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We wish some pattern could be discerned in Pakistan ISPR's statements. Yesterday it modestly said it had captured Mingora, but fighting was still going on in the suburbs. If this humility was not sufficiently startling, the official military spokesperson said Mingora was only one city, there was a lot of fighting yet to be done in Swat.
So what's going on here? After big claims of immediate success in Buner, Lower Dir, and Swat, of a sudden ISPR has become more realistic? Or is Pakistan angling for more money from the US on the grounds it has a hard fight ahead? Or is it a ploy to slow down ops, so that when Uncle says "why aren't you fighting", Pakistan can say "we told you this is a long drawn out process"?
Or - as is probably the case - are we being too clever by half in trying to read rational motives into the ISPR statement and that as it almost always is, ISPR is simply confused and erratic?
Mandeep Singh Bajwa says five more units have reinforced Pakistan forces in the ongoing operation. "Unit" in the South Asian CI context means battalion, either infantry, mechanized infantry, armor, or artillery. We suspect that this is not a real reinforcement but a rotation. Some units have been engaged for a month now and probably need rest.
Mandeep says the Army SF and the Frontier Corps SF Unit have been doing most of the heavy fighting; the regular infantry won't go in without full support from artillery and fighters.
You're probably waiting for some snarky comment by the Editor, but you aren't going to get it. The "last 100 meters" experience must be the most terrifying thing in life. That's when you have to leave cover, and advance to close with the enemy - who is under cover and likely you don't even know where he is - and you are just waiting to get shot down. Editor is not going to blame anyone for wanting the most intense fire ahead of your advance. It was bad enough in the days people had 5-round bolt action rifles. It got worse when people got 20-round semi-auto rifles. But nowdays, when every bad guy seems to have at least a 30-round full-auto, often with two magazines taped together, the last 100-meters is going to scare the heck out of anyone.
Mandeep says the Pakistanis are probably NOT understating their casualties by much but they aren't saying how soldiers have been captured and how many have deserted. Its likely the captured figure is low, because by now the Pakistanis know what happens if they become POW.
Taliban Strength In Swat We somewhere saw and forget to note the source a Pakistani statement that the Taliban have 2000 men in Swat. This is the first time a realistic figure has been used. Otherwise its all 4-7,000.

Afghanistan Heats Up...

...as US troops pour into the country Don't let Orbat.com focus on Pakistan obscure another tough campaign under way. In many ways its harder than Swat because the Taliban have been entrenched for many years, and US forces are relative strangers to the country. Conversely, the US has unmatched intelligence, firepower, air mobility, and medevac capability.
Please note US troops are not charging anyone with bayonets fixed, so no one should expect the Pakistanis to do what the Americans are not. A life is a life, no matter what the nationality or the color of the soldier's skin. The Americans, as always, immediately call in horrifically intense firepower the moment they run into opposition.

The Indian Army and Firepower in CI

We've been told the Indians have been watching the Americans, Pakistanis, and Sri Lankans very carefully. The policy of restricting firepower in CI may get modified, particularly with the IAF going around talking of pin-point attacks. Well, we know what pin-point attacks are doing in Pakistan and we honestly do not believe air support has any role in most CI situations. But don't be surprised if soon you hear the Indians are upping firepower support.
As for firepower in conventional warfare, India has completely changed its policy of relying on a minimum of firepower and a maximum of charging around. You saw that in the 1999 Kargil War, where theoretically on certain days the artillery available was two battalions for every attacking infantry battalion. An Indian battalion earlier could not count on more than a single battery.
In the 1962 War, of course, for a brigade to have an artillery battery in support was exceedingly rare. 114 Brigade in its defense of Chushul had an 8-gun battery. But 7 Brigade at the Ia Drang had no guns. Two light guns available had no sights. Similarly, we don't recall 11 Brigade at Walong having artillery. Forget artillery, even heavy mortars were not available.
And since Indian battalions generally fought in isolated companies, at best 2 x 3-inch mortars were available. For the epic battle of Rezang La, the brigade commander made sure the two mortars with C/13 Kumaon had 1000 rounds between them, which was as good as it got for the infantry in those days. By the time the second mortar crew was cut down, the two tubes had fired 994 rounds within about four hours.
The only protection the infantry had were parapets of collected stones. Bringing construction and fortification material several hundred kilometers from Srinager across several high mountain ranges, with the last part of the journey dependent on mules, was a horrific undertaking. And the Rezang La position was - if we recall - about 15-18 km from the brigade HQ, making it even more isolated.
When 114 Brigade pulled back from Chushul everyone walked, including the brigade commander. There were no vehicles and no question of air evacuation.
As for the poor fellows at Rezang La, there was no evacuation problem. Facing 4 PLA battalions with possibly a fifth entering battle, 111 of the 116 Kumaonis died at their posts rather than retreat without orders - and as the wire was cut at the start of the battle, there were no orders. Troops at outposts in the Chushul area (north) and Demchok (south) could see fire flashes in the winter early morning dark, but there was no reinforcements to be spared - and even if available, they would have required hours of trekking to reach, which would have been too late. The battalion at Demchok had to stop the PLA from getting into the river valley the Indians held, and then attacking Chushul from the south. As for Chushul, the priority was to defend the airfield, which was under heavy attack from the east. (Rezang La, a pass, gave access to Chushul from the south and so had to be held. A battalion with an artillery battery and time and material to build fortifications could have held the position for perhaps three days. A single company simply had no chance. But Army HQ could not stand up to the politicians, who had grandiose ideas about defeating 3-4 PLA divisions with three brigades which had almost no firepower.
Of the 5 men who survived, four made it only because the mortally wounded company commander who they carried ordered them to leave him and save themselves.

0230 GMT May 30, 2009

Attack on ISI office in Lahore

Mandeep S. Bajwa

Pakistan Inter Services Intelligence’s Section K, responsible for handling Khalistani Indian Sikh separatists, suffered 100% casualties in the Taliban attack on Lahore. The section is housed in the front of the ISI building, which is adjacent to a police station. Of its strength of 36, ten were killed and 25 injured.
Section K, however, scored a success by murdering one of the visiting holy men belonging to a Sikh sect consisting of Dalits (lower castes) at their Sikh gurdwara (temple) in Vienna, Austria. This subsequently set off rioting in Punjab State, with considerable damage to government and private property.
The ISI has for a long time been trying to instigate inter-caste and inter-community conflicts in India.

Wrong Pakistan Claims On Taliban Leadership Casualties

Read article at http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2009/05/pakistan_boosts_boun.php
NWFP operations From Associated Press of Pakistan, May 29: "The security forces have killed 28 more terrorists including six of their area commanders and seven others including two their area commanders were apprehended in various areas of Swat during different incidents of exchange of fire and cordon and search operations. According to an update for last 24 hours, issued on Friday by ISPR on Operation Rah‑e‑Raast, five security personnel and two civilians were also injured, in clashes with terrorists."

UK Reinforces SF in Afghanistan

Two squadrons of 22 SAS (about 70 men each) are enroute to Afghanistan to join the special Boat Squadron (Royal Marines) already there. Additional SF troops are arriving, from the special Reconnaissance Regiment and the special Force support Group (formerly 1 Parachute Regiment. (Times London)

Sri Lanka

Times of London says 20,000 civilians used as human shields by the Tamil Tiger died in the last phase of the war, mainly due to Sri Lanka artillery and mortars, and many due to the insurgents firing on those trying to escape. Times bases its estimate on photographs taken from a helicopter during the UN Secretary General's flyover of the insurgent zone.
Times acknowledges the insurgents committed a warn crime by using the civilians as human shields, but says Geneva requires combatants to use utmost restraint even when the enemy is using civilians as human shields.]
We heartily agree with Geneva and the Times.
Now all that remains is an expose of if the UK-US led attack on Iraq in 1990 and again in 2003 meet the Geneva standard, as also the US campaign in Afghanistan and the Pakistan Army's campaigns in the NWFP. On Israel we accept Times has been active in exposing civilian casualties and we accept that in practical terms Israel cannot be touched.

0230 GMT May 29, 2009

Business As Usual...

DPRK West: usual toothless threats. DPRK: usual toothless threats.
Pakistan Taliban strike again, in Peshawar. Pakistan government does not feel the necessity to make boastful claims about its great successes against the Taliban, at least for one day. US wants to know why Pakistan cannot target Taliban leaders and end the matter; thus continuing its standard idiocy in demanding of others what it can't do itself.
Israel-Palestine Standard US-Palestine verbal garbage about Israel needs to stop expanding West Bank settlements. Israel says "you and who's crippled great grand aunt is gonna make us?". President Obama's Mideast initiative finished before the bride and groom even got together to make an attempt at conception.
Amnesty International Usual condemnation of Israel for civil casualties in 2008 Gaza operation. Israel as usual responds by saying Amnesty is one-sided, without explaining how killing 1400 civilians and devastating tens of thousands of homes in exchange for a dozen Israeli killed is not one-sided.
United States as usual has nothing to say about its out of control ally, a spunky nation of 6-million that tells the Americans, 300-millions strong, what to do, and then tells the America to kiss its rear for the privilege of being permitted to serve the Israelis, and then does a Number 1 job and Number 2 job on the American leg.
Iran's Prime Minister goes "blah blah blah blah" and continues displaying his strategy to make Iran a great nation: he is going to bore us all to death, leaving the Iranians as the sole survivors on earth. This evil strategy is not going to succeed: long before her bores us all to death we'll have committed suicide, anything is better than having to listen to the man. and for heaven's sake, can't he at least brush his teeth and shave? What is with revolutionaries and their lack of personal hygiene?
American Idol usual controversy about winner; Americans once again conclusively prove they have no life. Can't we go and invade someone just to break the monotony? We are sure the people of Montserrat need liberating.
Klasse Klowne Hugo Chavez has run out of opposition people to suppress and foreign companies to nationalize. He now plans a 4-day TV show of which he will be star. If Mr. Piggy doesn't eat himself to death first. His strategy to defeat the US is to challenge President Obama to a fight where he will begin and end by falling on Mr. Obama and crush the latter to death. Rumor says the Russians have been contracted to build the most powerful crane in the world to to return Hugo from a prone position to a standing position. Bookmakers in London give 3 to 2 odds the crane will tip over before the operation is concluded.
Italy's 72-year old President is now unable to seduce any female over the age of 18 because of his lack of class. Rumor says he has been having it off with a 17-year old, which would seem a bit ick-making from the 17-year old's viewpoint. Age of consent in Italy is 16. President swears on his children he did not have an affair. Can you please have some decency and leave your kids out of this?
Editor Orbat churns out his usual daily pointless update which makes no sense even after readers each have four double vodkas.
The sun rises in the east and sets in the west as if there is some purpose to it all. After all, the universe comes to an end when it wants to and doesn't give a passing belch that our sun exists.

0230 GMT May 28, 2009

Mingora Falls To Pakistan Forces

For once we have no difficulty in believing the Pakistan Government when it says it has taken Mingora. The Taliban said they were leaving and they have left. This is a victory, however temporary, and however pre-arranged. What comes next comes next; for now, Pakistan Army has Mingora.
We must, however, scold the Pakistan Government for its bad taste claiming 260 Taliban were killed in the Battle for Mingora. Was there a battle in the first place, or just some sharp actions between stay-behind delaying forces and the advancing government troops, who have now stashed their weapons and reverted to their role as law-abiding residents?
And will the Pakistan Government be telling us about how one day it can claim no Taliban will escape because of the cordon and the next day it can say they have run away. Pray tell, how many prisoners did you take? 10? 20? 'Tis was not a famous victory.
Pakistan forces attack a South Waziristan target Good, the US has twisted Pakistan's tail enough that the later has made at least one strike. 8-10 insurgents killed. Poor 8-10 civilians killed and now the locals have a bunch of unexploded ordnance to cope with.
The Taliban Strike Back People are pretty upset about a Taliban combined suicide-bombing/attack on a police station in Lahore, capital of Punjab and Pakistan's second largest city, about 30-km from the capital. The Taliban were trying to get into an ISI building adjacent to the police station; Bill Roggio at www.longwarjournal.org says one or more attackers did penetrate the ISI building, and seven intelligence employees died in the truck blast and attack along with perhaps twice-three times the number of police. Wounded is very high, 300.
Our reaction? To be honest? Yawn City. This was totally expected, more attacks will take place all through the year. Sure, the Pakistan offensive lends urgency to counter-attacks, but even if the Pakistan government had done nothing, additional attacks against Islamabad/Lahore were in the cards.
You can guess that this particular Taliban group was not an ISI group. Its possible it never was, but its also possible it was and for one of many reason the ISI and this group became enemies.
Hypocrisy Update International agencies asked Pakistan Government to cease fire in Swat to allow civilians to reach safety. Pakistan government said: "Are you guys bananas? You want us to lose operational momentum for the sake of civilians?"
Looking at things as we do from the military side, the Pakistan position is 100% reasonable.
But so was the Sri Lanka Government's refusal to cease fire when the insurgents were on their last legs.
Sri Lanka's reward for having destroyed an insurgent group the US called the most dangerous in the world? Increasing calls for war crimes investigations.
Pakistan's reward for doing the same as Sri Lanka? Pakistan interest groups lobbying for even more aid than the $7.5 billion over 5 years already committed.
Editor's computer has taking to chirruping loudly at random intervals. Doubtless its relaying a message from the Mother Ship that its time to go home and giving rendezvous coordinates. Problem is, Editor has no idea what the darn computer is saying. Why can't everything speak English?

0230 GMT May 27, 2009

The Taliban Cry "Auntie"

Yesterday the Taliban asked for a return to the Swat peace agreement. This is the same agreement that was given them and they proceeded to violate by taking over Buner District and pushing into several other districts.
Normally that would signal that the Taliban fear military defeat. So why is Orbat.com not celebrating the Pakistan government victory?
Because there is nothing normal about the Taliban or the Pakistan Government or this most recent campaign.
First, the Taliban are nowhere near defeated. They engaged the Pakistan forces with a small fraction of their strength, and even as they gave way in some areas, they continued expanding into others. In the areas in which they gave way, such Buner, they simply pushed off to fight another day, or left plenty of sleepers behind so that they can take over Buner again in days. Ditto Lower Dir, and ditto Peochar and Mingora in Swat. Moreover, they very much still control huge swaths of all three districts.
Second, this is not your usual insurgency/counterinsurgency. In the usual situation, both sides are enemies, and they fight till one or the other is defeated. But in Pakistan, the Taliban and Government are frenemies. They work together on some objectives - Indian Kashmir and Afghanistan, and they fight against other on other objectives - Swat, for example.
The Pakistan Government continues to fully support the insurgents fighting in Kashmir and Afghanistan.
Ever since all major jihadi groups have decided to fight under one umbrella, it no longer matters to us if the group in Kashmir is called the ABC, or the XYZ, or the Doodoos or the Peepees. To us, they are all Taliban, and the only good Taliban is a dead Taliban.
The Indians and the jihadis are not frenemies Whereas Pakistan has, let us just say, ambigious relationships with the Taliban/jihadis, something unfortunate happens when the insurgents come to Indian Kashmir: they get killed just as quickly as they come. They have scored no victory in 25 years, and they will score no victory in the next 25 years, because unlike the Pakistan government, the Indian government is not of two minds regarding the jihadis. It kills the jihadis, and commits whatever resources are needed - 100,000 troops, 200,000 troops, 300,000 troops, it does not matter. India is perfectly happy to go up to 500,000 or 1-million, or whatever is needed.
You want normal, with India you got normal: no negotiations, no peace deals, no accommodation. If you are an Indian Kashmiri fighting with the insurgents, the Indians give you a chance to reform. But if you are a jihadi, lets say its a one way trip to Houri Heaven: you are not taken prisoner.
In a nutshell all that is happening in the NWFP is that the Taliban is calling for a timeout, and after much humphing and grumphing about "we will not fall for this again, they will all be finished off" the Pakistan government will accept the call.
Please also note Pakistan says 100-120 Taliban attacked a government position in Dir from three sides but were repulsed. If you know the area, and if you know the Taliban, you will not be surprised that a company-sized unit just appeared out of nowhere despite four weeks of supposed defeats. This is an example of what we mean when we say this is not a normal campaign.
By the way at least one source referred to the Pakistan Army soldiers in Mingora as "commandos". We're wondering: has any regular unit of the Pakistan army taken part in the fighting (bar armor and artillery)? Every time there is a serious fights, its always the commandos that are mentioned. And if we're talking of the 400 US/UK trained Frontier Corps commandos, if they're still fighting in effective units and subunits, they haven't suffered significant casualties. Which likely indicates they haven't seen significant combat.

DPRK

The Norks stage another N-test The first was problematical because it seemed to be a fizzle, or possibly a big cache of conventional explosives in rock guaranteed to amplify rather than dampen seismic waves and topped with a sprinkling of radioactive material so that snoopers would detect the radioactivity and go "Ooooh, I tot I thaw a nukey bomb". The first was a 4.1 on the Richter Scale. This new test was 4.7, which could be a big fizzle. Personally we rule out the possibility of miniaturized bombs for the obvious reason of technology.
The US's reaction "How dare they, they will be punished, yada, yada, yada."
Our reaction Washington, just start dressing in pink panties, okay, because everyone - including the Norks - knows you (a) cant do a thing; (b) wont do a thing. So like, lets have some quiet dignity here in preference to like, more explosive verbal diarrhea, you know? Like, can you just shut up?

0230 GMT May 26, 2009

Everything Is Rotten In The Kingdom Of Swat

If we used the Debka.com style, we'd say: "Orbat.com intelligence sources confirm that the Pakistan Army and the Taliban forces in Mingora, Swat, reached a deal before the Pakistan Army entered the town: the Taliban will withdraw, allowing Pakistan to declare victory; the army will then withdraw, and after some months the Taliban will return."
Instead, we will tell you the absolute truth and that is: we hear rumors that both the Pakistan Army and the Taliban are tired of fighting after 4 weeks; both realize there is no chance of absolute victory; and both sides have decided on a face-saving formula that permits a return to the status quo ante. And the facts on the ground suggest the rumors are correct.
(a) Fighting has fallen off drastically in the Swat Valley. Yesterday, for instance, Pakistan army reported six Taliban dead. This is hardly the "fierce", house-to-house fighting that Pakistan government and media have been talking of.
(b) Against all belief, the Pakistan army in two days captured 8 intersections in Mingora, a town the Taliban know like the back of their hand and had fortified for a battle to the death.
(c) The Taliban commander says he has ordered his men not to fire on the Pakistan Army to avoid civilian casualties; to avoid further bloodshed, his forces will withdraw. "Maulana Fazlullah has directed all his mujahidin to stop resistance in Mingora and its surroundings to avoid hardships to the people and losses to the civilian population," Muslim Khan, a Taliban spokesman, told the AFP news agency." (http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia/2009/05/200952512307111239.html)
What is this if not Love Among The Pines, the title of a very bad movie which has the Taliban dressed as a Swat woman and the Pakistan Army dressed as a virile Punjabi male chasing each other around a tree while singing a song of no musical taste but full of innuendo about what the charming couple will do when the woman allows the man to catch her?
Further, we hear rumors that the Pakistan Army senior liaison officers with the Taliban, who include at least one major-general, have met the Taliban leaders (in person or on the wire we do not know) and decided that the main target is American forces in Afghanistan, and now is the not the time to be fighting a fratricidal war in Pakistan. We hear some of the Taliban did not want to back off and were determined to show the Pakistan army where it got off the bus, but older, wiser heads have convinced the hotheads to back down.
Unlike the first set of assertions, we have no evidence on the ground that this has happened, so readers should leave this in the realm of rumor, though in Debka style, you may treat this as a "Intelligence sources confirm...etc etc"
Should anyone be outraged? if you are, please don't waste your time and energy. Anyone with any knowledge of the situation expected a face-saving solution to the problem. Its just that Orbat.com did not think it would happen so soon. We thought the Pakistan Army would at least defeat the Taliban in Peochar and Mingora as payback for all the humiliation the Taliban inflicted on the Pakistan Army in Swat in 2007-08 before declaring the war won and going home.
Has anything changed? No. a good show has been put on for the US. At the appropriate time Taliban will break the truce and return. Meanwhile they will systematically strengthen their positions in other districts to the west and north of Islamabad, whether the Pakistan army likes it or not.
We have asked certain sources to tell us what is the status of the Taliban plan to take Peshawar and to make a major destabilizing attack on Islamabad. We may or may not get an answer. In the meanwhile, our own guess based on facts available is that both operations are on hold.
In our considered opinion, Taliban can take Peshawar when they want but anything beyond a demonstration against Islamabad would be defeated at this time.

Letter from J. Tejada on Sri Lanka

Western nations (our government included) should stay out of the affairs of Sri Lanka.
The fact that under Rajapaksa's leadership, Sri Lanka's military was able to destroy the biggest, baddest, most lethal terrorist group the world has know was no small feat.
The EU and Britain seems to play this "civilian refugee" issue as a wedge to drive between Sri Lanka's ethnic groups. That strikes me as an old tool of colonialism.
There is no way to guarantee EU's neutrality in this civil war.
In fact, it appears to me that whenever the EU tries to intervene, it is on the side of the terrorist (one living example being none other that Adele Ann Wilby Balasingham - an Aussie wearing the LTTE uniform).
If the west were to withhold aid money for the refugees, then would it accept a Sri Lanka turning to nations like China for assistance?
The fact that China has helped Sri Lanka militarily, it can expand its influence into other realms in Sri Lanka. Imagine a Chinese military presence there. Now, that would spell trouble for our position in Diego Garcia.
To conclude, I'd say, let's not negatively judge a nation that has achieved what we could only dream about. Jealousies aside, their victory is our victory.

0230 GMT May 25, 2009

Pakistan NWFP

Government says it has captured much of Mingora, the district capital of Swat. It estimates Taliban has 300 fighters inside the town. Government says it has cleared two villages in the Peochar Valley.
Elsewhere, several attacks on Pakistan security forces in other parts of the NWFP have been reported last week. In response to one such incident, Pakistani helicopters retaliated in the Orakzai Agency.
He who fights and runs away, lives to fight another day We knew this was happening from sources and also knowledge about how insurgents anywhere operate. But sometimes it better for readers to hear it from the horse's mouth. Here is the answer to our question the other day about what are the Taliban up to. For all the resistance the Pakistan army is encountering, something was not feeling quite right - its the intuition thing. For example, there is no way the Pakistanis should have taken over anything more than a corner of Mingora in a few days, and even allowing for the usual gross exaggerations, intuition said they had taken more of the town than was logical.
Read http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Politics/25-May-2009/Taliban-lying-low-to-fight-another-day for answers.

Somalia

The African Union has proposed a no-fly zone over Somalia and a blockade of the coast to prevent Eritrea from sending arms for Islamists into the country. Eritrea has recalled its ambassador to the AU.
In Mogadishu, fighting continues between rebels and government forces. A UN source estimates the rebel force numbers about 2000. The UN force is forbidden to open fire except in self-defense and has been unable to aid the government. Refugees continue fleeing the capital.

Sri Lanka

Tamil rebels concede their leader is dead.
Meanwhile, the UN/West is determined to make a complete ass of itself by insisting that war crimes must be investigated, and the condition of 300,000 refugees in camps must be improved, or aid will be blocked. Sri Lanka says that it must screen the refugees, all of whom are from previously held rebel territory.
As for war crimes, if the UN/West has figured out how to fight a Counter Insurgency without collateral damage to civilians, we suggest it first implements this magic trick for itself and its own allies.
It is absolutely absurd to come down on the Sri Lankans for killing civilians who the rebels used as human shields. How are you going to avoid civil casualties when the fighting is confined to an area of a few square kilometers and there are a hundred thousand or more civilians trapped? Oh yes, Sri Lanka should have ceased fire, right? And let the LTTE leadership escape? And deny itself its final victory after a 26 year war?
We have a suggestion: let the US investigate Pakistan war crimes in its intensive shelling, bombing, and strafing of civilian areas for a month. Lets declare a ceasefire in Mingora and let the civilians flee. Is the US prepared to do that? Obviously not. So why is Pakistan getting a free pass and you are after Sri Lanka's life?
We strongly object to the UN/West sticking its nose where it is neither welcome nor required. It is unbridled racism to attack Sri Lanka and have nothing to say about Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, where large numbers of civilians have lost/are losing their lives. The number of refugees in Iraq and outside is in the millions, they have no future, but we don't see the UN, US, UK, EU etc. worrying about Iraqi refugees. Nor do we see the West doing anything about Palestine refugees aside from giving money and wringing hands as Israel takes over more of Palestine each passing day. You want to talk about prison camps, what about Gaza?
Complete and utter bosh which needs to stop right now. Either be fair and sanction everyone, even US/UK and Israel, or stay out of things.

0230 GMT May 24, 2009

The BBC map we ran yesterday is apparently taken without attribution from www.longwarjournal.org with slight alteration of color and the marking of Chitral as under government control.

Pakistan NWFP: Color Us Confused

Taliban Still Control Swat: Washington Post Okay, we didn't need WashPo to tell us that, a day earlier Bill Roggio posted an article saying precisely the same thing but with less magazine-style writing. That isn't what confused us.
We cannot understand why the ISPR allowed in journos, took them around, and let the Pakistan divisional commander in Swat speak frankly, completely contradicting what ISPR has been saying.
For example, ISPR has been putting out that once Mingora, the Swat District HQ is under government control, the battle for Swat will be won because its the most important town. Now, any idiot can tell that while the loss of Mingora will be a blow to the Taliban, they still run amok in Swat, and in any case they will be back. But the divisional commander told the journos it will take months to get the Taliban out, and that they control the valley roads with the exception of short stretches. All true, but again, how come a division commander is permitted to go completely off message and shoot down all the rosy projections and claims ISPR has been making?
ISPR and Occam's Razor if you follow the words of this great military PR agency - which thankfully we don't have to because others do the job - and if you adopt the simplest explanation, you will simply say ISPR is being completely incompetent as usual.
But even we are having trouble with this. No one can be that stupid. Our thesis, presently limply because of ISPR's record ("Yes, Carolina, ISPR can be that stupid") is that Pakistan is setting the stage to reduce its efforts against the Taliban and to plead with the US for even more aid. "Look, we've done some hard fighting but we cannot complete the job with the tools at hand, not even with the additional aid."
Now, the US knows jolly well Pakistan is not doing anywhere near its best. For one thing, you can't say you've lost just 60 soldiers/paramilitary in what is going on to four weeks of combat. Sri Lanka recently said it lost 6000 killed in the two-year final campaign against its insurgents: that's 60 soldiers a week for two years. That's coming closer to doing your best. And incidentally, Sri Lanka used plenty of firepower just as the Pakistanis are doing.
We know there are major differences in the two situations, but we're trying to make a general point here. So we don't think the US is going to fall for the Pakistani line, but then, what do we know, we're only from Iowa. We know the US has consistently fallen for Pakistan's line for eight long years despite darn nearly everyone on the operations side screaming loudly the Pakistanis are taking the US for a ride.
Reversal on South Wazoo This is a good case study of how the Pakistanis do things if you are new to Pakistan security affairs. Its obvious to an IQ 60 person that you aren't going to get the Taliban cleaned up without going into their real strongholds, which are several districts bordering Afghanistan. So President Zaradari has been loudly proclaimed the military will go into South Waziristan, anywhere and everywhere needed to finish the Taliban.
Lets ignore for a moment the Taliban are in effect a branch of the Pakistan military, and only recently have turned like rabid dogs on their masters, but Pakistan still maintains/supports large segments of the Taliban, particularly the ones fighting in Afghanistan; as such Pakistan is not about to finish the Taliban no matter what the US says. Lets take President Z at his word.
So: panic in South Wazoo, people start fleeing, Pakistan opens two new camps for 200,000 that have fled in the first wave, President Z speaks firm of jaw and grim of voice that Pakistan will not be moved, like a rock beside the water or whatever songs they sing in Islamabad. Fine.
The yesterday President Z says he has been misquoted and Pakistan is not going into South Wazoo. We'll excuse if you now say: "What the dash dash dash dash?" (Bad word spelled out in dashes - dash is a 4-letter word, get our subtle meaning?
First, President Z has not been misquoted, he has been saying he's going in for days now. When you say something ten times and then deny you said it, people heard wrong, it's usual for people to call for the little men in the white coats (or is it the white men in little coats? We are so hilarious).
Second, is the Pakistani government being its usual stumblebum self or is it being devious? Back to our thesis of "we need more aid, much more aid, very much more aid."
Hard to say. That something like 20,000 Taliban are waiting in the Wazoos, North and South, for the Pakistan Army, with thousands more coming from Afghanistan, may have something to do with this sudden caution.
On a more serious note we wonder: are the Taliban preparing to reinforce Swat, or are they going to trade space for time and then go on the counteroffensive? Or are they unwilling to delay their planned Afghanistan offensive and have sent some reinforcements to Swat, Dir, Buner to hold off the Pakistanis till the winter? Or - since the Taliban High Command consists of many different groups that are cooperating as suits them and doing their own thing as suits them - is the High Command telling the Swat/Buner/Dir lot "Look, this is your thing and not part of our grand plan; so we'll let a few hundred volunteers reinforce you if they want to fight with you, you'll always have our money and supplies, but you're on your own?"
Honestly, we have no clue. We know where to find the people who know. But we are confident we are not going to get them to talk to us except in person. and when Editor's first, second, and third priority is to make sure he has enough money to pay next month's mortgage, obviously he is not going anywhere. Plus as you know Editor never goes anywhere without his Teddy Bears. He has no problem risking getting shot. Anything to escape the monotony of his life: much more of the same and he's going to go 4-paws in the air anyway. But he is not risking his Teddys in a war zone or even in India. They cant stand noise and crowds.
A last thought A Pakistani infantry battalion has close to 900 men, a brigade with its share of division troops has 4000, and the division base has 3000 (very roughly). Corps troops amount to 10,000. So again, very, very roughly, for 30 infantry battalions (nine brigades) you need 55,000 troops.
Those 30 infantry battalions will have - very approximately - 500 fighters including crew-served weapons like mortars, ATGMs, and medium machine guns. So 9 brigades will give you 15,000 fighters.
Out of those 15,000, very roughly again, two-thirds will be protecting bases, rear areas and the L of C. You'll have 5000 fighters left over to do the fighting.
Its not terribly complicated, folks.
You are not going to clear 5,000 Taliban out of Swat, Buner, Dir, Shangla, Battagram, Mardan etc etc etc with 5,000 fighters. Particularly as the insurgents are leaping around gazelles whereas you need 70 vehicles per infantry battalion alone - not counting brigade, division, corps troops. This limits your ability to move around. Sure the Taliban have vehicles - but these are pickups. And a few suffice to support a Taliban battalion. all fails the Taliban can simply hand over their vehicles to local supporters and push off across the mountains.
And by the way, no one seems to have a clue how many auxiliaries are available to support the Taliban.

0230 GMT May 23, 2009

NWFP

Please read http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2009/05/swat_offensive_stall.php for details on the latest situation in Swat. Its important that you take time to explore the links in the article as they will help you get a better picture.

Afghan Taliban moving into Pakistan says National Public Radio, quoting a senior US commander. Usually the traffic is from east to west.
There are two ways of looking at this. One, its a good thing because it will reduce the pressure against the coming US offensive in South Afghanistan if Afghan Taliban are going to Pakistan to fight. It also implies that the Taliban have decided their brothers need help.
Two, its a bad thing because the last thing we need is more Taliban arriving in the combat area. As it is on the Pakistan side there are between 10,000 and 20,000 Taliban. The phrase "battle hardened" applies to the Afghan Taliban more than to the Pakistan Taliban, as the former have been facing the might of the United States for the last three years, whereas the Pakistan Taliban have been facing only the Pakistan Frontier Corps for the most part.
Shangla we learn from the Long War Journal article above, via a link to Jang of Pakistan, that the Taliban actually overran the district HQ at Shangla in 2007 before they were forced out - or withdrew. Now a party of 70 has been sighted, and it has set up camp just 4-km from a Pakistan security forces camp.
To us this is baffling, but alas all too typical of the way the Pakistan security forces have been acting all these years. They coexist, not fight.
One irate Swat resident has told the BBC (there is a link to that article in the LWJ story above) that all over Swat the Taliban and Pakistan Army are NOT fighting each other, but have their check posts almost cheek-to-jowl. All we can say is: "Wow. Just like its been all over the NWFP since 9/11." Peculiar, no?
Mogadishu BBC says pro-Government launched a major counterattack against Islamist rebels who seized large areas of the city in recent fighting.
BBC's estimate of Taliban presence in NWFP from

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8046577.stm

0230 GMT May 22, 2009

NWFP The Pakistan Army continues to advance on all fronts. The dastardly insurgents continue to die like flies. Pakistan has killed 1100 of the miscreants ("Miscreants"?) for the loss of just 60 of its own troops. Pakistan will go in Waziristan. Its gonna be a long haul but Pakistan will win.
Or so says the Government. Even the little news that was independently emerging from the combat zone seems to have dried up. So honestly we can say nothing of any consequence. Except maybe the Indian Army needs to send teams for study of the Pakistan army, since the Indians never, ever, managed a 20:1 kill rate against Pakistani insurgents in Kashmir. Guess Indian army is not as smart as we thought. Strange we didn't know the Pakistan Army had all these CI skills so much in advance of what the Indian Army has after 50 years of CI on division, corps, and army level.
BMD We did some more reading: the Multiple Kill Vehicle has been terminated by Defense Secretary Gates and the long-range interceptor deployment will be stopped. Instead US will focus on boost phase defense. Frankly, we know nowhere enough to make a judgment on this.
The Boeing 747/ABM laser program is being put back into R and D; a second platform to push the program further is being shelved; there is no mention of when the 24 aircraft originally planned will become operational, if ever.
The Central European interceptor is quite different from the Alaska/California interceptors, we learn for the first time. It has two stages, not three, is lighter, and has a shorter reaction time. We looked at a US Missile Defense agency document on its website showing the Central European deployment cannot catch Russian ICBMs fired at the US. No one has explained to us why it is wrong for the US to defend itself against Russian missiles.
And please no one tell us that we shouldn't deploy missile defense because "deterrence" must be maintained. Who says? A government has a duty to protect its people. Telling an enemy "see, we aren't going to defend ourselves against your annihilating weapons just to show you we don't plan to attack you", is not protecting your people. Did the people give you their assent to use them as pawns in your filthy lunatic games and if you make a mistake the people die?
UFOs For the first time, Editor tonight understood the how/when/why of people seeing UFOs. On his way to the gym at 0200 GMT (2100 Eastern US), he was about 3 km as the crow flies away from his house. It was deep dusk with just a trace of light in the west. As he was driving, he noticed a large, very black silent object with three very bright lights hovering over the trees directly ahead of him. Now, since he knows all about atmospheric distortion and so on, it didn't take him but half a second to think: "What the...why is that huge Jumbo sized aircraft hovering quietly over the trees not 100 meters away?". Then the plane - still quietly - but very slowly, pulled away over the treetops.
It still looked as if it was 100-meters away, but as it moved it was easy to see it wasn't a Jumbo, but more like a 737 or perhaps 757. Obviously it had to be several thousand feet in the sky, but the combination of dark and very last light made it look like it was on top of the trees. It looked stationary because it was coming head on, and when Editor could see it was moving, it was obviously appearing to move very slowly because it was making a shallow turn to get back into the flight path for National. It is not usual for planes for National to come this side, but once in a while it happens that the sky is crowded or there's a hold up at National, and planes come in low over the Silver Spring, Maryland area.
It seemed silent because its engines were throttled way back as happens when aircraft are in holding patterns. Also, if Editor remembers right National has some pretty tight noise regulations so aircraft bound there are quieter than usual. But also, please note, that the ambient background noise was high because of evening traffic, and the Editor was at a highway that leads to/away from downtown Silver Spring, plus the 495 Beltway is just 500-meters from where he was. If you live here, you don't notice the background noise, and if the plane was throttled back, its loud hum would simply merge with the loud hum of traffic - which you're not hearing anyway.
The point is, suppose Editor didn't know all this, his brain could easily have processed all the visual information in other contexts. People today are pretty keyed up to see UFOs, or if you are "sophisticated", strange government aircraft. In the three seconds all this took, it would be very easy to think you saw a UFO.

0230 GMT May 21, 2009

NWFP

We can only repeat what the Pakistan Government is saying, and a quick look at Jang of Pakistan http://www.thenews.com.pk/updates.asp?id=78213 will show readers that the government is simply parroting formulas that have no meaning. For example, government says there is hardly any chance for spillover of insurgents to other districts as the operations planning had taken this into account. Well, it hadn't, which is why fighting has spilled over into Shangla, just as one example which the government mentions as a combat area. As usual, the insurgents have suffered heavy casualties in Shangla. The reality is that Shangla is nowhere near under control, and ironically, wasn't even on the radar when the operations were planned.
Then the government says it is proceeding with maximum care to avoid collateral damage, whereas the truth is the government is simply blasting everything in its past as said by US intelligence sources to www.longwarjournal.org and can be inferred from statements by eyewtiness who repeatedly told of being unable to escape for days because the Army - or the Taliban - were shooting up everything that moved.
Anyhows: the major gain the government claims is the taking of Sultanwas, north of Daggar, Buner District with - of course - heavy casualties to the insurgents and very light casualties to the government. Seeing as the Army is attacking, the Taliban must be total cream puffs if they are losing 10, 15, 20 men to every soldier. If the Taliban are absolute creampuffs, how come three weeks after opening of operations the Army is still stuck with advances of a few kilometers, and why are the Taliban hanging around to get slaughtered? Government claim count is closing in on 1100 dead. Allow 2 wounded per killed, and we're getting on to 3300 of the claimed 4000 in Swat plus some hundreds in Dir and Buner. If your adversary is taking 60+% casualties and still fighting for every meter, he has to be reckoned as one of the toughest fighters in the history of warfare, in which case he is not a cream puff, and nor are your casualties anywhere near as light as you claim.
Can't have it both ways, boys.
Troops are still fighting in Kanju, the suburb of Mingora in Swat, still fighting in/around Peochar in the NW of Swat, and still fighting in Matta, 25-km NW of Mingora.
Editor, ADD, and NWFP In the days before ADD and ADHD were both consolidated (or is it reconsolidated) as ADD, the Editor had, and still has, an acute case of both.
This NWFP thing is getting completely yawn-inducing, particularly since its clear that for all its big words, Pakistan army will not move into FATA, and nor will it give up its ties to the insurgents, whom it needs for its policy in Afghanistan and India.
Meanwhile, insurgents have no end of resources for the simple reason that if the Pakistan Army seriously abandons the insurgents it supports in India and Afghanistan, these gentlemen will simply join the fight alongside the Taliban. The non-Taliban groups have made clear they want Kashmir and the Punjab, and they are not going to be put off whether the government backs them or not.
However this goes, it is not going to end tomorrow, the month after, or several years from now.
Hint to Pakistan Government: get on with it and do something, or editor will turn his attention elsewhere.
Hint from Pakistan Government to Editor: that's precisely what we want, for you to get bored and drop the subject.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch...

Somalia is close to falling to Islamists. They've taken all but a few blocks of Mogadishu, most of south and central Somalia, as also Jowar, the president's home town.
Rumors fly that Ethiopian troops have entered the country - archenemy Eritrea supports the rebels and is said to be airlifting weapons and supplies to them - but Ethiopia says its not happening.
An African Islamist state with ties to Al Qaeda is all we need coming on top of the Pakistan trouble. Pretty soon US will have to do a major cleanup campaign in Somalia; the problem as always will be: who is going to run the place afterward? US is hugely overstretched in Iraq and Afghanistan/Pakistan; we're unsure if the American public will even accept a short, sharp cleaning up of Somalia which inevitably will means lots and lots of civilian casualties and lots and lots of bad press.
Don't wait on the UN for salvation, no one in their right mind wants to contribute troops for Somalia. US will have to pay proxies like East African states and Bangladesh a heck of a lot more money to get them to take on the job.

East-West Institute and ABM Effectiveness Against Iran

We did a quick look at the report in view of the Iran missile launch yesterday; we will read the report more carefully over the weekend.
Basically, we see one valid point when East-West says the ABM defense will not work. All the rest of the stuff is complete speculation about the capabilities of the US system as it exists now, not 8 years from now when Iran will have missiles to threaten the US.
The valid point is the US Missile Defense Agency says it estimates it will need to fire upto 5 missiles at each incoming missile to assure a kill. So with ten missiles, EWI says the maximum the US ABM system for East Europe can handle is a piddling two missiles.
We completely agree that an ability to protect against just two missiles is of no use except as protection against an accidental launch.
But is the solution then not to build the system, or to put in more interceptors? Next, its five to one required today. Is it still going to be 5:1 eight years down the line? Isn't the US already working on warheads that will target more than one missile? And isn't the long-range interceptor just one of a variety of systems that are/will be available?
For example, US Aegis cruisers in the Persian Gulf and Mediterranean will get to take shots against an Iran missile launch. So will Israeli ABM batteries. so will the THAAD, of which several batteries will be stationed in Europe. So will Patriot 3/successor. By the time Iran deploys its first long-range missiles, US/Europe will likely have other systems, for example, laser intercept, either ready to go or in development. Its not as if the Iranians will overnight deploy 10-20-30-40 missiles. This will all take time.
But don't forget another thing: US always has the option, if Iran starts rolling out missiles for launch, of preempting. We'll talk more about all of this.

0230 GMT May 20, 2009

Fairly Tales From The NWFP

May 12 http://www.thenews.com.pk/updates.asp?id=77444 SWAT: Pakistan army heliborne troops landed at a key Taliban stronghold in the northwest district of Swat on Tuesday, stepping up an offensive against militants, military officials said.
May 14 http://pkonweb.com/2009/05/14/troops-gain-firm-foothold-in-peochar/ The army claimed on Wednesday that security forces had gained a foothold in Peochar valley, the stronghold of Taliban leader Maulana Fazlullah, and were targeting militants’ hideouts there.
May 15 http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/pakistan/provinces/12-security-forces-claim-gains-in-dir-malakand--bi-10

Security forces thwarted an attempt by militants to destroy their base in Peochar valley, a stronghold of Tehrik-i-Taliban Swat chief Mullah Fazlullah, the military said.
May 15 ISLAMABAD/PESHAWAR: http://pkonweb.com/2009/05/14/troops-gain-firm-foothold-in-peochar/At least 60 more Taliban and nine soldiers were killed during the Swat operation on Thursday, as troops thwarted an attack on the reclaimed Taliban stronghold of Peochar.
May 19 http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/pakistan/provinces/09-security-forces-battle-taliban-in-key-swat-towns-szh--01 He (Pakistan official) said the chief objective in coming days was ‘to take over the Taliban’s main headquarters in Peochar,’ where commandos opened a new front last week.
May 20 http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Politics/20-May-2009/Afghan-militants-helping-Taliban In Peochar, the security forces are consolidating their positions...
So, folks. Either Pakistan captured Peochar and then lost it, and is claiming to still have it. Or it never took Peochar in the first place, and it is the main objective in coming days.
Conclusion: take Pakistan government statements as true at your own risk.
Food for thought "Even in Swat, where the Pakistani military is battling the Taliban, the military's effort is considered “counterproductive to counterinsurgency,” a senior US military intelligence official told The Long War Journal. The Pakistani Army’s use of “scorched earth tactics of leveling entire villages” has led to the displacement of more than 2.2 million persons who have fled the fighting. The military has also signaled it seeks a quick end to the Swat operation." This is from http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2009/05/pakistani_al_qaeda_l.php
War crimes, anyone? Oh, sorry: the Pakistanis are doing the work we want them to do for our security. Cant be a war crime.

This Passes For Logic In The Think Tank Scene

There is a think tank called the East-West Institute composed, logically enough of Russian and American experts. Two days ago it said that the US ABM deployment for Central Europe was not needed, because it could be 8 years more before Iran can deploy missiles capable of reaching the US. In any case, the type of missiles being developed by Iran cannot be stopped by the ABM system.
Well, the first statement is reasonable, and we have no trouble accepting it. But we were intrigued by what these missiles might be that cannot be stopped.
Caveat We haven't read the report yet; we will report back, likely with more ridicule, when we do. Stay tuned.
If you have an institute where you have patriotic Russians - and our experience is that Russians are pretty patriotic - and we admire them for it - you are unlikely to get even one Russian saying "I see the Americans' point of view in this ABM thing." But you will get lots of Americans saying: "We see the Russians' point of view." So if this report is a consensus, straightaway it has trash-basket value. If it is not a consensus, there would have been two reports.
So what are these unstoppable missiles? Think Dr. Evil in Austin Powers: These missiles have decoys." Gee Golly Galoshes! Stop work on ABM at once! Its a failure! The Iranians will have decoys!
Tiny inconvenient fact: both Standard and the long-range interceptor have been tested against decoys. Everyone who works on ABM knows about decoys because the Russians and Americans have had them for decades. No one in their right mind designs/develops/deploys an ABM interceptor that can't handle decoys. Even the Indian ABM, which is decades behind the US, is designed with the full knowledge it will have to discriminate between the real thing and decoys.
Ah, the East West Institute might say, but US ABM is still in testing, and pretty controlled tests. It wont work on the battlefield.
Quite right, likely US ABM can handle just 3-6 DPRK and Iran missiles of today, tops - we're talking of the long-range interceptor only, remember, US ABM is a thickly layered system with more kinds of interceptors that we can keep track of. Yes, we agree US ABM today will likely have difficulty against an Iranian offense 8 years from now.
East West Institute: did you get what we just said? We agree: the US ABM defense of today will likely have difficulty against an Iranian offense 8 years from now.
So what gives you the idea the US is going stop developing ABM for the next 8 years? How will the US defense perform 8 years from now against the Iranian threat of 8 years from now?
Another question: which one of your experts is cleared for the top top top secret briefings on the capability of the current US ABM system, leave alone eight years from now? Sure, there are very smart scientists - MIT's Ted Postel comes to immediate mind - who say US ABM will not work. But how do they know this? They have no access to classified information. And for every Ted Postel who sits in Cambridge spinning theories from silk, there are ten just as smart scientists who have worked, and are working, on ABM for 40 years. They are not spinning theories, they are working with the nuts and bolts.
Talking of secrets: the US Skipjack class attack submarines went to sea with a 1950s design reaction/propulsion system. More than fifty years have passed. Can scientists who sit at MIT and Harvard and wherever tell us what was the top speed of the Skipjacks? Another example: the 688 SSNs were designed in the 1960s and kept improving with every subsequent batch. Can some scientist tell us what was the maximum quiet speed of the 688s in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s?
There is a point to these two questions. Everyone seems to think the US is some kind of military leakfest society, where no secret can be kept. Surprise. The US very cleverly focuses on keeping secret the 1% than it really needs to keep secret. 10% it sort of keeps secret and doesnt really worry if you find out about it till 10, 15, 20 years after the system is deployed. The rest the US lets freely be known. This system has two advantages: trying to keep everything secret ends up with you not being able to keep much secret. And keeping everything secret means that hundreds and thousands and tens of thousands of people will NOT be writing in, saying : Dear Pentagon, I just read about your new warhead for the long-range ABM interceptor and I want to share this idea I have with you...
So, East West Institute, don't think you know what US ABM does and does not do. Honestly, we're willing to concede we don't much at all. Best you do too, and then bring out two separate reports: one by 10 Russians who say it wont work, and one by 10 Americans who say it will. Having 10 Russians who say it wont work, with 3 of 10 Americans joining them, does not give you an a academically rigorous document. It gives you a piece of Russian propaganda to which the Americans have given their good name.

0230 GMT May 19, 2009

Pakistan UN says 1.4-million refugees registered since May 2 and influx continues. This in addition to 550,000 displaced in earlier fighting in the NWFP. Simultaneously, government says 50,000 persons are returning to Swat and Buner because the people cannot take the heat of the lowlands. Peshawar should be well above 100F at this time of the year, absolute murder if you are a highlands person. Ask the Editor: he gets sunstroke at 90F if he spends more than a few minutes in the sun. People keep telling him: but you're from India, you should be used to the heat." Where he grew up, 85F was considered a heat wave. In the Mideast, it would get up to 125F, but it was bone-dry so you could manage to stay outside for a couple of hours at a time.
Government says all is peaceful and under complete control in Baijur.
Army said to be continuing operations in Matta, 25-km from Mingora. Re. Kanju, which is a suburb of Mingora, fighting is going on.
Government says it is making progress in Pechar Valley; no details, except a training center has been captured.
Government says it has information on the top Taliban commander directing operations in Swat and will capture him soon.
The daily claimed kill seems to be falling off and we are now down to a couple of dozen insurgents dead each day. We certainly have no explanations for this.
Now here is a statement of wonder from Dawn of Karachi: "Information Minister Qamar Zaman Kaira said military action in other areas, including South Waziristan, would be considered if insurgents found their way into those regions." So the insurgents who control South Wazoo are not to be targeted, because they are already there and not finding their way into the district? Make some sense, mon. Just because you are a politician doesn't mean you are absolved from the normal rules of logic. Are you, or are you not, going into South Wazoo and the rest of FATA? If you are not, you aren't serious about wiping out the insurgents, if you ever were till they took Buner.

This You Gotta See, Peeps

According to Seymour Hersh, say Dawn of Karachi, Mr., Richard Cheney ordered Mrs. Benazir Bhutto killed. Why? Because she said the same man who murdered Daniel Pearl also killed Osama. Okay, so what's the connection? See, Bush-Cheney didn't want OBL declared dead. So they killed Mrs. Bhutto. And they killed other too, including the Prime Minister of Lebanon.
http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/world/12-cheney-ordered-assassination-of-benazir-bhutto--bi-01
This is going to go over so well with the Pakistanis, who anyway believe the CIA is backing the Taliban to destabilize Taliban.
Read more about Seymour Hersh's assertion at http://www.alternet.org/rights/131153/seymour_hersh:_%22executive_assassination_ring%22_answered_to_cheney,_had_no_congressional_oversight/
By the way, did you know the US Joint Special Operations Command did not report to the Pentagon of the US Secretary of Defense in Mr. Bush's time. It reported to Mr. Cheney. Who is still influencing US policy says Mr. Hersh.
Now, folks, if you ever call the Editor crazy again, he's going to take serious offense. You don't even know what crazy is.

0230 GMT May 18, 2009

Sri Lanka Rebels Surrender So that's the end of that; its now up to the rebels to decide will they enter the political process or will they go back to recreating an insurgency from scratch. Reports say the rebel chief's body has been recovered, but that Sri Lanka is not saying anything because it has not been positively identified.

Pakistan: Situation all Messed up As Usual

Version 1: Pakistan Government

Pakistan Says Will Expand Operations To Waziristan If Pakistan can regain control of Waziristan, it will deal a big blow to the Taliban. Recovering Dir, Buner, and Swat will only reverse Taliban's most recent gains. If the latest declaration is to be believed, Pakistan wants to regain everything it has lost in the last 6-7 years. To us this seems extremely ambitious, but as we have said repeatedly, what is really happening will become clear in its own time. So we have to be patient.
Pakistan Army says it has reached two towns near Mingora: Matta, 25 km away and Kanju, a suburb of Mingora 2 km away. It says it aims to take Matta by today; fighting is still going on as of early morning. Gaons elsewhere are also claimed. Because so many residents have fled, there is now not even the trickle of news from non-government sources we had available earlier. US has the detailed information, naturally it is not about to share it with the public because it doesn't want to undermine Pakistan.

Confusion on troop movement from India front

We'd said the other day based on information from our trusty correspondent Major Amin that Pakistan was preparing to move troops from divisions allocated to the Indian border on top of divisions already moved: 14, 17, and 23 Divisions, the last from the Jammu and Kashmir border. Mandeep Bajwa told us Pakistan was free to move troops because India had tacitly signaled it would not take advantage of a Pakistani shift from east to west. We have confirmed Mandeep's information from other sources.
This all was mildly baffling because President Zaradari had denied the report in Pakistan's The Nation saying six brigades would move. On Friday last, the Chief of Army staff told Parliament no troops would move despite guarantees from international community. Here you have additional confirmation about Mandeep's news, but its in a much broader context: its not just India saying it will not attack, its the international community, which means the US and UK at the minimum when we talk of Pakistan.
So if Pakistan will STILL not move troops, folks, we can come only to one conclusion: its in no hurry to finish off the Taliban at very best, and will not finish off the Taliban at all, at the very worst.

Version 2: Now the really bad news

We've reported what the Pakistan Government says because it is our duty to do so. But again the Pakistan Government seems to be operating in La La Land as evidenced by http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2009/05/taliban_move_forces.php quoting Pakistan's The News (http://thenews.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=22163)
Taliban have entered yet another district. This time its Battagram, which lies to the East of Shangla District. http://www.longwarjournal.org/maps/Pakistan/Islamabad.php
We apologize for all the exclamations, but folks, even the Editor who has lived through fifty years of conflicts, is a bit nonpulsed. Lets try and explain why.
Five weeks ago, Taliban entered Buner, a peaceful backwater east of Swat. Four weeks ago, they control Buner District. Pakistan prepares a counteroffensive. Do the Taliban withdraw? They do not. They move south from Buner into Swabi District and set up in Haripur District, at the edge of which lies the national capital. Please get this straight, folks: this is equivalent of rebels arriving in northern Prince George's County, Maryland, or southern Fairfax County, Virginia. Would you not say this is very serious?
Okay, then three weeks ago the Pakistanis say: don't panic, we've begun our counteroffensive, and we are defeating the Taliban everywhere, we've not just brought Buner under control, we've retaken Dir District which we'd conceded to the Taliban under the peace agreements, and we've entered Swat because the peace agreement was finished when the Taliban entered Buner.
We then get three weeks of glowing reports about the Taliban are being whacked like flies, they are deserting, they are running away, blah and blah and blah.
Out of nowhere, when the offensive begins, Pakistan army says it has wiped out the Taliban in Shangla District, to the northeast of Buner. At which point Editor goes, Hello, everyone, but when did they take Shangla to begin with? No one told us they'd advanced into Shangla, except for Bill Roggio who said a party of 40 has been seen in that district.
Anyhows, Editor is quietly doing his own analysis, and arrives at the following conclusions: (a) in Dir, Buner, and Swat there are not 4000 Taliban as the Pakistan Government claims, but 1000. (b) The rest probably have withdrawn back into their home base, which is FATA, and indeed, there are reports of fighting in two previously quiet FATA districts. (c) Taliban probably are taking a wait and see attitude before reacting to the Pakistan counteroffensive. (d) Be prepared for Taliban to give up Swat, Dir, and Buner before they really start to fight - if the Pakistan Army goes into FATA. If it doesn't go into FATA, Taliban will return later in the year. If it does, Taliban are fighting on the home ground, they'll have the Pakistanis out before the winter.
But instead something completely different has happened. The Taliban are not retreating. They are advancing East at the same time the Pakistan Army is moving West.
Okay, now lets explain a thing or two about military intelligence. There is the non-operational sort, such as orbats, and you get it by old-fashioned spying and now, in the internet age, by combing open sources. Before the internet, we used to get the OSI the old fashioned way: reading newspapers, telephone books, other sources etc. Then there's the operational kind, which the commander wants every six hours. Here you take all the reports that are coming in and you construct a picture as accurately as possible for the commander. You have to know the enemy inside out, you have to have intuition, and you have to be flexible: at 0600 hours you have to be able to look at the stuff that came in after your last report at 1200, and you absolutely cannot interpret the new stuff according to ideas that made sense at 1200. You have to reinterpret everything completely fresh. Its this last part that's the real skill, because like or not we are given to preconceptions and to looking good. Its human nature not to want to tell the commander: the report I gave you at 1200 is complete garbage in view of new information. But then you're not doing your job.
So folks, we wouldn't be doing our job if we didn't say: scrap what we've been saying, something else altogether is happening.
That something is that the Taliban are not the least bothered Pakistan has put two divisions into Swat, Buner, and Dir. They are not bothered Pakistan has put a division west of the line Islamabad-Rawalpindi to check infiltration. They are merrily yodeling the Bear Mountain Song - "The bear went over the mountain and what do you think he saw? The other side of the mountain, that's what he saw" as they cross range after range.
If they're moving east and the Pakistan Army is moving west, you get a weird situation and Editor would really have to rack his brains to think of an equivalent. Very rarely do you have two forces attacking simultaneously - in 180-degree different directions.
So, to the point. Taliban is not bothered about the Pakistan Army, it is getting right behind the Pakistan Army and its L of C with the plains, and its getting closer and closer to Islamabad-Rawalpindi. Now is this going to freak the Pakistanis and the world or not: Pakistan says it has crushed the rebels in Swat, and the rebels casually raid Islamabad and withdraw to prepare for another attack. Everyone is going to go simply bananas if this happens, and to our mind - as of this minute, this is the only thing that makes sense if you look at the Taliban's movements.
From Shangla, where they were "wiped out", they've now moved into Battagram District, east of Shangla. In a month's time, they have pushed east 100-kilometers. They have been reported in Manshera District, which means they are not just infiltrating to the west of Islamabad, they are infiltrating to the north. You don't have to be a strategist to know this spells trouble in blazing neon letters.
You may well now say "hold your horses, boy. The reports say 150 Taliban entered Battagram and attacked a police station with four cops, whose lives they spared after the later promised to resign. What is the big deal here? 150 insurgents? One little police post? And you're going all doom and gloom on us?"
Folks, here is where you have to understand what's happening on the pure psychological front in Pakistan. France 1940. People are so scared of the Taliban advance that all over Pakistan people have simply given up hope. They are waiting for the axe to fall. It may make no sense to you and me, who are sitting outside. Pakistan's a country of 170-million, for heaven's sake. How can 10,000 Taliban take Pakistan?
See, this is where you have to put the orbats aside because when you enter the psychological realm, the orbats are not worth the paper they're written on. If people have already given up, the relative strengths don't matter. The four police the Taliban let live have by now talked to enough people who have talked to enough people that the whole darn Battagram District will be sitting here as we speak, quaking in its shoes. You see the genius here: dead men tell no tales. The Taliban are masters at this psychology game. They sap your will to fight. That's how they took Buner, all 500 of them, in a matter of a week.
Now, if Editor has not scared you enough, go back and read the report in The News that Mr. Roggio quotes. Notice the little bit about "local miscreants" who aided the Taliban? We'll tell you what that means. That's the peasants who helped the Taliban.
If Pakistan's peasants, and its urban underclass, rise up against the power elite, Pakistan is gone, ladies and gentlemen. They rose up in Swat, which is why Swat fell before any of us realized it (bar Mr. Roggio). There were four big landlords in Swat, the Taliban turned their peasants against them, and it was bye bye Swat.

0230 GMT May 17, 2009

Indian Elections

Everyone will have their own take on the Indian elections. Our take is that despite the past 25 years, where India has been under continuous attack by jihadis, and continues to be, the Indian people have overwhelmingly voted for secularism over communalism. While the Congress-led alliance will form the government, its notable that the Congress party itself gained 53 seats over 2004, for a total of 204; while the right-wing Hindu nationalist party the BJP, lost 13 seats over 2004, for a total of 118.
The left-wing parties have been wiped out. This is interesting because conventional wisdom said India's economic surge was leaving out the poor. So one would have thought the leftists would pick up seats. Instead, India's poor seem to have decided that capitalism is their salvation, not socialism - a result converse to the 2008 US election.

India, US, Pakistan

With the BJP out of the way, pressure on the government for retaliation against Pakistan will ease - much to the great relief of everyone, including no doubt the BJP, because Indian politicians are the greatest wimps in the world. Possibly even in the galaxy. Perhaps even in the universe. Ten rabbits have greater guts than all of India's politicians put together. Uh oh: frenzied rabbit demonstration outside Editor's house - sorry, fellows, apologies, three of you together have greater guts than all of India's politicians put together. That should end the demonstration. Uh oh: its become a riot: rabbits are shouting that just the whispered word "rabbit" causes Indian politicians to head for the nearest bathroom...
So much for the Editor's theory that India would at last be goaded into action against the Pakistani jihadi threat. Editor is not at the age he is for the first time worried that forget about standing up to PRC, India will not stand up to Pakistan before he goes 4-paws up.
What makes this worse is the news from Mandeep Singh Bajwa that the Indians have given the US a tacit assurance they will not attack while Pakistan is engaging the Taliban. Part of the reason for this assurance is the usual Indian tendency to be too clever by half: India wants to call Pakistan's bluff that it cant shift troops from the East because of fears about India. Part of the reason is that the Indians are worried about the Taliban. As if Pakistan will succeed in any way. Part of the reason is India's instinctive habit of sucking up to the US. We're obliging America, say the Indians, the Americans will be in our debt. As if the Americans ever give anything back unless their short and curlies are squeezed in a vice. And part of the reason is, well, that Indians are Wimps first, last, always.
If Editor was in charge of the Pakistan Army, he would as a start double infiltration into Kashmir. Just as a start, because he would have that much greater confidence that India will not retaliate.
Meanwhile, Long Live Wimpdom.

Sri Lanka

Government says the 26-year war is over as troops from two divisions driving into the tiny coastal strip till day before held by the rebels meet with much flying of flags, salutes, and congratulations.
Reports say there are still a few holdouts using several thousand civilians as shields. LTTE are blowing up their own ammunition dumps and speculation is that the holdouts are planning a mass suicide.
Sooner the better is what we say. Saves Sri Lanka having to imprison, try, and jail the remnants.

Pakistan

Government says it is closing in on Mingora, Swat from several directions. Taliban say they are ready. If Government actually attacks, it will be in a house-to-fight fight. If Government relies on firepower, well, we've seen this happen many times before starting with Stalingrad in modern times (modern by Editor's standard). You bomb-bomb-bomb, and you get growing heaps of rubble, making the defenders' positions stronger. If readers don't want to refresh themselves on Stalingrad, read about German 1st Parachute Division's defense of Monte Cassino. Sure, US reduced Fallujah to rubble, but it still fought the insurgents house by house and street by street. and no one, but no one, can lay down the firepower the US can, And we know what happened to the Russians in Grozny.
Anyway, Pakistan Army says it will fight, so lets hope it does.
Usual widespread artillery and air attacks reported. Government say at least 47 more insurgents killed yesterday.
Refugee agencies say they have registered 1.2-million refugees. US, UK, any comments? No? Thought not. Again, its okay to kill brown people for your strategic objectives. Its not okay for a country to kill its own brown people to get rid of people who have terrorized the country for a quarter-century, and who at one time controlled one-third of Sri Lanka. May be we should rename the Potomac and Thames Rivers as Honey River West and Honey River East. Heaven knows the US and UK government pour in enough - er - human waste products.
Readers also might want to read Long War Journal on how the US has stopped notifying Pakistan of UAV strikes after it found (we are shocked, shocked) that the Pakistanis were giving that information to the Taliban/AQ, allowing them to escape.
Say what you will, we have to hand it to Senator Carl Levin. Day before, he blasted the Pakistan government for tacitly backing the UAV strikes and then lambasting the US in public. He said the Pakistanis need to tell their people the truth. Is Senator Levin shocked, shocked that the Pakistanis are playing a double, if not a triple game?
The problem here is that Pakistan does not back the strikes. It says it does to get American money. So actually its lying to the US as well as lying to its own folks. That's what we meant by triple game.
Oh well, Washington, life is full of disappointments, every silver lining has a cloud, into every life a little rain must fall, there are ups and down - have we missed any cliches? Please send in your favorite cliche about Pakistan's "war" on terror. We promise to aggregate them and pass them on to President Obama

0230 GMT May 16, 2009

Pakistan Update

May 9, 2009 Pakistan Army Orbat NWFP

Additional units listed for NWFP Major A.H. Amin says NWFP deployments these include units from 10, 11, 18, 19, 33, 35, 40, and 41 Divisions. These units may be individual battalions and not necessarily complete brigades.
He feels another corps HQ may be inducted. Mandeep Singh Bajwa says if so, it may be HQ IV Corps (Lahore).
Major Amin opines that (a) if Taliban is pushed into Baluchistan from Southern Afghanistan, it may not necessarily create a difficult situation for the Pakistan Army as the US fears because the Baluchistan Taliban are not anti-army in the way of their NWFP brothers.
He also feels that because Swat is surrounded by high mountains, maintaining a cordon to prevent Taliban exfiltration is easier than would be the case for India in Kashmir. If we speak of the Kashmir Valley, this is undeniably true. But in Indian Kashmir, as in the NWFP non-Valley areas consist of long river valleys which can be theoretically easily blockaded, but in reality are not.
From the front there is no real news. Pakistan reports a counterattack on security force positions on Peochar, the Taliban stronghold northwest of Mingora in Swat, was beaten back. This assumes Pakistan forces hold Peochar.
Mr. Bill Roggio says while he cannot confirm any Pakistan Army helicopter losses, the Taliban have downed helicopters in the past and the same could be happening today.
We asked Mandeep Singh Bajwa about the Pakistan Army assaulting Taliban positions on top of mountains; he said the same thing we did: the Taliban have ample firepower, and despite air and artillery attacks, can hold their mountain positions for considerable period of time. Such positions can only be starved out (that assumes Pakistan security forces can stop infiltration in and out); in the alternative they have to be attacked on the ground, which is very costly in terms of lives.
Mandeep says the Taliban are indeed exfiltrating where hard-pressed, but simultaneously they are infiltrating other places.
By now the Pakistan army's claimed bag of Taliban is reaching 1000 killed. Assuming as many wounded, the Taliban should have suffered 50% casualties by now, and if they are still fighting, they must indeed be a formidable foe. Of course, the reality is that the insurgent casualties are nowhere near claims.
Major Amin on the CIA and Taliban Major Amin says the CIA is supporting the Pakistan Taliban with the objective of destabilizing Pakistan so that its nuclear fangs can be pulled. We mentioned this to a couple of people who thought we were crazy. Hopefully the good Major will provide us with more details.
CIA Chief Sent To Warn Israel Against attacking Iran Without Informing US? So says London Times. Mr. Panetta was supposed to have made this visit two weeks ago. The US does not want to be caught by surprise.
This line of thought may make some sense because if Israel does the needful to Iran, US is going to blamed anyway. So US might as well take precautions before the bull poopoo hits the fan.
Sri Lanka Says Ops To End In 48-hours The rebel perimeter has been further compressed to 4 square kilometers. US/UK still trying to pressure Colombo to accept a ceasefire for the sake of remaining civilians. Gentlemen, gentlemen, what about ceasing air strikes in Afghanistan for the sake of civilians? No? Didn't think so. So don't lecture small states and threaten to cut off aid. You yourself have said the LTTE are the most ruthless terrorists in the world.
Sri Lanka Army says it has landed commandos on two sides of the beach where are the last rebels, and that hand-to-hand fighting is taking place. So, US/UK, next time your troops need air support in civilian areas, why not have them fight their way out, hand-to-hand? No? Didn't think so. So its okay to bomb Afghanis rather than risk the lives of your men, but its not okay for Sri Lanka to bomb its deadly enemy? Mind explaining? Oh yes, you do everything to avoid hitting civilians. Except when your troops are being killed. Since that covers a wide variety of situations, you're basically undermining your "avoid".
Everyone has problems, US/UK. Attend to your own, and let Sri Lanka be. Or insist on the same rules for the Pakistanis. No? Didn't think so. So lets get together and sing the H-Y-P-O-C-R-I-S-Y song. Yal'll gettin' pretty darn good at it.

May 15, 2009

Pakistan Update

At last an excellent custom-drawn map has been made available at

http://www.longwarjournal.org/maps/Pakistan/SWAT12MAY09_900.php This much simplifies both analysis and reporting of the operations.

The news of the day is that the Pakistan Army says it is 16-kilometers from besieged Mingora but does not say from which direction. It also says it has reach the outskirts of Sultanwas, about 10-km as the crow flies north of Daggar.
Sultanwas, Pir Baba and Daggar are supposed to be the Taliban's strongholds in Buner, but please appreciate Taliban moved into Buner only a month ago so we are unsure what kind of strongholds they could have built. Moreover, Buner was taken by a few hundred Taliban, many of whom left to infiltrate Swabi and Mardan Districts before the Pakistani offensive began.
In the absence of any information except from ISPR, please be cautious in accepting the Army's statements. The Taliban are guerillas, so if the Pakistan Army has advanced from Point A to Point B, it doesn't mean it holds a secure L of C. The Taliban will likely be infiltrating behind the advance, seeking to cut it off. Also, just because - for example - a Pakistani patrol has advanced to Point B doesn't mean it stayed there. When troops are pushed back or withdraw, the ISPR does not tell the world about it.
Meanwhile, an incredible 840,000 refugees from Buner and Dir alone are now registered with the refugee agencies. This doesn't count the Swat refugees, nor does it count people who have arrived on the doorstep of relatives - and are still very much refugees - as opposed to going to a camp.
Pointless to note US is screaming from the housetops about the deaths of Sri Lankan civilians who are now compressed with the remnants of the LTTE in an area about that of Central Park, making civil casualties inevitable. US wants UN to stop a $1.9-billion aid package unless Sri Lanka assures the safety of the civilians, which basically means abandoning the offensive at a point it has reached its very last stage. To use a British expression, this is not bloody likely to happen. And as usual, US has nothing to say about the apparently non-stop air and artillery bombardment of the three Pakistani districts at the heart of the fighting. So once again a message goes to the world: where our interests are involved, civilian deaths are inevitable if regrettable. Where it someone else's interests, we can achieve cheap points with the HR community. And also, of course, US has said bombing attacks in Afghanistan will not cease.

Major Amin's analysis

Major Amin has changed his previously very pessimistic assessment of the Pakistan army and state's will and ability to fight the Taliban. He believes the Pakistanis are serious this time because they are hugely rattled by the arrival of the Taliban 100-km from Islamabad. As long as the barbarians remained to the west of the Indus, it was okay because Pakistan has never controlling that territory closely, any more than the British did or Indian emperors did. Indeed, the only reason the Pakistanis have imposed their waxing and waning presence in the NWFP is because of US pressure.
He also says the Army rank and file is angered by the beheading of a captured army captain and three soldiers. We are unsure about this because the Taliban has routinely executing both soldiers and paramilitary over the past years and all that did was to hasten the Army's desire to get out.
Most important, he sees the Army encircling all of Dir, Buner, and Swat Districts, and then pushing inward from all sides to eliminate the Taliban. He says the Army has already established blocking positions to the east, in the area of the Tarbela Dam and in Shangla.
We asked Major Amin if this is what he, as a professional soldier, would do or is the Pakistan Army really executing such a maneuver - in the rapid-fire exchanges the good major favors sometimes nuance gets lost.
If this is the Pakistan plan, we must immediately ask where are the troops to come from. Encirclement of three districts in the mountain terrain where there are uncounted defiles, valleys, and minor passes, to say nothing of thick forests, is very difficult.
In 2006 the Indian army conducted a rare large-scale operation against an infiltration force that decided to stay together instead of split up. Approximately 10,000 troops were needed to surround and eliminate less than 300 men. Unusually for the Indian Army, it was able to use artillery because the infiltrators were located in a remote area without civilians. We again emphasize the Indian Army has decades of large scale CI experience. Large scale means 40,000, 60,000, 200,000 troops engaged in the campaign. Before it moved to Kashmir in the late 1980s, a single Indian division, the 8th Mountain, alone had more battalion-years of CI than the entire US Army for the entire Vietnam War 1965-1972 (the division sometimes reached a strength of 40 battalions depending on the operational situation).
Not only can we not see how the Pakistan army can seal such a large perimeter without calling on its Kashmir troops, the problem is that the bulk of the Taliban in an exposed position has likely already exfiltrated the danger areas along with the refugees. Pakistan is not checking anyone. Sri Lanka, in its latest offensive which since 2008 has involved six-plus divisions covering two jungle districts and which checks every refugee, says 3000 insurgents may have nonetheless slipped through. In Pakistan, you have jungle AND mountains, about as bad an environment for CI as you can get.
So again: we hope very much that the Pakistan does as Major Amin believes it is, or should do. The west as well as South Asia will be the catastrophic losers if any part of plains Pakistan falls to the Taliban. Someone said the other day that the Taliban represent the most serious long-term threat to US security that the new administration must face. We say the same is true for the new Indian government. No one in their right mind wants Pakistan to fail. But the previous record is abysmal. Unless Pakistan is willing to commit to a 10-20 year campaign to clear ALL areas west of the Indus of anti-state actors, and probably expand its army by at least 50%, there is no chance of success.
Pakistan does not have 10-20 years. The expected US offensives in Afghanistan will push the Taliban into Baluchistan, which already wants to break free of Islamabad. The Taliban and other Islamist groups are securely entrenched in Kashmir and South Punjab, and have begun the process of nibbling away the North Punjab. As for Sindh, only a very stupid person would try and make definite statements about what happens there, 1, 5, 10 years down the road. Can Pakistan fight all over its country given the power elite is hated? We doubt it.

May 14, 2009

Pakistan Update

Our trusty correspondent Major AH Amin has a new, and more optimistic take on the situation. He feels the Pakistan Army has finally gotten serious and we may expect results soon. Due to time pressure, we have to defer to tomorrow the discussion we had with him and his explanation of Pakistan Army strategy. We apologize to readers, but you will have to wait one more day to learn about his new evaluation.

Movement of Northern Light Infantry into battle zone Mr. Bill Roggio of www.longwarjournaljournal.org alerted us to the movement of NLI battalions into the battle zone. We discussed the matter of these being predominantly Shia troops. Presumably Pakistan is more confident about these men fighting the Taliban, because the insurgents are Sunni. Editor opined that if that was the Pakistani intent, introducing sectarianism into the already explosive ethnic divide could create a disaster. The NWFP people may be upset with the Taliban, but already Pakistan suffers from a Shia-Sunni rift (the Shias are in a distinct minority) and even those who don't support the Taliban will jump into the fray against these troops.
NLI, which last we knew had 17 battalions, were originally paramilitary but due to their valorous performance in the 1999 War - where their political and military leadership cynically left them to die after the covert invasion of Indian-held territory failed - were made into a regular regiment.
Mandeep Singh Bajwa told us a few weeks ago that the NLI is also to be "Punjabized", i.e., Northern Areas are to enlist fewer men in these high mountain battalions and a substantial percentage are to be Punjabis. Presumably this process is far from complete, but the Punjabis, of course, like most Pakistanis, are Sunni.
For the rest, there is no news from the front. The ISPR has monopolized the story because there are no journalists in the area, and it has been all one heroic victory after another. Indeed, ISPR says Buner is almost pacified, and the Taliban in Swat are merging into the floods of refugees and running away. The thieves and petty criminals enlisted in the Taliban are deserting in droves.
Somewhere yesterday or the day before ISPR got around to admitting that no significant ground contact has been achieved by the Pakistan forces, its all firepower. But the ground offensive is coming, says ISPR, and Taliban will soon be pushed out of Swat.
People, if ISPR is telling the truth, nobody is happier than Editor, because the Taliban pose the gravest danger to his land of birth, India, and his adopted country, America. But if you asked the Editor what is the probability ISPR is telling the truth, he's have to say "based on past performance, very low". ISPR is legendary in the journalism world for looking you manfully in the eye, and telling lies so big there is stunned silence.
When Pakistan maintained the equivalent of 20 brigades in the NWFP - till the Bombay crisis 2008, the Pakistan Army was getting badly beaten in each and every campaign. Now the Pakistan Army appears to have ten brigades with perhaps six more on their way. But the battle area is much wider this time because Shangla, Mardan, Buner, and Swabi Districts are involved. Will sixteen brigades suffice where 20 did not, for a smaller area?
Even the six additional brigades is not entirely clearcut. Right after it was suggested more troops were needed, President Zardari at once said there were no more troops to send. Then The Nation reported six additional brigades were being sent, but there hasnt been confirmation so far. Its possible Pakistan means to say troops equal to six brigades, because like India, Pakistan has plenty of extra battalions. perhaps the NLI battalions are being counted in the "equivalent of". We simply don't know at this time.
Meanwhile, everyone has to ask the question, "OK, so you clear Swat by some miracle. Are you going to go into the FATA, which is the real heart of Taliban country?" Pakistan seems very clearly to have said "No way Jose etc." But if you don't clear the entire NWFP of the Taliban, they will simply come back.
Moreover, now people are getting very worried that there are so many extremists groups running around South Punjab, that that part of Pakistan may be the next target for the Taliban.

May 13, 2009

Yes, we do have other news today.

Pakistan Army Says Takes Taliban Stronghold in Peochar, Malakand District. The area has so far been impenetrable to ground forces, says Al Jazzera after an Army briefing, so troops were landed by helicopter and have the insurgents on the run.
We're a bit skeptical, pardon our French.
If the area has been impenetrable so far, this implies the Army has tried many times and failed. But as far as we know, this is the first attack on Peochar during this campaign. Odd.
If this place is impenetrable overland, is the Pakistan Army going to pull out its troops or leave them there till days/weeks/months pass and the village is made accessible overland? Seems a dangerous thing to do. US did it repeatedly in Vietnam, but then US had about 1500 fighters to support isolated positions, plus those lovely fat B-52s.
If the troops are to be pulled out, this a raid; the Pakistanis will declare victory and send their troops back home. The Taliban will return. Back to zero.
So far at no point has the Pakistan Army put the Taliban on the run, its air assaults have been surrounded and bogged down. This is supposed to be a major Taliban base, indeed, THE base for Swat. We're finding it hard to believe the Taliban just ran.
Of course, anything is possible. For example, its possible Mrs. Rikhye will suddenly understand she has been treating Editor badly for 32 years - and still continues out of habit even though we are not in touch - and sends abject apologies. Its possible she will, in mathematical terms. Of course, its also possible due to quantum tunneling Editor will suddenly disappear from his desk and instantly replace Mr. Hugh Hefner in his Playboy Mansion, aka Houri Heaven, but its not likely. Thus with the Taliban.
Another thing that bothers us is repeatedly the Pakistan press refers to "parachuted commandos", as supposedly done also in this case. Is the Pakistan Army parachuting troops from helicopters into wild terrain? The point of the helicopters is you don't parachute, you hover and people rappel to the ground.
(Which puts Editor in mind of his friend Fox, a year senior to him in college. Fox was in the Army ROTC, in which Editor did one semester just to learn a few things - and another semester in Navy ROTC, just to be fair. This gentlemen could do things like strip and reassemble M-60s in the dark in under 60 seconds or something unbelievable. He was an inch taller than Editor, who was 5' 6", and weighed as much, Editor weighed 123-lbs then and 193-lbs now, plus he's an inch shorter. Like others of his ilk, Fox was very wiry with incredible endurance. Anyone could beat him in strength, but when it came to endurance, he was first. Anyway, he invited Editor to come for summer training at the Army reservation outside Boston. Editor had to apply for special permission as he was a non-citizen, and in fact was in ROTC by special permission from DOD thanks to his father, who was a diplomat. So while waiting for permission, Editor made the mistake of asking what was Fox's role in the summer training thing. "My job is to kick through the aircraft door the boys making their first jump who refuse to jump because they're terrified. There they are, blocking the door, dry heaving and frozen, the jump light going, with the whole stick held up. I simply give one hard kick to their butt, that breaks their death-grip on the sides of the door and down they go." They say he who fights and runs away lives to fight another day, but you can get killed running away just as quickly as running forward. Editor quietly withdrew his application for summer training and told Fox sadly "They didn't approve." Fox, of course, was heading for Vietnam after graduation, and gasping and panting and frothing at the mouth with excitement. Couldn't wait to cut a commie's throat with his Bowie knife, actually several commies' throats. Editor hopes he made it back okay. Must check. Will let readers know. Editor didn't graduate, and didn't go to Vietnam, but went overseas anyway and the next thing he knew, 23 years of his life had passed. Another story for another time.)

Other News

US replaces its top commander in Afghanistan From our perspective, this is all Pentagon politics and we have less interest in that in than in the life of a fruit fly. Sorry, we lied. The lives of fruit flies are endlessly fascinating compared to Pentagon politics.
What initially appeared to be as many as 140 civilian deaths in airstrikes called by Afghan troops in trouble on the ground, causing a huge uproar, may turn into another story. It seems the Taliban have been using white phosphorous mortar rounds they have obtained from all over the place, including old Soviet ordnance and new rounds from Iran and Pakistan. US has documented six attacks with WP against its and NATO troops. Though the matter is under investigation, it is possible 100 civilians were killed by Taliban fire, including WP, during the battle.
A suicide team of 10 insurgents seized the provisional governor's office and provincial HQ at Khost. After a several hour battle, US and Afghan forces regained control, but there are other attacks in Khost reported.
Israel Odd as it may seem, all is quiet on that front. It appears both sides are very tired, and everyone is feeling their way now that both Israel and Washington have new governments. No one is quite sure how coalitions will play out.
But US sources say Syria has again started to infiltrate terrorists into Iraq. Situation is not helped by the Iraqi budget crunch due to oil price fall. Oil is up to $60, BTW, as the US economy seems to be hitting bottom and several indicators are showing a recovery may be under way. So Iraq has cut back petrol for its border forces by 50%, and these poor sods have fuel for only 15 days a month.
Iraq Klasse Klowne Al-Malaki has outmaneuvered everyone, including Al-Sadr and Washington, and is firmly ensconced in power. His position is so strong he is talking of taking on corruption, which is so pervasive - and even more pervasive in Saddam's time - that we're amazed anyone is even thinking of acting. He's got arrest warrants out for ten senior government officials on corruption charges. The whole Arab world must be agape because you do not, just do not, ever touch corruption. Al-Malaki the Crusader. Who knew. And its probably all tied to the impending US withdrawal, so that he doesn't have to anymore go "Yas, Massa" and "No, Massa" to Sam our Man.
This secretly tickles us because we've always said Iraq will manage just fine when the US leaves. It wont necessarily be in a way that pleases the US, and we still think there's a lot of blood waiting to be spilled, and Kurdistan is waiting for the US to leave before imploding etc. etc. But as we keep saying: US cannot define its strategic objectives as managing every square kilometer of real estate in the universe for all time. US wanted Iraq to become a democracy, it has - and more so than a lot of US allies in the region, such as Saudi and Egypt. Though it did everything wrong, US eventually did get it right - to recall Churchill on the US - "The Americans can always be relied on to do the right thing - after they've done everything wrong" or words to that effect.
Tis a great victory for you America. Now quit while you're ahead.

May 12, 2009

If the matter were not so serious, we'd be making the maximum fun of the Pakistan Government that we could within the admittedly elastic bounds of what we consider decorum. If this situation is not sorted out, its not just South Asia will be up the creek without a paddle, the US will be up the creek without a paddle or even a boat. The US will be swimming without a lifejacket up the Honeygo River at the same time as upstream dams have failed one after another. This offensive is not just a joke, its a very costly farce. Washington needs to call a halt to it, call for a timeout, and rethink every aspect of its Pakistan policy. More ad hocism will just not do and will instead lead to even more colossal failure. STOP. THINK. ACT. Not the other way around, people.

Item 1

Pakistan ISPR says army control 5-kilometers around Daggar, Buner...

...according to Geo TV News (Pakistan). Nice job, fellas. Two weeks into this offensive, you are still surrounded in Daggar. On your side you have the Special Service Group, jet fighters, attack helicopters, and medium artillery. On its side the enemy has got a ragtag bunch of fighters with little formal training, and as its heaviest weapons it has 12.7mm machineguns and a few mortars.
Since Daggar is the district HQ for Buner, we assume the few roads to other districts go through Daggar for the most part. This means what the local press, Bill Roggio of Lonfg War Journal, and ourselves have been saying all these days: the Taliban control Buner. Lets not varnish reality, lets accept it, so we can deal with it.

Item 2

Pakistan says may send two more divisions to NWFP...

...according to The Nation (http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Politics/12-May-2009/Govt-may-send-2-more-Army-divisions-to-Swat) because the additional troops are needed to protect against infiltration. specifically:
"Well-placed sources revealed TheNation on Monday that plans were afoot to mobilise two more Army divisions mainly for the purpose of reinforcement to effectively combat the armed militants who were using the guerrilla warfare tactics. Sources further said that the move would also help reinforce the troops already deployed and engaged against the militants in Swat and other parts of Malakand.
They were of the view that one purpose of the move could be to contain the militants militarily in such a manner to make them unable to move to other adjoining areas, and to preempt efforts of Tehrik-e-Taleban Pakistan to reinforce militants in Swat and Malakand."
Gee Golly Galoshes. They Taliban are such dastards, the Pakistan Army is shocked, shocked to learn they are fighting a guerilla war.
Now let's analyze the statement. We know the operation (Rah-e-Haq 4) is a sham put to impress Washington. Just a couple of days ago Government was claiming victory in Buner and Dir.
Why would two divisions have to reinforce a sham operation?
Because laddies and lassies, the four brigades and several Frontier Corps wings already deployed are surrounded on all sides and stuck. As Bill Roggio and ourselves have been saying, the Taliban still control ALL of the three districts. Pakistan Army has stuck its head in a noose to get money out of Washington, and the noose is tightening.
Our interpretation is neither biased nor wrong. Pakistan has bitten off more than it can chew, else those two divisions would have deployed from the start, even if the operation is a sham, just to protect the L of C.
This operation is in big trouble.

Item 3

The Nation quotes a US poll to say 45% Pakistanis support operation

http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Politics/12-May-2009/45pc-back-military-operation
Does this ring any alarm bells, people? Pakistan is in the direst straits, and 55% of the people STILL do not support the operation? What does this tell you, Washington?

Item 4

Read Long War Journal

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2009/05/pakistani_claims_of.php
After you've finished barfing, you can consider the salient points. US intel is telling LWJ the Government figure of 700 Taliban killed as "fantastic" and even the Pakistan Army's figure of 300 is "wildly exaggerated".
Read about the Pakistani use of firepower.
And please pay attention to Bill Roggio's point, same as we made yesterday: the war is spreading, and its the Taliban are spreading it, not the Government. We'd mentioned the reactivation of Taliban attacks in South Waziristan and Mohmand Districts, we'd talked about the fighting in Shangla (which now appears to us less an effort of the Pakistan Army to secure L of C to prepare for a bigger assault on Swat than a response to Taliban attacks on Pakistan Army convoys. The Army itself said that only 40 Taliban had entered Shangla, and then claimed to have killed upto 150 at a "training camp".
But if this is not bad enough, Mr. Roggio says Taliban attacks have also spread to Mardan.
So, people, here you have it a nutshell: a FUBAR and a SNAFU beyond all belief. Pakistan Army stages a show op to clear three districts (Buner, Dir, Swat), including one the Taliban took just three weeks ago (Buner). Taliban retaliates by resuming attacks in two districts previously covered by accords that have been quiet - Mohmand and South Waziristan. Taliban expands operations into two districts previously free of Taliban, Shangla and Mardan.
By the way, did we mention reports that Taliban are infiltrating Swabi District? We think we did cover that when the Buner operation began. Keep an eye on Swabi.

Item 5

US Government, aside from prayer and/or intake of more Prozac, and/or singing of more "La La La, I can't hear you!" what is your plan for Pakistan?

Hypocrisy Run Amok

Editor is not one of these bleeding hearts that believes that CI operations can be conducted with zero risk to civilians. But when a CI operation is proactive rather than reactive, plans to minimize civilian casualties must be made. The Pakistan Government is not doing anything to save civilians in Swat.
Just as happened in Lower Dir and Buner, the Pakistan Army/Air Force are blasting away with firepower, hammering insurgent "hideouts", when everyone and her grandmother know the Taliban are occupying villages and towns. They are not hiding out in the mountains because they have already reached Phase III Insurgency, where you actually control population centers and territory. If you have 100 Taliban in a small town and 10,000 civilians, the odds are greater than 1:100 that for every Taliban you kill, you are killing 100 civilians.
Why greater than 1:100? Because the Taliban, at least, can dig trenches, build fortifications, camouflage positions and so on. The civilians are sitting helpless in their homes or are out in the open.
The Pakistan Army has adopted a shoot on sight policy, after giving locals no notice, or short notice, or intermittent notice, to evacuate. The Army is doing not one piddling thing to help evacuations or see civilians reach shelter. In fact, it is hampering evacuations because civilians just do not know when artillery will resume its shelling or gunships resume their attacks even during a supposedly safe transit period. And if you cannot get out in time - for example, if you have no vehicle, or you are out of petrol, or if a public bus or hired truck is not available, you are out of luck. You stay in your home and get blasted, or you come out and get shot.
But this editorial is not about the Pakistan Army The editorial's title is "Hypocrisy run amok". Editor is not blaming the Pakistan Army one bit. It is what it is. The Army is inside Bandit Country, anyone can be a hostile. If the army is on edge and shooting up any vehicle it sees on the road, we are not going to assign blame, because in truth, the troops are scared and confused - and understandably so. There is no hypocrisy on the part of the Pakistan Army. And certainly we do not blame it when to justify its refusal to engage in direct combat with the insurgents it says stuff like "we are proceeding carefully to minimize civilian casualties", when it reality it is doing its best to avoid contact.
Nor are we going to blame the Pakistan Army for using firepower. Given the unreliability of the Frontier Corps and regular troops, who are understandably conflicted by the entire business - not to mention their families are vulnerable to Taliban retaliation - the use of firepower is understandable.
And in any case, where did the Pakistanis learn this tactic? Why, from their American masters, of course.
No. The hypocrisy is on the part of the west. In a short period of time, 1-million Pakistanis have become refugees in their own country (actual and expected displaced person in the new offensive, all may not be in camps). The west, and particularly the United States, has zero to say about this. When the Pakistanis told Washington they were going on the "offensive" in Buner, Lower Dir, and Swat, did any official in the administration, Pentagon, or State say to the Pakistanis: "Hold your horses, you have to set up refugee camps first and evacuate people. Then you start operations." Why should the US have known that a flood of refugees was inevitable? Because the Pakistan Government's previous efforts to fight the Taliban had already created a half-million refugees. These figures understate the reality because hundreds of thousands more are sheltering with relatives. So technically they are not refugees. But we ask readers to consider: you have your own extended family of 30 to look after, and then 30 more relatives descend on you, for years with no end in sight. Those 30 have lost everything. How are both parts of your family to manage?
The Pakistanis are acting at America's behest. Does not America have some responsibility to the civilians? everyone was all "OMG!" when civilians were caught in the Russian offensive against Georgia. Bad Russia. Evil Russia. Horrible Russia. We've already brought up the case of Sri Lanka, which the west has repeatedly hammered on the question of refugees. People are even working on cutting aid to Sri Lanka. And yet the US Congress is rushing to cram more money down Pakistan's gullet.
To begin with Pakistanis are probably more anti-American than is the case for any other country. Does Washington think its role in creating the new wave of refugees and the civilian casualties is passing unnoticed on Pakistan?

0230 GMT 11, 2009

NWFP News

From al Jazzera, Geo News Pakistan, The Nation, Dawn, and Frontier Post

Fighting has spread to Mohmand District on the Afghanistan border, with insurgents attacking four Frontier Corps positions in the Ambar area. We assume this is aimed to disperse Pakistan Army resources; if so, clashes will likely soon occur in areas of the NWFP where the Taliban are in charge but leave the Pakistan security forces alone. In Mohmand, the Pakistan Army says it killed 25 "militants" with the loss of one soldier; the Taliban say 20 security personnel forces were killed, plus 2 tanks and nine vehicles destroyed, with the loss of one fighter.
Taliban say they also captured six personnel, who will be executed unless Pakistan trades them for insurgent prisoners.
In the same district, local residences say Pakistan forces blew up "a large number" of houses after accusing the locals of sheltering Taliban, and arrested several tribesmen..
Fighting has also spread to South Waziristan, which like Mohmand had been ceded by the government to the insurgents, though government forces continue to occupy forts and posts in agreement with the insurgents.
In Buner, it appears that when Pakistan forces attempted to advance north from Daggar to Pir Baba, in the direction of southern Swat District, Taliban forces beat back the army. On Saturday/Sunday, Pakistan Army dropped SSG commandos on hilltops at Maidan, which is between Daggar and Pir Baba. Taliban responded by asking villagers to leave and on Sunday were preparing to attack SSG positions. We assume Pakistan is trying to seize the road between Daggar and Mingora to provide logistical support to its force in that area of Swat. We believe the road from Swabi District to Daggar is not in Pakistan forces control.
Fighting has occured in Shangla District, which borders Buner to the northeast and Swat to the west. Again we assume this has to do with the road through Shangla District to Swat which the Taliban are attempting to interdict, or have control of and which the Pakistan Army is trying to clear. Pakistan claims 150-200 insurgents were killed
Fighting continues in Lower Dir despite the army saying a week ago the battle was over.
In Mingora, the district HQ of Swat, the Taliban have the Pakistan army surrounded from all sides. Inside the town itself the army is said to hold just one of the higher buildings, which is exposed to Taliban fire from two different Taliban positions.
Without counting possible new refugees from Shangla and Mohmand Districts, a half million people have fled and are fleeing Swat, Buner, and Lower Dir. Meantime, the Pakistan Army is making it as difficult as possible for refugees to evacuate. It cut three hours off a 12-hour lifting of the curfew to allow residents to leave. The fate of those caught on the roads by the reduction is not known, but the Pakistan Army has been shooting people and vehicles on sight outside curfew hours and in some cases within. The justification was that Taliban movements had been spotted. And the Army is stopping civilian vehicles from entering the Mingora area, forcing people with private vehicles to walk distances of 40-kilometers and up on foot to reach safety (Try doing that with your sick elderly relatives, women, and children, and you will get some idea of what the refugees are experiencing.)
Pakistan says it has 15,000 troops in Swat, Buner, and Lower Dir Districts. We assume 4,000 are Frontier Corps paramilitary, who have a dismal record of standing up to the Taliban.

Washington Needs Waterboarding On Pakistan

You torture to get information. But what do you do when Washington refuses to listen to information on Pakistan? Our suggestion is that the good decision-makers of Washington be waterboarded until they acknowledge the realities of Pakistan and the Taliban. Enemies of the US were waterboarded for America's security. So isn't it equally important for America's security that American officials accept what's happening in Pakistan even if extreme measures are required?
We are not talking about our opinion versus Washington's opinion. Everyone has a right to an opinion. We are talking about facts.
Fact 1. In the last two weeks, the Pakistanis have not done one darn thing that has hurt the Taliban. For all the sound and the fury, the Taliban not only still control most of Swat, Lower Dir, and Buner Districts, they are actually attacking the Pakistan forces all over these three districts and have reopened hostilities in two more. It isn't the Pakistan Army that's on the offensive, its the Taliban.
How do we know this? Simply by reading the local press, little though it may be saying, and from our sources. Look, people, take just one example, Mingora in Swat. We mentioned last week the Taliban had already attacked Pakistan Army gun areas in Mingora as also two bases including a disused airfield. Does this sound like an enemy in retreat? Pakistan Army keeps hinting it is about to clear out Swat. But in Mingora, the Taliban have not been pushed out any place they occupied. Rather, they are busy getting ready for the Pakistan army - should it attack. The Pakistan Army talks about cutting Taliban supply and reinforcement routes. Oh brother. The Taliban are moving freely all over the three districts. How do you cut off insurgent movements anyway, with a pathetic four brigades, the force Pakistan has/is deployed/deploying to the three districts? Pakistan says the Taliban number 4-5,000 in swat alone. If true, then doesn't Pakistan need 50,000 troops as a minimum? The Indians, who have more CI experience than all the west put together, found in the Kashmir mountains they needed 20-1 to stop infiltration. How can 15,000 Pakistani troops control the three districts when most of the territory is in insurgent hands?
Fact 2. Pakistan is refusing to shift more troops from the India border because, it says, India may attack if too many troops are withdrawn. So the US is going to look on passively while this happens? Of course not! US will ask India not to try anything, and the Indians will oblige. Indeed, sad as it for the Editor to admit, India has already agreed not to attack at this time even though Pakistan is busy infiltrating insurgents into Kashmir! But then, Editor has never been under illusions as to his leaders. They are such wimps an octogenarian quadruple-amputee can whip them in between sips of his coffee.
Plus, can Pakistan answer this? It withdrew 40,000 troops from the Indian border in 2008, until the Bombay attack took place. Why cannot it at least send that many back? Our information is it has moved four brigades from the east to the west, or perhaps 15,000 troops. No one expects Pakistan to withdraw troops from Kashmir. But it has 13 infantry divisions outside Kashmir. It is NOT short of troops to use. It just does not want to fight the Taliban, and how many times does this have to be said?
Fact 3. Pakistan just in the last two days has said something everyone but Washington is aware of. It has said it is not going to try and recover areas outside Swat. So even if by some miracle it clears Swat, the insurgents will have plenty of time to rebuild.
This entire business is not going anywhere. You can feel for the man who is betrayed by his girlfriend once. You can still feel for him when he is betrayed by his next girlfriend. But when the girlfriend is clearly saying she will NOT be faithful, can we still go on blaming the girlfriend? Obviously not.
For this reason we suggest that Washington officials be tied down, and waterboarded with facts until they see sense. It's likely some officials will remain obdurate and still refuse to acknowledge facts. They may still say "kill us, but we wont budge". Okay, if some die, that's probably to the greater good. You don't want morons running your country, do you?

0230 GMT May 10, 2009

Discussion with Orbat.com contributor Major A.H. Amin (Pakistan Army, Retired) based in Kabul

For an update on the NWFP fighting, please visit http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2009/05/pakistani_government_1.php

What's happening in Swat, Buner, and Lower Dir?
The conflict has assumed an ethnic affair. Punjabi against Pashtun. Punjabi troops are hesitant in attacking while Pashtun troops are also internally divided. In the last six months there were many desertions in soldiers in units in Swat etc and many officers had submitted resignations
Now army has started an action but as you see in guerrilla war its all psychological. The insurgents can just withdraw and disappear and wait. There is definitely some support from Afghanistan from US side for the insurgents. The USA is having a plan for denuclearization .
It is our opinion that the Pakistan Army is refusing to close with the insurgents and is instead using indiscriminate firepower. What fighting has happened is being done by the Frontier Corps, which the insurgents have repeatedly defeated. Local reports say the Taliban are moving freely in these districts. Are we correct in our opinion? If so, why is Pakistan Army not doing its job? Is there any hope or are we witnessing just another show operation which will end in a couple of weeks and it will be back to business as usual?
The FC is not fighting at all while army is using artillery and air because soldiers don't have the stomach to assault. The fighting has made the soldiers question perks and privileges of officers. The operation is to restore the army's lost image but the area is militarized and one operation will not solve the issue. Even the Punjabi troops are hesitant from firing as they see the militants as soldiers of Allah.
Our information is that the Americans have given the green light to the Army to take over again. Do you think the Army will do so, or perhaps decline as it prefers to hide behind the civilian government in this big mess?
Army will take over if forced or may try to bring in Nawaz. I don't think that Kiani will be able to change much even if he takes over. He lacks the fire of Musharraf although a shameless opportunist that Musharraf was.
US is very worried its new offensive in Southern Afghanistan will only push insurgents into Balochistan.
Balochistan remains the vulnerable area but I am surprised that USA or your side (India) is doing nothing.

Other News

Chad Government says it has decisively defeated rebels near the eastern border and that they will require 2-3 years to reconstitute. Government says it killed over 300 rebels and captured 120. BBC reporter says she saw only about 50 dead.
Sri Lanka Government says it has constricted the rebel zone to about 4 square-kilometers. Refugee officials say 50,000 civilians are still trapped, but we cannot see how that many civilians can be in such a small zone.
Space Station Crew To Double To Six when the Soyuz TMA-15 mission arrives May 29th. The station will then have 2 Russians, an American, and astronauts from Japan, Belgium, and Canada. Previous US shuttle missions have expanded power available and habitat space for the expansion.
Parenthetically, NASA's 2010 budget is $18-billion. By contrast, Pentagon will get $130-billion extra for the Afghan and Iraq wars on top of the regular defense budget.
Georgia While we were focusing on Pakistan, protests against Georgia's president erupted and are continuing; the Army's tank battalion mutinied, but was suppressed; and the Russians went ballistic about a NATO exercise in Georgia which involved 400 personnel inside a school studying peacekeeping. Russians were invited, but refused to accept.
Russia About 4-5 of the Russian Army's new brigades have been formed, mainly from former divisions, and are engaged in training. The Army plans about 20 brigades as the nucleus of its new ground force for the 21st Century.

0230 GMT May 9, 2009

Seven short of a six-pack: Washington and Pakistan

Editor coined this term to indicate not just a complete lack of rational thought, but a prevalence of irrational thought.
Here is Washington's thinking on Pakistan. (a) The government will fail in its offensive against the Taliban. (b) The Pakistan army will have to take over before results can be expected.
First, we are pleased that Washington has now reached the stage it should have reached in 2006: the Pakistan government will fail in its offensive against the Taliban.
Second, Hypocrisy, Thy Name Is Uncle Sham. All over the world the US beats people over the head because their governments are not democratic or insufficiently democratic. Now a democratic government in Pakistan is being seen as too weak, so the US indicates it will not be unhappy of the military takes over.
In this respect, India is far, far more clearheaded than the Americans. The Indians have always said: "We have to do business with whoever is in power because its not our place to interfere." True, the Indians did interfere in East Bengal in 1971, but that's because Pakistan is an enemy state, and if an opportunity arises to hurt your enemy, you take it. More illustrative of India's position is Nepal 2008-09: a Maoist government has taken over; India has its own very serious Maoist problem; but aside from a few lethargic moves behind the scenes, India left Nepal, its neighbor, alone to decide what government it wanted.
In 2003, America attacked Iraq because (a) Iraq had WMD - well so do a lot of people, we don't see America attacking Israel, Pakistan, China, India, Pakistan, DPRK and so on; and in any case Iraq didn't have WMD; and (b) the poor Iraqis were oppressed by Saddam, they needed freedom.
So the Pakistanis finally got a measure of freedom, and to its credit, the US helped a great deal. But now that doesn't suit America, so a military dictatorship is fine.
So if a military dictatorship does take over, what is America's position in the world? Lets just say it will be in mud so deep that we'll emerge on the other side of the world for tea parties with the Ozzie Kangas. The goodwill that President Obama has earned for the US will go out with the next trash collection. The Russians, the Chinese, and the Hugo Chavez's and Kim's of the world will laugh at America from the rooftops. The Euros, who are so constipated with their moral superiority, will just go completely ballistic with joy because they will get to bash the US, just when a US president has been rapidly removing most reasons. US columnists will say: "all these people are being hypocritical because they do real-politik all the time, so who are they to criticize us?"
Son, they won't be criticizing your real-politik. They'll be criticizing your hypocrisy because you never miss a chance to beat others - including Les Euros, for doing real-politik and espousing godless atheism, child molestation, kissing squirrels, and other unnatural acts.
Further, since you want the Pakistan democratic government to excuse itself and leave, what message are you sending about Afghanistan?
Third, whatever may be the international consequences of the US actually publicly encouraging, the fall out is minor compared to encouraging a military coup.
You see, as we've explained a hundred times before, the Army is in charge of Pakistan's security policy, not the civilian government. Its not the civilian government is not fighting the Taliban, its the Army not fighting the Taliban because it (a) does not want to, and (b) cannot even if it wanted to. How can the Army destroy the Taliban in Pakistan and then demand the Taliban fight the Americans in Afghanistan? Though its incorrect to speak of the Pakistan Taliban, because there are at least seven groups, each with their own leadership and agenda, many of these very same people - the "foreigners" - are fighting in Afghanistan and in Pakistan. So are many of the Pakistanis. You can get as picky as you like, but this is not a class on ethnography. The whole lunatic bunch cooperates as it need to, and does it own thing when it needs to. You cannot any more nurture the Taliban to fight in Afghanistan and interdict them in Pakistan.
Still further, from what we hear, the Taliban is getting out of the Pakistan Army's control just as it started doing after the 1996 victory. The tail may soon be wagging the doll.
Not only is Washington telling Pakistan: "Yo, Mr. Fox, we want you to guard the chicken coop by being inside," its telling Saudi to involve itself more because the Saudis have influence with the Taliban and presumably they will listen to the Saudis.
Please excuse us while we barf. Its extremist Saudis are funding the Taliban, AQ, and a bunch of other crazies. So now you're looking to the Saudis, when the Saudis have made a lifetime career of paying off extremists to keep their fight outside the Arabian Peninsula? What kind of logic is this?

0230 GMT May 8, 2009

Pakistan NWFP For today's update, please read http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2009/05/pakistan_army_to_eli.php
We add the following: locals from Lower Dir and Buner Districts say that despite the Government's claims the Taliban are still moving around on the roads and in the towns.
Pakistan may had added one brigade from the Peshawar-based XI Corps to the 17th Division and one corps reserve brigade of IV Corps (Lahore) to its orbat in Swat.
Local sources say 12 of 15 captured "soldiers" - we don't know if they are Frontier Corps or army - have been executed in Lower Dir and their bodies thrown in a bazaar. We've noted before the Pakistan Army is not taking prisoners - one reason is it is avoiding face-to-face contact with the Taliban and is relying on firepower instead, but we doubt very much the Pakistan Army is keeping Taliban captives and then executing them at random intervals to intimidate the Taliban. That the Taliban have reached this level of barbarity is only to be expected, and frankly, we give little chance that the non-NWFP recruits of Pakistan's forces will see their homes again if the Pakistan Government does not bargain. The Taliban have at least 70 security forces captive, and are likely to make sudden raids on isolated posts to capture more.
Yesterday the Washington Post carried an accurate report based on refugee testimony of Taliban atrocities. But if anyone takes this to mean that the people of Pakistan will rise up to fight the Taliban, they are whistling in the face of a storm. The Taliban did not take Afghanistan or NWFP districts by being lovable and huggy-poo. They did it by extreme brutalization of civilians so that the civilians were too terrified to resist.
American analysts go on pathetically proclaiming that the Taliban are overwhelmingly opposed in Pakistan without the slightest understanding of how armed movements take over countries. It does not matter if 95% of Pakistanis oppose the Taliban. The next time a Pakistan leader or spokesperson says that, you have our permission to whip them down with a limp noodle. A man with a family to protect falls silent when these merciless predators appear in his neighborhood. He has to make a calculation that is not difficult to make: do I go out and get killed resisting the Taliban, leaving my family at their mercy, or do I keep quiet? Put yourself in the shows of an average Pakistani and then decide what you would do.
Though the Government is claiming several Taliban leaders killed, at least one of the people killed (see LWJ article) was not an insurgent even if his father is an insurgent leader.
For every Taliban atrocity, locals see with their own eyes Pakistan forces atrocities. In Mingora, Swat District, for example, the Taliban have prevented civilians for leaving because they are digging trenches, mining approaches, and felling trees for road blocks. We don't know if this means they are using human shields. If you say they are, then you have to same the Pakistan Army is doing the same, because it has blasted civilian vehicles trying to flee from Mingora, and several dozen civilians have died.
We can understand the Pakistan Army's viewpoint: it has no way of knowing if the approaching vehicle is a suicide rig or contains genuine civilians. But there are ways of handling this. If you simply shoot on sight - and BTW, many of the "suicide attacks" that were earlier "foiled" were civilians shot on sight - then you are recruiting for the Taliban. Its quite simple: people have such low expectation of the Taliban that any act of kindness on its part is magnified. But people expect their army will protect them, and when their army/air force is bombing/shooting anything that moves, people don't say: "What choice does the Army have?" They want revenge - and please to remember that the entire NWFP works on the revenge culture.
Every time we hear the government talk of Taliban casualties, it's invariably in firepower attacks. How on earth is the government getting its figures when it does not dismount and go into contested areas on foot, we certainly don't know. The locals are saying many insurgents have indeed been killed, but they say many are just civilians caught in the cross fire or in the firepower attacks.

Letter to the Editor from Ted Thomas Re. Major Amin's Thesis

The good Major’s assertions are totally and completely without merit and demonstratively so.
For this to be true would mean that US Foreign policy would need to be… looking out for our own national interests. While this is true for most nation states… the US generally is not one of them. One need only look to the handling of Iraq and oil… as you yourself have point out on several occasions, to see proof of that.
Next this would require the US policy makers and planners to take a very far reaching look at things… again something that others do and do well… China for one, but not the norm for the US.
It would then mean that the US has switched… fully and completely… to the side if India, and will support India in a war to take back Kashmir… and who knows how much more of what is now Pakistan… to the point of removing the nation-state or Pakistan and make everything India doesn’t want and adding it into a ‘greater Afghanistan’ and has done so in a complete and total Machiavellian way. Again a major departure for US foreign policy.
That there is or will be any ‘international effort’ to denuclearize Pakistan… we can’t get international effort toward a kegger… let alone one to force weapons from someone. I suggest the good Major review Iraq 1991 – 2001 for examples of this… also Afghanistan 2001 – right up to yesterday.
And… has done all of that over the course of 8 years, 2 Presidents, 2 nasty Presidential campaigns, a change in the control of Congress, AND has not seen this first leaked to the press and then used for domestic political gain… something that almost NEVER happened over the last 8 years.
And all of that is to leave out the great tradition of Islam that there is always some great grand conspiracy keeping the faithful down and if they would only unite!

0230 GMT May 7, 2009

NWFP It's near impossible to make sense of the news reports regarding the fighting in Pakistan's NWFP.
All we can say is that fighting continues in Buner District, and the Taliban continue to run around unchecked in Lower Dir District.
In Swat District, the Pakistan Government says it has ousted Taliban from the emerald mines they recently took over. We sure would like to know how you can clear a mining complex overnight, unless the mines are open cast.
Other reports say the Taliban continues in control of Mingora, Swat's biggest town. Taliban reinforcements are said to be pouring in from other districts, but the Army is said to considerably outnumber the insurgents, even with the reinforcements.

UK Guardian report on Mingora Taliban fighters attacked two major army bases near Mingora – one on the town golf course, where artillery guns are stationed, and a second at a deserted airfield. The army struck back with a helicopter gunship assault on an emerald mine on the edge of the city that has provided the Taliban with illegal revenues in recent months and served as a militant camp. The military also launched mortar assaults.

Residents cowered inside their homes, terrified of getting caught in the cross-fire. According to reports 80 children were trapped in the basement of an orphanage with an army position on the roof.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/may/06/pakistan-swat-taliban-zardari-obama

If correct, the news about the Pakistan Army taking position in an orphanage without getting the children out is extremely upsetting. Pakistan Army needs to know that when people talk about war crimes, this is a classic example. Pakistan Army has every right to defend itself even if civilians are caught in the crossfire. But this is not about defense or offense, it's about using children as human shields and then blaming the Taliban when the latter attack. Hopefully the Taliban will not because hopefully they are aware of the situation, but Taliban does not exactly rank Number 1 when it comes to concern for civilians.

Interestingly, given the dispersed nature of the fighting - there is no front line - we were wondering why the Taliban had not attempted attacks on Pakistan Artillery gun areas. The Taliban can move quietly through the countryside but the Pakistanis cannot, creating an ideal situation for infiltration attacks. Our question to ourselves was answered by the article above.

In Mingora, militants control all major government buildings, including the electricity grid station and the office of the Malakand commissioner, a senior civil servant with authority over one-third of the province.

Other details from Pakistan media IED's are said to be inflicting casualties on government forces, in five different areas nine soldiers are reported to have died in such explosions on Wednesday alone.

If this is happening, we believe the Pakistan offensive will falter and then stop, because one tool the army actually does not have - as opposed to its whining about not having anything - is Mine Protected Vehicles. The Pakistan Army is not deployed in numbers anywhere near sufficient to fight the insurgents on foot, so all army movement is along roads, and lack of MPVs can be a serious problem. But lets see how thing develop: the Pakistan press is not exactly covering itself with glory in the matter of accurate and informative reporting.

We'd suggest that, frustrating though it may be, readers wait till the operations are over and then we'll be able to make sense of what happened.

Major A.H. Amin's Thesis

Major Amin (Pakistan Army retired) is a frequent contributor to Orbat.com. He tells us that (direct quotes)
1. At no stage from 2001 till to date did the US or NATO forces mount any major military operation inside Afghanistan against Taliban. Actually the (unfavorable) force ratios of US and NATO forces does not allow this in any case.
2. ll major US Army and USAID and NATO construction contracts were sub contracted at third and fourth tiers to contractors who were Taliban after sunset and contractors after sun rise. All this happened with US military officials in full knowledge.
3. While major Taliban infiltration from Pakistan to Afghanistan takes place in the 1400 km tract in between Gomal River and Chaghai Hills the US Government at no stage pressurized the Pakistani illegitimate military regime of Musharraf to interdict this influx ! (We believe Major amin is saying the major part of infiltration takes place from Baluchistan, not the NWFP.)
4. All the US pressure on Pakistan was to take military action in Waziristan from where hardly 10 % of influx into Afghanistan was taking place! Later the US pressure also expanded to include Bajaur and Mohmand who have a very short, less than 300 km, border with Pakistan.
5. Thus while major Taliban attacks were taking place on US and NATO forces in Helmand, Kandahar and Zabul who have no border with Waziristan , all along the US Government was pressurizing the Pakistani Government to attack the Taliban in Waziristan which accounts for less than 5 % damage to any US or NATO forces in Afghanistan in terms of length of border contagious with provinces where maximum US and NATO casualties took place.
6. Till 2007 I could travel from Kabul on one end to Herat on the far end via Kandahar in a private car without any weapon safely. But not after 2007. Suddenly everything changed and USA and NATO forces took no action from 2007 till to date to secure this area. (We've heard other make the same criticism.)
7. Despite the fact that no major US casualties took place in Khost and Paktika provinces adjacent to Wazisristan and Kunar and Nigrahar Provinces adjacent to Khyber Agency, Bajaur and Mohmand and Dir/Swat the USA spent a fortune on bases and infrastructure building in these provinces.C onstruction profits were made by the very tribes fighting the Pakistan Army in Waziristan, Khyber, Bajaur and Mohmand.
8. No container taking supplies to NATO at the height of Taliban operations in Afghanistan was attacked in any area of Pakistan in between 2001 and 2008 but in 2008 mysterious attacks started.
His conclusions are (and we are not commenting on them):
1. The USA did not come to Afghanistan to defeat the Taliban.
2. The USA by design destabilized Waziristan ,Khyber ,Bajaur and Mohmand to create a war like situation to justify international action to denuclearize Pakistan.
3. Pakistan needs to drastically revise its foreign policy making a clean break with USA and NATO and making peace with India, alliance with Russia and China and Iran while preserving its nuclear deterrent.
Lastly its worthwhile to quote a US statesman. To be an enemy of USA is one thing but to be its friend is deadly!
The USA is part of Pakistan's problems. Friendship with USA is not the solution. But who will bell the cat. Who will make the resolute decision! No peace in sight till Pakistan's statesmen and generals stop sleeping with the devil.
Readers are welcome to comment on the validity or otherwise of Major Amin's eight assertions. His opinions will, of course, not be shared by many of our readers, but then we should not be surprised. Pakistanis not on the American payroll have a completely different perspective on American motives and strategy in Afghanistan/Pakistan.

0230 GMT May 6, 2009

Who Needs This Buffoon? Not America

This will come as news to the residents of Buner and Swat The Pakistan president has told the Americans that both districts have been cleared of Taliban.
So will the president explain why terrified resident residents of Mingora, the largest town in Swat, are fleeing in such large numbers that local sources expect 500,000 refugees - in addition to those created in Buner and Lower Dir.
Would he kindly explain why local reports say the Taliban are openly patrolling Swat, creating roadblocks and running government officials out of the district? How come the Taliban are said to have taken over important buildings in Mingora, establishing posts on top of buildings, and laying down explosives? And how come the Pakistan Army is said to be jockeying for position in Mingora and also establishing posts and working to clear explosives?
People, the battle for Mingora hasn't even begun and the Pakistan president says its over. Does America need a man who doesn't even know what's going on his own country?
Now to Buner. Reports say the Taliban are patrolling all major roads to Daggar and two other main towns. The Pakistan Army is in control of Daggar - unless it has withdrawn like lightning after proclaiming Daggar. If the reports are correct, the Pakistan Army is once again surrounded in Daggar - though of course Pakistan has air supremacy and helicopters can come in and out, though not without risk because the Taliban have heavy machine guns.
The Pakistan Army is moving to the two other main towns and skirmishes are reported.
To us it looks like the battle for Buner District has just begun.
So now is the US Government going to hand over the first tranche of aid on the La-La Land remarks of the Pakistan president? If USG does, then more fools they and full points to the Pakistanis for once against having Baffled the Americans with BS.
By the way, a reader writes to say the aid proposed for Pakistan is $15-billion and not $7.5-billion as we thought. If any reader has details, please send them on for our edification.
One of the weirdest explanations we have heard from the Pakistan side for why the Army is not fighting is that Pakistan is broke. May we whisper a little secret in the ears of our readers? Pakistan, like darn nearly everyone else, is having trouble with its GDP etc. But the past decade or so has shown pretty robust growth. Further, America pays for all anti-jihadi operations in cash against invoices presented. Yes, the paymasters have tightened up their controls because of the ongoing misappropriation of money by the Pakistan Army - odd how this has still not become an issue in Washington. But money is not an issue.
May we whisper another secret? CI, South Asia style, does not cost much money. This is not the Americans fighting in Iraq or Afghanistan, this is an army operating on home field. How much POL and ammunition is an infantry battalion going to use? Most of CI is tromping up hill and down hill. You don't have armored divisions racing across the desert. At a very rough guess - we will refine this flash estimate - it shouldn't cost Pakistan more than about $100-million a month on top of what it already pays for peacetime O and M for 30-40 battalions on continuous operations. We don't have the latest figures, but seeing as Pakistan even now has 20 battalions or less deployed in Buner, Dir, and Swat, we are fairly certain the extra money the US is giving Pakistan is adequate. Remember, Pakistan operations are highly intermittent, and last for a few days at a time.
"We must guard against India" say the Pakistanis. Say what, again? When is the last time India attacked Pakistan? It was 38 years ago, after Pakistan exploded in civil war and India took advantage. In 1947-48, 1965, and 1999 Pakistan attacked India. This time the Indians and Americans are in bed together; even if India was treacherous enough to think of attacking while Pakistan forces are diverted to the west, are the Indians going to act in the face of adverse American and world opinion?
And since when are the Indians gasping and panting to get at the Pakistanis? All we see is Wimping Out Big Time.
Further, will Pakistan please explain if it fears an Indian attack, why has it put Indian Kashmir under attack once again? Shouldn't it be doing everything to avoid provoking India.
Pakistan does NOT want to fight the Taliban Every month Pakistan comes up with a new excuse not to fight the Taliban. America, when are you going to see what everyone else sees, including your CENTCOM brass, that Pakistan does not want to fight the Taliban.
Why does America go on flogging that spavined donkey, hoping that further beatings will miraculously transform that donkey into a mighty war horse?
America does not President Zardari But neither does another president of his ilk. First, it is not America's blessed business who the people of Pakistan choose as their president. Second, the entire Pakistani power elite, regardless of local politics, is united in a single objective: to maintain its privileges. Does anyone seriously think that if Nawaz Sharif becomes President the Pakistan Army will suddenly start functioning?
Fprget Pakistan, folks, do what you have to do without counting on a country that doesn't want you around. But please keep sending those checks - the Pakistani rulers may hate America, but they love American money.
PS: This will make you laugh so much you will get a hernia We are actually, really, truly hearing it said that the Pakistan Army is awaiting firm leadership from the civilians and that it does not want to take the lead when Pakistan has just returned to democracy.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHA!
So what civil leader's orders was the Chief of Army Staff following the other day when he went to see President Zardari and told him to back away on Zardari's war on Sharif?
How stupid do people think are the Americans?
Oops! Our bad! We should haven't have said that! Because already from every Pakistani leader, general, media person, diplomat, whatever, we hear the cry: How Stupid? Very, very, very stupid!

0230 GMT May 5, 2009

NWFP Summary

Buner District Pakistan forces have moved on to two other strategic towns in the district after capturing Daggar. Fighting is heavy - but as we've said many time, the media hypes any clash as "heavy", and the ISPR, the Pakistan military's PR division, wants to give the US the impression that Pakistan is going all out against the insurgents.
Lower District District The action here was by the insurgents; we reported on on it yesterday, no further news.
Shangla District Insurgents raided a security forces outpost killing one soldier.
Swat District The focus has shifted to this district, where the Pakistan Army has never won a campaign against the Taliban. We hope we are wrong, but as far as we are concerned this is deja vu all over again.
The Pakistan Army is moving troops north from Peshawar headed for Swat. Insurgents beheaded two soldiers they were holding as prisoners, presumably to "encourage" the Pakistan Army not to fight.
To us it appears the Pakistan Army is taking no prisoners in the few actual ground fights in which it has engaged; so the Taliban have nothing to lose by executing their prisoners and throwing the bodies along a road, their favorite show tactic. They warn people not to remove the bodies until a specified time, so everyone in the area gets to take a good look at what will happen to them if they run afoul of the Taliban. And in any case, the Taliban are of a different breed then regular soldiers, because they have "Born to Die" written all over them, whereas any sensible regular soldier will be less willing to die - especially when he has no quarrel with the Taliban and is being pushed on by his officers - the younger of whom also have no quarrel with the Taliban.
Meanwhile, the Taliban (a) ambushed an army convoy, killing one officer; and (b) have taken 50 or so security forces prisoner at another place.
The Pakistan media suggests an operation may begin today.
Meantime back in Toon Town aka Washington DC the Pakistani president has arrived for the summit with Mr. Obama and the Afghan president, and senators are falling all over themselves to make sure the Pakistanis get more money. The talk is of setting up monitoring mechanisms that will link aid yo performance against the insurgents.
Have the good senators ever thought to wonder just WHY Pakistan needs to be bribed to fight the insurgents? Might it be because the Pakistanis don't see them as a threat the way the US does? And do the good senators realize they are bribing the very same people whom the Taliban and the rest of Pakistan want to eliminate because they're the corrupt power elite? Do the good senators realize that much of the military aid money given since September 2001 is unaccounted for?
Are the good senators not just a little put on their guard when the Pakistan Ambassador to Washington attacks the US Government, saying if it wants results it should give Pakistan money at the same levels as it has given Iraq and Afghanistan? So what is this gentleman saying except "you want us to fight, pay us", clearly implying no money/no fighting? So does this look like the Pakistanis are worried about the Taliban or that they are extorting money?
So you can criticize the Pakistanis for their extortion, but at least they are acting rationally. It is US senators who think that giving the Pakistanis more money will make a difference. And why should the Pakistanis not extort money? They have made clear time and again they don't see why they should be fighting the Taliban. So on one level there's nothing wrong with them saying "Give us money to fight", except, of course, if the US hasn't learned in 8 years its being taken for a ride, then why blame the Pakistanis for taking the Americans for a ride?
And overall, does the US think its a good idea to give the power elite money to fight people who represent the common person? The Pakistanis already hate the Americans enough, do the Americans think the Pakistanis will start loving them more when the US pours even more money into the corrupt hands of the power elite?
The US began life as THE revolutionary power in the world. Somewhere along the line the US became THE reactionary power in the world. It does not appear the Americans have learned any lessons at all, and especially no lessons from Iran 1979. People who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it, and all that.
Good luck, Sam my Man.
Meantime, we have the giant genius writing in the Wall Street Journal who wants to give Pakistan $100-billion over 10 years to verifiably get rid of its N-arsenal. To preempt those who say Pakistan needs its arsenal to protect itself against India, this Giant Mind suggests the US extend its N-umbrella over Pakistan as it has over Israel, and give Pakistan arms like the F-35 and M-1 just as it gives Israel.
So then 30 countries who can develop N-weapons but haven't, stage test explosions and put out their hands. That's a mere $3-trillion, US can afford that, just issue more debt.
So then what happens when the Indians say - hey, WE'LL give up our arsenal, and $300-billion is a nice price, because we have a decent arsenal where the bombs actually work, as opposed to Pakistan that has 6 going on 10 bombs. To sweeten the deal, India promises to spend the money on buying conventional weapons from the US.
It then uses those weapons to destroy Pakistan. After all, the US nuclear umbrella cannot be used for a first strike, and against an ally at that, and since India is five times larger than Pakistan, it has no incentive whatsoever to use N-weapons. It will be a triumph of US policy when its own money and weapons are used to destroy Pakistan east of the Indus, leaving Pakistan west of the Indus to be a free zone for terrorists of every ilk.
Now, the Indians will not behave the way the Editor suggests, because the Indians are bigger idiots than the Americans. Instead the Indians will throw out their relationship with the US and throw in their lot with the Chinese. The Indians spend way less than 3% of their GDP on their military. They will simply increase their defense spending, and while the US is building M-1s and F-35s to give to Pakistan, India will roll over Pakistan and it wont have to worry about Pakistan's N-weapons - not that it worries in the first place, by the way. Why not, its too complicated to explain to people with Giant Minds like those flourishing at the Wall Street Journal.
What a bunch of total asses. No wonder America is up the economic sewage creek without a paddle. There is no better sign that the US is completely out of ideas on what do about Pakistan than the WSJ story.

0230 GMT May 4, 2009

Pakistan Government Says Daggar Secured and that Pakistan forces will move on two other Taliban strongholds.
There are suggestions government forces will also enter Shangla District and begin a new operation to take Swat District.
Taliban have become more active in Swat; yesterday they kidnapped and executed two government officials in retaliation for what they say are the deaths of two minor Taliban commanders. They are patrolling and blocking access to certain area using checkpoints. They blew up a 14-room boys school; attacked two police stations, and blew up a transformer feeding power to Mingora, the main town in Swat District, causing a loss of electricity to some areas.
Lower Dir District The official victory in Lower Dir notwithstanding, Taliban burned down the house of a senior police officer at the district HQ, and kidnapped the son of another senior police official and the son's bodyguard and servant This is how the Taliban make their war a personal affair, and why no one is eager to fight them.
Taliban attack police station in Shangla District Another police station was also attacked, we are unsure if it too is in Shangla District
Mandeep Bajwa writes to say Pakistan has moved 17 Division (I Corps) and an independent brigade of IV Corps to the Dir/Buner areas. One brigade is doing the fighting while two are being used to prevent infiltration, and the fourth is in reserve.
So far only SSG commandos have been identified.
While on the past record it is futile to take the Government at it's word, at this time we have no information that contradicts the Government's claims of victory at Daggar.
Taliban rejects Sharia Courts that the government set up yesterday. Taliban says that (a) it will not accept any deal while military operations are underway; (b) the government cannot designate existing secular law judges to act as religious judges; and (c) that they will not surrender their weapons.
In other words, the peace deal is deader than a dodo even as the Government keeps saying the peace deal is working.
Meanwhile, Taliban warn against any operations in Swat District.

Events at Daggar

Reader Yashpal Agrawal was able to find Daggar and Ambela on the 1:250,000 map. Click this link. Bill Roggio, once he saw the section of the topo map suggests this is what happened:
The fight for Daggar (a) The Pakistanis landed heliborne commandos at Daggar (Look at the junction of lines P5 and 5, and move north a little bit) and took it immediately on D-Day. (b) To link with the commandos at Daggar, they sent artillery and tanks from south of Ambela (Look at the junction of lines P5 and 4) via the road; since the road passes through a valley, even though it twists and turns, its at a reasonable gradient and tank transporters can get through. (c) They found Ambela held against them and got held up at the pass. (d) The commandos at Daggar were surrounded by Taliban. (e) Pakistan used medium artillery, air strikes, and gunships to help the besieged troops. (f) They dropped more commandos on the mountains on either side of Ambela, on D+2 and became involved in heavy and prolonged fighting - we tentatively estimate this was a three day fight. (g) The Taliban sensibly left, even though they had heavy machine guns and medium mortars, because the Pakistanis not only outnumbered them several times, the Pakistanis had a huge firepower advantage. Taliban may have lost as many as 20 vehicles during the fighting, for them that is a lot. (h) On D+6 came the link up with the commandos at Daggar.
The Taliban had about 100 men at Ambela at perhaps that many at Daggar. We have no clue what the other 200 men in Buner were doing, but look, this action took place in the northwest of the district, presumably the rest of the Talibs are at other places in the district. Our best guess is they have lost 40-50 killed and as many wounded; Pakistan security forces casualties are half that, not bad at all for the attacker. Though very few troops other than the SSG actually fought, after the initial mistake of underestimating the Taliban at Daggar, the SSG seems to have done a reasonable job: nothing heroic, because they didn't see why they should take unnecessary casualties (it wasnt the civilians they were worried about, despite what the government says), but competent.
At this time the Pakistanis have some troops on both flanks of the Ambela-Daggar Road and more are guarding the Line of Communication, but they still feel vulnerable to infiltration and plan to leave ASAP.
Presumably they will leave Frontier Corps troops behind, which the Taliban will walk over.
But the show for Uncle Sam will have been put on - the Pakistan president is to visit Washington this week for a summit with Hamid Karzai and President Obama. The Pakistan president will flash his big smile at Congress which will immediately hand over $400-million with another $1.1-billion to come during the year. Many high fives etc.
Hopefully the Taliban will have the grace not to do anything until the summit is over. We think they will not, because Pakistan has four brigades in the area, and why take on the Pakistanis when they've clearly said they are leaving.

0230 GMT May 3, 2009

Pakistan says it controls road into Buner and that its forces have successfully reached besieged forces at Daggar. "According to an ISPR press release, the security forces conducted a successful operation on Ambela-Daggar axis and established a linkage with besieged troops in Daggar." http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/pakistan/provinces/14-daggar-mardan-road-secured-as-buner-offensive-continues-ispr-zj-08
Jolly good and all that, but when were we told that Pakistan forces at Daggar were besieged in the first place? Here is a report dated May 2 that as far as we know talks for the first time of SSG commandos dropped also at Daggar, not just at the Ambela Pass. The operation was conducted Wedneday but revealed only on Saturday.
From the reports we thought that the Frontier Corps had taken Daggar and SSG Commandos were dropped around the pass and on the heights overlooking Daggar. We thought a two-prong attack was underway to clear the road that leads to the Buner Valley.
Now, Daggar is in northwest Buner where the district abuts Mardan District to its west. We were unable to get anything resembling a decent map. We looked at the Mardan map 1:250,000 US Army series 1955 http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/ams/india/ni-43-05.jpg Mardan is to west of Buner and somewhere in that map is that district. But we could not identify Daggar because the computer can handle only a small section of the map at one time (20" screen) and you really need the map spread out before you to find places. We don't have our Pakistan District Gazetteers so we cant get a longitude/latitude fix on Daggar. Editor's eyesight is not what it was, so he cannot translate from the map at http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/txu-oclc-300481561-afghan_paki_admin_2008.jpg which gives a good view of all the districts we've been talking of and use that to get a fix on the first map. We tried to crop and paste the districts of concern and couldn't do that either - no facility with Microsoft Picture Editor. So we can't show you anything. But take a look at the badly drawn Wiki map at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buner_District and if your eyes are good, you can then go to the second map and from there to the first. If you can get a picture extract please do send it on so we can post it for readers.
The point of this story is that when we first heard the Frontier Corps had reached Daggar, we were a bit baffled as to how they had reached there because it's deep in Bandit Country.
But now the mystery is resolved. Wherever the Frontier Corps may be, it was Pakistan SSG commandos who took Daggar via heli-drop, couldn't move because of the Taliban, so more commandos were dropped on the Ambela Pass - we cant figure out where it is in relation to Daggar, but the pass is one of the choke points along the Buner - Mardan road. We assume Pakistan forces are coming from Mardan District but frankly we don't know.
So now the whole thing is clear - sort of. If the Pakistan SSG got into trouble at Daggar, someone had better start thinking of the implications, as yesterday we'd noted these are Pakistan's very best troops.
And once more we have confirmation that Pakistan military news releases are not worth the paper they're written on. What more are we not being told? And what will be told tomorrow that hints at some SNAFU somewhere else?
But here's more ecstatic news. First, Pakistan government has repeatedly said it expects the Buner operation to last a week. This indicates plain as day that just as in Lower Dir District Pakistan will declare victory and pull out.
Second, the NWFP administration has announced the immediate setting up of Sharia courts throughout Malakand District and the Government is saying now the Taliban have no reason to fight, they have what they wanted. See http://www.nation.com.pk/ for May 3, 2009.
Further evidence if you needed it that this entire operation has been a Sham For Sam the Man, and the Pakistanis are so keen to get out that they are not even making a pretence of really clearing out Buner and Lower Dir.
Does it occur to anyone in Washington that may be they just CANNOT do what Washington because of the reasons we've gone over again and again? And if they cannot clear out even these two districts, how are they going to roll back the Taliban to the west or stop them from advancing east?
We fully expect a few more sham operations in coming weeks. Meanwhile, the Taliban has thoughtfully attacked a Frontier Corps post in Mohand District, which abuts Afghanistan. Government of Pakistan told us it was in control of Mohand - of course Long War Journal's been telling us Pakistan Government is NOT. Pakistan Government has had its fun, now wait for the Taliban response.
This whole things makes us sick.
Meanwhile, if anyone cares, this reports says that 70,000 families have fled one sub-area of Buner alone. We suspect the report has it wrong and it means people, not families, and that it is not that high, but it shows what is happening to the civilians. Is US Government/EU withholding aid as they are for Sri Lanka because the government is refusing to ceasefire and civilians are being killed. The stench of hypocrisy rising over the Potomac makes us gag.http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Politics/03-May-2009/Buner-refugees-flood-Mardan-and-Swabi

Mr. J. Bolton

If Mr. Bolton was a cow, he'd have to be euthanized because his foot is permanently stuck in his mouth. He must be dashed good at yoga, and doubly so because he can still spew forth tracts despite the foot in the mouth. Either that or he has a very small foot and a very large mouth. We are sorry to be so rude to someone who has honest beliefs and is hardworking and honest, but none of that should give him a free pass when he soeaks to the public.
Mr. Bolton's latest idea is that the US should capture Pakistan's N-weapons.
First let us be clear: we support this idea but not because Mr. Bolton says it. The story/option has been making the rounds for eight years. In fact, Mr. Bill Roggio of Long War Journal sent us a private email the other day, giving his thoughts on the matter. If you want to get his thoughts, you'd better email him, because as we said, what he told us was strictly for private consumption.
We're not beating up mr Bolton because of this N-weapons thing. Read some of his statement from the Wall Street Journal http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124121967978578985.html
"Moreover, we must strive to keep Indo-Pakistani relations stable, if not friendly, and pressure Islamabad to put nuclear-weapons proliferator and father of Pakistan's nuclear program A.Q. Khan back under house arrest. At the same time, we should contemplate whether and how to extract as many nuclear weapons as possible from Pakistan, thus somewhat mitigating the consequences of regime collapse."
Okay, does he think the US owns India and Pakistan? What stable relations, darn it, you stupid person? Pakistan is attacking India and you want stable relations? Do you even know what is going on in the world? We are absolutely fed up with the drivel that seems to flow in a perpetual flood from official Washington's mouth when it comes to India and Pakistan - especially Pakistan.
Put AQ Khan back under house arrest? And give the people of Pakistan one more excuse to go against the government? The man's a hero to his people, the government couldn't touch him if they wanted - and they don't want. What is this nonsense that we was a rogue? Many of his schemes were originated by him, but they were fully, completely, 100% authorized by the Pakistan Government. So what if he made some money off these projects? Everyone else was, why do we expect him to be the only honest government official in Pakistan?
And does Mr. Bolton even know just what Dr. Khan's house arrest conditions before his release were? Here's a hint, Mr. Bolton. Letter to the Pakistan Government from Editor: "Please, please, please pretty pretty please put me under house arrest on the same terms as you did for Dr. Khan".
Now, not only is Washington openly talking of replacing President Zardari, now a respectable former official who is part and parcel of the power elite wants Pakistan's N-weapons snatched if there's signs of trouble?
Dumkoffs and Feeble Brainers. The Taliban has been telling the people of Pakistan Washington wants only to disarm Pakistan, the people already believe it - because its true - and now you want to add fuel to the fire?
Yes we know the whole situation could collapse very quickly. But when Washington does not have a single good idea of what to do, should it be talking so openly about replacing Zardari and snatching the nukes?
If Editor was a Pakistan, he'd be laying siege to the US Embassy right this minute. Why is Washington going nuts and abusing the Pakistanis like this? What does Washington want - for the whole thing to blow up even faster than its going to blow up?
The truth of the matter is, Washington can do fresh-all about Pakistan and it is having a massive temper tantrum. This has nothing to do with Republicans or Democrats or Martians, this has got to do with Imperial Overreach. We've never bought the theory that America will go down because of overreach as happened with Rome etc. But ever since Mr. George Bush started off after 9/11, we've been wondering if we are wrong.
The first sign of real decline is when a country bullies and blusters because it cant do anything. So what is it US is doing with Pakistan except bully and bluster? US aid doesn't help the average Pakistani. What leverage do you have with Mr or Mrs Average. Zero. Zip. They hate you and now you've pushed them into a corner. Good luck, Washington, there's 175-million Pakistanis.
BTW, if its true the US "helped" Pakistan install Permissive Action Locks on Pakistan's N-warheads, why is anyone worried about loose nukes? And just how many of those nukes are real warheads anyway?

0230 GMT May 2, 2009

There's the news...

After defeating the Taliban in Dir District, the Pakistan Government is redeploying troops to Buner District.

Then there's the news...

www.longwarjournal.org reports that the Taliban stormed and overran the paramilitary forces HQ in the town of Dir in District Lower Dir. This town is not the district HQ, but is likely the largest town in both Lower and Upper Dir Districts.
The Taliban captured 10 of the 50 police at the station. Dawn of Karachi says as the captives were being led away, 400 tribesmen surrounded the 40-odd Taliban and ordered them to release the captives, which the Taliban did. Contradicting itself, Dawn says negotiations are underway between local elders and the Taliban for release of captives. (This kind of contradiction is quite common in Pakistan news stories.)
Meanwhile, the insurgents made off with 70 G3 semi-automatic rifles (this is the standard issue for the Pakistan Army and paramilitary forces) and 6000 rounds of ammunition.

So now lets put away our Super Hero 3-D spectacles...

...and dispassionately examine the situation.
First, the Pakistan Government made a pathetic show attempt to retake Lower Dir District, and couldn't pull out fast enough after just a couple of days of fighting. Does this look like a victory? It looks like the Pakistan security forces ran for their lives before the Taliban got a chance to organize and counterattack.
Second, the Dawn of Karachi says a security guard at the post fired "warning shots" as the Taliban were leaving. What this means is the paramilitary troops put up absolutely no resistance. They surrendered without a shot being fired.
To our readers this may seem like an ominous new development, but in truth, Long War Journal has been reporting for the better part of two years that neither the Pakistan paramilitary nor the regular army is putting up resistance. The paramilitary is surrendering without a fight; the Army pulls back at the first contact.
The way 63rd Frontier Force "withdrew" during the winter when a forward patrol was ambushed and two soldiers killed has been documented on video. And frankly, even though Editor is Indian, the video made him quite sick. No one who knows the Pakistan Army can believe what is going on, except the people who today are most up to snuff on the Pakistan Army, and they say this running away is precisely what's going on.
Not to depress people further, but the Taliban is apparently using the Government offensive as an excuse to advance into parts of Lower and Upper Dir Districts that it had left alone.
So at least in Lower and Upper Dir, the US is faced with the pleasant result that the offensive it demanded has actually cost the Pakistan government territory. Talk about the Law of Unintended Consequences.
We have already detailed the Taliban's advance into several new districts while "withdrawing" from Buner District. Editor's fingers are sprained from all the Austin Powers' closed quotation marks he's having to make these days.

Now let's look at Buner...

First, we have from the Government's own mouth that its offensive is stalled.
Wait a minute, you say: where does the Pakistan Government say that? The Government has been saying it is advancing cautiously to minimize civilian casualties.
Yes, and that means the offensive is stalled. The Pakistan Government has never, in all these years of fighting the tribals given one hoot about civilian casualties. Where do people think the 600,000 internally displaced refugees and the anticipated additional 400,000 have and will come from?
Pakistan Government is using medium artillery, gunships, and fighter sorties in this offensive in both districts, as it always does. Who and what it is firing at, no one knows. What result is it having? Doesn't seem much.
Second, while Pakistan Army says its SSG commandos have taken the main pass and ridgeline that controls the road into the Buner Valley, local reports say this is not the case. Heavy fighting is still continuing.
Now look, people, the SSG are no wussies. The Indian Army has fought and defeated the SSG in the Siachin, but no one the Editor has ever met will ever say the SSG are anything but very tough.
So here you have Pakistan's very best troops and what for the subcontinent is unlimited firepower, and a free fire zone, why is the fighting for the pass and ridge going into its 4th day?
Story time. Editor had to leave all his notes in India when he left twenty years ago. In fact he left with one backpack containing two pillows, two changes of underwear, and two of his Teddy Bears. (No, he did NOT abandon any Bears in India. The family then had only two bears.) Oh yes, also toiletries and a small towel. So this is remembered for the first time from a long time ago.
Somewhere around 1986 or later, the Pakistan SSG planned an attack against Indian positions on the Siachin Galcier. This lovely resort spot is 7,000-meters high - and up. The Pakistanis had to come up mountain.
The Indians through signal intercept got ahold of the plan. The Indian Army staff rang up their Pakistani counterparts and said: "Look, we know what you're up to, please do not attack, you haven't a hope in heck, and you will die".
The SSG decided to go ahead anyway, and one can assume only that it was because of their pride, because the entire business was quite hopeless. Well, somewhere up to 100 SSG commandos were killed, but the point is they did not waver: they had to be shot down before they stopped.
It was magnificent, but it wasn't war.
Now, you may say: "But that was against India, here now the SSG has to fight its own people and so obviously it is pulling its punches."
Well, folks, and dear US Government, you cannot have it both ways. If they are pulling their punches - these are Pakistan's best of the best - then what hope the Pakistanis will defeat the Taliban?
Surely simply from the pride of being special forces these chaps should be going all out, no matter who they fight? Perhaps we are wrong, but when the SSG had to take the Red Mosque in Islamabad, they did so smartly, and the Red Mosque lot were Pakistani citizens as much as the NWFP insurgents. And if so, then the USG is in a world of major pain: the sole explanation is that the SSG is shot through with the same angst as the regular army - which means the regular army is in very bad shape. At which point analysts like Bill Roggio and Mandeep Bajwa will say "but we've been telling you that." True, but like the Americans, Editor has to be reminded time and again just how dire is the situation with the Pakistan security forces.
Now, Editor is hoping that the SSG will get it together and clear the darned pass and ridge and the bridges which are going to get blown by the insurgents. Editor hopes Pakistan will thrash the Taliban.
But you know what? Taliban will not hang around to get thrashed. If they're putting up resistance, its because the Pakistanis are fighting half-heartedly. If they start hurting, they will withdraw.
And then the Pakistan Government will declare another glorious victory and also withdraw.
Then the Taliban will come back.

Other helpful signs

Take One Coincident with the offensive, both Pakistan supporters in US Government and Pakistanis are pushing for another aid package that they say is needed to keep up the pressure on the Taliban.
Do tell. Do tell what's happened to the $10-billion or so the US is said to have spent in the last 8 years on Pakistan forces. Someone please tell us what victories that money has brought. Please tell us how in 2001, the NWFP had fallen to the Taliban and they were 100-km away from the capital, and how they had surrounded Peshawar and were in the process of infiltrating the capital and Lahore.
Do tell us how the Pakistanis, using American aid, fought back the Taliban, which is now defeated.
Oh - sorry about that. That's in an alternate universe all this happened. In this universe, Pakistan Government had control over the NWFP bar a few spots, and if you'd said the Taliban would soon be at the gates of Peshawar, Islamabad, and Lahore, you'd have been laughed out of town.
What the US really needs to do is to send an audit force to Pakistan and find out where that money is. (Hint: US Government does NOT want to audit the money. These auditors are strange freaks: they will find out and they will not be stopped from telling the world where that money went. And a lot of generals, intelligence people, and diplomats are going to be standing in front of investigators telling what they knew or what they should have known.)
Now, we happens the know the Indians know the overseas bank numbers of some of Pakistan's best where the money ahs been stashed. Do you mean to tell us US doesn't know? Heck, even we are not that stupid.
Take Two While Pakistan is falling apart, the Pakistan Army has still found time to inform the civil authority it needs 100,000 acres of additional land requisitioned in the Punjab. In land-scarce Punjab that is a whacking great amount of land, 400 square kilometers.
Lets be charitable and say the Pakistan Army is going to build a new cantonment in the Punjab. Last we knew, you built cantonments in the Punjab to house troops for the Indian front.
Next. lets be frank (this business of being frank is tiring the Editor). There is NO Army cantonment project in Pakistan's history since at least the 1960s that has not seen vast amounts of land given at throwaway prices to military officers. Go into the land records at Gwader Naval base, for example, and you will be amazed at how much land the military has taken for its officers as opposed to the land taken for the actual base.
This is what happens. In the national interest, the government seizes large swathes of land and a lot of that is NOT land owned by the big landlords, who basically control the civilian government and are very much in bed with the military. Nominal prices are paid for good quality land, small landlords and workers are impoverished, and the bigwigs get the land.
The military officers get choice plots for next to nothing.
This is called wealth redistribution. Wealth is taken from the poor and given to the rich.
Such is the Pakistan government version of the GWOT.
As for ordinary folks, who cares about them? Le them eat cake.

0230 GMT May 1, 2009

NWFP situation defined by lack of new clarity. The government says it has retaken Lower Dir District and the government's objectives have been achieved. BBC using local reports say the Taliban is very much in control and is openly patrolling. a few kilometers into Dir government authority is non-existent. The locals seem to be correct because refugees attempting to return after hearing the government's claims are being turned back by the Frontier Corps
In Buner, Government says it has retaken Daggar, the district HQ. It says it has control of an 8-km ridge that overlooks most of the district.
Lacking an intimate knowledge of the district, or even a decent 1:250,000 map, we are having difficulty visualizing how an 8-km ridge line can overlook a district of almost 1900-square km, even if most of the district lies in a wide valley. Presumably Pakistan can establish gun positions on the ridge but we don't know if the roads/bridges will permit carriage of anything more than 120mm mortars.
Nonetheless,Frontier Post, a local newspaper with an extremely torturous reporting style and a habit of presenting each story as one long disjointed paragraph, gives a different story. It says the Taliban have broken up into small groups to evade bombing, are controlling the hill tops, and are using heavy weapons against helicopters. Other reports say the Taliban have heavily mined bridges and choke points in Buner. if so our hypothetical question about gun positions is answered. Moreover, you don't want to establish artillery positions in bandit country where you are vulnerable to infiltration attacks.
Very frustrating: sometimes the Editor gets this unbearable urge to hop on a plane and see for himself, as he often did in his happily misspent younger days, but then reality intervenes. You cant in your mid-sixties wander about the way you did in your mid-twenties, nor do financially busted school teachers have the money or the leave for this kind of travel, nor will the Pakistanis welcome such a trip with loud cries of joy and open arms. Besides, the editor never goes anywhere with his four soft pillows and his four teddy bears, and frankly, his teddy bears will not appreciate having to leave their very comfy setup.
Karachi We haven't commented on the gang fighting in Karachi because violence there is an everyday event. The paramilitary Rangers have been given shoot on sight orders. This is the usual, very bloody way that violence in the subcontinent is put down.
We cannot expect westerners to understand, but the sheer numbers of people involved when riots erupt in South Asia requires the imposition of curfews, the banning of assemblies of more than five people - and shooting on sight if anyone violates these orders. Karachi has 16 million people, with tens of thousands or even more armed persons. Only the most ruthless suppression of violence works because riots spread like wildfire.
The toll so far in one day of violence is 34 killed, many injured, and an unknown number of vehicles and shops burnt down. This has nothing to do with the fundamentalists despite what you may have read. It is true that on the one hand you have refugee Pashtuns (fundamentalists) who have settled in the city in large numbers, and on the other you have former refugees from united India who opted for Pakistan (liberals). But just as in India, where most so-called sectarian riots are assumed to be because of religion, in Karachi it is rival gangs fighting it out.
India Air Force loses 1st Su-30 The Indian Air Force has an incredible record of fighter crashes for a number of reasons to do with the flying environment, bird hazards, poor manufacture, poor maintenance, and till recently lack of a proper operational conversion trainer - pilots used to transition directly from jet basic training to the MiG-21, which - to put it mildly - is a very unforgiving aircraft. Oh yes, we should also mention Indian fatalism as a contributing, but unquantifiable, cause.
So Editor was pleased to learn that after seven years of operational service, the IAF suffered its first Su-30 loss only yesterday. A Su-30 from the southwestern base of Pune made a long-range sorties to Rajasthan's Pokharan firing ranges, did its thing, and went down on its way back. One pilot ejected safely; the second's parachute did not open properly and he was killed.
Nonetheless, the IAF seems to have major strides in its flight safety. By the way, the Pakistan Air Force used to have the same cavalier approach to flying as the Indians - hardly surprising since till 1947 it was and the same air force. The US instructors that arrived in the 1950s apparently had several near heart attacks at the way the PAF functioned and their first priority was to instill a fly safe mentality.
Also by the way, does anyone remember the number of F-84s/F-86s USAF lost in training accidents in 1950-1954? Editor used to know the figure. Remember, those were the expansion years because of the Cold and Korean Wars, and you had pilots who had gotten used to high-performance piston-engined aircraft, which handle very differently from jets.
This was a huge problem for the Luftwaffe when it was reconstituted in ?1954? You had pilots grown up on propeller aircraft, to say nothing of a lost generation of pilots. The F-104 problem was different. Editor is having trouble remembering, but one big problem was the Germans kept their Starfighters in the open and German weather can be harsh. Also the flying conditions in Europe were usually difficult.
Better stop here, because the Editor is starting to remember how much he's forgotten, and that's depressing. People talk of the golden years, frankly, as far as the Editor is concerned, the Golden Years suck. Time for the 8 pills and various inhalers and nose drops that constitute the Editor's evening serving. In the morning its 10 pills, inhalers, and a minimum of two different topical creams. AND Mrs. R has dropped him from her excellent insurance so he has had to get his own inferior insurance through his employer.
Bah. Grumble, whine, moan, complain, grouch, clench jaws, grind teeth. So much for the Golden Years. All that glitters is not gold, but all that is gold is not much use when you are old and cold.

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