· 0230 GMT December 31, 2006

· Russia-Ukraine Gas Crisis Ukraine says it has sufficient gas reserves to last the winter in the event of a shutdown of Russian supplies.

· From what we can gather from a Tass story, Russia is preparing to shut down Ukraine supplies at 1000 Moscow time January 1, 2006.

· Ukraine says it will buy 40 billion cubic meters, half its needs, from Turkmenistan at a price of $50/1000-cubic-meters (MCM). Ukraine has offered Russia $80/MCM and says it is prepared to negotiate graduated increases in price.

· Russia offers a $3.6 billion loan to Ukraine to meet higher gas prices that Russia will charge, Ukraine says no thanks.

· Ukraine suggests that if Russia insists on higher gas prices, Ukraine could raise the rent it charges the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Russia says that is a separate issue that has been negotiated, signed, sealed; and any attempts to tamper with the base agreement could have serious consequences.

· Pravda says Europeans are paying $230/MCM for Russian gas. US prices according to US DOE http://www.eia.doe.gov range from $400 to $600/MCM depending on if it is for industrial use (low end), power generation (middle range) or residential use (high end). we are not energy specialists, so we may not be comparing oranges to oranges here: please be warned.

· Baluchistan In retaliation for the operation against Baluch tribals that is not taking place, the Baluch National Army says it killed two Frontier Corps soldiers. Four Baluch political parties condemned the operation that is not taking place against Baluch tribals in Dera Bugati. Baluch sources say 250 mortar shells were fired by security forces in the non-existent operation in Dera Bugati. Marvelous things these mortar shells: the authorities can say no operation is taking place, but the shells kill you just as dead as the ones fired in operations..

· Note to Pakistan security forces: we assume there is a considerable degree of exaggeration in the number of shells claimed, but folks, you all need to improve your spotting and ranging. Locals say in a 7 1/2 hour bombardment, 17 people were injured. Someone needs to go back to the training ranges.

Profiling: A Story

·  So once again we are being told how angry American Muslims are that they are being profiled because the US government has been checking for radioactivity at American mosques and other places Muslims may gather. Here is a real life story about profiling.

· In the late 1980s the Punjab insurgency was in full swing in India. In Delhi, the police were on the lookout for a daring duo of terrorists who rode around on a scooter doing various nefarious deeds. Don't laugh about the scooter business: these things are amazingly maneuverable in tight, crowded urban conditions and can go almost anywhere a bicycle can. They are better for in-city operations than 4 wheeled vehicles.

· So, one of the terrorists was short, fat, and clean shaven. The other was tall, with full beard and long hair as featured by most Sikhs.

· Amazing co-inky-dinky, the description fit your editor and his good buddy, to a T, W, and Q.

· Accordingly, whenever we were out and about in town, we drove slowly - not a difficult feat for your editor, he kept his scooter speed down to 40-km/hr as he prefers to avoid accidents rather than survive them. On sighting a police roadblock, we'd slow down even further so the police could get a good look at us. We'd look the cops right in the eye, and nod respectfully to them as we passed the block.

· Over a 2-year period, we were stopped exactly - zero times. Had we been stopped, you would have seen no attitude from us, because there were these two dangerous guys on the loose, and we fit the bill of goods. We'd have cooperated fully with the cops, congratulated them for doing their duty in keeping the public safe, sympathized with their miserable lives and working conditions, and carried on.

· We did not write letters to editors about feeling uncomfortable and singled out and why was  profiling going on and blah and blah.

· American Muslims need to do the same and stop whining and complaining about profiling. Nowhere does it say in the American constitution that you have to made to feel comfortable by anyone. When Muslim men - and the occasional woman - are busy blowing up people, it is not profiling to give Muslim men extra attention.

· What the American Muslim community needs to do is to report to the authorities any piece of data that could lead the police to defeat the terrorists. You are Americans first and Muslims second. It is your duty to fight terrorism. No ifs and buts.

· Of course, if you are stopped by police and abused because you are Muslim or look Muslim, you have every right - as an American - to complain. There are procedures to deal with security personnel abuses.

· Remember, with the exception of some attacks, the victims of Islamic terrorists are - Muslims. If terrorists were to release radioactivity in downtown Washington, are radioactive particles going to check the religion, nationality, political beliefs of each passerby before infecting them? They are going to harm everyone impartially. That means You Too.

· Speaking of Radiological Attack Lets just say your editor doesn't lose a minute's sleep over the possibility, and nor should you.

0230 GMT December 30, 2006

• President Musharraf and his Generals: Clarification Some readers found our South Asia correspondent's comment about President Musharraf and his generals too cryptic. We should have clarified that the information means the Army's corps commanders, who are Pakistan's praetorian guard, are planning on staging a coup. The coup leaders will be pro-American commanders. Our correspondent indicates to us that the information comes from an A1 source who has a track record of correct predictions.
• We were expecting a pro-American coup last year, but your editor lost interest in the story' in any case, the coup did not take place.
• President Musharraf and his Mullahs To appreciate what the situation in Pakistan is like, consider this news item sent by reader marcopetroni. Following the discovery of linkages between the London bombers and Pakistani religious schools, under western pressure Mr. Musharraf ordered the registration of all religious schools and the expulsion of all foreign students. "Foreign" applies also to Pakistan nationals who have citizenship of other countries.
• Okay, so the deadline is approaching and the result is? 7,000 of 12,000 schools have refused to register, and have announced that the order barring foreign students is un-Islamic, so the schools are not going to follow the order.
• Look no further to appreciate the depth of Pakistan's problems today. For almost 30 years Pakistan let religious fundamentalism grow to become a weapon against India, and now basically the fundamentalists do as they please.
• Why are people picking on the Russians just because Moscow has upped the price it charges Ukraine for natural gas by 4 times? Isn't there something called a free market?
• Of course there is, is the response, but we are worried because Russia plans to use its energy resources as weapons in a quest to regain its superpower status. For example, Belarus, a close Russian ally that may one day even rejoin Russia, gets gas at 1/5th the price demanded of the Ukraine. Ukraine is obviously being punished because it has decided to look to NATO and the EU instead of to Russia. Russia could next start dictating terms to Western Europe, which is becoming increasingly dependent on Russian hydrocarbons.
• Our response: And?
• This is called "life", people. You want something, they have what you want, and the rest is free market. Free market doesn't mean the Russians cant cut deals with allies. Look at the foreign and military aid America gives to Israel and Egypt. Russia is giving aid to Belarus, and its nothing more complicated than that. You don't want to be hostage to Russian hydrocarbon policy, find alternatives. Nuclear, which Europeans and Americans alike are doing their best to avoid, is an alternative.
• Your editor's oil heat bill for December came in: $11/day for a day-time average of 57F and nighttime average of 48F, for a 850 square-foot house. And it hasn't been a cold winter so far. That's 12% of your editor's take home income when he is teaching full-time. Your editor doesn't see the editorialists picking on the oil producers.
• Personally, as far as your editor is concerned, he feels safer the Russians are trying to return to superpower status by charging market price for hydrocarbons, whereas in the past their superpower status was determined by a whole bunch of nuclear warheads aimed all over the globe.
• UN Official Says Iraq Election Fair and there is no justification for a revote.
• Nonetheless, the Iraq Election Commission has said it will welcome inspection by more international experts, who are being picked right now.
• Question for the mainstream media: where is your moral equivalence now, good buddies? So we should expect that should Zaraqawi types take over Iraq they will, like, hold free elections under international watch?
• Mainstream Media Outraged by US government paying Iraqi newspapers to run favorable news, we are told. No mention about media's habitual reliance on paying stringers to do the dirty reporting in Iraq, when many of the stringers seem to have dubious ties to the insurgents. Naturally the insurgents don't have to pay media to place negative stories about the US in their newspapers, media is doing this all on its own.
• This said, we believe the US government should have required identification of the source of the stories. US government cannot compare itself to mainstream media, by saying media does not identify the antecedents of its stringers or the bias of its reporters. This kind of comparison is lying saying: "Sure, I am a dirty liar, but HE is a dirty, filthy, no good liar."
• We heard a journalist say that its wrong of the US government to use taxpayer money to plant stories in the Iraq press. We see the journalist's point. What we want to know is, why should the US government use taxpayer's money to enable and protect private journalists working in Iraq, when these people are owned by large private entities seeking to make a private profit? Seems to us the US government is as much subsidizing media as it is subsidizing Iraqi media.
• As, our journalist friends will say, but it is the right of the American people to know, and we cannot do our work unless the government enables and protects us.
• So lets get this right: we the taxpayers have to pay so that you, the media, can go to Iraq and pursue your agendas, and dictate to us what news we will hear, AND you, the media, gets to make a profit on top of that?
• Maybe this makes sense in La-La Land, it makes no sense to us.
• Bill Roggio, the Iraq Blogger we often carry because he's one of the very few who gives a detailed picture of the war, gathered $30,000 from his readers, his wife, and a friend, and went to Iraq to cover the US Marines' Euphrates Valley campaign. Mike Thompson writes to us to inform that some journalists are suggesting the source of his money be investigated: his positive reports about the US military arouse suspicion, apparently.
• Here again you see a double standard. $1000 a day is quite a reasonable cost for a regular journalist's media owner to pay for his expenses in Iraq. That's aside from his salary - Bill got nothing for going to Iraq and probably lost money because he couldn't do his day job. So should we be investigating the sources of the media's money?
• By the way, we the taxpayers subsidize  the journalists another way. Their expense money, salaries, and money they pay stringers is all counted as an expense. So it is deducted from the media's revenues before tax is paid.
• Seems to us we taxpayers have the right to a fair and balanced picture of what's happening in Iraq.
• Here's a figure from China The country's food grains production for 2005 is 480 million tons, as against a need for 495 million tons. with a population of 1.3 billion, this means demand is 380 kilograms per capita.
• Indian per capita supply of food grains is, very approximately, 180 kilograms per capita.
• So the average Indian is getting half as much to eat as the average Chinese?
• Intuitively, we don't see that as being right, which would imply the Chinese production figures are exaggerated.
• Any thoughts?

0230 GMT December 29, 2006

Baluchistan Province, Pakistan

· From Our South Asia Correspondent Our South Asia correspondent, Mandeep Singh Bajwa, sends this cryptic note in response to our question asking what is going on in Baluchistan.

• "CIA is certainly training Balochi insurgents in Oman. There seems to be a tacit understanding between them and RAW to co-operate fully when the time comes. If Musharraf doesn't play ball or the US feels Afghanistan needs an outlet to the sea, then both agencies will unleash their full force upon the Province.
• I've just heard that a group of Punjabi Corps Commanders in Pakistan including the Quetta and Lahore ( an American favorite) ones are exploiting the Balochistan and Kalabagh situations to create conditions for Musharraf to be eased out a la Ayub in 1969. The situation in Balochistan is very serious."
• Accompanying the comments is a detailed article by Mr. B. Raman, a retired No. 2 of India's intelligence agency, the RAW. Our problem with running the article is that while Mr. Raman is a highly informed writer, he is well-versed in information warfare and we usually hesitate because we are not in a position to say which part of his articles are wholly factual, and which are skillful weavings of fact and disinformation.
• Why the Baluch are in Revolt The Baluchis have traditionally been neglected by Islamabad - and also more or less left to their own devices under traditional tribal agreements. Currently, however, they are alienated from the center because of 3 factors. [1] Because of massive development projects at the port of Gwader, Baluchis are worried they will become a minority in their own province. This has happened with Karachi, which in the 1950s was mostly Sindhi, but today is less than 10% Sindhi. [2] The fall of Afghanistan and the Taliban, a Pakistan creation, has resulted in the Pakistan Army building new bases in the province, threatening loss of prime land as well as another influx of Punjabis, who are the dominant ethnic group in Pakistan. [3] Baluchistan has seen little revenue from the steadily increasing production of natural gas, which the province has in abundance. For various reasons the little arable land that exists has been severely degraded. and Pakistan's population keeps growing at an explosive pace. The result of these 3 factors is that the youth of Baluchistan have no jobs, and no prospect of any.
• For the above reasons, and many others, two Baluch nationalist groups, the Baluchistan National Army and the Baluchistan Liberation Front, have been attacking Pakistan security forces in the province, with the aim of declaring an independent Baluchistan. An earlier attempt for independence, 1972-76, was defeated by the army.
• India supported the first Baluch War of Independence as the locals call it, but was bought off by the Shah of Iran. Iran, with its eastern 1/3rd populated by Baluchis who also doing like their center, had an obvious interest in helping Pakistan end the Baluch revolt.
• This time around, however, the Indians are not to be bought off. They are seeking payback for Kashmir, where the Pakistanis almost paid the Indians back for Bangladesh.
• The US and Baluchistan Odd as it may seem, the US has also been supporting Baluch insurgents. The reasons are many and complex. [1] Protect Afghanistan from Pakistan. [2] Wrest control of Gwader - at the mouth of the Persian Gulf - from China, which is backing Pakistani development of the port to the hilt because (a) China is expanding its influence, and (b) because China wants to protect its oil lanes. [3] Control the outlets for Central Asian hydrocarbons, which are going to become increasingly important over the next 25 years.
• Orbat.com has, of course, pointed out that an independent Pakistani Baluchistan becomes a knife in Iran's guts because Iranian Baluchistan will seek to unite with its ethnic kin.
• To further understand the US position, we need to understand that in the US's estimation, Pakistan is already a failed state. The question then becomes one of managing a transition to a different configuration. That Pakistan is the fighting element of fundamentalist Islam just as Saudi is the banking arm makes the future of Pakistan a matter of great urgency.
• Baluchistan is not the only problem in Pakistan. In the Northwest Frontier Province we are witnessing what the BBC calls a war without end, as Pakistan tries - and fails - to control the tribals. That is another complicated situation which we will discuss at another time.
• Mr. B. Raman on Baluchistan Mr. Raman says that the increasing attacks on Pakistan security forces has led the Pakistan Army to launch CI operations in Baluchistan. Two tribes are opposed to the center: the Marris and the Bugatis. Orbat.com readers will recall the rape of a woman doctor by Pakistan Army personnel at the Sui Gas Works, which almost led to open war between the Bugati tribe and the Pakistan Army. This situation was never resolved to the satisfaction of the Bugatis, and the Pakistan Army's actions against the tribe simply added fuel to the fire. We are not clear why the Marris are in revolt.
• Be that as it may, Mr. Raman says the government's attempt to drive a wedge between the two tribes has failed. Indeed, they are reaching out to other Pakistan dissidents, such as the Shias of Kashmir. [Interpretation: India's RAW is trying to link up the two groups.] The Baluch have been sympathetic to the Uigar nationalists of Sinkiang, but do not want to be seen as anti-Chinese. [Interpretation: India's RAW has not been able to link up the two groups.]
• So the situation continues to get worse.
• Just Another Incident in Pakistan In this connection we would like to bring the attention of our readers to an incident that has just taken place in Pakistan. A laborer cut the throat of his married daughter because, he said, she had engaged in adultery. Neighbors say she had done nothing of the sort: these were allegations cooked up by her husband, from whom she ran away because of mistreatment. Okay, this is horrible, but its just another honor killing in a part of the world when honor killing is rampant.
• The incident does not end there, however. He then proceeded to cut the throats of his 3 daughters, 8 and under, so that they should not commit adultery when they grow up, and thus dishonor him. He did this, one by one, as his terrified wife watched, and as he repeatedly threatened her not to raise the alarm or else he would kill her. She was cradling their 9-month old son as this gentleman went about his work. He then left her with the bodies of her children for the night.
• In the morning the alarm was raised, the police took him away, and apparently he showed no remorse at all.

Our Opinion: Moral Equivalency in the Terror War

• We mention this because a whole lot of western journalists seem to think, with regard to the War on Terror, that there is moral equivalency between the west and the Islamic terrorists, and they must report both sides impartially.
• We'd like to remind these bottom-feeders of humanity that if the fundamentalists had their way, practices like the above would become the norm wherever the fundamentalists rule - we saw what happened in Afghanistan. Its easy for the journalists to claim to be impartial, because it isn't their wives and daughters that are being treated as above.
• There is no moral equivalency in this war. Not to speak up against the fundamentalists in Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Indonesia, wherever, is to enable them, is to support them.
• At no point do we then jump to the conclusion that any journalist who questions the methods by which the Terror War is being countered is a traitor. It is the right of every free citizen, American or European or Indians or whatever, to question the means and the methods.
• We are talking about the habit of many journalists to say: "Oh, this is your point of view, you know, and the other side has their point of view, you know.". Hitler has his point of view. Stalin did too. Mao, ditto. Pol Pot, Idi Amin, Rwandan leaders, Saddam, ditto, ditto, ditto.
• There is no moral equivalency whatsoever. By all means, disagree with and dispute how the Terror War is being fought. We at Orbat.com have had growing reservations about the methods and have not been shy in expressing our thoughts. But if you think the fundamentalists are just plain folks with their point of view, which is as valid as most western folks' point of view, western journalists show just one thing: how morally bankrupt and degenerate they are.

0230 GMT December 28, 2006

· Baluchistan Province, Pakistan Vehicular movement throughout the entire province was suspended as part of a strike to protest Pakistan Army and security forces operations against insurgents.

· The government continues to deny there is any army operation, which means the people of Baluchistan are obviously very ignorant and very stupid because they are staging a province-wide strike on account of "alleged" [quote from Jang of Pakistan] operations.

· Orbat.com is not particularly concerned about the operations. After all, government forces and infrastructure have been attacked, obviously the government has to respond. What we are concerned about is the thoroughly bad habit the Pakistan government has gotten into of denying anything that is inconvenient, and going on denying it even when the world knows otherwise.

· An example is the tiresomely repeated denials that terrorists were using Pakistan as a base. There is no Al Qaeda in Pakistan. There is no Taliban in Pakistan. On and on went official spokespersons. That doesn't stop Pakistan from touting its cooperation with the US in killing/arresting the non-existent terrorists, more of whom have been eliminated in Pakistan than just about the rest of the world put together.

· Official figures on insurgent activity in Baluchistan in 2005, from Jang: 187 bomb blasts, 275 rocket attacks on government installations, eight attacks on gas pipeline and 19 bomb explosions.

· Israel Launches 8 Retaliatory Strikes against sites from which homemade rockets have been launched against Israel.

· The Palestine Authority has called for all parties to respect the ceasefire agreement signed with Israel, but Islamic Jihad has rejected the ceasefire and continues to fire rockets at Israel, mainly against civilian targets.

0230 GMT December 27, 2006

· Sri Lanka Truce Under Pressure as incidents continue. 13 sailors have been killed by road mines while they travelled in a convoy. The Tamil rebels say they have nothing to do with the attack.

· The latest involves the shooting of two militants by security forces, who say the militants attacked them first. Earlier a prominent Tamil politician was murdered; both sides accuse each other of the deed. Before that a roadside bomb killed several government troops.

· Trouble in Somalia First there was fighting in Mogadishu between militias. Now a minister in the new government who is also a warlord has announced a legislative council for the capital, and accused the President of anti-national activities. The President, who has yet to enter Mogadishu with his fledgling government because of security concerns does not accept the capital's council.

· Just Another Day in Baluchistan The authorities say they have dismantled six of 13 rebel training camps and deny civilians have been hurt in the operations, which again involved helicopter gunships. A cache of weapons and ammunition has been seized.

· Rebels fired between 8-15 rockets, depending on the news sources, at security forces targets, no injuries. One bomb went off damaging two power pylons, and two more bombs were defused before detonation.

· Russian Gas Attack Not Terrorism say authorities. 78 people were sickened by the gas planted in a chain store. Authorities say the matter is related to a business dispute.

· Taiwan Opposition Kills Defense Bill For 42nd Time says Reuters. This is a special appropriations bill originally for $18-billion, but trimmed to $9 billion as a compromise, for purchase of US and other equipment. The former ruling KMT, now in opposition, and another party that also favors reunification with the mainland say the purchases are too expensive and will provoke China.

· We've brought this up before: its no use thinking about what the US will do if PRC attacks Taiwan when a significant fraction of Taiwanese are not prepared to fight China. We anticipate as PRC grows stronger Taiwan will get even more intimidated, till it reaches a point where it votes for reunification. Don't expect the US to object: US will breathe a great big sigh of relief and say democracy has won.

· Windsofwar.com Briefing for 1 AD [annotated by orbat.com] A Jewish couple from Nazareth traveled to the West Bank town of Bethlehem in observance of the tax regulations instituted by Caesar Augustus, head of the Italian government. Housing shortages forced the couple to stay in a stable.

·  King Herod [provincial governor reporting to Rome] ordered a massacre of all boys age 2 and under living in the Bethlehem area [because of massive law and order disruptions due Palestine residents saying the Messiah was coming and would lead a revolt against Rome and restore the rights of the Palestine people.]. Some families fled to Egypt to escape the slaughter.

· Dignitaries from the Iraq-Iran region had an audience with King Herod, and then visited a young Jewish boy, presenting him with gifts. In a diplomatic slight, the dignitaries returned without meeting with Herod as he had requested.

0230 GMT December 25, 2006

· PRC Jails anti-Japan Activist for 12 years, for his role in the protests against Japanese history text-books. He subverted state power.

· Some of the protests did not have official sanction. At the same time, we are left wondering: is this person being so severely punished because the government does not want activists to get in the habit of mobilizing people on issues, however supportive of Chinese policy they may be?

· Orbat.com has approvingly talked about the US drive to push democracy worldwide. We think it would be nice if the US government took us ordinary people into confidence and told us what it is doing to bring democracy to China?

· The answer to that is, of course, there is nothing to tell ordinary people. The US makes a few pro-forma noises every time a prominent pro-democracy activist is persecuted, and that is it.

· Concerning China we are told by the government: "Be realistic. You cant change China through antagonism and pressure. We have to use persuasion."

· Orbat.com's reply: "Really?". So if the US imposes trade embargoes on China, PRC will simply trade with someone else? First, no one can replace the US in China's trade; second, if the US embargoed China, it would simply be a matter of time before the rest of democratic world had to follow.

· Each time this argument comes up, US business says: "But look at the economic benefits you gain!".

· Please explain these economic benefits to us, Charles. I recently bought an outdoor light for $10, made in China. Impressive; I saved some money, so I could buy a wrench, made in China. So I am the gainer by one wrench.

· Um, Charles, I could have bought a wrench made in India. It would have been 10-20% more. That's okay, my standard of living would not have collapsed.

· I don't doubt the world is better for free trade. That doesn't mean we should be putting money before principle.

· And if you say that capitalism will bring democracy in China, you'd have a lot more credibility with me if you permitted free trade with Cuba, Syria, North Korea, and Iran.

· Iran Reacts To Russian Enrichment Offer From the Jang of Pakistan, possibly via an AFP feed. "We have not received any particular plan yet,'' Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi told reporters.  "Its quite clear that Iran will positively look at any proposal that recognize right of having nuclear enrichment on its soil."

· Er, Hammy old buddy old friend, last we heard Russia was not part of Iran. The Russians offered to let you relocate your uranium enrichment facilities in Russia.

· Call Me George, says Charles That would be the future Charles III, Monarch of the Realm and blah blah. Charles is not a lucky name for the English monarch. Both Charles I and II lost their thrones, and one lost his head. Then there's Charles III The Pretender, who never became king, but he too had an unlucky end: defeated at Culloden, he fled for his life back to France where, as one source puts it, "The remainder of his life was spent in drunken idleness and debauchery." [http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Charles_Edward_Stuart]

· So a move has been put underway to permit Price Charles to assume the throne under another name. His favorite, it is said, is George. That is a middle name for him, as it was for his grandfather, the much-loved George VI who was actually named Albert. bbc.com tell us six English monarchs, including Victoria, have taken other than their given first names.

· This is all fine, and helps squash the superstition that the British monarch will end with our Charles. But there is a problem, and Charles, we say this as friends and admirers. We supported you 100% when you were forced to marry the beautiful but witchy Diana, and when you suffered in silence subsequently. We rejoiced when you were finally united with you true love, Camilla. Both times we got a lot of flack from Diana lovers. So if we warn, it is solely with your interests in mind.

· Mommy Dearest does not like talk, any talk, of her demise. She plans on living forever. Care to remember how long her mom lived? Oh, we have no doubt you'll live long enough to be wheeled by Camilla to your coronation, after which you'll have a few years before William takes over. At the same time, you know it does not do to get on Mumsie's wrong side.

· May we suggest a hasty retreat and an announcement that of course you expect Mom to outlive you, that bit about George was just drunken talk.

· And You Can Call Us George Too When your editor came to America, there was no multiculturalism, and thank goodness. By unanimous vote your editor was renamed "George".

· This proved to be a bit of a problem when the first Mrs. Rikhye (1 year, 9 months) was divorcing your editor and was signing the papers. "I know no Ravi," she cried, "had I known one, I would have stayed married to him, as I like the name. But it is George I married and it is George I shall divorce." A bit of retyping by the law firm and "aka George" was added to the papers.

· A great lady, as all the Mrs. R's have been. Fantastic cook, though it was a fluffy omelet that was the cause of the first rift. Madam had spent a good while making up a European style fluffy omelet and your editor couldn't eat it. To him the best omelets were made by Indian Railways: large, flat and greasy. We Punjabis are Real Men, no fluffy anythings for us. Next thing you know our minds will get warped and we'll be parading around in frilly lace underwear and red high heels.

· Lets just say words were exchanged, dishes were broken, your editor hied off to emergency on his bike to get his face fixed, where he and  the duty nurses laughed merrily at his story. There were no abused husbands in those days, either. And a good thing too.

· A husband  beaten by his wife was a source of much mirth. The only way you could save your honor was to laugh louder than anyone else and make it sound much worse than it had been: "And then she ripped out the kitchen sink with one hand and threw it straight at my - um - middle...ha ha" - you get the idea.

· Ah, the good old days. America just aint the same, Dusty.

0230 GMT December 25, 2005

· Russia Offers To Host Iran Uranium Enrichment Facilities The Russian contribution to reducing Iran's ability to proliferate is welcome and commendable.

· The problem is that a uranium bomb is a red-herring. Iran's first bombs will be plutonium, so shifting the uranium facilities to Russia - assuming Iran agrees, which it will be not - will not solve anything.

· US Demands Egypt Opposition Leader Be Freed after Aymon Nour was jailed for five years. Government alleges he committed election fraud.

· Ethiopia Starts Withdrawing Troops from Eritrea Border Under threat of international sanctions, Ethiopia has begun withdrawing troops from the Eritrea border.

· Eritrea set off the current crises when it started mobilizing because of frustrations that the UN had not forced to hand over Badme to Eritrea, as required by a UN border demarcation panel.

· Presumably now pressure will turn on Eritrea to let the UN do its job of border monitoring.

· Muslim Man Planning Killing of British War Hero sentenced to 10 years, according to a report sent by reader marcopetroni. The soldier earned a Military Cross for leading a bayonet charge against entrenched insurgents. He and his men killed 16 and captured 8.

· A Muslim resident of the UK decided the soldier had to be killed. The man also was soliciting information on a Jewish and a Hindu businessman; they were also to be killed.

· Quoting from the article, marcopetroni notes the irony whereby the would-be-killer got a fair trial, but the soldier had to testify from behind a screen to protect him from other would-be killers.

· Alex Larsen on the F-22 "While it's obvious that USAF fighter tactics center around BVR attacks that leave Soviet and Chinese-designed aircraft unable to respond, it should also be noted that the Raptor is a very formidable dogfighter. Leaving aside standard dogfighting tactics that usually have pilots working to get the kill that have Raptor pilots using their thrust vectoring to get a sharper angle of attack, and thus the kill, I've seen a Raptor pull off some maneuvers that I hadn't ever believed a jet could pull off. One  was where the Raptor in question used its nose as a pivot point and executed what could only be described as a vertical J-turn and then continuing on in the exact opposite direction from whence the maneuver started. For all the supposed maneuverability of the Su-33, even the best moves it can pull are petty parlor tricks for an F-22."

· Arab Nations Move against Terrorists Reader Mike Thompson sends us excerpts from an article in www.strategypage.com - unfortunately there is a problem with the link, so you'll have to look around till you find the article in the Counterterrorism Operations section.

· " Jordanians were very angry at the November 9th al Qaeda suicide bombings in Jordan. The attacks killed mostly Jordanians and other Arabs. Jordan, with hundreds of thousands of Iraqi Sunni Arabs in residence, and even more Palestinians, had been one of the few Arab nations left where most of the people approved of al Qaeda. No more. Jordanians now want revenge, and al Qaeda appears to realize this. A week after the attacks, Abu Musab al Zarqawi, the Jordanian who heads al Qaeda operations in Iraq, tried to persuade everyone that the attacks were actually carried out by the CIA and Mossad (Israels CIA). Nobody in Jordan believed him, and this month, a team of Jordanian counter-terrorism commandoes was dispatched to Iraq. These Jordanian special operations troops have apparently operated inside Iraq before, but it is believed that this time their mission may have more to do with Zarqawi, and those directly for the November 9th attacks.

· Arab countries are also helping shut down terrorist transportation networks, by assisting European nations in busting smuggling gangs. While most of the people these gangs move, from Moslem countries to Europe, are just seeking economic opportunities, some are criminals and terrorists. The gangs kept out of trouble in Arab countries, often bribing local officials to facilitate the movement of their customers. But the current anti-al Qaeda climate, and increased hostility towards Islamic radicals in Moslems countries, have made the smuggling gangs targets wherever they operate. As a result, several gangs have been hit hard, and terrorists have lost a convenient, if expensive, way to move between countries."

· Just Another Day in Baluchistan Quote from Jang of Pakistan "Miscreants detonated a bomb outside a police station, blew up a railway track and ambushed a military convoy with rockets in Balochistan while the main transmission line supplying power to the province was damaged after another bomb planted at a pylon exploded in Dera Ghazi Khan’s tribal area."

· Meanwhile, President Musharraf says there is no army operation in Baluchistan. Implication being all media and eyewitness accounts saying that operations are underway are false.

0230 GMT December 24, 2005

· Mexico's Immigration Rules [Thanks to reader marcopetroni] So Mexico is encouraging Latin nations to band together to resist some of the provisions of the new US immigration legislation - passed against President Bush's wishes - for example, making it a felony to illegally enter the US.

· Bad, bad, bad America!

· Except it turns out Mexico already does the same thing.

· Not Bad Mexico, but stupid Mexican government. Did they think someone wouldn't notice?

· CIA Director's Visit to Turkey Blogger Dan Darling of www.windsofchange.net draws attention to the CIA chief's visit to Turkey. Among the reasons he has gone there, say local newspapers, is to alert Turkey to possible US air strikes on Iran and Syria.

· What to us seems significant is that the Turkish Kurd exile party, the PPP, has been using their safe havens in northern Iraq to launch attacks into Turkey.

· The US has been working to prevent Turkey from attacking the PPP camps in Iraq.

· We fully support the US's efforts. For Turkey to move into Iraq will mean war against a sovereign nation. Such drastic action is justified, depending on the circumstances. The US attacked Afghanistan to destroy Al Qaeda and Bin Laden.

· There is, however, a big difference as of the present. The Taliban government was hand in glove with Bin Laden and refused to hand him over - they would try Bin Laden, they said, and if they found him guilty, he would be punished. [Of course, and the Moon is made of green cheese.]

· The Iraqi government has nothing to do with the Turkish PPP. The Iraqi Kurds appear to keep these ethnic kin at arms length.

· As such, Turkey will have to first exhaust all options to work cooperatively with Iraq, and show Iraq is acting in bad faith, before it can even think of an invasion.

· That said, the PPP has no right to attack civilians inside Turkey. It is at war with the Turks, but the minute it deviates from military targets to civilian ones, it becomes a terrorist organization; and of course, those familiar with the PPP will point out that's exactly what the PPP is.

· So the PPP has to be neutralized, or "persuaded" to change its ways. The US is the logical party to take charge of the problem.

· Mr. Bush, Wiretaps, and Impeachment Some House democrats are calling for Mr. Bush to be impeached for the wiretapping affair.

· This is smack on the nose affair, not an impeaching affair, for heaven's sake. There are no mala fides here. Mr. Bush is doing what all Presidents do, which is seeking to expand their powers. So now its turning out his take on what powers he is entitled to under the Constitution, the law, and Congressional approvals is different from what a growing number of people are saying. The correct Congressional response is to tell the President: "No, you cannot assume anything that suits you. If you need more powers to fight the Terror War, tell us what you need and let's negotiate." Most Congresspeople of both parties are, in fact, saying just this.

· The absolutely wrong response is  suggesting that Mr. Bush be impeached.

· Now, of course, some people want payback for Mr. Clinton's impeachment. Also, there is the "San Francisco Democrat" influence that does not accept the premise we are at war. To them events after 9/11 have simply been an excuse for Mr. Bush and his oily friends to enrich themselves and he needs to be punished.

· The problem is if the left is allowed to get away with its agenda, it will distract from the real debate that needs to take place between the three branches of Congress. There is no question of impeachment going anywhere. Meanwhile, those who want to chastise Mr. Bush will find a debate within moderate bounds is more likely to give the result they want.

· Rummy Says The Words Mr. Bush Won't Say So after all these months of laying low, Rummy announces that the President has authorized a reduction of forces in Iraq. Why the President couldn't make such an important announcement, and get the credit for it, we are not in a position to guess.

· One brigade of 1st Infantry Division scheduled for Iraq will not deploy at all, and one brigade of 1st Armored Division will go to Kuwait as part of the now evolving reaction force. This should bring the force down to 130,000.

· Americans Muslims Are Not Being Targeted For Simply Being Muslims, once again, as they are alleging, in light of disclosures that the US has been monitoring mosques for radiation. This is stupid talk. Certain Muslims are at war with the US, and frequently they have used mosques as places of inspiration, refuge, meeting, and planning.

· So why should the US government put the Mormon Temple off the Washington Beltway under surveillance, or the big Hindu temple in Chantilly, a Washington suburb, or the Korean church on Randolph Road or whatever. No one has used these places in attacks.

· Should that happen, then the places as required will also be put under surveillance and there is nothing more complicated about the matter.

· Cope India Turns out that not only was the US AWACS playing neutral party, but at least one of the exercises put 12 Indian fighters against 4 US fighters.

· To us what is interesting is: where today will the US fight at odds of 1:3? To get a hint as to which is the only country that could outnumber US fighters, consider some letters: A Papa, a Romeo, and a Charlie.

· F-22 We'd mentioned the Raptor in our daily updates. Mike Thompson sends us a news article that so far 180 have been authorized, which would be a bit short of two wings. A USAF wing usually runs to three squadrons of 24 aircraft or 4 of 18, with the balance of 100+ aircraft being used for training, attrition, and maintenance reserves.

· In exercises, F-22s have fought 6 on 1 and killed all six F-15s without loss to themselves. Of course, unless we know the terms of engagement we should be careful of such reports. Did the F-15s, for example, also use the AIM-120 missile?

· In general, however, because the F-22 is stealthy, other aircraft are at a severe disadvantage. Your F-22 can detect adversaries before being detected, then it simply unloads its AIM-120s pointing in the right direction and turns about to go home. In theory, at least, the first the adversary aircraft know about the F-22 is when its air-to-air missiles arrive among the adversary aircraft.

· Another very substantial advantage of the F-22 is its ability to fly at Mach plus speeds - Mach 1.4 is being mentioned - without afterburner. This makes an F-22 near impossible to catch. Moreover, if the F-22 is in trouble, it can simply break away and return for another round.

0230 GMT December 23, 2005

· White House is World Number 1 Liar Says Saddam whereas he never lies.

· Truthfully, we don't know if the White House is any kind of liar. Last we checked, its a building and buildings don't - how can we say this without upsetting a crazy - um, speak.

· If Saddam meant Mr. Bush is Number 1 liar, we have to respectfully disagree. Mr. Bush spins a great deal, as does everyone of consequence in America, or so it would seem, but he doesn't lie. If he were to do so, he'd be in big trouble.

· Now, we agree Saddam doesn't lie. When confronted about the massacre for which he is on trial, he said the people killed were a bunch of dogs who didn't deserve to live. Interestingly, his intelligence chief also beat up on dogs. When the court was told by one man the bodies of 7 of his family were stacked up outside the jail where they'd been killed, the intel chief got very excited and started yelling about dogs.

· Now come on you guys, stop this already about insulting dogs. Dogs are noble animals. Dogs don't deserve to die like dogs. Only you all deserve that fate.

· Heard on National Public Radio David Gergan, commentator, academic, and advisor to 4 presidents was on NPR yesterday. He spoke of Mr. Cheney's belief that the US presidency had been crippled due to restrictions and its power and prestige needed to be restored. Mr. Gergan opined Mr. Cheney was stuck in a time warp. Yes, in 1973-74 the president's powers were at a new low (Hint: was US president at that time and might limitations imposed on presidency have something to do with it?") but by 2001 the situation had entirely changed and its difficult to figure out what limitations he is talking about.

· Mr. Gergan also said - to a minor cheer by your editor - that Congress had abdicated its responsibility after 9/11 to act as a check on the presidency. Congress must also take its share of the blame for present situation.

· Re. Mr. Cheney and timewarps. We felt Mr. Gergan's comments were below the belt. Everyone knows Mr. Cheney is kept in frozen animation in a secret bunker and thawed out only as needed for public appearance. As far as Mr. Cheney is concerned, it is the 1970s.

· Seriously, BTW, who sent Mr. Cheney to the bunker? None other than President Bush. The Pres. has to be a lot smarter than we give him credit for, no?

· UK Sends 1100 Troops Back To Bases prior to a reduction in Iraq deployments. British have withdrawn from patrolling half their area in Iraq as 10th Iraq Division continues to get experience. The division will be fully ready in March, its commander says. The British troops back at bases are ready to go out if called on by the Iraqis.

· Meanwhile, the Polish Prime Minister says Iraqi troops in his country's zone are not ready to take over.

· Chad Reader Mike Thompson sent a report which has the chief of Chad rebels in the Sudan saying the recent attack used only 1/6th of his forces and the rebels were going to attack in full force again. They want to depose the president, they say, because of misrule.

· Well, your editor is pretty naive, but even he finds that difficult to swallow. If the rebels say they want to be the leaders because they want the loot - Chad is now exporting oil so there is actually loot - and don't see why the ruling lot should have it, well, that we can understand.

· Just Another Day in Baluchistan Yesterday, according to Jang of Pakistan: two pairs of rockets fired at security forces posts, no injuries. Two 33 KV transmission towers attacked with bombs. Police station scene of bomb blast. No injuries. Security forces continue operations against insurgents.

· Meanwhile, in the North West Frontier Province, more than 1000 paramilitary troops from 4 Frontier Corps groups have been sent to an area where two religious leaders have threatened to expel the other and are gathering their followers.

0230 GMT December 22, 2005

· At Last: Saddam the Clowne Performs Again He was getting very boring indeed. Yesterday he went postal and claimed in court he had been badly beaten by the Americans, so much so the results could still be seen on his body.

· The prosecutor, however, said that he had visited Saddam in jail and seen no signs of mistreatment. Moreover, if Saddam is found to have been tortured in American custody, he would be shifted to Iraqi custody.

· That should shut up the old dictator.

· Saddam, of course, has not said a word about his alleged mistreatement till now.

· There was another incident, this time involving Mr. Al-Tikriti, half brother of Saddam. Mr. Tikriti told a witness that the shoe of a a fellow defendant was "“more honorable than you and all your tribe, you dog!” One guard entered the dock and grasped him by the arm. As he stared at Mr al-Tikriti he was clearly heard muttering: “I am going to beat you.”"

· No, no, please don't beat Mr. Al-Tikriti. Muzzle him to show him who is the dog.

· 2nd US F-22 Squadron 1st Fighter Wing has converted a second squadron to the F-22 Raptor with its F-15 Eagles sent to other units. By June 2006 the US should have 48 operational F-22s, and 72 in the following year.

· The Raptor is a stealth fighter about the same size as the F-117, and in the attack mode carries the same payload of 2 x 2000 lb smart bombs. We are curious as to how stealthy it is in the attack mode. If it is comparable to F-117, then the US will have doubled its stealth fighter force by next year.

· Cope Thunder 2 Aviation expert Mr. Tom Cooper drops a note to say that while the F-15 versus Indian Air Force exercises last year were a setup, the Indians nonetheless caught the Americans by surprise on several points because the US DIA supplied the US Air Force with outdated information about the Indian Air Force.

· One thing we don't understand. why is the USAF having to justify its 5th generation aircraft on the basis of the Su-30 et al? The F-15/16 are late 1960s originated, and entered operational service in the 1970s. They've served now for 30 years. Okay, so the aircraft have been continually improved. But there is a limit to how much improvement can be done.

· Meanwhile, the Su-30 series was designed after the abilities of the F-15 were well known. It is a counter to the F-15, a 4 1/2 generation design, if you will. Obviously the US is going to need something better than the F-15 to counter the Su-30.

· Its fine to say "look at the USAF as a total system and you will see its much superior to any system that has the Su-30 in it". True, but since when has the US started accepting less capable parts of a system because the system as a whole is superior? The US aims for overwhelming superiority, not just superiority.

· Now, of course the F-22 has come out to be a horribly expensive aircraft. What does anyone expect when less than half the original planned totals are to be ordered? Buy the original planned quantity of F-22s - and B-1s - and unit costs will fall.

· Well, people say, the threat is not the same with the fall of the Soviet Union. Correct. But already PRC has a GNP much higher than the old USSR had. China wants its turn to be the world's Big Kahuna. So far China is not racing to arm, its proceeding at a modest speed. So we're talking 400 Flanker types. But what happens when PRC GNP goes to $4 trillion and to $6 trillion. You're going to be seeing double that many aircraft

· EU, Iran to Resume N-Talks says Haartez of Israel.

· Sun to Rise in East Tomorrow, says Orbat.com of Nowhere.

· Pakistan Army Operation in Baluchistan Continues says Jang of Pakistan. Two training camps of an insurgent group were attacked by helicopter gunships and destroyed.

· Behind The Scenes In Washington To our surprise, Washington Post had not just one article, but two that actually explained something, yesterday

· President Seeks to Expand His Powers The trouble that Mr. Bush keeps getting into is, according to the WashPost, because he and Mr. Cheney arrived in Washington believing that the power of the presidency had eroded and needed to be restored. This explains the constant pushing of the envelope. Mr. Bush got away with this till 2005 because no one wanted to create problems for him in a wartime situation. But - this is our interpretation - his missteps led to an erosion of respect for him and now Congress is hitting back.

· The Revolt of the Officers David Ignatius, a middle-of-the-road analyst for the Washington Post, explains why the officers in the military, CIA, NSA are revolting. They are fed up with the ambiguous orders they get from Washington, they are worried about the legality of many orders, and are very concerned that their careers could be threatened or ended if they are victimized for following orders.

· Thus, the Army decided, on its own, and in defiance of the President's pronouncements, that it needed to start drawing down in Iraq. Interestingly, Mr. Ignatius says this is not because they are worried about breaking the force. Rather, their believe a smaller footprint is needed for success; i.e., that the Americans are now becoming the problem rather than solving the problem.

· Though Mr. Bush started making many pronouncements about staying the course, not providing comfort to the enemy by setting deadlines etc etc, the Army has been proceeding on its own schedule and is not listening to Mr. Bush.

· The CIA and NSA situations we have already explained.

· The Failure of Leadership In the Army's case, we could well ask: "wait a minute, isn't there a Secretary of Defense who is supposed to implement the president's orders?" Well, here's the interesting thing - and this is our information, not from the WashPost. Mr. Rumsfeld has basically decided to keep a low profile on this issue. He has to support the President, but equally, he is heck-bent on a smaller army, no matter Congress has told him to increase numbers. Withdrawals suit his purpose because the strain on forces is reduced, and the argument for increasing forces is reduced.

· What this says about the White House's leadership, we leave for our readers to figure out.

· Now, at the CIA, the senior officers are livid that a political hack has been forced on them. Earlier his appointment was met with resignations of key and experienced people. Now the agency is fighting back. None of this undercuts our earlier analyses that the agency is furious at being made to take the fall for Iraq. Doubtless there are other reasons.

· What Leadership Means Churchill had a well-known little speech he would deliver when he met his equivalent of the officers - the generals and the senior bureaucrats.  Support me, and I will make you, he would say. Defy me, and I will break you. Such was the force of his authority - which he earned, and which was not bestowed on him by the Divine.

· If you read Churchill's memos by which he ran the government, you will be struck by his enormous mastery of detail, and the clarity both of his questions and his instructions. There is no wiggle room, and none is needed because Churchill always took responsibility for his actions. Everything was on paper. Incidentally, for those who have never read Churchill, a painless start is his memos. The man not only had a genius turn of phrase, he was laconic to the point of being abrupt. He didn't need 50 words when 10 would do the job, and he was a clear and powerful thinker.

· Call Us Idiots, Call Us Fools, But Call Us... Just kidding about the Call us part. We did, however, want to say something about Mr. Bush.

· Okay, he is no Churchill, nor is he a Regan or an Ike. He is messing up royally. But we still like him as a person. There is something all too human about him. We find this business of three women dominating his life charming, so Southern. Of course, its five women, because he cannot say a thing to his daughters, its Barbara who keeps them under control. We feel for him when Daddy sends him to the woodshed. His verbal missteps endear him to us - more evidence he is just a regular guy. The obvious pain he manifests when he is forced to preside at functions and be a state guest, and his obvious joy at being let out to jump on his bike is endearingly kiddish. And so on.

· We acknowledge that these exact same things are what send Mr. Bush's critics - of all political hues - bananas. But what to do?

·

0001 GMT November 7, 2005

· FRANCE  We learn that both president Chirac and the French Prime Minister have said control must be reestablished and “no-go” zones were unacceptable. So they have decided to finally break their silence, and reverse their defense of rioters. Presumably  this is not because they believed they wrong wrong the first time around, because it has penetrated even their rarified atmosphere that the people of France want action.

· The rioters were frightened, very frightened. In their fright they expanded rioting to new areas. That’s what they think of the French president and Prime Minister.

· The French police are adapting, but still so far behind the curve of the rioters’ hit and run tactics that one wonders what exactly have the police been studying these last few years?

· French politicians nonetheless  continue to fall over themselves demanding appeasement, the western press continues to sink to new lows in spinning the riots to make it look like economic deprivation and police brutality are the cause.

· What’s becoming apparent is that the rioting has just one simple cause: the Muslim immigrant communities have gotten used to governing themselves these last 15 years or so the French government has advocated “sensitivity” to their concerns. In essence, the sensitive immigrant demand has been just this: stay out of our face, stay out of life, stay out of place, stay out of life. We will run our areas as we want. We’ll force our women to veil, we’ll administer our own justice, we’ll run those who sell alcohol out of our areas, we’ll sell drugs, you, the government, just keep those welfare checks coming and stay out. The entire conflagration has been touch offed by the Interior Minister telling his men: no more no-go zones. Go.”

· The new Interior Minister, poor fool, didn’t understand this concept of self-governing zones at the heart of France. He said “we don’t care who you are, the law is going to be enforced” So for this highly illogical stand, he is being reviled by the leaders of France, and media everywhere else.

· “What?” exclaims the rioter, having burned his fourth car of the night, torched his second shop, and is starting to burn his first school, “you are calling me scum?!! I am offended, offended, and I will burn some more. Yes, I knew when I start burning, you would call me scum, and  I was so outraged, I started burning.” Normal people might go” Huh? You’re not making sense, fella.” But to the western press, it makes perfect sense.

· As for the Interior Minister, poor fool like the French Fox. The people of France are solidly behind him, and rallying more to him as every day passes. He was already favored over the French prime minister for the 2007 Presidential race.

· People of France, citizens of the world: meet your new president. He believes laws are to be enforced, not “sensitized away”. There cannot be two laws, one for white native French, one for Muslim immigrants. Thank heaven there is someone in Europe who understands that.

· THE LITTLE NATION THAT COULD Take a country called Denmark. Shape it into the shape of Virginia. Toss your reshaped Denmark over the US state of Virginia. You get a pretty close fit: Virginia is a bit bigger.

· Virginia is also small enough to take 35^th ranking in the US state size stakes.

· You get the point: for a country, Denmark is tiny.

· But yesterday, Denmark showed it had the heart of a lion.

· A Danish newspaper ran caricatures of the Muslim Prophet. 10 Arab ambassadors asked for a meeting with the Danish foreign minister to protest.

· The foreign minister said he would not meet with them. He had no power over the press, but in any event, even meet the Arab ambassadors would negate the very idea of Denmark.

· For the record, we condemn the caricaturing. Muslims are particularly sensitive to any human-made depiction of the Prophet. It is not political correctness that everyone respect everyone else’s religion. What we object to is when people get offended when Christianity is the religion in question, but that’s not relevant here.

· May we request that Muslims everywhere show the same respect to other peoples’ religions, including Indian religions, as they expect for Islam? Then maybe we can all just get along. 

· YOU GOT THAT RIGHT In the middle of a story about the deprivations of the Muslim immigrants to French cities that was so sad we ran out of toilet paper wiping our eyes and nose, and will have to use the Washington Post to wipe our behind, the BBC says: “Although some complain that their voices are never heard, as we tried to speak to local residents, we were told at one point to leave the area or risk being attacked.”

· How did that piece of reality escape the copy editor? Imagine the cheek of the reporter. He should be fired for telling the truth.

· THE DAY OF THE SNIPER: RAMADI, IRAQ Please do not misunderstand your editor: his motto is the only good terrorist is a dead terrorist. But there is nonetheless something stomach-churning about the way terrorists are choosing to die in Ramadi. Read the account below, and you’ll find yourself asking: are these men on powerful drugs? Are they cretins with IQ 60? What’s going on here?

· Multi National Forces West press release, forwarded by Mike Thompson: “In the first incident, a sniper team observed an insurgent digging a hole along a street that historically contained a high number of improvised explosive devices (IEDs). The sniper team engaged the insurgent with one round and was able to confirm one enemy killed in action.

• Shortly afterwards, a taxi pulled up and stopped between the body of the insurgent and the sniper team. Three insurgents exited the vehicle and began firing sporadically in all directions with AK-47s. The sniper team engaged all the three individuals and was able to confirm three additional enemy killed in action. At this point, a fourth insurgent got out of the taxi and began firing at the sniper team. The insurgent was engaged as well, but was able to escape in the taxi after being injured.
• In the second incident, a sniper team observed as a vehicle pulled up to a historical IED hole and two insurgents got out to inspect the hole.  When the insurgents began pulling out ordnance from the trunk of their vehicle to place in the hole, the sniper team determined hostile intent and engaged both insurgents. The snipers were able to confirm two enemies killed in action.
• In the two other incidents, sniper teams observed two masked men observing their positions at two separate times during the day. Both insurgents were engaged and confirmed killed.”
• Don’t these morons understand by now what they’re up against? The Marines have been in Anbar for two years, and shouldn’t the insurgents understand by now what happens when they pull up into a historic IED route to repeat their stuff which may have worked the first time?
• Is anyone doing autopsies of the insurgents’ bodies?
• Snipers, as a class of soldier, tend to be particularly cold-blooded and detached from human emotions. Its one thing to be in a firefight and spraying bullets at anything that moves, its another to wait for hours – and days too – in your hide, waiting for the target to come along. Then you get to see the face of the target as clearly as you can see the face of your sniper buddy, and then you have to pull the trigger knowing full well the target hasn’t a clue. As sub-class of snipers, however, Marines tend to be particularly cold-blooded for reasons we will not go into. They absolutely love this kind of hunt, and the insurgents, on their way to heaven, cannot possibly know how happy they’re making Marine snipers happy, back on earth.
• Oh, okay, you brain-dead insurgents. Why is your editor worrying about how you die? Come and and get killed, that’s what you want. And at least the snipers are saving the tax payers money with their one-round one kill routine.
• YOU ALWAYS SUSPECTED, BUT NOW YOU KNOW From Business week: HP Printer Ink - $34/ounce. Chanel 5 perfume: $29/ounce.
• Readers, the Chanel figure doesn’t look right – Chanel 5 toilet water, maybe?
• Its so long since we’ve given anyone perfume – chiefly because we haven’t the money to buy anything more expensive than Clorox Eau de Toilette, that’s Clorox toilet bowl cleaner folks, for those of who don’t know their Parfums – and believe us, we wouldn’t suggest it as a gift if you are trying to woo a lady of any age, women are so darned fussy…gumble…grumble…moan…weep…complain…whine…

0230 GMT December 21, 2005

· An Editorial Decision on the Wiretap Story Your editor has decided we are not going to going to cover this story. We have a bad feeling about where this is going, and do not see how our covering it can help anyone.

· Because your editor resides in Washington, inevitably he has comments on domestic issues, particularly if they are particularly absurd - like New Orleans and Katrina - or if there is something funny to talk about. This is not a story that is absurd or funny.

· Our concern was, and is, simply that once again Mr. Bush is going to be facing unnecessary distractions of his administration's own making, and the Terror War will suffer as a consequence.

· Considering that the Terror War is already being fought with essentially no direction from Washington, it is possible to argue the leadership issue cannot get any worse than it already is. After all, while its important that the President leads, America has thousands of very capable leaders of less-than-presidential rank who are out there in the trenches doing their best.

· President Bush's Approval Rating Climbs to 52%, a major jump from the 36-38% range into which it had dropped. The newspapers are saying that his recent round of speeches has had no effect on his ratings. Rather, its the good news from Iraq - the election and the announcement US troops are to start withdrawing.

· Sunnis Reject Preliminary Results which give the Shias a big majority in Shia provinces, the Kurds big majorities in their provinces, and a majority for the Sunnis only in Anbar (73%).

· The Sunnis are saying the elections were rigged and demand a new election.

· Well, you know, your editor spends much of his day demanding things, and for some peculiar reason he does not get 99% of what he demands. The 1% he does get is so pathetically insignificant he wonders why he even bothered wasting breath on the demand. He suspects the Sunnis are going to find the same is true of them. Demand away, folks. Iraq is now a free country. Don't expect us to hold our breath waiting to see if those demands are going to be fulfilled.

· Mr. Jalal Talabani, a Kurd who is president of Iraq, has called for the unity of Iraq. We'd suggest our readers not see anything in this call. Of course Mr. Talabani wants a united Iraq: he has a much bigger stage to play on than if he went back to Kurdestan and its 4 provinces. How many other agree with his call is another matter.

· Chad Fights With Rebels Operating from Sudan and claims 300 killed, up from 100 killed estimated earlier. Chad accuses Sudan of using rebels against it. This fight is something we are ignorant of and need to research.

· Good News from the Congo The first election in DRC's independent history of 45 years has gone reasonably well. The US has been only one of many countries that have committed themselves to improving DRC's situation, but it deserves praise for its efforts, along with Belgium, the EU, and the UN.

· Semi-nationalization of Venezuela's Oil Industry Proceeds BBC says only Exxon is refusing to renegotiate its contracts with Venezuela; all other oil majors have signed at Mr. Chavez's insistence. Venezuela now owns majority stakes in all the other majors, and the companies will have to pay much higher taxes than in the past.

· Mr. Chavez has given Exxon till year's end to comply.

· Nigerian Pipeline Explosion shuts down 7% of oil production; the pipeline was dynamited in the troubled Delta region where locals are demanding a greater share of oil revenues.

· From the little your editor knows of the situation, its clear that the Delta militias have no interest in the welfare of the Delta peoples, they simply want money for themselves. So what else is new, readers will ask.

· Analogies with Iraq and Venezuela We were wondering the other day how soon will it be before Venezuela's pipelines come under attack. Its not as if before Iraq people didn't attack pipelines. But we suspect Iraq has seen a new record for determination and severity of attacks. We don't hear much about such attacks in Iraq now; a combination of security and paying off local tribes - the Saddam Formula - has improved the situation. Nonetheless, Iran's oil infrastructure was so badly debilitated even before the looting that followed Gulf 2, that coming 3 years on oil production is still way below a potential of 6 million bbl/day and way, way below a potential of 10 million/bbl that the country hopes to reach within 10 years.

· In the Interest of Accuracy Regarding Bolivia we reproduce the following from an Associated Press article in Evo Morales' victory and his promise to end controls on coca cultivation:

• Bolivia's soon-to-be president, Evo Morales, a coca farmer under pressure to crack down on cocaine, pledged Tuesday to keep controls on coca but said he will study expanding the area where it can be legally grown.
• Morales also called on the United States to work with him to develop better ways of ending drug trafficking while preserving the traditional market for coca in his Andean nation, where people have chewed the plant to stave off hunger and used it as a medicine for thousands of years.
• "There won't be free cultivation of the coca leaf," said Morales, who still has his own coca plot and came to prominence leading fellow growers - "cocaleros" - in fighting U.S.-backed efforts to eradicate coca in Bolivia, the No. 3 supplier of cocaine to the United States after Colombia and Peru.
• Comment Unfortunately we know too little about the situation to say if the above is simply a reiteration of Mr. Morales' old position, or that having come to power, he has moderated his stance on this issue.

0230 GMT December 20, 2005

· US Frees Dr. Germ and Mrs. Anthrax along with 6 other high value detainees in Iraq.

· So they are not going to face trial, and for now its simplest to go by a London Times story, which has a US spokesperson as saying they are not guilty of anything, nor do they have information of interest. Times says this appears to be a conciliatory gesture aimed at the Sunnis.

· Presidential Surveillance Powers [Thanks to Mike Thompson]. Here is an article by a commentator who believes that President Bush is within his authority to order warrantless wiretaps: Hugh Hewitt.

· Not being lawyers, we cannot comment, but we do have one question. If the President has the authority, why is there a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act Court to begin with? And we note that with dismal regularity all Mr. Bush's claims of presidential privilege related to the Terror War so far have been rejected by the courts.

· Further, why are Mr. Bush's advisors putting him on the path to needless confrontation with other branches of the government? It costs nothing to go to the FISAC. Why try and grab the maximum power all around you and then go "So Sue Me?" This not the way American government is supposed to work.

· Rummy Rides Again No surprise: Mr. Rumsfeld has not only escaped any consequences for his Iraq mistakes, he has announced to his staff he is staying for another 3 years and they should plan accordingly.

· We suppose Rummy could turn around to us and say: "No one else is being punished. Why should I?". Good question. The only good thing is that the new Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff is not going to kowtow to Rummy, and if Rummy tries to force him out as he did to the JCS head who dared say 2-500,000 troops were needed for Gulf II, this chief is not go quietly in the good night.

· Bolivia Evo Morales is the first native to rule Bolivia after five centuries of white rule. Coca cultivation will be legalized, and hydrocarbon assets are to be nationalized. The native peoples form a large majority of the Bolivian population.

· Balochistan An opposition leader charges that the Pakistan Army and security forces have begun an operation in Balochistan province, aimed presumably at separatists.

· Oil at $57 as supplies grow, demand slows, and a warmer than normal winter January-March is forecast for the United States.

· Our Ozzie friends are now looking to pay $3.70 a gallon and are feeling mighty chuffed, as a short while ago they were paying $4+/gallon. Australians, like Americans, also rely a great deal on cars.

· 1997 statistics, miles per capita: US first, 5700; Oz third, 4300; Finland (say who again?) silver medal world champions with 4600 miles per capita. Maybe that's how they beat the winter blahs in Finland: drive furiously all over the place. [OECD figures.]

· More useless stats: US overtook Japan in annual hours worked in 1993, and its been steadily up for the US since, and down for Japan.

· In this connection there have been rumors that the Iranian president was the target of an assassination attempt a while he as in Iranian Baluchistan, which also is seeing some trouble. No reliable details.

· Belmont Club on Bolivia [Thanks Mike Thompson]. "There was nothing fraudulent about it, and voter turnout was an amazing 80%. Bolivians who are celebrating this are happy because Morales is the first-ever indigenous Aymara president the nation has ever had. For people who have been shut out from the existing system, for whatever reason, it's a great step forward to see one of their own in the highest office in the land."

· "Politics in the Third World has long been principally a synonym for plunder. The sole variation from this boring theme lay in finding new and innovative alibis under which to commit the intended looting. Throughout the 1990s traditional elites operated under the banner of the free trade, economic liberalization and privatization -- while doing nothing like that. Each time, the local elites were at pains to emphasize their theft was at the behest; indeed the compulsion of international lending institutions. Though economics in the Third World very often consisted of banditry planned locally; it was always attributed internationally, preferably to Washington; and for decades no one was overly concerned at this sickening charade because these dens of corruption were distant from the centers of world power. Until September 11.

· While radical Islam is the best known form of chaos from the Third World it was merely the worst -- but not the only -- form of dysfunction. There were many other countries where things simply didn't work, and where their overlords made a career of covering their crimes by claiming subservience to an 'international' program, as simple misdirection. The post-colonial world fell to pieces in a million ways; united only in a single, agreed-upon scapegoat: the USA. Chavez can be depended on to destroy his own country; as did Castro and as probably, will Evo Morales. Yet in the end, they too, will attribute their failings to America. What's needed is some way to make each nation consciously responsible for its own destiny. Whether in Iraq or elsewhere, that's the only way to go."

· Said much better than we could.

0230 GMT December 19, 2005

· BOLIVIA Radical native leader Evo Morales seems set to become next president of Bolivia. He has said he will discontinue the anti-drug war. If the US wants good relations, "welcome". If not, then its the US's problem.

· We aren't going to give unasked for advice to the US government on how to handle Bolivia, because we are told the US approach will be - as we'd prefer - low-key. The US will squeeze Mr. Morales from behind the scenes while appearing, in the open, to take a great deal of abuse.

· Mr. Morales's accession to president will work against him unless he gives up his confrontationist policies, which have set the indigenous peoples against the central and eastern regions. These latter are more "European" and have threatened to secede. Mr. Morales wants Bolivia's hydrocarbon money to go first to the poor Indians. This is a worthy cause, but normally when leaders say they want to help the poor, the result is simply the transfer of wealth from one rapacious elite to another rapacious group which becomes the new elite.

· As for the drug war, this is a very complex issue and we can hardly claim to be experts. We do know that if Mr. Morales ends the drug war, leftists and paramilitaries will take over with a vengeance. There will be no peace for Bolivia, in fact, the internal wars will expand.

· For the US, best to keep out and let Mr. Morales muck things up.

· That said, we do have considerable sympathy for his constituency, which has been badly treated, no argument. We hope he really will do something for them, but as they say, the proof of the pudding is in the eating.

· LETTER ON MR. BUSH AND THE INTERNAL WIRETAP MESS Reader John A. Cramer writes:

· The term "wiretap" is not correct here. The media have widely used the term, which I always understood to be a bugging of a specific phone line. The NSA is tasked with collecting intelligence from basically all electronic communication forms, including wired and wireless methods. It involves casting a much wider net than traditional wiretaps. Some idea of the "rules of engagement" can be found here:http://cryptome.org/nsa-ussid18.htm

· While this isn't the most up-to-date edition of this directive, you can get an idea of what changes might be authorized by the Executive branch. Specifically, this directive, from 1993, allows the Attorney General to authorize collection in the case of international terrorists. I suspect most of the howling you are hearing from Democrats is political - this will further inflame the left leaning folks that already hate Bush. In strict political terms,  even if the Attorney General didn't authorize this, he will say he did. The current Attorney General has a long history of strong ties to the President.

· COMMENT These days wiretap is used by some simply as shorthand for all kinds of signal intercept. The problem for Mr. Bush is there is a clearly defined procedure for internal wiretapping. He has only to apply to the  Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act Court for warrants. These are given without demur. In case of emergency, he can act without the court's prior permission, but he has to come before the court within 72 hours for retroactive permission.

· Mr. Bush has clearly said he approved warrant-less wiretaps in the national interest and that he informed members of Congress of what he was doing. He assures us that the program is very carefully controlled and that he has to reauthorize the program every 45 days.

· The further problem is that Mr. Bush does not have the authority to act as he wishes even in matters of the national interest. The American system is one of checks and balances. The FISAC is one such check. It is not an adversarial court, it works with the government. There is no reason to bypass it, aside from a general predicate the Administration has pushed, that because of the Terror War, it is entitled to operate outside the checks and balances.

· Frankly, we don't see how the American public is going to buy this because Mr. Bush has not adduced any proof - and he cannot - that he has to operate a secret program. Saying "Trust Me" to the American public and the other branches of government is a losing proposition before it leaves the start gate.

· Now, it appears true he told some Congressmen of the program. The difficulty he will face is that he did not tell everyone he should have, such as a former head of the Senate Intelligence Committee. It is also not clear what he has told the Congressmen he has spoken to.

· And even if he has, he cannot use that as an excuse to evade responsibility for an illegal act.

· We Repeat Our Position We need to make our own position clear, yet again. Your editor has not the slightest interest in if the whole world knows what he is doing. He has nothing to hide. He has no sympathy with people who have something to hide, or with people who say "I don't like the idea the government or a private company or anyone should know more about me than I feel comfortable."

· We also made clear we don't particularly care that Mr. Bush breaks or does not break the law of the land in these matters. The results of the detainee program, also originally argued by Mr. Bush to lie above the law, and on which he has had to back down, show the government is absolutely pathetic about catching real terrorists. The hard work is being done outside the US, by the CIA, the FBI, the military and others.

· People have a much higher opinion of the government's efficiency in these matters than they should. Homeland security is one big, sick, very expensive joke. The incompetence of the government on this issue is deeper than the incompetence of a third-rate banana republic. Your editor is not going to lose a minute's sleep over the wiretapping, however illegal.

· The issue here is not what your editor thinks. The issue is the law of the land. Further, and this is what worries your editor, already because of the Iraq foul-up the government is barely functioning on a whole host of critical domestic and foreign policy - and terror - issues. The last thing we need is further distractions from the issues, and further distractions are going to happen in major force because of this latest piece of idiocy by a bunch of advisors who keep giving the president wrong advice.

· We mentioned to a Washington friend that Mr. Bush was already a lame duck president with two years to go. Our friend demurred. No lame duck is Mr. Bush. He is a a ruptured duck.

· The Feud Between the President's Office and the CIA is another thing that is getting worse by the day. The CIA is in a serious payback mode for the wrongs the administration has done to the CIA. Now look, people, these are the keepers of the secrets. They have more dirt in one filing cabinet that the state of Texas has over its entire territory. We don't know if the wiretap leak came from the CIA: as far as we can tell, it came from the NSA itself. But if the CIA is gunning for the president's men, please believe us, its not going to be a fair fight. Mr. Karl Rove, manipulator elite class One has found this out the hard way. He has not been squashed like a bug yet. But he will if need be.This was the most powerful man in the United States. Where is he know? Consulting with lawyers. And you know, when you get that stage, even if the courts acquit you, you've lost your money, your name, everything.

· What Needs to be Done is not to rein in a rouge CIA. There is no rouge CIA. This is the nature of the power game: you shove someone, they push back. The President's men sought to shove the CIA. Now they have to pay.

· The solution is that everyone on Mr. Bush's team, even the good people like Ms. Hughes and Ms. Rice, have to go. The President has to seize control and start afresh. He has to tell everyone: "I appointed these people, its my responsibility. They have served the country - and me - badly. I ask the nation's forgiveness. By firing them I show there are consequences. I am appointing a new team, and I ask the nation to give me another chance."

· The nation will cheer. But is this going to happen? No more likely than the Sun turning off in the next five seconds.

· We are told - and apparently Time Magazine also says so, though we haven't read the story, that Mr. Bush has become so isolated he talks only to 3 people any more: Ms. Rice, Ms. Hughes, and his mother. Apparently his own father has turned against him.

· Jane Fonda and American Troops as Killing Machines Alex Larsen writes:

· As somebody who has gone through the training that Ms. Fonda insinuates makes soldiers into war criminals, I couldn't help but laugh. Yes, there is a certain amount of blood-thirstyness and cold detachment where the value of life is concerned, but we had [drilled into us] the importance of following the various international treaties governing what is and isn't considered a war crime, almost none of which the United States has signed, from the get-go.

· For example, during bayonet training the officer or NCO in charge will ask through a blow horn, "What makes the green grass grow?" and the entire company will sound off with, "Blood, blood, bright red blood."

· On the opposite side of the token, we were told that if an enemy built a bunker on top of a hospital, we could not use heavy weapons on that bunker because of the very great possibility of killing hospital patients, so we would be required to take the bunker floor by floor and room by room; which as you can imagine could turn out to be a very bloody endeavor.

0230 GMT December 18, 2005

· President Bush Says He Authorized Domestic Message Intercepts by US National Security Agency. He said doing so was within his power, and he attacked the New York Times for leaking the news because the story would hurt national security. He had reauthorized the program 30 times, and would continue to reauthorize it. Congress members were kept informed.

· Okay, first congratulations to Mr. Bush for having learned something from the ruckus about torture, because he has almost immediately taken responsibility and not tried to hide behind spinning words. This is a start.

· What is not so good is that apparently there is no law that authorizes him to okay domestic wiretaps without a warrant. He has legal authority to ask a court for wiretaps; in emergency he can okay wiretaps as long as he retroactively asks the court for permission within 72 hours. It is near inconceivable that if the government asked, even retroactively, the court would refuse.

· Further, a number of Congress people are saying they were not told of any such operation. One senator promises to start an investigation, and if Mr. Bush has indeed broken the law, lets just say there is going to be heck to pay.

· New York Times says that some NSA personnel were so concerned about the legality of their orders they refused to participate in the program.

· This is going to be a dirty, dirty business that will distract further from the Terror War. The jihadis are too stupid and too ignorant of America to know anything about what's happening, else they'd be dancing in the streets.

· Meanwhile, the Messenger Stinks Too Reader Mike Thompson sends us a Drudge Report update, where Matt Drudge says that when the New York Times broke the story, it omitted to say that it had a personal interest in the timing. Apparently the Times reporter involved has written a book "State of War: The Secret History of the CIA and the Bush Administration". The NSA wiretap story is in the book, which is about to be released. Connect the dots.

· And The Stinkiest of All Are the civil servants who are leaking these stories to the press. The President of the United States is entitled to expect a bureaucracy that plays by the rules. No government can expect to function if every time a bureaucrat doesn't like XYZ policy, s/he jumps into bed with the nearest reporter.

· Are we saying that bureaucrats should just shut their mouths when they see unlawful behavior?

· We are saying nothing of the sort. But if we expect the President to follow the rules, his bureaucrats also need to follow the rules. A bureaucrat must first resign her/his job before talking to anyone. There are no ifs and buts here. The FBI officer who stayed in service even as he was leaking information on Watergate acted every bit as immorally as President Nixon did.

· Notice we are not talking about the need for the media to observe rules, such as coming right out and saying "we are releasing this story so that it will boost book sales by our reporter". The media has no morals so there's no sense asking them to play fair.

· Fallujah Reconstruction Promises Not Fulfilled says the Sunday Times of UK. Very little money has actually been given to the locals and the city lies in ruins. The operations against Fallujah and the aftermath have increased support for the insurgency says the Times.

· Okay, the part about the money not arriving is serious. The rest of the story, headlined "Terror Reborn in Fallujah"  http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2089-1937778_1,00.html is a joke and shows that even British media can act pathetically stupid. To support his thesis the reporter quotes a couple of people to say they support the insurgency. This used to be called the American style of reporting, and is now becoming universal. Instead of hard news and analysis, we get stories that talk about feelings and  basically  have been created to frame the reporter in a glowing light. The people in such stories are just props.

· And by the way, Terror Cannot Be Reborn In Fallujah. Terror Never Died in Fallujah. That's Because There Was Never Any Terror In Fallujah. Fallujah was 100% anti-government and anti-American. It was a base for terrorists striking all over in Iraq. But there would have been no point to terrorizing anyone in Fallajuh because everyone was on the same side. Get it, Sunday Times, or is this too complex for you?

· So the correspondent was shocked to see the extent of destruction in Fallujah? What did he think the Marines and the Army were doing? Playing tiddlywinks with the insurgents who had booby trapped the entire city? He must be the last person on earth to know that Fallujah was destroyed.

· Is he so brain dead that he fails to realize no American was concerned to win any hearts or minds in Fallujah?  The Americans had one single objective, which was kill anyone opposing them in Fallujah.

· They succeeded.

· End of the story. You can go home now, Mr. Sunday Times reporter.

· If the people of Fallujah decide to continue the insurgency when the Americans leave, well, the Iraqis will kill them.

· Perhaps our good reporter has forgotten how the United Kingdom became the United Kingdom? Nation building is not a pretty business. In this respect, we suspect the Irish and the Scots might have a few stories they want to tell.

· If anyone wants to talk about Fallujah, it should be about how the insurgents stupidly thought that Grozny tactics would work against the Americans. We don't know where these cretins come from. Is there no one who studies the American way of war before taking on the Americans?

· Reader Mike Thompson Refuses To Withdraw his request that we make Ms. Fonda go away. It seems, says Mr. Thompson, that the editor is kind of "Fonda Janey". No, sir, Ms. Fonda was not on the Xinhua list of 10 best-dressed women. She is no great dresser, but she wouldn't have made it because of her age - Xinhua has bought into the American cultural ethos - and just imagine, the Chinese still think they are an independent country. Ms. Fonda is a woman. Xinhua's 10 fall into the Pop-Tart Division. But then what does your editor know, he's from Iowa.

230 GMT December 17, 2005

· Please Make Her Go Away pleads reader Mike Thompson, in reference to a forwarded story about Jane Fonda.

· Ms. Fonda's latest theory is that American soldiers are trained to commit atrocities. As we understand it, though her logic is not all that easy to follow and we have had to interpolate our own interpretation of what she means to say:

· [1] In World War II and Korea, the services discovered American soldiers had a reluctance to kill. So their training was changed during the Vietnam era, and this new training continues to this day. It is designed to turn American soldiers into killing machines.

· [2] As such, whoever comes within their sights has to be killed. Since many such people will be civilians, you get atrocities.

· [3] The soldiers are not to be blamed : its not their fault, its the fault of the trainers.

· Our comment [1] Its very hard to attack Ms. Fonda, no matter how inane she gets. As she enters the senior citizen stage of her life, she remains one of the most beautiful women in the world. And lets face it, folks, beautiful people, men or women, get away with a lot more that those of us who are plain or ugly. So our comments are going to be about as hot as tepid dishwater.

· [2] It seems to us American soldiers are doing a really bad job of committing atrocities in Iraq, given atrocities is what Ms. Fonda says they are trained for. Given the unbelievable amount of firepower Americans deploy, its really sad how few civilians - and adversaries - they are killing. No one seems to have good figures, but somewhere between 20-30,000 civilians may have been killed since the fall of Baghdad. Considering most of them have been done in by insurgents, the results are pathetic.

· [3] We don't doubt Ms. Fonda has a partial - a very partial basis - for what she is saying. Studies from World War II - and if are not mistaken, extended to Korean - showed that a surprisingly high number of American troops just didn't even fire their weapons in combat. Was the figure 30%? If anyone remembers the DuPuy studies, please write in. We find nothing odd about this: anyone with half a brain is simply so frightened when caught in combat they can take no action, even if it is to save their own lives. This may be particularly true of draftees, who just want to be someplace else. So, if a soldier is not firing his weapon, he is not just not killing anyone, he's endangering his own side. It would seem reasonable training would have to be changed to change this state of affairs.

· [4] As far as civilians go, we do know the US ground forces today are extraordinarily careful not to kill civilians.

· We ask Mr. Thompson to reconsider his request. True, if Ms. Fonda is sent away, no one will have to tolerate her comments. But then, a lot of men are going to suffer if Ms. Fonda is sent away. Can we persuade Mr. Thompson to put up with Ms. Fonda's political side for the sake of - um - art?

· This Man Needs To Be Put Away Charles Krauthammer, a rather conservative writer - especially on Israel - writes in the Washington Post that the new President of Iran is certifiable. Apparently the president was caught on tape telling someone that when he delivered his speech at the UN, a halo appeared over his head, and the audience was held silent and unable to move, for 27 or 28 minutes, while they received the message from this great man.

· Mr. Krauthammer also notes something we have heard before: the Iranian president belongs to a section of Muslims who believe their job is to accelerate the end of this world so that the new world, into which  the 12th Prophet will guide us. Now, we want to be clear there is nothing particularly Muslim about this strain of thought: many Russians also used to think - perhaps they still do - that the world has become irrevocably corrupted and needs to be destroyed. As for Americans, well your editor listens to a southern Baptist radio station because he likes religious music, and he gets treated to regular blasts for what's in store for sinners. And it seems to the editor that the Christians who don't make the grade are going to fare worse than us heathens, who, after all, are guilty only of ignorance. Fire, flood, earthquakes, you name it, and its coming.

· But - as Mr. Krauthammer notes, Israelis who think like this are few, and they don't have their fingers on nuclear triggers. We can by extension say the same about other apocalyptics.

· We need to add that, needless to say, that the Muslims who think this way have a very specific idea of where the corruption originates: from the stinking, immoral west, of course.

· More Defeats For Mr. Bush as the US Senate rejects extensions to clauses of the Patriot Act that were set to expire. And then there is a very nasty story that the New York Times said it originally did not publish at the administration's request about how the US government has been snooping on Americans without warrants. NYT says it held the story for a year because administration sources assured it that the law was being observed.

· We first want to make clear to readers we have no problems with the government or anyone knowing about every aspect of our lives. Your editor is an old-time Puritan with a simple credo: if you are doing something you don't want other people to know about, don't do it. That's not very complicated, is it? So if the US government wants to snoop on your editor's life, that's a matter between the US government and itself: your editor could give a hang one way or the other. He tends to be quite suspicious of people who claim privacy rights.

· The issue, however, is not what the editor thinks. The issue is the law of the United States. When the Patriot Act was enacted, a lot of people were worried it was eroding time-honored American rights to privacy; more than that, they worried that without checks, these new powers would be misused.

· Well, that's exactly what seems to have happened.

· Our Main Concern Regarding Mr. Bush is simply his rapidly eroding credibility and its negative effect on the Terror War. Mr. Bush and Company have spent the better part of 4 years saying: "Trust us", and then acting in ways when we'd have to mad to trust the government.

· But meanwhile, however much incompetence the administration may have shown so far in the Terror War, and however many lies may have been told, the reality remains that there is a war on. It needs to be fought - Iran above is just one of the more urgent cases needing immediate attention. If the president has no credibility, there is no way the country is going to trust him to continue the job, especially when hard choices have to be made.

· To hold off Mr. Bush haters who are going to email us and say: "why are you pin the administration's problem on us? We're not the cause", we hasten to say we are at no point saying that if the government has been lying, its lies should not be exposed. we are simply noting there is a problem, created by the administration, and America and the whole world is going to suffer for it. We don't think every aspect of the war on terror can be left till America gets a new president in 2009. And even then who is to say that Americans are not left with such a bad taste in their mouth that they cripple the new president?

· Unasked for advice to the American elite Just stop lying. The world is not going to end. Getting a consensus on difficult issues may actually become easier if the elite stops lying - we are talking about every aspect of American life, not just the Terror War. If I can trust you, I will be less inclined to be confrontationist and more inclined to compromise.

· Speaking of lying A brilliant concept used by American Congressmen is to alter electoral districts to guarantee the victory of the incumbent. So that is why you see some incredibly weird districts in America, and ma be one of these days we'll print graphics of some of the more outstanding.

· Well, this process is also a form of lying. And the disgraced Republican majority leader of the House, Tom DeLay is a past master of redistricting in his state, Texas.

· So today Tom Toles has a wicked cartoon which shows 7 elephants in suits sitting in the Iraq assembly, the elephants being republicans. One says to another: "It is pretty remarkable. Tom Delay drew districts that allowed the GOP to pick up seven seats in the Iraqi Parliament."

· [Disclaimer: we are not Tom Toles fans: he makes too many petty personal attacks on President Bush.]

· China News Foreign exchange reserves are expected to hit $1 trillion next year. Beijing's prescription for this massive imbalance? Americans should save more.

· A new 960-km pipeline from Kazakhstan to China became operational, 15 months after construction started - we guess there are no environmental impacts statements involved. Its initial capacity is just under 200,000 bbl/day which will double in a second phase.

· Xinhua really needs to focus on the straight news: your editor is too old for articles such as the one in the December 17 issue on the 10 best dressed women in the world. Eight of them are in such a serious state of undress that your editor thought he was going to keel over. What an inglorious way to go. Kids, your dad intended to remake the world. Unfortunately, he died while perusing Xinhua for news for the daily update. Duty always came first with him. He passed out in a pool of drool and drowned. We're suing Xinhua for running material unsuitable for staid defense analysts. Its not about the money, its about returning some of the money stolen from American workers. [Better stop here - your editor is getting carried away.]

· Incidentally, Kate Moss heads the list, and oddly she is one of the two that actually have clothes on.

0230 GMT December 16, 2005

· Tall Tales From the Wild West - of Iraq, that is. CNN runs a story saying the Iraqis had Zarqawi in custody at one point earlier this year but let him go because he was not recognized.

· We have our own theory on Zarqawi, and if anyone should challenge us to prove it, we will have to retort "you have to prove your theory first."

· We think there as once a Zarqawi, a petty criminal from Jordan who went to Afghanistan to fight jihad, but proved to have come too late. This Zarqawi then just sort of slouched around, not doing much. When the US attacked Iraq in 2003, he flocked to western Iraq like many  other misguided souls, where he was either quickly killed or captured.

· I.e., there is no Zarqawi, master insurgent. Everything about him is made up, by the Americans.

· Okay, granted we can produce no proof at all of our theory. Where's the proof he exists? How come he always manages to escape, just in time? How come scores of his associates have been captured or killed, and yet he boldly wanders around Baghdad and Western Iraq, immune from harm? We ask these questions for starters.

· Iraq Voting Went Off Peacefully Results will not be known till end December, but speculation is because of the heavy Sunni turnout, the Shias will get only 40% of the seats in Parliament, with the Sunnis and Kurds getting 20% each, and other parties getting 20%.

· So the Shias will have to rule by consensus, is the theory.

· Reality check: the Shias don't want to rule Iraq. They want to rule their 9 provinces, and they want to be left alone. May be things will change, but we are doubtful. Look for three nations in Iraq, regardless of what people say about their commitment to a united Iraq. That would be the elite speaking.

· Dickie Takes a Beating The US Vice President does not like to lose. He has just lost, big time. President Bush has come to an agreement with Senator John McCain that the US will not use torture against terror suspects. The House has voted overwhelmingly in favor of a torture ban - earlier the Senate had voted 90 to 9 for a ban. And Ms. Rice, US Secretary of State, says US will not pursue the theory that American law on torture does not apply to offshore prisoners.

· We don't want to bore readers, and we've said this before. The US should just not take prisoners in the first place.

· Western Observers Pull out of Eritrea leaving Orbat.com quite confused. Just the other day the UN Secretary General was saying he was not to going to remove western observers as ordered by Eritrea, and the Security Council was backing him. We were impressed by this new steadfastness on the UN part. So what happened?

· Along with 180 western observers, 20 from other countries are also leaving.

· Meanwhile, a success story: UN troops have left Sierra Leone after a 5-year stay.

· Also meanwhile, a gripe. Your editor is always careful to avoid using the derogatory "Pak" to refer to Pakistan. Its like calling the Indians "Indies" (as in "We, the Indi People"). So your editor always spells out the "Pakistan Army". The BBC story on the withdrawal of the UN from Sierra Leone, mission accomplished, shows Pakistani soldiers with identifying cloth badges stitched to their battle dress saying - you guessed right - "PAK ARMY".

· UN Lebanon Assassination Probe Extended by 6 months, as requested of the Security Council by the lead investigator.

· Meanwhile, 5 pro-Syria cabinet ministers have resigned, saying that any outside probe into the Lebanon murders is an infringement of Lebanese sovereignty.

· And presumably cabinet ministers taking their money and marching orders from Damascus are not an infringement of Lebanese authority?

· These men need to be arrested as foreign agents. The reason they are still around is a that some Lebanese factions to this day welcome the Syrian presence as a counterweight to the Christians and other factions.

· Top Baluchistan Commander Wounded The top paramilitary forces commander in Baluchistan, a two-star general, and his deputy, a brigadier, were wounded when unknown persons fired on their helicopter.

· We've received reasonably reliable information that the US CIA and India's equivalent, the misnamed Research & Analysis Wing, have been cooperating in aiding Baluch insurgents. Its hardly a secret that the Indians have been in Baluchistan in force for some time now. We are a bit puzzled about the US angle. The CIA has its own teams with locals to hunt Taliban and insurgents. If the these teams are getting cooperation from Indian agents operating in Baluchistan, that makes sense. But - while we have advocated the US encourage the Baluch to declare independence as a way of increasing pressure on Iran, we'd be surprised if the CIA is encouraging the Baluch resistance.

· But - in all fairness, we are usually the last ones to know anything.

0230 GMT December 15, 2005

• Media Takes a Beating, oddly at the hands of Time Magazine which is also part of the media, albeit as a print weekly. We can stop speculating, here's the figures on what Iraqis think is with their lives.
• Sunnis: 25% say their lives have improved since the war, 21% feel safe in their neighborhoods. Understandable, considering the Sunnis have no idea what tomorrow may bring them, now that they are out of power, and considering the insurgency is being fought out mainly in Sunni territory.
• Kurds: 73% say they are better off now, and 80% feel safe in their neighborhoods.
• Shias: 59% feel their lives have improved, an astonishing 82% feel safe in their neighborhoods.
• But here's what boggled our minds: Baghdad residents: 59% say their life has improved, 70% say they feel safe in their neighborhoods.
• Thus: clear majorities of people feel their lives have improved since the war, and feel safe where they live. We need say no more.
• Pakistan's North West Frontier Province Takes Turn for the Worse The Christian Science Monitor is one of the more thoughtful of American newspapers. In the military and allied communities its taken a beating because of its rather silly analysis of the Cope India air exercises, but we don't hold that against the CSM. Military reporting requires one to be an expert in many fields, and you can still get things quite wrong.
• CSM says that though the Pakistan government had 60,000 paramilitary and regular troops in the NWFP, clashes between security forces and militants have become more frequent. Islamic fundamentalists from other countries are taking up residence; together with local fundamentalists they have started Talibanizing the area.
• No need to put a spin on this, we have to call a shovel a shovel. This is not a good development, the more so because Pakistan is a soft state in every aspect of internal security - except, some cynics will say, in the business of maintaining the generals in power. Of course, creating a base to replace what has been lost in Afghanistan is not possible, given the enthusiasm with which the US is hunting down and killing militants. Still, in the Terror War, this is, at least right now, a small win for the fundamentalists to provide solace for the long string of defeats.
• Speaking of defeats, we trust readers are keeping on top of Bill Roggio's reports from Western Anbar - www.billroggio.com. The reports are an excellent recounting of how difficult the business of counter-insurgency is, but also how relentlessly the Americans have been pushing forward now that they have reinforcements withdrawn from other parts of the country.
• Remember the Alamo seems to be Mr. Donald Rumsfeld's battle cry. After having been proved wrong on every aspect of Iraq after the fall of Baghdad, you'd think Mr. Rumsfeld would have learned something? Not a chance. He is still working hard on reducing American ground forces, in direct opposition to Congress's mandate to increase the size of the Army. Its that same old "We need lighter, more agile forces to fight the war on terror".
• Now, we know that things went to heck and beyond for the occupation because there were insufficient forces. This is why its taken two years to largely pacify north central Iraq. We see what happened in Anbar because there was a very severe shortage of forces.
• But the darling Mr. Rumsfeld is still heroically plodding on with his thoughts that the Americans don't need many ground troops. He wanted to send 60,000 troops to Iraq, by the way.
• Davy Crockett sure could have used a man like Rummy. Stubborn as a mule, which is insulting mules, because they can be pretty flexible if you treat them right.
• Robert McNamara at least had the grace to resign when he saw he was wrong. Not our Rummy. He just keeps marching on, like the Energizer Bunny. This is what happens when you have a Consequence Free Regime, such as Americans now have in Washington. No one gets punished for their mistakes. Now if we could just give him a slight push so that he continues marching across the Washington Beltway, instead of inside the Beltway, the world would be.
• Four Years in Solitary is what some stupid, sorry terrorist suspect has spent in the US Navy's custody. During this time, his lawyers say he has been denied reading material, toilet paper, toothpaste.
• The Navy says it is not mistreating the man.
• The US Navy should be ashamed of itself for spinning. Four years in solitary is not mistreating someone? Four years of not bringing him to trial is mot mistreating someone?
• Look, we are not making excuses for this man. We don't doubt he is guilty of raising money for The Cause and scouting out chemical availability for large-scale sabotage and other stuff he is accused of.
• Bring him to trial, sentence him to death, and shoot him.
• But don't ever dare say you are not mistreating the man, US Navy. You dishonor yourself and a very fine fighting service by spouting this garbage. And please don't give us the "orders" latrine contents.
• "If I Support An Unelected President, The Terrorists Win" says a bumper sticker we saw the other day. Oh brother, what a lot of cold, frozen horse manure.
• Question to the owner of the car: The unelected president is who? If you are referring to our friend W, you need to get on strong medicine. He won the 2004 election with a plurality of the popular vote, as well as, of course, the electoral college vote.
• If you are referring to 2000, where Mr. Bush won via the electoral college, and if you think that is being unelected, you need to go back to 7th Grade and study the American system of government. Good grief.
• China versus India An Indian reader emails apropos our story on the revision of China's GNP and where India stands in relation: "Based on World Bank figures, which admittedly are given by governments, and using purchasing power parity, China has a GNP twice India's. It is accepted that India's GNP is considerably understated and there is a serious case for revision, which would reduce the gap.
• By focusing on GNP/Per capita, however, you are missing the real difference between India and China. With regard to quality of life indicators such as life expectancy, literacy, infant mortality, etc., China is way ahead of India."
• No dispute there, people. We have long maintained that the manner in which the Indian government has ignored, and continues to ignore, its people is a crime against humanity. You don't need large sums of money to provide clean drinking water, basic health care, and basic education to your population.
• Some years ago, there was a severe drought in an Indian state and people were dying of starvation. Meanwhile, there was so huge a food surplus in government hands that a significant percentage was rotting and providing a healthy diet to rats because there was no way of storing all those grains. A local official was asked why the starving were not being fed. It would bring down market prices, he responded thoughtfully, if the government were to start releasing food stocks, and that would reduce the incentive for farmers to grow and market a surplus.
• If you don't know India, you will find this story unbelievable. But it is true, and we hope someone who recalls the incident will unearth a reference.
• India has many things to be proud of, and its democracy is one of them. It has many things to be deeply ashamed of too.

0230 GMT December 14, 2005

• Sydney, Australia Sporadic violence continues and incidents have been reported in two other towns. Nonetheless, the dominant trend right now, on both sides, is a revulsion against racism of all kinds. Australians really are very tolerant; a lot of grievances had built up because of previous incidents involving "Lebs" and because of the Bali bombings, but mainly people seem to have gotten the anger out of their system and are searching for reconciliation. That doesn't mean the extremists on both sides have suddenly changed their attitudes; it does mean that the vast majority of Australians, of any color, are saying "Enough".
• It is being said that the trigger incident, the beating of two white lifeguards by Arab youngsters, had nothing to do with race.
• France Submits Resolution Asking 6-months Extension for the UN probe into the death of Lebanon's ex-Prime Minister.
• The French have repeatedly shown they are not going to let his matter go. We congratulate the government of France for its determination that justice will be done.
• A Little Story on the Iraqi Elections You Will Never See in the American Media Read this story from the Times of London online edition, headlined "The third election this year - yet hunger for democracy grows" http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,7374-1927583,00.html
• China's GNP To Be Revised Upward to $2-trillion+, putting it in 4th place after the US, Japan, and Germany. The 20% revision is supposed to adjust for previous under-reporting in the service and small-scale sectors.
• If people want to live in fantasy land, certainly Orbat.com can't stop them. We read the business magazines, and we wonder when hundreds of millions of workers are willing to take dirty jobs at gross wages of $1-200/month for 80 hours work weeks, how per capita income can be approaching $2000.
• As for underreporting of GNP, India has been underreporting for decades. India's GNP of $725-billion for a population of 1.1 billion is a fiction, and when you visit India and China, you will see the typical Chinese does not make three times as much money as the typical Indian.
• This matter of GNP has always puzzled your editor. In the late 1980s, when he was in India, the theory said labor should be plentiful at Rs 10/day, given the current GNP/per capita figures. In fact, aside from the very poorest districts of chronically poor states such as Bihar, or during dry season in the poor districts of Rajasthan, you couldn't get anyone to work for Rs 10/day. Whenever your editor brought this up with economists, they would simply say: "its well known our GNP and per capita are seriously under-reported". Some people put the figure at 15% under-reporting.
• In truth, India is already a trillion dollar economy and China is not yet a two trillion dollar economy. Moreover, there's something in India called the rule of law and the right of workers and people which hampers the economy, and thank goodness for that. What worth is economic development if people have no rights? If you try and take over people's houses and land in an Indian city the way the Chinese routinely appropriate property, you'd have an insurrection on your hands. Some papers like the UK Economist are forever praising China and putting down India. No doubt the Economist would have praised Hitler's economic growth. India doesn't have a floating labor force of 1-200 million looking for work at any wage. That's all one needs to know about how well the two countries are doing.
• The Chinese did start a decade earlier and they have worked very hard indeed to develop their country. More power to them. There's a lot of Indians, your editor included, who prefer the slow and steady Indian approach of 6-7% annual growth versus China's 9% - if China is really growing at 9%.

Editorial

Take Down the Iranian Mullahs

• The news that a truck-load of fake ballot papers was intercepted on the Iran-Iraq border should come as no surprise. From the day in 2003 Saddam vanished from his Baghdad command post ahead of arriving American troops, Iran has done its best to spread chaos, murder, and mayhem throughout Iraq.  But for the ghastly mess the US administration made of the occupation, Iraq's actions would have been recognized for what they are: war against another state.
• Right now the American press is full of stories concerning the demoralization of Mr. Bush, and unfortunately the stories are mostly true. But Mr. Bush is not a private individual, entitled to withdraw to his retreat when people start throwing rotten eggs at him. He is the president of America, and he needs to come out, and start making the case for regime change in Iran. To fail in this is to fail in his duty to America, and indeed, to the whole world.
• Instead of doing everything to suppress news about the true extent of the Iranian war against Iraq, the US needs to publicize it. In doing this, the US needs to follow a straight and narrow path: no spin, no lies. Just tell the truth and let the truth speak for itself. This alone will help enormously in getting the US public to understand why the mullahs must go.
• Iran: Whistling in the Dark One might never guess it from the way the Iranian mullahs talk - and we count its new president as a mullah because though he is not a cleric, he is as intolerant as the worst of the intolerant clerics - that they are running scared. Every little success in Iraq brings their doom closer. When the hated Shah fell, the Iranians erupted in a frenzy of revenge and blood lust. The same thing is going to happen when the mullahs start to fall. They are not going to be able to retire into obscurity as happened to the communist rulers of the USSR and its constituent states. The mullahs will be torn to pieces in exactly the same way anyone associated with the Shah's regime was torn to pieces. They have every reason to be afraid.
• But wait, you will say. Iraq and Iran and are both Shia; the Shia have the ascendancy in Iraq; isn't the real danger that Iran and Iraq will combine in a giant fascist theocracy and threaten every value of democracy?
• The Iraqis may be Shia, but they are nationalists. Just as Saddam did everything he could to keep the Iranians down, so will the Iraqis. This is something many Americans did not understand when they went into the occupation. But they understand very well now that Shia Iraq is no friend of Shia Iran.
• That aside, the danger for the Iranian mullahs is that the Iraqis are showing a people's democracy can work in an Arab land. It is a simple matter of time before the Iranians start asking: if the Iraqis can have democracy, why can't we? The answer to that question inevitably leads to mullahs that have been executed by the mob, or serving jail terms of such severity they will never leave jail alive.
• That is why the Iranian mullahs are frantic, and that is why they will do anything to see Iraq's democracy fail.
• Iran and Israel: Yet Another Misfire When you are in danger of your life and under increasing pressure, it is understandable you will make mistakes. And in the case of Israel, Iran is making such an obvious mistake that we can surmise only the Iran's are so desperate they cannot think rationally.
• Iran is trying to play the Israel card, and it will fail. First, odd as this may sound, Iran has traditionally not seen itself as a champion of the people of Palestine. These unfortunates have had so many champions that the Iranians, who consider the Arabs to be an inferior race, have till now had no wish to be associated with the problem.
• Second, this is the year of our lord 2005, not 1955, or 1965, or 1975, or even 1985 or 1995. The Palestine issue has steadily receded as the US has knocked off one enemy of Israel after another. The Egyptians were the biggest enemy; they are friends of Israel now. Jordan came next, followed by Iraq. Syria's days as an enemy of Iraq are numbered, and when Syria goes down, so will the pathetic creatures of the Iranian mullahs, the Hezbollah. The Middle East has seen peace, and it has gotten used to the money and comfort that comes with peace. The Jordan River would have to freeze over before the Arabs are willing to lose peace to fight for the Palestinians.
• In short, no one is interested. If it hadn't been for that maestro of corruption and depravity, Arafat, who was fighting to remain relevant when it was only too obvious the US had cut him off at the knees by bringing peace to the Mideast, people would have been able to see clearly that frankly, my dear, no one give a darn anymore about Palestine.
• This is why Iran's latest, most blatant, most crude ploy on Israel will fail - in truth, it already has.
• Means and Methods The people of Iran are, by an overwhelming majority, victims of the mullahs. Raining nuclear fire, or conventional death and destruction, on them to bring about regime change is immoral. America must announce, without equivocation, that even if it takes five times as long, regime change will not be brought about at the expense of innocent Iranians.
• America must do something it has not traditionally done well, and that is subversion. A declared independent Kurdistan and a declared independent Baluchistan are two critical steps that need to be taken in 2006 and will go a long way toward gripping the mullahs in an every tightening noose.
• But What About Turkey and Pakistan? Well, what about them? Of all the oppressed people in the world today, the Kurds have the best case for an independent state. The cold war is gone and over. Turkey does not need to be appeased to keep it as an ally. But what about the concern that we must not aggravate fundamentalism in Turkey?
• Our reply: where's the connection?
• Then there is Baluchistan. An independent Baluch state could spell the end of Pakistan. Here we have to speak frankly, even if our Pakistani friends, and we have many, take offense. Pakistan was not created by any justification that would pass muster today. It came into existence by fraud and collusion between a certain segment of British imperialism - please note we say a certain segment, the British as a whole were not to blame - and corrupt Muslim leaders claiming to speak for the subcontinent's Muslims. Pakistan is not just a failed state, it is one who's continued existence poses grave dangers for the west. Pakistan is destined to fail anyway, and once Kashmir is separated de facto from Pakistan, the country's disintegration - which began in 1971 - will come to its logical end. Better the US manage the process of change than to fall victim to it.
• Easy Enough For You To Say is the retort our Pakistani friends and critics will give. You are an Indian, and the breakup of Pakistan will be solely to the benefit of your country.
• This may sound odd to Pakistanis, but the last thing the Indians want is another 150 million Muslims within their borders. Even if Delhi has to send the Indian Army to guarantee an independent Pakistan, albeit one composed of West Punjab and Sindh, India will make sure Pakistan survives. Kashmir is going - and India is equally a loser - and this time around you cannot stop Baluchistan from seceding as you did at least once before, in 1972-76.
• This may give our Pakistani friends and critics no comfort, but we, at least, read the tea leaves of the subcontinent to foretell a very different India is coming just as a very different Pakistan is coming.. we can discuss this at another time.
• The point here is that your editor is speaking from his Washington viewpoint, not his Delhi viewpoint. We are talking about what is in America's best interests. And just as an independent Kurdistan is vital to America in its war against the mullahs, so is an independent Baluchistan. Iraq is going to be reordered whether anyone likes it or not. The process of reordering this part of the world will continue.

0230 GMT December 13, 2005

· Adding Insult to Injury The impending drawdown of US and British troops in Iraq is gaining momentum. The Times of London has given quite specific details that will bring down UK forces from 8000 to 5000 in the spring of 2006, as starters. UK will hand two of its 4 provinces back to the Iraqis. Meanwhile, US has already handed two south central provinces to the Iraqis, Najaf and Karbala, and is preparing a reduction of forces in the North and North Center. The 30,000 reinforcements sent for the election are, of course, not going to be replaced, but as of now it seems certain another 30,000 troops are to pull out by the end of spring, leaving 100,000 - and counting down - troops in Iraq.

· So the Iraqis are rejoicing, right?

· Wrong. All of a sudden, 90% of Iraqis don't want a troop withdrawal at this time.

· Our reaction? Really Tough Cow Pies, citizens of Iraq. So first you yell and scream holy murder about being occupied; and now that you are being deoccupied, you decide that you love the Americans so much you are going top hug them and squeeze them and kiss them and make them yours for ever?

· Goodness Gracious Us, you all are actually going to have to make your country work now, instead of sitting around going complain, whine, moan, and weep.

· And guess what? From the performance of your security forces, our guess is you'll do just fine. Call it tough love.

· To Our Friends Concerned About A Precipitate Withdrawal Please do not be concerned. US is not cutting and running. There are close on 200,000 Iraqi security forces doing a job ranging from not good enough to terrific. By end of 2006 there will be over 350,000. The US can afford to, and should, cut down its forces to below 60,000 in 2007. The residual force of 30-40,000 will stay for years. This is not cutting and running.

· Sydney Riots Seem To Have Died Down after a second day of violence. Rampaging white and Arab youths seem to be equally responsible for the violence, which included smash-and-run attacks on cars, stores, and individuals.

· The state government has recalled parliament to ask for tougher laws to deal with the violence.

· The Australian, a leading national newspaper, at least seems to be trying to keep down the temperature with minimal reporting using non-sensational language. Read today's editorial http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,17545285%255E601,00.html to get a handle on the manner in which the australian is handling the crisis.

· Pity Poor Syria plagued as it is by the misrule of morons. Another anti-Syrian politicians has been murdered, just after he returned home from Paris, where he had been living in fear of his life.

· This kind of continued idiocy at a time the UN is getting closer and closer to pinning complicity in the murder of the former PM on Damascus indicates only one thing: the murderers are getting desperate to the point they have lost rationality. They may be figuring "may as well hang for 10 murders as for one, and there's still a chance we can intimidate the Lebanese government", but all they are doing is making sure they will hang for at least one of the 10 murders when they might have escaped when there was only one murder.

The Business of Strategic Spying as opposed to what we call tactical spying is the subject of our attention today.

· For this readers should thank reader James Daley, who wrote to ask why we were sure Iran did not yet have a bomb. When we replied CIA estimates, he asked a legitimate question, which was basically along the lines of a polite "is this the CIA which confirmed Iraq's WMD?"

· Tactical spying is a very simple and straight forward business. Has the adversary shifted an anti-tank missile battalion into Sector XYZ? What is the name of the division commander of Division ABC? How many days of 120mm tank gun shells does the adversary have? And so on. Your editor's experience lies in an even simpler and more straightforward business, which is orders of battle confined to units and formations. For example, is there a third Pakistani armored division, and if there is, where is it, and what is its formation number and the brigade designations? This type of information changes very little, and you are not being asked to give your subjective assessment of how good the division is, what strength is it manned at, and so on.

· Strategic spying, the entire field of which your editor heartily dislikes, is a very complicated business. But we're going to try and explain it.

· Point the First: There are Two CIAs we all talk about THE CIA, but there are actually two quite separate agencies that happen to bureaucratically function under the same roof.

· The first is the Directorate of Operations and the second is the Directorate of Intelligence. To be hugely simplistic, think in these terms: DO goes out and gets the information, DI assesses it.

· Before we proceed, our readers need to know that for some reason everyone is focused on the 30 year rule when it comes to declassifying documents. Less well known is the 50 year rule, and even less well known is the "We're going to keep this classified for as long as we think neccessary" rule.

· Point the Second: The DO Works in a Shadow World That sounds kind of obvious, but we are talking of something else. Think back to the type of dream that we all frequently have: the world is in shadow, you can't see anything clearly, and you are wandering around trying to figure out what the heck is going on based on a few clues that can become very insubstantial very quickly.

· So, for example, suddenly you learn your family is in great danger, and you're racing around trying to find a telephone, and you're dialing the number and no one is picking up, then you realize you're dialing home whereas the family must be at the vacation lodge, except you cant remember the area code, and then you find the telephone handset is not connected to anything, but if you don't get in touch with your family they're going to die and so on.

· So here you've been tasked to find out where Iran is in its nuclear program. But there are 10 absolutely critical parameters you must have detailed information on before you can say anything with any certainty, and there are 100 important factors, and on top of that 1000 other factors. If you are going to give an unequivocal answer, you need to get everything right.

· Instead, what do you have? Bits and pieces of information which may appear so unrelated that you really don't have a good chance to figure out what's going on.

· Worse: by the time a critical piece of information gets to you - such as "Iran's 123 centrifuge design has a critical flaw that is causing U240 to build up to unacceptable levels during the enrichment process" - Iran could have solved that problem. Or the test cascade built around the 123 design could have suffered a major setback because rotors in half the cascade were not machined properly. Or someone backed a fork-lift into the wrong corner and wham, your cascade is shut down. Or miracle of miracles, some ingenious young engineers managed to get it back up within weeks. Or you lost so much enriched material that you had to start all over again.

· Even worse: people lie to you.

· As bad: your agent gets caught and decides having all his nails and teeth pulled without anesthetic is not worth the hassle of the pathetic sums you are paying him.

· As bad: your agent doesn't know he's lying to you. He thinks he's telling you the truth, but what he doesn't know if that Iran has decided to proceed with the 125 design; he works on the 123 design cascade, and for a variety of reasons the Iranians have decided to keep the test going.

· Its been known to happen: Dr. AQ Khan of Pakistan is the most egregious example of this. The head of the program is himself lying to the government, so you've got the private secretary to the deputy Prime Minister in your pocket, but the stuff the private secretary is getting is near worthless.

· We think you get the point: there are tens, hundreds, thousands of things you need to know, you will know very few of them, most of the time you wont even know how you know them.

· Point the Third: DO Hands Off to DI So periodically, DO hands off information to DI, whose job is to analyze it. Now the fun really starts.

· We'd all like to believe analysis is an objective affair. It actually is a highly subjective affair. You have people with their own biases, pet theories, positions to defend, egos to protect and so on. People will consciously or unconsciously add, subtract, divide, and multiply "facts" - we do Austin Powers here because those "facts" can be pretty shaky to begin with.

· Point the Fourth: DI Hands Off to the DCI You can have the most scrupulously neutral operatives and analysts, and things can still get very messed up. The Director Central Intelligence is not interested in reading a 100 page report with 500 footnotes and 50 major qualifications simply on the question of if Iran has a test cascade operational or not. You have to summarize it in a couple of paragraphs, and remember, information/analysis is being summarized at every step, so for complexity you are going to every greater simplicity.

· Its a bit like starting with a tip of one of Jesus's fingers from the Pieta, and then handing over to the DCI a chunk of marble the size of a truck and telling him: "You wanted the truth of the Peita, Sir here you go. Somewhere in this you'll see the Peita."

· Point the Fifth: The Horror Does Not End There The DCI hies off to the National Security Council with his truck-sized lump of marble, and what does he find? Half a dozen other intelligence agencies or groups having significant input sitting there, ready to rip him to pieces because (a) they cant stand his face, (b) they want to make his agency look like idiots, so that (c) the president will promote them and demote the DCI. The DCI equally would love to stick stilettos into the other people, and not between their ribs either.

· Point the Sixth: Now the Fun Really Starts All the ladies and gentlemen present are facing a presidential team that has its own agenda to push. So if the agenda is Sa-Dam Has WMD, all the heads of the agencies are under terrific pressure. Start bringing up adverse evidence? Start stuttering that the situation is a bit complex? Insist you are on the team and can be trusted to stay on the team? Big surprise: you choose the last option.

· We could continue, but you get the point.

· The Process Depends Entirely on the Integrity of its Parts By the way, did we mention that even in the DO and DI you will have groups of people each believing different things and pushing different agendas?

· The process can, however, still work, sort of, if everyone, from top to bottom, is straight arrow.

· In the Washington of today, the chances of this happening are zero.

· In Other Words, most of the information you are getting is worthless, in practical terms.

· So Back to the CIA In your editor's admittedly limited experience, the lower down an operative or an analyst is in the pecking order, the more likely he is to be objective. And even today you find senior executives of enormous personal integrity that will not twist information, or lie to their seniors, or put their signatures on information/analysis they believe to be fraudulent. Alas, such men and women are becoming fewer by the year - they don't even make it to senior positions.

· The CIA and WMD Your editor's information is that the CIA, even at the highest levels, did not believe the case was proved. But not only was the CIA told to say it was proved, when things went wrong, the President's people told the CIA chief he'd have to take the hit - the President was not about to tell the country the responsibility was his - and so the CIA chief loyally fell on his sword.

· The Odd Thing Is that if you were looking at the top level files yourself, you would probably have accepted the case for WMD! But more on this another day.

0230 GMT December 12, 2005

· Iraq Prepares For Its Vote All those who said America cannot export democracy to Iraq, kindly proceed to woodshed and whack yourselves 100 times on the behind. Even the Sunnis who boycotted the constitutional elections are working to get out the vote.

· It didn't take the Iraqis and the Afghans long to take to democracy, did it? And why should it have? Democracy is natural to the human condition.

· When you put a man who has never seen a TV in front of one and hand him the remote, how long does it take for him to get to the Superbowl game, and to be yelling to his wife: "Woman, get me the beer and pretzels"? According to studies we have seen, the average is 23 minutes, all the more remarkable given that men who have never heard about TVs and remotes are unlikely to have heard of beer and pretzels either.

· Racial Riots in Australia after Lebanese kids beat up two lifeguards. We're not sure why they did this, but there has been trouble before with Mideast immigrants men being rude to women on the beaches, and we don't have to go into the details as to what that means.

· Australian youths, almost all white, reacted by rioting, attacking with bottles and other objects two women who looked Middle Eastern - they were saved by the police - and then attacking two men on a train who looked Middle Eastern.

· Middle Eastern immigrants retaliated in their own ways, including burning an Australian flag.

· Okay, my Ozzie friends, a message from your editor. Can you leave the women out of this? Middle Eastern women are the real victims of their men and its not right to be attacking women for any reason.

· Now a message also for my Lebanese friends. Australia is not America. I'd suggest you not burn the Australian flag, and if you are too stupid to understand what I'm saying, then - sorry about that - you deserve what's coming to you.

· Meanwhile, Back To The Great Robert Murdoch Reader marcopetroni tells us that there is a hullabaloo brewing because a Saudi billionaire who is an investors in Mr. Murdoch's company and a friend of the media mogul, has given a interview in which he boasted of getting Mr. Murdoch to change Fox News's reporting on the French riots. The perspective favored by this billionaire was that the riots were against poverty and inequality, and were not Muslim riots.

· A Saudi billionaire, Mr. Robert Murdoch - the media baron with the lowest morals of any in a business that has no morals to begin with - and Fox News. What do you expect, folks? The scent of rare and beautiful roses? And we say that as conservatives way to the right of just about anyone else.

· Pravda, 4-D, the Indigo People, and 2012 Confused by our headline? Don't be. Pravda says a special breed of children is being born with such powerful immune systems they cannot be affected by disease. 95% of children born after 1994 are indigo children. That is step one.

· Step two is that in 2012 the sun and the earth will be in a straight line with the center of the galaxy.

· Step three is that alignment will open a sort of window, open only to indigo people, in which they will be able to transition from our 3-D world to a 4-D world.

· Questions we have of Pravda. The sun and the earth line up each year at all points of the earth's passage around the sun. The earth is 8 light minutes from the sun, so for practical purpose, its one and and the same body. You can draw a line from the sun to the center of the galaxy, 30,000 light years away, at any time you choose. We are in alignment with the center of the galaxy at all times. So what's special about 2012?

· Next, sorry to tell you, Pravda old buddies, but we exist in a 4-D world right now, the fourth dimension being time.

· Last, please do not be selfish: tell us where you're getting the good stuff from so we too can discover indigo children, cosmic alignments, and other interesting worlds.

What We Have Been Up To - Some Selective News

· There is very little news on the internet today, so this may be a good time to tell you about some of the things we've been doing at Orbat.com.

· The main project underway is the long deferred Content Manage System, which has been contracted for and is being customized in - where else - India. Your editor is a loyal American at heart and lost a year and a half trying to get the job done in the States. The cheapest quote he got was $7000 without support; a highly recommended Indian shop is doing the work for - yes, this is the real figure - $432.

· We are also getting a pay-per-view system done for contemporary orbats, so people can pay for just what they want instead of buying a whole book, and do so simply by logging on and using their credit card. They don't have to wait on us to do anything.

· A third module being worked on will allow readers to order individual history articles: they will browse, pay, and receive the articles over the internet.

· A fourth module has to do with Tiger Lily, our publishing division. This will permit collaborative work between people working together on books, regardless of where they are in the world, and permit the editor - Robert McArthur in case we have not introduced him to you to stay on top of manuscripts from the time we give the author/s the go ahead to write them.  A tiny shop in India will do the layout and conversions necessary for the printers and E-books.

· Orbat.com is now in its 6th year, and while some may feel a sense of satisfaction that we have survived for so long, the truth is we are very, very far from where we wanted to be. Some of the reasons for this are inherent in the structure of the company: it is a zero overhead, completely virtual, flat management structure organization, which is years ahead of its time. The only person we are aware of who has come anywhere near our operational philosophy - which I should explain to you some time - is Linus Torvald of Linux fame, and of course, his organization is about as old fashioned as its possible to get in the internet age.

· The very innovativeness of the organization and the way we do things has created enormous problems, particularly as we have had to work with zero money. And when I say zero, I mean it. anyone who works with us can verify that.

· The inevitable mistakes have proved to be a burden. We lost $700 on one project where we did not take the money in advance for the work done. We lost $1000 on purchase of information - your editor's instincts were screaming not to go with the deal but he went ahead anyway. The information was definitely worth it for someone - just not us, we could have gotten it just as well for $50. We lost $1000 on the first CMS where the developer did not come through. Recently we paid $1700 for two months advertising on a well-known internet source, for our ad to appear on every single page in the first position. The ad generated $300 in sales. Okay, so we learned valuable lessons - in the ad case, that our product does not sell via ads, something your editor had suspected all along. But given your editor's very long experience of the world, none of these mistakes was an unavoidable one. When you work with as little money as we do, losing $1700 on something unproductive is a huge loss.

· We have also lost a number of very good people due to burnout. They simply worked too long and too hard without the promised payoff - which was not much, but sufficient to make these people feel okay, so they were killing themselves with overwork, but at least they got something in return. Our History and Soviet projects are both stalled because of burnout; we lost a valuable contemporary correspondent who has made clear he never wants to hear the word "orbat" again. Our Africa south of the Sahara correspondent who had helped make our sections on those countries better than anyone else's dropped out. Luckily, your editor was able to cover - but at the cost of getting further into debt because your editor wasn't doing his paid work!

· Against that, we have proved to ourselves our organizational model does work, the contemporary orbats database is in great shape and is growing better day by day, and we are starting to get noticed by People Who Matter. There is a lot more, but we must plead company secrets and not talk about that. We have no hesitation in sharing our mistakes. But for other things, we have to be careful. Jane's World Armies pays more for office supplies than our total revenues for 2005. So one day people will be saying "Jane's World What?" but that day hasn't come yet.

· One of the nice things is that our organization is set up in such a way it cannot be penetrated by a competitor. Today, none of our competitors have the slightest interest in penetrating us because they don't even acknowledge we are competitors. This is not through blindness on their part, but because we are akin to the period at the end of their financial statements. Nonetheless, the organization was set up in a way that from the first it had its complete form, sort of like an embryo cell contains the form of the entire organism. One day people will want to try and penetrate, and they wont be able to do.

· You cannot steal any secrets from us because we have no secrets to steal: everything we do is completely open. Of course, there are little tricks. The CIA can go in to get an orbat from country X, and while they may pay little for that orbat itself - people are ready to sell out their countries for very little money-  the organization the CIA needs to send someone to buy that orbat is huge and costly. When we buy an orbat, firstly we pay a tiny fraction of what the CIA does, and secondly we have no organization to support. The tricks cannot be stolen from us because they reside solely in the editor's head.

· In fact, we have offered to the CIA that we'll get them 90% of the orbat information they get for a 1% to 10% of their present cost. Do you think the CIA bothered replying? Of course not.

· But they will, or your editor's name is not John Smith.

0230 GMT December 12, 2005

· Iraq Prepares For Its Vote All those who said America cannot export democracy to Iraq, kindly proceed to woodshed and whack yourselves 100 times on the behind. Even the Sunnis who boycotted the constitutional elections are working to get out the vote.

· It didn't take the Iraqis and the Afghans long to take to democracy, did it? And why should it have? Democracy is natural to the human condition.

· When you put a man who has never seen a TV in front of one and hand him the remote, how long does it take for him to get to the Superbowl game, and to be yelling to his wife: "Woman, get me the beer and pretzels"? According to studies we have seen, the average is 23 minutes, all the more remarkable given that men who have never heard about TVs and remotes are unlikely to have heard of beer and pretzels either.

· Racial Riots in Australia after Lebanese kids beat up two lifeguards. We're not sure why they did this, but there has been trouble before with Mideast immigrants men being rude to women on the beaches, and we don't have to go into the details as to what that means.

· Australian youths, almost all white, reacted by rioting, attacking with bottles and other objects two women who looked Middle Eastern - they were saved by the police - and then attacking two men on a train who looked Middle Eastern.

· Middle Eastern immigrants retaliated in their own ways, including burning an Australian flag.

· Okay, my Ozzie friends, a message from your editor. Can you leave the women out of this? Middle Eastern women are the real victims of their men and its not right to be attacking women for any reason.

· Now a message also for my Lebanese friends. Australia is not America. I'd suggest you not burn the Australian flag, and if you are too stupid to understand what I'm saying, then - sorry about that - you deserve what's coming to you.

· Meanwhile, Back To The Great Robert Murdoch Reader marcopetroni tells us that there is a hullabaloo brewing because a Saudi billionaire who is an investors in Mr. Murdoch's company and a friend of the media mogul, has given a interview in which he boasted of getting Mr. Murdoch to change Fox News's reporting on the French riots. The perspective favored by this billionaire was that the riots were against poverty and inequality, and were not Muslim riots.

· A Saudi billionaire, Mr. Robert Murdoch - the media baron with the lowest morals of any in a business that has no morals to begin with - and Fox News. What do you expect, folks? The scent of rare and beautiful roses? And we say that as conservatives way to the right of just about anyone else.

· Pravda, 4-D, the Indigo People, and 2012 Confused by our headline? Don't be. Pravda says a special breed of children is being born with such powerful immune systems they cannot be affected by disease. 95% of children born after 1994 are indigo children. That is step one.

· Step two is that in 2012 the sun and the earth will be in a straight line with the center of the galaxy.

· Step three is that alignment will open a sort of window, open only to indigo people, in which they will be able to transition from our 3-D world to a 4-D world.

· Questions we have of Pravda. The sun and the earth line up each year at all points of the earth's passage around the sun. The earth is 8 light minutes from the sun, so for practical purpose, its one and and the same body. You can draw a line from the sun to the center of the galaxy, 30,000 light years away, at any time you choose. We are in alignment with the center of the galaxy at all times. So what's special about 2012?

· Next, sorry to tell you, Pravda old buddies, but we exist in a 4-D world right now, the fourth dimension being time.

· Last, please do not be selfish: tell us where you're getting the good stuff from so we too can discover indigo children, cosmic alignments, and other interesting worlds.

What We Have Been Up To - Some Selective News

· There is very little news on the internet today, so this may be a good time to tell you about some of the things we've been doing at Orbat.com.

· The main project underway is the long deferred Content Manage System, which has been contracted for and is being customized in - where else - India. Your editor is a loyal American at heart and lost a year and a half trying to get the job done in the States. The cheapest quote he got was $7000 without support; a highly recommended Indian shop is doing the work for - yes, this is the real figure - $432.

· We are also getting a pay-per-view system done for contemporary orbats, so people can pay for just what they want instead of buying a whole book, and do so simply by logging on and using their credit card. They don't have to wait on us to do anything.

· A third module being worked on will allow readers to order individual history articles: they will browse, pay, and receive the articles over the internet.

· A fourth module has to do with Tiger Lily, our publishing division. This will permit collaborative work between people working together on books, regardless of where they are in the world, and permit the editor - Robert McArthur in case we have not introduced him to you to stay on top of manuscripts from the time we give the author/s the go ahead to write them.  A tiny shop in India will do the layout and conversions necessary for the printers and E-books.

· Orbat.com is now in its 6th year, and while some may feel a sense of satisfaction that we have survived for so long, the truth is we are very, very far from where we wanted to be. Some of the reasons for this are inherent in the structure of the company: it is a zero overhead, completely virtual, flat management structure organization, which is years ahead of its time. The only person we are aware of who has come anywhere near our operational philosophy - which I should explain to you some time - is Linus Torvald of Linux fame, and of course, his organization is about as old fashioned as its possible to get in the internet age.

· The very innovativeness of the organization and the way we do things has created enormous problems, particularly as we have had to work with zero money. And when I say zero, I mean it. anyone who works with us can verify that.

· The inevitable mistakes have proved to be a burden. We lost $700 on one project where we did not take the money in advance for the work done. We lost $1000 on purchase of information - your editor's instincts were screaming not to go with the deal but he went ahead anyway. The information was definitely worth it for someone - just not us, we could have gotten it just as well for $50. We lost $1000 on the first CMS where the developer did not come through. Recently we paid $1700 for two months advertising on a well-known internet source, for our ad to appear on every single page in the first position. The ad generated $300 in sales. Okay, so we learned valuable lessons - in the ad case, that our product does not sell via ads, something your editor had suspected all along. But given your editor's very long experience of the world, none of these mistakes was an unavoidable one. When you work with as little money as we do, losing $1700 on something unproductive is a huge loss.

· We have also lost a number of very good people due to burnout. They simply worked too long and too hard without the promised payoff - which was not much, but sufficient to make these people feel okay, so they were killing themselves with overwork, but at least they got something in return. Our History and Soviet projects are both stalled because of burnout; we lost a valuable contemporary correspondent who has made clear he never wants to hear the word "orbat" again. Our Africa south of the Sahara correspondent who had helped make our sections on those countries better than anyone else's dropped out. Luckily, your editor was able to cover - but at the cost of getting further into debt because your editor wasn't doing his paid work!

· Against that, we have proved to ourselves our organizational model does work, the contemporary orbats database is in great shape and is growing better day by day, and we are starting to get noticed by People Who Matter. There is a lot more, but we must plead company secrets and not talk about that. We have no hesitation in sharing our mistakes. But for other things, we have to be careful. Jane's World Armies pays more for office supplies than our total revenues for 2005. So one day people will be saying "Jane's World What?" but that day hasn't come yet.

· One of the nice things is that our organization is set up in such a way it cannot be penetrated by a competitor. Today, none of our competitors have the slightest interest in penetrating us because they don't even acknowledge we are competitors. This is not through blindness on their part, but because we are akin to the period at the end of their financial statements. Nonetheless, the organization was set up in a way that from the first it had its complete form, sort of like an embryo cell contains the form of the entire organism. One day people will want to try and penetrate, and they wont be able to do.

· You cannot steal any secrets from us because we have no secrets to steal: everything we do is completely open. Of course, there are little tricks. The CIA can go in to get an orbat from country X, and while they may pay little for that orbat itself - people are ready to sell out their countries for very little money-  the organization the CIA needs to send someone to buy that orbat is huge and costly. When we buy an orbat, firstly we pay a tiny fraction of what the CIA does, and secondly we have no organization to support. The tricks cannot be stolen from us because they reside solely in the editor's head.

· In fact, we have offered to the CIA that we'll get them 90% of the orbat information they get for a 1% to 10% of their present cost. Do you think the CIA bothered replying? Of course not.

· But they will, or your editor's name is not John Smith.

0230 GMT December 11, 2005

· Israel Further Ratchets Up Pressure on Iran as "military sources" reveal that Prime Minister Sharon has given his military the go ahead to move forward with a preemptive strike against Iran's N-installations in March 2006. That is the date Iran will supposedly have enough enriched uranium for one bomb 2-4 years down the line.

· We respectfully disagree, Iran will have no such thing in March 2006, but then it isn't Washington that first on Iran's "Nuke 'Em" list. We've said previously Iran ahs every right to develop N-weapons; by the same token, Israel has every right to preempt.

· Right now all this talk of preemption is just a game with multiple objectives. One is to force the US to do the preemption at a time just about no one in Washington is prepared to take Israel's word for anything, after the WMD fiasco. In 1991, the US did warn Israel to sit out the war and let the US do the work, on the theory Israel's "help" would only inflame the Arab world and make the US job in Iraq harder. So Israel immediately and happily stood down, and had the cheek to keep exclaiming through the war: "America, you're doing a lousy job of protecting us, someone hold us back, we're going in".

· After the war the Israelis had the further cheek to say: "See, Patriot is lousy, world, buy our Arrow" - which happens to be almost as much an American missile as an Israeli one and is in a completely different class - and has never been tested under battle conditions."

· We Don't Think The US Will Fall For The Israeli Trap Again Now, personally we admire the Israelis for the way they try and get away with the maximum. But they have to understand there are very few people left in America who are going to fall for this "hold us back or we're going to punch the ayatollahs" approach a second time.

· Moreover, there is a growing anger in the US with the EU failure to bring Iran to heel, There is a faction - not in the majority right now but we believe it is growing - that is saying: "Let the Israelis and Euros handle this. They'll be the first to lose if Iran goes nuclear, and its time the Euros started looking after themselves. We've got our ABM defense in place and its getting stronger day by day."

· The Issue of the ABM Interceptor's Warhead We've said this before, and readers have disagreed with us, but we'll say it again. Arrow is designed to take a nuclear warhead if necessary and so are US ABMs. That changes the dynamics of intercepting ICBMs quite considerably. Wait till Iran stages a test, you will not see anyone in America objecting to a US breakout of the test-ban treaties for fine-tuning testing of an ABM interceptor warhead.

· If there's an N-warhead for the ABM interceptor and quite like for Standard 3 as well, why is the US going through all the agony of trying to whack an incoming warhead via direct hit, which surely has to be about the most complex engineering task today?

· Well, the closer you can get your kinetic kill vehicle, the smaller the N-warhead has to be. There's a lot of advantages to not lighting up the upper atmospheres with 1 MT explosions.

· Please don't think we are giving you a complete explanation of the whys: the subject is very complex, very political, with huge sums of money already spent and at stake, and all we're touching is one small part of the issue.

· In 1999, incidentally, when the US was telling the Russians it was going to break out of the ABM treaty, it gave the Russians some figures for anticipated kills with non-nuclear warheads. You can read one document at http://www.fas.org/nuke/control/abmt/text/000119-abmt1.htm, it suggests 4 to 10 interceptors per incoming missile with target decoys. That is without the second tier Standard 3 and the  THAADS, which is being called by some a point defense system, but has a maximum range of 250 km. Confusing.

· Only in America So there's this murderer, set to be executed for his crime. He has an IQ of 70. No problem as far as the editor is concerned, but big problem as far as the anti-death penalty advocates are concerned. AT IQ 70, obviously the man cant tell right from wrong and shouldn't be executed. More the reason to get on with it, we'd day, but let's leave that alone.

· So yesterday we read a letter in the newspaper, saying the reason the man has an IQ of 70 is that he shot himself in the head after he shot a policeman. The policeman died, our friend lived, albeit with diminished IQ.

· Anywhere in the world the people who argued for the man would be considered outrageously out of line. Not in America, where it is now accepted to twist facts, make up facts, suppress facts, and outright lie to make your case.

· And this makes one more reason Americans are in such a bad mood, constantly, about authority, and one more reason they are less and less inclined to listen to each other. Once someone starts lying, trust goes; once trust goes, discourse is not possible.

0230 GMT December 10, 2005

· NATO Approves Afghan Troop Boost to permit US to reduce its contingent and to focus on East Afghanistan. NATO will take over from the US in South Afghanistan. A UK brigade will form the core of the new force.

· Our comment: About time. NATO has been getting a free pass on Afghanistan with its nominal contributions. Afghanistan is important to the world, not just to the US.

· As for why the world is not in Afghanistan, because of local considerations, three countries that would be most interested in sending peacekeeping forces, India, Pakistan, and Russia, are not eligible; ditto PRC and central Asian republics. The last in any case are very short of troops that would meet the standards needed for Afghan duty. So the burden must fall on NATO.

· And while 6,000 additional troops is an excellent start, lets not forget that Africa too needs NATO forces. African troops, almost entirely trained by the US, have been performing in sterling fashion, but they are light infantry without proper logistical backing. One day the 5 regional African Union brigades will be ready for duty; yet, again, that will just be a start. NATO must fill the gap for now. There are - what? - about a million NATO troops aside from US forces? Is it too much to ask 10,000 be committed for Africa duty?

· Come on NATO: some of you have old blood debts to pay from the colonial era. This is a good time to start.

· Robert Mugabe Bores the World Again At Orbat.com, we have a simple rule. Being an idiot is allowed, as long as one is an amusing idiot. Boring idiots are not allowed, and Mr. Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe is being terrifically boring.

· After a UN envoy issued a statement expressing concern about the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Zimbabwe, Mr. Mugabe said the envoy was Norwegian, so he didn't speak English well. Further, he was an agent of the UK. Still further, if anyone needed to be tried for humanitarian crimes, first must be Australia for wiping out its indigenous population.

· We confess we were a bit taken aback at this venomous attack against the poor Ozzies, who try and offend no one and prefer to mind their own business. But apparently whereas much of the world has chosen to ignore what's happening in Zimbabwe, the Australians have been among Mr. Mugabe's severest critics. Good for them.

· Now, we at Orbat.com do not believe in being mature than the person we're discussing. Its pretty immature of Mr. Mugabe to attack the UN representative's English skills - which actually happen to be excellent, but obviously were a bit too sophisticated for Mr. Mugabe. So we'll counter by saying, the UN rep speaks better English than Mr. Mugabe speaks Norwegian.

· As for who is to be be first at the tribunal. The Australians are guilty of crimes of the 19th Century, for which they are trying to make restitution. Mr. Mugabe, however, is wiping out his people right now, so clearly he needs to face the tribunal before the Australians.

· Mr. Mugabe says the humanitarian crisis in his country is no worse than in many other countries in Africa. From this he draws the conclusion "you can leave me alone".

· Problem: few other African leaders have deliberately pushed their countries into bankruptcy and starvation to stay in power. In fact, few leaders anywhere have. The darling Child of Swans in DPRK comes to mind. Readers more knowledgeable than orbat.com can perhaps name others? Mr. Mugabe, we suspect, will still be a standout.

· Second problem: a lot of African leaders need to go. Why focus on Mr. Mugabe? Because he insists on making a blithering ass of himself each time he opens his mouth. He's asking for it. And anyway, one has to start somewhere.

· Now, instead of arrest warrants for Mr. Mugabe, some bright spark at the UN actually invited him to Rome for a world conference on hunger. When they start issuing arrest warrants, may we suggest one for the FAO people who invited Mr. Mugabe? If leaders are to be held accountable for their crimes, so should civil servants who abet the leaders.

· Another Example of How The World Has Changed 50% of Latin and Central  Americans have cell phones. But: each to their own. 80% of Latin and 90% Central American cellphones use prepaid cards for economy; incoming calls are free. Data from http://www.lapress.org/Article.asp?lanCode=1&artCode=4485.

· The US now has more cellphone lines than land lines.

· In India, telephones are still a rarity, with about 10 lines per hundred people But cellphones have already overtaken land lines as of 2004, and cell-line growth is very rapid: in one year, 2004-05, cell lines grew by 56%.

· The world is expected to have 2 billion cell phones by 2006, one for every 3 people.

· Your editor actually has a cell phone. He keeps it in the car for emergencies.

· Okay, our readers will say, very interesting, but what does this have to do with strategic matters? Well, the more phones, and the more camera phones, the faster news travels, and the harder it becomes for repression to work effectively.

0230 GMT December 9, 2005

· Venezuela Oil Comes to the Bronx and if we go by the Washington Post report, no one getting the benefit of 45% under-market price is doing other than saying "Chaavy, we love you." Major propaganda score here by Mr. Chavez, who visited the Bronx and saw the soul of the people. Knowing the Bronx personality, your editor thinks its more likely the people of the Bronx will say: "You wanna see our soles? Here, take a look at the bottom of our shoes." Still, they appreciate Mr. Chavez's gift, and are not the least dismayed its a big fat stick in eye of the US Government. In fact, the US Government also doesn't care its been insulted. You cannot demand of someone else that they respect themselves.

· Saddam Co-Defendant Complains of Jail Conditions This trial is generating quite a few laughs. A co-defendant charges his jail conditions are worse than they were in Saddam's time.

· Our question to this gent: "So you have first hand experience of the jails you sent people to when you ruled? Do share the details with us." Its clear to us this lot is so terrified of being hung they have lost their minds and cannot put two rational sentences together. Not that we personally blame them: we too would be terrified if what awaits these gents awaited us.

· Iran President Wants Israel Moved to Europe Sometimes when a manifest fool speaks, we may miss valid parts of his message because we are so focused on his idiocies. So it is with the President of Iran, who has - not for the first time - shown he is an uneducated person. He denies the Holocaust took place; unfortunately for him, the Germans kept meticulous records of their genocide and these are available to anyone who wants to look.

· Nonetheless, the Iranian president did ask a question which westerners must understand is asked all the time among the Muslim peoples.

· Given the Holocaust took place, it was done by the Germans and Austrians. The millions killed were European Jews. So why was a state not formed from the territory of the guilty nations, and the Jewish people given their secure homeland under international protection? If you are a westerner, ask yourself: do I have a reasonable answer beyond saying "might is right?"

· Cope India 2005 Someone has finally gotten fed up with the egregious claims of superiority of Indian Air Force aircraft/pilots made not by the Indian Air Force, but by its uninformed boosters.

· Trent Telenko, writing in windsofchange.net of December 5 has a number of points, in case you are interested in the exercise.

· He notes the US AWACS was playing neutral party and voice cuing fighters from both sides in the air-to-air part of the exercise; so in a real conflict, is the US AWACS going to be playing neutral party? Next, the Americans took a decision not to display their Link 16 capabilities - that's why the voice cuing, which American pilots are not trained for since its not used anymore. Equally important, the Americans decided on In Visual Range fights whereas US doctrine specifically says that given the US will be outnumbered, this is a No Gain affair. In real engagement, US aircraft will be firing several fire-and-forget missiles and leaving the area before anyone gets a lock on them.

· There's more if you want details, but your editor would like to add a couple of points. If the US pilots said they were "impressed" by the capabilities of Indian MIG-21s, MiG-27s, and MiG-29s, lets not take this as more than politeness. There is very little the US doesn't know about dogfighting against these aircraft. The US made clear what was valuable to them was learning how the Indians operated  - the aircraft are irrelevant.

· Next, the US wanted to get a close look at the Su-30 under near combat conditions, this is at least the second time the US has had the opportunity.

· Next, readers should remind themselves the dog fight part of the exercise was irrelevant to the main objectives, which concern rapid fly-into India to fight alongside the Indians, not against the Indians. Bit of a difference here.

· So supposing India had the money. Is anyone saying it would rather keep its MiG family than buy the latest fighters? And did anyone in India hear about something called the F-22 and F-35? Mr. Telenko points out that the Su-30 was designed after complete performance parameters of F-16s and F-15s were obtained by the Russians. The Su-30 is a response to these 1970s design aircraft.

· Last, we hope the Indian bloggers are getting money out of the US aircraft manufacturers. They have been arguing for years now that the poor old USAF, flying around in its antique F-15s and F-16s, is just cannon fodder for aircraft like the Su-30, and we need not just F-22/F-35, but even better planes. This is happening at a time when skeptics are saying: "There is no credible threat even against the F-15/16 so we need just a few F-22/F-35, if that."

· Meanwhile, folks, not to worry about PLAAF's 400 Su-30s or 800 or how many they deploy in the coming years. US air doctrine calls for a massive takedown of airfields, radars, communication systems etc using stealth aircraft and missiles before committing the fighter force to battle. It doesn't matter how good or bad the Su-30 is. The question is, how many will be flying after the counter-air phase - which the US can stretch to weeks if need be.

· Nonetheless, we do think its plain foolish for the US to rely on two 8 aircraft squadrons of B-2s. US needs 100 B-2s.

0230 GMT December 8, 2005

· UN Refuses Eritrea Order to Withdraw In a move that could signal a new chapter in UN peacekeeping operations, Mr. Kofi Anan has refused to accede to Eritrea's demand that UN observers be withdrawn from its side of the border with Ethiopia.

· Eritrea has been frustrated because of the slow pace at which the border issue is being resolved.

· Nonetheless, Mr. Anan's position, a first, shows the UN is determined to assert itself in keeping the peace between warring nations. His words have been quickly backed by the Security Council. The implication is that Eritrea will find itself under international sanctions if it fails to cancel the withdrawal order.

· We are delighted at Mr. Anan's stand. This is one of the most positive developments to have taken place on the international scene this decade.

· The last we checked, which was in late November, Ethiopia had one corps of 2 divisions on the border and had moved up, in early 2005, at least one additional corps HQ and 7 divisions in depth positions between 20-45 km of the border. This situation had not changed as of end November. This left Ethiopia with 5 divisions in other parts of the country including two in strategic reserve. These are our estimates

· Eritrea had most of its 22-23 brigades on the border or in immediate reserve, with one commando and mechanized brigades in strategic reserve. Of course, Eritrea has little depth along 60% of the border, between Senafe and Assab, an average of about 100 km. As such brigades could be retained in peacetime cantonments even at this time, so readers have to be careful with our figure of on the border and immediate reserve.

· So far there is no news of a general call-up of reserves.

· We believe the figures being given for deployments at the front - Ethiopia 150,000 and Eritrea 80,000 - are exaggerations and are more likely to be <50,000 for Ethiopia and about the same for Eritrea.

· Saddam Is Excused From Court on application from his lawyers; reasons not revealed by the presiding judge. The trial, however, continued. A two week recess was announced because of the forthcoming elections.

· US Republican Party Lucky in Its Enemies President Bush is trying to explain to America that progress is being made in Iraq. In the meantime, he has been aided in a major way by the out-of-control Chairman of the Democratic party, Mr. Howard Dean, who seems to have not just a personal death wish, but a deep longing to destroy his party. His latest is that the notion the US can win in Iraq is just plain wrong. Some members of his party are already saying comments like this are not helpful to the party, but no one seems to be able to shut up Mr. Dean.

· How Does One Define Victory? Did the US/Allies win World War I? One could argue they did not, because Act 2 followed within 19 years. Did the US win World War 2? One could say no. US troops are still in Japan and German, 60 years later, and the German threat was simply replaced by the Soviet threat. Did the US win anything in Korea? One could say no, because the US/UN managed only to restore the status quo ante, and American troops are still in Korea, 55 years later.

· At the same time, its not particularly useful to say "no". The world is a much better place today than it was 15, 50, and 60 years ago.

· We should keep the above in mind when we try and define victory in Iraq. To our mind, victory does not mean an end to the insurgency. The insurgency could well carry on for years more. Victory means a democratically elected government and democratic institutions growing stronger in a steady progression.

· Iraq may well require 10, 20, 50 years to be fully stable. But so what? If the US could commit itself to Germany and Japan and Korea for long decades, why cannot it do the same for Iraq? Iraq is just as important. Look at the Balkans. After 10 years some basic problems are just starting to get sorted out. No one is crying about defeat in the Balkans.

· Again, we need to be clear for our readers' sakes: we are not talking about the US fighting for 50 years in Iraq. We are saying US troops may need to retain some presence for 2-5 more years more - we can't see the xenophobic Iraqis agreeing to let US soldiers stay in Iraq for anything longer than 5 years.

· Is 1000 US dead a year sustainable indefinitely in Iraq? No, and nor should the US accept that figure, given how small its ground forces are, and how many others wars need to be fought. What figure is sustainable? We can't say where the Goldilocks Point lies.  But this we can say: the vast majority of Americans understand the US has to stay the course.

· Now that the military has laid down a withdrawal plan, and once the first troops start coming home, the domestic situation on the war will change dramatically.

· Of course, for many people, separating the war as an issue and Mr. Bush and company is issue is very difficult. They condemn the war because they cant stand Mr. Bush and Co. But, after all, Mr. Bush has to leave office in a little over two years. We hope a good consensus among the American people can be reached before then. If not, we'll all have to wait till after Mr.. Bush.

· The Gulf of Tonkin Revisited The official National Security Agency historian says that while the August 2 attack was real, there was no attack on August 4. American destroyers thought they were under attack, but the North Vietnamese were merely trying to recover their damaged boats.

· Six intercepted messages said August 4 was a second attack. But almost 10 times as many said it was not, or were ambiguous. Intelligence analysts played down the ambiguous/no reports and pushed the yes reports.

· The clear implication is that President Johnson declared "war" on  the basis of an attack that didn't happen.

· Now please excuse us while we go "HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!" very loudly and very forcefully.

· We want the historians and their disciples to grow up. To make our point, lets back up.

· For whatever reason, the US decided it wasn't going to let the north conquer the south. So US involvement since 1961 had been steadily climbing.

· For whatever reason, the north was not going to accept the 1954 border. So it had to step up its involvement to counter the US. And the US had to further step up its involvement to counter the north's counter, Etc.

· Does anyone believe that a direct US-North clash would be long in coming?

· If not the Gulf of Tonkin, there would have been another incident that would have convinced the US it had to play hardball. There is no way an escalation could have been avoided. If the US aid effort had started working, the north would have had to escalate anyway - just as it did. Then the US would have had to escalate anyway - just as it did.

· The Gulf of Tonkin, August 2 or August 4, was completely irrelevant to what was happening.

· That is why we advise historians to say: "Hmmm, that's interesting, there was no attack on August 4," and file that away as just one fact about the Vietnam War, among tens of thousands, that history has straightened out.

· This was a case of an irresistible force colliding with an immovable object.

· And look what happened in the end A nice big market for US exports, another developing country to invest in. For Vietnam capital inflows and an export market. Peace and friendship. Never, never, never underestimate the power of money.

· Which is why your editor was an advocate of using cash to win the war. Why spend money to buy bullets to kill the other guy thus getting him off the battlefield? Inefficient. Allow the market to operate, give him the money directly. Your editor cannot claim credit for the mode of thinking that led him to this conclusion. He learned the method from Edward De Bono's Po Think. And no, Po Think has nothing to do with toilets. Its just shorthand for Beyond Yes and No.

· For example, De Bono's solution to factories fouling rivers and streams was elegantly simply. Just pass legislation forcing factories to reverse intake and outflow pipes. They would discharge waste upstream, and pick up their water downstream. To survive the factories would have to clean up their waste water discharges. End of the problem.

0230 GMT December 7, 2005

· Oh Well, It Was Sort Of Interesting While It Lasted...We can end the discussion about CIA secret jails in Eastern Europe. They exist no more. Read http://www.powerlineblog.com. There's 11-12 prisoners who were first in 1 East European country and then shifted to another, and now they're all in the "North African" desert. There's 14 CIA officers authorized to use the "enhanced" techniques. A few days ago Washington Post reported that the longest a CIA officer had lasted with the waterboard technique was 11 seconds, and of course, the officers know their colleagues will not let them drown, so presumable for the terrorists its less time. Of 12 prisoners only one talked without waterboarding. One prisoner lasted 0.31 seconds.

· Hmmmm. So that's why the CIA uses this technique.

· The Clown of Baghdad complained at his trial Tuesday that he hadn't had a fresh shirt for 3 days, and that he wasn't inclined to attend court today. So this is news to us, that he comes of his own free will. The other day he was complaining of being dragged to court in handcuffs. Wish he's make up his mind.

· He also wanted to why why he had not been asked by the judge if he, the Clown, had been tortured, given all these witnesses were complaining of torture by his security agencies.

· Lets see if we can explain things to this genius. (1) The prosecution lays out its charges first. Then the Clown and his Brigade get to refute or to make their own case. (2) The judge is not supposed to ask "have you been tortured?', at random, apropos nothing. If the Clown says he has been tortured, his Brigade can file affidavits with the court at any point. We have no heard of any such being filed. (3) The question of if an accused has been tortured comes up when testimony he has given to the prosecutors is brought forward. He can then deny his statements, saying they were made under torture. Since no one is adducing any statements made by Saddam in evidence against him, the matter is irrelevant to the trial. He can, of course, complain of mistreatment, at any time, he has done so on every occasion, but what he considers is mistreatment is, unfortunately nothing of the sort by anyone's prison standards.

· Mostly, we can't figure out: the Clown has expressed, and continues to express, his opinions on everything, including the legitimacy of court officials' parents marriages, the right of Iraq to try him, the presence of the US in the country and so on. So why this sudden coyness, this need to be asked by the judge if he, the Clown, has been tortured?

· The Deputy Clown of Baghdad is rapidly becoming more famous than he was earlier. Ramsey Clark says that a fair trial is very important to the healing process of the Iraqi people. We can imagine what the Iraqi people will have to say to Mr. Clark and his healing process, and we have no doubt we will not be able to reproduce most of the comments.

· Next, the Deputy Clown makes this statement on the same day as Saddam the Clown threatens the judges that they had better watch out, he isn't dead yet. So we assume Saddam's threats are part of the healing process that Mr. Clark has chosen to impose on the Iraqi people?

· Slammer Time for Saddam Nephew 15 years for entering Iraq from Syria without proper documents, 6 for aiding in the manufacture of bombs. Glad to see one weasel has gone down, albeit a very, very minor one.

· US Needs To Learn From India What Law & Order Is About Two rival guerilla groups have been busy having at each other in India's northeast state of Assam. 125 dead so far. The civil authorities have issued a shoot-on-sight order to the army. Anyone seen wearing military style uniforms or carrying guns will be - well, not to put too fine a point on it - shot on sight. When the army gets these orders, they will not be aiming at the legs and so on of people breaking the rules, because in India shoot-on-sight means shoot-to-kill.

· We are willing to bet our powder-blue booties that the rebel clashes will stop - very suddenly and very totally. That's because its well known the army makes no exceptions when it gets these orders. The army may end up killing a few people who are too stupid to follow the civil authorities' orders. But in the end, the death toll will be a microfraction of what it might otherwise be.

· Iraq Military.com says 30+ Iraqi battalions are controlling their own areas of operation and more than 12 bases have been turned over to the Iraqis. The figure of 12 may contradict much larger figures for base handovers, but the latter includes forward operating bases and the like.

· Even Military.com - no hot bed of liberals and cut-and-run types - says that if things keep improving as they have been a troop level of 50-75,000 is feasible by next summer.

· In a sense, the debate about staying or getting out has been blurred by rhetoric on both sides. With the possible exception of a few loonies of the left, no responsible person is calling for abandoning Iraq. Almost without exception people are saying: Give us a plan to show that we are not in an open-ended commitment, and no, we aren't going to just take your word for it that you'll let us know when the time is right, Mr. Bush, because nothing you've said before has proven accurate.

· Similarly, barring the odd loony of the right, no one is saying that the US should be hanging around in Iraq for an indefinite number of years. These people simply don't want a precipitate withdrawal that occurs before Iraq can stand on its own feet.

· Both sides are, in reality, much closer to each other's position than might appear if we look only at the hot and fast slinging of words at each other.

0330 GMT December 6, 2005

· Ms. Rice Turns The Tables In a master move, Mrs. Rice said that the EU governments had the choice of making as much information public as they wanted regarding Terror War operations. She made no comment on charges concerning US run prisons, thus - to use the Marine slogan from the Chosin Reservoir - "attacking in another direction". She has not just tossed the ball into the EU's court, she has thrown the rackets, the net, the ball boys, and the referee into the EU's court and gone home to watch football.

· What a lady! Finally, an American who doesn't feel guilty for breathing, excuse us.

· Ms. Rice's comments make abundantly clear the pathetic, wimpy nature of the German spokesperson statement that his government has a list of 400 landings made by CIA aircraft in German, and that he hoped "all the facts would be discussed". Hope away, bub. Germany is a free country. Hope is free. Just keep hoping while the cows come home, die of old age, and are sent to the glue factory. You have the right to hope, Ms. Rice has made clear the US government has the right not to answer questions. Snicker.

· Saddam The Bipolar Clown CNN talks about Saddam's mood swings in the court - the session was 8 hours long today. Amusing, but not very. We are waiting for Saddam to do something really spectacular like streaking naked through the halls of justice.

· Re. the word Bipolar: we just learned it today and so had to use it. In your editor's day the term was manic-depressive.

· Iran buys 29 TOR AA Systems for $700-million. We hope "system" includes more than 1 firing unit and logistics vehicles otherwise this is a whoppingly expensive  deal.

· US and Israel protest, says BBC.

· May we ask why? Last we hear Iran and Russia are sovereign nations. Iran faces a clear threat. It wants to defend itself. The correct reaction would be to look at one's fingernails, puff cigar smoke into the journalist's face, and say "Yeah, we heard about that. We could get turned out if it meant anything. We love to have our adversaries fight back before we take them down. But TOR? Naaaah." More smoke in journalist's face.

· Luke L. Graysmith writes to the editor [slightly edited to leave out one or two words]

• I agree with your point that Torture is effective, when performed by experienced interrogator(s).
•  But you summarily dismiss a legitimate argument when you hoot at the cliché called the golden rule.
•  True, Mr. Zarqawi will not be persuaded to stop chopping off heads just because we ‘play fair’ with the sickos. However, the golden rule proscribes a behavior for you to follow with all your enemies, even if it only saves you from some of them. The scandal at Abu Gharib and the specter of torture at other secret facilities are perfect recruiting devices for people like Zarqawi.
•  Why is this difficult for you to understand and/or care about?         I have a possible explanation… I suspect that you like having more enemies for us to fight. I think a lot of military types do, because it supposedly legitimizes their POV.  My own POV is that the military is essential and I am proud of our soldiers. But I am wary of the type that likes to spray gasoline on fires, rather than water.
• I am not sure what to think of secret torture facilities in East European countries. But even if I were to support the concept in limited circumstances, I see the torture at Abu Gharib as a dangerous and stupid fiasco. The argument is dragged into a humiliating territory, in which you are frantically defending the torture of some cab driver for information about which of his brothers like to kill Shia. If we are going to compromise on basic principles, let’s save it for the important stuff, instead of dragging America’s name through the mud by water-boarding morons with IED’s. Let the Iraqi’s handle that stuff, if it is their lives on the line (our soldiers’ lives are on the line by definition, and that should not justify torture). Let’s save our moral hand-wringing for circumstances that really matter to Americans, like plots to kill US civilians.
• Geeze.    And don’t tell me I’m right. Tell your blog readers that *some* torture is just plain stupid, and we ought to be ashamed of ourselves for providing ammunition to those who would prevent torture in the *rare* circumstances that may actually be justifiable.
• This is just one more area where the neocon’s "To Heck with You" attitude is causing massive problems for the American ‘empire’ they claim to support. And you sound like a cheerleader for their squad, rather than a voice of sanity. Your readers aren’t dumb, they can understand the subtleties… and you write well, so you could explain it.    Instead you provide only half of what needs to be said, in such a way that the excessively ‘brave’ will think, “Here is a smart guy, and he says torture is ok, so I’m not gonna listen to any pansy that says we shouldn’t put Iraqi prisoners on leashes for parade.”
•  Please to provide a public service, sir.
• Editor's Reply A well reasoned letter, on target. Using Mr. Graysmith's viewpoint, which is that of a traditionally decent American, he is right. And of course there is no such thing as "some" torture. Torture is torture.
• But Mr. Graysmith wounds the editor when he calls him a neocon. Neocons are pink-panty wearing girlie whatevers. Okay, so here your editor has insulting the pink-panty brigade, and he knows from experience some of them can snap a neocon like a stick of asparagus and chomp him down without needing even a sip of white wine. If by neocons Mr. Graysmith means the Washington types that got us into Iraq, your editor has been very clear on this many time: hang them publicly with their panties stuffed in their mouth. A more deceitful, lying, anti-American and unpatriotic bunch of people has never been any country's misfortune to endure. They disgrace America simply by being alive. Neocons are in this for themselves, not for America. And your editor gets particularly angry when the neocons seem to find any excuse to save white folks overseas but have nary a word for the oppressed Africans except "well, we cant be intervening everywhere now, can we?"
• You editor is not being facetious. There was a time when you had American patriots and no one ever thought of asking their political affiliation.
• On torture Your editor sincerely believes no soldier should be required to torture. The soldier's response to torture should be exactly what the current Chairman JCS, Marine General Peter Pace said publicly to Secretary Rumsfeld the other day. Rummy said that a soldier needed to report torture if it was taking place. General Pace corrected him. No sir, he said. The soldier has to stop the torture from taking place. There speaks a warrior.
• Next, your editor believes - but has not written about - that the US government has no right to order the CIA to torture anyone. The CIA is not the government's scum squad. To be a spy for your country is a noble profession, and very much harder than being a warrior for your country, which in these times is hard enough. Spies need to have their own code of honor. The man who resorts to wrongdoing taints his warrior's purity. He dishonors the word "fighter". By doing that, he weakens himself.
• If the GUS wants to torture anyone, first, lets stop spinning. Its the spinning that gets ordinary American very upset, and we said that in our opinion piece yesterday. The use of euphemisms permits a person to avoid responsibility for what he is doing. Your editor has yet to meet a torturer who will blandly say that is what he is. Its always referred to as "hard interrogation" or some sort of  pretty-fied word. The US government needs to stop dancing around the reality. It has to stand up and say: we do torture - your editor made it clear yesterday that the practices given out out by American Sweetheart (not) the CIA chief are clearly torture. US has signed treaties against that. Say what it is, pull out of the treaties, and to heck with everyone else.
• Oh dear - can't do that? Have to keep resorting to euphemisms? That's because you believe what you're doing is wrong! Torture if you have to - but stop lying.
• Personally we don't see why anyone should need to torture people with today's drugs and other stuff which we wont go into. By the way, if someone is going to define as torture showing prisoners pornographic movies or forcing them to wear women's underwear or forcing them to  listening to country-western music - at normal-concert decibels, then we part company. But first someone has to show that this is effective, and is not being done merely to give the captors cheap jollies.
• Your editor is on record as saying the US government should not be segregating enemy combatants in special jails. Toss them in some nice American federal jails. They'll talk fast enough.
• Re. prisoners on leashes. Goodness gracious, people, where did Ms. Lyndie England's MP company learn such things? Well, in peacetime the company is made up of many "corrections" staff - gosh, what a euphemism. That's where they learned it from back home, in Maryland and Virginia They didn't think they were torturing anyone.

0200 GMT December 5, 2005

· Mr. Ramsey Clark Needs To Watch What He Says The former US attorney general, now advisor to Saddam at the dictator's trial, appears most concerned about the two Saddam lawyers killed. Is he now going to have any comment on the widespread intimidation of witnesses from the village where Saddam perpetuated the tortures and massacres that he is currently charged with? Fair is fair, Mr. Clark. Its wrong for people to intimidate Saddam's lawyers. Its just as wrong for Saddam's supporters to threaten witnesses to the point where at least two have changed their minds about testifying. Expect some witness murders.

· By the way, does Mr. Clark have anything to say about the daily threats against the judges?

· Ms. Rice On the Offensive On CIA Prisons Timesonline UK says that after weeks of defensiveness on the Washington Post's CIA prisons report, the US has gone on the offensive. Ms. Rice has told EU to back off, and to trust the US when it says it is not mistreating prisoners/ We are all in this together says Ms. Rice, cryptically adding that people in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.

· Our first reaction is admiration for the Secretary of State. Enough of this rear-end smooching the administration is getting so well known for, and which never works, because you can never satisfy the critics. US should have said, the minute the story came out, we're at war and in war all rules are suspended. These people are not enemy soldiers, no Geneva. If we need to resort to 16th Century torture techniques to get our information, we're going to do it and you keep out of our business. In a way, Ms. Rice is saying this, and good for her.

· Our second reaction is to laugh so hard our Diet Pepsi started coming out of our nose. EU has to trust the US when it says its not torturing detainees? EU may, by our reckoning on this issue, a bunch of wussies. But no one has accused the EU of being blithering idiots. Of course US is torturing detainees! As - according to us - it should be! The techniques laid out by the charming gent who heads the CIA are ALL considered torture. What is there for the EU to trust? Even a relatively "mild" technique like shaking has been ruled by the Israeli Supreme Court as torture, and we hope no one is going to accuse the Israeli supreme court of being pink-tights wearing liberals.

· One reason Americans are so distrustful of their government is that the government lies and lies and lies. Calling it "spin" doesn't change the nature of the lie.

· It is time for the US government to stop lying on this torture issue.

· Why Torture Works We honestly, really, do not want to attack the people saying torture does not work - including some military interrogators. They are honest and sincere people, idealistic people, who speak from their conviction - and religious belief in many case.

· At the same time, we'd like to point out is a huge qualification on the "does not work" matter. If you arrest a person, and he knows within 24 hours or 72 hours or even 15 days he is going to be produced before a court and either bailed out, or jailed, in either case out reach of the torturers, of course he's going to try and get away by telling you what you want to hear.

· But when you can hold than man indefinitely: please try and understand, folks, you talk. If you make the mistake of not telling the truth, the agency investigating will find out what you told them does not tally. It comes right back at you, and makes your life twice as bad as the first time. If you lie to them again, they come back and things are 4 times as bad. So you tell the truth, very quickly if you are normal, a little later if you are tough.

· The human is not made who can resist torture for long: we're talking hours for normal and days for the extra strong. The first rule taught to secret agents for if they are caught: try and get away with a plausible story, thought aforehand. If you don't get away it, tell the truth. No one expects you to die a superhero, because good torturers will make sure they don't kill you.

· Sickening? You bet. Horrible? You're right. Immoral? Well lets talk about that a second.

· On Lying

· The Bible says very clearly we should not lie. Your best friend's wife comes running to your house begging you to hide her: her husband has caught her with another man, he's got his gun, and he's looking to kill her. You hide her. Your best friend comes rushing up. "Is my wife here? I'm gonna kill her." Do you stand there and say "The Bible tells me not to lie. So I will tell you the truth. Yes, she's hiding in the guest bedroom. I realize you will now put nine 9mm bullets into her head. But I will remain a virtuous man because I told the truth". Obviously you lie.

· Are you going to the downstairs place because you lied? Obviously not, because you weighed the balance and decided to save a life you had to lie.

· Torture is, in a civilized society, an abomination. The question of how do we fight a war against an immoral enemy without compromising our principles is an old one. And the answer is, when you're in an all out war, you do what you have to do because you have to survive. There is no point to being dead, with your last words being: "I lived by my principles". If nothing else, Darwin tells us people who think like that will soon be eliminated from the chain of evolution.

· On Treating The Enemy As You Want To Be Treated So this is another tired old saw that is periodically dragged out of the Cliché Stable, stumbling and complaining because it is just fed up of being put on display. We shouldn't torture enemy combatants because when our men fall into their hands, we don't want them tortured.

· Our reaction: snort snarf snosh smgaff ha ha ha HA! What a great sense of humor people who use this cliché have.

· You enemy captive is a soldier, uniformed, and fought a clean fight. He deserves every respect. Did the US not give respect to the 100,000 whatever POWs from Gulf I? Your enemy captive is a person who despises your values, aims primarily to kill civilians, and no matter how treat him, should you have the misfortune to fall in his hands, you're in trouble.

· This man will not play by your rules - by targeting civilians he has already proved that.

· Sri Lanka Truce Seems To Be Breaking Down from what we read in the BBC news. The truce was declared in 2002, and has been pretty much maintained, uneasily, but still...Now a hardliner has become head of the government, and the rebels seem to have killed nine soldiers with a mine. Further, a breakaway faction of the rebel LTTE seems to have joined forces with the government and the rebel leadership is trying to settle scores. That's going to mean run ins with the government, as Colombo cannot just sit back and let its new allies be killed.

· Venezuela Parliamentary Elections are won by Mr. Chavez's party which looks set to have a bigger majority. Opposition boycotted the poll. This is not good, but lets not confuse ourselves with talk about lack of legitimacy and so on; Mr. Chavez would have won hands down anyway. The math is simple: there are many more poor people in Venezuela than middle-class and well-off people. Poor people love Mr. Chavez. Mr. Chavez will win. Nothing complicated, its called democracy.

· Meanwhile, the government says saboteurs attacked an oil pipeline. Well, if that's what your dissidents are going to start doing, Mr. Chavez, good luck.

· US wants to get rid of Mr. Chavez? Very simple. Drive down the price of oil to below $40/bbl. Venezuela surplus wiped out. Poor people get unhappy. So on. Of course there are bigger issues than Mr. Chavez, so you may not want to do that.

· Another approach: announce Mr. Chavez is your best, your truest friend; invite him to Washington, and hug him and squeeze him and make him ours forever. All the man wants is respect. So give it to him.

· Law of Unintended Consequences We all know the US is struggling with a flood of illegal immigrants. Now someone has come up with a new theory which to us, at least, makes a lot of sense. Prior to the 1990s era crackdown on illegal immigration, Hispanics - and Mexicans in particular - came across the border, earned their money, and went back. Border was easy to cross. Comes the crackdown. Border is tough to cross. Illegals decide to stay in US and set up shop rather than risk the journey. Bingo, your illegal immigrants climb in number.

0200 GMT December 4, 2005

· Washington Post Writes A Sanctimonious Editorial on the revelation the US has been paying Iraqi papers to carry positive news. The insurgents and terrorists don't have the problem of paying anyone to focus on negative news about the US, because people like WashPo do the job for free.

· As an Example of Free Propaganda For the Insurgents read about the non-existent Iraqi "Tet" offensive in Ramadi http://inbrief.threatswatch.org/ This "offensive" exists in the minds of AP and Reuters, and it is a very serious lie by the media. Are they going to get punished? Doubtful, because people like you and me don't have the resources to take out ads showing how AP/Reuters lied.

· ACLU Gets No Rest These fighters for Truth and Justice are now to file cases against the US Government on mistreatment of enemy combatants as violation of US and international laws. How they are going to get evidence, we are not quite sure. For example, the German government says aircraft known to do work for the CIA made 400+ flights into/out of Germany in 2002-2003. That's nice, but the chances of the German government finding out who/what/when was on the flights are zero.

· Personally, we'd have no problem with ACLU fighting for enemy combatants to be treated better if we saw ACLU filing cases against the US government and the states for better treatment for US prisoners. Wouldn't get them the same publicity.

· OK, So Another Senior al Qaeda Leader has been offed by the US inside Pakistan and the Pakistani cooperated. Thank you Pakistan for lining up this kill, and hundreds of other kills and arrests.

·  Which still doesn't answer the question why more of these animals seem to have found a good home in Pakistan than in any other country in the world. We haven't done the math, but we wouldn't be surprised if half or more of the terrorists arrested/killed worldwide have met their end in Pakistan.

0200 GMT December 3, 2005

· WMD, Lies, and Gulf 2 Reader Scarlet Paz sends a letter to US Stars & Stripes in which the author, a captain serving in Iraq blasts the war as based on a lie. It wasn't about WMD he says, but about the security of Israel and the control of Iraq's oil. Ms. Paz says the letter has received widespread condemnation and asks our opinion.

· First, we completely understand why this young officer is angry and bitter. We've been saying for a long time now that, in our opinion, President Bush should have trusted the American public and told them the truth about why he was going to war.

· Second, the captain is entirely correct. WMD was the excuse for a war to protect Israel and oil was definitely a very major consideration.

· This said we can get down to basics.

· When a country goes to war, the cause is usually straightforward. For example, Hitler wanted to dominate the world.

· Gulf 2, however, was not started for one reason. As is the case in Washington for almost any major policy decision, a coalition of disparate interests came together, 9/11 being the galvanizing backdrop, to put into action ideas long discussed and deferred because earlier the time wasn't right.

· The security of Israel was the primary reason for a group that saw its chance to act. It enlisted powerful allies, each with their own agenda. For example, key US oil allies like Saudi, Kuwait, the UAE, Oman etc were equally concerned about Saddam and wanted him put down for good. An attack dog on a chain is still dangerous.

· Another big player was the lot who believed that true peace in the Middle East could come about only with democracy, and that the repression of 1-billion people by their rulers was inimical to the world, and thus to the US.

· Yet another group was the crusader lot, who had been talking for some  time about the unprovoked war fanatical Islam had launched on the Christian West  after the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan. But till 9/11 the war, and counter-war, ran mostly in the shadows. It's very difficult for any country to galvanize itself to action in the absence of a straightforward, direct threat, and the Islamic threat was long-term and extremely diffuse. Till Bin Laden did everyone the favor of killing close to 3000 people on American soil.

· Another group was the one which believed the US has the duty of creating a world empire. In 2003 America dominated the world or had convinced the parts it did not control - like Russia and China - to work within the US frame of reference. Except for one last remaining block, the Mid East Arabs.

· Surely oil interests played a part. The oil interests in America are not monolithic, because America is simultaneously the largest consumer of oil - think low prices - and, till recently, at least, the largest producer - think high prices. But the oil issue we'll have to save for another day as it is much more complex than just saying "America wanted Iraqi oil".  If control of oil was the issue, the US should have attacked Saudi Arabia, not Iraq.

· When you consider these groups don't think in terms of hard-edged squares each painted in one own solid color. Think of circles that move together and move apart in a constantly changing color kaleidoscope. Before 9/11 the display was not sufficiently constant in time to permit clear decisions. 9/11 fixed the display long enough for the decision to go to war to be made. Many key decision makers spanned two or more groups. There were compromises made. Fore example, there is no way you could have sold Mr. Rumsfeld a war for Israel's benefit. But you could have sold him a war for democracy and the American world empire.

· Back to the WMD: Mr. Bush Did Not Lie People, we hate to say this, but the US administration believed quite strongly they existed. However much anyone may hate Mr. Bush, he did not know he was lying, not least because just about every other country with input into US intelligence resources also believed Iraq had WMD. If it didn't, why fight so hard to keep the UN out? The record of Iraqi deceit on inspections is long and extremely detailed, and the record was made by the UN - not by the US.

· To say, as some have said, that Saddam was simply tired of being pushed around becomes a dubious proposition once US 3rd Army started massing on his border. The man knew the game was going to be over if he didn't allow inspections, so where was the question of his ego and telling the UN they couldn't order him about in his own country?

· Saddam has always acted rationally, why should he get irrational now? Some have also said that Saddam believed the WMD flap was an excuse to get him, and if he proved he had no WMD, the US would merely find another excuse. We don't accept this as serious proposition. Had he permitted free inspections even at the last minute, and had UN/US inspectors looking in every place, how could the US have invaded?

· But we do have to say that WMD alone would not have persuaded the administration to war, even if the war was sold to the American public on that basis. We can discuss this another day.

· You can ask, "so where are the WMD that you say everyone believed existed?"  No clue, folks.

· And frankly we personally don't care.

· Because we would have supported this war 100% even if the UN had said: "we've gone over every square meter of Iraq and there are no WMDs." To us WMDs are completely beside the point.

· We support the war  on the basis of the clash of civilizations alone, and because we believe the American world empire gives the world its best chance for a stable, long-term peace.

· That does not mean we condone the appalling casualness and indifference which the Administration showed to the aftermath of Saddam's overthrow.

· What happened is that the security of Israel group sold a bill of goods. No one was thinking about the aftermath because the security of Israel group said there would be no aftermath. Had aftermaths been discussed, there is no way the other groups would have agreed to go to war. And in all the excitement about the coming war, no one wanted to listen to the CIA and State, who kept saying there would be an aftermath, and a very bad one at that.

· The security of Israel lot wanted  Saddam and the Baath destroyed, the army reduced to dust, and Iraqi turned against Iraqi so that for a whole generation Iraq could not be a threat.

· This will explain why the Iraqi Army was disbanded, and every last piece of major equipment destroyed. We had, for a long period, derided these decisions as supreme stupidity. What we have begun to see only lately is that they were deliberate decisions which the security of Israel lot managed to get accepted as government policy.

· The issue here is not charges of perfidy, deceit, dissimulation and so on to be laid at the door of the security of Israel people. They did nothing that every interest group in Washington does not do every day.

· To the question of "why should pro-Israeli groups be running American foreign policy in the Mideast?" we ask our own questions. Why should anti-Castro groups be allowed to determine the course of the wholly irrational American policy toward Cuba? Why should trial lawyer groups be allowed to destroy America? Why should businesses with a firm determination to privatize American education at taxpayer's expense be allowed to ram No Child Left behind down America's throats? Why should investment bankers be allowed to destroy social security? Why should the so-called civil liberties lot be allowed to erase all mention of God from public life? Why should vicious commercial media interests chasing a buck be allowed to use the 1st Amendment to push obscene material to our children?

· This is the way Washington works. The security for Israel lot played their game flawlessly. If we are to be angry, we should not direct our anger toward any specific interest group for doing a good job. We should be asking ourselves, why did we let America come to this, where secret cabals of the right, the left, the center, the whatever determine the course of our lives? And what do we need to do to bring about change in our own country, even as we fight for change in other countries?

· Big Time Cop Out Don't look to your editor for answers. He's a guest here. He pays his taxes, keeps his nose clean, gets up when the Pledge of Allegiance is recited, teaches his students to appreciate this great country, and eats only genuine American-made chocolate, Hershey's to be specific. This is your country folks, you figure things out.

0230 GMT December 2, 2005

· Israelis Training Kurd SF Units specifically in CT operations. This news comes from a Turkey e-newspaper and is forwarded to us by reader marcopetroni. The contracts are small, less than a million dollars.

· The Turks are understandably unhappy, as they have a huge Kurdish separatist problem. We suspect, however, that the arrival of the Israelis is not aimed at the Turks, who are close allies of Israel. Rather, its the lot across the Kurds' eastern border that should be getting worried. The Iranians too have a Kurd problem, in their northwest. An interesting development.

· Israel's Sharon Is Looking 10 Years Younger these days and is usually photographed beaming from ear to ear. As well he might. He shafted his own party because of hardliner opposition to his peace plans: in grand style, he simply announced ahead of the elections he has formed a new party. Haartez of Israel says if the election is held today, the new part will have the biggest block, with 37 votes.

· Meantime, Likud, Mr. Sharon's old party, is melting away like the polar ice caps: it would get 9 seats today and that is going down.

· Also meantime, after a revolt in the Labor party which saw a much younger man taking over, Shimon Peres left the party he has headed for many years and has joined Mr. Sharon. Labor gets second place in the hypothetical if held today. Since Labor is generally for the peace thing, looks like the crafty old bird, Mr. Sharon, will be back leaving the religious parties and Likud to eat their hearts out.

· WashPost At It Again - The Clowns Just Keep Marching On So the Washington Post has this story about woe and so on in Baghdad with people complaining there is no security, and in Saddam's time at least there was security. Smack in the middle of the story is a large photo of Iraqis troops celebrating as they take charge from the Americans of a section of the Syrian border. Great job, WashPost editors.

· Anbar has been the most rebellious province and has been the hardest to subdue. That the Iraqis are now starting to take over the ultra-sensitive Syria border from the Americans is a remarkable success. Not that the story makes any mention of this.

· Wait for WashPost to write a story on how insurgents are freely going back and forth across the border now that the Iraqis have taken it over, to show what a sad failure the Americans are.

· Bill Roggio, our favorite Iraq blogger, is in western Iraq and was present at the handover ceremony. www.fourthrail.com.

· How Come WashPost Never Told Us The Rest of the Story? After the non-stop series of operations along the Euphrates corridor, suicide bombings have fallen to their lowest level in 7 months. Doesn't WashPost owe it to readers to report this? We got it from an AP story in  www.military.com. WashPost also uses AP as a feed.

· The US has continued taking relatively heavy casualties through November, in great part because - we had to state the obvious - there's a war on in West Iraq and the US is vigorously prosecuting it. For example, a new operation has begun, this time to clear the town of Hit. A US Army artillery battalion is participating: without knowing the breakdown of the other troops, we can't say if this is an example of the much talked of new model for operations, where Iraqis form the bulk of the troops and the US provides fire and logistic support.

· Israelis Arrest Al-Jazz Reporter Alas, this seems to have less to do with Al Jazzera as a media vehicle than with the man lives on the Palestine side and seems to have been up to no good. Israelis are not saying anything. In any case, much as we may dislike Al Jazzera, they are entitled to put their view of reality to the world as much as anyone else.

· Russia Will "Never" Withdraw Troops From Kalingrad Region says the Russian Army Chief of Staff, according to Tass of Russia.

· Sorry, have we missed something? Was anyone expecting the Russians to demilitarize the area? We didn't know it was an issue.

· It Just A'int Fair Okay, folks, pop quiz time. Why is the Gulf Stream getting colder, threatening a new ice age for Northwestern Europe? Because global warming has caused an influx of fresh water from melting polar ice caps into the Atlantic, diluting salinity, reducing the ability of the ocean waters to retain heat. Go figure.

0230 GMT December 1, 2005

· The Editor Misses The Real Cope India Story and to add insult to injury, it is an American reader who gently guided him to the story behind the story.

· Says the senior commander on the American side: "in the future -- for any possible contingency that pops up -- we’ll be able to hit the ground running and work together...What that ultimately does is improve peace and stability in the region.”  Says the senior commander on the Indian side: "Such exercises not only help in promoting mutual understanding and learning from each others’ experience, but also enhance interoperability and help refine joint operational procedures".

· Now, being away for so long from India your editor took the Cope Thunder exercises at face value, aided by Indian newspapers and bloggers that seem to have missed the real story as much as your editor. The Big Deal isn't about the US doing Dissimilar Air Combat Training, which is what your editor had assumed. Its about an alliance between the US and India against a 3rd party.

· The 3rd party being the other Su-30 operator in the region, the PLAAF.

· This also explains the presence of the E-3 AWACS. Your editor had assumed it would operate passively, sucking up all the information it could.  Your editor was baffled as to why the Indian Government would allow the E-3 to operate.

· Now we know the reason: as part of the exercises, Indian Su-30s flew escort for the AWACS. So, connect the dots. If it isn't happening already, its going to happen: The E-3 was controlling Indian fighters, and we presume the Indians were/will control American fighters.

· At this point readers will have to excuse your editor while he goes outside to barf. The thought of Uncle Sam and Mother India kissy-facing away in full view of the public is enough to make this old nationalist sick.

· The Indian and US Navy's already have considerable joint operating experience which they continue to build on.

· So, ladies and gentlemen, US strategy in securing the Indian Ocean flank against China Rising is no thought exercise, as many of us academics have believed. There's an alliance that's getting more and more intimate by the minute. Cut! Cut! Cut! Where are those darn Indian movie censors when you need them?

· Correction on US Air Aces Reader Theo Levin writes to note we missed the USAF's other two Vietnam aces: Charles DeBellevue, who was the Weapons Systems Officer for six kills, and Jeff Fienstein. Your editor is definitely in the first stage of Alzheimer's or something: he tried to recite from memory the five American attack carriers that were in the China Seas and adjacent  at the time of the Gulf of Tonkin incident, and he couldn't. A happy coincidence that the US Navy, which in those days normally deployed three carriers forward to the West Pacific just happened to have five - war surge deployment - in the area when the incident took place. Not.

· What fascinates your editor is the way people have edited their memories to now "prove" the incident didn't take place. It did. What the editing does is to divert attention from the real question people should have asked then and later. Since the North Vietnamese leaders never gave any evidence of being addicted to hallucinogenic drugs, why on earth would they decide to pick a fight with the US Navy they were going to lose hands down?

· We'll leave it to people better versed in Second Indochina history to answer that question. But one reason the weaker - in this case much weaker - side preempts despite potential suicide is that it believes an attack is imminent anyway, so there's nothing to lose and something to gain by preempting. That would be the Big View Conspiracy Theory. The Small View Not-So-Conspiracy theory is that if you have destroyers lurking around to cover insertion/recovery of raiding teams, one way of increasing your chances of getting your paws on the raiders is to attack the covering force.

· Your Editor Said It First Few may recall British astronomer Fred Hoyle. He was a great popularizer of science and wrote science fiction in his spare time. Decades ago your editor read an article by him where he argued that the real danger facing the world was not global warming, but global cooling. There weren't many takers for his theory: though concern about global warming was nowhere near as acute as it is today, it was something boffins discussed.

· So for decades your editor has wended his lonely way, like the Raven of Doom, croaking warnings about global cooling. No one listened, which is as it should be, as your editor has not the slightest clue about these matters.

· But now we learn from the London Times that the British fear the Gulf Stream is breaking down. You'll remember from school geography (even if you are American) that the Gulf Stream is what gives Britain its relatively mild winters even though it lies well into the northern latitudes. If the Gulf Stream stops, UK temperatures would fall around 6 C. Voila, a new ice age, at least for northern Europe.