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Ravi Rikhye  

 

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    Condensed World Armies  Condensed World Paramilitary Forces 2006

    Analysis

    WE BRING YOU THE WORLD ©

    Published on an ad hoc basis

     

     Declassified Gulf II Planning Documents

    Report on US Army readiness March 2007 [Thanks Joseph Stefula]

     

    Welcome to  America Goes To War. We focus on news about the war on terror and other important strategic matters.

     

    0230 December 31, 2008

     

    We cancelled a lengthy editorial on Israel and Palestine because the Editor realized that though he made perfect sense to himself, his readers being normal would see no sense in the editorial.

     

    • Pakistan closes Khyber Pass to clear insurgents who have closed the Khyber Pass. Sorry if that makes no sense. Would have made more sense for the media lot to say: "Pakistan on the offensive to open the Khyber Pass."

    • You can judge how serious this is from a comment the top administrator made to Reuters: "...we mean business this time." so, you admit, sir, you weren't serious before, and how do we know you're serious this time?

    • Plus, Sir, can you explain why the Frontier Corps - again - is conducting the operation, as Bill Roggio of www.longwarjournal.org informs us? Surely by now you understand the whole world knows that your Army has not been fighting in NWFP against when people upstart groups refuse to be bought off and dare challenge the Army? Surely you know we all know that the Frontier Corps is the weakest of your military arms, that they are locally recruited, and while they have been flogged to fight, they don't want to, and quietly aid their brothers among the insurgents?

    • And may we point out: say you are serious and clear out the Khyber Pass. What happens next week when the insurgents return? And what happens in Peshawar and the surrounding areas which the Taliban control? What happens in areas west of the Khyber where your writ doesn't run? Counterinsurgency means you must fight for years and years, not for a week.

    • Come on now, Sir - wink wink nod nod nudge nudge - we know you're doing this to keep the Americans pouring the $100-million/month or whatever it is now - more we think - into the Pakistan army's budget to pay for the troops who are supposed to be fighting. We know you're not serious - how can you be? The insurgents are your own militias fighting in support of Pakistan's national security interests, which dictate the Americans lose the war.

    • But you know what? If the Americans want to be fooled, who are we to blame you for fooling them? The buyer must be kept happy, no? Look at this way: you are simply extending to the Americans the traditional hospitality of the Frontier: the American want to be fooled, it would be downright wrong for you not to fool them. More power to you, Sir.

    • Request To President Bush May we ask you to request the Iraqi Government to free the Iraqi shoe thrower? You took the incident in stride, and even joked about it, as is your wont, because you are a man with a sense of humor, even if 99% of your people don't know that. "It was a size 10," you said. We know you took no real offense. Talk to the Iraqis please, and let this man go home. You wanted Iraq to be a democracy, and you've succeeded.

    • We're told by the Times of India that just the other day the Indians amended their Criminal Procedure Code so that the police can long arrest anyone who throws shoes at the Indian president. The police can only give the citizen a notice to appear before them; if they are dissatisfied with the citizen's explanation, they have to justify to the court an arrest warrant should be issued.

    • Pakistan Intelligence Preparing To Flood India from Nepal for the purpose of ascertaining the locations of Indian field formations, says Mandeep Singh Bajwa. Bill Roggio told us yesterday that the Pakistanis are really worried India will launch a zero-warning attack on their country.

    • Mandeep gave us a complete list of what Indian corps are doing; we'll get around to positing it sometime, but its pretty clear the Indians are simply embarked on the regular winter training. We suggested to Mandeep maybe we should send the list to the Pakistanis to reassure them, and he allowed that might be a good idea. Except you can see the problem: with two Indians spreading the word, even if one is a renegade, the Pakistanis are going to say: "More Indian disinformation".

    • So how to resolve this? Pakistan's intelligence agents will tell them exactly what we are: that the Indians are moving up and down in exercise areas on/near the border. And the Pakistanis will tell their agents: "But are you sure they wont attack?" And the agents will say: "Well, we cant say they will or they wont. You asked us the locations of the field formations, we've told you."

    • It is the Editor's honest opinion that all classified information to do with military crisis deployments should be made available to the public. Editor is happy to do it for all over the world, not just South Asia. But who's going to pay for the expense?

     

    0230 December 30, 2008

     

    • Correction: India mulling offer of 120,000 troops for Afghanistan Thanks to some quick work by Bill Roggio and Mandeep Singh Bajwa we were able to avoid getting a big smack on our news story yesterday. India has not offered US troops, but is working on a proposal to make an offer, to the new Administration. We got the military details because the military was quick off the mark with a response.

    • So today you should have the details of the formations etc. India is earmarking - in case the proposal is made and accepted.

    • Nonetheless, when planning goes as far as to identify specific units, a force commander, and matters such as the battle-training schools will be set up, you have to see this is completely serious from India's view.

    • Warning on "Bombay 2, 3, 4" A source from Kabul warns Orbat.com that other Bombay-like attacks are coming and that certain sections of the Pakistani military are determined to push India-Pakistan to war.

    • Speculation on next Pakistani move on withdrawn troops We hear rumors that Pakistan will offer to return troops to the NWFP if the US pressures India to change the status quo on Kashmir more to Pakistan's liking.

    • We've heard of Red Herrings and can with authority say this is a Dead Red Herring. There is absolutely no chance India will compromise on Pakistan, unless Pakistan is thinking of allowing free elections in its part of the disputed state. India has just completed elections in the state for the umpteenth time, the turnout at 61% was higher than ever before and this was possibly the fairest election ever held there. This despite a boycott by the pro-secession parties.

    • Now before the usual western suspects start talking about this was not a free election, can we ask a question: would the US permit Washington and Oregon states to hold an election on secession? The day that happens, okay, you can come back and say the Kashmir election was not fair. Then you can explain to the Indians why they should allow a vote on secession of the whole state when except for the districts (counties) that make up the Valley, no one else wants to secede. So really this is akin to 40% of Washington/Oregon's counties they want to secede, but all of the two states will have to accept the verdict because these 40% hold a majority of the population.

    • Further, India has defeated the Pakistan-based insurgency.

    • The Indians wouldn't negotiate anything even if they were losing the war, and they have won this phase, so what is there to talk about?

    • Israel and Hamas There is something in the Israeli consciousness that approaches psychopathy when the Israelis know perfectly well they cannot force Hamas or  its successors from continuing to attack Israel anymore than could stop Hamas' predecessors, but they still keep thrashing the Palestinians.

    • Please understand we do not object to hard Israeli action. If they simply came out and said "we won, you lost" as winners have done since recorded history began and likely before, and if they expelled the losers, Orbat.com for one would not be happy, but we'd say: "The Israelis did what they had to do. The strong inherit the earth..." - at least that's our understanding of the Old Testament, and Judaism does not recognize the New Testament with its meek and meeker business.

    • Sure, the Egyptians and the Jordanians wouldn't accept the expellees, so go and grab enough of the Sinai and Jordan to send the refugees there.

    • Okay, so the world will hate you, but does any Israeli really Feel The Love that is gushing from the rest of the world on their repression?

    • Its this business of crippling the cripple who lands a blow with his crutch because you made him a cripple to begin with that is bothering us. If you don't have the guts to kill the animal you wounded and keep shooting him everywhere except on his head, to "persuade" him to leave you alone, there's something wrong with you, not with the animal.

    • Moreover, what's this business of we're willing to make peace but we're going keep grabbing territory from you, and we're going to tell how you're going to live your life, and then expect the Palestinians to accept it? Any fool knows there can be no peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians. You've kicked the man put of his house, but let him set up in your back garden and you expect him to accept it and leave you alone?

    • Come on folks, its time to grow up.

     

    0230 December 29, 2008

     

    This focus in India-Pakistan is getting positively painful. We craftily turned over details of the story to www.longwarjournal.org, so check over there - the story may not appear till later today. This leaves us free to discuss other things.

     

    India offers US 120,000 troops for Afghanistan

     

    Please note that Pakistan has withdrawn a second divisional HQ from the NWFP. We assume its is HQ 23 Division plus the one brigade that went with the HQ to NWFP; Mandeep Singh Bajwa will let us know when he has confirmation. we are approaching the point where two-thirds of the reinforcements sent west are in the process of withdrawing. Please also note Bill Roggio at Long War Journal reports that in the Orakzi agency, one of the seven tribal agencies of the NWFP, Taliban has enforced Sharia law on 15 of 21 tribes in the agency. In other words, the Talibanization of the NWFP is proceeding rapidly. We also have an analysis on why Pakistani soldiers are refusing to fight the insurgents - we already knew why, but for the first time we have information from someone on the scene. We will give it to you tomorrow. But all in all, the US by insisting Pakistan fight the insurgents set itself up for failure. Again, we have said this before, we can now say it from another angle. US policy in the region has to change dramatically if there is to be hope of success in Afghanistan.

    • Our trusty correspondent, Mandeep Singh Bajwa, informed us this morning that India has offered to send 120,000 troops to Afghanistan. Naturally we asked Mandeep "are we being used by the Indians in a psyops game to put pressure on Pakistan?" Not that the Government of India knows we exist, but in all the movies about the media the Editor always asks if the paper is being played.

    • Mandeep's answer, paraphrased, was this: "I don't know at what level the offer has been made, but the Indian Army and Air Force are down to identifying specific units, formations, and squadrons..." - details, as we said, at Long War Journal - "...as well as discussing a specific name for force commander, plus working on the details of pre-deployment training, so this is a lot more elaborate than needed for a psyops game.'

    • We'd prefer to discuss this after we learn more, rather than waste your time with elaborate theories spun out of nothing ("Orbat.com's military sources say..."). But the following points are immediately apparent.

    • For the new US administration, this offer would be heaven-sent and just making it would put the US Government in debt to the Indians - "your other friends/allies talked, we walked." The administration could turn around to to its own people, and say: "Americans, you complain we are carrying the Afghan burden by ourselves, now we have a partner."

    • At Orbat.com we've been constantly talking about the need for more manpower; well, here you have a whacking big increment of manpower. With US/Allied troops it takes one to 75% of what Orbat.com considers a minimum force if Afghanistan is to be won.

    • In one deft swoop, India forces the Americans to chose Delhi over Islamabad. To the Indians the constant US attempt to "balance" the two countries has been a source of serious blood pressure since the 1940s; obviously if the Americans accept it has to be India First from now on and Pakistan gets marginalized. Moreover, the Indians put America up the creek without the paddle regarding Pakistan: "what is it your so-called ally is doing, compared to what we are willing to do."

    • The devious cunning of the Indian move becomes more apparent when you consider if the US government refuses, the American people are going to get on the Government's case: "The Indians are offering and you're still sticking with those slimey two-timers the Pakistanis?"

    • For India, offering a huge contingent takes the pressure off the Indian government to act aggressively against Pakistan. India does not have a launch a single sortie against Pakistan to punish it for acting against India. Indian government can tell its own people: "What good will a pinprick do? The Israelis have been bashing up the Palestinians for two decades, and where are the results? What we are doing is to strike a hard blow at Pakistan without crossing the Pakistan border and getting beat up by everyone for provoking war."

    • Plus India neatly destroys Pakistan's strategic depth objective. The Indians have been wanting to get into the act in Afghanistan for several years, because they know a Taliban government means more fundamentalist pressure on Pakistan and thereby on India. But the Americans have been refusing India help for fear of offending the Pakistanis. For India to get into Afghanistan in force is to again change the paradigm of Indian-Pakistani relations as happened in 1971 when India split East Bengal from Pakistan. For the last almost 40 years India's efforts to marginalize Pakistan have been stymied. If the US accepts the Indian offer, India gains hugely.

    • But right now a lot of American decision-makers do not care if Pakistan is offended because they see the latter has no interest in fighting the insurgents or helping the US against the Taliban. Once alternate supply routes are available, US can write off Pakistan and as a consequence, paradoxically, vastly increase its leverage in that country.

    • As for Pakistani/jihadi retaliation against India or the Indian contingent in Afghanistan, we've said before the Indians don't care. Their point is India is squarely in the sights of the jihadis: India is already under severe, sustained attack and unable to retaliate. As for the security of the Indian troops, that really is the last thing the Indians are concerned about. They want to go to Afghanistan to fight, not to protect their troops against suicide bombers.

    • Two other minor points in passing. By making this offer, India takes the wind out of Pakistan's sails because the latter has very successful turned the world's attention from the Bombay atrocity to getting the world to stop escalation between India and Pakistan. Every day that goes by, India has less diplomatic/geopolitical freedom to hit Pakistan. But if India has offered several divisions for Afghanistan, obviously the last thing the Indians are thinking of is attacking Pakistan - 3/4th of the Army troops (as opposed to the CI troops) India is earmarking for Afghanistan are from the three strike corps. So India undercuts Pakistani claims that Delhi is preparing to attack.

    • The second point we find interesting. PRC knows if Pakistan falls to the jihadis, Sinkiang is the next target. By offering to go to Afghanistan, India is directly helping Beijing. Which puts Beijing in a very awkward spot as India is a big rival for influence in Asia. Not only will Indians be helping PRC, if China does send troops to Afghanistan, Delhi will canoodle with Washington without competition from China. The Chinese will have no choice but to join the Afghan venture or lose influence in South and Central Asia, and with Washington.

    • To sum up: Orbat.com has been second to none in bashing the Government of India as incompetent and impotent. But with this offer, India has overnight changed the rules of game in South/Central Asia and struck a potentially fatal blow at Pakistan. In the end, this could become much, much bigger by an order of magnitude than breaking off East Pakistan in 1971.
       

    0230 December 28, 2008

     

    "Not tonight, dear, we have a headache" is what the Editor wants to say. This India-Pakistan thing is boring beyond words, and sorting out media misinformation/hysteria is neither fun, or educative, or easy. The matter becomes so complicated readers are tempted to say, to heck with the fine points, lets just go with the meme. So beyond a point the exercise becomes steadily less productive.

     

    Developments

    See also www.longwarjournal.org

     

    • Pakistan is now in the process of withdrawing at least six and possibly seven of the 12 brigades it sent as reinforcements - under American pressure - to the NWFP. Troops are returning to XXXI, IV, and XXX Corps, all defensive corps against India. Insofar as Pakistan does not wanting to be fighting the fundamentalists/Taliban, who are their own people operating in Pakistan's national interests, the Bombay attack has proved heaven-sent. And insofar as the Pakistanis weren't any fighting worth mention, there is minimal loss to the GWOT. A bigger problem is the security of the Peshawar-Kabul supply route, and Pakistan has refused to do anything about that aside from from assigning a paramilitary Frontier Corps wing for escort. The problem being, ha-ha, the wing was already assigned to this duty.

    • None of this means the Pakistanis are bad, evil, duplicitous. If the US reserves the right to assure its national security as it sees best, why should not Pakistan? And to Pakistan, the US/NATO presence in Afghanistan is not a solution, it is the root cause of the problem because it reversed Pakistan's carefully thought out and well-executed policy to gain strategic depth through the tool of the Taliban. It is not our place to run down the Pakistanis: they are doing what they have to, and lets leave moral judgments from America out of the discussion. After all, the Pakistan lives in that part of the world, not America.

    • Please do not pin any significance to the Israeli presence in India As explained by Bill Roggio in www.longwarjournal.org the Israelis have been running around India for years on a variety of technical, weapons, and special forces training programs. Indeed, we are surprised www.Debka.com  has not given the details.

    • India is not moving troops for any confrontation with Pakistan. Its winter exercise time; these exercises are planned years in advance and are a critical component of readiness. You can't just cancel them just to deny the media a chance to make up stories.

    • Mandeep Bajwa has pointed out to us that conventional warfare training for Pakistan's India-front defensive formations has gotten disrupted because of the deployments to NWFP. It is perfectly reasonable for the Pakistanis to catch up on their large formation training, and they are doing just that.

    • India may be considering a UAV strike - at least that's we gather from our Pakistani sources. They say that they will not tolerate such a thing. Our advice? Take a Chill Pill, mates. Letting India bust up a couple of tents and huts in Kashmir is not going to cost you anything. Its truly unrealistic of you to think you can hit Bombay and India will meekly accept. Yes, you have been hitting India for decades, and India has been meekly accepting. But that game is over now.

    • So please don't retaliate, because then the Indians are going to be forced into major walloping and head thumping. Yes, Orbat.com believes no good will come out of it for either country. Easy enough for us to say, we're not responsible to the people of India and the government. We can give any amount of free advice without consequence. Indeed, the Editor's house is full with baskets of advice. Stop by and pick up a few, it'll help him.

    • Whatever India does, what it needs to do is capture the Indian smuggler and Pakistan ally Dawood Ibrahim and bring him to India for trial. Its not conceptually difficult, the man moves around Dubai and parts of Karachi as if he owned the place; Indian intelligence in Karachi is good, in Dubai its excellent. Our advice to the Indians is: whacking this man will do much, more more for Indian morale than blowing up empty terror camp huts with UAVs.

    • Meanwhile, the idea that the US needs to get the Indian Army into Afghanistan is growing. Which is to say, if the idea was 1 on a scale of 10, it has moved up to 2 on a scale of 10. We've said before the Indians had offered and the US, nervous to keep Pakistan happy, said no. Indians were quite miffed.

    • There was the objection that Pakistani/fundamentalist terror activity against India would increase and the Indian force in Afghanistan would also become a fat target.

    • The thing is the Indians don't care about increased terror activity against India because this is increasing by leaps and bounds anyway. As for the Indian Army, all we usefully say is that they absolutely do not care what sort of opposition they will face. They will take no prisoners anyway, the usual thing with foreign fighters they capture in Kashmir, so it hardly matters if the man blows himself up or if he is decapitated after capture. The Indians have a very high tolerance for casualties, by the way. Its almost as if they look at force protection as cowardice. They operate on a fraction of the logistics load the Americans/NATO require, and they have no problems tromping up the mountain and down the mountain every single day. These are the sorts of troops you need in Afghanistan.

    • On the US side, the factions that say Pakistan remains a valuable ally and must not be pushed beyond a certain point are losing ground. We don't think tipping point has been reached when American decision makers accept as a consensus that Pakistan is neither an ally nor a friend, and is kept superficially cooperative at gunpoint - not a useful way to keep people working for you, no? But the tipping point is coming. If earlier the overall balance was 7-3 in favor of keeping Pakistan happy, after Bombay its shifted to 6-4.

    • When the US sets up alternate supply routes, you will see the balance move to 5-5.

    • As for the Pakistanis, they are already examining the consequences for their own security given a two-corps Indian deployed to Kabul and surrounding provinces. Two corps: repeat after me, six divisions, likely 70-75 infantry battalions, each battalion of four rifle companies, plus 15+ special CI battalions of six rifle companies each.

    • You wanna win in Afghanistan? Make nice with the Indians.

    • Is this a good idea? War in this part of the world is never a good idea. The Law of Unintended Consequences will run wild. But when you run out of peaceful options, what do you do? Best India and Pakistan disengage and terminate their destabilization efforts. Is that going to happen? The Editor's History of India further back than 700 AD is murky to the point of non-existence. But if the history of the last 13 centuries is any guide, this will NOT happen. You cannot have multiple centers of power in South Asia. Its that simple.

     

     

     

     

    0230 December 27, 2008

     

    Pakistani Troop Movements

    See also www.longwarjournal.org

     

    • The only correct report in the press is the move of Pakistan 14 Division away from the NWFP. The return of the division back to its home stations in the Cholistan sector is confirmed by Mandeep Singh Bajwa. Generally, we call this area the Multan Sector to make it easier for people to follow deployments.

    • As far as Orbat.com is concerned, since the Pakistan Army was doing little in the NWFP except staying in its cantonments, there is no damage to the US/NATO effort against the Taliban, nor will there be even if Pakistan withdraws more troops. If western analysts want to believe the Pakistani Army has been ferociously fighting the fundamentalists in the NWFP, then all we can say: "We all have our illusions, the Editor's is he will one day win Miss Universe. Meanwhile, have another green-and-white pill. It won't make you return to sanity, but it feels good." We honestly have no time to educate people who don't have the time to actually learn something about Pakistan/Afghanistan, and we're tired of repeating ourselves ad nauseum on the subject.

    • This division has not gone to the Lahore sector, as people quoting Pakistani "intelligence" sources are claiming. It has moved forward of its peace bases but is yet not deployed at its war stations.

    • Does this mean anything? Let's put it this way. Orbat.com would accuse Pakistan GHQ of criminal negligence if they had not ordered this division back given the merest possibility of war. The Multan sector is where Indian armored formation are free to maneuver once they break through the frontal defenses. There are permutations and combinations of Indian war plans, and clearly the first thing Indian AHQ does not do is call up Orbat.com and ask our permission before activating Plan A, B, or C. The reality is, however, is there is a finite number of plans with any chance of success; the plans have been studied for almost 60 years; endless exercises have taken place, and no more was there any chance of some major surprise in Soviet plans if SGFG had gone west, is there any chance of some surprise new plan for India.

    • Multan Sector is a key point in the plains for India. Pakistan GHQ knows it, the rickshaw wallahs at Multan Railway Station know it, and we will be unsurprised if Pakistani kindergartners know this.

    • Okay, with that out of the way, lets note that Pakistan moved five of its seven defending brigades in its XXXI Corps from Multan Sector to NWFP. Why, we don't know. Perhaps the US guaranteed India would not attack. But this is basically like the US pulling four of five 7th Army (Germany) divisions out of the line and sending them somewhere else, in the eighties. You dont take risks like this.

    • So basically, this very wide front of upto 300-km (depending on how you want to count it) had two brigades left.

    • Meanwhile, on the other side is sitting Indian X Corps with two divisions in line and one in reserve, with perhaps 12 brigades. This does not count the Indian strike corps that would deploy behind X Corps, whose jobs is to knock at least half a dozen holes in the Pakistani defenses, each large enough to allow passage of a strike corps division.

    • So, dear reader, we leave it to you: would you read anything into the move of 14 Division back?

    • All other reports are false and have been floated by an ignorant and irresponsible media interested only in creating false crises to sell their wares. We put the Indian media in the same category though for once the Indian media is less guilty of inflammatory reporting than the Pakistan media.

    • We noted the other day that IV Corps Artillery (Lahore sector) had gone for its annual firing practice to the Jhelum ranges and this represented no preparation for war. You dont send formations for training when war impends. Mandeep Bajwa tells us that one division of the corps has also finished its training at the same ranges and is back in the Lahore area; now the second division has gone.

    • As for the much touted movement of Pakistan 3rd Independent Armored Brigade, this is the IV Corps armor reserve. It has also gone to Jhelum for training. If you are planning war, or fearing it, are you going to send your armor out of the area for training? We don't think so. Please also remember - we mentioned this a few days ago - Pakistan XI Corps Artillery from Peshawar is also doing its turn at the Jhelum ranges, so if you reports about this west-based formation moving, disregard the reports unless you hear from us.

    • Last, Mandeep tells us that 16 Division has returned to its station at Pano Aqil (V Corps) with at least two of its brigades. You may recall Mandeep had alerted us this division had disappeared from its regular station, He is still waiting for confirmation on what happened. We mention this in case some bright spark picks up reports that 16 Division is moving east and thinks this means more reinforcement of the India front. This division is India front based and is one of the two defensive divisions for the desert sector, and we were quite baffled as to why it moved.

    • On the Indian side Mandeep is in India, and our agreement is that anything he says about India cannot be published. Sensible, you don't want your sources accusing you of providing classified information - both Mandeep and the Editor are Indian citizens subject to India law.

    • That said: the news reports of Indian II Strike Corps (Ambala) and Indian X Corps (Bhatinda - same corps we said is opposite Multan Sector) are simply doing their winter training. The Indians are deliberately putting pressure on the Pakistanis, so all we can say is that if you choose to regard the movements of these two corps as part of India's plans to attack Pakistan, the Government of India will not be unhappy (think Governor Palin wink wink). We must very clearly state that Mandeep has not commented on the Indian movements, even personally, to us. This information is from the Editor's side.

    • But one rumor is likely correct according to Mandeep. He gave us permission to say that Orbat.com can assume Israeli Air Forces officers are in Northwest India, though he won't confirm it. Before anyone gets excited: India has a lot of Israeli equipment and just as a precaution it makes sense for the Israelis to come take a look see at what's up. Then, too, the Israelis may simply be paying a routine visit - remember, this is also the season for air exercises.

    • We say this because with the intel biz, specially when you are dealing with fast-breaking developments at a time of crisis, its critical to hold your horses and not jump to conclusions. No matter how pressing the need, you must always exhaust all other explanations before saying "This is why the dog is not barking". Okay, if you are a media person, to hold your horses is to let others scoop you in case something happens, but then none of us at Orbat.com are media persons. we do not, under any conditions, want to add to the hysteria that's already going on.

    • Pakistan pilots sleeping in their boots Look at where that information comes from. Its from the Pakistan military as "leaked' to the press. The Pakistanis are saying they've got two squadrons on high alert. Hello, people. If we were the Pakistanis, we'd be saying the entire blooming air force is sleeping in their boots. You want to deter India, you don't make soothing noises.

    • Personally, the Editor finds sleeping in his boots tres uncomfortable. He prefers his blue bunny slippers in case he has to make an emergency get away. Since the advent of Mrs. R. the Fourth (now just another ex Mrs R.) the Editor has had no occasion to flee irate husbands determined to rearrange his face and other parts of his anatomy, so he has had no occasion in the last 31 years to sleep in his blue bunny slippers.  He does concede that piloting your fighter interceptor in your blue bunny slippers may be - er - uncomfortable. But those are the choices you make if you join the air force.

    • On the financial market crash We forget to mention something else the youngster said during his impromptu lecture yesterday. One place the quants were at fault was in their statistical analysis of unlikely events. The reality is different from the math: for some reason (which the Editor certainly does not have the math to understand) statistically improbable events are actually much more likely to happen than the formulas say - the so called Black Swan event. But here too, the traders are at fault. Being in the trenches they see prices go way up and way down with no rational reason, all the time. They had a responsibility to tell the quants this.

    • And then you think the editor is crazy because he believes he will win Miss Universe. Remember the Black Swan . Also, remember quantum tunneling: true, the editor may have to wait 10^1,000,000,000,000 years before he becomes Miss Universe, but it could happen this very instant. Besides, no one said it would be easy for the Editor to win Miss Universe.

    • Talking about quants, the Editor gets a bit confused every time this word is used because the only quant he had any experience with was Mary Quant, the designer famed for her miniskirts. Ah yes, London in the 'Sixties was a great place to be. Too bad the Editor was always on work. He did see a Mary Quant miniskirt at 1500 meters once. Yes, we know you scoff, and you will say its near impossible to see a Mary Quant miniskirt at 3 meters, the things are so ruddy short, but he had good eyesight them. For a class MQ mini, see www.vam.ac.uk.  Micros came later. And then you complain you never learn anything from orbat.com.

     

    0230 December 26, 2008

     

    What Went Wrong With World Financial Markets

     

    • One's analysis of events always depends on one's analytical framework, one's starting assumptions and biases in deciding which facts are important and which are not. So we've been hearing a lot from the media how greed  and venality has led to the collapse of the world's financial markets, and it is all true. But as we learned today, it is not all the truth. There are other factors.

    • We learned this because the youngster - the one who plays poker, the stock market, and women, while simultaneously doing ten other things including reading heavy duty philosophy and the mathematics of risk - stopped by. He was feeling sorry for his solitary old dad, who was spending his Christmas the way he spends any non-school day, working at the computer, listening to opera arias of unrequited love, and eating his holiday dinner: 4 ounces of spaghetti with 1/2 ounce of butter and a pinch of salt - that is also his dinner every single night, takes 30-seconds of prep time and 120-seconds to eat. So the youngster generously donated 25 minutes of his time as a Christmas present - in return for a $25 gift card - and also gave a concise lecture on the collapse of markets.

    • Basically, he said, you have the traders and you have the financial quants. The latter are PhDs in math and come up with the mathematical models that the traders use.

    • The quants tend to have only one foot on earth; the rest of them is contemplating complicated mathematical mysteries. The traders are very practical people whose heads hurt if they have to differentiate X^3+2X^2+5 = 0. Which is to say, math is not their thing, let alone the arcane math of the quants.

    • When the quant hands over a model, she tells the trader: "This is just a theoretical model, you have to keep me informed how it correlates to reality so I can refine the mode; continuously." The traders are interested solely in if the model works or not, and if it works, they have neither time nor inclination nor knowledge to give the quants feedback. This last is kind of obvious: you must talk to the quant in her own language, but no one speaks their language outside of 5th Dimensional ducks.

    • So the quant's model may not only have deep flaws, because she doesn't understand the traders and the traders don't understand her, correction doesn't take place as needed, and fatal friction can build up in the model.

    • Now, every quant knows about Reversion to the Mean - indeed, even your editor as a simple high-school math teacher knows about the concept. Basically this says what goes up must come down and what goes down must come up. Every poker plays knows about this too, and the trick of being a successful poker player is to double your bet if things are going your way, and to halve your bet if they are not. (Identifying if things are or not going your way depends in your knowing a great deal of the mathematics of poker.)

    • In the process of doubling or halving, you as the player have to be completely unattached to your ego. You have to have a Zen-like detachment and paradoxically care for the game but not for the money. If you start caring for the money, you get attached to it, and you start making bad decisions.

    • So you can see where we're going with this. The traders at first kept winning so they kept doubling. They got attached to the money. They forgot about Reversion to the Mean.

    • The problem with the derivatives was that after the quants finished chopping up financial instruments into equations only they could follow, and then reassembling them into new instruments, no one who is not a 5th Dimensional Rubber Duck had the slightest clue of what the instruments were worth. None knew how to value them. No one had any idea of what was going on: all they knew is that if you closed your eyes, whistled every third bar of the Star Spangled Banner, rubbed your lucky rabbit foot a certain way - lucky for everyone but the rabbit, of course - refused to cross the street if the 17th car in line was a 1985 Black Honda with a right-hand mirror missing, and left exactly 1/333rd of your Starbucks coffee undrunk in the container, your money would double. We have not as yet mentioned you must also be wearing your boyfriend's hot pink panties, strumming Beethoven's Fifth on a guitar made in 1967, July 1st in a plant in Lubbock, Texas and that you paid exactly $23.23 for, plus various other things - you don't expect the Editor to give away free all the secrets he learned during the youngster's visit.

    • No one saw that in the quant's formulas it specifically said - Line 63,448 - that if the geese above are flying in a V formation with 7 geese to port and 13 to starboard, and heading 273 at 6.5 knots with wind speed 3.1 knots with heading 299, outside temperature at 1000-meters altitude inversely proportional to the temperature on Titan in the Year of Our Lord 660, barometric pressure deviating by 7 millibars from that recorded at the Czar's Winter Palace in Leningrad on the day of the Russian Revolution, you should NOT double your bet.

    • No goods/service made by humans are worth more or less what someone else is willing to pay for them. Nothing has intrinsic value. So one day, the trader was wearing his girlfriend's pink panties when he should have been wearing his boyfriend's (didn't you read the equation on Line 120,561?), in accordance with Chaos Theory, the chappie the trader was trying to sell a bunch of derivatives to, and who trusted neither quants nor traders said: "What a minute, Old Boy, what exactly is the financial instrument I am paying a gazzilion dollars for worth?"

    • And the walls came tumbling down because no one knew. That is no one but the quant, but with last year's Christmas bonus at $5-million, and the trader on target to make it $10-million this year, who has time to ask the quant anything - aside from the problem that when the quant speaks, only the 5D Rubber Duckies understand her.

    • Now - says the youngster who, remember, is speaking from where he stands and so is seeing different things from where others may stand  - if people had remembered the Reversion to the Mean and not gotten emotionally attached to their money (or to put it another way, to the BS they were putting out), they would have been better prepared. They would have learned to talk some Quant, they would have given the feedback the quant wanted, and keeping in mind What Goes Up Must Come Down, they would have been alert, waiting for some spoilsport to say "But what is this worth?", and had a strategy for taking their profit and gradually winding down their positions toward the mean.

    • But since the traders thought the only way was Up, no one had a strategy for Down Since the money used to buy the derivatives was extraordinarily leveraged, all it took is one lender to say: "I'm scared, I want my money back in 24 hours", and you get a Big Crunch implosion the way you had a Big Bang expansion.

    • (If this is sounding increasingly like Peter Pan Land, you are not mistaken: the whole thing depending on everyone believing. The minute ONE person did not believe, the whole construct went Poof."

    • So: to get to what the youngster was saying: The traders are now all pointing accusatory fingers at the quant, breathing heavily*, and saying: "It's all YOUR fault, your model is flawed", whereas the quant is saying: "but you (a) never followed my formula, and (b) you never gave me the feedback that the geese were flying at heading 274."

    • Now, you might assume the youngster is defending the quants, the pure mathematicians. Actually no. He is not a formal quant, being disinclined to spend 7 years swotting to get a Math PhD. He dabbles in Quant-ism, the way he dabbles in trading. He doesn't have it in for one or the other.

    • What he is saying is the dynamics of the situation are such, neither side can understand the other, and there's very little that can be done about it. Miscommunication is inherent in the situation. Another way of phrasing the old military adage: If an order can be misunderstood, it will be understood.

    • So aside from being of general interest, and a rational explanation of why you just lost your life's savings and your house, you will immediately see why we have discussed this in so much detail. Replace "trader" with "field officer" and "quant" with "Pentagon", you will see the issue is not why America is messing up the GWOT, the issue is: its absolutely a miracle that America is doing SOME things right. The GWOT is one of those things that is simply too complex for anyone to make any sense of it.

    • Anyone who is into problem solving - as is your editor - knows that if the existing paradigm does not work, you have to stop beating up the paradigm to make it conform to the results you want. You have to tear the whole sketch paper up and start work on a fresh sheet, on a fresh paradigm.

    • The same applies for India in its dealings with Pakistan. A number of readers have been asking "What would you do given the South Asia situation?" 

    • As someone who has studied the military options for near 40 years and seen none lead anywhere productive, the Editor today threw out his sketch paper and started with a blank sheet,

    • Then the answer becomes very simple. (a) Declare every Pakistani an Indian dual-national; (b) reduce to zero all tarrifs on all Pakistani goods that could be exported to India; (c) buy those goods even if cheaper alternatives are available elsewhere, if neccessary, dig a big hole and bury the goods; (d) buy up every available share on the Karachi Stock Exchange; (e) eliminate all restrictions on Indian companies wanting to invest in Pakistan - insure the risk.

    • Has the editor gone bonkers? No. Never more sane and all that. Does anyone have a better and cheaper idea?

    • *The reason the traders are breathing heavily is that the quant - remember, we said "she" - has chosen to dress provocatively for the confrontation. Plus she is hot. So she is having an effect on the traders. Pretty soon they will forget what it is they came to see her for and be begging her for a date. In many ways it is good that men are such mindless creatures. If they are gasping and panting after hot mathematical Quants, they are not blowing up the world just because the Button says "Under NO conditions should you press this Doomsday button."

     

    0230 December 25, 2008

     

    At the Editor's high school, one teacher told the students not to say "Merry Christmas" because this could hurt the sentiments of the non-Christian students. Lets leave aside the small point that 85% of Americans are Christians. Christmas, as we should not have to point out, is a contraction of Christ Mass. It is not a secular holiday, but a religious holiday. Thanksgiving is a secular holiday. When the Politically Correct Police start telling the majority-by-far that they cannot make public expression of the most important day of their religion, then there is no need to worry about the barbarians overthrowing our civilization. We're doing a great job ourselves. (Truth-in-editorials disclosure: the Editor is not a Christian.)

     

    What Does India Hope To Achieve?

     

    • That is the question we asked our South Asia correspondent, Mandeep Singh Bajwa: what does India hope to achieve by making a retaliatory strike against Pakistan? We asked him in preference to political analysts, because we are not interested in what they think. We're more interested in what the Indian military thinks - if it is doing anything thinking to begin with. This is not an insult to the Indian military, simply a reminder that as far as the military is considered it is completely subordinate to the civil authority and its job is to do what it is told, not to think or not to think. A quite sensible approach, one that America might do well to emulate before the US military completely takes over American foreign policy. Mandeep replies:

      •

    • These attacks will not be a permanent deterrence to Pakistan I feel. They will certainly up the ante as regards terrorist attacks in all forms. It must be understood that  with their widespread poverty and the unmatched ideology of Jihad they have a bottomless fertile recruiting ground of suicide bombers/attackers.

    • What these strikes will do is to give India confidence in itself and further motivation to go in for a vast military/security expansion and modernization program. Politically it will give the ruling party a new dynamic image which augurs well for the upcoming general election.

    • I believe Admiral Mullen had a message to deliver to the Pakistani civil leadership to allow Indian strikes on selective targets. This arrangement would be on the pattern of the tacit Pakistani acquiescence to US aerial and ground attacks on targets within FATA/NWFP. Indian anger is too great for the US to handle.

    • The ultimate solution is the strengthening of democracy within Pakistan and the marginalization of the Army in politics.

      •

    • In other words, India knows no military objective can be achieved, but it has political compulsions to strike.

    • We feel that this is not the way to express political compulsions, because Pakistan will have to strike back for the sake of its political compulsions. And while Pakistan may, under extreme American compulsion, have accepted the logic of US strikes against NWFP, it cannot and will not accept similar logic for an Indian strike.

    • So: We'll keep our readers informed. Meanwhile, good luck India, Pakistan, the US and everyone else. There is great certainty in what seems to be un uncertain situation: you can be 100% sure there is going to be the Mother of All Messes no matter what happens. Some situations are simply not conducive to mortal control and this is one of them.
       

    Uh-Oh, Baby Made A Boo Boo

     

    • Just the other day we supported the US plan to arms Afghan militias. Now that we've seen some details in the International Herald Tribune http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/12/24/asia/24afghan.php we are forced to say: Uh-Oh, Baby Made a Boo Boo.

    • That's because we had no idea the US was going to be stupid about implementing its excellent idea. IHT says 1-200 men in each of Wardak Province's 8 districts will be recruited into the militia. Since the tribes are fractured, US will rely on village councils. Arms and ammunition will be given.

    • We actually have no problems with the parts about the village councils and the arms. Our problem is with the 1-200 men per district. We don't know any Taliban personally, but we can guarantee their reaction will be: "Muhahahahahaaha!"

    • The problem is simple. 1-200 men per district means a few of the bigger villages with 20-30 men. The Taliban will eat these village teams for teatime snacks. The bad guys can mount attacks of 1-500 insurgents without trouble. After they hit the first village, execute the militia and the village elders, the rest of the district will lay down its arms and go into the "There's no one here but us meeces" mode.

    • The Taliban controls somewhere between 85-95% of Wardak Province. What the Americans need to do, if 1-200 men is the maximum they feel is safe for a trial, is to put all of them into a single village, fortify the place with every obstacle and barrier that comes to mind, assure the villagers any dead and injured will be compensated for, pay them a daily allowance for disrupting their lives, make arrangements for 30-minute reinforcements - and station an American rifle platoon in the village. Then you'll see results.

    • Now, the first American battalion has already arrived in Wardak, so we are sure the Americans are making arrangements to back up the village militias. But unless there is a sizeable militia to begin with, there is going to be nothing left to back up after the Taliban come through. As for backing up with airpower, any moron can guarantee you that you're going to get 3-5 civilians killed for every Talib, so that pretty soon the villagers will be screaming at the militia and the Americans to get out.

    • If you are an old timer, you may say: "Wait a minute, the plan your proposing sounds very familiar."

    • Indeed. Its more or less the same plan the US Marines used at one time to pacify areas in their zone in Vietnam. They put a rifle section into each village and also did the development thing etc etc. It worked. This was until some general, no doubt one who was every inch a fighting Marine, said: "We are Marines, we don't wait for the enemy come to us, and we don't disburse our strength in static penny packets. We go looking for the snake and we cut off his head in his lair."

    • The rest, as they say, is history. if you're going to do the modern variant of Search and Destroy in Afghanistan, don't come to us and complain when it doesn't work. Read your own histories.

     

    0230 December 24, 2008

     

    India To Make Retaliatory Strike On December 26?

     

    Text of an E-Mail discussion with Mandeep Singh Bajwa

    • MSB Things are getting hot here. Watch for a retaliatory strike very soon.

    • Orbat.com Is this for real or is India putting additional pressure on the US to act against Pakistan, since the latter is doing nothing to admit responsibility for the Bombay attack or to assure no further attacks take place?

    • MSB The original idea was to put pressure on both the US and the Pakistanis. However GOI is now veering around to the reality that some sort of action is required. A message was sent to the Pakistanis through the US Secretary of State that they have 30 days in which to take some sort of robust action. That month's grace will be over on the 26th.

    • I feel the Americans have accepted that India needs to retaliate. The action will take the form of airstrikes on selected locations, a naval blockade of Karachi with the possibility of the sinking of a few ships, a limited excursion into Pakistani territory. Low-key, calibrated but proving that we mean business.
       

    Curse You, Hermann Kahn

     

    A Commentary on the Theory of Graduated Response - I

    • Forty-seven years have passed since I read Prof. Kahn On Thermonuclear War, where for the first time I encountered the theory of Graduated Response. I have never been interested in theories of nuclear deterrence or nuclear warfighting for the simple reason that one man's religion is another's La La Land, and nuclear deterrence/warfighting is a religion. Not a particularly interesting one, either.

    • It should have been obvious to the most egregious idiot that nothing short of Massive Retaliation made any sense. The reason was that you as Blue cannot set up a game in which you define the rules and then predict how Red will play. Or to say it better, you can make up such a game as long as you accept there is no earthly reason to rely on it. Perhaps you could have done this upto World War I, when the major powers all had a common cultural, religious, economic etc tradition. But you sure could not do it after World War 2 when you started getting other major players with their own traditions of strategic thought - USSR and China being the main ones.

    • Kahn was hugely influential in his time; it may be no exaggeration to say he was the foremost American thinker on strategic nuclear war. Kahn's basic assumption was that Blue is a rational actor, and so is Red, and so when Blue wants to influence Red, he starts off with very low levels of graduates response, building up each time Red fails to behave. In other words, I will smack you once and wait for you to see sense. If you don't, and you smack me back, I will reconsider, and this time smack you two times, and so on, until you see sense.

    • The problem is, who defines "sense"? Who's going to force Red to follow the rules of Blue's game? And often, sense, i.e. rationality, forces Red when he gets the first slap to say: "Blue is not only a fool, he is fatally dangerous. Instead of giving him a slap back, I'd best kill him before he does me any more damage". That was the Soviet position: brutal, simple, direct, and total. Which is not to say some Soviet strategists didn't get drawn into this game, but essentially the Soviets made clear that once the first 10-KT tactical nuke was fired, it was very rapidly going to be Hello Armageddon, Goodbye Earth.

    • In Second Indochina, the US used the conventional version of Graduated Response. Need we speak any further of how useless this theory was? As a reaction to defeat, the US went back to massive retaliation for conventional warfare. In 1990, Saddam Hussain killed not one American when he invaded Kuwait, but the US decided it had to retaliate, and it clobbered him to the ground. Because the US did not follow up - switching to graduated response the minute his military machine was obliterated - Gulf II was required to complete what Gulf I had begun. And even in Gulf II the US refused to fully face the logic of the situation, and once Saddam was overthrown, reverted to Graduated Response and so fought a five year war.

    • Afghanistan is also a great example of the utter uselessness of the theory, but the classic, all time example is Israel's campaign against the Arabs from the First Lebanon War to the present. Enough said.

     

    A Commentary on the Theory of Graduated Response - II

    • One of the oddest aspects of America's takeover of world culture, combined with its weapons technologies - itself a weird combination - is that we all wannabe Americans. Nowhere is this more the case than in India, which is also very odd because this is one country that has brought forward intact its three millennium culture to an extent no one else has, and which used to assume it was superior to everyone, including the déclassé Americans, because of its culture.

    • I don't want to go into how this desire to ape the Americans has become part of the Indian 21st Century mindset. Suffice is to say, as Mandeep alert shows, Indians have bought into graduated response lock-stock-barrel.

    • Now this is weirder than weird, because in the 1990s and twice in 2002 India realized there was no such thing as graduated response. If India went ahead to punish Pakistan for the attack on India's Parliament, Pakistan would escalate, we'd escalate, they'd escalate. The issue came down to: are we willing to fight an all-out war with Pakistan because of a terror attack? India decided the answer was no.

    • So what has changed in 2008 or 2009 that India should now decide it can, and it must, make a controlled attack on Pakistan in retaliation for the Bombay assault? Nothing has changed. So why is India considering such an attack?

    • To answer this, please understand that nothing is more frustrating than the inability to use your overwhelming strength. In 1960, the United States was by far the most powerful nation on earth. But because the Soviets began deploying ICBMs, against which there was no defense, they very, very cheaply stymied American power. Kahn and his generation came up with ever nuttier theories of Graduated Response because they were frustrated at being stymied. America had all this power, what do you mean we can't use it?

    • To understand how foolish were American theories of nuclear warfighting, consider that by the 1980s the Americans embarked on the greatest conventional buildup since 1945. They understood nuclear weapons could not be used in Europe, or anywhere, so they began to build up their conventional strength against the possibility Soviet Group of Forces Germany would decide to Go West. Even the Americans saw nuclear graduated response wasn't worth toilet paper.

    • But what the Americans have not yet seen is that against the terror/insurgent threat, graduated conventional response cannot work. See Somalia and Afghanistan.

    • America can nonetheless get away with a great deal because no one can challenge America in conventional military power.

    • The India-Pakistan case is different. Pakistan and India are in the force ratio of 70 to 100. In a long war, Pakistan will lose. But should India make a calibrated response to Pakistan's gross provocation in Bombay, Pakistan can counter-escalate, leaving India to up the ante - at which point Pakistan ups the ante.

    • Now, is India prepared for all-out war or not? If it is prepared for to face the logic of its calibrated response - which means full-scale war - it should not waste its time with gestures, it should go for war and take the consequences.

    • If it is not prepared to for for all-out war, its calibrated strike will be a bluff, and as anyone who has studied Pakistan knows, the Pakistan will call India's bluff.

    • Did we just say will call? Rephrase that. Will have to call. If Pakistan does not counter-escalate, matching every Indian's step, Pakistan will have to look at itself in the mirror and say: "India is stronger, we accept defeat."

    • Truly, someone has to be certifiably looney to believe that Pakistan will accept the defeat that will come if it does not counter escalate. It will not accept defeat until it can fight no more. Which again puts me in the position of saying: India, if you are to go for anything, go for all-out war. Because if Pakistan keeps counter escalating and you decide to stop at some point, India is the one that will be defeated. Look at the Second Lebanon War. Yes, the Israelis think T'was a Famous Victory, but the idea of war is to impose your will on the other guy, not to feed your own fantasies of greatness. Everyone but the Israelis know they lost that war.

    • So: Graduated Response is a false doctrine with no basis of reality. Face up to that, India. Strike for the kill, or don't strike at all. Do not listen to the Americans and their silly theories of sending signals and messages and precise responses and calibrated strikes and bosh and more bosh.

    • India, we all wannabe cool, hip, and talk American strategic theory lingo, but the reality is - as the BeeGees say, "Its Only Words." The BeeGees say further, "and words are all I have, to say 'I love you'". If all you have is words to say I love you, don't become a lover, baby. I believe the famous British Commando of World War II, Lord Lovatt, is the first to have said that, but we digress.

     

     

    0230 December 23, 2008

     

    • US To Fund Afghan Militias starting in Wardak Province, which is rapidly becoming Taliban territory. US will give money to village councils to pay recruits, but not weapons or ammunition, as the villagers have enough of those.

    • There is a lot of pro and con debate going on. The con side says Afghanistan has 150 major tribal groups and picking sides is futile. Further, these militias could revert to warlord control, undoing one of the US's biggest initiatives, getting rid of these gentlemen. The pro side says, look, this worked like a charm in Iraq; we aren't saying it will work perfectly in Afghanistan, but its worth trying.

    • We support the US move  If you look at why people are joining the Taliban, three reasons emerge. First is security. A hundred Taliban arrive at your village and say join or we kill you, that's a powerful incentive to join. Second is money. Because the villagers have little income, they grow opium for the Taliban and for traffickers, extending the reach of the bad guys. They also join the Taliban as a secure job. Three, the central government is corrupt. Only the Taliban will help if the government is giving you trouble.

    • The third point is not addressable by the militia solution, nor is it meant to be. Its the first and second points the militia solution addresses. An armed militia has a better chance of repelling the Taliban than a group of individuals working together, because a militia implies training, organization, coordination etc. It enhances the authority of the village councils. and if a man can look after his family on the money he gets as a member of militia, he need not have anything to do with the Taliban

    • But what about the point that armed militias could encourage inter-tribal fighting and warlordism?

    • If tribes start fighting each other - which they can do even now - US simply withdraws the money. End of the issue.

    • As for the warlords? We don't see a problem because the United States will be the warlord. If the militias dont do what the US wants, pull the plug.

    • But haven't we been saying the Afghan War is unwinable? Actually, no. We've been saying it cannot be won unless the Pakistan border is sealed, and that has to be done on the Afghan side.

    • This militia thing is not going to win the war. The Taliban are not Al Qaeda in Iraq, foreigners trying to take over a country. The Taliban are indigenous people living on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border; what's more, they are more numerous than AQI ever was by a factor of 20-30 or even more.

    • But: since everyone is out of ideas on how to win Afghanistan without making more sacrifice in the form of more troops, why not try the American idea re. militias? since they will remain in American control all the time, there is much to gain and nothing to lose.

     

    0230 December 22, 2008

     

    • Sri Lanka The battle for the rebel capital of Killinochi continues. We get the impression government troops are advancing, but at most a few hundred meters a day.

    • French Unveil Defense Spending Boost says Aviation Week and Space Technology. French Air Force will get two more Rafale fighters and the Army will get five more helicopters. This is a boost? Yes, we can contain our excitement. French are just as pathetic as everyone else in the matter of defense.

    • Letter from a reader In a recent post you mentioned that you thought it was too late for voting to correct the problems of the US. You had also mentioned a few months ago that your sources in the heartland said the "good old boys" were cleaning their guns in anticipation of more than deer season. I believe you are correct on both counts. So if you were my "cell leader," how would you brief me and my fellow citizens on the plan to set things right?

    • Editor's reply As a guest in this country it would not be right, morally or legally, to say more than general preaching. We've communicated with the reader, and he says he understands.

     

     

    0230 December 21, 2008

     

    • Two PLAN Destroyers Will Set Sail For Anti-Piracy duties on December 26. They will be accompanied by a supply ship. An Iran Navy warship has arrived in the Gulf of Aden. The Chinese indicate they are willing to serve in any way that is required providing it is in accordance with international laws.

    • 'Ware! Incoming - Beer Bottles? One of those stories that warms the heart. A Chinese freighter was boarded by nine pirates. The crew fought a four battle with beer bottles and beer bottle bombs till the pirates moved for a ceasefire. Meanwhile, help arrived in the form of a naval helicopter.

    • But look at the significance: the pirates seem to have gone out of their way not to use their firepower on the civilian crew. Its only in Disney movies the good guys fight off the evil pirates with beer bottles.

    • To us it's also significant that the Chinese crew did not just tamely submit. They battled for their ship. Interesting.

    • Photograph: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article5368675.ece

    • India Ups Pressure On Pakistan because the latter is, according to India, refusing to take substantive steps against terrorists. India declares it reserves the military option. Stratfor.com adds to this information by saying the Indians realize a strike will solve nothing, but they may have to do something, simply because of public pressure. If this is correct, such leaks are again, part of the pressure India is bringing on Pakistan - and the US.

    • NATO/US Supply Convoys Attacked Again The attacks are minor: one of the 8 depots in Peshawar was rocketed and insurgents destroyed two empty tanker trucks returning to Pakistan, killing three. Pakistan says it will put 1,200 Frontier Corps paramilitary troops on convoy duty, but these men are locally recruited and usually choose a live and let live policy of cooperation with the insurgents. US has put out request for proposals for private companies to provide armed guards to convoys. We remain unclear on what 10 security guards are supposed to do if the convoy is attacked by several hundred insurgents, though posting guards will help against minor acts of banditry such as the attack on the two tankers.

    • US Considering Additional Three Brigades For Afghanistan in addition to the three already committed as reinforcements. A Combat Aviation Brigade is to leave for Afghanistan early next year. US/NATO will focus, in 2009, on good governance in Afghanistan. All excellent ideas, but with the troops, its too little too late; as for the governance, good luck. US hasn't had particularly success in Iraq, just as it didn't in Vietnam. In fairness, good governance was low on the list priorities.

    • Iraq Rejects Law To Give Legal Cover to Non-US Troops that will be in the process of withdrawing after December 31, 2008, the last day under the UN mandate. Just the Iraqis flexing their muscles, something will be worked out.

    • The Coalition of the Willing is hightailing it out of Iraq at high speed. That COTW was always a joke, so it hardly matters.

    • A major rationale given for the US staying in Iraq is that the enemy should not see the US has been forced out of another country a la Somalia. But the US has been forced out anyway, not by the enemy but by its ally. Fortunately, the US has won the war. As for winning the peace, our suggestion is: leave that part of the business to the Iraqis.

    • A Note On the 1999 Air War Against Serbia We learn that less than 1 in a thousand attack sorties caused significant collateral damage. If so, this is a very impressive performance by US/NATO. We say this despite controversy on the US definition of collateral damage. Even if the number is ten times higher, that is still very good.

    • Of course, the destruction of FRY military material was downright pathetic, but you are never going to convince airpower advocates that unless you have an Iraq type geography, air interdiction seldom achieves proportionate results. Even your editor, who has always been extremely skeptical of air interdiction gets highly impressed at photos/motion images of fighter bombers doing their thing. All that noise, speed, and explosion is oddly soothing to the male mind, no matter holes are being dug in the ground.

    • Another Blast From The Past In the PAVN's final offensive against the Republic of Vietnam, its tanks advanced at a rate of 30 kilometers a day, one of the fastest sustained armor advances in history. Very impressive.

     

    0230 December 20, 2008

    • Pirates Undeterred By Naval Patrols says International Herald Tribune. The pirates know they will be released and can get back to work. Pirates are now operating in swarms of 20-30 boats. In our opinion, they have anticipated the deployment of armed guards on merchant ships: a swarm will have 80-100 pirates, and if they are willing to take a few casualties, they can overwhelm the half-dozen guards or so on a ship. Even to provide that many guards will be costly.

    • An American law professor says that the law of the sea has been clear on pirates for 100 years: they can be tried in the home country of the apprehender. since the law of the sea requires anyone able to do so to come to the aid of a ship in danger, it does not matter if the attached ship and its rescuer are of the same flag.

    • In view of this, we wonder why everyone is getting their knickers in a twist about lacking authority to try the pirates. Usual wimping out by the so called advanced countries.

    • Meanwhile, PRC is to undertake its first naval deployment in support of anti-piracy patrols.

    • http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/12/16/africa/pirates.php?page=1

    • Oil Sinks To $33 before rising to $41 for February delivery. We reckon people either expect the world economy to start improving very soon or expect the production cuts to start biting. If neither happens

    • We were delighted to know that according to the US Government, American oil demand is not expected to increase to 2030. While the story we read was unclear on how this estimate has been derived, it's reasonable to expect that since Detroit looks like its going to be reorganized for more fuel efficient cars, demand for motor gasoline will fall substantially.

    • Renewable energy will increase 3% a year in the same period. We have a feeling this figure is not correct: 3% a year means the use of renewables will double every 25-years. This does not reflect the very rapid actual increase. Wind, for example, will increase from 17 GW at present to 304 GW, or 20% of US electricity demand, by 2030 (US DOE http://www.energy.gov/news/6253.htm) New York Times says solar in the US could increase 30 times by 2016, just seven years from now. The largest US Solar project appears to be one planned for Las Vegas, 1.2 GW. And the largest in the world planned is a 5 GW project for the Rann of Kutch, India. http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/09/six-new-solar-power-plants-pulverize-old-records.php

    • Meanwhile, more than a dozen US companies have formed a battery consortium. They're looking for government funding and saying that just about every other battery venture in the world is supported by governments.

    • Letter from James Freemon Orbat.com says:

      How many times do we have to repeat this" Americans, you are ruled by a bunch of venal incompetents, at every level. Unless you revolt, ... you, the American people, are going to keep getting shafted, again and again and again.
    • People don't revolt until all hope is lost, until they have been reduced to abject misery, until they are ready to fight tanks in the street with bottles of gasoline.The American people are not ready for a revolution. We fear the unknown new ruling class which might arise after a revolution. We are still quite comfortable with our known crooks. We happily live under the misconception that those we 'elect' are just like us. They still leave us a few crumbs. We convince ourselves we can live with that...for now.
  • Letter from A Moderate Pakistani You and your correspondent in Pakistan understand well the situation on ground. Kayani (this is the correct spelling of his name, the one he uses himself) is more deliberate and more collegial than Musharraf.  All of us in South Asia and Afghanistan need to be very careful that we do not let our nationalistic fervor blind us to the many threats within each country. Yes, the army will act in its own and the national interest before it does what the US seeks. It has always done that. And the US may well continue making mistakes in its relationships inside Pakistan. India and Pakistan need to come together to resolve issues quietly. Not via public statements.
  • As for the LeT, the ambivalence must end. The Frankenstein’s monster is already out of control. The so-called operation against LeT was run by the civilian agencies not the army. The army does not have any spare infantry troops left to mount an operation inside the Punjab. The operation was launched during the Eid holidays and it was a sight seeing police raiding empty, closed offices and sealing them. With all the hoopla preceding these actions, everybody worth capturing in the LeT had taken off.


     

    •  

    0230 December 19, 2008

     

    • Head of Pakistan LeT NOT In Custody says the Pakistan High Commissioner to India. The earlier report saying he had been detained was wrong. In fact, no one knows where he is. Read
      http://www.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Incursion_Masood_Pak_keeps_flipping/articleshow/3859972.cms   

    • We'd figured the man would be "arrested" but permitted to operate from his house; even we, cynical as we are, did not figure he would not be arrested in the first place.

    • This makes sense: why would Pakistan wanted to turn in a man who heads a "non-state" group which is actually a state group and follows the state's orders? Hint, people: the civil government of Pakistan is not the state.

    • We are not bent out of shape at the news for one thing we believe the LeT is being used as a red herring.

    • What's more interesting to us is this: the civilian government assures the US the man will be detained; and issues orders for his detention and announces the deed is done. Clearly, however, the military is defying the civil authority, and quite openly too.

    • We feel that something we have expected for a long time is happening: the worm is turning, the dog is tired of being kicked by his master. Enough Pakistanis have figured out that appeasing the US is not worth it anymore - if it ever was.

    • Enough Pakistanis are saying: "First, how can we destroy our own interests to serve the Americans, and second, no matter what we do the Americans will be unhappy and want more. And third, America has clearly allied with our mortal enemy, India. We do not want to be a 4th rate country dependent on the goodwill of India and the US to survive. If we're going to go down, let us do so with honor, and for all America's strength and India's strength, we don't think the two together have the guts to take us down."

    • Yes, yes, this is not what the New York Times hears when it talks to the Pakistan military. But when the NYT or whoever talk to the Pakistan military, they talk to a few, selected, sophisticated senior officers who know how to play the US on a fishing line, and they speak from a script. When Orbat.com talks to the Pakistan Army, we talk to the "common" officer and we can assure our readers that without exception they voice views of America that would turn this page blue if repeated verbatim.

    • These men are of the post-1971 generation, and their hatred of perfidious Columbia is something that has to be believed.

    • A lot of people in Washington are falling over themselves to pat themselves on the back on how the new Pakistani Chief of Army Staff is so honest, and sincere, and cooperative to America.

    • Well, babaloos and babyloos, we got news for you, and we've been saying this since General Kiyani became chief: yes, he is honest and he is sincere. And it follows from there you cannot buy him like you bought Musharraf, and as a patriotic Pakistani he will fight for his country no matter what it costs him. If you are the threat - and, sorry about that, but America is the threat to Pakistan and not the insurgents and fundamentalists - he will fight you to his end.

    • Now, how many times do we have to repeat this, sounding more and more like the Ancient Mariner with each iteration? We are not saying that Washington as a collective whole is fooling itself re. the Pakistan Army chief. We've said this before: there are large numbers of very experienced Americans in intelligence, state, Pentagon etc who know exactly what's going on. But they are not being listened to.

    • Last, we implore the Washington lot to understand something. General Kiyani is not the dictator of the Pakistan Army. He is the leader of a group of 9-10 three-star generals who command the fighting troops. This group, the so-called Corps Commanders is the real determinant of Pakistan's fate. Even if General Kiyani were pro-American - which he is not - the Corps Commanders are the ones with the power.

    • General Musharraf went not because the Americans wanted him to go. The Corps Commander could care one hoot anymore about what America wants. They wanted him gone because the Corps Commanders decided his stay would eventually plunge Pakistan into civil war. The Corps Commanders did NOT want to stand against the will of the people. And if anyone in Washington thinks the will of the Pakistani people is to kneel and kiss Sam's ample tushy, they need brain transplants. Earthworm brains will do fine, anything is an improvement on the current brains.

    • Yes, the Corps Commanders fear America. Who in his right mind does not fear America. But folks, we've said this a bazillion times: push a man too far, and he'll fight, even in the full knowledge he's going to lose.

    • Everything we hear out of Pakistan is that the joint US-India pressure on Pakistan post-Bombay is just a bit more humiliation than the Pakistanis are willing to bear. Kiss the White Man's tushy at the point of a gun, they'll do that while planning to plant a boot on the tush. But kiss India's tushy too? No, sir, the Pakistanis would really rather die.

    • So, good luck Washington. You're the ones that broke all the contents of the local Pottery Barn - anyone remember the Jihad against the Red Army? so you fix it. As for the Editor, he's off for more chocolate.

    • Take That You Greedy Oil Gluts! The day after OPEC says it will cut production by 2.2 million, oil drops $4 to $36/bbl. Three reasons:

    • One, as we'd mentioned, the speculators have gone home. Two, the world is in recession. Three, we read that many OPEC members are cheating on the original 2-million cut and there is widespread expectation that they will cheat on this new cut. Many OPEC members have stored loads of fatted hogs in their cellers and can ride out years of low price. But many have to have money now regardless of the price: $40/bbl is better than $0/bbl, and so is $36/bbl, and so is $25/bbl - that's the low estimate before prices start to rise again in the spring due to demand increases.

     

    0230 December 18, 2008

     

    • Saudi's Nobility The country says by raising prices to $75/bbl, it is doing a noble thing. At $40/bbl, it says, marginal producers cannot operate. OPEC says it hopes people appreciate it is raising prices to bring stability to the market. "I hope we surprised you. If not, we have to do something about it," says the OPEC head. Like what, Bozo? Cut output more than the 4.2 million barrels you have cut or will cut by January 1st?

    •  We think $10,000/ton for wheat supplied to OPEC states is fair, just as Saudi thinks $75/bbl is fair. And we think an Airbus 380 at $1-billion is just right to provide aircraft manufacturers to continue producing jumbos. $50,000/Kilowatt for nuclear plants sounds just about right. And a Toyota Tundra at $250,000 would be perfect, we think.

    • We'd love to know why the world tolerates these buffoons. The reason the price collapsed was (a) speculators got trashed in the global financial crisis; (b) the economic slowdown has led to demand reduction. When demand falls, the price falls. If you raise prices when demand is falling, you need a nice comfortable padded room at St. Elizabeth's in Washington DC.

    • If the price has to be $75, why aren't the consuming nations taxing oil to keep it at that price and using the taxes for something productive in their own countries as opposed to handing it over to totalitarian regimes who use the money to damage the west?

    • US Seeks Alternate Routes For Afghan Cargo With Pakistani truckers going on strike because they are fed up of being blown up despite the bribes they pay - there are so many people in the extortion business that paying one doesn't mean you have safe passage - the US is looking at alternatives through Central Asia. All alternatives will enormously jack up the cost.

    • And - let's do a Sarah Palin blink-blink here - the Western Afghanistan tribes will start ambushing supply convoys to get money, just as the Taliban and Pakistani tribes have been doing, you betcha.

    • But the fools in Washington who come up with these schemes cannot get their heads out of unmentionable orifices to show some sense. The Taliban are not ambushing convoys to hurt the Western war effort. They take their money and they escort the convoys to safe harbor. This is called banditry. So just because you shift routes, doesn't mean of a sudden Afghan tribes let convoys through for free. Still further, in every transit country in Central Asia you will see bandit gangs spring up to extort money. The situation will get worse because you are paying far more for transport because land movement is fearfully expensive vs. sea movement, and you'll still have to pay protection money.

    • Why is this so hard for Washington to see? The stupidest nematode can see that in a war zone convoys need military escort. The Pakistan Government says they cannot do more than they are doing, obviously, as they want to stop the convoys altogether and for the West to lose the war. The entire American way of war has become unsustainable and irrational. We used to blame secretary Rumsfeld for the stupidity. We're going to have to apologize to him, because his successors military and political have been just as stupid.

    • "Welcome To America - Where Stupidity Is Not Accidental, But a Deliberate Practice." That should be our new motto.

    • And What About This Madoff Person? He rips off $50-billion smackers over years and years, and no one has the least clue? Why is anyone trusting the US Government, banks, corporations, and what have you? How many times do we have to repeat this" Americans, you are ruled by a bunch of venal incompetents, at every level. Unless you revolt, unless you make the crooks wear pink panties and live in tented jails in the desert, unless you give them only as much food as they earn breaking rocks at 10 cents an hour, and when they die from exhaustion/malnutrition you charge their families $10-million for each body or else you leave the bodies for nature's recycling, you, the American people, are going to keep getting shafted, again and again and again.

    • The people who rule you are reducing millions to poverty, having destroyed the jobs of millions and wiped out their savings. YOU - yes, YOU - are going to be eating beans and rice in your middle age, living in one room (if you're lucky), and as for medical care, just forget about it. You aren't going to be able to afford it.

    • Don't you care that these people are just as rich - oh, yes, Boo Hoo, they now have only $5-billion instead of $10-billion, oh the woe, the immense hardship, the shame for their wives and children - while you will be living in poverty?

    • If you don't care, carry on handing over your nickels and cents to those who rule, and stick a big "Kick Me" sign to your backside. If you do care, do something: and voting in an election is not going to cut the mustard. Its too late for that, aside from which, hello, people, the ruling class is always the ruling class, neither the color nor the superficial ideology matter.

     

    0230 December 17, 2008

     

    • First Actual Pakistan in NWFP Orbat Publicly Available (see link above) is made available by Mandeep Singh Bajwa. Pakistan has the equivalent of six divisions in the NWFP, very approximately about a quarter of its Army.

    • Rumored Assassination Attempt On Zimbabwe Air Chief  he is said to have been traveling to one of his farms - he was given several former white-owned farms by President Mugabe - when he was ambushed and wounded in the arm. He is in hospital recovering.

    • For many points of view this attack is unfortunate because Mugabe will now taken further revenge on the people. Already there is talk of banning the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, which won the last election but the results were not recognized by the tyrant. MDC has always emphasized its commitment to peaceful means.

    • But perhaps violence is the last resort left to the people of Zimbabwe since Mugabe continues to crush them more and more each day and the world has abandoned them.

    • The charming air chief commanded the 5th Brigade during the Matabeleland repression - some 20,000 people were murdered mainly by this unit. He also provided the military muscle for the seizure of white farms in 2000, and the slum demolitions of 2005. People like the air chief are supposed to have forced Mugabe to retain power after the election despite his inclination to step down: while Mugabe was offered immunity from prosecution, the opposition refused to give the same to his military and police chiefs.

    • Is the West Winning In Afghanistan - and should more troops be sent? For a middle-of-the-road British analysis, read http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/the-big-question-is-the-west-winning-in-afghanistan-ndash-and-should-more-troops-be-sent-1192734.html

    • Indian Army Worried About Expansion of National Security Guard Times of India says with the Army already short 9,000 officers of its authorized 46,000, there is concern that the proposed doubling of the NSG will create even more strain. The army provides half the officers for the NSG, which is - for India - an unusually officer-heavy organization to begin with. Worse, the shortage hits mainly the fighting arms - infantry, artillery, and cavalry, and these are the arms that will have to provide additional officers.

    • The Army is none too happy about the extra other ranks it have to send to the NSG, either. The Army is already manning the Rashtriya Rifles, a 66 battalion CI force; each battalion is over 1000 men. Though some increase in manpower was permitted, it was insufficient to cover the RR.

    • For decades now, Indian infantry battalions, with an authorized strength of 22 officers, have been engaged in operations with just 12-14. In the Indian Army, platoon commanders are not officers, but a special category called Junior Commissioned Officers. The JCOs come from the ranks and are the backbone of the Army. So the 22 officers authorized is not an exact comparison with western infantry battalions, but still, Indian infantry battalions tend to approach 900 men; you take away the officer commanding, his second in command, and six majors leading companies (4 rifle, 1 support, 1 administration), you get 4-6 officers for the whole rest of the battalion including battalion staff. Not good.

    • The problem is very simple. Army life has become very hard because of constant CI and large-scale operations; meanwhile, officer pay has not kept pace with the civil sector; the civil bureaucracy has consistently reduced the standing of officers compared to its own standing, and now a young man has a hundred better opportunities.

    • In the Editor's salad days, 50 years ago, a third of his graduating class of ~26-27 senior boys joined the services because it was the most prestigious career. The editor was turned down because of eyesight, one of the 4 really lucky breaks of his life. (The second  lucky event was being turned away by the USMC in 1967 because he could not prove he was over 18 years of age and did not require paternal consent. Young people are quite crazy, and the editor was crazier than most. His subsequent efforts to go to Vietnam as a civil development officer was vetoed by his then wife - he forgets the circumstances. That was the third break. The fourth was when he arrived back in India determined on revolution, he was "adopted" by a mentor who turned the editor's youthful energies to - let us just say - less risky avenues. They were still quite risky, but the danger of being killed was not as high. The danger of spending many, many years in an unpleasant prison was very high.)

    • But: we digress. These days neither is becoming a military officer continued prestigious, you have several thousand officers who want to resign for much better paying civil jobs.

     

    0230 December 16, 2008

     

    Interview with Mandeep Singh Bajwa: Latest Developments in the GWOT and in Bombay Attack

     

    • Orbat.com Is Pakistan withdrawing troops from its western front back to the east in anticipation of Indian military action?

    • MSB No. In any case, the Indians have ruled out a military strike.

    • Orbat.com What about reports that Pakistan IV Corps is moving troops?

    • MSB The Pakistanis are saying they are undertaking routine winter training and this is correct. IV Corps Artillery is at the Jhelum firing ranges. When it returns, XI Corps Artillery (Peshawar) will occupy the ranges. Also, IV Corps is a holding formation for the protection of the front Lahore-Kasur. It stays put during mobilization.

    • Orbat.com All this is routine training?

    • MSB Indeed it is. Also, Pakistan has decided to deemphasize CI ops and revert to its conventional operations posture.

    • Orbat.com Does this mean Pakistan is no longer committed to the US-led GWOT?

    • MSB I don't care to speculate. In any case, the Pakistan-US relationship is your area, not mine!

    • Orbat.com True. We're revealing no secrets in saying the Pakistanis are doing everything possible to avoid closing up on the ground with the insurgents. Lot of artillery, air strikes, helicopter strikes, blowing holes in the mountains. Sound and Fury, that sort of thing.

    • MSB Doesn't seem to be much close-in fighting in the insurgency hit areas which shows the weakness of the Pakistan Army. They're pretty keen to withdraw from there.

    • Orbat.com Now to Bombay. Our information is this was a straight ISI operation. Some of the operatives may have had previous ties with LeT, but LeT as the hidden organization behind Jamaat Dawa is not responsible. The prisoner is misleading his interrogators by claiming LeT is behind this; the Indians know he is lying and for now are letting him have his say without changing their cover story, that LeT mounted the operation.

    • MSB I am not at liberty to discuss the interrogation. But as you know the ISI takes care to wipe off its tracks and otherwise always plans highly deniable operations. Which is why Zardari/Gilani/Quereshi and the Pakistan media are able to trot out their claims of 'non-state players' with such glib ease. There's no doubt that its an outright ISI operation. There are rumors of a high ranking defector from the ISI currently in India who'll be trotted out at an appropriate moment to expose the whole conspiracy.

    • Orbat.com We were not particularly impressed with the performance of the Marine Commandos and the National Security Guard. Though in the daily blog we've defended the NSG because obviously this was an unforeseen type of attack and the circumstances were both difficult and complicated. Your opinion?

    • MSB At most 2 Marine Commando teams of 7-8 men were actually deployed as a stop-gap, an immediate response while the NSG arrived. The Marine Commandos were withdrawn immediately on the arrival of the NSG to avoid getting in their way. Makes sense. That didn't stop their senior officers from grand-standing though. They are are trained in hostage rescue and special intervention but the NSG are the masters in the game. The Marine Commandos primarily protect assets like Bombay High and other installations from terror/conventional attacks. The NSG's performance left a lot to be desired. But they had to avoid collateral casualties. In any case against suicide attacks any operation has to be necessarily limited in terms of quick success.

    • Orbat.com Media says four JD men have been freed, but Pakistan says its because they were ordinary folks with no link to any terror operation. Media also Pakistan Government is refusing to let foreign investigators near the detained Jaamat Dawa/LeT leaders.

    • MSB Are you surprised?
       

     

     

    0230 December 8, 2008

     

    • Pakistan Insurgents Destroy 96 Afghanistan-Bound Supply Trucks Amazingly, this attack took place right on Peshawar's Outer Ring Road, not in some some remote mountain area. Most of the trucks appear to have been carrying Humvees.

    • Coalition sends ~350 trucks/day with ~7000-tons of supplies via Pakistan. For some months, insurgents have been attacking these supply convoys.

    • Pakistan Army Raids Two LeT camps We suppose we should be grateful the Pakistanis have at least made a show, but LeT etc. emptied their camps the day after the Bombay attack. A sensible precaution.

    • US still maintains that the attack was made probably by "non-state actors". As far as we are concerned, this is a distinction without a difference. These word games are neccessary to avoid labeling Pakistan a terror sponsor.

    • Indian Sources Say Pakistan Is Shifting Troops East First one has to appreciate that the Pakistan Army does not want to fight insurgents in NWFP. It has been doing so in a half-hearted way only because the US is arm-twisting.

    • So its logical to assume that  the Pakistanis will use the excuse of possible Indian retaliation to move back troops withdrawn from the eastern frontier. and the nice part is, there is nothing the US can do about it. US can say "we guarantee India will not attack you", and personally we do not believe India will attack. But Pakistan can retort: "what's the worth of your guarantee and please show us that you control the Indians to such an extent they wont attack." Seeing as India is a sovereign country, obviously the US cannot prove it has control.

    • We've said this before: the Pakistanis are past masters at running rings around the US. From everything we hear they are getting more and more fed up of being forced to participate in the war against the Taliban. Fortunately, the US is not without cards of its own: Pakistan's economy is in bad straits, and right now the US really is a big factor in calming down India.

    • But all in all, you cannot have an alliance where the two sides are holding guns to the other's head. The internal dynamics of the relationship are such there is going to be major trouble.

    • US Says Alaska Missile Failed To Deploy Countermeasures The recent missile interception was supposed to simulate an attacker deploying countermeasures such as dummy warheads to confuse the defense. But we learn - to our surprise - that countermeasures are not easily deployed by an attacker. We admit that strategic weapons are not the Editor's thing, but this is nonetheless the first time he sees a reference to this problem.

    • Its very hard to keep track of the US ABM system because there are so many different parts of it, but we are told the US is working on yet another interceptor missile, separate from the heavy, long-range interceptor deployed in Alaska and California, the Standard 3, THAAD, and Patriot. anyone have wisdom to share on this new missile?

    • Meanwhile, Raytheon continues to develop what we consider a marvelous hit-to-kill multiple warhead. This warhead has several sub warheads, each of which can control all the others and each of which apparently sends information back on the incoming enemy warhead. So you get multiple chances to hit the incoming warhead; of course the system will also handle multiple independent warheads. The warheads are miniaturized to the extent that a warhead gyros are smaller than a dime. Impressive.

    • In Other Weapons News AFP reports December 2 that Brazil in April agreed to sell 100 medium range anti-radar missiles to the Pakistanis for $110-million. If you didn't know Brazil was making ARMs, not to worry: Jane's says Brazil has managed to keep the program secret.

     

    0230 December 7, 2008

     

    • India's National Security Guard Last time we knew for ourselves what the NSG was about was 22 years ago. A short article in bharat-rakshak.com reminded us of a few aspects of the NSG.

    • The official strength of 7,400 does not help in determining true strength because the NSG, which gets its men from the Army, in its turn seconds men to the Special Protection Group, a 3,000-man force for security of top VIPs. Perhaps 1500 NSG men are with the SPG. A sixth of the men will be away on annual or compassionate leave. Count those on sick call or on courses outside the NSG's own school at its base outside Delhi, and you may have about 4000 men available at any given time.

    • The men spend 2-months a year on high alert, during which period they have firing practice every day and consume 10,000 or more rounds. During their 10-months off-alert period they fire 2,000 or so rounds.

    • As far as we are concerned, 6500 men should be returned to the Army: that's more than the infantry in the rifle companies of a division. Doubling NSG's strength is plain dumb. 1000 men should suffice for anti-terror related duties. Special Forces and anti-terror units is a case where more is not better.

    • As for the notion that 3000 men are required for the protection of VIPs, again, more is not better. The SPG is only the innermost line  of VIP defense: there are tens of thousands of more men, generally police, also deployed.

    • And again, though everyone refers to the NSG as the Black Cat Commandos, they are not run by the Army but by the civilian Home Ministry.

    • Right now, rather than worry about Pakistan, we'd be happier if the Indians would focus on getting their act together re. high-threat countermeasures.

    • Minor further news: the Indians say that the Bombay 10 were part of a group of 500 that has been extensively trained as commandos by retired Pakistan Army personnel. If this is correct, it would account for the extraordinary skill with which the ten operated.

    • At the Taj, a 100-year old Victorian structure that has been repeatedly modernized, the NSG did not have the latest maps of the layout of rooms, corridors, tunnels, closets, exits and so on. But the terrorists did.

    • The minister now in charge of the Home Ministry is an extraordinary financial whiz who probably has done more to liberalize the Indian economy than the next five people put together. He is a very competent person. BUT - he does not want the job. He took it only because his party leader - Mrs. Sonia Gandhi acting through her surrogate, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh - ordered him to the new post. But bringing Indian internal security into the 21st Century is a much, much harder job than modernizing the economy.

    • And India is making a very serious mistake by seeking to graft "more of the same" structures on top of a dysfunctional system. What is required is first to carefully design a complete new internal security structure in - say - ten modules, and then proceed to implement one module every two years. Each time a new module comes into service, an equivalent part of the existing structures needs to be deactivated.

    • The process is so complicated, we don't blame anyone from not wanting to touch it. India is a democracy, the government changes every 5 years, and this makes creating a new internal security apparatus even more difficult.

     

     

    Not much news, or perhaps more accurately media is taking the weekend off. So we thought we'd give you the story below. Anyone who has been in danger of losing their life knows the peculiar state of hyper-awareness that the author of the story refers to. The worst thing about getting old, as far as the Editor is concerned, is not the loss, the loneliness, the money worries and so on. Its that the world gets bleached of color: everything becomes gray. This is because when you are old the threats to life are from within, not from without. You get so focused on every nuance of the way your body is behaving, on every warning sign,  and on simply getting through the day that the world shrinks around you.

     

    At the Taj, Bombay

     

    In India everyone knows everyone, even though it is a country of 1.1-billion. This account is forwarded to the Editor by a high school friend, who is good friends with three of the people mentioned before. He has not met the author, Michael Pollack, who is married to Anjali. Shiv and Reshma are husband and wife. The story illustrates the iconic nature of the Taj Hotel in Bombay.

     

    Account by Michael Pollack

    • My story begins innocuously, with a dinner reservation in a world-class hotel. It ends 12 hours later after the Indian army freed us.

    • My point is not to sensationalize events. It is to express my gratitude and pay tribute to the staff of the Taj Mahal Hotel in Mumbai, who sacrificed their lives so that we could survive. They, along with the Indian army, are the true heroes that emerged from this tragedy.

    • My wife, Anjali, and I were married in the Taj's Crystal Ballroom. Her parents were married there, too, and so were Shiv and Reshma, the couple with whom we had dinner plans. In fact, my wife and Reshma, both Bombay girls, grew up hanging out and partying the night away there and at the Oberoi Hotel, another terrorist target.

    • The four of us arrived at the Taj around 9:30 p.m. for dinner at the Golden Dragon, one of the better Chinese restaurants in Mumbai. We were a little early, and our table wasn't ready. So we walked next door to the Harbor Bar (in the hotel - Ed) and had barely begun to enjoy our beers when the host told us our table was ready. We decided to stay and finish our drinks.

    • Thirty seconds later, we heard what sounded like a heavy tray smashing to the ground. This was followed by 20 or 30 similar sounds and then absolute silence. We crouched behind a table just feet away from what we now knew were gunmen. Terrorists had stormed the lobby and were firing indiscriminately.

    • We tried to break the glass window in front of us with a chair, but it wouldn't budge. The Harbor Bar's hostess, who had remained at her post, motioned to us that it was safe to make a run for the stairwell. She mentioned, in passing, that there was a dead body right outside in the corridor. We believe this courageous woman was murdered after we ran away.

    • (We later learned that minutes after we climbed the stairs, terrorists came into the Harbor Bar, shot everyone who was there and executed those next door at the Golden Dragon. The staff there was equally brave, locking their patrons into a basement wine cellar to protect them. But the terrorists managed to break through and lob in grenades that killed everyone in the basement.)

    • We took refuge in the small office of the kitchen of another restaurant, Wasabi, on the second floor. Its chef and staff served the four of us food and drink and even apologized for the inconvenience we were suffering.

    • Through text messaging, e-mail on BlackBerrys and a small TV in the office, we realized the full extent of the terrorist attack on Mumbai. We figured we were in a secure place for the moment. There was also no way out.

    • At around 11:30 p.m., the kitchen went silent. We took a massive wooden table and pushed it up against the door, turned off all the lights and hid. All of the kitchen workers remained outside; not one staff member had run.

    • The terrorists repeatedly slammed against our door. We heard them ask the chef in Hindi if anyone was inside the office. He responded calmly: "No one is in there. It's empty." That is the second time the Taj staff saved our lives.
      After about 20 minutes, other staff members escorted us down a corridor to an area called The Chambers, a members-only area of the hotel. There were about 250 people in six rooms. Inside, the staff was serving sandwiches and alcohol. People were nervous, but cautiously optimistic. We were told The Chambers was the safest place we could be because the army was now guarding its two entrances and the streets were still dangerous. There had been attacks at a major railway station and a hospital.

    • But then, a member of parliament phoned into a live newscast and let the world know that hundreds of people--including CEOs, foreigners and members of parliament--were "secure and safe in The Chambers together." Adding to the escalating tension and chaos was the fact that, via text and cellphone, we knew that the dome of the Taj was on fire and that it could move downward.

    • At around 2 a.m., the staff attempted an evacuation. We all lined up to head down a dark fire escape exit. But after five minutes, grenade blasts and automatic weapon fire pierced the air. A mad stampede ensued to get out of the stairwell and take cover back inside The Chambers.

    • After that near-miss, my wife and I decided we should hide in different rooms. While we hoped to be together at the end, our primary obligation was to our children. We wanted to keep one parent alive. Because I am American and my wife is Indian, and news reports said the terrorists were targeting U.S. and U.K. nationals, I believed I would further endanger her life if we were together in a hostage situation.

    • So when we ran back to The Chambers I hid in a toilet stall with a floor-to-ceiling door and my wife stayed with our friends, who fled to a large room across the hall.

    • For the next seven hours, I lay in the fetal position, keeping in touch with Anjali via BlackBerry. I was joined in the stall by Joe, a Nigerian national with a U.S. green card. I managed to get in touch with the FBI, and several agents gave me status updates throughout the night.

    • I cannot even begin to explain the level of adrenaline running through my system at this point. It was this hyper-aware state where every sound, every smell, every piece of information was ultra-acute, analyzed and processed so that we could make the best decisions and maximize the odds of survival.

    • Was the fire above us life-threatening? What floor was it on? Were the commandos near us, or were they terrorists? Why is it so quiet? Did the commandos survive? If the terrorists come into the bathroom and to the door, when they fire in, how can I make my body as small as possible? If Joe gets killed before me in this situation, how can I throw his body on mine to barricade the door? If the Indian commandos liberate the rest in the other room, how will they know where I am? Do the terrorists have suicide vests? Will the roof stand? How can I make sure the FBI knows where Anjali and I are? When is it safe to stand up and attempt to urinate?

    • Meanwhile, Anjali and the others were across the corridor in a mass of people lying on the floor and clinging to each other. People barely moved for seven hours, and for the last three hours they felt it was too unsafe to even text. While I was tucked behind a couple walls of marble and granite in my toilet stall, she was feet from bullets flying back and forth. After our failed evacuation, most of the people in the fire escape stairwell and many staff members who attempted to protect the guests were shot and killed.

    • The 10 minutes around 2:30 a.m. were the most frightening. Rather than the back-and-forth of gunfire, we just heard single, punctuated shots. We later learned that the terrorists went along a different corridor of The Chambers, room by room, and systematically executed everyone: women, elderly, Muslims, Hindus, foreigners. A group huddled next to Anjali was devout Bori Muslims who would have been slaughtered just like everyone else, had the terrorists gone into their room. Everyone was in deep prayer and most, Anjali included, had accepted that their lives were likely over. It was terrorism in its purest form. No one was spared.

    • The next five hours were filled with the sounds of an intense grenade/gun battle between the Indian commandos and the terrorists. It was fought in darkness; each side was trying to outflank the other.

    • By the time dawn broke, the commandos had successfully secured our corridor. A young commando led out the people packed into Anjali's room. When one woman asked whether it was safe to leave, the commando replied: "Don't worry, you have nothing to fear. The first bullets have to go through me."

    • The corridor was laced with broken glass and bullet casings. Every table was turned over or destroyed. The ceilings and walls were littered with hundreds of bullet holes. Blood stains were everywhere, though, fortunately, there were no dead bodies to be seen.

    • A few minutes after Anjali had vacated, Joe and I peeked out of our stall. We saw multiple commandos and smiled widely. I had lost my right shoe while sprinting to the toilet so I grabbed a sheet from the floor, wrapped it around my foot and proceeded to walk over the debris to the hotel lobby.

    • Anjali and I embraced for the first time in seven hours in the Taj's ground floor entrance. I didn't know whether she was dead or injured because we hadn't been able to text for the past three hours.

    • I wanted to take a picture of us on my BlackBerry, but Anjali wanted us to get out of there before doing anything.

    • She was right--our ordeal wasn't completely over. A large bus pulled up in front of the Taj to collect us and, just about as it was fully loaded, gunfire erupted again. The terrorists were still alive and firing automatic weapons at the bus. Anjali was the last (in line) to get on the bus, and she eventually escaped in our friend's car. I ducked under some concrete barriers for cover and wound up the subject of photos that were later splashed across the media. Shortly thereafter, an ambulance came and drove a few of us to safety. An hour later, Anjali and I were again reunited at her parents' home. Our Thanksgiving had just gained a lot more meaning.

    • Some may say our survival was due to random luck, others might credit divine intervention. But 72 hours removed from these events, I can assure you only one thing: Far fewer people would have survived if it weren't for the extreme selflessness shown by the Taj staff, who organized us, catered to us and then, in the end, literally died for us.

    • They complemented the extreme bravery and courage of the Indian commandos, who, in a pitch-black setting and unfamiliar, tightly packed terrain, valiantly held the terrorists at bay.

    • It is also amazing that, out of our entire group, not one person screamed or panicked. There was an eerie but quiet calm that pervaded--one more thing that got us all out alive. Even people in adjacent rooms, who were being executed, kept silent.

    • It is much easier to destroy than to build, yet somehow humanity has managed to build far more than it has ever destroyed. Likewise, in a period of crisis, it is much easier to find faults and failings rather than to celebrate the good deeds. It is now time to commemorate our heroes.

     

    0230 December 6, 2008

     

    • Successful US ABM Test An ABM interceptor fired from Vandenberg AFB  intercepted a target missile fired from Kodiak Island. [BBC.]

    • Congo government to talks with rebels The talks to have the talks took place in Goma, currently very close to the limit of the rebel advance in North Kivu province. The talks will take place in Nairobi December 8, 2008. We expect nothing will come of the negotiations.

    • Meanwhile, Congo government says it will act jointly against the 5-6000 man Hutu militia based in North Kivu. The Hutus fled there after the Rwanda genocide. The Tutsi rebels says they are acting to protect themselves from the depredations of the Hutu militia. This is primarily a cover to occupy mineral-rich areas of the Northeast Congo.

    • The Congo government was refusing to negotiate, but it seems as if the western  international community has made negotiations a precondition for continuing aid to Congo.

    • US Army Afghanistan begins barracks building program for the reinforcement of 20,000 troops expected early next year [Times London].

    • Sri Lanka Army tightens grip around rebel capital by capturing two more towns. No date has been announced for the final assault on Killanochi. In one town, Sri Lanka Army found "hundreds" of boats and in the other large stocks of ammunition.

    • Letter on US SWAT Teams (Name withheld)

      In the 90's I participated in training SWAT teams to react to terrorist incidents at the Friendship Games in Seattle. Wide variety of skill sets from Federal to County to State Agency. We were the OPFOR, doing it for fun. Without going into too many details we had a group of 12 infiltrate four sites in the same general area, take hostages and launch 2 diversionary chem war strikes. Whilst the SWAT teams were highly motivated and well trained by standards of the time, several lessons learned then would apply worldwide today.
    • 1. SWAT teams 99% of the time are called to deal with a drunk with a gun. That breeds complacency/failure when that isn't the stipulated perpetrator. 2. SWAT teams NEVER deal with pros. VERY seldom do they even deal with professional criminals, much less organized/trained perpetrator with reaction plans anticipating an assault 3. SWAT teams focus too much on evidence/chain of custody. They don't get quick battlefield intel because they are trying to apprehend perp not disarm/debrief them. 4. SWAT teams hesitate pulling the trigger (due to ethics/training/paperwork/etc). Pro perpetrators don't hesitate. The above factors combine to create a huge advantage to the perpetrator. If the perpetrator  adds proper recon, good/secure internal commo and seizing/maintaining initiative then it is clear that SWAT teams can only succeed against pros by either 1) going extra-legal for the duration of the exercise; 2) using overwhelming force and willingness to accept corresponding police/civilian casualties; 3) being incredibly lucky.
    • I'm certainly confident that current SWAT teams have improved tactics/skills/equipment in the past 20 years. One presumes the bad guys have had the same opportunity. The miracle is thatlsewhere).

     

    0230 December 5, 2008

     

    • Danish Warship Rescues Pirates whose ship was floundering in heavy seas in Gulf of Aden. Danes said they are required to provide assistance to mariners in distress under Law of the Sea. The Danes searched the pirate ship, and found quantities of arms/ammunition aboard. Due to the weather, the warship could not take the pirate ship under tow; accordingly, it was destroyed as a hazard to navigation. The pirates were handed over to Yemen.

    • India Accepts Rogue Elements Conducted Bombay Attack? An article in the Hindu of India http://www.hindu.com/2008/12/05/stories/2008120558260100.htm which is based on off-the-record statements by officials, suggests that India accepts the Pakistan Government per se may not be behind the attack and as such retaliation against Pakistan as whole may be unwarranted.

    • If this is indeed India's thinking, the probability of a unilateral reaction from India is greatly reduced. In any case, as we've indicated, India's strategy is to multnationalize this incident and to let the US take the lead under threat of "If Washington wont help find a solution then we will be forced to act unilaterally" and so on.

    • Insights From Pakistan's Side Read http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/JL05Df01.html The article ties up all loose ends so nicely we are a bit suspicious. Nonetheless, article alleges clear leadership by Pakistan ISI for the operation, albeit at a low level. The section said by Asia Times to be responsible is head by a major.

    • Letter on multiple urban terror attacks (name withheld by request) I read the mention of a American expert who thought it would be difficult to combat a Bombay-type attack. I was involved in a police exercise here in September in San Francisco that tested 25 SWAT teams, mostly from the SF Bay Area, but also from the FBI, Boston, and L.A in a round-the-clock, 60 hour continuous exercise.

    • What I found fairly astonishing was that there were 22 independent SWAT teams in the Bay Area alone--23 if you count the California Highway Patrol. (Even Berkeley has a SWAT team.)

    • My brother and a few of our friends role played hostages and shooters in an exercise called "High Rise Active Shooter"--which come to think of it, sounds a lot like the Bombay attacks. And it was, indeed, a "small crisis at a fixed point". I got to play one of the panicked, hysterical hostages, and as a result got to watch the teams we worked with quite a bit (mind you, with a safety helmet on and my hands behind my head.) It was fascinating to watch the teams operate and the team members interact with each other.

    • I doubt the Bay Area is too much different from other major metropolitan areas. If there was a Bombay-type attack in San Francisco, there would be an abundance of talent. The major problem would seem to be orchestrating and then coordinating all of the various efforts. There is no regional superagency that could, for example, send the SFPD SWAT to the Mark Hopkins, Oakland PD to the Fairmont, and Fremont (a very, very good SWAT team, actually) to the Hilton.

    • The trend is clearly towards multiple simultaneous attacks. The people that I met were very dedicated to their jobs and are certainly thinking about the lack of a chain of command above their echelon. I think it's only a matter of time.

    • At the same time, I have heard from a reliable source that robberies of all kinds--cars, home burglaries, grand theft, etc. are skyrocketing in SF. With the recession budgets will inevitably start contracting. The people are going to want something done about day-to-day crime. So, we're going to have to choose what our priorities are.
       

    0230 December 4, 2008

     

    • Oil At $47: Get It While You Can Apparently the price of a gallon of American gasoline today (less than $2) is about the same as it was in 1920, real money. This is not going to last: all over the world people are cutting back on exploration and advanced recovery projects that requires floor ceilings of $60-$80/barrel. So you're going to get another shortage in 2010 as the world economy recovers.

    • Normally we pay no heed to what Americans say about South Asia terrorism because the situations are so different that nothing that works in America has any relevance to India. Yesterday, to our surprise, Washington Post had an article where an American expert said for an American city to combat a Bombay type attack would be very hard. In Bombay you had multiple groups of mobile shooters prepared to sacrifice their lives. American SWATs are designed to cope with a small crisis at a fixed point. The article referenced the Washington sniper in 2002, who proved difficult to catch because he kept shifting localities and targets over a period of three weeks.

    • Add to your conspiracy theories A Pakistan TV channel says the deed was done by Indian Zionists. Hey good buddy, old pal, do you even know how many Jews there are in India? Like, about 5000 (five thousand). How many of them are Zionists? A couple of dozen? Indian Jews have used the right of return since Independence, and Zionists are unlikely to stay on. If there were any to begin with.

    • The Indian nanny for the Rabbi's family, who had been with them for 5 years, locked herself in a room with another servant as the shooting started. In the morning she heard the 2-year old crying. She opened the door, went to the parents' bedroom, picked up the toddler, and ran for the outside - right in front of the terrorists. Phew. Only a woman can do such a deed in cold blood.

    • In case you're thinking, the terrorists would not kill a woman with a child, they had no trouble killing any number of women and in one case where a 4-year old was crying, they shot him too.

    • Avoid speculation on Indian response, please We have to issue this warning because India has not yet decided on its response and nor will it for some time because it will work with the US. There will be no shooting from the hip.

    • As far as what we hear, the suggestion is the US Government is telling Islamabad: you haveta give up the guys responsible, we can't keep holding the Indians back, and if its war you want with India, we aren't going to stick ourselves in the middle. We expect Pakistan will hand over someone or the other, saying "he's the guy", whether or not he's the guy. There is no percentage for the Pakistan government or military or people in this because the attack was so explicitly aimed as foreigners as well as Indians. Refusal to act would cost Pakistan badly. Our suggestion is Pakistan hand over one LeT operative such as the ex-soldier and one Al Qaeda guy it wants to get rid of anyway.

    • India's strategy is clear: "This is an attack against the world, not just against us. We expect the world to help us get justice, we aren't doing this to take our revenge."

    • Editor is a billionaire again US dollar now Z$100-million. Remember in two revaluations previous Zimbabwe has already knocked of 12 zeroes. So this means in 2006 money,US$1 - Z$100,000,000,000,000,000,000. 100 quintillion smackeroos. That means editor is now worth Z$1-sextillian, based on his holdings of $10 and some change. He's impressed, even if you aren't.

    • Spoiler Alert Half a loaf of bread costs Z$100-million.

    • Meanwhile the Zim situation is so grim that we cant bring ourselves to cover it, and the world has repeatedly shown it wants to have nothing to do with a solution. Chemicals to purify water have run out, so people are dying of cholera, 500 according to the government, 3000 according to aid agencies. The other day soldiers who had been waiting in line all day to draw out the microscopic (in real money) sums Zim citizens are permitted went on a rampage, joined by civilians. The police put down the riot, and The Great Crocodile says the army generals will deal most strictly with the rioters. No mutinies allowed, that sort of thing. Speculation is soldiers are going to start deserting: previously government made sure they got food and other essentials, but now government does not have the money even to keep the security apparatus quiet. But lets see.

    • US Auto Industry Competitiveness The figures are not terribly complex. A US auto industry worker cost $72/hour, a Japanese costs $48. Part of that differential is because the Japanese government picks up a greater part of health and social security costs. Part of it is the Japanese are more productive - we are told there are individual US plants that are as productive as the Japanese average, but these are the exception.

    • Aside from price, matters boil down to a simple proposition: the Japanese make better cars that are wanted by the market than the Americans do.

    • Being a patriotic American, editor drives an American Chevvy Metro. So the editor thought. He's learned he actually drives a Suzuki Swift assembled in Canada. He hopes that the logo plate is at least made in the US.

     

    0230 December 3, 2008

     

    Not Tonight Dear: We Have A Headache

     

    • Just as we finished demolishment of the conspiracy theories that (a) the Bombay attack was intended to destroy the incoming American president's plan for Afghanistan and Pakistan or that (b) Al Qaeda and Taliban has joined together to incite war between India and Pakistan, resulting in the withdrawal of the troops Pakistan has committed to its west and thus relieve pressure on the terrorists, someone alerted us to another conspiracy theory.

    • This one says the Indian Army staged the attack. At which point we got into a "Not tonight dear: we have a headache" mood. Several chocolates we are able to bravely carry on.

    • So, the head of the Anti-Terror Squad had recently uncovered a Hindu terrorist ring while he was looking for suspect Islamic terrorists. Included in the ring was an Indian Army lieutenant colonel. Very concerned that other army officers would be uncovered, the Army and its stooges decided to kill the head of the ATS, and that was the purpose of the Bombay attack.

    • Rather a complex way of killing a single police officer, we think. Besides, what if he'd been sick and didn't show up? Or in another part of the country investigating? What if he'd rushed to the railway station instead of the hotel? Or if he hadn't let the counterattack himself  into an impossible-to-miss target? And that he would choose a sub-standard flak vest? (The officer in question was hit in the chest by four bullets, all of which penetrated, killing him.)

    • Much simpler would be to send a couple of patient snipers to get him. This police officer sole achievement in life was hardly the masking of a Hindu terrorist ring. He was a leader in the war against gangs and had many enemies. What's simpler than after the deed to call the media and say: "Compliments of Mr. Dawood Ibhrahim."

    • This D character, by the way, is India's most notorious gangster and has been on the lam for the years. He now lives in Karachi protected by the ISI, and is the fellow responsible for the 1993 blasts. At least nine Hindu customs and police officials were among those convicted in that case, also by the way. The D character's criminal activities flourish.

    • US also gave warning say sources, and other warnings were also given. We'd yesterday mentioned the warning to the Taj Hotel people.

    • Okay, people, we'll be the first to admit Indian intelligence coordination is seven short of a six-pack. We're not defending anyone. We'd just like to point out that post facto discussions about warnings not heeded ignore the reality that 9 of 10 warnings, or 99 of a hundred, or even 999 of a thousand, turn out to be untrue.

    • Our Warning To Readers Please don't believe that just because the US says it gave warning, and that it has evidence Lashkar-e-Toba is involved or whatever that any of that is true either. US intelligence is no infallible oracle; more to the point, as is the case with everyone, all intelligence is politically tainted. US does not have an axe to grind in pinning this on the Pakistanis, it has a shipload of axes to grind.

    • We are not saying this because we have any information to the contrary regarding the perps. We have no information of any sort. But having been a marginal player in the game, we definitely know intelligence from a rotting, dead sardine. (Hint: even after eating, its very difficult to tell one from the other.)

    • India Disinclined To Military Action Or at least that's what the Indians are telling everyone. If this is true, then we offer our congratulation to those in charge of strategic decisionmaking. India has been very badly served by its national security decisionmakers.

    • Again, we have nothing against military action. We are fervent believers in military action. Your editor was so extreme regarding India and military action as a tool that the fastest way of discrediting yourself was to say: "Ravi says..." even with the US, he is always for the military option first.

    • The problem - please excuse us repeating ourselves - is that invariably there is a complete failure to objectively analyze the full consequences of such action. Its very easy, for example, to come up with a military option to strike LeT in its bases and training camps.

    • But once you have 50 fighter-bombers and 3000 paratroops cross the Cease Fire Line in Kashmir, you cannot expect the Pakistanis to yawn and call the barman at the officer's club for another tall one, and casually say: "Ah yes, just the Indians whacking LeT. And since we deny there is any such thing in Pakistan, let the Indians make fools of themselves."

    • The realistic expectation on the Indian side must be that the Pakistanis assume a full-scale war has started and react accordingly. Just as long as the Indians are prepared to deal with every escalation right down to its logical end, we have no problems with the military option. In fact, if you are logical from the start, you'll see the only possible solution is to reunify the sub-continent, a process that would take a hundred years, several million dead, possibly several ten million dead, and a few trillion dollars.

    • So, it follows, you may as well go for broke from the beginning. Anyway, no point in discussing it, no one in India or the US can contemplate in the slightest degree a proper resolution  to the issue of Pakistan and terrorism.

    • Six years, ago, when Indian twice prepared to attack Pakistani terrorist training camps, on Bharat-Rakshak.com, an Indian defense forum, your editor got repeatedly slammed for having the effrontery to tell our infant armchair generals that nothing they were saying about military operations had any foundation in reality. One administrator crossly complained: "If anyone were to listen you, no one would move from their sofa. You have an objection to every course of action. If you were some country's general, they would never win any war. In fact, they would never start one no matter how dire the situation."

    • No, no, no, my young friends. All I said was that if you think you're going to reach the Indus River on D+10, your are badly informed. India can destroy Pakistan anytime it wants, nukes or no nukes. But you have to be prepared for a war of 180 days - D+180 - in its conventional phase, and then comes the hard part, the Colin Powell Rule: you broke it, now you fix it. Yes, there are quite simple ways of breaking up Pakistan and of dealing with the aftermath. You tell me the people of India are willing to do what it takes, and I'm with you. But it is my assessment the people of India are not willing to do even 1% of what it takes. So why start?

    • At this point, lets switch focus. You may say: "are you then saying that our only option to step up our internal security to the point we can stop attacks?"

    • We are not saying that for two reasons. (a) That option is actually even harder than overrunning Pakistan. And (b) You can't win a war by always being on the defensive. Its because we always went for defense over offense that  India was ruled by foreigners for a thousand years.

    • You want to know how to handle the next Bombay? Easy stuff. Walk on over for a chat. Bring lots of chocolate - and only Hershey Milk Chocolate, please. None of that prissy, sissy European stuff marketed as "real" chocolate. The editor may be old, he may not have had a date in the last five years, but he has NEVER eaten European chocolate. Some principles you have to hold steadfast even if death is staring you in the face.

     

    0230 December 1/2, 2008

     

    The Way To Stop Piracy

     

    • Its quite simple. The world should get together and buy nice high-speed ships fully equipped with bunny slippers, pink blankies, and hot cocoa, and pay the Somali pirates to escort merchantmen through troubled waters.

    • We had this outstandingly clever idea on reading that after an oil tanker radioed it was under attack, the French Navy dispatched a helicopter off one of its frigates to  - rescue from the sea the protection team defending the tanker. What was the protection team doing in the water? Thought you'd never ask.

    • A UK firm has hired out 10 protection teams of three ex-servicemen each, cost UK Pounds 14,000 for three days. One team was aboard the hijacked tanker and managed to hold off the pirates for 40 minutes till the French helicopter arrived.

    • Yes, yes, you say impatiently, but why was the team in the water?

    • Because they jumped off, silly. The French helicopter picked them up and returned them to another French naval ship nearby. The hijackers sailed off with the ship and 25 crew.

    • We sense your growing frustration with us "But why did they jump off? And who are you calling silly?

    • Its like this. When the pirates attacked, the 3-man protection team - two ex-Royal Marines and an ex-paratrooper, not the sort you'd associate with bunny slippers, used the water cannon, zigzagging, and an acoustic weapon to fight off the baddies. But then the baddies began firing - with real guns and bullets, boys and girls, to disable the acoustic noise-makers and shooting RPGs at the tanker. So the 3-man team thought it wisest to be off before the tanker got hijacked.

    • At this point you are banging your head against the wall. Why cannot you Orbat people just tell the story? Why did the protection teams not shoot back?

    • They did: with everything they had. They just didn't have guns. Cant go through Customs in most placed around the world with a Santa's jolly bag full of gins and ammunition. Plus shipping companies want to keep guns off oil and chemical tankers. The team correctly figured there was no percentage in being taken hostage.

    • So there you have it folks. No need to trust OBL when he says the west is degenerate and will fall of its own flaws. You can see with your own eyes he is absolutely correct. We are so decadent, so degenerate, that we cannot protect ourselves. The pirates are up to 97 ships hijacked this year; they will easily make a century before close of 2008.

    • Why didn't the French helicopter fire on the hijackers? We don't want to risk hostage lives.

    • So you see, folks, if we dinna want to do this, and we dinna want to do that, then we need accepts Orbat.com's solution. Pay the pirates 1 Euro per day per gross ton of ship displacement as "convenience fees" and everything will be nice and peaceful. As for other pirates wanting to steal ships from those escorted by other pirates, no need to worry. The hired pirates will kill any attacker.

     

    Back to Bombay

     

    • If you don't know India, some of the stuff we're going to relate will make absolutely no sense. If you do know India, you will understand perfectly.

    • India to Double National Security Guards to 15,000 and station contingents in 4 cities.

    • Question 1: How can you have an "elite" force of 15,000 - try imagining a 15,000-man Delta Force or SAS and you'll get the point. There is already another elite more elite than the NSG, its called the Special Protection Group and is used to protect the worthless hides of India's senior politicians. It is said to number 3000+. Then there are six regular Army SF battalions, with more paratroop battalions converting. There's the Navy and Air Force commandos. Say 25,000+. Isn't it simpler to reduce the NSG to 3000 or even less, and then give them the best training/equipment that money can buy?

    • Question 2: Why is this force now to be dispersed at four center? Why can't the NSG have their own aircraft? Oddly enough, they did ask for two. The bureaucrats said this is not cost-efficient, you can always get an air force plane or one from the airlines. By the way, guess how the NSG flies around at need? It charters private executive jets and the like.

    • Question 3: Actually, lets not ask Question 3, we don't want our readers getting more stomach acid.

    • More follies The Maharashtra Police was sanctioned $200-million for modernization, including up-to-date equipment for its commando unit and the Anti-Terror Squad and so on. The commando unit was disbanded and money was diverted to buying nice staff cars for all the senior police officers and so on. Meanwhile, the so-called Rapid Action Force is not given money even to buy ammunition for training, for their antique weapons. The only time they get to fire real bullets is - when they are firing on mobs. The saints preserve us, is all we can say.

    • Taj Group said it was given warning and had increased security So how did the 3-4 gunmen so easily defeat the security? Well, says the scion of the Tata family, the security was all at the front, because that's where the guests are. The terrorists came in through the kitchens at the back.

    • By the way, this man is actually, really, a corporate master of the universe type. He is not some senile goat kept tethered on the back lawn. If this is how the security was deployed, its because this is what his security people told him was needed. He is a peaceful man, and it would have never occur to him to ask: "What about the back?"

    • When the two gunmen attacked the train terminal there were armed police in the terminal, and on a train that arrived at a platform in the middle of the shooting. What did the police in the terminal do? They hid. When people including a journalist ran to the income train and told it to move up so as to be out of sight of the gunmen, they saw armed police on the train. The journalist among others yelled at them "you have the gunmen in your sight, why don't you shoot?", the armed police hid.

    • Okay, so we're going to have a very hard time explaining this if you don't know India. The Railway Police in India are long-in-the-tooth, completely out of shape, and we're willing to bet they've been carrying that same 5-round magazine the day they were given their guns - pulled out of some museum not doubt - 19 years ago. Probably most of the guns are not useable. These creatures are so pathetic you would really not expect them to fight anyone, especially gunmen with automatic weapons who are casually killing everyone in sight.

    • By the way, kudos to the citizens and the journalist who were running around getting people out of the line of fire and trying to tend to the wounded and helping people escape. This is quite amazing.

    • The single prisoner says his group was trained for a year by an ex-army man in Pakistan and told of their target six months ago. Okay, but the question everyone is wanting to ask - and the Russians are openly asking: you cannot just take a bunch of fresh faced citizens and then train them to skillfully operate as special forces. What these lads did would have taken experienced SF operators to achieve. Even given they had first-rate training, and were really determined/motivated, there have to have been more of them. Not to cause the initial havoc, but to hold off a hundred times as many trained commandos, most of whom have seen ample action with their parent units.

    • And of course no one still knows what they wanted. The single prisoner hasn't said, except to allow they had hoped to kill 5000 people.

     

     

    Bombay: The Siege Is Over, Let the Craziness Begin

     

    • Now we have the Pakistanis telling the US that ""The next 48 hours are critical in determining how things unfold,” a top Pakistani security official told reporters. “We will not leave a single troop on the western border if we are threatened by India."' (Times London).

    • Does this sound like Pakistan is committed to the US agenda in the west? And as we've said before a hundred times, will the West get its through its head that no matter what it does, it cannot force Pakistan to destroy its own national security interests for someone else. The Taliban is part of Pakistan's national security interest.

    • Then we have the immortal Washington Post via Jim Hoagland, one of the few journalists we respect for his sound moderation, tell America it must keep its eye on the ball, and that means keeping India and Pakistan working like blinkered mules in the GWOT and not fighting each other.

    • Besides, he says, there is no proof the Pakistan government is involved in the Bombay attack.

    • Sigh. Why cant the editor get paid $175,000 a year plus perks for uttering inanities? Surely Mr. H is aware there's the Pakistan government and there's the Pakistan government. The real government is not the official government.

    • And we'd like to explain something to Mr. H. The Pakistanis are masters, real masters, at handling Americans. They could never handle the Brits  because that lot are more devious, two-faced, lying, manipulating, cynical, crafty etc than the Pakistanis. Think for a minute: how did a postage stamp country of 40-million come to directly rule one-fourth of the globe? Nobody but nobody has come close to their empire in terms of land area and population. How did they win it? Not by being straight like the Americans.

    • The Pakistanis have successfully sold America the pure 16-year old virgin who is actually the old hag madam in charge of the brothel, and when the Americans say: "Er, bro, are you sure she's 16, all her teeth have fallen out", the Pakistanis say: "Ah, great and wise masters, the blessings of heaven on you, yes, you have seen through poor Abdul's greediness, this is no virgin. But he will now bring you a 15-year old virgin and then you can punish him all you want for his perfidy." Of course, not only does the new "virgin" not have any teeth, she has no hair and is missing a leg, too.

    • But the Americans embrace her and say to Abdul: "what a perfect virgin" because they cannot face up to that they, the biggest baddest boys on the block, who were threatening the other day to take Pakistan to the stone age if the Pakistanis did not cooperate in the GWOT, have been had.

    • America the Great, America the Powerful, America the Rich before whom all must give way cannot face the fact that Abdul to waiter is not just spitting in their soup before he serves it, he's farting in their soup after he puts it on the table. The shoe is on the other foot, and the Pakistanis are now deploying it where it really hurts, all the while going "Salaam, sahib".

    • What Mr. H needs is to go to India, and tell the Indians there is no proof of Pakistani government involvement. They will tell him straight: "You know, Mr. H., you've never really provided any proof to the world that OBL staged the 9/11 attacks, nor have you proved he is alive, nor have you proved he was a tenth as important as you say when he was alive. You ask us to take you at your word on OBL and the GWOT. And we're saying nothing that 80% of the world does not say. So how about you taking our word on Pakistan?"

    • Meanwhile, we're off track. "Let the craziness begin" refers to all the nutty theories popping up, including one furthered by Times London, which says: "Mumbai attacks were attempt to wreck Obama's plan to isolate Al-Qaeda" You dont believe Times London said that? Click http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article5263919.ece

     

     

     

     

     

     

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