0230 GMT January 5, 2006

0230 GMT January 31, 2006

Hamas Sees No Reason why Western Aid Should Be Cut When it comes to feeding at the public trough, we suppose terrorists are no different from anyone else. Hamas says western aid should continue, and it is prepared to assure transparency.
We say to Hamas: have you no shame? You should yourself refuse to take money from the west - this is the same west that brought about the creation of Israel and has stood by it for sixty years.
We say to ourselves: what were we thinking when we asked Hamas if it has no shame? Of course it has no shame. It is an opportunistic movement that wants power for itself and its followers. Hamas is just another Palestinian tribe fighting for the spoils.
Iraqis Prepare To Take Over Anbar and is preparing to take over Mosul. It has recently taken over Diwaniah and Wasit Provinces.
Bill Roggio writes that in a Newsweek interview an Anbar sheikh claims the Iraqis/US control nothing in Anbar, Zarqawi control everything.
Whatever cactus plant people smoke in Anbar has got to be the good stuff: Mr. Roggio notes the government and US forces have battle positions in every town and city in the Euphrates Valley and training of local forces is proceeding. Since anything outside the Euphrates Valley in uninhabitable, it would seem Zarqawi controls nothing and the security forces control everything. Moreover, there are a lot of Anbar groups looking to make Zarqawi keep his appointment with the virgins.
DPRK Alleges 190 US Aerial Incursions in January counting all types of spy aircraft including U-2s, RC-135s, and drones. The US's ambition to stifle DPRK by force of arms remains unchanged. The report is from China's Xinhuanet.
Assuming DPRK is counting right, we admit to being impressed by the scale of the US reconnaissance effort. That's six flights a day, seems like the US wants to lockdown the country nice and tight.
As for US ambitions, we have to rap the US on its knuckles. 51 years since the Korean Armistice and wiping out DPRK is still just an ambition? Come on America, lets see some action here before we all die of old age.
Letter from Jonathan Hisey You made a comparison of the Palestinians voting Hamas into power to the Germans voting Hitler into power. This is a bad comparison and highly incorrect. Hitler was never elected by the German people as a leader/president/dictator. In fact in the presidential election of 1932 he only got about 30% of the vote, and in the following runoff he received slightly more, 36%. In fact his Nazi party never even got a majority of the seats in the German Parliament. He was appointed chancellor by the president of Germany. He later used this position to get the parliament to delegate all powers to him making him the dictator of Germany. So I guess you could say that the German parliament voted for him for dictator or something like that. Even so that is still quite different that being directly elected by the German people.
Editor Mr. Hisey is correct, and we could have phrased things better. Hamas won an outright majority. The Nazi party even in coalition with centrists did not have a majority. After the Reichstag fire, Hitler blamed the communists and had them arrested. With the communists out of the way Hitler managed to get the Enabling Act passed which got him started on the short path to absolute dictator of Germany.
Pakistan Train Derailed By Blast A train on the Islamabad-Rawalpindi run was derailed by a blast; so far 3 are said dead and 30 injured. While sabotage in Balochistan is an everyday affair, the Punjab has had few such incidents.
Orbat.com condemns this terrorist attack against civilians.
Nigerian Hostages Released BBC says that the 4 men seized from an oil platform in the Niger Delta have been released on a ransom of $700,000 - a bit of a reduction from the $1.5-billion non-negotiable demand by the insurgents.
Why are we not surprised that all that high-minded talk about Nigeria and the oil companies must pay to clean up the environmental damage to the Delta blah blah blah was, in the end, just blah blah blah? Like the Iraq kidnappers, these men are neither terrorists nor insurgents. They're only ordinary criminals.

0230 GMT January 30, 2006

Hamas Sets Terms For Truce It wants Israel to return to its pre-1967 borders and release Palestinian prisoners. Then, says Hamas, it will be possible to have years of coexistence with Israel.
Needless to say, Israel is not buying any of this. The country has its own election coming up. There is going to be a huge shift in favor of the hardliners - Israelis are going to say: "we gave up settlements in exchange for Hamas?"
Hamas is living in a world of its own fantasy. First, Fatah is not going to let Hamas have a monopoly of armed force. Second, Israel is not going to accept a Palestine governed by Hamas. What the new rulers of Palestine don't seem to understand is that Israel can take away what is gave. The material conditions have changed, and under international law, no country is forced to adhere to an agreement when that happens.
This does not mean Israel is going to start sending missiles down Hamas's pants. It is going to wait till Hamas does something stupid, like kill Israelis, and then the hammer is going to come down.
Readers should keep in mind that Hamas, like any organization, is not composed of people with a single position. There will be moderates and extremists in Hamas. The bane of the Arab world is that nothing is ever settled. This is particularly true of Palestine, where undisciplined, everyone-do-their-own thing factions run amok no matter who is power. It is simply a matter of time before extremists within Hamas strike Israel.
Letter from Paul Danish Mr. Danish notes that the point being made that Palestinians did not vote for terror, they voted for clean and effective government. He asks, didn't the Germans in 1932 do something of the same sort?
Editor's Comment And Mr. Danish is right. Hitler came to power not by promising world domination, massacre of the Jews, and the subjugation of the Slav peoples. He offered jobs, jobs, jobs. Had the Germany people had any inkling what was in store for them in a few short years, they might have had second thoughts about their devil's bargain.
Incidentally, Hitler delivered on his jobs promise. Of course, on May 8, 1945, Germany lay in ruins from one end to the other, and aside from the suffering of the civilians, 6 million German soldiers were eternally employed in other-worldly tasks as they lay in their graves. Then Germany was partitioned, and a regime of stark totalitarianism ruled the country for the next 45 years.
But Germany did get full-employment. So much so that there were huge labor shortages. The situation was worsened because Hitler had decreed that German women were too noble to do something menial like work.
The result was the widespread use of slave labor in the 3rd Reich. This aspect gets almost ignored in the world's focus on the Holocaust, but the slave labor thing was also an enormous crime against humanity. Seven millions were enslaved, of whom, it is said, 4 of 5 died, making this a crime equal to the Holocaust. Not to mention 3.5 million Soviet prisoners of war killed or mistreated to death in captivity.
But what the heck: the man delivered on his campaign promise, no?
Now This Is The Way To Run A Court The trial of Saddam resumed. His half-brother screamed obscenities at the judge. The half-brother was ejected forcibly from court.
Then a bunch of defense lawyers walked out, with the judge warning they would be replaced. No reaction. The court appointed six new lawyers.
So then Saddam said he was going to leave in protest, he didn't want these lawyers. You leave when I tell you to leave said the judge, and Saddam was forced back into his seat and then taken away.
Meanwhile, Mr. Ramsey Clark, American advisor to the defense, was not present, but that didnt stop him from saying the "lawless". atmosphere made a fair trial impossible and the trial should be moved to another country. Please XCuze Me, Mr. Clark. Your client was behaving in a lawless fashion, not the court. Can you please think before you speak? You are too important a person to make comments like the lawless one.
Human Rights Watch And Saddam's Trial We would like to register our strong protest at HRWs completely one sided approach to the Saddam trial. Now HRW is protesting government interference in appointing judges.
First, are the people of Iraq looking to HRW to certify the legitimacy of the trial? It is a matter of the Iraqi people, the trial is orders of magnitude more fair than anyone thought Saddam would get, and you are talking about a country that has been traumatized by 35 years of brutal dictatorship. There is no institution in Iraq that was left in working condition except for the army and the security apparatus once Saddam took over.
Second, HRW has made just token mention of the intimidation of judges and witnesses going on. Does that not make the trial unfair?
Last, HRW has not focused its considerable publicity machine on the behavior of the accused.
The US Government and Saddam's Trial We further want to make a strong protest against the US government. Once the US decided it was going to get involved in a Saddam trial, it automatically ceded HRW and the like a seat in the court. You either have standards or you don't have standards. By involving itself, the US has provided justification for HRW etc to intervene and say: "This is not to US standard" - even though the notion of applying US criminal law standards to a trial like this are amusingly and pathetically naive.
The US needs to hand Saddam over to the Iraqis and get out of the trial. The US government should take its advice and its advisors and send them home. Washington, as has become the norm in Iraq, is behaving with utmost stupidity in this whole matter. It would be one-sided of us to slam HRW while coyly remaining silent about the incompetence of the US government that has largely brought about this farcical situation.
Agreement With Iran on $100/Barrel Oil Iran has said that if it is attacked, it will stop oil exports and block the Straits of Hormuz and moon the US president and stick dry erase markers up its nostrils, and oil will go to $100/Barrel and then the west will be sorry.
Mike Thompson sends us news reports that say the oil market at $70 has a $10 Iran-fear-premium already built in, and $100/bbl oil is a real possibility.
There is no reserve pumping capacity left; Saudi in any case has said it is not going to make up for the loss of Iran crude. The tight supply position arises because the dismal oil prices of the last 10 years - before the current run-up - reduced incentives to explore and produce.
There are, of course, all sorts of ways to deal with $100/bbl oil; the simplest being to do nothing and let the market take its course. Reducing taxes is one way to deal with an oil price income.
In any case the issue is not one of price. If the west is going to predicate its actions on Iran on the fear of more expensive oil, its going to find that a nuclear Iran is going to cost everyone a great deal more money.

0230 GMT January 30, 2006

Hamas Sets Terms For Truce It wants Israel to return to its pre-1967 borders and release Palestinian prisoners. Then, says Hamas, it will be possible to have years of coexistence with Israel.
Needless to say, Israel is not buying any of this. The country has its own election coming up. There is going to be a huge shift in favor of the hardliners - Israelis are going to say: "we gave up settlements in exchange for Hamas?"
Hamas is living in a world of its own fantasy. First, Fatah is not going to let Hamas have a monopoly of armed force. Second, Israel is not going to accept a Palestine governed by Hamas. What the new rulers of Palestine don't seem to understand is that Israel can take away what is gave. The material conditions have changed, and under international law, no country is forced to adhere to an agreement when that happens.
This does not mean Israel is going to start sending missiles down Hamas's pants. It is going to wait till Hamas does something stupid, like kill Israelis, and then the hammer is going to come down.
Readers should keep in mind that Hamas, like any organization, is not composed of people with a single position. There will be moderates and extremists in Hamas. The bane of the Arab world is that nothing is ever settled. This is particularly true of Palestine, where undisciplined, everyone-do-their-own thing factions run amok no matter who is power. It is simply a matter of time before extremists within Hamas strike Israel.
Letter from Paul Danish Mr. Danish notes that the point being made that Palestinians did not vote for terror, they voted for clean and effective government. He asks, didn't the Germans in 1932 do something of the same sort?
Editor's Comment And Mr. Danish is right. Hitler came to power not by promising world domination, massacre of the Jews, and the subjugation of the Slav peoples. He offered jobs, jobs, jobs. Had the Germany people had any inkling what was in store for them in a few short years, they might have had second thoughts about their devil's bargain.
Incidentally, Hitler delivered on his jobs promise. Of course, on May 8, 1945, Germany lay in ruins from one end to the other, and aside from the suffering of the civilians, 6 million German soldiers were eternally employed in other-worldly tasks as they lay in their graves. Then Germany was partitioned, and a regime of stark totalitarianism ruled the country for the next 45 years.
But Germany did get full-employment. So much so that there were huge labor shortages. The situation was worsened because Hitler had decreed that German women were too noble to do something menial like work.
The result was the widespread use of slave labor in the 3rd Reich. This aspect gets almost ignored in the world's focus on the Holocaust, but the slave labor thing was also an enormous crime against humanity. Seven millions were enslaved, of whom, it is said, 4 of 5 died, making this a crime equal to the Holocaust. Not to mention 3.5 million Soviet prisoners of war killed or mistreated to death in captivity.
But what the heck: the man delivered on his campaign promise, no?
Now This Is The Way To Run A Court The trial of Saddam resumed. His half-brother screamed obscenities at the judge. The half-brother was ejected forcibly from court.
Then a bunch of defense lawyers walked out, with the judge warning they would be replaced. No reaction. The court appointed six new lawyers.
So then Saddam said he was going to leave in protest, he didn't want these lawyers. You leave when I tell you to leave said the judge, and Saddam was forced back into his seat and then taken away.
Meanwhile, Mr. Ramsey Clark, American advisor to the defense, was not present, but that didnt stop him from saying the "lawless". atmosphere made a fair trial impossible and the trial should be moved to another country. Please XCuze Me, Mr. Clark. Your client was behaving in a lawless fashion, not the court. Can you please think before you speak? You are too important a person to make comments like the lawless one.
Human Rights Watch And Saddam's Trial We would like to register our strong protest at HRWs completely one sided approach to the Saddam trial. Now HRW is protesting government interference in appointing judges.
First, are the people of Iraq looking to HRW to certify the legitimacy of the trial? It is a matter of the Iraqi people, the trial is orders of magnitude more fair than anyone thought Saddam would get, and you are talking about a country that has been traumatized by 35 years of brutal dictatorship. There is no institution in Iraq that was left in working condition except for the army and the security apparatus once Saddam took over.
Second, HRW has made just token mention of the intimidation of judges and witnesses going on. Does that not make the trial unfair?
Last, HRW has not focused its considerable publicity machine on the behavior of the accused.
The US Government and Saddam's Trial We further want to make a strong protest against the US government. Once the US decided it was going to get involved in a Saddam trial, it automatically ceded HRW and the like a seat in the court. You either have standards or you don't have standards. By involving itself, the US has provided justification for HRW etc to intervene and say: "This is not to US standard" - even though the notion of applying US criminal law standards to a trial like this are amusingly and pathetically naive.
The US needs to hand Saddam over to the Iraqis and get out of the trial. The US government should take its advice and its advisors and send them home. Washington, as has become the norm in Iraq, is behaving with utmost stupidity in this whole matter. It would be one-sided of us to slam HRW while coyly remaining silent about the incompetence of the US government that has largely brought about this farcical situation.
Agreement With Iran on $100/Barrel Oil Iran has said that if it is attacked, it will stop oil exports and block the Straits of Hormuz and moon the US president and stick dry erase markers up its nostrils, and oil will go to $100/Barrel and then the west will be sorry.
Mike Thompson sends us news reports that say the oil market at $70 has a $10 Iran-fear-premium already built in, and $100/bbl oil is a real possibility.
There is no reserve pumping capacity left; Saudi in any case has said it is not going to make up for the loss of Iran crude. The tight supply position arises because the dismal oil prices of the last 10 years - before the current run-up - reduced incentives to explore and produce.
There are, of course, all sorts of ways to deal with $100/bbl oil; the simplest being to do nothing and let the market take its course. Reducing taxes is one way to deal with an oil price income.
In any case the issue is not one of price. If the west is going to predicate its actions on Iran on the fear of more expensive oil, its going to find that a nuclear Iran is going to cost everyone a great deal more money.

0230 GMT January 29, 2006

Hamas Proposes Palestine Army in lieu of disarming as western countries are insisting the new government - yet to be formed - must do. The idea seems dead on arrival: Fatah says the security forces answer to the President, Mr. Abbas, and there is no question of putting them under the army. That's because then Fatah forces will be abolished. If the Palestinians don't sort this out, they're setting the stage for civil war, particularly as Fatah does not seem ready to exit the scene just because Hamas won.
Its blackmail says Hamas, when told if it did not denounce terror western nations would cut off aid. That really means the US; the Europeans will talk themselves into sending aid in the same way they justified aid in Arafat's time - it was supposed to bring Arafat into the political mainstream and to give jobs/developments to ordinary Palestinians so they were not attracted to radicalism. That worked really well: Arafat stole hundreds of millions of dollars for himself, and ran the country like his personal fief with the rest. Why should it be any different now?
We don't know about the blackmail thing, but the US is constrained by its own laws regarding dealings with terrorist organizations. Also, how is Hamas entitled to get money from the US as a matter of right?
Hamas is doing a bit of blackmail of its own. If you don't give us money, it is saying, we will arrange it from Other Sources. Goodness gracious, we are so frightened. For one thing, Hamas has always been funded by Other Sources (take a guess: a country with a four letter name starting with I and ending with N, and with the letter R and A as part of the name). For another, taking money from the Other Sources will discredit Hamas further.
So the media is making a big deal about noting the people of Palestine did not vote for terror, they voted for a cleaner government. We ourselves made the point. Just like significant majorities of Israelis, the majority of Palestinians want peace. But now Hamas is in power, where's the pressure on it to accede to the will of the people?
Balochistan: We Protest We sympathize with the people of Balochistan - even if many of their leaders are a bunch of thieves masquerading as democrats and freedom fighters. But we do NOT want to hear news stories like this one: a 3-kilo bomb was discovered on a Baloch rail track 2 minutes before a passenger train was to pass. If that bomb had gone off as the train, an express, passed there could have been horrendous civilian casualties.
As of now, we are giving the people who planted the bomb the benefit of the doubt and assuming they wanted to blow up the track, not the train.
But if their target was the train, then they are terrorists pure and simple and deserve the fate of all terrorists.
Train tracks, power lines, bridges, government forces, these are legitimate targets in an insurgency. A passenger train is not a legitimate target.
Michael Moore Now Promoted To Filthy Hypocrite This American is a noted anti-American. We don't like his political views. But he has a right to them and to express them, even if he lies and twists what little truth he deals with.
But. He is on record as having said he owns not one share of stock. Reader Mike Thompson alerts us to a book which lists Mike Moore as owning tens of thousands of shares, including 2000 in Halliburton.
Sorry, didn't get that. Did you say Halliburton? Yes we did, that's what the story says. But isn't Mike Moore anti-Halliburton, having accused the company of many crimes in his ant-American movie Fahrenheit 9/11? In fact, isn't Halliburton the villain of the movie. Indeed yes.
Noam Chomsky Now this we find interesting, Prof. Chomsky being from the editor's time. This gentleman has spent a lifetime condemning the Pentagon as the source of all evil in the world. The above book says he has spent a lifetime taking money from the Pentagon - that's where his grants come from.

0230 GMT January 28, 2006

Okay Palestine, Destroy Yourself and See If We Care Fatah supporters are on a rampage, denouncing Mr. Abbas as a stooge of America who has caused their fall from 40 years of power. His policies were not our policies, they say.
Right. Your policies were or are? Presumably the same as Hamas since you are implying that since those who want to destroy Israel got elected, you wouldn't have lost had you also called for Israel's destruction?
Does it occur to Fatah that the typical Palestine voter kicked out Fatah not because it was perceived as too soft on Israel but because it is corrupt from top to bottom and back again?
If Fatah too is going to go "wipe Israel off the face of the earth", then sorry, you're going to have to proceed without our sympathy. We have stood up for the Palestine people and many times criticized the Israelis for the way they treat the occupied population. But whatever the original rights and wrongs - and there are plenty of wrongs on the side of Israel and the west, wiping out Israel doesn't qualify as a solution.
For one thing Hamas is proposing genocide; the west stood by for one genocide of the Jews, it isn't going to stand by for a second time.
For another thing, when you call for force, you have lost your moral superiority. You are every bit as bad as the Israelis who advocate force; worse, because they are not advocating genocide for you.
If there is no longer a moral issue, then might rules right. Israel has found with its wall - and the irony of the Jews building a wall around the Palestine ghetto do not escape us - that it is relatively safe from terrorism. So all you can do is launch rockets. If things get too bad for Israel, they will simply come in all over again and club you to the ground. And if you thought last time was bad, wait till next time.
Fatah, you are boring us at Orbat.com. We forgive anything, but not bores.
Hugo Starts His Purge Of The Military Our favorite dictator Hugo is hardly the perfect democrat - or any democrat come to think of it, but because he's military, we thought the military at least backs him.
Apparently not. He has a purge underway, so far mainly low-ranking officers and just one high ranking officer. The charge is spying for the US.
Hey there Hugo, baby - nice job, nice job. Two birds with one stone and all that.
By the way, we assumed everyone knows about Hugo's democratic past, but we met a young person who didnt. Huge founded a conspiracy with his military best buds in 1982, planning to overthrow the government which was, oddly enough, a democracy. Hugo's excuse was it was doing nothing for the country's poor. So you'd think the solution would be to quit the army, enter politics, stand for election.
Not a bit. Hugo staged a coup in 1992 - rather, he tried to. Arrested, he was staring at his cell walls when, nine months later, his best buds led a second attempt. This time he announced the government had fallen. Fallen was Hugo, who went back to jail.
Then he was pardoned and the rest, as they say is history.
Look at the irony of it: he tried to stage a coup, on failing, he should have been shot. Instead the soft-hearted democracy in which he resided let him live. He showed his gratitude when - after winning a legitimate election - he did away with democracy.
What about the poor he was out to help? Apparently they have gotten poorer and there are more of them as a percentage of the country's population. But that's not Hugo's fault, no no no. Its Washington's fault because it's trying to strangle Hugo's revolution.
Give it up, Hugo, our best buddy. We're not sure Washington even has figured out you're a problem. They worry about other things in Washington.
German Foreign Minister Proud Winner of Klasse Klowne Award He acknowledges that that negotiations to free two German engineers kidnapped within two days of their arrival in-country and being complicated by speculation that a $5-million ransom was paid for the German archeologist - you, the one we mentioned the other day after she was found with some of the marked ransom bills. That suggested the deal was a set up between her and the kidnappers.
But the German FM denied that the "We Pay Ransoms" policy was endangering the lives of other Germans. “The problem is not ransom payments, but the reporting about them,” he said.
In other words, if you all wouldn't yak about the thing so much, we could carry on paying ransoms and no one's lives would be in danger.
Some of us are born asses, some of us get there by hard work, and some of us can only dream of being asses. With FMs like this one, Germany is safe. From what we don't know.
By the way, we learn from the London Times the archeologist converted to Islam and lives in Iraq. So by kidnapping her the Islamic terrorists kidnapped one of their co-religionists and one who cares enough for the country to live there.

0230 GMT January 27, 2006

Hamas Wins By A Landslide Yesterday's pre-election polls proved wildly inaccurate: Hamas won 76 seats out of 132. The plan is to make an alliance with Fatah, and let Fatah continue with the compromising business of making peace with Israel, while Hamas keeps its "Israel must be destroyed" posture.
Nice plan, if Fatah is stupid enough to buy it.
Hamas's Plans Rendered Irrelevant By Immediate Israeli Rejection Imagine that, Hamas! It wasn't Fatah you had to convince, it was Israel, and the Israeli Prime Minister has already said "Forget about it" to any Palestine government that includes Hamas.
So we have the odd situation where a party with a landslide victory has already failed its people, because without Israel's cooperation, the proverbial duck cannot quack in Palestine.
And - how embarrassing is this? - Israeli said if any person it believes is a terrorist becomes a cabinet member, he is still going to be a dead duck.
Now, readers know have our criticisms of Israel, such as its very harsh measures in the formerly/presently occupied territories. Nonetheless, we have to first say we completely understand why Israel wont deal with Hamas, and second say we admire the clarity and decisiveness with which Israel has formulated its response.
Still further, there is no evidence that Hamas is going to be any less self-destructive and any more concerned for the welfare of the people than Fatah was. True that Hamas is known for its good works and so on. But those works were done to win political advantage when Hamas was the outsider. Now it is the insider, and we predict the same corruption, nepotism, suppression of dissent, large scale spying, and lack of respect for human rights that have been the hallmarks of all Palestine governments.
Times London notes that Hamas has been responsible for 50 bomb attacks killing 430 Israelis. Given that the Israeli population is 2% of the US's, that's akin to 20,600 American deaths.
Darfur Rebels Attack Government Town and the US issues a strong condemnation. The US is being fair, regardless of the origin of the violence, violence is wrong. Readers may recall we'd mentioned that a UN report on Dafur had said all parties have violated human rights.

Stories For A Slow News Day

Follies From My Adopted Country I A school student wants to wear shorts to school because of a knee injury. School says no, its winter and policy is long pants. Student says well, the girls are allowed to wear skirts and their legs show, so what's this anti-shorts policy? So go ahead and wear skirts, says the school. So the student shows up in a skirt - his family is behind him A-100% by the way.
Third day of wearing a skirt, school says, look, you're in danger of getting thrown out for this skirt thing. Student's family immediately dials 1-800-CALL-ACLU, you know, the number that goes with all the ads on the cover page of the telephone directories? "You have someone to sue for you, no matter how asinine the issue?"
ACLU threatens to sue. School backs down.
Now, if the student had a legitimate problem, what stopped him from getting a doctor's note saying he should not be covering up the injury? Because that would have deprived the student. his family, and the ACLU to make asses of themselves, and that's violative of the Constitution.
So ACLU, when next I go to substitute in my county schools, I'm going to wear a skirt, and panties on my head. Mrs. R left some clothes behind when she moved out, so I have a supply. So when the county schools fire me, no doubt you'll protect my right to free expression, right? In fact, with a nice damages award I may never have to teach again. Which will be a relief, let me tell my readers, because frankly I'd feel silly dressing in a skirt and panties on my head.
Follies From My Adopted Country II So here's this Florida murderer, strapped to the death gurney, IVs all inserted, waiting for the Big Sleep injection when the order comes "Stop The Show!". A last minute reprieve from the Governor? DNA tests exonerate? No. US Supreme Court agrees with his lawyers that death by lethal injection may cause pain and is thus cruel and unusual punishment. The matter needs to be studied further, says the Court, permanent stay issued till the matter is resolved. That stay, of course, in effect covers all murderers due to die.
Now think of this for a minute. The murderer has killed someone: shot them, knifed them, strangled them, bludgeoned them to death. What was the victim's crime that s/he had to be killed, almost certainly in a painful way? So all of a sudden we have to concern ourselves about the pain murderers may feel through the knock-out stuff they are fed first?
We have a solution: behead them. Done well, that causes no pain - or so we are told. In fact, why not hire that enthusiastic family loving chappie from Saudi that does the deed for his government? He even takes home his bloody sword and lets his little kids clean it - all part of Dad-kid bonding you know. Sometimes, when he has to execute women, he feels bad, so he merely shoots them with a handgun.
You think we're making it all up, don't you? We're not.
Okay, This Takes Some Sort of Cake Times London says Mexican police have arrested a woman wrestler who is accused of killing at least 7 elderly women and is being investigated for 22 other killings that bear the marks of her modus operendi. Okay, I did it, the woman, but they aren't going to pin all the other killings on me. How many did you kill, the journalists ask her. Just this one, she says.
Un problemo, senora, as they say. Her fingerprints match those left at ten other murders.
When this lady is not wrestling and murdering, she is selling popcorn.

0230 GMT January 26, 2006

Saddam Trial Postponed Again as several witnesses due to appear are on the Haj. The postponement has caused much handwringing from well-wishers of Iraq because they feel the trial is degenerating into farce, and perhaps it was too much to expect Iraq, given its fragile political and administrative state, could have mounted an effective trial. They argue it would have been better to hold the trial elsewhere, in an international forum.
Orbat.com must come to the defense of the Iraqi legal system. Has anyone been engaged in fits of depression over the way Yugoslav's Slobodan trail is going at the Hague? Its been quite a farce in its own way, and if you want to talk about postponements, study that trial.
Some are noting that every Saddam outburst actually provides more evidence against him. As for postponements because of this, that, and the other, that is quite routine in any 3rd World country. Matters are run in much more relaxed fashion - usually at the expense of the accused - and the lawyers for both sides and the judges work in collegial, not adversarial form, obliging each other with postponements at the drop of a hat.
Give the Iraqis a break folks, and give them a chance. They haven't had a real trial in a few decades, and certainly not one with so many high-level figures. The Iraqis will do the job. Remember what TE Lawrence used to say about training local forces? Its better to let them do the job imperfectly than to do the job for them imperfectly. Same applies here.
Cindy Sheehan Strikes Again - or as reader Mike Thompson rudely - but appropriately - put it, "Hugo Has A New Babe". Yes folks, Ms. Sheehan is now in Venezuela, doing her anti-war farce with our favorite dictator. It would be interesting to know where she gets her funding from: interesting, but not really relevant. After all, she is a private US citizen and has all the rights thereof, including the very precious Zero Amendment right, of which most of us have taken advantage at some point in our lives, the Right To Make An Ass of Oneself.
Palestine Election To Be Underway Soon We haven't been carrying the twists and turns of the election campaign, but exit polls show a bit of unexpected news: Hamas, which was supposed to do well against the incumbent Fatah Party - Arafat's old circus - may get only 40% of the vote. That would block Fatah from a majority, but still leave it the biggest party.
Klasse Klowne Georgie Porgie At It Again Too He loses: he is kicked off the BBC show, which sort of works like Survivor: the participants behave in degrading fashion to the great amusement of audience, and periodically there are votes among the participants top see who is to be thrown out, winnowing the field.
He wins: his libel award against a UK paper which accused him of making money off the oil-for-food program has been upheld.
He loses: a video has surfaced, which if genuine, shows him being pal-a-pal with the infamous Uday, son of Saddam.
Though, to be entirely candid, we are not sure how the Uday video hurts Gorgeous George - as he is called in England - despite the general belief it is going to hurt him. GG's travels to Iraq are well known, were heavily criticized at the time. He met everyone he could - ostensibly to get support for his charity which looks after orphaned Iraqi children. So why shouldn't he have met Uday?
Letter from An Irate Orbat.com Reader We are forced to summarize it as the writer was indeed irate. The below is NOT what the reader wrote, but our summary.
Dear Editor: Your ruminations on the Indian Assam insurgency were most fascinating, and your desire to report on Assam as a way of being even-handed given your reporting on Baluchistan commendable.
The problem is that Baluchistan is a matter of international importance that extends beyond the Terror War, whereas Assam is purely an internal Indian affair that affects no one else but India.
Kindly keep your lengthy nose out of India's business and focus it where you should, in Baluchistan, which is becoming the world's business.
Editor's note: Cant keep everyone happy, can we now? Sticks and stones and all that. But we did use up a Kleenex box because our feelings were hurt by the letter writer.
Oh Please Xinhuanet reports that the Kyrgyz government has demanded an increase in the rent for Manas Air Base because, among other things, of the environmental degradation the base has caused.
Now, the government has full right to demand what it wants for rent. But because of environmental degradation? Give us a break. Like the Kyrgyz government even knows what environmental degradation is - the republic is ex-USSR in any case anyone needs to be reminded.

230 GMT January 25, 2006

Al Qaeda Tries An Iraqi Face [Thanks Mike Thompson] Chicago Tribune says that the terrorist Zarqawi has stepped down as head of an Iraqi council of terror organizations, probably because of a rift within Iraqi terror groups on his role. There is no evidence that his leadership of his own group is threatened.
And why should it be? They are foreigners in Iraq, Zarqawi is their only leader. Considering now even the locals are gunning for him, its probably a good idea to have an Iraqi as head of the council.
Well, We Guess Something Is Better Than Nothing The might European grouping, with a GNP/population equivalent to that of the US, is stepping up the plate in assuming its responsibilities for global peacekeeping/peacemaking. An 800 person gendarmerie force with 2300 reserves is now designated for international deployment to fill the gap between military operations and police operations as an area stabilizes.
Our first reaction was to go snarf-guffaw-hahaha. 800 personnel. Will be a great help seeing as tens of thousands of peacekeepers/peacemakers are needed in each of several existing crisis areas.
Our second reaction was to go: lets be realistic here. The Europeans are too bound up in themselves to be convinced, cajoled, or shamed into doing their due part on the world scene. Like it or not, the US has to accept what help it can get. 800 paramilitary troops is better than zero paramilitary troops. Its absurd, its ridiculous, its a cop-out by the Euros, its selfish, and downright pathetic. But its something.
US Official Who Passed Information To Israel sentenced to 12 1/2 years. We were quite rabid when the case broke and wanted to know why Israel seemed to get away with so much. Seeing as this was policy-type information rather than, say, weapons or intelligence agency stuff, we suppose we should be satisfied and say justice has been done.
The two person belong to an American-Israeli group who received the information are still to go to trial. Their defense will be they did not know the information was classified, and that they were merely passing on oral conversations. The US government says they did so know the information was classified. This matter can be decided only by the court.
Italian Oil Company Platform in Nigeria Attacked Company security guards and policemen posted to protect the platform fought back, but nine were killed while none of the attackers seems to have died. The oil company has evacuated the platform.
We assume the Nigerians are reinforcing the Delta region. Protecting oil platforms in force is not difficult; oil pipelines are harder to secure, but its not an impossible task.
The problem here is that as usual the locals are going to get hit by both sides. If they don't cooperate with the rebels, they will suffer. And if they don't cooperate with the security forces, they will suffer.
One thing for sure: the human rights groups will be hollering repression at the tops of their voices. The thing these primarily western groups don't understand is that situations such as the Nigerian Delta are not law-and-order problems. They are insurgencies and attacks by bandit groups. To begin with countries like Nigeria do not have an efficient policing system - most 3rd world countries. Add to that you are not dealing with policing downtown New York, and you get what from the HR viewpoint is a bad situation. But there is no practical help for it.
Rummy Scores Again We hafta give the old boy credit. He should have long ago been packing his dumbells and vacating the Pentagon office. Instead here he is, roaring onto center stage again, having won once again despite all the horrible lessons of Iraq.
First, he has affected the Army's much touted brigade increase by using existing manpower, not by adding manpower, for which he has a congressional mandate but no interest. Then, he proceeds to cut six combat brigades from the Guard, so that if you take the One Army, you're getting a net increase of one brigade. The states adjutant-generals are going bananas at losing so many combat units, but frankly, they have as much chance of resisting the Rummy Rodeo as your editor has of getting a date with Ms. Nicole Kidman.
Last, he has announced his long-sought after increase in Special Forces. Yesterday the Washington Post announced the Army will add five battalions to its 15 SF battalions; the Rangers will get 3 more companies - also a one-third increase; civil affairs units increase; surveillance and electronic capability of every kind will be increased. Delta Force increases, no details obviously; and so far no word on SEALS. The Marines have already been bludgeoned to integrate their SOC with the rest of the military, so we don't know if this is to increase. There are 52,000 SF troops now, we suspect the total will increase to perhaps 60,000.
Knowing Rummy as we do, we are sure he will not be adding one body to get this SF increase.
Whenever anyone says "Special Forces", your editor harks back to the wise words of Field Marshal Slim, the man who lead the British-Indian 14th Army to victory in SE Asia, and possibly the most underrated general on the Allied side because - lets be frank - the jungle fighting was not a bit sexy and the Brits of those days in any case were weak on promoting themselves in the media.
Marshal Slim had a considerable contingent of SF troops: the Chindits and the American Merrill's Marauders are the best known. Nonetheless, he was leery of these supermen. They required too much care and feeding, in his opinion, and drained critically needed small unit leaders from line units. After this increase, 9% of the US Army will be SF, and maybe Marshal Slim had a point.

0230 GMT January 24, 2006

8 Guatemala SF Soldiers Die in Congo Fighting A 60-70 person contingent of The Uganda Lord's Resistance Army, one of the most despicable insurgents groups in the world, entered the Congo jungles to hide. The LRA operates in the Sudan, and the forest in question is near the Sudan border.The LRA's signature recruitment tool is to kidnap children and force them to become insurgents, lets not mention the usual burning of villages, killing of women and children, slaughtering of livestock and all that, this is quite normal for many insurgent groups.
The UN and DRC army went in after them, and a Guatemala SF detachment was in the lead to find the LRA lot. The Guatemalans would be the logical troops to use because their jungle is a lot like the DRC jungle.
The detachment ran into trouble, the UN reaction force including attack helicopters came in, killing over 15 insurgents and wounding most of the rest of the group.
Our sympathies are with the families of the Guatemala soldiers. So many of us die pointless deaths. These men gave their lives for a noble cause, to help eliminate a scourge of Central Africa.
Rebels Strike in Indian State We've been covering the Baluchistan insurgency, in fairness we need to note that in the Indian Northeast state of Assam, long a hotbed of separatist groups, a leading group ULFA seems to have broken off talks with the Indian government and has launched a series of attacks. Two policemen have been killed, an oil pipeline to 2 refineries blown up, and an army camp attacked.
The issues in India's Northeast region are many and complex, and there are dozens of insurgents groups of one kind or another with differing agendas. Most of the trouble centers around land and jobs. For more than 30 years there has been near unrestricted migration from Bangladesh to the Indian Northeast, and even before that there were local tribes resisting integration into a rapidly modernizing India. Due to the immigration, and growth of local population, there is a shortage of land and of jobs.
Prior to 1947, the territory north of the Bhramaputra River was treated by the British in much the same way as the territory west of the Indus - leave the place alone, if the natives created too much of a ruckus, mount a punitive expedition.
But matters changed once China took over Tibet and in the aftermath of the Sino-Indian 1962 War. India could no longer ignore the region, and in any case the Indian government was determined to integrate the Northeast into the rest of the country following independence.
The current situation is made more complicated because Pakistan's ISI saw fertile ground and starting in the late 1990s, began funding insurgent groups in Northeast India and fundamentalist groups in Bangladesh. The money invested has paid good dividends: Islamic fundamentalism is gaining a dangerous hold in Bangladesh, and India's Northeast is witnessing more trouble than it would if the ISI had not arrived. Nonetheless, we do need to be clear that for decades before the ISI's involvement, there has been trouble in the region.
US Navy Captures a Horn Pirate Vessel The missile destroyer USS Winston S. Churchill, 5th Fleet, intercepted a pirate vessel off Somalia and captured the crew. The members are being interrogated to see who are the genuine crew and who are the persons who seized the vessel and forced it into a pirate attack against a merchant vessel.
This is a small victory against the Horn pirates, but at last the US/NATO are doing what they should have been doing a year ago. Good job, US Navy.
The Rock, Spies, and a Question So, the Russians says the Brits were using a fake rock as an electronic dead letter box. This sounded improbable to us, until the London Times explained that a fake rock has its uses. Your contact visits a given area - "sit on the park bench next to the Lenin statue" or whatever, and then he uses his wireless modem or whatever to download the data. You also stroll over to the vicinity of the rock at an appropriate time, and upload the data. The only time you need to get at the rock itself is to change batteries, and indeed the Russians have fotos of a person picking up the rock, putting it in his backpack, and ambling off.
Its supposed to all be very clever and so on, ultra-modern, high-tech, the cat's pajamas and so on.
Which leads us to the question. Why go through all this nonsense when all you need to do is get a temporary IP address, and send your information from your computer? Then there is no need to be circling a specific rock, and no problem of changing batteries.
So while we're prepared to accept this rock thing may be for real, its pretty stoopid. We realize spies have to be kept employed, but if any government is that desperate, we have lots of work for spies, we suggest governments contact us, We'll give them the work and the governments can give them the paycheck, as we don't have any money to pay anyone.

0230 GMT January 23, 2006

Pakistan: An Analytical Post

Another Day at the Crazy P This ranch is internationally recognized as the nation Pakistan. There are days, however, when one is forced to wonder if morons or regular IQ people are running the country.
Your editor doesn't want his Pakistani readers to think he is picking on their country: if they are regulars, they know he often feels the same way about people who run his country.
Item 1: The Pakistan PM is in Washington, and he says the CIA's story that Al Qaeda people were present at the village the US struck the other day are "bizarre". As of half-an-hour ago, he says, Pakistan has no information about any AQ people at the village.
Item 2: The he immediately says: if any were present, we will find out because we are investigating. So then what is bizarre about the story? Does he mean because his government has no information the CIA cant have information? His government's writ doesn't run in that area, the 3-way writ is the locals, the Taliban/AQ, and the CIA. Yes, hard as it is for the PM to accept, the CIA does know better than he does.
Item 3: The local authorities for days have been giving information on who was present, who was killed, who took away the bodies. They have been looking for two clerics involved, and indeed, they have found one. So what the PM is saying in effect is, the local authorities are also telling bizarre stories.
Item 4: The Pakistan government, press, and foreign media have made much of the "growing anger" of the locals because innocents were killed.
Lets get some facts right. The locals are out for the maximum compensation. They would sell their mothers, their wives, their daughters for the right price. They are liars and cannot be trusted for one minute - the Pakistan government certainly doesn't trust them, and for the naive western media, we have the hard proof in the rigged up "missile" story that was sold to the New York Times. In these unpleasant characteristics, the locals are hardly unique. Life is nasty, brutish, and short in many place of the world, and people seize the main chance when they see it. Cant blame the locals, this is not a moral issue.
Second, Pakistan intelligence is instigating the so called anger because there is a faction of Pakistan intelligence that continues to support the Taliban/AQ and thinks by creating enough of a problem it will force the US government to be more careful when striking its protégés, or even better, share intelligence before such strikes - so that these bad guys can warn the Taliban/AQ not to come into the area.
Third, the Pakistan government is caught between a rock and a hard place. It has lost face because the US made a strike and killed prominent terrorists, whereas the government can seem to do nothing about them.
Fourth, the learned PM needs to be made aware of some very unpleasant realities. Pakistan was informed a strike would take place. It was a joint Pakistan-US unit dedicated to such missions that developed the intelligence in the first place. The Pakistanis in the unit, and their bosses, knew the strike would take place. But because the US knows every bit of information given to the Pakistan military is leaked to the enemy, the Pakistanis in the unit are those who have proved their loyalty to America. If the Pakistan government were in control of the country, none of this would need to be done. There could be straight government-to-government cooperation. The PM's government does not run the country, the Army does. And within the Army there are big factions who continue to back the Taliban/AQ. That is the end of the matter.
As such, the PM needs to shut up and stop making an ass of himself.
An Aside: Why is it Pakistani Leaders Look So Good On TV? We are convinced that to become a successful leader in Pakistan, civil or military, you have to be strikingly good looking. They strike these wonderfully noble poses. They look so strong, honest, reliable, capable. The Pakistan PM fits the bill. We doubt not that many Washington women are gasping and panting over him.
Indian leaders look like petty criminals and usurious money lenders. No one in his right mind would trust an Indian leader - honorable exceptions excepted, the current PM and the previous one. What a pity that the Pakistani leaders who look so good are today even more venal than the Indian leaders, who once were as venal as the Pakistanis, but due to the grace of the Divine, have lately been increasingly honest and capable.
In Defense of Pakistan Your editor used to get regularly berated by Pakistanis because they thought he was anti-Pakistani. Not a bit. Your editor rigorously defended Pakistan in matters the country needed to be defended, such as the 1971 War, the conventional arms race, nuclear weapons, and so on.
Your editor is now about to say something that is going to upset his American readers. But if they cannot understand Pakistan's imperatives, they cannot deal with Pakistan.
If you are Pakistan, creating the Taliban and taking over Afghanistan was an audacious, brilliant. and perfectly executed master stroke, one of the two top master strokes in South Asia since 1947, the other being India's forced partition of Pakistan in 1971.
What went wrong The Taliban, and the most extreme elements of the Pakistani military and intelligence, made the very great mistake of allying with Osama Bin Laden, and then laughingly refusing the Americans when they asked for Osama's head post 9/11. Like so many people have so many times over in history, they thought the Americans were knaves and cowards: how could they come and get Osama from Afghanistan?
Right you were mate. And when the B-52s came in, ripping entire mountain tops to shreds with strings of 2000-lb bombs dropped lazily, calmly, and with great precision from 10,000 meters, you found out who were the knaves. You died before you had a chance to fight, your invincible army that had never been conquered disintegrated like dust on the dry plains in winter, the Pakistanis had to beg the Americans to let their remaining 6,000 soldiers be evacuated, promising eternal love and cooperation in return, before they too were shredded to pieces of flesh and bone measured in inches. The invincible tribal lakshars set out to fight the infidel, even 70 year old who publicly boasted that their lives would be complete after they had killed Americans.
Right you were mates, and you died on the road to your assembly areas, when American tactical air came and disintegrated all your convoys of hundreds of vehicles. You never even saw an American, leave alone get a chance to shoot at one. You were so insignificant that the Americans never even bothered to estimate how many of you and your Taliban brothers died. Does a man count the flies he has killed when he clears an infestation?
Then the Americans came to Pakistan, and kindly suggested they were going to bomb you into the stone age if Pakistan didn't cooperate. Luckily for Pakistan, the Americans were dealing with real soldiers who knew what the Americans could do. So the Pakistanis agreed.
BUT: It was not, is not, and never will be in the interest of the Pakistanis to kill the very same Taliban/AQ on which they depended/still depend to survive: Pakistan needs strategic depth against India, and Afghanistan is that depth. Moreover, wrong as my American readers and I may think the Muslim fundamentalists are, they enjoy great support in Pakistan and in the military.
So Pakistan has been operating on dual tracks: supporting the Americans because it must, supporting the Taliban/AQ because it wants to. This is typical Pakistani procedure, the one thing they did not count on, to put it very rudely, when the Americans are angry at you and have your privates in their hand, they will keep squeezing till you do what they tell you to, or till you die. The Americans are not going to let the Pakistanis go - they have only begun in Pakistan, and this is a story we can discuss one day if anyone is interested.
The Pakistanis, Taliban, and Al Qaeda have taken shattering hammer blows from the Americans. They stand up, and they are knocked down again. This will go on for as long as neccessary because the Americans are not going to stop till they are satisfied.
At the same time, the Americans shouldn't make the mistake of thinking they are dealing with cowards. The Afghans and Pakistani tribals are not cowards. This provides fertile material to the Pakistan ISI, only a very few of whose operatives actually risk their skins. They send the locals out to die.
An Offensive Is Coming Now ISI is assembling a fresh group, our information is it is between 3,000 and 5,000 men, to continue the war in Afghanistan. There are always youngsters who grow up and are ready to say: "my elders fought and died, but I will fight and win". There are always elders willing to bet that while their neighbor died in a US strike, they can fight and win.
The stupid western media in 2001 talked about the Taliban offensives that would come in 2002 when the winter snows melted. There were no offensives. Then the media talked of offensives in 2003. None materialized. There was no talk of offensives in 2004, and if you can call random attacks by bands of 10-30 insurgents who seem to lose more men then they kill offensives, well, in 2005 we had offensives, which achieved nothing.
But in 2006 you will see something resembling an offensive because there is this fresh cannon fodder waiting to be killed. That they will be killed, our readers need not doubt.
The issue is, however, not these men preparing to cross the border and then to run back as needed. The issue is the ISI handlers. There is nothing to stop them from training a fresh batch for 2008 or whatever.
Strike at the Head of the Snake If the US is to put an end to this, it has to strike at the head of this snake. The US knows who the senior ISI officials involved are, it knows who most of the field operatives are. The US has to quickly, with no hesitation, right now, start killing these men, by any means neccessary. When an ISI colonel is not sure if he can have a peaceful evening drink on his verandah at his hourse because the assassin may come for him, you will see the change needed.
Otherwise, its back to Second Indochina. The US destroyed the Viet Cong armies by 1968 and savaged the PAVN, the North Vietnamese put together a new army and attacked in 1972. The US wiped out that army; the North Vietnamese put together a new army and attacked in 1975. The US could have destroyed that army too, but it lost patience and decided to come home.
There is no danger it will lose patience in Pakistan. But America has to understand it is dealing with men who - from their stand - believe they are fighting for the survival of Pakistan. They have nothing to gain by doing what America tells them to, and everything to lose. So, being South Asians, they will temporize, and double deal. People change their behavior only when it is too painful to continue as before.
We are not telling the CIA, the Pentagon, State, the FBI anything they don't know already. But as yet we do not see that America is willing to take that step of killing Pakistan ISI people in Pakistan.
Morally, ethically, they must. America, do not take out your anger and your wrath on the people of Pakistan. They are victims of their rulers. Kill the killers, not the innocents.
Caveat: the women and children who died at the Pakistan village were innocents. Their men were not. America is not responsible when insurgents and terrorists use their own women and children as shields. Sorry about that.

0230 GMT January 22, 2006

Shias Offer Iraq National Unity Government Sunni parties are welcome to participate in a likely coalition of Shias and Kurds, says the largest Shia party, providing they do more to fight terrorism.
This is a positive development and shows that - at least as of now - Shias are willing to let bygones be bygones. They could have easily excluded the Sunnis from power should they have wished.
Oil At $68 a barrel as Nigeria loses 220,000 bbl/day export due to trouble in the Delta region and Iran talks of oil embargoes should the west impose sanctions.
Louisiana Officials Visit Holland Dykes Which seems reasonable enough, as the Dutch are the masters when it comes to protecting below sea-level land from the sea. But BBC points out an irony: in 1953, after the Dutch dykes failed in 500 places and 2000 people lost their lives in a catastrophe worse than Katrina, the Dutch came to study the Louisiana dykes which seemed to them a marvel of engineering.
The Louisiana dykes were built to a "Mean Time Between Failure" (our term) of 2-300 years. The Dutch went home and engineered dykes with a MTBF of 10,000 years, which is to say the dykes can withstand the worst storm that can come along every 10,000 years.
Baluchistan [Jang of Pakistan] A Frontier Corps commander says that the internal security situation in Baluchistan is improving as the government continues to dismantle outlaw camps - that is the term Pakistan uses for insurgent camps. Nine paramilitary troops and up to 55 outlaws have been killed.
Meanwhile, insurgents exploded 3 "powerful" bombs at one place in Baluchistan, government reports no casualties. Four rockets were fired at a Frontier Corps post; no casualties. But this is interesting: 500 rockets fired at another Frontier Corps post of which 300 hit the post, causing heavy damage. Two troops injured.
Many of these posts are old forts built of mud brick with enormously thick walls. Firing at them is like firing at a lot of sandbags. Some of the forts are large, and if the paramilitary garrison is well spread out, casualties can be few.
We still haven't figured out what these rockets are. Mortar shells? Rockets left over from the modern Afghan Wars? Homemade contraptions?
An Iraq Kidnapping Hoax? [Thanks Mike Thompson] Reuters quoting the German magazine Focus, which does not attribute the report, talks about the kidnapping of a German archeologist in Iraq. The Germans say no ransom was paid for her release. She sang praises of the kidnappers, saying they told her they did not want money, but may be they would ask Germany to send aid to Sunni areas.
So, the archeologist is having a shower in the German embassy in Baghdad, a reasonable thing to be doing after you've been freed by kidnappers. Found in her clothes are several thousand dollars, with serial numbers matching those paid by the German government for ransom.
German government, archeologist and her family are not available for comment.
Orbat.com does have a comment: Nice scam, guys. Hats off to you all and all that.
Leads us to ask a question: people know Iraq is a dangerous place. People insist on going to Iraq. People get kidnapped, almost always for ransom, in Iraq. Why does anyone owe anything to these people? Why is the US Government wasting your editor's hard earned money in expending any time and effort on kidnapped American private citizens, such as the Christian Science Monitor correspondent who is right now the focus of intense efforts to free her?
Okay, she's a young woman and all that, hasn't harmed anyone in her life, just wants to report the news. That could be anyone's child, it could be the editor's child. But what right does she or her family have to expect the US government to get involved?
US Government and others should simply say: you go at your own risk. Don't call us if you get kidnapped, we wont call you. The end.
Truth in Advertising Moment: Your editor made so little money in 2005 that the US Government and the State of Maryland are giving him back every dollar they took as taxes - he's below taxable limit. So the hard earned money part being wasted is rhetorical - for this year only, mind you. But readers will get the point.
Random Note: Cellini Salt Cellar Worth $50-million Recovered The cellar was made for Francis I of France four-and-a-half centuries ago. It was stolen and has been recovered.
OK, there has been one Benvenuto Cellini in human history, and for all we know, maybe there won't be another one for thousands of years more. But $50-million? Well, apparently people have that kind of money today to spend, just not anyone we're on nodding terms with. Kind of makes one wonder, though.
Someone could retort: the US spends $1-billion a week in Iraq, so is $50-million for a unique piece of perfection that outrageous? Well, perhaps not. 450 years from now the cellar with still be an object of beauty to admire. None except students of ancient history will be concerned with the US and Iraq.

0230 GMT January 21, 2006

No Majority In Iraq Poll BBC says the Shia-led Iraqi Alliance won 128 of 275 seats, the Kurds won 53, and the main Sunni bloc 43. Lacking a clear majority, the Shias must now enter tough negotiations to win over other parties.
BBC is as math challenged as are many American 7th Graders. The negotiations are going to be easy, not tough.
Consider. A majority from 275 seats requires 138 seats. The Shia party is 10 votes short. There are 51 seats in the hands of parties/individuals that do not belong to the main 3 blocks. Many of those 51 have to be Shias. Also, most Shias are quite willing to let the Kurds do their thing and the Kurds are happy to let the Shias do their thing. Its easy to win partners from the Kurdish parties.
Go on, BBC, you can do it! You can succeed at math! Just believe in yourself! Actually, that's letting BBC off too easily. Lets try this: OK, BBC, you are the biggest klutzes among the major news agencies! Extra homework tonight! 100 additional problems and for every wrong answer you will have to do 10 more problems!
Nice graphic, though:

Iranian President Strikes Again! Challenges Europeans to open their doors to Israelis, and believes no Israeli will want to stay in the Middle East once s/he can be convinced s/he will never be victimized for being a Semite! [Thanks to Mike Thompson.]
Orbat.com Counters with Its Own Brilliant Proposal! Challenges Iran president to provide exit visas and $100,000 per family from oil revenues over next 10 years! We are sure no Iranian will want to stay in Iran if given the chance to escape this regime of looniemiesters and clowns!
A Letter to the Washington Post A reader asks the WashPo that suppose Mr. Zawahiri, AQ Number 2, is believed to be in a building in New York. Would the US order a a strike against the building?
The point the learned letter-writer seeks to make is, obviously not. So why the double standards, seeing as the US had no problems striking Pakistani buildings?
Its back to Kindergarten, folks. Lets explain things as simply as possible to the learned letter writer. He is right; the US would not take down a building in New York to get AQ's Number 2. It would send the New York SWAT team to get him. Would the learned letter-writer care to tell us how the US could peacefully arrest Number 2 in Pakistan's North West Frontier Province, on the Afghan border, in a region that even the Pakistan government does not control, let alone the US?
Paul Danish On News That German BND Aids Mossad What's of even greater interest is how the editors of the Jerusalem Post have managed to stay out of jail [after revealing the cooperation between the two agencies - see our story January 20]. Israel does have censorship of the press when it comes to military matters, and the press honors it. I find it almost unthinkable that this story would have been printed without official permission. (If it was, look for some personnel changes at the paper in the coming weeks.) The really interesting question is -- true or untrue -- why would such a leak be ordered.

0230 GMT January 20, 2006

Another Day of Pathetic Posturing And No Real News First we have Osama offering a truce to America so that Al Qaeda can rebuild Iraq and Afghanistan. Then we have the French President implying nuclear weapons could be used in retaliation for a terrorist attack. Not to be outdone, Nigerian militants holding 4 oil workers hostage want a mere $1.5 billion, i.e., $375-million per hostage, local control of oil revenues, and release of all prisoners. One of the 4 is apparently very sick, if he dies the militants say they will kill the other 3. Then there is Pakistan wanting better coordination with the US over anti-terrorist strikes; i.e., Pakistan should be kept informed.
Lets start with Osama. We suggest our readers ignore the purported message he has sent. First, it makes absolutely no sense. Second, we have only the CIA's word that the message is genuine. Third, the immediate effect of the message will be to boost the US President's flagging standing, even if the message is genuine - which we doubt - no one but the talking heads will take the least bit of notice.
On the the French president. So a terrorist attack takes place against France, and the president nukes just who, precisely? And if the terrorists are home grown, as the London lot was, does the president nuke Muslim majority areas in France? Sheesh.
The Nigerian militants: can someone tell them no human being is worth $375-million in ransom, and if they kill the hostages, then the militants are left with nothing. And, like, Government of Nigeria is going to hand over control of oil revenues to these local bandits? Lagos is going to come in there killing and burning everything that looks like a rebel or a rebel hut.
So on to our friends the Pakistanis. Once upon a time your editor used to sympathize with the Pakistanis, because we Indians too suffered from amazingly incompetent governments bent only on lining their own pockets. There was shared suffering, so as to speak. We were equally oppressed. Well, by divine intervention or fool's luck, about 15 years ago India started to get reasonably competent governments and the country hasn't looked back. Our Pakistani brethren, however, are still forced to suffer the rule of fools. Some American sources are alleging the reason Al Qaeda Number 2 may have been more wary than usual is because some elements of the Pakistan security services learned the Americans were about to stage a hit. To give the Pakistan government advance notice of strikes is for the Americans to paste a great big sign on their behinds saying: "Please kick us, there is no one dumber than we are." There's a reason the Americans don't give advance notice.
A Snippet From the Crime Scene This is the kind of story we love. Jang of Pakistan says that the Pakistani authorities are looking for two pro-Taliban clerics who were present at the now-famous dinner. The Pakistanis suspect these two organized the removal of terrorist bodies. One then led anti-US protests over the strike. Now he has vanished and is being earnestly sought because, the Pakistanis say, much will be clear once he is apprehended.
In The Truth Stranger Than Fiction Department Jerusalem Post says the German intelligence agency, the BND, has been providing German passports and identities to Mossad, for the latter to use as it sees best. Once handed over, the Germans cease to have any say in the use of the identities. The identities are real, of people who are never likely to leave the European Union region.
Had a fiction writer used the above as part of his story, a lot of people - including ourselves - would have said "what charming imaginations these fiction writers have."
What we'd find of greater interest, however, is a J-Post story on how the US and Western Europe helped Israel get its nuclear weapons
Katrina: Mississippi versus Louisiana Here is a letter from Stephen B. Spach, who was present with the military.
I was deployed with the 38^th ID (JTF LEE/BUCKEYE) to Stennis IAP, Mississippi for the month of September 05. Our AO was Hancock County (Bay St Louis, Waveland) and Pearl River County (Picayune). Our TF arrived on station on 1 Sep 05 and was re-deployed on 24 Sep 05. In my AAR of the mission I was amazed at the ability of military forces (Active Duty and Guard) to join together along with state, local, NGO’s, and federal emergency management forces in such short time with no prior coordination or training in this type mission! Army National Guard (Command and Control, and Maneuver) elements were working with active duty USMC, Navy, Coast Guard, and Air National Guard forces in coordination to support relief efforts being conducted by local emergency operations personnel.
Each county had an Emergency Operations representative for the county and was the POC for relief operations in the county. Also, the local police, fire, governmental personnel were involved in the coordination efforts with the EOC’s. FEMA’s role in the mission from my understanding was one of logistical support operations to the local EOC’s and not Command and Control. Our TF tracked Measures of Effectiveness (utilities, schools, communications, government, environmental, social factors) to track daily progress in the humanitarian support mission. Our TF was able to achieve within three weeks an 80% or better solution in all areas except schools!
Your editor feels compelled to add: Mississippi is one of the poorest American states that, like Louisiana, has a well-deserved reputation for corruption on all levels of government. But when push came to shove, Mississippi did what it had to for its citizens.

0230 GMT January 19, 2006

3 Al Qaeda Personnel Identified by Pakistan as having been killed in the US strike. They include its chief bomb maker and CW expert, who had a $5-million bounty on his head; AQ Number's 2 son-in-law; the AQ operations chief for Afghanistan's Kunar Province. A good haul, and congratulations to all involved.
As for the civilians killed, we repeat: look not to the US, but to the hosts and the AQ personnel who in effect used the innocents as human shields.
Thanks to Mike Thompson and Powerline.com for the story, which came from Reuters, which in turn was relying on Pakistan officials. Associated Press and CNN still have Pakistani officials as saying no terrorist deaths have been confirmed.
Iraqis to Take Over Security For Anbar [Thanks to Powerline.com] Some months ago, Anbar Province in Iraq was the heart of the insurgency. Today comes the news the Iraqis are to take over security. This involves more than just Iraq government security forces. The US is to train local forces for the job, and as they stand up, the US will draw down its own forces.
Why the 180-degree reversal? Simply because the locals got tired of Zarqawi and his terrorists killing locals and trying to impose their version of Islamic law on them. In Ramadi - for a very long-time time even more pro-insurgent than Fallujah - Zarqawi is a wanted man. We presume he will take the hint and leave Iraq. Otherwise he will be dead: its very hard to fight security forces and the locals.
Say It Aint So, Ms. Merkel Lets first make clear we are admirers of the new German Chancellor. We thought her predecessor was an insufferably arrogant ass, and now it turns out he was a corrupt one as well. He could hardly wait to lay down office and to assume his new job as head of a Russian-German gas pipeline consortium. The deal with the Russians was signed by the former Chancellor 10 days before elections. Ms. Merkel is a plain-speaker, a technocrat, and - forgive us for thinking it is important, but to us it is - she wants to work with Washington in the Terror War and not against.
So we were taken aback when on her Washington visit the other day she proclaimed Euro 3's Iran policy a success. No, Frau Chancellor, and we say this most respectfully, Euro 3's Iran policy has been a colossal failure. everyone but yourself seems to understand that.
We say again, as before, our readers should waste no time on following what the UN/Security Council are doing on the matter. There will be no UN sanctions because PRC - and ultimately Russia too - will veto sanctions.
Ivory Coast Bangladesh troops with the UN mission to Ivory Coast had to open fire to disperse pro-government demonstrators who have started an agitation for France and the UN to leave the country. The demonstrators threatened to break into the base when they were repulsed. To increase its security, the UN force has ordered the evacuation of the Bangladesh base and another, with the troops withdrawing north, deeper into the demilitarized zone which divides the government south from the rebel north.
New Orleans, Again Where do they find people like the Mayor of New Orleans? He is now apologizing for having said his city was destroyed because of the wrath of God. The Supreme Being also does not approve of the US being in Iraq under false pretences. Further, God has distinct preferences about New Orleans' ethnic makeup.
What is needed is not an apology, but a resignation. Clearly the man needs a nice, long rest in a nice, soothing mental hospital.
So was God also responsible for wiping out 110-km of the Mississippi coast? A swath that wide simply went off the map after Katrina did her thing. Mississippi suffered much heavier damage than Louisiana. While the media and US was fixated on New Orleans - and still are - Mississippi got little or no help for weeks. Did its people run around whining and moaning and weeping? This may come as a big surprise to the New Orleans lot, but they are poor people a plenty in Mississippi too.
Mississippi is quietly rebuilding. Of course, as the Washington Post correctly says, it helps that the Governor of the state and both senators are amongst the best connected people in the United States. What WashPost did not add was that these 3 officials have taken a "can do" attitude from the start, and have assumed responsibility for their hurricane victims from the start. They haven't been grandstanding and focused on getting their faces on the evening news.

0230 GMT January 18, 2006

Military Details of Baluchistan Operations [by Mandeep Singh Bajwa, our South Asia correspondent, based on intelligence sources].
The present military action in Balochistan launched by formations of
41 Division (Quetta), 16 Division (Pano Aqil), and fourteen Corps paramilitary battalions. They are supported by Divisional Artillery 16 and 41 Division , Two Air force Squadrons operating from Samungli Base Quetta, Sibi Forward Base and Jacobabad Airbase.
The major areas of operation are Barkhan-Chamalang-Maiwand-Kohlu and eastern outskirts of Khost and Harnai.
Its a search and destroy operation. The FC is 99 % Pashtun while the
army units are generally 60-70 % Punjabi and remaining Pashtuns or
Ranghars [Editor: Ranghars are Muslim Rajputs. Mr. Bajwa is noting that few, if any, Baluch troops are involved.] There is no real military target. The aim is to harass and overawe.
The impression Musharraf gave to USA , why he launched the military action was that the Baloch attacked him with rockets when he visited Marri Agency which is a white lie. No rocket fell 5 km near Musharraf.
Meanwhile, Back in the NWFP its time for the locals to can their outrage over the US strike. At least 4, and possibly 5, foreigners were killed. They had come for a dinner to which Al Qaeda Number 2 was invited but he did not turn up himself. The locals knew exactly who they were having for dinner. They are guilty of using innocents to shield their bloody-handed guests; the outrage should be on our side, not theirs.
The New York Times: All The News That Fit To Make Up American media is in a death spiral. It learns nothing from its mistakes, and steadily moves forward to make fresh ones. Such is the arrogance of the 4th Estate.
The New York Times has really emptied the Jiffy John truck on its own head; alas, it seems that that NYT, whose motto is "All The News That's Fit To Print" is so awash in sewerage that the fresh load simply passes unnoticed.
Thanks to Mike Thompson we learn that NYT featured a photograph of a group of locals were the US strike took place, with an American missile.
Turns out the American missile is a Soviet medium artillery shell. Even your editor, who cannot tell the difference between a horse and an elephant at 10 paces can see its an artillery shell.
Its very odd that the US media will go to any extent to find flaws in information given out by the government, but will swallow any cock-and-bull story given by insurgents and those who harbor them.
Nothing To Do With the Terror War but we need a lighter moment after the above story. This is from Britain.
Man has pet parrot. Parrot takes to saying, in man's girlfriend's voice, "Hi, Greg," "Cant wait to see you, Greg", "I love you, Greg" and so on. Whenever the word "Greg" is mentioned on TV, parrot makes smooching sounds.
Man thinks: this is odd, my name isn't Greg. I'm Chris". Then man notices girlfriend is turning several hues of rainbow whenever the parrot goes into his act.
Man put two and four together. Girlfriend admits to affair with said Greg while man is at work. Man tosses out girlfriend.
Then man tosses out parrot. Good riddance to the girl, man says, but my heart is broken about the parrot. I tried to get him to stop this Greg thing, but I couldn't. It was just too much.
Girlfriend says she understands she had to go. She cant quite believe the parrot went too. "Chris spent more time talking to that parrot than he did to me," she told the press.

0230 GMT January 17, 2006

Nigeria: Shell Pulls Personnel From Oil Fields following attacks by local insurgents who say they are determined to shut down oil production in the delta region. Approximately 100,000 bbl/day of production is being lost.
Meanwhile, the Nigerian Army appears to have launched an operation in the region: locals first spoke of heavy firing, but now say fighting has died down.
Pakistan Missile Strike Still no clarity on events. US says it does not know if Al Qaeda No. 2 was killed: Pakistan says he was not present. Pakistan says US killed 18 innocent people; others say 8 foreigners were quickly taken away by locals and buried elsewhere. We'd mentioned reports the FBI is doing DNA analysis on some of the dead; FBI says it is ready but hasn't been asked.
US source says if Zawahiri is alive, US should know by end of the week; if he is dead, its going to be harder to establish.
Meanwhile, some good news: 4 children who were thought among the dead have turned up - someone they managed to escape during the strikes. Thus, the official toll is now 13, not 18 as reported earlier, and locals tell Jang of Pakistan they buried 13 people.
China Steps Up Cuba Ties Reader marcopetroni sends a Knight-Ridder report that China is upping its ties and investment in Cuba, with trade now at $1 billion/annually. China is investing in oil and metals production.
Report says PRC has established a listening station in Cuba.
The Cuba deal comes along with increasing PRC penetration of US's backyard, all Latin America trade with PRC has reached $22-billion.
Here's The First Energy Success in Afghanistan A $3.5-billion, 1680-km gas pipeline is to be constructed from Turkmenistan, through Herat, Kandahar, Quetta, Multan, and join the Indian pipeline system at Fazilka in the Punjab. All 3 countries will take gas from the pipeline, which will deliver 30 billion cubic meters annually. Turkmenistan proven gas reserves are 21 trillion cubic meters. (Jang's figures, of 2.8 trillion cubic feet, should read cubic meters, and are only for the Daultabad gas field which is the production point for the pipeline. Our figures are from and official Turkmenistan statement reported by Tass via BBC Monitoring November 16, 2004. http://beyondutopia.tripod.com/caspian/turkmenistan-reserves.htm)
This pipeline is separate from the proposed Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline. There are other pipelines under study to meet India's burgeoning energy demand.
The US is against the Iran-India pipeline, which is why US is willing to recognize India's N-armed status and start working with Delhi to increase civilian N-energy production. In our humble opinion, India needs Iranian gas now rather than American N-electricity later; both projects will have to go through.
Taliban Having Success in Derailing NATO's Afghan Mission A series of bombings in the last 10 days has left 50 dead in Southern Afghanistan as NATO prepares to take over the area from the US. The Dutch, who were not particularly happy even before, are going all wobbly at the prospect of casualties; its being speculated the increased activity is to split the Dutch off from the proposed 6000 troop force, half of which is British; Netherlands is 2nd largest contributor.
UK says it cannot make up the shortfall is Dutch pull out; suggestions are being made US may have to delay its planned 2000 troop reduction in the south.

0230 GMT January 16, 2006

Iran: Outline of an American Consensus Emerges Senator John McCain has taken the bull by the horns and issued a statement on Iran that looks like it could become the consensus position. As a start, Senator Diane Feinstein of California, who is well to the left of the American political spectrum, says she agrees with Senator McCain. Meanwhile, Senator Evan Bayh, a moderate Democrat, has blasted Iran - and is talking along the same lines as Mr. McCain. Senator Trent Lott, a Republican, has risen to the administration's defense and says the administration hasn't ignored the issued, and has been working on it.
So enough excitement already: four Senators from different sides talking sensibly about Iran, what is it they are saying?
Quite simply, diplomacy must continue, military action must be a last resort, but it has to be clear that it comes into play should diplomacy fail. We can't argue with that; and it seems to us in a way perhaps Mr. Bush's shooting himself in the foot on his Iran options by messing up Iraq may work out yet. Because the administration has no credibility left for direct military action, it has been going along with the Europeans on the diplomatic front, and thanks to Iran's new president, a solid western consensus is forming. Had the US gone into Iran in late 2003 or early 2004 - turned right and kept going after the fall of Baghdad as the expression went, with the world already against Gulf II, who knows where matters would have gone.
Senator McCain has once again shown why he should be President after President Bush - and also shown why he will never be US president. He has said, in a low-key and completely sensible way that if Russia/China don't go along with sanctions, the US has to work to impose them anyway, outside the UN framework. If Iran retaliates using oil - as it is threatening - then the US will simply have to pay more for its gasoline. The military option is hardly optimum, Mr. McCain clearly indicates, but it is a whole lot better than a N-armed Iran.
Clear presidential qualities here: straight-shooting, zero spin, there are no easy options, the country will have to accept economic sacrifice, we have to do what we have to do and we will not be deterred. No rosy predictions of easy victory, either. Things haven't gotten to the point where people have started talking about casualties, but we can be certain when the time comes, Mr. McCain will continue his straight talk.
It is precisely these qualities that ensure he can never become president. Senator McCain's penchant for straight talk extends to all his dealings. Among other things he has done his best to break the power of campaign money in the American system of governance. People of his honesty and frankness lack the ability to make the thousands of compromises neccessary to be US president - or indeed the head of any country.
Mr. George Galloway Gets A Bar To His Klasse Klowne Award Way to go, Georgie Boy. You are the first double awardee.
Mike Thompson sends us a blog report on GG's latest. He is taking part in a hugely popular TV show called "The Big House"; we wont go into details, but the main point is that it requires contestants to be isolated and act stupid - hope you're proud of yourself, American media, this is your influence at work across the Big Pond.
So fellow Members of Parliament have not taken it kindly that he is not available to his constituents, moreover, he has missed a crucial debate which affects his constituency. Seems harmless to us, but the Brits are not happy.
Further, GG is seen on TV dressed as Dracula and also pretending to be a cat - we wont go into this either, because its a bit embarrassing for us to detail what he did as part of his cat act. The cat act has really bent MPs and citizens out of shape; says one MP: "He is becoming one of the biggest laughing stocks in London politics since the Second World War."
Now, we don't want to be party poopers here, but frankly we don't see what the fuss is. So far there is no way he could earn a bar to his Klasse Klowne award.
No sir. The reason he gets his award is that he is to donate his TV earnings to charity. And it so happens the charity in question, Interpal, is designated by the US government as a global terrorist organization. That's why GG gets the award: this is past stupid, considering he is likely to be indicted in the US at some point for lying to Congress about the money he took from Saddam. Notice we did not say for taking money from Saddam. That was his right. But he perjured himself before Congress by saying he didn't. So the charge will be perjury. Now the US will get another indictment out, for funding a terrorist organization.
Missed Zawahiri Strike More confusion: US sources admit to Predators, but people are talking about jets. Apparently light flares were dropped before the attack; this also baffles us, we thought Predator can see in the dark and why give away what's coming by dropping flares. More talk of a drone hanging around for 3-4 days before the attack - a dead give away that bad things are going to happen. why would Zawahiri hang around waiting to get bopped?
Back to Iranian Baluchistan The story so far: Iran arrests several members of an insurgent group that is based in Pakistan Baluchistan. The group kidnaps 9 Iranian border guards in retaliation. Iran says US is working with Al Qaeda and is responsible for the kidnapping; rejects insurgent demand to release prisoners in return for the border guards.
Iran does another round of arrests, and we'd predicted the insurgents would do something in retaliation.
We're surprised at how quickly they've reacted: they've now kidnapped 3 Turkish tourists who were paragliding in Iranian Baluchistan - please don't ask us to explain this, its not that we don't do weird, some things are beyond weird. Iran says its the same US-Al Qaeda group at work. Turkish sources say the kidnappers are just ordinary criminals and drug smugglers, they are asking for a one million Euro ransom for each tourist.
Can't say we're impressed by the sophistication of Iran propaganda - US and Al Qaeda teaming up to create problems in Iranian Baluchistan while US is doing its best to slaughter every AQ person it learns about? Someone give us a break.

0230 GMT January 15, 2006

Al Qaeda No. 2 Not Killed in Raid say the Pakistanis; for the rest, there are so many contradictory reports that we are not going to make any attempt to sort them out.
US DOD says it is unaware of any operation in the area, which would make sense if it was conducted by the CIA. But one source says there are 3 meter deep craters where the attack took place; that does not look like Predators with Hellfires, which is what the CIA uses, but air delivered bombs. Another source says a drone visited the area for many days before the attack; if so, surely no one expected to kill any terrorist/insurgent because presumably by now everyone has figured out a drone hanging around means an attack is coming.
The Pakistanis took away four bodies for identification and say 5 foreigners were killed. The locals say there were no foreigners, and the dead include 24 from one extended family. The Pakistanis say 18 people were killed, including 10 women and children.
Some people say 4 missiles were used; others speak of 10; others say there were 8 explosions.
Meanwhile Xinhua says the US FBI will conduct forensic tests to determine the identities of the dead, which then raises the question of how come Pakistan says Zawahiri is not among the dead.
Also meanwhile, Pakistan has summoned the US ambassador to protest the strike and killing of civilians - but then why agree to let the US conduct forensic tests, and why issue a statement saying that its unfortunate if civilians were killed, but the locals have a responsibility to keep foreigners out of the area.
And the Pakistan information minister says, to debka.com, no bodies were removed and there were no Al Qaeda people among the dead.
Saddam Chief Judge Resigns says BBC, but suggests this may be a ploy to deflect criticism he has been too lenient on Saddam and company. The judge is said to be determined to be polite to the maximum, no matter what the provocation from the Saddam side, with the intention of showing the world this is not a Saddam-era trial. The judge's resignation will be seen as a blow to the trial - we are not clear why - and he may be hoping that Iraq/US will "persuade" him to stay on, whereupon he is free to conduct the trial as he sees best.
Read BBC's editorial assertion that the trial is not a farce and is being conducted successfully. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4556268.stm
Mr. Kofi Annan Says UN Force Needed for Dafur because the African Union force cannot control a deteriorating situation, but Sudan would have to agree before a UN force could be deployed. Sudan says it does not so agree. End of the matter.
We thought the whole point of the Annan Doctrine was that when there is violation of human rights on a vast scale, the UN has every right to intervene whether or not the country in question agrees. Why on earth should Sudan agree to a UN force that will have the practical effect of hastening secession of yet another part of Sudan? The South already has won the right of secession, but that agreement was worked out with the consent of Khartoum as the latter could not win the civil war and saw no choice but to compromise. For Sudan to keep Dafur down is a simple matter so there is no need to compromise.
In fairness to Sudan, we need to mention a UN report says everyone involved in the mess is guilty of crimes. That includes the Dafuris and others like Chad and Libya.

0230 GMT January 14, 2006

Pakistan Army Investigating If Al Qaeda Number 2 Killed in a US helicopter strike on a Pakistani village on the Afghan border. The Army told ABC that 18 people including civilians and 5 senior Al Qaeda leaders were killed, the Army is working to ID the bodies.
The US denies it staged any attack; however, earlier reports from locals say that at least 3 "aircraft" did attack the village, killing the family of at least one man.
Truth to tell, if Zawahiri is dead, it is of little consequence. The US has gotten into the propaganda habit of making Al Qaeda to be much more effective and important than it is, though of course it is the constant US/Western/Allied pressure that has ripped the organization - such as it was - to shreds.
But we will nonetheless be relieved; Mr. Zawahiri has gotten quite tiresome with his ridiculous speeches and absurd claims. Its not all that difficult to become an Orbat.com Klasse Klowne; but to stay one you have to keep reinventing yourself, not going same old same old.
Hugo: Be Warned, You Are in Danger of Losing Your Klasse Klowne Status Frankly, we are disappointed in Mr. Hugo Chavez. He made a promising start as a Klasse Klowne, and we looked forward to many amusing months, if not years, of his pronouncements.
But what is his latest on learning the US has refused Spain permission to export transport/MR aircraft to Venezuela because US technology is involved? Mr. Chavez says this is "horrific imperialism".
Come on, old buddy, don't be such a crashing bore. Do you really think the US owes it you to allow you to buy US technology which you will use against the US's interests? Now you're acting like a temper-tantrum throwing little boy. Being the head of the new socialist revolution - self-proclaimed - means acting responsibly. We thought your comments about selling US F-16s to Cuba and China were worth a few laughs - that's the correct response, not this pathetic whining.
Meanwhile, An Al Qaeda Fantasy AQ says one of its suicide bombers killed 10 US soldiers in Fallujah. Locals say nine civilians were injured when a suicide bomber detonated explosives.
We're a bit surprised, because normally AQ waits till the victim confirms the hit before taking credit. A wise policy, protects against being made to look like idiots - as has happened in this case.
We wonder if the pressure is starting to tell - no, its not the US pressure we're talking about. Apparently Iraqis in Anbar Province are fed up of AQ and foreign insurgents and their senseless killing of locals, and have for some months been turning in foreign insurgents at every opportunity. That has to create a real problem.
Iran Accuses West of N-Hypocrisy The west has nuclear weapons and they want to keep us from getting them, says Iran. This is hypocritical etc etc etc., we will not be bowed, etc etc etc, like rocks in the desert the coyotes piddle on or whatever etc etc.
We have news for the Iranians. You got it dead right, brothers. Its hypocrisy. And you and whose aunt are going to do what about it, do tell us? The fact is, they have the power, you don't. You want power, they will squash you. That's the way the power game is played, there's no right or wrong.
You want power, you have to fight for it. You believe you should have N-weapons; looking at it from your viewpoint, you have every right. So go for it, and take the consequences. But stop this frightful whining and posturing, will you?
A Definition of Courage From the London Times: "A woman of 88 who was trapped in her car for six days after driving off the road into blackberry brambles stayed alive by wiping condensation off the windscreen with a towel and sucking the moisture." This happened in Washington State. A lot of praying was involved. This lady has got guts and determination. Hats off and all that.
We Want Bill, Not Tony Also from the London Times: "Former US President Bill Clinton has given Prime Minister Tony Blair his backing as a future Secretary General of the United Nations. Mr Clinton said Mr Blair would make a "good" head for the international organization when he steps down as Prime Minister, as he has promised he will before the next General Election. Current Secretary General Kofi Annan's term in office ends on December 31 this year. While most Westminster-watchers believe Mr Blair hopes to stay in 10 Downing Street until 2008 at least, he is thought to be ambitious to move on to another leading role on the world stage and few would be as tempting as the top UN post."
This is most upsetting. We hoped Bill would run - he would win hands down regardless of what Mr. Bush wanted. We are still hoping this is a clever ploy by Mr. Clinton, as in: "Bill, why are you suggesting Tony's name? You should go for the job." Mr. Clinton: "Me? You mean little ol' dumb me? Gwarsh, I'd never think I could do a good job of such an important position". Etc etc

0230 GMT January 13, 2006

More Sri Lanka Casualties Nine Sri Lanka sailors died when their bus hit a Claymore mine. Almost 80 Sri Lanka servicemen have been killed from December onward, in renewed attacks by the rebel LTTE.
The LTTE denies it is behind the attacks; instead, it says, 40 of its troops have been killed by the Sri Lanka military.
Euro 3 Want Iran Referred to UN Security Council and Russia says it will not block referral.
But hold the celebrations, folks. DPRK was cited by the UNSC 3 years ago and the result has been zip, zero, nada, nothing.
Moreover, if any move is made for sanctions, Russia and PRC will veto it.
Iran Revolutionary Guard Commanders' Air Crash Naturally there is intense speculation that the aircraft was sabotaged and that people opposed to the current Prime Minister - a former Revolutionary Guard commander who has former Guard officers in charge of almost every important ministry - are responsible.
Our advice to readers is that while sabotage is a possibility, there is nothing so far that indicates this might have happened. People are saying: "the aircraft had a range of 3000-miles etc and could not have run out of fuel on an internal flight" but this is proof of precisely nothing. There is no rule that says each internal flight must begin with full tanks.
Both engines quitting does suggest a fuel problem, the one photograph we have seen in the media, if authentic, shows no sign of fire. Moreover, the aircraft is said to have circled its destination airfield twice trying to get its nose wheel down - unsuccessful.
Another argument being made is: with so many important Guard commanders on board surely every effort would have been made to ensure the plane was in tip-top condition, so it has to be sabotage. Another non-sequitor, we are afraid, as anyone familiar with 3rd world air maintenance procedures is concerned.
Baluchistan President Musharraf accuses the leader of the rebel Bugati tribe of taking support from India; the leader has denied it.
Meanwhile, another gas pipeline attack took place.
Somalia Fighting BBC says two clans have been fighting over pasture and water in Central Somalia for several months and the local population has fled.
Turks Expand Kurdistan Ties As happens frequently to us, we were clueless on this development: the Turks have decided to woo Iraqi Kurdistan with trade and investment, and everyone, Turks and Kurds alike, are smiling. Kurdistan is landlocked, so it depends on Turkey for its imports/exports; Turkey has decided that the silken ties that bind work better than threats.
As BBC is careful to point out, it isn't all that simple: the Turks are very wary about the prospect of an independent Kurdistan; on the other side, Kurds are looking to Iraqi Kurdistan as their salvation and best hope for independence from their countries, mainly Turkey, Syria, and Iran.
Nonetheless, this is a very positive development; making love is preferable to making war.
Wow, what a blooper And then there are people like your editor, who is too old for the latter and gets no chance for the former.
But more seriously, folks, it wasn't the French Prime Minister's love story we discussed yesterday. The story belongs to the present French PM's rival for the position in the next election: that would be the hardline Interior Minister we should have been talking about. Luckily we caught this before anyone wrote in.
Mr. Chavez Is Annoyed because the US has pressured Brazil not to sell training jets: the aircraft in question make extensive use of US technology.
So Mr. Chavez says he has sent a delegation to Moscow to look for new fighters: the US supplied F-16s are 25 years old and need modernization, but the US is withholding spares. To look for alternate suppliers is Mr. Chavez's right, no one can complain about that.
He had earlier stated - Mr. Terry Shiflett advises us - that maybe he should take Venezuela's 20 F-16s and send them back to the US, or sell them half-half to China and Cuba.
Later Mr. Chavez said he was only thinking aloud.
We are mildly astonished he felt the need to back down on this small matter. Almost like a little boy who realizes he has pushed defiance too far.

0230 GMT January 12, 2006

Ukraine Parliament Sacks Government Over Russia Gas Deal A majority of parliament says the deal is treason etc. etc. We assume the cold weather is freezing Ukraine parliament's brains. all Russia wants is to eliminate the subsidy it gave Ukraine by pricing gas at 1/5th market. The motivation is political, agreed. But the decision to provide below-market gas was also political. Why weren't people complaining at that time? Ukraine has refused to continue obliging Russia politically, so the Russians have upped the price of gas. Where was Ukraine's parliament planning on getting the gas to make up for Russian supplies at a price 1/5th market? In the absence of a viable option, to say the government is committing treason is silly.
Ukraine's president says Parliament does not have the authority to sack the Prime Minister.
Iran Nuclear BBC says that those who sought reassurance in Iran's provocative N-moves as just testing the waters have to consider the growing possibility that the Iranian government has deliberately decided on a policy of confrontation with the west. This thought is occasioned by an Iranian act of parliament that requires the government to stop IAEA short-notice inspects.
America Has No Monopoly Of Craven Fools, we are happy to report on learning of the European Green Party's position on Iran. The Greens want the EU to stop threatening Iran because there is no proof that the latter has violated the NPT. Moreover, say the Greens, threats are unproductive because Iran can kick out IAEA inspectors and then the west will lose whatever control it has on Iran's N-program.
Message to Greens: Don't Bogart That Joint, My Friends. No need to pass it on to us, just stop smoking, will you?
Vive l'France! The French claim they are superior to everyone else. In matters of the heart, we gladly concede that they are. Listen to this.
French Prime Minister's wife walks out on him, goes off with lover. PM is heartbroken, begs her to come back. Meanwhile, to console himself, he starts an affair with a journalist. Madame PM has change of heart. Plane flies Madame PM, their son - and lover - back to France. Madame PM/son disembark into the waiting arms of PM; lover stays on board the aircraft, waving sadly to Madame PM, while shedding copious tears. No news yet on what the journalist thinks.
Madame PM and PM kiss and make up. France goes wild: this whole thing has been playing out in the press, from the start, and the return of Madam PM etc has been given full coverage on TV and in the newspapers.
What a country! Could this happen in America? Lets just say there is a statistical chance that the oxygen molecules in your room suddenly gather in one corner and you choke to death for lack of oxygen. A very slight chance, to be sure, but a chance. But the above story happening in America? Not a chance.

0230 GMT January 11, 2006

Iran N-Mess Gets Worse The other day Iran broke IAEA seals on its Nantez enrichment facility, placed two years ago as part of a Euro 3 N-freeze, and resumed activity. We didn't bother reporting this because its just another boring turn in the endless drama of the West's peaceful efforts to stop Iran from going nuclear.
We've argued that given the security threats Iran faces - or more accurately has brought on its own head by its determination to export Islamic fundamentalism - it has no choice but to go nuclear, and nothing short of force is going to stop it from going ahead. As such, discussing what's happening in the diplomatic arena to prevent Iran is a waste of time.
Now we are going to get another waste of time: moves are afoot to refer Iran to the UN Security Council for sanctions; given that neither Russia nor China are in favor of sanctions, this move is going to create more snooze conditions. And even if sanctions are imposed, is anyone going to stop buying Iranian oil? Is anyone prepared for the Iranians going berserk and doing something stupid like trying to block the Straits of Hormuz with sunken ships and a few thousand seamines?
Iran is years away from a bomb; common sense says that Iran should have played along with the E3 and broken out only when it was ready to test. By acting as it has done, Iran has shown that rationality has become a scarce commodity in that country's dealings with the world.
Please remember: when a dog gets rabid, you shoot it. You don't reason with it. Its best to prepare for the inevitable - make the hard decisions starting now - rather than once again improvise, as happened with Gulf 2.
Just Another Day on the North West Frontier On Saturday insurgent tribals, probably including Taliban, attacked a Pakistan Frontier Corps post in the NWFP, killing nine troops. The military retaliated with gunship strikes against houses suspected of harboring insurgents; at least 3 people were killed. Then US paratroopers from Afghanistan crossed the border and attacked the house of a Muslim cleric accused of harboring Taliban; five killed and two taken away - locals say 8 killed.
So with everyone in the mood for a jolly bash, insurgents including Taliban attacked another outpost Tuesday, killing seven regular and paramilitary soldiers. The outpost fought back, government claims 14 insurgents killed.
To quote the immortal Philip K. Dick: And so it goes.
Naturally readers will want to know about Baluchistan. Jang of Pakistan reports three exchanges of fire between unknown persons and Frontier Corps troops; no casualties; and one instance of a rocket attack by insurgents, no casualties.
Iran: the Gazprom of the East Well, we exaggerate. Gazprom upped its gas price for Ukraine by a factor of five, Iran has merely doubled the price for electricity it supplies to the Pakistan port of Gwader in the extreme west of Pakistan. Pakistan paid 3 cents/kwh; now Iran wants 6 cents/kwh because, it says, it has to invest in upgrading transmission lines.
We thought the Russians were quite within their rights to charge what they wanted for their gas; and we think the Iranians have the right to charge what they want for their electricity.

0230 GMT January 10, 2006

Head of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Dies when an Iranian Air Force Falcon crashed. It is said that both engines failed. A IRGC division commander, a missile brigade commander, and other IRGC officers were among the 11-13 dead.
BBC says that the US embargo has made it difficult for Iran to get spare parts for its transport aircraft. This explanation makes no sense. Why is Iran flying US origin aircraft if spares are a problem? Iran can buy transport aircraft from anywhere else. The worst crash in Iranian history was when an Il-76 with 303 troops went down; there is no spares problem with Russia. The Falcon, incidentally is a French plane; US engines are a popular option, but spares are easily available through 3rd countries - including France.
Iran Arrests 15 In Border Guard Kidnapping Case We'd mentioned a few days ago that Iran is accusing the US of tying up with Al Qaeda to create problems for Iran, including the kidnapping of 8 border guards on the Pakistan frontier. Seeing as Al Qaeda is at war with the US, and considering Iran is a haven for wanted Al Qaeda leaders, we think the idea of a US- Al Qaeda link to put pressure on Iran is ludicrous, but as they say in America, "whatever".
Now Iran has arrested 15 people it says are connected with the group that kidnapped the border guards.
The group responsible is asking Iran to trade 16 jailed members for its guards. So now Iran has 31 members of the group in custody. We assume the next step will be for the group to kidnap more Iranians.
India and Baluchistan: The Other Shoe Drops It was just a matter of time before Pakistan officially brought up the subject of Indian intervention in Baluchistan, and President Musharraf has fired the first salvo from the Pakistan side in a TV interview with an Indian affiliate of CNN.
It is unclear at this point how, when, where this is going to play out vis-a-vis the Kashmir peace process.
We are far away from Delhi, but we hear rumors that a significant faction of Indian decision-makers believes that with border fencing the Kashmir insurgency is being beaten down without Pakistan's help, and that Pakistan in any case will play a double game: it will pretend to crack down on terrorists but will continue to fund, train, and equip them, albeit, more subtly than it has in the past. It is thought that President Musharraf cannot bring the Kashmir terror groups to heel because he will lose the support of the army - to say nothing of the people of Pakistan.
Given the above, India's calculation is that it has everything to gain from intervening in Baluchistan - another front against Pakistan, and nothing to lose.
Letter from Walter E. Wallis The constitution does not mandate a specific wording to a declaration of war - the founding fathers never foresaw a time when a congress would sort of declare war but hold back enough to allow plausible deniability in case it does not go well. My war was declared when the U.N. Treaty was approved and the Security Council approved resistance to the NK invasion. This current war against Iraq was approved back when Dad was president, then put on hold until the truce was violated.
Letter from James P. Freemon How do you declare a war against something other that a nation state? Did Congress declare war against the Barbary Pirates? I don't know for sure, but I do know we fought them. How do you legally declare war on a loose gaggle of semi-aligned militant groups, none of which really owns any territory, but exist within the population of many separate nation states?
It's very tough to get your arms around this conflict and figure out who the 'enemy' is and where to fight them, much less legally declare a WAR against them. If you do declare a legal 'war' against them, what will ultimately determine victory or defeat?
There is nobody on the other side who can surrender or even sue for peace.

0230 GMT January 9, 2006

Are We At War Yet? Every time serious debate about the administration's domestic surveillance comes up, there is reference to the President's belief that his powers cannot be constrained in wartime. Pundits gravely pontificate on the need to balance individual rights with the wartime needs of national security. And so on.
Sorry to be a party pooper, but since when is the US at war?
This may seem an odd question coming from orbat.com, because we've been insisting the US is at war since the earliest days of our news update.
We are at war as a practical matter of fact. But we are not legally at war. The President has not asked Congress for a declaration of war, even though he was entitled to ask for one after 9/11, an event that in terms of casualties was worse than Pearl Harbor.
Should the President ask for a declaration of war, orbat.com will back him 100%. Until then, we are not at war.
And to us, at least, that is precisely the problem. We should be at war. That the administration has not bothered to make its case is just one more example of how it is not seriously pursuing the global war on terror.
Our liberal friends worry that the administration is making too much of too little. Our worry is that the administration is making too little of a very serious situation.
Head of Spain's Army Under House Arrest likely to be demoted and dismissed, says London Times. He warned against giving Catalonia the autonomy the province is demanding and which the present prime minister, who depends on Catlan parties for his positions, is likely to give. The general has never made political statements before; all political parties have welcomed the government's action against him.
Spain is just one of many countries in Europe - and the rest of the world - where nationalism is making a resounding return. We've seen in the Balkans and with the fall of the Soviet Union that the question is no longer: "should different regions within a country have the right to go their own way?" but rather, "how do we best manage the change process?" The UK is an example of a country moving to give greater autonomy to its regions. Its possible one day to conceive of Europe as consisting of a hundred or more nations. This is an unexpected, but natural corollary of the move toward one world. Nations formed because of the need for security and because they benefited from free trade. But if the whole world is free to trade as it wants, and if security is no longer an issue, as is true for Europe, then there is no reason Europe nations cannot return to their constituent units, if that is what people want.
For the US, this trend has opportunities and dangers. Opportunities because there is one less power block to challenge American hegemony. A Europe of Six - the old Common Market - could have been a formidable competitor in every way to America. But a Europe of 25 - or whatever it is now - and even more so a Europe of 50 cannot challenge America politically. Conversely, however, if Europeans can amicably divorce each other and still prosper, people in America can start getting the same idea. To some extent loose talk is already common; for example, the notion promoted by some Hispanics that North America must become a continent of three nations: America, Canada, and a Spanish nation. Pacific Northwesterners dream of a future federation that would include Canadian British Columbia. Today such talk may seem nonsensical - an American Hispanic nation - or whimsical - a Pacific Northwest nation. Tomorrow, however, may bring different political configurations.
Denmark and the Prophet Readers may recall a furor in the Islamic world when a Danish newspaper published cartoons of the Prophet that Muslims considered sacrilegious . Technically, of course, any image of the Prophet in any context is sacrilege. Mike Thompson forwards an article where a Danish media person notes that Danish law permits caricatures of Jesus in the name of free speech. So by taking umbrage at caricatures of the Prophet, he says, Muslims are showing they do not respect Danish culture and ways.
An interesting point for our multi-cultural friends to ponder.

0230 GMT January 8, 2006

The Criminals Want Law and Order, Please Mike Thompson sends a hilarious account of how the militant factions in Palestine, responsible for the current state of anarchy, now demand a government crackdown on - please get this - anarchy.
Amusing as it is, illogical it is not. Criminals need order to operate. Otherwise they spend so much time protecting themselves - just as ordinary citizens have to do - that they cannot conduct their criminal activities in peace.
We Knew It: US Conducts Joint Operations With Al Qaeda Or so says Iran. Several Iranian border guards have been kidnapped by a Sunni anti-Iranian government group operating in Pakistan. The group demands the release of its members in Iranian custody.
The Iranian government could have chosen to deal with this in mature fashion, but that's asking too much. So it has put out the US is working with terrorists such as Al Qaeda and is behind the kidnapping.
Now, on one level we can hardly blame the Iranians for this kind of over-the-top verbiage. Iran is sheltering a significant part of what remains of Al Qaeda, so one would think they should be the last ones to bring up AQ. The Iranians, however, have obviously learned this technique from Americans, who use it at every opportunity in every aspect of their lives.
Baluchistan Press reports, based on information given by the Pakistan government, say insurgents killed 8 Frontier Corps troops after storming a newly-set up outpost on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border; several other troops are missing, though some have managed to return to camp.
In another incident, eight members of a mullah's family were killed when Pakistani helicopters attacked his house. He is on good terms with a top Taliban official who is being sought by the US. The locals say US troops were involved and seized four people at the site.
Five members of a pro-government tribal leader were killed in an ambush.
Editor We fully appreciate the US needs to run down every Taliban leader for the sake of Afghanistan's security. On the other hand, we find this report, if true, to be worrisome. Absolutely the last thing the US needs to do is to get involved in the escalating violence in Baluchistan. We are not saying there is an easy answer to the need to catch Taliban versus the need to stay on the locals' right side. We are simply saying this is not a good situation.
Its Time To Say Farewell to Mr. Sharon His own doctor says that Mr. Sharon will survive because he is a strong person, but that he cannot continue as PM of Israel.
We offer our sympathies to Mr. Sharon's family and to the people of Israel. We all losers because of this loss.
Head of UN Forces Haiti Kills Himself He was a 3-star Brazilian general and was found dead of a gunshot wound in his hotel room. No details.
Can't Say This News Causes us Grief Now Al Arabiya, the Al Jazerra wannabe, is getting it in the neck - from the Palestinians. The station aired a documentary which tells how women suicide bombers are pressured by men to give up their lives, and Fatah, the "official" Palestine terror group, doesn't like it. They are giving the media outlet a day to apologize or face the consequences, which will include a shut down of their Palestine office.
From Peg Schorfheide Quote from http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/03/20030317-7.html "The regime has a history of reckless aggression in the Middle East. It has a deep hatred of America and our friends. And it has aided, trained and harbored terrorists, including operatives of al Qaeda." Reader Schorfheide wants to know if this sounds like the administration was clueless about the terrorist threat, and notes that WMD were never the sole reason for going to war with Saddam.
Editor Ms. Schorfheide is, of course, quite correct: the administration several times brought up the Iraq-Al Qaeda connection. But then it dropped the matter because the evidence was bad from the start. The argument that was going on involved questions such as did Osama get treatment in Iraq, and did a deputy of his visit. The failure of the administration to get documents translated is in itself proof of how quickly Washington lost interest in its own argument.
The truth is, the US had no sources worth a dime in Iraq, Iran, or Afghanistan. The CIA's Directorate of Operations had been gutted after the Berlin Wall came down and it was going to be all hi-tech from then on. Luckily for the US, old Afghan hands were recalled and inserted back into Afghanistan in one of the most successful operations ever undertaken by the CIA. But there were no Iraq and Iran hands to begin with.
Of course, the one thing that cannot be pinned on the administration is the rundown of the CIA's DO. That was done on Mr. Clinton's watch. The convention in Washington is that you do not attack the previous administration for its lapses; not because of any noble reason, but because want a pass when you become history. The lack of accountability among governments in general is simply astounding.
From Paul Danish But implied in this story (failure of US to analyze Iraq documents) is an even worse offense. By sun-down 11 September 2001 is was blindingly clear that the U.S. would be needing tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of Arabic, Farsi, and Pashtoon speakers.
Four years later, where are they? There should have been a major investment in language training both at the university and secondary school level. It obviously was never made. Shortly after the Soviets launched Sputnik, such an investment in language training was made by the Eisenhower and Kennedy Administrations, and it produced results. A similar investment today would probably be even more productive, if for no other reason than the capabilities of computer assisted instruction. The fact that such an investment hasn't been made is really unforgivable -- and the consequence of not making it is self-evident in the Weekly Standard story.
Editor Many of our readers are not going to like what we are about to say, but it has to be said. Gulf II and subsequent has been the province of carpetbaggers. Once they got what they wanted, they pushed off, leaving the mess they had created to others to sort out. One lot of baggers includes Mr. Pearle, Mr. Wolfowitz, and Mr. Feith. With Israel secure, they bowed out. Another includes Mr. Rumsfeld. He was interested in Iraq only up to the point he could prove his shtick about small ground forces backed by airpower. He has continued steadfastly with this failed, worn theme, and has refused to give the military the means to do the job. Another lot include people like Mr. Bremmer, the infamous administrator for Iraq.
Since these people did not lead America to Iraq for the sake of America, they have had no stake in anything but their own interests. This is why the translation problem - which of course dates back to 9/11 and is not a unique function of Gulf II - has never been tackled.
The same opportunism is evident in the way Homeland Security has been tackled.
The real heroes in Iraq have been the military, which is starting to get grudging respect from the mainstream media. They have fought the military war with too few resources, and fought the peace also without resources or training or official mission. As for the undercover war, the CIA cannot take the credit it is due for obvious reasons.

0230 GMT January 7, 2006

Venezuela Assembly Meets With No Opposition Since the opposition boycotted the parliamentary elections, Mr.Chavez's party won all 167 seats. So now parliament is in session, with no opposition members. BBC says this is the first time in 50 years there are no opposition members.
This is not a situation amenable to easy statements. The opposition did not show up at the polls, so what is Mr. Chavez to do? On the other hand, there is something hugely distasteful about this. Can a country seat just one party in parliament and still call itself democratic?
Baluchistan insurgents destroyed a TV repeater station in Baluchistan and rocketed a Frontier Corps post with no casualties. A Pakistan UAV on a reconnaissance mission crashed.
Sri Lanka's LTTE Strikes Again Five sailors are dead and 10 missing after an attack by suspected LTTE insurgents. We don't know how long the ceasefire is going to hold, at this rate. This is the third significant attack in the past weeks.
Pat Robertson is God's Wrath on America Mr. Robertson says that the wrath of God struck down Mr. Sharon of Israel because Mr. Sharon divided the Holy Land between the Jews and the Arabs. Mr. Robertson is a personal friend of Mr. Sharon's, by the way.
To quote BBC: "You read the Bible: This is my land, and for any prime minister of Israel who decides he's going to carve it up and give it away, God says no, this is mine," he said.
Your editor feels so humbled by Mr. Robertson's vastly superior of the Bible. Your editor has never managed to find any references to Israeli prime ministers in the Holy Book.
Your editor, Ravi Rikhye, says that America has been afflicted by Pat Robertson because America has denied God.
On what authority does Ravi speak, someone may ask. The same authority by which Mr. Robertson speaks. He has appointed himself a spokesman for God, so has your editor.
Oh, someone will ask, so you claim you are as good looking and as rich as Pat Robertson? Here, we must admit, your editor is at a disadvantage: Mr. Robertson is better looking and of course, far, far richer. But then Mr. Robertson has been in the God business for ever, your editor has just declared himself a minute ago.

0230 GMT January 6, 2006

Mr. Sharon In Induced Coma This is part of the treatment, we cant explain why not being medically savvy. We've been reading the blogs, and the general consensus of the medical comments, for whatever they are worth, is that with this type of stroke, whether Mr. Sharon lives or dies, his days as leader of Israel are over.
Personally, we feel bad about this. Mr. Sharon had become transformed, in our eyes, from the roadblock to peace to the the force for peace in the Mideast. What happens now, no one knows.
Russia-Ukraine Gas Dispute as latter agrees to pay $230 per 1000 cubic meters, Russia's demanded price. Some very complicated arrangement to save Ukraine's face is being resorted to: (a) Russia will increase its transit payments to Ukraine, but there will no longer be a barter arrangement, Ukraine will pay cash. (b) Russia will provide help to Ukraine for the latter to adjust to the new price. (c) Russian gas for Ukraine will be sent to a third country which will add the gas to its own exports to Ukraine and blend the price, so that Ukraine will appear to be paying less than $230.
That made no sense? Don't blame us. It didn't make sense to us either, but that's the best we can do from reports.
So, doubtless the media will now announce a great victory for Ukraine. The Bad Bear has been smacked down. Hey, if I got paid five times more for my work, overnight, I wouldn't mind taking a few smacks and letting the other side boast about how they'd fixed me. Just give me the cash, please.
Baluchistan insurgents blew up two power-supply cable pylons, cutting electricity to a district in which anti-insurgent operations are taking place.
The security forces also had a success: they killed one person and arrested several others who, on interrogation, revealed the location of 4 landmines that they had planted as part of an attack on a natural gas installation.
BBC quotes Baluchistan police as saying rebels blew up a gas pipeline. Jang of Pakistan, from whom we got the first two stories, did not carry this story.
More Moral Equivalence The US says a bomb aimed at a house with 3 insurgents went off by 20 meters and killed six civilians in another house. US is investigating. Washington Post had reported the initial story in a big story on its inside pages - US Airstrike Kills 12 Civilians was the bold headline.
Meanwhile, insurgents killed 134 people in Iraq. This got about the same space as the US killing the civilians, and of course not a word of condemnation from the WashPo.
Hello, there, WashPo? This is Orbat.com waving its hand before your eyes to see if there is any reaction. The US killed those civilians accidentally and is investigating. There will doubtless be compensation and apologies. The insurgents deliberately killed 134 people, including bombing a funeral procession. Nice guys, the insurgents, no? This merits some moral outrage from you. Or is that too much to ask?
Sniper Heaven We've said this before, our feelings about snipers are ambiguous. We wonder what kind of a person can just calmly put a living human being in the cross hairs and kill them, just like that. Your editor could never be a sniper - he is ignoring the basic reality that the only time he can ever get six shots on the target (we're not saying within the circles) is with a .25 automatic pistol at 25 feet; anything bigger than that or further away than that, your editor is more dangerous to his own side. Your editor is assuming, in some Walter Mitty type fashion, that he can shoot straight. He could never be a sniper.
Which is why your editor is delighted there are people like the one Mike Thompson told the editor about. This is a US Marine with 2nd Division who has already racked up 55 to 65 kills, including one at 1250 meters, exceeding the accuracy of the scope by 250 meters. It is said he had to adjust 12 feet for windage at that distance.
This young man has no qualms about putting away insurgents, calmly congratulating himself on a job well done, then going back to get another insurgent. We congratulate him
So how come your editor is not having ambiguous feelings about this youngster? Quite simply, because Iraqi insurgents are not human beings. You follow their activities for just a week and you also will stop thinking of them as belonging to the same species as the rest of us.
One of the nice, jolly, fun things these insurgents were doing during the recent Ramadi offensives was barging into a house, taking the people inside hostage, locking them in a room, taking a few pot shots at US troops, and then getting out of there. When you take fire, you react, and the result often was a 250-lb or 500-lb bomb on the house, which killed the civilian captives who had no chance of fleeing.
Another blow struck for Islam.
We should clarify: we said Iraq insurgents because this lot is in Iraq. They aren't Iraqi, of course, but the jihadis from outside. To them Iraqis or anyone who doesn't agree with them are not human beings either.
Bumper Sticker in Takoma Park, Berkeley of the East and city of residence for your editor: "We are creating insurgents faster than we are killing them".
Hmmmm. So the corollary of that would be that if we didn't kill insurgents we wouldn't be creating them? So its all our fault, folks. Oooooh, we Americans are just so bad; everyone, kindly take your limp noodles and beat yourselves.
A very popular bumper sticker and sign in Takoma Park dates from spring 2003 and Gulf II. "War is not the answer". Agreed. Its not THE answer, because one can always capitulate or pretend there are no bad guys. As long as there is denial, war is not the answer. Who says us right wingers cant agree with the left wingers?
Yet another one, cute in its own way, nothing to do with Iraq: "Wouldn't it be great if the Pentagon had to hold bake sales to buy a B-1 and our schools had all they money they needed?" But, as is often the case, the ugly 4-letter word - FACT - rears its head. In 2004-05, US taxpayers spent $919-billion for school/higher education, $536 billion for schools alone. Hundreds of billions of private funds were spent in addition. Pentagon got $400-billion. US also spent about 15% of GNP on healthcare, or near 4 times defense spending. This is expected to climb to 17% in 2011, or $3 trillion.
What does that buy the US? A life expectancy 27th in the world. Cuba is 28th - with 1/25 US spending on health per capita. [Source: ucatlas.ucsc.edu/spend.php.]
No bang for the buck seems to be the motto of the US healthcare system. By and large, the same is true of education. Lots of people seem to think that if more money were thrown at education, the US would do better. US educational performance is the disgrace of the industrialized world, and almost all the reasons for it lie outside the province of money.
Which is not to say the Pentagon is the very model of bangs for bucks. Latest "say what, again?" figure we saw was in connection with the airship project we mentioned the other day. $11-billion to buy and operate 15 C-17 transport aircraft for 30 years. That's a squadron's worth of airlift, folks. A third of a billion smackeroos for one airlift squadron per year.

0230 GMT January 5, 2006

Israeli PM in Critical Condition after a brain hemorrhage. He is to undergo emergency surgery. The type of operation is used only as a last ditch affair. When asked about the PM's prognosis, his doctor says: "Let's be optimistic, some people survive".
The Israeli Finance Minister, Mr. Sharon's designated deputy, has taken over the government.
Meanwhile, Just Another Day in Palestine A Palestine group kidnaps a British human rights activist and her parents. She had brought them to Palestine to show them the positive side of the people. After a lot of international hoo ha they are released. The kidnappers say Britain must do more to pressure Israel, or else they will be forced to kidnap more westerners.
Unusually, the Palestine police actually act and arrest a man belonging to Al Aqsa, just one of the many groups in Palestine who cannot be put even to collecting garbage, because the garbage would go on strike at the indignity. Al Asqa, of course, sees itself as liberators of the Palestine people.
Al Aqsa men go on a rampage. They steal two bulldozers and head for a crossing on the Egyptian border. They close the crossing and tell people who have been waiting to cross to get lost. Egyptian Interior troops advance on the Al Aqsa lot. The troops have no orders to fire, and are pushed back by Al Aqsa gunfire. Two soldiers are killed. The Al Aqsa lot starts demolishing the border wall.
Egypt declares a curfew on its side, forces all shops to close, and cuts off power. This must be some terribly sophisticated game we at Orbat.com are too stupid to understand. Sort of like screaming: "If you don't stop hitting me I'm going to start hitting myself".
We breathlessly await further developments.
Russia-Ukraine Gas Clarification We need to clarify that when Russia stopped gas supply to Ukraine on January 1, because there are no pipelines that deliver specifically to Ukraine, Russia simply subtracted what it sells its neighbor and kept pumping the rest.
So when gas pressure dropped in Western Europe, it obviously was because Ukraine was diverting gas. There's no ifs and buts any more about that.
Law of Unintended Consequences - Iraq Petrol Shortage Now this is an interesting story we got from the Washington Post. There is a severe petrol shortage in Iraq. Part of the reason is simple: insurgents have been hitting the main petrol refinery. But part of the reason is more complex. With the end of Saddam and lifting of sanctions, which has improved the economic situation, 1 million cars have been imported into Iraq. So much more petrol is needed, and the infrastructure cant support more production.
The Iraqi government has substantially raised prices in an effort to curb the petrol subsidy, and we presume demand too: from five cents a gallon to 40 cents a gallon. The IMF says Iraq has to phase out the petrol subsidy as condition for writing off 80% of its $120 billion debt. In the Gulf petrol is running around 95 cents a gallon, so more raises are sure to come.
Our first thought was: What? No editorials in the WashPost about being unreliable suppliers, Mr. Putin is wanting only five times as much money from Ukraine; the Iraq government is wanting 8 times as much.
Our second thought was: so obviously things are a lot better that Iraqis can import so many cars. But because gas is hard to get and now nine times more expensive, we doubt many Iraqis are going around being cheerful about the improvement.
Our third thought was: that million car figure doesn't seem right. even at a low price of $10,000 per vehicle, that's $10-billion worth of cars. You can check it out, but we don't think the Iraqis have anywhere near that amount of cash to spend; they were impoverished by sanctions, and the figure represents 25% of Iraq's 2-year export earnings. Here's some figures for any eager beaver out there:
http://www.citizentribune.com/news/view_sections.asp?idcategory=47&idarticle=2308 quotes a US general as saying as there are 3 times as many cars in Iraq now as before the invasion.
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=27477 Oil exports make up 95% of exports; $18 billion 2004; $23 billion 2005; expected $28 billion 2006.
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=27477 says there are 1.5 million more vehicles on the road that in Saddam's time; gasoline use has surged 50%, from 4-million gallons per day to 6-million (so there were 3 million vehicles in Iraq before Gulf 2? Makes no sense). $3 billion of refined oil products imported - includes LNG for appliance, of which there has also been an import explosion. That 1.5 million, if correct, would include trucks, so - fudging figures - we could be talking of $20-billion in auto imports in two years. Makes even less sense.

Opinion: Media Reactions to the Gas Cutoff

What has astonished us is the venom with which Russia has been attacked by the western media. Much of the media has decided Mr. Putin has overplayed his hand because now the west understands Russia is an unreliable supplier and its been a wake up up call for the west and so on and so forth.
Actually, it seems to us that Mr. Putin has proved his reliability as a supplier: once it became clear Ukraine was diverting gas, Russia stepped up supplies to bring deliveries to Western Europe back to normal. This means in effect that Russia is prepared to lose substantial sums of money each day - it is in effect supplying Ukraine free gas - rather than disrupt supplies. Of course, anyone who knows Mr. Putin knows he will be presenting his bill to Ukraine.
Meanwhile, not a word in the media - the bit that we see, to be sure - about Ukraine not playing fair by diverting gas meant for the west.
As for wake-up-call. We opine the West Europeans woke up when the alarm went off, then emphatically thumped the clock to shut it up, and went back to snoozing.
Like Western Europe is going to do without Russian gas? One media source - American, we name no names to protect the guilty - gave your editor a sniggering when it proposed the Europeans think about nuclear power and LNG terminals so that gas can be brought in from other countries. Like the Euros are actually saying to themselves: "Oh, yes, lets build a hundred N-power plants, and a dozen LNG terminals so we can show that Pooty Poot who's boss around here"?
Dream on, western media. The heroin addict cannot dictate terms to the dealer, or don't you understand that?

Who Is To Blame for Palestine's Anarchy?

We need to all ask ourselves a question. The Israelis have been blaming the Palestine Authority for not maintaining order. Now, we all know the PA is too weak to maintain anything. So when the US went into Afghanistan, did it put Hamid Karzai in charge and let him fend for himself? It did not. It put a NATO coalition of 30,000 troops to help him build his country. When NATO went into the Balkans, did they simply change leaders and vamoose, uttering pieties about how the new governments of Former Yugoslavia needed to assert themselves? No. NATO put 60,000 troops into the job, and more than 20,000 still remain, 10 years later.
So why is everyone thinking the PA can do the job of housecleaning and establishing order without massive security help from the West? And since we assume western governments are composed of reasonably intelligent people, we assume the west knows several thousand troops must be dispatched to Palestine.
So why is the west not doing the needful?
Well, you can rule the US out. It has too much on its hands. That leaves the Euros. We have a theory as to why the Euro governments are not doing a thing. Its because some of the Euro troops may actually get hurt, boohoohoo-sob-sob. That would affect the reelection chances of the Euro leaders.
Or so they believe - we are not so sure. We think decisive action might actually boost the leaders at the polls. Its hard to find Europeans who don't accept the Palestine people have been victims of their own leaders as much as the Israelis. We suspect the EU public may actually support a troops and security force deployment to Palestine to disarm all non-governmental forces. But then, what we do we know, being from Iowa and all that.
Rummy and Old Europe Our fave slavering Doberman, Rummy, is much in disgrace these days, and he deserves every bit of the disgrace. At the same time, just because Rummy was - is - completely wrong on what it would take to win the peace in Iraq doesn't mean our man is wrong about everything.
One thing he was not wrong about was Old Europe. We've all heard, countless times, how Old Europe was bled white by the wars of the 20th Century and just doesn't have the will for any sort of conflict. What Old Europe needs are a few tight slaps to the face. The object being to force it out of its hysterical funk. The body makes fresh blood to replace lost blood. Agreed, a badly wounded person needs time to recuperate. So two generations have gone by since World War 2 ended. That's enough time.
Oh yes, we all know about the lack of troops. Well, OE, get off those peace-bloated, self-indulgent butts of yours and get your armies back in shape to fight.
If you cant do that, then don't complain about the US and the way it deals with the world. You have dealt yourselves back into the game, very, very cautiously indeed, in Afghanistan. All credit to you, now lets see you stay the course when the bodies start coming back. And lets see you get more troops into action. Dafur is an obvious priority, and so is Palestine.
You want respect? Earn respect.

0230 GMT January 5, 2006

· Israeli PM in Critical Condition after a brain hemorrhage. He is to undergo emergency surgery. The type of operation is used only as a last ditch affair. When asked about the PM's prognosis, his doctor says: "Let's be optimistic, some people survive".

· The Israeli Finance Minister, Mr. Sharon's designated deputy, has taken over the government.

· Meanwhile, Just Another Day in Palestine A Palestine group kidnaps a British human rights activist and her parents. She had brought them to Palestine to show them the positive side of the people. After a lot of international hoo ha they are released. The kidnappers say Britain must do more to pressure Israel, or else they will be forced to kidnap more westerners.

· Unusually, the Palestine police actually act and arrest a man belonging to Al Aqsa, just one of the many groups in Palestine who cannot be put even to collecting garbage, because the garbage would go on strike at the indignity. Al Asqa, of course, sees itself as liberators of the Palestine people.

· Al Aqsa men go on a rampage. They steal two bulldozers and head for a crossing on the Egyptian border. They close the crossing and tell people who have been waiting to cross to get lost. Egyptian Interior troops advance on the Al Aqsa lot. The troops have no orders to fire, and are pushed back by Al Aqsa gunfire. Two soldiers are killed. The Al Aqsa lot starts demolishing the border wall.

· Egypt declares a curfew on its side, forces all shops to close, and cuts off power. This must be some terribly sophisticated game we at Orbat.com are too stupid to understand. Sort of like screaming: "If you don't stop hitting me I'm going to start hitting myself".

· We breathlessly await further developments.

· Russia-Ukraine Gas Clarification We need to clarify that when Russia stopped gas supply to Ukraine on January 1, because there are no pipelines that deliver specifically to Ukraine, Russia simply subtracted what it sells its neighbor and kept pumping the rest.

· So when gas pressure dropped in Western Europe, it obviously was because Ukraine was diverting gas. There's no ifs and buts any more about that.

· Law of Unintended Consequences - Iraq Petrol Shortage Now this is an interesting story we got from the Washington Post. There is a severe petrol shortage in Iraq. Part of the reason is simple: insurgents have been hitting the main petrol refinery. But part of the reason is more complex. With the end of Saddam and lifting of sanctions, which has improved the economic situation, 1 million cars have been imported into Iraq. So much more petrol is needed, and the infrastructure cant support more production.

· The Iraqi government has substantially raised prices in an effort to curb the petrol subsidy, and we presume demand too: from five cents a gallon to 40 cents a gallon. The IMF says Iraq has to phase out the petrol subsidy as condition for writing off 80% of its $120 billion debt. In the Gulf petrol is running around 95 cents a gallon, so more raises are sure to come.

· Our first thought was: What? No editorials in the WashPost about being unreliable suppliers, Mr. Putin is wanting only five times as much money from Ukraine; the Iraq government is wanting 8 times as much.

· Our second thought was: so obviously things are a lot better that Iraqis can import so many cars. But because gas is hard to get and now nine times more expensive, we doubt many Iraqis are going around being cheerful about the improvement.

· Our third thought was: that million car figure doesn't seem right. even at a low price of $10,000 per vehicle, that's $10-billion worth of cars. You can check it out, but we don't think the Iraqis have anywhere near that amount of cash to spend; they were impoverished by sanctions, and the figure represents 25% of Iraq's 2-year export earnings. Here's some figures for any eager beaver out there:

· http://www.citizentribune.com/news/view_sections.asp?idcategory=47&idarticle=2308 quotes a US general as saying as there are 3 times as many cars in Iraq now as before the invasion.

· http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=27477 Oil exports make up 95% of exports; $18 billion 2004; $23 billion 2005; expected $28 billion 2006.

· http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=27477 says there are 1.5 million more vehicles on the road that in Saddam's time; gasoline use has surged 50%, from 4-million gallons per day to 6-million (so there were 3 million vehicles in Iraq before Gulf 2? Makes no sense). $3 billion of refined oil products imported - includes LNG for appliance, of which there has also been an import explosion. That 1.5 million, if correct, would include trucks, so - fudging figures - we could be talking of $20-billion in auto imports in two years. Makes even less sense.

Opinion: Media Reactions to the Gas Cutoff

· What has astonished us is the venom with which Russia has been attacked by the western media. Much of the media has decided Mr. Putin has overplayed his hand because now the west understands Russia is an unreliable supplier and its been a wake up up call for the west and so on and so forth.

· Actually, it seems to us that Mr. Putin has proved his reliability as a supplier: once it became clear Ukraine was diverting gas, Russia stepped up supplies to bring deliveries to Western Europe back to normal. This means in effect that Russia is prepared to lose substantial sums of money each day - it is in effect supplying Ukraine free gas - rather than disrupt supplies. Of course, anyone who knows Mr. Putin knows he will be presenting his bill to Ukraine.

· Meanwhile, not a word in the media - the bit that we see, to be sure - about Ukraine not playing fair by diverting gas meant for the west.

· As for wake-up-call. We opine the West Europeans woke up when the alarm went off, then emphatically thumped the clock to shut it up, and went back to snoozing.

· Like Western Europe is going to do without Russian gas? One media source - American, we name no names to protect the guilty - gave your editor a sniggering when it proposed the Europeans think about nuclear power and LNG terminals so that gas can be brought in from other countries. Like the Euros are actually saying to themselves: "Oh, yes, lets build a hundred N-power plants, and a dozen LNG terminals so we can show that Pooty Poot who's boss around here"?

· Dream on, western media. The heroin addict cannot dictate terms to the dealer, or don't you understand that?

Who Is To Blame for Palestine's Anarchy?

· We need to all ask ourselves a question. The Israelis have been blaming the Palestine Authority for not maintaining order. Now, we all know the PA is too weak to maintain anything. So when the US went into Afghanistan, did it put Hamid Karzai in charge and let him fend for himself? It did not. It put a NATO coalition of 30,000 troops to help him build his country. When NATO went into the Balkans, did they simply change leaders and vamoose, uttering pieties about how the new governments of Former Yugoslavia needed to assert themselves? No. NATO put 60,000 troops into the job, and more than 20,000 still remain, 10 years later.

· So why is everyone thinking the PA can do the job of housecleaning and establishing order without massive security help from the West? And since we assume western governments are composed of reasonably intelligent people, we assume the west knows several thousand troops must be dispatched to Palestine.

· So why is the west not doing the needful?

· Well, you can rule the US out. It has too much on its hands. That leaves the Euros. We have a theory as to why the Euro governments are not doing a thing. Its because some of the Euro troops may actually get hurt, boohoohoo-sob-sob. That would affect the reelection chances of the Euro leaders.

· Or so they believe - we are not so sure. We think decisive action might actually boost the leaders at the polls. Its hard to find Europeans who don't accept the Palestine people have been victims of their own leaders as much as the Israelis. We suspect the EU public may actually support a troops and security force deployment to Palestine to disarm all non-governmental forces. But then, what we do we know, being from Iowa and all that.

· Rummy and Old Europe Our fave slavering Doberman, Rummy, is much in disgrace these days, and he deserves every bit of the disgrace. At the same time, just because Rummy was - is - completely wrong on what it would take to win the peace in Iraq doesn't mean our man is wrong about everything.

· One thing he was not wrong about was Old Europe. We've all heard, countless times, how Old Europe was bled white by the wars of the 20th Century and just doesn't have the will for any sort of conflict. What Old Europe needs are a few tight slaps to the face. The object being to force it out of its hysterical funk. The body makes fresh blood to replace lost blood. Agreed, a badly wounded person needs time to recuperate. So two generations have gone by since World War 2 ended. That's enough time.

· Oh yes, we all know about the lack of troops. Well, OE, get off those peace-bloated, self-indulgent butts of yours and get your armies back in shape to fight.

· If you cant do that, then don't complain about the US and the way it deals with the world. You have dealt yourselves back into the game, very, very cautiously indeed, in Afghanistan. All credit to you, now lets see you stay the course when the bodies start coming back. And lets see you get more troops into action. Dafur is an obvious priority, and so is Palestine.

· You want respect? Earn respect.

0230 GMT January 4, 2006

· Axis of the Good That starts with Bolivia and Venezuela as the founding members, folks, and yes, its really called the Axis of the Good.

· Suggestion to Axis of the Good people: the word "Axis" has significant negative connotations, as in the World War II Axis, which is why Mr. Bush's speechwriters took the term for "Axis of Evil". Now, maybe Axis doesn't have the same connotations in Spanish, but we would suggest another term.

· Evo Morales, new President of Bolivia, says he will legalize coca production but fight the drug trade. So what is he proposing, that the coca be indigenously consumed? Is the secret plan to keep Bolivian high as kites in the Andes while Mr. Morales goes unhindered about whatever it he wants to go about?

· Is there some kind of law that says you have to talk stupid to establish your anti-US credentials?

· Israeli Defense Forces Chief says Iran's N-weapons program can be destroyed, reports Jerusalem Post. The Chief of staff did not elaborate.

· Russia, Ukraine Resume Gas Supply Negotiations as Russia sends extra gas to Western Europe to stabilize supplies. Russia says Ukraine has been diverting gas since the shut off; Ukraine say it hasn't, but doesn't explain the immediate fall off in gas reaching Western Europe till Russia started pumping more.

· Meanwhile Norway, Western Europe's biggest gas supplier at 270 million cubic meters/day, says it's infrastructure is maxed out and it cannot supply more gas.

· Also meanwhile, ITAR-TASS says Ruhrgas, the main German importer for Russian gas, confirms that Ukraine has been diverting gas.

· Group of Insurgents in Dagestan Trapped says ITAR-TASS, but adds it has no details at this time.

· US DARPA Awards First Walrus Contracts Walrus is a 500-1000 ton payload airship. DARPA has awarded two companies 1-year contracts for detailed study of concepts, after which one company will be chosen for a 3-year demonstration phase where a 30-ton payload vehicle will be constructed. Walrus is to travel anywhere in the world in 7 days and to deliver equipment, personnel, and supplies over unprepared landing areas that can include obstacles up to 5 feet high.

· A unit deployed via Walrus is to be ready to fight in six hours.

· Facts for the Anti-Nuclear Power Lobby to Consider Thousands of coal miners die each year simply in getting coal out of the ground compared to some hundreds of workers who have died of radiation overdoses from the dawn of nuclear energy. Radiation discharges from N-plants are commonly set below nature's normal background radiation, in the US 20 times below. Accidents do happen, and while we couldn't immediately get good figures on how many people die prematurely because of radiation releases, we are surely talking in the thousands since the start of the N-power era.

· Compare and contrast: WHO says 4.7 million people die each year because of automobile emissions and indoor use of solid fuel. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4086809.stm

0230 GMT January 3, 2006

· Its Getting Warmer in the Hot Seat The UN commission investigating the murder of the former Lebanese Prime Minister has asked to interview Syria's President Assad and his Finance Minister, both of whom are thought to be involved in ordering the killing.

· This is good news: previously it seemed that the inquiry, which fixed blame on Syria, was not going to go after the people at the top.

· We Need This: Palestinians Demonstrate Against Corruption One reason the Palestine people have such a miserable existence is widespread corruption in the Palestine Authority dating back to Arafat's days. For reasons unknown the west, supplier of most of the aid to Palestine, has never asked for a proper accounting of where and how the money is spent, The World Bank is ready to stomp Chad because the latter wants more control over oil revenues instead of putting all the money in a fund where the Bank can assure the funds are spent on the people. But Palestine: See No Evil etc.

· As is the case in corrupt countries, the people feel powerless to protest, and consequences for speaking out can be severe. And the demonstrators numbered only in the hundreds, whereas a hundred thousand need to turn out till reforms are made. Still, its a good thing that's happening.

· Ukraine-Russia Gas Row affects Western Europe as countries say gas deliveries from Russia using pipelines that pass through Ukraine are recording a 14-60% drop in pressure, depending on the country.

· Clearly Ukraine is siphoning off gas, something it denies but has threatened to do as a transit fee if Russia increases the price.

· Russia says it is adding 95 million cubic meters of supply to the pipelines to keep deliveries to the west normal. Hungary and Austria already report a back-to-normal situation.

· With all respect to Ukraine. the country cannot have it both ways. It cannot seek to mesh with the capitalist west, which Moscow feels is to Russia's detriment, and at the same time insist on its own terms and conditions for the supply of subsidized gas. In a market system no one gives anyone time to adjust to higher pricing - and in any case Ukraine's acceptance of higher prices leaves the level way below what Russia wants.

· Capitalist adjustment can be nasty and brutal. Still, its better for everyone in the long run than socialist subsidy. If the US has cut its energy consumption per dollar of GNP by half in 34 years, its because energy prices went up to the point energy efficiency became important.

· Meanwhile, Moldava says its gas supply from Russia has been shut down after it refused to pay the demanded price of $160 per thousand/cubic meters. Ukraine is being asked to pay $230, up from $50.

· Cote d'Ivorie Mutiny Suppressed say government sources. 3 government and 10 rebel soldiers were killed when a mutiny took place at a base near the main city Abidjan. The issue was backpay and service conditions.

0230 GMT January 2, 2006

· Iran Rejects Russian N-Fuel Option which was to be expected: no country aspiring to an independent N-fuel cycle is going to agree to have a critical portion of the cycle take part in another country.

· What surprises us that Iran rejected this option so quickly. We were assuming "discussions" about the option would have been dragged out for many months if not a year, buying more time before the west is forced to crack down. The problem, we think, is that the Iranian ultra-nationalists are so entranced by their own words of defiance that they cannot think and act coolly.

· Did Iranian President Study History? First he says there was no Holocaust. Then he says the Europeans created Israel as a way of expelling all the Jews and completing the genocide.

· So, if there was no Holocaust, where's the question of completing the genocide?

· Can the learned gentleman produce even one case where a European Jew was expelled from Europe to Israel?

· This sort of talk may appeal to some in the Iranian president's constituency. But it also makes his country a target of international ridicule for having elected as its head of government an illiterate in some basic facts of history.

· Rumors of An Impending Strike Against Iran The story that the US and NATO have begun planning for a strike against Iran's N-installations is making its rounds in the international press. The CIA chief has been visiting various regional countries like Turkey and Saudi Arabia to seek bases and keep them informed, it is said.

· An Iranian official says this is probably psychological pressure; undoubtedly there is an element of that. But no specific date is being mentioned, which leads us to believe that real contingency planning is indeed underway. In fact, for the psychological pressure to be effective, US/NATO would have to plan for a real strike, wouldn't they, along with exercises and so on?

· There will be a devastating response, the Iranian official promises. Israel is a small country with a lot to lose etc etc. Okay, that's fair, but what do the US and Western Europe have to lose? And what form is this response going to take? An offensive into Iran? Against international law, the UN is back in action, its Gulf I all over again. Terrorist attacks? Already doing your worst, dear boy. You don't have a capability to do more than you are already doing. Chemical or radiological attacks? Make Israel's day, please. They'll wipe you off the map and no one will be able to say a word.

· Ex-CIA Officer Says Service Requires 10-years To Rebuild CNN quotes a former CIA veteran to say that the mandated expansion of the Directorate of Operations from 5000 to 7000 personnel will take 10 years.

· The CIA was cut back at the end of the Cold War because the US figured it could rely more on technical means. In 1993, for example, the DO hired only 7 new operators. The time frame sounds reasonable, given the difficulty of finding qualified people - and moreover, people who will stay in the job.

· New Year Eve in France From reader Mike Thompson, an AFP report filed from London "Europeans rang in the New Year as massive firework displays filled the wintry night skies above cities with smoke, light and colour but more than 400 cars were torched in what has become a New Year's fixture in France.

· Security was tight for festivities in major cities, with 25,000 police and paramilitary gendarmes on duty in France amid fears of a repeat of the urban violence seen in towns and cities nationwide in October and November.

· Police in Paris said 425 cars were torched overnight in 267 towns and cities nationwide, compared to 333 in 132 municipalities the previous New Year, and 266 arrests were made. But police reported no serious outbreaks of unrest. [Italics are editor's.]

· Orbat.com comment Now look, folks, we're making a serious effort to understand. Different strikes/different folks, We Are A Rainbow, multiculturalism and all that. But we cannot get our mind around that last sentence. France has 1/5th the population of US. The US has more cars per capita. 400 cars in France is like about 3000 cars in the States. If Americans torched 3000 cars in a single evening/morning of celebration, we don't think Americans agencies would be reporting: No serious outbreaks of unrest.

· Okay, we know Americans have a very high tolerance for murder, so American news agencies can have headlines like "XYZ city much safer" while XYZ still has, by Europe standards, a horrifying murder rate. So maybe its the same with French and cars. What ho, only 400 cars torched, nothing serious. But nonetheless the casualness with which the French seem to take what to us looks like anarchy - we still don't get it.

0230 GMT January 1, 2006

· Strike Against Iran Not Needed Soon ITAR-TASS quotes the Israeli Chief of Staff as saying. Israeli intelligence is said to believe an Iran bomb is 10 years way and that all means short of a strike must be attempted first. International pressure has resulted in a 2-year delay in Iran's program already, says Israeli intelligence.

· So our readers will ask, what's with all the stories that a strike must be conducted immediately? Partly it was the US trying to force the EU to do more; partly it was the Israelis trying to alarm the US and EU into doing more; partly it was the Israelis trying to force the US into attacking ASAP. Partly it was a way of telling Iran to compromise or else. And there must be another 10 major interest groups involved, each with its own agenda.

· So what are we, as Jane and John Q. Public supposed to do when information is so brazenly manipulated? People were talking of an Iranian bomb in 3-months? There is nothing we, the public can do. Human nature being human nature, no one wants to embark on a hard path unless its absolutely neccessary. If governments told us the truth, we'd find more reasons to prevaricate and delay doing what has to be done.

· Moreover, intelligence estimates are not written in iridium. We've seen how even the best intel estimates are compromises between conflicting information and analysis. There is no guarantee its going to be 10 years. It could be 5 - though we think this is less likely than 10 - or it could be 15 years.

· All around, when big questions with big consequences for being wrong are involved, its a difficult situation for everyone.

· Looking At The Enemy's Capabilities, Not His Intentions So its not surprising that people seek certainty when none is to be found and come up with formulas like the saw on capabilities vs intentions. Sounds logical, sounds tough, sounds macho. And like everything else, it can lead to a very bad place for everyone - the N-competition between the USSR and US is an obvious case. Common sense said that one warhead destroying one major city was an unimaginable catastrophe. But between the two of them, the US and USSR accumulated 70,000 warheads or thereabouts, because each side was looking at capabilities. So then I need to add a 1000 warheads. He sees that and he needs to add 1500. I see that and must add 2000.

· Sometimes this led to insane scenarios. We know more about the US side than the Soviet, so we are not criticizing the US for being more insane than the Soviets. One US sub-variant of the infamous SIOP called for a 200-warhead strike against India in the event of nuclear war. What was India's crime that it needed to be nuked if the US and Soviet couldn't get along? From the US point, it was all very logical. The Soviets could use India as part of their recovery assets, so India had to be taken out. Lies, all Soviet lies, some of our American friends will say. Unfortunately not. Anyone who could be a recovery asset was targeted, friend or foe. Japan was there as much as India. By the way, we are not saying there were enough warheads to fully "fund" SIOP.

· Another weird idea was that whatever happened, the US must finish the war - which could last a year or two of N-exchanges, quite different from the "let them have it all at one go" model which most people assumed was the way it would happen. - with 500-1000 warheads. With the last Soviet warhead fired, the US would rule the world, rather, what was left of it, which wouldn't be much. Rationally insane, but from the US point of view, rationally sane.

· Russia-Ukraine Gas Crisis seemed to abate slightly as Ukraine says it is willing to pay higher prices and Russia says it is willing to supply gas for the 1st quarter of 2006 at the 2005 price, providing Ukraine agrees to pay the increased price thereon. Unfortunately, Ukraine rejected Russian terms and now a cut off is due within five hours.

· Baluchistan Insurgents blew up 45 meters of rail track and damaged a rail bridge. Repairs will take a week as equipment has to be brought in from the Punjab.

· Zambia Debt Forgiveness The west has written off $6.5 billion of Zambia's debt, leaving it with only half-a-billion dollars owed. This is part of a general write-off of debt for 19 of the poorest African nations that went into effect ten days ago. With prices strong for copper, Zambia's major export, and immediate savings of $140-million/year from the write-off Zambia has an excellent opportunity to step up investments that will raise the standard of living. Its debt-service/exports ratio will fall from 23% to 6%.