AFP says ex-President Aristide arrived in Dominican Republic, likely enroute to undisclosed asylum country; CNN says US helped arranged departure. Chief Justice sworn in as interim head of Government. US waiting for permission from Haiti to start landing Marines today itself; their mission will be to establish base for incoming international peacekeepers and act as reassuring presence to stop more Haitians from fleeing country.

1430 GMT February 29, 2004

MSNBC says President Aristide resigns and departs Port-au-Prince in corporate jet 1145 GMT, destination unknown. Observers warn crisis is by no means over as basically Haiti is controlled by warring gangs and militias who are preparing to sort each other out. There appears no clear line of succession: Supreme Court head supposed to take over, but Parliament must approve, and Parliament has not met for some months.

0130 GMT February 29, 2004

US Denies Osama Captured

 

0300 GMT February 28, 2004

Two More Haiti Towns Fall
US Considers MEU For Haiti

  • BBC reports rebels have taken control of Mirebalais, a town 60 km N of Haiti's capital, Port-au-Prince. A separate group of rebels have seized Les Cayes, Haiti's 3rd largest city in the Sud district of the country. This indicates the South is also in danger of falling to anti-Aristide forces.

  • In an abrupt change of course, the US is considering dispatching troops to Haiti. Reader T.S. Shiflett emails:

    The United States is thinking of sending: USS Saipan, USS Oak Hill, & USS Trenton to Haiti, all based in Norfolk, Va (Split between NavSta Norfolk & Little Creek Amphibious Base). "They are at a state of readiness that allows them to be able to deploy, if called upon, within a matter of days," said Navy Lt. Jim Hoeft, a spokesman for the Fleet Forces Command, referring to the Saipan group.

    A Marine Corps official said the 2,200-strong 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit from Camp Lejeune, North Carolina, was "prepared to deploy" if such an order came. If ordered to sail, it would take about two days for those ships to reach Haiti, one official said.

    Could be an interesting time getting the marines ready, after South Carolina was hit with a rather nasty winter storm over the last two days...The MEU would more then likely be (-) not much need for the Artillery Batteries, armor, anti-air, & anti-armor elements; unless they get drafted to be ad hoc infantry.  The AV-8B's could be "bumped" to make room for more helicopters to evac civilians/drop supplies....

    The last time we were in Haiti, we called it the "Haitian Vacation"...I was riding USS Scott (DDG-995) with DesRon 22 staff onboard that time.

  • Reader Todd Croft speculates: "noticed that a bunch of US Navy Aircraft Carriers just began their training cycles, leaving only four in maintenance. This would  have four to seven carriers ready for surge or planned deployment within one to five months. Are we looking at a potential planned action this summer/fall?" Please email comments to us.

  • Reader Rahul Narang forwards an International Herald Tribune article, saying whereas earlier the story of the US picking up evidence of plutonium over Pakistan after its 1998 tests went out of the news, with Dr. A.Q. Khan's antics in the headlines these days, the issue is back full bore. Now the speculation is it was DPRK plutonium, as - says IHT - it makes no sense for PRC to have given Pakistan plutonium.

  • CNN says tens of thousands of anti-President Chavez demonstrators clashed with police after the national election commission said it will examine over 1 million recall signatures for possible fraud. The organizers of the petition drive, aimed at a referendum on recalling the president, say many of the names are written by the same people, but the thumbprints and signatures are different. Ex-US President Jimmy Carter has urged the Venezuelan government to overlook minor discrepancies in the petition, which has considerably more signatures than the number required to force a referendum. Meanwhile, whereas earlier President Chavez had said  he would resign if recalled, now he says he will appeal to the courts in the event of a recall vote.

  • Jang of Pakistan says the Pakistan Army operation against Al-Qaeda has been expanded following reports that the US has intercepted satphone conversations pointing to the possibility Mr. Bin Laden is hiding in Pakistan's tribal regions. The official spokesperson has nothing to say.

     

0200 GMT February 27, 2003

  • BBC says US is wavering about its support for President Aristide's continuance in power through his term expiring in 2006 and has been dropping hints its time for Aristide to go. Meanwhile, US Marines are assisting UN staff to evacuate.

  • NPR says the US has lifted the 30 year travel ban applicable to Libya. US companies that already had interests in Libya are free to negotiate reentry, and the US has permitted Libya to open a diplomatic office - well short of an embassy - in Washington.

  • There is no worthwhile news to report on the Pakistani offensive in its tribal areas.

  • Pravda says quotes ex-KGB official to say allegation after the arrest of 3 Russians in Qatar over suspicion they were involved in death of Chechan rebel leader is "absurd" because Russia had much more to gain by capturing him for questioning and trial in Russia.

  • Pravda says UK will provide $21 million loan to Russia to facilitate scrapping of two 12,000-ton nuclear submarines. The idea is to prevent potential disasters if the submarines are improperly disposed off. Work on scrapping the two boats began in December 2003 and will be completed later this year.

  • 400 Japanese journalists are covering the deployment of their country's troops to Samawah, Iraq. A local woman is quoted by BBC as saying that while the coalition came to Iraq to take everything, the Japanese have come to give Iraqis everything they want. Orbat.com question: any chance of getting Japanese troops into Washington? Orbat.com has a few things it needs.

  • Times of India says US has invited India to join NATO air exercises in Alaska this coming summer. The move is part of a US plan to block India joining a potential Russia-China-India axis and to put India in a better mood regarding troop deployment to Iraq.

  • Mandeep Bajwa send an International Herald Tribune article says Greece is likely to ask NATO for help in protecting the 2004 Olympic games. The request might come as individual requests to member countries rather than to NATO HQ. Greece is to spend $1 billion for security [3 times more than spent for the Sydney 2000 games] and will deploy 90,000 troops and police. Nonetheless, Greek officials fear this may not be enough. The US 6th Fleet is already prepared to be part of the security arrangements.

 

 

0200 GMT February 26, 2003

Canada Dispatches Troops To Its Haiti Embassy

  • AFP reports that Canadian troops are enroute to Port-au-Price, Haiti, to reinforce its embassy security. The news is rendered less dramatic by the revelation that perhaps 9 soldiers are involved: existing security strength is two police officers.

  • Nonetheless, the Canadian move comes as BBC reports looting breaks out in the capital. France is speaking of an international force and blaming President Aristide for the crisis.  Canada might contribute 100 police officers to the force. The US is refusing to consider any intervention until a peace agreement is reached.

  • CNN says the rebels are standing clear as yet, hoping international pressure will secure President Aristide's resignation.

  • Jang of Pakistan reports further on the Noh play that the ongoing Pakistan offensive against Al Qaeda/Taliban forces has become. according to official sources [1] South Waziristan is peaceful [2] Half of the 20 people arrested  seem to be innocent locals and will be released today [3] The 4 Afghan women arrested seem to be innocent and will be released [4] No foreigners have yet been arrested [5] It is not true that Al Zawahri's son has been arrested [6] tribal councils are calling on the 40 tribesmen still wanted out of the original 80 to surrender. The only sign of any upset in the area where allegedly 70,000 Pakistan security forces are combing through is that some of the locals are miffed at the demolition of their houses for failure to turn over wanted men.

  • More News of the Absurd Jang of Pakistan says Pakistan's Information Minister was asked about allegations of US troops operating inside Pakistan. He said nothing of the sort was happening. Then why are there American helicopters in Pakistani territory? His answer: the Afghan-Pakistan border is very complicated and any coincidence could happen. The Information Minister has proved he thinks journalists are idiots, but does he seriously think the Pakistani people, who elected him to Parliament, are also idiots?

  • Pravda reports rumors of war between Armenia and Aijerbaijan: we are unable to make out what the story is about, and sw no mention of it on the BBC website.

  • Russian Humor We'd spoken of the sardonic Russian sense of humor a few days back. Here is a report from Pravda.com, allegedly quoting an Arab newspaper, Elaf, saying that Saddam is slowly going insane in captivity [Please do not take this too seriously - you are going to play into the hands of the Russians is you do!]

    Hussein has several photographs of Udai and Kusai (his sons) in his cell. Interestingly, a portrait of George W. Bush of an unknown origin also neatly hangs on the wall. This fact can be interpreted as another evidence of Hussein's insanity. Had he been well, the former Iraqi leader would not have hung a picture of his enemy. And in case the portrait had been hung by someone other than Hussein, perhaps, the captive has gone crazy as a result of constantly staring at Bush' intellectual face.

    In the meantime, according to a recently conducted poll, nearly 70% of Americans in the US support the idea of public broadcast of Saddam's execution. 21% of Americans are even willing to pay for watching Osama bin Laden being executed. Another 11% would like to enjoy watching the last moments of Hussein's life. So there you have it, a democratic society with experience.

1100 GMT February 25, 2004

  • CNN says Haiti opposition rejects international mediators' power-sharing plan to resolve crisis, and will present its own plan today. [Clearly the opposition is taking advantage of the rebel advance on the capital, even as it says it does not support the violence.] Meanwhile, President Aristide calls for international intervention

  • Jang of Pakistan says an operation to force Taliban/Al Qaeda fighters from Pakistan into Afghanistan is underway. Coalition forces are ready to intercept them on the Afghan side. The Afghan National Army has sent a battalion to reinforce coalition forces.

  • Jang adds that confusion exists as to the identity of 20 [CNN says 25] persons detained. The federal government claims they are foreigners, but local authorities say they are Pakistanis accused of sheltering foreign fighters.

  • Times of India quoting Jang says a son of Al Zawahiri, Bin Laden's top deputy, has been captured in the above operation and handed over to the United States. [This may account for new statements by Zawahiri threatening the US with more 9/11 attacks. It also appears that Jang is not updating its news page as frequently as it should.]

  • Meanwhile, just to add to the confusion about sources, Jang quotes Times of India to say India's RAW helped foil a plot against President Musharraf's life. [While no particular love for President Musharraf exists in India, Delhi has always found it easier to deal with Pakistan's military dictators as opposed to its civilian leaders. The reason is simple: with the military dictators India know exactly where it stands - the dictators want above all to preserve their rule.]

  • News of the Absurd A 29-year old woman working for UK's GCHQ - the British equivalent of the US NSA was discharged in court after the British government said it would not offer evidence against her for leaking government secrets. The Mandarin translator leaked news that US intelligence had asked the British to step up eavesdropping of embassies from countries that were key to a UN Iraq resolution. She said she had only followed her conscience: she wanted to expose attempts by the US to subvert GCHQ and also to save civilian Iraqi lives. We thought if one worked for a top-secret government agency dealing with national security, one's conscience required one only to resign. We also thought the US and UK were allies, so rather than subverting GCHQ, the US was only asking for help. As for saving Iraqi lives, we find this person's motives quite charming.

  • Presumably it was okay for Saddam to kill his people, but not okay for the US/UK to stop him from doing so - admittedly primarily in pursuit of their own interests, and admittedly at the cost of some Iraqi lives. We find this attitude, quite common in the west, to be demeaning to non-whites. It is racist, because it assumes that while its fine to intervene to save whites [Balkans 1990s, Spanish Civil War, Poland 1939, France 1914] its not okay to save black or brown or yellow lives. This attitude becomes doubly insulting when its dressed up in the guise of concern for human rights, and the obvious implication that the Iraqis don't deserve the same human rights as the British do. If it was okay for Britain to twice fight Germany at a horrendous cost in civilian lives - even if it was in the British geostrategic interest to do so - then why is it now not okay to fight Saddam? Should people in intelligence agencies have leaked British plans to counter Hitler because that meant war and the loss of civilian lives?

 

0300 GMT February 24, 2004

Cape Haitien in Rebel Hands; They Advance on Capital
 Pakistan Prepares For Assault on Al Qaeda

  • BBC, CNN, other agencies say rebels have taken Cape Haitien and are on the outskirts of Port-au-Prince, Haiti's capital. Capital said preparing fir rebel attack.

  • Orbat.com is astonished to learn just 200 rebels took Cape Haitien, a city of half a million people. Ministers are said to be scrambling for hiding places.

  • US sends 50 Marines [we presume from 4th MEB] to reinforce the dozen or so normally assigned to the embassy.

  • South Asia editor Mandeep Bajwa, using open sources,  says that Pakistan has massed 70,000 troops in the tribal areas for an assault against Al Qaeda elements.

  • We estimate these include two army divisions from XI and XII Corps, several SF companies, and a range of paramilitary forces - possibly numbering 30-40,000 - including the Frontier Corps. So it would appear the spring offensive the US talks about will come sooner than the spring.

  • US Army cancels Comanche attack helicopter after $7 billion development program, will use $14 billion budgeted for procurement to upgrade 1400 Army helicopters and buy 780 new helicopters for the Army Guard and Reserve. Army says it will use the new technologies developed for the Comanche in new and upgraded helicopters; says the helicopter was no longer needed because the threat it was designed to counter no longer exists.

  • Haaretz of Israel says according to a US book just published quoting US DIA, Israel has less than 80 nuclear warheads, less than the 200 previously used widely. [Orbat.com comment: there was no military basis for the 200 warhead estimate to begin with; and of course the DIA is not about to tell us how it arrived at the less than 80 figure. That's the nice thing about intelligence, isn't it: the intelligence people can just look smug and say "well, we cant tell you how we know, but we know". Our response usually is, well, we're from Iowa so what do we know?]

0200 GMT February 23, 2004

Haiti Rebels Surround Cape Haitien

  • CNN says rebels have surrounded Haiti's second largest city and last major northern city not in rebels hands, Cape Haitien. There is no reliable information from the city but the owner of a hotel called CNN to say the rebels took the airport and port, attacked the main police station, freed prisoners, and dumped seized arms caches on the street. While pro-Aristide militias had said they would fight the rebels if the latter advanced on the city, there is no information if this is happening. The hotel owner says the police have been "disbanded".

  • BBC and AP report the rebels have taken the city, burning all 4 police stations.

  • CNN reports that the Ugandan rebel Lord's Resistance Army, notorious for its use of indoctrinated child soldiers, attacked a Ugandan refugee camp, overrunning the 36 militiamen posted as protection. The child soldiers then herded refugees into their huts and set fire to the huts. Eyewitnesses say about 200 are dead, including several mothers with babies.  A priest says he cannot imagine such cold-blooded cruelty committed by children. Orbat.com comment: Alas, Africa. Neither East nor West has time for you.

  • Washington Post reported 3 days ago that a letter from Al Qaeda commander Al Zarawi seized in a raid, speaks of his worries that the Americans are growing stronger every day in Anbar Province and Al Qaeda/allies are losing. US officers are joking that they couldn't have written a better letter. Orbat.com is still unclear if the document has been declared genuine.

  • Washington Post reported yesterday that the US Army is undertaking a big job creation/restoration program in Anbar Province and this has drastically reduced attacks against US forces even in areas like Fallujah. The locals say, however, that outsiders keep attacking US troops, creating serious problems for everyone.

  • Washington Post also says that while the ICDC in Anbar has been taking a beating at the hands of rebels, the attacks are creating blood feuds because Iraqis and/or foreigners are killing Iraqis. We had carried a report last week that a rebel group had disassociated itself from the attacks and pledged to protect ICDC personnel if necessary.

  • Something is afoot on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. A lengthy report in Jang says that US forces have stepped up pressure against Taliban elements in several eastern provinces, and that local authorities in South Waziristan have called on the center to sent 8000 Frontier Corps reinforcements to strengthen the 4000 FC paramilitary troops already there. The Pakistan Army has a brigade recently inducted into the area, but the local officials say they prefer not to call on the regulars except as a last resort. Odd as this may sound, please keep in mind there is no love lost between the locals and the center. Reports also say the Pakistan Army is bringing in reinforcements prior to the expected spring offensive against the Taliban. The official Pakistan defense spokesperson insists, as usual, that everything is normal, there is no movement of troops, and the army has the border tightly sealed up. Anyone who has been to the border knows that the border cannot be sealed, no matter how many troops Pakistan deploys, and it actually has very few compared to the vast and wild mountain area that is ideal for infiltrators.

  • UK Sunday Express says US/UK special forces have Osama Bin Laden boxed into a 16 mile square area near Quetta and are confident he cannot escape. Local authorities deny any operation is underway. Sunday Express says the area was pinpointed first by satellite and analysis of the rocks visible in Osama's last video. A 2-person team slipped in and confirmed his presence. This was followed by other teams. No helicopters have been used to avoid alerting Osama.

  • Orbat.com comment: there is no problem if Osama is alerted by overhead helicopters. His followers can read all about it on the web and send him a message. Looks to us this "leak" is a planted attempt to flush him out.

 

0300 GMT February 22, 2004

Conservatives Score Major Gains in Iran

  • Crippled by a refusal of the Guardian Council to approve most of its strong candidates, Jang of Pakistan says the reformers in Iran's Majilis fell from 2/3rds majority to an expected 60-100 seats in the 290 member parliament. Turnout appeared to be 50%, against 65%+ in the last election. Nonetheless, the turnout belied expectations that less than 30% of people would vote. In Teheran, where 10% were expected to vote, 28% came to the polls.

  • IRNA of Iran's headline concerned the Iran wrestling teams progress in an international meet. Results for a few seats were announced and that was all.

  • Jang reports that while it had been expected that the conservatives would ease up after the elections, there are signs that the pressure on reformers and liberals will increase.

  • BBC says of the first 194 seats declared, conservatives won 134. No woman has been yet elected to replace the 13 in the outgoing parliament.

  • News of the Absurd But Sad Supreme Leader  Khameni says the elections were free and fair and put the lie to those in the US and Europe who objected to the elections as being rigged. Three days ago 2 reformist newspapers were shut down by order of the conservatives, and there is talk about banning satellite dishes. Its a pity that Iran's democracy has been snuffed out just as it was starting to bloom. The repercussions of the elections are widespread. We will wait for our analyst Nizark to comment on the future.

  • Jang of Pakistan says the US Government has notified Congress of several batches of arms sales to Pakistan. Jang includes 6 C-130s and 6 Aerostats that were approved in 2002-03 in its total, and we are somewhat confused by that. The new sales include 6 surveillance and 6 air traffic controls, and 40 Bell 407s, all intended to strengthen Pakistan's ability to guard its western frontiers.

  • BBC says a possible Haiti settlement has hit a snag. President Aristide has agreed to reduced powers and more power to the opposition, but the rebels say they will not stop fighting till Mr. Aristide steps down.

  • Ralph Nader will announce today if he will run for president of the US. The prospect has seriously alarmed the Democrats, who believe his siphoning off democratic votes scuttled AL Gore's chances of winning in 2000.  We have, however, seen an analysis arguing that Ralph Nader hurt Bush rather than Gore in 2000.

  • CNN says UK's MI-5 plans to recruit 1000 more officers to meet the increasing intelligence needs of the war against terror. CNN gives MI-5 strength as 1900, and the addition will out it near World War II strength. We're a bit skeptical of these very large figures. Can someone better informed tell us if they refer to total MI-5 staff or to operatives? The figure would be more credible if it refers to total employed. The CIA is also expanding recruiting.

  • Orbat.com comment Its all very well to now turn to the other extreme, arguing the CIA had become too dependent on technical means. The added personnel MI-5 and CIA adding are going to be of no use if the assessment process is skewed. Intelligence is not a value-neutral business, and why people think it can be is beyond Orbat.com's comprehension. Even hard-nose objective science conducts its experiments within a framework of prior assumptions. Will it matter, for example, if in the future 10 MI-5/CIA officers say country XYZ does not have WMD, while two say it does, and the political predilection is to  go with the minority?

 

0215 GMT February 21, 2004

Voting Underway in Iran

  • BBC reports a relatively high turnout for the Iranian general election, with early estimates at 30% versus the 10% expected in Teheran. Polls will close in 20 hours, and results will take up to a week. We could not access IRNA, presumably because of heavy traffic.

  • Times of India reports a USAF KC-10 tanker transiting between Delhi and Gwalior for the IAF-USAF joint exercises along with 4 F-15s had to return to Delhi after one engine caught fire.

  • CNN reports a US security inspection team has arrived at the US Embassy in Port-au-Prince, Haiti.  A multinational team is expected today to assess the situation and look for solutions to the crisis. The US, France, Canada, the OAS, and the Caribbean Community are sending delegates with the team.

  • Times of India also reports that because of India's failure to purchase an Advanced Jet Trainer, fighter pilot trainees are being forced to graduate after 120 hours on aircraft with take-off/landing speeds of 140-200 kmph directly to MiG-21U trainers. The MiG-21 is said to have the highest take-off and landing speed of 340 kmph. The Times adds that instructor supervision is insufficient, there are maintenance problems with an aging fleet, and the MiG-21 is a difficult aircraft to fly.  India has agreed to buy the UK Hawk,  but is yet to sign a contract. The first aircraft will arrive 35 months after signature.

  • By which time Orbat.com estimates another 60 or so MiGs of various kinds would have been written off in crashes, and 30 or so pilots killed. The IAF says it cannot afford to replace the MiG-21s, and the IAF command plus the civilians in charge of defense feel quite comfortable losing a significant fraction of the MiG fleet annually. With trainers available for USD 500,000, we may assume there is no shortage of aircraft on the world market. There is the insignificant matter of the lives lost, but no one in power seems to have noticed that. The latest MiG-21U crash saw the solo pilot-trainee eject safely and 4 killed on the ground. The Times quotes IAF sources as saying the pilot was unable to relight his engine after doing a pull-up attack.

  • Jang of Pakistan reports the US has opened a 10th Provisional Reconstruction Team base in East Afghanistan to improve security for the population. The PRT will cover Kunar and Nuristan provinces. Three more PRTs in the troubled South East region are being installed, in Ghazni, Khost, and Qalat Provinces. Existing PRTs include six manned by the US, one in Bamiyan Province manned by New Zealand, and one in Kandahar manned by Germany. Three additional PRTs will be set up by June, for a total of 16-17.  The team consists of a mix of military and civilian personnel that focus on local security and reconstruction.

  • Pravda says that the Strategic Rocket Forces successfully launched an RS-18 ICBM and a Topol M medium range missile as part of the big Russian exercises underway.

  • Pravda says the share of the air force in Russia's defense budget has fallen to 15% after the air defense and tactical forces have been merged. Earlier, the two forces each had 15% of the budget. Russia has essentially given up on a 5th-generation fighter for lack of resources. Small numbers of new and modernized aircraft and attack helicopters continue to be purchased. New aircraft include 50 Mi-28s by 2010; 40 Su-27s are to be modified to 4+ Generation; and the limited resources available are being focused on upgrades of MiG-29/31 and Su-24/25.  The Tu-160 long-range bomber has been  returned to flying service after an accident last September.

 

0230 GMT February 20, 2004

 

0300 GMT February 19, 2004

Failed Russian SSBN Exercise Launch Resulted In Serious Damage?

  • We've been trying to struggle through an extraordinarily bad translation of a Pravda story on the failure of the planned live missile launch that President Putin went to watch. Please read the story yourself and do not rely on our interpretation.

  • [1] President Putin was on board the SSBN Arkhangelsk to witness the launch of a missile from the SSBN Novomoskovsk.  Pravda, says the Novomoskovsk did launch a missile which failed to clear its silo, and the consequences could be as devastating as the Kursk disaster. The reason for failure given by Pravda sources is that the missile carried a satellite payload and apparently that caused the problem.

  • [2] Though a satellite launch was not announced as part of the exercise, Pravda says such an event would not be unprecedented: in 1998 the same submarine launched a German satellite into orbit.

  • [3] A second missile was launched without incident from the SSBN Karelia, but went off course after 98 seconds and self destructed without harm to anyone on the ground.

  • [4] Cruise missile carrying bombers sortied successfully and returned after nearing Iceland.

  • Washington Post says that as against the normal10-year  life of a Soviet ICBM, many ICBMs are now 27 years old. The parlous state of the Russian armed forces is well known and does not need repetition.

  • Oddly, as of 0300 GMT neither BBC nor CNN websites carried the news in Pravda.

  • BBC says ETA, the Basque terrorist group, has announced a ceasefire against targets in Catalonia. ETA has apparently been meeting with Catlan representatives to seek cooperation - Catalonia also has it secessionist movements. Meanwhile, BBC says that Spain is shocked at the announcement, and the Government has said it will not negotiate with ETA under any conditions. Several left parties have denounced the negotations. The leader of a left Catlan party criticized the attendance of a party official at talks with the ETA and announced all he wants from the ETA is its breakup and dispersion.  The party official has resigned. Orbat.com reminds readers the issues involved and raised by the above story are complex; we suggest interested readers study the matter for themselves.

  • BBC says Haiti's Prime Minister has requested foreign interevntion.

0230 GMT February 18, 2004

US-Pakistan Spring Offensive Against Taliban Builds

  • A Stratfor.com report forwarded to us by reader Rahul Narang makes in detail the point we've been making about the US and Pakistan. Come the spring, the US is going into Pakistan, regardless of what happens to President Musharraf as a consequence. Stratfor.com says the remnants of Al Qaeda have grouped in Pakistan because Afghanistan no longer welcomes them. President Musharraf has been hinting to his people that its better for the Pakistan Army to do the job rather than for the US, in an effort to stave off direct US action. Our information is that the US is going in regardless of what Mr. Musharraf does - unless he hands Washington Bin Laden before the US launches its spring offensive.

  • Stratfor says NATO is taking over more of the burden outside Kabul, and says this will free more US troops for the offensive. In our opinion NATO is moving far too slowly and will not be a factor in freeing troops unless the US moves in June rather than in March-April. There is a case to be made for either window. The number of troops needed also depends on if the US is going to make a pinpoint attack on information received or if it is going to comb the mountains. The latter will require, in our opinion, at least another 5,000 troops.

  • If we read Jang of Pakistan carefully and if we can trust the people on the ground talking to its correspondents, it appears the Pakistan Army is going to cooperate with the US. Locals report that Pakistan Army units have been moving into the border area of the Kurram Agency; on the other side is Afghanistan's Khost Province. Reports say 350 coalition troops have arrived at an advance base in Khost, set up just 5 km from the border, and air surveillance has been stepped up.

  • Meanwhile, locals say border crossings by US troops have increased. The Pakistan Army denies any unusual movement of its troops is taking place; nonetheless, it is common knowledge US SF have been freely operating inside the Pakistan border, even as the Pakistan Government denies the step up in border operations over the winter involves any US troops.

  • The US commander in Afghanistan says nothing about crossing the border. He does say the time has come to "close out" the task begun in 2001, and that his forces will be the anvil to the Pakistan Army's hammer. Again this would imply that Stratfor is behind the curve and that Pakistan has already made important decisions. No offensive to Stratfor: without much more by way of resources that any private group can provide, its difficult to know what exactly is happening.

  • BBC reports France is ready to intervene in Haiti along with several other regional countries. Haiti was previously a French colony. The US has said it does not want to intervene, but also says it cannot accept the proposition that President Aristide is forced from office by armed thugs. If France is going to go in with America's blessing, then someone in Washington is going to have rewrite the meaning of the Monroe Doctrine, one of the most consistently followed policies in American foreign relations.

 

0330 GMT February 17, 2004

  • BBC reports Haitian rebels have taken another  town after storming the police station; 3 are reported dead. This should bring the rebel controlled town total to 12. Meanwhile, President Aristide says he has no plans other than dialog to resolve the crisis. He hints that as the police may not be able to combat the rebels on their own, foreign intervention might be needed.

  • BBC says the Indian and US Air Forces are to begin a joint training exercise over Central India. US F-15s will fly against French [Mirage 2000] and Russian  [Mig-29 and Su-30] aircraft. Orbat.com adds that while for decades the US accused India of being a Soviet client, India never permitted the Soviets to exercise on Indian soil, nor did the Indian Army or Air Force participate in exercises with Soviet forces overseas.

  • Jang says a rebel group in Iraq has denounced recent attacks on Iraqi police in Falluja and the freeing of criminals. The group says it will help protect the Iraq police against future attacks. The common enemy is America, and not the Iraqi people.

  • Meanwhile, CNN says the Iraqi government has asked the US to revoke Saddam's POW status and hand him over for trial. The US has maintained that Saddam is Iraq's business and his people will try him. Also, the US administrator has bluntly said he will refuse to sign any decree that imposes religious rule in Iraq or infringes on the rights of women. He is said to have declared no law can come into force until he signs.

  • Pravda says the Russian strategic and ground forces are to begin exercises of a type for which advance notice is not required, and notes an official as saying the US has not raised any objection. In 2004 Russia will participate with NATO in exercises designed to intercept cruise missiles; in 2005 another exercise will be held, this time in Russia

0530 GMT February 16, 2004

  • Several media report that among the documents Pakistan provided Libya is a design for a "very, very old" type implosion N-weapon, and that the design is obviously from China [some documents in Chinese were found]. Nonetheless,  the documentation is very thorough regarding engineering instructions. Some parts of the instructions were missing. Much of the material is from open sources, and the design in question is for a 1000-lb weapon.  Two lines of speculation are given: that the Pakistanis held back key parts of the design for further money, or that they casually tossed in the designs as a bonus on the equipment purchases.

  • These reports would cast doubt on Orbat.com's statement some days ago that while the US has said for years China gave Pakistan a warhead design, and cited the UK as the source for its information, the UK said they had said they had no evidence such a transfer had occurred. Moreover, we had said that the PRC would not engage in such behavior considering they do not at all trust Pakistan. Without a look at the documents it would be impossible to say what they are about, and quite clearly, we are not in a position to toddle over to IAEA Vienna and ask for a look. We could take shelter behind our story that British said they had no confirmation, but that seems unsporting. We are entitled to ask if someone could usefully employ the drawings for a warhead, but the question is irrelevant as any country with a decent scientific cadre can put together a design using open sources and some brainwork. India, for example, was not given any warhead designs by anyone, but had the fissile material been available, it could have tested in the mid-1960s entirely on its own. Just another mystery as to what has really been going on between China and Pakistan: only Dr. Khan can tell us, we suspect he is not going to be telling anything for the rest of his life.

  • Jang of Pakistan says that the Tochi Scouts, a Pakistan Frontier Corps paramilitary unit, has searched several houses in Waziristan in the North West Frontier Province and were looking for Al Qaeda personnel. Other sources deny the reports.

  • Orbat.com's information is that the US Army is going to go into Pakistan in the spring in its search for Bin Laden. The Pakistanis, while obviously unhappy at the prospect, have no choice but to cooperate. The US has promised it will make no public statement on its intrusions, but the Pakistanis are worried - and justifiably so in our opinion - that the notoriously leaky US Government will give away details, with unimaginably negative consequences for President Musharraf. Pakistan's pride has already been grievously wounded by the uproar over Dr. Khan's activities, and its not helping that the US is ruthlessly exploiting the Khan affair to steamroller Pakistan even more. The US now has the evidence [rather, we should say has chosen to reveal the evidence it has had for many years] to completely isolate Pakistan from the rest of the world, including economic sanctions and blockades that would destroy the country's economy in short order. We repeat what we have said before: the Pakistanis have no choice but to cooperate, but we hope the US knows what it is doing. Even the mangiest cur will turn around and bite you if you treat it badly enough. We wonder if the US is not setting up Pakistan for an Islamic revolution: if the country explodes, the first lot to the guillotines will be the pro-America lot, whether they are pro-America by choice or by application of force is not going to save any of them.

  • Meanwhile, on the other side of the border, the romance between India and America grows ever stronger each day. Press Trust of India reports the Indian Army is to spend $130 million on equipment to expand and upgrade its special forces, and that a team is currently in Washington  negotiating a whole range of SF equipment.

  • CNN reports the capture of No. 41 [4 of Spades in the Deck] after a joint US-Iraqi Interior Ministry operation. The gentleman  was found hiding in Baghdad. Of the 52, 44 are accounted for, and two more may be dead. Meanwhile, says CNN, the US has still to let the Red Cross visit Saddam Hussein.

  • We hope by now our readers are clear - even if the American press is not - is that its very unlikely Saddam will be tried by the United States with all the protections that he would be entitled to. Most likely he will be "repatriated" to Iraq after he has been wrung dry; the instant he is given to the Iraqis his POW status ends, and then Saddam's long journey to wherever he is going will begin.

  • AFP says the reformers in Iran are resigned to defeat in next Friday's election. With so many disqualified, there is no outcome other than the passage of control to the hardliners.

  • BBC says that opposition supporters in Haiti held a demonstration in the capital Port au Prince on Sunday. The demonstration was attacked by pro-government supporters. BBC says the arrival of criminal gangs to reinforce armed opponents of the president will add pressure on him. Nonetheless, the US has begun discussions with Canada and Caribbean nations for an intervention force. If deployed, this will be the second time the US has come to Mr. Aristide's help, for no advantage to itself as Mr. Aristide is no friend of America. To us this shows how unsavory the opposition must be, if the US prefers for Mr. Aristide to stay in power.

 

0300 GMT February 15, 2004

Turnout in Iran Election predicted at 10-30%

  • An Iranian parliamentary official says there is no legal mechanism whereby the resignations of 120 reform MPs can be accepted. The Iranian constitution requires the Parliament be in session every day, and if the resignations are accepted, Parliament will lack a quorum, which is not permissible.

  • BBC says that 550 approved candidates have also refused to stand for election, ensuring the transfer of parliamentary power to the conservatives. Voter turnout if expected to be 30%, with Teheran getting 10%. Meanwhile, Iranian officials continue blasting the west for its "interference" in Iran's "internal affairs", and the EU would do well to tend to problems at home, including human rights abuses against Muslims. Presumably that is not interfering in the internal affairs of other countries.

  • CNN says US forces are not to be seen in Fallujah and by now it's clear the Iraqi security units cannot protect themselves, leave alone protect the population. Orbat.com thinks is thoughtful of the insurgents around Fallujah to provide the Americans with exactly the excuse they need to stay longer in Iraq. Even Ayatollah Sistani cannot possibly welcome handing over power when the insurgent Sunnis will take over Anbar, leading to a civil war when a Sistani dominant government tries to impose law and order.

  • Orbat.com finds humorous stories that the insurgents in Fallujah, after creating massive insecurity, are now telling the people only they are capable of restoring order. They promise to do it within 72 hours, by shooting troublemakers on sight. The Pentagon must be amazed at its own stupidity: so that's  what the US Army should have done in the first place. The sad thing is that that's exactly what the US should have done in the first place. The Iraqis mistake the rule of law as weakness. But the way you bring law to a lawless place is to shoot any armed person, anyone violating curfew, anyone doing anything the least bit illegal, and to shoot them down on the street without a second thought. That's the way its always been done.

  • Pravda quotes a Russian finance official as saying capital outflows from Russia have shrunk from $24 billion in 2001 to $3 billion in 2003. The official says that CIS workers in Russia remit $12 billion annually to their home states, and while the flow creates an imbalance, at least Russia is helping its brother states. Other Russian officials say they doubt worker remittances are the cause of Russia's capital outflows. They say its Russians taking their money out, and in any case Russia should not be financing brotherly love at the expense of its own people.

  • News of the Absurd Mrs. Suha Arafat, wife of Palestine Authority leader Yassar Arafat, accuses the Israeli Prime Minister of leaking the news of regular transfers made to her bank account in France, where she chooses to reside. The money is entirely legal, she says. To Orbat.com this makes perfect sense. Someone is depositing sums of a million dollars and up a month into her bank account. She is married to the head of a poor and desperate state, so she decides she'll reduce the burden on her people by setting off for Paris. While her people struggle to survive unemployment rates so high any other society would have been destroyed, and live in conditions of degrading poverty, tormented on one side by the Israelis and on the other by her husbands corrupt goons, she says the money she gets is legal. What's fantastic to us is not that she says this, but says so without any apparent realization that the time of despots has come to an end, even in the Middle East. Of course, she will never face the consequences of her corruption, because if necessary she will simply not return. And who can deny that Paris is so infinitely preferable to Gaza City? Not Orbat.com, for sure.

0500 GMT February 14, 2004

  • Agencies say the UN Secretary General's representative to Iraq agrees with Ayatollah Sistani that direct elections should take place, but firmly rules out the possibility of elections before the June 30 handover. He says the elections must be fair and credible; for that more time is needed. He warned the people of Iraq of the danger of civil war if elections were rushed. He is said to believe the Grand Ayatollah has accepted early elections are not possible.

  • IRNA of Iran says at Friday prayers in Teheran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameni called  for a massive turnout for the February 20th election. He criticized the United States for its concerns about the fairness of the coming election.

  • CNN reports that the IAEA says thanks to excellent detective work its inspectors found designs of a centrifuge more advanced than Iran has previously admitted to possessing.

  • CENTCOM says that the Canadian Tactical Airlift Unit in Afghanistan completed its 1000th C-130 mission. The unit has from 2 to 5 C-130s assigned and a strength of 300.

  • BBC says the US has rejected regime change in Haiti. While the US has been unhappy with President Aristide, it accepts him as the elected leader of the country. The US is talking about the need to send foreign police officers to Haiti.

  • Editorial comment Since Orbat.com learned that criminals and disaffected ex-soldiers are the ones to have taken over 11 Haitian towns and cities, and that the opposition has disavowed violence, we have lost our enthusiasm for the overthrow of President Aristide, who has exploited his own people for nothing in return. He needs to go, but if the genuine opposition is against violence as a means of his removal, we must respect their wishes.

  • CNN says the US has reached bilateral agreement with Liberia to board Liberia registry ships in the high seas as an anti-terror measure. Liberia, with 2000 vessels under its flag is second only to Panama in shipping tonnage. Oddly, Panama says it is not negotiating a similar agreement with the US. London shipping sources say the US has decided on a bilateral approach as faster and more productive than a multilateral accord. They add the US has been stopping and boarding ships around the world, agreement or not - and legal or not - but the Liberia agreement will put boardings on a "friendlier" level.

0300 GMT February 13, 2004

  • Jang of Pakistan says work on linking Chaman, Quetta [Pakistan] with Kandahar in Afghanistan continues. The Prime Minister has instructed Pakistan Railways to start work on an eventual link between this new rail line and the port of Gwadar on the western Makran coast. This will give Pakistan control of cargo traffic to and from Afghanistan and the former Soviet Muslim Republics.  Pakistan is already connected to the Iranian network by a rail lines that runs through northern Baluchistan, but at present there is no link in Pakistan between this line and the Arabia Sea

  • NPR reports Iraqi Ayatollah Sistani remains open to the idea of a transfer of power delay so that direct elections can be arranged; the US too has been making noises about a possible delay. The UN is talking to Sistani officials and BBC reports UN Secretary General Annan is is optimistic about a compromise. [Orbat.com notes that Ayatollah Sistani's public posture shows no sign of  compromise].

  • Washington Post reports that the Haiti National Police has an authorized strength of 5,000, but because of personnel losses, has fallen to 3,000. The police are said to be incapable of dealing with the violence. Instead, a pro-Aristide militia has been "aiding" the police. The uprising is nothing more than another militia. It was previously allied with Aristide, and known for its extortion rackets and drug smuggling. Agencies say the anger and disaffection against president Aristide is genuine and widespread, but  the political opposition is firmly opposed to violence.

  • BBC says pro-Aristide groups have forced the opposition to cancel a protest march in the capital. The opposition is concerned about pro-Aristide groups using the march as an excuse to incite violence.

  • BBC reports a fresh rebellion in Ethiopia, and says Western Sudan rebels claim to have begun a counteroffensive just days after the Sudan government said the rebels had been crushed.

  • We have no further news of developments in the Iran elections crisis.

 

 

0330 GMT February 12, 2004

  • BBC has not updated today its Haiti reports.

  • Jang of Pakistan carries a news report from an unidentified agency which says that President Khatami of Iran spoke to thousands of supporters on the 25th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, and warned hardliners that the youth of the country would lose faith in religion if the hardliners did not let democracy function. The report said the crows showed no great interest in the president's word because the Iranian people have heard him promise without delivering too many times.

  • The IRNA of Iran report of the  speech is couched in such vague and harmless terms that had we not read the Jang story, we would not know what IRNA was talking about. This raises the question: naturally one tends to assume that IRNA, the official news agency of Iran,  is playing down the President's criticism; but what if the reporting news agency -  quite likely Jang's preferred source, the AFP, is overstating what the President said?

  • CNN says a US appointed military lawyer for the defense said that Mr. Bin Laden's Afghanistan chauffer is now in US custody, after being held by Afghan forces for two years. The chauffer readily acknowledges being Mr. Bin Laden's employee, but says he was just that and no more. He denies being a member of Al Qaeda or involvement in terrorism.

  • Haaretz of Israel says Israeli forces killed 15 Palestinians with no casualties to themselves in two raids into Gaza. The IDF has said it went in to root out terror squads operating from Gaza.

  • US agencies say that the State Department spokesperson told reporters that the US has been sharing N-proliferation information with Pakistan for years, and since last October as said by President Musharraf. The President says he had suspicions for 3 years, but the US never gave him proof. When the US did, he acted. Maybe, he speculated, the US should have given him proof.

  • Orbat.com comment If the CIA can blatantly lie about the daring operations it mounted to get inside Dr. Khan's network, the Pakistan President is certainly entitled to lie by saying he did not know what was going on.

 

0330 GMT February 11, 2004

Haitian Police Retake Grand Goave, UN Warns of Humanitarian Crisis

  • BBC reports Haitian police retake city of Grand Goave, and may have retaken Dondon, which was held by rebels only for a brief time. Government supporters have erected barricades in Cape Haitien, the country's 2nd largest city, to thwart rebels who might attempt entry.

  • Meanwhile, the UN warns that the fighting is interfering with the distribution of relief supplies and food on which the population depends for its survival; the situation could shortly turn serious.

  • IRNA of Iran laconically reports that the Guardian's Council [a non-elected watchdog to ensure the religious sanctity of the Iranian Revolution] has cleared candidates for the February 20th elections. Other sources say that President Khatemi has apparently conceded defeat in his battle with the GC, which started the crisis by disqualifying so many reform candidates that the return of the conservatives to power was a forgone conclusion. The President has said that contrary to prior statements, the government would hold the elections as scheduled and not boycott them.

  • Haaretz of Israel reports that French authorities have confirmed they are investigating transfers of $11.5 million to Mrs. Arafat's accounts in Paris, where she resides. The investigation is being conducted under money laundering laws. Mr. Arafat denies there is any corruption within the Palestine Authority, but donor payments to the PA have fallen because of corruption allegations. Naturally, we at Orbat.com are shocked, shocked at these charges. We've seen estimates that up to $1 billion worth of donor money may have been have been siphoned off by Mr. Arafat. Of course, unlike Dr. AQ Khan who was putting hundreds of millions of dollars into his personal accounts, Mr. Arafat has undoubtedly used a significant fraction of his loot to stay in power. We think its rather bad taste for Mrs. Arafat to live in Paris while ordinary people suffer immense hardships in Palestine. But then what do we know, we're from Iowa.

  • Jang of Pakistan quotes an unnamed wire service that the top NATO commander, a US Marine Corps general, is surprised at the extent to which the Taliban is running out of energy. He believes there are perhaps 1000 fighters left; nonetheless, he cautiously says the real measure of the Taliban's capabilities will become apparently only after the spring thaw. NATO hopes to have five more NATO manned Provincial Reconstruction Teams in Afghanistan before next June's election, though apparently no firm identification of contributors has been made.

  • UK Financial Times says that Britain and France have proposed an EU Rapid Reaction force consisting of 1500 soldier battlegroups and want agreements from all members by June 30. The force will become operational by 2007. One battlegroup will be expected to deploy within 15 days, under UN mandate if necessary. The new plan replaces an older plan for a rapid reaction corps of 60,000 personnel because the EU Nations dont have the troops.

  • Orbat.com comment We have great admiration for the Europeans, but if anyone thinks Mr. Donald Rumsfeld's comments about "Old Europe" were unkind, the above proves he was being too generous. All except 3 of the US Army's divisions are on overseas duty or rotating. If Europe thinks a 1500 soldier battlegroup in 15 days is "Rapid Reaction", and if this continent that has a GNP equaling that of the US and a larger population cannot even put together a 3-division corps, we suggest the EU disband its armies and pay India and Pakistan to provide troops for European defense and interests.  For what the EU pays 1 soldier it would get 4, and Indian and Pakistani troops never complain, no matter what the hardships. Always providing, of course, their battalion officers share the hardships with them, and the battalion officers always do. Orbat.com is happy to provide free a list of 15 Indian and 8 Pakistani divisions that could be made available for oversees deployment. Our scheme has the benefit of removing from the arena the strike forces and reserves of both sides: A South Asian war would become impossible. We think the EU should use some of its savings to pay Orbat.com. Clearly we have better ideas.

0330 GMT February 10, 2004

Haitian Police Retake Port of St. Marc

  • BBC reports Haitian police have retaken the port of St. Marc, but violence has spread to ten towns. Most of the 200,000 people of Gonaives have fled and the police have been unable to regain the city. An opposition leader says while he does not support violence, international intervention must take place to make President Aristide step down [full-circle, as a decade ago violence forced Mr. Aristide to flee, to be reinstated by a US led UN force.] Meanwhile, France, the United States and the UN have asked for a cool down. Orbat.com information is the French are drawing up contingency plans for military intervention, but that as of now its simply the planning any well-prepared military would undertake in the situation.

  • Agencies say the UN mission to Iraq may attempt a compromise on the handover/elections plans. It has been meeting with as many sides as possible and is hearing opinion for and against a delay.

  • Agencies say the Palestine Authority has decided it cannot let Mr. Sharon dictate the Israel-Palestine agenda any more. In response to his separation plan, the PA is considering two options: a unilateral declaration of independence followed by an appeal for international recognition, or a unilateral declaration that since the Palestinian people are not permitted their own state by Israel, they have decided to join Israel whether Israel wants it or not.

  • News of the Somewhat Absurd Jang of Pakistan reports that President Khatemi of Iran told Prince Charles that he favored a quick handover of power to the people in Iraq. Normally, we'd be making much of Mr. Khatemi, because he hasn't managed to persuade his masters to hand over power to the Iranian people. We restrain ourselves, however, because President Khatemi's statement was a prof forma and ritual one, and also because so much is happening there about which we are clueless. So we relegate the statement to the Somewhat Absurd category.

  • News of the Really Absurd Jang of Pakistan carries an "op-ed" saying America shouldn't be surprised at Dr. A.Q Khan's quick pardon, because - after all -  pardons are not unknown in America. The cases mentioned include the US N-scientist Oppenheimer, Dr. Wen Ho Lee,  Casper Wienburger, and Richard Nixon. The op-ed does not explain how, when, and where Oppenheimer was pardoned, in fact, it lists a series of punishments meted out to him for insufficient enthusiasm in pushing for nuclear weapons after the war. We not aware that Dr. Lee was pardoned: we thought he was indicted in what the judge thought was an illegal, shoddy and unfair manner, and so dismissed the case. Mr. Wienburger was pardoned because he was one of the most upright and honest civil servants America has had post 1945, and because he was caught in a situation where he had to either betray his President or ignore a rather strange law restricted the President's prerogative to conduct foreign policy. As for Mr. Nixon, he was pulled down,  humiliated, and  destroyed, all because he okayed snooping on the opposition - a heinous crime which obviously never happens in Jang's area of the world.

  • Orbat.com comment   We detail the Jang story because we want westerners in general and Americans in particular to understand why Pakistanis hate America so much. We are great admirers of Jang. We think it has better foreign news coverage than any Indian newspaper. Its revelations on the Khan Affair have been exceptional considering the popular support Dr. Khan enjoys. Nonetheless, we'd like Jang to see why few thinking people in America or in India think the Pakistanis have nothing that makes sense to say. The op-ed may be balm to the outraged Pakistani nation, but when you make a case using completely wrong facts, its not called journalism, its called propaganda, and rather unconvincing propaganda at that.

 

0300 GMT February 9, 2004

Insurrection in Haiti

  • While we've been obsessing about Dr. AQ Khan of Pakistan, an insurrection has begun in Haiti. After months of demonstrations in which about 60 people have been killed failed to convince President Aristide to quit, armed groups have seized control of at least two cities, forcing the police out in gun battles. [Haiti's army was disbanded by the UN intervention force that arrived in 1994.] AP and other agencies report that when the police counter-attacked at Gonaives, the 4th largest city, they were beaten back with at least 7 killed versus 2 rebels, unconfirmed reports speak of higher police casualties. Locals enthusiastically lynched one captured police officer by putting large stones on home, and mutilated the bodies of at least 3 other officers. The port city of St. Marc is also in rebel hands. The police are said to have deserted six other cities, and the insurgents have been burning police stations.

  • BBC reports that Haiti's main opposition parties do no back the insurrection, believing that those involved involved are little more than armed gangs. The opposition parties favor continuing dialog with President Aristide, who is accused of rigging the 2000 election. The issue has not been settled to this day, and the President insists he will serve to the end of his term in 2006.

  • BBC says a UN fact-finding mission has arrived in Iraq to discuss the question of if elections can be held as planned by June 30. The mission met with the Iraqi Governing Council; however, Shia members of the council were absent.

  • Agencies say that while NATO has agreed to expand its mission in Afghanistan, timings and details are scarce. Adding 6000 troops to the ISAF, which operates many in Kabul, is an option frequently discussed.

  • Jane's Defense Weekly says the US has cleared an $830 million deal for a missile detection radar and two warning stations in North Taiwan. As funding is available, another radar and two warning stations will be set up in South Taiwan. Jane's quotes the usual figure of 500 PRC ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan, but we have been told that the actual figure is not known to anyone except some intelligence agencies.

  • Washington Post says US troops have withdrawn from Fallujah after handing over control to the ICDC, which is having a difficult time policing the city because numbers of insurgents from outside keep appearing.

  • The Indian weekly Tehelka has done what may be the first ever poll of Indian Army soldiers - we'd be interested in knowing if the Government of India permitted the poll, or if Tehelka spoke to soldiers on its own. 65% reported they were afraid of a nuclear war with Pakistan. Orbat.com is not quite clear what the point of this question is, as any sane person should be afraid of nuclear war. 54% of officers surveyed in the 1600 soldier poll supported Indian participation in a US led Iraq force; only 13% of enlisted men supported such participation. Again, we are not quite clear on the point of this question. Indian troops even in peacetime are forced to ensure long tours of duty under harsh conditions, and continuing CI ops in Kashmir and the Northeast, plus the year long mobilization for Operation Parakram, have exhausted the men. Why would an Indian soldier want to go on another open-ended deployment, this time in a foreign land? Further, since when is asking soldiers if they want to do Job X or Y or Z a productive exercise?

0300 GMT February 8, 2004

[We apologize for missing the February 7 Update. A new venture we've embarked on unexpectedly came together; because of the different time zones we work in, all available time was taken up by emails going back and forth. We think Orbat.com readers will enjoy the new projects and we will keep readers informed as they develop.]

More Hints That Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons Capability May Be Under US Control

Dr. Khan, Episode V of the Story That Wont Die

  • Before we go into this story, readers need some background. Everything below is only what we have heard and no reader should assume that we have some special source. Nonetheless, readers will see that a lot of quite puzzling behavior on Washington and the Khan Affair, and very puzzling behavior on Washington's straight-faced insistence that President Musharraf is cooperating fully on N-proliferation, will now start making sense.

  • Once America decided to go after Bin Laden in Afghanistan, it asked for and thought it was given assurances of Pakistani cooperation. When Washington found out that the Pakistanis were simply playing games [natural for Pakistan should do since the Taliban was in great part Pakistan's creation and a critical element of its plan to assure its security against India], Washington went ballistic. The Pakistanis had assumed it was business as usual. They did not understand that Washington had declared war against Islamic fundamentalism the day of 9/11. They did not understand that the bureaucratic battles and lack of a clearly defined enemy had stifled America's action against the rise of Islamic fundamentalism, all came to a sudden end on 9/11. Washington was united, the dogs of war were straining at the leash.

  • We are told that the United States,  through several channels and in several ways, told Pakistan that it  had a short time [duration we do not know] to come on board on Washington's side - and that Washington would expect complete compliance - or else Pakistan would  pay a painful price.

  • The price's details we don't have.  We were told, however, that the threatened to destroy every nuclear installation in Pakistan - and that was going to be just the curtain rising. When these stories go around, there is always considerable exaggeration, but we, at least believe that the anti-nuclear strike really was just the first action threatened, and that essentially the US told Pakistan it was going to be downhill after that: power plants, industrial infrastructure, ports, everything would go because Pakistan had by its actions declared itself an enemy of the United States, and the Pakistanis should know from World War 2 when America unleashes its strength.

  •  Readers will remember President Musharraf's many statements when his opponents accused him of kowtowing to the US that he had absolutely no choice but to act as he did, and the above explains his statements.

  • The United States immediately locked down Pakistan's N-arsenal [or as your editor maintains, what passed for Pakistan's n-arsenal]. It took a whole series of other actions to ensure that Pakistan could not, under any circumstances, use it. We have even heard that there is no more Pakistani arsenal: its not just that its locked down, it has been rendered inoperative - again, we have no confirmation.

  • The question now arises: why seize the Pakistan N-arsenal? Its not as if Pakistan could have used it against the US, not unless Pakistan wanted to be returned to the 12th Century AD.

  • Here is the really tricky part and we must frankly say that we have absolutely no idea if this is true. We also don't know the sequence of events. Roughly, however, it went like this:

  • Bin Laden was either negotiating previously with renegade Pakistan officers for a nuclear weapon, or started negotiating when he learned the Americans were coming for him.

  • Even we admit this bomb had the potential of creating a real disaster.  The thing about building a Plutonium bomb with reactor grade material, is that you get a highly unstable weapon. Once assembled, it can explode at any time, its yield could be a few hundred tons TNT equivalent, or tens of thousands. At the very least, the conventional explosives used to trigger the bomb could spread lethal radioactivity over a wide radius.

  • The US, then, had no choice but to act with utmost and swift ruthlessness in seizing the Pakistan N-arsenal. Pakistan cooperated, saving itself worse consequences. Naturally those involved could not give any hint of their surrender: the one thing that has kept Pakistan going is the belief held by everybody, including the armed forces, that they have nuclear weapons so that in the ultimate circumstances, not just India had better not mess with them, the US had better not mess with them.

  • To save face, a story was agreed on: America was merely helping Pakistan safeguard its arsenal. This story has been repeated a number of times, and we ask our readers one question. Since when does one nuclear power invite another to come help its safeguard its arsenal? Particularly when 96% of the smaller country's people are anti-American [poll taken in the 1980s showing Pakistan was the most American country in the world], and its armed forces are violently anti-American [why we'll explain another time].

  • If you go by this reconstruction - and we freely admit we could be wrong on most everything - you will understand why the US has been so casual about the Pakistan arsenal. It has taken Chidanand Rajghatta of the Times of India 2 1/2 years to figure this out - see his dispatch from Washington yesterday. We could have told him this and more long ago, but as he knows we're from Iowa, he believes we know nothing. But at least he did figure it out - other media people have not.

  • Now lets wrap this up. Where does the Khan Affair come into all this?

  • Dr. A.Q. Khan is just one of the highest Pakistani officials who, along with General Aslam Beg, believes that if God were just, he would burn America to the ground. Our readers would be surprised if they knew of the intense, bitter hatred many, many elite Muslims have against America. Its not just a bunch of misguided people who want to see America destroyed. Its big segments of the ruling elites of several "friends" and "allies" of America. The reason is if you keep beating a dog, when you are not looking, he will go for your throat. Rightly or wrongly, a great many Saudis and Pakistanis feel they have been treated as dogs by America, and thrashed simply for the fun of hearing them scream.

  • If Dr. Khan had any sense, he would have stayed quiet after 9/11. After all, the man has made several hundred million dollars for himself. But Dr. Khan, never very fond of America, has been doing a slow burn ever since the US came to Afghanistan. Its no sense discussing how America has been treating the Pakistani generals since 9/11, but it hasn't been kindly, and understandably so when we consider what some of those generals have been up to.

  • Dr. Khan has been boasting rather loudly that America would be fixed, and everyone would know who  had done the fixing when it was done. We personally find Dr. Khan quite harmless and amusing, and we believe he had no intention of following up and complicating life for himself. Nonetheless, to talk of bombs even when Pakistan's bombs have been rendered ineffective, is not a good idea.

  • Because put yourself in Washington's shoes. The Father of the Pakistan bomb and the virulently anti-American General Beg, have been discussing getting a bomb to the "right" people. Incidentally, though Dr. Khan is a bit of a clown, General Beg is not. He is a very tough man and no one who comes within ten kilometers of him remains unaware he wants only one thing for America: extinction. So lets say you are the CIA or whatever, and from dozens of sources come these reports.

  • Do you sit around like we do, saying forget it, there is no Pakistan bomb? Well, Washington does not have the liberty of treating the subject as a matter for academic debate. Washington is fairly certain it has everything that looks like a Pakistan bomb, but where is the 100% assurance Dr. Khan cant get something together for a client? The stakes are too high.

  • The solution: take out Dr. Khan. And its not enough to take him out, anyone of import in his circle must be neutralized. And that's exactly what's happened.

  • Meantime, we are told that the Pentagon at least is having a good snicker at the Washington Post's pompous editorials about General Musharraf, and its accusations that the US Government is being naive. The US is not worried about Pakistan bombs or proliferation because it has all parties exactly where it wants them. Its the Washington Post that needs to be less naive, not the Pentagon.

  • Personal appeal from Orbat.com to media: Can you all please stop flogging a dead horse? There is no story, there is no scandal. You think the story has just begun? Sorry, it ended a while ago, the snake was repeatedly stomped, and when it gave a little twitch, as Dr. Khan did, the US drove a steamroller over the snake. People, please go home: Orbat.com wants to go back to its business and has no time to waste explaining your foolishness to its readers. Get a grip, media, get a life.

 

0200 GMT February 3, 2004

  • President Bush orders independent inquiry into intelligence failures on Iraq WMD; Prime Minister Blair will follow suit.

  • Haaretz of Israel reports President Sharon of Israel says he has ordered a plan be made for the Gaza settlements to be vacated, but has not specified a time frame. Mr. Sharon says 7500 people, many third generation,  and "thousands" of square kilometers of orchards, vineyards, canning factories are involve. He hopes the settlers will understand that all Gaza territory will go to Palestine in a final settlement and their continued stay is not viable. Accordingly he hopes a negotiated agreement can be reached with the settlers. [Orbat.com is curious: did the Prime Minister misspeak on the area of the land involved? If not, how do 7500 people - or 8000 as the settlers say - get to own thousands of square kilometers. Thousands of hectares would be more reasonable, to out our mind.]

  • Haaretz continues to quote various people as saying Mr. Sharon has promised withdrawals many times before without effecting the slightest implementation and there is no reason to suppose this time is any different.

  • CNN says US is encouraged at Israel's "bold steps" statements. Orbat.com supposes that the least hint of possible reasonableness in the indefinite future in a  protégé as unruly as Israel would prove encouraging to a desperate Washington. In our opinion, however, Washington has a computer program to issue pro forma statements when the words "negotiations", "Palestine", and "Israeli officials" appear on the same page of a news report. Surely Washington is not taking Mr. Sharon's statements any more seriously than Mr. Sharon has taken his own previous statements.

  • Jang of Pakistan says former Army Chiefs of Staff Beg and Karamat are under interrogation in the N-technology scandal. Government has decided to charge at least 7 military officers and scientists; the charges will probably be under the Official Secrets Act [Orbat.com: the courts can exclude the public from such a trial.]

  • Reader Rahul Narang tells us the February 1st Times of India carried an article by its Washington correspondent saying that General Beg says he is ready to take on President Musharraf on the Dr. Khan article, and that the general spoke in confrontational tones.

  • Jang of Pakistan quotes officials as saying security has been beefed up even further outside Dr. A.Q. Khan's residence. Now the Army has also moved in. Orbat.com is curious: against whom is this protection being provided? It seems to us the Pakistan Army is protecting itself, not Dr. Khan.

  • BBC says that Iran's largest pro-reform party has said it will not participate in the coming election unless the ban on candidates is lifted. BBC opines this will leave the way clear for the hardliners to fill those seats uncontested. Orbat.com does not fully understand where the Iranian public stands, but reports indicate after years of dashed hopes for reforms, the ability of the conservatives to suppress dissent has led to public apathy.

On February 1 and 2 we carried specials on the Khan Affair in Pakistan. There was no regular update.