0230 GMT April 30, 2008

• 24th MEU Begins Offensive In Helmand says the Baltimore Sun. The Marines are operating in the Garmsir area and their first target was a Taliban command post. The core of the MEU is provided by 1/6th Marines and includes a LAV company and an aviation unit, presumably helicopters. The offensive pushed the Taliban into a corner of their compound after all-day fighting. No word yet on casualties for either side.

• Seems as if NATO has decided to preempt the expected Taliban spring offensive. additionally NATO forces kept attacking all through the winter, the traditional campaign rest period in Afghanistan.

• While we are delighted to learn of the Marines offensive, we owe it to our readers to note that all 24th MEU will do is buy a little time. The Taliban continues to gain strength and the overall security situation continues to deteriorate.

• You either expand the war to west Pakistan or you seal the border. Either option requires large numbers of additional troops. The Afghan Army is coming along nicely, but the police, civil administration, and general reconstruction efforts are not working except in isolated oases. As long as the Taliban has secure bases for R and R - rest and rearm - there will be no progress. Moreover, you have a recruiting base of 170-million Pakistanis. You can knock off 10,000, 20,000 or more Taliban a year, it makes no difference because those losses are easily replaced.

• Yes, Afghans are far better off than under the Taliban. The problem is once you show a man all the possibilities that life has to offer, he no longer sets his baseline in the Taliban era. Further, horrifically brutal as the Taliban were, they brought peace to the land. Yes, it was the peace of the grave in many respects, as was the case in Iraq. If people don't have physical security, however, nothing else matters.

• We have to say that the Afghans are quite different from the Iraqis in one respect. The Afghans never had anything, so they lack the sense of entitlement the Iraqis have. They have gone through near seven years of war with scarcely a complaint. There is, however, no way around the eternal truth that a man has to live. Unless you can 100% assure him the Taliban will not kill him the moment you withdraw, and unless you can assure him of food and very basic necessities like a rough kind of medical care, he will not stop cooperating with the Taliban and he will not stop taking the work the Taliban offers.

• Order Returns To Basra UK Media reports that while the initial Iraq offensive may have failed, progress is continuing and that order is returning to this lawless city. In our view, it is the committal of US/UK troops that has helped stabilize the situation.

• But clearly there is more happening. Why have Badr and Fahdila militias suddenly gone quiet? They were as much part of the mayhem as was Sadr militia and were just as criminal.

• The below may offer clues.

• Jim Kayne On "Lawrence Of Iran" Reader Kayne forwards this article containing musings on how Lawrence might have looked at the current Gulf situation. We agree with some parts of the analysis and not with others, but the part that struck us was quoted by Mr. Kayne in his email [underlining ours]:

• Right now two countries which most definitely do not have a friendly outlook towards the United States most of the time, have a vested interest in sustaining, and if need be fomenting, a certain level of violence within the boundaries of Iraq.

• If Lawrence were still around, working as a strategist for the Iranians, for example, he would certainly be advocating this position. After all, so long as the greater part of the land combat power of the United States is consumed in attempting to squelch violence in Iraq, those forces cannot be used elsewhere. He would, as he did along the Hejaz railway, recommend calibrated support to agitated elements inside Iraq. His advice to his higher command would be that they never allow the pressure to drop so much that we withdraw after declaring a victory, nor raising the pressure so high that we actually quit the place. Iraq, through the eyes of Lawrence, is our Medina."

• Basra/Sadr City In Light Of The Above Quote The Iranians fund all Shia groups in Iraq, and that includes the three Basra groups: Badr, Sadr, and Fahdila militias. If Basra has gone quiet, it has to be because the Iranians have told all three groups to cool things. It is hard to believe with the limited fighting that went on, the ~15,000 Sadr militia has been defeated.

• Similarly, in Sadr City, the fighting is low scale. Could it be that the Iranians have told Sadr militia to keep it down in Sadr City as well?

• Now, there could be reasons that have nothing to do with Iran leading to the feeble defense Sadr militia is putting up in Sadr City which is, after all, its home base. The most plausible to us seems to be the notion that al-Sadr is determined not to play Malaki's game and give the latter an excuse to shut him out of the political process. In other words, he has learned that while the sword is mighty, parliament is mightier.

• Another reason which also seems to be plausible is that since Sadr militia knows it will lose, it has decided to law low till the US starts reducing troops. after all, guerillas do not fight on the enemy's terms. In Sadr City the situation is clearly determined by the US. How and who Sadr militia allowed this to happen is not part of our concern in this comment.

• But suppose that Iran has also told Sadr that they will not support him in a Baghdad battle at this time. Some analysts have been reading Iranian cautions against Al-Sadr as evidence he is no longer in favor with Iran.

• The quote above provides an alternative explanation. If Iran went all out in Iraq at this time, staging a Tet Offensive, the US public which is already pretty fed up could well insist on an end to the US ground involvement in the war. We've been thinking all along that a Tet is what Iran wants.

• But after reading the above, we wonder: Why would Iran want to stage a Tet in April, when the really decisive time will be just before the November elections? And perhaps Iran does not want to get the US out of Iraq.

• Look at it this way. US says its better to fight Al Qaeda in Iraq than to fight them in America. Isn't it possible that Iran thinks exactly the same thing, i.e., better to fight the US in Iraq rather than have them directly gunning for Iran proxies in Palestine and Lebanon and Syria?

0230 GMT April 29, 2008

• Iraq US continues to drive into Sadr City. Sandstorms are affecting the pace of the operation and give insurgents a chance to resume rocket/mortar attacks on the Green Zone. US normally uses helicopters to react rapidly to an attack, with the storms, the helicopters get grounded.

• We asked Bill Roggio of www.longwarjounal.org what was going on between the US and Al-Sadr. Mr. Roggio says the US is working to split sub-groups of the Mahadi Army from al-Sadr. He believes the strategy is working.

• Our response is: thank goodness the US is finally getting smart about Iraq. None of this in any way excuses the fantastic mistakes the US has made, including the failure to commit sufficient troops. None of this changes our opinion the US should no longer stay in Iraq. None of this makes us take back our rhetorical statement that if Iraq is an example of the US's military/political/diplomatic learning curve, we'd still be fighting World War II.

• All that said, better late than never and all that. Good show.

• US Preparing Iraq and Afghanistan Offensives?  Chris Raggio forwards this article which uses US Navy fleet movements to predict the US is planning major offensive in Iraq and Afghanistan.

• We asked Mr. Raggio's opinion, as he also tracks USN movements. There has been altogether too much prediction these last few years which has failed to materialize. Mr. Raggio's reply was currently he prefers to wait and see.

• The Editor's very first defense analyst type job was precisely to track US Navy movements and then make predictions. He used to be quite proud that he rarely made a mistake. Looking back 40 years, however, it occurs to him that things were a lot simpler in those days and the job was probably much easier. The West Asian situation is very complex and there is much gesturing by all parties including the US.

• It is as if a battle is being fought without anyone engaging. This was common in the Middle Ages, where you'd maneuver your forces, skirmish and clash, and then sensibly decide on the basis of forces, positions etc that one side had won and the other had lost. Everyone then got together and had a big blow-out party and everyone went off. There were reasons for this, including - in our opinion - there existed a fellowship of chivalry that cut across national and partisan lines. So it was rather rude to actually hack your fellowship member to bits just because he happened this time to be on the wrong side. And taking the other fellow prisoner was the preferred option because you got ransoms to release him. And it really wouldn't do if you treated him badly while he was in your custody because then his side would have it in for you should you get captured. You'd have to fight to the death to avoid capture, and this was not Nice.

• What most histories/romances and so on don't tell us is that this chivalry was operative only between the highborn. It was absolutely A-OK to slaughter the draftee peasants on both sides, and both sides did this with merry abandon. So how bloodless these encounters were in reality can be questioned.

Syria, Israel, US, Preemption and Rogue States

• Syrian N-Reactor Capacity 1-2 N-Weapons Year says Reuters, quoting the CIA director. This means the actual capacity - had the reactor been built/operationalized - was 1 weapon every five years. (The CIA is not saying that, we are.) Of course, after Syria learned the basics it would have expanded the reactor but once the cat was out of the bag re. their intentions this would have been difficult.

• The weakness of the argument is frankly acknowledged by the Director and we congratulate him on his honesty. If you read the story you will see he clearly says the information came from Israel.But, we are sorry to say, Israeli intelligence is better termed Israeli Misinformation. It needs to be thrown straight into the dumpster.

• This is not because Israeli intel is bad. It is very good. So much so that the Israelis shamelessly manipulate it knowing people will say "But Israeli intel is very good, so this has to be true." Really? Then we really need to talk about how the Israelis manipulated the WMD Iraq data to get the US to do what Israel could not, i.e., whack Saddam. In fairness, we have to say the Arabs were also complicit, particularly the Saudis.

• And at the same time we need to understand that while the US is squarely throwing the responsibility on the Israelis, the US is also complicit because it does not care if the evidence was manipulated. US was looking for a chance to whack Syria, but could not afford to expand the Gulf War by staging so blatant a provocation. So it let the Israelis do the job.

• Okay, does this mean if the US had demurred Israeli would have aborted? Obviously not. Israel would have gone ahead anyway on the principle better safe than sorry. Had the Syrians escalated, the US would have come to Israel's rescue regardless of what the US position was pre-strike.

• But this point was moot, because the US-Israel were looking for escalation to justify a full-scale wipe-off-the-map of Syria. But the US-Israel plan failed in the larger objective because the Syrians refused to escalate.

• The Israelis came out ahead because the reactor, potential or actual threat, was now gone. US's name is Mud, because every Arab assumes the strike was at worst at the US's behest and at best conducted with 100% American complicity.

• Our position? We do not doubt Syria wants N-weapons as do scores of other countries. We do not doubt the DPRK lot are a perfidious bunch who see every attempt to talk, negotiate, agree as a weakness that must be exploited. So we don't doubt the Norks were helping the Syrians. We also believe both the Syrian and Nork leadership needs to be sent to the Great Retirement Home In The Sky. Our biggest gripe with the US mess in Iraq is that any chance of whacking Iran, Syria, DPRK is deader than the Dodo.

• So why are we saying the evidence of Syria's N-designs is slim? Because, people, it is. What we think about Syria and want done to Syria has no relevance to the evidence. As propaganda, by all means the US should say what it wants. But our job is analysis, not support of US propaganda. Though, of course, if the US paid us well enough, we are sure we could be persuaded to see reason.

• The biggest problem with the "evidence" is that the Israelis have not said a word. The Israelis are hardly known for their modesty. If there was anything of substance to the N-reactor thing, Israel would have been running around thumping its chest.

• For example, there was no evidence of a reprocessing plant. When natural uranium is turned to plutonium inside a Pu production reactor, the rods are so radioactive you have to dump them immediately into a cooling pond and reprocess them as close to the production site as possible. You do not want to be transporting the rods all over the place. Now, the lack of the reprocessing plant is hardly conclusive. Syria may not have seen the need to put up the facility now and warn everyone years ahead of when it would not have plutonium to work with.

• If, however, you are going to work on the principle that any potential threat to your security has to be preempted regardless of its immediacy , then you undermine the world order and you become the rogue state. Then others have to get together and whack you. Israel is lucky no one can whack the US, but others have ways of getting back at the US and they use these ways.

• When the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor in 1941, they were only preempting what to them was a future  US attack. You will say: "Huh? On Earth 49B in Universe 91BXB this might have been the case, but not on our Earth in our universe."

• Not really. The US had already put an oil embargo in place against Japan, and had made it very clear the Japanese invasion/occupation of China was unacceptable. Thanks to the European War, the US had already embarked on the greatest mobilization in history. What would you do if you were the Japanese? Wait for the the US to make the first strike, say in 1946 when the US would be invincible, or take your chances for better or worse in 1941 when the Eagle was just starting to wake?

• But Japanese imperialism was just plan wrong, you say. America had a right to oppose Japan.

• See, if that is the way you're going to define the world, then you have to be ready for the grief you get. Just as Italy felt it had been done out of a colonial empire in the 19th Century and started building one in the 1930s, Japan also felt left out and in its eyes was simply making up for lost time. Just because US, UK, France etc had changed the rule of the game and said "Bad boy, we built our empire but you cant build yours" doesn't mean the Japanese agreed with this. Consequently the Japanese and - in their own way the Germans - preempted and became the rouge states of their time.

• If you look back, a massive collision between the US and Germany/Japan was absolutely inevitable. The US was becoming the greatest power in the world. If World War II had not begun in 1939/1941, it would have begun 10 years or 20 years later. But it would have happened. The collision between the US and the Soviet Union was so evident to the world that the US military, at least, would not have been one bit taken aback if it had been ordered to advance East to the Urals from Germany. Circumstances saw to it that the collision remained largely non-fatal till the Soviets lost. And BTW, had US gone to war against the USSR, Hiroshima and Nagasaki would have looked like kindergarten plays. The US would have wiped Russia off the map. But that is irrelevant to what we are saying here.

• You have to draw a balance between guaranteeing your security and preempting. Its an immensely difficult job. We don't get paid to worry about the right balance so we are not going to say what our solution to the Syrian N-reactor might be.

• Two last matters. When the US went into Indochina II, that was preemption too. Up to Korea, most of the world looked at America as a savior. But Vietnam changed that. Just about every third world country and a lot of the first world saw the US move as aggression. In those days people didnt use the word "rouge state", but had then been now, they would be calling the US a rogue. The world supported Gulf I. But what has earned the US its now permanent standing as a rogue state is Gulf II. Of course Americans dont see it that way, any more than they see Israel as a rogue state.  But the Japanese did not consider themselves rouge, nor did the Germans, nor did the Soviets, nor did the Chinese when they entered Korea.

• And consider this: what if the Syrian facility was actually a rocket and/or chemical warfare facility just as was widely reported before the N-reactor theory emerged.

0230 GMT April 28, 2008

• 24th MEU In Helmand says the International Herald Tribune. 1200 other Marines have arrived as trainers. The MEU will fight alongside UK 16 Air Assault Brigade in this crucial province.

• We heard someone complain the other day that the Marines serve only 7 month rotations in Iraq and Afghanistan. But does their deployment include travel time? If they are moving by sea, you have to add two months to the seven. That is still beside the point, however. The Marines have 8 rifle regiments, of which two are forward at any given time in the Far East and two are in Iraq. They also deploy an MEU in the Mediterranean and often off Iraq as well, plus at least one MEU (reinforced battalion) on contingency. They are to get another regiment which presumably will bring 3rd Division back to strength/

• So the Corps is as stressed as the Army.

• No need for us to again elaborate on our opinion that the US DOD/Pentagon/Government are a bunch of Looney Tuners when it comes to ground force levels. How any rational person can keep 50% of the total force in operational areas overseas year in and year out is beyond comprehension.

• As yet no one has done a study on what this insane policy of fighting wars with too few troops has cost the US. We guarantee when such a study is done, the conclusions will not be pretty.

• Meanwhile, Another New Inanity has come to our notice. This time its the breathless news splashed all over the media that the US Army and Marines have jumped the number of waivers given to recruits who are convicted felons.

• When you read the story, you learn - the horror, the horror - that the Army, which needs 80,000 recruits/year accepted - gasp! - 511 felons in 2007. The uproar is because this is - OMG! - twice as much as the previous year.

• So lets go through this in two steps to show what jackasses so many Americans have become.

• First, America treats law breakers more harshly than any other country. The words "convicted felon" may give people the shivers and make them think of hardened criminals. For example, a waiver had to be granted to a youngster who, six years prior, became a convicted felon at age 13 for throwing a lighted match into his school locker. Yes, folks, what would be considered merely bad behavior in just about any country got this kid felon status. Several Marine recruits with felony records were teenagers guilty of consensual sex with an underage teen. So you are one day past 18, and your girlfriend is one day under 18, you've broken the law and you're on your way to becoming a felon. On this basis, you'd have to throw about half the 18-21 year old kids in the West into jail. Six recruits had convictions for vehicular manslaughter. 130 had drug convictions in a country where getting caught with a few grams of crack cocaine can get you into jail.

• Second, we thought the criminal justice system was about redemption. (How incredibly naive of us.) You're supposed to do your time and get a second chance when you're done. In reality, you barely get a chance and among many complex reasons, this is a reason for high US recidivism. The military has traditionally been about second chances. The 511 accepted into the US Army are getting a second chance. When they are discharged, instead of showing an employer their criminal conviction and getting thrown out of the hiring office, they now have a chance to show they served their country honorably. Why do some Americans see this as wrong?

• By the way, no use to blame the media for this one. Quote from the story: "House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Chairman Henry Waxman, who released the data, noted that there may be valid reasons for granting the waivers and giving individuals a second chance. (Para) But he added, "Concerns have been raised that the significant increase in the recruitment of persons with criminal records is a result of the strain put on the military by the Iraq war and may be undermining military readiness."

• This Congressperson has his own agenda, and he is taking a matter that should be of no concern to make into a mountain in support of his agenda. This "news" got into the media only because he is a big time Congressperson.

• Meanwhile the country is going to heck and beyond in part because Congress has ceased to be effective on any difficult issue. Might the above be an example of why we have become a Know Nothing/Do Nothing nation; or do we say that we have cause and effect reversed?

• As If You Didn't Have Enough To Worry About there is now the news that likely in the next 40-million years one of the inner planets may slam into the the earth and then its kaput for everything except cockroaches. You just know cockroaches are going to survive even if all the inner planets hit earth.

• Of course, it takes relatively small amounts of thrust to alter the orbit of even something as big as a planet. We lack the knowledge to do a calculation, but consider this: In 20,000 years we've come from living in caves to working on spaceflight. So in 40-million years we're bound to come up with some solution, particularly since so far we have advanced exponentially.

• By the way: remember Bikini Atoll? In 1954 the US tested a thermonuclear device that went 250% over planned yield, i.e., 15 Megatons, the largest US test before or since. 54 years later, the waters around the atoll teem with fish and coral. To us this is yet another example of how quickly Gaia heals herself if she is left alone. To regenerate the US within two generations all you'd need to do is put everyone into 10% of the land area (360,000 square miles, and at 850 people per square miles we'd be less crowded than the Netherlands), leave the other 90% strictly alone, and voila, in 50-60 years all the damage we've done would be repaired by itself.

• While we are sure anyone over age 50 knows this, perhaps some of the younger lot don't. The bikini swimsuit was so named because the effect of a lady in a bikini on the easily affected mental balance of the American male was assumed to be akin to that of the 15-MT explosion on the island.

• Once, before the whole world became Americanized, only Americans were American, and only Americans could come up with stuff like the above comparison: brash, funny, laconic, enthusiastic. Different times, simpler times.

• If 1954 had been 2008, we are sure the media would be full of cawing warnings that the exposure of so much skin will lead to cancer instead of the wonderful celebration of life that the bikini inspired.

0230 GMT April 27, 2008

• US Upto $1-Trillion Short In Infrastructure over next 20-years - but that's just for airports, railways, and waste water. The figure is $750- to $1000-billion and comes from the Washington Post's Business section Friday April 25th. Several trillion dollars more are needed for roads, bridges, schools and other infrastructure investments.

• Americans have had a wonderful time spending money from tax cuts on themselves, and even a more wonderful time blaming government for "waste". They also have felt little financial pain from the GWOT because like everything the Baby Boomers do, the costs are shifted into the future so our children will have to pay them.

• The Boomers's parents gave them the best possible of everything. So the Boomers are repaying their debt of gratitude by cheating their own children of their future.

•  But the Piper's bill is coming due. The Editor needs no data to appreciate  infrastructure shortfalls. He can see it all around Takoma Park, Silver Spring, Hyattsville, Riverdale and Bladensburg, five Maryland towns he lives in, works in, shops in, or passes through several times a week for work, and in Washington DC, where he goes to visit friends and family.

• The amount of garbage strewn around residential, commercial and road areas is disgusting. The state highway he takes to and from work is potholed from one end to other. Several schools in Prince George's County that he has visited are so decrepit that just being inside is upsetting; as for DC school buildings, less said the better.

• The police are nowhere to be seen, part of the reason is they are tied up in the drug war and have become the first resort for family/neighborhood. The sole, and honorable except is the City of Takoma Park Police, who are spectacular. But then we residents pay extra taxes compared to other residents of our County, and our town is about a mile-and-a-half square.

• When you are driving, the number of people who run lights, switch lanes dangerously, fail to halt at Stop signs, and absolutely refuse to use their turn signals is nothing short of amazing. In a 15-minute drive for the Editor to see 10 drivers behaving like idiots is an okay sort of day. In 15 years of driving an average of 6-7000 miles/year the Editor has been broadsided thrice by red-light runners - this despite his habit of approaching every traffic light with the same caution one needs to cross Sniper Alley. Try and observe posted speed limits, and you get honked at, yelled at, tailgated, and abused every single time.

•  A yellow light is a warning to stop. That is the law. The only exception made is if you are already in the crossing, or if are just about to begin your crossing. Nonetheless, even the Editor is not so stupid as to brake at a yellow light if traffic is heavy. Forget that the fella behind you expects you to run the yellow and has already accelerated, the two people behind him have already also accelerated. If you stop, you risk a multi-car accident. And if you stop for a pedestrian or give way to a Metrobus, other drivers get violent.

• People can drive like this in Washington because there are no police available for traffic duty. If you get caught by some incredible freak chance, other drivers passing by are unsure whether to feel for you, or show you that you are an idiot for getting caught.

• The Washington area is notorious for its lack of public transport. This is one reason the area has more cars than drivers. The one part of public transport that works is Metrorail, one of the best heavy mass transit systems in the world. It has been highly successful, so what is the consequence? Funding is being reduced so that the system is being set up to fail. The Editor takes Metrorail perhaps six times a year. He is lucky to get parking at his boarding station - if he travels off-peak. And heaven forbid you forget to double your estimated journey time: the system is so congested you thank your luck if you make the journey in the posted time. When the Editor came back to Washington in 1989, he was startled at how clean was Metro. In 2008 every railcar looks it has just transported a large number of hogs to market. The number of people who  nonchalantly ignore the no-eating/drinking rule or the no-litter rule is too large to bother counting.

• Amtrack is another trip. High-speed rail is faster point to point than flying less than ~600-kilometers. Where is high-speed rail in America? Well, between Boston and Washington we have a "high-speed" service. If you're lucky it will hit 160-kmph in spots between Washington and New York, from NYC to Boston, forget it, the track can't take it. And you might even get there on time - that's if there isn't a breakdown somewhere ahead. Having spent 20 years in India, the Editor feels very cozy on Amtrack: just like home without the crowds.

• Washington, of course, absolutely refuses to pay for better rail service in the US. It will fight to the death for that barrel of overseas oil, but it wont do anything to cut demand for that barrel by investing at home.

• American airports and airlines: a simple sentence suffices. The Editor does not travel.

• Washington area water service: the water main replacement rate has fallen to 0.5%/annual. You read that right: the system's replacement cycle is 200 years. The life of the system is 100 years. You don't need a math PhD to see the problem.

• These are some random examples. But more fun is about to happen. Post World War II America has been physically constructed on the assumption land is almost free and petrol is so cheap you dont think about it any more than you think of water costs for watering your lawn. But that era is ending. We've said before: there is oil for many decades, perhaps even for 100 years+. But the cheap oil is going very fast. Americans are fretting  over $4/gallon gas. If they were realistic, they'd be preparing for $6-$8/gallon gas: that is bound to happen before the end of 2020. So people are going to have start to move back into urban areas; indeed, its already happening big time in the Washington Metro area. That means the urban areas will have to be upgraded infrastructure-wise. The chances this will happen in a planned, sensible kind of way? About the same as the Editor's winning the next Miss America.

• America is falling behind by $300-billion/year in maintaining its existing infrastructure. The figure is from an NPR interview of Felix Rohatyn, the famous banker, by Ray Suarez in 2006 Mr. Rohatyn notes that Americans think of infrastructure as spending money, which it isn't. It's an investment: you invest so you continue to make money or even make more money than before. Well, if Mr. Rohatyn is right about Americans - and we think he is - what does this tell us about American levels of education?

• So there is no chance that infrastructure will be expanded at a time when even maintaining existing infrastructure is proving impossible.

• But dont worry, folks, be happy. Let's cut taxes by another 10% across the board, and let's start a few more wars. The decision makers and we aren't going to pay for the consequences. We've already mortgaged our childrens's future. Hey, we've still got our grandchildrens's future to mortgage. 

1200 GMT April 26, 2008

• Syria N-Reactor Oh dear. The head of the IAEA is angry with the US because the latter waited 8 months before producing evidence that the Syrians/Norks were up to no good. He says the basis of the non-proliferation regime is that individual states do not take unilateral action.

• Come, come, Monsieur El Baradei. Which King of the Hill does not follow two sets of rules, one for the King and one for everyone else? When the US needs other countries to join its efforts toward A, B, or C, you will see the US acting multilateral. When the US does not need anyone, it goes unilateral.

• Is this fair? No. Can anything be done about it? Until the US loses its hyperpower status, no. Any country as powerful as the US would do exactly the same, so there is little to be gained by weeping, wailing, and thumping chests.

• In the case of the Syrian reactor, real or imagined, US went neither unilateral or multilateral. Since US is handcuffed to Israel, and Israel for reasons you can consider legitimate or illegitimate depending on where you stand is famous for unilateral action, US has been dragged into the Syrian reactor business.

• The proof is very thin - at least the part that has been revealed. We are told, however, that even to the IAEA the US has refused to definitively say the target was a real Syrian reactor: there are a ton and a half of qualifiers such as "we think", "possible", "likely" and so on.

• But this is neither here nor there. The issue is not if Syria was building a plutonium production reactor. The issue is why go public now? Particularly when the Israelis have not said a word - a bit suspicious, no? The Israelis are not know for modesty. The most logical reason for going public now - as readers must have read a dozen times by now - is to pressure North Korea on its nuclear program.

• Our information is that US "revelations" are not driven by people seeking to sabotage the US-DPRK nuclear accord. This is the US Government itself. If our information is correct, then the only reason for going public on Syria can be to pressure DPRK.

• Zimbabwe: We Were Wrong when we said the Zimbabwe Election Commission would fiddle with the recount on 23 seats to turn Mr. Mugabe's loss into his victory. So far the EC has not reversed a single seat result so far and it appears the Opposition will keep its majority. Of course, if you want to be cynical you can say EC will let the Opposition win, but by a reduced margin that will allow Mr. Mugabe to entice enough Opposition MPs to join him and the entire world will go: "Ooooo, this proves Mr. Mugabe is not engaged in rigging."

• We are cynical, but truthfully, there is no proof at this time to support the assertion.

• Meanwhile, Mr. Mugabe continues his program of widespread arrests, beatings, and other intimidation. This includes raids on a refuse where Opposition supporters already beaten were hiding. They were taken away, presumably for more Treatment.

• A Zimbabwe higher up said something quite silly when asked about the attack on the refuge. If the people inside were beaten up, why weren't they in hospital? Inference: since they were not in hospital they were not beaten up. How about another explanation that fits the same facts? When Opposition members are taken to hospital, they are more easily identifiable to the government's goons. People are avoiding hospitals out of fear.

• The Treatment, by the way, is not being reserved for a few. It is widespread, with media reporting thousands have been jailed, beaten and let go, or arrested; in some cases, even killed.

• To appreciate the effects, consider this. You live in a town of 10,000. Ten Opposition supporters are killed, jailed, badly beaten, or have their houses burned down. There is no one to turn to because the Government is the one repressing. You have no guns, no jobs, no food, no services so you're pretty beaten down to begin with. Will you, as one of the 9,990 that have not been touched continue to support the Opposition?

• The Global Food Crisis Somehow the Brits still manage to produce news that is relevant, factual, and emotion free. Here's a BBC article on the reasons for the global food crisis

• The relevant para: "High oil prices, drought, over-intensive farming leading to lower yields, increased food demand in India and China and the loss of land to biofuels have all played their part in ending the long period of cheap food that the world has enjoyed for the past 30 years."

• Memorize the para, and you will be able to hold your own in discussions about the food crisis.

• Iraq is not just complicated, its also boring. Latest is the Sunni bloc that withdraw 9-months ago from Parliament is back. Details of which ministries the bloc is to get are being worked out. We're wondering if any of the Sadr bloc ministries will be taken away in the coming shuffle.

• US has moved combat units into Basra; no details.

• Syria N-Reactor We have no comment on this. US has a long history of manipulating intelligence for political purposes. Nothing wrong with that, misinformation is a tool of war. But right now the US's credibility on certain issues like WMDs is a bit low, and in anything involving Israel you really have to keep away from what is often a rather stinky mess.

• We do note that David Albright of ISIS, who is a staunch anti-proliferationist and therefore has no reason to play down any nuclear threat, is not convinced the Syrians were anywhere near bringing a reactor on line. US government says he is only half-informed on these intelligence matters. This of course is the standard trick the intel people use: "you can't know, only we know." Okay, if you know why don't you put the information forward?

• "Oh no, we can't do that, our sources will be exposed". Well, we know about Curveball, whose "evidence" the US used to justify Gulf II, and who turned out to be a huckster of the first order. If people like these are the US's sources, and if the Israelis are the sources, please, someone give us a break. And by the way, aren't the "sources" already exposed to the Syrians?

• So, maybe the Syrians did and maybe they didn't. Only their hairdresser knows for sure. Once US produces the hairdresser, we can all judge her credibility.

• Till then, the Editor has on firm grounds that humans actually migrated to earth from Mars. His sources? Sorry, can't compromise them. Their code names are Baby Leo, Gilroy, New Bear and Sylvester, and we can bet the CIA 100% that the CIA will never, ever get them to talk no matter what torture CIA or anyone comes up with. Note to CIA: please don't bet you can, because you'll lose. If you do wanna bet, lets make it a modest sum: say $10-million and a Mars Bar?

• We are not challenging CIA on its information gathering capability, by the way. CIA is pretty good at gathering intel. The trouble starts when the politicos jump in and want the analysis twisted this way or that way.

• While we're on the subject  Why is the US not telling the world the source of the fissile material used in Pakistan's N-tests and the true yields? PS: This is a rhetorical question; just about everyone and his baby sister knows why the US is not talking.

• Humans Went Near Extinct We were down to 2000 before we started multiplying again in the late stone Age. This is among the findings of the Genographic Project and is published in the American Journal Of Human Genetics.

• Scientists Find Basis For Republicans, Democrats Difference The study also says that in Africa humans split into two lines possibly 150,000 years ago, possibly because of a massive drought that made it impossible for East and Southern Africans to mingle. we were developing into two separate species (the Donkeys and the Elephants).  The two lines lived apart for 100,000 years, and then came together perhaps 40,000 years ago.

0230 GMT April 24, 2008

• Sri Lanka Fighting Continues as the Army works to eliminate the LTTE rebels as a military threat. LTTE rebels attacked and attempted to overrun government positions and were driven back. Government says 50 rebels and 38 soldiers were killed, a heavy toll for the government, and that it gained 500-meters. LTTE says over 150 government soldiers were killed while refusing to release its own figures. It says government forces attacked its Forward Defense Line at Muhamalai in the Jaffna Peninsula with tanks and artillery, and was driven back. An unidentified government source says 200 may have been killed on each side.

• BBC says two government divisions advanced 500-meters on an 8-km front after LTTE forces attacked government positions: this account has the virtue it accommodates both the government's story and the rebels' story.

• We are not in touch with the situation, but our opinion is that the government offensives may have pushed the LTTE into a position it cannot afford to give up more ground. The LTTE have always been fierce fighters - the Iraqis could learn a few things about war from them; but this report indicates to us the LTTE is in a make or break situation. Our case is strengthened by government claims that the LTTE has lost half its fighting strength of 12,000 since the government pulled out of the 2002 ceasefire in 2006, saying that the rebels had used the interim to rearm and expand.

• Of course, with a guerilla army there is always the option to move from Phase II, where the LTTE is to Phase I. In Phase I the guerillas control little territory; in Phase II, where the LTTE is now, they have a significant fraction of the country under their control and run a government, in Phase III they move on the cities

• This civil war has been underway for 25 years, so while returning to Phase would imply a big defeat for the rebels, we doubt they would be finished.

• Zimbabwe Opposition Turns Down Power Sharing Various schemes to break the poll deadlock are being proposed in Zimbabwe, but whether the proposers have any official standing is not known. One scheme calls for Mr. Mugabe to head a provisional government while a new poll is organized. We do not see how this can fly because a new poll with Mr. Mugabe as head means only he will more thoroughly fix the election. Someone came up with the idea of power sharing, motivated perhaps by Kenya. But opposition members reject this idea, and government sources say there can be no power sharing giving that the opposition leaders liberal, pro-Western stance conflicts heavily with that of Mr. Mugabe's party, which runs Zimbabwe on the assumption it owns the country.

• In an interesting development, the Election Commission has announced the results for the first 2 of 23 planned recounts, with both the opposition and the government retaining their elections wins. We're a bit surprised: if you're going to fix the polls, best to fix them properly and quickly. The EC is not an independent body, if the opposition gets to retain its seat in the first 2 recounts, the EC has been told to let the result in favor of the opposition stand. We leave it to readers to draw their own conclusions.

• Iraq Army Continues Expansion D.J. Elliot at www.longwarjournal.org says the Iraq Army is about to activate two more divisions for a total of 16.

• We had a good laugh at this because we've noted before the irony that US destroyed Saddam's Army to make its Gulf allies more secure, and now the US is having to rebuild the Iraq Army to levels that exceed Saddam's 2003 force.

• Of course, Saddam had more than 16 divisions in 2003 and 8 were mechanized or armored Republican Guard divisions. But this new force is based on US principles of organization and training, and while we think the US has been doing a pretty pathetic job of training, we for one don't doubt that this new lot is better trained than Saddam's Army. That was composed of a large percentage of draftees, this new one is all-volunteer.

• Iraq has plenty of money to equip the force when it wants to make it armor heavy again, and we hear that it has every intention to field an armor heavy army. Iraqi generals and leaders are not interested in the light wussy grade army the US is building for internal security. Sooner or later the Iraqis are going to stage a breakout re heavy equipment. The US is thoughtfully providing the new army with proper logistics and has started adding artillery regiments to each division. All stuff you need for conventional war.

• At this point you will say: "Wait a minute: you've been saying Basra and Sadr City show the Iraqis can't fight, so how is this new army going to be a threat to its neighbors?"

• Time Out, folks. We've clearly said the Iraqis are not fighting well because it's brother against brother. Even when operating against Sunnis, it's still half-brothers. If required to fight its external adversaries, this army will perform very differently.

• And who are these hostile neighbors? Well, in case the US hasn't noticed, everyone except Iran is hostile to Iraq, and now Iraq's neighbors are even more hostile because earlier Baghdad and Teheran were at each others' throats, now they're Best Friends Forever. It's the old Shia-Sunni thing all over again with the US earning the ever lasting gratitude of the Arabs by defeating a Sunni power and replacing it with a Shia power. Not!

• Let's not generalize: US people in touch with the realties and dealing daily with the realities know the only reason the Sunnis states haven't invaded Iraq is that the US is sitting in Iraq with its big stick.  The Sunni states know sooner or later the US has to reduce its presence significantly, then they'll move.

• Yes, of course the US will jump back into Iraq. But look at the irony of it all: US is now trying to prop up a regime every Sunni Arab regime hates. How long can the US continue to protect Shia Iraq against the Sunni Arabs, particularly when every single Sunni state except Syria is a US ally?

• The complexities of Iraq are enough to give anyone a headache. Best we all eat another chocolate bar instead of worrying about Iraq. we're off to the old 'fridge in which we hoard our chocolate store.

0230 GMT April 23, 2008

Yesterday we were about to complain that the news has becoming terribly boring. Today, however, our instinct says there is a lot about to happen, particularly in Iraq and Zimbabwe. These days, it's hard to trust instinct because the world is awash in information, almost all of it is clutter. Instinct works best when the mind is quiet, that then the subconscious can easily pickup clues from information information. But when one is immersed in very loud, very irrelevant noise, it's hard to keep the mind quiet, particularly for those of us who grew 30, 40, 50 years ago, when there was orders of magnitude less information. It's like there are 10 rock bands on the same stadium stage, blasting forth at 100,000 watts each; we're sitting in the middle of the stage; and somewhere outside the stadium a lone violinist is playing the Mediation from Thais; and our job is to critique her performance.

• Iraq US and British Special Forces are operating inside Basra to capture senior Mahadi Army leaders, says Times London. This is the equivalent of the old night raiding patrol, where you send your men to infiltrate enemy defenses with one purpose: bring back live prisoners for interrogation.

• You don't do this unless you need information prior to an attack, and it seems this is what is impending in Basra.

• In Sadr City, nothing is impending because the US is engaged in all-out salami tactics. The US has even stopped giving daily enemy kills with a few exceptions. It has become "an unknown number of militants/suspects were killed." US is clearly positioning itself for a showdown with al-Sadr in both areas of his greatest influence, Basra and Sadr.

• Incidentally, BBC says 550 US troops embedded with Iraqi forces in Basra had to basically lead their Iraqi troops - this is not the way the Times phrases it, but the inference is justified. We don't think anyone is pretending anymore that the Iraqi offensive succeeded.

• Zimbabwe A few things are clear among many things that are not clear.

• (a) Mr. Mugabe has unleashed all-out repression against citizens in pro-Opposition areas and against Opposition leaders. Looking at events from Mr. Mugabe's spot as King of the Hill, it is likely the Zimbabwe Election Commission will, at the end of the "recount" of 23 constituencies declare Mr. Mugabe's party the winner of a parliamentary majority. At this point, Mr. Mugabe could do two things. He could then stage the presidential runoff and "win", or - we speculate - get Parliament to pass new laws that render the need for a runoff irrelevant.

• (b) Africans and the West are horrified at what Mr. Mugabe is doing. In South Africa, his greatest supporter, Mr. Mbeki, has been bypassed by his own party and his own government. Zambia is reported to be completely fed up with Mr. Mugabe. This is important because if action against the dictator is decided on, Zambia rather than South Africa may provide the leader and staging facilities. We cannot as yet speculate on if military action is being considered, but our instinct says that the usual tool in these situations, an embargo will not be a chosen option. The reason is that an embargo will only add to the already very considerable sufferings of the people and will not affect the Mugabe elite who in any case have seized control of what little resources the country has left. Instinct tells us that someone or some combination of someones is pushing the idea of decapitation, but this option, in our mind the only feasible one, is not something that is close to approval at this time.

• (c) Zimbabwe's churches have asked the world for intervention on the grounds that post-election violence may grow and lead to genocide. The use of the term genocide, particularly in an African context, where so many genocides have taken place, is akin to throwing a lighted match into the gas tank. If the world's churches decide to back their Zimbabwe brothers, which we think is likely, the impetus for intervention will grow rapidly. Western churches don't deploy any divisions, but they have enormous political clout, particularly when so many in the west believe their countries have blood on their hands for failing to stop the Rwanda, Congo, and Sudan genocides. This guilt factor will play large also with political parties of all persuasions. The UN also labors under tremendous guilt at this time on the genocide issue.

• A last note: China hints it may recall the arms shipment sent to Zimbabwe which the US is working to block. Of course, the Chinese are particularly sensitive of their image right now because of Tibet, but we do not think the Chinese stepping away from Mr. Mugabe, who has been a loyal and trusted ally, augers well for the dictator.

1200 GMT April 22, 2008

• Fighting In Mogadishu Somalia has been off our radar, but the situation continues to be unstable. 81 people were killed in fighting between Ethiopian troops and Islamic rebels over the last three days. We have little news of events in the interior; here too rebels continue advancing against various towns and then retreating as government and Ethiopian forces counterattack.

• Iraq-Serbia Arms Deal Bypassing US anti-corruption controls and even several Iraqi senior commanders Iraq ordered $833-million worth of arms from Serbia. The US belief is that kickbacks were to be paid to the Iraqi Prime Minister and friends. The PM has consistently prevented corruption inquiries against himself, friends, and relations. After US protest, the deal was reduced to $233-million, and even that apparently includes shoddy equipment.

• In our opinion, it's no use beating up on Mr. Malaki for his corruption. The entire government at every level is corrupt, and will continue to be no matter who leads the government. That is the way things are done and certainly the US is not going to change anything.

• US Working To Stop Chinese Arms From Reaching Zimbabwe When South African dockworkers and the courts blocked unloading of a Chinese freighter carrying arms for Zimbabwe, the ship sailed for Angola. Now the US is pressuring the governments of Namibia, Angola, and Mozambique not to allow the ship to unload.

• We congratulate the US on taking this action. Frankly, we did not expect anything so bold from Washington, which has been strangely reluctant to take real action against Mr. Mugabe. Americans and British alike say their low profile is intended to help Africans resolve the issue of Mr. Mugabe by themselves and to avoid the appearance of white powers acting against a black ruler. There is considerable truth to this, but also Zimbabwe has hardly been a US priority.

• Would be nice to remind those who call Britain and US "white" that while this was true once, both are multiracial societies and in the US, at least, it seems inevitable that in the next 40-years whites will become a minority.

0230 GMT April 21, 2008

The Al-Sadr Crisis

• We Can Now Refine Our Previous Hasty Snapshot of what's happening. a source checked in and the rest we figured out ourselves based on open sources.

• First Al-Malaki has launched a purely politically-motivated attack on Al-Sadr. The latter's protestations that al-Malaki wants only to weaken him so he can be destroyed when the provincial elections are held later this year are 100%.

• Second Al-Malaki has no interest in bringing law and order to Iraq because if this was done, Al-Malaki, his family, and other supporters will be the first to get arrested for their corruption and their sectarian warfare against Shias and Sunnis.

• Third Completely to our surprise, al-Sadr really did see the light the way the Americans wanted him. He realized that he had better prospects of leading Iraq by working within the political process than by being Thug Number 1. We thought he's been dissimulating; we are told this is not at all the case. Of course he's frightened of the Americans, but not so frightened that he would ceasefire to save his hide if he weren't getting a very big political advantage out of ceasing fire.

• Tie this up with point the First: al-Malaki sees al-Sadr as the primary threat to al-Malaki's rule. The Prime Minister has so completely fouled up matters that he, at least, believes al-Sadr is the threat that must be neutralized. We don't quite see how al-Malaki, incompetent, corrupt person that he is,  has come to this conclusion, but this analysis is about him, not us.

• Fourth The Americans are caught in a bind. They very much want al-Sadr to continue with his ceasefire. They don't like al-Malaki any more and they understand he is an obstacle to much of what the Americans want, including acceptance by the government of the Sunnis militias and a stable Iraq. But they want even less to see al-Sadr come to power. If a fanatical religious leaders comes to head Iraq, it's all over for American policy. The policy is accepted widely as having failed, but a black turban Shia as head of Iraq really, truly puts America so far down the latrine that they'll be doing teas with the Ozzie Kangas.

• Further, most of the Green Zone fire is coming from al-Sadr areas. The Americans at this stage are so fed up that they dont care if it upsets al-Sadr for them to go after the people doing the attacks, they dont care if its the Old Boy Black Turban himself or renegades, all they know is that (a) the attacks are making Americans an object of global mockery and (b) the Iranians are behind the attacks. Its fine for Iraqis to kill each other, even fine for them to kill Americans elsewhere, but hit the Green Zone and then we're really mad. They hope al-Sadr understands this and does not get involved in American efforts to stop the fire, but if he doesn't see this, too bad.

• We should explain we, at least, think al-Sadr is part-and-parcel of the attacks. Even if he isn't, his men regular throw themselves at the Americans when the latter attack Sadr City. From al-Sadr's perspective we can see why he does that, but it isn't really acceptable to the Americans, and even a non-American should be able to see why.

• Five the Iranians have got everyone in a tizzy and are laughing their heads off. On the one hand they indicate al-Malaki has every right to move against renegade militias in Basra. On the other hand they do not accept his/US actions in Sadr City. So are they pro-Sadr or pro-Malaki? In our not-so-humble opinion, anyone who ponders this is wasting time. Sadr, Malaki, SICRI are all Iranian tools to lesser or greater extent and those who sit around saying "no, no, X is really independent of Teheran and Y is not" are just fooling themselves. If the Americans pro-Iran Iraqis from turning against Iran, they need to get rid of anyone who is a Shia and bring the Sunnis back. At which point the whole world and 90% of the US is going to go: "Lord, take me now, I cant stand it no more," because if you want someone one who hates Iran, Saddam was the man.

• Six al-Sadr has been backing off and backing off because he really wants the political process. Where has that gotten him? The British and American have helped al-Malaki get Basra back - the last two localities under sole Mahadi Army control have fallen to British artillery, though anyone who thinks this is the end of Mahadi army in Basra needs to check himself into a mental hospital.

• In Sadr City, al-Sadr has been losing ground meter-by-meter, though he is very much in charge and his men in the government "controlled" areas have simply hidden their weapons.

• Be all that as it may, his restraint has been taken as weakness by al-Malaki - and some Americans - and the man has started to believe he is invincible.

• In other words, al-Sadr has gotten zero from showing restraint; indeed, he is in minus territory right now.

• Seven that's what's behind his Final Final ultimatum to al-Malaki. Al-Malaki thinks he's winning and is not going to back down. If al-Sadr backs down again, he's finished. Might as well apply for an exit visa and run the Papa John's at the junction of Riggs Road and East-West Road in Hyattsville, just outside the District of Columbia. We've checked this out for al-Sadr though he didn't ask us to: the owner needs to reduce his price by 50% before al-Sadr will get a a decent deal.

• Nonetheless, we suspect there will be a Final Final Final ultimatum before the poop levitates upwards into the fan. Al-Sadr will find some excuse - so and so told me - to break off his counter-offensive after a day or two. The day his onw trusted aide comes to him and says: "Reverend one, you are a disgrace to the Mahadi Army, and here's your just reward..." and pulls a gun on al-Sadr, al-sadr knows he's dead either way and may as well go down fighting.

• What happens then? We surely do not know and we surely don't care either. Let the Super-IQ jackass retards who run America's national security policy figure it out. We dont get paid a cent, no one listens to us, so why should we care.

• Right know the Editor is embarked on a project of more serious import, as he has been for the last 50 years: answering Freud's question: "What does a Woman want? Dear God, what does a Woman want?"

• The other day your Editor went with Mrs. R to see Jean Luc Goddard's 1963 Contempt - yes, we're getting divorced but the Editor doesn't know any other women, and the Editor was quite blown away by the Bridgette Bardot character who wants one thing one second and then another the next, and each time her hapless idiot of a husband says "But why? Give me a reason why?" she just says, basically "no reason, I just feel like it". This movie is the first the Editor has seen in a gazzillion years where he could really say: "Hey! That's me". In case you ask, obviously he's the hapless husband, not Ms. Bardot. Every time the Editor saw Ms. Bardot sans garments his reaction was to say "heaven's sakes, girl, cover up before you catch your death of a cold!"

• Time to face the obvious: when you get to that stage re. Ms. Bardot, life is over. Might as well look for the nearest ice floe.