0230 GMT February 24, 2008

• Al-Sadr Extends Truce Another 6-Months gladdening the hearts of the US and Iraq governments while causing grief to some followers who want to get on with the fight against Sunnis and Americans. Al-Sadr is said to have used the first 6-months of the truce to purge his Mahadi Army of out-of-control elements that were threatening his authority. He explained to his followers while extending the truce that he did not want to give the Americans a pretext to attack his army.

• Now, when we must have said a jillion times the US must put military operations second to political accommodations, why are we unhappy when the US is indeed doing just that re. Sadr?

• Only because we don't trust this man. To imagine he has suddenly become a defender of Sunnis and a reliable partner of America in curbing sectarian violence is to mislead ourselves. He still wants to take over Iraq, for the first time combining secular and religious power in one person, himself.

• We believe that when five extra brigades went to Iraq, he realized the game was up in his stronghold, Sadr City in Baghdad and that the US was getting ready to destroy him. His retreat is only temporary. Moreover, we believe Iran persuaded him to stand down on the concept that the best way to get America out of Iraq soonest is to avoid aggravating them.

• Perhaps we are wrong and perhaps the optimists are right that he has changed his spots and decided to abandon violence in favor of electoral politics. We'd like to see some evidence, though. Agreeing not to attack US troops for another six months is no evidence of anything except that he is waiting for the US to draw down its forces. When he realizes the US plans to keep 15 brigades in Iraq through 2008, he might change his mind. So let us see what happens.

• Zimbabwe's January Inflation Hits 100,000% an increase from December's 67,000% says BBC. 80% of the country lives in poverty and 3-million citizens have fled to neighboring countries.

• Meanwhile, President Mugabe is thriving. Due to the failure of the opposition to stay united, he is likely to win a sixth term as president. In any case, since the polls will be rigged it doesn't matter if the opposition is united.

• B-2 Crashes at Guam This is first ever reported crash for the stealth bomber. Assuming one plane is kept for testing, this one loss means 5% of the US's stealth bomber capability is now kaput.

• 280-MW Solar Power Project For Arizona A Spanish company is teaming up a local partner for this plant. Three points of interest.

• First, this is not a photo-voltaic installation. The sun's heat is focused by mirrors and put to heating a fluid which is then used in generators. The fluid stays hot long enough that the plant works also at night.

• Second, at $3500-per-installed kilowatt excluding government subsidies, and with no raw material to be paid for, the plant is near competitive with coal plants. These cost around $1200/kilowatt, but you require 3-million tons of coal a year for the plant (lower end estimate) and that's $150-million right there at the current price of ~$50/ton for coal. But without doubt a carbon tax is on the way; US banks are factoring a price of $20-40/ton of carbon-dioxide into their estimates for the viability of new coal plants. One ton of coal produces 3-tons of CO2 [http://cbll.net/articles/coal-question] so even if you sequester two-thirds of the CO2 - and we don't know how much that increases capital costs - at a mid-range we could be paying $80/ton for coal. That means in just 8 years  the solar plant's capital cost of 3X coal plant is paid for. We are not counting interest, this is  back of the envelope calculation.

• Third, very roughly, the Spanish technology requires one square mile of land per 100-MW. If you wanted to phase out all fossil fuels for power generation in the US, ~800-Gigawatts [http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/epat2p2.html]  you'd need to put ~8,000-square-miles under solar plants. Arizona and New Mexico combined have about 240,000-square-milesof land, so this is doable.

• The problem is with the US insistence on lavish energy usage - 1 Terawatt of generating capacity for 300-million people - as well as the NIMBY syndrome as well as the insistence on protecting the smallest animal species, 8000-square-miles of land is going to be a problem.

• Americans don't get upset about the 5,000-square-miles a year lost to population growth: adding one person requires one acre of land, US population grows at 1.1% a year or ~3-million at this time http://dieoff.org/page40.htm but you can imagine the screaming if people in Arizona/New Mexico are told 8000-square-miles land is required. You will be impacting a lot of communities.

0230 February 23, 2008

• Ralph Nader Considering 3rd Presidential Run says the Associated Press. If so, this will be good news for the GOP. In 2000, Mr. Al Gore lost Florida by 543 votes, and thus the electoral college, throwing the election to Mr. George Bush. 97,000 people on Florida voted for Ralph Nader's Green Party, though he had less chance of winning than the proverbial snowball in the Downstairs place. If 2008 is a close election, Mr. Nader may again play spoiler.

• In fairness to Mr. Nader, some argue that it was not his fault Al Gore lost. Aside from the usual problems with the election - no process that large can be run with 100% accuracy and fairness, particularly as US counties and states determine some of the voting rules - some people point to the 12,000 Democrats who voted Republican in Florida, and note that each of the seven other third-parties on the ballot polled more than 543 votes. Thus, it is argued, any of the other third-parties can be blamed.

• Unfortunately, this is a leaky argument. It's likely many Republicans voted for Mr. Gore, so we could equally say they seriously damaged Mr. Bush by leaving him so thin a winning margin that no election, no matter how perfect, was sure to be controversial. One third party, the Libertarians, polled 16,000 votes. They cannot be assigned blame for leeching Gore votes, because Libertarians tend to be ultra-conservative. Their damage was likely to Mr. Bush.

• That leaves some 25,000 votes possibly pulled from Mr. Gore by the remaining six third-parties. That means Mr. Nader pulled four times as many votes away from the Democrats as all the left-leaning third-parties put together.

• Had Mr. Nader not been on the ballot - and overall he took 2.7% of the vote, perhaps 2.7-million ballots which the Democrats could undoubtedly have used - there is scarcely much doubt that Mr. Gore would have won Florida with a healthy margin of several ten thousand votes.

• Also please recall New Hampshire with its 4 electoral votes. Had they gone to Mr. Gore, he would have won the election even if he lost Florida.  Mr. Gore lost New Hampshire by 7,000 votes, Mr. Nader took 21,000. We've heard it said that 3-6 other states might have tipped for Mr. Gore with Mr. Nader, and at the very least, Mr., Nader forced Mr. Gore to divert valuable resources that could have been better spent in defeating Mr. Bush.

• In 2004 Mr. Nader was not a factor: he won just 0.3% of the vote because the Democrats worked hard to throw mines in his path. It is always possible the same thing will happen in 2008.

• Our foreign readers should be aware there may be a big problem for the Democrats no matter who is their candidate. There are possibly millions of Democrats who will find Mrs. Clinton unacceptable under conditions, and the same is true for Mr. Obama. If Mr. McCain was an extremist, they would still such it up and vote their party just to foil him. But he is a moderate, and many of those millions might just vote for Mr. McCain so that their bete noire, be it Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Obama, is not elected.

• Point of clarification: the Editor is not a US citizen and is not entitled to vote in any election but the Takoma Park, Maryland municipal election. He consistently declines this "honor" because he believes it is wrong for non-citizens to be given a vote. The most precious thing to a member of a democratic society is her/his vote, and out of respect for American citizens the Editor would never even consider voting in the Takoma Park elections.

• Further, had the Editor been eligible to vote, he would in 2000 and 2004 have cast his ballot for Mr. George Bush, albeit with reservation. In 2008 he would cast his vote for Senator John McCain without any reservation at all.

• Thus, the above comment is not an apologia for the Democratic party.

• The Real Cloak Of Invisibility Readers by now probably know all about the US's "cloaking" research, which has achieved serious success in masking stationary objects. One technique is to cover the object to be hidden with the new light-absorbing materials which are said to prevent reflection of 99.99% of light striking an object.

• Now, you don't want simply a black hole because the enemy can look for these extra-dark spots. So researchers have come up with materials that absorb, in practical terms, all light received by an object, while simultaneously bending light from a second object behind the first in a way that you will see the second object but not the first, which remains hidden due to light absorption. Neat.

• The effort right now is not so much to make objects disappear completely, but to mask them sufficiently so that they blend into the background. This would adequately serve to defeat enemy PGMs.

• Scientists warn that a true Harry Potter cloak is a long ways off. The cloaking materials available today are several inches thick, so if you wore a Harry Potter cloak you likely would not be able to move on account of its weight. Moreover, you will still cast a shadow.

• All very well, but we hear rumors that the US Army is indeed working on an invisibility cloak for its soldiers. This cloak would take the color of its surroundings, so that a soldier standing in front of a white-washed building will appear as white as the building, but the minute he half stands in a dark doorway, part of him will be dark and part will remain white. Neat stuff.

• Made in China As Mrs. Rikhye continues in a foul mood - she ascribes it to her decision to quit smoking, but she is pleasant as always to anyone who is NOT your editor, so he suspects she is lying - your Editor meekly followed Mrs. Rikhye around Downtown Silver Spring's shopping district. As any red-blooded man knows, under no conditions do you keep a lady intent on shopping company, unless it's your most favorite girl friend and you are buying stuff she wants. You certainly do not accompany your wife on shopping trips, and it just goes to show how low your Editor has sunk in his non-existent love life.

• Any way, we stopped at a giant fashion shoe store. This may sound peculiar, but for various reasons your editor actually knows quite a lot about women's clothing and accessories, and he was struck by the uniformly bad quality of the shoes, labeled from $25 to $125 a pair. It struck him to check the insides of the shoes, and in 20 random samples, it turns out every single pair was Made in China.

• The Editor is unclear as to what public purpose is served by these tacky shoes, even if they bear the labels of some of America's best-known shoe-makers. It's fine to say "the consumer gets the price savings", but since presumably several hundred thousand American shoe workers no longer have decent jobs, and this is a pattern repeated in almost every major consumer item group, we no longer have the money to buy decent shoes and are forced, therefore, to buy cheap shoes. And cheap shoes cannot be made in America - so we are told, so the companies have to make their shoes in China. We wonder if the shoe companies' profits have gone down in the same proportion? We suspect not, because if a company is making less money from China shoes, why manufacture there. Plus, are shoes is the $50-$125 range all that cheap?

• In theory, the American workers displaced from shoes, toys, clothes, what have you, should get jobs in fields where America has a comparative advantage, say high-technology stuff. This theory fails to take into account that most factory workers do not and can not learn skills required for high-tech stuff. So they are working at jobs that pay less. So they're back to being able to afford nothing better than cheap Chinese shoes. Isn't there something self-fulfilling about this?

• When your Editor suggested to Mrs. Rikhye she might be better off spending a bit more money on Italian shoes, which still offer great value and great quality, she gave the Editor a "Let's not go there" danger look. It is Mrs. Rikhye's belief that all her problems begin and end with the failure of the Editor to earn a decent salary. She defines decent as a minimum of $200,000. So you can see what people mean when they say Washington people are out of touch with common America.

0230 February 22, 2008

• Congratulations, USA on shooting down the satellite on the first try. Of course, the task is easier than zapping warheads because the satellite orbit was known and it was a large vehicle. But missile warheads are red hot and easier for the tracker to pick up than the cold satellite.

• Technically, the satellite was a one-off experimental reconsat USA 193 and launched December 14, 2006 by Delta Flight 322, also called NRO L-21. (Acknowledgement: http://kevinforsyth.net/delta/weblog/?p=147 ). You can read about the launch part at http://www.spaceflightnow.com/delta/d322/status.html There as speculation if this was a radarsat because of its orbit, which was similar to the Lacrosse/Onyx radarsat orbits. The last Lacrosse, number 5, was launched April 20, 2005. See  http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/nrol-21.htm and http://space.skyrocket.de/index_frame.htm?

• Someone reminds us to mention that the satellite, said to be a follow-up to the famous Keyhole 11/12 reconsats, may have have had equipment abroad that could survive reentry beside the propellant tank These satellites cost a billion dollars apiece and have scads of very advanced technology that the US might want to keep out of unfriendly hands.

• Much to the Editor's disappointment, nothing landed on his house, so he can't sue anyone for anything. He is told in all the decades of space exploration, only one person has been hit with reentering space debris, and she was not hurt.

• The photograph below is from the US Navy via Associated Press. The ship is CG-70 USS Lake Erie, and the missile is the one launched against the satellite. As far as we know, launching Standards causes the ship to roll to one side or the other depending which launcher cell is used. As far as we can see, there is no roll, so was this picture taken at an angle perhaps cropped? There would be no ulterior motive in doing that, the purpose would simply to show a nice camera shot of the missile going straight up. Just wondering.

• Also, read http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7257666.stm for some future developments in the military satellite business.

• Comoros Plans Attack Against Secessionist Anjouan one of the three major islands that comprise this Indian Ocean country. Anjouan voted in its own government June 2007, and despite peaceful efforts to resolve the issue, the islands is still in revolt.

• Tanzania, Senegal, Libya and Sudan have agreed to contribute troops to an African Union force to help the government. France will assist with transport for the AU troops.

• PRC And Sudan Arms You don't often see us defending the PRC, but we have to ask people to be fair. Sure Sudan represses human rights, but so do a whole bucket of other countries that the west has no problem dealing with. Okay, so Sudan stands accused of genocide in Darfur. But what about Angola, the latest petro-darling of the west, which seems to war against its entire population by starving them of oil money? No need to mention several Central Asian nations that are America's best pals, or Chad, where the ruling tribe has been doing its best to stomp on other tribes. Etc. If the US says in the GWOT it has to deal with governments as they are, not as they like, then no point in beating up PRC for looking to its national security interests by dealing with Sudan.

• More to the point, BBC reports the Chinese as saying: 1. They supply 7% of Sudan's arms imports, seven other countries supply 93%. So why is China being picked on? Good point. 2. The Chinese note that Sudan is Africa's third largest arms producer, so with or without Chinese arms it will do as it pleases. The greatest problem faced by Dafuris is from Sudan helicopters, which are not Chinese, and from government-supported tribes, who use nothing more sophisticated than 4-wheel-drive vehicles, and infantry/infantry support weapons. These items Sudan can buy by the ship-load anywhere in the world.

• We'd also like to ask human rights people what are they doing about the several genocides in the Congo? Five million people have died in the Congo in intertribal wars. Once you have one people systematically seeking to kill another specific people, you are getting close to genocide.

• As for some people's definition that even one killing if it is based on ethnic factors is genocide, can we ask these people to do something useful, like digging holes in the ground and then filling them up?

0230 February 21, 2008

• Jose Tejeda On Cuba The exile community is mostly white, but are not
  numbered at 1 million (unless you include their descendants).  It is true that they were the beneficiaries of the Batista Regime which makes their
  alleged democratic credentials hard to believe.

• Exile politics for years has been characterized by hysteria.  Either you are for their version of "freedom" or you were with Castro.  Freedom of speech
  in this context did not exist.  If you were in Little Havana in the 1980s and were saying anything nice about the Castro Regime then, then you were a prime
  candidate for a visit by a couple of thugs armed with 5 gallon gasoline cans.  The gasoline was used for setting your house (or apartment or whatever) on fire.
   If they "were nice"  they would not shoot you offhand.

• What I mean by "they" is the exile activist themselves.  Many of them are still organized into paramilitary organizations like Alpha 66 who regularly
  conduct training out in the Everglades in the hope of one day "invading Cuba". Now to average Joes like you and I this sounds crazy, but that is what politics is like when it's laced with Latin style passion.

• I do agree that Cuba did achieve substantial gains in education and health care, but that does not change the fact that Cuba is still a dictatorship.  In fact,
  the 400 plus year history of Cuba can be described as one long series of military governments with no real democracy to speak of. To have democracy in Cuba, two things will have to happen:

• 1-Institutions will have to be created from scratch. Right now, the military is the only institution around to provide stability (like Haiti used to).  The
  Catholic Church could not count as an institution because of its relationship with the former regime, so it's discredited.  Institutions like a Supreme court
  or a parliament would have to evolve from within Cuba itself, and not imposed from outside.

• 2-Which leads to this second condition, that the Cuban people themselves would have to want change.  I think violent change is out of the question for Cubans otherwise we would have seen a violent revolution decades ago.  When I am speaking of Cubans, I mean Cubans in Cuba, not Miami.

• After five decades, the exile community in Miami is more of an immigrant community.  And even within that community, public opinion is not as monolithic as it was in the 1980s.  Now almost half would not object to
  lifting an embargo if it would help bring change.

• As for Cuban's desire for American culture, that is already a fait accompli.  From sports like baseball to boxing, there is little difference culturally between
  Cuba and America.

• US ASAT Intercept The US says it has to shoot down a satellite that never became operational after launch because it contains a fuel tank full of toxic fuel - intended for the satellite's maneuvering rockets. If this tank should crack on impact with land, an area equal to two football fields could be poisoned!! So it needs to be shot down.

• Ohmygoshohmygoshohmygosh runrunrun hidehidehide before the satellite hits hits hits omygosh wherecanwe hide if the intercept fails fails fails! Followed by many loud titters.

• Look, Gus (that's Government of the United States), we accept in the interests of national security you cannot tell us everything, but why do you have to give an absolutely tomfool cover story? You've been preparing for this shot feverishly for months. Never heard you say anything about the danger to two football fields before last week. Gus, you say the difference between the PRC ASAT shot and yours is that you are doing it in the open, they did theirs in secret. But, Gus, old buddy old pal, if you had any real concern about the two football fields, there would have been all sorts of discussion over the past few years, with open weighing of options and scientific discussion and all that. We may look like idiots, but that doesn't mean you can take us for idiots.

• Gus, you've said you'll have 9 opportunities to shoot down the satellite. At $10-mil per Standard 3, plus the tens of millions of dollars spent to put three warships on station, and the tens of millions (at least) spent in rewriting code and preparing for the test, you're talking about a bill that could reach $60-million according to the press, assuming you hit the think right off, and could exceed $100-million if you don't. All to avoid danger to people on the ground if the satellite lands on ground, and if it lands in a populated area, and if the tank busts open.

• Gus, my homie, I'll make you a deal. If the satellite lands on my house in Takoma Park, Maryland, and assuming I am not squashed as flat as pancake, I will sue the pants off you. And then what will I do with the money?

• I'll use the money to sue the pants off you for a failure to defend the United States so egregious as to amount to treason, specifically, your failure to:

• 1. Do your utmost to defend the people of the United States against enemy missile attack in the period 1967-2006; 2. Do your utmost to provide civil defense against nuclear attack - Gus, don't whine, the Swiss and we think the Finns provided shelter for every single citizen; 3. Enter into treaties with an enemy state to deliberately leave your population vulnerable so as to assure the enemy that you have everything to lose should you attack.

• Parenthetically, we'd congratulate you on doing the right thing by staging the first known ASAT test in two decades (Aw, Gus, don't be shy, we know you have other means of doing the job, so we wouldn't sue you there). But we are not going to congratulate you, because you are still being Wimpo Grade One in your mealy-mouthed explanation you give to avoid hurting the feelings of the Chinese and Russians. This Political Correctness thing has gone too far because now you don't want to offend people who are your enemies and would thrash you if they could.

• If you want our congratulations, stand up like a man or a woman and tell the world: "In the interests of national security, the Government of the United States has decided to stage an ASAT test. We do not owe you any explanations of any kind because we, not you, define what is in our national security or not in our national security. Quite incidentally, but this is really quite irrelevant, in knocking down this satellite, we'll also possibly be averting an exceeding minor environmental disaster, equivalent in scale to a tanker truck half full of dry-cleaning fluid (or whatever). spilling in the middle of Washington DC.

• (Actually, better not mention Washington DC. Anything that shortens the life of Washingtoons would undoubtedly meet with loud, enthusiastic cheers all over America.)

0239 February 20, 2008

• Fidel Castro Resigns his positions as head of Cuba. An election will take place on Sunday to decide his successor. Opinion is divided on what happens next. Most likely Raul Castro, the president's brother and acting successor, will win the vote. If so there could be change: he is said to be a Do type, not a Talk type like Fidel.

• He has also twice in the last 18 months called for talks with the US, and has several times told the Cuban people to tell him what the government should do to improve their lives.

• Others say the style may change, but the party's grip on Cuba will remain and no big changes should be expected.

• What the US will do remains to be seen. The US has no Cuba policy, it has a Cuban-American policy, letting a couple of million "white" Cubans living in America dictate its actions. If by change the Americans mean a US style democracy and courts where the émigrés can sue for compensation for their property nationalized almost 50 years ago then there will be no change. Cuba had a very exploitive privileged ruling class; the "black" Cubans were happy to see them go. They are now unlikely to agree to denationalization or compensation.

• America somehow has convinced itself that Castro's hold over Cuba was strictly on account of his monopoly of state force. This was never the case. Absent the US's constant machinations against Cuba and unremitting hostility, it is possible Castro would not have had the level of support he did. But with the US acting as it has, it legitimized Castro in the eyes of his people.

• Incidentally, for all its economic woes and the US embargo, Cuba has lower infantry mortality, higher literacy, and comparable life expectancy than Americans. That's because the Castro regime made health/education a top priority. In the US, of course, inequality in health and education is simply accepted as Divinely ordained, and a surprising number of Americans do not see why there should be universal education in equality in education.

• By resigning after 50 years, Castro leaves on his own terms. He does not need to flaunt the message that the US never succeeded in toppling him, because this longest-standing failure in American foreign policy is so obvious. US might want to think about opening up to Cuba instead of waiting for Cuba to open up to the US. It opened up to China and to Vietnam, those nations responded, and most would agree - we think - that the world is a better place.

• Let every American who wants to go to Cuba go, and open the floodgates of trade/aid. Get the Cubans hooked on American ideas and goods. We are not saying this is the best thing for them, because American consumerism is not the answer to the world's problems. We are saying that if the US wants to change Cuba, engagement will work better than containment.

• How do we know? Well, just look at the past 50 years. Madness is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Time for America to stop acting crazy.

• Pakistan Because we don't understand Pakistan's domestic politics, we did not catch that while the President's party, the PML(Q), has been routed, together with its several allies it has a larger number of seats by far than Mrs. Bhutto's party or Mr. Nawaz Sharif's party. These two will have to ally so they can show more seats than anyone else, which they need to do before being invited to form the next government.

• But as far as we are concerned, the return of these two parties, which looted Pakistan and did everything to stamp out its democracy in four governments, is not a good augury. There is no indication whatsoever they will clean up government and strengthen democratic institutions.

• Pakistan deserved better than President Musharraf and his thugs, but it certainly did not deserve what it is likely to get, Bhutto/Sharif and their gangs of thugs.

• It appears unlikely the two opposition parties can force an impeachment of the President, because his party still has a majority in the Senate.

• Meanwhile, we'd like someone to explain why Pakistan's North Kashmir is not allowed to vote. The Pakistanis frequently say that Indian rule in Kashmir is undemocratic, and it is true that whenever Kashmiri leaders have acted to secede the Indian government has cracked down on them - as would the US Government crack down if secession went further than just talk.

• It is also true that India has frequently sought to bring to power by any means leaders who support India. But at least Indian Kashmiris get to vote. We don't understand why the Northern Areas are not. Yes, they will vote to secede, because they hate everyone - India, Pakistan, and the rest of Kashmir. But Pakistan can take that option off the table, just as presumably the US will presumably not allow a vote to secede.  And if Pakistan wants Indian Kashmiris to be given the right to reject India, it should give its own Kashmiris the right to reject Pakistan. While West Kashmir does get to vote, you cannot bring up the "S" word without severe consequences.

0230 February 19, 2008

• [1200 GMT] With 259 of 268 Seats Counted, Bhutto and Nawaz Big Winners with Mrs. Bhutto's party winning 87 seats and Mr. Nawaz Sharif winning 66. The president's party has taken a beating, with just 38 seats plus 19 won by its major ally. Independents and small parties have won 46 seats so we can anticipate much horse trading. [Many results are unofficial; we use Jang and Dawn as our sources.]

• While an alliance between Mrs. Bhutto's Party and Mr. Nawaz Sharif's party (former prime minister) may seem logical to ensure an absolute majority, since both suffered under President Musharraf, in our opinion such an alliance will lead to conflict and instability for Pakistan, possibly in as little as 6 months. It would have been better if one or the other got 51% of the seats because that is a stable base, but even Mrs. Bhutto party can expect only one-third of the total seats.

• Turnout is still being estimated at less than 40% [Jang says 43%]; a pity, because this could become a historic election for Pakistan. Though the generals do have a way of thwarting history. The present army commander appears serious about taking the army out of political life, but should the army at any point feel the country's stability is threatened, it will intervene again. And unfortunately Pakistani politics have traditionally been so fractious that new instabilities are certain.

• South Asian politicians are a notably corrupt lot. For example, the Indian parliament has an estimated 30% members with criminal charges against them. They cannot be disbarred unless they are convicted of serious crimes, and with the weakness of Indian justice outside of the main metropolises, convictions are easy to avoid. In Pakistan you've had the problem of the usual corruption and unprincipled alliances just as in India and Bangladesh, but you also have the 800-lb gorilla in the form of the military. So even when you get stable governments - rare anywhere in South Asia, things can change in a flash.

• Nonetheless, congratulations to the Government of Pakistan for having conducted a reasonably peaceful election. Though the usual charges of fraud and intimidation are being hurled around by all sides, the foreign monitors still have said nothing. For all the charges of manipulation, the rout of the President's party indicates this was a reasonably fair election.

• UN Ethiopia-Eritrea Force Trapped The UN force inserted between the warring nations was ordered withdrawn to Ethiopia after Eritrea cut off food and fuel supplies. The UN says only six trucks were allowed to leave and the rest of the force is trapped.

• Eritrea has come up a wholly unbelievable excuse, saying it doesn't have any supplies to give the force. First, if a supply crisis was looming, Eritrea needed to tell the UN about it, not just stop supplies and say "we're out of stuff". Second, the UN pays for all its supplies, and imports if local shortages exist. So there is no question of being out of anything.

• Eritrea's probable cause of discontent is that the UN has not pressured Ethiopia to surrender the border town of Badme as was decided under the terms of a settlement. The Ethiopians, however, have their own reasons for stalling, and the UN is caught in the middle. The UN force is not there to fight anyone or compel anyone, it is there simply to monitor the ceasefire and to ensure no one slips in extra troops into the border zone without being reported.

0230 February 18, 2008

• Pakistan Elections Peaceful agencies report. Though 11 people were killed during voting, in the South Asia context this is a negligible figure and belies widespread concerns that the elections would not be peaceful.

• Turnout, however, appears low because voters were fearful for their security.

• Reuters says that several hundred foreigners monitored the elections. It remains to be seen what comments the monitors may have on the election.

• From Prof. Feisal Khan On Islam and the Pakistan Army A couple of points of clarification about what you wrote on Gen. Zia and the Pakistan Army.  Gen. Zia was appointed COAS in 1976 and staged a coup in 1977.  Zia did not institute Islamism in either Pakistan or the Army, he merely accelerated the process and carried it forward to its logical conclusion. 

• The process actually began with the introduction of the Objectives Resolution in the Constituent Assembly by PM Liaquat Ali Khan in 1949.  The Resolution enshrined Islam as the State Religion and mandated that Muslims would live their lives in accordance with the Quran and Sunnah.  The Resolution was a part of all three (1956, 1962 and 1973) Constitutions' Preambles and formally added to the body of the 1973 Constitution by Gen. Zia in 1985.

• It was Z A Bhutto who declared certain Muslim sects to be nonmuslim, banned alcohol and changed the weekly holiday to Friday.  Before Zia the Army had always used Islam as a motivational and unifying force; Zia merely institutionalized and formalized what had been done informally before.  While it is certainly true that before Zia senior officers were less overtly religious and more secular and that the Army had an overall 'secular' ethos, the class composition of the officer corps was already changing by the beginning of the 1970s, long before Zia was in a position to influence anything in the Army. 

• The sons of JCOs, NCOs and ORs, as well as many rankers (much more so than in the Indian Army) were already gaining commissions in large numbers in the 1960s and after 1971, virtually the ONLY ones who wanted to join the Army were them. 

• Zia, again, did not begin the changeover to an Islamic Army but he certainly accelerated the process.

• More Sri Lanka Fighting Underway The Sri Lanka Army continued its advance against LTTE rebels, saying it had killed 68 in the last 72 hours. This is likely an exaggeration.

• The toughness of the opposition can be gauged by one victory, where the Sri Lanka Army, supported by artillery, managed to capture just 600-meters of an LTTE bunker line.

• We would have liked to provided maps of the fighting, but ever since we were unable to make orbat.com work on a commercial basis, we have lost most of our correspondents. We still manage to update the annual, but little else.

• US To Buy - Gasp! -Total of 180 F-22 Raptors That's 1.8 wings' worth at 1 wing equals four squadrons equals 72 aircraft. Apparently the Administration thinks that's plenty. The original plan was for 750, cut to 380, and cut again to 180. If we understand rightly, the Administration feels the US military should focus on CI, which is all well and good, but with just 180 aircraft, no matter how good they are, US air superiority is no longer a given.

• In any event, equipping your army for CI does not cost much at all and has nothing to do with what the Air Force and Navy require. And further, by reducing to about 23% of the original requirement, the per units costs are jacked up enormously. You don't want to get to the point every time you lose an F-22 it's a national disaster.

• Just as in land warfare you need quantity no matter how good your quality - revisit Iraq for the truth of this proposition, you need quality and quantity for the Air Force and Navy

• To read what the readers of Defense Technology are saying, go to http://www.defensetech.org/archives/004005.html?wh=wh The matter seems to have aroused large numbers of people to write in.

• Kosovo Declared Independence Yesterday We have nothing to say on this except ask a single question. Why is it okay for Former Republic of Yugoslavia to be split with America's help into six countries - likely to be seven because Bosnia-Herzegovina might split - but wrong for Iraq, an artificial country like Yugoslavia, to break up?

• Your Editor Is Feeling Gloomy Today because not only is the current Mrs. Rikhye acting up, as she usually does when she is bored, but today is the birthday of an ex-Mrs.Rikhye and he can't remember which one because there seem to be so many. He is also gloomy because he received an invite for a dinner in Delhi for a gathering of his class and the one junior. All the invitees but one, who is a widower, appear married to their original spouses. The Editor is beginning to think he should have quietly married the girl he was supposed to marry at home, a future marriage approved by all parties. Obviously the Editor's judgment in the matter of women is, shall we be polite, non-existent.

0230 February 18, 2008

• From Prof. Feisal Khan On Islam and the Pakistan Army A couple of points of clarification about what you wrote on Gen. Zia and the Pakistan Army.  Gen. Zia was appointed COAS in 1976 and staged a coup in 1977.  Zia did not institute Islamism in either Pakistan or the Army, he merely accelerated the process and carried it forward to its logical conclusion. 

• The process actually began with the introduction of the Objectives Resolution in the Constituent Assembly by PM Liaquat Ali Khan in 1949.  The Resolution enshrined Islam as the State Religion and mandated that Muslims would live their lives in accordance with the Quran and Sunnah.  The Resolution was a part of all three (1956, 1962 and 1973) Constitutions' Preambles and formally added to the body of the 1973 Constitution by Gen. Zia in 1985.

• It was Z A Bhutto who declared certain Muslim sects to be nonmuslim, banned alcohol and changed the weekly holiday to Friday.  Before Zia the Army had always used Islam as a motivational and unifying force; Zia merely institutionalized and formalized what had been done informally before.  While it is certainly true that before Zia senior officers were less overtly religious and more secular and that the Army had an overall 'secular' ethos, the class composition of the officer corps was already changing by the beginning of the 1970s, long before Zia was in a position to influence anything in the Army. 

• The sons of JCOs, NCOs and ORs, as well as many rankers (much more so than in the Indian Army) were already gaining commissions in large numbers in the 1960s and after 1971, virtually the ONLY ones who wanted to join the Army were them. 

• Zia, again, did not begin the changeover to an Islamic Army but he certainly accelerated the process.

• US To Buy - Gasp! -Total of 180 F-22 Raptors That's 1.8 wings' worth at 1 wing equals four squadrons equals 72 aircraft. Apparently the Administration thinks that's plenty. The original plan was for 750, cut to 380, and cut again to 180. If we understand rightly, the Administration feels the US military should focus on CI, which is all well and good, but with just 180 aircraft, no matter how good they are, US air superiority is no longer a given.

• In any event, equipping your army for CI does not cost much at all and has nothing to do with what the Air Force and Navy require. And further, by reducing about 23% of the original requirement, the per units costs are jacked up enormously. You don't want to get to the point every time you lose an F-22 it's a national disaster.

• Just as in land warfare you need quantity no matter how good your quality - revisit Iraq for the truth of this proposition, you need quality and quantity for the Air Force and Navy

• To read what the readers of Defense Technology are saying, go to http://www.defensetech.org/archives/004005.html?wh=wh The matter seems to have aroused large numbers of people to write in.

• Kosovo Declared Independence Yesterday We have nothing to say on this except ask a single question. Why is it okay for Former Republic of Yugoslavia to be split with America's help into six countries - likely to be seven because Bosnia-Herzegovina might split - but wrong for Iraq, an artificial country like Yugoslavia, to break up?

• Your Editor Is Feeling Gloomy Today because not only is the current Mrs. Rikhye acting up, as she usually does when she is bored, but today is the birthday of an ex-Mrs.Rikhye and he can't remember which one because there seem to be so many. He is also gloomy because he received an invite for a dinner in Delhi for a gathering of his class and the one junior. All the invitees but one, who is a widower, appear married to their original spouses. The Editor is beginning to think he should have quietly married the girl he was supposed to marry at home, a future marriage approved by all parties. Obviously the Editor's judgment in the matter of women is, shall we be polite, non-existent.

0230 February 17, 2008

We have an insightful and brilliant letter from Prof. Feisal Khan on the rise of religion in the Pakistan armed forces. We will run it tomorrow, because we don't want the main article to detract from what he has to say

The Pakistan Army Does Not Need American Training - IV

• The US needs a completely different approach to Pakistan, and the approach requires the US to jettison its extremist ideology. Wait a minute, you will see: we're extremists? You are either senile or stupid to say that. The Islamists are extremists, not us.

• Not so fast Babaloos. Americans are the only people who think they are moderate. The rest of the world, ranging from the richest western countries to the poorest of the poor, do not see you that way. Your speech, action, intent, whatever, is absolutely extreme. Consider that Americans were the modern world's first revolutionaries. The Founding Fathers espoused an ideology so extreme that as far as the Euros were concerned - and so too the Russians, Chinese, and Japanese, to the extent they had relations with the US - the Americans were a dangerous virus that threatened the whole world. And of course, the American ideal of mass democracy and the rule of law did threaten the world.

• At some point in the first half of the 20th Century, the Americans became the reactionaries and they turned to a fight to the death with the new revolutionaries, the communists. But once the communists were finished off, Americans became religious revolutionaries. Their religion consisted of four parts: the traditional religion of God, a return to the old religion of democracy, and the new religions of human rights and consumerism. The difference between 1776 and - say 1976 was, however, a very big difference. For two centuries the Americans did not export their religion of democracy. They wanted to be left alone, and even when they got into the two world wars, it was with great reluctance and foreboding. The US involvement in both world wars was absolutely defensive.

• But in the war against communism, the US assumed, for the first time in its history, an offensive posture. With the communists in the trash bin, the US decided the whole world had to be converted to its religion of democracy, human rights, and consumerism, with quite a bit of the old God stuff thrown in.

• So folks, you may not think as Americans that you are extremists, but the world sees you as such. It sees you as intolerant, narrow-minded, religious zealots bent on taking over the world.

• [To which parenthetically we say what we have always said: hurrah for American totalitarianism and world empire, because it is the only way we will have global peace.]

• Because Americans are extremists, what we are going to to propose is not going to be met with loud cries of joy. And what we are going to propose is America should jettison ideology in the GWOT and get real. World War II was the last time America got to win 100% with its enemies ground to dust and unable to lift their heads - or whatever the Bible says about how your enemies are to be treated after defeat. America has to understand the new war cannot be won on America's traditional definitions of victory.

• It has to understand that CI is a very messy business, and to paraphrase Mr. Rumsfeld, you accept the victory you can get, not the victory you want. That means compromise, that ugly, evil, malevolent, un-American word.

• Because we don't want to give our readers more severe gas pains than they already have reading the last three days, we're going to cut this short.

• (a) Accept there is nothing you can do about Pakistan. It has 170-million people and is too big for the US to treat it like, say Panama.

• (b) Break the Taliban away from Pakistan by becoming their patron. Give them respect, money, aid, a place at the governing table, and accept Afghanistan is not going to become a shining bastion of democracy. Tell the Taliban and the Afghan people it is their responsibility to govern themselves, but you are always there to help. Tell them "We had no quarrel with you till you have OBL shelter, he's out of Afghanistan, let's forget about him and move on". Explain you will not attack them; in return they have to not attack America. You will be their friend if you will be their friend. Remind yourself you are best buddies with the Saudis, whose entire way of life is completely unacceptable to America. If you can treat the Saudis with respect and forget about their religion/politics/social life, why can't you do the same with the Taliban?

• (c) Embrace the Islamic reactionaries/revolutionaries, whatever you want to call them. Sample pitch: "We feel your pain and though we may not agree with your philosophy of life, we understand the regimes who rule you are tyrannical, corrupt, and unjust. From now on, we are on your side."

• (d) Jettison existing Mideast and Pakistani regimes They are the problem, not the solution. Join with the Islamists in overthrowing the Saudis, Egyptians, Pakistanis and so on regimes. Sign non-interference treaties with successor regimes. Offer them whatever help they want to ask for, and use only the gentlest, mildest pressure to get small things in return: a bit freer press, slightly more independent courts, some rights for women, and so on.

• (e) Peace and harmony will not rule, because the Muslim countries have huge, huge issues to work out that have nothing to do with the US. But the US should withdraw itself from the equation, instead of every year making itself a bigger target by escalating its opposition to the just demands of the Muslim people.

• (f) America, you can do this. The Germans and Japanese were your mortal enemies, they are your allies. And don't say "but we utterly defeated them and it's easy to be magnanimous to the loser" because you did not defeat North Vietnam and yet you are good friends, becoming better friends by the day. You did not defeat China, but you are partners on many levels, and please remember, 38,000 Americans died in the Korean War. That is an order of magnitude greater than American dead in the GWOT, and many time more than American dead in 9/11.

• (g) We are at no point saying America cannot win the GWOT. But the American people are not prepared to make the sacrifice to win. It will mean 10-20% of the GNP on defense, a draft, and 10,000 or more American dead each year - and it is likely to be a hundred years war.

• (h) Given the reality, America has two choices. Stumble along as at present and be defeated, because the American people will not countenance the cost. Or accept that if you beat a man over the head, you will never get him to work with you. Either you should kill him - Germany and Japan - or you should stop using force against him.

• Personally - and we really want our readers to understand this - we are all for the killing part. Your Editor had the American disease of fanaticism long before he arrived in America. Once here, he become a true believer in "Unconditional Surrender", and "Better Dead Than Red", and "Better 100-million commies burn in the nuclear fires than one American woman be violated by those godless commies" and  "America - Love It Or Leave It". That last was the sticker on his brief case. His anger over Vietnam is purely that the US did not start by put North Vietnam under an air-tight and water-tight blockade, and by blowing the Red River dykes so that a fourth of the north drowned and the rest starved like rats in a drought. He was very angry that the US did not use tactical nuclear weapons to defend Khe Sanh and to stop the 1972 offensive. He was 100% for Gulf II, and was appalled when the US did not continue its advance into Saudi Arabia, did not shoot looters, and a hundred other things.

• BUT: the Editor is sufficiently realistic to realize the America of World War II and of the Cold War is not the America of today. Americans talk patriotism, but they have become a greedy, selfish, narcissistic people, intent on satisfying the next consumer/advertising generated impulse. They have become soft, and couldn't sacrifice a bag of potato chips to save themselves or their country. With a few honorable exceptions, Americans are no longer Heroes, they are Big Fat Zeroes. But that is the reality, and it must be accepted. That means accommodation and turning our enemies into friends.

• And who knows? Maybe the Big Fat American Zero is right and the Editor is the one who is wrong.

0230 February 16, 2008

The Pakistan Army Does Not Need American Training - III

• Our argument so far has been that the Pakistanis consider the US the problem, not the Taliban/AQ. Every deeper involvement in the GWOT the Americans force on Pakistan creates a greater backlash. The reason Pakistan is teetering on the edge of disaster is not because of the Taliban/AQ, but because the US has frayed the always fragile and complex power relationships in Pakistan.

• If Pakistan collapses, it will solely be because the US has sacrificed the country for America's short term gain. The Americans will, of course, say "Sorry about that" and push off to wreck havoc somewhere else, and the Pakistani people and all of South Asia will be left with the consequences.

• Now lets get back to issue of the Taliban, though we are repeating ourselves to the point we bore us. The Taliban was created by Pakistan as a way of bringing Afghanistan under its influence and of gaining strategic depth against India.

• Now, nothing the Pakistanis do is simple: they may pretend to visiting Americans that they are just simple soldiers and farmers - tug of the forelock here - but their thinking, like that of their Islamic brethren is amazingly complex and sophisticated. Naturally, Westerners don't see that, because as far as the West is concerned, any nation espousing Islam is backward, and backward means stupid.

• The Taliban, backed by the Pakistan Army made amazingly short work of the various opposing Afghan factions. But there were other Pakistani imperatives. Two were: prepare for jihad in Kashmir, and bring all Pushtuns inside Pakistan before the Pakistani and Afghan Pushtuns decided to create their own country. In South Asia the classic strategy against centrifugal forces has traditionally been a outward expansion - India also uses this strategy, sometimes successfully, sometimes not.

• When the Taliban made the fatal mistake of refusing to hand over Mr. Bin Laden, America "persuaded" Pakistan to "cooperate" in the GWOT. We will not at this point go into why the Pakistanis allowed themselves to be "persuaded". But, caught between a rock and a hard place, they came up with a strategy they have consistently followed for the last 6 1/2 years, and for decades earlier. This has been to cooperate as minimally with the Americans as is possible, while continuing to pursue their own interests. And their interest, first, second, and always, has been to protect their creation, the Taliban.

• Till 2006, their objective of conceding as little as possible to the Americans while pretending to cooperate with them worked, because the Taliban lay low. Incidentally, we want to be unequivocal in stating that clear-thinking Americans in numbers understood exactly what the Pakistanis were doing. If the Americans have their myths about the Pakistanis, the reverse is also true, and while the Americans may look stupid, and often act stupid, they too are every bit as cunning as any Muslim, sometimes even more so. This we'll discuss another time, along with why, when the Americans knew they were being taken for a ride, they continued to deal with Pakistan.

• Be that as it may, by 2006 the Taliban had begun their comeback, and the Americans began applying firm and ever-increasing pressure where it hurt. Purely from Pakistan's interests, it would have been much better to kiss the US goodbye. We will explain as soon as possible, perhaps tomorrow, why the Pakistanis did not, and it is not to their credit.

• Pakistan was forced to deploy 40,000 troops to the the NWFP. Here the Pakistanis did what they were doing with the US since 9/11: pretend to fight but actually do as little as possible. And this continues today.

• Perhaps in our declamations we have overlooked explaining to our audience the traditional, centuries old - perhaps even millennia old - policy that India employed against the mountain people, be it in the NWFP, Kashmir, Nepal, and North East India. This policy, sensibly adopted by Pakistan after its creation, essentially leaves everything to the mountain people except for defense, foreign relations, communications, currency and some odds and ends. The Pakistanis give the mountain people money in various forms, and leave them strictly alone except if the mountain people get too big for their boots. Then the Pakistanis smack the mountain people hard, but immediately make clear they want peace, and the central government is willing to forgive and forget.

• Okay, if you are still with us, you will see where this is leading. Increasingly the Americans have forced Pakistan NOT to leave the mountain people alone and to abjure the old-age policy of political accommodation backed by the threat of force. So the mountain people have fought back, but at all times, even in the middle of the fiercest fighting, both sides are engaged in a deep dialog.

• On the Taliban side, the dialog goes like this: "you are our friends, our supporters, our mentors. You and we work for common objectives in Afghanistan. Why are you betraying us to the infidel?"

• The Pakistanis then say: "We are with you all the way. But the infidel is powerful, and we must bend with the wind. Since he is on the warpath, help us by proceeding about our joint business quietly."

• The Taliban reply: "Brother, you kid us, surely. First, we are on the verge of victory in Afghanistan. The infidels are ready to collapse and pull-out, especially the (expletive) Euros. You and us have worked long and hard to win Afghanistan back. And now you want to lay quiet because the infidel is kicking your rear end? Second, be men, and stand up to the Americans, and if the Americans turn against you and start killing you, so what? Death comes to everyone, but the cause cannot be betrayed. The Americans can never intimidate you if you stand up for yourself."

• So back and forth the central government and the Taliban go, with one day of desultory fighting for three days of talks. Because the Taliban is a confederation of autonomous groups of fighters, sometimes a group says "to heck with you sissies on both sides, we're going to show you both what needs to be done". Then they seize the Kohat Tunnel or whatever, and now the Pakistanis have no choice but to fight, because the Kohat Tunnel matters even more to them than to the Coalition.

• So: to sum up for today, and we really promise to bring this analysis to and end tomorrow by explaining what in our opinion the US should be doing in this part of the world. And what we are going to suggest, many Americans have quietly suggested as the only path of wisdom. But Americans have not as yet suffered enough in Afghanistan as in Iraq to the point they can forget their ideology and act sane. So we warn our American readers, you are going to a lot of gagging tomorrow.

• So: the issue is not to training or anything. The Pakistanis know exactly what they are doing and they will NOT fight either the Taliban or AQ. We've explained about the Taliban, and we'll have to leave for another day why Pakistan does not see it in its interest to fight AQ.

• We will also explain to you something that will shock you. Americans think Pakistanis will cooperate with them simply to save their own country. But a whole bunch of Pakistanis don't want their country to survive as is. If the Americans continue shafting the Pakistanis, Pakistan will break. But that's what a lot of Pakistanis want, so that a new Pakistan can be built: hardline Islamist with the primary purpose of joining other Muslims in war against the west.

To be concluded February 17, 2008

--------------

0230 February 15, 2008

The Pakistan Army Does Not Need American Training - II

• We concluded the first part of this short article with the rhetorical question: What does the US think it has to teach Pakistan about counter-insurgency?

• Before we continue, we'd like to make clear we do understand that Americans involved in the GWOT have many different points of view on Pakistan. These range from arguments identical to ours, all the way to the other end of the spectrum, where people want to believe all the US needs is to make a serious training/equipment investment in the Pakistan Army and the Frontier Corps, and Pakistan's CI capability will improve sufficiently to ensure the defeat of the Taliban and Al Qaeda.

• So when we say "Americans", we really mean those with rose-colored glasses.

• Mistake Number 1 we have already noted. The Pakistanis are perfectly capable of conducting CI. Reader Afan Khan asks to add the Punjab Crisis 1947-56 and the Dir-Bajaur operations of 1961 to Pakistan's CI experience. He notes neither are pure CI, because it's sometime difficult to draw a clear delineation between CI and Internal Security, and between insurgencies that happen in conjunction with external wars. The former would apply to the first and third Baluch crises - the third is still going on.

• Mistake Number 2 The Americans think that the Pakistan Army and Frontier Corps are not fighting well because of low morale and that the Americans can do something about it.

• There is no low morale; the issue is something quite different. Pakistan's security forces do not see why they should have to fight the Taliban and AQ, particularly as local proxies for America. They are not fighting well or extensively precisely because they do not see the Taliban/AQ as a threat to Pakistan.

• Mistake Number 3  The Americans think the Pakistanis believe the Taliban/AQ are a threat to their country. You will say, how are the Americans wrong on this? Are not the the Taliban and AQ are usurping the authority of the Pakistani state? Are they not waging war against Pakistan?

• Here the Americans have cause and effect reversed. The reason Taliban/AQ are fighting the Pakistani state is because the Americans insist Pakistan eliminate them. But for this, Taliban/AQ and the Pakistan state have no quarrel with each other. Taliban/AQ have NOT declared war on the Pakistan state, the Army, or the people. They have declared war on American stooges. Number One stooge is President Musharraf, Number Two stooge was Mrs. Bhutto.

• A Step Back To Understand the Background First, please see that Pakistan is a poor Islamic state. It is not for us to discuss the deadly antagonism between such states and the West, particularly America. But the Pakistanis, like most non-oil Muslims, feel that history has betrayed. They see the world progressing on every direction, whereas for them poverty, misery, and backwardness have become inescapable traps. They blame the rise of the west 16th through 20th Century for their plight. So how can you expect them to placidly accept western values as right and natural for them?

• Second, thanks to economic progress and the security provided by strong states for their citizens, most of us have become secularized to some extent. But Islamic nations by and large have huge fractions of their population stuck in the mind-set of the 15th Century. At that time, lest anyone forget, the west was as fanatically fundamentalist as today's Islamic poor. The west wants them to jettison their Islamic values; but as far as they are concerned, the only thing that gives them a sense of identity and self-worth is Islamic values.

• Fast forward to 1977. Pakistan has always been a deeply religious, theistic state. This was not true of the Army, for the simple reason the officer corps was drawn from the tiny English-speaking minority as was the case with the British-Indian Army. Obviously the Pakistan Army's officers shared the same values as westerners, and this was true also for Pakistan's civilian leaders, the media, the elite educators, businesspersons, and so on.

• In 1977, however, General Zia-ul-Haq took over the Pakistan Army, and effectively also Pakistan. Not only was he a deeply religious man, Pakistan from the day of its birth had undergone a non-stop series of traumas threatening its existence. Pakistanis were insecure in the extreme. General Zia, probably by instinct because he was not a "thinking man" decided the Army's salvation - and by extension Pakistan's salvation - lay in affirming Islamic values.

• So today you have an entire generation of Pakistan officers who have been brought up very differently from their predecessors. Before General Zia, if you were a religious person, you had to be very quiet about it. Now it is the reverse: if you are a secular person, you have to be quiet about it.

• As for the enlisted men, the NCOs, and the Junior Commissioned Officers, they were never westernized even in British times. They were truly of the people, their religion was a natural part of their life - as Judaism is a natural part of the Israeli military's life. The difference is that from General Zia's time, they have been encouraged to celebrate their religion as have their officers.

• So quite aside from the political advantage the Pakistani state has in backing the Taliban - something we have discussed many times, the Americans are in the very unfortunate position where almost without exception Pakistanis see the US as warring on their religion, their way of life, their very identity. This is particularly so since 9/11, and is a point so obvious it does not need to be labored. Given that the Pakistan Army is ultranationalist and the proud defender of its country, it is particularly incensed at the Americans.

• Mistake Number 4 Americans think the Pakistanis love them. All the Pakistanis want, say the Americans, is democracy, a little material encouragement, a pat on the back, and all will be well.

• Well, you can see where this misconception arises. How many American politicians, military/intelligence officers, media correspondents, businesspersons, and so on, speak Urdu? How many, when they visit Pakistan, go into the crowded "gallis" of the densely packed urban areas, how many visit the slums, how many get out to the villages, and how many of them sit on the ground with real Pakistanis to share a meal?

• You just know the only Pakistanis the Americans meet are those who speak English. So not only are the Americans dealing with the upper 1% of Pakistanis, given the Pakistanis - like most third worlders - are staunchly polite to their guests, no matter how insulting the guests are, 90% of what Americans hear from "their" Pakistanis may not even be what "their" Pakistanis actually believe.

To be continued February 16, 2008

0230 February 14, 2008

• Top Hezbollah Commander Assassinated by someone using a car bomb. The death was announced on Hezbollah TV, so unless you say his death was faked to throw off the pursuing hounds, it's the real deal.

•  This gentleman is said to be behind the 1983 bombing of the US Embassy in Beirut, the Marine Corps barracks attack, the 1985 TWA 847 hijacking, and triggering the second Lebanon war in 2006 when he was responsible for ambushing an Israeli patrol, killing 8 Israeli soldiers and kidnapping two. In addition he is believed to behind many other attacks.

• The US has twice tried and failed to capture him.

• The Israelis are the logical "suspects" but they have off-handedly said "why is everyone looking at us, many people wanted him dead."

• Perhaps, but we think the US can reasonably be ruled out because Washington would immediately have claimed responsibility in a message to the world "you can run but you can't hide". The killing took place in Syria, which is not exactly best buddies with the Americans, so there is no reason to make any effort to hide a US role. No one needs to be saved from embarrassment as is the case, for example, with US attacks inside Pakistan. even there if you notice, the US does everything possible short of formally claiming responsibility to let the world know it did the deed.

• Israel, on the other hand, has every reason to lay low because it does not want retaliation attacks. These will come, of course.

• Nonetheless, this was a job nicely done and whichever "unknown" nation is responsible - wink-wink-nudge-nudge - deserves congratulations.

The Pakistan Army Does Not Need American Training

• The Pakistan Army Does Not Need American Training to fight the Taliban/Al Qaeda. Normally we would have no hesitation in blasting those Americans for whom the training issue has become a mantra. We're not going to blast anyone, and we'll explain why tomorrow. Instead, we're going to shake our head in real sorrow at the incredible American inability to understand Pakistan.

• First, here we have the US military, that after Vietnam decided it wasn't going to fight another CI, as if it is up the US to decide which wars it will fight and not fight. So this military stumbles into a CI in Iraq/Afghanistan, and proceeds to do everything possibly wrong. So after some years it finally figures how to do CI.

• But it is still doing many wrong things, like stepping up bombing. Moreover, the US still making the worst possible mistake because it is fighting the insurgency in a way that is impossible to sustain. Insurgencies take decades to win, and if anyone thinks the American public will sanction $4-billion/week for decades, they have to drinking stronger than your Editor's Diet Pepsi. CI has to be economical not just of the lives of your soldiers, but also with the taxpayers money.

• Please note these are just two insurgencies. The enemy is drawing completely the opposite conclusion from them than is the US. That is, the enemy thinks it is winning because it has bogged down America with just two insurgencies. What is the US going to do when the insurgencies spread? The two are already threatening to become three - Pakistan, and the enemy is building up globally to open new fronts.

• After having had 1 or 1 1/2 successful years in one CI, Iraq, the US now thinks it has become the world expert and can advise other countries? Get a life, guys. No one wants your advice, least of all the Pakistanis.

• The Pakistanis have four successful modern CIs under their belt: East Pakistan 1971, which was a goner had India not massively intervened, and three against the Baluch, including one that is continuing today. The Pakistanis also have just a wee bit of experience in the North West Frontier, say 160 or so years, first as part of the British-Indian Army and then on their own.

• Moreover, they have 20 years experience fomenting insurgency in Kashmir, and though they lost that one because India simply threw in 25 soldiers for ever one guerilla. That is the direct reinforcement of Kashmir. Before the insurgency, the Indians already had 400,000 regular/paramilitary troops in Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, to defend the border. About half took part in the CI - the numbers fluctuated depending on the situation, but India at times had 45 soldiers per guerilla.

• Further, the Pakistanis have taken their lessons learned and are busy backing  somewhere between 10 and 20 insurgent groups in India, mainly in the North East.

• So what on earth does the US think it has to teach the Pakistanis?

To be continued 2/15/08

0230 February 13, 2008

• Hugo & Exxon: Another Twist Hugo has banned further oil sales to Exxon after existing contracts expire as retaliation for the company's case against Venezuela. So since Venezuela owns some of the US refineries capable of processing Venezuela's heavy crude, where is the oil Exxon wont get supposed to go? To another US company at a discount, possibly, unless there are other refineries somewhere else that can handle the heavy crude.

• Mr. Putin At It Again At a meeting with Ukraine leaders, Mr. Putin threatened to target the country with missiles if it participates in the US missile defense shield in Poland/Czech Republic. This seems to be a preemptive strike, as we haven't seen Ukraine's name come up in connection with the missile shield. Nice way to treat your pals, isn't it?

• By the way, according to US critics the ABM system does not and will not work. So does Mr. Putin know something the critics don't that is causing him to go nuclear ballistic on the shield?

• Security Of Pakistan's N-Arsenal Press Trust of India reported February 3 that: "Stating that the United States had no concerns about Islamabad's nuclear arsenal falling into the hands of terrorists, America's top military officer today ruled out operations by his troops in Pakistani territory.
  Admiral Michael Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said he was "very comfortable that Pakistan's nuclear weapons are secure" and the US was "not concerned that they are going to fall into the hands of terrorists"."

• The good admiral cannot be "very comfortable" unless the US has secured the weapons to its satisfaction. That's no secret. but we still haven't been able to figure out if the US took physical custody of the weapons or if it has set up its own security perimeter outside the Pakistan security perimeter. We've been told both ways.

• Status Of US Hypersonic Research Plans You can get the latest official details at http://www.military.com/NewsContent/0,13319,161914,00.html?wh=wh Since no one really knows about the Black programs, the US may be further along than official accounts suggest.

• What intrigues us about the report is the suggestion that the US would use such aircraft to zap missiles being prepared for launch against the US. Is the US referring to Iran or other rouge state missiles or Russian ICBMs? If the former, then there's no mystery. The US would have warning of launch preparations. If Russian ICBMs, you have a mystery because Russia has solid fuel missiles inside silos, so unless the US can pick up on Russian strategic force communications, we don't see how the US could have warning.

• East Timor Under Emergency Readers will know the President was critically wounded by rebels in an attack that saw the rebel commander killed - he led the attack himself, which is a commendable thing to do - not that we are condoning his action, but at least he took the same risks. The President remains in serious condition in a mainland Australian hospital.

• Tension is high because the rebels are still on the loose, so the Prime Minister - targeted in a separate attack but escaped unharmed - has declared a state of emergency.

• Times London says 800 Australian troops and 1600 UN police are conducting patrols in the capital Dili, and 200 troops from an Australian rapid response force are arriving as reinforcements.
   

0230 February 12, 2008

• Iran Ensures Few Reformists Will Run in the March 14th elections. Reader Marcopetroni tells us that of 909 reformists who announced their intent to contest the elections. just 138 remain after the Interior Ministry disqualified the rest. And the 138 will be allowed to compete only for 31 seats.

• The thing is, the majority of Iranians are fed up of their government's repression. They have no resorted to violence because they hoped the gradual liberalization taking place till recently would lead to a representative government. But between 2004 - the last election - and today, the clerics have moved to reverse liberalization.

• At a time like this, when steadily building discontent is likely to explode, the worst thing the US could do is to attack Iran. That will give the mullahs at least twenty more years of undisturbed rule.

• Mr. Putin, We Love You Even More CNN reports that four Russian Tu-95 Bears took off from a Far Eastern base on the night of 10/11 February, and headed for the Western Pacific. One violated Japanese airspace.

• Later one over-flew the USS Nimitz at 700-meters, another was 80-kilometers away, and the last two were 160-kilometers away. The Nimitz had 4 F/A-18s in the air at the time.

• We are cheering for Mr. Putin to be elected Prime Minister of Russia after he steps down as president. This man understands Cold War. There are so many US weapons programs in danger of termination because there is no threat. We are certain US weapons manufacturers must be making generous contributions to Mr. Putin's party - not that he needs the money as he said to be a multi-billionaire. Your Editor wishes only he had money to donate. He has one dollar he has saved for a lotto ticket today; he'd be glad to send it President Putin instead but doesn't want the president to get offended. Billionaires don't appreciate it when the Common People send them their pennies and one dollar bills.

• "Study Slams US On Insurgents" says CNN, referring to a RAND study commissioned by the Defense Department. Best to directly quote the CNN report http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/02/11/rand.insurgencies/index.html?iref=mpstoryview

• The U.S. military is seriously deficient in meeting "the threat of Islamist insurgencies," says a Pentagon-commissioned study released Monday.

• The Rand Corp. report characterizes "U.S. military intervention and occupation in the Muslim world" as "at best inadequate, at worst counter-productive, and, on the whole, infeasible." The Pentagon asked the nonprofit research organization to review strategies to thwart insurgents.
• The United States should instead focus its priorities on improving "civil governance" and building "local security forces," according to the report, referring to those steps as "capabilities that have been lacking in Iraq and Afghanistan."
• "Violent extremism in the Muslim world is the gravest national security threat the United States faces," said David C. Gompert, the report's lead author and a senior fellow at Rand. "Because this threat is likely to persist and could grow, it is important to understand the United States is currently not capable of adequately addressing the challenge."
• Now, we haven't seen the RAND report and have no quarrel with it. But we quite annoyed at the CNN's article tone. Does CNN really think that 90% of the US military is not in complete agreement with the report? Every article we read about US forces in Iraq seems to have at least one quote from a military person that military means alone cannot win the war for the US.
• Hasn't the US military been acting on the exact principles that RAND suggests? What is the Awakening but the RAND principles long before RAND came out with the report?
• Look, folks, we've been pretty upset about the way the US has conducted the Iraq war. But if you look at all the bad decisions made carefully, you will see they came from the politicals, not from the military. The sole exception is the failure of the military to object to the original plan. In the US, however, in the military as well as everywhere else, objecting on grounds of reality when the higherups are all gung ho about this policy or that seldom works. Rather, you are labeled as "not playing on the team". The military has gone through so many times we think its understandable the generals meekly rubber-stamped Mr. Rumsfeld inane plan.
• After that the military has time-and-again tried to fight the war in sensible fashion, only to be overruled by the politicals. When the politicals in desperation finally gave the military a free hand, it succeeded - but each declaration of success is carefully qualified by the military to note the need for political solutions.
• It is not the job of the US military to get the Iraq Government to function. That is the politicals job, and as usual they are failing. The military, conversely, is succeeding.
• CNN and RAND need to direct their focus to the politicals, particularly as in the US the military is completely subordinated to civilian authority.

• The Reich Of The Black Sun Reader Ryan Jones sent us a link to this book, which may be read free at http://missilegate.com/rfz/swaz/index.htm Mr. Jones says there are print errors, possibly because the book appears to be scanned from a print copy. He hopes the people who have put it up on the web have done so legally, but legally or not it is available. We assuaged our conscience by reading but not downloading the book.

• Your Editor is only half-way through the book, and will withhold comment till he's gone through it. But just as Mr. Jones promised, this is no "Hunt for Zero Point". It is written as a serious academic treatise with all material referenced, and the author's speculation clearly identified as such, along with reasons his speculation might be wrong. It makes an astonishingly complex subject, the super-weapons of the Third Reich - which may have included a Doomsday Machine - into a simply-written, lucid exposition for which you need no technical background. The book does not have a sensational line in it that we have seen so far, and the result is that it's impact is far more profound - and sensational - than Mr. Cook's book.

• Before you read the book, I want to tell you an odd story. It's quite possible that I have an unexplained penchant for meeting up with crazy people and having crazy experiences, but the person I will tell you about was a serving lieutenant-colonel of the US Air Force that I ran into - the time was the mid-1980s, some years after the Desert One fiasco.

• I put to him, based on information received, that there was no fiasco. Yes, the accident had taken place, but the mission had provided for unforeseen events. While the official version said the mission was called-off because of the accident making its continuance impossible, the real reason was the US agent(s) keeping Head Office informed of the shifting locations of the hostages. He/they signaled that conditions were no longer favorable for the rescue - on the Teheran end. While I could come with many explanations of why the conditions were now unfavorable with the mission's final jump about to take place, it would be pointless to speculate because my source gave me no details.

• The American officer was non-committal, murmuring he knew nothing about the mission. I expressed astonishment that the mission was being directly controlled from the White House. It seemed highly unprofessional.

• At this the officer merely shrugged and said (as nearly as I recall): "I flew  classified helicopter missions in Vietnam where the President spoke a few words to us over the radio." All he would allow was that in 1972 he flew one such mission over Laos.

• "Ah," said I "so I will have to wait till 2002 to learn about your missions." He replied that they were classified for longer than that. Well, I was no naif and I knew the US Government put 50-year classifications on some material. I expressed doubt I would still be around in 2022.

• "They're classified for 100-years," he said, "of course, some future president could decide to lift the classification at any point."

• Now, I certainly did not know about 100-year classifications. I made a mental note to check with other people that the officer was not having fun at my expense. In those days, however, my job did not include the US, beyond some checking to learn which Indian military/intel/government personnel the US Government was buying off. That is another story for another time, but my point is I forgot to ask anyone - indeed, I did not even remember that incident till I read "Black Sun".

• The point is, whatever the rules on paper, obvious a government can keep classified whatever it wants for as many years as it wants.

• The documented material in "Black Sun" has such serious historical ramifications and perhaps even some present-day ramifications that it is doubtful the US Government will see it fit to release the classified material concerning the events and happenings described in the book.

• This is not because the US Government did something wrong. The US did what it had to win the war, that was the Government's duty to its people. But a lot of the stuff has to do with Nazi scientists co-opted by America. While it is no secret that's what the US did co-opt, for example Prof. von Braun, the true father of the US space program, there seems to have been a whole bunch of other stuff going on that might upset people with no insider knowledge of those terribly desperate days.

• So it is possible the public will not definitively know about many things that happened during the war until the very last person who was alive during those days is dead. That could be 20 years from today. A pity, because many of would like to learn the truth before we die.

• But then, the US Government is under no obligation to satisfy the curiosity of anyone.

0230 February 11, 2008

• US Believes It Has AQI On The Run We see no reason to doubt the US assessment that it has broken AQI. Of course, there are elements of psychological warfare in some material being presented as evidence that AQI has been defeated. For example, yesterday's Washington Post talked about  the diary of an Emir who says he is down from 600 men to 20. The dairy excerpts given are worded in just the way as the US would like to imagine a defeated Emir might speak. You can read the Times London version of the story at http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/iraq/article3346386.ece

• Forget what the US says, look at the figures instead. You can say Baghdad violence has fallen because of the Surge and so on, but what's stopping AQI from attacking other parts of Iraq? The country is geographically huge, and there is little security in many areas. But we are seeing very few attacks by AQI. So it's reasonable to assume the Bad Guys have been defeated.

• There are, however, problems with this assessment, correct though it may be.

• First: there was no AQI when the US invaded Iraq. So it is not at all a good thing that the US has spent 4 1/2 years beating down a threat that was created as a result of its own actions.

• Second: anyone remember Second Indochina? Each time we thought the enemy was defeated, it turned out only to be a lull in the fighting before the next onslaught. We know that AQI started out with excellent tactics and then became amazingly foolish to the point of turning the very same people who welcomed it into enemies. Is it not possible that all that is happening is that AQI is regrouping?

• Third: the US may stay in Iraq 100 years, but you need two to dance. To believe the Iraqis will let the US stay a day longer than they think neccessary is to fundamentally misunderstand the Iraqis. With oil prices where they are, and with Iraqi output increasing, it's just a matter of time before they have the money to bid the US farewell. At $100/barrel, a daily export of 2.5-million barrels/day means $1-billion revenue every four days, or $91-billion. At some point it makes more sense for the Iraqis to pay several countries to defend them, with the Iraqis giving the orders, then to be continually kissing Uncle's rear.

• Fourth: the battlefield may be changing from Iraq to Pakistan. If that is happening, the US has simply exchanged one major headache for another, bigger, headache.

• Ms. Bhutto Killed By Bomb Blast says Scotland Yard - the same explanation the Pakistan Government gave and for which it was roundly ridiculed. The Yard said there was only one killer: he fired the shots and detonated the bombs.

• Naturally this explanation will not satisfy who do not want to be convinced. The Bhutto family could have avoided all this by insisting on an autopsy. But that didn't suit the family for various reasons.

• More rational people who perhaps know the Yard is impartial in this discussion have said it's not important how precisely Mrs. Bhutto died. The important think is to find the people behind the killing. We entirely agree, with the caveat that bringing the guilty to justice will solve nothing here. That does not mean, of course, that every effort should not be exerted to bring them to justice.

• We felt from the beginning that President Musharraf was the person with the most to lose by Mrs. Bhutto's death. If he is forced out, the murder will prove to be the proverbial straw on the camel's back.

• Good Old Hugo The other day Exxon won a court ruling in the UK that froze $12-billion in Venezuela foreign assets until a dispute between Exxon and Hugo is resolved in court.

• So now Hugo says if his money is seized, he will stop selling oil to the US. The price of oil will reach $200/barrel, and more than one country is willing to join him in retaliating against US economic warfare and blah blah blah.

• Its indeed a pity Hugo never learned anything about oil economics. First, only the US can refine the bulk of the heavy oil he sells to America. Other people will need to build new refineries and his shipping costs to his new customers will jump. While these events are happening, Venezuela will be down several billion a month. That will kaput his foreign policy and much reduce his largesse to his masses.

• Next, once the new refineries are built, say in China, they will simply reduce the need for China to buy other oil. The US will pick up the oil China is not buying. The price of oil will remain the same, but Hugo will be bankrupt.

• As for the other country who will join him, as the poet said "Like flies to like". There might be other Looney Tuners willing to join Hugo. But again, the oil they don't sell to the US will go to someone else, the US will buy that missing oil from someone else.

• We're assuming, of course, that you as a supplier can embargo sales to a particular country. So what do you do when - say - France Total buys oil and quietly ships it to the US.

• Nonetheless, good for you, Hugo. You can always be relied on for a laugh.

• Letter from G.R. Gabbert On Being Saved We have not received permission from Mr. Gabbert to print his letter, but essentially he offered encouragement and noted that it is never too late to be saved.

• The problem is that while the Christian interpretation of  God is that God is always ready to forgive if a person shows a genuine wish to change, the Hindu interpretation of God is an impersonal being who simply tallies your good deeds and your bad deeds without interfering in any way with what you're doing, good or bad.

• When you die, there is a loud "Kaching!" and the Celestial Computer provides a readout based on arcane equations that determine if you are promoted to everlasting union with God or demoted to cockroach, or something in between. You can also be reincarnated as Paris Hilton, but that prospect is so terrifying the Editor, at least, cannot face it rationally.

• You can always wipe out a whole raft of bad deeds by even just a single good deed so good that the balance comes to zero or even goes into positive territory. Between 1969 and 1983 the editor committed a series of ultra-bad deeds. He knows what he needs to do to zero the balance, but lacks the courage to act. So it's likely going be cockroach for him.

• The good thing here is that while cockroaches may not be much for writing blogs, but as a species they cannot be eradicated. Roaches are the ultimate survivors.

0230 February 10, 2008

Our host company cut off service on account of the monthly bill not being paid, so the site was inaccessible for about 24 hours February 7/8. We pay just under $600/year for the service, mainly because the site is rather large and bandwidth usage is heavy. We'll have to figure something out, because we no longer earn any revenue except on the publishing side. That money covers costs and occasionally permits small payments to authors.

• India Finally Reacts To China Threat We're going to keep this very short, because just-before-bedtime is not ideal for the Editor's favorite topic, the amazing incompetence of the Indian Government when it comes to the nation's security. It's not good to go to sleep angry. Suffice it to say that as of now the Indians have woken up regarding China from their lengthy coma and are taking action.

• In this there is a lesson for those who think the US can peacefully co-exist with China Rising and all it will take is a bit of careful management. Because they have so much money tied up in/on China, Americans have been living in La La Land. The only reason China has not threatened the US is that as yet it lacks the economic means to expand it's military. Since India is only a trillion dollar economy and since it shares a border with China, the latter has lost no time in threatening India even though India has given China no provocation whatsoever for 40 years, and in fact desperately wants to be friends.

• Things have gotten so bad that even the idiotic, stupid, moronic, catatonic, drugged-out, criminally careless Government of India has had to take notice.

• Sandeep Unnithan of India Today alerted us a while back, but asked us to keep the news quiet till his story came out. Then Rohit Vats wrote to us to say the Times of India had the story; simultaneously, Sandeep's article was published. Many thanks to both.

• Luckily we managed to get ahold of Mandeep Singh Bajwa, our usually-missing-in-action South Asian correspondent.

• Now, we cannot share much of what Mandeep said because we don't want him in trouble with the Indians. As far as the Editor is concerned, the Government of India should be buried up to the neck in sewage and left to the tender mercies of the flies and mosquitoes for its national security failures. But then since he is in the US, the Indians can't get ahold of him, so he can talk big. [In fairness, it's unlikely they even remember who your Editor is, it's been so long.]

• Essentially, the two new mountain divisions mentioned in the press is only an immediate response; there is much more to come in the next five years. Indeed, so much more is to come that the Chinese may regret they provoked India for no reason than their giant collective ego.

• Among the measures announced are $3.5-billion for new border roads, additional rail links, and several new airfields. Of course, all this is simply trying to catch up with where the Chinese were re. their Tibet communications infrastructure ten years ago. They are undertaking a massive further expansion that India will have to deal with.

• Also included are a major expansion/modernization of helicopter units, with the American CH-47 Chinook being of great interest. Also to be accelerated is the mountain artillery part of the the $3.5-billion artillery modernization. This aims to standardize Indian Artillery on the 155mm gun, and includes long-range multiple rocket launchers, and surface-to-surface missile units capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

• We don't blame the Chinese for being so contemptuous of the Indians. Yet compared to the contempt the Editor has for his government, the Chinese are positively kind. But what the Chinese are going to learn is that not only has India changed, that process of change is just starting. There is an entirely new generation in India that is waiting to take over, and this new lot is just as tough as the Chinese when it comes to national security.

• Israel has a point when it says that it no longer wants to be responsible for Gaza and the Gazans should make their own arrangements for power, fuel, and so on. Israel has withdrawn from Gaza, but keeps getting attacked on a daily basis. If the Arabs and the West care so much for the Gazans, let them do the looking after.

• Fair enough. The difficulty is that Israel maintains a very tight blockade of Gaza by land, sea, and air. On the Egypt-Gaza border, Israel lays down the terms under which Gaza can be supplied. Moreover, Israel reserves to itself the right for its military to cross the border whenever neccessary. And we don't even want to speculate how many Israelis are operating undercover in Gaza.

• Unless Israel permits other nations to supply Gaza, barring war material of course, Israel remains responsible for Gaza simply by virtue of the blockade. And "war material" cannot include stuff like hearing aid batteries - which can be used to power rocket detonators - or stuff that has a civilian purpose but can be perverted to manufacturing rockets. Otherwise you are barring thousands of items needed for every day life, and your responsibility for the welfare of Gazans remains.

• We wonder why Israel is not recalling that it is cutting power/fuel to punish Gaza for the rockets. If power/fuel come from other countries, say POL for generators and vehicles, then Israel has to let it through. It will lose its power to punish.

• It's possible Israel has begun to realize that punishing civilians as a way of getting them to put pressure on the militants is ineffective aside from being illegal.

• But tying all this to an international force, on the grounds of "you get upset when we defend ourselves, well, you defend us from the militants and we'll hold you responsible if you fail" is not going to work. Israel with all its ruthlessness has not been able to control Gaza. Is the world mad that it will undertake this job?

• Incidentally, we 100% support Israel's right to build its border security walls. These have been very effective; indeed, they are the reasons the militants have resorted to rockets. Our problem is that part of the walls that illegally take Palestinian land.

• A New Explanation Of Heaven This is from the Anglican Bishop of Durham's conversation with Time.com (Direct quote):

• There are several important respects in which it's unsupported by the New Testament. First, the timing. In the Bible we are told that you die, and enter an intermediate state. St. Paul is very clear that Jesus Christ has been raised from the dead already, but that nobody else has yet. Secondly, our physical state. The New Testament says that when Christ does return, the dead will experience a whole new life: not just our soul, but our bodies. And finally, the location. At no point do the resurrection narratives in the four Gospels say, "Jesus has been raised, therefore we are all going to heaven." It says that Christ is coming here, to join together the heavens and the Earth in an act of new creation.

•  http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1710844,00.html

• Your Editor was highly relieved to hear this.  The thought of wearing a white robe, being reduced to neutral gender, and playing a harp while sitting on a cloud for all eternity and beyond was so unappealing, he has conducted his life to ensure multiple times over that he will not get to heaven. Now there seems to be a most excellent reason; he only wonders if it's too late...

• Incidentally, compare the Bishop's view of Heaven with Phillip Jose Farmer's Riverworld

0230 February 9, 2008

The Republic of Berkeley

• It is time to put this entity outside the United States and let it fend for itself. Commonsense tells us you cannot have one republic inside another. To try and talk sense into ROB is a waste of time because there is something in the water that seems to put its inhabitants in another universe. So best to send it to another universe.

• Thus: declare Republic of Berkeley independent, fence it from the United States, impose border controls, and impose Cuba-like sanctions on the new country. Presumably it will not have to come to this, because once the plan is announced, the good citizens of ROB will desert their new country, leaving a few holdovers from the 1960s who will roam around in a happy daze, inhaling whatever the new drug happens to be, and growing corn to survive, or whatever.

• Berkeley citizens have every right to their opinion. If their opinion is that they do not want military recruitment taking place on their territory, that is legitimate.

• But they do not have a right to choose which of the responsibilities required of them as United States citizens they will obey.

• It is understood that in return for the benefits that belonging to the United States confers on its citizens, we are required to tolerate laws that may be unpopular to some or most of the population. You cannot say: "I will follow Laws A, B, and C because I see benefit to myself, but I will not follow Laws X, Y, Z because I see no benefit to myself." The reason is a practical one, because someone else may say: "I will follow Laws X, Y, and Z but not A, B, and C, because I see no benefit for myself in the latter." Then you get anarchy, and we believe that Hobbes had something to say about that state of being.

• So while ROB citizens have a right to protest against the military, they do not have a right to prohibit military recruitment. Particularly because the military is all-volunteer. If 18-year olds have the right to vote, they also have a right to decide for themselves if they want to enlist.

• The United States has a system that allows any person in this country of 300+-million redress if s/he feels unjustly treated. ROB citizens have the right to petition the courts to remove recruitment stations from their republic.

• We are sure there are enough people in the US who will contribute financially to make a string of suits possible so money is not an obstacle.

• Until the courts decide, ROB citizens must obey United States laws or they must secede.

• Since they are unlikely to secede because they likely find adherence to US laws is overall very much in their interest, there is only one solution: put out the Republic of Berkeley to fend for itself.

0230 February 8, 2008

• Senator John McCain Is Republican Nominee after the withdrawal of Governor Mitt Romney from the race. Technically it is only a suspension, perhaps because Mr. Romney wants concessions from Mr. McCain before he throws his delegates behind the Senator.

• To those non-American readers who were wondering at the sudden capitulation, you only need to keep in mind that Mr. Huckabee's delegates would have gone to Mr. McCain and since Mr. Huckabee has made an unexpectedly strong showing, the combination of delegates becomes unbeatable.

• Now the question is, who is to be the Veep? Mr. Huckabee will certainly pull conservative Republicans behind home. But Mr. McCain has to be careful to not alienate independents, who basically decide elections. This is particularly the case because there are significantly fewer Republicans than Democrats in the US. The appeal to the middle is what wins. Mr. Bush did on 2000 come across as a moderate. We'll leave it to others to analyze what went wrong.

• India Buys 6 C-130Js after what must have been the longest yak-yak for any arms deal India has entered into. The Indian Air Force has wanted C-130s since the US came to India's aid in 1962 during the Sino-India War. Some fifty years - 2011 - the aircraft will actually start arriving.

• We don't mean to imply that India actually drew up a requirement for the C-130 after 1962. Money was simply unavailable, and in any case, Indo-US relations headed for a nosedive after the F-104 fiasco. India then shifted to the Soviets, who it had previously carefully kept out of the country. It is only when the Soviet supply line collapsed in 1990 and India's economy really took off in the late 1990s that serious discussions about the deal became possible.

• It remains to be seen how many aircraft will eventually be procured. Six, in the context of India's requirements, is simply a token.

• As far as the US is concerned, the $1-billion involved is peanuts. But as Press Trust of India says, a psychological barrier between India-US has finally been broken. The way is now open for several more deals, the most urgent - from the Indian side - is 126 Light Combat Aircraft for $10-billion. That itself is also just a beginning.

• Hamas Adapts to Israeli counter-strikes that inevitably follow Hamas rocket launches. The Jerusalem Post says that the Israelis have uncovered launchers dug into the ground and fired by remote control. These are very difficult to detect, and were first used by Hezbollah during Second Lebanon in 2006. Moreover, thanks to the remote control, there is no one to hit.

• We are concerned about the possibility that Hamas will locate these launchers in heavily populated areas so that any Israeli retaliation will fall on civilians, effectively ruling out retaliation.

• We assume this concern has played into Israel's "considering" whether to go after the Hamas leadership if the rockets don't stop.

• Israel, of course, must boost the morale of its citizens, but the truth is Israel has already targeted Hamas's leadership. It is not for lack of trying that the Hamas leadership is still around.

• Israel Strikes Back Thursday after the daily delivery of rockets and mortar shells landed in Israel. No one was killed or injured, but three people were treated for shock. Israel says it killed 8 Palestine militants in retaliation.

• ISimply for fairness we need to point out when Israeli aircraft, tanks, and artillery beat up Gaza, Palestinian civilians suffer a lot more than shock. The Israelis do not deliberately target civilians, but forget about intent, look at the results.

0230 February 7, 2008

• Israel Planning Egypt Border Fence to prevent ingress of terrorists from the Egyptian side of the Sinai, as appears to have happened after Hamas breached the Gaza-Egypt fence.

• Haartez of Israel reports that Israel is likely to accede to Egypt's request to double its security force in the Sinai.

• We seem to have omitted to mention that though the Egyptians consider the Palestinians as kin, they are not anxious to have Hamas zipping around the border. Hamas has very close ties with Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood. The Brotherhood has been battling the government for years, and would basically like to hang the Egyptian ruling class from Cairo's lampposts if possible. The Brotherhood is Egypt's biggest internal security threat, and Egypt has to do everything possible to keep contact between Hamas/Brotherhood to the minimum.

• This Is a Real Giggle A lot of people have been proposing an international force for Gaza. Israel has - correctly we believe - resisted the proposal for years because it would end Israel's ability to take whatever measures it wants to assure its security from Gaza threats.

• But now the Israelis seem to be seriously willing to study the idea.

• Great idea. But who in his right mind is now going to agree? Israel may be willing to give up its freedom of action in Gaza, but which country wants to station troops between the nutzoid Palestine extremists and the equally nutzoid Israels? Rockets will be flying in both directions over the head of the international force, and every now and then either the Israelis or the Palestinians will deliver a blow to the international force.

• The UN will never agree to such a force unless there is a peace agreement that is shown to be sticking. As for the EU/NATO sending troops to Gaza, now there is a real chuckle.

• US Studies How To Destroy Enemy Internets We don't remember where we read this item, but it makes sense because now everyone uses the Internet as part of their defense communications. The PLA, in particular, has been going all out to build Internet-based communication nets that can withstand US attacks.

• We were, nonetheless, struck by the irony. The US created the Internet primarily as a defensive measure to provide communications networks that could survive a Soviet nuclear attack. The whole Internet thing seems so obvious now, but in the 1970s it was a revolutionary concept.

• The world has learned so well from the Americans that now the Americans have to come up with ways to destroy massively survivable communications networks, in other words, other people's Internets.

• Richard Armitage Denies Threatening Pakistan At a Brookings Institute discussion in Washington, DC yesterday Mr. Richard Armitage denied telling the Pakistanis the US would bomb them back to the Stone Age if they did not cooperate in the Afghanistan campaign. "I do not make threats I cannot follow up" - if we heard his whole sentence correctly.

• Well, we do not expect that Mr. Armitage planned to personally bomb anyone back to any age, so his assertion about threats etc is technically correct.

• The problem is, that a threat along those lines was certainly made. Aside from other evidence, there is President Musharraf's almost apologetic statement that Pakistan had no choice but to join the war. Since the war intended to destroy Pakistan's success in creating the Taliban and in bringing most of Afghanistan under the Taliban, it's a bit difficult to believe that Pakistan, which was being treated like a pariah by the US, willing agreed to destroy its own instrument just because the Pakistanis just fell for his considerable charm on the Pakistanis.

• In any case, what is wrong with threatening someone into cooperating when you are at war? Mr. Armitage should be proud he was selected as the messenger and was successful.

• More On The French Rouge Trader Wall Street Journal says that while the French Bank in question claims it has losses of $7-billion thanks to the rouge trader, it actually booked a profit of $2-billion on his trades last year. The French taxman, who is legendary for his lack of humor when it comes to people trying to evade tax, will claim his share of the profit, says WSJ

• Letter From Guy Dampier On Ernie Pyle It is also entirely possible that Pyle was killed by Japanese soldiers using a captured .30 cal, the use of captured weaponry being common to all theatres.

• Editor's Note Another good point raised. 7.7mm is .303 caliber, and the US .30 caliber is actually - if we recall right - is .308 inches. So the Japanese presumably could use British ammunition, or use their ammunition in both the British and US .30 caliber machineguns. The Soviets, of course, carried this business to a fine art: their 82mm mortar could fire Western 81mm shells and there were other weapons that could use western munitions, but we forget which.

0230 February 6, 2008

• Chad The rebels are at a standstill and have not resumed fighting even as an estimated 50,000 civilians flee the capital. It appears the government counterattack with attack helicopters and possibly other aircraft has cost the rebels their expected victory, at least for now.

• Time.com says that though the French are issuing threats about intervening, President Sarkozy has been trying to move away from the five-decade old policy of supporting friendly dictators. Chad, incidentally, was rated by Forbes in 2006 as the most corrupt country in the world.

• Pakistan Army Chief Reversing Some Musharraf Policies says the Christian Science Monitor. General Kiyani has forbidden officers from meeting with politicians and has asked the numerous senior officers with positions in the civilian bureaucracy to resign. The CSM is pleased that General Kiyani is acting on lines suggested by the US.

• We think CSM is being a bit naive. The moves are precisely what honest professional officers have been demanding for many years, long before the US got into the act.

• And the US is going to be  a bit taken aback when General Kiyani issues instructions - if he has not already - that under no conditions can senior officers meet with foreign diplomats unless the meeting is sanctioned in advance. A dinner at the US ambassador's house will have some chance of being approved. But US officials freely calling on senior officers will be verboten.

• We are not sure if the US understands that under these rules, which are standard for most armies, its officials would not have been able to meet so freely with senior officers - including General Kiyani himself before he became Chief.

• We are also unsure if the US understands that Pakistani generals are as patriotic as American generals, and whatever they may say out of politeness in meetings, formal or casual, they are less likely to act against their country's interests than President Musharraf was when he was also army chief. And - as the US has learned - President Musharraf also could not be pushed beyond a point. He mastered the art of saying "Ji Hazoor" - South Asian speak for "Yes Boss" while conceding the minimum in terms of concrete action.

• General Kiyani is not the "Ji Hazoor" type to begin with.

• On Pakistan, the Editor has found that the further away the US official from the action, the less grounded in reality is the official. Of course, this is true and has been true of any any situation one cares to name. The Americans on the ground - to use the trite phrase - are actually extraordinarily clued up. This goes for military, diplomatic, and intelligence personnel. By the time you hit the Embassy in Islamabad, the Americans are 50% in La-La Land. By the time you hit the "theatre HQ" it's 75% in La-La Land. And by the time you hit the top echelons in the Administration, Pentagon etc., its 100% La La Land.

• So honestly, we wish people would stop tell us "Oh, the Americans are so stupid and they don't understand anything." People should specify which Americans they refer to, The ones on the ground often know so much, they know more than the typical highly-informed home country person.

• And we wish people would understand that their country is not the center of America's universe. Often even the top people in Washington are aware of the realities, but they have to balance imperatives of 200 different countries. And, at that, that's easier than balancing the virulently partisan and one-agenda groups at home.

• It's not easy being King of the Hill.

• Israelis Kill 9 Hamas Militants says Jerusalem Post. Seven died when the Israelis counterattacked Hamas rocket-launcher squads, and two were killed in a fire-fight.

• Hamas' response? They launched 10 more rockets.

• The Israelis have every right to defend themselves. And so do the Palestinians. So, as we have said many times, there is going to be no end to this conflict.

• Nick Cook's "The Hunt For Zero Point" We've gone through the book once again, and the problem seems to be the author, not the subjects he is talking about. Attempts to tap "vacuum energy" and to shield gravity appear to be perfectly legitimate areas of scientific research. The US may be further along than it has revealed, but this of course is speculation. But it's all kosher stuff.

• The problem arises when the author - who is incredibly energetic, by the way - runs all around the world and all over place, and wants to share with us every speculation, however ill-founded, and because he has a tendency to say: "When I saw X I immediately knew he could be trusted" and we are asked to accept the author's intuition. We also really don't want to know that while he was eating a breakfast of boiled eggs and ham or whatever in some village somewhere or the other he was struck by some thunderous thought and had to immediately reach for his cell phone or book a flight to Bongistan or wherever.

• The reader is constantly being jerked like a puppet from theatre stage to theatre stage, and like Mr. Bill Clinton, being told for ten pages how interesting the author's thinking is, and then told "But enough about me" and then told in one page something about the matter at hand. The reader is so confused by this point that the simplest thing to do is - Occam's Razor in action again - is to say: "this gentleman is nuts" and throw away the book.

• For example, he spends time trying to build up a theory that the B-2 employs some form of gravity-shielding and makes us run around in circle after circle, suspecting everyone and everything, and just when the gullible person like your Editor is convinced "okay, there's a conspiracy", he'll calmly say "I realized I was wrong" in one sentence and bang, jumps to something else.

• In many ways the author is terribly naive. Look, we all know that the US Air Force has not uncovered a former black program since the 1980s. We all know twenty years have passed and several black projects must be underway at Groom Lake Area 51 because more and more buildings get added. If the author didn't know this, he must be about the last aviation expert who didn't. And we all know people involved in these projects can't talk about them. We know they are hiding things. If someone tells you: "The sun rises in the East" your reaction is to say "So?" And so it with much of the book. What is the big deal, mate? Tell us what you have learned, save the conspiracy theories for the Internet.

• The author does have his moments, such as when he discusses how the German SS took over the development of advanced weapons during the war, and how German scientists came up with some phenomenal ideas and developments. His point that the German scientists seemed to think in completely different ways to their western counterparts is thought-provoking and needs follow up.

• Incidentally, in the days of the Soviet Union when a centralized totalitarian government could fund any line of research without exposure to public scrutiny and without any economic justification, you also got hordes of scientists that came up with stuff that at that time might have seemed like science-fiction.

• If you are completely wrong about a line of research, it's legitimate to say: "I went off an a wrong path because (short description) and then realized I'd mad an ass of myself". But it's better not to bring up the matter in the first place. We all do 1000 pages of research and then have to discard all but 100 pages because the rest proves irrelevant. We can't all publish the entire 1000 pages.

• And people are interested in what the investigative writer learns and not his thought process. After all, no one wants to know what you ate for breakfast, how you went potty, and what brand of toilet paper you used.

• Letter On Ernie Pyle From Edwin Youngstrom True, the Japanese didn't have .30 cal. But they did have 7.7mm, which is pretty close!

• Editor's Note We're faced with two possibilities. First, that since the article on Mr. Pyle's dead specifically mentions .30 caliber, his death was friendly fire. Second, since the Japanese used 7.7mm machineguns, which are almost .30 caliber, his death was due to enemy fire, and due to some sloppy reporting or a journalist got things wrong, and 7.7mm got translated as .30 caliber.

• Either way, Mr. Pyle's death was a great tragedy, especially because he'd survived near four years of war. But then any premature death is a tragedy. Mr. Pyle, at least, will be remembered for generations and his work will be available for generations. For 99.99999 percent of us, nothing of us survives.

• The longest any of us lives in someone's  direct memory is 3-4 generations. For example, 10-year girl may keep the memory of her just-died grandmother fresh in her mind till the end of her days. But when she dies, her grandmother vanishes for ever.

0230 February 5, 2008

• Chad Agence France-Presse says that tens of thousands of civilians are fleeing the capital Ndjamena. The government claims to have completely routed the rebels. The rebels say they are waiting for civilians to leave before their final push. Other reports say the rebels are waiting for reinforcements.

• France says it will not militarily intervene without a UN mandate. We are unsure if the Security Council's non-binding statement calling on foreign governments to help Chad will satisfy the French. According to BBC, the French say they assume the government will make a request for foreign help and then Paris will evaluate the situation.

• While we readily concede the rebel alliance is scum, frankly we don't see how the current president and his supporters are that much better. The president staged a coup 17-18 years ago and is said to have won three elections since then. We are unsure what a Chad election represents in terms of legitimacy.

• Israel Suicide Bombing kills one civilian at Dimona, the town where Israel's N-reactor is located. Another bomber was killed by police before he could detonate his explosives.

• Israel is concerned that the bombers may have infiltrated into the country from the 250-km Sinai border after the Gaza-Egypt border barrier was breached.

• This is the first suicide bombing in over a year, the Israeli barriers having proved very effective.

• To get the details and background, read http://www.afp.com/english/news/stories/080204214550.vpdf7l8m.html

• Another Suicide Attacks Targets Pakistan Army in the garrison city of Rawalpindi, which is adjacent to the capital Islamabad. The target was a bus transporting Army Medical Corps personnel. Though the military says five personnel were killed, eyewitnesses say between 8-10 people were killed and the toll might be higher. [Sources: Jang of Pakistan and Frontier Post.]

• Letter On Ernie Pyle From Walter E. Wallis Since the Japanese had no .30 caliber weapons, I wonder if Ernie's death was friendly fire. I remember when the news broke.

Afghanistan/Pakistan

• Some readers have accused us of being alarmist about Afghanistan/Pakistan, and of viewing the situation through an Indian lens.

• We hope the article at http://www.military.com/NewsContent/0,13319,161263,00.html?wh=wh will convince some skeptics. The article is  behind the curve by several months, but because it's by an American in an American E-publication perhaps readers will be less inclined to question its credibility.

• The Editor personally would like to point out that he has at all time staunchly defended Pakistan's right to do what it needs to ensure its security and its right to have created/trained/armed/supported the Taliban from about 1994 to today. We don't think this is viewing through an Indian lens.

• Readers should not worry: the Editor had to leave home because the national security establishment disliked him to the point of trying to jail him to get him to shut up. Between leaving in 1989 and today, almost 19 years, the Indians have not shown the slightest interest in his warnings about China and the Taliban/Pakistan.

• Absence does not make the heart grow fonder, it makes the heart forget. Inevitably there is an entire generation of Indians in the national security establishment who think the Editor has vanished off the face of the earth, or given up his work to take up teaching, and in any case, he might have been amusing once, but what relevance does he have to what's happening - he hasn't been back in 19 years. The newspapers/professional journals refuse to print the occasional article he sends. And even little boys in short pants (this is an Indianism for children) who have not a single clue about - for example - how much logistic support an armored division needs, or the limitations of airmobile operations in contested airspace, or what the Pakistani defenses look like, have no hesitation in telling the Editor he doesn't know what he's talking about.

• In 1972, right after the Indio-Pakistan war, he warned that Pakistan was far from finished and would be back again. He was laughed at. India spent the next 30 years countering Pakistan.

• In the early 1990s he warned the agreements India had signed with China to reduce troop deployments in the Himalayas were a huge mistake. He was laughed at. Fifteen years later the Government of India has woken up to the Chinese threat and is running around like a duck with dark glasses in the middle of the night trying to figure out how to deal with the fox.

• Nothing to worry about, GOI: you merely lost 15 years and now it's going to take you ten years to get back to parity. Right now you cannot even figure out how to quantify the threat. May I remind you I quantified the threat in 1989 and not one person in authority bothered to read the assessment. Some years I quantified the threat again, I did not receive even one acknowledgement from any official they had received the assessment, let alone read it. In the last year I have offered on numerous occasions not just to quantify the threat, but to provide a kilometer by kilometer human reconnaissance of China's Tibet transport infrastructure. No one has bothered to reply.

• In 1996 the Editor warned his government about the Taliban and continued to warn the. The result? Polite silence from the few friends he has, derision from others.

• On the past few years he has repeatedly warned that Pakistan is becoming unstable in part because of extremism and in part because of the US. No acknowledgement; indeed one friend even went to the extent of saying: "for the sake of your credibility, please don't keep pushing this. Even your friends are wondering if you've gone batty in exile."

• I mention this long litany of complaints simply because I'd like readers to understand my nationality has nothing to do with what my colleagues,  correspondents, or myself write on Orbat.com.

• We have also been referring constantly to www.longwarjournal.org because (a) it happens to be accurate on  Pakistan/Taliban; (b) it is run by patriotic Americans. Naturally the blog will not agree that  Iraq is a mistake. It avoids criticism of the US. But if you don't want to believe us on how fast Pakistan is losing the war against its extremists, perhaps you'll believe the above Red-White-Blue blog.

• The US will in 2009 spend three-quarters of a trillion dollars on defense, not counting intelligence and Homeland Security. We've been saying for the last 18 months the US is losing the GWOT because of its Iraq obsession. We hope the military.com article opens some eyes.

0230 GMT February 4, 2008

• Chad if Agence France-Presse cannot give us a definitive account of what's happening in the Chad capital, no one can.

• On the one hand, the Government says it has defeated the rebels. On the other hand, the rebels say they have merely withdrawn to give civilians time to leave, and the President Idriss Deby was still holed up in his palace.

• On the one hand, the rebels admit there were driven from the radio/TV station by Chad government helicopters. On the other, eyewitnesses say the government troops ran out of ammunition and withdrew, the rebels occupied the place and also left.

• On the one hand the French have condemned the rebel attack; on the other on Friday they offered to fly the president out. He refused, but the real significance as far as we are concerned is that French forces have not intervened on his behalf beyond fly reconnaissance missions, and these are as much to aid their evacuation effort as anything else. The rebels are no slouches when it comes to fighting, but a half-battalion of French troops would send them packing in no time had France wanted to intervene.

• On the one had the Government says the offensive was carried out with the aid of Sudanese helicopters and aircraft; on the other, Khartoum denies any such involvement. The rebels are for sure aided by Sudan; at the same time, the rebel alliance is a wholly indigenous grouping fighting because the president has given patronage to his own clan at the expense of other clans - the usual situation in Africa.

• The matter of who controls Chad has become all the more contentious after oil has started to flow to the pipeline to Gabon.

• Gaza Egypt has closed the last breach in the Gaza border, but says that travel will be allowed for the sick and for students. It is unclear if others will be allowed for humanitarian reasons.

• Some sort of deal seems to have been worked out with Hamas because the latter has apologized to Cairo for the injuries suffered by Egyptian security forces.

• The Israeli Supreme Court has upheld the Israeli blockade of Gaza.

• Photo Of Ernie Pyle's Body Found Ernie Pyle was killed by a .30-calibre machinegun bullet striking him in the temple, just days after he arrived on Okinawa to cover the Japan War after spending four years on the European front.

• My. Pyle was at Ie Shima, a small island off Okinawa, on April 18th, 1945, with the 77th Infantry Division when he was traveling with three officers in a jeep that came under attack. The Army photographer who crawled under fire to photograph the body was told the picture could not be published. Now copies, but not the original negative, have been found.

• Mr. Pyle had a premonition of his death because after making it through four years in Europe he told others he did not expect to survive his Pacific tour. He could most honorably have gone home after VE Day but his admiration and love for  America's soldiers impelled him to the Pacific theatre.

• You can see the picture and story at http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-02/04/content_7563270.htm Mr. Pyle looks remarkably peaceful, as if he is only asleep. Clearly he was prepared to die.

• An Intelligent Article On The New US Approach To Central Asia The International Herald Tribune has a thoughtful analysis on how US policy toward the former Soviet Muslim republics has changed. To quote:

• "American policy has accepted less ambitious goals....Democracy promotion is not gone. But it has taken its place in a wider portfolio of interests. These include access to oil and gas, improving trade and transportation infrastructure and expanding military, counternarcotic and counterterror cooperation - all informed by a sense that in the competition with Russia and China for regional influence, the United States has lost ground."

• If you have time, read the article at http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/02/03/asia/uzbek.php

• Russian Ships To Stage Exercises Every Six Months says ITAR-Tass. We forgot to mention that the Russian North Sea Fleet recently conducted a major exercise in the North Atlantic and Mediterranean, the first significant exercise since the fall of the Soviet Union. The carrier Kuznetsov led 11 other warships and the exercise, which began on January 23, culminated in the Bay of Biscay.

• The fleet was supported by simulated strikes by land-based Bear and Blackjack bombers.

• We shed a few tears of gratitude at learning about the exercise. Thank you, Russia. You are the only hope in stopping NATO's atrophy. Please hurry up your rearmament program so that the West has a real adversary again. we realize it will be nothing like the good old days of the Cold War, but something is better than nothing. Right now, for example, you could put the entire Royal Navy in the Editor's bathtub and he wouldn't feel at all crowded.

0230 GMT February 3, 2008

• Chad Capital Falls To Rebels says Agence France Press. Large parts of Ndjamena were under their control yesterday morning and fighting had largely died down. The rebels, who are believed to be backed by Sudan, say they think the Chad president is in the surrounded palace. He is free to go, they say; they planned an attack for last night.

• BBC tells a different story. Quoting a French spokesperson, it says the rebels are being pushed back from the palace. But an eyewitness says he saw 30 tanks burning. If that's the sort of beating the Government forces are taking, there is going to be no pushing back

• So far, oddly, the French are doing little except issuing condemnations and preparing to evacuate their citizens. French troops have secured a hotel downtown where foreigners stay.

• We say "oddly" because the French say that the present government is the legitimate one and removing it with force is unacceptable. In previous rebel offensives French fighters have attacked rebels convoys moving on the capital - at least so the rebels say. This time they seemed to do nothing as 150 vehicles entered the capital. We'd have to be able to read French to have an idea of what's going on.

• Your editor studied French for 7 years before getting 394 out of 800 in the French SAT well over 40 years ago. The Editor's explanation that he was paying attention to the lovely teacher rather than his studies has not satisfied his youngest, who knows a bit about SATs. He says it is near impossible to get such a low score. Being a mathematician he doesn't used the word "impossible", but that's clearly what he means. All the Editor can say is in that case, only a genius could get 394. The Editor believes France could be a fantastic country if only one get get all the French to settle in - say - Chad.

• Meanwhile, it's official: the President of France has married his model/singer girlfriend of three months in a private civil ceremony in the presidential palace. This is his third marriage. Sarko seems even more ADHD than the Editor on the subject of women - this is not a compliment.

• Frankly, we found more interesting the news that 66-year old British actress Julie Christie has married her long-time boyfriend. One Julie Christie is worth ten of Sarko's girlfriends

• Kenya Violence Again says AFP, despite a Friday agreement for a peaceful settlement between the President and the opposition made under the auspice of Mr. Kofi Annan, former UN Secretary General.

• Kenya police say 47 have been killed in the latest violence. Part of the toll is because the police have been opening fire on rioters and people burning homes.

• US Navy Test Fires EMG Rail Gun The US Navy has tested its electromagnetic rail gun, firing a projectile at 2.5 km/second with a muzzle velocity of 10.64 megajoules. See  http://www.defensetech.org/archives/003978.html?wh=wh for more details and links, also http://www.onr.navy.mil/emrg/electromagnetic-railgun.asp at the Office of Naval Research site.

• The gun is probably still ten years from operational status of not more. Nonetheless, plans are that it will have a maximum range of 300-400 kilometers, redefining littoral warfare and surface warfare. Rail gun rounds require no powder or explosive. This not only vastly improves safety of ships, you can put 10,000 rounds in a magazine that today has 1500 rounds. The kinetic energy is such that a 5-inch shell will make a crater of 10-foot radius and 10-foot deep in the ground.

• It's interesting we went from guns to aircraft to missiles, and are now going back to guns. Just as the battleship admirals did not want to give up guns, the carrier admirals will not want to see a  reduction in their fleet. Realistically, however, it's hard to see how the US will maintain more than a 10-carrier force to the 2030s and 2040s, so ships with the new guns will help to greatly increase the Navy's firepower in the interim. Since the same principles can be applied to anti-aircraft and anti-missile guns, a major function of the carrier, providing air cover to the fleet could also become redundant. Though obviously we will see directed energy weapons for fleet air defense before we see the rail gun defense.

• Pakistan Ceases Fire To Negotiate With South Waziristan Insurgents says Bill Roggio, writing in http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/02/operations_in_south.php This may seem odd given the cease fire comes within 10-days of the start of the Pakistan Army's offensive to clear the area of insurgents once and for all. The Army says if no agreement is reacged, operations will be resumed. Our question is, why is the government engaged in any negotiations whatsoever? The Taliban have used previous agreements solely to build up forces and break the agreements. That talks are taking place means the Pakistan Army is finding the going not to its taste.

• Talks continue for an agreement for North Waziristan. If the agreement is signed, the same thing will happen: the Army will put out, the rebels will return, and grow stronger.

• We pride ourselves on seldom being astonished, but this story frankly does astonish us.  http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/02/01/asia/AS-GEN-Al-Qaida.php says that the North Waziristan missile strike which killed 12-13 Taliban/AQ leaders took place less than two kilometers from a major Pakistan Army base.

• If the Taliban/AQ can confidently meet in a conclave on the outskirts of a Pakistan Army base, it shows they have no fear whatsoever of the Army. It also proves points made by Major AH Amin the other day, that the Pakistanis do not have any meaningful intelligence of the insurgents and the security forces do not venture outside their bases.

• This is very bad news.

0230 February 2, 2008

• Germany Refuses More Troops For Afghanistan and says it will not shift its troops to the dangerous southern provinces. The US has either requested or demanded more German troops, depending on the source of the story.

• We've said before: time for the US to stop wasting energy on getting more troops from NATO. US should instead plan on most of the coalition troops withdrawing in the next two years.

• US has five alternatives. One is to raise additional troops itself. And none of this pansy business of - gasp! - six brigades. It has to be a minimum of six divisions, approximately 300,000+ troops.

• Second is to do what it takes to convince India to send several divisions to Afghanistan. That essentially means ending the US-Pakistan strategic partnership and making big concessions to the Indians. The Afghans will not accept Pakistani troops plus the Pakistanis are about to get seriously extended as their insurgencies multiply.

• Third is to cut Iraq forces down to 3 brigades and send 7 brigades to Afghanistan plus raise new forces.

• Fourth is to recognize the sad reality: America is not interested in fighting the GWOT if it means any real sacrifice for the country as a whole in the firm of a draft and higher taxes. As such, better to cut a deal with the Taliban and withdraw.

• Fifth is stick head in sand with butt in the air. To discourage casual passerbys from taking kicks, a warning emanating from the butt says: "We are the United States, the mightiest and greatest power there ever was. If you dare kick us, we will deliver a lethal Bean Belch and you'll be sorry."

• So, can't Orbat.com come up with a better plan for defeating our enemies than Bean Belches? Sure. We gave four other plans before the last one. Since facing reality is not something one associates these days with the US, Option Five is the most realistic.

• US Military Unprepared For Homeland Terrorist Attacks Reports like this one in yesterday's press make the Editor feel very sorry for himself. People get paid to make reports which in effect say: "The sun rises in the East every day"? And they get a ton of publicity which leads them on their next cushy job where they will conclude: "If you stand in the middle of the southbound lanes of Interstate 95, you are likely to get hurt"?

• Life is so not fair. No one offers the Editor such jobs. At times like this he regrets not having played life by the rules. When establishment types come up with these reports, they get money/fame. Were the Editor sufficiently demented to actually put out such a report, he would get roundly ridiculed for restating the obvious.

• There are two theories about why the US is still nowhere getting its act together to meet serious Homeland threats.

• Theory One: [Conspiracy types] The US knows it wasn't Al Qaeda who staged 9/11 and it knows there is no threat to the Homeland. So it doesn't bother prepare.

• Theory Two: [Orbat.com] When you ask a conspiracy theorist what then is the point about the US making such a hullabaloo about Homeland security, s/he answers "We need to create fake threats to keep paranoia levels high so that huge sums of money are spent on the Halliburton Complex."

• The problem is, if this is so, why not spend gazillions on Homeland security the way we are spending on Iraq? How does it help the Halliburton Complex if it gets to dip at the public trough only once (overseas wars) instead of twice (overseas and at home)?

• For this reason we have come up with our own theory. Using Occam's Razor, we can reasonably assume the threats to the Homeland are real, but as the world's mightiest banana republic, we can't get our act together even to defend ourselves.

• If that doesn't satisfy you, send us your own theory: but remember, it has to be even simpler than ours.

• Good definition from Wikipedia on the Razor: "The principle states that the explanation of any phenomenon should make as few assumptions as possible, eliminating those that make no difference in the observable predictions of the explanatory hypothesis or theory. The principle is often expressed in Latin as the lex parsimoniae ("law of parsimony" or "law of succinctness"): "entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem", or "entities should not be multiplied beyond necessity".

• The use of just two words -  lex parsimoniae - to encompass a profound principle is a perfect example of the Razor.

• US vs Italian Murder Rates Marcopetroni sends us a figure of 1 murder per 100,000 population in Italy. That compares to 5.6 for the US.

• Interestingly, in 1910 the US murder rate was also around 1. In the 1930s it went into the 8-10 range before falling. But in the 1970s it went back to the 8-10 range before falling again. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_murder_rate
   

0230 February 1, 2008

• Iraq Violence Down Again Agencies say according to figures released by the Interior Ministry, 466 civilians were killed in January 2008, about a fourth the number killed in January 2006. The figures are, of course, suspect. But if we say the Iraqis are downplaying the January 2008 figures, the same could be true of the January 2006. So whether or not the figures are accurate, the percentage reduction can be accepted as broadly correct.

• Meanwhile, the Sunni Vice-President says the Iraqi Presidency Council is unlikely to sign the bill reversing the de-Baathification policy because several thousand ex-Baathists who have already been reemployed will have to be forced aside to make room for those previously excluded.

• Further, Sunni ex-Baathists say they fear reprisals from the Shia if they come forward and accept public service jobs. One such revenge attack took place a few days in Baghdad when 4 members of a former Baathist were killed.

• If we may give a word of advice to the Administration: steer clear of these matters. You are not the colonizers of Iraq and you bear no responsibility for every wrong committed by Saddam and subsequently. No doubt you and yours are enjoying every moment of acting the Big White Father. these are terribly complicated matters and no matter how smart you are, you aren't smart enough. Let the Iraqis work it out for themselves.

• Iraq Oil Exports At Last Exceed Pre-2003 Invasion Total They have touched 2.4-million barrels/day, says Times London, mainly due to security improvements in the north, and the government is on track to boost exports to 2.6-million barrels/day by end-2008.

• The Iraqis say they hope to have production up to 6-million barrels/day in four years. This is a pipe-dream, no pun intended, for a number of reasons that have to do with equipment availability, corruption, and Iraq security.

• Nonetheless, if and when Iraq gets up to six million, it will be the world's second largest oil exporter and the US may have greater flexibility dealing with Saudi Arabia. We are not suggesting that prices will come down, but the US need not kiss Saudi rear ends as fervently as it does today. Anyway, this is all in the future. We'll see when we see.

• Pakistan Frontier Post says fighting continues for a sixth day around Dara Adam Khel. The strategic Kohat Tunnel is back in government hands, and minor damage is being repaired. Nonetheless, the Army is still controlling movement of civilians and continues to block access to several areas.

• Meanwhile, the Taliban seem to have vanished and no leader has been captured.

• Agency reports say the missile strike in North Waziristan targeted second- and third-tier Al Qaeda leaders. Locals say the 13 dead are all Arabs or foreigners. The Taliban have barred the locals from attending the funerals, something they never do if locals have been killed.

• Kenya: 2nd Opposition MP Killed The government says this was a crime of passion. The MP's girlfriend was also going with a police officer. The couple were in a car when the officer followed them and shot them both.

• The opposition says this was politically motivated murder. The government is killing opposition MPs to wipe out the slim majority the opposition has in Parliament.

• Astra/Aurora vs Black Delta Airships Our anonymous reader reminds us to differentiate between the fixed-wing, high-speed reconnaissance aircraft - Astra/Aurora - and black delta airships. When he said several consistent sightings of a delta shaped aircraft had occurred around Air Mobility Command bases, he was referring to the airships.

• We should have figured that out ourselves except the airship programs completely slipped our mind. US black aircraft programs are a specialized field we do not follow, so we often forget stuff we know.

• These airships are often seen at very low altitude, moving silently, sometimes with running lights, and usually described as being 200+ feet long. One could be a long-range heavy-lifter - and perhaps might be the reason the US has not bothered to develop follow-ons to the C-5 and C-17. Another, if we recall right from years ago, is an airborne radar. Imparting stealth characteristics to these airships might be a way to protect them. There is at least one report of a fisherman off San Francisco shooting at one when it came right over his boat and shone a search-light on him. He says as he was reloading a hatch on the underside opened and two people shouted at him to "Stop shooting at us, you idiot!" This particular airship carried at least one helicopter. Again, given the size of these things there is no reason they cannot carry several.

• From Walter E. Wallis What angered me off about the SR-71 is that they broke up the tooling so it would not compete with the F-111, just as they chopped up all the flying wings to eliminate Northrup from competition.