New Document

Pakistan Correction Yesterday we wrongly stated that the Taliban had killed a second pro-government Taliban leader, this time in Shangla District east of Buner. It was anti-Taliban tribal militia leader who died.
Meanwhile, www.longwarjournal.org notes the Taliban have moved into Manshera District. This brings them right to the border of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. We will watch with interest what happens now.
Nigeria Government security forces captured the leader of the Islamist sect who has been responsible for attacks on police stations. The Army handed him over to the police, who shot him dead as he attempted to "escape". Figures of up to 600 killed, mostly Islamists, are being mentioned as a final toll.
Europe's Last Communist Regime Falls as the opposition wins elections in Moldovia. Nonetheless, the opposition consists of four separate parties: the Communist Party remains the largest single party, with 45% of the vote.
German Troops New Rules of Engagement German MOD says troops are now permitted to shoot at fleeing attackers. The rule change comes in the context of German forces participation in a NATO offensive in Afghanistan's Kunduz Province in the north. Three hundred German troops troops are involved.

0230 GMT July 30, 2009

"Cornered Mehsud Seeks Peace Talks" say Pakistan government sources according to the Times of India. The Pakistan security forces have a "near perfect stranglehold" on him, and other Taliban leaders have been advising him to make up with the government so as not to distract from the Afghan war. If Mehsud calls off his war against Pakistan, the Army will consider "temporarily" postponing a push against him.
So now you know how the proposed peace deal with Mehsud is being presented to the people of Pakistan and the US. If the security forces really have a "near perfect stranglehold" on him, why negotiate? Why not just kill him?
Meanwhile, the Taliban have knocked off another pro-Government Taliban leader. The first had come out against Mehsud. The new victim is from Shangla, the district to the East of Buner that the Taliban entered after they took Buner.
Ambassador Holbrooke seems full of jolly pronouncements. Yesterday's was his wondering if the Taliban had been defeated in Swat or merely scattered; the day before that he wanted the refugees returned to Swat before Pakistan went into South Waziristan. It's all very strange: as America's top negotiator for the region why is he even running up and down making public statements?
"Pounds 20,000 sealed deal with Afghan Taliban?" asks the Times of India, quoting agencies, which quote western diplomats and Afghan politicians. Bit of background: the other day Kabul and the Taliban in Badghis, a northern province, announced a true to permit the elections to be held. Afghan government hailed this as a breakthrough.
So we don't understand why western diplomats or anyone is getting upset. This is the way things are done in this part of the world, and always have been done. The US used a modification of this policy to pacify large parts of Iraq - we refer to the Sunni Awakenings, most of whose members were associated with the insurgency.
People fight if they feel left out of a system; by paying off the Taliban Kabul is including them in the system. If it works, why not go for it?
Nigeria Security forces rescued 95 women and children whose husbands/fathers are fighting with the Islamist leader under siege in Northern Nigeria. Death toll is now 180, with the discovery of 30 more bodies from one of the assaults launched by the group against Nigerian police.
US Might Accelerate Iraq Withdrawal says the New York Times, quoting the Defense Secretary. Two brigades were originally scheduled to return this year; it might become three brigades. 80,000 troops are to come home in 2010, leaving a residual force of 30-50,000. Orbat.com has its doubts if the Iraqis will let so large a residual force stay, but it's too early to make any definite judgements.

0230 GMT July 29, 2009

Islamist Attacks in Northern Nigeria After attacks on police stations left 140 dead, mostly Islamists, the Nigerian government has sent the Army against the group responsible. Though the group is referred to as the Nigerian Taliban, it has nothing to do with the Taliban. Indeed, apparently the group doesn't even have a formal name for itself - the Taliban appellation is the doing of locals.
The leader of the group is in his 30s, enjoys nice cars, is educated, but says he is against western education. He also believes the earth is not round, Darwinism is not correct, and rain is not precipitated from clouds.
Nigeria's four northern provinces have Sharia law; this group wants a stricter interpretation. Though occasional clashes between minority Christians in the North and Muslims have resulted in thousands of deaths over the years, this particular mini-uprising is not supported by the majority of Muslims.
"The Recession is Over" headlines Newsweek, and wishes people good luck in surviving the recovery. Some pessimists say as opposed to the usual 2.5% growth of the US economy, 1% is more realistic for several years. That's about what the population increase is; so after 30 odd years of no real increase in most people's standard of living, we can look forward to many more years of effective zero percent growth.
Everyone has a theory as to why the standard of living is not rising, but one that makes a lot of sense is that the steady rise in health care costs has eaten up most of the per capita income growth of recent decades. In 1980, for example, US was already spending a colossal 9% of GDP on health; the figure has now reached 17% and continues to climb much faster than the GDP.
The End Of the F-22 We're sad that Congress has agreed to end the program at 187 aircraft against the 750 projected when the program began. The aircraft has had its share of problems concerning the maintenance hours per flight hour, but there is no doubt it is a superb plane. We're told it can take F-15s on at odds of 1:6 and shoot-down the F-15s before the F-22 is even detected.
The problem, of course, is that the F-22 was designed for a party to which no one came. The Soviet Union collapsed, and the fighters the F-22 was intended to master never materialized. So the US Secretary of Defense is correct when he says we shouldn't be spending more money on buying F-22s.

0230 GMT July 28, 2009

Iran Fareed Zakaria, who writes for Newsweek and the Washington Post, and who has a global outlook, has given a potential answer to our question of what's going on in Iran.
He says the theocracy is dying in Iran and the current president has been shifting power to the military. We'd noted some time ago that most of his Cabinet ministers are former Revolutionary Guard senior commanders, as is the President himself.
This of course still doesn't answer the larger question of why he has decided to move against his staunchest clerical supporter who still is, after all, Supreme Leader. If SL is weakened right now, its because SL has given the President the strongest possible backing. Seems peculiar to take advantage of SL when the latter is in difficulty for unconditionally supporting the President.
Ambassador Holbrooke and Waziristan We had no idea that US Special Envoy Holbrooke's remit included giving Pakistan public advice on how to run the details of its counterinsurgency.
The good Ambassador has announced that he expects Pakistan should wait till the Swat-Dir-Buner refugees are settled before it opens operations against South Waziristan and Baituallah Mesud, Pakistan's most wanted man.
Perhaps the Ambassador is unaware that Pakistan has made it very clear it has no interest in fighting in South Waziristan? Earlier we thought that Pakistan was looking to get Mesud by bombing and giving US information for UAV strikes. But right now the Pakistanis have back-peddled even on that. They are negotiating with Mesud for a promise he will stop attacking Pakistani targets. Naturally Pakistan denies this, but several sources say negotiations are underway.
Or perhaps the Ambassador is very much aware of the realities and is relying on his "head-banger" reputation to force the Pakistanis into action? Perhaps he is being "diplomatic" and not shaming the Pakistanis openly by making the best of the Pakistani refusal and saying, well, it's too early anyway to start a South Waziristan offensive?
Ambassador does realize, doesn't he, that's he's given the Pakistanis the perfect excuse not to move against South Waziristan. It is going to take an endless amount of time to get the refugees resettled. And by the way, the Pakistanis are already saying "well, Swat is not really all that secure" - see http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/pakistan/13+us+wants+idps+settled+before+action+in+waziristan-za-09
If so, he is doomed to fail. He arrived in the region to bang heads in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India. The Indians told Washington that he had better not interfere in any area India considered its internal affairs, which meant Kashmir, so Ambassador Holbrooke's AOR was cut to Pakistan and Afghanistan, with the occasional drive-by shooting comment on Kashmir.
But Ambassador Holbrooke is not going to get the Pakistanis to go against their national interest, and they have said so many times and in so many different ways they are not interested in getting bogged down in a prolonged CI in the North West Frontier that we don't understand why the Ambassador has not gotten it yet.
And from what we hear, if getting the Pakistanis to comply with US wishes is worse than pulling teeth, getting the Afghans to comply is like pulling a hippo's teeth.
When is the US going to realize that if it wants to stay in Afghanistan it had best come up with ways to win that under its control? How much further evidence does US need that the Pakistanis are NOT, and HAVE NOT, from the start been under US control?
The move for alternate supply routes is a good start toward putting back responsibility for winning in Afghanistan where it belongs: in American hands. Now the Americans need to let the Pakistanis be and prepare to boost the Afghans to the point that infiltration can be controlled from west of the border.
And as for Afghanistan, time for the Americans to understand something they have wisely come to understand about Iraq: it's not America's job to care more about Afghanistan than the Afghans care about Afghanistan.

0230 GMT July 27, 2009

Iran Government Rift The internal politics of any country are complex, and readers know at Orbat.com we are not in the habit of claiming to know what's happening when we don't know what's happening. So we want to be clear that whatever is going on Iran, that's just on the surface; and as to what the real scoop is, we have no clue.
Okay. The President appointed a loyalist - related by marriage - to his cabinet. This gentleman had said at some point Iranians were friends with everyone, including Israelis. This didn't bother the President, but it bothered supreme Leader who told President to sack the man.
First the President refused. Then he sacked him when Supreme Leader told the President to get with the program or else, but kicked him upstairs to an even more important job.
Well, apparently Supreme Leader is mad as heck. And another cabinet minister got angry enough that he resigned. And the President got mad at another minister and threatened to fire him.
In Iran, says the New York Times, beyond a point cabinet dismissals trigger a parliamentary vote of confidence, and the President is now in danger of such a vote.
The New York Time's interpretation of this imbroglio is that conservatives - yes, there are people who are even more conservative than the President - sense his position has weakened because of the protests and are moving against him.
Fair enough as far as this goes.
But why on earth did the President appoint a minister without getting clearance from Supreme Leader, and when SL said the man had to be booted, why did the President show defiance a second and a third time? First by appointing him, second by not removing him, and third by giving him an even more important job?
See, Supreme Leader has gone out a limb to support the President during the recent post-election crisis. It was not just support, it was wall-to-wall flat out support. Criticize the Prez, said Supreme Leader, and you criticize me. Since I am God's representative of earth, you'd better be careful. So why is Prez messing up and getting Supreme Leader upset?
We can speculate, but we don't know. If readers have wisdom to share on these strange developments, drop us a line.

0230 GMT July 26, 2009

Iraqis Assert Independence says the media, and this is getting in the way of US troops. The Iraqis are not letting the Americans enter cities without prearranged escort, they won't let them make nighttime raids, and a couple of days ago there was an incident in the town of Abu Gharib where US soldiers were attacked, when they fired back to kill two assailants, the Iraqis said the dead were civilians and wanted to arrest the Americans.
Okay, highly annoying, but you know what? Why did the Americans think they'd be able to control the Iraqis one day longer than the Iraqis were willing to be controlled? Its good the Iraqis feel confident enough to do things their way. If they feel the need to call on the Americans, they will.
In the meanwhile, US troops will have to learn to go the UN peacekeeper route. Just because you believe a threat is imminent, you cannot attack. You can't even fire back unless your life is seriously threatened - and what Americans believe to be threats is quite different from UN rules.
Now, if the Americans say "we can't operate like this," and from the American viewpoint they surely cannot operate like this, there is a simple solution. Pull out. Its time to come home. The leisurely withdrawal the Americans plan, continuing into 2011 with a huge residual force staying indefinitely is not going to work.
Right now the Iraqis are happy to have the US outside the cities. But tomorrow they're going to want the Americans to leave, period.
We've said this before: Americans have achieved everything they came to do. Saddam gone. Democracy established. Iraqis taking responsibility for themselves.
Always to remember that the Iraqis are not backward natives who didn't know how to run their country. They ran their country well by their lights before we got there. The place was falling apart because of the extreme UN sanctions, not because the Iraqis didn't know what was to be done, Was not the kind of place our readers would want to migrate to. But so what? Most of the world is not the sort of place our readers want to migrate to.
Declare success in Iraq, leave. There's plenty of wars to be fought elsewhere if we feel we have to fight wars.
Pakistan presents Balochistan dossier to the Indians detailing Indian interference in that restive province. Fair enough; after all, the Indians have presented a dossier to the Pakistanis detailing the Bombay attack.
There is a slight difference, though. Pakistan told India "if you have evidence of our involvement in Bombay, give us the facts and we'll take it from there." India did not ask Pakistan for any facts on Balochistan. Just a quibble, but it's a fair quibble.
Are the Indians interfering in Balochistan? As far as editor is concerned, they had jolly well better be interfering. India and Pakistan are in a state of war, and if India is not subverting Balochistan, then it's not doing its job.
Editor's problem is nor that India is interfering in Balochistan, or even that the US is up to some things that violate Pakistani sovereignty. Our problem is that India has been interfering for darn nearly 35 years and it has gotten nowhere.
Editor does not berate the Pakistanis for complaining: that is their right. Editor berates the Indians for lack of success.
Fair is fair: Editor has never criticized Pakistan for interfering in Kashmir and now in many parts of India. He has attacked the Indian Government for its failure to respond.

0230 GMT July 25, 2009

Helmand, Afghanistan Two excellent articles from Times London. One takes the broad view, telling what the Americans have achieved in one month and the challenges they face. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article6726869.ece
The other is just a simple story of a patrol, but it captures well the danger and the tedium iof one day in Helmand.
Four points of interes. (a) the Americans say in one month they have dropped exactly one 500-lb bomb; (b) before a Marine Expeditionary Brigade arrived, the British were trying to hold more or less the same area with a single rifle company of 120 men; (c) the MPVs are getting bogged down in the swamps and waters of Helmand Valley; and (d) the Americans are also short of helicopters.
Of course, this is the Marines, who are always short of everything and take a macho pride in being short of everything.
Honduras President Steps Into The Country from Nicaragua and then steps out. Soldiers and police blocked his supporters from proceeding further.
Washington Post noted yesterday that someone pointed out to the head of the OAS that in Venezuela three elected officials - two mayors and a governor - have been prevented by Hugo from taking power. The OAS chief said his organization had no authority to interfere in the internal matters of a country. But isn't he doing just that when he insists the expulsion of the Honduran president from his country is illegal and Honduras will be punished till he is permitted to return?
Camels Overrunning Australian Desert One million camels are wrecking havoc in 3-million square kilometers of Australian desert. The population will double in a decade unless steps are taken now. Australian experts say one camel per 10 square kilometers of desert is acceptable.

0230 GMT July 24, 2009

Trial of Bombay Terror Accused Will Continue despite his surprise "confession" earlier this week, The judge explained to the defendant he faced 86 charges, and he had not pleaded guilty to all, so the trial cannot be ended. The defendant accepted the judge's ruling.
Al-Shabab Crossed Into Kenya, Kidnapped 3 Aid Workers last Saturday. There has been increasing Islamist infiltration into Kenya; flow of illegal weapons has also increased. Kenya Government says it is taking steps to step-up border security, but since tribes have members on both sides of the border, identifying foreigners is not easy.
In our opinion Kenya is no position to stop any serious infiltration. It will have to substantially increase its border forces. This takes time, money, and training. We doubt Kenya has the needed resources.
Taliban Says Swat Leader Alive, Unhurt despite many statements by Pakistan that they believe he has been seriously wounded and is near death. Taliban says he and senior leaders have gone to ground to escape the Government's offensive, and that the Taliban plans its counteroffensive in Swat in the winter.
Taliban says a senior commander to the Swat Taliban chief was killed during the fighting. So far he is the only senior leader confirmed dead.
We understand that Pakistan has to keep producing victory claims, but readers have to understand that even if the Pakistanis are completely sincere in eliminating the Taliban - and they are not, being sincere only in eliminating the anti-Pakistan Taliban - CI operations by their nature take years. It has been clear from the start that the Taliban in Swat, Buner and Dir Districts simply took off when the Pakistan Army moved in. This movement was reported by Long War Journal and ourselves, among others.
Swat Taliban are said to have 5,000 fighters; Pakistan says it has killed 1800 insurgents which is near impossible. Such a large number would prove catastrophic for a force twice as big as the Swat Taliban. If 1800 have died, twice as many have been wounded, and that's 100% casualties. Even the very best military units lose cohesion when casualties cross 66%.
Fighting would not be continuing if Pakistani claims were correct. We also understand the Pakistan Army wants to depart the region ASAP. But this is not going to be achieved by loud and frequent proclamations of victory. It's not going to do Pakistan any good if the anti-Pakistan Taliban strike back in six months - and of course that's going to happen because that's been the pattern of fighting in the region since 2001. And it's the same thing that happened when the Russians were in Afghanistan.
Pakistan should face the inevitable, that it's in a 20-year war - at least - and act accordingly.
US Fuel Efficiency Improves by 3 mpg over 80 years says a new study quoted by the New Scientist. The early 1920s fleet (cars, trucks, motorcycles) had an efficiency of 14 miles per gallon; its now 17 mpg. http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17506-us-vehicle-efficiency-hardly-changed-since-model-t.html
Of course, today's vehicles are a lot more powerful than those of yore. If you could calculate fuel efficiency in terms of per gallon fuel per engine horsepower per mile or something similar, you'd likely see a big improvement.

0230 GMT July 23, 2009

US implies Gulf allies will get N-umbrella if Iran goes nuclear. The US Secretary of State did not mention an N-umbrella, but referred to a defense umbrella. Since, however, the US statement is intended as deterrence, surely the US is not proposing it will react to Iran N-attacks on the Gulf solely with conventional weapons.
The statement has upset the Israelis, and for once on a defense matter we are on their side. The Israelis say they don't like the implication that the US has already accepted a nuclear Iran. We don't either.
At the same time, Orbat.com has to recognize the reality the United States is in a terribly weak position right now. It doesn't have the moral stamina to stand up to likely Iranian retaliation.
We've been over this before, to repeat, we don't think Iran will manage to close Hormuz for any significant period, nor will unleashing its allies against US troops in Iraq and Afghanistan will make any difference to US prospects there. As for Iranian attacks on US allies in the Gulf. Well, if the US can't cope with those then it has no business being in the Gulf. We'd welcome such attacks because it might put some iron in the limp Gulf states.
Nonetheless, not to go all French on our readers, the issue is one of psychological will and not of material strength. The US has the material strength. The psychological will is, well, a four inch square pink lace hanky held, well, limply.
America should have spent the last two years preparing for an Iran showdown particularly by stockpiling oil and other measures. US has spent its time like the summer grasshopper of fable.
Incidentally, when doing their sums on defenses against Iranian missiles, readers should not forget the three Israeli Arrow ABM batteries (we should say the Israeli-American Arrow).
UK might send additional 2,000 troops to Afghanistan says Times London. Okay, let's see it happen and see how long UK can sustain 11,500 troops in theatre as opposed to the 9500 or so it has currently.

0230 GMT July 22, 2009

Pakistan objects to expansion of Afghan War says New York Times. Pakistan has told Washington that the new front opened in Helmand will push more insurgents into Pakistan, this time into Baluchistan, and Pakistan does not have the troops to combat another insurgency. It says withdrawing troops from the India border is out of the question.
Meanwhile, heavy clashes have taken place in areas Pakistan previously said were cleared of Taliban, particularly in Lower Dir District. Turns out some of the Swat Taliban merely shifted to Dir when Swat came under attack. Pakistan is claiming 100 insurgents killed.
None of this is a surprise, both orbat,com and longwarjournal.org reported during the fighting that the Taliban were merely displacing into other areas.
Iran test For some reason we've been unable to connect to debka.com for some months now. A reader tells us Debka says its sources expect the first Iran N-test in six months.
Well, we don't expect it in six months. While on previous occasions when we've written about the Iran N-program we've had our own information that a test was a long way off, lately we have heard nothing one way or the other. Still, years rather than months is more realistic.
Nonetheless, we don't think the date of an Iranian n-test is relevant in any way. Rationally, the Iranians need this program, they are not going to give it up, and the west had better figure out what to do about it - more talking and threatening is not going to achieve anything.
Mali Tuaregs agree to fight Al Qaeda These former desert rebels will join the Algerian and Mali governments in tackling AQ in the Mahgreb, where the latter has been making steady gains. That's the good news.
The bad news is that Al Shabab lot on Somali is showing up on the Kenya border. Kenya is one of the countries considering sending troops to Somalia to prevent a fundamentalist takeover which is is in its last stages. Al Shabab has said it will unleash terror bombings in Nairobi if the Kenyans intervene.
Of course, the Kenyans have to consider if Al Shabab consolidates in Somalia, Kenya is going to come under attack anyway along with everyone else in the region.
The other thing to remember is that just because Al Shabab takes over doesn't mean the fighting will be over. Somalia is riven with clan divides; as long as arms are available, fighting will go on. As for the people of Somalia, well, what can we say. Tough luck? Sorry about that? Hope things get better for you? We'll keep you in our prayers?

0230 GMT July 21, 2009

Somalia Nothing much except the steady deterioration. Looters ransacked UN compounds at Baidoa and Wajid, forcing withdrawal of staff from the first to Kenya. In the second town, staff continues to work. Al-Shabab, the Islamist insurgent group, accused the UN of working against Somali Muslims. It says international organizations should get in touch and they will be given instructions on what rules to follow.
Iran According to the author of a RAND study on Iran, the country is no longer a theocracy but a military security government with a facade of Shia clericism. He says the Revolutionary Guard has become more assertive in every aspect of Iran's life - these are lads who control the rocket forces, by the way - and it runs billions of dollars worth of businesses as well as holds top posts in multiple centers of power. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/21/world/middleeast/21guards.html?_r=1&ref=global-home
The Revolutionary Guard is against reformers and democracy activists.
Indian submarines we'd mentioned India's nuclear submarine plans the other day. Along comes news that the project to build six French Scorpene class conventional boats is now years behind schedule, with the first launching in 2014 - and the price has near doubled, from the original $600-million/boat.
How a 2000-ton conventional boat can cost that much, leave alone a billion plus per copy is beyond our imaginations.
The danger, says Times of India, that by the time the first boat commissions, India's conventional submarine fleet may be down from 16 boats to 5 due to withdrawals.

0230 GMT July 20, 2009

Potential Israeli Strike on Iran N-program There is apparently no shortage of "senior" US officials willing to give exclusive interviews to Israeli papers, on background, of course. The latest such interview was given to the Jerusalem Post, which says the official hoped that Israel would understand a strike would create much trouble for the Americans.
Let's take this at face value, and assume people are not playing games of one sort or another. Since the interview happened at the Pentagon, let's assume the US official speaks for the Government.
First, if Iran develops and deploys N-weapons, it's going to create a lot more trouble for the Americans than will an Israeli strike.
Second, the US has absolutely no ideas on how to stop the Iran N-program. US would do well to remember its own adage: "lead, follow, or get out of the way." We suggest since the US lacks the will to lead, and refuses to follow, it should get out of the way.
Third, why are we debating nuances of when Iran will have an actual N-capability? The reason given is that if there are some years from the capability, and they are according to our sources, then all concerned parties have time to try other solutions. But no one has explained why Iran should, leave alone will, give up its quest for N-weapons. If you were an Iranian, in an environment where your mortal enemy the Americans have surrounded you from all sides, would you give up your N-program? Obviously not. US couldn't get Pakistan to give up its N-program, how is it going to get Iran to comply? When faced with these sort of decisions, strike sooner is better than strike later.
Fourth, just as Iran has an absolute sovereign right to develop N-weapons, Israel has an absolute sovereign right to do everything to stop the Iranians. If the US could invade on a rumor that Saddam had WMDs, how come Israel is not allowed to hit Iran, whose WMD plans are no rumor?
Fifth, the US should be involved in this debate only if it is ready to provide BOTH Iran and Israel with security guarantees. We will destroy anyone who launches a missile at Israel, and we undertake not to attack Iran, nor let Israel do that, in return for controls on Iran's N-program.
Will it work? We don't know. But unless the US is willing to be part of the solution, all it is doing is being part of the problem.
Pakistan is to increase police and paramilitary forces in Buner and Swat Districts. The Army says it will station troops in both districts for 2 years while the local security forces expand.
A brigade cantonment may by constructed in Swat. Since this itself is likely to require at least two years, we assume the Army is planning a permanent presence.
Meanwhile, www.longwarjournal.org reports that the Swat Taliban chief is back on the air on his illegal FM radio, for the first time in months. Security forces have said he is gravely injured and near death, so his going on the air does not bode well.
Buner residents say the Taliban is all over the place and back to erecting checkpoints. They accuse the Army of pushing them out of refugee camps, forcing them to return home though it's not safe.
This may be, but from a security viewpoint having the refugees in camps is dangerous both for the country and for the refugees themselves. Taliban have been recruiting in the camps; and the longer people stay, the great the possibility they will not return home. That creates problems for the areas in which they are being currently accommodated - Pakistan went through this once during the Afghanistan jihad and understandably does not want a repeat.
Chief Pakistan Opposition leaser cleared to stand for election. This is Nawaz Sharif, who was on trial for kidnapping. Concerned that the Army was planning a coup against him in 1999, he would not let General Pervez Musharraf's aircraft return from a foreign visit. With some minutes of fuel left, General Pervez landed after Army troops seized the airport - we think it was at Islamabad. He staged the coup and arrested Nawaz Sharif.
Oddly, the US was happy to pressure Pakistan to dismiss charges of grave nature against Mrs. Bhutto and her husband, so they could contest elections,. but refused to do anything for Sharif because US didn't want him.
He has now been acquitted in the court case.
Before anyone starts talking about how great this is for democracy in Pakistan, having one of the greatest destroyers of democracy as head of state (that would be President Zardari, widower of Mrs. Bhutto) is not the best of ideas; add to that Mr. Sharif, who is no democrat, and you get something Pakistan does not need, more of the same corrupt leadership. Zardari is leader of the feudal Sindhis, and Sharif of the feudal Punjabis. The common man gets left out pretty early.

0230 GMT July 19, 2009

UK defense capability Yesterday we mentioned the British helicopter shortage in Afghanistan. Apparently things are a lot worse than we thought.
Britain has sent 30 helicopters to Afghanistan versus the 50 it maintained in Iraq, which has much better surface communications than Afghanistan. The force back home is being cannibalized to support Afghanistan.
Meanwhile most British infantry battalions at home have skeletonized their third company (British have been using 3-company battalions for a long time now), and have to get fillers from other units. Just 90 MPVs have been sent to Afghanistan, and most are not up to the work.
Meanwhile, because of defense cuts over the last 10 years, UK by fall will have exactly 8 ready air defense fighters, and six warships are all that's available for defense of home waters. The Royal Navy is down to 36,000 sailors; on current plans it will halve by 2020. We have to check, but we seem to recall the RN has about three dozen major warships (including submarines) left so if even that is going to be halved...
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/the-defence-cuts-bleeding-our-forces-dry-1752296.html
India to launch first N-submarine in 10-days says the Times of India. The 6000-ton boat will be given the name INS Arihant at its launch. The reactor is 80-MW. Two more of the same class are planned. It appears from media talk that these three boats will carry long-range cruise missiles and are to be part of the strategic N-deterrent; they will not be SSNs.
For a good open-source analysis of the submarine project, read http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/india/atv.htm
For the attack mission India will use Russian Akulas on lease. Readers may remember that the first boat, the Nerpa, had an accident during sea trials off Vladivostock in November 2008; the reactor was not involved. Reportedly, India will pay two billion dollars for the lease of two boats, with an option to buy. Editor remembers when the entire Indian defense budget was $50-million (1962; Rupees. 4.75 to the dollar); the year of the 1971 War it had gone up to $1.7-billion (Rupees 7.5 to the dollar) on account of the massive increase in the armed forces after the 1962 debacle. So this notion of paying $2-billion for two SSNs is a bit hard to swallow, But then India's defense budget is now $30-billion (Rupees 50 to the dollar).
Heck, Editor remember when India's GDP was $5-billion. Okay, so he's stretching the truth a bit, that was in 1945, and while Editor was precocious, if you had told him India's GDP it would not have made much of an impression.
BTW, Japan's GDP in 1945 was - you've guessed it - $5-billion. But then India went in for socialism, and that cost the country 45 years of growth. It's the poor that lost, but frankly, in India they care even less about the poor than in America. Now India is over $1-trillion GDP, Japan over $3-trillion; of course, India has 9 times as many people as Japan. Still, the Japanese, poor things, are going nowhere. India still has a minimum of 50 years of 7-10% annual GDP growth to go.
Here's a question for readers. Did you know at one time India contributed 40% of world GDP? That's before the industrial revolution. India and China had 80% of the world's population, so obviously they had 80% of the world's GDP, since production was solely what one person could produce with their hands.
The big difference between India and China today is that India has no grudges. It doesn't want anyone kissing its rear end. Indians get very vague when you talk of them as a world power. Sure, they'd like to be a world power, but not so much that they're willing to do much about it. China, however, very much bears grudges. It wants the whole world to kiss its rear end, and it wants to keep one country in particular as a permanent rear end smoocher-on-demand. That country would be the USA. We'd better get into practice now.

0230 GMT July 18, 2009

British helicopter row The British army Chief of Staff visited Afghanistan the other day - in an American helicopter. Government supporters see a stunt. Chief says obviously there was no British helicopter available so he had to take an American one. (We assume it wasn't just one; there's his staff, his communications unit, his guards, and armed helicopter escorts.)
Britain has been plagued by a helicopter shortage in Afghanistan. Apparently, Labor, the people in power, cut funds for helicopters some time back and there have been other problems. Britain - like the Americans - has been using up helicopters at a fearful pace in Afghanistan because (a) surface communications are sparse; (b) surface travel is unsafe.
Generally when governments buy war stuff, they don't plan to actually go to war. So when war does break out, you can use up your equipment 2-5 times faster than you would in peacetime, and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have been going on and on. Brits actually had to buy some new troop carriers from - was it Belgium or Netherlands? There were 6 or 7 of them. Sad.
Your Vietnam Huey - if we remember right - cost $250,000 to begin with and then went to $400,000 in the later stages of the war. That's between $1.5- and $2.5- million in today's money, approximately. The basic UH-60 used to cost $7-million, we assume its about twice that now. In Vietnam we were spending 9% of GDP on defense, so you could stamp out stuff like Hueys like Girl Scout cookies - and of course the big and long production runs drastically reduce price. Now we're spending 4%, and each time a helicopter is delivered to the military its almost with the same fanfare as a destroyer was in World War 2.
Okay, so we exaggerate, but not by much. For example, NATO has ordered two - count 'em - two C-17s, and the US is throwing in a third as its contribution to a NATO heavy lift force, and the number of articles being written about this piddling force of 3 would cover football fields. US/Canada/Europe have a GDP of about $30-trillion, by the way.
Amplification and correction to our rant yesterday. Washington Post says 160,000 houses have been saved, which is even more pathetic than we thought, considering how many millions have lost or are losing their houses.
The trade deficit for 2009 is run at an annual rate of $350, which is well below last year's - $678-billion, and compares to 2007's $751-billion which should give anyone the creeps.
As with all economic figures there are a dozen ifs and buts and nuts: the above is the current account deficit.
But to add to the general cheer The new Business Week - which we're still reading - backs a point we made in our rant. It says America has outsourced what it thought was its low-end manufacturing capacity. Actually, so much manufacturing has gone offshore that we can't manufacture much high-tech stuff either, as many items in the supply chain are no longer made here.
Bright idea: can we outsource US economists and top management and put these parasites on $400/week unemployment, no access to their huge bank accounts or consultancy? We're told the Indians have top flight economists and managers in such large numbers that they sort of resemble a Plains buffalo herd when the settlers first got here. They'll do twice the work for a tenth the price.
Business Week also says that the Chinese are starting to buy companies instead of US Treasuries. American financiers are highly chuffed because they think they're the only ones with the financial expertise to help the Chinese buy western firms. No one is bothered what is left of American non-financial corporations is going to be fodder for the Chinese.
Can we tell the hotshot financiers something? The Chinese didn't accumulate that money by being stupid. They'll use you to buy your patrimony, watch carefully how you do it, and then kick you out and bring in Chinese. They'll always need doormen and cleaning crews.
We told Orbat.com readers a couple of years back: we're all going to be working for the Chinese. Get used to it.
By the way we learn that the Chinese Government just shows up in a town and identifies the skills that are short in the rapidly developing parts of the country. Then it gives you a notice to up and go. If you don't, your family gets harassed and fined till you go.
Doesn't it bother American corporations to make their obscene profits working through China when this is what passes for worker rights in China?
You betcha it bothers them - not.

0230 GMT July 17, 2009

Bailout Flymike sends an article from Bloomsberg (March 31, 2009 "Financial Rescue Nears GDP as Pledges Top $12.8 Trillion (Update1)" by Bob Ivry and Mark Pittman that sums up the US Government's bail out commitments over the last 20-months. We suggest you sit down before reading this.
US GDP in 2008 was $14.2-trllion. Government has committed, spent, or lent $12.8-trillion, of which $4.2-trillion has been distributed.
What do you and I as common people get out of this? Well, Government and the trough-feeders say the global financial system would have collapsed without this money and we'd have been in a depression.
Here is the latest summary of what we read about the economy. It is recovering quicker than expected in terms of GDP. But unemployment will remain at 10% for possibly five more years. When employment does recover, 6% will be the new floor below which unemployment can be pushed, versus the 4% that was acceptable before.
Since the true unemployment is more like 16%, this means one in six Americans have no jobs and may not for the next five years, when the true rate may fall to one in eight - assuming we don't have another few million illegals by then.
People are still losing their homes because the banks are making is as hard as possible to refinance, even though they were given money by the Government for that purpose. Small business cannot get loans, even though the idea of the bailouts was to preserve liquidity. The States are just starting to come to terms with the economic crisis, and the layoffs have just begun. And people who are finding jobs are earning less than before.
Okay, in the meanwhile, JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs are getting ready to declare billions in bonuses - Goldman will be declaring an average of $900,000 per employee, and we've still got half the year to go. The moneybags are saying if they don't declare bonuses etc. they will lose talent and their investors will take them to court. So, they have to hand over obscene sums of money just to survive.
Look, my friends, if you tell me America is a free country, I will agree - its free for the rich to get richer, and free for the rich to shaft everyone else. It just isn't the poor that are seeing a generation of meager gains wiped out - it's the middle class, and as nearly as I can tell, it's all the way up to $100,000/annual income.
But if you tell me it's a just country, the maybe it's not just me needs a mental checkup, it's almost the whole country. and please, don't make me barf by telling me how the Democrats care for you and me and the Republicans don't. If Americans haven't figured out what's happening to them has NOTHING to do with politics, it's plain and simple a war of the rich against everyone else, then frankly, Americans have what's coming to them.
What's coming, (a) Infrastructure collapse - with the economy looking the way it is for the next five years, maybe more, we can forget about the upgrade for infrastructure this country so desperately needs to stay competitive - heck, forget about competitive, to function.
(b) Higher education collapse - America, which used to be first in the world for percentage of population graduating from college has now fallen to tenth and the reason is that the cost of education keeps rising faster than income so people can't afford college.
(c) School education - please don't even think of it. The so-called No Child Left Behind standards are so pathetically low that I am sick of foreigners laughing at America's education pretensions, and since I am a school teacher, I get more than my fair share of hoots and derision.
(d) The National accounts - may I suggest the same advice as we got as children during the atomic attack drills: get under your desk, put your head between your knees, and kiss your ass goodbye. If anyone thinks that the same rich that put us where we are have the least interest in balancing budgets, leave alone paying down debts, then all I can say is when it comes to mind control no one, but no one, can come close to the Americans. When communism flourished, people knew they were being robbed blind, and if they did something about it, they'd be killed. They were under no illusions. The Great American People continue with their illusions.
(e) GWOT - if anyone thinks we're winning, they need to start checking what the government is putting in our beer and our water.
(f) People going to bed hungry - more in the US than in the rest of the industrialized world put together. Health care - don't bring it up, its too ugly.
People, I leave you with one thought. When the prosperity of a country depends on its people spending to get ever deeper into debt, and on borrowing money from China, don't you think something is wrong? Every day I read or hear recovery is being hampered because people - curse and darn them, kick their sorry behinds, how dare they - are trying to save money instead of spending - which means spending more than they have, because what Americans call saving - 3, 4, 6% of income is absolutely pathetic compared to what an Indian or a Chinese thinks is saving - 25%-35% of income.
Oh yes, did I mention - looks like we're going to lose our lead in alternative energy technology to India and China. See, we don't have the money for the big investments required to stay ahead. India and China do. By the way, eat your heart out: Germany is operationalizing its first carbon capture coal plant. What are we doing? And also by the way, the Germans are saying, "hey, this technology is not the answer, it's simple something to buy us time while we develop the technology that is the answer." In other words, they are already thinking ahead, and we can't even get our carbon capture thing together.
Meanwhile, back in the Capital of the Free World, we don't have the money to send the subway extension to Dulles IAP underground through Tyson's Corner in Virginia. This giant retail and commercial s going to be cut right through by an elevated heavy rail transit line - seems it's a matter of $700-million too much, and to heck with the damage to the concept of a civilized urban center this will do for the next 50 years,
Oh yes - the trade deficit is down because we can't afford to buy. So now we're hemorrhaging only half-a-trillion dollars a year on the balance of payments instead of $6-700-billion.
Do I need to go on?

0230 GMT July 16, 2009

In case you've been wondering about the South Waziristan offensive...Actually we're pretty sure you haven't been wondering about it since presumably, unlike Editor, you have a life, but we're going to tell you anyway.
When Pakistan opened an offensive to retake Buner, Shangla, and Dir Districts in the NWFP, we among others noted that unless Pakistan also went into the tribal agencies which border Afghanistan. this wasn't going to help the US any.
Despite US pressure Pakistan said it wasn't going into the tribal agencies. The it said it would. Then it spent weeks futzing around and said it was setting the stage by using air, helicopter, and artillery attacks as it prepared for the ground operation.
Okay, so we were very surprised Pakistan said it would clean up South Waziristan because to do that it would have to attack its own Taliban, the ones that are fighting for themselves and Pakistan in Afghanistan. So we said: hokay, they're in South Wazoo, but that is only of the tribal agencies that needs cleaning up. We remain skeptical that Pakistan had suddenly reversed years of strategic policy, particularly after refusing to accommodate the US for 8 years. But in this game, you have to go by the evidence, not by your prejudices.
Then the North Wazoo Taliban told Pakistan the ceasefire was off, they were going to side with the Mesud who was creating all the trouble. The Pakistanis responded by saying sorry about that, but they were going to continue observing the agreement. This we thought tres estrange, as the French say. Bit it was clear Pakistan was not going to further than South Waziristan
Now to get to the point The reason the South Waziristan ground offensive has not started is there is going to be no ground offensive. Pakistan is out to kill the Mesud, for all the havoc he has created for the Pakistanis, nothing more, and the US can go suck its thumb or whatever.
We learn this from Bill Roggio of www.longwarjournal.org He first heard about it in the Globe and Mail, then got in touch with people at CENTCOM, and they said the newspaper story was correct. Kill Mesud; no ground offensive.
Now you have to see if all the Pakistanis is kill Mesud, a venture in which the US is cooperating, having launched 8 strikes against the fellow in the past few weeks, this is going to help the Americans less than a dog's belch in the Afghan high desert.
For one thing, his Taliban, which together with forces belonging to his junior commanders total up to 50,000, will be intact. Mr. Roggio says there are plenty of able subordinates to take over.
The Americans are very fond of their decapitation strategy, it satisfies their need for urgent action. The reality is no commander is indispensable. The Mesud is obviously not holding sway over near 50,000 fighters all by his own some lonesome, that is a whacking great number of troops. A point Mr. Roggio has repeatedly sought to make is the Taliban in Pakistan are not a gathering of rabbles, but have a military organization of companies, battalions, and brigades.
Some of these lads have been fighting since they were 12 years old, and lets just say they have a wee bit of experience. In fact, they have whacking great more experience than American commanders. If something were to happen to the top American commander in Afghanistan, how long would it hamper the relatively battle inexperienced Americans in their war?
Try 30 seconds. So when you have loads of highly experienced commanders on the Taliban side, how long is it going to take them to recover? A few days, a few weeks, you want to be really pessimistic, a few months.
Which is not to say that decapitation does not have its place. Its best done in the middle of a battle, when you take out an entire HQ and act very quickly to get inside the enemy's ODA cycle, or whatever name they're calling it nowdays. (Observation, Decision, Action.) You don't do a decapitation and then wait till another target presents itself.
Also before we forget, there's someone else to help the Taliban in case the latter lose a commander or two. That's our best buddies the Pakistanis. They have hundreds of officers who have been fighting with the Taliban for donkeys years.
We are wondering, of course, how the Pakistanis are going to continue milking the US for aid when they are blatantly defying the Americans. But then, haven't they successfully done this for almost 8-years? Who will you bet on, the Pakistanis or the Americans? It would be foolish to bet against the Pakistanis, solely because US had no options except the Pakistanis, and they still have no options but the Pakistanis. As far as the Pakistanis are concerned, if and when they get the Mesud, they're done. They've rolled back the Taliban from the settled districts.
(Except they haven't really, but how many complications can readers take before they too get severe headaches and lose interest in the subject for good.)

0230 GMT July 15, 2009

US Navy Shipboard Anti-Vessel Laser will be tested 12-18 months from now, says Aviation Week & Space Technology. The laser is to be used against small boat threats. Meanwhile, US Army plans to test a truck-mounted laser against battlefield rockets and artillery shells.
We have no clue why this is all taking so long. We thought by now the US would be operationally deploying laser weapons.
Raytheon is proposing to upgrade the land-attack Tomahawk to an anti-ship version with a 1500-km range and 454-kg warhead for use against large warships. Currently the longest-range US shi-to-ship missile is the Extended Range Harpoon, with about 250-km range and 227-kg warhead.
Pakistan Anti-Taliban Militia Scores Rare Success killing 23 insurgents in Mohmand Agency. Bill Roggio says that while the Government has encouraged formation of several anti-Taliban militias, most have taken a beating from the insurgents. He quotes a Pakistan source to say the Dir militia, formed in the wake of a Taliban attack on a Dir District mosque that killed 40, is "running out of steam". http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2009/07/tribal_force_kills_2.php
Mexico Thirty people including a mayor and 12 Federal police officers have been killed in drug related violence in the last 24 hours.
US human rights organizations want to cut aid to Mexico for the counter drug war because the security forces including the Army have been torturing civilians and suspects. We respect and understand HR groups' concern. We wish they would be a bit more realistic and understand the brutality of this war and the ferocity with which the narcos kill security personnel and civilians has frayed everyone's nerves. Cutting aid to Mexico may warm some hearts, but how does it help Mexico fight the war?
Of course, you can say "legalize drugs and stop the war on drugs because its gone on for four decades and has failed". But short of taking that position, you have to remember Mexican security forces are not fighting for hearts and minds. They're trying to get information from civilians whose lives are either deeply intertwined with the narcos or who are just too frightened to cooperate. Police and civic officials are being specifically targeted in an all-too-successful campaign to cripple law enforcement. That's why the Army has been called in; one estimate we heard was 35,000 troops are involved.
The Army cannot do police work, doesn't matter if its the Mexican or the American. Armies are simply not trained for this.
As with any war, civilians take the brunt of the violence from both sides. This happened as much in the "Just War", WW2, as it happened in Second Indochina and Iraq. Americans were as guilty of anyone else of targeting civilians. We wish they hadn't, and we're referring specifically to the Combined Bomber Offensive in Europe and the horrendous air war against Japan.
But its very, very hard to tell your public: "Sorry, more of your boys are going to killed because we have to be careful to spare civilians." In both Japan and Germany many of those civilians were directly part of the war effort because they produced weapons and goods for the military. One of the many reasons the Americans repeatedly firebombed Japanese cities was that industrial production was scattered into civilian neighborhoods, so what was to be done?
In Mexico, there is a very great danger our southern neighbor will become completely destabilized by the narcos, who have been gaining in power, and who spare no one. Mexico is at war; HR groups need to appreciate this.

0230 GMT July 14, 2009

Afghanistan

Once in a while its a good idea to sit down and revaluate - from the start - a mission: what is it we are doing and why? The British have been asking this question of late, and with the news of the growing controversy between the President's National Security Advisor and the Afghanistan field commanders on the adequacy of troops, perhaps we too should ask questions.
We went into Afghanistan to get Osama. Remember, horrible as the Taliban were, we had no national security quarrel with them. The trouble started when we asked Kabul to hand him over, and Kabul said no.
So we went for the man, he escaped. We found we had removed the Taliban from power en passant; of a sudden our mission became keeping them from power.
The non-Taliban people emerged. Did we leave? Nope. We decided we had to get rid of the warlords.
Had anyone mentioned getting rid of the warlords before we went in? Nope.
So we squashed the warlords, and then discovered our boy Hamid was too weak to rule Afghanistan. Understandable, as our boy had no standing whatsoever in the land. So we installed him as our viceroy and now the mission became creating a working government for Afghanistan.
Was this on the agenda at any time before we went in? No.
So we spent a few years building schools and clinics and roads, and laying the foundation of a new Afghan Army and police. Then we noticed the Taliban had come back into the countryside.
Truthfully, they never left. Its just that with the main cities reasonable secure, we suddenly decided we had to secure the countryside too.
Uh oh and double uh oh. No Kabul government has ever controlled anything but the countryside surrounding the big cities, but that did not give us pause.
As part of getting rid of the Taliban in the countryside, we did two huge mission expansions without giving the matter much thought. First, we decided we had to eradicate the opium which no one had ever tried to do - the Taliban " success" at eliminating opium when it was in power is another story to be told another time. For that we had to expand security into the vast countryside. We decided also we had to fight the Taliban inside Pakistan, big time, and not in fits and starts as we had been doing in previous years.
Well, both programs were a big disaster. In Pakistan it looked the Taliban was going the Pakistan government out; as for the opium, we simply lacked the resources to do anything about it.
With Iraq winding down, suddenly the military saw the prospect of additional troops, so a huge alarm began to be tolled: if we don't boost our forces in Afghanistan, we are going to be driven out of the country. A crisis was created, more troops were poured in.
Well, no sooner did the troops start arriving than the field commanders start saying: "The Mini Surge will not suffice, we need more."
At this point General Jim Jones told the field commanders that this was not kosher. Possibly he reminded them of Second Indochina, where the field commanders kept asking for more troops - and getting them - and it was only when General Westmoreland totally blew it by asking for 235,000 on top of the 550,000 in country (750,000 in the theatre) that the Administration said, "wait a mo', what exactly are we doing and why?" No one seemed to have good answers to the questions, and the Tet Offensive (which was a military failure, by the way) just made the generals look pathetic. The writing was writ large on the wall and President Johnson said "No," and announced he would not run for another term.
Now look people. Obviously there are insufficient troops and will be even after the surge. Helmand itself needs a robust division, not two battalions. But since when did securing Helmand become the objective? And now people are looking at all the other provinces in the South and the East. After another 4-5 divisions are thrown in, people will suddenly realize the situation in the west is horrible - because Iran will react to the huge influx of US troops by stepping up the low-level insurgency in that region, and then someone will point out: "Guys, the north is not in Government control either."
So if you are going to keep defining the mission up, you're going to need ten divisions to secure the place. Is the place going to be secure?
Here's the odd thing: by traditional Afghan standards, the US/Allies had secured Afghanistan by 2005. Securing Afghanistan means that the Ring Road should be reasonably safe during the day, and that the government's writ runs - sort of - in the main cities. No regional leader should be able to threaten the Kabul government, and Kabul itself should be safe.
But now what we are talking about is creating and sustaining a state built on western notions of stability and security.
Can we do it? Sure we can. Prepare to put in another 7-8 divisions, prepare to boost further to counter the inevitable enemy counteraction, flog the Afghans till they have an efficient army of half-a-million - or a million because when you reach one target you inevitably find the threat has changed, be prepared to spent $20-billion a month etc etc etc, and the job is done. Sort of.
But should we do it? This is less clear because the GWOT is, not to put too fine a point on it, a Global War. If we are going to fight the enemy on all fronts using standard CI strategy, then lets start working on expanding the defense budget to 10% of GDP - it averaged about 9% during Vietnam, and start building a force of 40 divisions.
Can we do it? Of course. The country has a $14-trillion GDP and a 300-million population. of course we can spend 10% GDP on defense and field 40 divisions. To keep the budget balanced and provide the governmental services we now expect as a matter of right, likely government will have to take 33% of the GDP versus the 20% or so now (using deficit financing is not a viable long-term option). If we recall our figures right, during World War II, government spending reached 43% of GDP. We won that one, in case anyone needs reminding.
If 33% of the GDP is to go to the Government and the budget has to be balanced, and future commitments met, no economists we, but its probable taxes will have to rise by more than 50%
So: should we do it?
Editor's personal position? Yes, we should do it.
Editor's recommendation? None, because the answer is above his pay grade. all he can do is point out: either you adjust your means to your ends, or you adjust your ends to your means. We are doing neither. Which is why any betting person should be betting we are going to fail in the GWOT.

0230 GMT July 13, 2009

Helmand, Afghanistan

We've been ranting about the US/Allied failure to train enough Afghan troops and police to make a difference in this war.
But after a brief chat will Bill Roggio of www.longwarjournal.org, we have to admit that while our rant is justified, there is another side to this matter.
Mr. Roggio said that the low number of Afghan troops in the operation tells us all we need to know about the Afghan attitude to the war.
We had noted in the blog the pathetically low number of Afghan troops, less than 600, in this operation, and we didn't see why the Afghans could not have committed more troops.
Yesterday's Washington Post had a story which neatly made Mr. Roggio's point. The story emphasizes, as we have been doing, that the Marines have been very realistic about their operation and have repeatedly said if they don't provide long-term security, they are not going to win. They also have been utilizing tactics that expose them to some greater degree of risk, but keep down civil casualties.
Well, in line with both these objectives - minimizing problems with the civilians and building long-term security, the Marine Expeditionary Brigade commander apparently made an all out push to get more Afghan troops involved. He event went to Kabul to talk to the high command. Lot's of "we'll think on it" and no troops.
Eventually he got so fed up he sent three of his colonels to meet the Afghan 3-star who commands the Kabul corps. They begged for just 30 (thirty) Afghan troops to attach to the brigade - the few hundred that joined the operation are protecting the Helmand border with Pakistan. The promised they'd train the Afghans to become commandos.
The corps commander's reaction? "Forget it."
We want to make clear this is not only very serious, it is a complete and utter dereliction of duty by the Afghan corps commander. He needs to be relieved and court-martialed. And when he is on trial, we need answers. Such as, on whose authority did he refuse even just 30 men from his corps, which has three brigades and on which attention, money, and resources have been lavished by the US/Allies for years? Was this his own idea? if so, bust him to private and send him on frontier duty. Was he acting on the authority of the government? Then it is time to read the government the riot act.
The government has also refused the MEB CO permission to create local militias. This is something we understand, because this is a very complex matter in the highly fractured politics of ethnicity in Afghanistan.
We also need answers to another question: why is a one-star American having to go to Kabul to beg for the equivalent of an Afghan platoon? Why have not the senior US commanders, and the senior political advisors, told the Afghan government before this campaign was launched: you are going to provide 3000 troops from the 85,000 trained troops you have. Personally, we'd have insisted on two brigades, not one, but okay, we aren't on the scene and there may be a lot we don't know.
We feel the MEB commander is being let down both by his own side and the Afghans. We feel there has to be accountability: Americans and the Allies are fighting, and vast amounts of money are being spent. Its not as if those troops arent needed elsewhere and that America has money to burn. The British, by the way, have lost 15 soldiers in the last 10 days in this operation. The people of US/Allies have a right to know: what's going on here?

A Minor Episode of Realness in Helmand

A big complaint of ours is that the American media simply has no knack for war reporting, something the Brits really excel at. In yesterday's Washington Post there was an exception, in that the WaPo correspondent nicely captured the reality of war.
A marine captain who is settling down with his unit to hold a town in the Helmand Valley went over to the local police chief, to say Chiefy needs to get his men out of the police station and patrolling the roads.
"You give me no unforms," said Chiefy (paraphrase).
"I've been living in the same clothes for 15 days", says the Marine Captain.
"So what should I fight the Taliban with, my bare arms?" says Chiefy sarcastically.
"We're giving you weapons as we capture them from the Taliban," says the Marine captain.
Chiefy: "Yeah, right, you've given me one AK".
Marine Captain: "We need to kill more Taliban."
Next thing, says WaPo, there is a huge thump outside and everyone rushes out. Chiefy is in a "You want us to patrol without weapons? We'll show you what patrolling is" kind of mood. Turns out his men have brought down the ancient 12.7mm heavy machine gun where its been rusting on top of a roof, and the men are now hauling this off to set up a checkpoint. Marine Captain dryly says: "This is his turf, I can't tell him what to do."
This is a positively hilarious story, and it tells you what happens in the field - as opposed to what people far away think happens. But hilarity aside, aren't you tempted to ask: "Say what? This operation has been launched, and there's no provision to equip the police properly, when the police have to be the backbone of the security situation?" And aren't you tempted to ask: "Before the Marines got there, the station didn't have even one AK or uniforms, going on 8 years into this war?"
Good questions. Who's going to answer them for all of us? Need you wonder why we're not winning?

0230 GMT July 12, 2009

Somalia

Islamists have executed seven people for being Christians.
Can the multiculturalists explain to us, once again, because we are so stupid that we don't get it, how it's wrong for us to consider ourselves at war with fundamentalist Islam, and how all these fundas are simply misunderstood?
We say again: the real test of the decadence is when people are killing you, and you still refuse to understand you are at war, and insist that your killers are merely misunderstood.
The Editor's position is simple: Muslims the world over need to denounce the fundamentalists and show us you are willing to fight them. If you try and make a moral equivalence between the fundamentalists and us, you are against us.
Yes, Muslims and Christians fought for centuries as each used religion as the reason for conquest. But: Earth calling Muslims: as far as the west is concerned, it was all done with by the 16th Century. The west fought the Ottoman Empire in World War I not because it was Christian and the Ottomans were Muslim, but because the Ottomans lined up with the Germans. Who in case someone has missed the point, were Christians.
For Muslims to blame the West for the humiliations they faced after the fall of the Ottoman Empire is patently La La Land stuff. The victors get to set the terms, the losers have to lump it.
Yes, as a Third Worlder, Editor is sensitive to the humiliations the Palestinians have faced because of Israel's creation. So while we're bashing the Israelis, would the Arabs like to tell us how much they have helped the Palestinians? Muslims say the Israelis make Palestinians live in a ghetto. Quite right. And the Arabs do not? The Arabs, particularly the Egyptians, are as responsible as the Israelis for suppressing the Palestinians. The Israelis do it at least because they want room to live. The Arabs do it because they have used the Israeli repression as an excuse to repress their own people for six decades.
When Israel was busy blowing up Gaza in last year's war, weren't you truly amazed at how the Arabs fought Israel? Not. The Arabs couldn't even muster up the energy for proper condemnations.
And what was the Muslim world doing when the Serbs and other Christians were busy slaughtering Muslims in the Balkans? Do Muslims even understand it was the Christian West that saved the Muslims, that had the Christian west not intervened, likely a couple of million Muslims would have ended up dead and the rest pushed out of the Balkans.
And what do Christians get in return? All across the Mideast they are persecuted and killed simply for being Christian. Look at Pakistan, Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and for heaven's sakes, look at Iraq. We went to liberate Iraq from Saddam, and the amazing irony is that the Christians were fsafer under him than they were under us. Yes, it was the United States that was running Iraq when the ethnic cleansing of Christians from Iraq took place.
It was on America's watch that a great crime against humanity was perpetrated in Iraq, and please do tell, what did the US Government, the US Congress, the US media, and America's churches do to stop this crime?
This is what we mean when we say the West is decadent. Evolution says when you are decadent, you need to get wiped out. We are staring to think the West really does need to get wiped out. And we say this not from an Islamic viewpoint, but more akin to the viewpoint of Russians East of the Urals, who mistrusted western civilization as corrupting and destructive.
Western civilization has given us almost everything that makes life worth living in the Year of our Lord 2009: democracy, equal right for all, a productive economic system that has led to standards of living unthinkable even fifty years ago, leave alone a hundred years ago, etc. etc. etc.
But what Americans have to understand is: it's getting time that we ourselves began the process of revitalizing our culture, society, and country. If we don't, and if we stand around looking languid and waving our hands condescendingly , saying, "My man, we are simply too noble and intelligent to think in terms of religion, nation, and culture, how are we better than anyone else who have different ways?", you know what the result is going to be? The people who do believe in the superiority of their religion and their culture are going to kill us.
Truth in reporting disclosure: Editor is not a Christian. He is a pantheist, and perfectly comfortable worshiping at anyone's place of worship. He is happy to learn about anyone's religion and to understand it from their viewpoint. Personally, he inclines to God in purely scientific/technological terms, as the creator of this universe.
Because he is a pantheist, he acutely understands the need to fight, and to kill, anyone who says: "My religion is so superior I have to kill you."
A contradiction? Not at all. Freedom is not free.

0230 GMT July 11, 2009

Another day of angst, where there is so little real news we wonder what is the purpose of the update.

T. Boone Pickens Freezes Giant Wind Farm because the recession is affecting financing for all aspects of the 4-Gigawatt project.
Now, very roughly, that is 0.4% of total US installed electrical generating capability. So it's not as if shortages are going to result down the line. What's sad is that the wind farm could have kept 4 x 1000-Megawatt coal-fired plants from being built; more important, it would have been provided practical experience in mega wind projects.
Mr. Pickens has already contracted some billions worth of turbines; he is now scrambling to see them sold to other projects.
Incidentally, we are against coal not for the global warming thing, but because America still permits open-top mountain mining, which has destroyed huge swaths of the Appalachians including old forest, and fouled countless streams. Yes, the land does recover after some decades. But the old forest is gone, communities are destroyed, and when so many alternatives exist, why inflict this extreme brutality on the land. The people of Appalachia are amongst the poorest Americans, and they are caught in a true colonial situation: for the sake of making a living today, they are forced to collude with companies who make their profit, impoverish their habit, and move on to the next mountain.
Helmand, Afghanistan We've been told the Brits are pretty upset at the current media focus on the ongoing operation that makes it look like an all-American show.
Turns out the Brits and allies have got 3,000 troops in the game to the Americans' 4,000. So the Brits do have some reason to grouse.
Meanwhile British casualties have passed the Iraq total, and everyone is tense and starting to put blame around. We are concerned with the thesis that the Brits have not committed enough resources and this is hurting the war effort.
Indeed they have not, and indeed it is. Local commanders wanted two more battlegroups to at least control Lakshar Gar, the capital of Helmand, and approaches.
But two points here. First, no one is committing sufficient resources, not even the Americans. why single out the Brits, especially when this isn't even really their war? Second, people, if you commit more troops and operate more aggressively, your losses are going to go up. That's not very complicated, is it?
Meanwhile, the British Army is parking heavy equipment and reequipping units with lighter stuff to increase the pool of units for Afghanistan. Its a bit hard to tell from the outside, but it looks like at least one Challenger MBT tank regiment - of which there are hardly any left to begin with - is to convert to light tracked reconnaissance vehicles, and the equivalent of two regiments of self-propelled medium and air defense artillery is to shift to light 105mm guns.
The British are also preparing to deploy a division HQ (6th) to Afghanistan to control the two full-strength brigades they will have by year's end.
Please note the British are managing to keep their 6-7 month deployments down to give units 24 months before pushing off again. This is a more humane and reasonably pace than the Americans, who seem to be doing 14-15 months on and 12 off. Again, this is not really Britain's war, and no one should expect them to make the same sacrifices as the Americans.
BTW, we need to once again firmly say that the Government of the United States is full of the stinky stuff. What they're asking of the troops is absolutely, completely, totally unfair. And to top it all, even the plan to add six - wow!, count 'em - six weak brigades for the GWOT has been halved to three brigades. The rest of the enhanced brigade count you see is playing around with numbers: the fourth brigade in each division comes from existing resources.
Government is very proudly saying: but we now have 12 battalions per division and 8 of the battalions have four companies each. You know what? We want the government to get its elbow out of its wazoo so some airflow can take place and maybe Government's brain will start functioning a bit, if it hasn't atrophied beyond recovery.
Before the army went to its Army XXI or Army of Excellence or whatever pathetic name someone thought up to hide the truth, that we were getting weaker on the ground even as commitments started rising, each division had 11 battalions with four companies each, or 44 companies. The new division's 12 battalions have the equivalent of 40 companies - the so called RSTA battalion is actually the strength of two Humvee mounted companies. And the number of divisions has dropped to ten, and by the way, they've also just wiped out the 15 powerful Guard separate brigades and eliminated 7th and 24th Division HQs, which took six of the high-readiness separate Guard brigades and were a small, but very useful, increment to strength in an emergency.
Meantime, if you want to see the tenor of what's going on, try and count the number of new "brigades" in combat support and combat service support. You've now got artillery "brigades" with 3-4 battalions on mobilization, which is barely a group. A brigade had several groups. When you start inflating names to make yourself sound more powerful or more important, that's one sign that you've decided on a race to the bottom.
Latin American armies are the ones supposed to play these games, not the US Army. And ironically, the Latins are coming to their sense and starting to downsize their names.
BTW, the Russian reorganization to brigades - which much, much better reflects the reality of their true strength rather than the huge numbers of armies and divisions they maintained, is just about complete. Its a sign the Russians have decided to stop posturing, and build an army that works,

0230 GMT July 10, 2009

AQ In the Mahgreb Gaining strength says New York Time. In case you've been feeling irrationally exuberant, and need to be brought back to earth, read http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/10/world/africa/10terror.html?_r=1&ref=world
Kurds Set To Approve New Constitution says New York Times. That the north was/is headed for separation from the rest of Iraq can come as news only if you have spent the last few years on Titan, or in suspended animation on Earth. Everyone and her sister has known separation was in the cards, and that just as America kept Kurdistan separate and safe from Saddam, only America was keeping Kurdistan in Iraq post 2003. The Americans are leaving, so the inevitable is happening. The thing is the Kurds have a ton and a half of oil - so does most of Iraq except the Sunni west. So they've been making their own deals with people.
They need Turkey's help in getting the oil out of the country if the Government doesn't let them use Basra. But wait, you see, aren't the Kurds at complete loggerheads with the Turks on the question of a Free Kurdistan or whatever?
You're right, they are. But money has its own logic. Right now the Kurds would rather get rich by cooperating with the Turks then fight with the Turks and stay poor for the sake of their brethren in Turkey.
So its nothing complicated. Moreover, everyone would be better off if Iraq did split: it's an artificial conglomerate of three separate countries that has been forcibly kept together first by the Ottomans, then by the British, then by Saddam, then by the Americans. If the country split, the Americans would get their permanent base in Iraq because only the Americans can protect the Sunnis. There are money issues - the four Sunni provinces are oil poor. But there may be two tons and a half of natural gas, and for the sake of peace, the Shias and Kurds may well be willing to hand over some fraction of their oil revenues.
Iraq has 115-billon barrels of oil, second only to Saudi. Or so people say. Actually, most of Iraq has not been explored. It may turn out Iraq has more oil than Saudi. The only way to exploit the oil if through internal peace. If that means divorce, then its better to divorce.
BTW, the Iraqis held their first big auction for oil rights, and no one came to the party. Except for one company, the rest thought the instability in Iraq far outweighed the minimum bids set by the Government, so they said thanks, but no thanks.
We hope one day Americans will realize we did not go to war with Iraq for the oil. At one time we'd worked out the economics for this blog, and America came out a big fat loser in the money department. Now its even more of a loser because the Iraqis, being xenophobic, do NOT want the Americans dominating the oil industry.

0230 GMT July 9, 2009

NWFP Pakistan's Interior Minister says Buner and Swat are secure and refugees can start returning. Pakistan's military spokesperson says operations in Buner and Swat are in their last phase.
The interesting thing about these different messages is that both gentlemen spoke standing shoulder to shoulder on the same podium.
Now, no one expects Pakistan to be as "sophisticated" as the United States when it comes to The Message. No one can match the US in this "skill". The reason for the Austin Powers quotes is that what we are saying is no one is as good as the Americans when it comes to legal lying.
At the same time, does it take much coordination for two people who are to speak at a joint conference to say the same thing?
UAV Strikes US is attacking the Taliban left, right, and center in South Waziristan. It's hard to escape the thought since Baituallah Mesud is now Public Enemy Number One, the Pakistanis are actually cooperating with the Americans instead of with the Taliban. Notice we don't say "and with AQ", because, honestly, we don't know that Pakistan helps AQ. These fellows are intruders with their own agenda. We don't think Pakistan goes running to the US every time it gets intel on AQ. But we don't think Pakistan is double-dealing the US on AQ.
Night Letters Just in case people in North Wazoo haven't got the message that the Taliban is on the outs with the Government and is backing Mesud in his war against the Pakistan state - at least insofar South Wazoo is concerned, the Taliban has been busy sending night letters to the North Wazoo elders.
The letters say that if the Taliban see any sign of a peace jirga, the participants are dead meat. In other words, help the Government if you don't care about living.
What's interesting is that the North Wazoo Taliban are reserving the right to kill you if you gather in groups of five or more. That's the same number the Government reserves the right to open fire on sight after Section 144 is declared. This section is a legacy of colonial days in the subcontinent where when trouble impended the district authorities could take preemptive action. The theory was better to kill a few people on sight for violating orders than deal with wholesale rioting. Of course, S144 prohibits gathering of five or more; if the Government wants - and it usually does want in less than extreme circumstances - it will simply arrest you. The shoot to kill order is separate, but usually given after S144 is declared.
If this seems horribly repressive to Americans, all they need to do is witness a subcontinent riot. Say by about 25,000 people facing 200 police. American riots are Pre-Kindergarten stuff in comparison because Americans are individualistic. Indians are very individualistic, more so than Americans, but when you have Indians in a mob, it can quickly get to a mindlessly coordinated kill, kill, and kill; policemen caught in the mob, women, children, old people, and the killing is personal, not people with guns shooting from afar. This is actual chopping up people and burning them to death and bashing in their heads with bricks. What happened in Urumchi - 156 dead and 1000 injured is insignificant compared to what happens when Indian mobs get going - Indian here means Pakistani and Bangladeshi too.
People don't stop till they've killed everyone in sight, or the Army is called in. The Army is very highly disciplined, the OC tells you to shoot to kill, that's what you do. Once the Army comes in riots end. Very quickly.
And Speaking of Urumchi 20,000 paramilitary troops later and a promise of execution for anyone who has used cruel means to commit crimes later, all is calm. Drastic? Yes. Democratic? No. But suppose two ethnic groups decide to have at each other in an American city. 156 people die in a single day. We kind of doubt that American security forces will be out in force reading people their Miranda Rights - particularly after the mob lynches a few policemen.

0230 GMT July 8, 2009

Helmand Province, Afghanistan

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2009/07/marines_push_south_i.php

Urumchi, Xinjiang Troops (presumably People's Armed Police) are out on the streets to forestall more Uigher-Han violence. By accounts, it seems they have succeeded in preventing further rioting. Han Chinese say 90% of the 156% dead in the riots are from their ethnic group; the Uighers say the toll is much higher and the majority from their community.
Meanwhile, President Hu cut short a G8 visit, and cancelled a Portugal visit, to return to Beijing,
Somalia Fighting has been continuing in Mogadishu, albeit at reduced scales, with a few dead each day.
Somalia says more AU troops are to arrive, but no one seems to know from which country and how many.
Honduras Both the ousted president and the interim president have agreed to talks under the leadership of Costa Rica's President, Senor Oscar Arias.
Clearly its the Foreign Hand (the US, specifically Secretary Clinton) has made the two sides agree, as earlier they were saying negotiations were out of the question.
More evidence ousted Mr. Zelaya hero worships Hugo, our favorite dictator: he said if he'd had a parachute, he would have used it to return home after his plane was denied permission to land. Well, he knew he wasn't going to be allowed, so why didn't he come equipped with a 'chute? Besides, did he really need one? Seems to us he could simply have held on to his giant hat and leaped out of the plane.
Mr. Robert McNamara former president of Ford Motors, US Secretary for Defense 1961-1968, and President of the World Bank died at the age of 93.
Notice we said nothing about his being the architect of the Vietnam War. He was not. He carried out policies as he was required by his President, and if he didn't speak of his doubts till years later, how does that matter? You were either on the team or off the team; he was appointed to serve the President and not the United States. Had he resigned, someone else would have taken over with more of the same. Vietnam was a process the Americans had to go through from beginning to end. We don't go with the Great Man theory: the only one who could have changed things was President Johnson, but please to remember much of the country supported the war till its last years.
If we have to criticize Mr. McNamara, we'd prefer to do it for his unprovoked. completely unnecessary, and probably the most dangerous act undertaken by any single person in history. This was the strategic nuclear buildup. At a time the Russians had six ICBMs, it was McNamara who convinced the US there was a missile gap. He then proceeded to build up to a nuclear strategic force of 656 Polaris missiles, 1054 ICBMs, and 600+ B-52 bombers, forcing the Soviets to respond because they believed - with great justification - that the US was building a first-strike capability. The business of graduated response - all utter bosh - was also his contribution to humanity, and led to an eventual US force of perhaps 30,000+ nuclear weapons at all levels, with the Soviets responding with 20,000+. And of course, graduated response is what got the US into trouble in Second Indochina.
Personally, we feel he expiated his sins by his turning of the World Bank to poverty alleviation.

0230 GMT July 7, 2009

Obama-Medvedev Meeting Russia will permit 4500 transport flights (presumably on a 12-month basis) for movement of US personnel and supplies to Afghanistan.
The leaders signed an agreement cutting the maximum number of allowed strategic warheads from 2200 to 1675. We're told this is a bit moot as neither has that many deployed.
An amusing story about the US Marines in Helmand http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/07/06/afghanistan.marine.standoff/index.html OK, some bad guys got away. The important thing is the Marines respected local cultural norms, failure to do which could have made enemies. As for the bad guys, there surely be other chances to get them.
The campaign from the British side http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article6652448.ece
Honduras asks Nicaragua, fraternally, to stop moving troops to the border. (Washington Post, July 6, Page A9.) Nicaraguans go ballistic "we aren't doing anything of the sort, this is a ploy to divert attention from the real problem, etc etc."
Pressed, the Nicaraguans said "OK, its just a few troops who are disobeying their officers."
Really? That means the troops mutinied. Shouldn't Nicaragua Government be hunting them down? If they can mutiny and make for the Honduras border to create mayhem for another country, then can't they tomorrow mutiny in the capital and create mayhem for the government?
The reason, of course, the Nicaragua government is not worried about mutinying troops is that no one has mutinied.
156 Dead in Xinjiang Riot - in one day, and the majority are ethnic Muslims protesting the killing of two Uigher factory workers. The odd thing is that the British press, at least, is talking about 1000 rioters and 3000 rioters. Very few people except the police have guns. So why this very high death toll? One eyewitness speaks of police shooting students at the local university.
Okay, the same people who wanted intervention in Iran: let's hear it for intervention in China. How about breaking diplomatic relations, banning trade, freezing assets, and so on?
Oh darn, we forgot - again. US is on it's way to being a Chinese vassal. Can't kiss the Chinese fat behinds enough times while the Chinese fart in our faces

0230 GMT July 6. 2009

Helmand, Afghanistan Some nice pictures of British engineers and infantry from 2 Mercians in action http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1197721/Turning-heat-Taliban-Mailmen-British-push-claims-victims.html
Honduras The Government did not allow the ousted ex-President Zelaya to land as he attempted a return to his country. He had promised to be a good boy, behave himself for his remaining months in office, and retire to his farm at the end of his term. The Government said he would be arrested and tried for crimes against the Constitution and the State if he returned.
Best to remember in all this the ex-Prez got into this mess because first he asked the Army chief to help him stage his referendum on extending his term - after the Supreme Court told him he couldn't do it. When the Army chief said "No", correctly in our view, he fired the Army Chief. Was all this the work of a peacefully democratic man? Looks more like he wanted the Army to stage a coup - for him.
After ex-Prez fired the Army Chief, Parliament deposed ex-Prez and elected one of its own as temp Prez - the man has already said he is there only as caretaker up to the elections.
Okay, so UN is upset, US is upset, OAS is upset. But when the man is refusing to obey the law of his land, what is the land supposed do?
It's okay to say everyone needed to cool off. But how do you cool off when Hugo has been pumping in money and agents to help then Prez Zelaya stage a coup? Do you let the Prez continue while Hugo does his nefarious thing, include invade as he has been threatening to do - all to support "democracy", we all know Hugo is the biggest democrat in the world. Do we wait till the Venezuela paratroopers arrive in the capital to support democracy?
Honduras is a small country, Venezuela is a large country. After the event we can all be critics and say the Hondurans should have done X, Y, and Z. So maybe there was a better way to handle it. So the Hondurans panicked - easy enough to do with Hugo is breathing down your neck. So let's cut them some slack, and lets have the United States stop behaving holier than thou.
Why couldn't the Americans suggest a better way out when everyone was consulting them in the months leading up to this unfortunate event? Remember the South Asian saying: "The cat ate all the mice and then went on Haj to do penance." Over the last 100 years who was the cat in Latin America?
If the US - very sensibly in our view - says it has nothing to say about Hugo's antics in Venezuela, its an internal matter of the country, why is the US not doing the same for Honduras which at least is an ally?
Answer: because it's the Pakistan thing all around. US sucks up to Saudi and Iran and Egypt and China and what have you, but kicks Pakistan simply because it can. US cannot do a darn thing about Hugo. So it settles for kicking Honduras.
We don't know what the Giant Brains in Washington call it. In Iowa, where we're from, they call it bullying.
(PS: Send note to US Government reminding them Iowa is part of the United States and pays its share of taxes to keep the effete elite in happiness in Washington, DC. We in Iowa have a right to be heard.)

0230 GMT July 5, 2009

Helmand, Afghanistan Nothing much to report. US forces are operating along a 90-km stretch of the Helmand River, from the Pakistan border to the boundary with British forces in Lakshar Gar, the capital, where the Brits have been fighting for months.
The US Marine brigade commander is very sensibly cautioning that the quiet that has met the US offensive means the enemy is laying low, and that this operation is not going to be easy.
We beg to disagree. This is going to be as easy or hard as they US wants to make it. There is simply no way the Taliban can stand up to US forces. a group in a compound in one of the villages along the river decided to try the Marines' kind and affectionate nature by making a stand. Marines watched for the better part of 24 hours to make sure only fighters were in the compound. Then they called in a Harrier that flattened the place with a 500-lb bomb - notice the restraint; before this new policy a B-1 or an F-15 would have dropped a couple of 2000-pounders and leveled the village. 30 Taliban died.
In another place (Patkia, not related to the offensive) the Taliban decided to attack an isolated US/Afghanistan outpost. Okay, so they got an American and an Afghan soldier, but then the Americans hunted down the attackers and killed 22.
So the point we are trying to make is: Afghanistan is not militarily hard. Its politically very hard. It doesn't matterer that the Taliban in the Helmand River valley are laying low. Even when these lads get something together and do an insurgent attack, they get wiped out.
if the US brigade simply hangs out along the river valley - the Marines are looking for places to rent in the villages because they plan to live there and provide local security - and focuses on training the Afghans, all will be well.
The minute the Marines say "this is boring, we're done here, time to hit some other place," the show will fall apart.
Taliban tactics when attacking outposts stink. The Taliban are pathetic losers, ignorant villagers, and bogus fighters. We've brought this point up before: you can't just get a happening going with minimal training, discipline, and planning, and hope to overrun an outpost.
In Patkia, the Taliban sent in a suicider in a gasoline truck to breach the walls of the outpost and then they planned to rush in. Please get this: here we are in Afghanistan, and the Taliban think they can breach the walls this way? Get a life, guys. The defenders shot the driver, the gasoline truck exploded and may or may not have killed the American and the Afghan this way, and that was the end of it. The Taliban were firing mortars and machineguns and so on at the outpost. This is their idea of a complex attack.
Look at the way the Viet Cong sappers did it. First, their sappers were their best troops. Second, they'd spend weeks doing reconnaissance, and even find a pretext of getting into an outpost to do close scouting. With Vietnamese civilians and soldiers intermixed with the Americans at many outposts, this was not impossible. Third, they repeatedly rehearsed their attack. Fourth, they'd attack all out, if neccessary a battalion (3-400) would be committed. Fifth, they were professionals, not a bunch of half-wits just firing away to impress themselves with the noise. A VC mortar attack was an attack: heavy in the extreme, at a time no one expected it, and prolonged if they needed that. The number of times the Americans had to fight hand to hand, and the number of times it was a miracle they were not overrun, is the stuff of legends.
Okay, so this is not the jungle, and a Taliban unit cannot lay around building up three months for an attack. And this is not 1969, the sensors/reconnaissance game has changed beyond belief. But the Taliban do have mobility, they do have the time, they do look exactly like the locals, they live there, etc. etc.
It's not our business to lay down how many different ways a devastating attack can be made, where even if you don't overrun the post you kill a lot of defenders. It can be done, and if these morons knew anything about warfare, they'd do it.
Here's something kind of obvious: the VC/NVA always sought to immediately close in with the Americans because then the latter could not use their firepower. It takes a lot of courage to immediately get right into the enemy's face. The Taliban like to stay as far away as possible and bang away. That way, their life expectancy is real short: about the 4-6 hours it takes the Americans to get up reinforcements, block exit routes, plan the firepower, and mount their counterattack. It always ends the same way: the Taliban die.
Is that a smart thing to do, use a strategy that seems to rely on getting the Americans to kill so many of you that they feel bad and start weeping in their lace hankies? That's not smart. The Americans will never feel bad about killing anyone. They love killing. And they don't bring lace hankies with them anyway.
Rafsanjani Shows His Hand New York Times reports that the Association of Researchers and Teachers at Qom has called for the election results to be nullified. This is a very influential group of clerics and gives much legitimacy to the opposition leader (and loser of the election) and his supporters.
Again, this has nothing to do with the election per se: readers may remember that we'd said that behind the scenes a split in the theocracy seems to have intensified. Rafsanjani lost the previous election to the incumbent, also by a wide margin - no one went to the streets because Rafsanjani as a senior cleric prefers working within the established order.
Readers may also remember the Government briefly arrested Rafsanjani's daughter during the street protests and we'd speculated then that something was up.
We don't think there is much chance of a fresh election, and even if it takes place, remember it will not be free because again the clericals will have final say on who stands and who does not. The clericals may be fighting, but they are not going to give up power. For a truly democratic process, the clerics have to be out. Well, Rafsanjani is no democrat or West lover. Nonetheless, Supreme Leader Khatemi seems to be in trouble - and again, we'd speculated that was the case judging from the vehemence of his support for the incumbent and the very hard line he took. Its not like the clergy to come out so openly. Khatemi obviously believes critics of his boy (The Unshaven One) are out to get him and that's why he got so violent.
But again, remember that its Stalin and "How many divisions does the Pope have?" all over again. Unshaven One controls the guns, and ultimately even clerics have to be mindful of what they say.
Pakistan: Here We Go Again It appears impossible to get a straight story out of the Government of Pakistan. The other day a bomber on a motorcycle attacked a bus and wounded 30 in Rawalpindi, the Army's HQ. Government said the workers were from an arms manufacturing installation at Taxila, where Pakistan has several armament factories.
Turns out the bus was carrying Kahuta nuclear facility workers. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/05/world/asia/05pstan.html?hpw
Now, that doesn't bother us one way or the other, even though it gives the western media another chance to make stories about the danger to Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. Unlike the west, we aren't the least bit impressed by the handful of weapons Pakistan has, and we're becoming increasingly sure for a variety of reasons we cannot share that actually the Pakistanis are right when they say there is no threat to their arsenal.
What bothers us that there just seems to be no story originating with the Government that is wholly truthfully. This is why we've been skeptical about the counteroffensive against the Taliban in the NWFP. There really is no reason to believe the Government. This bus incident is just one more reason we say that.
www.longwarjournal.org draws attention to this article in the London Times http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article6638483.ece which tells of a group of British Muslims to foment trouble in Pakistan.

0230 GMT July 4, 2009

Helmand Province, Afghanistan Just to show the Americans are serious about new tactics in Afghanistan: Marines got into a firefight and one was killed; and no, they did not call in the B-1s and what not. They thought about it, decided they didn't know if civilians were around, and went about their business. Well done.
As far as we can understand what's going on: (a) the Marines helped the Afghan battalion secure a district on the Pakistan border - when we say "secure" you have to understand we mean that government forces showed up for the first time in many years and as yet the Taliban have not put up serious opposition. (b) the Marines have taken two other districts along the Helmand River Valley, which is the focus of their thrust; 1/5 and 2/8 Marines are mentioned; one battalion is having an easy time of it, the other is facing some opposition. The Brigade CO calls it a "hell of a fight" or something like that; the worlds "some opposition" are ours and more accurate. Hue City was a "hell of a fight", nothing involving the Taliban can remotely approach more than a heated skirmish. (c) The British have seized a canal's 15 crossings to aid the US drive - we haven't seen a map so can't tell where, what, how, why. The British troops are from 1 Welsh Guards, who lost their CO to an IED just as the op began, the Light Dragoons, and 2 Royal Tank Regiment.
We are both amazed and disturbed that neither major American nor major British media seems to be paying much attention to this operation. Its known several journalists are with the troops; we can hope only perhaps they haven't been allowed to file their stories for security reasons.
NWFP Pakistan Government says an Mi-17 crashed, killing 26 soldiers including three officers; bad weather, low level flight over the mountains; overload; technical problems are being blamed.
Meanwhile locals and local security officials say 41 were killed and the helicopter was shot down.
Commentators are saying since the Mi-17 has a capacity of 24 troops it seems it was overloaded. Yes and no. First, Pakistani soldiers do not weigh 200-lbs each and do not carry 100-lbs of gear. Second, helicopters in combat zones routinely carry more troops than they should and they don't necessarily crash because of that.
What the learned commentators should be looking at - assuming it was not shot down - is that this is the hot season in Pakistan, its the mountains, and hot-and-high is the worst thing for helicopters.
Governor Palin resigns and the rumors are she plans to run for a Senate seat in 2010, get national exposure and experience, and then run for Prez in 2012. Lot of back and forth on if this is a wise strategy. Meanwhile, McCain camp is blasting her for doing exactly as she pleases and not listening to the handlers. No political experts we, but we think that would be a plus. Perhaps Senator McCain would have lost anyway, but we think his giving into his handlers could not have helped.
Talking of Prez elections, we don't understand why people are still going round and round about the Iran election has to have been stolen because how can you hand-count 30-million or so ballots in 2 hours.
Actually, you can. First, it wasn't two hours. It was more like eight, which means counting started well before voting was over. Not kosher by westerner standards, we agree. But the results were announced after polls closed.
Second, we're told there were 14,000 polling stations. That means 2000+ votes per station. One thing they're not short of in Iran is people. If you have a few dozen or few score people counting 2000+ ballots, you can get through very fast.
Last, this has been said a gazillion times: this was not like a US election with ballots running into several pages and scores of offices/propositions on the ballots. This was simply a presidential election.
If you want to complain about the election, go back to first causes: the candidates are cleared by the theocrats, the government controls the media, etc etc You can't have a fair election to begin with.
The reason President Obama is not making a hue and cry is that several intel agencies have told him - once you get past the setup was not fair to begin with - the Unshaven One won by a large margin.
Westerners think just because they see a lot of people demonstrating in Teheran the voting has to be rigged. Please. Did the demonstrators look like rank-and-file Iranians? They did not. They looked like the educated middle class, particularly the younger lot.
Of course they want a change: almost anything a western youngster would consider freedom is barred to them.
But: can westerners understand this? What we consider freedom conservative Muslims consider the devil's own work. They are NOT going to vote for a social liberal. That is why the Basij did not revolt: they come from the poorer sections and they hate the western-oriented lot. You can go into all kinds of psychological analysis, and we'd be happy to, but that's irrelevant.
By the way, anyone remember that well before the election the Unshaven One was spreading government money left, right, center, and as election approached, he began spreading money in all three dimensions? That's one reason the Iran economy is in miserable shape, Unshaven One is doing a Hugo
Where was he spreading the wealth? Among the poor. Who loves him? The poor.
And by the way, do you think American elections at the state and national level are fair? Of course they're not. In America elections are about money, scads of it. Yes, just because you have a few million to spend for a Senate seat doesn't mean you're going to win. But how many Americans broke into the Senate on - say - a bus driver's salary? True that the lower down you go the less money matters. But even for stuff like county school boards you have to have a few tens of thousands, or at least a few thousands.
And also by the way: you want a foreigner's jaw to drop at one particular aspect of American elections? Tell him how we vote for our judges and sheriffs. We take it for granted here, and yes, there are good points to the concept. But you honestly have no idea how weirdly obscene foreigners consider this.
So: by all means lets blow Iran back into the Pleistocene before it gets the bomb. But lets do it because our national security requires it. And frankly, our national security does not require us to do anything about an election in Iran which after it was fixed - we had nothing to say about the way it was set up, we said that was the Iranians' business - was fair.

0230 GMT July 3, 2009

Helmand Province, Afghanistan We'd thought we'd leave the start of the Southern Afghanistan summer offensive to the Long War journal, but as of 0200 today they had not updated.
The offensive began with 4000 Marines, 650 Afghan Army troops, and around 500 British troops. Its intent is to clear the main river valley in the province of the Taliban, who are lying low despite heated rhetoric. This is only sensible; surely the Taliban must be fed up of losing every single fixed engagement against US/NATO.
We are delighted the operation has begun, but we are a bit taken aback by the wildly optimistic objectives set. These involve allowing the Afghan Government to "out down roots" before the August 20 presidential election. Folks, that's seven weeks from now; Taliban has been in control of Helmand for near 20 years with the exception of a brief period after the US invasion; and can we have a little patience before expecting the locals will trust the foreigners to stay? We feel 2-3 years will be required to put down any roots.
And this brings us back to the key point. US sensibly understands it is not going to win this war on its own, that's is the Afghans' war. But the effort to increase Afghan security forces is still woefully underfunded and the very serious lack of trainers continues.
Afghanistan should have contributed at least two brigades (4000 troops) to this operation - US/NATO has been building their army for going on eight years now. If all you get is a battalion plus of Afghan troops, instead of claiming success we should be firmly admitting to massive failure.
The truth is, the Americans ALWAYS want to go to it alone, and they are ALWAYS looking for a fight, bless them. Fighting is in the US's DNA. Its really no fun to be training the natives when you can have so much fun mounting offensive operations with all the Bang Bam Bah, and its even more fun when you know the bad guys are not in a position to inflict any meaningful casualties on you.
With a Marine Expeditionary Brigade now available, US should first clear and hold a reasonably-easy-to defend area, and then settle down to training the Afghans. This is not going to work if the Marines, after two months, start getting restless again and longingly eyeing more Helmand districts or even other provinces. If the MEB now sits down to train a couple of Afghan divisions within two years, and then moves on to clear more areas, they will have assured long-term success.
The Taliban live in Helmand, the Americans do not. That alone should get the US to understand that that clearing out area after area with a minimum of hold is folly.
We are happy to say that from what we hear, a great many American military commanders understand this. But you can understand what you want, changing your DNA is not easy. The Marines haven't had a good fight since Fallujah, and even then their total casualties weren't notably more than a regimental single night operation against a tough NVA battalion or two. Helmand is going to be all pink blankies and bunny slippers compared to Fallujah, which in its turn was not much of a fight from the Corps's viewpoint. We are going to be very, very surprised if the MEB is not already planning a major fall operation, and a winter operation too.
Anyway, let's see what the Army now does: we bet its not far behind with its showy operation.

0230 GMT July 2, 2009

NWFP Pakistan Army rejects North Waziristan Agency's Taliban rejection of the peace plan, and says the agreement is intact. Pakistan will react only if its troops are attacked.
Meanwhile, when asked what's this flummery regarding North Wazoo, the Pakistan's are drawing a very firm line in the cesspool. Their position can be summarized as: "Do you think we're nuts to take on North Wazoo? South Wazoo is going to be hard enough. Thanks but no thanks."
Can't say we're surprised - actually we are surprised, that Pakistan decided to attack in South Wazoo, though for some weeks now it's been doing its best not to start any real fighting. Again, please understand we are not criticizing Pakistan - from its viewpoint taking on the frontier Taliban is cutting off its sword arm in the West. We understand.
All we're saying is that from the US point of view, none of this is helpful; and we're going to go back to saying what we've said ad nauseum: stop trying to force Pakistan to do what you should yourself do. Its not going to work, and unless the sun is going to start rising in the north, you can be pretty sure that in 2010 the Taliban will back in Swat and Buner and Dir and Shangla and etc - they haven't really left, truthfully, they're laying low.
Meantime, if you need to grind your teeth in frustration, read Bill Roggio in yesterday's www.longwarjournal.org - he's detailed all the Taliban Pakistan is NOT going to fight, which makes very clear it's after the Mesud because he was ready to march on Islamabad, but those Taliban that have not attacked Pakistan, Pakistan is not going to touch.
A New Idea To Make Money While catching up on the daily news, if there's any big story about women's fashions, the Editor always takes a minute to check what's going on. In his salad days he wanted to be a women's designer, because, after all, where else could one get real close to women? This lasted only till the day a lady fashionita friend (they hadn't invented the English word fashionata back then) explained things gently to Editor, shattering his life forever. She asked: "Have you ever wondered why so many gay men work in women's fashion?"
Editor in those days did very little wondering, he was always energetically chasing some lady or the other. When he got the answer from his friend, and his plans for design school ended, he nonetheless kept up his interest in the field.
So today Editor comes across the Not So Little Bikini that's supposed to be the fashion rage in England, and a bright neon light bulb appears on top of his head.
One of the designs, selling for ~80 American for the bottom, looks exactly like Editor's boxers with the lower 8 inches cut off.
So: Boxer's wholesale cost is approximately $1.50 landed. Add the cost of the snipping (overseas) and you get $2. (If you need to ask why less material costs more money for the item, you clearly know nothing about the fashion/production world). Wholesale the finished product for 20 American, give half to the name designer, subtract full overheads and cost, and you should have $5 left.
Now is this a genius idea or what? If you don't hear from the Editor for a few days, he's busy trying to line up a name designer who wont want half a mil up front.
Pipe dreams? Well, US thinks it's going to win the GWOT with 43 Army brigades that are as anemic as bikini models. So what's wrong with thinking Editor can line up a name designer without advance cash? We allow the Americans their fantasies; they should allow Editor his.
Air France 447 For the latest: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article6612165.ece As for the Yemen Airbus, ignore that as irrelevant. First it was a 310 and long in the tooth. Second, Air France was not flying it. Third, it was banned from French air space in 2007. We need say no more.
Also read http://timescorrespondents.typepad.com/charles_bremner/2009/07/fantasy-and-facts-over-airbus-disasters.html

0230 GMT July 1, 2009

NWFP Pakistan security officials say 27 soldiers were killed in the ambush in North Waziristan, not 16 as the Government says, Government has expressed outrage at the ambush because, says the Government, it was not conducting operations in the district.
This we find quite peculiar. Is it the Government's position that Taliban must retaliate only at points the Government is conducting operations? Surely Government is aware that if and when it cleared South Waziristan the US would force it to go for North Waziristan?
The bad news - which many of us were waiting for - is that the North Waziristan Taliban has called off its peace agreement with the Government and says it will fight. The local chiefs are said to be recalling fighters from Afghanistan.
It appears that the other Taliban (non Mesud) seemed to think the Government had a right to strike back in Buner and Dir because they were not covered by the peace agreement and Mesud broke the agreement by entering those districts. The other Taliban seem almost to have regarded Swat as regrettable, but understandable because of the Mesud's perfidy. But they are not going to sit back and watch South Waziristan fall to the Government.
Tribal politics anywhere can drive outsiders to a lunatic state, but Afghan/Pakistan frontier politics are amazingly complex because there are scores, perhaps even some hundreds, of ethnic groups and sub-groups.
This will ease NATO/US's position for the summer offensive now getting underway, but will make things much harder for Pakistan.
The Nation says utilities have been restored in parts of Shangla District, which the Taliban entered in small numbers (less than 100) after the took Buner - Shangla is to the East of Buner. Here's the thing: we had no idea utilities were down in Shangla to begin with. This information is contained in an update on the fight between the Government and the Taliban, so we assume the later were responsible for the disruptions. The newspaper, of course, paints a picture of unremitting government victories big and small. Only time will tell if this is correct, because media - including Pakistan media - are not allowed in the war zone. So the bulk of the information comes from the Government.
US Senate The Minnesota Supreme Court has given the contested Senate seat to the Democratic candidate, 8 months after the election that the Republican candidate lost by a handful of votes.
This gives the Democrats a theoretical filibuster proof majority in the Senate, but our foreign readers at least need to be reminded that in many respects labels such as Democratic and Republican mean much less in the US than equivalent party labels in parliamentary countries. Both sides have wide divergences in views within their own parties. So for example on the health insurance bill there are Democrats who cannot be counted on to vote for it; likewise, some liberal Republicans may vote "aye". So its hard to tell in advance what will happen on any particular bill.

Continue to archived news NOV 2009 OCT 2009 SEP 2009 AUG 2009 JUL 2009 JUN 2009 MAY 2009 APR 2009 MAR 2009 FEB 2009 JAN 2009 DEC 2008 NOV 2008 OCT 2008 SEP 2008 AUG 2008 JUL 2008 JUN 2008 MAY 2008 APR 2008 MAR 2008 FEB 2008 JAN 2008

2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002

MilitaryFriends.com - the best military dating site!

Looking for the perfect holiday gift?

What could be better than framed art prints, posters, and calenders – even greeting cards – with soaring aircraft, "full-speed-ahead" warships, or breathtaking images of space, our final frontier? Or how about inspiring military history scenes?

The PatriArt Gallery has it all.

Back to Main