0230 GMT March 14, 2006

0230 GMT October 31, 2006

Pakistan Army Said To Kill 80 Militants In Helicopter Strike on a madrassa (religious school) in the North West Frontier Province. Some locals confirm there were Al-Qaeda people in the madrassa; other locals say no militants were present and only students were killed.
Some locals say a US air strike was responsible for the deaths; based on the toll we feel they may have a case.
Times London says that the peace deal President Musharraf signed with the tribals of one of the seven tribal agencies in the province has failed to stop Taliban/AQ action against Afghanistan - no surprise to anyone and indeed the activities have increased, angering NATO. So, though President Musharraf was negotiating another peace deal with the tribal agency in whose territory the madrassa was located, he was compelled by NATO to attack the madrassa or, as we suspect, to accept responsibility for a NATO strike.
President Musharraf has been seeking peace with the NWFP tribals because he doesn't see any advantage in fighting them, and felt he could defy the US, which has been pressing him to control his side of the border.
We have said more than once that the Taliban - but not AQ - is an instrument of Pakistani policy in the region and for Pakistan to suppress the Taliban is to go against its own strategic interest. Pakistan has taken a tremendous beating from the west on the issue of Taliban/AQ. Pakistan has been cooperative in the war against AQ - no friends of Pakistan, these lads. But it has done very little against the Taliban.
Chad Army Chief Killed By Rebels Chad rebels are again advancing on the capital and sources tell BBC very heavy fighting is taking place along the eastern border with Sudan. The Chad army chief was wounded by rebels and subsequently died.
Israeli Lebanon Fiasco Generals Promoted, Retained Instead of demotions, Jerusalem Post says 4 Israeli Lebanon War division commanders have been promoted. These are the GOCs of the Galilee, 162 Armored, Reserve Armored, and Reserve Paratroop Divisions. The first two are promoted. the other two are to retain their commands.
Congratulations, guys. Now you know how to get your next promotions: lose Israel's next war and you'll become Field Marshals, at the very least.
This reminds us of India's 1962 defeat against the Chinese. Not one single senior officer lost his job. The inquiry - which was conducted with reasonable impartiality - was immediately suppressed. Later, the officer who led the enquiry, on retirement sold his copy of the report to a British journalist and pushed off to a Commonwealth country. C'est la vie and all that.
But the lessons of 1962 were learned: just 3 years later the Indian Army, in the middle of a 250% expansion, put in a solid performance in the 1965 War, and in 1971, with the expansion complete, won the first strategically decisive war against a Muslim army in a thousand years.
Let us see if the Israeli Army has learned its lessons.

0230 GMT October 30, 2006

Mainstream Media Has Stopped Attacking US Military we welcome this development, even while we wonder what brought about the change. It may be that the media decided its attacks were causing the public to lose further respect for the media. It may be that reporters with US forces have now spent enough time in Iraq that they can see how sincerely and honestly the military does its job, and have learned how difficult it is to fight battles. It may be the military is itself fed up of painting rosy pictures to hide the grim realities, and has taken the media into confidence, dispassionately detailing the good, bad, and ugly.
As small example of the changed attitude, Washington Post carries a story about the US Army's impact in small towns outside of Baghdad that are as yet untouched by sectarian violence. It speaks of the ceaseless efforts to provide security and to rebuild, and how much the locals appreciate their relatively peaceful lives made better every day with small steps initiated by the US Army. This kind of positive article was unthinkable just a few months ago.
The Matter Of Civilian Deaths In Afghanistan Another uproar as somewhere between 10-20 civilians were killed last week in NATO air attacks. The Taliban has taken to using the civilian population as human shields; add to this the inevitable mistakes that occur when you rely primarily on airpower, and you have a problem.
In Indian Kashmir some weeks ago, the security forces battled two terrorists who barricaded themselves in a house in Srinager. The security forces lost seven killed in exchange for the death of the two terrorists.
At no time were heavy weapons used: no mortars, artillery, attack helicopters, or tactical air. As always, there was absolutely no question of using such weapons in a civilian area. The Indian Army employs heavy firepower in the rarest of rare cases, when insurgents are engaged in areas far from population, and even then sparingly. Yes, civilians do die in the close-quarter combat that characterizes Indian security force firefights with the insurgents: imagine fighting terrorists in Times Square during rush hour and you get the picture. But the security forces do their best to avoid causing such civilian deaths.
Now, truthfully, the Indians are fighting among their own population. They are not in a distant land where the thought is better ten innocent civilians die than one soldier be exposed to unnecessary risk. We are not making judgments: NATO forces are in a very difficult situation and their domestic publics are so casualty averse that if at all NATO is to achieve military success, casualties have to be minimized at all costs. That means more civilian deaths.
Still, it may not be a bad idea to rethink the use of airpower when there is any chance of civilian deaths, such as when insurgents plonk themselves in the middle of a village.
70 Taliban Killed In Tarin Kot Battle 150 Taliban attacked a NATO base near Tarin Kot, Uruzgan Province, and almost half were killed in the subsequent battle. Airpower was used most effectively - and in our view this was a correct use of this instrument. There are unlikely to be civilians around when the Taliban stage an attack against a fixed NATO base.

0230 GMT October 29, 2006

Due to a family emergency which has taken the editor out of town 3 successive weekends in a row, publication of History magazine is disrupted.

Should This Be News? Someone took a shot at the convoy of the Iraq Prime Minister; he was not with the convoy - one assumes it was a decoy. We are not clear why CNN considers this to be news. Its reasonable to assume not a day goes by without someone trying to knock off the Iraqi PM.
And Should This Be News? After the row between Mr. Bush and the Iraq PM the other day where the PM said he did not recognize any US imposed agenda, the US rushed to repair the damage. A meeting between the US ambassador and the PM was arranged, and the press release spoke of peace and love, togetherness in life and death, unity of the soul and spirit, and more nauseating garbage.
But there was no mention of agreement on disarming militias, to wit, Mr. al-Sadr and his Mahadi Army. Why is this news? The Iraq PM rules only through a dispensation by al-Sadr.
Klasse Klowne Award I goes to the US official who insists there is no daylight between the US and Iraqi positions. Obviously there is no daylight, you high-grade dummy, because its night in Iraq and the power has failed again. The US and Iraq are sitting in a pitch-dark room on opposite sides.
Klasse Klowne Award II goes to the Mightiest Brain In the US: no, this not Mr. Rumsfeld, it is our beloved Vice President. After saying that dunking in water was a no-brainer as an interrogation technique for terrorists, he quickly backtracked because there was the expected uproar. He was not advocating water-boarding, he said.
So was he perhaps speaking of a new interrogation technique where the CIA baptizes Islamic terrorists as Catholics, sending them into a frenzy of revelations about their dastardly deeds?
The VP needs to grow up. He should have kept his fat lips zipped when asked that question. OK, so he's human, we all make mistakes when speaking - your editor more than most. But for a clever man this was a stupid statement, since he has been the primary administration advocate for sanctioning torture.
PS: Water boarding works. It is a very effective, very quick technique. But it is plain, simple, unequivocal torture. Similarly, sleep deprivation and stress positions are torture, plain and simple. If you have the time, sleep deprivation is one of the best ways to break a suspect without laying a hand on him. And for the Giant Minds in the US administration who say stress positions are not torture: how about we make a deal? I'll come over and use stress positions on you, and I guarantee you that you will be singing like a canary in between passing out.
What is really, really annoying about the administration's position on torture is its breathless arrogance: we don't torture, says Mr. Bush, and the US spares no effort to lash out at other countries for "human rights" abuses. The horrible truth is that torture works, and most Americans would have no compunction about the use of torture depending on how dire the circumstances. But the US needs to stop talking, talking, talking about the subject. A simple: "We do not sanction torture" suffices, and everyone goes home.
By the way, the people who say torture does not work either do not know how to do the job effectively, or don't understand there is a big difference between a suspect in custody who has to be produced in court and given a full trial and a terrorist in custody where you can detain him for as long as you want.
A man being tortured may well say what you want him to say, and if he is then released to judicial custody you have not helped your objective. But if he remains in your custody, he may lie once, but when you come around the second time and tell him torture will continue till he is proved to have spoken the truth, he will get the idea.
None of this deals with the larger issue of what torture does psychologically to the torturer and to the system that sanctions torture. In wartime, however, there are bigger issues to worry about.

0230 GMT October 28, 2006

We missed yesterday's update due to a family emergency which has also taken the editor out of town 3 successive weekends in a row, disrupting publication of History magazine.

Iraq PM Repudiates President Bush's Grand Iraq Plan It was from a Britisher we learned the correct response to the ubiquitous, jarring, and highly silly greeting "Have a nice day!". You're supposed to say "Thank you, but I have other plans".
Well, the Iraqi PM has other plans. After President Bush made a big hoo and ha about benchmarks and milestones and what not, the PM minced no words in saying he didn't recognize anyone's benchmarks and milestones or whatever. Then next he attacked the US for going after al-Sadr's militia, which is the main cause of sectarian violence in Baghdad and points south.
So the "sophisticated" analysts - you know, the ones who can't tell their elbows from their behinds - are saying well, Iraqi PM is saying this because of his political constraints so we can safely ignore what the man says.
We don't think its politics. We think the Iraqi government's dominant element, which is Shia, works hand in glove with al-Sadr and various assorted groups of thugs, that it has no interest in protecting the Sunnis - quite understandably - and that everyone is busy making money and doesn't give a duck's pin feather about the country known as Iraq.
That is the problem in Iraq, and no amount of benchmarks is going to change the situation.
Analysts are descending into states of unreality when they say things like "we abandoned Afghanistan after the Soviets withdrew and look what happened, and so we shouldn't abandon Iraq". So what was the US supposed to do, go in and build a new Afghanistan? Anyone bother asking the Afghans if they wanted the US to do that? Obviously not. And could the US have made a difference? We happen to think not. The limits on US's ability to remake countries are extreme, and we can't understand why people don't see this.
Yes the US remade Japan and Germany. Is anyone arguing Afghanistan 1989 and Iraq 2003-06 are similar cases? We hope not.
Bill Roggio In Iraq says al-Sadr militia has spread to 9 of Iraq's 18 provinces and is clashing with US forces on a daily basis.
Months ago we warned - based on "our sources" - that al-Sadr was the greatest threat Iraq faces, and if he is not killed, he will plunge the country into a darkness of mayhem and violence. He will then position himself as Iraq's savior with the aim of becoming supreme in the country. He already is seen as the savior by a significant fraction of Shias. From his point of view, things couldn't be better: he doesn't run the government, but its fair to say already no government decision can be taken if he disagrees.
Grand Vizar Rumsfeld Has Spoken: "Back Off" he tells Iraq critics and stop demanding deadlines. We have to appreciate Iraq is a complicated situation.
Gentle reminder to Rummy: we, the taxpayers, pay your salary, and a lot of us are unhappy about your role in the Iraq fiasco. Sensibly, you've been keeping quiet. Why don't you back off and revert to Rummy the Silent mode? Clearly Iraq is too complicated a situation for you.
France Says 6,000 UNIFIL Troops Suffice and indeed wants to reduce its troop levels. 16,000 are authorized, but France says the present number if fine. Paris is reportedly concerned about attacks on its troops; we think this is a sensible apprehension given that Hezbollah is asserting itself openly - something it avoided before the war.
Meanwhile, Russia confirms its contingent will not serve until UNIFIL command but will draw its authorization from the Lebanon government. And Jerusalem Post says for the 4th time Indonesia has refused its earlier commitment of 1000 troops - also sensible, as the Israelis might target Islamic contingents in the same way Hezbollah might target the Europeans.
Letter from Robert Merkamp

"One reason so few Americans vote, we are told, is they have lost faith in their political system. If this is so, this may be the most toxic legacy of the Boomer generation."

Now I'm not a boomer, I'm a gen-x'er. And often, most of this boomer stuff is boring to me. I don't really care about boomers whining about this or people whining about boomers for that matter.

Each generation has it's good points and bad points and none of us are in a position to judge the other, particularly when I'm sure many "boomers" are not the stereotypical "boomers" that some get into their minds. Anyhow though, is it fair to assert that the loss of faith that voting implies really the fault of the boomers? Let's analyze a few things:
1. The loss of face came as a result of the revelations of numerous scandals. Some of these scandals were major, such as Watergate and involved criminal behavior. Others of them were more private or embarrassing such as President Clinton's sexual escapades. One interesting thing to remember is that many scandals, particularly those of the latter category were often swept under the rug by a compliant media. Reporters knew Eisenhower had a mistress, they knew Kennedy got around town with various ladies, they knew lots about all sorts of politicians. And yet they kept quiet. And while journalists often said they did it "for the good of the country" I'll be cynical for a moment and say they did it A) to preserve access to the powerful that discretion bought them and B) they were living in a culture that was more accepting of male adultery than it is today. Still, one wonders if such scandals started appearing in the press in the 1940s and 1950s how Americans would've reacted and how it would've affected voting trends. More than Boomers might've been turned off but this tide in journalism began to change as many boomers were becoming aware of the world around them.
2. Not to mention the US was fighting an increasingly unpopular war that was poorly thought out by the political administration who showed itself to be relatively deaf to the concerns of the electorate, who were often being uninformed of the situation or sometimes misled about our goals there (sound familiar?). Of course this is Vietnam I'm referring to. I couldn't resist the parallel but honestly it is a bit of a turn-off on politicians and the system when something that solid majorities oppose is ignored and we are told to "stay the course." The conclusion is no one is listening and that does cause some to give up, boomer or not. This list could go on of course. We could talk about the concentration of power in two political parties that often appear to be different sides of the same dirty coin. We could talk about the corrosive trends of money that lead politicians to vote for their sponsor's interests over their voter's. We could talk about so many factors that have helped to sour people on government but I don't need to write a thesis.
(As an aside, if as some would say the "boomer" generation is a bunch of whining, self-absorbed, narcissistic individuals than it always amuses me how no one blames their parents. After all, if we conclude the genetically boomers are the same as other human groups then it's possible that some of these traits, if real, were the result of how society saw to raise and educate them. While blaming the parents is not a satisfactory answer or a justification for how they behave as an adult it is clear from modern psychology that the imprints provided by parenting go hand in hand with development of personality as well as providing templates for how they develop. I suppose in part we don't like to blame "the greatest generation" even though a dispassionate look at them is likely to reveal as much fault as virtue as well as I understand that a successful stereotype needs to employ clear black and white "good/bad" imagery that ignores the complexity of life in order to succeed.)
Now I'm a gen-X'er who votes every election, no matter how mundane. But I can see where the previous generation as well as the current ones have evolved a sense of apathy about the process. It's one natural reaction to the concept that our elected officials aren't really interested in serving the people who presumably put them there. In that sense I cannot believe that boomers are somehow different from any other human group or generation that might be exposed to the same parameters.
Boomers are not genetically different than any one else and apathy has not historically been confined to them in particular. Now in some cultures such circumstances might fuel anger and perhaps revolution down the line but relatively speaking most Americans seem wealthy enough (true many Americans are poor but even many poor Americans are better off than say an African in a refugee camp), well-fed enough, and so plugged in and pre-occupied with the consumerist machine that such a thing occurring here seems to me unlikely; at least until one day when the page of history turns and we slip from our place of pre-eminence.
Then, as the Romans learned, all bets are off and it's every man for himself. Will the apathy of the electorate (a mirror of the disinterest of the elected) hasten that process? Time will tell.

0230 GMT October 26, 2006

News situation becoming mindlessly positively really dismal.

Israel Denies IDF Fired On German Frigate's Helicopter The frigate is part of the anti-arms-infiltration patrol off Lebanon. Israel says the helicopter did not file a flight plan as required and the Is.AF scrambled fighters to intercept. But it was all sorted out, says Tel Aviv.
Not so, says www.Debka.com. Six Israeli F-16s flew over the German frigate F128 which is command ship for the naval forces off Lebanon. They released decoys as protection against rocket attack. The Germans went to battle stations and say the aircraft fired two missiles at the ship - no mention of helicopters in Debka's account. Berlin is quite wroth says Debka.
To overfly a German warship and release decoys to protect against hypothetical counterfire is - we cannot put this any more diplomatically - an act of inane lunacy. Would the Is.AF try this maneuver against a US warship? Obviously no. So why did it provoke a German warship? Massive ego may be one reason - no German is going to tell us what to do or fly helicopters where we say they cannot fly helicopters.
Or was this a crude attempt at intimidation? Very dumb if so.
Nonetheless, we are again forced to agree with Debka's editorial comment even though we think Debka is quite flaky: the Israelis let themselves in for this kind of trouble when they agreed to UN Resolution 1701.
Ethiopia Says It Is At War With The ICU but states the proposition in a round-about war, saying in effect, well, ICU has declared war on us by calling a jihad.
Meanwhile, Ethiopia says Eritrea has moved several thousand troops into the DMZ between the two countries. May we take the liberty of giving Eritrea a bit of advice? You all are going to lose a great deal of the sympathy you enjoy in the west by siding with the ICU and then making trouble for Ethiopia, which is working to contain the East African Taliban. The west will punish you, and this sort of grief you don't need.

Editorial Comment

We Are Not Going To Dignify President Bush's Comments on Iraq policy by repeating or analyzing them. But we have to ask how long can we go on saying "but President Bush's advisors are letting him down, they are responsible for the stupid things he says" before a reader asks "if the President is so mindless he repeats whatever absolute rubbish his advisors want him to say, is he fit to be President?"
We have been very angry for a long time over administration policy, which has put the military in an impossible situation, and which continues to look to the military to save the administration's face - without providing the military with anything like the resources it needs. The manner in which the President is now publicly acknowledging his mistakes is farcical, the double-talk is insulting to the military which has so patiently and so loyally fought an unwinable war. At this time we need the President to show leadership, not talk the mealy-mouthed talk of an opportunistic politician trying to save himself.
The President has already torpedoed the Republican party, fore, aft, starboard and port by his failed leadership on Iraq, the GWOT, the deficit, immigration reform - just about anything that can be named. The American people, including a large number of Republicans, are completely fed up with the administration. Mr. Bush let himself become hostage to his uni-agenda advisors from 9/11 on, and the country is paying the price.
Please notice, however, we are not predicting any massive Democratic landslide week after next. Republicans we talk to are resigned to losing the House and the Senate, the only question being by how many seats. Nonetheless, when it comes to double-talk, lack of vision, opportunism, and corruption, the Democrats are right out in front with the worst Republicans. The American people know their choice is between a bunch of filthy rotten Democrats and a bunch of filthy stinking Republicans, and how they will vote is not all that clear to us.
One reason so few Americans vote, we are told, is they have lost faith in their political system. If this is so, this may be the most toxic legacy of the Boomer generation.
Fair disclosure: according to his accepted birthdate your editor is among the first of the Boomers. Life can be so unfair sometimes. [Accepted birthdate because no documentary evidence seems to be available.]

0230 GMT October 25, 2006

News situation becoming mindlessly positively really dismal.

Can US Sink Lower Than This In Iraq? "This" is the statement by the US ambassador to Iraq, that victory is still possible. Please be clear we are not attacking the ambassador, who we consider one of the best American diplomats. We are attacking his statement.
Victory is still possible? Is that is why we are still in Iraq, for a possible victory?
Folks, its possible that all the oxygen molecules in the editor's study will suddenly congregate to one side of the room and he will die for lack of oxygen, but it isn't particularly likely. Right now, frankly, the editor has a better chance of getting a date than the US has of winning in Iraq. Of course, the math people tell us you cannot have negative probability, so the two odds have to be equal at zero. But what do the math people know, we ask? Nothing.
Back at the ranch, it turns out Iraqi MOD officials stole $800-million of the $1.2 billion allotted for equipment purchases for the Iraq military. The officials have fled the country. Note to our American friends: your tax dollars at work. What's not to love about the Iraqis.
Vague joke going around town: President Bush is right, there are no similarities between Vietnam and Iraq. In Vietnam only half the population really hated us.
Somalia ICU forces attacked a town south of Baidoa where Ethiopian trainers are working on building up government forces. The ICU claims it inflicted heavy losses on the defenders and captured an Ethiopian officer.
A news dispatch from an Italian agency says ICU forces are advancing on Baidoa.
Classical military theory - which is based on millennia of experience on what works, that's why its classical - emphasizes the need to maintain momentum at all costs. ICU probably had its reasons for halting its advances in Southern Somalia after taking everything else but Baidoa and a few other towns, but it was a big mistake not to go for the kill. The delay has enabled the Ethiopians to come in, and it is just a matter of time before they're ready to start a counter-offensive.

0230 GMT October 24, 2006

News situation becoming mindlessly positively really dismal.

Bye Bye Baby: We're Glad To See You Go No more staying the course in Iraq, folks. President Bush will not use the phrase again, and good thing too, because it makes him and the US look like idiots.
The new catch-phrase is "benchmarks": Iraq government will have to show US it is making progress according to a preset agenda, and US troops will withdraw accordingly.
Another massive waste of time according to us. Iraq government can't rule Baghdad, what to say about Iraq. There will be progress only in one direction, i.e., the race to the bottom.
Orbat.com advice to US Government: Say after us: "We need to get out now". Repeat as many times as needed to begin withdrawal.
Somalia Ethiopian and Somali forces withdrew Sunday from the town they had seized from the ICU 60 km south of Baidoa. Why? We have no clue. Some say ICU has moved back in, others say it is 12 km away.
Meanwhile, ICU says it is preparing for the final assault, on Baidoa.
India Proposes Posting Military Officers At US Pacific & Central Commands says Times of India.
Okay, folks, when the Indian establishment was in bed with the USSR, your editor worked, within his limits, for an end to the automatic anti-Americanism then rampant. But the editor didn't envisage a day when the Indians would not just be in bed with the Americans, but trying to undress the Americans.
India's military cooperation with America is already frighteningly close and exceeds, by orders of magnitude, the closest cooperation the Soviets ever managed. The CIA and FBI now work openly in India, Indian/American forces exercise regularly, and several frameworks exist for Indian/American force cooperation to meet multilateral threats and threats to India.
So now India wants to take this relationship to the next level. if India is to have officers posted at key US commands, the logical corollary is US officers at top Indian commands. This is not just sleeping together, this is getting married.
So what next? India joins NATO?
The Reason Balad In Iraq Is Now Peaceful Balad was a Sunni-Shia town north of Baghdad. Then Shias killed 2-3 Sunnis, and the Sunnis killed 17 Shias. Then the Shias called in terrorist al-Sadr's militia and mayhem erupted.
Then the Iraqi and US Army moved in, and there was quiet.
That's the official story.
The real story? Washington Post says al-Sadr militia rules the town, the Iraqi forces focus on keeping their heads down and - most important - there are six Sunni families left - the rest have fled. So there is no one left to kill, basically, so things are quiet.
Well, that's one way to restore the peace.
Meanwhile, Back In Amara the Iraqi government has declared a curfew and issued a stern warning to al-Sadr militia to behave. Last week the militia took over the town after a local dispute with police, and after 24-25 were killed in fighting al-Sadr told the militia to calm down. Iraq sent 3000 troops who are inside the town and the British have a 500-troop unit on standby.
Well, al-Sadr militia killed 2 police officers yesterday and media sources say tension is rising.
Minor prediction: trouble will flare again, British troops will this time occupy Amarah for a few days, then they'll leave, and trouble will flare again. Each time al-Sadr militia will gain a bit more ground and a bit more power till one day we'll read in the NYT or WashPo or wall Street Journal that nary an Iraq government soldier is to be seen in Amarah, its under control of al-Sadr. Then at some point Badr militia will start moving in, and we'll have serious fighting between Badr and al-Sadr militias.

0230 GMT October 23, 2006

News situation becoming mindlessly positively really dismal.

Somalia Government Reinforces Bur Haqaba as ICU Prepared Counterattack 500 militiamen allied to the Somalia government arrived in the town of Bur Haqaba, which was retaken Saturday from the ICU with support from Ethiopian troops. Meanwhile, ICU says it is preparing thousands to join the holy war against Ethiopian and Somali forces.
It is highly offensive for the ICU to even use the term "holy war". There is nothing holy about it. The ICU has been engaged in a ruthless power grab in Somalia, just as much as the warlords who have torn the country apart over the last 15-18 years. The only side with any moral standing is the interim Somalia government, and it is the weakest player on the field. The rest of the lot are simply thieves and murderers, and the ICU are simply power-mad religious fascists.
Lets Talk About France's Civil War for a change, instead of Iraq's. Times London says a year after the nationwide riots by Islamic residents, an average of 112 cars a day are burned in France, there are 15 attacks a day on the police and emergency services, and 3000 police have been injured in clashes, approximately 8 a day. The term civil war comes from a police union official.
France has a population one-sixth that of the US. In the US context, the figures translate to 650 cars burned a day, 90 attacks on police and emergency services, and 18,000 police injured in clashes, or almost 50 a day.
Don't know what the French call it, but we call it anarchy.
UN Envoy To Sudan Expelled; UK Wrong To Issue Condemnation The envoy has been keeping a blog in which he says what he feels like about Sudan's war against Darfur and the Sudanese have told him to get out.
But its only his personal journal, protests the UN. Its plain wrong, says UK.
Have people lost their minds? Since when is it okay for an accredited diplomat to a country to keep a personal blog in which he attacks the government to which he is accredited?
We are not surprised the UN is being stupid, but the arrogance of the Brits is a surprise. No one likes Sudan's war on Darfur except for people like China, but a diplomat is a diplomat. He has no right to express his personal opinions. What is about a diplomat's duties the UK doesn't understand?

0230 GMT October 22, 2006

News situation becoming mindlessly positively really dismal.

We feature a shorter-than-normal update due to unspecified difficulties.

Somalia Government Takes Town; ICU Vows Counterattack BBC says that yesterday Somali government and Ethiopian troops took a town near the government's capital of Baidoa. So it would seem the Ethiopians are finally starting to move - we had earlier said they were training Somali forces and reconnoitering.
Islamic Courts says it is preparing a counteroffensive. On the limited information available to us, we do not rate the chances of success for ICU to be high. Nonetheless, there is a wild card: if Eritrean troops come in on ICU's side, this would change the equation.
Quoting diplomatic sources, BBC says there are 6-8000 Ethiopian troops in Somalia and 2000 Eritrean troops. Based on our our information, the former is too high and the latter may be in the right ballpark.
Our Problem In Assessing The Somalia Situation The problem for us is that we are not on top of the daily happenings in the area: following the general problems at Orbat.com that saw our Orders of Battle component - the primary reason for our existence - substantially fade, our network of agents is also sadly depleted. So the news we receive is often late.
It is quite possible many, most, or all the Ethiopians poised on their side of the border waiting to enter Somalia as needed indeed did move in prior to Saturday's push, and have been replaced by other troops preparing to enter.
Our other problem is that we have no information worth anything on the breakdown of Ethiopian forces in Somalia. How many are in Ethiopian units and how many are trainers/stiffeners with Somalia forces - which are small and consist of troops loyal to the interim president - and with pro-government militias.
Maybe we should start acting like other private intelligence services and just make up figures we attribute to our "sources". In this case the sources would be Baby Leo, Sylvester, New Bear, and Gilroy, the editor's Teddy Bear family. Critics - the editor's ex-wives and children now grown up - allege the foregoing are simply stuffed toys who just lie around in bed all day. Well, sticks and stones. The editor's Humans Family can believe what they want, but we are sure the Teddies will do a better job of gathering information than some intel services, private or government.
US Diplomat Says America "Stupid" & "Arrogant" In Iraq Quite undiplomatic, especially when said to al-Jazzera. US State Department denies he used those words, but BBC Arabic language experts say he did, the bad, bad boy.
So now it isn't just the generals, the diplomats have started beating up on the Administration.
Incidentally, while the gentleman is being described as "senior" by the media, he is anything but. He handles public diplomacy in State's Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs. We've seen the media refer to colonel rank officers as "senior". That might be the case in Chad or Fiji, but not in most armies. doubtless the diplomat is senior in terms of years of service; that doesn't make him senior in terms of position in State's organization.
UNIFIL Commander Says Rules Do Not Allow Firing On Israeli Overflights Well, duh, everyone knew that. 1701 authorizes UNIFIL to use force only if attacked, not to protect Lebanon's territorial integrity. The interesting thing is, however, that the idea of UNIFIL countering Israeli overflights was brought up by the French in the first place.
Israel May Have To Reoccupy Gaza-Egypt Border Meanwhile, back at the ranch, a senior officer of the IDF - yes, he is a major-general and therefore senior in the IDF - says Israeli may have to reoccupy a 400-meter strip of the entire Gaza-Egypt border to interdict large-scale arms smuggling via tunnels from Egypt to Gaza. This item comes from Debka.com
Debka also says foreign fighters are flocking to Hamas in Palestine in preparation for a Hamas showdown with Fatah. We cannot speak for Debka's news as we don't know, but there is no reason why some number of foreign fighters should not be strengthening Hamas. There has to be a showdown between Fatah and Hamas before the infighting in Palestine can cease. So when it ceases, with either a Fatah or Hamas victory, the infighting between the factions on the winner's side can begin.
It is said of Indians that one Indian is a religion, two are a crowd, and three are a full-scale riot. This can be applied equally to the Mideast. One Mideasterner is an AK-47 toting discontent, two are an armed faction, and three are a full-scale civil war.

0230 GMT October 21, 2006

News situation becoming mindlessly positively really dismal

Al-Sadr Militia Briefly Seizes Control Of Amarah This is the southern town that the British decided recently to vacate, as in "we are tired of getting attacked, so we are packing up and leaving". Can't say we blame them, this isn't their war.
The issue that led to fighting between local police and Al-Sadr militiamen was a local one. The militia took over the town for some hours, till Al-Sadr instructed them to pull back.
So here we go to the glass half-full/half-empty that is the only working paradigm if you want to understand Iraq. Half-full: the Iraq Army restored government control; 200+ soldiers are in the town, another 500+ plus a UK battlegroup are outside to help if needed. It wasn't Al-Sadr who ordered this, it was a local rogue commander. Hooray for the government of Iraq, coalition, and so on. Al-Sadr is showing he is a responsible leader and so on.
Half-empty: Al-Sadr demonstrated that he can seize a Shia town outside Baghdad anytime he feels like it. Rogue commander? Then why is Al-Sadr being given credit for telling the militia to pull out? Al-Sadr is looking to start moving into Phase 3 of his guerilla war against the government of Iraq, i.e., go from control of certain countryside areas to controlling towns. Al-Sadr did not plan this incident, its eruption was due solely to a local dispute between the militia and the police. Nonetheless, he is showing his power: "I pulled my men back; next time perhaps I won't".
Ethiopia Confirms Its Troops Are In Somalia but only as trainers, according to an article forwarded by reader Marocpetroni.
OK, that's a step forward from saying there are no Ethiopian troops in Somalia, the previous Ethiopian position. But it's still not the whole truth: there are, we estimate, upwards of 600 Ethiopian troops as combat units, not as trainers, inside Somalia, mainly in the Baidoa area, and there are at least 1500 more across the border ready to cross when needed.
So what are the Ethiopians up to? We think they are basically protecting the Somalia government in its last stronghold, and their presence is working: the Islamic Courts has not attacked despite all indications it was preparing to do so after taking almost all of south Somalia. Meanwhile, the Ethiopians are reconnoitering to prepare for larger scale action, as also training/arming local clans opposed to the ICU.
Eritrea is arming the ICU because of its ongoing dispute with Ethiopia. Eritrea is not about to let Ethiopia have the sole run of Somalia. Incidentally, Eritrea denies US charges it is intervening in Somalia: this is quite boring and constitutes playing stupid diplomatic games to no purpose. What the US is saying is independently verified.
Also meanwhile, ICU continues moves towards Talibanizing Somalia: in Mogidshu, bathing beaches for men and women are to be segregated from now on.
OK, so what is the US up to? You could say not a whole lot. US is quite aware of the acute dangers, and the usual assortment of CIA/military operatives are tromping all over the place. But they have been tromping around ever since 9/11, so this is not a new development. US would rather, however, have the local nations sort this one out. Right now this is a State Department mission, not a military one. Whether this strategy, as opposed to direct intervention, is wise/viable is something only time will tell. Its quite easy to argue pro or con.
Indian Investment Abroad Exceeds Foreign Inflows for the first 7 months of the year says BBC. It remains to be seen if the trend holds up, and much of that investment abroad is in a single deal - Tata is buying the former British Steel. But that is true even for half of one year marks an astonishingly huge change for India. The ramifications are too many and too complex to discuss here, so we'll simply say anyone who knows the India of old has reason to gape.
Another development: Cell phones are being added in India at the rate of 6 million a month. In 3 years one quarter of all Indians will have cell phones. This equates to more than one phone per household.
Big deal, you will say, China is heading for one phone per two people. True, but China began its economic growth a decade ahead of India, and much of its growth was - and still is - fuelled by the return of money illegally exported from China. This was the proceeds of government and military corruption. India had/has much government corruption, but its concentrated at the lower levels. India being a democracy, you did not have the local party bosses in - say - Bombay/Mumbai accumulating hundreds of millions of dollars, exporting the money overseas, and then reinvesting it as "foreign investment".
And however imperfect, India is a country of laws. The son of the local governor cannot give land to McDonald's in the center of town and use the police to force people out of their houses for ridiculously low sums. This is good for democracy, but does put India at a disadvantage vis-a-vis China in the race for economic development.
Also, please note India is supposed to have a per capita income of $800; China is supposed to have $2000. The Indian figure is, of course, way too low: India is one of the very few countries in the world that makes itself out to be poorer than it really is. Conversely, one sometimes has to wonder about Chinese economic claims.
Incidentally, now people are saying in Nigeria $380-billion has been swallowed due to corruption, mainly in the sale of oil. The figure has to be approached with caution. Yet consider: Nigeria's population is approximately 125 million, and per capita $1000. The sum lost equates to an investment of $3000 for every man, woman, and child in Nigeria, suggesting per capita income could have been 2-4 times higher depending on what assumptions you use for investment:return ratios. Cast in US terms, the figure would be an alleged $35-trillion in revenues lost to high-level corruption in, say, the last 30 years

0230 GMT October 20, 2006

President Bush Rejects Baker Report The report has not been officially presented, but its two main recommendations for Iraq have been leaked: permit three semi-autonomous regions and get US troops out of Iraq.
Yesterday President Bush rejected the report, saying US would persist in aiming for victory and a break-up of Iraq would be disaster.
So, the old boy has made his bed and must now lie in it.
Invoking The "V" Word President Bush's penchant for the misspoke word is famous. One reason your editor was and remains a big supporter of the president - though not of any of his major policies - is your editor is convinced the president misspeaks due to a learning disability. Your editor has the same problem.
Nonetheless, it probably wasn't the most politic thing for President Bush to do when he blithely conceded to a media person that there might be a comparison between Vietnam and Iraq. The president was making the point that the Tet Offensive sapped US support for Vietnam, and the increasing casualties in Baghdad and elsewhere might possibly sap support for Iraq.
Nothing wrong with saying that, its a simple acknowledgement of reality.
But America is a nation of lawyers, and once you've said "Vietnam" and "Iraq" in the same paragraph, you've given the media the opening it needs to conflate the two. The media will then go on and on and on hammering away, and pretty soon a lot of people will start talking about the similarities.
Remember, in America nothing is real unless the media says its real.
US Military Says Baghdad Pacification A Failure Perhaps surprisingly, the real news of the day is the US military's statement on Baghdad. President Bush's statements are, in the larger sense, irrelevant. It will not be him who decides what happens in Iraq, it will be the US military.
The point is not the strategy is failing, but that the military says so, and that too within a very short period of two months. It is not like the US military to easily admit failure, and so openly at that. First came the report that Anbar is a gone case, then came a series of reports that Iraqi forces cannot cope with the increasing violence, indeed, many components are contributing to the violence, and now Baghdad. Anyone see a pattern here?
Its the military saying, "Charles, nothing is working." Get a hint, Mr. President.
The uproar over the British Chief of General Staff undercutting his Prime Minister on Iraq by saying UK troops needed to leave was loud enough it made the US papers and even elicited some editorial comment. It is then tres peculiar that US media cannot see what is a defacto revolt by their own military against the inane strategy forced on it by the administration's Giant Minds. The Giant Minds have all withdrawn like cockroaches into the drains and sewers. Either they are directing the war from the drains and sewers, or no one is directing it.

0230 GMT October 19, 2006

News situation becoming positively really dismal

US Announces New Space Policy - Sort Of As usual, we are confused as to why the government chooses to make a big hoohoohaha every time it uses new words to restate old policy. Government now says control of space is as important to US security as control of land, sea, and air, and nothing is going to stop the US from doing what it has to do to assure that control.
This is a new policy? It has always been US policy from the dawn of the space age. Someone in Washington needs to stop wasting taxpayers' money and our time. Sheesh.
Debka.com Says Italy To Supply Aster 15 SAM Battery To Lebanon to challenge Israeli overflights. Italy is allegedly waiting for French clearance as the two countries produce the missile jointly.
Debka follows with the usual editorial comments about the Israeli government selling out the country etc etc.
We'd like to first ask Debka, precisely what government do you want before you are assured Israel is not being sold down the river?
Second, why carry on and on when everyone knows the government quite reasonably got out of a very bad situation re. Hezbollah/Lebanon? What did Debka want, another full-scale invasion of Lebanon? More bombs and shells dumped on ground that was being attacked five, ten, a dozen times over? And to what purpose? The way things were going the whole darn world bar the US was against Israel, had it continued the war, a whole lot of more bad things would have happened to Israel. The war was a disaster, the way it ended was a disaster, but if it had not ended, it would have been a bigger disaster.
Third, lets assume a SAM battery is cleared for Lebanon. Reasonably, the induction of sophisticated equipment will take years. where is the danger to Israeli overflights? Or is Debka saying Italian troops will man the battery? if so, aren't we jumping to conclusions because where is the evidence Italy is prepared to take such a serious step?
Xinhua Dispatch From Afghanistan An interesting but short dispatch from an Afghan Army base near the Pakistan border. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-10/19/content_5221635.htm Though we are not sure if the 105mm light gun used by US artillery qualifies as a "huge cannon". The 203mm howitzer and 175mm gun were huge cannon.
Here is a photo of the 175mm from www.globalsecurity.org if you want huge:
The gun fired a 67-kg shell to a maximum range of 33-kilometers. Nice to have in an artillery duel. All old stuff, of course, now the MLRS does the long-range business.

0230 GMT October 18, 2006

News situation becoming really dismal

How Iraq Crises Are Met Step 1: Crisis erupts in a zone. Step 2: US troops shifted from elsewhere to meet the crisis. Step 3. US troops restore status quo ante. Step 4: Crisis elsewhere requires withdrawal of US troops from now stable zone. Step 5: Crisis returns.
Cost to US: Another couple of billion dollars per crisis, mounting casualty list.
Theory: as Iraqi security forces build up, they can take on more and more responsibility, reducing the need for US troops.
Reality: Iraqi police and paramilitary have repeatedly - as in again and again and again - proven themselves incapable of heavy lifting, or if capable, proven themselves incapable of impartiality. The Interior Ministry's paramilitary forces generally worsen a situation, not improve it. Police sensibly split at the first sign of trouble. Army is the only moderately impartial authority, but not only does it have sectarian problems, as the crises multiply, the Army runs out of reliable troops.
US started Iraq Army rebuild with a 3-division target. Then it went to 10. Now even 10 is grossly inadequate even if the police/paramilitary did its job, which it does not.
Calm Returns To Balad as US and Iraqi Troops Pour In Expect trouble to erupt elsewhere.
DPRK Said Preparing 2nd N-Test US Presidential spokesperson says this is "unwise". So after all the sound and the fury, signifying nothing, US is reduced to saying a second test is "unwise?". Excuse us, is this the best the world's sole superpower can come up with?
Here, wussie wussie, come on wussie wussie, here's your saucer of milk, nice wussie, who's the good kitty?
Israel Preparing For Gaza Offensive says Jerusalem Post, because rockets continue to be fired from Palestine territory and because its caotive soldier has not been released.
Meanwhile, Debka.com has been saying Syria and Iran are supplying the Palestinians with weapons and advisors, focusing on Hamas's 6500 man rapid action force.
If so, we can expect greater resistance to an Israeli attack than hitherto, but you cannot clone Hezbollah overnight. IDF should have no trouble rolling up opposition.
Chances of the offensive getting their man back: Zero. Chances of stopping rockets: Good, if IDF plans to entrench itself in Gaza for another long-term stay.

0230 GMT October 17, 2006

News situation becoming really dismal

The Reason For The New Iraqi Violence is apparently the minority Shias in the Sunni belt got tired of being at the victim end of the Sunnis, so they called in Shia militias to even the score. The al-Sadr militia is, as usual, in the forefront - when it comes to killing unarmed civilians they are quite good; nonetheless, to our surprise, the Badr militia is also in the scene doing its share of slaughtering.
Badr militia owes its allegiance to the Najaf clerics and till now, as far as we know, stayed out of the sectarian violence.
Now, if someone wants to continue splitting hairs as to if this is a civil war or not, they're welcome to do as they please. We simply want US troops out so they can be redeployed to fight winnable wars. The situation is now such that its pointless to say "if the US withdraws, Iraq will degenerate into civil war." In any case, since when is it America's responsibility to stop people who want to kill each other? The Balkans were different because one side or the other were victims. In Iraq, however, Sunnis and Shias are equally responsible and both sides want America out.
Washington, get the hint.
French Tell Israelis They May Fire On Israeli Overflights In Lebanon says Haaretz of Israel, quoting the Israeli defense minister. The minister says the flights will nonetheless continue until Israel is satisfied UN 1701 is fully implemented.
Since by definition the Israelis will not be satisfied - for example, they say 1701 requires UN to disarm Hezbollah which of course it does not - we may assume Israel will continue overflights. We have defended Israel's right to do so just as we defend the US's rights to overfly areas of security concern.
The minister says Syria is resupplying Hezbollah. Yawn. Tell us something new, please.
US Intelligence Confirms DPRK Test Was N-Weapon Frankly, unless someone shows us a technical breakdown of the isotopes US recon aircraft sampled, we aren't going to conclude anything. The test could have been a fizzle - with reactor grade that is a problem. It could have been conventional with radioactive material thrown in to give the impression of an N-test - though presumably since DPRK said the test would be completely contained this would not make sense.
People get confused on N-weapons because the science is relatively simple, so they think the technology also must be. This is not the case. This is why we maintain Pakistan has no N-weapons and neither does DPRK. Going from a reactor-grade Pu fizzle to a weapon is a very long way.
Ultimately none of this matters. The US needs to say this was an authentic N-test in order to keep the momentum in sanctions. And if DPRK regime remains in power, one day it will have sufficient Pu of sufficient purity to build bombs. This may be 2015 - the time frame we see for Iran - or later. A few years this way or that way hardly matter. DPRK will do everything to get N-weapons and unless the regime is brought down, it will succeed.
The issue is of bringing down the regime. Sanctions are not going to do the job. Never have. Conversely, US is politically in no position to make a disarming strike or invade DPRK.
So our suggestion to everyone is: lets relax, and enjoy the cucumber sandwiches.
LTTE Kills 100 Sri Lanka Sailors They launched a suicide attack against 15 buses carrying the unarmed sailors proceeding on leave.
This is the second setback for the government in less than 7 days. BBC opines that peace talks planned for next month are in jeopardy. The government had been winning and was sort of willing to talk peace. The LTTE, however, do not like to negotiate from a losing position. But now the government is losing, and neither does it like to negotiate from a losing position. The prospect is, then, for more war as usual.

0230 GMT October 16, 2006

News situation becoming really dismal

More Violence in Kirkuk; Killings in Balad we haven't been able to get a handle on why violence seems to be spreading in Iraq. Killings continue in Kirkuk - at least 10 dead - which has been relatively peaceful till recently, and now mass killings have taken place in Balad - 40 dead. The usual melancholy toll in Baghdad continues - 30 dead.
First, is violence really spreading to other parts of Iraq or is this a media perception?
Second, if violence is spreading, is it because the defacto civil war is heating up? Since Sunnis and Shias have been busy slaughtering each other in Baghdad, could it be that people in other parts of the country have decided to go at each other.
Third, could it be that people recognize the partition of Iraq is inevitable and the jockeying to shape the partition has begun?
In Iraq, Its Fatal To Be Impartial The commander of the Interior Ministry's Scorpions CI unit, a Shia, has been killed, apparently by troops of his own faith. He made a reputation for impartiality, taking on Shia killers with the same enthusiasm as he hunted Sunni killers.
No prizes for predicting his death will cool the enthusiasm of other officers/officials who are fighting for Iraq as opposed to fighting for their sectarian interests.
US Military Planning Calls For Current Iraq Troop Level Through 2010 according to military.com. Officials emphasize this is a planning figure which could be adjusted up or down as required. 140,000 troops in 15 brigades are in Iraq at this time.
Pay A Mullah For a Fatwa On Demand We should have reported this mid-September story a long time ago. An Indian media organization paid off different mullahs to issue different fatwas on the same subjects, for example, watching TV.
That the mullahs were quite casual about issuing asked for fatwas in exchange for dineros is not a matter of any surprise. Nor is it a matter of surprise an Indian media organization undertook this exercise. Political correctness has not hit India the way it has hit America. A British media organization could get away with this exercise. we can't imagine a US media organization would getaway with it.
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1537516,00.html
Now, corruption in religion in India is hardly unique to Muslims: Indian priests are notorious for requiring mucho dinero. The point is, however, a Hindu priest cannot tell people to watch TV or not watch TV, use cell phones or not, and more to point, go kill someone on not because the good book requires it. No Hindu priest can declare a holy war, mayhem, and murder. Islamic clerics can, and that's what makes them dangerous.

0230 GMT October 15, 2006