January 2004 News Archive

0300 GMT January 31, 2004

US Asked Taliban 30 Times For Osama's Expulsion

  • CNN reports that the National Security Archive, an independent research group based at George Washington University in Washington, DC, has obtained declassified cables from the US State Department that show the US made 30 approaches to the Taliban between 1996 and April 2001, asking Osama Bin Laden be expelled. [We presume the US wanted him expelled to its officials.] The Taliban at first agreed that no terrorist could be harbored by them, but then changed their mind saying expelling him would violate their code of hospitality. Instead, they would put him on trial. They then said Osama had committed no crime and the US had not made its case he had.

  • Orbat.com note we can't help wondering if the surviving members of the Taliban leadership ever ask themselves if the refusal to give up Osama was the best decision they ever made. If Osama was giving them $10-$20 million a year, America would have multiplied that by ten in a wink. As for the hospitality bit, anyone who has had any dealing with Northwest Indian sub-continent tribals knows that the concept can be interpreted very differently depending on the situation.

  • Meanwhile, from the Times of India we learn of a story of the type we relish, probably because it satisfies the armchair conspirator  side of ourselves and so many of our readers. In 1995, a British man was arrested for air dropping arms over a district in India's West Bengal. Clearly the arms were meant for insurgents and anti-India people; the Indian courts sentenced him to life in jail. All along he maintained he was acting with the full knowledge of British intelligence. Naturally everyone thought he was crazy. In 2004 it turns out he was right: the British have admitted he was acting with their full knowledge; that they were in communication with Indian intelligence, who also knew he was acting with the knowledge of British intelligence. Both sides remained silent, leaving this gentleman to rot in an Indian jail. The Times says one mystery has been resolved, but another one opens: who were the arms destined for, and why did the Indian not Government intercept the aircraft when it knew all the details of the operation? And why has all this been admitted now? The man is to be released shortly.

  • Orbat.com Advice To Our Young Readers   This story could be straight from a thriller. But there is nothing romantic about being subjected to the tender interrogative attentions of Indian intelligence, or being in an Indian jail. Next time you decide working undercover is cool, please make sure you are a full-fledged employee of the intelligence service in question. In case you still have doubts, please be reminded that being forced to eat ground up glass is considered a highly sophisticated interrogative technique. This is about the most "Suitable for General Audiences" technique we could think of to share. It goes downhill from there. And of course, compared to Saddam's interrogators, the Indians are cuddly teddy bears.

  • Reader Gordon A. McKinlay sends us some details of the US plan to increase its personnel strength by 5% from its baseline 485,000, while increasing the number of combat brigades by a third. In addition to the 30,000 new troops, the US will shift 10,000 jobs to civilians, freeing those men for field duty, and convert several units not needed in the current environment, such as artillery, to infantry. We remind readers the US already uses civilians for a much wider range of duties than most armies - 485,000 is not the actual strength of the army. We will carry an article in Sunday's Contemporary Orbats update on details of this transformation.

  • Orbat.com comment Recent media reports speak of Mr. Donald Rumsfeld's mistakes and the pressure he is under from Congress and other sources over his refusal to expand the Army. We also thought he was being plain stupid. Turns out we were wrong: he was craftily working on his transformation plan all the time and he has again outfoxed all those who disagree with him.

 

0130 GMT January 30, 2004

7 GIs Killed In Ammunition Cache Blast Near Ghazni

  • Orbat.com Note We normally do not publish casualty stories because we do not want to fuel the US media's weepy manner of reporting losses. We wonder if the US could have fought World War 2 had the US media operated as it does today. Nonetheless, we publish this report because it shows the dangers a soldier faces.

  • Agencies report 7 US soldiers were killed, 1 is missing, and 3 are wounded after an explosion at an ammunition cache they were working near. The explosion occurred near Ghazni, Afghanistan. CNN says no cause has as yet been determined.

  • AFP and Arabnews.com say 5 Saudi security officers and the father of an arrested militant were killed during a raid in Riyadh. The security officers and the father had gone to the militant's residence, and weapons were recovered there. As they left they came under fire from unknown persons. Arabnews.com is more definite about the persons, calling them militants, several of whom were arrested in sweeps following the incident.

  • BBC says its director-general of news has also resigned, after the departure of its chairman, and acting chairman has issued an unqualified apology to Prime Minister Blair over the BBC's reporting of the scientist who committed suicide after the WMD issue was blown up by BBC. Mr. Blair has accepted the apology. We are not Anglophiles, but cannot help noting that a number of other countries in the western world could do well to emulate the high standard of public service shown by the inquiry judge and the BBC.

  • BBC says Iraq has rescinded the ban imposed on the TV company Al Arabiya. The company in the name of impartiality, had broadcast a tape purporting to be of Saddam Hussein calling for resistance to US forces in Iraq. Western media watchdog groups had criticized the ban, and we remain unclear why. It is not as if Saddam is a national hero resisting evil occupiers of Iraq.

  • Haaretz of Israel says Tel Aviv will not respond harshly to the latest suicide bombing which killed 10 Israelis. Meanwhile, Orbat.com needs to explain why we haven't covered the prisoner exchange that has been all the news recently in Israel. Quite simply, we don't understand why the Israelis are handing over 450+ prisoners - many of whom the Israelis know will resume their war against Israel - in exchange for the remains of three soldiers and a businessman. Moreover, a businessman the authorities say they wish to interrogate for improper activities. In fairness, there have been rumors since Mr. Tennenbaum was kidnapped 3 years ago that he is an Israeli intelligence officer. Can readers enlighten us what became of these allegations?

  • News of the Absurd As an example of the convolutions Pakistani officials are undergoing on the N-export scandal, Pakistan's Interior Minister says Dr. AQ Khan, identified several times by a multitude of sources and officials in the media as the main accused, is NOT a suspect. The minister suspects the "dirty hands" of the West are involved in the N-export, and they will be exposed. We publish this as a counterbalance to the many stories we've carried about Indian officials who speak first and think later. As far as we know - and we may know nothing, being from Iowa - Libya and Iran are not western nations, nor did they need westerners to put them in touch with Dr. Khan, and nor did westerners force Iran to name Pakistani nuclear officials. We suppose it is progress of a sort that the Interior Minister is not blaming the CIA by name.

  • News of the Weirdly Absurd This story has nothing to do with strategic affairs or the War on Terror, but it provides an insight into how India, a major and staunch ally of the US in the terror war, sometimes functions. Times of India says that a magistrate [first rung of the Indian judiciary] issued arrest warrants against the President of India, the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, a sitting judge of the Supreme Court, and the former head of the Supreme Court Bar Association. He did so after accepting $850 from a muckraking Zee TV journalist who used 3 lawyers as the middlemen and gave them the names. Neither the lawyers nor the judge recognized the names on the warrants - presumably the judge merely reached over and put his signature on a bunch of forms with one hand while counting the money with the other. A lawyer for the TV journalist presented the warrants to the Supreme Court. As may be imagined, India is in an uproar, with people asking if this can happen to the top officials of India, what chance does a common man have if someone comes gunning for him? Moreover, this transaction took place in a state which is more corruption free than most Indian states. Your editor has nothing against people taking bribes, but for the Divine's sake, can't his fellow Indians  set a proper price, thus not disgracing every Indian? The journalist says if he had bargained the price would have come down. The money might pay a month's rent for a nice 3-bedroom apartment in an upscale locality in Delhi. Lawyers showed their gratitude at the exposure of their corrupt colleagues by beating up the nearest Zee TV person they could lay hands on.

 

 

0001 GMT January 29, 2004

  • British Prime Minister Tony Blair has survived two domestic crises that could have forced him to resign. He narrowly won approval of a bill to raise university tuitions despite 72 members of his party voting against. And his government  has been exonerated in the independent  inquiry  over a British scientist's suicide, linked to the WMD imbroglio. The director of the BBC has immediately resigned as the inquiry blasted the company's handling of the story and its allegations that the Prime Minister was in some way involved in the scientist's death.

  • Newsweek reports that US 4th MechDiv is now fighting several insurgencies each with its own motives. An increasing motive is the tribal tradition of revenge for deaths inflicted on the tribe. The division's morale is very high, says Newsweek, despite the situation, possibly because the division is to leave in April, and also because it is becoming increasingly good at its CI job. [Orbat.com wonders what the tribes did during Mr. Hussein's rule to avenge deaths caused by the government.]

  • Haaretz of Israel says the IDF raided Palestine territory after the Netzarim settlement came under rocket attack. Four Islamic Jihad and one Hamas fighter were killed, along with three civilians caught in the crossfire. Seven civilians have been seriously wounded. The IDF admits the possibility that some of the civilian casualties were caused by its fire.  [Orbat.com note: The density of built-up space on the Palestine side and the militant habit of taking cover behind civilians leads to both sides killing and wounding civilians.]

  • NPR reports David Kay, who recently resigned as chief of the US WMD team in Iraq, testified in Congress yesterday to say that given the intelligence available to the west, it was inevitable a conclusion would arise that Mr. Saddam Hussein posed a WMD threat. He has expressed concern about the state of US intelligence on the issue, but a Washington Post op-ed notes that Saddam himself may have been misinformed about his own WMD by his scientists, and so it would be understandable if wrong information was being made available to the west. Incidentally, Mr. Kay says there is no doubt that after 1998 Iraq became totally "corrupt" with regard to WMDs and he has said hundreds of cases have been found of attempts to conceal details of the country's WMD programs.

  •  To Orbat.com's mind, that would explain why Saddam kept "hiding" the weapons though in reality he had nothing to hide. And of course to have given the UN free rein to "find" the non-existent WMDs would have been impossible as intrusive inspections would have jeopardized his domestic aura of invincibility and weakened his external defense against Iraq's enemies. Odd as this situation seems, we have to remember that Mr. Hussein did not like to hear bad news: the punishment inflicted on Iraq's soccer team for losing its match overseas seemed comical at the time, but it was just another example of how people who lost favor with Saddam and his family were treated, no matter how insignificant the issue.

  • We would like to take this opportunity to put to our readers that, in a somewhat similar vein, Pakistan's nuclear program was for many years exaggerated by Dr. AQ Khan to get more money and to promote himself, and that the program to this day is not as advanced as most think. In 1988, after a 4-year study, your editor concluded Pakistan would not get a working bomb till 2005, and that it would be a plutonium bomb, not a uranium one. After 9/11 Pakistan's nuclear program has been checked by the United States so we cannot any more say if the 2005 date applies, but certainly before 9/11 Pakistan was on track to have 1-3 working bombs by that year.

  • CNN says the US plans a spring offensive in Afghanistan and preparations are underway. The winter offensive Avalanche, intended to prevent Taliban fighters from "hunkering down" for the winter is still underway. The spring offensive will aim at disrupting the Taliban's ability to combine small groups into larger ones. CNN quotes the Chicago Tribune as saying the offensive will enter Pakistan: the US is said to have become concerned at attempts to kill the Pakistan president and at the spate of killings in Afghanistan said to be the work of Pakistan-based militants.

 

0130 GMT January 28, 2004

Former Pakistan Army Chief Denies He Agreed To N-Technology Exports

  • Agencies say the former Pakistan Army Chief who served from 1988-91, the period during which some of Pakistan's clandestine nuclear technology exports have said to have taken place, allegedly with his approval, has denied he was aware of any such transfers.

  • Meanwhile reader Paul Danish writes in with a brief note saying that it is not credible for the Pakistan Government to blame a rouge scientist for the transfers at least until the accused scientist himself admits in a fair trial he acted on his own. He reminds us Prime Minister ZA Bhutto was hanged allegedly for corruption, and asks if a death penalty threat might motivate Dr. AQ Khan to take the fall. Despite our confident pronouncements on Pakistan, we do not know enough about its domestic laws to give an intelligent answer, so we welcome comments. We do know treason is punishable by death in Pakistan; that might motivate Dr. Khan to accept the blame. The corruption charges as such would lead to some serious jail time, in our opinion, but as far as we know, not to a death sentence. The execution of Prime Minister Bhutto was, of course, judicial murder at the behest of a dictator, and right now, at least, Pakistan is a democratic state. Thoughts? Opinions? Facts? Please send them to us.

  • Times of India reports the Indian Parliament will be dissolved February 6 ahead of general elections. The elections will serve, among other things, as referendum on the Prime Minister's rapprochement with Pakistan, something that is wildly popular in India. Meanwhile, the Indian Home Minister says he will not agree to a demand by Kashmiri moderates including the ruling party for a ceasefire prior to negotiations with extremists. He says when the last ceasefire was announced, for 6 months in 2000, the extremists took advantage of it to strengthen their position.

  • Military.com says 3 US Marines accused of beating a prisoner who later died go on trial at Camp Pendleton, CA; a 4th accused has turned witness for the Corps. The prisoner was a senior Baath official who was found in custody of an M-16 rifle belonging to the 507th Transportation Company of Jessica Lynch fame; apparently the accused lost their composure when the rifle was found.

  • Arabnews.com carries an article by the editor of the Oman Times saying the morale of US soldiers in Iraq is low and suicides are skyrocketing because the soldiers now know they were lied to and are in Iraq for no good reason. American protestors are filling the street and the President is under tremendous pressure to leave Iraq. [Orbat.com carries this story because it is useful to always look at what the "other side" is thinking. In reality, morale among US combat troops is reported extremely high, with soldiers convinced they are helping Iraq. Morale among reserve units is lower for reasons that have little to do with their feelings about Iraq as a just or an unjust cause and more about their service conditions.]

  • Meanwhile, agencies say Human Rights Watch has decided the US intervention in Iraq was not justified on humanitarian grounds because Saddam's crimes were committed over a long period prior to the invasion. Intervention when the Kurds were being killed would have been justified, says the organization.

  • Orbat.com sighs and says the organization is undoubtedly right, but why does it think that WMDs and humanitarian motives are what drove the US into Iraq? There is something called geopolitics, and no doubt the peoples of today's democracies react badly when faced with its ugly realities. So democratic leaders have to lie. The issue is a bit more complex than simply blasting the government's statements. In any case, from all accounts the great majority of Iraqis are happy that the US invaded and freed them from a tyrant. Governments are not always wrong in their geopolitical imperatives.

  • Washington Times reports that the Iraq coalition has made arrangements for the safety of oil pipelines in S Iraq and that exports from the region could lead to exceeding Iraq's oil export targets for 2004.

  • BBC says the US has again called for fair, free and transparent elections in Algeria and for the lifting of the 10-year emergency imposed on account of Islamic extremist attacks. Orbat.com congratulates the US for standing by its democratic principles even as the possibility exists the outcome of a free election in Algeria may strengthen Islamic militant parties - something which is not to the US's interests.

 

0200 GMT January 27, 2004

0130 GMT January 27, 2004

President Karzai Ratifies Afghan Constitution

  • In a historic event of democratic nation building fostered by the international community, Times of India reports President Karzai signed into law the 162 article Afghan constitution recently agreed on by a loya jirga. Because of security concerns, however, only 5% of those eligible to vote in the upcoming presidential election have been registered. Mr. Karzai is expected to win.

  • Times of India says the Pakistan Government will freeze the foreign assets of Dr. AQ Khan, the "father of the Pakistan bomb" and currently advisor to the President. Meanwhile, a UN disarmament official has said,  in effect, that the Pakistan Government is hiding behind individuals in the proliferation scandal.

  • Orbat.com note We are told that Dr. A.Q. Khan was definitely acting on his government's orders when he transferred nuclear technology. He was, in fact, himself behind the proposal. Nonetheless, as has been true of Dr. Khan since his student days in Western Europe, he could not resist the urge to personally enrich himself. The mere possession of foreign bank accounts by an official like Dr. Khan is a serious criminal offense. His trial will be managed in a manner that he is not allowed to implicate anyone in the proliferation scandal. The Official Secrets Act permits the court process to be closed. Also, Dr. Khan exceeded his brief, making private deals. Overinvocing of imported parts for the nuclear weapons program is being held against Dr. Khan and his subordinates. The example is given of dies for the Ghauri missile, which were invoiced at 1000% over cost by the frontman supplier who set up an export company overseas with Dr. Khan's involvement, and the extra money was deposited overseas. This kind of corruption, however, has been rampant in the Pakistan nuclear program from the start and is not the exclusive preserve of Dr. Khan. We regret we are unable to source our information.

  • IRNA of Iran reports that yesterday President Khatami of Iran [we have at times mistakenly referred to him as Prime Minister] refused to accept the resignations of several ministers angry over the Guardians Council's stand on elections. Though he still trying to mediate between the GC and the reformers, BBC says his position has hardened in the absence of any real moves by the GC to break the impasse. several reports say the government may refuse to hold elections to protest the GC's bans. Meanwhile, Iranian journalists have protested the official TV blackout on the crisis.

  • Washington Times says US officials suspect there is a mole inside the Baghdad HQ. Insurgents seem to have much too accurate information about convoy movements and at times even about helicopter flight routes. Consideration is being given to setting up a special counter-intelligence effort.

 

Iran Parliament Challenges Guardian Council, Council Fires Back

  • The already tense stand-off between the reformist Iranian parliament and the conservative Guardians Council worsened yesterday. IRNA of Iran reports that parliament used its powers to pass - for the first time since the 1970 revolution - a triple urgency bill that forbids disqualification of any MP from reelection unless s/he is convicted of a criminal offense, and forbids disqualification other than on Iran's common law - religious law is not to be invoked. [This story is fourth in IRNA headlines, the first is the dedication of the new Ayatollah Khomeini IAP.]

  • BBC reports the Guardian's Council has rejected the amendments. The agency says Iranians are generally apathetic about the tussle between the reformers and conservatives, believing they can do little to affect the outcome. The reformers believe the public will be outraged at the GC's actions and support them, but this has not happened so far. Meanwhile, BBC says Ayatollah Khameni, head of the GC, understands Iran's Islamic system is in danger because of the GC's actions, but may not be willing to distance himself from the conservative elements who make up his power base.

  • Haaretz of Israel says a new attorney-general has been sworn in. His appointment was approved by 20 of 23 cabinet ministers; one voted against; two - Mr. Sharon included - face possible indictments and recused themselves from the vote. The new Israeli AG says he is determined to show his office's independence and will not be attending cabinet meetings as a matter of course to prove separation. His first and most difficult decision will be a possible Sharon indictment, a move backed by the Deputy Attorney General and much of the office's staff.

  • BBC says that the Taliban finance officer and close associate of Mullah Omar has been arrested at Chaman, the border crossing near Quetta. Pakistan border officials say he is in custody. BBC says Kabul may ask for his extradition, and that Pakistan sources say no decision has been made to hand him over to the US.

  • AP reports that the commander of 4th MechDiv says the insurgency has been "brought to its knees" by the capture of Saddam Hussein.

  • World Net Daily says Al-Qaeda has directed its operatives to leave Iraq because of the backlash generated by its terrorism against Iraqis. [Thanks to reader Marc Webster for the item.]
     

 

0400 GMT January 25, 2004

Top Pakistan Nuclear Scientist Ordered Confined To Islamabad

  • Jang of Pakistan says the Pakistan Government has confined Dr. AQ Khan to Islamabad while it continues his interrogation over illegal nuclear technology transfers. He is currently science advisor to President Musharraf, but is better known as the Father of the Pakistan Bomb. President Musharraf will decide on Dr. Khan's continuation in the position on his return from the Davos conference in Switzerland. Meanwhile, his wife who was to get a civilian awarded has been informed the award has been rescinded.

  • Jang also says that foreign bank accounts worth millions of dollars have been discovered in the name of two nuclear scientists. Sources say this is an open and shut case.

  • Reuters says the United States has begun transporting nuclear material including uranium out of Libya to Oak Ridge, Tennessee.

  • BBC says US Secretary of State Colin Powell told reporters traveling with him to Republic of Georgia that there are serious doubts if Saddam Hussein had produced WMDs after Gulf I. This is a significant concession that comes in the wake of former WMD head inspector David Kay's statement that he has not seen any evidence of Iraqi chemical  weapons. Mr. Kay has had no comment on Iraq's nuclear program.

  • BBC says Iraq's Guardian's Council has removed election participation bans against more candidates. The total is now 350, but that still leaves 90% of the banned candidates in an uncertain position. The GC is attempting to ensure more conservatives get elected to Parliament, to reverse the conservative decline in the 2000 election.

  • Haaretz of Israel reports Saudi Arabia has proposed a plan with Arab states' backing that calls for a permanent peace settlement with Israel. Tel Aviv will withdraw to Israel's 1967 borders; of the 4 million Palestine refugees, two million will live in a new Palestine state and Arab states will absorb the rest. No Arab state is to take refugees totaling more than 10% of its population, and refugees are to be compensated for their suffering. [Orbat.com has no idea how serious this proposal is, but clearly it is one that could lead to peace in the Mideast.]

 

0330 GMT January 24, 2004

Pakistan Illegal N-Technology Transfer Investigation  Focuses on "Father of the Pak Bomb" Dr AQ Khan

  • Jang correspondent Kamran Khan reports the Pakistan government has determined that while President Zia-ul-Haq had approved nuclear cooperation with Iran, he had instructed this was to be strictly on civil issues. At least one scientist is likely to be charged for exceeding this brief. More importantly, it seems Dr. A.Q. Khan has been responsible for selling technology, though ti is too early to make a determination. The number of his close associates who are under detention and being questioned indicates, however, that Dr. Khan's "fate hangs in the balance"

  • Jang of Pakistan says President Musharraf denies Pakistan government has transferred nuclear weapons technology to another  country, but says he will act against any individual found to have done so for personal gain.

  • Haartez of Israel says associates of Prime Minister Sharon say he will resign if indicted: this contradicts reports saying Mr. Sharon has stated he will not resign even if indicted.

  • Meanwhile, Haaretz says a senior Likud official is asking why the acting attorney general has filed charges 4 days before a new appointee is to take over. It would have been more appropriate for the acting attorney general to indict the businessman, and then leave action against the Prime Minister to her successor. The sources feels this is a politically motivated  attempt to force Mr. Sharon to resign.

  • CNN reports Mr. Ahmed Chalabi, former exiled Iraq opposition leader and now member of the Governing Council, has disassociated himself from the GC decision to first have provincial caucuses elect an interim government. He previously supported the decision, but now wants direct elections.

  • We reproduce a press release from CENTCOM concerning one day in the life of 4th MechDiv. This release particularly illustrates the nature of CI operations. You have to work very, very hard each and every day, usually with little to show for your effort:

TIKRIT, Iraq - Soldiers from the 4th Infantry Division and Task Force Ironhorse have, over the past 24 hours, conducted 184 patrols, eight raids and captured 31 individuals.

Thirteen of the patrols were joint operations conducted with the Iraqi Police, the Iraqi Civil Defense Corps and the Border Guard in order to continually improve the safety and standard of living for the Iraqi people.

Weapons and equipment confiscated in raids and patrols throughout the Task Force Ironhorse area of operations include 10 AK-47 assault rifles, one machine gun, one rifle, two shotguns, five pistols, five rocket-propelled grenade launchers, one RPG, one mortar round, one SK-5 rocket and five improvised explosive devices.


 

0400 GMT January 23, 2004

  • Agencies report that in a historic rapprochement the leaders of secessionist Kashmir most important political party have agreed, in talks with the Indian Home Minister, to start negotiations on an end to the insurgency. The Kashmiri leaders will meet the Indian Prime Minister today in another historic move. Observers warn that this is just a start along a rocky and treacherous road. For example, India has reiterated that Kashmir is an integral part of the Union, whereas extremist splinter groups from the Kashmiri party have vowed to fight on. Pakistan based militant groups had also refused earlier to negotiations.

  • Haaretz of Israel reports Prime Minister Sharon as saying he will not reign even if indicted in the bribery scandal. Debka.com says that after 4 years of investigation the police have not found evidence against Mr. Sharon, his son, and Mr. Sharon's deputy who was a go-between. Israeli prosecutors, however, say they a very strong case and hope to start interrogating the Prime Minister in a few days.

  • BBC says Iranian Prime Minister spoke directly to an Israeli reporter at Davos, Switzerland conference, stunning Arab reporters. Mr. Khatemi says Iran wants peaceful relations with Israel but cannot condone the illegal occupation of Palestinian land.

  • Meanwhile, IRNA of Iran does not carry this news in the headline section of its web edition. Eleven stories are reported, four to do with the Prime Minister.

  • CENTCOM says 1st Armd Div and Iraqis are training 100 security officers for a Diplomatic Protection Service. Because of the nature of the work, a through security vetting is done. Eight women officers are included. After emphasizing the sensitiveness of the job, CENTCOM says without any apparent irony that the training period is five days.

  • CNN says the United States and Shia Ayatollah Sistani have both indicated a compromise may be possible in the dispute over Iraqi officials. The US is sticking to its two-step proposal, where caucuses from the 18 provinces would elect an interim government, to be followed by general elections. The common ground comes because both the US and the Ayatollah have said they have faith in the UN's judgment on on if the early elections sought by the Shias are possible. The UN, incidentally, is doing its own bargaining with the US and has not formally accepted the role that the US and the Shias are thrusting on it.

 

0330 GMT January 22, 2004

Iran Political Crisis Worsens Again

  • IRNA of Iran says that several ministers have resigned. Prime Minister Khatami says he will continue, and expects the ministers to keep doing their work till the Guardian Council gives its final ruling on permitting freedom for anyone to stand for elected office. Meanwhile, it appears the beginnings of a compromise we reported yesterday, when the GC says it had permitted 200 of those disbarred to stand, turns out to be no compromise at all. The 200 do not include any of 80 MPs disqualified by the GC, which is what started the crisis.

  • Jang of Pakistan says 3 nuclear scientists have been released after debriefing. Others are still being held, and as nearly as we can make out, these total 7. We were under the impression 8 persons were in custody, not it turns out it was 10. A Pakistan Government spokesperson soothingly said the Government was undertaking this exercise to satisfy the IAEA no illegal acts have been committed by Pakistani nuclear officials. The detentions are not an effort to rein in Pakistan's nuclear program, something on which Pakistan will never compromise. The families of the 3 officials were permitted to meet them while the officials were in custody; other families will be allowed to meet detained officials within a few days. This underlines, Orbat.com feels, the extensive and thorough "debriefing" the officials are receiving. Pakistan is either genuinely anxious to stop illegal technology transfers, or its is undertaking a big "shredding" operation to sanitize the situation before inviting the IAEA to assure itself all is well, and that the people who were guilty have been punished.

  • Sources say the admission of an Israeli business person that he bribed Prime Minister Sharon may lead to an investigation against Mr. Sharon and force his resignation. We apologize to our readers that we did not fully understand the import of these reports. We thought the issue was someone bribed Mr. Sharon's son and the opposition was hoping some dirty would stick to him. This is a fairly common occurrence in Indian politics, and in Israeli politics. Nothing seems to come out of the allegation. The situation is much more serious than we thought.

0230 GMT January 21, 2004

  • Haartez of Israel says two Is.AF fighters launched 3 ASMs at two Hezbollah camps in S Lebanon after Hezbollah killed an Israeli soldier clearing mines at the Israel-Lebanon border. The Israeli division commander says that the width of the D9 'dozer's blade meant that while it was clearing, at one point one edge of the blade was a meter or so into Lebanese territory. Hezbollah says it attacked the 'dozer as once it was in Lebanon it was a legitimate target, and that it will not be deterred by the air strikes.

  • IRNA of Iran reports that the Guardian Council has reversed the disqualifications of 200 aspirants for the 7th Parliamentary election. Meanwhile, an Iranian political party says it will not participate in a ceremonial election where the winners are decided in advance of polling.

  • Agencies say Indian and Russia have signed a $1.6 billion arms deal centered around the Russian carrier Gorshkov, plus fighters and helicopters for the ship. Orbat.com has been told that the carrier's machinery - which is what matters - is in excellent shape despite years of neglect, and that the deal took so long to finalize because the Russians, as is their usual tendency, kept loading unjustified, unreasonable, and exorbitant costs on to the deal, and because they were unable to deliver many parts of the deal on time due to the disarray in the Russian defense production establishments. BBC says the deal includes 12 carrier-borne versions of the MiG-29. This looks like an initial batch, clearly the eventual cost of the deal will be higher. The ship is to be delivered to India in 2008. We assume it will be named INS Vikrant, after India's first aircraft carrier.

  • Xinhua of China says the first batch of 60 peacekeeper troops left for Liberia yesterday. The contingent will number 550, and will include a transport company (240 troops), a sapper company (275 troops) and a hospital (35 troops). The contingent will have 178 vehicles.

  • BBC says the agreement was made after Liberia recognized Beijing as the legitimate government of China is place of ROC.

  • Meanwhile, Xinhua says China's economy grew at 9.1% in 2003. Xinhua also tells us there are now 50,000 private cars in Tibet. Your editor recalls being told in the late 1960s that there were 200 non-military vehicles in the whole of Tibet.

 

0001 GMT January 20, 2004

  • Atlantic Monthly January 2004 says the CIA, during war games for the invasion of Iraq, correctly anticipated civil unrest in Baghdad and the difficulties of keeping Iraq united once Saddam was gone. The magazine says everyone involved in the games knew the disbanding of the Iraq Army would lead to trouble. Orbat.com comment: so once again we have the civilian superstars in the US national security establishment  riding to victory on the back of the military while doing everything possible to make the military's job harder. It seems no problem that has arisen after the fall of Baghdad was unanticipated by the planners, but the civilians did not listen to anyone. This sort of thing is quite common in India, but we honestly thought that  after the Vietnam War American national security civilians  had wised up a bit. Apparently not.

  • CNN reports 100,000 Shia's demonstrate for direct election

  • IRNA of Iran reports that a number of clerics from Qom, the most important Islamic seminary in Iran, tried to meet with demonstrating reform MPs in Parliament but were barred from entering. The clerics demanded a free election be held. [Orbat.com has no clue as to how important the clerics who gave their support to the reformers are.]

  • Haartez of Israel reports that the Israeli ambassador to Stockholm refused to apologize for his actions at the art exhibit when called to the Foreign Ministry. The Ministry did not reprimand him and said it hoped he would participate as planned in the genocide conference that the exhibit is part of. Israel too has said it wants to put the blowup behind it.

  • Time Asia reports that Jaish-i-Muhammad, the Kashmir militant group that tried to kill President Musharraf of Pakistan, is closely linked with Al Qaeda. This was known to Pakistan, but it tolerated the group to assuage the Islamic extremists in Pakistan. Since the December 25, 2003 attack, however, Pakistan has gone on the offensive against this group. Time quotes an informed source as saying the 'jihadis' [Pakistan based Kashmir 'freedom fighters'] don't understand that the jihad Kashmir is over and they are out of control.  The memory card of one of the December 25 car bombers was recovered intact and security authorities were able to trace calls back to dozens of militants.

 

0330 GMT January 19, 2004

Pakistan "Debriefing" 8 Nuclear Officers

  • Jang of Pakistan reports that Pakistan is "debriefing" eight officers associated with its nuclear program. Arrested on Saturday and Sunday, they include a retired army major general who was Principal Staff Officer to Dr. A. Q. Khan, the former head of the Pakistan nuclear program, a brigadier who was an administrator at the Kahuta Research Labs,  and two scientists at the Kahuta uranium enrichment facilities. Officials emphasize they have no arrested any one, but the wife of one of the officers say she has had no contact with him since he was detained.

  • Israel and Sweden are working to defuse the row that exploded over the Israeli ambassador to Stockholm vandalizing what he said was an exhibit glorifying anti-Israeli terror. Your editor recognizes this story may not be as interesting to many of your readers as to him, so he suggests those wanting more details, click Haaretz for a complete account of events on Sunday.

  • Haartez and other media says that Israeli Government recognizes the West Bank fence may not pass world Court scrutiny, and that the government is prepared to modify the fence to reduce hardship to Palestinians.

  • IRNA of Iran says the Guardian Council is expected to comply strictly with Ayatollah Khameni's instruction to reconsider the ban on several thousand election candidates. Orbat.com suggests that this does not mean the crisis is over. Mr. Khameni has asked to Guardians Council to be less strict about the ban, not to let everyone who wants stand. A leader for the reformers says that they are in no mood to compromise and will not accept any conditions on who should or should not be permitted to stand.

  • AP says the Danish Army has announced that tests in the US on the 36 120mm mortar shells found by its troops in Iraq contain no signs of WMDs.

  • Reuters reports one killed, five wounded by Haiti pro-Government gunmen firing on anti-government demonstrators.

  • BBC says  last week UN Ethiopian troops arrived in Zwerdu, Eastern Liberia, establishing an international presence in the region for the first time. Nonetheless, BBC says the UN troops are overstretched, and till now attempts to disarm 40,000 Liberian fighters have had only slight success.

 

0200 GMT January 18, 2004

Iran Election Chief Threatens Resignation

  • AFP reports that the government official in charge of Iranian elections has said he will quit ahead of the poll due February 20 if the Guardian's Council does not rescind its ban on candidates. The prospects for a compromise between reformers and conservatives seemed good two days ago, with Ayatollah Khameni instructing the Council to be less stringent on its ban. Yesterday, however, trouble flared anew when it was learned the Council has rejected the computerized vote-tally system put in place and will count the vote using its own officials. AFP says that while the election chief has said the poll will be carried out without him, it is possible unless he changes his mind the poll will not be held at all.

  • Agencies say the 500th US soldier has been killed in Iraq. Orbat.com's younger readers may be interested to know that was a typical weekly figure in Vietnam in 1968. We accept that being killed is not a welcome prospect to most people. Nonetheless,  the 500th American to die in Iraq at least gave his life for a good and just cause, unlike in Vietnam, where the 500th, 5000th, and 50000th gave their lives for nothing.

  • In Kashmir 3 Indian soldiers and 2 border guards were killed yesterday as against 7 militants. This is an unusually bad exchange rate that has not been seen for some time. One of the army men killed was a major conducting a raid based on information. [An Indian infantry battalion typically functions with many fewer officers than a western one. It is not unusual for CI Battalions to operate with 12-20 officers. It is, however, quite usual for the few officers present to insist on leading raids and dangerous missions themselves. We have no figures on the percentage loss of officers in Kashmir but are told it is extraordinarily high.

  • An unusual and potentially explosive diplomatic row has erupted between Sweden and Israel. At a genocide art exhibit in Stockholm, the Israeli ambassador to Sweden took offence at an entry by an Israeli and disconnected some lighting. He was escorted out of the exhibit and will be called to the Swedish Foreign Ministry on Monday. The exhibit has a model boat carrying a picture of the woman suicide bomber who killed 21 Jews and Arabs floating in blood red water. The ambassador, who is being backed to the hilt by Tel Aviv, said terror incited in the name of free speech was unacceptable. Haartez of Israel says the 20 exhibits include 3 depicting the Palestine view, but an entry depicting Israel's view was pulled under pressure from Syria. Debka.com explains, somewhat unclearly, that the symbol of blood shed by Jews is particularly offensive to Jews because exhibits by anti-Semites built around the theme have been the precursor to massacres of Jews.

  • CENTCOM says 101st AA Div formally handed over security in NW Iraq to 1/14th Cavalry, a unit with the Stryker brigade taking over from the division. Incidentally, the Stryker combat vehicle family is said to be named after two Medal of Honor winners with the last name Stryker.

 

0300 GMT January 17, 2004

Iraq Shias Intensify Demand For June Direct Election

  • Washington Post reports the Shias are intensifying their demand for early direct elections. US is said to be willing to make accommodations but not to change the basic plan. Shia sources have started making threats against the US if their demands are not conceded. At the same time, it is said that 2/3rds of Iraqis polled in three major cities want the US to stay; also, UN Secretary General has said early direct vote is not feasible. UN said to have no enthusiasm for election job which US is trying now to hand off, mainly because UN has no power to enforce its decisions.

  • Washington Post also says that the ruling council has voted to rescind women's rights and to bring them in line with conservative practice under Shia pressure. Iraq has had, for many decades, a liberal approach to women's rights and Saddam never tampered with these rights.

  • Orbat.com opinion: Meanwhile, our  reading of various sources is that if the Shias insist on having their way, the country will fall into civil war. we think the Shias will not win the civil war. The US and all neighboring countries that do not want Shia clerical rule willl aid the Kurds, and even the US is quite capable of turning around to aid the Sunnis if need be. The Shias find it quite easy to push the US around in Iraq, but it might be best for them to remember that while this generation of US diplomats and generals is very sensitive to the will of the people and the need to respect the religious rights of other people, there is a limit to what the US will take. A clerical Shia run Iraq is not part of the US game plan for the Middle East. As for what the US can do about blocking the clerics, we feel its best not to underestimate the US. Obvious examples of US power - when its interests are at stake - abound in the Mideast.

  • Arabnews.com reports the Israeli Deputy Minister for Defense has warned that Sheikh Yassin, the founder and spiritual leader of Hamas, is marked for death after the latest suicide bombing which killed 3 Israeli soldiers. He "softened" his comments later by saying no decision to kill the Sheikh has been taken. The Sheikh has been moving around openly - he is wheel-chair bound - and says he does not fear death. He denies he is involved in planning suicide bombings.

  • Meanwhile, Debka.com says the married woman bomber who blew herself up at an Israeli checkpoint, and who also is the mother of two, was encouraged by her husband who wanted to get rid of her to marry another woman. The Palestinians themselves appear to be shocked and upset according to Debka.

  • Jang of Pakistan says that the Waziri tribals have handed over 5 more wanted men to the Pakistan authorities, making a total of 20 of 57 wanted. The sub-tribe that was acting somewhat unenthusiastically has turned over five wanted. In one case, a man surrendered in place of his brother who, he said, had gone on an errand and would be back to give himself up. Orbat.com has carried many stories on this issue to give readers an idea, however shallow, of life in Pakistan's tribal belt. The rules of society are quite different in that part of the world.

  • Jang also reports that 18 Pakistan Army brigadiers have been cleared for promotion to major general. They have been chosen from the 104 officers who became brigadiers out of the 800 officers commissioned in 1974 and 1975.

  • Times of India says India and Pakistan are holding meetings to formalize the agenda for substantive discussions on all outstanding issues.

  • Reuters reports that Israel has singed contracts with Boeing to double the rate of Arrow ABM interceptors and funding is expected to be provided in the US DOD FY 2005 budget for the US contribution. Israel is said to have 200 Arrows, and the joint US-Israeli program is said to have yielded payoffs for the US in its own ABM programs. The missile is said to cost "e3 million" and Orbat.com is not sure what the "e" stands for. If it is pounds or euros this would a very expensive missile if all it does is intercept incoming missiles at 50 km. Reuters refers to this distinctly tubby missile as "slender", we assume whoever briefed Reuters was being ironic.

  • CNN says that Iraqi scientists who gave information on their country's WMD programs were murdered. This happened during the early stages of the war and occupation. In one case a cooperating Iraq scientist was killed just hours after he left an interrogation. Computer hard drives are said to have been stolen just as US was closing in on specified targets.

  • CENTCOM says US military has opened an investigation into reports US troops mistreated prisoners. Three Guard MPs have already been punished for one particular incident and a well-regarded battalion commander was almost cashiered for firing his pistol next to a prisoner's ear as the CO attempted to get the man to tell where ambushes were being laid.

  • Orbat.com opinion: Its at times like this your editor sighs a bit. He can personally assure readers that had these prisoners been taken by either the Indian or Pakistan Armies, kicking in the groin and head for a few minutes would constitute the equivalent of a kiss on the nose. [Indeed, because neither the Indian or Pakistani armies have MP units to hold POWs for transportation to the rear, its likely that the behavior above would, in many cases, be the best outcome the prisoner could hope for.] Ditto for just about most armies one can name.  Nonetheless, one has to admire the US military's determination to ensure adherence to the Geneva Convention, even if helps that this was hardly a difficult war for the Americans.

 

0130 GMT January 16, 2004

  • BBC reports US has dispatched a military advisory team to Mauritania as part of a program to help the Sahel countries combat terrorism. The other countries in the Pan-Sahel initiative are Chad, Niger, and Mali. BBC says the very remoteness of these countries is attracting Islamic terrorists, as is the usual combination of many young men with no real job prospects.

  • There are no new developments in the Iran election crisis. For an excellent backgrounder  read BBC.

  • CNN reports the second most powerful Shia cleric in Iraq has said, essentially, he does not trust the US and UK to ensure a fair handover of power, and insists an immediate election is needed. He says Mr. Bremer's saying that the infrastructure needed for immediate elections was lacking was an excuse to deny power to the people. [Orbat.com comment: Undoubtedly the Shia clerics want an immediate election because a later date will make it harder for them to seize power in Iraq. Nonetheless, given the American record on vital matters like security, power, jobs, and pensions, it's easy to see why many Iraqis do not take the US at its word on the elections.]

  • CNN also says the program to bring in a new Iraqi currency is doing well. Ten thousand tons of the old banknotes are to destroyed, and the new notes have enabled the dinar to strengthen against the dollar by 25% in the past few months. Now 1000 dinars equals $1. [Your editor seems to recall when he last visited Iraq in the late 1960s, his dollars were accepted by taxis and merchants mainly to avoid insulting a guest rather than with any enthusiasm. If memory serves, the official rate of exchange was somewhere between $4 and $5 a dinar. Corrections are welcome.]

  • CENTCOM reports a pro-US demonstration by 1000 people took place yesterday at Ramadi, West of Baghdad.

  • Associated Press says tests of 5 120mm mortar shells from a cache of 36 discovered by the Danish Army in Iraq have tested negative for chemical warfare agents. This contradicts the field testing done on the shells. Definitive tests are to be conducted in the US. Locals say in 1984 there was a 7-day battle at the scene; when they returned they found their cattle dead and bodies all over the battlefield. They saw no signs of  bullet wounds, but the dead animals and soldiers had bled from the nose and mouth.

  • Christian Science Monitor says the single Stryker Brigade Combat Team replacing the entire 101st AA Div at Mosul will number 9,000 with attached units; nonetheless, we feel it noteworthy that 4-5 combat battalions will repalce 10+.

 

0330 GMT January 15, 2004

Supreme Leader Khameni Soften's Iraq Election Stand

  • Those of us wondering if at least the real revolution was about to come to Iran will be disappointed to learn that according to the BBC, the Guardian Council appears to be backing down. Mr. Khameni has said that if the barred parliamentarians are not suitable, seeing as they were elected by the people, they should be defeated by the people. He said he personally is prepared to support the 83 barred MPs. Simultaneously, referring to the reformists protesting the bans, he said that coercion in this matter cannot be permitted. His words are said by the BBC to provide a graceful way out for the Council.

  • CENTCOM says troops of the 720th MP Battalion, acting on Iraqi-provided information, detained 4 nephews of General Al-Duri, Number 6 on the Card list and the most important resistant on the loose. They are accused of providing help to their uncle and are under interrogation.

  • [Added 1100 GMT] CNN says that on information received, US has arrested Number 54 on card list. Khamis Sirhan is a Baath official enabling attacks against US forces; he was found at Ramadi W of Baghdad. 1/8th Infantry kills 8 suspected insurgents who opened fire at a patrol in the Samarra area and captured 26 others.

  • US Training and Doctrine Command announced that because of a shortage of Military Police units due to the mobilization of almost all of the National Guard's 92 MP companies, the US Army has begun retraining 14 Guard artillery batteries and 4 other company sized units to assume duties as provisional military police. Six of the 18 new companies have completed training, and will add 2200 MPs to the Guard's 15,000 - of which 12,000 are on duty, some for the second tour.

  • Jang of Pakistan reports that one Waziri sub-tribe has handed two more wanted men, bringing the total to five of 57. Apparently the big surrender anticipated for yesterday did not happen, as one of the two main tribal groups involved has not fully decided what it will do, even though it has formed a task force to apprehend the wanted men.

  • Bulgarian media says 60 soldiers from a 500 man Iraq-bound rotation battalion have resigned rather than accept deployment. The Army says it has a wait list of 140 volunteers for the rotation.

  • Haaretz of Israel reports that a US Senator who met President Assad of Syria last week says Mr. Assad  lacks the internal support to implement peace with Israel. He is being resisted by Baath hard liners.

  • BBC says a British activist has failed again in his effort to have a London court issue of warrant against Mr. Mugabe of Zimbabwe. The activist brought witnesses who spoke of being tortured. The magistrate ruled that as head of a state Mr. Mugabe had immunity from arrest.

  • [Added 1100 GMT] Orbat.com forgot to mention a crucial development in Cyprus: the breakaway Turkish Republic of North Cyprus, recognized by no country except Turkey, has a new government known to favor the UN plan for reunification of Cyprus. Apparently TRNC did not want to be left out of coming EU admittance of Greek Cyprus as it would be even more isolated than at present.

 

0200 GMT January 14, 2004

Iran Election Crisis Deepens

  • Agencies say that the reformist Prime Minister Khatmai has escalated the election crisis by saying his entire government will resign if the conservative Guardian Council does not rescind its ban on 3,000 candidates planning to stand for Iran's 7th general election. The Council is supposed to see that elections and the Government function under Islamic law as interpreted by the Council, and has cracked down on the reformers barring their candidates from running. The country's 26 provincial governors have already said they will resign in a week if the ban is not reversed. Agencies say the Council has lifted the ban on half the candidates barred, but this is not enough for the reformers, who talk about a civilian coup against the democratically elected government. The final  ist of candidates is to be released January 30.

  • Orbat.com was curious as to how IRNA, Iran's official news agency, would report the crisis. Of 11 lead stories on IRNA's website, the 2nd, 6th, and 7th concern the crisis and freely report the views of the reformers.

  • Jang of Pakistan reports that 3 wanted Waziri tribals wanted by the Pakistan government surrendered to their tribal chiefs and were handed over to the government. The government has given two lists of wanted men, 29 and 28, to the two tribal task forces created by the elders to find the men. Each task force is responsible for  the apprehension of men belonging to its tribal group. The men are being charged with sheltering foreign militants and engaging in violence against Pakistan forces. Several more surrenders are expected in a day.

  • Haiti is back in the news after years. Associated Press reports that  President Aristide is willing to discuss legislative assembly elections to be held in six months, but the opposition wants him to step down before that.

  • Haiti Background There has been an ongoing agitation for the last 4 months demanding President Aristide's resignation. His second term finishes in 2006, and he refuses to leave his position before that. The democracy that the US/UN worked for more than a decade ago has not come about, mainly because the president does not want democracy. Ironic, because he was the first democratically elected leader of the country, and was  restored by the US after his ouster by the army. This may be the first time the US has put back into power an avowed anti-American leader. Haiti remains a backward and poor nation, the president's corrupt, inefficient, and nepotistic rule has done nothing to help the people; it may even have worsened their lot.

 

0200 GMT January 13, 2004

  • South Waziristan tribals in Pakistan have formed two tribal task forces to hunt down 22 wanted men. The move came after the Pakistan Government met a jirga of 200 tribal leaders from the agency and warned that either the tribals do the job of rounding up the wanted men, or the Government would do it. In the recent attack on troops camped at Wana after searching for suspected militants, 4 Pakistan Army soldiers were killed, forcing the Government to take a tougher stand than it might normally.

  • While US News & World Report has the US Secretary of State saying the progress in Indo-Pakistan relations has been because of US intervention, Jang of Pakistan reports Pakistani sources as denying any US pressure either on India relations or rooting out militants from South Waziristan.

  • Orbat.com comment: the US has been laying the groundwork for about 10 years to massively intervene in the Kashmir dispute. The breaking of the log-jam in relations is entirely due to the US skillfully co-opting India and forcing Pakistan to the negotiating table. The manner in which the US took India out of the Soviet orbit, starting in the early 1980s, has never been publicly touted by the US for the enormous foreign policy success it is. The US foreign policy establishment is quite content to be bashed for its failures, actual or purported, by an ignorant press, while quietly racking up success after success since the fall of Saigon 28 years ago. Diplomacy works best behind the scenes, and the media's approach to news and analysis ensures that the successes are barely noted.

  • Times of India quotes Indian military sources as saying infiltration from Pakistan has gone down by one-third since the Kashmir ceasefire. The border is peaceful, unsurprisingly, because most firing incidents began when the Pakistan Army would use artillery and other fire to cover infiltration or exfiltration by Pakistan-based. Since Pakistan has clamped down on militants, it follows the border is no aflame in the daily duels that earlier took place between the two adversaries.

  • Haaretz of Israel says Prime Minister Sharon assured Parliament he would take no unilateral steps with regard to Palestine without first conducting a serious discussion in Parliament.

  • CENTCOM says 82nd Abn Div and 3rd ACR troops destroyed 3 weapons caches in Anbar province, including the largest single cache ever found. Before anyone starts feeling pleased, remember that estimates of munitions in Iraq range up to 1-million tons.

  • BBC says US rejects call by Iraq's Grand Ayatollah Sistani for elections before a handover of power. USA and Iraqi officials say given the conditions in the country, an election at this time is impossible. For one thing, there is no proper census available. Orbat.com wonders if Mr. Sistani is not playing some internal game of his own: he has said he will accept a UN ruling that elections are impossible at this time. Since the UN is unlikely to come to a conclusion different from what the US and the Governing Council say about conditions in Iraq, we feel Mr. Sistani knows full well elections cannot be held.

 

0130 GMT January 12, 2004

3000 Afghan National Army Soldiers Desert

  • ANA reports from Kabul that 3,000 Afghan soldiers in the National Army have deserted. In this case, Orbat.com opines, it was probably a good thing. ANA quotes Afghan sources as saying the warlords often sent their weakest men to the National Army, and they were unable to endure the harsh training. Money was also an issue: though the men got $60 a month plus a $7 a day food allowance, and an extra $60 a month when deployed in the field, many felt they could do better outside the Army. The sources say that now the true volunteers are left. [Thanks to contributor Gordon A. MacKinlay for the story.]

  • Times of India says an Islamabad Special Branch police officer has been arrested in connection with the December 25 attack against the Pakistani president, and the authorities believe the same people are behind the December 14 attack. The police officer was providing details on the President's convoy movements to militants from a banned Kashmir group; 10 of the JeM's men have also been arrested.

  • Meanwhile, Press Trust of India says last Thursday a pickup van breached the Pakistan President's convoy as the President was going through Islamabad on a national highway. Police gave chase but were unable to catch the van.

  • PTI also reports that the Pakistan President's security is being revamped along US lines. Six identical limos are being arranged, and thick curtains will prevent even the close-in security guards from knowing which limo the President enters. A military helicopter will provide air cover. Vulnerable road points between the President's residence and office are to be fenced off with steel fences. And the President is being urged to leave the Army Chief's house in Rawalpindi, where he prefers to live, and shift to the Presidential palace. This will substantially reduce his 40 km daily commute.

  • BBC reports that a major crisis has erupted in Iran because the Guardian Council, a deeply conservative body responsible for elections, has barred thousands of reformist candidates from running in the next election, including 80 of 290 Members of Parliament. The country's 27 provincial governors, who will administer the elections, have said they will resign next week if the ban is not rescinded, and the reformist dominated Interior Minister has said the ban is illegal. Prime Minister Kathami is meeting with Supreme leader Khamanei in an attempt to resolve the issue, and has appealed to the reformists not to provoke the conservatives.

 

0230 GMT January 11, 2004

India To Defer Pakistan Talks Till After Snap Election

  • Times of India reports Government of India will defer peace talks with Pakistan till after a snap general election planned for March. The ruling BJP has been bedeviled by the need to run a coalition government, and while Prime Minister Vajpayee has managed to get everyone to work together, clearly he would prefer a stronger position. Currently, he is riding at a peak thanks to a booming economy, excellent monsoons - which means increased agricultural output - and the breakthrough in India-Pakistan relations. The Government says it will continue to discuss modalities of the comprehensive talks with Pakistan through February, and smaller steps agreed on or under discussion will continue to be implemented. Full talks will begin after the elections. If Mr. Vajpayee emerges with a strong hand, there is a serious chance for some permanent settlement with Pakistan on Kashmir. [Orbat.com feels it will be permanent until President Musharraf is deposed.]

  • Orbat.com sources confirm Indian troops participated directly in Bhutan's Operation All Clear, as opposed to simply catching insurgents as they fled into India to escape the Bhutan Army's advance. We have unit and formation details, but are withholding them till we get a few things clear for ourselves.

  • Arabnews.com says the PLO threatens to declare unilateral independence in response to Israeli threats to come up with a unilateral solution. Both sides are frustrated by the lack of progress. Israel has already reacted, saying a unilateral declaration will force it to annex more of Palestine and the Palestinians will get even less than what they have now. Meanwhile, the Palestine prime minister has said that if Israel goes in for unilateral separation, Palestine will push for a binational state. Already there are 3.5 million Arabs and 1.2 million Arabs with Israeli citizenship that live in the West Bank. Israel has 5.5 million people. Soon Arabs will outnumber Jews, and Israel will be left with two equally unpleasant choices: give up Jewish control of the state or formalize an apartheid system to control its Arab citizens.

  • Agencies say 6 Iraqis were killed in Amarah by Iraqi police and British soldiers during a violent protest by people demanding jobs. Iraqi policemen, believing that the shots they heard from the crowd meant they were under attack, opened fire. British troops moved in to support the police, and killed at least one man throwing a grenade at a British armored vehicle.

  • Meanwhile, US soldiers from 173 AbnBde in Kirkuk, responding to a report of two families fighting, killed two men who were shooting at a house. The men fled when they saw the US troops, and were pursued. The Americans repeatedly called for the men to identify themselves and opened fire after the men refused to comply.

  • Agencies report Danish troops in Iraq have found mortar shells that appear to contain traces of blister agents, but the shells also appear to date from the Iran-Iraq War. Thirty six 120mm heavy mortar shells were found buried by Danish forces working with UK troops near Amarah; the troops feel they will locate more shells.

  • Meanwhile, Haaretz of Israel reports the US feels there is insufficient evidence to suggest Iraq moved its WMDs into Syria before Gulf II began. This has been a popular theory since last March.

 

0001 GMT January 10, 2004

US Iraq-Afghanistan Troop Rotation Has Begun

  • What is described as the largest movement of US troops in several decades has begun. The US Army and Marine Corps are sending 110,000 troops to Iraq and bringing back 130,000 to their home stations. The reduction in force is primarily in the Mosul area, where a single Stryker brigade will replace the 101st Air Assault Division; otherwise most brigade replacements will be on a one-for-one basis.

  • Simultaneously, the 25th Infantry Division [-] will be replacing the 10th Mountain Division [-] in Afghanistan. In all, 8 1/2 of the Army's 10 divisions are involved in the rotation. which leads to the now perennial question of why the US has so far failed to activate 2-6 new divisions. The true impact of the overstretched force structure will become apparent soon: the US Army is offering $10,000 to each soldier reenlisting for 3 years, double the present bonus, many are accepting, but others are laughing at the amount. Considering how much it costs the US to train one soldier and how much her/his experience is worth, Orbat.com is surprised the Army is not offering $20,000 or even $30,000.

  • UPI reports that Saddam Hussein is being treated as a defacto POW based on his position as commander of the old Iraq Army. The US rejects allegations the Geneva Convention was violated when he was videotaped in humiliating circumstances after his arrest: US says it was important for people of Iraq to see he really was in custody. 

  • An interesting implication of Saddam's POW status is that under the Geneva Convention, for crimes against humanity  he has to be tried under the laws of the occupying power or under international law.  He cannot be turned over to an Iraqi court. Orbat.com invites informed readers to share with us what happens when the US is no longer the occupying power. Moreover, under US law the death penalty is frequently and freely applied. At the same time, we are against the unctuous moralizing so many countries are directing at Iraq. It is entirely the business of Iraqis, and perhaps also the Iranians and Kuwaitis, how Saddam is sentenced.

  • Stars and Stripes reports that the US 142nd Engineer Battalion, assigned to upgrade the air base at Balad north of Baghdad, not only has two sets of twins, but also the father of one set of twins. He is serving alongside his daughters, and a third daughter has entered the Army.

  • BBC says after the conclusion of a Pakistan Army raid against Wana, South Waziristan Agency, unknown persons launched a rocket attack against a Pakistan security forces barracks, killing 4 soldiers. Orbat.com does not know if these are regulars or Frontier Corps. Though several Waziris have been detained for questioning, no foreigner has been found in the raid.

  • Arabnews.com of Saudi Arabia says Switzerland has arrested 8 persons suspected of providing logistical support for the May 12, 2003 Riyadh bombings. The eight are foreigners, but not all are Muslims and they come from different backgrounds.

  • News Today reports the first Indian assembled T-90S has been handed over to the Indian Army; about 80 more are being assembled. In 2005 100 tanks will be assembled from Completely Knocked Down kits and indigenous production will start in 2006-07.

  • While agencies report Iran has extended a cautious welcome to the idea of talks with the US, according to what we read in IRNA [Islamic Republic News Agency], former President  Rafsanjani blasted the US in a sermon during Friday prayers, essentially saying the US assumed too much when it offered to send a delegation to Iran in the wake of the Bam earthquake. Mr. Rafsanjani is a hard-line conservative, but Orbat.com readers do need to keep in mind the waters of Iranian politics are treacherous and shifting.  From what we read the majority of the Iranian people want normal relations with the US and an end to the rule of mullahs; equally, the mullahs have no intention of giving up power regardless of the will of the people.

  • Haaretz of Israel helps clear up a recent mystery: despite persistent reports that Libya and Israel were in negotiation to upgrade ties, Libya has denied talks. Today Haaretz says the Israeli Foreign Office has been perusing the talks against the wishes of some aides of Prime Minister Sharon, and these aides leaked the news of the talks, leading to an angry response from Tripoli that it was breaking off the talks.

 

0200 GMT January 9, 2004

US Withdraws One Iraq WMD Team

  • New York Times say US is withdrawing its 400-person strong Joint Captured Materiel Exploitation Group from Iraq. The team, headed by an unidentified Australian brigadier, is composed of technical experts. NYT quotes one official as saying the JCMEG has picked up everything that was worth picking up". Another WMD team remains.

  • Agencies say Iraq's Kurds will continue their semi-autonomous status within Iraq. This announcement has drawn severe criticism from neighboring states with Kurd separatist problems and from many Iraqis. Nonetheless, the US says the shortened hand-over time does not permit the US to determine the Kurd relationship with Baghdad, this is something the new government will have to figure out.

  • Associated Press says the UH-60 downed near Fallujah, killing nine soldiers, was hit in the tail by a ground-fired rocket. The medevac helicopter was clearly marked and was one of a pair flying a mission. Also, a C-5 was hit by a SAM in its Number 4 engine on take-off from Baghdad IAP, but managed to land. No injuries are reported.

  • Jang of Pakistan says the Pakistan Army's Quick Reaction Force raided a village in South Waziristan Agency but apparently made no arrests. The Jang report paints a decidedly less sensational picture than some of the foreign press. The force, using 7 helicopters, flew in after deadlines had passed for the surrender of 3 wanted men from the village. Village elders accompanied the search party, but the men continue to abscond. As is the custom in the tribal areas, the houses where the wanted men were known to have sheltered were demolished. Pakistan authorities have warned frontier tribes not to provide shelter to non-Pakistanis.

  • A Polish newspaper says the Government of Poland has given permission to the US to build a major military base. AFP quotes a Polish official to say no decision has been made. The newspaper says that in deference to Russian sensitivities, the base will be built well west of the Vistula. 

  • AFP says Libya and France have come to a final settlement on the UTA passenger jet bombing. Libya will pay $170 million compensation for the 170 lives lost. Libya says there are no further outstanding issues between Tripoli and Paris.

 

0200 GMT January 8, 2004

  • Times of India using AFP says an anti-India insurgent group in Myanmar says its fighters have driven off an attempted Myanmar Army encirclement, killing 15 troops against 3 of its fighters dead. Myanmar has no comment. India says it is reinforcing its border with Myanmar to trap fighters who may try to escape into Indian territory. Orbat.com notes the terrain is extremely wild and very difficult to access.

  • Agencies report the US will release 550 of 12,000 Iraq detainees as a goodwill gesture. A detainee must have an important community person to assure his parole. Violent criminals will not be released.

  • Agencies say the EU does not agree with the US hardline on Libya and is preparing to receive Mr. Gaddaffi.

  • BBC reports that the Nigerian authorities who earlier had said "Taliban" militants  of Yobe state were crushed in fighting last week, now say some have escaped to Borno state  next door and some fighting continues. BBC says the militants have almost no support among the Muslims of Yobe state.

  • CNN reports that the US says a man who failed to board an Air France flight to Los Angeles Christmas Eve is not being sought, contrary to previous reports.

 

0230 GMT January 7, 2004

India, Pakistan To Open Dialog On All Issues Including Kashmir, Pakistan Will Not Allow Its Territory To Be Used For Terrorism

  • Orbat.com carries with little enthusiasm the news [mainly from Jang of Pakistan and Times of India] that India and Pakistan have decided to discuss all outstanding issues including Kashmir. Since India's precondition for such discussion was that Pakistan should not permit its territory to be used by Kashmir militants, nor should the Pakistan Army sponsor militants, President Musharraf has assured the Indian Prime Minister that Pakistan will do the needful.

  • So is this the start of a settlement of one of the modern  world's longest running territorial dispute? Will India and Pakistan stop fighting each other and combine with other South Asian states in creating a common market of 1350+ million people, bigger than China? Is peace and love about to break out?

  • Frankly, Orbat.com thinks no. For Pakistan to give up its claims to Kashmir - and therefore the insurgency it has maintained against India for 16 years - is to negate the reasons for which Pakistan was created. If Pakistan can accept a division of Kashmir, it might as well begin negotiations to return to the Union of India, from which it separated on August 14, 1947. We feel the US has put such pressure on Pakistan that Pakistan has had no choice to seek a compromise, but this is only a tactical retreat on Pakistan's side. The pressure is coming not just because of terrorism, but also because of the nuclear proliferation issue. Meanwhile, if President Musharraf is deposed in a coup by an army who's reason for existence is the recovery of Kashmir, or killed by militants who are already against his lukewarm efforts to rid Pakistan of them, then any agreement on Kashmir goes straight to the trash can.

  • CNN quotes two US officials to say that Pakistan also aided Libya's nuclear program [Iranian connections were proved last month]. Again, however, there is no proof of the Pakistan Government's involvement.  This might again  be the ubiquitous Dr. A.Q. Khan acting for his own gain. Orbat.com finds it surprising that the Pakistan Government should have no knowledge of what its top nuclear official has been up to these past 20 years.

  • Washington Times says the Pentagon is considering a 4-star officer to take over direct command in Iraq so that strategic decisions relating to Iraqi self-rule can be taken more efficiently, and so that the 3-star general in command in Iraq can focus on operational issues. US also plans to drop the "New" from New Iraq Army; Orbat.com remains unclear if this is an issue of such importance it has to be reported in the same story.

  • BBC reports the 2nd Battalion, New Iraq Army, graduated on Iraq's Army Day, January 6, 2004. The US has agreed to give hazard pay to some soldiers and police, partially meeting a grievance that led to almost 2/3rds of the 1st Battalion leaving the army. Meanwhile, we have no news on what is being done to reconstitute that unit.

 

0230 GMT January 6, 2004

  • Jang of Pakistan says Myanmar has launched an offensive against anti-India insurgent camps located in its Northeast. A rebel source says there are no casualties despite heavy fighting. Meanwhile, India Abroad, a South Asian weekly published from New York, says Indian Special Forces troops participated in the recent Bhutan Army offensive.

  • The heads of India and Pakistan have decided to continue adding to the confidence building measures both sides have announced. A South Asian common market is planned for 2006, which will help expand India-Pakistan trade. This has been much lower than it should be because of the six decade old rivalry between the two countries.

  • CENTCOM reports that the Iraq Civil Defense Corps has launched and continues its first independent operation. Its mission is to keep Highway 10 east of Ramadi free of IEDs and to check fuel smuggling/black market sales on the highway.

  • BBC says the letter bomb campaign believed to have been launched by a previously unknown Italian anarchist group continues.

  •  US media reports that three army soldiers have been discharged from the service for mistreating Iraqi prisoners. Interestingly, the senior soldier present was a 35 year old woman Master Sergeant. she took the lead in beating and kicking prisoners, and "encouraged" her subordinates to do the same.

  • BBC says Iran is seriously considering moving its capital from Teheran because the city lies on an earthquake fault line. The proposal had been made earlier, and now is being considering more seriously because of the BAM disaster. An Iranian expert says that had a 6.8 magnitude earthquake - similar to the one at Bam - hit Teheran, 700,000 people would be killed. A candidate for the new capital is Isfahan, which was the capital five centuries ago.

  • BBC says an insurrection by Islamic militants calling themselves the "Taliban" in the northeastern state of Yobe was crushed by Nigerian troops and police. Twelve states in the predominantly Muslim north have introduced Sharia law. Leaders associated with the rebel group deny the presence of any foreign fighters.

  • Debka.com says a Yemen extremist group claims it downed the airliner that was carrying 135 mostly  French tourists and 13 crew from Sharam el Sheikh to Cairo. The Egyptian government has said the crash was due to mechanical failure. The group says it was protesting dress restrictions on Muslims recently imposed by the French.

 

0100 GMT January 5, 2004

Afghan Loya Jirga Adopts Constitution

  • CNN says Afghanistan's Loya Jirga, convened to adopt a constitution, finally passed the 160 article document by consensus. Orbat.com wonders what the elite who tell us poor, uneducated, religious people cannot have democracy brought to them from the outside, have to say now. It looks to us the Afghan people just wanted a chance, free of their warlords, and once they got their chance  thanks to the US, NATO, and the UN, they quickly grabbed it.

  • Haartez of Israel reports that the Israeli Defense Force plans to offer its Zeelim brigade and company training center to foreign armies. Zeelim is thought to be among the best in the world in terms of facilities, instrumentation, and instructors. The IDF hopes to create goodwill with other countries and to earn money.

  • Haaretz also reports that the Israeli cabinet has voted 13-2 to buy 50 million cubic meters of water from Turkey for each of 20 years at a cost of $0.8 to $1 per thousand liters. Former premier and present cabinet minister Benjamin Netanhayu was one two voting against the deal because, he said, desalinated water would cost less, at $0.5 - 0.54 per cubic meter. The annual import would equal that of an area of 500 square kilometers covered to a depth of one meter. Orbat.com speculates that the strategic implications of the deal may be somewhat more important than the commercial.

  • Please read this story from Stars and Stripes via Military.com on how the 3/124th InfRegt Florida National Guard, is conducting raids in its area.  This is a great example of how CI operations should be conducted and its heartening the US Army has progressed sufficiently in this area that this one battalion, at least, is doing it right.

 

0200 GMT January 4, 2004

Colombia FARC Leader Captured

  • CNN says Simon Trinidad, one of the seven men who run Colombia's FARC, was arrested by Ecuadorian police at a routine document check in Quito. He was rapidly extradited to Colombia. FARC, with 16,000 fighters, has been fighting the Colombia government for 39 years and engages in drug smuggling and kidnapping to get its money. It is a ruthless organization that routinely executes and murders civilians to spread terror. Rival government-allied paramilitary forces arose to oppose FARC and use the same methods to make money and enforce their rule on the countryside. Trinidad is the only member of inner circle who has been arrested in 39 years. Said the US assisted with his capture but no information is give.

  • BA's jinxed flight 223 Heathrow-Dulles finally operated today, but this time was subjected to a 3-hour inspection before-hand. Passengers were searched and then boarded one at a time.

  • News  of the Mildly Absurd CNN  says only 225 of 268 passengers originally booked showed up for the flight, and then says that the reason is not known. That the flight was subjected to a 3-hour reverse screening on Wednesday, and then cancelled on Thursday and Friday, all for security reasons, would, Orbat.com assumes, suffice to force many cancellations.    BBC says 268 passengers were searched and that surprisingly few people objected. Come on, BBC, you can do better than that. Who in their right mind is going to object given the circumstances of this flight? The story should say that astonishingly, some people complained.

  • BBC says the US is refusing to lift sanctions against Libya until its WMD programs have been destroyed and it renounced terrorism. Libya says US should accept UN ruling that sanctions would be lifted in May, and has suggested it will hold back compensation to the Lockerbie victims till the issue is sorted out.

  • Orbat.com's information about the reasons for Teheran's rejection of the proposed US high-level delegation is borne out. Washington Post and other media says Teheran has asked Washington to hold the visit in "abeyance" and is not a complete rejection.

  • Jang of Pakistan says a single word is now holding up the ratification of the new Afghan constitution. All other issues have been resolved. Uzbek representatives want their language to be declared the third official language of Afghanistan, after Pushtun and Dari, but opponents say it should not be a national language.

 

0200 GMT January 3, 2004

  • Media says BA 223 London-Dulles cancelled again, on Friday. A British  security officer says a known terrorist is thought to be trying to board the flight, possibly with the objective of taking it over and crashing it into a Washington target. The suspect did not show up on both says. Meanwhile, France confirms US fighters escorted two Air France flights into Los Angeles IAP, and hinted French fighters may be escorting some flights into France. Aeromexico to Los Angeles cancelled for second day. Now said the six Air France flights into and from Los Angeles cancelled earlier in the week were based on mistranslated names provided by the US to French authorities.

  • BBC says Afghan loya jirga set to resume after temporary break caused by delegates inability to agree on national language and presidential powers. Delegates seem determined to end with a constitutional agreement. Orbat.com suggests that this being the first time anything approaching true democracy is being practiced in Afghanistan, hitches are to be expected.

  • BBC quotes Indian Army chief as saying Bhutan Army has killed or captured 650 anti-Indian insurgents in recent offensive and that fighting is still continuing at two camps, the others have been destroyed. Meanwhile, Bangladesh first denied militants were using its territory for attacks against India, but has nonetheless moved to crack down on them. Also, Burma and India are preparing to patrol the border to prevent insurgents from escaping to Burma. India keep cordial relations with Burma; BBC says thrice in last 10 years the Burmese have helped India on insurgent issue. Orbat.com would ordinarily congratulate the Government of India on a brilliantly prepared long-term campaign to tackle the issue of foreign sanctuaries used by Northeast India rebels, but the campaign is so well put together and the diplomacy so well executed that we wonder how the government, famed for its bumbling on security issues for six decades, is suddenly doing so well.

  • CENTCOM says its has made a third drug interception in the Arabian Gulf, on information received. A RAAF Orion tracked the dhow and the USS Peleliu [LHA 5], Port Royal [CG 73], and Germantown [LSD 42] made the interception with teams from USMC's 13th MEU, working together as part of a new Expeditionary Strike Group 1. The 15 crewmembers detained join 18 others arrested in the two earlier interception. From the given street value of the hashish found on board, Orbat.com estimates this was a 1350-kg load. Ten of the 33 crew members have been taken to a secure facility for questioning to determine if they have Al Qaeda ties. Orbat.com suggests the Gulf smugglers, who have spent peaceful decades at their trade, must now be tearing their hair out. Aside from the normal trading risks, they are now being tracked by Allied forces, and face the danger of having an Al Qaeda label pinned on them.

  • CENTCOM also says US gunners from 4-1 Arty working with Iraqi police conducted a cordon-and-search against a Baghdad mosque. 34 suspects were detained and various arms, ammunition, and explosives seized.

  • CNN says Teheran rejects US offer of a high-level "unofficial" delegation to discuss further aid for Iran earthquake victims. Orbat.com information, for whatever it may be worth, is that the US is moving too fast in this unexpected direction for the Iranians bureaucrats, ministers, and clergy. These decision makers  are deeply divided at any given time on foreign policy, let alone issues involving the 800 pound gorilla that US-Iran relations have been for almost a quarter century. 

 

0100 GMT January 2, 2004

  • CNN says a BA flight arriving in Washington was subjected to "reverse screening" for three hours where passengers were extensively questioned. No arrests were reported. Another US-bound BA flight was cancelled because of security concerns. US and UK officials refused to provide details. Debka.com says a New Year's Eve Aeromexico flight to Los Angeles was also cancelled because of security concerns.

  • AFP reports that a Brazilian judge has ordered American visitors to his country will now have to be fingerprinted and photographed. His ruling follows a complaint made before him on behalf of Brazilian citizens who now must, along with visitors from 26 other countries, comply with similar regulations when visiting the US. Clearly much vexed, the judge blasted the US requirements as equal to worst of the Nazis in their time. While the Foreign Ministry has asked the US to rescind the new regulation and says it will otherwise retaliate proportionally, the Foreign Minister is of the opinion the judge has exceeded his authority.

  • Meanwhile, Portugal's pilots are against the US requirement to put arms guards on some flights to the US. Sweden had earlier refused to comply, but an alternative arrangement has been worked out. No details given.

  • BBC says 250 UN troops at Port Buchanan in Liberia and 1000 are expected at Gbarnga. This marks the first movement of peacekeepers outside Monrovia and will ensure residents of these two towns now receive humanitarian assistance.

  • Haartez of Israel reports a new kind of refusenik. An army reserve major has refused to let his daughter be posted to Netzarim, a settlement of 60 families deep in Palestine territory that requires an army battalion to defend it. The road to the settlement is said to be the most treacherous that Israelis travel. The major, however, is not objecting to his daughter's posting on pacifist grounds. He says she is inadequately trained for duty in the dangerous place. She has fired just 12 rounds as part of her training and, says the major, will be unable to defend herself. Haartez, which is to left in Israeli discourse, says that the girl's case has resonated with other parents of soldiers throughout Israel. She is sitting at home, AWOL for a 5th day.

 

0200 GMT January 1, 2004

Kashmir Militant Group Said Behind Bid On Pakistan President's Life

  • Jang of Pakistan quotes Pakistan officials as saying that Jaish e Muhammad, a banned Kashmir militant organization, is behind the recent bid on the Pakistan President's life. Orbat.com is a bit surprised: we know Pakistan has cracked down on this and two other Kashmir militant groups under US pressure, but we've believed the crackdown is cosmetic. We await further developments before commenting.

  • To avoid giving unwarranted credence to rumors behind the recent heightened US and European alerts we will not be carrying any reports unless they originate from the governments in question.

  • Washington Post says American relief workers greeted with goodwill in Bam. Meanwhile, CNN says US government lifts ban on transfer of money and equipment to Iran for 90-days to permit private persons to help. President Khatami says no thaw can take place unless Washington reverses its 24-year old course toward Iran.

  • Times of India says China has rejected the request for safe passage by an anti-Indian insurgent group based in Bhutan. The group is among three that is fleeing before a Bhutan Army offensive aimed at freeing the kingdom of its uninvited guests.

  • CENTCOM says that thanks to tip off by local Iraqis, several weapons caches have been uncovered by US 101st AADiv in and around Mosul. The caches include almost 400 60mm and 82mm mortar rounds.

  • BBC reports that based on declassified papers, its Joint Intelligence Committee believed in 1973 that the US might use an airborne brigade each against Saudi and Kuwait to seize oilfields and break the oil embargo. It was thought possible a third brigade might be dropped on Abu Dhabi. Two divisions would be subsequently flown in, and might have had to stay for 10 years. Direct military counter-action by Moscow was thought unlikely, but an attack by Moscow's ally Iraq was considered a possibility. Saddam was Vice President of Iraq at the time.