0230 GMT July 31, 2006
[Update 1830 GMT] Israel says there will be no ceasefire with Hezbollah until Israel is certain Hezb cannot launch rockets at it. Jerusalem Post says Israel says it has killed 200 Hezb fighters, and that while Hezb has plenty of rockets left, the launchers have been seriously reduced in numbers. Haaretz of Israel clarifies that Israel is referring to the 200 km Zalal Iranian-origin rocket, there is no real check on Hezb's inventories and launcher numbers for short-range rockets. Reuters.com says Israel estimates 2/3rds of long-range launchers have been destroyed.
Jersualem Post also says an IsAF UAV hit a vehicle traveling from Syria to Lebanon. There is no word on what the vehicles was carrying.
Israeli Troops Enter 4th Border Village Hezb says it is engaged in "fierce" fighting in Alta El Shaab against the Israeli advance.
UN Postpones Resolution, Debate The UN has decided - big surprise - it will not intervene until the fighting stops.
Israelis Apologize For Killing Lebanon General's Aide in attack on a Lebanese military vehicle. Israel says it was targeting Hezb fighters and hit the car by accident.
Hezb Claims Attack On Israeli Warship, Israel Denies any of its warships has been hit. The warship was allegedly off Tyre.
Hezb's TV Station Al-Manar Still On The Air
Anti-US Feeling Rises in Lebanon, Hezbollah Stronger says Reuters. Lebanon's normally fractious polity has been united by continued US support to Israel and that the pro-American prime minister has snubbed the US Secretary of State is considered significant. Hezbollah's influence in Lebanese politics is seen as increasing.
Qana Attack We refused to condemn the Israeli attack on Qana for reasons explained in the 1600 GMT update yesterday. Our position has not changed.
We add the following, We are not interested in issuing a lying-mouthed statement condemning both Israel and Hezb as has become the fashion these days. Israel had absolutely no interest in Lebanon until the Palestinians, Iranians, and Syrians decided to make the tortured country into a battleground against Israel. Israel did not start the conflict with Lebanon. You can slam Israel all you want on the Palestine issue - we are hardly second to anyone in this respect. But facts are facts. It is also not correct to say, well, the Palestinians couldn't fight back in their own country so they had to open a new front. The government and people of Lebanon did not invite Arafat to fight the Israelis from Lebanon. Arafat et el took advantage of Lebanon's fractured status as a nation-state to invite themselves. There is no moral equivalency here.
But we absolutely condemn the astonishingly stupid statement made by a senior Israeli officer that Israel had given warning to the village it would be attack and that Israel operates on the assumption the warned areas are free of civilians.
It is this kind of breathtaking arrogance and refusal to take responsibility for its actions that brings Israel into such opprobrium and arouses such hatred even in the First World. Once again a senior Israeli officer in effect confirms that his military is racist and completely heedless of the lives of Arab civilians.
So Israeli intelligence is so bad that it cannot tell when a village has not been evacuated? And where does this man, a disgrace to his uniform and to his country, think people are to go at 24 hour notice when roads, bridges, vehicles are under attack? Does not this monster understand that the building struck was full of refugees who had fled from another place? Does he not understand his military is preventing aid from getting to refugees? Has no one explained to him what it means to be forced to leave home at 24 hours notice and go into the unknown with your women, children, old, and sick? If he were at the receiving end, and supposing he did not have the money to pay the few taxis and buses willing to run the risk, would he be prepared to load everyone and his household items of value into an animal-drawn cart and just head off? Does he understand that since Israeli aircraft attack civilian vehicles even people with the means to use vehicles to escape may think twice about taking a particular road - assuming it is still traversable?
Monster is not too strong a word for this man. His casual, thoughtless, and we-could-care less statement will undo much of the positive benefit of Israel's sincere apology and decision to suspend the air campaign for 48 hours both to allow aid.
When the US was preparing to attack Fallujah, it gave a month's notice to the civilians and at least did everything it could to facilitate passage out of the city. We condemned the US at that time because once they were out they were on their own, and it was clearly the US's moral responsibility to at least accommodate and feed those who had no place to go. But can readers imagine if an American general had made the statement: "we gave Fallujans 24 hours notice to leave and we assumed the city was empty" what world reaction would be? The US would likely have faced charges of war crimes.
Israel is a western country and it needs to hold itself to western standards. if it refuses to do that, it is saying in effect: "Might is right", and of course it has been saying that since its refoundation as a state after 1900 years.
But if this is the attitude of Israelis, they may do well to recall the old adage "Live by the sword, die by the sword". With friends like these, America needs no enemies.
Qana 1996 This oh-so-very-brave officer would also do well to remember what happened in 1996 at Qana during Israel's "Grapes Of Wrath" offensive against Hezbollah. Israeli artillery fired air bursts over a UN compound full of refugees and killed over 100. Israel said it was a mistake, a UN inquiry said it was a deliberate action. Israel was forced to abort its offensive.
We are not prepared to say Qana 2 will result in the same outcome - we would have to wait and see. In the meantime, the Americans will be forced to defend what much of the world - including the developed world - is going to consider an atrocity.
We want readers to understand that as long as Israel does what it does without involving the US, we have no particular interest in the matter. But it does not help the Americans if the Israelis behave like a rabid Rottweiller. The US is trying to help Israel get out of the hole it has dug for itself, and it is simply too much that now the US - and Americans - are going to hammered because of this one liquid-brained Israeli officer.
Upto 135 Rockets Land On Israel Figures given by different sources are different. Now, we happen to know why the Israelis have not been able to stop this non-stop assault. We're waiting to see what excuse the IDF gives its people.
Qana Attack [1600 GMT]
The Israeli Air Force mistakenly hit a building full of refugees in Qana while targeting Hezbollah fighters who were launching or had launched rockets at Israel. 57+ people killed, including 35 children. World condemnation is immediate. The Lebanese PM refuses a return visit by the US Secretary of State; she puts a brave face on it by saying she cancelled the visit. Israel apologizes at highest levels.
Orbat.com comment We are not going to condemn the Israeli attack for the following reasons.
Fact: Hezbollah is fighting from within the civil population. We are not going to condemn Hezb either, because that is what guerillas do.
Fact: Israel is not being anywhere near as careful as it should with the lives of the Lebanese. But disproportionate response is what the Israelis do, just as hiding among civilians is what Hezb does. We can't refuse to condemn Hezb and then condemn the Israelis.
Fact: The Israelis are at least making some effort to avoid civilian casualties; Hezb is not. Israel has at least apologized and will have an inquiry; there is no Hezb apology for the civilian deaths it has caused. To a guerilla, there is no difference between the civilians and the military on his end, or on the enemy's end. Civilians are to be deliberately targeted to create fear and erode faith in the government's forces. Personally, we don't like guerillas. That is neither here nor there.
1000-meters: This Is What It Has Come To
Israeli officials have told Washington Post that they aim to establish a 1000-meter buffer zone in South Lebanon.
We are absolutely disgusted with the government of Israel. It has expended hundreds of millions of dollars and the lives of many of its own people for a 1000-meter buffer zone - okay, so that is its decision. But it has destroyed a good part of Lebanon's infrastructure which had been rebuilt, and displaced 600,000 civilians, the great majority of whom want nothing to do with Hezbollah and are truly innocent.
The ends do really justify the means in war. We supported the Israeli attack on Lebanon because from the US viewpoint, Hezb needs to be eliminated. The Israelis have achieved absolutely nothing, and have in fact greatly strengthened Hezb's hold on Lebanon.
While it is true the Israelis completely misunderstood what they were up against, it is becoming increasing clear to us they had no intention of eliminating Hezb. Yes, the cost would have been very, very high. But you can see from the failure even to mobilize before they started the war, and the baby-step mobilization they are undertaking now, they were not serious. They themselves are saying they have at most 10 days to continue the war. Even if three Israeli divisions were forming up on the frontier - and they are not - what will be achieved in 10 days? Nothing.
Israel has achieved two things which oddly enough add up to a great victory. The Israeli PM has achieved his internal objectives of looking tough while actually being a cream-puff. And Israel has neatly made its Hezb problem the problem of the United States. Israel has gone potty on the heads of Hezb, and now we see Uncle Sam rushing to clean up - Sam has already funked the job once, in 1982-84, if he sticks to the task this time, we're talking about 20+ years of thankless work.
Shame on Israel for taking continued advantage of the one true friend it has. And shame on the United States for - as usual - jumping in with all four paws, without thinking, into the mess its little protégé has created for America.
In other words, business as usual in the Israel-US relationship. Readers, don't stay tuned: you'd be wasting your time. America will resolutely fail to learn its lesson and Israel will again take advantage of the US.
We'd said we were tired of Israel-Lebanon. Yesterday, however, a whole bunch of normally sane people started saying a whole bunch of outstandingly stupid things about a diplomatic solution and provoked us into yet another pointless analysis of the situation.
BBC Says Israel Ready For Terms including a ceasefire, a beefed up UN force, and no precondition that Hezbollah disarm before the ceasefire. If this report is true and not an Israeli dissimulation effort to try and appear reasonable whereas it actually intends to continue the war, the implication is Israel is prepared to end the war without preconditions. We have already said the Israeli Prime Minister began this war with domestic compulsions foremost and he has achieved his objectives at home.
Haaretz Of Israel Says Israel Assumes It Has 7-10 Days More Whatever.
Hezbollah Says It Is Ready For Ceasefire Well, of course it is because Hezb did not expect a full-scale war. Nonetheless, though it miscalculated, it too has achieved its objectives: it emerges with a greatly enhanced stature and is smack in the middle of any diplomatic efforts instead of being marginalized as it feared earlier.
Hezb says it is willing to discuss disarmament but will not disarm completely. This is a tactical statement of no military value. Hezb will not disarm under any conditions: its power comes from its guns.
Israelis Withdraw From Bint Jbail, Say They Are Preparing New Offensive Elsewhere. The Israelis have declared victory at Bint Jbail and withdrawn. They reserve the right to return. The reality is they have not been able to bring Bint Jbail under their control and a withdrawal, whether tactical or strategic, makes good sense. If it is tactical, they will rethink what they are doing and try again. If strategic, they are acknowledging that they are not in a position to clear south Lebanon.
Israeli Officer Says Hezbollah Not Ready To Surrender but has been hit on a number of levels including its standing in Beirut and serious casualties.
We honestly wish we had a clue what the officer is talking about. Hezb is not ready to surrender: that is correct with the caveat that as far as Hezb is concerned there is no question of a surrender under any conditions and that as far as it is concerned, it has just begun to fight. But how has its standing in Beirut been hit?
90 Rockets Land On Israel As usual, casualties are negligible. One report says the rockets are being fired from the coastal town of Tyre and Israel has no plans to take Tyre.
Okay, in that case the whole Israeli operation is futile. As far as we are concerned, then its time to go home and stop wasting everyone's time including America's.
Australia Withdraws From UNTSO It has 12 observers with this mission which predates UNIFIL. Australia is unlikely to return.
This whole fantasy of a beefed up UNIFIL is stupid. Who is going to contribute to it? The Israelis are going to whine, moan, complain, and provoke the new force at every opportunity. Has anyone in Tel Aviv, Washington, Beirut etc etc bothered to do any thinking at all on the issue? To us it shows everyone is completely out of ideas, so lets send in the UN. Rubbish. Anyone talking about a beefed up force should be demoted six grades and sent to clean latrines in their respective organizations. The taxpayers will at least get some worth for the money they spend on these idiotic bureaucrats and diplomats.
The Americans in particular should be thoroughly ashamed of themselves. They miss no opportunity to trash the UN, now all of a sudden its send in the UN? Get off the drugs, Washington and get a life. Of course Mr. Annan, who is a very decent man otherwise, will right now be rushing around to obey His Master's Voice and doing his best to put together a pretend force for a pretend mission to keep Big Bwana Bush happy.
We have repeatedly argued for a much stronger Indian military commitment to UN peacekeeping and peacemaking operations. If, however, the Indians have any sense, they need to rotate their battalion back home on schedule - without replacement. As the editor's middle schoolers say: "This whole thing is so gay." Gay as in lame, not as in sexual orientation.
If Readers Want To Examine The Depths Of The Fantasy we suggest they read this report in http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/744083.html
Please note the deal involves the return of the kidnapped Israeli troops. Has anyone got Hezb's agreement to that? An international stabilization force of 10-20,000 to help the Lebanese Army disarm Hezb? From which countries? Okay, so y'all ready to fight a civil war in Lebanon on behalf of the non-Shia Lebanese? Go for it, people. Y'all might think Orbat.com weird, but we think you just don't have the guts. We'd love for you to prove us wrong. French, Italian, German troops for South Lebanon and to take part in the inevitable civil war when you try and take Hezb down? Oh please. Why not throw in the San Marino army and then you'll have a really credible force.
Letter From Jose Gonzalez "Fred is friend of mine and he is Israeli-American. He told me that his relative, IDF (Israeli Defense Force) reserve officer, claimed IDF has [begun] study[ing] Second Battle of Fallujah on Nov. 2004 about house-to-house search, put soldiers on roof of the houses and etc. after IDF failed to secure 3 villages include Bint Jbail past week.
Analysis From Paul Danish Editor's Note: Mr. Danish's letter is dated July 28th but reached us only yesterday.
Analysis From July 29, 2006
Condi Rice's Mission Impossible [Given on background, summary.] Why has the President sent Condi on a mission impossible, and more to the point, why has she accepted it? The President and his advisors are completely without ideas on how to resolve an issue which in any case cannot be resolved by the US. Out of loyalty to the President, Condi has taken on the job. She is getting absolutely nowhere and can get absolutely nowhere. She does not have the stature to change minds and positions in the Middle East. It is doubtful that any American envoy, no matter what her/his stature, can do the job because Hezbollah can be tamed only by Iran and Syria. Since the US will not attack either country, the mission can be accomplished only by compromising with both country on a wide range of issues. The US cannot afford to compromise with them just because of Hezbollah, which is a relatively minor problem for the US and with whom the US has had a defacto truce. Condi's mission is a waste of time, and the US is only deluding itself if it believes any negotiated settlement is possible now that the war has been on for two weeks and likely to continue for some more.
Editor's Comment: We aren't particularly interested in the diplomacy angle simply because ant 60 IQ person can see there is no diplomatic solution possible. But: some of our readers are interested, and the above is the view of an insider.
The Israeli Army If you are an Israeli Army partisan, please don't read this. It comes from a senior military person with 40+ years of experience of Middle Eastern armies who is very pro-Israeli. This person's assessment is, we believe, completely on the mark, but if you are a person who believes in the Israeli Army for whatever reason, you don't need to read this. Given on background, summary.
The Israeli Army is a true citizen army, with all of the attendant virtues and flaws. The virtues include the involvement of every citizen in the defense of the state. When his country's survival is at stake, the Israeli soldier is second to none in his bravery and his willingness to die. But as is the case with any citizen army, when the issues are not stark black and white, the Israeli soldier does not do as well as soldiers from professional armies who fight because they believe in the warrior ethic.
The Israeli Army's reputation is a false one, built on victories over second-rate draftee armies belonging to countries without democracy or social equity led by third-rate generals answering to fourth-rate leaders.
It's level of training is seriously deficient in terms of the requirements for modern warfare. This cannot be otherwise when you have a citizen army. It is simply not possible to draft soldiers for 3 years, send them back to civilian life, recall them periodically for training, and mobilize them in emergency. There is just no way the Israeli army can be as efficient as, say, the US or British armies.
The training of the short-service officers and senior non-coms is seriously deficient.
The Israeli Army is mechanized, because the armies of its conventional enemies, past and present, are mechanized. The Israelis boast about their infantry; the truth is their infantry is the weakest part of the army and this was was evident in the first invasion of Lebanon, is glaringly evident in the Gaza operations, and is becoming unfortunately apparent in Lebanon. The Israeli Army is simply not equipped or trained for urban and CI operations.
The Israelis are relying so completely on armor as to be creating great difficulty for themselves. The fighting they are now engaged in requires skilled infantry to attack and fight on foot in extremely unfavorable conditions, where the defender has every advantage and the attacker none. It requires an absolute indifference to casualties, which obviously cannot be the case for a tiny country with a small army. It requires an endurance which an army conditioned to expect strategic victories in very short periods of time cannot be expected to display.
The Israeli military leadership, despite its public bravado, knows in detail the weaknesses of its army. Before now, however, those who focused on the weaknesses were not taken seriously because by and large, every Israeli believes no Arab can stand up to him.
The Israeli Army has now learned its mistake. You ask if it is not an absolute disgrace that two crack brigades and any number of special forces have still not cleared 3 villages/small towns defended by less than 200 enemy - the number may have changed if reinforcements have arrived, I have no information on this. But that is because you also attribute to the Israeli Army capabilities it has never had and you also subscribe to the myth of the cowardly, incompetent Arab. Hezbollah is Iranian trained: always keep that in mind. It is quite different from other Arab/Muslim forces in a variety of ways. Israel is facing a determined enemy fighting on his own ground. Given its capabilities which are not suited for this type of warfare, I believe the Israeli Army has done as well as may be expected.
You ask as a last point about the Israeli habit of firing on UN positions. What you have said in your blog and in our conversation is true. But there are 3 factors about which you are not sufficiently aware, and all three arise from your natural tendency to believe Israeli propaganda about their capabilities - I do recognize you have been saying their capabilities are overstated.
First, Israeli Army communications are not as good you think they are. The US Army has absolutely the best battlefield communications networks the world has ever seen, and even there there are problems at crucial times. Some of the UN-related incidents can be traced back to communications problems between HQ and front-line units; the problems become worse when a third party such as the UN is trying to communicate under combat conditions.
Second, as I have said earlier, the Israeli Army is a mechanized force intended for fast-moving operations in open terrain. Their natural tendency is to shoot first and ask questions later. I am not excusing the Israeli action, only noting realities. Since you are familiar with the US Army, I don't have to tell you about the US Army, which shoots first and never asks questions, and you should keep that in mind before coming down so hard on the Israelis.
The Israeli Army has poor fire discipline: this is not a criticism of the soldiers, they are not trained any other way. The Israelis have always given themselves a free hand when it comes to civilians, you are seeing that in Lebanon. So restraint is not something your Israeli tank troop commander or battery commander or infantry leader has been trained for.
Last, while Israeli border troops permanently assigned to a border may be quite familiar with the location of UN positions, units that come in for an operation may not have the same knowledge. I agree there is no excuse. At the same time, as you know quite well, the gap between theory and practice is never wider than is the case in combat. But when a combat unit arrives and prepares for an operation, about the last thing on the minds of the commanders is the precise location of UN posts and how they are to be avoided at all costs.
May I parenthetically remind you forward troops in contact with the enemy are always on edge. They see enemy where the enemy is not, they are often not able to precisely identify from where you are being fired on. If you have a predisposition to believe the enemy is using UN posts as safe spots from which to fire on you, you are all the quicker to call for artillery fire and air strikes - and often you can be tragically, completely wrong. Surely you have seen enough of that in the inadvertent US attacks on civilians in Iraq and Afghanistan. Also don't forget artillery by its nature is imprecise. The FOO can call for fire 500 meters to the left of a UN post and 1000 meters to its rear, and you can be sure that some percentage of shells in a heavy shoot is going to land exactly where you don't want them to land.
Please be careful to explain to your readers I have no knowledge of the recent incident. I speak generally, and also with long experience of the Israeli Army. Many attacks on UN positions are deliberate. Many are really accidents.
0230 GMT July 29, 2006
The subject of Israel and Lebanon is becoming supremely boring. Plus we are convinced nothing is going to happen: Israel will declare victory and go home at some point soon and things will go back to what passes for normal. Your editor feels guilty about going off the subject, so today he spent making phone calls and getting none of his own work done, not even for half an hour. Here is what he learned of significance.
Condi Rice's Mission Impossible [Given on background, summary.] Why has the President sent Condi on a mission impossible, and more to the point, why has she accepted it? The President and his advisors are completely without ideas on how to resolve an issue which in any case cannot be resolved by the US. Out of loyalty to the President, Condi has taken on the job. She is getting absolutely nowhere and can get absolutely nowhere. She does not have the stature to change minds and positions in the Middle East. It is doubtful that any American envoy, no matter what her/his stature, can do the job because Hezbollah can be tamed only by Iran and Syria. Since the US will not attack either country, the mission can be accomplished only by compromising with both country on a wide range of issues. The US cannot afford to compromise with them just because of Hezbollah, which is a relatively minor problem for the US and with whom the US has had a defacto truce. Condi's mission is a waste of time, and the US is only deluding itself if it believes any negotiated settlement is possible now that the war has been on for two weeks and likely to continue for some more.
We aren't particularly interested in the diplomacy angle simply because ant 60 IQ person can see there is no diplomatic solution possible. But: some of our readers are interested, and the above is the view of an insider.
The Israeli Army If you are an Israeli Army partisan, please don't read this. It comes from a senior military person with 40+ years of experience of Middle Eastern armies who is very pro-Israeli. This person's assessment is, we believe, completely on the mark, but if you are a person who believes in the Israeli Army for whatever reason, you don't need to read this. Given on background, summary.
The Israeli Army is a true citizen army, with all of the attendant virtues and flaws. The virtues include the involvement of every citizen in the defense of the state. When his country's survival is at stake, the Israeli soldier is second to none in his bravery and his willingness to die. But as is the case with any citizen army, when the issues are not stark black and white, the Israeli soldier does not do as well as soldiers from professional armies who fight because they believe in the warrior ethic.
The Israeli Army's reputation is a false one, built on victories over second-rate draftee armies belonging to countries without democracy or social equity led by third-rate generals answering to fourth-rate leaders.
It's level of training is seriously deficient in terms of the requirements for modern warfare. This cannot be otherwise when you have a citizen army. It is simply not possible to draft soldiers for 3 years, send them back to civilian life, recall them periodically for training, and mobilize them in emergency. There is just no way the Israeli army can be as efficient as, say, the US or British armies.
The training of the short-service officers and senior non-coms is seriously deficient.
The Israeli Army is mechanized, because the armies of its conventional enemies, past and present, are mechanized. The Israelis boast about their infantry; the truth is their infantry is the weakest part of the army and this was was evident in the first invasion of Lebanon, is glaringly evident in the Gaza operations, and is becoming unfortunately apparent in Lebanon. The Israeli Army is simply not equipped or trained for urban and CI operations.
The Israelis are relying so completely on armor as to be creating great difficulty for themselves. The fighting they are now engaged in requires skilled infantry to attack and fight on foot in extremely unfavorable conditions, where the defender has every advantage and the attacker none. It requires an absolute indifference to casualties, which obviously cannot be the case for a tiny country with a small army. It requires an endurance which an army conditioned to expect strategic victories in very short periods of time cannot be expected to display.
The Israeli military leadership, despite its public bravado, knows in detail the weaknesses of its army. Before now, however, those who focused on the weaknesses were not taken seriously because by and large, every Israeli believes no Arab can stand up to him.
The Israeli Army has now learned its mistake. You ask if it is not an absolute disgrace that two crack brigades and any number of special forces have still not cleared 3 villages/small towns defended by less than 200 enemy - the number may have changed if reinforcements have arrived, I have no information on this. But that is because you also attribute to the Israeli Army capabilities it has never had and you also subscribe to the myth of the cowardly, incompetent Arab. Hezbollah is Iranian trained: always keep that in mind. It is quite different from other Arab/Muslim forces in a variety of ways. Israel is facing a determined enemy fighting on his own ground. Given its capabilities which are not suited for this type of warfare, I believe the Israeli Army has done as well as may be expected.
You ask as a last point about the Israeli habit of firing on UN positions. What you have said in your blog and in our conversation is true. But there are 3 factors about which you are not sufficiently aware, and all three arise from your natural tendency to believe Israeli propaganda about their capabilities - I do recognize you have been saying their capabilities are overstated.
First, Israeli Army communications are not as good you think they are. The US Army has absolutely the best battlefield communications networks the world has ever seen, and even there there are problems at crucial times. Some of the UN-related incidents can be traced back to communications problems between HQ and front-line units; the problems become worse when a third party such as the UN is trying to communicate under combat conditions.
Second, as I have said earlier, the Israeli Army is a mechanized force intended for fast-moving operations in open terrain. Their natural tendency is to shoot first and ask questions later. I am not excusing the Israeli action, only noting realities. Since you are familiar with the US Army, I don't have to tell you about the US Army, which shoots first and never asks questions, and you should keep that in mind before coming down so hard on the Israelis.
The Israeli Army has poor fire discipline: this is not a criticism of the soldiers, they are not trained any other way. The Israelis have always given themselves a free hand when it comes to civilians, you are seeing that in Lebanon. So restraint is not something your Israeli tank troop commander or battery commander or infantry leader has been trained for.
Last, while Israeli border troops permanently assigned to a border may be quite familiar with the location of UN positions, units that come in for an operation may not have the same knowledge. I agree there is no excuse. At the same time, as you know quite well, the gap between theory and practice is never wider than is the case in combat. But when a combat unit arrives and prepares for an operation, about the last thing on the minds of the commanders is the precise location of UN posts and how they are to be avoided at all costs.
May I parenthetically remind you forward troops in contact with the enemy are always on edge. They see enemy where the enemy is not, they are often not able to precisely identify from where you are being fired on. If you have a predisposition to believe the enemy is using UN posts as safe spots from which to fire on you, you are all the quicker to call for artillery fire and air strikes - and often you can be tragically, completely wrong. Surely you have seen enough of that in the inadvertent US attacks on civilians in Iraq and Afghanistan. Also don't forget artillery by its nature is imprecise. The FOO can call for fire 500 meters to the left of a UN post and 1000 meters to its rear, and you can be sure that some percentage of shells in a heavy shoot is going to land exactly where you don't want them to land.
Please be careful to explain to your readers I have no knowledge of the recent incident. I speak generally, and also with long experience of the Israeli Army. Many attacks on UN positions are deliberate. Many are really accidents.
0230 GMT July 28, 2006
Israel-Lebanon 2030 GMT
Hezbollah Fires 105 Rockets By Friday Afternoon according to Jerusalem Post. No deaths reported so far.
Hezbollah Using Longer Range Rockets These have 75-km range and appear to have a 100-kg warhead.
Bint Jabail Israel reports 15 Hezbollah fighters killed. This suggests the battle is taking a lot longer than we, at least, thought it would.
2nd Senior Hezbollah Commander Killed says Israel, while in a car transporting rockets. Several other Hezb men killed with him. We don't doubt the Israelis have indeed killed these men, but we'd like to ask what kind of rockets were they transporting. To wit, a new twist to an old joke, how many Hezb fighters and rockets can you fit into a Volkswagen bug.
People Need To Get Their Facts Straight
Including Us: Shaba Farms Honestly, we thought this part of Lebanon was still under Israeli occupation - Hezb, for one, has used Israeli occupation of the Farms as an excuse to continue the conflict.
Well, turns out we were right: Shaba Farms is still occupied by Israel. And more importantly, turns out we were wrong: the UN has certified Israel has withdrawn from all Lebanon. But we are nonetheless wrong and we suspect many others are too: UN says Shaba farms is not part of Lebanon, but part of Syria or Jordan depending on which map is being used.
The truth of the matter is Hezbollah has never fought for anyone except for Iran. The Lebanese people, even the Shia of Lebanon, are irrelevant to Hezbollah which is simply a tool of Iranian imperialism.
And before anyone complains: we realize the US is the biggest imperialist in the history of humanity. Which is just fine with us, if you don't mind.
And Including Debka We deliberately have avoided reading Debka.com during this war because we have come to learn, at our cost, that Debka is often plain wrong. But now we are convinced that Debka needs to come clean with the public about its mysterious sources which often seem no better informed than the news services.
We have mentioned that Israeli attacks on UN positions are usually justified by saying the UN helps combatants hostile to Israel. Here is Debka on the latest UN post incident: DEBKAfile adds: The holier-than-thou tone of outrage taken by Annan is surprising when it generally known that many UN missions are exploited as the cover for foreign agents, often hostile, to carry out spying operations in war zones. The inadvertent Israeli air strike revealed the fact that the UN force in Lebanon includes Chinese observers.
Stunning discovery, what? Those terrible Commie pinkos are hiding behind the UN flag. Impeach the UN. Issue arrest warrants for Mr. Annan. Horrible, terrible, and so on. Maybe if Israel has such a problem with PRC it could make a start by ceasing illegal sales of US technology items to PRC.
More to the point: Please visit http://www.un.org/Depts/dpko/missions/unifil/facts.html . The shocking secret that China is a contributor to UNIFIL is inadvertently revealed to the whole world by the shockingly incompetent UN staff which cannot even hide what Debka says it is hiding.
And goodness, Israeli intel must be soooooo incompetent that they didn't know about the PRC military personnel in Lebanon.
And by the way, if Israel has such a problem with the UN, maybe it could start by - gasp, this thought is so frightening we can hardly say it - by accepting UN observers on its side of the borders for once. Then we could see Israeli and UN flags flying side by side and Hezb could complain about the UN being in cahoots with Israel.
Seriously, the Israelis have, from their viewpoint, a very sound reason for never having allowed the UN on their side. Their constant violations of ceasefire agreements would now be documented from their side of the border and not so easily dismissed as is now done by Israel.
Please understand we are not making any moral point here. Israel must see to its own interest, and it has never been in Israel's interest to allow anyone to see what it is up to. This time around, to our limited knowledge, Israel has not accused Indian UN troops of siding with hostiles against Israel. But it has done so repeatedly in the past, and frankly, we have gotten pretty annoyed by its absolutely false allegations.
We completely agree the UN has its limitations: it is an American handmaiden and where American interests are involved, it is absolutely not impartial. You weren't expecting that, were you, admit it now. But while our job at Orbat.com is mostly to explain - and dare we say it - defend America in Global War on Terror issues, we do sometimes like to think we sometimes explain the world to America. A great many people in the ROTW - that's Rest of the World - see the UN as ineffective and used by America to provide "legitimacy" to America's wrong actions.
Back To The Attack On The UN Post There have been suggestions that the Israelis attacked the UN post because Hezb was using the position to fire on the Israelis.
Both sides fire from the vicinity of UN posts: the UN report for just yesterday notes Hezb fired from the vicinity of 4 UN posts - and the Israelis fired from the vicinity of 3. On the 24th there were 6 incidents of Israelis firing from the vicinity of UN positions. Also on that day an Israeli tank round wounded 4 Ghana soldiers. Hezb fired on a UN convoy consisting of 2 APCs but fortunately no one was wounded; the convoy, however, had to turn back. On the 25th, when the UN observers were killed, a Hezbollah mortar round landed inside Ghana battalion positions. Fortunately, it was a dud, or there might have been casualties. Etc etc - the above is not intended as a comprehensive list.
According to the UN, the nearest Hezb position to the attacked post was 5-kilometers away. The Israelis themselves have not made the claim that Hezb was using that particular position that day.
Further, the Israelis had assured the UN at the highest level that UN posts would not be attacked. This particular was was not just attacked repeatedly, even rescue attempts were fired on. The UN force commander was in touch with the IDF throughout the day and into the night. The IDF was repeatedly told what its men were doing. There was no action taken to stop the shelling which was finally topped off by the air attack.
Please understand that the UN observers are unarmed. They cannot stop either side from wrong actions. People, particularly some seriously misinformed Israelis, think that UNIFIL's mission was to disarm Hezb and that because UNIFIL did no such thing, it is at best useless and at worst culpable in cooperating with Hezb.
UNIFIL's Misson We hate to say this, folks, but UNIFIL was never given such a mission. Its primary mission was to verify the withdrawal of Israeli forces from South Lebanon, which it did. It was also supposed to help the government of Lebanon restore its authority in the area, and to restore international peace and security. Well, the Government of Lebanon's idea of restoring authority was to leave Hezb alone and there is nothing UNIFIL can do about it. As for restoring international peace and security, this is one of those throwaway phrases that get included by committees. Said restoration could have been done only with consent of all parties. Hezb did not give its consent, Lebanon did not assert its authority, and most recently, after the kidnapping of Israel's soldiers, the Israelis have also withdrawn whatever consent they gave to the third objective.
Opinion: Israel Right Or Wrong?
Folks, we put to you a revolutionary idea. Israel is not America. It is NOT our side, right or wrong. There are a great many reasons why America should support Israel. But Israel predicates its actions on what it feels it needs to do, and what it feels it can get away. When Israel is wrong, it is the duty of all of us to say it is wrong and it is our duty to make clear to Israel that we will call it out when it is wrong.
It is wrong on the issue of the attack on the UN post. Moreover, to its credit, it has acknowledged so, to no one's greater surprise than ours. Israel simply does not admit any wrongdoing when it comes to attacks on UN positions.
Be that as it may, it is NOT our job as bloggers from the American side to be more loyal to Israel than the Israelis are to themselves. Americans have to understand they will be paying for Israel's failures on Lebanon to a much greater extent than the Israelis. They need to ask if they are getting their money's worth from Israel.
And right now the answer is no. This is a change from our position when the war started. Then we believed Israel really was going to go after Hezb. Naive us. If Israel is going to play silly buggers on the Lebanon border, the price the US is paying is not worth the return.
The News
The Matter Of Hezb Rockets Sources seem to give a different total for any given day and we are now of the view it doesn't really matter whether its 75, 100, 125, or 150. The real issue is they are still being fired. They are causing little damage. Meanwhile, Israel Alerts 3 reserve divisions but says it will not expand the ground war.
Eritrea Arming Islamic Courts Eritrea is, of course, the source of the IC's weaponry. Since IC won control, of Mogadishu and opened the airport, two flights from Eritrea have brought arms, says the media. The flight that arrived most recently is an Il-76 with a nominal payload of 40-tons.
What, We Send Arms? Asks Eritrea. Don't be silly. Those are small sewing machines. Readers will think this is us making up stuff. Be fair, folks. even we aren't clever enough to make up that one.
0230 GMT July 27, 2006
Editor's Message. Someone must have done something about listening to the editor's pathetic moaning and whining. His school assignment has been changed to a school 20 minutes away and he goes against traffic both ways. So we will continue the daily update, but it will be shorter on some days.
Say Goodbye To The US Troop Drawdown In Iraq 70,000 Iraqi and US troops have not been able to stop the Sunnis and Shias from slaughtering each other on Baghdad. So the US government has had another of its bright ideas: lets send more US troops to Baghdad where they can get shot at by both sides. The US troop level is about 127,000 at this time, and it was to go below 100,000 by the end of the years. This is not going to happen with the new deployment.
Israeli Orbat We haven't been paying much attention to this. The chain of command runs from Israeli Northern Command to 91st Infantry Division and then to the Golani and Paratrooper Brigades. Israel has a number of SF units organized in companies and battalions, and some are in southern Lebanon.
Amal Militia Also Fighting Israelis This is a Shia militia that has fought Israel in the first invasion of Lebanon. It says its men have been present at all major battles.
Meanwhile, 60 Iranian volunteers have left for Lebanon via Turkey to join the fight against the Israelis. They include a 72-year old grandfather who believes he was called by his faith to fight. All we can say is we admire the man. Iranians can enter Turkey for 90 days without visas; its not clear how the volunteers plan to get to Lebanon.
Hezbollah's TV Station Still On The Air Truly, we are confused as to why Israel has not been able to shut down the station after several attacks. We don't know what is happening.
Israel-Lebanon
Heavy Israeli Losses at Bin Jebail Israeli Army says at 8 of its men soldiers. including 3 officers. have been killed and 22 wounded in point blank fighting as Israel seeks to secure the town, which it terms a Hezbollah "capital". Odd use of terminology, but that's besides the point. Earlier Israeli soldiers were complaining Hezb wasn't standing and fighting. Well, to begin with its idiotic for the weaker side to stand and fight. And now that the Israelis are on Hezb's turf, the latter is standing and fighting - under conditions that force Israel to do without its most potent weapon, its firepower.
Last week the IDF seized Maroun-al-Ras. a village right on the border, and used it as a firm base to attack Bin Jebail. But Maroun-al-Ras is apparently not secure: a Hezb attack on Israeli positions there has caused casualties.
Despite what the press has been saying, the Israeli Army on the scene has never claimed Bin Jebail is in its hands. It has openly acknowledged both sides are intermixed.
We suggest readers not make too much of these losses. The Israelis have not fought a real battle for almost a quarter-of-a-century, and combat skill is something that has to be reacquired by every generation. The Israelis do not have the where withal to recreate Fallujah. We've said before: the IDF is a small force with limited capabilities. Losses, even heavy losses, are inevitable.
Our favorite for Point Blank Battles is the one staged at the Commissioners house in Kohima, India, between Japanese and British Empire troops in the 2nd World War. They have, of course, been bigger Point Blank battles, but for length of time, ferocity, and short distance - at one point the lines were separated by the width of two tennis courts. This is the battle in which a young British officer asked his superior: "When we die, Sir, is that it or do we simply carry on?" One of the best lines to come out of any war.
Hezbollah Launches 125 Rockets At Israel Okay, let us be the first to confess we don't have a clue as to why, as the 2nd week of this new little war is coming to an end, Hezb is still able to launch so many rockets at Israel. The only thing we can think of is the Israelis have vastly overstated their surveillance and attack capabilities against Hezb rockeeters. We knew Israel was doing a lot of overstating, but looks like we had no real understanding of how severe Israeli limitations are.
UN Post The attack was a mistake, obviously, says a top Israeli official. Right. And Saint Nickolas was actually a South Asian Punjabi who had migrated to Holland. President Bush is an alien computer construct and Brittany Spears is actually an inflatable plastic doll made - where else? - in China. And your editor's house is under siege by an army of beautiful, crazed, lustful women who are determined to capture him and remove him to their palace under Atlantis for their immoral pleasure.
Point the first: Israel attacked the post/fired close to it with artillery 14 times before the air attack. Point the second. UN says its personnel were in touch with the Israeli liaison team at least 10 times about the firing. Point the third: three precision-guided weapons were aimed at the post, of which one hit and demolished the bunker in which the 4 UN observers were sheltering. Some mistake.
Three Awards Award One, for Most Gratuitously Offensive Statement Made Today. Winner by a mile, US representative to the UN, Mr. Bolton, who says the US welcomes Israel's decision to stage an inquiry concerning the attack on the UN. You did mean "cover-up", didn't you, Mr. Ambassador?
Award Two, Klasse Klowne, to President Bush's spokesperson, Mr. Snow. He is indignant that people are calling Ms. Rice's Lebanon visit a failure. What do you mean failure, he asks, people are discussing a ceasefire, aren't they? Mr. Snow, Sir, with all respect: you can fool some of the people some of the time, but you can't fool all the people all the time.
Award Three, Dumbo Media Award, to those in the Israeli media who are asking if Israel could defeat combined Arab armies within weeks several times over, why can't the IDF defeat Hezbollah in short order. [Report in today's Washington Post.] This award involves special helmets of honor which are placed on the heads of the winning journalists. Special rays are aimed at the "brains" of winning journalists. Thanks to the rays the journalists believe they are now monkeys. They no longer suffer the terrible unhappiness that led them to become journalist - and to make us victims of their unhappiness. They are released in India, where they live happy and fulfilled lives being fed by devotees.
Israel-Lebanon: A Basic Primer
Question: Did Israel Use The Captured Servicemen As An Excuse To Attack Hezbollah?
Answer Yes. There is nothing sinister about this. Hezb has been claiming since 2000 that it ran Israel out of South Lebanon, which is true whether people want to admit it or not. When Israel withdrew from Gaza, Hamas claimed the credit and we know what happened. The new Israeli prime minister's strategic plan calls for further unilateral withdrawals. To protect his flank domestically, and to avoid another repeat of the Hamas takeover of the Palestine Authority, the PM decided he would have to play the tough guy.
Though we have not confirmed it, there is, however, evidence that the Israelis were not ready to attack at this time and this accounts for some of their missteps.
Question: Is Israel Deliberately Targeting Lebanese Civilians Under The Excuse Of Fighting Hezb?
Answer Yes. The reason is obvious and once we explain you will see that while we find the tactic reprehensible, we are not condemning Israel: every country fighting a counter-insurgency uses the same tactic. Israel wants the Lebanese to suffer enough that they rise up against Hezbollah. Standard CI tactics, the difference being Israel is applying the pressure from the air instead of on the ground.
Question: But Does Israel Not Understand If Lebanon Moves Against Hezb Civil War Will Result?
Short Answer Yes, but Israel does not care, and again, though we personally are quite unhappy, the issue is not what we think but what Tel Aviv thinks. Our objective here is to give readers a clearer picture of the behind-the-scenes war, the real one, not to pass moral judgments. I By in effect acting like Samson at the temple after his run-in with Delilah, the Israelis are saying: OK, so we're crazy, but you either do something or we'll plunge the region into war and then you'll be sorry.
If Hezb is morally permitted to kidnap Israelis and then count on world intervention to control Israel before it does its worst, Israel has to be morally permitted to draw in the international community the way it feels is effective.
Question: We Cannot Believe Israel Is Deliberately Targeting The UN Observer Force. What Does Israel Gain By Doing This?
Answer Israel has a long history of deliberate attacks on UN troops and from Tel Aviv's viewpoint there us a reason for it..
First, UNIFIL is present to observe and it has been observing. Israel does not, at this time, want it to observe. You can draw your own conclusions without difficulty as to why this should be so.
The way Israel justifies these attacks to its own people is: "Those UN observers are helping the enemy". The UN observers are not only not doing anything of the sort, they have absolutely no interest in getting involved, and it would cost them their careers if they got involved.
The first incident where an Italian observer was, we believe, a mistake. An Israeli shell was either misaimed or fell short - this happens to everyone's artillery all the time. The Israelis are past masters at lying with a straight face, so they blamed Hezbollah. The second incident where they attacked a well-marked post killing four UN soldiers that has been in place for years was deliberate. They couldn't blame Hezb for this so they're saying its a mistake.
Now, please do not infer that someone in GHQ said "attack this UN post". The decision was most likely made by local commanders who called in an air strike. There will be no regret in the IDF. Instead everyone will be cheering and saying: "That'll show them Hezb-loving Israeli-hating interfering biased UNers to mind their own business."
Incidentally, the two battalions in UNIFIL are from Ghana and India. The Ghanians absolutely and completely mind their own business. The Indians are all long service and very experienced professionals - more so than the Israelis running around in South Lebanon. India and Israel happen to have excellent military relations. And the odds are very high that the Indian battalion has done multiple-duty CI tours fighting Islamic fundamentalists. If they have any animus, it will be against Hezbollah.
We think the Israeli attack on the UN post is just another piece of asinine stupidity the Israeli are too prone too because they think they know everything about everything. At the same time, if being an ass were made into an international crime, half the US government and power elite would be indicted. The Indian government and power elite would be running a very close second.
Question: Can You Predict Where This Israel-Lebanon Affair Is Heading?
Answer We thought you'd never ask. It is heading precisely nowhere. Israel doesn't have what it takes, militarily and political, to destroy Hezb. A NATO force coming in will have a one-way ticket to nowhere. The Lebanese government cannot take on Hezb no matter how much aid you provide the army, because the army will split the day its told to attack Hezb. It will mean the end of Lebanon for another 20 years, at the minimum. Nothing is going to be resolved because the problem lies in Damascus and Teheran, and no one is about to march on those two capitals.
Question: But Then What Do Israel And Hezbollah Hope To Achieve?
Answer Paradoxically, both have already achieved their objectives.
Hezb is back to being the Number 1 player in Lebanon with the usual "We're the only ones who stood up for Lebanon when the evil Israelis attacked." Much of the effect of getting Syria out of Lebanon has been undone - more on this another time. We suggest readers not get taken by all the media propaganda about how angry the Lebanese are with Hezbollah. Sure there are very angry people - but those are the Druze, Christians, Sunnis, secularists, all of whom hated Hezb to begin with. Hezb's constituency is the Shia, who are in a minority, but are the largest of the ethnic groups. Hezb are heroes to their constituency.
The Israeli government has shown its people it is tough. It is tacitly saying: "you want us to be more tough? We'll show you more tough." But the people will be saying very soon: "Please don't, we don't want a rapidly expanding war, we believe you when you say you are tough". Domestic objectives have been achieved and everyone is getting ready to be happy and stop before the thing gets out of hand. And Israel has got the world - principally its long-suffering ally the US - back into Lebanon.
Both sides have done well. The people of Lebanon? Well, who cares about a bunch of Middle Easterners anyway? This is not the Balkans, for heaven's sake.
0230 GMT July 25, 2006
Israel-Lebanon Israel says it is battling Hezbollah fighters for control of a border town of 20,000 Shiites that is the center of the rocket launching lot. It says it has killed 40 and another 100+ are fleeing north, but another report we've seen, in Jerusalem Post, has an Israeli commander saying Hezb is fighting as if it intends to hold the town.
Please note Lebanese authorities are saying 20 Lebanese Army soldiers and 11 Hezb fighters have been killed. Now, that does not look like it includes the Hezb casualties in the border battles.
More Israeli dead due to attacks on tanks. Israel obviously is not going to release figures on how many tanks it has lost and are recovered, but the armor is taking a beating. Two reasons: the Israelis use armor everywhere, all time; and the terrain is cut up and heavily laced with mines. One Merkeva was flipped by a mine killing one crew member, another was hit by an ATGM killing a crew member.
Meanwhile, the usual quota of rockets landed on Israeli territory.
As is often the case with Israeli action, there is firing on ambulances and refusal to let the UN deliver relief supplies. The Israelis haven't explained why they attacked two ambulances; in due time expect them to say the ambulances were being used by Hezb to transport men and supplies. There is no way of knowing if this is true, but frankly, looking at the extreme manner in which the US Army doctrine of better safe than sorry has been applied in Iraq, and seeing as we have not condemned it, we don't see Orbat.com is in a good position to pass judgment on the Israelis. As for the relief supplies, well, Israel has a reputation for making things as tough as possible for the civilian population. There is a lot of racism in the Israeli attitude toward Arabs; again, we cannot condemn anyone. We can't imagine the Arabs treating the Israeli civil population gently if the situation were reversed.
UN Refugee Chief Blasts Hezbollah in extraordinarily strong terms for hiding behind the civilian population to minimize its own losses. UN officials normally have to watch what they say because they cannot afford to be seen as taking sides. But, see, here's the problem. Hiding behind civilians is what guerillas do. Heaven forbid the US should ever be invaded/occupied by a foreign power; but were it to happen, the US would fight a guerilla war and do the same thing.
Pakistan Says Baluch Rebellion Quelled We're a bit dubious because there is very tight censorship on Baluchistan happenings and it doesn't seem likely Pakistan could have succeeded in a few months. In 1972-76 - or as some date it, 1973-77, the Pakistanis needed 4 years to put down the Baluch.
Nonetheless, until out errant South Asia editor Mr. Mandeep Singh Bajwa says otherwise, we have no evidence to cast doubt on the Pakistani claim.
Ethiopian Troops Reported In A 2nd Central Somali Town says BBC. This is in Wajid. They are already in Baidoa, capital of the interim government.
"Hundreds" Of Taliban Attack Police Post in Helmand province, say agencies. What intrigues us is that the Taliban withdrew after some hours. So hundreds of Taliban cannot over a police post? And this comes after it took the Taliban two weeks to overrun a 40-person police post. So what's the deal here, guys? These Taliban fighters either aren't worth much, or the Afghan police is a lot tougher than they're being given credit for.
0230 GMT July 24, 2006
Israel-Lebanon The usual sound and fury signifying nothing yesterday. Israel bombed away, but its main target area, south Beirut, has been vacated by the residents and Hezbollah fighters are still in control, not the Lebanese government. Meanwhile Hezbollah fired rockets left and right, and injured a few Israelis.
Syria coyly said it is prepared to open direct talks with the US over the Hezbollah question. Since Syria is the problem, we don't see what it can contribute to the solution, and we hope Washington doesn't fall for this A-1 Dumb gambit for Syria to get legitimacy .
Israel coyly said it could see itself accepting an international force, meaning UN authorized but a NATO force, not a UN peacekeeping mission. US coyly said this is all worth thinking about.
Meanwhile the people of Lebanon are getting hammered, with 500,000 internally displaced persons created in less than two weeks. Very little aid is getting through to them because bridges are down and there is no assurance from Israel it won't attack aid convoys.
Israel says it has captured 2 Hezb guerillas. Whoopie.
Israel, Please Don't Help Me The Israeli foreign minister tells the Washington Post Israel is helping Lebanon deal with Hezbollah. Did Lebanon ask for the help? Destroying Lebanon's infrastructure will help on the matter of Hezbollah? Talk about Orwell 1984.
But, in fairness to the Israelis, this style of Black is White and White is Black declamation delivered with an utterly straight face was invented right here is the good old USA. Liberals blame the conservatives for having developed the mode of argument. In fairness to the conservatives, the hard left has long used agitprop techniques. If anything, the conservatives took the mode from the hard left, but we can still claim an American provenance in the sense Americans made it effective.
Pardon Us, Our American Is Showing Readers will have noticed we've become progressively more tetchy regarding the Israelis as this pointless, badly though out, and even worse executed war has progressed. That is the American in us. Americans have no time for losers, no matter how gallant. No one bothers with the "its not if you win or lose, but how you play the game" in America. American coaches tell their teams: "go and kill the other guy, and if you don't succeed, please kill yourself - and don't waste my time by coming home dead on your shield because I won't be around". So it is with us and the Israelis. The Israelis win, they are golden. They fumble, they're losers for whom we have no time. Sorry, Israeli boys and girls. That's life.
A Letter On Targeting Civilians from Name Withheld by Request. "Israel says it is using precision targeting whereas Hezbollah is indiscriminately attacking civilians. Almost every able-bodied person, at least among the males, is a soldier to some degree. Further, Israel has sophisticated weapons provided by the US. Hezbollah has only unguided area saturation weapons. It is passing strange that the Israelis, with their precision weapons, have killed hundreds of civilians, a toll completely disproportionate to what Hezbollah has managed to inflict on Israel.
Editor's comment: We hear you, but Israel is in a war, the enemy is famous for its propaganda and we should not get overly worked up if the Israelis have theirs. Propaganda is a legitimate tool of war. In the case of both combatants the propaganda is oriented towards their home base and we don't think - or at least we hope - that either side expects outsiders to take the propaganda seriously.
Afghanistan British troops and Afghan police kill 19 Taliban and capture 17, including two Pakistanis.
Sadly, the Canadians lose two soldiers to a suicide bomber who rams their vehicle. The world ahs had a lot of fun criticizing the way American troops drive. We hope the Canadians at least will now understand why the Americans use the tactics they do.
Saddam On Hunger Strike, In Hospital Understandably little attention is being paid to Iraq these days. Saddam has been on a hunger strike and was carted off to hospital where he is being fed through a tube.
The Baghdad civil war is raging in full force with strikes and counterstrikes being made daily, sometimes several times a day, by the Shias against the Sunnis and vice versa.
We see no sign the Administration is prepared to acknowledge the obvious and pay to resettle Sunnis in their majority provinces. What's the logic here, folks? In Yugoslavia the United States was directly responsible for the breakup of the federation under the very sound principle that you cannot force people who don't want top live together to live together. So why not in Iraq? US spends $2-billion a week in Iraq. We estimate that $25,000 per Sunni family would be a very generous resettlement. For $2.5 billion you could resettle 100,000 Sunni families, at least half a million people.
Americans used to be known as the "Can do" people; if there was a problem, there was a solution. Nowadays, however, the Administration seems to have a standard response to problems in Iraq: the deer in the headlights look.
Now its true that's the look the editor gets in his eyes when the former Mrs. Rikhye arrives and demands to know how come he had a dollar to spare to buy a Lotto ticket - the editor buys his Lotto ticket at the same place the former Mrs. Rikhye picks up her wine and cigarettes. But then your editor is neither running the country, nor is he demanding taxpayers pay for his deer in the headlights look.
0230 GMT July 23, 2006
Israel-Lebanon: Endgame
Except that our timing estimates - based on Israeli sources - were off, the endgame is in sight on the lines we had predicted. No great credit to us, an IQ 60 person could have done the same. Our timing - and fortunately for Israel its own timing - was off because much to the surprise of the US/Israelis there has been almost no world reaction to the Israeli air offensive. Israel thought it had a week; the US has purchased two more.
An international force will go into southern Lebanon. The US has already squirmed its way out of contributing combat troops - we don't have any to spare says America. In reality, the US has no intention of becoming a target for Hezbollah and every certifiable lunatic in the region as happened with previous US interventions/participations in international forces.
When the force is ready to start arriving, Israel will graciously hand over south Lebanon and withdraw.
A mission will be set up to train, equip, and expand the Lebanese Army so that one day it can take over from the international force.
What happens then? Well, what happens then is a continuous series of messes that the world will be dealing with for years, because Hezb and other Shiites groups will be using the international force for target practice. But Israel will no longer have to do much except sit on its side of the border and criticize the international force for every mistake it makes. Each time people start wondering if the cost of the international force is worth it, Israeli will start huffing and puffing and threatening to blow Lebanon's house down. People will immediately relent.
Once readers appreciate the above dynamics, they can easily see what Israel's intent in targeting so much of Lebanon's infrastructure. A lot of us have been wondering what the military rationale has been - quietly because we did not want to seem disloyal to the US and by extension Israel. There is no military rationale for most of the strikes, but there is a very clever political one. If Israel had really been as selective in its targeting as it claims, it could have had to continue fighting in Lebanon for years. By hammering Lebanon and threatening to level it, the Israelis have assured themselves of international protection whereas without the suffering inflicted on the Lebanese there is no way anyone would have touched the Lebanon-Hezb-Israel problem with a barge pole. In effect, the Israelis have inflicted suffering on the Lebanese and will continue to do so till the world arrives to address Israel's security problems.
This is brilliant strategy, and while in our personal opinion it is a despicable one, we have to congratulate Tel Aviv on achieving success.
This is the third time in 15 years someone else will have fought Israel's wars. First was in Gulf I, where the Israelis kept threatening they would intervene on grounds Idiot Saddam was firing Scuds. Israeli intervention would have killed the war to depose Saddam, so the US kept sitting on Israel and telling it that the US would do the job. Officially the Israelis kept snarling "let us at them lousy Iraqis", unofficially they would smile at how easily they had turned Saddam's mistakes to their advantage. It was very well done.
But George The First did not go all the way to Baghdad and Iraq remained Israel's most potent military enemy. In earlier decades, the US had neutralized Jordan and Egypt which were no long Israeli enemies; Syria had been marginalized, and thanks to Gulf II - which many Americans suspect was really fought to provide security to Israel - Israel was freed from the Iraqi threat. Very well done, Tel Aviv, especially the feeding of false information on WMDs to Washington. Of course, Saudi and Jordan were equally complicit. Now the US has helped Israel tame Hamas - we're waiting for some real confirmation of latest developments - and the world will take over the job of taming Hezbollah. Game, set, and match. Yesterday we suggested it was time the Israelis understood it was the Americans, not them, who are masters of war. Today we freely acknowledge the Israelis are masters of defensive diplomacy.
Of course, the whole international mission will be a disaster, Hezb will grow stronger - some thought is being given to monitoring the Syria-Lebanon border to starve Hezb, but no one is serious about this, BUT: others will be carrying the can for Israel.
Developments
Hezb Fired 150 Rockets Yesterday and so much for our saying Israel was achieving success in reducing the number of rocket attacks. They had fallen for at least the previous three days, but now Hezb has returned in greater strength. Still, it is just a matter of time before the attacks fall because Hezb will be pushed further north.
Israeli Army Seizes Lebanon Border Village and turfs Hezb out. Israel says it will turn over village to the Lebanese Army or international force. So terribly gracious of you, Tel Aviv and as far we are concerned, you don't have to continue with the act, you are free to go laugh your head off at how you've diddled the international community. We've already offered our general congratulations.
The Rest Of the News
Islamic Courts Declares Jihad Against Ethiopia Our reaction is a big yawn and a "pass the cucumber sandwiches, dear". Like anyone cares about the ICU's jihad.
More to the point, ICU's first act after declaring jihad against the arriving Ethiopians is to withdraw away from Baidoa, on which ICU had been advancing. No military fools, this ICU rabble. They know the Ethiopians can swat them down like flies, so they've taken a step back to plan their next step.
The Newest Fighting Tigers - The Dutch? Folks, we kid you not. Reader Marcopetroni sends us a news item about Netherlands troops in Afghanistan staging a counteroffensive against Taliban preparing to attack their positions. They not only killed 18 Taliban, they suffered no casualties. And we learn that previously the contingent has killed "dozens" of Taliban.
Our sincere congratulations to the Dutch. They incidentally help make our point is that in the west its not the soldiers who have become simpering sissies of the "You're so mean, you beat me with a flower, you beat me every hour" variety, its the politicals.
Nonetheless, the Dutch being the Dutch - very polite - are quite apologetic about their success, saying that if they hadn't done the Taliban would have interfered with their development work and so on. Note from Orbat.com: fellas, fellas, fellas: you DONT have to apologize, you're exterminating the scum of the universe who are oh so great at beating up women and trading drugs - real he-men, you know - and little else. You're doing good. Now go out and kill some more of the vermin.
0230 GMT July 22, 2006
This Is What Israel Has
Achieved? After 10 days of intense air attacks and some sharp ground
action, Israel says it has killed 100 Hezbollah fighters and has the
bodies of 13. We are severely underwhelmed. This does not equate to a
50% destruction of Hezb capability. There are no good estimates of its
personnel strength, estimates range from 3000 up. Had the US launched
3000 sorties and netted 100 dead - and that is likely to be an
exggeration - it would be counted as a huge disgrace. We are not
impressed about the claimed destruction of weapons stocks and launchers.
First, these can and will be replaced; second, Israel has no real idea
of the stocks - see
www.defenseindustrydaily
For years we have had to seethe quietly at the outrageous claims Israelis and their supporters make about how the IDF is soooooo much better than the US military at this that and the other. For example, Arrow is a better missile than Patriot 3. First, Arrow is in a different class of missile than Patriot 3. Second, Arrow is a joint Israeli-American effort. Third, Arrow has been tested in combat - can someone tell us, as your editor ages his memory fails - precisely where? If it isn't Israeli fighter pilots are simply the best in the world then their CI units are the best and their ECM is just so amazingly fantastic and their netcentric warfare capabilities are just so stunning and so on and so forth.
Its time the Israelis realized they are fighting a different type of enemy: wily, highly motivated, complete support of the population, and most of all - one who has spent 6 years preparing the battlefield while Israel fiddled. Its time they realized they have to shape up if they are going to come out of South Lebanon without egg all over their faces. And its time they learned a little humility and understood the masters of the game are not them but - dare we say it - the Americans, you know, the ones the Israelis think are so dumb and badly trained and so on.
Israel is operating under tight military censorship and there is only a hint of the trouble its units are facing in South Lebanon. But we want Israel to win simply because the US is backing Israel to the hilt: an Israeli defeat on any level is an American defeat and an Iranian victory.
Israel Preparing 3-4 Divisions on Lebanon Border says Jerusalem Post. CNN says 6000 reservists are being called up.
We suspect Israel is going to make a short, showy incursion with lots of impressive picture of tanks and SP artillery and then it is going to pull back, resolving nothing. But lets wait and see.
Suggested reading: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5202752.stm
Here Is A Real Israeli Achievement It seems the number of rockets landing on Israeli territory has fallen below 50 a day as opposed to 100/day at the start of the current crisis. That is all to the good.
Readers are expecting our big fat BUT and we will not disappoint them. A guerilla force may reasonably be expected to withdraw or play possum when it is under pressure. Whatever is happening in the rest of Lebanon, certainly Hezb is under pressure on the border. The real test will come when the pressure is off. If Hezb then fails to launch rockets or create general mayhem, Israel will have succeeded for the time being.
Comcast Hi-Speed Cable Internet Service Dies Again For the privilege of this aggravation your editor pays $65/month. Running on back up dial-up which is running very slow. Time to upload before something else goes wrong.
0230 GMT July 21, 2006
Ethiopian Troops Arrive In Baidoa, Somalia to protect the provisional government against the impending Islamic Courts offensive. We assume the Islamic Courts will now not attack directly: the Ethiopians can deploys tens of thousands of soldiers with heavy weapons, armor, and artillery, against the hundreds the Islamic Courts militia deploys; Somalia's Islamic radicals have been thrashed twice before in the 1990s by the Ethiopians.
Israel-Lebanon Analysis
The situation is so diffuse that to adequately summarize it requires more time than we have. A few points have to suffice.
Midweek Deadline Has Passed and there is no sign of Israel pulling back on its offensive. This is because the US has essentially given Israel a free hand to whack Hezbollah. Now, the US does not itself have a free pass here: the Europeans in particular are getting very upset with the US on the matter and sooner or later political pressure is going to build up on Washington. Since Washington has gone all goo-goo over multilateralism recently, such as over Iran, it cannot afford to alienate the Europeans. Also, while the world has been pretty understanding of Israel's actions, the way the Israelis are going about matters - beating up Lebanon - is starting to upset people other than the Europeans.
An International Force Is Out Of The Question We have no hesitation is declaring this is one of the stupider ideas EU chanceries are working on. Are the UN/EU/Russia etc prepared to fight Hezbollah? We don't think so. As such, deploying such a force - which appears unlikely at this time - will turn into a grade A disaster.
Israel Has No Choice But To Escalate The Ground War Inspired perhaps by our very own Rummy Rumster, the Israelis started this war with one of their dumber ideas: they were going to fight from the air. Very quickly they had to send small units into the border zone. We advise readers to put the Israeli rhetoric aside: the fighting is proving much harder than expected, and Israeli sources are already talking of the need to expand the ground operation. They are also speaking of weeks of ground operations.
Now, Hezb has longer range missiles than it did the last time around. The new buffer zone will have to be so wide as to occupy at least half of Lebanon. Once Israel enters Lebanon in force, it is going to have to fight not just Hezb, but also Lebanese who will object to the reoccupation of their country. This will be no means the majority of the Lebanese, but it is something to be considered.
Re The Air War Israel now grandly announces it has destroyed 50% of Hezbollah's capability. In 10 days of bombing the Is.AF has not managed to shut down Hezb's TV station Al Manar. We need say no more.
This is not to disrespect the Is.AF. It is simply to point out that airpower is terrific for destroying someone wanting to fight you out in the open. It is of less utility when the other side simply needs to hide and survive.
Also, the Is.AF is not the US Air Force. It is a relatively small air arm with capabilities that are much more limited than the US's air arms. There is so much propaganda about the Is.AF and Israel's fighting capabilities in general that our point may not be obvious.
A note on Israel's ground troops. They consist of a small core of highly capable professionals and a mass of reservists of varying capabilities. This was not evident in Israel's conventional wars because the opposition was so pathetic in terms of leadership, training, and motivation. But if there is to be prolonged war in southern Lebanon, it will become painfully evident.
As for closing down the Syrian border and Hezb resupply from the sea: we will be brief and say to people who think Israel can do this: in dreams perhaps. Supplies are going to keep flowing.
Is There No Solution? Of course there is. Take out Syria and the problem of Hezbollah gets reduced by 90%. Israel does not, repeat, does not have the capabilities needed to take Syria out. Israel is a tiny country of 6 million people, a significant fraction of whom are Arab and not liable for military service. Israel in many ways is just a big city state. Israel cannot militarily knock Syria out and more importantly, it can do nothing about the political dimension which is far more important. We are talking about regime change.
The solution lies in Washington DC, not in Tel Aviv.
And if anyone thinks Washington is up to the job, then all we can say is, very nicely, can Orbat.com join you in partaking of what you are partaking of? It must be the really, really good stuff.
So Is There No Point To This War? We can't speak for the Israelis, but from the US's viewpoint, of course there is a point to this war. Iran thought it was striking back at the US by unleashing Hezbollah. Iran has not hurt the US to the point where even a little itty bitty band aid is needed. As far as the US is concerned, all to the good that Israel is fighting Hezbollah.
As far as we are concerned - and let us be brutally frank about it - its time the Israelis did something for the US. Enough said.
What needs to happen, however, is that Israel has to fairly soon reduce this war to a low-level one it can sustain indefinitely. Israel cannot maintain this pace for long. Once the ground war starts its casualties and costs will shoot up. And by the way, this time around Hezbollah will be looking to capture more Israelis.
Letter From Alex Larsen You posted this July 17 "We are the first ones to say we will be delighted to be proved wrong, but as of right now we see no will for strikes against Iran. The US military is not on board, and after the Iraq fiasco, it will not simply salute and say "Ave Boss" to the president. It will make its disagreement public, at which point the US public is going to say: if the professionals are against it, forget it. We do see a blockade as doable and acceptable to the military. The advantage of a blockade is that it puts the onus of escalation on the other side, it will cost very little in terms of money and lives, it will give the US the opportunity to nibble away at Iranian defenses each time the Iranians do something stupid like attack the blockade, and it will cripple Iran. If Iran stops oil exports, it goes down the tubes that much faster: the world has enough in stock to do with Iran for 4 years."
Obviously you subscribe to the US military less discipline, and more political power, than it actually has. First of all, short of something that is clearly illegal and unconstitutional, every branch of the US military will follow the President's orders without hesitation. If they're ordered to prepare and execute an attack against Iran, they'll do it happily and with the same level of competence that they displayed during Operation: Iraqi Freedom. As a matter of fact, it is the view of many servicemen that the US would be best served to take out every tin-pot dictatorship that even looks weirdly at the United States; I know about 140 personally and they all share that view and I get the impression that a vast majority (super majority would be an understatement) do as well.
As per your view that the Armed Forces would ever speak out against their civilians superiors, the idea amuses me but is clearly wrong. The average US Joe Soldier hates politics, their view on political figures is largely on said politicians character and whether or not they agree with the soldier's world view. Bush and Rumsfield enjoy the near-unanimous support of the Soldiers, Marines, Airman, and Seaman because he's seen as a cowboy with a no-nonsense attitude that'll do what needs to be done. To them, OIF was a long time coming because it would finally finish a job that was left incomplete. The servicemen who don't like the current administration will keep their traps shut, because it's literally against the UCMJ to support any political cause publicly while identifying themselves as a service member or to speak negatively against their military or civilian superiors in a manner that is likely to become public.
This isn't the first time somebody's posted similar comments on the internet about the US military not obeying orders. The thing about the military is that it's basically a dictatorship, rights as civilians know them don't exist for servicemen. If a superior says, "Jump!" the servicemen is going to respond immediately and without thinking, "Yes, sir! Moving, sir!" Of course, I can't speak for other militaries, there probably are a great many who don't posses that level of discipline, but the US military certainly does.
Comment from the Editor We suspect Mr. Larsen and we are talking of two different things. Of course the military will follow orders. But are those orders ever going to be given in the face of solid opposition at the highest military leadership levels? We think not.
The top echelons of the military have many ways of making their views known before orders are issued. And they have a very powerful tool in case orders are issued but they disagree with the orders. That is resignation.
The military abdicated its responsibilities in Second Indochina: they obeyed orders and the results are well known. The military swore this would not happen again. But it did, when they went into Gulf II: they were again just following orders. Are they going to do it a third time, i.e., blindly throw their support and energies behind some new, harebrained scheme thought up by this civilian Pentagon and a handful of clueless advisors? On what we hear, we believe they will not.
If the Pentagon comes up with a viable plan to defang Iran and the aftermath, there is no reason for the military to object. The military aspects are simple, we have argued the difficulties are vastly overstated. But what happens after the 300 targets of interest are reduced to rubble? There is no evidence whatsoever that this administration is capable of coming up with the needed viable plan to begin with, leave alone executing it. Such a plan requires the President to draw on enormous reserves of leadership capital. At this time he is politically bankrupt and he knows it.
When President Bush is overheard moaning about why Kofi Annan is not doing something about Syria, then the American executive has reached a new low. That one set of comments by President Bush accurately reflects his own assessment of his power.
Special Award For Extreme Best Taste
And the award goes to www.pizzaidf.com This is such bad taste we think its better readers check it out themselves. But what the hey: love the Israelis or hate them - and on a person level your editor loves them - when it comes to bad taste they are about the only serious competition America has. There are many great things about America; the complete fearlessness in exhibiting bad taste is for sure one of them.
By the way, talk about stupidity. The above site invites you to send pizza and soda for an Israeli Army company of 90 men for $269 ($250 tax deductible for US taxpayers). For this sum, the firm will deliver 18 pizza pies and 18 bottles of soda to your favorite Israeli Army company.
Our sole question is: in which world do these people live that they think 18 pizza pies and 18 bottles of soda suffice for 90 soldiers? You editor teaches middle school, and he knows from personal experience that quantity of treat will not treat 90 middle schoolers unless they have had a heavy breakfast and a pre-lunch snack, and are certain of a pre-dinner snack and then a heavy dinner plus free run of the family 'fridge after dinner. Of course, these are American middle schoolers who do to food what African locusts do crops. May be the Israeli Army's soldiers are dainty eaters with ballet dancer figures to maintain and are watching their weight. But if they are not - as we suspect to be the case - does the above firm realize how much soldiers eat? Let's try 90 pizzas for an 90 man infantry company expecting a small treat.
Get real, pizzaidf.
Oh yes - the award: it consists of an empty 2-liter plastic soda bottle with the words "I am an idiot" labeled in permanent marker. The head of the firm can use it to beat his head and maybe that way acquire some sense of taste.
0230 GMT July 20, 2006
Is.AF Drops 23-tons Of Bombs On Hezbollah Bunker located in a refugee camp in South Beirut, on information received. All Israel will say is that Hezbollah leaders were believed in the bunker: it makes no claim the Hezbollah leader was inside.
Now Watch The Clowns Arrive Hezbollah says the bunker was only a mosque under construction. Must be a special mosque because the site is out of bounds for the Lebanese police and government. How about this thought: Hezb was indeed building a mosque over the bunker. It is known to hide its HQs and weapons storage under civilian sites.
Israeli Army Loses 2 Killed In South Lebanon Fighting and two children are killed in a rocket attack. Is.AF says it has completed 3000 sorties and now have destroyed 40-50% of Hezbollah's capability. We suppose that since Hezb gets to talk rubbish all the time the Israelis can be excused for talking rubbish some of the time. First, since the criteria have not been revealed, no one can know what the Israelis have achieved or not achieved. Second, wartime claims are notoriously inflated. Third, Israel does not have good intelligence on all aspects of Hezbollah.
Intensity Of Israeli Air War Lebanon says it has lost 300 killed. Considering the scale of the Israeli air offensive, we are astonished so few have died.
Before anyone takes this as an endorsement of Israeli restraint, please consider Lebanon is all of 10,000 square kilometers, or roughly the size of Connecticut, the 3rd smallest state in the US - only Delaware and Rhode Island are smaller. So if you can visualize 3000 sorties flown over Connecticut, a substantial proportion with smart bombs, you will see there is no restraint. Israel is clobbering everything in sight. Clarification: we have no position on if the air offensive is excessive or not excessive: these are political/moral judgments which have no bearing on military issues.
Gaza is, of course, out of the headlines; nonetheless, military operations continue there. Some people are saying Iran cleverly diverted the G-8s attention from its N-program to the Lebanon crisis. Iran also cleverly diverted everyone's attention from Gaza to the Lebanon crisis, and actually what's happening in Gaza is more important to Israel. Gotta admire those giant minds in Teheran, they are so clever they outfox everyone, including themselves.
Indian Navy Prepares To Evacuate Indians From Lebanon Its nice to see the Indian Navy at work. The missile destroyer Mumbai and missile frigates Bharamputra and Betwa, supported by the fleet oiler Shakti make up the Indian task force now docking at the port of Beirut. Report from Press Trust of India.
Islamic Courts Advance On Baidoa which is home to the provisional government of Somalia. The militia is about 60-km from the interim capital.
In Case You Didn't Have Enough To Worry About Looks like an earthquake in the Horn of Africa last September has created a fracture that could see the Horn separating from the rest of the continent in one million years. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/5191384.stm But consider the positive aspects: there will be no need to widen the Suez as the Mediterranean and Red Seas will become connected.
0230 GMT July 19, 2006
[1430 GMT] Second Afghan Town Retaken by US/Afghan forces. There was some skirmishing but no real fighting.
[1430 GMT] Small Israeli Force In South Lebanon Border Zone is looking for weapons dumps, tunnels, and missile launchers, says Israel. Troops have been going back and forth during the past days. There has been fighting with Hezbollah at one point just north of the border.
Meanwhile, the air offensive continues.
CNN's Nic Robertson was taken by Hezbollah on a tour of south Beirut buildings leveled by the Is.AF. His escorts claimed they were all civilian buildings and asked why the UN wasn't doing anything to stop the Israelis.
Mr. Robertson says the tour was very quick - his escorts said they could be attacked at any time - and he was unable to verify if the buildings were used for military purpose. The point here is that Hezbollah is not a constituted military force. Its fighters live and store weapons among civilians.
As for why is the UN not doing anything: did Hezbollah honestly believe they could start a fight and have the UN/world community step in to help them? The UN/West's focus has been on getting Hezbollah out of Lebanon, not on legitimizing its presence.
One Afghan Town Retaken; Operations for Other in Progress In one of the two towns lost to the Taliban, a police garrison of 42 held out for 16 days before withdrawing says an Afghan official. If this is so, the conclusion should be not the Afghan police cannot fight the insurgents. Rather, they did so, and well. The failure is that of the government for not sending reinforcements earlier.
Row About Travel Payments US Evacuees Must Make The Senate Democratic leader is incensed about the payments US evacuees from Lebanon must make. In one report we see a figure of $3000 mention for evacuation to Cyprus, no baggage allowed, and of course there will be extra charges from Cyprus to home.
Two problems here. First, US law requires reimbursement. So the good Madam Congresswoman is lambasting the wrong target. She can always move to get the law changed retroactively, and she should should apologize for her ire.
Second, US State Department has been warning US citizens for years not to travel to Lebanon. So why should the taxpayer be made responsible for the travel costs of those who ignored warnings and now need to be evacuated?
Minor Israeli Reserve Call Up 3 battalions have been called up for Gaza duty; that will free an equivalent number of troops for duty in the north.
Turkey Acts Up It warns it will invade Kurdistan unless unspecified steps are taken to stop Kurd raids into Turkey. Clearly Turkey is taking advantage of the lax world reaction to the Israeli offensive against Lebanon.
We are not sure, however, that Turkey has its logic right. The Kurds are fighting for an independent state. This is not the same thing as Hezbollah fighting for the destruction of Israel: the Kurds are happy to live and let live vis-ŕ-vis Turkey, they simply want to be left alone to do their thing.
Kidnapping Of Israeli Soldiers May Become Monumental Iranian Mistake First, lets put the Iranian assertion that Hezbollah is an independent organization where it belongs, in the toilet, and flush. Hezbollah's leaders ahs time and again says he takes his orders from the Iranians.
This is hardly an original thing for us to say, just about everyone is saying it: faced as it is with a deteriorating situation on the N-issue, Iran decided to counterattack against the US by activating Hezbollah. What the media is not mentioning: Iran is also under pressure by insurgents and internal unrest on every border.
Instead of gaining anything, Hezbollah is going to be weakened. We put the Israeli rhetoric about being able to destroy Hezbollah in the wastebasket. Israel cannot destroy Hezbollah. Only the west can, by regime change in Syria - that will destroy its rear bases, and by sending its own troops plus strengthening the Lebanese government so that Hezbollah in Lebanon can be eliminated. Iran, however, has perfectly created the conditions under which these moves become possible. The Arabs hate Israel's innards, but they don't like Iran much either, and they are mad as heck that Iran has inflamed the Mideast for its own petty reasons. And as reader Paul Danish has noted, the Sunni Arabs are thrilled and delighted to see Shia Hezbollah getting it in the neck.
So not only is unleashing Hezbollah a big, big mistake Teheran has made, it has made a mistake in immediately rejecting the west's offers for compromise on the N-issue. Had it appeared to compromise, it could have bought 3-5 years more time to work on its N-program. DPRK, for instance, bought at least 8 years if not more.
It is said of George Bush he is lucky in his enemies. He has made a gargantuan mistake in Iraq. But Iran seems determined to make things easy for Dubya by making equally big and equally stupid mistakes.
0230 GMT July 18, 2006
Taliban Take Over Two Towns In Helmand Province after forcing local police and officials to flee. Of course, the Taliban will be driven out with serious losses - again, they really need to read their Mao. The issue here is that Helmand is an area that has not been under government control since the 2001 war. NATO is extending its control over Helmand. So we have to be careful not to assume the situation has worsened. Earlier, Taliban/renegades ruled the roost and there was no need to take over anything because they had effective control, even if we didn't hear about it every day since western troops were not present.
Stabilization Force Requirement Estimated At 8,000 and the Italians are quite enthusiastic about contributing. That's very sweet of the government, and we assume after Hezbollah kills a few dozen Italians the contingent will return home as has happened in Iraq because the public will lose heart for the mission. We'd love for the Italians to prove us wrong, and we have no doubt their army has what it takes. But the government does not, and particularly so because it has such a thin majority. The slightest thing goes wrong and the government will be under pressure.
Israel, Hezbollah Continue Their Slugfest with Hezbollah, of course, getting the worst of it by far. The problem is that Hezbollah is not in this for military victories, but political ones, and that Hezbollah can simply stay in the ring suffices to give it political victory. That is the nature of guerilla war.
Hezbollah hit at least 11 Israeli towns and settlements, causing negligible damage. Israel bombed everything in sight; again, its Lebanon is taking the brunt of the damage. We assume Hezbollah is in deep hiding with the exception of the rocket crews and we believe the Israeli figure of having degraded 25% of Hezbollah's capability has simply been pulled from the air. There is no basis for the figure. The only way Hezbollah can be hurt is if Syria is taken out and no one is prepared to do that at this time.
Letter From Luke Greysmith In response to your question as to what does the Israeli offensive mean: It means that Israel will take full advantage of the provocation to eliminate as many enemy assets as possible. The question is what are the Iranians and they Syrians thinking?
Can Times Of London Put A Sock In It, Please? Is this a real newspaper or one run by 10th graders? Times breathlessly tells us the evacuation from Lebanon will rival Dunkirk. In case readers think we are making it up, click http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,251-2273361,00.html Times says Britain is planning on having to evacuate about 25,000 people.
This comparison is so ridiculously stupid we don't want to waste time on it. We are working on a special award for Times, something along the lines of "Award For People Completely Ignorant Of Their Own History".
Analysis By Paul Danish
0230 GMT July 17, 2006
Israel-Lebanon Situation 1630 GMT
[1630 GMT Israel Denies Losing F-16 Over Lebanon The falling object shown on Arab TV is probably a missile, says a defense spokesperson.
[1630 GMT] Fresh Attacks On Haifa, Tiberias, Safed, Karmiel, Acre Haifa port is closed because of Hezbollah attacks. Three rocket barrages hit the city today, with the toll being 11 hospitalized after an apartment building was hit.
[1630 GMT] Israel Says will Create South Lebanon Buffer Zone No details.
[1630 GMT] UNIFIL Present Only As Observers Surprisingly, there has been no media discussion about the UN force in the South Lebanon 10-15 km buffer and the force commander has made no statements of any side that we an find.
The 2000 troop force, consisting of a Ghana battalion and an Indian battalion, is authorized only to observe. Any new force would have to be much stronger and more heavily armed, with a clear mandate to counter any Hezbollah attempt to enter the zone.
[1230 GMT] Tony Blair, Kofi Annan Propose Stabilization Force For South Lebanon Russia may participate.
[1230 GMT] Israeli Troops Enter Border Village which straddles Israel and Lebanon; they are constructing a wall with the intention of bringing the village entirely into Israel (Jerusalem Post). Lebanon says Israeli troops have entered South Lebanon, which is technically correct but makes the incursion look more dramatic than it is.
[1230 GMT] Hezbollah Using Tripoli Radar To Track Israeli Aircraft which is one reason Israel has attacked the radar. We don't believe Hezbollah is operating its own radar stations, as such this would represent an example of Hezbollah-Lebanese cooperation.
Iran Rejects Limits On N-Program says Xinhua quoting an Iranian National Security Council official. Teacher, can we please go home now? This topic is boring beyond endurance.
Anyhows, in the true journalistic tradition we plod on: US/EU/China/Russia have asked Teheran to come clean on all aspects of its N-program and to agree to suspend its uranium enrichment program. Following which the powers above will swing into action and offer Iran civilian N-technology. Iran has said "fuggedabhatit" and the only think that amazes us is that here the powers were giving Iran a few years leeway where it could have pretended to negotiate, but Iran has refused to take the extra time.
A lot of people think that the US, UK, France are perfectly aware that the bottom line is a big fat No from Teheran, but they are drawing out this farce so as to show the world in general, and the Russians and PRC in particular, that they have gone the extra kilometer in willingness to talk, and the extra 10 kilometers after that. According to this theory, the world and the Russians/PRC will have no option but to agree to a Chapter 7 resolution against Iran, which the US/UK/France will use as the legal justification to clobber Iran.
A variant of this theory is that US in particular is solely concerned about its domestic opinion, US is willing to take action as long the electorate understands the government has tried everything else first. This theory implies the US, at least, is not overly bothered if it doesn't get a Chapter 7 resolution. President Bush, according to both versions of the theory, doesn't want to leave the Iran problem to his successor and will act when conditions are right.
You are welcome to add come up with your own theory.
We are the first ones to say we will be delighted to be proved wrong, but as of right now we see no will for strikes against Iran. The US military is not on board, and after the Iraq fiasco, it will not simply salute and say "Ave Boss" to the president. It will make its disagreement public, at which point the US public is going to say: if the professionals are against it, forget it. We do see a blockade as doable and acceptable to the military. The advantage of a blockade is that it puts the onus of escalation on the other side, it will cost very little in terms of money and lives, it will give the US the opportunity to nibble away at Iranian defenses each time the Iranians do something stupid like attack the blockade, and it will cripple Iran. If Iran stops oil exports, it goes down the tubes that much faster: the world has enough in stock to do with Iran for 4 years.
Situation Israel-Lebanon For us to tell our readers we know what is going on militarily would be to deceive them. There is a lot of sound and fury, threats and counter threats, Israeli fighters and attack helicopters zooming around dropping bombs and loosing off missiles and hitting things, Hezbollah firing rockets in the scores and rarely hitting anything, Iran being obnoxiously stupid in its statements as usual, the Euros going faint and reaching for the smelling salts and ending up by blaming Israel, the world being surprisingly restrained in its criticism of Israel, and the US simply wishing the thing would go away.
But what does it all mean?
We have no clue. And frankly, seeing as your editor is quite severely ADHD (Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder - this is one reason he gets along so well with Americans and why America is his favorite country) he is getting desperately bored with this story after following it day and night for coming on 120 hours.
We honestly have no insight to contribute this morning. Should something actually happen we will, of course, report it and plunge fearlessly into analysis. Right now we suggest any readers missing sleep because they want to stay current on the crisis should get their sleep.
The Rest of The World Is Still There and one of the more intriguing analyses we read the other day somewhere or the other is that $30/bbl of the current oil price of $80/bbl is a fear premium even though some of the fears are overblown. For example, Nigeria's lost production is much less than people have been assuming. We read elsewhere that anticipated demand for 2007 has fallen; Iraq has finally exceeded the oil production that it had at the start of Gulf II; and the Caspian Sea pipeline has been opened. It will soon carry 1 million barrels a day of new production between Baku and Cehyan in Turkey and a second pipeline alongside will be put under construction. Amazingly, US gasoline use has fallen - for a while it looked like the Americans were going to laugh tauntingly and proclaim "do your worst, we won't drive less" even as gasoline hit a country-wide average of $3.
The thing is, there are too many people making money at $80/bbl for anyone to take serious action to bring down the price. And before we get too worked up about the largest oil consumer - the US - suffering from high oil prices, we should keep in mind the US is also the 2nd/3rd oil producer in the world.
0230 GMT July 16, 2006
IsAF Levels Several Apartment Buildings In Hezbollah Beirut and attacks gathering of Hezbollah cadres in Tyre. The Beirut attacks seem not to have caused casualties, but Israel says the Tyre attack killed several Hezbollah officials. Yesterday a Hezbollah meeting in Balbeck was bombed.
Israeli Air Force has launched 2000 sorties so far.
Israel Mobilizes Northern Reserve Division At this point it is unclear if this is a precautionary move, a psychological gambit, or shows intent to protect Israeli ground forays seeking Hezbollah targets in south Lebanon.
Al-Arabiya Says Syria Mobilizing Reserves No details.
Israelis Wondering If Army Slackness Led To Kidnappings Apparently the Gaza kidnapping was due to ineffective leadership, training, and operational skill on the part of the unit concerned. The same issues are being raised in the south Lebanon kidnapping.
BBC, correctly in our view, wonders if the Israelis even knew the C-802 Silkworm anti-ship missiles was in Hezbollah's hands. BBC says the Israeli corvette attacked had her anti-missile systems turned off.
Israel-Lebanon Update 1330 GMT
Hezbollah Attacks Haifa Twice using longer-range missiles. In the first attack, which Hezbollah says targeted an oil-storage facility, 8 civilians were killed - this is likely to change part of our predictions on Israel's exit strategy. The second attack proved harmless, as largely was the case with long-range attacks on two other towns.
Israel Attacks Hezbollah Missile Launchers, Crews in South Lebanon, destroying 20 launchers and presumably killing/injuring their crews. This creates new problems for Hezbollah. Firing short-range missiles requires just a jeep and 2-4 crew, making it a simple matter to setup, fire, and run. But longer range missiles require more vehicles, bigger crews, and more time to set up. This makes them vulnerable to air strikes and counter battery fire.
We predict that the likely heavy casualties among the longer-range crews is going to limit Hezbollah's use of this weapon and it will continue to rely on the short range rockets for as long as it can use the south Lebanon border. These have caused very little damage.
Also, Israel struck and destroyed a Hezbollah missile warehouse.
Corrections & Amplifications Israel attacked Lebanese coastal radars, not the air defense radar network as we had said earlier. Of course, in some cases the two will be synonymous, but generally coastal radars as opposed to the air defense variety watch sea traffic.
Israel says Hezbollah used a Chinese-origin C-802 Silkworm anti-ship missile to hit the Israeli corvette. Even though right now the media focus is on other issues, this is a serious development that is going to have ramifications.
The Hezbollah Missile Problem First, please note that we, along with everyone else, are using "rocket" and "missile" interchangeably. Strictly, a rocket can also be a missile and vice versa, but it is more usual to use "rocket" for the shorter-range, unguided weapons, and "missile" for longer-range, guided weapons. By this definition, all of Hezbollah's inventory is of rockets with ranges from 10 to 100+ kilometers.
The Missile Problem is not something that came up overnight. When Israel withdrew from South Lebanon in 2000 and Hezbollah moved in, the latter began systematically building up warehouses and launch positions for thousands of rockets. Israel chose to ignore the buildup - to do otherwise would have meant going back into South Lebanon and extending the costly occupation. Israel relied on diplomacy to see the rockets did not become a threat; diplomacy has failed.
Israel's Exit Strategy: You Read It Here First
[1400 GMT] Analysis Update Today's Washington Post has Israel continuing its air offensive for several weeks. It notes, as we did, that there is no pressure on Israel to stop.
The Hezbollah attack on Haifa, which tripled Israel's civil casualties from rocket attacks in one blow, is for sure going to change our prediction that Israel is planning on declaring victory in the next couple of days and going home. Our reading was that the Israeli public is not prepared to tolerate an extended, costly war. But if Israeli civilians are getting killed in more than nominal numbers, the government will have the backing it needs to continue the air offensive at least.
Israel's Exit Strategy: You Read It Here First Israel is going to declare victory in the next few days and go home. We infer this from a Jerusalem Post story that the Israeli government believes it has 48-72 hours to hit Hezbollah before the world steps in. In reality, the world is showing absolutely no signs of stepping in, or even of thinking of stepping in. Not has world intervention been particularly effective in the past except as a very lengthy drawn-out process, for example, the Lebanon withdrawal. So right here you see the story the Israeli government is going to give its people: we had to stop because the world was going to intervene.
Lebanon PM Says He Will Assert Control Of South Read the above in conjunction with the news that the Lebanese PM has asked Israel to ceasefire so he can send his army south to take control of the border. Israel's response, as Jerusalem Post tells it, is that Israel thinks it is a good idea and he doesn't need Tel Aviv's permission to do this.
So right here you see another aspect of the exit strategy: Tel Aviv will say it has to ceasefire to give Lebanon a chance to take charge of the border zone.
This will be a comic farce because Lebanon cannot take control - even the US believes it cannot. Hezbollah will respond by unleashing civil war in Lebanon - the reason Beirut hasn't taken this step after 2000.
Happenings On The Diplomatic Front Lebanon, supported by Israel, will ask for a UN force to help police the southern border. Problem: the UN absolutely has no intention of being made into a target by Hezbollah and every crackpot group allied with Syria and Iran. All three actors will want the UN mission to fail.
Only a "robust" NATO force can do the job of protecting the Lebanese Army in the south. If anyone mentions "robust force" in Washington, London, Paris, Bonn, Brussels or wherever, there is going to be a mass exit for the diplomatic bathrooms of NATO, because everyone is going to be afflicted with serious intestinal distress. Absolutely the last thing NATO/US wants is to undertake another robust mission at this time; NATO is barely keeping a grip on itself in Afghanistan, and a south Lebanon deployment is going to make Afghanistan look like a picnic.
Tel Aviv, we are sure, knows this quite well. But these mock plays will give Israel a chance to pull back, justifying the move to its people by saying "we have to allow the world/UN/NATO/US whoever to work this out."
If our reasoning is correct, you won't be seeing the return of the two soldiers anytime soon. But for all of Israel's bluster, the people are absolutely not prepared to take huge risks for the return of the men. Israel is very, very tired, and we can't blame it. In our scenario, Israel will double and redouble its efforts to ensure no more kidnappings take place, and militarily, this is not a difficult problem - as an example, see the US success in Iraq in this regard.
UN Security Council Unanimously Passes Watered-Down DPRK Resolution
China prevailed in its effort to prevent a Chapter 7 resolution from passing. We have said several times there would no Chapter 7 resolution and we doubt anyone is surprised.
Instead, watered down resolution brokered by UN passed. This calls for all member states to avoid doing anything to help DPRK's missile program. This means that no country is supposed to import DPRK missiles/technology. So are the Iranians going to stop doing missile deals with DPRK? we don't think so. So a ship bound for Iran, laden with missiles, leaves DPRK port, is the UN going to stop that ship? Possibly, but at this time we wouldn't count on it happening.
Situation Israel-Lebanon 0230 GMT June 16, 2006
State Of Emergency Declared Israel declares state of emergency in north. This allows the government to force evacuations and closures, requisition resources, and regulate movement of people.
Israel Hits More Lebanese Ports, Destroys Radar System Israel hit three more Lebanese ports and took down the Lebanese military radar system - we cannot make out if civilian air traffic control radars have also been knocked out, though this is a logical step if you are going to knock out military radars.
Israel Hits Hezbollah Neighborhood In Beirut and threatens more attacks if Hezbollah continues firing rockets.
Hezbollah Obviously Doesn't Get the Message because on Saturday it fired 75 rockets at Israel. Again, we don't see why Hezbollah leadership should particularly care if its civilians are being killed in Beirut - more "martyrs", the stronger the movement, as far as Hezbollah is concerned.
Israel Warns Lebanon Not To Fire On Is.AF Aircraft saying it has left the Lebanese Army alone, but will not hesitate to attack it if its aircraft are attacked.
0230 GMT July 15, 2006
Situation 1915 GMT Israeli military says its ship was hit by an anti-ship missile supplied to Hezbollah by Iran, not by a UAV as reported by Israeli press. Israel says 100 Iranians are in Lebanon to help Hezbollah with weapons provided by Teheran.
The bodies of 2 of the 4 missing sailors were recovered from the wreckage itself. The ship regained some measure of steering and the fires were put out on the way to Haifa.
If Iran has given Hezbollah SSMs, this a very serious matter.
Israel Deploys Patriot ABM In Haifa says Jerusalem Post.
Europe Scrambles To Evacuate Nationals From Lebanon We have to congratulate the Greeks, who have offered to evacuate any EU people aside from their own nationals. The US is preparing to start evacuation of its estimated 25,000 nationals in Lebanon, though Orbat.com asks readers to keep in mind many will be dual nationals.
Arab Paper Al Hayat Says Israel Preparing To Attack Syria Reader Marcopetroni forwarded the news item.
Is.AF Bombs Hezbollah Targets demolishing Hezbollah's 9-story HQ in Beirut (Reuters) and the home of Hezbollah's spiritual leader. Hezbollah says he is safe.
Situation Israel-Lebanon 0230 GMT An Israeli warship, which we are led to believe is a Saar 3 missile corvette, was hit by a Hezbollah UAV packed with explosives while on blockade duty off Lebanon. The ship's propulsion system was rendered inoperative and it was towed back, on fire, to the Israeli naval base at Haifa. Four crew are missing.
Is.AF Logs 1000 Air Strikes As nearly as we can tell, this does not include the sorties flown yesterday. We don't know if the sortie total counts air cover and support sorties as may be needed.
Stage Set For All-Out Showdown now that Hezbollah has declared all out war. This is what the media says, anyway. We aren't sure what more Hezbollah can do: it can launch rockets as long as Israel does not move into South Lebanon, but even this has to have become a rather risky business; it may manage to infiltrate a few suicide-bombers, though with Israel on full alert this is also not an option with much likely success.
Syria's Baath Party Backs Hezbollah and we say "Damascus, thank you." It is really helpful when the bad guys fall over themselves to identify with each other. This makes for greater clarity.
Letter On The Crisis From Hale Cullom Looks like the information really necessary to evaluate what might happen next is the extent of the Israeli reserve-call up.
I have thought they would do something on the ground...they have too much egg on their faces after the Northern Command got caught flat-footed, and those rockets that hit Haifa are a real problem. (I was fingering them on my own blog yesterday as Fajr-5's).
They will get world condemnation whatever they do, so might as well be shorn for a sheep as for a lamb. I have been thinking that the Israelis would re-run Operation Litani from 1978 -- rather than the second, larger Lebanon invasion of the 1980's...I evaluate the airstrikes as an attempt to prevent the Hezbollah types from doing much moving of their depots. But I can't imagine they'd wait very long, if they are indeed going to move on the ground.
Somalia Provisional Government Refuses Talks With Islamic Courts planned to take place in Sudan. The IC has sent its delegation anyway, BBC says on the first international flight to leave Mogadishu airport in 11 years.
The provisional government says it has evidence the IC militia has foreign militants from several countries.
UN says it is ready to lift arms embargo on Somalia: this is neccessary for deployment of peacekeepers and to start building up the provisional government's forces. Right now militiamen from Puntland, the president's home province, provide what little force the provisional government commands.
CIA Ex-Operative Valerie Plame Sues US Vice President for betraying her trust and for outing her for revenge against her husband. What Ms. Plame does to get further publicity is, frankly, her business. This is America, and the rules of the game are that any means to get publicity are justified. But we'd like to remind Ms. Plame of two things.
One, she was not outed by any American other than the traitor Aldritch Ames. If the Russians did not know her identity before the traitor did his stuff, after he did his stuff her cover was for sure blown and she was doing permanent desk duty job when her name was leaked to the press. At first she was very careful to make sure she was not photographed by the press - old habits, one supposes. But then she decided, with her husband, to do a kiss and tell in a major American magazine, so essentially she blew the remaining shreds of her cover.
Two, as a CIA employee she has no right to demand that other people live up to her standards of trust. All intelligence operatives are disposable commodities and she was one. We have no idea what the courts are going to do - or even if it possible to sue the Vice President - because Americans courts can get get quite weird. They have enormous power and don't hesitate to use it, and then American juries are also famous for their quirks. But the notion that an undercover agent can sue because the Vice President betrayed her trust should, a priori, elicit a vast number of sniggers.
But - as we said - this is America. Good luck to Ms. Plame and she certainly is making maximum use of her photogenic cute blonde looks. This last comment may be taken purely as sour grapes on your editor's part because he is neither cute, nor photogenic, nor blonde (that "e" is deliberate"), nor good looking. His trust has been betrayed several times by several people and government agencies, but since he is over 60 and under 5 feet 6 inches, 190 pounds, half deaf, bald, bad teeth, stutters badly, suffers from premature Alzheimer's, is unable to keep his food and the front of his clothes strangers to each other, wears -12 specs, owns jackets that were last new when President John F. Kennedy was confronting Nikiti K. over Berlin, and buys his shoes from the store that advertises "all shoes under $5", frankly, my dear, no one gives a darn. Sexism is alive and well in America.
2030 GMT July 14, 2006
As Of 1230 GMT There Are No Dramatic Developments Israel has likely done as much as it can on the spot, further operations will roll only after preparation - in some cases requiring weeks - is complete.
Israel attacked Beirut IAP again to close a repaired runway; the last remaining aircraft belonging to the national carrier managed to fly out to Amman, Jordon, before the attacks.
A wide range of Hezbollah targets was attacked inside and outside South Beirut, including one attack on the organization's HQ. Casualties are so low - 3 killed in South Beirut - that either Israel is making symbolic attacks or the targets have been completely evacuated. Israel also attacked the base of another Syria-sponsored extremist group that supports Hezbollah.
Lebanese Consider Sending Troops To South This is a move Hezbollah violently opposes as it would be the beginning of the end for the organization's power - which had already taken a huge hit when Syrian forces were made to withdraw from Lebanon last year. Lebanon has to date not undertaken extension of its control to the southern border for fear of invoking civil war, something Lebanon suffered for two decades and from which it still had to recover before the recent crisis. Orbat.com believes any move south of the Lebanese Army will for sure reignite the civil war.
Lebanese Chaos To Hezbollah's Advantage? Washington Post notes, correctly, that US policy to get Syria out of Lebanon was working. A moderate, nationalist government with full control of its territory is not to Hezbollah's interest as non-state groups thrive when state power is weak or non-existent. The current Israeli offensive gravely weakens the Lebanese government and Hezbollah gains.
On the other hand, Israel's offensive is increasing pressure on Hezbollah from non-Shia Lebanese, who are asking why they are being made to pay the price for a non-state organization's policies.
Nonetheless, Orbat.com suggests that we must be clear that Hezbollah's Shia supporters, who are its constituency, at this time completely back the organization. Whether they will continue to do so as hardship in Lebanon increases is something no one can predict at this time, but the kind of pressure Israel is bringing tends to polarize people: many who might normally be lukewarm about Hezbollah or even oppose it might feel forced by the new circumstances to back it regardless of cost.
Israel Strikes South Beirut blowing a bridge in the suburb which is a Hezbollah stronghold. Israel also attacked a fuel storage facility and power plant in Beirut. Earlier, a 4-ship flight of AH-64s attacked the fuel tanks at Beirut IAP, setting them ablaze. Israel says it attacked 100 Hezbollah targets on Wednesday, no news yet about the number of strikes yesterday.
Jerusalem Post says that last night the Israeli cabinet approved wider action against Lebanon in the wake of Hezbollah's firing two rockets at Haifa.
Hezbollah Fired 100+ Rockets At Israel Yesterday but has caused very few casualties relative to the scale of the attacks. For one thing, Israelis are hunkered down in shelters or have evacuated; for another, well, this is Hezbollah, a terrorist organization, not a military one.
Double Bluster From Teheran First, Teheran says it will abandon the NPT if it is pressured on its N-program. This is Teheran's answer to the decision by US, UK, PRC, Russia, and France to refer the matter back to the UN Security Council.
Then Teheran warns Israel not to attack Syria because it will be an attack against the whole Islamic world. And the whole Islamic world will do what to save the dictator of Syria, who is responsible for this new, completely unnecessary mess?
Teheran and Damascus have made a bad miscalculation by okaying Hezbollah's attack on Israel; they should be working to get the Israeli soldiers released and not permitting escalation by Hezbollah; Teheran should be watching what it says.
This Is What Passes For Brains Among The Taliban They attacked a garrison of coalition and Afghan troops in Helmand Province. They lost 7 killed in the attack, then 12 more when NATO fighters bombed their retreat - all of the dead were in a single car.
Hasn't anyone in the Taliban read anything about how guerrilla war is supposed to be conducted? Our bad: of course the Taliban can't read and the Pakistani ISI that is behind the new Taliban could care less how many die in these stupid, pointless attacks.
0230 GMT July 13, 2006
[1800 GMT] Hezbollah Rockets 19 Israeli Settlements, Attacks Haifa 90 Israeli civilians have been wounded and some killed in several Hezbollah rocket attacks on 19 Israeli border settlements.
Two rockets landed in Haifa without injuring anyone. Hezbollah denies it launched the rockets, so obviously the CIA must have done the deed.
[1800 GMT] Israel Cuts Damascus-Lebanon Road, Tourists Fleeing Lebanon Israel has cut this road which became the main exit point for tourists trapped in Lebanon by the Israeli air/sea blockade. But now Israel has also cut the road - no details.
[1800 GMT] US Navy Auxiliary Ordered Out From Haifa The ship was on a joint exercise and the US Navy ordered the ship to leave.
[1800 GMT] Israeli Air Force Neutralizes Lebanese AF by attacking runways at the latter's two main bases.
[1800 GMT] Israel Says Hezbollah Trying To Transfer Captives To Iran and confirms they are alive. We don't think this is the best idea Hezbollah has had; as for the Iranians, it is hard to predict how they will behave considering their protégé is under sustained attack.
[1800 GMT] Operation To Last "Months" If Needed says Israel.
[1130 GMT] Israel Blockades Lebanon Is.AF strikes cut runways at Beirut's international airport at 3 places, and Israeli Navy gunboats are turning away ships. Israel says Hezbollah uses the airport and ports to transfer men, weapons, and money; presumably what Israel is saying is that these are legitimate targets.
Also attacked was the Hezbollah TV station in Beirut - an attack helicopter fired missiles at it - but the station is still on the air.
20 bridges have been hit, not all have been downed.
[1130 GMT] Israel Warns South Beirut Residents To Leave Hezbollah has its Lebanese HQ in the area and the warning is presumed to be in advance of strikes.
Hezbollah says if Israel attacks South Beirut it will target Haifa, presumably with rockets of which the terrorist group has an estimated inventory of 13,000.
The Lebanese pound fell to the maximum allowed for one day's trading and the stock market plunged.
[1130 GMT] Hezbollah Counter-Escalates by firing 60 rockets at an Israeli settlement south of the Lebanon border, killing at least one civilian and wounding 20+.
Israel retaliated with an air strike against a Hezbollah base 15-km into Lebanon, saying the strike killed 30 Hezbollah fighters.
Israeli settlements
[1130 GMT] Israeli Reoccupation Of South Lebanon Likely Judging from Israeli statements that South Lebanon will not be allowed to becomes a base against Israel, it appears likely Israel is planning a reoccupation of the region.
Israeli critics have been charging for some time that since 2000 Tel Aviv has ignored the growing buildup of Hezbollah positions in the area.
The only thing that could change this prospect is if the Lebanese army takes control of the region and disarms Hezbollah, something the army is incapable of doing.
[1130 GMT] Israel Warns Hezbollah Leaders They are Targets no matter where they are.
[1130 GMT] Lebanon Government Refuses Responsibility The prime minister says the government had no foreknowledge of the attack and refused to take responsibility.
Unfortunately for Lebanon, that statement provides Israel with further legitimacy in its operations. An admission that a government is not in control of armed groups on its territory and will do nothing to neutralize them permits a country at effect of the armed groups to strike back in legitimate self-defense.
Israel Attacks Southern Lebanon striking "hundreds" of targets (Jerusalem Post). Earlier, the information with the media was that 8 Hezbollah camps and 5 bridges after Lebanon-based Hezbollah guerillas killed 8 Israeli soldiers and captured two. Israel says the attack is an act of war, not of terrorism, and has mobilized a reserve division, promising to turn the Lebanese clock back 20 years if neccessary.
Haartez of Israel says that among other measures being considered is a complete air and sea blockade of Lebanon, including shutting down of civil air traffic.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah has been mortaring Israeli territory in what is a further escalation.
Israel is preparing a large-scale operation in South Lebanon, but has categorically said Hezbollah will be attacked regardless of where it is located.
Hezbollah says the operation was planned months ago - this contradicts at least one report that the terrorist group struck to avenge an Israeli attack, earlier today in Gaza, seeking to kill the leader of the Hamas armed wing. He survived - without injury, says Hamas, Israel says he was wounded.
At around 0600 GMT Israeli soldiers patrolling on Israel's side of the border under a rocket barrage. Hezbollah guerillas attacked a border post under cover of the barrage. One Hummer blew up on a mine which killed 3 soldiers; two other were wounded and captured. When troops came to the aid of the Hummer, a tank ran over a mine, killing the 4-man crew. The eighth soldier died when he ran to the help of the tank crew.
Hezbollah says it will trade the captured soldiers for thousands of prisoners; Israel says they will be no deal - but appears to contradict itself because it has also said there will be no direct talks with Hezbollah.
The Israeli Air Force has attacked about 30 targets in southern Lebanon, including several bridges, with the purpose of making it harder for Hezbollah to take its prisoners out of the area. We doubt this tactic has any efficacy in southern Lebanon, though in Gaza, where the same tactic is being used, it could prove useful.
Reuters reports that some Lebanese are elated at the raid and capture of Israeli soldiers, and are preparing for Israeli retaliation. Reuters has someone saying the Lebanese people are tougher than the Palestinians and even the Americans, and they do not fear Israeli attacks.
Jerusalem Post says that Israel is drawing up plans to attack Lebanese power stations to punish the government for allowing Hezbollah to operate. Of course, the Lebanese government is still far too weak to do anything about the terrorist group, which has several thousand fighters, major arsenals, and unlimited money from Iran. At the same time, significant fractions of the Lebanese government and people support Hezbollah. The organization actually has two ministers in the cabinet and MPs in parliament.
An Israeli analyst has said Hezbollah is probably figuring Israel will back off and negotiate. This would boost Hezbollah's prestige throughout the Arab world. Conversely, however, if things turn bad for the Lebanese, the people will start blaming Hezbollah.
It seems to us that it has now become impossible for Israel to negotiate under any conditions. There is the hostage crisis in Gaza, and with the new crisis, any negotiations will simply invite fresh kidnappings.
It is important to appreciate there is a qualitative difference between the Gaza and Lebanon situations. The Palestinians have some moral justification for being at war with Israel; Hezbollah does not. It is an outside group, claiming to speak on behalf of the Palestinians, that was formed under Iranian auspices to spread terror through the region. Israel has vacated Lebanon - six years have gone by and things have been quiet till today. It is true that Israel still occupies the Shaba Farms area. But for Hezbollah to say it is at war with Israel over the Farms is disingenuous. Left to themselves, the Lebanese are quite capable of sorting out the problem with the Israelis.
Moreover, Hezbollah is in defiance of a UN resolution from 2004 calling on it to disarm. It has zero legitimacy. Lebanon also rejected the resolution - another example of collusion with Hezbollah.
Lebanon Recalls Ambassador To US - but not, as one might think, as a protest. The ambassador appeared to endorse Hezbollah's demand for a prisoner exchange, and his being recalled is Lebanon's way of repudiating his very serious and very inappropriate comments. This is an example of what we mean when we say Lebanon cannot eject Hezbollah but at the same time there is much support for the organization.
Israel Continues Gaza Offensive 23 or 24 Palestinians were killed yesterday including 9 of a family in an air raid intended to kill a Hamas leader - we assume its the same raid refered to above.
Iran's UN Gambit Fails as Teheran is again referred back to the UN Security Council for failing to respond to questions about its N-program. Iran has been stalling, saying it will not answer before August 22. These tactics are simply a test of US will. Meanwhile, Russia and China are still opposed to harsh action on Iran, but by refusing to enter negotiations, Teheran has undercut efforts by both nations to water down upcoming UN resolutions.
We have no information on how PRC is reacting, but Moscow is rather ticked off with Iran. The US has just announced it will cooperate with Russia on civilian N-programs - the aim is to give Russia added incentives to jettison its N-cooperation with Iran.
US Again Displays Weakness Over Iran The Iraq mess has long ceased to be an albatross around America's neck: it is now a giant millstone that is crippling America everywhere. This became evident, once again, yesterday when the US ambassador to Iraq charged Iran with inciting violence in Iraq and said that if Iran does not stop the US will have to consider various measures to stop the flow of Iranian men and weapons into Iraq.
What is the US doing to make Iran stop? Nothing. And why should the US be considering measures? It should be acting to interdict the border, and to punish Iran for its actions. The US has effectively sealed the Syria border, why not the Iraq border? Because of the same old problem: not enough troops.
And why should Iran stop? Teheran knows the sooner Iraq stabilizes, the sooner its death warrant is signed by Washington. Iran's sole hope is to keep the US so tied down in Iraq that Washington cannot take against Iran. It is not as if Iran is having everything its own way: US/UK have managed to stir up trouble on every Iranian border. But all these have been indirect actions, and Iran has succeeded in countervailing the US from enforcing direct actions.
Letter from
Paul Danish On South Lebanon
0230 GMT July 11, 2006
[2130 GMT] Israel Attacks Southern Lebanon striking 8 Hezbollah camps and 5 bridges after Lebanon-based Hezbollah guerillas killed 8 Israeli soldiers and captured two. Israel says the attack is an act of war, not of terrorism, and has mobilized a reserve division, promising to turn the Lebanese clock back 20 years if neccessary.
Hezbollah says the operation was planned months ago - this contradicts at least one report that the terrorist group struck to avenge an Israeli attack, earlier today in Gaza, seeking to kill the leader of the Hamas armed wing. He survived - without injury, says Hamas, Israel says he was wounded.
At around 0600 GMT Israeli soldiers patrolling on Israel's side of the border under a rocket barrage. Hezbollah guerillas attacked a border post under cover of the barrage. One Hummer blew up on a mine which killed 3 soldiers; two other were wounded and captured. When troops came to the aid of the Hummer, a tank ran over a mine, killing the 4-man crew. The eighth soldier died when he ran to the help of the tank crew.
Hezbollah says it will trade the captured soldiers for thousands of prisoners; Israel says they will be no deal - but appears to contradict itself because it has also said there will be no direct talks with Hezbollah.
The Israeli Air Force has attacked about 30 targets in southern Lebanon, including several bridges, with the purpose of making it harder for Hezbollah to take its prisoners out of the area. We doubt this tactic has any efficacy in southern Lebanon, though in Gaza, where the same tactic is being used, it could prove useful.
Reuters reports that some Lebanese are elated at the raid and capture of Israeli soldiers, and are preparing for Israeli retaliation. Reuters has someone saying the Lebanese people are tougher than the Palestinians and even the Americans, and they do not fear Israeli attacks.
Jerusalem Post says that Israel is drawing up plans to attack Lebanese power stations to punish the government for allowing Hezbollah to operate. Of course, the Lebanese government is still far too weak to do anything about the terrorist group, which has several thousand fighters, major arsenals, and unlimited money from Iran. At the same time, significant fractions of the Lebanese government and people support Hezbollah.
An Israeli analyst has said Hezbollah is probably figuring Israel will back off and negotiate. This would boost Hezbollah's prestige throughout the Arab world. Conversely, however, if things turn bad for the Lebanese, the people will start blaming Hezbollah.
It seems to us that it has now become impossible for Israel to negotiate under any conditions. There is the hostage crisis in Gaza, and with the new crisis, any negotiations will simply invite fresh kidnappings.
It is important to appreciate there is a qualitative difference between the Gaza and Lebanon situations. The Palestinians have some moral justification for being at war with Israel; Hezbollah does not. It is an outside group, claiming to speak on behalf of the Palestinians, that was formed under Iranian auspices to spread terror through the region. Israel has vacated Lebanon - six years have gone by and things have been quiet till today. It is true that Israel still occupies the Shaba Farms area. But for Hezbollah to say it is at war with Israel over the Farms is disingenuous. Left to themselves, the Lebanese are quite capable of sorting out the problem themselves.
[2130 GMT] US Again Displays Weakness Over Iran The Iraq mess has long ceased to be an albatross around America's neck: it is now a giant millstone that is crippling America everywhere. This became evident, once again, yesterday when the US ambassador to Iraq charged Iran with inciting violence in Iraq and said that if Iran does not stop the US will have to consider various measures to stop the flow of Iranian men and weapons into Iraq.
What is the US doing to make Iran stop? Nothing. And why should the US be considering measures? It should be acting to interdict the border, and to punish Iran for its actions. The US has effectively sealed the Syria border, why not the Iraq border? Because of the same old problem: not enough troops.
And why should Iran stop? Teheran knows the sooner Iraq stabilizes, the sooner its death warrant is signed by Washington. Iran's sole hope is to keep the US so tied down in Iraq that Washington cannot take against Iran. It is not as if Iran is having everything its own way: US/UK have managed to stir up trouble on every Iranian border. But all these have been indirect actions, and Iran has succeeded in countervailing the US from enforcing direct actions.
Israel Makes Lightning Strike In Central Gaza Yes folks, the invincible Israeli Army has struck again in the blitzkrieg fashion for which it is renown. It has advanced an astonishing distance into Central Gaza: an amazing some hundred meters according to the media. We are sure the bad guys are trembling with fear.
Which reminds us of a retort someone made when someone wrote an article - was it in the 1970s? - saying New York City's Lexington Avenue subway line was being constructed at a snail's pace. Turns out snails move faster than the subway construction pace.
We Cannot Independent Confirm CNN Exists CNN says Al Qaeda has shown footage of the mutilated bodies of the two US soldiers who were captured last month. CNN carefully says it has not been able to establish the tape's authenticity. Which brought us to an important realization: we have no proof whatsoever that CNN actually exists.
Incidentally, AQ says it killed the soldiers because US troops had raped and killed the Iraqi woman - that killing is all that Washington Post seems to be able to talk about these days, incidentally. We find it a bit peculiar that AQ says the killing was a retaliation because it made no such claim at the time and for several days after the rape/murder story had broken.
Of course, AQ did not kill the soldiers. They were too valuable to kill, and no video was made of the killing. The soldiers died of their wounds. So what the brave lions of AQ did was to mutilate the bodies of dead men. It takes a fantastic amount of courage for jackals to do that. And of course it was all done in the name of the Koran.
News You Absolutely Cannot Do Without - if, like the editor, you have no life whatsoever:
The flight crew of a special Air India flight taking the Prime Minister to Germany stole 29 bottles of scotch whiskey from the galley in April. Security officials went into a panic when they saw the broken galley cabinet, thinking the plane might have been sabotaged. The missing whiskey was found in the crew's baggage: the captain and a flight attendant each had 5 bottles. The captain said he had purchased the whiskey. He has been charged with smuggling, as under Indian customs regulations only two bottles of whiskey can be brought into the country. No one is asking why the PM's flight had so much of whiskey - reports are of "cases" which means there were at least 36 bottles on board. We are not informed what other alcohol was aboard.
The Italian World Cup soccer player who was head-butted by the French captain in the World Cup final says he did call the Frenchman a bad name, but did not call him a terrorist. I am not a cultured person, he says, and I don't even know what an Islamic terrorist is. We did not know you had to be cultured to know what is an Islamic terrorist.
Tom Cruise and Katie Holmes' baby has not been seen.
Pravda of Russia reports on 20 ways to become a sex goddess. Your editor does not want to be skeptical, but he doubts the method will work in his case. http://english.pravda.ru/society/sex/05-07-2006/82944-sex_goddess-0
South Africa will persuade DPRK to stop missile tests. Since we know you aren't going to believe this a is a true news story, kindly visit http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-07/11/content_4819335.htm
0230 GMT July 11, 2006
Chechan Terrorist Basayev Cavorts With The Virgins after Russian security forces blew him and 11 others in his convoy using an explosives laden truck. The truck may have been remote controlled.
Russia's most wanted was a man without scruple and who deserved no mercy because he gave none. His best-known crime is the Belsan school siege in which 330+ died, mostly children. For this alone he deserved to die. We regret only that the Russians could not take him alive.
Naturally Basayev's death will invite comparisons with the US's failure to kill Bin Laden. Russia's job was a lot easier because Chechnya is part of Russia - Osama is not holed up in Wyoming or some place similar - and because he was an active field commander. Osama spends his time hiding.
UK To Send Another 900 Troops To Afghanistan OK: we have to give credit where it's due, and the UK MOD, which has earned its fair share of criticism from us, has to be given credit for its quick response to field commanders' request for more troops. They will not arrive overnight - months is the timeframe being mentioned.
Which still leaves unanswered the question of which bright spark thought up the notion of sending a 4000+ brigade of troops to Afghanistan with just one infantry battalion. Yes, yes, we know all about the high tech and all that rot. There are jobs for which high tech works beautifully - Gulf I was the perfect example. There are jobs for which high tech can substitute for some old-fashioned "boots on the ground". But to think high tech makes maneuver units like infantry and armor obsolete - Rummy Rumster's theme of special forces finding targets for airpower and other remote systems - is to think singularly inane thoughts. When it comes to ill thought out faddism in any field of human endevor, its difficult to top today's Americans. But frankly, we didn't think the practical Brits were that stupid.
Japan Willing Top Postpone UN Vote Till PRC-DPRK Talks End A DPRK delegation is in Beijing to discuss various matters and undoubtedly the missile tests will come up. Japan was pushing for a UN Security Chapter 7 vote yesterday, but now says it is willing to wait till the talks end, to give pRC a chance to work things out.
Orbat.com comment: what makes the PRC think it can bring DPRK to heel with diplomacy? Is there something in the water that makes PRC superior at diplomacy than anyone else?
Meanwhile, just to show PRC fans we are not singling out PRC for ridicule, here is what Japan's Asahi Shimbun says in its E-edition about US representative Christopher Hill: "After the meeting (with Japan), Hill told reporters the only choices left for North Korea were to be isolated or to take part in international society. Hill said it was important for Pyongyang to return to the six-party talks and to implement the provisions of a joint declaration agreed to by those six nations." A more mindless statement is near impossible to conceive. How many more decades must pass before US realizes that DPRK does not, and never has, wanted to take part in international society?
Now, of course, our readers will point out the US realizes this quite well which is why it has been the leader - till the missile launches - in pushing for tough approaches to DPRK. Our point is that when the going got tough, the US got going - for any place but DPRK. A lot of tough talk and no action is not something the US has been known for - till now.
Heavy Fighting In Mogadishu as Islamic Courts try and eliminate the last warlord strongpoint. BBC says 60 have been killed in two days fighting and that Islamic Courts is using artillery. Can't expect the BBC to ask and try and answer the question as to where the artillery has come from. BBC is very much part of western media.
In fairness, it is not doing well in the race to the bottom in standards - the US mainstream media are the masters of the universe here, and the organization does still retain traces of its former glory - witness its very extensive global coverage.
Meanwhile, BBC says Ethiopian soldiers and 70 vehicles have crossed into Somalia.
Seems to us the CIA - and the US - still have a chance to get the matter of the Islamic Courts right, now that the Somalis realize the Islamic Courts are not the saviors they were previously assumed to be. We understand the last thing the US wants is to undertake another open-ended exercise in nation-building - it didn't want to do this in Somalia Round One and there was no Iraq war at that time. But what is the alternative to supporting the transactional government? The warlords option has failed miserably.
0230 GMT July 10, 2006
Israeli Air Force Launches Several Strikes With Indifferent Results Not a successful day for the IsAF: despite several attacks against Hamas militants, it did not manage to kill any. Several were wounded but escaped death. One example was 5 militants in an explosives laden car that were attacked. They were injured but managed to get out of the car before it blew up. In battle you have good days and you have bad days. That's the way it works even for the best forces.
Meanwhile, Israel is preparing a fresh ground attack. It says it plans to avoid getting bogged down in Gaza - which is very densely populated - and will keep striking and withdrawing.
Hamas managed to get off a few Kassam rockets including one that wounded four Israelis.
Jerusalem Post says President Abbas has sent an envoy to talk to the Hamas leadership in Damascus, presumably about getting the kidnapped soldier. Won't save Hamas, though: Israel is not going to live with a Hamas government. And why should it, when the latter keeps attacking Israel every day.
Japan Still refusing To Back Down On DPRK Sanctions Japan failed to get a vote going in the UN Security Council on Saturday, aimed at imposing Chapter 7 sanctions against DPRK. Now it is aiming for a Monday vote.
Japan says that just because some countries oppose the vote - Russia and PRC - is no reason not to vote when the majority want sanctions.
Orbat.com, of course, is going "Gulp, what happened to the famous Japanese knack for consensus? Japan is sounding more and more like - dare we say it - the US." The Japanese Foreign Minister has even gone as far as to say that Tokyo has the right to make a pre-emptive strike against DPRK despite the Japanese constitution, which forbids offensive action.
It's being said that Japan has managed to persuade Russia to abstain from a vote and is hoping that PRC will not want to be the sole holdout with veto power. Clever strategy, we must admit; let's see if it works.
Meanwhile, the US is working - unbelievable - to resolve the issue diplomatically. Washington has simply lost any will for hard action, and the Iraq mess-up is the direct cause. And if talks are supposed to resolve the missile issue with DPRK, we may expect that the next step will be suggestions to talk with Iran. If this isn't defeat, we don't know what is. The whole thing is pathetic.
Of course, the US is in great company, joined as it is by the gutless wonders Number 2 and 3, Moscow and Beijing. They want DPRK to agree to more self-restraint. Our message to GWs Number 2 and 3: people, get a life, will you? How many more agreements does DPRK have to break before you realize everyone is at a dead end with DPRK - and with Iran.
42 Sunnis Massacred in Baghdad Shia gunmen, allegedly belonging to Al-Sadr's militia, roamed an area in Baghdad for 8 hours looking for Sunnis and killing them on the spot. The victims are said to include a woman and her children: she was given 10 seconds to leave her home, but the gunmen killed the family right then and there.
A Sunni politician says the dead including a Sunni legislator. He says despite all attempts to contact the Ministries of the Interior and Defense, no Iraqi forces came to the scene, and US forces arrived too late.
Note to western media and the brave Iraqi prime minister: but please, lets not talk about this horrible incident in a capital that is supposed to be locked down by 70,000 security forces. Lets continue headlining the rape/murder case involving US soldiers. It's so much more fun to beat up on the US military than to talk about the real issues in Iraq today, isn't it?
Indian Agni-III Test Fails The second stage of the 3500-km missile did not separate. Press Trust of India reports officials as saying that the test article, first in the series, had design shortcomings. The launch was to have taken place in November 2004 but has been delayed for technical and diplomatic reasons.
A Pakistani spokesperson said India informed Islamabad of the launch plans. This is usual these days under the various confidence building measures both nations have signed.
A Pakistani analyst says the test will spur Pakistan to speed up its own plans for a 3000-km missile. Presently the longest range missile tested by Pakistan is for 2000-km. This kind of "analysis" we can do without. It is completely meaningless. Pakistan has long said it is working on longer-range missiles; it will fire a longer-range one when it is ready and there is no question of speeding up or slowing down. Nonetheless, we haven't been able to figure out why Pakistan wants a 3000-km missile when its 2000-km version can fairly much attack all important Indian targets. India needs the longer range Agni to countervail China. We cannot imagine US/EU will be thrilled and delighted with a 3000-km Pakistani missile.
0230 GMT July 9, 2006
Israel Advances In One Part of Gaza, Withdraws In Another The withdrawal is by the Golani Brigade in the north. Jerusalem Post says the brigade is regrouping for fresh action.
The advance is on Gaza City; at last report Israeli tanks were 500 meters outside.
The Israeli air Force has been unusually active, launching severals trikes.
Militants fired 17 Kassam rockets into Israel, hitting at least 4 settlements/villages and causing casualties.
About 50 Palestinians have been killed so far; Israel has lost one soldier to friendly fire.
Fatah gunmen joined in the fighting against the Israeli incursion.
Japan Insists On DPRK Sanctions In UN Security Council despite Russia/PRC saying they will not vote for sanctions, or even for a tough resolution.
It is highly unusual for Japan to take a diplomatic hard line on any issue and the confrontationist approach by Tokyo needs more analysis than we can give it. The Japanese are madder than heck about the DPRK missile launches' more than that, there is a new assertiveness from Tokyo. China and Russia had better watch out: neither of them needs a rearmed Japan on its doorstep.
CNN says speculation is Japan is aiming for a Chapter 7 resolution ordering DPRK to stop missile development and that in negotiations it will withdraw its insistence on sanctions in return for the resolution. Chapter 7 can be enforced by military means.
In our humble opinion, even though we say the US should attack DPRK without further ado - and its ROK's problem if it doesn't agree - any UN resolution requiring DPRK to stop its missile program is illegal and a perversion of the UN's aims. As a sovereign nation DPRK has the right to act as it sees best in its security objectives. Correspondingly, other countries have the right to deal with DPRK as they see best - but the UN should not have anything to do with this unless DPRK actually attacks another country.
CNN-TV Is Completely Useless And Pathetic Your editor was trapped at the hospital for routine tests and got the opportunity to actually watch CNN-TV - he does not watch TV, period. CNN went on and on and on about the US deployment of an Aegis missile destroyer to Japan, repeatedly making it sound like this was a response to the current crisis.
The CNN website, however, notes the deployment was planned well before the missile tests - in short, it has nothing to do with the tests.
New Head of Al-Qaeda Iraq Is In An Egyptian Jail for many years says an Egyptian lawyer who met him a few days ago. The lawyer himself was once an associate of AQ's Number 2, Zawahiri.
The lawyer says also that the man named by Osama as the new AQ head for Iraq does not exist.
He says possibly both US and Osama are undertaking disinformation for their own purposes, but he does not spell out the purposes.
Which brings us to a point we have repeatedly raised: while it seems certain there was a terrorist called Zarqawi operating in Iraq, was he really the head of AQ in Iraq and anything more than a petty criminal?
0230 GMT July 8, 2006
Israel Denies It Will Release Prisoners The Palestine president said Israel has told Cairo it will release certain categories of prisoners after its kidnapped soldier is released. These include those who have served more than 20 years in jail, sick inmates, and women and children.
Israel denies it has made any deal and says it will not negotiate with Hamas. Need we make the obvious point that the Egyptian government is not Hamas?
About 40 Palestinians have been killed since the current incursion began.
Palestinians managed to get off more rockets aimed at Sedrot, the Israeli settlement that has borne the brunt of the rocket attacks.
Just How Pathetic Can Washington Get? It is now trying to get PRC to impose sanctions against DPRK. PRC and Russia have both said they will not agree to tough action against DPRK, as more talk is needed. Needed by whom? To some degree the Beijing/Moscow stance arises from an automatic need to oppose the US no matter how grave the situation. Also, US's imperatives are not Beijing/Moscow's imperatives. But to a large degree, in our opinion, it arises out of sheer gutlessness.
US Military Sticks A Large Finger In Al-Sadr's Eye A joint US-Iraqi operation resulted in the capture of a leading insurgent associated with Al-Sadr's Mahadi Army. 40 insurgents were killed or wounded in the fighting in Sadr City, Baghdad; no coalition casualties.
Interestingly, this gent is such bad news that even Sadr at one point had to sanction him, apparently to no effect. That history did not stop Mahadi militia from saying civilians were killed and the US is trying to undermine the Iraqi Prime Minister's reconciliation initiative.
The quantity of lies - and stupid ones - that Iraqis seem capable of spewing is quite extraordinary. The Iraqi forces answer to their government, not to the US. A joint raid against such a sensitive target - Al-Sadr is a leading ally of the Prime Minister - could only have been conducted with the explicit order of the prime minister. Now that al-Malki is prime minister, he has no interest in being bossed around by al-Sadr and he has publicly said he will target militias.
As for civilians being killed, we have no reason to doubt this happened. But who is a civilian when Mahadi militiamen live with their families and fight from their homes? And how is it that Iraqis insist every attack against insurgents killed only civilians? Everyone in Iraq is innocent, the way the Iraqis tell it. Must be the rotten old CIA dressing up as insurgents and attacking US and Iraqi forces.
Score One For the Bush Person Reuters says according to a French intel report, fewer foreign fighters are going to Iraq as the conflict is being nationalized.
Geez Louise, would it kill the French to mention that nationalization has nothing to do with it? The Iraqis are upset with people of Zarqawi's ilk because they were trying to push their version of Islam on the locals. The Iraqis welcome with open arms those foreigners who arrive to fight the Americans.
Reduction in foreign fighters is because they are being killed off at a rather astonishing rate. And why are they being killed off? Because of the Americans, even if Iraqi forces are now increasing their share of fighting.
Everyone is ready to blame Mr. Bush when things go wrong - including us. How about giving the man some credit when things go right?
Islamic Courts: Pray Or Die An IC sheikh says Muslims who don't pray 5 times a day should be killed. What astonishes us about the IC is they are making absolutely no effort to appear moderate while they consolidate their power. This is tactically a terrible move.
Meanwhile, a warlord who has been holding out on the outskirts of Mogadishu says he has been reinforced by his clan and is prepared to battle any IC effort to take his positions.
Also meanwhile, Islamic Courts says the militiamen who killed a "cinema" owner and a young woman when a protest against the militia's shutdown of World Cup viewing turned violent have been arrested and dealt with under Sharia.
Lets see how this spins out. After the militia told the "cinema" to close - it was residential room with a TV - locals started to protest. Miltia fired in the air. Protestors did not disperse and some began to throw stones. Militia killed the two persons. They're going to argue they were acting under order and their lives were in danger. Wonder what position Sharia has on such situations?
EU Observers Says Mexican Election Fair EU had 80 observers throughout the country and says they observed no irregularities.
Now what are the leftists going to do with their claim the election was fraudulent? Stupid us! Obviously the EU observers were actually CIA agents.
You'd think with the CIA plotting and planning in all 260 countries and territories around the world, as well as undersea and in outerspace, they'd be very short of people and welcome people like your editor who has offered repeatedly to do their 3rd confirmation for ground orbats at a tiny fraction of what they are paying. Nope. Your editor has just again been heavily ignored.
We should explain: in the intel biz, the more confirmations from different sources you can afford the better. So someone with little money would have to be content with one source. Those with modest resources - the developed world bar the US - work with two. CIA likes 3 and even 4 confirmations. Your editor even offered to do their second confirmation. Not even a polite rejection. We think the CIA gatekeeper - the person who is officially responsible for keeping the Director's toilet paper dispensers full but also directs all outside correspondence to the right office - has been turning your editor's proposals into toilet paper and pocketing the money thus saved. We have this from a very high up source at Langley. Its no secret we have a stoolie inside the CIA, the grey feathered kind, who has a nest on the 5th floor. That's pretty high, no?
0230 GMT July 7, 2006
Washington, Please Give Us More Talk, Its So Soothing Jerusalem Posts says Japan's Daily Sankai newspaper reports that following analysis of the failed DPRK missile launch, US/Japan have concluded impact point was near Hawaii. The conclusion underscores a belief that DPRK launched to protest US sanctions.
Now let's run this by - very slowly, for the benefit of the giant minds in Washington. The US has sanctions on DPRK for good reasons: it is a rogue state, it is a sworn enemy of the US, and it has a genocidal regime that by its failed policies may have caused the deaths of a quarter of its people. No need to mention it is also one of the most repressive regimes on earth.
So to protest the sanctions, DPRK decides to show US it can target the US with nuclear weapons. We have a situation here where DPRK is saying: "Give us aid, give us money, or we'll kill a few million of your people."
Now let's say this even more slowly: Washington, any government that is using this kind of logic is not just certifiable, it is a threat to the US far beyond what Saddam, Damascus, and Teheran posed/pose.
In short, there is no telling what the DPRK will do. The above mentioned triple-threats at least acted/act logically within the parameters of their national interest. DPRK seems to be on a one-way suicide trip and determined to take a few tens of millions other people with it.
Washington, you have a mad dog on the loose. What does one do to mad dogs, however regretfully? One shoots them. Not because one likes killing animals, but because rabies is almost always fatal and no one can be sure how a mad dog will behave.
So, Washington, what are you doing to protect the American people from this threat? Talking. And Talking. And Talking. Hey, you all going to share your N-shelter space with the rest of us?
Some Fighting In Gaza Perhaps 20 Palestinians have been killed as the Israelis attack Jenin. One Israeli soldier has died; he may be a friendly fire casualty. A Most Wanted terrorist escaped after a shootout in which at least half-a-dozen of his entourage were wounded and captured. Some reports you will read say the terrorist was killed, but the latest from Jerusalem Post is he managed to escape.
UK MOD Says It will Consider More Troops for Afghanistan. That's good. Our suggestion: MOD not consider too long. There's nothing to consider. At least one battalion more is needed, and as normally a brigade has 3 battalions, a third would seem neccessary.
Mexican Election recount still gives victory to conservative candidate, albeit by a narrower margin. Leftist mayor of Mexico City refuses to accept result, and there is talk of taking to the streets.
Way to go, Mr. Mayor. You don't like the results, so lets unleash the mobs. We were wondering why so many of these leftists seem to function like street thugs, but then it occurred to us that in the days when rightist thugs were in vogue in Latin America they made sure election victories were overwhelmingly for them - when they bothered to have elections, that is.
0230 GMT July 6, 2006
Pakistan Not To Reinforce Border Pakistan said last week it was sending 10,000 more troops to help seal the Afghan-Pakistan border, bringing the total to 90,000. Yesterday Pakistan said the additional troops were not needed.
We have been avoiding calling a manure shovel a manure shovel because we don't want to be seen as needlessly picking on Pakistan. Unfortunately, manure production in the Pakistan government on this issue has reached such proportions that if we don't help by at least calling a manure shovel a manure shovel, the government will drown in manure.
First: There are not 80,000 troops guarding the border. There are no more than 10,000 troops - if that - guarding the border. The rest are mainly troops that are permanently deployed in Baluchistan and the NWFP on internal security duties. The police forces in these two provinces are minimal, and the paramilitary Frontier Corps spends most of time on policing. Because of unrest in Baluchistan, military and paramilitary reinforcements have been sent; ditto NWFP. These reinforcements are not patrolling any borders.
Two: Pakistan could deploy 100,000 troops on the border and still not manage to seal it.
Three: Pakistan has no interest in sealing the border. Asking Islamabad to oblige is asking Pakistan to act against its own strategic interest. If anyone thinks the Pakistanis are illiterate idiots who can be made to act against the interests of their own country, they are living in la-la land. The Pakistanis are brilliant at saying "yes sir, no sir, 3 bags full sir", giving you a manly, vice-like handshake while looking you straight in the eye, and then going out and doing exactly what they want. Before someone asks why is the US so stupid as to believe the Pakistanis, please be assured the US is not stupid and it trusts the Pakistanis about as much as you would trust a passel of very hungry foxes in your chicken farm. The US does not feel it act against Pakistan more than it is already doing, at this time. Its the lesser of two evils.
What we find interesting is that Pakistan has now become so bold, it is openly defying the US to the point of reversing, within 100 hours, a symbolic increase in the number of troops on border duty. Pakistan is calculating the US needs Pakistani support on Iran so badly that Pakistan can make fools of the US and then laugh in its face.
And why does the US need Pakistan so badly on Iran? Because it has messed up in Iraq, and because it doesn't have the resources to unilaterally act against Iran. Another victory for the Rumsfeld Doctrine.
DPRK Missile "Crisis" Here's a headline from BBC that tells readers all they need to know: "The US secretary of state says six-party talks should be the place to resolve the crisis over N Korea's missiles."
When the US proposes more talks, then you can assume Washington has really, really, really run out of options and ideas.
Also of interest: two of the six parties, PRC and Russia, are already at work diluting whatever resolution UN may pass.
And may we, most politely, ask what moral right does the UN or US or anyone else to pass resolutions on what is DPRK's right, testing missiles? There is no morality of any sort involved. DPRK is doing what is in its interest. The US should be doing what is in its interest, which is clobbering the heck out of DPRK, no quarter given.
Gaza We refuse to report on the non-news. When the Israelis actually act to some practical purpose, we'll be back with the news.
Somali Soccer Watchers Killed Our good buddies the Islamic Courts militia told a "cinema" in central Somalia that was showing World Cup soccer matches to shut down: un-Islamic and all that. The "cinema" was a room with a TV. When the viewers protested, militia fired shots in the air. When that didn't work, they shot dead the "cinema" owner and a young girl.
Note to Union of the Islamic Courts: do tell, once again, about how you would really, really, really like to be best buddies with the Americans.
By the way, if Washington Post is right - and sometimes it is - the CIA got involved with the warlords because it was hunting terrorists. It had no interest in anything else. We are very staunch defenders of the CIA. But we have to admit this time it failed. The CIA is overextended even more the military and the failure is one consequence. 'Nuf said.
Mexico Recount Gives Leftist Slight Lead with 70% of the recount done.
Incidentally, we were wrong when we said 70 million votes were cast. That is the size of the electorate. 40 million voted.
Iraq President wants Reconsideration Of US Troop Immunity Our response is simple: In your dreams, boy. And considering what your militias are doing to the Sunnis - and dissenters - each day, your concern at atrocities committed by US troops is, shall we politely say, a trifle hypocritical?
US Troops Kill 35 Taliban at a compound, including several leaders responsible for multiple attacks. No American deaths.
Meanwhile, UK's 3 Para lost another soldier yesterday. That brings the UK total to six for the current offensive. The British commander is saying there are going to be more casualties, but the job has to be done. Good for you.
US Trade Deficit Readers may recall we have mentioned some time back that the weakening dollars would boost exports and reduce the enormous US trade deficit which - we feel - is crucially weakening America.
Well, Business week tells us that since the US has been steadily raising rates, money has continued to flow to the US in a flood, and the US dollar is going back up. The deficit will continue.
Geneva And Islamic Fundamentalists We have been arguing that Geneva does not apply to persons fighting without uniform from within civilian populations. An Israeli law expert has a different take. Please read http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1150885926370&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
0230 GMT July 5, 2006
The United States: Land Of Hot Air Today DPRK test-fired its long-range missile. The test failed after 42 seconds. But it was staged, in defiance of US warnings not to stage it. We assume DPRK knew something we didn't: that the US response was going to be more hot air.
A US official says the test was "provocative" but posed no threat to the US. another says the US response will be coordinated with that of other allies.
So then why threaten DPRK in the first place, if the US didn't intend to follow through on its dire warnings? So what is Washington going to do now that is going to hurt a regime that is hurt-proof, because it looks after its own and the people can go starve for all it cares?
Your editor has a simple question to ask of the buffoons and bean-eaters who run this country. Who gave you the right to humiliate this great nation but issuing gratuitous threats that you apparently had no intention of following up on? Some of you were elected to office. Some of you were appointed to office. Some of you are career bureaucrats. Please tell us where it it says in your contracts that you are permitted to make the country look like a pathetic joke?
Your failure to follow through on made threats can only have negative consequences for the country. Teheran has surely made note of what you have not done. Great job, fellas. We don't have to worry about our enemies doing us in. You're there to do the job right, aren't you now?
In case anyone in charge in Washington missed the point: the test has been anticipated for two weeks now. It took place on July 4, US Independence Day. That is about a big slap in the face DPRK can administer, short of Child of Swans personally planting his fat boot on the large tushies of Washingtoons.
The Battle Of The Mid-East Beans Eaters Continues Hamas had told Israel to cease its invasion or face the gravest consequences, deadline 6 AM Israel time yesterday. Big surprise: nothing happened. But that's Hamas; to paraphrase an American phrase from the late 19th Century, they have mouths a meter wide and a centimeter deep. No one expects anything from them except bluster.
In the other corner you have the deadly Israelis, you know, the ones who will not rest till they have killed the bad guys? Their soldier was not released and they made a violent attack against the Palestine Interior Ministry - after making sure it was empty. BBC talks about the Israel maintaining "steady pressure" on Palestine militants. Who was to know the Israelis would deploy their ultimate weapon that no one can resist? It has to do with overdosing on beans and then letting nature take its course.
Yes, Hamas killers are definitely suffering from Israeli pressure: thanks the borders being closed we are sure there must be a terrific shortage of clothespins.
Rail Tunnel Project Through Swiss Alps To Begin Twin tunnels, about 64 km each, will be capable of handling 400 trains a day when complete in 2016. Aside from linking the economies of south and north Europe via high-speed rail, the tunnels will reduce the escalating flow of motor vehicle traffic that is polluting the Alps.
Times London says the project is being compared to the building of the Great Pyramids of Egypt. Fellas, do us all a favor and put a sock in it, OK? This is a great engineering project. But its being done technology that is 5 millennia more advanced than that available to the pyramid builders, and $6-billion it is a pygmy project in terms of GNP absorbed. Euroland has over $12-trillion GNP. To compare to the pyramids, you'd probably have to devote $1-trillion a year for 20 years - that's just a guess, we haven't worked out the figures.
A project that would compare to the pyramids is one we might see in this century: high-speed rail tunnels between Euroland and the Americas. The proposal we once heard about involved trains running at 10,000 kilometers-an-hour in near vacuum, making the Atlantic crossing in 30 minutes.
$6-billion is pocket change: Boston's Big dig, 161 lane miles of roads, about half in tunnels, cost $14-billion. The Big Dig site http://www.masspike.com/bigdig/background/index.html modestly and realistically compares the project to the Chunnel project. No comparison to the Great Pyramids.
0230 GMT July 4, 2006
Total Mexico Election Recount Likely as the ruling party candidate wins with less than 1% margin from over 70-million votes cast. His opponent is the flamboyant leftist mayor of Mexico City.
Israel Begins Northern Gaza Operation after rejecting kidnappers' demands. Israel makes clear that if its soldier is harmed, it will go after everyone in Hamas, in Palestine or in Syria.
Meanwhile, Hamas seems to be suffering from acute verbal dysfunction. A stream of nonsensical statements is emanating without pause from its leaders, none of which has any relation to reality. Any number of threats are being issued, and Hamas cannot make good on even one.
Also meanwhile, three killers of a kidnapped Israeli student whose body was found just before the invasion surrender to Israeli troops after they were surrounded. The Israelis say he was murdered an hour after being kidnapped without any effort to negotiate.
Child Of Swans Loses It Again DPRK is now threatening the US with nuclear annihilation. Advice to Fatface: get a bomb first. Then leave DPRK before the US levels the country.
Radical Bolivian Leader Fails To Win Mandate to rewrite the constiution. In assembly elections, President Evo Morales's party won a bare majority, not the 2/3rds he needed. [Thanks to reader Mike Thompson for the news.]
We're a bit surprised he failed, considering Indians represent 80% of the population and he is supposed to be wildly popular with them, himself being of indigenous extraction.
Letter From Reader Walter E. Wallis Dear Mr. President: If it is against the law to have revealed the secrets of the surveillance program, and of the earlier releases, it is inappropriate for the administration to complain about it. Either prosecute or shut up. If someone is entrusted with a sack of money but leaves it on a park bench, whoever takes it is a thief, but he who did not guard his trust is just as guilty. If you have the law, and yet allow it to be broken without penalty like it was immigration law, than the fault lies with you. If you don't have the law, then demand it. Either way, stop whining.
0230 GMT July 3, 2006
Yesterday was a No-News Day. We want to indict Xinhua of China as the laziest major news website: it does not update items for days at a time. Additionally, its first page is full of gossip and fashion items. If we really wanted to know what Jennifer Anniston says about her marriage to Brad Pitt, we have no need to go to Xinhua. Times London is not far behind in failure to update its pages. Tass of Russia is also a laggard, but from what we understand it has serious money limitations, which Xinhua and Times London don't.
Iraq Issues Its Own Wanted List and it is with some ambiguity we note that Saddam's wife and daughter Raghad are on it. On the one hand, we appreciated that the US avoided taking the war to the women of Saddam's family. They had no power when he ruled, and as such are not responsible for what he did.
On the other hand, they have been freely spending money looted from the people of Iraq. Raghad, in particular, has been spending tens of millions of dollars on her father's lawyers. Both mother and daughter have to be held responsible for benefiting from this money, to which they have no right.
While we have seen no allegations, it naturally comes to mind to ask if the Saddam women have been giving money to persons who have used it to support terror against the Iraqi state. At the least the women need to be questioned on this point.
Hamas Leaders In Syria Increase Own Security even as they insist they have nothing to do with the kidnapping of the Israeli soldier, says Jerusalem Post. They have abandoned their homes and their cell phones; are avoiding meeting together; and are passing messages only through trusted people.
Note to Hamas of Syria: Israel uses signal intercept, of course, but above all it uses human intelligence - agents and informers. No way you can protect yourself against that lot.
India Refuses Israeli Embassy Additional Handgun Permits says Press Trust of India. The Israelis had asked for 20 permits additional to the 48 they already have. India has asked Israel to remove the 48 Glock handguns currently authorized on grounds that India is responsible for the security of the Israeli staff. The real reason seems to be that Israel is the only embassy allowed to have handguns, and the Indians don't want other countries using this as a precedent to demand their own permits.
Letter From Mike Brown I agree with you that America does not have the stomach for the fight it needs to wage against terror. I do not subscribe to the "we can't lower ourselves to their level" that is heard from various sources. You cannot negotiate with a rabid dog, mass murder, or a terrorist. You must kill them!
My point is that Bush did not overstep his authority. My point is that the Five Supremes threw out 200 years of legal and political precedents to make the ruling that they made. They used rulings from international courts, ignored existing legislation, and in general caved in to international pressure to bestow U.S. citizenship rights on those detainees. Those detainees are not POWs, or citizens of this country and should not be afforded those rights and privileges.
This ruling is just another in a long series of judges inventing law from the bench. It's not suppose to happen that way, hence the frustration that I believe will eventually lead to drastic changes in the political system in this country. Again, I cannot predict what form that will come in, or when, but I firmly believe it is coming.
Another Animal Story In India two groups staging a demonstration against the local administration borrowed a donkey and hung a sign mocking officials about its neck. The officials complained to the police they had been insulted. Said donkey was produced in court as part of the complaint.
The judge remanded the donkey to police custody, which flabbergasted the police: modus is to let animals involved in crimes go with their owners. But the donkey's owners could not be found.
The police complained their prisoner was uncooperative and found fault with everything ranging from food to accommodations. Luckily the owner was located and the donkey released. The police filed a case of animal cruelty against the two demonstrating groups. The groups counter-complained, accusing the police of mistreating the animal. The owner says the donkey was bad tempered before, and is now even worse-tempered.
Our sympathies are entirely with the police and the donkey.
0230 GMT July 2, 2006
Gaza Invasion: The Big Yawn The Israelis are busy attacking terrorist training facilities - when they are empty; they blew up the Hamas Prime Minister's office - when no one was in occupation; they exchanged fire with militants seeking to stop the advance in the Khan Yunis area - but there were no casualties on either side - you get the idea. Sound and fury signifying nothing: this pyrotechnic show will not impress the Israeli people; it certainly is not impressing the Palestinians. We're giving diplomacy a chance, the Israelis say, before we really show Hamas etc. what's coming to them.
Okay, Tel Aviv. If you say so. But we aren't impressed either. We understand the idea is to eliminate the Hamas government but not hurt the Palestinians, but we're starting to have doubts as to if you all really know what you are doing, or if you're doin' a lot of huffin' and puffin' because you're out of ideas.
British Troops in Afghanistan Angry Again First it was the lack of infantry that was getting local British commanders angry. Now its the lack of air support. They want more Apaches and Chinooks; just the other day a British patrol was attacked from three sides by Taliban; neither was air support available, nor could Chinooks be spared to bring in reinforcements because everything was tied up in supporting another firefight.
We suppose we should be cheered by this news: it isn't just the Pentagon that is incompetent, the British MOD is just as stupid and deaf to what the troops are saying. But really we draw no comfort in saying that the Americans are not alone in the race to the bottom when it comes to the civilians giving what the military needs to do the job.
We might add the biggest laugh is the German MOD, which can't find one battalion group for overseas duty despite a military of 250,000 soldiers and $30+ billion budget. Pathetic. But boy, those German soldiers sure look good on parade - there is something terribly photogenic about German troops, and there is nothing to beat the postures the combat troops of the German Army strike in photographs. Very fierce. They just can't fight their way out of a paper bag, but what the heck, lets just let the stupid Americans fight this war and we can all sit around and complain and feel outraged at how horrible and uninformed and mean and cruel the Americans are.
The Godfather Gives The Kiss of Death Bin Laden - purportedly - calls on the people of Somalia to support the Islamic Courts and calls the interim President a traitor.
So, are there still any takers for the Islamic Courts' initiative to reach out to the US - we are not terrorists, they say. Note to Islamic Courts: the Americans have a saying. If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it is a duck. Swear as much as you like you are swans or whatever, but you are ducks.
The Godfather Gives Iraqi Sunnis The Kiss of Death Too He says that as Sunnis they are right to kill Shias. We don't think the Shias were under any illusion that when Bin Laden and his cohorts talk good Muslims they are included, nor do they need any excuse to kill Sunnis. But Bin Laden, that master of diplomacy, has just conferred additional legitimacy on Shias who want to kill Sunnis. Since Sunnis constitute just 20% of Iraq's population and Shias constitute 60%, this is such a masterful move on OBL's part.
The Washington Post and New York Times seem to waste no time in attacking the US government for what they consider the government's idiocies. May we now - solely in the interests of fair play - have some learned articles as to OBL's stupidities?
A Rare - For Us - Congratulation to President Musharraf The Pakistani president refused to commute the death sentences on 4 Pakistani men convicted of raping a Christian girl. They were all hanged.
BBC notes - and we second - that by and large Christians, who are a tiny minority in theocratic Pakistan, are allow to live peacefully in Pakistan as long as they don't make waves. There are many unfortunate incidents of intolerance every year, and reader marcopetroni is active in regularly sending us details. Nonetheless, considering how intolerant Pakistanis are of Hindus and Sikhs, it is a point in the country's favor that it has a live and let live policy toward its Christians, at least.
In contrast to Pakistan's tough stand, Mideast Arab states have a dismal and unprincipled record in enforcing the law when crimes against non-Muslim women are committed.
We don't want readers to start showering Pakistan with rose petals and so on, women are treated horribly no matter what their religion. Nonetheless, praise must be given when it is due.
Incidentally, we can't resist this dig at the good old USA. Pakistan has upwards of 160 million people. According to Jang of Pakistan, 6500 women are in jail - that's for the whole country. President Musharraf is considering freeing 2000 who have been languishing as under-trials for extended periods. According to US Department of Justice statistics for 2005, US held 106,000 women in jail; the US population was about 300 million. Something to think about, no?
0230 GMT July 1, 2006
Don't Bogart That Joint, My Friend Hamas continues its erratic, irrational, and puffed-up behavior. Now the kidnappers of the Israeli soldier demand that 1000 Palestinians be released. But they don't say they will release him in exchange. A Hamas minister says that his government will never give in to force. But at the same time Hamas is admitting it cannot get the kidnappers to release the soldier.
Note to Hamas government: is it so hard to understand the Israelis don't want to negotiate anything with you? They want you in custody, dead, or just plain gone. The kidnapped soldier has nothing to do with this, the Israeli invasion to overthrow you would have come anyway, once you started lobbing rockets and making it clear you weren't going to stop.
Note to kidnappers: The Israelis have, on occasion, exchanged prisoners for hostages. But this time they have changed the script: they are taking as many hostages of their own as possible. Further, the Israelis are not going to stop coming after you even if you unconditionally release the hostage. Hand him over, you're dead. Kill him you're dead. Is this so hard to understand?
Meanwhile, from the safety of Syria Hezbollah is breathing fire and defiance. Note to Hezbollah: can it. You are becoming the biggest bores of the Middle East. You have a reprieve because the US government messed up in Iraq. But you and your sub-IQ patron President Assad are next on the Must Eliminate list. Our advice: head back to Iran while you can.
Letter From Reader Mike Brown He reminds us it wasn't President Bush who intended to use the US criminal justice system to handle terrorists. True, and we trust we have not said that was his intent. Clearly it wasn't, but clearly he overreached and his Supreme Court has smacked him every which way. Our point is that what does he do with the Gitmo detainees now? We would object very strenuously to seeing them in the American criminal justice system. The ones who are minor - they should be set free. The ones who are not minor - eliminate them. If America doesn't have the stomach for it, let them go, and when they attack America again, lets hope someone has the guts to put them down for good.