0230 GMT May 31, 2006
Zarqawi Fights Back In Ramadi The Washington Post reports that Al Qaeda is essentially the ruling authority in Ramadi. Eleven tribal chiefs supporting the US/Iraq government have been killed in recent months. US Marines are confined to a few blocks; the article does not mention Iraq Army forces. People are quoted as wishing the US would clear Ramadi as it did Fallujah - AQ is now hated in Anbar Province - and are fleeing the city in anticipation of an offensive even though US denies it has any such plans.
Normally we are second to none in slamming the WashPo, but we note that (a) the US ambassador to Iraq has himself said the situation is out of control and (b) two battalions of the 2nd Brigade, 1st Armored Division have been sent from the Kuwait-based theatre reserve to bolster the Marines.
USMC has been asking for more troops for Ramadi for a year; of course, given the political climate this was not feasible, and now US/Iraq are paying the price. Readers will recall that after Fallujah was cleared, Ramadi should have been next, but nothing was done. Interestingly, Fallujah appears firmly under US/Iraq control.
Somalia Fighting Reader marcopetroni sends an article by an Italian agency saying fighting continues in Mogadishu. A warlord's forces have occupied the main hospital and are using it as an outpost. The UN has mumbled something about this leaves the warlord open to charges of war crimes; also eligible for charges are any militia leaders involved in the fighting because they have disrupted humanitarian supplies. The problem is, the warlord may well ask: "How many divisions does Kofi Annan have?"
For a graphic of the Mogadishu situation, go to http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/5029722.stm.
East Timor Gangs that are cleared from a particular residential area come back when peacekeeping troops move to another threatened locality. In at least one case the troops have arrested members of a gang. The Australian commander says his troops are making an impact but time is required.
Yesterday looting and burning continued. No deaths were reported.
Kabul Rioting BBC says part of the reason for the rioting after a US military truck with defective brakes hit several civilian vehicles is that people are starting to get fed up that international aid has not improved their lives. We are not sure if this is a fact or a perception: the Taliban had just about run the Afghan economy into the ground. There is ample evidence of continuing improvements in the lives of ordinary people.
One witness tells BBC the problem is that earlier the US used to apologize for accidents and pay compensation, but has stopped doing so.
If this is true, the US government is being insanely stupid and deserves all the grief it is getting.
0230 GMT May 30, 2006
Correction: Civil War In Iraq? The story we talked about yesterday comes from an article written for the Washington Post Outlook section by a scholar who works for an American think tank. There is no indication he is Iraqi.
Anti-US Riots in Kabul after a truck with a speeding US convoy ploughed into several civil vehicles and killed up to 4 people. The US says fast-traveling is a neccessary security tactic. This is true, but then one should not have ones bases inside the city. 7 or more people were killed in the riots.
Allies Kill Up To 50 Taliban in airstrikes against militants meeting in Helmand Province. Confirmation is awaited because the location is remote and at time of the report police were still to reach the site. Five senior Taliban leaders are thought to be among the dead.
Mullah Dadullah Not Captured says Bill Roggio. He appeared on Al Jazzera TV and says the Taliban is winning and in control of SW Afghanistan. In which case he is winning against himself: NATO is at present deployed in SE Afghanistan, and is expanding into previously unpatrolled areas. What we are seeing, Mr. Roggio has noted several times, is not a Taliban offensive but a NATO offensive.
UN Casualties In DRC One Nepalese Army UN soldier is dead and seven missing, believed captured, in fighting with rebels the UN/DRC Army is seeking to disarm. 30 UN troops were accompanying several hundred DRC soldiers.
0230 GMT May 29, 2006
Civil War In Iraq? An Iraqi who has spent much time back in the country says the nation is in a de facto civil war, but people are hesitating to call it that because they don't want things to get worse. Our good friend Al-Sadr is at the forefront of killing Sunnis, though the Najaf-based Badr Brigades - who want to get rid of Al-Sadr - are also doing their part. Shia anger is fueled by the injustices of the past, the insurgency launched by Sunnis after the fall of Saddam, and the guest status Sunnis accorded to Zarqawi.
Sunnis are retaliating in their areas by killing Shias. Both sects are forcing people out of mixed areas so that de facto ethnic cleansing is taking place.
We've said almost from the start Sunnis and Shias cannot live together: its not just Saddam who repressed the majority Shias, it was the Turkish Empire/Caliphate that put the Sunnis in charge of the 3 provinces that became Iraq. Repression goes back centuries. Iraq needs to be broken up into 3 independent states with the US maintaining cordial relations with the Shia states, and acting as protectors of the Sunni and Kurd states.
If the US doesn't want to see that happen, then the remedy is quite simple. Send 250,000 more troops to Iraq for between 10-30 years. Look at the massive effort required in the Balkans just to stop people from killing each other. every part of Yugoslavia has succeeded, yet no one is talking about the problem being over because the "wrong" ethnic group is present in numbers in several of the new republics, like Kosovo in Serbia and the Serb majority areas of Bosnia Herzegovina. BH is being kept together by force; and now that Montenegro has decided to go its own way, the problem of the considerable Serb numbers remains.
Overall, US/Europe/NATO has done a commendable job in the Balkans, though we are still quite wroth that till the US took the lead the Euros were unwilling/unable to intervene. No one is willing to help the US in Iraq, so either a split has to be accepted along with an orderly transfer of ethnic groups, or there is going to be bloodshed and ethnic cleansing.
We've said earlier the Sunni states - Saudi and Egypt in particular, will go quite bonkers with rage if the US allows Iraq to be split. Our answer to that would be: "why don't you all send 250,000 troops to help us, and why don't you convince the Shias and Kurds to accept them." Its past time the US empowered these states to wipe their behinds on their own.
Letter to the Editor: UK 16th AA Brigade's First Action KG Widmerpool writes: No doubt you recall the heavy fighting that took place round Musa Qala last week. Hundreds of Taliban were reported to have assaulted Afghan police there but were eventually driven off with heavy casualties.
The Sunday Times of London now fills in some additional details. The Pathfinder Platoon of 16 Air Assault Brigade arrived in time for the pursuit of the fleeing Taliban 'deep in enemy territory'. Bumping along the mountainous terrain in their Land Rovers, the Pathfinder Platoon called in air strikes by everything from B1 bombers to French Super Etendards; they took tea at a -shura- with town elders; and repulsed a Taliban ambush (perhaps the first direct engagement between British infantry and the Taliban this year). They are due to be relieved by American SF at the weekend; the Pathfinders will then have well deserved hot meals and showers -- their first in 14 days. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2089-2200103,00.html
Their experiences seem to me an example of Coalition warfare done properly (Afghans, Brits, Yanks, even the French...). Earlier this week, the -Telegraph- reported that significant numbers of British troops ('more than 100') 'helped Afghan soldiers and police fight off attacks by hundreds of Taliban fighters'. The British also deployed their Apache gunships 'in combat operations for the first time ever'.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/05/23/wafg23.xml
According to the article, British officers have 'blasted away the political smokescreen that was laid to smooth the passage of British troops to Afghanistan and made clear that British and Nato forces are ready for combat'. I don't know what the typical British voter or politician may have allowed himself to believe, but it must have been obvious to British commanders from the start that their 'peacekeeping' deployment would actually mean warfighting.
Despite the
misgivings of many Western citizens about Iraq, and the 'War on Terror'
in general, at least in Afghanistan the Europeans and Canadians seem
ready and willing to fight. Whether one considers the latest surge in
fighting a sign of Coalition or Taleban assertiveness, the increased
presence of both Nato and Taleban forces in the southern provinces
ensures a very busy summer this year. I for one am glad that Nato is
together in fighting this one.
0230 GMT May 28, 2006
Iran Rejects Direct Talks With US Over Iraq says Times London, and that is Teheran's right. We'd like to see an end, however, to the pathetic blubbering so many in the west - including in the US - are making about the necessity of direct talks with Iran on the N-issue. Why is it the US has to talk to Iran about the N-matter but Iran finds it inconvenient to talk to the US about the former's interference in Iraq?
And given Iran lied for 18 years about its N-program, that it has said it will not give up its program, the failure of 2 years of talks sponsored by the Euro 3, and that in the local press Iranian officials boast about taking the west for a ride on the N-issue, can someone tell us the point of more talks?
Fighting Resumes In Mogadishu as warlord militias seek to recover their losses in ground to Islamic militias. BBC as of 1445 GMT yesterday said death toll was 13, after 60 killed in Thursday's fighting.
More Fighting In Dili, E. Timor as previously fired army soldiers band with militias to attack localities in the capital. Among the atrocities is the machinegunning of 10 unarmed police who had surrendered to the army after the later attacked their police station. A single E. Timor is said to be responsible, but since he was not handed over to the UN by his fellows, they are complicit in his crime.
Security of Dili has been handed over to the Australian Army, which sent armored vehicles to the worst affected localities and is arranging talks with rebel leaders.
900 Australian soldiers are in the capital and 400 more are arriving. They have focused on keeping rival gangs apart and providing security to the locals and key points as much as is possible with their limited numbers. Dili is more akin to a large village, by the way, than a city; nonetheless, the Australians cannot assure security by themselves and reinforcements from other countries are awaited.
Though they have been fired on, so far as is known the Australians have not fired back as yet.
Hamas Back On Gaza Streets as of yesterday, Xinhua of China reports.
Sri Lanka Rebels Agree To Fresh Talks with the government. But there is less than meets the eye. The talks in Norway are aimed at assuring the security of peace monitors. The LTTE looks to be seeking to burnish its international image after the EU declared it a terror organization.
"Less Punishment For Killing A Dog" is what the residents of Haditita expect for Marines accused of killing up to 24 civilians.
Hmmmm. We didn't know Iraq had punishments for killing a dog. Undoubtedly an atrocity took place here. Nonetheless, investigations are still to be complete, and trials have to be held. Even Saddam, so beloved of the Iraqis, is getting due process. At the same time, the Iraqis are highly skilled at manipulating the vapid and dishonest Western media, primarily for hopes of compensation, or - if it is already paid, as in the case of the civilians at Haditita, for more money or for money to more people.
No one is going to hold a brief for the Marines involved if they are found guilty. We do not buy the "under extreme stress" thesis that is now being spread about. Tens of thousands of Marines have served in equally stressful situations in Iraq and have not resorted to murdering civilians in cold blood. At the same time, no one needs the gratuitous insults the Haditita residents are hurling at America. If the Marines hadn't helped liberate Haditita and a hundred cities like it, the lives of the locals would definitely be worth less than those of dogs if their beloved former ruler was in a bad mood.
And are we to take it that the beloved Zarqawi and his gang value the lives of the people of Haditita to be more valuable than the lives of dogs? These are the people the Marines were fighting. Its good to remember a favorite tactic of the Zarqawi lot: lock people inside their houses, fire at US forces from the houses, and vamoose before the retaliation arrives. Instant civilian atrocity.
Again, none of this justifies what the Marines are said to have done. If found guilty, put them away.
As an aside, we'd love to know if, in writing their story, did the media make any effort to seek out Iraqis who might have had a better word for America and the Marines?
People To whom The Lives of Iraqis Are Worth Less Than Those of Dogs These people are Iraqis themselves. The coach of the Iraqi and two of his players were shot dead in Baghdad for wearing shorts. The, to protest this presumably huge infraction of Islamic law, one of the killers stole the car the men were driving.
Fifteen members of the national taekwondo team have been reported kidnapped bear Fallujah-Ramadi - the same province where Haditita is - and are being held for $100,000 ransom. No doubt this is also the fault of the Marines: if they had not helped overthrow Saddam, he would still rule, and would shoot the kidnappers and their children, fathers, mothers, sisters and brothers dead. Knowing that, the kidnappers would not have struck.
We have a thought: why not set Saddam free to sort out Anbar Province?
Republicans Lose Support of Suburban Voters says a US News and World Report Poll. By a majority, they supported Mr. Bush in the 2000 and 2004 elections. Now by more than a 6-4 majority they indicate they will vote against the GOP in November.
0230 GMT May 27, 2006
Hang These Men A Shia militia in Basra says it will sabotage oil infrastructure unless it is paid off. The government of Iraq needs to round up this militia and hang them all. No government anywhere in the world can function if it tolerates this kind of situation.
Having made our position clear, let us also make clear we do not blame the Shia militia for acting as it is. For 30 years Iraq was run by a gangster, so if some Iraqis think that is the right way to behave, they can be forgiven.
We blame the US government. America win the peace in Germany and Japan by talking about human rights and law courts and trials? Of course not. Both countries were put under martial law and violators knew they would be shot. Did anyone accuse America of betraying American principles when martial law was enforced? No one did. Everyone understood it was neccessary.
We are quite aware the US has NOT been militarily in any position, from the start, to enforce the peace. We are not blaming the US military. It was given only a third of the troops needed to keep the peace. But after the initial mistake was made, the government should have mobilized US reserves and sent the additional troops. If it was not willing to pay the domestic political price, it should have declared victory and left.
It is intolerable that no one is being held responsible for these egregious mistakes. American troops keep dying and getting wounded, colossal sums of taxpayer money are being spent, American foreign policy is at a standstill, and what is the price being paid by those men and women who made these mistakes? None. This is what is immoral about the Iraq situation, not the actions of the Basra militia.
Hamas Backs Down and withdraws its newly created police force from the streets after clashes with Fatah security forces. We were only to try to help with law and order, says Hamas, and we will integrate our men with the Palestine forces.
As far as Orbat.com knows, Fatah, which controls the security forces, has no interest in merging any Hamas men into its forces.
Afghan President Finds Many Dumb "Civilians" at a Kandahar hospital. He was visiting civilians wounded in the US air strike against Taliban who ran from the religious school they had forcibly taken over to people's homes when US forces attacked. Karzai was told civilians locked their homes but Taliban broke in any fired on US forces. The Afghan president sardonically noted the presence of several well-built men who were unable to speak. He said these were probably the foreign fighters.
This incident is unusual in that the locals themselves acknowledged the presence of the Taliban among them, though they said the insurgents had arrived uninvited, fleeing Afghan/US forces. Though this is more true of Iraq than Afghanistan, the locals immediately start insisting everyone killed or wounded is innocent as a way of bargaining for more compensation from the government. Since the Great American Media doesn't bother investigating, readers are left with the impression the government could be lying outright or not telling the whole truth.
This time, since the village was near Kandahar and many villagers were taken there - and because the villagers were truthful - we have confirmation that what Afghan/US spokespersons said is correct.
George Is at It Again Now George Galloway, British MP, says assassinating Tony Blair is justifiable. He doesn't advocate it, he says, and he would report any attempt he came to know about to the police. But the attempt itself would be moral.
He further adds that Mr. Bush and Mr. Blair couldn't punch their way out of paper bags, and he's willing to fight them together. He was the best fighter in school, he says.
Now, if George believes assassination would be moral, if he reported one such attempt to the police, he'd be engaged in an immoral act.
Further, we do know Mr. Galloway also can't fight his way out of a paper bag. But he doesn't need to. He needs simply to keep talking and the subsequent production of hot air will explode the paper bag.
0230 GMT May 25, 2006
Palestine President Tells Hamas To Recognize Israel or he will order a national referendum on the issue. Times London says this is a big gamble to save his weakened presidency. If it works, it will be a good thing for the region.
Australian Commandos Land In East Timor An advanced contingent of 150 has taken control of the airport to prepare the way for the arrival of 800+ other troops including helicopters and armored vehicles.
New Zealand is sending 60 soldiers. Portugal and Malaysia have agreed to send troops at the request of the East Timor government.
Israel To Release Weapons To Palestine Authority to help strengthen Fatah against Hamas. Israeli right-wingers are objectives but, in our opinion, are missing the point. This is not time for ideology but for being practical. Fatah of yesteryear was Israel's enemy; to day, with Hamas challenging Fatah, the latter is Israel's friend.
Fighting Resumes In Mogadishu Reader marcopetroni forwards an article saying yesterday 20 people were killed in renewed full-scale fighting. The Islamic militias are making gains. At issue this time is a small airport controlled by a warlord; the narcotic leaf khat is brought in here from Kenya and the Islamic militias want the airport so as to control the trade.
Invisibility Cloak On The Way Associated Press reports that thanks to research funded by US Defense Advanced Projects Research Agency, an invisibility shield is now considered theoretically possible; the material science/technology has to be tackled. A prototype shield against infrared and microwaves may be ready within 18 months.
Renegade Pakistan N-Chief Under Heightened Security BBC reports that just when Pakistan has said its investigation into the nefarious activities of the Chief Proliferator, Dr. AQ Khan, former head of Pakistan's N-program, is over, security around his house where he is under arrest has been tightened.
The US has been demanding access to Dr. Khan. Pakistan says it should be trusted to conduct needed investigations.
This got a few snarfs and laughs from us. Trusted by whom to conduct what? Pakistan's top generals were hand in glove with Dr. Khan in the sale of technology and materials; they've had ample time to clean up the trail, and they can be trusted not to hand Dr. Khan over to the Americans. "We Haf Vays Of Making You Talk" is the American motto; in the matter of Dr.Khan they will not have to press very hard. We are told his contingency plan in the event he is handed to the Americans is to tell all, very fast, in exchange for protection. He still has lots of documentary evidence implicating senior Pakistani leaders that the government has not been able to get away from him.
0230 GMT May 25, 2006
Iraq To Assume Security in 16 of 18 Provinces By Year End The new Iraqi prime minister has given the word that Mr. Bush and Mr. Blair have been anxiously waiting for: except for Baghdad and Anbar Provinces, Iraqi forces will take charge of all other provinces by year end. By end 2007 the plan is for the last two provinces to also be under Iraqi control.
Our reaction? About time, mate. The troops need to get back and prepare for the next mission: datelines Damascus and Teheran. 90% of the problem in Iran today is Shias killing Shias, and that is NOT America's problem. Protecting Iraq against foreign insurgents yes. Domestic politics no. Let the Badr militia take care of Al Sadr.
Major Clash In Afghanistan says BBC, with Afghan sources giving up to 60 Taliban killed and 5 Afghan soldiers/police. This action was in Uruzgan Province which has seen a resurgence in Taliban activity along with Helmand and Kandahar. Part of the reason for the increase is NATO/US/Afghanistan are moving to assert control of these provinces which have never been under central control and because the Taliban have allied with the drug lords even as the allies seek to crack down on the opium trade.
The disarming of the warlords, which had to be done, left a power vacuum which Afghan forces have not been able to fill as yet. Training of Afghan forces is done quite differently from the way the Iraqis are trained: it is a long drawn out process and trained units are introduced very carefully to the battlefield. But this system works: there has been effectively no case we know of where the Afghans have cut and run, which was all too often the case with the Iraqis.
It is not just the Army is turning in an excellent performance, the police have been doing a superb job and have taken the brunt of several major attacks.
Mogadishu Clashes Resume As we had predicted - and no credit to us, anyone could have predicted - the ceasefire between Islamist and warlord groups broke down: six are dead and six wounded, mostly civilians.
Indian Army In Major Exercise Mandeep Bajwa tells us the Indian Army is wrapping up a major exercise to test new doctrine subsequent to the creation of a new army command last year. Indian Army commands function both as administrative regional HQs and control 1-4 corps each in wartime, function as traditional army HQs.
Mali Rebels Withdraw to the hills after looting two army bases of weapons, ammunition, electronics and vehicles. They have released prisoners. The Mali army has reinforced the area.
"The Australian" newspaper says US/UK will announce withdrawals from Iraq this week and forces will be drawn down to 100,000 US/5,000 UK troops by year end.
Foreign Troops for E. Timor which has again been hit by internal fighting; once again the issue of dismissed army soldiers is the immediate provocation. Dili says it has asked Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia and other for troops. Australia and New Zealand have small contingents on standby.
0230 GMT May 24, 2006
Cartoon Riots In Iran: Teheran Gets Its Own Medicine Mike Thompson sends a news report saying Azeris in Iran rioted at the publication of a cartoon that - as nearly as we can understand - appears to compare them to cockroaches.
So the newspaper that ran the cartoon has been shut down. It happens to be state-owned.
"Da Vinci Code" So meanwhile back in the west, there hasn't been a single riot or death threat because of a Hollywood movie that Catholics worldwide find deeply offensive to their faith. Among other things it suggests Christ was married to Mary Magdalene and had a child with her. In case some of our readers don't recall this, Magdalene was allegedly a prostitute who was reformed by Jesus. Moreover, Jesus's celibacy is a central tenet of their faith for most Christians.
Also meanwhile, we have the edifying spectacle of the entertainer Madonna doing various unmentionable things in her latest show including a mock upside-down crucifixion. No riots as far as we know.
We realize none of this impresses Islamists, who will say: "just the fact the Christian west is not rioting shows they are degenerate, please don't say we should not kill you on account of your having mocked Islam just because the debauched west is not rising up against this movie."
Germans Don't Doubt "Clash Of Civilizations" While Americans of many faiths and political persuasions don't believe there is a clash of civilizations between the west and Islam, the Jerusalem Post reports that the Germans - who tend to be quite politically liberal compared to Americans, don't seem to doubt that such a clash is underway.
A survey of 1076 Germans finds: 83% associated Islam with "fanaticism"; 71% say Islam is "intolerant"; 60% say it is "undemocratic"; 61% say a "clash of cultures" is underway; 91% believe Islam discriminates against women; 56% would back a ban on mosque construction in Germany as long as Saudi Arabia bans churches; 40% would accept constitutional limits on religious freedom for sake of national security.
But - and this important - two-thirds blame religious fanatics, not the religion itself, for this state of affairs.
Israelis Capture Top Hamas West Bank Commander says Times London. He is believed responsible for the deaths of 60 Israelis.
What a man! No hesitation in sacrificing the lives of Arab youngsters by sending them on suicide bombing missions, but when his turn comes, he puts his hands in the air.
Hamas says his arrest is a serious provocation during a period of calm. Word of advice from the wise for Hamas: there is no statute of limitations on murder. Wait till the Israelis start working him over: then you're really going to be provoked because he is going to squeal on you.
Trouble In Mali BBC says persons said to be Tuareg rebels have taken two two Mali army bases in the northeast. A Tuareg rebellion ended in 1998 with a ceasefire and integration of many rebels into the Mail Army; some have deserted and are thought to be behind this uprising. BBC says its not clear if the attacks are part of a genuine rebellion or in furtherance of criminal activity, which is rampant in the area.
It is rumored oil has been discovered in the area.
Nigeria Gives 2 Oil Blocks To Delta Companies in an attempt to provide a stake to the Niger Delta peoples in oil located in their territory. If this works, it may reduce attacks on Nigeria's oil infrastructure.
0230 GMT May 23, 2006
Orbat.com's Position On Pakistan's Support To The Taliban We've been asked why we have not been covering Pakistan's support to the Taliban.
First, let us clarify that according to our sources, who are at levels of intelligence lowest to highest, Pakistan's ISI is - again - supporting the Taliban with money, training, and manpower.
Second, to us this is no news.
Third, the ISI lot are not rouge factions. ISI is doing what it has been ordered to do, and only the flimsiest of plausible deniability covers has been required.
Fourth, a hostile Afghanistan is deeply dangerous to Pakistan. For "hostile" read independent, India-allied, western oriented, and hating Pakistan's guts for what the Taliban - a Pakistani creation - did to to Afghanistan. Just as Iran must have N-weapons, Pakistan needs for the current situation in Afghanistan to be reversed back to where it was pre-US invasion. The rapid reestablishment of India's traditionally warm ties with Kabul, and the new Indian military/diplomatic/economic expansion into Central Asia further, and vastly, complicates things for Pakistan.
All this said, we want readers to keep in mind your editor is of Indian origin. It serves no purpose of ours, and damages our credibility, if we simply go on bashing Pakistan, even if it is with the truth. Your editor covered Pakistan very closely for 20 years and was always careful to give Pakistan's side on every issue, even to the cost of being officially labeled a Pakistani spy and agent.
There is only one solution to the problem of Pakistan, and absolutely no one wants to hear it: your editor has been saying this for three-and-a-half decades: Pakistan has to be brought back into India. 1947 has to be reversed. The process will be one involving 80 percent force and 20 percent other means. It will be fiercely resisted by Pakistan. It will take 50 years and - by your editor's estimate - 600,000 Indian dead to do the job: 100,000 in a war lasting 180-270 days and the rest in CI operations over half a century. The chances of India doing the job are zero. But India's failure to act - and the 100% certain failure of the democratic world to support India should it act - will have the most disastrous consequences India has faced in 200 to 500 years, depending on how you want to look at the past.
As far as your editor is concerned, the whole shmoo is no longer his concern. He has not been back to India in 15 years and has no plans to ever return. His children are settled in the US. His most pressing problem is how to pay his mortgage and credit cards. India - and the United States - can go look after themselves.
US Hunting Domestic Hezbollah Cells says New York Post. About a dozen Hezbollah operatives have been identified in New York City. The concern is they may be used to attack targets in case of war with Iran, and the search has become more urgent since reports that the Iranian president met with Hezbollah in Syria. The Iranian backed terror organization works out of Syria.
We don't need to add that should any trouble take place domestically because of Hezbollah, Syria is going to be a dead duck. The destruction visited on Afghanistan will be a minor side show compared to what will happen to Syria.
60 Taliban, 16 Civilians Die In US Strike US helicopters made a night strike against a Taliban compound in a Kandahar Province village. 20 Taliban were confirmed dead with another 40 to 60 believed killed - verification is underway.
The Taliban denied any of their men were killed, saying only civilians had died.
Unfortunately for the Taliban, this is one of those rare cases were the media talked to locals: this was possible because the locals arrives/were taken to a Kandahar city hospital for treatment. They told AP that Taliban insurgents had been hiding in their religious school after recent fighting in Kandahar; 16 civilians were killed when Taliban insurgents ran to shelter in individual homes. A villager said he counted 40-50 Taliban dead and about 50 civilians dead or wounded.
0230 GMT May 22, 2006
[1430 GMT] 60 Taliban, 16 Civilians Die In US Strike US helicopters made a night strike against a Taliban compound in a Kandahar Province village. 20 Taliban were confirmed dead with another 40 to 60 believed killed - verification is underway.
The Taliban denied any of their men were killed, saying only civilians had died.
Unfortunately for the Taliban, this is one of those rare cases were the media talked to locals: this was possible because the locals arrives/were taken to a Kandahar city hospital for treatment. They told AP that Taliban insurgents had been hiding in their religious school after recent fighting in Kandahar; 16 civilians were killed when Taliban insurgents ran to shelter in individual homes. A villager said he counted 40-50 Taliban dead and about 50 civilians dead or wounded.
Montenegro Votes To Quit Serbia The last vestige of the former Yugoslav Federation is destined to end: 55.5 percent of voters opted out of the union with Serbia. The bar was set at 55% and there were doubts if the figure would be met because turnout in Serb areas was heavy. Official results are still be announced and the opposition disputes provisional figures released so far.
Montenegro - literally the Black Mountains - was independent for centuries before World War I, after which it was forcibly made one of the six nations of Yugoslavia. A guerilla war of resistance was defeated. The Montenegrins have always been very proud the Muslim invasions of the Balkans never managed to subdue them.
Today the notion that an independent nation would be forced by the world community into a federation as part of another country may seem incomprehensible, but the Europeans and Americans wanted to stabilize the Balkans and avoid a repeat of World War I. Of course, the trigger for that war was Balkan instability, but the reason the war was fought was because Germany rising challenged the power of France and Britain. The war would have come about Balkans or no. also, of course, no one was thinking terribly straight after the just concluded horrors of the Great War,
Afghan Toll Now 175 Insurgents, 25 Allied Forces reports Bill Roggio, presently in Afghanistan. This figure does not mean that more fighting has taken place since the last reported big battles in Kandahar and Helmand provinces; rather, these are updated casualty figures.
Afghan government says it has 3 high-level Taliban officers in custody. There is still no word on if the One-Legged Mullah is among them.
UN Launches Operation Against DRC Rebels About 1000 UN troops from Bangladesh, Pakistan, and South Africa supported by Indian attack helicopters joined 3000 DRC Army troops to retake a town in Ituri district that has long been a stronghold of rebels. This is another in a series of offensives to bring Ituri, in Northeast Congo, back under government control. Elections are due in two months and the operation will improve security for citizens wishing to vote.
Al Qaeda Claims Attack On Fatah Security Chief The bomb attack wounded the chief and 10 others. AQ also threatened to kill the Palestine Authority president, Mahmood Abbas.
We are unsure if these developments are to be worried about. AQ are unwanted strangers inserting themselves in a complicated dispute; its hard to see any Palestine faction putting up with another player with its own agenda.
China Offers $1-Billion Grant To Nigeria Railways One of the ironies of China's worldwide search for oil is that China never hesitates to condemn western governments who "exploit" the third world for the sake of money, and now China is all over the globe, acting just like any western company. Nigeria is one country in which China is heavily invested oil-wise.
Now China is increasing its influence in Nigeria by offering a big grant to revitalize Nigeria's decrepit railways. China has to recover the money somehow, and we may assume that China's concern for the environment in Nigeria's oil producing area and its readiness to feed the immense network of Nigerian government corruption will be about the same as any western company's. In other words, China too will not give a darn as long as it gets the oil.
Happy Happy Joy Joy says reader Mike Thompson as he sends us an AFP story quoting President Castro's physician as saying the president will likely live to be 140. We are not making this stuff up: the story has a 4:47 PM US Eastern May 19, 2006 dateline.
"Where There Is Hunger There Is No Peace" reads a bumper sticker your editor saw today. One can appreciate the sentiment - that we should work toward ensuring the hungry get fed, without agreeing with the words. Hungry people don't create problems for anyone, they are too busy surviving.
And what are we supposed to do when people are going hungry? Its usually because of oppression by their own government, such as in Dafur, North Korea, and Zimbabwe. We wonder if the owner of the car would agree with us that only often only military action, or the threat of it, can overthrow the tyrants that impose hunger on their people by their failed policies.
We think its hard to be a liberal and - if one is to be realistic - oppose military force when the latter is used to better the lives of people. Afghanistan is one such example. Used be in America the liberals were the interventionists: FDR, Truman, John Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson come to mind. The conservatives opposed foreign wars and wanted America to mind its own business. Now the conservatives preach intervention and the liberals are opposed. Very confusing.
0230 GMT May 21, 2006
No Proof Yet Of Taliban Leader Mullah Dadullah's Capture No proof of this top insurgent's capture has yet been released by the Afghan government.
Media Conflating Allied And Taliban Offensives: Bill Roggio Bill is in Afghanistan, trying as always to provide an alternative to the Main Stream Media as he refers to the press. He says the Kandahar fighting has been initiated by the allies, and only the Helmand fighting is because of Taliban initiatives. He says the failure of the MSM to differentiate between the two situations has given the impression of a massive Taliban offensive, when the reality is more prosaic. Only in one incident - Qila Musa - did the Taliban mount a real offensive, and they lost.
Seven allied forces and 17 insurgents are reported dead in various incidents. The allied losses include 4 Afghan soldiers, 2 French SF troops, and an American.
Israel Kills Top Islamic Jihad Gaza Commander The Israelis seem to be have a field day exterminating terrorist commanders. Unfortunately, in this particular strike two women and a child in a nearby taxi were also killed. But also unfortunately, Palestine is a crowded place, opportunities to attack terrorists must be acted on immediately, and there are going to be collateral losses.
We were highly impressed by the charges laid by the Israelis against this particular gentleman. No doubt he deserved to die. But according to the Israelis, the latest act of violence personally committed by this bloody-handed terrorist was: firing a rocket that rocket that resulted in the death of - 30 chickens.
Islamic Jihad has vowed revenge. Yawn. God willing, it says, the Israelis will be made to drink from the same bitter cup from which the Jihad has been forced to drink. How much more evidence do these people need to prove that God is not willing? When faced with a foe as strong and implacable as Israel, the Palestinians, who are their own worst enemy, have only one option: non-violence.
3 Al Jazeera Cars Torched In Ramallah Local sources tell Jerusalem Post Hamas gunmen where responsible: Hamas is upset Al-Jazz did not cover a demonstration on Friday.
0230 GMT May 20, 2006
Taliban Leader Mullah Dadullah May Have Been Captured in Kandahar, Afghanistan, says Times London. The one-legged insurgent is one of the top Taliban commanders. Afghan government is conducting positive identification.
Jang of Pakistan says a man claiming to be the insurgent called a media source yesterday saying he was alive and well, with a band of 100 fearless warriors waiting to die and so on, and why would he lie about his identity.
The way things have been going, there are a lot of Taliban dying, so they are getting their wish.
Jang says a US source says their best information is that the Mullah has not been captured.
Meanwhile, yesterday 20 more people were killed in fighting, mostly Taliban. Fighting has died down.
EU Declares Tamil Tigers A Terrorist Organization This means fund-raising, diplomatic contacts, travel etc are banned. Some are saying this will push the Tigers into renewing the civil war because their situation will be internationally hopeless.
This kind of logic impresses no one. By any standards the Tigers qualify as a terrorist organization. The war has been going on for near 30 years, and all the international intervention on the Tigers' side has not brought the matter to a peaceful close. If it has to be war, it has to be war. And the Tigers will find it considerably harder to sustain operations with their lifelines to Europe severed.
Iraq Unity Government Formed - well, sort of, some critical portfolios like defense and interior are still the subject of last minute wrangling.
The lack of a government 5 months after elections is said to be the primary cause for the violence.
Iraq Progresses Meanwhile, Amir Taheri writing in Commentary magazine says there is much progress in Iraq. 1.2 million refugees have returned, the private sector is booming, Iraq is exporting foodstuffs - it has been a net food importer for years - and there is freedom of the press with 100 privately-owned publications - a total that cannot be matched in the Arab world; IMF says Iraqi economy is outperforming the rest of the region. This last is significant, at the same time, one should keep in mind extraordinary amounts of money are being poured into the country and that is going to boost the economy.
Equally important, Shias can now practice their religion. After the 1991 Shia uprising pilgrimages to Najaf were banned; last years 12 million pilgrims visited and 3000 clerics previously in exile have returned.
Iraq's Water Problem The media has had a lot of fun telling us how bad things are in Iraq because power is not available and clean water is not available and so on. We've discussed the power problem many times. First, maintenance of facilities was not done on a proper basis after Gulf I, so the US is faced with restoring post-2003 damage done by the Iraqis themselves, but has also had to spend much time and money on making up maintenance shortfalls. And whereas the rest of the country used to be starved for power to supply Baghdad, now power is distributed more equitably and then of course there are going to be shortages in Baghdad.
We are now told similar problems are afflicting the clean water program. Iraqi engineers used concrete pipes, for example, and these have a 20-30 year life span and have deteriorated beyond what the US finds acceptable. So the US is having to rebuild the water distribution network.
0230 GMT May 19, 2006
85 Taliban, 13 Afghan Police Die In Fighting Hundreds of Taliban attacked the town of Qila Musa (Musa's Fort) and were driven off by Afghan police. 13 policemen and 50 Taliban were killed. Afghan forces are pursuing the retreating insurgents.
In other fighting, Canadian troops killed 18 insurgents, and US killed 7, with up to 20 more dead in airstrikes.
We are impressed by the Taliban's show of force - and their extreme stupidity in making direct attacks. Of course, Taliban go after Afghan police rather than allied troops. But what they don't seem to understand is that the Afghan police and Army are a different kettle of fish altogether compared to the Iraqis. There is no sectarian divide in Afghanistan; the Afghanis clearly understand they are fighting for their country; and, because newspersons don't go to Afghanistan as they do to Iraq and because allied casualties are much lower, there has been little pressure to get out of Afghanistan. This has permitted patient training of the Afghan security forces.
This has paid off: most of the attacks are being beaten off by the police while the army goes on search and destroy operations.
A number of people remind us that fighting in Southern Afghanistan is only partly because of the Taliban's offensive. The Afghan government, backed by NATO, is determined to extend its control to areas where the government has never ruled. A lot of the opposition is coming from drug lords, warlords, and local criminal gangs,
New Hamas Security Force Clashes With Palestine Authority Police and two are hurt. President Abbas has declared the new force, set up to challenge the existing PA structure which he head, as illegal.
Mogadishu May Be Heading For More Trouble We'd reported earlier 5 members of a warlord's militia were killed in a raid by Islamic militia. The figure is 8. The problem has become that the Islamists beheaded some of the corpses: such mutilation of a dead body is considered a grave offense in Somalia. Retaliation is expected.
Indian Navy On Alert Mandeep S. Bajwa, our South Asia correspondent, says the Indian Navy is on alert because of the clashes between Sri Lankan naval forces and rebel LTTE Sea Tigers. Indian fishermen have been warned not to approach rebel infested water and the Indian Navy has requested the Sea Tigers, through informal channels, not to attack Indian fishermen if they stray into Sea Tiger areas.
Asked what the Indian Navy thinks of the situation, the Indian Navy's CNO said the matter was an internal affair of Sri Lanka and he could not comment.
Alligator Stories The Washington Post has been keeping us abreast of the alligator crisis in Florida. Apparently in recent weeks 3 people have been killed by alligators, more than in several years previously. We learn from the Post that alligators are live and let live creatures who have a fondness for people's dogs, but leave people alone if allowed to do so. The attacks may be because development is destroying the alligators' habitat.
Sad as that is, that's not our story. WashPo says an alligator invaded a home and was about to make a snack of the pet dog, when the lady of the house banged away at the alligator with her shotgun. The alligator fled and was apparently not seriously injured. But get this: the lady was cited by police for hunting without a license.
Note to self: at earliest opportunity get hunting license for human from state fish and game authorities. Your editor doesn't want to be caught on the wrong side of the law should his house be invaded and your editor bang away at the intruder with his shotgun.
0230 GMT May 18, 2006
Sao Paulo Death Toll Rises to 155 as police kill another 22 alleged gangsters, without providing details. Brazilian HR groups are worried that innocent people are being killed and they are worrying about the lack of details on the deaths of the alleged gangsters. No need to worry folks, we said yesterday the police are rounding up gangsters and executing them. If you need more details, than there we can't help.
Coincidentally the head of a cartel that the US says smuggled 15 tons/month of cocaine into the US was arrested in Sao Paulo after a 3-year investigation by Brazilian and US authorities.
President Lula of Brazil, a person we like immensely, had us in tears after saying that Brazilian legislators should not hurry into anti-gang legislation because of events in Sao Paulo: he is concerned there will be unpleasant unforeseen circumstances from legislation passed without thinking things through. There we agree with him. The tears are because Lula says Brazil didn't spend enough money on education in the last 30 years and these poor, poor babies have no jobs. We are so overcome we cannot continue...
We preferred the comment of a Sao Paulo resident who said all the gangsters need to die (CNN report).
Break In Mogadishu Ceasefire Five are killed when Islamist militia attacks a rival warlord.
In 1993, because 18 US troops were killed in a fail raid to kidnap Somalia's leading warlord, the US withdrew from the country, followed shortly by the UN mission. But now a long overdue bill has come due: the US has been back in Somalia for several years hunting terrorists; the fundamentalists have a strong foothold, and now the US is having to back warlords.
We do not mean the above comment to reflect on Mr. Bill Clinton. Mr. Ronald Regan, a staunch conservative, pulled the US out of Lebanon in 1982 after the bombing of the Marine barracks. It is true terrorists decided after Somalia that the US couldn't take casualties and were emboldened. Equally, however, the Lebanon withdrawal had an adverse impact on perceptions of US power and willingness to stay the course.
Suggestions the US back the Somali government are unrealistic: there is no government except in name, it is not even able to come to Mogadishu, it is composed of warlords, and any money given to the government will be used to settle scores with other factions and to increase private bank accounts. It will be a complete waste of money. Better to give the warlords $1 than to give the government $10.
Venezuela Doubles Required Royalty on Heavy Oil to 33%. This is not a smart move. Heavy oil is very expensive to extract, and though the royalty depends on the price of crude, paying 33% when your costs are - say $40 barrel and prices are $70 is a lot different from oil prices at $50. But perhaps the increase will persuade US companies to invest in American heavy oil.
This Is Really Funny US oil companies are not allowed to drill in Caribbean coastal waters because of pollution fears. But now China will be drilling 80 km off Florida's southern tip - on behalf of Cuba.
The waters between southernmost Cuba and Florida are 160 km wide, so the dividing line is 80 km. No way can US companies drill that close to shore. But Cuba can do as it wants on its side. So the profits will be split between Cuba and China, southernmost Florida is at great risk - the Chinese are not known for their environmental concern, especially if it is the US that will suffer, and the US can sit there twiddling its thumbs watching its enemies make money.
Thanks to reader Mike Thompson for sending us the heads up.
0230 GMT May 17, 2006
Sao Paulo Increasingly Back Under Control with the toll now at 130 dead, all but 39 of whom are suspected gangsters. The police toll has scarcely budged since Day 2 of the 6-day battle between gangsters and police. The violence was orchestrated by the leader of the state's biggest gang, to protest his transfer to a maximum security prison where he will not have the opportunities to run his empire from jail.
We are informed by our sources that the Sao Paulo police are enraged at the attacks on them and that the reason the gangster death toll has dramatically escalated even while police casualties have remained the same is that the police are rounding up gangsters and executing them. There is nothing unusual about this procedure in Brazil, or - we may add - in the editor's home country, India. In both countries the prevailing philosophy is live and let live, but if the criminals break the unwritten rules that are designed to ensure everyone just gets along, they are retaliated against with maximum force.
We have no problem with this method of crime control - in soft states criminals terrorize judges, witnesses and police, so that even though Amnesty International etc. might not approve, it becomes the only way to assure a modicum of law and order.
Our problem is reports in Times London that the state government has negotiated a ceasefire with the gang leader. Why? Isn't he supposed to put out of business? He has unleashed a murderous onslaught on the police and the solution is to negotiate with him? Seems to us its the usual 3rd world problem: too many politicians and bureaucrats are possibly in danger of losing their monthly supplementary incomes.
BBC says the state denies concessions to the gangsters.
IEA Says World Oil Demand Down By 300,000 Bbl/Day This is 100,000 bbl/day more than the previous estimate. Prices have eased slightly, but worry about Iran is keeping prices at $70/barrel.
Meanwhile Iran says it is importing essential requirements in case of sanctions, but that it does not believe these will be imposed. Iran is correct in its assumption if we are talking of a UN sanctions. A unilateral US blockade is another matter altogether.
Waziristan, North West Frontier Province, Pakistan BBC reports 8 militants and one soldier are dead after the former ambushed a security forces convoy. In a separate incident, two policemen were killed.
Venezuela Says May Sell F-16s to Iran This is a provocation to the US, plain and simple. Iran has no use for the aircraft except to examine the technology, moreover, the US is not about to give Venezuela approval for the sale. Venezuela will say the US breached the contract first, by clamping an arms embargo on the country; we doubt this line of argument is going to impress the US.
Platoons controlling 8-Km Front? Sounds incredible, but that's what the US Future Combat System aims to do by 2018 (report from military.com). Companies are to control 16 km, battalions 30, and brigade combat teams 75 km. In the editor's day, 25-50 km was considered plenty for a division; with FCS a division would control a 150 km front.
0230 GMT May 16, 2006
Eleven Taliban Including 3 Commanders Killed in Kandahar province. One was the provincial commander, and one a district commander. This was an Afghan operation. Five policemen also died.
Saddam Refuses To Enter Plea when formally charged with the murder of 399 resident of Dujail village. The judge entered a not-guilty plea for the former dictator, who insisted he was still president of Iraq. We all have out fantasies, the difference between normal people and Saddam is that we keep quiet about ours.
40 Insurgents Killed South Of Baghdad say US forces. A helicopter was shot down and its two crew killed. The insurgents say they downed 4 helicopters. Local Sunnis allege 25 civilians were killed. US acknowledges women and children were wounded but has said nothing about civilian dead.
Its time for the human rights groups to take a stronger public stand against the insurgent habit of fighting behind civilian cover. We at Orbat.com are sick and tired of the knee-jerk whining about the US causing civilian casualties. If the insurgents did not use civilians as shields, many fewer civilians would die.
Sao Paulo Fighting Continues with 82 now dead. The police total is as before, 35 police and guards; aside from some civilians the rest are gangsters who are attacking police for the 4th day.
The situation vis-a-vis prison hostages has improved: 179 have been released by their captors.
Provincial authorities have said they will not back down, but also refuse to ask the center for the Army.
Yuan Breaks 8 To The Dollar Barrier trading yesterday at 7.9982. The yuan is supposed to be no longer linked to the dollar, but in a move that is irritating the Europeans and Japanese, the yuan has gone down against these currencies by the exact same percentage as the dollar.
1330 GMT May 15, 2006
1330 GMT May 14, 2006
1330 GMT May 13, 2006
No Bush Impeachment If Democrats Win House The leader of the Democratic Party in the House has said she has no interest in pursuing an impeachment agenda if her party gains control of the House in November. There will, however, be investigations on the run-up to Gulf II.
To say that Mr. Bush lied is absurd: just about every allied intelligence service in the region was saying Saddam had WMDs. But they had reasons to twist the evidence - that includes Israel, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. At the same time, between us, our readers, and the computer screen, the WMDs were only an issue raised to mobilize the public. WMDs or no, we believe the US had to go in to begin the process of democratizing the Muslim world, and while you can debate if it is America's business - or in its interest - to do that, there is no doubt American policy is succeeding in this regard.
This is not an impeachable issue, nor is wiretapping.
At the same time, before all us supporters of Mr. Bush get dewy eyed with virtue, of all the actions presidents have taken, the least deserving of impeachment was Mr. Clinton's offense. If the right complains about the savage hatred by the left of Mr. Bush, why are forgetting the equally savage hatred of the right for the Clintons?
You can criticize Bubba's lack of discretion, and you can even criticize his taste in women, but that is about all. If rumor is correct, President Kennedy and Marilyn Monroe had a relationship. Has America become a more morally correct society in the last 4 decades? We think not. We cannot prove it, but our instinct is that one reason President Kennedy got away with things is he was a beautiful person and so was Ms. Monroe. Message to Bubba: Taste Matters. To the public - personally your editor could care less. He'd vote for Bubba for President any day. But then he'd also vote for W, so maybe he needs his head examined.
US Oil Demand Slows by 200,000 bbl/day due to high prices. We were unable to accurately understand the data, but it seems that this is a slow down in growth of demand rather than an actual decline. There is no decline in gasoline usage, the major component of US oil usage.
While ethanol is being touted as an alternative fuel - including by us - right now ethanol costs more than gasoline because it is made from corn. There are other processes in the works that should start coming on line that will substantially drop the price. Other ethanol problems are it delivers less than 80% of the mileage per gallon and only about 600 stations in the US sell the fuel. Nonetheless, it is being used as an additive.
Our point on stuff like ethanol is "hang the price. There is a strategic need to reduce gasoline usage. Add the security expenditure needed to protect overseas oil supplies and we are looking at much over $4/gallon".
Meanwhile, the biggest wind farm in the US, 500-MW, will not start construction for 4 years in large part because of environmental impact studies. A ~500-MW project off Cape Cod, Massachusetts is held up because wealthy residents fear, including the green Senator Ted Kennedy it will ruin their view. The residents say the legacy of President John F. Kennedy must be protected. What legacy? He sailed in the waters of Cape Cod. No doubt we'll be seeing congressional bills to protect places where the late - and beloved - president squatted for his morning constitutionals.
The US has 9-GW of wind energy installed, the most in the world of any nation, but a drop in the bucket of energy demand. Texas and California lead with ~2 GW each.
Highly Enriched Uranium Traces At Another Iran Plant Even as the UN Secretary General wastes everyone's time, including his own, for a call to the US to talk directly to Iran, traces of HEU have been found at a plant Iran has not declared as part of its clandestine N-program.
Fighting In Mogadishu for 7th Day Casualties now include 130 dead, but some say this is only the civilian toll: the militias take away the bodies of their fighters. Local residents are fleeing because they expect the fighting to continue. Warlords are battling Islamic militias for control of the port area. Both sides are calling for reinforcements, and some battles are at close quarters.
Colombia Trains Mine Sniffing Rats Their noses are more sensitive, they take half the time to train, they are smarter than dogs, and best of all, they are too light to detonate mines militias plant to protect their cocaine crops. The security forces have been losing many dogs and handlers when the dogs accidentally detonate mines they are seeking. Source: Reuters.com.
0230 GMT May 12, 2006
Another Oil Mystery Resolved Business Week says since President Chavez took over in Venezuela, oil production has fallen 45%, from near 3 million barrels/day to a bit over 1.5 million because the president's populist programs and inefficient management by the government are siphoning away money needed to reinvest in production.
In Iran, since 1979, production has fallen from 7 million bbl/day to 3. So at a time oil demand is soaring, there's yet another shortfall, of 5.5 million bbl/day.
45 Dead In Sri Lanka Clash reports BBC, basing casualty figures on Government reports. A naval vessel was transporting 700 soldiers when it and the accompanying naval gunboats were attacked by 15 rebel gunboats. Government dead are 15-20 and the rest are rebels. The rebels say they lost only 4 men.
Peace monitors - one of whom was with the naval convoy - blame the rebels for the attack. The monitors say the rebels have no rights at sea, as only a government can exercise those rights.
America Keeps On Truckin' We aren't eating crow, since we didn't bet any money, but apparently $3 gallon petrol hasn't fazed America one little bit. It was generally assumed we'd see consumption drops if oil went to $3, but there is no sign this is happening. Indeed, people are saying Americans are not going to change their driving habits even at $4/gallon. The reason for this is that petrol is a relatively small part of the American family's budget.
Our question is: if Americans are willing to pay that much, why is the money going to America's enemies in the form of higher oil prices and not to the government in the form of higher taxes which the government would use to better life for everyone? Okay, okay, before the brickbats start arriving, we mean a normal sort of government would do that.
Letter to the Editor From Mike Thompson Regarding your statement that because the Democrats lead the Republicans in the polls by 16 points control of the House could change and we could see major Republican losses in the Senate: The CNN poll is a generic national poll. What matters is the individual district races in the House and the Senate state wide races. Its hard to beat an incumbent. Plus with all the redistricting that's been done, there aren't too many seats in play. Here in llinois, incumbents of either party usually win 65-35.
Fighting Continues In Mogadishu with 120 reported killed in Round 3 between Islamic fundamentalists and the warlords. For the first time, we hear the charge that the US is funding the warlords. This comes both from the fundamentalists, who say Washington wants revenge for the killing of its soldiers in Mogadishu, and from the country's president who may not have directly named the US but apparently those around him were clear enough on what he wants.
We think the revenge assertion is a bit odd. It was the warlords' militias that killed the US soldiers. Perhaps the fundamentalists are having trouble accepting the US doesn't like them because it is in a global war with fundamentalists.
One source says the fundamentalists are better financed because they control the port and levy taxes on cargo, whereas the warlords depend on US handouts.
0230 GMT May 11, 2006
[1130 GMT] Fighting Continues In Mogadishu with 120 reported killed in Round 3 between Islamic fundamentalists and the warlords. For the first time, we hear the charge that the US is funding the warlords. This comes both from the fundamentalists, who say Washington wants revenge for the killing of its soldiers in Mogadishu, and from the country's president who may not have directly named the US but apparently those around him were clear enough on what he wants.
We think the revenge assertion is a bit odd. It was the warlords' militias that killed the US soldiers. Perhaps the fundamentalists are having trouble accepting the US doesn't like them because it is in a global war with fundamentalists.
Taliban Reasserting Influence says a US general. He says the insurgents have gained ground in some southern provinces because the government institutions are weak, but that the Allies were having good success against them. Southern Afghanistan is the focus this year of Allied and Afghan forces.
Democrats Lead Republicans By 14 Points says CNN, indicating if the 2006 elections were held today there would be a substantial shift of power in the House from Republicans to Democrats. Basically people are fed up of what they see is the Republican mishandling of foreign and domestic policy.
We hold no brief for Democrats, but quite frankly it's easy to see why people are angry. Objectively, foreign policy is so-so, but domestically the budget mess is simply incomprehensible it is so bad. Which is not to say the Democrats have answers either, as American politicians are on a pander-to-the-lowest-common-denominator trip.
There is no indication policies are going to change; if the trend holds up, expect the Republicans to lose the House in the fall and possibly many Senate seats as well.
President Chavez Outspends US In South America says Times London. He may have spent up to $27-billion in aid of one kind or another in South America in the last 7 years, easily outdoing the US's $13-billion. About $1-billion/year goes to Cuba alone in the form of oil subsidies.
This is terribly nice of him and all that, but one wonders what right he has to squander his country's resources when most of his own citizens live in poverty - and there has been no change in the percentages since he came to power.
London Time's sobriquet "the new King of Latin America" may turn out to be accurate.
Pakistan's Offshore Hydrocarbon Resources We have been looking for a very long time for a figure because we keep hearing rumors that these resources are considerable - and located in or off Baluchistan, the province that is in semi-revolt.
Pakistan's naval chief gave figures of 40-billion barrels of oil and 200 Trillion cubic feet of natural gas for Pakistan's Exclusive Economic Zone. Needless to say, if this is correct, Pakistan can be economically transformed over the next 25 years - and Baluchistan's attempts to break away could accelerate and find sympathetic backers.
Nonetheless, he did caution that so far off-shore exploration has not produced the neccessary results.
0230 GMT May 10, 2006
Al-Qaeda's Quest For An N-Device Luke Graysmith has an informative analysis readers might like to peruse. Click here.
US Rejects Iran Letter The US says Iran's letter is simply a long litany of complaints from the past and has no discussion about the N-issue.
Meanwhile, the US has agreed to back a Russian initiative that would offer Iran a package of incentives to stop its N-weapons program or face penalties. Iran says this is a promising approach.
Needless to say, this approach has zero chance of success: Iran cannot afford to give up its N-program regardless of any incentive. The US has agreed only because it has nothing to lose: the Russians have agreed to put a short time frame on Iran's acceptance or rejection, and to back sanctions if the incentives fail. The incentives have to do with widening Iran's access to civilian N-technology. This is fantasy on a large-scale. Iran is one country that doesn't need a civilian N-program under any conditions. It is simply not economical, and as the country has the world's 3rd largest oil reserves, it is in no need to replace oil with some other energy source. The civilian program has simply been a cover for the military program.
When the Russians are taken for a ride in the same way Iran took the Euro 3 for a ride, they are going to much more amenable to not standing in the way of US/Allied action.
British Now Mad at Al-Sadr The top British general in Iraq has said if the militias in Basra do not disarm, the British will have to disarm them. This is all very well, but its also a direct consequence of the British walk-softly/talk-softly approach in their sector. It has probably kept down casualties, but the thugs have had the run of the city so long its hard to see what the British can do given their very limited resources.
Moreover, there are suggestions the gunmen who attacked the British rescue party coming to the aid of their downed helicopter were not under Al-Sadr's control even though they are part of his militia. It is being said many militia subgroups now take their orders from Iran. Why anyone is surprised this is the case is beyond us: Iran has been interfering from Day 1.
Moussaoui Has Second Thoughts He now wants to plead innocent and say he made up everything. The judge told him to forget about it: you cannot change a guilty plea once you've been sentenced. Besides, which jury is going to now believe him when he says he lied? Add all the perjury counts consecutively and he would still spend his life in jail.
Seems our hero, who was shouting "America you have lost" when he was sentenced to life instead of execution, has suddenly gotten much less brave at the prospect of his future condominium in SuperMax.
Letter from John Pearson On PRC Economy I’ve attached a link to a newspaper article claiming the Chinese govt. is holding nearly a trillion dollars in non-performing loans, with another 225 billion future NPLs in the four largest state-owned banks: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,19067992-36375,00.html
0230 GMT May 9, 2006
Iran Again Proves It Does Not Understand the US American critics love explaining how the US does not understand country X, Y, Z. Having spent half a lifetime talking to American diplomats, academicians, intelligence, and military people, personally I find no evidence this is correct. Just because the US takes a position that a critic does not agree with, does not mean the US hasn't understood. It means the US calculus is different, and its not more complicated than that.
Meanwhile, does anyone pay heed to how little other countries understand the US? A prime example is Iran.
The president has sent the US president a letter suggesting talks on narrowing differences. As Mike Thompson, who forwarded the AP story, puts it "Great Lunatic Writes Great Satan". Now since your editor is dyslexic, for a moment he got it reversed, and thought Mr. Thompson meant Mr. Bush was the GL and Iran's president the GS, and certainly in his fiscal policies Mr. Bush is showing every indication he earns the title of GL. Unfortunately for Iran, in foreign policy Mr. Bush seems to have retained his wits.
Unfortunate because there is simply no way the US is going to fall for this inane stupidity of talks. The US never wanted to talk in the first place. It agreed to talks by the Euro 3 only to appease Europe. The talks went nowhere (great surprise). By suggesting talks, Iran may think it will be able to drag out talks till it gets a bomb, or it may think it will appear reasonable in the eyes of the world, and the US will be blamed for being obstructionist.
The US does not care what the rest of the world thinks. In the Bush World View Before Iraq, no country counted. After Iraq, a few countries count: hint hint - Russia and China are not on the list . The world still does not count. The US, we have said time and again, is getting ready to bash Iran. It will not matter even if Iran turns over its entire N-program to the IAEA, the US will STILL not be satisfied because the N-program is only one of many issues. The US plays this one up because it plays well with its own public.
Given Iran's long record of deceit on the N-issue, no one who counts in the US book will be taken in - and even here the US doesn't care, it will act unilaterally if need be.
One Proof Iran Is In La-La Land While Iran is coyly proposing talks, an MI6 leak to Wordnetdaily.com - also thanks to Mike Thompson says: Six Pakistani N-scientists working on Iran's nuclear program are helping Osama turn fissile material he says he has obtained into a bomb.
At this point you must suppress the urge to guffaw, because really MI6 does understand making N-bombs is not as simple a matter as that. The real object of the report has to be adding to the evidence that Iran has to be squashed. In true American style, the report is plausible enough that most experts will take it as true, and they will write articles, and the public will be convinced.
The report is plausible because we know from other reports (and sources) that Pakistan's AQ Khan was trying to strike a deal for two N-bombs with Osama before the US attacked Afghanistan. Osama also was working along the lines of getting someone to make a radiological weapon: a conventional bomb with a radioactive material core - spent fuel rods from an N-reactor will do - that would spread the radioactive material around the target - this is all in the record somewhere. One of the people he approached or approached him was a Pakistani scientist who, according to himself, said no. But then he vanished and is thought to be in Iran.
Before people in Euro capitals or New York or Washington start panicking, even making and delivering a radiological weapon is not particularly easy. But that's not going to stop the usual "sources" and "experts" from saying it is. People are going to get quite worked up to "learn" about these nefarious activities with Iran as the nexus.
The beautiful thing, we repeat, is that the Iranians are crazy enough, and elements of their government/intelligence/military are out of control enough, that they are sure to be working on all these ideas. So the US-UK etc does not have to tell lies: they simply have to say: "we must focus on capabilities, worst-case capabilities; better safe than sorry."
So again, if the Iranians think they can avoid having their N-program crippled, they are guilty of not understanding the US.
0230 GMT May 8, 2006
We regret that for the second time in seven days there is no news to report.
Sudan Denies It Is Ready To Accept UN Troops The government says it has not decided and press reports saying it has accepted were wrong.
Al-Sadr - Once Again The gunmen who attacked British soldiers in Basra arriving at the scene of a helicopter crash belong to Al-Sadr's militia.
We're saying this for the Nth time: if this man is not got rid of, everyone, including the Iraqis, can say good bye to Iraq. He is prepared to destroy everything to gain power.
Baluchistan: 3 Landmine Incidents kill three and injure seven.
Iran Trying To Denominate Oil In Euros In a futile attempt to break the US dollar's hegemony over world trade, Iran announced it will set up an oil market in the country denominated in euros.
The problem is that (1) oil is a small part of global trade, (2) no one is interested in having anything to do with a financial instrument/market based in Iran, and (3) the Europeans have no interest in their currency becoming the reserve currency for the world.
Nonetheless, if the US dollar were displaced, it might be a good thing for the US. If people started dumping dollars for euros, the US dollar would fall, and the US would start running an export surplus rather than the astounding deficits it regularly features. There is a concern that inflation would rise because the cheap goods the US imports from places like China would become more expensive. Conversely, however, US high technology goods would become cheaper, so jobs would start returning to the US.
China Cannot Revalue Yuan We are told that the fractional yuan revaluation of 3% has hurt Chinese factories because they work on very low margins. The Chinese fear that revaluation will cause the loss of millions of factory jobs.
Maybe, maybe not: China's imports will become cheaper, and like Japan, Germany, South Korea etc it can move up the production chain. Economically you cannot have a country running the consistent trade surpluses China does without hurting someone else.
The Japanese yen was deliberately set by the US at 360 to the dollar and the German mark at 4 to the dollar after World War II to give these devastated countries the opportunity to recover. In 1945, the US generated near 50% of the world's GNP. So it could afford to help by encouraging cheap imports. Plus, of course, there was a strategic purpose: both countries became staunch US allies against the USSR. Today the Japanese yen is less than 120 to the dollar, and the German mark came down to 1.7 to the dollar if we recall right. The US cannot afford to run trade deficits to help China because now the US the US share is dropping to 20%. Besides which its supremely stupid to help China in any way because China is aiming to displace the US as world hegemon in the next few decades.
0230 GMT May 7, 2006
Sudan Ready Top Accept UN Troops after signing a peace agreement with the largest of 3 rebel groups. The African Union force of 7000 lightly-armed peacekeepers has been unable to do its job and a UN force has long been mooted, but Sudan was not agreeing till now.
Since two groups have not signed peace agreements, it is difficult to say if the peace deal is going to work.
British Troops Attacked In Basara After a British helicopter that may have been hit by insurgents crashed in a residential area of Basra in Iraq, mobs celebrating the downing attacked British troops who had arrived at the site 5 Iraqis were subsequently killed according to local police: there is no information on who was responsible; British forces say they fired in the air. It is thought possible the deaths were caused by mortar fire aimed at the helicopter site. If so, it shows the criminal indifference of insurgents: mortars are area weapons and with civilians all over the crash site you are going to hit them.
The number of troops on board the helicopter has not been released, but the Iraqis say five men were killed. Times London says British troops exchanged fire with Shia gunmen.
Iraqi Police Recruits Defecting To Local Militias says Times London. One former recruit who joined the Mahadi Army (our bratty friend Al-Sadr's gang) right after training says the money is better, and there is less chance he will get killed. Hundreds of recruits are said to have defected.
We're not entirely sure if this story has any real significance. When thousands of police officers a month are being trained, many will drop out for different reasons. This has been the experience with the Iraq Army, and even with the Afghan Army. Presumably some of the defectors join militias. Is this something new, or is this something that has been going on that the Times correspondent recently discovered?
Canadians Go Wobbly On Afghanistan 54% oppose the Canadian mission to Afghanistan with the Quebec figure being as high as 70%.
All we can say is we are sad. The Canadians are fine soldiers, very much needed for what is a NATO mission. The cause doesn't get any more just than it does in Afghanistan. Much of the Canadian public already finds nothing wrong in letting the US be the country's ultimate defender while roundly abusing the US. Now we are seeing more than half of the public is not ready to help a country that terribly needs help. This does not reflect well on a nation that is small in population but traditionally big of heart when it comes to helping others.
0230 GMT May 6, 2006
Israel Prepares Partition Plans Indications are the new Israeli government will press ahead with a partition of the West Bank and Jerusalem. It hopes the Palestinians will agree; but if they do not, Israel will proceed unilaterally.
Isolated West Bank settlements will be abandoned as they are difficult to protect.
Moussaoui Gets A Window We are astounded to learn from the Washington Post that the Federal Supermax facility where Moussaoui will get to spend the rest of his life has windows in its cells. OK, they are 10 centimeters wide, and look out on the inner courtyard, but a window is a window and we thought the Supermax had none.
The cell appears to be about 7 square meters, with a concrete bed and concrete stool, a shower that shuts off automatically to prevent flooding, and - this also we didn't know - a combination commode-washbasin-water fountain unit of stainless steel. Appropriately disgusting, we note approvingly. There is also a stainless steel mirror. Moussaoui may or may not be allowed a black and white TV - it plays religious and educational programs only.
A prisons officer familiar with the Supermax says Moussaoui has no idea what he's in for. The officer says the idea of the Supermax is that prisoners should rot, and rot he will.
We suppose its no use reminding Moussaoui that if he rubs his warders the wrong way, his punishment, already the severest America has been able to devise, could get a lot worse. But presumably he will soon learn to be respectful and obediant.
Dafur: One Rebel Group Accepts Ceasefire but two don't. And as such its not clear what good the ceasefire agreement will do.
New Twist On Iraq Rescue Of Peace Activists Readers will recall in March three peace activists were rescued by British troops in Baghdad. Since there was no sign of the kidnappers, members of a notorious criminal gang that has extorted million of dollars in exchange for kidnap victims, there was speculation the kidnappers had simply set the hostages free in exchange for ransom, and the dramatic rescue was self-promoting theatre on the part of the British special forces. We had commented we thought this theory silly.
It turns out, according to London Times, that the British force was worried their national held hostage, an elderly gentleman, might not survive a raid. So through an intermediary, the British troops, 32 from B/22 SAS and backed up by 40 from the new SF regiment, let the kidnappers know the game was up, and the kidnappers might like to avail themselves of a chance to vanish. The kidnappers took the hint.
The drama, we maintain, remained real to the end because (a) had the kidnappers not cooperated there would have been a fight, (b) had the kidnappers double crossed the SAS there would have been a fight. The SAS would have had to assume the worst and go in accordingly.
Incidentally, the report at the time that American troops were working with the British are likely wrong. Mandeep Bajwa, our South Asian correspondent, says the Americans have given British SF cover as American troops for the former's operations in Baghdad. So the Brits dress and are equipped as American soldiers.
0230 GMT May 5, 2006
All The News
That's Unfit To Print
(There being no news fit to print)
Zarqawi The Fumble Fingered The American military has released the full version of Zarqawi's latest tape. It was apparently found in a raid south of Baghdad, and is apparently one factor in the Americans' statement that they have him on the run in and around Baghdad, and they expect to get him soon. Given how many trusted men he has lost to death and capture, that's probably a reasonable statement. Obviously the Americans are trying to rattle him; its not like them to boast about being just about to get X, Y, or Z, but still, because these statements come back to haunt people who made them, we are a bit more optimistic he may soon be caught.
We already know from the video our boy Z does not wear a suicide vest as he has let out; he is seen wearing a plain old ammo jacket and so on. That's old news.
The new news is seems our boy Z and his close lieutenants don't know how to fire or handle weapons. The machine gun Zarqawi is shown firing starts off on single round fire, Z is baffled and confused and has to hand it off to someone else to put it on to automatic. Then his people handle it by the barrel and get their hands burnt and so on.
So the American military is laughing itself silly over these 3-Stooges antics, and they have every right to. Zarqawi (if he really exists and is as important as the Americans say he is) is a nasty piece of goods that needs to be sent to his maker ASAP - after he has been drained of every memory since he was born, of course.
At the same time, folks, lets not get carried away here. So neither he nor his surviving henchmen know anything about firearms. That has no impact on their leadership abilities, and the people they command obviously do know enough.
We Weep For Bill Gates The poor darling is feeling so bad he's rich. He wishes he weren't that rich. Nothing good comes out of that much wealth he says.
Billy Boy, you hit the nail on the head. No good at all comes out of that much wealth. Yours truly is waiting for his Fair Share check of $170 should you decide to divest yourself of all that no good - $50 billion divided by 300 million, the US population. Oh, OK, if you want everyone in the world to have their share, the editor's check should be around $8 (eight dollars). But your editor is not proud: kindly send him the 8 bucks via PayPal.
But you know something, Billy? You are so full of hot air it isn't funny. Your statement is yet another pathetic attempt to garner attention for yourself. Face it: no one likes you, not because you're rich, but because you make a lousy product and destroy everyone who tries to come up with better. That's what bad about your wealth.
True Story From Pravda A Russian paratrooper, back from service with the army, was challenged by his friends at a party to break bricks with his head as apparently he claimed he could.
No bricks were to be found, but vodka bottles aplenty were available. He carefully smashed 24 bottles - empty, of course, no real Russian would waste vodka - one after another on his head. After Number 24 he fell down unconscious. His friends prudently left.
He was discovered by his parents the next morning and taken to hospital. Doctors determined he had passed out from being drunk and had a concussion of the brain. "
Pravda says: "What is most remarkable, is that when the man came to his senses and the doctors suggested he stay at hospital, he refused and left the hospital that very evening."
Please excuse us, but what is so remarkable about that? No man in his right mind wants to stay on in the hospital and be made fun of by every patient and staffer for a remarkably stupid act. Since when can an empty vodka bottle be substituted for a brick, is what we'd like to know. If your editor was caught in the position of this young man, he too would give his name as Bill Gates, excuse himself to go to the bathroom, and quietly run away.
0230 GMT May 4, 2006
[1030 GMT] Apparent Split In Iran Military Iran of late has making all sorts of wild statements, and none if wilder - or more pointless - than the statement by the head of the Revolutionary Guards Navy, saying that Israel will be Iran's first target if the US attacks. Now the deputy chief of the regular forces has said the statement was the Guard commander's own personal view and had no validity as far as the military was concerned.
To those who follow Iran closely, the split will come as nothing new: the regular military is much more cautious than the Guards, likely because it is much more professional and realizes what it is up against vis-a-vis the US.
The naval commander's statement on Israel is pointless because it will have exactly the opposite effect he intends. Far from deterring the west, it has the effect of solidifying western opposition to Iran - the US and Europeans may have their differences on Israel versus Palestine, and on Iran, but both are 100% committed to the survival of Israel. The west will now be even more determined that something drastic has to be done to disarm Iran's N-program.
Brazilian Oil Company Disagrees With Bolivia's Evo The Bolivian president says, after nationalizing the oil industry, that foreign investors should still be able to make 20-25% profit after surrendering 82% of revenues to the government. Petrobras, the largest investor in Bolivian oil, disputes this.
We had a bit of snicker at Evo's expense because 20-25% is certainly not enough return for investing in, what from a foreign investor's view, is now an unstable country, and in an industry that is highly cyclical. To begin with investments made when oil is $70/bbl start looking a bit pale when the price drops. Then who knows how the impending conflict between Bolivia's resource poor mountain regions - Evo's base - and the rich eastern plains plays out.
The effect of the nationalization will spread in ripples as foreign investment in all areas starts falling off, even though those who have already invested, including oil companies, are likely to stay put.
Times London says, correctly in our view, that Evo is wildly popular for his nationalist posturings, and while the nationalization portends only bad things for Bolivia, politically Evo will be unaffected. Socialism is a failed religion - a hundred or more 3rd world countries who have tried it can be used as an example. You can use revenue generated by the capitalists for social purposes, much as western Europe does. But you cannot generate revenue as efficiently if the government runs economic production. Evo should ask China and Russia if he doesn't believe this.
EU Suspends Serbia Stabilization Talks and an important ruling coalition party leader resigns over the failure of Belgrade to deliver Ratko Mladic, wanted war criminal - and hero to many Serbians - for trial. A Serbian source says this is the lightest punishment that could have been given. While this may be true, perhaps the Serbian government should worry that any sanction has been imposed for the first time, and unless the general is given up, more sanctions with greater bite may follow.
Moussaoui Given Life Apparently the jurors were influenced by two factors: 3 jurors thought his role was minor; nine thought his unstable childhood should be considered. No juror was influenced by the wish to avoid making him a martyr.
Moussaoui shouted: "America, you lost, I won," which is a confused statement. America applied its judicial standards fairly in an open trial. So we think American won. Not that this will incline anyone opposed to America to change their mind, but it was important for Americans to see this was a fair and open trial. As to what he has won, we are baffled: life in solitary is not what we call winning, particularly if he goes to a supermax where inmates see the light of day only for a brief exercise period each day, and even that can be taken away for the slightest infraction of tough prison rules.
The government, of course, will not be happy because though they won a conviction, they did not win a death sentence, but that's how it goes in a trial, particularly when the allegation is not that he took part in the terrorist action, but that he did not inform the authorities in advance about what he knew concerning the plot.
0230 GMT May 3, 2006
Oh The Geniuses We Think We Are Reader marcopetroni forwards an article by Dariush Mirzai writing in www.asiatimes.com which notes that Iran has not had strategic allies; rather, it has made alliances of convenience as the situation dictates. Mirzai does not say this, but in our opinion part of the reason may lie in the Iran's belief that it is a unique country, not to be compared under any conditions to any other - and particularly not to any in the Arab or Third Worlds.
So Iran is coming up with bright ideas on how to break the isolation that is gathering upon it. We found two of the ideas quite hilarious.
One: offer Third World countries nuclear technology. For Orbat.com, it would be a dream come true if Iran did that, because then preemptive action by the west will be swift and brutal. Even we don't believe the Iranians are that stupid, but then, ever since the new president took power, the government hasn't put one foot forward correctly.
Second: charge the west $100/bbl for oil and sell it at reduced rates to the poorer countries. OK, so your editor is not going to pass moral judgment on this piece of stupidity: he too failed Economics 1. Of course, no one ever asked him to run a country, and that he attended class seven times in the year and fell asleep at the final exam did have something with do with his - er - dismal grade.
Iran needs to know that poor countries are no use as allies - one reason being - Ohmigosh what a revelation - is that they are, well, poor. The poor don't have military or diplomatic influence. Further, the poor depend heavily on certain nasty institutions called the IMF and the world Bank, and on aid from the west.
Next, oil is fungible. Output is controlled by a cartel, which in effect sets a ceiling price. But that price of necessity is the same every customer. So you can sell oil at a subsidy, as Venezuela is doing to buy influence. But Venezuela cannot say: to make up that money we will charge America more. Its not a very complicated thing to think through for anyone except, it seems, the new rulers of Iran.
Property In Iraq Up 1000% In 3 Years says the US head of the Republican Party. We haven't the faintest idea of how to put this stat in context, but it has to mean the people of Iraq are satisfied, making money, and willing to invest the money. That implies a certain stability that is not evident from reading the world press.
Split In Hamas We wish US media had more stuff like this, explains a lot. Apparently Hamas is split between the original leadership, which is in Syria, and the newly elected leaders in Palestine. The latter are for moderation, the former is as hard line as ever.
So there is Syria's name coming up again. And the reason Syria has been straightened out? Because US is bogged down in Iraq. There are consequences to messing up, something that is not appreciated in Washington these days.
Blockade Iran's Oil
The world is sitting on 4 years worth of oil output from Iran. The US should simply blockade Iran's oil, and cut pipelines to other countries. Iran is completely dependent on oil exports, otherwise it is a poor country. It will be hurt badly.
What if the Iranians don't blink in 4 years? Simple. Impose a complete ban on forward and speculative trading in oil - things like this are done in wartime. Prices will fall to $50/bbl - maybe less, maybe they will remain a bit more. Depends on how you assess the fear/speculative premiums on oil. The world runs short of 3-million/bbl day of Iranian oil after 4 years; the price goes up to $70. That's where we are now. You can play with the figures as you like, we're suggesting an idea.
The free market is normally the most efficient allocator of resources. But oil does not exist in a free market to begin with. Without the cartel, prices would be much lower. Also, in emergency and wartime, the free market is NOT the most efficient allocator.
There are other measures also possible. We are told ethanol factories can be constructed in a year. Mandate 10% ethanol blend gas, that cuts US demand, at least, by 1 million barrels leaving 2 million barrels off the market from Iran to be made up. A lot can be done in 4 years to bring new sources on-line, conserve, and replace traditional oil with other sources.
Sure it costs money. Anyone in America thinking about what an American war costs these days? Latest estimates for Iran/Afghanistan are $800+billion by the time its over. One suggestion: use money to get Iraq up to 6 million bbl/day ASAP. Once money is available, security is a matter of detail. We can discuss this in greater detail. For example, an outright cash grant of $1000/year for every Iraqi citizen should buy all the security that's needed. That's $25-billion/year.
0230 GMT May 2, 2006
[1030 GMT] Ramadi Fighting Its not particularly easy to figure out what's happening in Iraqi areas that fall under the US Marine Corps: for operational security reasons, the Marines release little information when operations are underway. Subsequently the press has little to say because as far as it is concerned there's no more story. You have to follow the military press closely to get a good grip on the situation, and unfortunately we can't do that - we focus on the international press.
For the above reasons, we've missed the real story behind the Ramadi clashes last week. Apparently these were major, with heavy and very successful involvement of Iraqi forces, just 2 of whom are reported killed as opposed to 100 insurgents.
Ramadi has remained an insurgent strongpoint despite the clearance of Fallujah: we are not sure why, but believe shortage of US troops has played a significant role. After the arrival of at least one, and possibly two, Iraq Army brigades last year, however, the situation began to slowly change. The important reasons have been a steady improvement in Iraqi capabilities and the atrocities committed by Zarqawi, which turned the people of Anbar Province against him. The locals have been providing information - and also fighting on their own - against Zarqawi and foreigners. The Ramadi insurgents were informed on by locals; we don't know at this stage if they were foreigners or locals.
A not-so-baffling aspect of Anbar Province's situation since last year has been the ignoring, by the press, of the dramatic turnaround in favor of the Iraqi Government and US forces. Good news is no news. Anbar has, of course, traditionally been semi-independent even in Saddam's days. As long as you were not plotting against him, you got to do what you wanted. This is the reason Anbar proved so difficult to subdue - the locals are Sunni, but became pro-Saddam only when the Americans arrived and started rearranging the local balance of power.
It's possible that if the Americans had left Anbar alone - a no go area - a lot of trouble could have been avoided. There is, however, no way in which the US could do that, because pro-Saddam elements would have used it as a sanctuary. Nonetheless, by arriving in Anbar the Americans got into a very major confrontation with the locals who are not used to being policed. Thanks to Zarqawi's fanaticism, the locals decided that maybe the Americans weren't so bad, and then decided supporting the new Iraqi forces was a better idea than letting Zarqawi run around. Now, of course, the Sunnis of Anbar and elsewhere in Iraq are forced to rely on America to protect them from the wrath of the Shias.
Anbar: some province, different story.
Bolivia All But Nationalizes Natural Gas Industry Companies are to get 18% royalty for providing the capital and doing the work; if they don't like it, they have to leave within 6 months. Troops have moved to take control of 53 gas infrastructure installations.
No Deal On Darfur because rebel groups refused to sign an agreement, repeating demands Sudan had already said it would not accept.
There is considerable concern that by labeling Darfur a case of genocide, the US drew world attention to the problem, but made very difficult the possibility rebels would compromise with the Sudan government: the rebels are clearly expecting that right or wrong the world is going to back them.
Sri Lanka Almost Back To Civil War after 4 years of ceasefire, as April's death toll hits 200. We haven't understood why Sri Lanka rebels chose to break the ceasefire - though the LTTE denies it has done so, there have been so many attacks and incidents that the LTTE claim is impossible to believe. The rebel group exercises tight control over its cadres.
Pardon Us, But Someone Is Nuts - And We Don't Think Its Us Jonathon Pollard, the convicted-for-life spy who betrayed the US, his country, and who thinks he shouldn't be punished because he gave secrets to Israel, and treason committed to help Israel is not treason, now has a petition in the Israeli Supreme Court.
The petition is so bizarre, best our readers get the original story in Jerusalem Post, May 1st, 2006. We quote:
[Pollard's controller who is now a politician] is in possession of a secret document which could gain Pollard's release from prison were he to hand it over to the Americans.
0230 GMT May 1, 2006
Secretary Rice Ratchets Pressure On Iran Up One Notch by saying the US has diplomatic options options outside the UN. The US is willing to give the UN a chance to work things out, but US will not wait forever: that is the gist of her message
Iran Makes Another Meaningless Offer Its no sense our telling Iran to get its act together and avoid making meaningless offers on its N-program because its far too late to deflect rising UN/US pressure. Tricks such as that offered a few days ago - permission to hold some snap inspections - have no chance of being accepted anymore, particularly as, incredibly, Iran sought to dictate who does the inspections. It wanted only the IAEA involved and not the UN, because the IAEA chief is soft on Iran and ineffective. Iran should remember he reports to the UN, and when the UN gets involved, you cannot pick and choose who, when, what etc. part of the agency you will deal with.
The reason its futile to say anything to Iran is that Teheran is convinced its diplomacy is so cunning and so sophisticated that the US cannot understand or counter it.
What Teheran cannot understand is the US is determined to bash Iran, and every game Iran plays - including the pointless inspection offer which comes much too late - works into US hands.
Israel Says Hamas Directly Involved In Last Week's Failed Attack reports Jerusalem Post. Three car loads of terrorists attempted to blow a hole in the Gaza Strip fence to provide ingress, but were foiled. This is first time Shin Bet has directly linked Hamas to a terror attack since Hamas took power; but the Israeli intelligence agency says planning, training, coordinating, funding of terrorist activities by Hamas never ceased and is continuing on a regular basis.
Tamil Tigers Clash With Breakaway Group says BBC. A faction led by Colonel Karuna defected from the LTTE some time back and is taking advantage of Sri Lanka government backing in its fight against the LTTE. The ceasefire in effect - severely strained by LTTE attacks over the last several weeks - also froze the LTTE-Karuna Daction conflict. Now that is threatening to come unglued as the two factions clash. Karuna faction says it lost five fighters and killed 7 LTTE men; LTTE says it killed 10 with no loss.
One of the big issue for the defectors was they felt they were doing the bulk of the fighting against the Sri Lanka forces and taking most of the casualties, without their leaders being given appropriate recognition and representation at LTTE HQ.
Traditional Enemies in North West Frontier Provi nce Joining Hands against the Pakistan government, reports AFP. Specifically, the Waziri and Dawar tribes have allied. About 5000 armed tribals are now available and the consequences can be seen in the daily spate of rocketing, road bombs, and attacks on Pakistan Army/paramilitary outposts.
Pakistan has followed an appeasement policy since 2001 instead of coming down fast and hard, and the truth of the consequences must be faced: Pakistani forces have only the most tenuous of holds in the rebellious areas and avoid conflict with locals wherever possible.
We honestly don't want Orbat.com expending any sympathy on the tribes. These groups are lawless, murderous, two-faced, feudal, addicted both to government subsidies and to criminal activity of one sort of the other, medieval in their treatment of women, and their sole objective is to be left alone to continue their disgusting way of life. They need to be brought into the 21st Century, if neccessary by force, because unless Pakistan modernizes, it will keep developing as it is today: a ticking time bomb, a country where terrorists breed like flies.
We also don't want our readers to think the US government is unaware of what is really happening in Pakistan. But the US realizes there are more urgent, immediate threats like Iraq situation and Iran. The US does not want to take on the task of straightening out Pakistan - a job that will make Iran and Iraq look like keeping pres-schoolers under control - at a time it is fully occupied.
Some say that in trying to modernize the entire Islamic world the US has taken on an impossible task. As far as we are concerned, this is a task that has to be done or else there will be no peace for anyone.