0230 GMT August 31, 2008
Pakistan Before readers accuse us of negligence in failing to cover Pakistan for some weeks, let us first admit that we haven't a clue as to what's happening and so have been unable to say anything worthwhile. The usual local news source present everyday a confusing picture of claims and counter-claims.
The Pakistan Army says, for example it has killed near 600 Taliban in operations, presumably during august. But the fighting seems to be spreading. Bill Roggio of www.longwarjournal.org follows the Taliban/Pakistan and says that another district, Hangu, has fallen to the Taliban. If you exclude the wild mountain country of Chitral, about half of the NWFP territory is now under Taliban control and two areas - Chitral itself and Kurram Agency - are now islands in the Taliban sea. Most worrying if you look at this map from Long War Journal is that NWFP's entire border with Afghanistan except Chitral and Kurram is in Taliban hands. They now have a contiguous stretch of land running north-south, and are in a good position to declare independence. To get to Chitral and Kurram, the Pakistan government has to cross Taliban control territory. It nay be only a matter of time before both fall to the Taliban: though there are many reasons why Chitral might not, it is not an important area.
By Taliban control we do not mean the Pakistan Army cannot operate/transit in these areas. We mean the writ of the Pakistan Government no longer runs. The Taliban do the policing, mete out justice, law down the laws, and are busy killing all opponents, be they tribal leaders allied with the government or independent, bureaucrats, and politicians.
Long War Journal informs that US intel sources say there are now 8,000 foreign fighters inside Pakistan. That excludes the Pakistan Taliban, who man number in the tens of thousands. apparently so many foreign fighters are flocking to Pakistan hoping to stage a repeat of the victory against the Soviets, this time against the Americans, that Bin Laden is urging foreign fighters to go to Darfur and Iraq instead. with the US leaving Iraq - whether it wants to or not - there is potential for AQ to reestablish itself in Iraq. As for Darfur: total chaos exists there and AQ will have happy hunting. A few well-directed attacks against African/UN peacekeepers and the latter will pull out, leaving the way clear for AQ to dominate.
Other Taliban achievements noted by Mr. Roggio is the reformation of AQ's 055 Brigade, which was wiped out in the initial fighting in Afghanistan 2001-02.
If this picture is insufficiently grim, the Pakistan Government has used the excuse of the month-long Ramadan to ceasefire in the NWFP - to give the locals a chance to pray. That is so pathetic an excuse that it makes us wonder if the Pakistan Army has had enough, or if there is a real offensive underway. For example, Pakistan army says it controls Swat, which was allegedly cleared out earlier in the year, but news reports indicate government institutions in Swat are non-functional.
Russia Throws a Bone On Georgia and says the Euros can send more observers to Georgia. Of course, we can take as given the observers will not be permitted to observe anything detrimental to Russia. Also, the Russians will want the observers to observe what Georgia does. We can take as given each time the Georgians do anything to assure their own interests, the Russians will complain loudly the observers are not doing their job etc etc etc.
Meanwhile, several Russian media sources say the Russians have signed off on an OSCE report to be published Monday which squarely puts the blame for the war on Georgia. So let's see what happens tomorrow.
Also meanwhile, President Putin says that its unreasonable to think Russia will move against Ukraine. Russia has long recognized Ukraine's borders, he says. Errrrr....President Putin, didn't Russia also long recognize Georgia's borders? don't mind us, but we find your statement to be no comfort.
0230 GMT August 30, 2008
Goodbye, South Ossetia: Can We Stop Talking about Georgia Now? Each time we try and shut up on Georgia, something else happens. Now Moscow announces that it will formally annex S. Ossetia, which will join N. Ossetia as a province of Russia. An agreement on Russian bases is to be signed Tuesday.
Opium Production Down In Afghanistan? The official figures say it is down from 8200 tons to 7700 tons. But the same UN report also says that that southern Afghanistan produces 90% of Afghanistan's opium, and here production is up 20%.
Now folks, you don't have to be a statistician or a mathematician to tell something is rotten in the Kingdom of wherever. You simply have to calculate a few figures. If the south produced 90% of last year's crop of 8200 tons, then the south produced 7380 tons and the rest of the country produced 820 tons.
So if the southern production went up by 20%, the south now produces 8856 tons. Even if the rest of Afghanistan produces zero opium - a claim no one makes - total production is up 8%, not down 6% as the report claims.
So perhaps the media reporting is messed up: we haven't seen the original report, but even the media is not so stupid that it looks at a report saying: "Opium production up" and then makes a story "Opium production down."
Officials says the "decline" is because of drought and a 10% fall in prices, and a 198% increase in wheat prices. we aren't going to comment on this till we see the report.
Meanwhile, another official says Afghan drug lords are making more money because they are refining more of the raw product into heroin; the corollary being they are exporting less opium. This is not helpful. Again, we'd have to do research because we are not up-to-date on the drug trade, but for now lets throw out some random figures. Say a drug lord makes $100 for a kilo of opium and $10,000/kilo for heroin, he's making 100 times as much money. So even if he buys a tenth of the opium he used to, he's making ten times as much money. The drug is a mainstay for the Taliban's financing.
News reports suggest that renegade chemists from several countries, including Russia and India, are working in Afghanistan.
There's nothing particularly complicated about the refining process if the chemicals required are available. They were, from Delhi's wholesale chemical market about 5-kilometers away. (The chemicals used, such as acetic anhydride, have perfectly legitimate uses.)
The editor has seen a lab in operation in a densely populated residential colony of New Delhi. The lab was located in the bathroom and the chemist dried the product on his balcony using an ordinary pedestal fan. He complained that his biggest problem came with the drying process. He lost a significant quantity of powder because it blew away, and the fine Muslin cloth he used as a mask let in too much of the powder, and in the rainy season the humidity delayed operations too much.
He requested the editor for advice; fortunately the editor, not being a chemist, had none to offer, though he dares say that given some thought he probably could have come up with a few ideas.
This conversation, a large cooking pot full of powder, the fan, the demonstration with the cloth mask and so on took place on the balcony with neighbors occupying balconies to the left and the right, up and down, and the balcony did not have a wall facing the street but a metal decorative fence so that everyone on the road who bothered to look up could see us. But this was India, and is a small example why people say you really have to live in India to see what life there is about, no one can explain it.
0230 GMT August 29, 2008
US Marines To Depart Anbar says the Marine Commandant. He says their job is done, the province is peaceful, the Iraq Army/Police are capable of doing their job, the Marines are not national builders but fighters, and he wants his men to deploy to Afghanistan where thre is a war to be fought.
The Commandant expects his men will hand over control of the province to the Iraqis within days and begin their pull-out. Approximately 25,000 Marines serve in Iraq.
Ethiopia Threatens Somalia Pullout saying it can no longer afford the financial commitment, and that the UN has failed to step-up up with money and troops. BBC says that also the Ethiopians are fed up with Somali infighting and this may be a ploy to concentrate Somali minds.
Equally, of course, this could be a ploy to concentrate the US/West's minds and persuade them to at least financially underwrite the Ethiopian peacekeeping force.
In our opinion, should Ethiopia withdraw, Somalia will fall quickly to the Islam Courts.
S. Ossetia Militia Ethnically Clearing Georgia Territory north of Gori. Georgians who fled the Russian advance and then returned in the wake of the ceasefire are again fleeing because S. Ossetia forces are killing people who won't leave, and burning down houses.
It appears to us that the Russian security zone will encompass all of Georgia north of the Poti-Senaki-Gori-Tbilsi highway; in other words, the entire northern half of Georgia.
Argentina-Brazil-France Collaboration For Nuclear Submarines The two Latin countries will develop the propulsion reactor while France will focus on the hull. A 12+ year timeframe is foreseen for the first unit to commission. [The news is from www.aviationnow.com]
Afghan Air Bomb Tonnage Increasing Exponentially and is up about 4-times over 2007. NATO is at pains to point out that the Afghan War is being fought by two separate armies. One is the Coalition, and the other is an independent American force. It says that most of the bomb tonnage is dropped in support of the independent force, and here the majority of sorties flown are in support of US Special Forces teams which have become progressively more aggressive as the Taliban resurge.
Well, that explains a good deal because SF teams are small, typically 10-14 men; they operate as bait; and as such when they get into trouble air strikes are the only practical way to get them out. If they waited for ground reinforcements, even if these are flown in by helicopter, you could have one quite dead SF team before you get there.
Readers should keep in mind that even the so-called Quick Reaction helicopter operations have to be planned very, very carefully: you don't want your reinforcing troops and helicopters to get into trouble because of terrain issues and because the enemy is waiting with bated breath for your arrival.
An SF team that has walked into a Taliban village and is under fire cant not afford to wait 4-, 6-, 12-hours for help. That help has to come within 30-60 minutes or its all over. That means strike aircraft already airborne and waiting for a call. Intelligence is likely to be incomplete or just plain wrong in such situations.
Add to that that in Afghanistan, US air forces are using 2000-lb bombs instead of the 250-lb ones favored in Iraq to reduce collateral damage, you are going to get a lot of civilian casualties.
NATO/US sourly note that the Taliban have become expert in luring air strikes to hit civilians and on tutoring the civilians to say the right things when the press/authorities appear.
Okay, but do you just repeatedly fall for the Taliban traps or do something else? Seems a bit odd and unproductive to blame the enemy for being smarter than you'd like.
0230 GMT August 28, 2008
Georgia Much confusion as to what's going on because the Russians keep withdrawing, then showing up again, or popping up at different places altogether far removed from any rational consideration of security for S. Ossetia/Abkhazia. If the idea is to keep everyone guessing, the Russians are succeeding.
In any case, it is hardly legitimate to assure the security of two breakaway regions by occupying places in the undisputed regions. Bit like the US saying: "We need to occupy positions in Syria and Iran to stop infiltration into Iraq, and in North Korea to protect the ROK".
If S. Ossetia/Abkhazia mean that much to Russia, annex them and station the Russian military there without the farce of "peacekeepers" and so on.
Perhaps we will soon learn what is the Russian game.
Russia Threatens Naval Confrontation In Black Sea This blog tries to be fair in that we clearly state our own bias and then look at a given issue from both sides. Our bias re. Georgia is that the West needs to bring this country into its defensive alliance system.
That said, suppose tomorrow a bunch of Russian Navy warships appeared in the Gulf of Mexico on the pretext of delivering aid to Cuba, right after US and Cuba have had a showdown. Is the US going to be pleased? We don't think so. So we don't think it right to condemn Russia for freaking about western warships in the Black Sea.
That said, we think the Russians know perfectly well why the US is using military ships to deliver humanitarian supplies to Georgia and not civilian warships. Its relatively simple to fly supplies to an allied naval base in or around the theatre, load a warship or two or three with supplies, and send it to deliver the goods, compared to chartering civilian ships.
Its also less likely the Russians will interfere with US Navy warships than with civilian ships. If civilian ships arrived off the Georgia coast, there is a definite possibility of the Russians refusing to let the ships dock. They cannot do that to US Navy ships without in effect declaring a state of war.
And another consideration: military forces are well-suited to relief work because of their discipline. a small example. After the December 2005 tsunami, in Indonesia US Marines and other troops worked 18 hours days and lived right on the runway of a military base at which they had arrived, among the debris, the water, and the dead people/animals all around. The civilian relief agencies meanwhile were just starting negotiations on proper places for their workers to live. And a proper place for a civilian aid worker is quite a bit more comfortable than what a military person finds acceptably comfortable.
There is no need for confrontation in the Black Sea if the Russians want to avoid a confrontation. US/Western warships are doing their best to stay out of the Russian way. For example, ships that were to go to Poti have instead gone to Batumi because the former is occupied by the Russians. Of course, as Times London reports, the possibility that the Russians have mined the sea approaches to Poti is likely also a big consideration. But if the west wanted confrontation, it would have sent minesweepers covered by warships to clear the waters.
As for the Russians saying: "How do we know you aren't covertly bringing in weapons?", for gosh sakes, why should the west send weapons covertly? When it starts to rearm Georgia, as it has to and will, it will send weapons openly.
Now only one condition exists under which the Russians would have a right to be concerned about covert weapon shipments. That would arise if they declared all of Georgia an exclusion zone.
But under what authority could they do that? The No-Fly Zones in Iraq were created/maintained under UN mandate. Okay, so everyone knows the US beat everyone over the head with baseball bats until they voted the way the US wanted, but still, the UN mandate was more than just a fig leaf.
The Russians could declare a Georgia exclusion only under one condition: " we have occupied Georgia to protect the security of our allies, and we will continue to occupy for as long as we deem neccessary." The Russians cant say "Georgia is a sovereign nation, yes, but we will stop it from doing what it wants.
Of course, for the Russians to be this blatant is probably more exposure than they want. The Russia Bear is recovered from his deathbed, but he's still as weak as a 3-month old cub. Three, five, ten, twelve years down the line, things will change, but the Bear has not reached the military power he enjoyed when he invaded/occupied Afghanistan.
0230 GMT August 27, 2008
The Empire Strike Back
Moscow Order Foreign Ministry To Start Establishing Diplomatic Relations With S. Ossetia/Abkhazia...
...And Says if the West Wants Another Cold War, the Russians are Ready
Neither headline needs analysis. This and the following story are from Times London
Russian Kabul Ambassador Says Transit Deal Is Dead As the security of the Coalition land supply route became shakier with each passing month thanks to the trouble in Pakistan and the increasing control of the Taliban in the East/South of Afghanistan, Coalition reached agreement with Moscow for an alternate route through Russia and Turkmenistan.
Now the Russian ambassador in Kabul says the deal is dead. NATO is waiting word from Moscow on the situation.
Let's be honest, you can't threaten Russia with NATO on the one hand and then ask Russian help in furthering a NATO mission in Afghanistan.
Letter From Reader Ted Thomas
I offer a simple solution to all the problems in nations surrounding Russia. In each country, at their request and expense, we the US stations one battalion. Just one… with the understanding that this battalion is there for the joint defense of that country and will fight if that country is attacked.
Should Russia choose to attack… then they are a war with the US, not the other way around.
How much different would the ‘war’ in Georgia have gone with just US air support? What kind of support would we give our troops in that position?
This forward basing, ‘trip wire’ was used and worked for over 50 years in Korea and Germany… it should work yet again.
Editor's Comment The problem in stopping Russia was not one of military force but of will. US could easily have sent a battalion from the alert brigade of the 82nd Airborne Division to Tbilisi in under 36-48 hours and airpower was also available from Turkish bases. Fighter aircraft from West European bases could have been action over Georgia is less than 12-hours.
The problem is will. The Russians have made clear for several years that any Georgia attack on S. Ossetia would invoke an immediate Russian response. Further, it is impossible to believe this attack caught America by surprise so that there was nothing to be done to stop the Georgians. There are ~150 American advisors in Georgia, plus several agencies routinely monitor communications in the region. Georgia has been doing its level best to win acceptance from NATO after winning the US's Seal of Good Housekeeping. It strains credulity to believe that Georgia just woke up one morning and decided to eject foreign forces from S. Ossetia that evening.
One US media source has vaguely referred to "intelligence failure." Sorry. We don't buy it.
What this all means we are in no position to speculate, but both the Russian buildup and the Georgia preemption can have come as no surprise to US/West.
Had US wanted to do anything to stop the Russians, it could have done so at any time. But the US did not want to.
And as for European NATO, the Germans, French, Italians - three of the Big Four in the EU - were opposed to Georgia's membership in NATO precisely because they did not want to be called on should exactly what happened happen.
US airpower has been invincible for the last 20 years and is likely to continue so for some more time. But that airpower has to operate off European bases; B-2s flying directly from Whitman AFB have to transit European airspace; most cruise missiles have to do the same. The only power the US could bring to bear would have been naval and Marine units operating through the Black Sea, but even here there are problems with passage through the Dardanelles should Turkey oppose action against Russia.
The US has so thoroughly run down its global deployment capability since the end of the Cold War, and diverted so much of its depleted resources to Iraq that the US is not really in a position to undertake a major operation elsewhere without consent of its allies.
The problem is not just getting the Europeans on board to counter a Russian strike at Georgia, it is also the Russians can retaliate using their still considerable arsenal of short, medium, and long-range land attack missiles. No one, absolutely no one, except us old time hard-line anti-communist types has any wish to confront Russia, leave alone fight Russia.
As for putting a battalion in each threatened country: that means going back to Massive Retaliation, when US forces were really a tripwire. But bit by bit the US saw the flaws in the policy and changed to Flexible Response. That meant 10 Army divisions, a marine division, 20 fighter wings, and six attack carrier battlegroups ready to fight in Europe in 30 days. I'm ready to pay more taxes if the President calls me to so do to fund another buildup. I live paycheck to paycheck like half this country, and I am already cut back to the bone. If, however, I have to sacrifice more, I will do it. How many other Americans will agree to do the same?
And for myself, let me be absolutely frank. If to defend Georgia or the Baltics or Poland or Ukraine or whatever the US Government tries to draft my youngest child, there is going to be trouble. I don't care who or what the US Government is, I will not let them take my youngest, who is the only male member of my family under 36 (he turns 22 today) I will resist by any means neccessary. US Government can certainly punish me all it wants, but it will not, repeat not, get my kid. They can have me if they want: heck, I'll volunteer, at 65 I am in good health and if its a question of guarding a railway bridge or unloading trucks or whatever I can still do my duty. But my kid? Not even over my my dead body.
If there is a direct threat to the US tomorrow, I will be the first to make sure my son arrives at the recruiting station, followed by myself. That is something else altogether.
Let's be honest with ourselves: how many Orbat.com readers, of those who have boys or girls of military age, think any differently from myself?
Washington should have figured things out before it started poking sticks at the sick old Russian Bear, and before its self-destructive energy policies provided the dollar infusions to revive the Bear. The Bear promises that Georgia is just the start.
I don't know about anyone else, but I believe him.
0230 GMT August 26, 2008
Russian Duma Calls For Abkhazia, S. Ossetia Independence after the two Georgia breakaway regions petitioned the Duma. The vote was unanimous. The resolution is non-binding.
Western diplomatic sources are saying any move by Russia to accept independent status will harm Georgia's territorial integrity. US says independence is unacceptable.
Errrr - pardon us, but didn't Russia say the same when the west brought Kosovo to independence? And when Russia protested, remind us someone, the West did exactly what?
Trouble Over Civilian Deaths In Afghanistan
We've said repeatedly that the US/NATO must drastically reduce air strikes when any danger exists to civilians. As the Taliban have stepped up their operations, so has US/NATO stepped up air strikes. Inevitable results: large number of civilians are being killed.
The situation is so bad Afghan ministers have called for a review of foreign forces current unhindered ability to order air strikes, aggressive house searches, and detentions. The ministers want closer cooperation with the Afghan military and an end to unilateral action.
Ironically, the latest outcry has arisen over the death of 90 civilians, mainly women and children, in an air strike launched against a house where Taliban was meeting - but the strike was called in by the Afghans. An Afghan major and the corps commander have been dismissed for negligence.
Look, folks: there is absolutely no point to US/West trotting out its standard lame horse excuse for these civilian casualties: "We are confident we struck the right target and the enemy is to be blamed for its heartless behavior in fighting from within civilians."
First, don't all insurgents fight from within the civilian population? What do you expect them to do, challenge the US/West to a clean battle at a designated site cleared of civilians?
Second, Afghanis no longer accept the Coalition as a benign force come to help them. Again and again you will hear the Afghans say: "The Americans (all white troops are called Americans) say they came to help but they are killing us". The Afghans are perfectly aware the Taliban fights from among civilians. But they expect a higher standard of behavior from the west.
Third, lets take a simple analogy. It it is 2088 and Texas is gripped by an insurgency aimed at freeing the state from the Union and bringing it into Mexico. Ninety percent of Texans want to stay in the United States. An insurgent leader is meeting with his subordinate commanders in a small town in a house that is squarely in a civilian neighborhood, the house is situated between the crowded market and the local school. Moreover, house itself belongs to a insurgent sympathizer, his entire joint family of 30 lives in the compound. US receives information the insurgent leader and his commanders are in the house. He is not the top insurgent, merely another of one hundred important field commanders. Does the USAF immediately launch a "precision" strike, and announce it has killed 30 insurgents whereas it has killed five insurgents and 90 civilians?
Obviously not. We expect the USAF to have complete respect for American civilians, so why cannot US show the same respect for Afghan civilians?
Ah, some will say, who knows when we'll get the chance to strike such a target again? If we hadn't acted the insurgents would have had their meeting and escaped.
Yes, they would have. But as the counter-insurgent, it is your moral duty to wait till you have a clear shot, and if you don't get the clear shot, you simply have to wait till you do. Insurgencies are not all-out wars.
How many of us remember that ten thousand French civilians were killed in the Allied air offensive that preceded/accompanied Operation Overlord in 1944? Have you ever heard the French crying for trials of American/British commanders for war crimes? Has the average French person done anything other than give grateful thanks to the Allies for liberating their homeland? The answer is no. The French people knew the Allies were doing what they could to avoid targeting civilians, and they would have to pay a price for getting their country back.
The Afghan people want the west to help free them of the Taliban. But not to the extent they would rather be dead than live under the Taliban. The Afghanis will be asking the same question we will, phrased differently: "If it is neccessary to destroy this village in order to save it, could we politely ask you not to save us?"
The life of each Coalition soldier is precious. By striking that house instead of relying on ambushes and ground operations where you withhold fire if you may hit a civilian, the Coalition undoubtedly saved the lives of 3, 5, perhaps even 10 Coalition soldiers. But the Afghans are saying, "you cannot put an infinite value on the lives of your soldiers, and zero value on the lives of our people."
That's not so hard to understand, is it?
Cambodia was perhaps the most egregious example of what happens when you decide you have to kill the enemy at all costs, and it is not a war of survival. We agree in retrospect it is hard to be definitive about what really happened, but people have done research that shows the people of Cambodia were no supporters of the Communists. But the constant indiscriminate rain of American bombs over wide swathes of their country turned them against America, and the Communists exploited this to defeat America in Cambodia. The bombing offensive may have killed 50,000 or more Communists - we don't think the figures are known with any certainty. But how many civilians also died? And what profit the US to kill 50,000 Communists and lose Cambodia?
In this particular case, your Editor can moralize. The Indian Army has been fighting a 20 year insurgency in Kashmir. The death toll of Indian soldiers, especially officers, as compared to insurgents has been horrendous. But the minute the Indian army receives word an insurgent band of five or 10 is holed up at Hut X in Village Y, it does not order an air strike, an artillery strike, or a gunship attack. It gets to the village, and takes the house in close combat. It loses a lot of officers and men, and yes, civilians do get caught in the crossfire and do get killed. But a whacking great number of civilians are NOT killed. If you talk to any Indian soldier and ask "why are you risking your life like this, particularly when the majority of the population in these villages anyway supports the insurgents?" the invariable answer is: "The people may be misguided but they are our people. We must try to save their lives even at the cost of our own."
Isn't it time the Coalition started thinking of the Afghans as "our people"?
0230 GMT August 25, 2008
Georgia
We aren't sure why we are going back to Georgia, we'd pretty much foretold what would happen and its happening. Perhaps we need to go back because the west is having one of its "youse dirty rate betrayed us" moments, whereas the sad reality is the Russians, whatever else they have done, have not betrayed the west.
The ceasefire document they signed was at the west's insistence, not at theirs; they kept saying in as many ways as possible they were not going to leave Georgia and that Tbilisi can forget about South Ossetia and Abkhazia and so on and so forth, so what part of the Russian position did the west not understand?
Instead of blaming the Russians, maybe the west needs to blame itself for not believing the other guy when he says straight out, I'll do this but not this.
The short and the shorter of it is that the Russians have withdrawn from some areas like Gori city proper and Senaki, but they insist they are going to maintain a presence in the port city of Poti, and that Russian "peacekeepers" are going to stay in Georgia to assure the security of the breakaway zones. And the Russians have begun their heavy duty effort to subvert the pro-west government and replace it with a pliable pro-Moscow government.
The more the west has threatened, the more Moscow has sneered, and it should. There is nothing so pathetic as a bunch of high living jackasses so out of shape a 3-year old girl could whip their sorry behinds, making threats against Moscow. Whatever sympathy Orbat.com may have had for the west has evaporated not even so much as because the west failed to act, it is still pushing hot air through all orifices at a rate that bodes ill for any hope of stopping climate change.
More to the point would be discussion on how the west is going to strengthen the air, sea, and ground defenses of the Baltics, Poland, Ukraine, Georgia and so on against the next time the Bear gets a serious case of the munchies. Lets hear where the tanks, SAM systems, air defense interceptors, missile gunboats are going to come from instead of yapping annoyingly at the Bear's heels.
You dont want to get involved in a direct war with Russia, fine, that's a legitimate objective. But then be prepared to start laying out the $100-billion for arms that the front-line states will require to hold off Russia on their own - that's just a back-of-envelope guess on our part, and we are NOT talking about buying M-1s at $10-million each and Typhoons at $100-million each and missile gunboats at $300-million each. If that's what we are talking about, try multiplying the estimate we made by a factor of 5-10.
Lets be clear that if tomorrow the Russians decided they wanted to take the Baltics, given six months prep time, they could take the three countries in 72-hours, and what is NATO going to do about it?
The Baltics have three light infantry brigades and a reserve brigade - total. This is a force even weaker than Georgia fielded. Where are the NATO troops to fight the Russians? The only ones with the guts to fight are the Americans, but where are the ground forces required to stop a Russian army of 3-4 divisions?
Oh, we get it, stupid us: The US will use airpower to stop the Russians, nothing so messy as slugging it out on the ground.
Let's consider a rather simple scenario: Russia tells Western Europe: you let a single US plane take off from your airbases, and we're going to charbroil you with our SS-20s. Russia makes not one threat against the US.
So what do you think is going to happen, particularly when the Russians say: "We only want our old provinces back and we want Eastern Europe to demilitarize. West of the old Inner German Border, you all do what you want."
We think its very likely west Europe will tell the US: "all your aircraft are grounded and you cannot overfly our territory with your carrier air groups or your long-range bombers, and if you start firing cruise missiles, we're going to declare neutrality and kick you out."
Now replay this scenario. It is 2013, and instead of an army of 3-4 divisions the Russians have four armies with 15 divisions. The threat is then not just to the Baltics but to Ukraine and Poland, no nukes need to be fired. Lets go to 2018, and the Russians have rebuilt their air defenses, and have 10 fighter wings and 10 air defense missile brigades to throw into the fary. What is the west's reaction then?
And obviously, it need not come to war. Just as the Russians did not have to go to Tbilisi to set the stage for the overthrow of the pro-western lot in Georgia, they simply have to threaten. Back in Germany, Italy, France, Spain etc there will be such a rush for the toilets that the sewer systems will collapse.
So lets stop threatening, and start acting. US needs to federalize at least heavy Guard divisions and reinforce Western Europe, and NATO needs to provide the Baltics and Ukraine with money so that they can start preparing tank heavy forces that pose a credible deterrent to the Russians.
So you know exactly what's going to happen: Western Europe is not going to agree to any step up of armaments and defense preparedness or a muscular policy of confronting the Russians nose-to-nose. So what does the US do then?
Well, that answer is easiest of all. Pack up and go home, and let the Europeans figure it out. If they call for help, see if it is in America's interest to intervene, then intervene. The Euros are big boys and girls now. If they wont defend themselves, the US is under no obligation to do their job for them. They have a population and GDP larger than that of the US. This is not 1946 when the US had to do the job because the Euros were completely beaten down.
0230 GMT August 24, 2008
The Awakenings
CPT Jason E. Cannon
Nemesis 6, 4/2 SCR
I am just south of Baquba in Diyala and have been working to make my Awakening Sunni and Shia mixed. There has been success at this and we have used it as a stimulus to get displaced persons back. The jobs have helped grease the reconciliation. We have had hundreds of people return in the last few months.
I also got the leaders used to taking directions from the Iraqi Army, knowing what was likely to come. I am a Stryker Cavalry Troop Commander-95 troopers. In my AO I work with an IA Battalion, a National Police Battalion, and four police stations and have 2100 SOIZs on the payroll. I live in the same BLDG with the IA BN CDR, the NP BN CDR, the JCC, and the police district CDR. This has all been fundamental in nearly eradicating the violence in Khan Bani Sa'ad.
I am just trying to make the SOIZs as palatable to the Government of Iraq as possible. If the Iraqi ground commanders want them, I am hoping they will survive in some form. My best council leader was just hired as a LTC in the police and is doing fantastic. It isn't all perfect. I have had two leaders arrested on old local warrants. The police now feel secure enough to serve them. One was released (case thrown out) and am working on the other.
Editor's Comment
Can't help thinking if this young officer's generational predecessors in Second Indochina had been trained and allowed to show the same degree of initiative, the outcome would have been quite different. For some years after the US Army went into Gulf II, I deluded myself by thinking: the field officers - and even some of the division commanders - are absolutely outstanding. One day soon they will be generals and then hopefully that will be the end of the crass stupidity the US Army continues to show at its upper levels.
No sooner than did I express that thought to several informed types, and they squashed me. The Army - and the Air Force are still set up to force young innovators out of the service ASAP; the selection process continues to push upward officers who are destined to fail should operations of any sophistication be required. The US Army and Air Force function beautifully in an old-fashioned bang-up, or what the editor calls the "straight-up-the-middle-and-kill-them-all" theory of warfare, where you go after the enemy with the intent to wipe him off the face of the earth in the shortest time possible. No one is better at this type of warfare than the Americans. But the minute you introduce any degree of subtlety, you can basically forget it.
Now, of course, most armies are that way - dare we say all armies are that way, and that perhaps the US Army is still better than others in respect to its senior officers. We mustn't forget an army is a mechanism constructed to push forward to its objective while the enemy is tearing great big holes in the organization. For this you require a very narrow focus, a sheer bloody-mindedness to get the other fellow even as he cuts off large parts of your body. Its easy to say "the US Army/Marines/Air Force should have fought Second Indochina differently", but if you're talking about that war's Phase III, which was a pure conventional war in which the US had the firepower advantage but was almost always outnumbered at point of contact in the first 72 hours of battle, no subtlety works. Indeed, if you are a subtle officer, you may well lose the battle.
Two of the best examples of this are the 1st Cavalry's epic battle at the Ia Drang and the Marines' equally epic defense of Khe San. Let's be frank: if the officers and men were thinking types, the outcome would have been disaster. Its akin to someone bigger and stronger than you getting you in a head grip, and then repeatedly slamming you with his free fist. All all the books on warfare you've studied, all the post-graduate degrees you've earned, all the articles you've written in professional journals, all the multinational liaisons/diplomacy you've conducted, will not save you from being killed unless you have that single-minded ability to fight back not matter how badly you are hurt, and fight back to win.
So what is that we are saying here? No, we are not contradicting ourselves when we say American generals are blockheads but you need blockheads in the military. You see, it all depends on the type of war you are fighting. The precise same qualities/blindnesses that led the US to thoroughly chew up one of the strongest armies in the world in 1991 were certain to create a huge mess in Gulf II. You need two armies, and of course, there is no way anyone can have that.
The nature of war being what it is, you are almost guaranteed to go into the next war trained for the last one. A lot of amateurs laugh at the military's predilection for the "last war" thing. They need to understand that war is learned hands-on, not in schools, and they need to understand that when you establish dominance in one way of fighting war, you have inevitably set yourself up so the enemy has to try another way if he has any chance of winning. And because military organizations are so unbelievably complex and expensive, no one can possibly train for all possible future contingencies. And after the continuing debacles on Wall Street at the hands of the so-called Masters of the Universe, maybe we should start wondering these so-called brilliant civilians are.
I am sometimes amazed at how blithely civilians talk of military people as having some kind of mental retardation and how blithely they assume they can run rings around military people when it comes to competence.
My standard answer to these people is: "Here is the US Army manual for tank platoon commanders. The typical platoon leader is 20-24 years of age. Now let's have a little test. Why don't you memorize all 400 pages of this manual, and memorize it to the point you can flawlessly execute its instructions while the enemy is bombing you from the air, his artillery is trying to kill you, his infantry is infiltrating forward to get between you and you supporting mechanized squads, the bridge you have to rely on for your advance is lying at the bottom of the river, you have 30 rounds per tank because the supply column to top you off got blown to pieces, you have less than half the fuel you need, your tanks need three days just to fix all the wear and tear they've taken, you havent slept for three days, your company commander's been killed and your communications are being jammed, you've got these 15 tankers who are depending on you, and all the time you know if you make one mistake, just one mistake, either they or you or both are going to be dead.
Lets also stipulate that your tank's gunner has a crushed hand because due to extreme fatigue he didn't move fast enough to get out of the way of an ejected shell casing, and that you yourself have caught cluster bomb pellets down your front when you were attacked from the air, and you are working half drugged with pain killers. And let's also make this night. After you prove you can do all that is needed, and not just survive, but also defeat the enemy, then let's have this same discussion how military people are so stupid."
The upshot of all this is that there is no doubt at all that after 5 years the US Army is mastering all the very complex nuances of a multiple-participant insurgency and nation-building, but please don't be surprised if the next war is quite different. Hint: did anyone foretell Georgia? I certainly didn't.
BTW, there is a lot of misunderstanding on the part of the Americans about their performance in Gulf I. People seem to think because Saddam's military was not first rate, it was a cheap victory. I can assure you that had the US been fighting the Soviets in Germany, the result would have been exactly the same. Yes, it would have taken 40 days and not four, and yes, 25,000 soldiers would have been killed and not 250, but the end result would have been the same: the Soviets would have been utterly crushed. That particular army was so superbly trained for large scale armored warfare that no one could have won against it. A rare case of an army perfectly trained for the next war. The irony is that the US Army turned its back on insurgency warfare after 1975 and focused so intently on the Europe scenario that it was so totally ready for Gulf I. But then look what happened in Gulf II.
0230 GMT August 23, 2008
As usual, the Editor is in several time zones and has his days mixed up. We haven't skipped an update, yesterday's should have been dated August 22.
Orbat.Com On Iraq Withdrawal: No Comment We're not quite sure why the media is mislabeling what's happening in Iraq on the status of forces. There is no agreement at all, only a sort-of-understanding between US and Iraqi negotiators. Even this agreement has many ambiguities and sharp corners. Nothing is final till the Iraq parliament signs off. And its not final even then: the next parliament can change its mind. Iraq is not the US, where there is continuity of treaties. So that is why we haven't been commenting on the issue.
Meanwhile - What A Surprise - Baghdad Turns against Awakenings There is is a great inevitability about news from Iraq because the US, by sheer force of will and money and resources has been doing certain things that go completely against Iraq's grain, and you already know the minute the US relaxes the pressure things will revert to their natural self.
So it was with the Sunni Awakenings. A terrific idea which the US should have implemented from the start by not alienating the Sunnis, the Awakenings have played a major part in defeating AQI and in turning around areas previously absolutely hostile to the US. Congratulations all around.
The problem is obvious. No Shia government will agree to strengthening Sunni militias. This is not a complicated thing, and we believe that just about every American official/officer in Iraq understands the issue. But somehow the top Americans, detached from reality as usual, have been thinking they can "persuade" Baghdad to say green is blue and red is yellow.
Well, no joy. As a consequence of Iraqis increasing taking the lead in combat operations, you are seeing Awakening leaders being arrested or in the best situation, simply not given money to pay their men.
Okay, all that the US needs to do is to accept it is not going to run Iraq as its colony for the next hundred years. US went to Iraq to free the people from tyranny. The mission was magnificently accomplished by mid-June 2003. US should have left all the state structures intact and bid farewell, leaving Iraqis to sort out things. As they are going to do anyway.
The shut-down of the Awakenings is not a defeat for the US. The tactic worked excellently - AQI is out of the picture more or less and the Sunnis are no longer fighting the US in most parts of Iraq.
It will become a defeat only if Americans perceive it as such. Once Americans accept they have done the job, and it is not their business if Iraq messes up, they will see the matter in correct perspective.
And sort out is what the Iraqis are going to do. Sunnis will either lives as second class citizens, as Shias once did, or they will have to leave. One way or the other, you'll have a stable Iraq. Wont be the Iraq the US wanted. Every time that thought gives Americans palpitations, they need to take a deep breath and repeat: "We...are...not...colonizers. We...defeated...the tyrant...now...its...for...the...Iraqis...to...make...their...country....work." Is that difficult?
An Example of How The Iraqis Are Going Their Own Way US vision for Iraq Army was a three division light force. Iraq is already planning on 20+ divisions, and is heavying them up. Why would anyone assume they would do otherwise? They live in a neighborhood where everyone except the Iranians are enemy, and beyond a point Iran too becomes an enemy.
What you are going to see 10 years from now is an Iraq Army far more powerful than the pitiful machine Saddam fielded in 2003. And now that Iraq has money, has learned many things from the US, and can get advice from anywhere in the world, you can bet the 20+ divisions will be more capable than Saddam's 40 or so from 1991.
So a prime objective of US policy will fail, that of disarming Iraq so that it is no threat to Israel and the region's Sunni regimes. Is Orbat.com worried? Not a bit. If a goal is completely unrealistic, why should we consider the failure to reach the goal to be a failure? And insofar as America needs lessons in humility, and needs to understand you cannot go into another country and tell the people there what to do and what is in their interest and what is not, you can consider the matter of rapidly rearming Iraq to be a good lesson for America.
0230 GMT August 21, 2008
Chill, Dudes & Dudettes: It's Just The Government Lying To Us Again So for the better part of this year the Commodities Trading Futures Commission has been looking straight into the nation's eye and swearing that the run-up in oil reflected supply/demand and not speculation. Now that it has been forced by Congress to tell the truth, it has "suddenly" discovered that just 4 firms trade one-third of oil futures and that as far as anyone can tell, none are users of oil or trading on behalf of users. The CFTC has also discovered - it is doubtless shocked, shocked, that one company in July held 11% of oil futures and this company - Oh My Gosh! - does not actually represent oil users as the poor, innocent, CFTC thought.
A bit of background, for which we thank the Washington Post - just because we hate the paper and US mainstream media in general does not mean we cannot acknowledge when it/they do a good job. Till 1991, generally you could not trade commodity futures unless you had a direct interest in the product. So an airline could trade, but a speculator could not, The idea was to smooth out price swings and to ensure that the futures market did what it was supposed to, hedge against price uncertainties of price. Then starting in 1991 the rules were changed so that anyone with the money could trade. Investment funds in 2003 held $13-billion in commodity futures, they now hold $260-billion, and the figure is expected to climb to $1-trillion. But sheer coincidence - not - the price of oil has been going up steadily for the past five years and recently corm has been shooting up. In both cases, people familiar with supply/demand have been saying nothing in the objective situation justifies such steep rises, and it turns out they are right.
By the way, before people start their Bush-Bashing - and we are so fed up with the President's incompetence we dearly want to bash him too, but that has no relevance to what we're discussing - please note that the rules were changed in the Clinton years so please not to bash our boy for this.
Okay, all this fine and dandy, and we known that American corporate morals have sunk so low even alley cats are boycotting Wall Street, which is now the world's most famous Red Light District. What we are having difficulty digesting is that a government regulatory agency can lie so blatantly to the people of the United States. It is absolutely absurd for the CFTC to say, as it will, that it had no access to the data when people have been warning high and low that market manipulation is going on. This is willful malfeasance, and the members of the CFTC need to be invested starting today as to what gain, if any, its members got from their lies and refusal to investigate/act. After that heads should roll - literally and not figuratively - both if members are found willfully incompetent or if they themselves have profited.
The CFTC has not acted alone: members of Congress have been active on behalf of speculators in twisting rule and shielding from scrutiny. Action needs to be taken too against these members of Congress.
Look, people, the last thirty years have seen an incredible decline in public trust of the government. That means the executive and legislative branches. Only the judicial branch has clean hands.
This thirty years has come on top of the ten years of Second Indochina, when the government found it easier to lie than to tell the truth and build consensus for this policy or that policy. Government was already weakened before the 30-year onslaught.
Unless you, our readers, start insisting on accountability from your elected representatives and bureaucrats, and on punishment for those guilty of gross incompetence, such as many civil and military officials in Second Gulf, America is going to see a breakdown in governance.
It is no longer a question of "gosh, we messed up with electricity deregulation", or "darn, we just cant seem to get our act on immigration together", or "we're shocked at how Iraq was messed up and how Afghanistan is going under," or "globalization has destroyed jobs for ordinary blue collar folks, why didn't anyone realize that would happen?" or whatever. All these things are related, all these things are symptomatic of a very deep malaise in this country. Public policy is being made in backrooms by coalitions of corrupt politicians and single issue pressure groups, many of which don't even pretend to be working in the public interest and are corrupt parts of the corrupt system.
Your editor doesn't follow the states, but are told that in several states a people's revolt is taking place and better governance is being exercised. So changes can be effected, and have to be effected if you, the citizens of this nation, want it remain great and not sink to the level of a gigantic banana republic.
0230 GMT August 20, 2008
Russia Preparing To Recognize Abkhaz, S. Ossetia Independence says Times London. The Duma has been recalled for next Monday to consider a request by Abhkazia for recognition; the South Ossetia rebel leader says he will follow.
Russia has signed 14 UN resolutions/agreements recognizing these territories as and integral part of Georgia, so accepting their independence will be a major change. It will permit the Russians to kick out the UN, NATO/EU observers, Georgian forces permitted by treaty and so on, and to increase their own troops deployments if the latter is what they want.
Russia suspends All Cooperation With NATO A Soviet official is supposed to have phoned the Norwegian Embassy in Moscow and told them about this development, which is not confirmed. Trying to guess what the Bear is up to is seldom a productive activity, but this could be a trial balloon to gauge the west's reaction. For example, if the west starts groveling then Russia knows it has leverage. If the west says "OK, TaTa", the Russians know they do not have leverage.
Russia says it has cancelled an exercise with a US warship; the US said earlier it was canceling the participation of the Russian Navy.
Russia Drops S. Ossetia Civilian Toll to 133, from the 2000 it has been yelling and screaming about as it claimed genocide. So what's behind this change? Our guess - and this is pure speculation -is that unless Russia bars all foreigners from South Ossetia, its fairly easy to get accurate casualty counts. The entire province has/had 70,000 persons. A second reason might be that by giving a count that may actually be somewhat under the real figure, Russia hopes that foreigners will have no incentive to disprove the Russian figure and will not bother mucking around in Georgia where the foreigners will find some serious ethnic cleansing going on.
Syrian Pigeon Coos Softly In The Bear's Ear President Assad Junior is in Moscow to buy weapons and to offer Russia basing rights for SS-26 short-range ballistic missiles. No word on if Russia is interested in the basing rights, but surely Russia will be interested in Syria's offer to permit basing rights at Tartus. This would give the Russians their first base in the Mediterranean since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The Russian President did call the Israeli Prime Minister to say he valued Russian-Israeli ties.
Peculiar Story On US 767 Sale To Israel Jerusalem Post says US sources say US has refused to sell Boeing 767s to Israel because it doesn't want to be accused of providing air refuellers that could be used to strike Iran.
JPost finds the report odd because it cant get the military to confirm, and notes that Israel Aircraft Industries has just been awarded a $22-million contract to convert more B-707s to tankers to add to the IAF's small number of existing B-707 tankers. We will not speculate on numbers till we have a better idea of how the deal is structured. For example, are new engines involved and are the engines to be supplied by the IAF? The tankers will be in service by 2009.
Also, we're unclear why Israel would want 767 tankers from the US. Buying cargo 767s for El Al and then providing kits for emergency conversion to tankers would make more sense than to tie up - say - 4 expensive new 767s.
0230 GMT August 19, 2008
Afghanistan Fighters loyal to the outlaw warlord Gulbaddin Hekmatyar, possibly the most wanted man in Afghanistan, ambushed a newly arrived French paratroop patrol 30 km from Afghanistan, killing 10 paras and wounding about two dozen. Thirteen enemy bodies were recovered, more are certain to have died. President Sarkozy, to give him credit, reiterated that France will not be driven from Afghanistan by casualties.
Taliban fighters made a "complex attack" on the big US base at Khost. Perhaps 20 were killed, it would appear mainly by Afghan special forces who caught the Taliban some kilometers from the base. Ten suicide bombers were among the Taliban killed. No allied dead reported.
We are going Austin Power on the "complex attack" because - goodness gracious - the Taliban attacked at night under the cover of a rocket barrage, and the suiciders were supposed to breach the base's walls and Taliban fighters were supposed to have entered. Okay, we concede this exceptionally simple-minded attack is "complex" as far as the Taliban go because their officers and leaders seem to suffer from RIQS - Reduced IQ Syndrome and for years have been doing the stupidest things. But lets face it, folks. This was not a complex attack.
The reason we say that is the suicide bombers. You do not use idiots wanting to die as their foremost objective as sappers. You use your best men, very carefully trained, and their object is to breach walls, not to die. If some die in the process, well, that's war, but if you are going to attack with the object of attaining martyrdom, you are likely to get your wish without creating much of a military impact. Ask the ghosts of the 600,000 Iranians that died in 1980-88: several hundred thousands were the then equivalent of suicide troops. Iran did push Iraq out of its territory, but the Iranians lost 3 men/boys to each Iraqi.
It speaks very badly for the manner in which this attack was conducted that the main column was itself ambushed and wiped out.
Anyhows, in large part our comments are irrelevant because the Taliban don't mind taking casualties and they are killing larger and larger numbers of foreign troops. So far, of course, this hasn't bothered the foreigners, because the overall numbers are tiny.
NATO/US are busy blaming Pakistan for this resurgence of Taliban activity, supposed to be at the highest level since 2001. We'd prefer if NATO/US would stop whining and shift the blame where it belongs, namely on themselves. It is actually not Pakistan's job to commit hara kiri by stopping the Taliban, who are for all practical purposes, Pakistan forces fighting to enhance Pakistan's security. It is for NATO/US to seal the border themselves, and the alliance has let so much time pass that the job is going to be 10 times harder than it might have been even just two years ago. So, NATO/US, good luck with all that. But can you please stop whining. Its getting tiresome.
Comedy Central: Georgia NATO has apparently discovered - and is shocked, shocked - that the Russian definition of "withdrawal" from Georgia is different from the French definition. Paris took the lead in encouraging a ceasefire and a withdrawal of Russian forces to pre-war positions. As far as the Russians are concerned, they are withdrawing. But then what about all this blowing up of equipment at Georgian military bases, the patrols that seem to just sort of creep forward deeper into Georgia, and most charming, the Russian SS-21 SSM batteries that are digging in well inside Georgia?
See, folks, the Russians said very clearly from the start they were going to do what they thought neccessary to protect Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and they made is quite clear they were going to create an exclusion zone that basically covered the northern half of Georgia. They also said they were not going to allow Georgian troops inside the two breakaway areas in any form or shape.
So how can anyone accuse the Russians of perfidy, as people are now doing, and how can anyone say Russian intentions are unclear? What does NATO want by way of clarification? Do they want the Russians to produce a kindergarten primer with simple explanations such as G(eorgia) is for Province-Of-Russia, and P(eace) is for No-Army-For-Georgia, and S(ecurity) is for The-Only-Good-Georgian-Is-A-Dead-Georgian?
The Russians have said what they are going to do a hundred times in a dozen different ways. If NATO is not getting it, maybe NATO needs to go back to elementary school and learn to read and listen.
Back At The Ranch Readers may recall our saying - and the media saying many times - that the situation in the north of Iraq is very tense because there are multiple claimants for Kirkuk, which sits in the middle of the northern oil fields. The Kurds say it is theirs and that Saddam's ethnic cleansing of the Kurds and resettlement by Arabs has to be undone. The Arabs say where are we now supposed to go, we've been living here for a generation. The Turkeman, backed by Turkey which threatens to invade to support its ethnic brothers, say they have been in Kirkuk a few centuries and it's theirs. Etc etc.
The issue was supposed to have been settled by a referendum, and - understandably - the referendum keeps getting delayed because there seems no peaceful resolution.
We'd mentioned that the Kurds have been ethnically cleansing the region of Arabs - albeit in a more humane way that most such cleansing takes place. They have been giving Arabs settlers money and safe passage out of the region, in other words a deal the Arabs cannot refuse.
Now we learn from the International Herald Tribune that Kurdish security forces, police, and intelligence control Kirkuk. The Kurdish forces have cooperated fully with the Americans and have fought AQI as well as Sunni terrorists/militias in the north on behalf of the Americans. But there are at least two, maybe three, Iraq Army divisions composed mainly of Kurdish troops who have been formed, trained, equipped etc by the Americans. In a showdown, no need to guess which side the Kurdish divisions are going to back. Hint: we wouldn't put our money on Baghdad.
0230 GMT August 18, 2008
Russia Withdrawing From Georgia/Russia Not Withdrawing From Georgia This headline summarizes the complete situation, so we do not need to amplify.
Meanwhile, Russia's president has blasted Georgian "morons" and says they will not go "unpunished".
Also meanwhile, ethnic cleansing by South Ossetia militia and Russian forces continues; naturally, this is of no consequence. If the world has no stomach to stand up to Russia invading a sovereign member of the UN, the world certainly has no stomach to stand up to Russia on its own ethnic cleansing. There are ideals, and there are realities. When it comes to their ideals about what their own governments do, westerners are never short of outrage. When it comes to their ideals being violated by a snarling, fanged bear in a fighting mood, the good people of the west turn a Nelsonian eye. No point even saying the good people of the west are wimps and cowards. Just as there is no point saying the sun rises and sets each day.
Hilarious article by the French president - who we genuinely like and admire for his personal life - in the Washington Post. All about how he is courageously standing up to Russia. Sarko, old buddy old pal, give it up. We know its that delicious Bordeaux Red talking. Instead of talking, why don't you dispatch a French battalion to Tbilisi? It's right next door, practically.
No? Not a good idea? Let's have another glass of the divine Red and listen to another sad love song, and stick an unlit Gauloise between our lips (can't light it, not politically correct), adjust our berets, and leer at the beautiful legs of that stunning raven-haired Parisian walking past our cafe.
More Bad News For Green Haters The State of Colorado mandated some years ago that in 10 years or whatever, 10% of its energy had to come from renewables. The conventional energy lobby - which is very strong in Colorado because of the state's natural gas resources - fought the mandate tooth-and-nail. Then of a sudden it changed its mind and jumped into renewables with all four paws. Result? State has achieved its target 8 years early, and the conventional energy generators (who are now also renewable energy generators) have agreed to up the ante and go for a 20% target.
In fact, the leading energy producer has filed its intent to shut down two coal-fired plants without replacement.
All we can say is, Orbat.com is second-to-none in hating Greens, but you have to admire what the conventional lot have achieved, green-wise. Yes, yes, we know Colorado is different because its people dont mind paying for green power, lots of tax breaks (BTW the conventional energy people also get a lot of breaks), and Colorado has no heavy industry to speak of, there's still the base-load problem etc etc. But the Coloradans have acted instead of moaning and whining, and they are showing the way.
Pakistan President Resigns and local media says he will leave for another country. It's beside the point now to mention that the fall of this dictator came about because he wasn't even a pretend dictator. He was far too soft to even be a regular politician, leave alone a dictator.
US Arctic Superiority In Danger/US Asleep at The Switch As Usual Nowdays We need to get back to work, but you can read all about it here.
0230 GMT August 17, 2008
So, What's Happening In The Rest Of The World?
Very Little Apparently
Isn't It So Considerate Of The News That It Understands journalists need a weekend break like anyone else and thoughtfully decides not to happen on a Sunday, and if at all possible, not on a Saturday too?
Olympics with the Chinese lead increasing to 37 golds to US's 19, the US media has begun facing up to the likelihood America is not going to come first. And of course that 19 includes 8 golds by one person, Mark Phelps the swimming legend-in-his-lifetime.
We learn from the UK Telegraph that in 1996 UK sank to a single gold medal, but just 12 years later is at 11 with the possibility of five more. The secret? Not much of a secret, apparently. UK decided to divert money from National Lottery winnings to sports training.
Gori, Georgia The Russians say they will start leaving Georgia today, but seem to be creating a situation in which we can endlessly debate what "leave" means. They appear to be strengthening their positions in Gori, have completely banned the Georgian government, police, city administration to enter, and have replaced the TV and radio station with their own, apparently tuned only to Russia. Meanwhile, they keep their checkposts on the main west-east highway, including one just 30-km from Tbilisi.
By the way, we are quite annoyed with the media for continuing to identify anything with tracks as a Russian tank, and particularly IFVs and SP artillery. Is there no qualification at all required to be a reporter?
Asia Times discusses Israel-Georgia military cooperation.
Germany To Georgia: You Can Join NATO Much to our surprise, Chief of the Super Wimps, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, which has been the leader in thwarting the US effort to get Georgia into NATO, has visited the Georgia capital and says Georgia can join NATO if it wishes to do so.
Now, assuming that this is not more political hot air, and that assuming that when Georgia says "we've been trying to join, of course we want" the Wimp Brigade doesn't come up with 999 more things Georgia has to do before it is permitted to join, this is a huge change in Germany's position.
We'd figured Georgia's bid to join NATO was pretty much toast after the recent war, but apparently the West has been shocked out of its senility, at least for now. This could be a major setback for Russia's policy of intimidation as a way of keeping people out of NATO.
But before people start partying, its best to remember that the Russians are a very tough bunch of patriots. Its likely that Georgia joining will only harden their positions and increase their belligerence. The Russians have a lot to lose if they quietly accept Georgia-in-NATO.
And its always best to remember that if the West got serious on energy independence from Russia today, it will still take ten years to the point they can tell Russia where it can get off. And since the Russians will also have ready markets for the hydrocarbon resources, they will still keep getting vast sums of money each year. They may just decide they dont have to compromise with anyone.
0230 GMT August 17, 2008
So, What's Happening In The Rest Of The World?
In Beijing, America's Sorry Backside Is Being Whipped by the Chinese sports machine. Subtracting Mark Phelps' 7 golds, US is running 3-to-1 behind China. Of course, the Chinese have the home field advantage, but more to the point, they care about winning enough to do everything to win. In America we have such a high opinion of ourselves as the best in everything that we have spent the last four years lollygagging, even though the rise of China and the threat to American supremacy has been known for at least the last 12 years.
True, the track and filed events where America picks up a huge haul have just begun. At the same time, lagging China by 11 golds (16 to 27 counting Mr. Phelps) is not a good thing. The next step is to claim that really, these medal measures are so pointless, and that we come second shows only the superiority of our way of life and that the Chinese come first shows only how anti-freedom and anti-individualistic they are.
The editor needs to explain something to the proponents of the "it doesn't matter" school. National power includes many components, and Olympic golds are a key measure. If America does not come out on top, the rest of the world is going to take it as one more sign of America's decline.
From Ukraine, An Offer To Use Its Early Warning Radars Right off, this development has not come about because of the Georgia war, but it has become significant because of the Georgia war. Ukraine has two large early warning radars for missile and air defense. The Russians abrogated their treaty requiring Ukraine to work with the Russians, so Ukraine says it is free to offer them to anyone.
It says its security can be guaranteed only through collective means - meaning, but NATO, and its offer is a sign of good faith.
Two problems. First, given how the West went totally wobbly over Georgia, what's the guarantee it is now willing to extend its protection to Ukraine? Second, it is always a very, very bad idea to rely on someone else for your defense.
Ukraine is not a small country. It has 46-million people, and using the modest figure of 5% of the population, it could put 2.5-million regulars and reservists into the field to defend itself. That many troops is more than just a speed bump in case of attack from the East. Naturally this means money, especially since Ukraine will have to in the next 10 years bring 15 divisions to snuff, and then another 15 divisions depending on what the Russians will do. Equally, Ukraine will need dense air defenses. This means gigabucks.
But then no one said that the defense of liberty comes cheap.
In Zimbabwe, No Progress On Political Deadlock we deliberately have not covered the ongoing talks between the opposition and Mr. Mugabe, because the situation changes every day. It now looks that Mr. Tsvangirai, the opposition leader, is willing to settle for prime ministership while real power remains with Mr. Mugabe, and for years rather than the months that was his earlier demand.
Let us see how things work out.
0230 GMT August 16, 2008
Sri Lanka Army Advances on rebel de facto capital in the north, Killinochchi. The Army has entered the Vanni area, where the rebel capital is located.
The Army claims 5600 rebels killed this year in a series of non-stop offensives. The figure can be disputed, but not that the rebels are steadily losing ground. This does not mean they have lost the war, only that they will soon be defeated and will have to go back to Phase III of guerilla war, where the insurgents don't hold ground, but build up strength so they can start taking over urban areas. Conversely, its probably reasonable to expect that the rebels will be in great difficulty, having lost near 20 years of gains.
Saudi Intel Chief In Pakistan says Jang of Pakistan. He brought a message offering President Musharraf safe passage should the latter decided to resign. The President seems to be on his way out, with the civilian government working to impeach him. Sources say he would rather resign than be impeached.
US pushed to have President Musharraf give up power in favor of a democratic government. The US got what it wished for. Orbat.com and about a hundred people warned the US Government that while Musharraf was not the ideal person to fight America's war on terror in the region - no Pakistan leader can do that - his civilian successors would be far less able to combat the insurgents. All this has to come to pass even faster than Orbat.com expected. Now US moans and sighs about the Good Old Days when Mush was in power.
That's the Americans for you - nothing keeps them happy.
While India and America Were Dreamily Waltzing Away a Maoist government has taken power in Nepal. Its ministers will head 9 portfolios, including security and foreign affairs. A major left ally gets 7 portfolios. And yet another left party gets 4.
So, people, we need to be told once again how communism has failed even as welcome the world's newest communist regime. These are not your average Red, by the way. They are Maoists if the peasant agrarian revolution sort. Cant get much redder than this lot.
Russia Threatens Poland with N-Attack In Case Of War With West Now, people, a quick lesson in what's important post-Georgia. Russia yesterday made a very blatant, very open threat against Poland for having accepted siteing of a US Army ABM battery on its territory, just 24 hours after the US-Poland agreement was signed.
Don't take our word for it: here's the direct quote from the International Herald Tribune of what the Russian deputy defense chief, a 3-star general said:
General Anatoly Nogovitsyn said that any new US assets in Europe could come under Russian nuclear attack with his forces targeting "the allies of countries having nuclear weapons". And: He told Russia's Interfax news agency: "By hosting these, Poland is making itself a target. This is 100 per cent certain. It becomes a target for attack. Such targets are destroyed as a first priority."
So why do we put this last in our update? Because - to use an American phrase, we have a completely new situation in Europe and the world had better "get used to it." Fairly soon we will all be yawning each time the Russians threaten another country and work to undermine its government, including open invasion
The US has agreed to give Poland advanced Patriot to boost that's country's air defense against Soviet air and missile threats. This is not a consequence of Georgia: the agreement was worked out a while ago. We assume US technicians, advisors, and perhaps even artillerymen, will come with the Patriots.
Meanwhile Back At The Ranch US delivered its sternest message to Russia by sending Ms. Condolezza Rice to Tbilisi. While MS. Rice was in the Georgia capital, the Russians send a reconnaissance company to within 50-km of Tbilisi - the closest they have come to the capital.
Oh yes, the Russians are frightened of the US. Very frightened. Not.
Frankly, we are delighted. US has been so bloated with righteousness and arrogance for the last ten years that speaking purely within the editor's American persona, he is thrilled Washington has been given several tight slaps by the Russians. Since when did Washington think all it had to do is pass gas and the world would fall in line? America is going to have to get back to the only way national security is assured: by talking little, and working very hard to build your defenses. This is the way America was for the 50 years between 1940 and 1990. It will be good to get back to traditional American values. PS Washington: get the hint? Stop talking and talking and talking. Start doing.
0230 GMT August 15, 2008
Russian Deputy Chief of Staff on Russian Troops In Poti "We are no longer fighting, believe me ... We have a different problem now. Poti is one of those, and the geography is probably going to change. We switched into the capacity of peacekeepers."
"As far as Poti and other places are concerned, let's agree with you that if it (the place) is inside the peacekeeping zone of responsibility, then it is legitimate for intelligence, information and special groups to be there."
"We can't sit and do nothing, we need to proceed with intelligence operations and react adequately. This is our task, including during a time of peace."
In other words Russia is not going to withdraw from Poti. The port city will not be under Georgian control. if you look at the Georgia map you will see Poti is halfway down the Georgia coast. If this can be returned to Georgian control, neither can the northern half of the country because the north includes just about most Georgia military bases.
Therefore: quod erat demonstrandum, or QED, a term generations of long-suffering geometry students are all-too-familiar with, including the editor, who teaches geometry and is also, from time to time, a geometry student. The Latin term means "that which was to be demonstrated, has been demonstrated". The editor's first geometry teacher, back in school, half a century or more ago, used to say: "QED: Quite Easily Done". This is a math nerd joke, if you don't find it funny, not to worry. You are normal.
All readers need to be aware the Russian commander's statement was not issued a while ago. It was issued yesterday, AFTER the most dire warnings from the US about damage to long-term relations with Russia etc etc etc. In other words, the Russians are telling the Americans and everyone else: "Please remove yourself and go do something unpleasant to you in the privacy of your own home."
So again - as we have been warning our readers - don't bother parsing Russian statements. There is no profit in it. They plan to occupy the north half of Georgia, one way or the other, and they plan to ensure that south Georgia joins north Georgia. This really is goodbye Georgia, and we suggest we all stop wasting our time on this matter.
Meanwhile, Georgia and Oil Politics The oil angle is definitely important to Russia, but please, don't underestimate the Russians. The invasion of Georgia is NOT about oil. It is about getting the west to stop encircling and squeezing Russia. The Russians would have invaded Georgia even if oil was not a concern.
That said, Georgia is vital in the Battle of the Hydrocarbon Pipelines. Put simply, central Asia has huge reserves of natural gas and considerable quantities of oil. The Russians want these to travel through pipelines Russia controls. The west does not. So the west built an oil and a natural gas pipeline through Georgia. The Bear is not happy.
Look at this nice map from Wikipedia and the issues will become crystal clear. Central Asia's hydrocarbon is only now being seriously exploited: there will be a lot more pipelines and expansions in the next 20-30 years.
Russia wants to control the Central Asia hydrocarbon routes not just because it wants power over the west - western Europe already depends on Russia for one-quarter of its energy - but also because if an exporting country has no choice but to ship through Russia, the Russians charge a whacking great transit fee.
So you see, it isn't just America that's been living in Peter Pan Land on energy. The Euros too have. The difference is that the Euros have made and are making gigantic efforts to get away from oil dependency while the US has been going "a tra, and a la, and a hey ho".
The reality is the west needs to launch a crash N-power program, yesterday. We are not talking of a few gigawatts of N-reactors. We are talking a terrawatt for west Europe and a half terrawatt for the US (US not only has a lot of its own oil, but Canada is a reliable supplier, so US needs to replace only half of its oil.) So we're looking at 1500 one-gigawatt reactors in a space of 20 years, plus crash programs for solar, wind, conservation and so on.
There is no further time to indulge ourselves in so-called green debate. N-reactors are in any case a lot less environmental damaging than coal and oil.
The west has three choices. (a) Become energy independent of not just the Middle East but also of Russia. (b) Reduce energy consumption by 50% in the next 20 years, which means falling standards of living. (c) Continue as now, and get to ready to smoochie poo the Bear's very large backside; also to learn the proper prostration procedure for the Arabs. So far the west is just learning to kiss Arab backsides. Fairly soon we'll have to be waiting there, ready to wipe Arab backsides with toilet paper - and begging for the honor. And also fighting India and China for the honor.
The editor cannot speak for the rest of America and the Europeans. But his grandmothers sure did not raise him to wipe anyone's backsides, and he sure didn't bring up his children to expect to pay anyone to be allowed to wipe their backsides.
Its up to y'all mates. The editor will have no problem living on 50% of the energy he now uses. That's one of the many advantages of spending 20 years in India. But will you be able to take that cut in your standard of living?
Signs of Hope A US utility plans to build Calvert Cliffs 3, in Maryland, not all that far from where the editor lives. If approved - and if the company goes through with the project - at some point 10 years from now the first US commercial reactor in 40 years will become operational.
So are the good people of Calvert Cliffs freaking out? Are the demonstrating with slogans of: "Give me Green Energy or Give me Death?" and "You'll build that reactor when you pry that solar cell from my cold dead hands?"
Not a bit. They are cheering. They say they've lived with two reactors for decades. They say America needs reliable energy. They're saying "Build the Reactor".
Even the greens, who will present the usual challenge after challenge to the reactor, admit there is no local support to stop the reactor.
2000 GMT August 14, 2008
Russians Attack Georgia Navy In Poti
Six Georgia Vessels Sunk
Russians Have Blockaded The Port
From Al Jazeera we learn that yesterday or today the Russians attacked the Georgia Navy in Poti and sank six vessels. They have blockaded the port, and are turning ships away. As a consequence the oil refineries in Poti are shut down.
Al Jazzera had a correspondent 3 km from the naval base when the attack took place. http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2008/08/2008813181343641348.html
Unfortunately, the editor does not hear well and could not make out most of the report except (a) Georgia forces have abandoned Poti, no sign of them; (b) Russia forces continue to advance south.
We also present Konstantin Pehlivanov's Order of Battle for Russia forces in Georgia. He has not identified the units' position inside Georgia, but has given units/peacetime bases. elements of 19 Motor Rifle (2 brigade equivalents), 76 Parachute, and 98 Parachute Divisions are in Georgia (combined 3 brigade equivalents), along with a mountain brigade and a SPETNAZ brigade. western media wrongly place 42 Chechen Division in Georgia, the division has sent only one battalion. The Chechens are accused of serious atrocities.
Our reports had suggested 3 mechanized brigade equivalents and three parachute brigade equivalents plus the mountain brigade, for a total of seven brigade equivalents. We had one mechanized brigade too many and did not know a special forces brigade was committed.
0230 GMT August 14, 2008
The Ceasefire Russia is making it clear it has the right to traipse all over Georgia despite the ceasefire, that Georgian troops will have no role in any multinational peacekeeping forces in South Ossetia and Abhkazia, that Georgian forces will enter no Georgia base if Russia feels the security of its forces is threatened, that it will continue operations with the Abkhaz militia to clear Georgia out of that separatist region, and that it will participate in the ethnic cleansing of South Ossetia that is underway.
So if someone wants to call that a ceasefire, we suppose the editor can claim he has won 100 gold medals at the Beijing Olympics, all without having left his house and no one should call him a liar.
The ethnic cleansing is real and is being testified to by HR groups. It involves murdering ethnic Georgians and burning down entire villages. The west is doing...what? Speak up west, we can't hear you! Louder please, we still can't hear you. Oh, y'all are whimpering under your beds? That's fine, that's fine, just say so so we can move on.
As for the Russians wandering around Georgia: they rolled back into Gori and headed east on the Tbilisi road. The Georgian Army had to rush to man its forward defenses for the capital and prepare for its Famous Last Stand before it was realized the Russians were casually taking a left turn to head back to South Ossetia, after having scared the daylights out of everyone. The Long and winding Road, so as to speak. The Russians deny they have moved anywhere, problem is this time western journalists were present and saw the Russians doing their thing.
Georgia Did Commit An Atrocity when it attacked the South Ossetia capital. It made unrestricted use of artillery, causing heavy civilian casualties. Yes, it was not anywhere near 1600-2000 as the Russians claim, though that figure may have been approached once the Russians made their counterattack, because of their indiscriminate use of firepower.
Truthfully, we haven't talked to the Georgians - editor had to go back to work on Monday and there is no opportunity to call anyone. But we can tell you their defense. The South Ossetian militias and Russian "peacekeeping" troops were intermixed with civilians in the regional capital.
Correct, but here is the problem: the Georgians have to hold themselves to a higher standard than the Russians. Not that the Georgians thought to do the American propaganda thing - "we do not target civilians and the cowardly enemy uses civilians as shields" etc etc, but even if they had, the Georgians should not base any ethical situation on what the Americans might or might not do. US has no great record on civilians and warfare. Sorry to upset our American readers, but that is the reality.
So you'll retort "neither do the Indian police have any great record on civilians." True but irrelevant for two reasons. The Indians don't go around issuing self-righteous statements. And as you may have noticed in the Kashmir riots underway, Indian police almost always open fire only when large mobs surround small police outposts and give every indication they are going to kill the cops. We wonder what would happen if a US police station with 30 cops was about to be overrun by an attacking mob of 3-5000 screaming for blood.
All in all, Georgia needs to maintain the high ground. An impartial inquiry with foreign observers, disciplinary action if required, compensation, and apologies.
London Times In La La Land We are sad it has come to this: whatever fumes this respected newspaper is inhaling have sent it stark ravers.
What to make of the Times' assertion that "Bush squares up to Putin" and "President Bush dispatched US military hardware to the heart of the Caucasus in a dramatic change of stance towards Russia"?
The "hardware" is two C-17s sent yesterday and today with relief supplies. The squaring up to Putin is Mr. Bush blowing hot air; after the war is over and Russian objectives achieved, Mr. Bush sternly tells Russia not to interfere with US humanitarian aid.
If this retreat to fantasy land is not enough, a columnist for the London Times says that " Sending US forces into Georgia represents the most serious military escalation since the Cold War" Hello, people. Sending humanitarian aid to Georgia is a military escalation?
So the US is also to deliver aid by sea, and just as it is most expedient to fly USAF cargo aircraft into Georgia, it is also most expedient to use US Navy warships. When the big tsunami hit South East Asia, Sri Lanka and India in 2005, the US military was first in. Did anyone talk of the US dispatching military hardware anywhere?
And look how quickly the US clarified when the Georgia President said the US move meant Georgia ports and airfields were under US control. No no no no no said the US, nothing of the sort, we are delivering humanitarian aid and naught else.
If the Brits want to hide the reality that they wimped out as much as the US on Georgia, that's their prerogative. But it's odd they should cover up their own failure by putting fighting implications on US's actions and words.
An escalation has taken place, but it has nothing to do with US etc Ukraine has stood up for Georgia by announcing that Russian warships will henceforth have to get permission before they can return to Ukraine ports on the Black Sea. Ukraine and Russia have treaties permitting Russian use of the ports till 2017, when the treaties come up for renegotiations. Given the triumphal Russian mood right now, Moscow is going to seriously freak at the Ukraine directive, and there will be consequences. Good for Ukraine, and it certainly have proven it has courage. More than can be said for the west.
0230 GMT August 13, 2008
Russia Accepts Ceasefire but it must be understood that Georgia's idea of what the ceasefire means is different from Russia's. Until there is an actual document signed, sealed, and delivered, do not assume a legal ceasefire is in effect.
For example, Russia says Georgia will have to accept the decision of Abkhazia and South Ossetia on who they want to be governed by, and Georgia has not agreed to any such deal.
For Georgia, ceasefire means an end to all fighting. Russians have reserved the right to operate against holdout Georgians and to perform "reconnaissance". So here I am, conducting reconnaissance with a mixed company of tanks and BMPs, and someone fires a shot at my company, and I respond with air attacks, artillery barrages, and an armored advance of 10-km, have I violated the ceasefire?
Obviously not from Russia's viewpoint because Russia has said it must be convinced Georgia poses no threat to its - ahem - "peacekeeping" forces in the two breakaway republics. So if Georgian troops attempt to reoccupy their bases at Senaki and Gori, according to Russia that will violate the ceasefire, because Georgia could launch attacks against Abkhazia from Senaki and against South Ossetia from Gori.
If you appreciate the Russian stand, you will have no problem in understanding why Russia continues operations, albeit on a reduced scale. And in these situations, it is extraordinarily easy to create an incident. For example, Georgian troops are deployed north of Tbilisi to protect the capital. The Russians forward troops are stopped some distance away from the Georgia troops. Okay, so at night a Russian commander tells his artillery to fire for a few minutes at Georgian troops. The Georgians go "OMG! We're under attack! Better respond right away before we get overwhelmed by the Russ attack that is surely coming!"
So who is going to prove the Georgians didn't start the fracas? And who is going to say the Russians are wrong to advance 10- or 20-km to annihilate Georgia troops - "We responded in restrained manner to the overwhelmingly, massive, out-a-sight, unprovoked, and cowardly attack the Georgians made against us..." etc. etc. - but the practical effect will be Russian troops will be a jump away from Tbilisi, rather than a hop and a jump away.
Please keep in mind you have an entire part of the world - probably the major part - that needs Imodium Ultra Triple Strength Rapid Acting every time anyone dons a bear costume and softly goes "Boo!". Human nature being what it is, no one wants to admit they are cowards. So they put forward fantastic explanations which justify their not reacting to Russian provocation - the "Georgia walked down the Russian street tarted up in tight skirts and high heels, so when it got raped, it got only what they had coming" school of thought. By the way, read the "analyses" on this war and you will be surprised how many "analysts" are STILL saying Georgia asked for it, even if the Russians went too far. Which is a polite way of saying: "Its okay the woman got raped, but when the rapist turned on her aged mother that was a bit much".
As far as we are concerned, the west can rationalize all it wants, Georgia is so over it's worth no one's energy any more to comment. This is a dead issue: Georgia is back under the Russian boot, however long it takes for the west to get the point.
So it is "Goodbye Georgia" and it is "Hello, Transdensiter, Hello Nagaro-Karabakh".
Watch this space for the next installment of the hugely popular serial: "The Bear Went Over The Mountain". And what did the Bear see? Another tasty snack and another mountain beyond which may lie more tasty snacks.
Memo to Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia: forget what NATO told you by way of your orbat. Buy as much armor and as much air defense artillery as you can squeeze out of your budgets. Forget 2% of GDP expenditure on defense. You'll need at least 4%. Forget about reservists with AKs and the occasional mortar and anti-tank gun and 15 days annual training. You have to go for total defense. Hie yeselves over to Belgrade and start learning before it's too late.
US Contractors In Iraq Now 180,000 This is still an estimate: no one seems to know for sure; the figures are from a government report. On this basis, the US has near 300,000 "soldiers" in Iraq, not 150,000+ because a large percent of the contractors are doing jobs performed by soldiers in past wars.
Taliban Win One In Pakistan NWFP On the fourth day of fight in the Bajur Agency, the Taliban forced Pakistan Frontier Corps troops to retreat from their frontier camps.
Meanwhile there is another round of trouble as Indian Kashmiris seeking independence try to march on Muzzafarabad, the capital of Pakistan Kashmir. They say trade to the Valley from the rest of India has been blockaded by Hindus in Jammu area, who are retaliating against Muslim protests when the government tried to permit vacant land near a Hindu shrine to be used for pilgrim housing.19 people have been killed in police firing as the latter struggle to control the demonstrators.
Indians say there is no blockade, trucks are moving freely between Jammu, which is Hindu majority, and the Valley, which is Muslim majority.
So demonstrating Muslims want to force the border crossings with Pakistan Kashmir so that "trade" can resume between the two parts of Kashmir.
This is all politics as usual. The Muslim demonstrators know perfectly what would happen if their Pakistan brethren march to the India Kashmir border. There wouldn't be 19 dead, there'd be a couple of thousand dead. Pakistan tolerates no demonstration or support for independence in its part of Kashmir, so the Pakistan Kashmiris couldn't even get a demonstration organized leave alone get several tens of thousands people on the streets.
Pakistani Kashmiris are, of course free to demonstrate all they want for the independence of Indian Kashmiris. If India was ever stupid enough to give the Muslims of Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh independence - which basically means the Valley, the very next thing that would happen is that Pakistani stooges among the Kashmiri Muslims would call for integration with Pakistan, and 24 hours later, there would be no more independent Indian Kashmir.
1300 GMT August 12, 2008
Russia Calls Halt To Advance
Wants Large DMZ In Which Russian Troops Allowed...
...But Georgian Troops Excluded
Russia Drops Demand For Regime Change
Russia Bombs Gori, Its Troops Enter
0230 GMT August 12, 2008
Georgia Troops Evacuated Gori Without A Fight
Russia Controls East-West Road; Georgia Cut In Half
Mr. Bush Tells Sun To Stop Shining - Er - Russians To Halt
Georgia says its troops evacuated Gori without fighting. Its garrison in Senaki has withdrawn or been defeated, the Russian control both Gori and Senaki and thus west and north Georgia. The Russians say they are not occupying these two cities; this is probably correct as they own everything inbetween, so why waste men and time garrisoning towns they have won.
Georgia says Russia has also landed troops at Poti, the port they have attacked by air from Day 1. There are unconfirmed reports a Georgia gunboat was sunk while trying to attack Russian warships blockading Georgia.
President Bush lowers the dignity both of the US and himself as he issues a series of "Russia must do this" and "Russia must do that". Either the Russians have gone deaf or they have decided to simply ignore the leader of the most powerful country in the world, or should we now say "self-styled most important country in the world".
Russia admits to losing 18 killed so far; while the Georgians have said they have lost ~100 soldiers, the toll is higher. The Heorgia government just does not have a good idea of what's going on in its own country since it has lost control over so much of its territory.
Georgia did manage to make a small counterattack of sorts against the South Ossetian capital, no details.
Russian forces include a Chechen special forces unit. Quite separately, we read a report some days back that Russia has stepped up its military draft in Chechnya as a way of getting young men out of that subnation, and the ones that have escaped being drafted have fled. Also, BTW, the north Georgia border abuts on Chechnya, Dagestan, and Ingushtia, all hotbeds of Muslim and separatist activity.
In other news matched with the decline of US prestige worldwide comes another news item that should give pause to Americans. Remember we sarcastically said the other day what is it that Americans make any more and said Hollywood movies.
Well, at least one major US film studio is going to work for the Indians now. That's Steven Spielberg and company. India's Reliance has put half-a-billion in cash into his studio, and assumed debt worth another half-billion. On the one hand, the editor is delighted India has arrived on the world stage with a big bang, this investment being just the latest that brings prestige to India. On the other hand, in his American persona, he finds the news very depressing.
If that isn't bad enough, US banks will by 2009 have eliminated 200,000 jobs. But many of those jobs, to do with financial research, have simply been outsourced to India. America bet watch out, because top Indian corporate managers are a pretty capable bunch, and they grow up in a very tough business environment. Soon even the CEO jobs are going to be outsourced.
Well, at least America will always have its mineral resources and grain production. No one can take that away. Bit of reverse colonialism here, but we suppose we in America should be grateful for what we can get.
21:30 GMT August 11, 2008
West Writes Off Georgia
Russians Overrun Senaki
Georgia Evacuates Gori
Moscow Refuses Negotiations With Georgia Leader
The West has clearly indicated it will not militarily intervene no matter how far the Russians advance; the tendency to blame the Georgians for the situation is so extreme that words like "irrational" are being used to describe its leader. Reuters goes as far as to think Austin Powers and refers to the Russian action as an "invasion" with the inverted commas. That Georgia happens to be a sovereign nation recognized by the UN and by Russia, and that South Ossetia is not recognized even by the Russians, and that Abkhazia is recognized only by the Russians, does not seem to deter a major western news agency from using the term "invasion".
By the standard in use by the West, we're all going to have to revise our history books to say that it was Czech and Polish irrationality that led to Germany's invasions that led to World War II. The Germans among others are delicately shuddering and saying "can you image the mess if we'd agreed to NATO membership?". We'd like to ask, what difference does that make? Georgia has signed layers upon layers of agreements allying with the West. We're sure the Germans would have found a way out of coming to Georgia's aid even if it were a NATO member.
We've been analyzing where we went wrong in our assumption that if the fighting expanded beyond South Ossetia the west would step in, and the whole thing comes down to Germany, even though other nations agree with Germany to a lesser or greater extent. The Germans dont like President Bush, we knew that; they did not support Mr. Bush's attempts to bring Georgia into NATO for a lot of unconvincing reasons but mainly because they dont like him; we knew that too. We thought, however, when push came to shove, the Germans, other Euros would stand firm with the US.
The problem being, of course, the US has written off Georgia so why should Germany or anyone else step in. And we surely did not expect the US to wimp out. That was the source of our misanalysis.
One example of the stupid reasons people are giving for not helping Georgia is: "everyone knew you couldnt make Georgia an ally given it is on Russia southern flank." Really? Then had we best not immediately rush and throw the three Baltic nations to the Russians, because aren't those three a wee bit on Russia's flank? Or is it a qualification to be a European diplomat that you must not know any geography?
The Russians have overrun Senaki in the west, near Abkhazia. It is a major military base. The Georgia army has evacuated Gori, another major military base, though the Russians say they haven't advanced on Gori. Since the Russians for some days now have been saying green is yellow and yellow is red, its a bit difficult to believe them. Media witnesses say Gori's 50,000 population has fled and the Army is moving out.
The Georgia intent is now to defend the capital, because that's about all that's going to be left of importance. Russia says it does not intend to advance on Tblisi. At the same time, the Russians are also saying they are not bombing civilian targets - here its hard to fault them as the US long ago rewrote the rules on what is a civilian target - and that Georgians are running over women and children with their tanks.
And at the same time they make it very clear they will not negotiate with the democratically elected president of the country. So at this point it hardly matters if they enter Tbilisi or not, they will not withdraw till they get they leader they want, and this leader will have to promise to engage with Russia and disengage with the West. The physical occupation of Tbilisi becomes a bit irrelevant, doesn't it?
A last point: the Russians have come, they say, to the defense of their ethnic brothers in South Ossetia. Odd, because the Ossetians, north and south, want independence, not brotherhood with Russia. Also odd because it was Moscow that put South Ossetia inside Georgia, and it was Moscow that post-breakup who has continued to recognize South Ossetia as part of sovereign Georgia. The folks there have become ethnic brothers only because Moscow gives Russian passports to any South Ossetian asking. (Note to self: write memo to Government of India suggest GOI give Indian nationality to ALL South Asians prior to invading the six other nations.)
Very clearly stated: we are not anti-Russia. We have many times sympathized with Russia's drive to get respect. We have noted US perfidy on Central Asia. And while this blog was not in existence when the fighting in Yugoslavia took place, the editor has consistently opposed the West's breaking up of the country to suit itself. We have said nothing about Kosovo because there is nothing to say, but since it is now apropos, let us make our position clear: the West has done a great wrong in Kosovo.
They are seeing the consequences in Georgia. The West did not dream Russia would react so fast. We didn't either, but then no one pays us to keep track of these things. Others are paid, and right now their lack of diligence is disgraceful.
As for the western intel services including the US's vaunted intel prowess? What is it all worth? Less than the contents of the editor's vacuum cleaner dust bag - after he has removed the coins.
1330 GMT August 11, 2008
Russian Parachute Division In Abkhazia
Georgia Army Holding Russian Advance On Gori
Russia Reinforces South Ossetia
Russia Demands Surrender of Georgian Forces in Abkhazia
Georgia Claims 18 Russian Aircraft Downed, Russia Admits 4
Mr. Bush "Very Firm" With Mt. Putin, Mr. Putin Unimpressed
Russia says it has moved 9000 troops and 350 AFVs into Abkhazia; this equates to a parachute division. Russia has demanded the surrender of 1400 Georgia troops in Abkhazia; the Georgians have refused. Fighting has begun; is underway; Russian troops have not yet taken Zugdidi, where the bulk of the Georgia forces in Abkhazia are stationed. One Georgia Army brigade, the last formation the Georgians had left uncommitted, has reinforced positions outside Abhkazia.
Georgia Army has blocked, at least for now, the Russian advance on Gori.
Georgia Army is still using artillery against the breakaway capital of South Ossetia, now under Russian control, but reports say the Georgians suffered heavy casualties in the fighting there. This is reasonable because the Russians are fully mechanized whereas the Georgians are almost all light infantry.
Prime Minister Putin has strongly condemned the US airlift of Georgia troops back to their country; mirroring American agitprop speak the Russian leader says the airlift is not "helpful".
The French and Finnish foreign ministers have taken a Georgia ceasefire offer to Moscow, there is no reason to believe Russia will stop fighting before all its objectives are gained.
US continues to waffle, with Mr. Bush he was very firm with Mr. Putin. Obviously Mr. Putin remains unimpressed.
0230 GMT August 11, 2008
Russia Escalates: Advances on Gori In Central Georgia
Abkhaz Official: Negotiations Underway For Russia To Enter West Georgia
Russia Refuses To Cease Fire
Russia Ups Ante By Demanding Dismissal Of Georgia President
Some Georgia Troops In Iraq Return
Reports that Soviet Naval Infantry Has Landed In Abkhazia
The news that Russia is advancing on Gori in Central Georgia prompts speculation the Russians will cut the country in half. An Abkhaz official says negotiations are on with the mayor of a Georgia town near the Abkhaz border for the peaceful entry of Russian troops.
If Gori is taken - Georgia troops are digging in - Russian troops can advance on Tbilisi from the west and the north. Reports from the Georgia side say that most civilians have fled Gori, a city of 50,000.
The US expresses "alarm". The best thing we can suggest is for Washington to starting waving white flags. America has been so completely outmaneuvered by the Russians that it has been caught on its potty without toilet paper. The United States has demonstrated without any doubt that it is unable to defend a small state that bravely risked aligning with the west in the face of Russian opposition for the last 15 years.
The US is showing not the slightest shame that it used the Georgians to deploy troops to Iraq - a large contingent given the size of the Georgia Army, and in turn it refuses to help Georgia except go blah blah blah.
This is a very odd situation indeed: its okay for Georgians to fight for America, and its okay for America to lead the Georgians on by pretending Georgia is protected from the Russians and thus enlist their cooperation, but it is not okay for America to help Georgia? This kind of slimy behavior on the part of a country that lectures everyone on morality is not conscionable.
Most analysts on the west, desperate to prove their "even-handedness" equally condemn the Georgia president for starting this war. But it was not him who started it: it was the South Ossetians who succeeded, and the Russians who protected them while pretending to be a neutral force for peace. Georgia has been under provocation for months now, with violations of its airspace and attacks on its outposts. Moreover, the Georgians accuse the Russians of preparing to invade for some time now; considering the very rapid response of Russian forces to the Georgia attack in the separatist capital, this charge merits attention. It is bad enough Russia was sitting inside Georgia in the north, but it also has been sitting inside Georgia in the west, in Abhkazia, and provocations galore have been underway there too.
The west by condemning the Georgian president for rashness is in exactly the same position of those who defend rapists on the ground women "ask for it" by dressing or acting provocatively. With the difference the woman in this case was simply trying to get intruders out of her house after all her appeals for help were rejected.
If the US now counter-intervenes it will create exactly the very dangerous situation it was trying to avoid by laying low when the Russians entered South Ossetia. The Russians will find it impossible to stop without deposing the democratically elected president of Georgia. The stakes have become very high for them now they are moving on Gori. Any withdrawal from Georgia on terms other than those of their dictation will be seen as a defeat for them
The Russian advance actually favors Georgia in the longer run, because now it can stop playing soldier and pretending its light infantry can stop Russian mechanized forces. If and when Tbilisi falls, the Georgians can go into guerilla mode, where they will have the advantage, and give the west ample time to regret its extreme foolishness.
By the way, we trust the Germans are feeling proud of themselves for now joining the ranks of Uber Wimps, in fact, for now leading the Yellow Quitter League. So much for German aspirations to be the dominant power in Central Europe. All they can dominate is their beer steins, and the way things are going, maybe it will not be long before they have to surrender their steins.
We are unable to get from anywhere an accurate report about Russian naval infantry landing in Abkhazia. Two Russian cruisers are off the Georgia coast now.
Georgia says it has been trying to talk to Russia since 0500 Sunday without success. It says its troops have ceased fire. Russia says fighting is still continuing in South Ossetia and it will not accept a ceasefire. It now wants dismissal of the Georgia President, something the US has rejected. The Russians may be unaware that the Georgia president was elected by a popular vote, so he cannot be as simply dismissed as would the case were this Russia.
Russian aircraft continued bombing Georgia military and civil targets.
One Georgian official says the army has not left South Ossetia, it has been forced only out of the separatist capital and is redeploying.
The question being, of course, what does Georgia have to deploy? It began with just three light infantry brigades, a special forces brigade which obviously is also light, and a light reserve brigade of uncertain capability. It has a single tank battalion which has taken heavy casualties in South Ossetia.
Georgia's lack of heavy troops shows - as if any proof were required - of the fallacy of NATO doctrine which has focused on turning its new members and allies into light infantry for peacekeeping and internal security without regard for the external threat, Russia, which continues to field large mechanized forces. That their general readiness is low and the equipment is obsolete doesn't mean the Russians cant put together two division-equivalents for attacks on small countries. And they have so much artillery that even if the well-trained battalions are few, the Russians can make a serious mess out of a small opponent, as has happened in the separatist capital.
Here Russian propaganda has done well: before the Russians even entered, they began screaming about heavy civilian losses imposed by the Georgians on the civil population. Now they are in a good position to blame Georgia for all the civil casualties they have caused by their traditional mass-firepower method of warfare.
Several hundred Georgia troops returned from Iraq. It's not clear to us who transported them, but even if it was the US, with the war lost because the west failed to draw the line, it hardly matters.
1630 GMT August 10, 2008
Georgian Troops have withdrawn from South Ossetia and Georgia has offered a ceasefire. Tbilisi says it has not been defeated and that it has offered the ceasefire solely to help resolve the issues concerning the breakaway region.
Nonetheless, Russia continued bombing Georgia through Sunday. Russia has blockaded the Georgia coast - it's immaterial that Moscow says it is not a blockade. There are indications that the Russians have upped the ante: they say there is no question of returning to the situation as existed before last Thursday's Georgian offensive into the breakaway region.
Russian troops in Abhkazia, formerly part of the regional peacekeeping force formed of Russian and Georgian troops and UN observers, have told Georgian troops to get out of their way as they intend to advance. Russia has asked the UN to withdraw its observers (AFP at 1130 GMT).
These moves suggest that Russia intends to become guarantor of independent puppet republics in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, prior to absorbing them at a time it deems appropriate.
Meanwhile, Ukraine added a new twist to the situation by hinting it may prevent Russian ships now off Georgia from returning to their bases in Sevastopol. Ukraine supports Georgia in the dispute.
Analysts link the Russian offensive to Kosovo, which recently declared its independence from Kosovo under western protection against vehement objectives from Serbia and Russia. If so, then those who suggest that Russia will now not leave South Ossetia and will guarantee its independence are correct.
The West continues to bluster The damage to the West's prestige and the consequences that will follow will be considerable. Russia has definitely won this round against the west in its resurgence, and Prime Minister/President/Czar Putin's popularity/authority in Russia will definitely increase.
0600 GMT August 10, 2008
Georgia Defeated, Withdraws From South Ossetia
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0230 GMT August 10, 2008
Russia Uses Strategic Bombers & Ballistic Missiles Against Georgia.
Russian Marine Infantry Preparing To Land On Georgia Coast.
Russia Prepares Parachute Brigade For Conflict Zone.
West's Response? "We're Going To Lie Back And Think Of England In Winter."
Russian Foreign Minister Praises American Restraint.
Your editor spent much time yesterday afternoon looking for a dead crow to eat. It turns out his information on Georgia was completely wrong, outdated by several weeks. As usual while he was not watching things changed dramatically.
First, a bit of background: Russia/South Ossetia have been doing their best to provoke Georgia in the past months, repeatedly violating Georgia air space and firing on Georgia outposts. Everyone knew that, and we knew US/EU was counseling Georgia to patience. What we did NOT know: the US had warned Georgia if it retaliated, it was on its own. Germany was already working behind the scenes to stop Georgia's entry into NATO because Berlin feared it would be dragged into confronting Russia.
Second, when Georgia retaliated, it was not with US/EU/NATO blessing. It was on its own.
So is it Goodbye Georgia?
Well, people, if the West wants to commit hara kiri, led by the US, at a time Russia is as weak as a sick kitty, then all we have to say is that the FSU nations who thought to ally with the West had best start negotiating their return back to the welcoming arms and large bosom of Mama Russ.
We are not saying the world is witnessing a second Munich 1938, because Georgia is a minor republic east of the West's new shield wall, which consists of Poland, Rumania, Bulgaria, the Czech and Slovak Republics, and East Germany, of course, is now back with Germany proper.
But very clearly the west has told Prime Minister/President/Czar Putin, it isn't prepared to stand up to him. The country can barely put two divisions, 50 combat aircraft, a dozen bombers, and fewer than a dozen warships into any operational area, but the west is behaving like Chicken Little, with less dignity.
That's fine, people, but five years from now Russia will have double the operational forces it has now, and ten years from now it will have four times the operational forces. It will still be only a medium sized power in military terms, but if the west cant face the pathetic Russian forces now, what's it going to do then? And having stared down the west now, the Russians will be very much less inclined to caution or compromise the next crisis around, and the next crisis will come around as surely as - whatever. And please dont forget our other friends, the PRC, who without doubt are watching this crisis intently.
Why was the editor so far off? Because the US has for two decades played a high stakes game on Russia's southern flank intended to control energy routes to Europe. Georgia is part of this effort. And here the US is simply wimping out as if the last two decades haven't happened.
So WHY is the US wimping out? Truthfully? No clue at all. We have heard many peculiar theories, none of which makes sense. A fave appears to be "President Bush has no interest in getting involved in another crisis as he is leaving office in a few months." Hello, people. Weren't some of you saying the other day that President Bush would attack Iran because he was leaving office. There is no such thing as Mr. Bush "does not want". There is no Bush policy on Georgia. There is a United States policy on Georgia, and the current president's whims and fancies, whoever he may be and whatever they may be, are irrelevant.
The reality is everyone is just guessing right now.
So back to our question: is it Goodbye Georgia? Depends where the Russian marine infantry will land and where the parachute brigade will deploy. If the target is Georgia proper, then it is indeed goodbye Georgia. If the target for the marine's is Abkhazia and the paras go to South Ossetia, it could also be Goodbye Georgia because this could be a precursor to the "valiant fighters" of Abkhazia and South Ossetia to invade Georgia proper in "self-defense" etc etc etc. The Russian moves could also be insurance in case anyone in the west is thinking of doing more than squeaking pathetically. At the same time, we dont favor this theory because it is obvious the west is going to do anything.
Military Situation We are unable to tell if Georgia has reinforced its brigade in South Ossetia. We know another brigade is in defensive positions between South Ossetia's capital and Georgia's capital. But we dont know what the brigade in the west, which was supposed to move to South Ossetia is doing. We assume now it will be required on the coast. Georgia's fourth brigade is in Iraq, and that's it: its fifth brigade is notational and composed of recalled reservists, who are also filling out territorial defense battalions at this time, but this last brigade is incapable of offensive operations. As far as we know, Georgia's special operations brigade is already in the Kodri Gorge and reinforcing, but we are not entirely sure.
Two or three reservists battalions are heading for South Ossetia, but for what purpose, we dont know,
The Russians have a mechanized brigade inside South Ossetia's capital, another brigade across the border and inside South Ossetia, a parachute brigade on the way, and a marine infantry battalion heading for the coast.
Abhkazia has about four battalions worth of militia, but they are backed up by Russian artillery.
Russia has complete control of Georgia's airspace and seaspace.
Military dead have been very light: 20-30 Russians and 50-80 Georgians. Civilian casualties are 100 Georgia dead and 200 South Ossetia dead, but that number is likely to change upwards because the Russians are in action in the area. Refugees to North Ossetia are less than 5,000. The Russian figures of 30,000 refugees, 1500 civilian dead, and claims of genocide are absolute nonsense and show only that Russian propaganda still hasn'tadapted to the modern world.
Your editor headed off to the airport with his backpack, favorite pillow, and Baby Leo (that's his most adventurous Teddy Bear), and a heaped wheelbarrow of Zimbabwe dollars. No cigar, though the British Airways ticketing agent did pay 50-cents for a Z$100-million bill, giving the editor a 200% profit. He was going to use it to light a cigar to impress his Saturday night date. Pity the Metro fare was $4.70 round trip, and the editor managed to find a discarded Metrocard with 30 cents remaining. Plus the editor has to report to school on Monday. There is no way he was going to make it to Georgia and back in time. Plus his passport has expired and the machine wouldn't accept his credit card. Not even a "You are over credit limit" message, the machine just acted as if the card didn't exist. When the editor got home he noticed the card had expired in 1997. Some days are like that.
0230 GMT August 9, 2008
[Breaking 18:30 GMT] Georgia has declared war on Russia.
Abkhazia, the other breakaway part of Georgia, opened an offensive against Georgia position in the Kodori Gorge, which is the defacto ceasefire line between the two antagonists.
Russian aircraft have bombed several military targets in Georgia, but also hit (presumably in error) apartment blocks in the port town of Poti. Georgia says 80 civilians are dead. [We mistakenly said Poti is the main port for Georgia: Batumi is the main port, Poti is the second most important and has oil transshipment facilities] Georgia says the port of Poti is destroyed.
Russia says the capital of South Ossetia was destroyed by the Georgian offensive and that 2000 civilians are dead. In our opinion, gauged by the level of fighting when the Georgia Army took the town, this figure is exaggerated by a factor of 10.
Russia says it has retaken the capital but Georgia denies this. It is likely the Russian claim is largely correct. Civilian casualties will now be mounting, because of the Russian habit of using large scale, indiscriminate firepower.
Some substantial part of Georgia's air assets have been destroyed, mainly trainers and helicopters.
Georgia claims 10 Russian aircraft shot down; the Russians admit to two. In our opinion, the Russian claim is closer to the truth, particularly as the Georgians have been able to show only the ID card of one pilot - he may be the one taken to hospital - and the body of another.
Please note that the South Ossetia capital is surrounded on three sides by Georgia proper. This is why it was easy to take. But in its counterattack, Russia has to move into Georgia proper, and this may be why the Georgians are claiming an escalation. Georgia's capital Tbilisi lies a short distance down the road from South Ossetia's capital. This fueling some speculation that the Russians may make for Tbilisi. This seems unlikely, but as many analysts are noting, the Russian decision-making process and the existence/alignment of factions in the Russian decision-making apparatus is so opaque, that it is difficult to tell what the Russians have in mind. A Russian newspaper has accused the Kremlin of supporting the interests of Russian capitalists and their investments in Caspian oil; at this time we are still to understand exactly what the paper is saying. Moreover, we are unfamiliar with the newspaper's lineage/ownership.
United States, which we expected would react strongly because it has invested so much time and money on Georgia has so far made no mention of military assistance. Some analysts say EU is wimping out big time.
[0230 GMT]South Ossetia No news of significance since our last update at 1830 GMT yesterday. Either the media is preoccupied with the Beijing games or little has happened.
No change in South Ossetia's capital; Russian forces (from 58th Army according to British media) still reported as approaching northern suburbs. South Ossetia militia says it has pushed the Georgia Army out, which is unlikely. Georgian troops have been seen leaving the battle area: retreat or redeployment? Hard to say.
Russia has bombed Tibsilsi, Georgia's capital, Poti, its main port, and Senak, which has both an air and an army base. Georgian claims include 2 or 4 Russian aircraft depending on source, despite plenty of eyewitness reports, Russians blandly say they have bombed nobody.
Georgia has asked the US to fly back 1000 troops from its Iraq contingent.
The Georgia government is about to declare martial law. Reserves are recalled
Rebels claim Georgia has killed 1000 civilians in bombardments against South Ossetia's capital; Georgia says this is propaganda and in truth the figure seems to be wildly off. South Ossetians are fleeing to North Ossetia, which is in Russia: Stalin divided Ossetia because it was causing him much grief, and this partition almost 80 years ago is part of the problem, as the South Ossetians say they want to be independent or part of Russia. The province has 70,000 people, by the way, which is about the size of a small Indian town or a mid-sized western town.
Back at The Ranch The terrorist Al-Sadr has told his followers to lay down arms and take up social work. This is a good sign, because the more peace and quiet there is in Iraq, the less justification the US has to prolong its stay. Insofar as Al-Sadr takes his orders from Teheran we can infer that Iran too is trying to avoid provoking the US into staying on.
The main reason everyone is all Peace N' Love in Iraq is the oil wealth: $70-billion a year and counting. We have no direct evidence, but Prime Minister Malaki may have begun to ladle out the money with some impartiality, instead of saving it for his own gang of terrorist and bandits. This would definitely reduce the incentive on anyone's part to continue on the path of violence.
But please note that the Prime Minister is still refusing to pay for the Sunni militias the US has raised.
What Was The Point Of Our Lengthy Series On The US Economy says a somewhat irate reader. Our bad: we got so carried away we failed to conclude. The point was simply that you cannot be world hegemon when your economy is headed so far south that soon we'll be having tea with the Kangaroos. In the coming decade, the US will not have as much freedom of action as did in the first decade of the 21st Century. In 2000 the economy was in good shape and the deficit was on its way down. If things continue as now, we'll be approaching banana republic status in terms of public debt to GDP.
Some people are saying - including the FHA lot - that there is another round coming of decreases in home values and that we are going to sink further into trouble in the next 1-2 years. Others may or may not agree, but are saying no one seems to know how much bad debt is actually out there.
Business Week says that wall street, after having messed up super big time, is now lobbying for new schemes to make it money, and one involving pensions looks like another bad idea. The thing is too complicated for us, otherwise we'd explain. Is it perhaps time to shoot a few of these Wall Streeters just to encourage the rest to behave themselves? we knew they wouldnt lay quiet for long, but their quick journey back to their scams is a bit of a surprise.
0230 GMT August 8, 2008
General Data's Georgia Army Orbat Updated to late 2007 is available at the discounted price of $12. Email the editor, payment via PayPal. This is an unclassified orbat; we regret at this time we are unable to make available a classified orbat, and in any case, it will be much too expensive for most people's purposes.
[1830 GMT] Russian forces have attacked Georgia with what we estimate as a mechanized brigade, supported by fighter aircraft. Russian troops have entered the northern parts of South Ossetia's capital. Georgian troops, who had captured the capital yesterday/today from separatist and Russian "volunteer" militias, are reported by media as withdrawing.
Russia has made strong statements saying that the Georgians are killing Russians including those with the Russian peacekeeping force in South Ossetia, and this is unacceptable to Russia.
Georgia says that the Russian troops have been massed on the border for months and were looking for a pretext to invade.
US/NATO etc. have called for all forces to cease fire, while saying they respect Georgia's territorial integrity. This is diplomatic speak for "the Russians must ceasefire and withdraw".
While some sources are blaming the Russian offensive for a sharp drop in Russian stocks, it appears that a scathing attack by Prime Minister Putin on a big Russian steelmaker is equally responsible, if not entirely responsible.
We're frankly a bit surprised at the overt nature of the Russian intervention - there is no way you can hide a mechanized brigade and fighter aircraft under the rubric of "volunteers". The Russians appear to have not read Orbat.com and do not know they were not supposed to make an open attack. What can we say - we tried, but now the Russians will have to pay the consequences. When you invade another country without international agreement, even if it to save your ethnic brothers, it becomes an invasion pure and simple and violates international law.
Lets see what happens: its early times as yet.
0230 GMT
Georgia Army Attacks Separatist South Ossetia which with Abkhazia is one of the two main separatist regions in the Republic of Georgia, with Russia working against Georgia and with rebels in both. Tension has been rising for months with both Georgia and Russia accusing each other of provocations. A third region, Ajaria, gives occasional trouble.
Georgia lies on Russia's West Caucuses flank and is wedged to the north of Armenia and Aijerbaijan, two other FSU republics in which Russia has much interest. Its a bit pointless to say its location is "strategic" because everything in that part of the world is strategic. Anyways.
Now, 15 years after the region broke away, the Georgia Army has attacked the South Ossetia capital, and by some reports has surrounded it. The usual exaggerated news reports talk of "heavy fighting". With 15 killed reported, total, there is no heavy fighting. We wouldn't even call this a skirmish. Anyhows.
Reports say Georgia Army is reinforcing its positions and that several hundred "volunteers" including Russians with armor are reinforcing South Ossetia.
Why has Georgia acted only now, after so many years? Politically because it fears the Russian Bear and has been uncertain how much support it can expect from its western allies. Militarily because the armed forces were terribly weak. But the military has for years been reshaping itself with US/NATO assistance, and Georgian troops have gained some combat experience in coalition operations. We are not in a position to say, in an unclassified discussion, exactly how much the Georgian Army has improved. Personally, we'd have given it two more years before taking the offensive, but we understand that Georgia has been pushed around so much by Russia that its credibility is at stake.
Has the US promised support? Yes. What is that support? We have no clear idea as yet. Has NATO/EU said it will step in if Russia counterattacks? The commitment is equivocal. while Georgia is not a full-fledged member of NATO, it is tied to NATO by dozens of separate agreements. The west is informally treaty-bound to come to Georgia's help should the Russian Army intervene. Which is why the Russian Army will not invade, and you will see "volunteers" instead. Given the Fraidy Cat manner in which the EU part of NATO operates, its very hard to tell at this stage to what extent NATO/EU will help.
Russia has many objectives in Georgia, but the most immediate one is to "dissuade" NATO from accepting Georgia as a member in November. We regret to say that the Russians really don't understand the west too well, because the one thing that is guaranteed if this crisis continues/escalates that the West will 100% sign up Georgia. NATO + US first focused on ripping away Russia's Eastern European shield, and after that they have been going after Russia's outer ramparts - Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Ukraine, Belarus, Ukraine
Now, before the rest of the media gets jazzed up about an imminent war, let us clearly say In Our Humble Opinion this is only an escalation from shoving and pushing and trash talking to throwing a punch or two. We think this will escalate a bit more and then everyone will back down and get back to talking.
From Georgia's side it is making clear that it cannot continue ignoring the secessionists - if it lets the two "nations" go fully separatist, the Russians will work to get other "nations" to secede and pretty soon you will have no more Georgia.
From Russia's side you can see the new Putin Doctrine (or the traditional Russian Doctrine if you prefer, all the way back to 1000 AD or so) at work. At the same time Mt. Putin is an impressively cautious man and in our opinion he is not about to risk an escalation to the point it's so "In your face Georgia" that the US/NATO has to escalate, in which case Russia will have to back down with big loss of face.
As with any crisis where all sides are playing chicken while bluffing, the whole thing could get completely out of controls and we'll have our first real post Soviet era crisis and a little lovely war.
But again, we think everyone is quite far from that stage. Each side has left the way open in multiple-ways to back down without losing face: Georgia, for example, has said it is willing to give South Ossetia autonomous status, and Russian "volunteers" can vanish as easily as they appear, giving Russia plausible deniability and "its the will of the South Ossetians to talk" and so on.
0230 GMT August 7, 2008
Okay, we spent 90 minutes reading up no fewer than 11 newspapers and the net result was: not one story of the least interest to anyone! But as your editor is highly compulsive, he can't just turn in an empty page. So prepared to be bored by irrelevance.
Zimbabwe No announcement was made after the talks yesterday between President Mugabe and opposition leader Mr. Tsavngirai, but the talks appear to have been cordial and both sides plan to resume.
As nearly as we can gather, Mr. Mugabe wants Mr. Tsavngirai to be a vice-president without any power, and Mr. Tsavngirai wants to be the real leader of the government with Mr. Mugabe as a ceremonial president.
Mauritania The army staged a coup against the democratically elected leader. We dont care what the army's issues are - and we have no particular knowledge or insight into this, being completely out of touch with former French West Africa - but this coup thing is unacceptable.
US has made Mauritania an almost front-line state in the GWOT and we hope Washington cracks down on the army.
India-Pakistan Some heightening of tension as agitators try and keep alive the closed incident of land to be given to a Hindu shrine to erect facilities for pilgrims, not to expand the shrine. In Kashmir, the Government of India follows a discriminatory policy that no outsider can buy land - this land was not be bought, just given for use, it would remain government land. This is a consequence of the 1947 articles of accession under which GOI promised this clause to then princely state ruler.
So when separatist Muslims began an agitation saying the government was not to let the shrine use the land, both the state and federal government immediately ran for the latrines experiencing grave stomach upsets, and emerged to revoke the land thing.
So there you have it: India is a secular nation, Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh is a multi-faith state, yet India permits Muslim fundamentalists to prevent other religions from practicing their faith - without the facilities for the pilgrims, visitors to the shrine have a really difficult time with accommodation, food etc. Kashmiri Muslims can buy land anywhere in India, no non-Kashmiri can buy land in that state. The fundamentalists are free to ethnically cleanse the Valley of Hindus, heaven forbid that the GOI should say a single word to the Muslims.
The issue is over, but some are insisting on keeping it going. GOI is running for the latrines again.
Meanwhile, 800 insurgents - almost all non-Kashmiri - are waiting to try and cross into Kashmir. This is why artillery duels are escalating across the ceasefire line: Pakistan artillery invariably covers infiltration and exfiltration.
Now wait a minute, you will say, didn't the Pakistanis promise they would stop infiltration? Yes, they did promise the US, and for a while they did deliver. But as we've told our readers, another big push by the Pakistanis is coming.
We dont blame the Pakistanis one bit for thinking they can push the GOI around, because GOI's record on retaliation is about the same as beating the Pakistanis with a single limp noodle. That too, beating a map of Pakistan with a limp noodle.
But whether or not the Pakistanis understand that 2008 is materially very different from 1987, 2000, 2002, when India blustered and did nothing, we have to tell our readers the situation from India's side is very different. India is ready, willing, and able to take on another assault, and this time, we are afraid, there is going to be retaliation. Neither GOI or the Army or the public are prepared to give way once again.
[Yeah, yeah, yeah, our Pakistani readers will say. Big talk again, huh? We've said they will be justified in thinking that based on past experience. Just be aware when retaliation comes, we told you about it well in advance.]
0230 GMT August 6, 2008
Zimbabwe Deal May Be Emerging The UK Independent says that a deal to give President Mugabe 30-months (opposition offer) to 5-years (ruling party demand) in office followed by immunity and a comfortable retirement may be agreed to today, as the President meets with opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai. Mr. Tsavngirai won the election vote earlier this year. President Mugabe refused to concede, staged another election, which the opposition boycotted, and won. But the cost for Mr. Mugabe was high, as the world prepares to tighten the already intense sanctions against his regime members, and outrage at his tactics escalated.
If an agreement is reached, Mr. Tsvangirai will be Prime Minister in an interim government that will prepare for new elections. Lets see what happens at the talks.
Sri Lanka Army Continues Advance Against Rebels says Reuters. It entered the rebel capital in the Jaffna Peninsula a few days back, and have taken more ground in the city.
The campaign has progressed to the extent its becoming more likely the rebels, for the first time, will be crushed. That doesn't mean they'll be finished, because they can revert to guerilla warfare, but the loss of the territory they ruled will weaken them tremendously.
We hear the Indian Government has an interesting role in this campaign against the rebels, which it once supported. Unfortunately, the one person who we know for a fact knows the entire story from the inside denies he knows anything more than the newspapers. Bother.
ROK Scientists In First Commercial Canine Cloning They made five identical puppies from the ear cells of a Hollywood lady's dead dog. The lady paid $50,000 and is ecstatic. She hopes the puppies have the personality of their father. Shows this Hollywood lady has the bucks, but no brains. You get a genetic identical copy but each of the doggies will have their own personalities and each will be different from dad.
The Koreans say they expect a market for 300 cloned pets this coming year, and the price will drop.
The Koreans say they are ready to clone camels for Arabs next. Please do not ask us what this is about, we're a family blog.
As is well known, human cloning was achieved some years ago. Bill Gates had himself cloned and there's 10 of him in freezers around the world. Pretty soon the old aphorism about the only certainty in life being death and taxes will have to be changed to "death, taxes, and Bill Gates".
Seriously, folks, we really are only a step away from human cloning if we aren't there already. All it needs is scientists sufficiently ethic-free that they are prepared to abort the likely dozens, scores, or even hundreds of clones that wont turn out right to give the one that does. In any case, they'll get that attrition down pretty soon.
We leave it you to ponder the ramifications for society. For the military, the ramifications are simple. If you join the army and the government makes ten copies of you, guaranteed, you know that if you die, you wont be dead. This wont make anyone readier to die, obviously, because You Prime may have clones You Double Prime, You Triple Prime, but dying for each will be as hard as it is for you or me. So its just insurance.
For spies, murderers, bereaved parents and cheating wives the benefits are much more obvious. Its most obvious for women who say their husbands are - er - insufficiently capable.
If you wanna be ahead of the curve, launch a "Freedom for Clones" website right now.
Zimbabwe Again The thing about being an ex-trillionaire is that you can't get over the past. So your editor was wiped out. So he is starting all over again. Friday last, the official rate US$1 = Z$2.50, after all the zeroes were wiped out. Today, the rate is already US$1 = Z$10 (Bloomberg). already a 400% devaluation in 4 days. With actual inflation running at 12.5-million% hopefully we'll be trillionaires again.
We're still trying to sort out the unofficial rate which was US$1 = Z$10 on Friday. On the last day before the 10 zeroes were knocked off, a loaf of bread cost US$2, or Z$200,000,000,000.
0230 GMT August 5, 2008
The British And Basra: Another Yawn-Inducing Story Times London carries a "scoop" saying that the reason British troops stood aside during the Iraqi Army's Basra offensive was because the British had made a deal with Mahadi Army not to enter Basra without its permission. US was supposedly "shocked" to learn of this arrangement.
Well, either Times London or US are among the world's greatest goofs if this thing came as a surprise. even we at Orbat.com knew of the deal, though obviously not all the deal. And as we've repeatedly emphasized, we're so behind the curve that by the time we come to hear of something, the entire world and her parakeet have the information.
Now, we know for a fact the US knew of the arrangement. So that leaves Times London as the goofs. But actually, we know for a fact Times London also knew of the arrangement.
So what's going on here? Only another pathetic attempt to create sensational news out of news.
We've said this a gazillion times. When US pacified Baghdad 2007-08, it had 8 of its own brigades and 10+ of the best Iraqi Army brigades. In Basra, which is the second largest city in Iraq, the British had one of their own brigades, and three useless Iraqi brigades that were infiltrated from top to bottom by Mahadi Army. And that lone brigade was also responsible for other cities. So what exactly do people expect that the British should have done? And don't forget, the British people have never accepted Iraq post-fall of Baghdad is their war. The majority would rather have their troops out. It is only loyalty to the US that has kept the British in Iraq.
British Women Are Different From American Women - and viva la difference. Read this story http://women.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/women/article4401876.ece. This Britain's most elite newspaper by the way, not a tabloid. For obvious reasons, such as this being a family newspaper, we will be unable to print readers' letters and comments.
From Ted Thomas on the economic issues we've been discussing I too am worried over the government spending… I like nothing better than to see a chainsaw taken to all of the federal government. Alas it’s not likely to happen anytime soon… about 8 years more or less, when SS runs out of money. Not surprising, that’s close to when I might look to retire. Not too likely that I’ll be able to.
And yes people spend too much… but that will be handled on an individual basis, and adjustments such as they might need to be made will be… family by family. You see one thing about America that is sometimes hard to understand is: economically out population is very mobile. To wit: at any given time only 1/3 of those below the poverty line have been there more than a year, or likely will be there in another year. The other 2/3 are moving / changing so that we never have a sizable ‘underclass’ So, someone might be fine today, loss a job, get sick, whatever… go through a ‘tuff’ year and then recover. Then they start spending again… and so it goes.
The two income families is more the product of the women’s movement that
anything else and the lower wages are a product of too many baby
boomers, male and female, all getting and holding jobs for too long.
This low wage cycle will break, is starting to break as the baby boomers
are retiring. As
for income you can see here:
http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-
That those with income below $30,000 total up to 48.5% so your number looks to hold. But a closer look at the TYPE of returns filed in these lower incomes shows that roughly half of those filers filed with a 1040 form… indicating more ‘complex’ tax issues… like those associated with investment incomes pensions and the like… including home ownership and the deduction of taxes associated with that. The other half are largely made up of part time workers like my oldest child filing the 1040 EZ form.
Are there some working poor making under 30,000 a year and trying to raise a family? I’m sure… but coupled with the income mobility I noted above, they are statistically small. But still, what does one need to do to make under 30k a year? Well we must pay new, no experience draftsmen right out of a two year post high school program 15 – 18 /hour. That’s over 30k a year. My daughter works at a 7-11 type store and makes 8.50 and hour. The assistant managers there make 40k a year to start with benefits. To make under 40k a year you must be at the bottom of the skill set barrel.
As far as wifi coverage, I’d need to see the statistics but I’ll wager that a big part of that is the shear size of the country vies-a-via those much smaller countries. That said, most of the US now can get wifi if they can get cell phone service. Check any cell service coverage map for info. Is most of Kansas without wifi? Maybe it is… but ‘nobody’ lives there.
[Editor mentioned to Mr. Thomas that US has fallen to 15 from Number 1 in terms of broadband. Should have clarified that this in terms of speed, not in terms of accessibility. Editor also opined that things will change starting about 10 years from now, nation will become more frugal, save more, and be more fiscally responsible. The thing is, we are all blaming Mr. Bush for the economic mess, but the overspending started with Mr. Regan, through Bush I, Clinton, and Bush II.]
From Anon On The BMD Paper and Pakistan Wow, Kingdoms and Thrones and Powers. Things like the BMD Corpo paper remind us of why as long as they're humans, there will be wars. People simply like shuffling borders, and concocting clever schemes for same, far too much to ever give it up, no matter how many UN commissions, lawyers and peace marches there may be.
That said.I will be the first to admit that (1) I know less about South Asia than I should, and (2) If have since 9/11 thought that the best solution to Pakistani instability would be for Pakistan to go away, and be swallowed up by India. That said, seeing what utter basket-cases Pakistan (and Bangladesh) are, why would India want them back, except to eliminate a persistent source of instability ?
Even if the collapse of Pakistan could be induced without a cataclysm, the expense to India of administering the places and keeping order would appear to be astronomical. Moreover, even if the Pakistanis haven’t been successful in creating something called “Pakistani” nationalism in sixty odd years, I wonder if the loss of independence to India would accomplish for Pakistani nationalism (whatever it is beyond a wish-dream of long dead Muhammad Ali Jinnah) what an independent Pakistan never could ? It would certainly give all the jihad loons -- the same people who insist that Andalusia is still Muslim – a new recruiting slogan.(And what sane person, anywhere, Afghan, Pakistani, Indian, whoever, would want NWFP ?)
As to Kashmir, I realize full well this is unlikely, but I really wonder if all parties to the dispute would not be better off doing a Germany/Poland solution, drawing an acceptable border someplace, exchanging populations, shooting the troublemakers on each side and having done ? I mean no offense – and would be glad to hear why this is a bad idea. [Editor: India may well accept this, but Pakistan cannot. Its the old problem: if you say Muslims can live peacefully in India, why then have broken up the country in 1947? If Pakistan lets Kashmir alone, the rationale for an indpeendent Pakistan gets weakened.]
Finally as to American history (and I confess up front that I am somewhat biased, being proudly southern and a descendant of Confederate soldiers), I’ve read Mr. Turtledove’s entertaining fiction on this subject, but I’m still not sure everything wouldn’t have worked out better in the long run had the CSA made good its secession. I don’t think slavery would have lasted, in any case, and once the slaves were gone, and the secession of the south accepted, what more did the parties really have to quarrel about ? Maybe there would have been a old-Euro style struggle for power: Since bad examples probably make good neighbors (e.g. modern Europe) I suppose in this hypothetical world, the more bloodless secession had been, the more the odds of a long term bad outcome would have improved.
Today, north and south are still quarrelling – the red state/blue state dichotomy that the political commentators bore us to death with every four years is little more than the South and the North carrying on the same old regional feud, which gobbles huge sums of money and really pleases nobody. The Yankees can’t have their New Euro nanny state, the Southerners can’t have their redneck night watchman state. Now it may be better for everybody that present arrangements please nobody (that’s my suspicion, btw) but we also have to have an empire abroad and a government that cannot do anything of any real consequence with any competence domestically, so that we keep from each other’s throats.
Editor: We've misplaced an perceptive analysis of the housing/mortgage crisis sent to us by a reader. Could the reader please send it again?
0230 GMT August 4, 2008
Al-Qaeda's Top Explosives/Chemical Weapons Expert Confirmed Dead says BBC. Last week the US struck a house in Pakistan's border region while the Pakistani PM was in the Washington to see Mr. Bush - bit awkward and so on. The rumors then were that al-Masri, and Egyptian national had been killed in the strike. Now an AQ message says he has indeed joined the "caravan of martyrs" but "fortunately" has left behind many bomb-makers he trained.
Lowest Iraq Civilian Deaths in 2007, less than a thousand. Not bad.
US May Need 90 ABM Ships as opposed to the 18 planned, says a US Navy admiral. Currently 15 ships with 30 missile interceptors are in the fleet; production of the Standard 3 interceptor missile is expected to double by 2015.
PRC To Become Tops In Renewable Energy Spending says media. In 2007 it invested $12-billion in Green Power, second to Germany, but in 2009 it will be world leader.
And about time too: 20 of the world's 30 most polluted cities are in PRC. China being China, it is planning to get 15% of its energy from green sources by 2020 not because it has caved to western pressure, but because its own citizens are suffering. Regarding the west's demands, a PRC spokesperson had a reasonable counterargument the other day: if the west cant do more on green energy than it is, why expect China to do more? Good point.
BTW, someone told us in passing the other day China needs to step up efficiency of energy use rather than continue its massive generating capacity. This person said China can more than double current GDP without adding more plants.
So you've been waiting for a Warp Drive? Wait no more, because someone has figured out the outlines. You'd warp the 11th Dimension of M-theory around your spaceship, and space itself would move faster than the speed of light. You wouldn't violate Einstein's e = mc2 which says mass increases as speed increases, so you can never reach the speed of light because as your speed goes to lightspeed, mass required for propulsion goes to infinity.
So, behind your ship you'd create a bubble of dark energy by shrinking space, which would zoom around your ship faster than light. This is how the universe in its infancy expanded faster-than-light. Then when you need to slow down, you'd expand space ahead of you.
Before you start saving up money for a warp drive, there is a small problem. To send one spaceship on one journey, you'd have to turn a Jupiter size mass entirely into energy. And the technology to achieve that may take millennia. http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2008/07/28/warp-speed-engine-02.html
James P Freemon on Privacy in America We'd said that "...its a simple matter to eliminate cash and require cards for all transactions,
0230 GMT August 3, 2008
We have a number of letters from readers; patience, each will be discussed.
Flymike asks why the US won't protect its border to stop illegal...
...immigration. We put this question to our Marxist friend because he usually has a unique and uncannily accurate analysis. Of course, you have to listen to him for four hours before getting a single answer because he has to explain the history and context of any subject back to the Big Bang.
He said that US wealth up to the end of the 1960s depended on its manufacturing sector. This provided enough for a high domestic standard of living, and a very healthy surplus for export.
During the 30-year period 1940-1970, thanks to the World and Cold Wars, the US reigned supreme in manufacturing and and had limited competition. So it had no incentive to innovate.
By 1970, the Europeans and Japan, devastated by World War II, had recovered. Because they had to compete against the American goliath, they created innovative manufacturing that not just beat American goods on price, but also on quality. By 1980 American economic soothsayers could see big trouble on the horizon. To keep the American economy growing and to maintain the standard of living, the US had two choices. One, enter the export market in a sustained fashion and compete vigorously with Japan and Europe. Two, expand domestic consumption by giving domestic consumers more credit.
Now, to most of us the manufacturing/export route would be the one to take. But the geniuses that dictated the course of the economy decided there was more money to be made on the credit route: not only would consumers buy more - and planned obsolescence and marketing would keep them wanting more and more, like drug addicts - but the financers would make whacking great amounts on the credit they extended.
From the viewpoint of workers, this did not work out well. First, the consumer credit explosion created a huge number of service jobs, but they were worth much less to the worker in terms of wages and benefits than manufacturing jobs. Second, because of the lack of innovation in American manufacturing, increasingly the only way for capitalists to make money was to push down wages.
Wages are tied to supply and demand, you cant just push them down. Someone came up with a genius idea. During World War II, America lost 12-million working men to the military. The gap had to be filled by women. When the war ended, Rosie the Riveter dutifully gave up her job to Roger the Riveter, newly returned from the war and went back to looking after the house. But once people have tasted freedom, you can't confine them again, and in the 1960s and 1970s there was this enormous upsurge called feminism. Feminism became a bad word because of the femiterrorists who made the issue one of beating down the oppressive males, but all it represented was a very reasonable demand by women for equal opportunity.
So someone - obviously there no one person - had this genius idea: get more women into the labor force, wages will fall. The capitalists succeeded to the point Americans became divided into the have and have-nots, with the haves constituting a tiny percentage of the population, and the have-nots just about everyone else. America now has the highest percentage of working women in the industrialized world. But wages went down and thanks to advertisers, more and more "wants" became "needs" and then became "minimum required to survive", so the demand for consumer products kept expanding while wages kept decreasing. Huge profit for the capitalist class, but for the working class, every house needed both mom and dad to maintain the standard of living.
Thanks to the influx of cheap labor, again there was no urgency in attending to manufacturing, and innovation languished even more.
Had this trend continued, by 2000 the US would have been in economic crisis because in addition to the Japanese/European competition, US had to face competition from low wage China. US manufacturing became even more unimportant, the economy was kept growing only by more consumer spending - and information technology.
By 1990 just about everyone understood the revolution IT could bring, and the US economy not only of a sudden created massive demand for new goods and services, the ubiquitous use of IT pushed American productivity to new levels. So did the capitalists use their new money to rebuild America's manufacturing capacity, that was already gutted by 2000 and then destroyed over the next 8 years? No. They used their money to make even more money in finance, and to come up with new ways of putting the ordinary Joe and Jane under even more credit debt. It has gotten to the stage where the typical American is little more than an indentured servant and doesn't even realize it.
By 2000 along came a Big Problemo: the rest of the world jumped on IT so hard that any American gains were not just matched, but exceeded by our competitors.
Okay, now we need to back off a bit. Due to a combination of circumstances, in the 1980s immigration from south of the border began to grow. Two factors were notable. First, the immigration reform of 1986 created a situation where Mexicans could no longer migrate north for part of the year, make their money and go home, to return another year. They had to stay put in the US. And understandably, they wanted their wives and children to join them, and their wives wanted their brothers to come and so. Second, the refugees from the Reagan Wars brought a new class of Latin Americans to the US, the Central Americans. And people soon figured there was no immigration enforcement, and we got a flood of illegal immigrants that in 10 years changed the demographics of every American city.
So back to Flymike's question. Our Marxist analyst says it is not in the interests of the capitalist class to control immigration. With essentially all the women available to work already working, America's Third World type low-wage economy is now kept going by immigrants, legal or otherwise.
Specific to immigration, whole new classes of Americans have come to "benefit", not just the capitalists. Incidentally our friend is very clear that a small business owner is not a capitalist. Making a profit is not the same thing as being a capitalist. The immigrants take so little money that any upper-middle class person can now afford part-time labor for a myriad of tasks. And of course, people reach the upper-middle class when both spouses work, so neither has time to do traditional chores, and - a separate issue - since parents have no time to cook, everyone eats out at every opportunity, which boosts the exceedingly low-wage fast-food sector and so on.
Much to the editor's surprise, his Marxist friend also blamed Democrats for resisting immigration control. First, he said, it doesn't follow that if you are a capitalist you are a Republican. Second, immigration boosts the Democrat vote because a whole slew of "liberal" people find profit in working on behalf of immigrant "rights", particularly "rights" of illegal immigrants. Immigrants remember at vote time who is on their side. And Democrats need to get their lawns mowed, houses cleaned, and so on as much as Republicans.
So, says our friend, the sole constituency against unrestrained immigration is the working class, and they no longer have power in America.
Since yet another study has come out saying immigration does not depress wages, we asked our Marxist friend to comment. He laughed and said "come on, you're the one always telling people American studies are not worth the paper they're written on. Use your common sense if you have any left after living in that Devil's Den of Inequity, Washington DC, for 20 years. If America had 20-million people less right now, which would happen if we controlled illegal immigration and tightened the criteria for legal immigration, do you really think wages would not go up? Wasn't it you telling me the other day your high school students are finding it hard to get jobs with low skills because for every one of your students there are two immigrants willing to work for the same wage?"
Now, folks, the editor wants you to take his Marxist friend's outline above in proper context. He is vastly simplifying a complex problem. But if we do as Americans now do, take one tiny part of any problem and critique it to death in complete isolation from the rest of the problem, we miss the big picture. In America we have become narrow-band advocates with neither knowledge nor concern for how our pushing for a very narrow interest hurts the rest of our community. Try and look at his argument in a broad context, not pick on just one part of it, because there is no way in which he could cover in four hours every objection you might raise.
Actually, he could, given time: this man knows so much and has such analytical powers that if you have an unlimited duration argument with him, you are going to lose as sure as the Divine made little orange tangerines or whatever. He is as capable of attacking you on your narrowband facts as on narrowband worldviews. The best way to deal with people like him is something American PR has mastered, and the Bush administration better than anyone else. Keep the debate very short, and work to keep the discussion aligned with your agenda, and the truth can go hang.
We hope Flymike, who is definitely not a Marxist or a liberal, sees some answers to his questions in the conversation above.
0230 GMT August 2, 2008
Iraq: Good Luck For Mr. Bush For A Change Mr. Bush has had a very unlucky 8 years in office. Of course, with the exception of 9/11, all his troubles are of his own making, so we don't feel sorry for him, we feel sorry for America which now has live with the consequences for at least a decade more. Mr. Bush, meanwhile, will be relaxing and being his usual charming self.
The absolute rejection of the US's plan to permanently colonize Iraq was making Mr. Bush and Co. look like complete ditzs, but finally luck has come his way.
In July, five (5) US soldiers died in Iraq. So Mr. Bush is able to say that he sees possible more troop withdrawals, and will wait General Petraueus' recommendations. The extremely low casualty figure and general calm in Iraq has saved the White House's hamburgers (we can't say bacon because Muslims decree the pig as unclean) because the US can now show to the Iraqis they are indeed withdrawing as demanded by the Iraqis.
We have no accurate information, but it seems that two of the 10 brigades may not replaced when their tours end, giving a figure of around 8 brigades by the middle of 2009. If the situation continues as now, the Iraqis are going to want most combat troops out by 2010. If it worsens, the US will have the opportunity to argue it should still keep a large force in-country, though what the point would be is unclear: the Iraqis are not going to become America's aircraft carrier in the Middle East. If the situation worsens, they will step up to the plate themselves - as they should.
As everyone is warning, the gains are very fragile. 4 million Iraqis are still in exile, aside from oil money there is little other activity, while security is much better overall, that doesn't change the stark reality for Iraqis, that they live in a very dangerous place.
But we continue to argue that the US should now refuse to make Iraqi problems into American problems. Let the Iraqis stand on their own feet, help them as they want, for the rest, get out of the way before we are booted out. some are suggesting that the Iraqis have consistently proved over-optimistic concerning their capabilities and this is why the US should stay. Tut tut. Forgetting we are guests in Iraq, are we? It is not our business to tell the Iraqis what to do and think. We can give friendly advice, if the Iraqis don't listen, its not our concern.
We suggest to readers they not be unduly concerned by the 50 civilian deaths last week. This sort of nonsense will go on for years.
Indo-US N-Deal The editor has been bemused throughout this N-deal business. It has now been passed by the Indian Parliament and awaits Congress's pleasure. US is already turning the screws on India over its energy ties with Iran, the Indians are getting agitated, and if Congress nixes the deal on account of the anti-Iran and anti-nuclear interest groups, the Indians are going to go bananas.
Why are on earth are the Americans investing so much political capital in the deal and taking so many risks when they are not going to get any real business out of the agreement?
Wait a minute, you will say: why shouldn't the Americans get business? Shouldn't the Indians be grateful the US has pushed the deal through? Gratitude in politics, my dears, is a commodity hard to find. Its all about self-interest.
The Americans won't get real business because - cof cof cof - we don't know how to break it to Americans, who are a proud lot of folks, but their N-technology is a wee bit, um, shall we say, outdated?
What the heck, let's speak the truth here, our readers at least are tough folks, they can take it. American N-technology is quite obsolete, by about 30 years. You know the reasons, after Three Mile Island the anti-N-power lot managed to get planned new plants scrapped, and even near-finished plants scrapped. The lobby was, of course, aided by dirt cheap oil, which when you added up the civil liabilities US plants faced as compared to plants in other countries, made N-power uneconomical and subsidy-dependent.
So its France and Russia will get the biz, both have been merrily putting up N-plants hither, thither, and yon.
Absurdity Alert USS Houston, a 688 class attack boat, was found to have leaked five microcuries of radiation on to a sailor's leg while she was undergoing maintenance. The amount was so small it couldn't be detected on the sailor, and the Navy says its less than the radiation dose you get from a bag of fertilizer. Nonetheless, since the boat has been hopping around the Pacific, including a stop at Japan, the US has dutifully alerted the Japanese government. Now wait for the Japanese and American anti-n-reactor lobbies to make this into a major scandal.
Zimbabwe Breaks The US Dollar to Local Money Record Pardon us for being obsessed with this issue, but day-before Mrs. Rikhye found out that US$1 was worth Z$100-billion, and was extra sneerful about the editor's claim that he was a Zim trillionaire. The editor's sensitive feelings were deeply wounded. A situation not helped when the editor heard his Teddy Bears laughing their heads off after they read yesterday's From Hero To Zero post. When even your Teddy Bears dont respect you, things are reall bad.
Anyway, where were we? Oh yes. In 1923, the German mark fell to 173-billion to the dollar. This was the low point of the 1920-1924 hyperinflation.
When you consider that Zim had slyly knocked three zeroes off in 2006, its money at the end of July came down to 100-trillion to US$1. So, unless someone knows better, we think Zim holds the world's record in terms of devalued currency.
By the way, the editor writes in such a hurry he makes mistakes and then feels bad about them. No more. The media was referring to Zim droping 10 zeroes on August 1 as a devaluation. Any idiot knows that is a revaluation, not a devaluation. And the media idiots actually get paid a living wage.
0230 GMT August 1, 2008
Handling Pakistan
So what is the solution to the Pakistan problem? Containment. India has already fenced off most of its western border. It needs to do the same thing along the Nepal/Bhutan/Sikkim/Northeast border, and also the Bangladesh border. US needs to fence the entire West Pakistan border.
Minute we say "fence border", readers will be tempted to say: "But everyone knows fencing borders doesn't work."
Hmmmm. Tell that to the East Germans who tried after 1961 to cross the Inner German Border to refuge in the West. Actually, fences work very well, you simply have to be prepared to gun down anyone attempting to cross, no Miranda warnings, no distinguishing between potential terrorists and women, children, old people in wheelchairs, whatever. Make clear to those manning the border that if they fail to shoot on sight, they're liable to be doing 14 years hard in a nice military jail. They will shoot on sight.
How horrible, you will say. True. But its a lot less horrible than breaking up Pakistan.
And this has never been a better time to construct hermetically sealed borders, thanks to all sorts of new but tried and true technology.
The problem will lie not with the India side, but with the American. Americans believe that technology will solve all their problems with such fervent passion that they are blind to the limitations. You have to adequately man your highest tech border. That doesn't mean a 4-man patrol yawning up and down a 10-km section. It means deploying a battalion every 8-20 kilometers. For India that would mean perhaps 600 border battalions. But when you add up what India already deploys on its borders, you get to about 300 battalions anyway.
America will need to deploy not less than 100 battalions on the Afghan side - they can be Afghan, but you'll need more in that case.
Impossible, Americans will say. Okay, then you go ahead and you break up Pakistan. Don't ask the Indians to participate.
What do we mean by "border fence"? We certainly don't mean the two-strand barbed wire fence strung on locally-cut tree branches that passed for a border fence in Kashmir for decades. We mean the good-old triple barrier, electrified to kill, power backed up so that breaching Point A doesn't mean the power goes off along the entire 10-km section or whatever. It means filling the gap between the first and second fences with anti-personnel mines, 10-million or more. It involves sensor by the truck-load - not one kind, but several different kinds, so that you have many levels of redundancy. It means intensive foot, vehicles, and air patrols. It means enough UAV's in the air - at several altitudes and redundancies - that it looks like Chicago O'Hare at rush hour.
Okay, so this going to cost billions of dollars a year to construct and maintain. How much did the proponents of the "Break Up Pakistan" plan say their plan would cost? They don't, because if they at all they do the sums, it is all about initial costs, a la Iraq. That would supposed to cost $50-billion. It will cost a trillion. And if Pakistan is broken up, the mess is going to be whole lot bigger and a whole lot more expensive.
By now our readers will be jumping up and down and saying "But what about the indigenous terrorists? A fence can't control them because they're inside the fence to begin with."
True. That is why India has to go biometric. You're going to end up with a Minority Report situation. Two points here.
Won't this destroy the very idea of what India is about, a country where you can move around as you like, run free, be anonymous with no one keeping track of you for any reason? Yes it will. It will be very sad, and if anyone can come up with less intrusive ways to identify every single person, we're all for it. The reason that terrorists today can wreck such havoc in India is precisely because India is not a police state in the way the US is, and the Euros in many respects even more than the US.
The second point is that if Pakistan is broken up, terrorism is going to escalate manifold: you'll still have to build all the barriers and monitor every citizen - on even larger scales than required if you leave Pakistan alone.
But wont this mean completely changing the nature and face of Indian policing? Absolutely. And isn't it about time Indian policing was brought into the era of crime-prevention/crime-detection instead of the mind set it still functions under, the colonial-era of mob control?
Anti-terrorism operations are a lot like area anti-submarine warfare operations in that you have several barriers, each one of which imposes a mathematical cost to the intruder as he infiltrates and exfiltrates. No single barrier is going to stop every terrorist. But you add up the attrition each barrier causes, and the combined effect will be a powerful deterrent.
A comment on American "privacy" There might have been a good degree of privacy in America before 9/11, but certainly no more. Every aspect of our lives is tracked: internet use, phone calls, financial transactions, video rentals, hotel stays, visits to the 711, doctor's visits, medicines we use, academic records, traffic violations, on and on and on. It will get even worse if by chance America sees a few big terror incidents. Use of security cameras is increasing rapidly, you will see the whole country wired up. The person who pays cash can still avoid attention, but its a simple matter to eliminate cash and require cards for all transactions. Certainly people will steal identities and cards and driving licenses and so on. But biometrics will defeat almost everyone. If each time you go shopping you are identified by your card and your card is identified by you, stolen identities will not work. In other words, if I have stolen Ms. Jennifer Lopez's financial transaction card, the checkout counter will catch me when I am scanned and mismatch the Jennifer Lopez profile at every step except height.
I can hear everyone going "the horror, the horror". That's life in the 21st Century.
