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Pakistan Government Claims Victory In Dir Within just five days, the Pakistan Government says it controls Dir District. We expected a victory declaration in two weeks, not in less than a week.
So is this a great victory or are the Pakistanis simply setting the ground to cease operations here and go home? We will be the first to apologize and to congratulate the Pakistanis if indeed they have won and the Taliban has lost one district. But right now, we are deeply skeptical.
Pakistan Says Takes Dagger in Buner The Government says heliborne troops were dropped behind Taliban position in Daggar, a town in Buner District, and that the troops are linking up with others attacking Daggar from the front.
Best to see what happens, if anything. Remember, the Taliban are guerillas. If the pressure gets too much for them, they will withdraw and attack again when it is to their advantage. This has happened each and every time in the past few years, we are entitled to say: "We'll believe it when we see it."
Meanwhile, the Taliban captured 70 policemen and paramilitary personnel in Buner, and while 18 either escaped or were let go, the rest are still hostages. This will do wonders for the morale of the police and paramilitary, who tend to go all wpbbly at the least excuse. We wager right now Taliban messengers are visiting the home villages and individual houses of the hostages, and warning residents that of the police and paramilitary continue operations, the hostages will die.
Taliban attack Manshera District For rebels said to be taking a beating in Dir and Buner, this lot is tres cheeky. www.longwarjournal.org says some of the Taliban withdrawing earlier from Buner have entered Manshera District and set up camp there.
The LWJ says that after their success in Swat and Malakand Division (7 districts) the Taliban have been attacking targets in Hazara Division, which consists of Abbottabad, Battagram, Haripur, Kohistan and Mansehra Districts. Haripur, of course, abuts Islamabad and we discussed the Taliban's entry into this, the last of two districts firmly under government control in the NWFP.
entering Haripur puts the Taliban within striking distance of the giant Tarbela dam, which produces one-third of Pakistan's power. The move into Manshera puts the Taliban in a position to use the Karakoram Highway for a direct route to Muzzafarabad, which borders Indian Kashmir.
The US and India and Pakistan Everytime the US asks Pakistan to shift troops westward from the Indian border, Pakistan says the US has to pressure India into settling Kashmir. Some people actually buy this idea, including General Petraus, who we greatly admire. He said the other day that Kashmir was a big factor and needed settlement.
Now, the good general is obviously not a politician, because by that one statement he torpedoed any credibility he might have with the Indians. Considering the Indians handily neutralized Imperial Viceroy Holbrooke, who these days makes nice about the importance of working with India, neutralizing a mere 4-star general will require no effort at all by India.
This gaffee has no impact on our admiration for the good general, as it no way changes his status as the Man Who Saved America's Butt in Iraq When Said Butt Was Cooked Crisp.
But the General and others like him might need to attend to a tiny fact. Indian Kashmir at this very moment is under attack not just by Pakistan-based insurgents, but by active/retired Pakistan Army and Pakistan Special Service Group personnel.
Still further, they might want to ponder what exactly is it the US has that India wants so badly that India can be persuaded to act against its national interests?
Might we suggest the answer is "nothing'?

0230 GMT April 29, 2009

North West Frontier Province We wish we could give readers a decent picture with what's going on with the Pakistan counteroffensive in Dir and now in Buner. We are handicapped by three factors: (a) Journalists of any stripe are banned; (b) on past evidence, almost no statement made by the government regarding the insurgents and operations can be trusted; indeed, on past evidence you have to assume the government is fibbing; (c) reports from the districts are made by locally-resident journalists and people phoning in news to Pakistan media in the big cities. These reports are highly fragmented, contradictory, and impossible to understand because they are written in code.
By code we mean the English translation of the reports is chancy at best, and also the district journalists assume outsiders know everything about the district. No background is provided, no explanation is given, and even worse, the local journalists have no military understanding or knowledge.
Matters are not helped by the government's habit of referring to all forces as "troops" whereas there are three types of forces engaged. Very lightly armed police which has no capacity whatsoever to fight insurgents and sensibly runs away each time the insurgents heave to over the horizon. Frontier Corps paramilitary who have company level heavy weapons but are mere cannon fodder and have been beat up so often by the insurgents, we marvel they are still obeying orders and going on the attack - if that is what we are doing, and since the government fibs, we don't know this is actually the case. Last, the regular infantry which has been conspicuous by its absence.
The government has said that regular infantry is participating in the Buner operation. Problem is that due to the reasonable justification of operational security, the government never gives details. So for all we know, a company from a regular battalion may have been sent to Buner with orders to hunker down, or a company may have been sent to provide security for the armor.
What we do know does not bode well First, the government is already claiming big successes and hinting the operation will be over soon. CI is a very long term and very strenuous undertaking, particularly in high mountain terrain. You have somewhere upwards of 20,000 militants available from the various groups; you really need 200,000 well-trained troops to fight them, and you have to be prepared for years of effort. See, for example, the Sri Lanka insurgency which is now ending after almost three decades.
Pakistan has not committed anywhere that number of well-trained troops. To talk about ops being over soon indicates only one thing: the swift sell-out is being prepared - for the gazillionth time.
Remember that Pakistan swung into torpid action only after the US began delivering the direst warning and threats. It is not unreasonable to assume that once again the whole shmoo is yet another show operation to placate Massa Sam.
Second, there are fragmentary reports of Taliban flocking to the battle area from other parts of the NWFP. If these reports are correct, then the Pakistan government can just forget any victory. Like all professional fighters, the Taliban give ground when they are pressed, and they bounce back faster than the Pakistan government can say "we've won". Sometimes they don't take as much as 72-hours to overrun territory they have lost.
Third, reports from Buner say the Taliban have blown up a bridge and are taking up positions on the mountain heights. There aren't that many roads and bridges that can take military vehicles in Buner to begin with. We very much regret that we do not have money to bring to you the latest on the NWFP road network. BTW, when we say the latest, we mean anything more recent than 1960. If the Taliban immobilize Pakistani military traffic by destroying a dozen bridges, you can simply stop paying attention and put the battle down as lost.
There is no way the Pakistan Army is going to repeatedly go off road to retake heights. At the best of times this is a brutally difficult and costly operation - go back to the Italian Campaign in World War II to get some idea, and by Himalayan standards those were hills, not mountains. And these are not the best of times for the Pakistani forces.
What you will then see is wholesale use of firepower, and spiraling civilian casualties who will be claimed as Taliban, and no progress.
The other day we spoke of hypocrisy concerning Sri Lanka where the world was screaming at Sri Lanka to spare the civilians even if it meant a ceasefire. Right now you can see that hypocrisy at work in the case of Pakistan.
There are already 600,000 internally displaced refugees that are being cared for by aid agencies; the agencies are said to be be preparing for this total to climb to 1-million, i.e., an additional 400,000,
The Pakistan government is blasting left and right, tens of thousands of people are trapped in their villages, tens of thousands are running with nothing except the clothes on their back, hundreds are being killed and wounded.
So where is Massa Sam, Massa John Bull, and all the western bleeding heart liberals? No where, obviously, because its important to the west that the insurgents be defeated, so its all right, mate, fire away.
We want to be clear we at no point argue that wars have to be stopped because of the civilians caught in the middle. War is war. All we are saying is, if you are going to preach to the Sri Lankans, then make sure you show the same moral standard you want them to follow.

0230 GMT April 28, 2009

Pakistan says 40 Insurgents Die in fighting, 8 Government KIA in fighting in Lower Dir District The troops being used are the same Frontier Corps that the Taliban has repeatedly thrashed, but the US/UK have done some retraining of some units of the FC, and the Pakistan Army is going all-out with the use of firepower. So the toll is possible, but of course fleeing locals are also reporting civilian casualties.
In what may or may not be a significant development, the bulk of the refugees seem to to be women and children. Are the men staying back to guard their property or are they insurgents? And why is the Pakistan Army not using its infantry? The FC are, after all, border police.
So we've been saying for some time that the regular army will not fight the Taliban, based on what we hear from Indian and Pakistani sources. But now you can hear the same thing from US sources (http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2009/04/pakistan_touts_succe.php) "The Army leadership and General Kiyani [the Chief of Army Staff] in particular fear that battling the Taliban will split the officer corps and the rank and file," a senior US military intelligence official told The Long War Journal. "There is significant support or sympathizes in the military for the Taliban and other Pakistani jihadi organizations. A full on fight [with the Taliban] might force them to take sides."
And this will NOT be music to US ears: "Later speaking at a news conference at the DCO office, Khattak (a government official) termed the FC operation as 'very limited' and said it was not a full pledge military operation. He said the FC personnel were only targeting militants’ positions in the area and soon it would be ended. He said it would have no effects on the Nizam-I-Adl regulation signed by the president of Pakistan and determined that the ANP led provincial government would implement it at any cost. " http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/pakistan/11-pakistan-begins-military-offensive-against-taliban--07
The resolution referred to is the one that imposed Sharia in the region. The official's statement is double-edged: it is a crude attempt to split the insurgents, who have announced the peace deal is dead, and they are now free to resume attacks against Government forces. But it is also intended to give the Pakistan Government an out, to say to the US "We beat them up and now they want to negotiate. Excuse us while we cease fire and start negotiations.
The thing is the insurgents are ALWAYS ready to negotiate to buy time, so they WILL agree to talk - they've said so, too. But is this going to get them to stop their advance? Fat hope. The insurgents have NEVER kept an agreement with the Government. Why will they do so now?
But meantime, Pakistan thinks it will have gotten itself off the hook with the US. Each time this happens, the US is less and less willing to swallow Government lies. In our personal opinion, we don't think anything will get the Pakistanis off the hook with the US except a sustained, heavy effort to DEFEAT the Taliban. And this 'aint happening.
Please note: if the Pakistan Government was really able to make inroads against the Taliban, this scruffy lot would simply shift their focus to Afghanistan, so that improvement in the east will mean deterioration in the west. And of course, the minute the coast is clear, the Taliban will resume their advance East. And note we said "if the Pakistan Government was really able to make inroads". Pakistan cannot, because its Army wont fight, and its Frontier Corps will stop fighting the minute the Taliban start attacking FC outposts across the board, taking prisoners and executing some of them.
Sri Lanka Army stops use of firepower against the last rebels and will rely on infantry instead. A few hundred rebels are holding 10,000 or more civilians hostage. Sri Lanka has refused calls for a ceasefire - and nor should it agree - but international pressure seems to have convinced the Army that its better for PR to stop the use of gunships, air strike, and artillery.
Of course, this begs the question: would people like US and UK stop use of firepower if they were in the same situation, and accept the inevitable jump in Army casualties? We don't think so. We feel the western nations are being hypocrites as usual, but what the hey, everyone's hypocritical about something.

0230 GMT April 27, 2009

Buner Resident Show Their Anxiety To Be Freed From The Taliban: Request Army To Stay Out This is because much as people might dislike the Taliban, they fear the Pakistan Army more. North West Frontier Province teems with several hundred thousand internal refugees displaced in the Army's campaigns, and the people of Buner do not want to be added to that list.
So they are begging the Taliban to put away their weapons so as not to give the Army an excuse to enter the district. We are sure the Taliban have already complied. There were only 500 of them to begin with, and most have left to conquer Swabi District, which will bring them down to the Pakistani plains.
Pakistan Army, meanwhile, has already started its firepower attacks in Dir District, which borders both Swat and Afghanistan, with gunship sorties and artillery. Great way to win hearts and minds, US and Pakistan, just rocket, shell, and bomb the heck out of everyone, and let God sort out the innocent from the guilty. Paramilitary forces have entered Lower Dir, and refugees are starting to stream out of that district.
The regular infantry is not to be seen, and the Taliban have repeatedly beaten the paramilitary forces with contemptible ease.
So you can draw one of two conclusions. Either Pakistan - once again - is not serious about taking on the Taliban. Or its soldiers and officers are refusing to take on the Taliban. Both situations have played themselves out again and again over the last 3 years.
US keeps saying: "we give you one more chance to fight the Taliban or else we pull the trigger of the gun that's aimed at your head." The Pakistanis scramble around saying "Yes Massa, Good Massa, Kind Massa", their troops march up and down, their planes, gunships, and helicopters make loud boom-booms, more civilians get killed, and the Taliban continues advancing.
So who do we blame, the US Government for willfully ignoring reality or the Pakistanis desperately trying to avoid fighting.
Everyone including Orbat.com has blamed Pakistan. But we're starting to think the real messups are in the US Government.
Meanwhile, we are getting seriously irritated by western analysts who say the Pakistan Army is not trained for counter-insurgency How many times do we have to repeat: Pakistan army is rather good at CI. Ask the Bangladeshis and the Baloch people if you don't believe us.

Bringing the pirates to trial

Its no secret that the majority of captured pirates are being released because the governments whose ships captured them don't want to deal with bringing them to justice.
US has arm-twisted Kenya into trying and jailing some pirates, but the Kenyans are getting fed up and say they will not be made into a dumping ground for pirate garbage.
May we ask just why the US has hit on the bizarre notion of making another country - a small, relatively poor, and tribally fissured African country - responsible for the pirates?
Could it be because the US itself is not serious and doesn't want the hassle of putting the prisoners through the criminal justice process?
If so, time for Americans to stop blaming NATO, EU et al for not wanting the hassle.
Piracy is a crime without borders and with universal jurisdiction. ANY country can arrest pirates ANYWHERE in the world even if its not its ships that have been hijacked.
The solution to trying the pirates is simple. They should be handed over to the US for trial in accordance with all the rights and obligations shown toward criminal prisoners. Let the trials be open, held in the US, and let the courts sentence or release the accused.
A few hundred more criminals is just an insignificant blip in the US criminal justice system, which is geared toward arresting, charging, putting on trial, and jailing hundreds of thousands of people a year.
After pirates start seeing their comrades getting 30 years to life in America's notorious prisons, we suspect they'll reassess the risk-reward ratio, which right now is rather heavily tilted in their favor.

0230 GMT April 26, 2009

If the US really made this threat, it had better be prepared for the consequences

Sunday Times (London) says the US has told Pakistan either Pakistan cleans up Swat or the US will do the job. (See http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article6168940.ece)
Lets assume the US really made the threat and means it. Keep in mind US is a master of the universe when it comes to disinformation and using the press for its own purposes. This report sources a "senior Pakistani official". That doesn't mean the US is not bluffing. For example, a US official delivers the threat to the Pakistan, and US has no intention of doing the needful, it just wants to get the word out it has had it with Pakistan. The Pakistani official tells a British contact who tells the Sunday Times. We can come up with a dozen different scenarios.
Occam's Razor and all that, so lets not do any nuancing, lets assume the US really made the threat.
Militarily, no problem. Swat is "inland" from the perspective of the US forces in Afghanistan. A couple of bomber squadrons, a couple of tactical fighter wings, 3-4 army brigades lifted in by helicopter and para-dropped, and 72-120 hours, the US has sanitized Swat.
High fives and congratulations all around.
US at all levels is just so unbelievably angry at Pakistan's betrayal (as we've explained, Pakistan has no choice but to betray its promises to the Americans and the Americans did not do the right thing in forcing Pakistan to make those promises to begin with) that Orbat.com opines if the US attacked Swat tonight 95% of Americans would support their government
Now comes the Parade of the "Buts" We've said many times, no one on earth can resist the US in a conventional fight. The Americans can blow anyone away.
But 1 Don't the Taliban already know this? They have repeatedly proved they are astonishingly astute and adaptable. So are they going to resist the Americans and be slaughtered? Nope. If there is one thing you can be sure of is that they will not be in Swat at all. And even if they are, they will be in the middle of towns and villages, pretending to be good old homeboys.
Result of all this? Thousands of civilian casualties, Taliban very intact.
But 2 Presumably the US knows this. So what is going to do? If US wants to clean out Swat carefully, using its Afghan tactics - which are quite good - then US has to commit to a couple of brigades for a couple of years. But where are the brigades going to come from? Isn't this going to reduce troops available for Afghanistan? Are we going to once again run the ground forces ragged? And is the US ready to repel non-stop attacks from outside Swat District? Is the US ready to occupy the Pakistan North West Frontier? So what are we looking at? Three divisions? Four divisions? Six divisions? Gonna mobilize the National Guard, are we? American people are gonna go for yet another major front in GWOT? Think about it.
Etc etc etc. We could go on, but we think we've made our point.
But 3: Every action has a reaction So lets think what happens if the US hits Swat. You have attacked Pakistan, a country of 175 million people. Are the Pakistanis going to just sit back and take it?. We don't think so.
First, if Pakistan Army attacks Swat on what will obviously be American orders, how long is the Army going to last when millions of civilians start surrounding Army bases and preventing the Army from moving? Is the Pakistan army going to repress its own people to help the Americans.
Second, if the Pakistan Army does not attack the Americans regardless of cost, the people of Pakistan will overthrow both their government and their army leadership. Has the US thought what happens then through?
But 4: Will the Indians help Short answer: no. Sorry, no can amplify. Please, however, take that as a given. India may well take advantage of the chaos in Pakistan that will result if US moves against Swat, but only to recapture Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. Bit for the rest, India has too many problems of its own to take on the problems that will come if it moves into Pakistan.
Editor has to be frank (actually he's Ravi, but let's assume for the discussion he is frank). What he wants India to do - attack Pakistan regardless of if US helps or not is one thing. What India will actually do is so far away from what he wants that it might as well be at the other end of the universe.
Let's be plain. As far as an Indian is concerned, the absolute most important thing is a satisfactory bowel movement first thing after morning tea. Nothing much else matters to Indians.
Sorry to put down one's own people and government (actually Editor is not sorry at all but has to pretend he is) but Editor would be derelict in his duty to America if was to give Americans the littlest, teeniest bit of hope regarding India's intentions.

0230 GMT April 25, 2009

With Pakistan, there's the news...

Pakistan Army chief delivers stern warning to the militants that they will be severely dealt with unless they stop taking over more territory...Chief says Army rank and file have decided to do their duty...Taliban withdrawing from Buner...Army operation in Swat imminent in 48 hours...Chief says US pronouncements warning of collapse of Pakistan are to be condemned...a democratic nation of 170-million cannot be intimidated by a few insurgents...Army will be gloves off in dealing with rebels in Swat...Government says Buner is being dealt with, 250 troops have been sent to restore law and order...etc etc etc

Then there's the news

Non-resident Taliban are withdrawing from Buner; local Taliban will stay, and will not carry arms as Taliban has come to Buner "only to preach true Islam" and wish to harm no-one...non-resident Taliban have been responsible for looting some local houses...250 lightly armed police did try and enter Buner, but after one convoy was ambushed the police are withdrawing...locals says Taliban controls entire district, including government/administration builds, government officials have fled, women nowhere to be seen in the bazaars except a few fully covered...withdrawing Taliban are moving into Swabi District...etc etc etc

You've guessed it...

The first version is the Pakistan Government's official version, the second is the reality. How can the Pakistan Army, which has been sitting licking its wounds, and which did absolutely nothing as the Pakistan overran Buner, and taunted the army by staging a victory past right outside the Punjab Regimental Center in Mardan, now suddenly launch a major operation to clear Swat in 48 hours? Doesn't it take a couple of weeks at least to plan things in detail, make sure officers and men know what they're doing, arrange the logistics, etc etc.?
Could it be a co-inky-dinky that the army began issuing these stern warnings right after Massa Sam threatened the direst consequences if Pakistan did not move against the insurgents? PS: you didn't hear about the US threats to Pakistan because that's all "diplomacy" behind the scenes.
And having had its sorry rear whupped three times by the Taliban in Swat by the Taliban, how come the Army will eliminate the insurgents? And 'scuse us, are you going to drop nukes on the Taliban when you say you will be gloves off? Because, dear Army, you already have many times thrown everything you have against the Taliban to no avail: tank, artillery, helicopter gunships, and unrestricted air bombardment.

Now let's analyze the real news a bit...

So suppose its World War II, and the Allies are advancing up Italy, and several divisions are withdrawn. Do the Germans think the Allies are defeated and so they are withdrawing. No, dear boys and girls, those withdrawing divisions are going to a new invasion of Southern France, opening a new front against Germany. The Allies are so confident they're going to take Italy they decide to redeploy several divisions (was it seven divisions? memory is a bit foggy). As far as GHQ Berlin is concerned, this is Not Good News.
So look at this folks: just week before last, Taliban had not overrun Swabi District. It was contested territory. So if they are now "withdrawing" from Buner into Swabi, is it for the spring time blossoms and fresh air? Hardly. They're preparing to overrun Swabi District. This is Not Good News. as Bill Roggio has explained, once they take control of Swabi, Mardan, and Haripur Districts, it's the beginning of the end for Islamabad.
The situation is so serious, Pakistan Government is deploying Rangers to the hills outside Islamabad, and the Rangers HQ is issuing heroic statements such as: "To get to Islamabad they will have to get past us."
Problemo, dudes. Agreed the Rangers are not the Frontier Corps, but they are also lightly-armed paramilitary. They havent seen action for 37 years. They are also locally recruited, and where do people think the insurgents fighting India in Kashmir for the last 22 years come from? Surprise: they come from the Punjab. So if we say the Frontier Corps would not fight the insurgents in the NWFP because they were kin, why should Pakistan Rangers fight to defend Islamabad when they will also be fighting kin?
Not so fast, McGee you say, there's no such thing as the Punjab Taliban. Quite right, Meinherr. Punjab fundamentalist insurgent groups go by different names, and they've joined up with the Taliban. They want now to overthrow the Government of Pakistan as much as the Taliban do because they believe the GOP, under pressure from US, has abandoned the jihad against India; even though the Kashmir insurgency has restarted, these lads have bigger ambitions than just getting killed in Kashmir for the next 22 years.
And - surprise: the bulk of the Pakistan Army is Punjabi. a lot of hot air has been passed about the Pakistan Army not wanting to fight the Taliban because they are brothers. Hello, peeps. There's unlikely to be any village in Pakistan Punjab that doesn't have a significant number of men in the Army. Pakistan Army Punjabi, Sindhi, and Baluchi troops refused to fight the NWFP Taliban just as much as the NWFP troops. Why when upward of 70% of the Army is Punjabi, are these men now going to suddenly start fighting, particularly when their own brothers (literally) join in the attack on Islamabad?

Now to the nub of the matter

Every time we try and explain why Pakistan won't fight the Taliban regardless of what the US does, we get diverted by events. These darn insurgents don't have the decency to wait till Editor finishes his exposition before making their next advance. Bally unsporting. So we're going to summarize our argument in a few quick paras, and expound away another time.
First, Pakistan is not going to sacrifice its national security for the US, and its national security requires control of Afghanistan.
Second, every last person in Pakistan aside from a few bootlickers have had it to here with the Americans. Americans have beaten and cursed and spat on the Pakistani dog for so long, the dog is ready to fight back even if its knows it will be killed. There is a point beyond you cannot push a human being: he will not do your will, even if you shoot him. The Pakistanis are there.
Editor and others who know what's going in Pakistan can assure Washington: if the Army is required by its senior officers to take anything more than symbolic action against the Taliban, the senior officers will be killed. The senior officer have no intention of being killed, if only because they above all have had to smile and bow and scrape to the Americans.
But you are wrong, Editor, will say a dozen people who have just returned from their tenth trip to Pakistan. The government, bureaucracy, army, are all against the Taliban. They will fight.
Really? So when is it they will fight? They haven't so far, and pretty soon - months, likely, all of Pakistan west of the Indus will be Indian country. We can go only by Pakistan's deeds, not words, and its deeds show it has not fought. So where's the evidence they will fight?
Oh right, they SAY they will fight. So in eight years the Americans have not learned the Pakistanis are past masters of saying one thing and doing another? Every American who deals with the Pakistanis know this. If Head Office doesn't know it, then good luck America, you deserve to lose Pakistan.
The rank and file Pakistani soldier doesn't want to fight Taliban. He wants to kick American butt, all the way to Kabul and points west. Rank and file cannot go up against the Americans: the Americans will destroy the Pakistan military inside of two weeks. But they can kick away by continuing to back the Taliban.
Last, and perhaps most important, we're going to say something that is so obvious to anyone familiar with Pakistan, but that's so not obvious to the great majority of Americans: the army and the people of Pakistan no longer want to fight for Pakistan under the command of the current military and civil leadership.
For decades Pakistanis have chafed under the rule of the Brown Imperialists. They hate them, but saw no alternative, and saw no way of overthrowing their brown oppressors. All this business about Benazir the Great Democrat was just so much twaddle. Benazir was no different from anyone else who have ruled Pakistan in six decades. They have ALL been oppressors.
The Taliban, for the first time in Pakistan's history, are offering an alternative to the Brown Imperialists. They are offering Pakistanis a reason and a means to fight - not the Taliban, but the BI's. And guess who the Americans are allied and identified with?
Hint 1: Its not the people of Pakistan. Hint 2: Restudy Russia 1917, particularly the army. Hint 3: after that, study Iran 1979.
Is the Pakistan revolution going to happen tomorrow? Cant say. Will it happen day after? Still cant say. Is it never going to happen? Can say: it is going to happen.
As for Head Office, aka Toon Town, aka Washington, here's our solution to the problem: Pray, and pray hard. We got nothing to lose. Because its all lost already.

0230 GMT April 24, 2009

Editor is starting to feel like a music critic commenting on Nero's lyre style as he plays while Rome burns. What is the point of explaining why the US wont get anywhere in Pakistan when we learn from www.longwarjournal.org that the Taliban are now moving from Buner District into Swabi and Haripur. The latter is one of the last two districts in the NWFP marked green by LWJ, meaning firmly under government control. If you look at the map LWJ has maintained, you will see Haripur District abuts Islamabad federal territory. We'd thought the Taliban would spend a few months consolidating their gains in Buner and elsewhere before moving to the outskirts of Islamabad. They've waited all of - what? - one week. Meanwhile, to "retake" Buner, the Pakistan government has sent six platoons of Frontier Constabulary. The Constabulary, says one source, "makes the Frontier Corps look like the A-Team". Taliban have whupped the Frontier Corps each and every time the two have met. So you can estimate from this for yourself, how serious is the Pakistan Government about retaking Buner. The Constabulary are not "troops" as Islamabad is touting. Take your average US city police force, take away 3/4th of their equipment, tie one arm behind the back of each policeman, and you've still got a much more lethal force than the Constabulary.

The ISI surge against India

Mandeep Singh Bajwa

There has been a spate of fresh infiltration attempts into the Kashmir Valley in recent weeks. The Indian security forces bolstered by good intelligence attained through penetration of the insurgent groups, sigint and heightened vigilance have achieved notable successes albeit at a high cost in killed and wounded. Pakistan is thus waging a war on two fronts though of course one has one’s doubts whether the country’s establishment is indeed serious about the war on terror or against the Jihadi alliance. So what are are the Pakistani Army and ISI really up to and what are their plans?

It is learnt that the ISI has in place or is in the process of putting into position some 50 deep-penetration groups of infiltrators, saboteurs and intelligence modules in the depth areas on the Indian side from Gulmarg in South West Kashmir to Akhnur in Jammu province. Many of the personnel of these groups are from the SSG some serving most retired. While some of these modules are active the majority it is learnt are sleeper cells to be activated when the time comes (which may be very soon). At present there is a major surge of training in camps both in POK and NWFP of mixed teams of infiltrators for deep penetration into Kashmir and Muslim majority areas of the Jammu region. These comprise both serving personnel from the SSG and infantry of the Pakistan Army and elements of the Taliban. Now this is a new phenomenon which needs closer investigation. Hitherto the Taliban had not been noticed fighting in Kashmir. Is Pakistan trying to side-track the Taliban or is the ISI simply running out of the usual Punjabi recruits for the Jihad in Kashmir?

The infiltration into North Kashmir through the traditional routes in the areas of Kupwara and Gurez is again active. The object is to take advantage of the deep snow and the tough terrain. I’ve already mentioned the current advantages the Indians posses by obtaining good intelligence on routes, launching pads and dates of infiltration. In addition the use of special forces to lay ambushes based on actionable intelligence and aggressive patrolling has proved successful. The main aim of these infiltrations and the positioning of deep-penetration teams is to:-

Sabotage the ongoing elections to the Indian Parliament. It’s noteworthy that elections to the J&K State Assembly were successfully held in Dec 2008 with a high voter turnout dealing a severe blow to the aspirations of overground and underground militants.
Prevent any sort of democratic, political activity
Curb the growing assertiveness of the Kashmiri people. They’re no longer in thrall to the militants or their political counterparts.
Keep the Kashmir issue alive with the international community through acts of violence and political defiance.

So much for keeping the jihad alive in Kashmir. The ISI also keeps the offensive against Indian interests in Afghanistan. Braving terrorist strikes, kidnappings, beheadings and numerous difficulties the Indian paramilitary engineering organisation the BRO was able to complete the construction of the 219 km long strategically important Zaranj-Dilaram highway which provides Afghanistan access to the ports of the Persian Gulf. However the ISI is not deterred and plans more attacks on Indian companies and Govt officials working in the country. Adam Khan, Head of Station, Kabul has already been identified as the organiser of attacks on Indian personnel in Afghanistan notably Kabul. Colonel Ashfaq Afridi, commander of the ISI detachment at Peshawar coordinates the operations targeting Indian interests in the eastern part of the troubled nation. He is believed to be a retired officer re-employed for this specific purpose and belongs to Kohat. Again this is attributed to knowledgeable sources.

Within the country apart from the main ISI station within the embassy in Kabul, the major saboteurs, organisers of raids on Indian interests and general trouble makers from the ISI including officers, JCOs and civilian staff are based in the Pakistani consulates at heart and Mazar-i-Sharif which are somehow, perhaps because of their geographic location considered less suspect by the Afghan authorities.

Pakistan continues its strategic offensive against India whether against a growing move for peace and internal settlement of the Kashmir problem or to curb increasing Indian influence in what is considers its strategic backyard. Will the ISI attacks and amplified violence stagger Indian moves to encircle Pakistan strategically or deny it a potential to interfere within its territory? We can’t really say given the Indian reluctance to adopt aggressive postures. What is certain is that ISI attacks on India will continue whether through surrogates planting bombs in Indian cities or mercenaries targeting Indian companies. The latest round of attacks by Leftist guerrillas aimed at thwarting elections in the Red Corridor in Central and North Central India have raised hopes within Pakistani strategic circles that they (the Naxalite rebels) could do their job for them. We might well see in coming months Pakistani aid albeit through covert means to these Leftist extremists. Stranger things have happened before.

0230 GMT April 23, 2009

Why the US is not, and will not, get anywhere in Pakistan - III

So it became time to roll out the Taliban again We explained last time that for Pakistan to wait for the US to leave Afghanistan became an unviable strategy when it became clear the Americans were not leaving. The last thing Pakistan needs is an independent, functioning Afghanistan in which it is completely shut out by the West and by India. The longer Pakistan waited, the stronger Afghanistan would come, and the more entrenched the West/India.
So starting in 2005 (we have to check to be sure this was the year) Pakistan decided to let the Taliban loose again. It was a rebuilt, version 2 of the old Taliban. By 2007 is became clear even to people like the Editor who may as well live in a cave in the far Himalayas, so isolated is he from the real world, that there was a problem. The Taliban, far for being defeated, were rapidly recovering ground in Afghanistan; by 2008 even Americans were admitting Things had become Pretty Bad.
The US reaction all through 2006, 2007, 2008 was to beat up Pakistan with ever increasing force to get it to act against the Taliban. Under extreme US pressure, Pakistan deployed what is says are 100,000 troops in the NWFP. We could expend many pages on this figure, but its not relevant to the story except to note that 60,000 of the troops are in any case normally stationed in the region. This is a lot like people saying India deployed 600,000 troops to fight the Kashmir insurgency. The truth is, India deployed 200,000. The other 400,000 were stationed in peacetime in Jammu and Kashmir before the insurgency as a defense against Pakistan.
Anyhows. For a couple of years Pakistan got away in Washington by pretending it was gallantly fighting the Taliban. It was doing nothing of the sort, and the field people knew that, but of course Washington didn't want to hear that. No need to beat up Washington, Head Office never wants reality to interfere with its fantasies, no matter where you are in the world.
Now the situation got complicated The Taliban decided to go two-front, i.e., advance to the East as well as continue advancing to the West. If we get into this, this story never come to an end. For now all readers need to keep in mind is that the fundamentalist insurgency in NWFP did not begin in 2006 or whatever. It began even while the Soviet-Afghan War was underway. The insurgency in Pakistan began in the 1980s, albeit at very low levels so that hardly anyone noticed. The first priority was to fight the Soviets.
Readers have heard this enough times, no need to repeat it: once the ragtag Afghans began beating the mighty infidel Red Army, it occurred to them they could equally defeat America and the Pakistan Government.
Now, of course someone is going to say the Americans are not the Soviets, and this true but irrelevant to the story. No one really knew at that time that the USSR was falling apart and the Red Army was a Potemkin army, or if you are inclined to the Bard, all sound and fury signifying nothing. Once the Afghans got Stingers in their hot eager hands, it was all over. The Americans, on the other hand, are a highly professional enemy who have made sure one way or the other the Taliban doesn't get real SAMs into its hands, and in any case knows how to protect itself from the darn things. Also, upwards of 200,000 Afghans were determined to kill the invaders or go down fighting; the fighting core of the Taliban is much, much smaller, and whatever people may say, the Americans/West are not the Soviets. They are doing their darnest to help the Afghans, and not to wipe them out in the racist way the Soviets operated.
At any rate, the Taliban turned on Pakistan in full force somewhere around 2006. You can argue these dates because to a large extent dating the start of these things is to a large extent a subjective exercise, but again, the exact date is unimportant. And step by step the Taliban began allying with Pakistani fundamentalists of every stripe. To the extent that now, as Bill Roggio explained to the Editor the other day, almost every jihadi group of every persuasion is working together.

To be continued April 24, 2009

0230 GMT April 22, 2009

We didn't update yesterday due to (a) principal freaking out and refusing to give Editor a reference so he can go to a district where he can have the same health insurance as he has had for the last 20 years (Mrs. R dropped him from her insurance though it doesn't save a dime), (b) Editor on phone with lawyers having to do with aforesaid Mrs. R., (c) school staff members in crisis so had to stay late, (d) graduate class paper overdue, (e) kid's car not starting, and (f) a leak somewhere in the basement. All had to be coped with in four hours. Today was almost as bad. Short news update, we will continue Pakistan on April 23, 2009.

US troops shifting directly to Afghanistan from Iraq These are troops who have been in Iraq for a short time and are being drawn down for the Afghanistan surge. http://rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=268132&D=2009-04-21&SO=&HC=1 for a nice AP story.
Sri Lanka civilians escape from LTTE insurgents - at least 50,000 with the number climbing. The insurgents are now confined to less than 10 square kilometers and presumably could not continue coercing the civilians to stay. Both the civilians and the aid workers who have been helping them survive are in pitiful condition. If Sri Lanka does manage to get a couple of rebel leaders alive, these gents need to be sent to the Hague for using civilians as human shields - and for months. Of course, given the recent record where one leader after another goes down with guns blazing, its doubtful anyone of significance will be captured alive. We think the rebels are war criminals, but no one can deny they are probably the bravest fighters on the global scene today.
Somali pirate arrives in US and some American civil rights groups are worried that with the "hysteria" over hijacking, he might not receive a fair trial. Below are extracts from the Times of London story:
"Court papers revealed that Mr Muse, who in previous reports had been identified as Abduhl Wal-i-Musi, fired a shot at Captain Phillips to force him to take $30,000 from the ship’s safe, and distributed some of the money to the other pirates.
The Maersk Alabama crew later overpowered him and stabbed him with an ice pick, before taking him prisoner to convince the pirate gang to leave the ship.
During the stand-off on the ship Mr Muse reportedly told the second mate, Ken Quinn, of his ambition to visit the United States. Mr Quinn told CNN Radio that he replied: “Yeah, you’re probably going to go anyway — I don’t think you’re going to need my help.”
Mr Muse, who survived the rescue because he sought medical attention on a US warship, beamed with delight as he was met in New York by a host of TV cameras." http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article6143653.ece
Perhaps the civil right lot need to take a few trips in Somali waters and learn first hand what its like to face bunches of armed pirates who do not hesitate to use their guns to force ships to stop and allow themselves to be boarded, and who are higher than coots on drugs. A Philippine crew has been released after 5 months of captivity, but who cares, we have to worry about the rights of the pirates.
NATO warships have been capturing pirates left, right, and center - and releasing them because of "jurisdictional" questions. We wonder what degree of illiteracy is required to become a NATO official. The Law of the Sea says very clearly ALL nations have jurisdiction over ANY pirate ANYWHERE on the high seas (i.e., outside territorial waters). So clearly said NATO officials cannot read. Either that or they are cowards, poltroons, and morons. Or both.
What self-respecting pirate is going to quit when all that he risks is losing his $100 AK-47, and when he is quickly returned home, where he simply has to pick up another weapon and try again.
Incidentally, after a lull earlier this year the pirates have been in hijack heaven: at last report a ship was hijacked off the Seychelles. So while NATO officials are nervously wondering if their pompadours are going to get displaced by a hair if they actually have to act, the pirates are drawing the correct business lesson: potential gain: $2-million ransom in a country where per capita is probably less than $500; potential loss, $100 for a new AK-47.

0230 GMT April 20, 2009

Why the US is not, and will not, get anywhere in Pakistan - II

Editor had hoped to finish this off today, but got caught wrong-footed on his own college homework and now has only 30 minutes. Rushing this will be no point because readers to know in more detail the complexities of the Pakistan situation.

4. Pakistan and Strategic Depth 1947-48 and 1965 had been local wars. The first saw fighting confined solely to Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh, the state loosely referred to as "Kashmir". 1965 was all about Kashmir: India attacked into Pakistani Kashmir only to get behind the infiltrators, India did not attempt to keep its gains for all that it has legal claim to all of JKL. Pakistani regulars attack Indian positions in Jammu only when the Indian offensive was about to succeed, to relieve pressure on Kashmir. And India attacked across the international border only to relieve pressure on Jammu. This was not supposed to be an all-out war, and it wasnt. Both sides gave back their gains.
1971, however, was different. India planned to cut West Pakistan in two as a way of totally defeating its adversary with the plan of disarming it so that Pakistan would not be a threat for a generation. India's plan did not come off for reasons Editor has covered in a yet to-be-published book. But it did not escape Pakistan's attention that from India to the strategic north-south communications junction of Rahim Yar Khan is an effective ~100-km, two days for a very ambitious and capable commander, four days for a competent commander, and 7-10 days for an incompetent one - given India always has numerical and air superiority.
Were the Pakistanis inclined to forget the lessons of 1971, the Brasstacks Crisis of 1986-87 sharply reminded them. General Sundarji, the Indian army chief, planned to decisively cut Pakistan in two in the same place should Pakistan counter escalate to his planned offensive to seize the JKL Northern Areas. Well, that war didn't come off for reasons the Editor has written about (The War That Never Was), but now Pakistan was twice warned.
So strategic depth became an obsession. Pakistan is 500-km wide, but the Indus River Line is all that matters. Gain that line, 100-300 km deep depending on where you attack, and Pakistan cease to exist. We can discuss all this another time.
Pakistan decided it needed to look west for its strategic depth. Pakistani plans and objectives in the period 1980-1996 are not at all well documented, but based on information received (by the Editor and others) one of its objectives was to bring Afghanistan under its influence. Editor doesn't think the eventual aim was ALL of Afghanistan, but certainly it included the Pashtun East, and this would also take care of a number of other problems, such as Pakistan's own unruly Pushtuns.
India, of course, had no interest in what Pakistan was doing and as it has done for at least 30 centuries, shut its eyes and ears to anything happening west of the Indus.
Pakistan created the Taliban and used it to capture all of Afghanistan bar a small corner of the Northwest by 1996, by which time India the Sleeping Elephant opened one eye half a centimeter and decided to aid the Northern alliance in a low-key sort of way, and then went back to snoring soundly.
Of course problems arose when the Taliban took over Kabul, because Pushtun nationalism began to raise its head and the Taliban more and more began to do stuff whether Pakistan liked it or not. This was inevitable, but Pakistan still maintain a huge, huge influence over Afghanistan, a situation helped by the desperate poverty of the country. Pakistan itself was poor, but even 5-10-15 million dollars meant massive influence.
Okay, so fast forward to 2001. US arrives, drives Taliban back into Pakistan proper, and demands Pakistan destroy the Taliban.
At which point it all becomes a "Hello, America, this is Earth calling" situation, because the US could not provide - and still cannot - a single reason why destroying its own strategic gains simply to please the Americans who were here today and would be gone tomorrow.
Hello, America, this is Earth calling: simply telling Pakistan that you will bomb them back to 2000 BC is not a reason for Pakistan to defer to you. You cannot expect a true agreement on the basis of: "If you do everything against your self-interest, I promise not to kill you". Yes, the person threatened will do what you want from fear. But since he never agreed to the deal, he will do everything to wait you out, particularly when you are well-known for your extreme ADHD (actually the correct term nowadays is just ADD for what used to be thought two separate conditions; Editor has both in spades so he's well covered no matter what you call it.)
Two problems arose. One, India outflanked Pakistan in the new Afghanistan, creating a double nightmare. Not just was Pakistan's strategic depth taken away by the American occupation of Afghanistan, the growing Afghan-India-US alliance meant the Indians were also sitting on Pakistan's west flank, something that had never happened before. The Pakistanis were caught in the jaws of a giant set of pliers. Further, India immediately made clear it was going to expand into Central Asia - another long story, but one determined to make the Pakistanis unhappy.
Two - equally bad - far from quitting Afghanistan in a few short years as America has done everywhere in the world - so the world thinks, but that's because they dont understand American history, but that's another story - the Americans made very clear they were going to stay for at least 20 years, and maybe forever. Then people started remembering: OMG: the Americans came to Germany in 1944 and are still there in 2009; they came to Japan in 1945 and are still there. They came to Indochina in 1961 and ARE STILL THERE, just because the Vietnam-America partnership did not begin with the Americans defeating the Vietnamese makes no difference to the reality that 48 years later the Americans are snug as bugs in rugs in Indochina.
Had people known their American history, they might have realized that for 92 years American policy has been no one power should dominate Europe, and those that are really into history may realize that for 150 years America has been determined to keep others out of South America and as soon as it had the naval power, it pushed everyone out of the Atlantic (1890s) and then the Pacific (1930s). America is actually very, very consistent and long-viewed in its foreign policy.
Instead the Pakistanis foolishly used Afghanistan 1980-88, Iraq 1991, and Somalia 1993 as their models - as does most everyone else.
Brilliant thought: maybe Editor can make a living as a consultant explaining America to other countries. But who will hire him? America is a country everything thinks they know better than the Americans, whereas the truth is, America is completely inscrutable and closed to the understanding of foreigners. If we are to go by Bernard Fall, the famous chronicler of the Indochina Wars, who died too young - as do all the good people - the Vietnamese peasants may alone have realized just how inscrutable America really is. Another story for another time.

Continued April 21, 2009.

0230 GMT April 19, 2008

Why the US is not, and will not, get anywhere in Pakistan - I

Instinct is a great quality to possess if you know WHY your instinct is saying what it is. It is a disturbing quality to possess if you cannot explain why your instinct is saying what it is.
Around 2003, Editor began thinking something was very seriously wrong with the US approach to Pakistan and the approach would not work. Its taken six more years for Editor to realize why. And the reason its taken him so long is that he left South Asia in 1989, and very quickly reverted to his old way of thinking, which was American. When Editor went back to South Asia in 1970, he foundered for donkey's years because he thought like an American. But the time he started thinking like a South Asian, it was time to return to the US, and it required very little time to go back - with huge sighs of relief - to the American way of thought, which is much simpler.
So its perhaps excusable it taken six years to put oneself back into the thinking: "Suppose I was born and bred in Pakistan, how would I look at the US approach to my country?". If you want to know what your adversary will do next you have to become your adversary, and while Indians share an ethnicity with Pakistanis, it doesn't automatically follow they can think like their adversary. Editor's most violent, virulent, and long lasting feuds in India concerned (a) his criticism of the Indians for not understanding a horse feather about America while arrogantly thinking they knew everything, and (b) his criticism of the Indians for not understanding our part of the action-reaction cycle that has bedeviled the two countries since 1947.
So he understands its human nature to find it difficult to walk a mile in the other's shoes, particularly when you and he have been bashing each other decade after decade.
When you read this, please know there is no intent to put down anyone, US, Pakistani, India or whoever; nor is there any intent to say: "I'm so smart, I know and you don't." This is not about the US or India, its about Pakistan, its solely an attempt to look at things from Pakistan's side as a key to understand why US is not getting anywhere. So here goes.
1. US has always had a colonial master relationship with Pakistan The Pakistanis know how to keep the White Man happy - South Asians had plenty of experience for three centuries before independence. So Pakistanis will salute in manly, soldierly fashion and say: "Ji Hazoor" and Americans will shake hands in manly fashion and assume the deal is done. "Ji Hazoor" is said to mean "Yes Sir", but like any phrase in one language, its difficult to fully capture its flavor in another. It has overtones of deliberately insulting servility, said with a straight face so that the "superior" cannot say: "Are you mocking me?" whereas had it been the Brits and not the Yanks, the Brits would have known they were being mocked. The phrase has clear connotations of "You are a complete ass, but you have the power and I don't, so I'm going along with you, showing you "respect", but believe me, first chance I get, I'll cut you a new rectum, and do is so skillfully, you wont even know what I've done".
As with any master-servant relationship based on force - force of money or force of guns - the US-Pakistan relationship has the Pakistanis doing absolutely the minimum they can and getting away with the maximum they can. They are constantly pushing the Americans and when they are caught, the Pakistanis do a quick assessment and say: "Is this the time I can say FO to this bastich, or do I give him a grin to say "hey boss, you got me, but you can't blame a man for trying. I promise to be straight from now on, no more trying to take advantage of you."" And of course the Pakistanis, the very next moment, are trying - for the millionth time - to see what little they can get away doing while extracting the maximum benefit from the Americans.
2. This phase of Pakistan-US relations did not start under auspicious stars When the Americans came to Pakistan in September 2001, it was on very different terms than in 1954 and 1980. First time around US had to treat Pakistan as a sovereign nation and woo it as an ally, even though the power disparity between the two was incomprehensible. When US came the next time, it was as equals, you and us are going to fight this jihad together and we're going to give you the respect due to a full partner. But the third time was very different. US came storming in, not shouting, but very, very cold and calm, saying: "You are the scum of the earth, and should you "choose" not to "cooperate", we will blow you off the face of the earth with less thought than we'd employ before crushing an ant. Live or die, its your choice, and believe us, its a matter of complete indifference to us if you chose to die."
(Yes, we know in Revisionist History the Americans are not supposed to have said this, but you know, when it comes to "diplomacy" the Americans can be as shameless liars as anyone else. The threat was made not once, but multiple times just in case the Pakistanis didn't get it the first time.)
So, people, suppose the tables were turned, and Pakistan had the power while the US had none, would you assume that the working relationship between the two would be smooth? Are we wrong to suppose that day and night the Americans would be working to provide the Pakistanis with that second rectum? We don't think so.
3. At first the Pakistanis cooperated not because they loved the Americans and were eager volunteers in the GWOT, but because they had absolutely no choice. Americans love to think of themselves as kind, humane people who want the best for everyone, but readers, if you are American, disabuse yourself of the notion that other countries see you that way. Americans have a reputation for totally indifferent brutal ruthlessness and when it comes to killing, there is no race on earth that can match them for unemotional cruelty and disregard for other people's lives. This is because when the Americans are caught in the grip of war, they tend to a moral view of themselves as right and the adversary as wrong. The Pakistani leaders were absolutely right to believe US would send them back to the Stone Age, because after 9/11 the US embarked on a moral crusade, and it was so incensed it would have followed through on its threat.
(Why the US was treating the Pakistanis this way is another story for another time.)
Moreover, the Pakistanis had perhaps 10,000 troops and several senior officers with the Taliban at the time the US invaded Afghanistan, and the US had them trapped in the north, all escape routes blocked. To get a vehicle convoy onto any road was a one way ticket to death, because the US reconnaissance, control, and air firepower superiority was so extreme that no one on a road lived but by the grace of the Americans. You had only to witness the B-52s tearing up the Afghan mountains to understand the Americans weren't kidding. 10-20 B-52 strikes and those 10,000 Pakistani troops would have been shredded so small their remains could not be identified. Please don't doubt this: the North Vietnamese still list up to 800,000 soldiers as missing, and its likely the majority of them died in B-52 strikes against the Ho Chi Minh Trail. (This is one reason the Vietnamese get so angry when the Americans come to beat them up over a thousand missing. Another story.) Until the MRLS warhead with multiple armor destroying charges came along, the closest you could get to the effect of tactical nuclear strikes was a 3-ship B-52 strike dropping 90 tons of 750-lb bombs.
The Pakistanis got their men out of the north, and the US didnt wipe out Pakistan as a civilized nation.
But now comes the hard part for Americans to understand.
The Pakistanis bowed to the American hurricane because it was bend or die. But that did not mean for a moment the US had broken their pride or their resolution or changed their plan. Any inhabitant of the old North West India encompassing the modern day provinces and states of the NWFP, Multan, West and East Punjab, Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi and Western Uttar Pradesh knows that for 30 centuries, probably even for 50, extreme storms have swept out of Central Asia and have been checked not because the Indians fought to the last round and the last man, but because they bent to the storm and absorbed the invaders like water sucked up in a giant sponge.
There is no immovable object meeting irresistible force. The North West Indian motto is: "He who fights and runs away lives to fight another day". This is the sole reason India survives whereas countless civilizations have gone into history's trash can.
The Pakistanis bided their time, cooperated minimally with the Americans, and patiently plotted their return. And in the Year of Our Lord 2009, the Pakistanis have returned.

To be continued April 20, 2009

0230 GMT April 18, 2009

Does Head Office Really Care About Soldiers At The Front? The US Army has developed new lightweight armor that can cut a soldier's combat load by 20-lbs. When you're going up-mountain and down-mountain all day long in Afghanistan, loaded with up to 130-lbs of equipment, twenty pounds make a big difference.

So you'd think the Army would be doing everything possible to get this armor into Afghanistan. So you'd think wrong. Read http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/18/world/18military.html?_r=1&ref=global-home

What we find truly pathetic is the Army's excuse that it cannot test the armor in the field until its absolutely sure the new is as survivable as with the old armor. We're talking test here, not large scale issue.

Perhaps the Army needs to be told is the only way you're going to be 100% sure about a soldier's survivability is to strap him to his bed at all time back in the US. Or to enclose him in, say, an M-1 tank.

Incredible as it may seem to the US Army, war is not about surviving unhurt. Its about hurting the other guy more than he hurts you. When the enemy is carrying may be 20-30 lbs at most, and our guys are carrying 100-130 pounds, who is going to be more mobile?

Editor has spent many years in the mountains. It doesn't matter how big you are and how tough you are, you cannot carry more than 60-lbs and still be effective. Sixty pounds is tops, assuming your guys are 180-lbs. If they're 150-lbs, they shouldn't carry more than 50-lbs tops.

If US infantry is hauling loads of 100-lbs and up in the mountains, we assure our readers there is a huge cost in effectiveness. How many hours does US Army think infantry can walk under those kind of loads, particularly in hot weather? How fast can they get up-mountain or down-mountain (which is much more dangerous for the human skeleton than climbing) if they need to change their tactical position? How long can they chase after enemy fighters carrying a quarter of the load - and who, after all, are born and bred in the mountains?

We keep hearing about the high percentage of men who have to leave the military because of serious injuries caused by carrying too heavy loads for too long. As it is the mountains are no place for big men. Its no coincidence that Indian troops from the mountains are the shortest and lightest of Indian recruits. If on top of being large and heavy you have to carry immense loads that porters would have trouble with leave alone infantry, the deck is stacked against you. The enemy is going to appear and disappear as he wants and there's nothing you can do about it.

This armor thing in microcosm is symptomatic about the US military in general. Remember the MPV thing? Head Office was simply not bothered that troops were being blown up left, right, and center in Iraq, the military went through its 15 levels of decision-making before anyone is allowed to go take a leak, and as for time, military was living in a universe where time is not a moving dimension.

Look, people. This is year Eight in Afghanistan. If US military cant get something simple like body armor/personal load right in eight years, then what hope is there for the military?

0230 GMT April 17, 2009

Frontpage still acting up, turning paras into Times Roman. Short update, sorry.

Taliban 100-km from Islamabad with the fall of Buner District, Bill Roggio of Long War Journal reminds us. He also has the cheery news that the man who led the Red Mosque uprising in the heart of Islamabad and tried to impose religious law in the nation's capital has been released from 2 years of house arrest. He will preach at the mosque today. Dawn if Karachi quotes him as saying he doesn't want revenge. That shows how repentant he is. The way things are going, he wont need to look for revenge. If/when Islamabad falls to the Taliban this man will get what he wanted all along.

Meanwhile, please read this article from the New York Times on how the Taliban used tensions between the feudal landowners and the have nots to their advantage. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/17/world/asia/17pstan.html?_r=1&ref=global-home We've been a bit puzzled lately how exactly the Taliban plans to extend itself into the Punjab and Sindh - they have made no inroads into Sindh because your average Sindhi, particularly in Karachi, is looking to get ahead and is not an idealog. Neither of the heartland provinces have the fanatic believes of the Frontier people.

This article explains everything, because Pakistan remains a very feudal culture. The gap between the rural haves and have nots is enormous, and its a very thin slice of people at the top that have to be taken down.

Trust the Taliban to convert their quest for theocratic dominance to cleverly hit on the one issue that can rip Punjab and Sind apart. These fellows are real revolutionaries, which is why fighting them is not easy.

US continues blowing smoke on DPRK with more threats about how the US will do this that and the other, but DPRK shouldn't pull out of the 6-nation talks. How can the US threats have any credibility? DPRK has already asked UN inspectors to leave and says it will reactivate its plutonium reactor. The reason for this temper tantrum? US etc criticized DPRK's missile launch.

Look people, can the US get one simple thing clear? It is DPRK's right to build bombs and missiles. DPRK is a sovereign country. What gives US etc the right to "punish" the country for its acts? No one has the right to "punish" DPRK, it is not an American colony.

But what the US does have to the right to do is say: "We are threatened by the DPRK's missiles and bombs - which they have a perfect right to build - and which we have a perfect right to destroy in the interests of our national security.

Washington needs to stop this poodle yapping. It is degrading, humiliating, and making a laughing stock of the US overseas. What US needs to do is blow the DPRK's missile sites, weapons labs, and reactor to smithereens, and do it without boasting, bravado, and trash talk.

Where the US can punish is Somali, whose people are committing crimes. But we dont see the US doing anything: what the plan, Washington, concerning the second attack on an American crew?

Oh, sorry: please excuse our impertinence in asking when you've told us so many times what the plan is: yap, yap, yap.

0230 GMT April 16, 2009

Sorry for the short update: FrontPage is acting up. Its insisting on converted the Arial 10 template to Times Roman 12 with every bullet point and its tiresome to keep correcting.

"There there, India will attack, don't you worry" That was the soothing gist of a message from Mandeep Bajwa after he read the Editor's rant of yesterday. India just wants the election to pass smoothly, and it will do the needful after that. Why, even before/during the election should Pakistan be foolish, India will give a fitting reply.

Mandeep, as a young person, has a protective attitude towards the Editor who he regards as a revered old figure dating from pre-Independence times. So he's trying to get the Editor's blood pressure by saying it will be okay.

Except its not okay. India is not going to do anything because it can quite easily contain Pakistani infiltration. That India is under attack is of no consequence to the nation's "leaders". If we can contain Pakistan, why upset things by retaliating and retaliating once and for all.

To all those Indian readers who wrote in to say: "We hope you're right and that India will stand tall,", Editor tenders his apologies. His enthusiasm has once again led him astray. Just because the Indians were roaring like lions and saying: "I'm say it now and I'm saying it loud, I'm a cow and I'm proud", the Editor got all excited and thought: "They've finally been pushed too far, now Pakistan will see the fun." Wrong. India has not been pushed too far.

To all those Indian readers who wrote in to say: "Come on, Editor, be reasonable, you know we don't want to disturb the dust, we aren't going to do a thing," Editor says: you're right, Editor was wrong. Abject apologies.

Editor has only one excuse: he's 70% deaf. What he thought was the roaring of lions from across the oceans was actually the braying of donkeys. sorry about that.

Somalia Pirates Attack US Manned Ship Because They're "Angry" at the way their fellow pirates were treated, i.e., converted into tasty snacks for sharks. Pirates fired a few RPGs and rifle rounds at the ship.

Come, come my children. Might that you were unable to board because the ship spotted you and immediately went into defensive mode have something to do with your anger? Might the Bainbridge heaving over the horizon have done something to dissuade you from further violence?

A word of advice, my little chickadees. You were not angry. You were throwing a little Pre-K hissy-fit. When The Man comes looking for you with an AC-130, then you'll know what anger is about.

Take Great Grandma Ravi's advice: give up piracy and take up knitting. Improves life expectancy.

0230 GMT April 15, 2009

India Wimp Heart

First, read this report from Mandeep Bajwa
Its no secret that the PA has been sending in serving/retired soldiers (some from the SSG) to bolster the insurgency in Kashmir. There's a sea-change in the situation there. The recent conduct of elections with a high turn-out is a testimony to the improved atmosphere. More and more Kashmiris are coming forward to give information about the whereabouts of insurgents particularly if they are foreign mercenaries who are hated for their cruelty, ruthlessness, venality and sexual exploitation of women. The recent infiltrations are an attempt to
- Keep the pot boiling in the Valley
- Disrupt the elections
- Bolster the indigenous militants and increase their efforts at which they seem to be failing
- Keep the insurgency on the world's radars.
- Force India to induct more troops by thinning out from other sectors particularly along the LOC
- Cause attrition
- Defeat the efforts of the newly-sworn in J&K Govt to ensure development and introduce a political dimension to the problem
The success of the IA in ambushing infiltrators very close to their entry positions points to the fact of greater and better intelligence. Penetration of Pakistani intelligence responsible for pushing in terrorists across the LOC may be responsible for this upsurge. While the Indian Army has reinforced the Valley to foil infiltration and movement of militants within the State, it also retains an increased offensive capacity in several sectors which should cause concern in PA quarters.
Later yesterday Mandeep sent an amplification: "The Indians are raring to go. My belief is that any misadventure by Pakistan during the elections will invite swift and punitive retaliation. Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi - the iron's really entered their souls !"

Now lets analyze Mandeep's annotated report the gist of which we have confirmed with other sources. We want to be clear we never need to confirm what he says with others because generally he is the first source, but because of the seriousness of the situation, entirely for the sake of our readers, who often without realizing where the information in the blog comes from say "And what do you know? Anyone can write a blog," we decided to do so.
Do readers remember the other day when the Editor was raving and ranting about Pakistani infiltration and then stopped because he said he had to be careful what he said, given the seriousness of the situation?
Well, he stopped because he got a message from someone who said something and the Editor got this terrible premonition that for all the talk and all the reinforcement and so on the Indians were going to wimp out for Ten Zillionth Time.
His premonition was correct. India has wimped out. There will be no war unless the Pakistanis are fabulously, incredibly, unbelievably stupid. Of course, you cannot rule that out, because the Pakistani national security leadership has shown repeatedly over sixty years it is composed of morons.
So is the Indian security leadership, so what's the difference? See, we in India have educated morons. Take 10 of the our national security leaders, lead them to a latrine, and tell them to clean it, after 10 years of discussion they'd figure out what they'd have to do - and do a lousy job. Take the Pakistani national security morons, on the other hand, and ten years later they still wouldn't have figured out what to do with the broom, mop, and bucket.
Please look at Mandeep's post once again. Retired and serving Pakistan Army personnel are infiltrating India. Editor doesn't know what the Indians call it. Were it happening to the Americans, we know what they'd call it. They'd call it an act of war, and they'd do something about it. Like go whack the other guy.
India on the other hand has simply issued a threat: "You're attacking us, we want you to know that should you try something during the election, we're going to whack you."
Why should the Pakistanis believe the threat? This is, from where they are sitting, just the usual threat. India hasn't done a darn thing in 22 years of the Kashmir insurgency. why should it do so now?
And suppose the Pakistanis decide not to do something during elections - after all, it is theoretically possible they can have a few seconds of lucidity in 62-years of conflict with India. So suppose they just continue with the low-level stuff. What is India going to do something? Right now, please don't hold your breath.
4 drugged out teenagers hijacked an American merchant crew off Somalia. The Americans sent three warships after the pirates and killed three of them with three rounds. The fourth pirate they have in custody.
Meanwhile, 250 infiltrators in 8 parties have entered India. 400 more are waiting to infiltrate. Betcha behind them there's more. These gentlemen want to bring to secular, democratic India the benefits of their religious beliefs which might have been appropriate five centuries ago. What's the Indian government doing while Indian soldiers are dying battling these invaders? Well, please don't ask: we are limited by the rules of the blog as to what language we can use.
Truthfully, for 20 years the Editor has not missed India He hasn't been back once. Of course, he misses his home and home town. But never enough to even think seriously of saving the money and taking leave to actually make a trip. And why go home? There is no more home, he doesn't have a place to go to. Frodo Baggins said it well: You can't go home again.
But all day after getting Mandeep's post, the Editor has been seething, and again and again lamenting he has neither money nor leave to go home. You see, the mild insults he is delivering in this blog will go entirely unnoticed. No one from the Indian press reads his blog, not even his so-called friends. No one from the Indian establishment reads it. What the Editor really, really, really wants to do is go home with a nice iron rod to use on his leaders, and you know it isn't to stiffen their souls.

Its Official: Sharia in Malakand

Yesterday the Pakistan Parliament approved the right of the Taliban of Swat District in the North West Frontier Province to impose Sharia on everyone in Swat. Why do we say Malakand when Swat is only on part of the division? Because - no bets needed - now the Taliban have the official stamp of approval for Swat, they will get it for the other six districts - where they've already imposed Sharia.
No one voted for Sharia, there was no referendum, moreover by definition in a democracy you are not permitted to stage a vote that denies basic human rights to the people. The President of Pakistan wasted no time in signing the Parliament bill.
Anyone in DC still think the Pakistanis are going to fight the Taliban?

0230 GMT April 14, 2009

Buner District Falls to the Taliban A South Asian district is the equivalent of a county in the United States. Analyst Bill Roggio of Long War Journal had months ago colored Buner at under Taliban control because it was clear to him the Taliban could walk in at any time and take formal control.

Yesterday they did just that. They are now patrolling the entire district, they have seized the holiest shrine in the District and one of the holiest in Pakistan, and told the shrine caretakers to say away, and they are visiting mosques to tell the mullah of each what he is to preach.

Their formal takeover has taken less than 10 days and has been accomplished with just a few hundred men who said they had come in peace. What the Pakistan Government wasn't telling us, is that - to quote Dawn of Karachi - "... the Taliban assured them complete peace in case of no resistance..."

Many unfamiliar with the way the Taliban work were encouraged when in the initial phase the locals resisted the intruders and several Taliban were killed. The Pakistan Government encouraged the notion that Pakistanis were standing up to the Taliban. But what people did not realize was that the Taliban were so confident of taking Buner, they did not come with a posse to hunt the killers of their men. They walked in, talking of peace.

Its an interesting kind of peace, because not only have the locals made abject apologies for their foolishness in resisting, the Taliban are living in the houses of the resistance tribal leaders. This means the tribal leaders fled, but please do not doubt for a minute that wherever they are in Pakistan or Afghanistan, the Taliban will find them.

As for the Pakistan Government, this is what the District Coordination Officer has to say: ‘We have adopted policy of restraint as a slight mistake could derail the entire peace initiative launched by the government. These Taliban are peaceful and have till now not harmed any individual in the district.’

Dawn of Karachi says: "..the people here are averse to any military operation which they view would inflict more problems and devastation on the people."

How did Long War Journal know about Buner months ago? No prizes for guessing they knew because their contacts in the US military and elsewhere told them. We've been saying for a long time that the Americans in the field - military, intelligence, diplomatic - have known precisely what has been going down in Pakistan, but Head Office didn't want to hear the bad news. Well, Head Office now actually gets it.

The problem is, no one has any good options to suggest as to what is to be done. The people who have the most to lose from the advance of the Taliban are the Indians, and your Editor can assure you with 100% certainty that the Indians have absolutely no clue at all what they should they should do; in fact, if you have the bad taste to tell the Indians there is an evil storm coming, 99.9% will tell you to shut up. The Editor counts it as a victory that 0.1% will not tell you to shut up, because two years ago that denial figure was 100%.

Denial is the Indian way. We are NOT running down the Indians. There are very sound and understandable reasons why they stay in a state of denial not just till the last minute, but until they are in danger of being overrun. We'll explain it if anyone wants, but the history of Northwest India in particular for 30 centuries has been one crisis after another. The people are so traumatized that denial is the only way they can deal with looming crises. And particularly now, when for the first time Indians have started to do really well in economic, political, and administrative terms. Tens of millions of Indians are entering the middle class each year, and they are being replaced by equal numbers escaping abject poverty. India has actually started to function as a modern state - you have only to compare the story of the Delhi Metro with that of the Washington Metro and you'll see what we're saying. Indians have finally found recognition around the world and they have finally gotten the dignity that they wanted.

So along comes a Black Raven like your Editor cawing about ruin and destruction flowing towards India, who can blame the Indians for saying "for heaven's sake, someone get a shotgun and silence this evil messenger".

The Pakistan situation is not something the United States can handle by itself. It needs India as a dedicated partner and joint action. Increasingly it looks to the Editor this is not going to happen - events are happening so rapidly the Indians' ability to understand leave alone act has been overwhelmed.

For our part, we've already said what we think is the start of a solution: block all of Pakistan's frontiers and contain the problem in situ. Once that's done, we can take up next steps - and the Editor has a complete plan for the next 50-years.

But is anyone going to act - they may not agree with the Editor's plan but have they one of their own and are they willing to implement it?

Lets assess the chances of that happening.

The Editor believes the chances of the US and the Indians acting together in a sensible way to deal with the coming storm is less than the chances he will win Miss Universe.

In case anyone is confused about his chances of winning Miss Universe, please consider the following facts:

(a) The Editor is 5 feet 6 inches and weighs 190-punds. He is north of 65, bald, and wears -8 power specs. His details are 40-40-40. When he smiles, strong men flinch and women and children scream: he has been told he looks like a very fat, very greedy wolf contemplating his next tasty meal. He is 70% deaf and stutters. He never ever makes sense when he talks, unless you happen to be a child, in which case you understand him perfectly. He cannot walk across his classroom without crashing into inanimate objects - including his students - at least six times in 20-feet. He is so hairy his students like to pet his arm if he happens to put it anywhere near where they can reach.

(b) He has already told the Miss Universe organizers he has no problem appearing in a swimsuit, but he is not going to shave his legs.

You don't need to know a whole lot of math to know what is the likelihood Editor will win Miss Universe. In math they tell you probability cannot be greater than 1 or less than zero. But that's because no one has asked them to calculate what the odds are people are going to act to stop the Taliban. We've given you the clue: its less than the probability the Editor will win Miss Universe.

So, dear readers, that's your homework for tonight.

0230 GMT April 13, 2009

Congratulations to President Obama and the US Navy on rescuing the kidnapped US merchant captain. The rescue was flawless, and justice has been done: 3 of the 4 pirates are in heaven; we hope the fourth will be brought to the US for trial. The punishment the American criminal justice system imposes for crimes of violence is the closest thing to a living death, and we sincerely hope the prisoner gets at least 25 years.
With this one stroke, the President has boosted US prestige and credibility. Now, of course this doesn't make up for the non-action on DPRK. We are told the UN Security Council has agreed on the language of a statement. This news no doubt sets manly hearts everywhere fluttering, and no doubt sales of smelling salts will go through the roof, because so few of us will be able to take the excitement when the statement is issued. But what it does do is make the Euros (bar the French) look like boys in pink ballet tights, which truthfully they are.
The French have now twice shot pirates during rescues, and those taken alive have been/are dispatched to France to stand trial there. In the second rescue, a hostage was killed: after French commandos boarded the captured yacht, two pirates down below opened fire through the deck. In the return fire, it appears likely the hostage who was with the two was killed.
This is very sad, he was a young man with a wife and child and two guests - everyone else was rescued safely. But to be completely honest, this was NOT about the young man. It was about the nation of France.
The man had been warned by the French and coalitions navies about a gazillion times not to sail the infested waters on his family/friends' trip which was undertaken to protest materialism and capitalism. Not to worry, he is said to have replied, no one will harm us.
Well, all six were taken by pirates who are working on the materialistic and capitalist system as an extension of their thug careers. If the French had done nothing except tamely pay ransom as just about everyone else has done, they would be dishonoring their country and encouraging the criminals. Had the French Navy simply shrugged its Gallic shoulders and cynically said: "We warned monsieur, he refused our advice, now let him figure his way to freedom", the French government would have been reviled by its citizens.
It is NOT the business of the French Government to spend taxpayer money in negotiating the release of one of its foolish citizens who put five other innocent lives in danger. Since its unlikely the man had kidnap insurance, the French taxpayer would have ended up paying a few million, not to say the several millions required to arrange negotiations and keeping ships on watch and so on.
This way, the French Government has made very clear: touch our nationals and you will die.
And so has the US. Which is why we find exceedingly odd the moaning and whining that the US action will now make things more dangerous for future hostages.
So lets run through this. Gangs of kidnappers start seizing people in American cities. The police should do nothing to endanger the kidnappers because now there is a danger that a gang will panic and kill the hostage, whereas so far civilized discussions have always taken place and the hostage released for money. Those who are moaning about the US action need to explain to the rest of us: would you for one minute accept that the kidnappers seizing Americans from their homes - lets make the Latin American and Russian and Ukranian and Chinese gangs - should simply be paid off rather than risk the life of a single hostage?
We don't think so. So why is anyone objecting when Somali pirate gangs drug themselves to the gills, board ships by firing at the ships and the crews, threaten crews with violence if they don't cooperate, and tell the companies/countries unpleasant things will happen to the crew unless money is paid, and the US retaliates with force? "I used violence to capture my hostage, now if you use violence to save him, you are making things very bad for future hostages." We aren't making that up, by the way: several pirate leaders have said the same thing in "more sorrow than anger" terms, kindly uncles speaking to misbehaving youngsters.
The best way to stop anyone from engaging in criminal activity is to promise swift, drastic punishment. The French and the Americans have only done what police are supposed to do. And BTW, its true once they're drugged up the pirates don't know what they're doing. Isn't that an incredibly volatile and dangerous thing for the hostages, particularly when the pirates stay drugged?
Maybe now the pirates will think twice BEFORE getting drugged up.
Incidentally, isn't it time to bring back the Q-ships? Think of the fun when the pirates attack a fat merchantman and it turns out there's a SEAL team waiting for them?
Or is someone worried that the pirates will claim they were entrapped and will be acquitted and file claims against the US. Simple solution: Modified Singapore Rules. You're armed, you board a ship with the objective of capturing it, it doesn't matter what you intended or didn't intend, you get shot and fed to the sharks. Do we have to wait for a criminal to endanger our lives before we are permitted to retaliate.
PS: All you greens, kindly push the Q-Ship solution, the sharks need to eat too, you know.
Our Motto For The Day Save the Sharks; Kill A Pirate.

0230 GMT April 12, 2009

US Economy May Have Bottomed Out according to a wide range of indicators. The worry is that unemployment is going to continue to grow to;; ot reaches 10%+ - which is 16-17%+ on real terms, counting those who are being forced to work part-time for lack of full-time work and those who say they would look for work if they had any reasonable prospect of finding it. Generally this last group has given up after many years of unemployment.
President Obama is getting a bashing for DPRK and much as we like the gentleman, he deserves worse. The recent Sound and Fury before the DPRK launch and the whimpering after it is amazingly pathetic. Mr. Obama has made the US look verbose and weak because he has been verbose and weak, and we are going to see the consequences very quickly as some idiot nation or the other starts acting tough, convinced that all the US is good for is hot air. The cost of setting that nation right is inevitably going to be higher than the cost of shooting down the DPRK missile - or if people were unsure about success, of taking it out on its launch pad.
And talking about credibility...We hope the Government of India realizes it has ZERO credibility with the Pakistani jihadis. India has threatened action so many times and done nothing that we doubt the jihadis give the Indian Government a second thought.
Given the zero credibility, we hope the Indians realize that cosmetic gestures like air strikes or short raids are not going to make the cut. India has to act with maximum violence.
One of the options that is under consideration and for which the Army has recently trained is the Haji Pir bulge. In the 1965 War India took the Haji Pir pass (Lt. Colonel Ranjit Singh Dayal heading a parachute battalion) but India gave it back after the ceasefire. Retaking the pass would greatly shorten India's defense line because India would regain direct communications between Punch and Uri. Otherwise, with a Pakistani fist between the two towns, India is vulnerable to two-front attacks that make the defense of Punch costly.
This operation, if it happens, will require induction of two divisions, one on each side of the pass, to make a pincer attack while 25 Division (Punch) and 19 Division (Uri) attack straight west to tie down Pakistan 12 Division and pull in its X Corps reserve, 19 Division. But if the operation is not done right smart, the next thing that's going to happen is that Pakistan 7 and 9 Divisions are going to arrive and India will lose the advantage of numbers and the initiative. This is very rough territory, and there is a limit to how many troops India can concentrate. Pakistan is far less constrained as it is operating from the plains, though counter-attacking up-mountain is not a Fun Thing.
Which - entirely by the way - is one the more remarkable things about India's counter-offensive in the Kargil War 1999: it was all up mountain and absolutely brutal going. Of course, if the Pakistanis hadn't funked and had reinforce the Northern Light Infantry with two brigades, as well as attacked with a division on the Shingo River axis, India could easily have required 6-9 months to retake their lost territory. But none of that diminishes the Indian victory in any way. It's clear the Pakistanis did not anticipate the Indians would go up mountain in such force and with such determination.
We're giving readers some idea of the difficulties because we don't want people to think we're just another bunch of armchair generals. Having studied the problem again and again for 20 years, the Editor can honestly say he appreciate the difficulties and complications and risks of an Indian offensive in Kashmir.
But - that said - at some point an army has to say: "Okay, its gonna be very tough, but we're going to impose our will on the adversary and win." Otherwise you can talk yourself into doing nothing and losing by default.
One of the interesting things about Germany and the Second World War is that Hitler's generals at every stage kept telling him why things couldn't be done. That was one reason he took a fancy to generals like Guderian, who told it COULD be done. And Hitler's instincts were so supernaturally good, he almost won all Europe. But then he got cocky - always happens, doesn't it? - and refused to listen to his generals when they were right.
India does not have its Hitler (political a very good thing, militarily a very bad thing) or even its Churchill, and it certainly does not have anything like the two dozen or more absolutely superb German generals who fought the war for Hitler.
Which may be why India has gone nowhere since 1947, barring a short victory in Bangladesh which remained unexploited and which has created 40 years of headaches for India in the Northeast.
Mutter, complain, grumble, snipe. That's all the Editor can do now.
Letter from Richard (Retd USAF) on India-Pakistan
Read your article on India reinforcing Kashmir and that you regarded that as unusual.
First off, the Army generals are correct in their "view" of the air force getting scattered groups wiped out. If you are going to do that you need the infantry to go in and "dig" them out of the holes/bunker that they'll hide in when the bombs and missiles arrive (Sorry, my AF brethren, but we are a SUPPORT force for the folks on the ground. They take and hold ground, aircraft do not!).
I find their time table of 72 hours to get things done likely to be optimistic. More likely, to get the biggest part of the op. done, you will be looking at at least three times that amount of time.
That the officers have suddenly gone silent isn't a good sign, as you have noted. It will be even more worrisome if the politicals have done the same. Have they?
Is there any indication that the Indian military is moving troops and gear in in other places along the India/Pak. border? If that is happening then there is the increased chance that the Kashmir events are part of an even bigger operation. If Kashmir is the only place this is happening then look to it being the raid/search and destroy operation. Could be the military and political types noted the "freeze up" of the Pakistani military and government and plan to take advantage of it, thinking they can get in, get it done, and get out before someone (If anyone.) has time to get to react. I do note that Islamabad is pretty close to Kashmir. If the Pak. military doesn't move against an Indian cross border operation is it possible that they may decide/get the "go ahead!" to roll west and take the city and territory around it? If the Indian military is reinforcing other points on the border I see an increased likelihood of this happening. Again, with Pakistan "frozen", it could be regarded as the best time to do this to get it done with, hopefully, a minimum of resistance.
What about the atomics Pak. has if it is a general invasion? Won't they use them? Doesn't that concern India?" Pakistan doesn't have that many at this time, and what they have isn't all that reliable. Gamble is a] one or more fast raids to capture the storage site(s) and/or b] take the few "hits" that occur and get on with things. Again, if the gov. and military of Pak. can't/won't "decide" on using them then so much the better for India.
What about the Americans? What will they think and/or say?
If it's a cross border raid then, likely, there won't be much (Beyond "Will you guys quit that!" [said in high toned, squeaky voice.]) said. If things get "bigger" (like a general invasion) then your guess is as good as mine. Could be anything from the "noises" of resolutions and statements to who knows what (I'd bet on the "noises" and not much more. My best "feel" is that the US doesn't regard Pak. as that good an ally/"bet" and that they wouldn't be all that upset if India reabsorbed most of Pak. back into India. Maybe this is part of the reason for the reinforcement of Afghanistan by the US? If a general invasion occurs they take the opportunity to cross border raid in a big way in Taliban areas of Pak.?).
As to Washingtoons being out of ideas other then trying to get Pak. to seriously battle the Taliban I doubt that will change much if at all.
It's like "Peace in the Middle East!". All talk and "noise" but, truthfully, almost everyone knows it's a waste to time!
Despite the election Obama I see the continuation of W. Bush policy in the area for the foreseeable future. Obama and "crew" will change words and a few superficial things but, other then that, George W. and bunch may as well still be in charge.

0230 GMT April 11, 2009

Pakistan Again

Today the Editor is one unhappy camper All sorts of news came in yesterday, and none of it good. The first crisis that the Editor followed was Suez 1956, and ever since then he's noticed there's a point at which things stop making sense. And that is a bad sign, because it means that the actors in a crisis are getting at effect of the crisis instead of controlling it. Editor sincerely hopes his alarms are going off prematurely, but which ever way he looks at it, matters are rapidly going from bad to worse.
Indian Army heavily reinforcing Kashmir Four days ago we got an email from someone who knows the senior army brass, having grown up with the current batch, same schools and colleges, that sort of thing. He said something weird was happening because of a sudden his senior officer friends were zipping their lips. It took us till today to get a hold of Mandeep Singh Bajwa - looks like he's been off somewhere he isn't telling, and he told us there is a major reinforcement of Kashmir underway.
The Indian army is pulling troops out of Ladakh and Jammu provinces and redeploying them to Kashmir; reinforcements from outside the theatre are starting to come in.
Needless to say, this is absolutely Not A Good Thing. The Indians have so many troops in Kashmir as a normal thing there is no need to bring in reinforcements just because the Pakistanis have started infiltrating again.
If the army is reinforcing, its because its getting ready for something. That something could be as small as a Special Force strike across the Line of Control against terror camps in Kashmir, but it could also be a major 72-hour air-land operation on a large scale, with the army prepared for Pakistani escalation all the way to total war.
Mandeep did not have a list of the reinforcements as yet, but we have to tell our readers if the balloon is going to go up, we at Orbat will not be able to share information with readers. Both Mandeep and Editor are Indian citizens; if there's trouble you can understand we cannot talk about anything that's not in the papers or that the military clears.
Editor's mood was definitely not improved when he talked to someone else who acted a bit surprised the Editor was surprised about the Kashmir news, until the Editor grouchily reminded said person he was retired and 15,000-km away, and had a day job and a mortgage and debts up the waazoo, to say nothing about the search for affordable Deconamine - more on this last another time. This person matter of factly said there's a big row between the Indian Army and the Indian Air Force as to who is going to be the first across the Line of Control. The IAF is saying an air offensive has the least risk and is the fastest to get results. The Indian Army is saying no air force ever did anything except knock holes in the ground if we're talking insurgents, and the only way to do things is for several brigades to cross the border and destroy anything that looks like a camp.
Next came a worrying conversation with Bill Roggio of Long War Journal. Editor asked Mandeep what was the news from Buner District. He said Buner was a gonner, the Pakistan Army has made clear its not going to fight for Buner. Editor got quite irate - his taxes are going to the Pakistan Army same as everyone else, and so when is the Pakistan army going to fight? Mandeep repeated what he's been saying for a year: they're not going to fight the insurgents, period.
So back to Mr. Roggio. When Editor told him about this conversation, he calmly said he knew Buner was a gonner a while ago. Remember Mr. Roggio is in close touch with US CENTCOM, which means he knew about Buner before the Editor from CENTCOM. Editor is never upset at being scooped by Young People, he does his best to encourage the new generations of analysts. What made him hit the roof is that if CENTCOM said some weeks ago "Bye Bye Buner", then what's with the WashingToons? Why is Toon Town still pretending that it can get the Pakistanis to fight the insurgents? Is it so badly out of ideas that its paralyzed? This is Not A Good Sign.
Then came more alarming news from Mandeep He said Islamabad is shut down because a Taliban hit squad is loose in the capital. So what's the big deal, asked the Editor, isn't this now a weekly ritual, attack Islamabad, then attack Lahore, then go back to Islamabad? Mandeep said the word is this is not just a hit squad. The Taliban have been openly saying they're going to take Islamabad - that's in the local papers, so Editor knew, but thought it was rhetoric. Not so, said Mandeep. The guessing is they are preparing to make a major demonstration, hold an area for some time before melting away, and warning of more attacks to keep the Pakistan Government's nerves shot to heck. Part of their usual psychological warfare tactics. Remember, when the Taliban entered Buner it was with just a few men who said they'd come in peace to talk about Sharia law in the district, and the next thing we know, people are betting on the day Buner will fall to the Taliban.
So the Editor, who was very, very irate by now said to Mandeep: "Well, the Pakistan army will HAVE to fight now, if the Taliban are threatening to take Islamabad. Its the national capital, and GHQ is just 30 kms away." Mandeep gave a chuckle and said: "Nope. I said they're not going to fight".
"Then Islamabad is also on the Bye Bye list," said the Editor, "and if the national capital falls its all over." Mandeep comfortingly told the editor he didn't think Islamabad was going to fall now, the Taliban are going to hit Peshawar and then Islamabad. They're just trying to scare the Government to death re. Islamabad, to make it easier for themselves, sort of like Chengiz Khan. if Mandeep thought the Editor was comforted, he was mistaken. The NWFP is a fifth of Pakistan, if Peshawar falls, its bye bye the whole NWFP, not just the tribal zones. Of course people like Mr. Roggio have been saying for months that the battle for the NWFP is over, we have to look at when West Punjab falls. But what's bothering the Editor is the speed with which everything is happening. If you followed the 1994-96 Taliban/Pakistan campaign to overrun in Afghanistan, you'll know what the Editor is saying. Countries are supposed to fight for their survival, not just lay down and die.
As if that was not bad enough Editor spoke to an American gentleman who is pretty cozy with the Pakistanis and the WashingToons aka the US Government. He bluntly told Editor that it's not a question of why is the Pakistan army not fighting. He says they have absolutely no clue what to do, and the civilian government is even more clueless. Think France 1940.
Well, the Editor does NOT want to think France 1940 because the first part of the year was unbelievably crazy: the French spent their time violently arguing with each other and undercutting each other rather than getting ready for the inevitable German invasion. One reason the French imploded is they felt so helpless after the amazingly rapid fall of Poland to German panzer troops, ALL they could do is fight with each other. This is just another defining characteristic of countries about to go down.
Further, said this gentleman, Mr. Holbrooke is aware his diplomatic career is finished. This flabbergasted the Editor. After all, he knew Mr. Holbrooke wasn't going to succeed, but the man has been in action just a few weeks, and if someone so arrogant is already hearing the Bell Toll for him, then the situation is just not bad, the Fat Lady is getting up to sing. The calm way in which the gentleman was saying this was more worrying than the news, because it was kind of reminding the Editor that he's the last to know anything.
Does It Get Worse? Yes it does. But the Editor has to think things through before he speaks next. Its fine to rave and rant when things are in no real danger of blowing up. But if they are going to blow up, then even us ravers and ranters have to be careful what we say.
Out that down as one more sign she's gonna blow: since when does the Editor think before speaking?

0230 GMT April 10, 2009

Taliban Gain In Buner District of the NWFP says Dawn of Karachi. They have gained control of most of a valley and are now 4-km from the District HQ. There is no large-scale fighting, just some skirmishing, and Pakistan authorities are still trying to sweet-talk the Taliban to leave.
Sitting 15,000-km from the scene, it's easy for us to make fun of the authorities because obviously the Taliban have come to stay, and to expand their hold to adjoining districts. Obviously they are not going to be talked into leaving. It isn't your village or mine that's next slated for attack, and nor have you and I had to watch while district after district of the NWFP has fallen to the Taliban. Nor have we had to witness the complete and total incompetence of the Pakistan authorities in repelling the Taliban, who only seem to get stronger each time the Government tries to fight them.
Now have you and I had to watch as the Taliban have systematically execute opposing tribal chiefs and police, burn down shops and schools and libraries, and beat and hang/shoot/behead people in the village square for infractions of the extreme version of Sharia the Taliban follow.
We cannot blame the residents of Buner one little bit for running around like headless hens. The feeling of helplessness on the part of the locals must be paralyzing.
What we suspect the talks are about: (a) an attempt to buy time while hoping against hope help arrives; (b) buying time while the families flee; and (c) telling the Taliban "you don't need to kill us, we'll do what you want, but leave us alone after that." Though everyone knows the Taliban are not going to leave anyone alone.
Meanwhile, the Swat Peace Deal Has Collapsed as everyone knew it would, because it was a face-saving agreement to get the Pakistan Army out of the fighting. Because the US/West etc are standing with their feet on the Pakistanis' chest, and because the Pakistanis couldn't swallow the humiliation, the Government told the world, we're not agreeing to Sharia, we're only agreeing to restoring traditional tribal law. But from the start the Taliban said it had to be Sharia or else. Two months later, after having effectively imposed Sharia and pacified Swat, the Taliban are confident enough to tell the Government: "We withdraw from the ceasefire."
And also meanwhile, US/West continue in la-la land led by the Imperial Viceroy, Mr. Richard Holbrooke. Every day we hear someone else saying: "the nexus between the Pakistan Army and the ISI must be broken, the Pakistanis have to come clean on the ISI-Taliban thing or else..."
There is no nexus between ISI and the Army. The ISI is exactly what it says it is: Inter Services Intelligence. It does NOT act on its own - how could it, any more than the US CIA can act on its own. ISI follows the Army's orders, because despite the "Inter" thing, it is subordinate to the Army. Pakistan wants the United States/West/India/Russia out of Afghanistan in the same way if the communists had taken Canada or Mexico we'd want them out. No one in Pakistan, least of all the army is interested in Admiral Mullins' and Mr. Holebrooke's lectures about democracy and how the US, India, and Pakistan are one front because terrorism threatens them all. The Pakistanis must be barfing in disgust because it is their solid, sustained policy to use terror against India.
And the Editor, though being Indian, has nothing personal against the Pakistanis for their endless use of terror because Pakistan is much too weak to conventionally defeat India. Its only hope lies in terror. This is not a moral issue - the US to this day refuses to take hard action against the few Cuban terrorists who remain because, says the US, they are "freedom fighters". And what about the US not moving against the Iranian/Kurd "freedom fighters" who have been sitting inside Iraq all these years creating trouble for Iran? And what about the Iraqi/Turkish Kurds who have been fighting with US tolerance for an independent Kurdistan? What about the dozen or so groups Russia says are terrorists that the US is supporting one way or the other? From where I sit I'll accept they are freedom fighters because I am an old, old hard-line anti-communist and that the Russians are no longer communists doesn't mean a darn to me. I'll support any anti-China group too, because I consider China to be the gravest threat to India and to America. But am I going to get myself into a lather of moral superiority when the Russians/Chinese call those groups terrorists? No!
Hello this is Earth to the US Government: do you for a minute think that the Pakistanis, ISI, Taliban and so on think they are terrorists? Obviously not! They think they are patriots fighting for their country!
Calling A Shovel A Shovel There is a very sound, very realistic reason to stop framing things in terms of morality, right and wrong, black and white. You have to be absolutely clear minded and clear headed, and when you start propagandizing and calling things and people by names different from their real names, you run the danger of confusing yourself and undercutting yourself.
If the US continues thinking the Taliban are terrorists and the ISI is running rouge and are basing their policy on that basis, and if they think they can endlessly beat up the Pakistanis as if the dog will never bite its master, then all we can say is, good night and good luck. But don't Bogart that joint, my friends, pass the good stuff on to the rest of us so we too can have a solid whuff of your pixie dust. Maybe we'll find it easier to see your point of view if we're all ingesting the same controlled substances. But really it would be better if you just quit and stop smoking the stuff in the first place.

0230 GMT April 9, 2009

Indian Army Fighting Insurgents In 8 Locations in Kashmir, says India Today. Its difficult to know when to take the Indian media seriously, and we'd best wait for conformation before commenting. This may not be new news, only an attempt to put a sensationalistic twist on old news.
Taliban Advance Into Buner District reports Bill Roggio at Long War Journal. Anticipating trouble, the Buner tribals had formed a 1000 man militia (lakshar) and told the Taliban to keep out. But the Taliban started skirmishing with the locals and are now moving heavy weapons into the district.
About 100 Taliban have arrived demanding imposition of Sharia. They've been told to leave, but say they have come in peace just to talk. The government authorities say they are negotiating with the Taliban, presumably to defuse the situation.
Does this scenario sound familiar?
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2009/04/taliban_advance_on_b.php
American Merchant Crew Fights Back A heart warming story: Somalia pirates boarded a US crewed container ship after the ship did everything it could to escape. Then the crew captured one pirate and forced the others to run. Unfortunately the pirates grabbed the captain as they fled. The crew then negotiated to trade the captain for their hostage, but apparently the pirates did not live up to their part of the bargain.
Reports suggest, however, that the captain is in a boat near the container ship and the crew are trying to reach him. So maybe the pirates did keep their part of the deal. Maneuvering a large containership to get someone off a boat is not the easiest thing in the world.
Earlier this year, a Chinese crew fought off pirates trying to board, but their job was easier as the pirates did not get on the ship. We expected nothing less from the Chinese than they would fight for their ship - like them or not, the Chinese are not wimps. But we are definitely pleased that an American crew also was determined not to give in. The crew was unarmed, by the way.

0230 GMT April 8, 2009

Here It Comes...The Fourth Kashmir Insurgency orbat.com predicted has begun, a few weeks ahead of schedule. The Indian Army says infiltration attempts in March trebled compared to the same period in 2008, when the Third Kashmir Insurgency was in a 4-year wind-down. The infiltrators are attempting to push into Indian Kashmir in much larger groups of 30-35, and have been trying to get across even though 8-10 feet of snow still covers the terrain. They used to try and avoid engaging the Indian Army on the Line of Control, but are now ready to do so.
At least 2 groups of 30-35 have infiltrated so far this year; one was eliminated, but apparently one was only partly stopped. Contrary to earlier fears that the Taliban would join the Kashmir jihadis, so far the infiltrators are the usual suspects, from Pakistan Kashmir, West Punjab, and the NWFP. Of the 300 infiltrators who remained in Kashmir at the end of last year, half are foreigners.
Analysis When a country is in a death spiral, rationality ceases. No one can think about tomorrow, they can think only of today. Resuming the Kashmir Insurgency is of no advantage to Pakistan, and we'll explain why, but even if the Pakistan Government wanted to stop this new offensive it cannot.
Based on information received, we believe that while the Pakistan Government is hesitant to start another crisis with India, the Pakistan Army is ambiguous. Ambiguous in this sense: it is not committed to another crisis, but nor is it willing to reign in the jihadis. So they are infiltrating without official civil or military sanction, but the Pakistan Army is assisting them - though not as yet in all out manner. Its a bit like the Pakistani brass is saying: "these young hotheads are difficult to control, and why should we expend effort to control them when they are aiming to seize Kashmir, which is a 60-year Pakistani objective. We don't really want trouble with India at this time; at the same time, we cant let these young foolish boys get wiped out by the Indians, as they are a prime asset. So lets give them minimal help to get across the Line of Control, and lets see what happens. If they get whacked, they'll see sense themselves. If they get through and cause havoc, we'll wait and see if there's advantage to us in escalating."
It is the typical opportunism that has been the leading feature of Pakistan decision making for decades now.
But none of it is in Pakistan's interest because (a) Pakistan has plenty on its hands without activating the Indian front, and (b) because Indians have zero patience left with Pakistan, particularly after the Bombay attacks.
Indian patience is legendary and elephant like. Pakistan started the Third Kashmir Insurgency in 1987; for an incredible 18 years India fought the insurgents without once crossing the Line of Control. Even in the 1999 Kargil War, India focused on getting back its lost territory without crossing into Pakistan even though this made no tactical or strategic sense. (Hint to US Government: you had a lot less to do with this Indian restraint than you think, but since no amount of reality can stop you from tooting your horn, carry on.)
But after the three-year wind-down, the Bombay attacks came as a great shock to India. This time India was indeed majorly restrained by the Americans, who decided there was nothing to be lost by letting the Americans sort out Pakistan because the Indians knew jolly well the Americans would get nowhere. This kind of passive-aggressiveness is quite typical of Indian security decision-making, and it has driven the Editor quite nuts for nigh on 50-years, but that's neither here nor there.
Right now, the Indians are looking for an excuse to whack Pakistan. They are absolutely psychologically prepared to go to war for the last time, the Last Round as it is often termed, because this time they intend to destroy Pakistan.
And interestingly, the start of the Fourth Kashmir Insurgency (the first was in 1947, the second was in 1965) sees the Americans in a very, very bad mood about Pakistan. Since 2001 they have been determined to sit on India and not let the Indians do anything because a new and this time all-out war would destroy America's hopes of winning Afghanistan.
But now at least 50% of American decision-makers are saying: "Its time to teach the Pakistanis a lesson, we're tired of their perfidy, and we are not going to let them undermine us in Afghanistan." (Incidentally, we don't think the Pakistanis have been the least bit perfidious in undermining the US in Afghanistan; it's the US that has been immensely stupid in thinking it could force Pakistan to give up Pakistani's national interests just because the US wants it.)
None of this means that America will welcome a major war between India and Pakistan. But the Americans themselves have realized they haven't been able to get Pakistan to stop Pakistan terror against India, and they are realizing every country has the right to defend itself. Even those who are still opposed to India starting a war - or more correctly, retaliating to Pakistan's starting another war - will have to admit that the Pakistanis brought it on themselves.
The military disparity between India and Pakistan is great and growing greater by the day. This may, incidentally be a reason why the Pakistan Army will not stop the jihadis. Just as in 1965, when it believed in the face of the post-1962 Indian buildup it was "now or never", that this was Pakistan's last chance to win Kashmir, the Pakistan Army may be thinking: "India's defense budget is already five times ours. Delay, and it will be too late to get Kashmir". Also, after two decades Kashmir has had a reasonably fair election, and the rejectionist elements have been severely weakened. Give this another few years and aside from a few nutcases, Indian Kashmiris will once again be fully pyschologically integrated into India as they were through the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s.
Well, sorry about that, but its already too late. India defeated the Third Kashmir Insurgency, and contrary to its usual habit of going to sleep after winning, it has been steadily preparing both its CI forces and its conventional forces for another round. Pakistan had no chance whatsoever of winning the Second or Third Insurgencies; it has even less a chance now.
Most important, India is not going to let the Fourth Insurgency get out of hand before it retaliates. Remember orbat.com said a couple of months that the Indians were ready to start something and if it led to the Last Round they were just as happy to have the excuse?
One more Bombay, or one more major flareup in Kashmir, and that's going to be that. You're going to have an all-out war.

2030 GMT April 7, 2009

Israel Fears Hamas Preparing To Smuggle 70-km Fajr Rockets says Jerusalem Post These 10-meter long Iran rockets can reach Tel Aviv's outskirts. Problem is they cannot be disassembled for smuggling and then reassembled in Gaza, as as has been happening with other rockets from Iran. Hamas will have to dig super-tunnels to handle the Fajr. The process can take months and is presumably easier to detect than the usual tunnels.
Meanwhile, Sunday Times (UK) says the Israelis used long-range Hermes UAVs to attack a convoy in Sudan that was brining Fajr 3 rockets to the Sinai. Right now most of the stories about the Sudan convoy attack are simple speculation.
Sudan has issued its own twist on the attack: the convoy was carrying people, not weapons. We are inclined to discount this idea because Sudan would have had wonderful propaganda to put before the world if civilians had been hit.
The Israeli PM says his country is not the US's 51st state and it wont take orders from President Obama. Talk about putting up and knocking down strawpersons. No one has ever said Israel is the 51st state. What people say is that the US is Israel's large lapdog, not the other way around.
DPRK Says Satellite Is Broadcasting Songs, Data From Orbit The satellite is somewhere at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean, but honestly, the Editor has no trouble believing the DPRK lot are hearing songs etc. For many years, Editor has been hearing his former Catholic nun school principle calling his attention. This happens particularly when he is in his public school where the noise level can seemingly reach 150 decibels because everyone talks so loud. Editor was 50% deaf before taking the job. Now three years later he is 70% deaf. The deafer he gets, the more clearly he can hear Sister Kathleen.
Secretary Gates Reshapes US Defense Budget To save money he recommends the US Navy reduce its attack carrier force to 10, cut three brigades from the 6 brigade expansion underway, cap the F-22 program at 187 units, and cancel the presidential helicopter program in which life-cycle costs of each helicopter have reached half-a-billion dollars.
He also wants to cut ineffective anti-missile programs - the US has been using the multiple systems approach and there a whacking great number of programs. The second Airborne Laser Laboratory is to be cut. The multiple-warhead kill vehicle for the long range ABM interceptor is to be ended. No additional long-range interceptors are to be bought for the Alaska installation. As far as we know, the installation was to have 40 launchers.
Also on the block: more C-17s, the Transformational Satellite program, and the new combat SAR helicopter program. And bye-bye Next Generation Bomber.
He wants to increase the F-35 and F/A-18 purchases and add money for reconnaissance systems.
The Air Force is to eliminate 250 older fighter aircraft; approximately 10 squadrons worth.
A part of the US Army's $150-billion Future Combat System is to be dropped. The FCS integrates every infantryman, heavy weapons crew, vehicle, tank, IFV, RFV, artillery gun, helicopter, missile launchers, rocket launcher, UAV, fighter plane, and naval missiles/gunfire on the battlefield. The system itself will go forward, but some of the new platforms are to be dropped. Existing platforms will be used in those vases.
It's kind of the ground equivalent of Star Wars (think "Clone Wars", not Ronal Regan). Very advanced, very complicated, and if it works, capable of annihilating the enemy before he even comes near to establishing contact. For example, the system automatically acquires and hands-off targets to the platform - tank, IFV, artillery gun, attack helicopter, soldier in a trench etc etc - best placed to kill the target. You will no long have a tank battalion somewhere attacking an enemy company and a company somewhere else fighting to save itself against an enemy battalion. What the computer people call "Load balancing" in a new form, if you will. "Swarm" warfare in a new form, if you will.
Definitely takes land war to the next level. No guesses it will require a couple of decades to get the bugs here. You're trying to jump land warfare lethality by an order of magnitude in one go.

0230 GMT April 6, 2009

The Tiresome Yapping of the Poodle Brigade DPRK's missile launch failed. After a successful 1st stage ignition, the rest of the launcher and payload fell into the Pacific.
This was followed by the usual yapping about how DPRK would pay for defying the will of the world, though truthfully, aside from its neighbors and the US, no one in the world is bothered one way or the other by the launch.
When the time came to do something about the launch, i.e., take it out on its launcher or intercept it, US, EU, Japan, and ROK sat there like confused morons. Before and after the launch, it has been nonstop yapping.
We say this to the yapsters: since you have shown conclusively you cannot act, please stop this tiresome noise. It hurts our ears.
US couldn't even persuade the UN Security Council to issue a routine condemnation though the launch violates a UNSC article. After a 3-hour meeting the UNSC adjourned without any statement; it is believed that Russia, Libya, Vietnam, and China didn't want to further alienate DPRK.
Sri Lanka says it has killed 400 rebels, including five leaders. 250 bodies have been recovered.
No yappers the LTTE. They said they'd fight to the last and they are doing so.
Neutron Stars A cubic centimeter of a neutron star's inner crust weighs 1-billion tons. The same volume at the center weighs 10-billion tons. A neutron star is formed when a massive star finished its nuclear fuel and collapses into an object perhaps 10- to 15-km diameter due to gravity. It used to be thought that you needed star with a mass somewhere between 1.4 and 2.5 solar mass to form a neutron star that collapsed into a black hole. Now scientists think you need 1.9-2.7 solar mass, implying there may be fewer black holes and more neutron stars than believed.

0230 GMT April 5, 2009

DPRK removes shroud from missile cone, activates tracking radar says Yonghap from South Korea (via Reuters) on Sunday morning local time, indicating a launch is imminent. The launch was expected yesterday, but high winds may have prevented that from taking place.
Pakistan Taliban Chief blows it by claiming to Reuters he was responsible for the Binghamton, NY massacre on Friday. "(Baituallah) Mehsud told Reuters in Pakistan earlier Saturday that his group was responsible. "I accept responsibility. They were my men. I gave them orders in reaction to U.S. drone attacks," Mehsud said by telephone from an undisclosed location."
US FBI firmly rules out that possibility, which was pretty far-fetched to begin with. This bearded person needs a better PR advisor; making such claims is making himself look like a lamebrain. Which apparently he isn't, we are told.
US plans to ease Cuba travel embargo says the Wall Street Journal. Those with relatives in Cuba will be able to visit them as often as they like, and send them unlimited amounts of money. President Obama is expected to make the announcement shortly.
Sri Lanka is said for the first time to be hesitating in pushing the last phase of its offensive against the LTTE rebels who are now confined to an isthmus covering a few kilometers square because the LTTE is holding several thousand civilians - perhaps several ten thousand civilians - hostage.
Aid groups and the world community have been asking Sri Lanka to stop the offensive for several weeks now to give the civilians a chance to flee. We were against any pause. But now that it has come to the end, its fairly clear the LTTE would rather take the civilians down with them rather than let them go free. It seems to us the LTTE has run out of options: it can expect zero reinforcements and there is nowhere left to hide or run. Stopping the offensive appears to us the right thing now to do.
Stingers and Hamas: Letter from Richard (USAF Retd) Read your quick bit on someone supposedly bringing into Gaza and attempting to fire some Stingers at IDF choppers. The thing about the IFF "recognizing" the copters as "friendly" and, therefore, would not fire is, to the best of my knowledge, not correct. You would have to have the IFF "code of the day" That was loaded up in the copters' IFF systems to loan into the Stingers' IFF systems (I doubt the presumed operators would have that code. Even if they did why would they load up the code and negate their ability to fire?). Add to this if these are the older Stingers (1980s to early 90s) the IFF is an add-on. If was to help the crews to avoid, hopefully, shooting at friendly aircraft. One could ignore hooking up the IFF box and still be able to fire the missile as long as it had a lock on.

0230 GMT April 4, 2009

Five US and three Japan Aegis destroyers with Standard 3 anti-missile missiles are now deployed around DPRK, says Asahi Shimbun. Two other destroyers, US and ROK, without the Standard 3 are also deployed. Several EP-3s from Iwakuni, Japan, are patrolling, as well as three US aircraft from Kadena, including a RC-135 Cobra Ball missile tracking aircraft.
So, is this an exercise or something? US has said it is not going to shoot down the missile; Japan says it will only shoot down debris threatening Japan or if the launch misfires and the missile looks to be coming down on Japan. If we take the two countries at the word, then they are using this opportunity to stage a full-blown test of the US-Japan ABM detection, tracking, and interception systems without that last step of firing interceptors.
Personally, Orbat.com would rather US/DPRK stop blabbing and just shoot down the darn missile. With 8 destroyers available you've got at least that many shots possible. Fully operational or no, the system should be able to bring down the missile. And even if it fails, okay, at least this was a test against a real target.
Unidentified warships sinks Somali pirate mother ship? AFP says local sources say this happened, but the maritime coalition says it did not happen.
Hamas fired smuggled US Stingers at IDF helicopters? So says rantburg.com. 4 of the SAMs were smuggled to Gaza from Egypt. The missiles would not fire because the IFF system recognized US-built aicraft. In one case a missile did launch, but got well off target.

0230 GMT April 3, 2009

Afghanistan

Whether or not the Americans want to admit it, till very recently they have fought the Afghan War as a search-and-destroy operation. Scouts look for the enemy, he is fixed by various means, and than walloped. The dead bodies are policed, and everyone goes back to base for the next bang-up.
Admittedly, Afghanistan is not Vietnam, and our painting is too simplistic. The US has been doing reconstruction, and it has been making efforts to show villagers that it is around. But intermittent foot patrols accomplish little, and in the absence of security, reconstruction meant only a juicy new set of targets for the Taliban to destroy when they returned.
So: all that is in the past. US has uttered a "mea culpa" and clear-and-hold is being undertaken. Excellent. Congratulations.
No war can be won if the adversary's home bases cannot be touched That lesson was learned again and again in Vietnam, and has been painfully relearned in Afghanistan. Pakistan is a country of 170-million, and if just 1% are willing to support the insurgency, that's 0.85-million men. Moreover, with a 2%+ population growth, Pakistan adds over 1.5-million males a year. Not to mention the constant flow of Afghanistan and foreign fighters. The insurgents can probably support a loss rate of 100 KIA/day indefinitely.
The solution is not to attack the home bases We've been through this in Vietnam. Despite the heaviest bombing in the history of warfare, the communists always came back once again. Attacking Pakistan will only destabilize that country, lead to the breakdown of the state, and create anarchy on an unimagined scale. Instead of 1% of the population supporting the insurgents, you will get 10% and worsen the problem accordingly.
The solution is to stop infiltration.
Impossible, says conventional military wisdom How can you seal 2400-km of wild mountain border? Cant be done.
If that is the attitude, may we suggest US/NATO go home tomorrow and not waste any more lives and money.
And if anyone is putting credence in pathetic ideas like building up Pakistan CI capability and diminishing ISI's influence, they need regular limp noodle whackings till they come to their senses. Why should Pakistan destroy the very instruments it has created for its national security? Pakistan is behaving rationally in supporting the Taliban; US is behaving irrationally in trying to force Pakistan to weaken its national security for the sake of US objectives.
And please, if anyone brings up the old, threadbare argument "Pakistan must suppress the Taliban before the Taliban takes over Pakistan" we're going to barf. What gives westerners the idea that the secular elite it interacts with represents Pakistan? The Taliban don't represent Pakistan either, but they are a closer to what is becoming increasingly mainstream thinking among Pakistan.
Sealing of the border is entirely possible It may take ten years, but the border can be sealed using multiple lines of defense ranging from several tiers of wire, obstacles, watchposts, mines, sensors, air surveillance, foot patrols, air strikes, mobile reaction forces, etc. etc. A start can be made in 2010 in fortifying the most vulnerable areas and declaring free fire zones over the rest. If that means making a 10-km deep strip of the border uninhabitable for cockroach or man, do it and stop whining about hard it all is.
At a very rough guess, you're going to need 50 men per kilometer of the border, or something like 100,000. Of these, at least 20% will have to be US/NATO/allied troops for some years.
Yes, a much larger Afghan Army and Afghan Police is required. But US/NATO are already embarked on that dimension.
Next, village security is imperative. Again, that means mixed platoons and companies in hundreds, perhaps thousands of villages. At 10 Western/NATO soldier per village for 4000 villages to start, you're looking at 40,000 US/NATO troops and at least 200,000 Afghan troops and police. Takes time, but it can be done.
One reason 8 years down the road we have a tiny Afghan Army is that the Giant Mind formerly known as Rummy Rumsfeld and now known simply as Failed Guy decided that since Afghanistan was a poor country, no point in saddling it with a military it couldn't afford. Half baked thinking as usual, because the lack of Afghan troops means the west has had to deploy its own troops. In case no one has noticed, you can handily deploy 20 Afghan soldiers for the cost of one NATO soldier, if not more. And if the Afghan war is about an accountant's definition of cost-effectiveness, time to throw it in and go home. There are very few wars that are cost-effective in an accounting sense.
You cannot equivocate and temporize on hard decisions just because you don't have the stomach for them and still expect to win.
and don't think a negotiated peace will create victory for the west. As it is, darn nearly everyone in the region seems to think the purpose of the mini-surge is to strengthen the west's position for negotiations with the Taliban, and after the negotiations and a paper victory, the west will leave - and the Taliban will take over in any case.
Think that will never happen? Anyone remember a little dust-up called Vietnam? Just as was the case for the communists, the real stupidity of the Taliban is opposing the UIS/West. Far more effective for them to say "we eschew our violent ways" and to participate in the government while steadily continuing to build up their armed and political cadres. Then when the US/West declares victory and goes home, strike and take over the country.
But just because the Taliban are insurgents doesn't mean they have any brains. They are dumb as door posts - and advance apologies to the the door posts for insulting them.

0230 GMT April 2, 2009

DPRK Threatens To Attack Japan If Missile Intercepted DPRK promises "punishing blows" without mercy. The missile is being fuelled.
Question: why does the world put up with this kind of language from this yapping little rabid poodle?
Readers will notice we have not brought up UN Resolution 1718, prohibiting DPRK from staging nuclear or missile tests. Both Japan and US have the legal cover they need to stop this launch. But we consider 1718 discriminatory. For example, it does not apply to India, Israel, Iran, and Pakistan. Even if it did, we would still consider it discriminatory as long as US and Russia were not included.
Our position is DPRK has the right to assure its security as it sees best. And the US/Japan/ROK have the right to assure their security as they see best. If that means attacking the missile on its launch pad, we'd be in complete agreement.
General Petraeus requests 10,000 more Afghan troops for 2010 including a combat brigade and a division HQ, 4000 and 2,000 personnel respectively.
Meanwhile, plans are underway to double the doubling (2011) Afghan army and police, to ~250,000 and ~150,000 respectively.
We are dubious if the additional US troops will accomplish much, if anything, unless the entire CI strategy is changed. There are signs of change, for example, clear and hold has, at very long last, become the US Army's CI mantra. Better late then never, that sort of thing. But this is only a small start. It's as if your intent is to drive from New York to San Francisco and you've finally figured out you need to stop driving the car in reverse gear and shift to "drive". But that's still a long way to go.
We'll offer some suggestions for what we think needs doing in Afghanistan. We've already said attacking Pakistani territory or breaking up Pakistan are not good ideas.

0230 GMT April 1, 2009

On Respecting Your Enemy

With increasing frequency your editor reads these days that the Taliban is composed mainly of men who are fighting for the money. The implication is that if we give them money in the form of jobs, they will give up the Taliban.
This is a peculiarly odd and condescending formulation. After all, would ANY of the US/NATO soldiers fight if they weren't paid? How many would fight if they were given better paying civilian jobs?
The economic factor has always ranked large in any volunteer army, and traditionally, the military has provided a path of upward mobility for youngsters of limited options to get ahead. Sure, the white youngster from Appalachia, the black youngster from Detroit, the Hispanic youngster from East Texas join the military because they are patriotic, or want adventure. But the reality is, the money is most important.
Don't believe us? Then please to explain why a country of 300-million people is having issues with filling ~100,000 slots per year in wartime? Somewhere around 4-5 million young people reach age 18 annually. Shouldn't the services be getting 3-5 volunteers for every slot, particularly considering the military pays well, and then gives you all sorts of money to do college?
Still doubt is? Okay, then please to tell how many people will volunteer were the military to cut salaries to - say - $100/week? Our guess is that 90% of potential volunteers will change their minds.
So: be realistic, folks, and see that money likely plays as great a part in the decision of our youngsters to enlist as it does for Taliban volunteers.
Remember also: possibly the majority of these youngsters are coming from the madrassas, religious schools in which they have been enrolled since age 6, 10, 14, or whenever their families decided there were too many mouths to feed. By the time they reach 16-18, these kids are possibly the most heavily indoctrinated kids in the world.
On the other side, lets look at your typical Afghan or Pakistani recruit. Is he motivated by money or by belief in his cause? That's an unfair question, isn't it, because you wouldn't see too many volunteering if they were paid - say - a stipend of $20/month.
Isn't it possible that your average Talib is actually more motivated by ideology than any of his adversaries? Else why do these chaps regularly go out and take whacking great casualties against US/NATO troops, and two-three months later their units are built back, and they set out once again, to lose in ratios from 10-1 to 100-1? And then they're back again, and again.
The Americans love to describe themselves as warriors. Just another example of the overheated rhetoric that inflicts and afflicts all aspects of American life. The same as everyone is a hero. For example, a couple of days ago, two men in the street saw a little 3-year old who had crawled out of an open window of her building and hanging on for dear life. They rushed to stand underneath and caught her as she fell. The police described them as "heroes". No, Sir, and Madam. There's a reason the Medal of Honor is given only for acts "Above and beyond the call of duty", and we in no way mean to diminish the heroism of the five others who likely performed deeds but for many reasons did not get the supreme award.
So it is with the word "warriors". Look people, lets be reasonable. Suiting up in 100-lbs of gear and going out to battle with unimaginable resources at your back is not exactly the stuff of warriorhood. Nor is enlisting for 4 years or even 6, and then coming back to Civvy Street. A warrior is a professional fighter who dedicates his or her entire existence to combat, who is indifferent to anything except the greater glory of the fighting brotherhood or sisterhood and her/his God. S/he fights for justice - even if their definition of justice is different from yours and mine. S/he fights for truth - even if the definition of truth differs. S/he fights for the weak, to uphold the rule of law - even if the definition of week and rule of law is different. Etc.
Your editor despises everything what the Taliban stands for, particularly their extreme repression of women. The only good Talib is a dead Talib, and that is not racist, if only because your Editor is of the same race as the Taliban - South Asian. It's a simple statement of reality. This lot is at its best about ten times worse than the most fanatical communist ever was. The world - not just the West - needs to kill them all until there are no more left to kill. A million, ten million, a hundred million, it makes no difference. No quarter, no mercy, no compassion, Dead is not just Best, it is the ONLY status for these people.
At the same time, if US/NATO were real warriors, they would recognize that there is someone else in the world that are even more real warriors. And that's the self-same Taliban.
Despise them, hate them for what they represent. But if you want to be a warrior, give the Taliban the respect they are owed as warriors. Don't say stupid things like "they fight for money", as if you don't.
Give them respect, and then kill them.

0230 GMT March 31, 2009

Lahore, Pakistan Police Academy Attacked killing six police personnel including cadets. Three of the 10-12 attackers blew themselves rather than surrender when trapped. 4-5 attackers were captured after an 8-hour firefight which left 100+ security forces wounded.
There are no good figures available either on government casualties or the attackers. One policeman told media he personally had helped load 32 killed on to ambulances.
Asia Times Online gives 70 killed and the number of attackers at 20. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KC31Df02.html
Longwarjournal.com says an "obscure" Taliban group based in South Waziristan has claimed responsibility, saying it staged the attack in retaliation for the Pakistan security forces presence in its region. http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2009/03/waziristanbased_terr.php
US Aegis Warships Sail From ROK Two warships left ports in ROK for the sea of Japan, to join two JSDF Aegis destroyers deployed on anticipation of the DPRK satellite launch.
Read this article that explains Japanese capabilities and limitations in shooting down a DPRK missile.http://www.asahi.com/english/Herald-asahi/TKY200903300055.html
Wall Street Journal cites a Japanese newspaper as saying a group of 15 Iranians has arrived in DPRK for the launch.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123843944684370587.html
Fit for Ripley's Believe It Or Not Read this story about a Japanese shipyard worker who survived Hiroshima, only to be ordered to report to a shipyard in Nagasaki - where he survived the second atom-bomb attack.
http://timesonline.typepad.com/times_tokyo_weblog/2009/03/the-luckiest-or.html
Hijacking Ships For Dummies Rule 24: do not attempt to hijack a warship, even if it is only an auxiliary. That's what Sudan pirates did when they moved on a German Navy supply ship supporting the international anti-piracy task force. The auxiliary turned on the pirates and pursued them, aided by a frigate, a helicopter, and a patrol aircraft. Seven pirates were captured.
Once you know that the pirates get hopped to the gills before doing a raid, you can see how they might have though the supply ship was a defenseless civilian cargo vessel.

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