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0230 GMT December 31, 2011

Blockade versus Embargo

• Reader Scott wrote in to say Editor was mistaken that an embargo is an act of war We had an informative back-and-forth exchange, the gist of which is that an embargo only says the US decides not to buy or sell from Iran. Iran is perfectly free to buy and sell from/to anyone else. Take, for example, the US embargo against Cuba. Scott notes that while we refuse to do business, other nations are free to operate as they see best. An embargo, then, is not a blockade. For Iran to threaten to close Hormuz is an act of thuggery.
• Let us first admit Scott is entirely correct: an embargo is not a blockade; the latter is an act of war, the former is not. Next let us face the uncomfortable reality that if all the US/Allies are planning to embargo Iranian oil, then our leaders are again pulling a fast one. Let’s look at the mechanics of an embargo.
• At such-and-time, it becomes illegal for the US to buy or sell Iran oil. Well, for starters, the US does not buy or sell Iranian oil right now, so what is the big deal? The embargo, of course, will be joint with many other countries. And it will mean nothing. Oil is fungible. A tanker loads oil, unloads it somewhere, and the oil goes where it will. Saying Western tankers are not to carry Iran oil will cause big yawns. Tankers will be reflagged overnight. The oil will be “bought” by China. The tanker will put to see. Traders will buy the China-bound crude on the sea and send it where they want. The traders have not busted the embargo: they bought oil from China.
• Is the US planning to follow tankers, board them, and test where the oil has come from? Tankers can be boarded under UN authority. Ships suspected of carrying missile components from DPRK are routinely tracked and boarded, and if necessary diverted. [UN Resolution 1874, for you lawyer types.] But we will never get a UN resolution because China will veto it, likely also Russia.
• Further, all that will happen is that Iranian oil will head for China, and Saudi oil that would have gone to China will go to Germany or wherever.
• At this point the US Government might respond: We know this. But if Iran can sell oil directly only to non-embargoing countries, it will have to sell at a discount because China, India, or whoever depends on Iran oil will have the upper hand and be able to negotiate discounts. Also, Iran will have to offer traders discounts to offset all the inconvenience of rerouting oil, getting dirty looks from the US and so on. So Iran will lose money and this will put pressure on it.
• Our response is: Editor being from Iowa is a simple person, and definitely lacks the sophistication to appreciate such an argument. So what is the US government’s plan to stop Iran from pumping more oil to make up for discounts?
• What it comes down to is an embargo without a blockade is worthless in the case of a vital commodity like oil. We have to give a mea culpa to Scott because without explaining this point, we jumped to the assumption the US was going to do a blockade, and of course there is no sign the US is going to do that. So here we are again, with the “Talk Talk You Worry Me To Death” syndrome.

What exactly are we trying to pressure Iran to do?

• Why, to terminate its N-weapons program, of course Great. So our strategy is to squeeze Iran till it tamely stops its N-weapons program. If there is anyone in the Administration who seriously thinks this strategy has the slightest chance of success, Editor did them a favor and called St. Elizabeth’s hospital in DC, and yes, Room 221 is indeed vacant, because they need to be in a straitjacket in the looney-bin where they can’t harm anyone. Or themselves.
• Why on earth would Iran give up the one chance it has to stop the US from Saddaming it? [In the American tradition of inventing new verbs, Editor gives you his creation.]
• At which point the inner-inner-inner circle in Washington goes “Chuckle, chuckle, chuckle, OF COURSE we don’t expect Iran to give up its N-weapons, but we have to APPEAR to have tried everything before we whack them.
• Here we beg to differ This “international consensus” the US sees necessary to build before attacking Iran will never be built. Outside of the anti-Shia Arab states and the West, no other countries will agree that whacking Iran is justified unless Iran does an act of war. It does not matter if the US has some scrap of paper giving it the authority to attack. It had pieces of paper in 2001 Afghanistan and 2003 Iraq. And you know what? The whole rest of the world hates the US for what it did.
• “Better to be feared than loved” Machiavelli might have said. US should remember that. Old Machi also said if you have to do something bad, do it all at once and people will forget what happened. Don’t draw it out like Chinese torture which is what the US is doing right now. The longer the US takes to do the deed, the worse it will work out.

So are we saying “Darn the torpedoes, full speed ahead”?

• No. A little bit of subtlety does not hurt. Help Israel to attack the Iranian N-program while all the time saying: “No, don’t do that”. Plausible deniability. The countries who normally would be expected to retaliate against Israel for an attack on an Arab nation will silently cheer. In any case, the Iranians are not Arabs, as they never tire of telling you. Teheran has been busy trying to subvert several anti-Israel countries, as far as they are concerned, what Israel does is payback.
• Iran will surely retaliate against Hormuz if Israel attacks. Then we have every legitimate right to attack.
• At which point the inner-inner-inner circle in Washington goes “Chuckle, chuckle, chuckle, OF COURSE that’s what we’re already doing, dimwit.”
• So you are. But we still say “Just do it now.” Why? It’s a matter of aesthetics and disrespect.

Aesthetics and disrespect?

• Aesthetics Editor is just plain tired of seeing one Unshaven One after another disrespecting US military power on TV. Unshaven Ones need to be shown off, as the Brits so nicely put it.
• Respect The point of power is not to have to use it. The longer these twerps go on disrespecting American military power, the more likely we’re going to have to go all-out against someone else as well. Remember Somalia and Bin Laden. Smack them now, and good, and for the next twenty years people will think long and hard before taking on the US.
• Everyone has their limit Editor’s was reached when the Iranian filmed CVN-74 transiting Hormuz and wildly boasting they knew how to keep track of US warships, implying the US Navy can be attacked at Iran’s will.
• Okay, minor point of international law In peacetime, you cannot stop someone from tailing a US warship. Soviets used to do it all the time. And all the time, as the US warships got into open water, they shook the tail. The video might even have been taken from one of the Iranian islands using a telephoto lens. You can put ten torpedoes or cruise missiles into an American carrier and you won’t even slow it down unless you make a very lucky shot and cripple a propeller shaft. [Normal Polmar once pointed out to the Editor there is one scenario under which you could hurt a US carrier: if a cruise happens to get through an open elevator and into the hanger, there’s going to be a big problem. Carrier won’t sink or slow down, but it won’t be doing any fighting for a while.] These babies were designed to slug it out with the Soviets. They can take a lot of damage. And no guess what happens to Iran if it does hit a US carrier. As the man says “It’s crying time again”. That’s if in wartime they can even see a carrier. 100% assurance: they won’t. The carriers will not enter the Gulf till its been sanitized
• As far as Editor is concerned the Iranians are free to disrespect American politicians. Heck, even Americans disrespect American politicians. But disrespect a US capital ship? No sir. The Unshaven Ones have to pay for this. They have to be defeated, captured, put on trial, and sentenced to – a barber chair. That’ll make America’s enemies think twice.

0230 GMT December 30, 2011

• China, again This is the second time in the week we’re commenting on China. The occasion is the Chinese have tested a train that hits 500-kmph. That’s the whole train, not just the engine, and it isn’t Maglev either.
• So of late the Chinese high-speed rail program has run into setbacks. Prices are very high, rendering many of the lines economic busts, and then there was an accident which killed 40-people.
• In the various blogs we skim, there is considerable schadenfreude, an unseemly glee in the misfortunes of the Chinese.
• So, as we explained in the last post, Editor is no fan of China. Truthfully, Editor’s entire 21 years (this time around) in America has been a slow-mo humiliation as the Chinese have pulled ahead and we’ve fallen behind. Editor is always happy to let the Chinese have a reverse raspberry or two. [A reverse raspberry is not produced by the lips, in case you wondered.] If Editor was to wake up tomorrow, and be told that China has vanished into an alternate universe, Editor would be highly pleased with life. Editor has no time for Chinese geopolitics, Chinese economics, Chinese culture, Chinese history or anything Chinese.
• But we’d like to ask Americans something. What have WE done lately in transportation engineering that we should feel superior to China? A very small example. Extending the Washington Metro to Dulles IAP is an 8-year project, and there’s no assurance when it will be finished. America is so broke that we cannot afford an underground station at Dulles: it will cost $100-million more than an above ground station. To any European, an above ground station is déclassé, not to say about it running the lines of Saarinen’s famous design. And how is the extension to be paid for? By driving up the tolls on the Dulles Toll Road, used by commuters, to insane levels. The Dulles Toll Road drivers may well wonder what they have done to deserve the huge increase in tolls because the Metro has nothing to do with them.
• But forget the extension. We can’t even keep Metro running in the capital of the Free World. The entire system, which honestly was the best in the world when it was built in the 1980s to early 2000s, is falling apart. The escalators would be an international joke on the Borat scale, if the world actually was interested in what happens in America today. Luckily, the world could care less. Trains break down every single day. You cannot count of Metro to get you where you need to go without providing so much reserve time that if your meeting is urgent, you cannot risk it. The interior of the cars reminds of Dickesian England, they are so shabby. As for dirt and lack of cleanliness, you want clean, please go play in a pig sty. And please don’t even think of getting on a train in rush hour in the Washington DC part of the system, unless you’ve brought your pepper spray, the trains are so crowded.
• Every now and then we will have a genius citizen writing in to the newspapers: “What has the extension got to do with me? Let those who use it pay for it.” Right. So next time your street needs paving, are you going to pay for it? On this basis, why should the residents of Maryland state and Montgomery County, Maryland pay for the schools in Editor’s city, Takoma Park? And why should the citizens of Montgomery County pay for the ambulance service that zips them to the hospital? You wanna get your life saved by the ambulance, YOU pay for it. And why should the good people of Dewitt, Iowa (Editor’s spiritual home) pay for the US Navy? Let those who directly benefit pay for the Navy.
• The concept that underpins a civilized society, that we all pool in for services even if we don’t directly benefit from some, is becoming as strange as the notion of sharing his food with homeless rays in Delhi would seem to your dog.
• Back to the Chinese Their trains will fill up as their people get richer. They’ll have a train network for the 21^st Century. What will we have that we can be proud of? That our backsides have grown by another average 5-cm?
• When people are losing out in a competition, they should be working harder to compete. Not standing around making fun of the guy who is winning and insisting it isn’t important that we compete. Aesop had a phrase for it: Sour Grapes. That is a very familiar American condition today.
• Oil Pipelines bypassing Hormuz There are two pipelines of consequence. One is the Saudi Yanbu pipeline, 5.1-million bbl/day theoretical and 5-million bbl/day tested. Then there is the Oman pipeline, 2.5-million bbl/day, specifically built to bypass Hormuz. About 17-million-bbl/day go through Hormuz.
• The West and Gulf oil producers have been aware of this problem for some time, which is why new pipelines are under construction, including one through Yemen and one from Ras Tunura to where exactly we haven’t been able to figure out.
• Oddly, Google doesn’t respond well when you type in “Pipelines bypassing Hormuz” and any one of dozens of variants, which is why our ignorance of the current pipeline situation is abysmal.
• Sure, we could find out, but we’re racing to finish up Concise World Armies 2012 and even half-an-hour is hard to spare.This is what we’ve found so far – and it sure would be great, readers, if someone would look into this.
• (a) The Iraq-Saudi pipeline to the Red Seas (1.7-million-bbl/day) has been sitting them. Unless someone has been quietly working on it, it’s unusable. Now Baghdad and Tehran are all kissy faces, but Baghdad will suffer badly if Hormuz is closed. After the 1008 crisis, it would seem logical someone is working on it, but is there any evidence?
• (b) The Yanbu pipeline can be jumped to 8-million-bbl/day with much work. You have to mix in a chemical that reduces the turbulence inside the pipe generated by oil flow, this adds a dollar or two to a barrel. And you have to get in bigger pumps. Then Yanbu line can do 8-million-bbl/day. Again, it would seem logical someone is working on this, but in the brief time we’ve researched, we don’t see anything.
• Put all this together, and you get 12.5-million-bbl/day. That’s still 5-million short, but the world can live with that shortage for a few months.
• Now, we know the Iranians have threatened to attack the Oman pipeline if necessary. Fair enough. Oman will simply go to the UN to complain of aggression; UN will take 6-hours to authorize a US-led force against Iran, and whatever else happens, its bye-bye Mullah Regime.
• We also suspect little has been done about alternate routes because Iran cannot keep Hormuz closed for more than a few weeks. But if someone was asking us, we’d have to say: look, the alternates cost a few billion dollars at most. Sure Hormuz will reopen within weeks. But isn’t it a good idea to have insurance?
• Now, we’re not going to get into the mechanics of keeping Hormuz open, or of reopening it should it be shut. But we’d like to give a word of advice to Debka.com.
• Please stop getting excited every time there’s a couple of three US carriers in the region. That is NO indicator of imminent hostilities. If Debka had understood this, it could have saved itself from becoming a laughing stock because of its repeated insistence that an attack on Iran was imminent.
• What you should look for, people, is a movement of USAF fighter wings to the Gulf region. If those wings start flying in, THEN you expect war.

0230 GMT December 29, 2011

• Iran has every legal right to close Hormuz if an oil embargo is imposed. Oil is Iran’s economic lifeblood, stopping Iran from exporting oil is tantamount to economic strangulation, which is cause for war, which is cause for retaliation as possible, QED, Ergo, Ipso Facto, A Priori, Sui Generis,  and Per Diem, closing Hormuz is permissible.
• After getting that straight, we also need to get straight that closing Hormuz is equally an act of war. So we have a right to whack Iran for closing Hormuz.
• Our personal request to President Obama: Can you kindly justify your existence by doing something useful, i.e., whacking Iran? Thank you. You will get Editor’s vote (virtual vote as Editor can’t vote, but then, as they say, it’s the thought that counts).
• US SF Troops in Uganda, Central African Republic, and South Sudan as preparations are underway to terminate the head of the Lord’s Resistance Army.
• There is no limit to the stupidity of some US commentators. In October Glen Beck defended the LRA, accusing the US President of targeting Christians. The LRA is Christian in the same way that a pool-full of starved piranhas are God’s creatures. Technically piranhas are indeed God’s creature, but you sure wouldn’t want to get into the pool with them/
• The atrocities of the LRA are too grisly to relate here, so let’s confine ourselves to one LRA ritual. When it needs fresh recruits, it attacks a village. Children are made to kill their siblings and their parents. If they refuse, they are deemed unsuitable and killed. Those who comply are forcibly conscripted. Any attempt to escape means death.
• That Glen wants to defend this organization shows he is well overdue on being retired to the Funny Farm.
• Quite oddly, Glen doesn’t seem to have anything to say about the very sad situation of Iraqi Christians, who have been the victims of ethnic cleansing after the US arrived. Americans and their government are so messed up in the head that we consider it noble to prevent the killing of Sunnis, but don’t give a hang about our own co-religionists.
• Oh wait: isn’t there a 1992 Supreme Court ruling that says the larger a class of religionists, the less protection they are entitled to? So since this is a Christian majority country by far, we suppose the rights of Iraqi Sunnis are much greater than those of Iraqi Christians.
• Sorry if this doesn’t make sense, people. But it’s your Supreme Court that made this ruling. And you’re the ones who don’t say anything about the persecution of Christians in Muslim nations. Or is Editor being unforgivably anti-multicultural when he makes such statements? Americans are so enlightened, so fair, so kind, so generous, that they weep about other religions. Their own doesn’t count. It’s still not clear to Editor why so many Americans hate themselves and their country so much. If they feel America is such a cancer on the face of the earth, and they need to make restitution, can they please migrate to Saudi Arabia or kill themselves quietly? Why are the rest of us being tortured?
• Let’s hear it for over-engineering editor is a big opponent of over-engineering in weapons systems, because a weapon is no good if it’s too expensive to afford or too expensive to lose. But there is something to be said for over-engineering in fields like space exploration. Cases in point: the Voyager probes, now about to enter true interstellar-space, as they prepare to leave the  heliosphere, and of course the Mars rovers.
• Launched in 1977, Voyager I and 2 were supposed to image Jupiter and Saturn, but they went on to image Neptune, Uranus, and Pluto, and are now about 18-billion kilometers from earth, and humming along getting further by 3.3 AU/year. The remarkable thing is they are still sending data, almost thirty years or so after they should have done their thing. And they have power sufficient to transmit till 2025.
• Spirit Mars Rover functioned for twenty-times a long as designed before going four-paws up in 2010. Its twin, Opportunity, has lasted thirty-times longer and is still zapping along.
• But we nonetheless oppose the big, ultra-expensive explorer missions because too much is at stake, and the things that can go wrong are many. Either we need to double our space exploration budget, or we need to make explorers half as expensive so that each mission has a backup.
• To those who say: don’t we have enough needs at home? We have a simple reply. Ever occur to anyone that one reason Americans are going slowly insane is because there’s no more frontier? Up to 1880 an American who didn’t like the way things were could pick up and move elsewhere. For 130 years we haven’t been able to do that. But by nature we are different from – say – the Europeans. We are absolutists, and believe compromise is selling out. So since we cannot compromise and be happy, nor can we move away, we are gnawing at our own hind legs. This behavior is neurotic and destructive.
• Okay, you say, so if were to colonize the Moon and Mars and the Jupiter/Saturn moons, how many people are we talking about in a 100 years? A hundred thousand? How is that going to help?
• Well, you have to make a start somewhere. The Lief Ericksons and their equivalent among the Siberians and the Polynesians probably numbered in the thousands. It wasn’t till centuries later that large-scale emigration from Europe, at least, became possible. But if we sit around saying what’s the point, we’ll never get started.
• As for other planets, here’s a simple calculation. Say a planet is 600 light years away and our colony ship (for generation ship as the sci-fi writers call it) can make it up to a sustained one-tenth light speed. That’s only six thousand year without relativistic effects. A few years of slow-mo  acceleration can get a ship to 1/10^th light.
• Only six thousand years you say? Okay, if that seems too long for you, accelerating at one gee for a year puts you close to light speed and then relativistic effects kick in big time. Travel for 10 years at 1 gee than slow down for 10 years at one g, you can visit the center of the galaxy 30,000-light-years away. Of course, 60,000 years has passed on earth http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/47/science-math-philosophy/how-much-time-passes-earth-if-you-accelerate-1g-1033481/
• This will give new meaning to the cliché “you can’t go back home again”.
• But, you will say, how can we possibly build ships that can accelerate/decelerate for 20 years? Not saying it can be done tomorrow. But look, 100 years ago we could not fly. 200 years before that we didn’t have steam engines.
• We can do it.

0230 GMT December 28, 2011

• China debt – a slightly more detailed explanation Occurred to us  we need to better explain what we meant that China’s ability to clean up its debt is greater than ours. Not that ours is a free market economy, but China’s economy is state capitalism. So say Enterprise XYZ has taken on too much debt and can’t pay it back. In the US that means bankruptcy, baby, and the bank has lost its money. You have a whole bunch of XYZ companies, and in the US the banks get freaked, so they start lowering limits and refusing to make loans. Bam, you have a liquidity crisis.
• Well, back in the land of the Red Dragon, when XYZ Enterprises can’t pay back its debt, if the solvency of XYZ is important to the state, the Chinese Government just tells the bank to restructure the debt. The economics of the deal count for zero, the politics count for 100%.
• But, you say, that means the Chinese Government takes the loss, which is to say the Chinese taxpayer. That’s not good. Good or not, the resources of the Chinese people are the government’s to deploy. China is not a democracy; the government is accountable to no one but itself.
• Chinese government has other tools at its disposal, which it uses all the time. Among these tools is to tell ABC Enterprise, which is doing well, to take over XYZ, and that’s the end of the XYZ problem.
• Now, obviously we are simplifying. Government of China cannot, or at any rate will not, bail out every single land deal that is now in trouble: 123 Corporation has borrowed, say Yuan 100-million to put up an office tower on the assumption it will get more-and-more thousand yuan per square foot; the market is overbuilt, it crashes, and now that property is worth less-and-less yuan, so the developer can’t pay the bank back. Government – central, provincial, local – may or may not bail out every developer and bank. But China will not under any conditions let a liquidity crisis set in.
• That’s all there is to it, nothing complicated. In Beijing they don’t have debates about Hayek and Keynes, about big government versus small government, about transparency, about how parliament is going to react, whatever. They do what’s necessary to keep the show on the road and the band playing.
• So there was lot of criticism of US and ROK intelligence for not knowing till 48 hours that the Child of White Swans was dead. We avoided saying anything – hey, even we can’t comment on every stupid allegation the media and its half-educated sources make.
• It’s quite clear to us that Americans, at least, have seen too many Tom Cruise movies and are actually quite weak on how intelligence works.
• That America or ROK doesn’t have an agent inside the very innermost circle of DPRK regime should not be a surprise. That’s not a failure, that’s just reality. So the way we generally find out things DPRK doesn’t want anyone to find out is (a) signal intercept; or (b) reconnaissance. Over the longer term there are all kinds of signs, such as – say – Kim II didn’t appear at such-and-such ceremony which he always attends, stuff like that.
• Well, one reason no one picked up the story of Kim the second dying on a train while travelling the country ministering to the needs of his people who loved him so much is that he did not die on a train. The head of ROK intelligence says the said train did not move from its siding in Pyongyang, Kim was at home and has to have died at home.
• If he died at home, the information could be kept to a small handful of people. Sure, servants and guards and gardeners might know, but in case Americans haven’t noticed, it’s kind of unlikely one of these people will tip-toe over to a telephone and call Washington or Seoul and let us know the old boy is dead.
• DPRK couldn’t have kept the matter secret for long, because invariably someone talks – if only because the succession jockeying begins. But 48 hours? Sure, that’s entirely possible.
• Newt is at it again He has been telling people that he is the senior-most lecturer to the senior military so he knows defense. Hmmmm. Turns out a couple of times a year he gets invited to talk at some defense college or the other, where he lecturers to one and two star types, and he has been doing this for 23 years.
• We dare say that any of a hundred American military professors get in more by way of lectures in a year than Newts has in 23 years, but you don’t hear them touting themselves as the senior-most anything.
• Next, is Newt is talking, Newt is not listening. Since his expertise is talking, where exactly is he picking up his alleged defense expertise from? And a historian is a defense expert? Since when? In what universe?
• If he is a defense expert, may we ask what is NOT an expert on? According to Newt, he’s an expert on everything. That automatically makes him an expert on nothing.
• The man cannot even think two steps ahead. In 2006 he thought Romney’s health care for Massachusetts was the greatest thing since sliced bread. Now he says he’s changed his mind because he’s had a chance to see how it works in practice. So this Giant Intellect could not look ahead at Romney’s plans and see how they would play out?
• So should he become Prez, do we wait every day for his latest brainstorm, so that you have a non-stop sequence of “Lets do this – oopsies, that didn’t work – let’s try that – oopsies, that didn’t work”
• Are Americans mad that this man is even considered a serious candidate to become president?
• By the way, this was Newt’s idea for pension/social security reform. Some of your money would go into government-approved funds. Some you could invest as you wanted. Didn’t do well on your investments? Not to worry. Treasury will send you a check to bring your payment up to par.
• Readers, please tell us: what do you call a man that seriously suggests individuals gamble and the government will indemnify them against losses or lower than anticipated returns? Some GOP voters apparently call him a Presidential contender. We call him a raving idiot. But then what do we know, we’re from Iowa.
• Letter to the Editor Please apologize immediately to Mr. Newton Gingrich. Ad hominum attacks are impermissible in civilized debate. Besides, their use shows you have no proper refutation of Mr. Gingrich’s ideas.
• Letter from Editor to Newts Dear Newts, I am sorry I called you a raving idiot. The raving idiot is obviously me, for having wasted 22 lines refuting your inane ideas. Thank you.

0230 GMT December 27, 2011

• Problems building up in China economy?  So it would seem from the media reports. Now, Editor is no fan of China, nor is much informed about China’s economy which doesn’t seem to operate according to normal economic rules. But Editor doubts China is in as much trouble as is being made out.
• Beijing itself announced that the days of double-digit growth are over. Okay, so big deal. After 30 years the growth had to slow. So China won’t grow at 9% a year, which doubles GDP in eight years. Say it grows at 6%. FDP doubles in 12, and surely China can sustain 6% for 25 years, or till it has a GDP of $30-trillion. It will be number one in the world. So Editor suggests those of us who don’t like China refrain from any celebrations that Chinese growth is slowing.
• So we are told China has figured out it can’t employ its surplus labor all in manufacturing. This is supposed to be a setback? China already has ten percent of the world’s manufacturing; in a couple of years US will be down to 10%. Chinese manufacturing is still growing, it will be first in the world soon. This is supposed to be an economic crisis?
• Then, it is said China has a property bubble that is going to burst and that will create woe and lamentation in the land. Editor is deeply pained to have to say this, people, but didn’t the US just go through a huge, huge property bubble which will take us till 2020 to work through? The point is there are 1.4-billion Chinese going on 1.5-billion, and well over half live in hovels. Demand will rapidly catch up with the supply. Editor would not break out the champagne on this point.
• Okay, so the Chinese are supposed to have a whole bunch of bad debt. Why on earth would an American, or an Englishman, or a Euro get excited about this? We in the west should know a thing or two about bad debt. And China’s ability to clean up its debt is a lot greater than ours.
• The thing is, like it or not, the Chinese central planners seem to know a thing or two about economics. Their 30 year record is unmatched in all of human history. China is a totalitarian country and it can turn on a dime by fiat. Editor suggests we not start judging the Chinese ability to handle their economic problems by assuming they are as incompetent as we are.
• Using tactical A-Bombs in the invasion of Japan Reader Richard Thatcher reminds us that one of the plans was to use nine A-bombs just ahead of the Forward Line of Own Troops (no clue what they called it in those days), against intermediate depth targets, and against depth targets. The lack of information on the radiation aspects of these weapons was so great that US troops were not to enter bombed areas for 48-hours. Indeed, Mr. Thatcher also reminded us about the 1957 test series where US staged 29 tests in 5-months or so, and had tens of thousands of troops as observers, sitting right there without shielding. So people weren’t very clear on radiation effects even 12 years after the war.
• A George Mason University history site says that 300,000 US military personnel were exposed to radiation. At http://historymatters.gmu.edu/d/6451/ you can read the memoir of one officer who with 5000 men was position 11-kilometers from an air-dropped explosion. Then everyone got into their trucks and rumbled up to the explosion area. Whereupon everyone got out and walked through the area. As the officer says, no one died and no one got sick.
• Yoicks. Of course, now a days we are way, way too scared of radiation. You had a problem in Japan, a couple of workers may have died from radiation, and doubtless there will be extra deaths from cancer than might otherwise have been expected. Wunner how many of those Japanese are going to stop smoking, drinking, driving in cars, flying, eating red meat and insisting coal fired power plants be shut down. To say nothing of demanding the elimination of the maybe 50,000 chemicals that cause cancer. Because sure as anything, a whacking greater boat load of Japanese are going to die from these causes than from the extra radiation thrown out at the disaster site.
• But back to the A-bombs and Japan. Had the Japanese been disinclined to surrender after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the use of nine bombs – or even twenty – against troop areas would not have defeated them. A-bombs are great stuff against fixed unprotected targets like a city. Against dug in troops, the blast and fire effects are very greatly reduced.
• And parenthetically we say to our Green friends: you don’t like coal, you don’t like oil, you don’t like hydro, you’re starting to have problems with windmills, yet you also are not prepared to go back to the year of Our Lord 1850. Don’t blame you, neither do we.
• So what’s the solution? Well, passive nuclear reactors. The ones that shut down by themselves should anything go wrong, and so require no human intervention. Extra safety can be obtained by burying them. Yep, your power is going to be expensive because nothing is as cheap as coal and oil, and safety costs money. But really, truly, environmentally N-power is better for us.
• And Greenies – can you also start agitating about the population thing? The earth is polluted not because we use coal and oil or whatever. Its polluted because we have too many people. Cut back the global population to 100-million, and most of your pollution problems will be resolved.
• And thanks to reader Chris Raggio for keeping us informed on the Lulzsec (are we saying it right?) attack on Stratfor. As far as we know, Stratfor is about as harmless an organization as you can get. The attack, according to the hackers, was to steal money and buy Christmas gifts. Also, their “comrade” Bradley Manning is spending his Joyous Season in military jail, and they didn’t think it right that Stratfor clients be enjoying their Christmas.
• We’re going to say something that may seem outrageous. On one level we sympathize with the hackers. Truly, who amongst us would not just love the chance to stick it to The Man?
• But the difference between grownups (or at least purported grownups) and those sticking it to The Man is that grownups restrain themselves. What the hackers are doing is plain theft. How would they like it if others, who lack computers and other nice gadgets the hackers might have, bonk them over the head with a baseball bat and steal their stuff?
• As for Bradley Manning suffering all alone, not to worry, good buddies. Sitting at a computer you really do believe you are anonymous, don’t you. You have no idea, not the least idea, of the massive power of the modern state. You too will be suffering soon enough. That will show your solidarity.
• Mr. Raggio sent an article where this lady who knew some hackers was visited by eight FBI agents. Now try and imagine this. There you are, peacefully reading the comics while taking a satisfying dump, and you are interrupted by eight – eight – FBI agents. They want to know what you know. You sing. Treble, Alto, Tenor, Bass, and several other frequencies you never thought you could reach, but you easily do. Because at any point those FBI agents can take you away for interrogation at their offices. They will find out about the 2-cent stamp you took from office without paying. They will nail you for it.
• And just BTW, children, Manning has it very easy in military jail. He is not getting beat-up, he is not getting sexually assaulted, his face is not being rubbed in poop, he is not getting casually clubbed on the knees every time a guard passes because they don’t like him. If you didn’t know this happens to you in civil jail, those kind FBI agents will make a point to tell you.
• It doesn’t matter how tough you are, you’ll talk. You’ll give up names. They will quietly investigate for months. Then they will move in. They will quickly break all those names – you all are kids, after all.
• And which big-time lawyer will come defend you for free? See, Manning stole documents. He didn’t steal money. Oooooh, The Man hates it when you steal his money. And it won’t be just theft charges. Racketeering and conspiracy will be there.
• So you think: we’re hundreds, we’re thousands. How can they get us all? The Man will simply hire 10,000 more computer cops. If need be he’ll hire 100,000 more. And he won’t have to get you all. He’ll have to get just one. The five who know that one will be lying awake waiting for The Man. They will get two of the five. Then ten people will be lying awake. They will get four of the ten. And so on until you will get down on your knees and pray so hard that you will be a good boy that the neighbors will be banging on the walls asking you to be quiet.
• None of this is to divert from the point Mr. Raggio made. Stratfor didn’t even bother encrypting its credit card transactions. Ultimately, Mr. Raggio notes, organizations have to get more serious about computer security. After all, you don’t leave your house unlocked, or your car, or lay out your credit cards on the curb and leave for work.

30 GMT December 26, 2011

There’s a lot happening around the world, but nothing that requires a shout-out or a rant

• Egypt The Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafis have won Round Two (of three rounds) in Egypt’s multi-step election, 67%. In general, there is not much to fear from the Brotherhood. Okay, so they are conservatives, but they are not stark raving homicidal crazies like the Salafis who want to take the world back to the social norms prevalent in the 8^th Century while enjoying – of course – the material benefits of the 21^st Century.
• To keep in mind: the Egypt election is only intended to elect a constituent assembly. The whole thing is meaningless, because the Army has said it will not even allow power to be snatched from its cold, dead hands. So the poor Egyptians have to go through a second revolution, which could be a bloody affair unless the US steps in. Also to keep in mind: a majority of Egyptians is happy Dictator Muburak is gone, but is highly freaked at the continuing instability and it is likely the majority does NOT support the Second Revolutionaries, if we can term that.
• Belarus Which takes us to Belarus, which is being taken back to Stalin era totalitarianism with all the ultra-hard-ball repression of dissent for which Stalin was famous. The reason Belarus’s leaders are getting away it is because much of the population fears the anarchy that democracy brings, at least until people become used to democracy. Belarus is part of Putin project to recreate the core of the Soviet Empire; the other partner is Kazakhstan. You don’t hear a lot of bad things about Kazakhstan because of one word: hydrocarbons.
• Which takes us to Russia Do not be impressed by the protests. Putin can quash them in an instant. He is allowing them because he can smilingly turn to the west and say: “Wot, me a dictator?” Do not be impressed a Russian billionaire has said he will run against Putin. The fellow is Putin’s man, allowing Putin to say: “Wot, me a dictator?”
• The protesters are the urban elite. Your typical Rus is very, very big on stability and certainty.  See, to you and I the Soviet Union was a dark dictatorship. But as long as you refrained from openly attacking the regime, you were left alone. There was little crime, because the cops were everywhere, and they didn’t have to read you your rights. To this day Russian courts convict 99% of accused. You had a tiny little apartment, but you paid just a couple of dollars a month in rent. Medical care wasn’t wonderful, but it was free. Education was free, and if you had the smarts, you got into elite schools and universities – free. Okay, so the diet was monotonous, but the basics like bread were very cheap. Public transport was a few cents, and in Moscow the idea of running to catch a bus would have been considered nuts, because if you missed one bus, in a few minutes the next one came along. Yes, you didn’t get to buy scotch, but the vodka was absurdly cheap. You had no political freedom, but the state looked after you.
• Now all that is gone, and your average Russian is just as worried about making do as your average American. And all around him you have the Russian 1% who have millions, hundreds of millions, and billions of bucks, fast cars, beautiful women, children studying in Paris and Washington, private bodyguards, and if you don’t get out of their way on the roads, they will simply push you off, and if you are dead or crippled, tough.
• Sure there was corruption in the Soviet Union. But that was if you wanted something extra, like fresh oranges in a Moscow February. If you obeyed the law, kept your head down, and didn’t publically grumble, the corruption didn’t affect you. Right now to even get your due you have to pay.
• We’re sure our readers appreciate we are not defending Soviet Russia, which really was a creation of Satan at his best. We’re just saying do not mirror image Russia. Of course as human being they want the same rights you and I enjoy. But a lot of Russians want to know what use are those political rights when there is no safety in the streets, life very harsh if you are an ordinary Joe, and meantime around you is all the excess, the pomp, the wealth, the power of the Russian nobility during the time of the Czars.
• From Moscow we amble over to Damascus where President Assad has tears in his eyes after the bombing of two intelligence agency buildings in Damascus. Tears of joy, that is. “See?” he declaims “I told you this was a bunch of terrorists, from the start. Everyone knows terrorists deserve no mercy.”
• Well, let’s first take a huge leap of credibility and assume the Syrian opposition did do the deed, which to a lot of people makes no sense because the opposition has avoided traditional terror. This revolt  started off as completely peaceful protests, which were brutally suppressed by the security forces. Part of the Syrian population has guns, and this part decided to shot back. Soldiers defected when told to massacre civilians, so the regime executed those soldiers. To survive, they had no choice but to fight back.
• So okay, we’ll accept it’s a civil war. So what? Wasn’t Libya a civil war? Wasn’t Yemen a civil war? Go back far enough, and wasn’t the American Revolution a civil war? In terms of what the colonists were doing, were they not traitors and terrorists? There was no reason for Syria to become a civil war – no reason except Assad Bloody Hands did not want to give up power.
• Assad’s days are numbered, he absolutely cannot survive because he is a minority repressing a majority. A Shia minority repressing a Sunni majority – iron or ironies, because in Iraq it was the other way around. The Gulf Sunnis have ganged up on Assad, sooner or later, its going to be goodbye to another dictator.
• From Damascus we take a stroll to Iran Teheran is determined to go down fighting, and is so out of touch with brutal reality it is doing ten-day exercises on how to close Hormuz. Just the kind of behavior that assures the world they are dealing with a sane, rational power.
• Last time there was a Hormuz crisis, 2008, Editor was very frustrated because people kept saying “Ooooh, we’re dead because the Iranians will close Hormuz”. Well, militarily there is no way they can close Hormuz unless they make a first strike, and it wouldn’t have stayed close for long. Our own estimate was two-weeks to three months. This time around, for some reason, the military experts are saying the closure will be days, which truthfully, if Iran makes a second strike – closure in response to an attack on Iran – is accurate. That’s because an attack on Iran will begin with sterilizing – not sanitizing – the Iran coast. Even a fishing sail-powered dhow will not be able to move.
• But if things go wrong, the closure could be as we estimate, up to three months.
• What will happen? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. We’ve been through the pipeline equations, and 10-million of 17-million barrels will still flow daily. Even sea-borne traffic will resume in days – the megatankers may not be able to sail, but smaller tankers will. You’ll lose a few million barrels a day for max three months, and the world has reserves to ride that out.
• But won’t oil shoot up? Last time around some financial institutions was licking its chops and saying “Ooooh, oil will go up to $250”. Our response was “In your dreams, buster.” This time we were taken aback to hear Armand de Borchgrave – he’s a senior journalist – say the price will go to $300 to $500. If we are going to pull figures out of the air, why stop at $500? Why not $5,000/bbl? Why not $50,000/bbl?
• Now don’t be absurd, Mr. Editor, you will say, who will pay $5,000/bbl? Precisely. Now ask yourself who will pay $500 when there’s a couple of billion barrels in global reserve, and the Straits will be reopened quickly.
• The great weakness of the $500/bbl school, which is a total wet dream of speculators, is that the day Hormuz closes, government will ban forward trading in oil futures. They will take steps to ration oil in the event Hormuz remains closed for half a year or a year.
• Further, there is something the economists call demand destruction. We saw that in 2008 when oil shot up to $150 and then collapsed to $80. Yes, the recession had something to do with it. But more than that, demand started going down because $150 was not justifiable under any objective factors.
• Incidentally, there is a move in the US at least to ban non-actual-users from forward trading in oil. Consider for a moment: the idea of the futures market is that it matches up future supply and demand, giving certainty to the producer and the buyer. No economic purpose is served by speculation in oil – or any other commodity. Before US hedge funds, awash with trillions of dollars of pension money, decided to speculate in oil, the futures market represented reality. Right now speculators have pushed up oil $30 above what economics says it is – and at that, that’s cartel economics. (Exxon chief gave that figure some months back.)
• So right now a lot of people don’t like the idea of government controls, particularly when its stopping them from ripping off your pants and mine by making us pay absurd prices for our oil. Do the speculators really think the people and the government will let them not rip off our underpants as well if Hormuz should close?
• “Oooooh!” the speculators will say “Rationing never works. It creates a black market.” Hmmmm. So you know, governments have a remedy for that. They allow a certainly level of black marketeering because up to a point its too petty to cost-effectively police. Beyond that point, they simply take speculators and shoot them in the town square.
• And if the speculators think “Ooooooh, this is America, that will never happen”, they need to be disabused of this fantasy. People say how you should never mess with the right of Americans to own guns because you’ll have a revolution on your hands. Well, guess what Americans love more than their guns?
• You guessed right. In the absence of controls, and with full throttle speculation, gas will go up to $15/gallon. At that point the Editor will not have to shoot any speculator. The little old lady at the end of the street will do the shooting herself.
• This being Takoma Park, Maryland (the Berkeley of the East) she may need to borrow someone’s gun. On the other hand, Editor has been inside her house when she needed help moving stuff. The little old lady has a kitchen knife with an 18-inch long and three-inch wide blade. Just as effective. Cheaper too. Given the cost of living, bullets are not so cheap in America anymore.
• When Editor was in college, he used to bartend. At one party, even though they were grad school and grad assistant types, they’d hired the local policeman for security, as it was going to be a wild party. Editor has a vague memory of  a rather tall lady arriving clad in high-heels, a fishnet body suit, and silver paint, and nothing else. The security was to stop the townies from crashing the party, grad school students were too well-behaved to fight.
• Anyway, Editor had to keep making trips back to the kitchen where The Law was ensconced, downing bourbons as if prohibition was going to be declared at midnight. Solid Massachusetts man, in his early fourties. Because there was hardly any non-European immigration in those days, people thought Editor was from southern Italy or from Greece. To simplify things he used the nom de guerre “George” which is what his friends called him.
• So The Law was telling Editor about his time in the wartime navy, on a destroyer in the Pacific. He proceeded to explain to the Editor how young people today had no respect for The Law.
• There was this lady (not the tall one), who was intent on – er – amorous activity with two of the grad students, simultaneously, and was by the time – shall we say – rather scantily clad. Let’s just say panties were being worn, but somehow they had got transferred from the young lady to one of the young gentlemen. So doubtless you are thinking: if he’s wearing her panties, his boxers have to be on her head, obviously.
• You would be wrong. His boxers were on the head of the other young gentleman, which was a bit baffling, now that Editor thinks of it. Of course, us bartenders are not paid to think.
• Somehow the three ended up in the kitchen, and the young lady fell in the lap of The Law, which slowed neither her down nor slowed her admirers down. In those days we didn’t have the holler “Get a room, people”  So The Law and Editor merely continued their conversation.
• The three guests were – shall we just say – deep in the throes of passion, and at some point the young lady grabbed the Law’s tie for something to hold on to. The Law was being quietly strangled, as the throes of passion were – shall we say – considerable and loud.   Law just kind of squinted, ignored what was happening on his lap, downed another considerable part of his bourbon, and morosely proclaimed: “I’m telling you, George, this country isn’t what it used to be.”
• So the other day Editor was updating Concise World Armies and for some reason an advert for an ammo supply place came up. Editor almost passed out from shock: 30-30 Remington rounds are a dollar each. One. Dollar. A. Round. If the Government came to take away the Editor’s gun (hypothetical gun, as he can’t afford one) he could not even resist because he can’t afford to buy any ammunition. And with a straight face  they call this a democracy?
• Editor’s reaction was the same as that of The Law, those many decades gone. He blindly reached for his glass of bourbon, finished off half (metaphorically, as he doesn’t drink), and mournfully proclaimed to himself: ““I’m telling you, George, this country isn’t what it used to be.”

0230 GMT December 25, 2011

• Dear Editor I have been wondering where you get your eclectic, eccentric, and peculiar economics. Now that you have explained you slept through your economics texts (and presumably your lectures), the reasons for your deep ignorance become perfectly clear.
• In common with your fellow countrymen, you seem to have the same rabid fear of Keynes that American creationists have of Darwin. I make the analogy with intent, because only Americans are still arguing about Keynes versus Hayek. To the rest of the world, Keynesian economics is mainstream, just as for the rest of the world, Darwinism is mainstream thinking.
• What Keynes said was very simple. There are business cycles. In an up-cycle, government needs to cut back on spending and raise taxes. This prevents inflation, which after all is the single greater destroyer of man’s economic labors. In a down-cycle, when private demand collapses, government must step in by reducing spending and bowing money to spend. Saying that Keynes was the guru of big government and centralized government is without foundation. Keynes did not want the government telling you how to spend your money. In good times he wanted government to contract. He saw an expanded role for government only in bad times.
• In contrast to Keynes’ prescription, your government – and mine – has for decades failed to cut spending and up taxes in good times. It has used good times to expand the role of the government. This would give Keynes fits. That cutting spending and increasing taxes in bad times is suicidal is quite evident in the Eurozone which is heading into deep recession (some parts of the zone already are in deep recession) because of the quite idiotically superstitious beliefs of the Germans regarding inflation. I accept the Germans were traumatized by the inflation after World War I. But then to approach every economic situation within the paradigm of inflation is the equivalent of saying: “My marriage did not work out, not only will I never marry again, neither should anyone else marry – ever”. Inflation comes when demand exceeds production. That is not the problem today because productive capacity far exceeds demand. The danger is deflation not inflation.
• Yes, I am waiting for you to say “But the American stimulus did not work.” You have said it many times, though I recognize you believe it did not work because the money was given to the banks who then refused to lend it, so demand was not stimulated. You have a point, but the reason the American stimulus did not work was that it was too little, too late. It was guaranteed to fail, indeed, the American Keynesian Paul Krugmann predicted it would fail. So if I throw a drowning man a rope three meters long when he is six meters from shore, and he drowns, do I conclude that  throwing ropes to drowning men is futile?
• You have frequently these last months bemoaned that the politicization of the simplest things in America is running America into the ground. I agree. But the failure of Presidents Bush and Obama to increase the stimulus is because of politics. Both were/are so deathly afraid of the Republican right wing that they would rather fail than run afoul of that august lobby.
• Let me conclude with my own thoughts of why America is so politicized that is has become not just non-functional, but dysfunctional. The world in the era of globalization has become bewildering complex.  The solution is greater intellectual power. America, however, prides itself on its anti-intellectualism, which is akin to boasting: “I never read a book and that makes me a superior man!”. Instead of educating themselves, keeping an open mind, an eschewing rigid doctrine, Americans are retreating further into intellectual fundamentalism. I believe Islamic fundamentalism must fail because it is fundamentalism. So must Christian fundamentalism and yes, economic fundamentalism. The Germans are suffering from the same syndrome. Be that as it may, unless Americans accept intellectualism, they are doomed to become the barbarians that destroyed the west, instead of playing the role the role that brought the country into being and making it great. And America became great because of its intellectual ideas, so powerful they have become the truth for all humankind – at a time America rejects intellectualism.
• Editor’s response Che. Here is it is Saturday, Christmas Eve, not a date in sight, and this reader by the unlikely name of E. Edward Edwardes is stomping your Editor, who can’t defend himself just because decades ago he fell asleep in his economics classes. With a name like that, Editor suspects the letter writer is English. We thought the English were a sporting race, believing in giving a man a second chance, and not holding youthful sins and omissions against a person for forever. Or is that the Americans? Older the Editor gets, the more confused he becomes.

The annotated nightly briefing from Reader Luxembourg

• Luxembourg resides in Chicago, which he calls “My L’il Cesspool”. He sends a nightly collection of the days absurd stories. So for Christmas we thought we would forward his Christmas Eve briefing.
• In Iraq this year I asked an Iraqi military officer doing joint training at   an American base what was the big thing he’d come to believe about Americans   in the years they’d been there. He thought. “You are a better people than your   movies say.” He had judged us by our exports. He had seen the low slag heap of   our culture and assumed it was a true expression of who we are.
• And so he’d assumed we were disgusting.
• Thomas Friedman Was Unavailable For Comment: “The   Xinjiang Procedure: Beijing’s ‘New Frontier’ is ground zero for the organ   harvesting of political prisoners.” http://www.weeklystandard.com/print/articles/xinjiang-procedure_610145.html  Funny how people who were outraged   beyond outrage by the Abu Ghraib pics don’t care much about this.
• Sign Of The Times: A   Frankincense Shortage. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204552304577116741588910380.html
• Have a Sno-cone and enjoy the show: snow-cone   machines for homeland security. “when you give out money based on   politics, without any accounting, this is what you get.”

http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2011/12/snow_cone_machi.html

• Change: Annual   fuel budget for U.S. families this year? Over $4,000. “Been wondering   where a bunch of your money went this year? For the average American family, a   higher percentage of the budget was spent on gas in 2011 than at any point   since 1981. According to the AP, gas cost most Americans $4,155, or 8.4   percent of the median household income, in 2011. In 1981, the number was 8.8   percent. In the 2000s, a normal number was around 5.7 percent. The culprit, as   should not be a surprise, was $3.50-a-gallon gas in a sluggish economy.” http://green.autoblog.com/2011/12/23/annual-fuel-budget-for-u-s-families-this-year-over-4-000/
• Unless, Of Course, It’s A Brilliant Piece Of Misdirection: How   Downed U.S. Drone Helps China. http://the-diplomat.com/2011/12/24/how-downed-u-s-drone-helps-china/
• My Lil Cesspool ...you   know. CHICAGOLAND: Christmas Brings Rampant Thefts Of Baby Jesus Statues, Lawn         Decorations... http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2011/12/23/christmas-brings-thefts-of-baby-jesus-statues-lawn-decorations/
• Editor’s comment Editor thought he was being very clever when he planned to suggest that anyone wanting to put up a religious display in public spaces be permitted to do son. The every religion could express their holy days. Well, apparently in Leesberg, Virginia they’ve had this policy since 2009. So atheists have this year grabbed most of the 10 spaces. One of their displays is a skeleton dressed as Santa Claus. The story is from NPR http://www.npr.org/2011/12/24/144151483/secular-opponents-of-holiday-displays-get-creative and like good liberals, NPR clearly believes that passing a moral judgment is a crime so the story is actually quite sympathetic to the display-site-hoggers.
• Let us first say that Editor believes in public subsidies for the arts and he is for government funding of NPR. So Editor is not bashing NPR. Editor is merely reminding readers of what Patrick Moynihan called “defining deviancy down”. Moynihan was a larger-than-life liberal in the old style, but he said that there are consequences to continually downgrading what society considers deviant behavior (see Luxembourg’s story about the Iraqi officer, first paragraph).
• Second, so you are an atheist, is there some law that says you have to prove you are uneducated? What does Santa Claus have to do with religion? Saint Nick’s is a tradition celebrated  around Christmas. But Santa is 100% secular. Have you ever heard Santa utter the words “God” or “Jesus”? Sure he talks about Christmas, but it’s about the celebration of Christmas as a secular holiday, not as an occasion to worship the deity. NPR just shows its own confusion when it titles its story: “Secular opponents of holiday displays get creative”. So these people are objecting to holiday displays and not religious displays?
• A huge part of Santa Claus is about the kids. So it’s really, really thoughtful of some people to be putting a Santa suit on a skeleton and exhibiting it in a public space. It shows how terribly clever, how amazingly sophisticated, these people, what a fantastic sense of humor they have, what genius irony they can exhibit.
• Editor likes to think he is an intellectual. When he hears stories like this, he’s not sure if Americans are wrong to reject intellectualism, even if they do it for incorrect reasons.
• See, if Editor were not an intellectual, he could speak his mind about these people. He could say: “A skeleton Santa is ‘getting creative’?” What a sick bunch of deviant perverts.” And by that Editor also means NPR.
• [For the record, Editor does not celebrate Christmas because Christ is the last person on anyone’s mind. When the youngest was little, Mrs. R. IV would put up a 2-foot plastic tree made in Hong Kong (this is before everything was made in China) and she’d put the presents for the youngster around the tree. Not a word said about Christ. Editor once made the mistake of taking the family to a Midnight Mass at a Catholic church, just something that should be experienced once, after all, one reads about the midnight mass all the time. Big mistake. The congregation was mainly dressed in sweats. Talked through the service. Chewed gum. Kids ran around screaming. People changed seats to catch up on gossip with friends they hadn’t seen in a while. Other people napped. Went outside to smoke and use the cell phone. Hopefully not to have a holiday nip. Another sick bunch of deviant perverts.]

0230 GMT December 24, 2011

• Letter to Editor regarding rant on Christmas without Christ From Robert Griffin. I suspect Editor has gotten two separate things mixed up. First, what most non-Christians will be objecting to is the display of Christian symbols on government property. The Establishment Clause is generally interpretation by courts to mean that government in no way should support any religion. The White House is home to a person who is President of all Americans, not just to Christian Americans and its lawns are a public space. Second, if someone is objecting to the display of Christian symbols on private property, I will be the first one to say this is wrong.
• Editor’s response  According to the Third American Religious Survey http://wessner.ca/?p=388 75% of Americans identify themselves as Christians, 5% as belonging to other religions, 15% as having no religion, and 5% as refusing to answer. How does the White House Christmas Tree support Christianity? Is the White House pushing Christianity over other religions? We think not, because from what we read the White House regularly has celebrations of the holy days of other religions. We may as well argue that the official declaration of December 25^th as the Christmas Day holiday (not the Winter Holiday or whatever) is illegal.
• With three of four Americans saying they are Christians, and with Christmas celebrated worldwide including in non-Christian countries, we think it’s about as close to a universal day as one can get. Sure, other cultures – like non-Christian Indians – are not celebrating it as a religious holiday. You can even argue that the power of American advertising is such that Christmas has become a global secular holiday. Certainly we may agree this business of shopping till we drop is actually offensive to the spirit of Christ, who was anti-materialistic. But Why should a non-Christian be upset because the White House Christmas Tree has Christian symbols? Isn’t America supposed to be about tolerance? When 3 of 4 Americans are Christians, why are we begrudging them symbols that are important to them?
• Who precisely is objecting? Presumably the objectors are from the 5% non-Christians and 5% atheists, a pool that is 10% of the American population. How many from this pool are objecting? Is it as much as 1%? Is any purpose served by someone from the 1% getting aggressive and saying Christian symbols on public land are unacceptable? When the 75% are not harming in any way the 1%, it is (a) mean beyond belief to object; and (b) spineless beyond belief of the First Family to eliminate Christian symbols from the First Tree.
• By the way, if Christian symbols are objectionable when displayed on public land, that tree had better come down. Because what symbolizes Christmas better than the tree with a star. The holiday had better be repealed.
• Now let us approach this obliquely Much is being made of the Homecoming Kiss bestowed by a female naval serviceperson on her girlfriend, another female serviceperson. You have to, of course, wonder if the media so hard up for news that they have to publicize something of zero significance. One of the servicepeople is in the uniform of the United States Navy. The action takes place in a naval dockyard. By no definition whatsoever is the Homecoming Kiss a private affair. There is a solid percentage of the US population that holds same-sex relations to be immoral and an offence to God.  So what would people think if someone went to the courts, saying naval personnel on duty, wearing the country’s uniform, and on government property?
• If someone objects, should we not be saying: “Look, I don’t agree to this, but America is about tolerance, and I should be tolerant”?
• Ditto the Christmas Tree.
• This said, Editor has to make a caveat If a Jewish person objected to public displays of Christmas symbols, Editor would understand. Note we said “understand”. We did not say it is right. There is 2000 years of very bad history between Christianity and Judaism with Jews coming out – repeatedly – on the losing end. If a Jewish person tells Editor: “I get really, really freaked at seeing Christian symbols in ANY public context because I worry this may be the thin edge of the wedge. My people fled to America to save themselves from people who called themselves Christians but used the power of the State to oppress my people. I would rather the public and the private observance of Christianity be kept as separate as possible.”
• Editor’s reply might be: the government of a (at the time) an overwhelmingly Christian note gave you refuge, please be gracious at least this one time of the year. You cannot blame the White House and the US president for the terrible atrocities you endured under the Nazis, the Russian pogroms, at the hands of the Spanish and so on.
• Editor might also ask: “If Israel can be tolerant of Christian symbols, why can’t American Jews?
• Just utterly beside the point WWJD if he passed by the White House and saw the National Christmas Tree? Editor cannot claim to be an expert on Christianity, but his suspicion is that Jesus would not approve. First, Jesus was against the establishment of a church. Secondly, he would have considered himself a failure to witness how his followers have deified him and how they worship him. Thirdly, as we said before, he would be very aggravated at the commercialism carried on in an ostensible celebration of his birth. Quite honestly, if Jesus was to go to the mall and take the skin off the back of crazed shopper using a whip, Editor for one would applaud.
• As a teacher who told the Editor she is a devout Christian but does not celebrate Christmas said: “Christmas has become a circus in Christ’s name; but if Christ was to walk on to the stage and stand their quietly, he would be ignored because we are so busy doing everything except what he wanted. I will spend my Christmas considering how I can better meet the standards Christ has set me.”
• Profound, moving, sincere, and – dare we say it – possibly even holy.
• So, dear readers, carry on with the shopping, massive consumption of alcohol and food, enjoy killing the turkey who has done no harm – at least no turkey Editor has met has done him harm, and so on. Editor will be working at home tomorrow, like The Brain in Pinkey and the Brain doing what he does every night, plot to take over the world. Editor is not going to Grinch your Christmas, but he sure is going to do a lot of complaining and whining, but then he does that regularly, Christmas or not.
• And this really is it for tonight Two souls got on Air Force One yesterday and headed out for the Presidential vacation in Hawaii. One was President Obama, the other was Bo. We sincerely wish one gets a Christmas stocking full of nice things, and the other gets a Christmas stocking full of coal. Just to help you with the puzzle, our Coal Candidate is not the soul who looks endearingly cut and walks on four legs.
• Along with the coal should be a card: “We, the people, are taking away all your planes and helicopters. You can fly Sardine Class and pay for your own tickets just as we all do. As for security, are you saying the rest of us don’t have a right to be secure? Either give each of us an Air Force One, or travel like the rest of us and take your chances.”

0230 GMT December 23, 2011

• Does it say in the Bible that God ordered the US Congress not to make sense? It would appear so.  Cutting the payroll tax once again is messing up Social Security once again. This is – once again – pushing our problem down the road on to the back of our children. That the Boomers should do this is no surprise, given their colossal selfishness. But Congress has plenty of members who are post-Boomer. We’re counting post-Boomer as after 1960 – we think using 1964 as the cut-off date is a bit unrealistic. Surely fifteen years of breeding like rabbits sufficied to clam down the World War II generation.
• One on side you have our beloved President, who has not a single real Christmas ornament on his Christmas tree and sees nothing wrong with that. We are told the White House doesn’t want to offend non-Christians. So to not offend non-Christians, Christians should make their second holiest day into a secular celebration? Okay, Editor – who is not a Christian by the way, will go for it. If and when all other religions stop celebrating their holidays so as not to offend Christians and others not of their faith. Or is the case that only Christians are capable of giving offense so only they must make their holidays secular? If a country that is vastly Christian majority cannot celebrate its holy days without minorities getting offended, then where is the justice, the tolerance, the acceptance that led non-Christians to migrate to America in the first place?
• Our Prez wants to increase his chances of relection, so nothing like pandering to the people – after all, the man’s retirement is not going to be affected because there won’t be enough money in Social Security by the time we are through with this nonsense.
• On the other side you have the blessed GOP, who for a moment showed some spine, wondering how the tax cut money was to be made up. Of course, they showed spine for all the wrong reasons – they give no more hoots than the President for the future of this country, they wanted to deny him an election advantage. And of course, had they insisted this tax cut be paid for, the Democrats would have said: “Interesting. When the Republicans propose tax cuts without offsetting reductions, the extra jobs created are supposed to increase the tax inflow – which if it happens  they then again use as an excuse to cut taxes again. When we cut taxes, the GOP asks where are the offsets?
• Then the Editor gets home five hours later than usual because he had his annual physical after work and then got caught in the holiday traffic – his route home skirts a major shopping center, and since he’s never out in the evening he got caught unawares. He is not a happy camper. Then he learns from the Washington Post that lobbyists cannot buy members of Congress a slice of pizza or a hot dog – buying meals is prohibited. But if I want to give one billion dollars to the party of my choice, as long as I am a company its okay for me to buy Congresspeople by the score, but it’s not okay for me to buy that same Congressperson who I own a slice of pizza?
• Editor’s prayer to the Deity: “Please Lord, let this all be a bad dream and please may I wake into a sane world.”
• Message left on Editor’s telephone answering machine by the Christian Deity: “Have left America to settle in New Zealand. No America-specific prayers will be answered any more. “
• Oh, wait, the answering machine is still blinking. It’s another message, this time from the Hindu Deity. “You are living in a dream, Doofus, and the reason it’s a bad dream is that you were a very bad boy in your last life, and now you have to pay the price by making penance and maybe I’ll relent for your next life to the extent of letting you have one date one a Saturday.”
• Message left by Editor on Hindu Deity’s answering machine: “Lord, I am so ready to be penitent I am even willing to wear a skirt and change my name to Ravina to atone for making fun of Bradly “Breana” Manning.”
• Message left by Hindu Deity on Editor’s machine by Hindu Deity, seconded via conference call by all other Deities: “Don’t be silly. We mean you have to do a real penance. You are to go a whole day without disrespecting the President, Congress, the Democratic and Republican parties, the US Administration, and the Washington Post.”
• Message left by Editor on all Deities telephone answering machines: “But making fun of all those people is the only way the Editor gets through this horrible dream.”
• Message left by Deities on Editor’s answering machine: “Okay, we see your point. Your alternative penance, not negotiable, is to write something nice about the Kardashian Sisters and Lindsay Lohan.”
• Message left by Deities on Editor’s answering machine: “Yo, Head Doofus. We have not heard from you. Give your reply at once: Deities don’t like to be kept waiting.”
• Message left by Editor’s family on Deities answering machine: “Sorry for the delay. Editor did not reply because he shot himself, leaving a cryptic note: “I can’t do this”. Any idea what he was referring to?”

0230 GMT December 22, 2011

• Can we please talk sense about Iraq? Anyone with one functioning brain cell knew that when the US left Iraq, the Iraqis would get back to sorting out their issues the way they did before the US arrived. By killing each other. Iraq is 60% Shia, 20% Sunni, and 20% Kurd. Rather than go back to 1600 AD, which to the Editor is yesterday but to our younger readers may seem too far in the past to identify with, let’s go back to 1970, when Saddam came into power. A Sunni, he killed any Kurd or Shia who opposed him. When US overthrew him, and introduced democracy, by the nature of the beast Iraq came to be ruled by Shias. The Sunnis were not happy, the Shias were itching for blood, and so you have the horrific events in the run-up to the US surge of 2007. The surge put an end to the bloodletting. Some say it did not, what ended the killing was that the Shias finished ethnically cleansing the Sunnis from the Shia majority provinces.
• Either way, clearly the underlying tensions of the previous 400 years, when Sunni kings came to rule the three provinces of the Ottoman  Empire we call Iraq were not resolved. Some say the tensions of the last 1300 years. The Shias made no secret that once the US left, they would get back to killing Sunnis. We can argue what precisely this means, some say that the Shia are perfectly happy to let the Sunnis have Sunni majority provinces and to live there in a united Iraq, as long as your average Shia does not have to see or smell a Sunni. After the US left, that the Shias waited, like, 12 hours before going after the key Sunni ministers in the US-brokered cabinet should have come as no surprise to anyone.
• So from the viewpoint of some in the US, the US shouldn’t have left, and the Administration is criminally negligent for having pushed off. It is these people who seem to lack even one functioning brain cell. We’ve gone over this a jillion times. Let’s make it a jillion and one.
• The US did not want to leave. Is there anything too complicated for the earthworm brained Americans who are now getting upset to understand? (Yes, we realize earthworms are Nobel material compared to the Americans we are talking about, but we don’t know any creature without a single braincell, except among the tribe known as Washingtoons. So the earthworms is a metaphor, we do not mean to insult the earthworm tribe.)
• US plan was to occupy Iraq forever and a day with 50,000 troops. Problemo, dudes, as the Ninja Turtles used to say. With the exception of the Kurds, and some Sunnis, the vast majority of Iraqis did not want the US to stay. Just in case their own leaders did not get the point, extremists Shia including the Terrorist Al-Sadr told their government if the US did not leave, they would resume attacks on US forces. So is it the case of “we should have stayed” crowd that the US should get into a new war in Iraq? If so, can they tell us why?
• US kept bargaining with the Iraqis. Okay, let us keep 20,000 troops. No? How about 5,000?  No? Okay, you can’t object to 3,000, for heaven’s sake. Al-Malaki, who has no time for the Americans, got fed up and said: “Okay, but your troops cannot have immunity from arrest, trial, and jailing if we, the Iraqis, decide they have committed a crime.
• Please for the Washingtoons to explain: how could any US president have agreed to this?
• The Washingtoons say but if the Administration had negotiated skillfully, the Iraqis could have been brought around. Really? If people think that, they have zero clue about Iraq. What leverage is it the US had in the matter? Iraq is earning $80-billion a year – for a country of 30-million – from its oil. It has more money than we do. So it doesn’t want our money. Next, it doesn’t want our protection because the country we want to protect Iraq against is Iraq’s friend, whereas the people who the Iraqis may want protection against are America’s friends. Nor are the Iraqis interested in our oil expertise. In the lineup to develop Iraqi oil, one country is sadly missing. Us. Coinkydinky? We don’t think so. We don’t expect you to take our word for it: talk to the American oil companies and you will see Iraq made quite clear it was going to be Iraq’s way or the dirt road, and their way was ratcheted up to the point that it was near impossible for American companies to do business and still make what they consider a decent profit. Iraq does not want our oil expertise.
• The Washington Post, which on some days views with Mad Magazine for the Funnies, yesterday suggested that the Iraqis want our F-16s so we have leverage with them.
• Washington Post is, of course, confusing Iraq with Pakistan. Pakistan wants F-16s. Iraq would like to have F-16s, because frankly, for a small air force it’s a very good deal. But guess what, WashPo? Suppose Washington says: “Behave, or no F-16s”. The Iraqis are going to roll their eyes, and say, okay, no F-16s. They will turn around and buy Eurofighter, which if you have the money is a better buy. So perhaps the Euros say: “Oh, we can’t sell you Eurofighter because you are busy massacring Sunnis”, the Russians will say: “Here – take our Su-30”. It’s called the free market – something you can’t expect anyone in Washington to understand. So they don’t want our arms either.
• By 2018 Iraq plans on pumping 13.5-million barrels/day of oil. Okay, its not going to happen till 2025. At $80/barrel, that is: One. Billion. Smackers. A. Day. (We have to say this slowly because Washingtoons, being brainless, are not quick.) That sum is $120,000/per capita using today’s population and prices. What precisely is this leverage we’re supposed to have over Iraq?
• Next we come to a point of philosophy Can the United States explain to us why it wants Iraq to stay together? If there is one country above all others that has broken up nations, it is the US. We’re not saying this is right or wrong. Merely asking Americans: why are you contradicting yourselves? Just in the last twenty something years, the US helped create: fifteen new states from the former USSR, six countries freed from the Soviet Empire, breakup of Czechoslovakia, and eight countries from Former Yugoslavia. That’s 29 right there. Did the US try and keep Sudan together? Sudan has already split into two, and if Darfur manages to get independence you aren’t going to see the US object. If Belgium decides to split, are we going to see US peacekeepers yelling “Peace and Harmony, or we shoot!” We could continue, but you get the point.
• In each of the cases, US took the sensible stand that people did not want to live together, and the US did what it could to create amicable separations. The right course in Iraq is not moan and whine about being forced out, but to tell the Iraqis: “We don’t want you killing each other, let’s help you separate.” Oooooh, but that means an independent Kurdistan, and Turkey will not like that. You know what? How is that an American problem? The clear solution is a Kurdish state of four provinces, a Sunni state of four, and a Shia state of ten. As for how the Sunnis are going to survive (a) there’s said to be a ton and a half of natural gas in Sunni provinces (b) how is this our problem? Let the Gulf Arabs help their co-religionists. By the way, if US doesn’t want to leave Iraq, A Sunni nation and a Kurd nation will gladly accept US protection.
• So: Washington, stop whining already From Day One going to into Iraq served no American objective. The Iraqis have done us a favor by forcing us to quit cold turkey. We should be thanking Al-Malaki and Al-Sadr for saving us from our folly. Feeling lonely that we’re not occupying someone? Heck, there’s plenty of action in Africa. Somalia and Darfur come immediately to mind. (Somalia is very high on the list of countries to split, by the way. There’s already three autonomous nations: Jubaland (Anazia), Puntland, and Somaliland.)
• That sound you’re hearing is Editor banging his head against the neighbor’s stone wall Give him a minute and he’ll tell you why. It feels too good to stop.
• Okay. Remember yesterday we were saying a friend was trying to explain Keynes is dead because Keynes does not work when there is a huge debt overhang?
• Reader BR points out that (a) our friend was channeling Robert Samuelson’s column of a few days back, and (b), he sends a graph from a Paul Krugman article that shows UK, at least, is pretty low debt-wise compared to the last 170 years. You can see the graph at http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/19/dont-know-much-about-history-debt-edition/?emc=eta1 Truthfully, aside from the British military and a general knowledge of British history, Editor knows nothing about British economic history. So it was a big surprise to learn that in the 1830, British debt was 180% of GDP. Then it steadily reduced so that by 1914, it was 30% (we’re reading off the graph, these are approximations).  By 1950 it was a whacking great 260% of GDP, then started coming down again. 1970s through 2005 it was at 50%. Now the public debt is 63%; if money lent to banks is included it is 148%  http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/334/uk-economy/uk-national-debt/
• We’re wondering if Robert Samuelson is the son of the Samuelson who wrote the economics text used when Editor took Economics 1 and Economics 180. There were a whole bunch of textbooks one was supposed to master, including monetary policy, microeconomics, and labor policy. Editor never got to the other books. He didn’t get past page 20 in the Samuelson text – invariably the graph explaining marginal utility Editor would fall fast asleep.
• The North Korean Troika The word is that power will be shared by the Podgy Kid who is either 27, 28, or 29, or all three, his aunt and her husband (aunt is the now dead dad’s sister), and the generals. Apparently the aunt likes her alcohol and own’s Pyongyang’s only hamburger joint.
  Simply fascinating. Zzzzzzz.
• More bangy-bangy in Iran this time as an Isfahan refinery and the Kermanshah HQ of the Revolutionary Guard. From what we read, it seems most of the explosions are the work of Iran dissidents, not foreigners.
• Syria 250 dead in the last 48 hours, including nearly 100 regime soldiers and about as many deserters. Rebels are now operating in a Damascus suburb seven miles from downtown Damascus.  
• Haaretz of Israel says half of the conscripts for the last three call-ups have not reported for training and 10,000 soldiers have deserted, including entire units. Warning: Haaretz is not an impartial source even if Israel would rather live with the devil it knows (Assad) than with a chaotic Syria at war with itself.
• Iraq The Sunni Vice President al-Malaki seeks to arrest for treason and terrorism has fled to Kurdistan, where he cannot be touched by Iraq forces. Al-Malaki has told the Sunnis if they do not stop their boycott of parliament, he will form a new government and exclude them from power. He has told the Kurds to hand over the Sunni VP or face the consequences.

0230 GMT December 21, 2011

• Bradley Manning Sorry, that should be Breana Manning. Anyway, we jumped the gun a bit about Manning’s sentence. What’s happening is a pre-trial hearing, not the trial. The way it’s going, however, there is no doubt whatsoever that (a) Manning will be sent to trial; (b) Manning will be found guilty; and (c) the sole question is the sentence.
• Now, regarding Julian Assange. The prosecution has introduced evidence that Assange and Manning were in direct contact. But as yet it has not been proved that any emails Manning may have given Assange were published. So the thinking is that so far no case can be made against Assange.
• We differ slightly. US laws are not concerned with if you published a US secret document. They are concerned with if you had unauthorized possession of the secret. So let’s see how this plays out.
• Assange might be tempted to feel pleased he has been directly linked to Manning, because that ups the chances of his prosecution. That in turn bolsters his contention that he should not be extradited to any country that might extradite him to the US, as the offense is a death penalty offense.
• But we don’t think this is going to make any difference to Assange’s extradition to Sweden. He has to reasonably show Sweden will extradite him to the US. He cannot show that, because from what we understand, his Wikileaking was not a crime in Sweden. Realistically, there is a chance Britain will extradite him to US because of the close ties the two countries have. He would be safer in Sweden, unless, of course, at the end of proceedings in Sweden, guilty or innocent, the Swedes put him on a plane to Australia. The Australians have already said they are taking a dim view of Assange’s games.
• But can Assange not argue before a British court that he should not be sent to US, as Britain has no death penalty? No, because US will simply give UK assurances the death penalty will not be imposed. Nor can he argue he will be tortured, because this is not a black case. It concerns the Official Secrets Act, which means it will be handled in the criminal justice system. So no torturing. Too bad. If anyone deserves to be waterboarded, it is Mr. Smirky Face. Not because of the severity of his crime, but because of his arrogance.
• Had A-Bomb Number Three not worked on Japan We wondered yesterday what would have happened had Japan refused to surrender even after being A-bombed. Today while taking a break from updating Concise World Armies, we surfed around and found an article that said the US was aware of the possibility the Japanese would not surrender despite the A-bombs. But – something we didn’t know – was rapidly accumulating fissile material and would have had enough for 20 bombs into 1946. The plan was to use the weapons tactically in support of an invasion. Editor is sorry he did not note the reference.
• By the way, Editor recalls decades ago reading a paper in a Harvard journal (International Security) about recently declassified documents which discussed a plan in 1948 or 1949 to nuke the USSR. It was well recognized that the existential threat posed by Hitler had been replaced by one posed by Stalin. Soviets were known to be working on N-weapons, and the thought was, best to get this over with while US could. Well, the reason this plan was dropped was because after the war, the US essentially stopped production of the darn weapons. There didn’t seem any reason to make more of them. Readers will also remember the US had offered atomic disarmament if everyone else went along with it – Baruch Plan, which Moscow rejected. So the US didn’t have but a few of the things, and all it needed was one look at the size of the Soviet Union to realize A-bombing USSR wouldn’t achieve the objective of crippling that country.
• Some minor good news from Eurozone Spanish 10-year yields fell to 5.05 from 6.78% a month ago, and Italian 10-year yields fell to their lowest in almost 2-months, at 4.91%.
• We’re not all that impressed because the market gets spooked at the smallest thing. There’s a lot of irrationality at work. For example, there is no reason at all for Spain to be in trouble. And also there’s some hang-up on the Greek plan.
• Is it goodbye, Mr. Keynes? Someone was patiently explaining to us that when Keynes came up with his ideas, governments had small public debts and private global funds did not have any influence on the market. And there was no such thing as the colossal private debt overhang we have today. So governments could stimulate the economy by spending.
• We are sorry to say our eyes glazed over and we did not hear the rest of the scholarly exposition. It’s become obvious to most rational people that no one has an easy answer. That being the case, we’re not interested in the theology of the thing. And theology is what is under discussion, or at least theology in the guise of economics.
• Reader Luxembourg sent a story about a teacher in California who retired after 40-years on a pension of $170,000/year. Dang. Why is Editor always in the wrong place? In Maryland, public servants including teachers pay in 6%, and after about 30 years get 1/3^rd of the average of their last three years of service. Also, teachers get no steps after 20-years: you get a cost of living increase and that’s it.
• See, folks, if some state has made some absurd promises to its employees, obviously the pension has to be cut back. But in states where the employees have paid their fair share, its wrong for a state to say “oh well, we haven’t been paying in our share so too bad for you.” Even the staunchest conservative would be upset if after paying their social security taxes to the government the government turns around and says: “Sorry, we mismanaged our share of the contribution so you’re going to lose.”
• And no – please – lets not get into this “this is why all pensions should be privatized” business. We have plenty of evidence how easily the private sector can get out of its obligations – just declare bankruptcy. It honestly is time Americans on both sides talked about what will work, not go on and on about ideological purity. We’re in this mess because we stopped being practical. The solution is not to get even less practical.

0230 GMT December 20, 2011

• Just by the way here’s another perspective on why America had to use the A-Bomb against Japan. http://hnn.us/articles/52353.html The article is from a scholarly source, George Mason’s University. It notes than of America’s 1.25-million casualties in World War II, one million were suffered in the year between June 1944 and June 1945. We may assume American war planners were not in a kind, soft-hearted mood about the enemy, German or Japanese, and the last thing on their mind was how to save the enemy’s lives. Rather, their minds would have been focused on getting the war over with as soon as possible. American strategists had seen how the Japanese were prepared to fight to the very last. Given the ferocity with they defended their positions in the Pacific, there was not one reason to believe they would defend their home islands any less ferociously. And among many other factors, American suddenly realized Japan had not 3.5-million defenders left, but seven million.
• The article makes clear that the issue of casualties was thoroughly debated at the highest levels by experts, contrary to what revisionist historians have maintained.
• Our position is that it’s fine after the war to sit and endlessly debate how we could have done this or done that, anything but use the A-Bombs. What no one has explained is why America’s leaders should NOT have used every weapon at their disposal. How precisely were America’s leaders to have told the country: “We have a weapon we think can end the war immediately, but we’ve decided not to use it because we think it’s immoral.”  How precisely was the use of the A-bombs immoral? It is possible to argue that their use was far more humane than the saturation bombing of Japanese cities we were undertaking.
• It is said we could have blockaded Japan and brought the war to an end and there was no need to invade. No insult intended to the undoubtedly sincere revisionists, but this is crazy thinking. It is backward thinking: having decided the A-bombs were immoral, the revisionists look for ways to win the war without the bombs.
• But who responsible for making decisions at the time thought the bombs were immoral? Sure, some of the scientists who witnessed the test wondered what they had unleashed. But surely there were scientists who, seeing the destruction conventional bombing was wrecking on Japan and Germany who wondered what they had unleashed.  Doubts are natural. That does not mean decision makers responsible to their people for ending the war as efficiently as possible should get into existential tangles.
•  And we argue the bombs were NOT immoral. The war ended ten days after they were used. No other justification for their use is needed.
• Recently a Japanese man who survived one of the bombings and who became an ambassador for peace died. In his obituary, it was noted how he had met Col. Paul Tibbets, and said that he saw a tear roll down the pilot’s cheek. The story also noted that when Tibbets was told that, he told a friend nothing of the sort happened. He said he was sorry that the Japanese burned, but he had to do what he had to do.
• And there’s nothing more to be said. America did what it had to do. Had the Germans developed the bomb first, they would have used it – on London, if necessary. If the Japanese had developed it first, they would have used. There’s no morality involved.
• Incidentally, today we learned something interesting Editor has always maintained that those who say it was racism to use the bomb against Japan and we’d never have used it against Germany are plain wrong. Americans who say that don’t understand their own people. For the first time, however, we have proof of this assertion. Read this article http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2002/aug/06/nuclear.japan in which Studs Terkel interviews Tibbets.
• Tibbets told Terkel in 2002 that the US was training for a simultaneous drop of bombs on Germany and Japan.
• And equally interesting, Tibbets says that when there was no reaction from the Japanese after the second bombing, General Curtis Le May called him to ask if there was a third bomb. Tibbets said there was in, in Utah. Le May told him to get it because Tibbets was going to make another run. Tibbets said they got the bomb to California, from where they would fly to Tinian, and the war ended.
• Think about that for a minute. No orders from the President, the Joint Chiefs, or whatever. Curtis Le May, head of 21^st Bomber Command, quite junior in the scheme of things, calls one of his group commanders to ask if there’s a third bomb. Tibbets says yes. Le May tells him to bring it over. Tibbets is in the process of doing that when the war ends. Of course one can doubt that Le May would have sent Tibbets out again without getting clearance. But if this story is not a big “Whoa!”, what is.
• The History Learning site (UK) reminds us that the bombing of Tokyo March 9-10, 1945, killed as many as 100,000 people. This what Le May had to say about his role in the war: "Killing Japanese didn't bother me very much at the time....I suppose if I had lost the war, I would have been tried as a war criminal....every soldier thinks something of the moral aspects of what he is doing. But all war is immoral and if you let that bother you, you're not a good soldier."  http://www.historylearningsite.co.uk/curtis_lemay.htm
• “All war is immoral”. We can respect the pacifist who takes the next step and says “I will not kill, regardless of the provocation.” We cannot respect those who suddenly draw a line – after the event – and say: “using the A-bombs was immoral.”
• We leave readers with a thought. What if the third bomb had been dropped, worked, but the Japanese still refused to surrender?

0230 GMT December 19, 2011

• Egyptian Army drops all pretense of being “for the people” The brutality with which the Egyptian Army is attacking demonstrators makes it clear the Egyptian Army isn’t for anyone except itself. The Army’s expectation – and that of some people in Washington who should know better – is that the Muslim Brotherhood, having won the elections, has no interest in joining the demonstrators. So the demonstrators can be suppressed.
• We’re all neurotic, more or less; the real test of sanity is psychosis, where your reality fundamentally differs from reality. The Egyptian Army is well on its way to becoming psychotic, because where in the world do they get the idea the Brotherhood will be content to sham rule Egypt while the Army maintains real power? Editor can agree the Brotherhood has no interest in the demonstrations. Who, after all, wants to come out into the streets when in a little while they will be the government? Once that happens, however, the Brotherhood will take control over all the non-military instruments of power including the security and finance apparatus, and there should be no doubt in anyone’s mind that the Brotherhood will then move against the Army.
• Washington has so many problems to deal with that for once we do not feel we should criticize its catatonic Eyes Wide Shut response to the Egyptian Army’s crackdown. Most of Washington just wants the problem – and about five hundred other problems – to just go away. There is a limit to how many crises even Washington, with its immense energy and relentless push to create more problems, can take.
• Nonetheless – and we will limit ourselves to saying just this – it is unseemly that Washington has not told the generals to back off or face sanctions. Some will tell you that Washington has indeed done this. Unfortunately, all Washington has done is threaten to beat the generals with a limp flower, and not every hour either, but solely when there is a conjunction of all nine planets in our solar system. People since 1776 have looked to America to support the right of self-determination. Call us impossibly idealistic, but we really do expect Washington to appreciate the Declaration of Independence and the Bill of Rights applies to all humans, not just to those fortunate to have been born by accident in this country.
• From a person we often ask what’s going on with political America and whose analyses we have learned to trust. “As matters stand right now, with the caveat that things can dramatically change in a short while, 2013-2016 will be a repeat of 2009-2016. The next president will be Mr. Obama, and he may get even less done in his second term than he got done in his first, if that is possible to imagine. The Democrats will continue control of the Senate, but still not have enough seats to defeat filibusters. The GOP will continue control of the House, though with a reduced margin. Americans will continue holding Congress in contempt, but will still not understand what they can do to change things. Vested interests of every kind will continue to rule, and corruption will reach even higher levels. After the effects of the coming recession wear off, growth will resume, but because there is no political agreement on how America should be run, real growth will barely keep ahead of population growth. The rich will continue to get richer, the middle class to shrink, and the poor will grow poorer. America’s standing in the world will continue to fall, even as every rational nation will remain wary of American’s enormous capacity to impose military harm should we get into a bad mood. In other words, same-old, same-old.”
• Bradley Manning’s defense: he was confused about his sexuality The Wikileaker had an alter-ego, “Breanna”.
• You know, we feel for Breanna. When it comes to alter-ego, Walter Mitty had nothing on your Editor, though admittedly Editor’s alter-egos do not include a “Ravini”. That’s clearly a serious shortcoming in the Editor’s character. He defends himself by saying he’s never claimed to be perfect.
• But whatever we feel, we do not think the military court is going to be moved. From the court’s viewpoint, there are but two questions. One, is Manning guilty as charged. It appears his defense has no hope of avoiding a guilty verdict. Two, if guilty, what is to be his sentence. Clearly the defense is aiming at mitigating the sentence.
• Manning cuts such a pathetic, unsoldierly picture that a person’s first thought has to be: Gosh, the US Army has to be very seriously desperate to recruit a person like him. His appearance and this Breanna thing could go either of two ways with the judge. He could laugh at the Breanna thing (to himself) and say this man is a lost soul, instead of giving him 30-years in Levenworth I’ll give him 22. Or the judge could get totally put off and give Manning 30-years.
• We may be way off base, but we don’t think he’s going to get more than 30. After all, this is not like the CIA moles whose actions cost lives.
• Anyway, good luck, Breanna, from your friend, er, Ravini. Next time try not to betray your country because you want to dress  up in frills and lace and make-up, will ya?

0230 GMT December 18, 2011

• Is there an organization more irritating than the US Army? Updating the US Army has to be the most unrewarding task of any in the orbat business because you have miles and miles worth of every type of unit except  combat units. This year, reader Ryan Opel is helping so Editor is feeling less imposed on. But then he’s reviewing US Army Europe, and what do we see? Four rather anemic combat brigades, and among the supporting arms: 4 MP, 5 Military Intelligence, and nine signals battalions. Come on, people, how can you have 18 of just three types of supporting arms for four combat brigades? Why do we need  nine signals battalions? What are the four MP battalions doing? And five MI battalions? US needs to cut back on these supporters and get at least three more combat brigades with the manpower.
• Yes, we’re familiar with the argument that if needed the US will reinforce Europe so these support troops are needed. But there’s a gazillion support battalions in the reserves too.
• Editor just updated the Marine Corps entry, and with the orders to cut 15,000 troops, the first thing the Marines are doing is deactivating three infantry battalions. So you’re going to have a 187,000 Marine Corps with 24 infantry battalions. The reasoning is that, well, you can always quickly train up more infantry if needed.
• Sorry, folks, this is Grade A Inane. Who do the Marines and Army think does the fighting? The support battalions? No, it’s the infantry, the armor, the artillery. So where do you need the best trained and most experienced troops? Not in support functions.  Does the military think the job of a rifleman or machine gunner is so simple you can give someone 90 days training and that’s adequate? You need at least two years – you heard us, general – two years to train combat troops. If you don’t do that, you’re sending half-trained boys to get killed. Anyone remember Vietnam? Why do you think the casualties were so high? Well, yes, we know the VC Main Force and NVA were superb troops. We know the generals thought they were fighting World War II. But it was also because you had hundreds of thousands of clueless kids thrown into battle. And then, of course, the ones that made it through alive one way or another, who were now experienced, we sent home to replace with another bunch of tyros.
• For this the generals get paid?
• Oh, but, Mr. Editor, you don’t understand, numbers don’t wind wars, its synergy and intelligence, and logistics, and blah and blah. Balderdash. Rot. Feeble minds. There is no substitute for combat numbers. We’ve spent ten years in Afghanistan and are coming home after eight in Iraq and we haven’t understood that?
• Oh, but, Mr. Editor, you don’t understand, we aren’t going to fight those kinds of wars anymore. We fight smart, not numbers. Look at our fantastic intelligence fusion, for example.
• Aaaaaannnnnd? Did your fantastic intelligence fusion help you stop the flow of insurgents from Pakistan into Afghanistan? Were we winning in Iraq before we sent in the big divisions? For heaven’s sake people, Iraq and Afghanistan are not pre-history – they’re today. Why do we refuse to learn lessons from the wars we are fighting today?
• And as for not fighting those kinds of wars: we seem to recall the giant genius military minds telling us we weren’t going to fight any more counter-insurgencies any more, after Vietnam. Then we spent a decade fighting two wars that were – hold your breath – counterinsurgencies.
• What do our generals think wars are? Like a buffet, chose which one you want and decline the one you don’t want? People, you don’t choose your wars. Your wars choose you. You fight the war the enemy brings to you.
• And in any case, what is this butt-backward thinking: we don’t like counter-insurgency, so we won’t do it – how does that make any sense at all? No one asked you what you like or don’t like, sir and (now) madam general.
• Someone needs to smack a lot of heads with skillets. Make that anvils: our generals have pretty hard heads. And each time they are smacked, we need to say loudly: “Numbers. Numbers. Numbers.”
• All praise to Saint Steve? Yesterday we came across a news article saying the chip for Apple’s new phone is to be made in – get this – Texas. Yes, Samsung has invested $3.6-billion in a new fabrication line for the chip. One thousand Americans will be employed. That’s a whacking great $3.6-million for each job created, by the way, something we do need to discuss but not today. Of course, we don’t doubt for a moment the jobs will be as badly paid as Samsung can get away with. But at least a thousand more people will have manufacturing jobs.
• Does this mean we’ve forgiven Steve Jobs for shipping heaven knows how many jobs to Foxconn in China? No, we haven’t. You’d have to show us evidence that Steve actually stopped gazing at his navel long enough to say: “Gee, I must do something for America, let me work with Samsung and get a fab-facility put up in the US.” We doubt Steve Jobs gave the matter another thought, and if Samsung had said “But you’ll have to pay $5 a phone more”, Steve would have shot that down very rapidly.
• Government subsidies for energy We learn that the science and technology for fracking has been heavily subsidized by the government for decades. Without these subsidies, it is unlikely private industry would have been able to afford to develop the technology, particularly when gas prices were low.
• We discussed this with someone who knows a bit about these things. Their response: “No one in their right mind denies government has a role in basic/fundamental research, perhaps even in some kinds of applied research. Nuclear power would never have gotten anywhere but for government-funded R & D.  You wouldn’t have an internet but for the government. Satellites are another example. What people are objecting to is government trying to pick winners by giving money for manufacturing facilities such as happened with Solyndra. Picking winner and losers is not something bureaucrats do well. That’s the job of the market.”
• Fair enough, we said, except you can’t say the market is much good at picking winners and losers, either. Look at the airlines mess, which has been going on for decades. The airlines just keep losing money, decade after decade.
• The response: “Accepted. But the government has to be held to a higher standard because the government appropriates your money, backed by the very real threat of throwing you in jail if you don’t hand over your money. Then when the government messes up by deciding who it will invest with, it’s not a decision YOU took, but you pay the price. It’s your choice to invest – or not – in the airlines. You didn’t have a choice when the government invested in Solyndra.”
• We had to concede the point. And that’s a few hundred million now not available for R and D. So we, the people, lose twice.

0230 GMT December 17, 2011

• The Hidden Story Behind The Battle To Save the Euro There are two types of people in the world. One, the insiders, which is the 0.01%. The other is the dofuses like you and me, who are the remaining 99.99%.
• When it comes to military matters, while the Editor is no insiders, having religiously studied the issues since age 14, Editor has sufficient knowledge that he can still fairly well tell what’s going on. But since Editor is not an international banker, he doesn’t know any inside stories about stuff like the Euro.
• Business Week to the rescue. In its December 19-26, 2011 issue, BW tells us that Germany has lent $650-billion  to the European Central Bank, even while proclaiming to the world that no slacker country is going to get a pfenning unless it agree to German Fiscal Discipline, which is so tough it makes the Prussian Army look like a bunch of part-time actors for the annual Nutcracker ballet performance. Business Week figured this out by analyzing reams of documents, because no where can you find the information stated as simply as an entry is Angela Merkel’s diary saying: “Lent $650-billion to ECB today. Boooorrriiiinggg. Uhlrich still refusing to throw away his much-too-worn slippers he has owned since the Berlin Wall went up. I threw them out, and he chased the garbage disposal truck for five kilometers to get them back. Can the Iranians be tricked into making a nuclear strike against his slippers? Because frankly, that’s what it is going to take to get rid of them.”
• Now, if you didn’t know Germany has given ECB that money, in proportion to GDP which is like US investing $3-trillion in the ECB, you wouldn’t know that regardless of what Chancellor Merkel is saying to the world, she can’t afford to let the Euro go down the drain. Any more than US Fed can afford to let $3-tril go down the drain. Changes things, no?
• This little piece of information, available to insiders, makes a lot of difference not just to the Euro story, it shows in stark form why capitalism does not work as it should.
• Hold the horses, people When we say capitalism does not work as it should, we are not then advocating some other economic system. Remember, we’ve said this many times: capitalism, like democracy, is the worst thing – till you are faced with the alternatives. All we’re saying is: capitalism depends on a free flow of information because without equal access to information, you and I cannot make the sort of informed decisions the insiders can. The market cannot function. People with inside information distort the market to their advantage, which is why John Paulson takes homer $6-billion/year or whatever he’s doing these days, whereas you and I look at our paychecks and have a tough debate on if we are going to pay that Washington DC parking ticket or buy a Brazilian grape.
• According to your Editor, if Government has a role in economic matters, it should not be to regulate, because if you allow the government to regulate, the insiders with their big $$$$ pay off Congress to set up regulations that favor the insiders. Government’s role should be to level the playing field by providing information to everyone. Information transparency. Now, of course when the government issues a daily sheet of information with 100-million variables on it, the aforesaid John Paulson is in a much better position to sort out what it means than, say, Bozo the Clown. Because JP has spent his lifetime sorting out figures and BC has not. There’s nothing wrong with JP benefiting from his greater experience and more diligent study. [Strictly speaking, what we should say is that JP will be able to afford to hire 1000 top B-School grads to figure out the data whereas Bozo will think that B-School is where bees go to learn their ABCs. But you get our drift.]
• But wait, you will say. What’s to stop the big $$$ people from influencing the government to give them the data first? That is easily taken care of. When discovered, the government people can be sent to jail. That won’t end all malfeasance, but it will certainly deter a lot of government people.
• Disclaimer Please do not take this story as a reason to rush out and buy Euros. The way this stuff works, if Business Week is selling that information to Editor as part of his teacher subscription of $30/year, it’s likely already outdated.
• Talking of Business Week, which is now owned by Bloomberg Remember the other day Bloomberg revealed that the US Fed had given $7.5-trillion to banks, including foreign banks, without telling anyone, to stabilize the global banking system? Well, US Fed says hogwash. The sum was $1.5-trillion, and was repaid. Yes, it went to foreign banks as well as American ones. But that’s because foreign banks hold  American private and government debt.; If there is a Euro bailout, American banks will benefit because they hold private and public Euro debt.
• So is the $7.5-trillion figure invented by Bloomberg? No. US Fed said it would make that money available if needed as a way of telling the world’s speculators: don’t think you can bet against us and win. We’ll print enough dollars to choke you and anyone else who thinks they can deft us, and you’ll be begging for change on Wall Street.
• Fair enough, but we STILL object to what the Fed did It’s that same question all the little people are asking: Why did the banks get bailed out and not us? The Fed says if credit had frozen business would have come to a standstill. But business still did not hire those it had fired because there was no demand. So it didn’t matter the banks were liquid. There is a much more logical case to be made for lending every American $5000, man, woman, child (equals $1.5-trillion) using deferred taxes. People would have spent that money, stimulating demand and getting people hired again. The money could have been recovered over 10 years or whatever so that it didn’t add to the national debt.
• More discussion on the Iranian drone It’s fair to call it the Iranian drone, because President Obama asked for it back, nicely, and the Iranians told him to take a running jump. (Actually they were a lot more rude than that.) Since we say it strayed off-course, technically it got lost and the Iranians found it. Finders keepers, losers weepers, and all that.
• Reader Chris Raggio has been following the story and discussed with us the Iranian claim that they took over the drone’s GPS unit, and told it to land. Some experts have said well, yes, that’s possible to do. But we don’t like this explanation for a variety of reasons.
• First, it seems an opportunistic explanation based on news stories that Hezbollah or whoever hacked US drones using parts they got from a Radio Shack or whatever. US said yes, the baddies had hacked into the system, but couldn’t do anything after that, so they are none the wiser.
• Second, the GPS signals you and I use are not encrypted. But military GPS is encrypted, and you have to bust that encryption – which still doesn’t mean you can take control.
• Third, where’s the drone’s undercarriage? No sign of any undercarriage. This means it did not land normally, whatever happened the undercarriage got totaled. That, and the crazy welds make the US story of a crash more plausible, though of course you can say the Iranian could have welded the undercarriage together. That doesn’t explain why they haven’t done that. Plus there’s the other stuff like some experts saying it’s the wrong color and so on. And you can see that, why would the US have coated the drone white?
• Fourth, if this is indeed a stealth drone, how come the Iranians saw it, and at night too, when the stealth stuff flies?
• That said, we have a general observation and a major gripe. The general observation is: has anyone seen an RB-170 in the first place? Bill Sweetman, the renowned aircraft identifying person, deduced from pictures taken of a strange drone flying out of Kandhar it was an RB-170. But honesty, as far as Editor knows, no one knows. If you have some familiarity with US black programs, there’s a case to be made that no one knows if there is something called the RB-170 in the first place, or if the US is just using that as a cover for something else.
• As a simple example of what we mean, go back to the F-117. It was revealed to the world at some point in the 1980s. But as of 1963 the US changed its aircraft designation system, starting over in a sense, with the A-1, A-3, A-4, A-5, A-6, F-4, F-5, F-8 and so on.
• [Well does the Editor remember that because he had to sit and memorize all the new designations. It’s always annoying when your previous body of knowledge becomes irrelevant, because you can’t show off till you’ve mastered the new body of knowledge. Of course, the new system was so simple and logical it was a huge relief. It’s hard to think of anything the US military has done since then that was as sensible. Or is Editor revealing his true age by saying that?]
• The 100s designations are from the 1950s – F-100, F-101, F-102, F-104, F-105, F-106 and so on and so forth. Now either you say this plane was originally developed in the 1950s and remained a closely guarded secret till the 1980s – by which time it would be obsolete – or the US for reasons of its own applied an obsolete designation to a new fighter.
• There is no law that says the US has to tell the truth regarding national security. So you lose a drone, say one of your least advanced. Someone says “ooooh, I know, teacher, it was over Iran so it has to be an RB-170 because US would only fly its best over Iran.” Then the US Government mumbles – the usual sources – oh yeah, embarrassing as heck and all that, but it was an RB-170.” Meanwhile Iranians are looking at something that has nothing advanced about it, and saying “gosh, this encryption is really hard to crack whereas the thing has no encryption at all – just an example.
• True, you could equally say the US lost something very advanced, and is saying its an RB-170 because the RB-170 is on the verge of obsolescence.
• The gripe comes because we don’t care if the drone was the private property of an enthusiastic soldier who likes to put together radio-controlled airplanes, or something equally insignificant. You do NOT let Iran have it. You bomb it just on general principle.
• And what is this business of (a) President Obama asking for the drone back, and (b) SecDef Panetta saying that had to be done? Why did it have to be done? Is the US going to sue Iran for the return of its property or something equally stupid?
• The reason you play tough is that it saves trouble later. Remember the Iranians let the hostages go when Reagan was elected president. “Him heap crazy” the Iranians said. Actually, Reagan did not take national security risks. He was not crazy. He just cultivated the persona of a crazy cowboy. It worked with Iran. Many believe it was responsible for finally getting the Soviets to understand they couldn’t win against the US.
• President Obama is coming across as J. Carter, Esquire. Not a good idea when dealing with Iran

0230 GMT December 16, 2011

We forgot to mention yesterday in connection with the story about the universe as a video game: That idea comes up a lot, but we think Brian Greene in “The Hidden Reality” explains it best.

• Can the Giant Genius Minds of America explain to us again how messed up the Europeans are and by implication how great we are? Editor needs this explanation because once again – for what must be about the fifth or sixth time this year, who keeps count – the US Government is in danger of shutting down for lack of funds. Here it is three months into Fiscal 2012, and we don’t have a budget. Clearly Editor’s understanding of how completely ignorant the Europeans are compared to us is faulty, but is there ANY government in the entire world – and we’re including Zimbabwe as part of the world – that threatens to shut down every 2-3 months and seems to go years without a budget?
• Editor thinks we need to change our national anthem to “Yes, we have no bananas today”. A Banana Republic at least has bananas. We aren’t a Banana Republic because yes, we have no bananas today. We have Looney Tuners in abundance, though. They’re called the US Congress.
• If Congress doesn’t want to do its job, there’s a simple solution. Don’t pay them.
• Oh wait – we forgot members of Congress are public servants. So as the GOP keeps telling us, public servants get paid even though they do no work. So we can’t single out Congress, including its GOP members, for punitive stuff like withholding paychecks.
• Obviously there is a case here for paying GOP members of Congress $1-quadrillion each – every hour – because the GOP is the party of the job creaters. Instead of paying tax on that $1-quadrillion per hour, we, the grateful people of America, should sell our wives and sons to the Chinese and use the money to give tax credits to the GOP members so they can create even more jobs.
• Sorry, ladies, we are not being sexist: the Chinese will buy American women and boy children, but not American men and girl children. It’s called globalization…excuse us a minute, we’ve got mail…
• “Dear Editor, how can you forget that American women can sell their husbands to the Iranians? I think you ARE being sexist because there is no way you don’t know that. Regards, Caitlin Duffy.”
• Okay, we did know that, but subconsciously “forgot”, so we guess we remain sexist despite years of trying to do the right thing. Correct: we can sell American men to Iran and use the money to give even more tax credits to the GOP congresspersons for creating even more jobs. Too bad the jobs will be on Kepler 22b, the newly-discovered planet a few quadrillion kilometers away.
• Democratic congresspersons obviously get lumps of coal, because what jobs have they created, huh, huh? Here’s a slogan for when you go and demonstrate against Democratic members of Congress: “Two, Four, Six, Eight, Who Is It We Love To Hate? Jobkillers, jobkillers! One, Three, Five, Seven, and Nine, Wont America Be Just So Fine, After We Kill the Jobkillers, Jobkillers!”…. Excuse us, we’ve got mail again…
• “Dear Editor, clearly you are about to disrespect President Obama next. Let me make clear I will not stand for that. If you say one word against President Obama, I personally will date you this Saturday. FYI, I am the Telephone Pole Tossing Champion of Beedle-Deedle, Iowa. Since you weigh more than a telephone pole, are twice as ugly, and three times less intelligent, I look forward to setting a new record tossing you from Takoma Park, Maryland to National Airport. Regards, Caitlin Duffy.”
• Caitlain Duffy, you misunderstand the Editor. He was just about to say that President Obama is – er – so intelligent, charismatic, good-looking, and witty, that he does not deserve to be President of this scruffy little republic we call the US of A. Yes, that is why Editor is proposing Mr. Obama be elected the president of Kepler 22b. Love to be dated by you, but we don’t know who told you Editor lives in Takoma Park, Maryland. He resides at 39 Degrees North, 125 Degrees and 25 Minutes East. Till next Saturday…

0230 GMT December 15, 2011

Butter in Norway reaches $900/kilo: Is the world about to end?

• Reader Luxembourg keeps a sharp look for out-of-the-way news and sends on a bunch of URLs each evening. This is what he sent yesterday: butter has reached $900/kilo in Norway. Something to do with the summer being more dry (or was it more wet) and the fodder being not the right sort to get the maximum milk production; combined with the Norwegians have gone crazy trying to lead healthy lives and have decided to stuff themselves with any dish that requires huge amounts of butter; combined with Norwegian customs regulations on butter imports. So it is not as simple a matter as filling up a few 747 freighters with 100-tons of butter each and sending them over to Oslo. Indeed, an enterprising Russian was arrested for bringing in 90-kilos of butter in his car from Sweden. We thought there were no customs regs in the EU, but what do we know.
• The above is the OFFICIAL explanation of why butter went to $900/kg ($400/pound) in Norway. But there could be another explanation.
• Some cosmologists argue there is evidence the universe is being run as a game inside a computer. How would we know if this is true? One way is that one day the numbers just don’t add up anymore.
• Now, a bit of basic high school math here. The set of irrational numbers is very much larger than the set of rationals. Irrationals are numbers with non-repeating, non-terminating decimals. The square root of 2, or 3, or 5 etc. is an irrational. So as a practical matter, engineers etc are continually having to round numbers. Well, you keep on rounding and one day you are going to get an error. That’s why you have those caveats in tables with figures given as percentages which warn: “Due to rounding numbers will not sum to 100%”.
• For practical purposes, that’s fine. But you can see that the rounding error will keep building up. And one day instead of 100, you will get 99 or 101. Suppose now that that error is in something critical, say a part of the computer program that determines gravity and water starts flowing uphill. You’d notice that, one assumes.
• Let’s take a less drastic example. Butter reaching $900/kilo in Norway, is that a sign that rounding errors in the computer program are starting to give totally absurd results?
• Now assume you are the Super Geek middle-school girl who is running the program that is our universe. What do you do? You can either let the water run uphill, at which point something else goes wrong which causes something else to go wrong, and of a sudden your Sims all turn into flying purple elephants, and you hate flying purple elephants. So you have to reboot your universe.
• So Super Geek Girl goes CTRL-ALT-DEL and while the universe is resetting she checks her I-Phone to see why her order for Ugg boots she paid $150 for hasn’t arrived (or the equivalent of Ugg boots, in the Super Geek’s universe), but as for you and me, its light out, game over.
• So what we are suggesting is that it is possible – if the cosmologists who postulate we live in a computer game are right – that $900/kilo butter in Norway may be a sign the computer game is coming apart.
• The good news: when Super Geek Girl reboots, you won’t feel a thing. You will just cease to exist, and the universe with you. You won’t even know you are dead.
• The bad news: Your Ugg boots that you paid $150 for are never going to arrive.

The news

• The butter crisis is explained at  http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/dec/14/norwegian-butter-crisis-shortage-christmas
• Meanwhile, we offer this quote without elaboration – nothing we say could possibly do justice to the quote: “"I need butter today to make my lussekatt buns and my Christmas biscuits," grumbled one elderly Norwegian."I brought up my four children under German occupation but this is nothing like that."
• Theatre of the Absurd 1 The other day we mentioned a report by the EPA that said it had found a case of water contamination caused by fracking. We took it at face value, and concluded yes, contamination will occur if things are not done properly, but that’s no reason to stop. Every day people die in car accidents, we don’t ban cars.
• But it turns out that the EPA found contamination because it drilled two wells well past the water level and straight into the natural gas reservoir underneath. So yes, EPA found natural gas, but the gas was where it should be. It also turns out there have been complaints about the water quality in the area since – er – 1880. http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2011/12/14/Tainted-EPA-Report-on-Fracking-Blasted-by-Gas-Co.aspx
• Theatre of the Absurd 2 It’s probably not a good idea to read the Washington Post’s Letters to the Editor at 5:30 in the morning, but it can put one in a bit of a grouchy mood and that’s not a nice way to start the day when you have to deal with 150 hormone-charged adolescents with as much control of themselves as starving piranha encountering a drowning person. (Or as much control as the Editor exhibits on seeing a bar of chocolate, if you prefer that analogy.) Today was a doozy.
• To explain, US Government has refused permission to pharmacies to sell a post-de-facto birth control pill to girls younger than 17 without parental/guardian permission. We aren’t going to get into the debate about the government’s reasoning. But several self-appointed advocates for the rights of “women” are disappointed. Calling girls younger than 17 – which is to day they are 16 or less – “women” is a little device used to obscure the issue of if society should okay the sale of such contraceptives to the aforesaid girls. Obviously you will not deny a woman the right to decide on contraceptive, whereas you might have problems letting your 8^th Grader or 9^th Grader just walking into CVS by herself and picking the contraceptive off the shelf along with the chewing gum. But: that is another debate altogether.
• One person wrote in to say she was disappointed in the Government’s decision. What if a 15-year old girl was raped by her parent/guardian and the police refused to take her seriously? Without anyone over 17 to buy the contraceptive for her, she could get pregnant.  If you think we are making this up, go to December 14, 2011’s Washington Post, Letters to the Editor.
• This is a great example of how we in America reason. Yes, there is a mathematically finite chance that the scenario could happen. But does that chance offset all the other reasons for not allowing girls under 17 to buy the contraceptive off the shelf? Why can we no longer accept that every decision, every course of action, has pros and cons. It is our job as informed citizens to see where the balance lies. We cannot take extreme scenarios as an excuse to overlook all the cons in this particular case.
• If one wants to be absurd, how about this: the contraceptive costs $10-$70. Is it beyond the realm of possibility that the hypothetical 15-year old does not have $10-$70 to pay for the contraceptive? Is this not denying her rights? So should we make this contraceptive free? Now, a 15-year old girl may well have serious emotional reservations about walking into a CVS, picking up this contraceptive in full view of customers and staff, and then walking to the checkout to pay for it. So should we install vending machines in our schools where for a nickel the 15-year old can get the contraceptive? To spare her embarrassment, we’d have to carry the contraceptive in the candy machine labeled as chewing gum. After all, we don’t want someone else seeing her and then splashing the information all over Facebook.

·         What we suggest to this letter writer is to calm down for a minute. First, how likely is it the 15-year old does not know a girl over 17 who can get the contraceptive for her? Second, the letter writer has a very strange conception of how the police work. If a 15-year old walked into a station to say she had been raped by her parent/guardian, absolutely the last thing that would happen in real life is the cops rolling on the floor laughing saying “You are such a kidder!”

0230 GMT December 14, 2011

• The US-Iraq Divorce is final: Can we move on please? There are parts of the American power elite that are having a nervous breakdown because Iraq has quit us (ha ha) and they can’t get over it. We keep reading criticism of the Administration because Mr. Obama, after he was told Iraq didn’t want us any more, responded with: “Oh, okay then, it’s been real”. We get all sorts of learned analyses saying how important it is the US do this, that, and the other in Iraq, and we have this, that, and the other vital interest that must be secured.
• Let’s pull back a bit. Did we or did we not say we invaded Iraq to make it a democratic state? Did we or did we not succeed? And did Iraq, or did Iraq not tell us: “Our Parliament wants you to go now, so goodbye and thanks for the fish”?
• So what’s our problem? That the Iranians handed us our papers is absolute proof of our contention that we did not go to Iraq to make it our colony. By withdrawing its troops – as required by Iraq – US has completely, totally, confounded all those who said we had come as occupiers. “Those” included not just a good proportion of Americans, but just about the rest of the world too. We kept our word.
• Why now do many people want us to pressure Iraq to let us stay in one way or another? Aside from the unseemly nature of this premise, is it going to occur to any of these characters that we really have no leverage with Iraq? There is nothing we have the Iraqis want badly enough they will compromise their sovereignty.
• Weapons? People, people. With the amount of hard cash Iraq throw off every day – something like $120-million – Iraq could give a hoot if we refuse to sell it weapons. Every government is just waiting to get into the game and to supply weapons without strings. American protection? But against whom? Who is threatening Iraq? It isn’t Iran, because Iraq and Iran are natural allies. If this bothers Washington, sorry, but Washington should have figured this out before it overthrew Saddam.
• The people who threaten Iraq are America’s friends, starting with the Mideast Sunni regimes. Iraq is deeply threatened by our push to get Assad of Syria out, because Iraq does not want a Sunni-majority regime on yet another border. So unless we’re willing to defend Iraq against our friends, we and the Iraqis have nothing to talk about security wise.
• Prevent Iraq from descending into chaos because of sectarianism? Of all the reason we give why we should stay on in Iraq, this has to be the silliest.  Hasn’t Washington figured Iraq is quite happy to have an excuse to ethnically cleanse the country of Sunnis? It’s a priority for the Iraqis, payback for four centuries of oppression by the Sunnis. There will be no chaos: the Shias will simply kill those Sunnis who don’t flee. The only way the Sunnis can avoid this fate is to accept they are now going to be the oppressed and not make waves by insisting on their rights.
• Further, the “we can’t leave” group in Washington has not been paying to attention to something Iraq is saying. Iraq wants to produce 12-million-barrels/day of oil. And it can, given the time needed to go from 2.5-million to 12-million. At today’s prices, Iraq will take $1-billion every day. And guess what? Iraq will tell us what to do, and not the other way around. We will kiss Iraq butt, just as we kiss Saudi butt, and what’s more, we will insist that Iraqi butt is the best we’ve ever kissed.
• Iraq plans on dominating the Middle East – remember that’s was Saddam wanted to do, and just because he’s gone doesn’t mean Iraq doesn’t have its national dreams. Like Persia, Iraq is also the site of ancient empires, and we’d be truly, stupidly blind not to realize this “we will return to the glorious past” business really means something to the Iraqis.
• When your spouse tells you to get out, and you don’t have any way to get her/him to change her/his mind, you have two alternatives. One is to rave, rant, threaten, fantasize revenge, develop an exaggerated sense of your importance, make a nuisance of yourself till finally the spouse calls the police to have you removed and gets a restraining order.
• The other alternative is to say “Oh, okay, well then, it’s been real” and push off with your dignity intact. President Obama has done a boatload of incredibly stupid things, though even he has not been as dumb as Mr. Bush who got us into two completely pointless wars.  In the case of Iraq, however, Mr. Obama is taking the dignified way out. He has no choice. America has no choice. Then you may as well look dignified as you exit.

0230 GMT December 13, 2011

Aviation Week on the US drone    http://tinyurl.com/7jnqvmg Apparently no one is panicked.

• Iranian MP claims Army will stage exercises to close Hormuz See, it’s not for the world to restrain the Iranians from doing stupid things. If the Iranians think that they can close Hormuz for better than a few weeks or a couple of months at best, then they really don’t understand what they’re up against. It’s not for us to tell them if they close Hormuz, they will be very, very sorry.
• All we are willing to say right now is that even during the period Hormuz is closed, six million bbl/day of the 16-million bbl/day will still flow through alt-Saudi/UAE pipelines. In the event the west decides an Iran strike is required, oil stocks will be built up massively above and beyond what they currently are. And no western warships will enter the Gulf till after all threats are removed: that means all Iranian fighter and air defense units, all naval bases, all anti-ship missile installations and so on. As for sinking a supertanker or two in the shipping channels to create serious problems, before an attack on Iran tankers will be sent to port or will clear the Gulf. As for Iran-ported tankers, they will be attacked in the first wave precisely to keep them from sailing.
• Anyway. This is not a particularly interesting subject.
• Nonetheless, we’d have liked to see a second pipeline across Saudi, another to Yemen (isn’t this being built?) and a rebuilt TAP line Saudi Arabia-Jordan-Lebanon. That would take care of a lot of problems, cost perhaps $4-billion, and require perhaps 24-months on an emergency basis.
• We’re assuming these precautions have not been taken because people are figuring Iran will attack Mideast pipelines if war breaks out, but still, that’s not easily done, and $4-billion is a pittance in the larger scheme of things.
• By the way someone spoke to us to say that fracking has been going on since 1950s, and on a large-scale in the US since 1960s. We did not know this. It is not a new technology per se and there is a decades-old record available for examination by those who might be concerned about its environmental impact. There is no danger to water supplies providing well casings are properly constructed. The anti crowd will say but that’s the point, accidents can happen. True. They do. All the time. Take airplanes. But we haven’t stopped flying.
• Both economics and science policy make a 100% wrong assumption: that people are rational about assessing risk. They are not. It’s not complicated.
• Also by the way Iran says it has located a 50-trillion cubic feet natural gas field in the Caspian. We’re confused, though, because the iranins don’t use cubic feet as far as we know. Did the report mean 50-trillion-cubic-meters? http://www.energydelta.org/mainmenu/edi-intelligence-2/our-services/latest-energy-news/iranian-oil-ministry-claims-huge-caspian-gas-find This Iran source also says cubic-feet http://www.payvand.com/news/11/dec/1123.html but 50-trillion cubic-feet while an important find is not a game changer as the Iranians are claiming. Its only 50 Quads, a tenth of world consumption per year in 2008.
• The Iranians are just SO clever yesterday they announced they had “drained” the allegedly captured drone of ALL its secrets and are now read to produce the drone themselves.
• There are several ways one can take these pronouncements. The first: we are dealing with certified psychiatric cases. Second, the Iranians feel helpless against US weaponry and are just lashing out. Third, this is for domestic consumption.
• But if it is for domestic consumption, shouldn’t the government try to present a coherent story? Week One: drone is captured in an “electronic ambush.”  Week Two: drone is “drained” of all information. Week Three?? Drone is flying in vast numbers. Is the Iranian public so dumb? We doubt it.
• This takes us back to the second possibility, that the Iranians are simply freaked at their helplessness and are just lashing out without thinking.
• http://defensenews.com/story.php?i=8541166&c=MID&s=TOP (the report that Iran says it has “drained” the drone is from another source)
• US asks for drone back. Huh? Iran says it will sue the US for sending a drone into its airspace. Double huh??? How about US suing Iran over the 1983 Beirut Embassy attack – there’s no limitation on murder. Reagan pulled out of Lebanon, but oddly, no one accused him of being chicken and running away as happened with Clinton when he pulled out of Somalia in 1993. In retrospect, neither withdrawal was a smart move.0230 GMT December 12, 2011.

0230 GMT December 13, 2011

Just saying….

Caution: all figures here are back-of-envelope. You want precision, work out better figures and forward to us. We’re happy to put them up.

• World War 2 cost the US $304-billion (http://eh.net/encyclopedia/article/tassava.WWII ) Taxes paid for $137-billion. War bonds raised $205-billion. Even at this time of existential crisis, the US Government did not print money. Tax rates for someone earning as little as $500 (say less than $6000 in today’s money) were 23%. For those earning $1-million and up, rates were 94%. Unemployment by 1945 had fallen to 1.9% of the labor force of 56% of the US population.
• Before the Second World War, our national debt was around 45% of GDP. The national debt soared to roughly 120% of the GDP because of the war,  but then it steadily came down to less than 40% by about 1973 (we are reading off graphs from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:USDebt.png ) In other words, we did not finance the Cold War, the Korean War, or the Vietnam War by going further into debt as a percentage of GDP
• But starting around 1980, our national debt started climbing till now it is 100% of GDP and still climbing. 1980 is when the loveable Ronald Reagan started to cut taxes so that by the time the BushMiester arrived, debt was 60% of GDP. But even BushMiester, after doing his worst in cutting taxes, still managed to push up the national debt to only around 75%. The rest of the damage was done by the Big O.
• Now, dear readers, please still the cries of outrage. We are passing no moral judgments here. We are not arguing for or against tax cuts. We are not blaming the Big O, because if you think the recession was bad, imagine what it would have been like if the federal government had cut $2.5-trillion in spending in 3-years.
• All we are saying is, that since 1980 we have been spending more money than we have taken in taxes. Whether you chose to balance the budget by raising taxes, or cutting expenditure, or whatever, is entirely your beeswax. (Or, if you have a lipth, your bithneth.)
• US direct costs for Afghanistan and Iraq are $1.23-trillion (http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL33110.pdf ). Of course, the “regular” defense budget also kept increasing because stuff like pay/allowances and a good deal of equipment costs came from the regular budget, not the supplementary war spending. Let’s give it $1-trillion, round off, for a total war cost of $2.3-trillion. Back of envelope, make that $3-trillion in today’s money
• In terms of today’s money, US national debt in 1980 was $2.5-trillion (dollar is worth 40 cents now, and national debt was $1-trillion in 1980 - http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/histdebt/histdebt_histo4.htm ).
• We financed the Afghan and Iraq wars on the national credit card. You can draw your own conclusions as to why. We choose to believe that BushMiester secretly believed the wars to be illegitimate, so he did not ask the American people to pay more by way of taxes.
• But at the end of the day (don’t you just love that cliché?) the Bush wars would have brought the national debt to $5.5-trillion.
• That leaves us with an interesting situation. In the last ten years, we have tripled the national debt excluding the war costs. That means for ten years we have spent an average of $1-trillion/year on the national credit card.
• Now, folks, Editor is not interested in the whys of why this happened. Listening to a drunk why he gets drunk is not particularly edifying, and moreover, no matter what the reason, it doesn’t justify his being a drunk. And listening to a shop-o-holic’s justifying his spending is even more dull and even more pointless. A drunk, after all, can say “I drink because my wife left me for another woman, my kids don’t respect me, and even my dog pees on my slippers to show me what he thinks of me,” and you can still go – at least the first time you hear the story – “There there, you poor fellow.” When a shop-o-holic says he must shop because his wife left him etc, even the first time around you don’t want to hear about it.
• If ever we are going to get out of our debt mess, short of a default, we need to understand the problem. Problem the First is we paid for ten years of war on the national credit card when marginal increases in taxes would have covered it, and Problem the Second is then we went haywire on entitlements.
• It’s no use our chastising the profligate Greeks and Italians and Spanish  and the like, because we are far worse. The Italians at least were running a primary account surplus before the recent Euro crisis, and the Spanish have a debt of 60% of GDP, which is positively Puritan Frugal compared to us.
• We have not just been bad, we have been very very bad.
• And after being very very bad, we are still to refusing to raise taxes and cut spending. You have a bunch of blithering idiots on one side who say cutting taxes will generate enough money that the national debt wont matter, without explaining how come our tax rates are half of what they were in 1980 and we are in a huge mess. Then on the other side you have a bunch of blitherers who say raise taxes on the rich and that will solve all our problems. They don’t seem to understand taxes have to be raised on EVERYONE, yes, even on the mom with five kids whose husband walked off, AND we have to drastically raise taxes.
• Lets try and explain this to the blitherers on both sides. US takes in $2-trillion in income taxes. It spends $1-trillion more than it takes in (it actually spends more than $3-trillion because it takes in social security taxes and pays out social security etc, but $1-trillion is uncovered). If this amount of $1-trillion is to be raised by taxes, the average tax rates in the US will have to go up by 50%. We didn’t say the marginal rate has to go to 50%. We say every single person and every single company has to pay 50% more in taxes than they pay today. Still want taxes to go up?
• As for the cut taxes division, say we want to reduce taxes by 50%, so that the government takes in $1-trillion, leaving it $2-trillion short (still excluding social security as “paid for”) That means the economy will have TRIPLE in size to $45-trillion.
• Now even in La La Land, is that going to happen? Of course it isn’t going to happen.
• So the cut taxes division will say “You misrepresent us. We want a reduction in spending.” Okay, lets run with that. Cut taxes by half, we are $2-trillion short. That is 2/3rds of the federal budget.
• If there is anyone outside a handful of purists who says they are prepared to see a 2/3rds cut in federal spending, they are lying so hard it’s not just their pants are on fire, they are spontaneously combusting.
• Because $1-trillion in federal government spending does not mean a 2/3rds cut. Take away interest on the debt, somewhere around $300-billion, the government will have $700-billion to spend versus $2.7-trillion today. You will have to cut spending by THREE-QUARTERS.
• Still want to cut spending? Okay, then send in your proposed budget that keeps government spending to $700-billion. Factor in that if interest rates go up tomorrow, you’re going to have less than $700-billion to spend.
• We’re patiently waiting to hear from the Increase tax how they will manage with a 50% increase in their taxes, and from the cut spending crowd how they will manage with a $700-billion federal budget.

0230 GMT December 11, 2011

• We now understand why “intellectual” is a bad word in America: Newtie Newt claims to be an intellectual In most of the world, to call someone “intellectual” is to praise them. In America it’s a word of abuse. We’ve always wondered why. Now thanks to Newtie Poo we understand why.
• Newtie says that Palestine is not a country because the territory claiming to be Palestine was part of the Ottoman Turkish Empire. So is it okay to say that Israel is not a country because its territory was part of the Ottoman Empire? Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon are not countries? Germany is not a country? France? Italy? Belgium? Poland? Netherlands? Spain? They were all parts of the Holy Roman Empire. Is the US not a country then? It was part of the British Empire. Ditto Canada, South Africa, Australia/New Zealand and India. Are Pakistan and Bangladesh not countries? They used to be part of India. Etc.
• What makes a country a country? Well, one thing is that it should be recognized as a country. Thus, the Turkish Republic of North Cyprus is not reckoned a country because precisely two countries recognize it, including Turkey. So maybe Newtie meant that the US doesn’t recognize Palestine as a country so it isn’t a country?
• See, folks, most Americans are not intellectuals so it’s perfectly okay they don’t know that 95 countries recognize Palestine as a country, and it’s not a UN member because the US has said it will veto any such recognition by the UN, and it doesn’t have control over its own territory because one part is occupied by Israel and the other part is blockaded by Israel. .  But Newtie claims he is an intellectual – and a historian at that, la de da. He should know that about Palestine.
• But – wethinks – perhaps we demand too much of the Newt? A man who can move to impeach the President of the US for having an affair while he himself is having an affair, a man who can take $1-$2 million from federal organizations he claims are blood suckers on the American polity, and a man who says he never lobbied anyone, people handed over $100-million to him for his thoughts on history, such a man is a little – er – special.
• If it is true that Fannie Mae et al gave Newtie public money to get his view on history, we think it really is time Fannie et el were abolished. Because they have to be really, really special to think Newt knows history.
• And folks, a favor: please don’t ever, ever make the mistake again of calling the Editor an intellectual. If you do, he will have no choice but to unleash the nuclear option – he will call you  a Newt.
• Japanese on their defense: Blah blah blah blah blah Can a document such as a White Paper on defense incite the reader to violence? Yes, if it is the Japanese White Paper on Defense 2011. Updating our CWA Japan entry today we went through this 196 page document which frankly is not worth the paper it must have used. It is a masterpiece of saying nothing in too many words. We thought the Japanese were the Masters of Minimalism? Say Less, Mean More, that sort of thing?  Apparently not in the matter of defense white papers. The whole thing is a masterpiece – of excuses. Recognizing the rise of China, the Japanese have decided to reorganize the words they speak without spending a yen more than GDP growth. Which is about as close to zero as you can get.
• The Japanese say they will reorganize to lighten their army and give it more mobility to better meet a Chinese threat. Are we supposed to believe the Chinese can get to Japan faster than Japanese army formations get to their battle stations, requiring making them lighter and more mobile? We thought fads were the province of the US Army. Apparently we were wrong. The major Japanese ground forces program is a Stryker equivalent with around a 105mm gun. For this the Japanese are going to not replace hundreds of obsolete tanks with their super-hard and super-advanced T-10. Too expensive, apparently. How $12-million for a tank capable of meeting threats to 2020, for a country with a $6-trillion GDP, is not explained.
• The Chinese will have fun and giggles blowing up the Japanese Stryker equivalents and thanking their luck they don’t have to face T-10s. Or do we have it wrong and the Japanese are demonstrating only their well-known consideration for honored guests? “Welcome to Japan, and we don’t want to hurt your feelings by making our armor too difficult to destroy. Fire away, and enjoy your stay in Japan!”
• Letter on Apple manufacturing its electronics in China as opposed to the US (November 29, 2011)  I have comment on your Nov 29th posting regarding building of electronics e.g -IPads in the USA I have some experience with manufacture and the situation is not quite as simple as saving $8 of Chinese labor. The short summary is the manufacturing capability for this type of device (iPad) is not present in the USA. It is not an issue of adding a few $ per tablet. Issue is billions of dollars for factories and then years to train workforce and develop engineering ecosystem.
• Random article that explains some of it poorly http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2011/08/17/why-amazon-cant-make-a-kindle-in-the-usa/ Yes some companies assemble in the USA but semiconductors all from China. Even in weapon systems. You see parallels in US car production. The USA invented automotive mass production. Toyota improved it after world war 2 to the extent where they were far in advance of the US (Just in Time system and Toyota Production System). US manufacturers saw this, sent people to Japan to learn it, invited Japanese to America to teach it, and still it took years to build the US car industry into the powerhouse it is today. This is not criticism of USA. There are many fields in which USA leads the world. However tablet and semiconductor manufacture is not one of them. It wpuld l require government subsidy to enable the companies to remain profitable while they built a new manufacturing base in the USA. In my opinion, cannot really blame Apple or Amazon etc.
• Editor’s comment Our reader’s argument is absolutely correct. But why is it the US no longer has a manufacturing base capable of making electronics or power generating turbines or batteries or solar panels or oil pipelines? It’s because American capitalists have been single-minded in shipping US manufacturing to China. If Mr. Jobs (now thankfully dead) and Mr. Bozo (unhappily alive) had any thought for the country which has enabled them to become billionaires, they would figure out how to give jobs to Americans, instead of giving excuses a la Forbes.
• Are we being idealistic? Perhaps. But how do Apple and Amazon expect Americans to buy their products when they are complicit in shipping jobs overseas so that Americans either have no jobs, or – for the great majority of Americans who work in the pathetically paid services sectors – make marginal livings?
• We have a suggestion for the Bozos and the Wal *arts of America. Please apply for Chinese passports and go live in the Middle Kingdom. After all, that’s your spiritual home. And anyway, give it 10-15 years and China will be a bigger market than the US. By then American wages will have been driven down to the point Chinese companies will buy up America and get their goods produced here because we’ll be the Third World. We’ll be making I-Phones and I-Pads for export to China! Hahahahaha!
• Nie How Ma, Dude?
• From Richard Thatcher Herr Rikhye has advocated a combination of spending cuts combined with tax increases to get a “grip” on our (the United States) debt.  In my view even if this were done it would merely delay the inevitable which is full default.  In most respects the sooner this occurs the better on the grounds that the longer this is delayed the worse things will get and longer the following “hangover” will be.  The “crash” will not be pretty by any means.  During the height of the 1930s Depression some 1000 homes and properties were being foreclosed on per DAY!  Taking the midpoint, 1935, as a population “average” which was 127.25 million one can only wonder what, with close to 310 million today, what that rate will be like when this default “hits”.  Again, I see this default as inevitable, economics, no matter “twisted” will assert itself and our resulting “crash will be a rough one that will, very likely, make the 1930s look quite mild by comparison.  For those that worry about what others think of the US pretty much everyone will blame us for the resulting worldwide recession (depression?) and there will be more than some justice in that as we have known for decades that if we didn’t get a grip on things financial; we haven’t and the Piper WILL be paid.
• PS: Mister Rikhye has stated a number of times that when default occurs that he will be one of many made homeless as a result; I see the same thing happening to myself.  I don’t like it but I’m not getting any real choice in the issue.

0230 GMT December 10, 2011

• The Iranians have an RQ-170. No they don’t . Right after a bunch of people said that the Iranian did indeed have an RQ-170, a bunch of people are saying no they don’t. Apparently the pictures the Iranians have shown are inconsistent. The matter is not helped by noone in the public actually having got a good look at an RQ-170.
• What we thought were the exhaust for the engine turn out to be bumps on the wings that likely contain equipment. Nothing to do with the engines, so it doesn’t matter if they’re 20-cm or whatever across.
• Good energy news from China The US Energy Information Administration says that China may have 1, 275-trillion cubic feet of gas, versus US 875-trillion. The Chinese have started to explore their shale gas http://torontostar.morningstar.ca/globalhome/industry/news.asp?articleid=449633 Since they lack the pipeline infrastructure its not as if they’re going to see the gas tomorrow. But anything that reduces China’s dependence on imported hydrocarbons is good because it will push down the cost of oil.
• Bad news on the US fracking front The US EPA says it looks like one well has contaminated groundwater. Now, normally, no one should be freaking because one well, or ten, or even 100 create leaks. The existence of humans on the planet creates contamination, and whatever damage there is from fracking has to be orders of magnitude less than created by coal and oil mining, which contaminates waters like crazy.. The news is bad because the environmental purists are now going to go made and double efforts to stop fracking.
• Editor is all for the environment and has said if that means we have to reduce our standard of living to protect the environment, he’s all for it. At the same time, folks, there’s worse things than contaminated water. Your drinking water can be purified at far less cost than the energy foregone from not fracking.
• But then in every field of human endeavor, be its schools or medical care or transport or consumer safety or whatever we Americans have lost any balance on cost-benefit ratios. We are absolutists and OUR CAUSE IS THE MOST IMPORTANT. We say again: you wanna protect the environment, figure out how to reduce the world’s population to ten million in 200 years. Mother nature will look after the rest.
• By the way, how is this for a crazy enviro mom? We read in the Washington Post about this one mom who says she will not allow her kids to walks outside a bird sanctuary or under the path of a jetliner because who know what bugs  poisons they are exposed to.  We wonder if this mom realizes that the great cause of death on earth is – life. Once you’re born, 100% for sure you are going to die no matter what you do. Guaranteed. The only way to keep your kids absolutely safe is not to have them in the first place. Which will help bring down the earth’s population if enough people think along the same lines.
• So what do you think, people? Time to float a 503c or whatever they are called, a website, a lobbying group and so on built around the theme: “Avoid Life. It leads to 100% mortality”?
• All that’s left for the Iron Chancellor is the triumphal parade through the Arc d’Triomphe All except UK and three EU nations have said they agree to Germany’s terms. The three have said they have to submit the matter to their parliaments. This is a pointless exercise except for giving their politicians cover because if they say “no” they will be chucked out of the club. Hungary is already saying it is likely to sign. And Sweden and the Czechs say they’ll likely sign too. As for UK, Merkel is not bothered. Today Europe, tomorrow she’ll worry about the UK. Actually, she will never worry about the UK. She just doesn’t care enough to bother.
• There is a warning in UK’s situation that the US would do well to heed. Sixty years ago people could agree the sun was setting on the British Empire. But could anyone have even dreamed that the UK would become as irrelevant as it has today? We don’t think so. So, my fellow Americans, by all means keep whistling in the dark and assuring yourself all is well. But all means, Mr. Romney, tell people that America is entering a new golden age. But the world has no interest in what people say. It is concerned solely with the realities of power. And the USSR learned, if you don’t have economic power, you don’t count. All the USSR’s mighty military power could not save it from collapse and irrelevancy.
• By the way, guess who has the best debt:GDP ratio in the EU? Estonia. Six percent. Estonia just did not start down the debt road so right now its golden. Now we know you’re saying well, Estonia’s economy is the size of Montgomery County, Maryland, or whatever the equivalent county is in your part of the US of A, but that isn’t the point. The Estonians took a decision after independence, twenty years ago, that they weren’t going to get into debt, and they didn’t. There was no good reason for us to get into debt after paying off the World War II debt (if we had done that). We CHOSE to get into this mess. No one forced us.
• We’re going to say something that is going to get our liberal readers angry But look, people, no one has a monopoly on wisdom, except the Editor’s Teddy Bears, and they are so wise they don’t say a word about how people should lead their lives. On this the conservatives have a valid point: agreed that a whole lot of the country barely makes do, but if people weren’t so ready to have kids out of wedlock or to divorce, a whole lot of this country would be more economically secure. You can’t have the rest of society pay for the wrong judgments and choices made by others.
• So what are we saying here? That parents who father/mother children and then run away or don’t make enough money to send for their kids should be publically executed? Yes, that is exactly what we are saying. A human who brings children into this world and then doesn’t do everything to look after them doesn’t deserve to live as far as we are concerned. But what about people in bad marriages? Should they be forced to stay together so they have economic security? No, we aren’t saying that. But if you get married and then decide you’ve made a mistake and can’t look after yourself, why do Jane Q and Joe Q have to pay taxes to look after you? But what if your spouse is abusive, beats you, drinks and drugs like the fish of the sea and so on? Well, your bad luck and sorry about that. Its not the job of the state to make things right for you. You figure it out. No one said life is easy. As the philosopher said: “Life’s a b**** and then you die.”
• That’s about it, folks. A few decades ago no one would have quarreled with the philosopher. No one thought they were entitled to anything – and especially not at someone else’s expense. The Irish still think that way, which as far as we are concerned, makes them a good deal more moral than your average American.

0230 GMT December 9, 2011

“Where does the time go?” trilled Joni Mitchell and that’s what happened today. We forgot we hadn’t updated, and were redoing several Concise World Army files lost in the computer crash. We though all document files were backed up by Mozy Back Up, but the free version only does the files in “My Documents” so we lost a lot of countries update. The external hard drive where backups are supposed to go had a loose connection so we did not know nothing was backing up there. Anyway, only a very short update tonight, with apologies.

• The Washington Game: “I am a bigger idiot than you” – “I protest, sirrah! I am a bigger idiot than you” So first you have one bunch of braying idiots, the Democrats, who want to cut payroll taxes so they can get votes. Never mind that cutting payroll taxes means more trouble down the road for social security and is a really bad idea.  Then you have another bunch of braying idiots, the Republicans, who have never met a tax cut they didn’t make them swoon, determined that this one should not go through because they don’t want the Dems to get votes. That’s not the idiot part we are concerned with. It’s when the GOP says that this particular tax cut will not generate jobs that you have to go “Uh oh, someone is not taking their meds again.” So only a tax cut passed by the GOP creates jobs? BTW, has the GOP ever been able to conclusively show that tax cuts at the upper income levels generate jobs or is that more whistling through the wrong orifice? And has the GOP bothered to explain how people with more money are going to create jobs when there is no demand for the goods those jobs will produce because people are broke or without jobs or too scared to spend? Remember, the corporations are sitting on $3-trillion at home and abroad, cash. There is no shortage of capital to create jobs. The day they see demand, they’ll create those jobs. So what is the GOP proposal to get the U3 rate down to 4%? And what, when the government taxes money from you, it disappears into a black hole? Gee, color us stupid, but we thought government spending ALSO created jobs.
• Sure, there are jobs the government does not do well at. But there are jobs the private sector doesn’t do well at either. The idea is for the private sector to do what it does best, and the government to do what it does best, not for the government to take all your money (communism) or for the private sector to do everything for a profit (don’t know what that economic system is called – it wasn’t covered by the Editor’s political economy class when he was in college. Correction: when he was enrolled in college. He was seldom actually in college, if you get his drift. Too much wine and too much song, if you see what he’s saying. Which is a bit odd in Walrus and Carpenter style, because the Editor neither drank nor sang and still doesn’t. Ah, the mysteries of the universe.
• So the Iranians have shown a foto of the RQ-170 and US “sources” are screaming “Yes! Yes! They have the RQ-170! We are doomed!” Dunno, to us the thing looks like a clay model and are the engine outlets really only around 20-centimeters across. But okay, say they really have it, so what? The trick with stealth is the manufacturing technology and the computer modeling. Sure it’s nice to have one, but that doesn’t mean Iran is going to start making stealth drones. As for China, they’re busy stealing everything including the secret formula for the CIA Chief’s special toilet paper. Don’t worry, people, be happy.
• Reader Chris Raggio sent us an article that says the President was given three options, including an air strike and a special force expedition to either blow up the drone or recover it, and he said he didn’t want to do any option because it could be construed as an act of war.
• Possibility A: This report is fabricated. If the Prez was given the option, the US knew where the drone was. Since the Iranians didn’t get to it till some days later, whacking the drone from the air could hardly be construed as an act of war. What, the Iranians arrive at the scene, see a piece of machinery in Lego-sized pieces, and start screaming: “Its war! We have been attacked! The dastardly Americans have destroyed their own drone!”
• Possibility B: The report is true and the people who decide things in Washington DC are seven short of a six-pack. Hello, people, are we not at war with Iran already?
• Without further evidence, right now we go for Option A. Prez has shown no hesitation in using clandestine force. Was the raid to kill OBL not an attack on Pakistan? Are the strikes against Al-Shabab not an attack on Somalia? That doesn’t bother him, why would destroying US property that touched the sacred soil of Iran bother him?
• Possibility C: The report is true, but Prez’s advisors told him “The enemy isn’t going to get anything worthwhile from the drone, it’s not worth the effort or the bother to whack it.”
•  

0230 GMT December 8, 2011

Another exciting day at the ranch. For sheer excitement, nothing beats entering into Google search “Yemen Army 1^st Brigade” and then continuing to 401. That last number is the highest brigade number we’ve seen so we stopped there. There may be more. Before the Arab Spring hit Yemen, there was little publically available about its brigade numbers. For the last several months people have been furiously blogging and tweeting and so on. Of course, it’s not as simple as just entering the search time and seeing if something pops up. You still have to go through several entries for each number. If there is a point to all this, please do write; Editor would love to know.

• Hello global government Like it or not, global government has arrived, and it’s called the Global Financial System. It pulls down governments who don’t do what the GFS wants. It tells countries how they are to run their economies. It’s responsible to no one. US has so far escaped the worst of the GFS government because, after all, US is the world’s reserve currency. But in a few years down the line, US economic power, already diluted, will start fading. Correspondingly, the GFS’s orders to the US economy will start increasing. GFS will NOT accept the current 100% debt to GDP ratio, slated to go higher. As it is doing in Europe, it will insist US raise taxes and cut spending, even if it pushes US into years of recession. If US refuses to comply, GFS will push the interest rates on US bonds so high US will not be able to borrow.
• Don’t laugh: this has already happened to Italy and Spain. Italy was running a primary current account surplus, but GFS wasn’t happy. Spain has been pretty responsible about its borrowing, but not good enough for the GFS. The Greek, Italian, and Spanish governments have fallen or changed, all three countries are in recession or heading for it. GFS does not care. It does what it feels best to protect its money.
• US played possibly the major role in creating the GFS. It’s going to turn around and bite the US’s butt – not the next years, perhaps not even for five years or more. Buts it’s going to happen. The US members of the GFS won’t be the least upset. It’s all the economic geniuses that told us globalization was good for us and the fewer restraints on international money flows, and all of us who bought these false doctrines who are going to pay the price.
• Even the Great Merkel has had to bow to the GFS. Remember Merkel helped push through the Greek haircut? Her point was governments should not have to indemnify the money lenders for their bad decisions. Anyone notice that no one is mentioning haircuts for Irish and Italian debt? No, because the GFS has recovered from the panic that led it to agree to the Greek haircut. There aren’t going to be any more. According to the GFS the function of government is to help it make more money, and to force people to pay for the money they borrowed.
• Just By The Way: It’s Not True American Capitalism Has Failed as many liberals are now saying. American capitalism has created tens of millions of jobs in the last 20 years. Why, Apple alone probably created a million new jobs.
• Too bad the jobs are all overseas. But if you believe in global capitalism, where does it say American capitalism has to create the jobs in America?
• So long, suckers. The 1/100^th of 1% is laughing all the way to their bank. (Their bank and not the bank because the 1/100^th of 1% owns the banks
• So here’s a provocative thesis: Is there a correlation between crime and Gini coefficients? The Gini Coefficient measures national income inequality. The higher the Gini, the more inequality; the lower the Gini, the more financial equality.
• An enduring liberal thesis is that people turn to crime, anti-social behavior, rioting, etc because of the gap between the rich and the poor. Coming from India where there is a whacking great gap between the middle class (forget the rich) and the poor, this thesis has never made sense to us, because according to this thesis, India should be submerged in violence, and it isn’t. [Editor has never liked the theory that American children from poor families do badly in school because the families are poor. In  India the poor make every sacrifice to make sure their children get educated. They correctly see education as a way out of poverty and will do anything for their children’s education. And woe will befall the child from a poor background at the hands of the parents if s/he misbehaves in school or doesn’t do the homework and so on.]
• Now a British fellow of the Manhattan Institute has written an analysis on the British riots last summer http://www.city-journal.org/printable.php?id=7544 This is not an easy article to read, but its provoking. It questions the thesis that income inequality leads to crime. If you have the time, it’s worth reading.
• X-37 gets more weird Reader Richard Thatcher writes to say that apparently the X-37B mini space shuttle has been playing hide and seek with ground based astronomers, likely as part of its testing. And now there’s a C version planned, which will have twice the volume.
• Is the RQ-170 loss over Iran THAT serious? A provocative article http://aviationintel.com/?p=4164 argues it may not be. The article says that drone are lost all the time, implying it would be silly of the US to fly something over hostile territory if it were not prepared to lose the vehicle.

0230 GMT December 7, 2011

70^th anniversary of Pearl Harbor. We’d like to disabuse, if we can, the notion that FDR let the Japanese attack Pearl Harbor as an excuse for bringing the US into the war. Even had the Japanese not attacked Pearl, their attack on the Philippines would have led to a war with the US.  Please to notice FDR did not declare war on Germany. He may have wanted to, to help Britain, but the American people were pretty isolationist and did not want to involve themselves in a European War. It was Hitler’s folly in declaring war against the US that led to the US intervention in Europe

One thing we should all be able to agree on without being accused of revisionism. Knowing that putting embargos on Japan would cripple its economy, US either should have thought ten times over before taking actions which – if someone had taken against us would 100% have led to war – forced the Japanese to attack. Alternatively, US should have been prepared for the consequences of its anti-Japan actions. The last thing the US should have done is stick a dozen sticks in the Japanese hive and then fail to be prepared for war. Yes, if FDR had told the American people sanctions against Japan would lead to war they may well have said forget about China. That’s the way democracy works, like it or not.

Should the US have intervened against Japan for China? Two things. It’s easy to forget that till the communists took over China, US and China had a close relationship. And considering the horrible atrocities the Japanese were committing, it was morally right for US to intervene. Simultaneously the US should have heavily reinforced the Pacific and been ready for war. If FDR though the American people wouldn’t go for this, we repeat, then morally right or not, he shouldn’t have acted against Japan.

What were some of the US’s actions against Japan? Oil, iron, and steel were embargoed. Japanese assets were frozen. The Dutch and the British followed suit at least on the oil. So what were the Japanese supposed to do except to go to war? None of this to justify what the Japanese were doing in China.

It’s fine for the Japanese to say to the west “You all built your colonial empire and reaped the benefits, why aren’t we being allowed to do the same thing?” First, this was the 1930s and not the 19^th Century. People’s ideas on what was acceptable behavior toward the natives had changed. Second, the only colonial power who remotely approached the Japanese brutality against China was Leopold of Belgium with his genocide in the Congo. Remember the Europeans, in the early 20^th Century, were so aghast at Leopold that they collectively threatened intervention. The Congo was taken away from him (it was his personal estate) and made the responsibility of the Belgian Parliament.  Even here, Leopold’s genocide came in the form of treating labor very badly so that hundreds of thousands died due to malnourishment, maltreatment and the like. Leopold was not having his soldiers bayonet Congo men, women, and children for sport or as a way of making his soldiers ruthless. Of course, then Hitler had to come along and make the Japanese look like hypersensitive protectors of human rights.

The more things change the more they remain the same, say the French. We’re a bit surprised that more people don’t see parallels between FDR 1941 and W Jr. 2001. In both case, the men’s hearts were in the right place. But when it came to thinking before acting, FDR and W Jr. had a lot in common. This is the curse of humanity. Just as every generation of children have to make the mistakes of their parents, countries have to keep making the same mistakes again and again. It’s just the way it is. It cannot be changed. Editor will not be around in 2071, but he can say with full confidence a US president will do something so stupid and so costly that people for years will be trying to find conspiracies and plots because they will refuse to believe people can be so monumentally stupid.

• Iran US says Iran does have an RQ-170, and likely in good shape as the drone is programmed to find a place to land if it gets into trouble. So we do have a problem, unless the US cleverly sent over a giant flying rubber duckie with RB-170 stenciled on its side as a way of misleading the Iranians. We’d like to ask if the Flying Rubber Duckie – sorry, we meant the RB-170 – is so smart why isn’t it programed to return to its base?
• Speaking of drones wired magazine says the Army and Marines are working on putting mini-munitions – 12-lbs – on the same drones these services use at battalion level. Interesting.
• OWS Washington’s misstep People have the right to protest peacefully and the Washington authorities have gone out of their way to accommodate and coexist with the Occupy Washington lot. There was absolutely no call for some of the Occupiers to start verbally abusing the law enforcement people when the latter took down a wooden semi-permanent structure the Occupiers were erecting. The officer on the street is as much part of the 99% as the Occupiers. But s/he has to do what they’re told or they get disciplined. It was not the idea or initiative of the officers on the street to take down the structure. That was the Interior Secretary’s orders. It is immoral in every sense to take out your anger on people who’ve been doing their level best to let you do your thing.
• Occupy Washington owes an apology to the Washington law enforcement officers.
• Snacker Supreme There’s a black hole out there with the mass of 22-billion suns. Frankly it does not seem right to us that this super hungry monster is possibly destroying thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands, of civilizations just to gratify its ego. Like the 101^st Dalmatian who was always hungry, this fellow seems to have no concept of appropriate behavior. We bet it gives nasty burps each time it downs a star system.
• There may, however, be a cosmic purpose behind these giant destruction factories. We’ve been slowly, painfully, trying to get through Roger Penrose’s new book on cyclic universes, about a page a week. What Penrose thinks is writing for the lay public and what the lay public can comprehend are two different things. If we have his main idea right, it seems that once the entire universe is chewed up by black holes, the last Redskins football fiasco witnessed, the last beer quaffed, and the last star scarfed like just another Cheez Doodle, black holes regurgitate all the matter they’ve ingested, sort of like a giant cosmic Roman orgy, and the universe is reborn.
• If we’ve understood Penrose’s point, and if he is right, then okay, perhaps these fellows do serve a purpose.
• Mind you, Penrose is saying some really weird stuff, such as that entropy does not keep increasing. Inside a black hole it decreases, and you have to have that if you’re going to get a cyclic universe.
• Reader Richard Thatcher made the point to us this sort of stuff is far more interesting than the stupid euro and the equally stupid dollar and all the horrible mundanities with which we trap ourselves. We were reading an article on Einstein, and apparently in his day he was a pop super star for the masses. People used to wait for his latest pronouncements which used to be headline news. How did we get to the stage where Angela’s latest news – she has spent time visiting Brad’s family and they piled on about it was time to make an honest man of him – is of greater importance than the cosmology news? Don’t want to sound elitist and all that, but maybe its as well there are black holes to put a stop to this deterioration in our mind.
• Today we read that 50% of kids want an I-pad for Christmas; 30% want an I-phone; and 20% want an I-pod, or something like that, which adds up to 100% of the kids in America wanting an I-gadget. Is this something we should be proud of or should it cause us to worry?

0230 GMT December 6, 2011

• Germany Uber Alles Chancellor Merkel rammed her tough conditions for saving the Eurozone down Europe’s throat, including France’s. Merkel was insisting the price of her help was Euro nations lived with a 3% budget deficit or faced sanctions. Right now everyone has to vote for sanctions.  In the new dispensation, agreed to by France, the sanctions will be automatic. Merkel first rubbed everyone’s nose in the mess while whacking their behinds, sort of like you housetrain a puppy. Then graciously she allowed the European Court of Justice would decide who has broken the 3% deficit rule.
• So do we expect that the crisis is over and that Germany will now agree to various bailouts? Germany is not quite there because the other nations have to sign on to this agreement. Will they dare refuse? Well, this female reincarnation of another German Iron Chancellor, Bismarck, has conclusively shown it’s her way or the – er – path less travelled. If they don’t sign, they will not get bailed out and that’s that.
• Britain may now want a renegotiation of the European treaties. Rage was running pretty high against the EU even before this Euro thing happened. Britain has to assert itself or accept it will be bulldozed by the Germans, and it’s not about to accept the latter. In our opinion, though, Britain is a side show; Merkel made it clear she had no time for Britain – or for US financial advice.
• So this is more of a reprieve than a done deal. But note that Italy has already reaped the benefits of being Merkelized: it announced even more austerity, making it more likely it will be bailed out, and the interest rate on 2-year bonds plummeted. People may march in the streets, but ultimately all their choices are bad, and agreeing to Merkel-strength austerity may be the least bad choice.
• Iran Hey guys, don’t Bogart that joint – pass it on to us. Took control of a US drone and forced it into Iran? Lot of inhaling and no exhaling going on here. If the Iranians did that, how come it took them a week to announce it, and why did they have to shoot down the drone as they claimed?
• At this point several things are not really clear First, does Iran have its grubby paws on a US drone of any sort? The media assumption is that it does, but till pictures are shown, we’d hold our horses. Next, is the advanced stealth RQ-170? Again, the assumption is it is, but that’s based on backward reasoning: If US is flying a drone over Iran it has to be the advanced stealth beat because Afghanistan opposition has no radars so there’s no need to fly it over Afghanistan. But was the US flying it over Iran, or was it on an Afghan mission and kind of putt-putted into the sunset? (You do realize there is a children’s book and inspirational movie in all this: the poor drone, forced to work day-and-night by the cruel military, manages to break free due a momentary lapse of control and makes a run for freedom. Of course, the problem with this plot is what sort of freedom is it going to have seeing as its smashed into bits in Iran. You can’t impress lady drones if you can’t – er – get it up. We mean get it up in the air, you dirty-minded readers.)
• If Iran does have a RQ-170, then regardless of what the US says, it’s a setback. Maybe not so with regard to the sensor package, which some people are saying is an old version now replaced by a very much more advanced one. But still, China and Russia get to take close looks at another US stealth product.
• If it is an RQ-170, we’re wondering why the US didn’t pulverize it with a cruise or even an airstrike. You could argue (a) it wasn’t that important to bother with; or (b) US itself didn’t know where it was. Finding things in mountains can be quite hard.
• Also please to note Iran said almost a year ago it shot down a US drone lurking near a nuclear facility, but it has still to put it on display or post pictures. US denied that one.
• Kepler makes it Strike Three The telescope has found a third blue planet, 600 light years away. It has a G5 star, like we do, and has a temperature of 72F (22C). The planet, Kepler 22b, is 2.5-times the size of earth.
• For the last three years Kepler has been watching 150,000 stars between Cygnus and Lyra. When last the Kepler team made an announcement, in February, the telescope had found 1300 candidates for life. Now the number is 2300.
• http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn21243-smallest-habitable-world-around-sunlike-star-found.html
• Another very simple explanation of why we are in an economic mess Robert Samuelson writing in the Washington Post says that from 1820 onward 2% annual economic growth was normal. In the 1960s and 1970s it became 4%. Assuming that the Good Times were Going To Roll Forever, governments went all-in for the welfare state. But growth has returned to 2%, and we cannot afford the welfare state. End of the story.
• What could be simpler than this?

0230 GMT December 5, 2011

• United Russia may end up with 50% of the vote So far we haven’t seen what this means in terms of Duma seats. In the parliamentary system a party can get less than 50% and still end with a majority of seats. The Communists have made a strong showing; according to some estimates they have doubled their votes. Looks like the Russian people have finally had it with corruption and the oligarchs, which was really the main issue in the election.
• Oil will go to $250/barrel if Iran is embargoed, says Teheran You see, we all have fantasies. This $250 figure was thought up by American speculators in oil futures as a possibility should Hormuz be closed, and it was a self-serving estimate, not based on reality.  Iran has picked up that figure without thinking things through, as a threat should the west embargo Iranian oil. But there is no basis to that figure simply because if the price of something rises, its use declines. That brings down the price. This is one reason people like the Saudis don’t want oil to go much higher than $80, because they’ve seen before energy substitution starts taking place. Of course, right now there is a huge speculative premium in the current price of $100. We mentioned the other day that the chief of Chevron said he thought speculation had added $35 to the price.
• Besides which, the west is not thinking of embargoing Iranian oil in the usual sense of an embargo. West will simply stop direct purchases. Since Iran has to sell its oil, the thinking goes, non-embargoing parties like China, India etc will be able to negotiate discounts. Iran will be hurt; the oil will still get to the market.
• We are not oil economists and we are not vouching for the accuracy of any of this thinking, but we have been told by People Who Know that the maximum oil can go for is $150 before the market collapses – as happened in 2008
• Merkel, Germany, and the Euro Because of the Internet, anyone can say what they want, and on Chancellor Merkel we’re quite astonished at how many insist neither she nor Germany realizes how serious the Euro problem is. We beg to differ. The Germans are perfectly aware that their hardball tactics can go either of two ways. One, the problem Euro nations bring down their deficits and start paying off their debts, which will cause recessions – this is already happening. Two, the problem nations default.
• Germany is ready for either eventuality. The Germans do not care one hoot that the over-borrowed Euro nations will suffer. The Germans have gone through ten years of restructuring their economy. They suffered, and for any other nation to say “you’re making us suffer” cuts no ice with the Germans.
• Should the over-borrowed nations default, the Germans will fall back on their core Euro zone, and they’ll take the banking losses default entails. Won’t be pretty, but there is just no way you are going to get the Germans to accept bailouts.
• Now, it is argued that the prime beneficiaries of the Euro have been the Germans, because it has allowed them to export huge amounts to other Euro nations. If the Eurozone shrinks, or breaks up, people say the German mark will be so strong Germany will not be able to export as much. A rate of 1.8 DM per dollar is mentioned.
• First, the Germans can live with that rate – it was higher before they went into the Euro. Second, if it is a choice between two bad alternatives, as we’ve said, the Germans will choose the path that requires no bailouts except on German terms.
• We wouldn’t get too excited about the exchange rate. Remember, Germany is also a major importing nation. If the hypothetical future DM is strong, the price of all imports, including energy, raw materials, food, semi-manufactures etc. falls. This mitigates the effect of a strong currency on exports.
• Another reason not to get excited is Japan. Remember when Japan’s yen was 360 to the US dollar? Well, its 75 now, and while the Japanese are screaming (in their quiet, polite way), they’re managing. That is a huge, huge revaluation. Sure the Japanese are paying a price. But no one is suggestion that Germany will be caught in anything like the same magnitude of revaluation.
• China becomes Number 1 CO2 emitter Congratulations, China. Of course, US still leads China 4-to-1 in per capita emissions.
• Oklahoma Gas Exploration Leases become 100-times more expensive Readers will be familiar with the natural gas boom that is changing the economies of states like North Dakota. Oklahoma is another place where the boom is exploding. Leases for a single acre have shot up from $200 to $20,000 – royalties if gas is found are extra.

0230 GMT December 4, 2011

• Pakistan Border Post Attack On anything to do with US-Pakistan relations in “AfPak” as the in-people like to call it, Editor’s first reaction is to go “Not tonight, my dear, I have a headache”. Sorting out the “US says Pakistan says” is less productive than trying to write all the zeroes in a googolplex. And likely one will get to write all those zeroes before one determines the truth of such incidents.
• Nonetheless, here’s more headache-inducing news about the recent incident. First, Pakistan says it immediately warned NATO that its border post was under attack. But Pakistani communications were not good enough to get aircraft scrambled to warn off the attackers, who had the outpost under fire for two hours according to Pakistan. Seems a bit peculiar on the face of it, that Pakistan’s communications with NATO are better than within its own forces and in its own country.
• Second, Pakistan has refused to participate in an enquiry being launched by NATO. Also sounds very peculiar.
• Third, Wall Street Journal on Thursday December 1 ran an article saying the Pakistani troops were not at the declared outpost, but at a temporary outpost which was not on the map.
• Fourth, NATO says Pakistan cleared the airstrike, implying Pakistan did not know where its troops were. But Pakistan says NATO gave the wrong coordinates for where it was going to attack.
• If, dear reader, you don’t have a headache by now, you’re made of sterner stuff than the Editor.
• And then there were two One GOP candidate is the Klasse Klowne and one is a screaming bore. The GOP’s penchant for shooting itself in its head six times in one go  is now in full evidence. Our advice to the GOP is: do what people say you should do if you’re being sexually assaulted. Lie back and think of England in winter.
• Oh, sorry, we got that mixed up. Thinking of England in winter is when you’re having sex with your significant Other. Lying back and enjoying it is what you’re supposed to do when you’re being assaulted. We know what some readers are thinking: “Sure, just go blame the victim for the attack.” In this case, however, if we’re not going to blame the GOP for the situation, who do we blame? Or is it Obama’s fault the GOP presidential lineup is just so weird?
• There is simply no point any more to following the 2012 election.
• Letter to the Editor from Name-Withheld-By Request You blasted American generals for their incompetence in Afghanistan. Yet in your own country, India, your generals took twenty-five years and 600,000 troops to defeat 5000 insurgents. So who are you calling incompetent?
• Editor’s response Dear me. If the Editor has ever said one nice thing about his country’s higher defense leadership, it must have been while the Real Editor was under abduction by aliens and the Fake Editor was writing this blog. The Real Editor has never said one single positive thing about his country’s higher defense leadership – ever. That’s in 41 years of writing about Indian defense. Please to show Real Editor any other analyst in the world who has been so consistently consistent.
• Next, let’s have a few facts please. India never had 600,000 troops fighting insurgents in Jammu and Kashmir. The figure was at peak 150,000 troops and the same number of police/paramilitary. If you count allied forces in Afghanistan in the same manner, including contractors who are doing jobs that used to be done by the military, you have half-a-million NATO/Afghans/Contractors. The US performance in Afghanistan is even more pathetic than we made it in our blog entry because we left out the Afghans.
• Because India was fighting on its own territory, it had to operate under rules of engagement so restrictive no American officer of any rank would agree to them. No air support. No artillery. No heavy weapons. (Yes, all this was used on occasion – very rare occasion – when India cornered a large enough body of insurgents in terrain away from villages.) India had just a few helicopters, and it had absolutely nothing like the vast American C4I network. No drones. No technical reconnaissance. No fancy weapons. No information fusion. Etc etc. The entire action barring a couple of hundred kilometers in the Jammu-Pathankot area was in the high mountains. No vehicles for one thing. This is not a joke. Lets see how the Americans would do in such  circumstances
• India did not take 25 years to defeat 5000 insurgents. That was the maximum number of insurgents operating at the peak of the insurgency. Every year fresh batches of insurgents would infiltrate and had to be wiped out all over again.
• The biggest reason for the 15-years is that the Indian government refused to fence the border till very late in the day. Why? Plain incompetence and plain ad hocism. A war of 25 years was fought on an ad-hoc basis? Absolutely. Indians, like Americans, pride themselves on being exceptional. The Government of India is “exceptional” in the same way as American students of a certain group are “special”. Once that fence was built, infiltration came down 95% and the war was over.
• There is a reason we don’t criticize Indian generals. Indian generals have no political influence whatsoever. They can talk to the press, but heaven forfend they should say anything that has any meaning. They do not get to shape policy, leave alone MAKE policy as American generals get to do. You can’t blame Indian generals, hardly, because the fellows have no influence with the government. Zip. Zero. Nada. Zilch. Null.
• Last, our patriotic reader is under some misapprehension concerning the Editor’s status. Except that he does not get to vote, he is for all practical purpose an American. He lives here, hasn’t been back home in 21 years and has no plans to ever return. Further, aside from those 21 years he was brought up here. Editor’s entire family is American. He pays American taxes religiously and obeys American laws more strictly than most Americans.
• The reason Editor is slamming American generals is because this bunch of over-educated, over-confident, over-arrogant, over-publicity-chasers and at the highest levels totally political animals is making a mockery of America. With the one shining example of Gulf I, since 1945 American generals have failed their country again and again and again. Not one has been punished – except McArthur, and that was not because of his military failures, but because he openly, publically defied his Commander-in-Chief. American soldiers have paid the price for their generals’ failure, and the American taxpayer has paid to fund the endless follies of these same generals. If our patriotic reader is not outraged by sixty-five years of pathetic performance, maybe it’s time he did get outraged.
• By the way, any time our patriotic reader wants to slam the Indian higher national security setup, we’d be happy to start him off by giving him more hair-curling data and stories than he will be able to absorb. Next Editor will give him lots of contacts in India who will tell him even more hair-curling stories. We just told one the other day, of how India has managed to produce 150 T-90 tanks in ten years.
• It is always a big mistake to confuse silent acquiescence in our general’s misdeeds with patriotism. Americans are so patriotic that all you have to do is raise the flag and they will shut up. This is what has been happening since 2001. Neither Congress, nor the media, nor the people have brought our national security leaders – which includes the government – to account for the last decade. This is not patriotism. This is abdicating all responsibility just because the man is waving a flag in your face.
• American generals are supposed to be professionals. In Afghanistan they have shown again and again that they do not know how to fight an insurgency. This is not professional. End of story.
• (Even if the generals did know how to fight an insurgency, since the Afghans are not willing to fight for themselves, there can be no ultimate victory. But the American generals should stand by their sworn ideals of duty, honor, country, and tell the politicians there cannot be victory. Since the generals have consistently refused to do that, they have failed America, and their men.)

0230 GMT December 3, 2011

• If this is not military incompetence, what is? Since only a tiny fraction of the population goes to war, the rest of us have figured out new ways to assuage our guilt. One is that we don’t criticize the military. We have no problems criticizing the military because Editor lived through Second Indochina and was on the outer edge of Korea. We never criticize the people in the trenches, it’s the flag officers we have it for, though we have to admit in Afghanistan there are many cases of brigade commander’s acting weird. We discussed one such some months ago. When he landed up the men told him they had to hold the high ground, which is kind of basic in mountain warfare, you know, a bit like saying B goes after A and before C. kindergarten sort of stuff. He just brushed it off.
• Now today we read something that has to take the cake and will explain why we will never win in Afghanistan, not in fifty years. And no, it’s got nothing about how good the enemy is. We are continually amazed at how hopeless he is. Its because our military leaders are plain incompetent at anything other than conventional warfare.
• Aviation Week’s Aries Blog informs that the military has figured out that since the range of most American company weapons is 500-meters, the Taliban has been firing with RPGs and machine guns from 1000-meters out. So the ground troops have had to call in artillery and air strikes: expensive, time consuming, and great danger of whacking civilians as well as the bad guys.
• So the Army is sending the Carl Gustaf rocket launcher to Afghanistan, high explosive and air burst warheads, range out to 1300-meters
• As the Washington Post columnist George Will says when he is really indignant: Well.
• First, dozens of armies have been using Carl Gustaf for decades now. It is not a new weapon. Second, the US military has been using it for forever and a day for the Special Forces. It is not even a new weapon for the US military. Read about it at http://tinyurl.com/6s2p2hx
• This has taken ten years for American military leaders to figure out? These are the people who we’ve entrusted the Afghanistan War to? The same lot who build bases on the valley floors, load up the infantry with 60-120 lbs of gear – we’re talking mountain now, not the plains, and who have a devised a strategy that before a company can go out on patrol, it has to do planning that makes the planning for Omaha Beach looks like 1^st Grade stuff? The same lot who leaves it to Pakistan to hold the border when Pakistan’s interest lies in defeating the Americans in Afghanistan? The same lot who complains of not enough troops when there are a quarter-million troops and contractors, the later doing the work the military did in previous years? The ones who after ten years want another ten? The same ones who tell us the Taliban is taking a beating, when over the border in Pakistan you have over 2-million males reaching military age every year, and the Taliban needs to recruit 1% to keep this going forever?
• You know what? We’re willing to bet that the amount of water NATO troops drink on operations is more by weight than all the supplies used by the Taliban.
• What kind of a strategy is to push the Taliban away from American bases and outposts, and let it hang around till it feels like making another attack? Look, people, we know seek-and-destroy got a bad name in Vietnam, but how else are you supposed to take the initiative and make the enemy dance to your tune? Sure you’ve got to protect the population. But you can’t because the locals don’t want to fight.
• Aaargh. We don’t want to go on because it raised the old blood pressure. And the worst of it? Not even the incompetent military men. It’s the sophistication with which those same military men have seduced the media and controlled the media and manipulated the media so that we get astonishingly non-critical accounts of the war – and the media has let the military do this and get away with it. It’s the media makes us really, really want to puke. All its grandiosity, overblown sense of importance come to nothing when they’re facing a photogenic American general in battle dress. Somehow the Americans never have a shortage of these folks. The media  become as helpless as kittens picked up the scruff of their necks. And its not as if the generals are doing the equivalent with affection. The generals are doing Number One and Number Two all over the media, and laughing at what a bunch of dumb-butts the media are. Enough now.
• Jobless rate falls to 8.6% - but hold the diet soda The reason the figure fell was 315,000 people left the labor force. Otherwise 120,000 new jobs would not have moved any needles. Labor economists are said not to be concerned, we have no idea what concerns them but assume they are employed, which automatically reduces anyone’s level of concern.
• Further, the bulk of those new jobs are in retail, which pays pathetically. And a lot of the 140,000 jobs created may be seasonal (government jobs fell by 20,000, continuing a two-year pattern of decline).
• The real figure we should look at is that 64% of Americans are participating in the workforce, down from October’s 64.2%. So the situation has worsened. But what are facts between friends? You have your facts, I have mine, and we must respect each other’s facts otherwise we are not being inclusive, tolerant, multi-cultural and what have you.

0230 GMT December 2, 2011

• Isfahan blast This happened on Monday November 28,The Australian report at http://tinyurl.com/c4l777m which we quoted in Twitter today is the only one we could find that mentions that while Iran has denied any explosion, satellite fotos show there is an explosion at the uranium centrifuge facility.
• Okay, so things are blowing up all over Iran, and there comes a point you have to start wondering if the previous explanation that it is bad maintenance should be questioned. We are reminded of Bond James Bond who said “once is an accident, twice is a coinkydinky, and the third time is enemy action.”
• The question is, how are these places being sabotaged? Is it by fiddling with the computers and driving machinery crazy? Is someone actually sneaking in and putting explosives? Are these someones insiders or outsiders? And so on. Many questions, few answers.
• Saudis fear there will be ‘no more virgins’ and people will turn gay if female drive ban is lifted Dang. Now they tell Editor why he can’t get a date on Saturday. http://tinyurl.com/7tj4fmg What we can’t figure is why get agitated if there are no more virgins when everyone has become gay? Gay men won’t care, and we’re unsure if gay women will.
• This will solve the problem of global warming: since everyone is gay, no more kids will be born, in due time the population will be down to zero, and the polar bears will be so happy. Deficit problem? Solved. Failing schools? Solved. Illegal immigration? Solved. Fear that the children of the Kardashian Sisters will have children? Solved. Worry that President Obama will get re-elected? Don’t worry: there won’t be any people so no one can vote for him.
• The new Pearl Harbor “warning” that has been declassified A declassified report made three days before Pearl Harbor is being cited as evidence of the government’s mistakes. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2068188/Declassified-memo-warned-FDR-Hawaii-attack-3-days-Pearl-Harbor.html
• We haven’t read the book and probably will not, but at least from what the UK Daily Mail report, its clear this report was no warning. “The memo read: 'In anticipation of open conflict with this country, Japan is vigorously utilizing every available agency to secure military, naval and commercial information, paying particular attention to the West Coast, the Panama Canal and the Territory of Hawaii.' As the Americans say, tell me something I don’t already know.
• This is warning: “Japanese carriers departed their home port ten days ago and are headed toward Hawaii. It is apprehended from supporting intelligence a, b, and c, that an attack on Pearl Harbor may take place.”
• Even that message may not have sufficed for the simple reason that all sorts of contradictory intelligence comes in every day. There was no particular reason for anyone in Washington to suspect that a Japanese attack was imminent. People don’t just attack people out of nowhere.
• Something we have yet to see anyone ask: was the US fleet really crippled at Pearl Harbor? Sure, the battleships were either sunk or badly damaged. But let’s suppose no battleship was hit. How precisely were American battleships supposed to retaliate? They could not have survived sea battles with Japanese carriers, nor could they have made much difference to Japanese control of Pacific islands because they would have been attacked by Japanese land-based aviation. To fight the Japanese you needed aircraft carriers. And not one American carrier was touched at Pearl Harbor.
• The Americans believe their fleet was crippled because in those days the battleship was deemed supreme. You lose your battleships, you’re crippled. The reality is if the Americans had gone after the Japanese with battleships, those battleships would have been lost anyway.
• Flashback to December 10, 1941: under 100 Japanese aircraft attack HMS Repulse and HMS Prince of Wales. The British have no air support. The Japanese lose three aircraft. The British lose both capital ships.
• Same thing would have happened to US battleships operating without air cover. If you have the carriers, you don’t need the battleships except for shore bombardment. Also please to remember to Japanese at that time were masters of the universe when it came to aircraft carriers.

0230 GMT December 1, 2011

• As a hedge against delays/cutbacks in the F-35 program US is working to extend the lives of its F-15s. The air defense variant is to be extended from 8,000 hours to 16,000. The strike version (-15E), which has stronger wings, is to be extended from 8000 to 32,000 hours. Gulp. That’s 60+ years to 100-years depending on how many hours an individual aircraft is flown. People don’t keep major warships for 60-100 years (though in the age of sail that was often the case). Aircraft are sort of like throw-away items, so it’s a bit mind-boggling that you could fly a fighter for 60+ years.
• US is also working on a stealthy version, the Silent Eagle.
• X-37 to exceed designed 270-days in space The unmanned mini-shuttle is doing its Energizer Bunny thing. Having stayed aloft for 270-days, its maximum design, US is keeping it aloft to see how much more it can take.
• What’s surprising to us that of a sudden people are talking of this as a vehicle to deliver 7-astronuats at a time to the Space Station. Well, didn’t we have such a vehicle, which we called the Space Shuttle? Where did this astronaut thing come from, given the US government and private companies are working on astronaut delivery vehicles?
• India’s planned aviation brigades defense news says India plans two types of aviation brigades, one per corps. One is for the strike corps with two battalions each with 12 attack helicopters, and two with 15 general purpose helicopters each. The aviation brigades for the other corps is not defined, but will have more troop lift.
• Parenthetically, just to show how completely pathetic India can be regarding defense, Ajai Shukla’s blog “Broadsword” says in ten years India has produced 150 T-90 tanks. That’s fifteen per year. Mr. Shukla blames Russians for reneging on contracts, refusing to supply items and technology agreed to, upping prices, and so on. As the Americans might say: “Aint that a surprise”. Come on India, grow up. The Russians have been jerking India around for decades. India put up with it because Russian equipment was much cheaper and didn’t require precious foreign exchange. You can blame the Russians all you want, the real question is why India puts up with them. It’s as if India enjoys being a victim.
• Back in the day, in the 1960s, when Britain provided India with an MBT for domestic manufacture, Indian factories turned out 200/year. Now they’re turning out 15 Russian tanks a year. How can anyone take India seriously?
• http://ajaishukla.blogspot.com/
• That’s nice the stock markets rallied after the world’s major national banks (not the Germans, please note) announced they would provide additional liquidity, basically (a) guaranteeing no major bank would be allowed to go bust; (b) banks/governments could buy Eurobonds, pushing down yields; (c) providing people funds to buy USA dollars. We’re not quite clear what the point of this last is. Anyway.
• All that this does is buy time for Europe to work out a political-economic solution to its debt crisis. Before the world’s central banks announced this move, people were saying Europe had ten days to save the Euro, after that, barring a solution, the Europe was in Bye Bye Land. These moves should provide a lot more than 10 days. But it’s a band aid, not a solution. Very, very tough decisions still have to be made on bringing down deficits and refinancing bonds coming due.
• In UK the government has informed the people that they’re in for another six years of misery before incomes can start growing faster than inflation. Now just imagine American politicians telling their people that six more years of misery is in the cards. Can’t imagine it? Neither can we. Americans want to live in La La Land, they can’t take being told the truth. Incidentally, aside from cutting budgets like crazy, the Brits are raising taxes on anyone making a mere $70,000/year. Try doing that here in an effort to stop the deficit from growing.
• Honduras is the latest Latin nation to send in the army because drug trafficking is out of control. Mexico readers know all about. El Salvador is being taken apart by drug gangs. Same problem is starting to happen in Puerto Rico, which the last we heard is America for all purposes. Trafficking into Haiti and Dominican Republic is starting to boom. Honduras now has a murder rate of 82 per 100,000, the highest in the world. US average is 5; Puerto Rico is 25, El Salvador is 66, Mexico is 65. Venezuela is 72, with Caracas at 230, but while drugs are definitely an increasing problem in Hugo-Land, there are other issues.
• But: my fellow Americans, no need to worry. Please sleep on. There is no problem anywhere. We are the largest consumer of illegal drugs in the world, we jail the highest percentage of our population in the world, but there’s no problem. Carry on, America. Roll another Jay, snort more cocaine, lets drink more booze – which in terms of its social consequences is far more destructive than drugs, as for tobacco – just as is the case with booze – the government (at every level) cannot do without the tax revenue.
• Either drugs are a moral issue or they are not. If they are a moral issue, than alcohol and tobacco should be made equally illegal with identical penalties. If drugs are not a moral issue, legalize them so that entire countries are saved from being torn apart and we can jail fewer people. We are not taking a position on this. We’re just calling for consistency and clarity.

0230 GMT November 30, 2011

• Only 30% of US cargo transits Pakistan 40% comes in by northern rail route, 30% by air. (We don’t want to even think about the last 10 years has done to the life of the US airlift fleet.) Of course, the 30% via Pakistan is stuff you don’t really want to move by air, like POL, and US partners are more dependent on the Pakistan route. NATO has built stockpiles because closure of the Pakistan route for one reason or another is fairly common.
• Governor Christie, we agree with you – but watch that blasphemous mouth We agree with Governor Christie of New Jersey that what the heck is America paying Mr. Obama for, to be a referee for Congress and to walk out when there’s tough work to be done? A president is supposed to lead. That doesn’t mean he is going to win every battle, or even a majority of battles. But he has to get down in the trenches and fight. Mr. Obama is not doing that.
• That said, while we understand that Governor Christie wants to show he is a real man, and a man in a hurry, and one who brooks no nonsense, there is no call for him to cuss. America’s public dialog is already crude enough – media, TV, films, the conversations of ordinary folks – that we don’t need to make it worse. A person who cusses tells us only about the kind of person he is, not what kind of person the other fellow is.
• Meanwhile, there’s a new imbroglio concerning Mr. Herman Cain We think Mr. Cain could aptly play the magicked ass in Shakespeare’s Midsummer Night’s Dream, though we may be insulting the poor ass. But we don’t see how it’s anyone’s business that he did, or did not, have a 13-year consensual affair.
• So what is it Americans want, a candidate without sin? May we ask (a) where they propose to find such a person; and (b) can any man or woman really afford to cast the first stone etc.? Or is it their case that we are all flawed, but our leaders must be perfect, so that we can vicariously watch someone else expiating our sins? If so, we’re exactly 2011 years too late, sorry about that.
• Is Chancellor Merkel playing poker? One school says she is. She’s acting tough on an Euro rescue because she wants countries to get serious about their budgets. Another school says she is not playing poker. Aside from that printing money goes against her personal beliefs, the German people will pull her down the day she agrees to print money and the next government will reverse the decision, so why make a pointless decision in the first place?
• Canada and Kyoto Canada has refused to abide by the terms of the Kyoto Treaty. In part because of the strip mining required for unconventional oil extraction, Canada’s carbon footprint has increased, and not decreased as the Treaty requires. Canada is looking to expand tar sands output from 1.5-million barrels/day to 3.5-million by 2025.
• BTW, a small misconception needs to be cleared up. From well to tank – extraction to refining – tar sands may well create 3-times as much carbon as conventional oil. But most of the carbon created from oil use comes when the oil is used by vehicles. If you calculate well-to-wheels, the increase is a maximum 15%.
• Don’t like even that? Okay, support nuclear. Don’t like nuclear? Fair enough. That leave us with two alternatives. Alt A: sit and suck our thumbs. Alt B: reduce our standard of living. Personally, Editor has no problem with Alt B for the simple reason that, existing on the lower margins of society as he does, he’s not using that much energy to begin with. For example, he drives an average of 500-miles a month in a sub-compact. The thermostat is set at 80F in summer and 65F or less in winter (at night heat is off completely). Every light bulb in the house is a 17-watt incandescent. Water use is 2/3rds standard per capita for the region. Lawn is never watered, young trees are occasionally watered. No flower beds.
• But don’t suggest stuff like windpower unless you want to live next to a 400-foot windmill. Solar? Okay, we’re progressing slowly, be prepared to pay at least twice, if not thrice, per kilowatt/hour. Etc.
• I-95 South between Washington and Richmond We made the trip again to Raleigh NC to see how the new grandkid was coming along, and large stretches of the infamous Washington beltway as well as I-95 appear to have been newly paved. The contractor has done an excellent job, with lanes marked clearly and a profusion of catseyes to help keep you in your lane at night. But: the traffic remains brutal – obviously. Returning Saturday after Thanksgiving, in the early evening, Editor was trapped in a giant traffic jam Richmond Exit 86 all the way to where I-95 becomes 12 lanes (or is it 14) as you approach Washington. Six lanes isn’t enough for the traffic the road must carry between Richmond and Washington. Giant traffic jam as in being completely stopped, 15-25 mph otherwise. Nary an accident, either.
• But will I-95 get expanded? They’re doing something north of Baltimore, adding toll lanes (you already pay tolls in Maryland at Baltimore (tunnel), before you hit Delaware, and the Delaware bridge. They’re also adding toll lanes to the Washington Beltway in Virginia. So when traffic reaches the Maryland border, you’ll have 12 lanes or whatever falling to 8, and good luck with that.
• Meanwhile, we are being told that MD 200, the Inter County Connector between I-270 and I-95, is the last major road project Maryland will see in a generation. There is no money left for any other road project. Of course, the population will keep growing. Sigh. And here Editor used to think he was living in a first-world country. Still, the air and water are clean and there’s a lot to be said for that. Not complaining, only saying.
•  

0230 GMT November 29, 2011

• US Fed made $1.2-trillion in secret loans to US and global banks, says Bloomberg If the $700-billion in TARP is driving conservatives nuts, this is going to put them in orbit with rage. The loans were made in 2008, so it was Bush not Obama who made them. Bloomberg had to use the FOIA to get the information which the fed wouldn’t cough up. Democrats are making the point the total money committed by the Fed for loans etc was $7.7-trillion – we’ve read this figure before, and think it was in Bloomberg/Business Week.
• Presumably the bulk of this money has been paid off. But there were no strings attached, unlike with TARP.
• The 6 biggest US banks had $6.8-trillion in assets in 2006, before the meltdown began. As of September 23011 its $9.5-trillion.
• Two points. One we’ve made many times before. When it comes to comes to Crony Capitalism, we cannot talk about the democrats did this or the Republicans did this. It has nothing to do with political party, the entire lot of bums is on the take. Two, if you consider US had to commit more than half its GDP to stabilize the financial system, you’ll see why we’re so skeptical about the piddling multi-hundred billion bailouts the Europeans keep talking about. It seems to us the Europeans need to come up with a several-trillion-dollar bailout. Since Germany refuses to let European Central Bank print money, which is what the Fed did, the European bailouts cannot succeed.
• http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2067359/Revealed-The-secret-1-2-TRILLION-bailout-given-banks.html
• Europe Global markets rose yesterday as it appeared Germany and France will propose stringent rules regarding member budgets. If members reject this, the two countries will form an inner Euro zone where they will issue their own bonds. Countries who refuse European control over their budgets will have to tough it out on their own. This two-tier thing is seen as the better alternative as opposed to breaking up the Euro which will prove costly and plunge the world into a recession.
• Meanwhile, Britian is caught in the logic of deficit reduction UK went all in to cut spending as a way of bringing its budget deficit under control. That has triggered a near recession, which in turn has meant a Sterling 50-billion tax shortfall. Which means to meet budget deficit targets, more spending will have to be cut, which will cause growth to fall more etc.
• The problem is that pay now, or pay later, but pay you must. If you use deficit spending to mitigate a recession, debt goes up, which weakens the economy in all sorts of way. Cutting spending causes trouble now, but is beneficial in the long run.
• Mars Rover Curiosity is on its way, and that’s the easy part. The landing is going to be a white-knuckle affair, with too many things to go wrong as far as we are concerned, despite the most rigorous design, production, and testing. That’s why we favor cheaper probes and more of them.
• Meanwhile, BBC says a Russian general says a big US radar in Alaska may have caused EM radiation that crippled the Russian Mars rover, which is in orbit after failing to head off to Mars.
• Steve Jobs  The following is not an apology for Steve Jobs who shipped 700,000 manufacturing jobs to China so he could make a few more dollars on his products. (We are told there’s $8 of Chinese labor in a $500 I-phone – if correct, there is no reason why Apple could not have taken a slightly smaller profit and had the I-Phone made in the US.) But we came across one allegation against Jobs which we don’t think is quite fair.
• Jobs in his younger days before he settled down was living the un-material life and easting meals at a Sikh temple. It is a tradition of Sikh temples that anyone who wants eats free, and they will even give you a place to sleep if you help with the chores etc. This applies to anyone, of the Sikh religion or not of it.
• In an Indian publication we saw a letter attacking Jobs for his lack of personal hygiene, his abusiveness towards subordinates and so on. Then the letter writer said Jobs never did anything for the temple which fed him over some period of time.
• This is not fair because whatever Jobs’ faults, and he had plenty – we think he was a traitor to America along with others of his ilk – but he never talked about the money he gave to charity.
• You could argue that he never talked about it because he never gave any. This is not what we hear. He didn’t want the attention by giving to charity, even though he had so large an ego it could not fit the entire US. We acknowledge its possible we’ve been told wrong . But till proven otherwise, the one allegation we are not prepared to lay at his unwashed feet is that he never did anything for the temple that fed him.
• Nothing to remotely do with the GWOT, but we felt we had to respond to the allegation.
• From Professor Faizal Khan A couple of comments on your views on the NATO attack on the posts at Salala. Its possible that both sides are ‘correct’ in so far as it goes.  NATO has admitted that there was a NATO/ANA joint operation in progress; probably some kind of a cross-border raid on a suspected Taliban camp.  Mohmand Agency is clearly bandit country for the Pakistanis.  It is possible that they saw something (movement, firing, whatever) and the forts (for that is what they really are) opened up since they knew that there were no friendlies out there—presumably they had not sent out a patrol—and NATO hadn’t told them anything.
• The NATO/ANA troops report receiving fire from the Pakistanis and request support; the helicopters and planes pound the posts and wind up killing a lot of Pakistani regulars (NB:  these weren’t FC troops; the coffin pics I saw said Azad Kashmir Regt).  Since this went on for two hours and it seems that there are reports that the Pakistanis (not sure at which level) were in communication with NATO/US and the attacks still continued, no Pakistani will believe that this was in any way a mistake. 
• The reaction of the Islamic parties and the government is irrelevant; all that matters is what the Corps Commanders and PSOs say in the conference that will surely be called and how much they have heard from their own men.  The PA officers I know are all very anti-US military (and very few of them are in any way ‘islamists’) and many would not be at all averse to an actual confrontation.  I’m not sure they are exactly spoiling for a fight but continually rolling over for the US is getting very unpopular among the junior/field-grade officers and ORs.
• No matter what Kayani might be personally inclined to do, it really depends upon how angry the Army as a whole is.  The PAF also is not particularly happy with the US since they wound up looking particularly pathetic when the OBL raid helis came in and left unmolested. The outcome of any such ‘confrontation,’ if shots are fired, is of course all but preordained but maybe the US might have a minor surprise or two.
• From Phillip Rosen When talking of data speeds, you should be using Mb and Kb for Megabit and Kilobit. Files are in Megabytes and Kilobytes, 8 bits to a byte. Regarding Verizon, it is likely the speeds at your door are as they advertise, 15/5 Mb/second. The data is likely going over a network, however, which could slow it down.

0230 November 28, 2011

• Arab League imposes total sanctions on Syria Most readers are probably too young to know that 3^rd world bodies such as Arab League were nothing but cozy get togethers for despots and tyrants. To us old timers, it’s a bit of a shock to find Arab League has not just acted against a member, it has acted decisively. As of yesterday, Syria is under trade, financial, and travel sanctions. These, in fact, are tougher sanctions than the west has imposed to date, and the AL did not spend months hemming, hawing, hedging, iff-ing and but-ing. It told Damascus last week its patience had run out, and them whammo, when Damascus didn’t respond, the sanctions came down. Goods intended for consumption by the people are exempt.
• AL says it has acted quickly and harshly because it does not want outsiders to interfere in what’s going on. It’s hard to overstate the significance of this development, particularly given several members of the AL are no paragons of democracy themselves – Bahrain and Saudi being two of particular concern. If they are now insisting that Syria allow a representative, popular government, it follows next when their people ask for the same, these countries will have no option but to concede.
• Meanwhile, please note Iraq was one of the three countries to against sanctions. Baghdad says it has Iraqis living in Syria, trade, and general security issues to consider. In short, while it’s okay for Iraqis to enjoy the benefits of a democracy, it’s not okay for the Syrians. Is this weird or is this weird?
• The Iranians of course voted no, and so did the Lebanese, because of trade. With three neighbors likely to turn a blind eye to sanctions Syria can expect some help. But let’s see what happens.
• Pakistan We spoke with Mandeep Bajwa, and both he and Editor came to conclusion that the US air attack was a mistake because it is not like the US to apologize all over the place without a full enquiry, which can take weeks and months. NATO spokesperson has said, without elaboration, that NATO troops came under fire on the border and responded.
• We should explain it is routine for Pakistan to provide cover by fire to infiltrators and exfiltrators. They used this tactic against India till the Kashmir insurgency was defeated. There were nights on the Kashmir Cease Fire Line where you’d think war had broken out, because Pakistan artillery would open up and then the Indians would respond, and it would go back and forth. Neither country has ever disclosed how many soldiers got killed in these exchanges.
• Pakistanis have been doing the same thing in Afghanistan. Personally, we don’t think it is NATO’s responsibility to always be absolutely sure that fire is coming from a particular outpost when the firing from Pakistan’s side is a daily occurrence. It doesn’t matter these two posts were not firing on NATO forces at that particular time. War is not civil policing, where it doesn’t matter if a habitual law-breaker may not have broken a law on one particular day and is therefore innocent of that particular offence.
• Pakistanis say they cannot stop the Taliban from firing on NATO forces from Pakistan. First, this is so not true. Second, how come the firing always takes place from near Pakistani posts? Who do the Taliban choose to infiltrate/exfiltrate adjacent to Pakistani posts
• Anyway, the above is beside the point as far as we are concerned. We’ve said the US needs to get out of Pakistan and we stick to that position.
• Euro crisis It seems that Germany is going to remain firm against allowing the European Common Bank to print money to buy bonds and push down yields. There’s talk that Germany is in talks with 9 or so other nations to go their own way on the Euro. It means global bankers will have to take a huge hit. But as we said yesterday, therfe comes a point the politicians will not stay bought by the bankers because what their own people will do to them is worse than what the bankers can do to them.

0230 November 27, 2011

• That tick-tick-ticking you hear is the timer attached to the Euro bomb. When it blows up, no one can tell what will happen and where it will end. The timer becomes inaudible over the weekend, because the markets are not open. But it's ticking on.
• Latest: Belgium downgraded to AA; the 180-day Italy rate at 6.5% we mentioned; the 2-year rate is at 8%; three-quarters of the German public is against the European Central Bank printing money to buy bonds and bring down interest because this will cause inflation; but if the ECB doesn't print money, there will be no one to buy Euro nation bonds at reasonable prices. Had interest rates remained as they were in October, Italy as an example would have been fine. But Italy is having to pay twice as much interest as it planned. So it has to raise taxes at a time it has been in near-recession for years, and that will push the economy into deep recession, and then Italy will be unable to pay - reference Greece.
• Without getting into existential debates on this, it is very clear (a) Europe cannot pay back the money it has borrowed; (b) neither can the US. Default is the only solution. The big money people who own governments don't want this option. But there comes a point where you have the big money people threatening the politicians from one side, and the lynch mob threatening from the other. The worst the big money people can do is not give you money. The worst the mob can do is take your life. So what is the course a rational person will choose?
• From Eric Cox Today, you wrote: "Agreed that the problem with the stimulus was  it was too small and directed to benefit the rich, and so it saved the rich but it didn't help anyone else." I think that you are confusing the TARP with the Stimulus.
• The TARP, passed reluctantly by both houses and signed into law by GW bailed out the Banks (which are, arguably, the Rich although the Banks have little money of their own). The Stimulus, (the ARRA), which was passed without bipartisan support during the Nancy Pelosi-Harry Reid interregnum, that was signed into law by BH Obama, bailed out the unionized public employees, the unionized teachers, the unionized auto workers
  and the unionized portion of the construction trades  (Those most likely to be competitive under Davis-Bacon wages), the green energy industry and the States.
•  The much of the TARP money, that which was guarantees, not loans, was never disbursed.  The TARP that were disbursed been largely been paid back, although there is some funny accounting where the government received stock in the banks.The Stimulus funds, only about 20% of which were for physical product, have not been paid back, but they will be by inflation down the line as you observed.
• Reader Cox is absolutely correct we should have said the stimulus was too small to help much. Government's reasoning was the stimulus was a temporary patch till the banks started lending again and got the economy going. That is why George Jr came up with TARP because his economists told him credit was getting frozen and the economy would collapse.The banks were save but did not start lending because there was no demand, because the stimulus was too small. This is a country of 313-million people, after all, and an economy of $15-trillion. According to http://www.recovery.gov/Pages/default.aspx the ARRA spent $730-billion  of which $215-billion was for contracts, grants, and loans, the stuff that creates jobs as opposed to the rest. The whole thing put together is 5% of the economy, not enough to stimulate anyone considering the borrowing-driven growth of the last three decades (correct us on the time frame) had collapsed and thus demand had collapsed.
• The banks and almost all the financial institutions, of course, are in fine shape thanks to our government. In a true capitalist state, as opposed to a Crony Capitalist state, those bank/institutions should have been left to fail. Hayek specifically says the system has to be cleaned out once excesses build up, and until the system is rebalanced, you cannot get growth. System has not been rebalanced - for example, the mortgages underwater are still carried on bank books as fully viable.
• Capitalism, to use Churchill's memorable comment about democracy, is the worst form of economic systems - except for the others. Editor is all for capitalism - but what we have today is not capitalism.
• Moreover, what we have is the Anglo-American variant that puts the interests of the shareholders first, last, and always. Other variants, such as Japan, Germany, France put customers and workers first. In the Anglo-American system, it was Steve Jobs legal duty to maximize Apple's profits, even if it meant taking jobs away from Americans and giving them to the Chinese. Also fine and dandy, but when American workers don't have jobs, or make too little to do more than survive, then they cant buy products American companies make. So Steve, the dear boy, checked out with $6-billion and Apple has $60-70 billion overseas that it has evaded taxes on - legally. So there is a place in North Carolina, that had several hundred decent furniture factor jobs. The factories are gone - they're doing excellently in China. Now Apple is putting up a cloud computing facility in that town. The payroll? Fifty people.
• The truth is, the economists lied to us. Believe it or not, till he saw the error of his ways, Editor wanted to be an economist. Shudder. One is so foolish in one's youth. The economists said: "Its okay for the furniture jobs to go to China, because they make furniture cheap, which benefits our consumers, and we'll sell them high tech." Well, if you ever have time, look up the China-US trade stats (we'll carry some tomorrow). Like most people, likely you've been assuming that our enormous trade imbalance with China is because of garments, shoes, toys, and furniture. No, sirs and ma'am. Its because China exports far, far more machinery to us than we export to them. We have nothing high tech to sell them, not in any meaningful quantity, because they make everything themselves.
• Then the economists said" "We don't need to make anything, because we'll be a knowledge economy."  Honestly, Editor has not figured out what this means, because you cannot eat knowledge, nor can it clothe you, nor can it house you, nor can it drive you to work.
• And in any case, guess what? The Indians will take every single last knowledge job there is in America. Already American law firms, architect firms, insurance firms, and medical firms, get their scut work done in India. Its just a matter of time before the Indians design the next World Trade Center for us, develop the next miracle drugs, argue our cases before the Supreme Court, and take over not just the bank end of insurance, but the whole shmoo.
• Then what will we do?
• You see, its not just the government lies to us. Its everyone who has a buck to make lies to the American people.
• First, whose fault is this? If a huckster sells you the Brooklyn Bridge, do you blame the huckster or blame yourself? The American people not only blame the huckster, they want the government to protect them from hucksters. Interesting, considering the government and its allies are also hucksters working with the huckster who sold you the Brooklyn Bridge.
• Second, unless we the people - you and I - stop whining and blaming the government, the banks, the politicians, the media, for the situation we are in, unless we the people rise up and change things, we will continue getting the Royal Shaft. It may be a 24-carat gold shaft, but it works the same as any other shaft.
• Now, having  made this inspiring call for revolution - not the silly OWS revolution - Editor will go the fridge and have a nice, soothing glass of chocolate milk, full fat of course. This will put him in a happy coma where nothing matters - not even the lack of a date on Saturday. The rest of the country can return to the TV, beer, and Frito Lays and get back to its happy coma where nothing matters.
• PS we're told there is a New Yorker cartoon: this obscenely wealthy banker is in his obscenely extravagant office, looking out of his windows, well pleased with himself. He's on the telephone and he says: "What am I doing? Occupying Wall Street."
• There is more truth in that one cartoon than there is in the rest of the uber-indignant, uber-entitled people who say they speak for 99% of the country.
• This cartoon reminds us of another, where these two very proper explorer Englishmen in the deepest heart of America have been set upon by the natives. One of the Englishmen has a spear through his middle. The other solicitously asks: "Does it hurt much?" The wounded man says "Only when I laugh."
• We laugh at the New York cartoon. But we're the Englishman with the spear through his middle. The banker is the one having the last laugh.
• PPS: You know who are taking the responsibility for the economic misfortune that has befallen them? The Irish. That's right, the Irish. As a matter of form they may hurl the occasional abuse at the bankers and politicians. But they realize they were responsible for buying into the over-consumption thing, and they understand they have years of sacrifice ahead of them to make up for their indulgence of the 1990s and 2000s.

0230 November 26, 2011

Letter from "Irate Reader"

• You have advocated everything from defaulting on our national debt, to cutting the federal budget to $1-trillion, to raising taxes,  as a way of eliminating our national debt. In Europe, we see one country after another getting into severe trouble because they have followed your formula. Since they have raised taxes as well as cut back government spending, the economies of these countries have been pushed in recession and the situation just gets worse every day. I specifically mention Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain, with Portugal and Belgium about to tip over. As for UK, it's just a matter of time before it slips into recession. Greece has done all three things you want the US to do: defaulted on 50% of its debt, raised taxes, cut spending, and the best anyone can hope for is that by 2020 the Greeks will owe "only" 120% of their GDP, if democracy in the country survives till then considering the steadily increasing hardships the Greeks must endure.
• When are you you going to understand that your crypto-fascist economics don't work, and that Keynes remains as relevant today as he did seven decades ago, and that Hayek, who you seem to love, had it wrong. And when are you going to admit that we were doing fine with the national debt till your hero, George Bush Junior, cut taxes instead of paying off the national debt as Bill Clinton had begun to do, and then financed two wars using deficits because of his ideological aversion to raising taxes, regardless of the fact that that Great Guru of the Right Wing, Ronald Reagan, raised taxes when it was neccessary.

Editor's Response

• Lets talk morality rather than politics or economics. For whatever reason, we have saddled our children and grandchildren with a massive debt. Just as we as individuals would not live high on the hog using credit cards we leave to our children to pay, we as a country should not leave the debt to our children.
• The figures are quite simple. The federal government spends $3.5-trillion and takes in $2-trillion. So we add $1.5-trillion a year to the debt. No one, right left, center, up, or down, has come up with a plan that balances the budget leave alone pays off the debt, which is now 100% of our GDP and growing. we need not to just cut the federal budget by approximately 40% so that it is is balanced, we need to pay of $15-trillion. That means raising taxes, and realistically, it also means a partial default.
• Yes, people will suffer. Editor has said earlier that if things get any harder, he's going to lose his house for starters because like tens of millions of Americans, he is barely making it through day-by-day. But what justification does Editor have to life off the future of his children? None.
• Agreed in theory we should be stimulating the economy. Agreed that the problem with the stimulus was it was too small and directed to benefit the rich, and so it saved the rich but it didn't help anyone else. Agreed that when the economy revives, we should cut spending and raise taxes and so on.
• But there's the theory, and there's the reality. The reality is that when times improve, instead of saving more and paying our debts, we will spend more. How does Editor know this will happen? Because it has happened before. Few sacrifice willingly, particularly in this country.
• Regardless of the theory, its better to do everything bad that needs to be done all at once. Politically, too, that's better as Machiavelli noted.
• As for Keynes and Hayek, neither has an answer for what's happening in America today. The country is deindustrializing, the rich are getting very rich, the very rich are getting obscenely rich, the poor are either getting poorer or just ding-donging along. America has become a country of low wages, decaying infrastructure, terrible health, failing education, etc etc. Can either Keynes or Hayek help us with this situation which neither foresaw? The mantras of the right have proved as barren as the mantras of the left. While Steve Jobs made $6-billion, he didn't help Americans because he outsourced all but a tiny fraction of his jobs. When John Paulson makes $6-billion in a year, he generates - what? - a thousand jobs. As for the left, Government is now "helping" so many people that vast numbers no longer know how to take care of themselves.
• Honestly, Editor would put no stock in what Keynes said or Hayek said or whoever said. Someone has to come up with new thinking.
• As for Bush Jr, Editor liked him because he was a decent man who governed for eight years without a single woman accusing him of sexual harassment or a single financial scandal. We like him for his personal ethics, not for his financial and foreign policies which have proved disastrous and have eroded our personal freedoms to the point no American can sing the "Land of the Free" part of the national anthem without adding quickly in parenthesis "I lied".
• As for being a crypto-fascist, fascism was a unholy troika of state, church, and industry. It's very hard to deny that we live in a fascist country with the composition of the equation having changed somewhat. Its now the state, the financiers, and the media. Closest Editor comes to any American political doctrine is Libertarianism, which is not fascism. Sure, Editor is a heretical Libertarian. But we all need to think for ourselves, no follow a playbook.
• If we're going to follow a playbook, then how are we different from the Islamists, who justify everything because "it says right here in the Koran"? Or our own fundamentalists, who justify everything by because "it says right here in the Bible?" Or from the Chinese power elite, which has no playbook since Maoism was jettisoned, but just makes up rules to suit itself as it goes along?

0230 November 25, 2011

• Iran arrests 12 CIA spies? This news is a bit boring, for all that it will give everyone a chance to go around beating their chests (Iranians - "We're so smart"; Americans - "we're so stupid"; Brits - "the Yanks still have not learned the business despite all our attempts to teach them" etc. etc.
• First, twelve spies is a bit much. It takes years and years to build up twelve real spies and certainly no one is smart enough to roll up that many at one time. Second, since when does one take the Iranians at their word about anything? Just the other day they were claiming they've developed an air defense missile that's superior to the Russian S-300, and that's just one of the claims they seem to make every day of the year.
• What's a bit odd is the way the alleged CIA sources are going "Yes, yes, mea culpa and this is a setback." Normally you don't say anything, unless you're trying to distract people from picking on your real spies.
• Some things are beyond dispute, and the American love affair with high tech spying is one. A billion dollar spysat is so much more exciting than the dull, risky business of developing people on the ground. Its true people can give you information "national technical means" cannot. It's also true that technology can give you results people cannot. It's also true any statement anyone makes about the world's second oldest profession is true at some time in some context somewhere.
• What also cannot be denied is the media pressure for the Sound Bite. A fave Go-To is Mr. Robert Baer, formerly of the CIA, who can be relied on to shoot off something auro-genic (our word for attractive sound bite) faster than you can draw your gun, pardner. Not that anyone asks our opinion, but if they did, we'd have to hem and haw and say "Look, its going to take time to come up with an answer, one has to investigate and analyze and evaluate and so on." (Maybe this is why no one asks our opinion.) Mr. Baer is of the opinion that these arrests show how messed up our intelligence ops in the Mideast are.
• But lets first answer this question: do we know the Iranians are making a true claim? Based on experience, that is very unlikely. Second question: how do you define spy? In totalitarian countries you are a spy if the government says you are - don't take our word for it, talk to people who've gotten into trouble consulting in Russia and China. Remember the three American "spies" Iran has just released? A young woman and two young men, hiking in Kurdistan, told by Iranians "you're in Iraq, not to worry, come along", and then they're arrested as spies. Its an old - and very boring story. North Korea probably arrests a dozen CIA spies every day. Even the Iranians couldn't stop laughing over that one, and if you have had dealings with Iranian intelligence officials in the Shah's day or post-Shah - its all the same - you'll know Iranian intel officials are not given to ROTFL.
• Which reminds us:  Can Editor's spy friend who must have retired by now please get in touch? Editor has lost your contact so he sent a letter to your office, which came back "no such person In This Zip Code". Cheez. As if they went around and asked everyone in an entire Zip Code if they were this person. On top of which they opened the letter, made a fotocopy, and made absolutely no attempt to hide what they did. These youngsters are very disrespectful, but are would they know how to disguise their spy cow in Shiraz to look like a mullah? Obviously not. For the good stuff you need us oldies. (Mr. Robert Baer does not count as an oldie. He knows how to disguise a spy cow as a mullah, but he doesn't know how to infiltrate it into the Nantez enrichment plant. His spy cow would be caught at the first Plop. Editor's spy cow would Plop the Iranian National Anthem in perfect four-part harmony and have everyone standing at attention. So there. Mr. Baer.)
• Why should we take Russian seriously? Russia is threatening the US that if Washington doesn't do its ABM thing in a way that satisfies Russia, Moscow will station missiles on NATO's borders. Yawn. Double Yawn. Zzzzzz.
• That was a nice nap. Where were we? Oh yes. Russia's point is that the US ABM shield for Europe can be used against Russian missiles. A-a-a-a-a-n-d? Of course it can. Maybe not these particular ones, but in general no weapon system comes with a guarantee that it will be aimed only in one direction.
• But are the Russians planning to fire missiles at the US? If they are, then the US should be doing everything to build up its ABM defenses. At this point the Russians will say: "We're not planning to fire anything at anybody. But if the US builds up an effective shield, it could believe it can make a first strike and neutralize our second strike."
• Well, we could debate if MAD was that logical a doctrine to begin with. But lets leave that aside. What evidence do the Russians have that the Americans are mad enough to think they can stop 100% of a Russian second-strike? After all, just one warhead getting through would cause catastrophic damage to the US. Moreover, why on earth would the US want to nuke Russia to begin with? The Cold War is over, remember?
• We'd like to make two points. One, if the Russians are so worried about US ABM for Europe, let them join the west in stopping Iran's N-weapons program. When Moscow threatens US about Iran, you've got to wonder: is Russia our friend or our enemy? if it is our friend, help stop the Iranians. If it is our enemy, okay, we'd better thicken that shield by a factor of 100. No telling when the Russians decide for a first strike.
• Second, what exactly has Russia done to be taken seriously? Its GDP is the same as India's, and will soon fall behind.
• We rest our case.
• (IMF World Economic Outlook, September 2011, India $1.8-trillion GDP,  Russia $1.8-trillion. Currently India is less because the Rupee is in a temporary slump, down from its usual Rs 45/US$1 to Rs52/US$1. But it will recover. Meanwhile, the Indian economy continues growing at 7%.)

0230 November 24, 2011

• Saleh of Yemen steps down? The question mark is because though he has signed on the dotted line saying he will go, he has 30-days to hand over power to his vice-prez, and he will remain "honorary" prez for 90. This could give him time to move his cash out of places it could be blocked, and then he could go back on his word.
• And as Reuters points out, this deal does not resolve the matter of his relatives, who are armed and dangerous, and have signed no deals.
• Egypt protesters reject military's offer and continue demonstrating. There are allegations that the authorities are now using CN and CR tear gas, which is bad stuff compared to the regular CS. There are also reports that the Army is in the forefront of crowd control, possibly hoping that people will get less angry with the army than they get with the police.
• Despite our fervent wish the Egyptian generals would just accidentally trip in front of their M-1 tanks and get run over, we have to note that a lot of Egyptians are really worried about the potential for chaos ahead if matters are not resolved soon. A lot of people are okay with the army acting as the de facto guarantor of the constitution. which, we are sorry to say, is an oxymoron. In a democracy the military can be the guarantor of the constitution. Parliament and the courts have that role.
• http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/24/world/middleeast/egypt-protesters-and-police-clash-for-fifth-day.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&hpw
• Somalia Unidentified jets, possibly Kenyan, bombed Badade in Southern Somalia, a Shabab stronghold. Simultaneously, naval warships shelled Shahbad positions. We don't know what is happening with the Ethiopian troops that are supposed to have entered Somalia, but Bloomberg reports Somalia is not averse to the idea of an Ethiopian intervention. For their part the Ethiopians say they will not do a unilateral intervention, it has to be within a regional or international framework. Meanwhile, AU is sending two more battalions to reinforce its troops in Mogadishu.
• One hopes that people are fed up enough of Shabab that evreryone has decided to get together and wipe it out, but this beinG Somalia, its foolish to make any assumptions.
• PRC says it has a right to exercise in Western Pacific  and will go ahead with its plans in this regard. Japan says six PLAN warships have passed Okinawa in the last few days.
• Okay, its true we don't follow the politics of the Western Pacific closely. But who has said China does NOT have a right to exercise in WestPac? To the best of our knowledge nobody.
• All that people have said is they are worried about China's rising military power and they are rushing to get into a group hug with a United States that cant even pass an annual budget on time. Why is China getting bugged by this? It has its rights, and others have their rights.
• The rights of others cover the South China Sea. Should the US stop non-Americans from drilling in the Gulf of Mexico? Obviously not, and its not legal. Ditto China and the South China Sea.
• We want China to take a deep breath, take Prozac, and just calm down. China has the right to look to its security. Its already the world's biggest oil importer (we don't count US because Canada/Mexico routes do not have to be guarded). And everyone else has the right to look to their security.
• If China doesn't want coalitions built against it, the first step would be to respect other nations instead of pretending this is back in the 16th Century or whenever that the Chinese used to give orders to the barbarians. The second step would be to permit democracy. Unless China does that, it can have a $50-trillion GDP and it will still get no love.
• Right now with all their whining the Chinese are making the biggest mistake anyone can make, which is to be boring. People don't like whining bores. You think you're better than America, then offer a competing vision that can grab the world's attention. DON'T WHINE.
• Rule Britannia? So now UK Telegraph tells that when HMS Westminster went off to Libya, it had exactly four SAM rounds. Since the Seawolf missiles are fired in pair, it could have defended itself against precisely two targets. Is this the right time to utter a 'Cor Blimey?

0230 November 23, 2011

• Unimportant News US growth slips, Spain bonds at new highs, US deficit super-committee fails.
• Important News Kris Humphries, 72-day husband to Kim Kardashian, called her "fat".
• Unimportant News Syrian troops fire on Turkish pilgrimage bus, International Criminal Court concedes Libya's jurisdiction over Saif Gadaffi, Egyptian military makes soothingly unconvincing noises to Tahir square demonstrators
• Important News 49-year British wife falls over balcony railing in Tenerife hotel, luckily her ankle gets caught in another balcony's railing. After rescue, husband and wife are given lecture on safe sex by police.
• Even more unimportant news Sui Kyi to run for Burma parliament; Pakistan ambassador to US resigns; alleges the memo sent to US asking for Washington's help in dislodging Pakistan Army Chief/ISI Chief was planted by Pakistan Army to weaken Pakistani President, Bahrain Government report commissioned by King concedes some cases of overreaction in putting down pro-democracy protesters.
• Important News American frat pledge busted by security cameras after he tosses 16 dead ducks inside the front hall of a rival frat, will be charged by police.
• Absolutely, totally unimportant news Banks ask European Central Bank for $333-billion in emergency funds, worst hit since 2009, indicating they cannot get credit elsewhere.
• Important news Tiger wood's Number 1 mistress, 36, marries boy toy chef, 26.
• You call this news? From Xinhua of China: "The Greek public debt has risen to 360.379 billion euros (487.12 billion U.S. dollars), or 165.3 percent of GDP by the end of September, the Greek Finance Ministry announced on Tuesday. The figure was seven percent higher than three months ago, and 23.6 percent more than that of the same period last year."
• This is news Suspected that Kate "Mother-of-Eight" Gosselin has had plastic surgery.
• all real news items courtesy of UK Daily Mail, the world's greatest newspaper.
• Letter from RS I am unsure why you advocate drowning lobbyists. Do you advocate drowning doctors who provide medical care to politicians just because you don't like politicians?
• Editor Reader RS has a point.

0230 GMT November 22, 2011

Pizza is a vegetable? Has US gone starkers?

• So first you have pizza lobbyists trying to get pizza declared a vegetable on the basis that tomato paste is made from a vegetable, which it is not, because tomato is a fruit. Your typical pizza lobbyist is so devoid of a mind he can't even figure that out. The reason for this "pizza-as-a-vegetable" push is that then pizza need not be be kicked off the "healthy" school lunch menus US has mandated.
• Okay, so here you have pizza lobby wanting to feed at the public trough, because school lunches are paid for by us benighted taxpayers. But this development is matched by Yum Brands, a fast food chain, that wants permission to accept food stamps.
• But second, there is a larger issue here. Why are schools serving lunches in the first place? How can a school lunch, no matter how "healthy" compare to a home made lunch put together by Dad or Mom? Especially in these financially difficult times, schools should be focusing every penny on education, not on school lunches.
• Aha, some will say. One function of school lunches and breakfasts is to make sure less well-off kids eat, because a hungry kid is not a learning-receptive kid. Fair enough. But why is the State taking over the functioning of providing breakfasts and lunches? Add that money to the subsidies given to lower-income families and let them do the needful.
• Oh but we can't be sure that the parent(s) will be responsible. In which case we have a suggestion: lets take away children from their parents the minute children are born, and let the state bring them up. All public schools can become boarding schools, and children will be locked up 24/365 till they are of legal age so that there is no chance irresponsible parents can harm them. Come to think of it, a great deal of harm can be done to an unborn child, so the second a woman gets preggers, she will have to be seized and locked into a government facility - we can build additional floors for the schools to accommodate them - where the government will make sure they have a healthy pregnancy.
• Come on, people, its time this nonsense is stopped. Lobbyists should be taken and drowned in the Anacostia River - cheaper than shooting or hanging them. And breakfasts and lunches should be returned to where they belong, to the parents.
• [Point of clarifications: some Americans think "gone starkers" when one means "gone bonkers" is incorrect, as "starkers" means without clothes. No, no, and no. You can say "he was starkers" to indicate he was without clothes. But "gone starkers" means gone crazy, as in "stark raving bonkers".]
• [In case readers are wondering way we're using "without clothes" when we mean "n****": in New England, "n****" is a word that creates lust, and us New Englanders don't do lust. Having lust in your heart definitely counts as a demerit when old St. Peter does the tally before sending you down the down escalator.]

Justin Beiber

• We sincerely hope the scoundrelless (that's female scoundrel) who accused Justin Beiber of fathering her child goes to jail. First, she was an adult and Justin was not of consenting age when this encounter took place. Now you know and we know that it is the dream of every teenage boy to be seduced by his ultra-hot teacher or Mom's Hot Best Friend. But if you're going to put men away for messing with below age females, you have to be fair and do the same thing for women who transgress. Remember Title VII?
• But what is really, really bad, is that Justin has been saying he's never met the woman. And now it emerges that the child in question is another man's, and the mother has been lying through her toffers. No, the results of the DNA test haven't come in. The woman has been ratted out by people and by emails asking people to cover up who the real daddy is.
• We're not quite sure why this affair should make us so angry. But it does. and we're sure it's the Main Stream Media's fault. Everything is. We've often wondered when The Old Boy caught Eve with the Apple why she didn't deny everything and blame the MSM.
• In case the authorities have trouble punishing this child molester, we have a suggestion. Editor till very recently subbed at two middle schools, Newport Mills Middle and Silver Springs International, in Montgomery County. He had to stop subbing there because the little darlings are so out of control they give Editor elevated blood pressure and at his age getting elevated BP is not a priority. What we suggest is this woman be driven to either school, the doors locked, and the adults withdrawn a safe distance. After the middle school girls are done with this woman, there won't be enough of anything left for a funeral.

0230 GMT November 21, 2011

• Libyan ex-spy chief captured He was the last major regime figure on the loose. No ICC for him. They'll be hanging him ASAP. And it couldn't happen to a nicer guy.
• Egypt That the Egyptian army has zero sense and is headed for a fall has become increasing clear over the past few month, as the generals try to sidetrack the revolution. After trying everything else, the revolutionaries returned to Tahir square, where the police - backed by the army - thoughtfully killed twelve and wounded 1000 over the weekend. The demonstrations have spread to Suez and Alexandria.
• Where does the US stand? Washington will say it is working behind the scenes. Actually, one part of  Washington has been suffering acute stomach pains followed by many rushes to the latrines since the Islamists have become prominent - which of course another part of Washington knew would happen and has been working to co-opt the Islamists.
• But unless Washington moves very rapidly to send its running dogs, the Egyptian generals, back to the barracks, and accept its fave generals are going to get arrested and out on trial, America's credibility in the Arab Spring is going to get so low we'll be having tea with the Kangas in Oz. There's no wiggle room for the US at all, not even a little bit. The Egyptian army has gone back on its promises to the people, and the people do not trust it anymore - and particularly not after this fresh explosion of violence.
• As for the Egyptian generals thinking they can hold on to power - sorry, old buddies old pals. wrong country, wrong time. Leave Egypt while you can.
• Yes, the generals will undoubtedly manage to suppress this current uprising. For a few weeks. After that its going to be downhill, and if the generals dont go, its going to be Syria all over again.
• Also please to note that after the police cleared Tahir Square using live ammunition, Sunday night the protesters came right back. We hope the generals are taking note. And if they decide to tell their troops to fire on demonstrators, then they will be out of jobs that much sooner. The police has a stake in the old regime: thousands of them are facing arrest and trial for their misdeeds under Mubarak. But the army ahs already once refused to attack demonstrators, that was during the anti-Mubarak demonstrators. That's what bought Mubarak down. So we wonder why the generals think it will be any different this time around.
• Dutch and windmills fall out Sounds like the end of the world, because after all, the Dutch ARE windmills. But not the new kind. (a) Environmental opposition to the giant machines is building; and (b) Netherlands government's austerity program cuts out subsidies for windmills.
• http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/16/us-dutch-wind-idUSTRE7AF1JM20111116
• The environmental problem is acute in Europe, particularly small countries like Holland and England. In the latter country people are going bats because the monsters are up to 410-feet high and ruin the view. Ditto Holland. In US its different because we have so much empty space. of course, its possible that Texas gophers also object to having windmills in their yards, but since they don't have a lobby in Congress, it doesn't matter what they think.
• Among the companies supported by the Bush AltEnergy initiative is one which was building flywheels to store wind power. The technology works fine, but the company is in the dumps - we're not sure why.
• BTW, the Dutch are not in financial trouble as you might think since they are tightening their belts. Many countries are doing that because they don't want any whiff of trouble to attach to them. Poland is another country that is tightening up entirely on its own.
• Newt's Dollar Bonanza Much to our amazement, no one has made anything of the revelations that Newtie Newt fed at the public trough and stole $1.8-million of the public money acting as a consultant for Freddie Mac. Like all theft in Washington DC, it was all done legally, of course. Now comes the news that in the last eight years he has made $37-million "consulting" for health care companies. Newt's center  the idea that every earner above $50,000 be required to buy insurance or post a bond. And then people call Obama a Communist.
• We wonder what other money Newt made as a super-lobbyist.
• BTW, we want to share a little secret with our readers. Individual Americans may well be aghast at the notion the Government can force them to buy health insurance. But guess who wants Government mandated health care? The health insurance companies, of course. ObamaCare is going to expand their pool by another 50-million people. Its not visions of sugar plums dancing, its visions of dollars dancing.
• And still further - but this you know - guess who secretly supports ObamaCare. Big Business. Yup, because they will now stop offering health insurance to their workers. Its cheaper to pay the $2,000 fine than pay $8000 or more for a family of four.
• This is one reason we don't like to get into debates about the Bad Democrats or the Bad Republicans or whatever. Every last one of the people in power in this country are corrupt to the core. Big Business makes gazzillions of dollars BECAUSE of government. Some people are just very open about their corruption, like Chicago Democrats. Others are a bit more subtle about it, like GOP Presidential Candidate Newt.
• Oh yes: which state gets the most federal money? No, no, no people, it is not the Washington DC region. It is - hold your breath - the great freedom loving state of Texas.

0230 GMT November 20, 2011

• The ICC and Saif Gadaffi we confess to total bafflement by the International criminal Court's demand that Said Gadaffi, captured yesterday, be handed over. The ICC seems to base its case on two points. One, that he might meet his father's fate. Two, the ICC has a warrant for him and Libya is duty-bound to hand him over.
• Taking the second point first, so while Editor was napping did Earth suddenly acquire a world government that supersedes the laws of individual nations? The ICC has a right to demand service of its warrant if the man is caught outside Libya. But inside Libya, the law of the legitimate government must take precedence.
• Right, there is no Libyan Government at this time. But the tribesmen who have his custody say they will turn him over only when there is a government. Sounds to us the tribesmen want to save him from vigilante justice, which is dashed sporting of them considering.
• Next, where does the charter of the ICC say that if a danger exists that a legitimate government mistreats a citizen person for whom ICC has a warrant, the person has to be handed over to the Court? So what comes next? ICC knowing full well that terrorists seized by the US will be brutally tortured, will issue warrants for them and demand the US hand them over? ICC will issue warrants against President Obama because OBL, like Gadaffi, was served vigilante justice? ICC is making no sense.
• The point of the ICC is to intervene when an illegitimate government is committing crimes against humanity and the government's citizens have no recourse. But Libya does have a recourse - when the country gets a government, of course. ICC should stay out of this.
• US unlikely to reach debt agreement by deadline i.e., by Thanksgiving, which is four days away. Given that in 2013 automatic cuts to all programs start, we don't see why US politicians would expend political capital in coming to any deal. There's all kinds of vague threats if a deal is not reached the US will be downgraded again. does anyone think the politicians care? There's other threats US will look like blithering idiots in front of the rest fo the world, especially after telling the Europeans to get their act together. Do the politicians care if the US looks like blithering idiots? There are other prophecies saying Congress, whose approval rating is 9%, must act to preserve itself otherwise the people will vote the poltroons out. Okay, and then the people will vote another bunch of poltroons in.
• So basically we are not impressed by all the predications of doom, gloom, and chaos if the US doesn't reach a deficit reduction deal. And we're not even sure how badly Americans want a reduction deal right now, seeing as they have the shining example of the Euro economies on their way to recession because of tax increases and budget cuts.
• Turkish papers outlines possible Syria intervention Could this be a trial balloon or a warning to Assad of Syria? Turkish papers are saying that while Turkey will never intervene to change the regime, if things worsen it might consider a no-fly zone adjacent to its border because it doesn't want more refugees. It would also use the zone to protect opposition groups. Turkey's other concerns are that the crisis could destabilize the region and lead to war.
• Comment from Major A.H. Amin on our write-up on the Pakistan dust-up regarding an approach the Government made to Washington asking for help in dealing with General Kayani. Major Amin, whose articles we sometimes carry, feels that the Editor being and Indian is partial to General Kayani because Indians find it easier to deal with Pakistani military dictators than the country's civilian government.
• Before replying, we have to note that its quite common for Indians to say exactly what Major Amin is saying. At least when Editor was last in India twenty-one years ago Indians use to say it.
• Editor has no idea if they are still saying that, and if they are, they must be a bunch of blithering idiots. It was a stupid thing to say in the past, now it is even more stupid.
• India and Pakistan have fought not three wars as some people think, but five. Of these only one started when Pakistan was under a civilian government, 1947-48. The 1965, 1971, 1999, and the terror war were all started when Pakistan was under military rule. The almost war in 2002 also came when Pakistan was under military rule.
• Yes, the terror war was continued under Pakistani civilian leaders - Mrs. Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif. But did they have any choice? after all, then as now the military ruled whatever was Pakistan's notational government.
• There is a very widely accepted school of thought in India that were Pakistan to develop strong civilian institutions, conflict between the two countries could be greatly reduced. The Pakistan Army is seen as perpetuating the Indo-Pakistan conflict as a way of maintaining its hold on the country and as a way of doing just as it darn well wants without civilian interference. It is to this school Editor belongs - not to Pakistani Military Dictators are Easy To Get Along With school, because manifestly that is not true. These gentlemen are dangerous, erratic, vengeful, narrow-minded etc etc.
• Maybe things have changed and maybe Indians love Pakistani generals. Editor has not been back for 21 years so he cannot be included in whatever has changed since then. And while he was in India no one listen to him anyway, so what he thought was of no consequence.
• Even the neighbor's dog in Delhi didn't listen to the Editor. If he was outside when Editor and Mrs. R IV were walking to the market, he would follow, and refuse to go home despite any number of whackings he got. People on the street would be aghast at the whackings, What they didn't understand is that the dog took them as a sign of true affection because his owners just ignored him, and no amount of reasoning with him would get him to go home. The poor fellow got distemper and died. Very sad.

0230 GMT November 19, 2011

• US Successfully Tests Hypersonic Global Strike The missile, travelling at more than Mach 5 hit its target 3000-km away after a 30-minute flight. oddly, this particular vehicle is being developed by the US Army.
• Please to note there are several hypersonic vehicles under development. One is the DARPA's HTV-2, which failed in one test in 2010 and was partially successfully in 2011. That baby flies at Mach 20. USAF is also developing X-51 Waverider.
• Talking about these things, Editor has been reading Nick Cook's "The Search for Zero Point", and he brings up a point: how on earth does the B-2 get into the air? Compared to the B-52, engine-wise, this feller is downright 90-lb weakling. B-52 at normal loaded weight uses 1-lb thrust to put 1.8-lbs of aircraft into the sky. But B-2 uses 1-lb thrust to put 4.6-lbs of airplane into the sky. It has to be that something about the wing that actually reduces the effect of gravity. Not quite anti-gravity, but there's something very odd about this plane.
• US is supposed a country that can keep no secrets, but personally Editor has found US does quite well at keeping secrets when it wants to.
• And further talking of these things, we didn't realize the F-22 is still in production, though at the tail end. We hope someone is working on extending the production run now that the PLAAF has a sort-of-stealth and the Russians with the Indians are developing an F-22 analog, the PAK-FA. It had its first flight last year. Now, we're not suggesting India is a threat to the US, but Sukhoi projects a market of 600 aircraft outside Russia and India. That is, the aircraft will be available to anyone who wants to buy it. The plane will enter squadron service in 2016 - more like 2018 the way these things go, and okay, so its not going to be equivalent to the F-22, which continues being upgraded. Still, F-22 is not going to have the skies to itself soon enough.
• Yes, yes, there's the theory that except for supercruise F-35 has everything F-22 has and its cheaper. But F-22 is 7-tons heavier at normal take-off. Okay, so it has two engines instead of one, but this suggests F-22 can carry more by way of electronics, weapons, etc. And supercruise has its uses.
• India almost-ICBM test in February 2012 This will be Agni V, a 3-stage missile. We misspoke the other idea when we called the 3000-km Agni IV an ICBM. We somehow thought that was the ICBM but fired at reduced range. We were sort of right, because Agni V adds a third stage to an Agni IV. Agni 5 will become operational in 2014, and is still technically short of ICBM range by 500-km. A longer range missile will deliberately not be developed because India wants to make it clear Agni V is solely a defensive deployment against China and it has no intention of threatening any other part of the world.
• US Harrier purchase update defense News reports that the US Marines will not fly the British Harriers, rather, they will be used for spare parts to keep the AV-8 fleet going till 2025, by when the Corps expects to have transitioned to an all F-35 fleet.
• A British "Most-Wanted" Terrorist gets whacked in Pakistan courtesy of the CIA's Little Plane That Could. So the family back in UK is taking this badly because its the second son they've lost to drone attack.
• Hmmmm. There is a very simple way to stop your son from being killed by the CIA. If he won't listen to you and stay law-abiding, turn him in to the authorities. They'll straighten him out, he'll live, and there's every chance you'll see him again in a decade or two.
• http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/8900443/Britains-most-wanted-killed-in-drone-attack.html
• Tough choice? Sure. But this Pakistani family either chose not to make it or couldn't bring itself to make it. Now its paying the price.

The Pakistan Coup Crisis

• We've been staying out of this because frankly we don't think its Editor's business or India's business. Purely an internal matter, as the press flacks say. But we think we should comment on it, because it shows why Pakistan is not successful as a nation.
• Short story put shortly: after US killed OBL, the Pakistan civil government sent word to Admiral Mullen that it was afraid the military was going to stage a coup. If America would help, the Pakistan civil government would take out General Kayani, Army Chief, and the ISI chief, and it would turn over various AQ and Taliban people wanted by the US, like Mullah Omar and the Haqqanis, and it would cut ties with the Taliban etc etc.
• Admiral Mullen says yes, he did see the message but didn't take it seriously.
• And he was absolutely right to, and that he did not proves the point that we make again and again: US actually does understand what goes in Pakistan and it knows the Pakistanis inside out.
• Admiral Mullen was right because this was nothing more than a very cynical attempt by President Zardari, who exists at the pleasure of the Army Chief - as has been the case for every civilian leader since the 1950s - to get the US to do something he can't, which is to remove the army chief.
• In other words, Zardari was willing to sell out Pakistan for his personal gain, repeating a pattern that has existed in North West India for millennia. (Editor is from NW India, so this a mea culpa.) Us NW Indians are always looking to involve foreigners in our local affairs, to gain some ephemeral advantage or the other. In fact, Editor has gone as far as saying that the real patriots in India before Independence were the Bengalis, who of course us NW Indians make fun of as weak and un-martial. (This opinion did not elicit a happy reaction from many Indians, but folks, facts are facts. Read your history.)
• Now hold your horses you say: Sell out Pakistan? But wasn't Zardari promising to put Pakistan on the right course by getting rid of the terrorists and so on?
• We repeat: the head of Pakistan tried to sell out his country. See, you and I might think that Pakistan's tight embrace of terrorists of several ilks is the wrong course. But first, Pakistan has chosen the terrorist strategy as a logical weapon against its very much stronger neighbor, who it regards as an existential threat to its existence. Second, it is for the Pakistanis to decide what is the right policy for them, not for you and I. If Zardari thinks its the wrong policy, he has to figure out how to change it, and get the Pakistani people behind him, not for him to call in a foreign power. Yes, this would be lonely furrow to hoe and all that, but Tough Tootsie Rolls, Did the Germans who opposed Hitler have it easy? Did the Czechs and the Hungarians have it easy? Do the Syrians have it easy?
• Still further, Zardari's offer was something he had no ability to deliver. Its not as if you remove General Kayani and all is well. The next senior general will take over. That's not complicated, is it.
• And how precisely was the US to remove Kayani and the ISI chief? Send UAVs after them?
• Where Zardari really messed up was in trying to convince the USA that General Kayani was planning a coup and the US had to preempt him. The US and General Kayani share a bed - albeit a large one with a sword in between them. but if there is anyone who knows better than the Pakistanis what Kayani is thinking, its the Americans. And they knew jolly well General K. was planning no coup.
• So, you say, General K. is not selling out Pakistan to the Americans? Yes and no. He could tell the Americans to get out and take the consequences. The Army benefits from its alliance with the Americans. But that the Americans would make Pakistan suffer if they were kicked out is not in doubt. And General Kayani has done his uttermost to give the US as little as he possibly can.
• Whatever you think of him. General Kayani is a patriotic Pakistani. President Zardari is simply for sale to the highest bidder. And he's made a very bad mistake with this approach to the US. General K. neither forgives nor forgets. Of course Zardari stays only as long as is convenient to General Kayani. But now that General K has seen the snake he has been nurturing at his bosom, so as to speak, Editor''s guess is Zardari may soon find it expedient to enjoy his houses in London and Europe, before General K decides to put Zardari on trial for any one of the hundred massive scams to loot Pakistan the man has run, and continues to run.

0230 GMT November 18, 2011

• Europe Spain and France both took a beating. Yesterday new issue Spanish 10-year bonds went for 6.975%, a whopping 1.5% above what it paid just a month ago, and just a hair short of that supposed Point Of No Return, 7%. French 10-year bonds were at 3.636, which sounds good, till you realize German 10-year bonds are at 1.76%. That's half the French rate.
• So what's happening is this: France is telling Berlin that unless the European Central Bank starts printing Euros and buying debt - as much as 3-4 trillion worth, Euro and Europe are going to go down the potty. This printing money is, of course, what we did in the US when we got into trouble. The Germans are saying No Way Jose or whatever their equivalent expression is, because (a) printing money means inflation and you won't get agreement from us even if we're dead; and (b) You all - France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece etc - are a bunch of lousy lazy freeloading bums whose spending is out of control and you'd better cut, cut again, and cut some more after that (sound familiar?).
• As the Euro plea that if they keep cutting they will get into recession and riots, Berlin says "Tough Tootsie Rolls" or whatever the equivalent German expression is. You have to be aware that Germany in the last 10 years tightened its belt, cut spending, reduced protections for labor and so and on, which is why the German economy has been going great guns, so as far as the Germans are concerned, its time for the other Euros to swallow their medicine.
• The other Euros are saying "If you don't cooperate, your export markets will collapse, because guess where we were buying from when we were overspending? We were buying from you."
• The Germans are singing "We will not be moved" or its German equivalent.
• Meanwhile the British are unhappy because if the Euro contagion spreads further, the British banks that are holding whacking great sums of European loans are going to go down the Thames. We're told the Thames is a lot cleaner than it used to be, but glugging Thames water is not what you want to do after you've been drinking Dom Perignon. (Editor drinks tap water, so he has no sympathy for British bankers.) So that's why the Britis are in a foul mood about the Germans because as far as London is concerned, the Germans are standing smack in the middle of Europe in their stubborn, sausage, and lederhosen sort of way and not giving a darn about anyone including the Brits.
• And the Germans are saying "You know what? You're absolutely right. We don't give a darn about you or anyone else."
• Berlo is plotting a return That's all we can tell you because we know no more. Before he left office, reader Luxembourg tells us. Berlo released an album of love songs. Message to Berlo from Editor: "We defended you when you caught flak for saying you'd slept with 8 women in one night, mainly because we know you had a jolly good snooze while the women went home, but this album of love songs is totally tasteless. You're seventy-five years old, good buddy. You've got to stop making an exhibition of yourself."
• And if that wasn't bad enough, we had Piper Laurie (who we thought was the cutest thing) telling America that when she slept with President Reagan (during his starlet days) he kept boasting about what a great lover she was, and when she said she wasn't satisfied with his performance he said there had to be something wrong with her and she needed to see a doctor. Thank goodness Prez Reagan is dead, we don't know how we could have stood the embarrassment had he been alive. But what's the matter with everyone? Why do they have to share this information with everyone? When Mrs. R. IV announced she'd been faking it for decades, did Editor tell the whole world about her complaint? Of course not. He has some dignity, thank goodness.
• The F-35 We've been deliberately avoiding the subject because we were hoping people who say "Why do we need the F-35, there's no potential enemy who can near match what we have right now" would have seen the light by now.
• People, aircraft are machines. No matter how lovingly you maintain them - and US military does a great job, we have to say - and no matter how much you upgrade them, like any machine they run down. F-16, for example, was built for 8,000 flying hours and now has been extend to 13,000, or 30-years, and that is a whacking large number of hours. You can't just keep extending the thing. Okay, the B-52s are going to end up at 80-years of service when they finally fly into the sunset, but (a) the thing is built like a tank; and (b) it does not do low-level, high-g flying.
• As it is the US cut the F-22 from a 750 planned buy to 110, and cut the B-2 from a 132 to twenty-one. BTW, please note if we had 100 B-2s today, US could put 4000 1000-lb precision guided bombs on target in one sortie. we wouldn't be sitting here saying "ooooh, we can't whack DPRK and we can't whack Iran and we can't whack Syria" if we'd had the full monty B-2s. The people who cancelled the B-2 thought they were being very clever. Lets not make the same mistake again. Tomorrow when China has 300 stealth fighters people are going to be weeping wailing about the lost F-22s. Okay, we know the existing F-22 fleet can known down the entire PLAAF without losing one aircraft, and that China Stealth is going to be kind of pathetic, but why do we want to be taking these chances?
• Please to note 10,000 F-86 Sabres alone were produced and the plane was in US front line service for less than 10-years. And US had boat-loads of other aircraft (10,000 if for all air forces). Of course, the plane cost $2-million in today's money. Anyway.
• Letter on Washington lobbyists from reader Mark E Today’s 11/17/11 entry mentions the D.C. “feeding trough.”  I wanted to tell you this:  I was born and raised in D.C. (yes, one of the few).  Since I was born in 1943, I remember vividly the acres of “temporary” government buildings that sat unoccupied for years after WW2.
• And since I grew up near downtown, I also remember the K St. area skyline of 3-story walkups and flophouses.  But I left D.C. in my late teens, never to return as a resident.  A few years ago I came back and visited family for about ten days and had time to revisit the City.  What astounded me was how the skyline north of Penn. Ave. was filled with gleaming 5-story office buildings.  It looked more like Paris than the rundown city of the forties and fifties.  Then it hit me!  As far as the eye could see were LOBBYISTS.  The Capital, Senate and House office buildings, Supreme Court, Fed, Justice Dept, etc hadn’t changed much.  But the LOBBYISTS!  What a sight!  Big Oil, big Pharma, big Retail, big Auto, big Unions, big Sierra Club, big everything.  Amazing!

0230 GMT November 17, 2011

• European Bond Yields Doubtless readers are slapping their heads and asking: "Why do I need to know this?". But these days the global economy is strategic issue Number One. For one thing, if Europe gets into worst trouble, US economy also takes a hit; already many American analysts think a second recession is inevitable. That will affect domestic stability. The first recession has been really rough on people, another recession, this time with Europe is super-crisis is not going to be met with same passivity Americans dealt with the first.
• For another thing, expect further major cuts in Euro defense spending because almost without exception the Euro governments have to tighten belts, and defense is one place that in Europe these days at least, is easy to cut. Of course, you may ask what precisely are they going to cut, seeing as very few countries meet the 2% GDP on defense NATO guideline. But that's another debate.
• Getting a hold on the US deficit is going to become a lot harder is the US economy heads for a second recession, and like it or not, the US defense budget is going to come under very severe pressure.
• So: back to Euro bond yields. If you look at the figures (which surprisingly not in one place, we had to do a lot of searching to get them all, you'll see what the problem is:
• 10-year bonds 11/16/2011 (%) GR 28.7; PO 11.3; IR 8.2; IT 7; SP 6.4; BE 4.9; FR 3.65; PRC 3.6; NE 2.44; UK 2.2; US 2.02; JAP 2.02; GER 1.84.
• First, America, you are no longer considered the best bet. Germany pays less for its 10-year bonds than we do. Admittedly that is a big simplification, but who would have figured - say four years ago - that our bonds would not be considered safest.
• Second, look at Greece. If you thing 28% is an absurd rate, you're right. No one can pay that rate. European Central Bank can huff, puff, do what it likes, but Greece is history. BTW, in the middle of October the yields on Greek 1-year bonds reached 188%.
• The Greek PM won a vote of confidence 255 out of 300 seats, and the media says this shows that the way is clear for the PM to push through even tougher austerity measures. As if. Don't for a minute think the Greek people have agreed for the government to tighten the vice even tighter. This whole thing could fall apart any day.
• US-Australia deal on Marines Two hundred and fifty Marines will start rotating every six months through Darwin, Australia next year, that's a company with logistical support and a few helicopters. The number will gradually increase to 2500 by 2016, which is a battalion air-ground team.
• Chinese reactions  The Chinese pride themselves on the subtlety of their diplomacy. Here are some quotes from them which show just how subtle they are:
• "'If Australia uses its military bases to help the US harm Chinese interests, then Australia itself will be caught in the crossfire"; "Australia surely cannot play China for a fool. It is impossible for China to remain detached, no matter what Australia does to undermine its security''; "...the US was trying to use Australia to contain China in a ''pincer'' movement. He said it would be a historical setback if the US was trying to provoke a ''21st-century new Cold War''." These three quotes are from http://www.smh.com.au/national/chinese-warn-of-crossfire-over-base-20111116-1njd1.html
• Definitely us Americans are too crude to be anywhere near as sophisticated as the Chinese.
• What precisely is bothering the Chinese is a bit difficult to see. China's GDP is approaching $6-trillion, and it spends less than 2% of that on defense. Even with the global slowdown, and an expected China slowdown, its GDP should rise to $12-trillion by 2025. Four percent of that would be half-a-trillion dollars, four times what China spends now. China will be outspending the US in the Pacific. By the time 2025 rolls around, the way the US is going, we'll be lucky to have 8 carrier battle groups, 8 army divisions, two Marine divisions, and 10-12 tactical fighter wings - for the whole globe.
• Subtle message to Beijing from someone who is on the American side: "Take a chill pill, homey".
• Newt Gingrich took $2-million as a consultant to Freddie Mac (Washington Post, Bloomberg says $1.6- to 1.8-million). After his contract ended in 2008. Newt became a critic of government sponsored enterprises.
• We repeat again: whether its Democrat pigs or GOP pigs, they all want to feed at the public trough. When is America going to realize everyone politician and businessperson is an opportunist in this country, as are lobbying groups including non-profit groups who claim to represent the public interest.
• (True Confession time: if Editor was getting his, he wouldn't be complaining.)
• UK Telegraph's Matt Cartoon The protagonist wife has caught him in bed with another woman: "Darling...I can explain. It's all the Euro's fault". http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
• US Navy to buy mothballed British Harriers As part of its military drawdown, the British withdrew their Harriers from service and put them in store. US Navy wants all 74 of them plus available stores of spares for the Marine Corps. The USN expects to get the recently upgraded jets at bargain prices, and says the conversion to US standards is easily made. The Marines will use the Harriers to replace some of their F-18Ds which need to be retired. And the Harriers provide a hedge against further F-35 delays.
• India successfully test-fires Agni IV ICBM The last test, December 2010, failed. This one succeeded at 3,000-km range. when operational Agni IV will give India all-China coverage. The Chinese have, of course, for years had all-India coverage.
• Incidentally, the 17-ton, 800-kg payload missile was launched from a truck. Interesting.
• Prime Minister of Indian state of Uttar Pradesh proposes a division into four states UP has already been divided, in that the mountain districts were split into a separate state and the eastern districts joined to another new state. even the diminished UP is equal to one of the largest countries in the world, population wise. So it does need to be split.
• But what we don't understand is - and hope readers can explain this - how does splitting UP benefit the current Chief Minister, the amazingly corrupt Ms. Mayawati? Why would she want to diminish her power?

0230 GMT November 16, 2011

"My Little Cesspool"" Reader Luxembourg in Chicago

• Local CBS station, Channel 2 Chicago had a report about Huffington's new book "How to Overthrow the Government."  It details all the insider trading that people in Congress do. Chief among them was Chicago's new Mayor/Glory Boy/Media Darling/Democrat/former Obama Chief of Staff Rahm Emmanuel.
• Rahm served on the boards of Fannie Mae/Freddy Mac, cashed in his chips right before they imploded for a nice bundle of change, and I believe he also got a couple of pensions out of it too. Low life has been living off the public trough his whole life, was the guy who pushed the Solyndra billions down the toilet, same guy who last week proposed a $1,200 fine for weeds in Chicago. The Chicago Way. Our Fearless Leader is well schooled in it. Madigan has been Speaker forever, working on his 5th Governor, he's really the Governor, top of the list for a prison cell - except his daughter Lisa Madigan is the Illinois Atty General. Convenient huh ? My Lil cesspool.
• My property taxes have doubled in the last 5 years like yours. County Treasurer didn't even try to hide it, sent an insert with the bill unfunded pensions. State, County and City employees - union-loyal Democrat votes.
• Editor's reponse We were discussing Congressional wheeling dealing, lobbyists, pay-offs and the like with a Washington insider the other day. Insider merely expressed amusement at our outrage. This is a summary of what he said.
• Life is about competing interests, whether you're talking of your marriage, your children, your boss, your local government, your Congress, international alliances, whatever. if everyone stood on principle, what would you get? No need to guess, because we're already there. You'd get gridlock. Life is about compromises. The compromises that Congresspersons have to make have been compared to making sausages: the product may be yummy, but the making would, frankly, lead you to puke.
• Previously the sausage-making process was hidden from Congress in that the work of the committees was not publicized.  So you, as Jane and John Q Public, got mainly to hear about the debate when bills came to the floor. But they came to the floor after the real work had been done behind the scenes. As a consequence of Watergate, the American people demanded transparency from Congress. The got it. And the Law of Unintended Consequences took over. Since the people are now exposed to the sausage-making, the deals they can cut have become fewer and fewer. The internet has led to a situation where the minute your Congressperson does something some constituents don't like, a campaign is immediately launched to punish the heretic.
• The citizens influencing Congress are by no means the majority. The majority accepts compromise. The citizens who get after their Congressperson are the activists, and their views, ignorance, and passion rule.
• There is NO Democrat who doesn't realize the Age of Entitlement is over. There is NO Republican who doesn't realize taxes have to be raised. Congresspeople are far from stupid; it takes a great deal of smarts just to get elected. But in this age of transparency and the Internet, both sides are being held hostage by their activists. The activists do not represent the will of the majority. They represent their own interests, which may be ideological purity, or downright dirty self-serving. The majority is willing to accept more taxes and entitlement cuts. The activists on both sides are having nothing to do with compromise, the dirtiest of all dirty words.
• Because the activists bring passion and ignorance to the table, they shape not just the debate, but also the vote.That's why nothing is getting done. And you, Mr. Editor, are one of those ideological activists when it comes to American foreign policy. You don't want to compromise. Bomb North Korea. Whack Iran. Hang Assad of Syria. Execute terrorists on capture.  Abandon Israel. Double defense spending and station five carrier battlegroups in the China Seas, as was the case in Second Indochina. Snatch Chinese satellites from space. Drone Al-Shabab. Embargo Venezuela till Chavez falls. Destabilize Evo of Bolivia. Machinegun anyone who crosses America's borders except with valid papers presented at a customs entry point. Impose 200% countervailing duties on Chinese imports. Mr. Editor, uou're as much as problem as those you criticize for the gridlock.
• (In case you're wondering which Editor the Washington Insider is referring to, it is yours truly. Editor doesn't say these things because he doesn't want to be to the extreme right of the American right, and lose whatever credibility he has. Of course, readers will say anyone who can never get a date for any day of the week has no credibility to begin with, because there is no person anywhere in the world who doesn't get any date at all. (Editor's request to readers: lets not get personal and abusive here, folks.)
• So there you have it, folks. Doubtless graft and grift is more open in Chicago than most other places. But East, West, South, or North of Eden, little town, big town, metropolis, your town's governing body or the office of the US president (ditto the rest of the world) everything is drowned in corruption. Its the human condition. What is to be done? Editor has no idea.
• Occupy Wall Street Being one of the 99%, Editor has a certain sympathy with the Occupy lot. Still, as someone pointed out to us, why were occupy people being given a pass from permits and other such stuff, and what is this camping business when they're creating a major public nuisance. Etc.
• New York cleaned out Zucotti Park yesterday 1 AM. Occupy challenged in court, court ruled for the city. Mayor Bloomberg says demonstrators can return, but not to camp. Even though Bloomberg is one of the 1%, we have to admit this is reasonable. After all, Occupy don't own the places they occupy, and others are deprived of the use of the parks.
• Zucotti, we learned, is actually private property. Presumably the owner, a reality company, is one of the 1% - a building in downtown Manhattan has got to cost several tens of millions. So this was pretty decent of them to let protesters use their property till now, at least.
• With the exception of Oakland, the authorities have gone out of their way to avoid violence. This is quite remarkable given we are talking of American authorities. In a strange sort of way we suspect that (a) even the authorities have sympathy with the demonstrators, and (b) after the Arab spring even Americans are cautious about clubbing demonstrators and so on.
• One New York Occupier said the clamp-down was good, because now five volunteers would come for every one previously present. We don't think so, because people are not banned from demonstrating, no heads were broken, and so on.
• The other peculiar thing is we read a lot of people and hear some saying: "Occupy has made its point, now what do they propose to do to change things? Why are they not organizing political campaigns and so on, because after all, that's the way things are changed in America." Americans are essentially a practical people, and really have no time for romantic anarchists. The whole Self-Improvement thing in America is all about: "You have a problem that bugs you? Work to change it."
• Just imagine: American professor finds attractive people get paid more and are more successful So we're waiting for the study that discovers the sun rises in the east, that chocolate taste good, and that death and taxes are inevitable. Of course, it had to be UK Daily Mail that published the story. All its weird stories on yesterday's front page are from America except one. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2061405/It-pays-pretty-Professor-s-20-year-study-reveals-good-looking-employees-paid-better-perks.html

0230 GMT November 15, 2011

• Greek conservatives refuse to sign austerity pledge saying that while they support fiscal austerity, they reject anything that makes Greece's current economic situation worse. The conservatives New Democracy has 84 seats and its ally the Popular Orthodox has 16. That is 100 seats in a 300 person Parliament.
• The conservatives have said they will join a national unity government with the Greek Socialists (152 seats). But if they maintain their stance there will be trouble, because many in the Socialists and other parties are also against harsh economic policies dictated by Brussels. Its too early to tell yet, but it is possible the Greek Parliament will reject the conditions of the EU bail-out.
• On the other side, the EU is absolutely adamant that Greece accept not just harsh measures, but also observers who will intrusively monitor Greek finances. While Greece could arrive at a situation where the current prime minister feels new elections are neccessary to give him a mandate to rule - and to impose Brussels-mandated measures, the EU is also adamant that these measures be unilaterally accepted by Greece and not be subject to political decisions. The EU has said if its conditions are not met as is, there will be no bail out.
• While the big bail out of 130-billion Euros is not due till January 2012, so that theoretically there is time to work out a solution at home, a smaller bailout of about 5-billion Euros is due in the next few weeks, and presumably EU will withhold that if its demands are not met.
• Please keep in mind this 130-billion Euro package is the second large bail out. The first, 110-billion Euros, was agreed on in May 2010, and there has been a constant pattern of EU bullying Greece at each step.
• Will Greece's famous prickly pride get in the way of the bail-out? Are both sides playing chicken to see who blinks first? - the failure of Greece will be the end of the Eurozone as we know it, so the cunning Greeks may still have some cards to play. Or is Greece so beaten down economically that it will simply accept every humiliation the EU imposes? Stay tuned.
• The EU is anti-democratic What is truly horrifying about all this is that the EU has very clearly implied it does not believe in democracy. At all costs it wants to avoid a Greek referendum on the bail-out, which of course will become a referendum on the European Union and which could well end very badly for the dream of a united Europe. It has clearly stated that it has no time for the messy process of people having their say and coming to a consensus. EU says its bureaucrats know best, and Their Will Will Be Done - or else. The EU's stand is all the more astonishing because the EU is composed of vibrant democracies.  They seem to have elected a supra-national body that has no use for democracy.
• It seems to us that the EU's position is counterproductive. It's all fine and well to say: "We've all put too much into creation of the EU to have the will of the people destroy the EU", but sooner or later people in the Union will have their say. if the Greek people reject the EU's term, it is not as if the Greek government can stage a coup and subordinate itself to Brussels. The Greek government will have to obey the will of its people.
• It seems to us better to allow democracy to arrive at a consensus - frustrating, time-consuming, and down-right risky as the process may be, as we well known in America. Ultimately it is a question of legitimacy. Right now the EU is flirting with illegitimacy by refusing to let Greeks decide for themselves. How can this be good for the long-term health of the EU?
• Oh the irony of it all if you have played the board game "Diplomacy", you will know how rapidly Germany comes to dominate the board, and how it invariably loses, assuming all plays are equally skilled. In fact, Editor can share with you that about the only way to win the game is to play Britain, and you can sometimes win if you play Russia.
• The reason for Germany's rapid rise its strategic position in Central Europe. The reason for its fall is that ultimately everyone comes to their sense, forms unlikely alliances, and defeats Germany.
• No experts on medieval European history we, but if you will permit a simplification, the successor to the Roman Empire was the Holy Roman Empire, a lethal combination of church and military power. The Holy Roman Empire was, of course, dominated till its end by what became Germany. When France - which had been one kingdom with Germany, broke off to become a major power, France and Germany clashed and France was defeated thrice - Franco-Prussian War, World War I and II.
• When World War II broke, a very fed up world - which at the time really meant US and Europe - decided Germany had to be put down once and for all. Of course, if the US had stayed out of the European war, its quite possible in Europe at least it would have been Deutschland Uber Alles.
• Once Germany was defeated in 1945, the west at least decided it had to avoid the mistakes of 1918. West Germany was not punished, it was rebuilt, but this time it was placed into a tight alliance with the west. The idea was for Germany not to be able to move in any direction because it had too much to lose. When the USSR fell, Germany became reunified, and it became all the important to lock Germany down.
• But in the Year of Our Lord 2011, who is giving the marching orders in Europe. Its Germany.
• And Germany has even stopped pretending that it is in alliance with France. It's made very clear if the worst comes to the worst, and the Euro collapses, and a two-tier EU happens, France should not automatically assume it will be part of the first tier. Austria, Finland, Netherlands will be part of the first tier. Ring any bells, people?
• If someone in 1945 had written a novel mirroring actual events of 1945-2011, s/he would have been credited with a fantastic imagination. Truth can be stranger than fiction. The rise of Germany - once again - to dominate Europe is an example.
• Please note, BTW, that this time, unlike in 1917 and 1941, there is no Russia/Soviet Union to block Germany's rise to the East.

0230 GMT November 14, 2011

• Chinese ratings agency warns of another possible US downgrade Dagong Global Credit Rating  a year ago downgraded the US from AA to A+. In August it dropped the US to A. Now its is threatening to drop the US further.
• Any normal American reading this news will be tempted to say "$#@&*$ China and (*&^%$#@ Dagong, whoever they are". But look at how the US looks to the rest of the world. We can't even get a national budget passed, plans to reduce the deficit are gridlocked, and even if those plans passed, all they would achieve is slow done the inexorable march to a Banana Republic like level of debt. We're already at 100% of GDP, by the way, a distinction we reached in August. For 2011, our budget deficit is 10%, which is definitely Banana Republic Land. The world is beating up Italy, but its 2011 budget deficit is 4%.
• Now, of course as with any financial figures you can slice and dice anyway you like to prove your pet point. So you can the US dollar is the world's reserve currency, the Euro is not, so that when we issue more debt, we are really just owing ourselves. Only a bit more than a quarter our debt is owned by foreigners. Its not the same for Italy, where foreigners own about half the debt (all figures approximate). Americans can further argue that if the foreigners were to sell their holdings, where would they put the money? Certainly the yen, yuan, and euro are not candidates for trillions of dollars worth of bonds. Etc.
• Okay, we can fudge the figures all we want, but can we at least concede the possibility that foreigners looking at our debt will not look at it under the most favorable set of parameters? Dagong is said to be an independent ratings agency that does not take its cue from Communist Party of China headquarters. and we can't even claim to be in Italy's position: with the exception of interest, Italy runs a budget surplus. We are nowhere near that happy state.
• http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/nov/12/chins-threatens-us-with-new-debt-downgrade
• Libya and Egypt In case you're wondering, nothing particularly happy-making is happening in Libya or Egypt. Libya is dividing along tribal lines (not unexpected), and in Tripoli rival militias from time to time have a go at each other. You have thousands of armed young men, seemingly answerable to no one, and the prospect suffices to make anyone nervous. A national unity government has still not been formed.
• In Egypt the Army has made it clear it will not give up power, no matter what the people want. Actually, the majority are still happy to support the army, because they fear the chaos that true democracy will bring.
• But again, none of this is any reason to worry. Revolutions take time to play out. In Iraq, for example, but for the US troop presence, there would have been a bloody civil war that might still be continuing.
• Syria After being told by the Arab League that it is being suspended, Damascus has shifted to a 2-track policy. On the one hand, Arab embassies are being attacked. Turkey is flying its diplomatic staff and nationals out. On the other, the regime is telling the Arab League, no need to suspend us, lets continue talking and we'll even agree to your stationing observers.
• The problem is the AL moved only after Syria repeatedly refused to implement its agreement with the AL which was intended to pave the way for a peaceful resolution. Damascus is now worried that with the AL disowning Syria, the way for international intervention could be open. So far Russia and China have been covering president Assad's sorry behind at the UN, and blocking strict action. But if the AL makes Syria a pariah, Moscow and Beijing are going to be hard-pressed to defend Assad.
• Shocking news Reader Luxembourg sends the results of British studies  suggesting  "that when men see a woman wearing very little they focus on her body and less on her mind." http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-2060374/Men-women-bare-flesh-regarded-intelligent-study-finds.html?ITO=1490
• What's really shocking about this is the implication that men have ANY focus whatsoever on women's minds.

0230 GMT November 13, 2011

• US Marines/Darwin, Australia As far as we've been able to figure, USMC will use Darwin for training and advance basing of equipment. If this is correct, we estimate less than 100 Marines will be permanently stationed at Darwin.
• Former Assistant Secretary for State Roger Noriega says according to his sources poor Hugo is going to cash in his chips for sure, possibly in less than six months.
• Italy we were sad to learn our fave political playboy Bunga Bunga Berlo was forced to leave via a side door of the Presidential Palace to escape a crowd of thousands chanting "buffoon, buffoon." This is just so rude.
• Meanwhile, though Italian Parliament has passed an austerity package, well-known - and cynical - economist Nouriel Roubini says it will be evident by the end of next year that the package is insufficient.
• Also meanwhile, we learn Berlo's successor will get a salary of 25,000 Euros (about $35,000) a month - for life, doesn't matter how long or not his government lasts. This salary is given to a Senator for life, and Monti has not stood for office to become Senator for Life. The Italian Prez appointed him. Something is not ethical in the Land of Italy.
• Keystone XL Pipeline The route is going to be reviewed. Meanwhile, other pipeline operators have contingency plans to increase the throughput of their pipelines to take Alberta tar sands oil. Apparently its a matter of more powerful pumping stations. Some thought has been given to a refinery in Alberta, but apparently this will be more expensive than sending the oil to US Gulf Coast refineries. Further on the horizon are other contingency plans to move the crude to US pipeheads using rail or barge, which of course will increase the carbon footprint.
• Don't except a rerouted pipeline to end the controversy. Greens have gotten it into their head that Alberta tar sands should be blocked because of the carbon footprint.
• Meanwhile, many Canadians think a west-east pipeline should be built, to take Alberta oil to Eastern Canada, where it would replace Saudi-origin imports. Tar sand interests have been threatening a pipeline to the Pacific for China to pick up the oil, but environmentalists say that the pipeline will cross the land of several Indian tribes who are opposed to it. So they don't see that alternative as a serious proposition.
• Russia's Mars Jinx Continues Sixteen of 18 Russian Mars missions have failed. The current mission to the Martian moon Phoebus, where the probe was supposed to scoop up material and return it to earth for study, is in trouble. It was also to out a Chinese satellite in Mars orbit. Russian sources say the mission has failed, and the announcement will be made in a few days.
• Though the probe reached orbit as planned, the probe's booster rocket did not fire so the probe did not begin its journey. While Russian scientists were working on the problem, revival was considered a long shot, and now is no shot at all. The Russians spent only $167-million on the probe, which suggests that many design compromises were made.
• Meanwhile, Reader Luxembourg updates us on the US Curiosity Mars Rover The launch is set for November 25. The rover is the size of a Volkswagen, and will explore Gale Crater for two years. The price tag is $2.5-billion, and makes us a bit nervous. If it all works as it should, doubtless Curiosity will be spectacular success. But the US's all-or-nothing approach is worrying, because things go wrong all the time. Perhaps two missions within that budget would have been more prudent, even if the science return is less. This way if one fails, there would be a backup. If Curiosity fails, that will be it for a good long while.
• Spirit and Opportunity, launched eight years ago, have cost $1-billion including five extensions, which have given 25-times the 90-day mission time originally planned for. Each rover weighed 185-kg as opposed to Curiosity's 900-kg. It will traverse 19-km, as opposed to the planned 600-meters for the earlier pair.
• The Hypocrisy of Michael Moore UK Daily Mail has done something useful for once. It has broken the news, including photographs, of Michael Moore's nice country home, said to be worth $1-million. If you look at the size of the thing its likely more. He also owns an apartment in New York. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2060704/Luxury-99-cent-Americans-dream--Photographs-reveal-Michael-Moores-stunning-waterfront-mansion.html
• Okay, so there's nothing that says a "radical" has to live in a one-room apartment and own only two pairs of jeans and eat rice-and-beans every day. But for Mr. MM to be cavorting with the 99% lot is a bit much. He needs to have the decency to announce "mea culpa" and all that, and explain he grew modestly wealthy leading counter-culture attacks on the 1%, but thanks to his good luck and hard work, he is now one of the 1%. Then he should have the decency to shut his mouth and go do whatever the 1% does for amusement.

0230 GMT November 12, 2011

• Greece Unemployment is 19%, and the real process of squeezing the Greek people for money to pay the nation's debts has just begun. And by 2020, debt will still be 120% - a level held untenable for Italy, which has a much more robust economy than Greece's.
• We'd like the learned financial institutions of the EU to tell us: do you really think you are going your money back, even if you've accepted a 50% write-off?
• Veteran's Day In Britain they call it Armistice Day, because the World War I ceasefire was called at 110 on November 11. Apparently only 52 of England and Wales' 16,000 villages escaped losing someone killed in the war, and no villages in Ireland or Scotland have so been identified. The British call them "Thankful Villages". Fourteen villages are termed as doubly thankful, because all their men came home alive from both World Wars. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-15671943
• Penn State This is truly none of our business, but we though readers might be interested in the law as related to teacher responsibilities. Teachers are supposed to report any case where they even suspect - just suspect - that child abuse is taking place. That includes all abuse, not just sexual abuse. A teacher cannot just go to an administrator and then maintain s/he has done their duty. The law, at least in Maryland, is the teacher must contact Child Protective Services as soon as possible, and file a report, at least first orally, then on paper. It is not for a teacher to investigate. The standard is "suspect". Failure to report on suspicion can lead to the loss of the teacher's job, plus other action as may be taken.
• The teacher's name is not given to anyone - her/his anonymity is shielded by law.
• This creates an Orwellian situation. Anyone - absolutely anyone - can call Child Protective services and say "I believe Mr. Smith (or Mrs. Smith) is abusing her/his child", without the least basis, and Child Protective Services swoops in. "Specially trained" officials interview your child, to "discover the truth". It doesn't matter if you try hard enough, you can get a four- or a six-year old to say anything. Your children (all of them) can be taken away from you, and you can go to jail. Once freed, you are a registered sex offender, and society may as well brand your forehead, because the consequences are the same.
• We like to believe society holds a person innocent till proven guilty. In child abuse situations, its the other way around: you have to prove to the satisfaction of the investigating officers that you are innocent. And aside from any over-zealousness of the sort people who have power exhibit, the Child Protective Service staff are also under pressure. If they make a mistake, and it turns out abuse has taken place, well, their jobs are on the line too.
• Editor has always been struck by the extreme hypocrisy we Americans exhibit toward our children. We are so very ready to abandon them just because we are not getting on with our partner, and we are so very comfortable that so many children live in poverty and/or without health insurance. It seems almost as if we know we as a society treat our children badly, and we excuse ourselves by showing our "concern" when a child may be abused.
• Editor twice was in situations where he suspected abuse. Knowing the law, he immediately made his reports in required format. In one situation it was obvious his student was severely undernourished. Since the student was older than 18, Editor talked to him several times to find out what the problem might be. The student's answers were highly evasive, and it was pretty obvious the student was trying to protect his mother. Well, when the investigation took place it turned out the woman had a low-paying job, was desperately in debt, the father had run off years ago and no support was forthcoming, and she was working three jobs to pay her bills. She received food stamps, and by mid-week those were gone, so for three days in the week it was scraping by as best as possible. Obviously the student would protect his mother. He dropped out of school shortly after the investigation, because he didn't want to come back to a place where the adults knew how poor he was.
• In the second case, Editor had a student who went through episodes of wild anger followed by complete listlessness and lack of interest in anything. One day after she got into a physical fight, instead of calling the administrator Editor took her out of the room to ask what was the problem. She said she hadn't been getting along with her mother and now her mother had thrown her out of the house. (She was sixteen.) She was moving between houses, staying with friends or anyone who offered to help, then moving on when it got too much for those helping her. She begged Editor not to tell anyone, because it would get around and the other students would be even more mean to her.
• Unfortunately, under the law Editor had no choice. He made his report. What happened he doesn't know - the authorities are in no way obligated to tell the person reporting what happened. The student did finish out the year and Editor heard she had gone to live with her sister in another city.
• Letter from Eric Cox You have accurately described the dilemma of many American homeowners.   In spite of its many problems, California passed something called Proposition 13 back in 1978. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_13_%281978%29_
• This did not prevent the rise in property taxes but it did severely limit the rate of their increase, except in the event of a sale, when the buyers at least knew what burden they were assuming.   State and local government spending in California has still increased annually, but I cannot doubt that both would have increased more without Prop 13.
• You are also correct to note that your wages have not increased 50 % in seven years.  I suspect that adjusted for inflation (the stretching of the measuring stick) they have not gone up 50% in twenty years or more.  That has certainly been true for workers in the industries that I follow.  The exception, of course, is unionized government employees, (some of whom are also work for the government), who have done better.  (Without considering compounding, 50% in seven years is just over 7% per year, and inflation has been very tame over that same period.)
• The government spending we have is not sustainable under our present system of government.  As you correctly note, other countries spend a higher percentage of their GDP as government expenditures.  And, they have systems of government that differ from ours.
• So, either the level of government spending must changed or our system of government must be changed.   Details can be argued, but the basic issue is starkly clear.
• I hope your employment situation improves and that you get a date for Friday night.
• Editor's comment Well, here it is 2030 Friday night local time, and Editor is working on the update. No need to guess if the Editor got a date. The sad truth - the Editor is compelled to explain - is that for 43 years he was married, to someone or the other. He has no idea how to get a date. And at his age it does not help when the Editor says to a potential datee, so as to speak, "Well, if I use the money I keep in the car for parking meters we might just be able to afford a plain hamburger at McDonald's - without the fires and soda". Adult women are not terribly attracted to people who offer very cheap dates at McDonald's. And you really cannot let the date pay. It was not done in Editor's day, and there is no way he is going to change. In all his life, he has gone out with only one woman who insisted she pay and Editor did not mind. This is when he was a fiery intellectual in India and a married lady old enough to be his daughter decided he was wildly interesting. When she was about to pay the dinner bill, Editor stopped her. She said: "Don't be silly. My husband is the biggest tax evader this side of town. I have more money than I know what to do with." Editor said: "Oh, I don't mind you spending your husband's money on me." There were many dinners till Mrs. R. IV inconveniently returned early to town and put an end to that. Wives have no sense of humor. Its very easy to get dates when you're married. When you're not, your date value drops faster than Greek debt. Its no use lying: women can tell at 20 paces if a man is married or not. (If Mrs. R IV is reading this, she will be ROTFL - "Wildly interesting? Him? I was married to him for over 30 years. A bigger bore there never was. He'd insist on going to bed at nine." Well, they say no man is a hero to his wife, and they say right. Uh oh: its 2050 - gotta rush, time for bed.

0230 GMT November 11, 2011

• Why UK does not want a 2-tier Europe We'd confessed bafflement at UK's opposition to a 2-tier EU, which France and Germany are plotting. UK telegraph has an explanation which leaves us just as confused.  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8882643/France-plots-eurozone-breakaway-group.html
• A 2-tier EU will reduce UK's influence. Wish we could figure out how.
• One thing we could figure out was that while Germany and France are plotting a 2-tier EU, they are also blackmailing UK. If UK does not accept the changes France/Germany want to the Lisbon Treaty, the French/Germans are threatening a split. Paris/Bonn want to cut London out of the proposed changes, which will be conducted on a take-it-or-leave-it basis. Very complicated. American politics are so much simpler.
• Italy As nearly as we can tell from Fast and Furious reading of the press, Italy has $400-billion of debt due in 2012. It is paying 3% more than it was earlier. That equates to an extra burden of $12-billion on the Italian exchequer. Italy's 2012 GDP is expected at about $2.3-trillion and its government spending is 49% of GDP, or about $1.1-trillion. We calculate that extra $12-billion is 1% of Government spending.
• Plus, Italy runs a primary budget surplus, which means that other than its debt interest, it runs a surplus. So actually Italy is in very good shape compared to many other countries, and according to us, the danger of default is low.
• So clearly Editor is brilliant, and congratulates himself on his astute analysis. which leaves the question why everyone is freaking out about an Italian default. another mystery.
• Amplification on US government spending The other day we'd mentioned US government expenditure (all levels) is about 40% of GDP. We wanted to clarify that doesn't mean Americans pay 40% of their income in taxes. The US runs a huge deficit, in FY2011 it was 8.7% or $1.3-trillion. That indicates the US takes about 31-32% of GDP in taxes, which compared to the other developed countries is quite low.
• Talking about taxes Editor got his annual notification from the bank that he was in escrow deficit and will have to up his monthly payment. November 1, 2004 is when Mrs. R. IV officially left the house. In the seven years since, assessed value of the house has gone up 10%. Property taxes/insurance have gone up by 50%. Editor is now paying $6000/year in property taxes/insurance for a house with 1000-square-feet and land of 7000-square-feet. It's like Dorothy said: "I - I don't think we're in Kansas anymore, Toto".
• Editor is sure Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley, Montgomery County Executive Isaiah Leggett, and whoever is mayor of the City of Takoma Park - we had an election the other day, so Editor doesn't know who's the mayor; in fact, he's never known who is the mayor - have a perfectly rational explanation for all this. But Editor's income hasn't gone up by 50%. One buys a home intending to live in the rest of one's life, one settles down in a community. and then one has to one day sell and move to some place in the far boonies away from friends where there are few jobs, just because one can't pay the ever escalating property taxes? Oh, Editor gets it: THIS is the American dream.
• Editor knows country is in trouble. He has no issue with paying more federal tax. Its the state and property taxes that are killing him, not the IRS. And by the way, since Editor is a public servant (only employed part-time at this moment, it is true, but a public servant nonetheless) he can attest the salaries of county and state workers haven't gone up anywhere near 50% either. Nor have services increased. It's a big mystery.
• Secretary of Defense says Israeli attack on Iran could have unintended consequences Editor reels in worshipful admiration of our SecDef's Great Mind! What a genius! We need something more advanced than the Mensa society to accommodate people like our SecDef! America is truly supreme with people like him at the helm! Take that you dirty Chinese and take that you dirty Indians, do you think you can EVER overtake the US? Have you a single leader as skilled in stating the obvious as our SecDef? Die, scumbags, you don't have a chance! America Rules!
• SecDef says an attack will set Iran nuclear program back only a few years Quelle genius! (Repeat the above praise three times.)
• Yes, Obviousman, you are right. That's why a few years down the road you simply attack it again. Duh.
• By the way, not to be like Obviousman, but you really do not need to attack 20, 50, or 200 or however many installations people say you need to attack to cripple Iran's N-program. You need to hit facilities producing fissile material, combined with tightening sanctions still further so that Iran finds it that much harder to rebuild.
• And yes, if you hit fissile material production, there's a danger you'll release radiation into the atmosphere. So what, now we have to save a rogue state from environmental pollution? A single warhead on Tel Aviv, Berlin, or New York is going to cause a great deal more radiation.
• Also, the calculations Israel will have to cross Turkish, Syrian, Iraqi, or Saudi airspace enroute to Iranian targets is also not correct. There's something called air-to-air to refueling. Though its hard to see what the Syrians can do if the Israelis decide to cross.
• Agreed Israel will need more than one raid. This is not an Osirak situation. So what? What exactly is the junk heap called the Iranian Air Force going to do? If aircraft are to risky, there's cruise missiles. And if some aircraft get shot down, so what? Whose Mama promised anyone that military action is risk-free and casualty-free? The aircraft  casualties in the US raid on Ploesti were 33%. The bulk of the damage was made good in weeks, and output climbed higher than before. So Ploesti shouldn't have been attacked? Nonsense. US/UK lost 40,000 combat aircraft during the strategic bombing of Germany. So they should not have carried the war to Germany?
• When there's a mortal threat to your country, you do what you have to do. People need to stop spewing bilgewater on the subject of the difficulties of an Israeli strike on Iran.

0230 GMT November 10, 2011

• The Telegraph's Matt cartoon for November 9, 2011, has a demonstrator saying: "I plan to get my student debt up to a level that forces the IMF to bail me out." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
• Is there light at the end of Euro Tunnel? France, Germany discuss a "core" Eurozone. In brief, the new Eurozone would kick out those who don't want to be in the zone, or cannot afford it. Simultaneously, a European confederation would be created with all of the current 27 members, with plans to add eight more in the next ten years. presumably the non-core countries will keep their own currencies, but enjoy all the benfits of free trade, open labor markets and so on. Apparently France and Germany have been talking about this for months, and a conference is being held on December 9.
• Much to our surprise, the British of all people are objecting. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/09/us-eurozone-future-sarkozy-idUSTRE7A85VV20111109 So are the Austrians and the Dutch, though they will likely be part of the core Euro zone. While some Europeans may not want to weaken the idea of Europe, we simply do not understand why the British, who have opposed joining the Euro or even confederating with Europe, are having a problem. Perhaps our readers can explain? does this have to do with fears of an even more powerful Germany? Is this a playout of British foreign policy for two centuries which requires no one power to be dominant in Europe? If so, let the Brits join the core Euro zone. Why force countries who cannot stay in to remain? Are British bankers they will lose money if the Euro zone goes on a diet? Sorry, fellers, that money is gone, gone, gone. Better to accept it than drive the Greeks, Italians, Spanish, Portuguese, completely bananas and overthrow the existing financial order.
• Meanwhile, regardless of fears that the core Euro zone will mean the end of Europe as we know it, there are two considerations. One, if the current Euro zone cannot work, which it cannot, it makes no difference what Euro-federalists want. As we said yesterday, economics is economics. Two, drop-out or expellees can rejoin the core Euro zone they are ready. It was totally absurd to equate, say, Germany and Greece and assume both could amicably exist in a common Euro zone. Those who would continue throwing money at past mistakes have no answer for who is going to do the money throwing. Right now Sakrozy and Merkel are channeling their inner Bob Dylans and singing "It Aint Me, Babe."
• Meantime, of course, the markets keep going up and down, down and up, as if they are puppets controlled by some all-powerful puppet master. (Must be the Venetian Bankers. Only kidding.) (Why do we have to add "only kidding"? Does anyone take the Venetian Bankers theory seriously?)
• Some argue Italy has not reached end of the road yet Normally, when sovereign bonds cross 7.3% as Italian bonds have done, there's no turning back. Its on to 8% and bail out time, baby, as Austin Powers might say. But some argue that Italy is not yet done in, it can sustain higher yields because though its debt is 120% of GDP, its deficit is relatively small. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/10/business/global/italy-pushed-closer-to-financial-brink.html
• Italy 2- and 10-year bonds are both above 7%, and it is the 3rd largest bond market in the world. The Economist says investors are ditching Irish, Spanish, Belgian, and French sovereign debt as well. http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/11/euro-crisis-5
• Is India preparing for the fourth-generation of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty to take over? Speculation is that Mrs. Sonia Gandhi, the head of the Congress Party, is preparing to hand over power to her son, Rahul, who is 41 years old. She has not been well, and was about to give her first public speech since her return from New York last summer. But she is again sick, with what the Indians call "viral fever". This is the good old dengue fever. Editor having gotten it twice can attest it is no joke. He got it in his thirties and was sick for three weeks. Every day he thought Upstairs had decided to cash in his chips. The illness is, of course, survivable; relatively few people die of it. But if Mrs. Gandhi has not fully recovered from the illness that took her to New York's Sloan Kettering hospital earlier this year, or there is a recurrence, or if she is just plain exhausted from being in Indian politics for thirty years, she may want to hand over power to Rahul.
• Which will cause a great disaster. There is no doubt this youngster has a popular following among the villagers and the poor, mainly because of his habit of spending days and nights in India's villages, living as do the people, so as to speak. But running India at age 41? Not a chance.
• Sometimes people are hard to understand Accuser Number 4 (AN4) of Herman Cain, of 999 and Pizza Fame who would be Prez of America, denied ever meeting AN4, let alone doing the - er - ungentlemanly things she accuses him of. Okay. So now a radio producer corroborates her story that she met him October 1, 2011. Okay, so Herman lied or he has amnesia or whatever. That isn't the issue. The radio producer says that initially Herman was all smiles, but then turned "stone-faced". Okay, that also corroborates what AN4 has said. No confusion here.
• But here comes our confusion: AN4 was seen by the radio producer, a woman, to put her arms around Herman. They sort of embraced, says the producer. http://www.cnn.com/2011/11/09/politics/cain-bialek/index.html
• Why on earth would AN4 put her arms around Herman, given what she says she went through? This is what we don't understand.

0230 GMT November 9, 2011

• Europe and self-deception In one's personal affairs, one can deceive oneself forever. But economics is a ruthless taskmaster (or taskmistresses, if one wants to be politically correct). You can babble all you want, but the market will have its way according to its own pitiless logic.
• Please notice that Greece has already defaulted, though the Euros are running around screaming at the tops of their voices it 'aint so. But it so, because a 50% reduction is a default. Not as bad as a 100% default, but default nonetheless. But do we hear the D word used anywhere? We don't. Further, it has been obvious for some weeks that Greece has no choice but to quit the Euro because it cannot pay back even the 50% reduced debts it owes.
• Now on to Italy. Italy debt is $2.5-trillion, a tad more than Greece's about $350-billion, though given Greece's propensity for magical bookkeeping, who knows if it is $350-billion or a lot more.
• Be that as it may. Yesterday the Austrians said that Italy is too big to bail, and it is going to have to save itself. Bringing down a $2.5-trillion debt to something reasonable will require incredible sacrifices by the Italians. Is Europe going to accept Italy cannot be bailed out? After all, all the bailout money has to come from somewhere, and that ultimately means Germany, and the Germans are already mad as heck. Think how mad they're going to get when they have to produce - say - $4-trillion to bail out Italy, Spain, and Portugal
• So we can expect further self-deception.
• Are we being typical ignorant Americans who don't understand the sophistication, the intellectual power, the unmatched understanding of economics that the Euros claim to have? Is this post just another cheap Euro-Bash?
• No, because we've said enough times that America too is in denial. Its debt is manageable right now because interest rates are so low. But first, God did not tell Moses that American interest rates are going to remain absurdly low for as long as America needs to get its affairs in order. And second, America's idea of debt reduction is to add "only" $8-trillion or more in debt over the next ten years. That's if things according to plan. if they don't, to put it as politely as possible, we're up poo-doo creek without a paddle and indeed, without even a boat. Gross American debt is already almost 100% of GDP: ten trillion smackeroos public debt, and five trillion clams in intergovernmental debt. US is paying about 2.5% on its debt, about $400-billion a year. (All these figures are rounded off/approximate). So say interest rates went up to 3.75%, we'd be paying $600-billion. That's on the current debt, not the debt we're about to assume in the next ten years. At that higher rate, we could be paying close to a trillion on the national debt.
• And if Italy is too big to bail, what about America, with its seven-times larger economy?
• So we're not Euro-Bashing. We're just saying short of a miracle, Europe is heading for the latrines if it doesn't tighten its belt so tight that the stars on the 1 Euro coin have to switch out their lights. We read many people in Greece have lost a third, a half, even two-thirds of their income - and the stringency has only begun. Barring that miracle, and the last certified one happened 2011 years ago, the Greeks may one day be talking of the halcyon days of 2011 prosperity.
• Of course, there are those who think the Euro is doomed when Greece defaults further. http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100013174/once-greece-goes-the-whole-euro-project-will-unravel/
• The Greek political crisis explained: Reader Flymike's friend sent him this Here is the end of day post I promised. I wrote the following note about the referendum while Papandreou was still in France. It is written from a Poli-Sci point of view and not a business one. As you know, the referendum never came to be. There are 3 reasons for this:
• 1) Papandreou did not foresee the huge backlash from other European leaders.
• 2) The Greek Parliament is made up of 300 members. Papandreou only had 152 members on his side. Upon returning from France there were threats he would lose more and without a majority he would have to give up his position as Prime Minister.
• 3) Even if his own had stood with him, the country is bankrupt. There is not enough money in the coffers to continue to pay wages. Without immediate funds from the EU, the country could not survive. The country did not have enough money to last until the December 4th referendum.
• Personally I wish the referendum would have taken place. It would have shut a lot of mouths and allowed the country to move forward. Under the stern & watchful eye of the EU, Greece would have to curb spending. With a referendum, the Greeks would have had to state a definite yes or no to staying in the EU and with the Euro. I do not see how they could have said no, but either way, Greece’s part in “rocking the world markets” would have ceased. As it stands, Greece will still remain with the Euro, but with a divided voice. Thus the country will remain in turmoil and still disrupt world markets. Add the Italian Opera to the Greek Tragedy and the mess continues.
• Reader Luxembourg forwarded this letter from a transportation person which explains why America cant build anything any more. "I’m a civil engineer with a little over ten years in transportation design, and I’ve witnessed first hand the chaos the industry has fallen into. I worked with a private consultant for state and local transportation agencies, and the whole shovel-ready mess wrecked our long term plans by using up most of the available funding in short-term projects. The process now takes four to six years for even a small project to go through, so when everyone moved projects up to qualify for funding through ARRA, it left a gap where no new projects are expected for a few years. Not to mention, most of the ARRA projects required very little or no engineering (repaving roads or adding sidewalks, for example). I was among the last group of engineers and surveyors laid off from my company in June and have only found one temporary job since then, with almost all the companies in my area (Nashville) treading water or downsizing since then. (In my job search, I’ve been told more than once that people are not planning on adding staff until after next year’s election.) I’m now wondering if I should change disciplines in order to hedge my bets. Environmental engineering looks promising. If you’ve been regulated out of a job, I guess apply for a job with the regulators."
• If you doubt what the writer is saying, ask yourself this Suppose in 1941 the Japanese had attacked not Pearl Harbor, but the equivalent of the World Trade Center. (That would be what - the Empire State Building and the Chrysler Building?) Does anyone think that the US would have taken 10-years to start rebuilding?
• That was Bin Laden's real assault on America. Not that his people knocked down two unprotected buildings in a time of peace, but he exposed how truly effete and degenerate we are that we needed ten years to start rebuilding.
• And by the way, we're told that it took something a bit over one year to build the Empire State Building back in 1931. Also by the way, the twin towers were only ten stories taller.
• America The Absurd So a company decided to build 190-MW of wind power in Minnesota, the equivalent of a fifth the size of today's coal plants. So for that they need a transmission line to tie into the grid. So there's a farmer who doesn't want the pylons and cables crossing his land. His excuse? The Indians built teepees where his land is. You can still make out the teepee rings. Its a historical site. If this gentleman wants to preserve Indian history, why doesn't he give his land back to the Indians from whom his forefathers took it?
• Washington Post, Page A10, November 8, 2011.

0230 GMT November 8, 2011

Today's post has nothing to do with the GWOT or strategic affairs

• The anti-Bank of America campaigner: Alice in Wonderland We learn from the Washington Post that the person who led the campaign against Bank of America's $5/month fee for using your debt card is a local resident. She works part-time, $400/month, because that's all she can get by way of employment. Before people write in to say $400/week would be good wages in many parts of the country, please to note Washington area is not most of the country. It is expensive, probably third most major metro area in the US.
• Okay, so she led a consumer revolt and good for her. Of course, she was helped by the near universal hatred of the big banks at this point in American history. People like B of A have been systematically destroying competition by buying up one bank after another and they are not really responsive to the market.
• One example is the banks' habit of paying out money from your account when you use your debit card, even if you don't have the money in your account, then charging you $35 for it, while saying piously "our customers prefer their transaction goes through". Sure, till you get hit with eight consecutive  charges, for debit card purchases of less than $200, as once happened to Editor. He had forgotten to deposit his pay check and ended up paying $160 dollars (the overdraft fee was $20 then). Since the debit card kept getting accepted, he thought he was okay. Till he saw his next statement. His preference would have been for the first transaction not to go through at all, at which point he would have been embarrassed, but could have checked his account and discovered he hadn't deposited his paycheck.
• Another fun thing the banks do is that - say - you make four charges in a day, $10, $15, $25, and $50, and you have  $50 in your account. Instead of levying the overdraft fee on the fourth and last purchase, they put the $50 toward your fourth purchase, and then charge you overdraft fees for the three purchases you made earlier in the day. Really nice guys.
• But that's not our point. So the young lady is now looking for a job, and apparently she will have to start paying $200/month toward her student loans. She rhetorically asked why does she have to pay interest? Why does she have to repay the loan? (WashPost, Metro section, page B1, November 7, 2011)
• will and Ariel Durrant wrote A History of Civilization (a really good one) and titled one volume "The Age of Enlightenment". If they were still around, they could write a new book on post-1970 America, and title it "The Age of Entitlement."
• What on earth gives this young person the idea that she shouldn't have to pay interest on her student loans or even pay them back at all? Editor is Student-Loaned up-the-wazoo, and he knows a thing or two about the loans. Yes, its a racket. Yes, the college industry (its an industry now) keeps raising the cost of education so you have to take out loans if you want a degree and without a double masters these days you don't get the job of unpaid research intern in Washington. Editor can give you any number of reasons why the Student Loan thing is a a colossal rip-off.
• But that said, the government has made repayment as painless as humanly possibly. You don't have to pay anything for three years if you are not making enough. After that you pay 15% (to go down to 10%) of your income above 150% of poverty level if you chose an income contingent plan. Then, if you work in public service for 10-years, making your 120 payments on time, the government pays the rest of the your loan, no matter how high the balance. And if you don't get into public service, after 25 years (soon to be 20) the balance is written off anyway.
• Just suppose for a minute that the mortgage market worked like the student loan market. Do you think a normal person would say "I don't have a decent job, I shouldn't have to pay interest or even my loan back"? We don't think so. We think a normal person would say "I'm getting heck of a deal, Brownie".
• And so it should be on student loans. But apparently not in the Age of Entitlement.
• Its not just bankers and hedge fund operators who need an "attitude adjustment." We, the Little People, need one too. America is a land that gives you equal opportunities:  you too can run a  financial institution and rip off the taxpayer for tens of billions and not go to jail. America is not a land that guarantees you great outcomes regardless of the bad choices you make. Yes, there is a lot of outright fraud perpetrated in American financial affairs. But student loans is not such an area.
• The failure of the market The market is the foundation of capitalism. Distort the market, and you cannot have real capitalism. Stephen Pearlstein, writing in Washington Post's Sunday Business Section November 6, 2011, says that speculation is creating a new bubble, this time in commodities. He says commodity prices have nothing to do with supply and demand, rather, people looking for ever higher returns on their money are gambling with commodity futures now that other instruments are out of the picture. (That didn't stop Corzine of MF Global from reprising 2008 by speculating on Greek and Italian bonds.)
• Re. oil, Pearlstein quotes the head of Chevron to say oil is $30/barrel higher than it should be strictly on supply-and-demand. Since Chevron gains the higher the price, the company has little to gain from putting out false or faulty studies which say the actual price should be much lower.
• All the "free" market people might like to ponder the above point when they fill up their gas tank, paying $3.60/gallon instead of $2.40/gallon (of course, we are simplifying here, there is not a one-to-one correlation between crude prices and pump prices).
• We've said this again and again: what the people who run America want is NOT capitalism. They want state capitalism, where the power of the state is used for their benefit, to tilt the playing field in their favor and against ordinary folks like you and me.
• There comes a point a few people control so much money that they decide what the price should be, not the market. That is not capitalism.
• From Reader DS on Fuzzy Wuzzy Economic Math Check out this site.
  http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm As you can see they do not count people that quit searching or who have been unemployed for a set period of time or are underemployed/part time. The actual unemployment rate continues to go up.http

://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

 Not sure if the above statistics are correct but these are the numbers that are thrown about by financial planners, MBA's and government workers.

• That was not very smart of us as we knew about the official unemployment rate (U3) and the Bureau of Labor statistics rate (U6). So if you're going to just keep cutting off a while bunch of unemployed every month from U3, then of course you can bring down the unemployment rate even if you create only 80,000 jobs against the 150,000 needed to meet just the population growth. Which then leaves us wondering what is the worth of government statistics. There's a big difference saying "one of ten Americans is unemployed" and "one of six is in effect unemployed". The second figure might cause a little more concern among the electorate. The second reference reader DR gives argues that even the U6 rate is not accurate and the really really unemployment rate is even higher.

0230 GMT November 7, 2011

• Like Celine Dion's heart, Greece goes on and on Let us first confess that aside from the Greek armed forces, Editor knows very little about Greece except the usual general stuff that everyone knows. The Greeks eat a lot, drink a lot, sing lustily, and do a lot of stomp dancing, and they never do IT on a Sunday. (Only kidding.) So Editor excuses himself from not realizing that in Greece nothing is ever actually agreed on.
• We saw that with the bailout, where the figures changed every day for the worse. Then we saw that on the terms of the bailout. Now we're seeing it in the political situation which is too complicated to explain. A saying in life is that one should live every day as if its the last day of one's life, and we somehow suspect that unraveling Greek politics is not something people want to do on the last day of their life, any more than they want to figure out what Kim Kardashian is up to. Actually, the Kardashians are more interesting than Greek politics, because they are American Trash. Greek politics are not trashy, they're just complicated, like the Gordian Knot, and right now there's no Alexander around.
• So: best to assume that nothing is settled re. the Greek bailout; it could still blow up in Europe's face big time, with the resultant negative consequences for the US.
• Fuzzy Wuzzy Economic Math? Readers may recall that Fuzzy Wuzzy was a bear, he had no hair, and so he wasn't fuzzy wuzzy. That makes as much sense as US employment figures. We are being told than in October 80,000 jobs were created, and the unemployment figure dropped from 9.1% to 9%.
• But look: US adds 3-million people a year through natural growth and legal immigration, and that means approximately 2-million people net a year are entering the labor force. For simplicity, make that 150,000/month. So shouldn't the unemployment figures have gone UP and not DOWN?
• What are we not getting here, can someone explain?
• Pakistani N-warheads zapping around the highways and byways? Who comes up with this stuff? Atlantic Magazine has a a video interview http://t.co/GfdrvoZV where a gentleman says that to keep the US from seizing its N-warheads the Pakistanis are moving them around on the road. To avoid drawing attention, they are using ordinary trucks without protection. Big danger, says this person, because if AQ could get a hold of a schedule, they could seize a truck.
• This information caused us considerable confusion. Not because we wonder how the Pakistanis will secure their warheads that just go rolling around, because the Pakistanis are doing no such idiot thing. We're confused because we wonder who puts out this stuff and then expects people to believe it.
• May we also ask where the figure of 100 warheads so often used comes from? The real figure is a fraction that. Now, we agree that no one wants even handful of warheads doing their Keep On Truckin' number, so we are not relating this to the story of the peregrinating warheads. We're merely saying this figure has been around for at least 25 years. where is it coming from? Please don't quite some think tank on this, because they don't know either.
• Another thing: where do people get the idea that if India attacks Pakistan, Pakistan will use tactical nuclear warheads to stop Indian spearheads? Don't people understand in the field you normally need one warhead per mechanized or tank company - if you hit it squarely. That's why you need lots and lots of warheads to deter a ground thrust.  And the process of reconnaissance and targeting when you're using N-weapons is very complicated, especially when you're firing them on your own territory! You don't want to make a mistake and then say: "Oopsies! There goes Sialkot! Our bad!" and by the way, Pakistan says it has tactical warheads. We say it makes sense for Pakistan to SAY that, but operating tactical weapons are something else altogether.
• These things are basically unusable unless you want to do a mutual suicide. There's all this nonsense about you cant have a conventional war under a nuclear overhang. Well, India and Pakistan just did, in 1999.
• Let Editor be clear: he regards Pakistan as India's enemy. But that doesn't mean you attribute to your enemy every little bit of silliness you can come up, like the wandering warheads. That's not intelligent. And for Americans to be saying stupid stuff about Pakistan doesn't make the Pakistanis stupid. It makes the Americans look stupid.

0230 GMT November 6, 2011

1400 GMT Correction: Ortega of Nicaragua was cleared for 3rd term by Supreme Electoral Council, which should be independent but which is controlled by ruling party. Nonetheless, this permission is not constitutionally valid and the Constitution forbids a third term He may get more than 50% of today's vote, obviating the need for a run-off.

• Colombia kills head of FARC, now lets wait for Amnesty International's demand for an inquiry After receiving information from a former rebel, Colombian aircraft bombed the jungle hideout of the FARC leader. Colombian troops from helicopters followed, killing the rebel chief and others in the camp. Six laptops and 39 memory sticks were recovered. Colombians danced in the streets. We await Amnesty International's allegation this could be a war crime - after all, the man was not arrested and given a trial - and its demand for an inquiry.
• No one is expecting the leader's death to mean the end of FARC, though it has been seriously weakened by previous blows. But the narco rebels may be more amenable to negotiations.
• http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/05/us-colombia-rebels-idUSTRE7A40CV20111105
• Meanwhile, in Nicaragua we have another farce so typical of long-suffering Latin America Daniel Ortega, the former Sandinista leader who was smacked silly by Ronald Reagan, but who after losing the civil war then decided to go legit and won two terms as President, is now running for a third consecutive term.
• The problem is, the constitution bars him from running. That has not stopped Mr. Ortega from campaigning. He might even win. How this plays out, we have to wait and see.
• Its true even Uribe, the former Colombian leader, considered a third term by amending the constitution. But he ended up stepping down.
• Please to remember Latin America threw off Spain's colonial yoke 200 years ago. Its disgraceful that we nonetheless have lovely people like Castro, Chavez, and Ortega around.
• Reader Patrick Skuza is not impressed with US F-35 offer to India So, the US is going to offer India the F35 for sale. I wonder if the US is crazy, or crazy like a fox. Unless I missed something, I believe India has not agreed to the US demand for a End User License Agreement on military equipment. This mythical dragon slayer, F 35, which is so complex and expensive that it takes all of the countries of St. George to put together has yet to enter service with anybody.
• It strikes me that India chose the Rafel in large part because of the simplicity of dealing with one country rather than float on the sea of international and business politics and can gain transfer to technology. India has worked hard on a indigenous data link system for her airborne platforms that would be hamstrung by US EULA requirements. Not to mention BFF Pakistan (O' beloved Land of the Pures) would be sad and might quit whispering sweet nothings in the US's ear. (never mind that Pakistan has the indigenous built galactic death star J 17).
• India, you are on the path to become the light of the world, Please put down and step away from the "US Defense" crack pipe. I know it's disappointing, but buy some howitzers. It will make you feel better.
• The $31.50/weekly Food Stamps budget A rabbi in New York decided to try and eat spending only $31.50/week, which is what the Food Stamps allocation for a single person is. New York prices being what they are, no need to guess he had a very hard time (Washington Post, November 5, 2011). He'd have done somewhat better in Washington, which is also very expensive but less so than New York City, and he likely would have managed in East Texas or rural Mississippi.
• The point the rabbi wanted to make is, where is our compassion? In this great and rich country, can we not even give the unfortunate enough to eat?
• Fair enough, and he made his point. But there is another point to be made. Why are people in the position that they have to be given Food Stamps? Before Food stamps, before the State became our family, people had real families, and they depended on their family. Ditto child care, housing, unemployment and so on.
• Doubtless there are many cases where people are destitute and don't have a family - we don't mean a family who won't help, but no family at all. And surely we should help such people. But by substituting the State for our family, we have freed children who don't want to look after their parents, and parents who don't want to look after their children, from responsibility. The State, to act as family, has to take money from one part of the people to look after another part of the people.
• What needs to be answered is: is this morally right? We are not talking money. These days Editor has added another statistic to Concise World Armies, percentage GDP spent by the government in each country. Editor is struck by the realization that almost without exception, the state in developed countries spends more than the US's 44% (IMF figures, from its World Economic Report, September 2011). So obviously the US can afford to spend more. That isn't our point. The question is - we repeat - is it morally right to ask one part of the people to mandatorily pay for others who do have family but for one reason or another choose not to ask their family for help, or their family refuses to give it?
• Just asking.

0230 GMT November 5, 2011

• Syria moves closer to a real civil war An army of 15,000 (claimed. UK telegraphs says may be as low as 5,000) has announced it will fight the Syrian government. The army has Turkey's backing. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/8868027/15000-strong-army-gathers-to-take-on-Syria.html
• We have problems with Turkey's savage repression of the Kurds (and of course the Kurds have not helped their cause by their incessant use of violence and terror) but we have to say we admire Turkey's courage in standing up to the Tyrant Assad at a time the west is trying to find holes to hide in the moment anyone suggests robust action.
• Goodbye Papandreou Hello,  Goodbye Berlo The Greek PM is to step down and his finance minister will try and form a new coalition. hopefully avoiding new election. These could add to the uncertainty. Notice once again the horrible fear of democracy in EU affairs. Papandreou's only crime, as we see it, was to honestly try and resolve the debt crisis without sugarcoating the sacrifices Greeks will have to make.
• Right after we wrote that we learned that the Greek PM not only survived the vote he was sure to lose, but he is putting together a government of national unity. Talk about ups and downs.
• Our Papandreou headline is a play on Michael Coney's famous sci-fi book "Hello Summer, Goodbye", one of the saddest stories of doomed young love we have ever read.
• Berlo says he will not quit because he has a majority. But officially his majority is down to one, and now seven loyalists have called for him to quit. Meanwhile Italian bonds rose to 6.43%, said by Reuters to be a lifetime high.
• No need to feel sorry for Berlo: he still has a few billion, and lots of bunga-bunga company. Though if he is out of office that could affect his immunity and a lot of people in Italy (not least the Church) want his hide nailed to a public wall because, they feel, he has brought discredit on Italy by his lack of morals. The women who found solace and money in involving themselves with Berlo are, of course, entirely blameless. The balance of power was completely one-sided, because not only was PM of Italy, he was also a billionaire, and in his seventies a much older man. These women should now sue him because they were coerced into having sex with him and into taking money from him. Bad boy, Berlo.
• (We can't believe we managed to make that last statement with a straight face.)
• Talking about Italy, Ireland has said it with close its mission to the Holy See because it cannot afford two embassies in Italy and it gets no economic return. The Vatican is quite angry, because it doesn't see what economic return has to do with the situation.
• The Irish are devout Catholics, but it cannot be denied that the Vatican has repeatedly failed them in the matter of abuse by priests and nuns. Personally we agree with diplomatic sources who say that background has played into the decision to close the embassy. We think a lot of Irish have decided they can be good Catholics without necessarily bowing and scraping to the Vatican.
• That the decision by Dublin is a huge blow to the Vatican's prestige is obvious. The head of the church in Ireland has come out against the decision. The Minister for Foreign Affairs notes that Ireland is also closing its missions in Teheran and Dili (Timor Leste).
• Gadaffi son's German model UK Telegraph has soothed editor's anger over UK Daily Mail called Gadaffi son's model girlfriend "American" when she is half-Italian and works in Germany. Telegraph calls her German model in a story. Again, a word to Daily Mail: we accept America is infamous for its crime, violence, and depravity - for one thing we have 310-million people, five times as many in UK, so you're going to get a lot of bad stuff happening in America compared to UK. But believe it or not, America is not the fount of every depravity in the world. There's enough of that in UK to keep anyone happy.

0230 GMT November 4, 2011

• US throws major spanner in India's fighter competition After India refused to consider either the F-16 or F-18, the US spent a lot of time getting upset and wondering loudly if it really had a strategic partnership with India worth pursuing. Now US has come back to offer the F-35 which effectively knocks the two Indian short-list candidates, Rafale and Typhoon, out consideration: F-35 is much more advanced than the French and European fighters.
• India approves third set of two mountain divisions in its buildup against China. The first set of two was raised last year; approval for two more had been recently given, and now a third set of two has been cleared. Though the second and third pairs are under the 2012-2017 defense plan, which will start next year, its likely the new divisions will be raised well before 2017.
• With this approval, Indian Army has obtained its minimum requirement against China. It actually wants a total of eleven new divisions, doubling the size of the force available against China.
• The next step is up to China. We have said before that for absolutely no rational reason China has brought this Indian buildup on itself by pushing and pushing India in the north when India was perfectly content to mind its own business. China has to learn it may be the center of the Earth, if it mistreats neighbors there will be a reaction. If China now reacts by further provoking India, then those five extra divisions will happen. To begin with 15 large divisions facing Tibet is not exactly a joke, but twenty will be even more devoid of comedy.
• Moreover, India deliberately misleads the world by talking of "mountain divisions", implying that its plains divisions cannot be used in the mountains. They very much can.
• In addition to the six divisions raised or cleared, India has also cleared two mountain infantry and two armored brigade groups for the China border.
• Now before our Indian friends go high-fiving, there's a couple of things for India to remember. Its weapons procurement program is a complete and utter mess. And while it has woken up to the need to improve its transport infrastructure in the north, it is twenty years behind China in this game. So that's nice there are to be all these extra troops in the north. That doesn't mean India can go burping and belching along on its very long delayed helicopter and medium artillery modernization/expansion programs, scratching under its armpits and carefully examining its navel for lint.
• As an example of India's approach, after 50 years it decided to improve the roads in the XXXIII Corps sector (Sikkim). The original route was shot down by Ministry of Environment. Then the army gave two alternate routes. Also shot down by Ministry of Environment. Now, India is a terribly environmentally degraded country, just as is China. The latter is in worse shape because its economic expansion has been going on for a decade longer than India's and Chinese industry has grown manifold since 1980. The environment does matter. But on the other side of the border you have a competitor who does not give half-a-hoot about the environment. In any case Tibet is like a Chinese colony. So the Indian leadership either tells Ministry of Environment that sorry about that, these roads have to be built, or it calls in environmental experts and triples the outlays to get the roads build causing minimum damage, or it lays out $30-50 billion to buy helicopters and heavy transport aircraft. This last will help, but of course you're still going to need roads.
• Herman Cain and sexual harassment We think Mr. Cain is a blithering idiot, but (a) you can hardly hold that against the man considering the standard of American politicians today, and (b) Orbat.com has to be fair to him.
• Mr. Cain is 65 years old. He was brought up in an era where what is now considered the vilest sexual harassment was considered harmless. You can definitely hold an old person to the standards of today - but that can apply only to his behavior of today. He has to be shown latitude for past sins.
• Americans have lost all perspective on this harassment issue.  The standard of yesteryear was that the men pursed women, and aggressively. We don't doubt for a minute the women of the past would have muchly preferred to be pursued by gentlemen and not by uncouth boors. And for every man who acted boorish, there were ten even back then who knew there was lots of stuff you didn't do when it came to women. Bush Junior is the same age as Mr. Cain, and no one accused him sexually harassing women. You just know had he acted inappropriately, Mama Bush would have put him over her knee and let him have it. So we are not defending Mr. Cain's behavior. We're saying it has to be put in context of the times.
• Doubtless our younger readers and the two women who read this blog are deeply moved by our plea on behalf of forgiving Mr. Cain past transgressions. And doubtless they are thinking: Editor is really dumping a big load of bull poop on us. So Editor has to go one step further and say that Mr. Cain still owes everyone explanations and apologies.
• The simplest is to say: "I understand that my behavior then is unacceptable now, and likely was even unacceptable then else why would settlements be paid out to women. I was brought up in a different era. I accept that is no excuse. I ask forgiveness for my sins and I won't do these things again."
• Saying "no it didn't happen" and "I have no recollection of who these women are" will not work. Mr. Cain is not Mr. Ronald Reagan. The latter could gently smile and say "you know, I honestly don't remember" and get people to believe him. But then  he wasn't trying to pretend he was the smartest man in America, just the friendliest.
• Mr. Cain, apologize. Grovel. Seek "treatment". Consult your pastor. Hug a goldfish. Back in the day all the Romans wanted was for the lions to rip their victims to pieces. A few minutes of terror and it was over, because you were dead. The New Romans, aka the American public and media, want hours, days, months, and years of entertainment. You haveta give it to them. sorry about that, but then no one held a gun to your head and forced you to run for GOP nominee.

0230 November 3, 2011

• Greece A British commentator says the reason the Greek PM called for a referendum is that a left party in parliament keeps insisting Greece stay in the Eurozone, but every time action has to be taken to meet the conditions for staying in the Eurozone, the party votes no. So the PM got very fed up and said lets leave it to the people.
• The people are not happy, because the best their government can promise is a decade of hardship, at the end of which they will still owe 120% their GDP in debt. Many Greeks feel if they're going to suffer no matter what they do, they may as well default and get it over with because at the end of the tunnel there is hope. Not defaulting, even with a 50% write-down, is leaving them another tunnel at the end of the tunnel.
• A point that has eluded the Editor till recently - he's not a Eurozone expert, is that the European governments take major decisions without consulting their people. There's apparently a feeling among Euro bureaucrats that the people are ignorant fools, and cannot be trusted with making rational decisions on their future. Okay, so call him an ignorant American (or an ignorant guest of America), but there seems something immoral, if not out right illegal, in refusing to submit major decisions to the people. Just because voters elect politicians to govern them for five years or whatever, does not mean they have sheep-like handed over all authority over the five years. It seems to us that when major decisions that affect the next 10, 20, or even more years of peoples' lives are under discussion, these decisions have to be submitted to the voters.
• What does all this mean for America? No economists, we, and thank goodness because there is no more confused bunch of people on earth than economists, but two things are obvious. One, the Euros are sending butt-kissing delegations to Beijing, not to Washington. That long talked-about shift of power from America to China is already in evidence. Two, America's bad times are going to continue, also likely for another ten years. Both right and left think the solutions are obvious and the other side is being blithering idiots for not getting it. Actually, we may be in a very dangerous phase where neither side has the answers, and indeed, we may be in a really dangerous phase where governments have no power to make things better, even assuming they knew what to do. which they apparently do not.
• Rule Britannia - er, we meant Britannia does not rule the waves A sad day indeed when what was once the greatest navy in the world does not have a single warship left to defend its shores. The British surface fleet is down to 19 units, and if the British follow the US Navy system, six will be forward deployed, six returning from deployment or training for it, and six in dockyards or training. So the Royal Navy has designated one (1, as in singular) warship as the naval reaction force for defense of the realm. The other day the lone ship in the force headed off for a NATO exercise, and voila, no designated ship left. Meanwhile, plans are underway to cut the army to six brigades, and the number of aircraft to levels not seen before World War I.
• So you were thinking the US administers justice to all regardless of rank? Americans are very proud of their fond belief that no matter who you are, justice is done once you're found guilty.
• Think again, good people. Lindsey Lohan has never met any conditions of her repeated probations. Now the judge is finally fed up after four years of Ms. Lohan's antics and disregard of court orders. The judge has sentenced Ms. Lohan to - gasp - 30 days in jail. If Ms.Lohan had not been an in(famous) actor, the judge would not have been so lenient to someone who repeatedly disses the court.
• But - wait - there's more (quotes from the Counting Count of Sesame Street). Ms. Lohan was not carted off to the slammer with a pair of very used, very ugly bracelets around her wrists. Why? Because the judge gave her time to do a scheduled Playboy photoshoot where Ms. Lohan is supposed to appear - er - sans culotte.
• Is there any other country with a functioning judiciary where this would happen?
• And yes, there's even more. The media says Ms. Lohan will likely spend no more than a few moments behind bars because of overcrowding. Ms. Lohan is supposed to have a drinking problem and drug problems. A three-year sentence in any jail, crowded or not, should straighten her out. Of course, this being America, the chances of an actual sentence for this purpose are less than the chances of Mr. Herman Cain, GOP presidential candidate wannabe, talking sense.
• BTW, we don't want to go all mullah on our readers, but this person is a former Disney star. This being America, its inevitable that as soon as she is of age she is going to take off her clothes for a lot of money. We think this is sick, but then what do we know, we're from Iowa.

0230 November 2, 2011

• Greece: Danger of whiplash The danger is to the ordinary person trying to follow what's happening. Day before yesterday all seemed well, debtors had agreed to a 50% haircut on Greek bonds. Yesterday it was all up in the air again. The Greek PM, out of the blue, said he would submit the restructuring matter to a referendum vote. There's a good chance the Greek people will say "to heck with restructuring, we'd rather take the consequences of a default". Both the left and the right are appalled, because the politicians don't want to leave the Eurozone. So they're teaming up to defeat the call for a referendum. People are saying a referendum cannot be held before January 15, 2012, and in a situation where the financial markets react on a day-to-day basis, as commentators are saying, January 15 is a lifetime. so there is a general freak-out going and stock markets taking a beating worldwide.
• We personally would as soon see Greece default because trying to keep it in the Eurozone is totally dysfunctional. It does not belong, never did. if EU is going to apply bandaids to keep an untenable situation going, well, it'll catch up with the EU at some point. everyone pays homage to "the market", but lets remember when things go south, the market can totally crush a company or a country. Even with a 50% default, Greece cannot pay back the remaining money. The austerity demanded by the US is sending the economy into freefall, making it harder each day to repay even the reduced amount. Give up, people. Let Greece go.
• OUCH! The German violin child prodigy (now 26-years old) David Garrett tripped and fell on his Stradivarius violin and now said violin is kind of dead. Repairing it will cost $100,000, mere change considering these things go for $1.5-million and up, but its unlikely to sound the same again.
• http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/classical/news/virtuosos-trip-destroys-priceless-stradivarius-781531.html
• Before you jump off the Chesapeake Bay bridge, there's still 600 Stradivarius violins left in the world.
• On the other hand, considering road tolls are going up all over Maryland, if you live in our beautiful state or have business here, you may still want to jump off the bridge. If you put it off, you might not be able to afford the toll to get on to the bridge to throw yourself off and end your toll-paying days.
• Talking of tolls and infrastructure the Washington Post is at it again. One of its columnists challenges the notion that the US is approaching - say - Somalia in terms of infrastructure. The columnist has a point when he says - or should be saying - that since Belize has one road and one airport, just because they are in great condition doesn't mean Belize should be put ahead of the US. Accepted.
• But then columnist goes off the deep end. How can you compare, he says, places like Switzerland and Germany with the US, which is so much larger. At which point we are forced to ask "aaaaaaand?" US also just happens to have a GDP that is that much larger than individual Euro countries. So its perfectly fair to compare infrastructure in places like Finland or Sweden with that in the US.
• Then this genius columnist says you have to compare all the EU to all the US because they're of a size. True. But at this point we again have to go "aaaaaand?" Has it occurred to said columnist that half of the EU lived in the dark ages before the fall of the Berlin Wall? US has been free, independent, and enjoying a market economy since 1776. So what's the justification for comparing the infrastructure of - say - Kosovo to that of the US? Or Bulgaria or Poland or even East Germany for that matter.
• When Editor lived in India, he used to be mightily annoyed that Indian journalists thought they were experts on everything and could write knowledgably on everything, usually ending up making total asses of themselves. American journalists are supposed to be among the most professional in the world. But when someone who is a political columnist decides he's going to pontificate on infrastructure, unless he's spent ten years studying the matter, he too is going to make an ass of himself.
• And an undistinguished one at that, because in Washington we have gigantic herds of asses of every variety. So an asinine WashPo columnist will likely fail at being a notable ass.
• Dear UK Daily Mail We've been planning to write to you for some time, suggesting that you lay off Americans in your scandal-drenched first page. After all, if we want to read about American scandals, we can more usefully read an American tabloid. You severely overdo the American angle, as if no scandals take place in the UK or Europe. Teachers having sex with students (Americans)! Child abuse! (Americans. Violent criminals! (Americans). People in bizarre relationships with their pets! (Americans). Or is it your marketing department has said "put American in the headline and you'll sell better than if you say Moldavian?
• Case in point: your story yesterday headlines "American model fired after speaking about passionate relationship with Gadaffi's son." Well, rather than ogle the rather revealing photo of the American model, as you undoubtedly expected us to do, we sternly kept our eyes on the story and read it through.http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-2056263/Vanessa-Hessler-US-model-fired-supporting-Gaddafi-son-Mutassim.html
• Okay. So this child has Italian and American parents. She was born in Italy. So why is your story not labeled "Italian model?" Okay, so she spent ten years of her childhood in Washington. But she is a model for a German employer. So why not "German model"?
• Now perhaps you think you'll sell better if you say "American model". But if an American is reading your paper, he or she is going to say "Booooorrrrrring!". If you want to have the Americans gasping and panting, you'd do better to say "Italian" or "German" model. Us Americans think Italian and German models are the very epitome of depravity - admittedly ranking a poor second after British politicians who make our worst-behaved politicians look like saints. Indeed, belonging as we do to the former colonies, its built into our DNA that there is no depravity as depraved as British depravity. The French? Poo-foo. The French don't have a clue about real depravity. The Brits are the masters (or the mistresses) of the genre.
• Now. As for your photograph of said model. Model is 23 years old, which is why we said she's a child. The Americans are in(famous) for sexualizing their girls the minute they turn - say - sixteen. But frankly, we thought you Brits were not that into child pornography. At least not the mainstream press. Shame on you. Next time you have to print a picture of an American model - who is actually Estonian but once took a Delta flight from Rome to London, which would make her American by your reckoning, can you photoshop to show her in proper clothes? As any Victorian can tell you, the less you show, the more left to the imagination and the more interesting.
• (Okay, so the Editor had to tell the truth about his age but sometimes you have to tell the truth to make an important point. Quite coincidentally, the last time Editor had a date on Saturday night was when Vicky was still Queen. There. Now you know how old the Editor is. And we bet you are not one bit happier or a better person for knowing that. Thank you.)

0230 November 1, 2011

• It turned out a good day after all: first major American casualty of European crisis Honestly it did  not start as a good day. For some reason school was closed. so a day's earnings lost. Then the assignment Editor had to do for university was making no sense. On top of that, after spending four hours trying to find out what happened to the Portuguese Army's 4th Cavalry Regiment, Editor had to admit what people have been telling him all his life, that's he's plain crazy. But then suddenly the day turned out very well. Why?
• Well, a hedge fund company called MF something or the other has been forced to shut down after regulators wanted to know what its exposure to Europe was. Turns out, MF was quite exposed. The gig was up once the regulators brought that nugget of information to face the fresh air, and voila, we have the seventh largest bankruptcy in US history.
• So, that a hedge fund has been shot to death is in itself very happy-making. But the gent who headed this MF is the former head of Goldman Sachs, ex-Senator and ex-Governor of New Jersey, Jon Corazine. Though he's a Democrat, he is very much One-Of-Them responsible for the near collapse of the American financial system. Editor tends to be a bit populist - which is quite different from being a lefty which some accuse him of, so it was deeply, deeply satisfying to see another know-it-all get his just desserts when he tried to pull the same tricks he'd pulled at Goldman. And was All Hallows Eve, yesterday to boot. Very symbolic.
• Of course, Mr. Corzine is not going to be suffering much. He likely has a couple of hundred million tucked safely away and in a year or so you'll likely see him emerge, ready to pull another fast one using other people's money. Scum always rises to the surface.
• No so happy a day for the 2980 people who work for MF. But then, you just know when you go to work for a hedge fund you're selling your soul to the devil. Better to get a job at Burger King and die poor but with your reputation intact. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-31/mf-global-exposes-prop-trading-risk-that-volcker-wants-to-curb.html
• Portugal's 4th Cavalry Regiment so Editor was updating Portugal Army, and lo, he noticed Portugal's 4th Cav was no longer in the list of regiments on the Army website. This website is specifically designed in a way no one can make any sense of it unless they are in the Portuguese Army, which last we checked, Editor was not. The French, at least, have the decency to tell you in advance when a unit is to be disbanded. But sometimes official websites are inaccurate or plain wrong, so in the absence of the 4 Cav Editor could not just assume its been disbanded. Thus the four hour search. (Its because a training school.)
• Four hours is a lot of time to devote to figuring out one unit on one Army orbat. So why was the editor doing this? Well, he's putting together Concise World Armies 2012. CWA has never sold more than $5000 in any year, and has often sold less. It is proof of the adage content is nothing, marketing is nothing. Editor can either work on the content or the marketing, he cannot do both. After the ISP is paid for and half of the high-speed internet connection (at least what passes for high-speed in America) and the annual Maryland Property Filing Fee, and the couple of magazines Editor buys and the inevitable diversion of sales money in the months he doesn't make the mortgage, not much is left. So inevitably the experts Editor lured to work for CWA with the promise of global fame and at least the price of a decent evening out with their partner drifted off. So these days Editor basically outs the entire book together himself. Larry Smith, who got this thing started in 2000 is the only faithful feller left, and he has not been well. In any case, when there's 220 orbats to be done, some brutally long like the US, and some very short but with no data available like Vanuatu. there's just so much Larry can do.
• So considering Editor barely hangs on financially, month to month, does it make any sense to bring out Concise World Armies to such a level of detail that Portugal 4th Cav has to be accounted for?
• You're right. It makes no sense at all. Ergo, ipso facto, ad hoc and nevermore, Editor is bonkers. Orbat types tend to be obsessive compulsives with many unpleasant habits and many problems. You try going to take a leak when you're in your late sixties and have been sitting in front of the computer for 8 hours without a break. Editor, alas, is among the most severe OC types you are likely to encounter. There gets to be a point when doing this kind of work for neither financial reward or acknowledgement, year after year, becomes dysfunctional behavior.
• As a poster in one of the schools Editor went to last week put it: "If you go on doing what you are doing, you will get the results you've been getting."
• Very true. Now pardon us while we go back to search for just one more Armenia Army brigade number. Just one more. Then we'll stop. We promise. Then we'll spend four hours looking for just one more Azerbaijan Army brigade number. Hahahahahaha! 
• And before you ask: Google Translate is supposed to convert Armenian to English. It doesn't. But Armenian sure has a pretty script. Wish we could figure out what it means.

• How to break the speed of light Apparently its as simple as pointing a laser pointer at the moon. The light from the pointer gets to the moon at the speed of light. But it crosses the surface of the moon at 20 times the speed of light. No Einstein law broken because no information is conveyed, nor is any matter travelling faster than the speed of light. http://www.newscientist.com/blogs/nstv/2011/10/one-minute-physics-how-to-break-the-speed-of-light.html

0230 GMT October 31, 2011

• Global warming, once more into the breach dear friends etc So the issue was supposed to have been recently resolved. Some professor who was a skeptic went back and looked at a gazzilion skmillion wiffillion data points and said "I say, old chap, looks like I was wrong and there is global warming". (He's an American, so its unlikely he said "I say, old chap", but can our readers not interrupt while we're telling the story? We might forget what we're telling. The world media said "the issue is resolved", and the Editor was at peace, except that its more cost-effective to prepare for a warmer world than to stop putting CO2 in the air and what not.
• But now Daily Mail of UK says the issue is not settled. Someone took the same data this professor used, and showed there has been absolutely no increase in the last ten years. still further, when confronted with this anomaly, El Professore admitted there has been no rise in 13 years but says its a statistical fluke. As nearly as we understand it, you can say its a statistical flue after decades into the future, and only if it turns out these 13 years are a plateau but the temperature starts rising again. Since we aren't in the future decades down the line, it cannot be said this is a fluke. for example, some argue that among the pollutants we are pumping into the atmosphere are some that cool the earth. Others argue warming/cooling is caused by the sun's activities.
• (we've become bored with this post, so we'll move on.)
• The 1% doubles its share of national income So, in 1979 the top 1% had ten percent of national income, now it has twenty percent. That's the simple part. The difficult part is deciding (a) is this a problem; and (b) if it is a problem, what is the solution. Here's reasons why it is a problem.
• First, the 1% have doubled their take not because they are harder working, but because they've bought off Congress. And since they have that much more money now, its easier for them to keep Congress bought, so that in thirty more years we can look forward to them having 40% of the national income. Second, if everyone is doing well, then no one particularly objects if one group is doing better. But the 99% are not doing well. Non-supervisory workers have seen their incomes go flat over the last 30 years. Others have seen their incomes go up by a few percentage points. And right now you have whacking great unemployment, with the additional problem that a whacking great number of the employed are paid minimum wages.
• Okay, so there's a problem. What's the solution? Our friends on the left say tax the rich. Our friends on the right say cut back the federal government so that we have more of our money to spend. Both solutions are deeply flawed. Yes, the 1% shouldn't have the benefit of capital gains taxes and so on, but as long as the own Congress nothing will be done. As for having more of our money to spend, since when is the case that what the government takes vanishes into a black hole? The government creates jobs and demand for your and my services as much as the private sector. Does it do so more efficiently? Surely in many cases it does not. But equally, there are areas where the private sector cannot do a better job. Deciding where is the boundary is not easy.
• One that that severely diminishes the government's credibility is its habit of complicating its solutions. We may all agree that everyone should have health insurance, because it we don't, hospitals will pass on the cost of treating the uninsured to the insured. So all these years those with insurance have been getting beaten up with higher insurance rates. So why couldn't the government have come up with a simple, minimum benefit plan for the uninsured? Why not just give the uninsured vouchers to buy health care and be done with it? why can't the government tell the truth and say "our taxes will go up because there's no free lunch, but this is the right thing to do - we don't let Americans starve to death, and it should be the same for health insurance." But no. Government has to come up with a 4000-page plan which will generate "savings" which will be used to pay for those without insurance. If you believe there will be savings, you also believe Santa Claus comes down the chimney and leaves presents. (If Santa really did that, most of the time the "presents" would be deer plops.) The government is so inept it has not explained that the insured are already subsidizing the uninsured.
• (We've lost interest in our own argument so we will stop here, in mid-thought.)
• Letter on Kashmir from Sanjith Menon  May I know  from you the pros and cons of  reliving AFSPA Armed forces special powers act in J and K state. Many say that CI and CT will now be done by J&K Police in urban areas! which to me is an alarming situation, because of the known Jamaat Islami  affiliations the police there have. Yasin Malik once captured and sent to hospital, escaped from JKP guard is one incidence. The problems leading to, 1989 insurgency to my mind is as a result of JI work in that area. They consider themselves the progeny of the Mughals, and wants the entire sub continent back in Muslim rule as it existed before the British came in. Division of the Indian state again, under religious lines, to them, is to recreate more divisions within India. I'm again reiterating I am no communalist and have equal regards for Muslims as citizens in India. 
• From the Editor Given the frequency with which the Editor insists on shoving his point of view down readers' throats, it's always confusing to be actually asked for an opinion. Particularly when one knows nothing of the subject. Sure, Editor is happy to discuss any military aspects of Kashmir. But he has no clue what are the internal politics except (a) the separatists are a bunch of looney tuners because if they won independence from India, Pakistan would take them over in 12 hours, and then they'd learn what repression is; and (b) we don't see how a fraction of the population of Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh can claim to speak for the entire region. The Valley Sunnis want independence, but no one else does, including the Sikhs, Buddhists, Shias, and non-Valley Sunnis. We've seen one study that says if a free vote were held 78% of the people would vote against independence, not least because they know independence is a mirage with Pakistan sitting across the border and claiming Kashmir.
• But that's about all we know. In general, its not a good idea to use military law to deal with insurgents and malcontents. In India, however, the civil criminal justice system is weak. Police, witnesses and judges alike are easily intimidated. So using civil law is not a solution either.
• Personally, Editor does have a solution. Take over all Kashmir and be done with it. Leaving the state divided between India and Pakistan is one of the worst idiocies committed by the Government of India since 1947. It has greatly weakened India and diverted attention from more important matters.

0230 GMT October 30, 2011

• Saudis again being ultra-stupid What is about people with money that makes their brain freeze? The brother of a Saudi billionaire has pledged $900,000 to a Palestine cleric who has offered $100,000 for the kidnapping of an Israeli soldier. The cleric wants to force a trade for more prisoners held by the Israelis. The Saudi wants to make it a million.
• First, here is a member of the Saudi monarchy which runs the country with an iron hand, worrying about the oppression of Palestine by Israel? What gives any Saudi royal the moral standing to pass judgment on another country when it comes to issues of self-rule and human rights?
• Readers know we are against Israel's occupation of Palestine. But were we Israeli, we'd recommend the government offer a public reward for the kidnapping of a Saudi royal, the entire tribe being leeches of the worst kind and contributing nothing to humanity. The Israelis could keep this royal in reserve in case a soldier is kidnapped. Then they go tell the Saudis: "you want your royal back, get our soldier back."
• Second, what on earth makes this Saudi moron think the next time an Israeli soldier is kidnapped, the government will release anyone in exchange? We guarantee readers this was a one-off deal.
• Now, in case readers don't understand why we are making a vitriolic attack on a Saudi royal. That's because this lot is the biggest financier of terrorists and that makes the ruling class are enemies of America. They need to be obliterated, not pandered to. As long as America does not act against the House of Saud, it can have no credibility in its claim to be fighting terrorists. Oil is not an excuse: we have many times more than the Saudis.
• We also despise the Saudis because they have a racial scale for paying money in case a foreign worker gets killed. American and European white are at the top of the scale. Indians and Bangladeshis are at the bottom. That alone, in Editor's opinion, justifies the India government refuse to let Indian nationals work in Saudi, and get the Saudi Embassy out of Delhi. Of course, when it comes to kissing Saudi butt, there is one country that handily beats the US, and that is India.
• http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=243644
• A sensible article on why the Eurozone bail-out will fail This article was sent by reader Luxembourg, and you can read it at http://tinyurl.com/3u7jl96 We'd summarize it for you, but it deserves to be read in full.
• Meanwhile, this is what passes for "experts" in global finance. One "expert" has said that for Greece to leave the Euro would be a disaster as the drachma would depreciate and that would make paying back Greek debts much more expensive. Does this blithering idiot not realize that if Greece leaves the Eurozone, it will default on its debt so there is no question of paying anything back? As for a total default being deadly to Greece, bosh, tosh, and nonsense. It will be deadly to owners of capital. Greece will go through a few years of hardship, then it will straighten out. Meanwhile, there is so much money floating around the globe that new lenders will arrive the day after Greece defaults. They'll figure out some extra-clever way of insuring their debt and everyone will be in business again.
• What people who say "ooooh, default would be catastrophic" have yet to explain why someone who lends money on interest has to be assured of 100% security. People who invest in a business are taking a risk; if things go well, they make money; if things don't go well, they lose money. That's called capitalism. Why should it be different for people who invest in countries?
• By the way, someone told us the other the day that its just not true the US has never defaulted. In 1933 the US said it wasn't going to pay its World War I in bonds in gold as promised; instead it was going to pay in paper currency. That's a default.

0230 GMT October 29, 2011

Iraq: And so it starts

• Years ago orbat.com predicted once the Americans left Iraq, the country would decide to breakup. Our reasoning was the Kurds not only want their own state, they had one under US protection before US decided Kurds should be part of a unified Iraq. But their nationalist aspirations would not be squashed. We'd mentioned that an independent Kurd state would send Turkey and Iran bananas, so it wasn't going to be an easy transition.
• As for the Sunnis, the Shia 60% majority had no time for them or any wish to live with them. And in any case serious ethnic cleansing took place. There is a school of thought that it wasn't the surge and General Petraeus who brought peace to Iraq as much as the Shias had achieved their objectives of ethnic cleansing. This may be true, but its also possible to argue that the surge stopped the Shias from massacring the Sunnis wholesale. That may not have been an Iraqi objective, but it was a US objective. Still, we'd said once the US leaves, if the Sunnis showed any inclination to live in peace with the Shia, good old Head Terrorist al-Sadr would make sure they regretted their choice.
• So. US hasn't even left, and already the Shia's are striking out at the Sunnis in Salahaudin Province, a Sunni majority area that was the birthplace of Saddam Husain. Sunnis are being fired from government jobs and arrested. with the US grip loosened, "arrested" is just like the good old Saddam days, i.e., oftentimes the government doesn't feel like telling you where the arrested person has been taken - or even if he is under arrest and not just "disappeared".
• So, Salahaudin has declared itself autonomous. a symbolic gesture, we are told, because the Iraqi constitution allows autonomy only by referendum. This legalistic emphasis is, of course, 100% American. The point is that with the US gone, the Shia government will resume settling scores as it already is. The ready answer is "why are you getting upset, you yourself engaged in de-Baathification, America." Of course, the Americans will say "yes, but it was a mistake," and the government will gently say "no, no, good buddies, you had it right the first time.
• Now, one of the sensible things America could have done was arranged a peaceful breakup. The Kurds and Shias can look after themselves - oil, and lots of it; we'd suggested the US protect a Sunni homeland and give foreign aid as the Sunnis would have no oil in their part. This would have saved the vast expense of the surge and all that.
• But the sensible thing and what America does are usually two quite different things. This is not, as foreigners often tells us, because Americans are blithering idiots - though they can often be, just as any other country can be. Its because America is like a 100-armed octopus encircling the globe, and America's logical course in one part of the world may conflict with another part.
• The obvious case in this region is Israel. In a purely geopolitical sense it makes no sense to put Israel before all other American Arab interests. Not only has the US done so, not only has it paid a colossal price, and not only will this policy inevitable go down to defeat as the Arabs become democratic - and therefore more determined to help Palestine, but you can see that because of domestic compulsions, the US really has no choice but to support Israel. (PS: everyone in the world knows it, which is why they smirk, laugh, giggle, and make rude noises from their nether regions when the US pretends that only it is capable of negotiating a peace for Palestine. As far as the rest of the world is concerned, the US is the problem, not the solution. But every country has its fantasies and the US is no different.)
• We've already said that an independent Kurdistan would drive Turkey crazy, and Turkey is a US ally. For how much longer one can't say, because the country is fed up of begging to be called European, and more and more, it is telling the west "the heck with you, we were great once, and we will be great again". But anyway, for now it is an ally. If Kurdistan declares independence, Iran and Turkey will invade, and that will not help the US.
• So what about the Sunnis? Well, if the US got a peaceful Sunni secession US might even recover some of the ground it lost with the Sunni Arabs when it overthrew Saddam and let Iran rise. What are the chances US will follow this course? About zero: US has too many problems to think clearly.
• The thing to remember is there is nothing permanent about countries. India and Pakistan were one country for millennia, but in 1947 they split. (Yes, we know according to western political frames of references India was not a country till the British made it one, but first, that is historically not true, and second, western political norms are not the only norms in the world, HELLO, people, get a life please.) When the Soviet Union broke up, Ukraine and Belarus which had been part of Russia for centuries became independent. The United Kingdom has been around for 400 years, well, its decided to peacefully split, cooperating when its to everyone mutual advantage and doing its own thing when that's more advantageous. And so on and so forth - just the other day the newest new nation was born, South Sudan. Afghanistan may split, Pakistan may split, and except that India has a very strong center, there's all kinds of politicians who would just love to have their own country in the name of self-determination, but with the real purpose of becoming petty tyrants undisturbed by Delhi. Yugoslavia split into seven states, for heavens sake. Czecho-Slovakia, get it? Belgium would love to split, had its people time to spare from drinking beer and eating chocolate. (And you know what? That's not a bad reason to stay in the same country. Better reason than for Iraq to stay together.)
• So it is with Iraq. As nations go, it is a latecomer. The west put Iraq together from three provinces of the Ottoman Empire, after World War I, so what is the big deal if the three provinces go their own way?
• And never forget people, had the US stuck to its own constitution, the US too would have been a country for less than a century. And going back a bit further, the US itself was a part of Great Britain.

0230 GMT October 28, 2011

• Libya NATO military ops end October 31 This has to be just about the shortest shooting war the US has been involved in for many years, Panama excepted. Good job everyone - and please don't forget to go home.
• Updating Concise World Armies for the next year, we're struck by how little the Europeans, Japanese, ROK etc.  spend on their defense - 1 to 2% is the norm. We spend a bit more than 6% when you count homeland security, coast guard, N-weapons, intelligence, VA and so on. Editor hates to say this, because he's all for a strong defense posture (or a strong offense posture, if you want to call a spade a spade). Nonetheless, given the financial problems the US has, isn't it time to rethink what we're doing?
• The intel agencies, at least, are thinking of saving 25% of their IT budgets by building converged systems - we're assuming "converged" means commonality. http://defensenews.com/story.php?i=8077497&c=AME&s=TOP
• Meanwhile, the new Zumwalt class destroyers will be 14,500-tons. Aegis cruisers of today are 10,000 tons. The new destroyers are not much lighter than the Baltimore-class heavy cruisers the US Navy built during World War 2, about the biggest cruisers anywhere. Their full-load was 17,000-tons.
• Cannibalizing old satellites to build new ones - in space Here's an innovative idea, which DARPA hopes to test in 2015. Use a space robot to take parts from dead sats and make new ones - in orbit. If DARPA is ready to test this idea in just three years, the odds are its been working on it for several years now. And, of course, if you have a robot that can assemble new satellites from old in space, the same feller could disassemble satellites as well. Make it stealthy and other countries may not even find out till its too late. Of course, the X-37 is already operational - the second test mission has been underway for several months, if you want to do a snatch and grab. Eat your heart out James Bond. http://www.newscientist.com/blogs/onepercent/2011/10/grave-robbing-robot-could-revi.html
• US GDP grows 2.5% 3Q - So why are we all feeling rotten? These days 2.5% growth is something to write home about. But its no consolation because (a) one decent quarter does not a real recovery make; (b) the unemployment rate is not budging; (c) the housing market collapse, which wiped out  $7-trillion of Americans wealth, will not be straightened out till 2020. Also, of course, construction is one of the biggest drivers of the US economy, so if construction is in the doldrums, so are we all.
• Plus there's the circus called the US Congress, which hasn't got a budget together for a couple of years now, and can't agree on debt reduction. Approval for Congress is in the single digits, which means 9 of 10 people think its doing a lousy job. Its hard to find 9 of 10 Americans agreeing on any issue.
• Then there's Europe, dark clouds over and all that. The Europeans are said to have made progress in their current crisis, but you just know if lenders exist Greece with 60% losses, Spain, Italy, and even little Ireland which has not complained about the great misfortune that has come its way, will start wondering why they are being required to pay 100 cents on the Euro. Moreover, no one has decided who is going to take the 60% Greek loss. The banks say the insurers should; the insurers are saying Greece has not defaulted so they shouldn't have to pay. In Greece we were talking about $300-billion. Italy and Spain are trillion dollar economies - $2-trillion and $1.5-trillion respectively. If they start demanding partial repayment, then we'll have Greece all over again times ten.
• Solyndra The question of if the government should subsidize new technologies with guaranteed loans aside, people should remember if the government (public sector) made a bad bet, so did the supposedly efficient private sector, i.e., Solyndra itself. Aha, you say, but at least when a private company mucks up, my taxes are not being used to subsidize it. Sorry, good buddies. Every time a private company loses money, your taxes are being used, because the company writes off its losses against taxes. Moreover, when a private company decides to give itself lavish digs and private jets, you the taxpayer are also subsidizing them, because they write if off as expenses.
• We'd mentioned the other day that you and I don't get to deduct our expenses from our taxes, except in limited ways. So why are companies allowed to do that and not individuals?
• We need to stop letting anyone deducting anything for anything, companies and individuals both. If all income is taxes, not just net income, you could reduce tax rates substantially.

0230 GMT October 27, 2011

• Before you ask no, Editor did not get a single dollar for his astonishingly creative of bigotry yesterday. Editor senses racism: it seems if you are not a white bigot no one takes you seriously enough to send money. But don't worry, Editor will be back on this topic.
• "Euro Armageddon is approaching, but it's too boring and complicated to explain" says Daniel Knowles of the UK Daily Telegraph. We like this youngster already. He refers us to an article http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/09/06/jp-morgan-explains-the-euro-crisis-with-lego/ - "JP Morgan analyst explains the Euro crisis with Lego" and says the explanation is no more absurd than the explanations people are giving for the Euro crisis. He says no one understands what is going on, let alone what to do about it, and the whole thing is going to blow up.
• This is the first sensible thing we've heard anyone say about the Euro crisis. http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielknowles/100113515/euro-armageddon-is-approaching-but-its-too-boring-and-complicated-to-explain/
• Now all we need is for an American to truth-tell about the US economy. No one knows what to do and things are getting steadily worse. Admitting this might be a vital step to actually understanding the crisis.
• "A revolution is not a tea party" Mao allegedly said. Someone quoted this in reference to the revenge the new government's fighters are extracting against the loyalists, even as the Human Rights people go burbling along about "war crimes". The Libyan people suffered 42 years of violence at Gadaffi's hands. If anyone thinks now, snap, from Day 1 the former rebels are going to establish and follow standards acceptable to the Hague when it comes to treatment of the former regime members and those fighters who refused to surrender, they need their heads examined.  And suggestions some Human Rights people are making that somehow NATO is responsible are the height of absurdity.
• What the west does need do, nevertheless, is to get out of Libya and let the Libyans take care of themselves. However they do it. The Libyan government is asking NATO not to end its mission for now and to help with rebuilding. Negative, negative, negative. Nation-building is the way to danger. The US in particular is absolutely no good at anything to do with peace. It is good at war, and as anyone knows, its best to play to one's strengths and not to one's weaknesses. US should be focusing on whacking Bashir Assad of Syria, not trying to get fractious and probably irreconcilable Libyan tribes together.
• So the Tunisian election winners want Sharia law They don't have a majority, but are the largest party and are looking to form a coalition. They are mumbling things about respecting all religions, the usual kind of baffling them with bull-poop. should we be worried?
• Not one little bit. Lets go back a bit. The US rationale for supporting every tin pot dictator during the Cold War - at least the ones the Soviets weren't supporting - was that otherwise those countries would fall to the communists.
• Now, we're not blaming anyone, because it sure looked that way to anyone on the scene in the late 1940s. First the Soviets snuffed out the democracies of Eastern Europe that had the audacity to restore their democracies after the fall of Germany. Then the communists took over China, which had been a US friend/ally. Then the Soviets were busy stirring up trouble in Western Europe. Then came the Korean War, and half of Korea went red. Then the communists defeated the French. Huge swaths of the newly decolonized world declared themselves to be "socialist", not least India, the largest of the ex-colonial nations, and made kissy-faces with the Soviets. There was a brutal civil war in Greece. Egypt fell to "socialists". The Red army was poised to roll west. Etc etc.
• So the US thinking the dictators had to be supported - ROK, South Vietnam, Indonesia, South and Central America, Africa, etc etc.
• But ultimately what happened - we argue - is that our opposition gave the other side and its dictators an excuse to maintain their hold on power. This delayed the fall of communism.
• While the mistakes we made back then were inevitable, there is no need to make these mistakes again. There is no need to replace the Red Menace with the Green Menace. You either believe Rousseau when he said it is humankind's natural instinct to be free, or you don't. If you believe that, when those oppressed by the Green Menace ask for help, by all means give it in a low key way, the way we are doing in Iran. If the Greenies don't leave us alone, whack them, as we are doing in Yemen. But for the rest, let the people of these countries figure out things for themselves.
• For the rest, be nice and polite to everyone, be they Taliban, Egyptian Brotherhood, Tunisian Islamists, whatever. By all means use all the low key tools at your disposal to get them to change their behavior. but don't confront them directly. Its not going to work.
• The odds anyone will listen to our prescription are zero Republicans and Democrats alike cannot come to terms with the reality the American star is setting. They want to lash out in every direction, just to prove to themselves that Americans are still a virile race who by sheer force of arms can impose their will on anyone. No use pointing out to these people that our experience in Afghanistan shows just how impotent we are. People say we should have sent 250,000 troops to Afghanistan. Perhaps we should have. But we couldn't because the fading will of the American people no longer permits sacrifice. we've become soft - it had to happen, since we won the greatest war known to humans, the Cold War. (In terms of people killed of course it wasn't anything to write home about. But in scope, it was the biggest war of all - no corner of the world was not involved.)
• A sign of decadence and degeneracy is when a nation is not willing to sacrifice to maintain its position but still screams and shouts threats left and right, as if that will make us number one again. Our leaders owe it to us to tell us the truth: are we willing to increase taxes by 50% and double the size of the military? If we're not, its best to pull back from foreign adventures. And there's a limit to what UAVs can do, by the way.
• And have we forgotten Second Indochina? We sent 750,000 troops to that war, spent seven years in direct combat, and imposed no restraints on ourselves except rule out the use of nuclear weapons. And using nukes at Khe San would have really made the US look good in the world, wouldn't it have? We'd have used them if we thought we could get away with it.
• Now its true as one grows older one's memory gets a little fuzzy. So maybe we need the youngsters to read up their history and tell us: that was one heck of a glorious victory, Second Indochina, wasn't it? It wasn't? See, we've been telling you when Westy asked for an additional 250,000 troops after Tet, LBJ should have sent them.
• But more seriously, you know what? America did actually pacify South Vietnam. But it paid such a price that when Giap came down with his third army - having lost the first two, in 1968 and 1972, Congress wouldn't even approve $850-million for ordnance for the South Vietnamese, and it wouldn't send its tactical fighter wings and attack carriers back, and Giap won.
• And today Vietnam is a BFF of ours. Wouldn't it have been simpler to be polite to Ho in the first place?
• And so with the Green Menace. The fundamentalists may hate American social values all they want. But you know what? Because American social values appeal to the basest of our instincts, they are insidious. They cannot be fought off. No one can fight off sex, music, and having a great time. The Greenies will lose if they try.
• Somehow people thought it was just an ironical coda that the soldiers and sailors who took out Bin Laden found pornography in his digs. It wasn't an ironical coda. It was the whole point: it showed just how badly Bin Laden and his vision of restoring some hypothetical Islamic purity failed. It wasn't the bullet in the head that defeated him. Che Guevara died and became a hero. It was western pornography that completely undercut everything OBL said he stood for.

0230 GMT October 26, 2011

• Operation Long Knife is actually Operation Short Knife We can all relax; contrary to reports in British papers last week US is not about to chase Haqqanis in Pakistan. Operation Long Knife is confined strictly to the Afghanistan side of the border and involved two US brigades plus an alleged 25,000 Afghan troops. The Afghan figure can be that high only if the US is counting sheep and goats.
• All this operation will do is push the Haqqanis into Pakistan, back on their main bases. Then the US will say to Pakistan "Your move, we closed the border as you demanded." Then Pakistan will either do a pretend operation or refuse to do anything at all. Then the US will put pressure on Pakistan. Then the Pakistanis will threaten to stop cooperating. Then the US will go kissy faces. This is what is happening right now, after Pakistan's threats in response to US threats about the Haqqanis.
• Don't worry if none of this makes sense. Our national security and military leadership is the best in the world, or so we're told. Best jackasses in the world, more likely. To humor whom the taxpayer is paying $100-billion/year. No problemo: we're the richest country in the world, aren't we?
• Why is it Rush Limbaugh makes millions being an idiot and the Editor barely makes the monthly mortgage? Is it Mr. Limbaugh's case he is a bigger idiot than the Editor? If so, Mr. Limbaugh had better be ready to settle this question in the boxing ring, because thems fighting words.
• Mr. Limbaugh's latest is that the Lord's Resistance Army is a Christian army fighting Muslims and here Mr. Obama is sending troops to finish of the LRA. This is news to us that the LRA is fighting Muslims, because all it does is to kidnap children, rape, loot, murder, mutilate, and burn down villages. Mr. Limbaugh had better be prepared to show where in the New Testament Jesus told his followers that that's how one becomes Christian.
• It drives Editor into a jealous fury that this Limbaugh Clown is paid for his inanities whereas the Editor is not paid for his. Where is the justice?
• Does Editor have to say that Gadaffi was a sweet, loveable man who was simply assisting his citizens in getting to heaven quicker by killing them, and as such he was a true saint, and instead of villifying the man we should be sending his name to the Pope? Okay, if that's what it takes to see some serious $$$, the Editor says that. Editor also says that Mao's killing of 40-50 million Chinese in the Great Leap was a mercy because China couldn't have fed all its people. Similarly, Stalin was a humanitarian because as everyone knows, the Soviet people had short, miserable, unhappy lives and he was putting them out of their misery. The point that Stalin was making them miserable in the first place is completely beside the point.
• As for Hitler, its all the west's fault for defeating Germany in World War I. Had the French had the decency to lie down and think of England in winter, and the English to think sex is something the French do and is un-English,  and the Americans to mind their own business, Germany would have won World War I and there would have been no Hitler. And Hitler actually did America a favor by persecuting Jews, otherwise so many brilliant Jews would not have fled to America and where would we be then? Probably 100th in terms of infrastructure instead of the 35th we actually are. The other thing Hitler did that was really good was that he stole so much by way of food from France that the French didn't have enough to eat, and goodness gracious, French women have never been as slim and gorgeous before or after. How can anyone in their right mind criticize Hitler?
• As for Al Qaeda, the Taliban, and al Shaabab, its all the fault of the Christian armies that stopped the Muslim onslaught at the gates of Vienna. Naturally Al Qaeda, the Taliban, and al Shaabab feel thwarted and unhappy that they have no pictures of the Kardashian Sisters or New jersy Snookie. And just think: had the Muslims taken over Europe we'd be saving so much money on police, judges, and jails because thieves would simply get their hands cut off. We would not need a Securities and Exchange Commission or Dodd-Frank because Mr. Blankfein and his buddies would have no arms, legs, or head, and could not rob us again. Women would not be allowed to drive so they'd have to stay home and cook, and America would not be committing suicide by eating junk food. And since women would not be allowed out except in the company of a family male, they wouldn't be assaulted. As for the Turks and the Armenians, if Mr. Obama did not insist that No Child is Left Behind, we could all grow up ignorant and not have the faintest idea where Armenia and Turkey are or what happened 100 years ago. Ignorance is Bliss, Knowledge Leads to Hate.
• Then if the west didn't have these silly rules about not making a public nuisance, we could be like the Indians and go pee against the lamp-posts and in the alleys, saving enough flush water to save the Florida swamps, And as for the Chinese - okay, give us a minute and we'll think of something snarky, tasteless, and totally false to say about the Chinese. How about if we hadn't brought civilization to China they would have no cars to drive, the price of oil would be SO much lower, and the Chinese wouldn't be manipulating the price of rare earths because they would have no idea that the earths were rare.
• We have to stop here and check editor@orbat.com's PayPal account. Doubtless the Editor is already at least a 1-millionaire.

0230 GMT October 25, 2011

• Wikileaks founder deserves F in arithmetic This gentleman says that donation were running at Euro 100,000/month before the US told crfedit card companies and PayPal to block Wikileaks' account or else. This cost the organization Euro 40 to 50 million he says. Right. Arithmetic time, people. Lets give Wikileaks E100,000/month for all of 2010 and through October 2011. That's 22 months. That's E2.2-million, not E40-to-50-million.
• He further says the organization needs E3.5-million to operate next year, which is three times what it was getting in 2010. Is it permitted to ask why this 300% increase, and where did the E100,000/month of last year go?
• The gentleman said the financial difficulties mean Wikileaks will have to cease publications at the end of 2011. We weep for him.
• Further, he has complained to European authorities that the financial blockade against Wikileaks is anti-competitive.
• Well, actually no. By being in possession of, and by publishing classified material, Mr. Wikileaks committed a crime in the US, and possibly in the UK too, but very likely not in Sweden. Of course he doesn't want to go to Sweden for well-known reasons. Since he broke US law, US government has every right to tell any financial institutions handling money from him that also does business in the US, which is just about everyone in the world except perhaps for the Fifth Bank of The Iranian Revolutionary Guards, that it must cease and desist.
• Mr. Wikileaks thought he was being so clever exposing the US and other governments and capitalist organizations like Bank of America. Honestly, it does not pay to antagonize the US Government. People don't understand to what extent the US Government will go, spending millions or tens of millions if it must, to get you if you get into a grudge match with Washington. And if Mr. Wikileaks thinks the US diplomatic cables thing is over, he is misinformed. The US will be waiting for as many years as neccessary to get him.
• http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/oct/24/wikileaks-suspends-publishing
• The man who killed Gadaffi freely tells the world he did it because he had the dictator in his power and could not bear to let him go alive. To prove he did the deed, he displayed the blood-stained T-shirt and ring he took from Gadaffi. Obviously this gentleman did not get the message from western human rights groups that he committed a war crime, because here is boasting about the deed.
• And people, good luck getting him arrested. People will start shooting if the Libyan government tries to take him into custody at the West's behest.
• The photographs released by a media organization lead us to question whether Gadaffi would have survived even if he had not been shot. He was repeatedly beaten with force on his head and face, and probably the only thing that stopped the blows was he was killed. So perhaps the man did Gadaffi a favor, finishing him off all at once instead of letting him suffering further.
• http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/oct/24/wikileaks-suspends-publishing
• Cryptographers break 18th Century Copiale Cipher but early 1400s Voynich manuscript still untouched. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/25/science/25code.html?src=un&feedurl=http%3A%2F%2Fjson8.nytimes.com%2Fpages%2Fscience%2Findex.jsonp

0230 GMT October 24, 2011

In the absence of real news, the Editor will now proceed to pontificate. This might be a good time to take that nap you've denied yourself all last week.

• Separating corporation and state Someone said the other day that we have a constitutional separation of church and state. Now we need to separate corporation and state.
• This makes sense, given that the money is the new religion and the oversize corporation its high priest. Editor is reminded of a saying in India: when you give money to the priest at the temple, he says "I will now throw the money into the air; God's share will rise to heaven, mine will fall back to earth." Seems the Indians - as usual - were way ahead of the rest of the world, because this is pretty much how much a modern large corporation operates.
• So here you have the corporations, whining, weeping, wailing, and threatening the government and the people: "unless you dismantle regulations, you will kill jobs." Who knows: the corporations may be right. In which case we, the people, should offer a deal: we'll vote to get rid of the regulations, if you stop buying up Congress to support your bottom line.
• We have the unedifying sight of the big corporations insisting that private enterprise is efficient, and government is not. The recent recession, which will likely go on for years, was brought about by those supposedly efficient big corporations like the banks. America likely would be restricted to making car parts for Japanese, German, and Chinese automobiles had Washington not bailed out the auto companies. You want examples of private efficiency, visit the balance sheets of the airline companies over the last 40 years. if the government stopped the home mortgage deduction, the construction industry would likely collapse. It would be interesting to see what would happen to the profits of the oil industry if the government made them pay the real cost of getting overseas oil to the US, i.e., having them pay for security of the sea lanes. Readers might also want to contemplate what would happen to the American pharma industry if the government withdrew the de facto protection it gives the industry with its myriad rules, which work against those who can sell drugs in the US at prices ten to twenty times lower.
• Are we then saying that the government should run the oil companies, the banks, the airlines, the auto manufacturers, and so on? No, we are not saying that. We are saying that big business in the US thrives because it manipulates the government to slope the level field.
• Further, if the big corporations insist they are people and as such enjoy the right of free speech as expressed in their paying hundreds of million dollars a year to buy politicians, let the corporation pay the same taxes as the people. We are not talking about tax rates. We are asking why corporations get to pay taxes only on their profits, and get to use thousands (tens of thousands?) of loopholes to minimize those profits, including keeping the money outside the US, whereas you and I get to pay on our income. By the way, keep your overseas income overseas and not pay tax on it, and see what the government does to you. You will not be a happy camper, we can assure you. If corporations claim the rights of individuals, let them pay tax as individuals. Then the government could seriously reduce tax rates for everyone, corporations and individuals alike.
• Some readers might accuse us of being anti-capitalist. Wrong. We are firmly capitalist. But if the government is to stay out of the way of capitalists by dismantling regulations, then equally the corporations should accept no unequal treatment from the government. The combination of corporations and government working hand-in-hand is NOT capitalism. It is state-supported and state-protected business. Quite different.

0230 GMT October 23, 2011

• More confusion in Libya Gadaffi's son Saif was first reported critically injured by an RAF strike and captured. Now it turns out he may have escaped. How a man with his arms blown off can escape custody is a great mystery to us. It would seem unlikely he could survive for more than an hour or so after such serious injuries unless immediately hopitalized,
• Meanwhile, according to investigations of records in Tripoli, the government estimates Gadaffi stashed $200-billion overseas. This being Libya, the figure could be revised to $20-billion or even $2-billion. Given how casual the Libyans are about their claims of having killed or captured former regime officials, a few zeroes here and there should not be taken too seriously.
• The details of the air strike against the Gadaffi convoy are available at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8843684/Gaddafis-final-hours-Nato-and-the-SAS-helped-rebels-drive-hunted-leader-into-endgame-in-a-desert-drain.html The article clearly shows the Libyan militias remained incompetent to the end. The British SAS and Qatari SF advisors had warned the militias to watch all exit routes from Sirte. So naturally they did not watch, which is about par for the course. Luckily a US Predator picked up the convoy, handed off to a NATO E-3 AWACS, which directed two French fighters for the attack.
• Financial crisis We thought we were being quite bold when we predicted Greece bond-holders would have to take a 50% loss. Now a new figure is being tossed around, 60%. Which will still leave Greece heavily indebted and unable to make payments because its economy is rapidly deteriorating due to the budget cuts and tax increases. So don't be surprised if even 60% proves too optimistic.
• Colder weather driving New York protestors away says Brietbart.com at http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.076554f0f841174041014cbd3464a9be.4c1&show_article=1 The protestors are not allowed to erect tents, and so are facing the elements. Of course, winter has nowhere near arrived, there's still two months of fall. The protestors have asked permission for tents. Mayor Bloomberg says that the constitution guarantees free speech. It does not guarantee tents.
• Romney assails Obama for incompetent Iraq negotiations Clearly Mr. Romney thinks he could have negotiated better and kept US troops in Iraq -  for what purpose is unclear. Question for Mr. Romney: has he heard of a certain terrorist called al-Sadr, who is now an elected member of parliament and without whose large faction no one can form a government in Iraq? Does Mr. Romney think he could have persuaded al-Sadr to change his mind? al-Sadr was willing for some thousands of US troops to remain - horse-trading with Premier Maliki, who probably would have accepted ten or twenty thousand troops. But al-Sadr said "no immunity".
• It isn't too late. President Obama should send Romney to persuade al-Sadr to change his mind. One meeting with the Bearded Self-Proclaimed Messiah of Iraq, with his crazy eyes and venomous mouth, will lead to Mr. Romney catching the next plane back.
• But why keep American troops in Iraq, anyway? Mr. Romney says to counter Iran's influence. Dear, dear Romney. Straight as an arrow and confused as a 6-year old whose ice cream cone has been stolen by an armed and dangerous escaped circus monkey.If you were so worried about Iran, maybe you should have advised President Bush not to overthrow Saddam. In case you haven't figured it out, overthrowing Saddam gave Iran its greatest foreign policy victory since whenever. Iraq is a democracy, Shias are 60% of the population, so Shias rule. Iran is Shia. Get that, Mr. Romney? The ties between Iraqi Shia leaders and Iran are extensive and deep. Can you understand? And here's a little hint: Iraq is going to start joining Iran in funding Shia insurgencies in the Arab world. There's a whole world of pain waiting for the US.
• Karzai says he will side with Pakistan in case of war with the US This is what happens when you Americans fail to make sure Karzai is taking his medicine. Is this any way to conduct your foreign policy?
• Our theory is Karzai is going kissy-faces with the Pakistanis in the hope Islamabad lets him continue as President after the Americans leave. Are the Pakistanis crazy? Doubtful. When the Taliban take Kabul, if Karzai hasn't run away to his restaurant in Washington DC, he will be the first person publically executed. Then Amnesty International can declare his death a war crime and demand explanations of the Taliban. (Sometimes we really crack ourselves up.)
• http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44998270

0230 GMT October 22, 2011

• What's going on along the Pakistan border? We spoke with our South Asia correspondent, Mandeep Bajwa. He hasn't heard anything, but he says a big raid to capture some of the Haqqani leadership is likely in the offing.
• The 1883 comet We hope you read the article reader Luxembourg said and that we linked to in Twitter.http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/27264/ This is not science fiction, but an article in MIT's Technology Review. Looks like this feller was in some 3000+ pieces, each between 50- and 800-meters across and 70- to 1,000-meters long.. The comet was between 600-million and 2.5-trillion tons. It was likely 600- to 6000-kilometers from earth as it went by. A bit closer and earth would have been whacked over 3000 times in two days. Okay, so most of the fragments would have landed in the oceans because water covers most of our planet. But events near coasts would have led to tsunamis, and several hundred impacts with the continents would have created a big mess.
• The thing about the universe is that it an incredibly violent place. And the universe does not care that we are living on earth. It does not care what we have achieved. In the universe, if your number comes up, that's it.
• The asteroid that hit the Yucatan sixty-million years ago was ten-kilometers across. Now Indian scientists say it was likely only one of seven pieces of rock that hit the earth at the same time or close together in time. What a mess that must have been.
• We are not suggesting you live your every moment as if an asteroid is going to whack us, but a bit of humility about our importance in the universe might not be a bad thing.
• What kind of economy does America have? Clearest explanation we've seen comes from Nassim Taleb, himself a Wall Street guy who wrote the The Black Swan. Business weeks quotes him as saying that America is neither capitalist nor socialist, its just somehow we all work for the banks. so true. Now we need a name: "Bankist" doesn't have zing. Neither does "Financeist". But the motto of the new American economy comes easy: "What yours is ours, and what is ours is ours".
• Occupy Wall Street We sympathize with the OWS lot, as long as we don't have to look upon their Super Grubby appearance and encampments. For once the American police are being sensible, because nothing acts as an accelerant more than repression.
• Now, while we sympathize with OWS, the inevitable question arises: what's to be done about Wall Street? Wall Street controls the presidency and the Congress, and we doubt the big finance CEOs are weeping in their pink hankies because OWS hates them. You don't get be a Louis Blankfein or John Paulson by being sensitive to what others think of you. Its easy to say: "Call out the vote". But it doesn't matter who you elect, the money people are going to buy them.
• Remember, the richest people in America don't make a thing. They push pieces of paper around (more accurately they push bytes around) as they gamble with your money. If they win, the gains are all theirs.If they lose, the losses are yours.
• Energy subsidies All right, children, have your fun beating up President Obama on this energy subsidy thing. Just keep in mind, its a 2005 Bush program. The pigs feeding at the taxpayer trough have no political ideology when it comes to looting the taxpayer.
• And people can gripe all they want, it doesn't change the hard reality: according to one estimate we read (by the industry and likely to be exaggerated) last year the Chinese subsidized their solar power energy to the tune of $29-billion. Even if its a third that, its a whacking great amount of money. So how are you supposed to compete when Chinese solar panels sell for a quarter of good quality western ones? Sure, classical economics says, well, let the Chinese make the solar panels, we'll make what we're good at and sell it to them.
• Problem is, no one has come up with what to make that the Chinese will buy from us. Or at least continue buying after they reverse engineer or buy the technology, and then make it at half the price, while blocking your exports.
• Another execution Gadaffi's son Mutassim was also executed after capture. Apparently someone cut his throat. Meanwhile son Saif has been captured. One set of reports said he was shot in the leg as he sought to escape near Ziltan, west of Tripoli. But other reports say his vehicle was caught by an RAF Tornado and he has lost both his arms. We are not to going bet on his chances, giving the way his father and brother died.
• By the way, the French aircraft that strafed the convoy in which Gadaffi fled Sirte killed at least 50 people in the convoy.
• Why are we mentioning this? Well, for some reason people now days think war is an antiseptic video game. Unfortunately it is not. People are getting horrified at the remains of what was Gadaffi. But where is the video of the 1200 prisoners who were executed in prison many years ago, just some of the 60,000 disappeared, or the videos of the thousands of executions Gadaffi forces conducted during the uprising? We are not going to sit here and moralize about the bad, bad former rebels, now government troops. If you'd lost family and friends to a bloodthirsty dictator, you'd fight to be the first to stick a knife in him. Many of the troops in Sirte are from Misurata, which particularly suffered from the siege by Gadaffi forces. If they want blood, we for one understand. People keep talk of Libya being a tribal nation. Well, are we modern types so "sophisticated" that we don't understand the concept of blood debt?
• Kenya and Somalia The Kenyans have now openly stated they will take Kisaymo and stay there as long as is neccessary to extirpate Al Shabaab from the area.

0230 GMT October 21, 2011

• Gaddafi killed every hour brings a new story about how the former Libyan dictator died. Latest is Libya government chief saying he was captured alive (video shows he was) but then his followers tried to rescue him and he died by a bullet to his head.
• So let's cut the obfustication and say he was executed, for whatever reason. The question is, so what? Why is Amnesty calling for fair, impartial investigations? This kind of rot may play in New York and among Amnesty's funders - "Oh we are so fair we demand due process even for dictators", it does not play in Libya. Did the US do anyone a favor by giving Saddam "due process", let alone Saddam himself? Do Saddam supporters believe he got a fair trial? No. So for whose benefit was that sordid drama played out? America's, so that it could assure itself it was both humane and fair. You can say the US captured and held Saddam, so its okay for America to have played games.
• But the same does not apply in Gaddafi's case. Amnesty may raise the alarm: Victor's Justice. Honey, it is always Victor's Justice. A prime example is the execution by the US of Japanese officers responsible  for water boarding American prisoners. But when it suits/suited us, we water boarded Al Qaeda prisoners, including one reportedly well over one hundred times.
• Amnesty needs to understand the world does not become a better place in all cases when the US system of justice is applied. Gaddafi died on the battlefield, he died quickly. He was spared the suffering and humiliation of imprisonment and a "trial". if Amnesty wants to protest, let it protest that Gaddafi got away too easily.
• Don't expect peace in Libya As commentators have repeatedly said, Libya is less a nation than a grouping of 3-4 major tribes. No different from a lot of Africa, and an issue that lies at the heart of African violence. The process by which the tribes agree to a new government and abide by the rules will not be easy or quick. Gaddafi, like Saddam and Assad of Syria, did not have this problem. If you were from the wrong tribe and objected, you died. Expect a big mess as a new nation is built, and don't be surprised if people decide they can't live together and should have separate nations. Nothing wrong with that. America, pay heed, because your turn may be coming sooner than you think.
• India's amphibious division Reader Avik B sends a story saying India's 54th Infantry Division is being reorganized as an amphibious division. This ties in with the earlier news that India wants to increase the number of amphibious brigades, and also ties in with the already-underway expansion of Indian Navy amphibious capability. Aside from plans for for 4 LPDs at a cost of $800-million each (approval expected to be given shortly by Ministry of defense)  a contract was signed last month for 8 x 800-ton LCUs of Indian build. There are already 9 LST (including 3Medium) and 8 LCUs; we're wondering if the existing  LCUs 500-tons will be replaced when the new ones arrive.

0230 GMT October 20, 2011

• Somalia Kenyan troops in conjunction with the Somali government plan to drive on to the port of Kisamayo, which is the nerve center of Al Shabaab in southern Somalia. The Islamist group is no position to withstand the Kenyan assault, which is being conducted by well-trained troops with artillery support. accordingly the group is threatening terror strike against Kenya.
• The problem with Al Shabaab is that it has created great difficulties, instabilities, and uncertainties in all of Eastern Africa. Uganda and Burundi intervened under the aegis of the African Union, and after many years of undermanning/underfunding, the force became effective last year with reinforcements. Al Shabaab took a beating in Mogadishu and was forced to abandon the capital, leaving it to resort to terror attacks, which it has been doing. Kenya has opened up a new front and  is obviously looking to do serious damage to the group. This may be no more than a heavy punitive raid to retaliate against kidnappings of foreigners in Kenya. In which case Kenya will withdraw after getting to Kisamayo and bashing Al Shabaab there.
• Al Shabaab managed to fight off the Ethiopian intervention 2006-2009.
• The west, of course, has no intention of really getting involved despite the havoc Somali pirates are wrecking in the Western Indian Ocean. But unless some sort of resolution is brought about, Somalia will continue to fester and infect the entire region.
• Meanwhile, we have not mentioned the new Somali famine which is causing much suffering. The west has had it with coming to the aid of starving Somalis, particularly with Al Shabaab saying any aid given to areas under its control has to come through the group. The non-western countries, of course, care less by several orders of magnitude. The sum of all this is the attitude "its just another bunch of dysfunctional black Africans dying for one reason or another, lets mind our own affairs."
• In the intervention business, black Africans as victims rank dead last in the world. Five million of them died in the Congo war, the deadliest conflict since World War 2. The vast majority were civilians. Their bad luck, as far as the world is concerned.
• The US operation against the Haqqanis is called "Knife Edge". There are no details at all available except the idea is to push the Haqqanis into Afghanistan where they will be dealt with by the US. The media keeps saying "US and Afghan troops". The day we see an Afghan brigade in action, we'll believe it. We aren't holding our breath.
• We have no comment on this operation because we have no idea what's going on. even www.longwarjournal.org has nothing, and this blog has excellent contacts in the US military. So we are wondering if an operation is underway in the first place.
• The economy is worse than you and I think it is according to an economic journalist writing for Reuters. He has gone through the payroll figures released for 2010, and says that aside from everyone's income falling except the very rich, ten million Americans worked zero hours in 2010.
• http://blogs.reuters.com/david-cay-johnston/2011/10/19/first-look-at-us-pay-data-its-awful/
• Herman Cain's 9-9-9 Excerpts from a letter, name withheld by request. "You have misunderstood Herman Cain's proposal. First, revenue will not fall because tens of millions of Americans who currently pay no federal taxes will have to start paying. second, it is true - as alleged by the media - that the better off and rich will pay less by way of taxes. But have you asked yourself why rich people should pay a greater percentage of their income than poor people. There is nothing in the Constitution which says "Each according to his means". The US Constitution explicitly says all citizens are to be treated equally under the law. How is it just for half of US taxpayers to not just pay nothing by way of federal taxes, but to actually receive subsides paid for by the taxes of the better off. Income redistribution is socialist and/or communist. It is nothing in which a free country should engage.."
• We want to tell our letter writer that these days Editor does not do much thinking. His days and nights are occupied with making his mortgage. It is his sole asset and he doesn't want to lose it because he wants to leave something for his children. Coming home with $93/day after taxes for the 15-17 days a month one gets work does not cover the mortgage. There's a miserly Social security check - miserly because the Editor had to ask for it early, and a pension from Catholic Schools which is sort of interesting in an abstract way: it is too small to have any relation to reality. Every month Editor draws down on savings to make do.
• Okay, he realizes he is fortunate because he is still in his house, and he still has savings to make up the difference for a couple of years. There's a terrible lot of people who have neither house nor savings.
• Editor is going to leave the economic philosophy to others. Instead he is going to ask a question. Whatever the justice or injustice of taxing the rich more than others, if this economy does not improve - and there are no signs it will for several years - at some point people are going to desperate. Then they're going to get mad. Then they're going to kill the rich - and anyone else who gets in the way. You'll notice that when the killing starts, the innocent suffer more than the guilty. Whatever.
• How do the rich propose to protect themselves? Put the power of the state against the people? Haven't we understood by now that's a losing proposition?
• Now, Editor is not going to be leading a mob to the house of whoever are the rich people in Washington DC. Truthfully, if it gets really bad, Editor can see his house, give the money to his kids, and go back home. The social security and pension he gets is quite enough to live on comfortably. Of course, he will have 1.2-billion neighbors and probably go mad from the heat, dust, noise, and overcrowding, as happened during his 20 years as an adult in Mother India, but you can't have everything.
• Americans have nowhere to go. They'll have to fight.
• One hopes that people see sense, stop blathering ideology, left and right, and get the country moving again. But then one hopes one gets a date on Saturday night.
• (BTW, back home there is no shortage of dates on Saturday night, or any night, or any afternoon and morning.)
• Good luck America. Editor is off to bed: he has to wake early to go earn his $93 "teaching" kids the majority of whom don't want to be in school, don't want to learn (many can't learn for various reasons), and don't understand their parents are paying heavy local taxes for them to get an education. Free universal education is a noble ideal, but truthfully again, public education in America's big cities is proof of the proposition when people are not directly paying out of their pocket for a public service or good, they have little value for it and will waste it.
• If Editor's parents understood that even the poorest of them are paying thousands of dollars in state taxes, county taxes, sales taxes and so on for the schools, they would confiscate all their kids' gadgets, thrash them twice a day on principle, and cut their rations if they don't come home with a good grade.
• Like our hero Glen Beck, we're just saying.
• Today editor had a young lady who wouldn't put away her I-pod and I-phone till the Editor said he'd have to walk her over to the Principal's office. She put the stuff away with multiple appeals to God, as in "OMG! OMG! OMG! How can you do this to me!" (Nice to know one's students think one is God.) When Editor said how was she going to pass the class, she said: "I don't care if I pass this class! I don't care if I fail!" Then Editor had to tell her that if she didn't pass, since math is required to graduate, her parents would have to pay several hundred dollars for summer school. "I don't care! I don't care! " Then Editor said: "Lets use the teacher's phone to call your parents, who like most immigrants are working their butts off to buy you nice things, and you can tell them you don't care if they have to pay for summer school."
• Well, she still didn't start studying, but she did put her head down and stop going "OMG! I don't care!"
• Half the students do try. Half of them succeed.  Half don't try. They leave school with no skills. The reason teachers teach on is because of the ones who do care and do try. Editor is getting tears in his eyes contemplate how noble he is.
• But you wanna know the truth? If someone would give the Editor a real job, he'd jettison teaching in two eyeblinks. Then he'd be shouting in the classroom: "OMG! OMG! I don't care is you pass or fail!" There's a reason 50% of teachers drop out within 5 -years, and a reason the rate in inner-city school goes to 100%.

0230 GMT October 19, 2011

• France, Germany agree on $2.7-trillion fund to meet the European debt crisis. 60-70 banks judged to have dangerous exposure to weak loans will have to up their capital:loan ratio to 9% as part of a separate deal. Whereas the IMF estimated this might require government help of $270-billion, because the banks will find it difficult raise additional capital in these turbulent times, the cost may come out at half that. Though in this business its best to assume the worst because invariably it turns out that someone has been fibbing about how strong they are or how much exposure they have to bad loans.
• Not being overly cognizant of Euro-finance, we can't say if $2.7-trillion suffices to take care of all the countries that are going to need help.
• Mr. Herman Cain and dialing 9-9-9 That's Mr. Cain's tax plan, and it also happens to be the British emergency number. Neither is there any danger that Mr. Cain will get elected, nor is there any chance that if by some cosmic fluke he is elected will he stick by this plan. But should even that happen, then the taxpayer will be dialing 999, but no help will come.
• People who love to hate the federal government act as if the sole blood-sucking ghoul on the planet. But in reality, taxpayers have to ante up money to states too, and it's not just taxes, there's fees galore. Now, if the feds go 9-9-9, the money that goes from the feds to the states will stop. Further, stuff the feds do for the states will stop. So the states will have to raise taxes.
• Some of our readers may be tempted to answer: "No they won't, because spending will be cut." Hmmmm. That's an interesting thesis/ But it won't happen.
• The reason for that is that the government, believe it or not, is not an alien entity that has taken over America. The reason the government is so big (or not big enough, depending on your point of view) is that the people demand services.
• Now while some of our readers are prepared to forgo a great deal by way of government services, its a fair bet that the big majority are not. The American people have been indulging in a nice LSD fantasy, that we can continue getting the current level of services while paying less. When we the citizens start tripping, no use to blame unscrupulous peddlers of LSD - our presidential candidates and politicians among them - from stepping with with more of the Good Stuff.
• Lets take some examples. Aircraft crash because of an antiquated air traffic control system. A child is abducted across state lines and the FBI lacks the resources to coordinate a search to find her. A hurricane devastates part of the coast and there is no money to help people rebuild. There is a disease for which it is uneconomical for the private sector to manufacture a cure, so your little brother dies. Regulation has to be cut back, and the bank takes your money and gambles it on Mongolian Goat Bonds and you have no recourse. The George Washington Bridge is about to collapse, New York tells New Jersey: We need $2-billion to replace it, your share is half. New Jersey fuggabhatit. The Chinese take ascendency in a hundred key technologies because they subsidize their industries, Americans have to buy the technology from China at the beggers-cant-be-choosers price. We could go on, but its unnecessary.
• So one way or the other, people will keep demanding the government do things for them, and if the feds don't do these things, the states will have to. Why? Because people will vote for these measures - they already have, its not like the government just decided to steal your money.
• So Mr. Herman Cain's 9-9-9 will simply turn out to be another Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds.
• Mongolian Goat Bonds Actually, given the current state of global finance, your money probably is safer in Mongolian Goat Bonds than other investments.

0230 GMT October 18, 2011

• India to station cruise missiles along China border Reader Avik B. writes to tell us that the Government of India has cleared the next Army cruise missile regiment to go to the North East India border with China. The missiles are the joint Indo-Russian Brahmos, 290-km range triple launchers. we think a regiment has three batteries each with four launchers.The range is for Russia to comply with international agreements on transfer of missile technology, which establishes the cut-off range as 300-km.
• This is an interesting development because it sends a message to China: you station missiles in Tibet, we'll station missiles on your borders. This is a change from the "don't aggravate the Chinese at all costs" school of Indian appeasement, which has been the vogue for fifty years.
• Also of significance is that India is to up its Army presence in the Andaman Islands. Currently there is an independent mountain brigade in the islands. We're unclear if India is to raise one or two more brigades. An infantry battalion is is to be stationed on an outlying island. The plans for increasing India's naval and sea presence in the Indian Ocean were laid down years ago, and continue a pace.
• http://www.indianexpress.com/news/china-flexing-muscles-govt-clears-brahmos-for-arunachal/860799/1
• A second article talks about a change in Indian strategy to ensure that the next war is fought on enemy soil. We can argue if this is simply part of Cold Start, which is an offensive strategy, or something new. Personally the Editor tends to disregard statements on strategy because everything depends on the particular circumstances of how the war starts and on the enemy's plans. Since Pakistan strategy also calls for taking the war to India ASAP, we have to see who gets to implement their strategy first.
• As many, many readers point out in response to the article, words are great, but we still have to see proof that India's leaders have the courage to go on the offensive. In 1999 (Kargil) and 2002 (response to Pakistan's December 2001 attack on the Indian Parliament) the government did not have the courage to react offensively, not least because it was kowtowing to Sam The Man. Sam is always concerned his protégée Pakistan not get whacked - 1947-48 (as junior partner to the Brits); 1965; 1971, several alarms in the 1980s and 1990s when it looked like India was going to attack terrorist training camps in Pakistan, Kargil, 2002 etc etc). Of course, Sam does not care what humiliation the Indians have to undergo, as long as the Indians show suitable "restraint". Suitable is defined by Washington. The Indians are yet to demonstrate they understand that Sam is not going to guarantee their interests against Pakistan , its up to the Indians to do their own guaranteeing.
• http://www.hindustantimes.com/Deadlier-war-doctrine/H1-Article1-758114.aspx
• US pullout from Eastern Afghanistan leaves Pakistan vulnerable says UK Guardian http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/17/us-troop-withdrawal-pakistan-vulnerable Principally, the mullah who led the Taliban take over of Dir and Swat fled to Afghanistan when the Pakistan Army moved against him three years ago, Now he is mounting raids with a view to making a comeback. This gentleman is part of the anti-Pakistan Taliban, a coalition of groups that believes the Pakistan government is as heretical as the Americans and must be overthrown by force. So Pakistan has been demanding the US/Afghans hand over the mullah.
• The poor, poor, Pakistanis. We feel so bad for them. Not. Now they're getting a taste of their own medicine and they don't like it a bit.
• A little bird tells us the situation is actually a bit more complex. (BTW, why is always a little bird that whispers these things in one's ear? Why can't it be a big bird? Ah, the imponderable mysteries of life.
• Back to the little bird. It tells us that actually the mullah is not doing any mentionable damage to Pakistan. The Pakistanis are using this as an excuse not to hand over the Haqqanis. The idea is: you tell us we have to hand over our allies to you, what about handing over your ally to us?
• At which point readers may be forgiven for asking: "Wait a minute, the Swat Mullah is a US ally?"
• Well, of course he isn't. This is just the usual Pakistani conspiracy theory, that the US is plotting to destabilize Pakistan.
• The Pakistanis are perfectly correct when they accuse the Indians of helping the anti-Pakistan Taliban. This has been going on for some years now. The Indians, of course, deny this, but they have been aiding Sind separatists for decades, are back in Balochistan after an interval, and yes, have been aiding the anti-Pakistan Taliban. Your enemy's enemy, that sort of thing. Its a tactical move to complicate Pakistan's life, in retaliation for Pakistan attacks against Kashmir.
• At this point, of course, the US can counter Pakistan's demands by saying (a) tell us where the Swat mullah is and we'll get him for you; or (b) we only have 3500 troops in all of eastern Pakistan, a single brigade, and we don't have the ability to defeat hi,. The US could add that, after all, the Pakistan Army has the equivalent of six divisions in its north-west and habitually claims it lacks force to counter insurgents attacking Afghanistan, so how can a single brigade stop the Swat mullah.
• Its just one-upmanship, but sometimes you have to play that game, immature as it may be.

0230 GMT October 17, 2011

• Libya Sirte lull, Government forces resume offensive in Bani Walid.
• Senator McCain's Africa warning We are great admirers of Senator McCain. But after he warned President Obama of getting mired down in Africa, we're wondering if the Old Boy needs a short break. The good senator has had no problem with our being mired down in Afghanistan. Moreover, all the US is doing is sending 100 advisors to aid in the fight to destroy the Lord's Resistance Army, whose human rights violation boggle the mind. Doubtless part of the mission - if not actually the whole mission - is to locate the LRA commander, a psychotic by the name of Kony, for a visit by a UAV or two. May we ask why its okay to go on fighting in Afghanistan and not pay some attention to Africa?
• Now, Senator McCain has a legitimate  complaint that the President did not consult with Congress before taking this step. Reuters quotes him as saying: "I've been under four presidents, and this is the least communicative with Congress of any administration that I've ever seen," he said. "Maybe it has something to do with the polarization of politics, but it is unfortunate."  Well, by now we know the Great Communicator our prez is not. This is what you get when you elect a junior policy wonk as prez instead of a seasoned politician.  Of course, the adult in the room in 2008 was Senator McCain. But he was far too radical for his party. Just our thought.
• Will GOP presidential win in 2012 end gridlock? No says one observer. The GOP would have to add 13 seats to its Senate total to prevent filibusters. Just as the GOP has happily used or threatened to use this tactic during the Obama presidency, the Democrats will also use it. Thirteen seats seems a very far reach.
• So either way, we may well have another four years of a Do Nothing Congress. America, thank you and have a nice next five years.
• Can software types every get it right? We're beginning to doubt it. Editor's $400 E-Machine desk top had 768MB of RAM, and as time went by, it just became slower and slower. He asked Help Desk at University College, University of Maryland, where Editor does his courses, for help. A nice tech took a remote look, made some suggestions, and said more memory was required. So Editor hied over to Office Depot, paid $135 for 2GB of RAM including installation (he could have done the job himself for $70, but when you have papers and exams due you don't want to take a chance of mucking up something.)
• So for a couple of weeks the computer was quite zipping. Then..it...began....slowing.....down......again. So Editor went to Task Manager, and lo, the programs were running amok. When Editor had 768-MB, Firefox used to take up ~75MB. Now with the additional memory, the same Firefox is taking up 3-500MB+ - and running slower. Same with McAfee - more space, slower service. Then Yahoo decided it wanted to hijack the Google default search page, just for the heck of it. Yahoo has never done that, why start now? And who in their right mind will give up using Google for Yahoo anyway?
• Then Hotmail decided it didn't want to attach documents in emails. so now when attaching documents, Editor has to use Internet Explorer. Why not Chrome? Because Chrome decided it wanted to artistically display its screen to the right and down. So the Close and Minimize buttons were out of sight, You can do an F11 for a full screen. Then you don't have a tool bar. when you're going through hundreds of web pages a day, this is a major hassle. Then Google Translate Taskbar says it can't work with Firefox 5, only with earlier versions. So to translate, you know have to cut and paste into Google Translate, then go back and repeat the procedure every web page you are looking at. That cuts productivity by half. And then G-Mail says its functionality is reduced when working with IE 7, so upgrade. So IE 8 crashes the computer. As for IE 9, cant work with Windows XP, need something later.
• Here's a suggestion for the software companies. Take a fully loaded .45 revolver. Put it to your temple. Play Russian Roulette. And have a nice day.

0230 GMT October 16, 2011

• Iraq: Game Over One hundred and sixty US troops will remain. To guard the US Embassy. The Iraqis have said "Thanks, but no thanks" to our offer to keep 30,000 troops there indefinitely.
•  And you know what? They've just done us the biggest favor.
• Re. our wondering how 40,000 troops can make it out of Iraq by December 31. Five hundred and fifty troops a day are leaving. Mission accomplished.
• And Iraq is taking Syria's side in the troubles there. Baghdad doesn't want an unstable neighborhood. Sound familiar? We let Saddam be for years and years because we didn't want an unstable neighborhood either.
• Before anyone gnashes their teeth at Iraq's behavior: we said we wanted Iraq to be free. Free means free. We have to take the good with the bad.
• Afghanistan Reader Luxembourg sent a link to a Michael Yon blog story about how a soldier who stepped on a mine during an air assault died because of bureaucratic rules about who gets to send what helicopter for medevac. Though helicopters were available 20-minutes flight away, it took so long for a helicopter to be dispatched that the soldier did not make it.
• http://www.michaelyon-online.com/red-air-americas-medevac-failure.htm
• The problem, as Yon explained, is that Army medevac helicopters are unarmed as required by the rules of war - they are painted with red crosses. So they require escorts. Since no Apache was available, the Army medevac helicopters could not fly. Air Force pararescue helicopters were available, armed, and no red crosses. But due to rules, Air Force helicopters cannot come into Army air space unless the weather is so bad Army cannot fly.
• As you might expect, the blog post attracted a torrent of letters - 170+ in 72-hours.As a Vietnam veteran reminded people - in Vietnam "dustoff" elicopters were on two-minute standby. They were supposed to be escorted by attack helicopters. But regardless of if escort was available, helicopters were expected to have skids up in two minutes, and they routinely did.
• The above story makes it clear, once again, that as we have been saying, US is so concerned to minimize casualties that force protection, not combat is the priority.
• Our take on this story is a bit different. The target was a village 40-km from Bagram. We did not see any recognition in any of the scores of letters we scrolled through that here is the US, ten years on, and it has to assault a village that is 40-kilometers from Kabul and NATO/US's main air base? The enemy appears well dug in, and presumably have been around for a while.
• Well, we can't remember how far Bien Hoa was from Saigon, but we seem to think it was around the same distance. If after 10 years of war Bien Hoa was not safe as houses, heads would have rolled. In Afghanistan, on the other hand, no one in America - government, media, intellectuals, public, whatever - seems to think it the least strange.
• Now look, people, we are quite aware of why 40-km from Bagram you have a well-dug in enemy. Afghanistan has four times the area of South Vietnam. US forces in RVN peaked at 550,000, and the South Vietnamese themselves had at least as many troops, to say nothing of local defense and so on. Fair enough.
• But in case anyone has forgotten, in Vietnam the US faced at peak 300,000 VC/PAVN. Not only were these gentlemen armed to the teeth with everything including artillery and armor, they were probably the best infantry the world has seen in the modern history with possibly the exception of the German infantry. Afghanistan is transparent to US reconnaissance, South Vietnam was opaque. And the Taliban number at best 30,000, of whom most are simply chilling, coming to fight when they feel like it. As for competence, the Taliban are a standing joke.
• Yes, in Vietnam you could send in the B-52s, and the effect of a 3-cell B-52 strike was equivalent to 3 or more lower-yield tactical nuclear weapons. You can't B-52 Afghanistan. But given US can put bombs within 10-meters of aim point any time of the night or day, you don't need to carpet bomb anyone.
• Our point here is: Washington can say what it likes, this is not a war we are winning. For people to say "oh, we're being forced to pull out too early" is tommy-rot. How much time do you want? Twenty years? Fifty years? A hundred years. In ten years we haven't been able to train up more than a single Afghan army battalion for independent operations. What does this indicate? That we need more time? No, it indicates we have as massively failed at training as we have at fighting the Taliban. And please lets not go on about Pakistan as a sanctuary. The Vietnam problem was far, far worse. Entire PAVN divisions and corps used to flit back and forth as they pleased, ditto Viet Cong battalions and regiments.
• When you have failed, and failed, and failed, do you, the US military, State, intelligence, government, so on and so forth, have any right to ask for more time? We don't think so, particularly when you have shown you have no ideas how to change the situation.
• Moreover, if the Afghans don't think its worth dying for their country, why on earth is the government/military telling us its okay for Americans to die for Afghanistan?
• But back to the Yon story. Some letter writers were angry that the US doesn't have enough helicopters in Afghanistan. Okay, but when Apaches cost $20-million each, forty times what a HueyCobra cost, and US GDP has increased by five times in the intervening decades (inflation adjusted dollars), how precisely are we going to get more Apaches? And let Editor whisper something in your ear: Surprise! There were never enough helicopters in Vietnam either.
• As for the bureaucracy part, well, sorry about that but Editor is not outraged. For one thing, you want bureaucracy that costs the lives of troops, hie over to India. For another, where you have organizations you have bureaucracy. As much in the private sector as in the public. here you all are arguing that a medevac helicopter reached too late. In India, in 99% of cases when a soldier is wounded or injured, no medevac helicopter reaches - ever. For an army of 1.3-million, half of which is deployed in truly horrible terrain, there are less than 550 helicopters, army and air force combined. 

0230 GMT October 15, 2011

• Government fighters shooting each other in Sirte says UK Guardian. This is not new news, but the newspaper gives some details that might not be widely known. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/14/sirte-fighters-shoot-own-side
• One problem, as expected, is that inexperienced government fighters are not properly aiming weapons such as mortars. Another problem is "weekend fighters" who advance behind other fighters and fire from the back. Guardian also mentions what we have been saying: the government fighters don't want to go in and clear out loyalists snipers, so they are simply blasting away with tanks, artillery, and rockets. if they can't get their mortar fire on target one wonders how much of the heavy weapon fire is landing on target.
• Russia to scrap remaining Typhoon SSBNs says Defensenews.com. Three boats remain; three have already been scrapped, and one was never completed.
• What caught our eye is an estimate that the submerged displacement of these boats could be as high as 34,000-tons. An Ohio displaces under 19,000-tons, and normally the figure given for the Typhoons is 26,000-tons. An interesting aspect of the Ohio class is that their 45-MW nuclear reactor delivers 60,000-shaft-horse-power, but the Typhoon's 190-MW x 2 reactors deliver only 50,000-shp each.
• Ultimately its the payload that matters. The Ohios can deliver 240 warheads (10 x 24 missiles); the Typhoons 200 (10 x 20 missiles). The advantage of the Typhoon is that it has several hulls and you would have to seriously whack one to put it down for good.
• Good enough for US Ivy League, can't get into Delhi University So New York Times has a story about an Indian girl with 93.6% marks who was rejected by Delhi University for not making the grade. She was accepted by Cornell, Bryn Mawr, Duke, Wesleyan, Barnard and the University of Virginia. Lest you are tempted to think: oh well, the US colleges are happy to take students willing to pay, Dartmouth offered this girl $20,000/year and Smith $15,000/year. She chose Dartmouth.
• The cut off point for economics at St. Stephens College, a prestigious Delhi University institution, is 95.5%. For the Indian institutes of Technology, 500,000 apply - after investing two years in prep classes. Ten thousand are accepted.
• http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/14/world/asia/squeezed-out-in-india-students-turn-to-united-states.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&ref=global-home
• In India, by the way, no college is interested that you captained three different sports teams, play two musical instruments at virtuoso level, and volunteer at the local charity plus have had your first novel published and have patented green toilets. All that matters is your grades. and not just only your grades, but your grades on the combined 12th Grade exams. It's your one and only chance.
• Often when Editor is substituting at school, a story he read many, many years ago comes to mind. This was about a group of American high school students who went to France. Very proudly one of the students told the journalist: the French students work too hard. We taught them to have fun.
• Right. American students, even at the very best schools, believe school and college are times to have fun. Some will tell you: "we play hard, but we work hard."
• I tell them: "Unless you have figured out how to live in two different universes at the same time, every minute of playing hard you indulge in means a minute less to work hard. None of you would last a a month in an Indian school, or a Chinese, or a Japanese, or a South Korean school."
• They say nothing, because on one level, they do realize the truth of what Editor is telling them.
• Now, it's true that Indian schools don't teach students to do a lot of reasoning. Its mainly memorization and working problems. But conversely, American students are weak on facts, so what are they going to reason with.
• And when those same Indian fact-absorbing students come to the US, where the emphasis is on reasoning, once they learn the American way, they have an advantage American students can't match.

0230 GMT October 14, 2011

• Israel and the 1000-to-1 exchange Let us first state clearly it is none of our business if Israel decides to exchange one thousand Palestinian prisoners including many accused or convicted of terrorists act for one soldier. If the Israelis feel its a fair deal, that's fine. But we don't think it is a good idea. The deal shows Israel's enemies that it can be majorly blackmailed.
• Moreover, Israel, like the US, puts so high a premium on its soldiers that essentially neither army really fights. The primary focus is on force protection, on taking no risks that will lead to casualties or troops becoming prisoners. Fighting has become secondary.
• You can say "Editor, it isn't your son that's at stake." True. Which is why if any of Editor's children had become soldiers, his advice would have been: "never be taken prisoner". The great British military historian John Keegan once estimated in World War 2 those who surrendered had a 50-50 chance of being taken alive. In Vietnam, it was a terribly bad idea for an American to be taken alive. There's no figures, but few who surrendered or were captured survived. And the same is probably true of Iraq and Afghanistan.
• Just our thoughts.
• Sirte, Libya Please be prepared to yawn: Sirte has not fallen. So far every time the government forces close in on the last remaining loyalist positions, loyalist sniper and grenadiers force the government forces back. Government has been banging away with scores of guns and tanks (if not the low hundreds) and getting nowhere. Remember, as we've said, in urban warfare all this heavy firepower simply creates good cover for the defenders.
• But then how did the US Marines in Fallujah do it? Simple. They first gave people a month to leave, and then they blew up every single house, building, motor vehicle, or whatever using a combination of direct assault and firepower. In warfare its called the problem of the last 100-meters - though in urban warfare its probably more like the last 25-meters. That's when you, the attacker, has to leave cover, expose himself, dash for the target, and hope you make it before you're shot. If you want results, you can't avoid a direct assault. Government forces don't want to that. And hey, we're not blaming them, no one wants to die, but this sort of thing is what separates the pros from the amateurs. Like it or not, the loyalists left are pros, and the government forces are amateurs.
• Former IMF Chief cannot be tried on French attempted sexual assault charge because of French statute of limitations. If you recall, after he was accused in New York, the journalist daughter of a friend of his came forward to say the gentleman some years back had attempted to assault her but she fought him off. She says her mother said not to make an issue of it as she, the daughter, would become the story.
• Nonetheless, the young lady involved has said she will pursue a civil suit, as is her right. The New York accuser is also pursuing a civil suit.

0230 GMT October 13, 2011

• Iranian alleged assassination plot Reader Rahul Luhar wonders about the alleged Iranian plot to kill the Saudi ambassador to the US by blowing up a Washington restaurant the ambassador frequents.  He writes: "The Quds Force  is known for its professionalism and ruthlessness and this rather ham-handed attempt smacks of amateurishness." The UK Observer quotes the oft-quoted ex-CIA officer, Robert Baer, to say the alleged plot stinks because the QF is efficient http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/11/alleged-iran-plot-middle-east-war The Observer does not take a position on this being a set up, instead it notes this could be a rogue operation.
• Well, if we were all as efficient as our reputations, no one would make mistakes. If you want examples of Amateur Hour, none is better than the childish US CIA efforts to kill Castro. Contrary to what conclusions people may have drawn from those efforts of a past era, the CIA is every bit as ruthlessly professional as the Iranian QF. We will say no more than say if you doubt us, ask the QF people in Iran.
• Another example is the Mossad 2010 killing of the Hamas arms buyer in Dubai. Makes the CIA in the Castro days look positively professional.
• We are happy at any opportunity to trash the Iranians, but there is a problem with this plot. And that is that two US drug Enforcement Agency confidential informers are at the center of affairs. Now, informers or undercover DEA agents are not supposed to initiate deals. You can't make friends with a target and then say "What ho, lets do a deal". That's entrapment. The informer/undercover agent have to wait till the target says "What ho, lets do a deal." But that's the rules. Unless the accused can prove he was entrapped - something very difficult - the court will not make that assumption. And after all, even if you are entrapped, you are free to say, "What ho, lets NOT do a deal" and make tracks.
• That a QF operator would look to a hired gun to do the job is understandable. QF operators may now their backyard intimately, but the US is a foreign country. That they would also look for a drug-gang killer is also understandable, given the ruthlessness of the breed.
• Nonetheless, it is possible that that the QF operator was set up. Our point is, so what? It takes two to tango, and it doesn't matter who takes the lead in asking for a dance.
• As for the unfortunate gentleman in US custody, he will be tried by a terror court and no one will be overly concerned if he was entrapped - assuming he can prove it, which we've said is unlikely.
• Now look for QF to kidnap a valuable American to use as a hostage in getting their man freed. Assuming QF sanctioned the operation. If the man is a rogue, then we hopes he enjoys living alone in 8 x 10 foot underground cells for extended periods of time - lets just say a few decades. If he behaves, he will get his few minutes of exercise, but no one says that has to be in the open air. On days he doesn't behave, he wont get even that. As for the rest of what happens in a US SuperMax,  best not to ask. Better to obey the law, however irksome.
• For another skeptical view, read http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/12/us-usa-security-iran-plot-idUSTRE79B50420111012
• Iraq takes control of its airspace as of October 1, 2011, according to defensenews.com . Almost 42,000 US troops still remain in Iraq, despite the Iraqi requirement almost all leave by year end. We are unclear on how so large a number of troops is going to be withdrawn in the remaining part of the year.
• US town testing crime prediction software In Philip K. Dick's Minority Report (2002 movie with Tom Cruise) the police have the ability to predict who will commit a crime - before the future perp even thinks of it. Well, in Santa Cruz, California the police are testing mathematical software that predicts where crimes will take place, allowing police to step up patrols in anticipation of trouble. You can read about it at http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21128333.400-cops-on-the-trail-of-crimes-that-havent-happened.html Then scratch your head and wonder what comes next.

0230 GMT October 12, 2011

• Mr. Romney and the new American Century Sensible American politicians appear to believe if they tell the truth they will lose elections. This raises a question. Doesn't that imply that only liars will offer themselves for elections? If so, why elect liars?
• Lately we have the phenomenon of Mr. Romney offering his vision of a new American century. Lets do some elementary math. A country's power depends largely on its GDP. We can argue about percentages, but for any country to have its century that country probably needs around 35-40% of global GDP. The US is down to 20%.
• We are not prone to make rosy assumptions about China imminently overtaking the US in total GDP. an extreme version of this school of thought has China doubling its current GDP in six years, and then doubling again in about seven or 8, over taking the US by around 2025. It's going to take longer than that. But it is going to happen, because China has four times as many people as the US. Then there's India, plodding along at 7-8% annual growth. Doubling every 9 years or so, India will reach current US levels by 2035 and likely overtake the US by 2050. These are just back-of-the-envelope calculations, but they suffice.
• It's possible that by 2050 is down to 10% of world GDP because, after all, the US has only 5% of the world's people and other places like South America and Africa have no place to go but up.  
• It's worth recalling how the US, with a tint fraction of the world's population, managed to reach 40-45% of world GDP in the late 1940s. First, the other five major industrial powers - UK, France, Germany, Japan, and the USSR - were flattened. Second, the US was - and still is - richly endowed with natural resources. Third, Americans were at the forefront in technology. Fourth, capitalism combined with natural resources and technology gave the US enormous financial resources. You can add to this list.
• Thanks to globalization, natural resources can be obtained anywhere by any country. Europe has as much capital as the US, and China is coming up fast. Technology has gone global: if you don't invent it yourself, you can buy it from other countries. Forget that the US can't compete in labor/productivity costs with China, it can't compete with Germany and Japan, who have higher wage structures than we do. In fact, the US is in danger of becoming the next great low-cost wage structure country, which will certainly help us to rise again, but even when we do, we will have just a small fraction of world GDP. We have lost our will to explore new frontiers. In another couple of decades a third of our GDP will go for health care. Lets not talk about our sinking infrastructure. We refuse to pay more taxes and have firmly convinced ourselves that individual greed is good and the common good can go where it wants to.
• So, will Mr. Romney please tell us how he proposes a new American century will come about?
• You can, of course, argue that Americans are so much in decline they cannot face the truth. So we had Mr. Bush who promised us - wait, what did he promise us, can anyone pin it down? Then we have Mr. Obama, who promised us an unemployment rate of 5% by 2013 and health care for everyone that would cost no more than health care for the 80% who had it. He promised us an end to the soft police state that America has become in the age of the Global War On Terror. It was a wonderful vision. Too bad it was all lies. Now we have a whole raft of GOP candidates, of whom Mr. Romney is front runner, and has a reasonable chance of winning, and what is he promising us? A new American century.
• It's beautiful, man, just beautiful. And Mitt, pass us that joint, will'ya?

0230 GMT October 11, 2011

We did not update October 8, 9, and 10 as the server was down. Our service provider generously charges us very little, though we are serious bandwidth and disk space hogs because of the rest of the site (which we have not been maintaining but all the material posted is still available. So when something goes wrong we don't get much priority from the service provider, understandably.

• Europeans agree on strengthening bank capitalization As far as we are concerned, the way is now clear for a Greek default. Its true the Germans and French keep swearing they will not let a Greek default happen, but the reality is Greece can never pay back the money it has borrowed. end of story. The rest is just verbiage for political and financial reasons.
•  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15250880
• The Belgian Bank Dexia As part of the strengthening of European banks, France and Belgium have nationalized Dexia, Belgium's largest bank in which the French have a substantial share.
• Now get this, people. Belgium GDP is $465-billion (2011). Dexia's debts are $700-billion. Okay, this may be be the largest Belgian bank, but it is just one of many. And it has managed to lend out a sum of money that exceeds the country's GDP by over 40%? Doubtless banker types will have a sophisticated explanation for why its okay for a bank to lend out more money than its home country's entire GDP. And these sophisticated fools that have brought down the world.
• We recall at the height of the 2008 crisis being told that no one really knew what the value of derivatives was, but it could be as much as $55-trillion. So we went "but - but - but that's almost as much as the entire planet's GDP, how can anyone lend that sum of money and what has it been used for? Where are the pipelines, the factories, the bridges, the ships, the airlines worth that sum of money?"
• Our question was followed by a lengthy pause before the person said: "Ravi, you obviously don't understand international finance." We said "you're right. Can you explain it to us, simply as to a little child?"
• We're still waiting.
• US UAVs attacked by computer virus says reader Luxembourg, forwarding an article from Wired http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/10/virus-hits-drone-fleet/ The virus is a keystroke logger. While it has not affected operations and as far as is known no information is being transmitted, the virus has proved resistant to removal so far.
• More on Steve Jobs In a sickening pander, Business week devoted all 68 pages of its October 10 issue to Steve Jobs. When we say all pages, we mean all pages because there is not a single ad in the issue. Of course, the whole thing is an ad for Steve Jobs and Apple.
• We are quite taken aback, because Business Week is not, as you would imagine, a purchased shill of the corporate world. Its quite an independent magazine and takes some pretty radical positions at times. recently it ran a big article pointing out that while Marx was ultimately wrong about capitalism, a lot of what he said about the ills of capitalism has been proved to be correct in the current global crisis.
• Anyway. Elsewhere we read that of the $1.35-trillion in profits American companies are holding overseas to shield the money from US taxes, Pfizer is the biggest offender with $41-billion followed by Apple with $40-billion. As someone has said, the money didn't get overseas by accident: these companies have deliberately created elaborate tax dodges. Google is another major offender, by the way.
• Re. the pleas of these companies that they be allowed to repatriate the money under a tax holiday and they will use it to create jobs: don't get taken in for a second. There was a tax holiday in 2004, and the money was NOT used to create jobs.
• The problem is not there is no money to invest. American companies are sitting on over $1-trillion of capital at home. But there is no demand, so how can these companies create jobs?
• They are not in the business of bailing out the economy - that's what the government is there for apparently, though on this we side with our Libertarian friends and say it is not the government's job to use taxpayer money to save big corporations. It's different if there is a massive disaster that no one could foretell. But the crisis we are in is caused by the reckless speculating by the financial sector.
• When the government takes the burden of private companies' moral hazard, this is not capitalism. This is a variant of fascism where the government and private enterprise work together to control the people for the benefit of the government and the capitalists. Classical fascism requires the active participation of the church and the media in this scheme. The church is no longer important as a political force because it has been replaced by the Great God of Consumerism at whose church we all worship not just on Sunday but on every day of the week. As for the media, sure there is the internet and so on, but 95% of the media that people access every day is controlled by the corporates.
• It is useless to imagine the companies will invest to create jobs when there's no one to buy their products. It is time that we dispensed with the fantasies of both left and right.