0400 GMT November 30, 2004

· UKRAINE We may be seeing an end soon to Ukraine’s election crisis. The sitting president has called for a new vote. Assuming there is no constitutional bar to this, the outcome of a properly conducted election should be acceptable to the loser next time around.

· KLASSE KLOWNE AWARD We haven’t been able to give this award to anyone for some months now. But today we can honestly give it to a worthy candidate, Mr. Bin Laden’s number two, Dr. Zawahiri, the Mad Doctor of Cairo. He has warned the people of the US: you can elect Bush, you can elect Kerry, you can elect Satan, but we will continue fighting you till America changes its policies. We have to inform this gentleman that the United States constitution does not allow a person to be president of another country while s/he is president of the United States. Nor can the president of another country be the President of the US. Since, your crew has already elected Satan as your president, the distinguished and worthy gentlemen cannot be elected President of the United States. Your punishment for not knowing the most elementary facts about your enemy, the United States: you get the Klasse Klowne hat, now please proceed to the chalk board and write “I will learn more about America before opening my mouth” as many times as is necessary for you to get the point. More on this later.

· CONGO We thought that with everyone pulling out of the DRC the problem of foreign intervention in the Congo was over. Wrong. Another crisis is brewing. Reacting to reports that Rwanda forces have crossed back into eastern DRC has led the DRC government to announce it is sending 6000 troops to the Rwanda border.

· Because we’ve been putting the final touches on Orbat.info’s Concise World Armies 2005, your editor for once actually knows the background to what’s happening.

· After the Rwanda genocide of 1994, the then army was defeated and retreated to eastern DRC. The army and other Hutus who fled Rwanda set up base, and for 8 years had a jolly time robbing the region and sustaining themselves on the proceeds. As DRC had many, many other problems, getting the Rwanda rebels out was a low priority. So the new Rwanda government also pushed in to Eastern DRC, to join in the looting of the region’s resources while occasionally bashing the rebels, who in the rest periods where the looting got too exhausting, would attack government troops in the DRC and back in Rwanda.

· Well, eventually everyone was forced to leave and the UN moved in. For the last two years Rwanda has been telling DRC “kick those rebels out, or we’re coming back to do the job”. DRC has been saying “give us a break, pal. We’re just coming out of almost a decade of civil war where 3-million of our people died, and where 8 countries were involved. We’ve just about managed to get people to cease-fire, we’re trying to integrate all the different Congo armies. We’ll kick the rebel Rwanda lot out, but we can’t do it just yet.”

· Rwanda has been saying no deal. Orbat.com suspects the Rwanda Army generals simply miss all the nice money they were making in Eastern Congo and are using the excuse of the rebels to try and get back.

· Meanwhile, the first of 5,000 reinforcing UN troops has arrived in DRC, to boost the 10,000 already there. The UN force is covering the entire country, keeping the peace between warring DRC faction and cajoling people to cooperate. Most of the force is in the Ituri region in the east to stop the locals from killing each other. More troops are needed in Ituri, so we are unclear how many – if any – can be spared for the Rwanda border. In any case, all the UN troops can do is to shine a flashlight on the filthy dealings of various factions. They can stop the wanton massacre of civilians, who are in the way of the factions. But they cannot disarm the Rwanda rebels. They have no mandate to make the peace: they can only help keep the peace once warring sides agree on a peace. Expect more bad news from this part of the world.

· AFRICA AND AIDS Now, everyone knows Africa has an AIDS crisis, and everyone knows its bad. Today we saw a new figure for how bad. Life expectancy in black Africa is rapidly falling to 30 years, half of what it was before. An entire continent is dying before our eyes. So the promise of the 21^st Century, it turns out, is for everyone except African blacks.

0400 GMT November 29, 2004

· UKRAINE Talks between the official candidate and the opposition candidate to find a way out of the current election impasse are not going well. No details. Meanwhile, the Russian-majority areas of Ukraine are threatening to secede to Russia; one area is calling for a referendum on autonomy.

· DPRK Jang of Pakistan carries an odd story on DPRK. Apparently the 43-year old son of the DPRK general in charge of secret operations has either gone missing or has been murdered.

· A few days ago reader Mike Thompson sent us an equally odd piece. Apparently the dictator’s favorite mistress has died after illness, and (1) the old boy seems to have got a bit unhinged; (2) some of his portraits in offices have been taken down.

· Perhaps none of this means anything. And perhaps something is afoot. Personally, we cannot see how a man claiming to be born on a mountaintop at the end of a rainbow and flights of white birds and what not can get more unhinged than he is already. We at Orbat.com are nonetheless deeply touched that the seemingly invulnerable leader has feelings for another human being. Too bad that he didn’t have any feelings for the up to one-quarter of his people who died in recent famines, because he didn’t want outsiders to think anything was less than idyllic in the Kingdom.

· US ARMY DESERTER The deserter who surrendered to US forces in Okinawa after deserting 4 decades ago has been set free after serving a 30-day sentence. We are grateful that the US Army worked out an outcome both fair and gracious. Justice has been served: the soldier went to jail. At the same time, the Army has chosen not to hound a person who as a youngster cracked up and deserted, only to be held in DPRK for all those years.

· IRAQ As expected, the Iraq Government has refused to postpone the vote set for January 30, 2005. The Kurd parties that joined in the Sunni demand for postponement now say they are comfortable either way.

· THE PROPHET Reader Chris Lock sends an article on a new US Army system, called – interestingly enough – the Prophet. It appears to be a system of extraordinary sophistication. Intended for use by the division commander and by his cavalry commander, Prophet takes input from a variety of army sensor/signal intercept systems and provides an instant Electronic Order of Battle for a division AOR. It can provide the history, so that the commander can know what the EOB was X many hours ago. Though the article does not specifically say so, we assume its real job is to predict where the enemy is going to be by analyzing all the data that is available in all the computer systems on the battlefield and remote HQs.

· If the system was not designed for prediction, we don’t see why its been named the Prophet.

· This system is one of the last steps in making the battlefield transparent to a division commander. The implications for this are mindboggling. An enemy will telegraph his every move in advance. Not just his actual positions, but his INTENTIONS will be known to the division commander. This will give him a tremendous advantage in the battle area. The battle is going to be his to lose. It has the potential of making American ground forces invincible – our guess is it will take others 20 years to catch up with the Prophet and its immediate evolutions.

0001 GMT November 28, 2004

· UKRAINE In a huge boost to the opposition, Ukraine’s Parliament said today the Presidential election did not represent the will of the people.

· Orbat.com comment Apparently the Parliament’s vote is symbolic rather than binding. To stage a new election, not only does Parliament have to vote, the vote has to be cleared by the sitting President - who has the most to lose of he agrees – and by the Supreme Court. Nonetheless, sometimes symbols are as important as actual power. We believe this is one such situation that will further energize the opposition. Meanwhile, representative from every conceivable democratic group are landing up in the country to monitor the situation and to try and talk sense into the President. The latest “power” arrival is the OCSE, a 55-state organization that is seriously averse to rigged elections, and now-a-days spends much of its time working on human and minority rights in Europe.

· KOFI’S BOY STILL ON THE TAKE Mike Thompson sends another news story which will undoubtedly cause Mr. Kofi Annan to gnash his teeth in fury at his son. In the original investigations, the company that employed young Annan, said payments to him stopped in 1999. Now it turns out the payments continued at least to February 2004. The company says it got young Annan to sign a non-competing clause, for which they would pay him $2,500/month, and all it was doing is keeping its part of the bargain.

· Well, folks, Orbat.com’s unasked for advice to you is: Your inane defense is going to cost you between $1 and $5 million in US legal fees – if Congress or the US government decides to ignore the matter. If they do not, you’re either going to find yourself mortgaging your children’s’ toys AND going to jail, or you’ll find yourself going to jail AND mortgaging your children’s’ toys.

· The point is so simple it may have escaped your sophisticated minds. You will be asked “And what were Mr. Annan Jr’s qualifications for the job you gave him?” The answer will quickly come out: “because he had the right connections”. Next question: “why did you require a non-compete?” Your answer will be “to stop him from using his connections to drive business for a competitor” Next question will be: “did you realize what you were doing amounts to bribery, a serious offence under US law?” Now, if you answer “No, sir”, the next question will be “which do you prefer, the Federal jail at Connecticut or at Kentucky?”. If you answer, “Yes, Sir, and we’re sorry”, you may get off on jail: but the Americans are going to require you to testify against others, AND you’ll still have to put everything you own in hock.

· Our last bit of unwanted advice. Do not try and hide behind the UN’s gag order. You’ll dig yourself further into the hole. Go to the US Congressional committee and start bargaining. The fine then may be something you can afford without having to move to a homeless shelter.

· PAKISTAN Pakistan announced it is pulling its troops out of the South Waziristan area of the North West Frontier Province. We have searched high and low for Bin Laden for two years, says GOC XI Corps, and if Bin Laden was around, we’d know, because the security he requires would broadcast a large signature.

· Now, Orbat.com is not going to rag on the general. He is doing as he is told. The point here is that if at all Mr. Bin Laden is alive and moving around, he will be doing so with an escort of 3 men and 5 donkeys. That’s not a large signature. You know that, we know that, so just between us can we go wink wink nod nod?

· While we see a cover up, the people of the tribal zone definitely see a cover-up: the army is not going to withdraw, they’re lying, say the local leaders.

· Well, Gee Golly Galoshes! You are so smart! How did you figure out the Army is lying? Oh – we just figured it out: you all are such expert liars, that of course you know when the army is lying!

· What’s likely to happen is this, in our opinion. First, the Army is not going to evacuate the forward operating bases it has built over the last two years. For one thing, the army genuinely needs to close up on the frontier because the Taliban is gone, and the traditional Pakistan-Afghanistan hostility has resumed behind the masks of politeness both sides affect. For another, the US is not going to allow the Army to clear out so that insurgents and terrorists don’t reestablish themselves. For a third, the Frontier Corps presence will be greatly expanded in the area. So, folks, forget about the free and easy days of autonomy.

· You tribals broke your oath to the government: you got autonomy and in return you were not supposed to harbor enemies of the country. With your classic habit of trying to have everything, you thought you could make money from the terrorists and the Pakistan government. Islamabad called your bluff. By the way, from what we hear your troubles are just starting…

· AMERICAN MEDIA AT ITS BEST (NOT!) Whenever American media runs short of the fantasy they call news, they have a standard trick they play to fill space. So today we have the Washington Post telling us how the Americans who were in their Islamabad embassy when the Pakistani mobs decided to burn it down are still haunted by the memories. We are sure they are haunted by their memories and many will be haunted to the end of their days. But is that legitimate news? Actually, is it any kind of news?

· When your editor was a school kid, he was landing up in the school infirmary all the time because of asthma – people didn’t know the connection between allergies and asthma then, or if they did, the news hadn’t reached his corner of the world. The school had a sensible policy that if anyone was admitted, they had to be free and clear of fever or asthma or whatever for three days - the infirmary did not want to kick you out only to have you return three days later. Well, those were different days, much slower days. Your editor would run out of reading material very quickly, and then it was back to counting the ceiling tiles from right to left, from left to right, diagonally, every second tile etc.

· The school nurse was the prototypical English nurse: hands the size of Mike Tyson’s, a temper the size of Mike Tyson’s etc. and she couldn’t wait to retire and go home. But she had a heart of gold. So she would share her “True Confessions” magazines with your editor. She had so much fun shivering at the depraved things people did in America. Of course, the magazine made up your editor’s mind to go to America so he too could do those things instead of just reading about them.

· Anyhows, True Confessions was about as low class reading as you could get into, in America or elsewhere. Little did your editor realize, in his youthful innocence, that one day the True Confessions style would become mainstream reporting for the Washington Post and the media in general.

· Fellas, a little secret: True Confessions was MUCH better than the Washington Post. (Sorry, this is what happens when the editor stays up past bedtime.)

0400 November 27, 2004

Lest our readers assume the editor has been goofing off – we missed yesterday’s update – we need to explain your editor has been working night and day to finish off Orbat’s Concise Guide to World Armies 2005, which is due at the printer’s in 5 days. The computer fiasco cost 2 weeks of time, which has essentially been made up.

· UKRAINE The electoral crisis eased as Ukraine’s Supreme Court agreed to consider the disputed election. The official prime-minister elect and the challenger have agreed to open talks immediately to find a peaceful solution.

· Meantime, the EU joined the US and Canada in rejecting the results, which saw the Moscow-backed candidate win. International observers said massive fraud took place. With just 3% separating the two men, any allegation of fraud has to be taken seriously.

· Reader John Cramer asks if the report we carried on November 25 possibly mistook Ukraine soldiers in civil clothes for Russian soldiers. A good question, perhaps our readers can share their information with us. Today the police was conspicuous by its absence as demonstrators ringed Parliament, preventing the outgoing President from entering his offices. The CNN report says a few traffic police were on duty, and 30 trucks belonging to the special forces were parked nearby.

· Frankly, unless the CNN reporter is familiar with Ukraine’s military vehicle numbers, it would be wise to assume there is no evidence the vehicles belonged to the SF troops. In situations like this, relying on the demonstrators’ word is perhaps not good journalism.

· COTE D’IVORIE For the first time, we saw a reasonable explanation of what’s happening in the Ivory Coast. This was in the Washington Post, but on the op-ed page, not on the news pages. Jim Hoagland, a Post writer explains the situation thus.

· The French are ruining the ruling president’s happiness because they are standing between him and the northern rebels. One would think the man had some gratitude, because if the French hadn’t interposed themselves, the rebels may well have seized the capital. Anyhow, the president wants to resume the offensive against the rebels; France is not letting him do so.

· The President had a bright idea. Instigate a crisis, and then appeal to the United States to intervene. Why would the US intervene in the French sphere of influence? Because, the President figured, Washington was angry at the French over Iraq, and presumably would be happy to trash the French.

· This strategy is not without some logic: the younger generation of French West Africans reject Paris’ benevolent and paternalistic neo colonialism in their former territories, and many look to America as their “spiritual home” rather than to France, as was the case for their elders.

· So, the President ordered the attack on French positions. It was carried out by Byelorussian mercenaries flying for the government. As is well known, the French retaliated and wiped out the Ivorian air force. What is not so well known, and is an intriguing little story in itself, is French sources told Hoagland the French government made sure the mercenary pilots were killed.

· But we diverge. Washington instead of getting outraged at the French behavior, solidly backed Paris, as it should: no one needs another outbreak of sectarian fighting in another part of the world – the southerners are predominantly Christian and the northerners are Muslim.

· This is one of those “fact stranger than fiction” situations. A spy thriller writer would find it difficult to come up with the scenario that unfolded in real life.

· IRAQ ELECTION 17 political parties have called for postponement of the elections set for January 30, saying it was too dangerous to have a fair election. Problem is most of these parties seem to be Sunnis, the same lot which is wrecking havoc over Iraq. The Shias are not prepared to wait longer to assume power, and particularly not when the Sunnis are causing the insecurity. The US in particular is pushing for elections as scheduled, for obvious reasons. The UN is going to come in only if asked by an elected government, and the US does not want to continue being accused of wanting to take over Iraq.

· Plenty of people seem to be saying: “If you don’t delay the election, because 20% of the populace cannot vote, it will not be a legitimate election”. A wise friend of your editor replies: “Let’s hark back to the US Civil War. Something like 40% of the US was not permitted to vote .Has anyone ever said the election was not legitimate? In any case, whether the Sunnis vote or not, is there any doubt of the outcome? It is in the interest of the Sunnis to vote, so as to secure their rights. And that means the Sunni clerics must line up, and with one voice declare the insurgency illegitimate. Instead they are doing the opposite, and goading Sunnis to fight the government. They cannot have it both ways: be in rebellion against the government, and still want to vote in the election.”

· You editor asked: “but what if the Sunnis want to vote, but are being intimidated by a small percentage of dead-enders?” Our wise friend replied: “by declaring the insurgency illegitimate, and by helping the government to fight the insurgents, the Sunnis will earn the right to vote. No insurgency can exist without the support of the people. Withdraw that support in a verifiable manner, and fight for Iraq as opposed to fighting for continued Sunni oppression. If the Sunnis then say elections should be postponed, that is a very different sort of zebra.”

0530 November 25, 2004

• OPERATION PLYMOUTH ROCK The following is a composite based on the media and material forwarded by Mike Thompson from the blogs of Bill Reggio, Chester, and the Belmont Club
• Plymouth Rock started with a series of 11 simultaneous raids with forces in place. The significance is two-fold. First, the simultaneous raids reduce get away time for the insurgents. Second, as suggested by Chester’s Blog and the Washington Post, the real fighting may be yet to come: the Americans appear to be waiting for the 1^st Cavalry Division’s brigade at Fallujah to come free before the real offensive.
• Though 32 insurgents were captured on the first day (the operation is now in its 3^rd day; there is a time lag in reporting the news, we presume because of military censorship, 250 were already captured in operations in the last three weeks.
• US military forces emphasize that aside from insurgents, the area immediately south of Baghdad has become lawless, with criminal activity well entrenched.
• The US has been catching insurgents making/made their way to the area from Fallujah.
• Chester’s blog speculates that the situation in this area may have gotten out of control because it lies on the boundary of US 1^st Cavalry Division’s AOR and I MEF’s AOR. Such areas tend to get ignored, if only because each formation puts priority on its own missions. The attitude becomes “the lot on the boundary can be taken care of later”.
• Of course, if Rummy Baba wants to keep on insisting his commanders say they have sufficient forces in Iraq, then lets leave him alone with his fantasy. Telling Mr. Rumsfeld that more troops are needed is akin to running against the bulls in Pamplona. Sorry, we exaggerate: it is much safer to run against the bulls than to tell Rummy Baba “Please, Sir, may I have more?” “Baba” in Hindustani, the lingua franca of North India, means either of two things. A boy child or a wise old man. Readers can pick the meaning they prefer for Rummy.
• NAJAF ALERT Reader Joseag238 reports his local TV station in California as saying US 11^th MEU and Iraqi forces have stepped up patrols in Najaf because of reports that the insurgents may try something spectacular there.
• A FALLUJAH MOSQUE [thanks, Belmont Club] From the New York Times: “The mosque, in a residential area just north of the main east-west artery known as Highway 10, included at least a dozen brick outbuildings packed with bombs, guns, rocket-propelled grenades, and ammunition. The diversity of the weapons surprised the officers here: in the street outside, a ship mine stood in a puddle. Just inside the mosque compound was an aluminum shed full of mortars and TNT. Like many weapons depots in Falluja, it had been wired to explode, and had to be carefully dismantled by an American explosives team. Inside the compound was a document explaining how to destroy tanks using rocket-propelled grenades. General Natonski picked up a white pilot's helmet among the mortars and gazed wonderingly at it. "Did you find any Darth Vader helmets?" he asked the marine captain next to him.
• COTE D’IVORIE France is withdrawing troops from public places in the Ivory Coast, such as Abidjan International Air Port. There is speculation the 1000 reinforcements to the French contingent may soon be headed back home or back to their African stations. Now, we can look at it this way. This could mean the situation is stabilizing. It could also mean that the French are preparing to cut and run. We were warned about this possibility the day after the air attack on French troops. We can explain this second point in greater detail anyone wishes; as always, we solicit the views/information of our informed readers.
• DAFUR The Dafur rebels say they will resume military operations against Khartoum and the ceasefire negotiated earlier is abandoned. They say they have no choice because the Sudan Government’s militias continue to kill, loot and pillage. Interestingly, a rebel leader says the original plan of the Dafuris if now abandoned. That called for an independent state. Now, says the leader, the people have no choice but to advance on Khartoum and topple the government.
• Two ways to look at this. Esteemed leader has been overdosing on the Good Stuff, and is in la-la land. OR some stakeholder/s in the Dafur crisis are arming the rebels and telling them to go for broke.
• UKRAINE Things are not looking good. The opposition candidate in the Presidential vote just held lost by 2.7 points to the Moscow backed ruling party strongman. The Europeans and the Americans who observed the elections uniformly declare the election was fraudulent. In fact, Secretary of State Colin Powell has issued yet another denunciation.
• Meanwhile, it is being said that Russian soldiers in civilian clothes are gathering around Parliament, towards which – it is said – 1 million opposition supporters are marching with a demand for the declared winner to concede.

0530 November 24, 2004

· OPERATION PLYMOUTH ROCK US/UK/Iraq forces (5000 troops) have begun an operation south of Baghdad and have trapped several hundred insurgents. This area was the second most dangerous part of the country after Fallujah.

· US officer says insurgents here are skillful fighters.

· Reports say that US has captured the senior insurgent leader in An Anbar province. Kurd sources claim Zarqawi was in Fallujah when offensive began, and got out, but not before being wounded. He is now thought by US/other sources to be in the area where the above operation is taking place.

· US says the 3 Iraqi battalions fought well at Fallujah, but still have a long way to go before they can fight without US advisors. The US has apparently finally learned the basics of empire insurgency, the divide and rule principle. The troops at Fallujah and in the new offensive are mainly Kurds who are seeking revenge against the Sunnis. The troops that helped the US retake Mosul were also Kurds. The insurgents have thoughtfully been helping the US by executing captured Iraqi soldiers at every opportunity. Arab and US media have nothing to say on this issue, the US media at least reports the facts.

· Mike Thompson says to look at A Marine Near Fallujah for some reality from the field. A number of interesting disclosures about US anti-mortar tactics, including keeping an AC-130 above the battlefield at night. He tells the story of an insurgent commander who got on his cell phone to tell someone he had just escaped an American strike but his pals got hit in the house. He was on his way to a new house. So the Americans obligingly located the position of the new house and laid down a hot welcome. We hope this leader will spend an eternity in his heaven writing on the chalk board: “I will not use a cell phone in the middle of a battle”, again and again.

· The AC-130 apparently fires its weapons in 4-second bursts. This particular Marine says the insurgents are the worst cowards he knows about. Your editor must note that after reading what the AC-130 does to its targets, he is in full sympathy with the insurgents’ cowardice. Since going up directly against US troops is a free on-way ticket to paradise, the only way the insurgents have a chance of survival is to be cowards

· The Marine adds “The battalion adjacent to us had a hit on a school bus in the AO the other day, targeting elementary school kids of junior new Iraqi govt officials. Their Ops Officer told me the Marines were having to pick up kids
arms and legs from off the tops of buildings. Bet you're not seeing this on CNN? “ For those who ask “how do we know US media was in the area?”, well, reporters are embedded with all units. And its not particularly difficult to fetch the nearest reporter to witness the aftermath of the atrocity – if the reporter agrees to come.

· NEWS OF THE ABSURD Reuters files a story saying US troops in Iraq are engaged in a frustrating cat-and-mouse game with the insurgents: the insurgents seem to get away each time they are encircled. Oh, so that’s what Fallujah was about, the insurgent mice escaping the American cat? Hmmm. Now, we don’t know how many insurgents were in Fallujah, and certainly many got away before the cordon was emplaced. Some even got away after the cordon was emplaced – oh how horribly inefficient we Americans are! Whatever the figure, 1600 insurgents were deemed killed by body count, hundreds more were arrested. Seems to us the American cat had a serious chow-fest and is having seconds in the new offensive.

· How many times does this have to be said before the media gets it? The Iraq insurgents are split into scores of groups. After being flushed out of one base, their running to another base is fraught with great risk. There is a lot of infighting between groups. Infighting gets worse when people are getting killed and no one is sure who is on who’s side. You cannot land up at another base, and announce: “I am fleeing Fallujah and have come to join you in your next fight against the Americans.” The people who you have run to may turn out not to be your past buddies. Moreover, insurgents are at their most vulnerable during the flight and setting up in their new base – they have to communicate all over the place, using insecure means. When rats come into the open, it does not demonstrate some failure of the cat. The whole idea is to get the rats in the open. Media, please read your own reports of fleeing insurgents being handily picked up in other cities.

· If Reuters had thought to check before writing such asinine stories, we are willing to bet money that the response of the Marines and Army soldiers would be: “so many mice, so little time”.

· Suggested punishment for the Reuters person in question: s/he is required to dress himself or herself up in a mouse costume in a rebel held area the Americans are attacking. Then lets see who will get frustrated.

0400 GMT November 23, 2004

·

· ITALIAN RESCUE IN COTE IVORE A reader emails “I would inform you and your readers that Italy has completed a successful NEO in Ivory Coast, deploying its Special Forces and transport planes in Accra and Abidjan and rescuing several hundreds Italian and other foreigners. The Operation "Ippocampo" ended last 19 November.” [Name withheld by request].

· CNN & IRAQ We suppose it is some kind of victory for the US in Iraq that CNN has seen fit to ignore any Iraq news on its web “frontpage” www.cnn.com

· IRAN BUYS MORE TIME Iran says it is suspending work on its uranium. It thus [1] buys more time before it is sanctioned; [2] gives its main supporters, the Euro 3, a victory; [3] angers the US which sees this move as another evasive maneuver to take the international heat off its weapons program. We have no comment: if the Euro 3 want to believe they have achieved something, then who are we to do a Cassandra. The closer Iran gets to a bomb, the harder the west will have to work to stop the bomb.

· IRAN’s 1^st BOMB: 2011 Here is your editor out on a limb. Iran will get its first bomb in 2011. Its 40 MW plutonium production reactor should be on-line by 2010. Your editor has been saying for years Pakistan’s uranium enrichment program was not to make a bomb, but to slightly enrich uranium for use in a plutonium producing reactor. Iran is doing the same. With regard to Pakistan, your editor was wrong on one point: in 1985 he said Pakistan should have its first bomb by 2000. That has changed to 2005. But, our readers will say, what about Pakistan’s several nuclear explosions some years ago? In response your editor will be witty: well, what about those explosions? Some, at least, may have been conducted with insufficient plutonium or with reactor grade plutonium.

· The real experts on this issue are a bunch of young Indian scientists. Unfortunately, due to time constraints your editor has never tracked down the several mysteries concerning the Pakistan “tests”.

· Of course, the Pakistan bomb is a moot point after September 11, 2001. The US has Pakistan’s weapons infrastructure locked down, and if there was the least indication Pakistan had started up something else, the US would destroy it without debate. The last thing anyone wants is a repeat of the lovely stunt Dr. AQ Khan, till his downfall the head of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program, pulled before September 11. He sent one of his officers to tell Mr. Bin Laden that Mr. Bin Laden could have a bomb if the price was right.

· Now, between us, our readers, and the trees in the forest, Dr. Khan was simply pulling another one of his famous hoaxes that have made him much money. He had no bomb to deliver to Mr. Bin Laden. At most he might have had some reactor grade plutonium, which could have created problems enough if used as a weapon deployed by scattering the plutonium in mid-town Manhattan. By the way, this is not as easy to do as the media would have us believe.

· If the US had not stepped in, by next year Dr. K would have had something that looked like a bomb to hand over to Mr. BL. Again, getting this to New York would be – to put it mildly – very difficult. But assume it could be done; you wouldn’t need a proper full blast. Anything between 0.1 and 1 KT would produce a satisfactory blast and depending on the winds, scatter radioactive plutonium over hundreds, if not thousands, of square miles.

· AMERICANS AND THE WORLD One of the many things your editor likes about the Amerians is that as a people, their natural inclination is to trust others and to take them at their word. It is simply impossible, for a great many Americans, perhaps even the majority, to imagine that people they have not harmed in any way want so badly to kill Americans. A 10-day visit to Pakistan should be mandatory for all American adults. They would then learn first hand what the reality is. Wait a minute, you will say, why Pakistan? Surely any mid-east Islamic nation would be better. Well, here’s one of those odd things that is hard to explain in words. Pakistan has been far from the front lines of Islam versus Christianity, and is one of the few Islamic states that from the start has been treated decently by the Americans. At most, American has been indifferent, in some years, to Pakistan. But before 9-11, America never sought to harm Pakistan. Yet, paradoxically, the Pakistanis hate the Americans more than do the residents of any Islamic country.

0500 GMT November 22/0500 GMT November 21, 2004

· IRAQ To speak of the weekend of 21^st/22^nd November as a slow news event is to insult the word slow. Years ago, when New York’s Lexington Avenue subway line was under construction, an irate resident wrote to the newspapers complaining about the “snail’s pace” at which work was proceeding. Another reader replied: Please don’t insult snails. In one year a snail can cover XYZ yards, where as the subway has covered less.”

· The BBC is using the most banal stories for fillers. CNN has taken Iraq off the headlines except to say the elections will be as scheduled on January 30. AFP talks about the Russians joining the western move to forgive Iraq 80% of its debt

· The Washington Post says the US Army is looking to put 3-5,000 more troops on the ground in Iraq as it believes after Fallujah the insurgents are on the run. This is all very jolly, but when an Army with global commitments has to resort to tricks to find an extra brigade, then Houston, the leader of the Free World has a big problem. And it is not as if America has a small population: the total is approaching 300-million

· More interestingly, the Post quotes an army officer as saying no big operations are in prospect because no other area presents the same level of problems Fallujah did.

· Meanwhile, the US count of insurgent dead has climbed to 1600; 1000 men were detained, but about half should have been freed by today.

· One reason the US military has gone quiet on Fallujah is that apparently the Americans have hit upon a mother lode of intelligence documents and are spending their time and energy on analyzing the trove.

· CHINA-JAPAN SUMARINE INCIDENT Back in the Far East, the PLAN has been very naughty. It sent a Han class SSN into Japanese territorial waters. Instead of turning the other cheek, the Japanese went after the boat, chasing it for 3 days. Clearly they were more interested in observing the Han’s reactions to Japanese tactics than in catching the submarine. Still, the Japanese are angry. Beijing is dealing with the uproar in an unusual manner, which suggests they are quite embarrassed: submarine incident in Japanese waters? Didn’t happen. Unwanted advice to PLAN: if you think you can run a Han any place outside its berth in port without the boat being detected, you’ve got a long way to go in submarine design

· IRAN-CHINA ENERGY DEAL Readers Mike Thompson and Joseph Stefula have sent us news clippings about Iran’s massive energy deal with China. The potential value of the deal could be in the 12 figures, i.e., $100-billion, though the agreements are for something less. Cherche la femme, or something like that applies very much to energy: follow the energy and you’ll get the news before its even made.

· This is a seismic shift that’s taking place in global power equations. For the US that’s not good. China is not going to impose embargoes and blockades on Iran since the latter is about to become the largest exporter of energy to China; moreover, China is, every year, more able to help Iran in case the US manages to isolate Teheran.

· CHINA AND THE US ECONOMY The amusing thing about China’s rapid rise toward economic superpower status is that its been fuelled by the US. The US runs a mind-boggling trade deficit with China, because the latter produces stuff that is critical to America’s security. An example is the horribly tacky plastic toy that comes as a promotion with American fast food promotions. Another is plastic flowers: heaven forbid America should lose its supply of plastic flowers.

· The Americans looked at China and began salivating over the prospect of 1 billion new consumers to buy Coke, Levi jeans, Rayban aviator sunglasses and other such vital strategic commodities. If we don’t supply to China, someone else will, was the reasoning. Well, here’s what has happened: all these goodies are indeed being supplied to the Chinese consumerate, but by Chinese businessmen. This enterprising lot made collaboration deals with the west, stole the technology, adapted it for the local market, and then politely showed the west the soles of their shoes – after the businessmen had walked several times through a pile of doggy doo.

· Meanwhile, at the rate things are going with the US trade deficit, which is financed by foreigners, pretty soon Beijing will ask nicely for Taiwan and the Americans will scramble to deliver the goods themselves – cant inconvenience Beijing when it owns hundreds of billions – perhaps soon even a trillion- worth of US bonds.

· We shouldn’t ipso facto assume the Chinese are going to end up controlling the US economy. First the oil sheikhs tried to do this through OPEC. So the sheikhs got hundreds of billions of US dollars in exchange for their oil. But what could they do with the money? No economy was big enough to take that money except for – the US. Then the Japanese tried. Say what you will about the Japanese, but “morons” is not a word that comes to mind when you say “Tokyo”. They are exceedingly clever businesspeople. So the Americans sold the Japanese a bunch of companies and properties at hugely inflated prices, the Japanese couldn’t handle these acquisitions, and so they had to sell them back to the United States at a huge loss.

· Still: your editor doesn’t like to go to bed worrying about the Chinese attempt to dominate the dollar by buying more and more, till its Beijing that sets US economic policy, not the US Federal Reserve. The Americans always have a plan. But your editor at least does not see any hint of an American plan to stop the Chinese, whereas the Chinese plan to stop America is all too apparent.

· A READER’S COMMENT TO THE EDITOR`Reader Spence sends a brief comment on Kofi Annan. The UN supremo may not be involved in the dealing and wheelings, says the comment; but if we’re talking integrity, doesn’t a man’s integrity tarnish when he wrongly shields his juniors? Hmmm. Reader Spence has a good point.

·

1700 GMT November 20, 2004

· UNITED NATIONS, NEW YORK [Thanks to Mike Thompson] AFP reports on what appears to be a snowballing crisis at UN HQ. The employees union is to hold an unprecedented vote of no confidence in the Secretary General. The appalling – and expanding – oil-for-food scandal is part of the employee unrest, but more local issues seem to be the primary motivating force.

· The problems came to a head when Mr. Annan exonerated the UN chief oversight officer, who was accused of sexually harassing UN employees and other issues. The employees union says it was not called to testify, even though the union is the one that brought the matter to Mr. Annan’s attention. The union alleges the exoneration is part of a pattern where Mr. Annan has ignored/condoned inappropriate behavior/misuse of power on the part of his close advisors.

· Orbat.com has no idea where this matter is heading, but apparently it is very serious and comes at a particularly bad time thanks to the oil-for-food scandal: a senior UN official seems to be at the center of the affair, the UN is refusing to hand over documents to various governments that have requested them (US and Russia among others), and there are charges the UN is not cooperating fully with its own outside investigator, a former US Federal Reserve chairman. This apart, Mr. Annan’s own son appears to be part of the scandal.

· MR. ANNAN We do our best to avoid involvement in these matters. Nonetheless, the UN has never been more important to the world’s peace and stability than right now. Readers should know that Mr. Annan’s son is from his first wife, who left the marriage, taking the children with her. There is no implication whatsoever that Mr. Annan has the slightest involvement in the oil-for-food scandal. As the leader of a powerful tribe, he is rich in his own right. The issue here is not his personal integrity, but what is seen as his insistence on shielding UN officials accused of corruption and other misdeeds. Mr. Annan has to take responsibility for what his officials, and even his son, do even though Mr. Annan is free of any wrongdoing. It appears to us at Orbat.com that Mr. Annan should remove himself from any contact with any tainted official, and perhaps even tender his resignation. The matter is much bigger than his personal concerns.

· UN MISSIONS TO IRAQ AND DAFUR Orbat.com learns to its dismay that UN employees have asked Mr. Annan to pull out the missions to Iraq and Dafur because the security of the personnel is in jeopardy. We appreciate that civilians did not sign up to work at the UN facing the risk of death, capture, or serious injury. At the same time, if the UN pushes off when there is danger, what message does it send to the billions of people who look to it for hope and even salvation? In particular, what about Dafur?

· RAMADI Today we learned something we did not know before: Ramadi is much bigger than Fallujah, with a population of 450,000. The US has two battalions at Ramadi at this time. Though there is no discussion in the media due to a news blackout for security reasons, the US is preparing to move on Ramadi.

· MOSUL Matters are still not entirely under control in Mosul, though 3 of the 5 bridges into the city have been reopened.

· BAGHDAD The Iraq government continues to raid Sunni mosques and arrest clerics. A move long overdue in our opinion. Some HR groups have the temerity to say these arrests are anti-democratic. Right, mate, visualize this: Western Europe is wracked by insurgencies. On the one side is an EU government that has many faults, but nonetheless is struggling to bring democracy to the region. On the other side is an assortment of thugs, criminals, and holdovers from a brutal dictatorship, creating havoc under the name of religion. Some of this unpleasant lot even says that democracy is a system of the infidels. So, while EU troops and police and citizens are being killed at the rate of 20-100 a day, Indian HR groups attack the EU for defiling democracy. May we know what the EU response is going to be?

· Personally, your editor sees the problem in simple terms. Obviously Iraq/US has failed to change the nappies of certain people and groups working under the guise of HR, which itself is among the noblest of causes. Iraq/US have failed to provide this lot their formula feeding bottles. The mistake we are all making is to think we are dealing with adults. We’re dealing with babies, and babies that are – um- developmentally challenged, at that.

· NATIONAL PUBLIC RADIO NPR, in the United States, an assortment of radio and news stations those are independent and beholden to no corporate influence. They raise their money from the public and government grants, which are given in non-partisan manner. NPR fulfills a key role in making up, admittedly partially, for the great information vacuum that exists in the US.

· We ourselves give higher credence to NPR reports than to those of the mainstream media. So your editor is not pleased to get an email from reader Andrew Ring [see also Letters to the Editor], which talks about an NPR correspondent talking with a senior Islamic relief official in Fallujah. The official says he has talked to many refugees and they uniformly say there were NO civilians left behind in Fallujah. NPR, from the manner of its commentary, is unbelieving and incredulous. The truth does not suit NPR. Welcome, NPR, to the cesspool of what constitute US media reporting. At least you have plenty of company.

2300 GMT November 18, 2004

• IRAQ SUMMARY Fighting in Fallujah dies down further every day, though no one is claiming the city is secured. A US senior general has issued a more optimistic statement than ones the US was giving before; saying the back of the insurgency has been broken.
• Personally we agree. Forget the media, which is incapable of understanding anything. We aim this at ordinary people who might think that the Fallujah victory is meaningless because many insurgents escaped before hand and because of the upsurge of violence elsewhere. For one thing, the upsurge was predicted and so far has amounted to nothing: the US had little trouble retaking lost positions in Mosul, for example. For another, which is really the most important issue, the insurgents have lost their base. Fallujah was unlike any other insurgent stronghold because the insurgents ruled an entire city they used to store weapons, train, rest, and so on. No other city in Iraq provides that function. Third, insurgents who arrive at another place after losing their base are exceedingly vulnerable. The Fallujah insurgents more so because the people of Iraq have had it with the insurgents.
• Some of that vulnerability can be seen by the weak effort put in at Mosul. If America had had more troops on the ground, the insurgents would have had no success at all, and they were thrown out quickly. In Baghdad, the police have arrested 100 insurgents, including 7 who arrived from Fallujah. To use it seems someone ratted on them rather than risk their locality becoming another Fallujah.
• Other bits and pieces also point to the insurgent defeat. The Iraq government has gone on a mullah-arresting spree: at this point people seem to have lost track of how many Sunni mullahs have been arrested, and the government is making clear any mullah who supports the insurgents in word or deed is for the pokey. There has been absolutely no reaction to these arrests: one media source talked of a demonstrated in Baghdad; we stopped reading when we learned 70 people were demonstrating.
• Recall what happened when the US moved to arrest an Al-Sadr mullah: several weeks of fighting. This time nothing. Mr. Al-Sadr has not uttered a word about Fallujah, of course, he might be pleased because he is a Shia.
• The US has killed several insurgents who swam the Euphrates to get back into Fallujah. Jordan has arrested a nephew of Zarqawi. And the magnitude of the US slaughter of insurgents becomes more apparent each day. Now we hear of one incident where 40 insurgents ran to take shelter in a house, the US wiped out the house and them. Zarqawi’s HQ has been found. Nine dead insurgents occupied the place, which had been abandoned in a rush.
• NONETHELESS the war will go on. It can wind down only when Iraqi forces take responsibility for their country. The Iraqis have performed modestly well in Fallujah; clearly they have a long way to go. More than 3 years after the Taliban regime fell, the US has less than 12 effective Afghan National Army battalions on the ground – our point is not to talk of some US failure, but to say that building armies takes time, and than goodness the media has stayed out of Afghanistan allowing the US the needed time.
• MEANTIME The US KIA at Fallujah has reached 51. Orbat.com is not pleased. In Vietnam, that was the toll for a serious engagement. But things are different now. The US has to prepare itself for a 100-year war, and its not a good idea to loose more soldiers than you absolutely have too. True, the Fallujah situation is unique in that probably the US has never fought for an urban zone that was more booby-trapped. And the US apparently did not overly stint on the use of firepower. Nonetheless, we’d like to know why so many men died.
• SADDAM’S STASH New figures from US Congressional investigators indicate that Saddam stole $21 billion from his people after Gulf I, not the $10+ billion that was bandied about till now. Now, we know Saddam had a lot of people to pay, and many palaces to build for himself. The UN’s complicity in this, however, is not good for anyone who believes in the US – your editor does. Kofi Annan’s son is involved. Mr. Annan, instead of cooperating, is stonewalling, as is every other person implicated.
• This is not a good idea, people. Sure, if a Congressional committee called your editor to testify, your editor would want to make rude gestures and sounds. But he wouldn’t do it because the power of these committees is mind boggling. They can break anyone they want, and anyone who tries to act feisty is broken. These committees are staffed with lawyers sufficient to make a chain to the moon and back, and they are like termites: they work quietly, unseen, and the first you know about them is when your house falls down. The UN lot may be feeling pretty chuffed it has blown off the Congressional investigation. It will not be as pleased when its house comes down, without warning.
• A straw in the wind: the French bank that is at the center of the Oil-for-Food scandal has now come under investigation under US money laundering laws. What does a French bank have to fear from the US? Everything. If it doesn’t not cooperate – and it is cooperating, it will find warrants for the arrest of its senior people posted all over the world. It will find its assets around the world seized or frozen by the US or by countries the US pressures. It has so much to lose that it’s far, far better to cooperate, take the massive fines the US authorities will level and – most important of all, hand over all documents asked for, without hesitation and without tampering. That’s when a bunch of people are going to go down, including from the US.
• IRAN In his weekly update on Iran, Nicholas Krazin dismisses all the recent baloney about Iran cooperating with the EU and being willing to suspend uranium enrichment etc. First, Iran is just buying time. Second, its using the Euro-3 as a shield against the US. The problem here is that if the US gets mad, the Euro-3 cannot protect Iran. France and Germany have no credibility in Washington at this time. As for the UK, its not about to sacrifice its US relationship just so a bunch of mad mullahs can acquire a few bombs – the UK being a prime target of said bombs. Three, no one in Iran is going to make a uranium bomb. It’s going to be a plutonium bomb: frankly, we have not followed Iran’s weapons program and do not know where/if/what/how etc is happening with its plutonium program. So we hope better informed people will educate us.
• US ABM Press sources say the US is to install 40 missile interceptors, mostly in Alaska, but also in California, presumably as a back-stop against missiles that leak through the Alaska shield. Now, this is a rather more serious business than installing 6 interceptors as we’ve been talking of: with 40 interceptors, an attack with 1-6 missiles can be defeated. The thing that truly bugs your editor is that he still doesn’t know that are there to be 40 silos with reloads, or 40 missiles in toto.

1430 GMT November 17, 2004

• IRAQ We deferred this update by 12 hours hoping some news from Iraq would emerge. Instead, the media as always chooses to focus on the sensational: the confirmed heinous murder of a western woman who devoted her life to relief/uplift of the Iraqi people, and the apparent killing of an unarmed wounded insurgent in Fallujah.
• The murder of the relief worker does indeed need space in the media. We anticipated she would be ransomed, but we were wrong. Meanwhile, since the military discovered the body of a blonde foreign woman in Fallujah, we must assume that a second female in insurgent captivity has also been murdered – the relief worker was not blonde haired. We need not editorialize on these two killings: if some in the West have not understood what they are up against, we must simply shrug our shoulders and abjure responsibility. This is the way of evolution: the strong survive, the weak do not. If westerners would rather focus on the apparent killing of a wounded insurgent by a Marine, and would rather flagellate themselves for their own worthlessness, then Orbat.com’s would say it is their business. There is no excuse for what the Marine did: even an apparently wounded and unarmed man can pose a threat, but apparently the Marine entered the room where the killing took place after other Marines were already present, and apparently they saw no threat. He will be punished in accordance with military law by his own people. But will the insurgents’ own people punish them for the murders of two women?
• A VIGNETTE IN THE WAR IS HECK DISCUSSION The brilliant book “Is Paris Burning” recounts an incident that happened in Paris as the Americans moved into the city, in 1944. This incident too was recorded by the media, at any rate by someone with a camera. An American unit was accepting the surrender of about 60 German soldiers when – if we recall the book right – a German threw or exploded a grenade. The American unit then machinegunned the Germans. The Germans were unarmed and lined up; the incident is an unpleasant one, but normal people shrug it off as another proof that war is not a refereed game. At most we might think that the Americans overreacted, but nowhere will you find any condemnation: it is understood once one German broke the terms of surrender, the lives of all were forfeit.
• Your editor happens to be a hardliner in these matters. He believes the insurgents violated the laws of war by fighting from a mosque, and their lives were forfeit to begin with, even as he is sad the an American soldier would do something wrong by American law. War creates stress; stress makes people crazy: your editor has to leave the matter at that, because it is an aberration.
• Now for the part where your editor says what he really thinks, stripped of the need to be politically correct. This is solely his opinion and has nothing to do with Orabt.com. The Marines fought for the mosque, and 5 insurgents were wounded. The Marines needed to move on, they left the wounded behind for later. We do not know the circumstances of their departure: presumably the Marines took over the insurgents’ weapons, but did they check the men to see if the men were seriously wounded, had no concealed weapons, and were incapable of movement? Did they handcuff the men? Your editor is very, very surprised the Marines simply moved on. You either leave someone behind – a near impossible option if your unit is just a squad that is already shorthanded, or you kill the wounded. On a human level, your editor completely sympathizes with the decision: he too would have no heart to kill wounded men.
• On a real world level, your editor explains this is why he never went to the service after 2 failed attempts to volunteer. By the time he got it together for a 3^rd try, it was apparent to him that he did not have what it took to fight in a war like Vietnam. Had he been drafted, of course he would have gone – the responsibility would not have been his. Given he always gives the other party the benefit of the doubt, no matter how grave the danger – he has many times in his younger days escaped being killed or at least seriously hurt because of this hesitation – the outcome would not have been a good one for him. In this he was/is no different from millions of other people who would rather have an injustice done him than do an injustice to another.
• That’s where the law of survival comes in. His chances of surviving in a conflict are much less than that of his friend, who was of the shoot first, argue later school. Needless to say, your editor stuck very close behind to this friend in the event of trouble.
• But here’s the point: the Marines volunteered, however much pity they felt, by not shooting the wounded or leaving someone behind to watch the wounded, they put their brothers-in-arms in serious danger. This story could have easily turned into one where Americans were killed rather than an insurgent.
• INDIAN WITHDRAWAL FROM KASHMIR India has begun withdrawal of 40,000 army troops from Kashmir, ostensibly as an incentive to Pakistan to talk. . You do not see your editor jumping up and down for joy. His views on Kashmir are well known. There is nothing to talk about except the terms on which Pakistan will return to the Indian Union. Then he saw the areas from which the troops are being withdrawn, and while he reserved judgment till his slothful Indian teams weighs in, your editor is not alarmed.
• In that particular area there is an army division that normally has 6-8 brigades for CI duty. The Army has over the years been steadily reducing its commitment to CI ops, something it has never seen as its charter. Oddly, even the paramilitary Border Security Force started pressing the government some years ago with the simple argument: “Please read our shoulder insignia: it says B for Border, S for Security, F for Force? It does not say internal security troops. Yes, there was an emergency when the Kashmir insurgency erupted, so we had to do the CI job. But it is now a decade and more since we were assigned for temporary duty.” The BSF joined the Army is saying their job was to kill India’s external enemies, not police the interior.
• The Government accepted the argument and has been taking steady steps to replace the Army troops that since 1999 have been redeploying back to peace stations or the border, and the BSF battalions that have been steadily withdrawing back to the border since 2003. Fencing the border to reduce infiltration was a big step, and it is working, raising another 3 divisions worth of specially trained CI troops was another.
• So, this is what’s happening: the need for manpower in Kashmir has been reduced while at the same time true CI forces have been increased. Voila, the division in question, 28^th Infantry Div, can send home its extra brigades on TDY from other divisions, and withdraw its own brigades back to its peace/war stations. We believe a CI division from the new raisings will take over. This move has been in the offing for at least two years.
• So actually India has conceded nothing, but if you believe in a negotiated solution to Kashmir, it’s an important symbolic gesture.
• Your editor has many, many very close American friends who, without exception, want to discuss a negotiated Kashmir solution that effectively involves giving up Kashmir as an integral part of America. After the US 2004 election, your editor feels he can finally discuss giving up Indian rights over Kashmir. If the dialog is conducted in parallel with one where we discuss the issue of America’s red and blue states giving up their claims on each other and separating peacefully. Your editor’s friends love to remind him: Hindus and Muslims need their own countries. Right you are mates. American religious believers and secularities need their own countries too. Let the Debate Begin!

1315 GMT November 16, 2004

• MOSUL 1200 troops from TF Olympia and 2000 Iraq forces (our estimate) have retaken all 9 police stations from insurgents. All 5 bridges are closed as US/Iraq plans to clear the western part of the city from entrenched insurgents. In Orbat.com’s opinion, the Mosul situation was more dangerous than the US let on. Babuqa is quiet.
• FALLUJAH US says 1052 prisoners taken, of whom fewer than 20 are foreigners. So: did the foreigners flee, letting the Iraq insurgents to fight the US alone, or are there hundreds of dead foreigners? No real news from Fallujah.
• COTE D’IVORIE Iraq events forced us to neglect the Ivory Coast, where the situation for the French has become very bad. It appears to us that unless France sends even more troops and perhaps even abandons its position of neutrality, we could see the French cut and run. The implications for former French Africa would be enormously negative. Whatever one thinks of French “neo-colonialism”, to use a term our radical friends throw about, France has been the key factor underpinning stability in its former West African colonies. Any weakening of French resolve, or loss of face, would weaken that stability, and we do not have to look far to see many examples of the potential horrors.
• So far about 4500 foreigners have been evacuated or have left the Ivory Coast. Of course, that leaves 10,000+ who decided to stay on for now, but the situation does not look promising.
• The government faction is clearly preparing for more confrontation. Power supplies to the North, for example, have been cut off and a hardline general in part responsible for the civil war has been appointed to head the armed forces. Government supporters have been rabble rousing, saying the French are not neutral in the ethnic dispute. The situation becomes more explosive by the day.
• Meanwhile, reader Mike Thompson sends a report, the media origin of which we missed, saying a Hezbollah representative has been in the Ivory. Ostensibly he came to act as observers to see the interests of Ivorian Muslims are safeguarded. In reality he came to find out what happened to $2-million Muslims had collected for charity, and we need not remind readers that while Hezbollah does run genuine charities, it is a terrorist organization. One theory is that the Government, fast running out of money, has appropriated the money to pay its supporters. The troubling issue here is: we forget a substantial portion of West Africans are Muslims; several fractures along religious/ethnic fault lines are taking place, and the last thing anyone needs is for Hezbollah/Iran to stir up more trouble.
• Not surprisingly, Washington has been of no help to Paris, saying that it is already overextended. If the US wouldn’t go into Dafur, it certainly is not going into the Ivory Coast, and to help the French at that. More surprisingly, however, the EU is telling Paris is cannot help with troops. The scandal of the EU armies and their absolute inability to field more than a few thousand troops is well known, but the scandal grows bigger each day.
• Also meanwhile, the UN has unanimously passed an arms embargo on Ivory Coast. The government has placed orders for 2 Sukhoi fighters and 2 attack helicopters, there are any number on the market; how these are to be paid for is another matter. In total the Ivory Coast Air Force had available two fighters and five helicopters; two helicopters may have survived the French retaliation after its troops were bombed. It was this unprovoked attack, costing the lives of 9 French troops and 1 American civilian, which started the present hostilities. Yet to be answered is why that attack was made. Opinions welcome.

1700 GMT November 15: MOSUL [CNN] US/Kurd troops retake 2 bridges across the Tigris BAQUBA Fighting continues, US captures 20 insurgents as they roll into town FALLUJAH Clean-up continues, sometimes with heavy bombing to destroy newly found underground positions in SE industrial zone, in one case big enough to “drive a truck” into; 20 airstrikes flown; US KIA 38 RAMADI-ABU GHARIB & AL QAIM (Syria frontier) US gives no news; we presume Ramadi buildup continues.

0500 GMT November 15, 2004

· RAMADI [Chester's Blog] Ramadi has been cordoned off preparatory to US attack. Skirmishing has been taking place all past week.

· FALLUJAH Fighting has subsided, US says cleanup will take several days; all part of the city are under US control. US KIA is 32, accidental deaths related to the operation are 3; wounded are 250, of which a quarter have returned to their units. Insurgents KIA now estimated between 1-2,000, with a figure of 1,200 being commonly given in the media; we suggest readers wait till an actual count is available. 1000 in custody, US says expects to release 700 soon. The rest are presumably preparing to sing. In last stage of fighting US encountered insurgents in uniforms; they will have to be given protection under Geneva; nonetheless, we hope the US will stop being holier-than-thou and not give protection to anyone not in uniform.

· MOSUL Offensive to retake insurgent held areas is underway; 2 police stations recaptured; 2 US, 4 Iraq National Guard battalions appear to be on the scene at this time.

· ARAFAT BABA AND THE LONELY THIEF [Figures from the Drudge Report, thanks go to Mike Thompson. Commentary is ours.] ALI BABA had his 40 thieves to keep him company; Arafat had only his ownsome lonesome. Ah, the heavy burdens of the revolutionary rich.

· Drudge clears up what was, to Orbat.com at least, a great mystery. Knowing how corrupt Arafat was, why did the Europeans and other aid donors keep giving him money? Apparently, they didn’t: two years ago he was forced to disgorge $800-million found by auditors working for international donors. We do recall hearing something about this, but we generally pay little heed to non-military stories. Arafat was, of course, out of the money loop after that.

· Drudge mentions an estimate made by an investigative journalist that in the 1990s Arafat had $3-billion he had stolen. With $800-million returned, and given that he had to use his ill-gotten gains to pay his lot and play his political games, we’d guess perhaps there is $1-billion not accounted for. Drudge agrees, with the colorful words that Arafat was down to his last billion. Poor baby. What hardship!

· The story we’d been told concerning Suha Arafat’s outburst that the Palestine leaders wanted to bury Arafat alive – she was refusing to turn off the life support – is backed up with Drudge. Not that we needed any confirmation, since ours was an excellent source. The true story was that she was fighting for a greater share of Arafat’s money than she was being offered. She apparently went ballistic when she learned Arafat had been forced to return $800-million, Drudge says. We think the famous journo may be off the point here. How could the Palestine leaders stopped Arafat from handing over the money? He didn’t do it of his free will, he was forced to make restitution, and this was in the media at the time. We do think Suha knows how to read.

· The French are investigating the source of $15 million sent to Suha in Paris. Also, Arafat was sending her $2.4 million a year for her maintenance in Paris. And surely she wheedled more money out of him. Suha wants to be paid by the Palestine government. For what, we may ask? For not stealing more money from her people? The Palestine government says no dice, but they’ll give her a pension – sums not disclosed.

RACISM

· Non-whites – and your editor is one – love telling us how racist whites are. This includes people from India, your editor’s country, who have had the privilege to immigrate to the US, and the opportunities to do far, far better than they ever could have back home. Your editor’s response to those of his friends who cry racism has consistently been: “Go back where you came from, Jojo. Would whites ever be given the chances you’ve had if they’d gone to India? Not a chance.

· Your editor is now about to astonish his friends who he happily insults. [Umm, so your editor lied, everyone knows he has No friends.] Yes, you all are absolutely right. Whites are racists.

· As proof I offer Mr. Yasser Arafat, who along with every dictator in the world was most welcome in India from 1950 onward. Of course, the Indians have some standards, for gosh’s sake: no white dictators allowed unless they were Russian.

· The whites who put up with Arafat – mainly the Europeans who are ever-so-much-more-sophisticated than the village folk Americans – were being outright racist because had a white done a hundredth of the stealing Arafat did, the white would have been sitting in a cold cell right quick.

· So, we’re very quick to issue international warrants for white authoritarians from South America, but did any European magistrate issue a warrant requiring Arafat’s presence in Paris, or Madrid, or the Hague, or Brussels to “assist with enquiries?” Not a chance. We know what would have happened to such a magistrate. This man was a thief, a terrorist, and an accessory to endless murders, mainly of his own people.

· But you see, he was killing his own people. He was stealing his people’s money. If Palestine babies were not getting proper nutrition because Arafat was stealing money meant for the babies, well, it’s none of our business, dear. This is what Arabs do, unpleasant, but we really cannot make a fuss.

· To refuse to judge a non-white by the standards you expect of yourself as a white, that is racism. And for any white to say “Democracy is too complicated for the Arab world and we shouldn’t be pushing it down their throats” is outrageous racism. A person does not have to speak English or even know how to write his name to appreciate democracy. Ask any Indian. Ask any Afghani.

· Oddly, in America those who say everyone is entitled to democracy and the US must do what it can, even if it means using force, are called – conservatives, reactionaries, etc. The people who say its okay for Arafat to steal, and democracy is not something Arabs can handle, and we shouldn’t interfere in their lives even to overthrow the dictators that are brutally oppressing them, are called – liberals, progressives, etc.

· Okay, so Arafat is dead. Suha is alive. Ask for an Interpol Red Card and get her sent back where she belongs – Palestine – and let her face the people who she steals from to live overseas. Try her and hang her. Excuse moi, what is that you say? Palestine leaders cannot confront Suha because she knows where the bodies are buried?

· Simple solution, so childishly simple your editor wonders why he didn’t think of it before. Extract her confession, learn where the bodies have been buried by the Palestine leaders, and then hang them all. The people of Palestine will thank you.

0230 GMT November 14, 2004

[Iraq Update by Joseag238]

· FALLUJAH US says Fallujah is occupied, but not pacified. Days are required for the house-to-house search that is underway.

· Radio KLVE: Pentagon says 1,500 insurgents have been killed.

· Iraqi Special Force and National Guard refused to fight insurgents in SE Fallujah and Jolan. A battalion of the Marine 7^th Regiment had to replace the Iraqi forces in that sector.

· US hospital sources in Germany say 400 wounded have been sent to them from Iraq. US KIA now 24.

· 1st Bn, 5th Inf Rgt, 25th InfDiv was ordered out of Fallujah and back to Mosul yesterday.

· 1st MarDiv says many insurgents couldn’t eat or drink for 7 days; some want to surrender because of fatigue, hunger, and sickness.

· Violence flares in Hawija, Tel Afar, and 17 villages in between Ramadi and Fallujah. Insurgents have been in control – again – of Tel Afar for weeks now, after having being cleared out once.

· Fighting also at Al Qaim opposite the Syria border. This is a favorite infiltration are for insurgents.

· Mosul is quieter today. Kurdish troops patrolling in some streets; said to have killed 45 insurgents.

· US plans offensive in Mosul areas in two weeks.

· TURKEY TO INVADE IRAQ? Several readers have sent us an article by Bill Gertz of the Washington Times, which says Turkey plans a major invasion of Kurdistan in the coming weeks.

· We’d ignore this article. There is something known as aggression, and also something known as the UN, NATO, EU, etc. The Turks are not going to invade anyone.

· So what’s the story about?

· Everyone has his or her theory about Bill Gertz. Ours is that is not the great champion of truth that is constantly angering the Pentagon with his scoops, but a catspaw for the Pentagon. We’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he does not know this.

· The nearest we can come to an explanation for Gertz’s article is that Turkey has again told the US that Ankara will not stand for an independent Kurdistan, or even Kurdistan-within-Iraq. The Pentagon is hitting back by “leaking” Turkish “plans”. Now, we don’t doubt that some extreme generals are indeed talking about invading Iraq, and Turkey could be doing some leaking of its own to put pressure on the US. At the same time, we’ll wager that there are US generals who want to bomb Iran and DPRK back into the Stone Age. That doesn’t mean their views are Pentagon policy. Ditto for Turkey. Do not stay tuned. There is nothing to this report that need concern us.

1400 GMT November 13, 2004

[2^nd Update]

· FALLUJAH Media says that US forces began last push against insurgents Friday night, and one officer on scene expected to have control of the SE industrial district by 1400 local time Saturday [1100 GMT and 0600 Washington time

· The same officer said the insurgents are boxed into an area 1000 by 500 meters.

· While we are wary of accepting media adjectives on the intensity of fighting, it would seem the US began the last push with the immense firepower it has demonstrated elsewhere.

· Groups of 5 to 20 insurgents have been surrendering to security forces elsewhere in the city. We mistakenly said 150 foreigners had been captured: the correct number is 15; 200 insurgents in all have been captured, and we expect the number to rise.

· US gives figures of 22 KIA – as there is a time lag in reporting, this figure is presumably higher. Of 170 wounded, 40 have returned to their units. There is some concern that these figures are not tallying with the casualties being received in Germany, even counting the usual daily arrivals from other parts of Iraq.

· Apparently when the US military said it was going to search every house, it was not employing a metaphor. A senior US officer says the amount of weapons and explosives unearthed has been astonishing. Moreover, apparently the US plans/is to check every civilian detained for explosives residue and other signs the person may be an insurgent.

· A 4-truck convoy of the Red Crescent attempted to enter Fallujah was turned away. The military said the area was too dangerous and that it was providing assistance to civilians. The number of civilians left behind is now estimated at 1000, a tiny fraction of the 250-300,000 population of the city.

· The convoy people said they had to come because families were lying dead in the street etc. Assuming these people have been correctly quoted, we wonder how they knew about families lying dead in the street: they are relying on the same media reports as we are, and so far there is no imagery to support the allegation.

· MOSUL Despite the usual cheerful “We’re All Right, Joe” assurances from the US military at Mosul, it appears that everything is not right. Insurgents are reported to be in control of part of the city, and the local security forces seem scarce. One reports says insurgents have taken over guarding important buildings.

· Nonetheless, we have no difficulty believing everything will be all right in a few days as the US turns its attention to Mosul. Further, there is a report that ethnic Kurds are turning out to patrol the streets.

· CURFEW The Iraq government has clamped 1600 HRS curfews in six cities, including Najaf.

· BAGHDAD The US/Iraq appear to be becoming progressively more aggressive in cracking down on anti-government/US clerics. A Baghdad mosque has been raided, weapons and literature seized, along with 23 suspects including clerics. We don’t know if this a replay of an early story or a new incident.

0130 GMT November 13, 2004

The following is a composite using MSNBC, ABC, AFP, CNN/Reuters, AP, Jose238, Belmont Club, Chester's Blog, UK Telegraph, Christian Science Monitor, and Mike Thompson.

OVERVIEW

· Thanks to the untiring effort of expert bloggers, we have proceeded from a situation of too little information to one of too much. Each blogger reads many sources, so even with overlaps, the amount of information/true analysis expands greatly. We see our job as providing summaries based on available information.

FALLUJAH

· SITUATION Friday night/Saturday morning US forces began the final push to control Fallujah. During Friday one officer said US/Iraq controlled 80% of Fallujah; other said they are dealing with the pop-ups – the left behinds (see below) Firday as spent cleaning up SE Fallujah. There is a report that the US Army is replacing the Marine battalion attacking the SE (Industrial zone) as the former has been in action non-stop for 100-hours and needs a break. The US death toll is up to 22; an increasing number of insurgents are being captured: 150 foreigners alone are in US custody.

· EXECUTED INSURGENTS US troops found the bodies of 20 executed insurgents. One report says they were killed for deserting their posts. Another says a bullet to the head killed a senior Zarqawi aide; the foreigners and the local insurgents could not agree if the bullet had been fired by a sniper or by a local insurgent. It would appear that already exacerbated differences lead to a split and the executions, presumably of the locals.

· Also found: the driver of the 2 missing French photogs, chained to a wall and left to die, an underground pit with two bodies and two brothers, emaciated but alive, sundry other executed people. The “slaughter house” where insurgents beheaded or otherwise killed hostages was blown up on Friday. The insurgents thoughtfully left behind files and CDs and other evidence of their activities

· TRUE DESCRIPTION OF WAR’S REALITIES The UK Telegraph carries a graphic story, written in the usual understated British way, that will give the more gung-ho Orbat.com readers momentary pause. Of interest to Indian readers is that that one actor on the US side is a Lt. Neil Prakash, an Army tank platoon commander apparently with Task Force 2-2 (2^nd Bn, 2^nd Inf Regt)

· US surveillance caught groups of insurgents crossing a road in the industrial SE district. The men went into an industrial building, just 50 meters from a mosque. An artillery strike was requested, but because of the proximity to the mosque, an hour elapsed before permission to fire was received. During this time Lt. Prakash and a Forward Observer were told to get in closer to provide more precise coordinates so the mosque could be avoided.

· An artillery unit fired a salvo of 20 155mm rounds from 3 km away. It hit precisely; Lt. Prakash requested 10 more rounds on the building and the road – insurgents were still moving into the building. The young officer saw one insurgent, apparently blown out of the building, hit the ground and then bounce about 30-feet into the air. Several more insurgents were flung upwards above the building. The FO was very enthusiastic about the explosions and the bodies flying through the air, Lt. Prakash was more restrained.

· Now, in that single incident, 70 insurgents died within seconds. Your editor, at least, finds difficult to conceive of force that would cause a human body to rise 30-feet into the air after hitting the ground. To the Forward Observer, it was a real-time 3D videogame. Think about what it might have looked like from the receiving end. No question those insurgents needed to die, just as rabid dogs have to be killed without qualm. For those on the receiving end, however, it was no video game.

· Apparently the US may have suffered its maximum loss 2 or 3 days back when it attacked the mosque being used as the Zarqawi HQ, and the insurgents staged a last desperate do and die attack. Fifty insurgents were killed, and possibly as many as 10 Americans too.

· Another example of reality vs video games. One source reporting from a makeshift clinic speaks of an insurgent writhing in agony as blood seeps from his eyes, ears, nose and mouth. Well, you see, that’s what happens when you are hit by concussion. The blast wave does not hurt the skin, but inside your head, chest, and abdomen you get – um – a bit liquefied. It looks like this insurgent was far enough to survive the blast, what happened later one does not know. Other sources have spoken of melted bodies laying the street. A bit different from the usual movie poses of dead fighters, we think.

· CIVILIANS A Fallujah police officer says 170 families were left before the attack – we’ll assume he meant in his district. That would, however, explain why the US has been happily firing away. After the attack began the US did drop leaflets designated safe escape routes. At then end of which troops were waiting to pass through women, children, and old men, and to detain 15-55 year old males. A necessary precaution: one correspondent reports insurgents shedding their black outfits and stacking their guns prior to walking out. They clarified to the newsperson they were not running away. They were escaping to fight at nearby insurgent strongholds. Okay, so we at Orbat.com believe anything anyone says. We accept you weren’t running away. It’s still a bad idea, because guess what – the Americans are waiting for you at the other strongholds.

· FASCINIATING INSURGENT TACTIC The Christian Science Monitor reports now that the battle itself is about over, sleeper cells of insurgents are drawing their weapons from caches and preparing to attack from behind the lines. An excellent idea, except with the US rounding up all males of military age, this tactic will not work. The sleepers have been telling US forces they remained behind only to protect their houses from looters and the insurgents tortured them. Well, there was a problem. This torture story seemed to be the only cover story the insurgents had, so with every group claiming the story, the Americans rather quickly figured out they were being had; of course, physical checks showed no signs of torture. In any case, whatever reason you stayed behind, as a military age male you are arrested on the spot.

· We wish the CSM reporter, who did a nice job, had realized that though the concept was good, the execution of the concept is going nowhere significant. Reading the story one would get the impression that oh no, the Americans are facing an even more serious problem.

· CONTROLLING THE AIR To anyone familiar with the complexities of controlling the air above the battle space, particularly given the Fallujah target box is small – most fighting is taking place within a 4 X 4 km square – the US’s weapons and tactics are straight out of Star Wars, the movie.

· AP reports that the US has no fewer then 20 types of aircraft up – simultaneously – stacked like a “wedding cake” from a few meters off the ground to 18 kilometers up. The lot consists of 10 types fixed wing, 3 types helicopter, and 7 types of UAVs. [There are more than 3 types of helicopters, but we’ll let that go for now]. Air support is provided in such density that each time aircraft are released for a strike, they have 3 minutes to do the job and get out of the way because another strike will be coming in somewhere else over Fallujah. The US is employing jamming to block cell phones and radio signal detonated explosive devices.

IRAQ: INSURGENT STRATEGY

· OVERVIEW We’ve refrained from bringing this up because the typical reader already is suffering from information overload. With the main Fallujah battle about over, though the total pacification will take some more days, we can talk about what’s happening in the rest of Iraq.

· Insurgents launched a coordinated series of attacks in several other towns/cities across Iraq as the Fallujah battle started. None except Mosul seems particularly serious, despite the media effort to create news. In Mosul, it seems a serious fight is going on between insurgents who attacked police stations, killing many police and executing those they captured, and US/Iraq forces. The latter have launched a US-led counter-offensive at the request of the provincial governor.

· This upsurge in attacks was anticipated by the US, which has been warning for weeks that trouble was coming as the election date drew near.

· The media effect of the attacks will be big, the military effect meaningless.

· TROOPS START DEPARTING FALLUJAH As early as Thursday, US troops began redeploying out of Fallujah. Particularly interesting to us was an item from KABC-TV via Joseag238 that a Marine LAV battalion had gone to Abu Gharib: something is going on in the suburb of Baghdad.

· We’d be wise to assume that fighting is taking place at all locations on the Baghdad-Fallujah road. There are indications that skirmishing, at least, has begun at Ramadi.

THE US & IRAQ GOVERNMENT GET TOUGH

· Also, US/Iraq forces stormed a mosque in Baghdad and arrested a senior Sunni cleric who had been telling Iraq troops not to fight for the government. Three more clerics on the big Sunni council have also been arrested. Clearly the gloves are off, the love and kisses set among the Americans are also off, and the hard men are in. The Americans can act as tough as they want now because they are working to the orders of the Iraq government. The last time a senior cleric was arrested in Baghdad, al-Sadr militia went into a prolonged campaign. This time, nothing. People, a bit of information for you: fear works faster than love.

· Please note that the US has been leveling mosques left and right with no international outcry. The reason the US is getting away with it is given below.

US HANDLING OF THE MEDIA: ANOTHER MASTERPIECE

· US Military control of the media was almost flawless in Gulf I, as a result of the bitter lessons of Vietnam. Control is absolutely necessary, because war is a terribly messy business, even the most just and clean of wars. The same techniques worked well in Gulf II, but then things just fell apart when Gulf II ended. The non-stop drumbeat of idiotic news has been a big constraint in fighting the insurgency.

· Now the US has got the news under tight control again.

· 1. Iraq is under martial law, and Baghdad has been saying to the media, without the need for finesse, if you don’t do as you’re told, it’s not the next plane out for you, it’s the nearest jail.

· 2. The US has clearly told embeds: you play by our rules, or we throw you out, and lets see how long you last if you try and report on your own. If the insurgents don’t get you, the huge amount of explosive we’re throwing around will. Oh, and not to forget: once you are on your own, you are subject to curfew. Oh dear, we do believe the curfew is 24-hours. Which means if you are in the street, night or day, our troops have firm instructions to shoot to kill.

· 3. US video crews are recording incidents right on the battlefield: someone is shooting from a minaret, the video crew takes pictures before the minaret is attacked. The idea is to refute false claims of damage.

· Oddly, or perhaps not so oddly, there is no constant screaming about US atrocities. The chief of the Fallujah hospital who had become a master of denying any insurgents had been killed – everyone brought in was a civilian – does not have control of his hospital from before the assault began. Jamming is stopping insurgents or their sympathizers from calling out.

· And this time the US/Iraq are going in with large caches of money to start reconstruction right away.

0300 GMT November 12, 2004

· FALLUJAH Thursday night Iraq time the US/Iraq launched an offensive south of Route 10 to finish off the insurgents. Joseag238 sends us media reports saying the US Marines have entered SE Fallujah – we had thought the industrial zone was under control by Iraq forces, but apparently the surviving insurgents did manage to cross Route 10 and get into SE and SW Fallujah. The new offensive, a 2^nd phase, will take care of the remnants. The cordon around the city has been tightened; US officers are confident few if any insurgents will get away.

· CASUALTIES 18 US, 5 Iraq KIA, some 150 US troops wounded seriously enough to require evacuation to Germany. Insurgent dead estimated at 5-600, but this is only a rough figure. Few insurgents have been captured: considering the firepower being used, this is understandable because once targeted, few insurgents will survive the air and artillery strikes.

· WEEPING & WAILING The US media have now found a new cause to beat its breast, because its obvious that the bulk of the terrorists left before the fighting started. At the same time, as we had mentioned yesterday, the US knew full well they would escape given the rather public buildup for the offensive. On top of that US generals are rather cheery when they say a good percentage of the insurgents have escaped. So we were a bit suspicious of what the US was up to.

· We have an answer thanks to reader Mike Thompson forwarding a link to Chester's Blog Chester is a former Marine. He makes the telling point that insurgents without a base are nothing. The base is critical, because they have to have a safe environment in which to train, reequip, rest, etc etc. What the US has done is deprived insurgents of their major base in Iraq, and Fallujah also happens to be the biggest base for foreigners. So the people who escaped don’t matter. Where will they escape to? Ramadi is going to be attacked next, as are several other bastions. Running to these bases means they have no time to organize.

· While Chester does not say so, we are fairly certain that by giving the rats the ship was to be sunk, the US intended to make the Fallujah offensive easier for itself, as well as to get the civilians out. That the insurgents fled is what the US wanted them to do.

· 5^th MARINE DIVISION? Welcome to the world of supposedly the best media people in the world, where a US Marine 5^th Division exists. This time its not just the Americans, it is darn nearly every major media source. Sorry to tell you, babaloos, there is no 5^th Marine Division. The last time the 5^th was activated was for Vietnam duty. You are probably misidentifying a 5^th Marines battalion.

· Our question is simply this. Is the elite of the media so stupid as not to know there is no 5^th Division? Is there not one person who said – “wait a minute, this doesn’t compute?” Why are the media blindly parroting each other?

· Well, we have a theory that fits the facts, but may well be nonetheless incorrect – there may be other theories to fit the facts. Our theory is that the world’s top media is in bed with each other as usual. Someone was given the responsibility of listening to briefings and then report back to the whole pool. This person got it mixed up. And no one knew better, to crrect him, and neither did the fact checkers back home.

· Is the media embarrassed at this really 1^st Grade type of boo-boo? We doubt it. The international media think they are gods, to the extent if a hundred elephants did their business on a hundred journalists, it would not occur to one that s/he is stinking and needs a bath. Bah.

· ODDS AND ENDS Dramatic imagery of the stench of decomposing corpses and so on, made undramatic by every source saying the same thing. Lack of originality. One source (we think CNN) did add a snippet where an Iraqi tells the journalist(s) that the Americans are shooting at anything that moves in the street. Snipers killed two men trying to pick up a corpse. Well, the Boomer generation in America doesn’t believe any rules apply to them, so we shouldn’t be surprised that people in other parts of the world should start thinking the same. The US did repeatedly announce there is a 24 hour curfew in effect, and anyone violating the curfew would be shot. Now what part of that did the residents not understand? We don’t mean to be unsympathetic: perhaps the dead person was their father or their brother and they were just trying to bury him. These men in all likelihood were probably acting at night, thinking they wouldn’t be seen. They were probably simply dumb, and being dumb is not a criminal act. But it can cost people their lives if there is a war on: this goes as much for the soldiers as for the civilians.

· Fancy this. A pickup is scuttling around, presumably at night, making many stops at various houses. The drops continue, till out of the night, the pickup is blown to bits. What the pickup did not know was that it was being watched, possibly by a micro UAV. The watchers took their time before deciding to act, there was no impetuosity here. Having decided the van was up to no good – and please remember, there was a curfew, the watchers, who happened to be gunners, dropped a shell in front of the truck. Apparently the US is using precision artillery shells. The last time we heard anything was when the Copperhead shell flunked the grade: too expensive, too inaccurate, too vulnerable to battlefield smoke etc. That must have been about 3 decades ago?

· Also, fancy this. The US drops a bomb on a house where insurgents are huddled. As the smoke clears, some surviving insurgents are seen running for another house. When they get there, another bomb is dropped.

· Frankly, if the insurgents haven’t learned by now what the US can do, they deserve to die. The battlefield is no place for anyone except the strongest. War is probably the most direct and the most brutal proof of Darwinism. If these insurgents had been press-ganged average Alis, as were the tens of thousands of Iraqi soliders who died in Gulf I, we can, and should, be sorrowful for them. But these insurgents volunteered to create unlawful mayhem in the name of their religion.

· ARAFAT The PLO leader has officially died. He will be buried in Gaza.

· COTE D’IVORIE The situation vis-à-vis the foreign residents is more serious than we had thought. Foreigners have been killed, women have been assaulted, and foreign businesses and schools burned down. 2500 have been evacuated; 1300 French nationals are on a volunteer list for evacuation but this could increase. A rebel leader says the country is headed for civil war; presumably he means the civil war which was stopped by the French/UN will resume and got to its logical end. African and EU states plus the UN are convening an emergency conference in Nigeria on Sunday, under the leadership of the South African PM. Apparently the potential spill-over of the Ivory Coast conflict could destabilize the whole region, thus the alarm.

THE WASHPOST AS A SUICIDE PROFITEER

· If we go by the media reports, for example, Thursday’s WashPost story about a Yemeni father of six who decided he had to go to heaven, this lot is positively salivating at the thought of fighting the infidels. Well, young fella, curse the infidels as much as you like, at least they are granting your dearest wishes. We hope the Americans got you.

· The WashPost story is another masterpiece of inanity. If the WashPost had written the story about an American who was determined to leave his children and swore not to return alive from the crusade, we wonder if the WashPost would have painted so sympathetic a picture. WashPost would probably be making fun of this psychopath, however much of a loving father he might have been, however gentle his eyes, however calm his words. Not all psychos go around yelling and screaming a la American horror movies, you know.

· If your correspondent really cared for this person, if only as a human being, he would have at the least not have demeaned this Yemani by pretending to write a fair and balanced article but instead clearly, repeatedly, pointing out how sick this man is/was. Here is this man, determined to commit suicide because of some bizarre confusion about religion, and the WashPost is making a big story of it. To do what? Understand the mind of the insurgents? Dude, there’s nothing to understand. The sane insurgents did a cost-benefit analysis and left. So what are you going to do now, WashPost? Get up an album with all the pictures and the interview and send them to his wife and kids? Use that as an excuse to take photographs of their grief so you can sell more papers? Take up a collection for his kids college education in the States?

· Oh, sorry, we forgot: the journalists actually believe they are not supposed to pass judgment, only to report a story as if they are recording machinery. Great idea. When did you last use this admirable technique when you were reporting on Americans.

· And BTW, WashPost, you wont even make money on this. This may shock you, but your readers are – sorry about that – Americans in Washington Metro area. Few are going to bother even reading the story. Sure, there are many hundred thousand immigrants in the area. But they will be even less inclined to care.

0330 GMT November 11, 2004

· FALLUJAH Nothing new to report, except kudos to the New York Times actually bothered to put out a graphic identifying all six battalions in the Fallujah attack, 4 Marine and 2 Army, as well as their direction of attack – all six went from north to south. Apparently the insurgents were expecting an attack from the east, in any case it wouldn’t have made any difference from where the attack came, the result would have been the same.

· Iraq forces have taken Jolan over from the Marines. An Iraq major-general has come with them as Fallujah administrator. The police station and other government buildings are back in Iraq hands. Also apparently, US engineers were already planning the reconstruction of Fallujah weeks before the attack – that’s excellent, and something the US should have done with Gulf II. But what’s highly unusual is a new innovation in warfare. The engineers coordinated with the fighting troops to ensure the US destroyed as little of the infrastructure as possible. The commanders still had final say in what was going to get blown up, but if at all they could compromise without risk to their men, they understood the importance of what the engineers were saying.

· We get the impression some of the six battalions are now turning west toward the Euphrates, pushing what remains of the resistance into the river.

· Major combat operations should cease by Friday; US commanders say complete cleanup should take 10 days.

· The US is putting on its Gee Golly Galoshes act that it does so well. Gee, looks like Zarqawi got away. Golly, some substantial number of insurgents also got away before the fighting started. Come on, gentlemen. You’re the ones who gave 88 warnings before starting the attack, and you knew darn well anyone with sense would exit gracefully. At this point we wont speculate why the US might have made as sure as possible that as many insurgents as possible should not be present.

· There’s a report we’re hesitant about because we’re unsure of the reporter/s had it right. But apparently the US had 8 aircraft up at all times for tactical support. Assuming it was true for all times and not just for one particular time, this is serious tactical air support, considering the front was about 4 km wide. And if you have medium guns and MLRS available in abundance as well, then you are really doing your best to blow up everything to facilitate passage of your troops.

· THE LONDON TIMES Reader Mike Thompson forwards an article from the London Times via the Australian, in which a correspondent tells of his battle. The writing is crisp, to the point, aimed purely at giving us the flavor of the battle rather than showing how great the reporter is, and eerily realistic. You feel you are there along with the reporter, as for example when he mentions that inside a Bradley IFV the world at night is seen on green screens so sharp they show the rats scampering in the alleys. He describes how he is wounded by shrapnel with the same intensity he might describe a stubbed toe. The report is written, at all times, in understated terms avoiding the dramatic, the rhetorical, the self-aggrandizing – and that’s precisely what gives the report its punch. American media journos: learn something from the man. Whoever he is, he’s a pro.

· SUING THE WASHINGTON POST Your editor is planning a suit against the WashPost for injuries he suffered today. He was working peacefully at his computer when the phone rang. “Do you realize,” said a friend, “that today the WashPost has actually quoted one Iraqi who supports the invasion of Fallujah and is glad the Americans are helping his country?” Your editor was so shocked that he inadvertently pushed back his rolling chair with such force he went clear across the second floor landing, was ejected from his chair when it fell over the first of many stairs leading to the first floor (ground floor in Indian parlance) and then slid down every step with the chair on top. He passed out, in the little hall onto which the doors of both bedrooms open. Who knows what might have happened had his wife not decided to return from her new place to her bedroom to pick up a lipstick. When she stepped on your editor with a high heel, he was sharply returned to life. On hearing his squawks, his wife, snatching her lipstick, stepped on him again on the way back, and saying: “You crawl all you want, I’m not returning, and you are so low even the floor is too good for you” she stormed out of the house. At least she revived your editor who was able to feebly crawl to the medicine cabinet and take a painkiller or too – the liquid kind that comes in a bottle.

· The Washington Post has no business suddenly deviating from its standard line without warning. We suspect interviewing that one Iraqi was intended precisely to kill your editor. Well, WashPost, you made a mistake here. Tomorrow I am coming in to smack your editor with my pink lace hanky and a lawsuit. You are going to be so sorry you had the unbelievable temerity to catch me by surprise like that.

1200 GMT November 10, 2004

[2nd Update]

· FALLUJAH In terms of the big picture, the Fallujah battle is about done. Reports from media 0700 HRS WASHINGTON/1500 HRS BAGHDAD have US commanders saying they have 70% of the city under control, Jolan is said to be under Marine control; please keep in mind the statement were issued in the morning, Iraq time, so the situation should have advanced some more. Fighting overnight and into the early part of the morning - say around 0800 Iraq/1201 Washington - was reported as light to moderate. US casualties overnight (Iraq time) were reported as "extremely light"

· US commanders say the insurgents are disorganized and non-cohesive; as expected, they are taking pot shots and then running, but with the exception of some who must have got through south of the dividing line Route 10, where Iraqi forces are working, there is no place for them to go.

· Interestingly, US has seized written orders complete with signatures etc, and has obtained reports of commanders being saluted etc. This would be the ex-Army Sunnis; since it is unlikely the foreigners and "ordinary" insurgents would take orders from anyone, it appears there was a military-style organized resistance side by side with the insurgent "commands".

· Nonetheless, we should not be surprised that with the US unleashing its firepower, as well as employing hi-tech, the insurgents did not have the slightest chance of holding up the US advance.

· TACTICAL SITUATION Readers should keep a watch for stories that will now be run - "despite US claims of control, twice yesterday firing was reported in a supposedly secure area" etc etc These will be worthless stories for two reasons.

· One, in any urban battle, there are always holdouts. The troops are going building-to-building looking for insurgents, booby traps and weapons, this is a tedious process even after a city has fallen and does result in casualties.

· Two, Fallujah has 77 mosques that have been indiscriminately used as fighting positions by insurgents - so much for the babble about the defilement of Holy Paces - sorry, our bad: its defilement if an American shoots at a sniper in a mosque minaret, its perfectly okay for the insurgents to fight from mosques because their God has said its okay. Well, your editor's God tells him many things, some of which would see him inside a jail right quick were he foolish enough to listen to his Big Man's words. Back to the point: the US is not entering the mosques but waiting for the Iraqis to clean them up. The Iraqis are few in number, and both physically and morally this is a very hard job for anyone of the faith. This is going to take some days, though not weeks.

· THE NEXT BIG THING is Ramadi. It's a relatively small town compared to Fallujah, but holds many insurgents. Yesterday and earlier there were reports that the US Marines were withdrawing snipers from the town, and pulling out from their positions. The insurgents, with their characteristic inability to put  two thoughts together unless its about women - and then that is one thought - have been running around making utter fools of themselves by cheering their victory.

· The Belmont Club (reports forwarded by reader Mike Thompson), which appears to be a group of retired military people, and which is putting out the best detailed reports of the fighting (we are focusing on the overview from all sides, there is no way we can match people like Belmont) makes the point that you withdraw your outposts of your own choice only because you are clearing the decks for action. The unit at Ramadi, 1/5th Marines, has apparently gone next door to Fallujah, perhaps as a reserve, but fairly soon the Marines, and this time the Army too, are going to attack Ramadi. That is where the other Marine/Army units we haven't heard from are gathering. No predictions from us on a time.

· MEDIA LUNACY Every single Western major media report we have seen say two sentences about Fallujah and then immediately jump to "The Fallujah offensive is not universally supported by Iraqis". Okay, Mr. and Ms. Dumbo - sorry, our bad again - Walt Disney's flying elephant Dumbo could have taken media people in the 1st  minute of an IQ test - here are is a headline for you.

· PRESIDENT BUSH REJECTED BY OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF AMERICANS Only 55% of Americans bothered to vote, indicating wholesale disgust with the so called "democracy" in the United States. Of those that votes, a bare majority chose Mr. Bush among several serious allegations of voter fraud perpetrated  by his party. Not just has he been chosen by a little over over 1 in 4 American voters, making this the most illegitimate election held anywhere in the world in the 21st Century, but even the 1 in 4 vote for him is being disputed. Mr. John Smith, of Podunk, Iowa told us that in his precinct, dozens of purple stuffed dinosaurs were seen casting votes for Mr. Bush, and this is one of only 1000 reports we received when we asked voters to phone us if they saw fraud....

· How long would the Post reporter who wrote that story last in her/his job?

· In closing, hint to major US media. If you get a situation in which there is no serious dissent, you have what's called - um - a dictatorship. The fact of the dissent is not relevant, its the scale. We dare you to ask Gallup or some other organization to take a poll of the Iraqis about Fallujah. We predict 80% support it. For our stake, we're putting down a classroom, a giant ass-head, and chalk. when you lose, you will don that head a la Midsummer's Night, and keep writing on the board: "I am an ass". You will not stop till the universe ends, and even then you will not have redeemed yourself.

0130 GMT November 10, 2004

· FALLUJAH FIGHTING DIES DOWN, REPORT AROUND 1800 HRS BAGHDAD, 1000 HRS WASHINGTON, ON 11/9. Sooner than we anticipated – and we expected sooner than the US military expected – fighting was dying down Tuesday afternoon in Fallujah. US reports 10 KIA, no one is wasting time counting insurgent casualties, but we can infer from accounts these been very heavy. We were wrong about the tactics being used – see below. Joseag238 has researched all items in green.

· FALLUJAH COMPOSITE BBC reports that no civilians were to be seen, we infer from the report details their person is in Jolan.

· KCAL TV News reported 1st MarDiv captured hundred insurgents at train station after they attempt fled northern Fallujah. Reuters photographer told KCAL News insurgent ran out of ammo, RPG and weapons.

· Waco, Texas-based KWTX TV says , 2nd Bde Combat Team, 1st CavDiv reinforces 1st MarDiv in Jolan; Reuters cameraman witness says 1st MarDiv and 1st InfDiv suffered heavy casualties, mostly wounded.

· KWTX TV reported residents saying that insurgents have threatened to use the civilians who remained behind as human shields.

· Seattle Times reports Al-Nazzal and Al-Shohada are under Iraq forces control.These districts lie to the west of the industrial zone (SE Fallujah) and to the south of Route 9. If you look at the line running straight from the industrial zone to the Euphrates, and divide the line into three, these two districts are at about 1/3^rd east of the river. This means the Iraqi forces should have pushed E to W through all of S Fallujah by late afternoon today.

· Hassan Mahmoud, a 28 years old insurgent, told whomever Seattle Times is using as feed that said he saw comrades shooting at US surveillance planes. He reported seeing "lots of injured militants being taken to houses" for medical treatment.

· EXPLOSIVE PACKED CARS AND BOOBY TRAPS Cincinnati Enquirer newspaper reported AC-130 Spectre gunships eliminated the risk of car bombs by flying over parked cars along city streets and destroying each car. 1st InfDiv soldier said they clear thousand roadside bombs before advanced to NW and N of Jolan. According to residents, the main road leading into al-Mualemeen district from the east was packed with hidden explosives, with row after row of black cables leading into roadside ditches. Fighters said even grocery stores were booby-trapped. This district is just to the N of Route 10, and abuts both on Jolan and Askari districts.

· THE 4/14^th MARINES AT WORK The 4/14^th is a reserve 155mm howitzer battalion from the 4^th Marine Division. Radio KLVE reported resident witnesses told AFP photographic that body parts are everywhere in Jolan due to heavy shelling by the Marines. AFP said several buildings were destroyed in NW Jolan by 4/14.

· Xinhua reports clinic medics say roofs of high building were turned into fighting position for snipers from both sides shooting at anything moving, even animals. [Readers, Xinhua is the Chinese official news agencies and is almost certainly using another agency as feed.]

· ANALYSIS First, our thanks to Joseag238 for his yeoman work in covering so many news sources. Second, we were wrong on the tactics the Marines would use. We had anticipated they would advance slowly and carefully to avoid civilian casualties and use their snipers for precision kill. The Army, we had mentioned, was already blasting its way through Askari as is the wont of the mechanized forces.

· But it’s important for serious analysts to appreciate that the US Marines also have been using very heavy firepower to clear their way. Reports speak of curtains of fire being dropped just 1 to 2 city blocks ahead of Marines and Iraq forces as the latter advance. Even the heaviest shelling, if conducted over a brief period, will leave people alive in the rubble and in buildings that are not targeted. These people are putting up a good fight, but they are more interested in trying to stay alive. The attitude seems to be that the Virgins can wait, and truly, this is a sensible attitude.

· But, you will say, what about the civilians? After gabbing so much about concern for civilians, why are the Americans killing them? Well, the clue lies in the BBC report. There aren’t any civilians in BBC’s sight. Of course, there must be some around. But if you insist on staying despite weeks of the Americans telling you what’s coming down the pike, then perhaps you’d better blame yourself.

· Among the items in use by the combat engineers in Fallujah is the mine clearing line charge. We freely admit it never occurred to us the Americans would use it to clear those thousands of booby traps the insurgents laid. This gadget is a line adorned with 1000-kg of explosive. You fire it (BTW, is this fired by the CEVs?) and this long line unreels, and detonates every explosive booby trap within range when it explodes. You not just have the 1-ton explosion of the line; you have lots of other explosions for a nice effect.

· The US Army has even been using its Multiple Launch Rocket Systems against Fallujah targets. These are area weapons, intended not for precision, but to kill everything within a wide area. The Army apparently had to stop using MLRS as troops pushed deeper into Fallujah, and from different sides. But that they were using it at all shows there was some assurance civilians had vacated the area.

THE WASHINGTON POST ACHIEVES A NEW HIGH IN ITS IQ – IDIOT QUOTIENT, THAT IS

· The Washington Post, in its edition of 11/9 reports without the slightest comment a conversation with insurgents in which they calmly boast about how they long to be martyrs. At one point they tell of an insurgent who thought he was dead and was approaching his first Virgin just before he regained consciousness. The man’s reaction? He weeps bitterly.

· The first thing we want to advise this young man, if he is still alive, never let yourself fall into the hands of western psychiatrists: unless you say you were on drugs, they will tear you to shreds in short order.

· The second thing your editor wants to share with this man, whether he is on earth or in heaven: Your editor also has dreams he is in heaven surrounded not by just one Virgin, but a minimum of four. He is just about to …And the alarm goes off. Your editor also weeps bitter tears. Does this make him a jihadi? Obviously not. It makes him 100% normal. So, youngster, get over yourself. You aren’t special, perhaps a little “special” (think Austin Powers, but what the hey, some American psychiatrists below the whole world is mentally ill by some definition or the other. Then people say the people in the straitjackets and padded cells are the crazy ones.

· The Post piece is like a parody of jihadis. The words that emanate from their mouth impress no one; instead they make one roll with laughter. What terrific acting, and done with such a straight face – that what one wants to say.

· At another point the Post reports the insurgents as saying that there is hardly any pain when you die (indeed, you are right, babaloos, but the fighter who dies a clean death is counted as lucky). One insurgent tells of a suicide bomber: his car was completely burned out, but when they found his body in it, he had nary a mark on him.

· The insurgents engage in the worst kind of puffery and the Post doesn’t see fit to ask one critical question? Why are we blaming al-Jazeera for its one sided reporting? Our own Post outdoes al-Jazeera.

· After a year and a half of reading the nonsense the Post has been putting out on the insurgents, it suddenly hit us what’s happening. The Post’s reporters have so little knowledge of Arabs that they honestly cannot go beyond the words.

· Moreover, we would not be surprised if the Post’s reporters are being politically correct – you have your way and I have mine. The insurgents are talking to Americans who despise the US Government just as much as the insurgents do, and because these are brown foreigners, the Post thinks it must listen to them without once questioning their words. Back home, of course, the Post is ready to rip anyone into shreds at the first misspoken word. But its okay to attack Americans, particularly White Americans – the Post has few minority correspondents, by the way. Jihadis are pure and honest, if perhaps a bit misguided. The Post’s own people are the sickos.

· Its not the jihadis who need therapy.

· By the way, WashPost, why don’t you come and interview Orbat.com’s editor? He has some fascinating true tales to tell you. Did you know about the 20-foot long alligators that live in the US Congress’ sewers and occasionally emerge from the commode? That why Congress is always in such a hideous mood when in session…they can never go to the bathroom…but let me tell you the time the alligator got one senator who was sitting doing his business…no, really, its all true, and if you don’t believe me, I’ll say you’re racist and hate foreigners…

1315 GMT November 9, 2004

[2^nd Update, thanks to Joseag238 for Jolan news from Radio KLVE]

· ANTICIPATED SITUATION 11/9 2000 HRS BAGHDAD TIME & 11/9 0800 HRS WASHINGTON TIME At this time, US should have completed the division of Fallujah city into 4 quadrants some hours ago, isolating insurgents in each of the quadrants. The bottom two quadrants should be coming under Iraqi control. The NE quadrant (Askiri district) should have been penetrated from N to S by the Army. The NW quadrant (Jolan district) should have seen the stage set for the real fight which may have begun at nightfall.

· MAJOR CAVEAT Please keep in mind narratives such as ours represent an attempt to impose order on an inherently chaotic situation. The situation on the ground will not be as neatly defined as we have defined.

· SITUATION 11/9 1201 HRS BAGHDAD TIME; 0400 HRS WASHINGTON with our usual caveats that our analysis is based on very limited information:

· SE FALLUJAH [INDUSTRIAL DISTRICT] Iraqi forces had attacked this area.

· SW FALLUJAH The Marines may have crossed the Euphrates bridges as a subsidiary attack and may have made significant progress advancing east along Route 10, to link up with the Army. Objective would be to isolate SW, where little resistance is anticipated, to prevent southward movement of Jolan insurgents, and to protect flank of the Jolan main thrust.

· NE FALLUJAH The Army has reached the city center along the main N – S road, thus blocking escape of insurgents from Jolan into Askiri. Inside the Askiri District (NE) the Army appears to have penetrated halfway or more to the center of the district. A subsidiary thrust from the east appears to be closing the eastern half of Route 10, preventing Askiri insurgents from escaping S into industrial zone in SE Fallujah.

· SW FALLUJAH The main thrust from NW Fallujah into the heart of Jolan appears to be proceeding slowly, as anticipated, against tough insurgent resistance. While the Army in Askiri has no walk-over, the hard fighting is taking place in Jolan.

· WEST OF THE EUPHRATES The British are operating along the west bank of the Euphrates, widely strung out between N Baghdad and SW Fallujah, to prevent insurgents escaping across the river. There is no mention of this in the UK press, and the operation may have been an inadvertent slip of the tongue by a US commander. British requirement for their troops to participate would be contingent on a quiet sector, out of the light, so as not to inflame anti-war British.

· OVERALL Fighting and casualties have been lighter than anticipated. Fallujah is, of course, surrounded along its perimeter. Two USMC M-1 tanks have been hit and burned in the street fighting, crews escape with noone killed. A Kiowa recon/attack Army helicopter is hit by ground fire, returns for a safe landing. Disagreement on how many people are in Fallujah, estimates run from 10% of population to 50%. US is freely using air strikes and artillery in NE, at least, indicating residents have fled to the point the Army is comfortable with unleashing its firepower.

0300 GMT November 9, 2004

· ANTICIPATED SITUATION 11/9 0600 BAGHDAD TIME & 11/8 2200 WASHINGTON TIME If the Iraqi Defense Minister has it right, at this time US should have begun its general assault on Fallujah.

· SITUATION 11/8 1800 BAGHDAD TIME & 1000 WASHINGTON TIME The Marine launched what appears to be a 2-battalion attack into Jolan District, after nightfall. As best known (CNN) Marines advanced 1000 meters.

· EXTRAPOLATED BEST GUESS 1: STRATEGY With the usual caveats that we are working from very limited information, it would appear that the Army is to advance at speed down the N-S road dividing Jolan (NW) and Askiri (NE) districts, blocking insurgent movement from either district toward the center of the city. They will then advance simultaneously west and east along a general line based on Route 10. Else Marines will put in a new attack across the Euphrates bridges to form the west block, and Army will move from the east on the Route 10 line. This would cut the insurgents in the two districts off from each other and the center.

· LIKELY TACTICAL SITUATION Here we are on firmer ground as the media reports contain several clues. The Army has blown through the booby-trapped barricades and buildings with ease. Of course, it was helped by the air strikes mounted over the last 48 hours that had these barricades/buildings as a primary mission.

· The Marines also seem to have encountered nothing extraordinary in their slower (as planned) attack from west to east.

· Indeed, our intuition tells us, based on a few phrases dropped by the military, that to this point resistance is considerably lighter than anticipated, raising the question of how many insurgents are actually in the city. The men who fled need have done so before the assault began: once the insurgents gained a basic understanding of the US routes of advance etc., it would make sense for them to withdraw as rapidly as possible. It would also make sense to hide their weapons and mix with the civilians instead of trying to escape because the US controls the ground around the city.

· Incidents such as the one where a UAV spotted 15-20 men running from advancing US tanks and attempting to set up an ambush will not be particularly morale boosting for the insurgents. The group was “neutralized”, i.e. killed.

· FALLUJAH MAP First, please click on the Fallujah map link above. Its at 1:10,000 scale, so a centimeter on the map is 100 meters in real life. These are the sort of maps we plan to carry one day when we have the resources, but also visit Globalsecurity.org - they spend a big chunk of their limited money on such maps.

1845 GMT November 8, 2004

· Next, throw out any previous notions you may have gathered from the editor's descriptions. One of the thing your editor was supposed to be able to do was to create a mental map from a few clues. He is happy he still has the ability; he is not happy he's still reversing things (dyslexia diagnosed at age 53, when he started teaching children). So any image you may have previously got is completely flipped over - for example, you will see the Euphrates is at left in the picture, your editor had it on the right in his mind's eye.

· Once you've got a handle on the map, the fighting at this point becomes kindergarten stuff to figure out.

· TIME From the clocks you can see Baghdad is 3 hours ahead of GMT and Washington 8 hours behind Baghdad. It is our general impression that the news from Iraq takes about 4-6 hours to hit the internet news sites. Therefore, you should usually think of getting the news about 12 hours after it happened. So below we will be talking about the fighting before noon in Iraq.

· GENERAL DEPLOYMENTS The Marines are to the west, the Army to the north. Both are attacking from the desert that surrounds Fallujah.

· BATTLE AS OF BEFORE NOON BAGHDAD TIME 11/8 The western ends of the two bridges over the Euphrates - look to the left of the map - are in US/Iraq hands, as is the General hospital, west of the river.

· The US Army has seized the railroad station in the north. Look around W 92 and N 55. [Other reports indicate that 1st Cavalry Division armor supported the Marines as the latter took the station. This means the Marines/Army are coming into Jolan district from the northwest at the same time as the...

· ...Marines have entered Jolan district from the west.  Jolan is the insurgent strong hold. This means the Marines are east of the Euphrates, but we don't know if there is another bridge for the road that runs parallel to the railway line, or if the river meanders sharply west. If the latter, then the Marines would not need to cross the river.

· This double thrust is the same thing we saw at Najaf, and it's very hard to execute: you have to have exquisite coordination between the 2 thrusts.

· Meanwhile, the 1st Cavalry Division has entered the Askari district to the Northwest.

· US commanders expect they will push the insurgents into the center of the city, where the insurgents will make their last stand. It goes without saying the US is going to do its best to make sure insurgents do not break away to the center - see below.

· SUMMARY. Depending on if the insurgents can disengage and group elsewhere, most of Fallujah might escape serious damage.

· Mike Thompson forwards an article from the San Francisco Chronicle which lays out Marine tactics in a straight forward way. In a repeat of the April fighting and the battle for Najaf, the Marines are infiltrating forward to put their snipers in dominating builds, block by block. The snipers are going to kill any male between the ages of 15 and 60  who moves in the street. With any luck, the insurgents will not even know which buildings the Marines hold until they get hit. And the Marines will be supported by their robot vehicles and UAVs - much simplifying the "look around the corner" situation, which results in serious losses for the attacker - or did in the past, before the new technology.

· This is going to be a slow and steady battle. We are not going to see a smashup like the Battle for Berlin, because the US is trying to avoid civilian casualties.

· The question is, what tactics will the Army use. Snipers have become important to the US Army, but nonetheless, both the Army brigades are heavy, fully mechanized, and with lots of tanks and Self-Propelled artillery.  Inching forward is not the Army's style, particularly not the Cavalry's style - please note the same 2/7th Cavalry that led the advance to Baghdad is back in action. Readers will remember the bust-up the Army created when they entered Baghdad. Just to show who was boss, they sent a a task force charging along the main road around Baghdad, shooting up everything in sight before the Iraq Army could as much as react. If your editor recalls right, they lost one tank which they towed back under fire. This is only are guess, but we'd suggest readers should expect some kind of a sudden, showy, and decisive bust-out put on by the Army.

· We've said this before, it bears repeating: we hope the Marines are not going to show their usual habit of charging on no matter what the opposition numbers. The Marines are so confident of their ability to outfight anyone, regardless of the disparity in numbers, that they often are rash - by most standards - and they lose people without needing to. Fallujah is only one campaign in a long war in Iraq, and unless the fundamentalists see sense, Iraq is just one campaign in a long world war.

· NICE TOUCH Congratulations to whoever came up with the idea of preparing a big morgue area - we presume at the hospital - then walking the embedded journalists around, with gentle hints the US is going to need a big morgue because they are to kill the insurgents in large numbers. It is by itself not a big deal, but certainly when you as an insurgent are under attack, you get a bit nervous when your satellite TV shows the place your dead body is going to be thrown.

· OPERATION DAWN Iraq is calling its part of the operation "Dawn". The using is using "Phantom Fury", which we will not comment on.

· Media says 2/3rds of the men in an Iraqi battalion deserted before the battalion was to start fighting.

· We have no clue what the Iraq Army is going to do in this case, but this is not a good time to desert. The Iraqis - and the Americans - have been understanding of past desertions, but this time the Iraq Army has its honor at stake. Also, to desert at the front is different from deserting before getting anywhere near the front, as happened before the April fight for Fallujah. The Army does not need it, but martial law is in force. The Iraq Army will have to make an example of the deserters. If deserting had no consequences, few armies would enter battle at anything approaching full strength.

1330 GMT November 8, 2004

[2^nd Update]

· FALLUJAH US troops have entered the city from the Northwest and West. The city is divided by the Euphrates, and US forces control the western ends of the two key bridges after they were seized shortly after midnight, in the same operation that saw Iraqi forces take the hospital. The Iraqi PM says 38 insurgents were killed in the hospital area. Another 7 are said killed in the western areas, according to an Iraqi clinic. Insurgents have tried counterattacking the hospital without success.

· The main insurgent force is in the Eastern part of Fallujah, with the Jolan district being the main stronghold.

· US appears to have partially unleashed its air power: MSNBC says “two dozen” sorties were flown. Meanwhile, the AC-130 that has been attacking Fallujah targets for at least the second day, is busy. We would assume there are at least 2 aircraft involved. Reports also speak of the Marines using tank fire and medium artillery.

· While all this sounds terribly dramatic, readers should keep in mind that as yet the US is only probing while the troops get into position. Since the news is given to us with events of several hours compressed into short reports, it’s easy to get the impression that some version of Hue City or Stalingrad is in progress, whereas the activity underway is more akin to skirmishing, with the US forcing insurgents to give away their positions and then attacking the positions from the air. We have an overview, but the men on the ground see only 50-100 meters ahead, and from their viewpoint, even when and if major fighting develops, its going to be the classic minutes of terror and hours of boredom. Combat takes place in sporadic outburst. And even during major fighting most of the city will appear to be quiet.

· 3/1 Marines is identified as being in the fight.

· ABIDJAN French forces have rescued a total of 750 foreigners from mobs and potentially dangerous situations. Because the story is being told from the French point of view, we tend to forget that while French civilians are in the majority, there are present probably hundreds, if not thousands, of other nationalities.

· France’s tough response to this crisis, which began when Ivory Coast fighters bombed French positions, killing 9 soldiers, is backed by the EU and the African Union. The UN is to be asked to impose sanctions on the government, including a travel ban and, we assume, a seizure of government and individual members’ overseas account.

0400 GMT November 8, 2004

· FALLUJAH ASSAULT 1^st STEP The 36^th Commando Battalion, Iraq National Guard, backed by US Marines, seized the general hospital and two bridges across the Euphrates. The hospital was taken as a center for treating Iraq/US casualties, and also to stop the constant flow of propaganda that emanates from this hospital. Every time the US strikes Fallujah, the hospital proclaims the victims brought in were civilian.

· Insurgents do not take their dead to the hospital, and nor do they wear uniforms. So every wounded person brought in is a civilian. Surely they have been many true civilian casualties as the insurgents have for some time now been seizing homes to meet in. That is not the same thing as insisting every person entering is a true civilian.

· Reporters including Iraq nationals will be embedded with the units to give a more accurate picture of who comes into the hospital. A smart move, this.

· US commanders are upping the ante with the usual “trash talk”, except – of course – they mean every word. A 1^st Infantry Division commander is quoted as saying his men are going to go all the way through the town and if anyone is still left, his men will go all the way back again. Another commander talks of the possibility of the toughest urban fighting since Vietnam. Here we respectfully disagree. These insurgents are not the Viet Cong or the NVA. They are, as commanders have often said, a bunch of cowardly fighters. The US has had no problem clearing out insurgents whenever a free hand is allowed.

· A small mercy, if the report is correct: only 50,000 civilians are left in Fallujah. Please note that all parts of the city are not under insurgent control; if these people are in free areas they are relatively safe.

· We suspect the worst possible spot in which a Fallujah resident can find himself today is that of an armed fighter opposed to the insurgents. We can reasonably assume that Iraq intelligence has long since infiltrated the city and the good guy groups have been tagged. In the confusion of fighting, however, these men will find themselves targeted by all sides.

· Reader Mike Thompson sends in a news story saying many insurgents may have left Fallujah by now to carry on the fight elsewhere. The article also mentions that the US will make unprecedented of UAVs and other remote systems for command, control, and reconnaissance. If the darn things work in heavy combat – and by now they should, this is going to be quite a different fight compared to urban warfare of the past.

· A COMMENT CNN finds “chilling” the reality of Marines writing “kill numbers” on their hands with indelible ink, for rapid identification on the battlefield. Your editor doesn’t find this particularly chilling, but here is an example of a situation he thought macabre: in the Royal Navy of World War II, when combat was imminent, the sailors had to change into clean underwear to minimize the risk of infected wounds.

· As a footnote, the article Mr. Thompson sends has some lyrical writing about the Marines traveling thousands of miles as “Pilgrims of Death” to meet the enemy they have been waiting to kill. Now look, fellas, we want you back alive. Learn something from the Army and look after yourselves. Agreed a glorious death in action is something to be aspired to, but your editor, at least, feels if you are not there to enjoy the glories, it’s a bit of a waste. Much better to perform glorious actions AND come back alive. Ignore the death cult stuff. The war against Islamic fundamentalism is going to be a long one. We need you to do your job at minimum risk to yourself and return alive – so that your skills are available for the next round.

· MR. ARAFAT His exit is becoming a boring soap opera called “The Long Goodbye”. Of course, the title evokes a black and white film thriller with Humphrey Bogart and Lauren Bacall, not with Mr. Arafat. We are now told he has liver failure. Who and under what circumstances said, “Just go”? We forget, but the exclamation is appropriate in this case.

· COTE D’IVORIE France has begun a limited evacuation of its nationals from the capital, after another day of anti-French rioting. Overall the French Government feels its citizens are safe and as yet no mass evacuation has been ordered. 700 additional French troops are in the process of reinforcing the 4,000 man French contingent.

1300 GMT November 7, 2004

[2nd Update]

· IRAQ MARTIAL LAW Iraq has declared martial law - some news agencies say "emergency", which in most cases means the same thing - for 60 days starting today. All areas of Iraq are covered except for the Kurds.

· An emergency should have been declared by the US the day major fighting in Baghdad ended. Can one conceive of occupying Germany or Japan in 1945 without emergency laws? And at that the situation was different: both countries had been destroyed by years of war, and the legitimate government had ordered surrender. So let's imagine Hitler in a Berlin jail, with family and close followers on the loose, with several billion dollars at their disposal, and with no future because they were on the wrong side, with the US using American standard civil liberties as the expectation. How long would the war have continued?

· We do, of course, understand the political problem the US would have had if it came as a liberator for democracy and then declared martial law. But would the problem have been worse than the one Iraq/US face today?

· FALLUJAH US Army says 2^nd Brigade, 1^st Cavalry Division has sealed off Fallujah following the declaration of a state of emergency.

· Our provisional orbat for US forces is correct - 4 brigades since a Marine regiment is equal to a brigade. Identified as present are 1^st Marine RCT and 2^nd Brigade, 1^st Cavalry Division. What we didn't know is that two Iraq Army brigades are also present. There are all sorts of reason not to have Iraq brigades, as opposed to battalions, at the scene, and there are all sorts of reasons they should be there.

· Two additional US brigades are in reserve.

· The latest figure for insurgents we see is 2,500 with 10,000 supposedly available from around the country. We don't see how this figure slipped into briefings or discussion. No insurgent is going to reinforce Fallujah once the fighting starts.

· COTE D'IVORIE Possibly as many as 10,000 demonstrators loyal to the President tried to seize the capital's airport, which is held by the French. They were beaten back. About 80 people were taken to hospital, the demonstrators allege 3 were killed when the French fired on the crowd.

· The demonstrators claim that France is partial to the rebels - something the President's supporters have been saying from the start, and is the reason for the anti-French violence. The President piously appealed for calm. We think its a good time for the French to "invite" him to "visit" France; the political difficulties are obvious.

· The total number of aircraft destroyed by the French is five: two Su-25s and three helicopters

0300 GMT November 7, 2004

· COTE D'IVORIE An Ivory Coast Su-25 bombed the positions of French peacekeepers killing 9 soldiers. The French retaliated by destroying the Ivory Coast's air force, which consisted of 5 or 7 aircraft including helicopters. France is reinforcing its 4,000 man contingent in the country, and 3 fighter aircraft have been flown to Gabon.

· When as ceasefire was brokered by the UN between the government and at least two rebel groups, an armed group loyal to the government several times created incidents that could have led to renewed fighting. Someone in the government seems to have gotten the bright idea of forcing the French peacekeeping force out.

· Though a UN force is taking over, the French are the only ones willing to aggressively use force. This is understandable, because the UN troops are permitted only to fire in self-defense. So getting the French out would be useful for the government if it, or any faction it, wants to get at the rebels without interference. We do seem to recall the government was not faring well before the French arrived to impose a ceasefire.

· Unlike the US in Iraq, the French are not vulnerable to the daily run of casualties the US is taking because they fairly much mind their own business as long as everyone is minding theirs. So we are not sure what this bombing was supposed to accomplish except get the French madder than hornets.

· MR. ARAFAT In the absence of news from any standard source - the French have said only Mr. Arafat's wife is permitted to comment on his condition - we relay a Debka.com report. Debka says Arafat is dead, though the ON switch has not been turned OFF, a decision only Mrs. Arafat can make. Paris is supposed to have told the PLO lot to kindly leave, taking Mr. Arafat's body with them, and further, Paris is said to have informed the US of the actual situation.

· FALLUJAH CNN carries a report from a reporter embedded with the US Marines at Fallujah saying a Kurd company commander from an Iraqi battalion is missing and may have taken notes during a briefing. He left his uniform and his gun behind, leading the Marines to believe he ay simply have decided to go home. The Marines say the missing man is not going to change their plans.

· Your editor does not want to be a crabby, suspicious, old person looking under every rock for a conspiracy. Nonetheless, why clear news like this before a major assault?

· INDIA, US, AND IRAQ We learn from India Abroad, a weekly published in the US, that India was not just willing to send troops to Iraq, it was okay for "a couple of divisions". All the Indians asked was they should be under UN, not American control. No point our going into the rigmarole of why this did not happen. Suffice it to say it appears the US could have had up to 40,000 troops anytime it cared to ask, with that one condition. We do recall a whole division had been warned for Iraq; apparently India was willing to do yet more.

0330 GMT November 6, 2004

· FALLUJAH Agencies say Fallujah has been surrounded by 10,000 troops. US Marine 1st RCT identified.

· AFP says 5 air strikes were launched yesterday. US is apparently now focusing on blowing up street barriers wired with explosives that have en built by the insurgents.

· Mr. Kofi Anann has given a letter to the US, UK, and Iraq, warning against an assault on Fallujah, and saying an atack could alienate some Iraqis.

· Personally, your editor has great respect for Mr. Anann, a person of great intelligence and dignity. We even understand why he has had to give such a letter, and we are sure it is against his better judgment. Nonetheless: so, an attack "may" alienate "some" Iraqis. Your editor is feeling so bad for those Iraqis he is sure he won't be able to sleep for three days.

· MR. ARAFAT Much as when he was alive and could not be gotten rid of, Mr. Arafat is dead and cannot be gotten rid of. Various sources say he is not yet dead, but the words "coma" and "between life and death" and "he may wake up or not wake up" are still appearing with regular frequency. Meantime a French military doctor says without elaboration that Mr. Arafat's condition is "stable". First time we've heard someone in a coma called stable, though insofar as he is nether dead nor alive, and was the same way yesterday, one dubiously supposes he could be considered stable.

· Debka says Mr. Arafat's life support will be turned off when his wife gives permission. We are not sure we should be quoting Debka any more after its latest series of mess-ups. We're starting to think there are two people who run Debka, with a bit of access to ex-military and intel types, and Debka simply does some clever extrapolating, plus add drama, to its stories.

· Israel has said Mr. Arafat cannot be buried in Jerusalem as was his wish. This holiest of sites is reserved for saints, not for terrorists, says Tel Aviv.

· COTE D'IVOIRE Agencies say government forces have again broken the ceasefire by making air attacks on rebel groups.

· INDIAN ARMY MOVES AGAINST MYANMAR-BASED REBELS In an operation that began a month ago, but revealed only now, Indian Army and security forces numbering 7500 are attacking 3 Myanmar-based insurgent groups. Yagon is cooperating; the Myanmar head of state has just made an official visit to Delhi. Your editor freely criticizes the Indian government's ad hoc approach to security. In the case of the decades old North East insurgencies, however, he is glad to say that Delhi is following a well-thought out, carefully planned, and patient long-term assault on insurgents. The fighting in Bhutan was Step I, now we are seeing Step II.

0430 GMT November 5, 2004

With the US election over, we can get back to work.

· FALLUJAH Still no indication of when the offensive will start. Reader Joseag234 tells us his local California TV station is reporting that half of Fallujah's population has fled. US military sources repeatedly say they intend to see the offensive through to the finish. Part of the delay may be the US is insisting that once action begins, it be given a free hand; there are clear dangers from President Allawi's view in writing a blank check. The US, however, is not taking chances of the usual stop-go-stop rules imposed on it by Baghdad, which in effect permits insurgents to get away or to reinforce.

· Reports speak of the Marines having seized 3 villages on the approaches to Fallujah, and of an air strike, artillery fire, and an AC-130 in action.

· GOODBYE, MR. ARAFAT Mr. Arafat slipped into a coma and has not come out of it. He is brain dead . Meanwhile, everyone seems to be splitting hairs - its not just the Americans who lie by twisting words. A whole lot of people says he is not dead. Okay, so he's not dead, and neither is a cabbage. But if you're waiting for the cabbage to get up and since the Marseilles or God Save the Queen or whatever, you'd be waiting in vain.

· Its time the Palestinians around Mr. Arafat stop fooling themselves by denying reality. Unless, of course, they are using the time to clean out Mr. Arafat's safety deposit boxes: that's a good reason to deny the man is dead. Mr. Arafat's supporters should console themselves with the thought that their man had more lives than nine cats. In the end, no one could kill him, but one cannot fight Charon once the Boatman comes across the Styx.

· We are not supposed to think ill of the dead. Even President Bush is supposed to have muttered a "God bless his soul" when informed. Your editor does not quite understand this attitude. Mr. Arafat was greedy, corrupt, power mad and ruthless. He exploited his people as badly as a  brutal foreign conqueror might have done. His people bore untold suffering because of him. Your editor is not blessing Mr. Arafat's soul because it's unlikely he had one.

· And no doubt the ultimate survivor, Mr. Castro, is watching his clock. Mr. Castro went wrong in following communism and in denying his people freedom. But he is a genuine hero who staged a remarkable revolution against oppression. We'll think about blessing his soul when the day comes, but we doubt he'd want anyone to do that.

· WMD Reader Mike Thompson tells us of a Washington Times article in which a civilian US armed forces official says that the missing RDX, HMX etc was removed by the Russians before the start of Gulf II, and that they also moved stocks of WMD into Syria. Now, in all fairness to Debka.com, of whom we have been making fun of late, has been saying for a year and a half that Saddam did have WMD, but they had been transferred to Syria. we don't recall Debka bringing the Russians into the story, though.

· GULF I AND SARIN Debka quotes UK sources as saying Gulf War Syndrome is real and was caused by constant low-level exposure to Sarin. What we cannot understand how the Coalition failed to detect any such nerve gas being used against it during Gulf I.

· CHINA UNREST The Washington Post says that civil unrest in PRC is rising because the state refuses to permit people to express their grievances in legitimate fashion. It goes on to discuss several major recent unrest where tens of thousands of people were involved. While some in the PRC leadership have called for genuine democratic reform, Beijing is more focused on suppressing protests against corruption and misuse of government power than in solving the problem. Because of the internet, the PRC has little control over news/images spreading rapidly around the country. In one situation where ethnic groups clashed in Chongging Province, one side used the internet to call for help and thousands of people from around the region poured into the affected area.

· Beijing has also been using divide and conquer tactics Its security forces go after leaders very harshly, but after the leaders are rounded up one, Beijing offers sops to the locals to stop their agitation.

· We suggest readers keep a close watch on reports about unrest in China. This seems to be growing into a state-threatening phenomenon. A country as big as China cannot be controlled entirely by force; if you pour in thousands or tens of thousands of security forces to quell endemic unrest, the government troops start defecting at some stage. China has been kept quiet through fear and ignorance, but the internet and growing prosperity is negating traditional methods of control.

· Personally, your editor thinks the leadership's idea that people will be so busy making money they wont bother agitating is quite confused. Democracy and market economies go hand in hand, if nothing else, to make money efficiently you need a transparent government. Once people get hooked on making money, and on spending money, they start wanting choices in every aspect of their life - that includes the political.

· UK BLACK WATCH It seems the Black Watch's apprehension at being linked too closely with the Americans has proven well founded. Apparently they have been under mortar and other fire since they day they arrived, and now a suicide bomber/vehicle has killed 3 soldiers with 9 injured. We hate to say it, because while we may not be fond of the British, we greatly admire their armed forces: British troops have to understand there is a real war on, and one that is not being waged on their terms. The way to survive here is to kill the insurgents before they kill you. R and R is over, folks. Time to get down to work, and we are sure you will do an excellent job.

· MISSING EXPLOSIVES Just when we were thinking this story was over, we learn it isn't over. MSNBC says that a dozen US soldiers were left on guard at the giant ammunition dump from which the RDX etc. is missing. They say that they could do nothing while Iraqis daily looted the place. They cannot say for a fact that it was looters who took the explosives of concern, but some recall bags marked "hexamine" being taken. And - hope you got this, Mr. Rumsfeld - the soldiers say at one point there were 100 vehicles lined up to carry away the loot. Okay, Sir, what was your surveillance and sensors and so doing while this happened? Yes, yes, we know Iraq is as big as California and so on, but apparently the soldiers kept sending messages to Baghdad about the looting and got no reply.

· Now, personally we are not about to make anything of this. It is all Monday morning quarterbacking. A tiny outpost keeps sending messages to HQ: "Looters are everywhere" and they get no response. so what's the big deal? Looters were all over Iraq, there were more important things to worry about. what could be more important than 400 tons of very dangerous explosives? well, as a start 1-million tons of dangerous explosives.

· What we fail to understand is why US troops were not instructed to shoot looters on sight. A lot of trouble would have been averted. And it's not as if the US military is so delicate it cannot bring itself to shoot on sight. Its done so in Haiti. Come on, Pentagon, get your act together. Nothing encourages an out-of-control lot to obey the law as the sight of a few dozen of their friends shot dead.

1500 GMT November 3, 2004

[3^rd Update]

· US ELECTION Readers will know the US Electoral College vote hangs on Ohio with its 20 votes. Mr. Bush has, of course, won the popular vote by a clear margin, but it is the electoral vote that counts. The popular vote is nonetheless reflected in the gains made by the already dominant Republicans in the Senate and the House, because these seats, as is the case for other elected offices, is decided by majority vote

· Provisional ballots were introduced in 2002 to avoid a 2000 repeat. If a voter’s name is not on the rolls for her precinct where she is registered, she can file a provisional vote. After verification she is indeed registered but due to a glitch her name was not on the precinct roll, her vote is counted. Else it is rejected. This process, understandably, takes time.

· The editor’s youngest had to cast a provisional ballot in his first ever opportunity to vote after coming of age. Fortunately, he had proper identification plus a letter from the authorities saying they had been informed by a government agency that he had registered.

· Provisional ballots need not be counted. Presuming that your editor’s boy cast his vote for an independent candidate, as he is registered as an Independent, his vote for his candidate will not be counted. No independent had any chance of winning anyway.

· We explain this for the benefit of our overseas readers who might wonder what the fuss about the provisional ballots in Ohio. In theory, the provisional ballots, if all have been cast for Mr. Kerry, could give him Ohio. Now, this is unlikely to happen because many provisional ballots will have been cast for Mr. Bush, and many others will be ruled as improperly cast. But it could theoretically happen, which is why Mr. Kerry is pushing the issue.

· There is another problem. In some of the precincts that voted for Mr. Kerry, the old punch card system is still used. So a recount could show that some ballots counted by hand that were rejected or counted as not for Mr. Kerry could be given to him. The process of verifying each ballot by hand can take several days. But the process can cut both ways: Mr. Bush would also gain votes, as every contested card cannot be for Mr. Kerry.

· Legal challenges could extend the uncertainty. The Democrats would be taking a big risk, however. If they still lose Ohio, they will be in trouble with Mrs. Jane Q Public, because the process is by its nature contentious and mean-spirited, and Americans are fed up after Florida 2000.

· That vote fiasco made America a bit of a laughing stock worldwide. The truth of the matter is, however, that given the size of the vote – second largest in the world – it is astonishing the extent to which the Americans go to ensure that every vote is counted properly.

· Usually imperfections in the vote process do not affect the outcome because the vote is clearly in one candidate’s favor and no amount of recounts is going to change that. These flaws are normal worldwide. And there is no moral law that permits a voter to say: “I’m stupid or uneducated, I thought I was voting for Mr. Kerry even though my card shows I voted for Mr. Bush”. The punch card system is actually quite accurate, and democracy presupposes a duty on the voter’s part to educate herself on the machine’s use. There is plenty of help available at each station in case anyone is confused.

· In general, our non-American readers should note that Mr. Bush has won the popular vote because “moral values” do matter to the majority of Americans. Had a less controversial person stood in place of Mr. Bush, using the same simple “moral values” appeal, he would have won hands down. Foreigners think America is the west and east coasts. Your editor has to explain to Americans in the Washington area that this is not so. The majority of Americans are pious and socially conservatives. They have had it with the “morals values are relative” approach of secular people, and they voted for Mr. Bush.

· Fareed Zakaria, the Newsweek editor who is South Asian, had is absolutely right when on ABC-TV he noted that when it comes to religion, Americans are right there with Saudi Arabia. This scares the daylights out of the Europeans, who tend to be secular. Mr. Bush really, really frightens Europeans and the elites of the 3^rd world when he uses a moral values framework through which to view the world. But lets not blame Mr. Bush: he merely espouses the values of most Americans.

· As for should we worry about what American values, keep this in mind. America is a huge conglomeration of peoples from every part of the globe. So is it that most of the world actually believes in moral values or is it that moral values people tend to migrate to America?

· And if one wants to be really frightened, what if the majority of America is right, that really truly, God, patriotism, modesty, chastity, fidelity, etc etc is what matters? What if secularists (your editor is a secular pantheist) are simply wrong in saying: I have my moral values, you have yours, and lets leave it at that, because this process becomes a race for the bottom to the point there are no values? Can civilization still continue?

· Your editor has no answers. Nonetheless, the world has to get used to the idea that America is a religious country. And the fight against the “terrorists” is a true crusade, not against Islam itself, but against its fundamentalists. Americans may be socially conservative, but they are still tolerant of different beliefs – there would be no America otherwise. There are few fundamentalists in the sense of Islamic fundamentalists. And also nonetheless, it is becoming ever clearer Islamist fundamentalists are only use the guise of religion to force the world into their vision of correctness, one that would bring us all back to the values of the medieval world. And they reason they want this is they cannot compete in the modern world, so they want the world to change so that they would be the honchos. Talk about losers.

0745 GMT November 3, 2004

· FALLUJAH Reader Mike Thompson writes he picked this up from the New Republic website: “Frequent NR writer Tom Smith tells me: Marine Corps and Air Force aircraft are pummeling insurgent positions in Fallujah, and I just received a press release stating, the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force 'will continue to conduct operations and will not cease until Fallujah is free of foreign terrorists and insurgents.'"

0215 GMT November 3, 2004

· US ELECTION The election has preempted all real news and we do not want to bore our readers with unimportant things just to fill space.

· One aspect is good for our non-US friends to examine. Many non-Americans and many Americans – get upset because the US is not a direct democracy. Let the majority prevail, what could be fairer than that?

· The thing is, those Founding Fathers had an uncanny understanding of the future. Majority rule is also tyrannical rule. The Fathers were careful to balance the needs of the majority with the needs of the minority. That is why the US has remained united, with the exception of the Civil War. If you will look at the red-blue electoral maps, you will be amazed of how wide the red (Republican) area is. To let New York and California decide how the rest of the country must live because these states together have a population much greater than most of the red states aggregated, would mean disaster. Look at what has happened in so much of the world because it follows the majority rule and the minorities won’t accept that. Think about it – and certainly those Americans who want to change to majority rule need to think about it. Its going to get terribly lonely for the US North East, New York, Florida, California and a few other states if they rule by majority and the minority doesn’t accept it.

1245 GMT November 2, 2004

· FALLUJAH BBC says residents are fleeing Fallujah; one report speaks of a 400 vehicle jam-up.

· DAFUR AFP reports that the Sudanese Army suddenly surrounded several refugee camps at 0300 Sudan time. Aid agencies have pulled out their workers from the camps. No information on why the army acted.

· US ARMY TOUR EXTENSION  2nd Brigade, 1st Cavalry Division and a brigade from 1st Infantry Division have had their tours extended to keep experienced troops in Iraq. The units were on a 10-month deployment and the extension will not violate Pentagon policy of 12-months tours for most units.

· It is safe to assume the two brigades are at Fallujah or preparing to go there.

· A reader sent in an article a few days ago saying the Black Watch were angry at having their tour extended because of their deployment to the Baghdad area, which freed American troops to move to Fallujah. The British troops were also nervous, for which no one can blame them.  The Americans are always patrolling aggressively to draw fire; the British approach, which was fine for Basra but would not have worked in Baghdad or the Sunni Triangle, is to keep a low profile. Orbat.com feels that with any luck, the Black Watch will get into some fighting, which will improve their morale. A seemingly odd thing about combat soldiers is it's the waiting and not knowing that's the hard part, fighting comes as a relief.

0230 GMT November 2, 2004

· RETURN Here we are, back again, with seemingly nothing worth reporting. About a month's work missing, but at least your editor is functional. Attempt 1 to revive the old machine's HDD failed; attempt 2 is tomorrow.

· FALLUJAH No news to report.

· ARAFAT His aides at he French military hospital differ as to whether he is fast returning to normal or on the verge of death. First reports on tests run will be available Wednesday or Thursday.

0330 GMT November 1, 2004

· DISASTER Your editor arrived home from the gym, the only place for which he leaves his desk these days, to find his computer smashed. The lady responsible has not the slightest remorse, intends to leave for good on schedule tomorrow AM. After your editor made her a quick dinner, she logged him on to her computer – which has no mouse – so he could make a short update. The lady, meanwhile, is sleeping the sleep of the just.

· DEBKA LOSES IT Reader Mike Thompson draws our attention to Debka.com of today. Debka’s counter-terrors tell it that Bin Laden was spotted by the Indian Air Force on the Ladakh-Tibet border, where the Pakistan, India, and China borders meet. Indian forces went on red alert, says Debka.

· Readers will forgive your editor for keeping this brief: he can barely see the screen as this computer is not adjusted for his old eyes.

· The part of the region Debka refers to is where the valleys are at 4000 meters and the mountains at 6000 and up. Winter has closed in. There are no roads as such, just tracks barely passable in the summer. For Mr. Bin Laden to be seen by the Indian Air Force, he would have to be on the Indian side of the line of control; to get there, he would have had to cross some of the worst terrain in the world on foot with his party. Even seasoned mountaineers don’t make it a habit to trek around there, particularly not in the winter: you just cannot survive, a middle aged man has absolutely no chance at those altitudes, temperatures, winds, climbs and descents. You have to cross glaciers, among other things.

· No IAF helicopter would have seen them because Bin Laden and Co would not be alive after one day in the terrain. By the way, in the Kargil war of 1999, the Pakistan’s had a few jihadis arrive. They had to be put to hauling loads at lower altitudes.

· So here we have a situation where Mr. Bin Laden is sighted in terrain where even the crack mountain troops of India and Pakistan barely make it through the winter if at all they are manning their piquets in the first place. An IAF helicopter swings by. “What ho!” says the pilot to his copilot, “there’s old Bin Laden taking an after lunch stroll down the Nubra Valley Road –“ or which ever of three roads he might be on. “Must tell HQ, Sir,” says the co-pilot. “Jolly good, contact Brigade,” says the pilot as he waves to Bin Laden and party. “Jolly rude of the blighters to trip lightly over mountains and passes at 6-7,000 meters and just walk into India, without an invitation, Sir,” says the copilot. “True,” says the pilot, circling around the party, “but think: no one walks over from Pakistan even during the summer, and here it is October, this is a miracle…oh wait, that’s not Bin Laden, that’s the Yeti and his family dressed up like Bin Laden…dash it, is it Halloween already?” “What’s Halloween, Sir,” asks the copilot. But it’s too late: the Indian forces have gone on red alert.