Welcome to  America Goes To War. We focus on news about the war on terror and other important strategic matters.

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Staff Editor & Publisher Ravi Rikhye Concise World Armies 2007 Due to repeated delays in updating the 2007, we are making updates available on an annual subscription basis ($75 E-copy) and adding countries every week. You can order the 2006 version and keep receiving 2007 updates: a 2-in-1 deal. Email Editor or order. List of Countries Now Available [151 countries/territories] July additions  7.1 Barbados, Belgium,  Republic of Korea, Kazakhstan, Jordan//7.2 Austria//7.3 Bosnia-Herzegovina & Srpska, Czech//7.4 Brunei; Bulgaria; Burkina Faso;  Burundi; Cayman Islands; Christmas Island; Cocos (Keeling) Islands; Congo, Republic of; Cook Islands; Coral Sea Islands; Costa Rica; Navassa Island; Norfolk Island//7.5 British Indian Ocean Territory; Benin; Bolivia//7.6 Bouvet Island; British Virgin Islands; Cambodia; Clipperton Island; Colombia//7.7 CAR; Chad; Ivory Coast//7.8 Dominica; Dominican Republic; Djibouti; Ecuador; Ethiopia//7.9 Eritrea, Estonia//7.11 Uzbekistan//7.13 Falklands (Malvinas), South Georgia & Sandwich Islands; Fiji; French Polynesia//7.14 New Caledonia; Wallis & Fortuna//7.15 Nicaragua; Oman//7.16 Palestine National Authority - West Bank; Palestine National Authority - Gaza//7.19 Ghana//7.20 Gabon; Gambia//7.25 Argentina; Poland

RETURN TO MAIN Condensed World Armies Condensed World Paramilitary Forces 2006 Analysis WE BRING YOU THE WORLD © Published on an ad hoc basis Declassified Gulf II Planning Documents Report on US Army readiness March 2007 [Thanks Joseph Stefula] Welcome to  America Goes To War. We focus on news about the war on terror and other important strategic matters. 0230 GMT December 31, 2007 Sri Lanka Adopts Military Solution To LTTE Problem Sri Lanka forces continue an offensive against rebel LTTE positions. The Army chief and government officials appear to have taken the position - correctly, in our view - that no negotiated settlement is possible with the LTTE after more than two decades of failed attempts. The only thing the rebel leaders seem to understand is force. The Army chief says his objective is to kill 10 insurgents a day till the hard core of 3000 is eliminated. We do not mean to imply the government has given up on political action. It is simply that this time the government to determined to negotiate from a very strong hand and that means sustained military action. On his part, the rebel leader says no talks are now possible since the Sri Lankans killed his political head in an air strike. These are simply excuses because he does not, in our opinion, intend to give up as long as he has the slightest chance of continuing his insurgency. Incidentally, we all tend to think of suicide bombing as an Islamic fundamentalist tactic. The Sri Lanka insurgents were actually the first to use it as a standard tactic, including the extra reprehensible use of women as bombers. That the LTTE insurgents are some of the toughest fighters in the world is indisputable. They have been helped by the equally indisputable incompetence of Sri Lanka's military/political leadership. A global crackdown on the LTTE's drug/arms smuggling has, however, weakened the rebels. They are today regarded less as freedom fighters and more as terrorists. And though - again in our opinion - it is too early to tell if the government has finally gotten itself together sufficiently to deal a lasting and crippling blow to the LTTE. Sudan Says Dafur Rebels and Chad Forces Open Offensive Chad says it has acted only to push Sudan-backed fighters out of its territory and that it is stopped at the Sudan/Dafur frontier. BBC says fighting began Friday and that the UN has withdrawn humanitarian staff from two border towns. 19-Year Is Named Heir To Mrs. Bhutto's Political Party Bilawal Bhutto Zardari is to lead the Pakistan People's Party with his father as as regent while he returns to England to complete his studies. Party officials say Mrs. Bhutto's will designated her husband as her successor, but with the party's endorsement he decided to nominate the son. Meanwhile, while violence continues in Pakistan, there is no more talk of chaos and civil war. Perhaps 50-60 people have been killed, which is an absolutely insignificant figure. The focus now seems to be if elections will be postponed. The Pakistan government's first inclination is to hold them on time January 8th. The two main opposition parties seem prepared to now stick to that date, but President Musharraf's party wants a delay. Presumably they want to reduce the effect of a sympathy vote on Bilawal Bhutto Zardari's party. We are wondering since Mrs. Bhutto broke her agreement to work with President Musharraf if the president will stick to his part, amnesty for past offenses. The promise was made to Mrs. Bhutto and covered her husband, but now she has gone, and in any case she did not keep her part of the agreement, it is unclear how the President/government view the matter. The mechanism to revoke immunity is simple. A private citizen challenges the grant of amnesty in court; the court - now stacked with loyalists - says "yes, yes, it was illegal", and Bam! Mr. Zardari is back in jail or in exile. There will be people in his own party who would prefer that. From Michael Epstein I agree that the unbalance in population is responsible for much of the social and political problems in today's world, among other issues. Is it an issue that can be solved by the World during the 21st century? Or is it something that will be an ongoing issue for the next few centuries, possibly even destroying Mankind in the end? Editor's reply Hope is there, for sure. India has reduced its fertility rate from 6 on 1955 to 3 today. It is on track to reduce it to 2.2, replacement rate, by 2020. India has done this without any coercion - the ad hoc and irrational efforts during the Emergency of 1975-77 being an obvious, but thankfully short-lived, exception. if India, which has the second-largest population in the world, and which to some extent is still a functioning anarchy, can achieve this, so can other nations. In India the key factors were education, particularly women's education, and better health care. Income increases played a smaller part. The problems are two. First, there is no way in which India can escape a population of 1.6-billion before hitting replacement rate because there are hundreds of millions of youngsters that will grow up and have children of their own. This probably applies to many other countries as well. Iran, for example, went from a rate of 7 in 1986 to an expected 2 in 2010 http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/Update4ss.htm and this is a truly remarkable drop Second, while we are not "Club of Rome" types, common sense says that there is no way 3-billion Indians/Chinese and 2-billion other nationalities, are going to have an OCED standard of living on the present model of what constitutes the good life. The US, for example, has about 0.8 motor vehicles per capita. The average American house is now in excess of 200 square meters. Let's not even try and calculate how many bottles of water or Starbucks Americans drink (though we do recall being told the Italians are the bottled water champs). 0230 GMT December 30, 2007 Has Washington Learned Its Lesson In Pakistan? Faster than Orbat.com believed possible, US policy in Pakistan has collapsed - again. The first time was when Pakistan resumed arming/equipping/training the Taliban, who now control most of Afghanistan if you count the areas where its writ runs by night as well as by day. The second time was when Mrs. Bhutto was murdered. We wonder what gave the US the right to decide that Mrs. Bhutto should lead the Pakistan people. We didn't hear anything about the Pakistan people having the right to chose Nawaz-i-Sharif, who also was in exile, and who also was twice prime minister. We didn't hear the US working to strike a deal between him and President Musharraf as it did for Mrs. Bhutto. We didn't hear the US demanding assurances from the Pakistan government that Nawaz-i-Sharif's security be assured. In fact, so little concern has been shown for Pakistan's other civilian leader that outsiders must wonder if Washington even knows that the man exists. But you see, none of this was important. Washington chose its viceroy to rule Pakistan, and everyone else, including Nawaz, simply had to lump it. On what basis did Washington chose Mrs. Bhutto? You will be told it was on the basis that she was the hope for democracy in Pakistan. Let us for the moment ignore the inconvenient truth that it is not for Washington to decide what form of government Pakistan should have. Let us also for the moment ignore the inconvenient truth that Mrs. Bhutto would have been an exceedingly weak leader, able neither to control the military, nor Pakistan's dominant feudal interests - to which she belonged, heart and soul, no democrat she - and nor would she have had the slightest impact on the fundamentalists. These realities are such they make Washington's little brain hurt, so Washington ignored them, much as it ignores anything that doesn't fit in with its preconceived notions, and which just might be the reason this great and wonderful country is going down the flush right after it reached its zenith as global leader. The reason Mrs. Bhutto was chosen is very simple. She was a woman, she was good looking, she was charming, she spoke excellent English, she was educated at Oxford and Harvard, and - very important - she understood how to lobby Washington. Nawaz, simple country bumpkin that he is wouldn't have the first idea of how to get Washington's support. In other words, she was the closest thing to a brown American as was possible for any Pakistani leader. Of course, those who really knew her - as opposed to the facade she presented to her western admirers - know she was anything but American. Which American, for example, makes a will in which s/he designates who is to head the party after her/him? After all, the party should not be Mrs. Bhutto's personal property to will. But this being South Asia, not America, of course it is hers to will. Strangely, it didn't seem to bother either Washington or her admirers that her administrations were thoroughly suffused in corruption or that she may have at the very least condoned the murder of her brother, who came to oppose her, by her husbands goons. When Sam, that ancient roue, falls in love with a young woman, little blemishes like that don't seem to worry him as prospective bridegroom. Okay, enough of the harangue. The point is simple: has Washington learned its lesson re. Pakistan? The answer is no. Washington's reaction to failure at the hands of cruel reality is, these days, not to pull back, but to double the stakes while following the same failed strategy. What Washington will now do is to deal directly with the Pakistan Army and get it to replace Musharraf - its old strategy that failed, before it hit upon the "brilliant" idea of sending Mrs. Bhutto back to Pakistan. This strategy too will fail, again,  for reasons we have mentioned before. Pakistan is in a very difficult state right now. Neither the Praetorian Guard - the nine corps commanders who actually lead the troops, nor the GHQ generals who serve as the frontmen for the corps commanders, have the slightest interest in openly leading Pakistan. They could have thrown President Musharraf at any time, but Washington failed to get them to make the change because they are quite happy to have a compliant President Musharraf as head of state. If things go badly - as they will - President Musharraf gets the blame. If they go well, then the commanders might decide to back this candidate or that candidate from among the GHQ generals for president and effect a regime change. This won't happen for five years because no frontman for the army as loyal as President Musharraf is available. He is one of them, his entire existence, indeed, his very life, is dependent on his doing what they want. Why change him, then? Someone may well ask: "Wait a minute, what business does Washington have treating directly with Pakistani generals and trying to get them to do its will? Isn't Pakistan a sovereign country? Don't Washington's actions constitute the worst kind of interference?" Well, yes. But you see, Washington believes Pakistan is an American colony. It has never treated Pakistan as a sovereign state, as a partner. Pakistan's abject capitulation to Washington's ultimatums after 9/11 - cooperate or we put you back into the Stone Age - served only to confirm, in Washington's mind, that it was master and Pakistan servant. Too bad, Washington, that you didn't understand the Pakistani mindset. Which is to go "Ji, hazoor" - loosely translated as "Yes, master", and continue exactly as they were doing earlier. You'd think that in 50 years of dealing with Pakistani generals Washington would by now have their number. But no. That it might be going about things the wrong way never occurs to Washington because it is dealing with brown men who, Washington demands, should know their place. When some members of the Washington elite insist that President Musharraf is the only option American has, they are closer to the truth than perhaps even they know. President Musharraf may be the last of five decades of Pakistani generals who is willing to tug the forelock and shuffle the feet. The new generation of Pakistani generals are quite different. They are quite capable of telling American to stuff it, and this is particularly true of General Kiyani, the new chief. This doesn't mean General Kiyani and others like him won't work with Washington if it is to their interest. It does mean they will not sell Pakistan down the river for the proverbial 12 pieces of American silver. The truth is no Pakistani general has ever been willing to do that. But at least they could pretend they were bought, to keep America happy. This new lot will not even pretend. We leave this polemic with two thoughts for America and for India. First, has anyone bothered working out the consequences if tomorrow PRC tells Pakistan: "the Americans give you $2-billion a year and rob you of your dignity. Now their star is falling. We'll give you $2-billion a year and respect. Just kick the Americans out." Is this going to happen in 2008? Unlikely. But every year from now, as China grows in power and is better able to clear America off its periphery, this is going to become more likely till it becomes a certainty. Second, has anyone bothered working out the consequences if it occurs to the Pakistanis that logically the only way they can regain their self-respect, and have any chance of defeating India, is to turn fundamentalist? Think about that, folks - if your head doesn't hurt too much, poor things. 0230 GMT December 29, 2007 Why Did Mrs. Bhutto's Husband Forbid An Autopsy? We are told that it is because Islam forbids desecration of a body. But Mrs. Bhutto was the victim of a crime, whether she was shot, hit by shrapnel, or was felled by the bomb's blast and hit her head against a lever of her car's sunroof. Are we to believe that autopsies of crime victims are forbidden in Islamic countries? Our point is this: doubtless the Pakistan Government has a version of Mrs. Bhutto's death it wants put out to suit itself. But Mrs. Bhutto's supporters also have their own preferred narrative, that she was killed at the very least because the Government failed to provide her security and possibly because the Government wanted her dead. The government, at least, has produced an x-ray of her skull that shows two deep indentations that look caused by a blunt object or objects. Mrs. Bhutto's followers have produced nothing, except  "I myself saw this or saw that". Contrawise, readers can ask "why did the Government release Mrs. Bhutto's body to her family/supporters without ordering an autopsy?" Believe it or not, there is a perfectly rational explanation, but you have to be familiar with South Asia to appreciate it. First, the body was never in the custody of the Government. Mrs. Bhutto was rushed to hospital by her followers, they surrounded it at all times. Second, from all the evidence available, top doctors at the hospital did a quick examination and declared her dead, and the body was taken away by her followers. But why did the doctors not say: "Wait a minute, there has to be a police investigation, the body cannot be removed"? Well, would anyone have listened to them? As it is Mrs. Bhutto's supporters were smashing doors and such at the hospital, it goes without saying that her supporters would have beat up the doctors and taken the body, saying the murderous government would not be allowed to get its hands on her and so on. Okay, but why did the police immediately not get reinforcements to the hospital? Pakistan, like most third world countries, has a weak police presence when it comes to criminal investigation. As is the case for most of the third world, police is trained primarily for mob control. Moreover, this was not some random citizen murdered in the street, this was one of Pakistan's top leaders. Normal police criminal investigation procedure is even less applicable. We are certain the last thing on the mind of the police was "we'd better get to the hospital with 1000 reinforcements and make sure proper police procedure is followed while fighting a minor war with Mrs. Bhutto's supporters." Could Better Security Have Saved Mrs. Bhutto? A lot of people in Washington who are angrily denouncing the Pakistan Government's failure to provide adequate security to Mrs. Bhutto are clueless about what they are saying. Security is not a matter of surrounding a leader with phalanxes of police. The leader has to agree to enormous restrictions on her/his freedom of movement. You can see from any number of photographs/video of Mrs. Bhutto's rallies that they are complete chaos. She is surrounded at all times by tens of thousands of people. The possibility of controlling access to her immediate vicinity simply does not arise. Moreover, she refused restrictions on her access to the people. The Pakistan Government explained to her what was needed to assure her security and she said no - because, as we've said several times - she believed the government was using her security as an excuse to isolate her from her followers. Look, people, at the end of her rally she jumps into her car and then stands up through the sunroof to wave to people. She could have been shot or bombed at anytime prior, but in this particular case had she been fully inside the car, she could have survived. Moreover, as far as we know, the car was not a special armored vehicle, but an ordinary vehicle belonging to her friend and political partner Mrs. Sherry Rehman. We have some personal knowledge of the security that was given to the Indian Prime Minister, Mr. Rajiv Gandhi. Before he left his residence, at least two dummy convoys of cars exactly like the ones in his real convoy would take off at high speed in different directions. His real convoy consisted of a number of identical cars with dark windows, so there was no way of telling in which car he was, even if you got the real convoy. His route was never known to anyone outside his closest security advisors. He was surrounded at all time by - if we recall right - something like five layers of security. Something like 3-500 security personnel were deployed around his house alone, 24/7. The close cordon was maintained by bodyguards and by army commandos specially trained for the job. These gentlemen kept their assault rifles off-safety and with their fingers on triggers at all times when they were around Mr. Gandhi. They spent an unbelievable amount of time training and shooting, firing off thousands of rounds annually to keep them sharp. They were under orders to shoot anyone who presented any threat, no questions asked. This was just for when he went to office, perhaps 3-4 kilometers from his house. In public rallies he appeared only behind bullet proof glass. A wide, empty gap was kept between him and the first row of the public. Anyone getting into the gap from the crowd would have been shot down. The location of his podium was carefully selected and all vulnerable points guarded by layers of security. In short, Mr. Gandhi lived in a heavily protected cocoon. And of course, when he was no longer Prime Minister and he went back to mingling with his supporters and pressing the flesh, a suicide bomber got him even though as ex-Prime Minister and head of the then second most important political party he was still given protection no ordinary very important person could imagine. Compare, contrast what we have said above with the way Mrs. Bhutto conducted her rallies. 0230 GMT December 28, 2007 Al-Qaeda Takes Credit For Mrs. Bhutto's Assassination says the Long War Journal http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2007/12/al_qaeda_takes_credi.php The story is complicated, so we suggest you read it for yourself. Mrs. Benazir Bhutto Was Assassinated yesterday at a political rally at Rawalpindi in Pakistan, agencies report. Rawalpindi is the old city adjacent to modern Islamabad. A suicide bomber on a motorcycle shot her before blowing himself up along with 20+ others, according to BBC which gives the police as one source. Mrs. Bhutto had just finished a speech and gotten into her car. she stood up through an opening in the roof. Her convoy was leaving the meeting place when she was attacked [BBC]. Rioting erupted in many Pakistan cities with 100 cars burned in Karachi and with attacks on gas stations plus other establishments. Trains have also been attacked. In our opinion, statements such as those made by Times London that her killing has triggered fears of a civil war are vast exaggerations. So are reports that Pakistan has been plunged into chaos. While undoubtedly there will be much more action by Mrs. Bhutto's supporters, we foresee that the situation will be quickly brought under control, if neccessary after the declaration of yet another emergency. We remind readers we had mentioned that immediately after her return from exile we were told that she was targeted and it was just a matter of time before she was killed. The Pakistan Government had offered her the same level of security cover given to the President after a first attempt on her life as she drove from Karachi International Airport to her home as she returned from exile. We'd mentioned that her problem with the offer was she saw it as a cynical move by the Government to isolate her from her followers because the security required very tight restrictions on who she met and where. In South Asia the mass rally, with hundreds of thousands of people attending and minimal protection for the politician, is a tradition that cannot be easily done away with. US/Iraq Forces Kill 11 Special Groups Operatives In Al-Kut The men belonged to a breakaway faction of al-Sadr's Mahadi Army. As earlier, we caution readers on this matter of "breakaway groups". There is no telling if they really are not under al-Sadr's command, or if he has only ostensibly distanced himself for public relations reasons. Long War Journal, a reliable independent media source on Iraq in particular and the GWOT in general, has the story as well as a detailed explanation of Iran's setup to infiltrate money, arms, and trainers to a number of groups in Iraq. Please read at http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2007/12/iraq_11_iranian_spec.php Al-Sadr We also remind readers al-Sadr's order to his forces to ceasefire, which has led to a big drop in Iraq violence, is unlikely to represent a change of heart. Al-Sadr has repeatedly learned the cost of taking on the Americans. Plus the Americans have learned a few things and have been waging a relentless low-level war against him while boosting him in public as a responsible person who will help stabilize Iraq. Al-Sadr cannot say a thing because each time the US takes out a leader or a cell, it blandly says "this was a renegade group out of al-Sadr's control." Very clever indeed. But from what we hear, he is quiet only because he understands US domestic opposition to the war is now intense. He is laying low all the better to get the Americans to declare victory and leave. We had a good laugh the other day at some report or the other that said he had decided to be a religious leader only, like his father, and was renouncing violence. He has renounced violence in Baghdad because he has to contend with nine American brigades. Anyone would renounce violence in the face of 2 1/2 American divisions eager to get into a real fight. But in the south, the other battleground, he is busy fighting anyone who would deny him supremacy, be they Shia or Sunni. He has taken a few hard blows at the hands of the Najaf Shias. Nonetheless, he has the biggest force in Iraq under his command outside the Government and Kurdish Peshmerga, and he is not going anywhere. From James Phillips In your piece on the Canadian Minister of Defence's comments about Iran and IEDs, you said, "We mention this because US intelligence on just about anything to do with Iran's activities is pretty much discredited. US is seen as twisting intel data for political gain. If Canada is also saying Iran is arming the Taliban, we need to take these reports more seriously." Unfortunately, the Canadian government has been loath to invest in intelligence assets of its own and relies heavily on its allies (i.e. the United States) for almost all strategic intelligence. Chances are that the information on which Minister Mackay based his comments came from the same US intelligence assets that you described as "pretty much discredited". Editor's Comment We are aware of Canadian intel's problem and had, in fact, long ago offered the Canadians that we'd provide them all the lower-level intel from the Iran plus South Asia theatres of the GWOT that they could use. This would have permitted them to free up their limited assets for higher level work. Even the Canadians wouldn't take us seriously, and that was a new low for us. The Editor may not have helped our case by giving his unasked for opinion that the higher level intel work generally produced worthless results, but was a game that countries felt compelled to play. This is nothing but the demonstrated truth, but if you say things like that, your potential clients think you're a nutcase. The best intel value comes from lower level work. We'll discuss one of these days why we say that. Update 1530 GMT 0230 GMT December 27, 2007 1530 GMT Mrs. Benazir Bhutto Assassinated at a political rally at Rawalpindi in Pakistan, agencies report. Rawalpindi is the old city adjacent to modern Islamabad. A suicide bomber on a motorcycle shot her before blowing himself up along with 14 others, according to BBC which gives the police as one source. We remind readers we had mentioned that immediately after her return from exile we were told that she was targeted and it was just a matter of time before she was killed. The Pakistan Government had offered her the same level of security cover given to the President after a first attempt on her life as she drove from Karachi International Airport to her home as she returned from exile. We'd mentioned that her problem with the offer was she saw it as a cynical move by the Government to isolate her from her followers because the security required very tight restrictions on who she met and where. In South Asia the mass rally, with hundreds of thousands of people attending and minimal protection for the politician, is a tradition that cannot be easily done away with. Unlike many in the west, we were not her fans. We saw her as arrogant, immature, unprincipled, inefficient and corrupt. She was a mirror image of India's Rajiv Gandhi with the exception she was very intelligent and he was a duffer. Nonetheless, as far as we know, she personally never ordered anyone's death, nor was she a dictator or an authoritarian. As such her opponents are wrong to have killed her. Factional Fighting In Pakistan's Kurram Agency in the North West Frontier Agency over the last 4 days has resulted in 47 killed, including many civilians, says Jang of Pakistan. It's never easy to learn from Pakistani media what's really going on, but a reading of the Frontier Post and Dawn suggests that Taliban from South Waziristan are seeking to extend their influence in Kurram, and are attacking local tribes. Never a dull moment in the Frontier Province. Canadian Defense Minister Says Iran Arming Taliban 73 Canadians have been killed since 2002, mainly in IED attacks. Iran is a major source for Taliban IEDs he says. We mention this because US intelligence on just about anything to do with Iran's activities is pretty much discredited. US is seen as twisting intel data for political gain. If Canada is also saying Iran is arming the Taliban, we need to take these reports more seriously. Of course, for Iran to help the Taliban is natural and people who say "oh, Iranians are Shia and Taliban are Sunni so Iran cannot be helping" need to get a grip. National imperatives overshadow sectarian considerations. Iran has been surrounded by the US, and helping America's enemies is one way for Teheran to hit back. That the Taliban are Sunnis is irrelevant to Iran in this particular war. Water in Pakistan: Just another example of the need to be careful with statistics This figure caught our eye: In 1951, Pakistan's availability of water per capita was 5600 cubic meters/year. By 2012 this is expected to drop to 1000 cm/year says Jang.  In 1951, Pakistan's population was 34-million. Since that time the population has increased by 5 times. We are not 100% sure of our figures, but believe the rate of growth has come down from 3.6% annually, the high point, to about 2.6% now. That means by 2012 the population will be about 185-million. So things look bleak. Then we decided to check the US stats. according to World Bank figures http://www.newton.dep.anl.gov/askasci/gen01/gen01629.htm in 2000 the US used 1500 cm/year of water per capita, for all purposes including domestic, commercial, industrial and agricultural. US uses much more water than Europe. So perhaps the problem in Pakistan is efficiency of use. Even in 2012 Pakistan should have as much water per capita available as Europe uses. Then we checked figures for per capita availability for the US: at least 7000 cm per capita is available http://www.maps.com/ref_map.aspx?pid=12872 So perhaps there is a problem, insofar as there can be a big difference between theoretical availability and actual availability. People keep saying global warming is the greatest threat mankind faces We're not sure it isn't overpopulation. For example, how is the US going to manage with a population of 700-million in 2100? [We're being generous with the illegal immigration official US population growth rate is .9%, population doubles every 80 years. But the actual rate is higher because of illegal immigration. So we're assuming illegals will add only .1% growth.] It's also worth investigating the relationship, if any, between massive population growth in poorer countries and terror. Pakistan's population is now doubling every 35 years or so; because of the immense backlog of under-18s waiting to get married and have kids, a doubling by 2040 seems inevitable. That will make 320-million people. Think about the problems that will cause. Walter E. Wallis On US Army's Buildup In response to our estimate that of the 65,000 troops to be added to the regular army by 2011-13 20,000 will go into combat brigades and the rest into supporting units of various kinds, Mr. wallis had this to say: "The tail will grow? Put the money into tooth and let Haliburton and others bid the support rolls. I want not to tie us to foreign bases." 0230 GMT December 26, 2007 Russia Tests RS-24 ICBM, New SLBM Both were fired at a target in the Kamchatka Peninsula. The ICBM flew 7000-kms; the SLBM was launched from the Barents Sea. Russia says the RS-24 carries at least 3 warheads capable of penetrating any ABM defense. Good for you, Russia. Any chance you can stop whining about the US ABM deployment to Central Europe since its obviously ineffective against your new missile, at least according to your reckoning? New US Army Brigades At reader Afan Khan's request we tracked down plans for the new US Army brigades. With the exception one brigade activating at Ft. Bliss, TX in 2009, the remainder are slated for 2011, with one at Ft. Carson, two at Ft. Stewart, and another at Ft. Bliss. So it will basically ten years after 9/11 that the US Army will be expanded. For the five brigades, totaling about 20,000 troops, the US Army will add another 45,000 in combat support and service units. This must be the smallest, slowest, most pathetic buildup undertaken by a major power in history. We hope it makes sense to someone, because it sure doesn't make sense to us. With 46 brigades in the force, the US Army will be able to deploy 15 overseas at a time. This is inadequate for today; surely it is not possible to predict with confidence what the requirements for 2011 will be. More Burundi Troops In Somalia Another 100 arrived yesterday. Burundi will deploy two infantry battalions of 850 troops each plus HQ and support units for a total of ~1900. Turkey At It Again It claims it has killed "hundreds" of insurgents while striking 200 targets. It says on December 16 alone 175 insurgents were killed. More air strikes were reported yesterday. Since the Iraqi Kurds say 10 civilians have been killed, we offer these possibilities: (a) Iraqi Kurds are lying; (b) Turkish Air Force cannot count; (c) At the instant they cross the Iraq border, Turkish strike aircraft are diverted into an alternate universe thanks to a hot new toy developed by Atari Corp. for Christmas 2008. The prototype was seized by the CIA using a new secret law that permits the Government to appropriate toys in the national interest. In this alternate universe, cabbages are called "PPK rebels". (4) Turkish Government is lying through its teeth to appease its people who are demanding retaliation and we are witnessing one of the biggest cons of recent years. This just in: while the CIA was testing the toy, it accidentally aimed the toy at Washington, DC. The nation's capital is now located in hyperspace at a locality identified only as "La La Land". Since the CIA is located at Langley, Virginia - or at least says it is - it is quite safe. Given the increasingly bad blood between the CIA and the Administration, informed sources tell the Washington Post the accident was really an "accident" (think Austin Powers"). This also just in: the rest of the US has as yet to notice that its Government is missing. when informed of the disaster, Jane Splatzinger, 9, of Fromage, Michigan told NBC news: "I had noticed that for the first time since Ronald Reagan, the American government was actually not b*gg*ering things up. I hope there are no plans to return Washington, DC to our universe anytime soon." From Anthony E. Paulsen III: A California Christmas My father-in-law sent this from Sacramento: To My Democrat Friends Please accept with no obligation, implied or explicit, my best wishes for an environmentally conscious, socially responsible, low-stress, non-addictive, gender-neutral celebration of the winter solstice holiday, practiced within the most enjoyable traditions of the religious persuasion of your choice, or secular practices of your choice, with respect for the religious/secular persuasion and/or traditions of others, or their choice not to practice religious or secular traditions at all. I also wish you a fiscally successful, personally fulfilling and medically uncomplicated recognition of the onset of the generally accepted calendar year 2008, but not without due respect for the calendars of choice of other cultures whose contributions to society have helped make America great. Not to imply that America is necessarily greater than any other country nor the only America in the Western Hemisphere. Also, this wish is made without regard to the race, creed, color, age, physical ability, religious faith or sexual preference of the wishee. To My Republican Friends: Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! From Flymike On Israel-in-America There are no easy solutions to this problem. More Jews live in America than in Israel so what you propose is already in effect. Overall, hasn't the region seen 2000-years of  ongoing conflict? Now the Muslim/Arabs are involved, and they seem even more intolerant, the old religion/politics combined and sometimes taken to extremes. 0230 GMT December 25, 2007 Iraqi Kurds Warn Turkey to stop its air attacks. Kurdistan's president denounced the raids while standing next to the Iraqi president, who happens to be Kurdish. The Kurds say the Turks have been hitting civilian areas where no insurgents are to be found. They say 10 civilians have been killed and 2000 civilians have had to flee their homes. Italians Issue 146 Warrants Against Latin American Officials most of whom seem to be retired, and at least six of whom are dead. The warrants arise from complaints in Italian courts by Latin Americans who were affected by Operation Condor, a six-nation informal alliance that in the 1970s-1980s tracked down and assassinated left-wing political opponents. Seems to us the Italians are having a competition with the Spanish as to who can go further in taking up human rights cases that have nothing to do with them. Also seems to us just a matter of time before warrants start going out for US officials for the many American interventions all over the world. So far the US has managed to squash efforts by a couple of individual European judges to indict US officials, including Mr. Donald Rumsfeld. We honestly wouldn't count on the US managing to quash for much longer. And there is no statute of limitations on murder - charges could be brought 10, 20, 30, 40 years from now. IDF Did Not Kill Muhammad Al-Doura We must in all fairness carry this story and you can read it for yourself at http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?c=JPArticle&cid=1198517197778&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull Muhammad was the little Palestine boy made iconic as a symbol of Israel brutality/repression. He is the boy who we see crouched behind a barrel with his father while the IDF engages in firing, and who, AFP told us with plenty of pictures and video footage, is killed by IDF shots. The story/images undoubtedly fueled Palestinian fury during the Intifada and were used by the Palestinians to justify their attacks on Israeli civilians. Turns out the cameraman who took the images was lying to the AFP journalist who broke the "story", and further turns out the AFP journalist knew the cameraman was lying. The film was shown in court and though the court ordered all 27 minutes to be shown unedited, the AFP journo showed an edited 18 minutes. Problem was, whoever did the editing blew the job, because right at the end of the film you can see Muhammad well and alive whereas the journo declared him killed. There are plenty of real Israeli atrocities committed against the Palestinians, and the latter have plenty of atrocities committed against Israeli civilians. There is no need to make up atrocities. Further, whatever the rights and wrongs of Israel-in-Palestine, Israeli attacks on civilians are usually committed enpassant: the IDF is not deliberately aiming for civilians. We realize the last 72-hours of the 2006 Lebanon War may be a case where civilians were deliberately targeted. But while that is being worked out, our generalization holds. The Palestinians, on the other hand, do target Israeli civilians. We appreciate that the Palestinians, as the far weaker party, have fewer good options available to resist the Israelis. Nonetheless, we believe any action against civilians, no matter what the provocation, is wrong. No one advances their cause by targeting civilians. When anyone speaks of why Israel is wrong to occupy Palestine, they invoke justice, morality, right-and-wrong. All the more reason for Palestinians to stay on the side of right. From Michael Epstein  I wanted to comment on the issue of taking millions of refugees from the Middle East and resettling them in America. In my opinion nothing would be more disastrous then to see any people, no matter how well educated and productive they are, taken from their homelands and forced to live in America. The unfortunate fact is that both sides, Israeli and Palestinians alike, have valid claims to the land that they live on. To ask either one to leave would be a remarkable act of gall for the International Community in general and America in particular, and would destroy any credibility the West has in negotiating with the rest of the world. In a less civilized (but more honest) age, both sides would have been more or less allowed to fight each other until one was destroyed, as Rome did upon Carthage, settling the issue definitively. As things stand now, I fear that the U.S. is only delaying a major regional war by spending political capital that it cannot afford to squander. Just for the sake of argument, say we Americans did take in one side to resolve the conflict. How would we deal with them? Would we give them autonomy within the U.S. in a similar fashion to the Native Americans? Allow them to practice laws that directly go against the Constitution? Or simply force them to assimilate as a consequence of lost nationhood? None of those solutions seem particularly desirable. I also must take issue with your comment about how America has "absorbed" 40 million (give or take) Latin American migrants in the last few years. We have not absorbed them at all, no nation no matter how large and developed could. To take in all at once another five million people (give or take) from yet another alien culture would undo us entirely. Immigration, like most things, is a double-edged sword. But I digress, that is a debate for another time. From Afan Khan I think you could explain to us why despite being in a war for almost 5 years, the US Army still has the same authorized strength that it had on Sept 10 2001 or even March 18th 2003? I am very surprised that the army has not increased its strength, as outside forces routinely do during wartime. How hard can it  be for the US to raise two new divisions fairly quickly, they have most of the equipment necessary available in storage; not like Iraq is  the epitome of high tech war, and calling up of reservists.  Right now everybody and his maiden aunt knows that once the "surge" brigades are withdrawn (as they inevitably have to be) the situation will return to the past. If there were additional forces available it would not be the case. Even if the increase did not occur in '03, certainly it should have when the surge strategy was decided on, and its been a year, so plenty of time to raise new forces. Editor's Comment When a nation starts relying on hope rather than facing realities, it is on the way downhill. So it is with the US. Every US strategy in Iraq, and we must be on the sixth or seventh iteration by now, has relied on hope that things will turn out well. The Surge is no different. My impression is that the Administration realizes perfectly well the war cannot be won as it is being fought. Mr. Bush has a single point agenda, which is to leave the problem to his successor and then blame the successor for failure. That this is cynical beyond words and a crime against the armed forces and the people is completely irrelevant to the Administration. As for the Democrats, they too are sold out. They will not take a principled stand and withdraw, nor will they take a principled stand and raise the additional divisions needed for the GWOT. The armed forces will continue to pay the price of their leaders' cupidity. In any other country, the armed forces would have revolted by now and told the government to go do unpleasant things to itself. This being America - and this may seem a paradox to anyone who is not familiar with the American military - you can 100% rely on the military's loyalty to the degenerate idiots of all political shades who run the country just because they wrap themselves in the flag. Since the Democrats also don't want to be known for "losing Iraq", we can fairly much expect that the US will be in Iraq in substantial force for at least the next 8 years. 0230 GMT December 24, 2007 News Burundi Troops Arrive In Somalia At long last other African Union troops have arrived in Somalia. So far only Uganda has sent troops, 1600 in all. An advance guard of 100 Burundi troops has reached Mogadishu; 1700 more troops will follow. BBC says that so far because of the shortage of troops, the AU force has been able to guard the airport/seaport, the presidential palace, and provide VIP security. Hopefully the addition of the Burundi troops will permit deployment for security of civilians and, equally important, encourage other AU nations to bring the total to the authorized 8,000. Ivory Coast: Another Small Ray Of Hope At long last, at least a year behind schedule and five years since the Ivory Coast civil war erupted, the government forces (south) and rebels (north) vacated positions in the UN patrolled buffer zone and prepared to disarm. BBC says 5,000 government and 33,000 rebel soldiers are to be disarmed. There is apprehension and skepticism that disarmament will really begin and will be successful, but at least some progress is being made in ending at least one of Africa's interminable wars. Kurds Say Turkey Carries Out More Air Strikes yesterday over a 3-hour period. They say no casualties resulted. Annapolis Readers will recall we did not bother commenting on this "momentous" and "historic" meeting of Israel and Palestine under American aegis at the Maryland city which is the state capital and is better known as the home of the US Naval Academy. Our reasoning was this was just another waste of time because sooner or later either the Palestine side would do something stupidly provocative or the Israelis would. Frankly, we'd put our money on the Palestinians being stupid soon. We aren't often wrong, but we were wrong this time, because its the Israelis have made the provocation. They've announced construction of an additional 700 homes in East Jerusalem. Israel has at various times promised to freeze new settlements, but of course it never does - nor can it, because as far as at least half its Jewish citizens are concerned, Palestine is their homeland and Jerusalem is even more than many other places in Palestine theirs. The Palestinians say Israel has again broken its word on settlements, and these particular ones will make it even harder for them to get access to East Jerusalem, which is to be their capital in a final agreement. The Israelis - good lawyers all - say these settlements were planned for the last 7 years and in any case the freeze does not apply to East Jerusalem. Of course they were planned for the last 7 years - we're surprised the Israelis didn't say for the last 30 years. Everyone has plans, and we're sure there is no part of Palestine that Israel does not have a plan, made long ago, to expand into. As for the freeze not applying: why do the Palestinians think they can outsmart the Israelis in any agreement? Why didn't they at Annapolis get out a 1:10,000 map of Palestine and make the Israelis sign on each hectare of land "we aren't going to put up settlements here"? Nothing less would have worked, and by the way, even that would not have worked because the Israelis would have used the excuse of some Palestine bad behavior or the other to say "that agreement is no longer valid". Someone commented sarcastically on our idea that Israel should be recreated in America. "Why not recreate Palestine," this person asked. We'd rather have 5-million Jews migrate to the US because they are westernized and highly educated. Plus there would be more political support for a recreation to save the Jews than there would be to provide a homeland for the Palestinians. But sure, if you think it would work, why not an American homeland for the Palestinians? They are the smartest of all Arab peoples. They'd be a big asset too. Would this stop the Arabs from fighting to the last Palestinian in their war against Israel? If it would, by all means bring over the Palestinians. After all, the US has absorbed something like 40-million Latin Americans over the last two years, upto half of them illegals. if the Latins are an asset to America, legals and illegals alike, why not bring over 3-million Palestinians if that ends the threat of a second holocaust visited on the Jewish people? Aside: Circuit City And What's Wrong With American Business & Why Americans Drive So Many Miles Earlier this year the electronics chain Circuit City fired 3000 of its most experienced sales staff to save money. To show what gems they were, the management "allowed" fired staff to reapply for their jobs at substantially lower wages. Well, at the time there was a lot of adverse comment.  Firing your most experienced people is akin to suicide because Circuit City does not have a monopoly or even dominance in consumer electronics. So service is everything. To no one's surprise, Circuit City has been losing money. Top management people have been abandoning ship in the matter of rats. The CEO's response? Fat retention bonuses to keep key people from skipping. When it was suggested the company might do better to look after its sales staff, the CEO said he needs to keep his hand-pocked management team together. So the question arises, for what? So they can come up with more stupid ideas? Yesterday the editor made a Circuit City foray to pick up a gift. He hates CC because the stores are filthy, and salespeople are not to be found - this is before the 3000 most experienced were fired, and the cashiers seem to think they are doing you a favor by taking your money. The nearest Best Buy, CC's competitor, is an additional 20-km round trip and driving at night has never been your editor's favorite activity. Your editor knew exactly what he wanted, so he risked CC. To cut the story short. Not a salesperson was to be found despite this being the holiday rush. Luckily your editor ran into a former student working as a cashier over the break. She told him which line to get into. Though there were only four people ahead of him, it took him 40-minutes to get to the counter. All this time the person at the desk had been flashing her chewing gum every time she opened her mouth - which was a lot, because she talked a lot. She was ill-groomed, no cat would deign to bring her in. She made faces every time she spoke. At that she was better than the other people at the desk because at least she was working. One gentleman spent the better part of 20 minutes looking for his misplaced bottled water instead of helping customers as presumably he was being paid to. Another CC person would sigh loudly every time she dealt with a customer, then walk to pick up the item slower than even the editor's students on their way to his math class. And so it went. Luckily, the item the editor wanted was right behind his CC person so once he got to the front he was out of there in less than 10-minutes. It should have taken 3-minutes, but he was grateful it did not take 20. As far as the editor is concerned, the sooner CC goes out of business, the better for humanity. Now, readers are going to say: "But that's the power of capitalism: CC does its job badly, so customers will go to Best Buy and the better company will win." In fact, its not that simple. BB is also quite an ordeal, and when you already have to drive 20-km round trip to pick up a small item because there's nothing closer, driving another 20-km is not a welcome option. When Company A is bad, Company B has only to do its job a little bit better. The American service industry loves to save money by cutting sales service to the absolute minimum. Unless you have a lot of money and can afford upscale stores, pretty much everywhere you go you get bad service. Home Depot, where your editor is to be found 20 times a year, is a horror story. Macys, where he goes 5 times a year is another - the sales staff is polite and knowledgeable, but you have to walk and walk to find a staffer. Entire departments stand pristine of people to sell all those nice things. And so on. To sum: the top management of CC will make out like bandits; the share-holders and workers will get the short end. This is not capitalism, this is legalized theft. Incidentally, if non-Americans wonder why American drive so much: the other day your editor was told by the head of all high school math departments in his county that he had to decorate his room to make it "more welcoming". His protests that this was high school and not elementary school were to no avail. To do the decorations in approved style, he needed a particular stationary item. He had to drive fifty kilometers to three different stores before he got the item: apparently since teacher's decorate their rooms in September, the item is not kept in stock year round. Okay, the punch line: the item cost two dollars. His cost, aside from time, was ten dollars - gasoline, depreciation, maintenance. He used four liters of gasoline, and at that he drives a 1.3-liter car. A normal car would have used 5-6, an SUV 7-8. Of course, his cost was not reimbursed: teachers are supposed to do certain things because they love their jobs so much they aren't supposed to worry about crass things like money. More than that, what about the cost the United States - which is to say the taxpayer, which is to say the editor himself - incurred in getting that 4-liters of gas reliably and safely to him? The Washington Post tells a story where citizens asked a soldier returning from Iraq what could they do for him to show their gratitude for what he had done for them. The soldier's reply? "Use less oil." Oh yes, the stationary item the editor picked up. You already guessed it was made in China, didn't you? 0230 GMT December 23, 2007 Turkey Again Launches Air Strikes against rebel Kurds in Northern Iraq. The sorties were flown. No casualties are reported because, say Iraqi authorities, people have fled the are. This did not stop Ankara from issuing a bombastic statement of success in its campaign against the rebels. Good Onya Mate The new Australian Prime Minister visits Afghanistan and reaffirms his country is committed to the war against the Taliban. Australia has 1000 troops in Afghanistan. But with just 5-6 active infantry and mechanized battalions, and with various peacekeeping commitments, Australia can deploy only small numbers of troops to other missions. CBO Estimates True Cost Of Iraq War as $2.7-trillion through 2017. Of this $1.4-trillion is indirect costs, including $220-billion in interest payments to foreigners, $270-billion for oil market disruption, and $870-billion in foregone investment returns, presumably on the direct costs. Because Iraq was a war of choice, counting indirect costs is legitimate. India To Start Work On Iran-Pakistan-India Gas Pipeline in March 2008 barring last minute hitches, reports Associated Press of Pakistan. The US has tried to dissuade India from participating in the pipeline. The problem - as is quite usual with the US - is that Washington has no suggestions on alternatives. India needs the energy, and while it has listened attentively to America's concerns, it has to go ahead. Also, while America denies itself Iranian oil, it can buy oil from a dozen other countries without pushing up the cost of oil - what the US takes up from other exporters, Iran supplies to other importers. India's only non-Iran option is to buy Central Asian gas. That pipeline would have to run across Afghanistan. Right now it would be insane for India - or anyone - to assume that is a realistic option. And, of course, a coastal pipeline from Iran is a much simpler engineering proposition than one across the Hindu Kush. Orbat.com Comment On Israel Will Take Gaza In 2008: Jerusalem Post The newspaper looks at Israel's operations against Hamas as a ladder. The first rung was economic sanctions. The second was the daily strikes inside Gaza. The third, which Israel has begun, is targeted assassinations of Hamas leaders. The fourth, of none of this works to stop the rockets, is to attack Gaza in full force and hunt down Hamas members door-to-door. http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1196847396222&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull The Israeli Foreign Ministry believes that the only way to help Israel's "peace partner" (Austin Powers's quotes ours), President Abbas of Palestine - now president of the West Bank - is to destroy Hamas. The question, JPost says, is what will be the cost. It could be as high as, or higher, than the cost Hezbollah imposed for the 2006 war. The nice thing about being Israeli (or at least the 50% of Israel that believes force is the only option) is that you don't have to learn from your mistakes. Force didn't work against Hezbollah - not that the 50% accept that, they see a glorious victory as opposed to the ignominious defeat the rest of the world see. It hasn't worked against the Palestinians either. But - say the supporters of force - that's because we didn't use enough force. Orbat.com says the Israelis are absolutely incapable of using the force they need to assure their security in Palestine. They will have to kill/expel every single Palestinian to assure security. For obvious reasons even the most rabid Israelis cannot countenance this, if only because the victory could prove pyrrhic.  Israel would stand accused of the worst kind of war crimes, and even Israel's lackey, the United States, would be unable to stop worldwide retaliation against Israel. Now, we are fully cognizant - and have made the point many times - that we do not believe any peaceful concessions will work either, and in this we are with the hardliners. Because we believe there is no solution to this conflict, it being a true zero sum game, we have said its time to consider relocating Israel, most logically to the United States. We should explain why we say it is a zero sum game and why Israelis who say peaceful coexistence with the Arabs is impossible are right. The Jews survived 2000 years of adversity by rejecting, at all costs, integration with the people of the lands they fled to after the ancient land of Israel was cleansed of them. No anthropologists us, but as far as we know there is no other case of an ethnic group maintaining its identity so steadfastly despite the lack of a homeland, for so long. Okay. If the Israelis agree to peaceful coexistance with the Arabs, it will mean the right of return. After all, it is hardly reasonable for Israelis to say: "we have a right of return despite the passage of 1900 years, Arabs don't" and expect Arabs to accept this. If the right of return is granted, Jews in Israel will soon become a minority. And even if Israel denies the right of return but accepts full integration with Arab Israelis already in Israel, higher Arab birthrates and other factors will also lead to eventual minority status. Even if this can be avoided, Jewish identity will be irrevocably diluted if there is any coexistence with anyone. Thus our solution. It would have been best if the west had refused to listen to Jewish dreamers who insisted on a return to the Holy Land and, and had created Israel in Germany. That did not happen. As Israel's chief patron and lackey, it falls on America to solve the problem, and that means an autonomous Jewish state inside America with the US responsible only for defense and foreign affairs. The details someone else can work out. But if anyone in the US thinks the Arabs will simply forget about Palestine and concede it the Israelis because Arabs have gotten nowhere in sixty years, then the Americans are guilty of the worst kind of fantasy. Americans don't have a past. But Arabs, as much as Jews, have a past. And the Arabs are no more willing to forget their past than the Jews. Today the US can stop the Iranians from building N-weapons. But 50 years in the future, will N-weapons even be the issue? What about bioweapons produced by quasi-state groups? What about nanotech weapons? Who will be identify which Arab state is responsible for letting quasi-state groups use their territory so as to identify a clear target for retaliation? And will the threat of retaliation against Arabs deter quasi-state groups from proceeding? We don't think so. 0230 GMT December 22, 2007 Brittany Spears's Sister And The GWOT This should learn us to make flippant remarks: today the editor was ambushed by a highly irate person who had heard about his comment re. Brittany's sister not being news. This is what the person said, summarized: "The age of consent in Louisiana, where Brittany's sister lives, is 17. In California, where her adult boyfriend lives, it is 18. She is not married to this man and age of consent legally applies. Aside from a lot of hypocritical moralizing, no one seems to particularly bother. "When a 17-year old boy in Georgia engaged in a consensual sex act with a 15-year old girl, he was sentenced to a mandatory10-years in jail. The subsequent national outcry led to a change in the state law, but it was not made retroactive. It was only after further protests that the Georgia Supreme Court set him free on the basis the punishment was unusual and cruel.  "You are unusually proud of America for all that you say you are not American. Please explain to me why this 17-year black boy was railroaded, and nothing is being done about a 19-year old white man, and then explain to me why you think America is the greatest country in the world." You've guessed the lady who wanted to seriously bash your editor was African American - and grew up in the South. Her question cannot, obviously be answered because she has a valid point. Your editor lived/worked in an African-American environment for 9 years, and after five years, went back to an African-American/Hispanic school. He is familiar with the argument made by African Americans that the point of the American judicial system seems to be to lock up as many African American males as possible because Anglo men consider them to be a sexual threat. There is no denying that African-Americans are discriminated against in the criminal justice system. For example, why are the penalties for crack cocaine - used primarily by African-Americans - so much more severe than those for powder cocaine - used primarily by Anglos. The thing is, your editor believes that America is less about race than it is about money. The issue is not what percentage of African-Americans get locked up for various offenses compared to Anglos. The issue is what percentage of lower-income people of all races get locked up as compared to well-off people of all races. We have no figures, but we suspect that well-off African-Americans get locked up at far lower rates than poor ones. We suspect the same applies to the poor/well-off divide of all races. Be that as it may, we wanted to take this opportunity to warn our American readers they will be surprised how much of the world is familiar with purely American issues such as the Georgia boy and will soon be talking about the different treatment being accorded to Brittany's sister's boyfriend. Americans don't generally read the foreign press. If they did they would soon realize the entire rest of the world is ready to gleefully pounce on such stories to "prove" their point that America is double-faced. The GWOT is a war of ideologies. The elites of almost all countries are fluent in English and are exposed to the American media. They in turn can influence the "woman on the street". It can be argued that for America to win the GWOT it needs to truly bring liberty and justice to all at home as much as it needs to kill fundamentalists. 0230 GMT December 21, 2007 We are hard pressed for news this morning. We don't think the news that Brittany Spears' minor sister has become pregnant is news. Apparently the American media disagree. Regardless, we are sure the high-minded media will figure out how to use the story to sell more copies/clicks. Zimbabwe Issues New Bank Notes says the Associated Press. The denominations are Z$250,000; 500,000; and 750,000. Not that this does much good. Citizens are limited to bank withdrawals of Z$5-million a day. AP says that money is about enough for a take-out hamburger. By the way, last year the government cut three zeroes from its currency. The new $Z250,000 note is actually $Z250-million in last year's money. Meanwhile, President Mugabe, otherwise known as the Thug of Africa, is set to become Leader for Life. This doesn't seem to bother African leaders. Doubtless it's all the white man's fault, somewhere, somehow, somewhen. China, India Army Troops In Joint Exercise 100 CI troops from India are in China for a joint exercise with a similar number of PLA troops. Chinese and Indian troops exercising together? Juggling apples with bananas makes more sense. [We thank 9-year old Layla, who we met at a friend's house, and who is a juggler, for the expression.] [Talking about kids: the editor and his youngest, then four, were watching the PBS TV news announcing that India's former prime minister had been killed by a Sri Lankan LTTE suicide bomber. After the TV was switched off, the youngster said: "So our leader has been killed." Your editor was no fan of Rajiv Gandhi, but you had to feel bad for the man's family. So he morosely said "Yes." Said the youngster: "But India needs a leader. We must put up a statue of Rajiv to worship."  What the youngster said will make perfect sense only if you are familiar with the Indian addiction to the Nehru family. Three generations of Nehrus ruled as India's prime ministers for all except 2-3 years of independent India's first 45 years. Now Rajiv's widow is the power behind the current government. She was slated to become head of the government but wisely decided that because she is a foreigner, she would be too divisive. She is grooming her son for future prime minister. This is a big mistake. Her son is the same sort of amiable duffer as his father. The real heir should be her daughter. We suppose, however, that Italian moms feel the same about their sons as Indian moms Swat Mullah Back At It Okay, so we're not going to criticize the Pakistan Army over this, after all, how many times did the US military tell us the insurgents in Iraq have been defeated. Nonetheless, it's definitely embarrassing that just days after Pakistan said it has Swat back under control, the insurgent mullah is back on his radio station. This time he threatens anyone standing for elections scheduled for next month. He will have none of "English" laws, he says, Sharia must prevail. Jang of Pakistan says the mullah's men have already walked into the house of one candidate and told him to forget about elections. The mullah also gave the Pakistan Army an ultimatum to quit Swat, or he will resume action against the army. 0230 GMT December 20, 2007 Energy Good News: First Near Zero Emissions power plant is to be built in Illinois. The plant will burn coal to produce hydrogen, which will be burned to power the plant's 275-MW turbines. ~ 1 million tons of CO2 will be sequestered annually. Construction of the ~$1-billion plant will start in 2009 for 2012 completion.  The US government is putting up two-thirds of the money. The plant is for demonstration purposes; accordingly, the cost - near $4000/KW  - is more typical of N-power plants, but of course the price will fall as the technology develops. India and ROK joined the US as partners in the project in 2006. It's unlikely that large-scale construction of zero/near zero emissions plants will begin till the early 2020s, but at least we are on our way. More Energy Good News: Fuel Economy Standards have been raised to 35-mpg by 2020 from the current 26-mpg. How likely is the estimate this will save 1.1-million bbl/day of oil? US currently uses about 9-million bbl/day motor gasoline . If half - at a guess - is for passenger cars, a 40% increase in fuel efficiency will save 1.8-million bbl/day. But the US population will be ~15% larger by 2020. So use will be 3-million bbl/day. That gives a savings of 1.5-million bbl/day; assuming that the number of cars per capita increases and/or driving mileage increases, 1.1-million bbl/day is probably reasonable.         Good News From Iraq: Kurds Agree To Defer Kirkuk referendum for six months. Washington Post says this is thanks to extensive negotiations by the US and the UN. The referendum is almost certainly to demand putting Kirkuk in Kurdistan, and this move could lead to a full scale Turkish invasion ostensibly to protect Turkoman interests. The Stupidest News From Iraq  we have heard in 4 1/2 years is the reaction of some US analysts to an Iraq survey, commissioned by the US military, which has every ethnic group blaming the US for Iraq instability. This has analysts beaming. The Washington Post has the analysts saying, in effect, "see, they all agree on something, and this augers well for stability when we withdraw." Our first impulse was that regular beatings with limp noodles is too good for these analysts. After all, noodles - limp or otherwise - have their dignity. Why insult the noodles, then? What these analysts are saying is "our big achievement is we have managed to get all Iraqis to hate us because we destroyed the stability of their country. So there is hope for a further achievement, which is stability, when we withdraw." Mon, may we suggest if this is your analysis, please withdraw NOW. Don't spend another day now that you have so clearly identified the US occupation as the problem.  And let's not forget the irony: the British have been repeatedly bashed by the Americans for saying their occupation of Basra was primarily responsible for instability there, so they are withdrawing. so in fairness, the Americans now need to bash themselves. Just about every non-American with any knowledge of Iraq has said the main reason for the chaos is the occupation. And to add insult to injury the US says it has to stay on to assure stability?  How is the US going to stay Number 1 in the world with this kind of confused thinking? Opinion: Bangladesh And India We decided to read a couple of Bangladesh military forums while updating Concise World Armies 2008 for additional information/clues. We were utterly amazed at the vitriol against India in the postings - and we read some Indian postings on other forums that were no better. Okay, we understand that Bangladesh as a small country feels threatened by India if only because of the latter's sheer size and security imperatives. But what is the need for the Indians to react with an equal degree of anger and hatred? America is hardly popular among many Canadians and Mexicans. But by and large Americans understand why this is so and ignore attacks on their country. The bigger brother has to make twice the effort toward forbearance and understanding. None of this is to ignore the very real - and steadily increasing - danger posed to India by the rise of fundamentalists in Bangladesh. Yet, we feel Indians should be the first to appreciate the Bangladeshis are equally victims of these people. Indians of all people should understand all the Bangalis want is respect. After all, does not India want respect from the western nations? On the other side, there is no need for Bangladeshis to talk grandiosely about cutting the Siliguri Corridor and punishing India for its imperialist designs on Bangladesh. Absolutely the last thing the Indians want is to take over Bangladesh. The Indians have enough problems of their own. So come on people on both sides: calm down. We are all South Asians with a common heritage and common interests. Bengali regiments were the backbone of the Indian resistance in its 1857-59 war for independence from the British. Bengali freedom fighters were key to the non-violent resistance that eventually won India its freedom. Bengali culture is so rich it is impossible to imagine India without the Bengalis. And the largest number of Bengalis living outside Bangladesh, by far, live in India's West Bengal. The cynical British division of Bengal in 1905 fractured the lives of all Bengalis - and continues to do so 100 years later. There is no need for people five generations on to add to the schism. 0230 GMT December 19, 2007 Kongo Intercepts Missile reader Jose Tejada tells us, sending a link to a Bloomberg report. This is the first attempt by a Japanese warship to make an interception. The Kongo operated as part of a joint Japan-US effort, with a US Navy Aegis cruiser  apparently doing the tracking and providing data that was handed off to the Kongo for the shoot. Turkey Sends 300 Troops Into Iraqi Kurdistan and says it withdrew them after killing some Kurdish separatists. The day before yesterday Turkey also send "upto" 50 aircraft into Iraqi Kurdistan to attack claimed rebel targets; rebels say one civilian was killed. Meanwhile, the president of Iraq Kurdistan refused to keep a scheduled meeting with the US Secretary of State as a protest against US cooperation with the Turkey air strike. Apparently the US not just cleared the attackers through Iraq air space, it also provided targeting information. There is no indication the US obtained Baghdad's permission, but obviously for all the talk about Iraqi sovereignty, Iraqis have as much sovereignty as the good citizens of Washington DC, which is to say zero. There Is Justice In This World: Zuma Wins ANC Presidency and appears set to become South Africa's next president. This will end the Mbeki era. That gentleman, aside from botching up as much as possible of his country's attempts to reduce poverty, will be infamous for his inane AIDs policies and his protection of Zimbabwe's nasty little dictator. Of course, while Mr. Zuma has promised drastic change - which is why he won the leadership - we have to wait and see what he does on Zimbabwe. It must also be said that the keeper of South Africa's ethical values, Bishop Desmond Tutu, has according to BBC said that neither Mr. Mbkei nor Mr. Zuma are fit to lead the country. We acknowledge Bishop Tutu is quite political and therefore not entirely neutral; nonetheless, his refusal to endorse Mr. Zuma is like withholding the Good Housekeeping seal. Another Fact That Causes US To Yawn We are no fans of the US training efforts regarding the Iraq Army because we believe the US is going about the whole thing in ways that are wrong, unproductive, and destructive of the goal of a strong, independent Iraq Army. Nonetheless, fairness requires us to comment on the figure of 17% annual personnel losses due to desertions and casualties. Given all the sectarian turmoil in Iraq, and given that men volunteer for service believing they will see duty in their home areas, and given that many men are likely still volunteering simply to get military training before they desert to their militias, and given that economic desperation is a big motivator for men who first join and then discover they cannot hack army life, and given that the soldiers' families are at risk at home as well as face many difficulties when the men are away, an annual one in six loss rate is quite reasonable. We believe the US is actually doing a good job of keeping men in the service. You cannot compare Iraqi desertion rates to those for stable countries. Afghanistan Army has experienced comparable desertion rates. Bar the sectarian violence and getting free training for the militias, which are not reasons for Afghan desertions, all the other reasons are common. Also please note there are no consequences for deserting. It's not like the US, where deserters are hunted down, or like the old Iraq Army where if you were caught you could be executed or at the very minimum very severely punished. In our personal opinion, if US Army recruits could simply walk away when they found the military not to their liking, you would see a fairly high US desertion rate. This is likely true of any army. Being in any army is no joke, and being in an army at war is even less of a joke. 0230 GMT December 18, 2007 Iraq Attacks Drop To 2004 Level Excellent news, now can we please get some brigades out of Iraq and into Afghanistan? The Americans qualify the improvement by saying its possible all sides are simply waiting for the Americans to leave before resuming their killing, and this seems likely. But so what? If the Americans disappoint the bloodthirsty thugs of all factions by hanging around, you can bet the violence will start up again - directed at the Americans. Of all the reasons that violence may have gone down, the most unlikely one is that the Iraqis are now reconciled to an American presence and are saying "the Americans are here forever, we may as well get along." DJ Eliot at www.longwarjournal.org wants to remind people that there are now 4 Iraqi Army brigades in Basra Province. He believes they are on the main well-trained and their presence should help in stabilizing Basra. Please read his article for yourself. Your editor freely admits that the last time he went to Iraq was 1969, which is thirty eight years ago. The longwarjournal team spends much time in Iraq. But we at Orbat.com are not without resources. In our opinion, based on our discussion with people who have first-hand knowledge of Iraq, what will happen in Basra is that the forms of violence will change now that the British have left and the Iraqis are in charge. But violence will continue The Administration Figures Out Where Afghanistan Is and that things are not going well. So President Bush is to have regular conferences with Afghan President Hamid Karzai. Presumably this personal attention by the admittedly very charming Mr. Bush will take the President's mind off the steady advance of the Taliban who now have their eyes on his capital. Meanwhile, if we go by the report in December 17th's Washington Post, the new focus on Afghanistan is nothing more than FAAU - Futzing Around As Usual, with rivers of words substituting for a trickle of action. People are talking about reorganizing the command. Goodness gracious, how bold! We are sure the Taliban are trembling in their pink bunny slippers. Then someone says that the 3 battalions being requested is not going to be enough, yet another three battalions are needed. We are astonished at the acuteness these people dusplay?. Ever occur to anyone that if the west sends in two more brigades in 2008, the Taliban, which has an endless source of recruits from Pakistan, money from Saudi, and more money from opium, is going to use the additional buildup to motivate more people to join? To win a war, you have to overwhelm the adversary, giving him no opportunity to adapt to your increased pressure. Hey, Washington, anyone remember Vietnam? We thought you all had vowed there would never be another Vietnam. But Best and Brightest Version 2, what do you think you have in Afghanistan? Every time the US send more troops into Vietnam the communists escalated. If those troops had been sent at the start, the communists would have lost the ability to counter. Our bad! We forgot the Best and Brightest Version 2 didn't serve in Vietnam because they had other plans. But does anyone remember Iraq? That is only 4 1/2 years ago, which even for the Attention Deficit Boomer generation cant be that long ago? Remember what happened when the US went in with inadequate troops? No? Okay, how about the movie "Clueless on the Potomac"? You can't have forgotten that because it's playing right now and you all are acting in it. Japan To Test ABM on Monday December 17, says reader Jose Tejada, forwarding an link from the International Herald Tribune http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/12/16/america/NA-GEN-US-Missile-Defense-Japan.php The Japanese missile destroyer Kongo will use a Standard 3 to intercept a simulated DPRK Nodong launched from the Pacific Missile Range. The US Aegis cruiser Lake Erie will track the missile and provide data for the Kongo. The article says that Japan as yet does not have sufficient Standard 3s to make a difference, but it is acquiring them, and the test is an important step in the joint US-Japan ABM defenses. As of 0230 GMT Tuesday we say no mention of the test's outcome in Japan's Asahi Shinbun. Reader George Fescos asks if we have considered a PayPal "Donate to Orbat.com" button? A good idea, we're not sure how well it would work though. From what a couple of other people tell us, it's not worth the trouble. Our problem is that though we get 1.2-million page views a month we haven't been able to persuade the three or so ad agencies we've approached to take us up. The Web Version 2 is about free content, and ads are the only way that can be done if Orbat.com is not making enough money to subsidize America Goes To War. which it is not. 0230 GMT December 17, 2007 Russia Threat Over Czech-based ABM Russia says that a missile launch from the proposed US ABM site in the Czech Republic could trigger Russia's "automatic" retaliatory system. The Russians do not have their N-force set on automatic and nor did they ever do so, for the obvious and good reason a false positive by their radars would lead to nuclear doomsday. So making this threat is quite stupid. If people believe the Russians are on automatic, this will alarm the heck out of everyone because it makes the Russians look completely irresponsible and not to be trusted. If they don't believe it, Russia shows itself as weak by blustering. Further, the Russians are saying if the Europeans protect themselves against Iranian and potential rogue states, the Europeans could ignite an N-war. No one can be expected to accept so absurd a proposition, and the Czechs expectedly told the Russians it wasn't their business. But let's look at the Russian position for a moment Agreed that it is not the west's business to assuage the famous Russian paranoia that can border on the psychotic. But we have the US determined to build a missile shield to protect west Europe from Iranian missiles, and has anyone in west Europe asked the US to do so? We don't think anyone has. It can then be argued that it isn't the US's business to care more for west Europe's security than the west Europeans care. If west Europe is so worried about Iranian missiles, why aren't they being located in Germany, for example? why have the Germans been making all sorts of noises against the proposed US deployment? So in this case it may not be entirely unreasonable for the Russians to believe the system is designed to protect against them. It is entirely reasonable for the US to say "Russian missiles are a threat to the US, and we are entitled to build defenses against them wherever we feel neccessary." But then let the US say so and not make Iran the excuse. Interestingly, the Russians have had little to say about the deployment of ABM interceptors on American soil. Alaska is already slated to have 40 missiles, far more than the 10 proposed for the Czech Republic. The US has said the missiles defend against DPRK, though obviously the system, which includes many other types of missiles and platforms, could also be used to defend against Russian launches from the Far East. Musa Qala Faces "Almost Daily" Taliban Rocket Attacks says the BBC. The Taliban have been forced out of the town, but they have not been defeated. Yesterday an Afghan Army patrol killed 4 insurgents in a firefight near the town. Some In Washington Getting Irate About Israel's constant attacks on the recent Iran NIE, we are told. Israel's credibility is zero since the Iraq WMD fiasco in which Israel fed wrong information to the US. Okay, that's fair enough, anyone stupid enough to buy Israeli "intelligence" on anything that affects Israeli security deserve all the pain they get. Why should anyone be surprised that Israel systematically misuses intelligence for its purposes? After all, the Israelis have learned how to do so at the feet of the masters, the Americans. The US has every right to reject Israeli pressure on the Americans to scuttle the NIE. The report was so unexpected that the Israeli lobby is only now getting organized. You are going to see massive and sustained Israeli pressure on Washington because the NIE deep-sixed Israel's beautiful dream of the Americans doing Israel's work by taking out the Iranian N-program. But the Israelis have every right to use worst-case analysis. They are not arguing there is definitive proof Iran has stopped development of N-weapons. They are saying the stakes are too high to permit of mistakes, and that the proof Washington wants may come too late. That's fine, but to the Israelis we have to say, "look, the US cost-benefit calculus on taking out Iran's N-weapons capability shows the costs for the US far exceed the benefits. It is your right to look out for your interests. Equally, it is America's right to look after its own interests. This may hurt your feelings, but it is not in the US's interests to look after Israeli interests at the cost of its own." 230 GMT December 16, 2007 We did not update on December 15 as the editor had two final exam papers due on the same day. Then he went into his usual existential funk about what was the point maintaining the blog when the time is better spent on maintaining the orbat part of the site. Having gloomily decided there was, indeed, no point to the blog, the editor has returned to the job. Russia, We Love You For us Cold War types, the fall of the Soviet Union was the biggest disaster of our lifetimes. Victory was wonderful, but we were rendered irrelevant. But thanks to President Putin and Russia's rapid natural resource fueled growth, the Russians have begun a drive to remake their old empire. It took them perhaps six centuries to reach their zenith - 1945; but only 45 more years to collapse to collapse so badly that even Ukraine, which was part of Russia for 400 years, was lost. It's difficult to forecast where the world will be in 50 years, leave alone in 100 years. If America pulls itself together and resumes its drive to consolidate/expand its world empire, we can reasonably predict into the next 50-100 years. If not, it's conceivable that the next Russian empire could arise. Be that as it may, the editor is are deeply, deeply grateful to President Putin and the Russians for starting on reversing Russia's decline because if anything can force the west out of its consumer goods consumption induced drug haze, it is Russia rising. The editor believes armies and war are good - providing the wars are kept within reason, of course. Why are they good? Take the forest as an analogy. Protect a forest from fire, and it flourishes. But then it declines because vegetation inimical to its health takes over. Fire badly damages forests. But it clears the ground and thins the vegetation, permitting healthy growth and regeneration. Fire in the forest is good. So it is with societies. Prolonged peace leads to degeneracy. This is most evident in the west, which is most along the path of individual gratification taking primacy over everything else. So extreme is this degeneration that the west cannot make the sacrifices neccessary to fight just wars, such as Afghanistan and many parts of Africa. Another example: Space exploration, which is so neccessary for the future of humankind, has slowed to a crawl. Another example: you can count the number of mega-construction projects underway on the fingers of one hand. True people are concerned about ecological damage, but no one seems to work on how to limit the environmental damage while still proceeding with mega-projects. It suffices today to simply say "no".  Nor does anyone undertake mega-projects to protect/restore the environment, such as reforesting the world. Another example: the US is so far along the path to individual gratification that its physical infrastructure is collapsing. Ironic because it's the same infrastructure - such as the National Interstate Highway system that made America so prosperous in the first place. To the average American, it does not matter. All that matters is that s/he get her/his hourly fix of gratification, be it the drug of TV, I-pods, computer games, or Starbucks coffee, to name a few. Let us name a specific case. The editor goes to his local YMCA to exercise. But increasingly people come to the YMCA to pamper themselves while they pretend to exercise. They will do ten repetitions of an exercise and then spend five times as much time pampering themselves by adjusting their nice clothing, sipping water, fiddling with their I-pod, and stretching before the next ten reps. In the editor's youth in America, a body covered with sweat as the result of exertion was considered a sign of manliness and proof of effort. But should anyone in the editor's Y have the bad taste to actually sweat, leave alone become drenched in sweat, other members are repulsed. This is a small thing in a small place, but it is a symptom. War, and even  the preparation of war, requires sacrifice, dedication, and selflessness. These are qualities to be encouraged. Of course, these days because of N-weapons you don't want war to get beyond a certain point. But if you are basically absorbed in yourself, then you have no incentive to arm, to drill, to fight. The incentive comes only when the other gal or guy starts threatening to thrash you, or actually does thrash you. The you come out of your coma fast and fight because you have to. That is where President Putin and Russia come in. Russia is a traditional threat for the west, so any moves to rearm are immediately noticed. This is not true - for the west - in the case of China. PRC can happily keep arming and the west barely notices. We assume the Japanese, who are western, do notice but that doesn't vitiate our generalization. So far Russia is doing things that are symbolic rather than with actual threat potential because it is coming out of a period where its military couldn't field three full-strength divisions or keep a naval squadron on permanent station even on its immediate periphery. 2007s bomber flights served only to bemuse the west and to give a very limited working test to the its air defenses. So Russia has developed a new ICBM and will buy six every year. Big yawn: this was a country that fielded 100 ICBMs a year. The enormous buffer now created between the core of the west and Russia also serves to dampen anxiety. But if Russia can keep its military buildup going and keep escalating the pressure it is bringing on the now independent members of its former empire, there is going to come a point where the Americans, at least, are going to say: wait a minute, may be we'd better strengthen US Army Europe to two dedicated divisions and may be we'd better build another two carriers and may be we should add two more F-22 wings, and maybe we'd better add two more ABM battalions. Yes, we are a long way from that point, and when we do get there, the citizens of the west will fight like heck to stop their governments from reacting because they don't want to be pulled out of their self-gratification coma. It will take some big move like the reunification of Belarus and Ukraine with Russia, or an actual use of force to further the new Russian empire before there is the sort of very modest reaction we describe above. But that is why we wish President Putin - and his successors, who we hope will be equally ruthless in advancing Russia's interests - all the very best for 2008 and on. 0230 GMT December 14, 2007 India to deploy 2-Tier ABM system in 2010... ...reports Press Trust of India. A full-scale test is scheduled for mid-2008. We were at first unsure of what to make of this news. ABM systems are the most complex of all weapons and we are skeptical India is anywhere near mastering the technology, particularly given the pathetically small amounts it spends on defense R and D. Then it occurred to us what the Indians are probably talking about is an Indo-Israeli ABM system with N-warheads on the interceptors. This would make a workable ABM system feasible. The indigenously developed Akash SAM was tested the other day with a dummy N-warhead. India is working on two missiles: a 15-km interceptor and an 80-km interceptor. The long-range interceptor is said to have intercepted a Prithvi tactical SSM at 78-km, and a December 7 test also hit a Prithvi, at 15-km. The short-range interceptor is probably to be the extended version of the Israeli Barak 10-km SAM which India has purchased for 6 warships after the failure of its command-guidance Trishul. The extended Barak is rumored to be in the 50-km range. India has invested $350-million in Israeli R and D, but we dont know if this is also tied up with the Israeli Arrow. The Arrow would, of course make the perfect long-range interceptor. The US has to approve the sale because Arrow - for all the Israelis like to say is their missile - is a joint effort with the US. Earlier the US had reservations about okaying Arrow. Right now things are likely to be different because the US-India have been exceptionally cozy. India has already installed the Israeli Green Pine radar that goes with the Arrow. ROK is to buy 36 Arrow 2 missiles and 6 Green Pine radars. This means that the US is loosening its restrictions on Arrow export. If India puts low-yield N-warheads on its missile interceptors, then we could see a reasonable defense. Our own estimate for a reliable ABM warhead is 2020. India Rejects Mutual Assured Destruction Whatever the difficulties, we congratulate the Indians for refusing to accept the insane MAD doctrine propagated by the US. We've said this before, but those who put the MAD regime into place were guilty of the most heinous crime against the American people in all their history. Leaving your civilian population vulnerable to casualties in the 100-150 million range just to show the other side you have everything to lose by striking first is criminal. The issue is not if Nike-X or Spartan or safeguard or whatever would have worked perfectly. The issue is that it is a state's legal/moral responsibility to protect its citizens. The US should have deployed every possible offensive/defensive/passive N-defense system. After all, the Swiss provided deep N-shelters for every single citizen. Why could not the US have done the same? Is it better to risk the loss of 80% of your population if something goes wrong than to try everything you can to save as many as possible? We are not going to enter into the larger question of the US's responsibility for the N-arms race because that is a complicated issue, though of course we agree it would have been better to make ABM/civil defense etc irrelevant by doing everything to avoid deploying N-weapons. If you look back to the 1950s and 1960s, you will see the same factors at work as have gotten the US into a mess in Iraq, the absolute refusal to make the sacrifices needed to deploy sufficient manpower for its defense needs. If the US had been willing to station 10 divisions in Germany with another 10 as immediate reinforcements there would have been no need to get into the completely nutzoid tactical and strategic N-buildup. As for the pathetic European conventional defense efforts which were so feeble that without recourse to N-weapons no defense was possible, the less said the better. The same thing is happening again. Neither the US nor the west is willing to build the needed conventional armies. And the threats of today cannot be countered with Massive Retaliation, MAD, or any N-weapons. There are no shortcuts. Indian Troops for Afghanistan/Iraq: New Information Today we learned something from an Indian journalist visiting town that we did not know. It's unsurprising we didn't know because your editor has not been in India in 17 years and in any case was/is interested only in hard defense matters. Anyway, apparently India did offer the US troops for Afghanistan. There was wide political support for the deployment. The US said "thanks, let us clear this with Pakistan". Obviously Pakistan was not going to agree. The Indians were so angry that the US was making their offer hostage to Pakistan that when the Americans asked for troops for Iraq, whereas at first the government was inclined to agree, an enormous backlash built up. So India told the US "when we offered for Afghanistan you said 'thanks but no thanks'; now you ask for Iraq, and we say 'thanks but no thanks'". 0230 GMT December 13, 2007 Russia: Back To The Prime Minister Putin Scenario Mr. Putin's crown prince who will take over as President has said the King should be prime minister. The crown prince is a complete Putin loyalist, and this scenario had been discussed many times. If Mr. Putin accepts, the assumption is after a decent interval the new President will resign and Mr. Putin will be reelected - only a third consecutive term is barred. At that point President Putin will invite the ex-Prez to be Prime Minister and when Mr. Putin gets tired of the job he will hand off to his protege. Incidentally, there are allegations being made that Mr. Putin controls $40-billion worth of shares in Russian energy and other companies. Apparently he has not bothered to comment. It is also being said that only Mr. Putin is capable of controlling the powerful Russian factions who might otherwise cause chaos in their unbridled pursuit of power.. For our own reasons we're a bit skeptical of the $40-billion thin, but we have no trouble believing Mr. Putin alone can keep Russia's factions together at this time. Of course, others say that Mr. Putin is not the solution but the problem. If Russia is seeing factions fighting each other it is because he has subverted the development of democratic institutions. These would normally provide legitimate channels to express, negotiate, and resolve political differences. Poor Lebanon Suffers Another Blow First, the matter of making the current army chief the next president which last week seemed concluded is still in abeyance. Parliament is now to try and resolve the matter on December 18. Worse, the general thought likely to succeed the army chief has been murdered. He had earlier led the assault on the Palestinian refugee camp outside Tripoli, an operation which gained the army the gratitude of this violence-tormented nation. Israeli Defense Forces Chief Says Ground Control Needed if the rocket menace from Gaza is to be eliminated, says Jerusalem Post. He said there is a limit to what air strikes and targeted ground attacks can achieve. His comments came after the Cabinet ruled out expanding the current Gaza operation into a major offensive. But, he warns, occupation has to be a last resort and Israel needs to carefully figure out what it will do the day after occupation is achieved. For all the noise Israel makes about the rockets, we were amazed to learn that only five Israelis have been killed by rocket/mortar fire this year. Israeli counter-action has probably killed hundreds on the Palestinian side, including a number of civilians. But Israel seems to (a) be in a complete funk about the threat, and (b) insane with fury it cannot do anything to stop the launchings despite some of the harshest collective punishment on Gaza Israel has ever imposed, and a non-stop series of assassinations and attacks on launcher sites and crews. On Wednesday, while an anti-launcher operation inside Gaza was in progress, Hamas et. al got off 20 rockets. This Israeli general speaks complete sense. If the Israelis cannot stomach reoccupation of Gaza - and they pulled out in the first place because they could not bear the financial and psychological costs - then they must put up with the launches and continue as they are doing. Of course, each time they kill a bunch of Palestinians, guilty or innocent, they give the Palestinians one more reason to go on fighting. Its easy for people to say "Israel must negotiate", but no matter what concessions it makes, enough Palestinians believe they are in a zero-sum game - either Israel dies or Palestine cannot live - to render irrelevant any concessions. It takes only 1% of a population to keep a war like this one going, and to intimidate those who want peace. Looking at things from the Israeli side, we agree with those Israelis who say there should be no concessions. The US needs to learn a lesson from Israel-Palestine. This is sectarian violence just the same way Iraq is sectarian violence. The Israel-Palestine conflict in 2008 enters its 61st year and there is no resolution. If the US thinks it can bring Iraqi sectarian violence under control in one year or five or ten or twenty or fifty, it is simply dreaming. The Israelis, at least, are fighting for their existence as a country. What the US is fighting for is a great mystery. Reader Jose Tejeda should have been credited with bringing to our attention the item about new Al Qaeda fighters under training. Apologies. 0230 GMT December 12, 2007 Congo Army Offensive In Ruins There is a Congo general who has been resisting integration of his faction's troops into the Congo Army. He operates in the northeast, and in the tradition of Congo generals, is a jolly chap who uses large numbers of child soldiers and kills civilians simply to show the populace who is boss. We need not mention the usual looting, burning, raping and so on. Well, by and large all the former Congo civil war factions have disbanded their armies and gone into the new army. So the Congo government decided this gentleman needed to be taken out. So it carefully planned a big offensive. The UN, which deploys troops in the area for protection of civilians, helped with logistics. So at first the Congo Army advanced and the rebels looked like they were going to be beat. But this general is made of sterner stuff. He has counterattacked and appears to have routed the Congo Army. He is now approaching UN positions. The UN says it will fight to stop him if he doesn't stop himself. We doubt very much he will risk action against the UN. But that the government's name is mud right now is an unavoidable conclusion. How Did The Taliban Escape Musa Qila? Here is a mystery. After being surrounded by Afghan/Coalition forces - an Afghan brigade, a US parachute battalion, a UK brigade, Danish troops, and Special Forces contingents, plus complete allied control of the air 24/7 - several hundred Taliban simply got into their pickups and left town. If you look at the nice map the BBC has provided http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7138568.stm#map you will see there is not exactly a whole lot of roads or room for vehicle convoys to just vanish. The BBC report says the Taliban withdrew on Monday. That is after the noose was tightened. Can someone explain what happened? Meanwhile, read http://comment.independent.co.uk/leading_articles/article3244675.ece to appreciate the British approach to Afghanistan is quite different from the US's. How this acute difference in approach between the two major western partners is going to play out in terms of strategy and tactics is unclear to us at this point. New Al-Qaeda Fighters Under Training says India's national security advisor. He says Indian intelligence has identified recruits from 14 countries in training at new camps on the Afghan-Pakistan border. He says the fighters will attack Gulf infrastructure and senior political figures. Their training is "extremely vigorous". US Elections 2008 We give this assessment from a trusted Washington insider who has a track record of correct forecasts: Mrs. Clinton will be nominated and will win the US presidency. Okay, we said, what about all the reports that say people are having doubts about Mrs. Clinton for various reasons and that she is losing ground and so on? "Media attempts to sell their irrelevant, discredited news/analysis," says our source. Wait a minute, you say: we thought the editor didn't know any Washington insiders. Well, perhaps we haven't been clear about this. The editor knows a great many. But he doesn't get out much as work/Orbat.com/gym/projects around the house take up all his time. But once in a great while he will haul his sorry carcass into town and once in a great while someone will drop in. Israel Makes Yet Another Gaza Foray This is hardly worth reporting. Its akin to saying "the sun rose today". Anyway, a major push is underway by mechanized units. The objective is to shut down the Kassim rocket launches. we are unable to get any sense from Jerusalem Post or Haartez of the numbers of Israeli troops involved. 0230 GMT December 11, 2007 Our Personal View On Iran's N-Ambitions First, we believe that making N-weapons is a lot harder than the media and "experts" would have us believe. This applies both to obtaining fissile material and fabricating warheads. Second, we believe the U-235/centrifuge route is the worst approach for any but a power of the highest technological development. Third, we believe that plutonium is the way to go both because building a primitive Pu production reactor and reprocessing are much easier than other technologies. That leaves the fabrication part which will remain a major hurdle. Given the threats Iran faces, we believe Teheran will be foolish if it ends its N-program. We believe that all that has happened is that Teheran has realized there is no sense in acting defiant and suffering the consequences when it does not as yet have an N-weapons program to protect. It is still building up the various blocks for its first weapons, so it might as well make nice till it can reach breakout. We believe Iran will not have N-weapons before 2015. We base our beliefs on our own information, investigation, and analysis. It's nice to have some of our beliefs confirmed by the US NIE, but frankly we aren't interested in the NIE. We have not bothered to read anything about it except what appeared in the Washington Post because it was immediately apparent that the NIE is so heavily hedged it is of no use to us. Doubtless it is of use to those who are not aware or informed about Iran's program. The stuff that would be interesting to know - such as actual engineering performance of Iran's U235 cascades - is not going to be released to the public. So to those who are rejoicing in the NIE or attacking the NIE, we say only "knock yourselves out, folks." Have fun. But for the sake of your own dignity and credibility, try and understand the NIE is simply a snapshot in time, based on a consensus among 16 US intel agencies, on information available. As far as we are concerned, it's pointless either to accept the NIE or reject it without understanding what it is really saying. And so far we don't see any evidence in the media that the "experts" have understood what the NIE is really saying. News Afghan Troops Inside Musa Qala but fighting is still going on despite the Taliban's announcement they are withdrawing to spare civilians. Times London speculates the remaining fighters may be looking for martyrdom. From the very low Taliban dead figures we are seeing - well below 100 as far as we can tell - it is apparent the Taliban left the town before the Coalition operation began. longwarjournal.org quotes the Taliban is saying they had 2000 fighters inside the town. Likely this is part hyperbole. NATO says it is prepared to garrison the town and start reconstruction. All well and good, and we'll believe it when we see it. A stay of 6, 12, 18, 24 months will not do. Kremlin Succession President Putin has confounded the experts. Best readers look at http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article3031639.ece themselves. Simple people like ourselves can't be expected to understand Russian politics when even Russians cannot understand Russian politics. 0230 GMT December 10, 2007 From K.G. Widmerpool on Qila Musa I'm not sure we should discount altogether this weekend's assault on Musa Qala.  It's quite a big offensive (for the Afghan front), involving units ranging from 40 Commando Royal Marines to the former Green Howards (2nd Bn The Yorkshire Regiment) to the US Task Force Fury (principally 4th brigade of the 82nd Airborne).  According to -The Telegraph-: 'More British forces are being used in this action than in any other battle in Afghanistan: anything up to 3,000 of the total force of 7,000 in the country...'http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;?xml=/news/2007/12/09/wafg209.xml Also see http://observer.guardian.co.uk/world/story/0,,2224623,00.html Some effort has been made to interdict Taleban escape routes.  The initial assault comprised hundreds of US paratroopers being inserted by helicopter at night.  British and ANA troops advanced on the town from three directions to set up a perimeter and have 'blocked' all access points including bridges and river crossings.  It is thought some of the Taleban will stand and fight, owing to the symbolic importance of the town.  They have fortified the town with minefields and emplaced anti-aircraft guns on the high ground.  There is just 'one road in and one road out'.  Some of the defensive features of the battlefield may actually help to restrict Taleban withdrawal options whilst Nato forces obviously have the advantage of air mobility as well as the mechanised recce capability of the Household Cavalry. In many ways, Musa Qala is the Fallujah of Afghanistan.  An obviously doomed agreement was negotiated between Western and local inhabitants which inevitably resulted in the takeover of the town by extremist elements who then used it openly as a base of operations.  Western forces must now undertake a major operation to retake the town, which will probably yield significant collateral damage in urban combat.  As in Fallujah, the offensive is also seen as a big test for indigenous allied forces (the ANA).  I don't know if the battle will play a decisive strategic role in the fate of Afghanistan, but I don't think we should squander an opportunity to encircle and destroy several hundred enemies of Western civilisation. Editor's Comment It is heartening to see the ANA at work. US/NATO have been very patient in building up the ANA and the results are good, whereas in Iraq US has been rushing around madly and getting just about nowhere. There is a sound realization among the Coalition that the ANA will need another 10-15 years to develop properly. We have no doubt the Taliban will be defeated at Qila Musa. They have been defeated in each and every battle. The problem will start after the battle. In almost every case in Afghanistan, because of the shortage of troops, there is no one to hold. The Taliban lose little time in returning. Now, if the ANA has advanced to the point that at least one battalion and preferably a brigade can be left in the area, then we will see progress. As far as we know, the ANA is already seriously overextended so stationing troops in the area is unlikely. We also take note of reports that the Taliban have been slipping away as the encirclement takes place. Readers should note the ANA has about 50,000 men deployed and about another 5,000 in training. Though desertions are way down, still one man in five in combat battalions is pushing off for his home village. Afghans - like the Iraqis - are very attached to their villages and do not like serving away. This is not just a matter of sentiment: for a man to leave his family behind is to create many problems of every day life and security for them. When the ANA gets up to 250,000 - as planned by Kabul, though as yet only an expansion to 70-80,000 has been approved as far as we know - and as security improves, this problem will get reduced. Pakistan Army Says Swat Valley Secured 290 insurgents have been killed and around 150 captured. The Pakistan Army says it committed 20,000 troops to the information, which accords with our information. We have just one comment. The insurgents belonging to this particularly mullah were supposed to number 500-800. Some reinforcements arrived from other groups. If we accept the Pakistan Army's earlier statement that it managed to prevent the reinforcements from entering, the insurgents should at best have numbered 600-1000. Now, if ~300 are dead, presumably that many were seriously wounded. Add the ~180 captured, and you are looking at 80-100% casualties. The Pakistani insurgents must then be presumed to be highly motivated. We've already seen the Taliban - who are increasingly consisting of Pakistanis as opposed to "dual-country" Afghan Pushtuns seem to have an endless capacity to take casualties. Of course, the Pakistanis could be counting "supporters" in the dead and wounded. These will be people who did not actually fight, but performed tasks such as resupply and casualty evacuation or providing safe houses/shelter. Interestingly, the mullah is back on the air with his FM station. He has announced he was wounded. 0230 GMT December 9, 2007 NATO/Afghan Troops Battling for Musa Qila - Again A major operation is underway; several hundred Taliban fighters are defending the town which has changed hands - how many times? We forget. There can be no doubt the Coalition will take the town. But unless there are now sufficient Afghan troops to hold the place, it will be lost - again - as NATO forces leave for other areas. We confess to some amazement that the west is willing to fight futile battles again and again. We'd think the public would demand an accounting. Of course, the public knows jolly well Afghanistan has to be won. If they look too closely at why it isn't being won, the public will immediately have to conclude there are too few troops. And - needless to say - the public does not want to deal with the logical answer to that issue. Meanwhile, somewhere up to three quarters of a million NATO troops just sit around. Presumably they are doing useful things like watching the grass grow. They sure as heck aren't fighting, Islamic fundamentalists believe the west has becoming decadent. Truth to tell, the west is well past the point of decadence. It is now in a state of degeneracy. The sole western nation willing to fight is the US. Pity the US does not have the brains to match its brawn. The UK was willing to fight but is rapidly losing its appetite for war: it can barely recruit enough troops for a 100,000 soldier army from a population of 61-million. Still, compared to the Germans, Italians, Spanish, and French - population of near 250-million, 80% of the US -  the British are absolute tigers for battle. Europe/Canada/Australia come up with all kinds of excuses for not fighting. The chief one, they say, is they do not believe the GWOT is to be fought/won by military means. The second reason, they say, is they hate George Bush so much they cannot join the US in the war. Okay, so we understand they don't want to have anything to with Iraq. But what about Afghanistan? Is that not a cause worth fighting for? If you say "no it isn't", then the fundamentalists have won. The west bar the US needs to wear bangles. That is the traditional means by which Indian women seek to shame cowardly men - make them a present of bangles. German Chancellor Stands With The People of Zimbabwe she says at a meeting of ~70 EU/African leaders. President Robert Mugabe was in the audience. We are sure he sobbed loudly into his pink hanky at this terrible indictment by the German Chancellor. Dare we ask the good Chancellor how many Zimbabwe people were in the hall where she was standing with the Zimbabwe people? How far away was the hall from Zimbabwe? What is she proposing to rid Africa of this murderous tyrant? Give another speech? A Minor Gripe The BBC says that the Congo Army is firing "heavy artillery" at rebels in Northeast Congo as it advance. "Heavy artillery" can be defined in various ways, but using standard US calibers, 175mm and 203mm would be heavy. The Congo Army has no heavy artillery. The other day we believe the Washington Post referred to the US Army as the world's biggest war machine. The world's biggest war machine belongs to PRC, followed by India, followed by Pakistan. US is fourth 0230 GMT December 8, 2007 The CIA Tapes Case Obviously the CIA destroyed the tapes not because if leaked they could compromise the security of the officers and their families but because the top brass was worried about being indicted. If the security of its officers is the issue, CIA should be automatically destroying all records pertaining to operations personnel because that stuff could be leaked too. Be hard to run an agency without records, but you can't have anything. So we do give the CIA Director a metaphorical smack on the hand and a timeout in the corner for his stupid, unnecessary lie about why the tapes were destroyed. So much better to say: "You, the people, the Congress, and the government of the US have given us an impossible job, Subsequent to 9/11, had we failed to use every interrogation method at our disposal, and had more attacks taken place, or had we missed information vital to understanding what happened on 9/11, you would have crucified us. But when we use those methods, you crucify us. So you all need to stop being hypocrites of the first order and give us clear instructions: can we torture or can we not torture? Whatever you decide, we will follow. Whatever the consequences either way, it is on your head, and don't come blaming us because it's your decision." The Missing $1-billion In Iraq Weapons/Equipment Sorry, this barely moves our outrage meter. Americans have to decide what they want: to fight a war or to keep accurate books. The US has attempted to rapidly build up Iraqi forces under one crash program after another, and if just $1-2 billion has gone astray, we say: "Kudos to the US military for its efficient book-keeping". The relevant comparisons should use 3 baselines. First, is more stuff being lost/diverted/stolen/sold than in previous wars on a per year basis? Second, you have a "corporation" that is "spending" near $700-billion a year. What is a comparable lost/diverted/stolen/sold rate for a private corporation of that size? Three, it should be easy to program a model that gives you a correlation between expected accuracy in inventory control versus speed of getting the job done. So, for example, we need to know how much stuff rushed to Katrina disaster relief is missing as a function of how much stuff was purchased/donated etc. Once you have a model, you can judge whether the military is to condemned for sloppy inventory control or praised for efficient inventory control. We know someone is going to say: "But these are weapons that went missing, not bottled water. The weapons may have landed up with insurgents and are being used to kill Americans." Okay, people, we all need to calm down. In all wars some fraction of your weapons end up in the enemy's hands for any number of reasons: lost on the battlefield, stolen from storage, sold by the soldiers are some well-known reasons. So first we need data as to how these Iraq losses compare to, say, Vietnam and Korea, two wars in which the US undertook massive programs to standup local forces. Then we can judge if this a problem more serious or less serious than in past wars. Think for a moment. Using a dollar deflator of 10-1, $2-billion worth of missing stuff (we take the figure to include everything missing)  is $200-million in World War II. US defense spending plus GWOT military spending would amount to $60-billion, close to the actual peak $65-billion for 1944 and 1945. Not being able to account for $200-million out of $65-billion would not have been an issue at that time. We know the situations are not comparable, but we are trying to make a broad point here and the point remains valid. And as for weapons ending up in enemy hands, people, how many Iraqis have defected with weapons from US organized forces since 2003? We haven't seen any figures, but in this case the US was not just providing weapons which could be turned against its soldiers, it was actually training these jerks. 0230 GMT December 7, 2007 Was Our Favorite Dictator Pressured To Concede? Venezuela media says our boy did not want to concede defeat in the referendum but the military told him he'd jolly well better stick to the rules. Refusal would be more his style. In any case, as evident from his belligerent talk post-referendum, he has no intention to stop tell he gets his way. Next time he'll do a better job of making sure the votes goes as he wants. Defense Procurement: India Shoots Itself In The Foot Again After canceling a deal to purchase 400 155mm/52 howitzers earlier this year, the Ministry of Defense has now said it will not award a $4-billion contract to Eurocopter for 197 light helicopters. 60 were to be imported as soon as possible and the balance to be assembled in India. Once again we have the unedifying sight of India, which finally has the financial means to start fulfilling its 60-year old dream of being a superpower, being unable to get its defense procurement together. The medium gun purchase has been hanging fire for 20 years. We have not followed the light helicopter saga, but seeing as the army still uses the Alouette 2/3 as its standard light helicopter, its probably fair to say the replacement is also 20 years overdue. The medium gun issue is simple. The first modernization involved 400 Bofors howitzers and commissions/bribes were paid as is standard worldwide. The matter become so politically hot, India cancelled plans to manufacture 800-1200 more howitzers. Subsequently there has been competition after competition with no one willing to make a decision for fear of corruption accusations. Meanwhile, the Indian Artillery is so overdue for modernization that - as the Indians say - "it isn't even funny". The light helicopter deal cancellation may be a negotiating tactic. India accuses Eurocopter of bad faith by deviating from the original agreement. Our older readers may recall other sagas, the Advanced Jet Trainer for example and the MiG-21 replacement. For reasons best known to them, the Indian services refuse to order equipment in quantities sufficient to produce major economies of scale. They also refuse to stick to a clear policy of indigenous R & D and manufacture because they won't accept the reduced capabilities vis-a-vis imported equipment. So they end up with a bit of this and a bit of that. For example, the Navy has three separate frigate programs with just 22 ships in service, building, or projected. It has 4 conventional submarine classes in service, building, or projected with just 28 units. One shudders to imagine what the maintenance/spares/modernization problems must entail. The Army has 4 tank programs - T-72, Arjun, Arjun replacement for the T-72, and T-90. At that, the Army deserves credit for phasing out the Vijayanta and T-55, otherwise strictly speaking the Army has 6 types of MBTs. You can bet your booties that some problem or the other will be found with the Arjun replacement and India will end up with 4 different types of tanks: T-90, T-72, Arjun replacement, and T-72 replacement. India now has enormous resources for its military modernization programs. The GDP is $1 trillion with 8% annual growth, and the defense budget, which has been upped several times in the past few years, still takes up only 2% of GDP. We are minded of Bob Dylan's song "You Aint Going Nowhere", when looking at the pace of mdoernization. What India needs is a defense procurement czar of unimpeachable integrity with the right of hiring staff also of unimpeachable integrity. The politicians and line bureaucrats and military brass need to be kept out of the process except for the military to give the specs, the bureaucrats to say what the financial constraints are, and the politicians to set the overall procurement budget. Everyone else needs to stay out. From James P.Freemon Does the Iran NIE even matter? Does Intelligence have any impact on the making of policy decisions, or do policy makers selectively use intelligence, real or manufactured, to justify policy decisions already made?  We don't go to war based on sound Intelligence, we use Intelligence as propaganda to justify going to war to the American people and whoever else we can snooker into going along with our agenda. At least that's been the case since I put on my first pair of combat boots in 1965. Gulf of Tonkin incident, Saddam's WMDs, imminent Iranian nukes.... Anyone see a pattern here? The fact that Iran has no active nuclear arms program doesn't mean the policy decision to destroy the Iranian regime hasn't already been made. The only uncertainty seems to be whether it's this administration or the next one that pulls the trigger. There are few candidates in either party that aren't willing, or even eager to smack Iran. It does appear that there are still some in opposition though. A few people are throwing away their careers to stop it. Speed bumps slowing our march down the road to more war keep magically appearing, such as the B52 'Accidentally' Loaded with Nukes Flies to Barksdale story being made public (by whistle-blowers?) at the exact time all our military pieces arrived in place for a pre-emptive air attack on Iran. And now this release of the NIE....(of course this maybe just the Intelligence community covering it's rear to prevent it being made the scape-goat again.) There's a lot going on behind the scenes we aren't aware of. 0230 GMT December 6, 2007 Not much by way of news and we are not feeling up to a long-planned rant on the failure of the US military to train Iraqi forces. This is a more serious problem than any other in Iraq. The problem for us is, however, how do you attack the duds - civilians and brass alike - who run the US military without reflecting badly on the soldiers and field officers who are doing their very best. We will get around to discussing why the training effort has failed, just not today. Pakistan Army is still fighting to bring Swat under control. This time the Army will not withdraw. Instead it is planning to permanently station forces in Swat. Pakistan's traditional arrangement with the frontier tribes has been that pre-partition cantonments were to remain, but the Army would not expand its presence and would confine itself to the cantonments. So you can look at the new plan in two different ways. You can say good, the Pakistanis have decided to better control their border areas. Or you can say bad, because now the tribes will have news causes for grievances and new chances to inflict casualties on the army. Read Bill Roggio on Swat; as usual, he relies on Gulf news media. There may be good reasons to prefer this source over the Pakistan press reports. http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2007/12/pakistani_army_advan.php We can attest that Mr. Roggio's analysis is accurate. Batteries And The GI We learn the American infantry soldier carries 20-lbs of batteries on operations. So that would be one reason the soldier's load has soared to 100-120 pounds and even more. Bic - of Bic Pen/Lighter/Razor fame - is working on disposable fuel cells to replace batteries. While Bic may be taking this to the limit, many other people are also working on fuel cells. One story we read says fuel cells could provide twice the power at one-fourth the weight. So when this comes about, do we assume the soldier will carry 2.5-lbs of fuel cells vs 20-lbs of batteries? Of course not. The military's planners will now see the need for at least 8 times as much electrical power as in the past, so do not be surprised if the soldier ends up with - say - 25-lbs of fuel cells. Of course, once the US military gets the exoskeleton thing worked out, the soldier will be able to carry 300-lbs. This will serve for a while, and then the requirements will creep up. For example, you can see a need for several hundred pounds of propellant for jet packs so the armored soldier can zip about the battlefield. Reader Walter E. Wallis is unimpressed with the NIE on Iran. He says if the intel community was wrong about Iraq WMDs, could it not be wrong on Iran's lack of N-weapons too? We at Orbat.com never got into the WMD as a causus belli for Gulf II debate. We supported the war for other reasons and were uninterested in what truth or flim-flam the administration used to justify the invasion to the public. 0230 GMT December 5, 2007 Both Sides Declare Victory In Iran N-Dispute This is terribly heartwarming. Iran declares victory in the N-weapons dispute and so does the US. Iran's reason for feeling victorious is obvious. The US reason is more subtle. Washington says the report proves that sanctions work. It is not our place to act curmudgeonly when self-congratulations abound. But couldn't Teheran have been a bit more open about its N-program? Yes, the world's intrusiveness on such matters is an affront to national sovereignty and dignity. But that's the way the world is. And couldn't the US have done more to engage Teheran? It's fine for Ms. Rice, the US SecState, to say Iran remains dangerous because it continues to develop the technology to make N-weapons. But a whole raft of countries already have that technology - Taiwan, ROK, and Japan are three examples in one part of the world. And India not only actually has N-bombs in whatever state they may exist, it has a very active program to keep improving the bombs and delivery capabilities. Pakistan is said to have up to 80 N-bombs and is said to be a very dangerous place because those bombs may fall into the wrong hands. And UK, France, Russia, and PRC have hundreds and thousands of N-weapons. Israel is an N-weapons state. Is the US sanctioning all these states? Hardly. It works with its allies (UK, France) and it works with its enemies (PRC, Russia, DPRK) and it works with its friends (India, Pakistan) to control situations in which their bombs/weapons may become a threat to US security. So why couldn't the US have done the same with Teheran? Oil And Whales Versus A Way Of Life The US part of the Bering Sea is thought to have 27-billion barrels of oil. If developed, that's a 30-year replacement for US oil imports from the Mideast. Think of the trillions of dollars in security costs the US would save over 30 years if it didn't have to depend on Mideast oil. So the US should be rushing to develop this oil, right? Wrong. There's environmental opposition. It's okay with environmentalists that the US demand for oil helps environmentally degrade countries like Nigeria and devastates others like Sudan and Chad. Its fine that countries like Saudi use their oil dollars to fund terrorism against America. But heaven forefend there should be a risk, however small, to the US environment. In the Bering Sea, however, there is another factor altogether that is hampering development. This is a "native" American tribe that says killing up to 60 bowhead whales a year is part of its priceless way of life, and oil development in the region may disrupt the movement of whales. Indeed. So this tribe is living as it did before the industrial era, and is doing without airports, roads, ports, power, modern houses, shops, hospitals etc., all stuff that irrevocably alters traditional ways of life? So this tribe is hunting whales in tiny unpowered fishing boats and using old-fashioned harpoons to kill the whales? Well, not exactly. That technology way-of-life-altering stuff is okay. If this position were not absurd enough by itself, has the tribe considered two other factors? First, a lot of us consider the hunting of whales akin to murder. Will this tribe support American Hindus who in accordance with what was a tradition less than 200-years ago insist that when they die their wives commit suicide by fire on their pyre? Will it support American Muslims who may insist on the rights of their traditional ways of life, which include killing your sister/daughter on suspicion they may no longer be virgins? And what about the traditional New England way of life is which women suspected of witchcraft were burned? And what about the way of life of Christians, where you could be tortured to death for heresy? Second, when these natives came to the Bering Sea thousands of years ago, they irrevocably altered the way of life for other humans who might have lived there, and if no humans ever lived there, irrevocably altered the way of life for whales. Animals kill to survive. Humans once had to kill to survive, but now we recognize that we no longer need to do so, and that we are stewards of the earth on which we live. Our values have changed. Doubtless the way of live for the whales near oil development sites will change. But at least they'll get to live if development disrupts their travel. More important, Americans will have a better life if we can save money and lives by saying goodbye to Mideast oil. None of the above is intended to suggest that we shouldn't conserve or look for alternate energy sources. 0230 GMT December 4, 2007 US NIE Says Iran Not Developing N-Weapons  National Intelligence Estimates are a consensus produced by several agencies. This one says Iran halted its efforts in 2003. If it resumes work, it will likely have a weapon by 2010-2015. http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/12/03/iran.nuclear/index.html It's very rarely your editor gets taken by surprise - perhaps once every 5-10 years. This report took him by complete surprise. His own estimate for an Iranian N-weapon was 2015 on the assumption Iran continues with work. So that is no new news as far as he is concerned. We knew the US was not about to attack Iran - not all along, because there was a time some months ago when Washington seemed getting set to go - but at least as of the last six months. The surprise is that the NIE has been made/released. We were convinced the Administration was determined to keep building its case against Iran even if it did not plan to attack. But with the NIE, the US has undercut 90% of its own efforts to isolate/punish Iran. It hasn't undercut 100%, because Washington can still say - quite correctly - that Iran could resume work any time. But it becomes near impossible to impose sanctions when your government is in effect saying the Iranians have stopped work. We wonder if oil is going to go down now. King Hugo's Coronation Deferred Okay people, what happened here? Our boy went down 49-51 in his referendum he wanted to declare himself King For Life. 44% of eligible voters did not vote. So you can say that his supporters disapproved of the idea and abstained. Or you can say - as we think - President Hugo was so convinced he'd win his people did not do enough of a job to get out the vote. Anyway, our boy is not daunted. He graciously conceded defeat, congratulated those who voted against him, and promised to have another vote. Attaboy. SecDef Gates In Afghanistan to discuss strategy and requirements to combat the resurgent Taliban says Reuters. That's fine, but what struck us is that the US is saying Al Qaeda appears to be moving into Afghanistan after its Iraq defeats. The British Teacher And The Teddy Bear The teacher should be back in the UK after being sentenced to 15 days imprisonment and then pardoned for allowing her students to name a teddy after the Prophet. So the media has been going to town on the story, with just about everyone saying "Gwarsh, these Mozzies are mad" - including many western Muslims. There is a different way of looking at the matter. Having worked for 10 years in American Catholic schools, your editor can assure his readers that had a Muslim teacher permitted her kids to name a teddy "Jesus" there would have been a serious problem. Admittedly, she would hardly have been arrested, nor would there have been demonstrators calling for her execution. Now, we at Orbat.com are 100% against Islamic fundamentalism. That doesn't mean we, or anyone else, should insult the Prophet. Sure, get agitated about what people are doing in his name. By all means lets kill those who want to kill us in his name. But we have to respect him. There are a lot of Americans who get upset when they see their religious icons insulted in the name of art and free speech. There was the uproar about the entertainer Madonna and her antics with a crucifix, some years ago. We thought she was wrong. We think the British teacher was also wrong. Pakistan: Nawaz Sharif Disqualified from standing for election. This is by the Returning Officer in front of whom Mr. Sharif filed his nominated papers and, of course, the matter can be taken to court. But the reality is that Mr. Sharif was convicted of several offenses after he was overthrown by President Musharraf and he was debarred from standing for public office for 21 years. Parliament can, obviously, give him an amnesty and presumably so can the President - we are not terribly clued up on Pakistan law in this respect. But Parliament has been dissolved pending general elections. And as for what the President might or might not do, your guess is as good as ours. We remind readers that the amnesty order ending all cases against Ms. Bhutto is being challenged in court. The current Supreme Court is President Musharraf's court. What happens next remains to be seen. 0230 GMT December 3, 2007 Russia CNN reports that with 55% of precincts counted President Putin's party has ~63% of the vote. This will allow the part to obtain a solid majority in the Duma and  allow the transformation of President Putin into Prime Minister Putin. Venezuela Reuters says exit polls and government statements say that the  referendum to transmogrify President Hugo into King Hugo is close. Exit pools indicate he has a 4% lead. Lebanon Steps Back From Brink Though details are still being worked out for the December 7 presidential vote, it looks like the current army chief is acceptable to all parties. Parliament has to ratify an exception for him because civil servants are barred from office for two years after leaving office. Also, some opposition leaders want the general to stand down in 2009 when parliamentary elections take place and not serve a full term to 2013. If this comes about, the new parliament will elect a new president. Finally, Some Sense In Afghanistan The Afghan Government says it will treble its army to 200,000. Earlier a target of 70,000 had been approved by NATO - the army is approaching that figure - but that was before the Taliban's resurgence. It still remains for the west to agree to pay for the bigger army. The Afghans are making the eminently rational argument that it is much cheaper - and more effective - to pay for Afghans than for the West to send its troops. We hope this plan is not too late. UK's MI-6 Complains About James Bond It says that thanks to James Bond, it gets a large number of nutcases applying. MI-6 - also known as the Secret Intelligence Service - is the UK's equivalent of the CIA, with the difference that the bulk of its operatives have served in the military. At least this was the case when your editor last was concerned with these matters, and that was almost 20 years ago. MI-6 has become a bit more open and has started to recruit on merit rather than solely on connections. Back in the day, you didn't volunteer for MI-6. You were invited to join, so the right background and the right connections were everything. That is why MI-6 is complaining about James Bond. Before this merit business, if you were a kook, you didn't get invited. By the way, MI-6 anyone in the agency has a license to kill. How boring. Next thing they'll be telling us there is no Q. 0230 GMT December 2, 2007 Turkish-Kurd Roshmon Turkey says it launched an "intense" cross-border operation against PKK insurgents. Long-range artillery, six gunships, and 100 SF troops were utilized against a PKK camp after 50-60 insurgents were spotted moving around. Heavy casualties have been inflicted. PKK and Iraqi Kurd leader say no operation was launched. No casualties were inflicted. Pakistan Poll: Straws In The Wind? The brother of ex-prime minister Nawaz-i-Sharif has been denied the right to contest the coming election on the grounds there are pending arrest warrants against him, reports The Nation of Pakistan. Mr. Sharif's brother heads his political party. This action increases the chances that Mr. Sharif himself will also be denied the right to run. In the meanwhile. Meanwhile, we were unable to find any story on the Swat operation in either The Nation, the Frontier Post, or Jang. www.longwarjournal.org, which usually depends on Pakistan news published in Gulf newspapers says the operation is stalled after 10 days and that the new Pakistan Army chief will be under pressure to negotiate an end to this mission, which is highly unpopular in Pakistan and with the Army. Sunni Political Leader Says He Is Under House Arrest This is the gentleman whose son and 50 employees have been arrested on suspicion of involvement with a bomb-rigged vehicle found outside his compound in Baghdad - the Iraqis say it was inside his compound. As he has immunity as a member of parliament he has not been arrested, but there are threats that his immunity will be pulled. The Iraq Government says he is not under house arrest. The Iraqi security forces in and around his compound are there for his protection because now he has no bodyguards. The Government also says he in custody for his own protection while investigations continue. Sounds a lot like when the English police "ask" you to "cooperate with their inquiries" - usually this means you are going down as the main suspect. Meanwhile, the leader's political party, which has the largest number of seats of any Sunni party, walked out of parliament, saying they will not return till their leader is allowed to leave his house. US Tells UK Court It Has Right To Kidnap Anyone Anywhere in the world who is wanted for any crime in the US. Before this declaration, it was generally assumed that "extraordinary rendition" applied only in extraordinary circumstances, like terrorists. The problem with this is it may make the US feel good, but it opens up the prospect that Americans wanted in other countries for any reason will be liable to kidnap. Also, you could cases like the Cubans/Venezuelans could claim the right to kidnap from Miami the man accused of bombing a Cuban airliner that went down over Venezuela. The Cubans/Venezuelans say he is a wanted terrorist and want his extradition. The US courts disagree and he remains free in the US. The other problem is that much of the world already hates the US government/administration and this will be just another reason Hugo Threatens To Cut US Oil Shipments if the US should say his referendum today on declaring himself King Hugo For Life is rigged or unfair. Prayer to King Hugo: Dear King Hugo, please, please, please cut off supplies to the US. First, you will teach the US a valuable lesson and perhaps the US will start conserving/developing alternate sources. Second, you will bankrupt Venezuela, as few others will be able to refine your heavy oil. Then the people will run you out of town, and your country will be saved. 0230 GMT December 1, 2007 Iraq Opposition groups have attacked the Iraqi government's pact with the US that will permit US forces to remain in Iraq for decades. The son of a prominent Sunni leader who ended cooperation in parliament with the Shias is under arrest along with 30-50 of the leaders guards and employees after a vehicle rigged to explode was found in his compound. He says the vehicle was outside and that he was a target of an assassination attempt. Government sources say Iraqi security forces were chasing a gunman who then ran into the compound. A key to the vehicle was recovered from one of the guards at the Sunni leader's house. Iraq 2007 Washington Post says that with Iraq security improving, US is shifting its benchmarks to improvements in services the government provides its citizens. Apparently the government is unable to provide services such as health, education, sanitation, water, power etc. in meaningful form. This news naturally leads us to carry a news item: Iraq 2057 The US's $10-trillion investment in Iraq is finally paying off. Essential services are available around the clock, security is good, the education system works etc. With the Iraq government's ability to provide services to its citizens now achieved, the US is shifting its benchmarks to ensure that Baghdad zoning codes regarding the number of cars per household permitted to park on the street are observed. The new benchmarks also include: No Iraqi Child Left Behind; cessation of smoking in public areas; inspection of toys from China for lead; and an end to the unsanitary Iraqi habit of spitting and urinating in public areas. Australia is to withdraw its 550 combat troops in Iraq in 2008, the new government has said. There are an additional 1000 military personnel in neighboring countries; these will not be affected. Israeli Court Upholds Gaza Fuel Ban but wants more details before approving electricity bans. Russia Suspends CFE Participation and says Conventional Forces Europe inspectors will no longer be given access to Russian military sites. Russia also considers itself free of obligations regarding limitations on troops/equipment west of the Urals. Incidentally, though Russia ratified the treaty in 2004, the west has not because, it says, Russia has not abided by all clauses, including the withdrawal of Russian troops from former USSR nations. Nonetheless, both sides were observing the treaty in practice. Pakistan: Ms. Bhutto Rejects Poll Boycott but says she reserves the right to withdraw at a later point - whatever that means. Rumors abound that she has made her peace with President Musharraf. This is another bit of non-news: President Musharraf has no reason to trust Ms. Bhutto one little bit and we feel he will be busy engineering payback for her betrayal after their US/UK brokered deal led to her return from exile. It appears that since Mr. Nawaz-i-Sharif was convicted of various economic offenses after he was overthrown, his nomination papers for parliament may have to be rejected by Pakistan's Election Commission. He can still run his party, but power comes from being in parliament, not remaining on the outside. From James J. Freemon on Saudi's "Qatif Girl"  Do we even care about the 'rights' of some female in Arabia? Before we sent our own female military members into the place, how many Americans had a clue how women lived in that part of the world. All we thought was they dressed funny. They probably made 'em cover their faces so they wouldn't stampede the camels. It's only about the oil. For now at least, uninterrupted access to Saudi oil is absolutely vital to our nation and our way of life. It is our life-blood. When you've placed your country's chestnuts in the hands of another, you've basically given up the ability to do anything except smile (and hope they handle you gently). You definitely don't want to upset them ... at least until you are in a position to quickly turn the tables. I spent a good part of my adult life living and working in the magic kingdom... first as a US Air Force officer, and later as a contractor training RSAF officers to run their air defense system (which we designed and built... and can quickly and easily neutralize). Look at a map. Look where we now have overwhelming military assets.  In my opinion, the GWOT has been a pretext to position our forces in order to quickly dominate the entire GULF region and take control of our major source of oil (if/when that becomes necessary). Until then, it's easiest to smile at the House of Saud and make nice. I believe 9/11 and Afghanistan were distractions which temporarily interrupted other plans. We aren't about to leave Iraq. As long as the Saudis keep pumping and selling us the crude, we'll just shut up and keep coloring. The day they stop... Editor's Comment Readers may recall we supported Gulf II because we thought the aim was to build Iraq's oil exports to the point that the US could - um - straighten out Saudi Arabia. 6-million Iraqi barrels/day would not, obviously, substitute for Saudi's 9-10 million, but they would help ease the pain in case the Saudis blew up their oil infrastructure in the event of a US invasion. So we very much hope Mr. Freemon is right. 0230 GMT November 30, 2007 No news, so we climb back on some of our fave soap-boxes. Iraq: Everyone Is Unhappy About The Security Improvement Before we proceed with our rant, can we request people refrain from labeling people who support as "right-wing" and those who oppose as "left-wing"? Wings have nothing to do with it. Plenty of righties oppose Iraq, and while we know very few lefties, we can see that you can be a leftie and still support Iraq. For example, if you are a rabid left socialist but also back Israel, then the Iraq intervention is supportable. Hokay, back to the rant. The pro-Iraq lot are upset at what they see as the anti-Iraq lot's refusal to admit that security has improved. The anti-Iraq lot are upset at what they see the pro-Iraq's lot refusal to see that (a) had the US not destabilized Iraq, there would be no issue of improving stability, and (b) if security has improved, shouldn't we planning our exit? While the pro- and anti- crowds stamp around locking horns, let us slip aside and restate our point of view. We care not a whit whether the US is losing or winning. The US has decided, for whatever reasons, that it can maintain only a small army. Thus, the US needs to send ground troops only to the most important conflicts. Afghanistan/Pakistan a much more important conflict than Iraq when we speak of the GWOT. Ergo, take the troops out of Iraq and send them Afghanistan/Pakistan. If the US is winning, jolly good, pip pip, God Save President Bush, America Forever and so on, now can we stop playing in our sand box and get out into the real world? if the US is losing, no dishonor, no shame. The US did what it came to do, now it needs to get out instead of continually raising the bar. Lets pat ourselves on the back, and stop playing in our sandbox and get out into the real world. Nawaz-i-Sharif Organizing Pakistan Poll Boycott according to Pakistan's Frontier Post. He is in touch with all major political parties. He says that the President's resignation from the Army means little and as long as certain conditions are not met, the polls will not be fair. We should explain that Mr. Sharif is actually the only one who would benefit from a boycott. When General Musharraf sent him off, the General took over Mr. Sharif's political party as his civilian front. That lot has grown fat with the spoils of the land in the last 8 years, and don't want Mr. Sharif back. If a poll boycott is successful, Mr. Sharif gets time to wheel and deal and strengthen his position. Ms. Benazir Bhutto's party, on the other hand, remained more or less faithful to her during her exile. So she doesn't need to engage in the same shenanigans. A major political party has already said boycotting the polls will only play into President Musharraf's hands because his stooges will get elected and dominate the provincial assemblies and parliament. We think this party is correct. We are also getting this feeling that - despite our depictions of President Musharraf as weak and battered - he may actually have played his cards very skillfully and may emerge the champ after all. For example, Pakistan's political parties can be counted on to destroy each other. That leaves the Prez the last person standing. Another example: Mr. Sharif is not covered by the amnesty extended to Ms. Bhutto. Any minute now a "concerned" citizen can go to the Supreme Court - who are now all pally-wally with the Prez - and demand the government arrest Mr. Sharif and Company on outstanding corruption charges. Bye-bye Mr. Sharif, see you in 10 years. Similarly, a "concerned" citizen can challenge the amnesty to Ms. Bhutto. The Prez no longer needs her as she tried to stab him in the back when she thought he was going down. So it will be bye-bye Ms. Bhutto, see you in 10 years. On any case, can we once again ask the west not to insult itself by going on and on about Ms. Bhutto as the savior of Pakistan? Yes, you can say a horribly inept and horribly corrupt civilian leader is better than a modestly corrupt and moderately effective ex-military leader. But then say just that and don't go all dewy-eyed about Ms. Bhutto and democracy. And if its cooperation in the GWOT, the Prez is still a better bet. He will go 5% of the way with you (that's right, five percent). Ms. Bhutto will talk big, the Army will simply yawn and refuse her orders, and then you won't get even the 5%. The Pakistan Army still holds all the cards in GWOT cooperation, and Pakistan's interests are absolutely opposed to America's. President Bush Allegedly Involved In Plame Leak We should have published this a week ago in all fairness to Mr. Richard Cheney who we frequently - but en passant - dumped on re. the Plame case. The President's former press secretary is to publish a book in which he says the President himself was also responsible. Our response: "So big deal". Ms. Plame was not covert. Ah, say opponents of Mr. Bush/Cheney, but they lied about the matter. They must be impeached. Look, people, we were angry that Mr. Scooter Libby, the Veep's chief of staff, was convicted of lying to a federal jury investigating the leak, particularly since if he told any lies it was to protect his boss. We don't give a hang about the self-promoting couple of Plame and Wilson - the latter probably also guilty of crimes such as leaking confidential government documents. We don't give a hang what Mr. Bush or Mr. Cheney said. Washington is a hardball kind of town. You can't go up against the President and Veep to advance your own agenda and then weep when you get smacked right back. This is not crimes, this is politics. We believed the impeachment of Mr. Bill Clinton for lying to a jury was wrong. We believed the trial and conviction of Mr. Scooter Libby was wrong. We equally believe any impeachment of the President/Veep would be wrong. A legal type pointed out to us that the law was the law, and no one is above it, not even the president. If you lie to a jury you strike at the heart of the American judicial system. Fine. So change the stupid law to separate overtly political matters from criminal matters. The law can be an ass, but why does it have to be an ass's ass? Saudi Arabia's "Qatif Girl" Independent of UK has managed to get an interview with the married Shia teenager who was repeatedly raped by seven men and then sentenced to 200 lashes. Her sentence was doubled from 90 lashes because her lawyer dared go to the media to protest against her original sentence. He, of course, has been disbarred. Read this story to understand the kind of slime the US has allied itself with in the name of "energy security" and "Mideast stability". We completely fail to understand how a people like the Americans who hold the sanctity of individual rights paramount can have any dealings with the Saudis. Everyone and his kid sister has been dumping on President Musharraf of Pakistan for violating human rights. But re. the Saudis, all we get is cautious statements expressing distress, disappointment, and concern. Hey, Washington and America's establishment: how about your ever-so-good buddies the Saudis who everyday commit crimes against you in the form of terrorists and money given to terrorists? You have any time to condemn this sorry lot for human rights violations or are you too busy fighting for crumbs from the table of the Royal House of Saud? We found the reference to 40% of foreign fighters in Iraq being Saudi http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/article3187098.ece The US extensively interrogates captured terrorists and suspected terrorists. So are we to assume that until now the US didn't know till now? Or should we assume the US government knew but has has been blaming Syria - 8% of foreign terrorists - to deflect attention from its best buds, the Saudis? We have a suggestion: why don't all those who think Saudi Arabia is so great leave America and go live over there?  They might change their mind fast. 0230 GMT November 29, 2007 Pakistan Orbat for NWFP/FATA Mandeep Singh Bajwa says that reports saying Pakistan has withdrawn troops from Jammu and Kashmir for the NWFP/FATA are wrong. Orbat.com speculates that the reports, from India, are the result of an inexperienced correspondent misunderstanding what was told to him by his military source. There are 17 brigades committed to NWFP/FATA as well as almost the entire Frontier Corps. Six of the brigades are from 7 and 9 Divisions, which have their peacetime cantonments in the region. Six brigades are infantry from Army Reserve North. ARN is normally committed to the area between the River Chenab and the River Sutluj as a strike force, it is possible that the Indian media thought troops had been withdrawn from Jammu and Kashmir. Three brigades are from XXX Corps, a holding formation that protects the Pakistan border between Suliemanke and Rahim Yar Khan. One brigade is a corps reserve for IV Corps, which protects Lahore-Kasur. The last brigade is infantry from Army Reserve South. While reinforcing formations have left their tanks behind, their mechanized infantry is deployed mainly for convoy escort. Integral artillery regiments and the whole of the aviation combat group with ARS has also moved. In Swat alone there is one division plus 10 wings (battalions) of the Frontier Corps. This is a huge deployment to deal with a small area and 500 insurgents. We are waiting word from Mr. Bajwa as to why Pakistan feels 20,000 regular/paramilitary troops are required for Swat. Pakistan Army Says Swat Mainly Under Control and that the insurgent leader has abandoned his 2-square-kilometer headquarters and fled with his supporters into the mountains. The Frontier Post of Pakistan says it was unable to to contact the insurgent leader's spokesperson due to a complete breakdown of telecommunications in the Swat valley. BBC On Improvement In A Baghdad Neighborhood http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7116717.stm Lebanon Jerusalem Post says that a consensus is emerging to make the Army chief president of Lebanon. He is considered neutral between the pro- and anti-Syria factions, the dispute between whom has left the country without a president. The newspaper emphasis that this is by no means  a done deal. All sides are to meet on November 30 for the fourth attempt to elect a president. Oil Falls To $92 on rumors of additional OPEC production and a slower than expected drawdown of US stocks. The World's Five Worst Airports according to Foreign Policy magazine are: Dakar in Senegal; New Delhi in India; Mineralnye Vody in Russia; Baghdad International, Iraq; and Charles de Gaulle in Paris. Congrats, New Delhi! Well done! Of course, we don't know how the list was compiled. The inclusion of CDG Paris is a surprise to us, but then the French, you know... With the Indians, we suspect, the problem is the opposite. The Indians want to hug you, and squeeze you, and make you theirs forever. If you like to keep a distance between yourself and other human beings, don't go to India. Indians are den animals: they seek comfort in piling up together, and that all may be strangers makes no difference. Personally, your editor thinks its quite charming. By the way, don't read your newspaper on an Indian bus: people will take away pages that you are not immediately reading. Like everything else in India, reading a newspaper in an Indian bus is a communal activity. Think: 1.1-billion people and they all will take you to their collective bosom for endless group sessions of hugs and cuddles. "You Will Never Be Alone" is India's motto. Venezuela: US Is Right To Stay Hands-Off One of the few points on which we agree with the Administration is its hands-off policy on President Hugo, our favorite dictator - and soon to be our favorite madman, judged by the pace which he is separating from reality. Read the following quoted from CNN and you will see why the US is right to stand aside - the man will destroy himself given time. In the past few years, the countries have sparred over everything from oil prices to free trade to democracy. But this year, the United States has studiously avoided being drawn into diplomatic disputes with the ally of Cuba and Iran. In that vacuum, Chavez has focused on other targets. Earlier on Wednesday, he called for an investigation into the U.S.-based TV network CNN on suspicion it might have subliminally instigated an assassination attempt against him. Hours later, the former paratrooper also broke off diplomatic ties with Colombia after calling its president a U.S. pawn for canceling his role as a mediator in talks with Colombian rebels aimed at freeing a large number of hostages. 0230 GMT November 27, 2007 Chad Fighting Resumes after a month-long ceasefire expires. The government claims hundreds of rebel dead; the rebel say they have lost 17 men while killing 100 government troops. The clash took place about 15-km from the Sudan/Darfur border. In September the UN cleared a 3000-troop joint EU-UN force for Chad and the Central African Republic. Its mission would be to protect refugees who have spilled into these two countries as a result of the Dafur war. Several hundred police would provide civil protection to refugees and the force, mainly French with a British general in command, would protect the police as well as refugees from military threats. Somalia Internally Displaced Persons Approach 1-million Of these, 450,000 have fled Mogadishu's continuing battles between the Islamic Courts Union and the Somalia government which is backed by Ethiopian forces. The CIA Factbook, which despite its provenance uses open sources, estimated Somalia's 2007 population at 9 million. Oil Still Holding At $99 We thought the $100 barrier would have been breached by now. Some experts say, however, that this will not happen unless some kind of geopolitical trouble spooks the market. Nonetheless, prices are expected to remain above $80 at least into 2009. Pakistan Releases 2 Taliban Leaders in exchange for troops held captive by a local Taliban warlord, says Pakistan's Frontier Post http://www.thefrontierpost.com/News.aspx?ncat=ts&nid=630 . The Frontier Post reports the government as saying its troops control all exit/entry routes in Swat and Shangla Districts. Parachinar town in Swat is said to be back in government hands, and Pakistani forces have taken control of dominating mountain top positions. We are not going to judge Pakistan's imperatives in this swap. The Taliban have no compunction in executing Pakistani prisoners and it is natural the Pakistan government would want its men back alive. We are told that we should be careful when talking price to specify which price because there are several. For example, OPEC crude sells in the US at a $2-$3 discount against West Texas Intermediate, which has less than .5% sulfur. There is an OPEC price based on an average of 7 types of crude. Brent crude is often used as the benchmark oil price. From Feisal Khan Re. Mandeep Singh Bajwa's thoughts on India sending troops to Afghanistan:  Even if the Indian government was delusional enough to offer a mountain division to ISAF in Afghanistan, how would the Indians keep it supplied? Do they propose to conquer the Northern Areas and use the road links from there?  Use Karachi/Bin-Qasim?  Use the US to arm-twist Pakistan into cooperating?  How long do you think Musharraf would last then?  Or any other Pakistani government that allowed Indian troops into Afghanistan. If the Indians were to put a division into Afghanistan, it would make the ill-fated IPKF venture in Sri Lanka look like a walk in the park.  Every nut-case in the NWFP and Punjab, and there is no shortage of them, would home in on the Indian troops.  Of course, I can see why the NATO members want Indian troops there but even Indians can't be stupid enough to want to intervene even if the Pakistanis are going to replace the pro-Indian Tajiks with pro (one hopes!) Pakistani Talibs! I used to think that no one was as stupid as Pakistani generals day dreaming about liberating Central Asia from the Soviets but if there are actually Indians thinking about intervening in Afghanistan, they take over as the world's worst strategic thinkers.  Get used to the fact that India does not matter much outside of South Asia.  After/If Pakistan collapses, and you've established a protectorate over Punjab and Sind and fought your way through the Khyber Pass, then consider pacifying Afghanistan. 0230 GMT November 26, 2007 Hezbollah Says US To Blame For Lebanon Impasse says the Jerusalem Post. We absolutely agree it is the US's fault, and we 100% support the US position, which is that at all costs a pro-Syria/Iran president is to be avoided. We do not object to Syria or Iran having their due share of influence in Lebanon: after all, it's their backyard. We object to their controlling Lebanon to benefit their objectives at the cost of a multi-ethnic democratic Lebanon. Normally, we'd say it is Lebanon's business what it does. But Lebanon is too weak to stand up for itself in the face of determined Syrian/Iranian assaults on its polity. Lebanon has always been a fragile state because of the need to keep a balance between Christians, Druze, Sunnis, and Shias. Anything that makes more difficult the business of maintaining a balance is to be condemned and the west must do what is neccessary to counter factions that do not contribute to stability in Lebanon. We fully realize our position leaves us vulnerable to being accused of overlooking Israel's role in destabilizing Lebanon. But we ask readers to remember that we have repeatedly condemned Israel for attacking the whole of Lebanon in 2006 just because Hezbollah had kidnapped two of its soldiers. Further, like it or not, there is a qualitative difference in Israel's objectives compared to Syria/Iran objectives. Israel does not want to impose its will on Lebanon; it simply wants a neutral state that will not pose a threat. If that were acceptable to Syria/Iran, the US would have no objection to which president runs Lebanon. The issue of the next president is now to be decided November 30. Failing an agreement, there is a high probability that trouble will erupt, plunging Lebanon back into the chaos it experienced through the 1980s and 1990s. The outgoing president - anti-Syrian - has declared a state of emergency and asked the army to keep peace. Hezbollah and Company say - correctly we are told - that there is no constitutional authority for an outgoing president to do this. But we feel no sympathy for Hezbollah/Syria/Iran at the lack of fair play because they are not playing fair either. Indian Troops To Afghanistan: From Mandeep Singh Bajwa Our readers will recall that in our November 24/25 update we'd posed to Mr. Bajwa how India could send troops to Afghanistan in the face of Pakistani opposition. His reply is below. The move isn't serious at all. Just kite-flying by some analysts to enrage the Leftists who are everybody's favorite target nowadays. True, the US hasn't asked because of Pakistani objections. But India can't just let Afghanistan go the Taliban way because NATO nations' threshold of casualty-tolerance are very small. There's too much at stake in the country right now. There are a number of Indian companies working on development projects including the Zaranj-Dilaram highway. The strategic implications are only too obvious. A friendly Afghan Govt will keep Pakistan on the tenter-hooks for all time to come. Then there's the matter of Indian interests in Central Asian oil and gas. India will make vigorous efforts to keep the Taliban and by implication Pakistan away. If that involves sending troops I don't think the Govt will flinch. Public opinion will support any such move. Oil at $99 in Singapore market this morning. Factors are said to be the colder than normal weather is expected in the US for the next few days and the US dollar keeps weakening. Your editor is doing his own protest at $3+/gallon heating oil. He is keeping the house thermostat at 10 centigrade day and night. He has to admit this is not as easy in one's sixties as it was in one's fifties, but it has to be done. Budgets have to be adhered to. Normally your editor's maximum temperature tolerance is 18 centigrade, and 15 degrees inside is perfect. No one visits him except his youngest, to whom 10 centigrade means he must wear a light sweater - unbuttoned, of course, and Mrs. Rikhye, who simply keeps her outside wear, boots, hat, and gloves on. So we are all managing well. Saudi Says Woman Confesses To Affair Readers will recall the case of a Saudi woman who was gang-raped by seven men and was given a sentence of 90 lashes for being in a car with a man not her husband. The punishment was increased to 200 lashes when her lawyer protested the sentence. For protesting he is likely to lose his license. Perhaps he can find work in a Macdonald's or something. Meanwhile, the rapists were given nominal sentences of 2-5 years or so, increased to 3-9 years when the woman's sentence was increased. Well, Saudi has been quite upset with the unusual attention this matter has received. It has said international criticism is interference in its affairs. Now it has said that the woman confesses to having an affair with the man in whose car she was when attacked. May be offer Saudi our famous unsolicited Orbat.com advice? Please shut up with the explanations already, because you just make it worse each time. Strange that the woman did not confess to an affair while on trial. Given the Saudi legal system is completely opaque, and given she no longer has a lawyer, might one suspect a teeny weeny bit of pressure on her to say she was having an affair? Next, so what if she was having an affair. That makes it okay to be gang-raped by seven men? This attitude is going to infuriate outsiders even more than they are already angry. Further, as we understand Islam, rape is a crime even worse than murder. So, if your law says she has to be given 200 lashes, the men need to be stoned to death. Orbat.com is objecting to the light sentences the men have been given, not to the sentence given to her. The thing with Saudi Arabia is that it is always ready to sneer at how immoral the west is given that in most situations men and women do as they want in the privacy of their homes. But here we are faced with an anomaly. We cannot speak for countries other than the US, but in America these men would be looking at 20-years to life for gang-rape. It would not matter that the woman was having an affair. We are not certain that this point would even be allowed into evidence. So isn't a bit odd that the immoral America takes crimes against women a lot more seriously than the virtuous Saudi Arabia? We again bring our readers attention to this story because it shows what Saudi Arabia is all about. It is not a society that is acceptable to civilized people. This is not about Islam, but about a bunch of degenerates using Islam to justify their perversities. If Saudi Arabia were just some insignificant country, we wouldn't bother. But this country is the banker for Terrors Wars all over the world. It is more than a banker: one report we saw the other day and meant to carry said 40% of foreign fighters in Iraq are Saudi. If the US could justify its invasion/occupation of Afghanistan as counter-terrorism, it needs to invade/occupy/breakup Saudi Arabia even more urgently. Afghanistan was not the source of global terror. Saudi Arabia is. 0230 GMT November 24-25, 2007 Apologies for the delayed updates. The editor has been battling allergies/colds/sinus-infections/laryngitis/bronchitis for weeks. The list of ailments sounds impressive, but for some reason, at a guess, about a quarter of the Washington DC region seems to be down with some combination of the above and about one-on-ten seems quite ill. Theories abound: chief culprit is said to be unseasonably warm October and November which has extended Washington's deadly allergy season - about the longest got a world capital - which normally runs April-September. The editor's theory is that we in Washington have compromised immune systems because of extreme stress. As a schoolteacher one is particularly vulnerable because one is in close contact with the kids, and you get serial infections: you get sick from a couple of the kids; by the time you and they have recovered another batch of kids is sick. The editor cannot take off because his kids completely fall apart when he is not there.  We are required to following a daily lesson pacing guide; if your classes get behind - as invariably happens with all but the very best substitute teachers - the mess up is so serious that most teachers, unless they are about to die, stagger off to school. Of course, there we play our part in getting everyone sick, but this is America: you have to work regardless of being sick or not. No one is bothered about the low quality of output when teachers and kids alike are passing bugs around left, right, and center. Dispatch from Mandeep Singh Bajwa Our South Asia correspondent returned from a visit to Pakistan for a wedding, and this is the unedited communication he sends. Kindly keep in mind he is simply sharing his thoughts; this is not a substitute for a rigorous analysis which he may do if he has time. Training in the Pakistan Army  seems to be at a low ebb. Winter collective training is rather low-key as it was last year too.T he emphasis is on enhancing skills useful in low-intensity conflict and MOUT. Morale is at an all-time low. As it has always been, their assessment of the Indian Army's capabilities is way off the mark. (Editor's note: the Pakistan Army has traditionally severely underestimated its adversary's capabilities with predictable consequences in all four wars.) On return was away to the Jat Regiment Reunion at Bareilly. I must say the Indian Army's training is pretty hi-tech. The Army's move to be network-enabled by 2009 and network-centric by 2012 is in advanced stages of progress. They show all the signs of being able to cope with a superpower role. India's not unduly worried about Taliban gains in NWFP/FATA. It rather suits the Indians to have a break-away Province on Pakistan's western border. The likely effects on Afghanistan are however worrying. In fact the situation in that country and the mess-up by NATO are causing alarm. Some influential observers are advocating the deployment of Indian troops if necessary to shore up the ISAF. Privately, at the moment. My guess is that 6 Mountain Division (Editor: this is an AHQ reserve formation) will be geared up to deploy to Afghanistan if the Government of India takes a decision to send forces to keep Indian interests alive. Along with one of the RAPIDs. 24, most likely. (Editor: RAPIDs are divisions with one armored brigade and 2-3 infantry brigades. This particular formation is not a reserve and is normally deployed in a holding role. But at this time there is no possibility of trouble with Pakistan). We replied to Mr. Bajwa that the Indians had so far not offered troops for ISAF because they hadn't been asked by the Americans. Pakistan considers Afghanistan is bailiwick, moreover, the Taliban is wholly supported by Pakistan. Islamabad will oppose tooth and nail any plan that puts 40,000 Indian troops into its sphere of influence, both because that number would seriously undermine the Taliban's successes as well as Pakistani influence. To support that many troops India would have to utilize Pakistani territory for logistics support; even if it is all done under the ISAF and not an Indian soldier sets foot in Pakistan, we do not see Pakistan agreeing. Pakistan benefits from ISAF/US related expenditure/military aid and the payoff is marginal because Pakistan does the very least it can to "combat" the Taliban. But if India lands up in Afghanistan in force, the benefits of cooperation with the west are far outweighed by the costs. Incidentally while this move is very much just private talk, two points are worth noting. First, the ISAF commander will have to be an Indian because India will contribute 2/3rd of ISAF troops. Second, the Government of India will face no domestic political opposition because the deployment will be seen as a big blow to Pakistan. Re. Iraq, India was willing to send its 17th Mountain Division to Kurdistan before things started heading south in that country. Kurdistan was a very quiet sector and the Indians have good relations with the Kurds as well as with the Iraqis. But even before security began to deteriorate starting February 2006, the opposition within India's ruling coalition and dominant Congress party was so extreme that we wonder how the Government actually warned the division for an Iraq deployment. There was no way in which Indian political parties and people would agree to fight what they believe is Mr. Bush's imperial war against a third world country. Mr. Bajwa sent his reply to our comments; we will publish them Monday. A New Take On Mrs. Bhutto and the Pakistani Generals Benazir Bhutto Behaving Badly is the better title for this post. Kamran Khan is a very experienced Pakistani journalist, Two days ago he provided the best explanation of what is happening with Ms. Bhutto. We'd picked up much the same by way of unconfirmed talk; we were not sufficiently comfortable with our sources to put up the information. To summarize Mr. Kamran's story; our information where it adds to his story is within parentheses. The Pakistan generals are 100% behind President Musharraf and his declaration of emergency. (Ms. Bhutto, on returning to Pakistan, immediately reverted to her wildly impulsive and intemperate mode of decision making and speech. Instead of quietly working with President Musharraf as per the agreement brokered by the US/UK and negotiated with Ms. Bhutto by General Kiyani, the Pakistani general of all held in the greatest esteem by the west and Pakistanis alike) Ms. Bhutto immediately began pushing the western agenda by, among other things, calling for the US to suspend military aid to Pakistan. (The reason she did this is that she gave herself over to an inflated sense of her own power and believed, within a very days of landing up, that she didn't need to keep her agreement with the President; she thought with western support she could overthrow him, reign in the military, and rule on her own. This was an amazingly immature and misconceived decision.) The military, astonished and dismayed by her turning her back on power-sharing agreements so carefully negotiated (and as far as the military was concerned, with an overabundance of compromise from its side) reacted by deciding to make sure Ms. Bhutto did not become Prime Minister of Pakistan. The one thing the military cannot tolerate is a direct attack on its power. This is a simple proposition that Mr. Kamran puts forth; besides the authenticity conferred by his admirable reputation, it has the virtue of elegantly explaining everything that has been happening in Pakistan. That the west in general and the western press has remained spectacularly clueless about how quickly Ms. Bhutto threw away her big chance, and that the west is now backing a lame horse, renders 100% irrelevant what anyone in the west has been saying. Ms. Bhutto is yesterday's news. Now, anyone who knows her and is objective enough not to be taken in by her being a modern, pro-western woman with impeccable liberal credentials - Harvard and Oxford, what else does anyone want, it was obvious from the start she was a weak reed on which to build the west's hopes for a democratic Pakistan. Your editor, for one, has been watching the whole show with much hilarity. But even he did not think Ms. Bhutto would crash and burn so rapidly. Incidentally, Mr. Kamran says that President Musharraf told the generals he was ready to both retire and to relinquish power if they thought it in the interests of Pakistan. They refused. We've said before we believe any coup contender knows he would be crazy to try and run Pakistan at this juncture; let President Musharraf do the job. If he succeeds, fine, no coup is needed. If he fails, that would be the time to move against him. Pakistan's generals are tough, disciplined, and experienced in the ways of power. We believed she would be done in ASAP by the generals, who according to what we hear, are completely unprepared to give up power to either of the two ex-PMs, even while they believe the military has outstayed its welcome and that a return to civilian government is needed. We believed they would give her rope to hang herself. We sure as heck didn't figure that they didn't have to give her rope. She wove it herself, mighty quick. Continue to archived news DEC 2007 NOV 2007 OCT 2007 SEP 2007 AUG 2007 JUL 2007 JUN 2007 MAY 2007 APR 2007 MAR 2007 FEB 2007 JAN 2007 2006 DEC 2005 NOV 2005 2004 2003

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