0230 GMT March 14, 2006

0230 GMT August 31, 2006

Our Favorite Dictator President Chavez is disappointing us these days. With Lebanon 2006 done with, we've been checking up on him for our entertainment fix. Sad to say, he has been behaving himself. How boring.
Lately he has been in Syria to get Damascus to join his anti-US crusade. We wonder if he understands that people like the Syrians and Iranians are very tough cookies behind the elaborate, almost oriental facades of hospitality and lavish mutual praises. We are told the two countries consider him amusing, and anyone is welcome to join them in a bit of US-bashing. But they take neither him nor his ambitions with any seriousness.
Can Anyone Take Xinhua Seriously? It is still carrying the same headlines from last week: for Xinhua to keep giving stale news is fast becoming a ritual. The website is a joke and affront to serious news junkies. Its August 30 edition was still up at 0130 GMT and its lead stories include datelines of August 23 and at least 4 stories from August 24 plus fossils from the 25th.
Israel Refuses To Lift Lebanon Blockade saying that it will not do so till Hezbollah complies with 1701 and unconditionally releases the two Israeli soldiers. I
Hezbollah Says No Way will it release the captives with a prisoner exchange.
So again we have Israel punishing Lebanon. Hezbollah is not a signatory to 1701. What is it Israel wants: the Lebanese Army to get back the men? As if it can when even Israel cannot.
Our prediction is like it or not Israel is going to have to lift the blockade, and the more time Israel takes, the greater fiasco there will be for it and for the US.
Cluster Bombs: UN Cites Israel Let us first state that personally we have no position on cluster bombs. We completely understand why people work to get them banned, like they want napalm banned. At the same time, in war people die in a large number of unpleasant ways and it seems besides the point to say its okay to kill them in these 10 ways but not in those ten ways. We are aware that cluster bombs present a grave threat to civilians after a war. Well, so do a number of other circumstances. So please keep our agnostic position before reading the rest of this.
The UN says 90% of Israeli cluster bombs were used in the last 72 hours of the war, when it was obvious to everyone the war was ending. And of course, they have been used mainly against civilians because Hezbollah was operating from within civilians and also because the Israelis felt they had to unleash one last orgy of destruction to prove their manhood was not diminished.
The Israelis are going to have to face the consequences, like it or not. when the UN head of humanitarian relief accuses a country of immoral action, the world is not simply going to forget what happened. And this is going to hit the US too. The world has changed a lot in 20 years and the US is not going to get away by whacking Israel with a limp noodle as it did the last time the cluster bomb thing came up.

0230 GMT August 30, 2006

Lebanon: In Our Humble Opinion A massive wave of pessimism has hit western media/analysts as the real dimensions of the new mission Europe has undertaken sink in.
We believe the pessimism is unwarranted. We realize this is a reversal of our earlier position. But one's analyses have to be based on facts, and facts keep changing.
There are five parties to the ceasefire: Israel, Hezbollah, Lebanon, Iran, Syria.
Lebanon is irrelevant to any future outcome. Much puffery is being expended on polls that show half of Lebanon wants Hezbollah disarmed. Our reaction to these polls is: (a) Aaaaaand? and (b) we are surprised half of Lebanon wants Hezb disarmed. We'd have thought it would be 70%.
Look, folks, Shias constitute 40% of Lebanon. They cannot possibly be working as a bloc: there have to be Shia who are opposed to Hezb. 60% of Lebanon is Christian, other Muslim, Druze, etc. None of those people has any reason to like Hezb.
The simple reality is no one gives a farthing about what the government of Lebanon thinks. Hezb is armed, trained, and of its people. If the Lebanese army moves against Hezb, the first thing happens is the Lebanese Army splits; second thing that happens is civil war.
There is no one in Lebanon of any denomination who wants to risk civil war again. So lets please stop talking of Hezb being disarmed by Lebanon.
Hezbollah has made its point by holding its own against Israel. Its very sad to see the incredible self-deception so many Israelis are engaged in about having defeated Hezbollah. Hezb is a guerilla movement; mere survival is enough. It held its own against the best troops in the Israeli Army, it may have inflicted more KIA on Israel than suffered by its cadres even if the total number of Hezb cadres plus auxiliaries was more than Israel's KIA. It stopped Israel's famed armor cold - at least 46 Merkevas got knocked out, by the way. The Israeli AF could not stop Hezb from launching rockets into Israel. The rocket barrage shut down northern Israel. Like most others, we were counting the human casualties and concluding these were insignificant. This is not the way the Israelis were looking at it. Life stopped, an alarmingly large number of people were left to fend on their own, and the IDF could not stop the rockets. Lets stop talking of an Israeli victory.
Hezb is sitting very pretty. It is not reacting to Israeli provocations. It is helping people rebuild. It is apologizing to the people of Lebanon. It is avoiding celebrations and armed displays. what does this tell us? Hezb is not just confident, it has no reason at all to break the ceasefire.
Syria and Iran Both have emerged much stronger vis-a-vis the US and Israel. Neither has anything to gain by jeopardizing these political/diplomatic/military gains by reckless adventures. Both want to tell US/Israel: don't think you can run over the Mideast and us. We are forces to be dealt with. Like it or not, you have to negotiate with us. Any behavior that can reduce the chances US/Israel will be compelled to negotiate will be avoided by the two.
That leaves Israel There is real fear that Israel will find the status quo unacceptable and resume hostilities. Here we are going to really stick our necks out. We think its possible Israel has learned its lesson about force and its limits. If we are wrong, and Israel goes again for war and again starts hammering Lebanon, well, all we can say there is going to big trouble with Syria, Iran, and Iraq. Things will not turn out well. And Europe will be very, very unhappy with Israel.
The real issue is Iran has outflanked the US. US attacks Iran, Iran unleashes Hezbollah - a much stronger version, by the way, against Israel.
Iraq Fighting Now here is an interesting situation. Iraq army moves to disarm Al-Sadr militia in Diwaniya, south of Baghdad. Al-Sadr tells militia "lay down your arms". Militia says rude things to Al-Sadr and whups Iraqi Army despite support to the latter by Polish troops and US air power. People in the town now go around dazed, saying one moment everything was peaceful and now the militia has taken over.
Oh those Iraqis! They do the darnest things!
Hey, Washington! Get the hint? Time to leave, boys. Too many crazies. How many wars is the US military to fight? First it was the war against Saddam and his army. That mutated into a Sunni insurgency. Now the Sunnis are backing the US and Americans are fighting Shias.
Rummy Rumster keeps making Delphic pronouncements the import of which all seem to be that critics of the war are venal traitors to America. Someone please ask Rummy: what does what's happening in Iraq now have to do with America? Huh? Huh? Tell us, Rummy. You gonna deal with the splits in the Shia militias next, Rummy? Al-Sadr's militia seems to have split, and then there are people like the Shia Badr militia who have been dying to have a go at Al-Sadr and have been fighting his men in the south. So the war could mutate again into Shia-vs-Shia. One thing will not change: Rummy will be bravely waving the American flag from the safety of Washington, DC.
We are firm believers in the theory that old men send young men to die in war so they, the old men, can have the young women. The old men can no longer fight the young men for the women, so they resort to these devious means. The biological imperative and all that. By the way, we always get confused when we expound this theory because we are not sure if we came up with it ourselves. But the upshot is that either society provides the old men in the power elite free young women to keep them -the oldies - quiet, or it puts the oldies on medication that- you know what we mean, its so embarrassing to say this outright - keeps them quiet.

0230 GMT August 29, 2006

Israel And The Law Of Unintended Consequences We were second to no one in cheering Israel in its war against Hezbollah. Where we very quickly turned against Israel was when we saw, within days, that Israel was more interesting in applying the boot to Lebanon's neck than in fighting Hezbollah. Added to that was Israel's ineptitude, continued arrogance, and - dare we say it - cowardice in fighting a really tough enemy, the first such Israel has ever faced.
So when Israel came up with the idea of getting European troops to guarantee its security against Hezbollah, readers will recall we hit the roof. It takes a peculiar kind of cruelty to say, in effect, "we cant fight Hezbollah, but we will go on hammering the Lebanese people till you send in your troops to fight Hezbollah". Moreover, we couldn't understand why the Europeans were being so stupid to take this mission.
Well, everything has now been explained, and to give you the punchline before the story, Israel has set itself up for a shafting greater than it could imagine in its worst nightmares.
The Key To The Situation lies in a statement made by the Italian foreign minister - thanks to reader marcopetroni for the item. "It might be possible to deploy an international force in Gaza as well. It depends on the success of the Lebanon mission".
Well folks, there you have it. Don't be deceived by the "might be possible". This is a diplomat speaking. That he is articulating the thought before the first Italian soldier arrives in Lebanon is tantamount, in diplospeak, to saying "we are going to do it". A seasoned diplomat never speculates, and this is not a speculation, it is an announcement of intended action. Since the Palestinians will welcome any relief from Israel's rule, the statement is aimed at Israel alone.
Incidentally, while we have been critics of Debka.com for its pretentious "Our sources reveal" style of reporting, we have to compliment them for catching the real meaning of the European deployment before any other media source we have seen.
You can see now that if the real target is Palestine, a conflict that has gone on for 6 decades, and which the Muslim leadership uses as an excuse for every prevision it visits on its people and on the west, then of course the risks the Europeans are taking are well worth the game.
Seen in this light, the European initiative is very bold indeed, and all the carping we and others have been doing about Europe's diplomatic/military weakness is beside the point. Needless to say, the Europeans are also acting to head off confrontation with a future N-armed Iran. The move represents a true paradigm shift in world affairs.
As such, while we fear Europe does not have the will and capability to pull this off, we hope Europe can.
Where Does This Leave Hezbollah? The way we see it, Hezbollah is moving very rapidly to reposition itself from being seen as the problem to being seen as a vital part of the solution. Look at it from Hezbollah's viewpoint: the Europeans are coming to beat Israel into line, something Hezbollah obviously cannot do by itself. Its one thing to have stopped Israel in South Lebanon, it is a very different matter to actually defeat Israel in Israel. Hezbollah can never do that; we can be certain it knows it cannot. But if the Europeans are going to do it for Hezbollah and other Arabs, wouldn't you, if you were Hezbollah, cooperate with the Europeans to the fullest extent?
Now does Hezbollah's voluntary demolition of its outposts in the Shaba Farms area and removal of weapons make sense? You bet it does.
So, Back To The Law Of Unintended Consequences Israel hoped Europe would take Hezbollah off Israel's back. Europe will, with Hezbollah's full cooperation. Because the European monkey is now going to be on Israel's back.
Finally something interesting is happening in some part of the world. Readers, keep two things in mind. There is a very, very long way to go. These are very early days. Second, if you are American, think of what we said the other day. Europeans think Israel is the greatest danger in the Middle East. If you look at this as an American, nothing Europe is doing makes sense. Looked at it from the European perspective as to who is the problem, then what Europe is doing makes perfect sense.

0230 GMT August 28, 2006

Rioting In Quetta after the killing of the leading Baluch insurgent leader. At this stage we put little significance on the rioting, which is widespread, with nearly 500 arrests. We still think the government has scored a major victory, and speculation about the killing of the leader leading to a hardening of Baluchi opposition to the government is just the usual trite words media uses to "show" it is engaged in "deep thinking". In other words, a 12-year-old could come up with that analysis. In our opinion, which is of course subject to change as developments occur, Pakistan will be able to easily deal with the aftermath of the leader's demise.
Debka.com Leads Off With Israeli Allegations About UNIFIL-2 Readers will recall we have been saying the minute UNIFIL-2 - as it is now called - gets into the act Israelis are going to start making allegations about its partisanship and its helping Hezbollah and so on. So Debka.com's allegations that this is already happen come as no surprise. What does come as a surprise is the speed with which Israelis - any Israelis - have reacted. UNIFIL-2 is just being formed, it will be months before it is fully operational, and it is already under attack.
If you are interested, read the original article "European Lebanon Force Is Cast as Shield for Iranian-Hizballah Military Buildup"
http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1205.[Thanks to reader marcopetroni for forwarding.] The tone of the article will strike you as hysterical. Debka makes some dubious claims, such as Scud missiles arriving in Lebanon. Even if this is so - and we'd like to see some other sources before accepting it - large and heavy missiles/launchers pose little threat to Israel. The IsAF is quite capable of going after these.
Nonetheless, to dismiss all of Debka's wild hyperbole would be wrong. Debka has a definite point when it fears Europe participation in UNIFIL-2 will be used as a back-door for imposition of a forced solution on the Palestine question. Israel may not fully appreciate it, but the world as a whole is completely sick and tired of Israeli repression in Palestine - and we say this without intending in any way to take a position on if Israel can do things in Palestine differently. The Europeans regard Israel as the greatest threat to Mideast peace - with good reason if you are looking at things from a European perspective. They are convinced the US is completely sold out to Tel Aviv and will not do anything Tel Aviv: and who can argue the Europeans are wrong. The Euros feel its time for them to take a hand.
Well, good luck to them if they can pull it off. Israel is not going to lie down and let the Europeans walk all over it, even if ultimately it is for Israel's good.
Hezbollah's Nasrullah Gives An Almost Apology - that is our interpretation of the CNN story where he says he did not anticipate war because of the kidnapping of the Israeli soldiers.
Interestingly, he says negotiations are underway through third parties.
On this point we agree with Debka: Nasrullah can afford to be contrite, sweet, and reasonable now that he has won the war and is being rearmed. He is looking to play a larger role in Lebanon - how we are not sure at this point. He is either seeking to split off southern Lebanon or else he plans to become the dominating influence in the country. He is well on track toward achieving either objective.

0230 GMT August 27, 2006

Pakistan Forces Kill Key Baluch Insurgent Leader The leader of the Bugti tribe, a majority of which is in rebellion against the Federal Government of Pakistan, has been killed during a 3-day engagement which is still continuing at last report.
Following a crackdown by Pakistan forces, the leader along with a core of followers fled into the mountains several months ago. Pakistan indicates he was tracked to a cave via satellite phone. The cave entrance was bombed, presumably by the Pakistan Air Force. 27 security personnel including officers of the elite Special Service Group were killed. Between 35 and 60 insurgents were killed, depending on which account one goes by. The toll included two grandsons of the insurgent leader, though from other reports it seems one may have been captured.
Major Setback For Baluch Nationalists and for India, which has been aiding Baluch separatists, though it is not clear what role if any India played with the Bugtis: Baluch tribal politics is highly fragmented. Nonetheless, insofar as the Bugti chieftain was the senior most Baluch insurgent leader, his death is not good news for India.
Iran Commissions Heavy Water Plant Despite all the Western focus on Iran's uranium enrichment program, the plutonium route is far easier. Iran reportedly intends to begin construction of a plutonium production reactor at Arak, where the heavy water plant is located. A heavy-water moderated plutonium production reactor is not as easy to put together as some proliferation experts claim, but it is a lot easier than enriching uranium.
Our estimate for Iran's 1st N-bomb: 8-10 years. And we repeat: Pakistan does not have anything resembling a usable N-weapon. It is likely to have 1-2 warheads in 4+ years. Yes, yes, we know how Iran is about to go nuclear in 6 months and Pakistan has 20-50 warheads and so on and so forth. Once in a very great while we get asked "how do you know?" Our response to that is highly sophisticated: "and how do you know?" That usually ends the argument because the other side gets outraged that we are not deferring to its intelligence sources. Well, we have our own intelligence sources, and if the other side's intel really believes what it is saying, our advice is: fire your intel people. They're no good.
No danger anyone will get fired. There is a universe of difference between the information that agents - human or otherwise - produce and what gets to the media. The product gets distorted at every step of the chain; longer the chain, more the distortion.
Chad Orders Two Oil Majors Out in an effort to gain increasing share of revenue from its oil. Chad says it has been getting 12.5% revenue, while the various oil companies have already earned $5-billion on a $3-billion investment. The two control 60% of output. Exxon Mobil is not affected by the order.
Chad is at odds with the World Bank: the latter financed the Chad-Gabon pipeline under some of the toughest conditions ever imposed on a borrower, so that as little money as possible might be corruptly diverted. Chad has been demanding greater control of the revenues it gets to provide for national defense, as it faces a rebellion.
The rumor is the expulsion is intended to benefit China, with whom Chad established diplomatic relations a few weeks ago.
This is one of those backwater crises that could have a much larger impact than at first assessed. China clearly needs energy, and if the rumors are correct then it is ready to play for high stakes.
Sudan Building Up Forces In Dafur and government is refusing to accept 17,000 UN troops in place of the lightly armed 7000 African Union troops that are having a very difficult time protecting Dafur refugees.
US has sent an envoy to Khartoum, but we are unclear what pressure the US can bring. Washington's stock is at a new ebb after Lebanon 2006; you are going to see a lot of tyrants big and small defy the US if only to assert themselves.
Amara Mutiny We forgot to add: the mutiny by elements of Iraq 10th Division at Amara had nothing to do with the British pulling out of their base. It began because of rumors that the brigade in question was to be ordered to Baghdad. To the troops, this was a dastardly plot by the Americans to kill them.
At which point in reasonable reader says: "Whoa! Whoa! say what again? That does not compute! Its the Iraqi Army, the brigade is needed in Baghdad, so shouldn't it be quietly preparing to move to Baghdad?"
Well, you see, there is a problem. The brigade - is it the 4th? - is heavily recruited from the Sadr and other Shia militias. They have a cozy life in the south, where the division is based. Nary an American to be seen, just the Brits, doing their best to pass off as eager-to-please, good natured, non-threatening village idiots. But if we go to Baghdad, those Americans are going to make us work. The horror of it all - but readers, do remember these guys are volunteers, not draftees. Moreover, the Americans, who are renown for the indifference as to what the locals think of them, are inscrutable. You just don't what they're up to. Next thing you know, officers will get replaced, NCOs will get fired, graft will be stomped on, training will have to be held, orders will have to be followed, and all the time the Americans will be screaming, shouting, shoving at you. Its all just too much, mom, that's not what I joined the Army for! I joined for free money, the easy life, the opportunity to extort, and the chance to murder Sunnis!
Luckily, a lot of the Iraq is not like that. They're professionals who want to do the right thing. But honestly, you will be amazed at how many Iraqis simply desert because they think the Americans make army life too hard.
So what was it like in Saddam's days? Well, we're not too sure. Armies are institutions where as few as 3% of really determined people - key officers and NCOs - can really, really, really force their will on the other 97%. In Saddam's days deserters would be shot or if they were lucky, just mutilated. Better to obey orders and have the chance of surviving than desert and know you're dead.

0230 GMT August 26, 2006

British Evacuate Amarah, Iraq and the local Shia militias including Al-Sadr's mob are wild with joy at having forced the British out. We can eschew the hair splitting here: the British say they did not want to continue posing as a static target for insurgent and militia attacks, they will now proceed to do their Long Range Desert Patrol thing and redefine their role as interdiction of arms and men from Iran. But forced out they have been, because the game was no longer worth the trouble for them.
The British base was immediately looted down to the usual screws and hinges, and a local Iraq Army unit staged a mutiny. In other words, everything normal.
We are not about to criticize the British. This stupid war is not of their making, they are in it only out of loyalty to their treaty partner. They gain no strategic advantage from it win or lose.
Meanwhile, Al-Sadr Has Become The Menace We Predicted His is the strongest faction among the Iraqis, and he is busy at his usual game of killing Sunnis - and persons of any denomination who are in his way as he grabs more and more power.
Where the Americans are - most recently in Baghdad - the killings go down and security improves. Where the Americans are not, or where from they leave, back to the usual killing and butchering.
Having learned from its two major run-ins with the US military, Al-Sadr's militia now stays out of sight when US forces are patrolling; when they leave, the militia emerges again like cockroaches.
Iran Fighting Kurd Separatists says Times London. This is a matter of common knowledge. Operating in very difficult mountain terrain in the Kandil range, Northwest Iran, the Kurds have set up an autonomous government and are resisting the Iranians. Turkey and Iran are working together to stomp out the Kurds. we have yet to pick up reliable information as to the US actions vis-a-vis Iranian Kurds.
Lebanon Damage $15-Billion according to Xinhua quoting UNDP. Lebanon has been put back 15 years in its recovery effort.
Well done, Israel. Great job. Got your two boys back yet?

0230 GMT August 25, 2006

France To Contribute 2 Battalions To UNIFIL Plus we should clarify the term "UNIFIL Plus" is our own, intended to distinguish the new UNIFIL from the pre-Lebanon 2006 force.
France will send 1600 troops and says it is prepared to lead the force, though if Italy sends 3000 France, which will have a total of 2000 including troops already in Lebanon, may not be able to claim the lead.
We wish Europe good luck in Lebanon. It's going to need more than just luck to survive, but who knows. UNIFIL Plus may adopt a non-confrontationist style and Hezbollah may live with it peacefully.
One thing to remember: the entry of European troops into Lebanon is against Syria's strategic interest. So whatever Hezbollah may think about UNIFIL Plus, it is not the only Syria-connected terror group around. And with Al Qaeda said to be arriving in Gaza, can AQ-Lebanon be far behind.
Australia To Add 2 Army Battalions one mechanized, one light infantry, to meet its increased anti-terror, Pacific, and international missions responsibilities. 2600 additional troop slots are to be sanctioned on top of 1600 already approved. This will take the Australian Army to - gasp! - almost 30,000 troops.
We don't mean to make fun of Australia, which is showing far great foresight and courage in the new world war than a lot of countries we could name. Rather, we want to draw attention to the west's inane belief it can fight the new world war without increasing force levels and the sacrifices required of its people.
US House Intelligence Committee Report Faults US Intelligence For Lack Of Iran Intelligence We aren't going to get into this because one cannot discuss anything serious with a bunch of morons. Does the House "Intelligence" Committee - think Austin Powers - think that real intelligence is gotten merely by just giving a few orders, making a few bureaucratic reorganizations, and shifting a bit of money around? Does the Committee think this is a matter of improving traffic flow on a congested interstate highway?. The Committee would do well to refer to the Book of Revelations III:4 - "They wander clueless in the desert who are condemned to remain clueless in the desert." Words as applicable today as they were 3500 years ago. Translation ours.

0230 GMT August 24, 2006

Royal Institute of International Affairs On Iran-US: We Respectfully Disagree We haven't seen the study, but are sure it is cogent, detailed, and thoroughly analyzed as is the case with Chatham House papers. The study says the real real constraint on US acting against Iran is that the latter could destabilize Iraq even further than it is is already destabilized.
Our information is Iran is exercising no restraint on destabilizing Iraq. It is already doing its worst, and if things are not as bad as they could be, its because the Iraqi Shias are, well, Iraqi. Nationalism is the dominant force in the Arab world and not religion.
But as for what we read about the rest of the report, we have no disagreement. Particularly on the point that while US policy in the region is in tatters, Iran is moving confidently to assert its primacy in West Asia. In the confrontation between Iran and the US, the US is not calling any shots at this time, and its pathetic attempts to seize the initiative by working with Israel to attack Hezbollah have cascaded the US into its weakest position ever in the Mideast. If things continue spiraling downhill the way they are, the states that form the backbone of US influence in the region - Saudi, Jordan, Egypt and the UAE - will be making greater accommodations to appease Teheran than the US can imagine in its worst nightmares.
Has Israel No Shame? Oh gosh, how stupid of us to ask. Of course it doesn't. When you have the colossal sense of entitlement Israel manifests, then no matter what you do, you are justified, and no matter what the other side does, they are not justified. So its okay to lay waste to Lebanon because two Israeli soldiers were kidnapped by Hezbollah, and how dare anyone suggest the Israelis were wrong to do that? Etc.
So having gotten itself into a huge mess, and failing to get the US/Europe to pull it out of the mess by taking over the dismantling of Hezbollah, the interdicting of arms from Iran, the neutralization of Syria and so on, the Israelis are now tromping up and down Europe, threatening the Europeans if they don't save Israel, Israel will have to resume the war because the situation is so dire.
Our advice: put a 10-week old sock in it, folks. No one in Europe is buying this "sky is falling theory", and Hezbollah is behaving - to Orbat.com's chagrin and fury - with calm restraint. Our information is the Israelis are doing a lot to provoke Hezb but the latter is refusing to play the Israeli game.
Our further advice: go to your Uncle and bug him. Why should the Europeans provide troops to clean up Israel's potty messes? They didn't encourage you to go to war. But of course, you are learning the hard way about Uncle. He hates losers. He will dump his own crippled mother in favor of a winner. Israel, right now winner you are not. Be warned.
Instead of wasting time, get your reserves back into uniform, send your generals back to school, and start training to do the job right next time. The Arabs smell blood - your blood. If you don't hit back and successfully, you're done for. Your population may as well apply for US visas and you can forget the dreams you waited 2000 years to see materialize.
By the way, and we say this quite seriously, it might not be a bad idea to move Israel to the US. Six million educated, intelligent, and hard-working people - what's not to like?
And also by the way, Israel is not the only country that will benefit from a huge time out. The US needs one too, very badly. The US should use its time out to become energy independent and then go out again on the world empire building thing.

0230 GMT August 23, 2006

Iran Says It Is Ready To Start Serious Talks On Its N-Program but says it will not halt enrichment which is its right. Our reaction? Zzzzzzzzzzz.
US Talks Of Evasions and Sanctions Our reaction? Zzzzzzzzzzz.
Europeans Haunted By The Casualties of Rwanda, Lebanon, Bosnia Etc says Jerusalem Post explaining the delays in sending European troops to Lebanon. We weep with sympathy for the poor haunted Euros. Lets see: it is said 800,000 civilians were killed in Rwanda, now just how how many European troops were killed, can someone tell us? Hundreds of thousands of people died in the Balkan wars. Will someone enlighten us as to how many European forces troops died. Or US troops for that matter?
Don't people who complain of being haunted have any shame or decency? No one gives a hang about your psychological problems, people. Just admit you are cowards and Orbat.com will leave you alone. Your editor is quite big on the cowardice thing himself: but then he doesn't go around fantasizing he counts for anything in the world. Same goes for the Europeans.
But When It Comes To Intimidating Black Africans We Euros Are Just So Brave There is no clear winner in the Congo elections and the armed militias of the president and his main opponent have been fighting. To the rescue, charge! European troops from the peacekeeping mission in Gabon were immediately flown in and the fighting has stopped. What bravehearts! what magnificent, courageous warriors! No danger too great as long there is no chance of them getting hurt.
Something stinks in the Kingdom of Euroland and it isn't just the dead fish.
Jang of Pakistan Accuses West Of Trying To Do Afghanistan On The Cheap And Then Blaming Pakistan People, people, lets be fair here. The west has been doing Afghanistan on the cheap. And if it weren't for Pakistan's support of the new Taliban, the west might even have gotten away with it.
Personally, we are against blaming Pakistan for the situation. We've explained many times Pakistan is only acting in the interests of its national security. The way to handle the situation is not to try and kill the Pakistanis with talk, a stupid game if there ever was one because the Pakistanis are far more skilled at it than the west will ever be.
The way is to send more troops, more aid, and more development people to Afghanistan. No sense our saying that, because we all know how "overextended" - think Austin Powers - the Europeans are. Quite hilarious, actually what the Europeans call overextended. It means they have had to lift their left little toe a tenth of a millimeter.
In The Interests Of Equity Why this sudden surge of Euro bashing? Well, we have to be fair. We've been bashing the US quite a bit these last few weeks, and heaven knows we've actually been quite mild.
But that's not what we meant by being fair. If were were to make the mistake of telling a European: "Two of three US ground forces brigades are either in Iraq, or rotating to/back from Iraq, so why the heck can't you guys move your fat behinds a bit more - just sit on the insurgents/sectarian militias and you'll crush them with the weight and widths of said butts - the Europeans could just as well reply by saying: "You Americans always mistake stupidly running around in circles making holes in the ground with effectiveness and making progress, and we're a bit smarter than that."
When it comes to Iraq, its not easy for us to come up a repartee to the European repartee.

0230 GMT August 22, 2006

Iran Openly defies UN Inspectors CNN says Iran refused IAEA inspectors permission to examine the Nantez gas centrifuge enrichment facility which is supposed to be under safeguard.
This is a clear violation of Teheran's treaty obligations, and it comes a day before Iran said it would give its final answer to the new proposals mooted at the UN to contain its weapons program. It also comes a couple of days after Iran launched maneuvers ostensibly to integrate lessons of Lebanon 2006 into its defense doctrine. Well, since as Lebanon 2006 ended just last week, it seems a bit much to assume the lessons have been learned, analyzed, and applied to the armed forces to the point they are using new doctrines in mass maneuvers. Lets see what happens later today.
Meantime, what is the Great Wuss aka the USA going to do? Blow more hot air? Get San Marino to attack the Iranian N-program? Issue a declaration of victory and go home? We breathlessly await Washington's reaction. We know what Little Wuss aka Israel is going to do. Go shoot a few more Palestinians and feel terribly brave. Bah to you both.
Now Here Is A Fairy Tale The media is carrying stories about how US and Israeli intelligence - oxymoroic words - "detected" that Iran was loading planes with missiles including anti-ship missiles for Hezbollah. The planes would skirt Turkey en route to Syria. US/Israel alerted Turkey to intercept the aircraft.
The planes were in the air and Iran discovered what was happening. It recalled the planes, unloaded them, and sent them off again. The planes were forced to land in Turkey and found to contain - isn't this most amazing? - no weapons.
Israeli, US, and Turkish intel are so clever that we faint with admiration - someone please sprinkle rose-water over us so we can revive.
Orbat.com intel, however, tells a different story. It says Iranian intel has so thoroughly infiltrated Turkish, Israeli, and US intel that it learned - just as the planes were about to enter Turkey - that the game was up. So Iran recalled its aircraft, and just to stick it to the three musketeers - or should it be mouseketeers - sent the planes back without weapons and then laughed itself sick at the spectacle it made of the three.
You didn't like that story? Lets try again. Iran did not send any weapons on planes that were to fly through Turkish airspace to begin with. Iranian intel did not infiltrate anyone. No planes were recalled. What happened is that Israeli intel made asses of themselves and when Turkey found nothing on the planes, the Israelis hurriedly came up with a big fat lie to save their faces.
You didn't like that story? We can come up with more! And we are sure they will be more plausible than the version given to the media.

The Art Of Making Up A Plausible Story: Advice To The Young

It occurred to the editor that he has been sadly delinquent in his occasional Advice To The Young feature. So here goes a short one.
It often said that the number of Americans who claim to have served in the Special Forces in Vietnam exceeds, by a sizeable multiple, the number of SF deployed during that war.
So when your editor does his boasting, he makes no such claim. If someone is complaining about the food they are eating, he'll say: "when I was in the delta all we got to eat for weeks on end was a fistful of rice each day for dinner. We kept the water we cooked the rice in for breakfast. Lunch was whatever we could find by way of reeds - and if we didn't find any reeds, well, we just didn't get any lunch."
At which point the eyes of those who know your editor tend to roll with many groans of "there he goes again". But occasionally there will be an impressionable young thing whose eyes will get as big as saucers. The conversation typically goes like this:
"You were in Vietnam with the Special Forces?" - everyone assumes that because only the SF would be eating that badly.
"Not on your life, ma'am. I am such a coward I avoided the draft, what to speak of enlisting in the Special Forces."
"But then what were you doing in Vietnam?"
"Now, I don't recall mentioning Vietnam. But if you must know, I was minding my own business, just cycling along, viewing the scenery, when I took a wrong turn, and next thing you know, the entire darn world is shooting at me for no reason. Well, ma'am, I just went to ground and spent the next few months trying to stay alive, shivering in my wet socks wondering how I'd ever get out of this alive...etc etc..."
"But what were you really doing in the delta?" Young Thing will ask.
" Just trying to stay alive and get out of there, Ma'am. More I cannot say."
Well, obviously more your editor cannot say because there is no more, but say no more the right way and the Young Thing automatically assumes you were must have been on a clandestine mission for the CIA or whomever and you must have been terribly brave because you are insisting you were such a coward and so on and so forth.
Its called Reverse Psychology. Go to Vietnam? Someone has to be kidding. One look at the feet of a grunt who has been slogging through the paddies for a week or ten days will put anyone off Vietnam or deltas or wet places for the rest of their lives. They will become confirmed pacifists.
As for the handful of rice: well, people would be surprised how many people, tens of millions at a time, have to live like that and be grateful that they at least have boiled rice water for breakfast. There is no reason except for politics anyone should have live like that in the Year of the Lord 2006. But - as they say - that's life, and - after all - if we forgo that next Starbucks its not like the people who are starving will benefit any, isn't it? Isn't it?

0230 GMT August 21, 2006

More Confusion On UNIFIL Plus First the Lebanese President says Lebanon will not accept UN contingents from countries that do not have ties with Israel, aligning his position with that of the Israelis.
Then we are told, by Jerusalem Post, that the Prime Minister and President of Lebanon don't speak with one voice. In the case of the troop deployment this doesn't matter because there is no practical manner in which Israel can be made to accept troops it doesn't want. Nonetheless, while certainly we were aware that the Lebanese polity is highly fragmented, we had no idea that on such critical matters the President and PM can be speaking for themselves/their faction and not the country.
Next, Haaretz Says UN Troops Can Fire On Armed Hezbollah Fighters Till we see confirmation, we are completely confused by this report. Haaretz says a UN spokesperson has said so. We checked the UNIFIL site; it is updated to August 18 and there is no mention of this. The UN News Service is updated to August 20 and there is no mention of this either.
On the one hand, this is a Chapter 6 mission: UNIFIL Plus is not supposed to use force except when threatened, and it is unclear that the mere sighting of armed men who can belong to any faction constitutes a threat.
If it does, then we are talking about Chapter 7, which authorizes proactive use of force. This in effect means UNIFIL Plus has authority to disarm fighters that it sees. Now, if we are slipping over into Chapter 7, who is to provide the airpower, armor, and artillery to take on Hezb - does anyone remember what Hezb did to the very-heavily mechanized and lavishly-airpower-supported Israeli Army just a few days ago?
Because if Hezb fighters are going to be fired on, they are going to retaliate with the whole plethora of mortar attacks, snipers, and roadside/vehicle bombs. Which UN contingent is going to sit there and keep taking casualties?
There is only one contingent that will do it without flinching, and that is the Indian contingent. Hezb is going to walk over the Europeans who are fantastically sensitive to casualties and it will massacre contingents that are trained/armed/equipped for robust response. Politically, however, it is not clear to us the moment the Indians start taking losses that the Government and people of India are going to stand for it. So the contingent's willingness to fight will become irrelevant.
Another Con In The Making? The Lebanese Army has already reached its accommodation with Hezbollah. The Army is at least 40% Shia, by the way, so please understand we are not running down the Lebanese Army: accommodation has to be the order of the say. Hezbollah says it will not openly carry weapons; Lebanese Army says it will not go looking for Hezb weapons.
This is very touching and brings tears to our eyes. In practice, however, who is going to enforce the "no weapons display rule"? It cannot be the Lebanese Army because if it opens fire on Hezb, it could be triggering its own destruction - and the final destruction of Lebanon as a unified state.
So already we are living a lie, and it is possible that even if UNIFIL Plus gets the authority to open fire on Hezb first, most contingents will cheerfully ignore their orders - "Didnt see nuthin', hear nutin', say nutin' - or even be told "unofficially" to disregard armed Hezb fighters unless they are cozily setting up inside a UN post to open fire on Israel.
Balbeck Raid We knew, from our sources, the raid did not achieve its aims and the Israelis were lucky to get away without more casualties than they did. We did not know just how lucky: BBC has the story at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5268870.stm
Risk, however, is the name of the game in commando operations and we certainly cannot blame the Israelis for trying.
What does bother us a bit, however, is the report that the IDF unit was dressed in Lebanese Army uniforms. It was intercepted and questioned by Hezb fighters, who found the IDF unit's Arabic wanting, whereupon the shooting started. Haaretz quotes an Israeli as saying they were lucky 10 of them didn't get killed. The officer killed, by the way, was a lieutenant colonel.
Now, Hezb is obviously not going to follow Geneva, so on the one hand its easy to say, what does Israel gain from following Geneva? The prisoners it may leave in Hezb's hands will be treated no better or no worse than if they had been in IDF uniform, and in any case prisoners would be too valuable to Hezb to execute out of hand.
We also understand Hezb repeatedly used the ruse of Israeli uniforms to get close to IDF units.
This said, we still aren't happy, and we aren't sure exactly why.
Israeli Deployment From Haaretz: "The IDF's Nahal Brigade controls the Taibeh area, Armored Corps Brigade 188 has the area south of Nahal, Armored Corps Brigade 7 has claimed the Maroun al-Ras area, the Golani Brigade is deployed north of Bint Jbail and the Paratroops is in control of the western sector."
Lebanese Deployment HQ 10th Brigade with 3 battalions has taken over Syrian border. Debka.com gives HQ 6th Brigade at Naqura; 11th Brigade originally slated for Bint Jbail went to Tibnine to avoid Hezb positions/fighters at Bint Jbail; and 9th Brigade, which was to go into South Beirut instead shifted south toward the Chouf Mountains.
Afghanistan Fighting Coalition and Afghan forces killed 72 Taliban in one battle when 100 fighters engaged them 35-km from Kandahar. The count comes from the Afghans who lost 4 dead; they say it is a body count and they are searching for more bodies.
This comes right after 4 US and 1 British soldiers were killed in other fighting/ambushes.
Saddam's New Trial To Start This Week He along with 6 cohorts will be tried for the Anfal campaign of the 1980s. This was fought in North Iraq; most of victims were Kurds, and Iraq is said to have gassed villages

0230 GMT August 20, 2006

No Significance To Israeli Commando Raid The raid was not, as Israel coyly says, to disrupt transfer of weapons of Hezbollah. It was one in a continuing series of operations to try and capture one or more senior Hezb officials/commanders and use them as bargaining chips to get back the two Israeli soldiers.
The weapons transfer excuse was used because Israel gave itself permission before the ceasefire to disrupt weapons shipments without it being considered a ceasefire violation. And though many UN members were dubious about Israel's unilateral self-permission, except for a sloppy sea blockade no UN member wants to get involved in interdicting supplies from Syria. So Israel can turn around say, "what ho, you don't want us to interdict, you do it or shut up and let us do it."
Nonetheless, there is no significance to the operation. Our suggestion to readers would be to ignore the sound and fury emanating from the UN and Lebanon. Their reaction is natural. The Israeli effort to get negotiating chips is natural. This sort of thing will continue, particularly as Israel needs to restore its image as a powerful, decisive, successful military machine.
17 Russian Troops Conscripts Murdered, 120 Injured In 1st 6-months Of 2006 says Pravda. The problem of mistreatment of conscripts has been endemic in the Russian Army and before that in the Red Army. Frankly, we are unable to understand why the Russians are unable to get their act together on this issue. This is 2006, not 1906.

0230 GMT August 19, 2006

IsAF Flew 15500 Sorties, Hit 7500 Targets

And the result is what? Zip. Lebanon says less than 70 Hezb fighters were killed. Presumably it is not counting the auxiliaries. As we have been saying every day, Hezb is now openly parading up and down southern Lebanon whereas earlier they kept a low profile. Syria and Iran are resupplying Hezb by truck.

But The Fantasies Continue. Charles Krauthammer, a Washington Post columnist who we consider very level-headed on any subject except Israel, is insisting Hezb suffered heavy casualties. May we politely ask who told him that? US intelligence? US intel knows diddly squat about what happened with Hezb. The Israelis? The Israelis know a bit about what happened with Hezb - when they weren't busy going to earth to avoid Hezb fire, which seems to be just about all the time. Israel believes it killed 500 Hezb. How were these figures calculated? Were bodies counted and photographed? If not the count cannot be reliable. And if Israel killed, say, 4-5 auxiliaries for each fighter, that is no damage because the auxiliaries are just ordinary Hezb supporters. There are hundreds of thousands of able bodied men in the supporters group.
Ms. Rice, the US Secretary of State, is reduced to saying she hopes Hezb will see the error of its ways, and if it doesn't not disarm, then more countries will call it what it is, a terrorist organization. Excuse us, but does Hezb care what names you or I call it?
President Bush, who is either writing the script himself or is at the mercy of dysfunctional advisors again says Hezb was defeated and that in due time the people of Lebanon will come around to the US position and see Hezb has to go. Saying these things is really pathetic. The people of Lebanon are not interested in Washington's point of view. They are looking at billions in damage, the displacement of at least three-quarters of a million people, and the traumatization of the whole country, all because the US was encouraging Israel to go on fighting. Moreover, 40% of Lebanon is Shia. We hate to even speculate on what they think of Washington. Neither Mr. Bush nor his advisors have any explanation not just for Hezb's decision to now flaunt its power openly, but its massive organizational capacity - backed by Iranian cash - to quickly bring relief to the suffering Lebanese while the US and the official Lebanese government do diddly.
Meantime, Back At The UN Ranch Germany says it will not send ground troops. Debka says Turkey has also pulled out. Finland will send 250 troops - in November.
Malaysia is really helping its case for sending a battalion to UNIFIL Plus. As we had mentioned earlier, Israel wants no troops from Malaysia and Indonesia because these countries do not recognize Israel. Now Malaysia says it should not be up to Israel to say who contributes.
What the Malaysians need is a serious smacking upside their addled heads. Do they honestly believe they can deploy without Israeli agreement and their deployment is solely a matter between the UN and Lebanon? Are they looking for a fight with the Israelis? Because if they deploy without Israel's position, they will get one. And it will be no use their appealing to other UNIFIL contingents to come to their aid: everyone is making quite clear their troops are not going to be involved in any fighting with anyone.
If it isn't up to Israel to say yeh or neh, then why not send Syrian and Iranian troops to south Lebanon?
What is about this war that is driving everyone to irrationality in their statements? The only ones being cool are the Iranians: they are calmly saying they do not aid Hezb but welcome its victory.
Sri Lanka We have not been reporting the resumption of full-scale hostilities between the government and the LTTE. Partly this is because we were focusing on Lebanon, partly because the situation is just too depressing. The Sri Lankan Army has cut off the northern part of the island, that is where the LTTE is based. The Army is allowing limited supplies to be sent to areas under its control, but according to BBC, it is not allowing residents to flee. We are not clear why.
Darfur UN is deeply worried because the Sudan government is preparing a major offensive against the rebels. There is no sign of the expanded peacekeeping force which was supposed to bring "robust" - that overworked adjective - contingents including Euro troops to Darfur. Given happenings in Lebanon, Darfur is more or less a forgotten issue.
We don't see where the 17,000 new troops the US-UN want deployed are coming from. Moreover, Russia and China are opposed to further deployments.
Iraq In Iraq, US forces are bashing on. When they are on the scene, things stabilize. When they are withdrawn, things go to heck and beyond. That said, there is no sense in detailing the endless actions which result in 1, 2, 5 US troop deaths every day.
In Basra, two rival Shia militias are at loggerheads and a mini civil war is about to break out. The British are way too thin on the ground to do anything: it was the lack of sufficient troops and the laid back style of policing that has led to the current situation. The Brits want to go home and we sympathize with them, because the Iraq war makes no sense anymore except to the US administration, which is in such a state we doubt it makes sense to itself.
The Brits could react to our criticism by saying well, they could have been tough like the US, but that would have cost them unacceptable losses and the home front would have forced their withdrawal. They could also say that just like what is happening in US operating areas, the moment they scaled back, the same trouble we are seeing today would have broken out anyway. That being the case, why emulate the US and take huge casualties because in the end it is not going to work out. Should a Brit say this to us, we certainly would have no reply.
Corruption Costs Iraq $7.5 Billion in 2-years, according to an article forwarded to us by reader Marcopetroni. This is just another reason why things are not working out in Iraq and why the US civilian development side is completely fed up.
Iraq Ethnic Cleansing Continues with Shias forcing Sunnis out and Sunnis forcing Shias out. This is happening on an increasing scale even in Baghdad, where the US and Iraq presence is very strong. There is no sense to our saying anything more on this subject.

0230 GMT August 18, 2006

France Commits Only To 200 Troops For Lebanon - And We Think France Is Acting Sensibly given there is no agreement by Hezbollah to disarm. In fact, Hezb is openly strutting all over south Lebanon, something it did not do before the war.
France says not to jump to conclusions, there could be more troops. There will be no more troops because the material conditions will not change.
UN is feeling shattered because France was to be the anchor of UNIFIL Plus. Don't feel bad, UN, the whole thing was a fantasy anyway.
Bangladesh Loyally Offers Two Motorized Infantry Battalions It has built up its army specifically for UN missions. The western media can never resent snarky, slimy comments about how the Bangladesh government makes money sending troops to the UN, but that is hardly the reason Dacca is such a strong supporter of UN peacekeeping. The Bangladeshis genuinely believe in the mission, they welcome the increased attention it gets them on the world stage, and make the most of the opportunity for their troops to get overseas experience.
It is quite typical of some smaller countries - Nordland and Canada come to mind - that they are idealistic about peacekeeping and willing to put their money where their mouth is. This is not something US, UK, France etc. can be expected to understand.
If any comment has to be made on the Bangladesh offer, it is the troops are underequipped and their army has no logistic ability to support global deployments. There is a big overhead that has to be picked up by other countries. On the plus side, the two Bangali battalions will require less support than 100 US troops of 150 British troops or 200 French troops.
Israel Objects To Some Muslim Contingents Specifically those from Malaysia and Indonesia, and this too is perfectly sensible.
Meanwhile, Idiots In Power Continue To Speak Of The Lebanese Army as something quite independent from Hezbollah. Now, it is not polite of us to call a whole bunch of high officials and politicians idiots, but there is no help for it.
How many times do we have to explain that (a) Lebanon is composed of several ethnic groups with often-divergent and often-competing interests; (b) the Lebanese army is a microcosm of the society; (c) Shias constitute a substantial part of the Lebanese Army - we have no current figures but doubt it is less than 30%; (d) Any order to the Lebanese Army to act against Hezbollah will split the Army and destroy it; (e) When the Israelis could not handle Hezb, how in heaven's name is the Lebanese Army supposed to do it, assuming the Army is willing to fight in a civil war as a servant of America and Israel, right after its "masters" have destroyed Lebanon?
Oh Yes, Lets Not Forget Planned US "Aid" There are actually some people in Washington DC who believe a few tens of millions of dollars of equipment and spares and training will make the Lebanese Army effective enough to take on Hezb. Well, even if the above problems can be ignored, and they cannot, any package the US gives will not only be peanuts, it will also be perceived as an insult by Lebanese who hold the US responsible for the $1-2 billion worth of damage the US-Israel combination caused Lebanon
US should have immediately announced $500-million aid and immediately send troops and resources to start the process of rebuilding. These days, you can't expect Washington to commit proper resources for anything - with the exception of Starbucks and Walmart, private corporations that want to take over the world.
So what do we call these giant minds in Washington? You are welcome to call them what you want. We are very polite people, so we will limit ourselves to "morons".
And Lets Not Forget Syria because the minute US/France try expanding their influence with the Lebanese Army, Syria will push the other way and expand support to Hezb and other anti-west militias. Take a look at the map of the Mideast: Lebanon is Syria's front gate. Damascus is not about to let anti-Syrian powers become gatekeepers. As for the US "convincing" Syria its better to cooperate by threats of force, Washington should forget it. Washington's bluff on Syria has been called. The Iranians are waiting to see what the UN does in September on the N-issue before calling Washington's bluff.

0230 GMT August 17, 2006

More Snarfing, Sneering, and Snorfing This is getting tiresome: each time the editor sits down to enjoy a tasty, refreshing Diet Pepsi - 0 calories, artificial sweetener, carbonated water, some secret ingredient, and caffeine, for which your editor pays 40 cents a can in bulk (a metaphor for modern American life, if you need one) - more than half the drink is getting wasted as he tries to keep it down while reading the news and then starts laughing. Among the now daily absurdities concerning Lebanon-Israel:
Turkey Wants Another UN Resolution Clarifying Things before sending troops to Lebanon. That makes France, Turkey, and Italy - the 3 biggest potential contributors wanting clarifications of one side or the other.
Dear Ankara: we don't get paid so we don't know why we are wasting our time explaining things to you.
The US snookered you: the UN resolution and the side agreements you thought you were agreeing to were never the real agreements - or lack of them. You deserve no sympathy for the US sticking it to you - we remember only too well the double cross you pulled on the US in 2003. The difference being the US was already about to invade Iraq when you pulled your fast one and had to go ahead, whereas the US snooker was so stupid a 5-year old could have avoided the trap, and you certainly are quite cunning.
The real agreement is: you will put your troops in-between Israel and Hezbollah to help out Israel and the US. You will get hammered by both sides and suffer casualties. The US will utter soothing words about "Hezbollah must realize this and must realize this..." - about as rational as Germany and Japan telling the world after VE/VJ Day that the US must realize this and realize that. Note to self: write to US government patiently explaining Hezbollah is more concerned about the pimple on its nose than what the US wants and thinks. Back to Turkey: Aside from words, you will get no help from the US. If you need more clarifications, we'll be happy to provide them. No need to waste your time looking for clarifications from US/UN/Israel/Lebanon.
Hezbollah Sticks It To Washington and Tel Aviv Just yesterday we were being told Hezbollah would not surrender its weapons but would not display them. This was being seen by some as some sort of concession by Hezb.
This bit of inanity is out-of-date a day later: Hezbollah fighters are now out in the open all over south Lebanon, and they are armed.
Note to brilliant diplomatic minds globally: "Dear Dips, before the Lebanon war, Hezbollah very rarely appeared in public with weapons because it is a secretive organization: there are any number of cases where it now emerges even family members did not know their relatives were Hezb fighters. That Hezb is now openly carrying weapons shows just how much concern Hezb has for your opinion.
Lebanon Sticks It To US And US deserves it. While Israel was busy destroying Lebanon, US had nothing to say except "we will not impose deadlines on Israel." The US sacrificed Lebanon in its anti-Iran crusade. So US thinks that now Lebanon will cooperate with Washington in disarming Hezb? Grow up, Washington: you now harbor the largest collection of fools in the world.
Lebanon has not just said it will NOT, repeat NOT, repeat NOT - we have to say these things over and over again because Washington is a bit slow - disarm Hezb by force, it has now said that to remove Hezb from south Lebanon is to depopulate the south because the people of the south and Hezb are one. This is so obvious it beggers the imagination that Washington did not see it.
Washington In Its King Canute Mode Washington apparently still thinks it counts for something on the Mideast stage. It is busy issuing fatwas to everyone in the Middle East, and everyone is simply ignoring them.
Fighting Hezbollah: More Horrifying Details Emerge Readers had best read this article, forwarded by Marcopetroni, for themselves http://mosnews.com/news/2006/08/16/hizbullahchechens_.shtml The 3 adjectives that came immediately to our mind were horrifying, heartbreaking, and humiliating. Here are two excerpts:
Military sources said numerous Israeli combat units, without effective air or armor support, spent most of their time in Lebanon paralyzed by Hezbollah fire. They said hundreds of soldiers were often overwhelmed by as few as a dozen Hezbollah mortar and anti-tank gunners within sight of the Israeli border.
In several cases, Israeli commanders, citing Hezbollah squads, dismissed orders to advance. The military reported the detention of five Engineering Corps soldiers, including a reserve company commander, for refusing to embark on a mission in Lebanon.
Now, if you'd read between the lines of the reports in the Israeli press, the second excerpt will come as no surprise: there was widespread refusal to obey orders, and in many case the refusals were made with the concurrence of battalion commanders. Concerning the first, we knew the Israelis were having a tough time; but we had no clue it was that bad.
Please understand that if the same reservists and regulars had faced 5000 Syrian armored fighting vehicles descending on them, they would have fought to the last tank and last round. But in Lebanon, once their nose was bloodied, they simply decided that the kidnapping of two soldiers and the killing of six more in the ambush that started it all was not a threat to the existence of Israel.
And who is to say they were wrong? Not us, for sure.

We misspelled Mr. Luke Graysmith's name yesterday [Letters]. We are always confused between the American and English spelling of "grey" versus "gray". Apologies, and many of them.

Israeli Army Flees Lebanon No, this is not Al-Jazerra or IRNA speaking, this is Orbat.com speaking. What else does one call it when:

Israel is withdrawing as fast as possible from all

southern Lebanon before there is any sign of UN troops beyond the ones already present, before the Lebanese Army has arrived, and most of all, Hezbollah has not conceded a single point: it has refused to hand back the Israeli hostages, it has refused to disarm, it has refused to promise it will not attack Israel again.

Just think how wonderful this is: Hezbollah is already being resupplied and reinforced - by truck - and Israel says it will not interfere because the trucks are not directly threatening its positions and soldiers. This is not some secret intelligence report - though we did see it two days ago - this is in the Washington Post. And what positions and soldiers anyway, since one Israeli position after another is being evacuated at top speed.

Israel says its priority is to release reservists.

OK, So We Wanted An End To The War But Why Is Israel Humiliating Itself? We wanted Israel to ceasefire because

Its attacks on civilians were getting completely out of control - the Israelis were smashing and burning everything in sight from petty fury; and neither its tactics nor its strategy was working.

This does not mean we wanted to see a race between Israeli units to see who can "withdraw" faster and a complete abandonment of any Israeli condition stated before the ceasefire.

Has Israel Gone Bonkers? If So, US Needs To Cut And Run Too We went on and on about Israeli stupidity about the assumptions/conduct of the war. Of course, we'd heard the rumors that Israel was going to strike anyway this year. But we refused to believe other stuff that we'd heard, that this was a joint US-Israeli operation. We didn't think the US could be that stupid.

This is the sorry fate of prophets: wrong on all counts. Mr. Bush with his cohort Mr. Olmert again abused our trust - and America's trust - in his administration and again made fools of us. When will Orbat.com ever learn?

But what Israel is doing now is not displaying arrogance in its assumed capabilities, it is committing suicide. The US needs to cut and run from Israel before this gets any worse. Much better to make Teheran the US partner in the Mideast than Israel - the Iranians at least are rational.

Needless to say, the wonderful bunch of people that advises Mr. Bush and shapes US policy is likely to make darn sure the US commits suicide along with Israel. But why take the rest of us with you, Washington folks? You want to die, why don't you all throw yourselves en masse lemming-like in front of a 100 x 100-ton-car coal train? The Editor knows just the spot for you, too. And we'll do our best not to miss you.

Oh Yes, Now Israel Says Talks With Syria A Possibility This is in Jerusalem Post. The defense minister said it: "The conflict with Hizbullah may have created a new opportunity for renewed dialogue with the Palestinians, and potentially also with Syria, Defense Minister Amir Peretz said Tuesday afternoon."

The leader of the Israeli opposition party Israel Beiteinu, chairman Avigdor Lieberman "said that Peretz was suffering from a failure to acknowledge reality."

These Israelis are just far too polite. Our reaction was: "Code Red! Heavily delusional Olmert Cabinet Official has broken out of the looney bin! All the little men in white coats are ordered to emergency stations! This official must be recaptured immediately, before he starts a war with Iran, loses it, and says the defeat has led to new opportunities to talk to Teheran."

0230 GMT August 15, 2006

Israel-Lebanon 2006 We are not going to bother reporting either the silly victory claims of Prime Olmert and President Bush, and nor are we going to get into the recriminations that are already starting in Israel and will start in the US. We have analyzed this subject to death; our recriminations have been recriminated many times over already.
UNIFIL Plus France has a 2000 troop contingent in Lebanon to evacuate EU and other people and hopes to deploy it in the south within 10 days - we say this with accompaniment from Bob Dylan singing "When will they ever learn?". Not to belabor the obvious, but the above should be changed to" France has a 2000 troop contingent in Lebanon to "evacuate" people..." wink-wink-wink. Had Hezb staged a coup in Beirut we may have learned the French were there for other reasons. Consider the US has evacuated people of interest without 2000 troops just hanging around in Lebanon.
Italian government is facing a controversy over the proposed 3000 troop deployment: opposition is saying they want clearly defined rules of engagement because the current rules are confusing.
Orbat.com is feel terribly put upon by the Italians. Why is we have to explain these things to everyone when we don't even get paid? The rules are not confusing, they are very clear: UNIFIL is to help the Lebanese government disarm Hezb - is that UNR 1559, we forget? Lebanese government is not going to disarm Hezb. It will not be asking UNIFIL for help. Any attempt UNIFIL makes to disarm anyone is beyond its mandate and it will get hammered by Hezb. And any time the Israelis, with their massively exaggerated sense of self-importance and we-have-been-wronged-so-we-are-going-to-punch-you feel UNIFIL is getting in the way, they too will attack UNIFIL.
Hezbollah Begins Rehabilitation Work OK, this is why the Lebanese will not turn against Hezb - even now. While Lebanese Government runs around like a headless chicken, on the day of the ceasefire Hezb announces it will pay 15,000 families whose houses were totally destroyed compensation - rent for one year and payment for furniture - and it will other people to repair their homes. Report is from Jang of Pakistan.
Letter From Luke Greysmith [With reference to our comment that the real loser in the Lebanon War 2006 is the US] On the contrary: The UN, not the US, was the big loser (again). Big surprise there. We just look like we're proud of our fighting cock. Now the Israeli’s have won a propaganda victory that provides them the liberty to operate at will. The next stage will be the reckoning for IDF and Hezbollah + ?.

0230 GMT August 14, 2006

Snicker, Snarf Snort Pardon us, the editor was laughing so hard his Diet Pepsi went up his nose. This is the situation re UN 1701:
The countries going into expanded UNIFIL have said they are not going to fight Hezbollah. All sides have to agree that Hezbollah will lay down arms and Mega UNIFIL - or as the Indians would say, Maha UNIFIL - will help the Lebanon Army to help Hezb to lay down arms.
The Lebanese cabinet meeting to accept the ceasefire was postponed because Hezb told the cabinet they were not going to hand over their arms to anyone.
Any number of Israeli sources have made clear Israel will interpret the ceasefire in the loosest of terms and will be ready to attack in the event of any provocation - Israel will define what constitutes a provocation and what is the appropriate response.
We save the best for last: Hezb says it will not ceasefire as long as Israeli troops remain in Lebanon
US Is The Big Loser Israel, of course, has lost this one and the Arabs are openly saying they now see hope for the demise of Israel. They feel they finally have the right weapon. Well, if you are of the "Israel has a right to exist" school, which we are, this is terrible news.
But Israel is only one of 20-30-40 Arab/Mideast nations the US deals with, and one of 200 countries around the world the US deals with. Though no one says it openly, there is an understanding that should the existence of Israel become unviable, a second Israel will rise - most likely in the US. In other words, the US will not let Israel be extinguished. But US does not have such a terminal commitment to Israel-in-the-Middle-East that it would be willing to risk serious pain. We'll talk about this another time if this idea is a new one to our readers.
The US has neatly shot itself not in the foot, but in that sensitive spot, damage to which causes one to start singing soprano in the choir. The magnitude of the US defeat in the Mideast is so staggering and so unexpected that it will take months for the realization to dawn fully - but readers, please believe us when we say the realization is already dawning across the board among the American power elite.
You Think The Israelis Have a Fiasco? We'll Show You A Fiasco Report from Defense News, a leading US military industry trade publication:
A visit to the base this week found four of the navy’s five patrol boats berthed because of a fuel shortage, while Thamir said just 10 of the 24 FABs and one of the 10 rigid inflatable boats were operational.
The base is Umm Qasr, homeport of the Iraqi Navy. An FAB is a fast aluminum boat.
This is the end product of three years of American, British, and allied efforts to build the Iraqi Navy. This what hundreds of millions of dollars of American taxpayer money have got the American people in return. We aren't even going to mention the reconstruction of Iraq effort, where billions of dollars have gone and every major program is in complete disarray, with the US finding it cannot wash its hands of this disaster fast enough.
All this is a result of grand incompetence on the part of the US government. The Americans have become like the Israelis: when it comes to killing, no one does it better than the Americans. When it comes to doing anything constructive, America is no longer capable of undertaking the simplest tasks. America has not been able to deal with one natural disaster, Katrina, and the people of New Orleans are neither trying to kill everyone nor planting roadside bombs nor massacring civilians. What can it do for Iraq?
We need to get out Iraq because the people who run America are incompetent.
The only question Orbat.com's readers should be asking themselves: are we going to sit here and watch our venal power elite run this great country into the ground, or are we going to stand up and fight, not Al Qaeda or Hezbollah or Al Sadr, but the venal power elite

1830 GMT August 13, 2006

Rockets: OK, Folks, We Surrender We really thought the drop in rockets launched meant that Israel was succeeding against this threat. After all, IDF is at the Litani River, 30,000 troops are in Lebanon - at least it is said - and presumably Hezb has its hands full.
So the result is? Today 250 rockets were launched at Israel, including long-range ones - you know, the ones the launchers for which IDF claims it knocks off several a day?
So we have to give up. We have explanations, y'all take your pick and please do send us yours if you wish.
1. Hezb has more rocket crews, rockets, and longer-range launchers than even the worst-case estimates.
2. Having got the measure of the "full-scale" - please excuse us while we stop laughing - IDF invasion, Hezb is back to its Bang Bang Maxwell ways.
3. Hezb carefully husbanded its remaining resources to make a big splash on Sunday; the number of rockets will fall off again.
4. The rockets, crews, launchers for the short-range variety are hidden in deep bunkers/tunnels. IDF doesn't know where most of the bunkers/tunnels are, and even when it does, it waits for airpower to do the attacking, instead of doing it the horribly risky and dirty way that gives success: send infantry and accept the casualties, as the US found it had to do in Vietnam.
5. Your explanation here.
Meanwhile, this is what passes for objectivity in Jerusalem Post: "Despite the declaration of a cease-fire, Hizbullah appears to have stepped up its rocket attacks..." Etc.
Well, lets see. The ceasefire comes into effect Monday; Israel has said it will continue all neccessary operations till the UN force arrives . The first troops, from standby earmarked units, could start arriving in 10-15 days, and it could take 6 months for the full force of 15,000 to deploy. So Israel really has given itself a 6 month deadline, at least, and the ceasefire can go do what it wants. Further, Israel has said it reserves the right to defend itself, so basically there is no ceasefire except as Israel defines, even after 6 months.
Lets see further: Israel attacks Lebanon mainly through the night and there was no air ceasefire by Israel on the night of Saturday/Sunday. Hezb launches its rockets during the day. So it could be said Hezb is merely retaliating against the usual IsAF attacks.
So What Is Our Point? Media has to be rigorously fair. That does not mean saying there is moral equivalency. You can be completely opposed to Hezb - and we are - without saying everything Israel is doing is right. JPost has to present the Israeli side, it is right and patriotic to so do. That does not mean it has to distort facts and realities.

0500 GMT August 13, 2006

Saturday's IDF Toll 24 KIA This includes 5 crew of the helicopter which fell in enemy territory after it was shot down. As nearly as we can make out 12 men were killed when their tanks were hit by ATGMs - four incidents, and 3 were killed in infantry fighting. Plus two killed in an accident when a reversing tank ran over them that accounts for 17 of the 19 ground troops. another 70 troops have been wounded, many severely. As far as we know Israel has not been releasing DOW figures.
Again, we suggest readers not see too much into the figures because the number of troops in Lebanon has jumped. Also, because the Israeli Army has to move fast now, and no more fighting for a few hours and then withdrawing to safety south of the border, it is much more exposed.
At the same time, we have to express admiration for Hezb. Standing up to a furious air offensive and tanks en masse is very hard.
We are very sorry for the families of the Israeli soldiers killed. We feel no such sorrow for Hezb fighters: they are the enemy. But every time we feel bad for the IDF, we are forced to confront the harsh reality that Israel has mercilessly attacked Lebanese civilians not just to destroy auxiliaries who back up Hezb, but to terrorize the Lebanese to force them to turn against Hezb.
Hezb Resupply Continues from Syria says IDF. Forget the donkeys, the stuff is coming in by truck. We've said repeatedly the IsAF does not have the means for this kind of interdiction even given the small area involved.
IDF Says Iranian Revolutionary Fighters' Bodies Discovered It says there are no identifying documents, but there are tattoos which suggest the Guards are fighting with Hezb. "Several dozen" Guards have been sent. Well, we don't know about the several dozen business. We believe by now at least 200 have been sent - though of course we have no clue how many are in the south.
Step 1: keep in mind Israelis are masters of intelligence misinformation. Remember Saddam, Gulf II, and WMD? Brought to you courtesy of Tel Aviv. What better way to keep the US sweet than to say Iranians are fighting in Lebanon?
Step 2: keep in mind this is completely logical, even if you want to disregard our information. Flying Revolutionary Guards to Damascus and getting them across the border is child's play. It would seem critical for Iran to support Hezb at this juncture. If Hezb in any way feels Iran has cut them loose when the going got tough, this could create major complications for Teheran. In any case, why would Iran NOT want to support its won creation? Valuable battle experience, a big poke in the eye of the Great Satan, not so gentle reminder to west "you think you're going to punish us for our N-program? We're going to punish you, not the other way around."
Step 3: if Iran is sending in the Revolutionary Guards, Israel is absolutely right to look for a way out of the mess. But we will still blame the Israelis for being stupid as potted palms because any idiot could have predicted the arrival of the Guards. This all should have been thought through. Of course, when it comes to Arabs/Iranians, Israelis are so attention deficit you have only to get one Arab to pop up and go "neena neena neena" and the Israelis go mad with rage and start doing all kinds of absurd things. They have gotten away with in the past. Hezb and the Revolutionary Guards are a different kettle of fish - not so tasty, eh, Mr. Olmert?

0230 GMT August 13, 2006

Saturday 11 IDF Soldiers Killed including two in an accident. The toll does not include that incurred when a helicopter which we believe is a CH-53 was shot down by Hezbollah. The organization claims it used a new missile - it is unclear to us if it was a SAM or an ATGM.
Fortunately, the CH-53 had just landed its load of troops. The CH-53 commonly carries up to 60 troops and loosing one in the air can be catastrophic. No one in their right mind uses the CH-53 the way IDF used theirs, which was to land a large force behind Hezbollah "lines" - more fantasies here; but as always the IDF was overconfident. Thanks to great luck only the crew and possibly a few other troops are casualties.
Word to the IDF: Can you stop saying things like "there were no combat troops aboard?". Makes you all sound like blithering idiots. First, a soldier is a soldier and a life is a life, regardless of if the man belongs to a combat arm. Second, you may not belong to a combat arm, but the minute you are in the middle of a fight and people are trying to kill you, you become a combat soldier. IDF's inane statements are demeaning in the extreme to its soldiers: thsi is the second time we've seen the phrase used.
The Significance Of The Increased Casualties Is Zero There are many more IDF running around in Hezb territory so more are going to get killed.
Ooooh IDF, You Are So Brave, May We Feel Your Muscles? IDF says it has tripled the number of troops in Lebanon. Swoon.
Seeing as there were less than 5000 at a time in Lebanon to begin with, are we supposed to be impressed you now have 15,000? Give us a break, someone.
Face it, guys, you are a bunch of jokers. You can blame your Prime Minister all you want, but you are just as much to blame for the Lebanon fiasco. By the way, don't think you're going to get away blaming your Chief of Staff. Okay, so he's a little intelligence challenged, but then he's a fighter pilot in charge of the land forces so what do you expect. IDF ground commanders, you messed up before the war, you messed up during the war. Be officers of honor and acknowledge that.
Jerusalem Post On The Ceasefire http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1154525859901&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull Says the same things we have been saying since this excuse for a war started over a month ago. Read it and weep if you are an American, because US has just been kicked - again - in the pants so hard that it is numb and doesn't even know it will not be walking straight for a good long time in this region of the world. There is no one to blame but the US government - this fiasco is not the making of Mr. Bush alone.
We are sick of the poltroons who run this country's foreign policy. They seem all to be badly in need of Ritalin.
Meanwhile, Back In The UK CNN quotes a lawyer for 2 of the suspects detained in the new airliner bomb plot as saying they are "upset".
The bad, bad, bad British cops pushed one of them and used a term of racial abuse. They are so upset they were crying, says the lawyer. We ourselves are crying so hard we can barely write this. Then those bad bad bad cops wouldn't give them food and water for 26 hours. Boo hoo hoo. And their cells are cold and they haven't been given blankets. Triple boo hoo hoo.
Gad, those British cops are worse than the old Gestapo and KGB. They would have given you blankets all right: one each to wrap your dead bodies.
News for our British chummies: lucky for you the American cops aren't the ones who caught you. And you are just incredibly lucky it wasn't the CIA who caught you. CIA is so polite you wouldn't have even had to ask for water: they'd have given you more than you ever wanted.

1430 GMT August 12, 2006

Summary Update

Israel Reaches Litani, Continues Offensive as expected. several major fights took place, with Israel losing 5 killed and 60 wounded. Two more soldiers were killed in an accident.
Yesterday 150 rockets were launched. Our assessment is 4 division HQs and at least 12 brigade HQs are involved in the overall war. We expect the number of rockets to fall as IDF advances to Litani and perhaps beyond; nonetheless, we are surprised this late in the game the number is still well above 30-50 - which Israel now says it what it hopes to achieve.
Ceasefire Expected At 7 AM Tel Aviv Time Monday but Orbat.com readers can expect plenty of fighting after that.
Massive Israeli Anger At Handling Of The War Because we cannot read Hebrew and have access only to E-editions of the Israeli press, and because IDF has heavily restricted media access to front-line units plus has imposed tough censorship rules, Orbat.com has been behind the curve in the matter of how Israelis view the war.
There is a huge anger at the ill-preparedness of reserve units. For example, one elite tank brigade earlier slated to deactivate - Israel is cutting two armored divisions as part of its post Gulf II realignment - has not exercised since fall 2004. True the impending deactivation may have contributed to slackness; nonetheless, the brigade was holding a key sector of the Syrian front. There are any number of reports the reservists lack essentials such as flak jackets, night-scopes, even first-aid stores. Another example: a reserve armored engineer unit was issued older combat engineer vehicles on which it had not trained.
Politically, the prime minister is in serious trouble. Our anticipation is that despite the seismic cracks that are appearing in the Israeli polity, it is still holding together because of the crisis, but once the stand-down starts, there will be heck and more to pay at home. The irony is that at least some Israelis understand that a bigger land force would have led to a bigger disaster - we have been saying for some time the IDF was completely unprepared for this war and this enemy.
One Israeli Poll Shows Only 20% Believe Israel Is Winning The Washington Post, from where we got this figure, correctly notes poll results vary, but this is staggering. Most of the remainder say neither side is winning, about 30% say Israel is losing. Which militarily is the case.
US Clutches At Straws The pathetic state of American policy is revealed in a US source saying that Hezbollah's two ministers in the Lebanese cabinet did not oppose the ceasefire and this is taken as evidence Hezb will not oppose the ceasefire.
There are so many absurdities in this formulation that we'd need a book for a detailed critique. Suffice it to say that obviously Hezb will not oppose a ceasefire: it was no part of Hezb's plan to be in a general war with Israel. They thought they'd snatch 2 Israelis - just as the Israelis have snatched thousands of Lebanese - and negotiate a prisoner exchange. Hezb had come out the winner in its asymmetrical war with the much-touted IDF and - this is important - the people of Lebanon are really suffering under the Israeli air offensive. Hezb is on top of its game and a ceasefire now is perfect.
But none of this means in the slightest that Hezb has or will agree to disarm! It will use the ceasefire to expand and rearm while attacking UN troops who get in its way and creating as much low-cost mayhem against Israel as it can to keep forcing Israel into over-reactions.
Subsequent to our writing the above Hezbollah announced it will accept a ceasefire.
Fears IDF Is Losing Its Edge Waiting For Invasion Go-Ahead This is from a report in the Washington Post, and confirms in spades our oft-stated belief the IDF has won its wars not because it is that good, but because its adversaries have been that bad. How can real soldiers lose their edge after 2-3 weeks of mobilization? They need months of training to do the job, and people are already complaining the troops are losing their edge? What edge? They didn't have an edge to begin with. Moreover, this is 2002, not 1973 or 1967 or 1948. Israelis have lost their toughness, and the citizen army's soldiers cannot bear to be mobilized for more than a few weeks. The losing their edge is simply a synonym for "wanting to go home".
In 2002, the Indian Army stood to for ten months ready to attack at a moment's notice. The men were in the field continuously, there was no leave, no rest-room breaks that the Israelis seem to enjoy after a few days on the border, they were absolutely exhausted, men were dying every day because of mines and accidents of every type that are inevitable when you are waiting for the jump-off signal. But no one was worried about edges being lost. The huge concern was that the equipment was being run down without an opportunity for refurbishment.

0230 GMT August 12, 2006

UN Security Council Adopts Resolution 1701

As We Were Told By Our Sources: Resolution 1701 contains many pious hopes, and as we have been saying, will settle nothing because the resolution is based on a sham facade assumption. This is that the Government of Lebanon wants to, and can, disarm Hezbollah. Hezb is, of course, not a party to the agreement, but in La La Land, that hardly matters.
Israel Has The Right To Respond To Hezbollah Attacks Thus, there is no action against Lebanon that is prohibited to the IDF. If Israel feels it needs to blow all of Lebanon to bits to stop Hezb, it can now legally do so under 1701.
The Lebanese Army will Take Over South Lebanon And With UNIFIL's Assistance, Disarm Hezbollah Pursuant To Earlier Resolutions You and which cripple's army, grandma? The Lebanese Army will be a facilitator for Hezb, and if it gets in the way of Hezb for any reason, expect big, big, big trouble. This has to be the most inane part of the resolution.
Hezb Must Return The 2 Prisoners - but hidden in that part of the resolution is a minefield: Israel must discuss the issue of Lebanese prisoners. Israel will not discuss anything, the two men will not be returned.
Israel Must Discuss Shaba Farms With Lebanon Too bad UN says the farms area belongs to Syria, and even if UN changes its mind, Syria is not going to agree.
Minefield Alert, Tel Aviv: Bad Boy, Bad Boy, Watcha Gonna Do? Israel has just walked into a very, very, very lethal minefield. You see, there is this UN resolution which Israel is benefiting from, this new 1701. But there are dozens of UN resolutions against Israel which it has ignored for years and decades. So pretty soon people are going to say: wait a minute: what about Israel obeying resolutions? Israel, of course, with its usual contempt for the UN and international law, does not see this as a minefield. It will continue to ignore those naughty resolutions and count on Big Dumbo AKA the US to veto. This time, however, we suspect there are going to be consequences not to Israel's liking.
Our Considered Opinion On 1701 Let us not pull our punches. Israel's gamble in unleashing war with a one-point strategic plan - that the international community would step in and save it from its stupidity, has worked. Good job Israel: lost the war but won - on the surface - the diplomatic round. But that was just Round 1 in the new war, Israel. You're smart enough to figure it out.
As for the agreement and the role of France and the US: It is a cynical agreement made by morally corrupt governments. It does not address any of the basic issues in the Mideast. It will not buy peace for a day longer than Hezb considers neccessary.
The real winner at the front: a movement that is now a mortal enemy of the US.
The real winner strategically: Teheran. Round One has gone unequivocally to Teheran. The diplomatic dance to impose limits on Iran's N-program was dead anyway, now the west has driven a silver stake through the heart of their own efforts. Teheran trained Hezb to resist Israeli armor. Teheran has seen its training, concepts, everything, validated big time. We never thought the US was serious about a land invasion of Iran. But if it is, it has a window of about a year. After that fuggaedabhatit. Since the US is bogged down in Iraq - well, why go over this all over again.
Thank you, advisors to Mr. George Bush. In this new crisis you have again done your patriotic best to destroy America by handing victory to the other side. If we didn't know better, we'd think you all were on Teheran's payroll. That you are on Tel Aviv's payroll is, of course, incontrovertible. Frankly, we admire the way Tel Aviv has assessed you true worth - very little - and taken advantage of you.
Orbat.com Declares Its Support For the Next Prime Minister Of Israel Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. First, we absolutely love that name. Second, we think she is absolutely the cutest thing we've seen in a long time. Are we being sexist and frivolous? Absolutely we are, and we're proud of it. At least we have absolutely rational reasons to support her. Rational - that's more than can be said of what passes for Washington's policy in the Mideast.
Does this mean we support Mrs. Rona Ambrose for next PM of Canada? Obviously absolutely we do.

2130 GMT August 11, 2006

Tomorrow: How The Americans Tried To Scam The Israelis And The Israelis Avoided The Trap - and Scammed The Americans.

La La La I Can't Hear You Part II: And The Band Plays On Israeli media says Tel Aviv is expected to accept a UN resolution - debate to begin tonight US Eastern time with a vote scheduled for 0600 GMT Saturday - that will authorize a Section 6 expansion of UNIFIL by 15,000. The matter will be put to the cabinet on Sunday, giving the IDF another 2-3 days of all out operations.
Though nowhere does it say this, our information is more limited operations will continue till the expanded UNIFIL is deployed - minimum 30 days. In this time Israel hopes to destroy Hezbollah in the buffer zone, which is probably to be defined as the Litani River.
So Israel Is Feeling Pretty Chuffed: We Fooled Those Bleeding Hearts because we will accept the ceasefire, but still get the time we need to bash Hezb. The diplomatic pressure will be off but we'll have a free hand. And we got the international community to save our bupsies: they'll occupy the buffer zone and control Hezb. We are so darned clever! We win everything!
Problemo, Dudes Orbat needs to keep this simple because the strategy devised by the giant minds in Tel Aviv is so brilliant we are blinded.
(a) Not a word about Hezb being disarmed - please forget we said no ceasefire unless Hezb is neutralized. (b) The deployment is a Section 6 - peacekeeping - and not a Section 7 - peacemaking. Please forget how we jeered at UNIFIL and said nothing less than Section 7 or equivalent would lead us to ceasefire. (c) Not a word about the two prisoners. Please forget we said they had to be returned unconditionally or else there would be no ceasefire.
In The Real World, This Means Big Time Defeat - Hezb is not going to be cleaned out in 30 days. When its taking 30 days to clear border villages each of which is under attack by a brigade plus SF, more troops per target is not going to solve anything. In fact, a larger mass of undertrained, underequipped, overaged reservists stumbling around will be more fodder for Hezb. It doesn't matter if Israel advances to the Litani - which it can do in less than 6 hours - because the tunnels and the bunkers will still be intact and Hezb will still keep popping up to go bang bang, you're dead.
News for the brilliant people in Israel - we are avoiding saying IDF, because we are told the IDF is realistically quite aware of this: Hezb has not deployed more than a very minor fraction of its strength south of the Litani. Hezb's long-term strategy has been predicated on expecting Israel to advance on the Litani and beyond, their main defense line lies north of the river.
So, folks, if the pressure on Hezb gets too much, they will simple hide their weapons, become one with the forlorn refugees masses, and build up for the next time around.
Meanwhile, Those 15,000 UN Troops will have a short stay in the super-sized UNIFIL. Hezb will attack those contingents it doesn't like: it's going to be very warm for the French and the Italians in particular. It will probably leave contingents like Ghana and India alone - if these two countries stay, and the Government of India will really be cuckoo if it decides to stay. What it does with the Turks and the Ozzies and such we can't say. But for contingents like the Pakistani, Hezb could be reserving a special welcome second only to their welcome for the French. The Pakistanis are Sunnis, and not too shy about letting you know that.
But The Band Will Play On, La La La

0230 GMT, August 11, 2006

UK Arrests 24 In Plot To Bomb 10 Airliners Few details have been released at this time. The Pakistan Government says it helped with the investigation, so we may assume several of the 24, all UK nationals, are of Pakistani origin. The plot was broken by a spy. It was within "days" of being activated.
Because this is a done deal type of story, we won't be giving it much coverage and in any case readers will get the story again and again from every media source.
Israel-France-US: The Fantasy Rolls On and a UN resolution is expected today. That will authorize an expansion of UNIFIL and the US/France will graciously give the Lebanese Army permission to deploy to the south. And you thought the colonial era was over.
Of course, no one is even talking any more about disarming Hezbollah. The ones who are talking about it - like the Israeli leadership - are using their words solely as cover to sell out their country and in the meantime beating up the Lebanese some more to show how tough they are.
Meanwhile, the rocket barrage continues, 160 yesterday. We doubt people in Israel have given much thought to understanding that when and if the fighting stops, Hezb/Iran will also be doing a "battle lessons learned" and will then build up based on what has been learned. So a whole bunch of new threats to Israel will emerge.
But not to worry: the average Israeli seems to have rocks in his head when it comes to Lebanon/Hezbollah and is still wandering around announcing that if we just put more pressure on Lebanon they will understand they will have to get rid of Hezbollah. The IDF's failures are not being seen as military failures: its because we didn't go for an all-out offensive from the start that we've been having these problems. Its the fault of the politicians and so on and so forth. In this kind of atmosphere its not likely any serious thinking is being done on Hezb Version 3.
We again reiterate that we have no clue as to how IDF should have fought Hezb. But kindly remember its not an area of specialization for us, nor is it our job to figure these things out. Like just about everyone else we assumed the "invincible" Israelis would roll over Hezb in a matter of days. All we know is the invincible IDF has been beaten in the first 30 days of the war, and we aren't particularly interested in the excuses. War is not a sports event, and it is stupid in the extreme to say "we'd have won had we not done such and such". For example, for many decades after 1945, the Germans would go around saying "we weren't defeated by the Americans in the west, we were defeated by their sheer material numbers." Babaloos, in war no one is interested how you were defeated. Only one thing counts: the outcome. The outcome after 30 days in Lebanon is pathetically bad. That's all we can see, let the Israelis debate how they actually won till the cows come home and die of old age. They are not going to impress us. More importantly, they will not impress the Arabs and Iranians. Right now there will be more volunteers for Hezb than Hezb can use in a hundred years.
Washington Post On Hezbollah Readers know we are not fond of the WashPo: it is a hack newspaper. At the same time, when it does a good job of giving the news and refrains from mixing the news with editorial comment, we have to give it credit. And WashPo has actually been doing a lot of talking not just to Israelis, but to Lebanese, and in terms of background, is actually producing content far superior to that produced by the Israeli media.
On Hezbollah, the following is a summary of what we learned from a long article yesterday. Hezb was still running trucks - in broad daylight - despite the extreme danger from Israeli airpower. IsAF has even bombed sand bars across the Litani that could be used as make-shift crossing points; not to worry is Hezb's attitude, they are manhandling trucks across the river. We don't want you to think like, there are convoys crossing. Its a truck at a time. But it shows these Hezb types don't give up easily.
Next, most Lebanese have no clue as to who are the military Hezb and auxiliaries in their midst. This is not the Lebanese being cute, apparently Hezb has managed to keep its military wing pretty much under cover, which is why no one seems to have a good grip on the manpower and where it is deployed.
Most Lebanese in this war are seeing Hezb from one angle alone: when there is no food because the Israelis wont let it get through, when there is no medicine because the Israelis wont let it get through, etc etc., its the Hezb lot that take the risks to get the needed items for the people. This is exactly what they were doing in peace and during the Israeli occupation 1982-2000.

Israel Suspends Offensive To Give Peace Talks A Chance - Report from Reuters quoting Israeli Maariv. This is the clearest indication so far Israel is grasping at straws and doing everything to avoid biting the bullet. While we cannot blame Israel because all outcomes are bad, moves like this just make a bad situation even worse.

0230 GMT August 10, 2006

15 Israeli Soldiers KIA, 37 WIA Wednesday and this is not because of the invasion that is starting to roll, this is Hezb slamming IDF armor in two border villages where fighting has been going on.
It may not be inappropriate to mention the US Marines for decades have trained for asymmetrical warfare against armor. The assumption was in Europe they would face a great deal of it and have to fight with few tanks of their own. What Hezb is showing us is asymmetrical anti-armor warfare taken to a new extreme because Hezb has no tanks at all, no artillery, zero air cover, and so on. This is pure guerilla action against armor. So far the results have not been pretty.
While it is true that most of the casualties - at least 11 of the KIA - were taken by reservists, seven of the dead are from an "elite" reserve unit. This is an engineer unit that is part of the Paratroop Brigade. Debka says 9 were killed from this unit. 4 of the KIA are from a single Merkava that was hit. One is a friendly fire casualty. Now Israel is sending tens of thousands of ordinary reservists, most with very little make-up training, across the border. Israel could be lucky and not lose many men. It could also be unlucky and suffer heavy losses. Its worth recalling that the US is putting its reserve brigades through six months of high-intensity training in the US and Kuwait before committing them to CI duty in Iraq.
Jerusalem Post says there have been many friendly fire incidents so far. These are always sad, but absolutely unavoidable. Battle=Chaos, and when you have citizen soldiers running around it gets worse.
The most sober analysis of the situation we have seen so far in the Israeli media can be found at http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1154525841937&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull Though naturally it is toned down because of the gravity of the national crisis, the analysis is tough-minded.
Israeli Orbat is updated, we have identifications for 11 brigades, these are not part of the new invasion force.
Map Of South Lebanon In one of our greater incidents of stupidity - thanks to lack of time to focus on the events - it did not occur to us we could have long ago have reproduced the UNIFIL map which clearly gives most of the villages being fought over.
We sentence ourselves to 10 lashes with a limp noodle.
If you want to keep track of where the fighting is taking place, look at the daily UNIFIL reports at http://www.un.org/Depts/dpko/missions/unifil/unifilpress.htm UNIFIL cannot give tactical information such as orbats to the public because this would violate the terms of its deployment; nonetheless, the reports can be useful.

2130 GMT August 9, 2006

Expansion Of War Cleared 40,000 troops including reservists are to advance to the Litani River and beyond in a 4-6 week offensive that according to some IDF sources, will reduce the daily toll of rockets from 150-200 to 30-50. We are glad IDF is being realistic about the manpower, rockets and the time frame.
The question is, what then? Best to quote from Jerusalem Post "But while some senior defense officials said Tuesday that the occupation of land up to the Litani was necessary to stop the rockets, deep down they admitted to be praying for some sort of diplomatic initiative that would stall and save them from the massive ground invasion." http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1154525833916&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
Sorry about that, IDF, but no one is coming to save you from either the invasion or afterwards. You're on your own now. Its going to be Lebanon II, back to the future and all that. Personally we see no reason why Israel cannot take 3-600 dead a year to keep the rocket launchers off its back - sort of - but of course it is not for us to make calculations what Israel can accept or not.
Hezbollah Has Already Told Lebanon Government Not To Accept International Force thus putting this lame idea that had no takers out of its misery. Hezbollah wants the Lebanese Army to hold the security zone plus a reinforced UNIFIL. Well, UNIFIL cannot fight anyone - the UN comes in on peacekeeping, very rarely on peacemaking; there will be no peace to keep. as for the Lebanese Army and the security zone, readers can draw their own conclusions given that 40% or more of the Lebanese Army is Shia.
160 Rockets Fired Wednesday including 8 of the longer range ones, no real damage or casualties. The barrage is, of course, driving Northern Israelis around the bend, they are not used to being under attack in this fashion.
Meanwhile, the Israeli KIA toll for Tuesday is 5; for Wednesday Arab media is claiming 11 Israelis killed, there is no word yet from the IDF.

1230 GMT August 9, 2006

No Word Yet On Expansion Of Lebanon Offensive Authorization was expected today. Nonetheless, keep in mind that the government has essentially approved all of the military's requests. The fiasco so far is because of the military and not because of limitations imposed by the civilians.
CNN Reports "Countless" Tanks Heading For Lebanon Border This report proves only that CNN cannot count. A good place to start training of CNN reporters in this respect is to have them count freight train cars as trains go by and count automobiles etc. at traffic intersections as lights change.
The Military Issue is not can Israel reach the Litani River. Obviously it can, if it wants to pay the price. But if the going gets rough for Hezb, it will withdraw to fight another day, just as any guerilla group will. Hezb will emerge intact.
Meantime, its the Israeli endgame that will be in a mess. Israel will have to occupy the security zone itself - back to a failed policy 1982-2000, or an international force will have to do the job. The Israeli-American fantasy is that an international force will take over. Such a force will remain only till such day as Hezb starts terror attacks against the force: if neither Israelis nor Americans are willing to die for Israel, isn't it a bit odd to think that Turks and Italians and Pakistanis and Malaysians are going to be willing to die for Israel?
Israeli Casualties Things here are getting confused because of the way the Israeli media reports killed in action figures. Normally KIA's are announced the day after, then the media keeps repeating the figures, and then again when the funerals take place, and then even after that.
As far as we can tell, Israel is saying nothing about Maroun Al Ras, though two more soldiers may have been killed at Bint Jbail - but please don't rely on what we are saying because we are not taking notes and cross-tabulating the reports.

0230 GMT August 9, 2006

La La La I Can't Hear You: US Administration On Iraq So the other day Iraqi forces with US advisors raided Sadr City, home of the criminal Al-Sadr and his murderous militia. Object was to arrest a bunch of people involved in the massacres of Sunnis.
You'd think this was a good thing to do, seeing as Iraq is in a state of civil war, that the armed militias are fueling it, and that Al-Sadr is the biggest threat to Iraqi stability. After all, the Iraqi PM has said militias must be disarmed.
So after the raid the Iraqi PM is all over the place with abject apologies to Al-Sadr's gang: excessive force was used, this will never happen again, bow, scrape, kiss Al-Sadr's fat behind which grows larger every day since all he does is sit and give orders to kill more people.
Now just think for a moment, folks. The administration has just reinforced Baghdad with another 3700 US troops to help quell sectarian violence. I have no one that I care for in any way in Iraq. But its likely some of our readers do have friends and relatives there. So this is what American troops are doing: keeping in power a worthless piece of garbage who's soul is sold to Al-Sadr, who gives him ~16 parliamentary votes in return for being allowed to murder and maim at will.
That's your kith and kin whose blood is being shed in Iraq because we have an administration that has run out ideas and pretends we are winning. Okay, so lets say we are - though it does seem every time US forces leave an area it quickly reverts to anarchy, and a lot of people won't call that winning. So we are "winning" for people like al-Sadr the sadistic butcher. There now, don't you feel so much better?
In case you were wondering why the security crackdown in Baghdad, with 70,000 Iraqi and US troops deployed, has done nothing to stem the violence: refer to para 3 above. The prime minister of Iraq has no interest in stemming the violence as long as its Shias killing Sunnis. He is part and parcel of the problem.
Lebanon Oil Slick Now Covers 120-km of Lebanese Coast The slick began when IsAF bombed a Lebanese power station and stored oil began running into the Mediterranean.
Hezbollah Claims 16 Israeli Soldiers Killed and 10 Tanks Hit in Maroun Al Ras. This is another village - like Bint Jbail - that the Israelis were supposed to have secured. The story comes from Jang of Pakistan quoting an unnamed Arab TV station. We didn't see the story in a search of Al Jazeera; as for Al Arabiya, the link to the English version gives only a blurb advertising the station. Our internet connect kept timing out when we tried to access Al Manar, Hezb's TV station. Nothing on Jerusalem Post. Haaretz, and Debka.
Zimbabwe Drops 3 Zeros From Its Currency as inflation keeps mounting. So now the US dollar is worth only 250 Zim dollars, instead of 250,000.
Sao Paulo Criminal Gangs Strike Again but this time only 4 criminals have been killed though many buildings have been bombed and buses set on fire. Earlier this year there were two series of attacks on police orchestrated by the gang First Command of the Capital - whose leadership is in jail and objected to a tightening of jail rules. 120 people died, mainly criminals: initially the police took heavy casualties but when they began executing captured criminals on the spot the First Command called it quits.

1730 GMT August 8, 2006

Israeli Media Expecting Major Expansion Of War including, we think, an attack on Tyre. For a while we thought the Israelis had seen sense, but the killing of 12 reservists by a rocket 3 days ago appears to have sent the IDF around the bend.
The OK for the expansion is expected to come tomorrow and will involve, besides the occupation of Tyre, the advance to the Litani River that has been off-on-off for the past month. Good luck, IDF, especially with Tyre where you will be fighting in an urban area.
Hezbollah Has Taken 250 KIA says a Lebanese source with access to Lebanese Army intelligence, says Washington Post. The figure includes messengers and drivers indicating what we have been suspecting. The loss to the fighting cadre is, in our opinion, about 150 if the above figure is accurate.
with Israel claiming over 400 Hezb killed - and they will count anyone killed who has a gun or a gun next to him, and then that figure will be exaggerated as is usual for any body count.
Israelis Frustrated By Refusal Of Politicial Leadership To Authorize Full Force This is apparent from a detailed reading of the Israeli press, blogs, and foreign media interviews with Israelis.
The feeling is completely understandable, and is completely wrong. Americans felt the same way during much of the Vietnam War. The reality is, however, Israel is doing just about everything it already can in terms of firepower. Hezb in the south has perhaps 1000+fighters and perhaps 2-3 times as many auxiliaries. They have no AFVs, artillery and so on. They are scattered all over the place in cells of - as nearly as we can tell - 3-4 fighters. aside from being located in built-up areas, they are living in what is emerging as a huge, multi-faceted series of tunnels and bunkers. These tunnels/bunkers become apparent only when a Hezb team pops up and gets off an ATGM or two. So you can bomb and shell all you like, you aren't going to get them.
In built up areas, as is known only too well from the bitter experience of the world's armies since firepower became cheap - World War I - the more firing, the greater the ruin, and the happier the defender.
Among the many problems Israel has is lacks the resources for prolonged war. Its regular forces are small and cannot afford to take serious casualties. Its reservists simply lack the training and skills for the kind of war taking place.
Our Assessment Of IDF's Land Performance In our assessment, given the way the Israeli Army fights and given that the Hezb lot appear to be superbly trained, equipped, and conditioned for asymmetrical warfare, the IDF is doing as well as possible on the ground.
The big problem for the IDF is its overwhelming reliance on mechanized forces: not only are they of marginal utility in this situation, Hezb has proved expert at using its near unlimited stock of ATGMs. The Merkeva was supposed to be invulnerable, and we are not quite sure how the IDF got the idea that it is. Hezb is using 3rd generation ATGMs, and apparently even some 4th generation ones, and Merkevas are getting bashed up in spades.
The only thing saving the IDF's mechanized forces is (a) they are doing their in-and-out thing and not holding ground - which in turn means Hezb is not being eliminated from the battlefield even after 4 weeks of heavy combat, and (b) Hezb is operating to minimize its own losses and doing its own version of the in-and-out. In this case its the pop-up-and-down. If they get a good shot, Hezb teams take it, then they disappear, sometimes for days.
The IDF can remedy its shortcomings, if it wishes, for the next war. It's too late to do anything for this war. Years of "fighting" the Palestinians and a doctrinal imperative for short, decisive wars have created the present situation. Its the rare army that is not surprised when it actually hits the battle line, IDF got the shock of its life in 1973, and as is the case with any army, was perfectly prepared for a replay of 1973. This is all quite normal and nothing to weep and wail about.
Of course, to learn from the past you have to be humble and want to learn. The Israelis have confused blind arrogance as meaning élan and confidence. Hopefully it will be back to the books for the IDF. It can ill-afford another Lebanon 2006, the psychological damage from this affair is already proving bad enough.
150 Rockets Fired It isn't 180, and it isn't 200, but before we say Israel is starting to get a hold on the problem, our news is several hours behind.
And look how quickly people get used to bad things: before this war began, the notion that anyone could launch even 100 rockets at Israel and live to repeat the performance the next day would have been inconceivable.
First Sign Of SAM Teams A great mystery to us has been the lack of Hezb SAM teams. They have upwards of 3000 ATGMs, where are the SAMs?
It appears IDF has captured/killed at least 1, and possibly 2 SAM teams.
3 Israeli Soldiers Killed Tuesday One feels bad when one looks at the photographs of the Israeli children that are being killed - we refer to the IDF soldiers, who seem to be 18-22 for the main part. Then we remind ourselves that it was Israel's choice to do things the way it has since its 2 soldiers were kidnapped, and for every Israeli killed there are 10 dead in Lebanon.
Israeli Defense Minister Needs To Shut Up We apologize for our rudeness, and we realize this gentleman wants to replace the current Prime Minister. He seems, however, to be a specialist in Shooting-Off-Mouth Syndrome, i.e., he is a major sufferer from this disease. This is not the time, however, to say anything inflammatory, and he seems unable to stop himself. It is a sign of weakness on the current PM's part that he has not gagged his defense minister.
On the other hand, we've never claimed to understand Israeli domestic politics.
The latest this fine figure of a fighting man - fighting as in commanding a desk - has uttered is that Israel will not ceasefire till the two kidnapped soldiers are returned. He is under the impression he is winning the war against Hezbollah and they will have to accept terms.
Someone please tell Brighteyes and Loose Mouth that its the people of Lebanon who are suffering, Hezb is doing just fine, sorry about that.
If he wants his boys back before ceasing fire, we have news for the people of Israel: prepare for a 50-year war and pray Hezb does not capture other IDF men during this fighting.

0230 GMT August 8, 2006

Israel: Be Careful What You Wish For You wanted the Lebanese Army to do something about Hezbollah. Well, hooray, 15,000 Lebanese troops are to deploy to the border. Only after you ceasefire and withdraw, of course.
So: Israel, care to guess what percentage of the troops will be Shia? How many will desert to Hezb? To what degree will Lebanese Army supplies be diverted to Hezb? Endless complications.
180 Rockets Fired At Israel Israeli commentators are all over the place explaining how hard it is to stop the short-range rockets. Well, folks, shouldn't all you giant military geniuses have figured that out before you went to war?
Correction On The Drone It is not confirmed if it was carry explosives or was on a recon mission. It was not shot down over Tyre: it was flying over Israel. Of course, Tyre is just across the border so that hardly matters.
Tyre Raid Commandos Correct to 30-40 from figure of 40. No word on what happened.

2130 GMT August 7, 2006

Bint Jbail Is Still Not Under Israeli Control after more than 3 weeks fighting. Two paratroopers were killed there, apparently yesterday.
Meanwhile, if we are to believe Israeli figures, 20-40 Hezb are being killed every day. we go back to a question we have repeatedly asked: is Hezb's strength even more than the 3000 we estimate? Israel first estimated 1000, then 2000, we haven't seen an upward revision? either the strength is much more, or Israel is killing some Hezb fighters and mostly auxiliaries who in any case are expendable.
Israel Orders Suspension Of All Traffic In South Lebanon accompanied by a pro-forma, blatantly stupid and meaningless statement that exceptions will be made for humanitarian aid. Israel is doing everything possible to obstruct the aid. The new order means that if residents now want to flee, they will have to walk or use pack animals. Nice going, IDF, brilliant move.
The Suspension Means Hezb Is Getting Resupplied Otherwise why such a draconian measure more suited to total war than what Israel claims is a precise, carefully targeted military campaign?
If Hezb is getting resupplied despite non-stop Israeli bombing for 27 days, then we're going to suggest - again - the obvious: this war is lost. Stopping resupply even in the small area of southern Lebanon is impossible from the air. Air interdiction should talk in terms of percentage supplies stopped; this can be tactically very significant - such as the Normandy and Italian campaigns which aimed not so much to stop German supplies, but to restrict German movement of troops. Hezb has no fleets of armor and no masses of artillery to supply. It does not need the hundreds, even thousands of tons, a modern division needs each day to stay in combat. A mule can carry 100-kilos of supplies. When you are talking light weapons and ATGMs, that is a lot.
Israel Downs Explosive Laden Drone Launched From Tyre Phew! At last the Israelis have been proved right in their intelligence; they had said long ago that such drones were available to Hezb - that was the reason when the Israeli Saar missile corvette was hit Israel first said a drone was used.
40 Commandos Land at Tyre This would be, we estimate, at least 14-15 hours ago US Eastern time. There is a report they were engaged in "fierce" fighting but the Israeli press says nothing more.
From Bad To Worse Frustrated by its inability to stop the rockets or to finish off Hezbollah, Israel now threatens to start striking Lebanese government symbols of authority and Lebanese infrastructure even if it is not being used by Hezbollah. One Israeli officer says Lebanon "will go dark for a few years".
We are at a loss to understand the political or military logic of doing the above, unless they are simply threats. if they are simply threats, we don't understand against who they are being made, as Lebanon cannot control Hezbollah.
We hesitate to say Israel is on the verge of committing crimes against humanity. But we'd suggest Israel think very, very carefully before destroying Lebanon further in a wild, uncontrolled frenzy because things haven't worked out as Israel - and Orbat.com - had hoped.

0230 GMT August 7, 2006

Ms. Sheehan, Antiwar Protester, Returns To Crawford TX in time for President Bush's 10-day working vacation. This time she and her supporters have a legal spot of land on which to demonstrate. Ms. Sheehan coyly announced that she (her supporters?) brought a 5 acre plot near the President's ranch through an intermediary, as no local would have sold if they had known she was the purchaser. She also said the locals should learn to relax a little and get along with the demonstrators.
Ms. Sheehan is slightly confused as to why the locals have not been relaxed. They don't back her cause, and that is their right, but they accept she has a right to say what she wants. What they object to is the enormous circus that accompanies a Cindy Sheehan happening, and they are fed up of people trespassing on their land, blocking access and roads by their presence, the loss of privacy, the noise, trash and so on. That they do have a right to object to, and asking them to relax a little is not likely to improve their mood.
Israeli Vision For Lebanon Buffer Zone as related to BBC: (a) Israel will stop fighting once Hezbollah installations in the buffer zone have been eliminated. (b) Israel will withdraw and monitor the zone from its side of the border. (c) Israel will have the right to make air strikes and occasional ground incursions.
This is fantastic stuff - in the sense of fantasy. The UN is supposed to provide this? We warned that this is Israel's plan: it will blame the UN when the UN fails to do Israel's bidding, and it will attack UN positions at will.
No one needs this aggravation, and if Israel's government thinks it will get a UN force under these conditions, we know a really good psychiatrist who can help the Israeli government to become functional again.
Hezbollah Mortar Shell Wounds 3 Chinese Observers
Letter To The Editor On Hezbollah's 2 Israel Army Prisoners Editor: Name has been withheld by request and the letter has been heavily edited to conform to our rules.
You are very concerned about two soldiers captured by Hezbollah and justify the crushing war against civilians unleashed by the Israelis and the Americans. Have you ever said a word about the 10,000 Palestine and Arab prisoners held by Israel for years, without trial in most cases? Have you spoken against the widespread use of torture against these prisoners by the Israelis and the inhuman conditions under which they are held?
Editor replies The letter writer is correct, we have not spoken on the subject, but we have spoken about the racism the Israelis display against their Arab neighbors and we have spoken out against Israel's attacks on Lebanon's infrastructure and civilians. Primarily this is a blog on the terror war written from a conservative American perspective. The treatment of prisoners by nations other than the US has not concerned us because (a) there is just so much we can write about, and (b) it is an indirect issue - for us - in the matter of Arab-Israeli relations.
We encourage anyone to write to us or for us on subjects as may concern them; our lament is that all too few people do so. Our readers hold their views strongly. This does not mean that they, or we, have closed minds and will not listen to anything others have to say.
I am aware you think that Orbat.com is completely biased against the Arabs. In our defense, we have repeatedly noted that Israel should not have been created in the manner it was. We have repeatedly spoken against Israel's treatment of Arabs.
At the same time, the existence of Israel is a fact and is recognized not just by the world at large, but also by the Arabs. You will say the Arab governments who recognize Israel are unrepresentative and traitors to their people. This may be, but how does it help anyone to go over this again and again?
Yes, we are partial to Israel because it is a true democracy and an American ally. If your country was tomorrow to become a democracy and respect the rights of individuals, particularly of women, and if it became an American ally, we would be just as partial to your country as to Israel. It is really not more complicated than that for us.

2200 GMT August 6, 2006

How To Lose While Declaring Victory: The US Can Learn From Israel

"IDF Ditches Plans To Reach Litani River" says the Jerusalem Post. On the one hand, we are very tempted to say: "okay you Number 1 messups who thought you were so great at war, you are finally getting your just desserts for all the boasting you've done in the past. Learn some humility."
On the other hand, we have to applaud the Israeli decision to declare victory as a way of getting themselves out of the gosh-awful mess they walked into. This is the course we suggested some days ago, and it takes an enormous amount of courage not to reinforce defeat.
This Does Not Mean The War Is Ending Israel will continue bombing Lebanon for as long as it thinks it can get away with it. The wonderful thing about bombing is that it gives everyone a warm, satisfied feeling that something painful is being done to the enemy. Its very macho to bomb. That nothing is being achieved except the collective punishment of the Lebanese people , whose crime is their country was too weak to stop Hezbollah, is immaterial at this point. As for world opinion, we've said before and repeat: the Israeli calculation is that Israel can tell the world where to put its outrage, and that no price will have to be paid - in the short run anyway.
And Israel will continue small scale operations in its Lebanon security zone until a ceasefire is rung down. The number of troops mobilized is absurdly small, it doesn't cost Israel that much money, the casualties so far are minor - though 1, 2, 3 soldiers killed a day add up if the ground war is to continue, and bar the bombing of Lebanon, very few people around the world are prepared to condemn Israel for operating just north of the Lebanon border.
What It Does Mean Is Israel Has Given Up Its Ambitious Plan To Destroy Hezbollah When things are not working, it is best to pause, regroup, and rethink. Israel needs to face up to what went wrong, and next time around follow tactics/strategy that works.
Of Course, Ours Is The Optimistic View because we are on Israel's side on the matter of destroying Hezbollah. Our problems have been with the way the Israelis have been hammering Lebanon, creating every larger pools of hatred for the US.
The Pessimistic View Says This War Marks The Beginning Of The End For Israel We do not subscribe to thesis, but are fully aware we may be speaking more from the heart than the head.
This dark view says that Israel has clearly been defeated despite a savage bombing campaign. It notes Israel was near defeated in 1973 and saved only by the US. Yes, yes, we know how that was a great Israeli victory and all that, but in fact when Israel made its counteroffensive in the Canal zone it was stalled on the road to Damascus and it was at the end of its capabilities. No dishonor here, no one expected tiny Israel to get into a slugfest lasting months with its much larger Arab enemies. The Israelis painted the 1973 War as a victory and were able to convince many even in the Arab world to agree with them.
In Lebanon 2006, however, it is apparent to every Arab that Israel has lost. A word of advice to our pro-Israeli readers: kindly do not waste your time writing to us telling us how Israel is winning and will win. Its not what Orbat.com thinks is important, its what the Arab world thinks is important. And the Arab world sees, for the first time, that a few thousand highly motivated guerillas have stood up to the mighty Israeli war machine, and the war machine blinked. If you must write, do so to the Arab media, and of course we will be happy to duplicate your letters here.
Having understood they cannot destroy Israel in a conventional fight - not because Israel is invincible but because the US is invincible - the Arabs for 30 years have renounced war. But now they see there is another way to hit Israel, not with armies of hundreds of thousands and budgets of billions, but with small budgets and small numbers of dedicated men.
In this view, Hezb will gain new recruits, new organizations will be created, and they will make Israel die the death of a thousand cuts. Time will tell if the optimists or the pessimists are right. And oddly, everything depends on Israel - more on this another time.

Hezb Rockets Kill 12 Israeli Reservists In a macabre way, the Israelis have got what they wished for. They have been complaining Hezb rockets are aimed at civilians whereas their strikes have precision targeted military targets and the large number of Lebanese casualties are regrettable collateral damage.
So today Hezb managed to kill 12 reservists at a gathering station as they reported for mobilization. we are not going to offer Israel false sympathy. This is war, Israel is killing Lebanese with gusto, and if even half the claims for Hezb casualties are true, it is killing Hezb fighters with gusto. Israel must expect to suffer casualties in return. That's the name of the game.
The Israelis are censoring the news, as is the case with all war-related news.
The Rockets Continue On Day 26 of the war, 180 rockets fired, which also killed three civilians and wounded 100 others in Haifa. Yesterday, around the same number were fired. Debka.com says 250 rockets were fired and the injured are near 200.
Friendly suggestion to IDF: Orbat.com understands why you cannot stop the rockets. We wait with bated breath every day hoping that this will be the day the number of rockets drops sharply. Day 26, and it hasn't happened. Time for you to share with the Israeli people why you cannot do the job. Better the people of Israel hear it from you than from us.
Welcome To The IDF Summer Camp if readers think we are jeering at the IDF, they are absolutely right. Israel has already started sending the first batches of reservists on leave.
We don't care what the Israeli system is and we don't care what the political compulsions are. This is no way to fight a war. The IDF needs to realize that its ground troops are not fighter pilots: you go out on your mission, come back to the comfort of your base - air conditioning, showers, hot food, a comfortable bed, relative safety. Its ground troops are - well, ground troops. Its their job to stay at the front. If they have free time, they need to be training. In this global war on terror, we don't see why American troops are pushed with unrelenting ferocity for months at a time without a break and Israeli troops already have leave, with the war not even a month old.
Lamest Excuse Heard An Israeli officer explaining why Israeli armor returns ASAP from each mission in Lebanon. Seems the Israelis don't want their tanks sitting around making targets for Hezb. We want the Israelis to take a deep breath and calmly assess the enormous implications of what they are saying.

0400 GMT August August 6, 2006

The Ship Of Fools: Captained By The United States, Sailed By the French, And With The Israelis As Non-Paying Passengers Just Waiting To Start The Kvetching About Lack Of Service

The S.S. Fools Unlimited Is Preparing To Think About Making A Voyage The UN, under the "guidance" of the US and France, has agreed to urgently talk about a ceasefire in Lebanon. One estimate is that 15 days are needed before a toothless resolution is passed. A ceasefire will be declared. An expanded UNIFIL will be the buffer force. Israel will withdraw. All prisoners will be exchanged. The Lebanese Army will disarm Hezb, if neccessary we'll built up the Lebanese Army to do the zone and we'll entice Hezb by offering them to become part of the Lebanese Army, possibly in the reserves.
The Israelis have climbed aboard the S.S. Fools Unlimited. Their motto will be: "I am Israeli, hear me kvetch - er, sorry, we meant roar". After the song and dance about nothing less than a robust force will do, and over our dead body will we accept UNIFIL as the force, and we will not stop till we get our two boys back, and we will crush Hezb, and so on and so forth, the Israelis have agreed to - you guessed it - a ceasefire supervised by UNIFIL.
There are some supporters of Israel who metaphorically are behaving like some moron might behave when he is present at the unfolding of Washington's famous Giant Stink Flower, with a smell so sweet it makes rotting maggot infested bodies dead two weeks smell like Chanel Number 5 by comparison. This hypothetical moron - hypothetical because really there is no one that stupid in the whole world - is standing at the flower as it opens. As he falls to his knees, unable to breathe because of the nauseating stink, before he keels over dead himself, is heard to gasp: "At...least...its...a... flower..."
These supporters are saying, gosh, "the Israelis are so cunningly clever: they are buying time by agreeing to UNIFIL as the buffer force, and they can finish the job before the force gets going."
Seems a strange way to buy time: one minute you are bellowing defiance, setting as your minimum terms so high there is no prospect of anyone agreeing; the next minute you are saying: "yes, yes, I accept all the terms I swore I would never accept".
It sounds awfully like someone who is cornered in a fight he never expected, grasping at the first straw thrown to him that promises some hope of getting him out of the fight
News for the Israelis: if its UNIFIL you accept, they can start supervising the ceasefire right now, there are observers and two infantry battalions in place.
Meanwhile, No One Bothered To Ask The Lebanese What They Think Hey, its only their country. If Hezb can walk all over them from one side, and the Israelis can walk over them from the other, why, we, the great US and France can also walk over them.
Problem: Lebanon is a sovereign nation. And Lebanon is saying it agrees to nothing until Israel withdraws. In other words, an acknowledgement by Israel that it has been defeated. Desperate the Israelis may be, they are not THAT desperate.
Problem: Lebanon earlier had no capability to disarm Hezb: any such attempt would have split the army and its back to civil war. Had the Israelis not targeted Lebanon's infrastructure and civilians, this thought was theoretically feasible - the non Shia Lebanese were plenty mad at Hezb at provoking war. As things stand now, there is no chance at all the Lebanese Army will disarm Hezbollah - it will not be able to do it no matter how much you build it up because 40% of the army has to be Shia - but more important the people of Lebanon no longer blame Hezb, they see Hezb as their savior and Israel as the evil aggressor. They do NOT want to disarm Hezb, even if they could.
And Of Course No One Has Bothered To Ask Hezb What They Think Either Which is odd, if you think about it. No one asked Saddam what he thought about things at the end of Gulf 2, and that was reasonable, because Saddam had just gotten his shirt, pants, underwear, socks, and makeup beaten off him. But if Hezb is defeated to the point it can be ignored in the formulation of any plan for Lebanon, someone forgot to tell Hezb about it.
Oooooh: Conundrum alert! No one wants to talk to Hezb because Hezb is evil. But Hezb is the dealmaker and the dealbreaker in this deal. Talk to Hezb, and Hezb has won, double big time. Don't talk to Hezb, and see your pathetic little agreement go up in smoke as Hezb starts attacking UNIFIL.
And No One Is Talking Straight To The Israelis Either This is a case of the scammers being scammed, and going into it with eyes wide open. Israel scammed the world because it planned to drag the world into getting rid of Hezb. Now the biggies that count - the US and France - are scamming the Israelis: we'll get your boys back.
Problem: to get those two boys back - and the poor fellow forgotten in Gaza - Israel will have to release thousands of Arab prisoners. It may have been hundreds before the war, but now Hezb has the political upper hand, its going to be in the 4 figures. If Israel exchanges prisoners, the next thing is going to happen to Mr. Olmert, his cohorts, and the top military/intelligence officers of Israel is they are going to be tarred, feathered, made to ride facing backwards on donkeys with hernias, and run into the Mediterranean. This will be a fiasco of such dimensions - because after all, isn't an exchange what Hezb asked for to start - that there is no way in this lifetime any Israeli leader can agree to it. if they don't agree to it, they don't get their boys back end of the matter.
Incidentally, to make our position clear: Israel was right not to negotiate an exchange. Israel has made some amazingly stupid mistakes in this war and it is an unmitigated disaster for Israel. But to exchange will be to begin the long journey to Israel's defeat on all fronts. We do not believe Israel will make this fatal error. But then is someone had told us on July 15 that we'd have the situation existing today because Israel miscalculated and continued to miscalculate, we wouldn't have believed you. The Israelis are not that incompetent, we'd have said. We were wrong in spades, clubs, diamonds and hearts.
And No one Has Bothered To Talk Straight To Potential UNIFIL Contributor Nations Imagine this scene: the French commander of UNIFIL - yes, there really is a French officer in command - calls the commanders of the Indian and Ghanaian battalions and says: "I have new orders for you. You will now interpose yourself between the Israelis and Hezbollah. Hezbollah has not agreed to anything, and the Israelis will attack you at every opportunity every time they think you are not doing your job - which is every time you are not doing your job the way Israel thinks you should be doing your job."
We can't say what the Ghanaians will say, but it won't be much different from what the Indians will say: "Yes Sir, your orders are understood, Sir, and will be executed immediately, Sir. You have said our mission is over and we can go home, Sir. Thank you very much, Sir. We have plenty of fighting to do at home, thanks you much for letting us leave immediately - Sir." That is what they will say to their French commander, between themselves they will be talking about how the French commander is acting like a - CENSORED - who is - CENSORED - and he needs to - CENSORED. The censored parts have to do with the proclivities of barnyard animals.
Then there are the Malaysians, who so sweetly have offered a battalion group, the first real offer of troops to expand UNIFIL or form a new mission. Wonder what they'll say when they're told there is no agreement on an Israeli withdrawal or Hezb ceasing hostilities. We don't speak Malay, but we bet it isn't going to be pretty.
The Best Part Will Be The Israelis Having had their steaks saved by the pseudo-resolutions - can't say "bacon", that is very politically incorrect - the Israelis will be on everyone's heads all the time like the editor's late grandmother - and she wasn't even Jewish or from Brooklyn. They will posture every time things don't go their way: "We did you all a favor by agreeing to this pathetic agreement and this is the way you treat us?" PM Olmert will be able to tell his people: "See, in good faith I agreed to this agreement and now these craven cowards the UN are letting us down - what can I do about it now, we'll be seen as the aggressor etc etc etc."

So Given The Above, What The Heck Is Everyone Talking About?

That Is The Mystery Orbat.com has come up with two explanations.
1: Naughty US, France, Israel etc. etc. leaders have not been taking their prescribed medicines and are suffering a sad psychotic episode where everyone runs around madly making imaginary deals with each other.
2. Naughty US, French, Israel etc. etc. leaders think their public is as moronic as they are, and if they run around madly their public will think they are engaged in wise diplomacy and actually achieving something.
Readers are free to take their pick or add their own explanations.

0230 GMT August 5, 2006

A Political Statement By The Editor

Mosul was one of the most peaceful places in Iraq, and a real success story for the US and the Iraqi government. Then the US shifted a brigade out of Mosul for redeployment to Baghdad. Mosul has gone to all heck, and if things don't calm down, is quite ready to proceed to the beyond.
Another brilliant victory for the Rummy Rumster theory of warfare. Americans can take comfort in knowing it won't be their enemies who defeat them. It will be their own officials.
We haven't reached that stage yet, but we are this close to joining the demand for US forces to leave Iraq. Not because we are soft commie left pinko tree hugging Starbucks drinking Michael Moore adoring liberals, but because we are far to the right of this administration. Our conservative beliefs require us to say, very firmly, the US should not fight unless it aims to win - Powell Doctrine if you wish to call it that. The US did not go into Iraq to win, and it is staying simply because it has run out of ideas.
As such, this administration is, in effect, guilty of killing American soldiers to cover up for its political mistakes. As conservatives, we are forced to say this is, in our book, treason to the United States of America. It does not matter to us one little bit that this treason is being committed by officials who stand under an American flag. Standing under the flag makes you neither a patriot or even an American. A patriot is one who cares for his country, not for himself.
If it is the assessment of the administration that the stakes in Iraq are not worth committing the resources to win, we want the administration to say so and we will accept its judgment. But then it logically follows that America say to Iraq: "You're liberated, you have democracy, its been real.
What is unacceptable is this administration telling America over and over that the stakes are so high we cannot pull out and we must fight on. Who's the we, Kemo Saby? Who's doing the fighting? You?
In Pakistan we seen 60 and 70 year old grandfathers say they are going to Afghanistan to fight the Americans. These men are absolutely, 100% wrong and their cause is immoral and an affront to God, and if you don't believe in God, to humanity. They need to be killed with the greatest economy of effort. BUT: they believe in their cause enough to die for it. We have to admire them for that, wrong though they may be.
If the administration and Congress and some of the media and power elite believe we have to stay in Iraq, lets see all of them under the age of 70 volunteering for Iraq duty. Please don't worry if you are one of those people, about how you will get through the brutal training and how you will carry 60-kilos on patrol in 130-degree weather. The Orbat.com plan does not require you to do all that.
For these gentlemen - yes, we will be sexist and exempt the ladies - Orbat.com has a simple, single, operational mission. You will be outfitted with suicide belts and sent to do the needful. And please don't say suicide is against your religion: because if so, how come it isn't against your religion to send someone else to die in your place for an unwinnable war because he or she is a true patriot? And unwinnable because you didn't give the troops the resources for the mission. Shame on all of you.

The News

Iran Says It Gave Zelal Rockets To Hezbollah In a shift we regard as ominous, a senior Iraqi official confirms this Israeli allegation. Iran has so far appeared, in terms of its statements, to play a limited role in this conflict. In fact, some people were drawing comfort from the absence of long range rockets in the daily barrage, saying Iran has not given permission to Hezb to fire them.
Well, folks, start reassessing the situation, because not only is Iran blatantly admitting to giving the rockets, Hezb fired 5-6 of them yesterday.
This is not terribly subtle message from Teheran to Washington. The Iranians fall all over themselves congratulating themselves on their subtlety, but actually their diplomacy has all the subtlety of a bulldozer. Iran is saying "reign in Israel, or else."
Readers can see the problem: Iran cannot be seen as sitting by while Hezb continues under Israeli attack day in and day out. Moreover, the Iranians are telling the Lebanese: the Arabs are cowards, but we will come to help you if needed. US is now in a situation where far from Iran's influence in Lebanon being diminished, it may well increase
Israel Following Loose Rules Of Engagement In its attack on a warehouse that killed 28 Syrian fruit packers, Israel has used the word "suspected" - the warehouse was suspected to have arms inside, a truck suspected of carrying arms had pulled up.
We would advise Israel, in all sincerity, to tighten its rules of engagement. 2006 is not 1980 and the consequences for Israel could be very serious. It is not sufficient, as Israel has argued, that it is at war with the state of Lebanon and therefore any measures that add to Israeli security, however marginally, are justified. Lebanon is not at war with Israel; in fact, the Lebanese have not tried to defend themselves in the slightest.
It is stupid in the extreme for the Israelis to invoke the US attack on Afghanistan in 2001 as justification for its attack on Lebanon. In 2001 the US asked the Taliban to hand over Osama; the Taliban refused, saying they would try him and the US could present evidence. The Taliban were in complete control of the country except for the northern enclave, and they were in complete control of Osama. The Lebanese are not in control of Hezbollah, the whole world and her sister knows if Lebanon moved against Hezbollah the result would be another civil war.
No one denies Israel the tight of self defense. But it needs to stop making flippant in-your-face comments like an immature juvenile. We are not concerned about the morality of what Israel is doing. We are concerned it is starting to drag the US through the dirt of international opinion without any gain for the US. The last thing the US needs is more trouble for no gain in the Arab world.
Has Israel Or The US Given Any Thought To Iraqi Shia Reaction? Somewhere upto 100,000 supporters of the criminal Al-Sadr marched in Baghdad in support of Hezbollah. Next step: these dead enders are going to start appearing in Lebanon. We would assume Iranian reinforcements are already on the way. We are not concerned what these madmen might do to Israel - sorry to be cynical, but this is Israel's problem. We are concerned what they are going to do to US interests.
We would have no objection to stirring up the Iraqi Shia if the gains were proportionate to the risks. The US, however, has to face up to the reality Israel has bitten off much more than it can chew. This whole show is going in one direction and the slope is negative.
Civilian Casualties In Border Village Air Strikes The Lebanese have said 7 civilians have died in an air strike on a building. Sorry, Lebanon, the way things are going, 7 of your citizens' lives are not worth even a comma. More serious is the allegation that an attack on a second building has buried 50 civilians underneath.
Nonetheless, Israel says it launched no strikes in those particular villages. It is then neccessary to wait until more details emerge before making any judgements.
Sri Lanka Civil War Back On We wish we could say something positive here. The bitter truth is both the rebels and the government feel betrayed by the other side in the four year truce, and the government is particularly angry because of the easy manner in which LTTE starting resorting to force after it felt it was betrayed.
Observers are saying neither side is now going to give in until it makes gains on the battlefield, or loses on the battlefield.

Letter

From Luke Graysmith Editor's Note Mr. Graysmith's intent is to advance a proposition for debate. He is not claiming he has the definitive wisdom in his possession. He refers to our questioning Israeli tactics in South Lebanon.
Israel prefers to eliminate Hezbollah fighters as they reoccupy the same
old 'strongholds', rather than inflict more damage on new areas, with all
the propaganda liabilities that accompanies the strategy of take and hold.
This isn’t Iraq. There is no oil in Lebanon.
If Hezbollah is stupid enough to keep sending assets into the pile of
rubble, then Israel will happily kill them off. They have essentially
taken away home field advantage. No?

1630 GMT August 4, 2006

IDF Confirms 3 Soldiers Killed We are having a problem because we are seeing reports that 3 soldiers have been killed at Makabe and 3 at Ramjin, and we don't know if both villages are co-located - in which case they may refer to the same fight. Again, Hezb anti-tank missiles were responsible.
Israel Claims 400 Hezb Killed We've noted Israelis are speaking with many tounges, but if we count claims from yesterday and add the claims from today, we're approaching a total claim of 400 Hezb killed. Assuming the usual 1 seriously wounded for every man killed, this would amount to 80% casualties if we use Israel's start-of-the-war figure for 1000 Hezb fighters; 40% for its revised 2000 fighters, and 13% if you use Orbat.com's estimate of 3000 fighters.
In making your own assessment, please keep in mind that Hezb part-timers could number up to 10,000. It would seem inevitable many of the part-timers are part of the casualties. If we go by the Israeli figures alone, one has to wonder how Hezb is still fighting because as a percentage of strength 40% is catastrophic and 80% means a total wipeout - remember, we are not estimating men who have been wounded but could be back in battle within a few days.
190 Rockets Launched Friday killing 4 Israeli civilians. Civil defense attack warning issued for Tel Aviv - the Hezb chief, Nasurallah, said if Israel attacked central Beirut again he would bombard Tel Aviv. So Israel attacked central Beirut saying it was doing so because Hezb had threatened Tel Aviv. This sounds like last minute PR improvisation to us.
Split In Israeli High Command? Haaretz of Israel, a left-leaning newspaper, says the Israeli defense minister wants to order a push to the Litani River but the Prime Minister is doubtful if this is a good idea.
Israeli generals are said to want the whole nine meters, but again, please remember Israel is operating under extraordinarily tight censorship in addition to the overall feeling that everyone has to show unity in this time of crisis. Orbat.com estimates that less than 10% of the truth is being reported so you should not rely on what we say.
KIA Figures Are Probably Being Reported Accurately, But With A Time Lag In a small, cell-phone obsessed country like Israel it is unlikely any attempt to hide KIA losses would succeed and there is no evidence any such attempt is being made.

1230 GMT August 4, 2006

Israeli Air Force drops 4 bridges along the Lebanese coastal road and attacks a power plant in the Bekka Valley. Several Hezbollah dominated areas in Beirut and Tyre have been attacked, some repeatedly.
No doubt the sustained destruction of Lebanon's transport infrastructure is slowing Hezb's resupply from Syria. The question is if Israel is justified in inflicted collective punishment on half of Lebanon, a country which has been held hostage by Hezbollah. Earlier there was no question that the IsAF attacks were turning people against Hezb. Now, however, they are having the opposite effect, and the more the Lebanese people suffer, the more Hezb support grows.
And at the same time there seems to be no diminution of Hezb's capability to fire rockets at Israel: 180 were fired Thursday.
Hezb Claims 5 Israeli Soldiers Killed In Border Fighting There is no word from the Israeli side.
Israel: A Flawed Strategy Meanwhile, UN observers say Israeli is making no attempt to hold ground. We understand that Israel does not want to exactly replicate the failed 1982-2000 occupation. At the same time, it isn't a question of what Israel wants, but what is needed. The Israeli military strategy seems to have a 1-point agenda: international forces will provide security for Israel, lets focus on appearing to grab maximum territory which will become the zone for the international force, and let the force take care of the unknown number of Hezb guerillas that will still be in the zone.
The whole concept of an international force providing Israel security by fighting Hezb is an outright fantasy. The concept wasn't even central to Israeli strategy when it began its offensive: its been added only when Israel figured Hezb wasn't going to be easy to eliminate.
More and more it seems to us the Israeli leadership has realized it has failed, and is hoping only that an international force will provide the fig leaf behind which Israel can declare victory and withdraw.
We have several times warned the world is not going to fall for the rather naive Israeli plan.

0230 GMT August 4, 2006

Isarel-Lebanon There are no significant developments since our 1930 GMT update yesterday.
The Alexandroni Brigade is identified as operating in Lebanon. Do any of our readers know if this is the same as 609th Reserve Brigade?
And can someone explain why the Israeli Army has 18 and 19 year sergeants? This seems an unusual arrangement.
Jordan King Condemns US and Israel He is a very close ally of the US and a peace partner of Israel, so this is not an insignificant development. BBC reports the king as saying he is "enraged" by US/Israel and they are weakening moderates like himself. Not to worry, old boy. The US and Israeli stock in the Mideast is already so low it hardly matters what the two do.
Mr. Bush Calls For Democracy In Cuba Mr. Bush's calls would have greater credibility if he also called for democracy in China and Saudi Arabia. But one thing both American political parties agree on is $$$$$$$. China and Saudi represent mucho dinero in profits for many Americans.
By the way, Mr. President Sir, any chance of giving democracy to the District of Columbia? Oh - that's a stupid question, you say? We apologize for asking.
An Unpleasant Day For Rummy Rumster our runaway fave defense minister in the whole world. We are truly sorry he has been told by the White House to zip the lip and stay out of controversies, because when it comes to putting down the press, no one does it better than Rummy. But being silent is a small price to pay for avoiding consequences for having made one of the biggest blunders in US military history, no?
First, the Washington Post reports that military lawyers oppose the White House's plans for tribunals: the objections are way too technical, and truthfully, we are a bit surprised the military is openly criticizing a proposal of the executive branch.
Second, Rummy's chief Mideast military honcho warned Congress that Iraq could be heading for civil war. Could? What else does the US government call what's happening in Iraq?
Rummy was also thoroughly beaten on the head with a foam truncheon by Senator Hilary Clinton. First he had said he would not attend Congress's summons to testify. We aren't informed on what the deal is here, seems to us Mr. Bush is his boss and not Congress, but apparently Congress does have the authority to summon anyone it wants for any reason and give them heck of all sorts. Anyway, Rummy changed his mind and was on the receiving end of a typical Mrs. Clinton bashing: coldly and rigorously precise, no grandstanding, voice calm. and whatever Rummy had to say efficiently demolished. No matter what a person's crimes, he should not have to suffer being on the wrong side of the table from the Senator.
Letter From Paul Danish in response to our question of what Israel gains from preventing aid convoys in Lebanon:
What Israel gains is that folks who are staying in villages that are about to be attacked will go somewhere else for lunch. If I recall, cutting off supplies was one of the tactics used to get the population of Falluga to relocate before the battle. From Israel's point of view, the UN's "humanitarian" convoys are just a resupply operation for Hezbollah's human shields.
The fact that one is a civilian does not automatically make one an innocent civilian. Chances are that in addition to the old, the lame, and the scared, the remaining civilian population in South Lebanon includes complicit civilians, enabling civilians, and civilian combatants. Since the UN makes no distinction among "civilians", it's mercy missions are at least in part running supplies to Hezbollah.

0230 GMT August 3, 2006

We are facing several problems in reporting/analyzing the Israeli offensive against Lebanon. First and foremost, it is very clear the Israeli leadership has no clue as to what it is doing. For example, it was against an international force when it started the war, but now an international force has become the promised land. Then Israel said it had no intention of repeating 1982; now people are saying that until and international force arrives - and between us, our readers, and the wall, no force capable of maintaining the peace will be allowed in by Hezbollah - Israel will have to occupy Lebanon, i.e., it is going to do a repeat of 1982. First Israel said it was beating the heck out of Hezb, now it says Hezb has several thousand anti-tank missiles and it cannot stop 3-4 man anti-tank Hezb teams from popping up in previously cleared ground and causing casualties.

In addition to these problems there is the outright spin and evasion coming out of GHQ. Israel has, of course, the right to say what it wants. But given its press is being super-patriotic and permitting disagreements to come out only in the most general terms, we are limited in terms of useful information. For example, clearly Israel staged the raid at Balbeck to get its two men back: its information was the men were being held in a bunker below the hospital. Well, no surprise, they did not get the men, and that is no discredit to the IDF: we've mentioned before how difficult these operations are and how high the chance of failure. But instead of saying, okay, we didn't get the men, IDF is saying we've taught Hezb that our reach is unlimited. Please, Babaloos, explain to us how you have taught Hezb something they didn't know. Not content with just keeping quiet, an Israeli general says IDF has caught some "tasty fish". Well, your editor doesn't eat fish so he can't say what is tasty, but we don't think 5 ordinary Hezb supporters/fighters are exactly tasty by anyone's standards.

In this situation, where black has become white and white has become black, and every Israeli politician and general says something else, we see little point in doing day-by-day analysis. We cannot use our limited time to keep making the same points to refute what some other Israeli leader in fantasy-land is saying. We completely supported Israel's operation because we believed it would help the US. All we now see is a major disaster for the US. American global policy was already dead in the water because of Iraq. Now there is another huge distraction on top of a huge distraction. By its failure to win a quick, decisive victory against Hezb, Israel has badly hurt the US.

We'd like to make one thing clear: at no point are we saying that we have any clue as to what Israel should have done. We have no idea what it should have done. But we do know, from its own changes in goals, that it has not succeeded in doing what it started out to do. Knowing what we know now, we can see the obvious and understand Hezb would not be easily defeated if at all, given Israel's limited staying power. We assumed the Israelis knew what they were doing, and we were wrong.

The US should be getting out of the bad situation ASAP. There is zero chance this will happen, because US is as guilty of living in lala land as the Israelis. As evidence of the lala landness, you have only to look to Iraq, on which we have almost stopped reporting because the situation is far, far worse than we ever imagined it could get, and we don't want to depress our readers or ourselves. It is anger-making in the extreme that the moronic bunch who rule this country from Washington have put the armed forces in a situation where there is simply going to be more casualties and more casualties for nothing. The reality is that American leaders' failure to handle Hurricane Katrina was not an aberration. It was a demonstration of those leaders' sudden-found ability to muck up anything the least bit complex. Total lame cluelessness has become the hallmark of American leadership. Though this is utterly beside the point, we do NOT believe this is a Republican or Mr. Bush thing. It is a universal American leader thing,

Given all the above, your editor at least needs to back off and regain his sanity. It is the old problem of trying to understand insane people: you hang around with them long enough, you also become insane. This happened to your editor on Iraq, where he began to argue about the epicycles on the epicycles, to the total detriment of his understanding of the reality. Most of the people who read this blog are very pro-military and since the idiot mainstream media was attacking the military left and right, it was natural we would rise to defend the military. This is also besides the point, but, oddly, the media has become a lot better educated and has started to see that the military and failed American policies in Iraq are not synonymous, that the military has actually done a fantastic job within the limits imposed. Be that as it may, your editor definitely finds himself too closely involved with the Israeli and American craziness on Lebanon that is getting worse by the day.

Your editor has lost track of what he was trying to say, so lets just focus on a short news update.

1930 GMT

IDF Now Holds 11 Villages but Al Jazeera says Hezb is fighting the Israelis in 5 villages.
Add to orbat: 188th Armored Brigade, another famous unit, and 609th Brigade, a reserve unit.
3 Soldiers, 7 Civilians Die The former were killed in fighting; apparently their tank was hit by an ATGM. The civilians died in the continuing Hezb rocket barrage when close to a hundred were fired in a period of minutes.
Tyre To Be Part Of Security Zone? Reports suggests it is, as Tyre lies close to the Israel border and south of the Litani River. It is not clear if Israel will enter Tyre and fight on Hezb's ground, or if it will merely blockade it by land and sea.
Al Jazerra says 90,000 of the city's 100,000 population has fled; those that remain have nowhere to go.
Qana Confirmed Dead 28 and 13 missing, based on a recount by a Lebanon hospital. The earlier figure of ~55 was revised downward as after the Israeli attack more people managed to escape than previously known.
It is natural the Israelis would play-up the figure of 28, half the original blared around the world, but 13 missing for so long means they are dead in the rubble, so the total is 41. Plus - as will happen all over Lebanon when a ceasefire is called - more people may have been in the building.
The numbers are not important, given the great lethality of modern munitions. Mistakes happen - mistakes not in the sense of a misaimed bomb, but of targeting based on wrong information. The issue at Qana will come down to "the Israelis should have known" rockets were not being launched from the area, which is why so many women and children fled there for shelter.
Hezb Rejects Ceasefire Without Israeli Pull Out says Reuters.com, and refuses to comment on the deployment of an international force. Hezb says it will not use the public/media as the forum to debate the issue.

1230 GMT

Outline Of The Endgame Israel plans to push on the Litani River by the end of the week. It will announce the war is over, if neccessary for political purpose. It will then focus on rooting Hezbollah out of the new security zone. The security zone will be handed over to a robust European security force. Peace and love will prevail. Angels will sing, and fat ugly people will become handsome/beautiful and slim. The poor will become rich. Blog editors without a life and without women groupies will have both in excess. Seeing as your editor falls in the above categories, he eagerly awaits the breaking out of the peace.
Meanwhile, Back On Ranch Reality The US and UK both say they will not participate in the security force. Goodbye robutsness, we scarcely knew you. The Euros as not robust supporters of Israel anyway: France and Italy do have their own political reasons to want an opportunity to regain influence in Lebanon, but it is already striking them - and the other Euros - that its kind of odd the US/UK dint want to be part of the force.
Prime Minister Olmert Says 15,000 Troops Needed and they shouldn't be pensioners. Now where are we to find 15,000 such troops in Euroland, particularly when Hezb starts the killing? We used our highest power magnifying glass to look for 15,000 robust, non-pensioner troops and - believe it or not - we found them! Yes, folks, we did and they are located in - incredibly nice coincidence - Israel! No logistics issues, either. Of course there is a fly in the ointment: when Hezb starts the killing, PM Olmert is going to have to explain to his public why Israel must do its own hard and dirty work and why his scheme to have a gullible west do the work didn't pan out.
On The Ground 8 Israeli brigades are in Lebanon and some serious fighting is going on. The number of rockets fired yesterday is probably more like 230 rather than 300.

0230 GMT

Possible New Motto For the 101st Airborne Division? Washington Post reports that the division operates on the following instructions: ~~Be polite, be respectful, but have a plan to kill everyone you meet.~~
Okay, bad timing. We like the motto a lot and that's why we published it: weary American cynicism delivered with a tough punch and an ever-readiness to take the fight to the enemy and expressed in a funny way.
Problem is, the 101st Division battalion at Lake Tharar some months ago is in the news because some of its officers/men seem to have taken this motto a bit over the top. A military hearing on killing of prisoners was told by two Screaming Eagle soldiers that their orders were just like the motto: one says all military-age men were to be killed; another says no, only all military-age men who did not appear to be surrendering were to be killed.

Possible New Motto For the 101st Airborne Division? Washington Post reports that the division operates on the following instructions: Be polite, be respectful, but have a plan to kill everyone you meet.
French Fries Back On US Congress Menu says Washington Post. About time. There is nothing French about American Fries.
300 Rockets Launched Yesterday says AP. The 210 figure we gave was part of the day.
Same Old, Same Old To the limited orbat we have, add the famous 7th Armored Brigade. A reserve brigade has entered combat: we assume the Israelis have been running out of regulars. The number of troops in Lebanon is somewhere between 6 -10,000 - but remember, Israeli units keep shuttling in and out.
Lebanese Displaced Persons now estimated at 750-900,000. Total population is 4-million.
From An Article in Al-Jazerra "Last week, opinion polls carried out by US news agencies showed that 81% of Christians, 85% of Sunni Muslims and 86% Shias viewed Hezbollah as defenders of Lebanon."
Most Unimpressive Statement Of Yesterday An Israeli battalion officer who tells a newspaper he hasn't had any leave since the war began three weeks ago. All we can say, kindly, using the same tones as we use for our fourth graders, is: "My child, you have a lot to learn about what war is really about." Used to be a soldier needed 10 continuous days in combat to become effective - readers will understand that if you did not become effective you were dead, so this was a self-resolving problem. Then the soldier would peak at Day 21 and at some point definitely need a break. Modern warfare is so complex, and given the Israelis have not been keeping up on their training, it would seem three weeks of combat would be the minimum nowdays to become effective. The Israeli officer may not have had a vacation, but given the profusion of photographs in the Israeli press captioned "Israeli soldiers return from Lebanon", we suspect that the Israeli Army needs to send some of its men to a place like Ramadi. They'd learn pretty darn quick what CI against a serious enemy is about. No leave in 3 weeks! Gosh, these Israelis have a great sense of humor.
Read if you have time, a so-so article on Balbeck in Time http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1222201,00.html

0230 GMT August 2, 2006

1830 GMT

Israeli Prime Minister Says Hezbollah Infrastructure Entirely Destroyed...and so
Hezb Fires 210 Rockets Into Israel after a 1 1/2 day lull. The total is the biggest for a single day and includes 7 long-range rockets, one of which landed 70 km from the border.
Israeli Strategy At Last Clarified Beyond Doubt and it depends entirely on hopes and prayers. Israel will occupy Lebanon to the Litani River, and an international force will take over.
We are scratching our heads. Has the Israeli leadership gone bonkers? Here Israel is heading for the biggest military humiliation of its short modern history and all it can think of is an international force, and idea which has been tried and failed in 1982-84 when US, French, Italian, and UK troops constituted the force. And this time the US has neatly sashayed around the issue: sorry, boys, we don't have troops to spare. So who does, and what happens when Hezb blows up a bunch of intervention force personnel.
Israel And UNIFIL It seems you have only to utter the letters "UN" and Israeli minds stop working. We see again Israel making allegations that UNIFIL did not do its job. Have the Israelis ever bothered to find out what the job was?
UNIFIL was intended as an observer force between Hezb and Israel. It was also supposed to supervise the disarmament of Hezb - if and only if the Lebanese government did the disarming and Hezb agreed. It was also supposed to provide protection to the Christians of south Lebanon against Hezb vengeance for the Christians having supported Hezb.
[0330 GMT] Balbeck Israel says it captured some Hezb fighters and killed others; its raiding party made it home safely - Associated Press report. Fighting ended at 0400 local time.
Senior Iraqi Shia Official Calls For Shia Region says Al Jazeera. The official is the Shia vice-president in the government and he will bring up the matter in parliament, he says.
Israelis Says 6+ Brigades Engaged according to Reuters. The Israelis say six operations of brigade size or larger are underway. Please keep in mind that what the Israelis are not saying is that 6+ brigade HQs are engaged, and some may be pulling back even as others go forward. Also, these are not full-strength 4000+ men brigades.Israeli Army Ambushed Again This time it is the Paratroop Brigade at Ait al-Shaab. It lost three killed and 25 wounded; just as Hezb claimed, the fighting was so intense that wounded could not be evacuated. It remains unclear to us when/if they were evacuated.
Israeli Commandos Attack Balbeck This very historic city is a Hezb stronghold and it appears the Israelis launched a commando raid to capture a senior Hezb figure in hospital. Hezb says the hospital was evacuated before the attack and that it has several Israeli commandos trapped inside. Hezb denies that the Israelis managed to snatch some patients from the hospital.
Reuters reports locals as saying a second Israeli unit was dropped outside the city, mission unknown.
We have no comment to make on the raid and will not have any comment to make even if it is unsuccessful. If Israel gets the man it wanted without suffering disproportionate casualties - and, more important, without losing men as captives - then its army has every right to be congratulated. If they fail, we are not to pass judgment given that such operations by their very nature are immensely risky.
Iranian Senior Cleric Calls For All Aid To Hezbollah says Al-Jazeera, breaking with Iran's long-announced official position that it provides only moral aid to Hezbollah.
The Iranian foreign minister is in Lebanon.
Syria Alerts Army Our suggestion: ignore this, there is no sign of any real mobilization. But keep in mind that the Lebanese government, though it is headed by pro-western politicians, could ask Syria to intervene if the world is seen by Lebanon as unwilling to help stop the Israeli offensive.
On The Diplomatic Front: Garbage In and Garbage Out
US Secretary of State says its possible an agreement to end the fighting will come in days, not weeks. Its also possible your editor will be the next Miss Universe, but may we suggest readers not bet on it.
The first rift has appeared between the US and Israel. The US has been holding off all criticism of Israel to give Tel Aviv a better chance to achieve something substantial. But Tel Aviv is going around saying the US has given it a blank check and they can take as long as they need. US is not amused.
Six aid convoys could not operate because Israel refused safe passage guarantees. Look folks, lets face reality here. Israel is not interested, and never has been interested, in what happens to civilians. There is no point in getting indignant about Israel's total bloody-mindedness regarding Lebanese refugees. The Israelis figure - correctly, we believe - that they are going to get slammed whether they allow aid or not; after all, its their actions that have created the refugees. They figure they have nothing to lose and there will be no consequences - also correctly, we believe. What we haven't been able to figure out is what they think they gain. Some people simply like to stomp on other people's faces. We hope that that's not what's motivating the Israelis; but if it is, then it is. Weeping, wailing, and condemnations won't work - the rest of the world also needs to learn from its failures vis-à-vis Israel in this regard.
French Finally Show Some Sense BBC says the French have refused to participate in discussion about a multinational force on grounds it is premature.
Nonetheless, its useful to keep in mind that while the French are quite right in their position, they are also sending a message to Israel with all the subtlety Israel has displayed in its attack on Lebanon. "Don't expect the international force to do your dirty work regarding Hezb. We'll help, but only if you cooperate. You are not cooperating - you are refusing to ceasefire - so we aren't going to help."
This Letter To Haaretz.com Says It All From Mark Lincoln, Houston, TX
At the start of the war, Hizbollah boasted it had 10,000 rockets.
A week ago, Israel had claimed to have destroyed 2,000 and that Hizbollah had fired 2,000.
At the start of the war, Hizbollah boasted it had 10,000 rockets.
Now we learn that the IDF believes Hizbollah has 9-10,000 rockets left.
There are several possibilities.
1. I misunderstood the math my first grade teacher taught.
2. That Hizbollah has developed self-replicating rockets.
3. That resupply efforts have not been seriously impeded.
4. That the Variable Intelligence Generator pioneered by George Tennant has been loaned to Israel to generate statistics suitable to the political leadership - in this case to explain how the Hizbollah which was 50 percent degraded two weeks ago, had suffered major degradation one week ago, was now still kicking.
Take your pick.
Okay, so we have to admit that reproducing the letter is bad behavior on our part. The intelligence business is such that the above can quite easily be explained in terms of the difficulty of obtaining good intelligence, nothing else.
The reason we ran the letter, however, is that Israeli spokespeople are suffering from Foot-In-Mouth disease. They seem to have total contempt both for their adversary and the public at large, figuring they can say anything they want and when they want and no one will be wiser. This, however, is 2006, not 1986 or even 1966. People are far, far more knowledgeable about stuff that once was the exclusive province of military professionals; and the modern media - including the Internet - has democratized the dissemination of information and analysis.
We can hope only the Israelis learn a lesson. Either be like the Indians, who focus on the rah rah aspect of war, for example, the heroic deeds of their soldiers and studiously avoid predictions such as "the enemy is now 50% degraded", or be like the Americans, who have learned to hedge every statement ten different ways. We are talking about the military, by the way, not anyone else.

0230 GMT August 1, 2006

1715 GMT

Israeli Army now has 5 brigades operating 3-6 km inside Lebanon and Israeli papers say there is fierce fighting. So far no reserve brigades have been deployed.
To appreciate what is happening, consider that the map below from the BBC. The three new villages under attack - TAibe, Kfar-Kila, and Adisse - are halfway up the L. The map is from the BBC.

The Bad News is that Hezb tells BBC that it is fighting at Bint Jbeil - which the Israelis have just vacated after saying they've suppressed Hezb there, and that it has Ait al-Shaab surrounded and is preventing Israel from evacuating its casualties. If even half of this is true, then Houston, we really have a problem.
Israel is a democratic but fractious country where everyone is free to express his own opinion and does. Everyone is an expert and the concept of being on message seems to be - ummmm - less rigorously applied than in, say, Washington. So we are getting more contradictory information.
Hezb says it has lost 4 killed today versus killing 3 Israeli soldiers; IDF says it cannot confirm the Israeli figure and is claiming 20 dead - though because of the stupid way the media reports the news, this may be the figure from yesterday. Hezb says it has lost 43 fighters so far.
One Israeli source says Hezb has 2000 fighters; so far the highest figure from the Israeli side we've seen has been 1000. We believe it could be as high as 3000, but unless we know what criteria are being used by others, we are in no positions to compare our estimates with theirs.
Yesterday Israel was claiming 200 Hezb fighters killed, today it has upped the number to 400, saying more were killed than it previously estimated. All we can say to our Israeli friends is "Beware The Body Count."
Tactics We are concerned that Israel is once again reverting to its "batten the tank hatches and blast away" approach to warfare, i.e., demonstrate an extreme aversion to casualties to the point the mission is jeopardized. We are also concerned that Israeli units seem to be entering Lebanon for 24-36 hours and then getting back to base - this is the foot infantry we're talking about, you obviously don't leave tanks hunkered down in Lebanon, resting and preparing for the next phase of the battle. Israel is not going to clean out the border even temporarily unless the infantry holds the ground it has cleared - odd our much admired Rummy Rumster never figured that out, but if the Israelis are operating on his principles of war, then all we can say is "Good night!" in the old-fashioned American sense of the phrase, which was "Absolutely unbelievable". The ways of losing a war are probably infinite.
On To The Litani? Media is saying Israelis have decided to push on to the Litani River and www.debka.com has given what it says is the plan - usual caveats with Debka, in this case the blog is likely giving what appears to be the logical plan for Israel to follow rather than hard information from sources.
If Israel is indeed about to do this, and if it really is thinking an international force is going to come in and save Israel from having to occupy south Lebanon, and if the international community is really so stupid as to undertake the task and Israel thinks it will stay the course unlike 1982-84, then all we can say, "Goodbye, it was real." We have enough problems doing our micro-bit to get the Americans to wake from their fantasies; we long ago gave up the battle re. the Indians - who actually started to get real after the editor stopped bashing them, absolute coincidence, of course; and we don't have the time/energy to do our mite toward convincing Israel to see through its fantasies.

1130 GMT

Israeli Army is operating in villages of Kilah, Adish, and Afuah. In the cross-border operations units are staying inside Lebanon for a relatively short time and then returning to safety inside Israel.
Other units identified are 162nd Division, 300th Brigade, and 401st Armored Brigade.
This last went into Lebanon for 36 hours before returning. According to the story in Jerusalem Post, it would appear the brigade's Merkeva 4s operated buttoned up and the crews did not disembark. The troops appear to be quite frank in their inability to find and eradicate Hezb fighters: two tanks and a Puma engineer vehicle were hit by ATGMs returning; the AFVs were recovered, 9 soldiers were lightly wounded.
The commander of a SF engineer unit says Hezb is skillful in the use of explosives. His unit was responsible for opening up entry lanes into Lebanon and of attacking bridges in the area of their operations.

The Rest of The World

Fidel Gives Temporary Power To Brother Raul while he is in hospital for an operation. The fantastic brilliance of US foreign policy on Cuba for near 5 decades is revealed by US calls for a transitional government to be formed after the old boy finally cops it. Clueless in Miami is what they should call the movie. Waiting for the man to die after you have failed at every effort to remove him, and then planning to influence the future of the next government in Havana when you have exactly zero influence in Cuba - due to your own policies - is hardly a plan.
Dafur The Sudan Army has launched an offensive against the rebel groups that have refused to sign on to the peace deal says BBC. So the civilians will continue to suffer.
Serbia Defiant On Kosovo Says the province will remain part of Serbia even if it means delaying EU entry. The Serbian military was forced out of Kosovo in 1999 by NATO after Serbia began a campaign of ethnic cleansing and the province is more or less a EU protectorate. Ethnic Serbs form only a small part of the population.
Sri Lanka Truce Ends The Sri Lanka Army has begun a major ground operations against the LTTE rebels after the latter staged an unceasing series of provocations. LTTE says it has called off the ceasefire.

Contradictory Information from Israel There is to be no ceasefire BUT ground operations are planned to end by the end of the week. Iran has prohibited Hezbollah from using its longer-range rockets BUT Israel has destroyed 2/3rds. Israel will not stop till (a) its two soldiers are returned and (b) Hezbollah is no longer a threat BUT there is no indication of how Israel proposes to achieve these objectives.
The problem for outsiders like ourselves is that there is a tremendous amount of bluster and double-talk that is aimed at the Israeli public and which Israeli newspapers faithfully report. Separating the screen of words from the realities is difficult for us because we do not have the time to devote.
Nonetheless, it is clear Israel is under tremendous international - and US - pressure to wrap up its offensive expeditiously.
Military Matters An offensive is expected using the Nahal, Golani, and Paratroop Brigades to push Hezb north of the Litani River. Seeing as Israel has not cleared even the limited area it has penetrated, at this time we don't see how this is to be achieved.
Israel reports that Hezb fighters have been wearing thermal insulating suits to defeat Israeli sensors.
Israel says Hezb has fired 1500 short-range rockets, Israel has destroyed 1500, and 10,000 remain.
Israel says Syria is resupplying Hezbollah.
Israeli says Hezbollah wants to negotiate and this is evident by just two rockets landing on Israel Monday as opposed to 150 on Sunday.
Diplomatic Matters The usual meaningless babble. The best statement of yesterday comes from the French, who say Iran is a stabilizing force in the region. Tres droll, mes amis and all that rot.