0230 GMT November 30, 2006
Heavy Fighting In South Sudan reports BBC. Readers are probably quite fed up of our stories of various African conflicts, nonetheless,, we need to point out this conflict has nothing to do with Darfur, which is in West Sudan. There was a 20-year civil war between Muslim North Sudan and Christian South Sudan, and of course, oil had a lot to do with it - the South has most of the oil. Nonetheless, two years ago a peace treaty was signed. This left open the eventual status of the South, but the two military forces were to be integrated. The ceasefire has held, so we're a bit taken aback at this new development.
Central African Republic: No New News In case you were wondering (yes, yes, we know you want to say "Not!") about the CAR, there is no new news except the government claims it has recovered one town lost to rebels; the rebels deny this. Fighting between rebels and CAR forces in the north is said to be still continuing.
The following background is from IRIN, a UN humanitarian news service: Government troops backed by the French army have retaken the northern town of Birao a month after it was captured by forces of the Union des forces démocratiques pour le rassemblement (UFDR), presidential press director Lord Esaie Nganamokoi said on Tuesday. "The army is in full control," he told IRIN.
The army's next objective, he said, would be to retake the northern towns of Ouadda-Djalle, Ouadda and Sam-Ouandja, seized by UFDR forces when they began their insurrection on 31 October. After these towns fell, UFDR said its next target would be the mining town of Bria, 650 km northeast of Bangui, the capital.
Somalia: Ethiopian Forces Clash With Islamic Courts All we know is this happened about the weekend, south of Baidoa, and that Ethiopian tanks were involved.
Meanwhile, Islamic Courts has consolidated its hold on Mogadishu further by "persuading" business groups to give up the heavy weapons they have acquired for their security over the years. Some are happy that security has sufficiently improved that they can be relieved of responsibility for their defense; others are not happy because they don't see the situation as stable. ICU has given the businessmen 30 days to hand over heavy weapons, so this is not the voluntary effort ICU might want people to believe.
Also meanwhile, US is still chugging along with its failed policies and is trying to put together an international peacekeeping force that will exclude regional countries to make it more acceptable to the Somali factions.
News to the Giant But Vacant Brains In Washington: the reason there has been no success in this matter so far is that no neutral party wants to get involved in factional fighting. ICU has made clear it will fight any international force, and reasonably so, because why should ICU voluntarily give up the control it has gained over southern Somalia?
The people willing to contribute to such a force happen to be exactly the ones who are not neutral, i.e., the neighbors, and they welcome the opportunity to legitimize their interventions.
So US either backs Ethiopia all the way and squeezes countries like Eritrea who are helping ICU, or it intervenes itself, or it accepts what to us seems inevitable, given the Super La La Land Washington is living in these days. That is, it accepts a Taliban-like state, Africa's first. We have repeatedly said Washington's Fatal Obsession with Iraq - and there is no Sharon Stone or Demi Moore to make it more palatable - is costing it everywhere, all over the world, in the Terror War.
Right now we see the worst of all possible outcomes: US is going to lose, badly, in Iraq, and just about everywhere else. Then maybe Americans will come to their senses, hang those responsible for the mess to "encourage" others to be more clear-minded, and start all over again with a clean state.
At which point we have to go "Muuuuhahahahahaha!" We really crack ourselves up with our wicked sense of humor, because the chances of Americans coming to their senses are precisely nil. Right now Americans would just rather keep on with the easy options on the GWOT and not get with the hard options, and frankly, we can't blame them.
Meanwhile, Terrorist Al-Sadr Withdraws Support For the Iraqi Government because the Prime Minister kept to his meeting with Mr. Bush. Al-Sadr, who we believe thinks - correctly - that Mr. Bush wants various unmentionable things done to al-Sadr, threatened the withdrawal before Mr. Bush arrived. The Iraqi PM, who looks about as in control as a deer in the headlights, obviously had no choice but to meet Mr. Bush, his King Emperor.
That didn't stop the PM from thrashing about and pretending he is independent of the US: he put off his meeting with Mr. Bush. Thereby nicely confirming what Washington already believes, that the PM is too weak to govern, things having gone from steadily bad to worse since he took over.
Al-Sadr has not left the government. Presumably the withdrawal of support means the 6 ministers and 30 MPs will not report for work.
Pentagon To Shift 2 More Battalions To Baghdad says Washington Post, and is looking for units that it can spare from other parts of the country. The whole concept of units to spare in Iraq is an oxymoron. Pentagon is also looking to mobilize 4 combat engineer battalions. That, says WP, will cause problems as 3 have already been recalled once. This means involuntary stay in service orders will be forced on them a second time.
We are unclear on what 2 more battalions are expected to do. Two more brigades might put the US Army in an acceptable position to take on al-Sadr's militia in one of their two strongholds. Doubtless the militia will be beaten, as it has on two occasions earlier. But doubtless it knows that and will start infiltrating out of Sadr City as soon as the writing on the wall is clear, and live to fight somewhere else.
Also, now al-Sadr has at least 8 times as many fighters as he did in 2004. And many of his men have been thoughtfully trained by the US military - they enlisted to get training, and then deserted.
So if you really want to get al-Sadr, let's start with 4 more divisions. No chance, you say? Then forget al-Sadr, and forget Iraq. Lets go home and enjoy our PS3s and WIIs and nice, cold longnecks.
Mr. Bush meanwhile is insisting, with noble mein: "No surrender! On to victory". Okay, Big Boy, tell us how you define victory, as a start. We sincerely hope your No Surrender ranks in seriousness with your "Rumsfeld Will Not Resign" litany just before you shot Rummy and put him out of his misery.
0230 GMT November 29, 2006
Al-Sadr Militia Most Powerful Force In Iraq with 60-70,000 fighters - and growing, Orbat.com adds. The figures come from the same report that was leaked to the Washington Post about Anbar province being lost to the US.
Al-Sadr is within a hop, skip, and jump of taking over Iraq. We have been warning readers about this supreme terrorist, whose men have probably killed more people in Iraq than the official insurgents. The Iraqi government cannot face up to him. We wish everyone good luck in dealing with this crazed fanatic, they're going to need it.
Baghdad Still Quiet Only 36 bodies were found Tuesday. US forces are still expecting a spike in violence in retaliation for the Sadr City bombings last Thursday, but on the second day after the curfew was lifted things are still relatively quiet.
French Troops Open Fire On CAR Rebels after a French aircraft bringing supplies and/or reinforcements to the north was fired on by rebels.
No Indication Of When Hezbollah Will Start Its Campaign to overthrow the Lebanese government which it says is unrepresentative of the Shia's, at 40% Lebanon's largest ethnic group. Hezb says only it is going ahead but will not make advance announcements.
US/NATO Effort To Get More Troops/Stronger Commitment For Afghanistan Fails Now, this is not the headline you are going to read in most media sources, because NATO HQ has perfected the American art of spin. According to NATO the recent meeting was a success with the reluctant states agreeing to deploy their contingents to combat zones as emergencies require, and other troops have committed more troops.
In reality nothing has changed - read http://www.afp.com/english/news/stories/061128233828.et2ps0nv.html. With the ruthless rationality for which the French are famous and can usually be counted on to display, AFP pulls no punches in its report.
Talking Of France, Segolene Royal Is The Socialist Candidate for president. We overlooked this piece of important news. If elected, she will be the first woman in the position and she has promised a completely different way of doing things. Commentators say her attraction for voters is a Blair-like promise of fresh air in the musty rooms of the "good old boy" French political establishment.
Hold that thought: Commentators are not saying that, we just did - sometimes we get carried away. Nonetheless, that is the gist of what commentators are saying.
Israeli Army To Increase Training By 40% Also brigade and division exercises, which have not been held since 2000, are to be resumed. We don't have to add anything here: you can understand why the Lebanon War was such a disaster. But, to Israel's credit, it is acting quickly.
0230 GMT November 28, 2006
Baghdad Quiet After Curfew Lifted There was serious apprehension of trouble once the curfew was lifted on Monday. Instead it seems less than 25 people were killed in Baghdad.
No Indication Of When Hezbollah Will Start Its Campaign to overthrow the Lebanese government which it says is unrepresentative of the Shia's, at 40% Lebanon's largest ethnic group. Hezb says only it is going ahead but will not make advance announcements.
Israel-Palestine Seems To Be Holding Of course, with the militants firing 12 rockets on Sunday alone and the Israelis killing 5 militants in Gaza alone - the West Bank is not covered by the ceasefire - one may wonder what the much-vaunted ceasefire is about.
Nonetheless, the Israelis seem to think it is holding so we'll go along with that assessment. The situation is too complicated for us to try and unravel on our own.
Chad government troops are patrolling the capital in large numbers even as the government says there is no danger of a rebel attack.
One rebel group says it has halted its advanced 200 km from the capital.
Indian SSM intercepts another SSM? Say What? Okay, someone has to explain this to us. India's standard corps-level SSM is the Prithvi. The Indians have announced that one Prithvi intercepted another.
As far as we know, Prithvi is a big, fat, liquid-fuel SSM with a limited CEP. So since when does anyone use liquid-fuel missiles to shoot down other missiles? Clearly we are missing something.
0230 GMT November 27, 2006
Chad Army Retakes One Of Two Towns near the Sudan border earlier lost to rebels. Meanwhile, rebels advance but French sources say they have stopped. The French have not identified the rebel positions; CNN, Reuters estimates from the name of the province it is between 150-375 miles from the capital.
Palestine Ceasefire Mainly Holding despite the firing of 3 rockets by the militants. President Abbas has ordered Palestine Authority security forces to deploy to areas from which rockets are launched. All well and good, and soothingly satisfied.
But are the PA security forces going to actually use force to stop their brothers for inflicting violence on Israel? If they are, they will become targets. If they don't, Israel will retaliate and the cycle will start again.
So we would suggest readers not hold their breath on this one.
Leftist Ally Of President Chavez Apparently Wins Ecuador Election based on exit polls. He says he will not repay some of Ecuador's foreign debt he considers illegitimate and will not sign a free-trade agreement with the US.
We urge the US to continue treating the region with benign neglect. The people of Ecuador have spoken; let's respect their sovereign rights. Its up to them to decide what advantages or disadvantages they see in the US relationship. And the US already has far too much on its hands.
If all these South American leaders turn out to be petty despots like President Chavez, that's fine, its up to the people to overthrow them. The US did its best, for decades, to prevent change in South America in the name of stability. Then it did it best to help bring about that change, and the continent became democratic. Now lets leave it alone.
Lebanon: Volatile And Confusion Abounds as always. Hezbollah says it will not tolerate any international tribunal trying the suspects in the Harari murder case. So ostensibly this should lead to civil war, as the government says it is determined to have the international tribunal, which will also try the case of the recently murdered minister, once suspects are found.
In reality, the pro-Syrian president has to okay the tribunal; the government, which is anti-Syrian after the resignation of Hezbollah and other pro-Syria ministers, cannot override him. So if he says no and the government accepts, this cannot become an excuse for civil war. But if the government ignores the president, then on this one issue alone we have a match for the tinder.
Nonetheless, Hezbollah is determined to have power proportionate to the 40% of the population that is Shia, and that means Hezbollah will be the arbiter of what happens in Lebanon. Particularly so as other ethnic groups are not united. The anti-Syria factions, who are also pro-western, cannot accept this. So this issue would seem inevitably to lead to confrontation and war.
Goodness Gracious, NATO HQ Is Actually Showing Some Spine NATO's Secretary General wants to end the exemption that Germany, France, Spain and Italy enjoy in deploying their Afghan contingents away from danger areas.
So far, says Times London, 90% of casualties have been born by the US, Canada, UK, and Netherlands.
We'd have had a lot of fun if this exemption system had been in place during the Warsaw Pact threat period, wouldn't we now? The NATO alliance is a "one for all, all for one" agreement. If the above countries do not consider Afghanistan to be critical to their security interests, let them leave NATO and go where they want for their security.
What Being A Policeman In Iraq Entails A reality check article by CNN http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/11/26/iraq.dangerous.job.ap/index.html After reading it you wonder not why the Iraqi police are ineffective but that there are any police functioning at any level in the first place.
0230 GMT November 26, 2006
Israel, Palestine In Surprise Gaza Ceasefire Just when another round of pointless fighting in Gaza seemed inevitable, Israel and Palestine announced a ceasefire in Gaza. The West Bank is not covered.
Palestine factions will stop firing rockets, sending suicide bombers, and other actions; the Israelis will pull out of Gaza and stop air strikes.
We have been down this road many times and the potential for breakdown is all too apparent. It takes just one faction or one individual to reject the ceasefire, and then Israel will begin retaliating, saying the Palestinians are not doing enough to stop the violence. On the Israeli side, it takes one attack against a terrorist important enough that Israeli cannot afford to let him go, and then its "here we go again. A ceasefire can be maintained only if there is a complete change in Israeli attitudes towards the Palestinians - unlikely, and complete sanity on the Palestinians' part - also unlikely.
Chad Rebels Claim Two Eastern Border Towns in their new push from Sudan sanctuaries; the Government denies claim, though it seems from BBC reports that one town has indeed fallen. A French garrison is based in one of the towns.
This new offensive comes after the failed April offensive. BBC says what's unusual this time is that two rebel groups made a coordinated attack.
French Reinforce CAR There is trouble with rebels also in the Central African Republic; France has sent 100 reinforcements to bolster a garrison of 200 where skirmishes have taken place.
Venezuela Loses $6-Billion Due To Petrol Subsidies says the Washington Post. Petrol is sold at a losing price 17 cents a gallon, the lowest price in the world; in addition, $5-billion is lost because excessive use by Venezuelans reduces export availability.
We are not entirely convinced about these figures, but no matter how one cuts it, 17 cents a gallon means a loss for the government. Nonetheless, Washington Post makes clear Venezuelans consider subsidized petrol as a birthright. The populist president has no intention of making trouble with his supporters, but even if he had fiscal concerns there may be nothing he can do as any attempt to raise prices could lead to violence.
US Scientist Of Indian Origin Arrested for selling critical secrets regarding the B-2 to PRC, and other secrets to Israel and possibly to Germany. This gentleman was calmly using email to hawk his wares. He was on a top-secret team for B-2 development, and is said to have made $2 million.
As more and more Indians, legal and illegal, come to settle in the US, the Indian community which is held in very high regard is increasingly going to have its good, bad, and ugly members. The case of the scientist sadly shows Indians are being well and truly assimilated.
Russia Starts Export of Tor-M SAMs To Iran despite very heavy US lobbying. The 29 systems are worth $700-million, and obviously Russia was not going to give up the sale just to keep the US happy. We are unclear on what "system" involves; usually when Russians use that nomenclature it means a battery, though $22-million/battery for this advanced and expensive missile seems much too low.
Tor-M is a tactical system and does not affect any potential US air strike, though of course right now there is zero chance of such action by the US.
0230 GMT November 25, 2006
Iraqi Shia Terrorist al-Sadr Finally Shows His Hand Against the backdrop of Shia retaliation for the deaths of 215 Sadr City residents presumably at the hands of Sunni bombers, the Number 1 terrorist in Iraq, al-Sadr, has finally shown his hand.
He threatens to pull out of the ruling coalition if the Prime Minister meets with President Bush next week, and he wants the Americans gone. His motivation is transparent: having done his part to bring Iraq into its present civil war, he wants to start moving in for the kill which will leave him ruler of Shia Iraq. The Americans are the only thing standing in the way - and the only people he fears.
US Building Option To Spike Iraq Forces In this connection its worth noting that our colleague Joseph Stefula has sent us details of the OIF-5 rotation that has begun. Due to extensions of some units, it looks like there will be a period in which the US will have 18 brigade equivalents in Iraq. This does not mean the "surge and reduce" option has been chosen, suffice it to say the US will have that option. And it looks as if Baghdad is slated for a major increase in troops.
Looking At The Situation From al-Sadr's Viewpoint The US can say all it wants that this buildup is intended to bring down the violence to give Iraqi forces a chance to get a grip on the situation, but you can see al-Sadr's will have a different interpretation, that the Americans are preparing to come after him again. Despite all the chaos of the last few days, the Americans have been launching raid after raid into Sadr City. They say they're doing it to get information on their missing soldier. At the same time, these raids are exactly what you'd expect if the US is planning a major assault on al-Sadr: they keep grabbing people for interrogation, and this is exactly what your patrols are supposed to do so you can prepare your offensive.
Once Again, The Iraqi Forces Display Their Partisanship No one needed to be told this, but once again the Iraqi Army and security forces are standing aside, letting al-Sadr's militia wreck mayhem on Sunnis. No one is enforcing a curfew the government ordered after the Sadr City bomb attacks - if you happen to be al-Sadr militia. The Iraqi Army and police brigades in Baghdad have been painstakingly trained by the Americans to be neutral and to think of Iraq's interests, not sectarian ones. But when push comes to shove, these troops are behaving no differently from other units.
This shows once again the state of fantasy Washington is operating under. We unequivocally state that the US can train Iraqi security forces till the sun grows cold and they are still going to be partisan. And we, for one, cannot blame them. When Sunnis are dying every day at the hands of Shias, how can Sunni troops justify protecting Shias, and vice versa?
One positive aspect of the current civil war is that at the rate Baghdad is being ethnically cleansed of Sunnis there soon won't be any Sunnis in need of protection left.
Hezbollah Holding Back; Anti-Syria Factions Demanding Action Hezb did not launch its street demonstrations on Thursday as threatened before the murder of the anti-Syrian minister; it now plans to act next week.
The problem now is the anti-Syria factions want action. They have gotten the UN to agree to investigate the murder - the same panel that did the Harari murder investigation will be on the job. But the pro-Syrian factions say that the panel has no legal jurisdiction and it remains to be seen if they will calmly accept a second major international condemnation of their patrons in Damascus.
Moreover, the anti-Syria factions are worried that if they don't push through their agenda now, the ruling coalition may fall apart under the threat of additional Syrian-sponsored assassinations.
So the stage is set for a confrontation.
0230 GMT November 24, 2006
Lebanon Minister Buried Peacefully There was no violence as as estimated 5-800,000 people attended the funeral of the anti-Syria Lebanese minister murdered two days ago.
Again, there was no prior direct threat of violence, but given the already tense stand-off between the Hezbollah/pro-Syria factions and the anti-Syria factions, the murder could not have come at a worse time and all Lebanon is expecting trouble. No one can say from which direction it will come.
One potential source is the plan by anti-Syrian factions to march on the president's palace - he is pro-Syria - to demand his resignation.
Sadr City Hit By Bombers, 161 Die and many of the 257 wounded are expected to die. 5 car bombs attacks, there of them suicide, were conducted. 42 other civilians were killed in other parts of Iraq. The civilian death toll was 3700 for October; this excludes police and soldiers who died in fighting. The latter includes over 100 US troops.
CNN coyly says this puts the country closer to civil war. Note to CNN: Mon, the civil war in is in full swing. There's no "closer" here. Baghdad witnessed almost 150 killed in the previous 3 days. Iraq's population is 1/12th that of the US; had 40,000 innocent American civilians died in factional violence in October alone, would CNN be talking about moving "closer" to civil war?
The preliminary Shia response was muted because time is required to retaliate. 4 mortar attacks aimed at Sunnis were made across Baghdad, include one against the most important Sunni mosque in the capital and one against the most influential school for Sunni theologians. There can be no doubt Shias, particularly al-Sadr's militia, are going exact revenge in spades.
Meanwhile, US forces stopped an attack by 30 Sunni fighters against the Shia controlled health ministry.
French UNIFIL Troops Cleared To Fire On Overflying Israeli Aircraft This makes clear the French are not playing around with the Israelis. We hear the French, along with the other UNIFIL II nations, understand Israel needs to conduct reconnaissance overflights - and regardless of what UN 1701 says, we feel Israel has that right. The problem is the mock air attacks the IsAF has been mounting to try and intimidate UNIFIL, for no practical reason at all.
Meanwhile, reader Marcopetroni forwards an Italian media report saying the Italians are very concerned about the possibility of attacks against their UNIFIL troops. Apparently, however, even leftist Italians feel strongly the contingent is doing a Good Thing and Italy is hanging tough. Fine, lets see what the mood is in Italy when one terrorist organization kills 50 Italian soldiers in an attack.
Letter From Walter Wallis Returning from a pleasant family Thanksgiving dinner, during the course of which expedition the worst discomfort he faced was a cool 35F outside temperature, your editor found Mr. Wallis's terse letter awaiting him:
"56 years ago I enjoyed a sumptuous Thanksgiving meal in a snowbank in Korea, warmed by MacArthur's assurance we would be home by Christmas."
0230 GMT November 23, 2006
US Moves To Stabilize Lebanon As Civil War Looms Actually, we just said that to get your attention. More apt would be "US Fiddles as Lebanon Burns".
Debka.com says the Lebanese government is deploying its army where ever it can in Beirut to prevent a Shia coup during the funeral of the just-slain minister. Debka is not, as we know, the most reliable of sources, but all reports coming out of Lebanon indicate big trouble is about to arrive.
This feeling first arose when Hezbollah won the political war against Israel in the 2006 Lebanon invasion - and did a pretty good job of giving the attacker a bloody nose with the promise of worse to come had Israel continued its advance. An emboldened Hezb started strutting all over the place and people began fearing that the hard-won peace after Lebanon's interminable civil war was going to come apart. No one could come up with plausible scenarios to justify their fears. People were simply afraid.
Then Hezb asked for greater representation in the Lebanese cabinet; when this was refused, it walked out along with an ally and then said it would take the matter to the streets, just another way of saying if you won't give us what we want, we're going to fight you.
Now Comes Yet Another Assassination, of a prominent Christian politician whose father is a former head of Lebanon and whose uncle, years ago, was murdered days before he was to assume leadership. The Christians are seething mad, but leaders are calling not for revenge but for calm: they know only too well that any trouble now will be used by Hezb and its Syrian ally to strike a potentially fatal blow at unified Lebanon.
What was the US response to its out-of-control-ally Israel's hammering of Lebanon in the 2006 War? An offer of a few hundred million in reconstruction aid, whenever that might come. What was the US response to Hezb's sudden open ascendency? We hope you're sitting down: an incredible $40-million in military aid - think Dr. Evil from Austin Powers and his "Ten Million Dollars!" Of that, the US has just signed an agreement for a $10-million installment.
Now, folks, in Iraq the US burns through that kind of money in a few hours, every single day. It is a savage tokenism and it is rebounding on America.
What America needed to have done was to have stopped Israel from beating up on Lebanon, that failing, there should have been an American brigade sent to Lebanon along with hundreds of trainers and several hundred dollars of equipment as a sign to Hezb: we're walking softly, but we have a big stick. And even if all this was not seen earlier, it is obvious now. A brigade of the 82nd Airborne Division should have been enroute to Lebanon tonight.
At This Point Anyone Following The State Of The US Armed Forces will break out into sarcastic laughter. A small item from www.military.com makes the point. Marine units are supposed to deploy 6-months out and then be home for 18-months - its not a rest period, they are training hard. Well, Marine infantry battalions have been deploying 7-months to Iraq and then coming home for 7-months before going back to Iraq for another 7-months. That is how short the US is of combat battalions. So us asking for 3 battalions for Lebanon is like the editor asking for a date with the new Bond lady, Eva Green. Nice try, but definitely no cigar.
The Price Of Doing It On The Cheap 4+ decades ago the editor was in college and working as the special assistant for new projects to the director of the student employment agency. He made $5/hour, about equivalent to to $37/hour today, a wage he has never since made. He could afford decent clothes, and while admittedly he wore them lightly, he still has jackets and ties from those days in reasonably good shape.
These days he buys the cheap stuff, and it falls apart in a year or two.
When the US went into the GWOT, it decided to do so on the cheap - not in terms of money, we are, after all, spending near a quarter trillion dollars annually directly or indirectly on the GWOT, but in terms of manpower.
What's happening in Lebanon, where the manure is hitting the fan, is a consequence of that policy. Similar things are happening in Somalia: its becoming an international battleground and the US doesn't have a Two of Spades to throw into the game.
When We Push, The Enemy Pushes Back Because America is led by teams of leaders, political, military, corporate, 4th Estate etc, who are intellectually challenged, morally impaired, and money corrupt, no one in Washington seems to understand when we push, the enemy is going to push back. So we got the Syrians out of Lebanon with a lot of threats, and then not only forgot about Lebanon, we assumed we'd bought the Lebanese for good with today's equivalent of $24 and a handful of costume jewelry. we had little further thought to expend on Lebanon.
After all, what is Lebanon but a rinky-dinky little nothing populated by a bunch of insignificant Levantines who can't tell their left feet from their rights hands? Why, we thought the little buggers were so grateful for the 5 minutes we spent 5 minutes on their case that they wouldn't dare raise their voices when our ally, Israel, caused $4 billion worth of infrastructure damage during the course of its idiotic war in Lebanon. And inflicted that damage not for any strategic or tactical purpose, but simply to blindly punish all Lebanon for allowing Hezb to exist - as if the Lebanese could do anything about Hezb and its 40% Shia population.
Now The Cowsies Are Coming Home To The Barn and they aren't coming back to don their bunny slippers, sip their mugs of hot cocoa, and prepare to lie down on their comfy, soft pink blankies. No sir, they are coming home to poop mighty poops on the head of the American eagle, and if Lebanon explodes into civil war, as looks likely thanks to the machinations of Hezb, Syria, and Iran, we will have yet another disaster courtesy of the same bunch who brought us Iraq.
Lebanon is fracturing, and we must face the brutal truth: the US has neither the time, nor the money, nor the troops, nor the Special Forces trainers, nor the CIA operatives, to do a darn thing about it.
Meanwhile, What Are Our Trusty Allies The Israelis Doing? Why, doing what they do best: embarking on yet another utterly pointless, completely futile, absolutely counter-productive offensive, this time into Gaza. Oh yeah, we're going to make them dirty Arabs squeak, oh yeah, we're going to squeeze them so hard the snot will eject from their noses, oh yeah, we're going to cause them a world of pain and so on. Sound familiar?
This new invasion is really going to help America's position in the Arab world, folks. But wait: there really is a positive aspect of this. America's prestige in the Arab world is so low right now that the Israelis can't drag it down any further.
Pinky And The Brain In the famous Steven Spielberg cartoon series, each episode ends with Brain's latest failure to take over the world. Then Pinky invariably asks "Gee, Brain, what do you want to do tonight?"
Brain invariably answers: "The same thing we do every night Pinky - try to take over the world!"
For Brain, substitute our Great Leaders. For Pinky, substitute the hapless citizens of America. A small change to Brain's reply accurately describes America's progress in the GWOT: "The same thing we do every night, Pinky - shoot ourselves right between the eyes with an elephant gun."
Narf.
0230 GMT November 22, 2006
Some Positive Iraq News For A Change - Sort Of The Times London visited Ramadi, the Anbar city of 400,000 Al Qaeda wants to make the capital for its Caliphate. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,7374-2461268_2,00.htm . The Times report is both heartening and frustrating and gives a good sense of opportunities lost by the Pentagon's refusal to mobilize/train more troops for Iraq.
That Anbar sheikhs have turned on Al Qaeda is quite clear, and the result is the US has been able to somewhat expand its "Go" zone in the city. A sheikh whose father and 3 brothers were killed by AQ is leading the Iraqi fight, even those he is a Sunni. He commands 30,000 tribesmen, and is feeding recruits into the local police force, which has increased from 35 to 1300 and is battling the insurgents alongside the US Army brigade from 1st Armored Division. For the first time in 2 years, AQ's star is waning, and the number of foreign fighters in the city has fallen from an estimated 1000 to perhaps 700.
Good news, all of this.
Now for the bad news. This brigade alone has lost 50 killed, bringing US KIA at Ramadi to 250. The Times report makes no mention of the Iraq Army or national police. Of course, this may be because its visit, courtesy of the US Army, was to highlight the sheikh's resistance to the insurgents. Still, its odd that no one the Times interviewed during its 24 hour visit had anything to say about the Iraq Army/National Police.
Moreover, the report makes clear Ramadi is far from being under US/Iraqi control. Troops live in mini-forts in the Go zones and outside the city; the city itself is totally battered by war and appears mostly under insurgent control. During the Times' visit, US troops killed 11 insurgents and lost a vehicle to IEDs.
The question is, why are just 3 US Army battalions available for Ramadi and 5-6 Marine battalions for the rest of Anbar? Why has it taken two years to just block AQ's advance?
And in the absence of Iraqi forces showing effectiveness, what is going to happen when US troops are withdrawn? Or are they going to have to remain another 10 years, losing perhaps 1000 more killed just for this one city and its environs? Had the US fielded sufficient troops to clear Fallujah and Ramadi simultaneously in 2004, the situation would be very different.
Syria Advances In Lebanon While the US grinds on with its losing Iraq effort, Syria is rapidly gaining in its counteroffensive after it was forced to leave Lebanon by UN order. Yet another pro-western minister has been killed, making - as nearly as we can tell - at least 5 top pro-western leaders.
Syria has piously denounced the assassination, but it is the only direct gainer from the situation. And the massive street demonstrations promised by Hezbollah start tomorrow, further destabilizing a situation already fragile because of Hezbollah/allies' resignation from the cabinet.
Can A Destroyer Be Bigger Than A Cruiser? Certainly, if its in US Navy service. Decades ago the editor used to specialize in the US Navy among other things, but since returning to the US, ironically he has had no time to peruse the subject. So it was with mild surprise he learned the other day that the US Navy's new Zumwalt class destroyer is going to tip the scales at 14,500-tons full-load (15,800 US tons), and then you're talking heavy cruisers. The Ticonderoga cruisers are 11,000 tons, in case anyone cares.
This is not the time for a rant by your editor concerning the complete idiocy of the US Navy's warship class and naming policy; for one thing the rant would be of interest to perhaps 5 people in the world. Nonetheless, these days we have aircraft carriers named after former presidents, an unmatched case of kissing political butts, submarines with cruiser names, cruisers with aircraft carrier names, and now we had better stop.
Meanwhile, it remains to be seen how many Zumwalts will be built.
0230 GMT November 21, 2006
No Chance US Will Reinstate Draft Senior Democratic Congressman Charles Rangel, a Korea veteran, has repeated his call for a draft to ensure the burden of service falls on the nation's youth and not just on "seven-tenths of 1%" - a phrase used by a military commentator. He intends to introduce a bill to the effect. Those not inducted into the military would do time in worthy causes.
There is no chance at all such a bill will pass. Congress is against it, the country is against it, and most importantly, the military is against it because it is much easier to work with volunteers than with draftees.
So the US will have to continue with the army it has - to paraphrase Mr. Rumsfeld, rather than the army it needs. So lets concede. Round One in the new Hundred Year War to the extremists.
US Rated Most Unfriendly To International Travelers reports Reuters, citing a poll of 2011 travelers from 16 countries. To quote: "More than half of the travelers surveyed said U.S. immigration officials were rude and two-thirds said they feared they would be detained on arriving in the United States for a simple mistake in their paper work or for saying the wrong thing to an immigration official." The entry process has created a climate of fear and frustration that is keeping foreign visitors away," said Geoff Freeman, executive director of the Discover America Partnership. "The survey shows there is more fear of our immigration officials than of terrorism or crime."
Gosh, these foreigners are weak sisters. Rudeness and fear of saying something wrong? Bah. Americans endure worse every time they travel within their own country, thanks to the "Transportation Safety Agency" (think the 3 Stooges at their best.)
CIA Has No "Conclusive" Proof Of Iranian N-Arms Program says Seymour Hersh, writing in the New Yorker. Well, perhaps not, but Mr. Hersh is not the right person to deliver the message. He has a long history of exaggerating and misunderstanding what his selective sources say to him. We've found that on issues about which we have some knowledge, if Mr. Hersh says it, it's usually wrong.
What is beyond doubt is that the Iranians are sure constructing the building blocks of an N-weapon program. We honestly don't worry much about the uranium centrifuge program which gets all the headlines. Our concern is with the heavy water plant - almost complete - and the plutonium production reactor being built at Arak. The latter is a long way from completion, but its there.
Iran says Arak's function is to produce radio-isotopes for civilian use. India used to say the same for its Dhurv reactor, which was widely believed to be busy producing plutonium for India's N-weapons program.
In another life, 20 years ago, your editor investigated Dhurv - rather quietly as the Indian government does not appreciate people spying on its N-program. To his surprise, your editor found Dhurv was producing - er, radio-isotopes.
So what's his point? Sorry, have to leave for work, running late.
0230 GMT November 20, 2006
Pentagon Considers Increasing, Then Cutting Iraq Force The Pentagon is reviewing its Iraq options and appears to favor one requiring a temporary boost of 20,000 troops to stabilize the situation, followed by a long-term commitment of 5-10 years to training the Iraqis. This would require keeping 60,000 troops in Iraq.
The problem here is the plan assumes a national army and police can be built in the first place. So far there is no evidence the Iraqis want to live together, though some Iraqis pay lip service to a united country.
Meanwhile, Mr. Kissinger Offers An Equally Unworkable Option Mr. Nixon's Secretary of State, head Pooh-Bah Mr. Kissinger, concludes a military victory in Iraq is no longer possible. Since this observation is much like saying the sun rises in the East, one can hardly disagree.
But then he proceeds to say diplomacy must be used to resolve the Iraq problem. Specifically, Iran and Syria must be pulled in for a solution.
First, though there is no doubt Iran and Syria are making things worse, there is no evidence they are the cause of the problem.
Second, there is no reason given why Iran and Syria, Nos.1 and 3 on the Axis-of-Evil list, should help reduce the US problem in Iraq all the better to enable the US to whack Iran and Syria.
Of course, the good Mr. Kissinger, doesn't want those two whacked. He wants to use diplomacy to solve US problems with them. This assumes the two want to be good vassals under a US global hegemony, and the reason they were named to the Axis-of-Evil in the first place is that they did not want this role. Has anything changed since both decided the US, and to a lesser extent the Europeans, are not going to tell them what is in their national interests and they would rather determine that themselves?
Palestinians Adopt Human Shield Tactic Against Israeli Air Strikes Israel has a policy of giving 30-minutes warning to occupants of houses it believes are being used for terror purposes, before destroying the houses by air strikes.
Last Saturday Palestinians used human shields to foil a planned strike, and today they are doing the same thing for another house.
Israel says it has not yet worked out its response, but if neccessary it will use ground troops to demolish target houses etc etc and the Palestinians will find themselves paying a heavy price etc etc.
Note to the bozos who think up these statements: the Palestinians are already paying a heavy price - that's what's leading them to these desperate tactics. The other week hundreds of women surrounded a mosque in which Palestinian gunmen had taken shelter and which was encircled by Israeli forces calling for the gunmen to surrender. The gunmen escaped amongst the women. So much for using ground troops against human shields and the Palestinians paying a heavy price.
Another note to Israel: why not use non-lethal weapons to break up human shields, such as rubber bullets, gas, sound, foam, etc.? Of course, these weapons are not always non-lethal, but still, casualties are a fraction of what they are when you use conventional force.
But then you all get such a kick out of roaring in with the Merkevas and the SP 155s and the Apaches to whack a bunch of loudmouth incompetents. The score was 80-1 in Israel's favor in the body count in the last invasion. But then the whole world started screaming human rights and war crimes and the score in the UN General assembly was 156-7 against Israel. Keep this up to make your point about the Palestinians paying a heavy price, and after a few more ground incursions, the Israelis will be made to pay a heavy price.
Think about this: the Palestinians have nothing to lose. You do. Take our advice.
0230 GMT November 19, 2006
UN General Assembly Votes 156-7 To Condemn Israel over its latest incursion into Gaza. Ostensibly the resolution required an even-handed condemnation of violence from both sides, but this was just pro forma. Every single European Union country voted against Israel. The assembly called for an enquiry into an incident where Israeli tank fire killed 19 civilians, mostly members of one family.
Our opposition to the Israeli treatment of the Palestinians is well known. Nonetheless, this incident is well and truly an accident and there is nothing to investigate. In war, stuff happens, and its usually very bad stuff. Either one says Israel should not be using heavy weapons against built-up areas, or one accept the accident and forget about it. If the view is no heavy weapons, those nations who want an investigation should first prove to the world that they would rather put their soldiers at risk than to use heavy weapons. India is one of the very, very countries who has the moral background to criticize Israel. We are unsure if any of the EU nations does.
Sudan Continues Darfur Offensive despite earlier reports it had agreed to allow a joint UN-African Union force. Turns out the Sudanese agreed only to a few hundred UN specialists to help the AU force, not to a mixed force.
We are told many AU troops are experiencing psychological problems because they have been sent to Darfur to prevent the civilians from being killed, but they are too few and too badly equipped to do any kind of half-way decent job. Anyone who is a soldier or familiar with the culture of soldiers will understand why this failure is causing problems.
ROK Refuses To Search DPRK Ships, France Searches Its First Ship We appreciate all the reasons why ROK does not want to participate in the sea interception program against DPRK, and as a sovereign nation it has the right to refuse. At the same time, ROK is not the only country affected by a potential DPRK N-bomb, and those that are have the right as sovereign nations to protect themselves.
France has searched a DPRK freighter that stopped at Mayotte, a French Indian Ocean territory. The authorities indicate the search was very thorough and everything was in order.
Fusion Power Update [Thanks, BBC.] The multi-national International Experimental Thermonuclear Reactor will be one step closer to reality next week when an agreement for the $6-billion facility is signed. One kilogram of lithium/deuterium gives as much energy as 10,000 tons of coal. There is very little radioactive material in a fusion reactor, so an accident resulting in containment breach will not release any significant radiation; there can be no explosion in any case.
The European JET fusion reactor has produced 16 MW, but with an energy input of 25 MW. ITER is to produce 500 MW with 50 MW input. If ITER works, we could see commercial fusion power in 40 years.
Now, with delays that could mean 50 years, and fusion proponents are accused of always promising fusion power in 50 years. The point here, folks, is that how much of this delay has been due to allegedly irresolvable technical problems and how much to lack of funding and urgency? BBC notes the world's energy market is $3-trillion a year. Seems to us that to end the use of fossil fuels it should be worth the world's time to spend at least $100-billion a year on fusion research. That should ensure we get fusion power in 40 years, perhaps sooner.
0230 GMT November 18, 2006
0230 GMT November 17, 2006
0230 GMT November 16, 2006
0230 GMT November 15, 2006
We missed updating November 14. Your editor spent 2 hours trying to learn from RCN, a Washington area communications company, why its installers had failed to turn up at his house 4 times in a row, with the loss of 12 hours of earning time for him. During the course of six calls, he was hung up on 4 times, and told once that no one could give him a phone number or address for RCN to which he could address a complaint. After much reluctance an email address was given, which address Gmail's mailer daemon promptly rejected as false. On a sixth call a supervisor gave him an address, but could not enlighten him as to why 4 appointments had been dropped.
750 Somali Fighters Went To Lebanon to fight for Hezbollah, says blogger Bill Roggio. He says Iran is getting involved in Somalia, and warns that the old assertion that Sunnis and Shias would not work together is proving wrong in the case of Iran and the ICU.
Just another front in the Global War On Terror that is going to heck and beyond, folks. Nothing to worry about. The US administration tells us it knows what it is doing in GWOT, so be happy.
In Iraq Bill Roggio tells us the US is on the offensive in Ramadi, attacking IED cells. In Baghdad, US forces are attacking al-Sadr militia regardless of what the traitor who is Iraq's prime minister wants.
Our sources say, however, these are minor raids more oriented toward getting back the allegedly kidnapped soldier, and at expressing the intense US anger at Iraq's government for stopping US efforts to disarm al-Sadr militia. Though we have to admit the efforts are pretty limp - US does not have the needed forces to go to war with al-Sadr.
Our sources add the US has also been trying to expand the tiny area of Ramadi it controls, and is getting little cooperation from Iraq. Al-Qaeda rules the roost, the US has way too few troops in the fight, but not to worry folks, the Administration says the situation on the ground will determine the US withdrawal, not politics. Right you are mate: the way things are going, pretty soon there will be no Iraq left, and then maybe the Administration will consider withdrawing the troops.
Letter from James Freemon Many of my generation, especially those who avoided serving in Vietnam by finding a less risky path, are now hawks. I’m referring to the folks who didn't actually take a stand on Vietnam. They neither opposed nor actively supported the war; they just avoided going there themselves. Many of us who actually fought that war seem to be much less enthusiastic about this one.
0230 GMT November 13, 2006
Don't Expect Much From The Baker Group because its solutions either don't make sense or are simply words without meaning.
In the nonsense department is the group's big emphasis on talking to Iran and Syria. What purpose will this serve? Why should these enemies of America cooperate in helping America make a graceful exit, so that freed of the Iraq albatross, America can turn to whacking them?
As for the phrases about more training for the Iraqis and so on, folks, all you're going to achieve is enhance the Iraqis' ability to kill each other. These are meaningless formulations: troops on the ground have said the police will require 10 year more at least to reach the level of efficiency needed - that's needed now, as things get worse the 10-year capability will be insufficient. We've discussed the mess the Army is in, particularly its refusal to serve outside the provinces where its units are recruited.
Now, if the Baker group is intending solely to provide acceptable political cover for a foreordained American withdrawal, then fine, let the group say what it needs to say. But if anyone thinks the group has any solutions, they'd be making a mistake.
Islamic Courts Takes Town On Puntland Border but has sensibly refrained from entering Puntland, a self-governing region of Somalia with its own strong militia. Aside from the likelihood it will have to engage in serious fighting, moving into Puntland will trigger an open Ethiopian intervention.
Anyway, we don't see what the ICU is unhappy about. It controls all of southern Somalia bar Baidoa and environs; there's Puntland in the middle, and a region in the northwest where the militia can't reach without controlling Puntland. Strategically it makes sense to just take Baidoa and build up its position for a showdown with Puntland in the future.
Of course, no one in the ICU has asked for our opinion, but since when has that stopped us from giving it.
South Ossetia Votes For Independence The region is part of Georgia, but wants to join Russia. Georgia says No Way Jose or whatever it is they say in Georgia.
Problem is, the west broke up Yugoslavia because X, Y, and Z said they didn't want to be part of the federation. So under the same principle, if S. Ossetia says it doesn't want to be part of Georgia, what right has the west to stop S. Ossetia from seceding and asking for Russian troops for protection? None.
This is not a confrontation with Russia the west is going to win. We suggest a graceful acceptance of the realities - and please, please, no applause, we get easily embarrassed at public acknowledgement of our genius.
Lebanon: The Next Act We noted 5 Shia ministers resigned from the Lebanese cabinet, 2 Hezbollah and 3 Amal, as part of the campaign to bring down Lebanon's pro-western government.
The next step came as Hezbollah said it would resort to peaceful mass demonstrations against the government. Peaceful our long suffering buttootie.
And even before the demonstrations begin, the pro-Syrian Lebanese president has announced the resignations make the present government illegitimate, which is legally not the case, but the man's intention is to raise the temperature and increase the pressure against the government.
Do Our Readers See A Pattern Here? In all these brewing crises, there is a sad, sad pattern, a repeat of what we saw in Iraq. The US pushes, and achieves victory in place A. It happily forgets about A, and goes on to push in place B. This allows the bad guys to make a comeback in Place A, so now you're stuck in B while A is going to heck in the proverbial handbasket.
So the US got Syrian forces out of Lebanon and sat around patting itself on the back for dealing one bloodless but lethal blow to the Syrian regime. Truth to tell, we were part of the pat-patting and were feeling pretty smug.
But then it did nothing of importance to bolster the now-liberated Lebanese regime. In hindsight its obvious what should have been done: a commitment of western troops to protect Lebanon, and a massive retraining/reequipment of the Lebanese Army, including a purge of Hezbollah elements. Instead, the west, specifically the US/France, created a vacuum and pushed off to attend to other matters.
Along came Lebanon 2006, and the vacuum is being filled by Hezbollah, mortal enemy of secular Lebanon and of Israel, handmaiden of Iran, and willing ally to Syria.
Its Not Just Iraq Needs To Be Reassessed The US needs to pause globally, including pull-backs from numerous countries while it reassesses what it is doing in the Global War Against Terror, more correctly labeled as the Crusade Against Fascist Islam.
And the US needs to understand you do not go to war in 100 countries with an Army/Marine Corps of less than 800,000 troops, including reservists on duty. In each and every country everything boils down to one simple theme, repeated endlessly: not enough troops to do the job.
Thus: not enough troops to secure Iraq, not enough troops to whack Syria, not enough troops to crush Mullah Iran, not enough troops to make DPRK cry "Uncle", not enough troops to send to Lebanon, not enough troops to send to Somalia, not enough troops to what Sudan - one of the next arenas for emergence of anti-western fundamentalists - and we could go on and on, but readers get the point.
Fancy tricks and sleights of hand to "increase" troops available without increasing the numbers, such as the Brigade Conduct Team which has failed even before transformation is complete, are just not going to work.
Either America Should Get Serious, Or It Should Get Home Period.
The Brigade Combat Team From 3 brigades per division plus a handful of independent brigades, the US is going to 4 brigades per division without increasing manpower. Voila, behold how dreadfully clever we Americans are.
Problem is, the extra brigades create extra overhead, and the new raisings are being manned by reducing maneuver battalions from 3 to 2, when the US needs the extra brigades plus more, and needs to increase each from 3 maneuver battalions to 4.
Please, please, please US Army: do not insult us by saying you've added a reconnaissance squadron (battalion) to each brigade and that the new weapon systems improve capability. Its okay for you to say this to the idiot civilians in charge of policy.
The sad truth is that when you deployed the first new organization to Iraq, you had to scramble to steal maneuver battalions from across the force to bring each brigade to 3 battalions. And no matter how you wish it, the reconnaissance squadron, a unit of around 350 troops is not a substitute for a 800+ troops battalion for one thing, and its role is to support the maneuver battalions, not be a maneuver battalion. It does not make up for the loss of a maneuver battalion, and it cannot act as a reserve under the usual 2-up/1-back scheme of deployment.
Please also don't tell us how the new heavy brigade has 8 companies in 2 battalions versus 9 in the old 3 battalions, because these figures are themselves a reduction from the 1990 era totals of 4 companies per battalion.
Play games as you want, the US needs more troops for the new war. A brigade needs a robust reconnaissance squadron, 4 maneuver battalions of 4 companies each, and at least 1 MP company for the new environment. And we need a whacking huge increase in brigades, comrades.
0230 GMT November 12, 2006
German Prosecutor Preparing Case Against Rumsfeld for his role in prison torture at Abu Gharib and Gitmo, says Time.com. We suggest you read the article to get a rather neat summary of the issues http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1557842,00.html?cnn=yes
Basically, German law permits prosecution of anyone in the world on human rights measures. Along with Mr. Rumsfeld a large number of civil and military officials who authorized the rough treatment of prisoners at both prisons are being named.
We had several reactions to this news. First, anger. Who the heck are the Germans to teach the Americans anything about morality of any sort?
Second, the wry admission what goes around, comes around. The US has used human rights abuses as a big stick to whack any number of governments it doesn't like. At least since Mr. Ronald Reagan's time foreigners have complained that US human rights policy is purely political and has no moral principles. Sad to say, one cannot disagree with that. If you are a US ally, abuse away. If you are a US adversary, woe to you if you as much as deprive a prisoner of his hot cocoa, soft blankie, and bunny slippers. It was just a matter of time before someone used the doctrine the US developed to put US officials in the crosshairs. The US administration knew what it was doing when it developed the controversial prisoner handling policies, now the piper must be paid.
Our third reaction was extreme anger: the star witness is going to be the very same brigadier general who commanded the MP brigade under whose jurisdiction Abu Gharib fell, and who was reprimanded for lax discipline amongst her subordinates and failure to supervise her command. She was a National Guard officer, and when she was reprimanded, she made it very clear she was not going to forget. One of her more outrageous statements was that she was being discriminated against because she was a woman.
Yes folks, if Time.com is to be believed, a United States military officer is going to travel to Germany to give testimony against her superiors. Since at no time did she display any remorse for actions taken by her subordinates, we may safely assume it is not a sudden concern for human rights that moves her, but a desire for revenge. This is treason and this officer should be treated accordingly.
Americans Are Very Big On Morality and there are days we think that is just fine. This is a nation founded on moral principles. More often than not it has tried to live by those principles. For example, no one defeated the US and then abolished slavery. Americans themselves rose up against it. Similarly, it was Americans who decided that their fellow citizens were being denied their civil rights and them remedied the situation. It is Americans who said the right to come to the country was the right of any qualified person, regardless of his skin color. It is Americans who helped bring democracy to much of the world. It is Americans who first gave rights to the disabled - yes, we know some countries had given some disabled rights before America did, but for the wholesale recognition that the disabled are human beings of worth as much as an abled person, you have to thank America. and so on.
At the same time, Americans have to realize that their air of moral superiority - nay, supremacy - is a prime reason so much of the world hates America. No one likes it if you wave a size 16 fist under his nose and tell him "do what I say, or I bop you one straight in the kisser" or whatever it is tough guys used to say. But what makes it really, really impossible to take, is when Americans say "I am going to pound you into the ground not because it is to my crude advantage to do so, but because I am morally superior to you". Folks, that enrages people beyond belief.
Hezbollah Makes another Move To Pull Down The Lebanese Government We know you are not surprised this was going to happen, once the west got its foot on Lebanon and began telling the Lebanese government it had to defang Hezbollah. If its going to be a fight between western backed Lebanon and Islamic Lebanon, no sensible person is going to bet against Hezbollah after Lebanon 2006.
BBC says 5 Shia ministers - 2 Hezb and 3 Amal Militia - in the government have resigned. Hezb and Amal wanted more seats in the government, arguing Lebanon's political landscape has changed. This would have given them veto power. The Lebanese PM said no. The resignations do not mean the Lebanese government will fall, but governing will become much harder.
Doubtless there is more to come.
Israeli PM En Route To US leaving us a bit confused. Just the other day Israeli papers were telling us Washington had told the PM he was not welcome at this time.
0230 GMT November 11, 2006
Falluja As - Er - Iwo Jima? So says the President, dedicating the Marine Corps memorial at Quantico, VA, as in people will remember Fallujah as they remember Iwo Jima.
Well, the Marines lost 6800 KIA on Iwo Jima; or 650 men per square mile. They lost 58 KIA at Fallujah. seems to us the Pres needs a better speechwriter.
Fallujah will certainly go down in the history books - the ones read by professional soldiers, not by the public. By all accounts, going by the experience of the Russians in Grozny, Chechnya, Iraqi insurgents at Fallujah should have inflicted vastly more casualties then they did. The city was fortified and booby-trapped almost down to the last street, building, and door and the attacker outnumbered the defender only by 2-1 - bad odds for an urban battle. Yet the US blasted Fallujah apart with minimal losses, and may have killed up to 80 insurgents for every US marine/soldier. How the US did this is certainly worthy of much study.
Meanwhile, The Society Of Spavined Asses Speaks That would be Al-Qaeda in Iraq, and it wants America to stay in Iraq so it can kill more Americans. Moreover, it will not rest till it blows up the White House.
We don't note any particular enthusiasm on AQ's part anymore to fight Americans, tales about Juba the Sniper notwithstanding. AQ might do well to remember that a lot of Americans say their country should not leave Iraq, all the better to kill AQ.
As for not resting till the White House is blown up, we guess AQ will never be able to rest.
Tales Of Juba The Sniper The blogs are swarming with stories about this gentleman, who is said to have killed 19 American soldiers - at least. It is said he always fires just a single, deadly shot, and is so skillful that - can it be believed, this is amazing - that he kills from 200-meters, even 300-meters.
In the real world of snipers, those ranges are the equivalent of kindergarten skills; moreover, Juba seriously violates the master sniper credo of one shot, one kill: he has a number of woundings to his credit.
No one seems to know if Juba exists, if he is one person or many, his country of origin - one improbable legend makes him an Israeli working for Mossad. what is known, if you think about it, sniping at American soldiers is hardly a difficult feat. In Baghdad, for example, where Juba is said to be, there are at least 12,000 combat soldiers, and you basically don't even have to hide on the rooftop while waiting for some to show up. You can party away until Americans are sighted.
The comparable situation would be if US snipers decided to kill any armed Iraqi they saw; the result would be a partridge shoot every day.
We found the stories about Juba interesting for a different reason. Many, if not most, of the various blog postings are by westerners, and the degree of vitriol directed at the US and the extent of the celebration at Juba's kills is quite extraordinary.
0230 GMT November 10, 2006
Democrats Take Control Of Senate 49-49-2 with both independents saying they will generally vote with the Democrats, making it 51-49. The Republican defeat is now complete, and President Bush becomes a lame duck with two years to go.
Perhaps there will be bi-partisanship: after all, America has clearly said that's what it wants. But people on the extreme right are already saying that there should be no compromise with Democrats: they see the defeat as caused by a drift from real conservative principles. As for the extreme left, it is seldom far from the surface in the Democratic party. If it too decides that compromising with the Republicans will lead to an erosion of its base, the Democratic party will be equally averse to compromise.
In which case, its back to gridlock. America is nowhere near the stage where people feel they need to sack Congress and elongate Congressional necks from lampposts, but frustration with Congress is very high. It will not be good for the future of America if Congress cannot arrive at workable solutions for critical problems like Iraq, immigration, the future of social security, universal health care, and the growing American underclass.
Israeli Air Force Continues Acting The Village Idiot On October 31 IsAF F-15s buzzed French UNIFIL positions, says Jerusalem Post. The French defense minister says the aircraft were clearly in attack position and her troops were within seconds of open fire with a SAM. This incident comes after the incident with the German frigate.
The Israelis have again provided an explanation so lame it would not win a race with a dead snail. If only UNIFIL was doing its job and stopping arms smuggling, Israel would not have to overfly Lebanon, say the Israelis.
Our information, however, is that these incidents have nothing to do with arms smuggling. They have everything to do with Israel wanting to establish it is top dog and it rules the roost or whatever. There is no practical purpose being served - unless one considers feeding the IsAF's ego a practical purpose.
What the Israelis don't understand is the Europeans do not consider Israel a top dog or top anything. They consider it an arrogant and possibly rapid puppy. It was Israel's idea to get the Europeans into UNIFIL to save themselves in Lebanon, and now they have to pay the price.
Here is what Orbat.com wants the Israelis to do: say "No one loves a loser. After Lebanon 2006, we are losers." Keep repeating until understood.
You all have been bluntly told by Washington that your Prime Minister's visit does not come at a propitious time. The Republican defeat means President Bush has to accept and begin implementing the bi-partisan Baker panel report on Iraq and the Middle East. It is no secret the Baker report paints Israel as a prime cause of problems for the US in the Middle East, however tactful its words.
Now, since when could Washington unilaterally force postponement of an Israeli PM's visit? Since the Lebanon debacle. If Israel had won, if it had whacked Hezbollah and given the Syrians a beating, who would be the good dog as far as Washington is concerned? Israel.
But Israel lost and gave America's enemies hope. From saying "Hey guys, we busted America's closest ally" to saying "Hey guys, that means we can bust America" is a very, very short step. And many enemies of America are taking that step.
So who is the bad dog now? Are you starting to get it, Israel?
0230 GMT November 9, 2006
Mr. Bush, New House Majority Leader Exchange Air Kisses Mr. Bush allows as to how he can work with the Democrats, who now control the House, in a spirit of cooperation etc. The new majority leader reciprocates with equally meaningless fluff.
Question for Mr. Bush: if you can now work with the Democrats, why couldn't you work with them after 9/11? Instead you polarized the country and caused the defeat of your own party. Its so sweet you are taking responsibility for the defeat. You had no stake in the outcome as your job is safe, and you fiddled while Rome burned. If you really want to take responsibility, start by making a ritual sacrifice of your Vice President, who bamboozled you into following one failed policy after another, at home and abroad.
Goodbye, Mr. Rumsfeld And good riddance. We don't need super-geniuses to run the government, they are a dime a dozen. We need competent pragmatists.
The World Welcomes The Democratic Victory and frankly this makes us want to throw up. The world welcomes because it sees the US as less likely to act the cowboy, to paraphrase National Public Radio.
The real reason the world welcomes is that it is convinced the Democrats will be eunuchs it can push around and who can be relied on to take the softest options and thus not to disturb the world's comfort level.
Two generations ago, counting 30 years as a generation, America thought it better to be Dead than Red. The rest of the world, however, and particularly the democratic world that America was protecting, preferred Red over Dead. When all that stood between the world's democracies and the Red hordes of the Soviet Union and China was the US, the world non-stop vilified the US for being the danger. In other words, if the US would simply roll over with its paws in the air and let anyone and everyone kick it, the world would be a safer place.
Your editor has very seldom heard any non-American ever say, even in quiet private conversation, that s/he was grateful for what the US did 1945-1990.
When the new Hundred Years War officially began on 9/11, we saw the start of a new generation of Better Red Than Dead people start crawling out of the sewers like cockroaches. After March 2003 the degree of hatred for the US reached heights never remotely approached in the heydey of the Cold War. That they now feel safer shows the BRTD lot believe they have triumphed.
The worst of it all is that this administration had everything going for it in the new war - everything except, it is now apparent, basic smarts. This administration has thrown away all its advantages given it by the domestic electorate by messing up, messing up, and messing up.
Losing because we have been defeated on the battlefield is galling. But losing because we shot ourselves between the eyes is near unbearable.
How does Orbat.com plan to bear it? Well, we have every confidence in the West's enemies. They are determined, willing to sacrifice everything, ruthless, and cunning. They are going to push the world and push the world and push the world until the world will not be able to take it any more.
The world will then rise and fight. But the cost of victory will be 100 times greater than if the world had followed the US lead - and if the administration had had the skill to keep the world united behind its policies.
The historical analogy is all too clear. In the period 1917 to about 1923-4 the western democracies found it impossible to pay the price for destroying communism in its cradle. The price they paid is well known. In 1936, even in 1938, the west was not willing to oppose Hitler by force. The price it paid is well known.
The west won both the great wars of the 20th Century, the war against fascism and the war against communism. It will also win the new crusade. But it will nonetheless come to regret the cost because right now it is choosing to appease Islamic fundamentalism instead of fighting.
We are not saying that had Mr. Bush truly been a uniter rather than a divider the world would tamely have followed him post March 2003. But by his constant barrage of ever escalating mistakes, Mr. Bush created a situation where even the staunchest US allies are breathing a sigh of relief at the Republican - read Mr. Bush - defeat.
There is a word for the disease that has laid the administration low. Hubris.
0230 GMT November 8, 2006
We delayed today's update for US election results
Democrats Score Decisive House Victory; Senate Undecided Democrats now have 227 seats to the Republicans' 194 according to CNN.
Republicans lost at least 4 Senate seats; Democrats lead by tiny majorities in the 2 remaining races, Montana and Virginia. There will be a recount in Virginia if the incumbent loses as state law permits one when elections are this close - the challenger is ahead only by 6000 votes. In Montana with 91% precincts counted as of 1230 GMT the incumbent trails by 1750 votes; we are not familiar with Montana law on possible recounts.
Contrary to usual voting patterns, 67% of voters said national/international issues were of greater importance to them than local matters.
The election can thus be seen as a referendum on Iraq and Congressional corruption; as such President Bush's Iraq policy can be considered as overwhelmingly rejected by his electorate.
Our prediction is the Democrats have taken the burden of Mr. Bush's failed foreign policies off his shoulders. Now they will have to come up with solutions.
To us the solution is simple: declare victory and leave. Saddam is gone, Iraq is a democracy, mission is accomplished, sayonara and all that.
The American people don't see it as simply, and the Democrats are not going to cut and run. We predict the situation in Iraq for America will simply continue to get worse and at some point the American people will have had enough.
Till then, the rest of US foreign policy will continue to stumble along with Iraq a millstone around its neck. It will have the rare success and frequent failures. In the majority of crises/issues, however, there will be no resolution because while America has weakened to the point it cannot force success, it is still too powerful to be pushed into failure.
We wish America the best, and plan to get back to our real business, orders of battle.
Russia Guts Iran Sanctions Proposals by saying it will not agree to an assets freeze or travel ban, that sanctions must be specific to the Iran N-weapons program and not across the board, and that nations should be free to decide what sanctions they will apply. The US can now stop pretending that Russia will override its national interests to support US global hegemony, and we hope PRC's refusal to go along with US sanctions proposals against DPRK has shown the US that PRC is not a friend, but an adversary with its own interests.
This should be known to any 1st year student of international affairs.
The above does not mean we advocate unilateral action by the US. Multilateral action is preferable by far - if we can get it.
The bummer is that now multilateralism has failed - in Iraq, Sudan, the Mideast, Iran, and DPRK to name the major concerns - the US finds itself with exactly zero options for unilateral action.
The double bummer is the US has put itself in this position of its own choice, in preference to building up its military power so that if multilateralism fails, unilateralism can be implemented.
0230 GMT November 7, 2006
What We Hear About Iraq Policy Changes View 1: President Bush had to "stay the course" to satisfy his political base. With the elections done he is going to drastically reduce US forces. If he does not, the Democrats will force reductions by cutting off funds.
View 2: The Democrats have very little room for maneuver on Iraq. That 2/3rds of the country is unhappy about Iraq does not mean 2/3rds of the country supports a hasty withdrawal. The gripe most people have is that the strategy is not working, but we have to stay in because leaving will be far worse. So things will continue as before, at least for another two years.
Readers can take their choice of views.
Islamic Courts Says Its Forces Attacked South Of Puntland This is an autonomous region of Somalia, and the home base of the interim president. He has ruled reasonably well, and Puntland is at peace, largely free of the warlord scourge. It has resisted encroachment by Islamic militants: they have been defeated in previous years with the help of Ethiopian troops.
The ICU says its militia was attacked 60-kn south of Puntland by Ethiopia-backed Puntland militias and fighting has been fierce.
Puntland says its force are not involved in any fighting.
IDF Continues Gaza Operation killing 5 militants and suffering one lightly wounded soldier who was near a woman suicide bomber when she blew herself up. 52 Palestinians have died in the operation, the IDF says 90% are militants. About twice as many are wounded.
Meanwhile the Hamas chief calls for kidnapping more Israeli soldiers to trade for Palestine prisoners. Given the immense competence of Hamas in resisting this latest IDF incursion, we are sure the Israelis are quivering in their boots. We suggest the Hamas chief take up writing poetry: he will surely scare more Israelis than he is now.
Daniel Ortega Is Back As Nicaragua's President Our advice to the US is to ignore him. Its not worth anyone's time bothering with this old, windy, corrupt, apparatchik any more than its worth worrying about Hugo Chavez. Opposing these men is to give them power. Ignoring them is to weaken them.
How To Handle IEDs In Iraq: Letter From Walter Wallis My solution to IEDs is multi-pronged.
0230 GMT November 6, 2006
Israeli Offensive In Gaza Continues The Israelis have had a field day warning about all the advanced weapons the Palestinians are getting from hither, thither, and you. What is remarkable about the current offensive is the same old, same old. The Palestinians are getting slaughtered as usual - 40 at last count excluding civilians - for the loss of a single Israeli soldier. There is not one sign of any advanced weapon.
It is exceedingly tiresome from a purely professional viewpoint to see the Palestinians so completely unable to defend themselves. They have the ideal terrain for defense, heavily populated, heavily urbanized terrain. This is sniper heaven, and there are endless opportunities to ambush Israeli AFVs and infantry patrols. What we see instead is a lot of loud boasting, yelling and screaming by the Palestinian gunmen, with near zero effectiveness.
People who fight so badly need to give up fighting and take up peaceful resistance or something else. For the last six years, since the Palestine uprising began, all that the Palestinians have done is cost the Israelis a few hundred million a year - which the US more than makes up in its military aid - and a handful of soldiers/civilians. The 5000+ Palestinians that have been killed are, in the larger scheme of things, a minor loss. The population grows by 150,000 males a year. But the uprising and the failure to impose a real cost on the Israelis has led to the devastation of the Palestine state. Unemployment is 60%, and even those who have jobs barely survive.
Our advice to Palestine gunmen: Give it up, boys, for the sake of the people for whom you say you are fighting. Try basket weaving. You may be more successful. But guerilla warriors you are not.
Saddam Gets Death Sentence for ordering the executions of about 150 men and boys from a village where his convoy was ambushed.
Inevitably, we have the outcry from westerners about how this was not a fair trial. Fair not how? Because it wasn't conducted in the manner of a western trial?
But all complaints are completely irrelevant because the facts are not in dispute: Saddam has said he was entitled to do what he did because there was a war on with Iran and he had to take every measure, as head of state, to put down insurrection/activity on behalf of Iran.
Like It Or Not, Saddam Has A Point He was dictator of Iraq. An attempt was made to kill him. He reacted as he saw fit. It is those who say he committed a crime to begin with that are imposing western notions of justice.
You editor happens to like western notions of justice, and he happens to think that those directly guilty of the murder attempt should have been punished, not just every man and boy the authorities happened to round up.
But he does not delude himself into believing that in some larger sense the justice imposed on Saddam is "fair". It is not fair. But it is the justice of the victor and that is the reality of life. The Allies happily put German and Japanese leaders on trial for war crimes and hanged them. Was anyone on the allied side hanged for the bombing of Germany and Japan? Were any Soviet leaders hanged for the slaughter of hundreds of thousands, possibly millions, of their citizens that they held responsible for collaboration with the enemy? Obviously not, and we don't expect otherwise.
Should Saddam Have Been Tried By An International Court? What right does the west have to usurp the authority of the Iraqi people? Is Iraq a colony of the west that Iraq cannot try him? Iraq has a democratically elected government. The judicial system did its best under conditions no western court would be able to function. The facts are not in dispute. So darn what the technicalities of the trial do not conform to western practice.
There has been an egregious mistake made by westerners - specifically the Americans. They captured Saddam, kept him safe, and forced the Iraqi government to stage a trial, all at the cost of hundreds of million of dollars, to satisfy their notion of justice. In so doing, they gave the Sunni insurgents a rallying point, and of thousands of people have been killed as a result. Are the western critics of the Saddam court taking responsibility for those victims?
When the dictator of Rumania and his wife were caught, sentenced, and executed with a complete, utter, total flouting of judicial procedure, we don't seem to recall western critics saying much, if anything. Everyone breathed a huge sigh of relief that one more bad guy had gotten his.
It really would have been better if Saddam had been handled in the same way.
US To Mobilize 2 National Guard Brigades Ahead Of Time to provide an extra 7,000 troops next year. Not only will this mean additional dislocation for citizen-soldiers who should not have been mobilized again before 4 years, but the Guard is now seriously under-equipped because equipment losses and wear-downs have not been adequately replaced. The Guard is having to cobble together units from across the force, violating the unit integrity that is critical to the Guard's effectiveness. Additionally, it is stealing equipment from other brigades and effectively destroying the readiness of the force.
That the US is scrambling to find additional troops and imposing an unfair burden on those who volunteered for the regular and reserve forces 5 years after the war on terror began is highly aggravating. Once again the military is being made to pay for the mistakes of the civilian Pentagon leaders and specifically Mr. Rumsfeld whom Mr. Bush has invited to stay as long as he wants.
If even as late as mid-2004 decisions had been made to mobilize the 7th and 24th Divisions plus federalize two National Guard divisions - actions that would have required the recruitment of at least 100,000 new soldiers to replace the the Guardsmen and reservists released after 24 months service - the US would have had an extra 12 brigades.
Even if the US were to withdraw tomorrow all except 4-5 brigades from Iraq, a course we advocate, additional troops are required. It is farcical to think a global war that will last decades can be fought with 13 army/marine divisions plus a few Guard brigades. Outside of Iraq, this failure of US policy is being felt most acutely in Afghanistan.
0230 GMT November 5, 2006
Saddam Gets Death Sentence for ordering the executions of about 150 men and boys from a village where his convoy was ambushed.
Inevitably, we have the outcry from westerners about how this was not a fair trial. Fair not how? Because it wasn't conducted in the manner of a western trial?
But all complaints are completely irrelevant because the facts are not in dispute: Saddam has said he was entitled to do what he did because there was a war on with Iran and he had to take every measure, as head of state, to put down insurrection/activity on behalf of Iran.
Like It Or Not, Saddam Has A Point He was dictator of Iraq. An attempt was made to kill him. He reacted as he saw fit. It is those who say he committed a crime to begin with that are imposing western notions of justice.
You editor happens to like western notions of justice, and he happens to think that those directly guilty of the murder attempt should have been punished, not just every man and boy the authorities happened to round up.
But he does not delude himself into believing that in some larger sense the justice imposed on Saddam is "fair". It is not fair. But it is the justice of the victor and that is the reality of life. The Allies happily put German and Japanese leaders on trial for war crimes and hanged them. Was anyone on the allied side hanged for the bombing of Germany and Japan? Were any Soviet leaders hanged for the slaughter of hundreds of thousands, possibly millions, of their citizens that they held responsible for collaboration with the enemy? Obviously not, and we don't expect otherwise.
Should Saddam Have Been Tried By An International Court? What right does the west have to usurp the authority of the Iraqi people? Is Iraq a colony of the west that Iraq cannot try him? Iraq has a democratically elected government. The judicial system did its best under conditions no western court would be able to function. The facts are not in dispute. So darn what the technicalities of the trial do not conform to western practice.
There has been an egregious mistake made by westerners - specifically the Americans. They captured Saddam, kept him safe, and forced the Iraqi government to stage a trial, all at the cost of hundreds of million of dollars, to satisfy their notion of justice. In so doing, they gave the Sunni insurgents a rallying point, and of thousands of people have been killed as a result. Are the western critics of the Saddam court taking responsibility for those victims?
When the dictator of Rumania and his wife were caught, sentenced, and executed with a complete, utter, total flouting of judicial procedure, we don't seem to recall western critics saying much, if anything. Everyone breathed a huge sigh of relief that one more bad guy had gotten his.
It really would have been better if Saddam had been handled in the same way.
0230 GMT November 4, 2006
Increases in Iraq Army Approved Earlier, 12,000 extra slots had been sanctioned to bring units to a nominal 110% strength. This was supposed to make up for unavailability of troops in units on account of men on leave, desertions and so on.
Now a further 20,000 slots have been sanctioned, for 3 new "command headquarters" - we presume this means divisions, and five brigades. The object is to build up a strategic reserve that will serve anywhere in Iraq.
Situation Normal All Fouled Up We'd love to know who does the planning and approvals for Iraq Army strengths because once again, the sanctioned increases are completely, pathetically, behind the curve. The above was needed a year ago and was probably inadequate then; given the enormous deterioration in the security situation, it is like giving a drowning man a straw to help keep him afloat.
Take the figure of 110% of unit strength. Given the conditions, Iraqi units need 143% of sanctioned strength to field close to 100% of their TO. Take the figure of 5 extra brigades. Its impossible to look at that and keep a straight face. Folks, the extra troops needed to secure Baghdad alone well exceed five brigades.
And of course, by the time this uselessly small increment is functional, the situation will be even worse. And further, of course, the entire Iraq Army bar a few battalions of the 112 total is near useless in terms of operational efficiency, and that is not going to change.
The Irony Of It All is that a primary, if unstated, reason for taking down Saddam and his army was to eliminate the biggest regional threat in existence. It is not just Israel that was threatened by Saddam's army, it was Jordan and Egypt too - and let's not forget Iran.
That is why the US planners, who live in cuckoo-land, decided Iraq needed an army of no more than 40,000 men and 3 divisions. By the way, that was just another reason to disband the Iraqi Army: US did not want 3-400,000 Iraqi troops. It is also the reason after the disbanding, when it became clear Iraq was getting into very serious trouble, the US refused to recall the old army - and to let the Iraqis enforce the draft, which was essential to build it back to strength.
Now the Iraqi Army has 10 divisions, and is to raise 3 more. Since that is not going to be enough, its easy to foresee an army of 20+ divisions will be needed. If you're seeing where this is going, worse is likely to come.
This is because the threat to the region was not from Saddam: it was from Iraqi nationalism as epitomized by Saddam. Does anyone in the Pentagon/CIA/State honestly believe that once Iraq pulls its act together - assuming it does - that the nationalism has simply and conveniently disappeared? Does anyone seriously believe if and when Iraq gets its oil exports to 6 million barrels a day and is pulling in $10-billion of foreign exchange a month that it will lack resources to once again build the strongest army in the region?
So in effect what the US would have done is to knock out the Iraqi Army, and lay the framework for another, much more dangerous army because Iraq will have that much more money available.
The Solution Is Simple You want to permanently defang Iraq, you have to split Iraq. Which is going to happen anyway. The British built their empire not by seeking to impose their vision on their subject peoples. They had a few core interests which they adhered to with utter clarity. For the rest, they exploited the strengths and weaknesses of their conquered lands to maintain their hold and, if we may put it in these terms, to get a net profit from their imperialism. The US must define its core interests and they must be kept within its means.
The US has fantastic manpower and material resources. It could field a draft-based military of 6 million on 7-8% of GNP, and it could impose its will on the world, particularly because it would back numbers with the highest available technology. We wouldn't be having this debate about Iraq if the US had that kind of military; it would have crushed Iraq, Iran, Syria, DPRK, Cuba, whoever/whatever, in short order.
So obviously, when we say "means", we refer to political means. Politically, there is not the slightest chance the US could build that kind of military force. The US has gone soft - luckily so has the rest of the world, and truthfully, relative to everyone else the US is still tougher than anyone else. But relative to everyone else does not cut it if you want to impose your will on the world for the simple reason there's 300-million of you and 5.7-billion of them.
Mr. Rumsfeld's Seductive Thesis Was We'll Use Technology in place of manpower. He thought a 10-division army was - get this - too large. Well folks, the technology hasn't kept pace with the rundown in numbers and percentage of GNP spent on defense.
We noted the F-22 Raptor has a 108-0 kill ratio in exercises. That is technology with a great big "Wow!". But what's needed in Iraq is not the Raptor. Its a variety of relatively simple technologies, the predominant one being anti-IED. This is a country that in World War II was building 10,000-ton merchant ships - sizeable for the day - in 240 hours from start to finish. It went from zero to Hiroshima in less than 3 years. It didn't have an ICBM that could fly when it decided to put a man on the moon in 10 years, and it did so in 8.
But it cannot counter IEDs. And when you cannot counter IEDs, you either get the heck out of Iraq, or you do what the Indians did in Kashmir. And incidentally, even if you could counter IEDs, CI has to be done the slow, dirty, way: on foot, and then other dangers must be faced.
How the Indian Army Did It At the crack of dawn each day tens of thousands of troops would turn out and start sweeping the key roads - by hand, on foot. You wonder why the Indians needed 200,000 troops including paramilitary beyond the 300,000 normally stationed in the region to defeat an insurgent force that probably never exceeded 5,000 men? That's One reason why. The Indians didn't have the technology, so they did it the old fashioned way, the hard way. Every street in the insurgency hit towns and cities had roadblocks manned 24-hours a day. The Indians didn't clear up an area and then push off somewhere else to let the insurgents come back.
They went year after year for 13 years, slogging on and on, taking casualties in every firefight because they did not want to use firepower and kill more innocent people. There were nights the Indian Army would lay on 1000 anti-infiltrator patrols night after night, and during the day tens of thousands of men would beat the high grass, search the valleys, walk through the villages. It was incredibly grueling, incredibly thankless work. There were no 7-month tours and 12-month tours. The standard tour for an infantry battalion was 3-years, and Kashmir was only one operational theatre. There were units that were spending 6, 9, even 12 years either on CI or in the high mountains, or in the deserts, during that time.
And no one had the slightest doubt the Indian Army would have carried on for as many years as was neccessary - it took the Army 40 years to break the northeastern, China backed insurgencies. A 13 year campaign for the Indian Army is a mere detail.
I ask Americans: are they prepared to endure that, lose 1000 soldiers a year for 40 years, or perhaps even 50, or even 60?
If the answer is yes, you have my blessings: carry on, you fight a worthy fight and your name will live for generations.
If the answer is no, kindly get out of Iraq and end this farce. There are other battles to be fought, it is no longer clear Iraq is even the most important one.
0230 GMT November 3, 2006
Iraq Army Story We seem to have confused ourselves about the source of the Iraq Army story we commented on yesterday. It is not from a leaked report, but from an analysis published in a military journal.
First, apologies.
Second, we are told the military journal article does not depict the situation as it exists today. In some part that is because the author does not wish to unnecessarily criticize the Iraqis. In the main, however, its because the article was written before the sectarian virus infected the Iraq army in full strength. To the Iraq Army's sins of commission and omission, detailed in a fair manner by the author, must be added the unpleasant reality that the army is dividing itself on ethnic lines.
We are also told that the bulk of the army will not fight if it is required to disarm the Shia militias because Shia will not fight Shia. This does not mean that no Shia army unit will open fire on Shia militia: there can be all sorts of local disputes and the Shias themselves owe allegiance to different factions. It does mean that there is no question of the government telling the army "disarm the militias" and the army complying.
We respect the person giving us this background, but frankly, we were unconcerned. The thing is the government is not going to give the army an order to disarm the Shia militias because the government works with the militias. Moreover, the militias are likely to become more and more important in keeping the army in check.
For yet another perspective on the Iraq Army which will lead you to further lose confidence in this institution, read http://www.military.com/features/0,15240,118189,00.html This reinforces a long known phenomenon: this may be a national army in name, but there are just a handful of units that will accept combat anywhere in Iraq.
The writing was on the wall as far back as 2004 in Fallujah, when the few Iraq battalions sent there saw mass desertions
We do need to state we are not trying to slang anyone. We are simply pointing out realities. We absolutely had no clue that the situation regarding the Iraq Army would develop as it has. We knew it as a reasonably effective, nationalist organization in Saddam's time, and assumed the new Iraq army would be the same.
We are no fans of Mr. Rumsfeld and the rest of lamebrained crocks that have run US policy in Iraq, but we have to be fair: even if the Iraq army had not been disbanded, it is likely by now it would have split on sectarian lines, and with the fear of Saddam gone, it would have degenerated into what it is today. The state of the Iraqi Army today cannot, we feel, be laid at Mr. Rumsfeld's door.
Nonetheless, without an effective national Iraq army there is absolutely no chance the US mission as defined as present can succeed. It is not a question of more time is required, more trainers, building up logistics, etc etc as we are being told. US can stay in Iraq till the cows come home and are sent to the glue factory, you will not have the Iraq army you need to support US objectives.
And since there is no question - politically - of sending 500,000 US troops to stay indefinitely in Iraq to rebuild the country from the ground up, it becomes impossible to avoid the obvious conclusion: either we redefine objectives in Iraq to take into account there is no unifying national army to rely on, now or later, or we get out.
Your editor's preference is to get out because there are so many other things to be done, and he is absolutely not convinced "winning" in Iraq - whatever that means and however it is defined - is the most desirable objective in US global security policy.
0230 GMT November 2, 2006
Israel Opens Gaza Offensive in an effort to stop rockets attacks on its territory. IDF says 10 gunmen were killed; Palestinians say 5 were killed plus civilians. Israel lost one soldier. Jerusalem Post says in line with lessons learned in Lebanon 2006, Israeli units are operating on foot to avoid expected anti-tank missiles aimed at their usual armored columns.
Meanwhile, and Egyptian source says Gaza will soon become a Hezbollah state. In an effort to boost Palestine moderates, Israel is supply 5000 rifles to President Muhamad Abbas's presidential guard unit; earlier this year Jordan gave rifles to the Palestine police at Israel's request.
In our humble opinion, with the inflow of foreign fighters into Gaza post Lebanon, the moderates don't have a chance.
Iraq Army Unreliable and Incapable Says Leaked US Report Another report emerges as part of the US military's "we're fed up with the civilian leadership and won't take it any more" retaliation against the stupidities of the Rumsfeld Pentagon. This one says the Iraq Army cannot fight and cannot be relied on. It has no discipline, up to 40% of unit members desert before combat operations, and are not punished, and each time the men are paid the army in effect stands down because they take immediate leave of several days to travel back home to deliver the money to their families. Few of the men are in the army for other than the cash or - in many cases - to pick up military training before deserting back to their militias.
Well, we can't say we're particularly surprised. In Iraq the primary loyalty has always been to the tribe and extended family not to the nation: this is the main reason anything to do with government in Iraq is in such bad shape. In Saddam's time a hard core of tough Sunni officers kept the Army fairly functional through fear and coercion. The Republican Guard's 8 divisions were the only ones approaching any competency, the rest of the army was cannon fodder.
If you are willing to sacrifice lives without a thought, you can get overall effectiveness with as little as 5% of an army truly committed to its mission. We've seen this with the famous Red Army, whose fighting qualities in World War II are beyond any dispute. You simply have to convince the men that if they retreat, they will be killed, whereas if they advance, they may survive. This is supremely elegant logic that even a moron of IQ 60 can understand. The Egyptian and Syrian armies have never been run by commanders/leaders as ruthless as Saddam's lot, which is why they disintegrated repeatedly till 1973 - and would have disintegrated even then had Israel been in any shape to continue the war, which it was not. Saddam kept his army in action against Iran for 8 brutal years and it did not disintegrate.
Quite seriously, the way out of Iraq may lie in making Saddam the president again. He'll fix everyone but good. Al-Sadr, incidentally, is not a good candidate because he lacks Saddam's grand conception and wholesale cunning - al-Sadr is just a gangster.
USAF Prepares To Deactivate F-117 Units The stealth fighter became a legend in its own lifetime, but - as the USAF points out - it has been operational for 25 years now and stealth technology has made substantial advances.
The F-22 Raptor will replace the F-117. The F-22 is better known as an air superiority fighter, but it has a secondary strike role with 2 x 1000-lb guided bombs, the same payload as the F-117.
The Raptor equips the 1st Fighter Wing (Langley, VA) and deliveries to the first Pacific unit, 90 Tactical Fighter Squadron (Alaska) have begun.
Because of economic constraints, only 2-3 wings will be procured - the unit cost is $130+ million and the system cost runs to a staggering $2-billion per aircraft for a 183 unit program.
In exercises, the F-22 has scored 33-0 against the F-15C, and 108-0 against forces flying F-15/16/18s. The problem for the opponent, of course, is that he cannot see the F-22, and this is the reason for the astonishing kill ratios.
Incidentally, the F-22 has a higher wing loading than the Rafale and Typhoon - the latter is claimed to equal F-22 in performance; but the European fighters achieve their lower wing loadings on restricted fuel. F-22 can reach Mach 1.5 without afterburner, and has a known top speed of Mach 2.6. A British military study ranked the F-22 10:1 against the Su-35, which was used as a baseline, Typhoon at 4.5:1, Rafale at 1:1, F-15C at 0.8:1, and F-16 at 0.3:1.
Presumably we can look forward to the day when the US will have a total force of two fighters, one for the Atlantic and one for the Pacific. Each plane will cost $5 trillion dollars, and be able to shoot down all the fighters in all the world's air forces combined just by itself.
More seriously, F-22 may well be the last conventional US manned air superiority fighter built. It is planned for service to 2045; long before that date we suspect that large numbers of cheap, networked unmanned fighters will be controlling the skies. Manned fighters, if still around, may well be used for combat in near-earth space.
0230 GMT November 1, 2006
Pakistan Tribals Say Helicopters Appeared After Strike against the madrassa where 80 people were killed. They say first there was a flare, then two explosions, and 3 Pakistan Army helicopters arrived 15 minutes later to fire a few rockets into the mountainside. Locals insist drones were involved.
The problem is the very high dead to wounded ratio: 80 killed but only 3 injured. Two drones firing 4 Hellfires would not cause this sort of damage, which is more consistent with 2000-pound bombs.
At the same time, the big bombs are usually satellite guided. For a Hellfire strike, yes, flares would be required.
There are no further useful details about the attack. Jang of Pakistan gives the government position verbatim, Frontier Post site is down, and Dawn of Karachi has a minimal report. Part of the problem is reporters are not welcome in the region to begin with, and after the strike the Pakistan government would make sure reporters did not reach the area.
As far as we are concerned, all the hooha about the dead being innocent teenage seminary students is pure baloney. The madrassas are in the fore-front of providing recruits for the Afghan insurgency, we'd be just as happy to see all border madrassas attacked: it might just discourage new recruits if they knew they could die in their sleep at any time.
US Spent $38-Billion On Iraq Reconstruction says Washington Post. That's near $1300 per man, woman, and child in Iraq. The WashPo makes out the effort is a failure, and it is, but that is not evident from the story, which actually paints a positive picture. It says power supply is up except to Baghdad, and better water supply is now available. Oil exports are on target. Health clinics are a major failure, with very few of the 1400 planned working. But we know from other figures that there is a big jump in children vaccinated. Etc.
So why are we saying the effort is a failure? Lets put it this way. For approximately just $6-billion, Iraq's power generation/distribution could have been doubled. Less than half that sum could have given every Iraqi safe water. 5 million children could have been vaccinated for less than $50 million. And so on. The results are miniscule compared to the sums of money spent. That is because there have been huge overheads, genuine or otherwise, because of lack of security and American/Iraqi corruption.
Anyway, folks, lets get out blood pressure back down: the US reconstruction is winding down. By the way, the Marshall Plan, which rebuilt western Europe, cost $120-billion in today's money for a population of about - we are estimating - 175-million people. That's an other reason we say US reconstruction in Iraq has failed, big time.
Iraqi Prime Minister Orders US To Lift Sadr City Blockade US forces had blockaded Sadr City - ostensibly - to look for a US soldier of Iraqi origin reportedly kidnapped and held within the Shia stronghold. He was a translator and had illegally married a local woman. He disappeared - allegedly - while visiting his wife's family and was taken away - allegedly - by gunmen.
Why all these caveats on our part? Well, maybe he really was kidnapped. But maybe he decided he'd had enough, and certainly he could get into a lot of trouble for the marriage conducted without official permission. Permission would not have been granted had he asked, of course.
The missing soldier gave the US an opportunity to lock down Sadr City and look for bad guys. The lockdown brought down the number of Baghdad murders, except for one day. Here the disappearance of al-Sadr's militia from the streets permitted someone to plant a bomb in Sadr City that killed about 40 people. No guesses Sunnis were responsible.
Nonetheless, if the Iraqi PM has any intention of disarming militias, the lockdown should have continued.
By giving orders to the US to withdraw, he has once again shown his true colors: he will protect Shia militias till his last breath. The US should not be wasting one dollar or one more life in keeping this man in power.