Western Sahara

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Reliability Index 5 (Very Poor)

Rebel name:

Saharawi Arab

Democratic Republic

GDP ~ $600-million

Population: 450,000 including 100,000 refugees.

Morocco has built a defensive sand berm down the middle of the country with spurs to the coast to protect its positions in the western part of the territory. This eliminates the rebels ability to stay lightning long-distance raids.

Background

Recognized by about 80 countries (but not USA, Russia), member of AU. Claimed and occupied by Morocco. Rebels (POLSARIO) supported by Algeria. Under a UN brokered ceasefire, a referendum to decide the country’s future was to be held, but as yet no date has been agreed on. In 2008 the UN representative said independence is not a realistic option, after which talks between Morocco and the rebels have stalled.

A complication is that in 2003 oil was struck off the Western Sahara coast. In 2005 Government of Western Sahara opened 12 blocks for exploration. Simultaneously, Morocco, which had permitted two companies to explore, renewed the license of one company.

The first Western Sahara license fee round is a modest $100,000 for 200,000 square kilometers, but last phase exploration contracts will be sold for $200/square-kilometer.

This is aside from royalties. While we cannot estimate income that may accrue, oil revenue could transform the government and the POLISARO forces. In part because of the oil discoveries, Western Sahara has been threatening to break the ceasefire unless Morocco withdraws. The rebels have succeeded in getting all except two oil companies licensed by Morocco to pull out. No oil is being produced at this time.

The territory is called the Saharwi Arab Democratic Republic by the rebels.

Country List

Forward to Western Sahara p. 2