0001 GMT March 31, 2004
Orbat.com invites readers to pick what they like from the Pakistan news on the Wana operation. It has ended/not ended; the man said to be Al Qaeda is now said to be a minor courier or communication specialist, and it was the western new agencies who said it might be Abdullah of Al Qaeda, not the Pakistan government; no important terrorists were present/important terrorists escaped east into Pakistan; the Pakistan Government did/did not take the local tribal administrations into confidence; the two government officials being held by the renegades were released/murdered by their captors, this list goes on.
Our South Asia editor, Mandeep Bajwa, sends your editor a restrained reprimand. Your editor appreciates the respect these young whippersnappers have for his white hairs, and his ears are burning: he apparently misunderstood what had been told to him about the class composition of Pakistani infantry battalions:
BBC and other agencies say Tashkent police fought and killed 20 militants; 3 suicide bombers blew themselves up, in one case taking some police with them. In the UK, police arrested 8 men and impounded half-a-ton of ammonium nitrate, the same fertilizer used in the Oklahoma City and Sudan bombings. Like it or not, the world is at war. We can blame the US for stirring the hornet's nest by counterattacking after 9/11 instead of appeasing the terrorists, but that war was started by the other side, and it would have been even worse had the US sought - like some European states - to appease. This said, Americans should be aware that is the rare European who truly does not understand the Islamic threat. The Europeans are personally angry with the way President Bush went about things, but have no problem recognizing the need for the West to stand shoulder-to-shoulder to meet the threat.
Forwarded to us by Eric Brindle, from
Strategypage.com makes an interesting point: "The tribes have historically been quite hostile to foreigners. The Pakistani government has convinced thousands of tribesmen to help them track up to 500 armed foreigners (al Qaeda) hiding in the hills along hundreds of kilometers of the Afghan border. Some Americans have been seen with the Pakistani troops, and tribesmen. These are apparently CIA or Special Forces personnel, and there to supply intelligence information (from satellites and UAVs overhead) and cash to encourage the cooperation of the tribes. Efforts to persuade the tribes to turn against the Taliban and al Qaeda have generally worked, with six of the seven tribal confederations in the region agreeing to work with the government..."
0030 GMT March 30, 2004
Your editor at present is feeling quite out-of-sorts with the Pakistanis: he had high hopes for the Wana operation, and devoted considerable space and effort to th e story, but it seems we are all back as usual with Alice in Wonderland. Somehow most Pakistan stories these days end like that - a point raised as the Wana operation started, by reader Rahul Narang [check Letters to the Editor].
Jang of Pakistan quotes the official defense spokesperson as saying the Al Qaeda spy chief, Abdullah, has been killed. Impressive achievement, except the Western intelligence agencies say they have heard of no such person. Let us be charitable to the official spokesperson and note the Muslim extremists are often known by multiple names. Also, it is possible that the western agencies don't know everything about Al Qaeda.
Jang also says the Pakistanis have declared the Wana operation over and a success. 63 fighters have been killed, a figure the spokesperson says is obtained from signal intercepts and interrogation of prisoners, 110+ have been captured [after subtracting 50 odd who have been freed after interrogation], a major quantity of arms has been seized, and a major terrorist base has been destroyed. The prisoners are to be treated as criminals, and not as POWs, and presumably will be tried in civil court.
This also is impressive, except last we heard the Pakistan Army was wanting all foreigners and the 5 renegade tribal leaders handed over, failing which on Saturday the army would mount a final offensive. Of a sudden, there is no final offensive, the mission has been declared a success, and the troops are withdrawing to their bases. Your editor has been watching a play with bated breath, but the actors seem to have gotten bored and gone home right at the climax.
BBC reports a failed coup attempt in the Congo. The men involved were part of a militia group that agreed to the ceasefire, but was upset that more of its men had not been enlisted in the Congo forces.
BBC says the 13 British spelunkers who were arrested in Mexico are being sent home, but it may be they are being expelled. We did not follow this story because it seemed, at first, to have no significance: six British spelunkers on a tourist holiday [cavers in Britain] are trapped on a Mexican cave because of rising water. Not of interest to Orbat.com. Then it turns out that the six are part of a combined ex-servicepersons and service group. Still nothing wrong, this group takes spelunking tours around the globe, and why should the services have an adventure club - most services have these, in India they are primarily mountain climbers. The military connection is apparently overlooked on visa applications. Again, nothing sinister here, anyone can make a mistake.
The Mexicans accuse the men of looking for uranium, which makes no sense because any foreign company working with a Mexican company can get a license to explore for minerals. The British mumble about incompetent Mexican bureaucrats, which also makes no sense. Given the circumstances, the men are lucky to be going home so soon. Had they pulled this stunt in India, they would have been guests of the civil prison system for anywhere between 2 and 10 years - that's not the sentence, that's the time the Indians would take to investigate, and naturally since the first thing any sensible person would do is flee India, they would not get bail.
0330 GMT March 29, 2004
The Wana standoff continues with no outsider [including us] having the slightest clue as to what is happening. Jang says the Frontier Corps captives has been released, and no one seems to agree on if there were 11 or 12 - that's how confusing the situation is. The Pakistan Army has pulled back from at least one village, and has said it will revoke its decision to demolish certain houses and shops of the wanted tribals. Meanwhile, residents are straggling back into the area now that firing has stopped.
Jang reports that the Masud tribe held a jirga and has out 3,000 tribal militia at the Pakistan Government's disposal. It has asked - and apparently Pakistan has agreed, because that is the way of the Frontier that the Pakistan Army not be sent into their area. They want the government to tell them who it wants, and the Masuds will hunt down the target, as they have been doing in the case of the convoy ambush that killed at least 20 soldiers. Readers may recall that the South Waziri tribes had also asked to be allowed to resolve the matter of the foreign militants itself, and it was only when the South Waziri leaders began to come back with excuses and ask for more time that the Pakistan government moved in.
Pravda quotes a UN official to say 1-million people are cut off from relief efforts by the fighting in Dafur Province, Sudan, and warns the biggest humanitarian crisis of today is in the making.
Pravda also says hearings have begun in a criminal case involving the sinking of K-159 last year. The hearings are being held on board a Russian Navy cruiser. Prosecution witnesses include the sole survivor of the Kursk tragedy. The hull has been towed to a scrapping yard and the nuclear reactor has been put in safe storage. It is said there are no weapons aboard to be disposed of, which is a bit odd.
CNN says NASA's X-43 scramjet mission was completely successful, having achieved Mach 7 after a 10 second flight. The unmanned aircraft was launched from a rocket, which itself was carried by a B-52. The bomber acted as the launch vehicle, and the rocket propelled the scramjet aircraft to the speed needed for the scramjet to start functioning. The X-43 then spent 10 minutes performing maneuvers designed to its aerodynamic handling before it was recovered. CNN says it will likely be 2025 before manned scramjet missions become feasible. The technology has obvious civilian applications, but Orbat.com readers will be more interested in the military missions. Two scramjet concepts are under development: one will send an unmanned bomber anywhere in the globe within two hours, with a 1-ton payload. A manned version will fly slower, but will have a 10-ton bombload.
0330 GMT March 28, 2004
AFP reports that lawyer Jacques Verges is to defend Saddam. He has previously defended Klaus Barbie, the Gestapo chief tried in the 1980s, and Carlos the "Jackal". He currently represents Tariq Aziz.
President Musharraf of Pakistan tells ABC News that he will get rid of Al Qaeda in Pakistan. We hate to be spoilsports, but wasnt the good President just recently denying any Al Qaeda were sheltering Pakistan.
Meanwhile, Jang of Pakistan reports that the tribal leaders who met the renegades in the Wana area have managed to secure the release of the 12 Frontier Corps prisoners and two administrators: the men are to be set free at noon today, Pakistan time. There is no word on what the Pakistan Army plans to do.
CNN reports with reference to the Fallujah fighting that US I MEF issued a statement that it was “conducting offensive operations ... to foster a secure and stable environment for the people.” It went on to say that “some have chosen to fight. Having elected their fate, they are being engaged and destroyed.”" We are pleased that in a conflict singularly devoid of memorable lines the US Marines are at least trying. The words uttered by a US SF soldier when he got Saddam out of his hole - "President Bush sends his compliments" - have to be rated exceptionally lame.
US agencies say Saddam was turned in by his most trusted bodyguard. The bodyguard was arrested during a sweep and quickly persuaded to talk. The US maintains that since he did not volunteer information, he is ineligible for the $25 million reward. Now, while we can accept that the Iraq occupation authority will do its best to save the US Treasury the money, the above would be exactly the sort of story concoctted to protect a bodyguard who saw the possibility of becoming rich...
Pravda reports that the commander of the Alia Battalion of the IDF was wounded recently. This battalion, Pravda says, consists of 1000 ex-Soviet officers and men - not all Jews - most with SF training and operational experience in Afghanistan and Chechnya. It is assigned to provide settlement security. The battalion is said to be famous for its snipers.
0400 GMT March 27, 2004
Renegade Wana Tribals Execute Pakistan Army Prisoners
There seems to be no end to the crimes Al Qaeda and the Taliban commit. Jang of Pakistan reports that tribal fighters from the pro-Government Masud tribe, who have been hunting those responsible for ambushing a Pakistan Army convoy on March 22, found 8 bodies of soldiers missing in the ambush. [12 were killed on the scene.] The bodies have been mutilated, but whether this was before or after the soldiers were executed is not known. The US had better come up with some quick thoughts on the issue of Taliban/Al Qaeda prisoners for interrogation, because its unlikely to have any at the rate things are going. To begin with, the Pakistan Army is not known for its gentle treatment of prisoners not covered by the Geneva Convention. As for the renegade Waziris, they have signed their own death warrants.
Agencies say an Israeli official has returned after 3 days in Washington. He has failed to get the US to recognize the right of 230,000 Israeli settlers to stay in the West Bank in return for a Gaza pullout; nor has the US agreed that the Palestinians should have no right of return.
Haaretz of Israel says that Israeli security officials believe Hamas is already operating at its maximum capacity; as such Hamas' threats after Sheikh Yassin was killed by the Israelis are meaningless.
Times of India reports that the Indian Army lost over 100 men while laying 1-million+ mines in 2002 during the showdown with Pakistan; altogether over 800 soldiers lost their lives in the mobilization and stand-off. Times of India also says that the Army reports only four infiltration attempts from the Pakistani side in the last two months, and that it is racing to complete border fencing by May 1.
News of the Absurd The Times of India reports that a "fast track" court in Gujarat State has sentenced 4 Pakistanis to death for smuggling into India 24 kg of RDX and several weapons including 51 pistols. The court acquitted 23 people arrested for helping the intruders, saying the government had not made its case. All very impressive -except the incident occurred in the spring of 1999. Which leads us to ask a philosophical question: how fast is fast?
BBC says South Africa denies Mr. Aristide of Haiti is to get asylum - no request has been made, the South Africans say. Meanwhile, there is no clarification on his status in Jamaica: the government there says he will depart for South Africa.
Agencies say 2000 US Marines are enroute to Afghanistan. Orbat.com notes that the US garrisons in that country have already been reinforced to an unknown extent, including possibly 1000 SF personnel.
CNN says US marines fought a battle with resistants in Fallujah. One US MArine and at least 4-5 insurgents were killed. Afterward the Marines resumed patrolling the city on foot. It may be that the reappearance of US forces in Falluja provoked the insurgents to attack. For several month they have had a free run,, but the Marines have pledged they will reassert control of the region.
Agencies say Sri Lanka's LTTE rebel group has ordered the assassination of the head of the breakaway faction. Karuna, as the leader of the 5,000 faction is called, had said he took the decision to leave the LTTE because his men provided the bulk of the fighters but were not shown the recognition due them. The decision for assassination was pout on the LTTE's website.
0230 GMT March 26, 2004
Wana Impasse Continues
Jang of Pakistan says negotiations being conducted by tribal chiefs between the Pakistan Army and renegade tribesmen are at an impasse. The Army demand surrender of the five most wanted tribals and the handover of all foreign fighters. The renegades want the Army to withdraw, assure their safety, pay compensation for damage caused in the fighting and for the punitive measures imposed on tribals, and then they will see about negotiating. The renegade terms seem to Orbat.com to be deliberately set so as to be quite unacceptable, whereas in our opinion the Army's terms are quite conciliatory. It is asking only for the ringleaders and the foreigners, who are illegally in Pakistan and now guilt of waging war against the state.
Meanwhile, Jang says that the Masud tribe has undertaken to assure the safety of roads into the are, and convoys of reinforcements and supplies are making their way to Wana. The Jang correspondent seems surprised at the large number of Frontier Corps units arriving. We think the surprise may be because many people had convinced themselves a general tribal revolt was about to explode. The South Waziri subtribe involved in sheltering the foreigners and fighting the Pakistan Army is, however, just one of scores of tribes, and for Orbat.com its difficult to see - admittedly we are uninformed outsiders - that any significant section of the tribes agrees with it. This subtribe's actions have brought nothing but trouble and punishment.
Orbat.com readers unaware of the ethnic makeup of the Pakistan Army may find the following of interest. The Pakistan Army's infantry - the bulk of its strength - is formed in five regiments: Punjab, Frontier Force, Baluch, Sind, and the Northern Light Infantry. This last is recruited from the North Kashmir tribes and they have no affinity with the frontier tribes, moreover, as Pakistani regiments go, the NLI is small. The Frontier Force, Baluch, and Sind regiments are that in name only: typically, an FF battalion has only two companies out of four recruited from the NWFP; the Baluch battalions have just one company of Baluch tribals, and whatever Sind residents are in the Sind regiments, they are largely Punjabis who have settled in the Sind. The Punjabis remain firmly in control as they have for the last 57 years. Moreover, options for those Frontier Force men that may be unhappy at their Army's actions in Wana are strictly limited. In the Army they have respect, good pay, good food, and excellent facilities for their children and wives - medical, educational etc. Life on the frontier, on the other hand, is hard and economic opportunities - bar those created by the Government, are few.
Haaretz of Israel reports the Israeli Army has begun issue of micro UAVs to field units. One weighs 1.5 kg, the other twice that; both have an endurance of one hour; the smaller has a 5-km range and the bigger, twice that. Very interesting are two UAVs in development, one weighing a quarter kg - a bit more than a soda can - and the other half kg. The smaller one has undertaken several developmental 40 minute flights. US agencies including DARPA have far more advanced systems in test and development, but clearly the Israeli needs are immediate and they have attained the lead in deployment of micro UAVs. These handy machines are already deployed by the Israelis at platoon and squad [section] level, but we are now almost at the point that each individual soldier can carry one.
Hamas says it now feels free to target Mr. Sharon and senior Israeli rabbis.
Orbat.com comment In the case of Mr. Sharon we feel Hamas is indulging in wishful thinking: had it any capability it would have struck years ago. Surely Hamas cannot argue it has been restrained in limiting its killing to ordinary soldiers, civilians, women, children and babies. As for the rabbis, we do know some are quite fanatical. But are there any senior rabbis who daily call for the elimination of the Muslims and head movements that randomly target civilians in an attempt to use terror as a tool of political policy? By saying this we hold no brief for the Israelis. Rather, we are saying Hamas's habit of indulging in ever ratcheting rhetoric again serves only to demonstrate its weakness. We do not understand all the implications of the unilateral disengagement policy. Nonetheless, it seems to us the economic benefits Israel enjoys using cheap Palestine labor is by now far outweighed by the security downside. No one can stop the Israelis from building a fence to keep Palestinians out and from shooting anyone who tries to cross. No one can force the Israelis to take responsibility for the occupied territories if Israel does not want to stay there. Mr. Sharon has unleashed what is likely to be only the first act in a long and violent drama: events will not be in his control anymore than they will in Hamas's. On balance, however, we feel time is against Hamas. The US agenda for Syrian regime change has come unglued thanks to the mess ups in Iraq. But the US is slowly succeeding - despite what the US press says, and its only a matter of time. Once Syria is sorted out, Lebanon cannot support Hamas. Comments welcome, and we hope some informed Arabs will take us seriously enough to give their opinions. We promise to print all, editing only for language.
Haartez also says that Israel is backtracking somewhat on its threat to kill Mr. Arafat. Meanwhile, 60 prominent Palestinians have called for and end to violence and for the use of peaceful struggle.
Orbat.com comment India won its independence without waging war on the British in India. Yes, it took three decades. But violence has not served the Palestinians 37 years on. Moreover, in today's media saturated environment, India would have won its independence in 3-5 years: the sight of police severely beating peaceful demonstrators - and sometimes shooting them - would have revolted the world, more important, the British public. We urge the Palestinian people to reconsider. Violence is a failed policy. The Jews saw 6 million of their brethren die because they were habituated to non-resistance. Do the Arabs honestly think the Jews will be intimidated by the loss of 5, ten, twenty people a day? If the existence of the Israeli people is threatened to the point of extinction, the Israelis will make sure before they die that as much as possible of the Arab world will die with them. What we are saying has nothing to do with the rights and wrongs of the establishment of the state of Israel. We are saying to our Palestinian friends: simple military strategy says if one way has not worked for 37 years, its best to consider an alternative.
0230 GMT March 25, 2004
South Waziristan Standoff Continues
Jang of Pakistan, BBC, AFP and other agencies report the South Waziristan stand-off continues into the 9th day. The Pakistan army had given midnight GMT for the renegade tribals to give up the 14 captured Frontier Corps men and civil administrators they have been holding, but there is no indication what the Army plans to do if the deadline is not observed. Tribal elders continue to try and negotiate.
Artillery fire was again reported Wednesday night local time. One source says the Pakistan Army is concerned not just that the renegades may be trying to buy time to reinforce their positions, but the Army itself will have difficulties in reinforcing and resupply its positions after the ambush that killed 13 soldiers. Meanwhile, tribal elders have decided the homes of some of the renegades responsible for the ambush are to be destroyed.
Sources tell the news agencies that a "conservative" figure for government casualties is 60 troops and FC men KIA, 45 WIA, and 14-18 MIA. Only 11 renegades/foreign militants have been positively counted as killed.
The Pakistan Army continues to search house to house within its cordoned area. At least in one case far from being intimidated, the renegades issued threats via radio to the FC men who searched a particular house.
Motorcycles have been banned in the area to hamper suicide attacks and ambushes, and locals are seizing the chance to flee: rentals for pickup trucks have gone up 6 times in price.
The press has been banned from the area.
The US Census Bureau says world population will peak at 9.1 billion in 2050 before starting a fall. The population was 6.2 billion in 2000. Fertility rates have falling between 1990 and 2000 from 3.3 births per woman to 2.6, slightly above replacement level.
BBC says Mr. Tony Blair will offer Libya military assistance when he visits Tripoli.
US agencies say gasoline prices now average $1.74 across the US, the highest on record, and no one sees an early solution. OPEC has cut output, and oil company stocks are low: the companies are not buying more oil because they fear a slump in the summer will lead to losses. Meanwhile, US companies need to invest $200 billion annually in oil exploration over the next 10 years to meet demand, which is going to be strong given the economic growth of China and India. Instead, they are investing only $160 billion.
Orbat.com readers might be interested in two unrelated facts. One, in inflation adjusted money, US oil prices are not much about the level of 70 years ago, and of course, the prices are ridiculously low compared to most of the world. Two, economists say that so far President Bush's tax cuts have kept the economy growing despite the increasing energy prices, but by the summer, US growth will stall unless energy prices come down. This puts President Bush, already under heavy criticism for the "jobless recovery" in a difficult position - elections are coming in November.
Washington Post reports Hamas denies it will target US interests - maybe its leaders are becoming a bit more sensible.
Agencies say Iraq's main oil pipeline is damaged in an explosion; enemy action is not suspected.
AFP reports the Nepal military says it killed 50 Maoist rebels in an air attack. Meanwhile, the rebels deny official figures of 500 killed in recent fighting, saying they have lost only 40 fighters.
0300 GMT March 24, 2004
Jang of Pakistan and agencies report that at 2200 PST [1630 GMT] Monday the Pakistan Army renewed its attack on the Wana villages under siege. The tribal negotiators have told the renegades they must hand over foreigners and surrender, and presumably have left the area having achieved nothing because of the renegades intransigence.
It remains unclear how many renegades are left: a sizeable number, apparently, but now Pakistan has dampened speculation that the important target is still in the area.
Meanwhile, tribal militia arrested three persons in connection with the attack on a Pakistan Army convoy and are hunting for more persons. Several tribes have expressed support, saying the Pakistan Army has brought roads, jobs and development to this long-neglected area and the renegades only want to split the tribals and the Army.
Washington Post reports that Ayatollah Sistani is now threatening to break off contacts with UN negotiators if he doesn't have his way with Iraq's new government and constitution. Its already clear his way is unacceptable to many Shias, the Sunnis, and the Kurds. We wonder if it occurs to him he is not in a Baghdad bazaar: he cannot keep making deals and then going back on them to try and get more concessions. Moreover, he is assuring the split up of Iraq - perhaps this is what he wants.
Haaretz of Israel and other agencies say a Hamas successor to Sheikh Yassin has been appointed. Israel has made clear it has decided to target the entire Hamas leadership. Further, the army chief has said that Mr. Arafat and the head of Hezbollah know their time has come.
In a brilliant move, Hamas says Sheikh Yassin's death is also the responsibility of the United States, because it supports Israel and did not stop Israel. Americans are to be targeted says Hamas. So now instead of an enemy the size of a fox terrier, no matter how determined the fox terrier may be, Hamas has also made an enemy of an intelligent, vicious Doberman who has a proven track record of eliminating leaders and movements and nations it doesn't like. Hamas' decision is going to hammer the Palestine people with yet another hammer - a very big one this time. Of course, no one has ever given a moment to worrying themselves about the Palestinians - particularly not the Arab states or Hamas.
0230 GMT March 23, 2004
Haartez of Israel says that Israel has gone on high alert following its assassination of the founder and spiritual leader of Hamas, Sheikh Yassin. Six Israelis were wounded by attackers in two separate incidents in the Tel Aviv area, and 5 Palestinians have been killed in anti-Israel demonstrations in the Gaza area. Israel has barred journalists holding dual Israeli-foreign nationality from entering Gaza. Israelis are forbidden to enter. The Government says it does not want its dual nationals to become targets; the journalists reject this explanation and say they do not seek the protection of the Israeli Army.
Meanwhile, there is worldwide condemnation of Israel's killing of Sheikh Yassin, including an expression of unhappiness from the US. We are not entirely clear why. We at Orbat.com are agnostic on the Palestine-Israel issue: there are times it seems to us one side or the other has the moral advantage; at other times we feel both sides are wrong. Regardless of what we think, however, Israel and Palestine are at war, and the Sheikh was one of the enemy's senior most commanders. A commander is a legitimate target. The US is actively trying to kill Osama, and we don't see anyone getting upset about that. We do not doubt Hamas would dearly love to kill Mr. Sharon if it could. There should be no immunity in war for leaders and commanders. There may have been excellent political and strategic reasons not to kill Sheikh Yassin, but to deny Israel is within its rights perplexes us.
Jang of Pakistan reports Pakistan defense spokesperson denies there is a ceasefire in effect with the renegade South Waziri tribals, says only discussion is for surrender. Meanwhile, to look at the situation the way the tribals would want, read Asia Times.
Orbat.com feels the Asia Times overstates the impact the fighting is having on the tribal areas. Nonetheless, the opposing viewpoint is of much interest. We would remind the Asia Times that in 1974-76 the Baluch tribals decided to challenge the Pakistan government and Army and were quickly and soundly defeated. Your editor no longer recalls the details, but one tactic used by the Pakistan Army proved very effective. It poisoned water wells and destroyed crops. To survive, tribals had to move to designated areas where they were identified and given IDs. A man who has to report every month to get rations for his family is not going to be an insurgent for long. In the past, Pakistan tribals could always get aid and succor from their brothers across the Afghan border, though this did not help the Baluch rebels. Right now the US and ANA are squeezing from the other side. The Waziri tribals should not inflate their opinion of themselves. Once a decision is taken to wipe out insurgent tribes, it will be implemented ruthlessly. The tribals are notorious for putting reality before principles. They are going to be confronted with some rather harsh reality.
Meanwhile, Jang reports 12 Pakistan Army troops were killed in a rocket attack on their convoy which was resupplying troops in Wana . CNN says tunnels between tribal houses and a 1.5-km tunnel that leads from the village under siege to the Afghan border have been uncovered, opening the possibility the "high-value target" has escaped.
CNN says Afghan National Army troops have been dispatched to Herat and a B-1 buzzed the city to try and lower tensions. A government source says that subsequent to a failed assassination attack on Herat Governor Ismail Khan, his son led an attack on local troops suspected of being being behind the attempt and was killed.
BBC reports the Nepal government has recovered the bodies of 100 militants and 28 Army soldiers; there is no confirmation of the Army's claim of 500 rebels killed, but if 100 bodies have been recovered, the rebel death toll must run much higher. Similarly, the rebels claim to have killed many more soldiers.
1130 GMT March 22, 2004
[Update]
Haaretz of Israel reports an IAF gunship fired 3 missiles at a car carrying the Hamas leader Sheik Yassin, killing him and 7 bodyguards, including his son. Israeli sources say the assassination was ordered to avoid giving the impression Israel is disengaging from Gaza because of Hamas pressure; nonetheless, Orbat.com notes the Sheikh has long been the target of assassination attempts.
0230 GMT March 22, 2004
Heavy Pakistan Reinforcements to Wana
100 Said Killed in Herat, Afghanistan Fighting
Nepal Army Says 500 Maoists Killed in Fighting
Jang of Pakistan reports local sources say now 20,000 Pakistan Frontier Corps and Army troops in South Waziristan, including units of the Corps' Kurram Militia. To Orbat.com this appears to be a doubling of the force committed and may explain why the Pakistan Army accepted a temporary ceasefire. Even the last ceasefire was used to reinforce and to resume operations.
While locals report absence of artillery fire, gunships continued to attack targets. Jang says bodies of 6 fighters recovered, appear to be Chechans. Said that the high value target who escaped was sheltering in a tribal's 17-room house with escape tunnels.
GOC Pakistan XI Corps uses very tough language, saying he will wipe out the tribals if they do not surrender. At this point it seems to us any sympathy for fellow Pakistanis and Islamic extremists is gone because of the blow to the Army's prestige. Its prestige is something the Pakistan Army zealously guards, and it is not going to quietly accept a defeat at the hands of a bunch of militants, no matter how good they may be.
Meanwhile, BBC and sources report heavy fighting in Herat, after the Herat Governor's son was assassinated. The son was aviation minister in the Kabul government. The Governor, Ismail Khan, escaped an assassination attempt earlier in the day. BBC says there are reports of rivalry between the Governor, who has his own private Tajik army, and the general who commands local troops not part of the army. [Approximately 3-400000 troops left over from the civil war period are still maintained by local warlords.]
The local general says that Ismail Khan's son tried to break into his [the general's] house during an attempt by the Governor to take over command of his men. The Governor's men have the general's house surrounded as well as the barracks of the 17th Division, which he commands.
Agencies report that in Nepal, Army troops ambushed 1500-2000 Maoist guerillas as they were preparing to attack Bedi village, Myagdi District, in West Nepal. The area has recently been reinforced by the Nepal Army because the Maoists have been expanding the area under their control. while 500 Maoists are said by the Army to have been killed, AFP notes that government claims have seldom been independently verified.
Agencies say protests have erupted in Taiwan as the opposition demands a recount. Whatever the outcome of this dispute, Washington Post reports that a separate issue, on if a referendum criticizing China for massing missiles against Taiwan should be staged, has failed.
0330 GMT March 21, 2004
South Waziristan Fighting Continues
Jang of Pakistan indicates Pakistan's Special Service Group lost 12 commandos in Friday's fighting near Wana in South Waziristan. 16 militants and 25 civilians were also killed. The civilians included 13 of one family traveling in a van which was attacked by AH-1 Cobras.
The leader of the renegade tribals said via satellite phone he would not surrender. He claims his men have killed 75 soldiers and Frontier Corps troops and are holding 18 prisoner. To Orbat.com the killed figure looks high, but according to our sources, perhaps as many as 50 soldiers and Frontier Corps men have been killed since the operation began Tuesday.
General Officer Commanding, Pakistan XI Corps is one the scene. Our information that two Pakistan Army brigades are involved is correct: approximately 4 battalions plus Frontier Corps troops are engaged in maintaining the cordon, while 2 battalions plus elements equal to half a SSG battalions are engaged in the fighting. There is at least one artillery regiment and one Cobra squadron on the scene. We have no information on air sorties flown on Friday and Saturday. The militants number up to 500.
Orbat.com comment Human rights advocates should resist the impulse to criticize the high civilian death toll - 25 were killed apparently on Saturday or Friday alone. The Pakistan Army did its best to warn people to evacuate, and fighting has been going on since Tuesday. If people will not leave, or leave when its too late, there are going to be civilian deaths.
We are shocked at the high Pakistan forces casualty rate. Since the militants are hunkered down at one place air strikes could take care of everyone. That extensive air strikes have not been used add weight to our speculation that the US has ordered Pakistan to capture alive as many people as possible.
Forbes reports Mr. Arafat is the 9th richest head of state [$200 million] and Mr. Fidel Castro is 10th [150 million]. King Fahd of Saudi Arabia is first [$25 billion], whereas the previous richest, the Sultan of Brunei, has slipped to 3rd [$14 billion]. In the G-8, Italy's Prime Minister is richest [$10 billion]. Mr. George Bush is quite poor [$15 million], but still better off that Mr. Tony Blair [$3 million] - who us still three times as well off as Mr. Helmut Schroeder [a pathetic $1 million].
1330 GMT March 20, 2004
[Update]
South Waziristan fighting [1] Jang of Pakistan reports 100 militants have been captured, but the number opposing Pakistan forces has now been uped to 4-500. Officials downplay possibility Osama and Al- Zawahri are inside the ring., saying it is a major Uzbek or Chechan commander. This may be true, or may be disinformation as Pakistan is aware Al Qaeda/Taliban closely monitors the news. One commander says these men are very disciplined and experienced fighters, and open fire only when it is to their advantage.
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Taiwan Election President Chen has won, BBC says, but with a majority of just 50,000 votes. 80% of Taiwan's 12 million voters turned out. Opposition calls for enquiry on circumstances of shooting and may demand recounts.
Kosovo AFP says Kosovo is tense but calm on Sarurday as 10,000 UN troops/police, 17,000 NATO troops, and 2000 reinforcements impose order. A top US NATO commander charges the disturbances were an attempt at ethnic cleansing. Of the almost 300,000 Serbs who lived in Kosovo [compared too 2 million Muslims], less than 100,000 remain as other started fleeing when the Kosovo troubles first broke out years ago.
Haiti French troops take over control of North, with companies sent to Cap Haitian and Gonaives in an effort to secure lines of humanitarian supply.
0330 GMT March 20, 2004
South Waziristan Fighting
[Update items from MSNBC, AFP, CNN, BBC, Jang of Pakistan]
Pakistani forces again miscalculated their tribal adversaries, but this time
it appears the fault was the Pakistan Army's, not the Frontier Corps'. Troops
attacking five villages in an area approximately 50 square km ran into
unexpected resistance. At least fifteen soldiers have already been killed.
The Pakistan Army has brought in the rest of a brigade plus of infantry, and
is now fighting house to house. It is being supported by artillery, gunships,
and airstrikes. It has set up a double cordon around the area, suggesting that a
second brigade is also involved.
Pakistan has upped the estimate of Al Qaeda/local tribal fighters from 200 to
3-400. Both sides are fighting ferociously. Eight fighters - 5 foreigners and 3
tribals who tried to escape were captured, but have not provided any
information. If this is true, we have to commend the fighters, deserving of
death though they all might be. They are captives in a situation which the
Pakistan Army is taking heavy casualties; no army - and the Pakistani, least of
all - will hesitate to use all means to get the prisoners to talk. Another 10
fighters tried to break out of the fort that is the focus of attack; two were
killed, both foreigners, the others managed to get back inside.
Locals who had refused to evacuate the area after being warned said that
about early afternoon firing died down, as tribal elders tried to open
negotiations. In Orbat.com's opinion, the only negotiations the Pakistan Army is
likely to embark on now is to discuss the handover over the foreign militants in
return for leniency for the tribals. The Pakistan Army has no expectation Al
Qaeda fighters will surrender. There are indications the Army is somewhat
surprised at the strength of the resistance despite the pounding the mud fort is
taking. Nonetheless, if the fighters are well dug in, artillery alone will not
solve the problem. If airstrikes are used, however, there may be no one left to
interrogate, and positive identification of bodies after air strikes is
difficult, particularly when no DNA or dental/medical records are available.
Pakistan seems fairly confident it has the area sealed. While we assume the
US has the area under complete and close surveillance, Orbat.com cautions
readers that the area is astonishingly conducive to the tribal if he simply
wants to lay low or contrive an escape. Whatever optimistic reports come from
Islamabad or Washington, we suggest that till Pakistan actually displays Dr. Al
Zawahri or his body, readers should hold expectations in abeyance.
It appears from interrogation of prisoners that the good doctor is indeed in
the area. Frontier Corps troops fired several rounds at a bullet-proof car - the
first that has been seen in the area - in the Tuesday fighting when the car
broke out of a cordon and sped to the area of the villages now under attack. The
car has apparently not been seen escaping, and any case escape by car at this
point is infeasible. Because the car was heavily damaged while under fire,
speculation is Dr. al-Zawahri has been wounded.
Reports say 100 British SF soldiers have arrived in Kabul, presumably to join
the hunt on the Afghan side. The Afghan National Army has sent 250
reinforcements to hold the cordon that has been thrown along the Afghan side of
the border. US sources say a dozen militants have been captured in the last week
as the fled Pakistan.
0130 GMT March 20, 2004
2000 NATO Troops Reinforcing Kosovo As Ethnic Violence Calms
CNN says Muslim-Serb violence appears to have calmed down in Kosovo. A UN
official expresses hope the corner has been turned. The death toll stands at 29,
revised downward from 32, and injured revised upward to 600 from 500. One
thousand Serbs were evacuated to KFOR bases for their security after being given
10 minutes to leave their houses or be lynched. Sixteen Serb churches and 110
homes have been burned; the Serbs burned a mosque.
CNN reports independent sources, refusing to be named, said the violence
against the state's 100,000 Serbs was planned, with cell-phone text messages
sent to Muslims to gather. The Serb government says every single Serb enclave
was attacked.
BBC says US concern over ex-Haiti president's involvement in narcotics
trafficking may have help motivate its decision to reverse course and call for
his ouster. 8% of narcotics entering the US are said to transit through Haiti.
The rebels are involved in narco-trafficking just as much as government backers.
BBC says both the President and Vice President of Taiwan are recovering from
wounds received in an assassination attempt. The President was shot in the
stomach and the Vice President in the knee. Both are home after surgery. BBC has
provided a tasteful color picture of the 11 cm long wound in the President
stomach after the bullet was removed and 14 stitches applied. Meanwhile, voting
has begun. The election was too close to call before the shootings. [Orbat.com
comment: obviously the assassin was an amateur. Here in Washington even petty
drug dealers use large-magazine automatic pistols, often of .44 caliber, to
settle their disputes. After a man [or a child or woman deliberately shot to
suppress witnesses, or people caught in crossfire] takes 8-12 rounds there is
little even America's fabled rapid response ambulances and shock trauma
hospitals can do.]
Times of London says there is evidence a Lebanese born businessman who made
his money trading oil, paid a former SAS officer to stage a coup in
Equatorial Guinea, Africa's 3rd largest oil producer. The 15 men arrested
in EG are headed by the coup leader, Nick du Toit, a South African. Contrary to
reports he had died under torture, Times says he is alive and now state's
witness.
The same story says that Zimbabwe now says it cannot prosecute the 70 men it
is holding [including 3 who came to meet the aircraft] for plotting overthrow of
a foreign government, as no suitable law exists on its book. They will be
charged with immigration offenses and with attempt to buy $160,000 worth of
small arms. The former SAS officer, who is one of the three arrested, says he
has an agreement with a Zambian government company to buy the weapons, so how
can he be accused of breaking the law? It is thought the plane stopped in
Zimbabwe because weapons are available cheaply.
Orbat.com Occasional Advice to the Young The Times says the
businessman paid the former SAS officer $5 million to stage the coup. If this is
true, the businessman would put most cheapskates to shame. No wonder the
operation has been so shoddily put together. Who would send mercenaries to a
country to pick up their weapons without declaring the 64 passengers? Didn't it
occur to anyone that Zambian customs are bound to inspect the aircraft to see if
the cargo and manifest agree? Lesson to the Young: A million dollars is not what
it used to be. Even a little coup like this should have been funded at between
$25-$50 million at the minimum. Also, right now is not the time to be thinking
of coups: Equatorial Guinea has become the center of a high-stakes game for its
oil and a lot of foreign nations, the US included, are prowling around. A single
Spanish parachute company would have put an end to the coup, even if 79
men sufficed to pull it off. Idiotic as the execution of the plan has been, the
concept has been worse.
1130 GMT March 19, 2004
[All Update items from AFP]
Pakistan operation in South Waziristan continues. Pentagon says US is
supporting the operation with technical means. Jang of Pakistan says an Al Qaeda
spokesperson says Osama and Al-Zawahri are safe in Afghanistan.
Taiwan's president was shot in the stomach just ahead of the Taiwan election;
his wound is not serious
ROK holds troop deployment to North Iraq after US informs Seoul it will
launch military operations in the north and asks ROK to join. ROK says its
troops were intended for reconstruction/security, not for combat operations.
0230 GMT March 19, 2004
Pakistan Officials Believe Al Qaeda #2 surrounded in Wana area
Reports from Pakistan are confused, not least because of the Pakistan
official spokesperson bad habit of automatically denying any reports contrary to
the picture he has been told to put out. With that caveat, we try below to make
the best out of different reports from Jang, The Nation [a leading Pakistan
paper], CNN, and BBC. Since Jang uses AFP extensively, it is reasonable to
assume some of Jang's reports come from AFP. CNN uses AP extensively.
Background: on Tuesday 700 Pakistan Frontier Corps paramilitary troops
launched a raid on a village near Wana, South Waziristan, where they believed
foreign militants and their Pakistan tribal supporters were hiding. The Frontier
Corps is not a militia, though we have used that term after the foreign press
started, to avoid confusing our general readers. FC battalions [they are not
called battalions, but as some point we have to stick with regular nomenclature]
are officered by the Pakistan Army, and are composed of long service personal,
usually recruited from the are where the FC unit is based. They are reasonably
well equipped. Because of overconfidence, the Frontier Corps unit involved ran
into an ambush, and suffered the worst casualties they have taken since
independence. Sixteen troops, including an officer on deputation to the FC, are
admitted killed - apparently tribals say even more were killed, and they've been
proved right before: the Pakistan Government was admitting to the loss of only 8
on Tuesday.
The FC then opened negotiations with the militants, and in hindsight that
appears to have been a ploy, perhaps in part to get back their captured
personnel, who number between 15 and 20. The main reason was to prepare its next
attack. Islamabad gave soothing explanations about ceasefires and talks, aiming
to convey the impression that a peaceful resolution was possible.
On Thursday, however, the FC opened a new offensive, this time with support
from Army artillery, gunships, tactical helicopters, troops from the Special
Service Group, and air support from at least two F-7 fighters. To get civilians
out of the way, in the early morning Thursday, Pakistan authorities gave 3 hours
warning to civilians to evacuate the area.
At some point, we are not clear when, Pakistan forces captured a number of
tribals associating with the militants. On interrogation, the prisoners gave
indications that Dr. al Zawahri, Osama's deputy, was holed up in the area under
attack.
Pakistan forces again encountered unexpected stiff resistance, including
heavy machine guns. Meanwhile, an unidentified military convoy in North
Waziristan was attacked: this area has been peaceful to now. The convoy fought
off the attackers, but a Pakistan Army major was killed. There is no indication
of how and if this attack is connected to events in South Waziristan.
Due to the prisoner reports and the heavy opposition, the Pakistan government
briefed reporters on background that they thought al-Zawahri was in the area,
and had been wounded in the previous fighting. Somewhat perplexingly, on
Thursday President Musharraf told CNN that the troops had an important Al Qaeda
person surrounded. We are perplexed because this is not the sort of information
you want to put out in case the target/s escape, as apparently has been the case
before.
Even more confusingly, locals have told the press that Osama is not in the
area, but the Pakistan authorities have raised the stakes by saying they don't
rule it out. We'd have thought they'd say they had no information, because if it
turns out he is present, and is not caught, the Pakistan government will suffer
a major embarrassment.
Meanwhile, locals say that the Pakistan Government mishandled the situation
by refusing to trust the tribal forces put together to hunt down the wanted
tribals and militants. The government, they say, did not take the tribal militia
into confidence; with the help of the tribal militia the Tuesday fiasco could
have been avoided.
We ask our readers to suspend judgment on this issue. The tribals like to
make out they are honest to the core, quivering with honor and decency; they
recognize that their tribe members who have sided with foreign militants against
Pakistan's interests are renegades, and they accept it is their duty under
frontier law to themselves bring their brothers to justice. The reality is quite
different: the tribals have been double dealing, as is their wont, and the
Pakistan Government would have very good cause not to trust the tribal militia.
Over the last month all that the tribals have done is to try and delay the
Pakistan offensive.
At the same time, we'd like to point out that given the degree of Pakistani
cooperation with the Taliban, and its tolerance of Al Qaeda operations from its
soil for the last two years, the tribals could be excused for their double
dealing. After all if members of the Pakistan Government - army, intelligence,
administration - have been openly dealing with the Taliban/Al Qaeda all this
time, why should the tribals snap their connections with brethren just because
this time the Pakistan Government says: "Now we are REALLY serious and we want
you to hand over these people." The situation can get very muddy when one set of
Pakistani officers says hand them over, and another set comes in the night to
say: disregard what those others just said, they are traitors and bad Muslims to
boot."
1200 GMT March 18, 2004
Jang of says Government forces relaunch South Waziristan operation near Wana,
this time with Army support and gunships. Populace was given 3 hours to clear
area before renewed attack. No details.
0230 GMT March 18, 2004
Pakistan Militia Suffer Severe Losses In Tuesday's Fighting
Agencies report that actually 16 Pakistani soldiers, not 8 as earlier stated
by the Pakistan Government - 15 Frontier Corps militiamen and 1 regular army
soldier - were killed in Tuesday's fighting when the Pakistan Government moved
into a tribal village to arrest locals accused of sheltering Taliban/Al Qaeda
fighters.
Jang of Pakistan says aside from several critically wounded militiamen, 19
are missing and presumed captured; six local government officials who got caught
in the fighting are also missing. In contrast, the government has not been able
to produce more than two bodies of militants against its claim of 24 militants
claimed killed. Tribal sources say only six men were killed on their side.
Pakistani militiamen were ambushed on their way to effect arrests: 19
military vehicles including 3 APCs were captured and burned by the militants.
Four mortars were also captured and destroyed.
Jang indicates the action was one sided and that the militia were completely
outfought by the militants. As closely as Orbat.com can make out, the militia
were hugely overconfident and were massacred by a relatively small group of
militants.
When Secretary of State Colin Powell congratulated the Pakistan Government on
the operation, clearly he did not know it was a fiasco. Orbat.com offers its
condolences to the families of the militiamen.
CNN reports another twist in the Venezuela recall petition. A 3-member group
of the Supreme Court declared the Election Commission's invalidation of 800,000
signatures as unlawful. But another group of the Court is pro-Chavez, and is
expected to rule the 3 had no authority to rule as they did. Apparently
Venezuela's 20 judge Supreme Court has panels that rule on different issues. A
difference between two panels can be resolved only by a full bench.
President Chavez says the ruling was politically motivated and that the
government will investigate the 3 judges. The government is not bound to obey an
illegal ruling, according to Chavez supporters.
Meanwhile, Haiti continues to roil Caribbean waters. CNN says both
pro-Aristide and anti-Aristide political groups have complained they have been
left out of the interim cabinet. Orbat.com feels that since both are basically
groups of armed criminals, exclusion is a reasonable action.
CNN adds that Mr. Aristide was guarded by a contract American security firm,
and that he now says the US told him it could not protect him, while at the same
time the US told the guards they had to leave, and also prevented a 25 person
reinforcement team from departing the United States.
Orbat.com asks: surely we are not the only ones who think Mr. Aristide's
security arrangements were a bit unusual? With the prospect of a bloody civil
war taking place when the rebels entered Port-au-Prince, and given that Mr.
Aristide had doubtful legitimacy, we don't think it sinister the US ordered the
security guards - presumably US citizens - to leave and refused permission for
reinforcements.
Jamaica has asked the Caribbean Community to investigate the ouster of Mr.
Aristide. Can any of our readers explain why Jamaica has chosen to align itself
with Mr. Aristide and what it hopes to gain?
US CENTCOM says Wednesday's bomb attack against a small Baghdad hotel was
aimed solely at civilians as no coalition troops were in the area.
Haaretz of Israel says Israeli troops have withdrawn from Rafah. Orbat.com
asks what was the Rafah operation supposed to prove? Seems to us it was a
political gimmick by the Israeli Government to show its people it was reacting
toughly to the port city bombing. This kind of retaliation can only strengthen
the Palestinian militants, who can rightly claim a victory; we presume the
Israeli Army understood this perfectly, before it went into Rafah.
0230 GMT March 17, 2004
32 Killed in Pakistan Frontier Shoot Out
Jang of Pakistan and AP report that 8 Pakistan militiamen and 24 suspected
militants were killed when 700 militia launched an operation against a fort
belonging to one of the 7 wanted Waziri tribesmen. Local say the casualties
among the militia, civilians, and militants are much higher, and that some
militiamen have been taken prisoner.
At last report, a ceasefire was in effect as the government, militants, and
tribesmen negotiate: it is likely the militia are from the South Waziristan
Scouts, who are locally recruited, so there would be considerable interest in
minimizing bloodshed. The negotiate-fight-negotiate sequence is typical of the
manner in which frontier disputes are handled.
Pakistan government says only two bodies of militants have been recovered so
far, apparently they are Chechans.
The Jang report is somewhat confused, but it appears some militiamen were
trapped while traveling along a dry stream bed. Most of the militia casualties
occurred here, as were most of the militiamen captured. Some of the militia were
helped to escape by sympathetic tribals.
Meanwhile, the Pakistan Government continues its crackdown against the
sub-tribes to which wanted men belong. It is using traditional tactics which are
part of "law" of the tribal areas: houses belonging to wanted men and those said
to have sheltered foreign militants are being destroyed, shops and businesses
are being sealed, vehicles are being impounded, and now tribal members in
government service are being fired.
The notion of collective responsibility is part and parcel of the law and
custom in the tribal areas. The Government leaves these areas alone, but when
tribal members commit crimes against the government, the latter has a right to
ask for them to be handed over. If the tribe responsible cannot or will not do
the needful, the government is permitted to impose collective punishment. The
tribal force raised in this particular area has been singularly high on rhetoric
and low on results, which led to the Pakistan Government moving on its own
against suspected hideouts after the expiry of the ultimatum.
Locals fear the onset of air strikes, which are a distinct possibility if the
situation does not stabilize and the tribal police themselves. So far the
Pakistan Army has not been engaged in this operation.
Mandeep Bajwa, our South Asia editor, tells us that a top Pakistan Special
Forces commander is in the area with HQs and sub-units from two SF battalions.
These troops are probably coordinating/cooperating with US SF in the Osama
search. There is one infantry brigade in the area, stationed after the Pakistan
Army moved into the tribal belt at US insistence; a second has reinforced for
the current operations.
Orbat.com advises readers and news media to ignore reports that the Pakistan
Government has for the first time stationed 70,000 troops in the tribal belt. At
least 55,000 of those are paramilitary [militia] units of the Frontier Corps,
that have traditionally policed the Afghan-Pakistan border. Some army
cantonments are located in the North West Frontier Provinces tribal areas, but
these are not considered an intrusion as they have been there since the colonial
era. Pakistan has moved in at most two brigades since 9/11, and may have a total
of 15,000 troops in the tribal belt that it did not have before. Of course, we
do not know what is happening along the Balochistan border, but have no reason
to believe regular army units have moved outside their traditional areas of
operation.
Meanwhile, the situation between Israel and Palestine has deteriorated
dramatically after the attack Sunday that killed 10 Israelis in ashdod Port.
Haaretz of Israel says the Israeli army has entered Rafah, and reports late
Tuesday night spoke of Israeli troops massing outside Gaza for a sustained
offensive.
Two Israeli helicopter strikes have killed 3 militants; NPR reports from the
area that Apache attack helicopters were hovering and more missile attacks are
expected.
The Israeli cabinet approved an expansion of militant assassination
operations, according Haartez.
Haaretz also says that Mr. Arafat has lost control of a number of his
fighters from Fateh; these are said to have joined Hamas.
BBC reports what to us is a surprising situation over Haiti. Venezuela has
refused to recognize the interim Haitian government and has offered sanctuary to
ex-President Aristide. Why President Chavez has decided to involve himself in
more controversy at this time is unclear to us. Moreover, Haiti has suspended
diplomatic relations with Jamaica after the later refused to prevent Mr.
Aristide from visiting. Jamaica says it will not recognize the interim
government until the Caribbean Community meeting next week.
At least Mr. Aristide's story of being kidnapped at gunpoint by US troops is
weakened by his arrival in Jamaica. There would be hardly any point to
kidnapping him and then leaving him free to return to the Caribbean.
0230 GMT March 16, 2004
Al Qaeda Scores First Victory As Spain PM Vows To Pull Troops from Iraq
Agencies report that many Spaniards and Europeans are concerned at reports that the Madrid bombings turned the Spanish electorate against the conservatives, who were presumed to have the election in the bag, and that subsequent - and immediate - promises by the new prime minister designate that he will pull Spain's 1300 soldiers out of Iraq have handed a victory to Al Qaeda. If the latter believes it can influence a whole democratic election with a few explosions and no losses to itself, Al Qaeda will get a much needed boost. It has been heavily pressed world-wide, and its intervention in Iraq is proving a failure: the Iraqis may not like the Americans, but they don't like any foreigners and that includes foreign terrorists. In Afghanistan the US is going in for the kill against the few hundred fighters that remain. Al Qaeda has been so tightly boxed in in the US it has has not managed to pull off a single attack since 9/11. The fear now is that Al Qaeda will get a new lease of life, and attacks on softer targets in the West will sharply escalate.
Orbat.com comment We are no experts on Spanish politics, but would
like to note three things. [1] The socialists lack a majority, and the
conservatives will hold just a few seats less. This limits the socialist room
for maneuver; which may be why the new Prime Minister designate has been talking
about cooperation and consensus and emphasizing the need to fight terror. [2] We
wonder if the socialists are as unaware of the consequences of a withdrawal of
Spanish troops from Iraq as is being made out. They have said they will pull out
unless the troops come under the UN. That is something a great many
Europeans agree with, and it doesn't lessen their commitment
To your editor's embarrassment, two Indians are among those arrested in connection with the Madrid blasts. He consoles himself that as the two have non-Muslim names, it is likely they were involved in nothing more sinister than selling stolen cell phones/cards. Incidentally, Jang of Pakistan knew three days ago the Indians were non-Muslims. Did any of our readers see any mention this was the case before the news became common currency yesterday?
Mandeep Bajwa sends us a report from a US forum that the FBI has asked internet providers to leave back doors so it can intercept email and other messages that are now almost totally immune to snooping. Naturally, the privacy advocates are outraged. At the same time, there is no denying the internet has become the preferred communication method for terrorists and criminals.
Mandeep Bajwa also tells us the same forum says a US watchdog organization has said it has found evidence that the US channeled about a million dollars in 2002 to anti-Chavez factions in Venezuela. The watchdog group is, of course, shocked and outraged - Americans no longer express any opinion except in terms of shock and outrage. The story, however, confirms what we often tell young would be "secret agent" types: avoid the Americans, there is no one cheaper when it comes to payment.
Jang of Pakistan says President Musharraf visited South Waziristan to meet with tribal leaders and said 600 foreign terrorists are hiding in the region and must be captured. He is seeking to calm tribal outrage at the pressure being brought on the Waziri tribes by the Pakistan government, who - after all - is asking nothing more than some adherence to the country's laws. Now, we support President Musharraf in the matter of combating Islamic extremism in Pakistan. But didn't he just a few months ago insist there were no foreign terrorists in Pakistan? He is often too simple-spoken for his own good, and should have put things differently: even then he knew he was not speaking the truth. We suggest he take lessons in proper doublespeak from our friends in Washington, and avoid these embarrassing situations.
Jang of Pakistan quotes without attribution a European wire service [probably AFP, which Jang uses] as reporting the French Chief of Defense Staff says that Osama has several times escaped capture, even at times when the net has been drawn tightly around him [we wonder if this is what happened two weeks ago]. He said Osama must be caught, and that 200 French troops are cooperating with US/Afghan forces in the hunt. He warned of Islamic extremists using weak African countries as bases. He also said that not a day went by when French interceptors did not scramble against aircraft that had strayed from assigned flight paths. He apparently made the comment to show that France was on complete alert.
Pravda wryly notes that when President was elected the first time, the Kursk sank. His second reelection coincided with the Moscow theatre siege. Now he has been reelected a third time, and a historic building next to the Kremlin's walls has been razed to the ground in a fire. The building is described as a "masterpiece" of Russian architecture.
0230 GMT March 15, 2004
BBC reports President Putin wins election with exit polls predicting 69% votes in his favor; communists a distant second with 12%
Jerusalem Post reports that Israeli Defense Forces are recasting the army's size and structure now that Iraq is no longer a threat. A reduction in heavy combat brigades appears in favor of light infantry seems certain, and overall number of brigades will also fall. A new armor company TO is in the works. Thanks to Gordon A. MacKinlay for forwarding the story.
CNN says Spanish socialists win upset near majority in parliament, will form government. Pledge anti-terror as priority, ask conservatives to cooperate in fight. CNN reports anger in Spain that government so quickly fixed blame on ETA for Madrid bombings; notes majority of Spaniards were against war in Iraq.
CNN says US to introduce new system to identify people entering and leaving Iraq; Iran crossings to be limited to three; total 20 crossings. System will be turned over to the new Iraq interim government.
Jang of Pakistan reports that a Waziri tribal militia organized to hunt down men suspected of sheltering Al Qaeda has said, a day after it was formed, more time to find the absconding members of their tribe and to negotiate with them. The most wanted emerged from hiding long enough to phone in and say the militia was not about to act against its own members. Meanwhile, the 24 hour deadline given by the Pakistan Army to the Waziris to sort out the matter themselves expires today.
0330 GMT March 14, 2004
Spain Arrests 3 Moroccans, 2 Indians As Madrid Suspects
This is not the kind of news your editor, an Indian citizen, like carrying. CNN reports that Spanish authorities have arrested 3 Moroccans and two Indians in connection with the blast, and have under interrogation two additional Indians now Spanish citizens.
Your editor seeks consolation in the news that as yet there are no bomb charges against these people. Rather, they are being detained for the falsification of a cell phone card and cell phone found in one of the 3 unexploded bags.
CNN adds that a man claiming to represent Al Qaeda sent a videotape, now in the custody of the Spanish authorities, saying the organization was responsible for the blasts.
CNN says an estimated one in 4 Spaniards took part in the demonstrations protesting against the Madrid atrocity yesterday. At 11 million people this could well be one of the biggest demonstrations in history. Orbat.com hopes that the bombers understand that instead of cowing the Spanish people, they have achieved the opposite result. We realize there is not much basis for our hope: Al Qaeda, if indeed it is responsible, seems to have no brains at all.
IRNA of Iran reports that Iran has indefinitely frozen all cooperation with the IAEA, after the body voted to accept without dissent a US-led resolution condemning Iran for not been frank with the world body.
Jang of Pakistan says the US has launched Operation Mountain Storm in Afghanistan, in conjunction with Pakistan forces operating on their side of the border. A US spokesperson says that if the operation continues past March 21 it can be considered a spring offensive, but is not the spring offensive. [Orbat.com: the spokesperson is a definite contender for the 2004 Bill Clinton Award.]
Jang adds that a US air strike killed 12 suspected Taliban as they drove along a highway.
Meantime, CENTCOM says the two-month old Operation Blizzard has ended with 22 enemy combatants killed.
BBC says US troops killed two Haitian gunmen in Port-au-Prince; locals say they were merely bystanders. Orbat.com says this is a rare and happy situation where both sides could be absolutely correct. The men could have been armed bystanders; the US has said it will disarm any unauthorized person found with arms. These gentlemen were disarmed.
BBC says Zimbabwe will charge the 67 men arrested at Harare with plotting to destabilize a sovereign government, i.e., Equatorial Guinea, where the men are said to have been heading. Fifteen people are under arrest in Equatorial Guinea for planning a coup.
Orbat.com staffer Vishal sends word that the Indian Air Force will hold Exercise Vijay Shakti [Victorious Strength], a firepower demonstration, at the Pokharan ranges on March 14. We assume that will tie up with the last phase of the major army exercise underway at the same location. Exercise Divya Astra [Divine Weapon] is testing new tactical concepts with Pakistan as the objective. We have some details, and will try and put them up in timely manner.
0400 GMT March 13, 2004
Confusion on Responsibility for Madrid Blasts
CNN reports divergent views on the responsibility for the Madrid commuter train blasts. Spain clearly continues to suspect ETA, not least because the explosives used were similar to those intercepted previously in an anti-ETA operation, and because the terrorist organization had earlier tried to attack a commuter rail line.
The US says ETA does not have the necessary organization to conduct such and attack and suspects Al Qaeda. However, the US has discounted the claim of responsibility by group allegedly fronting for Al Qaeda: this group has made false claims before, notably saying it had cause the massive power outage in the Eastern US in September 2003.
CNN says US forces are supporting a Chad Army offensive that has already killed 43 members of an Al Qaeda allied group. US aircraft are providing surveillance and supplies. US plans to train Chad troops this summer, in an extension of its already wide-ranging military presence in Africa south of the Sahara. [Orbat.com would like to point out this US "takeover" in Africa is an unprecedented quite success that has drawn next to no attention in the world media, leave alone in America. Nor is the US is any hurry to publicize its presence and it keeps as low a profile as possible.
A somewhat obscure report from Jang of Pakistan speaks of clashes between Pakistan and Afghanistan tribal militias in the Waziristan area. Apparently US and Afghan forces have entered Pakistan claim territory and are renovating an old fort to use in the hunt for Osama Bin Laden.
BBC reports on the continuing imbroglio over Iran's nuclear program. The US says Iran keeps changing its story to fit new facts as they are discovered. The head of the IAEA has said Iran has been in violation of its NPT treaty obligations for years. Iran threatens not to let UN inspectors continue work and says its suspension of uranium enrichment - claimed to be for civilian purpose even though the program is under military control - is only temporary.
Pravda reports the director of the Russian Agency for Weapons Production says 37% of his 127 factories are on the verge of bankruptcy. The agency has a debt of 45 billion rubles, half of its total production, and is struggling with outdated equipment. The director nonetheless claims that production has increased 2.3 times and wages six times over the last five years.
0300 GMT March 12, 2004
Al Qaeda Claims Responsibility For Madrid Blasts
MSNBC reports that though initially Spanish authorities blamed the Basque ETA for the explosions that killed 190 commuters and injured almost 1300 more, a van was found with detonators and an Arabic tape; together with a claim of responsibility by Al Qaeda, this has led Spain to rule out ETA. Spanish authorities say ETA always telephones before a bomb attack to give civilians a chance to clear the area. Ten explosions took place within 15 minutes on a nine mile sector of rail line; three more bombs were found and neutralized.
Nonetheless, BBC says ETA is not being ruled out despite the Al Qaeda claim - there seem to be reasons to doubt the authenticity of the claim.
CNN says ex-President Aristide will visit Jamaica for 8-10 weeks to spend time with his children who are in the US. He is not seeking asylum. To ensure there is no misunderstanding, the Jamaican Prime Minister praised the interim Haitian Prime Minister, Mr. Latortue. The latter has said that while it was true Mr. Aristide had been pressured to leave, he was not abducted.
Washington Post US troops in Haiti are to change tactics: they will now disarm any unauthorized person carrying arms. The change comes as looting continues in Port-au-Prince. So far 4 Haitian gunmen have been killed by US Marines in self-defense.
Jang of Pakistan speaks of a 600 strong Waziri tribal force raised yesterday to hunt for wanted tribals accused of sheltering foreign fighters and for others. Orbat.com does not know if this is the same force that was announced earlier in the week, or a second one. Waziri chieftains have warned wanted people not to flee: the houses they had sheltered in would be demolished and the house owner fined $20,000 - a huge sum in those parts.
0230 GMT March 11, 2004
Reader Rahul Narang forwards a report by AFP in which US national security Paul Wolfowitz says Pakistan had not been cooperating in turning over Taliban members, thinking that the US just wants Al Qaeda. with the Afghanistan election due in June, getting the Taliban out of the picture is important. Mr. Wolfowitz freely admits that the US going easy on Dr. A.Q. Khan is intended to buy Pakistan's cooperation in the ant-terror war.
Orbat.com has already noted that if Pakistan thinks the Dr. A.Q. Khan affair is over, it is mistaking. Whatever Islamabad may think, all the US has promised is to let the matter slide - for now. US negotiators are masters of the art of letting the other side believe what it wants without actually lying. But what is not lying for a lawyer - and US negotiators are lawyers, may well be outright lies for an ordinary person.
News of the mildly absurd Jang of Pakistan has a story dramatically stating that China is considering expansion of its assistance to Afghanistan and how this is indicative of a more aggressive foreign policy etc etc. Then Jang reveals that China has exactly one police officer in Afghanistan. What next? A story about how China is to double its presence in Afghanistan? That would take sending one more officer.
Arabnews.com reports Saudi Arabia has commissioned a study to construct
a 1600-km rail line from its north to Jubail port in the east, and passing
through Riyadh. The line will carry bauxite for refining and export via
Jubail.
CNN reports that speculation over the 64 "mercenaries" detained in Zimbabwe is that they were enroute to Equatorial Guinea for a coup attempt. Fifteen South Africans have been detained in Equatorial Guinea on suspicion of involvement in a possible coup attempt.
Meanwhile, BBC says Zimbabwe intends to put the men on trial and has threatened punishment up to and including the death penalty.
[Orbat.com comment: while no one should underestimate stupid mistakes people can make, we dont like this explanation. The aircraft had already refueled once before landing in Zimbabwe for another refueling. Every model of 727 has its own range, and this is a -100; still, it was carrying only 67 passengers and crew, so we don't understand why it had to refuel again. Further, when the aircraft manifest declared just three crew, allegedly with no mention of the passengers, how did potential coup plotters plan to get past customs and security in Equatorial Guinea? Since there were no arms on board, clearly no one planned a coup-de-main to seize the airport. Conversely, if the flight was an innocent one, why not declare the passengers as security guards on their work in the Congo?
0300 GMT March 10, 2004
The US Army is to shift 100,000 troops from Guard engineer, artillery, and armor units to lighter units suitable for new military requirements such as Iraq. In addition, the Army is tailoring regular units being sent to Iraq to retrain combat engineers and artillery to infantry, to boost patrol capabilities. In most cases the Guard and regular transformations are temporary. Thanks to correspondent Gordon A. MacKinlay for this news from the International Herald Tribune.
Orbat.com note The same story mentions the US is having trouble retaining personnel despite a $5000 addition to the re-enlistment bonus. Would it be untoward of us to suggest that since a replacement costs at least ten times that to train, not to speak of the loss of experience, the US Army should offer a bonus that might make sense? Even in America, with a 6% unemployment rate and good jobs hard to come by for tens of millions of people, $5000 is no compensation for the rigors of military life and overseas deployments.
The mystery surrounding the B-727 with 64 "mercenaries" aboard that is being detained in Zimbabwe, and suspected of being part of an attempt to destabilize the Mugabe regime, has ended anticlimactically. BBC says A London-based operator has claimed ownership of the aircraft and said the men were enroute to the Congo to work as security guards. That would explain the military uniforms and boots, and also the lack of any arms. There is no indication as yet if the Zimbabwe government has accepted this explanation.
News of the Mildly Weird A former Pakistan Army Chief of Staff claims that Pakistan's nuclear program has been penetrated by MI5, CIA, Mossad, and India's RAW. It cannot be rolled back, he said. It is an entirely peaceful program, and since 1999 has been under the National Command Authority. Orbat.com comment: why should MI5 be penetrating Pakistan's nuclear program? And since when has anyone put a "peaceful" - presumably civilian - nuclear program under a national command authority?
Pravda says Qatar authorities have permitted two Russian intelligence officers detained in connection with the assassination of a rebel Chechan leader only two visits from consulate officials. A request for medical checks for the men has not yet been agreed to. Pravda says Qatar supports Chechen terrorist activities and the two agents were in Qatar to learn what they could. Qatar has refused to let Russian lawyers represent the accused and no Qatari lawyer has come forward for them.
1130 GMT March 9, 2004
Zimbabwe Seizes US-registered Aircraft, Detains 64 "suspected mercenaries"
CNN reports Zimbabwe has seized a US-registered B-727 and arrested 64 people on board suspected of being mercenaries. While no weapons were found, aircraft had camouflage uniforms, a dinghy, portable radios, and bolt cutters. [Orbat.com would think except for the camouflage uniforms all other items would be standard survival gear for a passenger aircraft.] The owner of record of the aircraft says it was sold recently to a South African company.
Iraq interim constitution signed.
UK Telegraph says UK 22 SAS to add fifth Sabre squadron, about 60 men, in first expansion in 50 years. Overstretched because of the war on terror, the 400 man unit has been making do by activating volunteers from 21 and 23 SAS, the reserve units. Thanks to Mandeep Bajwa for forwarding the news item.
Jang of Pakistan reports Pakistan tested its 2000-km range Shaheen II missile today. Orbat.com adds: Indian scientists dispute Pakistan missile program is effective, saying there is little evidence of indigenous capability and sanctions plus anti covert procurement operations by western powers have further hurt its capabilities.
Agencies say US awards first seven Iraq reconstruction contracts for 5 billion: Iraqi, Polish, and UAE companies win bids which will create 14,000 Iraqi jobs.
0330 GMT March 8, 2004
CNN says CAR officials prevented Mr. Aristide's wife from speaking to journalists. Later they apologized, but said neither she nor her husband can use CAR territory to push their case. The officials promised Mr. Aristide would speak at a news conference in 72-hours - presumably this will be carefully scripted by the CAR foreign minister. Meanwhile, between 4-8 people were killed when presumed pro-Aristide groups fired on an anti-Aristide demonstration.
CNN reports President Chavez of threatening a 100 year war if the US tries to invade Venezuela as it invaded Haiti. American will never get Venezuelan oil this way. Orbat.com thinks he is being a bit silly: the US did everything it could not to invade Haiti and went only when clearly invited by the government. Moreover, even Mr. Chavez knows oil if fungible. Venezuela needs to sell its oil to someone, that someone needs to sell it on the world market, and the US gets the oil it needs in any case.
Times of India says while US is playing down the chances of Osama being captured, US officials say the present operation is quite different because Pakistan is committed to helping from its side of the border to trap him. Orbat.com has no doubt a major section of the Pakistan Army wants Osama caught. He wrecked Pakistan's control of the Taliban, and through 9/11 has inflicted much pain on Pakistan. Pakistan loses nothing, but gains much, if Osama is taken out. Nonetheless, sympathy for Osama runs high in the Pakistan military and intelligence, as does hatred of the United States. It takes only one intelligence officer or an army major to decide Osama will not be caught.
Jang of Pakistan says a Waziri tribe is forming a 600 man unit to join the hunt for Osama and to reinforce tribal militias hunting their own renegade members wanted by the Pakistan government for aiding Taliban.
0400 GMT March 7, 2004
Agencies say CAR has asked ex-President Aristide to stop talking to the press unsupervised. CAR Foreign Ministry says it will not cut his telephone, or expel him, but he has to behave as a guest. Any journalist wanting to meet Mr. Aristide will have to seek accreditation. After floating a bizarre but at least somewhat plausible story that he had been given no time to act or think, and that he was put on an outbound plane with US troops with no opportunity to change his mind, Mr. Aristide has come up with a new villain, France. It his demand for reparations for France's enslavement of Haiti that has led the French to depose him, he says. The French were understandably not amused. Since the CAR is their backyard, presumably Paris phoned Bangui to ask for more discreet behavior on Mr. Aristide's part.
BBC, others, report US official as saying that Libya has shipped the last 500 tons of its nuclear equipment, including 5 Scud missiles and launchers, to the United States. Its chemical agent stocks have been shifted to a single, secure warehouse for destruction.
Orbat.com question Do any of our readers share our growing impression that the Libya disarmament deal was actually negotiated and its programs began dismantling well before the official announcement? The logistics of identifying, tracking down, packing, shipping and verifying hundreds of tons of equipment, thousands of documents etc has to to have taken longer than is being indicated.
Times of India reports that a former head of Pakistan's ISI, now a member of Pakistan's parliament, said during a parliament debate that the now outlawed terror group Jaish-i-Mohamed was behind the attack on India's parliament in late 2001, the attempts on President Musharraf's life, the murder of Daniel Pearl, and the deaths of "thousands" of innocent Kashmiris. If the report is true, this is an astounding statement for a former Pakistani spy chief to make: India has long believed the above is the case, but to hear a Pakistani spy chief confirm it is quite unexpected.
Meanwhile, Press Trust of India reports US says that one of the 4 men on the attack team that tried to kill President Musharraf by ramming his motorcade in explosive laden vehicles, was an ISI captain. Pakistan has denied the allegation, saying he was merely a holy warrior who was caught in Afghanistan by the US. Pakistan says its ISI cleared him when the US asked about him. This was a mistake and should not have been done, says Pakistan. The US says it was no mistake, that the officer had gone to Afghanistan to help the Taliban - presumably as the US was closing in during the 2001 campaign, and was captured. The implication is the ISI recognized its man and vouched for him as "innocent" to get him freed.
Orbat.com comment: Another example of how the world of spies is even more weird than any novelist could dream of.
0245 GMT March 6, 2004
Shias Again Hold Up Iraq Constitution Signing
CNN reports that the Shias again held up the signing of the interim constitution which was rescheduled for yesterday. One issue was a provision previously agreed to that three of the countries 18 provinces could, after voting with a 2/3rds majority, force the amendment of the permanent constitution if they disagree with its wording. The Kurds control 3 provinces which they wish to remain autonomous.
CNN says the five Shia members of the Council who balked after agreeing were acting at the behest of Ayatollah Sistani, who has already twice thwarted the US in its attempts to shape post-Saddam Iraq.
Orbat.com notes that the US has genuinely tried to come to a compromise agreeable to all 3 Iraqi factions. Ayatollah Sistani may be having fun frustrating the Americans, and may be determined to show he will have everything his way. We fear this 75-year old man with no experience whatsoever with democracy will, instead, end up with nothing. If only he and his supporters suffer as a consequence, we will hardly be sorry. It is, however, the people of Iraq that will suffer. The Kurds and the Sunnis will never agree to a Shia ruled Iraq, whatever the Ayatollah and Teheran may think. There is a real danger that this stand will plunge Iraq into a civil war that will also consume Iran.
We hear that Exercise Divya Astra is being held by the Indian Army in great part because of the wish of the Army Chief, a known ruling party sympathizer, to help the party in the coming elections by projecting an image of a powerful and confident military. This is not the exercise season in the subcontinent. See Analysis for a short note on the aims and purposes of the exercise.
Washington Post notes that the Venezuela signature collection drive asking for a referendum on President Chavez's continuance as president was closely monitored by international observers and declared fair. The requirement for over 800,000 signers who had put their thumbprint but had their names written in by others to identify themselves in person is something the Election Commission has come up with after the event. Further, the Post says it is logistically impossible for so many people to be verified in the 1-2 days the election authorities have given.
Agencies say more troops continue to arrive in Haiti: the US is now up to 1250, France is building up to to 800, and a Chile battalion of 400 is arriving. Canada is to increase its contingent to 450 plus 6 helicopters within 5 days. Brazil will deploy 1100 troops. With an additional 1500 US troops expected, the intervention force should reach its target of 5,000 in the next two weeks. Troops have fanned out in Port-au-Prince and looting has subsided. The US has demanded rebel militias disarm after several incidents in which militiamen and US troops almost opened fire on each other.
BBC says US Marine teams have arrived in the rebel held north, with reports saying the teams are in Cape Haitien, Gonaives, and possibly even in Port-au-Paix.
BBC says Sri Lanka government rejects a separate peace agreements with the LTTE breakaway eastern rebel leader, saying it signed a ceasefire with the LTTE in 2002 and it cannot negotiate with a faction.
Haartez of Israel quotes US sources as saying Washington will impose economic sanctions on Syria within the next week or two as Syria is refusing to cooperate in the anti-terror fight. As the trade between the two nations is only $300 million, the sanctions will have a political rather than an economic effect.
0245 GMT March 5, 2004
BBC reports unprecedented split in Tamil Tiger rebel movement in Sri Lanka, with the senior eastern commander, from whose are most Tiger fighters come, objecting to control of the movement by northern leaders. The breakaway commander has asked for a separate ceasefire with the governments. The split is said to come at an inopportune time, with Sri Lanka heading for the polls in a month. Arduous and twisting negotiations to include the Tigers in the election may now go down the drain as the movement is no longer united.
BBC reports Venezuelan ambassador to UN resigns in protest against President Chavez's policies. The disqualification of 1.1 million signatures on the recall petition has further polarized the country. An anti government leader at the state level was shot dead in a demonstration.
Jang of Pakistan says the US has arrested a Saddam intelligence officer and seven others in Iraq.
CNN says the US is about to implement round-the-clock surveillance against Osama; among the tools used will be U-2s, Predator UAVs, and ground sensors. The senior US commander in the Mideast denies US knows where Osama is hiding, but says the US plans to make life uncomfortable for him through this year.
However: our South Asia editor Mandeep Bajwa sends us a report from sify.com quoting an uncited media source as saying the US has evidence that the Pakistan Army continues to help Taliban to escape from Pakistan even as the US and Pakistan set up a squeeze play against the Taliban. Mr. Bajwa reports that Pakistan 7 Division from XI Corps [Peshawar] is the major army formation in the Pakistan offensive.
0200 GMT March 4, 2004
Orbat.com's Pacific editor, Gordon A. MacKinlay, forwards a most interesting piece from the International Herald Tribune detailing how Poland has become the new border of Western Europe. While it will not strike younger readers as particularly extraordinary, it is of great interest to those of us brought up at a time the Cold War was thought to be a never-ending fact of life.
Agencies report that Mr. John Kerry will be the Democratic party's candidate to oppose President Bush in the November 204 election.
CCN reports Haiti rebel leader Guy Phillipe says his men will disarm after he was assured by a US Marine commander than ex-President Aristide's supporters will disarm. US says its troops will not interfere between rebels and pro-Aristide forces and will not perform civil police duties such as stopping looting. The US force will build up to 1000 troops by Sunday; US Marines are moving to assume control of the seaport.
Pravda reports President Putin has ordered an investigation into the failure of 3 missile launches during the recent Bezopasnost - 2004 (Security-2004) exercises, but believes the Russian defense minister is bring told by Mr. Putin that he - the defense minister - is to conduct a new series of exercises which the president will inspect. Implicit is the threat that these exercises should be successful or else...
Pravda further says despite all the talk about revitalizing Russia's armed forces, it is only now that an-all volunteer paratroop division has been manned, and that too because Russia accepted volunteers from the former Soviet republics. Pravda says there is little by way of new equipment, and what there is iks quite useless.
BBC quotes figure of 271 dead in Iraq blasts, number is from a government official. US says it will double the size of the Border Police, currently 8,000, and allot $60 million more for equipment and vehicles.
BBC's Paul Anderson floats an interesting thesis: the Pakistan nuclear program is heading for limbo and will in effect be rolled back. Since Pakistan relied on smuggled components to create its program, and since the world will be much more alert in stopping smuggling of technology and parts to Pakistan, plus more intrusive in inspections, Pakistan will be unable to modernize its weapons. Nuclear weapons have to be regularly updated. Anderson says restraints on Pakistan's ability to modernize began seven years ago.
Haaretz of Israel says the Israeli Air Force fired a missile at a car near the Netzarim settlement, killing 3 Hamas militants. Hamas acknowledges the dead as its men and promises revenge. Meanwhile, another scandal has hit Prime Minister Sharon, this time concerning Israeli reserve colonel Tennanbaum who was part of a costly-to-Israel prisoner swap with Arab militants. The scandal could derail Mr. Sharon's leadership position. Orbat.com is unsure if it should keep up with details of this scandal. This seems to be a weekly routine in Israel, and Mr. Sharon seems ready to go nowhere.
0200 GMT March 3, 2004
Agencies including BBC and Times of India say anti-Shia terrorists strike in Karbala [112 dead] and Baghdad [70 dead]; 41 Shias killed and 150 wounded in Quetta, Pakistan, death toll expected to climb. Large numbers of Shias were proceeding in procession as all three places to commemorate Ashura, their holiest day of the year, high tolls because the crowds were packed. In the Iraq blasts a combination of suicide bombers and explosives in cars/packages was used; in Quetta, gunmen fired on a procession.
Our French editor M. Richard Morati sends an orbat for French forces in Haiti - please look under URL for America Goes to War.
NPR reports US says it will not tolerate a take-over of Haiti by rebels; CNN says rebel commander Guy Phillipe declares himself Haiti's police leader and says he will not take orders from any foreigners; threatens to arrest Haiti's interim head, head of Supreme Court; Mr. Phillipe asked by US to lay down his arms. Said Canadian SF troops are in Haiti mainly to help evacuate Canadians as needed.
Questions are being asked as to how a rebel militia, better armed than the Haitian Army of 1994, emerged from nowhere and took over half the country within days. Suspicion is cocaine traffickers are behind the rebel militia.
Pakistan annual naval exercise Seaspark 2004 concludes; Exercise Naseem-Al-Behr , which appears to be a part of Seaspark, between Saudi and Pakistani nvaies concludes simultaneously. Meanwhile we hear Indian Army's Exercise Divya Astra has tested new tactical concepts; we have no details, but suspect they are related to airmobile and high-speed tank assaults.
BBC says a top advisor to President Arafat is killed due infighting in Palestine Authority; rumors circulate that the PA is out of money thanks to corruption, and a strong faction wants Arafat gone.
1130 GMT March 2, 2004
Venezuela Election Commission Postpones Recall Decision
CNN reports that the Venezuelan Election Council postponed till today a decision on if to accept 1.1 million signatures of the 3.4 million submitted on a petition to stage a recall vote on the future of President Chavez. 2.4 million signatures are required for a ballot. The council is expected to reject 400,000 signatures and to order 700,000 citizens to verify their signatures. Meanwhile, there was some violence in the capital as anti-Chavez demonstrators clashed with National Guard troops. A government election ruled out martial law as a means of handling unrest.
MSNBC reports rebels enter Port-au-Prince but stay away from Presidential Palace which is guarded by US Marines. Some reprisal killing of Aristide supporters reported. The interim force will number 5000 and withdraw after a UN force is organized.
Agencies report ex-President Aristide says via telephone from Central African Republic that he was forced on to a plane by 20 heavily armed "white" soldiers who accompanied him to the CAR. He said he did not voluntarily leave. Secretary Powell described the charge as "absurd".
1100 GMT March 1, 2004
UN Authorizes Haiti Force; US Marines Land By Air
The UN authorized an intervention force for Haiti, and MSNBC reports that 100 US Marines landed by air late Sunday night itself. More will arrive today. Meanwhile, the French contingent so far numbers 230: eighty gendarmes from France and 150 infantry from its Caribbean garrisons. ex-President Aristide is said to be in the Central African Republic.
Agencies say the Iraq interim ruling council finally agreed to a draft constitution, one day after the Saturday deadline, and will be signed on Wednesday. The sovereignty handover date of June 30 stands, but election dates and modes are still to be negotiated. Grand Ayatollah Sistani earlier had agreed for elections to be postponed till year's end; it remains to be seen if even this delay is adequate.
Agencies say New Yorker's Seymour Hersh reports Pakistan has agreed to let US forces operate inside Pakistan [Orbat.com: it is no secret US forces have been inside Pakistan for months, in small numbers] during the spring offensive, in return for the US accepting President Musharraf's pardon of Dr. Khan. [Orbat.com Note to Dr. Khan - it's also no secret if and when Osama is dealt with the US is coming after you - the deal only buys you some time.] Mr. Hersh claims US intelligence is on contact with persons in regular contact with Osama.
Jang of Pakistan says US media reports Osama is indeed in custody, but then contradicts itself by quoting New York Times on preparations for anti-Osama operation.
CNN says with the UN approval of a 6200 troop peacekeeping force for Ivory Coast, Africa will soon have more than 30,000 UN peacekeepers: 15,000 are in Liberia and 11,500 in Sierra Leone. The West African contingent of 1000 in Ivory Coast will become part of the new UN force; other contingents are yet to be identified.
0001
French Troops To Haiti
Our French Editor, M. Richard Morati, reports that:
Two French companies based in French Antillas (Guadeloupe et Martinique) will be very quickly deployed in Haiti by today morning. Transport aircraft (C 160), helicopters (Puma and Ecureuil) and navy combat ships are permanently in this regional sector. Indications are the an airborne squadron of the French Gendarmerie will be deployed from France.
1630 GMT February 29, 2004