0230 GMT February 28, 2006

·         Baghdad Relatively Calm as the curfew continues. The Defense Ministry has warned militias that any unauthorized person carrying weapons will be arrested.

·         True the Iraq government has said the same thing before; right now, however, it has a better chance of enforcing the ban than earlier. A large number of army/paramilitary forces that have been performing reasonably well are now in place.  Included are about 12,000 army and the same number of special police, aside from special police commandos and the regular police. Don't expect armed militiamen to disappear overnight: this is going to be a gradual process.

·         EU Threatens Serbia Over Ratko Mladic He is the former Serb general wanted for complicity in at least two major massacres. EU says it will call off talks with Belgrade unless Mladic is handed over.

·         It is not as if the Serbian government is not trying to capture him. The problem is somewhat similar to that faced by President Musharraf of Pakistan over Taliban/Al Qaeda in his country: Mladic is protected by factions of the security and intelligence forces who believe he is a Serb hero. Ultimately, however, the issue is that Belgrade has to decide: is it going to be Europe or a war criminal.

·         Saudi Eliminates More Al Qaeda bringing its total in the last year up to 100. Five men were killed in Riyadh and a sixth captured. BBC reports Saudi as saying three of the men were followed from the scene of the abortive oil facilities attack.

·         Osama's brains are no doubt somewhat disarranged by now, or else he wouldn't have ordered AQ to attack Saudi, the country that was paying him and other terrorists to stay away, a bizarre variation on the British remittance man from the colonial era. Its just been one setback after another for him.

·         Correction: we'd reported that the terrorists had got through the main gate of the oil processing facility they were trying to attack. They were actually stopped two kilometers from the main gate.

·         Palestine To Get 120 million Euros Aid from the EU, which is trying to keep control of most of the money. But 20 million will go to pay salaries, and some of that is going to get into the wrong hands. We don't see why EU is paying anything. The Arabs for close on 60 years have been proclaiming solidarity with the Palestine people.

·         Between our readers, us, and the garden gate, they've done everything not to resettle the Palestinians, preferring to keep the wound festering so they can justify their repression at home - "We have to fight the evil Zionists". We don't see that the Gulf Arabs are exactly hurting for money; if there is a crisis in Palestine funds, they can take care of it.

·         Egyptian Magazine Alleges Fatah Plot To Assassinate Hamas Official Saying its information has come from a Palestine official who was present at a meeting with a Fatah security chief, the CIA, and the Israelis last month, the magazine says the plot aimed to kill a key Hamas figure ahead of the election to weaken the group.

·         Well, we don't know how they do these things in Palestine, but you generally don't have corporate style meetings with lots of people present when you're planning to off a political/terrorist leader. As far as we know, the presence of the CIA at any such meeting would create big time problems for the agency, unless President Bush personally gave an order that the Hamas man had to be killed. We'd be sceptical about this story.

·         Taiwan Abolishes Reunification Council angering PRC as further evidence ROC plans independence. Xinhua has 16 stories in today's issue on the matter, of which one gives the story and the other 15 talk about various people protesting Taiwan's move. We get it, Xinhua, there's no need to hammer your readers on the head with a brick to make your point.

·         Philippines Arrests 16 for Coup Attempt but observers are warning this is hardly the end of the trouble: matters are still very tense and no one is sure yet how the matter is going to end.

0230 GMT February 27, 2006

·         Samarra Mosque Equally Revered By Sunnis The first thing your editor wants to do its plant a big fat boot on the big fat behinds of the lazy, uninformed, and incredibly stupid western media. Why do we have to wait till a marginal newspaper in Pakistan, Asia Times, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HB24Ak01.html, explains to us that the Samarra Mosque is equally revered by Sunnis and Shias alike? The custodians of the mosque for many centuries have been Sunnis, and Samarra is, of course, a Sunni city. The author of the article is making the point that Sunnis could not have attacked the mosque. And interestingly, no one has come forward to claim responsibility.

·         So the general supposition has been that Zarqawi has to be responsible, as no Iraqi would do such a deed; nonetheless, to our minds the fact of the mosque guardians being Sunnis and the two imams buried there being revered by the Sunnis even if the imams were Shia, add a whole new dimension to the situation. This is a basic fact about which we should have been informed on day one.

·         From this follows another stream of thought, see below.

·         Is Iran The Real Loser In Samarra Bombing? Asia Times seems to thinks so, and while we are in no position to say if this is a correct line of reasoning, its a fascinating one nonetheless. Iran, says Asia Times, has been building linkages with anti-America Sunnis as much as with the Shias of Iraq. This is part of its strategy to retaliate against what it believes is the impending American attack, as also part of its startegy to drive the US from Iraq. So it has been tying up with, for example, Al Qaeda and the PLO.

·         If the Sunnis and Shias have at each other in Iraq, the Sunni terrorist groups are going to have to support their co-religionists, and that means Iran can kiss its investment in Sunni terrorism goodbye. These groups will have to fight Iran, not work with Iran.

·         Moreover, if Shias and Sunnis are fighting each other, no one has time to fight the US. In fact - though Asia Times doesn't say this, its self-evident, - both Sunnis and Shias are going to have to turn to the US as the only possible peacemakers. That means not just Iraqi Sunnis and Shias, but Sunnis like the Saudis, the Egyptians, the Jordanians. Far from getting the US out, Iran will be faced with a re-legitimized American presence in Iraq.

·         Also follows if the US cannot stop the civil war, the Egyptians, Syrians, Saudis, UAE, Oman, Jordan, and Pakistan are going to have to intervene themselves - on the Sunni side, so all of a sudden you have a gazzillion Sunni troops from all over the Arab world sitting in Iraq, doing what? Killing Shias. Big time bummer for Iran.

·         30 Killed In Iraq says Jang of Pakistan, likely quoting wire services, adding that calls for restraint seem to be working.

·         US Troops Hardly To Be Seen In Baghdad says Washington Post. Now, anyone following the sustained handover of security to Iraqi forces all over Iraq would have figured that out, but still, its nice the WaPo has brought this very important development to the notice of its readers. Last year was different: American troops were everywhere.

·         Now if this isn't progress, what is?

·         Philippine Marines Commander Relieved of Post, but according to a military spokesperson it was at his request, for personal reasons. We have to wait and see if the personal reasons have to do with the coup attempt: BBC says supporters of the commander rallied for him but the new commander firmly said he was going to follow the chain of command and is in control.

·         A Presidential spokesperson says 8-10 military officers and civilians - the latter financed the coup attempt - are being sought. Aside from a senior Scout Ranger commander, a senior police officer has been relieved of his duties.

·         Iran The Loser In Samarra Bombing? At least one observer writing from Pakistan believes so. Mike Thompson forwards a Belmont Club blog article which discuses

·         Are Iraq Civil Casualties Being Overstated? Statement by the US military spokesperson in Baghdad, quoted from a DOD publication: "reports coming out of the National Joint Operations Center over the past three days reflected 51 mosque attacks, with 23 having significant damage. Through use of troop observations and Unmanned Arial Vehicles, MNF-I and ISF looked at those mosques to verify the reports. The results showed only 22 mosques had been attacked, with six sustaining significant damage..."

·         Now clearly that any mosques are being damaged is not good. But one picture - the wrong one - is dire; the second is merely bad.

·         We've been hearing for some time that civilian casualty figures in Iraq are exaggerated. Partly this is deliberate: people with a case to make, such as anti-Americans and insurgents, overstate. Partly this is because of genuine confusion and uncertainty. Readers will recall that even in a nation as well organized and policed as the US, there was absolute confusion on Hurricane Katrina casualties till days and weeks later.

·         Another problem in Iraq is the blood feud. No one can prove this one way or the other, but some percentage of ordinary murders gets thrown into the terrorist/counter-terrorist pool of killings. In India, guns are rare. So murders are mainly committed with sharp-edged weapons, blunt instruments, and agricultural implements. In Iraq guns are plentiful. Why bother getting close and stabbing your victim to death when you can shoot him with an AK-47? Then only the most careful of investigations will reveal if this was a sectarian killing or one with a more personal motive. Given the state of the Iraqi police, we may guess in most cases careful investigations are not being carried out.

·         Israeli General Cancels UK Trip to attend staff college, after he was informed he risks arrest for war crimes on a complaint filed by a pro-Palestine group. The war crime? Demolishing 59 houses during operations in Gaza when he was division commander.

·         We have generally not been in favor of house demolitions as retaliation against Palestine gunmen and terrorists, though we recognize it is a complicated issue. At the same time, since when did house demolitions become a war crime? Should pro-Israeli groups now file charges against Palestine leaders in every court of the world for conducting terrorist operations? Why stop there: Iran, Saudi Arabia and several Arab countries fund Palestine, knowing that the country is a source of terror. Warrants needed, for sure. Then we can file against every country in the EU - they send money to Palestine, and to top it all off, we can ask for warrants against the US government - it also sent money to Palestine for years. Under US law, at least, the financier of an operation is punished more than the people who are merely the foot soldiers.

·         And is destroying 59 houses more serious that demolishing tens of thousands - not a war crime, but on the same basis a crime against humanity, and that's our good buddy Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe; definite warrants against Syria for atrocities committed in Lebanon;  Child of the Swan Kim for starving a quarter of his population to death; every Brazilian leader for the police-in-civilian-clothes extermination of youths in criminal gangs and on and on.

·         Heck, this is exciting...your editor thinks he should give up this thankless teacher business and become an international lawyer specializing in coming up with creative ways of defining war crimes.

0230 GMT February 26, 2006

·         60 Die In Iraq Violence says Jang of Pakistan; probably quoting a wire service. BBC and CNN are asleep because of the weekend so we cant get any news from them.

·         Brookings Institute in Washington DC keeps a tab of Iraq casualties. It says in the last two months about as many civilians, security forces, and US military have died as a year ago; i.e. using the death toll as an indicator there is no improvement in security.

·         Sadr Again Emerges As Major Problem This is our own "inside" analysis for our readers.

·         Iraq has more problems that 10 troubled countries put together, and now an old problem is remerging in force. This is Moqtada Sadr, who sought to build himself from being a relative nobody, just his father's successor by accident of his father being killed by Saddam, to a major player by taking on the Americans. Before Gulf II, even most Iraqis would not have heard of him - else he wouldn't have lived to see the fall of Saddam. He was not the first person to think fighting Americans was going to be a walkover, and unfortunately for him, he tangled with the Marines, who basically had him running like a rat to save himself. Then for a long time he was very quiet indeed.

·         Once the political process got underway, Sadr The Rat emerged to take part. So instead of playing a constructive role, now he wants to be the power behind the Presidential throne. He has of late been throwing his militia in everyone's face - except the Americans' and Iraqi forces - and even traveling abroad meeting foreign leaders and just generally being the brat that he is.

·         So along comes the Samarra bombing, and suddenly Sadr is on the move. First he bottled up the Sunnis in Sadr City. Now he is telling them he, the Great Sadr, will intercede for them with the government. In other words, he's trying to increase his influence so that both Sunnis and Shias will look to him. In the process, he's pushing to get his militia recognized as a legitimate peackeeping/policing force: before Samarra, his militia would get smacked down if they were too ostentatious about displaying their weapons, but right now, the Iraq government seems to be saying: "He needs to be taken down, but not just yet, he IS keeping the peace in parts of Baghdad."

·         Bad thinking, good people of Iraq. Sadr has shown if you give him a centimeter, he'll try and take everything - no subtlety or finesse with this boy. You may gain a few areas of peace for a while, the next thing you know, like the camel who gets his nose under your tent, he's going to be sitting right there in your bathroom deciding

·         Well, few politicians in Iraq are greeting his reemergence with cries of joy. But as before, because someone or the other needs him to do a dirty little job, he manages to live. In Iraq, of course, they have their own way of dealing with people who get too big for their boots. It usually involved ambushes, AK-47s, a lot of bodies. Sadr, to give him credit, is very, very careful about security. More on this, perhaps, another day.

·         Philippines is rounding up the usual suspects. Talk about a kubuki drama. A state of emergency exists, everyone is going around pretending things are calm and under control, and furious activity is taking place behind the scenes.

·         To keep the public diverted from the real game, Philippines is doing stuff like asking a left wing politician to present himself for questioning by the police. The charge? Well, a mere 21 years ago, he was charged with treason etc. Why? Well, he was one of those who worked to overthrow Marcos. Seeing as Marcos was a dictator, the man should have hero status. Anyway, Marcos was overthrown, he's dead and buried. Now the police want the politician to come in and discuss charges that were never pressed then?

·         What amazes us about people is not they're cynical, worldwide, about their governments. Its that they have any faith at all in their governments - we equally refer to the US government. We suspect its because you have to have faith in order to maintain your sanity. If we were logical about the way our governments work, we'd have no choice but to get off our behinds and stage revolutions - US included. It is so much easier to pretend that the next president, the next senator, the next governor is going to be better than the current one.

0230 GMT February 25, 2006

·         Learn Arabic and Chinese, Young Man The Washington Post is the last place we'd expect to learn something from, but we do have to differentiate between its reporting, which is pathetic on issues that interest us, and its Op-Ed page, which often has insightful articles. Yesterday's WaPo's Op-Ed page made an eye-opening point. So far, foreigners who buy the debt America runs up by its adverse trade balance and its refusal to run a balanced budget have put their money into bonds, public and private. But sooner or later they're going to start investing in equity, that is, the shares of American companies.

·         In which case worrying about a UAE company operating six American ports is going to be the least of our problems because fairly soon, the foreigners with money are going to buy up a lot more.

·         It seems to us wise advice to give our youngsters: Learn Arabic and Chinese, because in another generation, those are going to be your corporate masters.

·         A minor point raised by an Op-Ed concerned the Democratic. Delighted to have found an issue where they can be to the right of the Administration, they are busy waving the flag and saying national security will be compromised by the ports deal. Now, when a person who looks Mideastern or has a Mideastern name is stopped for extra checking at an airport, Democrats tend to yell "Racial Profiling!". And yet racial profiling is exactly what they are doing in the case of the port deal.

·         Iraq Curfew Extended into Saturday. The curfew, which covers the capital and three provinces, applies to vehicles, not to foot traffic. Violence fell sharply, but there are ominous signs a-plenty.

·         Our good buddy, Bad Boy Sadr, whose forefinger must by now be permanently locked in an extended, crooked position given the amount of time he spends waving it around, has moved his militia into a Sunni area of Baghdad and stopped worshippers from attending Friday prayers. Further, someone fired mortar shells at a Baghdad area mosque revered by Shias and Sunnis; there is no damage. Then there are the bodies that turning up around Baghdad: on Thursday 47 people were killed in the city, Sunnis and Shias both. Another two dozen bodies were found on Friday, no one can say if they are from Thursday, or from fresh violence.

·         Iraq Unity Frankly, whether the Shias and Sunnis  choose to live together or go their own ways is entirely their business. There is nothing the US can do, or should do, beyond the usual platitude-type words.

·         We are told the Kurds are moving out from all over Iraq and going home to the north. They are paying Christians to move in to their territory and paying Sunnis to leave. It is said 98.5% of Kurds want their own country - we have no information on how, when, where etc the poll was taken, but while one can argue about precise figures, its clear from any source the overwhelming majority wants nothing to do with Iraq. Apparently the major issue needing resolution is Kirkuk. This oil area was Kurd majority till Saddam did his ethnic cleansing, and the Kurds want it back. They're going to change the ethnic balance in their favor, like or not, after which its bye-bye Baghdad.

·         Let the US not waste more time on the unity issue. Keep good relations with the Shias, ally with the Sunnis and protect them - this may take very little effort, because the Shias are quite happy to leave Baghdad and the four Sunni majority provinces. Their capital is Najaf, not Baghdad.

·         Philippines Situation Murky Reader Mike Thompson forwards a post from The Belmont Club, a blog run by diplomats present and past. The post notes the ambiguous stand taken by the Philippine Army toward the leader of the thwarted coup. He is under the control of the Army, but not under arrest. Belmont Club says this indicates the Army has not made up its mind on if the president should step down. She is said to be one tough lady who has survived setbacks before and may well survive this crisis too.

·         Another Al Qaeda Plot Fails Two vehicles shot their way through the outer perimeter of Saudi Arabia's main oil terminal, and blew up when inner cordon guards fired on them. Everyone in the cars died.

·         Why AQ is taking credit for this thorough failure is beyond us. Had it been us, we'd have kept very quiet.

·         Unlike much of the media, we don't particularly worry about the security of the Saudi oil installations. They're protected by the National Guard, a force in which tribal loyalty and loyalty to the house of Saud is paramount. Its not a simple matter to subvert National Guard personnel or to use forged documents and uniforms to get past them. The proof is in that this AQ team had to shoot their way in to begin with.

0230 GMT February 24, 2006

·         Update 1040 GMT [CNN] The Philippine Army says it has prevented a coup by the commander of the elite Scout Rangers against the president. A state of emergency is in effect. The president is unpopular because of economic problems and because many do not accept the results of the hotly contested 2004 education that brought her to power. An effort to impeach her for misconduct during the election failed.

·         From Steve Schippert [thanks Mike Thompson] of Threats Watch http://inbrief.threatswatch.org Days before Iran is to be referred to the UN Security Council it has made a gesture of coming clean by admitting to producing UF4, an intermediate step to producing UF6 which is enriched for nuclear fuel/nuclear weapons. The US had made the allegation about UF4 some months back; Iran had denied it at the time. The admission has led the ever optimistic German Foreign Minister to appeal to the US to resume negotiations. The US says there is no one to negotiate with: Iran is not interested, its revelation was not voluntary, and there have to be consequences for continued deception.

·         Violence in Iraq and Nigeria Continues In Iraq, over 120 people, mainly Sunnis, have been killed in reprisal for the bomb attack that destroyed the mosque at Samarra. In Nigeria, after days of attacks by Muslims, Christians are retaliating wholesale; there are no good figures on deaths, but it seems that yesterday over 80 people were killed, mainly Muslims.

·         May we ask what was the crime of the Shias at Samarra that their mosque should be wrecked? And what was the crime of the Nigerian Christians that they should be targeted for cartoons published in a Danish newspaper?

·         Many Americans still have their eyes tightly screwed shut: it must be our fault that some Muslims are running amok and in order to change the situation we have to change ourselves.

·         Osama and his ilk want to reestablish the Caliphate. Well, folks, you just got a look, in Iraq and all over the world where cartoon riots have taken place, at what the Caliphate is going to look like. Lets not forget Afghanistan under the Taliban, where Hindus had to wear badges identifying them, where men were beaten with cables if their beards were trimmed, where women died because male doctors could not attend them, and where a widow who had no male relative to escort her could not walk on the street, leave alone hold a job to feed herself and her children. Better the women and her children die, the Taliban said, rather than Islam be offended.

·         Even in the 21st Century, America remains the Land Beyond the Sea. It isn't easy for extremists to get into America, or once they get in, to function. So besides September 11th, America has not suffered at the hands of the Caliphate builders. So if you want to keep those eyes shut, just like people who didn't want to get involved in World War II, please carry on. You can't run, and you can't hide. As a practical matter, the only question is: are you going to kill them far from America, or are you going to kill them in America? Kill them you'll have to do, we're sorry to say. Because if you don't, they'll kill you.

·         Israeli Commander Causes Jordan Uproar when he says Hamas is gaining strength, and pressure is building on Jordan's King. The general, commanding Central Command, was concerned the King might not survive. Jordan protested the general's comments; Israel responded by saying he spoke for himself and cautioned its officers to be more discreet.

·         We don't understand why the general has not been relieved of his post. Instead he has been merely reprimanded by the Israeli Defense Forces chief.

·         The Mideast NutCase Speaks The Iranian president blames America and Israel for the Samarra Mosque bombing, saying the two countries deny God and justice.

·         Thanks, pal, for explaining to us what's going on. If everything is an American-Israeli plot, did you stop to think your accession to power may also be one such plot?

0230 GMT February 23, 2006

[We seem to have been off by one day, a frequent occurrence with us as your editor finds it quite difficult to keep track of dates and even days of the week.]

·         President Musharraf In Trouble With US Our South Asia correspondent reports: "Pakistani analysts feel Musharraf is losing ground with the Americans. The US might go in for a regime change. Right now they're engaged with Ahsan Saleem Hayat, the Army Vice Chief. Ex-Army Chief and current ambassador to the US Karamat Jahangir is also playing their game."

·         We had earlier carried news that the president was in trouble with his generals, several of whom want him out. The recent riots, ostensibly on account of the cartoons, were fueled by the Army's Military Intelligence working with civilian intelligence personnel.

·         We must state that the US foreign/defense policy establishment usually discounts what Indian intelligence has to say because - we admit this frankly - the Indians tend to overstate their case, rely a bit too much on intuition, and push the facts further than they should. At the same time, the Indians do have the best intelligence on South Asia - no surprise there. You have to learn to sort out what the Indians are saying.

·         Reader Walter E. Wallis writes with a modest proposal that we feel is much to sensible for America to adopt. Build oil-from-coal plants and keep them on a standby basis for emergencies.

·         We did a bit of research. SASOL of South Africa produces oil from coal at $25/bbl, but because no major plant has been built in some time, is not 100% sure of what costs are going to be for the the two 50,000-bbl/day plants it is going to build in China. Incidentally, a third plant is to be built in PRC, this time with US technology.

·         The feeling is that an investment of $60-70,000 per barrel per day will be required. For 3-million-bbl/day that's $210-billion and probably $35/bbl oil. Well worth it, and the US may as well run them full-time instead of just in emergencies.

·         The first thing that will happen is that environmentalists are going to scream: 3-million-bbl/day, which would pretty much cover Mideast imports plus one more trouble spot, means adding about 700-million-tons/year of coal to the normal US production of 1.3-billion-tons/year. [This figure is based on SASOL's published figures: 40-million-tons of coal annual to produce 150,000 bbl/day of oil.]

·         Okay, so does Orbat.com particularly care how the US meets a potential deficit in imports? Obviously not! Go for the whole shmoo as far as we are concerned: $4-gallon gas, raise the mandatory mileage average, put in more windmills and solar, etc etc., and its quite likely you can cut the 3-million-bbl/day figure substantially. But please do something. Oil dependency introduces distortions into American diplomacy; moreover, oil from overseas does not cost $70/bbl! When you add in the defense/foreign aid cost to secure oil production and the sea lanes, you're topping $100/bbl for imported oil. so Americans may think they are paying $2.50 or whatever for gas, they're actually paying a lot more.

 

 

0230 GMT February 22, 2006

·         More Nigeria Violence 18 Christians were killed in predominantly Muslim Northern Nigeria. Christians began retaliating in the south, where they predominate, killing 6 Muslims and burning two mosques.

·         Readers must be careful not to impute the violence to the cartoons. Muslims and Christians have been feuding for decades in Nigeria, and the situation has become worse since Muslims have begun aggressively attempting to spread their religion. The cartoon dispute simply provides an excuse, however irrelevant, to those Muslim elements who were looking for an excuse to start violence.

·         750,000 bbl/day Oil Stolen in Nigeria Journalist Douglas Farah says on his blog that on top of official production of 2.6 million bbl/day, another 750,000 bbl/day is produced and siphoned off not just by the Niger Delta people, but by Nigerian officials. The latter, incidentally, are responsible for most of the theft.

·         Much of the oil is sold to China and DPRK at below-market prices. Farah uses $35-bbl as a base price and comes up with a diversion of $10-billion/year. While most of it is going into the pockets of officials, some considerable amount has to be going to criminal/insurgent groups in the Delta.

·         The US/EU Needs To Step In There is no evidence at this point that anti-US groups are benefiting from the illegal oil trade. But $10-billion/year is a powerful amount of money sloshing around and the potential for diversion to terrorist groups is obvious.

·         Moreover, the Nigerian people are being robbed, and still further, while the criminals who say they are fighting for the rights of the Delta people are doing no such thing, the environmental damage to the Delta by American and western oil companies that are allowed by Nigeria to operate as they will is an international scandal.

·         There's no use fighting for democracy in places like Iraq and Iran and then being complicit, admittedly by inaction, in the looting of Africa's most important country.

·         The bank accounts of all suspect officials need to be frozen, warrants issued for their presence to be required at investigators' offices, and the oil companies - no matter which country they are based on - heavily fined.

·         America is in the business of exporting its values worldwide. Those values include not just the right to vote and the right to free expression, but the right of peoples to be free of official corruption. Corruption oppresses people in different ways from lack of political voice, but it oppresses nonetheless. Time to get on the job.

·         The Iraq Papers Some 50,000 papers of the 2-million captured in Iraq have been translated/organized. A private group recently held a conference to bring attention to the contents.

·         What emerges so far is that while there is no evidence Saddam had WMD, he was obsessed with getting them - nuclear weapons - and getting them back - other types of WMDs.

·         This will not satisfy those who are angry the Bush administration used WMDs as an excuse to invade Iraq, as far as we are concerned the whole WMD issue is a blind. First, the documents make clear Saddam would have obtained them first chance he got. Second, Saddam needed to be taken down even if he had the purest of thoughts. Why?

·         Because he was the most brutal dictator in the world. That is reason enough.

·         But please keep in mind that 1,950,000 papers have NOT been analyzed. No telling what is going to emerge.

·         Methane Hydrates Fair warning: be prepared for a big headache. These are found around the world on the ocean floor, and slowly the technology is being developed to mine them. The US, Japan, and Russia are big on this potential source of energy. Now for the headache.

·         The US has 1,400 trillion cubic feet of conventionally recoverable natural gas. By 2020, US will be using 32 trillion cubic feet a year, so the reserves will be good for, say 50 years.

·         A mean estimate of the gas content of methane hydrates within the US Exclusive Economic Zone is - aspirin and water all ready at hand? - 200,000 trillion cubic feet, or enough for 7,000 years at the 2020 rate.

·         But wait - there's more. US DOE estimates global resources to be 400 million trillion cubic feet.

·         Okay, so no one is saying expect this to become the new energy resource, bye bye OPEC, hope you die dismally poor, that sort of thing. The economics are not right with current extraction technology. There are environmental concerns. But that's going  to change.

·         So remember now: next time someone says we are running out of oil, smack them across the nose and say: "We are running out of cheap oil. There's still 4 trillion barrels of conventional oil waiting to be recovered. There's unknown trillions of unconventional oil waiting to be developed. On top of that you have trillions of tons of coal - South Africa's SASOL produces oil from coal at $25/bbl. And now you have methane hydrates. The real question is: are we going to keep burning fossil fuel till the Earth's atmosphere resembles Venus', or are we going to focus on nuclear?"

·         But also keep in mind: someone is going to figure out how to sequester carbon - they can already do it when the carbon is being produced at a concentrated site like a coal power plant or gas field. But they'll come up with a way to scrub the air clean of carbon and sequester it. Its not going to happen in 2010, perhaps not in 2050. But it will happen.

·         Oh yeah? you say. Then how come we don't have the political will to replace imported oil? Well, there's the rub. Technology is one thing. Political will is another. As part of its drive for "Energy Independence" - think Austin Powers - the US has come up with an inane plan that MIGHT work by 2025, and no one even seems to be sure what the energy savings are. Enough to replace non-North American oil and gas? Ha ha. Do pigs fly?

0230 GMT February 21, 2006

·         Holocaust Denier Irving Gets 3 Years Jail in Austria for a 1989 speech in which he denied the historical event. The British academic says his views have changed since 1991, when he saw the Eichmann papers then and the sentence is absurd for expression of an opinion.

·         Ten countries including Israel have Holocaust denial laws. As nearly as we can gather from the BBC website, which carries the news, Holocaust denial is seen as a form of ant-Semitism and therefore illegal.

·         We aren't going to get into this debate except to note the Muslim world will be having a lot of fun at this verdict. So where is the freedom of speech that the West says it must defend? If you can send people to jail for denying the Holocaust, why can you not send them to jail for blasphemous cartoons of the Prophets.

·         Prophet With Bomb In His Turban Cartoon Incidentally, the Danish newspaper that ran the cartoons - which we thought quite dull - has said that the cartoon represents people who use the Prophet's name to justify bomb attacks. It does not imply that the Prophet would have supported the bomb attacks.

·         Now, we don't want to appear condescending, but isn't that assuming a bit more sophistication than most people, Muslim or not, are capable of?

·         Bi-Partisan Senate Attempt To Block UAE Ports Deal Senators from both parties saw they will block the deal that gives a UAE company the operation of six US ports. The British company P and O, which has been sold to the UAE company, will probably have to divest itself of the US ports contracts.

·         India to Joint TAP Gas Pipeline Boy, that was quick! Just the other day India was saying it was looking at joining the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan Pipeline - unstated was that this is an alternative to the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline the US is pressuring India to abandon.

·         Now comes the news India has said "yes". There will be a 640-km extension to the pipeline from Multan in Pakistan to India. An Indian minister says the project is further down the road because the ADB has already approved the funding.

·         Hugo, We Barely Knew Ye! President Chavez wants to amend the constitution to allow him to run again in 2012. He says he will let the Venezuelan people decide about the amendment.

·         Hugo, can you continue making your asinine statements for another 12 years? In your latest, where you tell the US Secretary of State: "Don't mess with me, girl", you seem to be slipping.

·         Keep us entertained or quit: that is Orbat.com's demand of you.

·         New York Times & Indian Air Conditioners Not to worry if you don't see the connection. Its obscure. The NYT is against the proposed Indo-US nuclear deal because it's against rewarding nuclear proliferators. Again, not to worry. Most Indians are against the deal too, because they don't want to diminish Indian sovereignty to keep the US happy.

·         So NYT feels that if Indians redesigned their houses with lower ceilings, the burgeoning middle class wouldn't need as much air conditioning, power demand would fall, and N-power stations wouldn't be needed.

·         We admit to feeling guilty when we beat up the NYT. Its like beating up a 130-year old lady in a wheelchair. But this opportunity we can't miss.

·         What NYT needs to do, instead of wasting time prescribing energy saving solutions for India, is to get Americans to drive less, thus reducing oil imports and improving national security. Let the Indians worry about their own problems.

·         BTW, you can add this to your list of Useless Facts. Painting in our Broad Brush Mode, US has approximately 3-kw generating electricity capacity per person. India has approximately 1/30th that.

 

0230 GMT February 20, 2006

·         Israel Embargoes $50-million/month Payment to Palestine The money mainly represents taxes collected on behalf of the Palestine state. While Hamas has said it will never negotiate with Israel, the latter says it will not talk to any government of which Hamas is a member.

·         For now Israel will not take tougher action such as banning Palestinian workers from Israel. Humanitarian aid will continue.

·         As far as Orbat.com is concerned, let the Arab states pay for Palestine now. They keep saying they are for the rights of the Palestine people, so lets see if the money goes where the mouth is.

·         18 Nigerian Churches Burned Down The Army has been deployed in NE Nigeria to quell rioting on the cartoon issue. More churches were destroyed by fire, bringing the total to 18. Of the 45 person killed, most are Christians.

·         China To Phase Out 2 Yuan Note Another puzzle from China: last week the government announced it would not print the 2 Yuan note any more as increase in prices had made the 10 Yuan note the choice for change.

·         Now, 2 Yuan is 25-cents, or about Indian Rupees 11. India phased out the Rs 1 and 2 notes and replaced them entirely with coins to save money, and of course, 1 or 2 rupees aren't what they used to be, also because of an increase in prices. But India hasn't reached the stage where Rs 5 or 10 is the choice for change.

·         So the question arises: what exactly are the Chinese getting for their money now a days? Couldn't be much if 2 yuan has become superfluous.

·         Can our readers enlighten us on the matter.

·         Golmo (Qinghai) - Lhasa Railroad Under Trial we must give PRC credit where credit is due. This 1956-km broad gauge line links Lhasa to the Chinese rail network and is quite a marvel of construction - the Tibet plateau averages 4000-meters in height. Trial trains are already running; full-length trials start July 1.

·         Such a project could never get done in India - simply because there is no economic sense behind the railroad. Its purpose is strategic, to tie a potential break-way region more firmly to China, and to permit an influx of settlers.

·         Some statistics: Highest point - 5072 meters; longest bridge - 11.7 kilometers; longest tunnel - 3.3 km. Because Tibet's surface cover is permafrost, much of the railway has been built on pilings and viaducts. The environmental damage to Tibet is enormous, and the railroad is expected to be very difficult to maintain.

·         Be that as it may, it is an ambitious project; congratulations to the PRC and the engineers who built it.

·         Hugo Takes on Mr. Chirac telling the French President to go to the Downstairs Place and calling him the "main ally" of "Hitler Danger Bush Hitler". He also wants France to return two islands off the Canadian coast to Canada. He blasted France for occupying the "entire" continent of Africa for hundreds of years. [Thanks to Mike Thompson.]

·         The reason for this tirade? Mr. Chirac made the mistake of saying that countries like Cuba and Venezuela should realize they had much to gain from democracy.

·         Er, Mr. President...Mr. President...can we break in for a moment? France did not colonize Canada. It settled Canada. The French-Canadians do not resent their ties to France. They celebrate them. Moreover, France colonized West Africa and parts of the North, not the whole continent. The Italians, British, Germans, and Belgians did their share of colonizing too. And it wasn't hundreds of years. Algeria was invaded in 1830 and colonized in 1848. French expansion into West Africa began at about the same time. OK, sorry we interrupted your tirade, please carry on

 

0230 GMT February 19, 2006

·         President Chavez Threatens To Embargo Oil Well, folks, we don't know what the US government is doing to get under President Chavez's skin, but he has suddenly escalated his one-way war of words by threatening to embargo oil to the US. Last we checked, Venezuela supplies 14% of US imports.

·         First, we find President Chavez's grasp of economics a bit wanting. Not that your editor was a standout student when he futilely studied economics in his misspent youth, but oil is fungible. If Venezuela cuts off oil to the US, it has to sell the oil to someone else. That someone else buys less oil from somewhere else, and that country will make it up by selling his oil to the US.

·         Second, if Venezuela embargoes oil, the US will embargo everything to Venezuela. Sure, nothing the US sells is unique, and President Chavez can find other suppliers. But the reason he is buying from the US in a free global market is because he gets a better deal than from someone else. So he will lose money. We are not even starting on the diplomatic, political, economic, and military pressure the US will bring on Venezuela, which will complicate life for Mr. Chavez.

·         Now, we assume he knows all this. So why is he escalating?

·         There could be two reasons. One, despite its outward appearance of torpor, the US is secretly stepping up the pressure on our favorite dictator. Two, and we think this is more likely, the very inaction of the US in the face of every outrageous Chavez statement may be driving the old boy bats. He wants, needs, demands attention. The US is ignoring him. If our reasoning is correct, our bad boy may only be doing be doing what bad boys do when you ignore them: become more bratty.

·         Rummy, We Love You Mr. Donald Rumsfeld reminded us today why he became one of our heroes. Without mincing words he flatly said that the Pentagon is being outdone in the propaganda war by Al Qaeda. AQ, he said, is on 24/7. The Pentagon, by contrast, is on a 9-5, 5-days-a-week schedule, and reacts pretty slowly even during working hours.

·         We need people like Rummy. But whether we need him any longer in the Pentagon is now the issue.

·         President Bush Finally Moves on Dafur He met with UN head Mr. Kofi Anan, and agreed that 7,000 additional troops are need to support the African Union's 7,000 troop force in Dafur. Much to our surprise, apparently Mr. Bush has agreed that US troops should be part of the new force. Though details are still to be worked out, this is the most encouraging news to come out of Dafur since the AU sent its troops.

·         Incidentally, we freely thrash the Washington Post - and well does it deserve to be thrashed. But on Dafur, we need to acknowledge again that the WaPo has consistently, and insistently, drawn attention to the plight of this forsaken region and continued demanding the US do something.

·         Indian State Minister Offers Reward to Kill Danish Cartoonists This person is Muslim, and a minor functionary in an Indian state with a large Muslim population. He has offered $11-million and his weight in gold to the person who kills the offending Danish cartoonists.

·         Needless to say, Indian Muslim organizations are busy distancing themselves from this local looney. Calls for his resignation are starting to come in. The Chief Minister of the state in question, who seems determined to prove he is a bigger ass than his minister, says the comments were made in the minister's personal capacity and as such can be ignored.

·         The problem this vigilante-by-proxy faces is that India has many laws against disturbing communal harmony. In a high profile situation like this, the government may have to charge the minister with criminal intent.

·         The second problem - and we wait with interest to see if India's tax authorities will take this up - is where did he get, or plan to get, $11-million plus 70-odd kilos of gold?

·         On a personal level, your editor is mortified that an Indian should act like an idiot and discredit the country. On a wider level, your editor welcomes this man's extremism. Every little bit helps in getting the west to wake up to what it faces.

·         Rioters Burn 11 Nigerian Churches This tells us everything we didn't want to know about the cartoon rioters. What has burning Nigerian churches have to do with a Danish newspaper? Nothing, except the rioters are making clear they see this as a war of religion - and we have been saying for some time that that's exactly what the US is engaged in. Thank you, rioters, for helping make our case.

·         Blasphemy A letter to the editor in the Washington Post makes what seems to us the most profound point anyone has made in the cartoon controversy. A religion can accuse only its apostate followers of blasphemy. It cannot accuse non-believers of blasphemy.

·         Thus, for religious-minded Christians, says the letter, meat is not to be eaten on a Friday. Are Muslims who eat meat on Friday blaspheming against Christ? Obviously not.

·         We can extend this analogy further. In India, the cow is sacred. Yet Muslims and Christians kill cows and eat them. To an orthodox Hindu, this is a religious crime beyond enduring. Yet we have never heard anyone say Muslims and Christians must be killed because they kill cows.

0230 February 18, 2006

·         Islamic State Declaration in Pakistan - Analysis Mandeep S. Bajwa writes: The announcement of the setting up of an Islamic state in Northern Waziristan while in itself not an earth-shattering event produces concern for other reasons. The Pakistan Army's reaction is going to be predictable - a mighty crackdown. Any crackdown with its attendant civilian casualties, built-in repression and negative reaction from the tribesmen will cause immense suffering and provide an impetus to further resentment and alienation.

0230 GMT February 17, 2006

·         Pakistan Riots Directed By Anti-Musharraf Elements Our South Asia correspondent, Mandeep S. Bajwa, checks in briefly to say that according to information received in India, the Pakistan cartoon riots are being generated by the civilian Intelligence Bureau and the Pakistan Army's Military Intelligence branch. The latter is separate from the notorious Inter Services Intelligence.

·         The aim is to discredit the president, General Musharraf. There is speculation - but as yet no confirmation - that corps commanders who are close to the US are giving the orders. The intent would be to weaken the president and prepare the way for his removal.

·         US Magazine Says Two Saddam Generals Confirm WMD The American Thinker says a second Saddam general has confirmed Iraq did have WMDs and that these were shifted to Syria before Gulf II. Two weeks ago the air force No. 2, a General Sada, spoke to the New York Sun about the WMDs. Now General Ali Ibrahim al-Tikriti, a Fedayeen Militia commander in Southern Iraq in the 1980s and a friend of Saddam, has talked to worldthreats.com saying the same thing.

·         Israel Readies PA Sanctions To Take Effect Sunday after the new government is sworn in Saturday. The sanctions will exempt humanitarian assistance and electricity. A wide-ranging list is under preparation, including withdrawing the right of Palestinians to work in Israel, withholding of taxes and duties paid to Israel, declaration of two border crossing as international points of entry - that eliminates the duty-free status of Palestine exports, and suspension of plans to build a harbor in Gaza. Report from the Jerusalem Post.

·         Haaretz of Israel says sanctions will be imposed gradually.

·         French Foreign Minister: Iran Has Secret N-Program reports Xinhua of China. It seem a bit odd to us that the French have suddenly gone much further than anyone else in making the accusation - which happens to be true, but still..

·         Airborne Anti-Missile Laser Downgraded Military.com says the US Air Force's Airborne Laser has been downgraded to technology demonstrator to validate by 2008. The program was supposed to have been approved by now for a 5 aircraft buy. We don't follow ABM defense closely enough - it's a very technical and time-consuming issue - to say what happened here.

·         Meanwhile, funding for a new, mobile Kinetic Energy Interceptor has been approved. The 12-meter missile is fired from a dual launcher that looks like the Russian SAM-10 series launcher and is a super-fast missile, accelerating rapidly to 12,000 mph to catch a missile in its boost phase.

·         Batteries will have 10 launchers. It is said that a single battery in Italy could protect all of Western Europe.

·         All well and good, but we would like to be reassured that the US is not - once again - in a search for the perfect system before it deploys anything. "Better is the enemy of good enough" Admiral Gorshkov used to say. "Something is better than nothing" Orbat.com says, when dealing with something as catastrophic with N-tipped missiles. For the huge Ra nd D sums America spends it's better to deploy partially capable systems and then keep upgrading - as the Russians used to do, and incidentally, as the Americans used to do in World War II.

0230 GMT February 16, 2006

·         All Elements in Pakistan Taken Aback At Lahore Riots says the Jang of Pakistan. The religious parties are denying they staged the riots - one party says it expected a mild demonstration and that was all. Jang notes no one is sure what happened. Jang speculates that a foreign hand was behind the riots. It notes, interestingly, that the rioters were young men in their 20s, clean shaven and wearing modern dress - not your typical religious fanatic.

·         40,000 Riot In Peshawar, Military Steps In Meanwhile, Jang of Pakistan says that people were randomly destroying anything in their path, including state property. For example, 19 buses belonging to a Korean company was burned. The army and paramilitary forces stepped in to end the rioting.

·         Can Two Rights Make A Wrong? Yes, If You Are The US Media First the media slammed the slow response to Katrina by government agencies saying they had to follow procedure in disbursing money. Now the media is slamming the same agencies, saying they wasted money by acting in haste.

·         This shows the hopelessly pathetic and morally corrupt state of the US media. They go for the catchy tag line of the moment to sell a story, and then reverse themselves without a second's introspection to sell another story.

·         You cannot take both positions. If your position then was that money should be handed out quickly, then your articles on the waste should say: "This was inevitable, but it was important that 90% people who are honest not suffer for the possible misdeeds of 10% who are not." If your position now is that procedure should be followed, it should have been your position earlier too.

·         Nigerian Military Starts To Attack Oil Smuggling Barges BBC says a Nigerian military helicopter attacked 8 barges used for smuggling oil in the Niger Delta. Previously barges were not attacked, presumably they were intercepted if possible.

·         A Delta groups accuses the Nigerian military of targeting civilians, which seems to be accurate except for one small problem. These civilians are looting state assets for their own ends and to finance insurgency. Whatever the rights and wrongs of Lagos policy toward the Delta, ordinary police action has not been able to stop the looting/smuggling. No one has a constitutional right to steal while also determining what level of state retaliation is appropriate.

·         Liar Liar Pants On Fire This time its the PRC, which says its internet censorship standards are no different from the rest of the world, and no one has been arrested for their online writing. An official says that its unfair for US to criticize China for removing harmful messages from servers when the US does the same thing.

·         In which universe, baby?

·         And ofcourse you aren't arresting people for writing stuff online. You're arresting them because they stuff they write about is banned, like talking about democracy, human rights, and official corruption. A distinction without a difference.

·         Come on now, PRC government. When you have nothing rational to say, don't make yourself an object of ridicule by saying irrational things.

·         The Taliban's 'Islamic state' in Pakistan Forwarded by reader CutterJohn with the comment "Can you speak to this and how it concerns the WoT and Pakistan on Orbat. It looks like everything Pak has done to blunt the tribes from allowing ALQ to operate there is failing. In a few years I fear the whole country will be at war with itself. With spillover to affect all it's neighbors." The news item is reproduced below.

·         MIRANSHAH, Pakistan, Feb. 15 (UPI) -- Taliban and al-Qaida operatives in Pakistan's northern Waziristan province recently declared the establishment of an "Islamic state" there.

·         In an announcement with ominous portents for neighboring Afghanistan, whose Gardez and Paktika provinces border northern Waziristan, the militants have acquired a cross-border base to attack U.S.-led coalition troops in Afghanistan.

·         According to the Asia Times the Taliban, "through the brutal elimination of criminal elements who previously held sway, in effect rule in the rugged territory."

·         The Friday Times added that "the growing influence of militants and resultant insecurity have forced tribesmen in the restive North and South Waziristan to migrate to adjacent districts of the North West Frontier Province."

·         The Asia Times correspondent reportedly possesses Taliban videos and added that Islamabad's influence "barely extends beyond Miranshah Bazar and Wana Bazar where the official headquarters are located."

·         One video reportedly includes an "official announcement of the establishment of an Islamic state in Waziristan and a declaration of the Taliban's rule in North Waziristan."

·         Editor's Comment We'll have to wait till our South Asia editor sees the above. Meanwhile, our inclination is not to take the news as more than a PR gesture. We believe the Pakistan Army has been reasonably successful in combating foreign elements in Waziristan, and the US is in there in full force as well.

·         This said, a caveat. Pakistan's ISI has by no means abandoned the Taliban, its creation, even if the Taliban started to go off on its own tack once Osama landed up with bags of cash. The Pakistan Army is divided on this issue and there are enough senior officers who will do what they can to see Taliban support continued even though the president and several corps commanders have decided to play the US game.

·         Now some caveats on the other side. First, the recent offensive by 200 Taliban was a complete fiasco. It was premature, and one has to wonder how much pressure there is on the Taliban to do something in the face of ever-expanding central government authority.

·         Second, declaration by the Taliban and AQ of an Islamic state is going to drive the Pakistan Army into further action - even those elements that support the Taliban. The idea is that the Taliban were supposed to be a creature of the ISI/Army, not go around declaring independent states inside Pakistan!

·         This said, reader CJ's larger point about the disintegration of Pakistan creating instability and problems for the WoT has to be addressed. We see two conflicting trends in US policy. First, clearly the US has a stake in keeping Pakistan together. This has been a priority since the early 1950s, after India refused to join the US alliance system. Second, the US is, however, prepared to accept the obvious if that happens - witness 1971 and the secession of East Pakistan. If Baluchistan and the NWFP - or parts thereof - show strength in building up to a split from Pakistan, the US is - in our estimation - more concerned to manage the split than to prevent it. After the Balkans experience the US is not inclined to waste time, money, effort, blood in keeping states together that don't want to be together.

·         As for other players: PRC is committed to a unitary Pakistan, but it has little influence in the game. Russia is out of the picture. Afghanistan has major grudges against Pakistan over the Taliban, but any secession of the Baluch or Pathan people backfires on Afghanistan because it too has a significant Baluch element; as for the Pathans, they basically own the eastern half of Afghanistan; the western half is ethnically part of Central Asia.  India wants Pakistan to split and is aiding secessionists.

·         If Pakistan does split, count on the US being in the new countries front and center.

0230 GMT February 15, 2006

 

 

0230 GMT February 14, 2006

·         US Public Conflicted About Administration Handling of N-Iran says a Gallup poll. Here are the questions and answers, sample = 1000:

Iran would use N-weapons against US          

Iran would give N-weapons to terrorists         

Would use against Israel                                 

Give to terrorists to use against Israel               

To stop Iran, use economic/diplomatic action   

Use military action                                           

If diplomacy fails, military action is OK              

If diplomacy fails, mil action is not OK              

No confidence UN can handle                          

Worried Bush will be to quick to use military     

Worried US wont do enough  to stop Iran           

59%

80%

77%

81%

69%

9%

36%

45%

51%

69%

67%  

 

 

0230 GMT February 13, 2006

·         US Starts Planning for Iran N-Attack says the UK Telegraph. We can be certain the US is updating contingency plans; nonetheless, this "leak" - read planted story - is part of the continuing US pressure on Iran.

·         Meanwhile, a British group says a US attack on 20 nuclear facilities would kill thousands, including civilians, soldiers, and N-technicians; lead Iran to withdraw from the NPT; and accelerate its development of N-weapons. An attack is not an option that should be considered under any circumstances, says the group.

·         Everyone is entitled to their opinion, and we do not question the motives of the study. Nonetheless, Iran is going to develop N-weapons anyway; an attack will certainly set it back by several years; and while casualties may well be heavy as the group suggests, that is no reason to avoid the hard options, because the consequences of an N-armed Iran will be substantially more costly.

·         More Hydrocarbons Become Available We've often said that the world is in no danger of running out of oil - it is running out of cheap oil. The easiest-to-mine 2-trillion barrels has been used up; now with high oil prices it has become profitable to go for the next 2-trillion barrels, which is 65 years consumption at 100-million barrels a day, some 25% higher than today's global consumption. That was still leave 2-trillion barrels.

·         Now we learn Russian's Stockman gas field is being opened up; it may be the largest in the world with estimated reserves of 700-billion barrels oil equivalent.

·         The problem is not the availability of hydrocarbons, it is that burning this source of fuel is adding to global warming. In this context it is of interest that Norway's Snow White gas field, which will start shipping LNG later this year, will use carbon sequestration to offset increased CO2 consequent on drilling and liquefaction for/of the LNG. With the new technology of storing CO2, coal also becomes more attractive - it is already possible to reduce emissions from coal-fired power plants to near zero, resolving the separate emissions issue.

·         Russia and Hamas: More Than Meets The Eye? Israel is furious with Russia after the latter said it will work to engage Hamas. At the same time, UK Telegraph offers a different view of Russia's action. It notes that by law the US cannot have anything to do with Hamas, yet the terror organization has been legitimately elected. Russia could serve as a conduit between Hamas and the US, and help bring the group into the international system. That could be beneficial for Israel.

·         Meanwhile, Jerusalem Post says that Israel is seeking to counter Russia's warming to Hamas by highlighting Hamas' ties with Chechan terrorists. The aim is to influence Russian public opinion, which - naturally enough given the Chechan record of killing Russian civilians - is dead set against the terrorists.

 

0230 GMT February 12, 2006

·         Pakistani Riot Town Peaceful after sectarian violence ends as security forces deploy in strength.

·         President Musharraf confirms two Al Qaeda officers, including Zawahiri's Number 2 and AQ's top bomb-maker who had a $5 million reward on his head, were killed in the US strike that also killed civilians.

·         The question being asked is that since no bodies were found, how does the President know. Of course, since the locals including officials told news media that AQ members were present at the house struck, gave the names of 4 AQ killed, and said they had been buried but the bodies were then removed by other people - who they also named, the good President should know, We are merely being "ironic" because at the time, as usual, he was insisting there was no evidence of any AQ being in the area. We've often criticized this increasingly unprofessional habit of the Pakistanis, particularly the defense spokesperson - a very likeable and intelligent person in real life - of routinely denying anything has happened and then having to backtrack.

·         Lies and Liars There are two ways of lying. We South Asians stupidly chose the way of a direct lie, which then quite justifiably lets Americans brand us as liars. The Americans are more sophisticated. They lie by omission, and unless you are familiar with the code they use while claiming to be straight talkers, you have no idea you are being lied to. The Americans call it spin, as if that makes it alright to lie.

·         Wasn't always like that. Was a time, right into the early 1970s, when an American spoke, you could assume he was telling the truth unless otherwise proved. These days in Washington, or with anyone who has a spokesperson, you assume the reverse.

·         The Niger Delta BBC runs an  non-judgmental article on the Niger Delta, home to some of Nigeria's poorest, and from where comes Nigeria's oil. It notes that the call for greater distribution of oil wealth to the people of the Delta covers the usual spectrum of loot and self-enrichment, the means of buying power and all the rest.

·         But it also notes that the people of the Delta have indeed seen little by way of return for the oil.

·         Of course, the oil does not belong to the Delta people: it belongs to the people of Nigeria, many tens of millions of whom live in equal poverty. If the Delta insurgents would call for equitable development for all of neglected Nigeria, they would get a lot more sympathy from Nigeria, the world, and perhaps even those in the Nigerian power elite capable of feeling guilt for enriching themselves.

·         Nonetheless, that doesn't change the reality that oil money has been siphoned off by corrupt officials: we've seen Nigerian-origin estimates as high as $100-billion. Probably that's an exaggeration; still, it indicates the scale of the problem. It also doesn't change the reality that as is common in 3rd world countries, the cities get the resources - the cities is where the elite lives.

·         Its taken India 60 years to reach the point where the government acknowledges it has a duty to make a major effort to better the lives of the lowest 40%, which has still to see much benefit from India's rapid economic growth. The government has finally decided it must assure a minimum income for the poor - the mechanics are interesting but need no divert us here.

·         And India has suffered no military coups; has been strictly democratic with the exception of the 1975-77 emergency; after independence it has suffered no great trauma like the Biafra War; enjoyed the services of a competent civil service; and always had large numbers of the elite sensible to the need to help the less fortunate. The country was, indeed, led to independence by two generations of selfless members of the elite.

·         If we go by India's example, there is no hope for a quick resolution of Nigeria's income maldistribution. But unless America curbs its appetite for oil, it has no choice but to get involved in this issue. Nation building in Iraq and Afghanistan is critical - you wont get any disagreement from us on that point. But nation building in Nigeria is also important.

·         Great power brings great responsibility. The US is not Japan, which has carefully limited its dealings with the world to give primacy to  non-ideological  

Editorial: Iran's Fundamentally Flawed Thinking On NPT

·          Faced with sanctions, Iran has been saying: "Back off or we'll abrogate our participation in the NPT". This attitude shows how completely confused Iranian decision-makers are.

·         Their participation in NPT and adherence to non-proliferation are not some sort of generous compensation to the west for its correct behavior toward Iran. The participation comes about because without Iran would have no protection against a west determined to ensure there is no Iranian N-bomb. It is Iran's way of saying: "Look and assure yourself we have no N-weapons program".

·         If Iran says: "You can no longer look", the west is not going to weep and wail that Iran is no longer extending a great favor to them. They will, correctly, assume Iran has decided to go nuclear and they will hit Iran with everything they have. The loser from Iran's increasingly restrictive inspections regime and a possible dropping out of the NPT will be Iran.

·         That Iran is unable to acknowledge this leads inevitably to one of two conclusions. One, Iran's leadership has gone mad. We do not think this is likely. And in any case, what do you do with a mad dog? You shoot it. Two, Iran has rationally decided it has to go nuclear, and for some not-particularly-thought-out reasons wants to put the onus on the west. Who this attitude is going to convince is beyond us. Certainly the Iranian people don't need fantastically jumbled rationalizations; they wholeheartedly back the N-option. So if Iran is being rational, what do you do? You shoot it.

·         Iran Is Rational To Want N-weapons We have said a hundred times: Iran sees N-weapons as its sole defense against the US. It will not back down, because to back down means saying: "Stomp our faces into the dirt with your boot and we wont resist." Any move to compromise will simply be a tactical maneuver to buy time.

·         Iran's stupidity is not that it wants N-weapons. That is rational. The stupidity comes because there was no need to force a confrontation with the west so much before Iran has a bomb. It should have meekly continued cooperation - no harm because its N-bomb isn't going to come from the civil program or even Nantez; it will come from a plutonium production reactor.

·         The coulda-woulda-shoulda phase of dealing with Iran is, however, past. There is nothing to do but prepare for an attack on Iran's N-facilities. we don't think there is any need to hit its missile and other facilities, which multiplies the target set by 20 or even 40 times. It can launch missiles only with chemical, biological, or conventional warheads. For a variety of reasons these are not going to be effective even if they get through. And firing even one gives the west the justification to use N-weapons against all Iranian military facilities.

·         We suspect Iran realizes with perfect clarity that barring Iran's further escalation of the confrontation, the US is not going to attack Iran directly. It will aim for sanctions and regime change. The real danger to Iran's leaders comes from within. And N-weapons are not going to change that.

·         Nonetheless, the west needs to prepare. High as oil prices are, it has to make sure that stocks on land and on the seas total 2-billion barrels as against half that at present, most in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The US can do without Iranian oil. But the rest of the world cannot. That is why an enhanced reserve is needed.

·         Sanctions and Retaliations Iran will break under sanctions within weeks not only because it imports most of its oil products, but because like any other country today it is netted into the global economy. Shifting its money to "friendly" banks like those in Russia and China will not help when the good the money buys are blockaded. It is possible desperation will lead the Iranians to a suicide option: try and block the Straits of Hormuz - not as easily done as people seem to assume, and blow up its oil wells to deprive the world of 2-3 million barrels a day for a period of months to 2 years. This needs to be prepared for, also.

·         As for the rest - threatening to unleash its armies into Iraq or setting loose suicide bombers - does anyone really care? US airpower will chew up Iran's armies faster than mountain snows melt. As for suicide bombers, what is the big deal here? Iran is already, with Syria, the biggest exporter of terrorism. Some bombers will get through and kill dozens of people at one time. The alternative of doing nothing will mean N-tipped missiles, tens of thousands will die each time a warhead makes it through.

·         Incidentally, don't underestimate Europe's power to defend itself against suicide bombers once the gloves are off. Nations fully on the alert, looking suspiciously at everyone who remotely fits the profile, locking up people at the least pretext, canceling visas wholesale, can achieve a great deal compared to when they are trying simply to go about their daily lives with a minimum of interruption.
 

0230 GMT February 11, 2006

·         Good Bye, Mr. Zarqawi The Times London has an excellent article detailing how the people of Ramadi - and of Anbar Province - turned against Zarqawi, and how the battle between the Iraqis and the foreigners is going. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,7374-2033304,00.html We don't know what Zarqawi's calculation of his interests is, but if staying alive is an objective, then he would be wise to seek a new life outside Iraq.

·         Shia-Sunni Violence in Pakistan and Afghanistan Violence between Pakistani Sunnis and Shias flared near Peshawar after a suicide bomber killed 30 Shia processionists in an attack on Ashura, the holiest Shia day. Shias went on a rampage, attacking and burning 70% of shops in Hangu, the scene of the suicide attack. Then Orakzai tribals, who are Sunnis, retaliated by launching mortar attacks on the town. That brought in the Pakistan Army, which used artillery to clear the hill tops.

·         Meanwhile, six people were killed in religious rioting in Afghanistan.

·         We know no one who will derive any satisfaction from this modern day religious violence, but simply for fairness, we do need to remind readers of the horrific violence that took place when Protestants split from the Catholic church.

·         Sweden Shuts Down Far-Right Wing Party's Website for running its own Prophet cartoons.

·         Russian Interior Forces Storm Chechnya Village killing 12 terrorists while losing 7 of their own men. Fighting continues. The Russians say the group may have been planning a school attack like the one at Belsan.

Editorial: Jill Carroll

·         From the little the press tells us, Ms. Jill Carroll of the Christian Science Monitor, presently captive of an Iraqi criminal enterprise, is a likeable person. More important, she is a daughter to a family, possible also a sister and a granddaughter.

·         On a personal level, we have every sympathy for her and for her family. But where we part company is on her statement, "give them what they want", so that she can be freed.

·         Ms. Carroll is in Iraq not as a representative or employee of the US Government. She is in the country for her own purposes. It is not the business of the USG to protect the lives of private citizens who go to Iraq in the full knowledge of the dangers that await. She should not be appealing to the USG in the first place.

·         Let us cut through all the horse poop in this case and get to the real issue. The kidnappers' demand that women prisoners must be freed or Ms. Carroll will be killed is simply a cover for their crime. If these people are so concerned about Iraqi women prisoners, under what moral justification, under what code of what religion, is it justified to kill an innocent woman? Like every kidnapping that has taken place in Iraq - and there are scores every day, of ordinary Iraqis - the issue is cash.

·          Politically it is neccessary for the government to say it is doing everything it can to get Ms. Carroll freed. But right now the USG is doing its absolute best to see that the Christian Science Monitor does not get away by paying a ransom. And the USG is absolutely right to do so.

·         The Monitor might like to believe that paying ransom is its own business, but it isn't. Every time someone pays a ransom, more kidnappers are encouraged to try their hand at the trade. If the CSM gets away with freeing Ms. Carroll on ransom, it will endanger More foreigners in Iraq. If the CSM wants to treat this as a private matter, let it not take up up another minute of the US Government's time. And the US Government will still be entitled to thwart, by any means, payment of ransom because the CSM's private business cannot take priority over US Government business. The US Government has sound reasons not to countenance the payment of ransoms. It needs to put every private citizen who travels to Iraq on clear notice they go at their own risk, and if they get into trouble, they can at the minimum expect their government will do its best to see no ransom is paid.

·         May we further ask, what makes the life of a journalist more precious than that of American soldiers? The GUS has taken a policy decision that it will put its soldiers at risk for larger purposes. Individual soldiers are dying and being wounded because there is a judgment that the state matters more than the individual. By the same token, state policy matters more than the life of one journalist, or any number of journalists, private aid workers and the like.
 

 

0230 GMT February 10, 2006

·         Orbat.com Made Fools Of: But We're In Good Company So, like everyone else we assumed that to depict images of the Prophet was blasphemy. Read the following extract from an article in the Wall Street Journal send by Mike Thompson. The full article is at http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110007934

·         But how representative of Islam are all those demonstrators? The "rage machine" was set in motion when the Muslim Brotherhood--a political, not a religious, organization--called on sympathizers in the Middle East and Europe to take the field. A fatwa was issued by Yussuf al-Qaradawi, a Brotherhood sheikh with his own program on al-Jazeera. Not to be left behind, the Brotherhood's rivals, Hizb al-Tahrir al-Islami (Islamic Liberation Party) and the Movement of the Exiles (Ghuraba), joined the fray. Believing that there might be something in it for themselves, the Syrian Baathist leaders abandoned their party's 60-year-old secular pretensions and organized attacks on the Danish and Norwegian embassies in Damascus and Beirut. ...

·         There is no Quranic injunction against images, whether of Muhammad or anyone else. When it spread into the Levant, Islam came into contact with a version of Christianity that was militantly iconoclastic. As a result some Muslim theologians, at a time when Islam still had an organic theology, issued "fatwas" against any depiction of the Godhead. That position was further buttressed by the fact that Islam acknowledges the Jewish Ten Commandments--which include a ban on depicting God--as part of its heritage. The issue has never been decided one way or another, and the claim that a ban on images is "an absolute principle of Islam" is purely political. Islam has only one absolute principle: the Oneness of God. Trying to invent other absolutes is, from the point of view of Islamic theology, nothing but sherk, i.e., the bestowal on the Many of the attributes of the One.

·         The claim that the ban on depicting Muhammad and other prophets is an absolute principle of Islam is also refuted by history. Many portraits of Muhammad have been drawn by Muslim artists, often commissioned by Muslim rulers. There is no space here to provide an exhaustive list, but these are some of the most famous ...

·         The truth is that Islam has always had a sense of humor and has never called for chopping heads as the answer to satirists. Muhammad himself pardoned a famous Meccan poet who had lampooned him for more than a decade.

·         Several Offending Cartoons Are Fake To make things worse, it now turns out that several of the cartoons are fake. They were not published by the Danish newspapers, but made up extremists.

·         If ever there is a case to start arresting people for incitement, this is it.

·         Editor's Comment We, for one, are not going to waste time blaming the extremists who have taken us for a ride on this issue. It is the responsibility of each one of us to educate ourselves in these matters.

·         US 5th Fleet Moves To Blockade Yemen Coast to block the possible escape by sea of several Al Qaeda prisoners who escaped from jail. These include the USS Cole attack mastermind.

·         We are sorry to say this, and we will completely understand if this appalls human rights groups, but this escape is a perfect example of why you do not take prisoners in a terror war. If nothing else, you provide an incentive for insurgents to take hostages.

·         Saddam Lawyer Claims US Offered Him Exile if he would curb Iraqi insurgents [Jang of Pakistan]. The US denies the report, saying that such an offer would assume Saddam had control over the insurgents, which he did/does not.

·         We see another problem. Saddam is an Iraqi citizen. No matter what agreement the US made, it could not enforce the deal. Iraq would have issued an international warrant for him. To say nothing of issuing warrants against US officials for being complicit in his escape from justice.

·         Luke L. Graysmith on China's Income Distribution If the bottom fifth of the population is making 2.8% of the total, which is 4.6% of the income of the top fifth of the population, then the top fifth of the population is making 61% of the income.

·         According to Table 2 of the following document, the lowest fifth of the
American population makes 3.6 percent of income and the top fifth makes 49.2 percent.http://www.census.gov/prod/2000pubs/p60-204.pdf. Of course, as you mentioned, a valid comparison could only be made with country wide numbers. It is worth noting that income is becoming progressively more stratified in the US, which is the point of thedocument linked to above.

·         Another important consideration is that this is a discussion of income
and not wealth. This is important because much of the income of the US top fifth comes from investment, rather than directly contributing to the productivity that earns the income.

·         Income distribution and wealth distribution are very different. I think it would be very revealing to also contrast the wealth distributions for America and China.

 

0230 GMT February 9, 2006

·         Danish Newspaper Will Not Publish Iran Holocaust  Cartoons After first saying that the newspaper will be the first to publish the cartoons expected from Iran, the Danish newspaper says it will not publish any Holocaust cartoons.

·         This makes sense, because insulting the Prophet and making fun of the Holocaust are two different things. We assume if the Iranians make fun of Christianity or the Pope the Danish newspaper will be happy to run the cartoons.

·         Meanwhile, if you want to see what Iran may have in mind, look at this masterpiece on the Arab European League site, which says it will systematically publish many daring cartoons to break European taboos: http://www.arabeuropean.org/newsdetail.php?ID=98 We are very sorry, but we don't see what daring about an anti-Jewish cartoon. The Arab press is full of them as a routine.

·         Advice to Baby Assad Sorry, old boy. Your idea of staging riots in February for cartoons that came out in October and had been forgotten is not going to save you from the UN or the US. Its typical of your stupidity that you thought you can divert attention. You are toast: we've said before, we say again: make a deal with the west and leave Syria. Otherwise you'll find yourself in a cage just like Saddam - if your own people don't get you first when you start the Big Fall.

·         Abu Hamza Gets 7 Years The British imam who was much in the news over the last few years for inciting his flock to kill non-believers has been convicted in the UK.

·         One of his more famous pronouncements is that its okay to kill a non-believer even if no reason exists.

·         In a surprise move, after his conviction police revealed that weapons and fake passports had been recovered from his mosque. The police said that the recovery was not part of the case and they did not want to reveal it because they didn't want to prejudice the case that had been brought.

·         Well, maybe this makes sense to someone smarter than ourselves, but we don't get it. We can understand not charging Hamza with the weapons/passports; after all, he is not in control of every square centimeter of his mosque. Thousands of people come and go. But how would it prejudice the case against him to make the recovery public?

·         UK Not To Cut Palestine Aid just because the people voted for Hamas, says Mr. Jack Straw, UK Foreign Secretary unless the money is used for terror.

·         Hey, bro. We're easy with that. Just as long as it isn't American taxpayer money going to a Hamas government. Give till it hurts and all that.

·         Non Sequitor From the Times of London: "Described by anthropologists as a lost tribe of Stone Age aborigines, the Sentinelese have lived in isolation for 60,000 years, despite the threat of tourism and the tsunami of 2004." Tourism has been threatening this tribe for 60,000 years? They knew the tsunami of 2004 was coming but they continued to live in isolation for 60,000 years? Does the Times London have copy editors anymore?

·         PRC Income Disparity We thought income disparity in the US was bad, but look at this story from Xinhua. A study of 5900 families in 20 cities showed the lowest 20% has only 2.8% of the total urban income, and only 4.6% of the income of the top fifth. We wonder how the top fifth compare to the people in rural areas.

0230 GMT February 8, 2006

·         Iran Paper To Run Holocaust Cartoon Contest Quote from the Associated Press "An Iranian newspaper says it is going to hold a competition for cartoons on the Holocaust to test whether the West will apply the same principles of freedom of expression to the Nazi genocide against Jews as it did to the caricatures of the Prophet Mohammed".

·         Also: "Does the West extend freedom of expression to the crimes committed by the United States and Israel, or an event such as the Holocaust? Or is its freedom only for insulting religious sanctities?" Hamshahri (the newspaper) wrote, referring to the Prophet Mohammed cartoons, in a short article on its back page.

Editorial Comment

·         Hamshahri seems determined to prove there are media idiots everywhere in the world. As far as we are concerned, if the paper - and by extension the Government of Iran, because there is no press freedom in Iran and this paper is particularly allied to the new president - wants to make an ass of itself, our response is: "Please be welcome. We expect very little from the American media, why should we be racist and expect more from you?"

·         Point 1. The Holocaust was a crime against humanity. The Holocaust is not a religion. By lampooning what was among the top atrocities of the 20th Century, the Iranian newspaper is not insulting anyone's religion.

·         Point 2. What are these crimes the US and Israel have committed that they find it neccessary to censor cartoons?

·         Point 3. There is no shortage of savage lampooning in the American press. For example, the recent Tom Toles cartoon in the Washington Post showing Mr. Rumsfeld standing by the bed of a quadruple amputee and saying: "I'm certifying you as fully capable" has hurt the feelings of many persons in the US; last we heard, there were no riots. Many people think Mr. Bush's Iraq intervention is a crime and say so, using every media possible.

·         If the Iranian newspaper wished to make its point, it would print offensive cartoons about Jesus Christ. Now, children, lets take a wild guess at what will happen. Riots? People being shot by police? Iranian flags burned? Death threats?

·         We can pretty predict that in the case of the Europe, the reaction will be - indifference.

·         In the case of America, a deeply religious country, the reaction from many will be outrage. But it will be peaceful outrage. In fact, we anticipate there will be many editorials saying: "These cartoons do not reflect the real feelings of the Iran people. The newspaper concerned is an arm of the government, and we know where the government stands on anything to do with America. This is propaganda, nothing else. Please ignore." The end.

·         But: we are getting a Klasse Klowne Awarde ready for Hamshahri. In case the newspaper is interested: the Awarde consists of a Dunce Hat with a big "D", and a sign that says: "I am an idiot". Should the awardee decide to accept in person, s/he is required to wear the cap and sign, and sit in a corner while the editor's 6th Graders jeer and throw wadded balls of paper at the awardee.

Other News

·         Baluchistan Three gas producing wells in a gas-field were shut down after being hit by rockets. A 586 MW gas fired power plant was shut for the 4th time in 30 days after a supply pipeline was blown up. 80 rockets were fired in the Dera Bugti and Sui areas, some hit a Frontier Corps fort, no casualties mentioned.

·         On the government side, a "huge" haul of arms was announced, including an RPG launcher, 40mm rocket launcher, two machineguns, 7 motorcycles, 1350 machinegun rounds, 47 RPG-7 rounds, 6 107mm rockets, and 750 .303 rounds. No one was arrested.

·         300 Indian Paramilitary Commandos to Afghanistan for protection of a Border Roads Organization task force that is constructing roads. The task force has been attacked by insurgents.

·         Truth to tell, we are quite taken aback by this news, which is confirmed by the Press Trust of India. We were under the impression the United States is firmly determined to keep neighboring countries with deep interests in Afghanistan out of the country as far as military forces go. The Indian Border Roads Organization is itself a paramilitary force. If the US is willing to have paramilitary commandos in country, why not army regulars from the Rashtriya Rifles, a counter-insurgency force, or from the Assam Rifles - officered by the Indian Army? This is a real kick in the face for Pakistan - unless Pakistani contingents are in-country and we don't know anything about it.

·         We will have to wait for our South Asia correspondent to check in to tell us what's happening.

0230 GMT February 7, 2006

·         Iran Orders IAEA To Remove Seals and cameras at its enrichment facility, and scales back visits by inspectors.

·         Baluchistan Official Accuses India of giving $9-million worth of arms to insurgents. We believe the figure quoted by the Chief Minister of the province is on the high side.

·         Moussaoui Trial Fairness Questioned Doubts that Zachariahs Moussaoui can get a fair sentencing trial in Alexandria, Virginia, not far from where an Al-Qaeda suicide team crashed a civilian aircraft into the Pentagon killing, have again arisen after he was ejected four times from the courtroom on the first day of court. Not only is the venue highly prejudicial to the accused, said to be a conspirator with the 9/11 highjackers, but court proceedings continued in his absence. Earlier, he was denied the right of access to witnesses he said would clear him. Vague "national security" grounds were cited. It is not known if this caused him to plead guilty. It has already been announced that the jury will remain anonymous even to the judge, a travesty of the jury trial principle which smacks of totalitarian regimes. The accused has refused to be represented by court appointed lawyers, but has been overruled, thus striking another blow at the heart of a democratic trial system. Citing weaknesses in the first trial, human rights and other observers have called for a retrial by an international tribunal, and full access to witnesses as might be needed.

·         Editor Chances are, you didn't see the above story in the American media. For one thing we made it up. If, however, media can say that Saddam's absence from a court room he repeatedly disrupts raises questions of fairness, then the same reasoning should apply to Moussaoui. Like Saddam, Moussaoui has said he does not accept the lawyers appointed by the court for him; Saddam says the same after his laywers boycotted the court. Alexandria is a city uniquely  part of the American military-industrial complex, and the residents were directly affected by 9-11. So by the tokens that are being applied to Saddam, how can Moussaoui get a fair jury - to say nothing of the frightening exception being made in keeping the jury anonymous. And so on.

·         So, we'd like the American media either to shut up about fairness at Saddam's trial, or raise them for Mossaoui's trial - and get laughed at.

·         The Pope As Opposed to the Prophet It is being said by Muslims that had a western paper run cartoons of the Pope with a bomb in his miter, Christians too would protest.

·         Many Christians might indeed protest. But they would not threaten to kill people in the country where the cartoons were run, nor would they burn down embassies.

·         To us, even the outrage is unacceptable. Let Muslims show us that they give Hinduism, Christianity, and Judaism the same respect they demand others give Islam, then we will concede that they have, at least, a right to their anger.

0230 GMT February 6, 2006

·         Orbat.com Condemns Terrorism Regardless Of Place Jang of Pakistan says that a bomb exploded on a bus in Baluchistan killing 13 persons.

·         We want to make clear that we condemn terrorism regardless of where it takes place. India has been the victim of terrorism in two major insurgencies, in the Punjab and in Kashmir. It has been wracked by minor insurgencies for decades. Pakistan was directly involved in the Punjab and Kashmir insurgencies, providing sanctuary, arms, money, training, and cover for infiltration and exfiltration of insurgents.

·         That does not make it right for India to back people in Pakistan who are killing civilians. Indian intelligence needs to make clear to its protégées that after 9-11, there is no permissible condition under which civilians may be attacked. US intelligence equally needs to make the same thing clear to its protégés.

·         However one may feel about the Baluch insurgents, it is criminal and immoral for them to target civilians. Let them fight the government and its security forces. Civilians can, and do, get killed during the course of attacks on military targets - the US itself has been through this recently on Pakistan's North West Frontier Province. But attacking buses and trains, where your only purpose is to kill civilians, is no longer acceptable.

·         Iraq Al-Qaeda Number 4 Arrested say Iraqi official sources. They also say they are investigating reports Zarqawi has fled Anbar for sanctuary in Iran.

·         We cannot, of course, say if these reports are correct. But we will not be surprised: blogger Bill Roggio was the first to bring, in detail, attention to the "red-on-red" phenomenon that has been developing for months in the Euphrates corridor. Zarqawi has killed so many Sunnis that even they understand he is Iraq's enemy. He is a wanted man on many sides; exiting Anbar province would seem a good idea.

·         170 Taliban Surrender in Afghanistan as part of an amnesty. There is not much new information on the 200 Taliban that attacked in Helmund Province and are now on the run. Local sources say three Taliban commanders have been killed. That has to have consequences.

·         The governor of Helmund province says the Taliban and drug smugglers are working with each other and this is a cause for instability in the province. The governor is waiting for British troops to arrive; UK has promised to work with against the smugglers.

·         Danish Imams Behind Upsurge in Violence [Thanks Mike Thompson] The UK Telegraph answers a question that has been puzzling many. The offensive cartoons appeared in October. Why are riots taking place now?

·         Apparently Danish imams have been sending packets of cartoons abroad. These include the ones published in a Danish newspaper, but include 3 much more offensive cartoons - which were not published - to make it look like these too had appeared.

·         If this is true, we advise the Danes to take swift and drastic actions against the imams responsible. Deporting them may not be the best solution. Jailing them leads to the potential for hostage taking to secure their release, but deporting them also has the potential for future trouble.

·         We trust the Europeans have seen that multiculturalism has failed in a big way, and that pandering to radical Islam has created more problems. We've been saying from the start this is a war of religion, not of a few misguided radicals on the other side.

·         It is being said in America that the biggest loser in the Battle of the Cartoons is our own President Bush. From the start, he has sought to portray 9/11 and subsequent events as the work not of Islam, but of some people completely outside the mainstream - in other words, the good old multicultural copout. The point is, things have reached a stage no one cares any more if this clash is something inherent in the nature of Islam or not. This is a war. It is the nature of war that one side wins and one side loses. Americans have largely decided they want to be the winners. Now the Europeans must decide.

·         Letter from Robbie Robberson He tells us a third person got into trouble during Mr. Bush's State of the Union address. This person - an American of Indian origin who works for the government and has security clearance - was surrounded by 10 security personnel and grilled for an hour before he was let go. Apparently he bears some resemblance to a person on the watch list.

·         The Chief of the Capitol Police had to apologize to a third person, the Congressperson who had invited the Indo-American.

·         Frankly, we don't see why he had to apologize to Ms. Sheehan or the Congressman's wife. An apology to the third person, sure, that was warranted as a routine matter.

·         Mr. Robberson adds, on a lighter note, that probably its a good thing we may see the end of American car chases. he refers to our story about the gun that shoots a blob of glue which contains a GPS tracker at a fleeing vehicle. Mr. Robberson traces the decline of Hollywood to the availability of free car chases on TV: why pay $9-10 for a seat when you can see the real thing on TV? A good point. Mr. Robberson follows with some sound investment advice.

·         "With this new GPS device, car chases will be a thing of a past. And since the public will not be able to see them for free, they will have to pay to see them. And Hollywood has the monopoly on the talent, skill and ingenuity to put this sort of thing together on film. So my advice is to not invest one's money into the GPS tracker device, but instead to buy up Hollywood studio stock and wait for them to start filming car chases. (As H.L. Mencken once said, "No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people."). Not only will you have to worry about keeping Orbat afloat, but you will be able to stroll by the former Mrs. Rikhye with a blonde on each arm, raise your eyebrows as you walk by and leave her with the impression that she abandoned ship too soon..."

·         Well, we thank Mr. Robberson for his words of cheery support. But - since at least one of the past Mrs. R's was a blonde, if your editor recalls right, can we makes the ladies on each arm redheads? Your editor has never been married to a redhead - if he recalls right.

0230 GMT February 5, 2006

Something Putrid This Way Comes II
An Orbat.com Investigation

Subsequent to our small contribution to investigative reporting, we received more information on the Capitol incident. We want to emphasize that we have not spoken to the Chief of Capitol Police and have no plans to do so: we are not in the reporting business. Our intent is simply to show how wide the gap can be between what the traditional media reports and what may actually be going on.

·         Liar, Liar Pants on Fire We now breathlessly bring you the news that Ms. Cindy Sheehan deliberately lied in her account of the National Gallery incident. This earthshaking news will be greeted with - big yawns? Several "tell us something new, will you?" Sarcastic responses such as "we have earthshaking news for you: water is wet."? Our readers can make as much fun of us as they want, but we are going to detail how she lied.

·         Ms. Sheehan was expected at the event. The same officer who arrested her was detailed to escort her to her seat, and she exchanged pleasantries with him. Her claim that it was only after she was arrested that the police figured out who she was and then the treatment of her changed is simply not true.

·         After she took off her outwear, she spread her arms to display the T-shirt message. No police officer shouted "protester!" and jumped on her. The officer in question was told by his immediate superior to remove Ms. Sheehan and to book her.

·         The officer asked her to come with him, put his arm under her arm, and took her away, then handcuffed her. Before our non-American readers start wondering is this any way to treat a non-violent woman, unfortunately, this is the way even a peaceful arrest is made in America. These are the rules, the SOP, whatever.

·         The Chief of Capitol Police was told Ms. Sheehan had been taken away. He immediately got into a funk, we presume because Ms. Sheehan has friends in Congress. He ordered the officer to detain her till 10:30 PM, when the President's speech would be finished, but not to arrest her.

·         The officer protested that the law did not allow him to merely detain her. If he was not to arrest her, he had to set her free. Ms. Sheehan being who she is, she would have barged right back and made an even bigger scene.

·         The Chief would not relent, and we assume neither would the officer. So she ended up being arrested. Later the police chief she was not to be charged - that is within his discretion - and so she was let go.

·         Ms. Sheehan has said she does not accept the Chief's apology because in 4 hours they could have figured out what to do. Well yes, they could have, but the Chief was interfering all the time. Had he not done so, she would have been taken before a magistrate after the paperwork was complete, and presumably he was have set her free on her own recognizance after setting a date for appearance. This would have taken considerably longer than 4 hours.

·         The Congressman Was Not Obstructing Justice Our assumption that he was by calling the chief on the mat and demanding explanations about his wife was an obstruction of justice is incorrect.

·         The Capitol Police are the police of the Congress. They report to the Congress. So as far as we know at this time, the Congressman had the right to demand explanations. Nonetheless, the chief is not obliged to pander to each and every Congressman. The rules about demonstrations are there for a reason, those are the orders given to the Capitol Police, one Congressman cannot get special treatment. The chief can be told, after proper debate and proper channels, that the rules have been changed - if that is the case. Till then, the chief had only one ethical recourse: "Sorry sir, these are the rules. Change the rules and let me be instructed through proper channels, and I will follow the new rules."

·         That the Congressman earned a ranking in the Kings of Sleaze standings has nothing to do with the lack of a backbone on the part of the chief.

·         Afghan Fighting Reports are somewhat confused, but apparently 200 Taliban decided to attack in southern Afghanistan and were being fought by 250 police. US has launched air strikes. One body of Taliban broke and fled, another launched another attack which was beaten back.

·         Local sources say a Taliban commander was killed as he tried to cross into Afghanistan from Pakistan.

·         About 30 Taliban have been killed as of yesterday against 8 government forces and officials, and 8 suspects detained. Fighting is still going on.

·         Have the Taliban gone mad? Why on earth are they seeking to confront the government forces head on? True that the NATO deployment is due in the area, but what's the point of raising worry in the contributing countries by sacrificing large numbers of your personnel? Taliban should be sticking to its strategy of a bomb here, a bomb there

·         Iran Imposes Economic Sanctions on countries where the cartoons were carried and where the government has not given Iran satisfaction. Contracts with those countries are to be cancelled.

·         We greet the news with a shrug. If Iran really follows through, then by imposing its own form of sanctions Iran is saving the west trouble in imposing its sanctions.

·         IAEA Refer Iran To Security Council Iran "retaliates" by saying, in effect, it is now free to do as it wants. As a first move, snap IAEA inspections will no longer be allowed. This will really help convince everyone that Teheran has no malafides, one assumes.

·         Of course, PRC has already said it is against sanctions and so has Russia, so its back to talk, talk.

·         Just Another Day in Baluchistan All details from Jang of Pakistan. Insurgents fired 40 missiles and 60 "shells" at the Sui gas works; we presume the latter were mortar rounds. The power supply was hit, 3 security personnel killed, and several others injured.

·         The house of a government official in Quetta was attacked, presumably with bombs, as well as a school.

·         A gas pipeline in a  production field was blown up, causing the loss of 2-million cubic feet/day of gas.

·         Water supply to another gas field has been twice attacked in recent days; repair work is yet to begin.

·         100 rockets were fired at government buildings in Dera Bugti, including the Frontier Corps fort; no injuries reported. The Bugti tribe is one of those in revolt.

·         Message to Baluch insurgents. Look, folks, we are not suggesting setting up and firing rockets and mortars is an easy business, certainly your editor can't do it, but you all need to improve your accuracy. 100 rockets fired and no one even injured? Come on. Doesn't speak well for Indian and American training.

·         "Freedom Go To Heck" says the placard held by a demonstrator with his face hidden in a scarf as he postures outside the French Embassy in London, in connection with the anti-cartoon protests. Of course, the sign does not use the word Heck, the last two letters are different, but we have our scruples about mentioning the Downstairs Place.

·         Reader Mike Thompson notes the irony. Here is a protestor, using the rights he has as a free person in the UK, to say in essence, down with freedom.

·         Now if your editor was in charge, he would have granted the gentleman's wish with a polite "Right you are, mate," and paraded him tied backward to a donkey while asking the public to whack him with copies of the Washington Post. Maybe that's one reason no one asks your editor to be in charge of anything.

0230 GMT February 4, 2006

Something Putrid This Way Comes
An Orbat.com Investigation

Disclosure: The officer arresting Ms. Cindy Sheehan is known to the Editor as a friend of one his children. The Editor has not, to the best of his recollection, exchanged more than pleasantries with the officer. Because this is not a defense of the officer, but an exposure of the savage disregard for the law shown by Ms. Sheehan's side and by the Congressman whose wife was also ejected, the Editor has not spoken to the officer. It would, in his opinion, be inappropriate to do so. Readers will also learn about the moronic state of Washington Post. Sadly, that will not come as any surprise to our readers.

·         The rules relating to visitors to the National Gallery prohibit demonstration of any sort. This includes the display of clothing with political messages.

·         When Ms. Sheehan took off her outwear to reveal her T-shirt with an anti-war message, an officer was ordered by his supervisor to remove her, which he did. We are not clear as to the circumstances of her arrest.

·         When the Congressman's wife was seen to be wearing a pro-war message, she too was ordered removed.

·         When the Congressman started raising all heck about the incident, the Chief of Capitol Police did his well-known limp noodle act. This gentleman was a high-ranking District of Columbia police officer, and learned early in his career that lavish smooching of important behinds is a necessity in Washington. We do not blame him, because police officers, even very senior ones, carry no weight in the District.

·         The Chief issued a statement saying his men had erred, and issued apologies.

·         In fact, his men did not err. Had they NOT taken action, they would have been guilty of willful dereliction of duty.

·         Ms. Sheehan posted her arresting officer's name on Mr. Michael Moore's website. As a consequence, the officer and his wife began receiving threatening calls, to the extent the police have had to post a guard outside the officer's residence.

·         The calls and threats constitute an obstruction of justice, which is a very serious offense.

·         While we are willing to defer to better informed readers, it seems to us that by the same token the Congressman is also guilty of obstruction of justice: he used threats to force the Capitol Police to change their stance on his wife.

·         The Washington Post then wrote an editorial, February 3, 2006, in which it called the decision to remove the two women "boneheaded", and advised the US Capitol Police to read the US Constitution. By so doing the Washington Post demonstrated something its readers have come to expect as an everyday occurrence, a total ignorance of what it speaks.

·         This leaves us with three putrid cargoes on the Anacostia and Potomac Rivers. First, we have so-called peace activists, who have no compunction about threatening an ordinary police officer who was simply doing his duty. Second, we have a Congressman, who has no compunction about threatening the chief of Capitol Police for doing his duty. Last, we have the Washington Post. Unlike the first two, the Post cannot be charged with breaking the law. It can only be accused of gross stupidity. And we have read the Constitution, and it does protect the Washington Post.

Regular Update

·         Three Cheers For Little Denmark The Danish Government says it can not, and will not, apologize for the cartoons Muslims have found offensive. The government says this is a free speech issue and nothing more.

·         Egypt Refuses US Help After Ferry Disaster An odd circumstance, and we trust the Egyptian Government will show the matter to be a misunderstanding. Cairo refused the US 5th Fleet's offer of a P-3 maritime reconnaissance aircraft after the Red Sea ferry disaster. Some 1000 persons are still missing, 100 confirmed dead, and about 350 rescued.

·         US Expels Venezuela Diplomat in retaliation for the expulsion of a US naval attaché from that country. Thank goodness someone in Washington has woken up.

·         The End of the Classic Car Chase? Can we imagine America without car chases? We may have to. Times London says Los Angeles police are testing a gun that fires a gob of glue containing a GPS tracker at a fleeing car. Instructions to units in the path of the fleeing car can be sent instead of having to chase the car. So no doubt America will be a safer place if this thing works; every year scores of innocent people are killed or injured during car chases. But will such an America be worth living in?

0230 GMT February 3, 2006

·         Iraq Army Takes Over In Mosul and the Washington Post, in an unusually fair article, says that violence is down 57% since last year. The WashPo correctly points out that many problems remain.

·         We found a hilarious item in the story. A British-Iranian woman says that the violence in Mosul doesn't deter her from living in Iraq. She says the crime in her home area in the UK is terrible.

·         National Gallery Incident: We Are Saved An Apology because the US Congressman said he didn't care about Ms. Sheehan, whose views he does not like. So apparently he was not defending free speech, but just his wife's free speech.

·         This Congressman needs to be sent back to high school to learn how things function in America. Shame on him.

·         As for Ms. Sheehan, she gets progressively more arrogant and obnoxious by the incident. She is not accepting the Capitol Police's apology for her detention and arrest because, she says, it took four hours for the police to release her, and they should have been able to figure things out earlier. For depth of self-centeredness and arrogance, this statement is going to be hard to beat.

·         On the other side of the fence, the Congressman is also generating enough hot air to propel a B-747 across the Atlantic without burning any fuel. He is not asking for the firing of the senior police official, he says, but he wants an investigation. Next time this Congressman makes a mistake, we wont ask for his firing, but we will ask for an investigation.

·         Iranian Government Logic On the nuclear issue, this is what the Iranian government position is coming down to: we aren't making a bomb, but if you force us to prove we aren't making a bomb, we will have to stop giving you the little cooperation we are giving you in showing that we aren't making a bomb.

·         In other words, trust us or else.

·         Okay, so what is Iran planning to put on the long-range missiles it is developing? Warheads filled with chicken droppings? Rocks? Videos of the new President with halos around his head?

·         There are a great many degrees of Stupid, and one of the highest is when you think your adversaries are so stupid that you can feed them any babble and they will buy it.

·         Hey, Mr. Putin, Old Buddy Old Friend, Calm Down, Will Ya? Mr. Putin has been boasting with considerable passion that Russia now has new "hypersonic" warheads that will defeat any American ABM defense. Some observers think he may be talking of MIRVs, which before both sides decided to build down strategic forces Russia was having problem developing.

·         We want Mr. Putin to calm down. Russia and America are on the same side, Mr. Putin, remember? The US ABM defense is not intended against you. Its meant for Iran and DPRK and any other rouge state that might come up.

·         In fact, haven't the Americans offered to work with you on ABM defense?

·         Airborne Tactical Laser Operational Soon Mike Thompson sends an article saying the ATL the US has had under development will be operational soon. A C-130 has been delivered for installation of dummy systems for test purposes, and the laser itself seems to be doing what it is supposed to do in ground tests.

·         This weapon is right out of the sci-fi books. An aircraft with the 100-shot laser will be able to attack targets 8-30km away depending on atmospheric conditions. It does not need line of sight: mirrors mounted on aerostats or UAVs will relay the laser shot. Each shot will be 10 cm in diameter and deliver the heat of a metal cutting blow-torch.

·         The applications in cruise-missile defense are obvious. And the ATL's big brother, designed to shoot down incoming missiles and warheads is also progressing. The big fella will be mounted in a B-747 and deliver several hundred long-range shots.

·         But what interested reader Thompson are the battlefield applications. The ATL offers pin-point accuracy in urban combat and eliminated collateral damage. The US has reached the stage it can drop a bomb to blow up just one house, leaving surrounding builds intact. Now it will have the capability to destroy an individual room in that house. It is also possible to go after just one person, say in an automobile, without killing everyone inside with, say, a Hellfire.

·         The nice thing about the little fells is there is no noise at all. The aircraft is flying kilometers away. A light beam flashes into the room and you have barbecued enemy. That's it.

·         Reader Alex Larsen Stomps On The Editor's Fragile Ego We have to admit the editor asked for it in his note yesterday on the 10th planet. True he doesn't keep up with astronomical research as much these days because of other commitments, but even then he should have known he was making a couple of mistakes. From Alex Larsen:

·         The solar system extends way past the Kuiper Belt, it goes past even the theorized Oort Cloud; at no point in UB313's orbit does it extend past even that far.  Xena is something of a standing joke between Mike Brown and his team, 313's moon has the temporary unofficial name of Gabriel. Go here for all the official news: http://www.gps.caltech.edu/~mbrown/planetlila/

0230 GMT February 2, 2006

·         Saddam Absent, Court Proceedings Continue says BBC. Five witnesses were examined. The judge seems determined to continue court proceedings with or without Saddam's cooperation.

·         The defense is boycotting the trial, apparently under the impression it can claim the trial is/was unfair. Unfortunately, there is no court in the world where you can boycott a trial. If you don't show up, its your problem, not the court's.

·         Palestine Gets Money From Saudi Arabia and Qatar consequent on cut-off off of US aid.

·         As far as we're concerned, that's fine. The Arabs are the logical people to support Palestine, why are US tax dollars being spent there in the first place is beyond us.

·         Pro-Iraq War Demonstrator Also Thrown Out of National Gallery Yesterday we reported Ms. Cindy Sheehan, Anti-War Protestor Supremo, was ejected from the National Gallery during the President's State of the Union message got demonstrating against the war. This violated the Gallery's rules.

·         Today we learn that the wife of a US Congressman who wore a T-shirt supporting US troops was also ejected, after she refused to cover up.

·         Her husband is most wroth. Her husband needs to shut up. The rules do not say that anti-government protest is banned and pro-government expressions are allowed. Any demonstration of any sort is banned.

·         Where do you think you are, bub? In Cuba or Venezuela? This is the US of A. The law applies equally to all, and be thankful.

·         CORRECTION: The Capitol Police say they made a mistake: the wearing of a T-shirt without any attempt to draw attention to it - neither woman did - is not against the rules. We presume Ms. Sheehan's ejection for the flag unfurling is still valid.

·         We leave our original comments on the US Congressperson's reaction to his wife being asked to leave because at least as far as we have seen on the web media sites, he did not defend Ms. Sheehan's right to her T-shirt. So he was asking for preferential treatment for his wife, if only by omission.

·         Perhaps the morning print editions will have more on this; if we are wrong on the Congressperson's non-stand on Ms. Sheehan, we will apologize.

·         Meanwhile, we are not amused by Ms. Sheehan's threats about consulting lawyers to make a 1st Amendment case. Quit while you're ahead, Ma'am. Just because the National Gallery is a public building doesn't mean any visitor can do as they want in the name of 1st Amendment.

·         Next thing one knows, Ms. Sheehan will be insisting on demonstrating in Mr. Bush's bathroom - he's a public official and the White House is public property.

·         US Troops In Iraq To Fall Below 90,000 by Year's End says New York Times. We are extrapolating the US total from figures given by NYT.

·         We'd been hoping for 60,000, but apparently the figure may fall well below that in 2007.

·         7 European Newspapers Publish Prophet Cartoons in support of a Danish newspaper that is in trouble with Islamic organizations and countries for the same satirical cartoons.

·         The newspapers say the Muslims have to recognize the concept of satire, which in the west is immune from any shibboleths.

·         Publisher of France Soir fires its editor over the cartoons and apologies profusely.

·         Our comment: another craven coward. Let Islam give Christianity and other religions equal rights in their own countries and then lets debate this issue. You cant say we ban or marginalize your religion but you must respect ours.

·         Important Non Terror War News German astronomers have measured the diameter of Kuiper Belt object UB313 and found it has a 3000 km diameter, bigger than Pluto's 2300 km.

·         So is the mysterious 10th Planet? Well, not as yet. Some have been agitating for Pluto to be removed from the list on the grounds its a Kuiper Belt object, not a planet - the Belt lies outside the solar system. Then, should UB313 be called a planet just because it is bigger than Pluto? Its also a Belt object. And what happens if a bunch more Belt objects are found?

·         Serious confusion going on. Meanwhile, UB313's unofficial name is Xena, after the warrior princess of US TV fame. After all, except for earth and the other planets are named after gods. TV has god status now, so why not Xena?

0230 GMT February 1, 2006

·         Iran To Be Referred to UN Security Council, But Not Just Yet In what media says is a "surprising" development, Russia and China have agreed with the US, UK, and France that Iran should be referred to the UNSC, which is considered a critical first step to sanctions.

·         We advise our readers not to consider this surprising. The way Iran has been behaving, particularly on Israel, would make any Russian or PRC veto look like these nations were putting commercial interests ahead of reining in a rogue regime. The UN and the world is a very long way from imposing sanctions, and at this point we doubt much of the world has the stomach for the inevitable oil export embargo will mount.

·         US Public Supports Iran Sanctions 70% of Americans are in favor of sanctions. But only 40% or so are in favor of war with Iran, says CNN.

·         Folks, we hate to contradict everything the media says, but given how badly the US administration has messed up on Iraq, we are surprised that that high a percentage is nonetheless prepared to back war.

·         Of course, if Iran embargos oil exports and oil goes to $100/bbl, which means Americans pay $3.30+ for their gasoline, its going to be 99% of the country screaming for war.

·         Iran Preparing To Resume Enrichment Work At Nantez Reuters quotes the IAEA as saying. This is the pilot plant and Iran is renovating the gas handling system.

·         Iran seems to be quite forthcoming with the IAEA in telling the agency about its failures, such as its failure to buy equipment in the European market. But it wont let the IAEA interview a key scientist.

·         Moreover, while Iran has said the traces of enriched uranium detected came from used equipment sold by Pakistan, and while the IAEA has confirmed this is the case for most of the samples taken, it isn't true for all the samples. Iran is not being helpful on explaining the anomalies.

·         Which Leads To The Question: Why Are We Bothering With This Discussion? These minute details are, of course, of great importance in building a consensus against Iran. But why are we at Orbat.com wasting our time? We've said repeatedly: from Iran's viewpoint, it must have nuclear weapons for its survival. The discussion should be about how to stop Iran.

·         Terrorists Hit The Terrorizers Mike Thompson sent an article the other day which told about bomb attacks in western Iran, the Sunni part which also happens to be the major oil producing region for Iran. The new president was to visit and then the bombs went off, killing some people. Iran is the victim of terrorism, screams Teheran.

·         Well, yes you are. And in your case we find it hard to be sympathetic even though civilians were killed because you are one of the biggest supporters of terrorism in the world.

·         Ms. Cindy Sheehan Again Every time we report a Cindy Sheehan story we feel a bit lowlife, to tell the truth. Attacking a woman, particularly one is is apparently in a disturbed frame of mind, doesn't seem right. On the other hand, her antics are amusing, and disturbed frame of mind or not, she deliberately seeks publicity by staging these antics. Two of her latest:

·         She is thinking of running against Senator Dianne Feinstein, Democrat-California, because the senator is not demanding an immediate pull out of US troops from Iraq. This is very peculiar, because the senator is completely against the war and has been saying so rather strongly. She may have supported it at the start - most of America did - but she no longer does. So Ms. Sheehan wants to punish the senator for not following Ms. Sheehan's agenda? Of course Ms. Sheehan doesn't have a chance, but if she wants to make a difference, why not run against someone who supports the war, not someone who opposes it?

·         Last night Ms. Sheehan was briefly arrested and then ejected from the National Gallery for unfurling an anti-war flag just before Mr. Bush's speech. She arrived as the guest of a Congressperson, and visitors are supposed to quietly watch proceedings, not create a disturbance of any sort. Ms. Sheehan knows the rules as well as anyone else. That didn't stop her from imposing on the goodwill of the Congressperson who invited her. It would have been such a simple affair to wait till after the speech, go outside like everyone else, and deliver a statement. With the entire media circus around, she would have gotten excellent publicity.