0230 GMT March 31, 2006

• UN Asks Dutch To Host Liberian Dictator Trial The Dutch have basically agreed, some minor details need to be worked out. The Hague represents the best of all outcomes for Mr. Charles Taylor, but he cannot look forward to a comfortable life in jail: one Dutch condition is that he leaves Netherlands after the trial. Also, we assume any trial in the Netherlands has to be a non-death penalty affair.

• Israel's Kadima Says It Has 61 Coalition Seats with 3 parties joining it to bid to form the next government. Looks like a recipe for disaster to us, though there seems to be widespread support for Kadima's main plank, a unilateral rearrangement of settlements in the West Bank. The plan is to abandon difficult to defend settlements and protect the rest with the wall solution that has worked in Gaza.

• Pro-Russia Party Leads in Ukraine with 93% of the vote counted. The party has 31% of the vote.

• Nonetheless, a coalition of liberals say they have sufficient seats to make a bid to form the new government.

• More Fighting Feared In Somalia according to Middle East Online. The Islamic and warlord militias are observing a ceasefire, but talks are not proceeding because, Cape Times says, the warlords have refused to attend.

• The clashes began over a push by both sides for economic, military, and political control.

• Cape Times says Islamic militias fear the warlords are rearming for a new round, and say that the Somalia Minister of Defense has arranged fresh arms shipments to them.

• Middle East Online quotes a local diplomat as saying the locals favor the Islamic militias because the taxes they charge are lower and law-and-order is better. Others, however, say the Islamic courts are dominated by clan and sub-clan politics.

0230 GMT March 30, 2006

• It's a Miracle! Liberian Dictator Suddenly Found! He was trying to board a plane out of Nigeria! He has been arrested and sent to the UN Tribunal in Sierra Leone!

• So there you have, in a nutshell, the best reason to avoid bribing people. They don't stay bribed. Mr. Charles Taylor was paying off everyone from top down, including his Nigerian security detail. But when Ms. Rice expressed her displeasure, the President of Nigeria suddenly "found" the "lost" Mr. Taylor.

• The Problem with Moussaui's Confession is apparently that anyone associated with 9/11 is saying he wasn't part of the plot, he was a super pain in the baatootie, wouldn't follow instructions, couldn't pilot a 747, and boasted non-stop about how important he was.

• So it looks like his confession that he was to fly the plane into the White House seems just another attempt to get attention.

• No matter. He's saying he was part of the plot, he says he's confessing voluntarily, the looney-doctors have ruled him sane, why should the jury refuse to believe him? He says he wants to die; Americans are kind and generous at heart, they should grant him his wish.

• UN Security Council Orders Iran To Stop Enrichment In 30-days Or Else...or else what? That's the problem. The Russians and Chinese signed on to the declaration, but the Russians keep saying force is not the answer, diplomacy and peaceful talks are.

• Okay, Comrades. We believe you. Care to apply the same formula in Chechnya? Obviously not, and we back you 100% for using force in Chechnya because negotiations and diplomacy didn't work. And you know they won't work with Iran either.

• Waiting Bush Out Mike Thompson sent us a fascinating analysis from the Wall Street Journal (our email is out so we cant give the exact reference). The analysis says one reason people in Iraq, Syria, Iran, North Korea etc etc are hanging tough is because they figure US foreign policy as related to the axis of evil and spread of democracy is just a fad pushed by Mr. Bush. When he's out, they feel it'll be business as usual.

• One can understand this line of reasoning, but it has a corollary. If Mr. Bush believes when he leaves office his successor will drastically change course, he may well decide he has to do what he has to do before Inauguration Day 2009 because that's the last chance to push his agenda forward.

• So we could argue, using the same evidence, that the next 2 1/2 years are a very high risk period for the bad guys, and they should, at the minimum, be making kiss-kiss sounds, not waiting him out.

• 32 Taliban, 2 Allied Troops Killed in Afghanistan after the insurgents attack an Allied base. Air support was called in. 12 Taliban died in the initial attack, says Jang of Pakistan; 20 when the remainder fled.

• One really has to wonder what is it with these insurgents? Have they no mind? Attacking an allied base? Anyway, the fighting was in Helmand province. 32 less Taliban for the British to take care of when they arrive.

• Pakistan Terror Group Leader Abducted, Beaten A very peculiar story, but BBC also carries it. The leader of a Pakistan terror group was abducted by 8 men while at prayers near the capital, badly beaten, and then dumped by the roadside. He is in critical condition.

• We don't understand why his abductors didn't kill him. Someone sending a message because of a wrong the terror leader did to them? But why take a chance by letting him live?

• Iran To Stage "Massive" Naval Maneuvers says Xinhua of China quoting Iran sources. The coast defense exercises involving 1500 vessels and 17,000 soldiers will take place from March 31-April 6.

• We've been waiting for the announcement and are heartened. Right now, as far as we are concerned, the worst thing that can happen is the Iranians become reasonable. We aren't concerned with their bogus N-program, but with their intervention in Iraq; that's the reason their current leaders have to be put down. The maneuvers raise the temperature, something that is needed to keep the pot boiling.  This is to be an IRGC exercise - the regular forces are not involved. Interesting.

0230 GMT March 29, 2006

• US Tell Iraqis Prime Minister Jaafari Must Go BBC says the US ambassador to Iraq has told the Iraqis that Prime Minister Jaafari must be replaced. The US wants him out because he has been ineffective, because he has let Sadr run amok,  because the longer he stays in power the more sectarian violence will take place, and because the Americans are out to bust Iran's influence in Iraq.

• Blogger/Analyst Bill Roggio has explained what the reasons behind the raid on the mosque in Sadr City are. The raid was part of the US plan to get Jaafari out and to cut Sadr back to size. We have reproduced Mr. Roggio's article in Analysis.

• About time: we have said earlier in Analysis that Sadr is the most dangerous man in Iraq, determined to come to power by creating chaos. He is crude, vicious, and quite possibly a psychopath with a lust for killing. We have been complaining that the Shia clerics of Najaf have been pandering to him instead of giving orders for his army to be wiped out. Part of this was because they didn't want civil war between Shias. Najaf, the real center of Shia power, seems to have come to its senses about Sadr, but it has yet to be seen if they have the guts to face him.

• Or if in usual slimy fashion they will leave it to the Americans to finish him off, all the while making loud noises about how the Americans must go.

• If it were left to the mainstream media, we would have no clue about what's really happening in Iraq. We've been reading several mainstream sources all through today, and their lack of understanding - or even of interest - in this complex but crucial story is just appalling. The superficiality with which sources like CNN, Washington Post, and Times London are reporting the story beggars the imagination. If it weren't for people like Mr. Roggio, there would be next to no chance the reality would be reported.

• The BBC At It Again Referring to the raid in Sadr City: "Graphic footage shown on Iraqi TV channels of the bodies of men lying close together, apparently unarmed, have further fuelled concerns over the incident."

• OK BBC, why we have to explain it to you we don't know, but here it is: there were no weapons because the US/Iraqi SF troops took away the weapons. There's plenty of photographs of them doing it. Duh!

• May we suggest you stop working on your cool "ordinary people" accents and try using your brains for a change? Even the locals are saying there was a serious firefight. Don't you read your own reports? Give us a break.

• Israeli Centrist Kadima Party wins Largest Block, Netanyahu's Party Fails Agencies say with 75% of the vote counted, Kadima, the party Arial Sharon founded after he abandoned his Likud Party because they were against his peace moves - this is before he was stricken - has 28 seats, and left Labor has 20. Netanyahu, now head of Likud, has 12 seats and an extreme right wing party has 11.

• Though Kadima slipped toward the end of the campaign and has fewer seats than it had hoped for, it believes it can build a center-left coalition.

• Turnout was lowest in any Israeli election. This is the first time neither Labor nor Likud has formed the Israeli government.

• We are no experts on Israeli politics, but all we see is instability ahead. After Kadima rules for 2 years, there will have be a fresh election. You don't make a stable coalition when the largest party has less than 25% of the seats.

• US Angry After Wanted War Criminal Charles Taylor of Liberia Disappears  Originally, after Nigeria gave Charles Taylor of Liberia asylum, when the UN War Crimes Tribunal in Sierra Leone asked for his custody, the Nigerians said they had assured Mr. Taylor he would not be handed over, and this was part of the terms for his exile.

• Then after a whole bunch of countries sat on Nigeria and basically squashed it, Lagos said it would hand over Mr. Taylor. Right the next day he vanished.

• The Nigerians are shocked, shocked, and will set up a panel to investigate. Maybe he was kidnapped, they suggest.

• Okay, Lagos, you've had your fun. Now get Mr. Taylor back and in the hands of the tribunal. Otherwise you all are in big trouble - the US Secretary of State has told you to find him, be good boys and comply. You really don't want to be helping such a notorious war criminal to evade escape.

0230 GMT March 28, 2006

• Zacharis Moussaoui, Richard Reid Were To Crash White House At his sentencing trial, Moussaoui, dropped a bombshell that undid 4 years of work by his lawyers. He told the court he and Reid, the British shoe-bomber, were to crash a plane into the White House on September 11. He had said, during his trial, that the White House was his objective, but that he did not know when he was supposed to do the deed.

• Moussaoui admission comes as heaven-sent for the prosecution: earlier a government lawyer had messed up the case by coaching 7 witnesses, which is against the law. To give the Department of Justice its due, they're the one's who told the judge what their lawyer had done as soon as they learned about her wrong-doing.
• Moreover, the government has been messing up every single high profile terrorist case, chiefly because when push comes to shove, the evidence it presents doesn't support the charges. So government was pretty much in the dog house.
• Moussaoui's admission has gone the opposite way: he's said something the government had not alleged, the connection with Richard Reid.
• We Are Shocked, Shocked that two teams of government investigators used false papers to smuggle in small quantities of radioactive material into the US.
• One American senator cant wait to get the TV cameras focused on him: the report was released yesterday, he starts hearings tomorrow.
• But what exactly is he going to investigate? Surely even a US senator cannot be such a big hypocrite as to believe this event is news of any significance. The whole world and his brother knows US border security isn't worth a piece of used toilet paper, so what's the point of hearings?
• A Twist On the Baghdad Mosque Raid The Iraqi MOD is headed by a Sunni, the Interior Ministry by a Shia. The troops who raided the Sadr City mosque were MOD troops. The Interior Ministry has been accused of working hand-in-glove with Sadr.
• The mosque was not a mosque: it was a prayer hall.
• Naturally the Shias are upset about the raid. They are making the usual wild statements that are the norm for Iraq: Iraqi and American troops entered the prayer hall, tied up worshippers and killed 37 of them.
• Yeah, right. You all are a bit confused, folks. Tying up and killing is what you Iraqis do, in particular Mr. Sadr's people. Seems to be some kind of a sick ritual with you. When the Americans are out to kill, they don't have time to waste tying up people first.
• BBC At Its Best BBC says the political row after the raid increases pressure on the US military. Why? Is it BBC's case that only Sunni troublemakers should be targeted? Maybe BBC should read Bill Roggio's analysis in his www.billroggio.com - reproduced in Analysis today.
• BBC is disinclined to believe the Americans when they say they didn't enter the "mosque". The reason? News footage shows 5.56mm casings in the room.
• So BBC can assure us the Iraqi SF don't use 5.56mm weapons? Personally we don't know, we're asking BBC. Iraqi forces generally use Russian weapons, but then there's the popular AK-74 that uses 5.45mm rounds. The Americans did participate in the fight - all they're saying is they didn't enter the room. So BBC can assure us someone didn't pick up 5.56mm casings and put them in the room? BBC can swear the Shias in the area are absolutely honest with no motive to lie? And if Iraq SF use AK-74s, BBC can tell from the TV footage that its looking at 5.56mm and not 5.45mm rounds? That's a 0.1mm difference, folks, a tenth of a millimeter.
• Again, we're asking. Maybe BBC has experts who can tell, but they havent referenced those experts.
• So which are the 5.56mm rounds below? The images are from www.conjay.com, an ammunition supplier.
• The ones on the right. On the left are 0.380 rounds, 9mm. So what does this mean? Nothing really, except that unless you have an expert and you have a way of measuring objects in a picture accurately - say if 7.62mm AND 5.56mm rounds were lying together - its difficult to say anything about the caliber of a spent bullet from "news footage" - BBC's term - which indicates video.
• Al Jazzera has residents and police speaking "of a fierce battle between the soldiers and armed men from the al-Mahdi Army militia of Muqtada al-Sadr, whose followers ran the mosque."  They say about 20 people were killed.
• The Real Question: Why Is Orbat.com Wasting Time On A Stupid Debate? That to us is a great mystery. Its true the editor hasn't had a date in 3 years, since Mrs. R. announced she was leaving and since he began trying to date, but he does have other work to do.
• Meanwhile, A Word About Idiots Of The Taliban Variety The Taliban say they "welcome" the arrival of British troops in Helmand Province of the Afghanistan. They are "looking forward" to meeting the British, as they have recruited 600 suicide bombers blah blah blah.
• Well guess what, Mr.Taliban: the British are also looking forward to meeting you. They've been training very hard for the mission, and they absolutely adore assignments which require small units and lots of tramping up and down mountains.
• There's a lot of people ready at the drop of a cow patty to tell us how the US in particular, and the west in general, doesn't understand this culture or that culture. Ever occur to these people that since Day 1 of the Terror War there hasn't been a single instance of Islamic militants understanding the west?
• Mr. Taliban seems to think he'll inflict losses on the UK contingent and that will so demoralize the Brits they'll pack up and leave. Just because the Brits are mainly white, he's getting confused with some other white countries who simply haven't the guts to hack it in Iraq - we're talking of the people/government, not of their troops. The Brits are about the last people, along with the Americans, to get intimidated by casualties when they believe they're fighting a just war. Iraq, to many Britishers, is not a just war. Afghanistan is something quite different.
• Moreover, what Taliban doesn't seem to realize, he's going to find it very hard to get close to any Brits in the first place. If he has 600 suiciders, why doesn't he unleash them in Kabul, where they could make an impact and where its easy to get up close and personal with foreign troops, given the crowds and the traffic and general confusion of city life?
• Did the Taliban succeed in driving away the Americans from Helmand? The Americans are overextended so they've asked NATO to take over this area. What makes the Taliban think they're going to succeed with the British, who look to be deploying in greater numbers?
• Did we mention a number of British SF troops are also deploying? They'll be looking for you, Mr. Taliban. Wanna bet they'll find you before you find them?

0230 GMT March 27, 2006

• US/Iraqi Forces Attack Sadr Militia The US says Iraqi SF raided a mosque in Sadr City, with US support and 16 Sadr Militia - usually called the Mehdi Army in the press were killed with no US/Iraq losses.

• Sadr people say the Americans did the fighting and 22 were killed.

• Apparently the militia fired on US/Iraqi forces as the latter arrived at the mosque. US/Iraqi forces fired back, killing some gunmen. So with the logic that Sadr Militia is famous for and no one else understands, several militia ran out to engage the attackers and were killed.

• One non-western hostage was rescued, an explosives cache was blown up on the scene.

• Now, and this is interesting: some of the people killed were member of President Jaffari's political party. He is a Kurd, but he has been protecting the Sadr Militia in return for firepower. No Kurds are interested in coming to Baghdad to do the job for him, because they want independence.

• Sadr has been wrecking havoc since the Samarra Mosque bombing, murdering Sunnis left and right, then telling them only he can protect them, and murdering more Sunnis.

• Obviously someone high up has made a decision to take on Sadr. Being the overheated juvenile he is, he's unlikely to take this raid lying down. Interesting developments may lie ahead.

• Many Marines Refusing Extra Armor says Associated Press, because they are already overburdened, going on foot patrols that last several hours with 60-70 pounds. The additional armor is adding 5-10 lbs. They say this reduces their mobility and the added weight can cause injuries. This is war and people are going to die, they say.

• Some commanders have made the extra armor mandatory.

• One Marine says the extra armor has been issued to make people back home feel safer. Issue it by all means, he says, but don't make it mandatory.

• Baluchistan The usual: one Frontier Corps soldier and two insurgents killed in a firefight; a civilian killed when his motorcycle struck a land-mine; someone planted a bomb that damaged the wall of a house in Kuzdar District; someone else planted two bombs outside the residence of the Baluch Chief Minister (the senior-most provincial elected official); four bombs went off near Quetta Airport; security forces defused two land mines and so on.

• PRC Spends More On Official Cars Than On Defense An odd assertion, but apparently it comes from China Daily, a state-owned newspaper, reports London Times. The spending on official cars, drivers, and fuel etc is given as UK Sterling 21-billion/year, versus 20-billion for defense.

• We were skeptical till we saw the figure of 36 cars purchased for Sterling 337,000 in just one poor county of Human Province. The exchange rate today is USD 1.72 for one pound Sterling. That's $580,000 for this one poor county. China has 2000 counties. Then there are the provinces and the center. Then there are municipal bodies, government companies, academic institutions, sports organizations, police and so on and so forth.

• So: who's to say - it might be possible.

• Red Ken At It Yet Again After having told two Jewish developers who happen to hail from India to go back to Iran and see how they liked life under the ayatollahs - both a racist statement and a confused one, Red Ken, the Mayor of London, has again stuck his large foot in his large mouth, something quite easy for him to do.

• He has likened a critic to a "Dr. Goebbels" who was "dancing on the memory of the Holocaust."

• Er, Ken, if we may say a word here: Dr. Goebbels was anti-Jewish. You are anti-Jewish. Your critic attacked you for being anti-Jewish. That doesn't make him a Dr. Goebbels. It makes you a Dr. Goebbels. Get it?

• Yo, our British homies...this is three times in less than a month Red Ken has made racist comments. In the US, had a politician of his importance made similar comments, refused to apologize, and gone on to make more racist comments, that person would be finished for good. But from what we hear, y'all don't seem at all bothered - that's why the Ken-O-Rama is getting away with this rot. So what gives, bros?

0230 GMT March 26, 2006

• British ex-Hostage Thanks The Troops for rescuing him in Iraq. The hostages' silence on the issue was receiving comments, mainly unfavorable, in the world of blogs. The two Canadians have not said anything.

• Iraq's Foreign Minister Criticizes Arabs for being slow to help Iraq. Its about time someone said it, and of course it has everything to do with Iraq being a Shia majority state whereas as most Arabs are Sunni.

• Further, how many Arab states want Iraq to succeed? The more democracy becomes established in Iraq, the more the mostly non-democratic Arab states feel threatened.

• Arabs Call For Foreign Troop Withdrawal So instead of helping Iraq, the 22-member Arab summit at Khartoum tells Iraq to quickly form a government of national unity and asks foreign troops to leave.

• No offers on Arab troops to replace the foreign troops that should leave. A government of national unity will not stop the violence, because much of it is criminal and personal.

• This pattern of useless yapping and no action is quite typical of the Arabs, but also, we are sorry to say, of the 3rd world in general.

• Nigeria And Oil Statistics The problem with oil statistics, as one learns when one starts hanging out with them, is that ultimately no one seems to know what's going on. Case in point: Nigeria, which we have been following, and you can too - click the red hyperlink in the Energy Facts box in the left column.

• One reason oil prices are said to be high is because of uncertainty in Nigeria, supposedly because it has half-a-million barrels/day not being produced due to insurgents. In this tight market, and also given Nigeria's crude is premium stuff, that would drive prices up.

• Well, today we updated the Nigeria entry and we found that despite the lost production, Nigeria is producing above its OPEC quota. So why should prices be up because of the insurgents?

• Japanese Water Consumption: The Law Of Unintended Consequences London Times says that the Japanese got so charged up about cutting water consumption - all part of the Kyoto Protocol 1997 deal - that Japanese water companies are raising prices on water by 20%. Huh? That was our first reaction too.

• Turns out that the water companies' revenues have seriously fallen because of the enthusiasm to save water. Water, like most utilities, requires heavy long-term infrastructure investment; to make matters worse, during Japan's Pork Barrel Spending Years investments in water that were not needed were made, and now the interest payments have to be met on falling revenues.

• So much for market economics. The Americans have a ridiculous ad slogan that goes "The More You Spend The More You Save", meaning the more you go into debt the bigger rebate you get, but it seems the slogan has finally found a home, in Japan, because the less water their people are spending the more they're paying.

• Revisiting Pravda Once we found ITAR-Tass, the sort of official Russian news agency, we stopped reading Pravda. Today we looked at it again: "Humans learn to fly" (without machinery or other aids); "Will prostitution be legalized internationally"; "Buttocks Lifting Underwear Enjoys Immense Popularity In Japan"; "Japanese Sex Engineers Develop [Deleted] [Deleted]; other stuff in which most of the words will have to be deleted so readers will have no clue unless they go to www.pravda.ru That will take you to the Russian edition; look the top right for "EN" and that will take you to the English edition.

• But one story resonated with us as deeply meaningful and true. A Russian man of 30 fell through ice and was in the water for 20 minutes. But he never let go of his bottle of vodka. This was truly inspirational.

• We Haven't Been Reporting The Latest French Riots because its not a terribly interesting story. France is going down the tubes economically - unemployment in the under 30s is 20%, for example - and the government is making what to Americans will seem pathetically ineffectual attempts to "modernize" the economy. One "reform" is that any new worker can be fired with 2 years of hiring without cause. Right now you cannot fire even the most incompetent worker without a process so convoluted most employers don't bother - and they don't hiring either, one reason for the economic stagnation.

• Upset with this "revolutionary" - we should say "reactionary" if we look at it from the French perspective proposal, French youngsters have been demonstrating.

• Now, they have been quite peaceful. But it seems as if various gangs of youths have taken the opportunity to infiltrate the demonstrations and have been - surprise - burning cars and destroying shop fronts. Well, this has upset the French a great deal - partly because it's been happening not in the slums and such but near the Eiffel Tower.

• We don't consider this much of a story because the great majority of demonstrators have behaved themselves and in their reasons to demonstrate, the French are being - well, the French. That's them, love 'em or hate 'em.

• Someone did have an interesting statement the other day. They said in 1968 French youngsters were demonstrating because they wanted to change France. Things got pretty rough that year because the French riot police, the CRS, had to be called in, and this lot is trained to put down insurrection, not to use minimum force. But a generation later, French youngsters are demonstrating because they don't want France to change, at least in respect of its ultra-generous job protection and social-security system. Meanwhile, comments like this have the editor where the heck his youth went. Now he's gotten to the advanced age where he wonders: did he actually have a youth? Maybe its all a false memory.

• Everyone conversant  with Europe has stories like this: a college classmate of the just-run-away Mrs. Rikhye had a French parent, so she was entitled to migrate to France. She was in her very early 20s, a lovely young woman and smart too. She worked at a restaurant for a week until someone introduced her to Le Scam - we're trying to show we too are well educated and smart and have a great command of the French language. Next week she said she had hurt her arm on the job and proceeded to live for several years on disability that was greater than she was earning as a wage. That "years" is not a typo.

0230 GMT March 25, 2006

• And The Country Supplying The Best Port Security Equipment Is ...you guessed it, the US. And the most advanced US container scanning equipment is deployed where? No penalty if you did not guess Hong Kong. And the most advanced US equipment is NOT deployed where? Right again, its not available in the US. And the company that will scan containers from the Bahamas to the US without a single American being present is...Okay, no penalty if you did not guess Hong Kong. And the company running the Hong Kong company has close ties to...Again, you're right: to China. And the US Congress is threatening to veto the deal...Well, no. US Congress could care less.

• And the reason, according to Business Week,  the US gives for not deploying the latest equipment in America is...No penalty again if you did not guess right, the answer is lack of money.

• So obviously the equipment costs billions and billions, so that only the Chinese can afford it...Well, no. It would cost only $1.5 billion to equip US ports with the scanner.

• And the US is spending on defense, including the war against terrorism, including spy agency budgets...that you got, we're sure, its close on $550-billion including spy budgets, regular US defense budget, and extra money for Iraq and Afghanistan; and at that the equipment that is being run down without replacement is not fully funded.

• And after reading this story, our readers are...Confused. But advice from Orbat.com: Don't Worry, Be Happy. This is the way America is run these days, doesn't matter if its Democrats or Republicans doing it, they are all equally incompetent, doesn't matter what the issue is, you can be sure its going to be a Snafu.

• And When the US Ran From Somalia We Knew that it would come to this: BBC reports that Mogadishu has seen the heaviest fighting in a decade these last three days, with 70 dead. The combatants? An Islamic militia and a new coalition formed by the businessmen warlords. The warlords say The militia is sheltering foreign fighters, has links to Al Qaeda, and is killing critics. Sounds just like Pakistan's North West Frontier Province.

• Well, of course, if by the "we" we mean we - that Mr. Bill Clinton's influence on us, he's the president that got us out of Somalia - than we had no clue this was going to happen, at the time. Hadn't even heard the name "Al Qaeda", if it existed.

• But a lot of people did say a broken country was going to be a problem for everyone, and certainly since about 1996 the world has known about AQ and Somalia.

• We keep being told that we're involved in a GWOT - rhymes with Snot, and at Orbat.com we are firm supporters of the war. Our main gripe is the Administration made too many mistakes in Iraq and now we're not prosecuting the rest of the war adequately. But - we hope the Administration won't take this amiss - the G in GWOT stands for Global. As in, the whole world. Like, we have to pay attention to places like Somalia, forsaken as they may be. and however much it may hurt our heads to focus on them.

• Danish Imam Says Death Threat Was a Joke A Muslim cleric who was one of the 12 who traveled from overseas from Denmark to stir up trouble over the Prophet cartoons was caught by a hidden camera saying of a Member of Parliament that if he became minister for immigration, shouldn't two men be sent to blow him and his ministry up? The cleric says it was only a joke.

• The Danish Deputy Prime Minister has called for expulsion of radical clerics. Oddly, the MP who was threatened appears to have a Muslim name, though it needs keeping in mind many Mideast people are Christian.

• Prayer Was Responsible For Hostage Rescue say the hostages and their friends. Publicly they have given not one word of thanks to their rescuers, though Times London says one hostage "privately" gave his thanks.

• This reminds us of the rabbi who climbed up to the roof of his house to escape a big flood in Miami. He sent the first rescue boat away. "God will rescue me," he said confidently. Soon he was waist-deep in water, even on top of his roof. He sent the second rescue boat away. "God will rescue me," he said. Soon the water was to his neck. A third boat approached and was sent away in the same manner as the other two.

• The water kept rising. Just before he went under, the rabbi looked to the heavens and berated God. "I prayed and I prayed," he cried, "and Lord, you just ignored me!"

• A deep, rolling voice answers from the heavens. "I sent three boats to save you! You want I should do more?"

• So, OK, it was prayer that saved the hostages. God, they say, moves in mysterious ways His wonders to perform. So, OK, he sent the British SAS in answer to the hostages' prayer. Is it still so hard to just say a simple "thank you?"

0230 GMT March 24, 2006

• Did Russian Ambassador Give Saddam US War Plans? asks ABC News. In which case the answer has to be no, because the Russians did not know American war plans.

• What the report refers to, ignoring the sloppy headline, is that according to documents seized in Iraq that are now being declassified and made available to the public on President Bush's orders, the Russians may have given Iraq information on US deployments.

• Big yawn. The Iraqis could have got most of that information from the US press had they bothered. Russia's cooperation with Iraq was close and continued right to the fall of Baghdad, after which there was no Iraq government to deal with. None of this is any secret to anyone except ABC.

• US Military Deaths Less under Bush II Than Reagan Mike Thompson forwards an interesting figure. During Ronald Reagan's first term in office, 9163 military personnel died in service; in President Bush's first term, 5187. No figures later than 2004 are as yet available.

• The military was, of course, about 50% bigger in Reagan's time. That the Bush II figures are considerably lower despite the Iraq War (784 dead in 2004) is, we found on checking, because of remarkable reductions in non-combat deaths in every category including accidents, homicides, illness, and suicides. In 1981, for example, 1555 servicepersons died in accidents. In 2004 it was 565.

• Admittedly this is one of those "neither here nor there" figures because without the Iraq War US military deaths would have been in the 4400 range.

• UK Special Air Service Rescues Hostages On information received from a detainee, who Times London says had been under surveillance for several days, a British special forces team rescued 3 hostages belonging to a peace-activist group held in a Baghdad house.

• The British troops belong to a special 250 man joint UK-US-Australia special forces task groups. The group had been looking for these particular westerners for months - and presumably looking for other hostages too.

• Times says the operation, which was meticulously planned and rehearsed  - the rescuers had reconnaissance pictures including from a Predator - took exactly two minutes and the kidnappers escaped.

• We had a few giggles over that. The paper describes how 25 men stormed every room simultaneously to ensure no one escaped. Now, it's possible none of the captors was in the house - but how likely is that? The house as under surveillance: the newspaper does not say anyone was observed leaving.

• In accordance with sensible procedure, SAS shoots every bad guy on sight: there is no "get down on the floor you blankety blanks" such as we see in the movies. The troops are trained not to take any chances, the hostages were white, their captors not, so there would be no question of lining up people to check who was a hostage and who was a captor, and in these situations the only way to be sure you aren't asking for trouble is to kill the other people.

• Christian Group Does Not Thank Coalition For Rescuing Hostages The peace activists belong to a group opposed to US-UK policy in Iraq, but we do think they are being a tad ungracious: instead of a thank you for the rescue, the Coalition got another blast about the illegal occupation being the cause of the insecurity which led to the kidnapping and so on and so forth.

• Our reaction: Roll of the Eyes. Its not insecurity that led to the kidnapping, it's a desire for ransom money. And the missionaries themselves were there because of the illegal occupation: no illegal occupation, no visa to visit/live in Iraq as foreigners were not welcome. There's several carts and horses chasing each other around here.

• By the way, one of the hostages had insisted he did not want to be rescued by the military. We wouldn't at all be surprised if the British politely apologized to him for ruining his day.

• Pakistan Says "Taliban" Killed In Afghanistan Were Civilians on a festival visit to relatives and that the local Afghan commander killed them as part of a blood feud. His brother had been killed by members of the same tribe.

• What we'd like to know is, why were these civilians traveling at night? The border between Afghanistan and Pakistan is open to night traffic? And people cheerfully drive around at night? Sounds odd. Its not even clear to us the people crossed the border legally.

• The Afghan governor of the province concerned has said his information is the men were criminals and had entered Afghanistan in furtherance of their illegal activities.

• Israeli Right Wing Party Asks Israeli Arabs To Leave OK, so this is another nut-case party with a fruitcake idea, but the story has an interesting twist. The party, Herut, was asking for Arab votes so that it can win - and then give money to Israeli Arabs to leave Israel.

• The Jerusalem Post story makes very clear the local Israelis are upset with the right-wing party and its attack on their Arab-origin neighbors.

0230 GMT March 23, 2006

• Afghans Kill 15 Taliban as the insurgents crossed the border from Pakistan. We note these border interceptions are becoming more numerous and more effective, suggesting both improved border surveillance and better intelligence on Pakistani border areas.

• There is a possibility the dead were not genuine insurgents but involved in the drug trade.

• Murdered UK MPs Had No Communication With Base The inquest into the deaths of 6 British Army MPs at the hands of Iraqi insurgents in 2003 reveals they had no satellite telephone link - the officer immediately above the men said he was under the impression none were available. The men, sent by themselves to help look after several police stations could only communicate using 1960s vintage equipment.

• This is absolutely sickening. No wonder the families of the men are getting more enraged as the inquest proceeds.

• Gambia Coup Foiled Reuters says the head of the military has fled and 10 officers in custody on suspicion of plotting a military coup. The present head of state himself came to power after a 1994 coup, though he is about to hold elections for a 3rd time since then.

• British Letter Calling For Iran Military Action "Leaked" The letter, by a foreign office bureaucrat, was sent to his counterparts in US, Germany, and France. It proposes the west tell China/Russia to get on board with an Chapter 7 referral - which if approved by the Security Council clears the way for military action, but agree to further talks and face-saving formulas for Iran. In effect this means giving diplomacy another chance but with a Chapter 7 referral to convince Iran the matter is serious.

• The Chinese and Russians want it the other way around: more diplomacy - futile in our opinion - and only if that fails then a Chapter 7 should be considered.

• The US approach is "No negotiations before Chapter 7, no negotiations after Chapter 7, just clobber them".

• So here we have the bad copy - US, followed by the good cop - UK, and the whole thing conveniently leaked so that the Iranians, Chinese, and Russians get the idea.

• US Dismissive Of Iran Talks Offer and sees it as an attempt to divert attention from an impending N-program showdown.

• Personally, we agree. The news that Iran wanted talks with the US because the instability in Iraq was worrying it made little sense since Iran can achieve its objectives in Iraq only through instability.

• Our attitude on hearing the news was, well we surely don't know everything, and maybe the Iranians are worried about instability. This is seeming less and less likely to us. So what's the deal on the talks?

• Our take - always subject to revision as more information arrives is: 1. The talks were suggested by a big time Shia cleric, US obviously thought it impolitic to say "no" regardless of what it thought. 2. As far as the Iran hardliners are concerned, this is a welcome diversion. 3. What's more interesting is why Iran moderates went along with, or got their pal in Iraq to propose, the idea of talks.

• Our guess - and it is only a guess at this time - is they're looking to establish channels of communication with the US and have decided this is the best way of doing it, as opposed to - say - clandestine contacts.

• UK "Supreme Court" Upholds Ban on Hijab At School The House of Lords, which functions as UK's Supreme Court, allowed a school's appeal banning a female student from wearing full-body covering clothes. Her case was her religion required the full covering.

• The Lords noted the school was 75% Muslim and the head was a Muslim; it has gone to "extraordinary" lengths to devise a uniform acceptable to the parents/students and there had been no problems before this. [Editor: The uniform is the traditional South Asian salwar-kameez: baggy pants and full-sleeved, high neck shirt. This covers all parts of the body except for the face and hands. The hair can be covered by a duppata, a length of cloth which South Asian girls/women wear as a reversed scarf, i.e., the duppata is worn around the neck but the end dangles at the back. Girls/women use it as a head covering, and also as a makeshift veil the face at need.]

• The school said, and the Lords accepted, that if an exception was made for the student, other parents/students could ask for exceptions and the school would end up with no policy on uniforms.

• Few US schools have uniforms - we wouldn't want to get in the way of our little darlings expressing their individuality. As a school-teacher your editor feels his girl little darlings wear far too little. His boy little darlings wear too much: clothes that are several sizes too big, not to mention the uninvited view of their boxers as their pants hang on their lower waists. Students with more money make their superior economic status very clear and this should not be happening, particularly at an age children are very conscious about money and status.

• And before you ask, yes it did happen in Washington, once that we know of. A youngster fleeing the authorities tripped and became entangled in his own pants after they fell to his knees as he ran.

0230 GMT March 22, 2006

• Looney Tuners Continue Inexorable March We must make clear we have nothing against prominent people being idiots. We have a lot against people who are boring idiots. And today's news, unfortunately, is about boring idiots. Our thanks to Mike Thompson among others for alerting us.

• Child of Swans says that DPRK now has an ability to preempt the US, and if the US knows what's good for it, it will enter into an agreement with DPRK like it has with India. For starters, India has not threatened anyone with N-weapons, not even its adversaries, and then demanded an agreement with the US. Next, the N-agreement with India is just one of many that is being signed between two parties who have become allies. Last, regardless of what US sources say, DPRK's preemptive capability is a fantasy.

• Hugo Latin Revolutionary says if the US attacks Venezuela, all of Latin America's revolutionaries will come to Venezuela's support. How many times does Hugo have to be told? US is not interested in invading you. It has neither the intent, nor the capability, nor the time. There are thousands of things of greater concern: who will be the finalists in the basketball championship, what Apple's new video I-Pod will look like, who Paris Hilton's next boyfriend will be - do you get the idea, Hugo? The US has a life. You don't. Take a hint from orbat.com's editor, who also doesn't have a life. Go play with your rubber duckies or something, just don't bore us to death.

• Red Ken Of London Towne manages to boot himself in the rear again. Already in trouble for gross anti-Semitic remarks he made to a correspondent for no reason anyone has been able to determine, Red Ken, Mayor of London has now said two developers he is scrapping with should go back to Iran and see how they like life under the ayotollahs if they don't like the way things are done in London - meaning the way he does things in London. Go back to Iran why? They happen to be Britishers of Indian Jewish origin and have nothing to do with Iran. Hint to readers: Red Ken, so called because he thinks he is a leftie, is a British "Intellectual", you know, the people who are so superior in their "intelligence" compared to the hapless Mr. George Bush?

• More Critical World News In case you thought "I am a victim" was an America Only syndrome, here is news from UK, thanks to the London Times. The deputy head of a school is giving evidence before a labor tribunal that she was sexual harassed because no one would give a new chair to replace the one she had.

• Her chair apparently - um - "farted" when she sat in it. She asked for a new one, the men working with her got new ones but not she. She spent a lot of time explaining to visitors to her office it was the chair and not her.

• She was so despondent that she wanted to commit suicide.

• The head teacher said there had been a delivery of chairs and they expected the deputy head would pick it up herself.

• US Prosecuting Vietnam Deserters This story, also from London Times, is interesting. Apparently US authorities are arresting Vietnam era deserters after years of having ignored the matter. The military says it has nothing to do with Iraq because of which, it is thought, 3000 servicemen a year have deserted since 2003 - a bit lower than normal. It is not trying to send a message to current deserters, just doing its job.

• Well, the military is lying and should be held to account for NOT arresting deserters all these years, especially as many seem to have been living in full sight. In case our foreign friends are confused: the US granted an amnesty to draft evaders after the Vietnam War ended. Desertion is a a very much more serious crime.

0230 GMT March 21, 2006

• Former CIA Man Says 2-Days Needed To Wipe Our Iran N-Program This is from the officer who led the search for Osama in 2001. He tells Jerusalem Post between 15-30 targets need to be attacked, and believes US anti-bunker bombs will kill the hardened underground targets.

• Earlier Richard Perle, a former Administration national security official, had said the attack could be conducted in one night using the B-2 force alone.

• A lot of this sort of talk is in too general terms to be of interest to us. We've said the anti-N-program attack is much easier than people think because the great majority of targets associated with the program do not need to be hit. The 300 target figure comes from adding up every factory, every university lab, every base etc.

• At the same time, we've noted the problem is not the N-facilities attack, it is the need to preempt Iranian action against oil targets. Its still perfectly feasible, but it isn't going to be done in one night or two. Weeks is a better working figure.

• What we find interesting is the CIA gentleman's assertion that Iran should not count on Mr. Bush's weakened position to assume it will escape an attack. The ex-official says Mr. Bush will move after the 2006 mid-term election, and will not concern himself about domestic opposition. Many people believed he would not attack Iraq, but he did, and he is serious about disarming Iran.

• We have speculated Mr. Bush's weakness will inhibit an attack. The official does have a point: Mr. Bush tends to push on regardless on issues he believes in strongly regardless of opposition.

• The official believes the Iranians are going to misjudge the US. We agree. They already are: Teheran has convinced itself the US is so frightened of $100/barrel oil it will not move against Iran. In our humble opinion about the last thing the US will worry about is the price of oil.

• Also, the one thing people forget about the Americans: when they are in a real fight and lots of things are being blown up they get hugely thrilled regardless of what they believed before the fight. If things don't go well later, they get remorseful. But is that any comfort to Saddam? Similarly, dear Iranian leaders, let it not be of comfort to you.

• US To Hold Arabian Sea Naval Exercises in May this year. Codenamed Arabian Gauntlet the exercise will simulate - surprise, surprise (not) the Iranians mining the Straits of Hormuz and trying to attack US naval units with swarms of explosive laden boats. The latter is a lost strategy before it is launched: the US is not going to have a single warship within reach of Iranian suicide boats.

• Two things to remember. Blocking tanker traffic in the Arabian (Persian) Gulf has been tried before, by Iraq during the war with Iran. Iran retaliated and clashed several times with the US Navy. The effort was a complete failure. Of course, Iran has a better ability to close Hormuz than the Iraqis had to stop tanker traffic. But western capabilities in the Arabian Gulf have grown manifold since the Iran-Iraq war. This will not be Iran against the US: it will be Iran against the rest of the world because everyone will be hit by reduced oil supplies - the US ironically least of all.

• Also, while we don't have the figures yet: sinking ships in the 3-km shipping channel does not mean the Straits get closed. That tactic can create problems for the deep draught supertankers. Smaller tankers will get through fine and, depending on their size/draught, will be able to operate outside the channel.

• Belmont Club has a nice discussion at  http://belmontclub.blogspot.com/2005/03/hormuz-austin-bay-discusses.html It quotes the US DIA Director as saying Iran could close the Straits - "briefly".

• Pricing Drug Hauls BBC says Ecuador has seized 2,700 kg of cocaine worth $540-million at street price. The haul came from a Mexico bound ship, so presumably it was for the US.

• A quick search did not give us 2006 prices. The 2003 US street price according to the United Nations http://www.unodc.org/pdf/WDR_2005/volume_2_chap7_cocaine.pdf was $77/gram. In March 2006 street price varied from $20/gram in New York to $80/gram in Los Angeles. The wholesale price was $21,500/kilo in 2003.

• Thus, the shipment is worth less than $60-million wholesale.

• The issue of price is not a big deal: it makes no difference if law enforcement people want to make themselves look good by inflating prices. Given the profit margin, a whole lot of people would be quite happy to smuggle cocaine even if officials used realistic prices. Nonetheless, we thought we'd check the prices.

• By the way, US with 4.5% of the world population is thought to consume 60% of smuggled drugs. Its no wonder Islamic fundamentalists think the US is on the verge of collapse and all it needs is a little push from them.

• Big mistake, brothers, as you have found. Big mistake. The degree of sex, alcohol, drugs, pornography, crime etc in a society like the US has no impact at all on its fighting ability. We at orbat.com often make mistakes too. But we try and avoid mistakes that end up with us being dead. Live and let live, brothers. Otherwise Sam will kill you. And frankly, we for sure think its not a bad thing.

• Major Holders of US Treasury Bonds are Japan ($644-billion), PRC ($263-billion), and UK ($242-billion). The total held overseas is about $2200-billion. Figures are for March 15, 2006, from US Treasury.

• OPEC, oddly enough, owns only $78-billion. In part this has to be because until very recently OPEC was spending money nearly as fast as it was making it. Nonetheless, one has to wonder if OPEC members fear trouble with relying too much on US Treasuries. Japan's holdings are accounted for, in large part, its massive financing of its social security programs against the day Japan becomes a country of the aged.

• Some Chinese economists says their country's forex reserves are way too large and all that China is doing is providing Washington with cheap funds. They argue China needs to reduce its forex reserves by two-thirds, which would require a massive sell off of US assets.

0230 GMT March 20, 2006

• Largest Iran Reform Party Calls For N-Talks with the west and proposes a freeze on N-activity.

• This is all well and good, but haven't we been there before? There were talks for 2 years, there were suspensions of N-weapons work, nothing came of them; Iran was referred to the UN Security Council which is trying to figure out a line of action. So what would be the point of more talks? If Iran is willing to give up its N-weapons program, then there's a point to talks. Otherwise, whatever the intent of the reformers, their proposal will simply mean another waste of time.

• UK's Jack Straw Bells the Cat by saying after Iran's N-program is taken care of, discussions will have to start on Israel's bomb. according to Jerusalem Post, Israel has decided to play it cool and to offer no reaction to Mr. Straw's comments.

• Well, Mr. Straw has a valid point, and Israel already has a security guarantee from the US. Bringing Israel into NATO should give the Israelis confidence enough to abandon N-weapons. At which point, of course, the Arabs freak out because Israel is now part of NATO.

• The larger issue, however,  of why 5 countries should have N-weapons and no one else is not being addressed by the 5 countries. If the 5 agreed to dismantle their arsenals under international verification, no one else would have any justification for keeping theirs. But telling people like Iran, Israel, and India "you have to give up your weapons while we keep ours" is not, in the long run, a workable proposition.

• So, if Mr. Straw really wants to prove his bonafides to the Iranians, he should call not just for discussion about Israel, but also about the UK.

• Hamas Government Has No Terrorist Ministers says Jerusalem Post. Moreover, the man in charge of security forces - which are controlled by Fatah, which in turn has refused to put its forces under Hamas - is known to have a working relationship with Fatah.

• OK, a good start. Now can we hear Hamas say it renounces terror even if it won't recognize Israel? If the new government would commit to that, everything else is pointless and the reality remains: you have an announced bunch of terrorists running a country.

• Pakistan: More Trouble We're wondering if Jang of Pakistan has been saving up the bad news because there is a powerful lot of it.

• Six security personnel were killed by a remote bomb in the Northwest Frontier Province. Two soldiers were killed in the same area by a grenade attack. Two tribal police in Baluchistan were kidnapped after unknown persons attacked a picnic - we realize this doesn't make much sense but that's what Jang says. There was a big exchange of fire including rockets and so on, as they fled the attackers seized the two policemen.

• But this news pales in comparison to the report that hundreds of Taliban have appeared in another border district, Malakand. They have teamed up with local criminals and unleashed a wave of crime, including kidnappings for ransom. The locals have failed to get hostages released, so they are forming a tribal force to go fight the criminals and Taliban. According to Jang, the security forces are nowhere to be seen.

• First, we need to let our readers know that Pakistan ISI has partially rebuilt the Taliban. That is why these charming people are back in some force, in Pakistan and in Afghanistan. Pakistan has been handing over Al Qaeda types to the Americans left and right, but nary a Taliban. In fact when the US attacked the Taliban dinner party a few weeks ago Pakistan raised all heck.

• Second, their appearance in another district is a serious matter. Tribal districts are very lightly policed as the locals administer their own law. It doesn't take much for an organized bunch of thugs to take over.

• We'll have to wait till our South Asia correspondent enlightens us on what is going on here.

• US Navy Captures 13 Suspected Pirates The missile cruiser Cape St. George and the missile destroyer Gonzalez captured 13 suspected pirates after an inspection boarding party from the ships was fired on off Somalia. A Somali person says his men were on fisheries protection when the US Navy fired on them.

• The US Navy had considerable experience in marine interdiction and it is not the Navy's habit to open fire for no reason.

0230 GMT March 19, 2006

• Harvard Study Says Israeli Lobby Hurts US Jerusalem Post says according to a Harvard the Israeli lobby in the US is so powerful it gets the US to act against its own interest. Needless to say, the study has ignited a storm of protest.

• First, we must commend the Jerusalem Post for its highly professional reporting. It has given the story impartially, explaining the points made by the authors, and has avoided going into a rant from the second line onward.

• Second, we don't understand why any one is upset about the study because to us, as 3rd World types, the conclusions are so obvious that no comment is needed.

• We have not seen the study. Nonetheless, no one we personally know has ever said that were the US to abandon Israel America's problems with the Muslims world would end. We've often explicitly said that America's problems with the Muslim world at this time have nothing to do with US support of Israel: the Muslims who hate America would have hated America even if no Israel had existed, simply because the US is the biggest and the baddest boy on the block.

• For example, have the Arabs ever given America even a hint of appreciation at the way President Eisenhower forced the British and French to call off the seizure of the Suez Canal in 1956? Anyone have anything to say about the Americans helping FRY Muslims to win their independence? The Arab indifference in particular, and the Islamic indifference in general, to the plight of the Palestinians is too well known to repeat: Israeli mistreatment of the Palestinians is no justification for what people like Osama are doing.

• At the same time, American support of Israel often comes at so high a cost that no other interest group could continue to bend American policy the way the pro-Israel lobby does. Anyone want to tabulate the money the US has had to give Israel to stay alive, not to say give to Egypt and Jordan for the peace with Israel? Anyone care to apportion what percentage of the US decision to invade Iraq 2003 was because the elimination of Saddam - and the expected subsequent removal of Syria - would help Israel? And in return for all that money Israel has done what for the US?

• But: look, people. The Jews who migrated to America were highly educated. They quickly established themselves and became extremely successful in terms of money. Their intelligence and hard work led them to important positions in the government/academia from where they could influence policy. Their love for their brethren led them to pour money into influencing US decision makers and policing the media to ensure the best treatment for Israel and the worst for Arabs.

• So they have an influence on US foreign policy out of all proportion to their numbers. But then that's the way life is. Rich people have more power than poor people, and its got nothing to do with religion or ideology or whatever. You cant beat up the Jews for being successful at what they do, in this case at influencing US policy even against American interests.

• America is a free country. You don't like the influence of the Jewish lobby, no one is stopping you from setting up your own lobby or making your existing lobby more efficient.

0230 GMT March 18, 2006

• US-UK Open New Front Against Iran Jang of Pakistan reports that Iran has said Afghan "bandits" with ties to the US and UK staged an ambush critically wounding the governor of Zahedan, a major town in Sistan-Baluchistan, and killing 22 others. A number of others have apparently been seized as hostages, the Iranians are waiting for details. The "bandits" set up a fake police checkpoint for the operation.

• We have earlier mentioned Iranian Baluch insurgents working out of Pakistani Baluchistan.

• Our South Asia correspondent, Mandeep Singh Bajwa, alerts us to intensive efforts by the UK to penetrate Iranian Khuzistan, where most of the oil fields are located. There have been continued bombing and sabotage incidents.

• We wholly support these actions to the extent they are aimed at legitimate regime targets and not at civilians. Iran has for years now been financing, arming, and manning insurgency in Lebanon and Palestine; its activities in Iraq are no secret. Its time the Iranian regime got a taste of its own medicine.

• US-Iran To Discuss Iraq Iran, saying it is following up on the request of a prominent Iraqi Shia politician, called for talks on Iraq with the US. Washington warns the talks may be an attempt to divert attention from the N-issue; nonetheless, the US ambassador to Iraq has been authorized to talk to the Iranians.

• BBC says the Iranians are just as worried about Iraq spinning out of control as the Americans (what's the problem, Teheran? Sadr The Slimeball not listening to you anymore? Are you surprised?). Therefore, despite major differences, the US and Iran can gain from talks. These will be the first official contacts between the two countries since 1979. The US has made it clear there will be no discussion of the N-issue.

• The Iranians pride themselves on their ability to deceive the west; they are about to learn a sad, sad truth about the Americans. The masters of deceit are not the Iranians, but the Americans. And the Americans will stick it to the Iranians completely within the framework of any agreement, formal or informal, that is reached.

• US To Hand Over 75% Of Iraq Control By End-Summer says the US second-in-command in Iraq (story from NPR). As a general rule, the US regards one Iraqi brigade the equal of one US battalion in the counterinsurgency. In theory, then, by late summer the US should be able to drawn down 10 brigades total, because the 10 Iraqi divisions should be fully combat capable. Of course, that's 10 brigades from the peak force of about 17-18 brigades. That will leave 7-8 US brigades in Iraq for the rest of the year and into 2007.

• Syrians Form Opposition Front In Exile Baby Assad may need to loosen his natty tie and jacket, things just got hotter. Jerusalem Post reports that six exile  opposition groups meeting in Brussels have formed a front for national salvation, and have called for a transitional government to take over Syria for six months at the appropriate time. The first elements of the platform have been announced: ending the 1963 state of emergency and release of all political prisoners.

0230 GMT March 17, 2006

• Saddam Trial May Be Drawing To An End We're surprised at this news but it appears most of the major witnesses have said their piece and the defendants have had their chance at cross-examination. It's already being said that there may be no more Saddam trials: if he is found guilty for the Dujail massacre he has to be executed in 30 days and that will be the end of the story. About time, too.

• The trial is adjourned for three weeks.

• Pressure on Palestine Authority To Resign Grows after the seizure by Israel of six prisoners who were going to be set free. The apparent helplessness of the PA police in failing to put up resistance against the Israelis and the worldwide media images of PA police stripped to their briefs with their hands cuffed has upset Palestinians.

• Its easy for those that weren't at the receiving end of the Israeli Army to talk about failing to put up resistance. Apart from kidnapping a whole lot of western aid workers who are there to help the Palestine people, we don't see these fierce resistors doing anything beyond yak yak yak.

• The police and prisoners surrendering to the Israeli Army at Jericho prison were ordered to strip before approaching soldiers as a precaution against explosives.

• Meanwhile, President Abbas continues with his completely pointless accusations about the British and Americans colluding with the Israelis to seize the prisoners. How is it, he asks, that ten minutes after the foreign monitors left the jail the Israelis attacked?

• Well, lets go over this using idiot language, Mr. Abbas. For days it was apparent that you were preparing to release the prisoners, violating the agreement your predecessor, the illustrious Mr. Arafat, had made in exchange for his freedom. The Israelis, British, and Americans knew about your impending decision as discussions were taking place in public. Next, the monitors received warning they were about to be seized by Palestinians as a prelude to the release of the prisoners. In accordance with long-standing, carefully rehearsed plans made urgent by your impending decision, the monitors immediately withdrew, giving you 10-minutes warning. They also warned the Israelis, as they were required to do. The Israelis were standing by, they moved in.

• The crux of the matter, Sir, is that your lot as about as close to the Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight as we're likely to get anywhere in the world. Since everything the Palestinians do seems to be preceded by days and hours of chest thumping and strutting, and since in any case your administration is completely infiltrated by the Israelis, all that happened is the Israelis moved faster than the Palestinians.

• End of the story. Instead of blaming the Americans and British, blame yourself for clearly saying you would not oppose the "will of the people" or some similar rot over the release.

• We used to have a lot of sympathy for you and in these columns have defended you, saying that your power was limited by the ever-present threat of assassination by one terrorist group or another. Our problem has become that you have long shown yourself to be ineffective - and we are not blaming you one bit. In your position, we'd have quit and hightailed it to Paris or wherever. The problem is you still insist on clinging to office for the benefits it brings you [wink wink nod nod]. If you are to regain the relative honesty for which you were respected, you need to do exactly what the terrorists are telling you to do: resign.

• Baluch Insurgents Cause Major Blackouts in several districts including Quetta City by blowing up a power pylon and apparently damaging others. Power to Quetta was restored fairly soon by rerouting, but it will take a week for repairs to be made.

• By which time the insurgents will have blown up something else.

• US Deficit Financing Limit Raised to $9-Trillion to avoid default on Treasury bills coming due. $3-trillion of that deficit has been accumulated on President Bush's watch. That puts the US public debt to GDP ratio on its way to approaching 75% within a year, which is about the average for Latin America. But Latin America's ratio is falling, the US's is increasing.

• The debt as of yesterday was $8.2 trillion; when Mr. Bush took office is was $5.6 trillion. Expect about $11 trillion debt on a GDP of $13-trillion (all round figures) by the time Mr. Bush retires. The further problem is that when Mr. Bush took office in January 2001, the US was projected to generate a $5.6 trillion surplus by 2011 - we're not sure how, we got the figure from a US Congressional Budget Office source. In September 2004 the US was instead expected to be in deficit of $3.5 trillion over that period, or $9 trillion down. Its going to be a lot more, of course.

• If you want to know why Republicans are mad at their leader, look no further.

• We've said this before: you can't build a world empire if your economy is not strong. We don't care what the economic pundits say, you don't have a strong economy when you are approaching banana republic status with the National Debt. This is a national security issue as much as the Terror War.

• Reader Dean M. Brunkhardt Not Impressed By China Rail I must take exception with just how much better China is than the US when it comes to rail technology.

• Simply put:  Mass transportation is socialism; owning your own car is capitalism. Riding the bus or train means you are on someone else's schedule and reliant on them.  With a car, you can get up and go whenever you like.

• Although car ownership in China is increasing (based on the TV shots I see of major cities) I'll wager that bikes, walking, and attaching trailers to a beast of burden are still the main mode of transportation, especially in the hinterlands.  A spiffy new rail system, while headline grabbing, masks the harsh reality most Chinese people still face:  walking or riding a bike.

• America, when people live in poverty, they own a car, a TV, and have basic living conditions met.  And yes, they still can ride the light rail.

0230 GMT March 16, 2006

• Finally, A Plan For Iraq Exit It may have come too late to save the President's sinking popularity ratings, but at least the US has finally articulated a sensible plan both for measuring progress in Iraq and for its exit. The yardstick will be percentage of Iraq over which the Iraqis have control for their security. Once it gets to 50% US can start pulling troops out.

• That doesn't mean US troops won't be needed in the areas the Iraqis control. And it doesn't mean everyone is happy with the yardstick. Some are saying the percentage is irrelevant because its Baghdad and the Sunni majority provinces that are highly insecure.

• Nonetheless, at least there is a yardstick instead of the vague "we don't want to comfort the enemy so all we'll say is we're ready to stay as long as neccessary", a stand that led to the uncomfortable suspicion there was no plan.

• It has to be acknowledged that while much has gone wrong since the Samarra Mosque bombing, the Iraq Army is progressing rapidly. At least as far as we know, the Sunni-Shia divide has not hit the Army, which is doing a sterling job. We do hope people realize that given the situation, a bigger Army is needed, at least 250,000 troops, or 15 divisions instead of the 10 that was the target - and which has been reached.

• We're trying to recall who it was that warned, when the Anbar tribes turned against al Qaeda and foreigners, that since Anbar was no longer safe for the terrorists, they would hit Baghdad. That is exactly what has happened. And the reason it has happened is the same old, same old: not enough troops. More on this another time.

• "Iran Central Banker for Terrorism" says Rice She said this in Australia, according to Associated Press. We're unsure what to make of her announcement. It happens to be true, but the US has never previously before used such strong language.

• Separately, in a move opposed by the administration, the US House Foreign Relations Committee voted 37-3 to end economic aid to any country investing in Iran's energy sector. It is expected to pass a full house vote.

• Though the measure contains exceptions in case the administration says they are in the national interest, the US government says that the vote will hamper conduct of US foreign policy. To quote an administration official: "the legislation would "create tensions with countries whose help we need in dealing with Iran and shift the focus away from Iran's actions and spotlight differences between us and our allies."

• The House, however, says that the matter is urgent. Of course, should it also pass the Senate the measure will be vetoed by the President, but the House Committee's action highlights the difficulties the President has in running his foreign policy.

• Religious School in Miranshah Demolished by Pakistan security forces, says Jang of Pakistan. As usual, the Pakistan Government has to disagree, and says it was only a house used by terrorists.

• Security forces had earlier attacked and destroyed buildings housing two rebel clerics responsible for attacks against security forces in the area.

• But: just to show how totally useless reporting from Pakistan is, there is now a report that one of the clerics has barred his followers from attacking the Pakistan security force within a radius of 25-km from Miranshah. An earlier attack against a post 12 km from town is said to be the work of elements not under his control.

• How is anyone supposed to make any sense of all these contradictions, and why do these major developments simply pop up without warning in the middle of press reports? Has this cleric decided on a truce with the security forces after being battered by gunships and artillery? Did he mean to get involved in the attack on Miranshah in the first place, or was he not involved? No one who is reporting seems to have a clue.

• China To Build New MagLev Rail Line We honestly take no pleasure in these stories about how China is doing something else groundbreaking. They make the US look pathetic, but reality has to be faced. In the US the rich are determined to save every last dollar from tax so they can spend it on themselves (they call it "investing to create jobs", the problem being the jobs seem to pay minimum wage while making more fortunes for the rich) and so there is no public money for investments like high speed rail. US infrastructure in general is in terrible shape, but we all got used to having the Europeans outdo us in this arena. Now the Chinese, who are a poor country by any measure, are outdoing us. Ah, but no one produces entertainment like America. Quite right, so lets watch the latest context on our I-Pod Mini TV screens as we chug along in Amtrack trains, which are vestiges of some previous century, may be the 17th or even the 15th, while the Chinese float on their MagLev lines.

• This new one is to be built linking Shanghai with Hangzhou, 106 miles southwest - apparently through a hi-tech corridor. It will be a $4 billion extension of the Transrapid, the world's first commerical MagLev line which runs 19 miles to Shanghai International Airport. Though trains have hit 310 mph (500 kph) in tests, the run will be made at 270 mph.

• Meanwhile. China is also building a new Shanghai-Beijing rail line, using conventional technology to cover the 820 mile distance in 5 hours as opposed to the current 13. The trains will travel at 220 mph.

0230 GMT March 15, 2006

• Israelis Storm Jericho Prison and capture six terrorists that were about to be released by the Palestinians in contravention of agreements with the US, UK, and Israel. The six had originally been in Israeli custody, but under the US brokered 2002 accord that ended Israel's siege of Arafat's compound, they were transferred to Palestine custody. International monitors were stationed at the jail to ensure they were not moved.

• After Hamas came to power, it said it was going to free the men; President Abbas said he would not oppose the move. The monitors left, the Israelis moved in, and after some fighting in which two PA policemen were killed and others wounded, the six surrendered.

• The above shows the big problem of dealing with the Palestinians. If agreements are to be made only when it is advantageous to do so, and broken when it is not advantageous to do, what is their word worth? Precisely nothing.

• Serb Dictator Had Not Been Taken Prescribed Medicine Apparently aside from the unauthorized use of an antibiotic which would negate his blood-pressure medicine, Mr. Milosevic had been caught earlier not taking his medicine in the first place.

• Pakistan Starts Expelling Afghans From Waziristan This was to be expected after the trouble with Taliban and al Qaeda fighters sheltering in Pakistan. At the same time, many of the Afghans now liable for expulsion are simply ordinary people who came as refugees, and grown up, married, and settled down in Pakistan. As a practical matter it is very hard for Pakistan to say which Afghan falls in which category. The government's writ never ran in the border areas to begin with. On top of that the refugee flow was unregulated.

• Violence continues in Baghdad, 72 die in 24 hours After the Samarra Mosque bombing, the only time when Baghdad is peaceful if when vehicular curfews are imposed.

• Meanwhile, the US Joint Chiefs of Staff says he cannot prove that Iran is behind the shipment of the new heavy duty IEDs that are being used and a shipment of which was intercepted at the border. It was traced to an Iranian factory after an analysis of the welds.

• General Pace's legalistic talk is irritating. Even Rummy said he had no proof. So are we to assume that Iran is in a state of such anarchy that non-governmental types can order IEDs from a private factory and ship them to Iraq without the government knowing? Odd, because everything we hear from Iran is that it is a rather efficient police state.

• At the same time, after the WMD fuss, what else are General Pace and Rummy to say except that Iran is innocent unless proven otherwise, lest they be accused of hyping the threats.  Assuming the Iranians are not complete idiots, the matter can never be proved.

• Africa's Internet Access Problems The Sat3 cable which connects Europe to Western and Southern Africa and then to Asia was supposed to provide Africa - "the land the Internet forgot" -  with Internet service. An extension to East Africa is to be completed next year. But the promise has not been fulfilled - Internet is available, at so high a price it is unaffordable for all except a few.

• The reason, says BBC, is that 19 of 24 companies that have signed up for Sat3 are incumbent operators almost all owned by governments, and likely can exercise monopolize availability. Thus, while Sat3 costs are $2000/month for 1 MB/second traffic, the Sat3 operator has been charging as high as $25,000/month, though current rates are $10-15,000/month.

• [Something here is not adding up. Sat3 started with a 20 GB/second capability and cost $650-million according to http://www.cto-ict.org/index.php?dir=08&sd=30&partner=telkom_sa, a Commonwealth organization. The cable has a life of 25-years. The cable cannot cost $480-million a year to operate.]

• Sat3's initial 20 GB/second capacity [5.4 million phone calls]  has already been doubled to 40 GB/second. The cable has a maximum capacity of 120 GB/second.

• But even then, poor old Africa remains in the cold. In 2004, for example, one project of many that involved India had a capacity of 5.12 Terabits [India-Singapore cable] just to serve Indian companies using Singapore as a Pacific base of operations. Another India project under way involved a cable with a top capacity of over 11 Terabits.

• The Internet has proven crucial to the spread of democracy and a vital tool in exposing the misdeeds of governments. Something has to be done about Africa's Internet access.

0230 GMT March 14, 2006

· Serb Dictator and Poison He suffered from high blood pressure and had had two heart attacks. Apparently he had been taking unauthorized medicine, a powerful antibiotic used to treat leprosy and TB. The antibiotic hypes up the liver, rapidly washing out other substances, in this case the anti-high-blood-pressure- medicine he was prescribed.

· The plan seems to have been to make himself sick and be sent to Russia for treatment - something he had been demanding. Once there the Russians, who are sheltering his family, would have made sure he stayed for "treatment".

· A very stupid plan, and shame on the Russian government for supporting it and the bloody dictator.

· So in the end it may turn out that Milosevic was right: someone was indeed poisoning him, i.e., Mr. Milosevic himself.

· As to how he got the medicine: Mr. Milosevic seems to have been subjected to light security. He was kept segregated from other Balkan defendants, but had his own cell and his own office - to which he had a key. He was permitted conjugal visits. As they say, connect the dots.

· Saddam Revolutionary Court Judge Says He Signed Execution Orders for the 148 accused of conspiring to kill Saddam and he acted within the law. A proper trial took place; accused had lawyers. The prosecution says no trial took place.

· So, unsurprisingly, the judge kept pressing the witness: did you really actually try all 148? Accused: Yes. Judge: How did you fit so many in court? Accused: those who did not fit in the cage were allowed to stand outside. Judge: But how did you try so many people in two weeks? Accused: they confessed to acting at Iran's behest. Judge: Are you saying all 148 participated in the shooting? Accused: The confessions were confirmed.

· The prosecutor repeatedly asked: How could 148 people have appeared before the court when some had already died during interrogation, according to intelligence documents? Accused repeatedly said: they were all present.

· Finally, the accused threw up his hands and said [from London Times]: "It is so strange and surprising that someone might die in interrogation?"

• "Is it strange and surprising? Is that what you’re saying?" said Mr Abdel-Rahman [the judge] in disbelief.
• "This shows that the defendants themselves were not referred before the court, only their papers. And the death sentences were based solely on those papers," al-Moussawi [the prosecutor] argued.
• Comment Well, folks, the sound you heard there was the accused himself springing the trapdoor of his gallows. More than 50 people died under interrogation so there couldn't have been 148 present.
• We, among others, were very critical of the manner in which the trial was being conducted prior to the arrival of the new judge. This new judge is one tough coot. He orders unruly accused down, ejects them if neccessary, threatens to appoint new defense lawyers if the defense lawyers walk out to boycott proceedings, and keeps asking questions himself. He wore Saddam down to the point that Saddam incriminated himself by saying he ordered the executions.
• Now he has worn down the judge of that alleged court, who has incriminated himself - and that's independent of Saddam's testimony where the dictator said in effect: "Leave these other people alone, I'm responsible, I gave the orders" Since he gave the execution orders - and there are comments on intelligence papers in his own handwriting - where was the question of an independent trial.

· UK To Withdraw 800 Iraq Troops in part because of the need to free troops for the increased contribution for Afghanistan.

· Personally, we don't blame the Brits for cutting and running. Only 31% of the public now supports the March 2003 invasion, down from two thirds. The British, even the ones who are solidly pro-American, in the government and in the public, feel they were taken for a ride over the WMD issue. Because the Brits kept a low profile, wanting to minimize casualties - and because they thought they knew how to do counter-insurgency as opposed to those charging elephants, the Americans - the bad guys rule the British sector. To take them on would require more troops than the 4 battalion groups the British have been keeping; not only is there no way in which more troops are going to be OK'd by the public, right now squashing the baddies would involve one tough fight. The Brits will never shrink from a fight - look at the Falklands - but one cant blame them for not wanting to get killed for a deal they don't agree with.

· And in Afghanistan the British can make a major contribution. Afghanistan needs troops for stability operations as much as Iraq. The Brits will be in their element: clarity as to who the bad guys are, small units operations, no Americans sitting on their head, lots of tromping up and down mountains, a favorite Brit thing - what's not to love about going to Afghanistan?

0230 GMT March 13, 2006

• Please Don't Interrupt Your Nap as this is another story about the failure of negotiations between Iran and someone else on the N-issue, this time with the Russians, who have been functioning under the conceit they can talk the Iranians into accepting controls on their N-program.
• The Russians first wanted to sell Iran enriched fuel for the civil reactors under construction. Iran said no. The Russians then said, lets enrich the fuel jointly in Russia, you can get experience with the civilian technology and we'll provide safeguards the world can trust. Iran said no.
• Then just to make sure everyone got the point - we just love those Iranians, give 'em enough rope and they'll hang themselves - the Iranians said that any Russian proposal that involves Iran giving up control of any part of the nuclear fuel cycle is unacceptable.
• So there you are, Moscow, hope you get it now - the Iranians cannot speak clearer than they have.
• So not only did the Iranians sabotage the one country that was trying to help them in avoiding UN Security Council action, they said (from London Times):  "Mostafa Pourmohammadi, the Interior Minister, threatened to use oil as a weapon if the UN imposed sanctions on Iran over its nuclear programme. “If (Security Council members) politicise our nuclear case, we will use any means. We are rich in energy resources. We have control over the biggest and the most sensitive energy route of the world,” he said, referring to the Strait of Hormuz, south of the country.
• In case our readers were wondering why they and us are not diplomats, consider this: "Konstantin Kosachev, the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Russian State Duma, gave warning that the Iranian stance could “radicalise the nature of the United Nations Security Council discussion”.
• Don't you love that restrained turn of phrase - could "radicalize the nature of the (UNSC) discussion"? None of us could have come up with that.
• Al Qaeda Kicked Out of Somalia Reader Mike Thompson sends an article from www.strategypage.com saying the locals have kicked out AQ from a camp the latter established near the Kenya border.
• Local tribes were concerned with AQ's interference in their interpretation of Islam, which has evolved to suit local conditions. They were also concerned about the lure AQ had for their youth - for all the talk about ideological motivation and so on, the money AQ pays is a big lure in poor countries where young men have no prospects.
• Also, the locals didn't want to attract unwanted attention from the US.
• Our information is the US was perfectly aware of the camp. Its reasonable to suppose money changed hands and the tribals kept their bargain
• Ethiopia Blame Eritrea For Explosions CNN says that there were several explosions in Addis Ababa last week, and the government has blamed its bitter rival Eritrea. This nation was part of an Ethiopian federation till it was annexed by Addis Ababa. A 30-year civil war followed and Eritrea won its indepednence and international recognition. In 1998 there was a two-year border war with heavy casualties on both sides. A UN force is keeping the peace between the two nations. Eritrea supports the Ormoro Liberation Front, a breakaway group that wants independence for southwest Ethiopia.
• In fairness, we  must note that Ethiopians opposed to their government say it often uses the OLF as a scapegoat to hide its growing unpopularity.
• Valerie Plame Case Revisted The Chicago Tribune has an investigative reporting story showing that Valerie Plame's identity as a covert CIA operative was not blown by someone within the US Administration leaking the information to the press because her identity was not a secret.
• This is a different twist on the story from our information, which is she was blown by Aldritch Ames to the Russians. Subsequently she was pulled from covert work and sent to work at CIA HQ. As such, we have argued, she was not covert at the time someone in the US administration leaked the story to the press. Thus no crime was committed.
• What Chicago Tribune has found is that Ms. Plame at no time was a covert agent. She worked from US embassies. We have to explain that since there is no CIA Section in an embassy, as opposed to political, economic, military etc sections, CIA personnel are provided "cover" (think Austin Powers) usually in the political or economic sections.  Anybody with half a brain can figure out who the CIA people are. Not only is it no secret inside a US embassy, it is no secret to the host government or the opposition.
• Any suggestion that Ms. Plame was a true covert agent - those are the Non Official Cover people is incorrect because you cannot be a NOC after you have been posted to embassies.
• Now interestingly, the Special Prosecutor has already said that he has no intention of basing his case on any alleged harm to Ms. Plame's career, to the CIA, or to national security. His case will be that an aide to the US president lied to him about how and when he learned about Ms. Plame's CIA employment and therefore committed perjury and obstruction of justice.
• But wait: this prosecutor was appointed to track down who leaked Ms. Plame's name: revealing the name of a covert agent is against US law. So it turns out she wasn't a covert agent, so why is the prosecutor now saying the case he is making has nothing to do with Ms. Plame, but with someone lying to him about how they got to know about her?
• For this we pay taxes? Give the prosecutor $20 for cab fare and send him home. This is absolutely ridiculous. There are enough clowns in Washington already: we don't need another one. 

0230 GMT March 12, 2006

· The Butcher of the Balkans Is Dead Slobodan Milosevic was found dead in his cell at the Hague in the Netherlands. He apparently was entertaining a fantasy he was being poisoned; more likely he died of stress aggravating his heart ailment. The stress would have been made worse,  presumably, by the knowledge his trial was coming to and end and there could have been just one verdict.

· We are not tempted to say that Slobodan cheated justice. Being taken to the Netherlands, housed in a comfortable cell, fed well and looked after, with access to the outside world, books, and the like was not justice. Nor would the life sentence he was looking at been justice.

· Justice could have been done only by the hangman; the Europeans don't believe in the death penalty. Supposedly it shows how exquisitely fair and human-rights-minded they are, in comparison to the barbarous Americans. It could equally be said it shows how cowardly they are.

· Be that as it may, we are struck by the fact that Slobodan could have died at any point in "several hours" before he was found dead. This means he was not under constant surveillance. Its easy to condemn the manner in which the US guards Saddam - we think he's being treated too gently. Nonetheless, this wouldn't have happened had Slobodan been in US custody. Unless, of course, he died peacefully in his sleep. In which case we'd have to agree: he cheated justice.

· Another Pakistan Army Attack on Militants Perhaps 30 are dead, says Jang of Pakistan, after Pakistan Army gunships attacked the compound of a pro-Taliban cleric after learning militants had gathered there.

· Doubtless many of the dead will be civilians. The blame, however, should be put squarely where it belongs: on the militants, who hide and work from within the civilian population. The Pakistan Army is not obliged to care more about the safety of civilians than the militants, whose relatives the civilians would have been.

· 29 Civilians Killed in Baluchistan Land Mine Explosion A trolley drawn by a tractor - a common method of village transport in South Asia - hit an anti-tank mine planted along a Baluchistan road. The trolley carried 35 people of a wedding party, mostly women, children, and elderly men. All those killed were Baluchis.

· We have repeatedly condemned attacks against civilians by Baluch insurgents, even if can understand why several tribes are in revolt against the government. This method of warfare is not just cowardly, it is counter-productive. The victims belong to a particular tribe. Whatever this tribe's position on the insurgency, it now has no choice but to take revenge against those it believes may have planted the mine. None of this can help the Baluch cause.

· Trouble On Transdinester-Ukraine Border Tass of Russia has a report so laconic on the situation as to be useless. Transdinester is the breakaway region of Moldova that is supported by Russia. Apparently Ukraine has announced new customs duties and/or customs laws, and Transdinester traffic into Ukraine is halted.

· None of this looks particularly serious, but without knowing the background its hard to comment on the significance of the news.

· Evo Morales and Ms. Rice Have Friendly Meeting says Reuters reporting from Bolivia. They discussed the coca situation and other issues. Apparently Mr. Morales has earlier asked farmers to respect an existing law on how much coca they can plant.

· We are glad Mr. Morales has taken our advice to use persuasion with the US regarding Bolivia's coca concerns. The only problem is that we didn't know he had moderated his position somewhat when we wrote about the dispute yesterday. Obviously Mr. Morales stepped into the future, saw our advice which we would write, and then stepped back. No telling where all that chewing coca leaves for breakfast will get one.

· Algeria In Heavy Duty Arms Deal With Russia In return for canceling Algeria's $4.7 debt to Russia, the former has agreed to buy $7.5 billion worth of weapons in one of the largest single deals involving a 3rd world nation in some time.

· Included are 40 improved MiG-29s, 20 unidentified Sukhoi fighters, 16 Yakolev trainers, 8 SA-300 batteries, and 40 T-90 tanks.

Comment: The Real Face of the Iraq Insurgency

· Tom Fox was a Quaker, a Christian sect that is about as close to pacifist/non-violence as it is possible to get. He opposed the Iraq War, and volunteered for service to help ordinary people in Iraq who were suffering the ravages of war. He was kidnapped along with 3 other workers in Iraq.

• Yesterday we learned what Mr. Fox's reward was for his devotion to peace and wish to help Iraqis: torture, followed by a bullet to the head, and a blanket in which his body was wrapped before being thrown by the wayside.
• The people who had custody of him call themselves the Swords of Righteousness Brigades. They say they want to trade the hostages for Iraqi prisoners, presumably their own men. Since there is no known case of the US releasing prisoners in exchange for hostages, and since the Iraq government will not release a single prisoner in exchange for a person who means nothing to it, we may reasonably guess that Mr. Fox's captors wanted money - the usual thing in Iraqi hostage cases. It is easy to guess that Mr. Fox's church was in no position to pay ransom, or if it was prepared to do so, was unable to pay enough or perhaps make the neccessary arrangements.
• Mr. Fox's church blames the US and British governments for what happened. That is its right.
• To us, however, the issue is that the US went into Iraq to overthrow the world's second biggest dictator. We believe it is the duty of America to humanity to dispose of people like Saddam. After he was overthrown, there was no reason why Iraqis could not have gotten on with their lives. No reason except people like the Swords of Righteousness Brigades.
• The US has been extraordinarily timid in countering the Iraq insurgency for various reasons. The Iraq government has not. This is why there is hope for Iraq, because there is only one solution to people like the Swords, which is to kill them.

0230 GMT March 11, 2006

• US-Bolivia Trouble Washington Times has said US has demanded the return of high-tech equipment supplied to a CT unit of the Bolivian Army after President Morales replaced key officers. The US does not trust the replacements. President Morales has refused to return the equipment, a US officer is on his way to the CT unit's base to recover it. President Morales says the US should request the return through diplomatic channels; apparently US has a provision where it can recover equipment in an emergency without such niceties. Mr. Morales has had a lengthy meeting with the US ambassador. That indicates to us he is looking for a face-saving compromise.
• Meanwhile, we learn Mr. Morales has fired 28 top generals.
• And we further learn that Bolivia has asked the UN to remove coca from a banned substances list. The foreign minister says that coca has a high calcium and phosphorous content, and perhaps Bolivian school children should be fed coca instead of breakfast.
• Comment Now, we can understand Mr. Morales wanting to court the vote of poor farmers, who depend on coca as a cash crop. Mr. Morales himself is a coca farmer. But having your foreign minister muse about coca for school children instead of milk sounds a bit odd. Is the FM trying this diet out himself?
• The thing is that there can be a legitimate debate about the pros and cons concerning Bolivia's duty to the US in suppressing coca. Bolivia is not consuming large quantities of cocaine, the US is. The aggressive US program to spray coca fields is highly controversial for reasons it is not neccessary to discuss here. Coca is a traditional Bolivian crop. Etc. etc. But the debate has to take place in sensible fashion because ultimately Bolivia has to convince the Americans.
• If America is not convinced, given the rabid anti-drug policy that is supported by at least half of America, it will retaliate against Bolivia. So Bolivia can say: "Like we care?"
• Well, if the objective is confrontation, then we say to Bolivia: "Carry on. And where has confrontation gotten Cuba? Vietnam has a thousand times more reason to be confrontationist toward America than Cuba. Vietnam has eschewed this approach, there has been forgiveness on both sides, Hanoi and Washington are almost allies, and everyone gains, especially the people of Vietnam."
• Is It 2008 Already? asks reader Mike Thompson, who sends us interesting snippets every day. He notes that since Mrs. Clinton will lose the red states in 2008, she has to carry New York, California, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and so on. if the Republican candidate is either Senator John McCain or former New York City Mayor Mr. Rudy Guliani, she will have trouble in the Midwest.
• As for New York and California: Current polls say half of New York State voters, including 3 in 10 Democrats, will not vote for her. In California a majority of voters say the country is ready for a woman president and that 47 to 42 they would vote for her.
• We might add that Mrs. Clinton is the Republicans' Dream Candidate. They are certain they can defeat her handily and that dislike of her will be much greater than the anger against Republican candidates on account of Mr. Bush's mistakes.
• Letter From Brian Brown

"In regards to your update of March 10,  the statement that the US  "cooperated heavily with Britain for the latter's program" is not quite accurate.  The Manhattan Project  included significant British involvement, so Britain was entitled to share in the results (i.e. the knowledge of how to produce an atomic bomb)." 

• Reader Brown is, of course, correct. There is no implication that the US did anything wrong in working with the UK on N-weapons, or that the USSR did anything wrong in helping China. Our point was that we cannot judge western help to Israel in the light of present-day standards. It is no big deal that assistance was given, albeit covertly.
• We have to say, though, according to reader Gareth Bowman, some of the UK's help to Israel was given by individual government servants working without government authorization. Mr. Bowman sent us a very interesting email on this, we've asked him to amplify his points for those of us who are not familiar with the workings of the British government of the time.
• Latest Zarqawi Rumor - completely unconfirmed. An Iraqi weekly says Zarqawi is headed for the Iranian border via Kurdistan, enroute to Afghanistan.

0230 GMT March 10, 2006

· Israeli General Discusses Iran N-strike Options A former Israeli chief of general staff discussed Israeli options in preempting Iran's N-weapons program and indicated an attack against "dozens" of targets presented no particular problem. He noted Israel could not entirely eliminate Iran's program, but could set it back by many years. Nonetheless, he said an operation should be conducted jointly with the US and Europe. He was confident Israel could counter Iranian missiles that might be launched in retaliation.

· A few weeks ago we conducted our own study and decided for Israel to go at it alone was militarily feasible but politically undesirable. That's fairly much what the Israeli general is saying.

· Washington Post May Have Been Partially Correct when it wrote, after the Samarra Mosque bombing, that Iraq was understating deaths in the resultant violence. While it has not been able to back up its assertion of 1300 killed at that time, an unidentified official told the Post that the Baghdad morgue where victims of violence are taken had been told not to report execution-style killings.

· While one source does not a story prove, we learn from reader Mike Thompson that persons allied to the Sadr militia - which has done most of the Baghdad killings - are alleged to have sufficient clout to force an undercount. The ministry involved and Sadr sources deny they have the power. Our information is that they very much do have the power - we have no proof it has been used, but given what Sadr was up to, the incentive to minimize deaths is obvious.

· Conversely, we have to note a point some Iraqi officials are making - we've made it earlier ourselves. The morgue has no way of telling which killings are political, and which are criminal. Given that Iraq is a tribal society, vendettas are rampant. And is the killing, say, of a former Saddam official who happens to be Sunni in retaliation for what he did to a particular family or clan a vendetta or an indication of Shia-Sunni violence?

· Meanwhile, Iraq has hanged 14 insurgents. These executions were the second; last year 3 ordinary criminals were hanged. All we can say is: good. The only way to combat an insurgency of the virulence Iraq is experiencing is to liberally execute the guilty. Americans love to talk about the violation of human rights in Iraq. The Washington is of a size, population-wise, with Baghdad. If insurgents were shooting and blowing up 20-30 people a day in Washington, we can assure our non-American readers within two weeks there would be martial law and shoot-on-sight orders in the American capital. Then the Chinese could indict the Americans for human rights abuses.

· 10 Milligrams Of Plutonium? We find ourselves strangely unable to get worked up about a Times London story saying that the UK shipped 10 milligrams of plutonium - a hundredth of a gram - to Israel and thus helped the latter with its nuclear program.

· The story of how the UK, France, and the US among others helped Israel to develop its bomb program definitely needs to be told one day. Until India exploded a weapon in 1974, the rules used to be much looser: the Russians practically gave China its N-weapons program; the US cooperated heavily with Britain for the latter's program, and both provided assistance of various kinds to France's program.

· But 10 milligrams looks very much like it was intended for scientific experimentation. So tiny a quantity can have no relevance to a N-weapons program.

· Japan-US ABM Interceptor Test Conducted On March 6 the US cruiser Lake Eire successfully fired a modified Standard 3 ABM being developed jointly by the two countries, reports Kyodo News Agency. As nearly as we can make out this was a flight test. This joint version of the Standard 3 will be deployed by Japan starting 2008.

0230 GMT March 9, 2006

· IAEA Refers Iran To UN Security Council reports Jerusalem Post. A debate on the referral may begin next week.

· We advise readers to ignore the referral for now. At this point the odds of the UN doing something substantial to punish Iran are non-existent.

· All we can hope for, based on the situation as of now, is that Iran does something stupid that forces the UN to act. On the one hand, this may not seem like much of a plan. Surely Iran will have the sense to understand referral is a very serious threshold that been passed, and surely it will make nice. On the other hand, it seems Iran is run by a government that is pushing for confrontation, probably as a way of diverting the attention of Iranians while it consolidates power. A stupid move may be neccessary to ratchet up tension, particularly as Iranians are starting to worry about the consequences of their government's stance.

· For example, the Iranian threat to inflict pain on the US if America acts against Iran is helpful: this kind of language will enrage Americans. But nonetheless we should be clear that after the Iraq fiasco, the US is in no position to undertake unilateral action against Iran. That includes action with partial world support such as happened in 2003.

· DPRK Tests Surface-to-Air Missiles Normally this would not be worth reporting. What makes it noteworthy is the White House spokesperson takes the occasion to blather on concerns about DPRK's missile program.

· We are second to none in labeling DPRK's missile programs a threat to the United States. America's case, however, is not served by someone getting confused between SAMs, which are purely defensive, and the medium, intermediate, and long range missiles which could be armed with nuclear heads.

· There have been stories put out by a Japanese news service that the SAMs were fired by accident.

· Hilary Clinton To Run In 2008 We are probably the last people to know this, but we learn from a Washington source that Hilary Clinton is going to make her presidential bid in 2008.

· She has collected $30-million, ostensibly for her Senate reelection bid in 2006. Actually, she faces no credible opponent and far from spending that money, is expected to up it to $50-million by election time.

· That puts her in excellent shape to raise another $50- to $100-million by 2008.

· Remember that by amassing money in advance a prospective candidate can block challengers. Backers will not give money to a candidate they fear is too far behind in the money raising race. They would rather give the money to the front-runner, who then becomes even more of a front-runner.

· You Wouldn't Think This Would Happen in Japan The Japanese military has been so stingy with issuing computers to its members that 67,000 (yes, folks, sixty-seven thousand) personnel bring their own computers to work, reports Asahi Shimbun of Japan.

· Many of the personal computers have file sharing programs. So top secret stuff has been leaking to the web.

· New computers are being being purchased by the military.

· China Issues 7th Human Rights Report On US Read this if you need a few laughs http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-03/09/content_4279166.htm.

· We should clarify the issue is not the correctness of the facts: the facts are mostly from the US itself. The laughs lie in just which country is listing the violations, such as: (direct quote)

•  "There exist serious infringements upon personal rights and freedoms by law enforcement and judicial organs in the United States," says the record.
•     Secret snooping is prevalent and illegal detention occurs from time to time. The recently disclosed Snoopgate scandal has aroused keen attention of the public in the United States, according to the record.
•     After the Sept. 11 Attacks, the U.S. President has for dozens of times authorized the National Security Agency and other departments to wiretap some domestic phone calls.
•     With this authorization, the National Security Agency may conduct surveillance over phone calls and e-mails of 500 U.S. citizens at a time.
•     The document quotes media reports as saying that from 2002 through 2004, there were at least 287 cases in which the FBI agents were suspected of illegally conducting electronic surveillance.
•     On Jan. 9, 2006, a spokeswoman for the U.S. Bureau of Customs and Border Protection announced that in the "anti-terrorism" fight, the U.S. customs has the right to open and inspect incoming private letters, which again sparked protests, according to the record.
•     "Police abuse is also very common in the United States," the report notes.
•     It quotes a report of the Los Angeles Times on July 14, 2005 as saying that Los Angeles police shot dead the 19-month-old daughter of a suspect when trying to arrest the suspect, which triggered public outcry.
• Also noted as human rights violations: New Orleans police abandoning their posts during Katrina, US homeless, income inequality - we don't think China should be talking about that because its far worse in China, disparity in earnings between men and women, Mayor Bloomberg's election.
• This last criticism we found particularly hilarious: Mr. Bloomberg, says China, spent $77-million on his election, or $100 per vote. All true - we checked. But PRC doesn't allow free elections so where's the comparison? And how is spending your own money to get yourself reelected a human rights violation?

0230 GMT March 8, 2006

· Miranshah, NWFP We are deeply troubled by an analysis of recent events in Pakistan's North West Frontier Province. Mr. Bill Roggio, who has emerged as an informed and astute observer of the Iraq insurgency, has given his take regarding the Miranshah fighting in Analysis, and the situation is worse than we thought.

· First, we need to explain our Pakistan sources focus on the India border. We have been recently succeeded in establishing contact with anti-government elements in Baluchistan, but for a lack of resources we have been unable to develop our own sources in the NWFP. Additionally, a critical Afghan source recently became non-operational.

· Second, our South Asia sources are very busy; they do their best for us but they have to meet bills the same as anyone and when there is a real crisis on, we do not get priority for their reports.

· So we need not apologize that Mr. Roggio, an American, has a better understanding of NWFP matters at this time than we do.

· Your editor has put out to his contacts - but has yet to get a reply - a question that has been bugging him since the first news of the fighting at Miranshah. A Pakistan Army brigade happens to have its base at this town. Even if the brigade was away for some reason - and we have not been able to find any reason as yet - hundreds of troops remain behind when a brigade deploys. Additionally, the town has a permanent garrison of Frontier Corps troops.

· Then how is it that the militants calmly walked into the town and took it over? Mr. Roggio has an answer which gives us no satisfaction.

· Further, why is it the brunt of the fighting has fallen on the paramilitary Frontier Corps while the Army has been using artillery and gunships? Where is the Pakistani infantry?

· We have been hearing rumors which we have been unable to confirm that in the fight against the militants the Pakistan Army has not done well, for many reasons. The ties between the Army and the Taliban continue; the militants have many sympathizers among the troops; and President Musharraf is hated and seen to be doing the Americans' bidding. Operational security is not, then, what it it should be. Further, the Army has consistently overrated its tactical abilities and underestimated the militants. Partly its arrogance, partly it seems to be a loss of professionalism. And when in combat, the Army is simply not performing with the neccessary determination.

· We sincerely hope that the rumors are wrong. We have a high regard for the Pakistan Army; moreover, the battle against the militants has to be fought by the Army and Frontier Corps. It does not bode well for anyone except the enemy in the Terror War if the Pakistan Army cannot, or will not, do its job.

· Afghanistan Starts Plowing Opium Crop Under The acreage sown this year is 320,000 acres, less than the peak 500,000 acres in 2004 but more than last year. 500 tractors have been deployed to destroy plants in their green shoot stage.

· The Taliban is said to have banned poppy cultivation; we've heard it did so after stashing years worth of stocks so the price would go up and it would profit - Afghanistan had almost no government income in the Taliban years, one reason Osama and his $10/million year were so welcome. Be that as it may, the Taliban is working the opium trade; most of the violence in Helmand Province, where 40% of the Afghan opium comes from, is on account of the trade and has nothing to do with opposition to the Afghan government or Allied troops.

· As always the problem is economic: in a country as poor as Afghanistan, most farmers grow opium to survive, not to make fat profits.

· CNN notes that Thailand required 25 years to nearly eradicate opium cultivation; Afghanistan will take longer.

· Rumsfeld Says Media Made Up Iraq Civil War Threat Direct quotes from his press conference yesterday:

• From what I've seen thus far, much of the reporting in the U.S. and abroad has exaggerated the situation, according to General Casey. The number of attacks on mosques, as he pointed out, had been exaggerated. The number of Iraqi deaths had been exaggerated. The behavior of the Iraqi security forces had been mischaracterized in some instances. And I guess that is to say nothing of the apparently inaccurate and harmful reports of U.S. military conduct in connection with a bus filled with passengers in Iraq.
• Interestingly, all of the exaggerations seem to be on one side. It isn't as though there simply have been a series of random errors on both sides of issues. On the contrary, the steady stream of errors all seem to be of a nature to inflame the situation and to give heart to the terrorists and to discourage those who hope for success in Iraq.
• And then I notice today that there's been a public opinion poll reporting that the readers of these exaggerations believe Iraq is in a civil war -- a majority do, which I suppose is little wonder that the reports we've seen have had that effect on the American people.
• General Casey has reported that overall levels of violence have not increased substantially as a result of the Golden Dome bombing.
• Mike Thompson says a journalist asked Mr. Rumsfeld point-blank: Are you saying that this poll and that what you call the rush toward declaring civil war in Iraq, is that the result of intentional misreporting of the situation there? Mr. Rumsfeld did not answer.
• A follow-up question was asked: Well, do you believe that the media's been duped by the situation or doesn't understand it or what?
• Mr. Rumsfeld's reply: All I'm doing is reporting. I'm just reporting the facts. (Laughter.) The facts are as I've stated them. You'll have to draw your own conclusions about it.
• Rummy at his best. wish there was some way of keeping him without having him as Secretary Defense, a position he has forfeited after the Iraq fiasco.

0230 GMT March 7, 2006

· US-Iraq Intercept Powerful Road Bombs from Iran Mike Thompson alerts us to an ABC News story saying that the US-Iraq have intercepted a shipment of even more powerful roadside bombs than Iran is alleged by the British to be shipping to Iraq. The bombs were caught at the Iran border.

· Mike Thompson asks "isn't this an act of war?"

· Well, yes it is, and a direct one. But Iran has been instrumental in the killing of American soldiers since at least 2004. Moqtada Sadr's militia gets its money and arms from Iran, the roadside bombs are old news, Iran is giving refuge to Al Qaeda leaders who do business from there, and other insurgent groups are also getting money/arms/guidance from Iran.

· The issue is not one of war: Iran is at war with the US. The issue is rather: is the US willing to come out and speak the truth to its people and then do something, or are these casualties to be shrugged off as the cost of doing business in the region?

· Iran Suspends Voluntary Cooperation With IAEA as of last Sunday.

· IAEA Chairman says he is hopeful of reaching agreement with Iran in a week or so, reports Xinhua of China.

· Agreement on what? That Pepsi is preferable to Coke or that McDonald's is better than Burger King (or the other way around)? That the IAEA Chairman and President of Iran are going to use the same brand toilet paper? That "Brokeback Mountain" should have received Best Picture Oscar instead of "Crash"? That they will not fight over which jellybeans taste better, the red ones or the yellow ones? It has to be something this profound, or else the IAEA would not have made an announcement.

· In case the latest ex-Mrs. R. is reading this: and you accuse the editor of not being in touch with reality!

· Hamas Reduces President Abbas' Powers causing a rift with Fateh, his political party, and diminishing chances for a government of national unity.

· Meanwhile, Islamic Jihad continues its bombing campaign - 2 teenagers are the latest victims; and Israel continues killing militants - 4 die in an air strike.

· Miranshah, NWFP The figures for militants killed have gone up: the Nation of Pakistan  is giving figures as high as 120. Sporadic fighting is still taking place.

· We have an orbat for Pakistan army and Frontier Corps troops in the region; unfortunately, we had to pay to get it done for us so we cannot publish it free here.

· Speaking of free, as always we are full of admiration for John Pike who runs www.globalsecurity.org. He spends a great deal of time raising money, doesn't pay himself properly, and produces high quality product all of which is free to the public. He has been doing this for years. A true public servant.

· Why China Doesn't Revalue The Yuan Finally its been explained to us. Given how much China imports, we couldn't figure out why PRC wasn't allowing the yuan to float or at least allow a substantial revaluation. Its true your exports suffer, but your imports become cheaper. The problem, however, lies entirely elsewhere.

· China's farmers are not doing well to begin with - development has passed them by. If the yuan appreciates, food imports will become cheaper, Chinese farmers' incomes will fall, and trouble in large capital letters will result. This is why China is being so mulishly stubborn.

· So basically American wages are being pushed down, in part because of cheap Chinese exports, so that China's farmers don't revolt.

· There: doesn't that make you feel good, that Americans by their sacrifice are keeping the Communists in power? And helping them amass huge foreign exchange reserves which they can use against America, for example by buying the weapons and technology they will use one day to dethrone America?

· If You Worry About California Falling Into The Pacific here's something of interest. Times London says archeologists have discovered that almost 2 millennia before the AD79 eruption that destroyed Pompeii, Vesuvius erupted far more violently. A similar explosion would directly kill 3 million people in the Naples area, and indirectly more people further out - for example, 13 kilometers from the center of Naples people would asphyxiate because fine soot particles would suffocate them. The earlier explosion hurled rocks out at speed of 240 kmph.

· But most people survived because they heeded the rumblings and got out. Today loss of life would be light assuming evacuation went according to plan. 

· Mysterious Shia Group Appears in Palestine which happens to be all Sunni, in last few days. This story is based on a Jerusalem Post exclusive.

· Hamas says the new group looks out to oust it from power, and that it is likely a Hezbollah/Iran group. The head of the group says he will work for good relations with Iran Shias in Iraq, but that it is has been formed because of the growing threat to Muslims, not to challenge Hamas.

· Jerusalem Post says the new group is causing dread in Palestine: people are saying there are already too many groups there.

· So, someone please tell us again how Iran is exercising restraint in the region and if the US/West attacks all heck can break loose? All heck is breaking loose, Iran has already declared war in Iraq and is spreading the war into Palestine, which it will use to launch attacks against Israel.

· US Policy On Iran: Time To Start Praying? After you read this Times of London story on the divisions within US policymakers on Iran, you may conclude that we had best get on our knees and start praying, because few other alternatives exist.

· http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,11069-2071918,00.html says that British MPs visiting Washington to learn America's thinking on Iraq were met with at least three different views: State Department - take it cautiously, dont rush; John Bolton at the UN, we may presume he represents the neocons - Chapter 7 referral asking for authorization to go to war; Pentagon - throw the grenade into the Security Council and see what happens.

· Can you imagine what impression the MPs are taking back? The first thing they are going to tell Mr. Tony Blair: Don't touch this with a bargepole, run for your life.

· The British noted another line of thinking which we whole heartedly support. The CIA says: "don't posture because we don't know what the UN Security Council will do. It could be a rerun of 2003." Well, we don't know about the UNSC, but we absolutely agree with the "don't posture" bit. Washington, make up your mind and then act. If you can't make up your mind, don't say a word, do nothing. Meanwhile, we at Orbat.com don't want a repeat of Iraq.

· Now, this prayer bit: do we get down on the right knee first or the left? Or do we kind of hurl ourselves forward prostrating ourselves? Can the editor stand, he is apt to be very stiff and bending is hard on him? We suppose multi-denominational prayer is okay, America is a multi-ethnic society now. We have many other questions....

· Miranshah, NWFP was calmer on Sunday says Jang of Pakistan, as fighting died down. The army now claims 70 militants killed; locals say there are 110 dead, which would include the civilians. Five security forces personnel have been killed.

· Two renegade clerics who are leading some of the militants spoke over their satellite phones to deny they have sustained serious casualties. They claim to have captured 15 Frontier Corps troops and to have downed a helicopter.

· Locals began leaving Miranshah as fighting petered out. The Army said it had not called for the civilians to leave because it wanted them to fight the militants.

· This is criminal behavior on the part of whichever commander gave such orders. It amounts to deliberate endangerment of civilians and to use them, against their will, as combatants. It violates the law of war; the Pakistanis may, however, well say this is an internal security operation not war and as such no law has been broken. Whatever the explanation, Orbat.com is shocked and registers its strong disapproval. We have supported the Pakistani authorities in their drive to get militants out of the NWFP; this refusal to warn civilians to leave we cannot support.

· BBC has a different take: it is being told that there is only a lull as the Pakistan Army moves up to prepare for a major offensive.

0230 GMT March 5, 2006

· Heavy Fighting in Miranshah, Pakistan Jang of Pakistan quoting sources from various villages says up to 100 people, mainly militants, may be dead in heavy fighting in the frontier town and surrounding villages.

· The military is under instructions not to talk to the press, but one source says 3 Pakistan Frontier Corps troops have been killed. Adding to the difficulties in getting information is that militants occupied the telephone exchange at Miranshah; Pakistan attack helicopters blasted the building so the exchange is down.

· The fighting began when militants ambushed an army convoy and the security forces retaliated.

· BBC adds: the Pakistan Army says it has killed 46 militants; locals say there are at least 70 dead. The ambush was in retaliation for the earlier engagement in which the Pakistan Army attacked a band of 40 returning from Afghanistan. The militants attacked an army post, were beaten off, and then "hundreds" stormed Miranshah.

· Two things stand out. One, when the Pakistan Army wants to crack down, it cracks down. Our South Asia correspondent has made this point before. Two, the militants have become so entrenched, numerous, and bold that they think they can challenge the security forces head on for control of a district town.

· This is a very stupid attitude: the Pakistan Army is well-trained, highly disciplined, and deploys substantial firepower. But it goes to show how much the militants have been left alone.

· Readers are advised to think in terms of 40 militants killed - that would still be a considerable number. In these engagements civilians suffer a heavy toll and understandably, just as the militants exaggerate the number of civilians killed, the security forces underreport. For one thing, militants live with the civilians and fight from their houses. For another, this engagement erupted without advance notice. Normally the military announces they are to commence operations, giving civilians a chance to clear out.

· US Drops Opposition To Iran-Pakistan-India Gas Pipeline In a surprise move, President Bush announced in Pakistan yesterday that the US would not oppose the pipeline because it recognizes the region's need for energy. Earlier, the US had threatened sanctions if the deal went ahead.

· We congratulate the US for allowing pragmatism to rule over ideology. Both India and Pakistan are seriously energy-deficit countries; if the US had an alternative to Iran gas, it would have a moral right to pressure India and Pakistan to abandon the project. Lacking the offer of an alternative, the US would have ended up punishing two poor countries without punishing Iran: China will take whatever oil and gas Iran has to offer

· Zimbabwe Running Out Of Wheat says BBC, forcing a price increase of 30% and brining inflation to an annual rate of 600%. a loaf of bread - from the size in the BBC photograph it looks to be around 3 pounds - now costs Z$66,000, or 66 cents. Economists say inflation could hit 1000% by April.

· Till Robert Mugabe decided to ruin the country by appropriating big farms, mostly white owned, it was a food exporter. Mugabe then handed over the farms to his party faithful. Lately he has asked white farmers to return. Some will, but many are fearful, having been run out once before.

0230 GMT March 4, 2006

· Sadr Gains Legitimacy As far as we are concerned, things are going from bad to worse where this terrorist is concerned. We've related how his militia attacked mosques and murdered large numbers of Sunnis after the Samarra attack, then before he could be declared outlaw, he jumped in to tell the Sunnis he would protect them.

· Now his militia is helping the government enforce the Baghdad curfew and protect mosques. Even the Americans seem prepared to put up with him for the sake of ending the violence.

· But folks, this has been our point all along. The man makes trouble, then convinces everyone he's the man to stop it. His militia was completely delegitimized  when it got into a losing campaign against the US military. Now its been legitimized again - obviously the government's orders that anyone other than the security force seen carrying guns would be arrested does not apply to the Mahdi militia.

· So once again, for the sake of short-term gain, this dangerous man has been given a promotion.

· Time Magazine ran a well-informed article on Sadr and concluded on a truly pathetic note. Sadr might be the man to save Iraq, says Time. Please excuse us, but isn't that what people said about our friend Adolf? And he sure saved Germany, if by saving you mean sending all Europe to death and destruction. But that isn't the usual definition of saving, and Sadr is not saving anyone.

· 3 Israelis Detained For Attack on Nazareth Church The three are one family, and the man has a history of mental illness and of making threats to attack churches. The three came into the Church of the Annunciation, considered one of Christianity's holiest sites because the birth of Jesus was foretold here, and exploded firecrackers.

· Angry crowds demonstrated and prevented the police from taking away the family for several hours.

· The family consists of the father, his wife who is Christian, and a daughter.

· Iran-EU N-Talks Collapse reports Jang of Pakistan. The sun will rise in the East, reports Orbat.com. The hilarious reaction of the German foreign minister needs to be quoted:

· VIENNA: EU powers and Iran failed on Friday to strike a deal in last-ditch nuclear talks that could have blocked possible UN Security Council action over Western fears Tehran is secretly developing atomic weapons.

· "Time is running out," German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said after two hours of talks in Vienna that had been requested by Iran’s top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani. "If we want success we have to act now," he said.

· We want to tell the German FM in our opinion he is not just six beers short of a six-pack, but that he is also a Vimp. Our sympathies to the people of Germany that they have to pay taxes to keep such geniuses employed. Its all part of German socialism, you know. Maybe your editor should move to Germany and claim a life pension on grounds of mental impairment. The problem is, he's never be able to compete in that department with people like the Foreign Minister.

· Ex-Congressman Randy Cunningham Gets 8 Years for asking for and accepting bribes. The law is the law, and because the US has something called sentencing guidelines, judges have little discretion in sentencing. They have to use given formulas; the crimes were input into the formula, and 8 years, 4 months came out.

· Nonetheless, while recognizing the judge had to do what he had to do, we personally think this is excessive. Vietnam War hero Cunningham's crime was not that he took bribes: every single member of Congress does. His crime was taking them outside the framework of legalized bribery Congress has set up for itself.

· The Americans can be quite practical on occasion. They correctly figured that the cost of election means money is going to be passed no matter what the law says. So better to set up rules, so at least the donations can be tracked and made known to the public. So we're not attacking the system as such, and we do realize a lot of people are for punishing Cunningham severely precisely because he was a Congressman till he resigned on pleading guilty.

· Still, we'd hoped he get off lighter. People forget a year in an American jail is like 2-3 years in normal time - the lower figure is if you're younger, the higher if you're older.

· Afghans Reclaim Their Heroes Blogger Bhasker Dasgupta kindly updated us on an interesting development. Readers may know that the Pakistanis name their missiles after men who are particularly hated in India because of the enormous crimes they committed in their conquest of South Asia - which included Pakistan. So equally these men - Mahmud Ghaznawi, Ahmad Shah Abdali and Shahabuddin Ghauri - victimized the ancestors of Pakistanis.

· No matter - that isn't the point of Mr. Dasgupta's note. Turns out the Afghans have told the Pakistanis, look, if you're going to take the names of our heroes, please associate them with peace and love things and not with nasty old missiles. For, of course, these men were from modern day Afghanistan and not from Pakistan.

0230 GMT March 3, 2006

· India Agrees To Separate Civil and Military N-Programs to gain US aid for the civil program. India built a number of reactors that are not open to the IAEA as India is not a signatory to the NPT. 14 such reactors will go under inspection for the first time. Six other reactors, including some sued for research, are outside of the ambit of the deal.

· The deal will face very tough going in the US Congress because the vast and influential US non-proliferation lobby sees the deal as rewarding India despite the latter having gone nuclear. The problem is the non-proliferation people can't disarm China, which is India's major concern. If China can be accepted as a nuclear state - it first tested only in 1964 - and if UK/France can be accepted as nuclear states, then logically India has also to be accorded that status.

· The non-proliferation people do not, of course, realize how fortunate they are to get this deal from India. While the deal serves clear US purposes - getting into at least one part of India's reactor program, something it has not been able to do till now - its less clear what India gets. The US is no longer world leader in civilian nuclear technology, which India is free to buy from anyone, including France and Russia. This is another controversy we've kept out of because we don't think we have anything useful to say.

· Venzuela-Brazil-Argentina-Uruguay gas pipeline agreement has been signed. A letter in yesterday's Washington Post says the agreement, touted by Venezuela's president as solidifying South American unity to reduce America's influence in the region, makes no economic sense.

· The letter says Venezuela does not have extra gas: its gas fields are associated with its oil fields, and it has to pump gas back into the grounds to maintain oil pressure. The expense of the pipeline means at the end of the line gas will cost the equivalent of $110/barrel of oil. There is also the issue of environment: the pipeline is to run through the heart of the Amazon, which is already under great environmental threat.

· 50 Congo Army Troops In Joint UN Operation Mutiny forcing suspension of the operation again rebels in Ituri, NE Congo. The troops returned to their base. At one point they fired on a UN helicopter bringing in the senior Congo commander for the area.

· Poppy Area Falls by 48% in Afghanistan says BBC. That's the good news, and quite unexpected because everything we've read in recent months has involved much weeping and wailing about the growing opium trade. The not so good news is that the weather was so good that yields went up, so output fell only by 10% over 2004. Preliminary indications are that the area sown may increase in 2006.

· Korean Generals Meet Following up on meetings held between ROK and DPRK generals in 2004 to reduce tension along the DMZ, Xinhua of China says senior officers from both sides are meeting at Panmunjom.

· Specific issues are security of the two inter-Korea rail lines that have been linked together, one in the west and one in the east - traffic is yet to begin - and reducing tension at sea.

· We read the other day there is a serious proposal to delineate a special manufacturing zone that will include territory from both sides. The article did not say so, but the inference is obvious that this could be a carefully limited test of integration of the two countries. Integrate they will; the question is only if DPRK is going to be sensible and understand it holds no cards and its entire power elite will have to be shunted off to old folks homes.

· Correction: Goodbye Saddam Hussein We said on March 2nd that Saddam admitted to ordering the execution of 148 people from a village where his motorcade was ambushed. 96 people were hanged; 50 were died under torture; 2 were mistakenly let off. Off the 96 hanged, four were by "mistake." The children jailed till the reached 18 and then executed were additional to these totals.

0230 GMT March 2, 2006

· Goodbye Saddam Hussein The Dictator cracked up in court and said he'd ordered the execution of 148 people. It was legal, he said, for goodness sakes, they'd tried to kill him, hadn't they? He saw the bullet holes at the village himself.

· It was legal, his defense parroted.

· Are we entitled to know who wrote the law that allowed Saddam to order the execution of 148 people from one village because someone shot at him? What about the children arrested from the village who were kept jailed till they reached 18 and were then executed, with the bodies secretly disposed of at Saddam's own written instructions? And the four people "mistakenly" executed according to his secret service?  And the 50 who died under interrogation? Its all down on paper and presented in the court.

· Hmmmm. Could the person who wrote the law be Saddam Hussein? And he wrote the law by whose authority? Oh, that would be Saddam Hussein again, your honor. He was dictator, he could write any law.

· The man is a monster. The man has incriminated himself. The man is going to hang. Get this garbage out of the court and into the dump where it belongs.

· We are sure no one anticipated this development. We thought the man was tougher. Old Slobo of Yugoslavia hasn't conceded a centimeter in his war crimes trial. He's made clear he's going to fight and stall and stall and fight till he does of old age, if neccessary.

· But: fair is fair. Saddam did show some decency. He said he alone was responsible, and could the court let his co-accused alone? we're not sure that absolves them. Its equally a war crime to follow an illegal order. But as a practical matter, anyone who said "no" to Saddam would have been executed. So maybe the court should let them go on this charge and try them on other charges.

· Pakistan Says It's Killed 45 Taliban/AQ Folks, we don't want to dump on the Pakistanis just because we have nothing better to do, but why is it they seem to score these spectacular victories just when one is needed? The US president is in that part of the world and I'm sure the news will make him very happy.

· But - not to ruin the party - if there's that many bad guys in one group and they feel comfortable moving across the border at will, how many of these cockroaches are there? Hundreds at least, if not thousands. So what does that say about Pakistan's cooperation in the Terror War after near 4 1/2 years, that so many should still be roaming around freely?

· But - not to get alarmed. Even Jang of Pakistan, which is so pro-government it might as well be written by the Defense spokesperson - is a bit skeptical. It notes - quoting others, Jang would never be so disrespectful as to ask hard questions on its own, that not one body has been recovered and not one of the 15+ the government claims wounded has been captured.

· The government says it's there to kill the bad guys, not pick up bodies, and in any case they're too badly burned.

· Give us a break, someone. You always pick up the bodies, search for identification and documents, photograph everything etc etc. You need to do this for your own intelligence people, and even if you're killing roaches, to bury the bodies is the decent thing to do.

· So feel free to assume that they probably are hundreds and not thousands of baddies in the area; the Pakistanis have killed some; the rest is spin for the Great White Father. He'll give President Musharraf aka Gunga Din a pat on the head and everyone will be happy.

· Meanwhile, the locals in the area are saying: "Jihad! You Kill Our Brothers You Die". Suggestion to locals in the area: stuff a sock in it, Jeffery. How many times are you going to declare a jihad? Stop being a bore. [Note: we've used "Jeffery" instead of a proper Frontier name to show we are not racist. Our Jeffery readers should not take this personally.]

· Islamic Jihad Top Gaza Commander Dies In Car Explosion The Israelis say they had nothing to do with it. The man had survived 8 previous assassination attempts. One has to admit about the Israelis: they don't give up.

· Montenegro To Hold Independence Vote The province of Serbia was independent for 1000 years before it was joined into Yugoslavia at the end of the 1st world War, says London Times. It was also the only Balkan country not to fall to the Turks.

· Its not clear that an independence vote will succeed because a 55% majority is required and the province has large minorities.

· Meanwhile, Kosovo's future is being debated again, with independence from Serbia an option.

· Montenegro's secession from Yugoslavia would bring a logical end to the process of disintegration of the country. The Allies had good intentions in creating Yugoslavia, they wanted to stabilize the very unstable Balkans and avoid a repeat of the events that led to the Great War. It didn't work out.

· Bill and Hillary On Opposite Sides Reader Mike Thompson sends a report that says ex-President Clinton pushed for the Dubai port deal. His wife opposes it.

· Mrs. Clinton doesn't want foreigners operating US ports. Fair enough. Last we heard, the British, who owned P and O, which operated the ports, were also foreigners, and a bunch of other foreign companies operate US ports.

· More Random Facts just to cut the tension. while researching for a History Magazine article on B-47s, he came across a feat of heroism that had your editor, at least, in a cold sweat just visualizing it. The Royal New Zealand Air Force has acquired and returned to the family one of only 3 Victoria Crosses won by New Zealand aviators in World War II. Seems this particular aviator was on a bomber returning from a raid over Germany. At some point there is an engine on fire. The man crawls out on the wing, puts out the fire, gets back in, and they make it back safely. Lets just say your editor would rather die than get out on an aircraft wing at 3000 meters or whatever and then crawl forward to extinguish a fire and then crawl back.

· Another random fact. Plattsburg AFB, New York. A B-52G from Dow or Loring has missed its landing at its home base due to weather and lands at Plattsburg, its weather alternate. Its 1962; the aircraft is brand new with 300 hours on it. The base houses older aircraft, B-47s. Ground asks the crew, do you need a tractor to get you in the flight line - SAC bases tended to be pretty packed with aircraft. Heck no, says the crew, probably because they want to taxi their way in to show off their new plane. The bomber cuts its engines; someone makes a misjudgment, because in the 3000-foot the bomber traveled before coming to a stop after cut-off, it wiped out 3 KC-97 air tankers on the flight line and also sustained severe damage itself. "The big joke that circulated the base was that the wing commander sped out to the flight line, looked over the damage, then called over the pilot.  He put his hand on the pilot's shoulder and said, "Just think son, two more and you've have been an ace."" If you don't believe us, click http://www.strategic-air-command.com/bases/Plattsburgh_AFB.htm

0230 GMT March 1, 2006

· Iraq Government Disputes Washington Post Figures of 1300 killed in violence after the Samarra Mosque was bombed. The government says 400 had been killed as of yesterday.

· Iran Talks Straight Again One thing that makes us look at the Iran's rather fondly these days is their penchant for straight talk. We have no clue why they refuse to dissimulate, but they're helping the west tremendously. The EU in particularly is, at all times, pathetically eager to seize on the slightest indication of moderation by Teheran on its its nuclear program.

· Iran has clearly said that any possible joint deal with the Russians to enrich uranium for its civil reactors has nothing to do with its own enrichment program, which is going to go ahead regardless.

· So in one swift statement they have also kicked the Russians, who have been staking a great deal of prestige to get Iran to give up its uranium enrichment program. Earlier they had slugged the EU straight in the face by saying, after two years of negotiations, that there was nothing to negotiate.

· The IAEA says Iran has tested a 10-centrifuge cascade and is working on a 20-centrifuge cascade. Orbat.com already knew the repeated stories in the western press about Iran planning to go the uranium enrichment route for its N-bomb were completely pointless. The Iranian bomb is going be a plutonium weapon, not a uranium weapon. The above news confirms what we have been saying. Iran is still at the stage of a small lab-scale cascade. Miles to go before it can enrich meaningful quantities to fuel grade, leave alone weapon grade.

· Your editor is not going to get into this debate all over again: he spent two years of his own time in 1984-86, without a single dollar of compensation, to show Pakistan was not going to get weapons grade uranium from its program and that it would not have a bomb before 2000. But what about the Pakistani N-tests in 1998, you will say? Our answer: what about them? Were they even real tests? And in any case the only fissile material US reconnaissance aircraft picked up was plutonium of Chinese origin. Your editor got no thanks for his work: the Indians wanted everyone to believe Pakistan had the bomb and the Americans too, for their own reasons. Someone coming along to say there was no bomb is about as welcome as Hugh Heffner at a nunnery.

· Where are the Human Rights Groups When You Need Them? Holocaust denier David Irving, recently sentenced to 3 years in jail in Austria, is spending 23 hours a day in solitary confinement.

· The man may be a bit dim, but should that get him treatment normally reserved for the most violent criminals? He hasn't killed anyone, all he's done is be stupid and say he doesn't believe Hitler was behind the extermination of Jews.

· David Irving and the Holocaust He also says that he doesn't accept the figures of Jews killed at Auschwitz because, he says, there were only two small gas chambers there which could not have handled the million who died there.

· He has a masterpiece of an argument: given the well-known German efficiency, how come so many Jews escaped being killed?

· Lordy, lordy, lordy. First, we're not so sure the Germans were super-efficient. A penchant for keeping meticulous records doesn't equate to efficiency. The Cambodians killed 3-million of their people, and we have yet to hear about Cambodian efficiency. They too kept meticulous records, by the way.

· Second, the Germans also killed 5 million other people, making a total of 11 million. That's not enough for Irving? So maybe if they had focused just on killing Jews they would have gotten to a higher total.

· Third, the killings covered a period of only three years of the war: 1942, 1943, and 1944. Once the Germans realized the war was lost, they started shutting down the death camps.

· Fourth, in case Irving hasn't noticed, there was something called World War II going on? Like anyone had the time, the manpower, the vehicles, and so on to go track down every Jew?

· Fifth, is there any doubt that had the war continued into 1946 or 1947, or - heaven forbid - Germany had won the war, then every single Jew and a few tens of millions of Slavs and so on would have been murdered?

· This Irving person needs serious medication, not to be locked up. Enough is enough. The Austrians were as responsible as anyone else for the actual killings. They aren't going to wipe out their blood guilt by mistreating an old windbag six decades later.

· Holocaust Deaths Your editor needs to first say he is pretty clueless, by choice, about the Holocaust. He first started reading about World War II at age 11, probably encountered his first Holocaust photographs at 13, and was sufficiently traumatized that human beings - leave alone the highly civilized Germans - could do this to other humans in modern times that he has studiously avoided all books, articles, discussion etc. about the subject.

· So he may be excused for not knowing till just now that the figure of 6 million is a high estimate. The low estimate. made by the same Jewish source that made the high estimate, is 4.7 million. See http://www.auschwitz.dk/Holocaust.htm If someone wants to comment on how the figures were derived, be our guest, but the editor is not going to read any further.

· Random Fact 1: Black Death May Have Caused Little Ice Age Yes, your editor also went "Huh?" when he read that headline in the paper.

· Very simple. According to these scientists, the Black Death - bubonic plague - wiped out so many people that huge tracts of agricultural land in Europe reverted to forest. More trees, more CO2 absorbed. More CO2 absorbed, you get global cooling. Global cooling, the ice advances. Voila, 500 years of high heating bills.

· Please note that some scientists have already said this hypothesis, while interesting, is not definitive.

· Random Fact 2: So You're Convinced Of Your Importance? So here's a sobering figure: using Hubble, astronomers have obtained some nice pictures of Messier 101, a galaxy with - gulp - 1 trillion stars. Our galaxy has 1-200 billion stars http://curious.astro.cornell.edu/question.php?number=31; and there are 1-200 billion galaxies in the known universe. And finally: 275 million stars are born or die every day. Every day.

· So what's all this got to do with America Goes To War? Nothing. One just gets tired, some days, reciting the usual litany of wars and killings.