1530 GMT October 31, 2004

[2nd Update]

·         FALLUJAH Activity in and around Fallujah is picking up. As of this time we don't have enough to say that the assault has begun.

·         First, the long artillery barrage we mentioned yesterday was laid down after Marines inside SE Fallujah were attacked by mortar fire.

·         Second, fighting has erupted at Ramadi. No details as would help us to get a clear picture. Watching for Ramadi happenings is important because insurgents are firmly entrenched here too: it's a Twin Cities sort of thing with Ramadi-Fallujah, so Ramadi has to be attacked at the same time.

·         Third, contrary to what we reported about the US troops around Fallujah being doubled to 2,000, it emerges that that figure applies to Ramadi. So this becomes another indicator that something is about to happen.

·         Readers should add a Marine regimental HQ and two battalions to the line-up we gave yesterday, on account of Ramadi, unless the reinforcements are army troops - there is no indication either way.

·         Our revised working orbat should now read (we will start plugging in unit numbers soon; had we had the time, a careful correlation of news reports would already have given us a good indication of the units)

HQ 1st Marine Division

o                                2 Marine infantry regiments with 4 battalions (1 in reserve)

o                                US Army brigade task force from 1st Infantry Division, 3 battalions, plus 1 battalion from 1st Cavalry Division

o                                Iraq 1 commando company

o                                Iraq 1-2 army battalions

o                                Iraq 2 National Guard battalions

·                     MARINES AND LUNCH

A letter from reader Shannon on the Marines' lunch:

There is no shortage of food. It is standard for troops two receive a hot meal for breakfast and dinner only, lunch in the field is almost always an MRE. This is because feeding hot chow can be disruptive to training and activity cycles, were as MRE are always carried by the troops and can be eaten with minimal to no interruption in mission postures. The fact that they were receiving 3 hot meals a day means they did not consider themselves in any serious action as far as unit commitments go

0430 GMT October 31, 2004

·         FALLUJAH Washington Post reports Marines at Fallujah say they are ready, and waiting only for the "go" order.

·         A puzzling detail, and we don't know if it is true: WashPost says that to conserve food for the coming assault Marines have been cut back to 2 hot meals a day, and field rations issued for the missing meal. Does this make sense? The US base is a few kilometers away; we can see once the assault begins units get isolated and supplies are sometimes difficult to push through on a schedule, but its not as if the supply route is long or insecure. Wouldn't it make sense to save the field rations for when the fighting starts? Is there a shortage of field rations or food?

·         A US military spokesperson says the US had put down the heaviest and most consistent artillery fire on Fallujah in a long-time. That usually indicates an attack is imminent, but then, this is Iraq, and US forces effectively take their engagement orders from Baghdad.

·         We learned a few days ago that the people of Fallujah are indeed being told to leave - but by the Fallujah Council. It is doing its best to get people out of the city. The people fleeing saying the US is no help: they get stopped, questioned about the situation inside the city, and then pushed on. We can understand the Marines are not in a good mood regarding the people of Fallujah, but if they were to provide for the population - and this assault has been months in the making - they could empty the city out and have a free hand.

·         WashPost reports a spokesperson says there are "thousands" of foreign fighter inside the town, but he would not confirm other estimates of 5,000.

·         The attack force, conversely, has been built up to just 2000, with the arrival of an unidentified 1st Cavalry Division battalion from Baghdad. That would just be the spearhead, of course

·         This would make 4 Army mechanized/tank battalions and 3 Marine battalions available. Our estimate of Iraqi forces is 1 Commando company, and 1 Army battalion, possibly a second, and two National Guard battalions.

·         BIN LADEN TAPE Conspiracy theorists are going to love this new tape because it could have perfectly scripted by the Kerry team. Among other things, Bin Laden attacks Mr. Bush for being negligent in taking immediate action and instead finishing his reading to the school children. Thanks to Bush's negligence, "Bin Laden" says, his teams were able to take out other targets. The tape takes Kerry off the hook as an object of Bin Laden's affections, because it bashes Kerry too.

·         This is the type of story that makes one look heavenward and cry: "Lord, take me home, NOW!". Somebody please give us a break. The person who benefited from America's negligence criticizes Bush for being negligent? Please! Why would Bin Laden say anything such idiotic thing to begin with?

·         ARAFAT The PLO leader is in a French Army hospital near Paris. Doctors are conducting tests, have confirmed he does not have leukemia, at least, other results may not be known for some days.

·         MISSING EXPLOSIVES Our readers did not get an update yesterday. First your editor went  crazy trying to explain in plain language the operational and field command structure of the Myanmar Army, something he is convinced even the Myanmar Army cannot explain. Then he read the latest news on the Missing Explosives, and instantly regretted it. Then he spent an hour trying to tie up developments before he gave up.

·         Today he feels no guilt about not having covered the story. It is so useless a story that even the US media is asking if anyone really cares.

·         Question to Mr. K: why is this 400 tons more important than the other 1 million tons in Iraq at that time? There wasn't even any insurgency at the time, so why should anyone see the least urgency about securing THIS particular 400-tons? CNN says there is still 250,000 tons of munitions/explosives to be accounted for. If you're going to hammer Mr. Bush, 250,000 is a much more impressive figure. Of course, if you went there, you'd be laughed out of town, because Iraq is a big country and its going to take years to find all explosives and destroy them. Not that that is going to solve anything, because the insurgents are smuggling in as much as they need.

·         MR. KERRY AND AFGHANISTAN Mr. Kerry has been hammering Mr. Bush on the "failure" in Afghanistan, and having outsourced the capture of Bin Laden instead of sending in America's finest warriors to do the job, thus let BL to get away.

·         Now, we quite understand that Mr. Bush has been uttering one fat fib after another regarding his performance in the Terror War, and so Mr. Kerry has no choice but to also utter one big fat fib after another.

·         We do have to point out, though, that Afghanistan is a huge success, considering not so long ago - 3 years, to be precise, we were being direly warned that no foreign army had conquered Afghanistan and so on and so forth etc. The war was a success exactly because it was outsourced: a handful of SF troops leading the locals, and massive applications of firepower, sent the Taliban running in so short a timespan, that your editor and our anonymous Afghan analyst were stunned - even though we'd been predicting all along the US would handily defeat the Taliban. And before September 11, the Americans had not one person in Afghanistan: talk about lack of intelligence. The CIA was having to raid nursing homes for old Afghan hands, giving them invalid walkers, and supplying them with Viagra because it couldn't find anyone else. Even then we heard a rumor  that when the first SF troops went in, within a few days of 9/11, the US had been round up just 8 officers with Afghan experience.

·         Afghanistan is a model example of a new type of warfare. Which, oddly, is the old form of warfare. The British never sent their finest warriors to fight anyone. Britain was a tiny island with ?30 million? people and a worldwide empire. So it always "outsourced". The British would spend years, if necessary, on playing the locals off one another, rewarding those who fought for them, and then proceeded to the next war or the next battle. The natives were backed by a few British soldiers, and some very daring officers and political agents.

·         By the way, what is astonishing about the age of British imperialism is that these officers and agents were, in the main, kids by the standards of today. Today you wouldn't entrust a rifle company to some of them because they were so young. But these boys simply bashed on ahead and just did it. By the time HQ in London had the slightest inkling that Captain Smith with Political Agent Jones had marched off to conquer another country or two for the crown, regardless of what London thought there was nothing it could do - because by the time the orders reached overseas "Don't advance another step or else we'll send your Dad out to give you a spanking", Smith and Jones had already conquered another country or two.

·         Afghanistan was won by American cowboys winging it at every step. Washington gave what resources it could, it gave money, and it let the people on the ground do what they thought best. The whole show was over before the press got organized to leave Kabul. To our mind, the whole thing worked also because the press was NOT present.

·         One last thing. Mr. Kerry, America's finest warriors HAVE been trying to catch Bin Laden for 3 years. Did no one bother to brief you? Alongside the Americans have had Britain's finest warriors, and an screwball collection of some of the best tribal fighters Afghanistan has, and some crack contingents from other countries who have preferred to stay out of the limelight.

·         But you know what? These sort of wars are not won in a day, or even in  a year. Bin Ladin may never be caught. We assume, he is alive, of course. That's the way life works. Just suck it up and stop whining you could have done it better.

·         A LAST SPECULATION Have any of our readers noticed that whenever Bin Laden appears on another tape, the US Vice President Mr. Cheney is never to be seen? Laugh, if you will, but our theory makes more sense than the ranting, raving, foaming at the mouth the candidates and their supporters have been doing.

·         A LAST LAST SPECULATION Any of readers remember the post-WW2 German novelist who wrote "The Night of the Generals" also wrote a book about a German artillery NCO on the Russian front. It has been forever since we even thought about the book. As we recall, Gunner Ash was selected by his officers to take back a highly important note to anti-Hitler plotters in Berlin. The entire story is a cliff-hanger with the Gestapo etc just one step behind Gunner Ash, all the way from the Russian front to Berlin. Gunner Ash gets through, of course. When he returns his commander asks him "How did you succeed, with the Gestapo and everyone after you? Tell me your brilliant plan!"

·         Gunner Ash is puzzled. "Plan, Sir? I didn't have a plan, I was just trying to survive one day to the next". Which is why the Gestapo's finest never got him. They kept saying "now logically he should make his next move right here". But since the gunner didn't have a plan, even the smartest people couldn't stop him.

·         Your editor was so impressed when he read the book that he has never made a plan since.

·         But that's not the point of our story. Gunner Ash = President Bush. Now you get the point?

0300 GMT October 29, 2004

·         ARAFAT The PLO leader is to be flown to France, perhaps today, for medical treatment. AFP reports that a doctor treating him in Gaza says he may have blood cancer or a form of blood poisoning.

·         Apparently Mr. Sharon has told an Arab MP that no attempt will be made to prevent Mr. Arafat from returning. That's not as kind-hearted of Mr. Sharon as one might think: we suspect Mr. Sharon believes the only way Mr. Arafat will return is in a coffin.

·         The Israeli Foreign Minister has wasted no time saying an Arafat exist from the scene could help reactivate the peace process and enhance chances of a permanent settlement. Doubtless all this is politically correct; frankly, however, we admire people who tell it as it is.

·         Hamas and Islamic Jihad are not taking any chances on a possible Arafat resurrection. They have pledged to each other they will not engage in internecine warfare in the event of his death.  

·         A LETTER ON YOUR EDITOR AND MR. CLINTON ENLISTING From Micah Hagins: "I just turned fifty...I'll join up too, if they'll let me...better me than my two teenaged daughters! I'm just a guy trying to find out what's really going on in the world and our country, so I can prepare my family...I think there are a lot of us like that. It's hard to know what the truth is, there are so many outlets, none of which seem to be trustworthy.

"

·         Micah: As long as there are honest Americans like you, the Republic will never fail. You turned 18 in 1972. If you were not drafted, no blame to you. The draft was on its way out. And much as you love your daughters: the whole point of gender equality is that women have to go to war, too, if needed. I am absolutely revolted at the idea that women should go to war at all, but then these are choices American society has made.

·         THE MISSING IRAQI EXPLOSIVES There are days when the combination of American media and American politicians gives one a severe headache. This is one of them. Reader Terry Shifflet writes to tell us about an ABC news report. Of the 377 tons of explosives missing, 141 tons is supposed to be RDX. But the figure is based on an Iraqi declaration from July 15, 2002. When IAEA inspectors  visited the storage facility on January 1, 2003, they recorded 3 tons present. So the other 138 tons of RDX was gone well before the US invasion. ABC says, however, that there still may be problems with the missing HDX. Though the IAEA verified its seals were intact on the HDX bunkers, there apparently were ways someone determined to purloin the HDX could have done so without breaking the seals. So we still don't know if it was gone before or after the invasion.

·         First, fire the IAEA inspectors who put those seals. If this is the standard of their work, then we'd better start worrying what else they have sealed.

·         Second, Mr. Bush makes a valid point when he says a thousand times more explosives and ammunition has already been destroyed in Iraq. Of course, HDX is not your typical explosive, but still...

·         Third, should we be tarring ABC with the same brush as the rest of the media? After all, ABC went out and got the more correct story. Maybe. But ABC says it obtained confidential IAEA documents. ABC may not know it, but confidential documents of any sort are not just waiting for journalists to find. You don't just walk into the IAEA staff cafeteria and tell the server "I'd like 10 confidential documents today, please." Those documents were planted on ABC, and if we are to pat ABC on the head, it had better acknowledge that it is being used. If we are to give ABC and A or a B or C for reporting, we'd like proof that ABC actually tried to figure out why those documents were planted on it, and then we'd like ABC to tell us so we can make our own judgment.

·         THE WASHINGTON POST MAKES A POMPOUS ASS OF ITSELF We've been a bit off our feed of late because the WashPost has actually been behaving itself. No egregiously stupid stories, a lot of quite informative stuff, actually. But today we perked up. On Page 1 of yesterday's Post, the august newspaper tries to convince us that in a tight election, the missing explosives have become a big issue - someone else, not the Post, even spoke of this as the October surprise.

·         Message to the WashPost on behalf of the average American, who you believe to lack the intelligence your little left ingrown toenail possesses: American...public...does...not...give...a...darn...about...missing...explosives; ...leave...alone...let...it...become...an...issue...on...whom...it...will...vote...for.

·         We had to speak slowly and carefully because we have reason to believe the left little toenails of the astronomically brilliant WashPost staff have difficulty hearing.

 

MORE ORBAT.COM RANTS: THE NEW AL-QAEDA TAPE

·         CBS has acquired a tape in which a man describing himself as an American member of Al-Qaeda threatens the US. The tape has not been authenticated by the US authorities. CBS paid $500 to have the tape brought over by means not described. analysts suspect the man grew up in a non-native American speaking household.

·         Your editor does business of the orbat kind with people in the Middle East, and these days for $500 you get nothing more valuable than a can of last week's garbage. Even for that your Middle East source will want an American visa for him and family, a pension for life, and a Bruce Springsteen sweatshirt.

·         We're getting irritated by this absolutely meaningless ritual of US sources saying "American officials say they have been unable to authenticate the tape", and then a few days later "American officials believe the tape to be authentic". Go away little boys, and play your dumb games elsewhere. The American public has no reason to believe any of the authentications are authentic because no outside experts are permitted to look at the tapes. Normally, we are all for believing the government. In this case however, we know information warfare is a powerful tool of US policy.

·         As for the statement, here is an excerpt: "No, my fellow countrymen you are guilty, guilty, guilty, guilty. You are as guilty as Bush and Cheney. You're as guilty as Rumsfeld and Ashcroft and Powell. After decades of American tyranny and oppression, now it's our turn to die. Allah willing, the streets of America will run red with blood matching drop for drop the blood of American victims."

·         Dude, we really hope your dream of "our turn to die" comes true - for you, of course, we're not that fed up with life. And further, if you keep writing prose like that, not to worry, we'll have no choice but to kill ourselves.

·         And still further, how long have you been off your medication? "The streets of America will run red with blood matching drop for drop the blood of American victims"? Say what, again? So first you kill Americans, and then you punish Americans because you killed Americans? If you get a letter from Mr. Bin Laden presenting his compliments and requesting the favor of an immediate visit from you, start running as fast as you can. He's ordered followers killed for less idiotic things.

·         Moreover, your editor spoke briefly with a Muslim gentleman he admires as a holy person and a scholar. This gentleman said you are anti-Islam and Allah will punish you for your blasphemy. 

·         Still further, by the way. Make sure you do not die a martyr on American soil. If you do, there is a special heaven reserved for you. It contains not 77 virgins, but 77 Boston policemen averaging 100-kg in weight, and equipped with night sticks and flashlights. So watch it, buddy, and control your mouth.
 

0200 GMT October 28, 2004

·         MR. SHARON WINS WITHDRAWAL VOTE Backed by liberal/leftist parties that more than made up for defections from the Prime Minister conservative power base, Mr. Sharon won parliamentary approval for his plan to withdraw settlements from Gaza. Opponents of the plan that serve in Mr. Sharon's cabinet say they want a national referendum on the issue.

·         Mr. Sharon again proves the old Orbat.com adage: only a real hawk can be a dove.

·         ARAFAT IN CRITICAL CONDITION AFP reports that Yassar Arafat, PLO leader, is in critical condition. Israel has given Mr. Arafat permission to go where he wants for treatment, an offer that was extended last week, when news of his serious health problems surfaced. Mr. Arafat - or his aides - refused the offer saying he was recovering. It seems to us Mr. Arafat and Company were more concerned about his being barred from returning more than his health.

·         Suha Arafat, Mr. Arafat's wife, is "expected to rush" to his bedside from Paris, where she lives.

·         Seeing as he has been quite ill for some weeks now, we appreciate her gesture of coming in case he is at death's door. Paris in October in beautiful, and doubtless she is making a big sacrifice in forgoing Paris for the dirty, dismal, demolished venues of Gaza, where coincidentally her people live.

·         We have long thought the Palestine problem can be easily solved. If Mrs. Arafat can live in Paris, why not the 2-3 million Palestinians?

·         In case Mr. Arafat dies, Orbat.com will be taking up a collection for his widow. Last we heard from our sources, she was down to between $30 and $50 million. Others put the total as much higher. Either way, she will be destitute and we must help.

·         Orbat.com no-brainer prediction. If Mr. Arafat dies, few of his aides will be around for the funeral. They will get out as fast as they can before they are killed by enemies or by the people.

·         IRAQ EXPLOSIVES Reader Chris Lock sends us a copy of Tuesday's Drudge Report, which says that a reporter embedded with the unit that made it first to Iraq's nuclear site says the explosives were gone before the troops reached. That is not good enough for Mr. Kerry's attack dog, Mr. Lockhart. He accuses the Bush administration of trifling with the truth.

·         An Army officer says that at that time, the US was battling for Baghdad. The thing with these military chaps is they always seem to have a slick answer for everything. That is an excuse? Are we all idiots? Thank goodness we aren't, but your editor can't say as much for American politicians.

·         CRUDE FALLS Agencies report crude oil fell to $53/bbl after the US announced that stocks had increased. A reader requests us to remind everyone that in 1979, after the Iranian Revolution, oil reached $80/bbl in today's money; further, the US uses half as much energy per unit of output as it did 35 years ago. Of course, we cannot assume that oil has to go to $160/bbl before the 1979 prices can be compared, because we don't know if the use of oil for producing one unit of economic output has also halved.

·         IRAN NUCLEAR We haven't bothered boring our leaders with the latest on the Euro 3's negotiations with Iraq, and rightly. Jang of Pakistan reports that's yesterday's negotiations failed. Amazing.

·         The Euro 3 analysts need something to focus their minds, and no, they cannot have your editor's stock of Tennessee Rotgut. He needs it more than they do.

·         Unasked for advice to Euro 3, in two-syllable words. You offer Iran nuclear reactors in return for it giving up its uranium enrichment program. But Iran needs an enrichment program if it is to fuel those reactors. No use saying: "We'll give you the fuel". Please don't assume the Iranians are as stupid as yourselves. Do we hear any takers in Germany, France, UK for a hypothetical Iran offer for you to terminate your enriched fuel programs because Iran will supply it to you?

·         It's always possible there was more to this story: the public process is rarely the real process in such matters. But Iran has made it clear many times: we will not give away our bomb option. So: stop this futile yak. Either work with the US/Israel to destroy Iran's program and take the consequences, or get out of the way, and when Iran has a bomb or two, take the consequences. There is a point beyond which talk talk talk is not seemly. It's not what powerful countries do. It's what old men who are no longer good for anything do.

MUSINGS OF AN AGING BOOMER: ORBAT.COM EDITOR'S OFFER TO MR. CLINTON

·         Sir, we both avoided service in the Vietnam War. A small difference: as a non-citizen and non-resident, I was not legally or ethically required to register. I stuck to my non-resident status, with all the disadvantages, rather than face a draft notice. My reasons for this avoidance were also different from yours; we can talk about it a different day.

·         Now both of us are getting on in the afternoon of our lives - we are about the same age. Being a man of conscience, I am sure you feel guilty that your life of comfort continued while less privileged young men went through a year of horror, mutilation, or death. Certainly I feel guilty, sometimes so much so I cannot sleep.

·         We know why you should feel guilty, but why me? Well, it's got to do the debt the "upper" classes owe to the ordinary people. Yes, we know your story, and a highly inspiring one it is, of how you rose from what we used to call a "white trash" background of abuse, deprivation, and instability, to become - entirely on his own merit - President of the United States.

·         But at the time you avoided your notice by saying you did not "receive it", you were Yale and Oxford. Not something the Irish and Italian working class boys of Boston could even dream of. By the way, the reason you will not leave the legacy which is your just due is because of your habit of lying American-style: frame your answer in a way that makes what you do legal, no matter what the intent. So, imagine the following phone conversation or letter exchange with your beloved mother. "Billy, your draft notice came". "Not to worry, Ma, just make sure you forward it to Abdul Aziz Ahmed Ali Afridi, Village Pindi, County Thesil, State North West Frontier Province, Country Pakistan." If I had 1/100th of your brains, I'd have been rich AND had the women. As it is, I have neither.

·         But back to the point. To be a leader, you have to run the same gamut of risks as they do. Men are funny that way - I know it doesn't compute for a genius like you. But any military officer can tell you this: live, eat, fight, and if it has to be, die with your men. They will follow you anywhere. Even when you become a senior officer and none of them will let you join them in the trenches: they believe in you, now they want to keep you alive so you will lead them well and keep them alive. You have paid your dues. You have made coup.

·         Both of us are baby boomers, even if temperamentally I am a bohemian, belonging in soul to the generation before ours. I believe we boomers have committed the greatest crime any generation of Americans have committed: the idea that we have every right known to humanity, but none of the responsibilities.

·         Boomers also believe that redemption is possible, no matter how old we may be. Moreover, your child is an adult now, my youngest has left for college. And your wife has no time for you, neither does mine. You are in excellent health despite your heart surgery; I am in reasonable health thanks to the 18 medicines I take. They enable me to leg press half-a-million pounds in two hours at the gym, without breaking a sweat.

·         So here's my suggestion for your redemption and mine. Let's both of us go and enlist for two years. Whoa, you say: are you crazy? I'm getting to 60, whatever you may be imbibing to keep your ticker booming.

·         Well, here's something an erudite man like yourself man like yourself should appreciate. When the famed British poet and author was a platoon leader in the Great War, among his 70 men he had some that were 60 and had lied to serve their country. He also had some that were underage and had lied for adventure, which is another thing, but still you have to admire these teenagers.

·         Now, I don't know how much you know about the Great War, but if we are talking of 60 year old men, you and I are going to have it much, much easier in Iraq than those men had in the trenches of Flanders.

·         So, let's go do our duty to our country - still not mine, but I live here, and should not let technicalities stop me from doing what's right - while we still can. Heck, if nothing else we can be medics.

·         If you do your duty, you will truly be the American hero that you deserve to be. As for myself, well, my conscience will stop bothering me. That's an important thing when one is our age and the day of the Big Nap approaches. And who knows: maybe 77 Big Hair ladies will be your reward in heaven. Me, I'd just be happy to win a day's parole  from the hot fella who runs the Downstairs Place, the guy who has his number already written across my forehead.

·         DEBKA OVER THE TOP In the context of your editor's musing above, "over the top" meant something else, but whatever it means, Debka.com merits this appendage. First Debka tells us that it continues to bring us every move of Al Qaeda - guys, whatever you're imbibing, save some for me, I'm on the next plane out. Then it tells us the latest  move by Mr. Zarqawi. He, says Debka, is writing an encyclopedia. He has on "American Hell 2", and no, Debka is not referring to American news media's coverage of  Iraq. That's Mr. Zarqawi's Volume 2 of his encyclopedia. Gotta hand it to these terrorists: no one can multi-task like them. And imagine: Mr. Zarqawi, so busy slitting throats and planting bombs and so on, still finds time to sit down and write. That man must have the soul of an artist. Come to think of, wasn't Mr. Hitler an artist?

0400 GMT October 26, 2004

·         Today's news has an unsatisfactory, unconnected feeling to it. Intuition says something is going on, but does not tell us what, where, and when.

·         AFP AND THE SPANISH COW Readers know we highly respect the Agence France Presse. Nonetheless, we'd like someone from AFP to tell us - not that they are likely to do so - why this world class news agency felt compelled to tell us late yesterday night that a cow wandering on to a rail line in Madrid had disrupted  commuter traffic. Moreover, why did AFP not tell us if this was an Al-Qaeda cow, or a CIA cow? We'd have thought that would be the first thing AFP would detail.

·         US ELECTION Since the election is almost on us, Orbat.com makes bold to tell its readers that probably the best explanation of what will influence comes from - alas - the Washington Post. An outside contributor writes Sunday that we should disregard all the instant polls, of which there are too many to be of any use. Instead, things to watch for:

·         Ohio and Wisconsin are two key states that have not gained from the economic recovery. US economy 3rd figures are due before the election. If these figures show solid growth, voters in these states might be less angry with Mr. Bush and vote for him. The figures will show growth, but if the rate does not convince these states that the recovery is a good one, they may vote for Mr. Kerry.

·         Any major attack on US troops in Iraq could cause losses for Mr. Bush. Conversely any major terrorist attack on the US could cause losses for Mr. Kerry. The problem as we see it is that US intelligence agencies have already said they have no information of an attack planned on the US.

·         If Mr. Bush can pull Osama, his deputy the mad Egyptian doctor, or the Jordanian Zarqawi out of his hat, Mr. Bush could win the election. Catching the first two by November 2 seems unlikely, unless one believes the US has Osama in quiet custody, waiting for an announcement at an appropriate time, and we at Orbat.com do not think so. Zarqawi's capture is a possibility, particularly if he is not a real person. At the same time, we can't see the US electorate getting too excited about him: he has insufficient brand recognition.

·         Ralph Nader is not a factor in this election. That could help Mr. Kerry. Moreover, the Democratic Party has gone all out to register new voters in traditionally Democratic voting groups. Conversely, 4 million Christian evangelists did not vote in the last election as they were disgusted with both candidates. Mr. Bush has taken a hard line on abortion, and has successfully painted Mr. Kerry as an abortion-supporter - nothing wrong here, as that is what Mr. Kerry is. If those evangelicals turn out for Mr. Bush, it's Goodbye, Mr. Kerry.

1300 GMT October 25, 2004

·         IRAQ AFP says that following the killing of 48 unarmed Iraq Army recruits on their way home after training, US/Iraq believes it was an "inside job". Suspicions have heightened that insurgents have infiltrated Iraq security, intelligence, and military.

·         The infiltration has long been known, people have been arrested for passing information to insurgents, so we are not quite sure why US/Iraq are talking about "suspicions". Nonetheless, making a judgment on this matter is difficult. On the one hand, the need for the US to build up security forces as fast as possible is obvious. On the other hand, from the first experts have been warning that speed is coming at the cost of proper training and vetting of personnel.

·         To Orbat.com, the problem originates with the US decision to disband the Iraqi Army, and the continuing failure to reemploy all professional soldiers and to help draftees that also found themselves out of work. Iraq before Gulf II did not have an economic system as most people tend to think of one: overwhelmingly, the government was the sole employer. Dismantling the Army, the civil services, the security services led to huge unemployment for a people already impoverished by years of war and sanctions. Whereas the US has acted to rectify mistakes on groups like teachers, despite several calls from US experts and Arab allies to reemploy the Army have passed unheeded.

·         We need to remind readers that the professionals in the Army were just that: professionals. Their first loyalty was to their institution and not to Saddam. Had they been reemployed, given respect, and given a stake in the reconstruction of Iraq, many problems could have been avoid.

·         IRAQ INSURGENTS ON DEATH ROW CNN says that 140+ Iraqi insurgents and foreign terrorists have been convicted of capital crimes and face execution. CNN does not say for a fact that the penalty will be carried out. Nonetheless, we do not see how Iraq can maintain state authority without executions. This is not a matter of civil crime, in which area there is a solid case that the death penalty is no deterrent. In civil crime, most killing is not premeditated, or if premeditated, it is not done as a policy tool except by organized crime. These Iraqis/foreigners are waging war against the state and the people of Iraq. And certainly the penalty for foreigners who as mercenaries take up arms against a state, is death.

·         350 TONS OF IRAQ RDX/HDX MISSING Iraq/US have reported to the IAEA that 350 tons of RDX/HDX declared to the IAEA by inspection has vanished. The explosives were under IAEA purview because they are used to trigger nuclear warheads. It is impossible to overstate this disaster because even a few tons can cause havoc. While RDX/HDX is hardly impossible to obtain, it remains a difficult material for non-government persons to acquire. 350,000 kilograms is a potential bonanza for terrorists when skyscrapers can be brought down with a few kilograms correctly placed.

·         The Kerry campaign has immediately seized on the incident and demanded that Mr. Bush explain why this was allowed to happen. The facility where the explosives were stores has been looted a number of times. We remain unclear that many Americans will change their presidential preferences because of the matter because these are not the sort of issues that engage the public. And of course, the charge is partisan.

·         At the same time, because the charges are being used to highlight the Bush Administration's mishandling of Iraq post-war security, and because the mishandling arose because of deliberate decisions to ignore warnings of post-war trouble by influential and varied sources such as the CIA, this does become a legitimate campaign topic.

·         The real question is, what did Mr. Kerry as Senator do to ensure the Bush Administration acted on the warnings? Mr. Kerry is erudite and intelligent, with active service experience. If the Bush Administration has been stupid, Mr. Kerry has been negligent. Had he brought up this issue, as a then supporter of Gulf II, he would have been a credible critic.

·         GOD, MR. BUSH, AND IRAQ Your editor loves America because it is such a crazy place. You can die of many things in America, but never of boredom. To amuse us in this drear season, Christian Evangelist Mr. Pat Robertson now reveals that after consulting God, he advised Mr. Bush not to invade Iraq because of the casualties that were certain to occur, but Mr. Bush told him there would be no casualties. Just imagine: a religious leader tells the President of the US not to undertake a war, and the President blows him off. Oh the idiocy of that Mr. Bush! And how hypocritical of Mr. Bush to claim he is a devout Christian and still refusing to listen to God's Messenger!

·         Of course, if you are or are not accepted as God's Messenger seems to depend on if you can get away with it. when Mr. Robertson claims the God connection, people shower him with millions of dollars. If your editor said: "God wants all strikingly beautiful women age 25-50 of deep intelligence and immense learning to do as I say," the state is likely to confiscate his Tennessee Rot Gut hoard and force feed him elephant tranquilizers. To add insult to injury, the shortly to be ex-Mrs. Rikhye sneeringly said: "And what are you going to have them do, given your pathetic age, lack of money, and equally pathetic *bleep* skills? Make them feed you chocolate?" Your editor is definitely going to miss this Mrs. Rikhye. No previous Mrs. R knows him as well as she does.

·         We have not read the original remarks, and odd as it may seem to our readers, American or not, your editor has a great deal of respect for Mr. Robertson. In a country that has taken to defining morality as meaning whatever an individual wants it to mean, Mr. Robertson is a Good Person. We wonder, however, if Mr. Robertson knew about the persecution of Christians under Saddam. And if Mr. Robertson had told Mr. Bush: "I worry that post-war the few remaining Christians will be targeted", we'd have to say Mr. Robertson is a Wise Person. Apparently - and please correct us if we are wrong, somewhere up to 70,000 Christians have fled Iraq after Gulf II. This represents half of an already seriously depleted community. We have been told - and again, please correct us if needed, that Iraqi Christians pre Saddam numbered 3% of the population, implying that without his persecution, there should have been 750,000 in Iraq, not 150,000.

0300 GMT October 24, 2004

·         FALLUJAH US forces raided Fallujah and captured a newly-appointed senior aide to Zarqawi and five other insurgents/terrorists. Analysis below.

·         DAFUR some good news about Dafur. The African Union has approved a 3,500 person security force to protect refugees and to prevent the marauding Khartom-backed militias that have created a genocidal situation in this province of Sudan. The European Union has pledged half of the $221-million required for the mission.

·         The United States has - we are very embarrassed to say this because Orbat.com is a big USA booster - put two C-130s at the AU's disposal for a limited time to ferry troops and equipment. And think: but for Secretary Powell's tireless advocacy for Dafur, backed by several members of Congress, even this much wouldn't have happened.

·         On the less positive side, if even Secretary Powell can get only two C-130s to help a people that are dying at a rate of 4 figures each week, this doesn't say much for America's willingness to help black nations.

ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY

·         SOMALIA: DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN The good news is that Somalia has a president again. The bad news is that he cannot go to Somalia. He was elected by the main Somali factions meeting outside the country, after lengthy and convoluted negotiations.

·         More bad news: he has asked for 20,000 African Union troops to disarm the warring militia who rule Somalia, and the reaction is: this man is totally out of touch with reality. No one is going to send troops in to fight, which is what the peacemaking force will have to do, not after what happened in 1993.

·         Ah yes. What did happen in 1993? 19 US soldiers were killed during a raid, and America turned yellow-tail. Did the leaders who took America out of Somalia before a person can blink ask the American people what they thought? Did they take the matter to the people and say: "Look, we're going to suffer casualties. But we think its for a worthwhile cause, a noble and a just cause. What do you say?" Your editor is willing to bet the American people would have said yes.

·         MORE DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN And just why precisely was America sending its troops to capture a warlord? Well, this is an interesting story. We know that the US indirectly triggered Saddam's invasion of Kuwait. Saddam politely asked the US what their reaction would be if he recovered "Iraq's 19th province". The US said it wasn't really any of Washington's business. Saddam attacked, the rest is history, including Mrs. Thatcher telling George I this was not time to go wobbly.

·         Now we have one of those unfortunate coincidences. Following our policy of not giving names unless necessary, the same foreign service officer who had the cozy conversation with Saddam's envoy, arrived in Somalia. Till she came, everyone was getting along fine. The peacekeepers, including US troops, were there just to make sure aid got to the needy. Otherwise they stayed out of local politics.

·         The foreign service officer decided that Mohammad Adeed had to go. She had reasons, good rational reasons if you are sitting in Washington. For one, the warlord was possibly the biggest obstacle to distribution of supplies. The officer indicated she was not prepared to bribe him to stand aside. Understandable  if you are an American. So in went US commandos, Adeed was not captured, 19 American soldiers were killed.

·         Thank goodness America now understands - in Afghanistan as well as Iraq - that bribery is the best way of minimizing trouble. The British knew this. But in any case, this officer got America in trouble once for not acting - Kuwait, and then got America in trouble for acting - Somalia. We'd have retired her on the spot after Somalia. Do any of our readers know what happened to her after?

·         IRAQ REVISITED More irony. The US was absolutely right to say it had no interest in Kuwait. If the US had not gone to war with Iraq, the price of oil today might well be $10/bbl.

·         Saddam invaded Kuwait after Kuwait led the oil Arabs in refusing to forgive Saddam the $40 billion plus debt he'd built up in his Iran War. The conservative Arabs had cheered him on - no one wanted Khomeni style radicalism coming their way. But when it came to money, they were not prepared to write it off.

·         If Saddam had gotten Kuwait's oil, would he have gone on to take Saudi's oil fields? Heavens to Betsy, of course he would - NOT. If the man is sensible enough to ask the US what it's position was on Kuwait, can we agree he would have been smart enough not to bother asking about Saudi, because anyone knows the answer: a bad movie called Death in the Desert, with the Iraqis doing all the dying as the did in 1991 and 2003.

·         But Mrs. Thatcher conned George I into thinking the occupation of Kuwait was a disaster for America. It was indeed a disaster - for OPEC and UK. Saddam would immediately have flooded the market with oil. He needed to pay back $40 billion, and he need to spit on Arab shoes for the insult they had delivered him. He would have broken OPEC for vengeance, and for cash. But if oil prices went down, the UK's North Sea oil becomes uneconomical. And much of the UK's revival from its post-war death spiral was due to North Sea oil.

·         LET'S TELL THE TRUTH: WHAT DOES GULF OIL REALLY COST? Sooner or later the Iraq war is going to add up to $200-billion and then go on climbing. Now lets say the US imports a third of its oil needs from OPEC. Take a back-of-the-envelope calculation and say that's 2 billion bbl/year.

·         So lets say Iraq is costing $100-billion a year. So the American taxpayer is paying a premium of $50 bbl for her oil. Add to that the premium tacked on by the money America spends anyway to protect its oil interests. We can calculate - back-of-envelope - that a fifth of the US defense budget goes for this purpose. Take the budget at $300-billion - its $400-billion, but a lot of the difference is Iraq-related money. That gives us $60 billion/year, or an additional premium of $30/bbl.

·         Dear American taxpayer: you are not paying $55/bbl for your oil. You are paying, like, at this time, $135/bbl for your Gulf oil. Stuff that in your SUV tank and see how you like it.

·         OUR FAVORITE WHAT IF The history of nations offers many What Ifs, and this is true as much of the history of one person. Our favorite What If comes from AJP Taylor, the controversial British historian. What would have happened if, on December 8, 1941, Hitler had declared war not on the United States, but on Japan? Boggles the mind, doesn't it? Please send us your What Ifs. We'd love to hear from you.

·         IRAN BOMB ANALYSIS Our Iran watcher Nicholas Krazin sends this analysis. Euro Big 3 Talk “Tough"  Same old, same old, with  one important difference this time.  Europe’s proposal asks for the halting of the construction of any future heavy water reactor’s as well as any current construction, in return for Europe helping (meaning building and paying most of the cost) Iran build several light water reactors.

·         ZARQAWI ANALYSIS We had mentioned earlier that a popular theory about Al-Qaeda etc. was somewhat off the point. Analysts have been saying Al-Qaeda has reconstituted itself by promoting people to take over from those killed/captured. The problem for Al-Qaeda is that good terrorist leaders are not made in a year or even five. It can take a decade, sometimes more. Now, in the Army when a senior officer is killed, the next senior takes over. But the Army is an organization built to take significant damage. Al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups are not exactly in the same category when it comes to reconstituting after heavy damage. The new people coming up are likely to be much less skilled, particularly since so many 2nd rank leaders have also been killed/captured. The efficiency of the terrorist organization goes down.

·         Moreover, terrorist groups are built around charismatic leaders. Your Army can lose its top general and no one in the Army will notice. Soldiers are part of an institution and are not followers of a leader.

·         The obvious example is Che Guevara: when he was killed, communist Latin American insurgencies took such a serious loss that they were basically finished.

·         That Zarqawi is promoting people is a good sign. He's losing his skilled commanders. A top Zarqawi aide was captured in Baghdad, and one can reasonably assume he gave up vital information that has or will lead to the capture of other people. This new man's capture is going to cost Zarqawi a lot more than just losing a senior aide.

·         We wanted to point out another obvious matter. When an important terrorist is captured, his interrogation is not conducted  by the people who arrested him. So there is no  easy way out for him, say  by being beaten to death by out-of-control soldiers. He will talk, and will keep on talking, when people like the CIA get him.

0400 GMT October 23, 2004

·         FALLUJAH Aircraft and artillery strikes against Fallujah continue. US forces have been using loudspeakers to warn the locals to give upn insurgent leaders.

·         PALESTINE The inevitable hot air from Palestine terrorists when one of their leaders is killed by the Israel. This time they promise "very severe" consequences for the killing of the Hamas military chief in Gaza. We are not sure what is worse: the endless words that emanate from the terrorists' mouths, or the trash that comes out of the mouths of extremist Jewish settlers.

·         ISRAEL Should we be surprised that some Israeli rabbis have begun telling Israeli Defense Force soldiers that they must not carry out orders to remove settlers from Palestine. It would be immoral for soldiers to participate, say the rabbis. Our personal opinion is that the Israeli Defense Force is unlikely to give the slightest consideration to any please by refusnik soldiers who say their rabbi told them to disobey orders. This may come as a surprise to the extremist rabbis, but they don't run the Army.

·         INDIA'S MOST WANTED BANDIT Again, this story has nothing to do with terrorism or conflicts around the globe, but it is another indication that it isn't only Americans who live in la-la land. A few days ago police in the Indian state of Tamil Nadu finally managed to trap and kill India's most wanted bandit. This gentleman has himself murdered/order the murder of hundreds of people: police, suspects in his own organizations, kidnap victims whose families did not pay ransom, and so on.

·         Now his wife is going to sue the state government because the police got the bandit by laying a trap.

·         So how were the police supposed to get the man? By hanging lollipops on jungle trees so that the bandit with the hope the bandit would get addicted to the candy and turn himself in to get more?

·         If the suit isn't idiotic enough - and the court will immediately dismiss the suit - this lady now wants the State government to provide her daughters and herself a pension. You see, she says, my husband made millions of dollars in crime money. But I don't know where it is and his death has left me penniless.

0400 GMT October 22, 2004

·         FALLUJAH Agencies say US aircraft and artillery continued hitting Fallujah; the Marines say insurgent weapons stores are being targeted.

·         An obvious if unstated objective of the US air and artillery attacks is the rather obvious one of driving civilians out, and thinning insurgent ranks. We are a bit surprised that Fallujah civilians have not been told to leave via established checkpoints, with military age men being detained for the duration.

·         We assume that negotiations are still continuing.

·         PALESTINE An Israeli helicopter killed the senior Hamas leader in Gaza and his chief aide. The Hamas leader is believed to be behind the rocket attacks on Israelis. The AFP reports says two "rockets" were fired, Debka says a single missile was used.

·          A GOOD STORY The news we report every day is either grim or grotesque. Today we note an item from Debka that has nothing to do the war on terror or even  the modern world. Instead the story is touching in a unique manner. A diary kept by a teen-age Jewish girl in the Netherlands has come to light. The diary covers her 3 months in a detention facility where she waited transfer to a death camp. This is a bit different from a concentration camp, where many prisoners survived the war: people were sent to the camp for execution, and that she was a child, watching other children taken away till her turn came, does not seem to have moved anyone to pity. The diary, with a lock of her hair,  was in the possession of her Dutch boyfriend since 1943, and surfaced only on his death.

·         Now, before our readers reach for the Kleenex, our comment has nothing to do with the love story. It has, instead to do, with her boyfriend's decision to keep the last months of her life secret - and therefore - private, until his death.

·         We find almost impossible to accept that in today's crass commercial media world, this man gave up hundreds of thousands of dollars, if not millions, by going public with a big media company. He chose not to defile her memory rather than get money and publicity.

·         CLINTON EYES UN POST At a moment your editor's defenses were at the lowest - his wife has, in 27 years of leaving him, for the first time actually set a date - reader Mike Thompson drops this UPI bomb: Bill Clinton is seeking the top UN post when Mr. Annan leaves in 2006. This is bad enough, but worse follows: UPI says that just about all that stands in the way of his appointment is if Mr. Bush wins. If Mr. Kerry wins, the implication is that Mr. Clinton has all but got the job.

·         Your editor's first reaction was to crawl to the refreshment cabinet for four quick double-shots of Tennessee rotgut bourbon. He can now consider this matter objectively.

·         Everyone accepts that Mr. Clinton is the most loveable senior statement this side of Anno Domino. Some of us, however, believe that Mr. Clinton should stick to doing what he does best: being a supersized stuffed teddy bear.

·         Now, your editor would certainly be unhappy if one of his four teddy bears decided to run for the top UN post. The bears are very cute, but lack - shall we say - what it takes to be Secretary General of the UN in these times.

·         But after another two double shots, your editor sees the matter even more clearly. If Mr. Clinton gets the post, this might actually be a GOOD THING for the United States - it clearly will be so for the world. Consider the positives.

·         Mr. Clinton can outtalk anyone in the world. He would be highly effective in getting resolutions passed, because in the 84th consecutive hour of his speech, even the US delegate would cave in and accept the resolution.

·         Next, the one thing that has prevented the UN from being as effective as it might have been is that the US has very frequently worked at cross-purposes with the organization. Any casual observer of Iraq will be easily convinced that the US need immediate hospitalization in Bedlam, but even then, no one can make the UN work if the US is determined to thwart it.

·         Third, if Mr. Bush does win, he can be certain that Mr. Clinton will be safely locked away, unable to make trouble for the Republicans. A double term would take Mr. Clinton to 2018 and effectively remove him from the domestic political stage.

·         Last, the prospect has to appeal to Mrs. Clinton. With husband Bill in the UN, there is no chance he will renege on his promise he will not compete with her for her hoped-for two terms as US president,  2008-2016.

·         Oh yes: for those of our readers who get a kick out of the UN's antics and the puffery of its members, no better fun than having Bozo the Clown lead the Clown Parade. We personally don't think that way. Your editor's angle is that having a former US President run the UN will be a great help in finishing up the establishment of the American world empire.

0330 GMT October 21, 2004

·         LEBANON The Lebanese Prime Minister resigned because of differences with the president, who is in effect a Syrian puppet. Damascus managed to get the President's term extended another three years. AFP adds the crisis comes at a time the UN and US/UK/France are putting pressure on Syria to withdraw its remaining 16,000 troops in Lebanon. The US and French ambassadors have called for a government free of Syrian interference.

·         SOUTH WAZIRISTAN Pakistani troops closed in on another town in the troubled region, seeking to kill or capture Abdulla Masud, most lately of Guantanamo Bay and released from captivity. His group kidnapped  two Chinese engineers; one hostage was rescued but one was killed during the rescue operation.

·         Separately, Jang of Pakistan reports that two Al Qaeda operatives were captured. One is on the US's most wanted list; the other is a senior leader in the new Al Qaeda setup.

·         AFGHAN VOTE Debka. com says with more than half the Afghan vote counted, Mr. Karzai has 60% of the vote as against 17% of his only serious challenger.

 

0600 GMT October 20, 2004

·         PAKISTAN Today there is little real news except from Pakistan.

·         WAZIRISTAN CASUALTIES In what is probably a first for any subcontinental army, General Officer Commanding Pakistan XI Corps held a press conference in which he said that Pakistan Army and Frontier Corps lost 171 men in operations against rebels and foreign terrorists in South Waziristan district of the North West Frontier Province. 246 militants including 100 foreigners were killed. 576 militants were arrested, and 35 operations were mounted.

·         This open admission of losses and the hugely unfavorable exchange ratio, plus a frank statement the rebels/terrorists have changed their tactics, making a clear implication there is more fighting ahead, is unprecedented in the region.

·         Your editor is shocked at the exchange ratio. In Indian Kashmir on some days the exchange ratios are unfavorable, with Indian security forces losing almost as many men as the insurgents, but over all the ratio varies between 1: 3 and 1:6 - approximately - in favor of the security forces. Pakistan security forces were using all heavy weapons available - rocket launchers, tube artillery, attack helicopters, UAVs, and fighter strikes. Indian forces in Kashmir are very tightly constrained in the weapons they can use for fear of collateral damage.

·         We've written to our Pakistan correspondents to ask about the ratio. In the meanwhile, it seems to us the Pakistan Army as grown overconfident in past years. The rebels/terrorists, taking advantage of their intimate knowledge of terrain, and their willingness to stand and fight it out with the Pakistan forces, have done very well.

·         A similar situation happened to India when it sent 4 divisions to Sri Lanka to help the government fight the secessionist LTTE rebels. The Indian Army has a long and proud tradition of combat, and it believed a bunch of ragtag rebels would simply give up once a few shots had been fired and a little blood - the rebels' - had been shed. So the Army went in totally unprepared and took initial heavy losses because the ragtags knew the ground and knew how to dance around their heavier opponent. Also, of course, the ragtags had been well trained - by the Indian Army.

·         When the Kashmir insurgency first exploded, the Indian security forces were taking horrible casualties - they were inflicting more than they took, but crack long-term professionals are not supposed to say "we won because we killed 12 of them and we lost 8". But bit by bit the Army and the paramilitary forces settled in, wiped out the indigenous insurgents, and have proceeded to wipe out the foreign insurgents from Pakistan and other countries. Still, the insurgency began in 1987, and it is now 2004. There is a lesson for the Americans here.

·         Incidentally, including Iraq, a single Indian division committed in the Northeast, 8th Mountain, had more battalion years of CI experience than the entire American Army since 1945. Vietnam very quickly became a conventional war, so a lot of those battalion years don't count. Put together, the Indians have more battalion years of CI experience than any army in the world. It's odd the Indian Army never mentions this.

·         SIBI, BALUCHISTAN We'd mentioned some time ago that there was trouble in this remote area of Pakistan once the Pakistan Army started anti-Afghan rebel sweeps to starting intruding on the locals so that secure American bases can be expanded/built. We have an extremely garbled report from Jang of Pakistan, a masterpiece in opacity, and what we can make out is this: a former senior police at Sibi, the equivalent of a two-star general, was shot dead by bandits. For unclear reasons, the authorities decided to merge two of the police forces that operate in the area as a reaction to this murder. One police force did not like its new orders, and has seized 4 police stations. In the normal world, this is called a mutiny. The Pakistan authorities are talking to the mutineers, and have assured the citizenry that if the mutineers will not vacate the police stations, the authorities will - build new police stations! We have no clue what's going on, but will say that we would not be reassured about our safety if we lived in the area.

INDIA AND ITS INSURGENCIES, REBELLIONS, MUTINIES

·         UTTAR PRADESH POLICE MUTINY Back in the 1970s, in some towns of Uttar Pradesh, the armed police constabulary mutinied. The Army was sent in, shoot to kill orders issued, and the Army followed its orders. There were psychiatric casualties among officers and troops because the had to kill so many policemen.

·         This tactic the Indians learned from the British. Whenever the Indians revolted, a wholesale massacre of rebels and anyone suspected of being sympathetic to them would take place. It would become a "kill them all and let God take his own".

·         HYDERABAD REBELLION When the state of Hyderabad rebelled against joining the Indian Union in the aftermath of Independence from the British, the Army was sent in. Now, frankly your editor was so appalled at what he was told decades after the rebellion that he has never had the nerve to do more historical research. Readers who know better are most welcome to correct your editor.

·         Apparently, added to the usual strict way in which rebels were dealt with in India, there was an irregular Hyderabad armed levy that went berserk and started committing unspeakable atrocities against sections of the populace. The Army went after the levy, and any person caught with weapons, or any person pointed out by the locals as being responsible for the atrocities, was simply executed on the spot. No trials, no burden of proof, no procedures - well, that's not correct, because the procedure was that anyone with weapons or suspects were to be executed on the spot.

·         KASHMIR One reason the Indian Army has had so much trouble in Kashmir is that that was then and this is now. "Human rights" are now paramount. As early as 1994 - if we recall right - 17 Army officers including colonels and generals had been court-martialled for failure to control their men on CI operations. The Army never discusses these punishment with the press or the public, it is a matter of policy, so readers can image the chagrin with which the Indian Army greeted the foreign "human rights" activists that began to swarm all over the Kashmir Valley, the nice touristy part, "investigating" the Army.

·         The Army could not say a word in its defense, and eventually the Government of India simply kicked out the foreigners. We know the Indian Army would be very happy to hear how many general officers those great bastions of human rights, the United States, UK, Europe have court-martialled for HR violations. We're talking senior officers, not even the junior officers and the men.

·         Come on now, people, don't be shy to tell us how many senior  officers have been punished for Abu Gharib, and lets not forget the vast legions of offricers that went down in Vietnam. Bah.

·         The point of our telling this story is that as a result of the sensitive approach, 60,000 civilians, insurgents, and soldiers have been killed in a state of about 6 million people, over a period of 17 years. And many of those people were truly innocent.

·         PUNJAB In the Punjab insurgency,  a tiny percentage of terrorists, perhaps 1-2000 hard core, intimidated the entire state by wholesale killing. 1000 civilians murdered a month was quite normal at one time. Things were getting seriously out of control. Terrorists were killing police, their families, judges, court officials, witnesses, with impunity. In one massacre, over 4 dozen members of a policeman's joint family were killed in their house - women, children old men, babies.

·         A police officer by the name of KPS Gill was brought in. He authorized a policy where terrorists were captured and they gave names of people on the nearby village who had helped them. The police would raid the village, pull the men out, and execute them. As for the terrorists - well, the police would give them a very fair three second head-start to run, and then  gun them all down.

·         Horrible? Yes. Brutal? Definitely. Were many people who could not be convicted in the Indian courts killed? Absolutely. But you know what? It worked. The insurgency vanished. The people of the Punjab whole heartedly supported this policy, though of course families of men taken away tried then and continue to try to get recourse, regardless of if the men were truly innocent or guilty.

·         Unwanted piece of advice to the good citizens of the United States. Think about the Punjab versus Kashmir, as every day innocent people are killed in the tens, the dozens, in Iraq. You won't compromise your HR standards and your conscience. Lovely. But for every American killed, there are 10 or more locals killed and 100 more who aid the rebels or keep quiet for fear of being killed. Please visit Iraq and tell the ordinary Iraqis about your high standards. We're sure they'd love to hear you tell them how you are bringing human rights to their country. And imagine how excited they will be learn you have put on trial soldiers who mistreated robbers, bandits, murderers and rapists. And how you have under trial soldiers who inadvertently killed terrorists they had under interrogation. The Iraqis will be so uplifted.

·         Personally, from what our American readers tell us, the majority of Americans would feel a lot better if the Army and Government  arrested and chained a few colonels, generals, and - do we dare say it  - a few Pentagon bureaucrats. In India it wasn't as if a battalion commander went and killed a civilian with his own hands. It was enough that men under his command committed serious HR violations. Saying "I didn't know" just didn't cut the mustard. Sorry about that.

0200 GMT October 19, 2004

·         FALLUJAH The local cleric arrested a few days ago has been released and media reports that the fighting seems less intense. Before we start blaming the US for flip-flopping, we have to keep in mind that US forces now take orders from the Iraq government, and this fight-kiss-fight-kiss style is typical of the region. We've seen it hasn't worked in Pakistan, but it has on occasion worked in Iraq, so perhaps we should give the Iraq government the benefit of the doubt. In any case, we know from previous experience the US uses ceasefires and negotiations as an opportunity to infiltrate its target, and indeed, reader Joseag238 says his California news station says the Marines and Iraq Special Forces have been observed slipping into the industrial suburb of Fallujah where much of resistance is based.

·         JUMBLED NEWS LINES Reader Kent Fevurly writes: "Just an FYI concerning those jumbled lines of print you used to see in newspapers.  Those are test lines made by typesetters back when type was set manually.  Once in a while, a type setter would forget to remove his test line when the page was set, and a line of gibberish would appear in the newspaper. People came up with all sorts of imaginative explanations for this, but, as usual, reality was more prosaic. Nowadays, pages are set by computer, so the only lines of gibberish in the papers are those produced by idiot journalists!". Darn. Another good conspiracy theory ruined by the facts.

·         BLACK WATCH TO BAGHDAD? Reader K.G. Kidmerpool sends us a slew of news. Planning is well under way for the Black Watch's shift and a liaison team is arriving in the capital today. Meanwhile, reader Joseag238 tells us his California news station reports that the Queen's Dragoon Guards are to depart Germany to replace the Black Watch.

·         A BBC analysis says that Mr. Blair is not thinking about Mr. Bush's reelection campaign  but of aiding a close ally. BBC was more concerned about the command/cultural problems of operating with the Marines, who in any case function quite differently from the Army.

·         The UK Telegraph says that the local force the Marines raised to support them at Fallujah has not turned out well. The Marines say about half the 140 man force spy for the insurgents, and they have arrested five men, including the captain. Readers will recall we had approvingly quoted a US News&World Report story about the force, and now we're wondering did so much change in just 3-4 weeks or did USN&WR gets its story wrong? Between the Telegraph and USN&WR we would have to choose the Telegraph.
 

0300 GMT October 18, 2004

AN EVENING OF RANDOM WANDERINGS

[for real news, scroll down]

·         AL-QAEDA A HOAX? Reader Michael Thompson sends a provocative article from the UK Guardian concerning a series of TV news specials on terrorism that have been made by a Britisher. This gentleman argues there is no Al-Qaeda except what the US has created. The more the US keeps linking hither thither and yon groups to Al-Qaeda, the "stronger" Al-Qaeda gets. As part of his argument, he notes  that 9/11 was a one-off operation, and nothing has happened in the US after that.

·         The thesis is, of course, not new, but at least from what he can see in the article, the argument has been painstakingly and carefully researched and thought-out.

·         So if we all watch the series, will Al-Qaeda and terror just evaporate?

·         The shortest way of explaining why the US is building up Al-Qaeda is to understand the US government needs a brand name that its people can mobilize against. By now even the most blindly loyal patriots among us have figured out there is something fishy about Al-Qaeda, because it seems to be a bogeyman who hides in the closet but doesn't do much. In any case, we are by now educated enough to know that "Al-Qaeda" is simply a way of defining a concept, rather than an actual group of people.

·         Without creating a brand, the US government will have a very hard time keeping its people  focused on the task of defeating terror. We have to remember that for years the intelligence people have been warning that more and more terror groups, generally Islamic, were getting organized. No one, not even the US president, paid much heed to this.

·         It is the nature of democracy that it needs a sharply focused threat if it is to fight, otherwise 60,000 experts will come up with 60,000 reasons not to do anything. The manner in which France absolutely hid its head in the sand about the German threat in the interwar years is a perfect example. Lest some of us say "well, that's the French", remember how the British too closed their eyes. As for the US, the less said the better. With Hitler sitting triumphant on top of Europe, a huge number of Americans still insisted the European war was not America's business.  But for Pearl Harbor, as with 9/11, the American public would not have closed ranks and acted.

·         Your editor, at least, has no problem accepting the Guardian's thesis, and equally no problem in rejecting it. Terror exists, it is real. We have a bunch of people who are getting their jollys killing people, and more to the point, we have a lot of people mouthing Islamic slogans who are plain simple criminals.

·         Now, we could argue till the cows come home - your editor has no cows, so that means he can argue forever - that the US created this problem just by itself. Islamic fundamentalism grew on American dollars and American arms during the Afghan war; America encouraged the fundamentalism and used it. Now the monsters that were created are attacking the west. You can bring in Israel, Iraq, whatever.

·         But none of that is going to change the reality that the Soviet Union had to be taken down. Nor is self-flagellation going to change the reality that some people want to hurt America in particular and western civilization in general. If America does not go all over the world grabbing and killing anyone who looks like an Islamic terrorist, sooner or later another bunch of bright lads will come up with something that could kill 30,000 Americans, and after that someone would try for 300,000 and so on. Indeed, it is a good thing the terrorists are quite incompetent, because it is frighteningly easy to kill hundreds of thousands of people if a small, dedicated team of people puts their mind to it.

·         Nonetheless, it is a good thing to question ourselves constantly about how America and the west is fighting terror. Otherwise we're going to fall into the trap of rigidity, and a rigid object is brittle. Wars are won by flexibility. An absolute honesty as to what we are doing is essential to that flexibility.

·         AND SPEAKING OF HOAXES Back in the old days, when you editor was young and his friends and he saw conspiracies at every street corner - we were just trying to prove to ourselves we were smarter than the average person because WE KNEW things were afoot while they idled their lives away like animals raised for food - it used to be said that if it weren't were for the FBI, there would be no Communist Party of the United States. This is because government undercover agents has infiltrated the party in such large numbers, that their dues were keeping the organization afloat. Then there was Students for A Democratic Society, which a rather bright shade of pink in its beliefs and actions, and which was causing the US government endless headaches because it was becoming a well-organized anti-war movement. One day someone "leaked" that the US government had been putting money into SDS, and whether that is true or not, SDS collapsed. Your editor was away when this happened, so perhaps someone else better informed can tell the story.

·         Anyway, your editor was reminded of his salad days when he saw this item on the AFP site: "In a chilling message, Iraq's most wanted man, Abu Mussab al-Zarqawi, and his Unity and Holy War group purportedly pledged their loyalty to Al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden, in a statement posted on an Islamist website." In your editor's personal opinion, the likelihood of this being a real development is about as likely as the Vatican is about to bless gay marriages. We've often wondered about these Islamic websites. Websites are not difficult to take down.  Ah, a friend of ours says, but those sites provide a window into the minds of our enemies. If we took them down we'd be harming our own anti-terror effort." By now your editor has learned there's no use arguing with conspiracy theorists, private or government. Your editor's response to his friend was: "Whatever, dude, I'm just worried that the  mothership that's supposed to take me home to Mars has forgotten to pick me up".

·         JUST ONE MORE STORY Due to old age, your editor's mind wanders a lot, but he prides himself on wandering on task, so as to speak. In the 1950s many of your editor's American friends  believed that the government and private corporations were flashing subliminal messages during Hollywood movies. Kill A Kommie. Drink Koke. Whatever. One day, one of our gang said: "Fellows, there are no subliminal messages because what you take to be messages are simply the normal flicker of 36 frames a second -" or whatever the figure is. We were impressed. "I have found the REAL subliminal messages the corporations and government feed to us," he added. "Look at the newspapers: every day you will find a line of print that makes no sense because it's just a jumble of letters and truncated words." We looked, and Lo! there were many such lines in many newspapers. "The brainwashing messages are contained in those lines".

·         Your editor would like to say we all responded by saying: "Real heavy, man", but in those days we didn't talk like that. We all had crewcuts, wore jackets and ties at all times, smoked horrible Russian cardboard cigarettes - none of that  pansy French unfiltered stuff for us, we were real men - and drank copious quantities of vodka - beer was for sissies. Come to think of it, your editor hasn't seen those jumbled up lines in the newspapers for many years - maybe THEY figured out WE knew.
 

AND FINALLY, SOME REAL NEWS

·         FALLUJAH Real news from Fallujah remains elusive. The US launched seven air strikes against Fallujah targets. US troops have not entered the city, but have been taken under fire from the city, and have responded with tank and artillery fire. We've seen this pattern before, in Najaf, and assume similar tactics will be used here: wipe out the resistance one house at a time. The locals continue to flee. Power and water have been cut off - we've seen this in all the towns/cities the US has recently laid siege to. Incidentally, some one tells us that a lot of times when the US is shooting up a place these days the intent is to infiltrate snipers forward, and the gunfire serves to provide a diversion. The snipers then sanitize the area and the troops roll in. Is this true?

·         UK TROOPS TO BAGHDAD Gareth Bowman adds to his last dispatch from the UK: "one thing that has been mentioned in regards to the movement of British troops to Baghdad is the question of what 600 UK troops can do that 135,000 US
troops can't? The suggestion has been made that this has nothing to do with necessity, and everything to do with Tony Blair giving the Bush re-election campaign a boost by having non-us troops in the dangerous areas. naturally
this has been denied by the health secretary and cabinet hard man, John Reid, but it is an interesting thought."

·         Simultaneously, Debka says UK troops have been seen leaving Basra and headed for Baghdad. There could be any number of reasonable explanations for what Debka saw; we prefer readers wait for more information.

·         US ABM INTERCEPTORS IN UK? Gareth Bowman also speaks of reports that the US has asked the UK to accept American basing of ABM missiles. The prospect will arose much opposition in the UK. At the same time, there will be people in UK/Europe/Russia who will welcome the makings of an ABM shield for the region.

·         SYRIA A number of our readers have been sending in articles saying that insurgents using Syria as safe haven have been firing mortars at US troops patrolling the border. The purpose would be to cover the regular criminal smuggling as well as the smuggling of insurgents and weapons. The reports say that Syria does not seem particularly bothered about policing its frontier.

 

0330 GMT October 17, 2004

·         FALLUJAH We have almost no news of Fallujah because it seems the media has taken Saturday off. We are unclear why they deserve any days off in the first place.

·         A local cleric says the Fallujah Council is ready to resume negotiations if the US stops air strikes and releases the cleric arrested the other day. In our opinion, the chances of Iraq/US accepting this deal are about the same as Mr. Nader's winning the US election. The Council has had its chance, we suggest their time would be better spent in getting out of Fallujah while they can.

·         HAITI: DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN While our attention has been focused on Iraq, we have missed the story in Haiti. The last hurricane left 200,000 people in dire straits. And the 10th anniversary of Mr. Aristide's accession to power has arrived. Both events combined seem to have coalesced into a dangerous situation. Former soldiers, who were not disarmed by the US Marines before the contingent left in June, are now assuming control of areas in various towns, saying they will do the job of the police. In Port-au-Prince, unknown parties have been targeting police; 10 officers have been murdered in the last two weeks. On Saturday gunfire on some scale was heard in the capital.

·         The UN force is accused of being timid and not controlling  the rapidly escalating violence and disorder. The problem is, the UN force is there as peacekeepers, not as peacemakers, and this problem has arisen many times before, most dramatically during the Balkan Wars and the Rwanda genocide.

·         Meantime, the State Department spokesperson urges faster deployment of UN troops, so that the total of 5100 can be reached by November. Unasked for advice to US State Department: if all you have is words, kindly take yourself off somewhere else. We at Orbat.com, at least, are quite fed-up at the manner in which the US simply blows off its global responsibilities when black countries are at risk.

·         Some of our readers will ask: is the US supposed to do everything?  Well, when other countries cannot, yes, the US must do everything. This is the price of imperial power.  Your editor 100% supports the concept of a US global hegemony as a means of bringing peace to the world so that we can get on with the 21st Century. No one is going to convince him that a country with an $11 trillion GNP and a population approaching 300-million cannot police the world.

·         In moral terms, it becomes near impossible for us to ideologically support the US attempt to remake the Muslim world when the US is basically ignoring the black countries. Dafur continues in desperate condition, Haiti may be going to pieces again, the Congo is in a terrible mess - we could go on here. Injustice inflicted by authoritarian elites on their people is injustice whether the venue is Baghdad or Port-au-Prince. If the US was short of resources, the matter might be different because prioritization would be crucial. The US is not short of resources. Its time for Washington to stop making excuses, and Mr. Richard Boucher to stop making pointless exhortations.

·         THE EUROPEANS OFFER TEHERAN A BRIBE...The European trio - UK, France, Germany - are at it again with their independent solution to Teheran's nuclear weapon program. They have offered unspecified bribes if Teheran will allow the IAEA in everywhere.

·         The bankruptcy of US credibility worldwide becomes apparent when we learn that of all people, the US is backing the European bribe. Oh sorry, we meant initiative, that was tasteless of us to call a spade a spade. If the US hadn't gotten itself such a mess in Iraq, there would be no need for it to be reduced to being the wagging tail on the European dog. The idea was to knock off Iraq, then Iran, then Syria, and at some point while this was going on, DPRK. It was an excellent idea. Thank you Mr. Rumsfeld, Mr. Pearle, Mr. Wolfowitz for crippling America at exactly the point America needed to be strong.

·         ...AND TEHERAN ALLOWS THE EUROPEANS TO DISCUSS THE BRIBE... Teheran is willing to discuss what it will be paid.

·         ...BUT IT HAS TO BE SOMETHING FOR NOTHING Nonetheless, Teheran will not suspend uranium enrichment, it says.

·         Hey, under the circumstances above even your editor is willing to be bribed. Give him money, and he lets you kiss his left big toe in return.

·         The Iranians say they are not Libya, their civilization is thousands of years old. Must send note to Iran Foreign office: so is Iraq. And your point is?

·         Your editor used to gag at the Indian government's rhetoric when Delhi was justifying its "Peaceful Nuclear Explosion". But the Indians were never so absurd as to refer to their thousands of years of civilization in connection with their nuclear program. It is said one appreciates one's country better when sitting at a distance from it...your editor has to admit the Iranian government has made him appreciate his own government a  bit more than he is wont to do.

0330 GMT October 16, 2004

·         FALLUJAH Confusion prevails over the situation in Fallujah. The US denies that this is the start of its offensive. People are fleeing in greater numbers. US/Iraq have surrounded the city. A cleric who was negotiating for the Fallujah Council has been arrested by US forces. Some sources say two Marine battalions are involved, not the one Marine and one Army as we reported yesterday.

·         See story below that would indicate the offensive has indeed not started.

·         Fallujah leaders say Zarqawi is not in Fallujah, which is a bit odd, because yesterday they were saying they had no clue where he was and the Americans were being unreasonable in demanding the locals hand him over. On of these days, simply by random chance, a statement of the Fallujah Council will turn out to be true. We are not waiting with bated breath.

·         UK TROOPS FOR BAGHDAD? Gareth Bowman, our news page Assistant Editor, writes from the UK "British military sources have said that the US has formally requested British troops assist in other parts of the country, to allow stretched US troops to take part in the upcoming Battle of Falluja. Although it seems likely that this will happen, there is some resistance to the idea within the British Army for several reasons.

·         First, the British Army doesn't relish the idea of being dragged into areas where US troops have done much to upset locals. Secondly, the idea of mission creep is concerning some officials, that the original mission to Basra is being supplemented, and when Polish troops withdraw the mission creep could well carry on. Thirdly, British forces are already stretched, and taking on additional missions could compromise efforts in Basra, and other military commitments elsewhere in the world.

·         The battalion that looks likely to be deployed is one of the most famous and oldest regiments in the British Army, 1st Bn., The Black Watch (Royal Highland
Regiment). Incidentally, this regiment could well be disbanded in the upcoming Army reorganization."

·         BBC says UK Parliament is demanding government inform it what the situation is, and mentions Baghdad as the likely destination for the British troops.

·         It would appear from Mr. Bowman's story and the BBC  US forces are not fully deployed for the Fallujah offensive.

·         ISRAELI ARMY LEAVES GAZA BBC says Israeli Army withdraws from Gaza after 16-day operation. Part of the reason is the Army feels it has met its objectives, part is because of Ramadan, which began yesterday.

·         A MUTINY OF SORTS? CNN reports 17 men from a fuel transport company in Iraq refused to go on a supply run. Families of the men say they refused because there is inadequate protection and their equipment is in poor state. US Army has ordered a maintenance stand down for the unit, which means it is investigating, but no one is under arrest.

·         We will forgo the usual comments as there is nothing we can say that hasn't been said before in similar situations. We believe, though, that most situations of mutiny or refusal to follow orders arise because of poor leadership.

·         US NAVY BEGINS RADAR PICKET OFF DPRK NEXT WEEK AP reports the US 7th Fleet will start patrolling off DPRK next week to provide early warning of missile launches. Aegis destroyers will maintain the patrol, which looks to become a permanent operation. We still remain unclear if the destroyers can intercept launched missiles or is this a capability for coming years.

 

0330 GMT October 15, 2004

·         MARINES, ARMY ATTACK FALLUJAH MSNBC reports that one Marine and one Army battalion attacked Fallujah late yesterday after Fallujah residents suspended talks with Baghdad. Iraqi special forces were also participating. There is no indication that this is the long-awaited offensive.

·         Nonetheless, if we accept the statement of a US I MEF spokesperson [CNN report] , that the Marines have been looking forward to this occasion, we can infer this is the big push.

·         The sticking point in negotiations was Mr. Allawi's demand that the locals hand over the terrorist Zarqawi. A Fallujah Council representative said that when even the Americans couldn't find him, it was unfair of Baghdad to insist the locals hand him over. "Since we exhausted all peaceful solutions, the city is now ready to bear arms and defend its religion and honor, and it’s not afraid of Allawi’s statements.”   MSNBC says that the Fallujah leader's use of the word "suspended" appears to leave room for resumption of talks.

·         On the surface, the leader's words sound reasonable. If the US cannot find Zarqawi, how can the locals? Is it indeed not unreasonable for Baghdad to impose this condition, knowing it cannot be met?

·         The problem is if you let the Iraqis start justifying things, the sun will have gone nova and the universe gone cold before they stop. The leader's words are a masterpiece of double-speak that no American can ever hope remotely to approach.

·         The Fallujah Council knows exactly where Zarqawi is, whatever the problem, this is not it. We suspect that part of the problem is that the locals will have to fight to get Zarqawi. They will suffer losses, as will their families, because of the Iraqi habit of fighting from among civilians.

·         Our response? Too darn bad. If the Fallujah residents hadn't let Zarqawi inside, they wouldn't have a problem. Instead, the spokesperson is still behaving as if Fallujah is not part of Iraq, and as if he was doing Baghdad a favor by even talking to the government. The locals gladly welcomed Zarqawi because they could use him against the center. Now it's time they pay the price.

·         Unasked for advise to Fallujah Council. Sirs, if you wish to sleep the long sleep, please do take up your guns and fight. The only reason the Marines suspended their April offensive is that Iraqis and the world - the latter spurred on by the media - were talking about civilian casualties. Sirs, have you noticed something? US/Iraqi forces have retaken several cities. Was any of these operations suspended because of civilian casualties? No. Has anyone not reading the fine print of media reports even noticed there must have been heavy civilian losses in all these operations? No. There is no one now to stop the Americans from fighting the way they want to, and you are as good as dead. So, Sirs, like good Muslims, pay your debts in the next few hours or days.  Now may be the last chance you'll have.

·         REALITIES ON THE GROUND Reader Chris Lock sends this note: "You are probably aware that HQ XVIII Corps and the 82nd Airborne Division are preparing to deploy to Iraq to take over HQ III Corps and the 1st Cavalry Division.

·         "My best friend is going back to Iraq for the 3rd time for OIF III.  He is with the 3/7 Cav, 3rd Infantry Division.  He was in Gulf War I, OIF I and Somalia.  The other of our old neighborhood triumvirate is with the 2/503 PIR, 173rd Airborne Brigade.  He spent 14 months is Iraq and will be going to Afghanistan later this year/early next year for a 1 year tour. And then there is me, out of the service, back home."

·         The note is sufficiently eloquent not to require our comment.

 

0330 GMT October 14, 2004

·         IRAN NUCLEAR Nicholas Krazin sends us this report: " On Iranian enrichment: Flipping a coin will get you the same results as trying to weed through the official comments coming out of the numerous agencies and individuals within the Iranian government. Last week, the Iranian ambassador to the IAEA said that they were one step closer to having the nuclear material needed for a weapon. This week the Foreign Minister said that, “suspension of uranium enrichment which was agreed upon in Tehran still continues.” Along with the constant double-speak, Iranian leaders seem to be putting all the pressure on Europe to “make it’s move,” whatever that means. Iran looks to be asking for a bribe to put a halt to all its nuclear activities, much as North Korea did in the 90’s."

·         IRAQ US and Iraqi forces launched two sweeps around Baquba to clear the area of insurgents. CNN reports 10 raids were conducted in this town of 4000. Five wanted men were arrested, as were five others. CNN says US troops attempted to gather intelligence from the locals and to gauge their mood. They thanked residents after searching their houses and flagged the houses with  white ribbons.

·         It would help if CNN would tell us what the point of the white ribbons is.

·         Meanwhile, Debka says US is ready to begin offensives against Fallujah, Ramadi, Latafiya, and Balad. Debka says Zarqawi's website showed the beheading of two Iraqi intelligence agents. Iraqi PM Allawi has warned the people of Fallujah to give up Zarqawi or face the consequences.

·         Yesterday Washington Post reported that serious rifts have opened up between foreign fighters and Fallujah citizens. The latter have killed some foreign fighters in shoot-outs, and want the fighters to leave. In any operation against Fallujah the cooperation of the locals will be important, and it seems as if after the occupation by foreigners, the cooperation be forthcoming.

·         NATO IN AFGHANISTAN Apparently the matter of NATO taking over the Afghan mission from the US is not as clear cut as we thought yesterday. AFP says France and Germany are expressing reservations.

·         ISRAEL IN GAZA The UK Foreign Secretary condemned Palestinian terror against Israel, but said Israel must respond proportionately.

·         We have many times indicated that we are not too thrilled about Israeli policy in Palestine. At the same time, we do not think anyone but the Israelis can determine what is a proportionate response to terrorist attacks on their country.

·         THIRD PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE Your editor spent 3 minutes watching this debate before falling asleep. The debate concerns domestic policy, and as far as your editor is concerned, there was little to choose between the rapid-fire misrepresentations of both candidates. On the off-chance any of our foreign readers cares, we will let you know tomorrow who "won".

0400 GMT October 13, 2004

·         RAMADI MOSQUES RAIDED AFP says US and Iraqi forces raided at least 7 mosques in the Ramadi. Meanwhile, the US attacked two Fallujah targets from the air. In Sadr City the turn-in of weapons by the militia picked up, though the US warns internal disagreements between militia factions could cause problems for the disarmament underway. Agencies say the US made an air attack on a  mosque in Hit because the building was being used by insurgents.

·         We find interesting that mosques, previously sacrosanct even when clearly under insurgent control, are now being freely attacked. This has to be because the US has permission from the Iraq government and because Iraqi forces are taking the lead in entering mosques.

·         ARAFAT COUSIN ESCAPES CAR BOMB A cousin of Yasser Arafat who is responsible for internal security in Gaza escaped an attempt on life which was made using a car bomb. Israel is not suspected, for once: most likely the people involved belong to an anti-Arafat group. Readers will recall that after Israel said it will withdraw from Gaza, factional fighting broke out among the Palestinians. Debka.com attributes the car bomb attempt to Dahlan, who is a rival of Musa Arafat in the struggle to see who controls Palestinian security forces.

·         NATO TO TAKE OVER AFGHAN MISSION? The US has been pressing NATO to take command of the Afghan mission, thus easing pressure on the US Army. AFP says that serious planning has begun for the take over in 2005 or 2006.

0400 GMT October 12, 2004

·         OIL AT $53/BBL Crude oil has increased to $53/bbl due various factors which of late have included hurricane damage to rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, and worker strikes in Nigeria and Norway. The market is unimpressed with OPEC's promise to pump more oil, because it believes OPEC is already pumping about as much as it can.

·         We bring up the news solely to note that oil would have to reach $80/bbl to equal the peak prices after the Iran 1979 revolution. Additionally, the US economy, at least, uses half as much energy per dollar of output as it did 25 years. Pardon us for not getting hot under the collar about the price of oil. Yes, it is highway robbery. But the US has done nothing to reduce its dependence on imported oil.

·         Our advice to our American friends is: Reduce your use, do without, or go fight for your oil. But stop whining. Its fine for you to say you cant drill in your country for fear of environmental damage, and that you cant mine shale oil because the Western states are short of water and because of environmental damage and so on. This a long litany of excuses.

·         The truth is, America uses so much oil because the cost-benefit ratio still favors oil. That's all there is to it.

·         AFGHAN VOTE Objectors to the Afghan vote have said they will accept the outcome. Nonetheless, the UN will hold an inquiry as to what happened on the ink business. Meantime, more observer groups have said the objectors had no right to act as they have done, and to say the poll was unfair, because while it was flawed, it was nonetheless fair.

·         ANOTHER GITMO TERRORIST What a jolly time the American media has had bashing the government on the detainees at Guantanamo. Critics of the US detainee policy might like to read a dispatch in today's Jang of Pakistan. Yet another freed prisoner has arrived back to take up the gun. Abdullah Mahsud is not just very much in action in South Waziristan in Pakistan - kidnapping Chinese engineers is his latest "thing" - he feels comfortable calling the newspaper and giving lengthy interviews. If that isn't bad enough, Jang, which is a sober newspaper, is quite admiring of the man, calling him a "daredevil". Wonder how much he dared the devil when he was in chains in custody.

·         If Americans will understand there is a war on, then they will get hit again. And what are concerned about is that the next time a big terrorist incident occurs, as is is usual with today's Americans, they will completely swing the other way, and innocent Arab-Americans will take the brunt of America's wrath.

·         TERRORISTS IN AMERICA We learn today that some incredibly large number of Muslim charities in America - a figure of 500 was mentioned, but we in no way vouch for it because we don't know if it is true - were found registered to a single office in Virginia. When a person who decided to investigate on his own time went to the office, he found one room, one old gentleman with a long beard, one telephone, the desk, a chair and little else. Talk about hyper efficiency! Hundreds of charities run by one old man! American charities have so much to learn! The visitor managed to distract the old man sufficiently to swipe the contents of the wastebasket, and found letters  including one from our good buddy Mr. Arafat, asking for money. Whoa! We apologize for slandering Mr. Arafat! Of course he did not ask for money for terror operations! He asked for money for his "charities". His favorite one does not have its bank account in Palestine, and the beneficiary is - no points for guessing - himself! Bah. If asked to chose between Mr. Arafat and Mr. Bin Laden, your editor would chose Mr. Bin Laden every time. The man is a killer, a fanatic, and whatever else you may call him, but he's honest. He doesnt put his hand on your wallet every time he embraces you. Bah.