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Editor & Publisher

Ravi Rikhye  

 

We did not bring out CWA 2007 for lack of orders.

Concise World Armies 2008

Under preparation. $75 E-copy; $135 hard copy 800+ pages, airmail.

E-mail Ravi Rikhye to order.

List of Countries Now Available

[180 countries/territories; approx. 45 more to be added.]

1.07 American Samoa; 1.20 Jordan

 

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    Condensed World Armies  Condensed World Paramilitary Forces 2006

    Analysis

    WE BRING YOU THE WORLD ©

    Published on an ad hoc basis

     

     Declassified Gulf II Planning Documents

    Report on US Army readiness March 2007 [Thanks Joseph Stefula]

     

    Welcome to  America Goes To War. We focus on news about the war on terror and other important strategic matters.

     

    0230 GMT February 28, 2009

     

    • Bloody Bangladesh Even after the bodies of 60 officers seconded to the Bangladesh Rifles have been recovered, another sixty officers are still missing. The bodies are being found all over the place: in mass graves on the base, in the river, in wells, and in sewers.

    • It appears that BDR NCOs/ORs planned this massacre because many officers including the commanding officer, a major-general, seem to have been shot down without warning.

    • Relatives of the slain officers are asking how come thousands of BDR personnel left the base before the killings began, an indication that the business was pre-meditated, knowledge of the plans was widespread, and most personnel did not want any part of it.

    • This is a terrible incident. We don't doubt in the least that the NCOs/ORs have their serious grievances. But you don't just kill every officer you can find at the base on a pre-arranged plan. This smacks too much of the meticulously planned killing of East Bengali officers and men in 1971, carried out by the Pakistan Army. One reason so many died is the total surprise the killers were able to maintain.

    • And yes, occasionally you do have mutinies in India. With the exception of two Sikh Regiment battalions that mutinied following Operation Blue Star in 1984, when the Army moved against Sikh insurrectionists in the Golden Temple, in India the pattern has been mutiny by men who can no longer stand the injustices imposed by a dictatorial commanding officer. And of course in wartime you have incidents of "fragging", the murder of officers by their men who have simply had it with callous and mismanaged leaders, though the Indian Army never talks about such incidents. But the BDR mutiny massacre is unprecedented.

    • We are glad to hear the government says the killers will not be part of the amnesty.

    • Iraq Troop Level Correction We wrongly reported 30,000 US troops will remain in Iraq after the combat brigades are withdrawn. We were using a planning figure from the last administration. President Obama plans on a residual force of 50,000.

    0230 GMT February 27, 2009

     

    Bangladesh Rifles Mutiny

    Mandeep Singh Bajwa

     
    • The mutiny by troops of the para-military border guarding force the Bangladesh Rifles has spread to other stations including Jessore, Rajshahi and Chattagaon (Chittagong). Sparked off by long-standing and unresolved grievances the events have the potential to destabilize Bangladesh which currently has an elected civilian governmen t after a spell of military rule.
    • Grievances include inadequate pay and rations, accusations of officer corruption, friction with Army officers and “no peacekeeping missions”. .The Bangladesh Army are the largest contributor to UN peacekeeping missions worldwide. These are much sought after by Bangladeshi soldiers since they add significantly to their otherwise, by Western standards meager earnings. The BDR being a para-military force are excluded from such missions adding to their resentment. The Army's lording it over them and particularly the attitude of the Army officers seconded to the BDR exacerbates the problem.
    • There's also a big grievance over Operation Dal Bhaat, a seemingly illegal exercise in which huge amounts of food grains were stored within BDR compounds and sold at huge profits. These profits which were to be used for troops' welfare were allegedly cornered by Army officers who hold all the command positions within the force. The immediate provocation for the troops was the asking of accounts of this operation from the BDR Director General, an Army Maj Gen and his provocative response.
    • Any strong Army action against the BDR will further complicate the situation and heighten the tension. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed has sought to intervene personally and defuse the situation. However behind the scenes maneuvers by the right-wing Opposition and Islamists might further complicate matters.
    • India is viewing the tense situation with considerable alarm as it is the political turmoil in its Western neighbor, Pakistan in the wake of the Swat surrender and the Supreme Court judgment unseating the Sharif brothers and the subsequent dismissal of their party's government in Punjab.
     

    News

    • Bangladesh London Times reports that Army had to send 6 tanks and 10 APCs to the Bangladesh Rifles base before the paramilitary troops finally laid down their arms. But the mutiny has spread to 15 of the 64 districts (counties) in which the BDR is stationed.

    • Government says 11 Army personnel have been killed versus previous reports of 50 officers killed. Government says 30 officers were released.

    • BDR personnel get only $100/month as pay and three months rations, versus 12 months rations given to the Army. This is one factor leading to unhappiness in the BDR.

    • US To Withdraw Combat Troops from Iraq by 2010 The 14 brigades will come home, but 30,000 trainers and support troops will remain.

    • Government of Jammu and Kashmir To Withdraw Army's Special Powers and have the soldiers return to their barracks after 19 years. This is a major and welcome development showing the civil government is comfortable  dealing with the remnants of the insurgency.

    • From Richard M. Bennett Hanging as a punishment no longer exists in the UK - for any offence, treason or even assassinating the Queen....pity really.

     

    0230 GMT February 26, 2009

     

    • Bangladesh Rifles Mutiny Ends A one-day mutiny by NCOs and ORs of the Bangladesh Rifles, Pakistan's paramilitary birder guard, ended with an agreed amnesty for all personnel and a government promise to remedy grievances.

    • The issue was long simmering resentment concerning pay and the BDR's officers, who come from the regular army and are accused, by the mutineers, of ill-treating the enlisted men.

    • The mutiny began after a major meeting of senor BDR commanders at Dacca. The Prime Minister attended. The NCOs and ORs asked their officers for permission to meet the Prime Minister. They were refused, and one soldier was slapped by the BDR commander.

    • The rebels sealed off the camp from outside, and took 30 battalion commanders and senior officers hostage. For reasons still unknown, they kept up near continuous fire on civil areas surrounding their base, killing at least three civilians.

    • Inside the HQ, they shot dead a battalion commander and a sector commander (latter equivalent to a brigade). Many more officers are believed to have been killed, including the commander of the BDR.

    • A delegation of 14 mutineers was taken under flag of truce to see the Prime Minister. She persuaded them to end the rebellion in exchange for amnesty.

    • www.bangladeshtoday.com says 4th and 17th Battalions East Pakistan Regiment, serving under HQ 46th Brigade (the brigade stationed in Dacca) and troops from the Air Defense brigade responded to the emergency. The Rapid Action Force, also a paramilitary unit for internal security, kept the BDR pinned inside their compound until the regular army turned up.

    • BBC says Government sources say 50 officers have been killed, which basically implies a massacre. We are unsure how the Government will be able to justify amnesty in this case.

    • Swat The Taliban dismantled its roadblocks and took its armed fighters off the streets. It said it had no objection to girls attending school as long as they wore veils.

    • The fly in the ointment of all this peace, happiness, and goodwill, is that it seems the Taliban are forcing the government's hand by preemptively taking de-escalation measures. It remains to be seen what law the Islamic courts will use, though the Taliban have made clear they expect the Taliban version of Sharia - and if the courts don't impose it, the Taliban will.

    • The government is also not pleased about having to remove the Army. We guess this is because the government does not want to upset the Americans. But removal of the Army is a main requirement of the Taliban. If the Government does not comply with Taliban demands, at a time of their choosing these gentlemen will start fighting again.

    • So we will have to wait and see what happens here, though one school of thought says Sharia and army withdrawal are a done deal, all the Pakistan government is asking is for face-saving time so that it can pretend it hasn't been forced out at gunpoint.

    • Bill Roggio reports that the Pakistan Army has ceased fire in Baijur, reciprocating the Taliban ceasefire. He find this odd, as the army has been claiming it has defeated the Taliban and will clear the area by March. Army claims to have killed 1800 insurgents for the loss of 84 soldiers. Indian losses during Kashmir CI operations often ran higher than that of the rebels, and even in the last phases an exchange rate of 1 soldier to 3 insurgents was common. Here Pakistan Army claims a 1 to 25 kill rate.

    • Observers on the ground says most of the time the Army has no way of counting insurgent losses as they cannot enter battle areas. The usual tactic is to call in firepower the minute troops take fire, and estimates of insurgent casualties are simply made up.

    • Expected DPRK Satellite Launch Causing Jitters Though the matter is not so simple, if you can launch a satellite into orbit, your rocket can be used as an ICBM. and if DPRK has an ICBM, it can hit the US.

    • Now a DPRK satellite launch has been announced for an unspecified day next month, and the US/Japan in particular are quite upset. There is talk of shooting down the rocket if it appears in any way to threaten Japan; some argue it should be shot down regardless to show DPRK that it cannot develop ICBM range missiles with impunity.

    • But, say others, if the launcher is shot down, it will give DPRK an excuse to go on one of its famous pathological rages, and it might lob a missile at ROK.

    • We - fortunately - are no experts, but it seems to us if DPRK launches a missile at ROK for any reason, the next step is to put the renegade under total air and missile attack and squash this miserable cockroach before it leaves its hole. So we'd say: warn DPRK back channel that their rocket if launched will be shot down, and if it creates trouble, then its lights out for the North. We'd welcome this opportunity for a true operational test of US/Japanese ABM capabilities. But what do we know, we're from Iowa.

     

     

    0230 GMT February 25, 2009

     

    • Sri Lanka Army breaches fortifications of last town held by LTTE rebels. After this, some villages in the pocket into which the rebels have been squeezed will need clearing.

    • Rebels say they will ceasefire but not disarm. Colombo says if they don't disarm, there not be peace talks. The rebels do not seem to be in a good position to demand terms.

    • Mogadishu Fighting Islamist fighters attacked the presidential palace where the newly elected moderate Islamist president is in residence with mortar bombs, and also attacked a AU peacekeeper base. Earlier 15 Burundi peacekeepers were killed by Islamists.

    • Burundi says it is dispatching another infantry battalion to the Somali capital and will not be intimidated into quitting the peacekeeping force.

    • South Sudan The South Sudan Army and a Khartoum-backed militia are engaged in fighting. The SSA unit involved is actually part of a joint SSA-Khartoum brigade, one of several formed when in 2006 a ceasefire was declared between North and South. At that time the North agreed on a future referendum for southerners, who are Christians, to decide if they want to stay with the Arab north. Ironically, says Reuters, the joint brigade incorporates troops from the militia; it is unclear if they are staying out of the fighting or joining in it.

    • Taliban declare truce in Baijur for four days, and the Pakistan Government welcomes the development. BBC says Pakistan troops have scored successes in Baijur recently, but frankly, we'd rather wait till one of our sources confirms this. There have been just too many victories claimed by the government which have trurned out to be defeats.

    • Meanwhile, the Swat truce is holding, with the Taliban saying they are waiting for the government to set up Sharia courts, and demanding that the army be withdrawn from all civilian areas - which basically means it has to return to its bases.

    • British Muslims are fighting in Afghanistan says UK Independent. Signal intercepts are also picking up more and more Pakistanis from Punjab and Kashmir, as opposed to Pushtoons, the people who live on both sides of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.

    • We have to get more information before we comment on the arrival of more Punjab and Kashmir fighters in Afghanistan.

    • As may be expected, the Brits are seething about their own citizens fighting the British Army. We now look forward to when the first of these men are captured and the Brit Civil Liberty Brigade swings into massive action, demanding the captives be treated in a certain way and given proper civil trials in the UK. But as far as we understand Geneva, even guerillas have to clearly identify themselves as enemy combatants to get protection, and they cannot fighting from within civilians. We don't think many of the British gentlemen will meet these criteria.

    • Moreover - and please correct us if we're wrong, isn't treason one of the only two hanging offenses left under British law? And are battlefield combatants entitled to civil law?

    • The other hanging offence is setting fire to Her Majesty's dockyards.

     

     

     

    0230 GMT February 24, 2009

     

    • Pakistan Army ceases Swat operations ostensibly because the locals don't support the counter-insurgency.

    • We've heard many weird reasons over the last five decades for actions governments and their armed forces take, but this is a new one. Does Pakistan Army mean to tell us that each time the locals are against its operations it will simply up and quit? If so, then what is the purpose of the Pakistan Army? Face India while the country collapses to its rear? Jeez, someone give us a break.

    • In practical terms this may not mean much because the Army had already seriously cut back operations by the four brigades stationed in Swat. But this open concession to the Taliban means something the West and India had better understand: the Pakistan Army is not going to fight the Taliban.

    • Mandeep Singh Bajwa has been saying this for a long time, and Bill Roggio also understood the point some months ago. How much more evidence does the West and India want? Do we have to wait till the Taliban arrive at the gates of Islamabad and Kabul?

    • Rather than come up with half-baked schemes to get the Pakistan Army to fight, the west and India should be preparing contingency plans for the time - coming soon - when substantial fractions of the Pakistan Army join the Taliban.

    • At Orbat.com we are 100%, completely, totally, wholly fed up with the cheerful tone US and Pakistani officials take when they are talking about the situation. Isn't it time to face the truth, that the situation has been very bad for at least the last two years - five if you want to go back to the fall of Waziristan to the Taliban, and now the situation has become positively dismal. People, there has to be a limit to denial and self-deceit which has reached the stage an immense psychosis envelopes governments in the west, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India.

    • Why arent India and the US at least holding responsible the officials and generals who for the last five years have been spouting the most juvenile twaddle imaginable? Does either country think that everything was tickety-boo, dont-worry-be-happy till a few months ago and then things just fell apart? We know Pakistanis who have been trying to warn the US and India for the last 20 years that a cancer had set into the NWFP and was spreading. The Editor has been trying to warn the Indians for over ten years about the Taliban.

    • Consider this analogy. You can have cancer for years without knowing it, then of a sudden it erupts and you're dead before you have a chance to understand you're dead.

    • So it is with the Taliban. What we are now seeing  is not the start of a process, but of the mid-phase of a process. When the end comes, it will come so fast no one will know what hit them. Pakistan is at the stage that the doctors have realized it is infected with a deadly disease and have not yet come to terms with the reality that its too late for debate, or wussy solutions, or trial and error. something has to be done by the summer of 2009, something very drastic, or else its all over.

    • The New York Times has a glowing piece on the operations of a new 400-man Frontier Corps unit that American SF personnel have trained and which has begun operations, killing or capturing 60+ Taliban. Nice job, America.

    • Now you know what's going to happen next? The Taliban are going to ascertain the identity of the unit's personnel, and they're going to attack the villages those men come from. They're going to kill their women, their children, their cattle, and their dogs and their pet parrots. You can guess what will happen next.

    • And supposing that the Taliban attack a company of the new unit. What makes the US think that the Frontier Corps men will fare better than 63 Frontier Force fared against the Taliban, or troops from any of Pakistan army's regiments? Haven't we been through this before, in Iraq?

    • The US eventually scored a big success in Iraq for several reasons. The surge was one. But oil money was another, possibly even bigger factor. Iraqis of all stripes realized that they had more to gain by cooperating than by fighting each other.

    • The other thing that people don't realize about the Iraqis: they have never been ignorant savages determined to push the world back by a thousand years. Iraqis are a savvy, educated, forward looking people. They had a high standard of living before the US/UN embargos. They didn't ban education for women, and they did whip men who trimmed their beards. They didn't come shoot you because you were listening to music or watching a movie. As long as you kept your mouth about your government except to shout "Jai ho, Saddam!" you had a decent life.

    • The Taliban and company are completely different. There is no way you will bribe them: these crusaders do not want money, You will make no difference if you push for economic development. They will simply destroy what you create, as they have done to girls' schools and tourist places in Pakistan. If you build libraries, they will burn the books. Every time you try and bring good governance to their areas, they will blow up infrastructure, and assassinate government servants.

    • America, NATO, India, the world: please understand there is only way to deal with people like the Taliban: is to go after them on the ground and kill every one you can in battle and execute those you capture. and please, none of this exceedingly stupid stuff about "interrogations" and Guantanamo Bays. The Taliban are warriors ready to be kill or be killed. Give them the honor that you - if you are a warrior - owe to other warriors. Kill them cleanly and go on to find the next bunch to kill.

    • Don't have the guts to do that? Aren't ready to die for your way of life? Think all they want is Nikes and McDonalds and Levis and rap music and Las Vegas and unlimited pornography because they are just westerners  with beards and funny headgear and will soon see the error of their ways when they attend a Madonna concert? Think killing them is too barbaric and that we must maintain our "values" no matter what the other side does? In that folks, we have a solution that might work - for a while. Give up now, convert to Islam, and they'll let you live. For a while. Then they'll kill you because you aren't their kind of Islam. Who do you think the Taliban have been killing in Afghanistan and Pakistan for the last 15 years? It's Muslims.

    • If you aren't going to fight the Taliban, we suggest you spend your remaining time studying how Islam not just came out of the desert to spread over much of the "civilized" world bar China in under two hundred years, but maintained/expanded its power for the next 800 years.

    • Hint: it wasn't by peddling I-phones and Hustler.

     

     

    0230 GMT February 23, 2009

     

    Short update today. For one thing, there's little news. For another, editor has gone goggly-eyed staring at screen for 12 hours doing homework.

     

    • Swat Taliban showed their sincerity about a a ceasefire and permanent agreement with the government yesterday when they kidnapped the chief administrator of the district along with his bodyguards. Not to worry, said the Taliban: we merely want to talk to him. He is our guest. We will offer him tea. Then we will let him go.

    • Just another day in the Swat Valley Times London correspondent made into the swat Valley after the ceasefire. You can read his report here http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article5780438.ece

    • Among other stories: February 4 a group of 15-20 masked and armed men swarmed a house, killing the owner's mother, wife, and sister-in-law. A sister escaped death by hiding in the cattle pen. The family's crime? They gave water to Pakistan army soldiers outside their house.

    • Girls schools: shut down. Barber shops: cannot cut beards. Women: cannot go outside the house without full body covering. Music: banned. Video games: banned. Billiards: banned. TV: banned. Internet cafes: banned. Police: 100 remain in the Valley. Punishment for disobeying Taliban: public flogging, public shooting; public decapitation, generally staged in the town center; bodies are just left there as a lesson.

    • Now sharia law has been formally declared in six other districts of the NWFP's Malakand Division. (The division, an administrative unit inherited from the British, consists of several counties, several divisions form a province. Pakistan has just four provinces for 170-million people. India shifted to a system of smaller states and districts after Partition.)

    • Meanwhile, Talibs in North and South Waziristan have set aside their differences and joined with the leader of the Pakistan Taliban with the aim of preventing outside forces from entering the region. See Bill Roggio at http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2009/02/north_and_south_wazi.php

    • So, President Obama, General Petraeus, and Ambassador Holbrooke: what do you propose to do while  half of Pakistan (geographically speaking) seems set to become bandit country in varying degrees, Looks like its not just goodbye Afghanistan, but its goodbye Pakistan.

     

     

    0230 GMT February 22, 2009

     

    • When will the Taliban attack Peshawar? Mandeep Singh Bajwa, our South Asia correspondent estimates the Taliban may move as early as 30-90 days from now, but warns that such estimates are difficult to make because of the large number of variables. Islamabad will be the next target.

    • US tells Palestine Authority it can talk to Hamas says Jerusalem Post. The object will be to form a national unity government. If this news is correct, it represents a major change by the new administration. The previous administration was absolutely against any contact with Hamas, regardless that won Hamas won Gaza in a fair election. Israel's efforts to dislodge Hamas has led to much of the tension and crises regarding Palestine in the last two years.

    • Nonetheless, in our opinion, Hamas will not turn into purring puddy-tats. None of the issues that have led both sides to maintain a state of perpetual conflict for the last 62 years has been resolved in any way. Further, the new Israeli government will continue expanding West Bank settlements. There is just so much Hamas can do in compromising with Israel before the people turn against it, as they did against Fatah. Also, don't forget after the last Gaza war, Fatah's reputation is in the sceptic tank. Fatah may be willing to talk to Hamas, but how long will Hamas hold its hand before resuming its push to finish Fatah.

    • Nothing in the Mideast is easy.

    • Meanwhile it is now revealed that Tipzi Livni started out in life working for Mossad in its operations arm. This adds further to the glamour surrounding the Kadima leader.

    • Russia releases Georgia War casualty figures says RIA-Novosti: 63 killed, 283 wounded, 3 missing.

    • Mosquito survives outer space reports Russia's RIA-Novsoti. This fellow slept for 18-months on the outer surface of the International Space Station in temperatures ranging from -160 C to +60 C, and got nothing to eat. He was brought back, where he was declared alive. He is moving his feet.

    • and you thought you were tough.

    • A mosquito today, humans tomorrow?

    • Goodbye, Editor's trillions of dollars The new prime minister of Zimbabwe, Morgan Tsvangirai, has said government servants will be paid in hard currency. Some first payments have already been made. He has asked aid donors for $50-million/month for six months to make the payments.

    • But if Zimbabwe expects a free pass, the UK quickly scotched the idea. It will not provide assistance till a host of changes designed to make Zimbabwe truly democratic are implemented.

    • Tsvangirai won the presidential election last year but could not take power because Robert "The Crocodile" Mugabe forced a recount that miraculously declared him a winner,  The deteriorating situation in Zimbabwe and Mugabe's increasing isolation in the world forced him to create a government of national unity with his opponent Tsvangirai as prime minister. No sooner did the latter agree than Mugabe arrested Roy Bennett, a white farmer designated as agricultural minister, for treason, planning an armed rebellion etc etc.

    • BBC quotes Bennett's wife as saying he has been offered amnesty if the government gives the ruling party immunity for all acts committed in the last 30 years. She says her husband will not agree. So the standoff continues.

    • But whatever happens, for now the Editor is no longer a trillionaire, albeit in Zim dollars. So all those ladies planning to visit him are now free to utilize their time more productively.

    • Stuff that you really must know From Pravda (start at http://english.pravda.ru/science/tech/03-02-2009/107051-humans_aliens-0 and explore).

    • Humans ceased moon missions because they encountered powerful aliens. Humans, however, are planning to return to the moon because it contains supplies of materials rare on earth like aluminum and magnesium. No word on how we plan to pacify the powerful aliens. Probably expose them to American TV which will destroy their minds and reduce them to vegetables. We know this will work because Americans have become vegetables thanks to their TV.

    • Squids can have sex 24/7 for up to two weeks. Meanwhile, some of us humans just cant seem to get a date.

    • Humans will engage in mass communication with aliens in 2114. Editor already engages in mass communication with aliens every school day, namely his students. Though no agreement has been reached on who are the aliens, the students or the Editor.

    • US will cease to exist on February 5, 2006. http://english.pravda.ru/opinion/feedback/17-03-2006/77430-bush-0 This article is placed under one dated 2/20/2009 headlined "Texas Injustice: the tragedy of Timothy Cole". The article talks about "one prosecutor who sent an innocent man to prison later joked about this injustice by boasting, “Anybody can convict a guilty man. It takes talent to convict an innocent one”". On Russia they do things simpler: they let the guilty go free and shoot the innocent.

    • "The life of a man depends on a pair of socks." http://english.pravda.ru/society/stories/12-02-2009/107096-socks-0 New insult - "your life aint worth a pair of socks"?

    • "Most women don't understand a thing about men."  http://english.pravda.ru/society/sex/02-02-2009/107047-men_women-0 We can hear the women of our acquaintance saying "Men have something about them that women need to "understand"? " (While doing the Austin Powers quotation thing with fingers.)

    • Join Pravda.ru forum to experience freedom of speech

     

    0230 GMT February 21, 2009

     

    • Sri Lanka: One Town To Go Sri Lanka army says it has confined LTTE to an area 100 km square, which is less than the area of Washington DC, and that the rebels now have control of only one town.

    • Meanwhile, two rebel propeller light planes were shot down over Colombo. One crashed into a government building, killing two. Media naturally rushed to declare this raid a major embarrassment for the Government, without asking the government if it was embarrassed. Just because your adversary is almost done in doesn't mean he cant stage raids; LTTE is expected to continue terror attacks after the defeat of its conventional force.

    • Foreigners Drop Purchase Of US Long-Term Securities to $412-billion in 2008, less than half of the 2007 total. But they increased their purchases of US Treasuries to $456-billion, an "unprecedented" amount says New York Times.

    • Gee, we wonder why this has happened. Duh.

    • Chinese Say Russians Sink Chinese Cargo Ship after firing 500 rounds at it. The 16-man crew took to lifeboats, only half were saved. The Russians say its the Chinese vessel's fault because it intruded into Russian waters and wouldn't stop when chased by two coast guard ships. There are suggestions the ship was smuggling. The Chinese are upset.

    • Wonder what was the caliber of the shells used, that 500 had to be fired.

    • Likud Invited To Form Israeli Government Its leader has invited Kadima and Isreal Beitenu to join a coalition.

     

    0230 GMT February 20, 2009

     

    • US UAVs in Pakistan Thanks to a forced day off from work because of illness, we were able to communicate with Mandeep Singh Bajwa during a week day. He informs that US UAVs are operating not just from Shamsi, which he says is more correctly known as air base MS13, but also from Jacobabad, which is used by the US as a major air logistics base for the Afghan theatre.

    • Malakand Division Bill Roggio makes an important point which escaped us re. the open ceding of Malakand Division which includes seven districts including Swat, to the Taliban. He says they have doubled their taxation base and the population they directly control. Though Mr. Roggio, cautious as ever, does not take this development to its logical conclusion, clearly both US and India should be prepared for a significantly bigger Taliban army. Our best current estimate is that it has eight brigades with rifle strengths equaling or exceeding that of the standard Indian/Pakistan infantry brigade. This is approximately 700 men for each of three infantry battalions.

    • Israel Finally some movement that may soon see a new government. The Russian immigrant party, Israel Beitenu, has thrown its 15 seats to Netanyahu's Likud, which now has 42 seats, 19 short of a majority. The kindest description of IB might be "fascist"; it is so far to the right that Likud comes off as bunch of Commie-Arab symps.

    • But that does not mean IB is stupid. Far from it. It has insisted that Tipzi Livni's Kadima be included in the coalition, which would give 70 seats without counting other right wing parties. Kadima says it is willing, but that the coalition must accommodate Kadima's more progressive views on the Palestine question.

    • Before you ask, the Palestinian people will not exactly be rejoicing about Kadmia's position. For them, Kadima is very bad, Likud is disastrous, and IB is catastrophic. Both Likud's right-wing elements and IB want to expel Arabs from Israel.

    • From Vijay Mohite On China's Role In A South Asian Conflict Your analysis of India-Pakistan-Taliban situation ignores the big elephant. If India
      takes on Taliban then China would use that opportunity to go for
      Arunachal Pradesh and India wouldn't have political will or military
      option to fight that. Why are you silent about that angle?

    • Editor's Reply PRC traditionally has used military force with great caution, and defensively. This is evident in Korea (1950), India (1962), and the Ussuri River clashes (1969) which followed what China said was 4500 incidents instigated by the soviets in just five years, 1964-69. what about the fighting for Quemoy and Matsu in 1954-57? This was a continuation of the Civil War, moreover, by 1954 the Us had embraced the Nationalists and its cooperation with Taiwan has begun to build up. Coming as it did after Korea, Us action was seen as a dire threat to PRC.

    • In 1979 PRC broke its pattern by attacking Vietnam with several goals in mind, punishing Vietnam for border incidents was only of many aims. And that war ended very badly for the PLA.

    • PRC has no major issues outstanding regarding the border at this time. It has committed to a peaceful solution, and maintains a minimal force in Tibet. Rather, this time around it is India that is seriously aggrieved, as China has intruded onto Indian territory in dozens of places, building roads and occupying positions.

    • In the event of an India-Pakistan showdown precipitated by a Taliban offensive into Indian Kashmir or the fall of Islamabad, PRC is faced with a paralyzing dilemma. It is only a matter of time before the Taliban begin infiltrating into Sinkiang; indeed, they have been doing so on a very small scale since 2002. Anything that helps the Taliban hurts PRC, particularly as Sinkiang has a large Muslim population and feels oppressed by Beijing.

    • It will be near impossible for PRC to act against India, not just for political reasons, but because of military limitations and the US-India alliance. Readers may have noticed that US-India air exercises are integrate the SOPs of both airforces, allowing for US fighter wings to arrive in India at very short notice, and to hit the ground running to use the military metaphor. Incidentally, the first US fighter squadrons would probably arrive within 24 hours and be in action within 48 hours. This cooperation is obviously not directed against Pakistan, India's air force is twice and big and needs no help - aside from which US is still officially allied with Pakistan. The cooperation is directed against PRC.

     

    0230 GMT February 19, 2009

     

    • US UAV Base In Pakistan Reader Rahul Narang asks what is the big deal about the revelation the US has been flying UAVs from Shamshi, an airfield in North Central Baluchistan built to permit Mideast sheiks to directly fly into Pakistan for hunting parties. He says everyone knows about it, so why plaster it on the front pages (Times London story).

    • Good question, and we wish we had an answer. We can say that the public revelation will increase domestic pressure on the civilian Prime Minister because the GWOT is wildly unpopular in Pakistan; the Pakistan-US cooperation even more so.

    • Along similar lines, some journo has written a book saying President Musharraf had dealings with the Taliban.

    • Gee Golly Galoshes. Well, Pakistan created and nurtured the Taliban, and continues to do so as a weapon against the West/India/Kabul in Afghanistan. Yes, sometimes some Taliban factions and the Pakistan military are on the outs because the Taliban is figured out if it can take over Pakistan, it can take over Pakistan as well. We assume that when the Battle of Peshawar begins, there will be further schisms between the Pakistani military establishment and the Taliban, but there will also be a schism with the Pakistan military itself because substantial fractions support the Taliban.

    • So what is the big deal about "revealing" President M's dealings with the Taliban? The Taliban were/are part of Pakistan's national security tools, why shouldn't the former president be dealing with them?

    • And still further along these lines, Times of India has finally woken up to the Taliban threat, using exactly the same language we have done these past few days. They've even spoken to Bill Roggio at www.longwarjournal.org, who we often quote. But has Times of India bothered to talk to Orbat.com - their Washington person lives about 1-km from the Editor? Of course not. Times of India is much too superior to be talking to renegades who've been warning about the Taliban for the last 13 years.

    • Then the Times of India puts out a story saying US winks at Pakistan-Taliban deal. Dudes, have ye no smarts? US, far from winking at anything is in a complete frenzy. The deal has played right into the hands of those American decision-makers who for years have been saying Pakistan CANNOT be trusted in the GWOT. People are unbelievably angry. They cannot publicly say so because Pakistan is officially an ally. This is called "diplomacy". US anger is magnified because Washington knows it has no good options.

    • Not to forget to mention: King Holbrooke the Great has arrived in the region. He was going to use his - um - "forceful" personality to bang Indian and Pakistani heads together to force a settlement on Kashmir. Has be been chastened by the Indians telling Washington if he opened his mouth about Kashmir he would be given the unroyal boot? US understood, to the point it removed Kashmir from his remit. But Mr. Holbrooke has opened his innings in the region by saying India and Pakistan face a common enemy, the Taliban. Geez, mon, grow up. Do you really think India and Pakistan will start kissy-facing because of the Taliban, moreover, do so because you've appointed yourself matchmaker?

    • We warn the US: this man has the potential to single-handedly queer the pitch for US wherever he goes in South Asia because of his personality problems. Just because he beat up a bunch of FRY microstates doesn't mean he will have the slightest impact in South Asia. And please no one come complaining to us about the man, because if you can't see he's exactly the wrong man for the job, then you deserve what you're going to get.

     

    0230 GMT February 18, 2009

     

    Indian Defense Budget 2009-10

    Mandeep Singh Bajwa

     

    US$/INR conversion at rate of $1 to Rs 48. India spends ~$17,000/year per serviceman excluding pensions, R & D, and nuclear programs.

    • The budget allocation for defence for the coming year has been proposed to be fixed at $30-billion. This is a significant increase of $7.5-billion over last year’s allocation of $21-billion (the figures dont match because the rupee has weakened against the dollar). The hike amounts to a 35% hike in the defence budget. Heightened threat perception after the Mumbai attacks is reflected in the increased allotment. It seems the Govt has learned the right lessons from the attacks and the loopholes they showed up in national security.

    • The problems facing all 3 Defence Services are common:  lacklustre modernisation, slow pace of equipment procurement and an increasing lack of attractiveness for the Armed Forces as careers. There has been a small increase in the allocation for weapons and equipment procurement from Rs $10-billion last year to $11-billion in the coming financial year. Does the Govt hope to fund badly needed military modernisation through this smallish increase?

    • A streamlined, foolproof system of weapons acquisition is still to be put in place despite the best efforts of the Armed Forces. This needs the Govt’s urgent attention. What measures is the UPA Govt taking to make the Defence Services an appealing career? Again urgent action is required here in the light of massive shortages in officer-rank personnel at the cutting edge.

    •  What must also be kept in mind is that despite the nearly 35 per cent increase this year, India's defence spending is still about two per cent of the GDP, compared to China's seven per cent and Pakistan's five per cent.  Strategic compulsions dictate that a further increase in defence spending must be on the Govt’s agenda if  progress is to be adequately protected.

     

    Editor's Comment

     

    • We'll have to wait till we see the detailed defense budget before saying what is going on, but a 35% increase, largely for Operations and Maintenance, is a huge jump when no war is underway. We suspect India is significantly boosting its war readiness, MSB says some of the extra money is for troop and officer accommodation, but that can be only a small part of the jump.

    • MSB's irritation at the Government's slow modernization pace is justified if you consider the following. The Indian Air Force is short ~500 4th Gen fighters alone of its target of  ~30 fighter squadrons (UE 16, plus 9 for Strike Off Wastage, trainers etc). At a modest price of $50-million per fighter, that's $25-billion right there. To convert all field artillery to 155mm and MLRS requires 3500 new systems. at a modest price of $3-million each, that's $11-billion. The Army needs a minimum of 600 helicopters and more likely 1000 considering it is to raise two strike mountain divisions. That's another $20-billion there. The army needs 3500 new tanks; even if they are T-90s at a good price, that's $13-billion there. And so on.

    • The reasons India has lagged so badly in weapon modernization lies beyond the scope of this discussion, but has to do with the rundown in defense spending from 4% GDP in the 1980s to 2% GDP now

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    0230 GMT February 17, 2009

     

    This is amusing: HMS Vanguard and the French Le Triomphant, collided while on separate patrols in the Atlantic Ocean. Both are so quiet neither had any clue about the other. Because they were doing their boomer thing, they were moving very slowly and at "great depth". The French missile boat thought it had struck a submerged container; it is only days later when the French and Royal Navies were doing an information share that people realized two boats had collided. No one was hurt because of the low speed. Of course, both must have had their sonar off, because you don't want to be detected. And also of course, there are many passive sensors on board. It's a tribute to modern quieting strategy that neither detected the other. Experts say the part of the Atlantic in which the boats patrolled is a favorite spot for the US and Russian Navies also because ocean characteristics make it easy to hide. Still, given the size of the ocean its remarkable this accident happened.

     

    Pakistan III: Military Factors

     

    • Quite Unusually, India Has Developed and is prepared for a wide range of Pakistan front contingencies. India tends to the ad hoc, and the best recent example is the Kargil War 1999, which was a masterpiece of lack of planning and strategic outcome. India pushed Pakistan back across the Line of Control in a well-fought campaign, and then went back to sucking its thumb so that the Pakistanis paid no price whatsoever besides the loss of perhaps 800 soldiers. Given the sizes of the two militaries, this is of little consequence.

    • The lessons of 2002 seem to have been well learned: at that time India fully mobilized against Pakistan following the terrorist attack on the Indian parliament, but 8-9 months later sent troops back to peace stations since no one could quite figure how to retaliate without leading to a full-scale war.

    • In 2009, the Indians have sensibly planned from the start for a full-scale, "Last Round" type of war, should any of several short-of-war options escalate to all-out conflict.

    • Let us divide the options into two categories. A: this is going to happen in 2009 regardless of what Pakistan does, as retaliation for Bombay 2008. We'd advise the US not to preen itself too much at having avoided war between India and Pakistan, because nothing has been avoided. Pakistan's cooperation in uncovering the Bombay event means nothing to India, because Pakistan has paid no price for the attack and there is no deterrent to make Pakistan think twice before the next terror attack arrives.

    • Incidentally, its no coincidence that a lot of the language you hear in Indian military/strategic circles sounds eerily like the language you hear in Israel: India's new deterrence concepts are lifted straight from Gaza 2009. But we digress.

    • Category B covers options that are being held back while India waits to see how things play out in Pakistan.

    • In the A category, Option A1 is a covert operation against Pakistan, intended as a hard smack to pay back Pakistan for the Kabul and Bombay attacks. Personally we think this is a very lame option, but no one asked us, so we will cry into our pink lace hankies and bravely proceed with life.

    • Option A2 is a mini-Gaza: a limited, but violent attack against terror bases in West Pakistan perhaps 72-hours or more, followed by an immediate declaration of "We won" and a withdrawal. Nothing will be achieved, as was the case with Gaza, but it will make India feel very good about itself. Personally, we think Option A2 is even more pathetic than A1, which is about as pathetic as one can get. There is neither tactical nor strategic gain from either. Again, no one asked our opinion, and right now we're looking for our blue lace hanky in which to weep, our feelings are so hurt.

    • So what if A2 is used and Pakistan retaliates? Option B1a calls for unleashing an Indian offensive against North Kashmir; B1a+ calls for an offensive against all Kashmir; and B2 - should Pakistan escalate again, calls for total war.

    • By the way, our readers need to take a deep breath: this A1 and B1a+ etc business is purely the editor's labels. The labeling the Indians are using is nothing like this; moreover, the real options only loosely approximate our categories. But for discussion, one needs to simply things and that is what we're doing.

    • Okay. Suppose India exercises A2 and Pakistan does not retaliate - please remember, it does not have to. India never retaliated against Pakistan during the 25+ year Kashmir insurgency, the 1999 War, and the 2002 crisis. Escalation is not automatic. In this case, India will sit back.

    • Of course, you and I both know Pakistan will only step up terror attacks - one reason we thing Category A is lame. India will step up retaliation. Pakistan will step up terror attacks. Etc. So lets forget about this and move on.

    • Now suppose the Taliban take Peshawar and move on Islamabad. We're being "scholarly" here, with caveats and reservations; any Indian planner who operates on the assumption the fall of Peshawar is a "suppose" is being grossly negligent. At this point our crystal ball gets murky, because while we know what the Indian military wants to do, what the political/bureaucratic side does no one can tell. Will it stand firm or will it wimp out? Rationally, better to assume it will wimp out.

    • Left to the military, the fall of Peshawar would signal the start of an inevitable war with the Taliban for Kashmir, and the military wants to meet the Taliban in the foothills of West Kashmir, not on the Line of Control. Very sensible. This means an advance into West Kashmir that may not stop before India takes all of West Kashmir. If you're going to do this, you may as well take North Kashmir too, otherwise you'll be fighting the Taliban there as they seek to outflank India in west Kashmir. This is B1 again,

    • If the politicals wimp put, as the editor thinks likely, then India will meet the Taliban on the Line of Control and then attack all Kashmir.

    • We've already mentioned at other times that if Pakistan escalates, then its Option B2, all out war. We wanted to discuss this with our readers, but the current situation is such that neither Mandeep Singh Bajwa nor the editor will be doing their duty if we discussing detailed operational plans. We aren't saying its so big a secret that Pakistan and the US don't already know most of the details; all we're saying is that we cant discuss them with our readers.

    • In addition, some very preliminary thinking is being done about a Category C. This is - as we've mentioned in earlier days - is a contingency that foresees the Taliban going for Islamabad (they are already infiltrating) and the center of Pakistan's gravity, the West Punjab. In this case even the wimpy politicals are not going to wait for the war to come to India. India will go to war, but in cooperation with anti-Taliban factions of the Army. Are there any such factions? Will they remain anti-Taliban if the Taliban seem to be unstoppable? This is for another day.

    • Just keep in mind - as we've said before: did anyone think in 1993 or earlier that the Taliban would rule Afghanistan by 1996? Don't assume the fall of Pakistan Punjab to the Taliban is impossible. as for Baluchistan, we honestly dont know enough to tell you what will happen there. Suffice it to say if the Taliban move against Pakistan Punjab, the fall of Baluchistan is a mere detail for the Taliban.

    • Are we trying to scare the Indians and the Americans? Not at all. Bill Roggio saw the fall of the NWFP to the Taliban two years ago. We dont think anyone took him seriously. Your editor foretold the Taliban would be at India's gate in 10-15 years. We know Pakistanis, Indians, and Afghans who have been warning of what's going on in that part of the world, for the last 2+ years.

    • Its human nature not to want to get bad news. All we're doing is to tell you the situation is spinning out of US, Pakistani, and Indian control very quickly. There will be downs in the Taliban's march into Pakistan. The fall of Pakistan may not happen as quickly as we assume. But that its going to happen? don't doubt that, unless US, Pakistan, India act now.

       

       

       

       

      0230 GMT February 16, 2009

       

      Bill Roggio wrote telling us that the Pakistan Government has accepted the imposition of Sharia law in the districts of Malakand Division, NWFP. Media reports Pakistan Taliban have declared a 10-day ceasefire in Swat District which presumably will be extended. Mr. Roggio says Peshawar is essentially under siege by the Taliban. We spoke to Mandeep Singh Bajwa. He says the Taliban are continuing to infiltrate the city and will take it from the inside. We asked what Pakistan XI Corps, which is headquartered in the city, will do in that event. MSB says while many Pakistani troops will fight, many will not. He says the Pakistan Army is both confused and demoralized by the Taliban insurgency with large numbers of Pakistani troops who have been radicalized over the last 30 years asking why they are being asked to fight their brothers in the Taliban.

       

      Pakistan II: The N-Weapon Factor

       

    • The Western Media usually waits till the third para of any Indo-Pakistan story to remind everyone that Pakistan is armed with nuclear weapons. The assumption is any Indian action against Pakistan risks nuclear war.

    • The west may be surprised to learn the Indian military does not consider Pakistan N-weapons to be a factor in any combination of Indian contingency plans for war with Pakistan.

    • The Editor's View has been stated many times. He believes on the basis of his research and information that Pakistan has just a merely handful of warheads, perhaps as low as two and perhaps as many as four. He anticipates the stockpile will grow by two warheads a year.

    • The Indian military is uninterested, however, in if Pakistan has four or forty warheads. The number is irrelevant.

    • India sees the following contingencies where Pakistan may order N-release. Against an Indian tank advance into Multan, if Pakistan defenses are collapsing, the Indians see a shot across the bow, or perhaps an attack on a rear, static military target like a big support base. The Indians have not revealed their response to your Editor, at least. So he cannot say if the Indians will simply ignore the bow shot and continue their advance - the Editor's recommendation, or if they will retaliate against an equivalent Pakistan target.

    • A second possibility is a strike against a small civilian target. India has made it clear to Pakistan that should any civilians be bombed, then the gloves are off and India will attack all Pakistani cities of significance. India has clearly said it is uninterested in nuclear warfighting. It is invested in deterrence. If deterrence fails, the Indians will let go with everything. India will survive. Pakistan will not.

    • India believes Pakistan will not use N-weapons in response to an Indian advance in North Kashmir, that an advance in West Kashmir carries with it the possibility the Pakistanis will retaliate with a demonstration, and Pakistan cannot react to an advance into Pakistan Punjab from the north or the east because this is a very heavily populated area. The probability is Pakistan will kill a large number of its own civilians. It is only in the open territory south of Suliemanke that any use of N-weapons can be made, unless Pakistan hits a civilian target.

    • Are the Indians Being Cavalier about the Pakistan N-Threat? No they are not. They are simply being realistic. To begin with, South Asians are not the mass suicide types. With the exception of the Rajputs, of course. The Rajputs fought the Islamic invaders - and each  other - for near 7 centuries. If they won, it was all forgive and forget and go back to your every day business. If they lost, they went down fighting to the last man - after making sure the women immolated themselves so as to save themselves from dishonor. We all know what happened to these incredibly brave men and women, the likes of whom the world has never seen. They lost.

    • South Asians would rather be Red than Dead. If you commit suicide, that kind of limits your options. If you live to fight another day, there's always the chance this time you'll win. And that's all there is to it.

    • Uncle Sam One thing the Indians never talk of because they haven't at all thought the matter through is the role of the US in a n-crisis. US has built up a mythology which convinces no one except itself, that it has repeatedly averted N-war in South Asia. There never has been a chance of N-war; if India did not attack Pakistan, say in 2002, it wasn't because of the alleged Pakistan N-weapons, but because the Indians couldn't figure what the end game was, and what they stood to gain should any attack on Pakistan escalate to all-out war.

    • But now what runs through the Indian sub-conscious is this formulation: Who has the most to lose should Pakistan roll out its nuclear weapons? Its the US. As such, let the US take care of the problem.

    • This formulation, even if not articulated or even thought through, is growing with the US's increasing desperation not only in Afghanistan, but in Pakistan. Every day the possibility increases that we are going to see a new state in South Asia, Pakhtunistan, joining Afghan and Pakistani Pastuns. This is going to completely upset existing paradigms and create mass confusion in the world's chancelleries.

    • The simple truth is: if it has not already secured Pakistan's small N-arsenal, the US is going to have to do this. Editor believes US has secured the arsenal; interestingly the Indians believe the Pakistanis have full control. Either way, the minute the US picks up evidence that warheads are leaving storage areas for delivery to the rocket regiments, it will have no choice but to stage its own intervention. Given the state of Pakistan today, no worse nightmare exists for the US than the possibility Pakistani N-warheads are loose on Pakistan military bases. What's to stop, for example, officers/soldiers who support the Taliban from taking the weapons AND launchers over to the Taliban?  Even the possibility will give Washington the shakes...nuclear fire over Kabul, anyone?

    • So, folks, we suggest the Indians know full well Pakistani N-weapons are an American problem. They are not an Indian problem, and they will not deter from doing what it has to regarding Pakistan.

    • Tomorrow: India's military options/plans.

     

    0230 GMT February 15, 2009

     

    Pakistan I: Geopolitical Situation

    Pakistan II: The N-Weapon Factor (February 16, 2009)

    Pakistan III: Military Factors (February 17, 2009)

     

    • Mandeep Singh Bajwa and the editor had a lengthy conversation on what happens if the situation in Pakistan continues to worsen, and what happens if the Taliban move against Indian Kashmir. The editor's concern was that the Indians, with their usual cheerful habit of now worrying about the future until the future smacks them, are not taking the Pakistan situation seriously.

    • MSB said actually they are. They are assuming Pakistan will disintegrate. They aren't saying much because  they are confident they can handle the situation, and are already doing contingency planning for both possibilities, (a) that the Taliban pose a serious threat to the Government of Pakistan by taking Peshawar and threatening Islamabad, while expanding their attacks/influence into Pakistan Punjab, and (b) that the Taliban attack Indian Kashmir.

    • More importantly, MSB said that Mrs. Sonia Gandhi's speeches indicate that India will launch operations against Pakistan before the May elections; the only question is will the operations be overt or covert.

    • In the editor's opinion, any operation will precipitate the inevitable, a final showdown between India and Pakistan. Mrs. Gandhi is, of course, the real head of the Congress Party; she would have become prime minister but for an uproar about her foreign birth. The country is quite unhappy that India did not strike back for the Bombay attacks, and pressure on the government is restrained only the government has indicated it does not want to act hastily, but act it will. Any successful operation against Pakistan will enormously boost Congress's electoral standing. Further, the Indians have carefully studied Israel's operation against Gaza and concluded that not only is action required, but India must retaliate before another Bombay happens. The feeling from all sides - Pakistan and India - is that not just one Bombay, but several, are in preparation. Right now the Indians are uninterested in splitting hairs about if the next terror strikes are sanctioned by the Pakistan government. If they are, India must retaliate; if they are not, the Pakistan government is in the same position as the Lebanon government was in 2006, unable to control its territory, and in imitation of Israel, India needs to retaliate.

    • MSB and the editor agreed that the Indian government will welcome Pakistani counter escalation in response to Indian action against Pakistan because this will give India the excuse to launch all out war.

    • MSB says in the event of any Taliban attack on Kashmir, the Indians will react with all-out war; there is no intent to confine the war to Indian Kashmir, as has been the case for the last 25 years. So either way, war is coming, whether Pakistan counter escalates against the planned Indian action, which may be overt or covert, or whether the Taliban strike before the Indians do.

    • The editor's analysis is that a Taliban strike lies in the late 2010 time frame at the earliest, and depends much on what happens in Afghanistan in 2009-10.

    • Knowing that India will welcome a Pakistan counter-escalation, what is Pakistan's response to an Indian operation, say a 72-hour attack on terror camps in West Kashmir, followed by a unilateral Indian withdrawal, with an Israeli-style announcement of "Mission Accomplished"?

    • It could easily swing either way. (a) The Pakistanis grit their teeth and swallow the insult, as India did in the Kargil War 1999 or in the immediate aftermath of Bombay 2008. The Indians took back their lost positions in 1999 but advanced no further. (b) The insult is too much for the Pakistani people, particularly the Pakistan Army, and a counter escalation takes place.

    • Now, what about the American elephant, which has settled himself firmly in the region and is squashing both India and Pakistan?

    • The least attractive option for America is a limited Indian attack on terror camps in West Kashmir. This helps America not one little bit, and creates immense problems, because it adds to the destabilization of Pakistan.

    • In the editor's analysis, while America will not be celebrating if India goes all-out against Pakistan, India's action could leave the US free to act against Taliban Country, west of the Indus River. That opens up the question of joint Indo-US objectives and support, as in American airpower in exchange for Indian ground power.

    • The big unknown is the endgame. India seems, oddly, to have at least the outlines of a plan. We say oddly because the Indians never think even one step ahead, leave alone go through all the permutations and combinations that could result from the fall of Pakistan. The boldest thinking lies along the lines of asking West Punjab and Sindh to join India on any basis as reasonable to both sides. The middle lies in withdrawing from Pakistan territory with the exception of Kashmir and 2-3 districts of west Pakistan to enhance Indian defensive depth in the Jammu-Pathankot corridor, and letting Pakistan alone except to prevent its rearmament. The most timid action lies in withdrawing with the above exceptions, letting Pakistan go where it will, and resting content that Kashmir is again part of India.

    • Which option will India adopt? We don't have a clue, and truthfully, neither do the Indians.

    • But what about the American endgame? Now that's a great mystery.

     

    0230 GMT February 14, 2009

     

    We are sorry to report that after 90-minutes rapid browsing on the web, we found not one interesting news story. With the exception of a science story which says in the early days of the universe there were small galaxies featuring stars at the incredible density of 1-million/cubic light year as opposed to the more usually 1 star/cubic light year. In such a galaxy, the night sky would be as bright as our day sky. Stars were constantly crashing into each other; this must have made for some nice fireworks. And such a galaxy must have been incredibly turbulent in terms of gravity, so that any attempt at starfaring would have created journeys that are - um - interesting.

     

    0230 GMT February 13, 2009

     

    • Finally We Feel Justified In Making Our Little Forays Into The US Economic Situation US National Security Council now believes the greatest threat to world security arises from the economic disruptions underway.

    • Indian Air Force Reequipment according to the Times of India, the IAF will consist of 230 Su-30s, 126 Light Combat Aircraft (choice still to be made), upgraded 117 Mig-29/Mirage 2000s, and (our estimate) 80 Jaguars. The indigenous Tejas fighter will be inducted and presumably it, or more su-30s, or a combination, will replace the MiG-29/Mirage/Jaguar in the next decade.

    • SAM procurement aside from indigenous missiles includes 9 squadrons of the 120-km version of the Israeli Barak. The cost is $220-million per squadron.

    • Canada, US Home Ownership Identical at 68% So big deal, you say. Actually, it is a big deal because the US home mortgage interest deduction is a major loss of taxes - thus raising other taxes, and is justified on the ground that home ownership is a social good, leading, for example, to more stable neighborhoods. But Canada has no such deduction, and it can be argued Canada has greater urban stability than the US.

    • Which leaves one scratching one's head.

    • Also, Canadian banks are required to hold $13 for every $100 they loan, compared to $9 for the US, if we have understood the figures correctly. And Canadian banks have been more conservative in their lending. Consequence: Canadian banks are in excellent shape, no crisis there. Same is true of US community banks, by the way.

    • A school of thought is rising in the US which says somewhere along the line those who run corporations began to consider the traditional partnership of labor, investors, and management as irrelevant and embarked on a new goal: the enrichment of management at the cost of labor and investors. This has led to serious distortions in US private enterprise. For example, in the last 30 years the pay differential between the lowest and highest paid employees has grown from 40:1 to 360:1; and in the day when the editor was learning his economics, ethically 10:1 was consider ideal and fair.

    • BTW, anyone note the irony in that this Grand Theft, including theft of our children's' future, is being committed by the Boomers, who prided themselves on their social conscience and therefore moral superiority over their parents?

    • Chalk another downer for the Boomers who seem to have an unparalleled knack for destroying structures and replacing them with structures catering to their self-centeredness at the cost of others.

    • Speaking of which, the editor is increasingly hearing: "You think the Boomers are being selfish now? Wait till they get into their late 60s and above, and they will suck such a huge percentage of America's resources that little will be left for anyone else. They will do this through their voting power, because this is the biggest generation, by far, in American history.

    • Thank you, Lord, for allowing the editor just that little bit of leeway of being born among the last of the Beats instead of the first of the Boomers.

     

    0230 GMT February 12, 2009

     

    • Israeli Elections Tipzi Livini's Kadima won 28 seats to Netanhyu's Likud with 27, but the President of Israel will call on the party that has a better chance of a stable coalition. Right now it is utterly pointless for us as outsiders to explain to our reader, also outsiders, the permutations and combinations of the various parties that will make up both coalitions. Best to wait and see till some clarity emerges. Till then, right-wing parties banding with Likud are likely to provide the more stable coalition - but again, don't take anything for granted.

    • Just Another Day in Mexico Chihuahua State: a town of 1500, 80-miles south of Texas. A drug gang kidnapped nine members of a rival gang; murdered six along the highway outside the town, at which point Mexican Army troops killed 14 gang members for the loss of one soldier, and rescued the remaining hostages.

    • UK Preemepts Anticipated US Request for More Troops by announcing 300 engineers will join the UK contingent of 8200. US was expected to ask for two infantry battalions, 1500 troops, but UK will indicate it has reached its limited.

    • Italy will add 800 troops to its 2000 strong contingent and may permit its troops to operate in combat zones.

    • You know NATO is in trouble when it scrambles to find troop contingent numbering in the hundreds.

    • Sri Lanka Army says it was confined the rebels into a 67-square-mile area.

     

    0230 GMT February 11, 2009

    • Battle for Pakistan NWFP's Almost Over A map prepared by www.longwarjournal.org shows only two districts in the entire NWFP as remaining firmly under Government control. These are Haripur and Abbotabad, just a few miles north of Islamabad.

    • Five districts are still under government control but the Taliban has significant influence. In six districts government and Taliban are fighting for control.

    • But eighteen districts have fallen to the Taliban. Even if government troops are still present and fighting, the Taliban has imposed its own rules in these districts.

    • http://www.longwarjournal.org/maps/pakistan/NWFP_redmap_021020081.php

    • India and the Taliban We are not going to waste time bashing the incredible American hubris that has led to the loss of Afghanistan despite a brilliant 2001 campaign than won the entire country, or the hubris that has led to the fall of the NWFP.

    • Rather, we'll talk briefly of India. The Taliban are now just the width of single districts (American counties) away from Indian Kashmir, and they have already begun their attack on Pakistan Punjab.

    • In 1996 the Editor warned of the danger to India arising because of the Taliban conquest of Afghanistan. Delhi's reaction? Three people read the analysis, all three went to sleep reading it - it was two pages - and never got back or commented. As late as 2007 the editor warned visiting Indian senior military officers in Washington that the Taliban were on the move east. He was firmly told: "You've been away too long and don't know anything about the region. The Taliban are no threat to India."

    • Okay folks, so I'm wrong and the Government of India is right. But please notice, folks: I live in the US. You're about to become next door neighbors to the Taliban. Good luck.

    • There is only one Indian force ready to take on the Taliban when it hits Kashmir. That's the Indian Army. It has not let down its guard in Kashmir, and continues a steady and far-reaching infantry modernization plus has begun a massive expansion of its helicopter forces (Indian Army and Air Force combined).

    • The Taliban have not had a real fight on the ground ever. In 2001 under the massive assault of American airpower, they had to retreat into Pakistan. Since then they have hit and run against NATO forces in Afghanistan. The Pakistan Army has been defeated by them.

    • We are told that the Indian Army is eagerly awaiting the Taliban's arrival in Kashmir. It has been bored stiff with the 20-year insurgency, which saw only one multi-brigade battle; all others have been fought at platoon and company level, with an occasional battalion operation.

    • Are we worried about the Taliban attacking Indian Punjab? Not really. India already has fought and defeated a major insurgency in this state, in the 1980s. The state will have to return a war footing to cope with a new insurgent onslaught, but that is no big deal. As for conventional attacks, well, we don't think the Taliban are stupid enough to ever think about that. The Indian Army is organized and sized to fight the 600,000 man Pakistan Army and a 250,000 PLA force simultaneously - that's before the new expansion that is underway.

    • What we are worried about is the prospect of 20-50 million Pakistani refugees when the Taliban takes over Pakistan. In 1971 4-million Bangali refugees (yes, folks, the actual number was that, not 20-million as Mrs. Gandhi skillfully got the world to believe) created a destabilization of Northeast India that continues to this day. The impact of the likely West Pakistan refugee flood is almost inconceivable.

    • That is why, Mandeep Singh Bajwa tells us, the Indian national security establishment has begun considering in a preliminary way, various scenarios where India may have go to the help of non-jihadi elements of the Pakistan Army. A minor difference between Mandeep and the Editor is that the latter believes in another 10 years there will NO non-jihadi elements in the Pakistan Army.

    • On the other hand, the Editor has to admit Mandeep understands Punjabi culture - East and West Punjab - must better than the Editor. Mandeep believes Pakistan Punjab, if faced with the choice of succumbing to the Taliban or joining with India to fight the Taliban will choose the latter.

     

    0001 GMT February 10, 2009

     

    Bill Roggio on Al-Qadea in Pakistan

    http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2009/02/al_qaedas_paramilita.php

     

    • In summary, Bill Roggio says that between 3 and 4 brigades of Al-Qaeda troops are operating against Coalition forces in Afghanistan and the Pakistan Army in the NWFP. Taliban fighters are part of these units, so that now it is pointless to differentiate between AQ and the Taliban. Units include Brigade 055, which has exceeded its 2001 strength of 2000 men.

    • Additionally several Arab brigades have been formed, with men from several countries including Iraq, and including members of Saddam's Republican Guard.

    • This army is hardly ragtag, Mr. Roggio says. They are well equipped and well-trained, have constructed extensive fixed defenses to protect their bases, and have repeatedly beaten the Pakistan Army.

    • Included in the article you will find a link to an Al Jazzera video, which shows troops of 63 Frontier Force retreating as fast as possible after their advanced elements, backed by tanks, were ambushed by insurgents they had been sent to clear out.

    • 63 FF is hardly a new battalion, it was raised around 1980 accord to Mandeep Singh Bajwa. The battalion lost just 2 killed and seven wounded in the ambush, yet something like 1400 Pakistani soldiers (other units were involved) simply cut and ran.

    • To be sure, they did not flee till the senior officer commanding the operation told the battalion commander to retreat back to base camp. This creates the suspicion, in our mind, that the senior officer had no intention of fighting the insurgents. But what surprised us was the evident unwillingness of the men to get into the fight, and the readiness of the battalion commander to agree to a withdrawal.

    • What is going on here? We just cannot believe an entire FF Battalion retreated in the face of a minor ambush. What has happened to the Pakistan Army? We just cannot understand. And frankly, though Mr. Bajwa and the editor are both from India, we are saddened by this abject humiliation of what was once a worthy foe.

    • Mr. Roggio tells us that the Pakistan infantry will simply not close with the insurgents. It prefers artillery barrages and gunship/airstrikes, so not only do the Pakistanis have no real clue about insurgent casualties, apparently the insurgents simply break away when they come under artillery/air attack, and then return as the Pakistan Army withdraws back to base.

    • The battalion you see in the video was sent to recapture ground the Pakistan Army had retaken just five days previous and then immediately lost.

     

    What will Happen if US Withdraws from Afghanistan?

    Major A.H. Amin (Retired)

     


    Having stayed in Afghanistan from 2003 till 2009 and having traveled he entire length and breadth of the country , following is my analysis. 

    1-A new Afghan civil war would recommence with immense ferocity.
    2-Since the population of Afghanistan's Northern half does not like the Taliban , the would welcome with open arms any foreign power which intervenes in Afghanistan against Taliban.
    3-These could include Russia, Iran, India, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Turkey etc.
    4-Taliban would immediately within four weeks control south Afghanistan but would be unable to capture Kabul.
    5-Pakistan and Saudi Arabia may be the only countries which would support Taliban.
    6-USA would lose all credibility that it has gained in Afghanistan till to date and Russians, Indians and Iranians would control North Afghanistan.
    7-Groundwork will be done and Afghanistan would be partitioned into a Pashtun and Non Pashtun state.
    8-This in turn would lead to Pashtun resurgence in the region and a new Pashtun state may be created.
    9-The Taliban would stay isolated internationally.
    10-South Afghanistan would be a haven of all anti US groups.
    11-The region would remain unstable the instability can spread to Iran , Pakistan, India and China.
    12-The next Indo Pak war would be fought by proxy in Afghanistan.
    13-The war in Afghanistan has the potential to trigger an Indo Pakistan nuclear trigger off.


     

     

    Bloomberg on the stimulus/bailouts

     

    • Bloomberg, owned by the Mayor of New York, has provided statistics that show US has committed $10-trillion to stimulus/bailouts, or approximately $33,000 per child, man, and woman in the US. Now, much of the money may get paid back. But it may not, no one knows, and the stock market believes even this astronomical sum is insufficient. The packages equal 60% of the entire US GDP.

    • Thanks to reader Flymike for the URL http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aGq2B3XeGKok&refer=home

     

     

     

     

     

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