Welcome to  America Goes To War. We focus on news about the war on terror and other important strategic matters.

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Staff Editor & Publisher Ravi Rikhye We did not bring out CWA 2007 for lack of orders. Concise World Armies 2008 Under preparation. $75 E-copy; $135 hard copy 800+ pages, airmail. E-mail Ravi Rikhye to order. List of Countries Now Available [180 countries/territories; approx. 45 more to be added.] 1.07 American Samoa; 1.20 Jordan

RETURN TO MAIN Condensed World Armies Condensed World Paramilitary Forces 2006 Analysis WE BRING YOU THE WORLD © Published on an ad hoc basis Declassified Gulf II Planning Documents Report on US Army readiness March 2007 [Thanks Joseph Stefula] Welcome to  America Goes To War. We focus on news about the war on terror and other important strategic matters. 0230 November 30, 2008 Bombay For pictures and firearms go to http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=4481 We're finding it hard to believe that 12 insurgents carried out this attack, given the scale and the difficult of killing them, even allowing for the likelihood the gunmen had local help. Only one captured is confirmed, some say there are two. Economic Times of India has an excellent analysis on why the National Security Guards took 10 hours to arrive. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Why_did_NSG_take_10_hours_to_arrive/articleshow/3775099.cms  It looks like no unit was on alert. The men had to be woken and given time to get ready; the nearest Il-76 was at an airbase to the north and had to be got to Delhi; the commandos had to travel to the airport; Il-76 lumbered on slowly (this is news to us and unpleasant) taking three hours for a journey that a commercial aircraft could have cleared in half the time; then they had to be bused from Bombay IAP to the site. This gave the gunmen time to "dig in". People are asking why the NSG is based only at one place. This is a very silly question. They train intensively every single day and for that reason alone one place is better. There's also the question of families and so on. The Bombay Anti-Terror Squad has apparently just 35 officers and men and we have confirmation the ATS simply swaggered in with their usual nonchalance and inadequate arms and were cut down. Brave men, nonetheless. B.R. Raman, a former Indian intelligence official, says he saw on TV the head of the ATV trying on different flak vests and helmets before finding ones that fit him. The Oberoi Hotel has over 550+ guest rooms. You add all the other rooms needed for a hotel including utility closets and so on, likely there are a 1000 different rooms. This is undoubtedly the reason clearance of the rooms took so much time; the commandos apparently had to enter them all. Seems to us by the time your team makes its sixth entry for the night, nerves are a bit frayed. You have to assume the gunmen are in the room you're busting open and you have to clear the room of booby traps before entering. Then the dogs come in to sniff for explosives. A tense and lengthy business for each room. This not being war you cant simply attach explosives to all the doors in the corridor and blast everything to pieces in one fell swoop. The NSG sends men to Israel for additional training. Okay, things have changed: the NSG men now do wear helmets, but many choose not to, and they do not have to cover their faces, though many chose to. Its also possible since Bombay is warm even on winter nights your head/face gets so sweaty with all the running around you have to demask. This is bad: at the Jewish house several dead women were found tied up (Haaretz.com). Initial information is the Jewish hostages were killed immediately after the gunmen took the building. Otherwise its not clear if the gunmen were actually holding hostages and dragging them from room to room. Makes sense, as there were hardly 3-4 men at each major target. The Israelis seem ready to acknowledge the counter operation was a very difficult task. Their specific complaints now center on the Jewish house. See http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1042003.html . The Israelis are still thinking as if this was the center of Tel Aviv where you can get a reaction force into motion very fast. Only the commandos have the experience to have cleared the Jewish house, and it is more than likely the hostages were killed well before given the time lag. The gunmen and the Pakistan government: a thought experiment The west is in danger of throttling itself with its own contortions about how no link between the gunmen and the Pakistan gunmen is proved. So lets do a thought experiment. Gunmen attack seven targets in Havana and kill near 200 people, injure near 400. One prisoner is taken. He says he is from a Cuban paramilitary group of several hundred based in Florida. The group moves openly and its camps and training grounds are known to every local. It is well known this group has been in Florida for over 10 years, and  has conducted hundreds of operations against Cuba over a 25-year period. US Government says it has nothing to do with the group and does not condone terror. Anyone going to believe that? Your Honor, we rest our case. We are neither moralizing nor rabble rousing We have repeatedly said Pakistan will do what it must do to achieve its strategic objectives. We're not saying they are evil and the Indians are good. After all, the Indians too conduct strikes in Sind, using locals. The Indians are simply doing what they have to do to assure their security. We are explicitly and repeatedly warning for India to think 10 times before retaliating, decide, and then think a hundred times more before acting. So we are hardly screaming for war. All we are saying is that the United States Government is in direct contravention of its own laws regarding countries that sponsor terror. Now, we understand the US has to do what it has to do to ensure its security. But the US needs to come out and say: "we know what the Pakistanis are doing, but our interests override everything else." If you refuse to be honest with yourself, if you lie to yourself, your actions will never be straight and true, and you will be unable to tell when others are lying to you. This is not mysticism, its Elementary Warfare 99 - not even EW 100. 0230 November 29, 2008 As of now terrorists have been cleared out except for Taj holdout(s) One or more gunmen, possibly with two hostages, are still holding out at the Taj Hotel despite the elapse of almost 60-hours. The death toll is likely to reach 200, with at least 25 foreigners, 14 Maharashtra Police, and 1 National Security Guard. Israelis upset with Indians They say the Indians should not have gone in immediately, but collected all possible information. You can trust the Israelis (a) to have an opinion on everything under the sun, and (b) to find fault with any operation they did not conduct. In this case they are absolutely wrong, and we hope they are gracious enough to admit it. In a conventional hostage situation, yes, the Israelis are correct, and ye, the Indians know information is the first priority. But this was not a conventional operation. The gunmen were traveling from building to building, room to room, killing civilians where they were found. Any delay would have led to scores, possibly hundreds more civilians being killed. The very brave immediate attack by the Mahrashtra Police's senior officers clearly saved many hostages, forcing the terrorists to flee to the upper floors of the hotel. In the case of the Jewish home, Nariman House, security forces acted with maximum caution because the gunmen were sealed off inside the building. The constant lobbing of grenades and constant firing by the gunmen required a response, particularly after firing was heard inside the home. Our overall evaluation is that the Indians did their best given their limitations of preparedness, training, and equipment. In particular the very lightly armed Maharashtra Police performed with outstanding valor. As a whole, the security forces did operate in a seemingly haphazard manner. But India had never before envisaged such an attack, and the wide area over which the action took place undoubtedly created great confusion for the security forces. The Indians to throw up multiple forces without much forethought, and this was evident here. Men from 7 different organizations took part: Maharashtra regular police, armed police, Anti-Terrorist Squad, and Rapid Action Force, which despite its name is designed for riot control. Only the ATS had any formal training and experience in such situations. The Navy sent Marine Commandos. These are special forces type troops; operating inside a large and crowded city is not in their remit. The Army sent a composite force, likely drawn from elements of an infantry battalion plus its support and administrative companies. Again this is a conventional battlefield unit, and at that one deployed in a peace station. army commandos were also present, but these could as easily be from the commando platoon of the infantry battalion. Then there were the National Security Guards. They are the sole organization trained for serious hostage rescue and the only ones to keep men on high alert. But in defense of the Indians, please imagine if a similar attack had taken place in, say New York prior to 9/11. You also would have seen every agency and his sister in a general melee. The Indians will improve their coordination, response etc., war imposes its own learning curve and you have to learn on the job. None of the forces involved had much idea of the layout of the two hotels To hang around getting architects plans and such would have been wrong because every hour civilians were being killed and wounded. But in urban-terror situations in high rise buildings, a detailed floor plan is critical. This lack very definitely slowed up the counterattack. Last, the orders to avoid civilians casualties were paramount Sure, if you'd sent in a couple of rifle companies and told them to take the buildings at all costs, the whole thing would have been over in hours, and you'd have at least double the civilian toll. Neither the Israelis nor anyone else should feel superior because none of them have faced a similar situation. Most important Please understand these terrorists came not to take hostages and ready to talk to TV about their demands. With the exception of one lone terrorist who made one call to talk vaguely about freeing terror prisoners, the group issued no demands. They came to kill, just as much as the 9/11 hijackers came to kill, not to negotiate. This alone makes conventional counter-terror wisdom irrelevant. Who is responsible? First, Western intelligence believes the Pakistani group Lakshar-e-Taiba is responsible. See International Herald Tribune http://iht.com/articles/2008/11/28/asia/pakistan.php Second, one of the gunmen is in custody and claims to have killed the three senior police officials himself. He is singing like a bird, which is wise, because he is a dead man and may as well spend his remaining time on earth in a comfortable manner as opposed to being tortured to death. Like the American legal system on capital crimes, the Indian system moves slowly, but is less involved in technicalities and moral dilemma about the death penalty. The man will hang, it is simply a matter of the years that will elapse before his final journey. But how do we know his singing is not actually from an Indian songsheet? For one thing, Western intelligence is saying the same thing as he is regarding his group. For another, because westerners have been killed/wounded, at least half-a-dozen western police/intelligence agencies are already in Bombay. They are unlikely to be complicit in any Indian frameup. Last, the man's narrative so far fits known details. Briefly: His group embarked on a Pakistan merchant ship off Karachi, sailed till they came across an Indian fishing vessel, hijacked the vessel, killed four of the 5 crew, and forced the remaining man to sail for Bombay. Well, the Indians have the boat and there is indeed one dead person in it. Several of the men were seen by the wife of an Indian fishermen as they landed. She asked them their business and they told her to be off. Most of the men were familiar with their targets because - the arrested man says - they made a predatory visit for reconnaissance. The places they stayed are being checked.. At least one of the dead men appears known to the Indians as an LeT operator, though the media is not at all clear on this. Meanwhile, the Indian Coast Guard is said to have two Pakistan vessels in custody for questioning. Why might a Pakistani vessel be involved in this operation? Simple. According to the songbird, this was not a suicide run. The men were told they were going to conduct a strike and they had detailed information as to their escape routes. If this is so, all the more reason for the Indians to have struck immediately. Bad as this incident is, think how much worse if the men had escaped. Is the LeT a non-state, rogue group? Sorry, it is not. Western security people can say all they want there is no proof. They Indians have had proof for years. That is all we can say. It is not the editor's business to throw gas on the fire. Does that mean the Pakistani Prime Minister and Foreign Minister are liars when they say the Pakistan Government is innocent? Sorry about that too, but they are not liars. Its simply that they are the Government of Pakistan in name only. The people who organized the operation would be mad to tell the civilian government what was up. What will now happen? At this point the editor needs to make clear he personally does not give a single hoot what happens. He left his country 20 years back, and is never going to go back under his own power. Indeed his explicit wishes are his ashes NOT be returned to India. He keeps his Indian nationality partly from sentiment - after all, the Government is just a teeny part of India - and is unlikely to get American nationality no matter how nicely he asks. As far as he is concerned, the Indian power elite, as much as the American, is 100% corrupt and anti-Indian, and if there was some practical way off removing them permanently he'd be first in line. That said, lets reverse the question. What can India make happen? Rationally, zero. To attack LeT bases is to start an all-out war, and while India should be prepared for the consequences, as a practical matter, it is not. If India is going to be irrational, then of course that is a different matter. Rather than bore you with a lengthy rant, let us ask two questions. The Israelis react to terror attacks on their country with savage retaliation, a hundred times a year. They have a tiny country and a postage-stamp size enemy and probably the largest military in the world in per capita terms. They have every weapon, every technology known to man. Have they succeeded in stopping terror? Then lets take the Americans. They have thrown dollars and bombs at their terror problems with complete abandon these last seven years. Has the most powerful nation in all history, have the Americans neutralized global terror? So, we rest our case. Are we saying there is no solution? Of course there is. The only solution requires spilling so much blood of innocent and guilty alike that neither Israel, nor the US, and certainly not India, is capable of implementing the solution. so if our readers will excuse us, we'll keep our solution to ourselves. We do have more important things to worry about such as grubbing a living. 0230 November 28, 2008 Mandeep Singh Bajwa, our South Asia person, has not favored us with dispatches. We realize he has clients with bulgy pockets to satisfy, but where's the harm in sending us reports with a 24-hour delay so as not to upset the paying clientele? As we anticipated Army and Marine commandos cleared the terrorists out of their last Bombay commercial district hideouts. So far we get no sense that prisoners were taken. The prisoners in custody appear to have surrendered to the police. At least seven buildings were hit, including one where the few local Jews meet. The terrorists' demands for negotiations and hostage exchanges were most perfunctory, almost as if they forgot what it is they were about. Police casualties are 14 KIA; the military reports no casualties, 125 civilians including 7-8 foreigners are dead, and somewhere around 15+ insurgents are dead and ~10 are prisoners. An Indian naval source said the terrorists were well trained and highly motivated. We think their planning left everything to be desired. With no more than 25-30 in all, they spread themselves all over the commercial district, so that at key places like the two luxury hotels no more than 4-5 men were available. The casualties they inflicted appear solely to be on account of standing in the middle of civilians and then killing as many as they could. In one case, a single terrorist herded 30+ luxury hotel guests up the stairs to take them to the roof; most escaped before the rest reached there. We are impressed with the Indian security forces because not only did they manage to save almost all the foreigners, but because the state police kept up a constant flow of information to the news media. The openness is remarkable for anyone familiar with the way India operates. We believe the frequent updates to the media stopped panic and disinformation from spreading. Of course, this is the Maharashtra State Police, who are probably the most efficient in India. Also commendable is the coolness with which the firefighters operated. Nonetheless, we were disheartened that the police weapons armory is still the same as it was when the editor was in India 20 years ago - and it was already gravely antiquated even then. Video and photos showed the police running around with their bamboo staffs and a few policemen with the World War I type 0.303 rifles rechambered to take a 0.41 cartridge. Agreed when you hit someone with a single round he is down for good - this is really an elephant gun. The revolvers seemed to belong in a Western - we did not see a single automatic handgun. As for flak jackets, helmets, and radios, forget it. And the flak jackets are no good: the head of the Anti-Terror Squad was killed by four rounds that hit him in the chest, and we know from video he donned a flak jacket before he went in to tackle the insurgents. The "five columns" of Army troops - likely five companies - brought in for area control arrived in their soft-skinned vehicles and no flak jackets. Not one we could see had night vision equipment. It wasn't even clear to us the men were issued more than 1-2 magazines of 20 rounds each. Agreed that there is very little military presence in the Bombay area and that it is completely a peacetime station. In Kashmir the men would have come fully equipped including rocket launchers, medium machine guns, and automatic grenade launchers. Most astonishing to us was a short video clip of a single Army officer sneaking into a hotel probably not to miss the fun and games. He wore his beret, no flak jacket, no rifle or Sten gun. We could make out no revolver. Backup was in the form of a single rifleman - we repeat, one soldier with an FN semi-automatic rifle. The officer was keen as mustard; the rifleman - who we are sure has much combat experience - had a long-suffering look that to us spoke of "Well, here we go again." This brought to mind our exchange with a Canadian Army officer on Canadian troops in Afghanistan who, like their American counterparts, carry so much gear its remarkable they can march ten kilometers. Of course, North American whites and blacks tend be much larger than other soldiers - your typical India infantryman weights 130-140 lbs, but still. We accept Indian Army officers have a "do you want to live forever?" mentality and are always leading their men from the front. On a personal level we much admire the officer. But we are reminded of an Indian Air Force fighter pilot saw: "Its not my job to die for my country. My job is to make the other man die for his." If we were to meet him, we'd say: "Now look here, young feller. We love your dash-get-go. But the Indian Army already has just 27,000 officers for a 1.3-million man forces. We reject the American way of combat, casualty avoidance as the first, last, and only goal. But honestly, while we're sure (actually we're not) that the rest of your men were covering you, be a little more heedful of your life. Interestingly, while the media provided many images of the police, the armed police, and the Army, of the naval and army commandoes and of the elite National Security Guards there was not a single image till a couple of hours ago. The situation is confusing, because the Army sent 65 commandos, and these are with the field units, they do not work under the super-secure identity used by the NSG. Last, the editor is the last of the super hawks, but may we advise the Indian Government to take several months if neccessary before making a decision on India's next steps. The main reason the two planned all-out offensives against Pakistan following the 2001 on the Indian Parliament never went in is that there was - according to your editor - very little consideration of the objectives, outcomes, and consequences. We do not refer to Pakistan's N-weapons. This should not delay any Indian response. If the Pakistanis make the mistake of incinerating a couple of Indian cities, then on their heads let fall the consequences, which is that all Pakistan will be under a radioactive cloud. No, definitely not are we concerned with this. But we want the Indians for once to return to the 1971 strategic events, where India took eight months before opening its offensive, and within the limits of its political masters, succeeded. Let's not have a 1947 where India remained clueless that the accession of Kashmir it was negotiating would trigger a Pakistani loss. India did not even have a single rifle company in Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh and did not see the need for one till the irregulars started coming into Kashmir. Lets not have a 1962, where India reacted emotionally to Chinese provocation and paid the price. Lets not have a repeat of the 1987 invasion of Sri Lanka, where the Chief of Army Staff was using tourist maps to plan his entry. Lets not forget the cancelled offensives of the 1990s where at least good sense prevailed before the tanks began rolling. At the same time, please do not be like India-China Reprise, where the Chinese have been gobbling up Indian territory for years and the Indians yawn and languidly order another whiskey-soda at the club, or whatever they do at the club these days. To be fair The latest batch of photos we saw after uploading the update do show a lot more flak vests with the police and regular army, but in one picture half a dozen soldiers are seen scaling a fence wearing their soft hats. Some picture from Reuters purport to show commandos; however, to our eye they are not, primarily because they are wearing helmets. Indian commandos do not do helmets as they prefer to operate light and swift. Again, in the absence of our South Asia correspondent, we can't say this is still the case; nonetheless, the commandos are issued the best equipment and the helmets seem ancient. One officer does seem to have an automatic handgun and we are uncertain if the Army has gotten around to replace its revolvers. Some officers do have personal weapons, yet the officer has no mask on and this is atypical. Pictures are all from Times of India The National Security Guards wear black, but the man on the left is Navy. We dont know if the NSG now also recruits from the Navy. The man on the right has to be Army. http://photogallery.indiatimes.com/articleshow/3764195.cms Regular Army; the three black beret men behind are officers. The small person between the officers could a woman army doctor. http://photogallery.indiatimes.com/articleshow/3764391.cms Clearly a sniper, most likely an Army commando. Note the clever improvised sling; an NSG would not need to make a sling on the spot. http://photogallery.indiatimes.com/articleshow/3764191.cms Army snipers, working to gain the high round at the Gateway of India, which was not attacked. The scaffolding is for repairs to be effected to the monument. In the editor's day, such scaffolding was made of bamboo and hessian rope. http://photogallery.indiatimes.com/articleshow/3764209.cms 0230 November 27, 2008 Congo refuses more Indian troops says the BBC. No explanation has been given, except to say the Indians are overrepresented in MONUC and troops from other nations are preferred. We are as yet unable to determine if the Indian Government actually offered more troops to the UN or is the Congo  nixing a list of possible contributors presented to the government. If the Indians did offer, then as far as we are concerned, India has done its duty, and we commend the nation. In view of the Congo government's position, we would now recommend India withdraw its contingent. To our mind if you will take no more, you have a problem with those already deployed, and it is best the Indian contingent return home. Thai trawler: UK says sent out message Curiouser and curiouser. UK says it knew the Thai trawler was being hijacked and broadcast a message which may not have reached the Indian frigate that sank the trawler. If so, the Thai owner's assertion his boat could not get a message off is incorrect. Since UK at least knew about the hijack, we find it odd the owner says he knew nothing about where his ship was until he located a crewperson in hospital. Mistakes are always possible, and if the Indian Navy has made a mistake, we hope apologies/compensation will be made. The problem is, under the laws of the sea, a warship cannot fire back unless attacked, and this is how a number of pirates have managed to evade arrest. The same frigate rescued two ships being hijacked the other day, an Indian vessel and a Saudi freighter, and has been patrolling since October. Its reasonable to assume the naval captain is up on his maritime law. Also baffling is why did the pirates not immediately announce they had civilian captives as a way of getting the Indians to back off? Pure speculation on our part: the trawler owner knew his boat had been hijacked, and did nothing as he had no money to pay ransom and no hijack insurance either. It took him a few days to work out his story and go public. Meanwhile, what happened to the trawler's crew? Were they let go by the pirates or were they killed? Bombay terror attacks We honestly have no comment. As mentioned before on occasion, the editor lived through the Punjab insurgency at a time 1000 civilians a month were being murdered, sometimes 100 or even more a day in mass slaughter. What's happened in Bombay is "normal" all countries threatened by Islamists. We are, however proud of the Mahrashtra police: they have lost 3 senior officers including the head of the anti-terror squad who apparently attacked the gunmen while leading from the front. The other two officers apparently also died tackling the gunmen. It is highly commendable they were in the forefront themselves as opposed to giving orders to their men while hunkered safely down. Two other officers and six police rankers have also been killed. With the Army and the specially trained anti-terror/hostage-rescue National Security Guards who draw most of their men from the Army now inside one hotel and ready to enter the other, the sole question is will any of the gunmen survive? The NSG, like their counterparts everywhere, are trained to absolutely deny the benefit of the doubt to the enemy: their job is to kill, not futz around hoping for a captive or two. But for the police, one or more survivors is essential. Nine men have been arrested. If they are part of the gunmen, then all is well and the NSG can go do its thing. By the time you read this, the gunmen are likely to have discovered one way or the other than shooting unwarned civilians is one thing, and taking on the Army is quite another. Late news CNN says the Army has entered the second hotel and quotes a police source as saying nine gunmen are dead so far. 0230 November 26, 2008 Did we say $3-trillion? Ooopsie! Make that $7-trillion Just yesterday we were raving and ranting about the $3-trillion bailout. Today reader Flymike sends an article from Bloomberg.com saying the bailout sum has magically increased to $7.7-trillion over the last couple of days. Aside from the $300-billion additional to Citibank, yesterday the Fed revealed new help of $800-billion. We suggest you read the article yourself because this story is getting more complicated by the day. It's well to remember that Bloomberg.com is hardly the Daily Worker or the People's Revolution or whatever reactionary left rag you can think of - and yes, the left as much as the right can be reactionary despite the left's appropriate of the tag "revolutionary." After all, what's happening now is revolutionary, and this government is certainly not a bunch of lefties. What's most interesting is that Bloomberg is having to resort to FOIA to get information about who is getting what money and what collateral is being put up and what that that collateral is worth. In other words, forget about leveling with the public, the US government is not leveling with even people like Bloomberg. We mention this because there is a school of thought that the collateral being pledged for all the government loans and guarantees is actually worthless. So according to our way of thinking, if the only assets the people being helped can show is taxpayer money, government needs to conduct wholesale nationalization of the financial companies. The auto companies, who want $50-billion, are petty pikers compared to the financial companies. Come on Detroit, why don't you get it? Ask for $500-billion and it will be approved before sundown. No one is interested in giving you a pathetic $50-billion! Robert Gates to remain US Secretary Defense Congratulations to Mr. Obama for truly attempting a bipartisan approach in this troubled time. And by the way, people, don't be so hard on Mr. Obama for electing Hilary's people left, right, and center. Mr. Obama has been in Washington only four years. He doesn't have any of his own people. The real Washington operator is Mrs. Clinton, and he wisely has put her under his tent. Mrs. Clinton and her operatives could have destroyed his presidency is left outside. But there's not-so-good news on Mr. Obama's cabinet/advisors etc. on the financial side: the lot coming in is said to be among the movers and groovers who got us into this Mother of All Messes. Afghanistan Washington Post says that with more troops coming into Afghanistan, US will start pushing into troubled areas where the insurgents have enjoyed a free run. For example, one brigade is to deploy to Wardak and Logar provinces immediately south of Kabul - that is our estimate, not the WashPo's. Things have been going to mongrel dogs in those provinces. At least one brigade will go east to the Pakistan border; the other is likely to go to the south. We remind readers that the modern US "brigade" has 8 rifle companies and the equivalent (at best) of two reconnaissance companies. It really is half a brigade. And truthfully, we feel bad for the troops on the ground because as in Iraq they will be given missions wholly disproportionate to their capabilities. That's the way modern America works at all levels: cut back on resources for everything, and then flog the remaining people to death to get each person to do the work of 2, 3, 4 other people. And keep touting technology as rendering numbers superfluous. A nation that has been at war since 2001 and can provide an increase only of six weak brigades has no business being at war. Please note the jump to 40 brigades came from reorganizing the existing ten divisions. We havent done a proper analysis on this as your editor no longer covers the US Army, but during Gulf I a division usually had 47 companies: ten battalions of four companies and three armored cavalry troops, equal to companies. Now your typical 4-brigade division has 40 companies: you cant equate the new weak reconnaissance squadrons (battalions) to the old armored cavalry squadrons. Thai owner says Indian Navy sank his trawler while it was being hijacked and that his trawler was not a pirate mothership. The Indian Navy says (Press Trust of India, November 26, 2008): The Navy insisted their ship had acted against a pirate vessel which had threatened to attack the Tabar. "We fired in self-defense and in response to firing upon our vessel. It was a pirate vessel in the international waters and its stance was aggressive," said Commodore Nirad Sinha, a navy spokesman. "We don't know in what context such claims were being made," he said, adding the ship that attacked the Tabar was laden with ammunition. He said that the ship, which was in pirate-infested waters, had threatened to blow itself up if the Tabar approached it and sought verification. Indian officials had said sailors on the Tabar saw pirates roaming on the upper deck of the "mother vessel" with guns and rocket-propelled grenade launchers. The vessel fired on the Tabar and the Indian frigate returned fire, setting the pirate ship ablaze and setting off explosions on board. Navy sources, however, said it was likely that the vessel was commandeered by pirates and the owners were now making a claim so that they could get insurance money for the vessel. The Thai owner says his ship was making a distress signal as it was being chased by the speedboats, but that the "connection was lost midway". To this an Indian merchant mariner responds in the comments on the article: "distress message is very short and on(c)e signaled it can't be stopped and it hardly take time to send this message... so this is false claim that the distress message is lost in between". 0230 November 25, 2008 US did not target British militant Instead the strike was mounted to get one of the innumerable al-Masiris floating around the terrorist world. If Rashid Rauf was indeed killed, it was unplanned as the US did not know he was there. So was he there? Are the conspiracy theorists right who say the Pakistanis killed him under interrogation and are using the US strike as cover for his death? We can't say, but its safe to assume that the conspiracy theorists have won a round with the latest disclosure. There are good reasons the Pakistanis, if they did Rauf in, might not want to take responsibility: this Rauf trash was a dual UK-Pakistan national, and the Brits get very teary-eyed if they suspect a human rights violation against a national. Otherwise, in South Asia no one particularly cares about deaths in police custody, and particularly if the person is a wanted insurgent. US bailout in passing We read that before the bank meltdown, US banks were keeping $17-billion reserves in the event they had to write down bad debt. Now they have got $400-billion. Where did that money come from? US Government in the form of cash and guarantees. Did the US government give them your money and mine to add to their bad debt reserves? Did you and I agree that this was what the money was for? No, the money was given so the banks could start lending again and get the economy moving. So anyone going in the government, US Congress, etc going to be punished for this high-grade boondoggle? Obviously not, kids and kidettes. What, you thought America was a democracy under the rule of law? Think again. Its an oligarchy where by various means the rulers get the dumb, mindless public - that's you and me - to sign off on the oligarchs' legitimacy. We've said this before: the only difference between Moscow and Washington at this time is that in Moscow they don't bother playing games to get the "consent" of their people. How did the oligarchs fool us this time? Same old story: loud cries of "economy is about to collapse" repeated all over the media, so us poor know-nothings - the public - start screaming for action, so the government within days takes action, and the whole thing is so complex certainly you and I have no clue what's going on. The action seems to help no one but the oligarchs: an estimated $2.4-2.6 trillion later, the US economy is in deflation - prices dropped 1% in October; American unemployment is likely to go up to 8% next year; people are being thrown out of their homes in record numbers; as for the health care crisis, let's not mention that; Goldman Sachs says US economy will contract 5% in 4th Quarter; and the only thing anyone agrees on is that we are by no means anywhere near the end of the bad news. So the new President is talking about an additional $700-billion stimulus package, which will take the total to $3.1-3.3 trillion and even that people are saying may not work! Are you and I objecting? Not a bit. You and I are sitting cowed and frightened, saying "do what it takes but save my job". We have given the government a blank check, and lets not be surprised that the government is using the check to enrich the special interests. Parenthetical note: US Government would have been better off simply sending every woman, man, and child a check for $10,000 to spend as they want. You want spending, you'd have seen some real spending. Pirates move Saudi tanker to sea to make it harder for competitors such as the Islamist radicals who say they want to recover the ship because its illegal in Islam to steal from other Muslims. Pardon us while we barf. The Islamic regimes have been stealing from their own people forever, and its not okay to steal Islamic money but its okay to kill other Muslims? All the Islamists want is their share of the loot, for having done nothing 0230 November 25, 2008 US did not target British militant Instead the strike was mounted to get one of the innumerable al-Masiris floating around the terrorist world. If Rashid Rauf was indeed killed, it was unplanned as the US did not know he was there. So was he there? Are the conspiracy theorists right who say the Pakistanis killed him under interrogation and are using the US strike as cover for his death? We can't say, but its safe to assume that the conspiracy theorists have won a round with the latest disclosure. There are good reasons the Pakistanis, if they did Rauf in, might not want to take responsibility: this Rauf trash was a dual UK-Pakistan national, and the Brits get very teary-eyed if they suspect a human rights violation against a national. Otherwise, in South Asia no one particularly cares about deaths in police custody, and particularly if the person is a wanted insurgent. US bailout in passing We read that before the bank meltdown, US banks were keeping $17-billion reserves in the event they had to write down bad debt. Now they have got $400-billion. Where did that money come from? US Government in the form of cash and guarantees. Did the US government give them your money and mine to add to their bad debt reserves? Did you and I agree that this was what the money was for? No, the money was given so the banks could start lending again and get the economy moving. So anyone going in the government, US Congress, etc going to be punished for this high-grade boondoggle? Obviously not, kids and kidettes. What, you thought America was a democracy under the rule of law? Think again. Its an oligarchy where by various means the rulers get the dumb, mindless public - that's you and me - to sign off on the oligarchs' legitimacy. We've said this before: the only difference between Moscow and Washington at this time is that in Moscow they don't bother playing games to get the "consent" of their people. How did the oligarchs fool us this time? Same old story: loud cries of "economy is about to collapse" repeated all over the media, so us poor know-nothings - the public - start screaming for action, so the government within days takes action, and the whole thing is so complex certainly you and I have no clue what's going on. The action seems to help no one but the oligarchs: an estimated $2.4-2.6 trillion later, the US economy is in deflation - prices dropped 1% in October; American unemployment is likely to go up to 8% next year; people are being thrown out of their homes in record numbers; as for the health care crisis, let's not mention that; Goldman Sachs says US economy will contract 5% in 4th Quarter; and the only thing anyone agrees on is that we are by no means anywhere near the end of the bad news. So the new President is talking about an additional $700-billion stimulus package, which will take the total to $3.1-3.3 trillion and even that people are saying may not work! Are you and I objecting? Not a bit. You and I are sitting cowed and frightened, saying "do what it takes but save my job". We have given the government a blank check, and lets not be surprised that the government is using the check to enrich the special interests. Parenthetical note: US Government would have been better off simply sending every woman, man, and child a check for $10,000 to spend as they want. You want spending, you'd have seen some real spending. Pirates move Saudi tanker to sea to make it harder for competitors such as the Islamist radicals who say they want to recover the ship because its illegal in Islam to steal from other Muslims. Pardon us while we barf. The Islamic regimes have been stealing from their own people forever, and its not okay to steal Islamic money but its okay to kill other Muslims? All the Islamists want is their share of the loot, for having done nothing 0230 November 24, 2008 A Minor Essay on Redrawn Maps New York Times  says there is much upset in Pakistan over a an American neocon map that shows a truncated Pakistan and enlarged Afghanistan, plus an independent Baluchistan which covers the Baluch areas of Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Apparently the map appeared in a 2006 article in the American magazine Armed Forces Journal International. We took a lot of the map and were mightily Not Amused because the map hands over Pakistan Occupied Kashmir to Afghanistan. Now, of course, the map is a joke, and all it shows is that the author doesn't really understand South Asia well. For example, since any theoretical breakup of Pakistan would have to be done by Indian land forces and American airpower, its a bit weird of the author to think the Indians are going to overrun POK, over which they have legal claims, only to hand it over to the Afghans. Nonetheless, he is smart enough to figure that if NWFP every joins Afghanistan, western Afghanistan will secede, even if it does not join Iran. We wonder: is this the right time for us to publish our revised map of the US? This shows Texas, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, and California as an independent Latino nation allied to Mexico; several other parts of the US including Florida as independent countries allied either with New America (Latino) or Mexico, or the US, and America-as-we-know it consisting of what is left plus Canada. Ooops: we forgot Arcadia: northern California, Washington, and British Columbia as an independent country. Doubtless you're laughing at our theoretical map, but seriously folks, we should all start thinking about the future. America has, since 1990, helped create two dozen new countries out of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia. This sort of thing has deep impact all over the globe even if as yet no one is going public with their thoughts. Czechoslovakia has broken up, Belgium is thinking about it, there's Spain, and the United Kingdom is likely to become the United Kingdom. And of course, there's scores of sub-states in Russia that the US would like to see as independent nations, though this Islamic jihad thing has put a crimp in things. So don't think the Latinos in America, who are set to become the majority in the next 40 years, aren't doing some pondering of their own. You have to understand about the Latinos: they want to be as rich as the North Americans, but they have a 500-year old non-Anglo European culture of their own, and a 1000+ year indigenous culture before that, that they are very proud of. They are not fleeing from political tyranny and religions they are not allowed to practice. They are fleeing poverty. Its inevitable that as time goes by, and as they become the American majority, their thoughts on what the US should look like will not necessarily coincide with what you and I assume is the United States. And the interesting thing is that because of the US failure to control its borders over the last 30 years, even if tomorrow you stopped Latinos from migrating legally, you wont change their march to dominance. Basically the choice before you and me is to learn Spanish or to think of moving north. In my case it will have to be move north. I admire Anglo America and am very comfortable in it. Because of my color I pass as Latino, but the language thing stumps me. Never been good at languages, barely know even one South Asian language, and to save my life I could not learn a new language at my age. All very well, you say, but how come you haven't given us your thoughts on a redrawn map for India. To close to home, eh? Easy for you to pontificate about breaking up the US, but not so your own country, eh? Not really. I have had enough problems with my government to want to get into new problems about redrawn maps. We aren't so politically correct/multicultural in India as we are in the US. To talk of breaking up India can easily be considered treason. And there's another thing: oddly, the trend in India is the reverse of what it is most everywhere else. Indians, who for the last six decades have thought of themselves primarily in regional terms, have started to think of themselves as Indians. And last, I dont believe in breaking up anyone. I want a Greater India, and I want a Greater United States too. So there. 0230 November 23, 2008 Another "Islamist" Scumbag Bites The Dust This is Raul Rauf, a common suspected murderer from UK who in 2002 ran to Pakistan when the police were looking for him for stabbing an uncle to death. In Pakistan he got arrested for something else in 2006 and in the process it was discovered he had been plotting to blow up trans-Atlantic airliners. A Pakistani court discharged him in the terror case, but the UK insisted on his extradition. He "escaped" from custody in 2007. Yesterday it was reported he had been killed in a US missile strike in the North West Frontier Province. Independent of UK thinks an MQ-9 Reaper was the aircraft that fired two missiles at the house this man was occupying. The UAV can carry 4 x Hellfires and 2 x 250-kg bombs, which is a serious bomb load. Conspiracy theorists think the man was killed by Pakistan police while under interrogation and that the Pakistanis are simply blaming the US strike for his death. US, of course, has said nothing and there is no corroborating evidence. Either way, this criminal is not around to grace us with his presence.  We say he was an Islamist in inverted commas because its clear he was anything but. Saying you are going to blow up airliners and assembling a few chemicals does not make you an Islamist. Indian UN Troops Block Government Militia from entering a town just evacuated by the rebels, presumably as part of the rebel cooperation in creating aid corridors. This just proves the point we've made repeatedly: whatever problems troops from other countries may have, if you give Indian troops a clear order, they will carry it out regardless of the consequences to themselves. What is wrong in North Kivu is not that the Indians are not doing their job; it is the that the Confederacy of Dunces aka the UN has no clue what it wants done. We hope the Government of India has made it clear to the UN that if the latter wants more aggressive operations by the Indian contingent, there has to be immunity from prosecution if civilians get killed in the crossfire. We should say "'hope' - think Austin Powers" because the Government is far too busy being stupid to have time to think about its troops deployed with MONUC. Meanwhile, in a complete travesty the Congo government demands that UN troops be more aggressive. This means  the Congo government wants the UN to do the fighting its own troops are incapable of doing. This completely misses the point that the UN is not there to protect Congo against external aggression. As far as we are concerned, the UN reply should be "Sure we'll be more aggressive, just as you want. we'll start by shooting the rabble you call your army next time they loot, rape, or murder civilians." President Obama's Children To Attend Private School Okay, so the American people voted for change. How is it change to send your two children to an elite private day school, Sidwell Friends, and pay a combined $60,000/year in tuition and fees? All you are doing is telling the American people, about 55% of whom make less money per year, "In your face, Sucka." Please spare us the mealy-mouthed pathetic excuses about security. If the Government of the United States cannot provide security for the Presidential Braatz at a DC public school, Government of the US should relocate to a banana republic. And please no one tell us this is a private decision. A private decision? This is the president of the US we are talking about. Not even the brand of toilet paper he uses is a private matter. And also please don't tell us that as parents the Obamas have the right to the best possible education for their children. Our whole point is that the Obamas reek of privilege and class and that they are part and parcel of the corrupt power elite of this country. The last US president to send his kid to public school was the much maligned Jimmy Carter. That man was humble and honest, whatever his problems as a president. Yes, President Obama will have a somewhat different agenda from President Bush, but that is because he is beholden to slightly different special interests. And yes, we do expect he will do more for the "common man" than Mr. Bush. But if anyone thinks Mr. Obama is the man to remake this country with liberty and justice for all, than all we can say "he got ya, suckas." By the way, we don't think its possible for a common man to get elected the US president anymore. You wanna talk about Obama as the Face of Change? Study the money he raised for the campaign, dear boys and girls, study the money. Just as it is everywhere in the world, so it is in America: "Money, money, money, it's a rich man's world". And talking about money, did we mention that the Ambani mansion in Bombay is creeping up to the US$2-billion mark? Yes, folks, that $400-million worth of building for each of the five family members who will live there. In a country where at least 30% of people are malnourished, not because India does not produce enough food, but because corruption and inefficiency in distribution doom the poor. Karma, baby, karma. The Ambanis as good Hindus will pay for their arrogance on Judgment Day, and the Obamas as good Christians are also going to have a bit of explaining to do when they get Upstairs. 0230 November 22, 2008 Somali Pirates and Islamist militias are said to be gathering at the port where the hijacked Saudi tanker is anchored, aiming to get part of the $25-million ransom if it is paid. At least  one Islamist group is not looking for money, but for the pirates who they accuse of an un-Islamic act. Pardon us for being skeptical of the purity of their motives. Reports say the ship is being fortified against possible rescue attempts, and that the Ukraine arms ship which is still blockaded by the US Navy has been rigged with explosives. Two more Russian Navy ships are headed for the Horn. An EU naval task force is also expected by the end of the year. Mrs. Hilary Clinton Next US Secretary of State She will be the third woman in a row to hold the post. The deal is yet to be publicly announced. Her husband has promised to behave himself - he has his own global outreach program. The odds of Mr. Clinton keeps his promise are, we estimate, about zero. He is an attention getter without peer. Former Mexico Drug Czar Under Arrest for allegedly accepting protection money of $450,000/monthly from a drug cartel. BMD News Read Bill Sweetman's article on advances in Ballistic Missile Defense. He implies the US did not undertake a preemptive strike against DPRK's missile facilities because US BMD advances provided another alternative. He also writes about the new Standard 3 Block IIA missile. With its longer range a single Aegis destroyer can defend all of Japan. Block IA missile has a maneuvering kinetic kill warhead, IB missiles will have an improved warhead, and as far as we can tell, the IIA warhead will have greater seek/destroy ranges. Its important to keep in mind that the Standard 3 missiles receives continuous flight corrections after launch, so that each of the 3 stages can change its direction. The warhead has its own terminal seeker and ability to change direction. The warhead is described by Raytheon as provide an impact equal to a 10-ton mass traveling at 1000 kmph. We've often talked of the need for the US to stop focusing on developing all-or-nothing weapons and instead focus on incremental improvements as was the strategy in the 1940-60 period. The Standard missile is a perfect example of an incremental weapon that keeps getting upgraded. The Standard missile has now been in service for four decades. Of course the new Standard III will be a very far cry from the first Standard I, but that's the point. No big risks have been taken at each progressive improvement which is aimed at doing what is possible with existing technology, thoroughly testing prototypes, and then deploying the missile with the fleet. The Aegis system, for example is entering version 4.0.1 for initial 2009 deployment and complete deployment by 2015. These developments have also vindicated the US Navy's three decade old strategy of designing warships with huge empty volumes that would be filled with series of upgrades. Ships like the Spruance destroyers and the Aegis cruisers had empty-looking decks and did not look at all impressive compared to their Soviet counterparts which bristled  with menacing armament arrays. Now the world can see and understand what the US Navy was up to. 0230 November 21, 2008 UN Approves 3000 More Troops for Congo except that no one has any clue from where they will come. More confusion on rules of engagement: apparently some contingents report directly to their national capitals and follow less robust rules of engagement than allowed by the UN. The Blackwater Navy Is Launched The first ship of the US private security firm will carry 40 armed persons and a helicopter and will be available for charter for convoy escort. 3-4 more vessels will join. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/blackwater-gunboats-will-protect-ships-1024582.html Earlier this week a Norway tanker company with 90 ships it would stop using the Suez route. Yesterday a Denmark firm with 50 ships said it would begin routing some ships via the Cape of Good Hope. INS Delhi To Deploy Off Somalia The 6000-ton India designed and built destroyer will join the Tabar which has already twice seen action against pirates. India has approval from the Somali government to chase pirates into Somali waters. While the Indian Navy is prepared to deploy up to 4 warships at a time, it is suggested two warships at a time working with a land-based light MR patrol aircraft might be a better mix. (Report from TNN, an India media source.) Taliban Reject Karzai Offer for direct negotiations until all foreign troops leave. Oil Falls Below $50 and may go down to $30 until the world economy recovers. You Always Suspected: Now You Know 7.3% of the US House and 13% of the Senate will now be composed of persons of the Jewish faith. They consist of 2.3% of the US population. There is truth to the old saw that Jews exert a disproportionate influence over US international politics. South Asians should be about 1.2% of the US population in 2010. Japan Fails To Intercept Ballistic Missile in a joint US-Japan test, reports AP. The purpose of the test was to provide the Japanese Navy with a chance to verify its equipment. Last year Kongo successfully intercepted a missile. The Chokai fired an interceptor at a US missile launched at the Pacific Missile Test Range within 3-minutes of the launch, suggesting this was a boost-phase test. Former Pakistan SSG Commander Killed in Islamabad by men on a motorcycle. The former commander of Pakistan's special forces retired two years ago and was traveling by car. (Times of India). 0230 November 20, 2008 Indian Navy Draws Blood INS Tabar, the Kirvak 4 class frigate on anti-piracy patrol in the Gulf of Aden, on Tuesday encountered a sank a pirate "mother ship". The mothership was seen towing two boats. Because it matched descriptions of a wanted pirate ship, the frigate ordered the ship to stop for a search. The pirates opened fire on the frigate and was sunk in return fire. The two towed boats off; one, chased by the frigate was found empty and the other escaped under cover of darkness. No explanation of the mystery yet. Good job, Indian Navy. Meanwhile, we are a bit agape at a Saudi government announcement saying it was against negotiations/ransoms in such case, but that it could not stop the ship-owners from negotiating, and that is apparently what Aramco/Vela International are doing. Aramco is owned by the Saudis, and they can jolly well stop the company from negotiating. We will be very disappointed if ransom is paid, unless it is as a ploy. Now, Government of India: what about showing some spine re. the troops in the Congo? Why not send 50 Parachute Brigade for a nice exercise? Meanwhile, the rebels have withdrawn north of Goma to permit establishment of humanitarian corridors. BBC reports 11 Congo Army soldiers are to serve life in prison for rape and looting as they fled the rebel advance. Another 12 are to go on trial for similar charges, including one case of the murder of 6 people. While we appreciate the speed with which the Congo government has moved, life in prison for soldiers accused of rape is not an acceptable wartime punishment. The sentence has to be death. Osama 2 i/c Calls Obama a "House Negro" Okay, so no one has accused Al Qaeda of having smarts. But AQ might like to know that some African Americans consider the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to be of dubious ethical standing because its the white man beating up the man of color. This view is widespread in the world, by the way. All that is, of course, is nonsense: US is happy to beat up anyone standing in its way. For example, last we knew Serbia is not exactly a bastion of colored people. The one way to stop American of color from feeling any sympathy for the "victims" of the "white man's" aggression is to insult the president-elect in the crudest possible terms. That said, we find it kind of odd an Arab would use this term. Just our instinct. 0230 November 19, 2008 Why America Is In Decline There are, of course, many reasons. One is America is becoming deeply afflicted by KCS - King Canute Syndrome. KCS's main symptom is "I said it is so, so it is so" regardless of reality. Yesterday we came across a great example of KCS. But first, read the below, from the BBC http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7735159.stm ...a commander in the UN mission (Monuc) says he cannot defeat rebels because of his rules of engagement. General Bipin Rawat, who commands 6,000 troops, told the UK's Daily Telegraph newspaper that his forces were denied any element of surprise by having to go into the jungle with white trucks and white armoured vehicles. UN troops also have to fire warning shots and shout verbal warnings before engaging the rebels, who are gathered near the town of Goma, he said. However, US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs  said the mandate was as tough as it could get. "Monuc has a Chapter Seven mandate that gives them the authority to protect the civilian population, to protect the peacekeepers themselves and to act very robustly against those negative forces in the Congo,"  (the US official) told the BBC's Hard Talk programme. We have a simple question to ask of this US official. Would you commit US troops under such a mandate, which according to you is very robust? Our non-military readers may need to know that not only does the US never put US troops under UN command, it refuses to put US troops under anyone's command very clearly defined circumstances such as NATO. And of course, we know who really gives the orders to NATO. One of the reasons the US wont put its troops under UN command is precisely the UN's rules of engagement. You would have a mutiny by American generals if they were told to observe the rules the State Department person thinks are very robust. Now, the official is probably right to say the rules are as tough as it could get. But instead of drawing the logical conclusion, that the rules need to be changed and the US as world leader should be in the forefront, this official is basically telling UN troops they have a very robust mandate, so they need to deal with the rebels and stop whining. This is KCS in action, ladies and gentlemen. By the way, we often say the US is in decline but we never express alarm. That's because once the Boomers die off, you will see a huge shift in the way Americans function. There is every hope for America - once the boomers are sent to their just reward, which we don't think is the Upstairs Place, BTW. More Somali Pirate Hijackings Three more ships have been hijacked, and it appears that the pirates pull in a ship and then race off immediately to take another one while their fellows on shore do the negotiations and so on. One of the hijacked ships was taken last Saturday but reported only yesterday. The rumor is the pirates have asked for a $250-million ransom for the 318,000-ton Saudi tanker they seized the other day. We're not sure on what basis they arrived at this figure unless they think because its Saudi-owned and the Saudis are rich they will get this money. The Saudis absolutely do not give one teeny burp for the crew - not everyone in the world is a bleeding heart. If the crew get killed, the Saudis no doubt will make a gift, as is their wont, to the families, but they per se are never going to pay ransom. Vela International is owned by ARAMCO, which is owned by the Saudis, so the shipowners cannot make a private deal. This will be an interesting situation to watch. November 18, 2008 Fighting in Another North Kivu Town "Heavy" fighting has erupted between rebels and Congo government forces at a town 90 km north of Goma. Before people start at the UN again, let's note that "scores" of civilians sought shelter with the UN contingent' the troops did not allow the civilians inside their base. So let's ask an obvious question: would any professional army  with one of its jobs as being protection of civilians permit refugees inside their base, particularly when the base is simply a spot barricaded with wire and sandbags? The Sun Rises in the East. Yawn. Here are two paras from an article in the International Herald Tribune: The government of Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki is systematically dismissing the oversight officials installed to fight corruption in Iraqi ministries by order of the American occupation administration, which had hoped to bring Western standards of accountability to the opaque and graft-ridden bureaucracy here. The dismissals of the oversight officials, known as inspectors general, which were confirmed by senior Iraqi and U.S. government officials on Sunday and Monday, come as estimates of official Iraqi corruption soar, with one former Iraqi chief investigator recently testifying before Congress that $13 billion in U.S. taxpayer money had been lost to fraud, embezzlement, theft and waste in the reconstruction program by Iraqi government officials. So what is the big deal here that is supposed to outrage us? This is Iraq, where the government has always been run for the benefit of those in power. Of a sudden Iraqi leaders are supposed to change their way and adhere to American 2008 standards of public service? Ha ha. And BTW, how long did it America to come up to American standards of 2008 in this respect. Our New Irish-American President From the news you would never guess that we'd elected an Irish-American president. Oh, you thought we'd elected an African-American as president? Tut tut. He is just as much Irish-American as African-American. So either we call him African-American on odd numbered days and Irish-American on even numbered days, or we drop the issue of race altogether, or Orbat.com is going to have to remind people he is as Irish-American as he is African-American. Thanks to James P. Freemon for reminding us of the obvious. Somali Pirates Hijack 320,000-ton Saudi tanker approximately 650-km into the Indian Ocean. The ship carries 2-million barrels of oil and is fully laden. It is being taken to a Somali port. US 5th Fleet indicates that as this is not a serious matter as Ukraine freighter MV Farina, which is carrying arms, a rescue effort may not be mounted. Approximately 60 shops have been hijacked this year by Somali pirates. Twelve with 250 crew are still in captivity. Reuters says because of rising insurance premiums, using the Cape of Good Hope route is almost the same cost as the Suez route. A Scandinavian shipping company says it will no longer use the Suez route. Meanwhile, the Gulf of Aden, which has been patrolled continuously since October 20 has seen no hijackings. ROK is the latest nation considering dispatch of a warship for shipping protection. 0230 GMT November 17, 2008 Goodbye Somalia? By the government's own admission, it controls only Baidoa and Mogadishu; the rest of the country has been lost to the Islamists. They're a rabid lot, but this time even they're having trouble with a youth group that's more rabid than they. Are the Ethiopians going to reenter and push the Islamists out again as they did last year? We are doubtful, but lets see. US options? Zilch. US is already overextended as we've said many times before. Somalia is only one consequence of the Iraq obsession and the refusal to add ground units to the Army/Marines in numbers that are needed. US either rethinks GWOT or we're going to lose the war. Afghan President Says Ready To Negotiate With Taliban Chief Despite US Knowing he is on the way out, President Karzai has fired off a broadside against the US. He says he is ready to guarantee the Taliban leader's security for peace talks. He says the US can either remove him or leave Afghanistan, and either course is okay by him. The US will take the first course, but we hope Washington's ducks are in a row. No one is indispensable, but whatever Karazai's problems, he is a secular liberal, and very pro-west. Who comes after is a big question mark to us? Iraq Parliament Said Read To Back 2011 Troop Deadline The Iraq PM has been refusing to committing personal capital in arguing for the preferred US deadline for withdrawal of combat troops. But now SICRI's Grand Ayatollah Sistani says he's agreeable, and the PM says Parliament will pass the agreement. US has made only minor concessions. Al-Sadr says he will fight if the 2011 date is accepted by the government. Where is Iran in this? Iran's honeymoon with Obama is over - and that's before Mr. Obama has even taken office. Obviously Teheran has heard what we've been saying: America's interests are America's interests; they are not Bush's interests - sorry about that, all ye Bush-haters. After all, US has followed the same policy of isolating Iran for 30 years. That's Ford, Carter, Regan, Bush I, Clinton, Bush II. So we think that Iran, having quickly come down to reality will see no profit in accommodating US wish to stay on till 2011 and beyond. So we expect growing problems, i.e., a reversal of Iran's policy to muzzle al-Sadr on the then excellent presumption that it was better not to give the Americans an excuse to stay by adding to the confusion. Right now, however, the Americans are not going to reverse course on withdrawals beyond slowing up a bit if trouble erupts. Its politically out of the question for the next few years at least to rebuild force levels in Iraq. By creating trouble, Teheran will accelerate its goal - suspended during the honeymoon - of appearing to have defeated the Americans. This is of enormous political import for the Iranians. Readers may remember Mr. Obama took flak for saying he was ready to talk to the Iranians. The Iranians are now saying there's no point to talks with the US when the Americans are not going to change their position. In other words they've been put on the defensive, and this is a good thing. US should keep offering talks, and if the Iranians accept the gambit, there are all sorts of ways to keeping talks going forever. The world should NOT be allowed to blame the US for its unreasonableness. These are games people play, and its important to play them. (PS: Teheran's honeymoon with Obama has lasted a shorter period than some of the editor's marriages.) 0230 November 19, 2008 Why America Is In Decline There are, of course, many reasons. One is America is becoming deeply afflicted by KCS - King Canute Syndrome. KCS's main symptom is "I said it is so, so it is so" regardless of reality. Yesterday we came across a great example of KCS. But first, read the below, from the BBC http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7735159.stm ...a commander in the UN mission (Monuc) says he cannot defeat rebels because of his rules of engagement. General Bipin Rawat, who commands 6,000 troops, told the UK's Daily Telegraph newspaper that his forces were denied any element of surprise by having to go into the jungle with white trucks and white armoured vehicles. UN troops also have to fire warning shots and shout verbal warnings before engaging the rebels, who are gathered near the town of Goma, he said. However, US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs  said the mandate was as tough as it could get. "Monuc has a Chapter Seven mandate that gives them the authority to protect the civilian population, to protect the peacekeepers themselves and to act very robustly against those negative forces in the Congo,"  (the US official) told the BBC's Hard Talk programme. We have a simple question to ask of this US official. Would you commit US troops under such a mandate, which according to you is very robust? Our non-military readers may need to know that not only does the US never put US troops under UN command, it refuses to put US troops under anyone's command very clearly defined circumstances such as NATO. And of course, we know who really gives the orders to NATO. One of the reasons the US wont put its troops under UN command is precisely the UN's rules of engagement. You would have a mutiny by American generals if they were told to observe the rules the State Department person thinks are very robust. Now, the official is probably right to say the rules are as tough as it could get. But instead of drawing the logical conclusion, that the rules need to be changed and the US as world leader should be in the forefront, this official is basically telling UN troops they have a very robust mandate, so they need to deal with the rebels and stop whining. This is KCS in action, ladies and gentlemen. By the way, we often say the US is in decline but we never express alarm. That's because once the Boomers die off, you will see a huge shift in the way Americans function. There is every hope for America - once the boomers are sent to their just reward, which we don't think is the Upstairs Place, BTW. More Somali Pirate Hijackings Three more ships have been hijacked, and it appears that the pirates pull in a ship and then race off immediately to take another one while their fellows on shore do the negotiations and so on. One of the hijacked ships was taken last Saturday but reported only yesterday. The rumor is the pirates have asked for a $250-million ransom for the 318,000-ton Saudi tanker they seized the other day. We're not sure on what basis they arrived at this figure unless they think because its Saudi-owned and the Saudis are rich they will get this money. The Saudis absolutely do not give one teeny burp for the crew - not everyone in the world is a bleeding heart. If the crew get killed, the Saudis no doubt will make a gift, as is their wont, to the families, but they per se are never going to pay ransom. Vela International is owned by ARAMCO, which is owned by the Saudis, so the shipowners cannot make a private deal. This will be an interesting situation to watch. November 18, 2008 Fighting in Another North Kivu Town "Heavy" fighting has erupted between rebels and Congo government forces at a town 90 km north of Goma. Before people start at the UN again, let's note that "scores" of civilians sought shelter with the UN contingent' the troops did not allow the civilians inside their base. So let's ask an obvious question: would any professional army  with one of its jobs as being protection of civilians permit refugees inside their base, particularly when the base is simply a spot barricaded with wire and sandbags? The Sun Rises in the East. Yawn. Here are two paras from an article in the International Herald Tribune: The government of Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki is systematically dismissing the oversight officials installed to fight corruption in Iraqi ministries by order of the American occupation administration, which had hoped to bring Western standards of accountability to the opaque and graft-ridden bureaucracy here. The dismissals of the oversight officials, known as inspectors general, which were confirmed by senior Iraqi and U.S. government officials on Sunday and Monday, come as estimates of official Iraqi corruption soar, with one former Iraqi chief investigator recently testifying before Congress that $13 billion in U.S. taxpayer money had been lost to fraud, embezzlement, theft and waste in the reconstruction program by Iraqi government officials. So what is the big deal here that is supposed to outrage us? This is Iraq, where the government has always been run for the benefit of those in power. Of a sudden Iraqi leaders are supposed to change their way and adhere to American 2008 standards of public service? Ha ha. And BTW, how long did it America to come up to American standards of 2008 in this respect. Our New Irish-American President From the news you would never guess that we'd elected an Irish-American president. Oh, you thought we'd elected an African-American as president? Tut tut. He is just as much Irish-American as African-American. So either we call him African-American on odd numbered days and Irish-American on even numbered days, or we drop the issue of race altogether, or Orbat.com is going to have to remind people he is as Irish-American as he is African-American. Thanks to James P. Freemon for reminding us of the obvious. Somali Pirates Hijack 320,000-ton Saudi tanker approximately 650-km into the Indian Ocean. The ship carries 2-million barrels of oil and is fully laden. It is being taken to a Somali port. US 5th Fleet indicates that as this is not a serious matter as Ukraine freighter MV Farina, which is carrying arms, a rescue effort may not be mounted. Approximately 60 ships have been hijacked this year by Somali pirates. Twelve with 250 crew are still in captivity. Reuters says because of rising insurance premiums, using the Cape of Good Hope route is almost the same cost as the Suez route. A Scandinavian shipping company says it will no longer use the Suez route. Meanwhile, the Gulf of Aden, which has been patrolled continuously since October 20 has seen no hijackings. ROK is the latest nation considering dispatch of a warship for shipping protection. 0230 GMT November 17, 2008 Goodbye Somalia? By the government's own admission, it controls only Baidoa and Mogadishu; the rest of the country has been lost to the Islamists. They're a rabid lot, but this time even they're having trouble with a youth group that's more rabid than they. Are the Ethiopians going to reenter and push the Islamists out again as they did last year? We are doubtful, but lets see. US options? Zilch. US is already overextended as we've said many times before. Somalia is only one consequence of the Iraq obsession and the refusal to add ground units to the Army/Marines in numbers that are needed. US either rethinks GWOT or we're going to lose the war. Afghan President Says Ready To Negotiate With Taliban Chief Despite US Knowing he is on the way out, President Karzai has fired off a broadside against the US. He says he is ready to guarantee the Taliban leader's security for peace talks. He says the US can either remove him or leave Afghanistan, and either course is okay by him. The US will take the first course, but we hope Washington's ducks are in a row. No one is indispensable, but whatever Karazai's problems, he is a secular liberal, and very pro-west. Who comes after is a big question mark to us? Iraq Parliament Said Read To Back 2011 Troop Deadline The Iraq PM has been refusing to committing personal capital in arguing for the preferred US deadline for withdrawal of combat troops. But now SICRI's Grand Ayatollah Sistani says he's agreeable, and the PM says Parliament will pass the agreement. US has made only minor concessions. Al-Sadr says he will fight if the 2011 date is accepted by the government. Where is Iran in this? Iran's honeymoon with Obama is over - and that's before Mr. Obama has even taken office. Obviously Teheran has heard what we've been saying: America's interests are America's interests; they are not Bush's interests - sorry about that, all ye Bush-haters. After all, US has followed the same policy of isolating Iran for 30 years. That's Ford, Carter, Regan, Bush I, Clinton, Bush II. So we think that Iran, having quickly come down to reality will see no profit in accommodating US wish to stay on till 2011 and beyond. So we expect growing problems, i.e., a reversal of Iran's policy to muzzle al-Sadr on the then excellent presumption that it was better not to give the Americans an excuse to stay by adding to the confusion. Right now, however, the Americans are not going to reverse course on withdrawals beyond slowing up a bit if trouble erupts. Its politically out of the question for the next few years at least to rebuild force levels in Iraq. By creating trouble, Teheran will accelerate its goal - suspended during the honeymoon - of appearing to have defeated the Americans. This is of enormous political import for the Iranians. Readers may remember Mr. Obama took flak for saying he was ready to talk to the Iranians. The Iranians are now saying there's no point to talks with the US when the Americans are not going to change their position. In other words they've been put on the defensive, and this is a good thing. US should keep offering talks, and if the Iranians accept the gambit, there are all sorts of ways to keeping talks going forever. The world should NOT be allowed to blame the US for its unreasonableness. These are games people play, and its important to play them. (PS: Teheran's honeymoon with Obama has lasted a shorter period than some of the editor's marriages.) 0230 GMT November 16, 2008 Sri Lanka Army Continues Offensive Push It has now recaptured all territory lost since the start of civil war on the western side of the island nation, and is positioned to attack the rebel capital Killinochi from three sides. Seizure of the rebel capital does not necessarily mean war's end, but having to return to Phase I guerilla warfare - attacks of opportunity on towns and military posts - after years of success in Phase II - rebel controlled territory with their own capital and government - is going to be hard. We foresee that thousands of rebels will desert the movement but there will be no formal ceasefire. Somalia Falling Under Islamists Again we haven't had time to make a detailed study of the ground situation, but it looks like the Islamists are back and retaking large swathes of the country. We'll update you ASAP. Washington Post Discovers Obama's Lobbyists as President-elect Obama names more and more people to his transition team and personal staff, the WashPo has "discovered" that despite Obama's statements during the campaign, he - like any other president - has brought on board large numbers of lobbyists. Why WashPo expected things to be different is beyond us. Did WashPo fall for the fiction that Bush 43 was in wicked thrall to lobbyists and that Obama 44 would not? Its time for WashPo to realize that the power elite is the power elite, no matter what their camouflage, and that WashPo is also part and parcel of the elite. Meaning it is as serving of special interests and as corrupt as anyone else in this town. Our point is, it cannot be different. Obama needs very experienced people to run the country; that means he has to take very experienced operatives, and that means it's going to be out Out with the Old, In with the Same Old. If the American people thought it was going to be different, then all we can suggest is they each smack themselves on the hand with a rolled-up newspaper 101 times. If Obama really brought in a clean team, these chappies wouldn't know how to operate a flush toilet and the country would go down the drain so fast there wouldn't be time to figure if the water is swirling clockwise or anti-clockwise. Further, just because Mr. Obama is an African American doesn't mean he is not part and parcel of the power elite. Nothing To Do With The GWOT And by-the-way, everyone is rushing to adopt Mr. Obama as African American, but he is not. His mother was white. Just as one drop of black blood was sufficient to make you a non-white in the old South, one drop of white blood takes away your right to be called African, and our new Prez is 50% white. Good for America. Not that this makes the least difference as far as Orbat.com is concerned. We accept the proposition of the African Eve, that every single last one of us who walks the earth today is descended from the same mother, an African woman, and she sure as heck was not a blue-eyed blonde, as I explain to my students. Oddly, I don't have to tell them that Jesus was not white because that's a now dated theme in the story on race. When one gets old, silly things from the past surface. The other day, a colleague in my 99% minority school commented on the attractiveness of a white teacher, and then immediately had to go into a long complicated explanation of why he wouldn't date a white woman though he has nothing against white women. Trying to calm him down, a time from my youth popped into my mind. My dad decided he had to have The Talk with me, then 17-years old. This is not something a kid looks forward to. My dad, bless his soul, looked me in the eye and uttered seven words: "All cats are alike in the dark". This story got my colleague laughing and at last off his jag. But he still could let go of his guilt at having complimented - from afar - a white woman. "I guess you like white women, Mr. Ravi," he chuckled. Like them? I was legally married to two, and would have been married to another except it turned out she didn't know her divorce has not come through. When I was first in the US, I was part of the white culture so I liked white women. When I was in India, I like Indian women. When I came back to the US and worked in a white school, I liked white women. Now I am in an African-American/Hispanic school, so I like African-American and Hispanic women. I honestly don't see what race has to do with this, anymore than my dad did - he was a multiculturist long before anyone knew what a multiculturist was. So my folks were pushing me to have The Talk with my youngest after he turned 14. I managed to avoid it for a year, but the parental pressure got too much. Like my dad, I tried to be brief. "Son, this is the age of AIDS and STDs. The condoms are in the drawer.  Should a condom fail, no abortions: give me the kid." My parents hit the roof. Right now, of course, the problem is different. Its been so long since I had a date I have forgotten what one does with a woman, unless its read the bible. Or am I hanging around with the wrong kind of women? 0230 GMT November 15, 2008 Indian Navy Frigate Rescues Two Cargo Ships Off Aden on November 11, 2008. INS Tabar (F44) came to the rescue of an India-owned ship and a Saudi cargo ship that were under attack by ~20-25 pirates. A helicopter with marine commandos was dispatched in response to an SOS by the Indian ship; the helicopter fired on the pirates and they dispersed. The frigate had by then reached the ships and also fired on the fleeing boats. But here is the cankerworm in the rose. When the US requested India's participation in the anti-piracy mission, the Indians responded promptly: anything to impress the Big Guy and his press. When the UN asked for more troops for the Congo, the Indians were nowhere to be seen. So, working with the white powers is okay; saving black lives is a matter of no concern. In the first case, we are thrilled to be invited to the in-crowd's club. In the other case, honestly, who cares? And just so no one misses the point: the Indians have asked the UN to set up an anti-piracy task force under UN command. Meanwhile, what about protecting our troops in another UN Mission? "Sorry, the line connection is very bad...what? We cant hear you! What? I SAID WE CANT HEAR YOU!" Tabar is a Talwar class frigate (Weapons class), one of the three built in Russia. The frigate is basically a Krivak IV modified to Indian requirements. How The Congo Army Protects Its People Quote from London Times The first soldiers kicked down the door to her house, killed her younger brother, his wife and son. Then, as Ngiraganga fled barefoot towards safety, she came across the second wave of soldiers. They asked her for money and when she explained that she had nothing to give they took her clothes, stripping the 42-year-old to her underwear. The third group of soldiers took all she had left. “They beat me and raped me,” Ngiraganga said quietly in Swahili, sitting in the gloomy office of a women’s shelter. “They weren’t drunk, just dirty from the fighting.” This woman found clothes on the road as she fled, and is now in a refugee camp of 60,000 people in Goma. She left three children behind in her home town now under rebel control. Not quite Sophie's Choice, but think about it: what would you do in her position? Stay to protect your children and risk being raped again and killed, or abandon your children to save yourself? You might want to spend a few seconds on this while you sit in front of your TV, hugging your couch and your keg and cheering your favorite team. Care to imagine the reaction to this story had the woman been a blonde, blue-eyed, Euro in the Balkans? But hey, guys and gals, its only those black Africans, right? So honestly, who cares? Government forces push rebels five kilometers back outside Goma all to the greater good, but there is a downside. Every time the front line changes, the civilians have to make another move to safety. Obama The Consensuser Mr. Obama promised a non-partisan approach to ruling the US, and heaven knows but that this is what the US needs at this critical juncture. So rumors swirl that he will ask Senator Hilary Clinton to be his Secretary of State and keep the current Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates. There is a possibility he may keep the two top intelligence officials to ensure continuity, and change them when it seems safe. The only thing that is not rumor is that Senator McCain and the president-elect have a meeting scheduled where they will discuss ideas to reduce partisanship in Clown Town, aka Washington DC. 0230 GMT November 14, 2008 Angola Sending Troops to Congo according to government sources in Luanda. Meanwhile, rebel forces have been busy impressing children into their force. About Time: Royal Navy Attacks Somali Pirates who had earlier tried to hijack a Denmark freighter. Royal Marines in two assault boats from HMS Cumberland demanded the surrender of the pirate dhow. The dhow refused and opened fire on the Marines. The Marines retaliated, killing 2 pirates, and possibly a third, before the dhow surrendered. What is this nonsense? The dhow was clearly identified as a pirate ship. The British destroyer should simply have sunk the vessel. If the Brits wanted to play Marquis of Queensbury rules, okay, send the assault boats. But once the pirates fired on the Marines, they should all have been killed. Its this pointless soft heartedness by the west that encourages the scum of the sea to continue marauding. That the pirates dared open fire on the Royal Navy in the first place shows how flippant these people have become. The next batch will surrender, be released to the Somali "government", and then who knows what happens? This kindheartedness is not going to stop piracy. Klasse Klowne Awarde goes to the UN official who announced to the people of Goma they should not worry as the UN and Congo National Army (ANC) troops were present to protect them. Does not this doofus understand that the greatest proven threat to Congo civilians is their own army? UN HQ in La La Land Meanwhile, a special representative of the UN chief arrives in Kiwanja with a view to seeing if the UN outpost there needs strengthening. Someone has to fly from New York 9 days after the fighting at Kiwanji began to see if reinforcements are needed? Er - you have 135 troops trying to handle a thousand or so Mai Mai pro-government militia, several hundred rebels, and tens of thousands of refugees, and you have to investigate to see if reinforcements are needed? The UN official adds to the mass confusion shown by UN political commanders by saying, in effect: "No, no, no, UN is not here to fight, it is here to protect the civilians even with limited means." Oh dear. The military commanders thought their job was to protect against the rebels and to stop the militias fighting each other and the Congo Army, as also to look after the civilians. So, ten years into the mission, the military commanders don't have their mission right. So who are the blithering idiots, the political commanders or the military commanders? And since the Special Rep wants civilians to be protected even if UN troops have limited resources, may we suggest she stay back in Kiwanja and may we ask the UN troops to find an AK-47 for her so she can join them in a heroic defense of the civilians? We are sure the UN garrison will welcome any reinforcements. Oh yes, how does she propose the UN protect the civilians without fighting those who threaten the civilians, i.e., the rebels and the government militias? Its just one moron after another for MONUC. By the way, the MONUC Information Office from which we are repeating the details, says that 5000 refugees set up camp next to the peacekeepers. Since the rebels are busy forcing refugees out of the camps, if the peacekeepers are doing nothing to protect the civilians, how come the rebels didn't also clear this camp? Aviation Week Blog Disputes Iran Claim to have developed solid fuel ballistic missiles. See Ares Blog which is the source for the photo below, from an official Iran news agency. Iraq Air Force Plans 2011-2015 www.longwarjournal.org reports the Iraq air Force is to buy 516 aircraft by 2015. Presently it has less than 100. The buy for 2011 is: 36 F-16 (2 squadrons); 24 AT-6B trainers, 24 EC-635 Utility/Attack Helos, and 24 Bell-407 Armed Recon Helos. longwarjournal figures a total of 14 fighter, 1 trainer, 5 armed recon helo, and 5 attack helo squadrons will be established. See http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/11/plans_for_iraqi_air.php for the story details. 0230 GMT November 13, 2008 More Blah From Mr. Change Agent He will step up the search for Osama. So he thinks the previous government was not trying hard enough? He'll find out, soon enough, that capturing Osama - if he is alive - is not easy. And of course, should Osama be captured or killed by the US during the President-elect's term, people will say that Mr. Bush had no interest in capturing him. Closing Guantanamo is a priority for the President-elect because he believes this will help reverse the horrible loss of reputation the US has suffered since the prison was set up. He is right on the loss of reputation part: insular Americans just cannot imagine how much hatred exists for the US across the board across the world because of Abu Gharib and Guantanamo. We're talking hatred, folks, not dislike. But no sooner than the President-elect's sources indicate closing Guantanamo is a priority, a raft of reasons appear in the media saying why this is not as simple as it looks because of legal and logistical issues. Huh? Its legal to torture enemy combatants and deny them any semblance of a fair trial, fund no case against most but still refuse to release them, but its not legal to say: "we made a mistake; these people will be returned to a US Army installation stateside and tried under military law"? There are no logistic issues in keeping functioning a jail overseas that probably has a 6-1 ratio of guards to prisoners but there are logistic issues on where to send people against whom no case is made? Come on, people, lets let a little reality intrude on out discussions. Our position, off-stated, has not changed. There is no category such as "enemy combatant." Geneva says fighters in uniform belonging to a state have protection if captured. People not in uniform and fighting as citizens of no state do not enjoy protections. These men should simply have been shot after interrogation. Cleaning up the NWFP An American officer has said that no one except for Chengez Khan ever pacified the NWFP, and he did it by executing everyone in sight. Obviously, says the officer, we Americans operate under self-restraints and can't do this. Okay, so if we can't do this, we aren't going to clean up the NWFP and neither is Pakistan - not that the latter wants to. As such, we cannot win the war, and we need to get out. There is no other conclusion. Congo The UN cannot agree on the need for more troops to Congo and will take up the question again in a month. Meantime, far from sending more troops to the Congo, the Indian Government and media have been mum on the fighting to the point there is no meaningful coverage of the fighting in Indian papers, according to letter writer Rocky, a retired military officer from India. From an European think tank (from Monuc.org, November 12, 2008). "The rebels accuse MONUC of fighting against them, the Congolese army accuses it of not fighting enough with it, and the people accuse it of no longer protecting them. The result is that no one trusts it anymore." MONUC's operational problems can also be explained by rules of engagement that differ between national contingents that make up its peacekeeping troops on the ground. Risky operations by the Congolese army have also helped to discredit MONUC, a diplomatic source said, with government forces "starting action without consultation with MONUC and then asking it to take over when it becomes a rout". More generally, Zeebroek (of the think tank) asks, can the United Nations "keep the peace if none of protagonists are ready to respect their commitments?" The above is a fair statement of the UN's dilemma But meanwhile, UN HQ and political commanders refuse to take responsibility for what happened at Kiwanja, where 135 peacekeepers are stationed. They are mostly Indian, and the total is very small compared to the missions the contingent has to perform: force protection, protection of UN civilians and officers, protection of aid civilians and foreigners, patrolling the town, AND on top of that protect tens of thousands of refugees while in the middle of two warring militias that are also firing on the UN. At Kiwanja, ~50 civilians were killed by both sides, and the troops are being repeatedly accused of just standing aside, whereas in fact they were trying to do their best in an impossible situation. But why were the troops not going on the offensive against the combatants, even assuming it was tactical possible? Did the UN commanders issue orders and the troops just ignored them? No, Sir and Madam, that did not happen. If you believe that, as so many media and aid organizations seem to, you are simply exposing crass ignorance of the Indian Army. Indian troops follow orders no matter how inane and how hopeless the orders, no matter how high the risk to them and no matter how low the chance of survival. The Indian troops, which would have been commanded by a major, a captain, and a couple of subalterns were NOT given the order to attack the combatants. They were not given the order not because the UN policy is zero casualties, but because  (a) it is likely very high civilian casualties would have occurred in the cross firing, as the refugees were completely mixed up with the UN troops and the other combatants; (b) you do not launch a single company into an attack against hundreds of combatants from two factions who are fighting each other, when the company has no idea of where the enemy is, and how many they are, except for the enemy it is directly facing; (c) the Indians most certainly would have overrun both the Mai Mai militia and Rwanda rebels in front of them, both combatants would have run from contact with the Indians, and both would have turned on the civilians. With civilians dying by the hundreds, the very first thing that would have happened is exactly the same people who are blaming the peacekeepers for inaction would have been screaming for blood, and the very same UN HQ and political commanders who are now saying the peacekeepers should have acted, would have disavowed them. Kindly note in December 2007, when ordered, Indian troops and attack helicopters counterattacked the same rebels, killing hundreds and preventing the fall of Goma. We lately learn that again, in October/November 2008, orders were given to attack the Rwandan rebels as they advanced on Goma. But the rebels were not just dispersed because they were aiming at several towns - and in the absence of proper reconnaissance and air power there was no way of knowing details/countering these dispersed thrusts, they were also dispersed because they learned from  their December 2007 defeat and traveled in small groups. The Indians did engage the rebels, but could not turn them back as they were dispersed. at the same time, kindly note the rebels stopped outside of Goma. This was not due to any kindness or love of peace on their parts, it was because they knew if the attacked Goma, the Indian mechanized battalion there would have counterattacked. To take Goma, the rebels would have had to concentrate, and then it would have been goodbye rebels. So how can anyone in their right mind talk of peacekeepers standing aside? But to us the morons at UN HQ and in command are not the point The point is the morons in New Delhi. Do they think they can simply out 4500 troops under UN command and then eschew all responsibility for them? These are Indian troops and it is the Government of India's duty to protect them. Protection could have come two ways. One, tell the UN the Government of India has ordered its commanders to evacuate. Two, send reinforcements to help the threatened troops. Which country in its right mind leaves its men in unsupported companies and platoons all over a vast terrain of tens of thousands of square miles? There are 4-6000 rebels, several thousand Rwandan regulars, and 1000+ Mai Mai militia. What is the Government of India want its men to do? Sit there and fight to the last round if attacked? The Government of India is indeed fortunate that the Indian troops are facing a rabble. Otherwise we could be looking at a big disaster. The behavior of the Indian government is craven, immoral and incompetent. We call on the Indian government not to put its troops in an impossible position. Withdraw them and face the consequences internationally, or reinforce them. 0230 GMT November 12, 2008 Russian Nerpa/Indian Navy Chakra: More From Shiv Aroor: The Nerpa/Chakra investigations are still on. The Indians have explicitly asked the Russians not to talk about the India-connection on the Nerpa. No, the reactor is definitely not the ATV's PWR -- the Indian PWR was moved to Vizag sometime in early 2006 during the drive turbine and dynamometer telemetry trials. The ATV hits water next year. 2009's going to be a very interesting year for the Indian Navy and nuclear submarines!" Mr. Aroor's blog is at http://livefist.blogspot.com/ On Monday November 10th he wrote on his blog: "Amidst all the parochial clamour about "no Indian casualties" and how India will now pay more for the submarine, there's still the terrible tragedy of 21 Russian sailors and technicians who died a painful death inside Chakra. A minute for them, if you please." A retired Russian Navy officer familiar with submarines has said that it is possible the dead/injured workers/sailors on board INS Chakra did not hear the warning sirens before the compartments were flooded with Freon, or did not understand the meaning of the siren. Freon, an inert gas, quickly combines with oxygen. The trapped workers/sailors would have suffocated to death. It may be that one of the two affected compartments was automatically sealed, making escape impossible. President-Elect Obama's Afghanistan Plan According to details in CNN, the incoming president will try a regional approach in Afghanistan, send more troops, and continue UA strikes against wanted militants. The regional approach has been used by President bush since 2001. It has failed. The US lacks sufficient troops to send to Afghanistan to make a difference. The reinforcement will fail. As for the UAV strikes, we completely understand US frustrations and that the US cannot just let insurgent leaders enjoy safe haven in Pakistan. At the same time, every strike raises Pakistani anger against their own government and against the US. There will soon come a time that the Pakistan government will have to actively oppose the strikes, or it will be overthrown by its own people. We are not sure if Pakistan's "Awakening" project, urged by the US after its great success in Iraq, will fly. In Iraq the US first defeated the insurgents and then exploited tribal divisions to eliminate the insurgents. US military power was available 24/7 to punish insurgents who attacked the Awakenings. In Pakistan, the government owns many insurgent factions - together called the Taliban, and the Pakistan government will not destroy these factions, no matter what America says, because they are a critical component of Pakistan's national security. The US armed Iraqi Awakenings; the Pakistanis, who are opposed by all tribal groups in the region, are handing out a few obsolete weapons and do not come to anyone's help when the Taliban or Al-Qaeda in Pakistan-Afghanistan (AQ-PA) attacks. The Pakistanis are right not to seriously arm the tribals, because the tribals resent everyone encroaching on their territory. So Sundays, Tuesday's Thursdays the tribals will fight those Taliban factions that the local tribe deems neccessary to fight, on Saturdays, Mondays, and Wednesdays they will fight the Pakistan Army, and on Fridays everyone will rest. If anyone thought tribal politics in Iraq are complex, Iraq is kindergarten stuff compared to Afghanistan/Pakistan tribal politics. There are hundreds, yes, hundreds of groups in Afghanistan/Pakistan. One Monday Group A is opposing Group B; on Tuesday Group A agrees to stand by while Group B fights Group C; and on Wednesday, Groups A and B join together for an attack on Group D. Anyway, the incoming president will also continue the Awakenings program. In other words, the mew president will follow exactly the same policies as the old. Some change. As for Iraq If new President Obama tells Pentagon to withdraw troops rapidly, Pentagon will say logistics imperatives make that impossible. They will also tell Mr. Obama: do you want to be the prez who loses Iraq after your predecessor won it? We need more time to ensure the Iraqis are stable, he will be told. So what will Mr. Obama do? Disregard his military commanders and accept the mayhem and the blame that is going to come no matter how fast or how slowly America withdraws? We don't think so. The thing is, whatever Mr. Bush wanted, the Iraqis have set their own deadline: US troops out of cities in 2009, preferably by June; US brigades withdraw in a steady stream 2009-11; a strong residual force of trainers, specialists, and possibly some combat troops remains, but however long it remains, the Iraqis will determine duration and force composition. Mr. Bush could have won a 3rd term for all the Iraqis care, they want America O-U-T, and his policy would have been the exact same as what Obama will be forced into. No change here. We are not claiming any prescience here even as we say "we told you there would be no change in national security policy." The thing is, a lot of Americans are an extremely silly lot when it comes to logical thinking, and they've been going on and on about "Bush's War". But it isn't Bush's War, its America's War. People - and especially foreigners - think of the US president as an all-powerful overlord. But Bush could not have continued this war had the power elite, which includes the press and Congress, basically not agreed with him. Everyone was angry when the Bush strategy was failing. But you see, ultimately it worked. If Obama turns around and tries for a unilateral, rapid withdrawal, he will be stymied at every turn. everyone knows when the US withdraws, there will be another civil war in Iraq. But this time, something that was going to happen anyway, no matter who the US prez, will be blamed on Obama's "hasty withdrawal". So, come on folks. Obama is a savvy character. He's not going to take the blame. He's going to continue Bush's policy, and as the US is forced into withdrawals, and trouble starts, he'll say: "I told them not to be hasty, but what can I do, they told us to leave." This is 100% ditto what McCain would have said had he been elected. You want change in foreign policy? Our suggestion is: "Look in your couch. That's all the change you're going to get." 0230 GMT November 11, 2008 Congo Reports of a 6-hour gunbattle between Congo Army and rebels in South Kivu, west of Goma. Goma lies at the southern boundary of North Kivu, so you can have a battle west of Goma but still be in South, not North Kivu. Rebel leader says he will fight African peacekeepers if sent. Southern Africa group says it will send military advisors immediately to Congo, and troops "if and when" neccessary. I say, old boy: if they're not required now, when will they be required? When the show is over? Angola says it does not have troops in North Kivu, but "may" have them in a few days. US Government Gives Away More Of Your Money US Government gave AIG, the world's biggest reinsurer, $143-billion in two bailouts. That wasn't enough, we are told, so USG will give another $150-billion, or ~$300-billion to one corporations. That same amount of money would give 10-million unemployed workers $1500/month for 12 months - and this money would be spent as given, talk about stimulus; plus pay training stipends of $1500/month to ~6.7-million workers displaced into less-than-survival wage jobs by the wholesale export of US jobs to China, so they could acquire new skills. Just a thought. Is The Treasury Allowed To Mandate Tax Breaks? Treasury slipped in $140-billion of tax breaks for the banks when it did that bailout. That some is not counted anywhere, because a break against future profit. But is the Treasury allowed to give tax breaks? Many people think not: that is Congress's job. Nothing to worry about folks: just the usual looting and rapine going on in Washington. Robbing from the poor and giving to the rich is what we call it. President-Elect Obama Says He will Cut Taxes For Middle Class as a matter of priority. Indeed, he urges Mr. Bush to pass this tax cut before the latter leaves office. Okay, folks, by all means cut taxes. Reader Fly Mike has been arguing in a dozen e-mails that American individuals are way overtaxed when you add up all taxes at all levels. When your editor looks at his $2000 pay raise for seniority reduced to $500 actual cash in hand after deductions, he becomes receptive to Fly Mike's argument. After all, that's 75% taxed away, and the editor is only somewhat above the US median household income (~27-28%). The problem is, if you're cut taxes without adding to the crazy deficit, you have to cut spending. So: Professor Obama, will you kindly tell us what spending you propose to cut? As far as we can tell, neither Republicans nor Democrats have shown fiscal restraint, and Mr. Obama's promises mean major new spending. Now, cutting taxes while increasing spending, as Mr. Bush did, is voodoo economics. So is Mr. Obama going to start his term by following in the same footsteps? Some change. 0230 GMT November 10, 2008 Russian Submarine In Accident Is Under India Lease Hindu of India and Christian Science Monitor of US say the Akula II-class attack submarine, Nerpa, which had a serious underway accident, is under completion for Indian Navy service as INS Chakra for a 10-year lease. The same name was used for India's first SSN, a Charlie I-class boat (K-43) leased in the 1988-91 for training. Construction of K-152 was halted on the collapse of the USSR, and renewed when the Indians agreed to pay for completion. www.informationdissemination.blogspot.com  says trials began on June 11, 2008, at  Komsomolsk-on-Amur The 12,000-ton boat was on trials off Vladivostok when its fire-suppression went off accidentally. This particular system is supposed to be triggered only when a compartment is engulfed in flame, because the chemical instantly kills unprotected personnel. Russia says 208 persons were on board, including 81 naval personnel; the rest appear to be dockworkers. It is unclear to us if any Indian Navy personnel were on board. There are reports that an Indian Navy crew arrived in early November to begin training. Russia says the reactor compartment is undamaged. 22 were killed and ~20 injured. The CSM quotes experts as saying the shipyard has built just 4 boats in 15 years and suggests K-152 is a patchwork job because you cannot keep skilled technicians idle for years at a time. The suggestion, while not explicitly stated, is the K-152 construction  is not up to snuff. The Charlie I was originally supposed to be one of three SSNs for Indian Navy's lease but only one arrived. Editor recalls the two other boats had already been named by the Navy. While he never worked on the story, it appears the Indian Navy was basically quite aghast at the boat's quality, including widespread radiation leaks. According to rumors current at the time, the Russians would not let the Indians into the reactor room and nor did they provide details/drawings because this would be in violation of the NPT. Unless the Indians have supplied the reactor to the Russians - and there is absolutely no evidence this is the case - it's difficult to see how the Russians are going to get around the NPT. We suspect they have indeed gotten around, because otherwise there would by now have been tons of stories in the world media about Russia's violation of the NPT. Yet neither IAEA nor the other nuclear powers appear to have complained. The Monterey Institute, a non-proliferation think tank in the US says the NPT has an exception for nuclear naval propulsion systems. We are no experts on the NPT and do not know if Monterey's assumption is factual, and if it is, what is the procedure to obtain an exemption. India began work on an SSN approximately 30+ years ago. Rumor has it the project never reached maturation because of reactor issues. But is this still the case? The Indians have been pretty good about preventing American intelligence infiltration into the nuclear weapons' programs, so few may know the status of the reactor. While in India the Editor recalls being told that actually the reactor was not the sole problem. Hull issues, particularly welding, and systems issues - integrating everything into one working package - were also involved. Recently the Indian CNO appeared to have said that India's own nuclear submarine would start trials in 2010. 0230 GMT November 9, 2008 Congo There are reports (AFP) of Zimbabwe troops joining the Angolans in North Kivu. The Zim troops were seen as part of a 50 man unit conducting reconnaissance in the Goma area. If the report is correct our guess is that the government intends to launch a counteroffensive. Government troops appear to have moved 1-kilometer into rebel-held territory north of Goma. There are reports that the rebels are withdrawing from forward position in the area. Contrary to accusations from all sides, the small UN contingent did do what it could to help refugees in Kiwanji. This story is from MONUC. http://www.monuc.org/News.aspx?newsID=18921 There are 135 UN troops in Kiwanji in all. UN Peacekeepers from the Kiwanja base continued their patrols between the 4th and 6th November despite fighting involving heavy weapons between the combatants. MONUC patrols rescued 15 UN staff and other humanitarian workers trapped in the fighting, as well as trying to find out what happened to missing civilians, some of whom had been taken hostage. When they tried to approach Mayi Mayi troops to try and mediate, the peacekeepers were fired on and had to open fire in self-defence. The exchanges of heavy weapons fire between the belligerents forced MONUC troops to withdraw to their base, where they positioned their armoured vehicles to protect people displaced by the fighting who had gathered around their position. The UN base was caught in the cross fire and took some direct hits. The peackeepers have carried on patrolling in Kiwanja and its vicinity. Since November 5th, 10 patrols a day have been carried out made up of between 15 and 20 Blue Helmets. Three patrols have also been carried out in Mabenga, Ruwindi, and Kinyandoni. We forgot to appreciate, in our analyses, that the contingent also has to protect UN civilians, aid workers, and other foreigners. But with the canard launched that the UN troops did nothing to help civilians, it's going to be difficult to change people's perceptions. The UN is clearly to blame in not getting its side of the story out in timely fashion, and in letting the civilian head of MONUC criticize the troops. What an ass this man must be: doesn't have a clue as to what his own troops are doing and is ready to run them down at first opportunity. A further complication in the stories about civilians killed by the rebels and pro-government militia is that MONUC, after sending an fact-finding mission to the area, has located only 26 graves and further has learned that combatants were fighting in civilian clothes. So much for gender equality Report in London Times: "Women who are better educated than their spouses are ten times more likely to separate or to get divorced than women who are equally or less educated than their husbands, an Australian National University report concludes." Hate to imagine the furor if a study found men divorcing their less-educated wives at 10 times the "normal" rate Russia comes through on schedule Gotta love the Rooskies. The day after Obama wins the US presidential election, the Russians announce they will base their latest tactical surface-to-surface missiles in Kalingrad, off Poland, in response to the US-Poland agreement on stationing an ABM battery in Poland. Now, Poland only agreed because of the Georgia war. The Euros are such a scarridy-wabbit bunch most of them actually believe American defensive  missiles are a greater threat than Russian offensive missiles. It was thoughtful of Russia to help the US by telling Poland and Ukraine they were next on Moscow's hit list after Georgia. Now the Russians are further helping the US because the Russian missile move has scared the East Europeans witless. Oddly, the west Europeans are perfectly unalarmed. Just the Russians being their usual bad boy self, is the consensus. BTW, rumor has it Prime Minister Putin will return as President Putin Episode II as early as 2009. The constitutional term of the Russian president is expected to be changed from 4- to 6-years, so Putin Episode II will continue to enthrall till 2015. why don't the Russians just get it over with and declare the man the new Czar of Russia? 0230 GMT November 8, 2008 Now UN Is Suffering Hallucinations How else to explain this development? Yesterday a UN civilian official and a Uruguayan officer told the press that Angolan troops arrived in Goma four days ago and are participating in fighting with the Rwanda-supported rebels. Clashes are reported outside Goma, and in Kiwanja, north of Goma in areas that were overrun by the rebels earlier. The head of UN peacekeeping in New York says no Angolans have been sighted. " He said some people may have mistaken Congolese government troops who had trained in Angola, and who therefore spoke Portuguese, for Angolan troops." (Quote from Associated Press.) Fascinating. Congo troops trained in Angola must be speaking Portuguese. So presumably the Congo troops trained by the Belgians are speaking Flemish, and those trained by the French are speaking French. It logically follows that Iraqis trained by the US have taken to speaking English in their forward areas, the Iraqis trained by the Australians are now speaking Ozzie, those trained by the Poles speak fluent Polish, and those trained by the Mongolians have given up Arabic in favor of Mongolian. In Afghanistan people are now speaking German - these would be the civilians trained by the Germans. It's a miracle! Praise the Lord! His wonders never cease! If this isn't weird enough, the political head of the UN mission to the Congo allows that the peacekeepers should have protected civilians murdered by the pro-government militia and the rebels in Kiwanja. Then he notes that the UN has one peacekeeper per 1000 civilians in North and South Kivu provinces and the UN shouldn't be made a scapegoat. Incidentally, one police officer per 1000 Americans would leave the population grievously vulnerable to plain criminals, to say nothing of the situation that would arise is thousands of armed rebels are running around. Not to be left out, the AU says the UN peacekeepers did nothing to help refugees at Kiwanji and Rutshuru, a refrain echoed by the President of the Congo, whose troops fled before the rebel offensive and then thoughtfully looted, raped, and murdered their own people as they ran. The peacekeepers gave the refugees neither water nor food, say these critics. Well, there are 300 peacekeepers at both these towns combined. There are at least 10,000 refugees at the first town and possibly several tens of thousands at the second. An aid convoy did make it through to the second town, but no aid has reached the first, as far as we know. So the peacekeepers are helping the aid groups distribute food etc. here. We'd love for someone in the aid groups, UN HQ, Congo government, AU etc to explain how 100 troops at Kiwanji are supposed to provide food and water to 10,000 refugees when all they have is their own rations. We've already asked for an explanation of how those 100 men are supposed to set up a camp inside their wire for 10,000 refugees, and guard the refugees, and protect themselves from the rebels and the pro-government militias. Naturally we haven't received a reply. UN Leadership Is a Confederacy of Dunces The political types who run UN peacekeeping operations at HQ in New York and overseas are complete buffoons who wouldn't know the front of a rifle from the back. The generals who command these operations are, well, generals, but they are expected to meld thousands of troops from several nations into an effective force, which is a political and not a military job.  Meanwhile, the national governments are breathing down the necks of their contingent commanders. The troops are seldom if ever given a clear mandate, and in many case are not allowed to return fire even when they are under fire. We were shocked to learn that though the UN mission to the Congo is a Chapter 7 operation, the troops are NOT permitted to fire on local forces/rebels to protect civilians. You see, the UN went in to disarm militias subsequent to the end of the civil war. They are authorized to fire on militias who resist disarmament. They are permitted in limited fashion to protect themselves. And that's it. We are now at least four weeks into the start of this particular nasty. What has the head office in New York and the political chief of the Congo mission done to restore the tactical integrity of units that are broken up into penny packets all over the country? Zip, Zilch, Nada. They say if they withdraw troops from one sector to reinforce another, there will be trouble in the vacated sector. Yes, surely there will. At which point the leaders need to do one of two things. Either they redeploy, making quite clear that the situation has changed and all areas cannot be protected. Or they clearly state that the troops cannot perform the role envisaged for them, and order the troops to abandon forward positions and concentrate at designated points where refugee camps can be set up and where the refugees can be protected. For example, perhaps 50,000 or more refugees are in Goma. There are also 1000 UN troops building up to 1500. This is not a large force, but it is a credible deterrent to the Rwanda-supported rebels, and the UN has firmly said the rebels are not to enter Goma - and they haven't. Instead the rebels are overrunning places where the UN garrisons are just far too small to do more than protect themselves. And the Indian government, whose troops are responsible for North Kivu, has left its men to look after themselves. At the very minimum the Indian government should either have sent reinforcements - and as we said yesterday the Indians can put two battalions in North Kivu in 72 hours, or it should have told New York it will have to allow the troops to withdraw to focal points where at least they can protect themselves. Luckily for everyone, both the rebels and the government troops and militia are rabble. They have a healthy fear of the UN troops in the area, having encountered them on many occasions, and suffered defeat each time. So the combatants are basically leaving UN troops alone. But surely Delhi is losing sleep over the idea that so many of its troops are spread out in penny-packets. Not a bit. You have the UN confederacy of dunces, and you have the Indian government, who far from unjamming its elbow from its rear end, does not even know where is its elbow or rear end. Pathetic bunch of morons, all. Note We'd expected the Angolans would provide security for the Congo government in Kinshasa, permitting two brigades from the President's special units to redeploy to North Kivu. Now, apparently some Congo troops have reinforced North Kivu, but Angolans have gone to the front. To us this suggests that (a) Congo government realizes it is about to lose North Kivu followed by South Kivu, and needs real fighters to stabilize the situation - hint: by real fighters we do not mean the Congo Army; and/or (b) that the rebels offensive has brought out the long knives in Kinshasa and other parts of the Congo, and erstwhile supporters of the president are getting ideas about a new president. So maybe the president cannot afford to send a meaningful reinforcement to North Kivu. Naturally we have very little information - almost nil - of our own, and are reduced to reading between the lines. The editor thought of taking five days leave from school, sandwiched between two weekends and visiting. First, there is the problem of money: aside from tickets when you are in a war zone you need several hundred dollars a day for expenses. Second is the problem that since the Editor never travels without his four pillows, favorite blankie, bunny slippers and his four teddy bears, there will be no space to carry anything else. Third, the Indians would be the logical hosts to the Editor, but when he sent out a discreet enquiry into whether the politicals would give him permission (there is no problem with the Army), the noise on the telephone was quite reminiscent of a braying donkey with a serious hernia and even more serious case of hemorrhoids trying to fart the national anthem in the key of B sharp, three octaves above Middle C. 0230 GMT November 7, 2008 More Trouble In Congo as rebels seize a third town despite their avowal of a ceasefire. Below is a BBC graphic of the North Kivu region. The rebels advanced west of the Rwanda border taking Rumangabo and advancing to about 10-km outside Goma. we are unsure when  the other towns in the east fell, but earlier this week the rebels took Kiwanja. Now the rebels have taken Nyamzale to the north of Goma; UN says Kikuku, NE of Nyanzale, has also fallen to the rebels UN is investigating reports that the rebels killed civilians. UN soldiers are being criticized for not doing more than conducting limited patrols; refugees criticize the UN garrison for not allowing them to enter the garrison where they could be protected. Nice job everyone, we don't expect the poor refugees read anything, but the aid agencies who are criticizing the garrison need to under it grandly consists of an understrength Indian rifle company. How much patrolling do the aid agencies want, when sending out more than a platoon will seriously compromise the defense of the garrison. There are several hundred rebels and more Mai Mai militia, both of whom have been butting heads with the Indians, though no focused attack as such has taken place. Similarly, has anyone heard the word perimeter? How is one rifle company supposed to protect its own positions as well as several thousand refugees? Today a peace conference is underway in Nairobi; the UN and the west insist there has to be a negotiated peace. Well, the President of the Congo says he has nothing to negotiate, and Rwanda/rebels seem more intent on capturing the  mineral-rich area to exploit than on talking peace. So good luck, everyone. And yes, the UN Secretary General request for more troops is the same as was requested in October: 2 infantry battalions, 2 SF companies, 2 police companies, and 18 helicopters. As we mentioned yesterday, UN Security Council may start discussions on the request late November. A Question Of Morality Now look people. If the US/West takes the position that it does not want to intervene hither, thither, and yonder, we completely understand. Tough 'taters, Africa, you're on your own. But US/West has been busily intervening hither, thither, and yonder. First NATO bombed the stuffing out of Serbia because it was killing people in its breakaway regions, and then 60,000 NATO soldiers went in to confine Serbia. Then US/NATO went off to Afghanistan, which they have occupied for seven years now. Afghanistan's crime? Didn't hand over Bin Laden. Then US/NATO took Iraq apart, on an allegation WMDs existed, and occupied that country. Oh yes, Saddam was a horrible dictator, executed 300,000 of his people etc etc. Anyone looked at the scale of the human tragedy in the Congo? Saddam was a small-time grifter compared to the Central African warlords. The whole thing boils down to something really simple. Can the US/NATO explain why the lives of civilians in the Balkans, Afghanistan, Iraq are worth so much more than African lives? Please don't rush your answer, take plenty of time because you all need to understand you all are Hypocrites on a Grand Scale. Now, of course, US/NATO can say, "all very well, but why aren't the Africans doing more? Why aren't the South Asians doing more? Why aren't the Arab states doing more? If non-white don't care for the lives of other non-whites, why should we? True, true. Except for one problem. US/West has never ceased telling the rest of us how superior they are in every way, in everything to do with morality and duty and caring for the unfortunate and so on and so forth. Africa is a terribly weak, really poor, and astonishingly divided continent. It cannot do more than the limited peacekeeping it already is doing. As for the Arabs, at least they don't moralize. They will tell you to your face they want to have nothing to do with "those black savages". As for the South Asians, we have already criticized the Indians for not stepping to the plate in this hour of Central Africa's need, and we will criticize it again. If India wants to be a world power, it had jolly well start taking the responsibilities of a world power. India could get all the reinforcements UN is requesting to DRC in two weeks. This may sound incredible to those unfamiliar with India, but the Indians have the ability to send two battalions anywhere in the Indian Ocean region within 72-hours, entirely on their own, and they could send a mechanized brigade after that in three weeks if the US would help with the airlift. No use talking to the Americans/West about karma: their sole thing is money, sex, and self-indulgence. But the Indians of all people should seriously think about the karmic consequences of not helping their fellow humans when they have all the resources needed. And not to worry about the money in any case. If the Indians accepted responsibility for the Congo, the rich nations would be throwing money at the Indians - blood money to assuage their guilt, but money is money. 0230 GMT November 6, 2008 Grumf Grouch Grunt So what is President Obama supposed to do, wave a magic wand and suddenly Washington straightens out and the Taliban go home and the Iraqis start hugging and kissing each other and the economy zooms to new heights? Obviously none of this is going to happen. Obviously nothing has changed in Washington. Obviously when President Obama runs up against the special interests he's going to fold. Or perhaps you though the special interests were only Republican? President Obama kept talking about Change. Be good for him to remember: the more things change, the more they remain the same. Hold it, you're saying, he's not President Obama yet. True, but the other person is of no relevance whatsoever anymore. Its what Obama says and wants that will be discussed, not what the other person says or wants. US To Withdraw One Iraq Brigade Ahead Of Schedule US had earlier planned to drop to 14 brigades by starting January 2009, but now a brigade of the 101sdt Division currently deployed in Baghdad is start going home without replacement. For those of us who want to see the US drawn down faster, and send the troops to other theatres, it doesn't matter what President Obama said before his election. Once he takes over, he will NOT go against the military's advice. There will be no pullout by 2009 and similar nonsense. Diplomatically, President Karzai Should Have Waited before calling on President-elect Obama for the US to stop killing civilians by accident in Afghanistan. Karzai's move is tasteless, and a sad attempt to boost his own cred, which is down to zero and heading to negative territory. One of the first things President Obama may have to tackle is who is to replace Karzai. Congo: Bad News and Good Bad news is that the rebels have overrun a town 75 km from Goma, which is in the territory of another ethnic group, the Mai Mai, after two days of fighting. Refugees in the town have been forced to flee.  This lot is allied with Hutus, many of whom live in the Congo and many of whom were pushed out of Rwanda when the Tutsis defeated the Hutus in 1994-95 after the Hutus launched their genocide against the Tutsis and moderate Hutus. The Mai Mai say they will resume fighting against the rebels. (We realize you are confused at all these tribal groupings and alliances, but that's the nature of the region.) The rebels, who are Congo Tutsis, say they cleared the town because a Hutu militia there attacked them. The rebels used artillery in the fighting, which they say comes from Congo Army soldiers who fled. Pardon us while we titter. This is Rwanda Army artillery, not the rebels. Just as an example of how dispersed UN forces are, there is a UN contingent in this town. It numbers - gasp! - 100 soldiers, who are Indian and Uruguayan. When you start deploying platoons and mixing up troops in rifle companies, you are stretched very, very thin. These troops were caught in cross-firing, and returned fire to protect themselves. Further bad news is the rebels have decided to handle the problem of refugees now behind their front lines in a simple way: they are burning down refugee camps and forcing the people to flee into the jungle. Good news is UN has decided that it must draw a line, and has said it will fight if the rebels advance on Goma. To us this indicates the reorganization/redeployment of UN troops we'd said is neccessary, is underway. A problem for the UN is firepower. The UN came in to disarm militias and look after civilians. These are not tasks for which you deploy tanks, artillery, and fighter aircraft. UN doctrine moreover, frowns on displays of heavy weaponry as the world body does not want to appear as if it is occupying the country it is sent to help. The Indians are equipped with BMP-2s, and the Pakistanis have M-113s. We're not sure what some of the other mechanized units have, but most likely it will be wheeled APCs, which are armored taxis and not fighting vehicles. The Indians have a heavy attack helicopter unit with Mi-35s deployed, but if fighting erupts, the Rwandans are likely to supply their allies with shoulder-fired SAMs. This will change things; besides, as far as we know, the gunship unit has 8 helicopters, which is not a whole lot. If it was just the rebels, this lack of firepower will not matter. But with the Rwandans now involved, things become complex. India and Pakistan have very large numbers of heavy mortar batteries/regiments, usually 120mm; but whether they will reinforce the Congo is something yet to be seen. Similarly, the Indians could send jet fighters, but will they? In the very first Congo War, that of the secessions after independence, India sent Canberra bombers for the UN force and they were used on several occasions. Reinforcements The head of the UN mission had asked the UN Security Council for two infantry battalions, a SF unit, and a police unit at the end of October, but this was not okayed. The UN Secretary General has now asked for 3000 troops. We do not know if this is the size reinforcement requested last week. We'd thought that Goma would get an extra battalion as reinforcements, but apparently it will get only about 500 more troops as withdrawing other troops in North Kivu will leave refugees with no protection. So you'd think there would be some urgency at UN HQ? Not at all. The Security Council will not even meet to discuss the matter till end-November. By the way Ituri in the north, in another UN sector, is also tense because of clashes between former rebels refusing to be disarmed and the Congo Army. UN helped Congo army send a reinforcement battalion to Ituri last month. 0230 GMT November 5, 2008 The Canadians in Afghanistan LTC Brian A. Reid (Retired) Letter I am a retired Lieutenant Colonel in the Royal Canadian Artillery who dabbles in military history. Your analysis of the story in the Washington Post caused me to query sources familiar with the operation.  My investigation revealed: Part I: General comments The aim was not to destroy the compound and kill the enemy. If it had been, there were a lot of other ways to do it. The aim was to seize and hold it, perhaps so that the materiel and whatever else was there could be exploited by intelligence. Perhaps this also explains why it was not hit by artillery and air when the advance was detected. Contrary to the story, the compound was not that close to our own positions. Thus any small force that attempted to penetrate would have been vulnerable to attack from an enemy concentration. Added: To reach the point where the company set out on its march required a vehicle move of "dozens of kilometres." Despite the criticisms a major Canadian force was able to approach undetected close enough to the objective so that the Taliban were forced to abandon it in some haste and disorder. The target audience was not the western public. It was the local population who awoke to find a large number of NATO forces in their backyard with the Taliban scurrying away for their lives. That we were able to locate and monitor an IED making site for an undetermined but not inconsiderable period indicates that our intelligence system is working. The mission was accomplished without causing any civilian casualties and with no undue damage to the infrastructure, while impressing the locals with the ability of NATO to suddenly appear in their backyard at will. Chalk one up for hearts and minds. Part II A more detailed critique This operation was very much an int [int is Canada speak for intel] driven op. Had the Editor "jumped" at every bit of int out there, he would be bouncing aimlessly all over the Arghandab (as anyone who's been here knows, threat warnings are more common than KAF-ites at KAF!). [KAF-ites are those who spend their tour inside the wire at Kandahar Air Field or KAF]. On receipt of intelligence, the Canadians developed a plan and it was accepted for further definition. At no time was "Destroy" a mission verb in this. We weren't going after the bad guys so much as we were going after their toys. Killing these guys is the easy part: we want the toys (and bombs and stuff like that). After all, it's all about logistics. If the Indians were to rush into compounds over here helter skelter, not only would "the major" be killed, but his entire platoon as well. There were not three companies, there were two . The Canadians probably would have been better off with one, but hind sight is always 20/20: just a point to learn for next time. In the end, surprise was total, locals emerged with wide eyes to see NATO walking by where they hadn't been for some time. And the best part is this: the toys taken used to explode on Highway 1 about once a day: there have been none since the end of the operation. I know that they will reconstitute, but again, war is logistics, and since they are reconstituting, and since we will continue to go after their toys, they can run away all they want (they seem to run from big heavy armour combat teams). Run, but we will continue to win the info ops messaging ("Look at the Taliban flee in fear of us. They are cowards") and they will leave their toys (and in this case, they left much of their clothing and blankets as well: it's getting cold at night. Not "Canada" cold, but single digits). So, the Editor as armchair quarterback can call all the Monday morning plays he wishes, but in the end, all Johnny Canucks came out without a scratch, more than one Taliban failed to live to see noon, and more importantly, we nabbed some of their toys. I know that they have more, and I know that the war isn't over, but baby steps...baby steps. Last, the air, aviation and artillery did do some damage here, mostly to Taliban. There was a minor Taliban "counterattack", which failed miserably. Again, our lads all made it back with nary a scratch. Fortune smiled for us that day. I hope this aids in your understanding of the matter. As we all know, don't believe everything you read in the paper. Editor Responds First, your Editor does not occupy an armchair, a wheel-chair is more suited to his vast age. As for Monday football/quarterbacks, he had no idea anyone in Canada had heard of this quaint American folly! The phrase Monday quarterback, of course come from the days when the games were on Sunday. And the Editor does not watch TV. Second, we were delighted to hear from someone with  knowledge of the operation. This is the kind of letter we would love to see more of. Generally, our readers tend to be shy types, who never write. Perhaps they fall into a coma at the Editor's ramblings. Third, we were shocked, shocked, that the Washington Post actually got most things right in their article. We owe the paper an apology. There was no mention of artillery, but of course we should have figured out ourselves there was an artillery battery, in which case yes, two companies would be involved and not three. Nonetheless, this detailed and very interesting letter does not change the point we were trying to make the other day. It has to be clearly understood that we were not criticizing the Canadians. Our point was about NATO CI operations generally. We love the Canadians, they embody American virtues without American vices. They are relaxed. Of course, given the size of their country and the temperature, they have to be relaxed to survive. We do have some experience of Canadian winters and can confirm they are not for the faint of heart. This war is now with Year 7 almost done. No one should be talking of baby steps. In World War I, we venture it took the Canadians about 4 months to learn their job. In World War II, it took them even less, that one fiasco at Dieppe was all they needed. BTW, someone wrote in and stated the obvious, that the Editor shouldn't be talking about this particularly Canadian raid as requiring as much planning as Dieppe. Yes, we are guilty. If Dieppe had been planned as well as this raid, things would have been different. Our point is simply that in CI you cannot take days and weeks to plan and mount operations. The race is to the swift etc. The reason our hypothetical Indian major and his 30 men would have succeeded is that they are able to react very rapidly to intelligence. We have not had the opportunity to analyze what percentage of Indian raids turn up dry, but we venture it is a lot less than the US/NATO for the simple reason there is not a huge buzzing of bees about the hive before an operation goes in and that much less opportunity for an operation to leak. (Cant call 99% of the raids Indian stage as "operations", but still.) Yes, it is probably unfair to compare Kashmir to Afghanistan insofar as Kashmir is in India, the army is dealing with its own people, and its intelligence is far better. But it didn't get far better on its own: the Indian police, paramilitary, army, other intelligence agencies worked very hard at the job before it go good enough. The real advantage the Indians have is they are dealing with South Asians, whereas US/NATO in Afghanistan are all Anglos dealing with South Asians. As for jumping all around a province, so what? We have mentioned at the height of the Kashmir insurgency the Indian Army was putting out one thousand patrols a night. When you are working in vehicle inaccessible terrain - and all of Kashmir outside the Valley is that way, you have no choice but to walk, and walk, and walk. 99% of the patrols encountered no one. Of the 1% that did and exchanged shots, perhaps 2-3 infiltrators were killed or captured - total. But the point is that the enemy could not walk anywhere without knowing he would be lucky if he did NOT meet a patrol. We are happy the villagers finally saw some NATO troops. And that to us shows just how wrong is the US/NATO strategy. To be clear: we have been possibly the severest critics of Indian  operations in Kashmir. For nigh on 17 years there was not even a proper border fence because Delhi could not be bothered to build one, and the security forces could not convince Delhi to move. We were not extolling Indian strategy in Kashmir We were talking of something quite different. First, for CI, you need to travel as light as the insurgent - the proverbial bag of rice and bag of bullets that was the day's standard issue form a rifleman campaigning in the NWFP during the days or the Raj. You cannot mount a carefully planned combined arms operations of such size just to go get a bomb-making house. How many of these ops can your battalion do in a month? You need to be out all the time, all the time, all the time so that the locals can see you and sp that the enemy does not own the place. According to our sources in Afghanistan, at night the insurgents and anti-government forces own 80% of the country and this is climbing.  Second, If you are going to go to war with your first, second, and third goal being force protection, you need to stay home. By western standards, the Indian Army is amazingly reckless. But the army knows it is (or was) at war, and it knows it has to expect casualties. No operation is planned on the basis of minimizing casualties! You want to live forever, take up knitting! Again, please lets be clear. We are NOT saying the Canadians are fighting this way because they, as soldiers, WANT to fight this way. Theirs is a professional volunteer army just as is the Indian. They are fighting this way because their government is more concerned about casualties than about winning. Now here we have Canada, a nation of - what? - 30-million people with a GDP of over US$1-trillion. Their contribution to Afghanistan is - what? A reinforced mechanized infantry battlegroup and perhaps 1000 trainers, HQ, and base troops. The Canadian people refuse to support a defense establishment bigger than one that can put a battalion group overseas and a battalion group available on standby in their own country. Whose fault is this? Not that of the Canadian soldiers. It's their government's fault. In 1940 Canada had less than 12-million people. It fielded six army divisions, a very large number of air squadrons we are told one of six RAF Bomber Command groups were Canadian, and if we recall right, the third largest navy in the world. 1.1-million Canadians were mobilized. Okay, so this is not World War II. But isnt that just the point we've made again and again over the years since 2001? The reason the GWOT is going nowhere is it isn't a Global War. It's a Global Goof Off by a western civilization that doesn't believe anything is worth fighting for anymore. Afghanistan is 150% the size of Iraq; more important, 95% is inaccessible. What does the Canadian Government expect its contingent to achieve, aside from sucking up to the Americans, and honestly and truly, as the Canadians have learned over and over again, trying to keep the Americans happy, leave alone grateful, is like trying to keep your hyper-active, hyper-critical, and hyper-demanding wife happy: it cannot be done. Every single country in Afghanistan is making the same mistake: trying to fight a war on the cheap, and the odd thing is, in terms of money it works out not be cheap at all. Obviously, if you're going to conduct ops the way US/NATO does. We also want to make perfectly clear that we know - as well as any Canadian - every time five Canadians die in Afghanistan, the country wants its troops back home. How is that the fault of the Canadian soldiers? Obviously it is not. So: our article was not to criticize the people on the ground. They are doing the best they can, as is also true of the American soldiers, under completely absurd conditions imposed by their government. It was to tell the Canadian people and government: you obviously cannot hack it, bring your boys home instead of setting them up to fail and then whining and moaning and weeping. Ditto rest of NATO. Especially ditto the Americans. We urge LTC Reid and others to keep writing to us. The US media is not much good at covering anything non-American and it was refreshing both that the WashPo did the piece and that we got a genuine, real, authentic Canadian to write. Darn that Canadian politeness, though. It's very hard to combat. 0230 GMT November 5, 2008 Congo With the world's concern slowly turning to the situation in NE Congo, there is the usual misunderstanding/misconception regarding the UN missions role, with just about everyone crying the UN is not doing its job. A few facts may help. The UN mission has 16,500 troops and operates under Chapter 7. This means it is permitted to use all reasonable force to protect itself and civilians. Since what the world sees is a stream of desperate refugees fleeing, the easy assumption is that UN is not doing what it should. 16,500 troops sounds like a lot except for a small problem. Congo is the area of Western Europe. UN has divided it into five  sectors. Sectors 1 - west, and 4 - south Congo, take up 4 battalions. Sector 2, Orientale Province in the north, takes up four battalions. Sector 6 takes up two battalions and borders northwest Uganda. Sectors 5  covers North and South Kivu provinces and has a brigade HQ for each. South Kivu is protected by three Pakistani battalions. North Kivu, where the current trouble is underway, has five battalions: 3 Indian, 1 South African, and 1 Uruguayan. When we say "battalion", please don't think of a nicely ordered battalion as one unit. Think companies and platoons scattered all over the place. None of the battalions are organized for anything except holding ground, which is the protecting civilians part, and the sub-units are widely dispersed. Now lets look in more detail at North Kivu with its five battalions. The South Africans, an under-strength battalion worth, and about 5-6 Indian rifle and mechanized companies are deployed in the north and the west of this province. What you have left, then, is about 10 rifle and mechanized companies of Indians and Uruguayans under three battalion HQs. In other words, you have less than 3,000 troops available plus support units, an engineer squadron, and an attack helicopter unit. A third of this force is in Goma, a third is deployed in scattered outposts. You have perhaps 3-4 companies left and some of these troops have to be utilized for force protection. So if at all there is a reserve, it will be at best two companies. These 3000 troops are trying to protect (a) somewhere between 300,000 and 500,000 refugees; (b) the Rwanda border, where approximately two Rwandan brigades - 6000+ troops are deployed helping the rebels, and (c) possibly 5,000 rebels. Approximately 7-8 battalions of Congo Army troops have quit the area, we are unsure of where they were deployed, but it doesn't matter, since they are simply gone. Now that you know the situation, you can see the UN can do BFA, to use the acronyms for a well-known expletive. Hint: the B stands for Bloody, and the A stands for A. It doesn't matter what the UN mission says, it doesn't matter what they are required to do under Chapter 7, the simple point is they can protect only a couple of hundred thousands refugees at the very best, and that too by scattering their limited resources in platoons. Now here you are, in a platoon, say 30 men. And there are the rebels, say 300. And you have, say, 5-10,000 refugees. And everyone is mixed up: you, the civilians, and the refugees. You open fire in any directions, the first thing you're going to kill is the civilians. You don't believe us? Take a gander at the media pictures of the refugee streams and camps. You can certainly order the Indians to do a "last round, last man" routine - that is something the Indian Army does very well, but few armies do and certainly not the US Army, with the very honorable exception of the Rangers at Mogadishu, 1993. The results would be: all the Indians would become casualties, 100 or so rebels would be dead, and you'd have a couple of thousand civilians massacred by the rebels in the process. So what will you have gained. Certainly you can order the Indians, who are very experienced in large scale operations, to concentrate their three battalions for an offensive against the rebels. This would take a few days because everyone is scattered all over the place. It would take them a few more days to clear out the rebels. And then what? The rebels will flee intact to Rwanda, and they and the Rwandans - the latter openly this time - will invade the Congo again. Meanwhile, you've withdrawn all the outposts and most of the troops protecting refugee camps, so all those people are going to get killed. That is why it is not particularly helpful when the Washington Post says, as it did in an editorial yesterday, that the problem in Goma has arisen in part because of the incompetence of the UN troops, including the Indians. Coming from a newspaper of a country that refuses to attack without overinsuring to a degree of 10-1 this is a puzzling statement - until you remember this is, after all, the Washington Post. The same that the other day referred to a Canadian mechanized company battle group as a "division". We have not even yet talked of the political problems the UN faces in the Congo. These are far, far more complicated than the military problems, which are actually quite simple and boil down to a plain lack of troops. Yes, it is tremendously frustrating to watch what is happening to the poor civilians. But to say the UN is failing in its job is failing to understand what's going on. What we think will happen next As far as we know, Congo Army is moving troops from Kinshasa to the area. at best we expect two brigades will arrive. These are the best trained troops in the army, and part of four brigades or so that are by way of being the president's personal bodyguard. To replace these men, Congo has asked Angola to send troops. Now, with Rwanda already breaking the agreements that brought the war to an end, it may seem academic to question the Angolans reentering the country. But what you are going to get is the start of another all-Central African war. Last time 3- to 5-million civilians died, the heaviest loss of civilian lives since World War II. Meanwhile, the UN commander has been told to reorganize his men to get one battalion into Goma, and to prepare a second battalion. This means withdrawals from other areas, and the danger of trouble breaking out there - the UN is operating on four fronts. By the way, the new commander resigned within two months for "personal" reasons. More likely the reason is he took one look at the situation and the lack of resources, and said: "Oh no, New York is not going to pin the coming fiasco on me. With additional troops available in North Kivu, the UN will be able to ensure the rebels don't get past Goma. One reason they may have stopped outside is that last year, the UN troops were told to kick the rebels out, and they did, with the rebels losing several hundred killed. So a repeat of that is certainly possible. But as we said, the rebels flee to Rwanda, and after a while, the rebels/Rwandans attack. Then what? UN options are severely limited by the Rwandans. It is one think to arrive in the country after a peace agreement has been signed, and then start knocking heads together to get rebel groups disarmed. This is what the UN has been doing for the last several years. It is another to get in the middle of a war between Rwanda and Congo. No troop contributing nation wants to do that. And contrary to what WashPo might be tempted to think, it will be not because anyone is too scared to fight, but they did not sign onto a peacekeeping mission to fight a war. Why? Because no one's national interest is at stake. Just as the US has not sent troops to the Congo because no US purpose is served, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Tunisia, Benin etc etc etc will not keep their troops in the Congo. What about more troops and converting the mission to defense against foreign aggression - that is within the UN charter. That's fine, but that process has to begin at the UN Security Council. The US has about goodwill at the UN as, say, Libya. The ball will have to be carried by UK/France, as Russia/PRC have no interest in the area. So say the Security Council/General Assembly declared aggression has occurred, and call for troops to stop the aggression. Every single non-white country is going to start jeering: "We're not your slaves to fight your wars for you. You want more troops?  Then let the Americans, Germans, French, British, Italians send troops first and we'll follow." And you just know the answer to that: the countries above will suddenly decide that Congo is not, after all, that important. It really is just a bunch of black Africans killing another bunch. "We've done our best for Africa and can't do more." The end. 0230 GMT November 3, 2008 The Canadians in Afghanistan Yesterday's Washington Post had a very badly written story on a Canadian raid in Afghanistan, but the more we read, the more we shook our head in disbelief. To capture an insurgent compound some miles from a forward base in Kandahar, the Canadians used: 230 infantry, two companies, and a mechanized battlegroup of company size including tanks, and two helicopters. 420 troops were involved in all. The raid appears to have taken days - if not weeks - of careful planning. The article does not make it clear, but it looks like the last 3-4 miles were covered on foot because of concern that the approach road to the insurgent compound might be mined. The last two miles were covered in three hours to avoid alerting the insurgents. The Canadians reached their target at dawn. There was a firefight lasting a few minutes, the Taliban managed to escape, every last one, and indeed the compound was stuffed with material to make IEDs. The compound was blown up. No Canadian casualties; the lieutenant colonel commanding the operation was pleased at the outcome. It's possible the insurgents were alerted when a dog attacked some Canadian troops and they shot the dog Now lets suppose this was Kashmir and not Afghanistan. An Indian battalion receives intelligence of insurgents using a compound nearby. As soon as night falls, a major takes an infantry platoon and traveling light - on foot - reaches the compound in 3-4 hours. The platoon immediately sets up its attack.  Every effort is made to cover the last couple of hundred meters stealthily, but a dog attacks the troops on one flank. Shots are fired. What happens next is very simple. Since they are now discovered, the platoon charges the insurgent house. There is no question but that the major leads. If there is a small number of insurgents in the house - as there appear to have been in the Canadian case - the whole show is over very shortly. If any insurgents are seen to escape, a rifle section chases after them and does its best to bring down as many as possible. Time being of the essence, no one wastes time planning, calling battalion, or any of that nonsense. At some point the section heads back, usually if it is out of ammunition. Meanwhile, reinforcements may or may not come up from battalion. Everyone goes back to base to eat and to catch up on sleep. That's it: another night in Kashmir. Now, of course it isn't all that simple as we've made it out, but Indian company commanders have a great deal of latitude to display initiative. The Indians don't have 20, 30, 50 communications channels going all the way all the way to battalion, brigade, division, corps, and so on. So they don't waste time talking to anyone, beyond the company commander (the major) informing his CO. They don't waste time doing complex reconnaissances because in the time that takes, the enemy might depart. There are no helicopters, no attack aircraft circling overhead, no drones. The platoon may not even have night vision gear. They rely on their eyes and their ears. Though this is changing, India has been spending a lot of money on upgrading infantry battalion equipment. There is no artillery support; because of the need to move fast and light, no mortars will be tasked. The heaviest weapons available will be a couple of Carl Gustavs and an automatic grenade launcher or two. The Post article makes clear the Canadians are frustrated by the enemy's ability to move rapidly. The Canadians need only read the article on their own operation to see what is the problem. If you're going to plan a raid against a single compound with greater care and in greater detail than you did for the Dieppe raid, and use three companies, and each of your men is humping 70-100 pounds of gear, then you are going to be moving at a tenth of the enemy's speed, and that's all there is to it. We wonder what the Canadians were expecting by way of opposition? A hundred Taliban? They knew they were targeting a compound, and its likely they had information so detailed they knew the brand of toilet paper the insurgents use. (This is sarcasm, the Taliban doesn't use toilet paper.) We venture to guess they knew they were facing just a handful of men. Now, any Indian familiar with the Indian Army will tell you the catch in our scenario. It is more than likely 2-5 Indian troops will get killed, and as many wounded, and there is a high probability the major will be killed if not seriously wounded. But this brings us to the crux of the matter. You either believe in your cause or you don't. If your first, second, and last priority is force protection and not fighting the enemy, you honestly, seriously, really need to go home. And our readers will know we are addressing the Americans and not the Canadians. And it goes without saying, given this was a carefully preplanned operation, once the insurgents fired shots, if it had been the Americans, you would have seen air, artillery, and helicopter strikes even if it was just one compound. We invite our Indian readers to tell us in more detail how the Indian Army would have done the compound operation. 0230 GMT November 2, 2008 UK SAS Afghanistan Commander Resigns over what he says are repeated failures to address his complaints that his troops have inadequate/inferior equipment. He lost four of his troops to a mine blast when they were traveling in a vehicle that is not mine protected. So apropos what we said the other day, that military officers should be prepared to reign if neccessary, here we have one officer who has done just that. Of course, there is a big difference if you are a field officer: you have most of your working life ahead of you; for senior generals, resignation fairly much ends your working life. One supposes you could get consulting work, but one wonders in the American corporate environment how welcome would be a senior officer who has resigned among much press coverage. On a micro-level, we are intrigued to learn that one of the SAS troops was a woman. With the support unit, perhaps? Further, the unit is a reservist squadron (US company), D/23rd SAS, recruited from the Scottish Highlands. Has the US sent any reserve SFG or battalion thereof to Iran/Afghanistan. Syria Withdraws Surveillance Force From Iraq Border says Debka, which adds the force includes two border and two infantry brigades for the 600-km border. We don't doubt that Syria will make its displeasure clear to the US, but we are wondering: aren't the four brigades there to protect Syria's border with Iraq rather than to help Iraq/US by controlling infiltration? When there is a war going on in a neighboring country, you don't leave your border unprotected. Meanwhile, an October 27 Debka report quotes a villager at the site of the US raid saying the Americans took away two people with them. This, of course, is what we've been assuming; nonetheless, at such times, particularly if the raid took place at night, eyewitness reports are unreliable. This Is One Heavy Lifter The Dutch are building a undersea deepwater oil-pipe layer which will also be lift oil rigs for repositioning. This baby will be the largest ship in the world - we haven't been able to get its displacement yet; its length is a bit short of 1200-feet. But the cranes that lifts rigs can hoist 52,000-short-tons. Yoicks. That's about the tonnage of all the AFVs (tanks, IFVs, SP Artillery) in a US armored division. Of course, the volume of the division's AFVs is larger than the volume of a rig. But still. Obama's Auntie So the press has located Obama's aunt. She is living as an illegal in Boston and contributed $265 to his campaign - also illegal as she is not a US citizen. Great job, mainstream media. You are all so diligent, so persevering, so brave. We bow in awed wonder at your divine prowess. We'd be nothing without you. not even as the dust on the soles of your shoes. Thank you, thank you, thank you. May we suggest another matter of vital importance for you to investigate? Since Obama may become president, your investigation may be key to whether he can stay in office. We have it on excellent evidence that eight years ago, Mrs. Obama purchased $30 worth of toys from Toys R Us. The toys were made by exploited Chinese migrant workers paid 75 cents a day for 14-hours workdays - that's after deductions for "housing" (a filthy bunk with six to a room 60 square feet and a toilet per 200 workers), "food" (two "meals" prepared in rat-infested kitchens, mainly stale vegetables, contaminated rice, and a few lumps of fat from unknown animals), and "medical care" (you get fired and sent off the premises if you get seriously sick from the on the site environmental pollution pr from any other reason.) A bigger scandal is harder to imagine. Obama is obviously unfit to rule. Jeez. Journalistic integrity requires us to state we oppose all illegal immigration to the US, we oppose Obama for president, that we think the US system election funding is the second-biggest legalized corruption scheme in the world (till recently the first, now it is the government bailout), and that the mainstream media is completely sexist in the matter of women political candidates regardless of party. 0230 GMT November 1, 2008 Happy Happy Joy Joy Forget to mention: those financial institutions receiving taxpayer largesse? Not only can they add the money to their reserves, not only can they use it to pay dividends, not only can they use it to buy other banks, get this, they can also use the money for bonuses. Why anyone on Wall Street should be getting a bonus, leave alone at taxpayer expense, is beyond us. But it does show one thing. No sense to beat up Wall Street and capitalists and so on for being venal. The United States Executive and Legislature are also venal. People go on and on about how Bush and Friends have made much money off Iraq, but where's the outrage about the biggest open theft of the people's money in the history of the Republic? In three days the US will elect a new president, a new House of representatives, and 33 new senators. Absolutely nothing will change. The looting of the public treasury will continue. What's worse: the looting or the apathy of the American people? The communists never had as much control over what their citizens thought as our democracy has over what its citizens think. When the communists stole from their citizens, they had the decency to do it behind closed doors in darkened rooms. American leaders have gone far, far better. They steal in broad daylight and have convinced their people it is all for the people's good. Congo a ceasefire has been declared and the rebels have stopped their advance on Goma. Diplomats are rushing in from all over the place to hold negotiations with a renegade Tutsi and his men who were among the perpetrators of the Rwanda genocide. Once again, no one in the world gives a darn about the sufferings of Africans - about a million people have been displaced, and the Congo Army, trained by several nations, has distinguished itself by retreating ASAP and then wrecking loot, murder, and rape among the citizens it is supposed to protect. France, to give it credit, tried to get the Euros to send in a 1500 troop rapid reaction force to help the UN. The Euros said forget it, and of course, Germany was right up there leading the opposition charge. Meantime, we have India, that shining example of assistance to its fellow brothers and sisters of the 3rd World. India has ~800 battalions worth of regular combat troops, well-trained border protection forces, and central armed police. It has sent a brigade's worth of troops to the Congo, and that is more than most countries. But do we see India stepping up to the plate for the Congo, saying "we want to be a world power, we have a responsibility to help those who have suffered and continue to suffer from the ravages of colonialism and misrule by their own people"? No. We see India dismissing the problem with a sad shake of the head, "It's terrible, but its for the white countries to sort out. We have our own problems." We Indians love to boast about how deep is our tradition of ethics, of justice, of protecting the weak. But that's all it is: boasts. Continue to archived news FEB 2009 JAN 2009 DEC 2008 NOV 2008 OCT 2008 SEP 2008 AUG 2008 JUL 2008 JUN 2008 MAY 2008 APR 2008 MAR 2008 FEB 2008 JAN 2008 DEC 2007 NOV 2007 OCT 2007 SEP 2007 AUG 2007 JUL 2007 JUN 2007 MAY 2007 APR 2007 MAR 2007 FEB 2007 JAN 2007 2006 DEC 2005 NOV 2005 2004 2003

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