what is actually going on?"

o Well, here's the problem. Major Amin tells us on August 5, 2010, Lyse Doucet of the BBC interviewed the Inspector General of the Frontier Corps. we cannot say how many days, weeks, or months the intrepid Ms. Doucet has spent in Pakistan, but we're willing to wager its a lot. Yet apparently when the IG of the Frontier Corps responded to her aggressive questioning about what Pakistan was doing about North Waziristan, he asked Ms. Doucet how many troops did the US/NATO have on the Afghanistan side of North Waziristan border. She had no clue.

o Okay, so we all know there are no NATO troops worth mentioning outside the Khost Air Base, because US/NATO have not bothered to interdict the border themselves, preferring to issue imperial firmans (edicts in Urdu) to their subjects in Pakistan, which Pakistan ignores. In Orbat.com we've often said unless NATO etc. ante up the troops to close the border - and several hundred thousand will be required - the Afghan war cannot be won.

o But isn't it Ms. Doucet's job to know minor stuff like where US/NATO troops are stationed and where not? Isn't she a professional journalist who is paid to know this stuff?

o So what what we're saying is: don't wait on the media to inform us what's going on in Pakistan and the Afghan war. They have less of a clue than you or me.

Selig Harrison on Chinese Troops in Pakistan

o Pakistan denies: Letter from Pakistan press counselor in New York Selig S. Harrison’s article “China’s discreet hold on Pakistan’s Northern Borderlands” (Views, Aug. 27) has no basis in fact.

o The facts are: The Karakoram Highway, which connects China’s Xinjiang region with Pakistan’s Gilgit-Baltistan region, was constructed by Chinese and Pakistani engineers over a long period of time and completed in 1986. This is a historical fact. Parts of the highway, the highest paved international road, were destroyed, as was most of Pakistan’s infrastructure, by the recent deadly floods. Landslides at Attabad in the Hunza Valley cut off all links to Gilgit-Baltistan, making it difficult for the government to ensure timely provision of the people’s needs.

o Pakistan therefore sought urgent help from friendly countries, including China, whose engineers have the necessary experience, to repair the damage on this critically important highway. But Mr. Harrison chose to describe Chinese engineers as army troops. Why he has tried to mislead your readers, is something he must explain.

o Mr. Harrison replies Western and regional intelligence sources say that there has been an influx of construction, engineering and communication units of the People’s Liberation Army into Gilgit-Baltistan, under the command of the Xinjiang military district, totaling at least 7,000 military personnel. This is confirmed by local political groups opposed to both Pakistani military rule and to the Chinese influx whose credibility is verified by Pakistani journalists, such as the Balawaristan National Front, the Gilgit-Baltistan Democratic Alliance, the All-Party National Alliance and the Gilgit-Baltistan Thinkers Forum.

o In addition, several thousand P.L.A. troops are said to be stationed in the Khunjerab Pass on the Xinjiang border to protect Karakoram Highway construction crews, with ready access to Gilgit-Baltistan.

o True, the Chinese in Gilgit-Baltistan are not combat soldiers, and their work on flood relief and economic development has positive benefits. But the impact of such a large foreign presence in a thinly populated, undeveloped region has been profound. With large amounts of money to dispense for subcontracts and support services, P.L.A. officers have become powerful, striking alliances with Pakistan-sponsored local functionaries, Pakistani bureaucrats and Pakistani businessmen who are profiting from more than 200 mining and other Chinese-run projects.

o To local political activists, this adds up to a creeping process of de facto Chinese control over a region where Islamabad claims nominal authority but lacks the infrastructure to exercise it.

o Editor's comment Thanks to reader Vikhr Akula for the URL: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/09/opinion/09iht-edletters.html?_r=1 What Editor find most strange is that Pakistan did not say a word about this Chinese relief assistance. US relief assistance was widely reported in the Pakistan media, so why not the Chinese? Next, the troops Mr. Harrison refers to were in the Northern Areas before the floods.

o Mr. Akula has his own question. Why have the Indian and US Governments commented publically on this development? Indians are reaching over backward not to provoke China. Pakistan is US's ally, so it avoids bringing attention to what Pakistan is doing unless its to say something positive.

0230 September 9, 2010

o India acts decisively in Kashmir - not Editor almost passed out with shock when he learned from the Hindu that the Government had arrested the head of one of the three separatist parties in Kashmir.

o Good thing we didn't pass out, or else we might not have read the second line. The gentleman will be held till the Eid festival, i.e., for a couple of days.

o Pathetic.

o Pakistan acts decisively in Balochistan It had banned five anti-government organizations in the province, though we don't understand this because the two most important ones were already banned.

o And less anyone doubts the Pakistanis are serious, they have complained to the US and Afghanistan that the latter is fomenting unrest in Balochistan.

o Last we heard, the Taliban was using Balochistan to forment - er - "unrest" in Afghanistan.

o Typical agitprop tactics: you've got underway a huge insurgency in Afghanistan, so you blame the victim.

o Doubly pathetic.

o Koran Burning An American cleric wants the church we discussed yesterday not to stage its threatened Koran burning. How would we Americans feel, asks the cleric, if Muslims burned a bible?

o See, Muslims in many countries don't burn bibles. They merely imprison or kill you for having a bible.

o Editor knows how the US Government would feel if American Muslims burned a bible. The Government would apologize for causing Muslims hurt feelings by allowing the bible to exist in the first place.

o Triply pathetic.

o Mexico crime "like an insurgency" says the US Secretary of State. What deep analysis! What amazing perception! Only an Ivy League graduate could have said said something so terrifying banal and meaningless - and get paid to make these statements!

o Wake up, Ma'am. The situation is rapidly transitioning to an all-out war. Meanwhile US is hold up some piddling amount of counter-narcotics aid because it wants improvements in the human rights situation there. Just like we foremost above all uphold human rights in our war zones. The Mexicans need to stop being polite and tell the US Government to retire to some dark, damp place and sit there holding its breath till it passes out.

o Pathetic times four.

o By the way, we learn that two Mexican officials investigating the murder of 72 illegal migrants on their way to the US have turned up dead. And just to make sure the Mexican criminals responsible for murdering the migrants and the investigators, turns out that they've also killed at least three of their own killers.

o Fidel criticizes Iran for its anti-Semitism Not that's something you don't see every day, a 3rd world leader attacking anti-Semitism. In a five hour interview with a US journalist Fidel returned to this theme several times.

o Gotta admire the old boy. He has some principles.

o Can we hear from Hugo next, since he upholds Fidel as one of his revered elders?

o http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-11226158

0230 September 8, 2010

Pakistan: The news is all bad

o The floods are devastating Pakistan's social fabric to a degree it may take years to fully appreciate. Very little help is forthcoming despite the huge numbers of people affected. Numbers wise, this may be the worst disaster since the 1970 East Bengal cyclone. Just because the death toll so far is minimal, we must not think this is not a great disaster. People have lost their homes, their possessions, their animals, and their crops. How are they to survive the coming months?

o Editor has repeatedly wondered why so little help is being sent to Pakistan. A Pakistani journalist writing in the Washington Post gave us the answer: the Pakistan Government has wracked up such an unparalleled record for corruption and lack of transparency, people and governments are just not willing to give money. Of course, Pakistan's role in the terror war has also turned off many people - we made this point some days ago. It is unfortunate that the people of Pakistan are twice victimized: first by their government and then by foreigners who distrust the Pakistan government. This, however, is the cruel reality of life.

o The Taliban are hitting back at the Government in full force www.longwarjournal.org, which keeps track of Taliban attacks, says between September 1-7 alone, five attacks have killed 130 people.

o The Pakistan Army claims it has sorted out Orakzai with 60 KIA on its side and 600 insurgents on the other. Anyone familiar with CI knows ratios of 1:10 are impossible unless you are using massive firepower. And massive firepower means you are killing civilians, perhaps even more civilians than insurgents. This is not going help anyone. Further, we know what happened when Pakistan said it had pacified Swat. All that happened is the Government and the Taliban came to a new agreement to leave each other alone. In south Waziristan, the Government did not even make a pretence of serious fighting.

o Pakistan is threatening a violent crackdown in Balochistan No sooner did Mandeep Bajwa warn us of the deteriorating situation in Balochistan, then yesterday the Pakistan Interior Minister says the Government is going to launch a crackdown in the province along the lines of the Swat and Malakand operations.

o How many more areas is the Pakistan Army supposed to tackle? We are not saying we know the solution: we don't. What we are saying is that if you're already engaged in ops in the NWFP, and there's trouble in the Northern Areas, and there's more trouble in Karachi, its not going to help if the Pakistan Army gies into Balochistan.

o We agree the CI problem is different in Balochistan. There are very few Baloch in the Pakistan Army, and it is not like fighting its own kin in the NWFP. We expect the Pakistan Army will be ruthless in ways it has not been in NWFP. At the same time, we repeat: is this the time to expand the internal wars?

o But most serious of all is an editorial in Dawn of Karachi. It says the Government has been spending twice as much money as it takes in revenue, and that the Government is so close to financial collapse that there's a real danger after a few months Government salaries.

o Who says this? No anti-government partisan. The Finance Minister of Pakistan says it. If you cant pay Government servants, it means the economy has collapsed.

o We leave readers to work out the ramifications of this news.

o http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/editorial/economy-on-the-verge-of-collapse-790

o Kashmir separatist parties We learn from the Hindu that there are three parties: Sayeed Gilani's group, Umar Farooq's group, and the JK Liberation Front. Right now the heads of the groups are running around Srinager discussing where prayers for the Muslim festival of Eid are to be held.

o Terrible, terrible Indian repression, no, when the leaders of secessionist parties are free to associate and plot their next insurgent moves? No wonder Kashmir Muslims don't take the Government of India seriously. The Government of India doesn't take itself seriously.

o The case of the Church planning to burn a Koran just got twice as ugly as it was yesterday - and four times as ugly as the day before. The day before General David Petreaus warned that the Church was risking the lives of American troops by planning to proceed with the Koran burning. That was bad enough. But yesterday the White House, i.e., the US president, made the same charge.

o Lets try and get some logic into this demented situation.

o First, do we conclude that if the Koran is not burned the lives of US troops will not be endangered? They're endangered because they are fighting an enemy who is trying its best to kill them well before anyone said anything about burning a Koran.

o Second, what the good general and the good president are trying to do is to appease the enemy - which is not going to be appeased burnt Korans or not.

o Third, said good general and said good president have absolutely nothing to say when said enemy - and our so called Muslim allies - persecute and kill Christians. Anyone checked on the fate of Christians in Pakistan? In Iran? In Iraq? In Saudi Arabia? In Afghanistan? This is disgusting and obscene. It shows that the US Government has no sense whatsoever about what is right and what is wrong - we are always in the wrong, the people trying to kill us are always right, because heaven forefend, we don't want to be seen as intolerant!

o By the way, has the good general and good president said anything at all about the seven doctors and their employees killed by the Taliban for allegedly carrying bibles? These people have been in Afghanistan for years, helping the afghan people, for gosh sakes. They deserve death because they were Christians? That shows we are tolerant? No. It shows we are morally degenerate and mentally sick.

o Last, have the good general and good President forgotten this is a free country? Yes, they have a right to their opinion. But the Church, which we are told has just 50 members, has a right to its opinion. The church is making a point - in a stupid way according to us, but a valid point nonetheless. And by bringing out the 8" guns to blast this pathetic little church of no consequence at point-blank-range, the government is doing exactly the opposite of what it should, which is to say nothing and ignore these people. You can be sure tens of millions of more people are going to be watching this situation now.

o By the way, we are no admirers of the modern ACLU. But we're willing to wager that if the Government moves against the church, the ACLU will be in court against the government. And we'd support the ACLU this time.

0230 September 7, 2010

o Pakistan rapidly destabilizing says our South Asia correspondent Mandeep Singh. He says aside from the Taliban-Pakistan-Afghanistan-US situation, which by itself is a huge destabilizer, the Sunni Taliban has been killing Shias, there is Sunni-Shia trouble in Pakistan's Northern territories, plus Shia-Government trouble, the Baloch have started a campaign to kill non-Baloch in their province, and Karachi, Pakistan's largest and most important city, is caught in a multi-actor sectarian conflict. You have the Taliban against everyone, the mojahirs (immigrants from India) against the Punjabis who dominate the governance of the Sindhis, the Pakistan Government against all actors as it seeks to damp down violence. There's also the Taliban against the Government in Punjab. Last, there is the short-term/long-term destabilization caused by the floods, where its become the poor against the Government and the big landlords, because the Government worked to save the landowners at the expense of the poor.

o We asked Mandeep what the outcome of all this is. He says the civilian government is overwhelmed and will have to call the army to take over. In fact, the mojahirs of Karachi have already for an army takeover though their leader backtracked a bit when all other parties attacked him.

o The army will not move till the constituted civilian government asks for a take-over.

o Meantime, back in India the Kashmir situation is deteriorating. The Army is picking off Pakistani infiltrators left and right, because - as we have said many times - it has finally gotten its act together and is completely prepared. The infiltrators are not a problem now.

o But the civil police have not been able to switch to non-lethal means to control protestors. Another four demonstrators were shot when they stoned a police chief's convoy.

o Well, we feel bad for the people of Kashmir, but having made their bed they must now lie in it. India pulled out the Army, and most of the Border security Force, leaving local and Central Reserve police to handle law-and-order. It held free elections, with 60% of the population voting despite a boycott by separatist groups. If you don't consider sixty percent that fair, ask yourself what percentage of the US electorate votes. India keeps pumping money into Kashmir, 10 times per capita more than the rest of India gets.

o If the Kashmiris cannot still pull together, and if they still want to dispute the division of spoils despite the clear electoral verdict, then we're very sorry to say this, but the Army is going to be back.

o The Government has repeatedly offered talks, the separatists have countered with impossible demands, such as the involvement of the international community in negotiations. This is going to happen over India's dead body.

o if the Kashmiris think they're being repressed right now, we can assure everyone its going be ten times worse if the Army is called back. Not least because the Army never wanted to be involved in IS in Kashmir to begin with, and was delighted when it was sent back to their bases. It is going to be in a very, very bad mood if they have to return. And if in the next few years India gets a right-of-center government, then the privileges the Kashmiris have since 1947 that are not given to other Indians are going to go into the trash bin.

o The last time the army was involved in Internal Security in Kashmir, the number of Army and para-military troops deployed for pure IS was between 200-225,000. It was NOT 700,000 as some alleged for the very simple reason that if violence in Kashmir were to end tomorrow, half-a-million army and border troops will remain because they are for external defense against Pakistan and China.

o India is undertaking a major build up of its paramilitary troops as well a sizeable Army buildup. Next time around you'll see 350,000 troops and police deployed for IS, a situation which is hardly going to cause the Kashmiris to rejoice and celebrate.

o The Kashmirs have to learn - like all Indians are learning - that they live in a democracy and they get their chance to change their national and state government on a regular basis. If the losers don't like the results, they cannot resort to violence to get what they failed to get in a peaceful manner.

o We have heard lots of criticism about unfree elections in Kashmir. Well, this last one was cleared by foreign observers as free. And we wonder how free any democratic election can be when you have hordes of terrorists and separatists running violently around.

o Because the Indian Prime Minister is by temperament a kind and peaceful academic and goes on and on offering talks instead of the stick, the Sunni Kashmiris have gotten the idea they can push the Government of India around. To begin with, the claim of the Sunni Kashmiris to all Kashmir is illegitimate: there are Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists and Shias with no desire to live in a Sunni run Kashmir. If anyone doubts this, please examine the experience of non-Sunnis in Pakistan, to say nothing of the West Pakistan treatment of the Bengalis, and Hindu Bengalis by the Muslim majority, as well as what's happening in every part of Pakistan today.

o The hashish inspired dreams of Sunni Kashmiris for independence have no basis in reality. If India left tomorrow, by 12 noon, by 12 midnight "independent" Kashmir will have been seized by Pakistan. so why should India give up its own territory just to see it taken over by Pakistan?

o And if the separatist Kashmiris really think they west is going to a FRY to keep them independent, then we're very sorry, but they are in a hopeless psychotic state. The first difference between between FRY and "independent" Kashmir is that FRY was white Europeans. The second difference between FRY and "independent" Kashmir is that FRY was a tiny country you could throw into any corner of India and the locals will not even notice. India is a country of 1.2-billion people. Third difference is - anyone notice that the west is just a teensy-weensy bit fatigued of taking on fights it cannot win? The west is really going to help keep separatist Kashmir independent so that another country falls to the Islamic fundamentalists?

o Kashmiri separatists need to stop doing the Timothy Leary thing and smell the coffee or whatever. We all want our own country. But we cant have it so we get over it.

o India's role in creating separatism No discussion of Kashmir can be fair unless we look back to India's boost to separatism. When India - um - "helped" Bangladesh become independent in 1971, it was the first time since World War 2 that a country was forcibly partitioned. We cannot count Israel's take over of Palestine because that was conquest. We're talking about A coming in and breaking up B into B and C, and then going home. The international community was so horrified it voted 104 to something (if we recall right), asking India to cease hostilities in Bangladesh and to please leave.

o Pakistan's invasion of Kashmir using irregulars in 1947-48, 1965, and 1999 were not in the same category because the intent was annex part of India, not to break up India and go home.

o The matter of the UN Plebiscite The Government of India - and its people - can be quite limp-wristed in their defense of India and Kashmir. We still see references to "India refused to abide by the UN resolution for a free referendum in Kashmir."

o Fact 1: Yes, India did refuse.

o Fact 2: India refused because Pakistan did not withdraw its troops from the "disputed" territory. The Indian Prime Minister agreed to a referendum provided Pakistan withdrew. This was an essential component of the ceasefire agreement and subsequently.

o Fact 3: Pakistan says it did withdraw its troops; the ones left behind were members of the Azad (Free) Jammu and Kashmir Militia over which it had no control. Sure they were, just like the infiltrators of 1965 were just spontaneously awakened freedom fighters, and just like the elite Northern Light Infantry magically became "mujahids" about whom Pakistan had no knowledge...say, dijda see that line of pink elephants that just flew formation over the US Capitol? It's true, officer, it's really true, why are you loading your tranquilizer gun...if you didn't see the pink flying elephants you need to get your eyes examined...

o Who started this whole darn thing? We believe that had Pakistan not twice tried the freedom fighter thing in Kashmir, India would not have gotten the idea of "helping" Pakistan Bangalis to free themselves. You may disagree, if you do, we'd be happy to publish your views.

0230 September 6, 2010

We missed the September 6, 2010 update due to homework due by midnight.

0230 GMT September 5, 2010

o In Helmand Province, Afghanistan Coalition has deployed 30,000 troops. Progress is slow, and that's fine too: Rome was not built in a day and so on and so forth.

o But once you realize Afghanistan has 34 provinces, you start to see the problem. No one says each province must have 30,000 troops. But if you don't want to play whack-a-mole with the Taliban, you need to have an effective presence in each province, and of course, you also need a major presence on the Pakistan border. we leave it to you to decide how many troops are required: 300,000? 500,000? 750,000?

o But however you slice and dice it, it's hard to see anything less than 300,000 will do the job. We're talking foreign troops here, not total including Afghan Army and police, because the latter are, basically, useless.

o Are we going to get 300,000 troops in Afghanistan?

o We can agree we are not.

o That being the case, all the talk about victory is achievable and Mr. Obama is giving aid and comfort to the Taliban by setting a withdrawal date is pointless. Victory is not achievable, and it doesn't matter if Mr. Obama says US will withdraw in 2111 instead of 2011.

o What you can blame Mr. Obama for is that knowing victory was NOT achievable, he should have had the courage to withdraw in 2009 instead of surging and setting 2011. What Mr. Obama did was to buy political cover at the sacrifice of Coalition lives and money. This is morally repugnant. Editor, at least, expected better from him.

o Bush versus Obama: Speech time. The other day we listening to an old Bush speech. Mercifully concise and to the point. He said in ten sentences what he needed to, and was done. Mr. Obama now: let's just say you could grow old and die in your chair in front of your TV before he's done.

o Lots of people attack Mr. Bush for being stupid because he has a processing disability which is the reason for many Bushisms. How does Editor know this? Because Editor also suffers from a processing disability. It is well known that anyone over the age of 14 has extreme trouble understanding what he saying when he speaks. People under 14 have no problem whatsoever, by the way. Also, a lot of things Mr. Bush said made perfect sense if you were a preppie. How does Editor know this? Because he used to be a preppie.

o A man who can say in 200 words what others require 2000 to make their first point is not stupid. He is smart and a clear thinker.

o The former British prime Minister, Mr. Tony Blair, who is generally acknowledged as a brainy type, has said in his recently released biography that the greatest mistake people made re. the US president was thinking Mr. Bush was stupid. We haven't read the book, so we don't know if he has made this point: Mr. Bush used to play dumb as an act. If you saw through his act, he knew you were smart. If you didn't see through his act, he knew you were not. How does the Editor know this? Well, it all goes back to the preppie thing, particularly British preppies. It's not easy to explain.

o As for Mr. Bush's jokes at his own expense. They didn't show he was insecure. To the contrary, they showed he was very secure. Again, it's a preppy thing. One of the greatest problems Editor had communicating with Mrs. R IV is that she could never see that putting oneself down for laughs is (a) a sign of a confident person; and (b) a heck of a lot kinder than putting other people down for laughs - though both are preppie habits.

o The nickname thing: Editor was continually amazed that Americans did not understand this Bushism. Preppies give nicknames to everyone. If you like someone, you give them a nickname. If you don't like them, you also give them a nickname. The nickname is a code for what you really think of the person.

o The way you could tell when Mr. Bush was pulling a fast one was to check which smile he was using. If it was a sneaky smile - you could also term it ironical - you knew he was making fun of you. Because if you a preppie, you know the code.

o So if you have the chance, go back and look at Mr. Bush's expression when he says "you're doing a heck of a job, Brownie."

o Now if you're going to say: Why do I have to understand what my President says. Why can't he just talk plainly? We're going to say "Good question". As an example of a plain speaker, you have Mr. William Jefferson Clinton. Very, very clear and plain speaker. Just that his words are devoid of content. Ditto Mr. Obama.

o So it comes down to a matter of preference. Some people like the Clinton/Obama style - "talk, talk, you worry me to death" (if you're a certain age you'll know that line). Some people are just as pleased to hear the Bush style. It doesn't make one president stupid and the other a braniac.

o Sexual assault case against Wikileaks founder reinstated We first need to be clear that the Wikileaks founder's morals have nothing to do with the rights or wrong of his publishing classified US documents. We would not have mentioned the assault case in the first place had he not tried to be too clever by insinuating the Pentagon was behind the case.

o Now further details are available, and the case has been reinstated. We leave it to readers to judge if the Pentagon could have set up the gentleman.

o Two women have complained that the gentleman had inadequate protection and when they asked him to stop he didn't. Both women agree that the encounters started out as consensual but did not end that way.

o Our advice to the gentleman is: the bizarre details of your sex life are your business, not Orbat's. So let's leave the Pentagon out of it.

o Pentagon continues to consider bringing a case against the gentleman. Our advice to the Pentagon is to modify a saying by Yoda: "Do, or do not: there is no consider."

o Random fact The Luftwaffe in world War 2 dropped 74,000-tons of bombs on Britain. The allied Combined Bomber Offensive dropped 2-million tons on Germany. US dropped 6.7-million tons of air ordnance during second Indochina.

o In the ETO, USAAF/RAF dropped 2.7-million tons of bombs. This required 1.2-million bomber sorties and 2.6-million fighter sorties. 22,000 bombers and 18,000 fighters were lost.

o The number of aircraft used in Second Indochina was far less than in the ETO in World War II, but the bombing in second Indochina lasted 8 years versus five in the ETO, and payloads were much larger. A B-52, for example, dropped 30-tons at a time. The F-105 could drop 6-tons, the F-4 6+-tons and the F-111 could drop 10-tons (theoretical payloads were higher).

0230 GMT September 4, 2010

o Department of Irony www.Longhwarjournal.org reports that the Taliban have asked for a a human rights inquiry into the killing of Taliban leaders after capture by the Pakistan Army.

o Meanwhile, after killing 32 Shias at a mosque earlier in the week, the latest Taliban contribution to human rights is the killing of 73 Shias in Quetta yesterday.

o Human Rights groups express concern over US UAV assassinations in areas far from war zones, including the killing of US citizens. The problem here is to define "war zones". Yemen and Somalia are indeed far from the war zones of Afghanistan and Iraq. Nonetheless, because of the diffuse and global nature of terror groups, the US is entirely justified in acting as if both Yemen and Somalia are very much war zones.

o We appreciate Americans are a legalistic society, with one lawyer per 300 people. But there is no harm if the US Government issues a formal statement clarifying which countries are in war zones, as also getting a formal declaration of war against terror passed by the US Congress. Nor is there harm in getting US courts to declare which of America's enemies are lawful combatant groups entitled to Geneva protections, and which are not. Moral and legal clarity are always better than the alternative.

o China says PLA troops in Kashmir only for flood relief says the Indian daily The Hindu. As a lie, this is not a particularly good one because at no time did Pakistan say China had sent troops for flood relief. Moreover, the troops have been present from much before the floods.

o We would expect China to say the troops are present to assist Pakistan in the project to widen the Karakorum Highway. Of course, Pakistan has its own quasi-military construction arm, the Northern Works Organization, and its unclear why Pakistan would need more than a few specialists from China.

o We reiterate that the presence of PLA forces in Pakistan Kashmir is Pakistan's business. Not because Editor recognizes Pakistan's claim to Kashmir, but given that India and Pakistan exist in a condition of hair-trigger armed peace, Pakistan has to do what it needs for its defense.

o The issue as far as Editor is concerned, is what is India going to do about this extreme provocation, made worse by a blatant falsehood justifying the presence of the PLA?

o We reckon India will do nothing. China has never been particularly concerned about Indian military power deployed against China in Tibet. The exception was 1986-87, when it looked like India was going to go to war against China. The reason is that the Chinese assess India's threat not on military capabilities, but on Indian political capabilities.

o And the Chinese are quite aware that politically, the Indians Are Grade Triple A wimps. To such an extent China has no hesitation in saying an easily disproved lie. It's almost as if they just don't bother enough about to India to even make up a plausible lie.

o http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article611586.ece

o Chinese warships visit South Pacific Xinhua of China says that the PLAN's training vessel "Zheng He" and frigate "Mian Yang" are on a 5-nation visit to five SouthPac countries: Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, Tonga, New Zealand and Australia. Nothing to be worried about, the Chinese are America's Best Friends Forever, aren't they?

o Meanwhile, a Chinese hospital ship is visiting Gulf ports.

o Zheng He was China's greatest seafarer, making seven very large expeditions in the early 15th Century to Southeast, South and West Asia, and to the Horn of Africa. While trade was undoubtedly his Emperor's main objective, Zheng He's fleet consisted of 25,000 soldiers and sailors. One supposes this was to remind countries reluctant to trade that the Chinese were their Best Friends Forever

0230 GMT September 3, 2010

o The US as a pathetic wimp Americans like to think of their country as powerful, but in one case, at least, the US shows it has become a pathetic wimp. The case concerns Dr. AQ Khan, father of Pakistan N-weapons program and master proliferator.

o Just as background, the good professor sold N-weapons technology to Libya, Iran, Saudi Arabia and North Korea. He also sent two of his top men to discuss sale of two N-warheads to our equally esteemed friend, Osama Bin Laden. The good professor even arranged for China to "loan" Pakistan N-weapon grade materials for its 1998 tests.

o US tried to get access to Dr. AQ Khan, but the Pakistanis told the Americans to go back to where they belonged. They did put him under a farcical house arrest; but this house arrest was like putting a suspect in the Waldorf Astoria and letting visit anyone he wants to see.

o Now he has been released even from this "house arrest."

o Editor needs to be clear for our readers. As a Pakistani, Dr AQ Khan has every right to develop N-weapons for his country. His nuclear dealings were conducted with the full knowledge and assistance of his government, and frankly, that is the Government of Pakistan's business. We are not making this into a moral issue of any sort.

o What we are saying is that Dr, Khan and the Government of Pakistan powerfully acted against American interests. So just as the Pakistanis have the right to pursue their interests, US has the right to pursue its interests.

o Except the US cannot even get to talk to Dr. Khan, leave alone get him in its custody.

o This from the world's alleged sole superpower.

o If the US looks at the man in the mirror, it will not see Uncle Sam or the American Eagle. It will see Mr. Alfred E. Neuman, of Mad magazine. Mr. Neuman's motto? "Wot, me worry?"

o Follow-up on Indian food grains story The Hindu daily reports that the Government will release an additional 2.5-million tons of food grains to Below Poverty Line families, consequent on Supreme Court orders that it is better to give away the grain then let it rot. The Government sells subsidized food grains to 65-million BPL families, up to a maximum of 35-kg/month. It is also thinking of raising the number of eligible families to between 77- and 82-million.

o The normal foodgrain buffer maintained by the Government is 27-million tons, but at present the buffer has 55-million tons.

o The Government says food grain distribution costs $14-billion/year. First, India can certainly afford that sum to help feed its below poverty line people. Second, it does NOT cost the government $14-billion/year. It costs far less because the grain if not distributed will spoil. Sure it has to be purchased in the first place. But when millions of tons go to waste each year, you cannot say distribution to the poor is costing money.

o We congratulate the Government on its decision, even though its hand was forced by the Supreme Court. Further, we urge the Government to spend less time thinking and more time doing. Indians are very smart. if their thoughts could be spun into material wealth, India would be the richest country in the world. In China, however, they haven't gotten where they have by thinking.

o BTW, we don't know to what extent the poor can afford 35-kg/month of grains even if subsidized. Is this enough to see a family of 5-6 through the month? Does the food grain actually reach those for whom it is designated?

o Another episode in the Annals of the Absurd if anyone thinks we are making up the story below, please visit Washington Post September 2, 2010, Metro section, Pages B1 and B6.

o There is a local elected official in Washington called Michael Brown. He holds one if the two "at large" seats on the Washington DC Council. He does not have to run for his seat this year because apparently at least the at-large members are elected in staggered years.

o There is a second Michael Brown, who wants the second "at large" seat. Opposing him is a gentleman we will call Mr. A, to protect the moronic.

o Mr. A. is attacking Michael Brown #2 for running his campaign under the name "Michael Brown". Mr. A. says that by running as "Michael Brown", Mr. Brown #2 is using the popularity of Mr. Brown #1 into deceiving voters into believing that he is actually Mr. Brown #1.

o Now let's look at the facts. Mr. Brown #1 is not running for election this year. Washington DC is a small place, perhaps 600,000 people. Presumably Washingtoons know that Mr. Brown #1 is not running because it's not time for him to run for reelection. Mr. Brown #1 is black and 45, and trim of build. Mr. Brown #2 is white and 57, and is described as "portly". Mr. Brown #2 is asking people, in bewildered fashion, what is he supposed to do? Michael Brown is his name, and he had it first.

o If Mr. A is worried that the good people of Washington cannot tell Mr. Brown #1 from Mr. Brown #2, and that is unfair Michael Brown should run under the name Michael Brown, possibly the US Congress is right in not giving Washingtoons representation in the US Congress. (The District of Columbia is a federal district, not a state. Only states can send people to Congress.) After all, even in a democracy you want voters who can tell a 45-year black man not running for election from a 57-year white man who is running for election. Even if they have the same name.

o Letter from Jupiter: Re your September 1 statement that "And of course, the 90% of Muslims who probably agree that both stoning to death and the name calling are wrong, will not utter a word, further convincing non-Muslims that Islam as a religion is unacceptable."

o Actually it is incorrect to say 90% of Muslims agree stoning is wrong.

o More than 80% of Pakistanis ( > 95% are Muslim) support stoning. Source:http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1683/pakistan-opinion-less-concern-extremists-america-image-poor-india-threat-support-harsh-laws

o Half of Indonesia support stoning (though its illegal). Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoning#Support_for_the_practice_of_stoning

o Even if one assumes that none in other Muslim countries support stoning, it is still incorrect to say that 90% of Muslims oppose stoning.

o Considering the historical association of stoning with mid-east, Saudi, Iran and neighboring Muslims countries probably support stoning at least as much as Indonesia or Pakistan.

o Probably more than 2/3 of Muslims support stoning.

o Editor's note We haven't seen the latest population figures but Indonesia and Pakistan hold about a third of the world's 1-billion Muslims.

0230 GMT September 2, 2010

o After UAVs, UUVs Unmanned Underwater Vehicles are the next big thing in military robotics, with widespread research being conducted around the world. Aviation week and space Technology has a summary report of several programs. One we found of interest was the British Archerfish, a mine killer.

o "BAE Systems’ Archerfish, (is) a single-shot minekiller with a directed-energy warhead, scanning sonar and twin propulsors that let it hover beside a target for remote video identification. Archerfish can be launched from surface ships, UUVs or dropped from helicopters."

o http://aviationnow.com/aw/generic/story.jsp?id=news/dti/2010/09/01/DT_09_01_2010_p26-248224.xml&headline=UUV%20Development%20Accelerates&channel=defense

o China can now rendezvous two satellites says Wired Magazine. The US is known to have done the same thing in 2005, but apparently the capability is an advanced one.

o We congratulate the Chinese on their new capability, and offer our sincere thanks at creating a new threat the US will have to respond to. Since the end of the Cold War the US has gone to sleep on many types of advanced weapons as the threat no longer existed. we are appreciative the Chinese are getting into a serious competition with the US on space weapons. As is understandable, the US is at its technology best when there is competition.

o http://www.wired.com/dangerroom You have to scroll past a few other articles, each of interest. The story is dated August 31, 2010.

o Royal and French Navies to share aircraft carriers? Defense News says the move is under consideration. From the Royal Navy's view, it can afford to cancel one of the two 60,000-ton carriers it plans to construction, saving $8-billion (though presumably the costs for a one-off will be higher than half of a two-carrier deal). The French get to have the use of a carrier for most of the year. Currently, they have only one CVN, the Charles de Gaulle.

o Strictly speaking, you have to have three to keep one on station at all times. When the US has a 15-carrier force, it kept three with the 7th Fleet and two with the 6th Fleet. There are many tactical reasons why you want at least two carriers working together, not least being you want to keep four elements of two fighters up at a time in a potentially hostile air environment, and also you have a backup deck should one deck be fouled due to enemy action or accidents. These imperatives get reduced if you have AEW coverage and air support from land.

o Also, with three carriers in your fleet, with some warning time you can put two to sea.

o http://defensenews.com/story.php?i=4761937&c=SEA&s=TOP

o Latest on invisibility cloaks http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20727755.800-real-invisibility-threads-would-be-fit-for-an-emperor.html

o Why we need to believe climate change is solely man-made The Marxist philosopher of science Slavoj Zizek says the reason may be that we are unable to accept we are at nature's mercy. Read about this and his other insights at http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20727751.100-slavoj-zizek-wake-up-and-smell-the-apocalypse.html

o Full disclosure Till Editor read this article, he had no clue there was any such thing as a Marxist philosopher of science. But honestly, this gentleman has a lot to say, and New Scientist in its usual reduce-science-to-pap-for-the-masses style makes his complex ideas easy to understand.

0230 GMT September 1, 2010

o Iran's Newspaper Kayhan and Ms. Carla Bruni So Iran decided it was going to stone to death a woman, mother of two children, accused of infidelity and conspiring to murder her husband, who was killed.

o World gets upset, Iran says it will not execute the woman by stoning, but reserves the right to execute her some other way.

o Fair enough, we at Orbat.com have no clue what the truth of the case is, and it's for Iran to handle the judicial aspects. We have no comment on that.

o Then the First Lady of France, Ms. Carla Bruni, writes a letter to the woman. Ms. Bruni is part of an international effort to save the woman's life.

o So the Iranian state-run newspaper Kayhan first calls Mrs. Bruni an Italian prostitute; then after an Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry gently chides the newspaper saying calling foreign dignitaries names is inappropriate, the newspaper calls for Mrs. Bruni's death.

o Kayhan is not doing any favors to either Iran or to Islam when it froths like a mad dog. Of course, seeing as Kayhan is state-run, obviously some factional fight is going on among Iranian elites.

o The point is, does anyone really care about what are the finer points of internal Iranian arguments? We think not. The enemies of Islam will seize on this incident as just one more in an endless series to show Islam is a savage, cruel, and barbaric religion.

o And of course, the 90% of Muslims who probably agree that both stoning to death and the name calling are wrong, will not utter a word, further convincing non-Muslims that Islam as a religion is unacceptable.

o The extremists, who believe that anyone who doesn't agree with them are not true Muslims, will care less what the world thinks. But here is the problem: if you go around shouting anyone who doesn't agree with you should die, and you follow up by taking active steps to kill those who disagree, regardless of if they are Muslims, you end up at a point where the rest of the world decides it has had enough and you must die.

o So of course the extremists will say it is their honor to die for their cause. History shows that who kill for their cause, and are ready to die for their cause, usually get their wish.

o Department of Irony Mr. Glenn Beck, a conservative media person, says that President Obama's version of Christianity is not recognized by Americans.

o We have no idea what kind of Christian is Mr. Obama or if Americans reject that kind. We do know Mr. Beck converted to Mormonism, and many Christians do not accept that Mormons are Christian.

o A Cheer for the Indian Supreme Court Here is a legal decision that will turn white the hair of American constitutionalists. The Indian Supreme Court told the Government of India that rather than letting food grain stocks rot, the stocks should be distributed to the poor.

o The Union Food Minister, who is quite a "in your face, b___h" type of politician, said he'd think about the Court's suggestion.

o The Court told him it wasn't a suggestion, it was an order.

o We have to admit, that the American side of the Editor definitely feels a bit seasick when he sees the Supreme Court handing down social decisions left and right. After all, India has a free press, a democratically elected government, a constitution, and an elected Parliament. The Supreme Court should hardly proclaim itself the final authority on a matter of socioeconomic policy.

o But lets reverse the issue. Let's suppose that in America, millions of tons of foodgrains a year the government buys for buffer stocks just rot, or are eaten by rats, or otherwise contaminated. Suppose half of Americans get by on $2/day, and a third suffer from malnutrition. Suppose neither the free press, nor the freely elected government or the freely elected politicians, care much if the foodgrains are spoiled and that a third of America goes hungry each night while rats eat foodgrain stocks.

o Lets suppose this has been going on for decades.

o Would you still say the US Supreme Court should not issue an order saying rather than lets stocks spoil the food should be given to food banks?

o You see, Americans are rich. We can afford to develop ideologies and stick them them like leeches regardless of the reality. But India, while it has made unbelievable progress in 20 years, is still poor. Those foodgrains in Indian government buffer stocks are paid for by taxpayer money. Because in India excise and sales taxes are universally levied, it doesn't matter how poor you are, if you buy anything for cash you're paying taxes.

o No one is confiscating the foodgrains from private people to feed the poor. All the Indian supreme Court is saying: "give it away if the best alternative you can come up is letting the foodgrains rot."

o Case in point: Yesterday in India's parliament some MPs were trying to get answers to why 4-million tons of rice stocks in the buffer have gone bad. of course, no one will be held accountable. India is not America. That's why maybe, just maybe, we have to swallow an activist Supreme Court.

0230 GMT August 31, 2010

o Karakoram Highway and Railroad Reader Sparsh Amin and Editor have been discussing the widening of the Karakoram Highway and plans to build a railroad from Kashgar to Havelian, Pakistan, where the line would link to the Pakistan railway network.

o It seems the highway is to be expanded from 10-meters to 30-meters, which indicates six lanes. Some have expressed doubt about the feasibility of a railway through the Karakorams, which are geologically young and unstable mountains. Others have said that parts of the railway will cost $30-million a kilometer, which might make the venture uneconomical. The planned oil pipeline along this route has been shelved for now and the proposed gas pipeline Iran-Pakistan-China appears to be on hold.

o Mr. Amin doubts the highway/railway can transport bulk commodities at rates competitive with sea freight. Perhaps China intends to use these routes for containerized cargo, but again, its hard to see how the economics work out even though containerships will take twice the time. One way the routes via Pakistan may make sense is if China is planning large-scale development of its westernmost regions.

o Perhaps some of our readers know more about this topic?

o Pakistan floods receding says BBC and rivers are expected to return to their normal flow in 10-12 days as the monsoon is coming to an end.

o Aside from the immense problem of resettling 17-million Internally Displaced Persons, crops cannot be planted in time in much of the flood affected area. That's if the farmers have managed to save their seed stocks. Additionally there is another great problem: livestock losses have been heavy so there will be a shortage of milk and motive power.

o Some estimates are that Pakistan may have to wait till 2012 for a normal harvest. This is going to depress incomes of people who need the money the most as well as cause food shortages.

o Political Correctness Watch 1 An Israeli is leading the charge to get a US Navy building in San Diego, California, rebuilt because from the air it looks like a swastika. When the architects designed the building 40 years ago, they thought they were making a building with four "L" shaped blocks.

o http://www.haaretz.com/blogs/focus-u-s-a/focus-u-s-a-the-ongoing-saga-of-the-u-s-navy-swastika-building-1.309169

o We sincerely hope this gentleman does not ever visit India.

o Political Correctness Watch 2 The US Department of Justice has challenged a recent Arizona law that requires residents to carry proof they are in the US legally. The reason? US DOJ says the law unfairly targets Hispanics.

o We agree this law is unfair because the Arizona Government is not targeting the hordes of white, yellow, and black people trying to slip into Arizona from Mexico.

o Political Correctness Watch 3 In Mexico authorities found a mass grave with the bodies of 72 Central Americans, apparently illegals murdered while on their way to the US. The Government of Mexico has been criticized by some for failing to do enough to protect illegals transiting its territory.

o Letter from Reader Agneya on the need for infrastructure for India's poor Indeed the poor in need basic infrastructure, but that should start with agriculture. The land, and especially the water from the Monsoon, in India is inefficiently used. This is a byproduct of British rule, when such infrastructure was destroyed. The agricultural output from India is nothing compared to its true potential, and with two-thirds of the country belonging to the agricultural sector, naturally, it needs to be strengthened. This should start with proper use and storage of water - both river and rain. India has the potential to dominate the world agriculturally.

0230 GMT August 30, 2010

o Sinai missile cache consists of SAM-7s says Haaretz of Israel. The Strela has not been manufactured for over 30-years as far as we know, so we're wondering even if these are "new" missiles what good are they. Egyptian police have discovered more arms caches, including one three kilometers from Rafah. The new discoveries include 10 anti-tank mines and two caches of machine guns.

o Meanwhile, so much for the Egyptian "Iron Wall" Egypt has been trying to stop Gaza tunnel smugglers by creating an underground iron wall. So apparently the smugglers have simply cut through the wall and continue merrily about their business.

o In case anyone wonders why this sudden new Egyptian love for Israel, the effort to stop arms getting to Gaza has nothing to do with Israel. Egypt is worried that the Islamic Brotherhood will brings the arms into Egypt and use them against the government. Not that Egypt had much concern for the Palestinians, but this concern had led Egypt to cooperate with Israel in the people/material blockade of Gaza. So much for Arab brotherhood, which was a joke from the very start.

o Russian-built SSN leaves for India The Nerpa, an Akula 3-class boat, is leased for ten years at a cost of $650-million. This is not the first time that India has leased a Russian nuclear submarine. In the 1980s, a Charlie-class boat served with the Indian Navy for a few years. It was to be the first of three, we don't recalled now what happened to the plan. The new boat will have the same name, INS Chakra, as the previous SSN. Unlike the US Navy, which seems to have no regard for its warship naming conventions, the Indian Navy is careful about names, particularly traditional ones.

o To get details about the travails of India's submarines programs, and their direction, read http://ajaishukla.blogspot.com/ You will also learn about the shenanigans that seem to be a perpetual feature of Indian defense production. The case in point is a radar which was supposed to be built indigenously. The government agency in charge simply purchased them overseas, and marked up the price. Yes, there is massive corruption in China too, as much in their defense sector as anywhere else. But at the end of the day the Chinese do not do stupid things like spend 25-years on a competition for 155mm guns, then cancel the whole thing and start rebidding.

o You can also read about the progress of a proposed contract for 2600 IFVs to replace the Army BMP-2s. This will cost near $11-billion. And you thought India was a poor country. Forty years ago, the cost of raising an entire armored division was $300-million, which will today suffice to buy IFVs for one mechanized infantry battalion (plus reserves). It was only after the 1971 the Government of India finally agreed to a second armored division, to achieve parity with Pakistan which had had two armored divisions for 7 previous years. The reason? Money. Now days $10-billion seems to be a standard large contract for India: for example, the six squadrons of fighter planes to be purchased from abroad, six French submarines, and the IFV deal. The artillery modernization will also run about $10-billion.

o Now if only India would use some of its new wealth to provide the poor with basic infrastructure, we for one would have no complaints. The other day some genius came up with the finding that the reason India has so many really poor people has nothing to do with money, it has to do with organization. This in turn is blamed on the indifference of the elites. Fancy that. Believe it or not, this has always been the case with India, even when it really was a poor country.

0230 GMT August 29, 2010

o The solution to the secret Northern Territories tunnels as mentioned in the New York Times (see August 28, 2008 lead article) may lie with uranium.

o Sanjith Menon sends an article from the website of the Balawaristan National Front, which says it is fighting for independence of the Kashmir Northern Areas, specifically the districts of Chitral (North West Frontier Province), Gilgit, and Baltistan (last two are Northern Areas). The BNF says Balawaristan is occupied by China, Pakistan, and India.

o The claim China is occupying territory comes from the gifting by Pakistan of 2500-square-miles of the Northern Areas to Pakistan in 1963. The claim India is occupying territory comes because India some territory in the southern parts of the Northern Areas.

o Sanjith Menon saysThere are unconfirmed reports especially from the Balwaristan National Front, they suggest that there are high grade Uranium deposits in the region and the Chinese are there to exploit it. Here is the news put on the BNF site on Friday, July 16, 2010:

o In Choporsan, Gojal, Hunza of Gilgit, 80 Sq Kilo area of mine which is being used in space technology has been given to China by Pakistan. In Shimshal of Hunza near China border (this is the area where 2500 Sq
Miles area has already been ceded to China by Pakistan in 1963 by violating UNCIP resolution). Pakistani goverment has given about 1200 sq km (30% total area) leased out for Pakistani forces. On high pasture of Chhalt Nagar a strayed missile has hit Chinese work mining area recently.

o In Gandai of Yasen, 4000 Blast were done by Chinese Military Engineers in 2008, as result glacier burst and local people climbed up the mountain and kicked them out Chinese. Pakistani forces arrested local people, tortured and put 22 local leaders behind bars.

o The translation, unfortunately, is bad.

o The presence of Uranium comes in from the same source.
http://www.balawaristan.net/index.php/Latest-news/world-urged-to-save-gilgit-baltistan-parwana-in-mumbai.html (Editor's note: we could not get the URL to work.)

o Egyptians recover 190 SAMs from Sinai says Jerusalem Post. It is assumed the cache was destined for Gaza and was located in a remote area in the middle of the peninsula.

o Bruce Riedel writes a very peculiar article suggesting that since the US cannot accept an Israeli strike against Iran, US should seek to enhance Israeli security through various measures.

o One sensible measure mentioned by Mr. Riedel is, of course, already in place, a joint defense against Iranian missiles.

o But Mr. Riedel goes on to suggest NATO membership for Israel, plus the transfer of nuclear missile submarines.

o Now, Mr. Riedel has always struck us a sensible sort of fellow, and we cannot even begin to imagine from where he is getting these wild ideas. Israel in NATO? About as likely as Iran in NATO. Transfer nuclear submarines? Beggers the imagination.

o In Washington, you can never be quite sure why someone says something. Have they gone Looney Tuners? Trial Balloon? Quietly backing an interest group while pretending to be "objective"? Whatever Mr. Riedel's motive, he has certainly managed to confuse us. We're going to have to be extra careful while reading his analyses?

o http://nationalinterest.org/article/israel-attacks-3907?page=3

0230 GMT August 28, 2010

Chinese Troops Are In Pakistan Kashmir

o Reader Vikhur Akula sends us a New York Times article saying 7,000 to 11,000 Chinese troops look to be taking up permanent residence in Kashmir's Northern Territories, which are under Pakistani control.

o We need to note that Mr. Selig Harrison, has studied South Asia for decades. He is both a journalist and a scholar, and is careful about what he says. Below are excerpts from the article, which you may access at http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/27/opinion/27iht-edharrison.html?_r=1

o Islamabad is handing over de facto control of the strategic Gilgit-Baltistan region in the northwest corner of disputed Kashmir to China.

o The entire Pakistan-occupied western portion of Kashmir stretching from Gilgit in the north to Azad (Free) Kashmir in the south is closed to the world, in contrast to the media access that India permits in the eastern part, where it is combating a Pakistan-backed insurgency. But reports from a variety of foreign intelligence sources, Pakistani journalists and Pakistani human rights workers reveal two important new developments in Gilgit-Baltistan: a simmering rebellion against Pakistani rule and the influx of an estimated 7,000 to 11,000 soldiers of the People’s Liberation Army.

o China wants a grip on the region to assure unfettered road and rail access to the Gulf through Pakistan. It takes 16 to 25 days for Chinese oil tankers to reach the Gulf. When high-speed rail and road links through Gilgit and Baltistan are completed, China will be able to transport cargo from Eastern China to the new Chinese-built Pakistani naval bases at Gwadar, Pasni and Ormara, just east of the Gulf, within 48 hours.

o Many of the P.L.A. soldiers entering Gilgit-Baltistan are expected to work on the railroad. Some are extending the Karakoram Highway, built to link China’s Sinkiang Province with Pakistan. Others are working on dams, expressways and other projects.

o Until recently, the P.L.A. construction crews lived in temporary encampments and went home after completing their assignments. Now they are building big residential enclaves clearly designed for a long-term presence.

o Media attention has exposed the repression of the insurgency in the Indian-ruled Kashmir Valley. But if reporters could get into the Gilgit-Baltistan region and Azad Kashmir, they would find widespread, brutally-suppressed local movements for democratic rights and regional autonomy.

o In Gilgit and Baltistan, where Sunni jihadi groups allied with the Pakistan Army have systematically terrorized the local Shiite Muslims. Gilgit and Baltistan are in effect under military rule. Democratic activists there want a legislature and other institutions without restrictions like the ones imposed on Free Kashmir, where the elected legislature controls only 4 out of 56 subjects covered in the state constitution. The rest are under the jurisdiction of a “Kashmir Council” appointed by the president of Pakistan.

o Mr. Harrison also notes there are 22 tunnels in the Northern Territories that are closed to Pakistanis. The rail route between China and Pakistan will require much tunneling. But if their purpose is purely civil, why can Pakistanis not enter? Further, as far as we know the Pakistanis have only recently signed an agreement for the rail line. So these tunnels must have been built earlier. Are they part of the Karakoram Highway? This would not seem to be the case because Pakistani trucks are the major users of the KKH. So there would be no question of declaring them off-limits.

o Mr. Harrison's story also explains the fighting between two groups in the Northern Areas Dawn of Karachi reported the other day. The fighting would have had to been between Shias and Sunnis.

o Letter from Shawn Dudley on should the US assist terror-group charities On reading the bit about Long War Journal's article on relief agencies run by terror groups, I'm reminded by the Jim Jones People's Temple from the 1970s. Jones was a rarity: a "Christian" Communist (I'm not kidding), who used his church-based organization to gain power and control over people while avoiding scrutiny under 1st Amendment protection. The People's Temple used widespread charity works in the poorest areas of first Indiana and then San Francisco to recruit members into his organization. Once inside of the "Temple" it was as ruthless of a totalitarian environment as you could imagine: Kim and Mugabe could take lessons from this guy.

o Ultimately the People's Temple ran afoul of the law after 20+ years and he moved the entire 1,000+ group to Guyana (having failed to find a more suitable location in Brazil). Even in such splendid isolation the US government was still in slow pursuit and following an investigative tour of his commune by a Bay Area congressman Jones ordered the man killed along with reporters and defectors. He then proceeded to slaughter the whole of his congregation to avoid having them be captured (liberated) by the Marines.

o The point of this story is two-fold: one is that use of charity by totalitarian groups to recruit members is nothing new: the Communists have done it all over, as has Hamas and Hezbollah. This is a strong tactic to prey on the most vulnerable in society. The second point is that, upon taking the aid, the recipients were basically sentenced to death by their "benefactors" as they were used in unspeakable machinations by their betters in the organization.

o Bringing this back to the question of "do we cooperate with any aid givers in the light of such disaster," the answer is clearly no. It matters not that they have bread in their hand in front: the hand in back is holding chains and that is surely not to the benefit of those caught in the web. Terror is terror, and Slavery is slavery. We should tolerate neither, and those who bring such pain on others should not be allowed to further proliferate no matter the circumstances.

o Letter from Richard Dickhaus on US assistance to Pakistan terror-group charities My thoughts are simple and I do appreciate subject is complex.Sometimes I wonder if our goal is to win.

o We should be there to win, if we choose to engage with enemy then they remain our enemy until we are no longer engaged.

o No time out or halftime show. George Washington may have changed history by not recognizing a holiday break. Why do we refuse to do the same thing now?

o It is bad enough that our tax money is being misused or stolen by our own incompetent or corrupt people but to think it is being used by our enemy is even worse.

o Editor's note The director of USAID has denied that the charity he visited is terror-related. Nonetheless, Mr. Bill Roggio of Longwarjournal showed in detail how the chairty is just a front for the particular terror group. Media says the USAID director had to leave the camp in some haste after his bodyguard told him they apprehended a threat from some of the people among the crowd that the director was addressing.

o Sparsh Amin on Selig Harrison's article Mr. Amin writes that China cannot substitute a Pakistan-China rail and road link for cargo ships because of the economics of rail and road traffic compared to sea traffic. He also wonders how high-speed these links will be because the Karakorams are a formidable obstacle to any construction of a high-speed line.

o We did a few calculations and came up with a back-of-envelope figure of 10,000-tons a day for the Pakistan-Kashgar railroad, which will be broad gauge. There are all sorts of qualifications to this figure, obviously but it is not unreasonable. This indicates high-value cargo will go through the Karakorams rather than bulk.

o It also appears that the Chinese have backed out of the Pakistan-China oil pipeline, and postponed the Pakistan-China gas pipeline in favor one going from Burma to China.

o 848-tons of blasting explosives missing in India Reader Sanjith Menon tells us 164 trucks carrying 848-tons of explosives have gone missing in India between a production factory in Rajasthan and a private dealer in Madhya Pradesh. The shipment includes several hundred thousand detonators.

o BBC quotes Indian sources to say that likely the explosives have gone to illegal mining outfits, but there is concern that Naxal Communist rebels may have obtained explosives. The police have arrested two men and are looking for five others, so presumably they know what they are talking about.

o We know that our western readers will be reading this with dropped jaws: how can one hundred and sixty four trucks just go missing to begin with, leave alone that many carrying explosives.

o We'd like to be able to explain this to our readers. But it would take too much time. You have to take it on faith that no one in India will think this is at all a strange occurrence. India is a fabulous land in many different ways. and this casualness is just one of them.

0230 GMT August 27, 2010

Bill Roggio of Longwarjournal presents a moral dilemma. He notes that the head of USAID visited a a Pakistan flood relief camp run by a terror group to deliver two truckloads of supplies and to commend the group for its efforts. US Government has denied that the visit was to to a terror group, but Mr. Roggio explains that though the group is operating another name, it is very much a proscribed terror group. The moral dilemma is: should the US place priority on helping Pakistanis by working with any credible relief group, or should it place priority on the GWOT? The group in question has strong ties to Al Qaeda and Pakistan ISI. What are your thoughts, readers? http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/08/usaid_leader_in_paki.php

o Kashmir gets 11 times its share of Central assistance says the Indian daily The Hindu, quoting an opposition parliamentary leader. The parliamentarian says that Kashmir has 1% of India's population but gets 11% of Central money given to the states.

o Editor was disturbed to learn this. Why is the Government of India trying to bribe Kashmiri Muslims, particularly when they are taking the money with one hand and rejecting India with the other?

o Either Muslim Kashmiris are part of India or they are not. The Government of India says, and we accepted, that they are part of India. That being the case, they need to be treated just as are other Indians. No special status, no autonomy, no toleration of people calling for secession.

o For decades Muslim Kashmiris have made a fool out of the central government. We can hardly blame them for so doing when the central government just keeps begging to be kicked in its large, fat rear. Separatist Muslim Kashmiris are not evil: they are simply taking advantage of a center that is constantly bent on appeasing them. if GOI keeps assuring them they are special, why shouldn't they think are special.

o Readers know we are hardly supporters of the Israeli Army. It is nowhere near as good as it thinks, and its complete indifference to the fate of civilians during its actions is reprehensible.

o At the same time, we feel the current controversy over pictures taken by soldiers including a woman, showing them with Palestinian prisoners, is way overblown. The soldiers are not mistreating the prisoners, nor is there any allegation they did so. Yes, Geneva frowns on parading prisoners for the media. But the men in question are not military prisoners in any sense. Moreover, the upper half of their faces are covered, so you cannot make out who they are.

o It is PC-ism run amok to put those soldiers on trial. we would like the Israeli Army to show some perspective and spend its energy on better training rather than on punishing soldiers who are guilty of no more than youthful hijinks.

o http://www.jpost.com/Israel/Article.aspx?id=186141

o Letter from Hale Cullom on why Taliban are fighting even though they know US is leaving.

o In answer to your question about why the Taliban isn't just laying back and waiting for the US to leave, I would suggest that local leaders are looking ahead to the struggle after the US departure. It stands to reason that Afghanistan will be in a much less nailed down condition than Iraq, and that there will be a good deal of fighting between factions once the US leaves. Experience in actual operations against US troops will certainly be valuable for the survivors.

o Also, it follows that local Taliban commanders and those of other factions want to be able to claim glory for forcing the infidels out -- inflecting casualties (or claims of inflicting casualties) on US forces probably helps local reputations. We know the US will probably leave anyway, but credulous locals may buy the argument that the Taliban drove them out.

o Increasing attacks and activities also allows those who have blotted their copybooks by collaborating with the US or its Kabul friends a shot at redeeming themselves and their families by joining the struggle (who will be the highest ranking Pham Van Dinh in this war?). They might get killed off, but it might help their families work their passage to some kind of safety in a post-US Afghanistan.

o The US departure from Afghanistan was always certain, at some point. But proclaiming it, and the date, in advance was just plain stupid.

o On Gini constants from Prof. Feisal Khan It is meaningless to talk about Gini Coefficients (presumably for income and not wealth) in China without looking at whether the coefficient given is (i) before taxes, (ii) after taxes or (iii) before taxes and transfer payments (both cash and in-kind. You can also get really fancy and try to work out the market value of subsidies (if any) and factor that in (unless that is already done in counting transfers).

o If you do this kind of breakdown, the data for the US, for example, looks very different ‘before’ and ‘after.’

o There is an excellent post on this at http://blog.sustainablemiddleclass.com/?page_id=162. Scroll down and look at the second post, the one from Craig Shelton.

o Editor's note Professor Khan teaches economics at Hobart College. We have no idea how the Chinese Gini Coefficient was calculated, but it's from official sources that are expressing concern about China's income disparity. In the article Prof. Khan cites, the US Gini Coefficient is computed at 34.

0230 GMT August 26, 2010

o Why is the Taliban attacking now that it knows US is preparing to leave starting mid-2011? This is one of the mysteries of the day. A number of people, including most recently the Commandant of the US Marine Corps, believe they are attacking because the US has set a withdrawal date. But this makes little sense. The reason insurgent groups like the Mahadi Army stopped attacking US forces in Iraq was (a) they were getting massacred each time they attacked; (b) it occurred to them that since the US was going to leave - this is before a withdrawal date was announced - there was no sense in sacrificing lives and dissipating strength.

o In Afghanistan, the (a) above also applies. Whenever US/NATO troops are involved, the Taliban suffer heavily. So why aren't they following (b), especially since the US has set a withdrawal date?

o Thoughts, readers?

o Trouble in Pakistan Kashmir Normally if Kashmir is in the news its usually Indian Kashmir. The Pakistanis keep their part of Kashmir under very tight control. So we were surprised to learn from Dawn of Pakistan that two groups - unidentified, by the way - have been having at each other in Gilgit, the capital of the Northern Territories of Kashmir, plus in three other towns, plus at other places. In Gilgit, Dawn says, 70,000 bullets were fired in the fighting which left four dead.

o Authorities have called in the paramilitary Northern Area Scouts and the Punjab Rangers, and issued shoot-in-sight orders.

o This shoot-in-sight business is quite interesting. Human Rights groups would have a heart attack if they understood what it entails. One version of shoot-on-sight is any armed person not in a uniform gets killed without warning. The other version is that anyone violating curfew, armed or not, gets shot without warning.

o Terrible, isn't it? Not really. People in the Indian subcontinent are peculiar in that most of the time they are "live and let live". Everyone gets along, regardless of ethnicity or caste or religion. But if trouble starts, sub continental people simply go berserk, and violence escalates so rapidly that the police simply cannot handle it. That's when shoot on sight comes in. It is the fastest and most efficacious way of stopping the violence. It is by far the best way to minimize loss of life.

o In the terrible anti-Sikh riots that broke out in Delhi after the 1984 murder of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, by her Sikh bodyguards, the death toll quickly went past 3000. Then the Army was called in, with shoot on sight orders. Within hours the violence finished. It is not known if the army actually shot anyone - these statistics are never given out. But Editor was in Delhi at the time and for some years later. He never heard anyone speak of army firing. People know when the army enters, that's it. You either stop rioting, looting, and murdering, or you will be killed.

o We've mentioned this early in the context of the US occupation of Germany. Contrary to what most people think, the German surrender did not mean insurgent bands were not attacking US forces. But a shoot-to-kill if armed order was issued. Brutal as the order was, and sad as it was that many teenaged boys drafted into the insurgent bands were shot down, it ended the violence quickly. Editor recalls reading a letter to the editor in the Washington Post, where a lady tells of her father who was responsible for the German police in a big area. He was the only American in sight. He did not need to travel in armed convoy to get from home to work and vice-versa. He did what he had to do, armed at best with a pistol.

o Now lets scan Iraq. Iraq was occupied by the US. Any killing, whether of civilians or insurgents, was investigated as if it was a murder case back home. Sure, a lot of soldiers got away with their "crimes". But when you get a situation when the rules-of-engagement said you were not to shoot a fleeing insurgent - even if armed and wanted, then you've pretty much lost control. And that means the Human Rights people are somewhat mollified, but everyone suffers much more.

0230 GMT August 25, 2010

o US, ROK preparing military contingencies for Korean reunification Reader Luxembourg sends an article from Breitbart.com, an online news aggregator, that says the purpose of the current US-ROK military exercises is to examine military responses to several contingencies ending in reunficiation. One envisages a counteroffensive if DPRK attacks, stopping at the Chongchon River 80-km north of Pyongyang. Breitbart quotes ROK's Yonhap which also says the purpose of the current "stabilization" exercise is reunification.

o The website is run by Andrew Brietbart, who helped Arianna Huffington set up her website, and who writes for the conservative Washington Times. http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.60d0175d237b195337baaf43871770ad.491&show_article=1

o Meanwhile, ROK MinDef reports the presence of a large number of reinforcement troops near Pyongang. It is speculated they are present for the October 10th party meeting which is expected to name Kim Il Jong's youngest son as his successor.

o Hezbollah-Sunni clash in downtown Beirut kills two, says Jerusalem Post, including a Hezbollah district commander. The Lebanese Army has taken up position in the area, but JPost says firing is still going on. The two involved groups are known to periodically clash with other. Hezbollah is Shiite.

o China's Parliament seeks to act against income inequality says Xinhua of China. Inequality is measured using the Gini coefficient: 0 indicates perfect equality, 1 indicates maximum inequality. Sweden has a Gini coefficient of 0.23.

o In China, the coefficient has shot up to 0.47, which is considered dangerous as the maximum coefficient before social instability sets in is said to be 0.4. But 30-years ago, when China began its economic revolution, the coefficient was 0.21 to 0.27.

o The US Gini coefficient in 2000 was 45, and should be closing in on 48. By 2045 according to the US Labor Bureau, the coefficient is expected to hit 0.55, which is where Mexico is at currently. We tried to get a URL for the original study, but the URL has been moved so we are quoting http://www.sustainablemiddleclass.com/Gini-Coefficient.html

o Al-Shabab kills 30 in a suicide attack in Mogadishu's small safe zone. The dead included six members of parliament taken hostage and then murdered, and five soldiers.

o Meanwhile, additional troops from Uganda have arrived to reinforce the under strength African Union peacekeeping force which controls a few blocks of Mogadishu. We estimate the arrivals as the advance party of one infantry battalion.

o All creatures great and small wrote Cecil Alexander in his hymn "All things bright and beautiful" (1848). Now we have to thank some very small creatures for gobbling up oil from the Gulf Of Mexico Macondo well. Apparently these microbes, a new species, love the light, sweet crude from Macondo, and have been pigging out, without depleting oxygen.

o There is now dispute on the underwater oil. Some are saying it is still around. Others, mainly the US Government, is saying not. A NOAA research ship is in the Gulf to check on the underwater oil. So far it has not detected anything significant.

o Odd facts about the Gulf before man started drilling for oil, the equivalent of one Exxon Valdez spill was occurring from natural seepage. And Business Week says that even before the recent spill, the Gulf was in catastrophic shape due to fertilizer runoff from the Mississippi River.

o Stranger than fiction A bizarre story from France. A mother's brother dies. She calls her son to persuade him to attend the uncle's funeral. Son refuses. Mother and son quarrel. Mother goes to her brother's funeral. As the party is leaving, someone discovers a marker in the poor persons' part of the cemetery. The marker has the name of the son.

o Apparently at some point after the argument the son died without proper identification so his mother had no idea he was dead.

0230 GMT August 24, 2010

o US General says he will step up training for Afghan security forces He plans to recruit and train 140,000 soldiers and police in the next 15-months, aiming to offset a 50% attrition rate. In the police, the attrition rate (which here means desertions) has fallen from 70% to 47%. Is this progress? We don't think so, because once Afghan forces have to take the lead, the desertions are going to zoom up. Incidentally, the Taliban are particularly fond of targeting the police with the enthusiastic support of the locals, who correctly look on Afghan police as a plague.

o We don't want to rain on anyone's parade, but no fighting force can be built when 50% of its recruits drop out or desert. If one of two Afghans who enlists decides he's made a mistake - and this is after the US has been training people for 7-8 years, its time to face the obvious: Afghans do not want to fight for their country.

o Caracas has a murder rate of 200 per 100,000 says New York Times, compared to 23 in Bogota and 14 in Rio. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/23/world/americas/23venez.html?pagewanted=2&ref=general&src=me

o In the US, among cities with more than 1-million population, Chicago is highest at 18 and New York is 6. Among cities larger than 250,000 people, New Orleans is highest at 68. This is almost twice the rates for Baltimore, Detroit, and Washington DC, which are hardly models of communal harmony and calm.

o Chinese set another record This time for the biggest traffic jam ever. Reuters says a 100-km jam on a highway leading into Beijing lasted 9-days.

o Last year China became the world's largest producer of automobiles.

o Letter from reader Ravikiran re. Kashmir “Kashmiris wish to emphasize that their land is not a real estate which can be parceled out between two disputants but the home of a nation with a history far more compact and coherent than India’s and far longer than Pakistan’s.” This quote is from the article you carried yesterday.

o Every person occupying any piece of land can say that. Please ask them how the name Kashmir came along. Why not encourage the so called self determination in other parts of the world. Kashmir is already free i.e., it is part of India which is free and hence it is free. It is India. Asserting that Kashmir has a history far longer than India … please ask the gentleman to read history again.

o All princely states on the planned borders of India had to accede either to India or to Pakistan. The decision was solely that of the ruler. The Maharaja of Kashmir acceded to India and that is all there is to it.

0230 GMT August 23, 2010

o Top "Caucuses Emirate" leader killed Longwarjournal reports that in the same Dagestan clash that saw the death of the March 2010 Moscow metro bombings, the leader of the "Caucuses Emirate", a much more senior figure, was also killed. The emirate is allied with AQ

o Good for the Russians. Being an old Cold War type Editor is not comfortable with Russia, but when it comes to Islamic fundamentalism, the more leaders are killed the better, and we're not finicky about who does the job. Sure, they will be replaced. The solution is not to leave them alone, but to kill them faster than they can be replaced.

o http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/08/russians_kill_top_ca.php

o Pakistan accepts Indian flood aid Critics said this was done after US pressure. Demmed busy, these Americans, what? Not content to be behind everything that happens in the world, they still find time to pressure Pakistan to accept Indian aid. Of course, the Americans have been unable to pressure Pakistan to get rid of the Taliban, but there so omnipotent we're sure the alleged "failure" is part of a sinister plot.

o Another person accusing the US of dirty tricks is the Wikileaks founder. We noted yesterday that two women visited a Swedish police station alleging rape by the gentleman, but they did not file a formal complaint. The on-duty prosecutor nonetheless issued an arrest warrant, which a higher prosecutor cancelled after, she said, she received additional information.

o So there you have it: the Wikileaks person thinks the Pentagon might be behind the false accusation. The gent travels secretly, so not only did the Pentagon figure the gent was in Sweden, it arranged for two women to entrap the poor gent.

o "I don't know who's behind this but we have been warned that for example the Pentagon plans to use dirty tricks to spoil things for us", said the gent to a Swedish media source."I have also been warned about sex traps," he added. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11053329)

o But clearly the Pentagon was incompetent because the two women refused to file a charge. So there you also have it: why do people get agitated about US plots? Clearly none of them work.

Kashmir: A Moderate's Viewpoint

Dr. Ghulam Nabi Fai

o Editor's note Editor's position on Kashmir and Pakistan is well known. At the same time, this is not a propaganda blog even though we have definite positions we take. We are obliged to put across different viewpoints.

o Dr. Manmohan Singh, the Prime Minister of India’s assertion that "Kashmir is an integral part of India” needs to be supplemented by some observations from the viewpoint of the people of Kashmir. This deserves to be borne in mind by all those who wish the conflict to be justly resolved once and for all.
When the Kashmir dispute erupted in 1947-1948, the United States took the stand that the future status of Kashmir must be ascertained in accordance with the wishes and aspirations of the people of the territory.

o The U.N. Security Council adopted a resolution on 21 April 1948 which was based on that unchallenged principle. So the idea that ‘Kashmir is an integral part of India’ is in contravention to India’s international obligations. Any such suggestion is an insult to the intelligence of the people of Kashmir. The people revolted against the status quo and status quo cannot be an answer?

o Also, Kashmiris wish to emphasize that their land is not a real estate which can be parceled out between two disputants but the home of a nation with a history far more compact and coherent than India’s and far longer than Pakistan’s. No settlement of their status will hold unless it is explicitly based on the principles of self-determination and erases the so-called line of control, which is in reality the line of conflict.

o Secondly, under all international agreements, agreed by both India and Pakistan, negotiated by the United Nations and endorsed by the Security Council, Kashmir does not belong to any member state of the United Nations. So, if Kashmir does not belong to any member state of the United Nations, then the claim that ‘Kashmir is an integral part of India’ does not stand. And if ‘Kashmir is not an integral part of India’ then Kashmiris cannot be called separatist or secessionist. Because Kashmir cannot secede from a country – like India – to which it has never acceded to in the first place.

o My opinion is confirmed by a poll conducted jointly by major news outlets on Aug 12, 2007: CNN-IBN and Hindustan Times in India and Dawn and News in Pakistan. A majority of those polled in Kashmir Valley (87% to be precise) preferred freedom (Azadi). The Azadi means the rejection of the idea that ‘Kashmir is an integral part of India.’

o However, there is but one fair, just, legal, and moral solution to Kashmir which was provided by the United Nations. The procedures contemplated at early stage of the dispute at the United Nations for its solution may be varied in the light of changed circumstances but its underlying principle must be scrupulously observed if justice and rationality are not be thrown overboard. The setting aside of the UN resolution is one thing; the discarding of the principle they embodies is altogether another. So the settlement has to be in accordance with the wishes of the people; impartially ascertained; in conditions of freedom from intimidation.

o Kashmiris are open to a constitutional dispensation that answers all of India's legitimate national security and human rights concerns. With regard to the former, they are willing to explore permanent neutrality for Kashmir along the model of the 1955 Austrian State Treaty and a renunciation of war or the threat of force in international affairs along the model of Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution. They are willing to consider abandoning a military force like Costa Rica, Haiti, and Panama. Moreover, they hold no objection to providing community quotas in government offices along the lines of the 1960 Constitution for the Republic of Cyprus to safeguard against invidious discrimination of any religious or ethnic group, i.e., Pandit, Buddhist, Sikh, and Muslim alike.

o With good faith by all parties common ground leading to a final settlement of the Kashmir tragedy can be discovered.
And an appointment of a special envoy by the United Nations or by President Obama, like Bishop Desmond Tutu will hasten the way of peace and prosperity in the region of South Asia.

0230 GMT August 22, 2010

o Al-Shabab's Multi-National Force Dawn of Karachi says 11 insurgents in Somalia were killed when a bomb they were preparing exploded. The dead included: three Pakistanis, two Indians, one Afghani, one Algerian, and two Somalis. To us the arrival of Indians is highly inauspicious. We will attempt to contact Mandeep Sign Bajwa for more information on the implications.

o Russians say they have killed the organizer of the March metro attacks The attacks killed 40 people in Moscow earlier this year. The organizer died with four other rebels in a clash with security forces in Dagestan. The gentleman's wife was one of the suicide bombers that hit the Metro. Which leaves us wondering what kind of husband sends off his wife to blow herself up while keeping his own hide intact.

o Wikileaks leader rape arrest warrant withdrawn The Australian gentleman is visiting Sweden, where he feels safer than other places, apparently. Two women went to complain about rape and molestation but did not register a formal complaint. The prosecutor decided to register a charge anyway because of the seriousness of the allegation and the possibility evidence may be compromised. A higher prosecutor overruled the warrant. The molestation investigation is still on. In Sweden, we learn, molestation (presumably of a major) is not a jail offence.

o He is now preparing to release 15,000 more documents which earlier he held back for concern that the names contained within might put lives at risk.

o Aside from blowing wind - the stinky kind - the US Government seems to be doing nothing to get the gentleman in its custody. So we are guessing that despite all the weeping and wailing from the US Government at the time of the leaks, the matter is not particularly serious.

o The problem, however, remains. Breaking US law is breaking US law. If the US Government decides it is going to apply the law selectively, then it isn't much a of a government.

o From Walter Wallis: Korea 60 years ago the 6th of August I landed, with the 23rd Infantry, in Pusan. So today the 23rd, called Stryker under the new, incomprehensible to me order, departs Iraq. I guess parts of the 23rd are still in Korea so the old badge is still at battle risk.

My nephew is commanding a QM outfit out in the desert somewhere, and he says they still attract hostile attention. Since last we corresponded four years ago, my grandson, a mud Marine, spent 2 tours in Fallujah.

o Editor's note In one of Mr. Wallis's letters, he recalls the fur-lined boots worn by the ground observer for the air force attached to his unit. Mr. Wallis was frozen so cold he kept thinking if the observer got killed, he could grab his boots. A very small incident, but it shows the reality of war.

o US divisional organization In Mr. Wallis's day, three regiments made up a division. That was a simple system, but US Army deemed it inflexible for the demands of modern warfare. So it shifted to the Pentomic Division (PENTANA, 1955) , but before anyone got used to that it shifted to MOMAR (1959), another failed concept, and then came ROAD (1960s). That was followed by a modification called AIM (1970s) , followed by Division-86 in the 1980s. That was followed by the Army of Excellence, itself followed by Army XXI, and followed by the current organization. So it 55 years, the US Army went through seven changes in division structure.

o If from this you get the feeling the US Army is clueless on its division structure, you may be justified.

o Meantime the USMC still has it basic World War 2 division structure.

0230 GMT August 21, 2010

o Yemen fighting Eleven soldiers have been killed fighting rebels in a South Yemen city. Some say the rebels are allied to AQ; others say that they are with a separatist southern group.

o Americans should take heart: we in India have media idiots too The Press Trust of India, a news agency, has a story saying even after a triple increase in pay, Indian members of parliament are still paid 13 times less than US Congresspersons.

o To begin with this a big fat lie because the Indian count is for salaries only, not for perks and allowances. . PTI acknowledges as much, but that does not excuse the story because, as Times of India estimates, an Indian MP gets nine times her/his salary in perks and allowances. (We've taken accommodation provided to MPs at market rates rather than Times of India's assumption of half market rate). Yes, Congresspersons also do get some perks and allowances. But are these nine times their salaries?

o More to the point, India's per capita income is ~$1500+ (more on this estimate tomorrow), the US's is over $40,000. We rest our case.

o http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/After-hike-Indian-MP-gets-13-times-less-pay-than-US-lawmaker/articleshow/6382006.cms

o China cuts export quota of rare earths says Japan Asahi Shimbun. The 2009 quota was 50,000-tons, it will now be 30,000-tons. According to the paper, China produces 97% of the world's rare earths, India 2%, and Brazil 0.5%. We are not sure these figures are correct, we'll check. Rare earths are a group of 17 elements which are used mainly in production of alloys, such as batteries for electric and hybrid vehicles.

o The Chinese, with a completely straight face, say the reduction is because of "environmental" reasons. The real reason is, of course, by limiting exports China gives its domestic users of rare earths a significant advantage.

o Personally, we find it difficult to blame China for its openly monopolistic behavior. The world, after all, tolerates the oil cartel, which has caused untold loss to poor countries. So why should anyone get upset if China plays with the price of rare earths?

o Russian fires burning out says ITAR-TASS, thanks to rainfall. The emergency in three regions including Moscow has been lifted. Some 8500-square-kilometers has been burned.

o Piper Bill dies at age 88 We are sorry to report that Bill Millin, piper to the British commando leader Lord Lovatt, has died. The fictional adventures of Lord Lovatt and Piper Bill have been featured in orbat.com from time to time.

o Read how Bill came ashore at Normandy on June 6, 1944 inhttp://www.france24.com/en/20100820-normandy-town-mourns-d-day-piper-death-bill-millin-france-uk-world-war

0230 GMT August 20, 2010

o Nine US combat brigades still in Iraq A day after we reported that the last US combat brigade has left Iraq, we learn seven ground combat and two aviation combat brigades still remain in Iraq. DefenseNews says these brigades are named "Advise and Assist Brigades". 3rd Infantry Division has four brigades still in Iraq, 1st Armored Division has two, and 4th Infantry Division has one. There are also two National Guard Brigades.

o We'd like to ask a question: what is about the US Government that it cannot, just cannot, tell the truth? You can call a dog a cat, but that doesn't change the dog into a cat. saying, "oh, these brigades are here just to train the Iraqis and provide security, they're not for combat" is calling a dog a cat. And saying "oh, the only way they'll be involved in combat is at the request of the Iraqis" doesn't change anything either. And saying "See, most of the support troops needed to sustain these brigades in combat have gone, so it's not a real combat capability" also doesn't change anything either.

o www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=4750200&c=AME&s=LAN

o Least readers think we are overstating the case, DefenseNews says the Army deliberately chose to build its "Advise and Assist" and "Security" brigades on regular combat brigades because "the brigade(s) can shift the bulk of its operational focus from security force assistance to combat operations if necessary."

o Because President Obama is, well, the President, he and only he is responsible for this legal legerdemain. Where most Americans come from, what the President is doing is called lying. This is obviously far too sophisticated a concept for a Harvard graduate to grasp. First we had a Yale graduate who famously said "Depends what the definition of "is" is." Then we had a Yale+Harvard graduate who got us into a war by telling us lies. Now we have another Harvard graduate who said he would get us out of these foreign wars, only to expand one and to lie about the withdrawal of US combat troops from Iraq.

o Do you see a pattern here, people?

o Of the Supreme Court justices, four are from Harvard, three are from Yale, one started at Harvard but graduated from Columbia. There is only one "normal" Supreme. And incidentally he appears to be the only Supreme from west of the Mississippi. we are not saying Supremes lie. We are saying that first you have a presidency that thinks lying is okay, then you have a Supreme Court that nowhere near represents America, and last, you have a Congress that is - that is - gwarsh, we cant find any descriptive adjective that is acceptable in a family blog.

o Now, your Editor is not quite ready to relocate to Idaho and build a bunker. For one thing there's the slight matter of skin color. The Editor can pass for Sicilian or Greek, but definitely not for a Fraternal Member of the Bunker Society.

o At the same time, Editor is starting to think: maybe, just maybe those Americans who are displeased with Washington are not all mindless bigots. Maybe they have good reason to fear Washington, aka the Federal Government.

o Dr. Laura and the N-Word The (in)famous (depending on your point of view) TV advice giver Dr. Laura asked a rhetorical question on her show: Why is it wrong for non-blacks to use the word "nigger" when blacks use it all the time between themselves, often affectionately?

o Now, Editor is willing to concede that perhaps he has a different point of view on African Americans, having worked 14 years in jobs where African-Americans were either 70% or 99% of the people around. But if Dr. Laura cannot under why outsiders cannot use the word "nigger" while blacks can use it, it shows she has a very, very serious problem.

o At his last school, Editor was an honorary member of a local gang who called themselves the Swamp Niggers. Fortunately, his main duty as a gang-member was when asked "Where are the Swamp Niggers?" to respond "You're looking at one." That would crack everyone up - and incidentally appall the Hispanic students.

o It was also perfectly okay to reply, when a black student said: "Mr. Ravi, don't bother with him, he's just one dumb nigger" to say "No problem, I'm one too."

o But under no conditions, and Editor means no ifs-and-buts, just under no conditions could he call anyone a nigger, not even members of his gang.

o Now, however hurtful was Dr. Laura's saying "nigger" to make her point, she should not have been fired for that. Dr. Laura was asking a valid question. But in doing so she showed she is not a particularly intelligent person. How can you live in America and not know the answer?

0230 GMT August 19, 2010

o Last US combat brigade leaves Iraq 4th Brigade, 2nd Infantry Division has left Iraq. 50,000 troops remain to support the Iraq forces and will leave next year.

o Meanwhile, a US State Department spokesperson says the "US had a trillion dollar investment to protect in the country and also wanted to see a significant return on the 4,415 troops who have lost their lives in the conflict." http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-11020270 So it will pay close attention to Iraq; it is not abandoning the country.

o That the US "invested" in Iraq will come as a big surprise to Americans. Was any cost-benefit analysis done before making the investment? Was there a business plan? A 10% return on equity is not unreasonable - its nothing exciting, but okay. So US should be getting $100-billion a year from its investment in Iraq.

o Does the State Department have a plan it can perhaps share with the public as to how the US is to earn $100-billion from Iraq?

o See, here the Editor is tottering along peacefully, sunk in existentialist angst about not having a date for Saturday - again - and why is it so hard for a highly qualified to get a job (no luck in six months of trying, though he has been unemployed only for two), and then along comes a man who is paid a salary the Editor can only drool about by the taxpayer, who has to ruin the Editor's day with moronic statements

o Aside from the sheer absurdity of the statement, just think what a fine day anti-American conspiracy-theorists will have with the spokesperson's statement. "Aha! we told you the Americans went in for the oil!" Useless to point out that so far no American company has a major contract in Iraq: everything has gone to non-US firms.

o Useless also to point out that if American firms get Iraqi oil contracts, the firms will have to invest in Iraq. So the returns will go to them, not to the US Government which has spent the trillion or to the taxpayers, who gave that trillion to the US Government.

o US government will gain taxes on that money, true. But let's suppose that American oil companies do eventually get major contracts, and lets suppose they get paid $10/barrel as royalties. Lets suppose half is profit, so the US Government gets $1.33 per barrel as tax. Now, since a 10% return on the $1-trillion is reasonable, US companies would have to produce 206-million-barrels/day in Iraq to give a half-way decent return. That is ten times as much oil as the US consumes, and more than twice the total oil daily produced in the world. US companies would have to produce 75-billion barrels of oil a year in Iraq.

o Lets assume by some miracle such production rates could actually be practical. Even if we say, okay, most of Iraq is unexplored and it may have 300-billion-barrels of oil, in four years there will be no oil left in the country. Iraq wont care, because it'll have a a few trillion dollars in the bank and can live off the interest. But the US Government will get nothing after four years.

o So far we haven't talked about the interest the US has foregone on its investment in the last seven years.

o Enough - we're sure readers get the point and there is no need for the Editor to get carried away more than he is already carried away. It doesn't seem fair that this State Department feller gets to pay his bills while mouthing inanities, while the Editor plods along looking for a job.

0230 GMT August 18, 2010

o Great Leader may hand over rule next month That's the speculation since the first party congress in 30-years has been called for September. The successor is likely to be the GL Mini Me, his youngest son who is about 27.

o Meanwhile, ROK president calls for starting a fund that will pay for reunification. At least someone is thinking ahead to the inevitable.

o Also meanwhile, defensenews. com has a picture of DPRK's new MBT, believed based on the T-62. The tank is named "Pokpung-Ho". We are not making this up. In Korean it means "storm". We are certain the tank will get through the US 2nd Division in ROK. The troops will be shouting "Pokpung-Ho!" and laughing so loudly the tanks will roll over the division. Very devious strategy.

o http://defensenews.com/story.php?i=4748528&c=ASI&s=TOP

o Pakistan flooding now affects 20-million, or one person in nine. Compare to: US with 35-million flood-affected. Thousands of Pakistani towns and villages have disappeared: swept away or submerged.

o Because the international community is not stepping up, the World Bank is reprogramming $900-million earmarked for Pakistani development projects to flood relief. Glad that World Bank is showing sense for a change.

o Our least favorite dictator gets a new lease on life Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe was allowed a one-time exemption to sell diamonds. No one is sure at this point how much was the revenue, might be between $100-million and $1.5-billion. Either way, Mr. Mugabe has gotten his grubby paws on a bunch of foreign exchange.

o Zimbabwe was locked out of the Kimberly process because among other things workers toiling to recover diamonds were being treated like slaves: children being forced to work 11-hours a day, women raped, death threats, all the gentlemanly behavior one associates with Mr. Scumbag.

o So why was an exception granted? In the "hope" that things would improve for labor. Mr. Mugabe's government "promised" labor abuses would be ended.

o http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/diamond-auction-brings-zimbabwe-16312bn-pay-day-2050135.html

0230 GMT August 17, 2010

o Longwarjournal challenges US government on AQ numbers in Afghanistan Some time back the CIA director said there were only 50-100 Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. Longwarjournal says that using official news releases it seems AQ is operating in 48 districts in 17 of Afghanistan's 34 provinces. For US readers, province=state and district=county.

o Not only is AQ or affiliates providing training and money for Afghanistan Taliban, in at least two cases, including one a few days back, Coalition has killed "dual-hat" commanders. These gentleman work for both the Taliban and AQ.

o This melding of AQ and Taliban is not something anyone needs, least of all the US. Worse, if the US government is spinning facts so blatantly, whatever credibility it has will be destroyed.

o Iran official heading UAV program assassinated, says Debka Reader Vikhir Akula sends a Debka story saying the engineer heading Iran's UAV program was killed by a massive blast that brought down his house in an exclusive residential district of Ahwaz. The Iran government said it was an exploding cooking gas cylinder - these do tend to occasionally blow up in less safety-conscious cultures. But Debka says three bombs were planted in the corners of the building by someone who managed to get access to his protected house.

o http://www.debka.com/article/8971/

o Here is a link to a thoughtful Atlantic article also forwarded by Vikhr. The article says decision time on Iran's N-program is fast approaching, and it analyses the principal actors, courses of action, and outcomes.

o Pakistan calamity: Indian Government does something sensible India has offered even more aid than the $5-million initial sum to Pakistan. Moreover, it has said it is willing to channel the aid through the UN, and even offered India as a staging base for the UN.

o This puts the ball squarely in Pakistan's court. Pakistan has yet to reply to the original offer, which we thought was insultingly small.

o We were going to finish up our rant on Kashmir by explaining that everytime some Kashmiri factions are unsatisfied with the state government, instead of political action they resort to violence, blame India, and scream "independence." Here is an article which explains better, though it is a lot more sympathetic to the Kashmiri agitators than we are. We dispute they are as wronged and as innocent as the writer makes out, but the article will explain a great deal of what the current trouble is about.

o http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/opinion/edit-page/Multiple-Mutinies-Now/articleshow/6316002.cms

0230 GMT August 16, 2010

No news today. Here's three articles of interest

o AQ tells new BFF Shabaab to keep a low profile http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/08/al_qaeda_advises_sha.php

o America's Secret GWOT http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/15/world/15shadowwar.html?ref=world

o You're never more than 20 moves away from solving Rubik's Cube http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/official-just-20-moves-needed-to-solve-a-rubiks-cube-2050124.html0230

GMT August 15, 2010

o Civilian losses in Afghanistan: Lose-Lose for Coalition It was another rare day for the Washington Post, because it had an article on the GWOT that actually made sense. On Saturday the Post explained that whether the civilian casualties are caused by the Coalition or by the Taliban, Afghanis blame the Coalition in both cases.

o The reasoning is two fold. First, the Afghanis blame the Coalition for drawing Taliban fire on them and making them the victims of Taliban retaliation for Coalition activity. Does this make any sense, to blame the person who is helping you, in effect saying: "you said you were here to protect us but instead we are getting killed by the enemy"? It makes no sense at all. But that is the reality.

o Second, as a US officer told WashPo, the Coalition operates in uniform and is always identifiable. The Taliban are not. The come, they kill, they vanish. So obviously the side in the uniform gets the flak.

o We can add a third reason: Just how do you go and complain to the Taliban about their murder of civilians? We suppose you could try, but where's the assurance the Taliban will listen and make restitution? You worry more likely you too will be murdered. But you can always come and complain to the Coalition. They will give you medical attention if you have been injured, regardless by whom, and if the Coalition has made a mistake, it pays compensation.

o Needless to say, now the Taliban know the game they take full advantage of the civilians. They are not just hiding among them, they take civilians hostage to protect themselves from attack. No guesses as to who gets blamed when the hostages are killed accidentally by the Coalition.

o So, what does this add up to in terms of CI? The same old thing we've been saying for ages. This hearts and minds business does not work. The most recent example is Sri Lanka. The nation decided to go after the LTTE regardless of how many civilians died - and it looks as if several thousand may have been killed. West is muttering "war crime". The reality is, the LTTE are defeated. Sri Lanka, after 30 years of war, is returning to peace.

o Machiavelli advised his Prince: "If you have to do something bad, do it all at once and get it over with". (Conversely, if you have to do something good, don't do it all at once - dribble it out.) Sound feller, ol' Machi.

o Of course, in Afghanistan the US ignored one of the great fundamental principles of war: Define your objective. US kept changing its objective, and is still confused as to what to do. So victory by any definition is impossible. In situations like that, we are sure if the Italian Schemer had been around, he would have banged his head against the wall and said: "Just get up and leave, before you do, kindly pay this invoice for my advice."

o India offers $5-million aid to Pakistan: Mingy offer, Mingy response. Come on, people: $5-million? India is close to becoming a two trillion dollar economy. Ethnically, the Pakistanis are the same as Indians. It's politics divided them.

o But trust the Pakistanis to equally sink to the occasion: Pakistan says it is "considering" the offer.

o Editor doesn't need to read the Indian newspapers and blogs to tell exactly what the Indians are saying: (a) Don't we have enough poor people of our own who need help?; and (b) @#$%^& those &^%$#@ ungrateful Pakistanis.

o Actually, we do have an answer to the first question. In India its never been about the money when it comes to failing to help the poor. Its never been important enough for the government to help the poor, and for that the people of India must take the blame along with the Government. You can provide everyone in India with clean drinking water, basic health services, education, and food security. It's just we Indians are not bothered. And we do have an answer to the second point. What Would Ashoka Do? What would this most moral of Indian kings do if his offer to help a suffering neighbor was rudely rejected? Think about it.

o India Shining - Not The phrase "India Shining" is meant to epitomize the new India: economically, culturally, and historically vibrant.

o Well, according to the Times of India, there's a hefty bit of tarnish on the shine. In 1965, a thirty year old farmer saw two army boats collide in a river. He led a rescue effort, getting 68 men to shore, and saving 20 others from drowning. He even recovered some of the weapons the soldiers were carrying.

o So, the government gave him a peacetime gallantry award, and a pension that today amounts to $30/month, or a dollar a day. The man is now 75. He hasn't received his pension in four months, and no one seems to know why. He and his wife are not doing well in the absence of the money.

o OK, so you thing we're going to smack the Government upside the head because the pension stopped? Not really. Mistakes happen. For example, the man may have not filed his "I am not dead yet" certificate that all pensioners are required to file annually.

o No. The people we want smack upside the head with an 18" iron skillet are the district authorities. "District authorities said they would take up the matter with the Centre and officials would visit (his) residence soon." Why don't the baboon bureaucrats get off their fat tushis and do something instead of making vague promises.

o At the same time, we have to note that people in India and Indians abroad are changing. Thirteen of 23 letters to the editor ask how they can help this man. Good for them.

o http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Braveheart-of-1965-Indo-Pak-war-now-lives-in-misery/articleshow/6312376.cms#ixzz0wdD5Yyvk By the way, in true Indian journalistic tradition, the headline is misleading: the incident happened during the 1965 War, but took place a thousand miles from the front and had nothing to do with the war. The article of course says the war was over on the day of the incident, which it was not. It all makes perfect sense if you are Indian.

o Indian Air Force to modernize base infrastructure (The delay in reporting this story is because Editor passed out in shock that the Indian military is actually doing something sensible, and it took time to revive the Editor.)

o Times of India reports that all four Indian military services (including the Coast Guard) are to modernize their airfields in two phases. This includes the Air Force's 51 operating bases, and 9 Air Force Advanced Landing Grounds used to support the Army on the China border. All nine were shut down and only recently reopened in view of the increasing China threat. We saw photographs of one of the ALGs, at Daulet Beg Oldi (or DBO if you want to be cool and act like you're in the know) near the Karakoram Pass in Ladakh. This ALG is is at a height of 16,200-feet, just under 5000-meters, and it is the highest airfield in the world. It was a very neat job and runway lights had been installed for the first time. The surface was not yet paved.

o The Times of India says: "The upgrade includes resurfacing, expansion and lighting of runways for night operations as well as installation of new tactical navigational (TACAN), instrument landing (Cat-2 ILS), air traffic management and air-to-ground radio communication (RCAG) systems."

o Helicopter pads on the China border are also to be improved. All this will make a huge, huge difference in India's ability to quickly reinforce positions in the north.

0230 GMT August 14, 2010

o Pakistan wins one Dawn of Karachi said US is no longer pressing Pakistan to open operations in North Waziristan. One official; said pressure was "counterproductive". Another said Pakistan needed time to "consolidate" previous gains. At least one of the officials was being honest.

o We've said several times Pakistan has told the US enough is enough and it is not going to do more against the Taliban. Seems US is publically acknowledging that reality.

o As far as we are concerned, Pakistan's successful stonewalling should be taken as another sign we're not going to win in Afghanistan and we should adjust our plans accordingly.

o Meanwhile, we at least are going to congratulate the Pakistanis. If America is stupid enough to be taken for a ride, no sense blaming Pakistan, is it?

o Meanwhile, re. the floods In just one area, Jacobabad, 1.5-million people are stranded by rising waters and 500,000 - the city's population - have been told to leave.

o Even the US could not handle a disaster of this magnitude. And remember, this is just one little area that is affected.

o Russia aims to deter Israel by placing S-300 SAM's in Georgia's breakaway regions says Debka. The website has been insisting for some time that Israel will attack Iran using Georgian bases. And the Russians do appear to have shifted at least one S-300 battery to the region.

o First, however, Russia has bases in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. It seems reasonable it would want SAM protection for the bases. Debka argues the Russians don't need S-300s to deter attacks on their bases. Attacks from Georgia, yes, they don't need S-300s. But they do need them for attacks from NATO. Further, S-300 is their standard modern SAM. Why should they put obsolete junk into the region? Second, to go from Georgia to northwestern Iran requires overflying Armenia and Azerbaijan. When Israel can overfly Syria - SyAF cant do much about it - why would Israel depend on three separate countries to cooperate in a preemptive attack.

o http://debka.com/article/8968/

o Former Sri Lanka army chief found guilty by court-martial of engaging in politics while in service, says BBC. General Sarath Fonseka and the Sri Lanka President were Best Friends Forever after the war against the LTTE rebels. But General Fonseka felt he was being increasingly sidelined and decided to go into politics. The Government says he engaged in politics before resigning. The General denies that.

o Oh baby, can this really be the end warbled the great poet/songwriter Bob Dylan. We think this really is the end: the Easy India Company has been purchased by an Indian. The EIC was, of course, the colonizer of India. It had its own armies to protect its commercial interests. After the Indian Mutiny of 1857 - or as the Indians call the First War of Independence - London took over direct rule of India and the EIC was dissolved. One hundred and thirty five year later arrives this Indian and revives the company, which apparently had survived as a tiny trading enterprize.

o Is this Indian a Tata or a Mittal, a new billionaire corporate baron of which India has so many? Nope. He is a shopkeeper.

o One the one hand: England, we feel for you. On the other hand: you deserve this, England. It's the ultimate insult. (PS: not that the English are the least bit bothered. They are probably going: "Boooooorrrrring!")

o http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-10971109

0230 GMT August 13, 2010

o Top Iraqi officers says US withdrawal premature: BBC The 3-star general says Iraq security forces may require another 10-years to become ready.

o Au contraire, Pierre. One reason the Iraqis calmed down is the US announced a firm withdrawal data to which it is adhering. For the last two years US troops have increasingly been leaving the Iraqis alone, and the Iraqis have reciprocated. Iraq is an exceptionally nationalistic place. If the US said it was going to hang around till the Iraqis are ready, at some indefinite point in the future, attacks on US forces would resume.

o US has achieved all its goals in Iraq. Stability in that country cannot be defined in terms of developed countries. Look at India: if you judged it on developed nation standards, it is highly unstable. But actually India chugs along just fine. Elections are held regularly, the government governs, there is no political unrest over 90% of the country in terms of population, the economy is blasting away, and by 2025 India will have the world's third largest GDP.

o India managed when the British left, and it managed better because Indians knew whatever happened to them, independence was better than servitude to foreigners. Same applies to Iraq.

o Sure there will be blood because the US presence has prevented the working out of many problems, such as the role of the Sunnis and Kurds in the new Iraq. But this has to be settled by the Iraqis themselves, not by outsiders.

o So: good job US, and to the Iraqis we say: "It's been real."

o Independent Afghan operation goes awry says New York Times. A 300-man battalion from 201st Corps (Kabul), likely the best trained Afghan corps, went to root out Taliban from their positions in a village in Laghman province. The operation was not conducted with the Coalition, and ran into trouble apparently after detailed were betrayed to the Taliban. There are varying reports on casualties; US says they run about 10 killed and 20 wounded, others say more.

o Anyway, US and French troops had to go to the rescue, but the Red Cross says it could not recover bodies due to intense fighting.

o One Taliban boasted of taking three Afghan Army prisoners to his house and then executing them, so his house will be that of a hero. We did not know murdering POWs confers hero status on anyone. But that standard one supposes Hitler was the greatest hero of them all.

o http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/13/world/asia/13afghan.html?src=un&feedurl=http%3A%2F%2Fjson8.nytimes.com%2Fpages%2Fworld%2Fasia%2Findex.jsonp

o AQ running low on money? Associated Press says Al Qaeda had issued its third appeal in a year for money. AQ says its fighters in Afghanistan cannot operate for lack of resources.

o Wonder what's going on here.

o Next time you wanna complain about that speeding ticket you received, you might want to consider this: A Swedish motorist in Switzerland is facing a potential $1-million fine after being clocked at 290-kmph in a 120-kmph zone. The latter is 72-mph, so it's not exactly slow.

o In Switzerland (and in Sweden too, we believe) the richer you are, the heavier the fine. The previous world record is a Swiss driver who had to pay $290,000.

o Wonder if there's a chance the US will have such an equitable system some day.

0230 GMT August 12, 2010

· 3rd flood surge heading down the Indus Guddu and other barrages upstream are expected to get hit by a 1.05-million-cusec flow, and ten more districts (several districts make up a province) in the Punjab and Sindh are expected to get flooded.

· People have been speculating that the floods will give the Taliban time to reorganize. This type of feeble-minded thinking is typical, and we don't know where it is coming from.

· First, the Taliban were not disorganized to begin with. Second, being a Taliban does not give immunity from flood water - the Taliban will be suffering along with everyone else. Third, and this is more important, in the absence of the Government, it is the Taliban and other fundamentalist organizations that have been doing flood relief. The Government is not asleep at the switch, it is doing its best. But Pakistan is not a well-run country and in the face of this massive disaster the Government is unable to cope.

· You mustn't think that where the Government is absent, thousands of fundamentalists are running around doing relief work. Even they are very limited in what they can do. The point is, however, that when a Government truck or boat arrives to help, people curse the Government for not doing more. The Taliban may be doing a tenth of what the Government is, but every boat or truck they sent out is remembered with gratitude, because after all, it is not the Taliban's job to save the people, it is the Government's.

· So the Taliban will be strengthened - not because they can reorganize themselves, but because they are helping the people at a time of great need.

· The damage is so great that the Army is saying in Swat everything the Army has constructed has been washed away, as well as every bridge. Not that the people of Swat were being weaned away from the Taliban to begin with: as everywhere else, the Taliban and the Army coexist. In the Punjab alone, an estimated 5700-square-kilometers of land under crops has been submerged and the crops lost.

· Pakistan has complained that the entire world went to help Haiti; the floods are a far worse disaster - this is confirmed by the UN - but very little help is forthcoming for Pakistan.

· This is absolutely true. And the reason, we suspect, is that the whole world is fed up of Pakistan and its support for terrorism.

· In theory the world should be separating the issue of the Pakistani people from the sins of the Government and the Islamists. In reality, the world does not care to make these distinctions.

· India is the logical country to help Pakistan. India will not do anything. Can anyone blame India?

· Kashmiri political parties reject offer of autonomy within India The sole exception has been the state's ruling party, aligned with the central government. The rejectionists include those who think they can get more; and they include those who think the Indian Prime Minister has offered too much. No guesses needed that it is the Muslims wanting more, and the Hindus saying it is too much.

· The Prime Minister should not have made such an offer in the first place. The old agreements to give Kashmir autonomy within India have long since lost their relevance. New offers of autonomy must be approved by all India, and this requires a special national vote. And many people will say: "Sure thing, let's give Kashmir autonomy, and while we're at it, lets break India into 1000 states and give each state autonomy too."

· The Indian Prime Minister is a gentle person who believes reason can bridge all differences. Instead, his offer, though rejected, will inflame all sides further.

· http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/PMs-plan-for-JK-autonomy-has-few-takers/articleshow/6296269.cms

· What amazes us is that those who want independence for Kashmir don't realize that if Kashmir is declared independent, and the Indian Army leaves, it will be exactly 12-hours late that "independent" Kashmir becomes part of Pakistan, even though it is said only 2% of Kashmiris want union with Pakistan.

· India at least negotiates and tolerates a wide range of dissent. Pakistan in its part of Kashmir allows neither dissent nor seditious talk.

· Now, to be truthful, Editor who is an extreme hardliner and rejects the legitimacy of Pakistan in the first place, did many years suggest that India leave Muslim Kashmir, let the Pakistanis take over, and then wait for the Muslim Kashmiris to beg for intervention.

· His idea didn't get very far. Said one informed friend very succinctly, "If Muslims are unhappy in India, they have a home to which they can go. Its called Pakistan. And we will be very happy to "help" them leave."\

· Theatre of the Absurd Americans pride themselves on their sense of humor. Here is an example of how humorous they are.

· Reader Amitava Datta writes: (The underlined parts of the letter are URLs) "Any citizen, any foreign spy, any member of the Taliban, and any terrorist can go to the WikiLeaks website, and download detailed information about how the U.S. military waged war in Afghanistan from 2004 to 2009. Members of that same military, however, are now banned from looking at those internal military documents. “Doing so would introduce potentially classified information on unclassified networks,” according to one directive issued by the armed forces."

· He continues: "That cry you hear? It’s common sense, writhing in pain."

0230 GMT August 11, 2010

· Yellow star over Eastern Mediterranean Get used to it. The PLAN's destroyer Guangzhou and frigate Chaohu are on a visit to Greece at the end of their deployment for anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.

· Portugal gets 45% of electricity from renewable sources up from 17% five years ago, says New York Times. Portugal has no fossil fuel resources. Imports of oil and gas accounted for 50% of the trade deficit. So this shift is strategic in scope. The country's next goal is 60% of electricity from renewables.

· The kilowatt/hour cost is average for Europe but is expensive compared to the US, which has big reserves of cheap coal.

· http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/10/science/earth/10portugal.html?src=me&ref=general

· Afghan civil casualties up, deaths due to airstrikes down UN says in first six months of 2010, 1271 civilians were killed, 75% by the Taliban. Civilians killed die to NATO airstrikes fell 64%; 69 were killed. Losses in the northeast increased as the Taliban expand into this previously quiet region; losses in southern Afghanistan have increased due to stepped up NATO activity.

· US and Vietnamese Navies conduct joint exercises in the South China Sea Editor's mind is totally boggled. Can't even get himself to make a comment.

· Vietnam has ordered six Kilo-class submarines from Russia for $2.4-billion plus 10 Su-30s, in an effort to boost its military capability against China. Just a matter of time, one supposes, before surplus USN warships and new US fighters start arriving, one supposes.

· US equipment pullout from Iraq ahead of schedule says www.defencetalk.com 2.3-million pieces of equipment have to be shipped to the US, sent to Afghanistan, or given to Iraq. About a third of the inventory is gone already. 3-4000 trucks a day leave Iraq for Kuwait or UmmQasir.

· http://www.defencetalk.com/logistical-drawdown-in-iraq-proceeds-ahead-of-schedule-27994/

· Hugo going kissy-face with new Columbian president says BBC. Hugo has restored diplomatic relations with Columbia, and urged the FARC rebels to release prisoners as a goodwill gesture.

· Hugo is acting sane, for a change. Terribly sad. But Hugo being Hugo, he is bound to start a fighting with someone else very soon.

· http://www.defencetalk.com/logistical-drawdown-in-iraq-proceeds-ahead-of-schedule-27994/

· Your brain is wired like the Internet say two American researchers who used dyes to trace thoughts zipping around. This is in complete opposition to the belief that the brain is wired like a corporate organizational chart.

· We're a bit surprised that people think of the brain as a top-down/bottom-up performer. We always thought it was wired like the Internet - even before there was an internet.

· http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-10925841

0230 GMT August 10, 2010

· Letter on the ship M Star from reader Terry

· It looks like the damage was caused by an Omni-directional explosion, the squares with in the large squares is the ships skin being buckled between the ships framing. The picture looks to show the ship after it has had its cargo removed, so the water line when she was struck is well out of the water. As the buckling is less below the water line--do to the difference between the density of air/water, I would say the explosion was at or slightly above the water line, ruling out a marine mine. That and the wide spread surface damage rules out a torpedo or a missile. The damaged hull area would of been much smaller, with hull penetration. As the hull shows inward impact an internal explosion can also be ruled out.

· A small craft laden with non-shaped charged explosives causing this damage is plausible.

· Letter on Mexico drug violence from Rdickhaus About 1 month ago Texas Attorney General sent letter to President Obama asking for help defending against terrorism/lawlessness adjacent to our border near El Paso Texas. Response from white house is impossible for me to determine.

· El Paso government offices were hit by small arms fire, luckily no people were hit.

· This article shows latest developments at that Mexican border town.

· http://www.foxnews.com/world/2010/08/07/mexican-federal-police-protesting-corruption-detain-commander-violent-border/

· Things are not getting better.

· Editor's comment Life is always full of irony. Here we are trying to save the people or Iraq and Afghanistan, and right on our border our neighbor Mexico is a state of war. The war is already spreading south into the fragile democracies of Central America, where government, courts, and police are still weak. An article in the Washington Post said the other day that in one area on Honduras, the murder rate has reached 100 per 100,000.

· If America did not create demand, there would be no supply. We don't worry too much about statistics showing the bulk of firearms recovered from Mexican criminals originate in the US: the drug people have money and resources, the world is awash in guns. But things are been driven by the endless demand for cannabis and cocaine in the US.

· Worse, drug consumption in Mexico and Central America has taken firm root.

· Bye-bye British military? Reader Luxembourg sends a story from the blog Powerline http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2010/08/026938.php saying that Britain is getting ready for major cuts in defense. The RAF, for example, is to fall below 200 fighters, the lowest number since 1914. The Navy will lose two submarines and three amphibs. The Army will lose 7,000 personnel and a lot of its armor.

· Britain is very serious about cutting its deficit, and brutal cuts are being made in every imaginable area. Defense is not exempt.

· People worry about Britain's retreat from major power status. The sad reality is that Britain has not been a major power for decades. Having a couple of hundred nuclear warheads does not make one a major player. Britain today is hard pressed to deploy two brigades overseas. with the cuts, it will get worse.

· But the British are doing the right thing: military strength depends on economic strength. High deficits threaten the pound and British financial stability. No sense in having fancy armed forces when the country cannot afford them.

0230 GMT August 9, 2010

· Who hit the M Star? The Japanese owner of the tanker sailing in the Persian Gulf originally said there had been an explosion. AQ immediately claimed a suicide attack, and when the ship reached Fujairah, the story was traces of explosive had been found on the hull, which was not breached.

· Explosives residue (AFP): http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hGZALreKzcA9bbTbuItZBrnPWrEQ

· AQ claim (AFP): http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hGZALreKzcA9bbTbuItZBrnPWrEQ

· But here is the problem: take a look at the damage to the tanker (CNN photo): http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/meast/08/06/uae.tanker.explosion/index.html That's a perfect rectangle. Would an explosives laden boat have cause damage in that shape?

· Please note the tanker is damaged all the way to the top of the deck, so we've really got two rectangles: one with a great bit dent and the other with less of a dent.

· Please write in with your thoughts and knowledge.

· New Midcourse Defense Interceptor The URL has some news about the new Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) interceptor. Lockheed and Raytheon have decided to submit a competitive bid for the interceptor, which to now has been built by Boeing. The contract is expected to be awarded next spring.

· We've still been unable to figure out why purchases of the Boeing interceptor were halted and why a new bid is bring put out, or how the new design is different from the previous one.

· http://defensenews.com/story.php?i=4735941&c=AME&s=AIR

· Heavy rains continue in Pakistan Dawn of Karachi reports that the water flow down the Indus River at Kalabagh has jumped from 442,000 cusecs to 559,000, and because more rain is expected, another surge is headed down river, and is expected to hit 700,000 cusecs. A cubic foot of water per second equals 28-liters. or very roughly, just under 20,000-cubic-meters a second. Not being the Washington Post, we cant say how many "Pentagons" that equals, but the Mississippi's normal discharge is ~ 225,000-cusecs. So triple that and you'll get the idea how much water is going down the Indus.

· But flows were even higher August 6 at the Guddu Barrage north of Karachi: 962,000-cusecs, and with a new surge of water on the way, its difficult to say what will happen.

· We couldn't find out what is the normal flow of the Indus. Pakistani rivers are heavily dammed and water is siphoned off for irrigation at several points.

0230 GMT August 8, 2010

· Letter from Reader Sanjith Menon In my last post I had remarked on the ambassador Blackwill's idea of partitioning Afghanistan, into Pashtun and non Pashtun areas. Now there is Walter Russell Mead, of the Council of Foreign Relations who is advocating, the same. This guy is a Democrat, and there are many in the present administration, who to me seem to listen to him. So come June 2011, there is a good chance that if the surge does not work, then Plan B would be the partition of Afghanistan.

· Agha Amin reports that all future oil contracts with ISAF negotiated on terms, which clearly suggests any route as long as it is not through Pakistan. Being in the energy and logistics sector, he
should be in the know of such things.

· Divide and rule, is not an unknown phenomena to Americans.

· Editor's note Mr. Menon is attributing to the Americans much more foresight than they have shown to possess. We are unsure where these ideas of partitioning Afghanistan are coming from and what the US will gain. We suppose US is thinking of some kind of presence in the region so it can launch attacks against AQ and Taliban leadership, but to support and sustain a division of Afghanistan just for that limited purpose seems perverse.

· What will happen in June 2011 is that the US will start withdrawing from Afghanistan, but the pace will depend entirely on the political situation at home. Even if the worst case materializes, and the American public wants a full withdrawal, the public will tolerate assets needed for anti-AQ/Taliban attacks together with troops for force protection. You could easily see 20,000 troops remaining on a semi-permanent basis. For as long as the Americans want to stay, they will not not tolerate the fall of Kabul to the Taliban, and once you put the hearts and minds business into the dustbin, there is no practical way the Taliban can overrun Kabul in the face of American firepower.

· Afghanistan seems to be heading for defacto partition anyway, with or without the US presence, because as we have said, this time around India and Russia will not permit the Taliban to overrun the non-Pushtoon areas as happened in 1994-96 with the exception of 15% of the country held by the Northern Alliance, in turn supported by India and Russia.

· The difficulty we are having predicting what the US may or may not do is that the US itself is completely confused on what it is doing. At this stage the only unity of opinion is that the US should not be run out of Afghanistan so America can claim it was not defeated. As for the rest, there are many factions in the decision making elite - which includes the think tanks, and everyone has their own idea. It's a free country, anyone can express their thoughts - that includes Ambassador Blackwill and Mr. Mead.

· AQ claims suicide attack on Japanese tanker in the Persian Gulf The tanker suffered some minimal damage and chugged along on its voyage. It didn't even know it was rammed by a suicide boat: first it thought it had hit something. Explosive residue on the hull showed it was a bomb attack

· Nonetheless, when we hear news like this, we hold our head in our hands and groan loudly. Every time Washington gives a tantrara if trumpets that AQ is defeated because we have killed X number of leaders, AQ shows it is well and alive, How does it manage? Because its not an organization like any normal organization. It is like an HQ cell with all kinds of loose affiliates, the nature of whom is ever changing. Even decapitating the cell won't make any difference because it is not like OBL is sitting in a cave operating a command center with an S1, S2, S3 and so on. It is not like there are battalions and brigades and divisions being maneuvered over the battle space. You can kill OBL, and even the Americans admit it may disrupt things for a bit - assuming the old boy is still in some kind of charge - but its not going to stop AQ from regrouping.

· Anyway, there are days when we just want to say: you know what? Let the Americans figure it out. Why are we getting hassled. Churchill used to say that you can always rely on the Americans doing the right thing - after everything else has failed. We suspect this is still very much a national characteristic.

· By the way, some son of OBL is said to being trained to take over the succession.

· President Zardari of Pakistan decided he had to keep to his program of overseas visits - including a visit to his chateau in France - while 15-million of his citizens, which is one of 12, are drowning in the floods. He demanded to know what difference it made he was not at home, because there was a government led by a Prime Minister, there was a parliament, and so on, so why was he needed?

· We were feeling a bit of aggro when it dawned on us: "The man is right! Why is he needed? Why don't the Pakistanis tell him "There's no need to come, please visit your chateau indefinitely."" Everyone wins.

0230 GMT August 7, 2010

· China "shaken" by US offer of a civilian N-reactor says the Times of India, but unfortunately the article does not quote sources to back its assertion. We can understand China might be upset at this coziness between US and Vietnam, because the US does not generally go around helping people build N-reactors.

· At the same time, the US seems to have decided it has been cut out of the civilian N-reactor market for too long. US negotiation with India to segregate the Indian military program from the civilian one, and to open the civilian program to IAEA safeguards, was in part driven by a wish to do more business with India in this area.

· Hitachi-Westinghouse are to build 6 x 1000MW units in India. As far as we know, nothing has been settled yet on liability. US companies want the Indian Government to set up a liability fund into which they will pay. The Russians are going like gangbusters in India - it would be interesting to know what the liability deal is with them. Areva of France is setting up six reactors, but it is the Russians who seem to be way in the forefront, possibly because of their decades of cooperation with India in the field. The Russians have 2 x 1000MW units slated for completed in 2011 and 2012, and will build ten more reactors. This is in addition to four for which agreements have been concluded earlier.

· But back to Vietnam. The country needs to add 16-Gigawatts to its generating capacity because of the shift of industries from South China to Vietnam because of cheap labor availability. Seems to us the main beneficiaries of the proposed N-plant will be the Chinese.

· http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/China-shaken-by-US-move-to-sign-nuclear-deal-with-Vietnam/articleshow/6266844.cms

· Ms. Benazir Bhutto's daughter to enter politics The late Ms. Bhutto and her husband, currently President of Pakistan, had two daughters and a son. Now the elder daughter, 21-years of age, is said to be on the verge of entering politics. The son was made the head of the Pakistan People's Party when his mother was murdered, but he has clearly said he wants to study further and not participate in politics.

· On the one hand, we can understand the daughter of a woman who was murdered on her return to stand for elections in Pakistan - and she would have won had she not died - wants to fulfill her mother's legacy. On the other hand, we cannot imagine her father is happy about it. The grandfather, a prime minister, Mr. ZA Bhutto was hanged by coup-leader and Pakistani President General Z. Zia.

· The parallels with India are obvious. Mrs. Indira Gandhi was murdered, and so was her son after he left office. The son's wife, Sonia, runs the Congress Party and a fourth generation is being groomed for power - the young man, unlike his very ambitious uncle Sanjay and not so ambitious dad Rajiv, seems perfectly happy to do party work and is in no hurry to take power.

· The first generation was, of course, India's first Prime Minister Pandit Nehru. Sanjay died in the air crash of a high-performance acrobatic aircraft he had been gifted. In fact, Editor was cycling (as in bi-cycling) into town quite close to the airport Sanjay was using and saw a plane making loops. The pullouts seemed below the tree line and Editor wondered who was cutting things so close. By the time Editor rolled into town the news of the crash was all over the place.

0230 GMT August 6, 2010

Green Jobs and the Decline of America

(Yes, there really is a correlation)

· Goodbye Green Energy Jobs A few weeks ago we said, on the basis of research, that the overvalued Yuan is not the problem for America. The Yuan may be overvalued somewhere between 8 and 40%. But our research showed that even a 400% revaluation of the Yen over the last 35+ years hasn't converted our trade imbalance with Japan to a surplus.

· The secret of China's beating up the US on trade has to do with That China has an industrial/trade policy; whereas we, greater believer in the "free market" have no such policy because that requires government action. And we all know the Government cannot make as good economic decisions as the "free market."

· That may so in theory, but when one side has the Government backing it, and the other side is relying on these "free markets", which have become as mythical as unicorns and virgins, then the side with the policy is going to whack the bejesus out of the one that doesn't.

· Here's another example. Green Energy jobs. Remember, Green Energy is supposed to be part of the combination of great American inventiveness that supposedly no one else can match that will lead us to more jobs.

· Sorry about that, but those Green Jobs are toast. In 2009, the Chinese invested $35-billion in green energy, all except a tiny percentage funded by the Government. The US funded about $18-billion, of which about $3 billion was private capital. (Business Week, August 2-8, America Sits out the race, p.6-7).

· Bad as that is, there's more to the figures. First, China's GDP is a third of the US's, so proportionately the Chinese investment is far greater than the US's, not the 2:1 if you take the raw figures.

· It's time for Americans to stop living in a world of fairy tales Recently there was a huge argument about China overtaking America in per capita GDP. But from a geo-strategical viewpoint, only the total GDP counts. And China is on track to equal the US in 2025, just 15-years from now. (China growth at 10%, US at 2.5%, giving both countries a GDP of $21-trillion. Okay, perhaps Chinese growth will slip - it has to at some point. But that point is far away because China is still a country with a vast surplus population, a low GDP per capita, and the highest savings rate in the world.

· China with a GDP equal to the US This past few days, China has insisted that the East China Sea - and by the same reasoning the North and South China Seas - are as important to it as are Taiwan and Tibet. In other words. the China Seas are a core territorial interest.

· US has been having a lot of fun showing our contempt for that Chinese claim by ramming a carrier battle group sent to exercise with ROK down China's throat. The self-congratulatory crowing emanating from Washington would disturb the sleep of the real crows, it is so loud and insistent.

· Fair enough. In the year of Our Lord 2010, despite all China's boasts about anti-carrier missiles and Flankers and quiet submarines, four or five carrier battle groups would set the PLAN back 20-years if it came to a fight. Crowing justified.

· But let's fast forward to 2025, when China, like the US, can afford to spend $800-billion on defense and not feel any pain, because that's just 4% of the GDP. What are we going to do then?

· What astonishes is the way Americans keep reassuring themselves: "oh, China and the US are so economically interdependent China would never start a fight with us."

· Of course the Chinese are not going to start a fight. They are not warmongers. But if America thinks China will back down from a fight because of money, then it is badly misguided. It is mirror-imaging, always a bad idea when calculating how an adversary will act/react. Money to the Chinese is just a route to the prestige of being the most powerful country on earth. Sure they have a cost curve and a prestige curve, and as long as the two don't intersect, the Chinese are not going to start a fight. But after that intersection point, forget it. They will still not fire the first shot. But they will not give way either.

· Supposing we fast forward - again - to 2025. The Chinese will tell us: "You are our brother, and brothers should not come to blows. We'll stay on our side of the pond, you stay on yours, let us show mutual respect, and let us continuing cooperating.

· But you don't have to be a genius to anticipate how the Chinese will define their side of the pond. Their pond will include the Indian Ocean, the Persian Gulf, and the Pacific west of Guam. In 2050, their side of the point will mean the Pacific west of Hawaii. And in 2075, their side of the pond will mean west of the 12-nautical mile limit off San Francisco.

· Impossible? Well, let's look back. If in 1885 some prophet had said: in 65 years America will rule the World Ocean, people would laughed and laughed. But in 1950 the US did rule the World Ocean.

· Think about it people. It is just 35 years ago the China Seas were an American lake. As much as the Great Lakes. For ten years America had kept five carrier battle groups in the China Seas (three up and two rotating between the front and Japan/Philippines). The carriers - and any number of tactical fighter wings and scores of B-52 - were attacking everything in Indochina 80-km south of the Chinese border.

· Anyone remember those days? Anyone remember what the Chinese could do about it?

· Now run the exercise for 2025, when China can spend as much as the US on defense. Good luck.

· From Reader Duncan McLean Regarding news of the Pakistan Army and flood reliefThere are snippets (i.e. few hard facts) that show the Pakistan Army is doing flood relief work. A quick search turned up (Duncan sent us nine URLs; we give the first five::

· http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2010%5C08%5C04%5Cstory_4-8-2010_pg7_20

· http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-10830551

· http://health.yahoo.net/news/s/ap/as_pakistan_floods (photo)

· http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/aug/05/pakistan-flood-spreads-punjab-sindh

· http://www.pakistaninewspapers.info/archive/06/4-battalions-of-pak-army-put-on-alert-for-relief-operation-in-coastal-areas-spokesman/

0230 GMT August 5, 2010

· Reader Luxembourg sends a link to the Powerline blog of August 4, which has a US Congressperson asking General Petreaus what plans he had for using alternate energy like hydel dams and solar power in Afghanistan. http://powerlineblog.com

· Our first response was to ask a rhetorical question of the of the good Congressperson: what plans does Congress have for funding bunny slippers, binkies, and pink blankies for the Taliban? It has long been Orbat.com's contention that your typical Taliban was too frequently smacked as a child by his mother, because he was just so ugly she couldn't stand him. With the above items, lots of hot cocoa, and many cuddles - Congresspeople can do this last part, please leave us out of it - it should be possible to end the insurgency in a few days.

· But then it occurred to us: Here the Republic is going down the tubes, and this Congressperson is the perfect example of how we have reached this sad state. There's a war going on, you may agree with the US response or you may not, but it should be evident even to a Congressperson that General Petraeus is as likely to be working on Binkies for the Taliban as he is on solar-powered street lights for Afghan villages. That it is not evident to a Congressperson shows what a clueless lot we have elected. So how can we expect Congress to reverse the decline of the United states?

· We read the other day Congress's approval rate is 12%. That would make it a little less popular than the noble American game of Dwarf Tossing. Actually, come to think of it, we could use Congresspersons as substitutes for the dwarves. Surely it would be an act of kindness? (To the Congresspersons, we mean, it would bring some purpose to their sad, pointless lives.)

· Oh yes, apparently this Congressperson told the General that the US Air Force is the greatest user of energy on the planet. Well, this is actually true. The public does not realize the US Air Force has to use a lot of energy to shoot down the UFOs which bring US Congresspersons from alien planets to America. Alas, there are so many UFOs the USAF cannot get them all.

· Reader Joseph Caviliere ask why do we not hear of the Pakistan Army helping the flood-hot masses? Truthfully, we don't know. We skim through Dawn of Karachi every day, and there doesn't seem to much about the Army and flood relief. Readers, any information on this?

· Meanwhile, two-month old news we just saw: The Taliban are back in Buner District in full force. We're wondering if they ever left after the Pakistan security forces claimed to have cleaned them out last year? http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/pakistan/nwfp/militants-recruit-followers-extend-patrols-in-buner--szh

· Commandant Pakistan Frontier Constabulary killed in a suicide attack, says Dawn. A Pakistan Taliban group claimed responsbility. He is the third two-star police officer (equivalent to major general) to die in the North West Frontier Province. The Frontier Constabulary are different from the paramilitary Frontier Corps. The Constabulary are the regular police. Because till recently the area was under tribal law, the police were very few and far between - law and order was the a tribal responsibility. The Constabulary has been expanded, but it is very difficult for plain police to fight insurgents.

· Lebanese - Israeli Army clash This happened on Monday, and though two Lebanese soldiers and a journalist were killed, we did not mention it because we thought it was a fairly routine incident. However, it turns out a Lebanese Army sniper killed an Israeli Lieutenant Colonel, while an RPG fired against an Israeli tank seriously wounded a captain.

· The incident began when Israeli soldiers were clearing brush on their side of the Lebanon border - the UN has confirmed the Israelis were on their own side. Lebanese troops fired not at the soldiers clearing brush, but at an observation post well inside Israel. The Israelis retaliated with tank and artillery fire. The Israelis are saying the incident was the initiative of a Lebanese Army company commander and was not authorized by higher-ups.

· http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/idf-believes-single-lebanese-officer-behind-border-shooting-1.305828

0230 GMT August 4, 2010

· You always have to be very careful about numbers and here is an example why. Researching for a paper due at college, Editor happened to come across a 2009 China News report that India was sending 60,000 troops to Arunachal. Naturally we had to drop what we should have been doing to read this intriguing article.

· The article said two divisions each with 25-30,000 soldiers were being sent. It then took the upper limit and made it 60,000.

· Well, one supposes Chinese correspondents are as sloppy as Indian ones, because - as reported extensively in the Indian press last year, Army was raising two divisions, or 25-30,000 soldiers total.

· Now we need to pause. anyone remember 8 Mountain Division? It was raised in 1962 even as the disastrous war was underway, from elements of HQ Nagaland (thanks to Mandeep for the information) and kept as an Eastern Command reserve, even though it almost always remained on CI duty. after near 30 years in Eastern, the division left the theatre two decades ago for Kashmir and never returned. While on CI duty, the division was pulled out and sent to fight Pakistani infiltrators in the Matayan-Dras sectors. The when HQ XIV Corps was raised, it took over 8 Division.

· So if you look at the totality of Indian forces in Eastern Command, after a period of near five decades India has added one division as it sole response to the rapid modernization of the PLA.

· IS this news? Only to the extent it shows how long it takes India to respond to threats. From China's side any well-educated journo would have gone "gosh, the Indians sure took their time about boosting their defenses.

· But then it wouldn't have made a story to titillate China News readers, would it?

· Talking about numbers, we always have the stalwart Washington Post handy when we feel in the mood to make fun of someone. Lately the Post has been saying that the amount of oil leaked at BP's rogue Macondo well suffices to fill the Pentagon to a depth of 10-feet.

· Of course all of us use the Pentagon as a handy unit of volume. So when we want to discuss the amount of beer drunk on Super Bowl day, we say "the beer drunk would fill the Pentagon" and everyone instantly knows what we're talking about. Obviously only a complete moron would go: "Huh?"

· Yesterday the WashPo said that the amount of water in the Gulf of Mexico would fill 880-million Pentagons.

· Of course we all can understand that.

· Here's another easy comparison for our reader. "The number of functioning brain cells a WashPo correspondent possesses would fill a vacuum of infinite size."

· Can you beat this for chutzpa? President Zardari of Pakistan told Le Monde that "The international community, to which Pakistan belongs, is losing the war against the Taliban. This is above all because we have lost the battle to win hearts and minds."

· Pakistan, of course, has nothing to do with the Coalition losing the war. Nothing at all. No one here except us Talib meeces, la-la-la I cant hear you!

· Here's one reason armies use so many young people It's because having lived so short a time they're too young to fear death.

· Two families went wading in a river in Louisiana, in an area where swimming is banned. One youngster got into trouble in the water. None of the adults could swim and had to stand by helplessly. Immediately, six teenagers went after the drowning teenager.

· When it was all over, six of the youngsters, three siblings from each of the two families, including the one in trouble, were dead.

· The sole survivor was rescued by a swimmer, young man of 22 who hearing the cries jumped in and managed to grab one child. All the way back the boy kept begging his rescuer to save the others. Another rescuer jumped in and grabbed on child, but couldn't hold him.

· The six were age 13-18. The youngest was a girl.

· You see, none of them could swim either.

· http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5inXN1CXTOhU-0FnIPIWglpSm2B6wD9HCAK9G0

0230 GMT August 3, 2010

· Current US goals in Afghanistan This is from Dawn of Karachi. "WASHINGTON: President Barack Obama said on Monday that the US had a ‘fairly modest goal’ in the Pak-Afghan region and hoped to achieve this objective with ‘enough cooperation’ from Pakistan.

· “Nobody thinks that Afghanistan is gonna be a model Jeffersonian democracy,” Mr Obama said. “What we’re looking to do is difficult, very difficult, but it’s a fairly modest goal, which is, don’t allow terrorists to operate from this region; don’t allow them to create big training camps and to plan attacks against the US homeland with impunity.”

· This modest goal, he added, could be accomplished. “We can stabilise Afghanistan sufficiently and we can get enough cooperation from Pakistan that we are not magnifying the threat against the homeland.”

· Kindly note the "enough cooperation" from Pakistan. This is what we meant the other day when we said US has accepted that it cannot get Pakistan to fight the Taliban.

· Now, the question arises: is it really a modest goal to deny terrorists the ability to operate from Afghanistan and Pakistan? If it so modest, why haven't we gotten anywhere in the last 9 years? And what is our modest plan to stop AQ from gaining space in Yemen and Somalia?

· The thing is, when the US went into Afghanistan, it really did have a modest plan: find and kill OBL. But once he got away, we kept redefining the mission up, until the mission became a western-democratic Afghanistan and no space in Afghanistan for OB. So he went to Pakistan, and while we finally seem to have realized well, maybe you cant have a Jeffersonian democracy in Afghanistan, at least not yet, we seem comfortable with spending $100-billion/year and deploying 100,000 men to stop him from returning to Afghanistan. From a mission that was possible, we've made it into a mission impossible, particularly since we have no plans to invade and occupy Pakistan's tribal belt.

· So what's the saying about insanity? "Its doing the same thing again and again, and expecting different results."

· http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/front-page/19-obama-hopeful-of-enough-cooperation-from-pakistan-380-hh-03

· Pakistan's 2010 summer Plan for the Kashmir Valley is succeeding: another 8 people have died in police action taken in response to large mobs of stone-throwing youth. India has intercepts of terror group leaders saying they need more "martyrs", and golly, they have them. Times of India says 273 police have been injured by rock throwers, many seriously. We are told the Government of India sniffs a "conspiracy".

· Well done, Government of India. You knew what the terrorists game plan for the Valley was, it has been unfolding in front of you, week by week, and your nose has suddenly sniffed a conspiracy. Not be rude, but if you bothered to pull your nose out of another part of your antinomy where it seems to have been permanently parked since 1947, maybe you could have responded intelligently.

· To be fair to the police, they have been using non-lethal weapons where possible. But as the Israelis learned years ago, a tear gas canister hitting you in the head or a rubber bullet fired into your face at close range can be as lethal as a bullet.

· Now the police are going to try pepper guns. Good luck, everyone. If you have seen an Indian mob in full cry, believe us, you don't want a pepper gun. You want a medium machine gun.

· To us the Indian Government's position on Kashmir to begin with is very peculiar. The Government says Kashmir is part of India. But in fact, the Government constitutionally accepts that Kashmir is not part of India. It has a special status. So, for example, non Kashmiri citizens of India cannot buy land in Kashmir. A Kashmiri woman who marries an "outsider" loses her rights to property in Kashmir.

· when you keep telling the Kashmiris every single day that they are "special", can you blame them for thinking they are "special"?

· Why, for example, does the Government of India permit Kashmiris not to just speak of secession, but to plot and execute secession while sitting in India, and to add insult to injury, the government has given the secessionists legitimate status by negotiating with them for decades? Heck, the Government of India even takes responsibility for the safety of these people.

· And don't non-Sunnis in Kashmir have rights too? We are talking about the Hindus, the Sikhs, the Shias, and the Buddhists. The west goes all semi-orgasmic about "Kashmir" and the struggle for independence in "Kashmir", but there are a lot of other people who have lived in Kashmir as long, or even longer, that the Sunni Kashmiris. They don't want independence.

· India is possibly the only state in the world that just stood by when a minority, the Hindus, was ethnically cleansed from Kashmir, and no one was arrested or punished. Far from being punished, the criminals were and are being rewarded by being allowed to participate in electoral politics and enjoy the benefits of federal spending in Kashmir - which we are told is well upwards of 10 times per capita what the rest of India gets.

· The other day we suggested that just to clarify the debate, the Government of India split Kashmir into ethnic states so that the rights of the minorities can be respected. This would mean at the minimum a separate Jammu State, and a separate Ladakh state.

· Back came an email from a close friend. Cannot be done, he informed us. According to the Constitution, Kashmir cannot be divided. More exceptionalism.

· It is long since time that Kashmir was made just another ordinary part of India with no more or no less rights than anyone else.

· Till that time, lets not blame the Kashmiris for taking every advantage they can of India.

0230 GMT August 2, 2010

· Obama and ABM We're not quite sure why we have to read in the Washington Post than in effect President Obama is actually expanding US's ABM shield, not reducing it, as we have been reading for the last several months. For example, the long-range SM-3 interceptor will see its deployment double, to 400+. US is working on putting up a minimum shield first against Iran - it has a minimum shield against DPRK. The Mideast-European shield will be gradually extended until it covers all US allies in the two regions.

· Now, we knew the US dropped deployment of the very long range interceptor that it has deployed in Alaska/California, cutting back to 28 missile instead of the minimum 44 that was the original plan because something else is in the works. (Don't ask us: we have no clue what the replacement is, all we know is there is a replacement coming.)

· But we didn't know that the reason for dropping the deployment of 10 interceptors in Poland is because the Iranian threat has grown to the point ten interceptors would have been as useless as none. Quite likely we are not reading the right press, because we know the US said that the European shield as planned would be pointless, but it was never explained why. There was only muttering about something more effective being needed.

· Now that mystery is solved: Iran is expected to salvo its missiles against Israel/Europe. So the combination of 50 SM-3s in two European missile fields, plus THAAD, plus Patriot, plus Standard 2 on Navy ships in the Black Sea and Mediterranean, provides hundreds of defensive shots. And of course, when you have four separate sets of missiles, each with different ranges and different capabilities, you have a much better chance of shooting down multiple attackers.

· Re. THAAD The configuration of the a THAAD battery seems to frequently change, but last we looked, when fully deployed, there will be 9 launchers per battery, each launcher with 8 missiles, plus reloads. THAAD is a heavy-duty interceptor: its range is 1000-km. THAAD is already deployed, and building up, though sometimes its confusing because the US refers to 3 launchers as a battery, and three launchers is a firing troop, not a battery. A single battery will carry 144 missiles. The reloads can be positioned in 30-minutes. This is serious defensive power.

· So folks, whatever one may thing of Mr. Obama, at Orbat.com at least, we can no longer criticize the president for gutting the ABM program. Its growing, and its better tuned to the threat.

· Ooooh, these diplomats are so subtle The US Chairman JCS has subtly escalated pressure on Iran. Instead of saying "all options are on the table" as per usual, Admiral Mullen now says, yes, the US has a plan to attack Iran.

· Pardon us for our stupidity, but we are from Iowa, where the corn grows tall, the topsoil is 12-feet deep, and for entertainment on a Saturday night we fill up on beer and take a whiz at the local four-way crossing, just daring the Sheriff to catch us for urinating in public. So to us saying "all options are on the table" vs "we have a plan" is not an escalation. "All options" means - gosh, can you believe it - all options, and that means US has not just one attack plan, but several.

· So we doubt the Iranians are right at this moment saying "gosh, we'd better order the alert, the US has a plan to attack." If anything, they're probably wondering why the US keeps going yap, yap, yap, like your neighbors irritating poodle and not doing anything. The Iranians have been waiting for months if not years for an attack.

· By the way - the neighbors poodle? We don't hear it barking right now. Now, darn it, where is our 20-foot pet Anaconda gone? Come back boy, here boy, come home, chow time! (OK, in Iowa we are not cheap, we're frugal. And if the Anaconda is hungry, and something is yapping, well, we're not going to complain if the Anaconda comes home, gives a large burp, and settles in for a nap.)

· Burning Holy Books: a letter from reader Jaegertech Burning a Torah\Koran\Bible would be protected as speech by the First Amendment. Depending on how/where you chose to hold the bonfire, you could be arrested or just hassled by the police along with the possibility of attracting the attention of a violent mob.

· Editor's note The US can be quite a peculiar place. Editor does not doubt that if a Muslim burned a Bible and claimed free speech, he might well get away it. But 1st Amendment notwithstanding, the right to free speech is not absolute. Thus, no one can paint Swastikas on a Hebrew temple and claim free speech. That's counted as a hate crime and its off to the jail. Burning a Koran by a Christian will also result in his family making a visit to the bail bondsman.

· America is so worried about rights of the minority, that the rights of the Christian majority are of no concern. So: US goes to extraordinary lengths to ensure Iraqis and Afghans do not feel insulted about their religion. But its perfectly fine for the Iraqis and Afghans to persecute, jail, ethnically cleanse, and simply kill Christians. Ditto our "ally", Pakistan.

· From Mr. Ramganesh Iyer If I were the Wikileaks founder, first of all I would consider US and Taliban moral equals. So endangering an anti-Talibant informant life is no different from endangering a Taliban life. Indeed, for many of us in a neutral country like India (despite the hatred of Kashmiri terror groups), there is no difference between NATO and Taliban as far as we are concerned. Both are committing war crimes, and both are criminals.

· Also, I would fear for my life more from Taliban than from US Govt. Of course, neither has much regard for procedural niceties, and as I said, both are criminal. But the latter is slightly more worried about its public image than the former. If the US has been lying to its people, it deserves to be exposed – through fair or unfair means.

· Editor's question But what lies of the US have been exposed, and what war crimes have been committed? Civilians killed in the conduct of military operations become a war crime only if the intent was to kill the civilians or inadequate care was taken to prevent civilian casualties. There is no hard and fast standard as to how much care must be taken to avoid civilian casualties: it is a wholly subjective standard.

· Also, if an Indian soldier had leaked three-quarters of a million documents to Wikileaks, alleging that the Indians have committed war crimes in Nagaland, Mizoram, Manipur, and Kashmir and the world must know, what would patriotic Indians like Mr. Iyer say?

· BTW, the Taliban often do take care to warn civilians to leave an area before they commence operations. But where they are going wrong is that they are deliberately fighting from among civilians when it suits their tactical requirements.

· Editor fully understands where Mr. Iyer is coming from when he says many people - editor would say most in the 3rd World and many in the rest of the world - equate the Taliban with US forces. But just as Editor considers himself a patriotic Indian, he considers himself a patriotic American. He accepts the proposition US should not have invaded Afghanistan, but purely on practical, not on moral grounds. But he hopes Mr. Iyer can accept that the Editor does not believe the equation of American forces with the Taliban is justified.

0230 GMT August 1, 2010

Wikileaks matter gets serious

· First we learn Wikileaks, contrary to its assurances that it had scrubbed files containing names of Afghan informants, has put up many files with names. The Taliban have announced they are going through the files, and will kill any informant whose name they find.

· Second we learn from the cyber-journal Wired that Wikileaks may have put up a file containing 500,000 Iraq War reports and 260,000 State Department reports. The file is coded, and the speculation is that Wikileaks owner has done this as an insurance in case his site is taken down - and presumably also if anything happens to him.

· We need to state our position clearly. Having been young once, and working as he does with young people who sometimes do amazingly stupid things - as Editor did in his days - Editor has been fairly relaxed about Wikileaks actions on the Afghanistan files so far. Why? Because many people who have gone through the files - some of them, at least, as 95,000 files is a bit much to examine - says there is really nothing in the files.

· But if the files do contain names, then Wikileaks' owner is running the danger of being an accessory to murder, and that completely puts him outside the pale. You can be as anti-war as you want, or as much of a publicity hound as you want, but under no conditions do you have a right to endanger the lives of people who have worked against the Taliban. Forget the morality, what this young man has done is criminal.

· If indeed he has put up files as insurance, he is committing another criminal act. Its called blackmail against the United States.

· We still hope for this foolish youngster's sake that all this is a storm in a teacup. Because if this continues to escalate, he is in for years, possibly decades, of serious pain.

· He prides himself on his ability to hide and on the strength of his encryptions to evade people who might be looking for him. We don't think he understands what he is up against if the US Government issues warrants for his arrest. We can assure him that if the Feds come looking for him, every person who knows anything about him will give up that information so fast he won't know what hit him. And that includes his relatives, his girl friend, and his dog.

· As for the encryptions, we hope he realizes that generally if you encrypt data using 256, 512, or even 1024 bit codes, you are reasonably safe because the private sector does not have the capability to break the higher codes, and the government does not have the time or the machines to break every high-level code message or document it comes across. But none of that applies if the government tells its codebreakers to clear the decks and focus on just one document, no matter how lengthy it may be.

· We'd advise the youngster to turn himself in, and take whatever punishment is meted out to him. We're no experts on federal sentencing guidelines, but if he is a first offender with no criminal record, and if he cooperates, he might get away with 7-10 years instead of five times that.

· But is someone dies because of him, or this insurance file really exists and contains damaging material, and he doesn't cooperate, well, sixty years before he sees daylight is not an unreasonable estimate.

· http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2010/07/wikileaks-insurance-file/

The Florida Church and the Koran

· It's not difficult to understand why a Florida church says that Islam is evil and so it will burn Korans on the anniversary of 9/11. Anyone who follows the manner in which so many Islamic countries repress other religions, including Christianity, while claiming the right to freely practice their religion anywhere in the world would be pretty angry.

· But: Burning Korans violates hate crime laws in the US, and no one should doubt that the local authorities will follow the law. If they are the least bit disinclined to do so, the Federal Government will step in, and then things will get messy - for the Church and the local authorities.

· We don't know what the solution is. The Church has every right to freely express its opinion, and if believes Islam is a murderous religion, it has a right to say so. But - unless we wrongly understand US laws - no one has to the right to burn a Koran, a Torah, or for that matter a Bible.

0230 GMT July 31, 2010

· China now second largest economy in the world. Congratulations to the Chinese. Now if someone would explain to us why estimated 2014 wages for India are $5 an hour whereas for China they are $4 hour, at a point where Chinese GDP per capita will be three times India's, maybe we'll start taking Chinese figures a bit money seriously. This data is from the Economist Intelligence Unit series of country 5-year plans. We accessed the data through our college as we had to study the BRIC countries for a class. Unfortunately, we cant provide URLs because the material cannot be accessed from outside the college.

· Missing US sailors By now its clear that the two missing sailors fought back when ambushed by the Taliban; one died in the firefight and one was murdered later, possibly because he was determined not to be easily taken. It's always sad when there are names and pictures to people who die, in accidents, combat, or even old age. Its no consolation to the men's families, but there is something known as dying badly and dying well. No question, but these men died well. It does them and their families honor, though as we said, its probably no consolation.

· In America its never over till its over - and not even then Who doesn't know about Pat Garrett and Billy the Kid? Their story is one of the cornerstone legends of America's Wild West.

· Now the New Mexico governor has gone done pardon the Kid posthumously. Apparently the governor of New Mexico Territory promised the Kid a pardon back in 1881 when he was in jail for killing a person, if he would give testimony in another murder case. The governor reneged on the deal and the current governor, for reasons that are entirely clear, has kept the deal.

· Just the other day we were criticizing Dictator Hugo for digging up Simon Bolivar's body for his own crackpot purposes. Seems to us what Governor Bill Richardson has done is near about as bad.

· Edward De Bono and Somalia Prof. De Bono's books on lateral thinking were for the Editor a change point in his life. He has always looked at problems backward, and been termed mad for it. Do Bono showed that looking at problems backwards, up, down, sideways, anything except frontally, was actually the better way to solve them.

· So if you are a fan of lateral thinking, read this article http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/world-focus-surrender-to-alshabaab-may-be-first-step-to-victory-for-somalia-2039081.html about Somalia. The thinking is the only way to save Somalia is to let al-Shabab take over. That will lead to a counter revolution because the Somalis are simply very contrary people, and al-Shabab will be thrown out.

· We're not wholly convinced this will happen, having seen how the Taliban seized and ruled Afghanistan despite being hated by just about the entire population.

· Nonetheless, after 20-years it is time to acknowledge something drastically different has to be tried.

· While we are always ready to sing Prof. De Bono's praises, we are still confused as to why he calls his technique "lateral " thinking. To us, lateral means along the same line. It does not mean a complete paradigm shift.

· A typical De Bono solution is this. A factory along a river is polluting the water with waste discharges. No one care at the factory cares because the factory takes in clean water upstream, and discharges dirty water downstream. There are two solutions. Fines, which have their own issues. Or forcing the factory to switch outlet and inlet pipes. Is this elegant or what?

0230 GMT July 30, 2010

· Vice-President Biden says that ISI is changing its behavior in regard to Afghanistan, says AFP. If he believes that, may we suggest he keep a constant watch for low-level flying pigs.

· The Vice President further insulted everyone by saying that by making that statement, he was getting very close to the limit of classification. Really? Seems US would trumpet from the roof-tops if Pakistan behavior has changed.

· VP Biden shows how blatantly the US manipulates information and how political are its information releases. The VP is running cover for his president to shield him from a potential backlash about the "revelations" in the Wikileaks paper. What we're confused about is why is he bothering? Does the VP really believe the American public ultimately cares?

· Editor makes a point of refusing to accept all national security information released by the US Government, leakers to the media, and think tanks. 99% of these people twist and select facts to conform to their thesis.

· Any informed person reading the media - no access to "sources" required - knows that the US is caught been a rock and a hard place on Pakistan. When US went into Pakistan in 2001, it thought it could kick the Pakistanis into cooperating. It soon learned that with every passing year, it was Pakistan doing the kicking, by taking US money and still continuing to back the Taliban.

· Oddly, the US Vice President has chosen to make this statement at a time US has come to accept there is a limit beyond which Pakistan will not yield - and that limit has long since been reached.

· Meanwhile, to add further absurdity to the situation Afghanistan's president makes a totally gratuitous statement asking why US/NATO are not striking at Taliban bases in Pakistan. He already knows why: the US is hardly in a position to go to war against a country with 180-million people. With the transit routes through Pakistan closed, how does the Afghan president suggest the supplies needed to expand the war reach Afghanistan? Maybe if his own army and police stood up to the Taliban it wouldnt matter that the Taliban are based in Pakistan.

· Maybe we can turn the flying pigs into lethal weapons. American porkers reach up to 200-kg. Imagine if thousands were unleashed against a Taliban camp. There's the question of refueling the pigs, who presumably will fly out of Diego Garcia. Come to think of it, that's a minor problem. If a 200-kg pig needs - say - 200-kg of fuel to reach target - a single KC-135 should be able to refuel 200 pigs. A single air tanker squadron can refuel 2000 pigs. More to the point, the pigs will have to to be stealthed so that Pakistan air defenses don't knock them out of the sky.

· In the spirit of civic duty, for which we are well-known, we pledge to find a solution to the pigs problem. Got it: A B-2 bomber should be able to carry 100 pigs. See, the whole thing is so simple. Betcha US is regretting cutting back the B-2 program to 20 aircraft from 132.

· We can already see the movies: "Pigs strike at dawn". "Pigs over Swat". "Pigs aaaaawwwwwaaaayyyy!". "American Kamikaze Porkers: No turning back." "Operation Oink". "The Judgment: the story of a bombardier who kept one pig back for his breakfast and got life in Leavenworth." "Oink! Oink! Oink!" (on the lines of "Tora! Tora! Tora!")

· Talking about Tora! Tora! Tora!, we learn Admiral Yamamoto spent two years as a special student at Harvard where he became addicted to poker. He used to beat the pants of his American opponents, which led him to believe Americans were losers. (We are not making this up!.) Just another reason not to trust Harvard.

· Accused $34-million embezzler hopes for "a fair and just" verdict from the jury. This caught our eye in the Times of India (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/indians-abroad/Indian-American-woman-pleads-guilty-in-34-million-fraud-case/articleshow/6233443.cms ) because the accused, who has admitted to the charges and accepted responsibility, is an Indian-American lady. She faces a 20-year sentence; the crime was committed while she a vice-president finance at a finance corporation.

· What precisely does her lawyer mean by "Fair and just"? Substantially less than 20 years? If so, why? Stealing $34-million is hardly a momentary lapse in judgment.

· Seems to us the maximum sentence should be the minimum.

· She allegedly stole the money to pay for her spending habit. A $34-million embezzlement to pay for a spending habit? Assume she stole the money over five years, how does one spend $7-million a year on stuff? Something wrong about this story.

0230 GMT July 29, 2010

Mullah Omar revokes 2009 code, now calls for killing civilians including women who work with the Coalition. http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/07/mullah_omar_orders_t.php

· Israeli PM deserves full marks for honesty He has said that if the settlement freeze continues, his government will fall. Of course, with a freeze as a first step, there can be no negotiated peace.

· Meanwhile, the Israeli PM has extend by 20 years the 50-year period in which documents could be kept secret. So we will not get to see for two decades more documents relating to the 1956 War.

· Latest Pakistan theory: India is behind the Wikileak Normally we have little to say about the constant paranoia Pakistan has concerning India. But this is a conspiracy theory that takes paranoia too far. The leak appears to be the work of a 22-years US Army solider who provided Wikileaks with video and is in custody pending investigations. India cannot possibly have anything to do with this. Plus, India has turned over to the US some of its own material regarding ISI-Taliban cooperation. What opportunity would India have to obtain secret US documents and release them?

· Despite the efforts of the Australian head of Wikileaks to further his ant-war agenda, its amazing at the lack of effect on the US public. It is said in part because nothing new is contained in these papers. They add depth by detailing day-to-day minutiae, but all the topics are known, such as the civilian casualties.

· Meanwhile, US House of Representatives defeated 372-38 a resolution calling for withdrawal of US forces in Pakistan.

· We offer our sincere condolences to the loved ones of 152 passengers and crew killed in an air crash close to Islamabad.

· What the US needs to do is to remedy this gaping hole in its security. When a 22-year private can calmly download ~110,000 secret documents, something is very wrong with US security.

· Gulf oil spill gone - at least on the surface Two days ago, 800 skimmers in the Gulf managed to collect a single barrel of oil. The oil has broken up and disappeared, at least on the surface. The problem now is to determine what might be the long-term effects of the spill.

· BP has upped its announced asset sales to $30-billion to help meet costs of the oil spill, and taken a $22-billion charge. So instead of a $5-billion quarterly profit, it has a $17-billion loss. The idea, apparently, is to get the worst over with so that the market and investors can move on.

0230 GMT July 28, 2010

Apologies for not updating yesterday. Editor was doing some other work and before he knew it, it was 2400 in the US and 0500 GMT and he just could not keep awake anymore

· Afghan commandos retake Nuristan district HQ This makes the fourth change of hands for Barg-e-Matal. Afghan forces encountered no resistance as the Taliban had withdrawn. They say it was to avoid civilian casualties. Perhaps. More realistically, maybe the Taliban have finally learned its not a good idea to make sitting ducks of themselves. If so, it's taken long enough. Slow learners, these fellows.

· http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/07/commandos_again_reta.php

· Letter from Mr. Ramganesh Iyer Contrary to what you say, this leak has exposed the ‘War on Terror’ for what it is – a murderous campaign launched by the NATO for genocide of Muslims. As you yourself say, the Taliban are not a homogenous group or army; and they are distinct from the al Qaeda. So whom is the US battling right now, and why are Afghan civilians caught in the crossfire?

· Some of the anecdotes given of how civilians were killed (pregnant woman, deaf man, etc from Wikileaks) are nauseating. If the US and its citizens have even a modicum of respect for rights of fellow human beings, they need to stop the war forthwith, prosecute any NATO soldiers or leaders found to have indulged in war crimes such as the above, and pour in money to help Iraq and Afghanistan reconstruct themselves, under any political system they (the local people I mean) think fit.

· When you argue that its none of US business to restore human rights in Burma, that is a correct assessment. However, the same is not true of Iraq and Afghanistan, where it is direct and massive US meddling that has led to this state of affairs. Good or bad, democratic or despotic, these countries deserve their own government, and more importantly deserve to be free of US meddling.

· With this ‘leak’, instead of focusing on the message, it’s even more ironic that Western governments have focused on the messenger – about how these ‘leaks’ are ‘unacceptable’, as if the events themselves were any more ‘acceptable’!

· Editor's comment We'd said the other day that US doesn't seem to know, or does not seem to care, what others think of America. Mr. Iyer is only one person, but he reflects with accuracy what many people around the world think. To them Afghanistan is not the "good" war, it is a war of aggression. Striking back at Osama is understandable, but once he escaped, much of the world did not see why the US should take over Afghanistan. If you say, as America does, that it was neccessary because US didn't want terrorists to get a base, well, a lot more countries should be invaded.

· That said, international law does not define war crimes as killing civilians. An act becomes a war crime when civilians are deliberately targeted, or taking insufficient care to avoid collateral damage to civilians. The US has not, in either Gulf II or Afghanistan, deliberately targeted civilians. As to insufficient care, this becomes a matter of subjective interpretation. Let us state the problem backward: international law does not say you have to expose your soldiers to risk just to ensure no civilian gets killed. Seeing as the Taliban fight from among civilians, civilians are going to get killed.

· What impresses Editor is that so few have been killed, Over a four year period, for example, less than 200 civilians have died, or one every seven days. Given the scale of firepower available to NATO, this is surprisingly low. Incidentally new rules of engagement do state that if there is any danger to civilians, retaliatory fire is barred. This is a very high standard to meet.

· As for Mr. Iyer's outrage, it is shared by many Americans.

0230 GMT July 26, 2010

· Taliban gain control of Barg-e-Matal, a district in Nuristan Province bordering Pakistan, says Bill Roggio of www.longwarjournal.org . Afghan troops have withdrawn to 3-km outside the district HQ. This victory for the Taliban occurred despite an Afghan/US Special Forces counterattack on July 23. Mr. Roggio says control of the district HQ has now changed three times this year - and we've still got several months to go.

· Washington Post reported a few days ago that Karzai's intelligence chief, who objected to the President's attempts to kissy-face with the Taliban and was fired, as saying the Taliban control 30% of Afghanistan.

· Our estimate of 80% is based on territory controlled by night and comes from Afghan sources.

· Hugo is being bad again He's threatening war with Colombia, had Simon Bolivar's body dug up to "prove" the great South American revolutionary was murdered by the Colombians using arsenic, which will be found because Bolivar is known to have used the stuff to treat his fevers, and now threatens to cut off oil to the US if Colombia attacks him. Oh yes, he's accused opposition governors of conspiring with the Colombians.

· Hugo sends 850,000-bbl/day to the US. Its high sulfur oil that can be refined only by a couple of special refineries in the States.

· The Chinese, who will be buying oil from Hugo, are setting up a special refinery; we don't know if it is ready, but we doubt it can handle 850,000-bbl/day. And in any case Hugo is counting on the Chinese becoming a new customer in addition to the US. China has built 330,000-bbl/day refineries for high-sulfur crude. Except that they are for Mideast heavy crude.

· Also, shipping time to China is 40 days, eight times the 5-day shipping time to the US. That will reduce Hugo's profits somewhat.

· China already imports 460,000-bbl/day from Venezuela. It plans to import more, but much of the crude for the next few years will go to pay off a $20-billion loan China has made. This loan is separate from the $12-billion Beijing will invest in joint ventures.

· According to the US Energy Information Administration, a third of Venezuela's GDP comes from oil. With inflation running at 30%, and oil output falling due to mismanagement. (1998 = 3.5-million-bbl/day; falling to 2.3-million-bbl/day last year.) Half of Venezuela's government revenues come from oil.

· This would be an excellent time for Hugo to stop exports to the US, because it will accelerate the economic deterioration of his country and may help shorten his reign.

· The pity is Hugo will not stop oil exports to the US. The US needs a big shock to its system so that it gets serious about cutting oil imports. Hugo will not provide that shock, it represents about half of Hugo's oil exports.

· US National security advisor condemns Wikileaks documents that detail Taliban-Pakistan ISI cooperation. Someone gave well over 100,000 documents to Wikileaks, the website put up 92,000 and said it refrained from publishing the rest because they name Afghans cooperation with the Coalition against the Taliban.

· General James Jones says the leak compromises US national security.

· We agree with General Jones. Our problem is that the US Government has successfully bamboozled the American public into thinking Pakistan is a US ally. Every time we have in discussions with Washingtoons have brought up the Taliban-ISI nexus, we get told: "Oh, you're relying on Indian sources and the Indians are hardly impartial."

· So, one the one hand, we are against people leaking. On the other hand, we hope now Americans will understand the truth and hold their government to account on the so-called US-Pakistan alliance.

· The New York Times summary of the documents is damning. The documents even mention ISI-Al Qaeda cooperation - no secret to the Indians, Afghans, and Russian.

· Of course, when the US gives the world intelligence, the world is supposed to accept it blindly because we don't lie. Except when we do. Gulf II being the main case in point.

· But nothing can stop the media from being inane UK Guardian, which incidentally is still not convinced about the ISI-Taliban nexus, highlights reports that say a secret US special forces unit hunts down Taliban leaders and kills them without trial. First, this is a hardly a secret. Second, no doubt the British Special Forces in World War II gave Germans and Japanese they hunted fair trials before shooting them, Ditto for British operations in Malaya and Kenya, to name a couple of obvious ones. We will agree that generally British SF in Northern Ireland did their best not to quietly off enemies of the state, even if it was unavoidable at times, like the 4 IRA members who were shot down on sight by an undercover British unit operating in Europe. Yet Northern Ireland was never a war situation in the way Afghanistan is.

· But readers will also remember the Iranians executed in the siege of the Iran Embassy in London. Between you, us, and reality, the British really had no choice. You just don't know if a terrorist throwing down his weapon and raising his hands is not wired with a grenade or bomb. Moreover, in hostage rescue, there is not a moment to be lost: you can't come across a couple of terrorists in a room and then stop to accept their surrenders and spend time ensuring they are not wired, and spare men to take them out of the building. Every second is critical in such situations, and even if a man throws down his gun - as a couple of the Iran terrorists did, you have to shoot them as efficiently as possible and get on with your job.

· Readers will also remember the South American boy was was being tailed into a London subway station on a wrong identification, and who didn't stop when the authorities ordered him to. Inside his subway car, a policeman tackled him and got him pinned to the floor, but another person altogether shoved the policeman aside and put six bullets into the boy's head.

· Was the shooter, probably from the Royal Reconnaissance Regiment which is authorized to operate by a different set of rules, wrong to do what he did?

· Not a bit. Considering that the authorities were chasing a person they thought was a suicide bomber, it was incredibly brave for the policeman to have tackled him. But if the man had been the bomber and was wired, a lot of people in that car would have died. The shooter did absolutely the right thing,

· When we supported the British authorities on the issue, someone asked us: "How would you feel if that was your boy who got killed?" Our counter-question was: "How would you have felt if the man had been the bomber that was being sought, and the authorities respected his rights, and he had blown the subway car to pieces?"

· Someone else theorized the man was running because he was staying in England on an expired visa. Okay, but how exactly are the authorities, who were tailing the right man, lost him, and thought they had picked him up again, to know that about the man's visa?

· The British are a practical people, and they are fighting the Taliban too, and we can bet the SAS men on that joint US-British task force that hunts high-level Taliban do not greet a suspect they have captured with hugs, kisses, pink blankies, hot cocoa, and bunny slippers.

· http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/26/world/asia/26isi.html?_r=1&hp

· The Guardian http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jul/25/afghanistan-war-logs-military-leaks mentions that the reports say "hundreds" of civilians have been killed.

· We were frankly puzzled, because we thought the figure would be in thousands - and not in the tens of thousands had Coalition operated without restraint as happened in Vietnam.

· To us the civilian death toll is not an occasion to attack US/Coalition forces, but to congratulate them on keeping down civilian casualties. The War has been on for nearly 9 years. "Hundreds" can mean - let us say - 700. That's one civilian every four days. We think that is an exemplary record of restraint.

· Indian birth and death rates drop dramatically reports the Times of India, based on the release of a national survey covering 7.1-million. India's birth rate has dropped to 23 per 1000, and the death rate has also declined, chiefly due to a drop in infant mortality, an area which is a source of great shame for India.

· Kerala, which is a highly educated state, has pushed its infant mortality down to 12 per 1000, less than a fifth of the national rate of 53. That is a drop in 10 years from 72.

· What is truly impressive is that several states are no longer experiencing population gains. Kerala, for example, at a net 8 per 1000 is below replacement rate, as are Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and west Bengal, all at 11 or under.

· What is even more impressive is that the all-powerful central government seems to have little to do with these drops. It seems to be a combination of local state action, better education, and higher incomes.

· If the trend continues, demographers may have to revise their estimate that India's population will level off at 1.6-billion.

· http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Punjab-Maharashtra-Bengal-lead-in-curbing-birth-rate/articleshow/6216665.cms

0230 GMT July 25, 2010

Has America Betrayed Burma?

· An article in Washington Post accused the US of "betraying" Burma. Similarly, consequent on the US announcement that it is resuming ties with the Indonesian Special Forces, a woman whose activist husband was murdered by the Indonesian special Forces wrote an op-ed in the Post (July 24, 2010). She did not speak of betrayal, but she made it quite clear that that's what she considers President Obama has done.

· Lets take Burma first. How, by any definition, is the US responsible for Burma? Yes, there is a military dictatorship that seems to take sadistic pleasure in hurting the leader of the democracy movement, who is under prolonged and onerous house arrest. But this is between Burma and its own people. It has nothing to do with the US.

· Editor would like to incidentally mention that right in his American hometown of Takoma Park, there is a City government sponsored committee of two people whose job it is to make sure no City contracts are awarded to companies with dealing with Burma. There is no committee to make sure no City contracts are awarded to companies dealing with China.

· Years ago, as a political instrument, the US began making an issue of human rights in countries it did not like. But that does not mean the US is responsible to take action against countries that abuse civil rights.

· Civil rights is one component of the US foreign policy agenda. Since when is the US obliged to make that the overriding component?

· US, increasingly concerned with the rise of Chinese military power, has reopened contacts with the Indonesian military that were earlier cut off over Indonesian human rights violations. So what should come first: national security or some impossibly high standard of civil rights that aside from a few countries none can meet - and certainly not the US.

· Colombia is another example. There are powerful lobbies in the US upset with Washington's military aid to Colombia because, they say, Colombia insufficiently respects human rights. We'd like these groups to explain to us how on earth is Colombia supposed to fight the ruthless narco-guerillas while keeping its hands clean. If Colombia was not getting aid from the US, how would it have defeated FARC? So does anyone thing think if FARC had destroyed the government, the cause of human rights would have been advanced?

· The world is an imperfect place. If other countries followed the human rights standards many Americans want from their country, do Americans understand that the democratic world would have to sanction the US for its violation of human rights in the GWOT? Personally, Editor believes anyone who wages war against the US should have zero rights, particularly if they fight out of uniform and from among civilians. But you see, the Colombians, Burmese, and Indonesia feel the same way about their folks who are waging war against the state. So do the Chinese, the Sudanese, and Hugo Chavez, so outstanding a case of "the state? It is me" that Hitler would have been proud.

· There is a reason the UN used to draw a firm line against intervening in the internal affairs of member states. One reason was that it was not practical. Another was that few states had clean hands.

· So what is it we are saying here? First, no matter how terrible the abuses a government wrecks on its people, it is NOT the US's responsibility to intervene. When the US left Somalia in 1991, it explicitly admitted that despite the terrible toll to civilians in Somalia, what was happened was the Somalis business and not America's. Second, human rights cannot be the be-all and end-all of relations with other states. There are often times when human rights have to take second place to other considerations. Third, the US had better think twice about running roughshod over human rights when it suits America. The amount of damage the US has caused its global reputation over its human rights violations in the GWOT is so enormous it cannot be quantified. When President Obama took office, people all over the world were so happy he was not Bush they rapidly dialed down their criticism of the US. Pretty soon its going to become evident that Mr. Obama is not that much different from Mr. Bush and people are going to start getting agitated again.

· We'd like to leave readers with a question When Pakistan launches CI operations on its own territory, there are massive violations of human rights. Pakistan Army flattens whole villages, uses the heaviest firepower it can bring to bear even in civilian areas, and kills hundreds, if not thousands, of civilians in each operation.

· So how come no one is beating up the US to punish Pakistan?

· Answer is quite simple, isn't it. Supporting Pakistan aids US objectives. With few exception Americans see that. So they are quiet about the human rights violations in Pakistan. So what's the case for beating up Indonesia and Colombia?

News

· India is to order another 57 Hawk jet trainers from Britain, including 17 for the Indian Navy. This will bring the total to 123 by 2016. The reason we mentioned this it shows how the Indians work. The requirement was formulated in the early 1980s and labeled as critical. One reason so many Indian Air Force pilots were dying was the lack of an advanced jet trainer. The pilots were going straight from an intermediate jet trainer to the high performance MiG-21. But it will be 30 years before the program requirements are met.

· India to purchase lightweight radars for China border. Okay, that's good, the radars will see 3-400km into Tibet air space. Good job, India. Er...anyone care to explain why 48 years after the two countries fought a war, ending in a complete humiliation for India, India doesn't have complete radar coverage of the north?

· BP to start drilling off Libya Before US Congress and US media get into their usual holier-than-thou mode, its best to remember that the US led the charge to end sanctions against Libya. There were good reasons to do so: the Americans killed over Lockerbie, Scotland were not coming back to life, Libya paid compensation. and the country has oil and gas. Lots of it. We need it. If it's okay for us to deal with Libya, it's okay for the British to deal with Libya. Can we make it any simpler than that?

· Not that Congress or media will listen to us. watch the manufactured outrage on this new issue.

· http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/bp-to-start-drilling-off-libyan-coast-2035002.html

· DPRK threatens nuclear retaliation as US-ROK begin naval exercises. We implore DPRK: please, please, please, attack US-ROK forces. Pretty please and do it with nuclear weapons though we are convinced you have any. Hope we're wrong: nothing like a nuclear-warhead missile fired at a US carrier group to ensure the end of DPRK.

Letter from Shawn Dudley

· Re your mention of X-Ray lasers for ABM defense: the concept is still too far out there to be practical. Perhaps in another generation this type of weapon will be developed, but primarily as a space-to-space weapon.

· As far as the ABM system goes I have no doubt that the grown-ups in the US military have spare nuke warheads for all of the ABM platforms, stored right next to those ASATs and EMP weapons that we're not supposed to have either. Unethical? Of course, but then, as you say, why take chances?

0230 GMT July 24, 2010

Taliban, Pakistan and Afghanistan - II

· The simpler way to explain what's happening, instead of a long rambling history, is to tell you how Editor sees the outcome of the situation.

· First, unless President Karzai changes course and decides to fight the Taliban instead of negotiating with them, Afghanistan is going to split in two, a Pushtun east/southeast and a Central Asian tribes west/northeast. This time around, try as they might, the Taliban will not be able to reunite the country because (a) the other tribes will fighting the Pushtuns; and (b) Russia, India, possibly the US, will openly support the other tribes. Even without the US, Russia and India have the resources to outgun the Taliban, no matter how much Pakistan supports it.

· Second, even if President Karzai decides to fight the Taliban - something he is convinced is hopeless, the scenario above will unfold. Afghanistan as a unitary state will be off the table for at least two decades.

· Third, with Kabul reconquered, there will be trouble between the Afghanistan Taliban and the Pakistan Taliban. The Afghan Taliban will throw off Pakistan Army's yoke, even as it continues to take help to fight off the western tribes.

· Fourth, there will be pressure from both Talibans for a Pushtoonistan and there is every chance this will come about. But a lot depends on the Pakistan Army. We'd like to warn readers not to judge the fighting capability of the Pakistan army by the mock battles fought to assuage the US. Pakistan Army is fully capable of burning the NWFP to the ground and killing as many people as it needs to in order to keep the province. Readers unaware of the Pakistan Army's capabilities will benefit from reading up about the East Pakistan campaign in 1971 before the Indian stepped in, as also about the Baloch rebellion 1972-76 which the Pakistan Army crushed. Editor regrets he cannot suggest books because his knowledge is not from the history books, but from the events of those times. including talking to people who were there.

· Fifth, while there is speculation in the end Pakistan may let much of NWFP go, things may not come to that. Parenthetically, please remember that just Pakistan Punjab itself is one of the most populous countries in the world, over 100-million people, so whatever the shape of Pakistan to come in the next 60 years, it is not going away unless India undertakes to make it go away, which India will not.

· The most likely scenario, however, is that if the Taliban pressure on Pakistan becomes intolerable, the Pakistan Army, which is highly opportunistic, will join the Taliban. You will have an Iran situation: a fundamentalist state with a professional army and a revolutionary army, but with the professionals exercising more power. And of course, compared to the Taliban the Iranians are hooting liberals. (BTW, when talking of Iran remember the urban Iranis and the rural Iranis are quite different in their social outlook.

· However this shakes out, the Taliban will join the Pakistan Army in taking on India. The Pakistan Army - and by extension the Pakistan state - has had no other business except India since 1947. The only thing different will be that with Eastern Afghanistan and Pakistan Talibanized, the Pakistan Army can focus its irregulars on India.

· Where does this leave India if the events above come to pass? A good question. whichever way you look at it, there will be trouble. But now readers need to be informed of a few broad strategic points.

· India can, and largely has already, closed the border with Pakistan. It is near impossible to infiltrate in the plains, in the mountains the Pakistanis have been forced to keep moving north as India closes more and more of the border. Right now Pakistan tries to infiltrate into the wild terrain of northwest Kashmir, but this border too will soon be closed. The Taliban will not be able to infiltrate through the Sonamarg-Kargil sector because (a) it is very high altitude and you can't just wake up one morning and say, "I think I'll infiltrate Dras, or Matayan, or Kargil," or whatever; (b) the locals will not welcome the Taliban. They have their own life. But who knows? Ten years down the road, or twenty, perhaps the Taliban can infiltrate from here.

· What will happen? Well, India will simply close that border too.

· You have to understand about India: it spends very little on defense - 2.5% of GDP, it has 1.2-billion people, and a GNP of $1.6 trillion (the $1,2-trillion figure you see in the reference books is NNI, not GNP; for some reason India prefers to us NNI) growing at 8-10% a year. It has plenty of resources to do what it wants defense wise. The reason it had so much trouble in Kashmir was that India was not bothered to get serious about the war. In true Indian fashion everything was ad hoc. Close the border? "Oh, that's too much trouble and this affair will soon be over anyway."

· But India after 1999 started to get serious - only started; 1999 being the year Pakistan army infiltrated into Indian North Kashmir because both sides used to withdraw their forces to safer climes during the hard winter. It is not a joke manning outposts and patrolling at 4-6000 meters in the middle of the winter.

· After 2008, India got even more serious. Why, India has even decided it must do something about the Maoists, after letting them run around for 20 years.

· As a sign of getting serious, India has decided to start closing the Nepal border, something India never bothered with despite increasing Maoist and Pakistan ISI sponsored infiltration from Nepal. As usual with India, no one sat down and said: "Face facts, people, we're going to need 3-500,000 border police to do the job." Instead first India raised 30-40 battalions (30-40,000), and now is raising another 30-40 battalions (we'll have to check the actual figures) in a leisurely, five year plan. This is the typical constipated bureaucratic approach that has bedeviled India for its entire existence since 1947.

· But as we said, things are changing. For example, India wants to keep the four divisions it is preparing for CI ops in Central India for as short a time as possible. So in one swoop it will authorize a doubling of the Rashtriya Rifles, adding another 60 battalions and 80,000 troops. previously the Army would have had to fight to get 12 RR battalions. Just the size of the planned Army deployment indicates that the Indians have become serious and no longer hope that by deploying a tenth of the force needed the problem will go away.

· So you see, it doesn't matter if India needs to raise 1-million more army and paramilitary troops, or 2-million, or 5-million. For a country of 1.2-billion, an army and border force of 10-million means that less than 1 in one hundred will be under arms.

· As for money, consider this. India has authorized the purchase of 6 conventional submarines for $10-billion. Just six submarines. India has money. At 2.5% of GDP, roughly 50% of India's defense budget goes for weapons and equipment - that's $15-billion every year. Move spending up by half a percent of GDP, and that's another $6-billion, enough to add several hundred personnel to the army and border forces.

· So don't worry about India. It will come out fine.

0230 GMT July 23, 2010

Alert: Rant Meter is low. Have to put off Taliban. We haven't forgotten we have to finish off the Kashmir rant.

· General Kiyani extended by three years as Pakistan COAS The official media is trying to whitewash this as considered decision of the civilian government, which is fine, as long as everyone keeps in mind the civilian government had no choice. And in any case, he probably is the best person to continue leading Pakistan at this time.

· India considers giving tribals share in extraction industries One reason for the unrest in Central India's tribal belt is that big corporations (private and public) come in, take the land, for which the tribals get little, and environmentally wreck the tribals' way of life. So perhaps it isn't that great a life, but it's their life and it's a lot better than being dispossessed of your land, with no prospect of getting a job in the mining enterprise, and with the paltry sums you're given soon gone. (Fact alert: much of the land belongs to the government but the tribals have the use of it, for example, for firewood and harvesting plants. Once it goes to the extractive industry, of course, the tribals have no access.)

· So the government's new idea that 26% share should be given to the tribals is actually a great move; so great that we're a bit surprised someone as brain-dead as the Government of India came up with the idea. (We're being polite when we say 'a bit surprised': we're totally knocked out.) Of course, the mechanics have to be worked out, and nothing involving giving money to the poor in India is ever simple because of the high potential for exploitation. But still: congratulations, GOI. Now if you just get yourself together on the other 10,000 major issues that need your attention...

· US naval test laser shoots down three drones in a test at sea. Occasionally Editor would wondered what happened to the Navy's Chair Heritage program of the 1970. (Yes, Editor is quite aware that that he wonders about such things shows that he really, truly has no life, but we all know that, so can we get on with the discussion please?). Did it really take 35 years to get the laser to field test stage? Or did people stop working on it?

· But anyway, it works. The problem has been that the sea atmosphere attenuates the laser beam - moisture absorbs heat. So now there's another problem: US Navy warships now use such gigantic amounts of electrical power that there may be insufficient amounts for the laser. The solution may be to build nuclear-powered surface warships again.

· Meanwhile, we're wondering what happened to the US program to use a nuclear-device pumped anti-missile laser? We seem to recall that US got up to proof-of-concept. Did the arms controls agreements kill the program? US really needs to bring it back. You can use thing like a repeater gun to hit enmass multiple missile, decoys, warheads, whatever you can track, and it sure is easier to use a laser beam to intercept an airborne target that to hit it with a kinetic kill vehicle.

· (Though as we've said we're a bit suspicious of the KV thing: when you can kill missiles with N-warheads, why take chances? Of course, the more precise the KV, the smaller warhead you need. If we recall, the Nike ABM had a 5-MT warhead. Though come to think of it, so what? Sure your surface communications will fry, but military communications wont because the critical systems will be hardened. Fall out from modern warheads is not an issue: you could use a X-ray emitter to kill warheads. and in any case, even if there is fall-out, it's a lot better than having to cope with a multiple warhead missile or two or five detonating over a major US city. Thoughts, readers?)

· The latest escapade in the Hugo Chavez Follies Our Fave Dictator has broken diplomatic relations with the Colombians because the Columbians - oh those dirty skunks - produced evidence that Hugo has been harboring Colombian narco-rebels. Color us uninformed, but we didn't think this has been a matter of dispute for the past 20 years or so. Anyway. Let Hugo enjoy himself while he can. Sure, he seems to be able to dig a pretty big hole without so far having buried himself, but the US is absolutely right to leave him strictly alone so he can peacefully self-destruct.

· You absolutely don't want a Cuba situation where US has kept the Cuban dictatorship in place for 48 years. Sometimes we wonder if Cuba hasn't been paying off successive US administrations to keep up the hostility. Nah. That's an unworthy thought: US is perfectly capable of foolishness on its own. Doesn't have to be paid off.

· Meanwhile, a while ago we asked one the Washington Giant Brains why the US thought it okay to engage with China, which was a dictatorship ten times worse than Cuba, but not with Cuba. This is what WGB said: "With China there is a prospect we will move them to democracy. With Cuba there is no chance at all."

· Hmmmm. Well, Don't Bogart That Joint, that's all we can say.

· Now why can't they have First Wives like this in the US? From the UK Independent: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/with-a-wife-like-this-japans-pm-doesnt-need-enemies-2033402.html

· "As leader of the world's second largest economy, Naoto Kan may be one of the most powerful men on the planet, but his wife, for one, is not in the least impressed. Japan's new Prime Minister is a poor speaker, a bad cook and can't dress for toffee, according to Nobuko Kan, his wife of 40 years. Worse for the ailing country, he simply isn't a leader. "He's more of a No 2 or a No 3 person rather than being at the top," says Mrs. Kan in a new book called Now You Are Prime Minister, How On Earth Is Japan Going to Change?""

· And "Mr Hatoyama's wife also made headlines when she told a startled Japan that her soul had taken a ride on a UFO with aliens and travelled to Venus. Miyuki Hatoyama also said she had met Tom Cruise in a previous life – when he was Japanese."

· You Go, Girl. Mrs. First Lady needs to talk to Editor's eldest. He is convinced he was an abused child because Editor told him we were from Mars. No mention that Editor never lied to him about anything including Santa Claus. Editor never even pretended to the youngster that life had any meaning other than being simply a fleeting transitory moment between being dead. No Sir, there were no lies, white, blue, green or otherwise.

· To be sure, Editor is a bit unsure of the Japanese's First Lady's trip to Venus. In Editor's time there was no life on Venus. Martians never went there - any more than your soul hitches a ride on a garbage truck to visit a large landfill. But perhaps things have changed. Editor has not been back for 58 years. That's when he was sent to Earth, purportedly on a top secret mission. But when the Mother Ship did not return, year after year, and nor did any instructions come, the sad truth became evident: This superspy business was just a way of getting rid of the Editor. Editor was for sure an abused child. Does he complain? No. He simply feels sorry for him and gets another chocolate out of the 'fridge.

· By the way, Tom Cruise is not Japanese right now? But Editor saw the movie...How many lies can a man swallow down before he has to admit he's an idiot? Its really too much to endure.

0230 GMT July 22, 2010

The Taliban: What after Afghanistan? - I

· Reader David J. Barta wrote in to what we thought of Bharat Rakshak Forum's discussion on what do the Taliban do after Afghanistan is again theirs.

· Let us first commend BR, a fine website which Editor often consults. The Forum discussions are crowded and lively, and well moderated, mercifully free from the potty-mouthed contributors so common - for example - in Chinese national security forums. No ad hominem attacks are permitted

· The BRF argument is that when Afghanistan is done, as it will be shortly, the Taliban will turn on the Pakistan Army and the people of Pakistan, and that will be the end of Pakistan.

· Not quite To understand why not, you really have to go back to the relationship between the Pakistan Army and the Taliban. And to understand that relationship, you cannot rely on external analysis, you really have no choice but to rely on intelligence information, Indian, Afghan, American, and Russian. This is because the relationship is not on the record.

· To start, it is a mistake to assume there is any light between the Taliban and the Pakistan Army It has suited the US, and very much suited Pakistan, to talk of the bad Taliban and the good Taliban. Sorry, folks, there is neither good Taliban or bad Taliban. There is just the Taliban, and it remains a combat arm of the Pakistan military.

· Backtrack a bit, if you don't mind. The Taliban is not a monolithic organization like - say - a regular army. It is composed of many groups, some with just a few hundred fighters, some with thousands of fighters. Each group has its own interests and differences with the other groups, with Pakistan, with Afghanistan, and so on. So you cannot issue a Directive from Pakistan GHQ saying "On the 1st of August the following Taliban units will report to Place X in preparation for Operation Top Secret."

· Rather, think of the Taliban as social networkers with AK-47s and bad attitudes, whose form of operations is the swarm. It is not a true swarm, because it has a very Big Dog - the Pakistan Army - that lays down rules, and provides money, training, equipment, ammunition, supplies and - yes - leadership and advisors.

· The rift between the Pakistan Army and the "bad" Taliban is history all that happened here is the Pakistan Army sought to tell the Taliban "Look, the Americans are on our tail, we need to stage an "operation" - think Austin Powers - and can you cooperate? We need you to lay low, and let us march around making a big bang-bang show."

· After a point some of the Taliban groups told the Pakistan Army: "You are a bunch of running dogs and we want you to stop sucking up to the Americans or we're going to get mad."

· Harsh words were spoken. Blows were exchanged. Yes, a few hundred Taliban and Pakistan security forces personnel were killed. It all played very nicely into the hands of the Pakistan Army, which could now "show" the Americans it was seriously battling the Taliban.

· Problem was, it was all a show. For example, the Mesuds and Pakistan Army declared war on each other, they were very angry at each other. But the Pakistan army never acted to seriously hurt the Mesuds, and the Mesuds showed restraint on their side.

· This shadow play came to an abrupt end when (a) US insisted on real results; (b) it became clear the US was going to leave Afghanistan. if you go back over Pakistani statements over the last nine months or so, you will see the Pakistanis have openly, clearly, and unambiguously told the Americans that they have core interests with the Taliban, and these interests are not going to be surrendered. Have the Americans gotten mad? No really. They actually understand.

· Is this a weird situation or what? After all, this is the same Pakistan Army/Taliban killing American and Coalition forces in Afghanistan. But the Americans are completely worn out and openly acknowledge Pakistan has core interests in Afghanistan and pursuing these interests is legitimate. So weird or not, the Americans and Pakistanis have reached an accommodation; the Pakistanis and the Karzai Government have reached an accommodation, etc etc . Too complicated to explain today.

· But you will object - correctly - what about all the bomb attacks against civilians, against the Pakistan Army, the attacks on the Frontier Corps etc etc.? Does this not show that the Taliban is off on its own agenda, and is not under control of the Pakistan Army?

· Excellent question. We'll address it tomorrow.

Greece, taxes, and corruption

· Let's start with the Editor conceding his complete ignorance about any non-defense aspect of Greece. To him its a European country, and that's about it.

· So a report on NPR about Greece and taxes yesterday came as a bit of shock. Apparently when it comes to tax avoidance, the Greeks put even many a 3rd world country to shame.

· Example. In one Greek neighborhood 300-something people admit to owning a swimming pool. That indicates a certain level of income and attracts the closer attention of Mr. Tax Man. The authorities did a search on - where else - Google Earth and discovered the area had 17,000 swimming pools.

· Example. A Greek lawyer declares an annual income of Euro 12,000 a year. His real income is 15-25 times as much. So every few year Mr. Tax Man visits to see if the lawyer is evading taxes. The lawyer makes Mr, Tax Man a "gift" of Euro 5,000, and all is well.

· Greek stores routinely quote you a "with receipt" and a "without receipt" price.

· Almost no government service - including getting a hospital room, getting proper attention from nurses, and service from doctors, involves routine multiple bribes.

· A Greek official put the situation concisely. He says the Greek revenue administration operates in 19th Century style. It has issues that have remained unresolved since then.

· The Greek Government is adamant that tax evasion must be cracked down on. Two reasons. One is that with the austerity measures, the common people are revolting. We'd mentioned in this blog that the typical Greek salary person makes US$7-800/month, and the crackdown on so-called unjustified perks such as a 13th month's worth of wages each year was actually taking away money the ordinary person needs to make ends meet. The common person has to be shown that the Government is going to make the better off pay their share. Two, Greek economists are saying that if the tax evasion can be reduced, the Government will not have to cut spending to the bone. Drastically reducing spending risks pushing the country into a deep recession, which makes it harder to pay its renegotiated debt, and makes certain the likelihood of a sovereign debt default.

· So: all we can do is wish the Greeks good luck and we hope they get it straightened out.

· The Greeks might consider America. Editor often explains to visitors that the one thing you do not do in America is evade taxes. You see, taxes are critical to the functioning of the state. If you evade taxes and get caught - and the probability is high - the Government will hound you for the rest of your life, aside from taking away everything you own. If you shoot a dozen people you can sob about your abusive dad and druggie mom and the courts will give you a break. After all, a few citizens less do not make a difference to the functioning of the state - particularly if they are poor and pay little tax.

Twinkle, twinkle big fat star...

· ...Its official name is R136a1, and as distances in the known universe go its on the next block, at 165,000 light-years away (http://www.eso.org/public/news/eso1030/)

· Before astronomers found R136a1, they'd theorized the biggest star could have a mass 150 times that of the sun. This lady in her infancy was ~320 times the mass of the sun, and a million years later is still ~265 times. Unlike humans, the star is losing weight as she matures.

· The problem with these big, beautiful, giant stars is they burn through their hydrogen very, very fast. R136a1 has a life measured in millions of years, compared to good old Sol, which has a life of 10-billion years. Some brown dwarves could have lives of trillions of years, and black dwarves could live even longer. The less energy a star spends, the longer it lives.

· R136a1 may not have much longer to live, perhaps just another million years. Astronomers suspect it is heading for an exotic stellar death (http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11799-did-antimatter-factory-spark-brightest-supernova.html) when it will outshine supernovae by 100 times.

· Too bad. Would be nice to visit this star.

0230 GMT July 21, 2010

· BP starts selling assets Yesterday it announced the sale of assets in Vietnam, Pakistan, the US, Canada, and Egypt, to raise $7-billion towards the $10-billion it needs to beef up its cash reserves to pay for the oil spill. So far BP has spent $4-billion and is likely to have permanently killed the Macondo well before it reaches $5-billion. The problem is going to be with the liability lawsuits that are coming - to paraphrase Austin Powers, "This is America, baby!".

· BP is thinking it may need to raise another $10-billion.

· What surprised us a bit is that media information seemed to point to BP raising money from sovereign wealth funds. But perhaps that's where the second tranche will come from.

· Meanwhile, back at the ranch it's a "hi, ho, away" for the Gulf oil rigs. There are more rigs in the Gulf of Mexico than anywhere else on earth, some 240. A rig can earn half-a-million dollars a day - that's serious change. A third rig has pulled out and is headed for more congenial waters.

· So what's three rigs of 240, you will say. A lot of rigs are tied down by contract, so they're making their money anyway. Plus no one knows at this stage how the offshore deep-water drilling ban will work out. Plus you don't switch these monsters to new deployments overnight.

· Nonetheless, the simple reality is, money is fungible. If it is not welcome in Country A, it migrates to Country B. It then becomes hard to get it back to Country A.

· Which suits the US environmentalists who want to shut down all offshore drilling just fine. Of course, the environmentalists could care zip that the rigs will go to countries few of which are as concerned about their environment as is the US. But that's okay: if the West Africans, for example, wreck their environment by drilling/producing oil for America, how is that America's problem? And if more of America's oil comes from overseas, stepping up the cost of protecting the oil lanes and getting America involved in the internal politics of many unsavory states, how is that the environmentalists problem?

· Also meanwhile we hear on the radio Louisiana has reopened 80% of its waters to recreational fishing, with a catchy come hither emphasizing its waters have not been fished in three months, and there's plenty of fat fellows waiting to be hooked.

· India's rupee symbol Let Editor first state its a nice symbol, very elegant, bi lingual, can be written in two strokes if you are used to writing right to left, etc etc. Congratulations on the young man who came up with it. We're told he holds a PhD in typography, which must have helped.

· Next let Editor state he loves India and he loves the people.

· By now readers have guessed Editor is going to say something really really rude about his home country.

· Not at all, unless you consider the statement "Why are Indians such blithering idiots" to be rude. If someone is downright ugly, is it rude to say: "They're ugly"? No. Similarly, its not rude to say "Indians are blithering idiots" when they are acting like blithering idiots.

· Back to the rupee symbol. "India joins elite club" crows the Indian media "India only the fifth to have own currency symbol" says other Indian media.

· First, an elite club has to be accepted as an elite club. There is no club, elite or otherwise, of countries with symbols for their currency. Second, you have to be invited to join a club, you can't gatecrash. Since there is no club in the first place, no one invited India to join the club.

· Third, what status does a currency symbol confer? Zero, and we can prove this by pointing out that of the 100+ currencies, only four have symbols. It takes a couple of graphic artists and a few tries to get a currency symbol, so even Zimbabwe could have a symbol if it wanted. It does not want for the reason the other 96+ don't want: it is meaningless.

· Fourth, the Chinese are sitting on $2.5-trillion worth of foreign exchange reserves versus $270-billion for India. But they haven't bothered getting a unique currency symbol. They share their symbol with Japan. Does that mean they aren't part of an elite club? Are they inferior in some way? Do they feel ostracized? Do they think they are inadequate in some way and must go sob on top of their foreign currency hoard, feeling rejected?

· We don't think so.

· Personally, though we like the symbol, we think "INR" has gravitas. The Indians say they needed a symbol to distinguish the Indian rupee from, say, the Pakistan rupee.

· Okay, but when people talk, they don't say "How many (symbol) does that cost?" They say "how many rupees does that cost?" When dealing with foreign exchange, no one says "How many rupees to the dollar today?" unless they are in India. If they overseas, and need shorthand, they'll say "how many INR to USD", not "How many (symbol) to (symbol)?"

· Next, do Indians realize on foreign exchange markets the US dollar is represented as USD, and not as $? Sometimes it is represented at US$. Because, you see, other people also have dollars as in $: there's at least a dozen other countries. Canada, Australia, Bahamas, Hong Kong, and Cayman Islands come immediately to mind. Some Latin American countries use the $ sign for pesos, and indeed that's where the US picked up the symbol: the Americans did not invent it as far as we know.

· In any case, if India wants to be part of the same elite club as the Cayman Islands, we're sure the Cayman Islanders won't mind. we're told they're a generous people.

· Can the Indians for once, just once, think before they speak? Oh are we doomed forever to be a nation of hyper ADHD types, where words just tumble from our mouths after we glimpse a thought for a nanosecond on the far away edges of the universe?

0230 GMT July 20, 2010

Kashmir - II

· We'd brought you up to the December 31, 1948 ceasefire in the First Kashmir War. Over the next 17 years, little happened. In 1964, however, the foreign minister of Pakistan Mr. Z.A. Bhutto told the Army that because of the post-China War buildup by India, Pakistan would never again have a chance to grab Kashmir by force. The deed had to be done immediately while the buildup was still underway, before it was too late.

· Why it was already way too late is something we can discuss at another time. But in the summer of 1965, Pakistan sent 12,000 infiltrators into Kashmir. The people of Kashmir in the main helped the Indian security forces hunt down the infiltrators, the 1965 War resulted, another ceasefire, both sides gave up their territorial gains, peace and quiet.

· Fast forward to 1971. This war was not about Kashmir. India planned to use the excuse of the war to finish where it failed in 1948, to bring back all of Kashmir to India. For various reasons - another long story - India's operations to retake Kashmir were not launched, and India fought a defensive war in Kashmir. Pakistan was on the offensive, it met with marginal success in the west and lost heavily in the north. Ceasefire, both India and Pakistan went back into their coma.

· Fast forward to 1985. Thanks to the Afghan War, some Kashmiris began dreaming of independence. Why this is so when for near 40 years they had not pushed for independence is another long story for another time. The conventional wisdom - even in India - is that Indian misrule pushed the Kashmiris to revolt. Unfortunately for those of us who want simple explanations. alleged Indian misrule is not even a minor part of the story. But, as we say, another time.

· Forward to 1990, the Afghan War is won, Pakistani ISI has won it, and inevitably thinks to itself: "Hey guys, we just defeated a superpower. Why can't we use the same tactics in Kashmir, after all the Indians are wimps." Well, there were several reasons why what happened in Afghanistan had no relevance to Kashmir, but as the Americans know very well by now, ISI is not prone to deep thinking. It is very, very persistent, and it will defeat another superpower in Afghanistan, this time the Americans. We'll explain another day, but it doesn't matter how many superpowers Pakistan defeats in Afghanistan, it can't win in Kashmir.

· In Kashmir, first the Pakistanis used genuine Kashmiris from its side and genuine Kashmiris on the Indian side. The Indians either killed them all or turned them around. So then the Pakistanis started using outsiders. This didn't work too well because the Indian army's standing unofficial orders were: "If its an Indian Kashmiri, rehabilitate him, if its a Pakistani Kashmir, mess him up, but if he is a foreigner, shoot him on the spot."

· So by 2005, the insurgency was just about done, because it doesn't matter how brave you think you are, if a field execution is your fate, if not the first time you infiltrate, the next time or the time after that, you tend to lose enthusiasm for the cause.

· Editor 100% blames India for the way the insurgency was fought and for its duration. Government of India has made dozens of criminal national security mistakes since 1947, none was more egregious and costly than the 1985-2005 phase of the insurgency. The Army contributed by its extreme passivity. There are reasons for all this - yes, another story for another time.

· Now to 2010. We've already said the Pakistan ISI is persistent and we give them full marks for that. if the Indians were anywhere near as committed to the Indian cause as the Pakistanis are to theirs, please believe us, Pakistan would be considered an aberration in past history.

· ISI has learned several lessons, one is that the head on confrontation with the Indian army doesn't work. It doesnt matter how ideologically committed you are, you cannot out fight professional, long service troops. That doesn't mean Pakistan has given up on the foreigners - but that will be Phase II of this current insurgency. Right now the Pakistanis are trying out the Gaza option: provoke the Indian security to a disproportionate response, use only young boys and young men, do not show any guns, get the world enraged at this repression of innocent youth fighting misrule, bring unbearable pressure on India to compromise.

· Yawn. Gee, our toenails need trimming. Oh, sorry - ISI was saying what about its new strategy? Guess we'll have to explain to ISI since as we said, Persistence 100%, Opportunism 100%, Thinking Through Things 0%. No, this strategy is not going to work either, not least because contrary to what Pakistan wants to believe, Indian Kashmir is not occupied. It is a democratic state within a democratic country, it has its own legislature and police force, it appoints Members of Parliament to the federal government, its residents travel anywhere they want in the world. non-Kashmiris are forbidden to settle in Kashmir, it gets a huge disproportionate share of resources per capita, and the federal government is at all times engaged in a dialog with the dissidents, the separatists, the independence seekers.

· But what about heavy handed Indian repression? Look, 15 youths have been killed in the past few months. whatever about the quiet killings, the rapes, the disappearances, the curfews?

· First, insofar as this is currently a Gaza scenario, we must freely admit that the Indian authorities have been caught with their pants down and have been responding with disproportionate force. Second, there are good and sound reasons to react with disproportionate force - we'll discuss this too,

· But in the meanwhile, don't think the infiltrators have gone away. They still try to cross every day. And it is just a matter of time before the Pakistan Taliban and their friends turn their attention to Kashmir.

· Rather than give elaborate explanations which skeptical readers can dismiss as Indian self-justification, we'd like readers to consider a scenario.

A scenario for Americans to understand Kashmir

· Stipulation One Over the last 65 years, America has fought four wars with Venezuela over Puerto Rico. It has also fought a continuing 25-year insurgency which has resulted in the deaths of thousands upon thousands of American police and military, and which is entirely kept going by Venezuela. Americans have been ethnically cleansed from Puerto Rico by means of mass terror. Each day, every day, scores of plots by Venezuela and its Puerto Rico puppets to cause mayhem and war against American forces and pro-American Puerto Ricans are exposed. Now Venezuela has turned to the Pakistan/Afghanistan Taliban to help infiltrate Puerto Rico and kill Americans. It has opened contacts with AQ to discuss cooperation.

· Every day, American police, outnumbered and overwhelmed, are confronted by rock-throwing youths whose leaders are guided and funded by Hugo Chavez. No American policeman has been killed so far. But police causalities are already in the hundreds.

· What do our American readers think America will do?

· Negotiate with Hugo? Negotiate with the Taliban? Negotiate with the rock throwers? Go softly softly?

· America has had its share of rioting and minor insurrection. We suggest Americans go back to the 1968 riots and examine the government's reaction, and we suggest Americans look at how the country dealt with the Black Panthers. Multiply the Black Panthers by 1000. Extend the period of the emergency to decades.

· The 1968 rioters, the Black Panthers, the Ruby Ridge lot, the Branch Dravidians, all had legitimate complaints.

· But the means they used were illegitimate. America shot down its rioters, it shot down its insurrectionists, and after there were no more left to kill, America said: "Okay, let's talk about your grievances, but if you pick up a gun again, we promise you a very short trip to the Hot Place Downstairs."

· Was America wrong to act this way? We don't think so. No democratic state can tolerate armed insurrection, particularly when backed by a foreign state.

· Is violence never justified? Do we really need to ask this? Hie back to 1776, and of course violence is justified when there is no other option. Did the revolting settlers have their own government they could take their grievances to? No. Did the Black Panthers have no option except violence? They might have thought so, but objectively, of course they had an option - the one of democratic political action.

· Now extend this scenario to Kashmir, and you'll see what the problem is.

To be continued

0230 GMT July 19, 2010

It's that time again: Please excuse Editor while he goes to his neighbor's house and bangs his head against the stone wall

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/07/taliban_storm_distri.php

· We respectfully disagree with Mr. Patrick Cockburn of the UK Independent. His story is bylined: "At the end of next month, the United States is pulling its combat troops out of Iraq. But the country they are leaving behind is still a barely floating wreck".

· We disagree because it is not America's business to set up Iraq, before leaving, to some standard set by outsiders, including Mr. Cockburn. US deposed Saddam, and brought democracy to Iraq. The country earns $200-million a day from oil exports, it has the potential to displace Saudi as the world's top oil producer. It has a functioning government, functioning armed forces, and functioning police.

· What more should America do, and equally to the point, how can America do more? Iraq belongs not to the US, but to the people of Iraq. For better or ill, their destiny is their business, and they will manage fine.

· Mr. Cockburn is worried about the violence in Iraq. 160 Iraqis have died in the last two weeks. That is an annual rate of 4000 a year, or roughly 13 per 100,000 people. One never knows how these figures are computed: do they count criminal violence, for example?

· But even if they do not, given Iraq since Saddam's rise has always been a violent place, can we say a rate of 13 per 1000 is intolerable? By no means. It may be shocking by comparison to UK's death-by-violence rate, but Iraq never was, and never will be, like the UK. Washington DC has gone through periods when its murder rate approached 100 per 100,000, and Washington DC did not collapse. Similarly, Iraq will not collapse

· Yes, the violence will increase because US presence has been damping down violence. People are waiting for the US to leave before getting out their guns. There are unresolved issues dating back centuries. But what precisely is the US supposed to do about it?

· If Mr. Cockburn feels the US shouldn't have invaded Iraq, we will agree, If he says the US botched its occupation, we agree. But eventually the US did do what it should in 2003 - would have saved itself infinite grief if it had done in 2003 what it began to do in 2007.

· We are not saying Mr. Cockburn is in any way responsible for the sins of his fathers, but here's a statistic to consider. In the Partition of India, up to 1.5-million may have died in ethnic violence in 1946-47, or a rate approaching 120 per 100,000. Did anyone write stories about the British leaving behind a barely floating wreck? The British left. India managed.

· The US is leaving Iraq. The Iraqis will manage. In fact, we'll wager they will manage far better because now they have to take responsibility for themselves.

· http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/america-lowers-the-flag-iraqs-unquiet-peace-2029634.html

· US Army now has 900,000+ radios up three times since 2000, and nearly a rate of 1 per soldier. We are sure this means something; for now simply file this away in your random facts folder. http://defensenews.com/story.php?i=4706848&c=AME&s=TOP

· Somehow today Editor does not today feel strongly about the need to explain why, while many of India's insurgents have legitimate grievances, the Kashmiris do not. That was to be the punch line of Editor's rant on Kashmir: the insurgents and separatists are trying to grab by force advantages that they are not entitled to in a democratic state. Many of India's insurgents, on the other hand, are fighting for rights that they should have. We will return to this theme later. Be assured, dear readers, that your lives will not in the least be impoverished because Editor is holding off on the rest of the Kashmir rant. Your lives may actually improve in that fewer brain cells will die as a consequence of Editor's silence.

0230 GMT July 18, 2010

Understanding Kashmir - I

· Because Indians and Pakistanis are so obsessed with Kashmir and understandably because it has defined their relationship since Independence, it occurs to neither that the rest of the world generally has no clue as to what is the problem between the two states.

· The background is simple. When the British decided to leave India, they ruled much of the county directly, but there were 600+ kingdoms that swore fealty to the British but were in theory independent. If a kingdom was entirely inside proposed Pakistan or proposed India, it had no choice which country it was to join. Thus, Hyderabad, the largest princely state, wanted to be independent. So did Baluchistan in western Pakistan. Just as Hyderabad did not get to be independent, neither did Baluchistan, because they were entirely within one or the other country.

· The only princely states that had a choice were those on the border: they could join whom they wanted. It was not a democratic choice because these were not democratic kingdoms. It was to be purely up to the prince or king to decide which side to join. Kashmir was such a state.

· Kashmir wanted to be independent, but was firmly told this was against the rules: join Pakistan or join India, that is your only choice. When Independence as declared, the ruler of Kashmir, a Hindu, had not decided and was cunningly - so he thought - negotiating with both countries for maximum concessions to join one or the other.

· Pakistan, for whatever reason, assumed that Kashmir was promised to it - the K in Pakistan stands for Kashmir - in the basis it was a Muslim majority state. This one wrong belief is the basis of the trouble.

· When Pakistan saw that the Hindu maharaja was leaning to India, it forced the issue by sending in armed tribals plus regulars, to seize Kashmir. The maharaja panicked, and asked for Indian troops. Nehru said he could do that only if Kashmir acceded to the Union of India - and he was legally right in his stand. So, with the raiders at the gates of Srinager, the Maharaja signed for India, and the rest is history.

· We need to first discuss two Pakistani claims. The first is that the Maharaja did not sign, that the document is a fake. It is not, he did sign. The reason it took time for him to sign is that Nehru told the king he was morally an illegitimate king and while India would sign, it had to be the will of the Kashmiri people. And the will was represented by Sheikh Abdullah, a Muslim, the most popular politician in Kashmir, and who the king had put in the slammer. India made it clear that before India signed, Abdullah had to be freed and had to agree to the accession. Also, once the King signed, it was bye-bye kingy. Kingy would have his privvy purse, and his honors, but he would just another citizen of India.

· Kingy was understandably freaked out, and kept delaying the signing. That is why the agreement took so long to sign.

· The second Pakistan claim is that in the kingdom of Junagarh, a Muslim king ruled a Hindu majority - mirror image of Kashmir. The King's subjects begged for Indian intervention when the king decided for Pakistan. Saying a Hindu majority could not be ruled by an Muslim, India annexed Junagarh.

· The Pakistanis say it is only after this outrage and breach of the independence agreement that they invaded Kashmir. This may be, but they would have invaded regardless, because as far as Pakistan was concerned, Kashmir was destined to be part of Pakistan.

· India ended up with 2/3rds of Kashmir, Pakistan with 1/3rd, when the ceasefire was called for 31 December 1948. How, why and when Nehru agreed to the ceasefire is a long story which need not detain us here. All we need to known at this stage is that there was no military resolution on the ground, and both sides were left holding parts of Kashmir while claiming the whole.

· India had the legal right of it, Pakistan had a moral case. Except: and this is a kicker. Pakistan allowed its Northern Areas no choice. They seceded from Kashmir on Independence, and were annexed by force. This kind of undercuts Pakistan's moral stand that when it invaded, it was at the invitation and will of the people.

· Another complication: we know from history that Pakistan saw itself as a theocratic state and homeland for Muslims, in which no non-Muslims had any role. The non-Muslims, who had lived in the Kashmir for millennia before the Muslim kings came, would have been expelled - as happened with the minorities of Pakistan. This kind of blots the Pakistan claim of moral superiority. Still further, only approved Muslims had the right to live as free citizens equal under the law in Pakistan.

· In due time another Pakistan claim fell by the wayside. This was that Pakistan was the natural homeland for the sub-continent's Muslims. East Bengal did not think so, and seceded in 1971 - both halves had about half each of the population, so East Bengal's departure kind of shot the natural homeland theory to bits.

· Please understand we are not putting down Pakistan Editor expressly concedes that regardless of the legalities, which are clearly in India's favor, Pakistan had a moral claim to Kashmir. But by its own actions starting in 1947, it forfeited that claim. You cannot keep moral superiority when Pakistani Muslims of one ethnic group or another sect different from the ruling elite are declared children of a lesser God, as for example the Northern Kashmiris were, followed by the Bengal Pakistanis who seem to have been in an actual majority in Pakistan.

· We will discuss events from 1948 in a different post. For now, readers need to keep only this in mind. If India lets Kashmir go simply because it is Muslim majority, the very existence of India as a secular state is undermined and you are paving the way for the destruction of India. There are many Muslim-majority nations that could be carved from India - just as there are Sikh majority regions, Naga majority regions, etc etc, to say nothing of the tribals of India and the outcastes of India and so on. Americans have been through this with their own civil war, and they are going to go through it as Hispanics gradually become the majority in America, So, Editor always tells Americans: you want India to let Kashmir go, then you please be prepared to say the civil war was wrong and the south had a right to secede, and you must let the Indian nations secede if that is they want, and if tomorrow Hispanic majorities in southern California, the South West, and Florida decide they want to be independent states, you're going to have to let them. If you insist the US is one nation - under God no less - then please don't lecture the Indians about letting Kashmir go. because India too is one nation under the Constitution. God is not invoked because Indians have many goods, best to avoid complication by leaving the Old Boy out of things.

· Now turn to Pakistan. If Pakistan concedes that a Muslim majority in a given geographical area can live in India, the entire rationale for Partition collapses. The rationale was Muslims will never get a fair shake in Hindu India so they need their own country. So Pakistan also cannot afford to let Kashmir go.

· So you have a zero-sum game, for stakes that involve the survival of the two nations. That is why to say the two nations are being silly and the problem is so easily solved is to fail to understand the real situation: it's about a lot more than Kashmir, and if one side wins, the other loses.

To be continued

(Readers are doubtless asking: why do we have to suffer because Editor doesn't have a date for Saturday evening? Why does the Editor have to go on and on? What is our fault in all this? Editor's response: he is not going to get a date for Saturday evening - EVER. So just suck it up and stop whining. No one said life is fair. If it was fair that Editor would have five dates each Saturday night.)

0230 GMT July 17, 2010

Even paranoids have enemies.... (II)

· Called Verizon to say no one came on July 14, fourteen days after I reported my line was out. Nice lady while checking what happened mentioned I might like Verizon's FiOS, whatever that is. Nice lady had decency not to push the point after I said I'd be happy just to have a phone that works. The checking up did no good, no one called from Verizon.

· Firefox repeatedly said it could not connect Editor to the GMail server. To access GMail, Editor had to switch to IE. Forgot to mention: several times a day Firefox says it is already running, you must close the existing window, except there is no window to close. Then you have to a Control-Alt-Delete to get to Task Manager, hunt down Firefox in the list of processes, turn it off, and try again.

· Noticed tonight GMail, which wanted me to do the usual arithmetic before it sent my email, prefaced its intrusive action by: "GMail helps you in so many ways..."? Really? Name one. GMail.

· Trying to do college homework, cannot run problem simulation because the message says "You do not have Adobe Flash 5. Download Adobe Flash 5". When Editor tries to do that, nothing happens, then you have to go to a long list of instructions which don't work either, Editor thought: wait a minute, what version of Adobe Flash do I have? Turns out its Adobe Flash 10, but the simulation wants Adobe 5. So Editor is still thinking: do they honestly want me to download Adobe Flash 5? Can I even risk downloading it? Still thinking...

Even President Obama has a friend...

· ...BP's oil cap seems to have worked. The test pressure is up to 6700-psi, whereas BP wants 7,500-psi to be sure there are no leaks. The lower pressure doesn't necessarily mean there is still a leak: it's possible that the oil reservoir is losing pressure. So the word is "cautious hope"; another 24-hour of testing, at least, is needed to be sure the spill is ended.

So this is where your Wal Mart clothes come from...

· ...Bangladesh garment workers are asking for a rise in the minimum wage from $36/month to $72/month. Factory owners say if wage goes to $50, forget $72, they'll have to start closing down. At $72 they'll all be done in.

· In case you're wondering: one room in a slum costs $35-$50/month.

· http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/17/business/global/17textile.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&hp

Cause and effect...

· So al-Shabab of Somalia killed 72 Uganda civilians watching the world Cup in retaliation for Uganda sending 3200 troops to the African Union force in Mogadishu (sorry, in a couple of street corners in Mogadishu. So Uganda says it will send 2000 more troops if asked.

· Meanwhile, the 8000+ authorized strength force has an actual strength of 5000: the other troops are from Burundi. No one else wants to send troops. Even the neighbors don't want to send troops.

· Also, more cause an effect: US pushed OBL out of Afghanistan, AQ moved to Pakistan. US pushed AQ out of Iraq, so now AQ is in Yemen and Somalia.

Oh the injustice of it all...

· Remember Saddam's Foreign Minister Tariq Aziz? He has been in US custody all these years. Now US has handed over its last detention facility to the Iraqis, Mr. Aziz included.

· His family says it's a death sentence because he won't get the medical care he was getting from the US.

· Wait a minute, people, we thought you'd be happy the US is going. anyway, what is the big deal? Mr. Aziz was part and parcel of the murderous Saddam regime, so what's a death sentence among friends?

No good choices department...

· General Petraeus is pushing local militias in Afghanistan See, he says, they worked in Iraq. Problem One: Afghanistan had local militias before the Americans arrived, and the US insisted on disarming all of them because it wanted an end to the rule of the warlords. Problem Number Two: the Iraqi militias worked, but they solved an American problem: they helped get rid of AQI. Minute US started handing over to the Baghdad Government, Iraqi government started reneging on agreements to give the Sunni militiamen jobs and started withholding payments. Anyone want to guess what the fate of the remaining Sunni militiamen is going to be?

· As for the Pakistan tribal militias, we know how effective they've been. Someone forms an anti-Taliban militia, next thing three or four or six tribal militia leaders are dead.

· We aren't trying to be flip here. That's why we headed this blog entry "No good choices". But you know, there is a rule about situations where there are no good choices. You don't go in and get yourself stuck even more. You get out.

0230 GMT July 16, 2010

Even paranoids have enemies....

· Verizon did not turn up to fix Editor's line, after telling him on June 30 they would come on July 14, and after reminding him on July 13 they were coming.

· After a certain time at night, before GMail sends off Editor's email, it insists on giving him six simple arithmetic problems which must be done right, or else "its bed and water for you" and email is not sent. Talk about Nanny State. Dear GMail, I don't drink and I get lots of sleep, so how about getting the heck out of my life, thanks, and letting me take responsibility for my own emails.

· Everyday on Hotmail there are from 5-10 emails saying "verify your account or it will be suspended." You'd think Hotmail would have enough smarts to block these messages, apparently not.

· Between 1 and 5 times a day Firefox crashes, and then when you get it back, it says "Well, this is embarrassing..." because it cant restore your last session. Dear Firefox, how about sparing us your embarrassment and doing something about this problem.

· Since Editor upgraded to Word 2007, even though he has asked the program to automatically use Acrobat to open PDFs, Word insists on trying to open them and of course cannot. One has to download to a temporary folder and open from there.

· Editor has asked Firefox to block Adobe updates, but Firefox wont block the interrupt "Update available" and then when Editor tries to close the Adobe updater, everything freezes.

· RCN charges Editor $37/month for a cable internet connection - the amount has gone up over the past few years from $17, and when you ask why, RCN says "we need to pay for investments to give you better service.". Editor is supposed to have a 1.5MB connection, and the download speed has been steadily going down from a maximum of 200KB when he first got the service, to 60KB. The reason, of course, is that for some reason more people on Editor's street are buying RCN. Flee, fools, flee, save yourselves!

· Editor has been using PayPal for seven years, in all this time he has managed to get one email reply to a question or problem.

· Editor has been trying to find out from Sallie Mae where he can find the list of foreign universities Sallie Mae accepts as legitimate programs enrolling in which permits student loan deferment. Each time Editor sends an email, the reply comes: "To apply for a private loan, call xxxxxxxxx". Each time Editor replies "I don't want a private loan, I just want to know which universities in India I can enroll at and still qualify for student loan deferment as being in school at least half time." Back comes the message: "To apply for a private loan....". On the telephone no one has the faintest idea what you're asking, except one young lady did say the list of approved foreign schools have codes starting with G.

· Oh yes, Sallie Mae has outsourced its call center to India, and - you've guessed it - they can't understand Editor's accent and Editor can't understand their accent. This is not being racist: Editor is of Indian origin.

· The other day Editor interviewed for a job at a South East Washington DC school and was asked if he thought he'd have trouble with the accent. Editor said yes, when he originally started teaching in low income schools he did have trouble with the kids' accents, but they were very good humored about it and taught him their language. Editor did not get the job: turns out the school was asking did he think the kids could understand him. But since they cannot ask that outright, they asked in code. Well, everyone's code is different, and Editor didn't get it. Besides what are you supposed to say? "After 30 years in America I would hope the students can understand me" and then get labeled as a smarty pants?

US Marines battle Taliban for control of Qila Musa
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/07/us_marines_battle_th.php

A nice article of a ground's eye view of the war. But we do need to remind ourselves this is Year 4 in the Battle for Qila Musa, and in another few months it will be start of Year 10 in Afghanistan. As always with this war, too little, too late.

· British UAV The British have come up with a stealthy UAV fighter - first flight next year - which they say will operate autonomously. http://www.gizmag.com/taranis-ucav-unveiled/15693/ It will have two internal weapons bays, for air-to-air missile and surface attack weapons. Naturally the autonomous bit is causing people to worry - who wants an armed, stealthed UAV capable of intercontinental ranges going rouge?

· Not a problem, says the company. It will be under the control over a human team at all times.

· Letter from Shawn Dudley I read the article about suggesting we let the Pushtuns keep SW Afghanistan. Effectively this is the same as letting the Kurds keep 1/3 of Iraq (which we certainly have no trouble with). Basically I'd love to give them an ultimatum to give up AQ and in return we'll recognize Wazaristan as an independent state (and to hell with the Pakistanis). Unfortunately IMHO the Taliban is so hooked on AQ's cash and influence that it's unlikely we'll separate the two so easily.

· Afghanistan made more sense when the war was being run by the Green Berets. The objectives were limited and our footprint was very small, it worked quite well. The problems came when everyone else wanted in and the SpecOps forces were increasingly pushed out of the war by the conventional military, state dept, NATO, etc. Suddenly this became a big old crusade to westernize Afghanistan (which is sort of like colonization but supposedly nicer), and our size became our liability.

· The trouble is now virtually every US politician of note has put on a marker saying "we can't lose" in Afghanistan, so it's become a face issue with us. Add to that if and when the Taliban take back the country that they're likely to go about the whole Khmer Rouge route on anyone who supported us and it's unlikely to end well. Like Vietnam we'll draw the wrong lessons and then forget about CI for another generation or two, even though the types of conflicts in failed states that we're getting into more and more need CI or a similar approach.

· To me "Fighting to Win" means attacking the enemy at its center of gravity, in the Northwest Frontier. Fancy welfare measures with the locals that worked better in Iraq won't work here, and besides despite all of the CI we did in Iraq it didn't go our way until we drew the sword and started killing en masse, whether it was in Fallujah or in Sadr City. Of course this means invading Pakistan, which pretty much is my conclusion to the whole affair.

· Editor's comment Someone told Editor that Osama Bin Laden paid the Taliban government $10-million to keep him in their country, and this was about half of the Taliban's revenues at the time. Nowdays Taliban has opium revenues and other rackets - such as protection money from NATO . So $10-million from US wont do it. On the other hand, US is spending what - a quarter-billion dollars a day in Afghanistan? We think a decent deal can be made to persuade Taliban not to let Afghanistan become a base for overseas terrorism.

0230 GMT July 15, 2010

· Mandeep Bajwa has identified the Indian divisions that are entering pre-deployment training prior to starting operations against the Maoist rebels. 6, 23, 27, and 54 Divisions are involved. Mandeep says that aside from setting up field intelligence operations in the affected area, the Army is setting up logistics bases.

· Mandeep emphasizes that the go order has not been given. Nonetheless, we suggest this is now only a formality. Neither the Government of India nor the army are in the habit of spending time and money preparing for theoretical contingencies.

· One object of delaying the go order may be to give the Maoists one last chance: the scale of preparations will be evident to them. How the Maoists will react, we don't know. No one in their right mind wants to take on the Army. This is not a matter of ambushing and massacring helpless, underarmed, and undertrained police units. Moreover, though eventually Rashtriya Rifles battalions will take over from the Army, the Army is sending its first-line combat units.

· If push comes to shove, we assume the Maoists will strike back in the urban areas, which they are already reconnoitering and in which they are already attempting to set up cadres.

· Meanwhile, the Kashmir insurgency is heating up again as Mandeep and Editor predicted last winter. It takes very little to dissatisfy the Kashmiris, who have for decades become experts at forcing concessions from the Central Governments. This time, some factions are annoyed at the election of the incumbent Chief Minister - the son and grandson of former chief ministers, talk about dynastic politics. So they have taken to the streets, and it doesn't take much to get the security forces to retaliate with excessive force. When you're 10 policemen trapped in an alley with hundreds of youth throwing rocks and Molotov cocktails, its easy to become frightened and open fire. That gives the protest planners their martyrs and leads to more protests.

· Indian intelligence has intercepts of terror group leaders discussing how they need more martyrs. This is no surprise. As usual, the Indian authorities are going out of their way not to provoke the protesters, and as usual, the protestors are setting the terms of the engagement. They retain the initiative on all counts.

· The army has been called back, in some areas where it has been absent for 20 years, and many parts of Kashmir are locked-down.

· All of this is no doubt warming the hearts of the terror groups, the separatists, and the groups that want to join Pakistan. In Pakistan Kashmir if you engage in the same tactics as these groups do in Indian Kashmir, there is no softly softly. There is no discussion. There is no compromise. There are no political solutions. if you get too troublesome, you get taken away and its good bye to you.

· This is not a debate the Editor likes to get into, but he would like to remind the Government of India - and the well-wishers of the terrorists, separatists, anti-incumbents and so on - that while everyone has a right to say what they want in a democracy, no one has the right to do the smallest thing to support separatists and terrorists. It's called waging war against the state.

· In a hard state like the US, you don't wage war against the state, because you will either end up shot, or spending the rest of your life in a windowless 8-square-meters cage with yourself for company.

· In a soft state like India - well, this Kashmir nonsense has been going on for sixty-three years. Government of India still thinks it can wear down the separatists. But it cannot, because behind every stand the Taliban and they will not be worn down. That's because they suffer no consequences. When their current crop of infiltrators and agitators is neutralized, they simply train up another bunch, while sitting safe-and-sound, on ISI's payroll, well behind the combat zone. So in Kashmir you can get away with things for ever.

· Please notice of the four divisions Mandeep mentioned: one is a key army HQ reserve, two belong to a strike corps, and one is a China-front division. Does this look like India is maintaining the option to attack Pakistan?

0230 GMT July 13, 2010

· Reader Sanjith Menon sends an article on Afghanistan It is by Mr. K. Subhramanyam, who was Editor's mentor when Editor was in India. http://www.indianexpress.com/news/end-of-the-game/645627/0

· Former US ambassador to India, former deputy national security adviser in the Bush administration and now senior fellow at the RAND Corporation, Robert Blackwill has outlined a new strategy for the US to deal with the Afghan Taliban, at minimum cost to American and allied forces. In one sense, it can be interpreted as the inexorable strategic logic that is bound to propel US action, sooner or later. Simply put, the strategy suggests that the US accept a de facto partition of Afghanistan between Pashtun and non-Pashtun areas, concentrate its forces in non-Pashtun areas, and maintain an effective air force including drones and special forces to strike relentlessly at the Taliban leadership in Pashtun areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan.

· Blackwill is compelled to advocate this strategy, given Pakistan’s double game in dealing with the Afghan Taliban, corruption and the increasing alienation of the Karzai government, the inefficiency and combat-unworthiness of the Afghan forces being raised, and the tribal divisions in Pashtun Afghanistan. He argues that American and allied casualties are not commensurate with the results achieved, and are not likely to be, despite surges of various magnitudes. So he advocates adopting new policy goals for Afghanistan that, realistically, have a better chance of succeeding. This means accepting a de facto partition enforced by US and NATO air power and special forces, the Afghan army and international partners. The US should retain an active combat role in Afghanistan for years to come and should not accept permanent Taliban control of the south.

· Editor's comment However logical Ambassador's argument may be, he is only one of hundreds of players on the issue of Afghan policy, and it's by no mean clear he has any influence beyond the think tank circuit.

· We've given our solution earlier: negotiate with the Taliban, let them take Afghanistan, make them our friends, and work with them to keep AQ out.

· Remember, US had no issues with Taliban before 9/11. After 9/11 the issue became the Taliban would not hand over OBL, saying US should give them the evidence and they'd try him. Is that so different from what US did in the case of the Cuban terrorist who brought down an airliner over Venezuela, sought asylum in the US, and US government refused to hand him to the Cubans or Venezuelans? Okay, so the man killed - what? 100 people and not 3500 people. But its the principle. US still has no strategic issues with the Taliban.

· To say "if we leave AQ will have a base" is illogical on two grounds. One, US will leave, whether it wants to or not, simply because - hello, people - the Taliban live in Afghanistan and they will wait us out. Two, if US can cut deals with the Soviets, the Chinese, the Libyans, the North Vietnamese, the North Koreans, and is all the time trying to strike deals with Iran, what's wrong with dealing with the Taliban?

· Worth keeping in mind: AQ may have killed 3500 Americans, but in the Korean War, the Chinese killed ten times as many Americans: the North Koreans were Chinese puppets, the deaths they caused are directly attributable to China. The the Chinese were responsible for tens of thousands of American deaths in Indochina: it was their weapons, their money, their food, their aid, plus aid and arms given by USSR via China that kept the North Vietnamese going. and of course, the North Vietnamese also directly killed tens of thousands of Americans.

· Roman Polanski Let's first agree the man is a scumbag and, and that that he is an "artist" (Austin Powers quotes) does not excuse him from breaking the law. But what happened in Switzerland has nothing to do with Polanski's guilt, which no one has questioned. All that the Swiss court wanted was US court records that would show if he had served his sentence, or not, as agreed in his plea bargain. He says he did. And the US court says? Nothing. It wouldn't hand over the papers.

· There can be two explanations, and we don't think the first is true. That is, the US court was so arrogant it believed it had to just show a warrant for his arrest, with no explanation of why the case was not pursued for so many years, and the Swiss were obligated to hand him over. This makes no sense. The second explanation is that Polanski is right when he says he served his sentence, and if the US court had given the Swiss the requested papers, the case for his extradition would have collapsed.

· We agree that all the yammering from the Euro side about Polanski being a persecuted artist is nonsense, and highly annoying. You definitely want to send the man to do hard time after listening to the Euros carry on and on. Yet, the US does need to do a better job of explaining why it let the case go for so many years.

· Editor has had the misfortune of seeing a Polanski movie, Repulsion. He has a rule about avoiding European movies, but he was trying to get close to a young lady of considerable physical charm - spiritually close, of course, and she insisted Editor take her to the movie. Well, Editor was truly repulsed - and so was the young lady to the extent she did not let Editor get sufficiently close - spiritually, of course.

· As for as Editor is concerned, the Euros can keep Mr. Polanski.

· BTW, here's quotes from an article on Mr. Polanski, in the Huffington Post, after his 2009 arrest: "Film writer Molly Haskell said that at the core of Polanski's work is the "image of the anesthetized woman, the beautiful, inarticulate, and possibly even murderous somnambulate." And "A movie all women should watch -- his masterpiece "Repulsion."" And "Roman Polanski knows women because he understands men. He knows both sexes because he understands the games both genders play, either consciously or instinctively. He understands the perversions formed from such relations and translates them into visions that are erotic, disturbing, humorous and, most important, allegorical in their potency. One should not take Polanski's films literally, for they are often heightened versions of what occurs naturally in our world: desire, perversion, repulsion." http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kim-morgan/roman-polanski-understand_b_301292.html

· May be in your world, sicko. As far as Editor is concerned, the movie shows only the director is a woman hater.

0230 GMT July 12, 2010

· Somali's al-Shabab claims Uganda bombings 70 people were killed in two separate bombings as crowds watched the soccer World Cup. Shabab has been threatening anyone contributing to the African Union force in Somalia - or, more accurately, in one corner of one suburb of Mogadishu.

· While we'd like more information, our suspicion is that the bombings will have an effect opposite to the one Shabab wants. Uganda is not a western country but an African one. As such it used to a level of hardship and brutality that would break most western countries. We think that the bombings will only lead Uganda to intensify its mission.

· One of the things we want to know is how seriously Ugandans take religion. There is almost no one in the country that claims to have no religion; two-third of people are Christians and one sixth are Muslims, with the remaining one-sixth believing in other faiths such as local religions. if Ugandans see the Shabab attacks as Muslims against Christians, there is going to be no backing down by Uganda. The notion that you must stand up and fight if your religion is threatened is not a concept in the West's book, but for most of the non-west, religion is a very powerful force.

· India versus China We learn that Tata, India's first or second biggest company depending on what the stock market is doing that day, paid some farmers almost $200,000 an acre for land for a factory it is expanding in Gujarat. Now let's ask ourselves: when is the last time that a Chinese company paid anything like that sum of money. We are guessing never. In China a factory needs land, the Government gives insignificant payment, and if you get into a "heck no, we won't go" mode, Government will simply pick you up and throw you off the property. There is no discussion, no hearing, no options.

· The Government of West Bengal acquired 400-hectares of land for a new Tata factory. The people didn't think they had been fairly paid. By constant agitation and demonstrations which the state government tried to break by force, leading to several deaths, the people drove Tata away. Now lets try to think of the last time a Chinese provincial government requisitioned land and the owners successfully stood up to the government and forced it to back down. We suspect never.

· When people who have been to India and China compare the two countries, they invariably sneer at what they see is India's backwardness particularly its shabby infrastructure and streets overflowing with beggars. Somewhere at the back of their minds they know India is a democracy with the rule of law and China is a totalitarian state. But this does not seem to matter to many people - and Editor needs to be honest here - 99% of the Indian elite regard Indian democracy as a hindrance. They'd rather have slums nowhere within sight and four-lane expressways and streets free of beggers.

· It's estimated that lack of infrastructure costs India 2-3% in its growth rate each year. In other words, it could have the same growth rate as China if it had proper infrastructure. But that would mean depriving ordinary folks of their rights. Are we being naive when we believe that future historians will praise India and condemn China on this issue?

· By the way, before someone writes in to say the government of Delhi is forcibly removing people to "improve" the surroundings for the Commonwealth Games. Much of this removal is of people who have illegally occupied government land. Civil rights people should not worry overmuch: once the games finish, the illegal squatters will be back. The Delhi government cannot afford to keep them alienated: slum dwellers or billionaires, all adult Indians have the right to vote and you can be sure the slum dwellers will be first in line at the voting booths next election.

· PS: there's more of them than there are of the elite. Lots, lots more.

0230 GMT July 11, 2010

US begins linking Pakistan to specific terror groups operating in Afghanistan

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/07/us_military_begins_t.php

· While this may have significance to the politicals, in military terms it means precisely nothing that the US has come out in the open for the first time regarding Pakistan's support of the Afghan insurgency. That support has been known for years; US felt it had no choice but to keep quiet so as not to alienate whatever support it was getting from Pakistan. If, however, the US thinks by naming names it can put pressure on Pakistan to cut its ties with Afghan insurgents, it is sadly mistaken. From the early 1990s, when Pakistan created the Taliban consequent on the withdrawal of the soviet Union from Afghanistan, its support to the Taliban in Afghanistan is 100% based on Pakistan's assessment of its security needs.

· Just as US will not defer its national security needs to anyone's opinion, Pakistan will pursue its objectives at all costs. If US brings unbearable pressure on Pakistan, all that will happen is Pakistan will lie low - as it did in the period 2002-05, and strike back when it sees its chance.

· But even maximum US pressure is not going to work now. US managed to spook President General Musharraf into "supporting" US aims, but by now Pakistan is expert at making the US piper dance to its tune. US has already severely destabilized Pakistan by forcing it, in limited ways, to fight the Taliban.

· If Pakistan gives in to more US pressure, US might get the window it needs to escape Afghanistan, but as sure as the sun rises, the further destabilization of Pakistan will create blowback which will make the 1979-90 Afghan War blowback look like kindergarten games.

· US's problem all along in Afghanistan has been too many extra-smart people running and influencing policy, to the extent that all common sense has been abandoned. We urge the US to think twice about messing up Pakistan just to get an exit from Afghanistan.

· We want the Americans to take a deep breath, and slowly repeat after us: "The Pakistanis have repeatedly shown they are smart than us; it's no disgrace because they live in that part of the world and Afghanistan to them is a matter of life and death. To us its just one more front in the GWOT and in maintaining our position as global hegemon. Thus, in the end the Pakistanis will outthink us. So let us keep that in mind as we work through our exit from the theatre."

· Full disclosure Editor is not Pakistani but Indian, and since 1970 has consistently maintained Pakistan's secession from India must be reversed, by force if neccessary. So Editor is not making excuses for Pakistan. The American part of him simply feels bad that the Pakistanis have outwitted us for nine years, and unless we shape up, will continue to make fools of us. The first step in dealing with the Pakistanis is to stop falling for their "Yes Sir No Sir You are so great Sir We love and respect Uncle Sam Sir and we are honored to be your trustworthy partners Sir." To win, you cannot assume your adversary is an idiot.

· European disarmament: and so it begins Of course, "so it begins" is relative because compared to the armies Europe maintained during the Cold War, we are already down to a disarmed stage. But thanks to the global financial crisis, more major cuts are already being announced. The Germans, for example, are thinking of cutting 40,000 troops from their 100,000 soldier army. At 60,000 it will be a sixth of their Cold War army. Reader Marcopetroni sends us an article by Gianandrea Gaiani writing in Il Sole 24 Ore. http://www.presseurop.eu/en/content/article/269741-austere-disarmament

· Emergency measures enacted to reduce public spending and deficits are now being applied to the Defence budgets. Pulling out of foreign missions, reductions in weapons maintenance, and a decrease in military purchases are therefore the order of the day, at the expense of efficiency, notes Il Sole 24 Ore. \

· In the United States, military spending is considered a springboard for the revival of the economy and Congress has approved $726 billion (€608bn) for the 2011 budget which, setting aside the $159 billion (€132 billion) that will fund the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts, leaves the Pentagon with $23 billion ($19bn) more than it had this year. China and India continue to register increases in spending as well. However, serious difficulties are surfacing in Europe, where the Greek crisis has driven governments to measures that enforce drastic, if not always well-considered, cuts in the field of defence.

· In an effort to create savings, Athens has reduced military spending by 25% and will pull its contingent out of Kosovo. While Portugal takes similar action, Austria plans cuts of 10% (€1.67 bn) which will penalise maintenance work and training. Berlin also intends over the next three years to cut €4.3 billion off its budget of €31 billion with the closing of several military bases, a reduction of at least 40 thousand troops, the grounding of several Typhoon jet fighters and Tornado bombers, as well as the scrapping of patrol boats and submarines. Cuts are also foreseen for the MEADS antimissile defence project, for Nh 90 helicopters and A-400M cargo planes.

· Similar decisions are being made in Spain, where additional reductions to the cut of 6.4% already in place, could compromise the country’s acquisition of planes and combat vehicles. France, with a budget of €32 billion, had put in place a considerable project to restructure its defence in 2008, but is now looking at cuts estimated between 2 and 5 billion euros spanning three years.

· Under the austerity of the new Cameron-Clegg government, Britain will be discarding older equipment (tanks, artillery, helicopters and aircrafts), reducing or delaying new acquisitions in order to save at least £7 billion (€8.4bn) over five years with a budget of £36.8 billion (€44.4bn) as of this year. It looks as though projects already under contract (such as the purchase of two new aircraft carriers) will continue to move forward, as their cancellation could result in penalty fees to industries concerned, thereby making the savings drive futile.

· The dilemma all of Europe now faces is that budget cuts will primarily effect army personnel, in the areas of training, equipment maintenance and infrastructure. The risk is putting in place new, sophisticated weaponry without the resources to operate them, as is already the case in Italy, where funds are insufficient to repair damaged equipment in Afghanistan or to fuel jets and ships.

· Throughout Europe, the needs of troops stationed in Afghanistan, especially those engaged in counter-insurgency, has become a priority. This choice, while justified, risks sacrificing the indispensable preparation that is necessary to deploy sufficient forces in response to future threats, even those of a conventional nature. It is for this reason that Nato’s Secretary General, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, has warned that disarmament by allied forces “could threaten international stability and therefore limit prospects for growth.”

0230 GMT July 10, 2010

· Goodbye Palestine According to UK Independent, an Israeli groups reports that 42% of the West Bank is effectively controlled by Israeli settlers. And of course, more is taken over each year. It doesn't seem to us that a viable Palestine state can be set up. Remember, Hamas owns Gaza and its not going to give it up. Israel has seized a fifth of privately owned land in the West Bank - something even the Israeli Supreme Court says is illegal. If the Government of Israel is happy to defy its own Supreme Court, we can realistically say goodbye to Palestine.

· Would be interesting to know how much of Jerusalem Israelis have actually seized.

· Personally, given the way the United States was put together we don't think Americans have any locus standii to tell the Israelis they can't occupy Arab land. Our problem is not that the Israelis since 1947 have taken more and more from the Arabs. That's the way history is. Our problem is the way the Israelis paint themselves as the victims of Arabs.

· On a parenthetical note we must state that we agree with the Israeli Government when it says it cannot make a deal with Hamas at any cost just to secure the release of the young soldier held by Hamas. Israel has several times agreed to the release of hundreds of Palestinians in exchange for its one soldier, but Hamas keeps upping the ante.

· There comes a time when the state has to say: "Its unfortunate, but our one soldier is not priceless to the extent we should be willing to hand over the keys of the kingdom for his release."

· The soldier's family has been leading demonstrations against the Government to bring pressure on the Government to get him released at any cost.

· We'd like to ask the soldier's family one question. Do your rights to get your boy back supersede the rights of the your fellow citizens who have suffered at the hands of the Palestine terrorists you now want released in exchange?

· Not that the soldier's family has any interest in getting advice from us, but nonetheless we'd like to suggest the family remind itself they are not Americans but Israelis. Americans have a grand notion that their individual rights take precedence over everyone elses. Israel, however, was founded on the basis of shared sacrifice. If you insist on your rights taking precedence over the rights of your fellows, you are simply contributing to the early demise of Israel.

· Sad facts from an article Intel founder Andy Grove wrote recently for Business Week The US computer industry today employs fewer people than it did in 1975. We now have about 200,000 computer industry jobs. A single Taiwan company, Foxconn, employs 800,000. Foxconn has 250,000 people making Apple products. apple itself employs 25,000. So goodbye computers.

· US used to be world leader in batteries, which are becoming a big industry as we turn to electric cars. If the approximately 90,000 jobs worldwide in lithium-ion batteries, about 1000 are in the Us. Goodbye batteries.

· US was world leader un photovolatics, some we need for alternate clean energy. US companies making machines to produce photovolatics export 10-times as many machines to China as they sell to Americans. And how long does anyone think the Chinese will continue buying these machines from us? 5 years? Its goodbye photovolatics.

· People say "oh but that's fine, these are low paying jobs. Let them go overseas and we'll keep the high paying jobs." Pardon, sir and ma'am. Which high paying jobs are you talking about? Grove says in 50 years the cost of creating an American job has gone up 33-times in 2010 money. In 2000 dollars, the GDP in the last 50 years has gone up five times. And there's twice as many people. and in 1960 the majority of women did not work outside the house. So you probably need three times as many jobs as you did in 1960. I hope sir and ma'am are seeing where this is leading: today you have a small percentage of workers with good jobs, many more with marginal jobs, and this is scary, a growing number with NO jobs.

· Sir and ma'am love to talk about America is now a knowledge economy. But what is so special about Americans that only they can create knowledge jobs? The honest truth is, if US didn't use visas to keep out Indians, within 30 years Indians would be doing most of the knowledge jobs in the US for less money.

· When you think of India's knowledge workers, you think of call centers, right? That is so yesterday. Here are three things Editor personally knows that are being contracted to India: medical diagnosis, architectural planning, and legal work. No one has yet estimated how many knowledge jobs India is going to take away from the States, but here's a simple factoid. For every American, there are four Indians. The Indian educational system is far more rigorous than the American. Today you can say - for example, this is a made up figure - that only one in a hundred Indians can match Americans in knowledge work, But what is America going to do when that number becomes one in 50, then one in 25, then 1 in 10, and so on till there are 4 Indian knowledge workers for every American?

· Meanwhile, back to India. Here is something that is truly an eye opener to those of us who grew up in the Indians of the 1940s, 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s and think of India as a poor country. The Indians recently told a Ukranian woman who had landed in a job in India for $25,000 a year that they couldn't give her a visa. To get a visa to work in India, you have to have a job paying more than $25,000, and also no Indian company can hire more than 1% of its work force overseas. This is to stop foreigners from taking jobs away from Indians.

· The woman went to court. First, the notion that a foreigner would go to court against the Government of India on a visa matter is absolutely alien to us old timers. Second, the court took the case - this is even more alien a concept. The woman told the court her constitutional rights were being violated - she is not an Indian and was not in India, She was arguing about a work visa, We'd have expected the court to say: "India's per capita income is $1,300 and half the country lives on less than $750 a year. We are a poor country. You are a European, go look for work in Europe."

· The Bombay High Court gave notice to the Union of India to answer the woman's charges within three weeks.

· Here's the kicker: Government of India declined to answer. Instead it quietly withdrew the requirement of $25,000 and told the woman she would get her visa.

· Editor is still amazed, a week later.

· But that isn't why he mentions this. Think about it: how long before Indians start taking the US Government to court complaining the American visa system is a restraint on international trade and that it prevents Indian knowledge workers from working in the States? Then what are sir and ma'am going to do? Find jobs as metrobus operators in India?

· In the unlikely event you are too happy, read this Independent UK article on training in Afghanistan. The total security forces rated capable of independent action is 34,000. So there you have it: the Coalition after nine years has managed to train 34,000 effectives. Great job, Coalition. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/revealed-how-strategy-to-train-afghan-forces-is-in-deep-trouble-2023988.html

· Reader Afan Kan writes to say that Pakistani courts in 2009-2010 cleared more cases than were registered, showing that the notoriously slow pace of South Asian justice can be speeded up. 3-million cases were cleared, and 2.6-million new cases were filled, leaving a backlog of 1.3-million.http://www.onlinenews.com.pk/details.php?id=164420 If the Pakistan courts can maintain this pace, the backlog could be cleared in 4 years. By South Asian standards that is warp speed.

· Reader Luxembourg sends a compilation of General Mattis's better known sayings http://www.theatlanticwire.com/features/view/feature/16-Most-Hair-Rising-General-Mattis-Quotes-1573

0230 GMT July 9, 2010

Progress in Musa Qila

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/07/_musa_qala_district.php

· This report shows insurgencies are winnable. Yet, NATO committed several thousand troops to this district for years, and as the article makes clear, while there is hope, matters could easily deteriorate again if the pressure is lifted. But Musa Qila is just one of 400 Afghan districts. One way you pacify so large a country with limited resources is to protect the main cities while training local forces to take over security. When they are ready, you start spreading out, pacifying more territory, and training more local forces to take over. The reason Afghanistan is lost is because when the Taliban were on the run 2001-2005, Coalition took things easy, and we thought the war was won.

· But the Taliban regrouped in Pakistan, and it should be clear five years later that there's not a darn thing we can do about Pakistan. So this was the second big mistake. The third big mistake is that yes, there are exceptions like Musa Qila, but the training of local forces has failed - for reasons we've analyzed in the blog. Look how fragile the gains are in Musa Qila: the district police commander has 200 men spread over 10 posts. The Taliban have 600, and can, of course, deploy many more for a big operation. If the Taliban wipe out 2-3 police posts, the police will disintegrate. Because Coalition lost control of time, there is no going back. General Petraeus cannot pretend like he is starting the war today and has all the time he needs.

· At heart, everyone knows that if General Petraeus truthfully came out and said: "I need 20 more years", he won't get even one year, because the public backlash at home will be so extreme. So what's happening is not that General Petraeus is there to win, as he maintains. He is there to participate in a sham designed to save the Administration's face, to give the illusion of victory for a period long enough for the Coalition to scamper away, saying "We won!"

· Incidentally, except for the British, the other partners are not going to wait for the illusion of victory. They are leaving, period.

· It is at times like that a country must bemoan it has such shallow, weak leaders. It is not Obama's War: it is America's war, and everyone is to blame, Democratic, Republican, the military high command, the administration, yes, even you and me.

· Why you and me? Because thought to demonstrate our patriotism at second hand: we have no problems with letting the military fight this war, even though we know they cannot win, and even though you and I were not willing to make the sacrifices to win.

· It is the same with the politicians, of whatever political ilk. Both Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress are willing to fight to the last American soldier. This is true also of the Main Stream Media, and America's intellectual elite. It is shameful in the extreme, a colossal dishonesty that is just another indicator that America's high tide is now ebbing.

· Courage requires honesty. Honesty dictates that we should realize politically we are not prepared to do what is neccessary to win, so we should call the boys and girls home. But we are now a nation of cowards. You don't see a million people in the street because 99.5% of this country is not involved in this war. As for us showing responsibility for the ones that volunteered: our reaction is, "hey, they volunteered. They wanna be there."

· When you and I refuse to do your duty - or even see we should do your duty, but it's okay for the guy down the road to die because he volunteered, as a country we have degenerated beyond redemption. It is precisely because that guy volunteered that we have an extra duty to see his sacrifice is not in vain. And right now, for the last eight years starting with the infamous Rummy Rumsfeld, we have not done our duty to the volunteer.

· Since we were never prepared to fight to win, our duty requires us to demand the troops be brought home. Yes, in theory wars can be limited. But then they go on forever. Don't believe us? Ask India. You want to end a war? Then you have to do what the Sri Lankans did, and what General Mattis has in the past said has to be done: you have to kill the enemy.

· The more educated the US military's senior officers become, the less effective soldiers they make. All this fancy CI doctrine and psychobabble ignores one thing: if the other guy is willing to die for his belief, if you are not as equally prepared to die for yours, he's going to win. Even in CI the enemy is not won over by "hearts and minds" bull poop. You win when you kill the enemy at rates far faster than he can bring fighters to the field. War has always been thus, and will always be thus.

· The Petraeus Doctrine, which few in Washington at least seem to realize, is nothing new. Its fundamentals have been around since the first insurgency. But what its done is make us believe that we can win insurgencies without getting out there in the dirt and killing the enemy. Everyone goes limp when it's mentioned General Petreaus went to Princeton. Wake up America: you are losing your wars because your generals go to Princeton. why on earth do people assume that if you're good at academics you make a good soldier? Yes, you can be good at academics and be a good soldier. But you don't become a good soldier because you go to Harvard, or Yale, or Princeton, or have a bunch of masters' and doctorates.

· But didn't General Petreaus win Iraq for us? Actually, he did not. We criticize the Africans because of their need for Big Men, and then we run and do the exact same thing, look for a Big Man to save us. a few years ago there was that nasty and wholly uncalled for sloganeering: "Petraeus, you betrayed us." Now there the equally wholly uncalled for sloganeering "Petreaus, Save Us." As if the US military is composed of a bunch of morons who just need the right leader to turn them from losers to winner.

· We'll talk about Iraq another time. For now let's just say that (a) General Petraeus has not gone to Afghanistan to win, he has gone to create a space for our political leaders to withdraw while claiming victory; (b) there's no question of winning this war because America is not prepared to do what it takes to win.

0230 GMT July 9, 2010

· So a Marine, General James Mattis, has been named head of CENTCOM to replace General David Petreus who has shifted down to Afghanistan commander. so the news says he takes command at a critical time, which seems to be about the only statement that is made at these change of command occasions, and frankly, it's a bit barf-making, because when is ANY point in a war not critical? If there are any non-critical points in a war, it isn't a war, hello people. It's like saying there are points in a race, or a boxing match, or whatever, when things are not critical. When you compete, every moment is critical.

· Anyway, we didn't mean to off the rails with a rant. No. Our purpose is to tell you apparently the good general was in trouble some years back. Why?

· Because, according to CNN, "In an on-camera 2005 interview, the general said: "Actually, it's a lot of fun to fight. You know, it's a hell of a hoot. You go into Afghanistan; you've got guys who slap around women for five years because they didn't wear a veil. You know, guys like that ain't got no manhood left anyway, so it's a hell of a lot of fun to shoot them." "

· Can someone explain to us why this statement got the general into trouble? Isn't war about killing the other guy, and isn't it best to have leaders who want to kill the other guy? What is wrong with America?

· Pakistan, China plan rail link It will be about 1000-km long and cross the Karakorums, with its alignment similar to the highway. Having built a rail line to Tibet, the Chinese have gathered the experience needed to tame the Karakorums. Its different terrain and all that, but once you get a rail line built at 4000-meters, climbing up from a few hundred meters above sea level, you basically have what you need to build any high-altitude line, no matter how rough the terrain.

· Pakistan is now linked via container train to Turkey, and is working toward a Gwader-Karachi rail line. This will tie up with the cross-Karakoram rail line.

· The next ambitious Pakistan-China project in planning is oil and gas pipelines from Gwader to Sinkiang.

· The plans for the Arakan (Burma) - Sinkiang oil pipeline have apparently been finalized.

· We'd earlier mentioned the high-speed rail line between Beijing and London now being planned with a target completion of 2025.

· Meanwhile, back on he ranch, in the good old US of A, right here in the Capital of the Free World, you have to count yourself lucky if you can get your journey done without a delay. Of course, asking the escalators work is asking too much. We put a man on the money in 1968, but we can't keep Metro's escalators working.

· To Russia with love Okay, so we can either claim "orbat.com's intelligence sources" told us the Russian spy ring that was just rolled up would be exchanged for American spies Russia is holding - just as the media says, or we can tell you the truth.

· The truth is we had no clue the Americans wanted someone out of Russia. When we talked of the possibility of an exchange, the other day, it was purely theoretical.

· Turns out the Americans did want an exchange: CNN says there are four persons Russia has imprisoned as spying for the US, and their health was failing, leading to some urgency for their release.

· So there you have the reason picked up the ten Russian spies - we couldn't understand why they bothered, it would seem more sensible to let them be and continue watching them, given that they weren't get much, if any, spying done.

· We know conspiracy theorists will have dark suspicions, but really, from the start it was obvious this was a Much Ado About Nothing. It's pretty feeble when you arrest people as spies and then charge them with being unregistered agents of a foreign power.

· Note to self Don't forget to hie over downtown Washington and register as an agent for the Martians. Gotta stay within the law, you know.

· BTW, it's not that that the Americans choose people with failing health as their spies. We're sure everyone was in robust health before their arrest. Russian prison conditions are so rough, however, that the most robust person ends up sick.

· Letter from Reader Lauren I was excited to learn that you can communicate with the Martians. If it is not a secret, can you tell me how it's done?

· Editor's reply We gather Reader Lauren is young and enthusiastic and are delighted someone has asked. It's very simple and not at all secret. The Martians communicate with semaphore flags. Before Reader Lauren asks how does one see the flags given Mars is so far away, you read the flags using the 100-meter Keck telescope.

· Doubtless you will ask: we've heard of a 10-meter Keck, but a 100-meter anything telescope? Yes, there is a 100-meter Keck, and the only secret is where it is located. Editor would tell you, but then he'd have to kill himself.

· The Euros are desigining a 42-meter 'scope, are thinking about simultaneously doing a 50-meter 'scope, and are conceptualizing a 100-meter 'scope http://www.eso.org/sci/facilities/eelt/owl/OWL_design.html if approved, it could be built for less than $2-billion.

0230 GMT July 8, 2010

An excellent article by Bill Ardolino embedded with the 1st of the 2nd Marines in Musa Qila. Its refreshing to read an article written in plain factual style, with no pretensions to winning a Pulitzer.

http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2010/06/initial_security_impressions_m_1.php

Musings on Verizon and land lines

· Reader Ramganesh Iyer had a good laugh at Editor's travails with Verizon and his land line. He says that despite the annual very heavy Bombay rains, he has not lost his land line once. He expressed surprise that Editor is using a land line: hardly anyone in India has one, he says; everyone is on mobile phones.

· Mobile phones in India are a classic case of technology helping leapfrogging a country over developed countries. India was for many decades famous for the near impossibility of getting a telephone line. Then came mobile phones, and usage exploded: India has the fastest growth in mobile lines, excluding even China. By next year India should have 700-million mobile subscribers, which is quite astonishing when you consider half the 1.2-billion population is under the age of 18. Last time we looked at the figures, land lines were kind of stuck at 33-million - and even that is about 10 times what it was when Editor left India in 1990 (we'll have to check the figure). We've never seen a study on what percentage of India's GDP growth in the last 20 years has been due to the availability of mobile phones, but are willing to wager it's a heft chunk of total growth.

· US is in the reverse position of India. As the home of the land line, the country is wired through and through with land lines, though this is a sunset industry.

· Editor's terrible experiences with Verizon are the result of a simple phenomenon. To increase profits, US companies at all levels have been cutting personnel like the end of the world is coming. An experienced telephone tech can make upwards of $60K annually, so when Head Office is salivating about to cut expenses to boost its own take, the techs are an easy target.

· The problem is that the techs are the backbone of a telephone company. Verizon has cut back so heavily, its repair service is non-functional. Eleven days to get a repairperson on one occasion and 14 days on another is worse than the darkest hole of a fourth world country. But Verizon simply doesn't have the techs anymore.

· So isn't Verizon worried that customers will go to other telephone companies? The problem is, go to whom? The others are even more flaky than Verizon, which at least is a successor to the old ATT Plus, were Editor to tell Verizon he is switching, Verizon Head Office will likely say: "Glory be, we've driven away another customer on whom we make no money..." Editor does not consider his bill of $60/month for one active and one reserve line to be nothing - that's just local service, long-distance is extra, but there it is.

· Now, when you call Verizon to say your line is out, you can hear the rep drooling at the other end of the phone: "We see you don't have a maintenance contract with us so that'll be $99 to send out a tech - shall I schedule an appointment?" There is a silence when you tell the rep, "Ma'am, its an external problem so Verizon has to fix it." Even if it was an inside problem, what is the $720/year that Editor pays Verizon. loose change for the drunk begging outside the liquor store?

· If Editor had money, he'd do a test and tell the phone company rep the problem is inside, and he'll pay. Be interesting to see if the wait for a tech is shorter.

· But why, our readers might ask, has Editor lost his line twice in three months? No one knows, and no, it isn't the Department of Homeland Security eavesdropping, because (a) Editor has given the whole world his blessing to tap his line, he is so desperate for importance, and (b) if DHS was listening, you can be sure the line would work perfectly instead of sounding, at the best of times, like 100 people are watching the latest heavyweight fight in Editor's living room.

· No. The explanation is more mundane. Because Verizon has been getting rid of experienced techs, Editor's line is getting cut when a new installation is effected in the area. The line is dead beyond the street telephone pole.

· Okay, so why not ditch the land line altogether? Editor's own children have no land line. Two reasons. (a) The reception is plain horrible. (b) Editor suffers from Fat Finger Syndrome (Fat Finger Syndrome is a copyrighted phrase belonging to Editor, please be warned - more on this another time). Editor has a hard time dialing on push-button phones to begin with, on mobile phones its impossible. Let's not mention losing the little critters.

· But what if the Editor encounters an emergency away from a phone? Well, before people had mobile phones the sun rose and the sun set same as it has a for a few billion years in the past and will for a few billion years in the future. But what if one's late for an appointment? Back in the day when we didn't have mobiles, you simply made sure you weren't late. Editor allows lots of reserve time when going to an appointment. But what if one has a breakdown on the road? One simply raises the hood, ties a strip of cloth to the aerial, and one sits down to wait, just way people did it before mobile phones. Sooner or later someone will stop to help, and they'll have a mobile phone. What about wasted time? What wasted time? Old folks like the Editor are not going anywhere that needs hurry.

· But what if it's the Martians letting Editor know they have answered his prayers and have arrived to take Mrs. R the Fourth away, and they're on Route 410 and where do they make the next turn?

· You are doubtless going "Aha! Editor's slippery, but we got him there!". Not really. Everyone knows the Martians don't use telephone of any sort to communicate, silly.

0230 GMT July 7, 2010

· A Main Stream Media person was interviewed on US local defense programs in Afghanistan by National Public Radio. The person spoke in almost-evasive terms because in America, to be considered main stream, you cannot use strong language. This is what the person said.

· In Wardak Province, US raised a local militia of 1200, paid them $190/month, gave them 3-weeks training, uniforms and so on. There has been improvement un provisional security with this program, except it cannot be said how much is due to the militia and how much to the presence of US troops.

· At any rate, this program is not being replicated because - as the reporter so delicately put it, you might be forgiven for thinking you are reading about sex in a 19th Century novel, there was some interaction between the militia and the Taliban which the US didn't quite understand. We don't need to translate this for you, but since no one pays us for anything, we can be blunt: the Wardak program is an utter failure because the militia and Taliban are collaborating, to the extent the militia has actually enlisted Taliban without the US knowing.

· A new initiative has been under trial in Naghrahar Province where US is not enlisting militias, it is helping set up village guards. Well, this isn't going well either because as part of the deal, the US was to deliver $1-million to the Shinwari tribe for their use in "development" projects. So first the other tribes got angry, then factions within the Shinwaris who were kept out got angry, and there were clashes. To make it worse, the civilian command ordered that no civilian Americans would be involved because, to use the reporter's delicate language, there were interactions with the Taliban going on that the civilians didn't understand.

· Translation: the US civilian command knew perfectly clearly US was being taken for a ride but the military would not listen.

· None of this would be forgivable even if the US had just entered Afghanistan. All this stuff about each tribe, sub-tribe, and sub-sub-tribe should be in the DOD/CIA/State Department databases.

· It is even more unforgiveable given that we are almost 9-years into this war.

· What is the point of all the sacrifice, money, effort the US has put into Afghanistan when we cannot get the simplest things about the tribes right? Is anyone ever going to be held accountable for this enormous error along with the dozens of others that have been made?

· Unlikely. When it comes to ignoring their own mistakes, the American establishment is very forgiving. And most of the rest of the country considers itself so patriotic they don't want to ask how come we are in such a mess, leave alone hold anyone to account.

· From Professor Feisal Khan While parts of Afghanistan have been ruled by various Turkic monarchs and dynasties, it was never a part of the Ottoman Empire. The Turks ruling it (e.g., Babar and the Moghuls) were southeastern Turks and the Ottomans were southwestern Turks. IIRC, the Turkic dialects are so different as to be mutually unintelligible at a practical level.

· I agree with you that the British showed a remarkable ability to socialize all sorts of natives into their military structure (settled Pathans, Sikhs, Rajputs, Fijians, Hausa, etc.) but don’t also forget that they faced continuous mutinies and rebellions in their units—the most famous of them is the 1857 Sepoy Mutiny but there were countless others, and not just Indian troops I believe.

· Editor's comment The British did run into problems with their native armies. but hopefully the Afghanistan Coalition should not be running into similar problems with its native armies!

· From Sparsh Amin on Google Earth Just one clarification. I do not exclusively use Google Earth to keep track of things. Occasionally, I also use Bing Maps. Nonetheless both Google and Microsoft buy their satellite imagery from a handful of commercial vendors like Digital Globe, Spot, and Geo Eye. On their websites these vendors provide free access to low resolution versions of all the imagery they have for sale. I have come to use these quite extensively as well. These preview images might be low resolution but they are very up-to-date: Usually no more than six to twelve months old. In comparison, the imagery on Google Earth or Bing Maps is usually outdated since they update a given area only once every three to four years. I remember that for several years their imagery of Bangalore and Hyderabad showed empty land where there should have been whole new airports until things were updated a few months ago. Of course you could get lucky and the area you are looking at might be recently updated.

· I end up using all these sources to keep track of things. There is a bit of judgment involved in collating imagery taken at different times and resolutions along with other exogenous data to make an estimate of what is going on. These estimates and their confidence levels are inevitably somewhat subjective. I try to train my "eye" by making estimates from satellite imagery and then seeing if they are independently corroborated later on (like the missile base at Khuzdar) as well as by applying the same training process in the reverse direction. However at the end of the day I am still an amateur bashing away on my own and not a trained professional analyst. So please take everything I claim from looking at satellite images with a grain of salt.

· Editor's comment We use the word "amateur" in its good British sense, not in the sense of a non-expert as the word is used in America.. An amateur is someone who purely out of interest devotes her/his lifetime to the study of something, and often ends up with greater knowledge of a specialized topic than the "expert". The nice thing about the hi-res photos available to day is that more and more a non-specialist can see stuff for themselves without the need for training. Photo-interpretation has become democratized.

0230 GMT July 6, 2010

No. 9 of Pakistan's 20 Most Wanted Taliban killed

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/07/wanted_taliban_comma.php

· The Oil Skimming Supertanker Due to lack of precision by the Main Stream Media, which has over the years become uncomfortable with facts of any kind, we inadvertently misled our readers about A Whale's skimming abilities. The ship does not skim 500,000-bbl-oil a day. It processes the equivalent of half-a-million barrels of water. To quote Reuters, A Whale "...can collect 500,000 barrels (21 million gallons) per day of contaminated water." Due to high seas the ship has not been able to process contaminanted water as efficiently as hoped; but the waters seem to be calming.

· BP says its 77-day cleanup costs are now over $3-billion, including $150-million paid directly to those affected. Of course, some substantial part of the $3-billion has been spent on wages for boat and ship crews engaged in the cleanup.

· Here's a story that woke the Editor from his malaise of terminal boredom...We had absolutely no clue that the Soviets used nuclear explosions on five occasions to seal hydrocarbon wells that had gotten badly out of control, and the tactic worked 3 or 4 times. A Russian expert says the logical way to end the Gulf blowout problem is to nuke the well with a 10-KT bomb. Interestingly, experts are not dismissing the concept out of hand, though of course the chances of this technique being used are very close to zero. As someone noted, prepping the well for an N-blast would take six months, and by next month BP should have gotten its secondary wells dug so there's no need for extreme measures.

· But Editor sure gave a lot of "he-he-hes" - wait till the Sierra Club hears of this proposal! What fun.

· http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6611RF20100702loomia_ow=t0:s0:a49:g43:r1:c0.202062:b35389494:z0

0230 GMT July 5, 2010

· The Afghanistan National Police: A pure case of happy-happy joy-joy Okay, so we're being mordant. What else can you do after Washington Post informs its readers that 40% of the ANP desert or drop-out annually, and locals beg the Coalition to please NOT send in the ANP after an area is cleared of Taliban. ANP is so ineffective and so corrupt, the locals would rather resign themselves to having no police.

· As part of the ANP there is an elite national unit which is trained and equipped for serious fighting. This unit suffers a non-combat attrition of seventy percent annually.

· So, we ask: this is the state of affairs nine years down range. Insurgencies are ultimately defeated by the police, not by the army. If after nine years of unremitting hard work by the coalition the ANP is an utter and complete mess, precisely just how does anyone hope to get it going in time to permit the start of Coalition withdrawals?

· On top of this, it turns out that the Coalition has been over-generous with its definition of what Afghanistan National Army units are combat ready, so the ANA has its own mess - and nine years have passed.

· We have no doubt that Coalition trainers work very hard at their job. The trainers have a long series of complaints, ranging from the trainees desert at the lightest excuse, are lazy as ---- (deleted word), are illiterate, with drug addiction rates of 50%, are corrupt as heck, steal everything they can get their hands on, whether it belongs to their people or the government, and make no effort to serve their people.

· We have no doubt the ANA and ANP recruits are every bit as bad as the trainers say they are.

· So what is the solution? Strictly speaking, right now its too late for solutions, whatever they might be. But if the Coalition could get a do-over, a press of the RESET button, what might be done differently?

· First, no matter how many times RESET is pressed, Coalition will not do it differently. Coalition wants an ANA and ANP in its own image, and you can sit on your haunches and bay at the full moon for as long as you want, the Afghans are not going to become little Americans and Europeans. When your starting point is that you require a literate recruit before you can start training him, you can throw out the bath and the baby, because you are not going to get literate recruits by western standards or indeed anywhere near western standards.

· Second, no matter what Coalition does, it cannot avoid creating a culture of dependency. This is another western tendency. The west sets the bar for the minimum required by way of equipment, housing, training, facilities, transportation, communications, what have you so high that the Afghans cannot come anywhere near that standard, and then they have no choice but to wait and get their stuff from the westerners.

· (In case anyone has forgotten: Afghanistan is a vast, dirt poor nation with a culture outside the urban areas that would be at home five hundred years ago.)

· Because what the westerners give the Afghans will always be third-class as compared to what they give themselves, there will always be resentment and passive resistance, as in: "Its okay for you to yell at us to go on patrol, but we don't have a tenth of the stuff you do, so how do you expect us to do the job.

· Third, if there could be a RESET not just in Afghanistan but also of the Coalition minds, the solution would be for the trainers to adjust their standards to local reality - and to live the same way as the locals.

· So, for example, if your typical Afghan has a 4th grade education, you gear everything to a 4th grade education. If the local gets two bags every day before setting out on patrol, one bag with a hundred rounds and the other bag with pre-cooked rice and beans, plus one full water bottle, well, that's the way the trainers have to set out too. We could elaborate on this, but don't think we have to, because you can straightaway see how demoralizing it is for the natives to have to make do with a fraction of what the "burra sahibs" - big officers - assume is a bare minimum.

· Last, the locals themselves must want to be soldiers and policemen. One of the reasons the British were able to create an amazing army in South Asia is that for a certain percentage of South Asians, being soldiers was not even so much as profession as a calling, millennia before the British landed up. For political reasons the British had their own classification of "warrior races", but the simple reality was that all South Asian races were warrior races. Men flocked to the colors wherever the British gave them a chance because war was an integral part of their heritage and cultural identity.

· One of the unacknowledged genius acts of the Indian and Pakistani governments after independence was the way they managed to transfer the simple loyalty the South Asian soldier gave to his British officers to their national flags and national officers. It was done seamlessly, without missing a step, for all that some reactionary British still insist there was no such thing as an India or a Pakistan till they got to South Asia.

· No matter which way you slice and dice, the same thing is not true of Afghanistan, which is still a tribal nation. Incidentally, this was NOT the case in Iraq! Yes, the tribe and the religion are very important in Iraq. But for whatever reason, Iraqis came into the post-colonial world thinking of themselves as Iraqis.

· You cannot change another thing, and please, we are not putting anyone down. If you carefully examine the Afghanistan situation, you will quickly realize the Taliban's way of war is the Afghan way of war, The Taliban have minimal formal training as soldiers. When they feel like fighting, they put on their keds, pick up their rifles and Jansport backpacks, and off they go to fight. When they get tired of fighting, they come home, hang out, until they get the urge again.

· Formal armies with rigid structures and discipline, loads of equipment that must be maintained, barracks that must be kept spotless, thousands of pages of manuals that must be mastered, records that must be kept, and so on and so forth are simply not the Afghan thing.

· So: issue number 1 is that the Afghans do not have an overwhelming commitment to the notion of Afghanistan as a unitary nation; problem number 2 is that the west has sought to build an army in its own image.

· If for even a second you think that western trainers should be learning and supporting the way the Afghans fight is crazy, and making the Afghans into western Mini-Mes is the right way to go, you have lost the Afghan war.

· It has nothing to do with Afghanistan being the graveyard of empires. It may be the graveyard of western empires, but you really should study Indian history 1000-1700 AD, when Afghanistan was part of Indian and Ottoman empires. The Afghans do nicely as part of an empire.

0230 GMT July 4, 2010

Happy 234th Birthday, America

An aside Last spring, the phone line got knocked out outside the house and the earliest Verizon could send was 11 days. Editor missed at least one job interview. Then Editor noticed the line was out again, and again outside the house. This time, Verizon said the earliest they could send someone was 14 days, in mid-July. After he explained to the nice Verizon lady that he had no job, and would lose his house soon if he didn't get a job, the nice Verizon lady said she'd set up things so that calls would be automatically forwarded to another number which Editor keeps in case the internet gets knocked out, which is fairly often. At 2100 last night he got his first call in four days, on on the reserve number, from the youngster, who said he had been trying without success to get him on the house number and then remembered the reserve number and took a chance. Sure enough, Verizon has not been forwarding calls. The house number just rings and rings, there is no message to say number is out of order. So say you're an employer, you've got a dozen good candidates, you call one, and his phone just rings, what do you do? You say "that's one dumb candidate, doesn't even have an answering machine" and you move on to the next candidate.

· Super Skimmer arrives in Gulf This is a Taiwan ship completed as a giant bulk carrier, but when the company heard about the spill, it fitted the ship out as a skimmer and got it to the Gulf this previous Wednesday. The ship takes in oily water from vents in the hull and separates out the oil. It can handle half-a-million barrels a day. You have to hand it to the Taiwanese company who is, after all, on the other side of the world. Good job Taiwan, and we Americans can scratch our heads at what happened to good old American ingenuity.

· The Second Coming will likely be a minor affair compared to General Petraeus's arrival in Kabul. we keep reading in the media and hearing on the radio "experts" saying we need a new strategy and Afghanistan is definitely winnable. Hmmmm. So after nine years we now thinking of a new strategy? A bit late, we think.

· And what is this new strategy supposed to feature? General McChrystal was using General Petraeus's CI bible, which for all the oooohs and aaaahs it has garnered is nothing other than standard CI.

· Americans first set themselves up to fail in Afghanistan because they did not want to make the sacrifice needed to win. Then they keep bashing the leaders who are manifestly not winning because you cannot win the way Americans have defined winning, with the resources provided.

· Say for example America has been content to return Afghanistan to its traditional state of governance, where the central government controlled Kabul and the 4-5 main cities. Then winning was possible with the forces committed. The Americans were not content to do this because they defined their objective as eliminating AQ's ability to mount terror attacks against the US, which means not only you have to control every square kilometer of Afghanistan and Pakistan, you have to control every square kilometer of the world.

· Why? Because it takes just a few hundred thousand dollars, and a handful of determined people, to organize a terror attack.

· American "experts" have no shame about telling us why we cannot accept defeat in Afghanistan, without mentioning the problem now is Pakistan, Somalia, Yemen.

· We do not blame opponents of the GWOT for thinking it's an American conspiracy, because the way success in GWOT has been defined, America will have to fight an endless war - really endless. Conspiracy theorists see this, and assume it's all being deliberately done. They won't accept that the people who came up with the way GWOT is being fought are not conspirators, they are a bunch of idiots.

· India's buildup against China Reader Avik Bhattacharyya asks us to clarify the situation regarding how many divisions have been/are being/will be raised.

· Two divisions have been raised, under Eastern Command. The Government is said to have approved the raising of two more, which will go to Northern Command. A couple of independent brigades have been requested and we assume permission will be given en passant, so as to speak.

· Now, Mandeep Bajwa explained to us the other day that the Army has asked for a minimum of seven new divisions ASAP with another four after that, so that we are talking of eleven new divisions at some point in the mid-2010s. Mandeep believes the seven can be taken as given, and the additional four will also be approved in due time as unlike in the past, today money is not a problem. India's official defense expenditure is just 2% of its GDP so it has room to spend more.

· Avik asks if seven divisions would not represent the greatest post-1945 build up by a democratic country. In 1963-68 India raised sixteen new divisions, so seven divisions over 5-6 years is not that much.

· Avik also asks what has happened to the modernization of the Pakistan-front forces. We are trying to frame the answer as politely as possible, without calling the Government of India and senior defense staff morons, idiots, cretins, and retards. With those words ruled out, all we can say is that everyone has transferred their attention to the new toy, the China buildup, and no one has time for the old toy, the modernization of the Pakistan-front forces. For eleven years the Government has been going on and on about Cold Start without doing a darn thing to make Cold Start a reality. And it doesn't require much to make it a reality, just a simple expansion of mechanization.

· The new mantra is "two-front war". Well, sorry about that, the Indian Army has since 1963 been sized for exactly that, a two-front war. Readers can take it on the Editor's words alone: he's studied Indian defense policy for 40 years, and he can assure readers the last time anyone knew what they were doing was the 1971 War - and two-thirds of the objectives even then were abandoned because India was - still is - ruled by the Yellow Boxer Brigade - Boxer as in boxer shorts, the rest we leave to your imagination.

0230 GMT July 3, 2010

From Russia With Love

· The spy scandal Times have truly changed when both the Americans and Russians simply shrug off the discovery of 11 Russian agents who had built up lives as your all-American neighbors. The reason has to be that the eleven never did any real spying; they were supposed to contact think tanks and such to learn what the think tankers were thinking, and as someone said, there is no one more eager to tell you what s/he is thinking than a scholarly type so you don't need a spy for that. For the rest, read the news and the scholarly journals and so on.

· Indeed, there was so little spying going on the lot has not been charged with spying, but with being unregistered foreign agents. Americans are so used to their absurd laws that we have heard not one comment on the charges.

· If that wasn't enough, the Russians out of the blue passionately declared that the agents were indeed theirs, which is a severe deviation from the script because the whole point of Non Official Cover agents is that you have deniability. The Russians did not need to own the spies to gain consular access to them because they are entitled to that access as Russian citizens, so they guess is the Russians are prepared to bargain for their people, though the Americans at least don't see what there is to bargain about. It's not like the Russians are holding 11 Americans to trade.

· The dominant sentiment of the neighbors of the Russian spies was: "We just can't believe it, they were so decent."

· Look people, the whole point of long-term embedded spies is precisely that they look so decent. As far as Editor is aware, there is no Spy Look that would tell anyone at a glance that a person is not on the up-and-up. we don't doubt the neighbors of Ames, Hansen, and Pollard were equally in shock.

· The greatest excitement has been reserved for a vivacious redhead who has caught the fancy of every American red-blooded male over the age of - say - 14. (In the interests of gender equity, which Editor staunchly promotes, he supposes he should say "and doubtless many American females too". Consider it added.) The blogs have been full of semi-salacious comments like: "Her punishment should be to date me," we wonder if writers with those sentiments realize that possibly Ms. Va-va-voom would prefer to serve 30 years in Leavenworth or wherever than date such witty people.

· The neighbor of Ms. Va-va-voom says the lady was so busy building up her business and career that she, the neighbor lady, does not understand why the spy lady had time to spy. The Editor is sure he reveals no secrets when he says 95% or even more of your typical spy's hours are spent doing the same things everyone else is doing. Ian Fleming and Sean Connery ruined the image of spies who often tend to the extraordinarily dull.

· Still, thank you Russia and US FBI for a little clean entertainment. We wonder what the FBI's reason for pulling in the agents was.

· First RS-24 ICBM operational says the Russian media. We thought okay, this is next-gen Russian ICBM and there isn't anything more to it, but apparently, if you are into missiles, there is a considerable bit more to it. You can read the details at Global Security http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/russia/rs-24.htm The RS-24 (that's the Russian designation, the NATO designation could be SS-29 after the provenance of the missile is sorted out) is expected to replace the SS-18, -19, and -24 over the next 40 years.

· (By the way, we read somewhere that the US Air Force, at least, would feel comfortable with 311 strategic nuclear weapons.)

· India to arm 40 Su-30MKI with Brahmos ALCMs Brahmos is a joint Indo-Russiam missile with a 290-km range and therefore exempt from the MCTR to which Russia is a signatory. It is supersonic and very low-level flyer, making it difficult to detect and destroy. It comes in three versions: 3-tube ground launcher (in service with the Indian Army); VLS naval version (entering Indian Navy service); and air launched. Drop tests using Su-30 Flankers will start in 2011, and the first operational test launches will start in 2012. The missile can also be adapted for submarine launch.

· Progress has a glitch on ISS resupply mission The unmanned Russian supply carrier Progress is a relatively simple, robust, and dependable vehicle, so people were mildly surprised when it failed to dock with the ISS, which currently has six astronauts/cosmonauts aboard. It carries the usual supplies - oxygen, water, food, spare parts, etc. The vehicle had to abort its arrival just 2000-meters from the ISS. The Russians will try Sunday to get it hooked up with the ISS.

· Russia says it is willing to supply more helicopters for the Coalition mission in Afghanistan One Mi-26 heavy lifter is already on charter to a private company and has been used to recover downed helicopters. The Mi-26 has an empty weight of 28-tons and a maximum take-off of 50-tons. Its usual maximum payload is 20-tons, but can handle 25-tons as overload. It is the world's largest helicopter.

· Russia also says it has flown 88,000-metric-tons of cargo to Afghanistan for the Coalition, using its outsize An-124 cargo transport.

· Vostok-2010 underway in Sea of Japan The biennial naval exercises usually average 8-10,000 sailors and marines, but this year's exercise involves 20,000. Just another sign of Russian forces returning to operational conditions after the decline that came about on the breakup of the USSR.

Letters

· Reader rdickhaus sends an article http://www.elpasotimes.com/news/ci_15411359?source=rss that he thinks President Obama should read. We don't know about the President, but our readers for sure should look at it. Mexico is increasingly in a state of civil war because of the narco-traffickers, and US attention - as usual - is focused far away on things that don't concern us while we neglect far more urgent threats to our security right on our border.

· Reader Sanjith Menon asks about the Pentagon's development of alternate supply routes to Afghanistan and wonders about the significance of these efforts. Pentagon has been developing alternate air, truck, and rail routes that bypass Pakistan since 2007. We discussed the rail routes in some detail last year and as usual cannot find the analysis because we have no indexing system. We've mentioned one air route in the above update on Russia.

· The reasons are simply that relying on one reluctant "ally" - think Austin Powers - for 90%+ of your L of C (a) ties your hands with respect to the ally when he behaves badly, and (b) leaves you with no alternatives if insurgent activity cuts your L of C.

· But because of the vastly increased US presence, the alternate routes cannot take the place of the Pakistan route. Further, through the systematic application of bribes, the Coalition's L of C is surprisingly secure. The US consoles itself that the US Government is not doing the payoffs, the Afghan, Pakistan, etc. contractors are, but this is just a convenient fiction. US is directly feeding the insurgents it is fighting. The rest of the world finds this amazing, particularly given the US habit of squeezing funding, no matter how harmless and for what humanitarian purpose, for groups it doesn't like like Hamas, but without blinking an eye pays millions of dollars monthly to the Taliban.

· What can we say here? The Americans live in their own reality bubble and the immense contradictions in how they keep their supplies flowing doesn't cause them to lose a moment's sleep. We wonder what would happen if Americans approached their courts asking the US Government be sanctioned for financially supporting terrorists. The US government defense "we aren't doing it, the contractors are" would not pass US anti-terror laws for a minute.

0230 GMT July 2, 2010

· Back in Iraq someone is killing members of al-Iraqia, the political party that won a narrow victory against al-Malaki's party in the March election. Iraq does not have a new government as yet, as election officials try and sort through allegations of fraud made by both parties.

· But someone is not waiting: 150 members of al-Iraqia have been murdered, including - says the New York Times - the following in the last 72-hours alone: "at least eight Iraqi police officers, an Iraqi Army general, a government intelligence official, a member of an Awakening Council, a tribal sheik, and a high ranking staff member of Baghdad’s local government have all been assassinated in either Baghdad or Mosul."

· Read http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/01/world/middleeast/01slay.html?ref=middleeast for speculation on who is behind the killings.

· Israel maintains real embargo Consumer items are being allowed into Gaza, but as we had anticipated, anything that will produce jobs is still banned. There seems to be an increase in cooking gas cylinders permitted; but as we have no idea what quantities Israel allowed in before the relaxation versus what is now allowed in, we can't say for sure.

· Meanwhile, Israel has permitted Russia to send 50 APCs and two Mi-17 helicopters to the Palestine Authority, which means the West Bank. The deal was agreed on in 2005, but Israel changed its mind and it was held in abeyance after 25 demilitarized APCs were transferred. The new batch will also be stripped of weapons.

0230 GMT July 1, 2010

· Its deja vu all over again So its 1990, the Iraq-Iran war has ended, and the Gulf nations are not willing to write off the $50-billion they lent Saddam to fight the Shia enemy. When Saddam's ambassador again asks for relief, the Kuwaiti delegate spits at the Iraqi. Iraq overruns Kuwait after the US ambassador says the dispute has nothing to do with the US. President Bush I sees no need to intervene, till Mrs. Thatcher tells him this is not the time to go wobbly.

· Now, Mrs. Thatcher was not being moved by deep respect for international law. International law is violated all the time, and people don't rush to punish aggressors and defend victims. There were many factors prompting the Iron Lady, no doubt. But possibly the biggest one may have this: after Saddam seized Kuwait, he would have stepped up oil sales both to pay his enormous bills from the Persian Gulf war and to punish the arab oil states who had disrespected him. Lower oil prices would not have been good for Great Britain, a major oil producer. US, as always caught in a conflict because it is the 2nd biggest oil producer (it needs high prices) and the biggest consumer (it needs low prices) indeed did not have life-death stakes in the Iraq-Kuwait dispute, but went along with the British. The rest, as they say, is history.

· Now fast forward to 2020. If all goes according to plan, the biggest global oil producer will be Iraq, not Saudi. Iraq's plan require no new discoveries - there may be between 200- and 400-billion undiscovered barrels in Iraq, most of which has never been properly explored.

· OPEC already has excess capacity, and has been maintaining prices only because it has been restricting output. But if Iraq replaces Saudi as the final arbiter of global oil prices, the betting is prices will sink - not fall, but sink. This is because (a) Iraq oil is cheap to recover (as is Saudi oil) and (b) Iraq needs whacking huge sums of money to rebuild itself; and (c) in case no one has noticed, Saudi is a Sunni state, Iraq is a Shia state. Iraq and its Sunni neighbors have a wee dispute going ever since the Americans overthrew Sunni Saddam. The Saudis have played their part in destabilizing Iraq, and will continue to play games because as the power of the Shias grows, Saudi Arabia - which has its own substantial Shia minority - and what a coinky dinky, the Shias live where the oil fields are - will come under increasing pressure.

· Sure, Iraq does not need a collapse of oil prices back to the $20-barrel range. It will not produce recklessly. But whereas the Saudis don't need the money they could earn by pushing more oil, the Iraqis do need all the money they can get. Perhaps after the Iraqis have build back their country and have half-trillion to 1-trillion dollars in reserves and investments, they too might see things the Saudis see them, i.e., less is more. But that political differences will remain regardless of economics is a given. and folks, the Shia-Sunni despite has not been resolved in 1300 years. Its not going to be resolved tomorrow. Iraq will want to be Numero Uno in the Arab world, and Saudi will be standing in the way. Oil prices will be the weapon of choice the Iraqis will deploy.

· The geostrategic ramifications of Iraq becoming the world's largest oil producer are considerable. But the implications for oil prices are more severe. The rest of the world is paying more and more to recover oil as the first 2-trillion barrels of oil, the easy-to-recover stuff is running out. The second 2-trillion barrels requires prices between $40-$80/barrel to be economical. Doubtless as extraction technology keeps improving, the breakeven will fall. Nonetheless, the high expense oil producers are going to be clobbered. They will not make needed investments, which means when easy-to-get Iraqi oil starts running out - say in 2050, there will be an oil shortage - deja vu all over again, again.

· Once reason Editor does not begrudge oil companies their massive profits is that they take enormous risks, and making it much worse is the way oil prices yo-yo. Luckily for the Editor he does not run an oil company, so he gets to sleep peacefully - after the ritual nightly cursing of his poverty, of course.

· We have to repeat something we say every year. If you are waiting for oil to run out, don't. For some reason people - respectable, educated people - keep saying we are reaching the end of the oil age. No, no, and no. We are reaching the end of the cheap oil age. In the age of cheap oil, in today's prices, oil cost something between $10 and $20 to extract. In the second oil age, it will cost $40-$100. In the third oil age, whenever that comes, it'll likely be something like $150 in today's money. All guesses, of course, no one can foresee the future to that level of precision. That's why you have people saying the world will still rely on oil ninety years down the road. They're not crazy because the world has 4-trillion more barrels to extract. Just we'll be paying much more for it.

· This whole thing about oil reserves and prices: readers do realize everything we've said depends on oil being a fossil fuel. If it's not the case, if hydrocarbons are continually made inside the earth, as Thomas Gold among others believed and as many Russian oil people swear is the case, then all bets are off as to when oil will run out.

· Ironically, if oil prices sink a source of clean energy humans apparently have in abundance will get compromised. This is natural gas. Already natural gas prices are low because reserves just keep galloping ahead. If oil prices fall, the outlook for clean natural gas will also fall.

· When Editor looks at these earth-shaking questions, he really is glad all he has to worry about is paying the next month's bills. Let's hear it for poverty.

· Since most of us are going to be poor soon, the way America is going, the Editor is doing his best to get us used to the new realities ahead and is pushing the slogan: Blessed be the poor, for they shall inherit the kingdom of heaven. Poor is good, rich is bad. And that slogan is going to be another case of it's deja vu all over again.

· Letter from Ramganesh Iyer Here’s an interesting view, that takes a 30 year perspective to this nation and war: http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100628_30_year_war_afghanistan. I don’t think its prognosis is very different from what you are saying.

· On a different note, the problem seems to be like the Indian demon Raktabhija – each drop of blood spawning more demons. The military solution to this is what you advocate – hit hard and in sustained fashion till the enemy is decimated. Don't give the blood time to drop and spawn more demons. Like the Japanese and German armies in WW II.

· There is also a possible political solution – US just staying outside the Eastern hemisphere! After all, there are several terrible despotic regimes in the world, with the worst human rights records and contempt for democracy. But so what? Is the US been divinely appointed to show their people the light? Let there be blood and let there be demons. If indeed democracy is the globally superior form of governance, will not these people discover it themselves over the years and decades? If not, shrug. They get what they deserve.

230 GMT June 30, 2010

· A Double-Dip Recession is the worst possible of likely outcomes forecast in 2008, and it looks increasingly as if that's where we're headed. In the just concluded recession US lost as many jobs as in the previous four recessions combined, so Americans and the economy are already stressed out; another recession when we haven't pulled out of the one we're in could have consequences we cannot yet discern.

· But as the good ship USS America springs multiple leaks with a real chance of going to the bottom, we advise our readers to be of good cheer. It does not matter where you stood on the recession or where you stand now, everyone is absolutely right.

· So: some said that the stimulus wouldn't work, and they were right. Others say the stimulus was too small to work, and they were right too. Some say we need another stimulus package; guess what, they are right. Then there's those who say to heck with the stimulus, we need to stop piling on the deficit - you too, Your Honor, are absolutely correct. But, say some, if we don't deficit spend at a time demand is collapsing because people are unemployed and don't have money to but things we will get into serious trouble: Jack, you are right on the nose here. But, say others, if we don't start reducing the deficit now when are we going to start, and a runway deficit will destroy the economy and Jill, you too are so right. Those who say we cannot afford health care "reform" are 100% correct. And those who say despite our spending twice as much money as other industrialized nations we are the bottom in terms of health indicators are 100% correct. We could go on, but you see the point.

· Meanwhile, there is one point on which we need to agree but are unlikely to. That is that Democrat or Republican, recession or boom, the rich will get richer and the poor will get poorer. There used to be three classes in America: rich, middle-class, poor. Soon there will be two: 10% of America will be in one class, 90% of America will be in the other class.

· Resign yourself to this truth, be prepared to move your entire family into one room and eat rice and beans, dutifully sing God Bless America, and you'll be fine. Also remember: if you have that one room with a bathroom, heating and running water, and rice and beans three times a day, you're still better off than half the world.

· Dontcha feel better already? God Bless those who run this great country.

· You say we paint too grim a picture. You're right, We forgot to mention: let us all be sure to be appropriately humble to the Chinese, and maybe as their country develops they'll give us visas to do the jobs they no longer need to do - you know, the $1/hour, 60-70 hours/week jobs where you work in dirty, dangerous conditions and die 20 years earlier than you should because you've been poisoned by the toxic factory wastes the Chinese are pouring into their environment? We are sure Americans will learn that a long, healthy life is much overrated.

· Letter from Hale Cullom re our rant on Afghanistan In general, I agree with your post, but I don’t know that I agree that the United States could have defeated the Confederate States earlier than it actually did.

· The whole US Army (out of which both sides drew most senior officers) in 1860 was barely 20,000 men. Lee, Sherman, Grant – the big commanders of that war, were all relatively junior, and had never commanded bodies of troops larger than regiments. Within an incredibly short time, these men were commanding vast armies thousands strong, over thousands of miles of territory.

· My point is that the commanders on both sides had to learn their craft from their fund of book learning and on-the-job training. They didn’t have the Prussian General Staff to plan the campaigns and organize the war effort. With perfect knowledge, perfect training and no mistakes – maybe your comments have a point, but not otherwise. The effectiveness of the war efforts of both sides increased as time went on – and time meant that the North could bring its greater manpower and material resources to bear in a more effective manner than the South could cope with. But the North needed the experience that only time could bring.

· The best illustration of this point is possibly from a Southern perspective -- I’m one of the minority who thinks the South could have actually won that conflict – and I’ll go out on a limb and say that I think that if Robert E. Lee had, in 1862 (during the Peninsula and 2^nd Manassas, Sharpsburg campaigns) possessed the slightly smaller army he had a year later at Gettysburg -- with its better articulated command structure, and its more experienced, better equipped troops—he’d have likely defeated the US Army in the east in the field and won Southern independence. He came very close as it was.

· Somewhat the same effect was visible in the west, although on the US side. It hurts my pro-Southern feelings to say it (hey, ancestors and all)…but much the best army either side fielded in that whole war (with the best generals) was the US army under Sherman that took Atlanta, which decided the war. But it was mostly the same army that had been slow as molasses all through Tennessee in 1862, combined with Grant’s forces that had ineffectively putzed around Vicksburg for a better part of a year till Grant (a great general also) figured out what he had to do and his troops learned how to do it. The US was also able to put together a formidable logistical apparatus to ensure that opportunities to follow up the enemy, and to keep raining blows on him, were not missed because of the need to haul up supplies or reinforcements.

· (As an aside, the Yankees also learned the need to protect their lines of communication from guerrillas and raiders – maybe the most important factor in the success of the effort against Atlanta was the US move to bring up thousands of 90-day militia to protect rail junctions, bridges, magazines, etc. The failure to do that ruined them in Tennessee in 1862).

· As for 1914 and Paris. . .I don’t know that taking Paris was a realistic hope for the Germans in 1914 – too well fortified, it would have taken a regular siege to overrun the place, and I doubt it was possible then. What the Germans needed in 1914 was extra corps to screen Paris, and to keep following the BEF and the French left south of the Marne (although supplying them looks pretty dubious).

· I’m not sure that by 1914 the French rail network wasn’t developed enough to let the French move troops to their endangered left faster than von Kluck’s and Bulow’s Germans could march. Still – the maps show all the central France RR’s at that time going thru Melun (southeast of Paris). I don’t know about Paris, but if the Germans had grabbed Melun, things could have gotten disagreeable for the allies. Failing that, maybe they should have slowed down sooner, forted up about where they did later that year, and made an effort earlier to grab the channel ports (which WERE within reach).

· In any case, the Germans could have won that war I think up through 1917. Think on what might have happened had the German government resisted the pressure from the admirals for another three months in early 1917, and shelved the decision to open unrestricted submarine warfare for another three months. The Russian Revolution broke out in March. . .and it was clear by then that Russia was on the way out of the war. What would have happened then, if no unrestricted submarine warfare? I think the US would not have gotten in. Thinking back over what happened in Europe and in the world since…I’m not sure that would have been such a bad outcome.

· Editor's comment On the Civil War we will, of course, defer to Mr. Cullom's judgment. The issue of what's realistic in war is highly dependent on what the Americans called Monday Morning Quarterbacking: replaying the game knowing what happened every minute of the real game. Had the Germans made it to Paris, we'd be finding reasons for their victory. Since they did not, there are books and books explaining why they did not make it to Paris.

· Our point is simply that the Germans came within 50-km of Paris - that's how we calculated three days. Whatever the reason they didn't make it, they could never make up for those three days. Time, as it always does, imposed its merciless will on the course of events. Three days in a 51.5 month war is very little. But it sufficed to snatch victory from the Germans.

0230 GMT June 29, 2010

· A reader asks: "what happens in Afghanistan when US leaves?" Two scenarios. Under the first scenario, lets assume Americans do not let their government continue the Afghan War and US is largely out by 2013.

· In that case, Afghanistan will explode in a multi-party civil war. On the Pushtoon side you will have the existing government, warlords like Hekmatyar, and different combinations of Pakistan-backed and Pakistani Taliban like the Haqqanis and the Mesuds. The Pushtoons will fight each other as well as the other side. On the other side (Tajiks, Uzbeks etc) you will have Russia and India massively backing the non-Pushtoons. This will not be like 1994-2001 where both countries acted covertly and cautiously. This will be an all-out effort. There will be less infighting here but you will have far from a completely unified opposition front. The new civil war will be long and bitter, with no way to predict who will win out, if anyone.

· For Scenario 2, assume President Obama fakes out the US public by appearing to withdraw before the 2012 election, say by sending some troops home. Then assume he gets reelected, or if not another person does, and the reelected President or the new President renews a commitment to "stay the course", so that US doesn't leave till 2017. Why do we see the US leaving by 2017? Because no matter how gullible the American public is - and when it comes to people waving the flag our brain cells seem to stop working - by 2016 the US will have been in Afghanistan 15 years and the public will say enough is enough.

· What follows a US withdrawal in 2017 is the same as Scenario 1, except surely there will be other principals leading the various factions.

· But wait, you say: is Editor seriously saying that another four years of US troops in Afghanistan will make no difference? That's exactly what he is saying. And it will be the US, not the Coalition because everyone else will have gone home.

· The reason for the Editor's assessment is that he does not believe US can change the Afghans, no matter how many years it wants to spend. They will remain factional, corrupt, and ineffective. Further, once it becomes clear US is not leaving, Pakistan will double its efforts to support the Taliban. Anyone who thinks the Pakistanis will accept a democratic, secular, pro-US/pro-India government in Kabul is going to be disappointed. Sorry to sound like Mahan and McKinder, but geostrategy does not change. The actors do, but each actor has the same imperatives.

· This may sound odd in view of the general Pakistan-bashing in which we are all engaging, but right now Pakistan is actually holding itself back because it figures US is going, why unnecessarily aggravate it. But if Pakistan sees US is not leaving, Pakistan is going to go all out, in spades and diamonds and clubs and hearts.

· So will the Afghanistan Taliban. They too are lying low: why get yourself unnecessarily killed when the infidel invaders are getting ready to skip town?

· The bane of American planning for Afghanistan - as was the case for Second Indochina - is the Americans never worked out that if they do A, the other side with do B. There will always be a counteraction to every American action.

· Oh ho, you say, we finally got, you slippery Editor you: if B must always follow A, no one would win a war. And that's manifestly not the case in the real world.

· At which point the Editor yawns and examines his fingernails, goes for another chocolate, and starts working on something else while his critics figure it out themselves.

· But here's a hint. Go back and read Napoleon, and you'll see he most clearly emphasizes time in warfare. If you smack your opponent, and then patiently wait for him to smack you back, the both of you can be standing there smacking each other till the world ends. To win a war, you don't wait for the other guy to recover from your slap: you keep hitting him again and again so that he cannot recover and then you will get a victory. In other words, there is no graduated escalation, and you'd think after the failure of Second Indochina and the success of First Gulf the Americans would understand that.

· Had the Americans gone into Second Indochina, Second Gulf and Afghanistan in massive force right off the bat, the enemy would have been kicked to the ground and would have been forced to stay there.

· Some day the impartial history of the Afghan war will be written, but as we understand it, US has already twice defeated the Taliban in Afghanistan. Once was in 2001. The Taliban came back, US slapped them down again by 2005. Then the Taliban said "Whoa! We'd better hit them all out this time", and they managed to regain control of 80% of Afghanistan by night, and a smaller fraction by day, by 2008. So the US girded itself for Round Three, which is what we are now seeing, and of course round Three will also be lost because the Taliban will have plenty of time to react. Whether they will win in 2013 or 2017 is just a matter of detail. As long as the Taliban have sanctuary in Pakistan, and as long as the birth rate in Afghanistan and Pakistan keeps going at 3% annual increase, you can talk about 2021 or 2025 and the result will still be the same.

· If you doubt what Editor is saying, just play a little scenario and refight World War II, with the Allies sitting back after each major campaign is won. So, for example, the US recovers from Pearl Harbor and pushes Japan out of the Central Pacific and into the Western Pacific, and then eases up because it believes the status quo ante has been restored. As readers know, US never gave the Japanese a chance to catch their breath, to rest, regroup, recover, requip, and retrain. It simply kept hitting Japan till the latter had nothing left.

· Then look at the Germans in World War II. At a tactical and what the Russians call a grand tactical level, the German generals never let their opponents take a breath. But after they overran France, they found one reason or another not to go after Great Britain. They turned to the East. If you study that campaign carefully, you will see there is no reason the Germans could not have overrun Russia to west of the Urals by the end of 1941. All the bit about faulty opening strategy and supplies and logistics and railroad gauges are minor issues. The sole relevant issue is that the Germans lost time - again and again - because their strategic objectives kept being changed by Hitler.

· Given that Germany's GDP was about the same size as Great Britain's and the same size as the USSR's even without considering the US GDP, you can see the one thing the Germans did not have is time. They turned away from Great Britain and allowed the British to recover, the repeated delays in the Eastern offensive gave the Soviets a chance to recover, and then of course mindlessly declaring war against the US after Pearl Harbor was just the final nail in the coffin.

· Editor knows little of US Civil War history, but has been told several times that the North could have won the war a lot earlier but for missing opportunities in forcing the other side to battle, giving him a chance to withdraw and regroup. The Germans failed to make it to Paris in time in 1914 by what? Three days? And that was that. The rest of the war's course was set in stone.

· Look at Second Gulf and assume US had sent ten divisions and launched a second offensive from Turkey. The Saddamites would not have been able to recover.

· Ditto Afghanistan. Many talking heads in Washington say it's not too late to win in Afghanistan. Of course it isn't. Send over ten divisions and allow four years as well as unrestricted bombing of Pakistan, and you'll win the war. Then plan on staying for fifty years and of quarantining Pakistan for fifty years and may be you'll have yourself a deal. Of course, even ten divisions will not suffice if you fight the war with lawyers required to sign off on every move.

· War is messy, it is cruel, more innocents than guilty suffer, it is destructive, it is fundamentally unfair, and to win requires a high order of ruthlessness - toward your own combatants as much as toward the enemy - and it requires a complete disregard of the laws of war if the other side isn't going to observe them.

· But, you know, there's the pithy Americanism of the 1950s: if you can't stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen.

· Americans need to get out of the kitchen.

0230 GMT June 28, 2010

Just think about this for a moment

· We read that one reason General McChrystal couldn't stand Mr. Richard Holbrooke is because of the latter's habit of emailing/texting while the general was trying to talk to him. You will agree when you are trying to have a serious discussion - or even an unserious discussion - and the other person's attention keeps getting distracted by electronics, even the mildest person wants to take a baseball bat and first smash the other person's head and then smash the electronics.

· But there could be more to this than just bad manners. Editor, being a school teacher, has ample first-hand experience of what he speaks, and has even researched the matter and has even co-published a paper with one of his professors on what is called the Twitch Generation.

· Editor's students are on one electronic gadget or the other their entire waking time, and many even cut sleep to commune with their gadgets. One result of this is they have no memory, neither short term nor long term. Forget about them recalling what you taught last lesson, they cannot remember what you taught ten minutes ago. They cannot take notes, because that requires focus. They cannot sit and be still within themselves.

· Obviously this is not true of all students. About 2% of my students are capable of earning real As, and another 5-10% of earning real Bs. But even those students, for the most part, have to be listening to their I-pods, and must frequently check their texters/phones. The only ones who seem to bear up are those very few who have no gadgets - and they'll borrow from a friend who has two or more, whenever they can.

· Here are three extreme examples, just to make a point. Case A: a very well-behaved 10th Grader who never gives any trouble to teachers, but is also lost in space because she is constantly on her texter. That's against the rules, and 95% of teachers don't enforce the rules because all they would be doing is enforcing this rule for the entire class period. But this young lady's grade has fallen from an A to a C, so Mr. R asks her to hand over the texter for the duration of the class. He will not give it to the administrator, he will not call the parent, he will not keep it for the day, just for the sixty remaining minutes of class. Student goes into hysterics, and says she would rather be suspended for three days with a record in her permanent folder than be with the gadget for an hour. Was she bluffing? No. She wouldn't hand it over; Editor had to deliver her to the administrator and she went with complete calm.

· Case B: an extremely well-spoken 10th Grader, smart, respectful etc. One day teacher notices he has two Blackberries, one in each hand. Well, the student has been getting Bs, Editor is not going to make a federal case out of it. But Editor is curious and asks: "Son, how many gadgets do you have?" Student empties his pockets, lines up five gadgets on the desk and says he has two more at home but lacks pocket space to bring them to school.

· Case C: a quiet, respectful 12th Grader in her last quarter before graduation. Ten minutes into class Editor has told her four times to put away the cell phone - which she was on as she walked into class and continued to get back on each time Editor's attention was not on her. So editor took it away, promising to return it at the end of the 90 remaining minutes, puts it in his pocket. So, Editor is quite deaf at some frequencies, and he keeps hearing these distant annoying bell sounds. Finally he gets mad and shouts at the class that the next gadget he hears, he is going to feed in small pieces to its owner, and if student or parents make a fuss, he will sue them till they are on the street, so go ahead and make my day.

· So class is quiet because the Editor almost never loses his temper, but then he hears the ringing sounds again. As he opens his mouth, several students say: "Its the phone in your pocket, you haven't turned it off." So Editor feel quite stupid, because he doesn't have a cell phone and doesn't know they need to be turned off.

· So: as an experiment, he tells the class, we will keep it on and make a has mark on the board each time it rings. So we are doing the lesson and Editor is making has marks, and so we proceed to the end, when he has 198 hash marks on the board. Midway into the class, he had 50, or one per minute. In the remaining 50 minutes, the student is getting an average of one call every 20 seconds. When Editor hands the phone back when the period ends, student checks the phone and politely says: "They're all from my boyfriend and there's 205 calls."

· So Editor is standing there mouth open like an old fool and saying: "But you already spent the time moving between classes and the first ten minutes talking to your boy friend. Doesn't he realize you are in class?"

· Yes, she says. But he's jealous and unless I talk to him the whole school day he thinks I am talking to other boys. So Editor had to let that one go, because any idiot can tell she's equally jealous too and has to keep him on the line too. She has only to tell boy friend she will get punished if she uses the phone in class and she can't talk to him. You can't blame the boy alone for this.

· So Editor leaves it to your imagination to figure out what kind of future this boy and girl have that they cannot put away the phone for 7 and a hours hours each school day. But sure as heck she is not going to an Ivy college or to ANY college.

· Okay. Back to Mr. Holbrooke. First, we do realize he is perhaps the most annoying person in Washington even without his emailing while you're trying to talk to him. Second, Mr. Holbrooke's brain can not be as deteriorated as those of Editor's students because presumably he spent the first 30 years of his life or so without Blackberries and wireless internet and I-pods and what not.

· Nonetheless, he is the President's Special Representative to Afghanistan-Pakistan. As such, he is perhaps one of the 10 most important Americans in the Afghanistan War. If he cannot focus when the field commander is trying to talk to him, what kind of a job is he doing?

· At which point you will say: "Why are you picking on Holbrooke? Isn't everyone that way today, and the younger you are aren't you the more addicted to gadgets 24/7?"

· Precisely. We are not picking on Mr. Holbrooke. He is only one part of an entire culture which thinks it is multi-tasking, without understanding the human brain is constructed in a manner you can hold only one thought in your head at a time, so far from doubling your efficiency by doing two things at a time, you're actually halving your efficiency because you are two things badly. And the odds are high General McChrystal and his staff are also on gadgets every minute they can - in America its called working hard.

· Now Editor wants to divert your attention back to Vietnam Editor is sure you have heard every theory on what went wrong, but have you heard this theory that comes from information theory? To wit, the US put so many signal troops into the theatre, and had so many different channels to move information, and these channels were so jampacked with messages every minute of every day, that (a) critical information got swamped; and (b) higher commanders were constantly - we mean constantly - sitting on top their subordinates' heads, making it impossible for the subordinate commanders to focus, and forcing them to play CYA at all times instead of leading their units.

· Now multiply this by 100 or a thousand, and the noise you have contend with is that much worse.

· So: to summarize. People cannot focus, their long-term memory is impacted, they cannot sit and think, and their brains are being continually agitated with noise including written noise.

· Oh yes, add the brain damage done by PowerPoint.

· Editor is not asking you to agree with him. He is asking you to think: could it be that darn near everyone's brains are shot to some extent, and the younger generation - 25-years or less - has even more seriously diminished brain function? Could this be one reason we seem to be in a continual mess on everything?

· (PS: Editor is familiar with the theory that there's nothing wrong with our brain functions, its just that our brains function differently now. Okay, but problem solving is still set up to be done the old fashioned way. You can't build a bridge - or run a war - without strict attention, an ability to understand what information is relevant and what is not, and an ability to go look for the information you need.

· (PPS: And don't forget the damage the Internet is doing to our brains.)

0230 GMT June 27, 2010

Is this the story behind the McChyrstal story?

· We've been waiting for some explanation of why General Stan McChrystal and his staff were so angry at their superiors. To us this seems an obvious question to ask, but we haven't seen anything till yesterday that gives any potential clue to what was going on.

· UK Independent says that it has copies of leaked documents relating to a recent briefing the general gave NATO. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/the-last-post-mcchrystals-bleak-outlook-2011730.html In the briefing he basically said the situation is a mess, and not to expect any progress for six months.

· Well, unless one has been doing the Ostrich-Head-In-Sand thing, the news that Afghanistan is in a mess is no news. Indeed, we raised an eyebrow on learning the general said to expect no progress for 6-months. As it is being fought, and as the situation is today, this war is lost. Six months is not enough to turn this around. Given existing parameters, the situation cannot ever be turned around to end in victory.

· So what is the big deal that the general said six-months? It's still way, way optimistic.

· Well, according to the Independent Washington freaked and the general was told the timeline he was given was measured in months, not in years as his briefing implied.

· We'd been reading in the past weeks that the US command has been under incredible pressure to deliver results. So all that happened is that the general got angry at being told to hurry up an already impossible task. Not being able to say: "Mr. President, Sir, you and yours haven't the faintest clue as to what's happening, and my superiors will have my resignation by close-of-business today," the general blew up. Psych 101: you feel you can't walk off a job that cannot be done and you're catching the flak, then you act in a way that makes sure you're fired.

· You've done it. Editor has done it. Looks like the general also did it.

· Why could not the general resign? See, to outsiders unfamiliar with the American military - and that seems to include 95% of Americans, resignation seems like a reasonable course, but it is not a reality.

· First there is is the mundane business of paying bills. None of us knows what is the general's personal situation, but we can reasonably guess he is in the same boat as we are, and he can't afford to resign.

· Second, if you ask why couldn't he have lined up another job and then resigned, you are assuming he is capable of being two-faced: each day he gives inspiring speeches about "on to victory" and soldiers who trust him go out and get maimed or killed, while at the same time he is quietly looking for another job. Some may be able to carry this off, but most of us cannot.

· Third, you have to understand the culture of the American military. Under no conditions do you stand up and say "It can't be done, here's my resignation".

· To explain this, Editor has to digress. He was in middle school when his father one day said: "you know, all this business about American democracy and individualism is a farce when it comes to their military. They are more rigid about following orders than the Germans ever were."

· Now naturally when you are 13 or 14 and you hear something like that, it takes years of learning before the full meaning sinks in. If you are familiar with the German military tradition, you will know all officers had to right to speak their mind to their King. You will also know how much senior German officers fought with Hitler during the Second World War and how many handed in their papers or asked to be relieved of their commands if they disagreed with higher ups.

· Guderian is only the best known of the German generals in this respect. He had a habit of loudly arguing down any officer with whom he disagreed, and if thought a person was fool, he had no hesitation in letting them know. In the US Army, Guderian could never have made it to senior rank. He would never have made it through a Senate conformation hearing. He had absolutely no hesitation in repeatedly bypassing the chain of command and landing up in front of Hitler to argue his case. Once in front of Hitler he had absolutely no hesitation in shouting if Hitler refused to see his point of view, and that Hitler shouted right back made not the slightest difference to the general. There is the famous episode where the two men were shouting at each other so violently that another person in the room had to physically pull Guderian out of Hitler's face because the person was worried Hitler would hit Guderian. The number of times Guderian threw his resignation in Hitler's face is quite astonishing - Editor has never gotten around to counting.

· All we want the reader to do is to try and imagine General McChrystal and the President in a screaming match over policy. Not once, but dozens of times. Can't imagine it? Don't blame you. It could not happen 70 years ago. It cannot happen today.

· The US military has a tradition of: "You follow the orders you have been given. No ifs, not buts. Just do as you are told." McChrystal could not give his resignation because he is conditioned to think of that as the act of a traitor. American generals are conditioned to follow orders no matter what: it is a matter of patriotism to them.

· And this is precisely what is wrong with the American military, and has been wrong with the American military since the first days on Second Indochina.

· That said, Editor understands fully that when you are conditioned to believe dissenting with your superiors - let alone with your President - is akin to treason, it is unreasonable to expect General McChrystal to have handed in his resignation after he was yelled at subsequent to the NATO briefing.

0230 GMT June 26, 2010

The weekly rant

· After No Child Left Behind, American law schools have decided that no law student needs to be left behind either. Law schools are inflating their grades to give their students a better shot at interviews. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/22/business/22law.html?src=me&ref=business

· This leaves unanswered what happens to the normal distribution curve. If we equate a C with average, B as an honor grade, A as the highest honor, then a D becomes acceptable, and an E become a fail. If grades followed the normal distribution, then 68% of students will get Cs; 14% will get Bs or Ds, and 2% will get As or Es. This is not the way grading is set up, but humor the Editor for a moment.

· Now someone like Harvard College, which has been giving - we are told - 50% of its students As, will say "Oh, but our students are extra smart." Fair enough - there may be some truth in that. But the problem is, once you are smart enough to get into Harvard, you cannot say 50% of Harvard students are A students. They may be so when compared to the national pool of college students, but because the normal distribution applies to Harvard even if the Lowells talk only to the Cabots and the Cabots talk only to God, only 2% of Harvard students should have an A.

· So then while the Harvard diploma may something, the grade is worthless because by definition 50% of Harvard students cannot get As.

· Now, the assumption that law firms will look at your top law school summa cum laude and go "ooooh, ooooh, we want her" assumes that law firms are stupid. And its never a good idea to assume someone whose job it is to make a profit off your work is stupid. The top law firms will look at the long line of top law school grads outside their offices, take one look at that summa, and toss the degree in the trash because they will know that while you're smart enough to get into the top law schools, it tells them nothing how you scored at the school.

· So we come back to what we said before: why bother inflating grades? If you inflate your money, isn't it worth less, don't you need more money to buy the same thing? So why is it that inflating grades is acceptable?

· It's patently dishonest, and with top law schools doing the inflating, they are feeding into the culture of puffery and feel goodism that has overtaken America. It won't change a thing at the hiring table, and all it will do is degrade the reputation of the law schools. This will be particularly true overseas where the interviewer will say: "Ah yes, we know all about your university's diplomas."

· In a competitive world, grades have to mean something. You don't add points to an athlete's score: if Abby throw the discus X number of feet we know exactly where she stands in relation to other discus throwers. If we give her the gold, it mean's she's the best of the field.

· To be fair, the article says that Harvard and other top law schools (we're not talking Harvard College here) have started giving pass/fail grades. But this merely evades the question of who is better than who. As a potential employer, assuming I am one of the best law firms, I still want to know which of the candidates is academically best. Of course, as an employer I will use GPA as only one of several criteria. But as a starting point, a reasonably fair GPA system is a good start. I don't want to interview 90% of the class of Harvard or Stanford Law School to choose who gets through the turnstile for a serious interview.

· That's why Editor's recommendation is that schools and colleges alike shift to the normal distribution in handing out grades.

· India to produce more Su-30MKIs An additional deal for 42 aircraft at a price of ~$80-million each has been signed, extending the domestic production run to 2016 or 2017. The total contracted for is now 271 aircraft, sufficient for 12 squadrons. Undoubtedly this is impressive, but obviously the PLAAF is not going to sit around.

· Meanwhile, India is having the usual problems with the Russians demanding a price increase for aircraft already contracted. They are also pushing India to buy another 350 T-90s, presumably directly. Given the pathetic state of the Indian tank factories - output is less than 80 a year because of poor management - if the Government wants to modernize the armored corps it may have no option except to go in for another major direct buy.

· With Indo-Russian arms deal there is no transparency, so no one knows how any deal plays out. Matters are not helped by the Russians make long announcements about purchases having been agreed on long before contracts are signed.

· Pakistan constructing missile base at Khuzdar Reader Sparsh Amin likes to keep track of Indian and Pakistani military installations using Goggle Earth, and he writes to us describing what seems to him a Pakistan missile base under construction at Khuzdar in Balochistan.

· Since the evidence is available publically, we can now tell you that Mandeep Bajwa informed us some months ago a Pakistan Army Strategic Missile Group is based at that location.

· Sparsh says: (Look) a few kilometers south of Khuzdar. Follow the road south of the cantonment for about 4-5 km and you will find it to the west of the road. The whole walled off site is in the initial stages of construction but at the western end of it you will find six very large buildings (25m x 15m x 2-3 floors) with concrete apron space leading out of their shorter sides. This size is compatible with and suggests a garage for two ballistic missile TELs of the sort that Pakistan has. There are two other even larger buildings nearby that I think are some sort of support buildings. There are other buildings and smaller garage complexes scattered around the site. In the northeast corner of the site you can see living accommodation under construction.

· A neat analysis, for which Sparsh has our congratulations.

0230 GMT June 25, 2010

· Iranian flotilla to Gaza cancelled says Haaretz.com. The reason, the Iranians say, is "Israeli threats."

· Dear me. Those bad, bad, bad Israelis threatened to take away the Iranians' Bunny Slippers. Anyone would cancel in the face of such a dire threat.

· Meanwhile, a single ship with 60 Iranians will substitute for the Iranian flotilla.

· We've never seen anyone back down as fast as the Iranians. So since the Israelis are threatening retaliation if the Iranians proceed with their N-program and support to Hamas/Hezbollah, can we now expect Teheran to terminate those programs too?

· Also meanwhile, an Iranian delegation visiting Germany refused to visit the Buchenwald concentration camp. The camp is located outside the city of Weimar; the Iranian delegation is from Shiraz, Weimar's twin city. A visit to the concentration camp memorial is apparently kind of de rigueur if you're visiting Weimar.

· We sympathize with the visitors. Who wants facts interfering with one's carefully constructed theories? Iran Government says the Holocaust never happened, so there's no need to visit a fake memorial, right?

· Element 114 is on its way to the periodic table. It's been independently made in three separate labs. The argument is: is it a noble gas or a metal? One test will be to see if the atom sticks to gold; if yes, that makes it a metal; if no, then it's a noble gas. For more tests, more atoms are needed. One atom of the new element lasted as long as 3.6-seconds. That's still better than the Editor's conversations with good looking ladies at the gym.

· http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn19083-element-114-on-the-brink-of-recognition.html

· Scientists are rushing to save our plastics heritage from disintegrating Like most everyone, we thought plastic was indestructible. Not so, apparently. Read about it at http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20627651.900-drastic-measures-save-plastic-treasures.html

· Reader Sanjith Menon on Afghanistan's change of command Whatever happens nobody is going to win in Afghanistan. Americans are making a mistake again and again, by siding with Pakistan. Obama had leanings to Pakistan, Mc Chrystal in his report, wanted Indians out of Afghanistan, and now Petraeus , the good buddy of Kiyani...all failed because they depended on Pakistan , for support.

· You need ground troops, in Pakistan, sir. without which, the fire is not going to end. you need to disrupt, detain, and defang the Pakistani military apparatus, if you are looking for a safe exit out of
Afghanistan. As long as you do not do that, the Taliban sitting on heroin money in big Karachi mansions will be laughing as they are winning by default.

· Obama by 2012 will be known as "the great promise, that fizzled"

0230 GMT June 24, 2010

Some ramifications of the recent McChrystal kefluffle . . .

Lou Driever

· Petreus - is being given a Herculean task. Presumably he accepted with the caveat of redefining the ROE, ops tempo and benchmarks. Ideally he should demand the resignation of Ambassador Eikenberry (US to Afghanistan) and US envoy Holbrooke. Unfortunately, this appointment sets him up as the fall guy for anything that goes sideways and neuters him from participation in the 2012 electoral cycle. Petreus has to remember getting grilled by Obama over the Iraq surge (7 minutes of theatre before he was allowed to answer the "question"). Move-on has already removed the "General Betrayus" link from their site so that's a plus. Oh yeah, and don't forget Hillary Clinton calling him a liar. He is really dedicated to take this role on given who he has to report to . . . If Petreus is replaced within the next 6 months the successor general will be viewed as a pawn and dogpiled (reflecting on Obama accordingly); and odds are high that Petreus is an interim solution. And note that so far you've had McKienan, McChrystal and Petreus all within 2 years; that's got to roil the admin side trying to keep up with the leadership style changes. This was probably the optimal leadership choice to re-energize/motivate the officer corps.

· Obama - can blame recent setbacks on McChrystal (last guy fired) and any future ones on Petreus; he can take credit for any successes likewise. Any such opportunism will be clear to the officer corps, increasing existing alienation. In sum, once Obama decided to can McChrystal he made the best choice of a range of poor options.

· McChrystal - positioned to be Secretary of the Army or other significant post in next (non-Democratic) administration; can present termination as politically motivated; can distance himself from any subsequent military setbacks in the campaign. And Michael Yon will express his vindication having been dissing McChrystal for the past 90 days on Facebook. Echoing Daniel Foster, a good interim position to take advantage of his knowledge/skill set would be sending him in - after a decent interval - to replace Eikenberry (which would hugely annoy the State Dept so unlikely to occur.

· Karzai - was outspoken in his support for McChrystal so will see this as (another) slight by Obama; blame any setbacks on changing horses in midstream; can use any delay in the Kandahar operation to push for withdrawals to be deferred past the 2011 timetable; will be able to explain any changes in policy/etc to his electorate as now dealing with different viceroy.

· And for the war (remember that?) - anticipate more relaxed ROE, deferred benchmarks, less COIN focus . . and no change in interim term results. Without evaluating / changing basic assumptions, no "ultimate" progress will be made (e.g. - eliminating Islamic terrorism/havens/recruitment/training sanctuaries).

The usual update

· Pakistan rejects US pressure on Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline US is trying to get Pakistan to abandon this $7.6-billion project. Pakistan says if international sanctions are imposed on Iran covering the pipeline, Pakistan will have to comply. But, it says, it will not give in to unilateral US pressure to cancel the deal.

· Pakistan has been suffering from an acute energy shortage these past years and its getting worse. US just can't say "you can't trade with Iran and your economy can go to heck" without offering alternatives to Pakistan. Do the people who make these decisions have any idea what it's like living in Pakistan without sufficient energy for cooking and power stations?

· Better still, these bureaucrats and their Congressional supporters need to go live like ordinary folks in Iraq for a few days. Most of Iraq gets four hours or less of electricity every day. Right now its 120F in the shade.

· Normally we'd say: "Well, that's the Iraqis' problem." But US/Coalition first caused enormous damage in Gulf I and II, then the chaos that erupted subsequent to the US occupation saw such further lethal damage to the generating/distributing that even seven years later the power situation is a complete mess.

· IRNA reports the UK has said the pipeline is Pakistan's own business.

· Israel develops new doctrine for Gaza in case of war And this new doctrine is as stupid as the previous one. The idea is to give civilians ample opportunity to evacuate ahead of combat operations. This will reduce the civilian toll, moreover, it will permit Israel to use its firepower without worrying about international repercussions.

· Needless to say, the Israelis have not said where the population is supposed to go after being warned of impending operations. Limited warning was given in the December 2008 operations, where the Israelis piously said they dropped millions of leaflets and called up Gaza residents ahead of a strike in a particular area. Well, then as now, the residents had no place to run too, they had just minutes to abandon their homes, and often they found themselves blocked by the Israelis and pushed back.

· So now Israel will enter an area more slowly, says Jerusalem Post. Great. So it'll be 30-minutes instead of 15-minutes warning. And the people are supposed to go where after being warned?

· US gave months of warning before the Battle for Fallujah. And even then we felt the US action was immoral by today's standards because the Americans made no provision for refugee camps to receive the displaced persons.

· http://www.jpost.com/Israel/Article.aspx?id=179244

· Having bashed the Israelis above, we now have to defend them Belgium is considering indicting the Israeli PM and Foreign Minister at the time of 2008 War for war crimes.

· We are unequivocally against this foolishness. Did the Israelis not commit war crimes in Gaza? Sure they did. Many people think that US/NATO - who Belgium is allied with, and who use Belgian infrastructure to support the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, have also committed war crimes. So why is Belgium not considering indicting its own leaders and then the leaders of its allies?

· A crime is a crime. You cannot pick and choose which one you will prosecute. Equal treatment under the law is a cornerstone of civilization. Further, you cannot have every national jurisdiction and judge deciding for themselves what is a war crime committed overseas and then bringing indictments. You need to get international agreement on a set of standards; the standards must be clearly communicated.

· Interestingly, an international mechanism does exist, and it works - the International Court of Justice. ICJ has been busy prosecuting crimes from the Balkan Wars, has ex-President Taylor in custody, and is looking for ways to get the President of Sudan to stand trial.

· If Belgium wants to do the right thing, it is free to approach the ICJ with a complaint.

· And if it wants that it actions should be ethical, it should also ask for the indictment and arrest of Hamas leaders, along with the leaders of other nations who have, or continue to, committed/commit war crimes.

· Completely BTW Editor was somewhere the other day where TV cameramen were filming. He was startled by how at a quick glance a camera can be mistaken for a shoulder-fired SAM launcher. Particularly if you happen to be in a helicopter, being shot at, are hyped to the full - if you're not, you won't survive if you allow time to closely identify what's going on and it turns out yes, that darn fellow really is training a missile launcher at you - and scared as whatever.

· It would not help if you had a combat cameraman in the middle of things who decided he needed a dramatic head-on shot of the helicopter as it bores in.

· What people need to do is to play a specially designed video game. In this game, if you are "killed", you get a short jolt of 440 volts AC. Obviously you have just the one "life". Your game takes place with civilians and combatants inextricably entwined. Let's see how much collateral damage you cause.

· Then if you want to judge people in combat, we'll listen to you.

· A Letter from Reader and Orbat.com Contributor Terry Shifflet explains there are two Littoral Control Ship versions. The ugly feller is LCS 2, with a trimaran hull http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Independence_%28LCS-2%29 . LCS 1 Freedom has a traditional monohull http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Freedom_%28LCS-1%29. No decision yet on which version is to be built.

0230 GMT June 23, 2010

· As Israel ponders what items to allow into Gaza, we need to explain to our readers that the issue is not consumer goods. Yes, people's lives will become easier if more consumer goods are permitted. The real issue is, however, will Israel permit imports and exports that will allow revival of the defunct Gaza economy so that people can have jobs. In a sense all the "deep" pondering Israel is doing is a feint because there is no evidence yet that Israelis are willing to budge on their highly successful operation that has wiped out legitimate economic activity. Criminals and Hamas are, of course, thriving.

· A minor piece of good news Israel has successfully launched its Ofek-9 reconnaissance satellite. Reports say it will join Ofek-5 and -7 in surveillance over the Middle East, but we're wondering what shape Ofek-5 is in after eight years in orbit.

· Fourth generation Russian SSCN not to enter serial production says RIA-Novosti. The Project 885 "Graney" class cruise missile boat Severodvinsk will be a one-off design. Construction began in 1993, and though the price is secret, RIA-Novosti thinks it tops $1-billion and this makes more boats unaffordable. The boat carries 24 5000-km cruise missiles, torpedoes, mines, and anti-ship missiles. We have no idea if these other weapons are loaded at the cost of missile tubes, though the boat would carry torpedoes for self-defense even if carrying 24 missiles.

· We wonder if cost is the sole issue. The hull is a design over 20-years old.

· No need to guess what came over General McChrystal when he and his aides talked in front of the Rolling Stone correspondent. Unconsciously, the good general wants to be fired because he in a situation where everyone is beating up on him after putting him in a situation where there was zero chance of salvaging the lost Afghanistan war.

· Why not just resign? Americans are not like that: they cannot, will not admit they can't solve a problem even if it is obviously insoluble. The military in particular is trained never to say something cannot be done. You are considered a bad officer, a non-team player, a loser, a failure if you stand up to your superiors and say: "This cannot be done under the conditions and limits you have imposed; honor requires me to resign."

· This is why you had a particularly bad war in Indochina II, why Gulf II went on for so longer, and why Afghanistan has gone nowhere despite nine years of trying.

· We are not saying everything is the fault of General McChrystal's civilian superiors. There is a heck of a lot that has gone wrong in Afghanistan that is purely the fault of our military leaders. (Oh dear, we're being disloyal, unpatriotic even, by suggesting the military must bear its share of blame for Afghanistan. But wait - it's okay, because Editor is not a citizen and can get away with saying the US Government, intelligence agencies, and intelligence agencies may have no clothes, but equally the generals have no clothes either.)

· Of course, rules are rules, and according to us, whatever the provocation, the good general is way, way, way out of court. We don't see how he can continue in his job. Your senior bosses may be donkeys, but when you signed on, you agreed that when they brayed, you say: "Great rendition of the Messiah, isn't it?"

· Letter from Reader Terry on the above issue (a) McClellan bashed Lincoln in the press ...fired.
(b) McArthur bashed Truman in the press...fired. (c) McChrystal bashed Obama in the press....fired?

· Doesn't pay to be a General Mc-something and bash the Commander in Chief does it?

· Editor's comment A very clever observation!

0230 GMT June 22, 2010

· Just what was needed: more bad new about the Gulf of Mexico And no, this has nothing to do with BP and oil. Reader Flymike sends an article saying there is an 8500-square-mile dead zone because fertilizer runoff from agriculture washes into the Mississippi and then to the Gulf. An upward trend is evident since people started growing corn for ethanol.

· The Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) recently stated in a report: "When acidification, fertilizer use, biodiversity loss and toxicity of agricultural pesticides are taken into account, the overall impact of ethanol and biodiesel can very easily exceed those of petrol and mineral diesel."

· The article appeared in the Weekly Standard. Okay, so we know William Kristol's magazine has a distinct point of view, but the only things that matters is the facts. either they are so or they a'int so. Please write us if you have data that suggests the Standard is wrong.

· No such thing as a free lunch, energy wise. US has already economized to such an extent that its energy use is rising only by 0.5% a year. But since the country will add another 100-million people by the 2030s, energy demand is going to increase.

· Lebanese blockade runner delays its voyage after an international community request. Jerusalem Post says the ship, named Mariam after the Virgin Mother, will be manned solely by women. The concern for Israel is any action against the women will inflame an already volatile situation.

· Get this, folks: the Japanese have a 24,000-ton "destroyer" So after the Haruna class of helicopter-carrier destroyers (which by today's standards really are destroyers even if back in the day their displacement at 7,000-ton full load would qualify them as cruisers), Japan built two Hyuga class destroyers of 12,000-tons. But their new "destroyer" displaces 24,000-tons, with a length of 248-meters - almost the size of the US Essex class fleet carriers that bore the brunt of the carrier war against the Japanese. Moreover, the new ship has a nice, all-through clear deck.

· So the Japanese are prohibited by their own constitution from building aircraft carriers, but people are saying the ship can easily take F-35s. The Japanese, of course, say that the ship has to be this big because they plan to base MV-22s on it as opposed to the SH-60 on the predecessor class.

· By the way, if you want to see the ugliest warship in history, the US LCS class is a good candidate. It looks like someone cut off the front part of a Coast Guard cutter and mated it with the rear part of a Spruance destroyer. And dollars per ton, the LCS is the most expensive surface warship ever built, approximately $133,333 per full load ton.

· The reason we never realized just how ugly this poor beat is, is because we'd seen only pictures showing itt from the side. Then we saw pictures from the bow and overhead, and gagged. And a littoral combat ship with a 57mm gun? It has 21 RAM SAMs, and was to carry 45 NLOS missiles for anti-surface operations, but we're told the NLOS is about to be cancelled. Moreover, isn't NLOS designed to attack armored fighting vehicles? Those things are a lot smaller than warships. Oh yes, it has two 0.50-calibre heavy machine guns. If this is the new face of American seapower, all we can say is we'll have to rely on enemy crews to hold their breath till they pass out.

0230 GMT June 21, 2010

· China to let currency appreciate, but this will solve nothing Like everyone else we believed that an undervalued Yuan was the reason for the enormous Sino-US trade imbalance. It is only when Editor had to study the matter for an MBA class that he realized the undervalued Yuan is a minor problem.

· A single example suffices: Between 1971 and today the Japanese Yen has appreciated by 400% against the US dollar, from Yen 360 to the dollar to Yen 90. With the exception of 2-3 years in the last 40, Japan has continued to run a balance of payments surplus with the US.

· Chinese labor costs form a very small fraction of total export costs because the Government has kept wage growth much below GDP growth. Insofar as an upvalued Yuan will make imported material cheaper, even with the wage increases that now seem inevitable as China plunges into labor unrest, Chinese export prices will not change by much.

· The problem with China is too easily pinned on the Yuan. In fact, there is a much larger problem, and that is China has a raft of policies designed to boost exports. In the US, government policies to encourage exports are impossible to duplicate on anything akin to the needed levels because the minute you say "government intervention", people start yowling like dogs whose tails have been stepped on.

· Americans have no difficulty with the Government when it's giving us money, for example the $400 tax refund given to everyone who owed taxes in 2009 over that figure. We have no problem screaming, begging, and abusing the Government for not stopping the BP oil spill. But ask the Government to do something sensible, like give American exports the same breaks as the Chinese get, and Whoa! It's Big Government trying to play favorites again. (Humorous, given that American agriculture in general is very heavily subsidized and no one seems to be able to cut the subsidies, most of which do not go to Farmer Old Man McDonald, but to agribusinesses.)

· If the dollar:yuan ratio were the only reason for the trade imbalance, how to explain why Japan and Germany run surpluses in their China trade on stuff like engineering goods, where the Chinese are beating the pants off the Americans.

· If at all you are interested in how mass media attempts to create its own definition of reality read this article from UK Independent: http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/fighting-talk-the-new-propaganda-2006001.html We quote one para below:

· Now again, when US generals refer to a sudden increase in their forces for an assault on Fallujah or central Baghdad or Kandahar – a mass movement of soldiers brought into Muslim countries by the tens of thousands – they call this a "surge". And a surge, like a tsunami, or any other natural phenomena, can be devastating in its effects. What these "surges" really are – to use the real words of serious journalism – are reinforcements. And reinforcements are sent to conflicts when armies are losing those wars. But our television and newspaper boys and girls are still talking about "surges" without any attribution at all. The Pentagon wins again.

· Its very easy to bash Israel but those of us who don't live there cannot understand the power of the extreme fundamentalist religious right, which also happens to translate into key seats in Parliament. You should read this article explaining how ultra-orthodox white Jews in a west Bank settlement do not want their daughters to go to school with Middle Eastern Jews because, they say, the latter are not devout enough and are contaminating their children. In any other democracy this would be called racial discrimination and it would not stand for a minute.

· Read this article on the battle underway after the High Court ruled that children of both ethnicities had to study together. http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/ultra-orthodox-activist-ready-to-withdraw-claims-of-discrimination-in-segregated-school-row-1.297305

· For a viewpoint that supports the segregationist parents, read http://www.jpost.com/Israel/Article.aspx?id=178821

0230 GMT June 20, 2010

· Natural gas mined by conventional means will run out in 2068 at current usage rates, but natural gas obtained by fracturing shale is good for at least another 60 years, says New Scientist. http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20627641.100-wonderfuel-welcome-to-the-age-of-unconventional-gas.html Environmentalists have concerns that the chemicals/steam injected into shale to create fractures may contaminate ground water.

· Meanwhile, the ITER fusion reactor is slated to become operational in 2018. Site preparation in France is complete and building construction will start this year. Current prediction is that fusion power may be ready for commercialization in the 2040s. of course, the target date has changed many times over the past four decades and could well change again. For example, in 2007 the start date was estimated as 2016, so in three years there has been a slippage of two years.

· http://www.iter.org/proj/ITERAndBeyond

· BP relief wells The first well has reached 200-meters from the blown-out well's pipe, but 1200-meters of drilling remains because the relief well has to be drilled at an angle. So the early-August date still stands.

· As of June 18 the first relief well was 4200-meters deep; the second relief well, being drilled as a backup, is at a depth of 2700-meters.

· The 60,000-bbl/day figure we quoted yesterday is an upper estimate; the lower bound is 35,000-bbl/day.

· Much of the oil leaked so far is dispersing below the surface of the water, but the worry is that the bacteria which break up oil underwater might get contaminated and contaminate the food chain.

· Meanwhile, Business Week says the going rate for a hand working on the cleanup is $300/day, and the daily charter rate for a large skimmer boat is $3400/day. The disaster cleanup is creating work for the watermen, but the problem is psychological. Watermen are an independent breed, and working for The Man is killing their pride.

· Editor can understand this: for 20 years he was an independent operator answering to just one person who he'd see once a year. The next 20 years have been spent working for one The Man or another. The injustice, unfairness, and plain exploitation he has encountered is astonishing, and the only thing that has kept him quiet was first he had to provide for his family; and then when the family became financially independent, to keep his house. The cost has been a shortening of his life-span by ten years because bowing your head and going on working keeps pouring nasty chemicals into your system and rewires your brain for the worse.

· But you know what? When he's at a low, Editor reminds himself this is life. He was incredibly lucky to be independent for 20 years, 99% of people in the world have to go through the same injustice, unfairness, and plain exploitation every day of their working life. So Editor's advice to the Gulf watermen whose pride is hurt is the same advice he gives himself: Get Over It.

· One thing is for sure: there is an explosion of experimentation going on right now on how to contain and clean up major oil spills. The lessons learned will serve us well.

· Meanwhile, can the media stop trying to generate outrage? President Obama was seen at a baseball game, and media is trying without much success to generate outrage. Anyone notice the man's title? Its President of the United States, not the C-on-C of the Cleanup, even if he has been responsible for giving people that impression. What is he supposed to do, live 24/7 in a tin hut on the Gulf coast with a camp cot, an outdoor privy, and a steno cooker? even the Big Guy Upstairs took the seventh day off after creating the universe. If President Obama chooses to spend his day off at a baseball game, what are his critics going to do? Impeach him.

· Same applies to Tony Hayward of BP. He was seen at a yacht race back home. One radio station we were listening to tried to generate outrage by asking a man on the Gulf coast what he thought of Hayward taking in a yacht race. The man said what difference did it make, it's not like Hayward could be plugging the leak with his finger.

· The family values set We read that those stalwart exponents of Family Values. Mr. Rush Limbaugh and Mr. Newt Gingrich, have between them been married seven times. As for Mrs. Sarah Palin, who we drool over (yes, men really are that shallow and what do women want to do about it, huh? huh? huh?) we read that not only was she letting her daughter cohabit with the boyfriend under Mrs. Palin's roof, but her half-sister is a criminal and the boyfriend's mother is a criminal. The two men are boring, near senile pseudo intellectuals, and of no interest to anyone. Mrs. Palin is, as far as we are concerned, another matter. We are happy to overlook her unfortunate taste in family and are rooting for her to become President of the US. (And yes, didn't we just say men are really that shallow? Like women's brains don't stop working when they see a good-looking man? Now if a woman were to retort: "Men have brains?" we'd have to concede she may have a point. As this is a family blog we refrain from giving the obvious snappy reply: "Sure men have brains, they're just not located in their heads".)

0230 GMT June 19, 2010

The usual rave and rant

(If readers want to be spared the Editor's raves and rants, why aren't they arranging weekend dates for him? Then he's be too busy to rave and rant. Actually, Editor is lying. Come 8 PM Editor would insist on going home to write the daily rant. Mrs. R the Fourth has a ten-thousand page list of reasons she took off - 6 point, single-space, ledger-size - but high on the list is the Editor's devotion to raving and ranting. Many a time Editor felt like saying "well, my dear, if you were more entertaining than the blog perhaps I would limit it to a few days a week," But though many a time Editor wanted to say that, it's truly below the belt. No matter how angry you are at someone there are still things you don't say. It's odd how things turn out. You can be completely crazy about someone for decades - and in fairness, both of us were - and still things don't work out. Not so odd, because if you're crazy about someone, you demand a very high standard of everything from them. The best marriages are based on mutual respect and low expectations. Okay, time to get with the raving and ranting - readers are not spending their time to read Editor's musings on his failed marriages, as his youngest once pointed out. Youngest will go far in life: he never lets his emotions get in the way of doing the right thing.)

· The oil well that refused to die The BP well that blew-out may be tapping an oil field of 1-billion barrels. We don't know that much oil geology, but wonder if the repeated failure to stop the flow - which now seems to have increased to 60,000-bbl/day - have to do with the well having an extreme pressure.

· We read that BP's legal liability for the damage is restricted to $50-million under US law. If this is true, we are sure BP is deeply regretting its emotional move to assume all responsibility for the ecological damage and to open its wallet. Aside from what it's already spent - about $1-billion - BP has committed $20-billion for cleanup. And the more BP does, the more the US Government asks it to do, and snap to it.

· One of the most absurd things we've heard this year is the US Government demand that BP pay for lost wages of crews on other Gulf of Mexico rigs for six months. So next time an airliner crashes and the type is grounded, presumably the manufacturer will be asked to pay for the loss of wages of other airline crews.

· Theatre of the absurd Americans are going hog wild over their hate for BP. This amounts to saying: "We can't live without the oil you produce, you had an accident, so we're going to crush you." Oil is a strategic resource. Forget the seductive music of the Green Machine, until someone comes up with a fuel of equal energy density and replaces the trillion-dollar plus infrastructure for oil production, we are going to be using oil. Every one of the Green Machines have their own ecological costs. The closest we may get to clean energy is N-power, which of course the American public won't accept even though the annual deaths from coal use exceed by a factor of ten thousands the deaths from using N-power.

· All that Americans are doing is lapping up political theatre. Sort of like Rome in its days of degeneracy.

· Yes, we don't doubt BP took shortcuts. Does it occur to the American people, whose technical knowledge these days extends to that of an octopus trying to design a supercomputer, that if 100% safety regs were followed all the time just about every industry would shut down?

· For example, multiple ten-thousands of people die each year in vehicle accidents and as many are seriously maimed. No one has designed a 100% safe car that is also economical to produce. Every day near 200-million Americans use their vehicles fully aware that they may not be returning home that evening. And we don't know how many Americans drive their cars under inadequate maintenance conditions, but we wager it will run to tens of millions. We also don't know how many Americans are driving their cars today drunk or sleep deprived or using cell-phones/texters. Every day people die because others are not following the safety rules. Car users are imposing huge costs on society just as BP is doing.

· Where's the protest? Where's the demand that we who use cars pay for the ecological damage we cause?

· We read letters to the editor in various papers with people telling the readers how much pain they are suffering when they saw the picture of the dead pelican. Let's be frank: the Editor also felt bad.

· So, how can we then find perfectly acceptable hunting and fishing with the carnage that causes?

· Here is a statistic you've seen before: perhaps as many as one billion small animals and hundreds of millions of birds are killed each year by people's wuvable puddy tats http://wildlife.wisc.edu/extension/catfly3.htm. The bulk of the estimated 100-million cats in the US are domesticated. There is no question of Nature Red In Tooth And Claw. We keep cats because we want to. Few humans would die if they were not allowed to keep cats. So where is America's outrage? Anyone asking for a ban on cats and damages against their owners?

0230 GMT June 18, 2010

· Pakistan In addition to the 40 Frontier Corps troops captured as reported by www,longwarjournal.org yesterday, the Taliban killed 10 other troops at the outpost.

· In another battle, also on Wednesday, the Pakistan Army said that 38 Taliban had been killed for 10 Frontier Corps dead 15-kilometers from the administrative HQ of Bajaur. Pakistan displayed 18 bodies.

· The point here is that Pakistan has twice claimed Bajaur secure, but the Taliban are back yet again, sending pamphlets around the place saying they will kill anyone who cooperates with the Government and the US. So we have to assume that Round Three has begun in Bajaur, and this continues the same old same old pattern of Pakistan saying it has secured a place but the Taliban return again and again.

· Long War Journal notes the oddity of the Afghan Taliban returning five Pakistani POWs unharmed to the Pakistan Consulate in Jalalabad, Afghanistan. Its as if that particular Taliban group is telling the Pakistan, "hey, no grudges, here's your men back."

· Here they go again...so media has been reporting that Israel says it will relax the Gaza blockade to allow all food items, stationary, towels, and mattresses.

· First, you have to wonder what kind of blockade this was that banned food, stationary, towels, and mattresses. We don't think many people really understand how extreme the blockade is.

· But before you rejoice - or if you support the blockade mourn, Haaretz of Israel says there were two statements issued Thursday. The one in English speaks of easing the blockade, the one in Hebrew makes no mention of this.

· Haaretz is trying to be kind by wondering if this is deliberate or due to clerical error. If it was a clerical error, we'd think Israel would have correct it immediately. When the world is parsing every word you say, it is an odd thing to happen unless it's intentional.

· http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/pmo-announces-plan-to-ease-gaza-siege-but-no-such-decision-made-1.296809

· Osama Bin Laden not hiding in Editor's basement say Orbat.com's intelligence sources.

· Editor felt compelled to issue this statement from sheer jealousy.

· You see, Debka.com says its sources have pinpointed OBL and his commanders as being in a particular mountain town in northeast Iran. Debka says its sources leaked the information to get back at the Turkish PM, because thanks to his close ties to Teheran he knows where OBL is and has not told the US about this. To quote Debka:

· Debkafile's counter-terror sources disclose that the purpose of airing their precise whereabouts at this time, aside from implicating the Turkish leader, was first, to warn al Qaeda's leaders that their hideout was blown and they had better move on - which would make them easier to catch; and, second, to nudge US president Barak Obama into a decision to go after them.

· A rare opportunity may now be building up to capture the world's most wanted terrorist, debkafile's counter-terror sources report. Last December, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates acknowledged the United States has not had any good intelligence on bin Laden's whereabouts in years. Until recently, the elusive master-terrorist was generally thought to have gone to ground in the wilder parts of Pakistan-Afghanistan border region.

· We are used to Debka.com's eccentric ways, but the statement above does leave us amazed at its brazen arrogance. The Israelis have discovered OBL and Company - natch, the Americans are so stupid the Israelis have to do their job for them, and instead of quietly telling the US, the Israelis have decided to leak the information to a Kuwaiti paper so that OBL's hideout is blown and now it will be easier for the US to catch him, and they leaked the information also to nudge President Obama into action.

· Gosh, you guys are the best. Thanks for finding OBL, and thanks for nudging President Obama to act.

· http://www.debka.com/article/8841/

· Long time ago, Editor and Mrs. R the Fourth rented a room on top of a garage (the "barsati") in a nice South Delhi locality. The house was occupied by a retired two-star military officer, his wife, and the wife's sister. The wife didn't want her husband running around while she was out for the day, so she'd hide his clothes. He'd have to spend the whole day dressed in a towel. Wife also would make sure the poor gent had no money to buy cigarettes. Since Mrs. R smoked, the retired officer would climb up to our little one room place to cadge cigarettes, dressed in the towel, and then Mrs. R and he would sit and companionably share a quiet smoke. Mrs. R was 17 at the time, the officer was in his sixties, but as you know, smokers have their own fraternity. Editor thought it a bit odd, but the towel thing didn't bug Mrs. R, and since it didn't bother her, it didn't bother the Editor.

· We set the stage just to show that the family was not quite - er - normal. When the retired officer was not upstairs smoking, he and the sister-in-law would fight all day long. We could never make out what he was saying, bet she'd chase him around the house shouting "You are maaaaaaad! Maaaaaaaad! Completely maaaaad!" It sounded exactly like a bleating sheep.

· When we read the Debka story, we had this urge to run around the room shouting: "Debka is maaaaaad! Absolutely maaaaaad! Maaaaaad!"

· And you were thinking there was no point to Editor's story. Never, ever assume he does not have a point.

0230 GMT June 17, 2010

Hizbul Islam faction in southern Somalia defects to Shabaab
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/06/hizbul_islam_faction.php#ixzz0r4BSaIRK

· India Army reorienting 5 divisions for Maoist insurgency Okay, what is going on here? One minute the army says it doesn't want to get involved in the Maoist counterinsurgency, and alerts 8 battalions of specialized CI troops from the Rashtriya Rifles for possible deployment to aid the civilian paramilitary and police forces. The next minute comes this report from Times of India, and it shows the Army is getting ready to intervene http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Army-training-50000-men-to-tackle-Naxals/articleshow/6056573.cms Times of India says Army is preparing even though the Government has not made a decision on calling in the Army.

· But if you read the article, the Army is undertaking detailed preparations even to the extent of retraining armor and artillery units. Four experienced Army brigadiers with CI experience in Kashmir and the northeast have been selected as liaison officers for the four insurgency hit states; and Central Command, under whose AOR the four states fall, has stepped up intelligence gathering.

· Sorry, but the Army cannot even change the toilet paper it orders without government approval; there is no other major army in the world that is kept on as tight a leash by its civilian masters as the Indian Army - and we include the US when we say "no other major army". There is simply no way the Army is doing any of this unless the Government has overruled the Army's objections and ordered it to get ready.

· So where are these five divisions to come from? They are mainly from the three plains strike corps. Is it a good idea to divert armor and artillery and mechanized infantry units to CI training thus severely reducing the readiness of the strike corps? We don't think so.

· Okay, so the Pakistan Army's readiness for a war against India is also very severely compromised by its CI commitment, but that's no reason to muck up the Indian Army's training.

· From the size of the deployment, its obvious the Army is preparing for a blitz. Assuming we agreed with the decision to use the Army, and we are 100% opposed, this is a sensible strategy. India's classic non-strategy has been to feed troops in by fits and starts, always in insufficient numbers to gain the upper hand immediately. That's one reason it takes the army forever and a day to get on top of insurgencies - notice we're saying get on top of, not defeat the insurgencies because the defeat part does take years.

· Somewhere around 1969-70 - Editor was not in India at that time - Army sent two divisions against the predecessors of the Maoists in West Bengal, and with excellent police intelligence plus some dirty pool by the West Bengal government, the Naxalites were quickly crushed. They took two decades to recover.

· (The dirty pool was that the Communist government of West Bengal loosed its cadres against the Naxalites, who were then hunted down and killed wherever they were found. In case you're waiting for us to condemn the West Bengal government, you'll be disappointed. CI is an extraordinarily brutal game because the insurgents hide in the sea of the people. You don't solve insurgencies, except tiny little ones like Northern Ireland, by capturing insurgents, reading them their Miranda rights, and taking them for trial in the civil courts. What the West Bengal government did was possible only because it had very highly motivated cadres who were ready to kill and be killed.

· (Now if you're going to ask us what one communist state government, West Bengal, was doing killing other communists, you have to get the answer from someone more knowledgeable.

· (And in case our American readers get sentimental about the massive violation of civil rights, might be a good idea to go back and study your own Revolutionary and Civil Wars. Don't want to go back that far? Okay, how about the Occupation of Germany. Orders were to shoot on sight any German carrying a weapon. A lot of teenaged German boys were gunned down. American troops were NOT happy about it, but everyone understood that it was war. And it sure put an end right quick to any thoughts the Germans may have had of fighting a guerilla war. If the Americans had been kind-hearted, they could have ended up with a big mess, and had to kill many more Germans in the end.

· (Oh yes: if you're squeamish, don't ask about the Anglo-American campaign to clear Greece of the communists after the World War ended. The Americans did not contribute troops to the occupation of Greece, it being a British responsibility, but US intelligence was up to its neck in the affair. And we believe US acted exactly the way it should have. What liberals don't understand is that (a) freedom is not free; and (b) when someone is trying to destroy freedom and not abiding by the Marquis of Queensberry Rules, you can't either. Americans are great ones for talking about human rights in places like Indian Kashmir. Lets see how they would react if for 25 years Canada - or Mexico - kept sending armed insurgents across the US border to attack US law officers, military, and civilians alike.)

· Okay. End of rant, we've made our point, Government of India is not going to listen to us, but we'd still like to know why one day the Indian Government was saying "these are our people, they have genuine grievances, we must treat them gently..." all of which we agree with, and the next day tell the Army to ready the combat battalions of five divisions to prepare for action against the same "our people."

· BTW, we are not getting sentimental about the Maoists: the cadres are ruthless, merciless purveyors of oppression in the name of equity and justice. They need to be shot. But no one has found a way to kill an insurgent cadre without killing ten others who are involved in supporting the cadres because the insurgents will kill them if they don't cooperate. You see the problem.

· Maybe tomorrow it will turn out the Times of India has completely misreported the situation. We hope.

· 35 Pakistan Frontier Corps troops missing after their outpost was overrun by Afghan Taliban, says Dawn of Karachi quoting the official military spokesperson. Forty were captured, but five were released to the Pakistan mission in Jalalabad.

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/06/hizbul_islam_faction.php

0230 GMT June 16, 2010

· First versus Second Amendment: Duh! Readers Stephen Singer and J. Cooper both write in to point out we should have been talking of the First Amendment (speech) and not Second Amendment (right to bear arms) in our rant yesterday. Is a vast and increasing old age an adequate excuse for the Editor? Probably not, At least we are clear about the 28th Amendment, which gives the American people to endlessly demand rights while freeing them from all duties. And you were thinking we didn't know our US Constitution.

· Times London website is becoming a subscription site. Pity. There is almost always good stuff in the Times. We understand their imperatives, but for free sites like this blog it becomes a problem to pay for content.

· Afghanistan's $1-trillion worth of minerals including lithium, gold, silver, and iron ore is attracting a jaundiced eye from the New York Times and we think it has a point. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/14/world/asia/14minerals.html

· The NYTsays that (a) there's nothing new about this news, the Soviets having done the original work on finding the metals, with the US using that work; (b) instead of giving a boost to Afghanistan's paltry $12-billion GDP, the deposits could create worse problems.

· For one, the Taliban now have reason to fight even harder, and if they take over the country again - which Editor believes is a foregone conclusion - the deposits would give the pariah regime new legitimacy and money.

· For another, this is going to increase Afghan corruption, which already is a major problem.

· Last, this could pull in the Chinese, which will make America very unhappy.

· This last point we disagree with. China has become the dominant foreign force in Iraq oil, the US has been shut out, and we don't hear the US complaining about it. What the NYT could have added is that given the security situation in Afghanistan, US private enterprise will not investment, whereas the Chinese firms will come in with 100% backing from their government, and will take whatever casualties they have to. This is the reason US has been shut out of Iraq oil.

· Israel agrees to relax Gaza blockade says Haartez of Israel. The deal was worked out between Tony Blair and the Israeli Prime Minister, who is submitting it for cabinet approval today.

· So: assuming the cabinet approves without substantially modifying the agreement, this is what it entails. "It contains three main elements: formulation of a blacklist of goods and supplies that will not be allowed into Gaza, particularly items that could be put to use in manufacturing weapons; Israel’s acquiescence to the entry of building materials for UN-sponsored construction projects; and Israel’s agreement to consider stationing European Union as well as Palestinian Authority monitors at border crossings to inspect incoming goods."

· The head of Shin Bet has declared his absolute opposition to the deal, and we can expect that this will give Israel the excuse to dilute the deal.

· But if you look at it closely, there's a lot of wriggle room. Anything Israel considers as useful for making weapons will remain banned. Israel will "consider" stationing EU and PA monitors. Israel will still have the right overrule the EU monitors, and as for the Palestine Authority, forget it. Hamas is not going to let Fatah into Gaza, the PA now being restricted to the West Bank. Re. the UN-approved construction projects, Israel will retain the right of veto as to what it considers a legitimate UN project and what not. Rebuilding a school maybe - but maybe not, because Israel can argue Gaza schoolchildren are taught to hate Israel. Rebuilding a police station - we think not, because that strengthens Hamas. Rebuilding homes - well, what business does the UN have in that area. and so on.

· The Israeli hard right is going to go ballistic, and even assuming the Israeli PM is genuine, it will seriously limit his freedom of maneuver. If he is not genuine, he will use his cabinet and coalition as his excuse to dilute the agreement - which to us looks so dilute already that its got terminal anemia.

· We hate to be so negative, but we remain suspicious as to why the Israelis are all sweetness and light of a sudden. They didn't even bother drawing out the negotiations with Mr. Blair into a year or two after promising to permit a few more essentials as an appeasement to its critics.

0230 GMT June 15, 2010

· Letter from reader Agneya on interpretations of the Holy Koran Reader Agneya and Editor have been debating on the side. Editor said that just as you can interpret the Bible in many different ways - and the many sects of Christianity show that - you can also interpret the Koran in different ways. Therefore, we can blame the extremists but not the religion. This is Reader Agneya's reply.

· I respectfully disagree on the Quran, for it clearly states the following: http://www.usc.edu/schools/college/crcc/engagement/resources/texts/muslim/quran/004.qmt.html#004.150

· "Surely those who disbelieve in Allah and His messengers and (those who) desire to make a distinction between Allah and His messengers and say, "We believe in some and disbelieve in others", and desire to take a course between (this and) that - These it is that are truly unbelievers, and We have prepared for the unbelievers a disgraceful chastisement. Quran 4:150-151"

· There are a couple of other verses similar to this, that in plain language are best understood in the 'extremist' manner. This is a verse that promotes literalism, because it does not allow for a 'middle way.' In my opinion, the people who are reading into the Quran what suits them are those such as the 'Moderate Muslims', who claim that Islam is a tolerant or respectful religion of others. While actual verses pertaining to physical violence is not a major part of the Quran, there are two central themes that display the intolerance. The first involve the verses declaring that unbelievers will receive the hellfire when they die, due to their unbelief. The second is that the Gods of unbelievers are false, and Allah is the only true God.

· This is intolerance, disrespect and hatred. I could quote hundreds of verses of the Quran to the effect, let alone the Hadiths. Because of the sheer repetition of these proclamations, it is safe to say that those are tenets of the Islamic religion.

· Now, we could say that the Bible too says there only one God; at this point we suspect the counterargument will be that the Bible says those who do not believe in Jesus will not be saved; it does not say it is A-OK to slaughter those who do not believe in Christ. Ditto the Old Testament and other religions.

· Reader Agneya also said in our offside debate that while we can speak of moderate Muslims, the true believers say the moderates are not Muslims at all, ergo, it's okay to kill them too.

· Editor claims to be expert on no religion, but if Reader Agneya's interpretation is correct, exponents of liberal democracy - including us - are caught in a quandary. As liberals we want to respect everyone's viewpoint. But what do we do when the other person's viewpoint is that he has to convert you, failing which, to kill you?

· Older Orbat.com readers might remember the same debate from Communist days. You had a 2nd amendment right to be a communist and preach your religion, as long as you kept it only words. People would say: "You have a right to speak, but that does not mean you have a right to be protected from the consequences of your speech." Thus, for example, I may be a nativist, but if at my work I shout "foreigners go home!" both my employer and I can be sanctioned under the law. I may believe homosexuality is counter to God's will, and I can stand on the street corner or buy media time and say so to my heart's content, but neither I nor the state can infringe on the rights of a homosexual. I may believe in the supremacy of the white man, but I cannot go around saying "Kill non-whites" and then claim my 2nd Amendment right. Under civil rights laws I can be sanction for having said that, even though technically its my constitutional right to say that.

· Thus in the case of the Koran, we come up against the old problem: when does A's freedom of religion infringe B's freedom of religion? When do C's civil rights infringe D's?

· It occurs to Editor that it's not just the Islamic theocracy need to debate this business of is to right to kill someone just because he has a different religious viewpoint, including a fellow Muslim who may disagree with you. We official and (in our case) unofficial priests of the Liberal Theocracy also need to have a debate. Is there something intrinsic to Islam that causes its strictest believers to kill; if so, what do we about it?

· Letter from Legal Eagle on our comments about Uncle Sam is a weasel because he pretends to be India's friend and then makes a deal with Headley behind India's back that he will not be extraditited.

· I think your criticism of both the US and Indian governments in this matter is off the mark. Firstly, power in American government is extremely decentralized, so it is a safe bet that there was no master plan by the US government to screw the Indians in the way that you suggest.

· The initial decision to prosecute Headly and then offer him a plea deal was made by Patrick Fitzgerald, the US Attorney in Chicago. By way of background, remember that Patrick Fitzgerald is the Bush-appointed US Attorney who convicted Scooter Libby and came within a hair's breath of indicting Karl Rove. Obama kept him in place, and so this guy is just about as untouchable as anyone can get.

· Fitzgerald reached this plea deal with Headley after consulting the Assistant Attorney General in the Criminal Division or Assistant Attorney General in the National Security Division, both of whom are 3 or 4 rungs down the food chain from the Attorney General. Fitzgerald would also have to consult with the so-called "Death Committee." This is an obscure group of bureaucratic worthies who get involved anytime the government has to make a plea deal relating to death-eligible offenses. This is how most federal prosecutions occur, even very high profile ones.

· This the long way of saying that given the catastrophes of George Bush and Alberto Gonzales trying to meddle with the US Attorneys, I think the politicians have become every more wary of interefering with whatever the US Attorney happens to be doing.

· Pat Fitzgerald probably did not consult with Attorney General Holder, and certainly did not consult with President Obama about prosecuting Headley -- So, why should he consult with the Indian Government? Also, Pat Fitzgerald, being a smart guy, probably knew that the Indian justice system is notoriously slow. Granted, we now know that it worked very quickly in the Kassab case, but I think it was reasonable for Pat Fitzgerald to assume that the Indians would take forever to get their criminal prosecution going. Why waste time, he probably thought to himself. We have jurisdiction in the US to prosecute Headley, because six US citizens were among the 200 or so dead, let's go ahead and do it, lest we run afoul of the statute of limitations or the Speedy Trial Act. Once US authorities captured Headley, the alternative was just to let him go, since you can't hold someone indefinitely. Once someone is arrested, you have to move relatively quickly to trial, plea, or dismissal. To the extent you see long delays in the federal criminal justice system, they occur because the defense is trying to slow things down.

· Obama, Hillary, Eric Holder, and Tim Roember (US Amb to India) only got involved in this after the Indians, starting with Manmohan Singh, began complaining loudly to them directly. But, by that time the US Government is bound to a plea deal.

· OK -- so there is a plea deal with Headley, which makes for some interesting reading. You can see it at
http://www.justice.gov/usao/iln/pr/chicago/2010/pr0318_01a.pdf

· The plea bars Headley's extradition to India and takes the death penalty off the table. Headley agrees to cooperate and agrees to life in jail.

· As to giving Indian investigators access to Headley, this is something that would have to be negotiated with Headley and his lawyers. Remember, just giving access is pointless. Headley has an absolute right to keep his mouth shut (5th amendment) If the US wanted to take the easy way out, they could have told the Indians, come to US and spend all the time you want asking Headley anything you want. Headley would have sat there mute and Indian investigators would have more luck asking questions of a brick wall. So, it probably took some time to work something out with Headley and his attorneys, because cooperating with Indian authorities may not have been part of the original plea deal. The Indians have now been given access, and I understand that they are less than thrilled about the circumstances and timing, but there it is. Such are the downsides of the civilian justice system.

· First, Editor should emphasize he is enraged with the Indian Government for letting the US get away with being judge, jury, and executioner re. Mr. Headley. If US claims it has sole rights to try him because Headley's conspiracy killed six Americans, then we can set a market exchange rate and say one American killed is worth more than 25 Indians killed, because Mr. Headley and his pals killed 150 Indians. At which point we'd say to the US: "you are no partner in the GWOT", and we'd say to the Indian Government "can you truly disgusting people just hold your breath till you die?"

· Legal Eagle is in a position to know better than we, but if the White House didn't have time to even think of the Indians before the Indians started hollering, then this White House has less regard for India than an elephant taking a major dump has for the ant on the ground. Triple smacks for the White House for claiming it respects India, and triple cubed smacks to the Indian government for putting up with this.

· Legal Eagle is correct that under US civil law you cannot hold a person beyond a short time without charges. This is different from many European countries and India where in terrorism cases remand can be extended.

· But we are not denying the US the right to charge Headley. We're saying India has the greater claim on him and the US could have held him on something minor till India got an Interpol warrant sworn out. Instead, the US kept India out of everything, until the plea deal was agreed on, and then gave access to Headley with the latter having the right to remain silent. Was the US prosecutor really concerned about delays in the Indian justice system being unfair to poor widdle snookums Mr. Headley?

· We doubt that. Indeed, we think its much more probable that the Prosecutor through his minions made sure to tell Mr. Headley: "Cooperate, or else we'll turn you over the Indians, and they'll welcome you with their special cocktail for scumbags like yourself - ground glass with water to go."

· Why did the US prosecutor rush to push a plea bargain? Did he not have sufficient evidence to win in a US court? More the reason to turn him over to India.

· Incidentally, as far as we know the prosecutor can make any deal he wants, the court does not have to accept it.

· So. What is that we are saying here? That the US thinks only of itself and its ally India can take precedence after Lady Gaga but before Mickey Mouse. That unless the Indians stand up for themselves, you cannot expect to sit there and whine about this not being right.

· We are reminded of a seminar in the 1970s at the Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses in the 1970s. Those were bad days for US-India relationships, and Americans were not welcome at a think tank 100% funded by the Ministry of Defense.

· But there was an American at the seminar on the Indian Ocean. The Indians went hammer and tongs at the man, telling him the US had no right to be in the Indian Ocean and it should leave.

· Whereupon, the visiting American rolled up his sleeves, leaned back in his chair, and said: "make us".

· Will the Government of India get the point of this anecdote or do we have to spell it out in one-syllable words? Drawings? Sign language? Donkey grunts? Marking trees with Panther Pee Number 5?

0230 GMT June 14, 2010

· The Saudi fatwa against terror Coincidentally just yesterday we mentioned the Saudis as the primary source of money for Islamic extremists. Then in yesterday's Washington Post was an article by David Ignatius saying the highest cleric in the Kingdom had issued a fatwa against terror, and since this cleric supersedes everyone else, others have to listen to him.

· Sez who, Charles? Anyone who thinks that extremists groups listen to the self-appointed head of Islam must have been in the sun too long. Anyone who thinks this will stop the Saudi royals and other rich citizens from funding terror has been eating too much sugar.

· There is nothing religious about Islamic fundamentalism. It is a pure grab for power, using religion as a cover. Just as there are many interpretations of the Bible, there are many of the Koran. People read into both what they want. The last thing any terrorist leader is worried about is the Islamic equivalent of excommunication for heresy.

· But there is another problem, and this is with Mr. Ignatius himself. Whenever he has written about Pakistan and Afghanistan, he has quoted chapter and verse what the Pakistanis tell him. He does not investigate for himself, and nor does he listen to what other may tell him, particularly if they happen to be US military. He must be the only journalist in the world that is convinced the Pakistanis are now all-out against the Taliban and on the American side. He has even said the Pakistan Army does not support the Taliban. His evidence? The Pakistanis told him so.

· So: we are not taking too seriously Mr. Ignatius says about the Saudis.

· Yet another problem. Does anyone think the Saudis issued this fatwa to stop Islamic extremists around the world? The Saudis are concerned about their domestic terrorists, who despite Saudi's every effort to keep them overseas, have repeatedly struck inside the Kingdom.

· Are the Saudi extremists fighting because they think the Kingdom is insufficiently Islamic? No, they are fighting - sorry about this, people - because the House of Saud oppresses everyone in the Kingdom.

· As such, this fatwa is self-serving. In any case, it has zero meaning to Shia extremists, and it will be ignored by Sunni extremists from Somalia to the Philippines.

· Whatever else Pakistan's ISI may be doing today, we bet it is not saying "OMG! The Saudi head person has spoken and we must stop our terror activities." Like others, the Pakistanis use the cover of religion to pursue political purposes. We don't think a single ISI officer, or a single Pakistan or Afghan Taliban leader is going to change course because of the fatwa, and we really wish Mr. Ignatius had talked to other people before saying the fatwa undercuts the terror groups.

· As the Beegees used to say, "It's only words...".

· Headlines from Haaretz of Israel (Haartez is a left-leaning newspaper). (a) Israelis to include two "renown" foreign observers in the investigation of events when the Turkish aid ship ran the Israeli blockade. (b) IDF chief saying the military is studying the incident to learn how to better deal with repeats. (c) Tony Blair says he hopes for an easing of the blockade in the next few days.

· Latest USAF - Is.AF fighter exercise http://www.jpost.com/Israel/Article.aspx?id=178133 The exercises include netting a US Army Patriot battery into the Israeli air defense system as well as unspecified maneuvers with USAF and Is. AF F-16s.

· Debka.com says Saudi strike corridor story is old news London Times on June 12 apparently said the Saudis have offered Israel and US a safe corridor through the Kingdom for a strike against Iran. Debka further says the Saudis are bringing attention by leaking the old news as new news, but neither Israel nor US has the heart to make a strike because of the turmoil between Israel and Turkey and the fallout from the Turkish ship incident. You got that right, 'bro. Courage is a short commodity in Washington these days. Of course we can say this because it isn't us who will have to handle the brouhaha that will result from a strike. http://debka.com/article/8845/

· Nonetheless, this may be the time remember Old Princey's advisor, Machiavelli. The Big M had a simple formulation for how to go about doing things that will be unpopular: strike hard, strike fast, strike without mercy, and people will get over it.

0230 GMT June 13, 2010

· And the winner for Iraq oil is...China, no guessing needed. Many people, including many Americans, believed the US had invaded Iraq for its oil. No matter how much logic one tried to bring into the debate, few changed their mind.

· You see, US did not have to invade Iraq for its oil. For one thing, people are not in the imperial colony business any more. For another, if US wanted favorable access to oil, it didn't need to overthrow Saddam. It had only to make quiet deals with him and then get the UN embargo - or should we say US embargo - lifted. if one says Cheney wanted to benefit Halliburton, the same reasoning applies: work with Saddam, and you grow rich.

· We've in the past pointed out that US companies are not benefiting from access to Iraq oil. China, and to a lesser extent, India are the gainers. Now comes an article forwarded by Reader Marcopetroni http://www.asianews.it/news-en/Great-opportunities-for-Chinese-oil-firms-in-Iraq-18660.html

· Read it and weep. The United States has fought a war and then a bitter counterinsurgency, throwing in a trillion dollars or more when the final bills come due, to do what? To benefit China, which is becoming America's competitor around the world. China is already consuming 40% as much oil as the US, and it will soon be up to 45%. That upper percentage is 9-million+ barrels a day.

· So, people, to those who see sinister American conspiracies everywhere: you can relax. If you won't believe us when we say Gulf II was not about oil, you can be comforted by the sad, pathetic reality that the US is about as competent in its machinations as a 1-year-old infant.

· (Sorry, didn't mean to insult 1-year-olds, because they are more competent than the US, at least in the matter of Iraqi oil.)

· Readers may remember that we originally thought the reason for Gulf II was to give the US a base to take down the Saudi Arabia regime, which finances much of the world's Islamic terrorism to this day. Stupid us. We have been forced by events to accept the explanation President Bush gave: he wanted to bring democracy to the Islamic world. Great job, Sir. Great job. By taking down the bulwark against the Iranians, you seriously weakened the US.

· Agreed Iraq is probably the most politically democratic country in the Middle East. But was it our business to spend a trillion bucks and fight a war to do that, and in the end helping the rise of China and Iran, those great bulwarks of democracy?

· Musings on if India should pull the Army off CI in Kashmir Rajat Pandit has an article in India Times http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Home/Sunday-TOI/Special-Report/Under-Siege-20-yrs-of-AFSPA-in-JK/articleshow/6042421.cms telling how the Indian Army wants to get out of the CI business in Kashmir, but cannot because the Pakistan fueled insurgency continues and the paramilitary forces have lost ground each time they have been put in charge after the Army withdraws from an area.

· Any CI, indeed, any war, results in excessive use of force against civilians, who are not in all case simply innocent bystanders. Nonetheless, Kashmir is no exception. But one thing India can take pride in. It does punish its officers and men if they use excessive force. Forty officers - including some flag officers - have been punished during the course of the Kashmir insurgency. Naturally that is no comfort to those families who were truly innocent. But the civilian toll has been far lower than that in Afghanistan, Iraq, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan.

· Mr. Pandit notes that in Iraq there is one soldier per 166 people, in Kashmir its been 1 per 20. We'll leave aside that even when Kashmir was completely at peace, 400,000 soldiers and paramilitary forces were stationed there purely for external defense, plus there were 50,000 state police and armed police for policing. Mr. Pandit's general point is valid.

· But: the reason India has been able to get by using little by way of firepower, thus minimizing civilian casualties, is precisely because of the high armed forces to civilian ratio. Because Pakistan is fighting with a ratio of one security person to four insurgents, it has had to use firepower which every day inflicts severe civilian losses. Pakistan has managed to control the news about the wide extent of the damage done to villages because to begin with the area in hard to access, and going there without military escort is basically saying you are tired of living.

· Surely Kashmiris feel oppressed by the large number of security forces in the state. But they haven't come up with any good ideas as to the alternative. "Give us freedom" say many Kashmiris. Really? Think about it. On a per capita basis Kashmir gets upward if ten times as much government help as any part of India.

· Oh, so you don't want the money? Okay, so why don't you talk about independence for the Valley alone, seeing as Jammu is Hindu majority and Ladakh is Buddhists, Shias with no love for Pakistan, and Hindus?

· And when you talk of independence, how long do you think it will take before the Pakistanis arrive? We estimate 24 hours after the Indians leave.

· Don't believe us? Well, lets look at Pakistan Kashmir. Islamabad has removed the Northern Areas from what was Jammu and Kashmir. They are no longer part of the equation. Then look at how much freedom your brother has living in what you call Azad Kashmir, or Free Kashmir. Can he demonstrate against the Pakistan Government? Can he agitate for independence? Can he demand that the insurgents Pakistan trains as "Kashmiris" - few were and now even fewer are - be thrown out? Can he protest human rights violations by the Pakistan security forces? Indeed, can he even talk about them?

· Asking for independence for Pakistan Kashmir is against Pakistan's rules. Pakistan says that all Kashmir belongs to it. Does that look like someone who will let you be independent? No, for the very simple reason if Pakistan permits an independent Kashmir tomorrow, Pakistan will disintegrate the day after.

· The same thing could conceivably happen to India. Then we'd be back to the period of the 200 kingdoms or 500 kingdoms or 1000 kingdoms, and does anyone really want that?

· Even the US almost disintegrated in 1861 - and its people were of the same ethnic stock, spoke the same language, and worshipped a common deity. It took the worst war the US has ever been involved in to keep the United States united.

· India and Pakistan need to come together, particularly at a time when the barbarians have crossed the Indus and breached the gates of West Punjab and Sindh. You can argue all you want, but geostrategy is implacable. The natural defense of South Asia requires Afghanistan and Tibet as buffers. By the time invaders reached the Indus, there was little to stop them because the attacker can always get across a river, particular one that is very long.

· In 2010, both buffers have gone. And West Punjab and Sindh are coming under intolerable pressure. As will West Kashmir in a very few years. The Taliban hate moderate Islam more than the hate the infidel. And Kashmiris, despite the wars and crises they have endured for 65 years, are among the most moderate of Muslims.

· Always, always, always there has been a common theme in South Asia. The people divide against themselves, seek foreign intervention to strengthen their position, and the next thing you know, the foreigners are ruling. Do we really have to repeat the dismal history of 3000 years?

0230 GMT June 12, 2010

· The Battle of Kandahar is lost before it begins Answer this question: who is the warlord of Kandahar? Answer: Hamid Karzai's brother, probably the most corrupt person in Afghanistan. Another question: under whose protection does the warlord of Kandahar operate? Why, under his brother's.

· But even with the brother, the battle is lost. The key to Kandahar, as it was to Marja, is the coalition clears the area of insurgents, the Afghan government arrives to provide governance; bit by bit the government wins over insurgents and locals alike by providing an honest administration responsive to the needs of the people, facilities, and jobs.

· So we've seen how well the coalition has cleared out the insurgents in Marja, and we've seen the high standard of governance provides by the Afghans.

· After you pick yourself off the floor, where you've been rolling with laughter, ask yourself: if neither the coalition nor the Afghan government have been effective in Marja, a small town, what are the odds they will succeed in Kandahar, a major city and the home of the Taliban?

· And add Hamid's brother, who will not let the Coalition touch his rackets, and against whose wishes the already ineffectual Afghan government will not do a darn thing, and you have a battle lost before it begins.

· If you see what's happening in Afghanistan, you'll understand why the US military is 100% against reinstating the draft. The professional US military has shown its ability to endure years and years of astonishingly stupid political and military leadership, all without a complaint. Do you think we would have been in Iran seven years and in Afghanistan nine years had we still had the draft?

· We don't think so.

· Mexico So 30 men attacked a drug rehab clinic, and murdered 19 patients after making them lie face down on the floor. The dead included a blind man.

· So in another city armed men attacked and killed 18 men and two women over a one day period.

· It's all about drug turf, say the media.

· So, folks: any particular reason we're worrying about Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia, Yemen, the Mideast, Hugo of Venezuela, Kim of Korea and so on? Seems to Orbat.com there is a war raging much closer to home.

· First of several ships to depart Iran for Gaza says the Palestine News Network. The ship was to sail yesterday. Many other ships are expected to join in this second attempt to break the blockade. according to the PNN, the Iranian prime minister has said the Iranian boats will not shrink from a confrontation with the Israelis.

· If this is bluster, maybe all will be peaceful. But are the Iranians blustering, and will they meekly heave to when ordered, suffering a big humiliation in the eyes of the world?

· Meanwhile, the EU says it is ready to assume responsibility for checking vessels bound for Gaza, and also offers to take control of the Rafah land crossing into Gaza. we'd be surprised if the Israelis agree.

0230 GMT June 11, 2010

· Israel realizes the Gaza blockade is counterproductive and strengthen only Hamas, says the New York Times. But read the article at http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/11/world/middleeast/11gaza.html?ref=middleeast and you will readily see Israel is out of ideas how to ease the blockade while still keeping out material it deems useful to Hamas's fighting potential. On the current banned list: cocoa, malt, shortening, syrup, wrapping material and boxes. Obviously the Israelis know this is by no stretch of the imagination war material, but it allows food factories to start working again. The Israelis really do understanding by wiping out the possibility of jobs, far from getting the people to rise against Hamas, it has made Hamas stronger. For example, Hamas frequently grabs aid and gives first priority to its own supporters. You want food and basic medicine etc., you become Hamas. So how to make sure if aid restrictions are eased, its not Hamas that benefits?

· We haven't the faintest idea and neither do the Israelis.

· Go back to where you belong A reader asks: "Wasn't Egypt the homeland of the Jewish people before they escaped Pharonic tyranny by fleeing to Palestine? If we are to go back to first causes, shouldn't the Israeli homeland be Egypt?"

· This is a complicated question. The thing is that it was the Zionists who began buying up land in Palestine from the turn of the 20th Century with the idea of creating an Israeli homeland. They used the Old Testament as their justification that God gave them that homeland. They were not concerned that other people's Gods may say differently; nor were they interested in what happened before the Exodus.

· (Jews are remarkable in that have not just a sense of history going back millennia, they have managed to record that history and keep it intact, as well as keep their traditions intact. To them the destruction of the Temple in Jerusalem in 70 AD - as an example - is not ancient history. To the true believers, it may as well have happened yesterday. Some may argue that to the Jews even the Exodus is not ancient history.)

· By no means are all Jews Zionists: we stand to be corrected, but we don't think more than a small percentage are.

· In his 20 years in India, Editor often argued for the reuniting of India as there was no legal basis for Partition - the last act of an imperial power scurrying away into the night - with bagpipes playing, of course - cannot be considered legitimate. Just because Nehru and Jinnah accepted Partition means nothing. They were the leaders of their political parties, but you cannot say: "We were elected in a routine election and this gives us the right to speak for all the peoples of the sub-continent regarding the division of the sub-continent." At the very minimum a national referendum was needed. Short of that, the British act is illegal.

· Each time he'd make that argument, his American and British friends would say: "For heavens sake, that happened 25, 30, 40 years ago. How can what is done be undone?"

· At that point it never occurred to Editor that both the Americans and British were saying that because they didn't want their bull gored. Look at how America came into being: Land grabbed from native tribes, a quiet deal made with a despotic Russian government, a highly suspicious - in modern terms - deal made with the French Emperor who, as far as many are concerned, was illegitimate because he and his overthrew the French Republic, a very peculiar land grab of Mexican territory by American settlers invited to farm the land and pay taxes to Mexico, etc.

· As for the British, well, we know how they did it: war, blood, and conquest. The English took over Scotland, Ireland, and Wales - by conquest and not by democratic means, though to give them full credit, the English are perfectly prepared to reverse centuries of history by letting these countries go if that is what they want.

· When it came to the Soviet Union, the west had no qualms about supporting the independence of states like Ukraine which had been part of Russia for 400 years.

· So to say history cannot be undone is silly. It can.

· The pertinent point, however, is who is going to undo it? You can stand up all day and holler: "Israelis go back to Europe or Egypt or whatever", and you can holler all day: "White settlers, give us Indians and Mexicans back our land", and Editor can holler all day: "Reunite India" and what are you going to achieve?

· Zippo, nada, nufing and fuggedabhatit.

· The other pertinent point, as Reader Bhali has asked, how far back do you want to go?

· Now if you really want to get crazy funky about this question, as far as Editor knows there is just one claimant for the entire darn world. That is the African Eve, the mother of us all regardless of our color today, who left Africa with a group of perhaps 20 others perhaps as long as 200,000 years ago and so populated the world. She probably lived in Southern Africa, so her claim predates everyone elses.

· (By the way, can the Yanks and Brits please read Indian history before they say: "Before Britain there was no India?" Its tiresome explaining to people that the British-Indian Empire was just another Indian empire of many that came and went, like a lamp in the wind.)

0230 GMT June 10, 2010

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/06/taliban_destroy_nato_2.php

Read the above article not because of the attack on NATO trucks, not a big deal in itself, but because LWJ discusses larger issues such as the Taliban in the Punjab and ramification of an attack so close to Islamabad.

Taliban still strong in Orakzai

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/06/taliban_overrun_fron.php

· BP collecting 15,000-bbl day and by next week should be at 28,000-bbl. We lack the knowledge to explain why an initial estimate of 5,000-bbl/day has increased that much, so until we learn more we aren't going to comment. We don't think the matter is as simple as saying BP lied.

· The Times of London says that when BP cut the pipe to fit the cap, apparently oil flow increased by many times, and may reach 100,000-bbl/day. The "top kill" effort seems to have also increased the flow. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article7146713.ece

· We still don't understand why people keep calling for the US Government to take charge of the leak. What is it the US government will do that BP isn't already doing? And since when did the US Government become skilled at staunching deep-seal oil leaks? The incident commander, Admiral Thad Allen said the first time people started demanding the US Government take over that the government did not have the equipment or the expertise. Why are people not listening to him?

· Agreed this is one major catastrophe. But are people so ignorant of the basics of engineering that they think its only a lack of will or politics or greed or whatever that's preventing a quick resolution of the issue? Or is this just another manifestation of America's "I want it now" psychosis?

0230 GMT June 9, 2010

· Reader Lou D wonder if Iran creates an incident when it tries to run the Israeli blockade of Gaza, would this suffice to give Israel a sufficient causus belli to retaliate and attack Iran's N-weapon program? This is worth thinking about, we think.

· Can Israelis go back to where they belong? The veteran American journalist, 89-year old Helen Thomas, stated she wanted the Jews to leave Palestine and go from where they came, for example, Germany and Poland. Thomas is of Lebanese descent and a long-time Israeli-phobe. People suggest she got a pass for so long because of her age and status as senior-most White House correspondent - she has been a White House correspondent through ten presidents. After her news agency canceled her contract, she resigned.

· A minor problem with Ms. Thomas's view is that 65 years after the end of World War II, right or wrong, the Israeli homeland is in Palestine.

· The major problem is that many European Jews did try and go home after the war. Many hundreds were killed and everyone made clear they were unwelcome back, largely, we suspect, because others had taken their homes, estates, and properties, and did not want to hand them back. At that time the survivors of the Holocaust were displaced people, with no resources and nowhere to go.

· We have said the only way the Palestine tragedy could have been avoided was if the Allies had carved out a homeland for the Jews in Germany. But at that time the US, UK, Soviet Union, and possibly to a lesser extent France were strongly anti-Semitic. This is the last thing the Allies wanted to do. America, which had welcomed Jews along with immigrants from 50 countries in the late 1800s and early 1900s, did not want mass Jewish immigration.

· We are told that the reason the US agreed to a Palestine homeland for the Jews was that President Harry Truman was appalled at the suffering of the Jews in the refugee camps where they were stuck because no one wanted them. Perhaps there is more to it than we have been told, but that no one wanted the Jews is quite clear.

· To our mind, while attempting to remediate the undeniable wrongs done to Jews, the West created its own wrong by taking away lands that Arabs had occupied for centuries. Palestine was a British colony at the time, and certainly the West could have cared less about what the Palestinians thought.

· In fairness to the British, they understood perfectly how Jewish immigration was hurting their relationships with Arab states, and they tried to stop the immigration. Jewish terrorists responded with a full-scale campaign of arson, bombing, and murder against the British, to the point the British got fed up and backed the Americans.

· India and Pakistan too have suffered by the last kicks of a dying empire when they were divided on the whims and fancies of a man who had never been to India, and couldn't leave fast enough. Consequently brother has fought brother for 65 years.

· But is there not irony in that the straw that broke the British camel's back was an armed extremist underground Jewish organization that stopped at nothing to spread terror? Israel was founded on blood, and the flow continues to this day. Then the Jews were the perpetrators, now they are victims, and in retaliation for their suffering, they have made the Palestinians suffer.

· Israelis and their supporters say that the Arabs could have taken the displaced Palestinians who at the time numbered just a very few hundred thousand. This is true, and it also true that that the Arabs have shamefully used the Palestine issue to create a state of war with Israel, which they then use an excuse to repress their own peoples.

· At the same time, to say the Arabs should have taken the Palestinians - and many Israelis say Palestinians have a homeland - in Jordan, isn't this a bit like Helen Thomas saying the Jews of Israel should go back from where they came?

0230 GMT June 8, 2010

· This is not a good idea...People, we are against the blockade of Gaza as we've made clear many times. But we think the worst idea anyone has had for resolving the issue comes today from Teheran. Iran is planning on sending three ships to break the blockade. This is going to get the Israeli public really mad, and right now the best hope for easing the blockade is to continue the low profile sailings from the west and to let Israeli public opinion work things through.

· Except for the right-wing fanatics who do NOT represent the majority of Israel, most Israelis understand the blockade is causing unnecessary harm and helping keep Hamas ever more firmly in control. The Turkish ship incident has caused every Israeli to look at the issue once more. Better to let them work this out without distraction, by doing as the Irish ship did. It politely refused to change course for Israel, it politely allowed itself to be boarded, and the Israelis politely took to it to Israel. everyone made their point.

· It is hugely non-productive to have Iran involved in any way because right now Iran is Enemy Number 1.

· http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/World/Middle-East/Iran-aid-ships-to-challenge-Israel/articleshow/6021407.cms

· After having "discovered" there is no need for a North Waziristan operation because the people who US wanted have "left", to further buttress itself against US pressure Pakistan now says many Taliban leaders have left Afghanistan-Pakistan entirely.

· The Pakistanis are proof of the many universes theory. In the Pakistani universe, the Taliban leaders are gone. Unfortunately, in the universe the rest of us inhabit, they haven't gone anywhere: they're still in Pakistan.

· Mr. Obama and the BP spill On the news Mr. Obama keeps saying "we've done this and we've done that", as in "we've capped the well but the flow will not stop till we dig the well" etc.

· Editor is confused: we thought BP was doing the work. Why does Mr. Obama keep wanting to take responsibility for what's being done to contain the disaster? Isn't the idea to distance himself because everything that goes wrong will be identified with him?

· Letter from Reader Agneya on many-armed Indian deities The sculptures and other artistic renderings of Hindu deities are often portrayed to have multiple arms as a symbolic way to represent their power. It is not meant to be taken literally - it is the symbolism of the artist.

0230 GMT June 7, 2010

· Editor is overcome with gratitude that the US has allowed access to Bombay 2008 planner David Hedley. America's generosity is astounding. Given India has a pantheon of deities numbering in the thousands or even in the ten thousands, surely it is not too much to deify the US? After all, only a bona fide deity can match the magnificent beneficence of America in letting India talk to Headly.

· Just to remind readers, Headly planned and organized the Bombay terror attack which caused hundreds of Indian casualties as well as several dozen foreign ones. The crime was perpetrated in India, and as such you'd think the man should be tried in India. But leave alone try, the US till now has not even given access to this terrorist. Whatever access India is given will be tightly controlled.

· The reason is the US, without consulting India, promised Headley that in return for his cooperation, he would not be extradited to India. Does anyone in America wonder that the Indians suspect a cover-up, given the US has actively acted to frustrate India from making this man pay for his crime?

· Our suggestion for the new American deity will be a rather large Uncle Sam with the face of a weasel, on which the plump, many-armed Ganesh can rest his feet. We suggest Ganesh because we are told some mildly confused American evangelist said the other day he didn't believe a deity with many arms could show him the way to heaven. The man, oddly enough, had it right. Ganesh does not show you the way to heaven. You pray to him to give you material wealth in this world.

· Oh, did we mention that the icon we suggest needs to be added to? The Uncle Sam weasel in his turn will rest himself on a surpassingly ugly and exceedingly energetic creature kissing Sam's butt. That will represent the Government of India at its finest.

· Debka.com on the Turkish blockade runner incident "Ten missile-ship captains in the Navy reserve force Sunday, June 6, demanded that the Israeli government and defense forces institute a separate panel to study the operational, intelligence and tactical failings of the May 31 Israel commando raid of the Turkish Mavi Marmara." www.debka.com A bit odd that naval officers belonging to other branches of the service have not joined in, but we say the sooner an inquiry, and the harsher it is, the better. Israel cannot long survive if its senior officers are as incompetent as those directing the response to the blockade runners.

· Debka reverts to its usual style when it claims that Turkey is massing land, air, and sea forces in Cyprus and that "Israel and Turkey are on the brink". On the brink of what, a cream-pie fight? Certainly they are not on the brink of war. Seeing as Greek Cypriots, who adamantly oppose Turkey, hold part of the island and that there are two UK military bases there, we think it unlikely that any movement of troops is taking place without the knowledge of the entire world. There's also the small matter of Turkey's integration into the joint NATO commands, and the even smaller matter of US intelligence, which has reported no movements by Turkey.

0230 GMT June 6, 2010

US says 34 of top 42 AQ in Iraq leaders eliminated in last 90-days

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/06/al_qaeda_in_iraq_is.php

· Irish blockade runner stopped without incident Israeli forces boarded the Irish ship ~16-nautical-miles from shore when the ship refused to change course for an Israeli port. Everyone was as polite as can be to each other. Israel says it will send the cargo to Gaza after confiscating the banned items, which is just about everything the ship carries - cement, paper, and wheelchairs.

· An article in UK Guardian says the blockade is a blessing for Hamas and the black market. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jun/06/gaza-blockade-black-economy-hamas

· Our statement the other day that 50% of Gaza is fed by the UN is apparently not correct. The UN is supporting 70% of the population.

· ROK people want low-key response to warship sinking This seems very strange to us, but apparently what the people of ROK are worried about is not that the DPRK has sunk an ROK warship, but that the government's strong stand against DPRK may lead to war. The Government's tough talk has resulted in serious rebuffs in local elections, and many people are talking about a government conspiracy. Apparently the people want the Government to turn off the rhetoric, lower the temperature, and not disturb their making money. which of course would be seriously disturbed if there was war.

· Okay, its not for us to say how the people of ROK should take the sinking. But we certainly didn't expect this massive wimping out. The problem of DPRK is not going to go away. Hanging around waiting for the regime to break is not productive, because its unlikely the regime will go quietly into obscurity. This situation reminds us of India's response to China: instead of showing some determination, ROK, like India, is going around talking in whispers so as not the offend the enemy.

· In some, forget about a ROK response to the sinking. Even the little the government has done has ratcheted up the people's anxiety levels to new highs.

· Meanwhile, the US Defense Secretary says diplomatic pressure against DPRK is unlikely to show results as the regime doesn't care what the world or its own people think. Who'd have thunk it? These Washington people are just so clever it beggars belief. Oh yes, the US SecDef also says that no one wants war.

· What we say is that if this is US attitude, please lets save the taxpayers' money and withdraw our forces from the Korean peninsula and from Japan. Its a waste of time and money to maintain them there.

· BP containment cap collects 6000-bbl oil in the first 24 hours This is one-third to one-half of the leak. BP will gradually close vents in the cap to progressively collect more oil. Its being cautious because it doesn't want the well pressure to blow off the cap.

· BP says the cap will not stop the leak, that will happen only when the relief well is dug. But if the cap holds, at least the flow of oil will be substantially reduced.

· Read about how an Afghan warlord makes $2.5-million a month keeping the 160-km highway between Kandahar and Tarin Kot open one day a week. Oh yes, he is fully supported by the US Government; US special forces work alongside him. On the side he is a drug trafficker and works with the Taliban.

· This represents a complete failure of the US policy to sideline warlords in the interests of building up the Afghan government. The Afghan government has not been built up nine years later and NATO needs the supplies to get through, even though its $1200 a truck and the warlord keeps the road open only one day a week.

· There was very bad blood between the US narcotics control agencies and the Special Forces in Indochina, then there was more bad blood during the resistance to the Russian occupation, and there is going to be yet more bad blood.

· http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/06/world/asia/06warlords.html?ref=world

0230 GMT June 5, 2010

· Indian Army prepares to send CI troops to "Maoistan" says Sandeep Unniathan of India Today in an email. Northern Command has been alerted to prepare two sector HQs (equivalent to brigade HQs) and 8 Rashtriya Rifles battalions to insurgency-hit areas in Central India.

· Of course, it will take much more than that: the Maoists may outnumber deployed security forces - 20 police and paramilitary battalions - by 4 to 1. To put it politely, that is not a good ratio for CI, where you need to outnumber the insurgents 10-1, not the insurgents outnumber you 4-1.

· Also of course, everyone recognizes this is not a problem that will be solved by force. India proposes to inflict enough pain on the Maoists that they decide jaw-jaw is better than war-war, to quote Churchill. Though the RR are CI troops, they are deputed directly from the Army and are regular army. They also have years of CI experience in Kashmir. So their arrival will represent a qualitative change on the ground. Hopefully the Maoists will agree to talks sooner than later, but they have been at war against the state for over 40 years now, in greater or lesser degree. They were defeated in West Bengal, where they originated, by the Army. Nonetheless, persuading them to give violence is not going to be easy.

· Sandeep also told us that the Indian army has requested two mountain strike corps for use against China and/or Pakistan in addition to several new divisions that have been approved. He says the Prime Minister is unlikely to approve the mountain strike corps for fear of upsetting China.

· At this point you would normally expect Editor to fly into a rant about cowardly Indian politicians, but we aren't going to do it because the Indian Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, is an upright, honest, and humble technocrat. He deserves our respect. Rather, we will confine our rant to cowardly national security advisors and the Foreign Ministry. Time for them to understand that if India worries about China getting provoked, India is tacitly conceding its subservience to China.

· Is this something any Indian should quietly accept, particularly when China, instead of keeping a low profile as did India after the accords of 15+ years ago, has been steadily up the ante? No. if India wants respect from China, it has to earn it by standing up for itself.

· Nonetheless, Sandeep suspects the strike divisions will be raised, but individually put under different corps so as not to seem provocative.

· Irish ship starts Gaza approach Both the activists and the Israeli Government are trying to lower the temperature. Israelis say if the ship sails for an Israeli port, it will not be stopped and it will be permitted to unload. But the ship's organizers say the purpose is to break the blockade as a way of getting Israel to end it. Since the ship carries cement and paper - banned goods - for the organizers unloading in an Israeli port solves nothing because the goods will not be delivered.

· Nonetheless, there are just 11 activists, of whom 4 are over 60. They have announced in advance they will not resist Israeli boarding.

· Israel has refused an offer to examine the cargo while the ship is at sea. The Israeli foreign minister says under no conditions will Israeli let ships unload in Gaza. Israel has been making nice, saying it is willing to explore new ways of letting civilian goods reach Gaza, but this is simple spin, because Israel has already been letting what it deems civilian goods reach Gaza. The problem is its definition of military goods.

· We think this is not a battle Israel can win; but again, we state the US should stay out of this situation at all costs. Let the Israelis do what they believe is best for them, and let them take the consequences, good or bad.

· Instead, the US has jumped in with four feet to try and get the Israelis to alter the blockade. Here is a quote from an American official given in the New York Times: "Gaza has become the symbol in the Arab world of the Israeli treatment of Palestinians, and we have to change that,” the senior American official said. “We need to remove the impulse for the flotillas. The Israelis also realize this is not sustainable.”

· Kindly cool it, dudette or dude. "We" have to change that? "We" need to remove the impulse for flotillas? No, no, and no. We need to do nothing except stay out of it. By interfering like this, the US is diverting attention from Israel, and assuming ownership of a bad situation which has nothing to do with the US. When things go wrong - and this being the Mideast, it's just a question of time - the US will be left hugging the latrines and both sides will blame the US. US should have learned by now it is not the font of every wisdom. That's the province of the Big Guy or Gal in the Sky. And remember what happens when mortals start thinking they are as smart at the Big Guy/Gal. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/03/world/middleeast/03policy.html?src=me&ref=world

0230 GMT June 4, 2010

· The Gaza Blockade We wouldn't have bothered writing on this topic, except from the discussions in blogs and responses to media articles, we sense many decent people are confused on the Israeli blockade of Gaza.

· First, no one is dying of hunger in Gaza. Import of basic medicines is permitted. Israel permits import of fuel sufficient to run power generators that feed hospitals and water purification plants for a certain number of hours a day. The Gaza blockade is not like the blockade of Germany in World War I or that of Japan in World War II.

· Second, what the Israelis have done is deliberately strangle economic activity in Gaza, and done so in the expectation the population will rise against Hamas. For the moment let's ignore the complete illogic of the expectation and look at what Israeli action means.

· Sixty percent of people have no jobs. Half the population survives on food handouts by the UN. No factories manufacture anything in Gaza because they are allowed neither the power nor the materials. No cement or steel are allowed, under the pretext that Hamas will use the materials to construct fortifications. In reality this means that no one can fix their houses or build anything except using materials salvaged from the thousands of structures Israel has destroyed. The daily wage for salvage is said to be $5/day.

· The blockade is so strict that even office paper is not allowed. Pace makers are not allowed. Many medicines are not allowed. Butter in bulk is not allowed because that would permit a factory to provide jobs making butter in retail quantities. The list goes on and on.

· Third, the people of Gaza are confined to their ghetto. They cannot leave, those outside cannot enter. Israel permits individual movement only the rarest of cases.

· Fourth, there is no government except what Hamas provides because a government cannot function without taxes, buildings, vehicles, telephones, computers and the like.

· In short, there is no people in the world that live in conditions imposed by an outside power as abysmal as that of the Palestinians. Yes, there are states like North Korea that oppress their citizens even worse than Israel is doing to Gaza. But there is a difference between an outside power doing this and your own government doing it.

· The blockade We have had a chance to look at the 1994 San Remo agreement which seems to be the most recent effort to update the law of blockade. Unsurprisingly, the agreement is ambiguous in many parts. For example, seizure of enemy vessels beyond a 24-nautical mile zone is permitted depending on the circumstances, and those circumstances are not detailed.

· There is a clear provision that says enemy ships and even those of neutral states brining military goods can be stopped but humanitarian goods cannot. Well, Israel has defined cement and steel as military goods, as well as any machine tool, no matter how crude, because it might make a part for a rocket. And so on.

· The very big problem with the blockade is that Israel has not declared Palestine as an enemy state or declared war against Palestine. Indeed, Israel happily deals with what it says is the legitimate government of Palestine, headed by President Abbas in the West Bank.

· Israel has declared Hamas as an enemy, but Hamas is not a state. It is a political movement with an armed wing. To force the Palestinian people to rise up against Hamas - as if they could in the first place - Israel has imposed collective punishment on the people of Gaza. This is illegal under Fourth Geneva.

· San Remo was designed for state actors in conflict with other state actors. Not only is this not the case with Hamas and Israel, by all definition of international law Israel is in occupation of Gaza and is thus responsible for the well-being of the people. The Israeli argument they have withdrawn from Gaza and are not in occupation is invalid under the law because Israel controls all movement of goods and people into/out of Gaza.

· Well, of course at this point the Israelis will say: "But we are looking after the well-being of Gaza. You yourself have said no one is starving." Correct. Israel is looking after the people of Gaza in the same way as the state looks after people in its prisons.

· This is no different from the Germans saying of the ghettos into which the forced the Jewish people that no one is dying of hunger. That argument did not wash then, it doesn't wash now. And that the world shrugged its shoulders and ignored the Jewish people and their ghastly fate in no way in the slightest justifies Israel's ghettoization of Gaza,

· Wherever we read about the law of war, there is always the mention of proportionality. No Israeli says that an Israeli settler is killed by a rocket, Israel has the right to kill everyone in Gaza. But when you look at the number of casualties caused by Hamas versus the number of casualties caused by Israel, you see a complete and total disproportionality.

· So, you will say, didn't you say the other day might is right? Indeed we did. And the United States is the primary exponent of that theory, and Editor clearly supports the US when it acts according to that theory. So what is Editor's problem with Israel?

· Well, as we said the other day, our problem is that Israel is using the US as cover. And the way the Palestine situation is playing out is NOT to the advantage of the US. Contrary to the fond belief of many Israelis and some American Jews, the interests of the US and Israel are not identical. To say that Israel is the only democracy in the Mideast and so the US must support it does not mean that the US has to support Israel in everything. India is the world's biggest democracy and the US most definitely does not concern itself with that when it backs Pakistan, a terrorist state waging war on India.

· The US needs to understand that the recent incident is just the first Two more ships are on the way. One from Ireland has been inspected by Irish customs and has been cleared as carrying no arms. It does carry cement and wheelchairs among other items. It's no use the Israelis piously saying "land the goods under our supervision and we'll see they get to the people of Gaza" because Israel will not let anything in on its banned list. Will there be an incident with the Irish ship? That's up to the Israelis. But the world and Europe and Turkey in particular are so infuriated that blockade running attempts will not stop. The Israelis can say all they want they will stop every ship. Each time they do they will blacken their own reputation.

· Did we mention the Irish ship is fully equipped with cameras and transmitters so that every thing that happens will be broadcast?

· Neccessary caveat The Israelis are not a monolithic people. They have a very wide range of opinions on the issue of Palestine. freely expressed. There are Israelis who support the blockade. There are those who do not. We request readers to keep that in mind when we speak of the Israelis. We refer to the government which is held hostage by a tiny minority of religious extremists. The electoral politics of Israel are such this minority has immensely disproportionate effect on government policies. It's easy to bash Prime Minister Netanyahu, and there is a lot to bash. But he cannot rule without the religious extremists. So let him resign, you say. Well, we'll let someone else tell you about the details of politics. As far as we understand, the extremists are going to call the shots even if the PM resigns.

· Letter from Reader Jupiter (a nom de plume) There was wide spread anger on many liberals blogs at the Israelis breaking 'international law'.

· But here is the problem: there is no international law. Actually the only law that exists is 'might is right'.

· Why is there not an international law?

· Well, it is based on what Western nations came up with. "Universal Human Rights" is not ratified (completely) by more than a few dozen nations. These are the nations that do not allow practice of any other religion in their country. That means we have not agreed on what constitutes human rights and how a citizen of a country should be treated by a(any) state.

· Thus holding Israel's feet to fire while ignoring human rights violations across these countries, the violations are just as (or more) barbaric, is hypocritical.

· Then, one wonders why these countries become 95-99% (many 100%) people belonging to one religion while the minorities are given a slave treatment. And the number of these minorities still runs into tens of millions. But we are not supposed to raise our voice concerning the plight of these people.

· This is called organized violence and it is winning. The West is good at organized violence too, but that happens when they fight for resources, not in the name of religion.

· Editor's note We agree with reader Jupiter. A particularly egregious case of hypocrisy is the suppression of Christians in the Middle East. Adding to the Arab hypocrisy is that the US and the west have nothing to say about the suppression because they want Arab oil.

· An even great case of hypocrisy is that the Arabs could have ended the Palestine problem by allowing Palestinians to emigrate to their countries. They have steadfastly refused because it suits their politics to leave the Palestinian people hostages of Israel.

· The Egyptian Government has been worst of all because it has joined forces with Israel to blockade the Palestinians. Their excuse? We don't want Palestine radicals entering Egypt, or Egyptian radicals hiding in Palestine. Is this any different from what the Israelis are doing? We don't think so. The Egyptian government, incidentally, does not represent the people of Egypt. So we are in no way criticizing the Egyptian people.

0230 GMT June 3, 2010

· Germany likely to end draft It has already reduced the period to 6-months, and drafts only 40,000 a year, with an equal number taking alternate service. Plans are being made to cut the German armed forces to 150,000 from 250,000 so that they can be manned by volunteers. In case readers wonder, Germany has a population of 80-million, the biggest in Europe bar Russia.

· When we first heard about this, we were seriously annoyed. With the exception of Britain, no European nations thinks it has any responsibility to maintain armed forces of any size or competence, so the US is going to be even more alone in the world.

· After we cooled off, occurred to us that you may as well cut Germany's armed forces because it cannot sustain even two brigades overseas. So what is the point of a quarter-million troops?

· Further occurred to us that maybe if the Euros disarm - as they are doing - maybe, just maybe, the US will start thinking why it and it alone is responsible for global security. Maybe that will make the US less prone to expeditionary interventions at the drop of a hat. And maybe a bit of isolationism is what we need while we focus on paying down our debts and tackling problems at home.

· In the Department of Irony, reader Tom Cooper writes to point out the absurdity of the Israelis capturing people on the high seas, taking them to Israel, then charging them with illegal entry into Israel.

· Polish air crash in Russia media says according to data now available, the crew of the Polish plane that crashed in Russia ignored a dozen warnings from the automated terrain avoidance systems to pull up. It also appears that the pilots could not see a thing even as they came down to 650-feet and then to 325-feet. The air traffic controllers warned the crew that there were "no conditions for landing". The controllers then wanted the pilots to pull up at 325-feet. The New York Times says that the pilots may have ignored the alerts because many Russian airports are not in the computer data base, including Smolensk, where the plane was attempting to land., and the system can give nuisance alerts. As the plane dropped even lower the pilots had no idea they were going smack into a forest and were not over the runway.

· Afghan police nowhere near ready says the New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/02/world/asia/02marja.html?ref=asia This article will make your hair curl. Three months after the Marines took Marja, the police - who one presumes were the best the Government could find - are absolutely not up to the job. One US police trainer says the Afghans are not hopeless. They're on the first or second rung of the ladder. This is being said of the best police from an elite Ministry of Interior force.

· Gee Golly Galoshes. Nine years into the war, the US and its allies have done such a great training job that the police are on the first or second rung of the ladder? Is there any accountability or are we simply going to withdraw after spending a few hundred billion and then repeat the mistakes somewhere else?

· We've said before that US training of local forces in Iraq and Afghanistan has been beyond pathetic. No one should doubt the skill of the US military when it comes to fighting on its own. American soldiers are very highly trained, beautifully equipped, and lack nothing by way of support.

· We have not studied why US - and other NATO trainers - end up with so little for all the astonishingly huge effort they put into the job. We suspect it is because the US/NATO want to make local forces in their own image, and ignore the realities. We suspect US/NATO in effect creates a culture of dependency, destroys confidence, and ruins initiative.

· In Iraq at least the US had some excellent material to work with because till 2003 Iraq had what was by Mideast standards a large, competent army. In Afghanistan the Afghan Army disintegrated when the Russians and Americans withdrew and you got a bunch of warlord armies, the Taliban being just the most successful of the warlords. But nine years is nine years. US/NATO have no excuse for the shoddy results of their training.

· Among the things the Afghan police in Marja do: rampant drug use, corruption, refusal to stand guard, refusal to clean their living areas, desertions, abandoning their posts in the afternoon for long siestas, lack of training, lack of understanding of rules of engagement.

· Oh yes: the Afghans cannot even look after themselves. American units " create the space" in which the police function, and the Americans provide logistical, medical, and military force.

· Sure you can blame the material. But if you cannot do the job in nine years, there's something wrong with you, not the material - which by the way is all-volunteer, and gets paid darn well by Afghan standards.

· Also by the way: neither the Afghan police nor the Army like to serve in areas away from their homes.

0230 GMT June 2, 2010

Was Abu Yazid really AQ's Number 3 asks Bill Roggio

http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2010/06/is_mustafa_abu_yazid_al_qaedas.php

· India losing battle against Maoists The Indian casualty rate, security personal and civilians, has been running 4:1 whereas in Kashmir it has in recent years been 1:1. Calls are being made to deploy the Army.

· This will be an excessively stupid move. The Army is intended to defend the borders. It has been used in the Northeast since 1960 and in Kashmir since the late 1980s. Because the army wants no part of IS, the Government created the Rashtriya Rifles. The RR is manned by army officers and other ranks on deputation. It is differently organized, with lighter weapons, and specifically trained for CI. By all means use the RR.

· The reason for the adverse exchange rate is simply that the Government of India has only recently begun to take the Maoists seriously. Previously they were considered misguided and treated not just with gloves on, but with mittens over the gloves. The CI effort was fitful, badly planned, even more badly executed by police and paramilitary units with minimal firepower and who are often outgunned by the Maoists. You cannot do a third-rate job, fail, and then say the Army has to be used.

· Don't get the army involved in yet another war against the people, however ruthless, bloody-minded and cruel those people are. If the government sends in the Army, it is no different from Pakistan. Is that the standard to which Indian government wants its army to be compared?

· Israeli action against blockade runners Vikhr Akula forwards an interesting article: http://www.informationdissemination.net/ scroll down a bit to find the article.

· Israel has ordered a 23-mile exclusion zone because, it says, it is at war with Hamas. The Turkish ship boarded was 80-miles off shore and in international waters. Israel says it knew the boats would not stop and wanted to intercept them as far out as possible.

· Okay, so how far is acceptable? Would stopping them as they leave port be acceptable? Further, it appears that Israel has apparently engaged in sabotage against at least two boats of the flotilla before they left port. The Israelis are not disputing the sabotage, rather, they are dropping broad hints that they did sabotage (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jun/01/israel-gaza-flotilla-sabotage-suspected) If this is true, is this legal?

· This matter is not as simple as Israel makes out. For example, is Israel at war with Palestine? Israel says no, it is at war with Hamas. But Hamas is not a state. It is a political party with an armed wing. Someone can argue: there is no state of Palestine. But if there is no state of Palestine, Israel is responsible for the territory as it is the occupying power. Since the blockade is aimed as much as crippling Gaza economically, so that the people of Gaza rise up against Hamas - and this is an openly stated Israeli policy, Israeli is violating the laws of war. For one thing collective punishment is illegal (Article 55, Fourth Geneva). Now, Israel says it is not occupying Palestine, or at least Gaza. But since the Israelis control all access to Gaza, this is not an argument that will fly in court.

· Now we all know Israel is operating under a law that trumps the law of war. That is the law "Might is right." And that's fine, Editor understands that law if only because the US uses it all the time. But then Israel should not claim legal or moral cover. US squashes its enemies like bugs when it find them overseas. US claims its actions are legal because they are self-defense. Has this position been tested in a world court?

· By the way, we are all for the US squashing its enemies like bugs. More Power to the Predator is what we say. If asked if we think the US actions are legal, we have to reply: "No. But whatcha goin' ta do abhit it?"

· Fundamentally what we object to is Israel doing what it wants and then hiding behind the US. The Israeli papers even say Israel expects the US to deflect criticism over the Turkish ship. But - excuze us pleeze: did Israel get US permission to do what it did? No it didn't. If Israel goes on doing what it likes and expects the US to defend it, and the US obliges, then we have to conclude what the rest of the world believes: that the Israeli tails wags the American dog. Is this in the American interest? We think not.

· Department of irony Donkey's years ago, before the official creation of Israel, the British imposed a prohibition on ships bringing Jewish refuges and settlers to Palestine. British troops attempting to stop passengers on a ship from disembarking in defiance of the embargo opened fire and killed three. http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/History/brits.html The incident did much to increase sympathy for the Jews.

· Fergie This blog may seem a strange place to mention the Duchess of York. The reason we do mention her is that in a world full of spin, this young lady looked Oprah straight in the eye and told her she was drunk when she had the meeting with the press person from whom she asked half-a-million-pounds to arrange a meeting with her ex. She did not spin being drunk: she said she was in the gutter, which is about as brutally honest as you can get. No excuses, no appeals for sympathy, no blaming the press, no claims she was misunderstood, just the facts, Ma'am. Earlier she apologized to Prince Andrew and to their daughters, and offered to leave the residence they share together.

· When she and Andrew got together, the Brits thought she lacked class and condescended to her. She has just shown she has more class than a whole lot of people, including a whole lot of Americans.

0230 GMT June 1, 2010

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/05/senior_taliban_comma_1.php Read for latest Afghanistan news including an ISAF district map showing who supports whom

· Honestly, we have nothing useful to say on the Israeli and Turkish ship affair There is no doubt the Israeli commandos were attacked - video from the Turkish ship shows that. But were the Israelis ambushed as they claim, or did they fire first? Doubt we'll known anytime soon.

· More to the point, the ship was in international waters, 110-km from Israeli shores. Israel says it has declared a maritime exclusion zone. Does have authority to do so? We don't know.

· Given that the Israelis are known for the extreme disproportionate response to any threat, it's quite courageous of the Turks to fight at all, and they paid the price: up to 19 people might have been killed, the Israelis say 9-10.

· As for these so-called elite naval commandos, we suggest their commanders are busted to the ranks and everyone sent back to be retrained from Day 1. We have never heard of anything as stupid as a bunch of "elite" commandoes getting themselves into such a mess against civilians. There are legitimate questions about the standard of training of the Israeli forces, many asked by the Israelis themselves. There has been a lot of retraining/changes etc after the 2008 Gaza operation. Looks like more is needed.

· What happened, this incident is a PR disaster for Israel. In fairness to the Israelis, from what we read, they understand that fully.

· We still don't understand why Americans do their war reporting so poorly and the British do theirs so well. Case in point: read http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/insurgents-in-kandahars-undergrowth-drag-nato-forces-into-green-hell-1987511.html It tells what American troops are going through in Kandahar.

· Letter from reader Herman Hans I am an ex Army type from India. I mean the whole bit...military school, NDA, IMA, and then 5 years (1964-70) of roughing out in NEFA etc. Been here in Canada now for the past 40 years. Now retired, after cutting down some of the best forest stands on the west coast of BC. Becoming a forester was the closest thing to the Army life. First (wife) left after 23 years, the second one (is) from India, (and) has her own ideas. Only one with my family label is 24 years old... like you I am also in mid sixties. If you decide to lead a revolution in motherland let me know....

· Editor's response We're touched at reader's Hans' letter. To us it seems he has more than done his duty to the Motherland. We think he should relax, and chase those Canadian ladies. Surely there cannot be two people in the world as useless at this pleasant endeavor!

0230 GMT May 31, 2010

· We'd planned today to respond to a news story that allegedly has India's Integrated Defense Staff (we think that's what the Indian equivalent of the US JCS is called) originating a scenario where 23 Chinese divisions, many mechanized, descending on one lone division in India's northeast - in a zero warning attack, no less, and overrun the northeast before India can even reinforce the border.

· But Editor ended up spending 35 hours on a six page research paper for college, on top of a normal work week, gym, and orbat, and he is completely cross-eyed. So please be patient, we will get to it.

· Meanwhile, readers can be reassured that the chance of such a scenario becoming real is rather less than the chance of the Editor getting a date. Which as we all know is less than zero.

· Editor did for a minute think he had a date when yesterday a lady named Marcia emailed him. She said she was branch head of the Arab Bank of Switzerland, and was holding $85-million in the account of an Iraqi general who had died along with his family in the Iraq War. If I provided Marcia with my particulars, she would tell me how we could split the money 40% for the Editor and 60% to her.

· This looked like a genuine deal, so Editor sent Marcia his particulars: 5-foot six, 193-lbs, -13 specs, six hairs on his head, perfect 40-40-40, and able to do the 100-meters in less than an hour - if a Cat 5 hurricane is at his back.

· Sadly, Marcia has not responded. Women are so fickle.

· So we've been sitting here, shaking our heads watching President Obama self-destruct. They tell us the man is brilliant, almost a genius. But he seems not to be too terribly clever. Where was the need for him to take ownership of the BP spill, tying his prestige to BP's success in capping the well? The well is not capped, though BP has been spending $200-million a week on cleanup and containment, and doing everything it can so that the inevitable billion dollar damages - ten billion dollar damages - can be reduced. The US Government can do nothing to cap the well, because - big surprise, no? - the US Government is not in the oil drilling business. It has neither a clue nor the equipment. People say President Obama should take over. Take over and do what? Watch his already dwindling ratings go down faster? send in the Marines? Pray? And does the Prez not have other things to do, like running the US and half the world?

· Well, since the Prez doesn't think he has other work to do, who are we to stand in his way.

· We learn from the Washington Post why Prez Bill Clinton did not inhale. Turns out he and his buddy the liberal British journalist Christopher Hitchens used to partake of marijuana brownies. What a great paper, the WashPo! Now that the Editor knows the answer to the "did not inhale" conundrum, he feels he has accomplished everything he needed to in this life. If the ranting Bad Tempered Big Guy with the unwashed beard and skinny butt that we'd love to a plant a boot on decides to take the Editor at any moment henceforth, Editor will go without complaints.

· Jamaican drug lord's private cross-dressing army The drug lord that the government went after has not been captured, but is believed to be still on the island. Seventy-three people were killed, including - it was believed - many women. People were feeling bad about that. Turns out that only two of the women were women. The rest were men wearing women's clothes. The drug lord imported 400 gunmen to defend him, paying them $1500/day. we guess many of the gunmen wont be spending their money as they are no longer - er - with us.

· We kid you not: we got this from the Times London May 31, 2010, http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/

· New York is under assault by bedbugs http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/ Don't read this article if you get easily grossed-out.

· Wunner what the Prez is doing about the bed bugs. Looks like a Condition Red situation. It costs $15,000 to get the little fellows eliminated from your apartment. Rich and poor are suffering alike. The Gulf Coast people are getting aid. What about New Yorkers?

· Apparently the bedbugs can be gotten rid of only by raising the apartment temperature to 120F. Spray them with the worst chemicals you can think off, and they just do a little dance and scamper off to hide. and here people have been worrying about the Iranian bomb and war in Korea.

0230 GMT May 30, 2010

· Throw these bums out So the President of India had to fly to China, and a minor head of state had to fly to Agra to see the Taj, both out of Delhi. No fewer than twenty civilian flights had to hold for over an hour or had to be diverted. The US President flies in and out of the Washington area all the time, the UK prime minister flies in and out of London all the time. Does civilian air traffic get shut down? No it doesn't. And by the way, the President of India does not run India the way the US President does, because she is a constitutional head of state.

· This might have been been just another massive-inconvenience-to-the-public that Indians have to endure. Except that three flights diverted to Jaipur were down to their last fuel before they managed to put down. No one, of course, had bothered to tell the flights Delhi airspace was closed. One flight had 180 seconds of reserve fuel left before landing; one had 10 minutes of reserve fuel, and one had 13 minutes of reserve fuel.

· Oh, did we mention that a sandstorm was building up at Jaipur and the approach radar wasn't working? Just the perfect conditions to land when your reserve fuel is conking out.

· Indians have to realize something. No one is going to save them from their leaders. The Old Boy in the Sky does not concern himself with India: we know that from the centuries of suffering Indians have had to ensure. No other country cares because they have their own problems. It is only when Indians stand up and say: "Enough" that things will change. Are we going to have to wait till a diverted plane actually runs out of fuel and crashes before something is done? Do you as as an Indian want to be on that plane, or a loved one on that plane? If you don't, speak out.

· Meanwhile, the Air India plane that crashed at Mangalore had a captain with 10,000 hours and the aircraft was less than three years old. The airport is cut out of a mountaintop, and is difficult to land at. This is the first serious air accident in 14 years.

· Also meanwhile, the Indian media are talking about three sisters who married Indian civil pilots, and all three lost their husbands in air crashes. This is in the 1970s and 1980s as nearly as we can make out. Their story never came to light then because India was not mediaized the way it is now.

· Editor personally knew a family where the wife had lost a brother and a brother-in-law in civilian air crashes.

· Another reason to throw the bums out The US Navy has set free 10 Somalia pirates who were captured hijacking an Indian ship because US cannot find anyone to try them.

· Contrary to what governments want us to believe, the law of the sea gives any country the right to try pirates, if caught, from any country. All this business about the laws not been there so we had to release the pirates is pure bull poop.

· But since it was an Indian merchantman, it's unreasonable to expect the US to try these men.

· Which leaves the question: why has the Indian Government not asked for custody?

· And yet another reason to thrown the bums out The US media reports that the US Government is preparing to launch unilateral strikes against Pakistan should terrorists traced to Pakistan cause harm to America.

· We applaud America's resolution, while pointing out the obvious: if US hits Pakistan with punishment strikes, it can forget about Pakistan's cooperation in the GWOT, pathetic as it may be. It's one thing to attack targeted terrorist individuals, particularly as the Pakistanis occasionally set up someone who has spun out of their control and they need him whacked. It's another thing to do a cruise/air-strike/ground attack against an ally. US Special Forces are said to be clamoring for open clandestine ground ops anyway. That's opposed to the secret clandestine ops that take place.

· But our intention is not to expend any concern on US's problems with Pakistan. US has brought them on itself.

· Rather, we are wondering on what basis the Indian Government listens to the Americans when the latter pressure India from retaliating against Pakistan. It's okay for the US to retaliate but not for India?

· Adding insult to injury, US has just issued another of its grossly self-serving statements about the need for India and Pakistan to get along so they can focus and cooperate on counter-terrorism.

· Hello, Washington. Earth calling. Any of your Giant Intelligences notice that India is under attack by Pakistani terrorists? And you expect India to cooperate with Pakistan because it suits you?

· Well, of course Washington does. Because - the horror, the horror America puts its interests first and those of others second. Any of the Giant Intelligences in Delhi understand the enormous subtlety and sophistication of putting your national interests ahead of the American national interest?

· Guess not. India's elite would rather beg America for doggy treats and the occasional pat.

· Then the Indians wonder why US respects China and is constantly tippy tippy toeing around China even as it slams India.

· Here's a truly radical though for the Indian elite. If you stood up to America, America would not think less of you. It would think more of you. But Editor guesses you'd rather be a good dog.

· Days like these, Editor thinks he should pack it in and return to India to help lead the revolution. Then he remembers: he gave up revolutionary ways when his children were born because he was scared for their safety. Indian ethics is quite clear when a man becomes a householder, his first responsibility is to his family, so Editor did not beat himself up too much. But now his youngest is about to be 24. He's not married, but he is settled in a good job. So what's Editor's excuse for not returning? That he's in his mid-60s and revolution is a young man's game? Not much of an excuse. After all, the people of India don't need Editor to help string up the bums from lamposts. There's enough people to do that. They need leadership, and they need it from people themselves of the elite.

0230 GMT May 29, 2010

We did not updated May 28, 2010

· Sectarian attacks by Pakistan Taliban against the minority Muslim Ahemdiya community left 70 dead.

· Maoists cause India train derailment killing 70. There is a step-up in Maoist attacks, perhaps because the Government of India has finally begun to seriously push back against growing Maoist influence in India. The other day the Maoists blew up a bus carrying several police - but it was also carrying as many civilians who were also killed. The train attack is against civilians.

· Government has invited to Maoists for talks if they give up violence. The Maoists refuse talks with preconditions; its not clear if they are serious about any talks as they believe they have the upper hand.

· This cannot end well. In Kashmir India showed the capacity to deploy 600,000 troops, police, and paramilitary against insurgents. Building on that expertise there is no reason India cannot deploy 1- or even 2-million paramilitary forces and police against the Maoists within five years. The Maoists cannot win, but because they have been battling a soft federal government - and winning - quite likely they don't understand once the Government turns its mind to eliminating Maoists, it's just a matter of time. Given the way India does counterinsurgencies, the fight may take decades. But India has the demonstrated patience: its oldest insurgency in Nagaland which still sputters on, has been going on for half-a-century.

· In any CI, the people in the middle get the worst from both ends. Much as some would have government's fight insurgencies like a low-level police operation, it cannot be done. In a sense its good that the Government of India says this is a law-and-order problem, because that implicitly precludes use of the Army. But when the miscreants or whatever the latest favored term outgun the police, can deploy hundreds of armed insurgents for a single attack, and forcibly dominate villages who don't want to be part of the insurgency, its no longer a law-and-order problem, any more than Pakistan's war against its Taliban is a law-and-order issue.

· So its a given large numbers of innocent people are going to get killed. But its always that way with wars.

· The news from Afghanistan is depressing as anyone giving the situation any thought could foretell. Once US made clear it was not going to commit the resources needed to win, and was looking for a way out, things were going to get worse. Marja is very far from pacified, and that's one small town with surrounding villages. The government is not functioning, the Taliban put away their guns during the day but rule by night.

· The Kandahar operation has failed before it has gotten seriously underway. The reason is the same as with Marja: the Taliban kill anyone working for or with the government. This small matter seems to escape Human Rights groups who are ever ready to condemn governments, "balanced" with a token condemnation of insurgents thrown in. Because anyone cooperating with the government is a target, people stop working for or with the government. They sit on the fence and futilely try to get both sides to leave them alone. The side that squeezes the hardest wins.

· If you doubt that, ask the Brits who have done more small-scale CI than anyone else in the last 100 years. Yes, their tactics failed in Iraq, because they went in small scale due to a lack of resources, but the enemy wasn't a few hundred or a few thousand insurgents. It was tens of thousands of insurgents. Their failure in Iraq means nothing. Look at the war against the IRA. There was no hearts and minds. There was a simple, single-minded focus on capturing or killing IRA members. The British outnumbered the armed IRA more than 10 to 1. And they spent 30 years to do the job. In the end, the IRA was dying or rotting in jail faster than it could replace its cadres.

· Look at Sri Lanka. The government had to keep killing rebels till a few hundred were left with no place to run. It was a brutal 20-year war. The Sri Lankans showed you can win an insurgency. But not by handing out blue blankies and pink bunny slippers.

· But in Afghanistan, having thrown away their victory, the Americans cannot make it come out right with the forces at hand. Since they are not willing to commit more, its endgame.

· The Goldene Cuckolde Awarde A reader asks: "Since Pakistan has cuckolded the US, the Americans are the cuckolds. Shouldn't you name the Awarde something else?" We were using "cuckolde" as a verb. So if someone tells us the correct term for the cuckolding party, we'll change the Awarde's name.

0230 GMT May 27, 2010

Orbat announces the new Goldene Cuckolde Awarde

And the first winner is...

· Government of Pakistan! We could not find admiring words enough for the latest scam pulled by the Government of Pakistan. No, we are not being sardonic. We are genuinely amazed at the fast one Pakistan has pulled on the US.

· You will remember we've been saying, and Mandeep Bajwa has seconded, that Pakistan will not mount any operation in North Waziristan no matter how much pressure the US puts. Oh yes, we anticipated Sound and Fury operations involving the use of firepower to make holes in the mountains. With ordnance supplied by the US at the American taxpayer's cost, of course.

· But the Pakistanis were far ahead of us in their thinking.

· They have told the US there is no need to attack North Waziristan because the Pakistan Taliban have departed. And where have they gone to? South Waziristan! But didn't the Pakistani Taliban come to North Waziristan from South Waziristan in the first place? Yes, indeed! But didn't Pakistan tell us they had defeated the Pakistan Taliban? Yes, they did!

· In case you think we're making this up, please read Bill Roggio at http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/05/hakeemullahs_pullout.php He first got his news from Pakistani media, then spoke to his American sources, who confirmed the story.

· All this confirms what Mandeep has been saying for a long time: despite the attacks the Pakistan Taliban have conducted against Pakistan, ISI still handles the Mesuds as government assets - which they remain.

· What the Pakistanis have done is so clever there is nothing left for Pentagon, State, and the President except to bang their heads against a granite wall. Great job, fellows, great job!

· Meanwhile, read this story sent us by Reader Bhali We'll comment on it later; these days with school winding up, last throes of Editor's MBA studies, and job search, Editor has been short on time.

· Reader Flymike corrects us: according to Rasmussen poll, 63% of Americans want the health care bill repealed, not 63% are opposed to the bill. Flymike's post is reproduced in full below, and we'll explain soon why in a national security blog we are talking of health care.

· Health Care Law 63% Favor Repeal of National Health Care Plan Monday, May 24, 2010

· Support for repeal of the new national health care plan has jumped to its highest level ever. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 63% of U.S. voters now favor repeal of the plan passed by congressional Democrats and signed into law by President Obama in March.

· Prior to today, weekly polling had shown support for repeal ranging from 54% to 58%.

· Currently, just 32% oppose repeal.

· The new findings include 46% who Strongly Favor repeal of the health care bill and 25% who Strongly Oppose it.

· While opposition to the bill has remained as consistent since its passage as it was beforehand, this marks the first time that support for repeal has climbed into the 60s. It will be interesting to see whether this marks a brief bounce or indicates a trend of growing opposition.

· Thirty-three percent (33%) of voters now believe the health care plan will be good for the country, down six points from a week ago and the lowest level of confidence in the plan to date. Fifty-five percent (55%) say it will be bad for the nation. Only three percent (3%) think it will have no impact.

· The Political Class continues to be a strong supporter of the plan, however. While 67% of Mainstream voters believe the plan will be bad for America, 77% of the Political Class disagree and think it be good for the country.

· The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on May 22-23, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

· Sixty-three percent (63%) of all voters expect the health care plan to increase the federal deficit. Just 12% expect the bill to push the deficit down, while 13% say it will have no impact.

· Fifty-five percent (55%) say the plan will make the quality of health care in the country worse. Twenty percent (20%) expect it to improve the quality of health care, and 18% think quality will stay about the same.

· Fifty-five percent (55%) also expect the health care plan to drive up the cost of health care rather than achieve its stated goal of causing those costs to go down. Only 18% believe health care costs will indeed go down because of the plan’s passage. Another 16% expect costs to stay about the same.

· Male voters remain more critical of the health care plan than female voters.

· While sizable majorities of Republicans and voters not affiliated with either major party continue to favor repeal of the plan, most Democrats remain supportive.

0230 GMT May 26, 2010

· DPRK has its usual temper tantrum and has severed all ties with the South, all accompanied by the usual crude language more akin to that used by petty hoodlums than states.

· Now, what do you do to hoodlums? You whack them, just as Jamaica is doing. In that Caribbean country the government has been trying to arrest a top drug lord for extradition to the US, and his followers have been resisting. The other day they killed two policemen. The government struck back. It says 31 have died including three security forces, but hospitals say they have received at least 62 bodies. The dead include civilians killed by the drug lord's men. Other gangs have joined in, so we assume the toll will climb. But the Jamaican prime minister has made clear he will not back down.

· Admitted that DPRK is a problem of a different order of magnitude than a drug lord. At the same time, US needs to call an end to the farce of dealing with DPRK. Sever all relations, embargo all strategic goods to and from, impose an air and sea blockade to check, and if China wants to keep supporting the North, let it take the consequences. Legal basis? That DPRK is a totalitarian state guilty of the gravest human rights violations. Can't do that? Why not? The west did it to South Africa to break the apartheid regime, and the atrocities committed by the white government pale to insignificance when compared to the atrocities DPRK has committed, and continues to commit, every single day.

· No, we still can't do it because its too hard. Right. That's a fair answer. Then stop pretending you're a superpower. Get out of ROK's way and let it go overtly nuclear. Can't do that. Why not? US decided decades ago defending Israel against an existential threat was too hard, it let Israel go nuclear. US is constantly threatening Iran for trying to go nuclear, and according to DPRK, it already has gone nuclear.

· Time to play or leave the table. Otherwise US will cement its position as the Just Can't Do It state.

· 63% of Americans oppose health care bill? Flymike sends this figure. We have seen similar ones, though none as high. Government said that once people find out what's in the bill they'll be happy. Well Jeez Louise. Aren't we entitled to a bill that most people can understand? And who can understand a near-2000-page bill? We are all for a minimal level of health care for everyone. But not the way the government has gone about it.

· Seems the more people learn about the bill worse they feel. Sure, lot of anti information out there is propaganda. But so a bunch of stuff the government has said.

· $150-million per acre? That's what a Bombay developer paid for six acres. Not in downtown, by the way, but in South Bombay.

0230 GMT May 25, 2010

No, we did not skip a day. Somewhere along the way Editor got his dates messed up.

· Tonight is one of those "not tonight my dear, I have a headache" nights and it is brought on by four news items.

· Pakistan casualty claims for Orakzai Pakistan is claiming a 45: 1 kill ratio of Taliban to Pakistan forces in its operations in Orakzai. What the government hopes to gain by this fantasy is beyond us. The reality is that far fewer Taliban are being killed than government claims, and government losses are higher, though not by much. Both Indian and US intelligence say that Pakistan is making up Taliban casualty figures for its air and gunship attacks, and on top of that many of those killed are civilians.

· The Army Chief's term is ending in November 2010 so another drama is taking place. The Defense Minister rashly said there will be no extension, which statement as all know is whistling in the dark. To underline the foolishness of the defense minister, Pakistani corps commanders say they went General Kayani to stay as the chief until CI operations are over. Since they are not going to be over for donkey's years, this is just a subtle way for the army to say: "We'll decide if and when a new chief is appointed,"and this is no more than the simple reality of Pakistan today.

· The Prime Minister is by no means a stooge of the Army, but let us be polite and say the Army sees no reason to rule openly, and the real ruler of Pakistan is the Army Chief - thus it has been, is, and will be. At one stage US cared a lot that Pakistan should have a true democratic government, but after the death of Mrs. Bhutto, Washington's Viceroy to Islamabad, and the fiascos with her husband, US frankly our dears does not give a darn.

· US has had it up to its eyeballs with Pakistan governance, and all it wants is a compliant Army Chief. Which is sad, because the army Chief US removed, General Musharraf, was compliant, and General Kayani, his successor is anything but. General M was a good natured duffer, eager to please. General K. is a tough-minded, cold fish who reputedly doesn't even let on to himself what he is thinking, he is that tight-mouthed. From what we hear, General K. would happily kick the US Ambassador and General Petraus and especially Mr. Holbrooke from one side of Pakistan to the other, and then back again. There is no love lost.

· Then the Indians are going bizzaro with a new weapon systems development road map, a 79 page document that says India will have stuff like ASAT, directed energy weapons, and loitering smart bombs among other things. The Indians have not been properly brought up, you can tell, because they are ignoring grandma's strict instructions: clean your plate before you get dessert. The Indians want their dessert first, and want to stuff themselves so full of it they will have no room for the main meal.

· So, India, how about some simple stuff like new howitzers and helicopters, and reequipping the air force, which is in about the same state as those sorry-looking spavined donkeys you see in the urban areas. How about getting on with the mechanization of the ground forces, basic stuff like that which is running a 25-yerar modernization backlog.

· But - oh no, that's not exciting, we cant be bothered.

· On top of this Triple Excedrin Headache comes the fake drama US and ROK are playing re the sinking of the ROK Navy corvette. Seoul has finally come out and named DPRK as the culprit, and suspended all trade with the north. Let's see how long that lasts. US, meantime, is stage managing a hot-air resolution in Congress, which will condemn DPRK, and is staging a naval exercise with ROK. Ooooooo, we bet the DPRK is really scared.

· People, your warship has been sunk. That is an absolute and complete act of war. Do ROK and US have no pride? Guess not. Can't risk war, they say. Normally people surrender after they've been defeated. US and ROK have surrendered before anyone has done a thing.

· Meanwhile - oh can you believe those Chinese - PRC has told US and ROK to go off somewhere private and do unmentionable things, because they are not going to crack down on the DPRK regime. If they did, the regime would die without a shot being fired.

· The PRC rationalization? "We cant afford instability in DPRK because we'll get swamped with refugees." Pardon us while we go to hospital to get stitched up the hernia we just got laughing. The Chinese are perfectly capable of making sure not even a crippled squirrel can get into their country. They don't want the DPRK regime to fall because they don't want the Koreas unified and a thriving, democratic Korea right on their border.

0230 GMT May 23, 2010

· Is the US really addicted to oil? This question is posed by Reader Flymike. Here's one way of looking at it. In 1939, the US was using 1-billion-barrels/year of oil, for a GDP of $267-billon (2005 prices). In 2010, US GDP is $13.25-trillion dollars (2005 prices) and oil consumption is ~7-billion-barrels/year. GDP has gone up 50 times, oil use has gone up only seven times. Roughly, US is getting seven times the GDP per barrel of oil than was the case in 1939. http://www.bea.gov/national/Index.htm for GDP figures.

· Now, that doesn't tell us how efficiently the US is using energy compared to 70 years ago, because there are other types of energy in the mix - coal, nuclear, hydro, alternative. But it seems to us that a case can be made that in the last 70 years the US has been using oil ever more efficiently, and in that sense it is not addicted to oil. After all, we doubt back in the day anyone complained of the US oil addiction, so why now?

· Agreed that the US uses more oil than - say - the EU (5.3-billion-barrels/year) for a $16.5-trillion GDP compared to US $14.5-trillion (2009 prices). But Europe is densely populated and has excellent public transport as well as great rail service. People don't need to drive as much or travel as long distances to begin with. US has 775-cars/1000; Japan, which is a highly urbanized and congested country with superb public transport has 612. That's not much different, especially considering the US per capita GDP is higher, but you wont hear about the Japanese oil addiction.

· Now if you're going to say that US must cut its use of oil because we import a lot of it from unstable countries, Editor is with you. There is a very serious case to be made for reducing oil imports on strategic grounds. If you're going to say we need a lot more public transport, Editor agrees. If you say we need to reduce oil consumption for strategic reasons by taxing gasoline higher, let's talk about the pros and the cons. If you say the US population growth cannot be sustained, sure there is a case for that line of argument. But none of that means the US is addicted to oil.

· Agreed there is a lot more to this. But overall, US has been steadily improving its energy efficiency. We'll have to check the figure for you tomorrow, but its something like the US uses have the energy per dollar of GDP as it did 30-years ago. meanwhile, take a look at http://www.need.org/needpdf/infobook_activities/IntInfo/ConsI.pdf to appreciate how efficient the US has been regarding energy use. For example, average mpg for passenger cars has gone from 13 in 1973 to 30 today and we're still getting better. Doing more with less is not an addiction. Energy costs money. Back in the day Americans were profligate with energy compared to today because it was so cheap. It isn't so cheap now, and Americans have responded by using less and less to do more. It's called supply-demand, and has nothing to do with addicition.

0230 GMT May 22, 2010

· Pakistan Our South Asia correspondent Mandeep Singh Bajwa checked in for a few minutes. We asked about the possibility Pakistan will give in to US pressure and launch anti-Taliban operations in North Waziristan. He said there is no chance at all a real operation will take place, especially with the US preparing to reduce its role in the country. Pakistan will not attack the pro-Pakistan Taliban and destroy its ability to control Afghanistan after the US withdrawal. After Pakistan can stall no more, we might see a Sound and Fury Signifying Nothing operation, with lots of attacks on empty hills - after the Taliban have been warned in advance to lay low.

· Mandeep says the Pakistan Army's paramount concern at this time is not anti-Taliban operations, but on extracting the maximum aid from the US so Pakistan can build the capability to neutralize India's Cold Start. Mandeep says Pakistan has suspended plans to create a IV Corps Reserve (an armored division) to focus on another project, the creation of a new Army Reserve South (1 armored and 1 mechanized division). at that point II Corps will become Army Reserve Center and at some later point the IV Corps Reserve can be raised, completing Pakistani deployments.

· We asked what India was doing to counter all these new Pakistan armored divisions - three since 1999 and two more planned. Mandeep said India is not doing anything besides the marginal incremental increases in armor we've already discussed several times. India believes its Cold Start strategy is working in that Pakistan is badly rattled as evidenced by the new raisings. Aside from building up against China, India is preparing the tools needed to neutralize Pakistan's strategic resources at the start of war. Its long-term plan is to spend Pakistan into the ground.

· We'll comment another time on what we think about Indian strategy. We had mentioned to readers that India's official doctrine on Pakistani N-weapons has changed and the Indians will not be deterred. Mandeep's information takes the Indian doctrine to another level. Yes, we already hear the gasps from American strategists who will now start talking about the immensely destabilizing effects of the new Indian strategy of taking out Pakistan N-forces, launch on warning and so on and so forth. Editor's reaction? Yawn. Time for another chocolate.

· You see, American N-strategists think they're the cat's whiskers. But they were wrong about their own doctrine in the nuclear age, they were wrong on USSR doctrine, and frankly my dear, they don't know a darn thing about India and Pakistan. Okay, you may say, we'll concede the last part, but we need proof that Americans were wrong on their own N-doctrine and that of the USSR. That's an absurd statement. Not really. The Editor will produce his reasoning after he retires from full-time teaching. In India he was in a situation where he could spend 90% of his time studying and 10% on earning a living. Here its the other way around and simply for financial reasons he cannot take time off.

· Debka Story on US plans against Iran Chris Raggio sent this link to a Debka story saying US was preparing 4-5 carrier battlegroups against Iran. http://www.debka.com/article/8794/ At least twice a year Debka likes to quote its "Military sources" as saying an attack against Iran is imminent, so we paid the story no mind. Debka doesn't seem to understand US carrier battlegroup deployments, nor how the carriers operate. For example, it says that US will have 4-5 CBGs visible from Iranian shores. In reality, US carriers will never be seen from Iran's shores or anyone else shores because they operate hundreds of kilometers from the coast. Moreover, we doubt Iran or just about anyone can even detect US CBGs at sea, satellites or not.

· Anyway, in the intel biz you have to check out every lead, no matter how absurd. We asked our US Navy expert Terry Shifflet for his opinion. The reply: There has been no increased operation tempo out of Norfolk Naval Station, a carrier group just departed on a scheduled deployment & a fair number of units are in the midst of BaltOps 2010. No indications of a surge to 5th Fleet AOR (or ROK for that matter).

· Reader Todd Croft sent his comments on how to tell from carrier movements if anything is going to happen, and Editor sees nothing much has changed since he used to track the US Navy in the 1960s and 1970s. For Debka's benefit, we reproduce Mr. Croft's letter.

· The Truman is part of the standard rotation, and I wouldn't describe the deployment as "massive". I've been aware of their workup for a couple months now (as well as the Stennis), and I've known the date of their deployment for 2-weeks now ...so it's not sudden either.

· IF Obama is planning action, then watch for one of the other active carriers to surge deploy (and this is the season for surges). I would watch the Washington out of Japan, Stennis out of Washington (which is the next carrier tasked to deploy, per my tracking and info), the Bush to maiden voyage deploy, or the Lincoln to snap-surge deploy.

· I've noticed several carriers go in /out of their homeports, so expect training rotations to change and possibly a surge.

As for Amphibs, I'd watch the Iwo Jima, Wasp, Makin Island and Peleliu. They've been fairly active, but I haven't been watching their training regimen well enough to tell which is deploying next.

· But again, as for action, 1 carrier can mount a snap surprise for a limited engagement duration. Two carriers can likewise mount a snap surprise, and sustain it for a little longer before settling back into a sustainable routine. Three carriers are the minimum number needed to mount sustained offensive ops. But, only someone with no intelligence capability couldn't see that one coming, so it forfeits surprise.

·

0230 GMT May 21, 2010

The Vietnam Syndrome - II

Saying you served when you did not

· Like our former president Mr. Bill Clinton and our former vice-president Mr. Dick Cheney, the Harvard ROTC class thought they were to smart, too precious, to become infantrymen in a war where - big surprise - the infantry was doing the dying. How smart were these young men, now part of the American elite? We leave it to you to judge:

· As a test of map reading, the Army ROTC instructor put on the table a large scale ordnance map with a river running through it. The task of these preciously smart young men? "You've been sent to find a crossing across this river. Back of you is an entire corps, 120,000 men, and every one of them is waiting on you. Shells and bombs are going both ways and your corps is taking casualties. It has to get across the river, close with and destroy the enemy, and do so soonest. Every one from the corps commander on down is watching you. Where are you going to cross this river?"

· Answer: silence. No one could figure it out. They were that smart.

· So, you will say, maybe its as well none of these young men got to Vietnam. Safer for their men, no?

· Let's go back to the British upper class. No one thought that because you were born into the elite you necessarily had smarts of any kind. But when the nation called, you were expected to serve. And no one is so stupid that he cannot lead his men from the front, even though that means he is going to be the first shot down down. The British didn't expect you to come back alive, they expected you to lead by example. If you made it back in one piece, good for you. If you didn't, you'd done your job for God, King, and Country.

· Why would you risk your life like this? Because you were part of the elite. You had privileges simply for being born to the right parents. Didn't matter if you were thick as two planks, you were entitles to your privilege by right of birth. In return the country asked you lead from the front. In short, it was your duty.

· By attending and graduating from Harvard, you were automatically part of the elite. It was your duty to serve.

· And a shockingly large number of young men at Harvard and other elite institutions decided they were not going to do their duty, because that duty was stupid and dangerous to their health. They were destined for bigger things, not for cannon fodder.

· But in the meantime, boys who were not as fortunate as these young men were being drafted left and right. Their sole crime? Not attending an elite institution, or - in most cases - not attending college at all. Back in the day relatively few Americans went to college - Editor seems to recall it was something like 20%, which was still four times more than was the case in Britain.

· Well, the elite boys laughed at the el stupidos who couldn't escape the draft. Some who were active in the peace movement justified themselves by saying they were fighting in their own way: trying to end the war so that the factory boys and inner city boys and farm boys could get back alive.

· But duty is the harshest taskmistress a human being can endure. Duty does not care how precious you are, or inconvenient you find it do your duty. Duty is unrelenting: you either do your duty or you don't, there is no rationalization, no excuse, no spin. You have to do your duty, else you are a failure.

· At least one person at Harvard that I personally know of, a naval ROTC officer who couldn't have afforded Harvard but for the military and who absolutely did not agree with the war still did his duty: he served his four years, including combat service, and when he left the service, he became a big opponent of the war. He did the right thing.

· At least one other person at Harvard that I personally know of listened to his conscience and made no effort whatsoever to escape punishment. A Quaker, he could have simply asked for alternate duty, such as working as an orderly in a hospital. But when he appeared before the draft board and told them he was a Quaker, he also said: "If my country was invaded, I would pick up a gun and fight, Quaker or not, because it my country. But I will not fight for my country when it has invaded another country."

· Given your typical draft board was made up of middle and lower class citizens who had fought in World War II and perhaps again in Korea, there was no love lost for Harvard types. They enthusiastically recommended his prosecution for refusal to serve, and he got the maximum five years in jail, which he served. They did have parole in those days, but there are few men who would rather go to an American prison that to claim exemption on the basis of their religion.

· This young man did his duty. The others, including the good attorney-general of Connecticut, also a Harvard graduate, did not.

· Editor can tell you exactly what happened next. As this man grew older, his conscience started bothering him. He realized he was not a full man, because he did not do his duty. Hating himself, he invented a fictitious past as a Marine who served in Vietnam. This is not pop psychology. This is the way it happens, and it becomes particularly bad the first time you wake in the middle of the night, drenched in sweat, and drenched in dread, because you have suddenly realized, as sure there is a sunrise and a sunset, that death is waiting for you, and you will not escape. And you will die having evaded your duty.

· By the way, the Marines as elite troops had a particularly bad war. With a peak strength of two reinforced divisions, over a seven year period they took 12,000 killed and near 40,000 wounded. This does not tell the real story, because the bulk of those losses were for the rifle, weapons, and reconnaissance companies, of which - if Editor is not wrong - there were a peak of 90 or so in Vietnam. It was quite normal for rifle companies to take 100% casualties during their year of service. So the good attorney general not just insults all veterans, his is a double insult because he claims to have served as a Marine.

· Now, plenty of people did not do their duty in those days. Editor did not. Don't mistake him: as a non-resident and non-citizen he had no obligation. He made one attempt to enlist, was rejected because he had no birth certificate, and when he discussed the matter with his father - an affidavit from your parent was acceptable, his father asked him not to persist as it would be particularly embarrassing for him as a foreign diplomat. The entire darn world was down on America because of the war including India, of which country Editor was, and is, a citizen.

· Well, Editor did not try again, and it did not take long for him to figure out that since he had never listened to his father, saying "Dad doesn't want me to" was a pretty pathetic excuse. Editor at the time was married to an American citizen and planned to live in America. As such it was his duty to serve regardless of the law.

· So when Editor is talking about the good attorney-general, Editor is not adopting a superior moral posture. But the Editor is not going to say: "I didn't do my duty, why should I judge another for not doing his?" This is moral relativism, and Editor belongs to a generation where morals were not relative, but absolute. The Editor knows he did wrong, he has accepted the consequences for doing wrong, and right now he is not quite ready to discuss what those consequences were. It doesn't matter that the Editor did not do his duty, the good attorney-general not only did not do his duty, he lied about it.

· Editor is not a puritan, for example, he believes Mr. Bill Clinton's personal life was his personal life. Womanizing and lying about it does not make a man unfit to be a president. What made Mr. Clinton unfit was that he not just evaded his duty, he committed a crime, and such a person cannot - obviously - serve as Commander-in-Chief.

· (You will recall that Mr. Clinton said he didn't receive his draft notice because he was studying in England. But the draft notice was delivered to his house in the mail, and it's a bit much to assume his mother did not tell him about it. Further, knowing that he would receive such a notice when he graduated from Yale, it was his obligation to keep track of the matter. Georgetown, Oxford, Yale...you can't get more elite that that, and that Mr. Clinton had humble beginnings and earned his place at all three colleges/universities does not excuse him, as an inducted member of the elite, from doing his duty.)

· The Editor must now apologize because he has used all his time today on this question of the Connecticut attorney general and there is no time left to discuss three very interesting letters from Reader ex-USAF Flyboy on the subject of the good attorney-general, from Reader Flymike in are Americans really addicted to oil?, and last from Reader Chris Raggio on a debka.com article saying US is positioning itself for a strike on Iran. If readers will forgive the Editor, he will take up all three matters tomorrow.

0230 GMT May 21, 2010

The Vietnam Syndrome - I

Saying you served when you did not

· So here's the attorney-general of the State of New York, characterized as being ultra-smart, making repeated references or suggestions to his time in Vietnam. So it turns out he got five deferments, and when the deferments ran out, he enlisted in the Marine Corps Reserve and did his time in Washington. Editor didn't know this, but apparently it was not easy to get a spot in the USMCR, and apparently it assured the enlistee he wouldn't have to serve in Vietnam. We'll leave it to someone who knows these things better to explain why this was the case.

· So when finally Mr. Ultra-Smart was finally caught in his lies, he said "...that he had misspoken about his service during the Norwalk event and might have misspoken on other occasions. “My intention has always been to be completely clear and accurate and straightforward, out of respect to the veterans who served in Vietnam,” he said. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/18/nyregion/18blumenthal.html

· Well, if you read the story you'll see he did anything but misspeak, but that's between him and the voters he seeks to reach in his run for the Senate.

· Just incidentally he seems to have a penchant for lying, because he has also spoken of his time as the captain of the Harvard swim team, and he wasn't even on the swim team.

· Now, having trod lightly (very lightly) through the landscape of the 1960s in America, Editor is familiar with the saw: "If you remember the Sixties you weren't there." And indeed, the Editor is not entirely clear what he did in the 'sixties, but that wasn't because he walked through the decade drunk and stoned. In his memoirs he intends to write some day, Editor will explain why there was a disconnect between the reality that the majority of the the population agreed on and Editor's memories of that time.

· But that said, it's pretty serious for someone who is supposed to be smart as this man to claim on numerous occasions he served in Vietnam, and it just goes right the core of his moral corruption that he claims he was the swim team captain. But - whatever. We aren't particularly interested in this pathetic creature, who you'd think would be scrambling to find a big rock under which to hide, but who in true Boomer style is refusing to take responsibility for his lies.

· Rather, we're interested in what makes people claim they went to Vietnam when they did their darnest to avoid going there, and particularly what makes a member of the American elite, such as this fellow, claim to have served when they did their best not to.

· Before Editor gets into that, he has to tell you a story which will put what he is about to say in context.

· US combat ground forces have entered Vietnam, and its already clear to everyone that Vietnam is a very, very unpleasant place, not to say a dangerous place for those who have a high regard for their skin - like the Editor. The scene is Army ROTC, at graduation time. The branch assignments for the seniors are being announced one by one, and there is much cheering and whistling and loud clapping as each army ROTC senior walks up to shake the head of department's hand.

· Just to remind: the military paid for four years of college - whichever college you got into - in exchange for four years service. They paid for your books, gave you a stipend, send you for training every summer for which you also got paid, and so on and so forth. That's taxpayers' money, and for many a youngster at Harvard the money meant being able to attend an elite Ivy, instead of going off to State U, which is all their parents might have been able to afford.

· So the announcements are being made: "X - JAG Corps; Y - medical school; Z - Signals; A - Transportation..." etc etc. If you think you see a pattern here, you do. "B - armor, Europe, C - artillery, Europe..." lot of good natured ribbing, which B and C good naturedly accept.

· Then comes the bombshell: "D - infantry, Vietnam". Moment of astonished silence. Eruption of catcalls, jeers, "he's always been so stupid", "what a loser" etc etc. No good nature here, and the recipient of the attention is sitting there, tight and angry, looking like he wants to jump up and punch people in the face.

· So: here we have a situation where one of perhaps 40 officers actually sees it neccessary to serve his country in return for what the country has done for him, and the other Harvard young men think he's a loser for not having chosen a safe billet. So what can you expect from a Harvard graduate of the Boomer years? Very little indeed.

· To be continued

· Gulf rig blowout BP says it is siphoning off 5,000 barrels/day now. But underwater pictures show the leak is still gushing oil. Naturally people will say "ooh these lying oil companies", but from what we read the science of estimating deep sea leaks is not well established. BP says it is using figures estimated by others, including the US Coast Guard.

· Unloaded and locked Reader Luxembourg sends us a blog article that says a unit in Afghanistan has been told it cannot patrol with chambered rounds. http://www.blackfive.net/main/2010/05/amber-status-troops-patrolling-with-cold-weapons.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Blackfive+%28BLACKFIVE%29

· We thought this is to avoid civilian casualties. So naturally we expected the letters to the blog would be a huge uproar. Much to our surprise, the first letter in response says that it's neccessary to have this policy to avoid friendly casualties.

0230 GMT May 20, 2010

· The Taliban need serious help Approximately 20 attacked Bagram Air Base in darkness, 12 were killed in return for nine US wounded. Given the size of Bagram, this attack is so stupid that one cannot find adequate words. Even more absurd, this lot attacked a gate, which is hitting a fortified complex at its strongest defended point. The sort of attack the Taliban mounted seems more an impromptu escapade with people drugged to the eyebrows and less a military operation.

· Of course, the Taliban are not soldiers in any real sense. For one thing, they fight when they feel like it, and go home when they feel like it. But still. Why throw your life away for no military or political purpose? This is not bravery, it's idiocy.

· http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/05/us_troops_repel_comp.php

· India's road building on the China border We've wondered many times why India is so slow and indifferent in its program to upgrade its road network on the China border, given that the Chinese for at least 12-13 years have been building up Tibet infrastructure like crazy.

· There is a partial explanation in the Indian defense blog Broadsword (May 10, 2010 post). In the Northeast India state of Arunachal, where India has recently raised two divisions to strengthen its defenses, the land is owned by the tribes. This is different from the rest of India, where land not owned by private persons belongs to the government. So every time a road has to be built, negotiations with the tribes - and there are many, many of them, must take place.

· Then, environmental clearance has to be obtained. Then the labor has to be organized. Because the area is restricted, any labor wanting work in the state has to have security clearance, and according to Broadsword, the bureaucrats take their job very seriously. Its not easy to get clearance.

· If this isn't enough, the Border Roads Organization has no medium lift helicopters of its own. So it has to beg lift from the Indian Air Force. The IAF says its medium lift is tied down supporting the army - and the reason this is so is, of course, there are no roads to most places the Army is deployed. So now Border Roads is trying to charter helicopters from an oil rig support company.

· http://ajaishukla.blogspot.com/2010_05_01_archive.html

· Elia Kazan, the film director and screenwriter, was also a novelist. He wrote a moving memoir of immigrating to America that he called "America, America". Editor often wonders if he should write a book saying "India, India." The problem is, there will be nothing moving about the book. It will be a black farce from start to finish. What's more no one except Indians will believe it's all true.

· For those who are interested it's very much harder for the Indians to build roads on their side than is the case for the Chinese. Tibet is a rocky plateau. On the Indian side, the terrain goes from the Brahmaputra Valley to 4000-meters in a relatively short distance. The Himalayas are young and highly unstable. Winding roads have to be cut through dense mountain forests. Rainfall can be extremely heavy, wiping out the best prepared roads.

· But yet, Indians can build roads with great speed if they have to. There is a book that used be in the library of the Institute of Defense Studies and Analyses, at Sapru House in New Delhi, which tells the story of how the Manali-Leh Road was built between 1962-65. Its not a journalistic account, but an engineer's diary type of thing. The Indians had hardly any heavy equipment at that time, but they did the job. The road, incidentally, was built as an alternate in case Pakistan cut the Sonamarg-Leh Road while an emergency with China was underway.

· And speaking of the environment we had a good laugh when we learned from the Washington Post that offshore drilling is not going to do much good for Virginia, which is very anxious to drill. That's because the US Navy has ruled out drilling in 72% of the offshore areas, saying it will interfere with its operations. Further, a lot of the remaining 28% is heavily trafficked shipping lanes.

· Meanwhile, BP says it is now siphoning off 3000-barrels a day of oil from the leak. If the original estimate of 5,000-barrels-day is correct, this is major progress, but so many days have passed that oil has started to reach coastal beaches and wetlands. BP says it could attempt a "top-kill" to seal the well as early as Sunday, but warns that no one has tried such a procedure at that depth

0230 GMT May 19, 2010

· Yuan "far from ready" to become a reserve currency says the Reserve Bank of India (the country's central bank. Likely the yuan will first become a regional currency. Regarding the Indian rupee, which is already fully convertible on current account, the Reserve Bank says making it fully convertible on capital account, an Indian goal, would lead to greater volatility in the rupee. This is the Reserve Bank way of saying complete convertibility on capital account is not going to happen any time soon.

· Meanwhile, as is well known infrastructure shortcomings are a serious drag on the Indian economy which could jump growth from 8-9%/year to 10-11%% if the shortcomings were tackled. While India spent $500-billion on infrastructure 2007-2012, consideration is being given to raising this to $1-trillion over the the subsequent five years. Against the target of 20-km of superhighways/year set by the government, only 7-km/day is cleared for 2010-2011. This is causing the government to create plans for an additional $50-billion ro be spent as soon as possible. an underdeveloped bond market is blamed for the slow progress in infrastructure programs. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/infrastructure/India-plans-to-award-50-bn-road-projects/articleshow/5946383.cms

· Also meanwhile, the target for power plants will not be met, falling 20-gigawatts short of the 80-GW planned for 2007-2012. China, by contrast to India's current 160-GW, has reached 900-GW. Of course, China uses far more energy per dollar GDP than India, but still, the difference is enormous.

· Yuan revaluation will help, but not solve US-China imbalance We know people have been saying this for some time, but we decided to look into it ourselves. The analog here is Japan: thanks to US pressure, Japanese yen is four times more expensive in US dollars than was the case in 1970, but with the exception of 2 years in the last 40, Japan has continued to run a trade surplus with the US.

· In China's case people say the Yuan is 40% undervalued. Well, if a 400% revaluation didn't put Japan into a deficit with the US, a 40% revaluation is not going to do much against China. The problem, apparently, is not the Yuan-dollar rate as much as the Chinese have a systematic export policy they follow, doing whatever it takes by way of government regulations to keep China in massive surplus. US has neither an industrial policy nor an export policy.

· Bad news: China, Japan again buying US debt because of the Euro's crisis. This is bad because it postpones the inevitable day of reckoning on account of the US's happy borrowing. We'd mentioned sometime back an eminent Indo-American economist had said that the Euro crisis would benefit the US in the short run but make solving US problems that much harder, and this seems to be happening.

· One unpleasant fallout of the Euro crisis is the fall in the Euro against the dollar, making it much harder for the US to boost exports.

· Meanwhile, every day it seems we read another analysis saying Greece is not going to make it. The spending cuts it has agreed to refinance its debt are so extreme that (a) they are politically impossible to enforce; and (b) they will push Greece into recession or even depression, making it that much harder to pay off its new debts.

· There does seem to be some kind of consensus that a Greek default followed by increased pressures on Italy, Span, and Portugal is not going to sink the US recovery, but it isn't going to make things easier for us, either.

· For a brief story of how Israel turned itself around from a situation eight years ago when it was running deficits of 10% of GDP, read http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/business/israel-s-greek-crisis-1.290887 You have our permission to be shocked at how low Israeli and German debt to disposable income ratios are compared to the US - and the UK.

· The decline of the west This story concerns UK and not US, but do read how an AQ operative in UK cannot be deported because he would face torture if returned to his home country, Pakistan. US is in the same position regarding several Guantanamo prisoners it wants to release but cannot because no one will take them except their home country. American liberals say the best solution is to let them settle in the US if they have been found not guilty. Crazy. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/crime/article7129649.ece

0230 GMT May 18, 2010

Pakistan Taliban's Top Leaders
(Keep this for reference)
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/05/the_pakistani_taliba_1.php

· Supreme Court nominee Kagan has no paper trail says Times London in an amusing article. As such, we'd say she is the first pure post-Borkist (or Borkee if you prefer). Would be conservative Supreme Court justice Robert Bork (a Ronald Reagan nominee) had a definite view on everything and was not shy about putting things on record. That sank him and marked the start of "gottcha" nomination hearings on every proposed appointee because the Republicans never forgave the Democrats, the Democrats responded, and here we go around the mulberry bush forever and forever amen.

· Kagan, aside from her known opinion on not letting military recruiters on Harvard's Hallowed Grounds because of the military's position on homosexuals, apparently cannot be paired with any opinion on anything of interest.

· More amazing, no one seems to know anything about her personal life.

· Well, good for her, we say. A person who can rise to eminence without a single recorded opinion must be a remarkable person, doubly so if they can keep their personal life entirely themselves. You might even say, Kagan is the anti-Editor because no aspect of the latter's personal life is off-record, thanks to Editor's habit of whining and moaning in public should any of his ex-wives as much as look at him coldly.

· But one thing about the Times article surprises us. It's titled "Answer the lesbian question". The article explains why Kagan should, but we don't see it. Editor's attitude is that whatever a person chooses to do within their four walls is their business. We don't want to know about it, and we don't want them shoving their business in our face either. And we especially don't want other people shoving it in our face under the sick, prurient American rubric of "the people have a right to know."

· The sad reality of America is that even the 95+ percent who are not descended from the Puritans are completely hooked on Puritanical voyeurism. Someone has to start putting an end to this nonsense, and if it's to be Kagan, we are all for her. This country would free fantastic amounts of psychic energy if it would just start minding its own business and stop worrying about other people's morals. We might even start solving some of our problems.

· http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/andrew_sullivan/article7127574.ece

· Now, we know the American public feels it has a right to know what kind of toilet paper Editor uses and how many squares, and how many times a day. So the Editor is voluntarily about to tell you...what's that you say? You don't want to know about Editor and TP? Okay, so then why do you want to know about Kagan's sexuality? This is discrimination...

· On immigrants and identification Editor has no wish to wade into the illegal immigration debate. It's obvious the US lacks the political will to secure its borders. As far as Editor is concerned, US may as well eliminate the southern border and add the Mexican states to the flag, before the Mexicans add the American states to their flag. Whatever.

· But as a legal immigrant, on one aspect of the Arizona law the Editor needs to weigh in. People say that the police authority to demand proof of legal immigration status is this, that, and the other, whatever this that and the other is, and its plainly discriminatory etc etc.

· So, we'd like anti-immigrant-control people to know, us legal immigrants are required by law to have proof of our residency status on us at all times. Presumably the cops are not going to bust the Editor if he is on The Throne and his ID is in his wallet in the kitchen, but you know what he is saying.

· So we'd like people to explain to us: why is it discrimination or whatever to authorize police to check anyone's immigration status when in effect this law already exists as a federal requirement for legal immigrants?

· We also love the genius argument: "cracking down on illegals will make it harder for the police to solve crimes because illegals will be less willing to come forward with information." By that same logic, police should stop cracking down on criminals such as drug dealers and users, because the criminals might worry they'll get into trouble coming forward to give the police information about crimes in their communities.

0230 GMT May 17, 2010

· Turki-al Faisal has a truth fit and we wish we knew why. The former US ambassador to Washington and former Saudi intelligence chief was speaking to diplomats in Riyadh when he called the US effort in Afghanistan "inept". He then proceeded to make an inept suggestion of his own: the US should focus on killing terrorists on both sides and get out.

· We agree with the get out part, but since the business of killing terrorists can go on forever and a day, the good Prince is in effect arguing for a perpetual US presence in Afghanistan, in direct contradiction to his wanting the US out.

· Now, the Prince is a skilled diplomat, and surely much smarter than us - for one thing he is rich and we are not, but we do not see how the US can simultaneously leave Afghanistan and kill terrorists there.

· Next the Prince attacked the US and West for their hypocrisy for accepting other people's nuclear programs DPRK, Pakistan, India, and Israel, while condemning Iran's.

· We agree with the Prince, but have a suggestion for him. Iran poses a greater threat to Saudi Arabia than it does to US. So why doesn't Saudi Arabia handle the problem while the US moves on to other problems? That is if his government has time to spare from repressing Shias and its own people.

· The Prince says the Arab countries have given Mr. Obama four months to show progress in the Arab-Israel conflict, failing which US should recognize Palestine and then get out: "He can then pack up and leave us in peace and let the Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese negotiate directly with the Israelis. No more platitudes and good wishes and visions, please." http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/World/Middle-East/Inept-US-cannot-fix-Afghanistan-Top-Saudi-prince/articleshow/5935808.cms

· Here also we agree with him, with a small difference. US shouldn't recognize anyone. It should get out, hand over its files to the Saudis, and leave them to sort out the problem - something they have had tremendous success with over the last 62 years as we all know.

· Then the Prince worries about the US leaving Iraq as this could lead to instability. So here he wants the US to stay, but given Iraq is a sovereign country that has asked the US to leave, we are unsure what standing the US has to stay, even if it wanted to.

· All this begs the question: why has Turki-al Faisal decided to have a truth fit? Is this something personal because he is upset at the US for some reason, or is he reflecting official Saudi policy, in which case, what is Riyadh's point?

· Oh yes: one other place the US should leave: Saudi Arabia. We're surprised the Prince hasn't demanded that. Let's get out of Saudi Arabia and let the Saudis sink or swim on their own.

· It all keeps coming back to one simple theme: when your own house is burning, you cannot be out there playing at solving the world's problems. We say playing at because obviously only their own people can solve their countries' problems. How can we in America presume to have the wisdom and knowledge to solve the world's problems, particularly when we can't solve our own?

· Yankee, come home.

· Reader Arvind S writes to say forcing consequences on the US for its blind eye to Pakistan's war on India is easier said than did. What exactly does the eminent Editor suggest India do?

· The first thing India should do is to look at the problem by changing the paradigm. Right now we look at the problem in this way: the power distance between the US and India is so great, how can we possibly force consequences on the US? We need to instead say: What must we do to force consequences? Here are some ways.

· India can start by bringing up, each and every time, in each and every forum private or public, the same question: how can the US, which says it is fighting terror, indirectly support Pakistan, which exports terror to India? A vast public relations campaign needs to be waged to underline the US's anomalous position so that its "neutrality" is delegitimized.

· The second step is that the next time an agreement needs to be signed between India and the US, no matter how small, India should politely tell the US that since Washington is working against India, the agreement is not possible. It can be something simple like discouraging an Indian airline company from buying Boeing.

· But won't we hurt ourselves if we do that? Sure we will. No one claims standing up to the US is painless and without cost. If we aren't willing to sacrifice, we must resign ourselves to vassalage.

· The next step after the above is to hum and haw when discussing the next Indo-US military exercise. Perhaps the time isn't right, perhaps India must rethink what message it sends China, and so on.

· But don't' we need the US to help protect us? One question: since when has this been the case? It hasn't been true for sixty years. What's happened that that has changed?

· Three low key, easy to implement steps. Steps after that will have to be calibrated depending on the US response to the first steps.

· Editor doesn't expect India to do anything on any level, no matter how small, at this time. That's why we spoke of flying pigs. His remarks were really directed at the next generation.

· Plugging the Gulf of Mexico leak Partial success, at last. A pipe has been inserted into the damaged oil well riser and oil is being pumped into a barge. Natural gas coming along is being flared. Next step will be to force a special mud into the well at the rate of 40-barrels/minute, to reduce pressure, and then to push concrete into the well to seal it.

· We are so used to engineering marvels today that it's difficult for us ordinary folks to appreciate how rapidly and skillfully everyone has worked to block the well. The task is immensely difficult. It's good to know that when push comes to shove, America engineers can still get the job done. None of it would have been possible had the Government not suspended its normal environmental procedures because it and environmentalists calculated the harm to the environment from the unplugged well is far greater than from stop efforts. For once Americans were not trying to get the perfect solution - which does not exist for any problem - and were instead focused on getting the job done as soon as possible.

0230 GMT May 16, 2010

US expands UAV war to Khyber Agency
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/05/us_predators_carry_o.php

· Non-Kashmiri militants gather to infiltrate Indian Kashmir We, among others, have long predicted that the Taliban will become involved in the Kashmir insurgency. By 2004-05 the insurgency had begun to die down as the Indians became more skilled at stopping infiltrators. But last year Mandeep Singh Bajwa alerted us that a major 2010 push by foreign insurgents was in the offing. According to what Pakistan Kashmir locals tell BBC, foreigners who do not speak Kashmiri are gathering in the Neelum Valley.

· With increasing fencing and surveillance, the Indian Army has made traditional entry avenues into Indian Kashmir difficult, so insurgents are moving north where the terrain is not as well protected and is much wilder.

· The new areas are more sparsely populated, and thus the presence of foreigners is more easily detected. While we may expect the usual Pakistan denials about supporting the insurgents, in reality the entire Indo-Pakistan Kashmir border is a no-go area for civilians. You cannot be near the border on either side without the knowledge of the authorities. And since this new lot do not even speak the language, Pakistan cannot claim they are simply nationalists over whom Pakistan has no control.

· By the way, there is no way we can stop the US for taking credit for the post 2004 reduction in infiltration, but the reality is US has had zero influence on Pakistan regarding infiltration into Kashmir. Nor has the US pushed with any seriousness, confining itself to formulaic statements from time to time. No consequences have been laid out if Pakistan continues infiltration. The US is not just tolerant of this infiltration, it is actively assisting the Pakistan military for its own ends, and US is not about to expend political capital to help India.

· We hope by now India has figured out that as far as the US is concerned, there are insurgencies and there are insurgencies. Insurgencies which affect US interests are bad. Those that serve US interests are good. Those that are neither good nor bad for the US are ignored. Why India should expect a different US attitude is beyond us, and why India thinks the US should sort this out for India is also beyond us. India has to stand up for itself, and with utmost firmness explain to Washington its intervention in India-Pakistan relations serves only the interests of Pakistan, India's enemy. India gains nothing from the US in this area. And then India has to impose consequences on the US for allying itself with India's enemy.

· And when India imposes consequences on the US, the global Air Traffic Control system will crash because of the large numbers of flying pigs.

· Pakistan Taliban expands its influence to Balochistan province. Dawn of Karachi says Quetta schools have received letters from the Pakistan Taliban telling them to separate boys and girls, sequester the girls in purdah, and stop wearing western clothes.

· New Dostoevsky metro station in Moscow forced to postpone opening because panels depicting scenes from the famous author's works are - er - too depressing. Who knew?

0230 GMT May 15, 2010

· Pakistanis ask a valid question They say the Times Square bomber, comes from a professional family in Pakistan. His father is a retired 3-star air force officers - there are few officers of this rank in Pakistan. His family, friends, associates etc in Pakistan were not radical. The father sent the youngster to America to keep him safe from fundamentalist ideas. Youngster never showed much interest in religion - besides being religious, which most Pakistanis are. He studied in America, married, got a decent job etc. etc., never a hint of anything untoward.

· Yet in America youngster becomes a fundamentalist ready to kill innocent civilians.

· Pakistanis ask America: whose fault is this? Ours, or yours? They want to know what America did to him.

· As far as Editor is concerned, the only good fundamentalist is a dead fundamentalist. We have no sympathy for this youngster, who we hope gets 60 years in SuperMax and when he's in his 80s they've forgotten he exists so he can't be set free.

· At the same time, the Pakistanis do have a valid point. Can Americans answer them?

· Taking Kandahar will be a "process", not an "event" says the top US commander in Afghanistan. So there will be no D-Day and all that sort of nonsense.

· Now, we know soft CI is all the vogue in the US Army. Americans by their nature find it hard to be moderate: they are extremists in all that they do. But this soft CI is getting way, way out of hand. If taking Kandahar is a "process" - whatever this goopy loopy New Age nonsense means, why are we using the most expensively trained, equipped, and maintained soldiers the world has ever seen?

· If US forces are going to sit around campfires holding hands with the Taliban and singing Kumbayah and speaking in turn about their feelings and validating each other, we suggest the US Government go organize a new type of army, and leave the US Army alone so it can do what armies are supposed to do: kill the enemy, whether its conventional war or CI.

· True the idea of CI is to achieve your objectives with the minimum of collateral damage. So it is fought very differently from conventional war. But it still remains very much a matter of inflicting the maximum casualties at the most favorable exchange rate (money, effort, and lives), till such point the enemy realizes he has more to win by leaving the Dark Side.

· If the US wants an example of a successful CI, it needs only to study Sri Lanka. The Sri Lankans defeated the LTTE not by a process, but by killing so many the remainder had to give up. Sure, some cadres are still around, masquerading as civilians, plotting a great comeback. But now that the LTTE's back has been broken, and its remains run over multiple times with bulldozers, you can start the process - in this case of getting them reinvested in becoming a political party and part of the system.

· You cannot have a "process" when the Taliban are daily gaining strength, already control 80% of Afghanistan by night, and are sitting on the sidelines, laughing while the Americans run around in circles chasing their own tails, and waiting till the Americans get fed up and do what they've said they'll do: leave.

· We've said this before: US has made it amply clear it doesn't have the stomach to win in Afghanistan. That being the case, it is immoral in the extreme to keep troops there, risking lives and wasting money, just because the American Executive, in recent decades having become a gutless wonder, needs political cover to leave Afghanistan.

0230 GMT May 14, 2010

· US will not destroy Kandahar to save it says Secretary of State Clinton. Okay, if you don't get to blow up things, what's the point of war? The Marja non-campaign was a complete disappointment: nothing much got blown up. In fact, not much happened or has happened since the campaign was officially declared over. The Taliban are still around, the Afghan "government-in-a-box" helicopter in doesn't work, the residents are sitting on the fence, seeking some financial advantage from the US arrival without getting into too much trouble with the Taliban, and everyone is simply waiting for the US to go home. If there is going to be no real fighting in Kandahar, please lets bring the troops home as early as possible and teach them to knit and crochet and do needlepoint. At least they'll be doing something productive.

· UK pulls 500-Euro note from sale because the majority were being used for money laundering. Something we didn't know: in 2002 the Canadians issued a C$1000 bill and then shredded it because of money laundering.

· The problem is that - to take the US as an example - $10 today is equal to $1 sixty-years ago. The ubiquitous $20 is worth $2, and the $100-bill, the highest US denomination, is worth $10. So if you need or prefer cash and are not a money launderer you are stuck with mountains of currency. Maybe not everyone wants to keep their money in electronic digits. Maybe they want to look at it once in a while and assure themselves it's real.

· And isn't it time the US drops a zero off its money, introducing a half-cent to substitute for the nickel until inflation eliminates the value of the half-cent?

· US rushes to fund Israeli Iron Dome We'd mentioned Israel was looking for US money to fund its anti-rocket/artillery/mortar shell defense system, and one Israeli even had the gall to say that buying more Iron Domes for Israel would benefit the US, because then the US wouldn't have to worry about the fall-out from Israel attacking Gaza each time Hamas et al got hopped. The idea being Israel can use defensive measures to protect itself and not have to resort to offensive measures.

· Well, seems no sooner was this thought expressed when US decided to send Israel $200-million to buy more equipment. The Israeli Air Force doesn't want to pay for it because, it says, it prefers to spend its money for offensive weapons. In other words, it wants to pound Gaza. So the US is paying. And anyway, when is the last time pure defense worked for anyone? If someone thinks Hamas and Hezbollah and all can keep launching rockets at Israel, and Israel will just sit there contently playing Space Invaders with its Iron Dome weapons, they're dreaming. A central tenet of Israeli military doctrine is to make the other side's civilians, government, and military suffer if it attacks you, so the offensive operations will happen anyway, Iron Dome or no.

· There is something very, very wrong, even sick, with the US-Israel relationship.

· Spain and Portugal start cutting their budget deficits to reduce the chances they will go the Greece way. The minimum salary in Portugal is $600 and in Spain $800, lower even then the US minimum wage of $1160 ($7.25/hour for 160 hours/month). No guesses on whom the budget cuts will fall. Remember Eurocountries have VAT. We're told you have to pay VAT even on rent for your apartment.

0230 GMT May 13, 2010

· ROK Corvette Sinking Investigators have found traces of an explosive used in DPRK torpedoes amidst the raised wreckage of the Navy's corvette. ROK is still not making any direct accusations.

· Russia Releases Pirates captured after the its Navy rescued a hijacked Russian merchantman on May 7. So first the Russians said the 10 pirates would be taken to Moscow for trial. Then it said it was releasing the pirates due to issues of international jurisdiction and difficulty of ascertaining the pirates' nationalities.

· So we were pretty disgusted at the Russians, because all the above is simple legal mumbo-jumbo. Under the Law of the Sea anyone who captures pirates can try them.

· Now we have cheered up again. The Russians say they put the pirates in a rubber dinghy. Seems the pirates never made it back. The Russians say the pirates have, er, "perished". How can the Russians be so sure and in any case why would their Navy hang around and track if the men reached home safely?

· Well, the Russian Prime Minister has said with a straight face: "Until a legal system allowing hijackers to be punished is created, "we will have to act as our forefathers did when they met pirates," he said, without specifying how exactly the pirates should be punished." http://en.rian.ru/russia/20100511/158968138.html

· Good for the Russians.

· Talk about a long-term view Japan Railway has announced fares for its first long-distance MagLev train line - due to enter service in 2027. Fares have also been announced for the Tokyo-Osaka MagLev Line - due to open in 2045.

· Speaking of Japan Toyota has returned to profitability a year of ahead of schedule, with a $1.5-billion profit versus a $4.5-billion previous year loss. Despite its safety woes and potential litigation it faces, next year it expects a profit of $3-billion. (These figures are all rounded and approximated at today's exchange rates.)

0230 GMT May 12, 2010

· Mr. Cameron becomes youngest UK Prime Minister in 198 years...he is 43. Now we have to wait and see if the coalition with the Liberals works. The Liberals want to shift the electoral system to proportional representation, but this leaves many Conservatives cold because the current systems favors big parties. Then the Conservatives are for strict budget austerity including massive spending cuts, and the Liberals are left cold on that. Its pointless to say that the Brits have no choice but to cut services and increase taxes, because no one in UK wants to hear that message any more than people in the US want to hear it.

· Oh yes: forgot to mention, but just as everyone thought the Eurocrisis was getting resolved, turns out that Greece has been fudging its deficit figures. The real figures are higher, and it's not 100% certain how much higher - could be even worse than what's now being given. So the crisis is not over, and in any case the Greeks are never going to be able to pay back all the new borrowing.

· Editor is preparing for the inevitable crash: he found four nickels behind the sofa and has added it to his steadily growing cash horde. He'll announce in this blog itself when he has managed to save $10.

· Bloomie stay home We're confused. Mayor Bloomberg of New York City traipsed himself over to London to look, he said, at how the Londoners did their subway security. So he discovered they had 12,000 cameras in the London Underground and are adding 2000 more. A bit odd to have to cross the ocean to learn that - we learned it from reading Times London online, and it didn't cost us a dime.

· Mr. Bloomberg said: "...and I am here to learn from others, see what works best, and try to fix things before they become a problem." So we learn from National Public Radio that 2000 of New York City's 4000 subway cameras are not working. So the Mayor had to go to London to find out that the way you do surveillance is to, umm, have working cameras? Or perhaps he had to go over to find out how the British keep their cameras working? Or maybe to check what percentage of their cameras work? Or are we wrong in our suppositions and he had to go over to find out what a camera looked like?

· Whatever it is he is doing in London, if he has used one dollar of taxpayer money, he needs to return it. Mayor is said to be billionaire. He can afford to be stupid on his own buck.

· By the way, after the failed Times Square event, someone who is anti-surveillance cameras said words to the effect of: "See? What's the point of the cameras? They didn't catch the bomber." So as an exercise in logic, can we ask those of similar persuasion, if the cameras didn't catch the bomber, does it mean they are useless or New York City doesn't have enough? So police don't catch all crimes, so we should do away with the police? Patients die, so there's no need for doctors?

· And in light of what we now know about the subway cameras, maybe someone can tell us how many of New York's above ground cameras work?

· But Bloomie does not rise to Klasse Klowne Awarde Greatness: US Government Does The US Government has suddenly discovered that the Taliban is a terrorist organization and needs to be designated as such so its bank accounts in the US can be seized.

· But aren't we at war with the Taliban? Aren't they killing American and NATO soldiers and civilians? So it's okay to have your war enemy have US bank accounts if the enemy is not designated as terrorist?

· So are we awarding the USG a KKA? No, we're not.

· And the reason we're not, is that the USG is so phenomenally stupid, it has awarded itself a KKA. Editor's note to self: remind USG KKA is correctly worn on left butt cheek and a sign of proper format saying "Kick Me" is worn on the right butt cheek. It's not the other way around, USG. Gad, they can't even get that right...

· Today the Editor figured out another mystery He's been wondering why the US Army has taken to wearing its shirts outside its pants with no belt. Makes everyone look like they are disheveled and partially dressed. So today at school found his school uniform polo shirt half out of his pants, and rather than tuck it back in, he decided to wear it outside. A miracle: Editor's paunch was reduced by half in one go. Next step is a shirt five sizes too big, like the Army folks wear. Then there will be no paunch. Victory will be the Editor's.

0230 GMT May 11, 2010

· When US officials give statements you can never be sure what is the motivation. Are the speaking the truth, are they making a disinformation ploys, do they have political objectives in mind, or are they plain stupid?

· We ponder this deep question because we read in the Washington Post some official saying the Times Square bomber episode shows that US attacks against the Taliban and AQ are proving highly effective. The official's reasoning is that the IED did not go off, so the bomber was insufficiently trained, so this means he was trained by second-string operatives. so that means the first-string operatives are not available, so that means US attacks against the Taliban and AQ are working.

· So suppose the IED had gone off. Would we then get analysis saying US attacks against Taliban and AQ are not working? Where's the logic in either line of reasoning?

· After all, IEDs are not fool-proof. We usually know about the ones that do go off; the ones that don't we don't know about. So it's possible the man was not trained by an expert Taliban bombmaker. But, after all, the Taliban bombmaker makes bombs in Pakistan and Afghanistan, may be he doesn't know what US materials are available or how they will work. We aren't offering this as an alternative thesis, we're merely saying if this official wants to speculate one way, we can speculate the other way, and it doesn't make either of us right.

· Does the official have direct knowledge of the bomb and its design, and has it been determined that the thing was so amateurish it couldn't have worked? Do we know the gent received bombmaking training to begin with? Isn't it possible he went over and said: "Hey, I saw on the Internet how to make an IED, how about I do this?" and they said "Fine, fine, little guy, carry on" and that they gave him no training by an expert because they didn't trust him? Apparently they didn't trust the five Pakistani-Americans who land up to join the jihad. Isn't it possible that he was led to a bunch of wannabe terrorists who don't know when the little hand is on eight and the big hand is on twelve that its eleven o'clock? Isn't it possible that just a small error or chance made the device kaput. Isn't it possible you cannot use the firecrackers as igniters, and how would a Taliban who's never been to America know that?

· We could fill several pages with speculation and be nowhere near the truth. But if we were the official, we wouldn't draw any conclusion between US attacks on Taliban/AQ and the failure of the IED to work. we havent talked to anyone associated with the case, but think it's a reasonable assumption that the investigators are making no assumptions except that the good guys caught a break this time, and that has no implications for the future.

· There are more things in heaven and earth readers, than are dreamt of in our philosophy, if we may paraphrase the Bard. Most readers will know that from time to time the US has involved in researching weird stuff because of potential military use. Three things Editor has heard of himself are zombies, telekinesis, and invisibility. Zombies for their strength: Congo zombies are real and they are extraordinarily strong, likely because of plant potions fed to them. Telekinesis because it's useful to - say - quietly change the "arm" switch on a missile to "disarm". Invisibility needs to be explained. It's not real invisibility (though that is coming) but more like Obi Wan Kenobi saying quietly: "you will forget you saw us." It's the ability to get an officer to give you access codes without his remembering he saw you or gave you anything.

· But now the Indians are getting into the act. There is a 83-year-old yogi who claims he has neither eaten nor drunk water in seven decades. So he was sealed in a hospital room and watched for 15-days by a team of 30 medical personnel and surveillance equipment. Sure enough, the old boy neither ate, nor drank anything, and nor did he go to the bathroom. His physical conditions was constantly monitored and remained normal. Other tests like DNA will take months to analyze.

· So the Indian defense research lot are intrigued because, among other things, if this can be replicated, soldiers could survive without food and water.

· If you follow the paranormal, you'll know that almost always some fraud is discovered. For example, here's a common one: walking across a bed of lighted embers in bare feet. So the trick here is to coat your feet with an insulating ointment, which you make from plants and clays, and then you quickly tiptoe through the tulips smacking people with a flower. Helps if you have walked around bare feet all your life and have calluses several millimeters thick.

· Remains to be seen what comes of the non-eating/non-drinking yogi.

· The story is from http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/sci-tech/03-starving-yogi-astounds-indian-scientists-ss-03

· Greek crisis's first casualty: Germany Chancellor In regional elections for North Rhine Westphalia, the Chancellor's party was defeated. German opposition at the Greek bailout, running at 80% according to UK Independent, is reported as the cause. The loss threatens her coalition majority in the Upper House

· We have to admire her for sticking to her principles and pushing the Greek bailout even though it is very unpopular in Germany, but as usual with politicians, sticking up for principles usually sees you out of the door. As the incoming new leader may need to reverse course, setting yourself up for the fall may have no point, particularly as the rest of your program goes bye-bye.

· Venezuela inflation hits 30% while Hugo tweets reports reader Luxembourg. The Prez has begun tweeting and says he has 237,000 followers, compared to 234,000 following Globovision, now the sole independent TV station left in the country since Hugo has shut down or taken over all the others.

· Hugo says he will hire 200 aides to help him deal with his tweets. Are we being less than generous in suggesting that among the aides' duties will be generating more accounts?

· But was really puzzles is that Hugo is a gargantuan speaker: he goes on for hours and hours. So how is he managing to restrain his words?

· India supplied an armored division by air in its recent wargames, reports Reader Sparsh. We assume it was part of a division, say a spearhead brigade. A full refill for the F echelon vehicles of a tank battalion-sized battlegroup alone is 60-tons, add 90-tons for one line of ammunition plus other stuff and that's 200-tons of cargo right there. Still, it's good that India has attempted the exercise. Baby steps, but worthy steps.

· India is still refusing to address the biggest problem with its strike corps: less than half the battalions in each strike corps are mechanized, the rest are plain truck carried infantry, and there is no SP artillery. Pakistan is mechanizing infantry divisions that accompany its armored divisions, and it has SP artillery.

· US preparing for scramjet tests The X-51 will be tested as many as four times this year. Dropped from a B-52 15,000-meters up, a conventional rocket motor will take the vehicle to Mach 4.7, which will allow the scramjet to kick in and fly at up to Mach 6. Current technology permits flights of only 10 seconds (X-43) that speed; the X-51 is designed to give 300-seconds of powered flight.

· Only partial success with Falcon program We'd discussed the Minuteman-launched Falcon hypersonic global strike vehicle last month. Apparently contact with the vehicle was lost after 9-minutes. The 2011 test with the second vehicle will go ahead as planned. We learn Falcon is only one of three designs under evaluation. Also, the Falcon was not launched on a Minuteman but on a a new rocket on its first flight, Minotaur 4. This rocket is built from spare parts of other rockets.

· http://www.spacenews.com/military/042610darpa-loses-contact-with-hypersonic-vehicle.html

0230 GMT May 9, 2010

· US and Pakistan Redux before the Times Squares bomber, US was at least trying to understand Pakistan's argument against attacking north Waziristan. The argument was fallacious if you look at Pakistan through US eyes, but it made a lot of sense if you look at Pakistan through Pakistani eyes.

· Pakistanis argued that opening yet another front against the Taliban was going to destroy the precarious peace attained in the North West Frontier. Between you, us, and the wall, there is no precarious peace, the Taliban are striking back or laying low till the right time, they haven't been defeated or intimidated. Let's ignore that so avoid complicating the discussion.

· Privately, the Pakistanis were quite honest about their refusal to go into North Waziristan. Why should Pakistan destroy the good Taliban, who are an integral part of Pakistani foreign/military policy? What the Pakistanis could have added, privately, is that there was NO bad Taliban before the US forced Pakistan to take on the dual-based fighters in Afghanistan-Pakistan. Pakistan was stable, the war was going well, and the US would be defeated soon. US would leave, Pakistan would have gotten a couple ten billion in aid and payments of various kinds etc etc.

· So the Pakistanis can - and do - give wounded looks to the Americans they trust, saying "You messed us up by throwing us out of Afghanistan, we recovered to take back Afghanistan, then you forced us to attack our own instruments of war, the Taliban, and now everything is in a right royal mess. You're going to leave, we'll be bearing the brunt of this for decades. Friends like that we don't need."

· After a few more drinks, the Pakistanis may even tell you, their American best buddy: "And what is Afghanistan to you anyway? It's everything to us and nothing to you. We had nothing to do with that idiot OBL, we don't know where he is, and if our idiot Dr, AQ Khan was trying to sell N-weapons to the AQ, you know he didn't have access to the weapons and in any case every time he has cheated the foreign customer. Is that any reason to come ruin our lives?"

· There is considerable justice to the Pakistani tale of sorrow, and frankly, going into Afghanistan was not one of the smartest things the US has done. But - here's the thing - when the Americans lose it, they really lose it, and they are so powerful they can ruin your day if they have it in for you. There is neither logic nor fairness when they are angry. For example, many an Indian has asked: "AQ attacked you, so you invade and occupy another country, Pakistan attacks us, and you insist on "restraint" ". Your American friend, if he is honest with you, will say with a shrug, "so you now know not to get us angry" - if he is honest. He might even say: "God is on the side of the Big Battalions." He might even say: "Fairness grows out of the barrel of a cruise missile launcher."

· Okay. So now because of one little would-be bomber, US has ordered Pakistan to attack North Waziristan. It has come as a complete surprise to the US that it has been bashing heck out of the Taliban for almost-9 years and the Taliban have finally decided to hit back. The bomber told the people arresting him: "what took you so long?", and frankly, if the bomber had been in Editor's custody, that's the first question Editor would have asked him.

· Now, frankly, it is not up to Editor to tell US what it should do or not. He thinks too much like the Americans, and has a sincere belief that force is the solution to all problems, and if the US didn't win in Korea, Indochina and Afghanistan, it's not that force has limits, it's that the US didn't apply force properly and in sufficient quantity. (Editor is not being sarcastic: in his American incarnation he honestly believes that, and in all three cases he believes America was done in by an effete elite that needs to be eliminated.)

· Suppose Pakistan does make an all-out effort. All that's going to happen is that Pakistan will be destabilized further, terrorists coming out of Pakistan will multiply, Afghanistan will be riven by internal conflict fed by external actors, and the whole darn bucket load of stinking fish guts is going to come on India's head while the Americans go off to find someone else's happiness to ruin.

· Luckily for Pakistan, it is not going to make an all-out effort, regardless of what the US says, any more than they've made an all-out effort these almost-9 years past. The Pakistanis are experts at taking the US for a ride, this will continue. Good luck, everyone.

· BTW, the Pakistanis already know the US answer to their plea: "We don't have any troops to do an operation in North Waziristan," because our information is US has already given the answer. Paraphrased it is: "And you have 50,000 troops to do a show-and-tell on India's border?" That's the big exercise Pakistan is ending. As for the Pakistan plea: "We can't shift more troops from the India front", the US has already given that answer too: "We've guaranteed India will not attack, stop making excuses. And in any case the eight divisions you have in the Frontier are all primarily tasked to the India border. You've severely weakened your defenses against India; has India attacked?"

0230 GMT May 8, 2010

· UK Conservatives win as expected and also as expected, fall short of a majority. With their traditional allies among the other parties, they can add nine seats to their 306 for a total of 315, still short. So they are in talks with the Liberal Democrats, who did not do as well as expected but still have 57 seats. Serious policy differences between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats need resolution before a coalition can be announced.

· The Liberals will also talk to Labor, which has 258 seats. But even a combined Labor-traditional allies-Liberal combination falls short of a majority.

· Kashmir firefight leaves five Pakistani militants and two Indian soldiers dead. This kind of skirmish, even if repeated dozens of times, will not provoke Indian retaliation, as the Indians take such encounters as routine. To provoke India, a major terrorist attack, likely outside Kashmir, would have to take place.

· In Editor's opinion, the Indian position is absurd and invites a non-stop series of attacks against India, year after year. The cost to Pakistan is likely one thousandth that India incurs. There is no geopolitical cost, Moreover, by ostensibly backing "independence" for Kashmiris, Pakistan gets the cachet of supporting "freedom fighters". Of course, not only does Pakistan now allow its Kashmiris to raise their voice for independence, it has also detached the entire Northern Areas from Kashmir and put them under direct rule. Pakistan also gets away with claiming that Kashmir is a Muslim majority area. Actually, there are four parts to the former princely state of Kashmir: Jammu, Hindu majority; Kashmir, Muslim majority - most Hindus have been ethnically cleansed; Ladakh, Shia Muslim and Buddhist, with no love for Kashmir, and the Northern Areas that don't want to be with anybody. So Pakistan cannot speak for the whole province, and it's been a big mystery to the Editor why the Indians let Pakistan get away with it.

· Imagine that the US, for 25 years, has been under continuous infiltration attack along a major border. Every year hundreds of infiltrators enter, and the US fights a never-ending series of encounters with the infiltrators. Imagine that three times in the last 60 years the nation beyond the border has invaded US territory, and has had to be pushed out.

· Does anyone think the US would simply let this situation continue? Of course not. But India does, and it should not be surprised no one, including the US, takes India seriously.

· As Editor has warned, the situation will change as the generations that have been born in a dynamic, rapidly economically expanding India take charge. We don't see it happening in 10 years, because the post-independence generation, which is morally effete, will still be ruling. Twenty years down the line, things will be different.

· British sniper claims world record for killing two Taliban at a range of over 2500-meters during last year's fighting in Helmand. He says the weather conditions were perfect. During his 6-month tour he was credited with 12 more kills. He survived a bullet through his helmet and a roadside explosion that broke both arms. He recovered and was able to return to his job.

· It is a sad reality of combat that as a generalization that a small percentage of combatants do most of the killing. These are the wolves. The rest of the combatants, on either side, are merely sheep for slaughter. As far as Editor knows, you cannot identify wolves before a war starts. There would seem to be common characteristics: superb physical reflexes, an ability to tune out and remain unaffected by the chaos and brutality of war, and an absolute conviction that they are destined to win and their opponents lose.

0230 GMT May 7, 2010

· UK Elections: Conservatives may emerge 21 seats short of a majority according to exit polls. With one-fifth of seats counted: Labor 52 seats, Conservatives 38, Liberal Democrats 5; others 15. (0230 GMT)

· http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/election2010/results/ for up-to-date results.

· Finally an Israeli official states the obvious Jerusalem Post says: "Israeli-Palestinian negotiations are doomed to hit a brick wall because no Palestinian leader will accept anything less than what Yasser Arafat rejected at Camp David 10 years ago, and no Jewish prime minister will offer anything more, Vice Premier and Regional Development Minister Silvan Shalom said."

· Of course, after this burst of truth-telling, the official started the usual blah about talks are good and so on. Sheer nonsense, as everyone knows. To pretend the issue can be resolved by talking is to delay facing the inevitable: Israel and Palestine cannot co-exist in the same place.

· UK drillship strikes oil in Falkland This is the same drillship Argentina was objecting to and which sparked a mini-crisis earlier this year after UK said drilling would continue, whether or not Argentina was happy. The first well came up dry; the ship shifted position, and has struck a potential 200-million barrels of oil at a depths of 2740-meters. The ship is to drill four more wells.

· Greek parliament votes for financial reform, but Wall Street still falls 350-points That's without the technical glitch (whatever that means) that caused the Dow to drop nearly 1000 points before it picked up 700 points by closing.

· The market is said to be reacting to the assumption (reasonable) that the Greek crisis is not over, despite the Parliament vote, and Portugal is next on the debt collapse list.

· Orbat.com does have to note, in fairness, that it was not your average Greek Joe or Jane living beyond their means that created this crisis. Average pay is $1000/month. So, for example, the two month bonus that government employees receive every year is not some obscene perk, its a necessity to make ends meet.

· Editor's solution to these multiple financial crises: have no money, so it cannot be lost.

· Russian destroyer frees hijacked tanker and captures the pirates. One pirate was killed when Russian forces boarded the tanker. They were able to conduct this action because the all-Russian crew managed to switch off the engines and lock themselves into a safe space after being boarded, and because the Russian destroyer was within a day's sailing distance. Congratulations for a job well done to the Russian Navy. The pirates are enroute to Moscow for trial - and congratulations to Russia for that too.

· Meanwhile, a Swedish MR aircraft and a French destroyer cooperated to capture 12 pirates. Expect pirates to be issued apologies, bunny slippers, and blue blankies before being put ashore in Somalia.

· ROK Corvette Korea Times says explosive residue has been recovered from the sunk (and subsequently reraised) Navy corvette. It is being analyzed to determine its source. Though it seems all but certain DPRK sank the corvette, ROK is officially proceeding step-by-step. presumably to build an irrefutable case.

· OK, so ROK builds its irrefutable case. What then? Orbat.com bets 9-1 that nothing happens. No one wants to confront the psychotic DPRK regime. Why don't the US-ROK simply take-down DPRK and end this nonsense once and for all? ROK doesn't want to risk serious casualties, and more to the point, it doesn't want forcible reunion of the divided country because it doesn't want to pay the cost of absorbing the North Korean people.

· Korea Times says GDP per capita may not reach $30,000 till 2015. Oh Woe. Come on, ROK: you've done astonishingly well in the last 55 years.

0230 GMT May 6, 2010

· US DOD survey on government support in Helmand & Kandahar provinces Long War Journal says: "The Department of Defense's survey paints a grim picture of public support for the government in the south. In Kandahar and Helmand, the two provinces considered to be the key to the Taliban's power in the south, the majority is considered to be ambivalent toward the Afghan government and the Coalition, or sympathetic to or supportive of the Taliban.

· Of the 11 of Helmand's 13 districts assessed, eight of the districts are considered neutral, one is sympathetic to the Taliban, and two support the Taliban. Of the 11 of Kandahar's 13 districts assessed, one district (Kandahar City) supported the government, three districts are considered neutral, six are sympathetic to the Taliban, and one supports the Taliban."

· Please remember, this is a US DOD survey, not an independent survey.

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/05/taliban_assault_team.php#ixzz0n6VRQhT3

· US finally seriously examining Pakistan-terror nexus says Times of India. Actually not. Many Indians think Pakistan is hoodwinking the US over the former's role in terror. They get very angry Americans can be so foolish.

· But US has from the start understood what's going on. The problem, we've said repeatedly, is that US does not see any option except to continue dealing with Pakistan. Once that decision has been taken, US has to go kissy-kissy-face with Pakistan for the public's benefit.

· Indeed, Editor can easily build a case from an American viewpoint saying the discovery of this latest terrorist can be used to build a stronger case US should stay engaged with Pakistan. For example, "if we didn't have Pakistani cooperation on this man, things would be a lot worse."

· That's why we say this new terrorism case will not change the US stance on Pakistan. Sorry About That.

· http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/NY-bomb-plot-raises-questions-about-Pak-military-terror-nexus/articleshow/5895172.cms

· Read London Times for background on the terrorists training and background.

· Gulf of Mexico Rig Blowout BP has plugged the smallest of three leaks, but this doesn't change the amount of oil escaping.

· Meanwhile, a ship with the first well cap has set out. The process of placing it could take several days and might not work. If it does, a second well cap structure is being readied for the second rupture.

· Sea is expected to keep oil from the Louisiana Coast for three more days, even as the oil approaches within 3-km of shore.

· Letter from Reader Martin Berger I was horrified to learn that your addiction to Klondike bars costs you $1.53 per indulgence. I live on Martha's Vineyard which is not exactly a low cost destination but our local grocery store sells a box of 6 for $4.49 and this winter even had a "special" at 2 boxes (i.e. 12 bars) for $5.00. In the interests of indulgence and economy you might consider relocating.

· We almost set off for Martha's Vineyard until sense hit. If we were to buy Klondike bars by the half-dozen and dozen, Editor would eat them all in a day or two. Too bad. 75-cents instead of $1.53 for a Klondike bar sounds like the place to be.

0230 GMT May 5, 2010

· Indians adopt American jargon "The 'Yodha Shakti' wargames in the blistering heat of Thar Desert, with temperatures touching 50 degrees celsius, for instance, are centred around swift offensive manoeuvres by "mission-oriented battle-groups" with airborne forces and lethal firepower "to rapidly dominate the entire spectrum of battlespace". " That is a quote from the Times of India. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Pak-wargames-to-blunt-Indias-strategy/articleshow/5891362.cms

· If words could kill, India has already won the next war with Pakistan. Whoever came up with this jargon need to be sent to the Thar desert themselves, and made to run laps with rifles held high above their heads. Then they should be made to write: "I will not use stupid jargon" one thousand times each.

· Please to explain what is a "mission-oriented battle-group"? A battle-group by definition is mission-oriented: you take units from formations as you need to form a battle-group tailored to the mission.

· "Rapidly dominate the entire spectrum of battlespace?" How about the empty battlespace between the ears of the Jargoneers? Every cadet knows from his first lecture about the importance of time on the battlefield. Every army /armed force tries to act as quickly as possible. Previous to this new jargon, military leaders did not stop their offensives at 2 PM for a beer lunch followed by naps, followed by tea and a few rounds of golf before resuming operations.

· This reminds of General K. Sundarji, a brilliant Indian Army Chief of Staff with little command or battle experience (which he readily and self-deprecatingly admitted). He loved new concepts. In the middle of a major 1986 exercise simulating a high-speed armor offensive against Pakistan, he announced to the Indian press that India had an airmobile division. Press was highly impressed. After the exercise it occurred to someone to ask, on behalf of the general, the US Military Attache's office for a TOE of an airmobile division.

· The term "Cold Start" is itself is pointless jargon. There is no such thing. Never has been. Never will be. You cannot maintain 100% readiness for any except a few select units. You always need warning time. Sure you can fool the other person or he can misread your moves. Pakistan in Kargil; 1999. Egyptian crossing of the Suez 1973. Indian crossing of the international frontier 1965. Barbarossa, 1941. But that's quite different from a Cold Start. In all four cases months of preparation was needed, but the other side misassessed the likelihood of war.

· In any case, while India has been talking Cold Start, the Pakistanis have countered Indian doctrine. Time to return to the drawing boards, people. Why not start with a simple vow: "I will not count on gimmicks to defeat the enemy". And a second vow: "I understand there are no short cuts in war."

· And since the Indians are ah so veddy American these days, no better place to start, people, than consulting your great pals, the Americans. Talk to them about how they prepared for Gulf I, Kosovo, Gulf II, and Afghanistan.

· In theory, the Indian Army takes 10-days to mobilize (pre-Cold Start) and Pakistan takes 3-days. That's because India is a much bigger country than Pakistan, and many of its formations are far from the border for a bunch of reasons we won't bore you with. So many of India's strike and reserve (reserve in the sense of held in reserve, all divisions are active duty) take time to arrive at the border.

· In 2001-02 the full concentration took 30-days. Not bad as far as Editor is concerned. Indian Army decided this was pointless because by the time the Indians were ready to go, the Pakistanis were also fully mobilized. Thus Cold Start.

· But Cold Start requires 4-days of mobilization, and that is in reality very, very fast if you're talking an offensive. So Pakistan has cut its mobilization time too. (We're waiting information on just how much Pakistan's mobilization time has been reduced.) In any case, one of its strike corps sits right on the border (I Corps) and the other (II Corps) can send units forward within 24-hours and be fully mobilized within - say 96-120 hours. Pakistan was short of units to cover the desert sector in case of a surprise attack: its reserves were at Karachi, Quetta and so on. So it has for a decade been assiduously working on changing this.

· The whole problem is that no one, for no reason, attacks out of the blue. There has to be a provocation. Since the Pakistanis will be the ones causing a provocation, don't the Indians think that next time they will be fully prepared before the provocation, unlike 2001-2002 when they were surprised at India's mobilization following the attack on the Indian Parliament?

· Further, as we've said many times, the idea of Cold Start borrows - whether the Indians know this or not - from Soviet offensive doctrine as refined for Central Europe in the 1970s and 1980s. Attack with minimum warning time (the refinement), and attack across multiple axes so that the enemy does not know which are the real axes, so the enemy sends in his reserves to counter Axis A, only to find Axis B is the real one.

· Okay, people, a few reality checks. The Soviets could do this - as they did very well in the latter stages of World War II - because they had a whacking great superiority in divisions and in the strength of their divisions. Like five-to-one, often more. Where does the Indian Army envisage this kind of superiority vis-a-vis Pakistan?

· Second, the Soviets used a tactic the Indian Army cannot duplicate - or any army. They reinforced only success. The division that was failing had its assets taken away to reinforce the one that was succeeding, and too heck with the failing division, no one cared if they got overrun and finished off because after it all evened out, the Soviets would be deep inside enemy territory with the axes that succeeded.

· Moreover, the Soviets mechanized their entire army so that it could advance rapidly. Only one-third of India's plains forces are mechanized, and a lot of that is with the strike reserves.

· So India's idea was ( we say was because Editor pronounces Cold Start - well, Cold as in Dead) was force Pakistan to commit its strike reserves against the 8 Cold start axes of thrust, and then make the real offensive with India's three strike corps, which Pakistan would have nothing to counter with.

· Frankly, we always thought that a concept for losers, but anyway. So what Pakistan did, despite is lack of resources, was to create armored/mechanized reserves for its four holding corps. They'll take care of the Indian axes of advance, still keeping their strike corps in reserve.

· In other words, its back to the status quo ante. Well, actually no, because now Pakistan has (raised or under raising) four more divisions and India has to counter that. So its worse than status quo ante.

· Here's our advice to the Indians - read what Indian Field Manekshaw told Mrs. Indira Gandhi when she wanted a lightning strike against East Pakistan. For your convenience, the quote is included in a letter written to us. There are no short cuts. The only way a war with Pakistan can be won is by the old-fashioned knock-down/drag-out strategy. It could take as little as 30-days, but it would be foolish to plan for less than 90-days.

· Letter from Reader Faisel Khan (Professor Khan is American, by the way, so don't think he is a Pakistani apologist.)

· I was going to write a much longer rebuttal to your ‘rant’ but, alas, work beckons. So I’ll just remind you that FM Manekshaw, when criticized for the extremely slow pace of IA military preparations and even basic troop movement, pointed out that he commanded the IA and not the Wehrmacht. I will admit that its been decades since I have really interested myself in military issues but it seems to me that unless the IA has truly radically transformed itself in the past two decades, Cold Start is wishful thinking in the extreme. Unless the IA comes up with a Napoleon that is going to sack generals by the dozen and kick many, many posteriors into action, the British Indian Army attitude towards military matters will continue on. British patterned armies are, it seems, constitutionally incapable of adopting a German/Israeli attitude towards military issues. I am specifically referring to the inability to move speedily under any circumstances.

· I am second to none in my respect for the British (and the Indian and Pakistani armies) regimental system but at anything above the battalion level, neither army has exactly distinguished itself. The only time the Indians has fought anyone other than Pakistan (China and the LTTE), it has had its head handed to it on a platter. So, bring on Cold Start and I’ll keep on LMAO, with all due respect. Remember the absolute hash the Soviets made of mobilizing to invade Poland at the height of Solidarity? I doubt the IA will do much better.

0230 GMT May 4, 2010

· US N-stockpile at 5130 warheads with several thousand more awaiting dismantling. This is the first time the US has given an official figure. Please remember the US is under no compulsion to be truthful; to us the figure doesn't mean much.

· Some worry after the declaration people are going to start saying: you have 5000+ and you're objecting to Iran getting two? " - or 3 or four or whatever. But so what? They've been saying that anyway.

· Greece Someone who must have blind and mistaken the Editor for an economist asked him: "What is the point of lending Greece $150-billion when its already bust and cant pay it's existing debt?" Sure beats us. We never understood hi-fi anyway - that's high-finance.

· We suppose that $150-billion will refinance Greece's debt, but other people are saying the terms are tough, and that the average Greek makes less than $1500/month, and cannot take much austerity. The bailout requires very deep cuts in public spending, and there is no chance Greece can pay back the money. Further, they say that everyone knows this and the bailout is just another sham drama enacted for political reasons.

· Well, no sense asking us. Editor has his own crisis. Every Saturday, as his weekly treat, he buys a $1.09 Giant SuperMarket ice cream bar. The other Saturday, twice in a row, he bought a Klondike bar because they taste a lot better. But they're $1.53. Editor is still chastising himself for his egregious spending. We suggest the next person who wants his opinion on international finance should talk about something realistic, like the price of ice cream bars.

· Oh yes: we did tell the gentleman Greece, Spain, Portugal should be kicked out of Eurozone for their own good. We're not going to let anyone down who asks Editor about an opinion.

· So, you'll ask disbelieving, if we asked you "What do women want?" a question Freud himself unable to answer even though men have asked it for thousands of years, you would dare to give us an answer?

· Of course, silly. Anyone knows what is the answer to the question "What do women want?". They want everything, all at the same time. There you go - and we aren't even charging you for this.

· Third Pakistan strike corps? Reader Avik B. tells us about claims making the rounds of the blogs that Pakistan is to set up a third strike corps, either with 480 T-84 Ukraine or with US tanks if the US agrees. Dr. Ayesha Siddiqui, a Pakistani academic and defense expert, says when General Kayani visited Washington last month, he presented a 56-page list of military equipment, including equipment for a third strike corps. US has no problems with selling reconditioned M-113s and M-109s, but we wonder if US will okay transfer of M-1s because the Indians would get very upset over that. The Ukraine tank deal sounds more probable to us.

· BP Drilling Disaster Unless one the several robot submersibles working to try and close a valve in the broken pipe succeeds, seems to us the best chance of a temporary solution is the proposal to drop a box over the leak. The 70-ton concrete and metal box has a pipe at the top which will bring the oil to be pumped into a barge's tanks. This move will take about a week, assuming all goes well.

· Wall Street Journal says BP has begun drilling a relief well and will start on a second shortly. While this is best permanent solution, it will take ~3-months or more.

· WSJ also says there are fears the well is leaking 100,000-bbl/day, not the 5,000-bbl/day currently given out. That would make it very serious.

· We erred in saying the BP well was 5000-meters deep. It is 5,000-feet deep.

· UK General Election May 6th. Keep tuned: an exciting three way race.

0230 GMT May 3, 2010

· Pakistan Taliban and attempted Times Square bombing Our sole comment is to wonder why it took the Pakistan Taliban so long to retaliate against the US. We suspect US domestic security may be a lot better than some people might be inclined to think. The seeming lack of sophistication of the bomb is irrelevant; IEDs don't have to be sophisticated. What's more interesting is that the trigger did not work - that's the lack of sophistication.

· Indian spy On the one hand the recently uncovered Indian spy in the Islamabad embassy has argued in court she was a low-ranking staffer, so what access to intelligence would she have. On the other, according to senior Indian journalist M.J. Akbar, she told the arresting officers what took them so long to uncover her.

· In India, this business of the worth of the information is never a factor in sentencing. The fact that information stamped secret or whatever is passed is enough. Doesn't matter if it is a piece of paper for procuring toilet paper. Once it says "secret", it's secret, and the Indian judge will not presume to second-guess the government on the seriousness or otherwise of the information.

· Decades ago counsel for an accused Indian spy asked if I would testify that the information was freely available. But after I explained the above point and said it wouldn't do any good no matter what I said or how many open sources I showed to prove the information was of no importance, counsel dropped that line of defense.

· Nonetheless, there are two problem with the spy's argument. First, its the staffers who actually have access to a great deal of information if they are inclined to acquire it. A loose comparison is that the school secretary knows more than anyone else, including the principal, about what's going on in the school. Sure, officers are required to maintain tight security over their papers etc. In reality people are never as careful as they should be. This officer was not a secretary, but we're just trying to make a general point. Further, one thing she's accused of is passing on the names of undercover Indian agents to Pakistan. It doesn't take long for anyone working in an embassy to figure out who are the undercover people. Don't want to get further into this.

· Second, the investigators are working on the idea - and claim to have results - that the spy was an intermediary between spies in India and her Pakistani case officer.

· Interestingly, on the case the Editor was consulted, some rather sensitive information had been passed to the "foreign power". Even yours truly, who tends to pooh pooh stuff held secret, had to admit that. Of course, that's not the evidence the government introduced in court, even though the hearings were closed. The stuff they brought was all harmless - but was nonetheless stamped secret. I always had to explain to people in India, especially fellow Indians, that the Indian government was nowhere near as incompetent as people assumed. This spy lady will have plenty of time to ponder on that.

· Israeli Iron Dome Jerusalem Post says that two batteries of this system, intended to defend against short-range rockets and artillery/mortar shells, have been delivered to the Israeli Air Force. The Air Force now wants a dozen more - to be funded by Uncle Sam. No surprise here and no beef either; Israel is important to the US and provides several billion dollars worth of military aid annually.

· We'd appreciate if any of our weapons-minded readers would take a look at Iron Dome and tell us how much of the system is Israeli and how much US. Israel claims stuff as its own, but the US plays a much bigger part in RDTE than one would imagine. The Israeli Arrow, for example, is really the Boeing-Israeli Arrow and so on. We have no beef about that either, except we did get annoyed when Israeli went around claiming Arrow was much better than Patriot for ABM. First, Arrow is as much American as Israeli; second its a completely different type of system. If you're going to compare, compare Arrow to Standard 3,

· We are told US deployed its own type of Iron Dome some time ago in Iraq. Such systems are excellent for defending fixed points such as bases and cities in an era of asymmetrical warfare.

· But nonetheless we are annoyed at a Jerusalem Post quote from an Israeli official as to why the US should fund more batteries: "The logic from an American point of view is that it is better to help Israel feel protected and defend its cities than it is for Israel to be under attack and have to launch another operation in Gaza to protect itself.” Now, child, behave yourself. Its your logic; don't presume to tell your elders what is logical or not when you're asking for money. This same logic is used by Israel all the time to get stuff from the US. Sometimes the US agrees, and sometimes it doesn't. It's the "you better stop me before I hurt myself" type of logic. Israel may one day threaten to invade Gaza and find the US saying: "Carry on, have yourselves a blast." There are limits to blackmail. Further, it's bad manners when asking for money to say: "Uncle, it's really in your interest to give it to me."

· http://www.jpost.com/Israel/Article.aspx?id=174451

0230 GMT May 2, 2010

· Mogadishu bombings So usually its the Islamic extremists blowing up people. Yesterday two bomb attacks targeted the top military leader of Somalia's Shabab, wounding him and killing 40 supporters. "Foreign companies" are blamed. Bit odd. Which foreign company wants to do business in Somalia? More likely Shabab opponents, Hizbul Islam, are responsible, as Bill Roggio discusses in http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/05/top_shabaab_commande.php

· Meanwhile, a Somali newspaper www.garoweonline.com says Shabab continues its advance into Central Somalia and has taken over the pirate town of Haradare. The pirates have fled with their hostages and ships to a town 100-km farther north.

· Gulf of Mexico oil rig blowout One has to laugh at the absurdity of the situation. US produces less than a third of the oil it consumes. True, much of the imports come from the Western Hemisphere. But US does import oil from unstable regions like the Mideast and Africa. Energy independence needs to be a top priority for US national security.

· But no sooner did President Obama act by permitting an expansion of offshore drilling, than Boom! a rig blows up and now threatens to cause a worse ecological disaster than the Exxon Valdez. For all its assurances before it was permitted to drill under previous policy, BP has proved spectacularly unable to cap the flow. Oil reached the Gulf Coast yesterday. This disaster is likely to provide the best fund-raising opportunity for ecological groups in the first years of the 21st Century.

· Bye-bye expansion of off-shore drilling, for a few years, at least.

· Meanwhile, two minor pieces of good news. The US Air Force has withdrawn its opposition to the largest proposed wind farm in the world. And the Cape Cod wind project has been cleared despite energetic opposition from the tony residents of the area. It will spoil their view, they say. How come they are not bothered about West Virginia, where mountain-top removal does more than just spoil the local people's view?

· Taken together, Cape Cod and Shepherd's Flat, Oregon, and Cape Cod account for just something over a gigawatt, a single large coal-fired plant. It isn't much, but every bit helps.

· Of course, this being America don't expect the wind farms to be working anytime soon. The Cape Cod project has been frozen for 10 years, and more lawsuits are expected. Lawsuits are surely on the way for Shepherd's Flat.

· Editor's rant yesterday elicited exactly 2 responses, which one supposes is better than none.

· Reader and former Orbat.com contributor Xinhui wanted us to tone down the nationalistic rhetoric as that gets no respect. Actually, Editor warned that retaliation against Pakistan leading to escalation will make matters worse. Editor warned against the coming tide of nationalism, which he expects to be powerful and proactive, as India grows economically stronger and more confident.

· Reader Bhali wrote: "A dire and apocalyptic prediction. I think, though that given how content the dopey elephant is as it plods on to better pastures, the looneys will have to do something really devastating and horrible on a consistent relentless basis to make the elephant mad enough to go on a rampage. Also the deeply cautious nature of the flag officers will always be a drag on any political decision unless they can be convinced of a realistic chance of a positive endgame. And in your analysis there is nothing good that will come of engaging in massive retaliation. Seems like sucking it up and focusing on preemptive surgical ops, and periodic limited supporting ground ops would be the only way to keep this monster at bay. I agree there is no long term solution. Containment, preemption seems the only way. And Pakistan Army will also limit engagements just so it can survive, no?"

· The problem with limited action is that it requires the other party to accept the game. But Pakistan Army cannot passively sit back after India retaliates for the next major terrorist provocation. It will have to counter, and that will lead to full scale war. We agree with Reader Bhali that such a strong reaction on India's part is unlikely at this time. After all, it's only eleven years ago that Pakistan actually invaded India (Kargil 1999) and India's retaliation was so limp-wristed that it would not cross the Kashmir Line of Control even for purposes of maneuver as it took back its losses. Even more limp-wristed was India's reaction to the Bombay 2008 attack. India did nothing.

· But India tomorrow will be a different country than it is today. The younger generation - Editor from his advanced age must regard anyone younger than 50 as the younger generation. These Indians are quite different. A small harbinger is the Army Chief's statement earlier this year that India could fight a conventional war with Pakistan beneath a nuclear under hang.

· This statement is so portentous that it has to represent official policy - or at least official statements on the debate toward a new policy. Ten years ago no Indian official, leave alone an Army Chief, would have said something so clearly saying that's Pakistan N-weapons were not a factor in Indian planning.

· The American ambassador to Pakistan ridiculed the statement - another bit of unusual behavior, because criticizing a neighbor of your accredited state is an absolute no-no. But unfortunately, the ambassador has not the slightest understand of how India functions or how it is changing. She wants to believe it is ridiculous because her country's interest lies in India being deterred by Pakistan N-weapons.

· Had the learned Ambassador bothered to learn about India, she would have known that after the 2001-02 non-war, India completed reformulated its defense strategy and for the first time explicitly embraced a doctrine of the conventional first strike - regardless of Pakistan's N-weapons. She has only to read up on Cold Start. True, India has done little to implement it. That is an indication of how India has traditionally worked: Talk Talk, You Worry Me To Death. Editor's point is that this will change. India will start acting instead of talking and posturing.

0230 GMT May 1, 2010

· Prominent Taliban supporter killed - by the Taliban The man in question is a former Pakistan Air Force officer who joined the ISI and was involved in the Taliban take-over of Afghanistan. He retained his contacts, and was much respected by the Taliban - the Afghan Taliban, that is. Some time ago he was kidnapped by the Taliban and held for the demand that three leading Taliban persons in Pakistan custody be released.

· We, along with others, thought this to be a ruse. Why would they kidnap and threaten a man who is their close associate and friend? This had to be an attempt by the Taliban to pull a fast one on the US; presumably the Pakistan government would have "exchanged" him for the the three leaders and then turned to the US saying it had no choice.'

· But the man has turned up dead, and now it turns out the Punjab Taliban did him in. He was a negotiator in the Lahore Red Mosque siege, and the Punjab Taliban regarded him as a traitor. After the seize, the Punjabi terrorist groups split, with some members choosing to remain with the Pakistan state, and others who went on to fight the state.

· What this was doing in tribal territory his own except for another Taliban supporter is unknown. The speculation is the Pakistan Government sent him to negotiate with the Punjab Taliban. He would have had to volunteer, presumably, and things went wrong.

· So what does all this mean? As usual with these things, maybe nothing. But it could mean the Punjab Taliban has hardened its anti-government position. If it has, then good luck to everyone, because Pakistan already has enough troubles.

· From India's viewpoint, this is one more piece in helping confirm rumors that the Taliban will turn their attention to Kashmir. A few killings have been reported in Pakistan Kashmir. Many Indians doubt, or did doubt, that the Taliban would turn on India. But see, that's the Afghan Taliban, with whom India keeps contact - just as the US does. The Punjabi Taliban are another matter.

· We've said before that when the Taliban assault against Kashmir comes, the Taliban will find an Indian Army that is fully ready for them. It will not be a decades long ad hoc CI as was the case with the 1985-2005 insurgency.

· The danger here is that if the Taliban push India too much, India will have to retaliate. President Obama has little personal credibility with the Indians unlike Mr. Bush, and after repeatedly having restrained themselves at Mr. Bush's request, the Indians will be in no mood to listen to Mr. Obama.

· So why is Editor, the last known ultra-hawk on Pakistan, worried that a war will result? Isn't that what he's advocated for 40 years?

· Well, yes and no. Editor has advocated a carefully thought out and carefully executed war that will result in bringing Pakistan Kashmir, West Punjab, and Sindh back into the Union of India. This is not the same thing as a half-baked response born of anger, which we are likely to see if India is sufficiently goaded. The metaphor of India as an elephant is appropriate: India plods along peacefully, shrugging off the pinpricks and attacks of insects and small fry. But once an elephant goes mad, well, that is not a good thing for anyone, including the elephant.

· People who know Editor will think he has gone mad after 20-years in the American wilderness. Truthfully, he does feel a bit crazy at times. But he is being sober when he says right now the only thing that may be standing between India and a completely broken Pakistan state, with infinite possibilities for very bad things happening to both India and Pakistan, is the Pakistan Army.

· And the last thing India needs right now is to weaken the Pakistan Army, which is going to happen if India retaliates against Pakistan state and non-state actors attacking India.

· Back to the last-known ultra-hawk on Pakistan. Editor should clarify he is the last of the immediate post-independence generation. But there is a new generation of Indian ultra-hawks coming up. Unlike the editor, who was lonely voice calling in the wilderness - gosh, Editor is so poetic, this new generation is emerging in great numbers - millions, perhaps tens of millions. Editor was tolerated by the Indian establishment because the Indian establishment used to tolerate an immense amount of dissent. He had no following, and his calls for a war to reunite the subcontinent or face the destruction of India was considered amusing - among Editor's supporters, and of no consequence among his detractors. Every time he called the establishment traitors, poltroons, corrupt this and thats because the Government wouldn't go to war, he was ignored (except once, which is the reason he's here in America and not back in America, but that's another story). In other words, Editor was a complete non-entity in the circles that matter.

· But this new lot, now in their 20s-50s, has the power of numbers. They will come to power when Editor has gone to his heavenly reward (okay, we exaggerate - down to the Hot Place), but perhaps someone will remember that the Editor predicted their rise.

· So shouldn't Editor be delighted that this will happen? Not one bit.

· You see, Editor is among the last of the generation who does not, despite all the wars, regard Pakistanis as enemies. He regards them as wayward brethren, led astray by their political leaders - and India's - into accepting Partition when the evidence of millennia says an India that does not control the Northwest will have no security. This is not some emotional attachment to the place of his birth, because frankly he was a child and has no memory of it. Its simply a cold calculation of the national security calculus.

· But: and this is the point here - the new generation does regard Pakistanis as enemies. The Indo-Pakistan wars were relatively clean matters of honor between brothers. But the terrors and insurgencies Pakistan has unleashed on India are dirty, brutal, and horrific. The 20-50s have grown up in a completely different environment. On an abstract level, of course these young Indians know the people of Pakistan are not their enemies, that they are victims of a six-decade old military-feudal-political nexus that has pillaged Pakistan and the people can go hang.

· At the same time, this new generation does not care. If 10- to 50-million Pakistanis have to die to end the Pakistan problem, they have no problems with that. Increasingly, they want Pakistan gone, and how it is made to be gone is not something they are interested in.

· This growing up generation (or generations) does not accept the classic Indian muddle-on-regardless way of life that characteristics India. They want things done, and they want them done right. Many have embraced the "can do" philosophy of America. To them, Pakistan is a cancer, and how do you deal with a cancer? You don't negotiate with a cancer. You kill it.

· So is Editor saying 10-years from now or 20-years from now India is going to go for an all-out war that could even involve N-weapons? Well, yes and no. The no part is the date: Editor cannot say when this will happen. The yes part is, it will happen, and if nuclear release has to be ordered, the new generation will order it.

· Before everyone starts having a fit, please realize the Indian economy is at least six times if not more bigger than Pakistan's. India has at least six times more people. India's conventional superiority is so great that it does not need to consider any nuclear strike.

· But see - that's the Editor talking. The new generation is not going to sit around after attacking Pakistan, and wait for Pakistan to make the first N-move, say a few warheads aimed at an Indian strike corps inside Pakistan. (That's not going to stop the strike corps, but we digress.) It will take as a starting assumption that India must set the parameters for any potential N-use that results from an Indian attack on Pakistan. In other words, if the strategists say India will have to begin the offensive with a Pakistan-wide preemptive strike, the new generation will do what it has to do.

· We're not worried about Pakistani retaliation, and we wont here discuss why not. What we're concerned is that millions of innocent Pakistanis could die. More than that, we're worried that the new lot will NOT want to absorb Pakistan. They will destroy the country, and sow the land with salt. They will make sure it is not a threat for 50-years, or 100-years. Aside from a few minor adjustments of the international border, and the recapture of Kashmir, India will leave the rest of Pakistan alone, because it does not want another couple of hundred Muslims to deal with.

· But, see, that's not going to solve India's security problem. As it is we are threatened by Pakistan's growing instability. What's left of Pakistan after the Indians finish with it will be many times more unstable, and many times more dangerous. In other words, war as the new lot will plan and execute will not help India.

· This is not a scenario. It is a prediction, written in shorthand, by an analyst (the Editor) who tends more than most to speak in much compressed phrases.

· Just remember you read it here.

0230 GMT April 30, 2010

· That annoying Pakistan Taliban leader is still not dead says Long War Journal http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/04/a_senior_pakistani_i.php LWJ quotes a senior Pakistan intelligence source. The Defense Department says they don't know if Hakimullah Mesud he is dead or alive, but he is not in control of his forces. Before you take consolation from that statement, LWJ quotes US intelligence as saying there is no evidence he has lost control.

· Meanwhile, BBC says the Taliban have been killing local leaders in Swat. We'd be cautious in drawing the inference that the Taliban have returned, because we were told most never left in the first place. Moreover, assassinations are very difficult to prevent. All we can say is too early to say what's happening.

· Greece crisis not good for US long run economic health says the internationally well-known economics professor Ishawar Prashad on NPR. He says the European crises - Greece, Portugal, Spain, and we could add UK - will drive money to the US because US Treasuries are still seen as the safest possible investments. This will keep US interest rates down, and while that may seem a good thing, it is not. Its the cheap money thing that got us into trouble in the first place, and we need to borrow less.

· BTW, turns out that Greece may need $108-billion to get out of trouble, not the $53-billion people have been discussing. Editor majored in economics, but has to frankly confess he has no real knowledge of real-life economics as opposed to the theory. So he can't explain the discrepancy.

· Musharraf's role in Bhutto murder We are no fans of former President General Musharraf. But there has to be fairness in assessing his role in the murder of Mrs. Bhutto. What we don't understand is this: why is everyone, including the UN, not asking why all of Mrs. Bhutto's security personnel deserted her just before she was shot? The official explanation is that her security chief suddenly turned around and headed for her husband's house, and security, thinking she was with the chief, followed. Instead she was in another vehicle which had an opening in the roof so she could stand up. So why did the security chief push off? Why did he not issue instructions to her detail to stay with her? Why did he approve of her exposing herself to potential assassins in the way she did?

· It is fine for the UN etc to say General Musharraf should have done more for her security. Why? Because the US negotiated her return? Since her return meant the exit gate for General Musharraf, what was the US thinking? Why are people not blaming the US? Government of Pakistan repeatedly told Mrs.. Bhutto she was in danger and to cancel her campaign appearance that day. Mrs. Bhutto's supporters took this as an excuse to cripple her campaigning. Okay, maybe it was a ruse and maybe it was not. But Mrs. Bhutto's lot decided the election meeting would go through. They gambled, and she lost.

· We are not saying that had her security stayed on scene she would have survived: we don't know enough about what happened. But we are saying is it is darned suspicious her security deserted her. We'd be asking her security - and her husband - some hard questions instead of blaming everyone else.

0230 GMT April 29, 2010

Little of interest.

· Bangladesh and Maldives are not drowning says Investor's Business Daily, according to an article sent by Reader Flymike. Bangladesh has said that the IPCC report did not mention that the country's rivers bring a billion-tons-a-year of silt into the Bay of Bengal. There is no evidence of rising sea levels, and even if the sea did rise, the silt depositing would negate it. A Swedish scientist has visited Maldives six times and says there has been no sea rise in fifty years. He says in Tuvulu sea levels have been falling.

· How did we get into the debate anyway? We're not sure, but telling the Editor a major belief system is based on faulty data is like throwing raw meat to starving hounds. Editor cannot help himself, he leaps into action. Its true from time to time Editor puts stuff into the blog that has not the remotest connection to the GWOT, but the climate change debate is likely to continue for decades, and we're thinking maybe we should restrain ourselves. Readers welcome to comment.

· http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article.aspx?id=531579 If you have background on this publications, please let us know.

· Minor spy scandal in India A woman officer of the Indian Foreign Service Cadre B has been arrested for passing information to Pakistan - she was posted in Pakistan. It's unusual in India at least for a woman to be accused of spying.

· Now, to be clear, IFS Cadre B are support staff. The diplomats are Cadre A, and represent the elite of India's civil servants. So the lady is not a diplomat.

· We're saying "minor" because in our experience it usually turns out the information passed is of little significance. But before some irate reader writes in, we have to point out that more and more intelligence officers are being posted under diplomatic cover to Indian missions abroad. No one pays much attention to the support staff, and it is possible the lady did lay her hands on some material of significance. But unless we learn that it was significant in terms Editor considers significant, we're going to treat this of no interest.

· A matter of semantics? US Defense Secretary says that Hezbollah has more rockets than most governments. We have to ask: does that mean that Hezbollah has too many rockets or that most governments have too few? We need to be clear on these things, no disrespect to Secretary Gates. Further, I can have 1000 rockets and you can have 100, but if mine are inaccurate duds and yours are low CEP killers, you are stronger than me.

0230 GMT April 28, 2010

· Pakistanis have accepted that the military will be the final arbiter of their destiny This is a bit unfair, because no one in Pakistan thought the army had gone away just because a US-backed bloodless revolution replaced Musharraf's autocratic military rule with a civilian government. But there had been much hope that civilian institutions were being strengthened.

· Recently, however, the Pakistan COAS General Kayani has increasingly let everyone know - particularly Washington that he is the ruling dude, and you can kiss his tushy - if and when he lets you have that honor.

· Mandeep Bajwa writes - after a long absence - that the Pakistan Army is considering a set up with a permanent Army Chief supported by compliant corps commanders. The civilians will continue to be the face of the government because its easier to deal with world that way. No Pakistan politics experts we, but we doubt anyone in India is particularly surprised that its business as usual in Pakistan. Maybe the American idealists who came up with the idea of having Mrs. Bhutto serve as Washington's Vicerene in Pakistan are a bit dismayed. But now that they helped kill the lady by sending her back and telling her the US stood behind her in calling out Musharraf and his crimes, we doubt they are wasting much time. We suspect they are on to the next great America democracy abroad project.

· Would it be too much to ask people in Washington to first worry about America for at least the next 50 years and to just leave others alone? We don't seem to be having too much success running our own country, why are we interfering in other countries?

· Sign of the times PRC's voting share at the World Bank has been raised to 4.4%. Now lets wait for the China apologists to say "Oh, but its less than one-twentieth of the Bank's votes." Sure it is. And what was China's vote in 1990? And what will it be in 2030? So sorry, America, to have disturbed your self-congratulatory navel gazing with a fact.

· In the Mega Engineering Project Department ROK has completed a 34-km sea wall that will create 401-square-kilometers of new land. Project took 20 years and $2.6-billion to complete. http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2010/04/27/50/0301000000AEN20100427005000315F.HTML

· Three years ago the Dutch started work on a 200-year range plan to deal with rising waters. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20689966/ Instead of fighting climate change, they are embracing it. The Dutch, of course, are the original coastal engineers. A fifth of their country lies below sea level and ~50% lies 1-meter or less above sea level. One technique they are already using has floating houses built on polder ground (areas reclaimed from the sea). When floods - expected with increasing frequency if the climate warms - strike, the houses are protected because the float higher.

· Maybe we'd be better off preparing for climate change instead of spending trillions of dollars over the next 100 years to contain change.

· BTW, perhaps someone can check this out: we're told that 125,000 years ago due to climate change glaciers and polar ice melted, raising sea levels by 4-6 meters. Sure won't no dratted humans driving cars and burning coal in those days. We once saw a reference - and are striving to refind it - saying scientists found ice cores that suggested that way back beyond, the earth's temperature shot up by 6 C (about 10 F) in ten years.

· Climate Change Report 4 has 5600 non-peer reviewed references according to an article sent to us by Flymike. The article, by James Heiser, is based on a report at http://www.noconsensus.org/ipcc-audit/IPCC-report-card.php If readers will recall, the head of the UN climate change panel, an Indian academic, is claimed to consist entirely of peer-reviewed material.

· Now, people, no one doubts there is something called climate change. After all, Maryland - where the Editor is writing this - sat under a mile of ice during the last ice age, 8-10,000 years ago. The questions are (a) is the existing science of climate change honest? (b) Is the historical record sufficiently accurate to show there has been climate change in the last 100-years? (c) Are humans causing climate change? and (d) if they are, why does this mandate a moral imperative to reverse the situation? Why is it okay for nature to change our climate and not us?

· So you want a pristine earth, the logical solution is to kill everyone except the maximum earth can support without environmental damage. Some people say that's less than 20-million people versus the 7-billion we have now. Then of course you have to kill all the animals because they too left unchecked cause environmental change. Cant imagine what was "natural" about the dinosaurs rampaging about and what is "unnatural" about humans rampaging around.

· Anyway, we digress. This is a complex matter. The Dutch are showing us a way to handle climate change. And we for sure need to start this debate afresh.

· BTW, what's going to happen when humankind's energy needs require capturing every watt of sunlight? That means a 300-million kilometer diameter sphere around the sun. That's going to cause some - um - environmental changes (titter). What about when we have to disintegrate stars to provide the ever-more energy we need? Whoa! That will be some environmental debate!

· Letter from reader H. Hans on India's victories against the Muslims Dear Editor, you said that "It is no coincidence that after after Prithvi Raj Chauhan dealt the Muslims a heavy defeat, the next time Hindu India won a war was one thousand years later. (The 1971 victory.)"

· Please read the Sikh history. What would you call the kicking Aghans received from Maharaja Ranjit Singh. How do you think Jammu and Kashmir were wrested from Afghan rulers. What about Ladakh? And what do you think Banda Bahadur did. If it weren't for him, most of Indian Punjab and Haryana would now be part of Pakistan. Of course, one can ignore all this if one were to consider Sikhs as not being Indians.

· Editor's note No one can possibly imagine Sikhs are not Indian or forget their valor. In the Punjab, during my grandparents' time, it was commonly done for a Hindu family to raise one son as a Sikh, as thanks for the protection the Sikhs gave the Hindus against the ruling Islamic dynasty.

· The great Maharaja Ranjit Singh, a genuine Indian hero was, however, a regional king. His accomplishments took place when the Mughul dynasty was all but dead, a corpse to be picked over by the invading Europeans. And sadly, when Ranjit Singh died, after a brief shining moment, - to paraphrase T.H. White's The Once and Future King - the British exploited divisions within Punjabis, so that soon enough, instead of being subservient to the Islamic invaders, we became subservient to the British. This includes my own family, which entered British service in the late 1800s and served faithfully till August 15, 1947.

· I'd like to make clear at no point am I saying that Muslims are not Indians. They may have been foreigners seven centuries ago. But they too now are Indians. To the point my good friend the then Pakistan military attaché Brigadier Z.I. Abbassi often carefully explained to me that Indian Muslims were no longer true Muslims, and he had serious doubts about the majority of Pakistani Muslims too because he felt they had become too Indianized.

0230 GMT April 27, 2010

· Cell phones and the younger generation So my school is cracking down on cell phones/texters used in the classroom, and its a five-day suspension if student is using on/both. Next year the school is putting in jammers, which will very greatly simplify teachers' lives and may actual the students to learn better.

· Here is what happened today in my class. Both students are well-behaved and conscientious students; both are graduating, and both will go on to college, at least to community college.

· I asked one student three times to put away her texter; which she did, only to resume when my back was turned. I asked her for the gadget, saying I would give it back when period ended. The students know I always return their gadgets - as opposed to making their parents come and get them from the teacher, something favored by many teacher. Student refused; I had no choice but to hie over with her to the administrator. On that short walk I told her "why do you want to get a five-day suspension for nothing?" She replied "Mr, Ravi, I'd rather be suspended for five days than not have my gadget for 90 minutes."

· After leaving the student with the administrator, I headed back, and found the other student on her phone after being told by me previously - same class period - to put it away. So I asked her to hand it over, which she did.

· Now, she had already called or been called by her boyfriend four times, including one while I was away for three minutes. In the next 90 minutes, while I had the phone, the young man called her 106 times, an average of 1.18 times a minute. At the end of the period I gave her phone back, and the first thing she did, of course, before she even out of the classroom, was the call the boyfriend.

· I want to reemphasize these are both good kids: studious, organized, polite, and respectful to me at all times. These are not your kids for whom there may never be hope.

· My point in sharing this with readers is two-fold. First, you will have a slightly better idea of what it means to be a teacher today. Most of the kids will get on the phone, or text, or play games with the person on the other side of the room, whenever the teacher's back is turned. That is a lot of times, because you have to explain things on the board, and then you have to circulate, helping individual students. As you may suspect, when they are diverted by the gadgets, they are not learning.

· Second, please understand I am passing no moral judgment on my children. This is the way they are. They have been pout in front of the TV from age 1 or 2, they play electronic games from age 4 and subsequent, they have I-pods from when they are 7 and up, and they have cell phones by the time they reach Middle School, if not earlier.

· I have just come back from a group event hosted by DC Public Schools for new teachers in the candidate pool to meet with principals. during the speeches, several people reached for their phones/texters and got busy. At the gym, there are people who get out of their car with their music going in their ear, and they spend the next hour or whatever in the gym with the music in their ear. You are familiar with people who cycle, jog, whatever, and they do not go outside with their music playing. These are not kids, these are adults. You also know from the media is that high-school/college students today are constantly interacting with each other or using gadgets their entire waking time, every day.

· This constant group-hug and constant aural and visual stimulation has to be wiring the brains of our young people very differently from the way the brains of people who grew up before Game Boys and cell phones and the rest. I do not know where this leads us, I do know that no educational system anywhere in the world is geared to teach our youngsters today they way they learn. My students have no memory, and I kid you not. You teach them something one minute, the next minute - really the next minute - they have forgotten. How can anyone learn without memory? I have been in this school four years, and I am teaching some of the kids the second or even the third time around, and with the exception of 10% of the kids who do have a memory, the other 90% are constantly stumbling up against stuff we learned in 9th grade - in many cases they want to go back to stuff they learned in fifth grade but have forgotten. If I don't reteach everything every single day, they get frustrated and say I don't care about them. But I am required to proceed in organized fashion from one concept to the next, each day. The first quarter in any math course is devoted to stuff the kids learned the previous year, and there's plenty of revision each day. If I don't do my job the way the schools says - and its a reasonable way - I get written up by my administrator. If I teach the way the kids want me to, we keep going over the same basic stuff every single day - such as the interior angles of a triangle add to 180-degrees. You cannot go over that fact for four years in row, several times a month, because you aren't going to progress!

· In a middle-income school, instead of 10% of students who do get it, you'll have 25%. In a high income school, you'll have 50% who get it - I have taught in all environments. In an elite private school, 90% will get it. But, please, people, how many kids are in high-income and in private schools compared to how many there are in low- and middle-income school?

· Now, what's to be done, I don't have a clue. I have a conceit that I can engineer an answer to any problem, and its a justified conceit because I am darn good at problem solving. But when disconnecting a student from her texter for 90-minutes is for her tantamount to a death sentence, and she'd rather take a five-day suspension, then I am very sorry folks, even your great problem solving Editor is at a loss for solutions.

0230 GMT April 26, 2010

· US first test of global strike weapon Last week the US launched a Mach 5 hypersonic missile (5000-kmph) missile that is boosted into space by a Minuteman missile, and then guided by satellites to its target. It takes about an hour to hit any place on earth.

· Currently the US can attack targets within 4 to 96 hours, which is considered too slow for fleeting targets of opportunities.

· The Russians are complaining. One official says the US wants N-disarmament not because it wants peace, but because it can now freely kill you with conventional weapons.

· Frightfully clever of the official to have figured it out. Your Editor figured it out over 30-years ago, when the MRLS with submunitions was developed. This baby's 12-round salvo is as effective as a lower-yield tactical nuke. The reason is simple. A tactical nuke releases a colossal amount of energy over a short distance. If we recall right - and please, readers, do correct - the NATO standard was a 10-KT weapon to wipe out a tank company, meaning to inflict 66% casualties on an armored division you'd need 40 or so. The MRLS salvo is far less powerful, but as deadly because it scatters its sub-munitions over a wide area.

· But what the Russian official is missing is that the hypersonic missile - called Falcon - needs an ICBM as a booster. Obviously, then, the Falcon will be a single-shot weapon because you don't want to use up your ICBMs - regulated under SALT launcher limits no matter what warhead you put on them. The newest version of SALT specifically requires the US to reduce one ICBM for every one Falcon/Minuteman combination it deploys. The Falcon is meant only for the highest priority target requiring immediate strike. Bin Laden in the opening moving from one cave to another comes to mind, certainly not use of such an expensive weapon limited in numbers in conventional warfare scenarios.

· The Russians do have a point in that no one wants an ICBM flying around - even if Washington calls Moscow on the hotline and says the payload is the Falcon, not an N-weapon. That's where later on the X-37 or something similar will come in handy. It will loiter for several months a time above the earth, with a payload of one or two such missiles.

· Of course, and understandably, this makes the Russians or Chinese no happier, but then what's to be done about it. Can't keep everyone happy all the time.

· Less understandable is the response of the conservative Heritage Foundation, who, one would assume, would be thrilled and delighted with the new program. But no. Heritage says that the administration is "pursuing a strategically incoherent policy, one that is ostensibly aimed at reassuring other nations but will more likely lead to greater instability and uncertainty”. Whoa! Have we missed something? The global strike thing is not meant to reassure any nations. It's meant to un-reassure the Saddams and the OB's of the world. Remember how the US hit that restaurant in Baghdad only to find Saddam and Uday had left 15-minutes earlier? If we recall right, that was a B-1. Global strike would have gotten him, just as it would have gotten Bib Laden the time his camp in Afghanistan was attacked by cruise missiles chugging along at 1000-kmph. he'd left the camp by the time the missiles arrived.

· So come on, Heritage. We know as with all think tanks - right, center, left, you are about politics, but once in a while your President does get it right.

· Two Falcons are a-building, one for a 2011 test. DARPA is handling the program, suggesting we're a long while from deployment.

· http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article7107179.ece

0230 GMT April 25, 2010

· The Terrorist al-Sadr's reemergence This bearded blot on humanity has already positioned himself as Iraq's kingmaker, as he has won 40 seats in the Parliamentary elections.

· Now we learn from the media that after the recent Baghdad blasts, he has ordered his militia to "protect" mosques.

· The Iraq Government says it is not having any of this; there is only one protector of the Iraqi people, and that is the Government. So it was with mordant satisfaction we learned that when the Iraq security forces got to the two most recently bomb sites, and when the Shias who live there started to abuse the soldier and hurl rocks at them, the Iraq security forces opened fire, killing a number of demonstrators - no one really care to ask how many.

· But still, al-Sadr's "protection" is worrisome to many because his previous "protection" involved crimes against humanity. For other crimes against humanity, Iraq has executed important figures from the Saddam regime, including Saddam. And good riddance, we day. But somehow the Iraq Government has not found it neccessary to arrest and indict al-Sadr for killing tens of thousands of Sunnis. After all, Iraq and its government are Shias, and those were only Sunnis. You'd expect that of the Iraq Government, but would you expect it of the US? If you have been reading this blog for a few years, you would know by know that US pursuit of war criminals is purely opportunistic: if it gains the US, the people will be indicted, if it doesn't, they won't. This allows us to continue doing business with the greatest repressor of human rights, China.

· But are we at Orbat.com worried? Not a bit. We have said for many years that the US, by the application of incredible energy and time and money, has managed to twist Iraq into an image found desirable by the US. But what the US has achieved is not the real Iraq.

· The real Iraq is a seething mass of fault lines. Saddam kept it under control by mass murder. Now Iraq is a democracy, and the US is going - about time, too. So Iraqis will start resolving their fault lines the way they know how, and - we've said this before - it 'aint going to be pretty.

· But folks, the day of the US as global policeperson has come and gone. Americans are great at hot rhetoric, and they kind of got ahead of themselves with this Axis of Evil business. and taking up civil rights issues from Cuba to Indonesia and ever where in-between. Except for China, of course, and come on people, we got to give Americans a break because making money, not justice, is our real role in life. Nothing wrong with that, Editor wishes he could partake of the money making. Yet, it would be nice if the US stopped so hypocritical on this issue, one's ears start hurting after a while.

· The reasons the Global Good Cop's day has come and gone are not terribly complicated. (a) First, we are willing to yak about it, but if doing something to further human rights mean we have to sacrifice even a little bit, we get serious ouchies. You can't transform the world without sacrifice. (b) We are done broke. We've been living beyond our means for decades, and we're heading the way of the new Banana Republics. We've been able to carry on this farce a lot longer than any other country would, because global trade is still dominated by the dollar. But folks, the day is rapidly coming when the dollar will be a second class currency. (c) We have so many problems at home that we are approaching dysfunctionality. An actual unemployment rate of 16%, no real improvement in the standard of life for ordinary folks in 30 years, a nation that jails more people per capita than the Soviets or the apartheid white South Africans ever did, and infrastructure that is a joke, a permanent underclass consisting of about a quarter of the population, and don't start us on the K-12 educational system. Lets not talk about entitlements and so on, we dont want to get too depressed.

· So, in short, we should not worry about al-Sadr or Iraq or anything outside the US. Of India in the regressive socialist days of the period 1950-1990 it used to be said: Indians are concerned about everyone else in the world because there's nothing they can do to help their own people. US has reached that stage. Now we can show we are starting on the path to recovery by saying to Iraq - and to Afghanistan - "it's been real."

· By the way, at Editor's school, Math department has eighteen faculty. Five are native Americans. The rest of us are foreigners or naturalized Americans. One thing we imports agree on: less than 10% of our American math 12th graders could meet 9th grade standards back in our countries. And mind you, Editor's school is not at all a bad school, given that it is an all minority inside-the-Washington-Beltway area. Its lower income, but it has a lot of resources and a first rate faculty and dedicated administrators - across the board. Don't get me wrong, now. I am grateful I live in a country where someone who was 50 was given the opportunity to retrain for a new career, teaching in my case, and am grateful I get paid fairly for what I do. I wasn't complaining about my students, who are the most affectionate bunch of humans I have ever met. Its not their fault they're part of the underclass.

· (Of course, I am feeling a little less grateful now that I am being kicked out of my school due to age, and I may or may not get another teaching job - or any decent job. But this getting rid of older teachers is part of the current fashion to find solutions for America's failing schools, and there's very few countries that allow you to work as long as you are physically able - aside from this business of age discrimination. I don't take this personally at all.)

· Earth Day 1970 and Now: from Reader Flymike “We have about five more years at the outside to do something.” Kenneth Watt, ecologist

· “Civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.” George Wald, Harvard Biologist

· “We are in an environmental crisis which threatens the survival of this nation, and of the world as a suitable place of human habitation.” Barry Commoner, Washington University biologist

· “Man must stop pollution and conserve his resources, not merely to enhance existence but to save the race from intolerable deterioration and possible extinction.”New York Times editorial, the day after the first Earth Day

· “Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make. The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years.”
• Paul Ehrlich, Stanford University biologist

· “By…[1975] some experts feel that food shortages will have escalated the present level of world hunger and starvation into famines of unbelievable proportions. Other experts, more optimistic, think the ultimate food-population collision will not occur until the decade of the 1980s.”Paul Ehrlich, Stanford University biologist

· “It is already too late to avoid mass starvation.” Denis Hayes, chief organizer for Earth Day

· “Demographers agree almost unanimously on the following grim timetable: by 1975 widespread famines will begin in India; these will spread by 1990 to include all of India, Pakistan, China and the Near East, Africa. By the year 2000, or conceivably sooner, South and Central America will exist under famine conditions….By the year 2000, thirty years from now, the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine.”Peter Gunter, professor, North Texas State University

· “Scientists have solid experimental and theoretical evidence to support…the following predictions: In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution…by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half….” Life Magazine, January 1970

· “At the present rate of nitrogen buildup, it’s only a matter of time before light will be filtered out of the atmosphere and none of our land will be usable.” Kenneth Watt, Ecologist

· “We are prospecting for the very last of our resources and using up the nonrenewable things many times faster than we are finding new ones.” Martin Litton, Sierra Club director

· “By the year 2000, if present trends continue, we will be using up crude oil at such a rate…that there won’t be any more crude oil. You’ll drive up to the pump and say, `Fill ‘er up, buddy,’ and he’ll say, `I am very sorry, there isn’t any.’”Kenneth Watt, Ecologist

· Dr. S. Dillon Ripley, secretary of the Smithsonian Institute, believes that in 25 years, somewhere between 75 and 80 percent of all the species of living animals will be extinct.”Sen. Gaylord Nelson

· “The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years. If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.”Kenneth Watt, Ecologist

· Editor's comment In fairness, perhaps a few of these dire predictions did not come true because we started to clean up the environment. This was also the peak Club of Rome period, where instead of the usual religious lot telling us we were in End Times, it was a bunch of very respected - and very wrong - scientists.

0230 GMT April 24, 2010

· Pakistan could give Taliban N-weapons to use against India This from a US Government commission on nuclear proliferation. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/Pak-may-slip-over-N-weapons-to-Taliban-for-use-against-India/articleshow/5847006.cms

· We confess to mild confusion about this report. First, how can the Pakistan government be sure that the Taliban will use the weapons against India - the US commissions mentions Kashmir. The Taliban could equally use the weapons in Afghanistan or against Pakistan.

· Second, we're not quite sure how you heave a 1000-kg package across the Kashmir Line of Control. Infiltrators on foot and in small groups do sometimes make it over, but is the report saying Pakistan can break down a weapon into - say - 25 parts, hand the Taliban a screwdriver and a spanner, and get them to reassemble it in Kashmir?

· Now, someone is going to say an N-warhead does not weigh 1000-kg. Maybe. But you have to surround it with a lot of shielding if people are going to go walking up mountain and down mountain with the thing on their backs.

· Third, if Srinager or Jammu blows up, and the Pakistanis say - uh, we didn't do it, is it likely anyone is going to believe them? India's sitting on a few n-weapons of its own, you know.

· Fourth, if a couple of Pakistan warheads go walkies and explode in India, how long will it take the West, Russia, and China to figure out that a very high threshold has been crossed, and having gone walkies once, Pakistan warheads could go walkies again, this time against a Western or Chinese or Russian city?

· Not long, we figure, and we also figure it won't be long before Pakistan is disarmed. Not by people seizing its warheads, but by people attacking all likely storage facilities - with N-weapons, of course.

· Now, we're not saying Pakistan GHQ is not famous for its illusions regarding proxies. In the first, second, and fourth Kashmir wars, Pakistan initiated hostilities by sending into Indian held territory its soldiers, or irregulars trained and led by its soldiers. The illusion didn't last even a day in all three cases. We find it hard to believe the Pakistanis could be this crazy, i.e., get a proxy to blow up an Indian city or two and then sit back and say "there's no one here but us meeces."

· Do US Government commissions have nothing better to do?

· US launches X-37 spaceplane This feller looks like a baby shuttle, and is reusable up to 20 times. Its unmanned, can stay in space a few weeks, and lands like a regular shuttle. The carrier is an Atlas 5. The payload appears to be 450-kg or thereabouts, but then again, no one knows much about the X-37.

· Having launched the first vehicle - a second is under construction - US says it doesn't know when the spaceplane is coming down, could be as much as nine months. US says you can't hide a launch, but you can hide what the rest is about, and the rest is classified.

· The Atlas V first flew in 2005, and has performed successfully in 20 of 21 launches. Now here's the thing about the Atlas V as a weight lifter, which makes us a wee bit suspicious that the spaceplane can carry only a 450-kg max payload. The X-37 is about 5-tons, but the Atlas V can carry 30-tons to low earth orbit. Seems to us why waste money on a vehicle that carries only a 450-kg payload when it costs the same to launch a vehicle that can carry a lot bigger payload.

· Incidentally, Atlas V is not your typical back yard toy you buy for yourself and blame it on the kids. Its max gross if 550-tons.

0230 GMT April 23, 2010

· Iran has been in the news again. Pronouncements made by US officials seem to suggest that the sanctions regime against Iran is unlikely to stop its quest for N-weapons and that a military option is not desirable. Among reasons given is that US cannot be sure of getting all of Iran's N-sites. It is suggested that containment, even if that requires force, may be the sole viable option.

· Along with this Pentagon has released an unclassified version of a little pamphlet on Iranian military power. Reader Luxembourg kindly sends a link http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/IranReportUnclassified.pdf

· Let's get this report out of the way to the trash bin as quickly as possible. I would refuse to accept such a report even if written by the newest and youngest of my correspondents, it is of such poor quality and so completely useless. It is a political statement, not a military one, and would have been better released by the State Department.

· It amazes me how many otherwise intelligent and capable persons say a military option is not viable. No one in their right mind says that the US can get all of Iran's N-assets in one go. Anyone knows that you'd need a sustained bombing campaign, going anywhere to sixty days or even beyond. But what is the big deal with sixty days or more? US has carried out any number of campaigns of such duration since the Korean War.

· Then there are our friends who say oil prices will shoot up and the global economy will collapse. This shows a complete lack of understanding of the oil trade. The day the US attacks Iran, world governments will shut down the futures oil markets and freeze prices. Oil will NOT go to $150, $200, or $300 or whatever figure some "expert" announces in a desperate bid to get his two-seconds of fame.

· Ah, our experts will say, that will lead to market inefficiency and black marketeering and all those evil things. Oh dear. So sad. Boo Hoo Hoo. Not. Does anyone think that when national security is involved anyone gives a hoot about market inefficiency?

· The simple reality is that the US/NATO/Gulf/South Asia/Japan/China will send every mine warfare vessel they own to the Gulf. As it is the tanker routes are a mile wide (separate routes for incoming and outgoing ships). After a week of air attack, the Iranians will have nothing left to send against world naval forces.

· Sure, clearing mines is difficulty, dirty business. But that's what you have a military for. Sure warships and tankers are going to blow up. But if someone thinks the idea of a war is walk away without a scratch, that person needs to put in a padded cell to keep them safe from anything dangerous, like falling down and bruising their little noses.

· There will be a disruption of oil supplies lasting between 30 and 90 days. So that's why people have oil reserves. That's why the Saudis have built pipelines to the Mediterranean. And that is also why, if Europe and the US were actually serious about national security, they would have built more pipelines with sufficient excess capacity in case a pipeline or two or three is attacked and damaged. And that is also why they should have stored much more oil than they have. (OK, truth-telling time: no one but the governments themselves know how much oil is in storage. Common sense dictates that you will not talk about it, and spend a year building up additional reserve stocks before taking military action.)

· Sure there will be disruptions and growth will fall. But consider this, folks. What about the disruptions that will result if Iran manages to get a couple of warheads on European capitals and a couple more on US cities? Here's our bid: start counting up from two trillion dollars per city.

· But Iran will rebuild its facilities say the experts. No it wont. Because when it starts rebuilding you bomb again. The Germans and Japanese did not give up after the first bomber raids against Berlin and Tokyo. The Iranians wont give up after a single bombing campaign. But hey, folks: anyone remember what the purpose of war is? It is to impose your will on the enemy. No one says the process is cost-free or quick.

· Now, there is a reason you may not want to destroy Iran's N-power and that is it well may damage Islamic western relations. But this is a political reason, not a military reason. The experts should not hide behind a military reason because they don't have the political courage to face the potential political carnage.

· All we have to say is this: if you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen. If the US-West-World feel the cost of eradicating Iran's N-deterrent is too high, there are two simple alternatives.

· One, welcome the Iranians into the global political system by respecting their fears and their imperatives.

· Two, forget about a Second American Century or America as the world's superpower, disband the military, and every American take up knitting pink booties and blue blankies for the Iranians.

· Personally, we are comfortable with both alternatives. But no, we are not accepting wagers on which course the US will choose. We don't want to steal your money, when we know perfectly well US would rather take the second alternative.

· The world's sole superpower? Bah. Maybe we need the bunny slippers and blankies more than the Iranians.

0230 GMT April 22, 2010

We regret there seems to be no news of consequence today.

0230 GMT April 21, 2010

· ROK Corvette Reader Adam sends a link to an ROK media source http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/04/20/2010042000972.html which has a DPRK refugee source claim that they have been told DPRK sank the ship.

· Meanwhile, another article in the same media source says the ROK military is convinced a DPRK Shark-class 350-ton submarine was the culprit. It gives a wholly plausible action sequence as to why ROK believes that. http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/04/19/2010041901342.html

· Terrorist Al-Sadr's latest Iraq election gambit As predicted by some, he has thrown the weight of his ~40 seat bloc behind al-Jaffari, who was Prime Minister before Alawi and Al-Malaki.

· Meanwhile, Iraq's election commission has granted al-Malaki a partial recount of Baghdad ballots - the current PM came out two seats behind challenger Alawi.

· So Mr. Alawi has retaliated, and says by all means recount, but lets expand it other places. Presumably these will be seats Alawi lost to al-Malaki.

· Its easy to get impatient here, but remember, its not the US's business any more. We're seeing democracy in action in Iraq, and no one has claimed that democracy is a neat system with quick results. For that you need totalitarian governments, you know, the ones where there is only one candidate permitted and who never gets less than 96% of the vote and never more than 98%. Then you have the Iran system, where the government decides who is permitted to stand for election and who not, and just by incredible "coincidence", for every government supporter who is disqualified, 5 to 10 opposition supporters are disqualified.

· US to bring first batch of Somali pirates for domestic trial says National Public Radio. We are glad that the US is finally showing some backbone. Nothing the US has done in Editor's memory is as spineless as bribing Kenya to try the pirates. Moreover, once the word gets out just how pleasant are American prisons, that will be a real deterrent. Wonder if the Euros will show some courage now. Doubtful.

0230 GMT April 20, 2010

US-Iraq forces kill top 2 Al-Qaeda in Iraq commanders
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/04/al_qaeda_in_iraqs_to.php

· Second Pakistan Army division in Swat is 8th Infantry Division (ex-XXX Corps), according to Reader Sparsh. For some time now he has been telling us a second division was sent to Swat. He got the division number from a recently published list of Pakistan Army promotions. We leave www.longwarjournal.org to follow Pakistan operations in the NWFP, and wait their comment as to why a second division has been dispatched to a district that was supposedly cleared of Taliban last year.

· "Did the earth move for you too?" From Agence France Press: "BEIRUT: A senior Iranian cleric says women who wear revealing clothing and behave promiscuously are to blame for earthquakes.

· Iran is one of the world's most earthquake-prone countries, and the cleric's unusual explanation for why the earth shakes follows a prediction by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that a quake is certain to hit Tehran and that many of its 12 million inhabitants should relocate.

· "Many women who do not dress modestly ... lead young men astray, corrupt their chastity and spread adultery in society, which (consequently) increases earthquakes," Hojatoleslam Kazem Sedighi was quoted as saying by Iranian media. " http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/Iranian-cleric-Promiscuous-women-cause-quakes/articleshow/5833574.cms

· Editor's question: Er, where does one meet these ladies so Editor can do his bit to bury Iran's N-weapons program? Purely in the US's national interest, of course; he promises not to have fun.

0230 GMT April 19, 2010

· From Reader Robert X Why is RAW not taking out Hafiz Saeed, the LeT leader behind the Mumbai Massacre? He is still appearing in public in Pakistan. RAW should be able to nail him. Compare this to the Hezbollah leader, who is still underground because he (correctly) fears attack. I love India, but I wonder why RAW has so little credible threat-value against demonstrated enemies of India--it makes me cautious about how "good" of an ally India can be for us in the West, even though India is indeed a very good country! I want a stronger India to be an ally of the West--it is truly win-win all-around if that happens!

· Editor's comment My impression is that India's Research and Analysis Wing - the innocuous name given for India's CIA - would happily kill Mr. Saeed if it could. But getting assassins close enough to him would be a big problem. Look at what Israel had to go through to kill the Hamas official in the Gulf. And despite having a long arm and deep intelligence in Gaza, the Israelis couldn't nail him there. Plus the Israelis surround Gaza and keep it in lock-down. India cannot realistically reach Mr. Saeed.

· The reason Israel's enemies hide is because they can be killed from the air at any time. The Israelis have advanced signal intelligence capability and an air force that has long practice in attacking urban targets with the minimum of collateral damage. Very often the Israelis target an individual vehicle. The long distances India must reach to attack Mr. Saeed is just one factor that makes the Israeli and Indian situations different. Israel has air supremacy over its adjacent neighbors and can do as it wants.

· Another issue is that Israel from its birth has lived in mortal danger. It has of necessity acquired sophisticated skills needed to survive. The kind of terror LeT represents is something new to India, which is a huge country and a soft state. India's security ethos has traditionally been reactive, and the country's size enables it to absorb grievous blows which might easily destroy other countries. It is no coincidence that after after Prithvi Raj Chauhan dealt the Muslims a heavy defeat, the next time Hindu India won a war was one thousand years later. (The 1971 victory.)

· Last, like it or not, the people we call Israeli are Europeans. Yes, a minority of Israelis are Arab. But the country was founded by Europeans, and Europeans to this day form the bulk of its immigrants. The Europeans are a lot more efficient at most things than are we South Asians.

· Here's a small thing that might help in understanding India. I lived there from 1970-1990. Though I was born in pre-Independence India, I do not have a birth certificate. Until I purchased a motorcycle in 1984, I had not one single piece of identification except my passport, which obviously I never carried. Even after I got the motorcycle, I never carried the license. I did not even have a wallet, and simply carried my money in my pocket. In Delhi I didn't carry my house key wither. I left it on top the front door lintel, where anyone in the street or adjoining houses could see. I believe my situation was no different from 90% of the population. The relaxed nature of life in India is, of course, what made India an enormously appealing and pleasant place in which to live. In America, not a single person can escape being tracked several times a day. In the UK, because of their reliance on street cameras, it's a lot worse.

· Before India can reach the level of Israel in matters of internal security, it has to undergo decades of learning to live in a security conscious environment. That applies also to the efficient and timely dispatch of India's enemies.

0230 GMT April 18, 2010

· ROK Corvette Sinking Reader Adam has been analyzing the sinking of the ROK corvette. We'd noted that media was saying the problem with the torpedo theory is that the crew did not detect a submarine or a torpedo. We suspected there were all sorts of reasons why a submarine/torpedo might not be detected, but felt it best not to get ahead of the story.

· The first thing to note is that the corvette's stern has been lifted out of the water and now will come recovery of the bow. The corvette broke cleanly into two.

· The second thing to note is the ROK government has had plenty of time to investigate. This is not a Bermuda Triangle category mystery. An internal explosion has been ruled out. So the culprit has to be a mine or a torpedo. ROK government has said an explosion such as might be caused by a mid-size DPRK torpedo was recorded in the area.

· Reader Adam makes the point that the corvette is an anti-surface warfare type, not an ASW type. The class is small, 1200 tons. This suggests the sensors aboard the corvette might be of limited capability against submarines and torpedoes.

· Modern torpedoes do not leave wakes and cannot be visually detected. The corvette did not have a helicopter, so detection by MAD is not possible. Detection by hydrophone is difficult if the submarine is operating at very slow speed. Moreover, as Reader Adam notes, the corvette was underway, and its own noise would create detection problems.

· If the corvette had its sonar on it is possible a torpedo might have been detected. But unless the corvette was on alert, it might not have its sonar active.

· So, Reader Adam concludes that just because neither a torpedo nor a submarine was detected, is no reason to rule out that a submarine sank the corvette.

· Politically, ROK cannot keep its finding secret. ROK is a democracy, and the Government is under pressure to explain what it knows and what it doesn't. So however much ROK may wish to avoid a confrontation with DPRK, it will have to tell the truth.

0230 GMT April 17, 2010

Bill Roggio analyzes Haqqani claim that after suicide attack on CIA, US UAV kills are down 90%

· As if us humans didn't have enough problems...New Scientist says super-massive black holes kill galaxies. Not a few stars here and there, but entire galaxies with hundreds of billions of stars. http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18783-when-black-holes-go-rogue-they-kill-galaxies.html

· Quiet sun brings colder winters More fodder for the climate-change debate. This is what the Russians have been saying for some time, that we are in for a period of global cooling and not warming, starting 2011 - which is next year, because the sun will go through a cooling phase. Recently someone contradicted the Russians, saying the cooling will be much offset by global warming. Apparently not, according to the New Scientist http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20627564.800-quiet-sun-puts-europe-on-ice.html

· Hezbollah says whether it has Scuds is none of Israel's business Further, rather amazingly, debka.com says the Scuds are on the Syria-Lebanon border, Hezb is training on them, but they have not been shifted to Lebanon. This is quite amazing because given debka.com's general strident tone, you'd expect the blog to say the Scuds are already emplaced in Lebanon and aimed at Israel. http://debka.com/article/8714/

· Indigenous Indian MBT outperforms T-90 says the blog Broadsword. The Indian Army is giving up its staunch opposition to the Arjun MBT after conclusive trials of the two tanks by an armored brigade in Rajasthan. The blog says the question is not will the Army now order more Arjuns beyond the first batch of 124, which is in service with two regiments. Rather, the questions now when and how many will be ordered.

· We're a bit confused because we thought a second order of 124 had already been placed.

· The verdict is a big victory for the indigenous R and D establishment which generally produces weapons that no one in the armed forces wants.

· Arjun weighs 58 tons, and the Indians are adding two more tons of armor, to make it 60 tons. While it is true Indian railway flat cars and bridges cannot handle the Arjun - width is also an issue - the resolution to this problem is simple. Station Arjun with forward formations in the desert so no rail movement is required.

0230 GMT April 16, 2010

· UN reports on Mrs. Bhutto's assassination Thus report is a compendium of marvelous revelations and is worth many times the cost of the investigation. Not.

· The report says better security could have prevented the killing. Hmmmm. Dashed deep thinkers these UN chappies. We bow to them, reverently, for who can match such wisdom?

· Then the report finds that the intelligence agencies conducted its own investigation parallel to that of the civil police, and shared data with the police only selectively. Wow. Who knew?

· And the report says that the police were worried about running afoul of the intel agencie, so they did not conduct a proper investigation. This must be the most important discovery since Newton discovered gravity.

· The report's recommendation? This will blow you away so hang on to your seats. The recommendation is that the Pakistan Government conduct an independent, through, and unbiased investigation.

· What a bunch of lame doofus types, these UN investigators.

· Israel Air Force seeks new training airspace says Jerusalem Post. IsAF conducted its training over Turkey, but after the 2008 Gaza operation Turkey has severely reduced its cooperation with Israel.

· Romania is a possibility. JPost speculates that the March 2010 flyover of Hungary by two Israeli Gulfstreams may have been part of an air exercise. If so, it seems to have gone wrong because the Hungarians fired their director of air traffic control. Quite odd, the whole thing.

· JPost says in May 2009 a French newsweekly reported Israeli air exercises over Gibralter - which happens to be 4000-miles away.

0230 GMT April 15, 2010

· Suspicion grows DPRK sank ROK corvette says Asahi Shimbun of Japan. The explosion was of the order of 260-kg of TNT, equal to that a middle-sized torpedo carried by DPRK Sango-class submarines. While a mine is now seen as unlikely, the problem with the torpedo theory is the corvette did not report either a submarine or a torpedo before the explosion.

· While part of the ship has been raised, another part still remains submerged. ROK seems to be waiting to examine the second part before saying anything. Meanwhile ROK has asked for foreign countries to assist with its inquiries. Four nations, including US and UK, have agreed.

· What's worrying us at Orbat.com is that while we know DPRK is run by a bunch of Looney Tuners, no nation that is even partly in its right mind goes around torpedoing another country's warship. If DPRK has gone beyond crazy talk to crazy action, US is faced with the unpleasant task of deciding if DPRK needs to be disarmed before it does something even more irrational.

· http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201004130425.html

· Ten PRC warships passed south of Okinawa last Saturday during a training exercise, says Asahi Shimbun. The warships have a right to be doing whatever they were doing, as they were in international waters. But ten warships at a time was unusual. The force included two improved-Kilo submarines and two missile destroyers.

· Iran complains to UN about US N-blackmail says yesterday's Xinhua. Iran is referring to the announcement that the US would not first-use N-weapons against a non-N-weapons state that is in compliance with the NPT. since neither Iran nor DPRK are in compliance, the US policy leaves open the option of first-use against these two countries.

· Okay, so the Iranian complaint of N-blackmail is correct. At the same time, what about frequent Iranian statements that Israel should be wiped off the face of the earth? Isn't this blackmail too, particulary as Iran is working towards N-warheads? It already has the neccessary delivery systems. People in glass houses and all that...

0230 GMT April 14, 2010

Iran

Tom Cooper

(Editor's note: Tom Cooper makes historical and contemporary points about Iran's military capabilities. The matter is of obvious relevance at this time.)

· USS Stark was not attacked by a Dassault Mirage F.1EQ fighter-bomber, but - actually - by a Dassault Falcon 50 biz-jet, modified through addition of a radome and entire avionics set of Mirage F.1EQ-5, plus two underwing hardpoints for AM.39 Exocet anti-ship missiles. Nick-named "Susanna" in Iraq AF service, this plane was originally intended as a training aid for future Iraqi Mirage pilots, and thus contained not only an entire cockpit of the Mirage F.1 but also an additional fuel tank inside its cabin.

· Now, as well known, USS Stark was hit by two Exocets, one of which failed to detonate. "Standard" Mirage F.1EQ-5 could carry two of these big missiles as well, but was very sluggish and slow once airborne. Flying it over 300km away from base proved extremely tiresome for pilots. Susanna could do so without any particular problems.

· Well, following the end of the war with Iran, in 1988, the Iraqis continued adding upgrades to Susanna, including a capability to carry yet more fuel - this time inside a standard RP.35 drop tank, mounted under the centreline. With this, the plane had not only the range to reach, for example, Mumbai when operating out of Shoibiyah AB (former "RAF Shaiba", near Basrah), but also enough range to reach its intended operational zone, namely the "Eastern Mediterranean" - and that along a circuitous route (via Turkey, for example).

· BTW, according to a letter from the then Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs to the Secretary General UN, from September 1991, together with three other Falcon 50s, Susanna was "evacuated" to Iran. The plane was never seen again ever since...

· Whether or not the crew of USS Stark received indications of being painted by "Mirage's" (i.e. Susanna's) Cyrano IV-M radar is a matter of much dispute. The probable reason is that the Cyrano-IVM had no "lock-on" mode, but was generally used in "track-while-scan" mode, emitting signals very similar to any "early warning" radar. Frankly speaking, ECM and ESM systems then in use generally tended not to rise any alarms when "painted" by such radars, but only when detecting emissions in lock-on mode. That meant that the crews of targeted (war)ships could not say they have been targeted, even if appropriately equipped.

· Now, I sincerely doubt we'll ever learn whether a solution for this problem was found in any kind of publicly-available media source. But, I think that one might want to bear in mind that at least one of anti-ship missiles currently in Iranian service is EO-homing - which means it emits no radar emissions at all.

· Regarding whether somebody might get close to USN warships or not in the case of a "real war": recently "aired" reports from within specific circles of the USN indicate something like the existence of so-called "no-go" zones for USN warships along the Chinese - and Iranian coasts. These are places USN warships should avoid going to even in the times of peace - because they are too dangerous for them.

· Surely enough, warships at high seas are anything but easy to detect - regardless of their, generally, huge RCS (except in the case of latest, "stealth" warships). And, surely enough, not a single case is known in which anybody detected and tracked a carrier battle group on the high seas in a combat situation since 1945. However, nowadays one needs no expensive and precious manned reconnaissance assets (like RF-4Es or [E]C-130 Khoofash operated by the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force) to do the job. Countries like Iran operate hundreds of recce UAVs, and these can do the job of finding and tracking USN warships inside the Persian Gulf (for example) as well. Considering the vast array of different types of anti-ship missiles in Iranian arsenal, most of which have a far better range than the Exocets of the 1980s, plus the fact that the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy operates three Kilo-Class attack submarines, the units of the USN's 5th Fleet are facing a very serious threat already when moving into the Gulf of Oman. Not to talk about their movements through the Hormuz Straits or inside the Persian Gulf. It is therefore little surprising that the Iranians living and working in the later two areas complain their telephones literally start ringing every time a USN warship is passing by - due to all the ECCM emitted from the later. And that in peacetime...

· Given the USN's behaviour during the Kosovo War, back in 1999, when USS T Roosevelt (CVN-71) CVBG was held almost 1000km away from the coast of the then Serbian-Montenegrin Federation, simply because the later had several old and rusty attack submarines in service, the USN is obviously taking such threats anything but lightly. Well...come to "Littoral Warfare", USN.

· Regarding Misagh MANPADs: the USN (and USMC) actually have some bad experiences with Iranian MANPADs, and I am quite sure they do not take them as lightly as indicated by your reaction to contemporary Iranian media reports either. It was exactly the "mix" mentioned in the stated report - namely that of MANPADs mounted on IRGC speedboats - that resulted in the loss of one USMC Bell AH-1 Cobra attack helicopter and its crew, on 18 April 1988, during the well-known US Operation "Praying Mantis".

· Similarly, when the Royal Saudi Air Force became involved in the recent war in Yemen (between the local Government and al-Houthis), in November 2009, Saudi pilots received an order to operate above the estimated maximum ceiling of supposed MANPADs reported as in al-Houthi possession, alone because of corresponding US intelligence reports. Surely, the later subsequently proved entirely wrong (i.e. al-Houthis did not receive any Misaghs or any other MANPADs), but this situation indicates that the threat from these weapons is not taken lightly even by pilots of such advanced fighter-bombers like Tornado IDS or F-15S...

· Overall, there is no doubt that the Iranian media reports about "new and amazing" developments within the Iranian defence sector can be taken lightly. There is much bragging, and mistaken or chaotic translations - because most of the journalists in question have absolutely no clue about military affairs (as if this would be the first time we are facing such a situation?). However, the Iranian military cannot be taken lightly - if for no other reason, then because it's not manned by the Iranian journalists.

0230 GMT April 13, 2010

· Russians fomented Kyrgyzstan revolution says the Washington Post April 12, 2010, and other sources. Apparently the deposed Prez made a deal with Russia for a big aid package contingent on throwing the US out of Manas air Base. Prez received one aid installment, threw the US out, then invited the US back for triple the previous US fees.

· The Russians then began to squeeze Prez, who was already hugely unpopular as he and his family were inclined to treat the State as their private asset. To add insult to injury, Prez would take petroleum supplied by the Russians at highly concessional rates and sell it to the Americans for full price at Manas. And pocket the money, of course. Last straw for Prez came when the Russians suddenly stopped fuel supplies, and prices for the ordinary person shot up, in addition to the economic burdens imposed by the inefficient and corrupt rule of the Prez.

· The Kyrgyzs who overthrew the Prez say he imported foreign gunmen to put down the unrest, and these people are the ones who have killed the 70-odd civilians who have died. This is why there is no longer any question of safe passage: the revolutionaries want trials and sentences.

· When we read about the Russian role, frankly we were highly amused. How well the Russians have learned the popular revolt business which US thought was its monopoly! And the irony of it all: the Russians, who were in practice even more anti-revolutionary than the Americans, for once are feeding a revolution against a tyrant and have thus aligned themselves with democracy! Whereas the US - not for the first time, was supporting the reactionary power.

· Our advice to the Americans would be: don't take this seriously. In warfare - actual and ideological - the enemy always adapts. The US used the concepts of democracy and freedom to help destroy the Soviet Union, and after being at the receiving end for at least two decades, the Russians have struck back by co-opting the American game. And it has worked well for the Russians, as it did for the Americans. Imitation the sincerest form of flattery and all that.

· Doubtless some pontificating American commentators will blame the US: this is what you get for supporting dictators etc etc. They would be wrong to pontificate. US needed Manas to support the Afghan War, wisely it dealt with regional states as they are instead of as the US would like them to be. When you are engaged in a war, you don't complicate things by insisting everyone along your line of communication has to have lily-white hands - at least as the Americans define lily-white.

· Besides, what was the US to do? The deposed Prez came into power as a popular revolutionary with the so-called Tulip Revolution. That was democracy at work as people revolted against the post-Soviet totalitarian government.

· Senegal Al-Jazzera says the President of Senegal is in discussion with the French for a withdrawal of French forces in the country. France has had a continuous military presence there since independence in 1960.

· No doubt this is a good idea of the President, even though it seems a bit impulsive and the mechanics remain to be worked out.

· But other ideas of President Wade are not as good. He has had erected a $28-million monument celebrating fifty years of independence. This money should surely go to improve the lot of Senegal's poor. Even worse is another idea of the President's: he thinks he should get a cut of the tourist revenues the monument will earn, because it's his idea.

· Anyone can make a reality of her/his idea if s/he commands the public treasury. Moreover, ideas invented on the job belong to Mr. Wade's employers - the people of Senegal. This is so in all governments.

· Or is Mr. Wade confusing the people of Senegal with his august person, as so many tin-pot dictators do, on the dubious legal principle of "The State c'est moi?"

· Was it a Tomahawk? asks reader and Orbat.com contributor Colin Robinson, referring to Debka.com's insistence the US fired a missile from Saudi territorial waters. Debka did talk about multiple warheads, but is it nonetheless possible the blog got Tomahawk and Trident confused?

· Possibly. Though again we are left with the problem if why the US would send an attack submarine into confined waters and launch a land-attack missile in Iran's direction just to convince the Gulf nations that they enjoy the benefits of a US N-umbrella. To use an example we used yesterday, does it make sense the US would fire a Tomahawk from Japanese coastal waters in the direction of PRC to prove it is serious about an N-umbrella for Japan?

0230 GMT April 12, 2010

· Debka.com insists US SLBM fired from Saudi waters This is a most peculiar story, even by Debka.com's standards. The blog says that on April 1 a US submarine launched missile was fired from Saudi waters in the direction of Iran. The blog says it doesn't know the type of missile, or the type of the submarines, or if the missile was launched from the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Sea. http://debka.com/article/8689/

· We don't have to wonder what type of missile or submarine, because the US now maintains only Trident/Ohio boats. But first, why on earth would the US send a Trident boat into Saudi territorial waters? The D5 missile has a 7000-km range, and the idea is that you hide the submarine in the deep ocean. Each boat is highly valuable, particularly as the US has steadily reduced its N-launchers.

· The boat is 19,000-tons submerged, and has a 42-foot beam and 38-foot draught. It is 516-feet long. In other words, this is not a rubber duckie, it is a whacking huge warship. No one in their right mind wants to send a Trident boat into confined coastal waters, and there is absolutely no need to send it anywhere near any shore, given the range of its missiles.

· Next, launching an SLBM in the direction of Iran - which is just up the street in maritime terms, would be a horribly dangerous affair. Where would the missile impact? In the Pacific, presumably. But why would the US do something so insanely provocative as fire an SLBM from Russia's maritime backyard, and have it fly over half of Asia including possibly parts of China?

· Debka.com ties the launch to the US assuring its Gulf allies they are covered by the US N-umbrella. Well, Canada is covered by the US N-umbrella too, and the US doesn't send SSBNs to conduct launches in Canadian territorial waters to assure Canada. Germany is covered by the US N-umbrella as is most of Western Europe; but you don't see strategic missile boats staging launches off Hamburg or Kiel. Japan is covered by the US N-umbrella, and last we heard, the US had never, ever fired a strategic missile from Japanese territorial water toward China.

· You're going to ask: why is Orbat.com picking on Debka who no one takes seriously, and is just a self-offered tool for the Israeli military's hard right wing. By this we mean the Israeli military does not subsidize or use Debka, the Israelis are not that silly.

· We're picking on it because one way or another, Israel being a small country where everyone is related to everyone, Debka.com is in a position to give the world genuine information about Israeli security issues. we are not saying top-level Israelis make a habit of calling Debka.com to discuss the latest differences of opinion in the Israeli defense ministry. But given the small country and that most male Israelis have been or are in the military, active or reserve, Debka could be providing valuable insights. Look at the Indian blog http://ajaishukla.blogspot.com - we were told a few days ago it is run by a former tank officer who now writes for a business paper. The blog, Broadsword, has no sensational disclosures about high policy and secret Indian plans or whatever. It is simply solid reporting on practical Indian military matters that no civilian would have access to. What the blogger may not know because he was an armor officer, he carefully learns by talking to experts before he gives his news or his opinion.

· Debka.com could be doing the same for Israel. It's a real shame that it doesn't.

0230 GMT April 11, 2010

· Other ex-Soviet "Stans" also ripe for revolt warns the UK Independent. It says that in all five, at independence former Communist Party bosses simply continued running things as before. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/trouble-in-the-stans-which-is-the-next-country-to-blow-up-1941265.html

· Meanwhile, in Kyrgyzstan the interim leader says that though she has offered the deposed President safe passage out of the country, popular opinion wants him tried in court. This may be an attempt to get the deposed President to resign and quickly leave.

· The deposed Prez apparently looted the State treasury before taking off. The interim governments says less than $22-million was found in the treasury.

· US has again suspended flights from Manas Air Base, citing security concerns.

· Indian police refused to train at Army's jungle warfare college says the reputable Indian defense blog Broadsword. Three other paramilitary organizations deputed to the anti-Maoist operations put 12 battalions through the program. (The college is a different institution from the Indian Army's Jungle Warfare and CI center.) But the Central Reserve Police Force refused to attend.

· The blog says till the recent disaster, CI forces were doing reasonably well in the anti-Maoist campaign, killing 42 insurgents for the loss of 4 personnel; IED attacks had also come down.

· http://ajaishukla.blogspot.com/search?updated-min=2010-01-01T00%3A00%3A00%2B05%3A30&updated-max=2011-01-01T00%3A00%3A00%2B05%3A30&max-results=49

· The three other organizations are the Border Security Force, Indo-Tibet Border Police, and Shashtra Seema Bal. The first two are technically police organizations because they have arrest powers which the regular Army does not have. But they are trained on military lines, and are expected to undertake offensive operations on minor axes in wartime, and to support the Army in defensive operations. The CRPF is a pure armed police organization. In India the regular police are generally unarmed, except officers carry revolvers.

· Meanwhile, according to the above blog, the Indian Air Force has already warned the Government that use of air power in insurgency is a blunt instrument, killing innocents and insurgents alike. Just like the Army, the IAF has no wish to become involved in air offensives against insurgents.

0230 GMT April 10, 2010

· Indian Maoist attack on police More details have emerged on the incident in India where 75 policemen were killed in an ambush. The number of attackers was not 1000, says the government, but 350, backed by 200 village supporters. Though many of the armed police did suffer casualties from mines, the fight went on for two hours and ended only when the police ran out of ammunition. The Maoists then shot the wounded, stripped the bodies, and took the weapons. The seven who survived played dead and might well have not made it but for reinforcements that interrupted the Maoists. The attackers exchanged fire with the reinforcements, but no casualties resulted, at least on the police side.

· The Army has not-so-obliquely said that the men of the 62nd Central Reserve Police Force Battalion were neither properly trained nor properly equipped. The Home Ministry has denied this was the case. Both sides are correct. You cannot expect an armed police battalion to be trained/equipped as well as - say - the border troops. The police were as well trained, or as inadequately trained/equipped, as would be the case for a force that is primarily used for riot duty and checkpoint controls. Some CRPF battalions have been trained by the army to a higher standard, the 62nd was not one of these.

· Obviously police forces on CI operations will have to be better trained and given much heavier firepower.

· At least the government is reviewing its policy of not letting Indian Air Force helicopter crews return fire when under attack on supply and casualty evacuation missions. This is not a question of unleashing gunships against the Maoists, it really is the case that crews cannot fire back with any weapons.

· Interim Kyrgyzstan government says no to talks with the deposed President. The former foreign minister, who has taken over as interim leader, says the deposed president can have safe passage out of the country for himself, but nothing else.

· There are suspicions that Russia may have played a role in the President's ouster because the latter continued to work with the Americans, particularly on the Manas Air Base which US uses as part of its Afghan air bridge. No need to get angry at the Russians, after all, Kyrgyzstan was part of their country till recently, and they cannot be expected to take kindly to an airbase.

· Brown dwarf discovered within 10-light-years of our sun which suggests there may be many more even closer. This fellow has a temperature between 130-230 Centigrade and is the coldest ever seen. New Scientist says it emits 0.000026 percent energy as our sun, and that to in infrared, which is likely the reason it hasn't been spotted earlier.

0230 GMT April 9, 2010

· Kyrgyzstan President Hangs On This is more like it: enough wimpiness from the dictator set. The President did not flee the country, but instead flew to Osh, a region where he has supporters. He told Al Jazeera he is still President, though he is willing to talk to the opposition leader who has assumed interim powers. He did have the sense to admit to other media that he had no power at this time.

· The World Really Is Coming To An End The New York Times carries an article that explains the psychology of men under fire. This is in the context of the now-viral video showing a US helicopter attacking civilians and journalists the crew took to be armed militants.

· Much to our very great surprise, the article also cited the all-important issue of context. When you and I look at the video, we see a photog with a shoulder camera. But when a helicopter crew in a combat zone is looking every which way for danger, they saw a man with a shoulder-fired SAM launcher or perhaps an RPG. Either of which could kill the helicopter and its crew. And there is no way the helicopter crew is going to wait around to see if its really is a threat or something benign, because if you are wrong, you die.

· We all know this. But that the NYT of all people should bother to write an informed article on the subject beggars belief.

· http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/08/world/08psych.html?src=me&ref=world

· People see what they are predisposed to see. And one characteristic of humans as much as animals is that when they are in danger, they get tunnel vision: they stop seeing everything that is irrelevant to their immediate survival. This is a physiological response and nothing you have control over. Its a survival mechanism, because if you go: "oh my goodness, that could be a camera, it could be someone carrying a plumbing tube on their shoulder, it could be X or Y", if you see wrong, nature will sort you out. Your genes will not survive, the man who did not wait a second to look for another explanation and fired to kill first is the one whose genes gets passed on. This is particularly true of combat pilots, where their speed over the battlefield is a huge, huge complication.

· Al-Sadr wants to ally with neither leading party which makes sense if you look at the situation through his sick eyes. Malaki was an ally who turned on him him, so he has no love for Malaki. Allawi is a secular candidate with significant Sunni support. Al-Sadr wants to extirpate Sunnis from Iraq. So its no go on Allawi either. Al-Sadr's preferred candidate is al-Jafari, another former PM. No need to guess this is because Jafari must have promised Sadr the most in return for his support. That's politics.

· China-India We've received several letters from enthusiasts wanting to "play" with the new Indian orbat in the North. But Editor would advise against that. The Indian Army, understandably enough, has a very different institutional outlook based on its history, psychology, political leadership etc etc than from what you or I might assume as enthusiast war gamers. Editor has four decades of experience studying the Indian Army, and to this day there are many things about the way they think and operate that he doesn't know or fully appreciate.

· Editor tried to explain this to the worthy members of Bharat-Rakshak Forum during the 2001-2002 Parakram crisis. BRF was going all gung-ho about moving this corps hither and that corps thither, and defeating the Pakistanis in no time flat. Editor tried to explain that none of this took into account how Indian and Pakistan Armies operate; more to the point, the understanding of military operations of enthusiasts was non-existent. BRF members just did not understand the risks the Indians faced with every course of action they were suggesting.

· BRF was pretty annoyed, saying Editor spent his life saying how this was very difficult and that was very difficult. But really, large-scale combat between two - or in this case three - huge land armies is very difficult and fraught with enormous risk at every stage. There's a reason WWI went on four four years, and WW2 for six, and Vietnam for 7 (Main US engagement period), and Iraq 2 for five, and Afghanistan for going on 10. Its easy for you and me to say the army should do X, Y, or Z, but we are not responsible for the consequences. Military people think ten times before using force, and after they've decided to use force, they look at it ten times again.

· The sole exception is the US in the post-Soviet Union phase because it faces no enemies it cannot destroy quickly. But when Soviet Union was around, does anyone think it was a coincidence that the Americans and Russians were very, very, very cautious about any situation which could lead to trouble between them? Sure the N-weapons were a big restraint. Even without them, however, caution was the word.

· After WW2 ended, some Americans - Patton being the best-known among them, - foretold it was better to continue the war and finish off the Soviet Union while it could be done, because US would have to fight the Soviets sooner or later. He was right, but 90% of American and we are sure 99% of British generals didn't want to take the enormous, open-ended risks that would ensue. Can we honestly say they were wrong to be cautious?

· The best use of military power is its non-use. You should be able to get everything you want without firing a single shot by convincing the opponent he loses no matter what he does. At one stage, in medieval times, that's how wars were fought. Armies would maneuver as on a chess-board, a few conclusions would be tried, and one side or the other would concede. They were not being cowards, they were being sensible. In modern times World War I is perhaps the best example of how the actual down-spiral to war gained no one anything.

· So that India has four more mountain divisions and is likely to get at least three more, perhaps even more, should not be an occasion for anyone to think of war. Instead, India should be working to convince the Chinese, look, no matter what you do, there is no good outcome for you. So you may as well back off.

· If you look at things this way, you'll see what's happening between the west and Iran is war by other means. Not a shot has been fired, but both sides are maneuvering to show the other: "Do your worst, you're gonna lose. So don't start".

0230 GMT April 8, 2010

· Revolution in Kyrgyzstan Editor is quite disconsolate. What is the world coming to? A few demonstrators, perhaps less than ten thousand, have forced the dictator to flee, in two days of demonstrations. Dictator took off in a small plane. Prime Minister has resigned, and the revolutionaries have announced they have formed a provisional government.

· About 100 people have been killed, though the toll is expected to rise as there were reports that police and demonstrators were still fighting into Wednesday night.

· It's a sad day indeed when dictators can be overthrown so easily and with so little fuss. No spine, these modern dictators.

· India approves two more divisions The first two are raised and are in Eastern Command, though of course it will take two years at least for them to shake down. Now the Indian press reports that two more divisions have been approved, starting with a divisional HQ, some division troops and a brigade each, and then built up. These two will go to Ladakh. The Army has requested even more divisions.

· At this point, we'd like both China to take a deep breath and figure out what it has gained by belligerence.

· India previously had ten divisions dedicated to the China front, though at least two more could be quickly inducted.

· Now India has not only added four new divisions, a strike corps has been reoriented to counter any China thrust tthrough Nepal. Which is a polite way of saying India now has an option to attack south Tibet through Nepal. That makes a 40% increase in dedicated forces, and a doubling of contingency forces. India can now deploy 18 divisions against Tibet.

· The Chinese had been able to reduce their strength in Northwest Tibet to almost nothing, except for border troops. They will now face the prospect of having to either increase substantially their NW Tibet deployments, or stage a counteroffensive against Northeast India to balance territory lost in the Northwest.

· But wait - as the Count says, there's more. Since the first two divisions have gone to the Northeast, China would face 9 and not seven divisions without Eastern Command calling for reinforcements.

· Further, by 2015 India is likely to at least three more divisions against China.

· Does China really need this additional grief? India had, in fact, keeled over to think of England in Winter, vis-a-vis the China border. The Chinese offered permanent peace, India accepted, and for 15 years ignored the northern border. But the Chinese couldn't just let things be. They pushed and pushed and pushed India.

· The Indians will say, in their usual passive-defensive way: "Don't blame us, you made us do it," and for once Editor has to agree. The Indians are not at fault, the Chinese are.

· BTW, India spends 2% of its $1.5-trillion GDP on defense. It has plenty of room to spend even more, both as a percentage and in absolute terms as its economy grows.

· Isn't $1.5-trillion way off the official figure of $1.2-trillion? Well, here's the odd thing. India has been using NNI in place of GDP, and for every country NNI is less than GDP. Since everyone now uses GDP, we should for India too.

· Also BTW, readers should realize even $1.5-trillion way understates India's actual economy, a huge part of which escapes count because it evades taxes. People have correctly pointed out that that's the case in China too. But compared to India, China is very tightly governed. Whatever part of the Chinese economy escapes being counted, as a percentage of GDP it has to be much smaller than for India.

0230 GMT April 7, 2010

· Maoists kill 75 paramilitary police in ambush Editor has spent the whole day trying to formulate a comment that would explain this fiasco to our non-South Asian readers, and he has failed.

· Our South Asian readers need no explanation: they know this is the way India works.

· First, the Government sits passively as Maoists extend their presence from approximately 1 county in 10, primarily in the rural/tribal poverty struck regions of Central and East India, to one third of the counties in the country. This took the Maoists a mere six years. All this time an insurgency is going on and hundreds of police and rebels are being killed. The police are short of training, sensors, vehicles, arms, ammunition, and everything you can think of, but Government of India can't be bothered with petty details like that.

· Then the Government wakes up, declares the Maoists the greatest threat to Indian security, and offers talks. Except for closing the barn door after the horses, goats, rats and cockroaches have fled, this was the correct approach. Whatever it is they have done, these people are Indians and the Government was 100% correct not to unleash the Army on them. Many of their arms originate from China, and are smuggled through Bangladesh and Nepal, but there are no foreigners operating with the insurgents. Even the Government concedes the Maoists are raising legitimate social and economic issues.

· Well, the Maoists figure they have nothing to gain by talks, especially since Government is calling on them to abjure violence as part of the negotiations. So they say: "fugabhatit".

· Government inducts reinforcements and sets out to "clean out" some of the Maoist strongholds, and announces progress and the usual kind of stupid claims that of late we have come to associate with the Pakistan in its "battle" with the Taliban.

· So the Maoists stage a carefully planned ambush - and this was indeed a complex operation. Several hundred of the, perhaps even 1000, keep watch as police columns penetrate their strongholds. In accordance with standard Indian CI doctrine, each morning the Indians sweep road for mines that may have been planted the night before. Somewhere between 6 and 7 AM local, one reduced company of the police is returning from its sweep duties, setting the stage for additional police to enter with their vehicles, supplies, and so on. There is a single MPV with the road-opening company, with a single driver.

· The MPV is hit by a mine, the police scatter for cover, and find that every place they flee to is mined, and that they are open to devastating fire from Maoists that are hidden all over the jungle.

· When a reinforcement company reaches, there is nothing left to do except carry off the dead - 75 of 82 men, and evacuate the 7 survivors. As one of the survivors said, the police company didn't have a chance.

· The survivor asks why was the under strength company on its own, when it is known the Maoists attack in groups of 500.

· Good question, and India's answer, of course, is: "we are shocked, shocked, sorry about that."

· After all, who cares. These are just police, after all, of no consequence. The police have been getting killed and killed, and no one was bothered then, why start now?

· So now we have the usual calls for vengeance, retribution, punishment, the whole nine meters What Editor is very worried about is that the Army will be ordered to send in the Rashtriya Rifles, the specialized all-army CI force. Just two days ago the Army said it didn't want to be involved in operations against the Maoists, but the Indian Army is not the US Army. It does not have political allies, and it cannot leak and manipulate the media. There is a very, very strict convention that the civil government is the ultimate authority, there is no question of the Army objecting or refusing.

· Please to note: the three Service chiefs were at the meeting the Minister for Home conveyed after the fiasco.

· For all that the Prime Minister and his Cabinet should be held responsible for the expansion of Maoist influence, the Prime Minister is undoubtedly right when he says there is no military solution to this problem. At the same time, when 500-1000 insurgents can get together and defeat a sizeable force of security personnel so easily - even if they are only armed police, than like it or not, the problem has a security dimension.

· We will wait and see what happens next.

· Turkish official alleges US has 100 N-warheads in Turkey Now, Editor didn't hear the first part of this CBS story (0830 Eastern Time) as he was backing out of the driveway, so he didn't quite get who the official is, and he couldn't find the story on the cbsnews.com site either. But the official is supposed to have said that the warheads are under dual-key control, and are not at an airbase, but inside the city of Istanbul and other places along the Black Sea Coast!!??

· Before we comment we'd like to get the story right, so if anyone knows anything, please let us know.

· Editor supports President Obama's no first-use against non-nuclear states that are not developing N-weapons. The security hawks may grumble about US security being compromised, but it is a critical step toward improving US non-proliferation credibility: which is about minus 100% right now.

· Hawks need not worry, DPRK and Iran are specifically rule out of the no-first-use promise. But let's be realistic, folks. If US ever used n-weapons first for any reason except to avoid a decisive military defeat on its home territory, it would be all over. US would become the world's pariah nation.

0230 GMT April 6, 2010

Details of Taliban attack on US Peshawar Consulate http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/04/taliban_assault_on_u.php

· We disagree with media and US experts who say - National Public Radio, for example - this this was a complex attack requiring months of planning. This was an exceedingly stupid attack and the ease with it was stopped proves as much. How can two vehicles suffice to breach such a well-defended target? We've said this before, we'll say this again. When you compare the Taliban to the Viet Cong's sappers, you realize the Taliban haven't graduated from pre-school. They are astonishingly inept, and a good thing too.

· In a way, calling such attacks "complex" and "well-planned" or whatever shows the very low expectations we have of the Taliban. Anything that is more complicated than some blithering idiot blowing himself up in a crowd of unprotected civilians is considered complex.

· President Karzai on joining the Taliban We didn't bother reading the details of President Karazai's rant after the US President's visit because who wants to waste the time. Apparently he said that if US doesn't stop pushing him around he would join with the Taliban to eject the foreigners.

· Hahahahaha. Or at least one "Ha", because it's not particularly witty. It's pathetic and lame and 1st Grade stuff. There are sound reasons no one makes Editor a diplomat, but had he been the US President he would offer the Presidential helicopter to take Mr. Karzai to the Taliban in comfort and safety. The Taliban, of course, would execute Mr. Karzai on the spot, but that's not the US's problem.

· It's fine for the Afghan President to be disgruntled with his real bosses in Washington, but statements such as he has made do not sit well with the hundreds of thousands of military families who have made big sacrifices to free Afghanistan of the Taliban, nor with the tens of millions of taxpayers who have laid out a fortune over the last nine years only to see everything come to naught because of the incompetence of the Afghan President and his henchpersons.

· China mine rescue Readers know China is not the Editor's favorite country. Nonetheless, the 153 trapped miners are human first and Chinese second. We offer our admiration for the fortitude the miners showed, and we congratulate both the Government of China and the rescuers for their efficiency and dedication.

0230 GMT April 5, 2010

· Senior Indian political advisor: CIA set up Taliban At Editor's age, he's seen quite a few conspiracy theories. His favorite is one floated by the USSR that the US had created the AIDS virus to destroy Soviet forces in Germany. That was not just absurd, it was hilarious, whereas the one reader Vikhr Kradiac sent us is just plain absurd, and perhaps a little sad.

· According to this gentleman http://pakobserver.net/detailnews.asp?id=23514 the US set up the Taliban and helped them take Kabul, all in support of the Clinton's interest in an oil company.

· We first suspected a Pakistan disinfo job to discredit the Indian advisor, who belongs to the BJP - which tends to be hard-line toward Pakistan - at least in words. Like every other Indian political party the BJP doesn't have the courage to actually do something about Pakistan.

· Nope, says reader Vikhr, there are other Indians including an official of the Intelligence Bureau, which is responsible for internal intelligence in India, who have argued the same thing.

· We are now waiting for an Indian politician or official to now tell us how 9/11 was staged by the US, how the US is behind the Somali Shabab, how it supports AQ in Yemen, and how Osama Bin Laden has been a US agent since he was in short pants, and the reason he can't be find is that he lives in the pleasant Washington DC suburb of Arlington, Virginia. During the day he works in Room 1112, Building F, at CIA HQ in Langley. His job is to advise the US President on health care, in support of the CIA's objective to destroy the US president and put in his place a President who will allow drilling in the Alaska Wildlife Refuge. By this token, another US operation is Op Hugo, which put Mr. Chavez into power, and the US is also behind the populist revolt in Bolivia, so that the peasants can seize the oil fields and hand them over to Mrs. Samuel Perez, who as we all know, is the Jewish front for Mrs. Clinton's oil company. The Haiti earthquake was engineered by a CIA front working for Bill and Hilary; again with the objective of controlling off-shore drilling rights in that region.

· In case you think you've spotted a flaw in this story, i.e., why would CIA back Hugo, you are being very silly. Everyone knows the Clintons want Hugo to destroy Venezuelan oil output, and then the Clintons' oil company will take over.

· By the way, anyone notice the subtlety in the acronym "CIA"? As everyone knows, it stands for "Clinton Intelligence Agency."

· Another hominid species discovered The South African discovery features intact skeletons and several individuals. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/science/biology_evolution/article7087670.ece

· Youngsters who want to be spies should read this http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/forget-bond-mi5-wanted-its-spies-short-and-static-1936012.html

· This you need to read: if we just tell you, you won't believe us http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201004040181.html

0230 GMT April 4, 2010

· Rumors that PRC may permit a small Yuan revaluation soon. Meanwhile a ferocious fight is underway between those American economists/business people who say America needs to get its house in order and not blame China and those who say undervalued Yuan is costing America jobs.

· Our small contribution to this debate: (a) why are those American corporate interests who migrated millions, if not tens of millions, of jobs to China not being strung up in the streets; and (b) why are those US government bureaucrats, politicians, and corporate people who say US doesn't need an industrial policy not being strung up ion the streets? If NAFTA, WAFTA, SHAFTA, and HAFTA etc. are supposed to bring prosperity to America, how come standards of living for ordinary Americans have remained all but stagnant for 40 years?

· We have no problem with bashing China and happily join in whenever possible. At the same time, how can you blame China for taking advantage of America when a bunch of greedy, corrupt corporate types sold American workers down the river to make more money in China? We've mentioned the WalMart syndrome: those who work at WalMart cannot afford to buy their consumer goods from WalMart because the company pays its workers so little. So how long before we all end up at minimum wage?

· US has a true unemployment rate at over 16%. So what precisely is it that makes us that much better than the Greeks or whoever?

· It doesn't matter if the Yuan is revalued because Americans will still not be able to sell to China. The latter will raise all sorts of non-tariff barriers. More to the point, the Chinese are absolutely determined to move up the manufacturing chain. They are NOT going to buying Boeing jetliners ten years down the line.

· We've explained giving the example of Wisconsin that America is becoming a commodity producer for China because there is no end to the amount of agricultural goods and industrial raw materials that China needs.

0230 GMT April 3, 2010

· Afghanistan President has another hissy fit Everything is the West's fault, the West is working to diminish him and his authority, they rigged they election against him and so on.

· Look people, all that happened is a few days ago President Obama read Mr. Karzai the riot act about cleaning up his act or else. What the or else is, is of course not discussed, because there is no or else.

· Among the things Mr. Karzai has been trying to do is to exert control over Afghanistan's election commission so that next time he stuffs the ballot boxes there's no one to complain to. Parliament has solidly rebuffed him, which shows that democracy has caught on in the country even if it has not caught on with the President.

· The only thing that amazes us is the US actually thinks its going to get an honest government in Afghanistan. Can US tell us how many years it took to get honest government in the US after independence? Can it tell us how many dirt poor countries have honest governance? In the US the ordinary citizen does not face corrupt officials to - say - file taxes, get a telephone connection, get a driver's license, get his kid into school, obtain a building permit and so on. That's because bureaucrats at all levels are decently paid. That is not the case in Afghanistan and indeed in the third world in general and even in the second world. But when you get to top levels of US government and Congress and and so on, US had best remember the adage about glass houses and stones.

· We are not defending Mr. Karzai. He has sinned twice because he is inept AND corrupt, which is the worst possible situation. We're saying US should avoid getting into situations where out of nothing a functioning, honest, and effective government is to be built.

· And in any case, why is the US getting agitated now when it's coming time to leave? Any idiot can tell the US's exit strategy is build on a fantasy, that Afghan security forces will suddenly become honest and effective, and that local government - which has barely existed - will become honest and effective. Having created the fantasy, shouldn't the US play along with it?

· USAF to cut 250 combat aircraft this year to save $3.5-billion over the next five years. Jeez Louise. Why stop there: why not cut every last combat, trainer, transport, and support aircraft from the force and send everyone home. That will save a whole bunch of money right quick. http://defensenews.com/story.php?i=4566507&c=AME&s=AIR

· Russian Navy gets 1 corvette in last ten years says a former commander of the Northern Fleet who is now a parliamentarian. He says though one 4000-ton frigate of a new class is under construction, there is no provision for large surface warships out to 2015. http://en.rian.ru/mlitary_news/20091127/157008667.html

· Correction on DDG 47 Reader David reminds us the frigate is the USS Nichols, not Nicholson. We're a bit confused because some reports are saying the Nichols was attacked at night, but 1227 is not night. Unless that is a type and should read 0227. Which would then raise the question of why on earth would pirates attack a ship in complete darkness when they can't see a thing.

0230 GMT April 2, 2010

· World needs to help Somali pirates Yet again, the pirates attacked a warship, this time the USS Nicholson (FFG-47), and it being 1227 local time, this was in broad daylight. Their skiff, plus a mother ship, was sunk and the pirates captured.

· We need to get together to start a fund to buy spectacles for the pirates. Or else we have to put them into drug rehab so they can at least see straight.

· Meanwhile, the French have released the pirates they captured the other day.

· Also meanwhile, Kenya says it will stop accepting captured pirates for trial. We remain wholly unclear why the west is refusing to try the pirates in their own home countries. All you need is to send a few to jail, in the US, for example, and after a few weeks let them call home so they can relate the realities of life in an American prison. That will certainly encourage the others to think twice.

· In our personnel opinion, when anyone attacks a US warship, it is an act of war. The pirates are not entitled to any rules of war, except the rule that says you get to swim 1000-km back home.

· Reader Luxembourg suggests Editor continue banging his head He forwards an article, which has links to a video, which shows a US congressperson is worried that the shift of 8000 military personnel to Guam will cause "the whole island (to) become so overly populated it will tip over and capsize." http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/Dumbest-Congressman-Ever--89652542.html#ixzz0jqoa1sJ3

· The Congressperson, according to his office, also fears that: Future missions to the moon will cause Earth's satellite to "go all crazy and spin out of orbit"; drilling in the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge will mean "heavy drilling equipment will cause the poles to shift and Kansas City will end up as the new North Pole"; excessive use of the office microwave will cause "the oxygen in the oven to interact with the atmosphere, making it overheat and burn away."

· Fortunately for the Editor's aching head, there may be an explanation. The Congressperson suffers from Hepatitis C, which leads to confusion. Which them raises a question: should this person be a Congressperson?

· PS: Person is a Democrat.

· U-Penn inquiry clears climate-change scientist of 3 charges but did not rule on the science of climate change, which it said is something better dealt with by the profession. The scientist was cleared of (a) conspiring to withhold data from competing scientists; (b) manipulating data in favorable ways - the "trick" email, which was not sent by him but by a colleague, and (c) destroying or hiding data - the scientist, Dr. Michael Mann, produced the missing data.

· The 3-person inquiry referred a fourth charge to an separate board: did Dr. Mann's behavior undermine public faith in the science of climate change?

· Because the inquiry was not independent, we doubt it will convince climate change skeptics. An outside inquiry would have better served the purpose. Further, we're amused that after saying he could not find data, he produced it at the inquiry. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/04/science/earth/04climate.html

· Meanwhile another scientist has come up with a more finely calibrated "hockey stick" using different methods. The hockey stick refers to the sudden jump in average temperatures between 45 and 85 Degrees North in the 20th Century. 1995 was the hottest year on record. This researcher is careful to note that the 1600 AD change was the largest rate of change to take place yet. Appell, D. (November 2009). Still hotter than ever. Scientific American Vol. 301 No. 5, pp. 21-22.

· None of this answers the question: if climate change is taking place, do we understand the mechanisms well enough to combat the change by spending trillions of dollars? As an example, we carried mention of a paper the other day which said warming over China and India is caused not by C02 and the standard suspects, but by soot from open-air burning of coal. The soot stays in the atmosphere only for weeks, and getting rid of such burning - which would cost a few billions - could cool China/India.

· Request to readers Anyone spot a Pakistan 2nd Cavalry Regiment or new/newish regiments with the numbers 1 and 3? Like the Indians did in 1985, the Pakistanis in the 1990s filled in a number of their missing regiments, the ones that went to India - 7, 8, 9, 14 and 18 for example - usually by changing the suffix, replacing "Lancers" with Horse or Cavalry for example. The Indians named their missing regiments - 5, 6, 10, 11, 12, 13, and 19 as Armored Regiments. So with new raisings under way in Pakistan, restoring 1, 2, and 3 is logical. But has it happened? we have one reliable report of a 2nd Cavalry, but in this game there is reliable and there is reliable. Even the most reliable source needs to be cross-verified by at least one other reliable source, preferably two.

0230 GMT April 1, 2010

For details and background of the suicide attacks in Russia, read http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/03/the_leader_of_the_ca.php

· Time to bash one's head against a stone wall New York Times says that the US push to put 30,000 troops in Afghanistan while withdrawing 50,000 from Iraq represents "one of the largest" movements of men and material since World War II. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/01/world/01logistics.html?ref=world

· This is what passes for news with the mainstream media.

· Does NYT remember - in reverse order - Gulf II, Gulf I, Second Indochina and Korea? Guess not. In Second Indochina, at the peak US was moving more than half a million men into the theatre every year and half a million out of the theater every year. As for the tonnage, we've never seen figures, but when you have three-quarters of a million soldiers, sailors, and airmen in a war theatre, we'd wager some gonzo tonnages were being moved.

· In Gulf I, in something over a year the US moved 700,000 military personnel into and then out of the theatre.

· Another US media favorite is power generation. Because media assumes readers's brains are as pathetically fragile as its own, it will 9 times of ten say "that's enough power for x number of homes". Generally it calculates out to 1-KW installed capacity per home. Now, US - back-of-envelope - has 3-KW installed for every child, woman, and man in the country. But homes are not the major users of US power. Its industrial and commercial that uses the bulk. If you counted 1-KW per home, the minute the home owner switched on her washer/dryer, or her electric range, or her airconditioning, you would blow the fuse. Long ago editor gave up writing to the WashPo on the subject because WashPo never paid any mind - and we're sure lots of other people have also written in saying the same thing.

· The other day WashPo had an elaborate graphic to illustrate how much debris there is in Haiti after the earthquake. It was beautifully drawn, using the Mall as a base and said the debris if laid out on the Mall would be so many feet high. But what it sought to convey no one can tell because - great surprise - Americans don't say "oooh, that's 200-foot-Mallsl" because - believe it or not, there is no standard unit saying "1 foot-Mall is the Mall covered to 1 foot". Anyone at the WashPo heard of cubic yards or cubic meters? Apparently not.

· Iran N-Scientist defection to US A reader says the reason we didn't find the story in yesterday's media is that it is an old story. He suggests reading http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/03/30/the_mystery_of_irans_nuclear_defector

0230 GMT March 31, 2010

· Iran N-scientist defected to US says Jang of Pakistan quoting ABC News. We did not see the item on ABC, Reuters, or BBC. The scientist disappeared in 2009 and Iran accused the US of responsibility. While Jang calls him a "leading scientist", he is only in his early 30s and may not have been in a position where he had authentic information about matters outside his own section or department. Nonetheless, if the news is correct, it represents a coup for the US.

· Pakistan Supreme Court says it will issue arrest warrants against the head anti-corruption official unless within 24 hours he starts reopening cases against those granted immunity under the controversial National Reconciliation Order. The NRO was negotiated to permit Mrs. Bhutto and her husband to return to Pakistan. Since that was likely one of the last things the then President General Musharraf wanted, the speculation is the US played a major backstage role in negotiating the order. It also applied to several thousand bureaucrats and politicians - the major beneficiaries being Mrs. Bhutto's party. The order was not extended to former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his brother. Since Mr. Sharif was Mrs. Bhutto chief rival, but with a reputation for being anti-American, the so called National Reconciliation Order should be more accurately terms the Bhutto/PPP Reconciliation Order.

· Be that as it may, when President Zaradari reinstated Supreme Court justices sacked by former President Musharraf - with considerable reluctance - the Pakistan Supreme Court promptly ordered the NRO void.

· If this game plays through, a lot of Bhutto people are going to be disqualified from public office and it's unclear who will take their place because like India, and like most of the world, no politician has particularly clean hands. US can take no satisfaction about clean hands: US legalized political corruption by permitting candidates to raise vast amounts of money, and saying little about deals politicians make with their donors. So US politicians may not be breaking the law, but that doesn't make them superior to an Indian or a Pakistani politician. Indeed, we maintain the latter at least are honest about admitting they are corrupt, something American politicians are not.

· The question also is what happens to the President. Supreme Court says it has not been approached to reopen cases of the President's foreign accounts and assets, but he also faces several cases of domestic corruption.

· In our opinion, what happens to the Prez is irrelevant since in any case he is being reduced to a figurehead. US never had any particular interest in him - the focus was on his wife, due to her lobbyists in the west. And further in any case, US has reconciled itself to the open resumption of the Army's role as final arbiter of power in Pakistan. Not that that took particularly long. US interest in Pakistani democracy was an aberration.

· Before anyone thinks we are beating up the US, we've always maintained that at least in the case of Pakistan US had, and has, no business interfering in its internal affairs. Given the unfortunate example of South Vietnam, we think when a country is in a civil war, as is Pakistan, the US would do best to stay out of internal affairs. It's one thing to support and promote democracy from the outside, and another to pick favorites by manipulation domestic politics. Yes to the former, no to the latter. Again, nothing to with principles, just practicality.

· Talking about beating up, Editor thinks he's lost the right to beat up on the Indian defense procurement system for its absurdities which result in billions of authorized but unspent dollar each year, and which see programs delayed by decades. The Editor's "it's deja vu all over again" moment came when he read in Defense News that the USAF tanker program is again to be rebid. http://defensenews.com/story.php?i=4561549&c=AME&s=TOP

· And talking about making fun of here is a legitimate reason to make fun of US Army logistics. They've figured out a brilliant new way to ship MRAPs to Afghanistan: ship them to West Asia and then fly them to Afghanistan. Instead of what? Instead of flying them directly from the US. Gwarsh, these logistics people are geniuses pure and simple. And it took them only nine years to figure this out? Amazing. Oh yes, they also figured out it was cheaper than flying them all the way. Will wonders never cease.

· Least you think we are making this up, read http://defensenews.com/story.php?i=4544635&c=ASI&s=LAN

· The other thing they figured out the other day is that you can use C-130s to fly urgent in-theatre cargo in Iraq. This will reduce the strain on the CH-47s. But wasn't the Hercules used for just this role in Second Indochina which ended 35-years ago? And there was no shortage of CH-47s at the time.

· Also, wasn't the C-130 in the first place designed as an assault transport? Isn't that the reason the designers gave it a phenomenal rough/short field capability, which we are told is still unmatched for an aircraft that size, fifty years later?

· By the way, remember US was going to land and take-off a C-130 as part of the Iran hostages rescue - in a sports stadium in downtown Teheran. One wonders how much is not known to this day about this aircraft's STOL performance. Add the C-17 to the list of remarkable aircraft.

0230 GMT March 30, 2010

Two female suicide bombers kill 37 in Moscow
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/03/female_suicide_bombe_3.php

· South Korea says a leftover mine from the 1950-53 War might have sunk its corvette, though an accidental explosion is not ruled out.

· For those who think US persecutes Muslims the news that 8 Christian extremists are under arrest must come as a disappointment. And whatever the US may have done to Muslims, there is simply no comparison with Waco, Texas. Those arrested two days ago are said to have planned to kill a police officer, and then bomb his funeral - very small beer compared to some Islamic extremist plots such as the World Trade Center and the failed Detroit plane bomber.

· What foreigners don't understand is that US law enforcement people, prosecutors, judges, and jailors take themselves and their job very seriously. You can get killed simply for disrespecting a police officer or not complying with orders fast enough. The police do not care one little bit what color, religion, ethnicity, or nationality you are. They are amazingly aggressive, and when they shoot, it's to kill, not to disable.

· So we'd just like to tell Muslims, or Hindus, or Christians, or atheists, or aliens, do not take it personally when you do something wrong and American law enforcement come after you. And do not also take it personally if you haven't done anything wrong and they mistakenly come after you.

· After Ft. Hood, Editor is starting to wonder if it isn't the other way around, that if you're Muslim you get to be a lot crazier than if you were, say, a white man. The US Army officer involved was for months acting in ways that would have got him facing hard interrogation ten times over had he been other than Muslim.

· http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8593975.stm

· Readers should loom at this article http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/london/8593263.stm about the English doctrine of joint enterprise: if you band together to kill someone or to cause seriously bodily harm, it does not matter if you did not actively participate in the killing.

· Falklands British drillship come up empty after 30 days of work. Hydrocarbons are there, but not worth exploiting where the ship operated. It's likely drilling will have to be conducted at much greater depths.

· So the Argies may as well have saved their breath instead of looking to make an international crisis when the drilling was announced.

· This is the first time in 12 years that serious exploration has been done off the Falklands. Nine more well are to be dug this year.

· Bad boys really do get the girls Er, they needed a study to prove that? http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/why-women-really-do-love-selfobsessed-psychopaths-850007.html Before turning 30 Editor was a Bad Boy. Even though he was married, a date for Saturday night - or Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Sunday was never a problem. After 30, Editor turned Good Boy to keep the then latest Mrs. R. happy. Result? No dates for the next 35 years. Worse, Mrs. R the Fourth was herself so turned off being married to a Good Boy she took off for Bad Boy land. The irony of it all.

0230 GMT March 29, 2010

· Yellow Sea is 25-meter deep where ROK corvette sank This explains why the South Koreans are confident of raising the ship so quickly. Frogmen were to search the hull - part of which is above water - to check for survivors. Satellite and other intelligence shows no DPRK ship was in the area. Times London says DPRK has been very quiet about the incident. Meanwhile, South Koreans are getting very concerned about the Government's failure to release information, especially since half the crew including the crew was rescued.

· Fourth ancient human race found You can read the details in http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/science/biology_evolution/article7074975.ece if you haven't really, This reinforces Editor's belief that the reason we're here and not some other species of human is because we simply beat everyone else to death. Editor has also for long whimsically believed aliens have more to fear from us than we have to fear from aliens.

· The Worm Ouroboros Thoughts in Israel that it may need to reoccupy the Gaza Strip.

· Meanwhile, Israel's leaders fear that President Obama will impose a settlement with the Palestinians. Not to worry. First, US is incapable of getting an Israeli chicken to do what US wants. Second, give them enough time and the Palestinians will do something or the other incredibly stupid, allowing Israel an out.

· Also meanwhile, Haartez of Israel is talking of an Obama tradition - the Passover Seder. Apparently Mr. Obama's staff did a makeshift Seder when he was campaigning in 2008, and the President repeated the celebration when he became President. He will celebrate for the third time.

· Three times makes a tradition in Israeli eyes? Hello, people. The celebration commemorates the flight from Egyptian slavery. These events took place - er - a few thousand years ago, and we can be reasonably sure there is not one year in the past 3500 or whatever the Israelis have failed to celebrate Passover. That's a tradition, not three years.

· By the way, are we permitted to be impertinent and ask: Israelis say that Palestine is theirs by right of long residence, ignoring the small matter of 1900 years when they were in exile. But like all of us, didn't the Israelis come from somewhere else? In this case Egypt. Unless we read our Old Testament wrong, Palestine was fully settled and the Israelis had to fight numerous battles and wars to win territory. If Israelis have the right of right of return to Palestine, so do the people who lived there before the Israelis came.

· Since the Mom Of Us All is said to have lived in South Africa 200,000 years, Editor thinks he has a right of return too, there as well as Central Africa, the Horn, the Mideast, the Caucuses, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, that being the path his ancestors took to get to India.

· This is America Editor found his home telephone line was not working. The Verizon robot did a line check and said the problem was with Verizon's circuits. Expected date of tech's arrival: 11 days in the future.

0230 GMT March 28, 2010

US Navy/Marines have withdrawn from Haiti. 3,300 Army & Air Force personnel remain.

Iraqi Election Results: An Analysis
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/03/iraqi_election_resul.php

· ROK says torpedo not cause of sinking 46 crew are still missing from the corvette that sank. South Korea plans to raise the ship in about three weeks.

· Israeli tanks withdraw from Gaza says Jerusalem Post. Five tanks and two armored engineer vehicles spent Friday night in Gaza but withdrew Saturday.

· Two views on the Yuan We've been baffled by China's refusal to revalue the Yuan. As a major importer of raw materials and components, China would benefit from a revaluation. Much to our surprise, we learned from Washington Post yesterday that the official Chinese position refusing to revalue is only one view in China, that of the Commerce Ministry. Other opinions exist, saying revaluation will help China, not hurt.

· Commerce Ministry says the export profit margin is 1,7% and any increase in the Yuan's value will mean tens of millions of workers laid off. Here is one of those baffling figures that so frequently confront anyone looking at China. If 1.7% is the real margin, no Chinese export manufacturer in his right mind will manufacture anything, because he will get a greater return with no-hassle, and no risk, simply by buying fixed deposits.

· New Chinese hi-speed train forces shut-down of air traffic between Zhengzhou and Xian. The train covers the 505-km in a bit less than two hours, reaching a maximum 350-kmph. A flight takes a bit over two hours because the Xian Airport is an hour away from downtown. Airlines have suspended all passenger flights on the route as they can no longer compete. Interesting, don't you think?

· Increased infiltration in Kashmir Indian troops on Saturday killed six militants trying to infiltrate Indian Kashmir from the Pakistan Kashmir side. This was the third incident this week; three infiltrators were killed in the first two. Also, four militants died in two encounters elsewhere in Kashmir; the Army says they belong to the LeT.

· It isn't even proper spring and already Pakistan has started infiltrating - yet again - after a serious fall-off in incidents in 2009. Naturally the US will have nothing to say bar a few platitudes and pressure on the Indians not to retaliate. Since the US does nothing for India on the terrorism issue, we don't quite see the logic of India continuing to oblige the US by showing restraint.

· Of course, this also gives the Indians an excuse not to do anything, because the simple reality is the Indians are scared out of their undies at the thought of actually taking action. As for the way the US treats India, seeing as the Indians go around with a big "Please Kick Me" sign attached to their butts, you can't blame the Americans. Patriotic Indians should oblige their government and also join in the Kicking.

· The latest blowup between the two emerging allies is the US's great reluctance to even allow Indian officers to interrogate the convicted terrorist David Headly - he is a Pakistani originally, but changed his name to a Christian one to escape attention. He's one of the key people behind the Bombay 2008 attacks. Mr. Headly, we are told, began to sing entire operas after US agents told him his next stop was going to be India if he didn't cooperate. In return, the US has told him he will not be extradited to India. Aside from the months of torture that awaited Mr. Headly, at the end he also faced the 100% probability of an early morning date with the hangman.

· Excuse us, please, this is how the US cooperates with others on the GWOT? How many Americans versus Indians have died thanks to Mr. Headly? 1 as to 200?

· Again, we are not going to upbraid the US. If the Indians are so pathetic that they cannot force the US to hand over the man, then they deserve every bit of disrespect they get from the Americans.

0230 GMT March 27, 2010

Taliban Overrun Frontier Corps Outpost In Orkazai
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/03/taliban_counterattac.php

· ROK corvette sinks, 40 sailors killed South Korea says its too early to blame anyone for the sinking, which was previously suspected to have been caused by a DPRK torpedo. The crew consisted of 104 men.

· If not a torpedo, possibly it was a mine that got loose. The corvette started sinking at 21:30 local time; it is likely that it was dark at the time and a drifting mine might not be seen.

· Allawi wins Iraq vote The former Prime Minister's bloc won 91 seats versus 89 for the Malaki bloc. Mr. Malaki, the sitting Prime Minister, seems disinclined to accept his loss. In any case after the maneuvering for partners from the Kurds, al-Sadr bloc, and other parties, the situation could go either way.

· We congratulate Iraq on a successful election and again remind the US its work is done. Time to come home, people. Yes, US made some amazingly stupid mistakes after invading Iraq in 2003. But that's history now. The present situation clearly shows that democracy has taken a firm hold in Iraq. Israel is now no longer the sole democracy in the Mideast. The implications of this election for the authoritarian states of the region are enormous.

· Mission accomplished.

· 2 Israeli troops killed in Gaza; Israeli armor and engineers moving into Khan Younis Hamas claims responsibility for the death. Whatever happens, as usual expect the Israelis to massively retaliate.

· One of the Israelis was a major. His brother was killed in South Lebanon in 1998.

· The Israelis will do what they have to do, so we are not passing judgment. Nonetheless we are impelled to point out that the Israeli retaliation will play right into the hands of Hamas and extremists of every stripe, because Israel mindlessly punishes the guilty and the innocent alike.

· NATO Secretary General calls for making missile shield an alliance project He noted that beside Iran 30 countries have missile capabilities. We're not students of NATO diplomacy, but it seems to us that this is the first time the head of the alliance has called for a missile shield. If we are correct, this could signal a shift in European perceptions among those who instinctively resist anything the US wants to do, even if it is protect Europeans.

· Senator McCain says President should expect continued opposition from Republicans because of the health-care bill. He later backtracked, saying if the issue was one of national security, the Republicans would, of course, cooperate.

· Now, Senator McCain is hardly a hot-head, and he is hardly even a real Republican according to much of his party. He is his own man. If even he is angry to the point of threatening non-cooperation for the remainder of the President's term, then the country has a real problem. President Obama has his victory, but at what cost?

0230 GMT March 26, 2010

· The pathetic state of US manufacturing base In 2008, US agreed to supply 13 helicopters to Mexico for the drug war. Not only has the order not been completed, it could get pushed back to 2013 for completion. Why? Because US has order a few dozens helicopters for the Afghan war. http://defensenews.com/story.php?i=4553311&c=AME&s=TOP

· So are we building warships here that it could take 5 years to deliver 13 helicopters? Do the people of America even realize what's happened to the manufacturing base - gutted would be too kind a word - and the resultant effect on defense?

· US-Russia to sign new N-arms control treaty Each will cut 650 strategic warheads, for a total of 1550 deployed, and launchers will be cut to 800 each from 1600.

· Now, any reduction is these weapons is welcome. But its a sad commentary on the human race when 1550 warheads on each side is considered progress, considering just 10 warheads delivered against 10 major cities would cause catastrophic damage.

· Our fave dictator hammers another nail in his coffin He's done gone arrested the head of the last independent TV station in Venezuela,

· Meanwhile, to underline Venezuela's deteriorating energy situation, Hugo has added three more days to the traditional Easter holidays, to conserve energy. The government is now levying "punitive surcharges" on companies that use more power than Hugo deems. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/take-an-extra-three-days-off-to-save-energy-chavez-tells-venezuelans-1928035.html

· India can learn from Oz about weapons procurement The entire Indian weapons procurement program is in such dire straits that it's pointless giving details which are available on any number of Indian blogs. It has nothing to do with money, of which India actually has more than it can spend.

· The Ozzies recently faced a situation such as confronts India in just about about every land and air procurement program. US F-35 program has suffered delays and escalating costs, opening the possibility of a dangerous gap in Oz air defense/strike capabilities as its original F-18s get older and the F-111s retire.

· So Oz calmly bought 24 more F-18s, and is prepared for even more delays in the F-35, if they materialize. Currently the first of 4 F-35 squadrons is not expected to be ready till 2018.

· Wait a minute, you say, you can't just walk into an F-18 store and buy 24 more. It takes years to plan all this out.

· You are correct: Australia started getting ready four years ago for the possibility of delays.

· By comparison, the competition to replace six Indian air Force MiG-21 squadrons has still not been finalized, leave alone delivery of the aircraft begun. If a decision comes this year, the first new fighters could arrive in 2014. By which time six decades will have elapsed from when the first MiG-21s entered IAF service, and 38 years since the last MiG-21 version, the -bis, entered service. India in 1983 formulated requirements for a replacement, due for IOC in 1995. Well, here we are in 2010.

· The MiG-21bis was designed for a 4000-hour/20-year life, and the Russians extended the life by a rebuild/modernization. But let's get real, people. MiG-21 is a point defense fighter dating from the 1950s - it is a contemporary to the F-104 Starfighter. No matter what you do, the aircraft had done its thing by 1990.

· Enuf said.

0230 GMT March 25, 2010

· Al-Sadr: head murderer and now kingmaker Neither major party in Iraq has come anywhere near to putting together a majority coalition. The Kurds, who could have been a big bloc for one side or the other, appear to have split amongst themselves. That leaves Al-Sadr, with a 35-40 seat bloc, to decide who will be the next prime minister of Iraq. Neither sides likes him in the slightest, but that's political life.

· From Reader Mahender: Indian law to shoot down hijacked aircraft Its not law yet, the proposed amendment says: 'if there is evidence that the aircraft is being used as a missile' then it would be legal to shoot it down. Will have to see the final wordings when it is presented, but with Mr. Chidambaram in the Home Minister's position, the law is likely to pass.

· The problem is no Indian politician would have the spine to order shooting down an aircraft full of Indian citizens and much less so if it had foreign citizens. So it isn't going to be worth the paper it is written on.

· Editor's comment Mr. Chidambaram is reckoned as a strong Home Minister.

· Israel has made clear to the US it is not going to freeze settlements. Mr. Obama is not the first president to be disappointed in the Israelis as a partner for Mideast peace; he surely won't be the last. What's the old saw about insanity is defined as repeating yourself and expecting different results? US needs to take that seriously.

· There are many schools of Indian philosophy; one says that there are situations where no action is preferable to any action. We saw the truth of this with Mr. George Bush's approach to Venezuela. Had the US opposed Hugo, it would have assured him 30 more years on the throne - as it did with Fidel.

· Middle East has, in our opinion, long ago reached the situation where the US can do nothing about the Arabs and Israel. So why not now deliberately try doing nothing? Sixty-two years have passed without a resolution, why does the US think it can still succeed?

· Forget the hooha about the 1600 units, someone is getting set to demolish the old Sheppard's Hotel in Jerusalem and build luxury accommodation. This has come while Bibi, the Israeli PM, was visiting Washington. The Israelis say this is not up for discussion because the plans were put in motion a long time ago and have nothing to do with any promises they have made to the US. When you ask "what is it that you promised the US?", the Israelis say "We didn't promise anything."

· Fair enough, but why should the US stick its nose in the mess? Blow kisses to the Arabs and Israelis alike, and say "Goodbye, and thanks for the fish", or "It's been real, " or "see you later alligator", or whatever. Its unseemly, undignified, and plain absurd that the US allows itself to do Israel's bidding. Why do Americans blame the Israelis? If the US is willing to be used, why should the Israelis not use the US? Look to yourself, America. Everyone else is not responsible for your shortcomings, only you are.

0230 GMT March 24, 2010

· Somalia: A change in the prevailing wind? New York Times says that Somalis, repulsed by Shabab's ruthlessness, are turning against the fundamentalists. You can read the article at http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/24/world/africa/24somalia.html?ref=world

· Editor's reservation about the thesis is that Somalis, who are moderate Muslims, never supported Shabab anyway. The movement gained headway through force, intimidation, murder, and general mayhem. So Editor is unsure how this plays out. It may be that your typical Somali is now more ready to fight Shabab than he was in the past, and Times does give an example of a neighborhood freed from the fundamentalists by its residents. But what happens when Shabab goes back to guerilla warfare? Right now Shabab is easy to fight because its running the place and is easily identified. If Shabab is pushed back and if it returns to guerilla warfare, then it will become very hard to combat.

· Main Battle Tanks refuse to die The latest threat to the MBT has been the cheap RPG. If you have the courage to get sufficiently close-in, your typical RPG can penetrate ~350mm armor, which is unpleasant for the people inside the tank. And then there's the thermobaric RPG warhead, a sort of miniature Fuel Air Explosive. More unpleasantness.

· Now the British have come up with not one, but two counters. The first, which is truly impressive because it is very low-tech and consists of armor with holes punched in it. When a round strikes the armor, it hits the edge of the holes, causing the round to tumble and explode sideways. So you not just have an effective defense, because you're using half the armor, its cheap. When we get to see a technical report on this, we'll discuss it with readers.

· The second is a sci-fi defense, the force-field. You coat your tank with supercapcitators. When the sensors see an incoming round, they direct the supercapacitator to discharge, repulsing the round. The generator - which involves a capacitator - recharges very quickly, and uses little power. With this invention, you can imagine that warships have a new defense against missiles, torpedoes, and bombs.

· Of course, its a ways from here to there and surely there will be misfires in the development. But interesting stuff, and it could make tanks much lighter. Congratulations to the British.

· http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/7487740/Star-Trek-style-force-field-armour-being-developed-by-military-scientists.html

0230 GMT March 23, 2010

· Pakistan COAS General Kayani increasingly in control Politics of any sort gives us a severe headache, especially Pakistani politics which frankly we don't understand. We were starting to research what people have been talking about, i.e., the increasing assertiveness of General Kayani in Pakistan, when we received an article forwarded by contributor Major AH Amin. The article appeared in the Times of India. Below are a few direct quotations. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/GENERAL-IN-THE-HOOD/articleshow/5704928.cms?curpg=2

· He (General Kayani) made a much talked about power-point presentation at the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) headquarters in Brussels on how he could help the West get out of Afghanistan; he talked turkey with the Turks on keeping control of a key conference in Istanbul on Afghanistan's future; and he's assumed the role of the point person on 'reconciliation' with Taliban.

· This week, Kayani will be the pre-eminent member of the Pakistan delegation at a strategic dialogue with Washington where demand No.1 will be a nuclear deal like the one signed with India, apart from agreements on more mundane matters like trade and agriculture. In preparation for the talks, Kayani presided over a meeting of government secretaries on Tuesday, the first time that top-level bureaucrats have been called to army headquarters in a civilian regime.

· Sitting with (Indian) foreign minister S M Krishna this February, US defense secretary Robert Gates said he was going to Pakistan the next day. So who was he going to meet? Oh, a number of people, said Gates, but his most important conversation would be with Pakistan army chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani. "Why not Zardari?" asked Krishna, referring to the Pakistan president. "Because Kayani is the most important man out there," Gates said matter-of-factly.

· Editor has picked up rumors some months back that the General had become increasing assertive and that President Zaradari was trying to squash the General. We knew it would be no contest and the President would lose.

· So what does all this mean for the US? Very little. The Pakistan Army has been the arbiter of the nation's fate since the early 1950s, and US has long experience of dealing with Pakistan's generals. The American idea of bringing democracy back to Pakistan was dumb, dumb, dumb, because its chosen Viceroy, Mrs. Bhutto was as corrupt as every other politician. If the Americans are reconciled to forgetting that 3-Stooges episode in their diplomacy, its just as well, because you may as well deal with the real power.

· From what we hear, though the US is preparing to abandon Afghanistan, this time around it will not abandon Pakistan as it did after the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan was defeated. This has all sorts of implications that may or may not be of interest to our readers.

· While we've dutifully reported what's happening in Pakistan, honestly, the subject is way too boring.

· Right now we're trying to figure out why US delivered 48 refurbished M-109 155mm SP howitzers to Brigadier Artillery, V Corps Reserve. The Reserve has two independent armored brigades which should already have had a 155mm regiment each, so for the third brigade - which we believe is motorized - you'd need one regiment (18 howitzers) and for Div Arty you'd need another regiment (again, 18). So why 48 and not 36. Even if you say one of the two armored brigades did not have SP artillery, US should have delivered 54 - and not 48. If you say the package includes reserve guns, okay, so then we should have had 40 or 60. If you say maybe some of the howitzers were intended for another formation, why give the extras to Brigadier Artillery of the V Corps Reserve.

· This is the sort of problem we like to work on, certainly not Pakistani politics - or US politics or Indian politics or Abkhazia's politics.

0230 GMT March 22, 2010

· US considering Pakistan civilian N-deal Before we tell you about that, we'd like to be clear that as far as we are concerned, Pakistan has every right to its N-weapons, and even to proliferate them as it has been doing - Libya, Iran, Saudi, and DPRK being the main countries Pakistan has sold equipment and/or technology to.

· That said, US law prohibits dealing with proliferators. In Washington, of course, morality and law are minor inconveniences, because US is considering a civilian N-deal with Pakistan on the lines US has with India.

· Not that anyone cares, but just in case it's possible that some Americans may care, please note that Libya - at the time, Iran, and DPRK are US enemies.

· Further, Pakistan tried to make a deal with AQ for the supply of two warheads - the discussions were going on around the time of 9/11.

· Still further, China supplied 50-kg of HEU to Pakistan - and if that isn't proliferation, we don't know. Some of the material was used in the Pakistani N-tests in 1998. Everyone and his sister know that, but the US has kept silent because it gives people a big club to beat the Government with. Please note we are saying "Government" - both the Bush and Obama Administrations have double-dealt on this issue.

· As for some Pakistanis worried about the US using this as a ploy to penetrate Pakistan's N-program, two points. Of course this is a ploy to penetrate the Pakistan N-program, the same as was the case with India. Indians say they are confident they can keep the Big Fat Nosey Parkers out of the weapons side of the program; our argument was why let the US breach a key barrier. Why let them into your house if you know jolly well they are going to spy on the rooms that are off-limits.

· Second point: of course, no matter how much intelligence you have, you always want more. Nonetheless, the US has penetrated the Pakistan N-program, and if any Pakistani honestly thinks otherwise, then s/he is living in La La Land.

· More West Bank rioting resulting in the deaths of two Palestine teenagers. The Israelis say they tried to stab an Israeli soldier on routine patrol. Palestinians say they were stepping down from a minibus hours after rioting ended and were shot in the back.

· India and Pakistan: Business as usual The other day an advert for the Lahore Police appeared in Pakistan newspapers, except the insignia was that of the Indian Police. Outrage etc. Now an Indian advert for Indian Railways has appeared, showing Delhi in Pakistan. Outrage etc. Two months ago Indian newspapers had a picture captioned as the Indian Air Force's Chief of Staff, except the photo was that of the Pakistan Air Force's Chief of Staff. Outrage, etc

· Just another example of how us Indians and Pakistanis speak before thinking.

· Letter from Reader Sanjith 1.Singapore Airlines stopped operating out of Pakistan, last week.
It used to operate out of Lahore! 2.Our airports in India are getting security alerts, most likely
every week or so. 3. India amends a law to shoot down hijacked passenger aircrafts. 4. Ever since Obama , gave his speech at West Point announcing withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Pakistani establishment is on a new high. It feels it is winning.

· Tie all this together and its possible a major terror attack against India is in the offing.

· Editor's comment Perhaps reader Sanjith can send us more details of this new Indian law?

· As for the Pakistanis thinking they are winning: in Editor's opinion (a) they have won already; (b) they deserve this victory because they have beaten the US's game while the US was thinking it had turned Pakistan into a lackey state; (c) once Pakistan goes into Afghanistan in force, the Taliban, both Afghan and Pakistani, will turn against Pakistan in force.

· Editor is not going to waste his breath what he has been saying to the Indians for 14 years: the fundamentalists are going to come for India. After the Bombay November 2008 attack some Indians have begun to understand this. But most of the government, military, intelligence, elite, fourth estate remain as clueless as to what's going to happen when the fundamentalists take over Pakistan and then hit India.

0230 GMT March 21, 2010

· Israel, US kissy-facing again They have decided to discuss their "differences" privately. It looks as if US Secretary of State Clinton has gotten some kind of promise on Jerusalem settlements. All this means is that the settlements will go forward, but more slowly and more covertly.

· Israel watching to see if a third intifada erupts in the West Bank Truthfully, we haven't been following the situation in detail. There is always trouble between Israel and Palestine, but apparently the Israelis have gone up a step in their alert.

· Apparently the trouble stems from Israel's restoration of an ancient East Jerusalem synagogue close to the Al Asqa mosque. The Palestinians - Fatah and Hamas both - say the work endangers the mosque. There has been rioting, and a couple of Palestine youths have been killed. Meanwhile, Hamas has fired rockets into Israel and the Israeli Air Force has retaliated.

· Fighting pirates, NATO style So, Somali pirates decided to attack a Denmark warship under the mistaken notion it was a merchantman. These pirates need eye exams and eye-glasses, as this is hardly the first time they've made this error. So the Danes sink the mother ship, and then thoughtfully put all the pirates into one of their boats and let the bad guys go home. That's just so harsh, man: we're sure the pirates are terrified and will go straight. More likely the pirates are wondering why the West is such a pathetic pushover.

· A NATO spokesperson said, according to BBC, that "NATO is not in the business of firing at skiffs with pirates in them" How noble. By the way, what exactly is the business NATO is in? Acting like blithering idiots and being known as the world's laughing stock?

· On March 17, another bunch of near-sighted pirates decided to attack the Netherlands destroyer Tromp, and woke up only when the warship opened fire - not to worry folks, we're sure the well-trained Netherlands gun crews unerringly missed the boats. So once again the pirates were put on a smaller boat and sent off into the sunset. Very bravely, the Tromp reported the incident to the Seychelles Coast Guard. Real demons, these NATO folks.

0230 GMT March 20, 2010

· Pakistani arrests of Taliban "completely" shut down talks channel Readers may recall we'd said that the Taliban Pakistan was of a sudden arresting were those it suspected of seeking to cut deals in Afghanistan without the Pakistanis. Now no less than Kai Eide, the controversial former UN envoy to Afghanistan, confirms that this is the case.

· Fortunately, it appears several other channels have been opened. But let us just say that any Taliban attempting to shut out Pakistan from being the final arbiter of peace talks had better sleep with an eye open.

· Pakistan has denied it is disrupting potential peace talks. Indeed, in highly injured tones it has been saying: "First you beat us on the head for not arresting Taliban. Now we do what you want, and you beat us on the head for arresting Taliban. Where's the justice?" Very clever, but we for one have never said anything except that the Pakistanis are clever.

· Officially the US is very pleased with Pakistan's cooperation, sorely missing for 8 long years. Now, in Washington everyone has a different story, but we're being told that Washington, my dear, frankly does not give a darn about the Pakistanis' machination, as long as a face-saving formula for a US exit is found. If indeed this is the case, for once we have to commend, and not criticize US over Afghanistan, because really it does not make the least difference what are the dynamics of a Pakistan-Afghanistan settlement.

· There is another side to the official US posture: no militia leader of consequence who matters to Pakistan has been touched, and the Americans know it. The behind-the-scenes views fall into two categories. One category is still seethingly angry at Pakistan's duplicity over the last 9 years, and wants revenge. The other category is saying: "Look, let's focus on the task at hand, which is getting the heck out of here."

0230 GMT March 19, 2010

· US doing India a favor by ignoring it A lot of anxious discussion is taking place in India that Obama is not as interested in India as was Bush, and that the Pakistanis have managed to leverage this into excluding India from the Afghan settlement.

· But far from signaling doomsday, as Editor's compatriots seem to think, America is doing India a favor by reducing the importance of the relationship.

· Editor's argument is simplicity itself. The US is like a 100-ton dinosaur that is as quick on its feet as it is attention-deficit. When the US is on the move, it crushes everything to the center, left, and right. Very frequently it forgets what it is doing and takes a giant poopies without warning. This results in the burial of its friend and allies. After which, the US goes "Oopsies!" and smacks itself on the hand, saying "Bad Sam. Sam Bad." Then it goes looking for new situations and new allies to bury.

· Editor loves America, and during his 20 years in India, stood up for America at times no one would be caught dead saying anything nice about America, leave alone defend it. He also has 50 years of experience and knowledge about America. His advice to Delhi is: By all means be friends with America and cooperate in the small things. To cooperate with America in the big things, even worse, to become an ally, is to lay yourself open to becoming another "Oopsies!"

· India does not need America to help it offset China or to deal with Pakistan, or whatever the reason d'jour for sucking up to America may be. If you want America's respect, be self-sufficient in your national security, and keep America at arms length. The Americans will respect you because you respect yourself.

· As for Afghanistan, the quickest way for India to defeat Pakistan on Afghanistan is to ignore Pakistan. We don't need a seat at any table for any settlement. When you sit at the table, you become responsible for the outcomes. No one in their right mind should have anything to do with an Afghan settlement, because it is going to be a 100% mess once the US leaves. India should simply continue its support of the anti-Taliban people, and it should tell the Pushtoons "If you need us, call us."

· This is called minimalist diplomacy, and its the best thing for India. It's the best thing for the US too, but there is no chance whatsoever the US will see this.

· Here's a good example of the US messing up India Iran is much surplus in natural gas, India and Pakistan are energy importers. Proposal: an Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline. After Iran assuages Indian fears re Pakistan, India agrees to join, though some issues regarding transit charges remained to be worked out.

· Next thing you know, US is sitting on India's head, saying "you cant trade with Iran because they're our enemy."

· Iran-Pakistan are proceeding with the deal; India is sitting twiddling its thumbs. But is US saying anything to Pakistan? Nope.

· So India cant trade with a traditional friend, Iran, but it's OK for Pakistan?

· Taliban start Marja pushback We thought Taliban would simply wait till US started troop withdrawals and then come back. Looks like Taliban has not gotten the word on what Orbat predicted, because they've already started their push-back in Marja. They've beheaded at least one person, and are sending regular night-letters warning people not to even think of taking the lowliest government job. They move around unarmed, so if stopped they can say they're civilians. But at night they have a free run.

· We've mentioned several times that 99% of the people can be against a particular group, but if that group is sufficiently bloodthirsty and the government weak, the 1% can rule the 99%. The article - New York Times - makes clear the majority of the population wants the Taliban gone. But the Taliban have enough sympathizers - and enough fear-making ability - that the people are already intimidated.

· http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/18/world/asia/18afghan.html?ref=world

· Two-child China county has slower population growth than one-child China One thing guaranteed to perk up your jaded Editor's interest is news that is preposterously counter-intuitive. So, it turns out the Chinese Government in 1985 secretly authorized an experiment in one county where residents would be allowed two children, if they followed certain rules such as delaying marriage and waiting six years between children. So you'd think the population would explode?

· You'd think wrong. The county has a population increase rate near 5 percentage points lower than China's growth with one child. One factor cited is growing prosperity.

· Read http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article7067834.ece

· Of course, its a bit scary that the Chinese are running experiments as if people are rabbits, but that's the Chinese for you, and in the 1970s when one-child was deemed the maximum, there was a real fear that China, already heavily overpopulated, would grow out of control.

0230 GMT March 18, 2010

· 2000 Fatah militia in Lebanon defect to Hezbollah says Debka.com. That leaves 3000 with Fatah-Lebanon and increase's Hezb's strength to 17,000. We honestly don't know enough about this to comment on what it all means, if anything.

· Rahmat Shlomo: informative article by UK Independent which offers a different perspective on the Israel-US disagreement over Israeli settlement expansion. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/inside-the-town-that-will-test-obama-to-the-limit-1923143.html

· Do we need precision for everything? So asks the US Army's Vice Chief of staff. He notes a 155mm dumb round costs $650; the smart round costs $78,000. His point is worth thinking about.

· Windpower may cost jobs article can be found at http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article.aspx?id=527214 Thanks to Reader Flymike.

0230 GMT March 17, 2010

· The return of al-Sadr When al-Sadr went off the radar screen following his losing battles with the US Army, told his followers to store their weapons and to turn to social service, we believed the US had made a great mistake in not dispatching him to his just reward in the Very Hot Downstairs Place. This man is a very dangerous snake, and there are some people who are so murderous, so violently criminal, that's it's better for everyone to get over one's squeamishness and to kill them. Had the US not mounted its surge, it's possible that al-Sadr would have created the greatest blood-bath in modern times.

· So it does not make us joyously happy to learn from the New York Times that this killer has returned, and may win as many as 40 seats, becoming a kingmaker in Iraq. Doubtless someone will say "oh, but we forced him to renounce violence and he turned to democratic political action, and this is a good thing."

· Nothing to do with a live al-Sadr is a good thing. This man is not a democrat. He wants to rule all Iraq, and if it means a few hundred thousand people or more must die, to him that's just an inconvenience equivalent to a fly in one's soup. He is young, ruthless, energetic, and possessed of a cunning that many twice his age lack. If he indeed becomes a kingmaker, the coalition that he crowns will owe him, and big time. Money, guns, key positions will come his way again. Remember what he did last time when he had those resources.

· Wind-power a money loser, writes Reader Flymike Further, he points that the costs of subsidizing wind power, while creating jobs in one sector, takes away resources from other sectors. Some believe more jobs are destroyed than are created by wind power.

· Quotes from an article Flymike cited (he is sending us the URL).

· "...researchers at King Juan Carlos University in Spain released a study showing that every "green job" created by the wind industry killed off 4.27 other jobs elsewhere in the Spanish economy.

· Research director Gabriel Calzada Alvarez didn't object to wind power itself, but found that when a government artificially props up this industry with subsidies, higher electrical costs (31%), tax hikes (5%) and government debt follow. Fact is, these subsidies have the same "Cuisinart" effect on jobs as wind-generating propeller blades have on birds. Every green job costs $800,000 to create and 90% of them are temporary, he found.

· Alvarez made no bones about the lessons of Spain for the Obama administration, which has big plans for "green jobs." His report warned of "considerable employment consequences" from "self-inflicted economic wounds." It forecast that the U.S. could lose 6.6 million jobs if it followed Spain, and it "should certainly expect its results to follow such a tendency.""

· That wind power cannot stand on its feet at this time is irrefutable. Nonetheless, there may be sound reasons to subsidize certain things. America's phenomenal prosperity in the 30 years 1940-70 was built on subsidies: automobiles, computers, aircraft, advanced materials - to give just a very few examples - used US spending on defense. Nuclear power, of which we are great fans, is subsidized in that the government does - or at least did - the bulk of the R & D. Coal is subsidized because the true cost of the pollution, health, and environment, is passed on to us, the consumers.

· America is falling behind in many technology areas precisely because other governments do not hesitate to subsidize technologies they believe will give them the lead in coming decades. Our wanting to maintain our doctrinal purity results in our falling further behind.

· But as far as the Editor is concerned his concern in not global warming. It is national security. America needs to throw everything it has into weaning ourselves from imported oil. A whacking great chunk of our national security budget - Editor once estimated it as 15% of all security spending: homeland, defense, intelligence, foreign aid, nuclear weapons, space etc; a case can be made its higher. You and I are not just subsidizing oil, but the government is leaving us completely vulnerable to disruption of oil supplies.

· As far as we are concerned, America has to do everything possible to eliminate oil imports from the Gulf, North Africa, and West Africa. If it means subsidizing wind or solar-electric or passive-safety reactors or fusion power or whatever, we believe all sources have to be developed on a crash, highest-priority basis.

· Army revamps physical training Read this great article sent by Reader Luxembourg. Daily Herald | Army drops bayonets, busts abs in training revamp

0230 GMT March 16, 2010

Iraq Election 2010 Results
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/03/maliki_allawi_surge.php

· Pentagon questions value of Israel as an ally Frankly, we consider this a plant to try and get the Israelis to behave themselves better, subsequent to the US Vice-Presidential visit fiasco. Nonetheless, it's worth a read because - if true - US has stopped being a limp-wimp re. Israel. But how long this thinking will last when the Israelis start pushing back is something to be seen.

· http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article7063214.ece

· Would Islamic fundamentalism again the US disappear if Israel was no longer an issue for the Arabs? Not one bit. Sure, Arabs get propaganda value out of the US-Israel connection. Maybe they even get a recruit or two on occasion. But Israel has no relevance to the Islamists.

· So while Editor personally would like the US to have a more even-handed approach to the Palestine-Israel issue, it's best to remember that AQ and its various offshoots, the Pakistani jihadi groups, the SE Asia jihadi groups and so on, don't give a hoot about Israel. And please do note we said "Palestine-Israel issue", not "Arab-Israel issue". The Arabs do not care half a hoot about the Palestinians. Never did. Never will. The people who said they really cared about the Palestinians are the Egyptians and the Jordanians, because they were impacted by the creation of Israel and the subsequent wars. And they are now America's BFF in the Middle East. Egypt, indeed, is Israel's BFF when it comes to oppressing the Palestinians.

· Just occurred to us that our overseas readers may need BFF clarified: it's not what you're thinking, but Best Friends Forever. As for Friends With Benefits and Friends Without Benefits, that we leave to readers to figure out

0230 GMT March 15, 2010

· Why the US has no credibility on non-proliferation Yesterday's Washington Post carried an article describing Pakistan's N-weapons cooperation with Iran. The British journalist Simon Henderson has obtained papers and interviews with people to document the relationship. None of this is unknown to US intelligence agencies; the sole difference is that since they would not or could not talk about it, there has been little by way of hard evidence in the public domain. Pakistan's proliferation efforts re. Libya and Saudi Arabia – and heaven knows who else – are also well known, as are the connections between AQ and Dr. AQ Khan, the so -named “Father of the Pakistan Bomb”.

· So has Pakistan been labeled a rouge state and punished? No, because the US is allied to Pakistan. In the same way, US never has anything to say about Israel's N-weapons, and it had little to say about South Africa's program. This is because these are/were pariah states, creating situations where the US might find it inconvenient to come to their direct defense. Also in the same way, it is common knowledge in the N-weapons community that Japan, ROK, and Taiwan have created the capability to go nuclear within months if the need ever arose. These nations too are US allies.

· So when the US turns around and punishes Iraq and then Iran for its N-weapons program, for much of the world the question becomes: how do you spell hypocrisy?

· Now let's be clear. Editor tends to look at global security issues through a US lens, so he is all for Iran being denuclearized. He completely understands that US allies's N-weapons programs have to be treated on a different level from those of its enemies.

· But here's the thing. US wraps everything it does in high-sounding moral tones, when the US is no more nor no less moral than any other state. US, like everyone else, does what it has to do to secure its interests. You don't see the British and the French and the Russians and the Chinese giving others moral lectures.

· If the US simply made it clear it acts in its own interests, very few people will have a problem with America. Even the Arabs would have little problem because they of all people know that the strong make the rules, the weak follow those rules or pay the price. They have been strong in their time, and if you didn't obey their rules, they simply put you to the sword.

· Nothing we say is going to make the US change the way it does things. We want only for our Americans readers to appreciate why the rest of the world does not see non-proliferation the same way when America insists on reserving the right of first-strike, insists on maintaining enough active and reserve weapons to devastate the world, and on top of all that, turns a Nelson's eye tyo the proliferation by its friends and allies.

· Letter from Adam on the current contretemps in US-Israeli relations Maybe the US they are distancing themselves in order to minimize backlash to the US of an Israeli military operation. They are both still allies thanks to mutual enemies regardless of the Soviet Union being gone.

· Letter from a reader who wishes not to be names You have not mentioned the biggest factor in the US's pro-Israel and anti-Arab stance, which is racism.

· Editor's Comment Well yes, racism does have a lot to do with it. Israelis are in the main from Europe. But there is another side to this, and this is the anti-Jewish prejudice – also a form of racism – that runs very deep in the West. So this is not a simple matter of racism as most people use the term.

· And yes, we acknowledge Mr. Lloyd's point about common enemies. The Arabs have to in their turn accept their responsibility for bad relations with the US. Yes, we know all about the colonialism factor and how the US, thanks to the Cold War, turned from its anti-colonial stance from World War 2 days to becoming a champion of colonialism. Editor is a 3^rd Worlder, and knows first hand the damage the colonial and post-colonial attitudes have done to the Arabs. At the same time, US has done its share of damage: US supporting the Shah is the sole reason the Iranians hate America. The cavalier manner in which US puts Israel's interests ahead of everyone else's also plays a role.

· But: irony abounds. These days America is hated by most Arabs for another reason altogether. And that is the rock-solid American support for the Arab world's tyrants, chief among them the Egyptian and Saudi governments. In a sense US is repeating the mistakes it did with the Shah.

0230 GMT March 14, 2010

· US to Israel: you are a naughty little boy - but adorable If you opine in Washington DC that Israel runs US Mideast policy, you will get scornful looks from the idiotatti - the people who run this town. How Washington cannot see this is a great mystery. Most 3rd World types see Washington's tolerance, backing, and protecting of Israel as proof the US does not care one whit for the Arabs.

· When the Editor replies yes, you are quite right, US indeed does not care for the Arabs, but it's got nothing to do with Israel, it's got to do with the buttotti kissing the Arabs insist on before handing over their oil, people argue back "then why does the US blindly support the Israelis no matter what they do?"

· When Editor says every nation has its blind spot where logic ceases and there's no explanation for it, people retort "you're the one being illogical."

· See, folks, the Arab hating part is simple. For 40 years the Arabs have been standing between the US and its big cars. You can rob an American's house, you can steal the house, you can sell his children into slavery, and you can run off with his wife under his nose, he will merely wave and say "Whatever". But when he is told: "Sorry, fella, gasoline has gone up another 20-cents", you have declared war. Indeed, Arabs should be thankful they haven't been nuked yet.

· But what about the pro-Israel part? Well, you must remember that while the US was instrumental in the creation of Israel, it wasn't really pro-Israeli till the 1967 War. The Arabs, having got their behind kicked for the third time in 20 years fell into the Soviets' lap, and after that it was downhill between the US and the Arabs. Okay, you say, the Soviets have been gone for 20 years. True, but old habits are hard to change.

· We mean, after all, would you throw out your kid because he's behaving badly? Some parents would, but most wouldn't. As far as Editor is concerned its not much more complicated than that. Sure, the Israeli lobby has a ton of money and media influence, but look, people, if it were only a question of money, the Arabs who have more loose change than anyone in the world would be Kings of the Hill. Capitol Hill, that is.

· Anyway, that's the Editor's opinion for what its worth, after pondering the latest US-Israeli teacup in a tempest.

· The Israelis are terrifically sadistic toward Uncle. Mr. Biden went to the Mideast to get peace talks started, and while he was there Israel said it would build 1600 new housing units in Jerusalem. An exquisitely placed kick to the shins.

· So the brouhaha is not even over, and American apologists are all over the issue like flies on bull-poop. The Israeli Prime Minister had no knowledge the announcement was going to be made, we are being told. Really? Israel has about the population of the Greater Washington Metro area and the Israeli PM doesn't know what his own cabinet is doing? But the plan will not be implemented for several years, we are being told. First, in this case we'll wager an Israeli year is a month for normal people. Second, if someone is deliberately trying to mess up Israeli-US relations, why has the Israeli PM not had the man's head served up to Mr. Biden? Oh, but you see the Israeli PM has a tricky coalition; he depends on religious extremists and they see Jerusalem as part of Israel. Okay, but why is the US making internal Israeli politics its problem?

· Mr. Biden said that no matter what, talks must go on. Thank you, Mr. Biden, for giving Israel's line to the Arabs. This has greatly enhanced your credibility with the Arabs. A Nobel for the Veep for sure.

· So with one kick the Israelis have set US Mideast plans back a few years, and the US's response? Naught, naughty, but you are so adorable.

· Out of the 6-billion or so 3rd Worlders, there may have been one who believed the Editor when he says Washington is just being its usual Big Fat Idiot self, and really, there's no conspiracy.

· Now any minute the Editor expects an email from that one person yelling: "I will never let you con me again, may you rot in that hot place where the usher is dressed in a red clown suit and sticks people in the rear with a trident." Okay, One-Person-Who-Believed-Me, you have every reason to be angry. If it's any satisfaction, my place with the Red Clown is already booked.

· The mushroom that ate the world! This ugly fat feller covers 8.8-square-kilometers in Oregon and kills trees as it advances. Oh yes, its 2400 years old. Safety tip: do not go drinking in the Oregon woods and pass out.

· http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/oregons-monster-mushroom-is-worlds-biggest-living-thing-710278.html

0230 GMT March 13, 2010

· US/NATO to retrain Afghanistan Police They have decided that they made a mistake in the way they were training, and feel it is better to start from scratch. Thousands, if not tens of thousands, of police will be sent to Turkey and Jordan for training.

· http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/11/AR2010031103148.html

· To add 12,000 police by October, 40,000 have to be recruited to offset attrition and desertion. Right there you can see a huge, huge problem. If attrition is so high, then the recruits are not properly selected. If desertion is so high, the men are not properly trained.

· Indeed, the Coalition has the temerity to say that the best-trained units suffer 75% annual attrition rates. These are the paramilitary forces which are heavily deployed.

· Okay, we'd like these Coalition geniuses to explain how we are seeing 75% attrition each year for units they call "best trained"? If the US Army lost 75% of its elite units due to annual attrition, wouldn't you call for an investigation of how the men are recruited and trained?

· So 8 1/2 years have elapsed, and we have to start from scratch? Isn't there a high standard of accountability for leaders in wartime? So where's the accountability for this colossal boondoggle?

· We need to make clear that NATO/EU have snafu'ed as much as the US, but then is anyone seriously expecting anything from EU/NATO?

· French Navy captures 35 pirates in three days, destroying four mother ships and six skiffs. The lot has been packed off to Kenya for trial. Typical western move: you all so frightened of trying them yourselves you've outsourced the job to a local country.

· We told you speaking first thinking later is not just a Pakistani trait but is a subcontinental trait. Now the Indian Home Minister has announced that the Maoists, who are active in one-third of India's districts (counties) will be defeated in three years. What's so sad about this amazingly stupid statement is that the Minister is actually quite a brainy fellow and an effective administrator. The Maoist problem has plagued India for 40 years, and a lot of it tied up with social injustice. Its absurd to think its going to solved in three years when India has not been able to defeat straightforward secessionist insurgencies in its northeast for 40 years.

0230 GMT March 12, 2010

· China's rapid growth cannot continue says an opinion piece in yesterday Washington Post. Because China's growth has been export led, an IMF document says that to maintain 8% annually, China will have to double exports by 2020. Seeing as it has already edged out Germany as the world's biggest exporter, this is unlikely to happen. China can shift to consumer demand led growth, this will be much slower though it can continue for decades.

· China is facing serious structural instabilities of which readers are aware, such as the investment bubble and non-performing loans. An example of the investment bubble: China has enough installed steel capacity to supply the entire developed world plus Russia.

· So you thought Americans refuse to pay higher taxes We certainly thought so - till we read about Los Angeles. It seems Angelinos have agreed to increase their sales tax by half a point to 8.75% - which is a whacking great sales tax - to fund a rebuild/expansion of their very strained transportation infrastructure. And the measure passed 67-33.

· [Incidentally, we gather from the California Government web site that Californians pay a tax above and beyond the sales tax, called a user fee. With that fee, Angelinos actually pay - gulp! - 9.75% on purchases. See http://www.boe.ca.gov/cgi-bin/rates.cgi?LETTER=L&LIST=CITY and if we have it wrong, please write!]

· Even more peculiar, all they've asked of Uncle Sam is that he guarantee the loans they will pay off using the sales tax increase - they don't want Sam the Man's money. The US Government has recently agreed to guarantee $8-billion worth of loans for new N-reactors. It also guarantees the student loans I take out to finance my education. When we first bought our house, we put down only 2% because the feds guaranteed the loan. Of course, we bought at the very bottom of the Washington DC housing slump in the 1990s, and paid $135K for a house at a time our joint income was $65K

· What's going on here? Well, apparently Angelinos first built a consensus on which projects were to be undertaken. The conclusion is they are willing to pay more taxes if they believe it will benefit them. If we can extrapolate, this seems to indicate Americans are not against taxes, but against taxes that simply disappear into the maw of the Government dragon which takes in more and more money, and produces nothing but dragon poop.

· Angelinos also seem to have realized something the rest of California fails to appreciate: you cannot have beer taxes and champagne budgets. You either cut spending, or you raise taxes. If you don't, you build deficits and pretty soon US is going to begging for money the same as Greece.

· To the extent the Obama Administration is still promising increased benefits with no increase in taxes, the administration is lying to us and pretty soon when the piper's bill comes due, we will realize it has done us no favors.

· So, for the health care bill, we at least would have been happier if the Administration did not fudge every figure in sight, and just told us: you want care for everyone, you have to pay more taxes. Then we could vote yes or no as is our wont.

· Mr. Obama promised change: we call on him to deliver that change in the budget process. Transparent budgets without ten gazillion riders attached to the calculations, so that we can at least see what it is we are voting for.

· As it is, thanks to the profligacy of Mr. Bush, a tradition Mr. Obama has happily embraced - so much for change we can believe in. So we are going to end up paying much higher taxes while having to severely cut services. The worst of all worlds.

· Ashley Tellis testifies before Congress on Pakistan's Let Prof Tellis is a national security analyst currently at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He sends this link for those of our readers who want to know more about the terror group and its complex relationship with Pakistan.

· www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=40330

· Letter from Josef Chamberlin on Predator targeting What they're using to track and/or home missiles on insurgents is basically a souped-up active RFID chip type/system, whereas before they had to use laser designators/beacons, which are more easily detected. All it takes is for someone close to leave it anywhere...it's literally the size of a fingernail. If it was at your door, you would never notice it. But the Predator overhead would.

· Now, let's hope the Jihadi's never acquire cheap, commercial RFID tag-read equipment...although the frequencies aren't the same. http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,64189,00.asp http://www.newsreview.com/sacramento/content?oid=11976

· Given you can use cheap, off-the-shelf Russkie software and two modified Dish-Network units, it's only a matter of time. Luckily Afghanistan has a very low literacy rate. This isn't like building an IED, this is like building a Heathkit, more tech. skills required.) Plus if Predator encrypted frequencies are anything like normal military encryption tech, it's going to be really difficult to divert Predator to false targets.

· The Americans are so incredibly fortunate that their main enemy is so completely technically backwards. Wouldn't happen with even a moderately educated insurgency/populace.

· Also, Josef sends a warning "And it seems to me perfectly in the cards that there will be within the next generation or so a pharmacological method of making people love their servitude, and producing … a kind of painless concentration camp for entire societies, so that people will in fact have their liberties taken away from them but will rather enjoy it, because they will be distracted from any desire to rebel by propaganda, brainwashing, or brainwashing enhanced by pharmacological methods." -- Huxely.

· So folks, we are already there and we don't know. But of course the best mind-control successfully hides it is controlling you and me.

0230 GMT March 11, 2010

· US SecDef says some US troops US may leave Afghanistan earlier than President Obama's July 2011 date. We saw the news yesterday late morning on CNN, but when we updated, we could not find the article. So we are quoting TV station KSAT http://www.ksat.com/news/22793742/detail.html

· Now look, people. We've said US is about to abandon Afghanistan, and given the US has neither the will or the means to fight the war as it should be fought to win, getting out is sensible.

· What we have strenuously objected to is the continuing of the war to give President Obama cover. He opposed the war before he took office. Let him have the courage to get out now instead of wasting more time, money, and lives. US may think its drawing things out will let it influence the future shape of Afghanistan. But no Taliban or enemy will negotiate seeing as it costs them nothing to hang in there till the US leaves.

· We'd like to ask President Obama, his cabinet members, and Congress: would you buy political cover at the cost of your children's lives?

· Then why are you buying it at the cost of other people's children's lives?

· Mexico's oil: a coming strategic disaster for the US In the last two years US has imported 12% of its oil from Mexico. But since 2004, Mexican output has fallen from 3.5-million/bpd to 2.5-million, and is likely to fall further at a time Mexico's increasing prosperity is driving up domestic demand. By 2020, it is feared Mexico will become an oil importer as production falls to 1.9-million.

· Why is this so? New York Times points out the sacrosanct 1938 law nationalizing oil production cannot be touched for political reasons. So, just as in Venezuela, output is falling. Of course, Mexico does not have to endure official government corruption in disposition of oil revenues, but the reality must be faced. Capital goes where it can get the best return, and Mexico is not such a place at this time.

· But given the emotive issue of oil ownership, Mexico may change only after it is too late for the US.

· Meanwhile South Africa's SASOL and India's Tata conglomerate are discussing an $8-billion investment in an 80,000-bbl/day coal-to-oil project. That is a huge investment, $100,000-per barrel. But India has perhaps a quarter-trillion tons of coal and is a big oil importer, so anything that cuts dependence on oil is welcome.

· We urge the US to reduce its dependence on imported oil which last year accounted for 50% of a $500-billion trade deficit. This dependence cannot be reduced by investing in alternate energy alone, because solar and wind-power are years away from providing base-load power. Indeed, because of the environmental difficulties with alternative energy, there is no alternative to investing in every conventional source, including coal to oil.

· If US finds coal so distasteful - and we accept coal has caused enormous environmental damage in terms of air quality and the destruction of Appalachia - then US needs to go very rapidly into nuclear. We cannot sit around for the rest of our lives vetoing this, that, and the other, and expecting conservation and alternates will suffice. We have expressed our personal preference for nuclear.

0230 GMT March 10, 2010

· Zabul, Afghanistan Washington Post notes that after US withdrew one of three infantry battalions deployed in Zabul Province - two American and one Romanian - for the Marja offensive, Taliban has been returning in hundreds. The battalion was in the western part of the province.

· As always, the Americans on the ground know exactly what is happening. They are under no illusions. Zabul is an important province and has a border with Pakistan to boot. But the American commanders are clear about their current mandate: clean out Helmand and Kandahar. To do that, they say they have to pull in outlying forces. A lot more than Zabul is going to see the Americans gone. As for the Afghans taking over, in Zabul - as elsewhere - its clear the Afghans are not taking over anything.

· That's life when you fight a war with insufficient resources, and the American commanders are wasting no time feeling sorry for themselves or Zabul. We suspect if one could talk to them, privately, they'd say: "This place was a mess, is a mess, and will forever remain a mess. We're ready for this last push and ready to go home."

· Who can blame them? If Orbat.com and its readers grow increasingly frustrated at the futility of the Afghan war, think how much worse it is for the soldiers. We're merely bloviating; the greatest risk we run is carpal tunnel or eyestrain or sore vocal cords. The soldiers are doing the fighting. They're risking a lot more.

· Sarko AND Carla having affairs He is - ahem - "dating" his 40-year old environment minister, who is also a karate champ. Carla is - um - "dating" a 37-year old musician sic years her junior (he looks like he's 17 to the Editor, but then at Editor's age anyone under 60 looks like a teenager).

· Got to give the French credit: equal opportunity philandering and all that.

· Meanwhile, Editor still has no date. Sigh.

· Gotta to give the Chinese credit...Editor fell in love with America because in the 1950s and 1960s because it was the land of engineers. Now America has become the land of Starbucks and the Chinese have snatch the engineer's crown.

· Their latest scheme is to extend their high-speed rail network to London through 16 countries. The trains will run at about 350-km, making the journey between Beijing and London in 48-hours.

· The Chinese say the project will take time - 10-15 years. Surely the Chinese jest. In Washington DC, the capital of the Free World, serious planning for a Metrorail extension to Dulles began in 2000. The Silver Line will be complete in 2016, or sixteen years. It will be 37-km long versus ~8000-km for the Chinese proposed project.

0230 GMT March 9, 2010

Taliban versus Taliban in Afghanistan

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/03/taliban_hig_infighti.php

· Israel plans civilian N-power Israel is suffering a critical short of power. It is operating at 98% of available capacity, with only 2% in reserve. One big plant goes off line and you have a crisis.

· Israeli environmentalists have stalled a coal plant, so thoughts have turned to N-power.

· Small problem, the Israelis are telling themselves. There's the IAEA and all that rot. But, they comfort themselves, perhaps a deal similar to India's can be worked out. India, they say, is not an NPT signatory but was "allowed" to develop civilian N-power http://www.jpost.com/HealthAndSci-Tech/ScienceAndEnvironment/Article.aspx?id=170440

· Sigh. why is it no one offers the Editor the real good stuff they keep for their private use? Selfish, selfish, selfish.

· India was never "allowed" to develop civilian N-power despite not signing the NPT. It developed civilian N-power, then weaponized and declared itself an N-weapon state in the late 1990s. It continued to develop civilian N-power all the while. The idea of a separate agreement with India where it would open its civilian reactors to IAEA inspection while keeping its N-weapon plants safeguard-free was developed by the Americans as a way of getting into India's civilian reactor pants while trying to find a way into its N-weapons pants.

· India's agreement to the deal was one of the stupidest things the country has done in 60 years, but anyway, the deal is done and it does seem to have a lot of support in India even though it has clamped a lid on future Indian N-tests. And anyway, the Editor makes his fair share of dumb mistakes. Today there were donuts in the staff lounge, and the Editor took only two, as opposed to his usual quota of four to six (if he can get away with it), under some poorly thought out idea that more than two would gain him weight. The reality is if you eat 8 donuts at a sitting (Editor has done that) you are so stuffed that you skip half of lunch and so you actually save yourself the 300 calories you would otherwise have eaten had you had a whole lunch. (We understand this sounds crazy, but really, it is no more crazy than India's agreement to the US plan.)

· Israel has no civilian N-facilities, and what's more, refuses to declare itself a N-weapon state. Further, there is a slight difference between a market for 2 reactors at the max - Israel is less than half the size of Delhi - and 200 reactors. The Indian market is big enough for everyone, which is why UK, Russia, France etc supported the two-track US plan. Who is going to risk political capital the way the US did for India for the sake of two reactors?

· Yeh Hai Pakistan Mayree Jan (This is Pakistan, my heart.) The Pakistanis first say they have arrested the AQ spokesperson, who happens to be an American convert to Islam. Then they say, sorry, mistaken identity, initial reports were not right. "Scuze me, please, aren't you supposed to confirm this sort of thing before jumping to announce it?"

· Then the top Taliban commander in Baijur, whom the Pakistanis said was deader than a door knob, turns out to be hale and hearty. This goes on all the time.

· By the way, the Pakistanis are hardly unique in speaking before thinking. Its a subcontinetal thing.

0230 GMT March 8, 2010

· Hugo says Hilary is a blond Condaleeza according to an article forwarded by reader Luxembourg. Er, shouldn't that be "blonde"? But no matter, much is lost in translation. We suspect Hugo was smacked around but good by his mama; he seems to have a morbid fear of strong women.

· Hugo says all is well with Spain the Spanish PM was only asking a few questions, says Hugo. I answered, and the matter is behind us, he says.

· Now let's see. If a judge indicts the Editor, and he gets a call asking a few questions, if Editor thinks the matter is over, is he (a) an idiot; (b) a moron; (c) a retard; or all three?

· Hugo doesn't believe in the rule of law, so one supposes he would have no idea of how legal proceedings are gone about.

· Hugo wouldn't have talked to the judge, and further along, he would maintain he was railroaded because he never got a chance to explain. So the Spanish PM called him. But the Spanish PM was not making a friendly call out of curiosity. He was in effect recording your statement under authority of the judge.

· This matter has not ended, it has begun, and knowing you, Hugo, you probably blabbed away non-stop instead of letting a lawyer do the talking. (Do they have Miranda rights in Spain?)

· Now, of course we don't know how this will play out. There are all sorts of reasons why the Spanish PM may want this matter dropped. But in Spain, it's not up to him, it's up to the judge. If the PM is to go against the judge, to us it seems that Parliament would have to give permission.

· Look at it another way. If the Spanish PM didn't want to harm relations with Hugo, he could simply have told the court "you guys handle it, why are you involving me?"

· We suspect the Spanish PM called because (a) he has seen the evidence; (b) he is very upset about it.

· Why should Spain get upset about FARC? After all, US has much the same evidence of Hugo and FARC, US hasn't sought an indictment of the man, and the US is much more directly affected by Hugo than is Spain.

· The reasons the Spanish are upset is because of the ETA connection. That any state has any dealings of any sort with ETA would send the Spanish government and establishment straight up the wall.

· Aircraft would have survived Detroit bomber says a British aviation expert http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/8547329.stm who conducted an actual explosive test in a derelict Boeing 747 at BBC's request. The explosion would have killed the bomber and the passenger next to him, injured others, but no one else would have died and the aircraft's flightworthiness would not have been impaired.

· We had to read this three times to make sure we weren't seeing wrong: "However, the experts said that the death of the suspected bomber and the passenger sitting next to him would have been traumatic for passengers. "It would have been quite horrific. Obviously the blast itself would cause eardrum rupture," said Dr Wyatt. Captain Joseph said the noise and the smoke would have been awful, "not to mention the parts of the bodies that were disintegrated as part of the explosion".

· Oh the poor widdle things! We weep for the trauma they would have suffered at witnessing body parts flying about. Good grief, mon. What about the trauma they would have suffered if the bomb had blown a hole in the plane?

· India and Pakistan Two readers have written asking how can things be put right between India and Pakistan. Both readers, a westerner and an Indian, are appalled at Pakistan's lost opportunities since 1947 and the cost of the rivalry to India and also to the Pakistani people on account of the rivalry.

· We wanted to assure the readers we have not forgotten them. We've been trying to figure out a simple, short answer that will make sense to people who are unaware of the myriad details of the conflict.

· More acronyms People are suggesting BRIC is dead - Brazil-Russia-India-China - because of the slowdown in Russian economic growth and its seemingly unsolvable political and economic structural problems.

· So just in time we get an acronym: Portugal-Ireland-Greece-Spain - that's PIGS to you.

· Don't people realize that words have real power? When you create an acronym to simplify a complicated concept, you end up defining reality in a certain way. Then you react in a certain way, and miss all the subtleties of the situation. Then obviously your solutions are going to end up wrong and you're going to create a bigger mess.

· What, you say skeptically, words can do that?

· Indeed they can. Think about the misconceptions that arise from calling American states Red and Blue. Someone did a graphic by counties of the 2008 Presidential vote, and guess what? The United states ended up not Red or Blue, but Purple. Meaning that actually Americans have a common consensus, whereas the Red/Blue division polarizes the discussion and creates something that is not the reality. It does not help that extremists on either end of the spectrum grab the most media attention.

0230 GMT March 7, 2010

We did not update yesterday: Editor was researching and by the time he looked at the clock it was past bedtime.

· Pakistan to ask EU for compensation for being front-line in GWOT Pakistan's case is that it has suffered $45-billion in economic losses because of the GWOT, and it wants aid/trade to compensate.

· You have to admire Pakistan's chutzpa. Pakistan is a front-line state in the GWOT, but in the sense of being the major terrorist player. Editor must be careful to state he is not attaching any moral judgment to that statement. We've said many times that the support of insurgent/terror attacks against India and Afghanistan are part of Pakistan national security policy. We're not going to comment on Pakistan's support of AQ and if this is related to its national security policy, because we don't know enough. We don't believe Pakistan supports AQ's attacks outside South Asia because it serves no Pakistani purpose. Rather, Pakistan turns a blind eye to AQ's out-of-area attacks because of whatever utility AQ has for the local situation. What this utility is, we don't know.

· Pakistan's behavior is straightforward and easily understood. The great mystery of the GWOT as far as we are concerned, is US behavior. Editor hopes he lives long enough to see the first historical judgments on the US misadventure in South Asia.

· Can a country be awarded a Klasse Klowne Awarde? Orbat.com has not been giving these out lately because we feel there's very little happening that deserves this highest of our awardes. So now we learn from Times of India that a judge estimates India will require 320 years (you read right - three hundred and twenty years) to clear the backlog of court cases. So we're wondering if we should give India a KKA. Your thoughts are welcome.

· BTW, we're having trouble calculating India's GDP. If we go by official economic stats, by end 2010 it should be $1.2-trillion (at Rupees 46 to the dollar). If, however, we go by announcements that say India's Fiscal 2010-11 deficit is 5.5% of GDP, we get a GDP of $1.5 trillion. Either way, this doesn't count the non-declared economy. People like to talk about about how large this is in PRC, but if you want large in capital letters, best study India. People argue that if you count the non-declared economy, India's GDP growth is faster than China's.

· UK Special Forces suffer crippling losses in the Afghan and Iraq Wars. Approximately 120 have been killed or wounded so badly they can no longer serve in first line positions. The Afghan-Iraq breakdown is 2-1. The problem, as you will see from the Times article http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/afghanistan/article7052605.ece is that the UK SF are very small, possibly around 500 active duty members, and since UK cannot contribute mass to GWOT, its been riding its SF very hard.

0230 GMT March 5, 2010

· Hugo indicted in Spain for collaboration with FARC and ETA to kill Columbia's President Uribe. Reader Luxembourg reminds us about the indictment issues by a Spanish judge. Several ETA members who fled Spain settled in Venezuela, in case you're wondering about the Basque separatist terror movement's involvement.

· The Spanish Prime Minister has asked for an explanation from Hugo and spoken to him on the telephone. Hugo says there is nothing to explain as he has nothing to do with FARC or ETA, and says if Spain persists, relations between the two countries will be harmed.

· Here's the problem. Spanish judges rarely if ever back down once they've indicted someone, and this one seems to have enough evidence that the Spanish PM is asking for answers from Hugo. This makes the matter much more serious than if the judge had been an iconoclast or publicity hound. This now on a government to government level.

· If the judge issues arrest warrants, then Hugo has a rather serious problem. We'll have to wait and see how this unrolls.

· US/NATO reorganize command for Kandahar offensive Regional Command South has been split in two: Regional Command South West, which focus on Helmand, and Regional Command South East, which will focus entirely on Kandahar. This is an indication of how seriously US/NATO take their southern offensives.

· As always, the defeat of the insurgents in Kandahar is foregone. The problem - as we have repeatedly said - is that there is no way the Afghan security forces can achieve sufficient capability to fight the Taliban on their own. Once US and NATO withdraw, Pakistan Army will step in openly as it did 1994-2001, so that even if the Afghan forces achieve a certain minimal efficiency - even this is in doubt - they will not be able to fight the Pakistanis.

· When we say openly, we don't mean Pakistan send brigades into Afghanistan. It formed new brigades, manned by Pakistan Army soldiers and officers on official leave from the Army. The brigades included armor and artillery. Artillery is something at which the Pakistanis are quite proficient, and we just do not see how the Afghan Army will hold together when artillery and armor is thrown into the mix. Right now the Afghan Army cannot even protect itself against Taliban armed with just company-level weapons.

· Moreover, please remember that the Taliban is an irregular force where fighters fight when they want and go home when they want. The Pakistanis are long-service professionals. And please don't think the performance of the Pakistan Army against insurgents is in any way indicative of its actual capabilities. It has been fighting a mock war to impress the Americans and there is also vast sympathy for the Taliban in the Pakistani rank and file. And why not: the Taliban is just another arm of the Pakistan military. When it comes time to throw off the disguises, the Pakistan Army will do very well.

· One thing to watch out for is a Pakistan copy of India's 1971 strategy. India recognized the East Pakistan government as the legitimate government and as far as the Indians were concerned, they were merely responding to a request for help from the legal government.

· Pakistan acquires FFG-7 class frigate from the US and is negotiating for five more. It is probable the ships will replace Pakistan Navy's six Amazon Type 21 frigates. Pakistan has two new China built F-22P frigates with a third due this year and a fourth under local assembly. Pakistan's Type 21s were commissioned in the Royal Navy in 1974-78, and transferred in 1992-93 after US sanctioned Pakistan over its N-program and refused to extend the lease of eight US frigates.

0230 GMT March 4, 2010

Read Bill Roggio on Pakistan statement that Baijur is cleared

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/03/bajaur_cleared_of_ta.php

· Pakistan searches for four army men in Benazir murder says Dawn of Pakistan. The main accused, who is absconding, has eight relatives in the Army. Four are serving, but four, who had retired before the murder, cannot be traced.

· Correction The Pakistani cleric who condemned suicide bombers does not live in Pakistan, but in the UK. So at least he will be safe.

· Syria supplies SAM-16 Igla to Hezbollah says Debka. It further says that Israel had warned Syria any supply of strategic weapons to Hezbollah would lead to Israeli strikes against Syria. If this is true, Syria appears not to be overly concerned. Igla is not a strategic weapon, but if available in sufficient numbers, could marginally erode Israeli air supremacy. Igla is a contemporary of the US Stinger and embodies technology almost 30 years old.

· The Dubai police chief says from now on anyone with an Israeli accent will be refused entry if the passport is issued by a European country. Dashed clever, the Dubai police chief. The Editor knows a few Israeli dual nationals and they speak with impeccable American, Australian, and British accents. Of course, police chief will say he has no problem with dual-nationals, only with people with Israeli accents.

· Meanwhile, we wonder if El Chiefy has an opinion on why many of alleged murder team used genuine passports?

· As if the whole circus is not confusing enough, Al Jazeera says many of the false passport people used their false documents to obtain employment with American companies. http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2010/03/201033465170139.html

· Dashed clever these Israelis. They'll go to any extent to hide their real origins. So Mossad has large hit teams with long-term identities all worked out, for example, a second life in America, but is so stupid that Dubai so easily - within days - busted their cover identities?

· Oh yes, Chiefy also says he will seek arrest warrants against the Israeli Prime Minister and Mossad head. This man protests too much. Orbat.com intelligence sources tell us Chiefy is actually on Mossad's payroll and in fact is not even a human being, but an advanced Israeli biorobot. Has anyone checked Chiefy's accent?

0230 GMT March 3, 2010

· NATO general estimates Taliban strength at 25-36,000, and the leadership (all levels) at 900. This is the first time we, at least, have seen anything resembling a definitive estimate. We assume this is only the Afghanistan Taliban: the lot based in Pakistan could number somewhere between 50-100,000.

· Its hard to tell exactly, because most Taliban fighters wander in and out at will, fighting when they want, and relaxing when the want. The next problem is, how do you count the fighters? After all, if you counted fighters in a Western Army, even if you include all combat support arms, you probably would get 1 in 5 soldiers as fighters. The Taliban have a large number of supporters who help out at need. We don't think the NATO estimates includes these people.

· Original story at http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/afghanistan/article7047321.ece

· Pakistan says Baijur cleared and it will next advance on Orakzai and Khyber Agencies.

· Now, before you start snickering - as you would be justified to do given how many times Pakistan has claimed victory over the same battlefields - our information is that for the last 8-9 months Pakistan has been furiously negotiating with its recalcitrant Taliban groups to get them to focus on Afghanistan. Previously, the "bad" Taliban groups fell over themselves laughing. But now, after leadership losses caused by UAV strikes and very serious civilian damage caused by Pakistan forces, it's possible that the "bad" Taliban are willing to agree to get back to the original task, i.e., Afghanistan.

· So it is possible, we feel, that Pakistan can show the US positive "gains" by appearing to defeat the Pakistan-facing insurgents, while actually stepping up pressure on US in Afghanistan.

· You have to remember why some of the Taliban groups turned against Pakistan. It was because they felt the Pakistan government had become to cozy with the Americans, and they resented restrictions Pakistan asked them to accept to make it look to the Americans that they, the Pakistanis, were pulling their weight in this war.

· Pakistan's greatest enticement to the "bad" Taliban is that the Americans will leave soon, so why are you guys beating us up. Let's focus on Afghanistan, and if you behave you'll have a seat at the table. If you don't, well, the US will keep UAV-ing you and maybe you won't have a seat at the table.

· Pakistan cleric issues a 600-page fatwa against suicide bombers as being anti-Islam. We applaud this man's courage. We hope other clerics follow him. And we very much hope that Pakistan, having now really suffered at the hands of suicide bombers, will see it is in Pakistan's interests these attacks stop, even if it means giving up a weapon against India. If the Pakistanis see sense, they will protect this cleric and others who speak out against the bombers.

0230 GMT March 2, 2010

· President Obama pondering sharp reductions in US N-arsenal but still refuses to accept no-first-use doctrine.

· President Obama has to safeguard the US national interest as he sees best, but we'd appreciate if US defense experts could just sit still for a minute and listen: as long as the US believes it has to keep a N-force of thousands of warheads, even if that comes down to 1000 or 800, there is absolutely no country in the world - and we include India, Pakistan, Iran etc - who will de-nuclearize. America can try till the cows come home, are sent to the glue factory, the glue is recycled and maybe nano-technology is used to turn the glue into new cows, no one, but no one, will agree. If the US cannot see that, then Editor has to regretfully conclude American planners are incompetent. The only the only way to get anyone to de-nuclearize is to offer to get rid of the US arsenal as part of universal N-disarmament.

· Further, if US will not renounce first-use, well, sorry about that, but everyone else will consider N-weapons not just legitimate, but imperative to deter the US. If US N-planners cannot see that, then - sorry about that - we have to suspect they are regularly dropped on their heads from great heights.

· The reality of the matter is that the US tacitly accepts N-weapons for allies - such as South Africa in the past and Israel in the present, and expects everyone else not a US ally to give up their weapons. The US has zero credibility in the matter of N-disarmament.

· If the US feels it must posses not just N-weapons, but a vast array and the right of first-use, we are not going to judge the US. Where we will judge the US is in its ever-present hypocrisy on the issue. We'd suggest the US simply shut up about other people's N-programs because all that hypocrisy does is aggravate others and makes the US look foolish.

· India stages offensive airpower exercise Observers from 30 countries were invited - but not from China and Pakistan. The exercise was designed to demonstrate precision-bombing capabilities such as are required to eliminate terror training camps in Pakistan Kashmir.

· It was hardly a subtle message, nor was subtlety the intent.

· Our problem with such demonstrations is that Pakistan is perfectly aware that Indian airpower can attack the terror camps - and probably without entering Pakistan-controlled air space in most cases. But the Pakistanis believe, with excellent justification based on decades of experience with India, that India does not have the guts to hit back.

· So what's neccessary is not to stage another exercise to impress anyone, but to actually get up and do the job. That will send the message India wants, not puffery. To us this exercise looks a lot like whistling in the dark, from the political angle. From the military angle, like anyone else, India has to stage full-scale exercises on a regular basis. As far as we are concerned it does nowhere near enough in this area.

· A TOE question from a reader What is the TOE of a German mechanized infantry company? Do the company's platoons have three Marder 2s or four?

· Editor's note Can any of our readers help: I think its 2 Marders in the company HQ and three platoons with 4 Marders each, but its been years since I looked into any TOEs except for US and South Asia.

0230 GMT March 1, 2010

Is Hakeemullah Mesud dead? Top Pakistan/US officials say he is. But Long War Journal sources say he may well be alive. Read http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/02/taliban_release_vide.php

· Dubai police chief wants Mossad head to man up and admit Hamas murder If this is what passes for Arab cunning, then we must admit we have overestimated the Arabs. We'd like the police chief to man up and admit he has no idea who dunnit. We think we're pretty cunning too.

· Reader Luxembourg forwards a Wall Street Journal article by former US CIA operative Robert Baer. Mr. Baer does not think a 26-person hit team is too large. We were willing to accept 16-18 as neccessary and were highly skeptical when the Dubai police increased the suspects to 26. He further says that Dubai has top-notch security consultants that can quickly correlate cell-phone calls and images from security cameras and suggests that several calls placed to suspect numbers may have provided the consultants with clues as to identities.

· We're wondering what happens is an innocent guest at the hotel happens to overhear a friendly accent and says to one of the suspects "What ho, Old Bean, are you also from XYZ?" The suspects, acting normally, have a normal conversation with their fellow countryperson and continue on to their skullduggery, but the cameras have captured the innocent person talking to the guilty. So does he now get labeled as suspect?

· Intelligence agencies do make the most ghastly errors and to say: "Oh, the Mossad is so professional it would never muck up like this" is to use illogical reasoning.

· At the same time, we have to ask: Israeli informers permeate Palestine. Why go to all this trouble to kill the man abroad? And, okay, so perhaps there is a reason he had to be killed abroad. We find it difficult to believe that Mossad did not know about Dubai cameras etc.

· You may say, "Well, what about the American snatch team who got the cleric out of Italy? They left a a trail as wide as the Mississippi." We're unsure if that lot was actually undercover. They seem to have used their legal diplomatic identities. They would have seen no need to use covers if they were working with an Italian police or intelligence agency.

· Of course, the general problems with these episodes is the more you analyze, the more you are likely to miss the truth.

· A different perspective on Pakistani militants A Pakistani economist says that "Various groups find it extremely easy to create parallel states within the state, when the "national" state fails to take care of individual security and cannot provide basic services such as food, shelter, health, and education to everyone. Growing militarization in Pakistan can be understood in this context. Generally "militants" are perceived to be Islamic hard-liners. However, many "militants" are those who are outraged by chronic hunger, endemic corruption, unfair courts, and the government’s inability to supply basic services." http://www.jang.com.pk/thenews/feb2010-weekly/nos-27-02-2010/pol1.htm

· He further notes that "Food security ranking of 131 districts in Pakistan, according to FIP 2009, indicates that 48.5 percent of the total population in 76 out of 131 districts of Pakistan is food insecure. The population in another 26 districts is on borderline and extremely vulnerable to any external shock.

· The 10 most food insecure districts according to this report include Dera Bugti, Musa Khel, Upper Dir, North Waziristan, Muhmand, Dalbidin, South Waziristan, Orakzai, and Panjgur. Other worst food insecure districts, according to FIP2009 are Bajur, Laki Marwat, Lower Dir, Shangla and Malakand etc. The international community might not have heard of these districts in the context of food insecurity. However, many people would easily recall that these districts are perceived as the "axis of evil" within Pakistan. There is no empirical evidence to prove that food insecurity is the only cause of militancy in the above-mentioned districts. However it is an established fact that food insecurity leads to violence and conflict."

· We've been told by Pakistanis that most militants are not driven by religion, but because of the feudal nature of the Pakistani state, and particularly because the little man gets no justice when he runs afoul of vested interests.

· The first Patriot battery to deploy to Poland as part of the interim ABM defense will arrive in April. Readers will recall that President Obama cancelled deployment of 10 Ground Based Interceptors on grounds that the utility of the move was not proved, and promised to replace them with 30 ground based Aegis 3s in one field, with another field to follow somewhere in North Europe. At least one Aegis ship will be kept on permanent station in the Persian Gulf, at least as part of the interim defense.

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