0245 GMT August 31, 2004

Another quiet day yesterday.

·         IRAQ Al-Sadr orders his militia to disarm and join the political mainstream; we remain unclear if this means anything.

·         Iran's Supreme Ayatollah says Imam Ali shrine's spiritual glory saved the shrine. No mention of Al-Sadr militia reduced to surrendering as they had no chance of surviving the planned assault.

·         Joseph Stefula sends an article from the UK Guardian that says UK forces have come under Al-Sadr militia attack hundreds of times during the Shia uprising. The softly-softly approach has failed; UK forces are confined to their bases and get mortared and rocketed daily. UK has decided not to retaliate in response to escalating attacks. This may be a good response, but while we are indeed sorry the UK approach has not worked in their AOR, we hope the British now understand what they are up against.

·         US Ambassador to Iraq requests $3 billion of US funds earmarked for infrastructure be shifted to security needs.

·         DEBKA ON THE AMERICAN AIRLINES NYC CRASH IN NOVEMBER 2001 Debka quotes a Canadian media sources to say the American Airlines crash on take-off in November 2001 was brought down by a shoe-bomber. According to the media source, the Canadian government has in custody a suspect whop seems to know a great deal about the crash.

0215 GMT August 30, 2004

This early morning there is little real news. We suppose even journalists are entitled to a day of rest, but we don't see why they should take it. We work around the year every day.

·         AL-SADR/BAGHDAD Iraq, US and Al-Sadr militia are in negotiations to end fighting in Baghdad's Sadr City. The clashes have continued for weeks, but were overshadowed by Najaf.

·         FRENCH JOURNALISTS Readers will be aware that 2 French journalists have just recently been taken hostage. Their captors say the hostages will be killed unless France cancels its ban on head scarves in public schools. French Muslims condemn the kidnapping.

·         Orbat.com comment: good work, brave kidnappers. The world needs more of your idiocy before it is convinced - as is the US government at least - that you have to be eliminated at all costs. May we suggest you kidnap some Americans and make some perfectly stupid demands for changes in the US's internal affairs? There are a lot of people in the US who still believe the US is at fault for alienating the Muslim world.

·         In your editor's opinion, each time a foreigner is kidnapped in Iraq, especially a western journalist, way too much space is given to the issue. We are very sorry for the families of the men and hope all ends well; which it will after the French have forked over the necessary amount of euros. At the same time, the media owes it to its readers to spend more time reporting news and not the fate of its community.

·         PAKISTAN John Lancaster of Washington Post, a reporter we trust for his accurate, balanced, and thoughtful analysis of India, writes that the Pakistan government is on the verge of losing its battles against terrorist movements, in part because President Musharraf still refuses to crack down on Kashmir terrorist groups.

·         Meanwhile, the redoubtable defense spokesperson valiantly continues to defend his government from behind ramparts of paper. Everything is under control, terrorists have been routed, Al Qaeda destroyed, etcetra - remember when he used to say there were NO foreign terrorists and Al-Qaeda in Pakistan.

·         In the Wana area, terrorists have taken to using roadside IEDs against Pakistan Army convoys. Good luck to the Pakistan government.

·         The way the Indians have for years been handling IEDs planted by Pakistan-based  terrorists is that every morning, without fail, "road-opening parties" of soldiers set out to search every meter of important roads and culverts for IEDs. The work is horribly labor intensive - one of the many reasons India has more than 100 security forces deployed versus 1 terrorist. And the work is mind-numbingly boring. Day after day after day the units assigned have to spend hours going over the same stretch of highway; any mistake, any sloppiness, any haste means people are going to get killed.

·         We estimate Pakistan might need 10 battalions in the Wana area alone to keep military roads clear. Pakistan's asymmetrical warfare worked beautifully against India in Kashmir; now the very same terrorists Pakistan trained are the ones planting IEDs.

·         Before India feels smug: the same thing happened to India. It created, financed, trained, and supplied the secessionist Sri Lanka LTTE [Tamil Tigers]. When the Indian Army went into Sri Lanka in 1987 at US request, as the country was in danger of being partitioned by the rebels, the Indians found their former pupils had learned well. There are recorded incidents of clashes in which LTTE fighters killed Indian soldiers, but lost men as POWs, and the POWs recognized individual officers who had trained them. This being South Asia, we heard that in at least two cases, the captives saluted the officers and anxiously asked for approval, saying: "Sir, did we not fight well against you?"

·         India exists in this universe and in other universes simultaneously. The above story may make no sense to Americans, it makes perfect sense to the Indians.

0230 GMT August 29, 2004

·         NAJAF/AL SADR An Iraq official says that some weapons have been turned in by the militia, but a militia official says the men have been told not to hand in their weapons. Yesterday we saw a report that said militiamen were stacking their weapons - at an Al-Sadr office. By refusing to disarm, the militia has already violated on the 3 ceasefire conditions.

·         We hear nothing about Al-Sadr's whereabouts.

·         The Washington Post writes and editorial with which we unusually agree. It notes this is the third time Al-Sadr has "capitulated" when cornered. The problem, as the WashPost says, is that Al-Sadr may start thinking he can get away again, leading him to force yet another confrontation with Iraq/US. The Post notes ironically that the US is stuck with the bill for rebuilding central Najaf.

·         Our personal concern is: what effect does this "settlement" have on the Sunni insurgency? And in Baghdad, at least, the Al-Sadr lot continue to tangle with US/Iraq forces.

·         We had believed most emphatically that this time the Iraqis would not let Al-Sadr go. Time for us to own up to our error.

·         We also don't understand why the Iraqis felt they had only two options, equally bad: storm the shrine or let the militia go. Why could the siege not have continued, without the US continuing to level everything in sight? Sooner or later those inside would have given up.

·         Please note we are NOT saying what the Iraqis have done is stupid. We are sure they had reasons - but what those reasons are are not known to us.

·         RUSSIAN JETLINERS Reuters reports Russians have found traces of explosive on the second passenger aircraft. They identify it as hexogen, an explosive that has been used in previous terrorist attacks. AFP says a Russian expert estimates 50 grams of the substance - two ounces - would suffice to crash an airliner.

·         Two women with Chechen last names who boarded the flight [or flights, we are unclear], one of whom was the last passenger on board her flight, are under investigation. Alone of all passengers, no family member of the two women has contacted the airlines to whom the aircraft belong.

·         AFP notes that while the Russian authorities have not identified possible perpetrators, the Russian press is convinced Chechen rebels were responsible.

·         Readers will recall the terrorists who seized the Moscow theatre included a large percentage of Chechen war widows.

·         We confess we had not thought of this angle. Why use suicide bombers if the only objective is to blow up the aircraft? But as of now, it appears that this is what happened.

·         Chechnya is to hold elections in five days, and Russian authorities were concerned that rebels might seek to disrupt the process.

·         IRAN UPDATE [Nicholas Krazin] Iranian journalist Mostafa Darban and his two Iraqi crewmen have been released by the Iraqi Interior ministry, after almost two weeks in custody. Darban says he still does not know why he was arrested, but he believes it was a misunderstanding.

·         Three days after the assumed terrorist airplane downing in Russia, Iranian President Mohammad Khatami contacted President Putin to send his regrets. Khatami did not mention the word Terrorism at all, and simply calling it an ‘air disaster.’

 

0400 GMT August 28, 2004

·         NAJAF We are unclear why we are wasting our readers' time as well as ours on Najaf. The militia is out of the shrine - relatively few were inside toward the end, anyway - and while a few have given up their weapons, most fighters have left with weapons intact. Further, its not clear to whom the few weapons were surrendered. They could have been given to a militia collecting point to secure them for future action.

·         CONGRATULATIONS TO KARL VICK OF WASHPOST Karl Vick of the Washington Post wrote a great article yesterday, explaining how the US fought the Najaf campaign. He says while the shrine is intact, the combat area has been leveled and desolated. He notes that the US didn't go into Iraqi cities during Gulf II (and presumably after) because of the fear of casualties. But now the US has destroyed inner Najaf at the cost of 11 dead, while the militia has suffered hundreds of dead and was defeated. By the use of precision artillery, helicopter, and fighter support, combined with snipers, the US proceeded to systematically clear the area in house-to-house fighting - without the ground forces having to fight for every house. Vick's understanding of the basics of the situation is good, and his analysis, made so close to the campaign's end shows good on-the-spot analytical abilities.

·         AL-SADR  In response to the general merrymaking about the crisis having ended, please note that Al-Sadr and his militia are quite intact, and with a few months training for old and new recruits, will become even more effective. But at least Al-Sadr should understand that seizing a shrine did not save him or his men. Had they not fled, they all would have been captured or killed.

·         TECHNOLOGY The US probably used new technologies such as micro-UAVs in the Najaf fighting, but its useful to note that a whole new generation of urban warfare technologies is coming on line. This includes robots and new sensors which further reduce the vulnerability of the infantry. One is reminded of Tom Winteringham's classic "Weapons and Tactics", how new weapons force the development of new tactics, and new tactics require new weapons.

·         The prognosis for infantry survival on the early 21st Century battlefield were grim, so lethal had weapons become. Now the balance is shifting the other way. The infantry is not just surviving, but with GPS, new sensors, micro UAVs, networking each soldier, new battlefield computers to usefully analyze and employ the huge amounts of data made available by the new sensors, improved body armor etc. the infantry is back on the battlefield with a bang.

·         Please note the US is also developing machine exoskeletons for its infantry. The individual soldier will be able to lift hundreds of kilograms of gear and equipment, and march long distances over hill and dale, through river and swamp, etc. without exhaustion. The exoskeletons will, of course, be armored, and will eventually have weapons the infantryman will use to extend his range and volume of fire. Star Wars will become earth wars.

·         Incidentally, your editor for long has said that robots cannot replace humans on the battlefield because its so much cheaper to use human brains and bodies. But: the US has ingeniously embarked on combining the best of the human with the best of the robot. Twenty years from, rifle battalions will inflict more damage than divisions do today, and casualties, which have already fallen by an order of magnitude, will fall another order of magnitude. The US will be able to fight endless wars without losing lives.

·         we wonder if Mr. Bin Ladin etc are thinking about how this will affect their tactics. with the new weapons, Fallujah and Najaf could have been cleared a long time ago.

·         RUSSIA CRASHES Jerry M forwards an article from the St. Petersburg Times that gives more data indicating bombs and not hijackers were responsible. One plane was flying from Moscow to Volvograd, and went down just 200 km from Moscow. Eyewitnesses said they heard an explosion before the plane crashed. The other was flying from Moscow to Sochi, and went down 30 minutes from its destination, say about 400 km short of Sochi. The debris was spread over a large area, suggesting a mid-air explosion.

·         Tim Hartigan points out that we cannot rule out the possibility hijackers were involved, insofar as hijackers may had explosives and have threatened to detonate the explosives unless they were given access to the cockpit.

·         Mr. Hartigan's point has a solid fact in support: the second flight triggered an anti-hijack alarm. The first did not.

·         So we could postulate a scenario in which at least the Sochi flight was hijacked, the crew refused to open the cockpit door, and the hijackers figured that as they were not going to get to crash the plane into Mr. Putin's villa at Sochi, might as well end the whole thing there.

·         The problem with the Debka thesis that the villa was the target of both the aircraft is that how were the potential hijackers to know if Mr. Putin was in the villa at the time of their planned suicide run? Also, a villa is going to be hard to hit compared to the Twin Towers and the Pentagon. In view of the huge uncertainty about Mr. Putin's presence, why not do something spectacular and crash the second plane into a more dramatic target?

·         Apparently security for both aircraft was tight because of earlier problems.

1100 GMT August 27, 2004

[2nd Update]

·         AL-SADR EPISODE XC Agencies say Al-Sadr asked his followers to surrender arms and leave the shrine of Imam Ali and Najaf/Kufa.

·         THE FARCE CONTINUES Though agencies such as AP speak of Al-Sadr as if he is in the shrine, the three journalists inside have not said for days that they have seen Al-Sadr. This at a time when the militia was imprisoned in the shrine itself, having been beaten out of the surrounding areas. His announcement was broadcast over loudspeakers; no agency has said they saw him make the announcement. So as of now, we have no indication that Al-Sadr is in Najaf.

·         Next, while some militia were seen by agencies to be handing in their weapons, it is unclear to whom. Iraq government says it has set up three collection points, but no one has turned in weapons.

·         Further, guess who is policing entry of worshippers to the shrine? You get zero points if you correctly guessed - Al-Sadr militia. And guess what they have done with their arms. Zero points if you correctly guessed - the militiamen carry their arms.

·         Still further, agencies report militia leaders as saying they will not disarm. Militia is hiding weapons in Najaf, or taking them out of the city.

·         The inference is inescapable: Al-Sadr does not control his militia, if he ever did. It would seem that the militia controls him.

·         So: we welcome the "agreement" [Think Dr. Evil in Austin Powers], and look forward to Al-Sadr Episode XCI: The Saga Continues.

·         RUSSIA JETLINERS Agencies say one of the two Russian planes that crashed has traces of explosives. This would confirm one part of the news first broken by Debka.com, that terrorist action was responsible for at least one crash. It would also disprove the other part of Debka's thesis, that the plane was hijacked. Suicide hijackers do not need explosives to crash a plane.

2230 GMT August 27, 2004

·         KUFA The great freedom fighters of Iraq struck another blow today, this time targeting civilian peace marchers responding to Ayatollah Al-Sistani call for the people of Najaf to peacefully recover the shrine of Imam Ali. Clearly, the "civilian" marchers were puppets of the imperialist Americans and their puppet Iraqi government. By killing 74 and wounding 300 in a mortar attack and by gunfire, the great freedom fighters prevented the American desecration of the holy shrine. The great freedom fighters no doubt vowed to every last peaceful Iraqi to eject the Americans and their puppets from Iraq. Great job, fellows, medals for everyone and a special seat in heaven.

·         Great job nothing. Get these scum, do not bother detaining them, a single bullet for each suffices to gain for them their just reward.

·         NAJAF Agencies say Ayatollah Al-Sistani has reached a deal with Al-Sadr, agreed to by the Iraq government, for Al-Sadr to go free without fear of arrest. Nothing is being said about the militia left in the shrine.

·         We sincerely hope that Al-Sadr accepts this deal, because he will be killed at the first opportunity. But going by past events, so far he has been too wily to be trapped into false deals.

·         NEWS OF THE ABSURD An exultant Iraqi peace demonstrator told the media that the march was democracy in action, and was delivering the biggest defeat suffered by the Americans.

·         Excuse us, Sir. Please resume taking your happy pills. In case you've forgotten, its the Americans who enabled you to have democracy. and if you are exercising your democratic rights, you have played completely and totally into American hands, because exercising your democratic rights is exactly what they want you to do. You are in effect, an American puppet!

·         Side note: devilishly cunning, these Americans! They are getting at least this one Iraqi to follow their wishes, and he thinks he is defeating them! Absolutely brilliant

·         Further side note: there are moments we get so exasperated by [rude word] mouthed Iraqis, that we too join - for a minute or two at least - those Iraqis who long for the days of Saddam. The old boy would have had our demonstrator, his family, his friends, brutally tortured and then shot. At least we wouldn't have to tolerate America-hating idiots.

·         Further further side note: yes, yes, we know. Being a wise imperial power is not easy. You do so much for the natives and all you get is ingratitude. we suppose the Americans too will get their reward in heaven, as they flit around in unisex white robes playing harps. Thank goodness your editor was able to contact the Devil and beg the latter to make sure your editor goes to the downstairs place. Hate to say this, but terrorist heaven seems much more interesting...

·         DEBKA ON RUSSIAN AIRLINERS Debka.com says both Russian airliners that crashed sent signals they were being hijacked. Their target was President Putin's vacation resort at Sochi on the Black Sea.

·         Message to terrorists: now look, fellows, be reasonable. You want to die, be our guest. But why are you taking innocent people down with you? Do you even know where President Putin's villa is in Sochi? And does it occur to you that even if you did, a hijacked airliner is not a PGM?

·         Of course, our rant supposes the Debka report is true in all parts.

·         BALUCHISTAN Jang of Pakistan indirectly confirms what we were told about fighting in Pakistan's Baluchistan province, between tribals resisting new cantonments that Islamabad is building for army forces to protect US bases. The corps commander [We assume GOC XII Corps, Quetta] says that the terrorists have fled the Gwader area and hinterland. The corps commander visited three towns, Gwadar [on the Makran coast], Kharan, and Dalbindan. The locals at Dalbindin pressed the corps commander to take their land for an army base as the base would help them prosper.

·         Now, we firmly maintain that the Pakistan government has the right to build bases on its territory as it sees best. But can we tone down the speaking out of both sides of the mouths, please? First the government tells Parliament there is no fighting going on; now not only are we being told the rebels have been defeated, and that the locals are so grateful that they positively insist on giving the government that same land they were fighting over so that army bases would not come up.

2215 GMT August 26, 2004

·         NAJAF The news so far includes the same items given by us yesterday. That means no news is being allowed out of the conflict area. Air strikes continue for a fifth day [early Thursday morning, Iraq Time].

·         An AFP correspondent is still inside the shrine. He spoke with a wounded militiamen who said the militia cannot shoot any more because the Americans will pick up militia positions and attack from the air.

·         An Al-Sadr aide has been arrested; he and three men with him were carrying a "centuries old" tablet engraved with Koranic verses, taken from the shrine, and $40,000 in cash.

·         Fighting in neighboring Kufa continues, but we are speaking of tens of casualties, which is relatively insignificant.

·         ABU GHARIB More reports have been released  saying that up to 23 Army intelligence soldiers were directly or indirectly involved in prisoner abuse. We note this does not exonerate the personnel who are currently on trial: some sought to implicate MI, but in their case, the abuse  was simply good, clean fun.

·         NEWS OF THE ABSURD Lawyers for an Australian on trial as an enemy combatant questioned the competence of the 5-member tribunal, and claimed one member was prejudiced as he was friendly with the general who wrote the report. Yo, homies, where do you think you are, in a criminal court in the US? You're in front of a military tribunal, you know the kind that operates under military law? Slightly different rules. Enemy combatant = the hangman. Simple equation. Though, of course, the Americans have gone soft in these matters. The accused will probably be convicted and sent back to serve his time in a reasonably comfy Oz prison.

·         We had another laugh the other day. Lawyers for the ring-leader of the abusers in 372nd MP Company asked that evidence collected from his computers - photographs mainly - should be suppressed because his consent was not obtained for the search. The judge threw that motion out right quick.

·         To explain why these lawyers are acting like brainy jellyfish, we have to see that the US soldiers are being defended by military lawyers appointed by the court. Many of them enter the JAG branch for 4 year stints because it provides great experience for the youngsters aspiring to be crack federal prosecutors one day. These people are highly educated. They watch too much court TV.

·         EQUATORIAL GUINEA COUP: DEEPER INTO THE MURK Gareth Bowman writes: "Two unusual names have come up as having allegedly funded the recent - and failed - coup attempt: Jeffrey Archer, Baron of
Western-super-Mare, a disgraced Tory member of the House of Lords, who recently was released from prison for perjury; and the son of former prime minister Margaret Thatcher, Sir Mark Thatcher, 2nd Baronet.

·         Mark Thatcher became notorious after apparently receiving millions of pounds from the Al Yamamah defense contract with Saudi Arabia whilst his mother was prime minister. Thatcher currently resides in South Africa,
and has been arrested under the South African Foreign Military Assistance Act, which bans SA residents from supporting unauthorized military action in other countries. Both men claim their innocence. A top plotter in the coup is a former SAS  officer, Simon Mann,  who went to Eton with  Mark Thatcher and he has claimed that the Spanish government was also involved.

·         In case anyone is interested: Archer is known as Lord Archeras. He was created a life peer by PM John Major for service to politics. Mark Thatcher is
Sir Mark on account of his mother becoming an hereditary peer after leaving 10 Downing street.  The hereditary part indicates that offspring are entitled
to elevated status. A life peer does not have the same effect for its holder's children, and Thatcher's daughter does not have any title as she's a woman and ranks lower in precedence.

 

1145 GMT August 25, 2004

[2nd Update]

·         NAJAF AFP reports that US troops have broken through the last militia defenses; one tank was reported to be just 20 yards away from the shrine. American snipers are preventing anyone from leaving of entering the shrine. We assume AFP is talking about the compound of the shrine and not the shrine itself.

·         Besieged militia have closed all 4 doors to the shrine. The estimate of 500 militia inside that we gave earlier may include the women and children inside; the number of militia may be less than 200.

·         Orbat.com notes that AFP makes no mention of Al-Sadr as being inside the shrine; it has a correspondent inside. Also, there have been no fiery statements from the young cleric in the last few days.

·         AYATOLLAH SISTANI AFP says Grand Ayatollah Sistani arrived in Iraq via Kuwait, escorted by Iraq security forces. We assume he in or around Najaf at this time.

·         Officially he has come to negotiate the surrender of the militia, and we are sure he will negotiate. What is not clear to us is why the militia should listen to him: Al-Sadr specifically challenged Al-Sistani's authority by taking over the shrine, and have ignored all appeals by him to leave the area.

·         Further, it is not clear to us what happens if some of the militia want to surrender to Al-Sistani as a face-saving alternative to being killed. We cannot imagine any one will be allowed to leave from inside.

·         IRAN MILITANTS? We offer this as pure intuition: Al-Sadr militia has departed the shrine/Najaf to fight another day.

·         Those inside may be the Iranians sent to fight under cover of the Al-Sadr militia. In which case all negotiation is futile. The men are responsible not to Al-Sadr, certainly not to Al-Sistani, but to Iranian clerics. This speculation would explain why this last lot is so adamant.

·         Given that the Najaf siege is headed toward complete defeat for the militants, Tehran's purposes - which are not automatically always coincident with Al-Sadr's - may still be served to an extent if the shrine is heavily damaged during the final assault. Not to speak of damage the besieged themselves can inflict under cover of the assault

0215 GMT August 25, 2004

·         NAJAF With different sources saying different things, we are forced to give the best composite picture we can come up with.

·         First One company of the 36th Battalion, ING, has closed in to 200 yards of the shrine; this is the first time Iraqi forces have been deployed ahead of US troops. US Marines are also reducing the circumference of their perimeter, and may be around 300-350 yards from the shrine.

·         Second Much of the militia has been killed or has decided to quit. Many militiamen have been caught trying to escape, but many seem to have got through. Though no definitive estimate of the militia strength has been given, at the start of this operation there were between 1000 and 1500 militia. These included reinforcements that arrived in Najaf after the spring fighting, to swell the ranks of the much depleted militia. Many reinforcements reached Najaf in this round of fighting, but the cordon is now impermeable - unless there are tunnels which have not been discovered and sealed. As the Americans started to close in, however, and as negotiators dithered, many militiamen decided they were not going to be the fall guys for Al-Sadr, and began an exodus. At this time there may be no more than 500 militia left.

·         Third Washington Post interviews with a few officers in the field confirm our previously stated thesis that Baghdad really has complete control over this operation. The Americans have their own angles, but even raids and positioning of armor have to be cleared by Baghdad. The Iraqis are not just deeply involved in the planning, they are giving the orders. The Post says US commanders are content with playing second fiddle: they want the Iraqis to handle this the best they can.

·         Fourth From the Post story and many others we are confident that US commanders and field grade officers are perfectly aware the outcome in Iraq as a whole is going to be decided by political means and not with military force. The Big Stick has to be used, but only to get rebels to return to the table. We've been hearing about the incompetence of the Americans in Iraq, and have done our share in bringing it to our readers' attention. Nonetheless, we have been careful to distinguish between civilian Americans and military ones. From the start the military has shown a confident understanding of the complexities. US 3rd Army is about the most highly educated army to take the field, and people in general should avoid stereotyping  American officers a la Dr. Strangelove.

·         IRAN & IRAQ Mr. Joseph Stefula has sent us two detailed articles from Defense and Foreign Affairs Daily about Iran's actions in Iraq. While we disagree with some parts of the DFAD thesis - that Iran is provoking a war with the US - the publication is worth reading because it contains much information on Iranian agents and fighters operating inside Iraq. Nonetheless, we would caution readers to be careful in accepting DFAD's thesis about these operations: read the publication for news and data.

·         QUESTION FOR THE ASSASSINS Assassins failed to kill two targeted Iraq ministers. As usual they rushed to claim credit, and as usual their announcement is along the lines of "You scumbagas escaped but we have many arrows, and by the grace of the Divine, we will get you next time."

·         Our question to the assassins is this: "Are you sure it wasn't the Divine's wish that you fail?"

0215 GMT August 24, 2004

·         NAJAF Reader Joseag238 sends us a better summary of the Najaf situation than the major news agencies:

·         According to KCAL news ch. 9,

US tanks, Bradley armored and Cavalry troops move toward to Al Imam shrine by 200 feet.

Several militant snipers and building were seized by 11th MEU, which advanced toward shrine by 170 feet, Reuters told KCAL via phone interview.

Najaf police captured 67 Sadr militant who were fleeing city.

US 1st CavDiv captured 209 Sadr militant after militant fail to storm police station in Kufa where suspects held at police station. Kufa is under control by US force, ING and Kufa police.

·         AL-SADR CNN reports that Najaf police chief says Al-Sadr fled Najaf on August 15, and is now about 260 km north east of Baghdad, near the Iran border. The chief produced a piece of paper as proof, but CNN does not tell us what is on the paper.
 

 

0200 GMT August 23, 2004

·         NAJAF Agencies report heavy fighting in Najaf and Kufa as US tightens cordon around shrine and militia suspends shrine handover modalities. We've mentioned earlier that the handover does not mean Al-Sadr militia will leave and disarm: Al-Sadr says they will continue protecting shrine against the Americans.

·         Kufa is a suburb of Najaf, though it was a separate city before it and Najaf began to grow. Some Iraqis consider Kufa to be the more holy because Imam Ali was murdered at Kufa even though his mausoleum is at Najaf. Much of the action reported in the last few days has taken place at Kufa. This is true also of Sunday's battles.

·         Readers should note that as the fighting edges closer to the shrine, there is a danger of damage not just by misdirected fire, but also by blast. The Marines have been using 155mm howitzers; the AC-130s have been using their 105mm howitzers; Apaches have been firing missiles and rockets; and Marine aviation has been dropping bombs.

·         POSSIBLE REACTION TO ASSAULT ON SHRINE While every media source keeps repeating any damage to the shrine or attack on the shrine will result in widespread anger and unforeseen consequences in the Muslim world, we are starting to think a bit differently.

·         Those that are going to be angry are already angry, and in our opinion most Muslims understand Al-Sadr is creating the problem here. We don't see much evidence that the Muslim world is angry at the Iraq government's attempts to reassert control over Najaf: not even the radicals can deny that Baghdad has to kick Al-Sadr out. The anger is because of the Americans: had the Americans not been in Iraq and Al-Sadr had revolted, we doubt the story would have made headlines.

·         Now, we don't see how anger at the Americans can get worse. They are now parked at distances of 300 meters and up from the compound; heavy fighting has taken place within 800 meters; and the area is cordoned off. Why should the Muslim world get more angry if the Americans merely support an Iraqi attack? We may be quite wrong,  but we believe the worst has already come to pass.

·         We do suggest, however, that the US/Iraq go in and finish the matter in six hours. It is now becoming more important to end the standoff than to worry about damage to the shrine.

·         SOMALIA After years of anarchy, the Somali parliament met at Nairobi. Some differences remain to be ironed out, but the parliament is to proceed without representatives from Somaliland and Puntland, the breakaway provinces.

·         IRAN REACTOR Debka.com says the criticality date for Iran's Russian-built reactor has slipped to October 2006.

0400 GMT August 22, 2004

·         NAJAF CNN reports renewed gunfire around shrine on the night of 21st/22nd.

·         AFP reports Al-Sadr militia is saying they will continue guarding the shrine even after a handover of the keys. [Emphasis ours.]

·         The matter of the inventory has been resolved: we learn from agencies that Al-Sadr militia want a count done so they are not accused of stealing things. Ayatollah Sistani, however, refuses to accept the keys from the militia, saying it is not safe for him to travel to the shrine to supervise an inventory while the militia are in control. He wants the militia to withdraw first.

·         In our opinion, there is a drama being played out behind the words. One explanation is that the Ayatollah is concerned about becoming a hostage to the militia. As of now, we are prepared to give the militia the benefit of the doubt and accept they want an inventory supervised by the highest authority to avoid later charges of theft. Again, this is our speculation; we are more looking for explanations to fit the facts than making an analysis/prediction based on information.

·         As for guarding the shrine, may we respectfully point out to the militia that no one has asked them to guard the shrine, and that the people of Najaf seem to want just one thing from the militia: that it should depart Najaf. If our information is correct, the Badr Brigades militia was protecting the shrine before the Al-Sadr dust-up; if so, we are sure they will be happy to return to the job. The Badr Brigades are anti-Al-Sadr.

·         We again note, with unhappiness, that we still don't understand how come the shrine was handed over to Al-Sadr militia in the first place.

·         Incidentally, we also learn that Ayatollah Sistani remains in the UK: media has been talking about a hand over of keys to him, so we assumed he was back.

·         WORLD BANK SAYS OIL TO FALL TO $30 A senior World Bank economist says that oil prices will shortfall fall to $30, setting himself at odds with others who say the price will shoot past $60. The economist's reasoning makes sense, to us at least. He says that at $50 oil that was unprofitable at $30  becomes worth extracting, and that will bring down the prices. He says the price increase is not because of production shortfalls, but because of speculation.

·         The economist's point is something that has been made to us by an informal advisor to Orbat.com on oil matters. He has told us that in the past, every time in the past that industry has invested money in alternate sources or high-priced oil, oil prices have crashed, leaving industry with billions of dollars of losses. He says the energy companies' refusal to look for alternate sources/supplies is logical from their viewpoint.

·         The issue then becomes: how much is the United States willing to pay to ensure a guaranteed oil supply? How much of a subsidy will the taxpayer accept to buy $50 oil even when $30 oil becomes freely available again? We have argued that the US is already paying possibly $70+ barrel of oil because so much of its defense posture is oriented toward protecting oil producers and oil lanes. So why not pay a subsidy to ensure secure oil supplies? The answer to this is simple: politics.

·         To support secure $50 oil/alternate technologies etc., gasoline prices would have to be hiked to $3+/gallon. That will bring screams of pain from individuals, who after all, pay out of their pocket to fill up. Money going to defense is not something they directly relate to as going out of their pocket: the government takes its tax at source, so the majority of people never see that money anyway. The country looks at defense as a collective sacrifice. It looks at higher pump prices as an individual sacrifice.

·         NEWS OF THE MILDLY ABSURD Now, we are very fond of the Poles. They are open, straight, big hearted and ready to share with someone in need, no matter how little they may have. They have a proud and brave history. So it hurts us to make the Poles in Iraq the butt of our News of the Absurd. We sincerely hope some journalist has quoted the spokesperson for the Polish Division in Iraq wrong.

·         AFP reports that Polish troops intercepted a van and recovered the following:  two rocket-launchers, five anti-tank rounds, 80 82-millimetre mortar shells, six 62-millimetre mortar shells, five missiles and three Kalashnikov rifles. And: "Spokesmen for the division said the arsenal would have enabled insurgents to attack its bases for at least a month." As the Americans say, do the math. Six mortar rounds, enough for 1-2 minutes of sustained firing for one tube. 80 mortar rounds, more serious stuff; if the attackers fire 6 and then scoot, that suffices for 12 attacks with a single tube. 5 anti-tank rounds, enough for five shots at vehicles. So if the Poles' idea of an attack is a couple of mortar rounds each day and an occasional RPG shot, then yes, the material suffices for a month. But we wouldn't call action at that scale an attack. And note the spokesperson said "bases". If there are three bases, then each is receiving one round per day. That's even less of an attack. Its the equivalent of a belch between bites of dinner.

·         DEBKA ON TURKEY-ISRAEL  Debka.com says the Turks have refused to give Israeli aircraft over f light rights in the event the Israelis attack Iran's nuclear facilities; moreover, Debka says Turkey is bound to provide access under the terms of the mutual security pact. We are unsure that the Turkish refusal - if the agreement allows it and if the Turks have gone back on the agreement - makes the slightest difference to a hypothetical Israeli attack.

·         WANA, NORTH WEST FRONTIER PROVINCE Jang of Pakistan reports that the Pakistan Air Force flew three jet and two attack helicopter sorties against militant positions in the Wana area, and artillery was also used. Jang says army reinforcements have reached Wana in 30 trucks.

·         The problem with the last report is that when we checked similar previous reports, we found the media was confusing resupply convoys with reinforcements.
 

 

0430 GMT August 21, 2004

·         NAJAF Al-Sadr militia has handed the keys to the shrine of Imam Ali to Grand Ayatollah Sistani, but has no left the shrine. They are there as pilgrims, say the militia, and will leave if asked to. There is an accounting process for the shrine assets to be completed.

·         This story raises more questions than it answers. First, what is the big deal about the shrine's keys? Second, how come Al-Sadr has them in the first place? Why does he now have to account for the shrine assets, including gold? These questions only Iraqis can answer, and we fear we will not easily learn the answers.

·         Be that as it may, no sign of any disarmament. Baghdad continues to insist it will not negotiate; Al-Sadr continues to insist he will not accept Baghdad's terms.

·         FALLUJAH  At last some answers to the mystery of why the US has been repeatedly bombing Fallujah. Some of the air strike have been delivered against militant anti-aircraft. We continue to look for indicators that might provide clues to the Fallujah situation; the anti-AA strikes have to be seen as a sign that something is up. The US was not over flying Fallujah to the extent it is now. The US could be drawing out hidden AA sites, a common tactic prior to an assault. AC-130 gunships have been in action over Fallujah.

·         BALUCHISTAN For once we can share news from our own sources with readers, instead of merely using other sources. Readers will recall that we were baffled as to why opposition MPs in Pakistan's parliament were claiming major Pakistan Army operations were underway in Baluchistan while the Government was saying nothing unusual was happening.

·         We learn that the US has been working on its Baluch bases; to provide protection the Pakistan Army has been constructing cantonments [bases] for its troops. This has aggravated the locals, as has also the Pakistan Army's continuing anti-Taliban/anti Al Qaeda operations. The Pakistan Army in its turn is putting down the locals. Our source opined that the local Baluchis don't have a chance against the Pakistan Army; we agree.

·         NEPAL For the second time on the same day we have news for our readers. Because of the Najaf excitement, we haven't been reporting on Nepal, where of a sudden Maoist insurgents have blockaded the capital. First we were confused as how the rebels had suddenly become so strong; then we were convinced that India would have to act as it would not tolerate a Maoist regime in Nepal. We still don't know about the rebels sudden surge of strength, but our source says we are wrong in firmly assuming India will react to the blockade. India has been helping the Nepal Army, but right now India is not automatically averse to the end of the Nepal monarchy and a communist takeover. How, when, etc. we have not been able to find out yet.

1800 GMT August 20, 2004

[3rd Update]

·         NAJAF Iraq government spokesperson in Baghdad says government has control of shrine and 500 militia under detention; the militia is said to have surrendered.

·         Nonetheless, US and Iraq spokespersons in Najaf say no move has been made toward retaking the shrine. Reporters who are visiting say that the city center is quiet.

1200 GMT August 20, 2004

[2nd Update]

·         NAJAF Agencies report heavy fighting Thursday/Friday night, but calm at dawn.

·         CNN reporter visited shrine yesterday with permission from US, Iraq, and militia; says she found women and children present, a festive mood, and a determination to fight to the last.

·         One problem with disbanding militia is said to be many have signed up for money and have nowhere to go should the militia cease to exist.

·         AL-SADR CNN reports that Al-Sadr spokesman says the militia prepared to hand over the keys to the Imam Ali shrine mausoleum, but "unfortunately" there is no one to give them to, as the shrine custodians are absent.

·         Opinion Clearly Al-Sadr is simply playing games, perhaps to buy time, and/or to appear reasonable to those who want him gone from the shrine, which is apparently just about everyone at this stage. The bit about no one being present to receive the keys so the militia must stay is such absurd comic theatre that we wonder if Al-Sadr is serious about appearing reasonable. Also, please note that the shrine consists of much more than Imam Ali's mausoleum. We are unfamiliar with the internal layout, but aside from the big compound there are other buildings inside the perimeter. It's clear Al-Sadr will accept no compromise, as we've been saying all along; we suspect the reason is that he knows he is a dead duck anyway. Iraq government will not let him live regardless of what agreement is signed.

0300 GMT August 20, 2004

·         AL-SADR While CNN, MSNBC reports Al-Sadr has told his militia to vacate the Imam Ali shrine and hand it back to the clerics who are normally in charge. This report has to be read in context of AFP's report that neither has Al-Sadr agreed to disband his militia, nor has he been specific as to how the shrine evacuation is to proceed. Al-Sadr says the militia is the army of Imam Mehdi, the 12th head of the Shias, and as such he has no right to disband it.

·         We hate to be flippant, but Al-Sadr is now so off-track that we are compelled to ask Mr. Al-Sadr: Since Grand Ayatollah Mehdi is long dead, how did Mr. Al-Sadr get authorization from the former to create an army in the first place?

·         NAJAF US air and artillery strikes on Najaf escalated, as part of what a US source is a strategy to unnerve the militants. US armor has moved to within 200 meters of the shrine, the closest it has ever approached. Reports say one bombing run by a a US aircraft created 30 explosions; we have no information that would permit us to make a reasonable speculation on why so many explosions; presumably the aircraft hit a militia armed dump.

·         Meanwhile, the militia mortared the now famous Iraq police station, the militia's attack on which started this round. The station has remained more or less under continuous attack; today six police were killed and many others wounded.

·         BAGHDAD Though Baghdad has been on the back burner due to events at Najaf, serious clashes continued Thursday - as they have almost every day - in Sadr City between the militia and US/Iraqi forces.

·         The US has dispatched reinforcements to Kut: the situation seems to be more difficult than we have gathered from the media reports; no details available.

·         Meanwhile, the now ritual air attack on Fallujah was also made on Thursday: one house was bombed.

·         SOUTH WAZIRISTAN Jang of Pakistan says fighting between Pakistan security forces and militants continues. In the latest battle, Pakistan Frontier Corps troops and militants are both said to have suffered heavily. Because journalists have been cleared out of the area, no details are available.

·         OSSETIA A crisis has brewed up in this breakaway region of the Georgia Republic while our attention was on the Middle East. Georgia made a big demonstration in force after fighting broke out between Georgian security forces and Ossetia troops. It has withdrawn its troops, but has warned they are ready to move back in 15 minutes, and threatens next time they will not stop till they have taken the capital of Ossetia.

·         Russia has denounced Georgian military action, saying Georgia created this now long-running confrontation by trying to impose control over a traditionally autonomous region of the Soviet Union.

·         With all respect to Moscow, how much autonomy did the autonomous regions have during Soviet times? Enough to reject Moscow's directives, skirmish with Soviet  forces in the area, refuse to admit Soviet police, and so on? We think not.

·         Nonetheless, regardless of what we at Orbat.com may think, apparently Mr. Putin is moving as best his capability allows to reassert Moscow's control over its lost republics. We have always thought the breakup of the Soviet was likely to become a highly reversible event.

·         We have the same situation in South Asia: when Delhi has been weak, the peripheries break away, as happened in 1947. But when Delhi is strong, it starts expanding its zone of control. This is the story of at least 2000 years of Indian history, and quite likely another 1000 years before that. If India does not expand, it will keep fracturing: if Pakistan can be independent, why not any good size Indian state? After that, when not chunks of Indian states.

·         Uttar Pradesh, which recently jettisoned several districts which formed two new states for administrative reasons, still has 120 million people. It could quite easily make three sizeable countries. Pakistan could easily make four good-sized countries. And so on. The same dynamic applies to Russia. If Russia is not to become just the Grand Duchy of Moscow once again, it has to expand again. The form will be different, the substance can not.

·         WHY UK LABOR PARTY IS UNAFFECTED BY IRAQ Reader D. Guy sends us this quotation from the UK Guardian to explain why despite the Iraq fiasco Labor and Mr. Blair are still riding high. He adds comments of his own.

·         The average (British) voter does not share the keen interest of the political and media classes with Iraq, according to the results of this month's Guardian/ ICM opinion poll. The survey shows that voters, including Labour supporters, rank Iraq last out of a list of 10 issues that they consider to be most important when deciding how they will cast their vote in the next general election. Only 12% say it is a crucial issue for them in deciding who to support.

·         COMMENT BY D. GUY And for those for whom Iraq is a defining issue have a ready vehicle.  The third party in England (Liberal Democrats) are anti-war and attracting their votes, not the English second party (Conservatives aka
Tories) who are even more pro-US (right or wrong) than Labour.  (England is cited deliberately, as Scottish [6 parties], Welsh [5 parties], and Northern Irish [infinite number of parties] are far too complicated and
parochial for this forum).
 

0215 GMT August 19, 2004

·         NAJAF 2/7th Cavalry has been identified as being in Najaf.

·         AL-SADR Episode LXII [at least]. Al-Sadr says he is prepared to disarm and enter politics. The catch is he wants negotiations with the Iraq government on the details of his disarming; chiefly he wants assurances that neither he nor any follower will be arrested. CNN suggests he changed his mind when he found a member of his party nominated to the Interim Council that will advise the Iraq government and help state elections.

·         We apologize to our readers because now we are truly baffled as to what is going on. One possible explanation is that apparently Al-Sadr accepted disarmament hours before the final assault was to begin.

·         IRAN UPDATE [By "Krazin"]  IRNA's focus still seems the arrest/capture of the IRNA reporter and the Iranian diplomat in Iraq. We find interesting that the Iran government is publicizing the capture of these people, and downplaying another top story, the refusal of the Iranian Olympian to face the Israeli Olympian so to stand in solidarity with the Palestinians.

NY TIMES EXPOSE ON NAJAF

0230 GMT August 18, 2004

·         AL-SADR  A 72-person delegation from the 1300 Iraqi delegates meeting in Baghdad to decide on elections and other matters was to travel to Najaf Monday to persuade Al-Sadr to surrender. Information was received that the delegation would be attacked on the road journey. On Tuesday 8 delegates flew by US helicopter(s) to Najaf, but could not meet with Al-Sadr. Two of his aides told the delegation that it was not safe for their leader to meet them as the Americans were looking for him.

·         This is the second time that Al-Sadr has not met with negotiators: last week a government minister when to Najaf but could not see the cleric.

·         The cleric's aides told the delegation that he was most receptive to their ideas, but no more was said.

·         Jang of Pakistan probably quoting AFP says that the Al-Sadr aides were not interested in negotiation, and the Iraqi delegation also said they were not there to negotiate, but to talk peace.

·         The implication here is that the Iraq government decided to permit its conventional delegates to make one more attempt to talk to Al-Sadr because hundreds of delegates were adamant they be permitted to try. But the Iraq government has not offered any deal.

·         There are vague rumors that Al-Sadr's aides are not letting any negotiator/peacemaker meet with him. We do not want to speculate on this because we have no clue what's afoot. We can say, however, that this is a strange situation.

·         NAJAF News agencies have been reporting heavy fighting etcetera in Najaf, but there is no evidence that anything much has happened. Rifle and mortar fire is being exchanged; we assume the mortars are outbound as the US forces are under strict instructions not to endanger the shrine; fighter aircraft have been reported over Najaf. The sole development of real interest - and it is a major development - is that American snipers have surrounded the shrine, and moved far enough forward to work. The American tactic here is going to be the same as we saw in Fallujah.

·         The Fallujah rule of engagement  said any armed person, or any person wearing robes that could hide a weapon, was to be shot without warning inside of a designated zone. We can reasonably assume the same will apply here. If US snipers are around the shrine, it means that they occupy higher buildings looking down into the courtyard, and when the ceasefire is declared over, we can reasonably assume any one venturing into the courtyard, or showing himself at a shrine window/minaret where the sniper can get a clear shot without risk of damaging the shrine, will be killed. [We deliberately avoid the widespread euphemism "taken out" as it's best to state what will happen without resorting to shaded meanings.]

·         This in turn means the US can indefinitely blockade the shrine till a favorable situation arises for an assault.

·         SPECULATION We should be aware that the shrine has tunnels and underground passages. If they extend further than the inner cordon, it is possible that Al-Sadr and others may be able to escape. At the same time, we do not think he will do that, because he will be abandoning most of his men and this will cost him his leadership. The US is not exactly operating blind here: Iraq security forces are all over the place, Al-Sadr has many enemies, and most of Najaf wants to be rid of him. So we feel that while he and others may be able to escape, the majority of the militia will not.

·         US ACCEPTS CHAVEZ WIN On hearing from former President Jimmy Carter and other observers that the  Venezuela referendum was fair, the US has said it accepts the result, thus giving President Chavez much-needed legitimacy. Observers say fraud did take place, but not on a scale that would have affected the 58-42 vote. Incidentally, the US has been saying all along that Mr. Chavez's issues are Venezuela's internal affair. The charge of US intervention against Mr. Chavez was based on the US Government repeatedly expressing concern that the President's party was suppressing the rights of dissidents. Which was happening.

·         REPORT FROM IRAQI BLOG Reader J.D. Cameron sends the following, carefully observing he is no position to judge the authencity of the information:

·         Just stumbled across this blog offering a different view of the situation in
Southern Iraq. Of course, I'm not entirely sure if it's a legit site from a
legit Iraqi, but it might be worth glancing at:

http://www.messopotamian.blogspot.com/

"I appeal to people of the World; Please, Please, Please hear the true voice of the Iraqi people. We are facing a terrible conspiracy. The people of the South are being persecuted and massacred, not by the Americans, not by the Iraqi Army and Iraqi police.

·         The gangs of the "Mehdi" army financed and recruited by the Iranian security forces and others, this has become amply clear, are massacring the people, right now as I am writing these lines. As one caller to the "Fayhaa" T.V. station is saying right now from Kut, for the first time in history the Wahabis, the Iranian hardliners and the
Baathists have formed and alliance against the people of Iraq and
particularly against the Shiaa people. Horrifying stories are emerging from
the South.

·         In the name of the Iraqi people and the Shiaa people, as God is my witness, we appeal to our friends everywhere to come to the rescue of our people in the South in particular. The people of Kut are fighting the gangs with their bare hands at the moment. Don't expect any coherent words from me now.

·         Please do not listen to the lies. The vast overwhelming majority of the
Shiaa people in particular are dead against these gangs. They don't want
them; please believe me, and may God strike me dead immediately if I tell you lies or my own personal feeling only.

·         The greatest danger is not in Najaf, but in Basrah where the main oil wealth
of the country is being jeopardized (and so is the world economy and the
security of the entire free world), and placed at the mercy of Gangs
financed and employed by the Iranians, Al Qaeda and the Baathists. So much for the much-vaunted success of the British at controlling the region, they have allowed the thugs to gain control of the area. Basrah is in grave
danger , Basrah, Basrah, Basrah; not only us but the whole free world is
threatened. Can anybody understand, will anybody hear?"
 

 

0330 GMT August 17, 2004

·         AL-SADR The Iraq National Assembly meeting in Baghdad is to send a delegation today to Najaf to ask Al-Sadr to lay down arms and leave the city. He is to be asked to join the political mainstream. Al-Sadr was severely condemned by many in the Assembly, with one delegate voicing a commonly-held view, that the shrine does not belong to Al-Sadr but to the people of Iraq.

·         DEBKA.COM ON AL-SADR Debka.com says Al-Sadr has been sending bitter complaints to Qom in Iran and to the Najaf clerics, saying he has been sold out by them. Debka says some of the messages have been intercepted by the US; also, the cemetery has been cleared of militia, now leaving just the immediate shrine area.

·         AL-SADR AND THE FALLUJAH SUNNIS Sources say that Al-Sadr has asked for Fallujah Sunnis to help him, and that he has received some reinforcement, possibly from Sadr City in Baghdad.

·         In our opinion, if the above is true, it proves once again - not that anyone should need further proof - that Al-Sadr wants power for himself. He is neither an Iraqi patriot, nor a defender of the faith, but just another would-be petty tyrant. Why he is surprised that the Qom and Najaf clerics have betrayed him, we fail to understand. The Najaf clerics were afraid to confront him because of his supposed following. Now that the people of Iraq are increasingly seeing the struggle as Al-Sadr versus Iraq, and not as Al-Sadr wants, Al-Sadr against the US, the Najaf clerics can move against him. As for Qom, which is in Iran, we can guess only that at this time the Iranians have decided either that they don't want to back a loser, or by abandoning him are trying to appear "reasonable" to the Iraqis. This is just a guess: Arab politics are so complex it would be foolish of us to make any definitive analysis of our own.

·         GIVE THE US GOVERNMENT A HAND, PLEASE While supporting the overall US objective in Iraq, we have been as critical as anyone concerning the execution of US policy. But now in all fairness, we at Orbat.com have to acknowledge the US has played a masterly game in Najaf. One would expect with American forces pounding the cemetery, putting in a tight cordon around the shrine, and preparing for an assault on the shrine, that the people of Iraq and the Arab world would be in an uproar.

·         The US, however, has played its hand brilliantly, showing the world it is acting solely at the behest of the Iraq government. When the Iraq government says "ceasefire, we want to give the man one more chance", US troops ceasefire. when the Iraq government says "advance", the US advances. When the government says "we do not want American troops entering the shrine", the American not only concur, but tell the media isn't it terrific that the Iraqis are taking the initiative. There has been not one word out of the US government in the last 8 days about what the Iraqis should do about Najaf.

·         CHAVEZ International observers say their inspections of Venezuela polling stations confirms that President Chavez won the referendum fairly. And to think he was getting so angry about the presence of the observers. With the observers putting their stamp of approval on the poll, President Chavez has gained a legitimacy he could never have hoped for had he refused to permit foreign observers.

·         CONGO While we have been focusing on Iraq and Dafur, the internal security in DR Congo has fallen to pieces. UN head Kofi Annan is to ask the UN Security Council to authorize 13,000 additional troops for the 10,000 MONUC force in place.

1130 GMT August 16, 2004

[2nd Update]

·         NAJAF AFP reports that Najaf is calm before the expected assault on Al-Sadr forces. Iraq government says the operation will be conducted rapidly and with finality.

·         Debka.com says that US troops are inching forward and that artillery fire has been heard. We note this in itself may not mean much because for several days US/Iraq forces have been moving forward to continue squeezing Al-Sadr militia into increasingly small area around the shrine of Imam Ali; US has used artillery and air strikes in the cemetery battle.

·         DUELLING FATWAS Debka.com brings up a critical item that has been ignored by the media: Al-Sadr is being "bombarded" by contradictory fatwas from Iraq clerics, some telling him to clear out of the shrine and others telling him to fight. Truthfully, it had not occurred to us that the clerics would be busy playing a key role behind the scenes, and we thank Debka.com for highlighting this important news.

·         FALLUJAH Meanwhile, the perhaps unintentional news blackout from Fallujah continues. CNN says US aircraft attacked multiple residences on Sunday; we have lost count of how many attacks have been made in recent days.

·         Debka.com says Fallujah, Balad, Ramadi, and Samarra - all Sunni Triangle strongholds - have been surrounded by US forces. This, of course, makes good sense. It would be logical for US to make a massive coordinated offensive elsewhere while all attention is focused on Najaf. This makes sense; we have been suspecting that action against Fallujah will be conducted under cover of the Najaf assault, but hesitated to say anything because of lack of information.

·         CHAVEZ CLAIMS VICTORY President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela claims a 58-42 victory in the referendum to decide if he should step down. AFP says opposition rejects the claim, saying the real result is 60-40 against him; alleges massive electoral fraud.

·         We are no fans of President Chavez, who is as  nepotic, despotic and corrupt as any Latin leader in modern history; but would not be surprised if he had won even a fair election. Either way, however, the referendum solves nothing: neither side would have accepted a result it did not want.

0300 GMT August 16, 2004

·         NAJAF CNN reports Iraq government has ordered all journalists, foreign and local, to leave Najaf, and the government again reiterated its determination to deal with the Al-Sadr militia as quickly as possible. US forces resumed skirmishing with the militia in the cemetery, which we learn dates back 13 centuries.

·         Additional Iraqi troops have reinforced Najaf. Iraq's 36th National Guard battalion, a special commando type unit, has been identified in Najaf. For the first time, yesterday we saw a reference to a militia unit - 315th Battalion. CNN says militia used the June-July truce to rebuild its battered ranks and impart training.

·         The Iraq government again says only Iraqi forces will go into the mosque.

·         MOSQUE WIRED FOR DESTRUCTION? The Iraq government says that 25 foreign fighters have wired the mosque for destruction, and orders it security forces not to approach the mosque. Al-Sadr has made no such claim, and there are good reasons not to do so even if the report is true. Conversely, there is a chance the Iraq government is buying itself an insurance policy in case the mosque is damaged.

·         NO CONDEMNATION OF MOSQUE USE AS A BASE That Al Sadr is using the mosque as a fortress is undisputed, yet we hear no condemnation of this by the Islamic community in general and the Iraqi Shia in particular. It is because of Al-Sadr this dangerous situation has arisen. So its OK to condemn the Iraq government and US for reasserting government authority, and its not OK to condemn Al-Sadr? Hmmmm.

·         DAFUR 150 Rwanda troops have arrived in Dafur to protect the unarmed African Union observers, the Nigerians are to send a similar number in about 10 days. The Rwanda commander has clearly said he will not stand by if civilians are attacked. Sudan government has condemned this statement, saying the troops are there to protect observers only.

·         In our opinion, Sudan can say what it wants, but there is no doubt that African troops will intervene if the government backed militias attack civilians and if the small African contingent can do anything to protect the civilians. We feel there is also no doubt that should militia attack the AU force, larger contingents will be dispatched to Dafur with or without the Sudan government's consent.

·         We are impressed at how ready the African nations are to assume responsibility for the Dafur crisis. They have been hampered from doing more because the west has been very slow to provide the logistical support African troops need. The US's microinvestment in training peacekeeping battalions from several African armies has already paid off in Sierra Leone, Liberia, Burundi,and the Ivory Coast; in our opinion the Africans are being proactive in Dafur because they now have the confidence and experience to take the lead in solving their own problems. A good job done by the Departments of Defense and State: a handful of trainers, a few tens of million dollars for equipment, and you have a genuine Pan African peacekeeping force. A light hand and leveraging local assets to the maximum: this was the guiding tenet of British imperialism. With the US determined to set up a world empire - we use empire for lack of a better word - here is proof the US can learn from past mistakes. Afghanistan 2001 was the way to go, Iraq 2003-04 was not, and as far as we can see, for Iran the Afghan model will be used and not the Iraq model.

·         IRAQ OIL EXPORTS RESUME We are intrigued by reports that the northern pipeline, Kirkuk-Ceyhan, has resumed operations and is moving 700,000 barrels of crude a day. What intrigued us is not so much that the pipeline itself has been restored. The interesting thing is that apparently there is now a new pipeline as well as the old one. Does any reader have details?

·         Looks like in this one respect, at least, the Americans did something clever while remaining very quiet indeed. All eyes have been on the southern pipelines. If the Americans have indeed built a new pipeline, then there is evidence of long-range planning on at least one key aspect of the Iraq plan. More on this another time.

INSURGENTS OCCUPYING RELIGIOUS PLACES: A STORY

·         In British India, around 1940 if we recall right [readers please correct], group of Muslim insurgents took over a mosque in what is now Pakistan. The District Commissioner, the highest ranking British administrator of an Indian district, which can be likened to a large and populous US county, was told to solve the problem. The Commissioner in this case happened to be an Indian, one of the officers of the super-elite Indian Civil Service, which had started taking Indians in small numbers some years previous.

·         The story as we heard it is that the Commissioner firmly planted his solar hat on his head, and set off with a head constable and a few constables of the police, all natives. A head constable has the rank of a sergeant, and the Indian police of the day were armed not with guns, but with 6-foot bamboo sticks.

·         This tiny contingent marched to the mosque, the Commissioner rapped smartly with his cane on the blockaded doors of the mosque, and when the door was opened a fraction, he announced he had come with a warrant of arrest for the ringleaders, and would they be so kind as surrender without causing problems?

·         The insurgents mulled over their options, decided none were good, and the leaders came out, to be marched back to the local jail. End of crisis.  The matter was handled purely at a local level, with a minimum of fuss, and as far as the Commissioner was concerned, no big deal.

·         We heard the story from the brother of the officer concerned; the brother himself was a famous member of the Indian Civil Service. We thought it was a very big deal indeed. To take a party of half-a-dozen unarmed police and calmly get a bunch of armed and very-determined-to-fight-to-the-death insurgents to surrender is quite an achievement.

·         The Commissioner's brother was relating this story in the context of the Indian Army's attack on the holiest of Sikh shrines in 1984. The shrine had been taken over and made into a fortress by an outlawed religious leader. The shrine was manned by several hundred armed men, most of them ex-soldiers, with an excellent training for military operations.

·         Knowing this, the Indian Government decided it must sent in an overwhelming force. A division was concentrated, and several infantry battalions, mechanized and tank units were used in the assault. The attack took several days to finish the job, and hundreds of soldiers and hundreds of militants were killed. It was a terrible mess.

·         We thought about the story again while watching the assault on Waco in 1993 on TV.

·         The point our friend was making was: the British did not believe in turning a law-and-order problem into a military problem. We have no idea what would have happened had the ordinary police turned up with a warrant at the Sikh shrine, and nor are we suggesting that the Iraqis could have done something similar with Al-Sadr. The Americans, however, could have used this tactic at Waco. The inhabitants of the Branch Dravadian compound had illegal weapons [apparently medium machine guns are illegal even in Texas] and were alleged to be abusing children. Instead of the sheriff arriving with one deputy to serve a warrant, the law enforcement people decided to go in with guns blazing as if this was a military operation, and the result again was a terrible tragedy.

·         Yes, it would have taken a very brave sheriff and deputy to calmly arrive, just the two of them, to serve a warrant. Yet, would could the people in the compound have done? Shot two police officers in cold blood knowing if they did that they would have to pay heavily? And the point of these stand-offs is they have to be handled by brave people.

·         Just a speculation: suppose the US/Iraq had simply said: "Al-Sadr is wanted on a charge of murder; he is a common criminal, and we will arrest him as one", instead of going after the militia and everyone else except Al-Sadr. This was not at all complicated. Keep down the temperature, holster the guns, keep a close on Al-Sadr, and when appropriate grab him.

·         May be it wouldn't have worked. But what happened in April-June and today can hardly be said to be a successful policy, either.

·         Unleashing the military on Al-Sadr was perhaps not a good idea. Of course, this is speculation: what's done is done.

0300 GMT August 15, 2004

·         NAJAF TALKS FAIL To no one's surprise but ours, the Najaf talks between Iraq government and Al-Sadr have failed. Readers are going to ask "but were you not saying no genuine talks can take place because the Iraqis are going to get Al-Sadr one or the other, so why should Al-Sadr compromise? This may sound odd, but your editor at least has taken a bit of a liking to this mule-head. He's very indulgent toward young people in general, and somehow, covering him for the past week has made us more sympathetic to him as a person.  So we were hoping that somehow he'd come out of this alive, join Iraq politics, marry, have children, and one day be an important leader. Al-Sadr is determined to make any negotiation fail, and again, since the reality is even if he comes out alive now and changes his way, the Irag government has to get rid of him - he could as easily change back the next day.

·         Al-Sadr draws much sympathy in Iraq, in the Arab world, and even among young anti-American Europeans. We are not going to bore our readers with details of his demands, but consider just one show-stopper.

·         Al-Sadr wants not just the Americans to leave, he wants the Iraq government to leave too! Najaf, he says, will be controlled by the clerics. Leaving aside the problem that the clerics want him dead, which government anywhere can agree to this type of condition?

·         ANOTHER REASON AL-SADR MUST GO The US Government says it is not involved in the negotiations. It is present as an enforcer for the Iraq government and is not interested in meddling in Iraq politics. Easy to say in this case, since the US and Iraq government view of Al-Sadr is identical.

·         But now another reason that he has to go and the militia smashed. Iraqis are starting to say "Wow, Al-Sadr is defeating the world's mightiest power!". The same thing happened at Fallujah. The credibility of the whole of US foreign policy in the Arab world is now in danger if Al-Sadr first, Fallujah second, are not sorted out in terms Iraqis understand. If they can believe Al-Sadr is winning, when he is confined to a few square kilometers that the US is deliberately not attacking, then the only way they will be convinced is when they see him dead.

·         AL-QAEDA In the Washington Post's cartoon section - 3 pages, and the best in the world, we think - is a character called Big Nate, a sixth grader. Whenever he is tense, he finds an empty plastic soda pop bottle and gently bangs it against his head for an extended period. This soothes  him.

·         After reading about how Al-Qaeda has reconstituted itself, your editor banged a 9-kilo against his forehead, not gently, for fifteen minutes but still finds he is not feeling better. This issue of Al-Qaeda reconstituting has been a favorite theme of the doom-sayers. And it is absolutely true Al-Qaeda has reconstituted itself: we've heard enough analysts who absolutely support US policy in the Arab world so say.

·         The problem is, this is one of those statements that is true, but quite devoid of significance. Reconstituted it may be, but Al-Qaeda has taken a terrible beating, especially in the last two months thanks to the Pakistanis. Take an analogy.

·         A military unit loses 70%+ of its experienced leaders in combat. It is reconstituted by the simple process of making lieutenants into captains and captains into majors, and so on. Bam, you have a unit where the Orbat shows an officer at each level.

·         But is this the same unit as it was before?

·         No.

·         It is a unit with junior leaders now having to substitute for senior ones, while lacking the training and experience of the senior leaders. Moreover, Al-Qaeda is not a military unit. That second layer of leaders has been prematurely forced into the open, they are increasingly known. If the al-Qaeda of yesteryear is rated at 100, right now they are down to something between 30-50. When the new leaders are taken down, it will be down to 20-30. And so on.

·         There will always be an Al-Qaeda. What it will be able to do is another matter. The world is a big place. Protecting every bridge, every important building, every rail line, every factory is impossible. Even when Al-Qaeda gets down to a 1, it will still have an ability to inflict damage. So what?

·         PAKISTAN AND AL QAEDA Pakistan had no reason to love the Al Qaeda because this lot undercut Pakistan's leverage with its creation, the Taliban. While we easily accept that important elements of the Pakistani intelligence and military continue to protect Taliban, we are unsure if they have a stake in protecting Al-Qaeda.

·         In any case, once Al-Qaeda turned on the Pakistan Army, what might have earlier been a Pakistan unwillingness to exert itself fully in tracking Al Qaeda down - the enemy of Uncle Sam, who 95% of good Pakistanis hate, is my friend -  no longer applies. The attacks on President Musharraf were not a good idea, but still, there are Pakistani generals who would not weep if he was killed. But when GOC Pakistan V Corps was attacked, and nearly killed but for the extreme bravery of his driver, who despite being mortally wounded drove his commander through the ambush to safety, things changed overnight.

·         Pakistan, like India is a soft society. Normal policing and investigation is very hard for a number of reasons. But if there is a national emergency, as in India, the government swings into action. No Geneva Convention, no right to legal counsel, in fact, no rights at all. The government will capture 10 people, and will commence a series of gentle persuasions, based on the theme "kill them all, God will sort the innocent from the guilty". The guilty person will break, and quickly, and give a clue. The clue might be slight. But then the government will go get the next batch of 10, and torture them till they get a more substantial clue from the one of ten who is guilty. Etcetra. Think "Better 99 innocent men hang than 1 guilty man go free", and you get the picture. We again ask our readers to throw in their wastebaskets all the rot about torture does not produce effective results etc etc Those who say that do not know of what they speak. If you're willing to torture enough people, and not particularly care if you kill them in the process, you will get what you want.

·         That Karachi attack was a really, really bad idea. We hear only the faintest of rumors, but some even claim thanks to the Pakistanis, a stake has been driven through the heart of the beast. Of course, as it had no heart to begin with, it is still crawling around. But our readers will understand what we're getting at.

0315 GMT August 14, 2004

·         NAJAF All quiet as negotiations proceed. Orbat.com grateful for a chance to discuss other news. Al-Sadr said only lightly wounded, delivered his Friday sermon, so appears the Iraq government was right when it said Al-Sadr was not wounded. We wish someone had thought to ask when Al-Sadr aides were saying he was wounded, how did Iraq government know he was not?

·         FALLUJAH More US air attacks in Fallujah; we are still clueless as to what is going on, but obviously Fallujah has to be dealt with.

·         BALUCHISTAN We also remain clueless as to what's happening in this part of Pakistan.  Baluch MPs continue to allege in parliament that a military operation is still going on; government rejects this and says only that certain operations against criminal elements have and are being conducted.

·         DAFUR We haven't covered Dafur for some days, thanks to Najaf. Nothing seems to have improved; now the rebels are refusing to attend peace talks. They have good reason, because the last round of talks/agreements resulted only in more killing. At the same time, however, with defacto foreign intervention under way - 150 African Union troops are protecting AU observers and more are coming - the rebels have no incentive to concede anything to Khartoum. The rebels are looking to the day Dafur can become independent of Sudan and recognized as such.

·         VENEZUELA RECALL The vote to recall President Hugo Chavez is approaching. The simplest way to look at the situation as of today is that most polls show Mr. Chavez defeating the recall attempt.

·         OIL Business Week [BW] says that according to the normal supply/demand pattern, oil should be around $35 a barrel, ten dollars less than its price today. The $10 markup can be considered the Mideast instability tax, together with the Yukos of Russia crisis. We have not reported on this for lack of time, but Yukos is responsible for production of 1.3 million bbl/day and the mess it is in makes disruption possible. Then, Business Week tells us the Arabs have actually reduced extraction capability by 4 million bbl/day over the last couple of decades, despite the increase in demand, and is now at 30 million bbl/day.

·         China apparently is taking an unexpected 0.85 million bbl/day extra. Many experts say they doubt if OPEC has any spare capacity left. If a major disruption hits, oil could increase to  $65/bbl, but BW's experts believe talk of $100/bbl oil is unrealistic.

·         At $10/bbl above "normal", BW says $44 billion/year is being taken from US consumers pockets. Orbat.com felt so bad that we wept quite a while after reading the article. Just imagine: 4-car families may have to downgrade to three cars, 3-car families to two cars and so on. American consumerism has reached such heights that in Washington metro, there are more cars than licensed drivers. Dad has his fun car as well as his regular car; Mom has her fun car; the family has a van; teenage Melissa got her own car when she turned 16, and now Tracy, her younger sister, has to be given one even though she is still only on her learners permit. Four person family, six vehicles, no one thinks this is odd. And let's not talk of the size of the vehicles.

·         Americans are getting to the stage where garages for new homes are bigger than the total homes of two generations ago, and of course, a 4,000 square foot house for a couple with two children arouses no comment.

·         Okay, so oil goes to $65/bbl, so American consumers have $100 billion less to spend - and we invite our European friends to weep with us - that a whole 1% of the US GNP. Quelle tragedie. Quelle farce, more likely.

·         SOMEWHAT ABSURD NEWS Washington Post carries a front-page story Friday which for sure belongs in a magazine and not a newspaper, about the Marines in Anbar province and the handful of KIA they have taken.

·         It's another tear jerker. We wish Washington Post would give equal  space to the 65,000 or so Americans killed every year in car accidents and murder. The Marines in Anbar at least died for a good cause, the 65,000/year are shrugged off.

·         This is not the reason we've brought up this story. The Washington Post wrenchingly tells us how Marines are killed, and the next day the men are asked to go back to the place where their comrades were killed. Gee golly galoshes! They actually have to do that? The Marine Corps, any military, asks soldiers to return to the place their comrades were killed? The Marine Corps orders its troops back to the job. There is no asking.

·         Is the Washington Post suggesting that it's an extra sacrifice that the men have to go back to their sectors where they lost comrades? Are we supposed to take a deep breath and say "Oh my gosh, how incredibly brave of them?"  Fighting and dying is their job, Washington Post. They volunteer for the job. To Post reporters this seems an impossibly alien notion. First, US casualties in Anbar have been a few score. Second, these men are doing something far more selfless than Post reporters could dream of.

·         Yes, Washington Post, there are Americans who believe it their duty to risk their lives for their country and for their fellow citizens. To the 2 million soldiers, add the many million more police and fire people. Just because your reporters' biggest concern seems to be looking buff with perfect hairdos for the cameras - the men as much as the women - does not mean other people don't have different priorities.

·         Do not demean American soldiers by writing this fake touchy-feely-weep-sob-sniff stuff. Like you personally actually give a darn? Like these soldiers actually represent something more than a cheap story to you?  If you cannot be respectful of the soldiers, please do something useful with your body, like clearing mines by stepping on them. We don't know if the soldiers will notice, but we'd for sure show you some respect.

1300 GMT August 13, 2004

[2nd Update]

·         NAJAF Agencies report the offensive has been scaled down to permit negotiations between the Iraq government and Al-Sadr.

·         Al-Sadr aides say their leader was wounded by shrapnel in the chest, arms, and legs. Iraq government says he is unhurt.

·         The Iraq government has said that it will not arrest Al-Sadr if he surrenders: he is free to go peacefully. As for the militia, however, there are no terms offered.

·         The battalion of US 5th Cavalry in action at Najaf is indeed the 1st; a battalion of the 7th Cavalry is also identified.

·         BACKGROUND Thanks to Karl Vick of the Washington Post we have a better perspective on the battle. He confirms our analysis that no major engagement has taken place.

·         Vick reports that the cordon is at a distance of 1.6 km from the shrine center, and that US forces continue to operate under highly restrictive rules of engagement. For example, from the cemetery side they do not fire in the direction of the shrine.

·         The Iraq unit we mentioned as having performed with distinction at Kut was actually engaged in Najaf: it crossed the Tigris under fire to retake a bridge.

·         The Iraq forces include a commando unit which performed well in the Fallujah battles in April; presumably this is the unit that will go into the shrine.

·         Commendably, the Washington Post quotes people in the city center who want Al-Sadr defeated.

·         COMMENTS Unless we misjudge Al-Sadr, readers should write-off the Iraq government's "attempts" to talk as clever propaganda. If Al-Sadr were to walk out of Najaf, he would betray his militia. Further, the Iraq government offers of negotiation all along have been simply a ploy to show the world that at every step it has been reasonable but the "criminals" have not. This new negotiation is also aimed at world Shia opinion. The government is not so foolish as to let Al-Sadr live.

·         Some agencies have reacted as if a general Shia rebellion has been sparked or is rapidly spreading. One statistic offered in support of this thesis is that 5,000 marched in Basra against the attack. We'd like the concerned agencies to get a life. Supposed the situation were reversed and the Vatican was under siege, and 5,000 marched in protest. Agencies would be reporting that there was no reaction to siege.

·         Further facts offered to support the rapidly growing rebellion thesis. In Najaf half the provincial governing council resigned in protest. In Amara a National Guard battalion said it would support Al-Sadr till the Americans left Iraq. Skirmishing continues in many cities.

·         The reality is this. There is no evidence offered that non-Al-Sadr militia are fighting. The situation regarding the Shias in general remains the same as in the spring. The National Guard battalion knows darn well it will be hauled up for desertion in the face of the enemy, a serious offense today because the Iraq government is no-nonsense. We'd have been happier if this story had been followed in more detail. Are there really hundreds of Guardsmen willing to go over to Al-Sadr? Or is this an incident of the well-known Iraqi tendency to try and have it both ways? The men protesting can say they are opposed to the Americans, not their government. Moreover, if hundreds have in effect deserted, why has Amara not exploded in serious fighting? Because these men, however many their numbers, are sitting on their hands.

·         Re. the Najaf council. Doubtless Al-Sadr has his supporters there, they can be expected to resign. But many will be resigning for show: we are not tools of the Americans etc.  Should Al-Sadr win out, they come up golden. Should he lose, they think they still come out golden: we didn't oppose our government we opposed the Americans. Iraqis change their allegiances in a trice to bend with the prevailing breeze. To them, this is not dishonorable, but merely shrewd business.

0245 GMT August 13, 2004

·         NAJAF While we'd love to relay news of fierce battles at Najaf and such, we gather that fighting has actually been light to moderate. Agencies report US troops raided a house thought to be Al-Sadr's residence, but did not find him at home. The US is now saying it is not going to enter the shrine itself. We suspect the news of the assault starting may have involved some semantics; the reality is that so far US/Iraq forces have isolated the shrine area in central Najaf. Apparently the rest of Najaf is going about its business.  MSNBC, for one, says that as evening fell on August 12, the battle field was relatively calm.

·         Fighting continues in other town; again, there is no standard definition of fighting so it's difficult to say what's really going on. Do three skirmishes in 24 hours count as fighting? We don't know. Kut has for sure taken a beating, but mainly in the district controlled by Al-Sadr militia, and the action has mainly been from the air. Most of the ground combat has been conducted  by Iraqis; in one case, says MSNBC, they retook lost positions by conducting a small-boat assault under heavy militia fire.

·         MAP For first rate satellite maps/photos of Najaf showing every thing readers may need to see, go to Globalsecurity.org. And if you can, please make a contribution to their work: photos like they have are a huge expense.

·         IRAN IN IRAQ Several readers have been kind enough to bring our attention to a Debka.com story saying Iran has sent into Iraq three units - size not identified - who are fighting in the southern cities. While we'd put nothing past Iran, charges like this are so serious that it is best to wait for more confirmation.

·         Among other developments, we omitted to mention that 4 Iran journalists reported kidnapped in Iraq a few days back are said to have actually been arrested by the Iraqis. Iran has tested a 1200 mile range missile, which put Israel and parts of south east Europe within range. Again, however, we should be slow to conclude anything. Many such tests are conducted at much reduced range so this is not proof that Iran can deploy this range of missile.

·         Converse to our argument, if we recall right - and will someone correct us if necessary - the first US Atlas ICBM squadrons were deployed before the missile had been tested at full-range.

NEWS ANALYSIS 101

We carry this verbatim report from AFP as one example of things our young readers need to watch out for in news reports. Bolding ours.

 NAJAF, Iraq (AFP) US warplanes screamed over this Iraqi holy city in a massive assault aimed at crushing a Shiite Muslim uprising, as the specter of attacks on the country's petroleum infrastructure sent world oil prices to record highs for the second time in 48 hours.

Jets roared overhead as massive explosions and tank and machine-gun fire boomed through the city and smoke engulfed its historic centre, home to the Imam Ali shrine, revered by Shiites the world over.

Thousands of US forces, backed by Iraqi police and national guard, mounted a pincer assault to trap Moqtada Sadr's fighters in the heart of the city, before going on to raid the militia leader's home, which was unoccupied.

Iraqi and US troops sealed approaches to the mausoleum, as hundreds of terrified residents fled through the dusty streets.

"Leave the city. Help coalition forces and do not fire at them," one announcement instructed in Arabic. "We are here to liberate the city."

Armed militiamen fanned out into the deserted plaza outside the shrine as mosques urged Sadr's Mehdi Army to defy the onslaught and defend the city.

By dusk, one militiamen had been killed and 25 wounded, while one civilian was killed and three others injured, said the clinic inside the shrine.

·         Now consider some problems with the report. We are led to believe something really big and dramatic is happening, but at the end of the day we have exactly - one militiaman killed. Of course, the figure will be higher - that's the figure the clinic inside the shrine is reporting. Still, no evidence of a major fight here. In Kut 85 are reported killed in US air attacks, so that situation is more intense casualty-wise.

·         Notice the "thousands" of US troops. There may be around 3000 in total, which means that possibly 4-500 are involved in the actual assault - if it has taken place in the first instance! We cannot add the jets and smoke and explosions and the 3000 US troops and assume the full-scale assault must be underway. In any event, by nightfall things were relatively calm according to other reports.

·         Notice also, please, the hundreds of terrified residents. Huh? Najaf is a tightly packed city, particularly in its center. Take 10 persons to a family - conservative, as Iraqi joint families tned to be larger - and we have what? 20 families fleeing? That's twenty houses. Say it's even thirty or forty houses. Try and visualize that many houses bang against each other, narrow alleys, no compounds worth mention, etc etc: this is only a short street's worth of people. True that many may have left earlier - but we had no report of any massive outflow of refugees. This number of hundreds has been said before when the US began asking residents to leave.

·         A minor point. In your editor's salad days, fighter jets definitely seemed to scream. Today they seem to be more roar than scream. Scream sounds more dramatic, we have to admit.

Also, please check Hong Kong gold prices this morning: at 0130 GMT AFP reports gold has opened lower. AFP says oil prices have gone through the roof because of the Najaf situation. Okay, so New York light sweet crude is at $45. Big deal. Adjust that for inflation - we apologize for not doing it for you but even this news analysis is well outside the allotted time for the update - and we guess that in late 1970s-early 1980s prices its about $25. So which roof has been breached? Because of the global recovery and enormous increase in demand from China and India, even without the Iraq crisis oil prices would have been approaching $40 - we're talking Iraq crisis here, not just Najaf crisis.

1200 GMT August 12, 2004

[2nd Update]

·         NAJAF Agencies report US and Iraqi forces have begun the assault on the immediate area of the shrine of Imam Ali. The few reporters present before the assault appear to have fled - a sensible move; our impression is that most if not all the reporters involved are of Arab origin. They may have been the only ones able to enter the rapidly reducing militia zone - and perhaps the only ones brave or foolhardy enough to do so. If the reporters are indeed gone, then news from non-coalition and non-militia sources is not going to be available.

·         CORDON The operation began with US forces sealing off all approaches to the shrine. Under trained as they are, Iraqi forces are expected to lead the attack; it is expected US forces will not actually enter the shrine. Of course, as we have said earlier, they will not need to: once the compound is in US hands there is no where for the militia to go.

·         BAGHDAD Clashes are reported between US and Al-Sadr militia, perhaps 40 militia are dead. The militia, based in Sadr City, has threatened to attack targets in other parts of Baghdad, and CNN says this has reduced movement of people.

·         OTHER CITIES Clashes have taken place in other south Iraq cities including Amara and Kut. In Kut, US warplanes attacked a district controlled by the militia for two hours; 70+ are reported dead.

·         FALLUJAH In Fallujah, which has been off the media screen for many days, US aircraft bombed four houses. We do  not know what is happening in Fallujah, but suspect preparations are being made for the offensive which has to come.

·         I MEF Reader TAC informs us that I MEF is the HQ that took charge of Najaf province when the US assumed direct control. I MEF was previously responsible only for Anbar province, Iraq's biggest.

·         DATES For several days we have been putting the wrong hours on the update, forgetting to add the 5 hours for GMT. Thanks to J Cramer for pointing out the error.

0200 GMT August 12, 2004

NAJAF

·         Because so many things are happening, we are forced to revert to our composite report style we used when giving the news on the Afghanistan and Gulf II wars. Sources used include AP, Reuters, Washington Post, AFP, BBC, and CNN.

·         SHOWTIME Reports say the US is preparing for a final offensive against Al-Sadr. At some point in the last few days, US 1st Cavalry Division units have reinforced 11th MEU [1/4th Marines]; a battalion of the 5th Cavalry is identified in Najaf. US officers tell the media they are only waiting for the Iraq Prime Minister's okay.

·         THE POINT OF NO RETURN  The Washington Post, reporting from Najaf, says both sides recognize  the point of no return has been reached. We'd agree with this because Iraq/US have refused all offers by Al Sadr for talks.

·         TRAINING IRAQI FORCES The US will insist that Iraqi forces play a major role in the coming battle, or at least appear to play a major role. There is an obvious political benefit from putting the Iraqis out front, even if most of the fighting will be done by US troops. Iraqi forces have done quite well in the last week, in Najaf, Sadr City, and Kut; at the same time, we emphasize that a few weeks of training plus another few days do not make a soldier. There are concerns how well the Iraqis will hold out.

·         In a sense how well the Iraqis perform is irrelevant because the US will do the heavy lifting. And the Iraqi National Guard  may yet surprise everyone: it has much to prove, and its greater ability to fight in the southern cities is a good omen.

·         THE POLITICS OF ENTERING THE SHRINE OF IMAM ALI As with everything in Iraq, the behind-scenes action is murky. One of the Iraqi vice presidents is not helping matters: he has twice called for US troops to withdraw for Najaf and let the Iraqis handle Al-Sadr; the truth of the matter is, Iraq forces cannot do the job as yet.

·         The governor of Najaf has apparently not given US troops permission to enter the Shrine: they can enter the compound. Again, this may not be material because if the militia is confined to the shrine, even if Iraqi attack fail, it's a matter of time before the game if over.

·         The Iraq government has issued a very strong statement indicating it is prepared to take all measures necessary to eliminate the militia.

·         WEDNESDAY'S FIGHTING The last three days of fighting has been light, but that is only because the US and Iraq forces are preparing for the attack. In the major action Wednesday, US helicopters demolished a pilgrim hotel being used by the militia just 400 yards from the shrine. This is the closest to the shrine US forces have struck. Twenty militants were killed. To give an idea of how this battle, mainly in the cemetery, is playing out: militia men reoccupied the ruins of the hotel and resumed shooting at US troops.

·         MILITIA IMPROVES US sources on the scene say the militia is showing much greater coordination than in the spring fighting, and obviously has received training after that. Instead of the pell mell charges and equally pell mell retreats that characterized militia tactics, now units of five are in action: three riflemen protecting an RPG team. Again, however, none of this matters because the improvement can in no way nullify the US Marine/Army advantage.

·         THE SHRINE BLOCKADED We'd mentioned earlier that the US appeared to be moving into position to blockade the shrine. This looks to be the case: Wednesday Iraqi security forces cut roads between north and south Najaf.

·         THE CEMETERY As long as the Washington Post is not shameless pushing its editorial views as news, the paper can be quite useful when it works at giving readers a 3-D picture of a situation. Wednesday's post had a map of Najaf and more particularly the cemetery's environs, alas without marking off the Shrine. The Post reporter has done an excellent job of giving the atmosphere, as well as providing useful information. The cemetery has 2 million graves. That means a density of about 1.3 persons per square meter. Many of the graves are shallow. The Marines, as they fight, are crunching through generations of dead people, and it is proving a spooky business. The Marines interviewed were not happy desecrating the graves.

·         Of course, the Marines have the luxury of getting spooked and thinking about the dead. The battle is very low-intensity. Had this been Hue City, the Marines would have been so busy fighting - that worrying about graves and getting spooked would be the last thing that concerned them.

·         We have not heard what the Al-Sadr militia thinks about fighting in the cemetery. Presumably they are not concerned overmuch because the place has been their main base. Since they are soon going to be buried there, they at least have the advantage of being familiar with the place.

MORE IRAQ NEWS

·         BADR BRIGADES COMMANDER KILLED Another indicator in the wind supporting Paul Danish's thesis [see below]: the Shia commander of the Badr Brigades militia was killed by gunmen in a wayside ambush. The Brigades are tied up with Iran; the degree of influence Iran has over the brigades is stated differently by different people, but all counts it is considerable. The Sunni Jordanian terrorist al-Zarqavi claimed responsibility, but we think he is being a bit silly. Unleashing a sectarian war rebounds against the Sunnis, as even without counting Iran, they are in a 1-3 minority vis-a-vis the Shias.

·         OIL PIPELINE BACK IN OPERATION This being the Mideast, nothing should surprise our readers: the southern oil pipeline, shut down because of Al-Sadr militia threats to sabotage it, is back in operation. The Iraq government and the militia have reached an "agreement". Read money has changed hands. We prefer to give Al-Sadr the benefit of the doubt: we cannot believe these are his men, more likely they are renegades using his name, or some faction of his militia that has decided that cold cash is better than a hot grave.

·         SADR CITY For lack of time we have not been reporting on Sadr City, where more or less continuous skirmishes have been taking place between Al-Sadr militia and US/Iraq forces. Without going into complicated details, our readers would be wise to assume that US/Iraq forces at this time have no control over Sadr City.

·         SOUTH IRAQ Sporadic fighting has been taking place in the southern cities, with Basra being the scene of the worst incidents. The British, however, are killing Al-Sadr militia in good numbers - 14 on Wednesday - with only minor casualties to themselves.

IVAN DEONO'S LETTER ON THE DANISH THESIS

·         Please read our Orbat.com contributor Ivan Debono's letter, disagreeing with Paul Danish's thesis. Mr. Debono has a very interesting thesis of hiw own, on how the Mideast situation may play out.

·         Mr. Debono politely chastises your editor when he says the numerous boring incidents are of more interest than big theories, and this is the only one of his points that directly concerns us.

·         We feel compelled to say Mr. Debono is, of course, right. Which is why we seldom speculate.

·         In the case of Iraq at this point, however, we felt we owed it to our readers to speculate because taken by themselves, the myriad incidents make no sense. Mr. Danish's thesis has come closer than anything we have seen to explaining/tying up the disparate and seemingly unrelated incidents.

·         We also have to apologize to Mr. Debono and readers who share his viewpoint. Because of time restrictions, your editor resorts to shorthand - he speaks that way too. The result is that unless you are familiar with his eccentricities of talking and writing, you may find it difficult to see his point.

·         So, we'd like to reiterate one point of Paul Danish's thesis. The scenario he paints has the virtue of assuming no significant US commitment of ground troops to Iran.

·         Mr. Debono makes a good point in his letter when he says if the US is preparing to destroy Iran's nuclear infrastructure, why is US cooperating with the EU initiative to find a negotiated solution.

·         Again we have to apologize to him:  but for time, we'd have done a better job of explaining to our readers the US never agreed with the premises of the EU initiative. Because of the mess-up in Iraq, the EU held the moral high ground, and when the UK, Germany, and France told Washington "Look, you flatfooted and brainless giant, you've messed up Iraq, now let us show you how it's done. Negotiation and not force", the US had to stand aside.

·         The initiative, however, died in its infancy. Iran first seemed to be quite cooperative with the IAEA, which was the logical inspection agency under the EU plan. But then the IAEA started finding all kinds of anomalies in Iranian statements. It was clear Iran was not telling the truth, and when pressed just a little bit, Iran in effect retracted its agreement with the IAEA/EU and declared it has a right to do as it pleases.

·         Diplomacy being diplomacy, no one has brought the matter to a head yet, so every body can maintain the pretense that negotiations are still continuing. Technically they are. But if earlier the balance was 80-20 in favor of negotiation, right now it is 20-80 against.

·         Iran is not going to give up its nuclear program unless compelled, and if you look at this from Teheran's viewpoint, why should it act differently? Nuclear weapons are the only potential defense against US attack, and Teheran knows that that attack is coming regardless of what compromises Teheran makes under pressure. Otherwise Iran might still free negotiation is preferable. The US is gunning for Iran as it was gunning for Saddam. The US, contrary to popular belief, has shown a single-minded consistency through two centuries of diplomacy and action abroad. We could discuss this, but others can do it better. Our sole point is that Iran is an obstacle to US plans. Today, next year, or the year after - it makes no difference. The mullahs of Iran, and of course the despots of Syria, are in America's way, and they have to go.

·         This does not mean that Paul Danish's thesis is the only explanation for what's happening or that an attack is imminent. The UN Security Council process and more diplomacy have a way to go before matters are brought to a head.

2215 GMT August 11, 2004

·         NAJAF US troops are telling civilians to leave the area around the shrine of Imam Ali, the first time the US has called for a civilian evacuation. Contrary to what we have been saying that the US has no intention of going into the shrine, a US commander says the Iraq government has given him permission to do so.

·         Al Sadr, meanwhile, says he would welcome UN help to resolve the crisis, as sporadic fighting continued Tuesday. Mr. Kofi Anan says the UN is ready to help mediate.

·         ORBAT COMMENTS For the first time we learn of the dimensions of the cemetery near the shrine: CNN says it covers 15 square kilometers, and is a warren of catacombs and multistory mausoleums. Reports have said that the militia shoots at US troops from the cemetery, and when the US attacks, the militia pulls back into the shrine. To some of our readers 15 square kilometers may seem like no big deal, but short of dropping a bunch of Mother of All Bombs and the new Grandmother of all bombs, this is a very difficult battleground for the attacker. Right now the US is busy bombing and rocketing away, but just wiping out the cemetery will cause political problems, plus the big bombs are not precision weapons. Even if just one is dropped, if it goes off course by a few hundred meters, we may no longer have a shrine of Imam Ali - not a good situation.

·         Al Sadr is obviously very hard pressed right now. He has made several attempts to negotiate - while pretending to his followers he has done no such thing. We'd ask readers to keep in mind the real possibility that the fighting was started by the Iraqis/US and that Al Sadr may be speaking the truth when he makes that allegation. These situations become impossible to analyze because of the cause and effect, but we believe this particular round was triggered by the Iraqi police reclaiming areas that were under their command and which they lost in the spring fighting. Further, we believe on incomplete evidence that Iraq/US were eager to provide Al Sadr a casus belli because the decision had been taken it was time for him to be eliminated.

·         You should not take the above as Orbat.com making excuses for Al Sadr. The Iraq police had every right to retake lost areas and to tell the militia to disarm. This was essential to reestablish the authority of the Iraq government over the country. We are merely saying that according to what we hear, Al Sadr may not have started the fighting. The initial offer of "disarm and join the political process" by the Iraq Prime Minister may also have been simply been a feint, and that Al Sadr understood all too well his time was up. If he is going to die anyway, better to go down fighting.

PAUL DANISH'S GRAND UNIFYING THESIS ON WHAT'S GOING ON

·         Reader Paul Danish provides what to us seems the first conceptual framework that could explain what is going on. He is very clear that he has a limited set of facts to work from, and that much of what he says is speculation. We agree, at the same time, we find a lot of facts that are running around loose can be nailed down within his framework. Speculation or not, its informed speculation.

·         Paul Danish says that [1] Al Jazzera's forced blackout could be a  prelude to the final attack on Al Sadr. [2] When Iraq/US forces finish Al Sadr, evidence will be "discovered" that links Al Sadr to Iran. [3] After Al Sadr comes Fallujah, and again it will be "discovered" that Syria is backing the Fallujah insurgents. [4] The resulting nationalistic backlash against Iran and Syria will create the conditions for the recall of the old Iraq army. [5] Iran will either initiate hostilities - from Teheran's viewpoint Iran would simply be preempting - or an incident will be created which justifies Iraq to attack Iran. [6] Under cover of an Iraq attack, the US will destroy Iran's nuclear infrastructure. [7] This we think is particularly clever of Mr. Danish: the US has no need to move troops across the border into Iran, because the above will cause the civil war that has long been brewing in Iran to explode; the anti-mullah factions will call for help. This the US will provide discreetly and from the air - repeat of Afghanistan. [8] The US has no need to rebuild the Iranian polity after the mullahs are defeated: the great majority of Iranians long for democracy, it just that every time they have tried to reduce the mullahs' influence, they have been crushed.  This will not be an Afghanistan or Iraq situation because the Iranians will take care of their internal problems on their own.

·         You are, of course, welcome to agree or disagree with Paul Danish. We have been sent many interpretations of what is going on in the Middle East at this time, but none have made sense to us. Paul Danish's thesis has the virtue of tying up all the loose ends that right now are maddeningly flapping in our faces, with a malicious imp smacking us every now and then when we are distracted, shouting all the while with glee: "I know what's happening and you do not!"

·         There are so many loose ends we have not had the time or opportunity to share with our readers that you editor, at least, has been sitting around in resigned bafflement. For example, the discovery of the Iranian "spies", the kidnapping of the Iranian diplomat, and the discovery last week of boxes of weapons and munitions with Iranian markings. Iran has been pushing its border posts forward. Then there are the arrest warrants for Ahmad Chalabi - already alleged to be an agent of Iran.

·         Then we know the west has to do something about Iran's nuclear program. In your editor's opinion the west has been hugely exaggerating the time frame of the Iran nuclear threat, but there can be no doubt the Iranians are doing everything in their power to get nuclear weapons. Going into Iraq simply for the sake of going into Iraq makes zero strategic sense from the US viewpoint. The US attacked Iraq because it was part of its plan to reshape the Islamic world. Things went badly wrong for the US. So, does anyone believe that Washington has simply given up on the reshaping plan, and that Mr. Bush and the American power elite are simply sitting around sucking their thumbs? Any one with the least familiarity with Americans will know they are more likely to be doing their darnest to get back on track.

·         Not only does Mr. Danish's thesis help tie up all the loose ends, not only does it provide a plausible and wholly politically/militarily feasible option for the US to get back on track, the really odd thing about the situation is that the Iraq government does not have to make anything up! It needs to plant no evidence, because everything it has alleged or would allege under Mr. Danish's thesis is actually happening!

·         Iran is deeply enmeshed inside Iraq, and Syria in Fallujah. The Iraqi PM has said he wants to recall six divisions worth of disbanded Iraqi forces. Iraq really is working on nuclear weapons. The chasm between the 70% of Iranian who want freedom and the 30% who want the mullahs to rule is real. The attempts of the 70% to get democracy and the failure are all a matter of public record. Something is for sure happening on the Turkey-Iran border, something stirred up by the Kurds. We could go on, but we trust our readers will accept the real possibility Mr. Danish is right.

·         Even if he is not, his is the best attempt so far to explain what the evidence means.

2200 GMT August 10, 2004

·         11 MEU TAKES OVER NAJAF AND QUADISIYA PROVINCES Agencies say that citing deteriorating security conditions in the two provinces, 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit has taken direct control of operations there. The provinces fall under Multi National Division South Center, a Polish command.

·         We thought for a moment this was dramatic news, but on rethink we've changed our mind. US assumption of direct command as opposed to the MEU working through coalition command may simply be intended to speed up the decision-making cycle, given the exegeses of the situation.

·         NAJAF GOVERNOR PERMITS FORCES TO MOVE CLOSER TO SHRINE Agencies report that the Najaf governor has authorized Iraqi and US forces to move into the previously restricted zone surrounding the shrine of Imam Ali.

·         This tightens the  noose  around Al Sadr even more. The US says it has no plans to assault the shrine, but lets not forget the 1800 Iraqis fighting alongside the Marines. Stay tuned.

·         AL SADR MILITIA Unless the media is exaggerating the intensity of the fighting, it would appear that after the semi-lull on Sunday-Monday, the battle has picked up pace. The US says Al Sadr has 2000 men in the cemetery and the shrine - we realize yesterday the figure was 500, but in a confused situation like this we cannot blame the media: it all depends whom the person filing the earlier report talked to and under what circumstances. The cemetery is being attacked by airpower and Marines more or less continuously and any militants there should be done with in a few days. Keep in mind this is a huge cemetery, and the militia - to give it its due - is resisting from every tomb. The US is saying no more than it is dealing with the area around the mosque systematically, and our thought that a blockade was one way to finish the militia may have been on the mark.

·         AL SADR Now the man says he will fight in Najaf against the Americans till judgment day and his last day etc etc. He should prepare to be disappointed: if this situation continues, his last day is coming very soon, but we wager it will be an Iraqi soldier that kills him, not an American. The Americans are not going to go into the shrine, we're fairly certain of that.

·         AL SADR FIGHTS FOR IRAQ Just to underline the point Al Sadr is fighting for Iraq, one of his senior people has threatened to attack the southern pipelines. This is the reason they have been shut down, and why Quadisiya province has also been put under US direct command. That attacking the pipelines is attacking Iraq does not, of course, mean much to Al Sadr. He is Iraq by his definition, because everyone who doesn't agree with him is a  traitor, and thus not Iraqi. A man who can reason like that can convince himself of anything.

·         By the way, though for Iraq's sake we think he should be put down, we feel sorry for him that it has come to this. To die like a cornered rat is not terribly glorious, and to die shouting you are fighting jihad when no Iraqi seems to be listening, is rather pathetic. If he has been your editor's student, your editor would have straightened him out: a  lot of affection, a lot of positive input, a lot of getting him to believe he can achieve great things...your editor is sure it would work. Oh yes, did your editor forget the mandatory large doses of Ritalin and Prozac?

·         11 MEU Reader TAC tells us 11th MEU is not out of area: it was assigned to Najaf to relieve the brigade of 1st Armored Division that fought the spring battles and has gone home.

·         NAJAF vs VIETNAM So far the Marines have lost five KIA to an estimated 350 militia. It occurred to us today that Najaf is being conducted very differently from the Marine battles in Vietnam. The US has always said it cares for the life of every soldier, but in Vietnam it just wasn't so. US commanders had a "whatever it takes" attitude, and the casualties didn't matter. There were days in Vietnam where we'd hear that 30, 40, 60 Marines had been killed in absolutely insignificant, absolutely meaningless actions. There was a real "bring it on" attitude. The Marines for sure proved they were tougher than the NVA and the VC, who along with the Germans were probably among the best infantry since the Roman legions, but for what purpose?

·         Of course, we do need to note that the Marines of today and the enemy they face are completely different from 40 years ago. Today's grunts are highly trained compared to the old days, and the militia are a bunch of daisies compared to NVA/VC. Still, we're impressed the Marines are doing their best to follow the tenet: "It not my job to die for my country, my job is to make the other guy die for his country".

·         It's going to be a very long war, Iraq is just a curtain raiser, and it's a good thing the Marines are treating their men as high-value resources, instead of as cannon-fodder.

·         THANK YOU, OSAMA 1984 came and went, and many of us thought Orwell had been proved wrong. Thanks to Osama, Orwell's predictions may yet come true. We read that the US is creating a network of truckers, road maintenance crews, port workers, rest area workers numbering 400,000. The computer will know where every single truck in the United States is at any given minute, and information from the people engaged in trucking or supporting it, will be rapidly collated by the computer.

·         The implications of this are staggering, not least because this is just one of the new intelligence systems the US is putting together. Your editor has been saying for some time that we are within reach of technology that can track every single human being on the planet every second, and if need be, every methane-producing cow, every dog and every cat. Can we now doubt this is only a matter of time?

·         The computer will build up standard patterns, and any deviation will cause alarms to ring. We've all heard the simple exposition of Chaos Theory: the flap of a butterfly's wings off Tokyo can create a tornado in Los Angeles. Under this new system, the very second that the effects of the butterfly's wing become known as a break in the pattern, one day there is going to be a missile going the other way, and we'll have a new, mirror version of Chaos Theory. This will be called Order Theory, imposing Order on Chaos. Mr. Butterfly, you'd better be careful how you flap those wings,  because the slightest deviation, we're gonna get you, with a special anti-butterfly missile straight up the old wazoo.

·         No wonder so many of us old-timers no longer read sci-fi: the real world and universe is so much more fantastic than any human can dream of.

·         One thing that has always bugged your editor: why is the butterfly always off Japan and the tornado in Los Angeles? In the interests of fairness why cant we have it the other way around, just once...

2100 GMT August 9, 2004

·         IRAQ ULTIMATUM TO AL-SADR MILITIA AFP reports the Iraq Prime Minister has told the Al-Sadr militia to leave Najaf or face the consequences. Sporadic fighting has been continuing through the night of August 8/9.

·         US sources estimate 500 militia are left, holed up in and around the holiest mosque of Shia Islam, the shrine of Imam Ali. Opposing them are 5000 Iraq police, National Guards and US forces. Our understanding is the Iraq government is doing the best to find a peaceful resolution because it does not want to get into a fight around and inside the shrine. Clearly, however, the situation cannot be left to fester as is. One option that comes to mind is a blockade, as the area involved is just a few city blocks. The militia have large quantities of ammunition and arm stored, but we suspect they are less well prepared to hold out on water and food.

·         POLICE RAID FAILS Iraq police raided a residence looking for Al-Sadr, but he was gone by the time the police arrived.

·         DEATH PENALTY RETURNS Iraq has reintroduced the death penalty, this time limited to murder, drugs, and endangering national security. This is a big kick in the pants for the EU especially, and we are delighted. It is nothing short of obscene when the EU nations, which are models of tranquility, law and order, fair justice, and fair police, lecture Iraq, which in a state of open war, on how to manage its justice system. No doubt the next time the EU nations are involved in an insurgency war on their territory, they will insist on proper judicial proceeds, right to lawyers, and no death penalty for the people seeking to kill them.

·         A NICE QUOTE Your editor never had any doubt the US was doing the right thing when it stuck firmly to its handover of power deadline despite the chaos and the dire warnings. In case any Americans still doubt their government was correct, here is a quote from a Justice Ministry spokesperson: "Yesterday we announced an amnesty. Today the death penalty. Choose one of them". Even Mr. Ashcroft could not manage such a laconic statement. And only an Iraqi official could make that calm, but very aggressive threat.  The US administration in Iraq and Washington would have had the vapors just thinking of talking like that. No one took US threats seriously, even in the desert people know the US too well by now. We can be assured the threat uttered  by an Iraqi official will be taken very seriously indeed.

·         IRAQ-IRAN TENSION RISES An Iraq group kidnapped an Iranian diplomat and warned Teheran to stop interfering in Iraq's internal affairs. With a completely straight face an Iran official asked how many times was Teheran supposed to say it is not interfering in Iraq? The Iranians are so angry, they have rejected any serious talks with Iraq till the new government comes in.

·         We had a good snicker at the kidnapping news. On a personal level, we feel bad for the diplomat and his family. They must be undergoing a terrible ordeal. On a pragmatic level, this is the best thing that has happened to give Iran a pause before interfering. We pride ourselves on maintaining a somber demeanor while writing the daily update, but while being outwardly somber we are inwardly elated. That the kidnapping tactic has now been turned against an Islamic state is poetic justice indeed.

·         Iran hopes to have much say in the election for a national government. We wonder how much it will actually have. The Iraq secret security service is back, and the same Iraq nationalism that bedeviled the Americans when they were doing their darnest to help Iraqis is now free to turn against Iran.

·         HADITH DAM The Washington Post wrote an Iraq story that got technical details right, was informative, and absent of editorial comment in the guise of news...your  editor was so shocked and stunned he got into an - ahem - mixup with one of the younger boomers at the gym, and had to apologize because he was in the wrong. The boomer graciously accepted the apology after your editor explained the circumstances. The boomer  too was stunned and broke out in a sweat at this accomplishment of the Post...

·         The story relates how US SF troops seized control of the biggest hydel project in Iraq as the April invasion was under way. The US was worried Saddam would blow the dam, devastating agricultural production and power output. So the dam was seized, a contract was awarded to an American company for repair of a damaged turbine, and the repair backlog of 10 years taken care of. The journalist actually understood the role of hydel in stabilizing a power grid. The dam is so important it is protected by 400 Marines. The article nicely caught the flavor of their life in this little paradise of water and trees. It also nicely caught the Iraqi engineers' impatience to see the Americans off. For security reasons access within the dam area  is tightly controlled, and the Iraqis are fed up at not having unfettered access to their own dam.

·         So here is a case where the Americans did everything right: they anticipated destruction of the dam and so seized it rapidly, let the Iraqis get back to work, brought in a company that did its work rapidly and efficiently, and continue to protect the dam because of its importance.

·         With all respect to the Iraqi engineers, we understand why you want to say goodbye to the Americans, but you have to be patient. This is not the time for the Americans to go.

·         The story also shows how many troops it takes to guard one important installation. That's half a battalion not available anywhere else. The military is doing this right by not skimping on troops. As far as we know, there have been no incidents of import; it would be very easy for an over committed commander to leave three ad hoc platoons to guard the place and redeploy 280 soldiers elsewhere. The military, however, is not taking chances, and good for them.

·         A LAST DIG AT THE POST The Post is so pathetic at getting its facts straight that every time it talks about a power project, it will say "this can power X number of  homes".  This is supposed to illustrate to the Post's brain-dead readers the size of the project. But without exception in the last 14 years, the Post has assumed that 1 kilowatt capacity supplies a home.

·         First, a home does not exist in isolation. It is part of a town, which has roads and schools and shops and offices, and into which come all sorts of good produced in factories that need power. So that measure is useless.

·         Second, in reality, it is worse than useless. The average American home requires 1 kilowatt? Get a life, WashPost. You can just about run a small air conditioner on that. Ten 100-watt bulbs in your house use that power. Which American homes is the Post talking about?

·         Now, in a peculiar kind of way the Post may not be so far off field it cant see the batter with a 50X vision device: 24 kilowatt hours/day  may be a reasonable average for a year's consumption for a modest home. 1 kilowatt/hour per hour consumption...Naah. That's too complicated an explanation, and of course, its also completely meaningless.

·         A quick look at the first DOE figures we caught on the net gives 2000 generating capacity as 600 Gigawatts [the US imports power from Canada but lets keep this simple]. Back of envelope calculation, assume US population of 250 million at that time - it was more, but lets keep this simple. That gives 2.4 kilowatts generating capacity required for each person. Please do not send letters talking about load factors and distribution losses and all that: your editor is not a total idiot [he can say that only because Mrs. R is away].

·         Sorry - we didn't mean to insult the citizens of the Washington DC area by saying they are brain dead. They are, including your editor. But we should explain the longer you read the Post the deader your brain. We have a figure somewhere on how many neurons per second you lose reading the

2230 GMT August 8, 2004

·         IRAQ BANS AL-JAZEERA  The Iraq government has banned Al-Jazeera from operating inside Iraq for one month, saying the TV company was spreading racial hatred and inciting violence. To our mind, this is another example of the Iraq government's to take tough decisions.

·         AL-SADR The Iraq Prime Minister has invited Al-Sadr to stand in the planned elections.

·         This does not change the Iraq government's insistence that all militia's must disarm. The police chief of Najaf province has echoed the provincial governor's hardline, saying he has received reinforcements, and fresh arms and equipment, and that Al-Sadr will have to leave Najaf. The deadline was 1400 GMT Saturday, we have no news on what happened next.

·         While US fighter aircraft and helicopters continued to overfly Najaf, no serious fighting was reported.

·         We should have added earlier that 11th MEU is doing the fighting in Najaf. We are unclear why the Marines are out of area; I MEF is in Anbar province.

·         IRAQ ARRESTS ALLEGED IRAN SPIES A local newspaper is quoted by Jang of Pakistan as reporting that 4 alleged Iran spies have been arrested in Baghdad. Investigations are continuing.

·         ABU GHARIB HEARING Agencies report for the first time one MP testified today that he saw two MI officers abusing two detainees, and ordering a second accused - the person said to be the ringleader of the abusers - to get some MPs over and yell at the prisoners.

·         This testimony unfortunately does not cast any light on whether the MP in question was acting under orders by higher authority or cooperating on his own with MI. We also don't know what rank the MI soldiers were.

·         The hearing is adjourned by the judge while she decides on if to grant a defense request to call high ranking military and civilian officers to testify.

·         The lawyer for the MP in front of the hearing said that thanks to five days of hearings, he had now evidence from the prosecution case to dismiss some, if not all the charges against the MP.

·         In our opinion, this was a bit of grandstanding by the accused's lawyer. The sad reality is that she had no business being in the part of the prison where these abuses happened, and had repeatedly been warned to stay away. She was disciplined 4 times for being caught with the ring-leader despite her orders. She cannot pull the excuse "I was acting under orders", she was disobeying orders by being there in the first place.

·         YEMEN Jang of Pakistan, probably quoting AFP, reports that while fighting in the Maran Mountain against a fundamentalist cleric wanted by the government has died down, with only some pockets of resistance remaining, the cleric himself eludes capture.

·         NATO TRAINING MISSION ADVANCE PARTY ARRIVES BAGHDAD AP reports that 4 NATO officers arrived Baghdad Saturday as an advance part for 40 more trainers expected next week. They in turn will be followed in September by several hundred trainers. The advance party's leader said they were ready to start work, which at this stage consists of preparing for the entry of the rest of team, and then arranging liaison and protection with/from forces inside Iraq.

·         US INTERDICTS SYRIA BORDER Debka.com reports the US is interdicting the Iraq-Syria border to prevent the two-way traffic that has been ongoing since the April war. Baath officials go back and forth, and so do foreign and Iraqi fighters. The interdiction is called Operation Phantom Linebacker.

·         Orbat.com is terribly impressed and all that, and we hate to be negative. Why was this operation not begun last June or July. and what about the Iran border?

·         Incidentally, we read a while ago - probably in Debka - that the US has been constructing high earthen berms along the Iraq-Syria border. The public got a sight of such berms when the Marines cleared theirs from around Fallujah during the withdrawal. They seem to about 15 feet high with sides impossible to climb. Unless a working party wants to spend several days clearing by hand a passage for vehicles, infiltrators will have to use earthmoving machinery to breach the obstacle. In either case they will be caught within hours. This being barren desert, there is no question of infiltrating on foot.

·         We again note all kinds of things seem to be happening in Anbar province, but no meaningful news has emerged ever since the Marines arrived.

2330 GMT August 7, 2004

 

·         Agencies report US says 300 Al-Sadr KIA by US and Iraq troops in the last two days of fighting; Najaf governor says 400, plus 1000-1200 surrendered. A spokesman for the Iraqi PM has said all militia's must disarm, and that includes Al-Sadr. CNN says reporters asked the Iraqi PM if disarming also meant Fallujah, and he twice said "everybody". The US is using F-16s and AC-130s. As the last time around, Al-Sadr's men are using the enormous Najaf cemetery as a base, and the place is getting pounded. It may be that since US is acting at Iraq's behest, and as Iraqi troops are also fighting and need air cover, the US may be a little less sensitive to cemetery damage.

·          

·         The Iraqis have many times said only Iraqis know how to deal with Iraqis, and they are surely proving their point here. They seem determined to bring Al-Sadr to heel. What happens to him is, as yet, unclear. Will the Iraq government still try to co opt him? Will they jail him? Will they exile him? We have yet to see.

·         AYATOLLAH SISTANI HEADS FOR LONDON Meanwhile, a rather odd development: AFP and agencies say Ayatollah Sistani, the senior most Shia cleric is in the UK for medical treatment for a non-life threatening conditions. The Ayatollah rarely travels, and a spokesperson has dismissed as absurd speculation that he has been taken to safety while Iraq/US deal with Al-Sadr. If in fact he has been gotten out of the way, then he, at least, expects the Al-Sadr affair will be brought to a conclusion. He needs to be out either because he fears getting caught up in the fighting, or because he wants to say he was abroad and had no part in whatever unpleasantness is being arranged for Al-Sadr.

·         AFP says he has arrived because of heart trouble, the first time he has complained of this, and his people are concerned he might not get proper treatment in Najaf because of the fighting. Hmmmm.

·         DEBKA'S TAKE ON SISTANTI'S DEPARTURE Debka.com sees the departure as a severe setback for the US because Sistani's moderation will not be in evidence. Debka may well be right and we wrong. At the same time, Debka's take assumes that the US somehow needs help from Sistani in controlling Al-Sadr. The US may have needed Sistani to keep Shias calm during the April-June fighting. But now it's the Iraq government that's gunning for Al-Sadr - the situation is different. Moreover, no one seems to like Al-Sadr in Najaf any more.

·          Al-Sadr, acting for the benefit of Comedy Central as usual, had declared the US is his enemy and Iraq's enemy, but he gives the Iraq government the benefit of the doubt by saying they perhaps do not know what they are doing and that they are acting at the US's behest. This must be third or fourth time has declared the US his enemy; further, a while ago wasn't he saying he didn't accept the interim government and anyone who worked with the Americans is a traitor. Might he be trying to make nice to the Iraq government now they have shown they are determined to crush him? Interestingly, he is calling for a ceasefire. At least he knows this time he in serious trouble.

·         CORRECTION We erred in saying the Abu Gharib trial is taking place in Iraq. It is at Fort Bragg, and witnesses phoning in are those still on duty in Iraq.

·         The most recent testimony appears to offer to us a slight "out" for the MP soldier: witnesses have said her boyfriend is the one who arranged the various episodes and she was going along with him. None of this may be material to the court, because she repeatedly violated discipline, and we're not sure the theme of younger woman under control of abusive older man is going to play well with the court. They may well say that a soldier is a soldier.

·         YEMEN Jang of Pakistan reports Yemen is continuing its offensive against the fundamentalist cleric and his militia. The military says it has taken control of the hills in the area and that the cleric is holed up with his followers at a town nearby. The army expects the offensive to be wrapped up in 24 hours.

2100 GMT August 6, 2005

 

·         AL-SADR EPISODE XLI Al-Sadr's militia fought Iraqi, US, and UK forces in 4 cities: Najaf, Basra, Nasiriyah, and Sadr City, Baghdad. This round's origins lie in Al-Sadr's refusal to subordinate himself to the new Iraq government after the June ceasefire agreement. After a Al-Sadr leader was arrested by Iraqi forces in Karbala some days ago, the militia started kidnapping Iraqi police as a way of getting their man released. He was not released; on Thursday the militia attacked security forces in the four cities. The Italians fought off the militia without casualties to itself; AFP says in Basra four UK soldiers were wounded. In Najaf and Sadr City US rapid reactions teams arrived as backup, and in Najaf, US airpower was used. AFP reports that as of Friday morning intermittent air attacks are still taking place on targets in the cemetery that was the scene of many engagements between US and militia forces earlier. US reports 17 militia as dead in all four incidents, but there is confusion about casualty numbers. Iraq's prime minister vowed not to negotiate and to kick the troublemakers out of the country. This seems to imply what many have been saying for several months, Al-Sadr is backed by the Iranians.

·         Looks like the young pup is at it again, and is getting smacked again. In Al-Sadr's view, anyone who strops him from doing anything illegal has violated the terms of the ceasefire, is an American agent, etc. etc. Al-Sadr has a one point agenda: Al-Sadr. Unfortunately for him, few Iraqis seem to get the point - one of the many reasons he agreed to ceasefire in June, aside from the hundreds of his militia that got killed, was that the people of Najaf wanted to run him out of town, and were dissuaded only by the senior clerics who fear civil war.

·         Free advice to the senior clerics of Najaf, most respectfully. You are going to get your civil war the more surely the longer you leave this sore to fester. You know Al-Sadr wants to be the grand ayatollah of Iraqi Shias, and we gets hints that in his ravings he has let on he wants to be the grand ayatollah of all Shias, which mean those in Iran too. It is exceedingly silly of you and the Iranians to think you can use him. The Iraqi PM has the right idea: stamp him out.

·         In a grand gesture, Al-Sadr declared a revolution and called the people to join him. Yawn. He also declared a holy war on the British. Double yawn. In the heydey of British imperialism, the Brits would have sent a junior captain to take care of you. So, times have changed. The British don't have the physical power to be imperial, the Americans have the power but are a bit confused as how it should be used. But Mr. Al-Sadr, don't hold your breath waiting for the British to be terrified. We doubt anyone in Britain is devoting any thought to your threat except for a few senior officers and bureaucrats who don't have anything better to do. And we doubt they are shaking in their boots.

·         The episode 41 headline is somewhat facetious, because no one is keeping track of how many times this many has made an ass of himself. You have to hand it to him: no matter to what idiotic depths he sinks, he is ever determined to be even more stupid the next time. He has his chance to become an important part of the political process, and maybe 20-30 years down the road become an all-Iraqi leader. But no: like Kingsley Amis' sort of heroine, Al-Sadr Wants It Now. [We hope readers are suitably impressed by the literary allusion. The book is one of four novels your editor has actually read. He was stuck in some airport because the locals had no sense of humor and did not want him to enter their country.]

·         PAKISTAN  Jang of Pakistan reports continued fighting between tribesmen and the Pakistan Army in the area of Wana, North West Frontier Province. The Pakistan Army is using gunships with an occasional CAS sortie flown by F-7s. We are no clearer today on what is going on than we were yesterday.

·         YEMEN AFP reports that the Yemen Army launched another offensive on the fundamentalist preacher they have been fighting, after negotiations broke down. Thirty army troops were killed along with 18 militants: local sources say the heavy army loss was because troops were exposed as they attacked mountain posts held by the rebels.

·         DAFUR The African Union was to send 300 troops to protect UN sanctioned observers in Dafur, but now the talk is that 2000 troops should go. Nigeria has already volunteered a battalion. The main hold up is the Africans need logistics support from the west and for reasons unknown to us this support has not materialized.

·         DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND INSECURITY The Laurel and Hardy act between the White House, Department of Homeland Security, and various other agencies on the current terror alert continues. First a threat was imminent and high security was enforced in Washington and New York. Then, no, the information is from years ago. Yesterday, no, no, the intelligence is new and from  separate stream. More episodes to follow as they are reported in the media.

·         After much analysis, Orbat.com has figured out the reason for the contradictory statements and general mess-up. This is all part of a devious plan by Secretary Ashcroft to convince Al-Qaeda that Americans are  buffoons. That will lead Al-Qaeda to figure they can relax their security and then the Americans will reel them in. Or they wont. Or they will. Or they wont. Just as some of the suspects arrested in Pakistan and UK are very important Al Qaeda operatives. No they're not. Yes they are. No they're not.

·         Take a lesson from the UK, folks. They arrested 12 terror suspects over the last couple of days, and the official police spokesman said merely that the police were not going to be drawn into a game of speculation with the media and that the police had nothing more to say.

·         KUDO FOR THE WASHINGTON POST The Post's second-ranking editor in India is an Indian. He did not exactly cover himself with glory in Iraq, and in fact was responsible for a lot of the terrible reporting on the Post's part. Nonetheless, in your editor's opinion the gentleman  has redeemed himself: he has written a detailed story of how routine police torture is in India. Of course the gentleman has the protection of the Post and all that that implies, still, it took courage to write the story, moreover, it is all true if quite understated.

·         When the Indian police beat a suspect to death - which is quite often, as beating a person to an inch of their life is a complex business, big, tough suspects can die with a couple of punches, skinny and undernourished suspects can withstand days of torture - the inevitable police explanation is the suspect committed suicide. Your editor's favorite is a spate of "suicides" in custody in India in the 1970s, attributed to the suspect breaking a light bulb and eating the shards.

·         You have to ask, what extreme torture must the suspect have undergone that he chose to end his life in this extremely painful manner. You also have to ask what the police were doing while the suspect died slowly of a shredded digestive system. Of course, it wasn't the suspect eating the glass, it was the suspect being made to eat finely ground glass. In the interests of not upsetting the more gentle of our readers, we will not tell what happens next.

·         Your editor has often criticized the Americans for not caring what is happening in their prisons. In all fairness, he has to say that the Indian elite's indifference to what common people endure at the hands of the police is a worse crime, because it is only one indifference among dozens where common folk are involved. Things are very slowly changing as the HR revolution sweeps the world; it's still too little, too slow. Your editor was for 20 years one of that elite. He was equally culpable, but then he had his own fights to fight, and how many crusades are you going to fight before  you end up losing all?

2245 GMT August 5, 2004

·         PAKISTAN Many odd things are happening in Pakistan, and we are not going to pretend we understand what's happening. First, fighting between the Pakistan Army and militants in Wana has been continuing for several days now. The areas concerned are sealed off; the press is not allowed in; and the Pakistan government is not saying a word. Second, Jang of Pakistan quotes opposition leader and former PM of Pakistan, Ms. Benazir Bhutto, as asking why gunships have been used in Baluchistan. Third, Jang refers to overseas reports that President Musharraf has had army officers arrested. We're concerned that any attempt at speculation will only confuse the issue - that's how little we know.

·         The person who does know, we have not been able to reach in three years of trying. If anyone reading this knows Mr. Samuel Baid of UNI, please ask him to get in touch with us: we need his knowledge and insights on Pakistan, especially since 9/11.

·         MOSUL Fighting has resulted in the deaths of 8 insurgents, including a brother of the Ansar-i-Islam terror group's leader. The trouble began when Iraqi insurgents engaged Iraqi and US forces in Mosul. 14 civilians have also been killed, and about 50 injured.

·         To us the interesting part is a report that says the insurgents also attacked a bank, but the bank guards fought them off, wounding some of the insurgents. Looks like the Iraqis are starting to stand their ground.

·         IRAQ TRUCKERS A report we read in passing and so cannot source says the Iraqi government is creating a security force for civilian truck convoys. Convoys are to have a vehicle with machine guns at the front and rear, and every truck is to have an armed guard. Ofcourse, this wont protect against IEDs, but still, it's a big start towards find a solution to attacks on convoys.

·         The Iraqis have been saying from the start of the US invasion: gives us the means to do the job, and we will do it ourselves. Seems like they had a point here.

·         MARINES IN ANBAR A Washington Post picture caused us to pause. The picture shows a Marine patrol searching a road for IEDs. Every Marine is covered from head to toe in uniform, helmet, gloves, flak jacket, and each is laden with equipment. You'll see the same is true when the news shows US Army soldiers. The temperature routinely goes above 120 degrees F, and - as was pointed out to us - temperatures are measured in the shade. The temperature in the open could be approaching 140 degrees. These men must be really tough to function under such conditions.

·         When your editor used to travel to Iraq, for some reason even in the desert he always wore a suit and tie, gloves, and carried an umbrella. Folded, of course - totally declasse to open it, rain or sun. There were days when the shade temperature was 125 degrees F. It's true that the humidity is almost zero, and there is usually a breeze. At the same time, your editor's clothes including shoes weighed less than 4-kg, and the only slogging he did was from an air conditioned car to ancient structures built of baked mud bricks, which are surprisingly cool. The American soldiers and Marines have what to your editor's now unpracticed eye at least 40 kilos of gear, and they have to work in that gear.

·         ABU GHARIB TRIAL Your editor is saddened to hear the latest testimony given at the trial of the MP we have mentioned. The trial [improper term, but we forget the right word] is taking place in Iraq; in some cases witnesses at US bases are testifying and being cross-examined over the telephone.

·         First, this MP was constantly sneaking off to the "hard" area to see her boyfriend. She was caught four times in bed with him, reprimanded each time, and once even ordered not to go anywhere alone unless it was to her quarters, the bathroom, her office, and church. Apparently, as a personnel clerk, she did not keep her work in order.

·         Second, a MI senior NCO testified that the Iraqis in the pictures are civilian criminals, not insurgents or high-value detainees. He says none of the MPs was asked to soften up anyone; parading suspects naked and forcing them into sexually humiliating poses is not part of MI interrogation tactics because it just doesn't work. Insurgents are expecting all kinds of pain and humiliation. Lest we start crying "coverup!", remember that the MP has been quoted by witnesses as saying she was just engaging in a little fun.

·         The above being the case, your editor first has to whack himself on the hand. Just because he is an old person and the MP is female, young, and attractive, he was taken in. He is not at all interested in what she was doing for fun and would like to be spared the moral outrage. What's really bad is that [1] She repeatedly violated discipline and [2] despite several reprimands and her frequent presence in an unauthorized area, no officer seems to have taken meaningful action against her.

·         We are more concerned with what this says about discipline in 800th MP Brigade. How can any army tolerate this kind of behavior?

·         We are also very concerned about the constant harping by accused persons that they were acting on orders from MI - even the brigade commander has said so - and the constant readiness of the media to swallow the story and start searching for scapegoats further up the line of command, so they can have a more dramatic story.

·         We have to ask, what coverup? The indiscipline was reported on by a solider in the brigade, the investigating officers took the whole thing seriously and solidly worked their way through, matters were reported to the head office in Washington, enquiries were ordered and were being conducted, when somehow the pictures appeared in public. If the commander US forces Iraq failed to ring up the media at 2 in the morning to say abuse allegation had been leveled, neither he, nor any superior or subordinate officer, is covering up. The matter becomes the business of the public only after conclusions have been reached, or if the Army fails to act. It did not fail, and conclusions were yet to be made. Oh yes - another accusation - why was the Army taking so long over its investigation? Well guess what, ladies and gentlemen: the Army has a war to fight, and believe it or not, the mistreating of a bunch of prisoners who by all accounts were a very bad lot is not a high priority matter. Further, remember the little thing called due process that our HR friends have been demanding for detainees? It's just bad luck, isn't it, that Americans are also entitled to due process. But that's the way it is.

·         The only coverup we see is by the officer commanding the MP Brigade. This officer has pulled out all the stops: sexism, discrimination because she is a reserve officer - anyway, let's not go there. These things have been endlessly discussed.

·         Okay, so your editor is an old idiot whose judgment ceases if young, attractive, female persons are involved,  he still thinks the MP has suffered enough.

·         RUMSFELD The commission investigating Abu Gharib and the handling of detainees in general is expected to put blame on Mr. Rumsfeld - for not sending enough troops to Iraq so that places like Abu Gharib could be properly staffed, and for saying that new interrogation rules were required because this was a new war, but then failing to provide precise guidance as to what was acceptable and what not. This second point has nothing to do with the Abu Gharib MPs, rather it concerned treatment of detainees in Afghanistan and Guantanamo Bay.

2200 GMT August 4, 2004

·         AFGHANISTAN In what is said to be the biggest battle in Afghanistan since the fall of the Taliban in 2001, Afghan troops backed by US airpower have killed between 40-70 militants, including some that were probably Al-Qaeda.

·         The difficulty with Afghan/Iraqi body counts is that the insurgents go to extreme lengths to recover bodies or at least to bury them immediately. This is a very interesting military tactic. In the case above, US helicopter pilots reported seeing 40-50 bodies after the air strikes. The Afghan commander's estimate is 60-70, but he was quick to say his men had recovered only 10 bodies. A further complication is that, of course, the Afghan/Iraq insurgents are not uniformed, and fight from within the civilian population. Take away a dead insurgents gun, and there is no way aside from forensic methods to say if he fired a gun. That's why all the people being killed in Iraq, at least, are "civilians".

·         DPRK MISSILES Joseph Stefula forwards an article by the well-known DPRK expert, Joseph Bermudez. Mr. Bermudez says that is possible within a short time DPRK will be able to put liquid-fuelled SLBMs on old submarines purchased from Russia under the guise of scrap. The missile technology has also come from Russia, and it is 40 years old, which means DPRK has the ability to locally manufacture these missiles of range 2400-4000 km. That in turn will give DPRK a long-sought weapon, a first strike missile it can deliver against the continental US. The article appears in the August 4 issue of Jane's Defense Weekly. We are positive without checking the material is copyright to Jane's, so we cannot reproduce it

·         We are unsure what to make of this. Mr. Bermudez is indeed an expert in his field, we can attest to that because he has sent us the occasional, fascinating historical article on the DPRK military. On the other hand, to us the likelihood that DPRK will actually manage to put missiles on a submarine and get to striking distance of the US is low. The system is probably of greatest danger to the crew and the boat.

·         SADDAM The ICRC visited Saddam for the fourth time. A doctor was part of the team. Saddam is suffering from a chronic prostrate infection, a hernia, and various other problems and is being given treatment.

·         Before we members of the I Love Saddam society start cheering, we spoke with a doctor friend. He said depending on the cancer, Saddam could well die of old age before the cancer gets him.

·         ABU GHARIB TRIAL The US Military Policeman who appears in many of the infamous photographs,  presently in detention at Ft. Bragg, has appeared before a military judge and apparently has said the pictures were taken just for fun.

·         Odd as it may seem, we - at least - believe her. Young people often don't show the judgment they need to. The soldier's problem is that she could get 38 years for having her fun, and while US prisons in general are no joke, the military prisons are absolutely no joke. A friend very angry about Abu Gharib and the damage to America's image, plans to send a postcard to the MP when she is incarcerated asking: "Are we having fun yet?".

·         Not that the court is the least interested in our opinion, but personally we'd recommend the judge order a dishonorable discharge and no prison time. It's not right a young woman, involved in an unwise  relationship with an older man who has the reputation of being unkind to people in his civilian life as a warder, should be looking at 38 years while her commanders are running around happy as larks.

·         WMDs General Tommy Franks, Central Command commander for Gulf II, says in his recently published memoirs that he was told both by his Jordanian and Saudi counterparts that Saddam had biological WMDs. One told him to prepare his men for their use, so sure was he that that would happen.

·         IRAQ PIPELINE Saboteurs cut the Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline, shutting oil exports via the northern route.

·         AL-QAEDA COMPUTER EXPERT Several reports say the Al Qaeda per arrested some days ago by the Pakistanis is a computer expert for Al Qaeda, and the authorities are learning much of great interest. Apparently, however, two of the no-names arrested with him are the source of the gold: they led the Pakistanis to stashes of documents.

·         ORANGE ALERT The Orange Alert ordered for Washington and New York is said by some to be relying on information seized (see above) that relates to terrorist planning and surveillance activity before 9/11. Some US officials have said they have no idea if the activity continued after 9/11. This has led other people to allege the Orange Alert is more political than a genuine threat.

·         We don't want our readers to think we are copping out, but personally we find the machinations of terrorists/security agencies to be not just horribly headache-making, but also of no real interest. There is no way for us to evaluate who's telling the truth, who's fudging the truth, and who's making up the truth. Lies, false information, and paranoia are necessarily part of the game the terrorists/security forces are engaged in. we doubt even the people involved know the truth. So please excuse us over this one...

TONY BLAIR'S REELECTION

[Your editor has decided that because many of our letters are of much use in understanding things, we should give the letters a greater prominence.]

·         Two readers have been kind enough to send their views on why Blair may well be reelected.

·         FROM GRANT McVEY  The Economist suggests Blair's impending reelection has to do with the fact that the Labor party is well organized, power is being
shifted from the Chancellor (Gordon Brown) to Mr. Blair ( and so the party's largely in line. In addition the Tories suffer from their leader, who said he supports the war but would have voted against it if he knew then what he knows now.... The Butler report on intelligence failures was apparently gentle on Mr. Blair, and while I haven't read the report myself the Economist writes that it leaves a suggestion that weapons might be found.

·         My opinion on how Tony Blair can remain so strong, is because England isn't too different from my own Canada: You might want the government gone for the mess they've made, but there are no viable (or palatable) alternatives at this time. Mr. Blair at least justification for holding on to power, being a man of conviction and values.

·         FROM GARETH BOWMAN There are two and a half mainstream political parties in the UK, the main two being Labor (traditionally Left Wing, equivalent of the Democrats), and the Conservative [or Tories] (Right wing, similar to the Republicans). Margaret Thatcher followed by John Major were the last Tory Prime Ministers. Labor won massively in 1997 and 2000 (ish) after moving from very left wing, to more left of centre, and in some cases right-ish wing, it should be remembered though, that all American politics is way way right of anything that would happen here.

·         Since losing in 1997 the Tory party has collapsed totally with lame duck leaderships of William Hague and Iain Duncan Smith being forced to resign, after pursuing right wing strategies, which everyone except hard core Tory voters hated. The other two parties are the Liberal Democrats which whilst being anti-Iraq war, were pro-Afghanistan but felt Iraq was badly conceived and badly justified, whilst having no sympathy at all with Hussein. Liberal Democrats claim to now be the true opposition party at the expense of the Tories and whilst still the official 3rd party are increasingly picking up disgruntled Labor votes.

 

2230 GMT August 3, 2004

·         DAFUR A UN official says there has been improvement in the Dafur refugee crisis. Sudan is no longer preventing aid convoys from reaching, and has stopped forcing Dafur refugees back to their villages - where they are victimized all over again.

·         PALESTINE Gunmen killed two alleged informers in their hospital beds, not one as we had reported earlier. The incident started when a guard threw a hand grenade into a jail cell, killing one person outright and injuring other occupants. When the injured were taken to hospital, gunmen arrived to finish their job.

·         KASHMIR Times of India reports the Indian Army as saying now Pakistan based militants are pushing armed children as young as 13-14 across the line of control. The Indian Army has captured nine children, none of whom were apparently told anything about the new electrified fence, and none of whom seemed to have much idea of what was going on. The Army is engagement of hostiles policy if children are involved, the emphasis is to be on capturing them alive.

·         Nonetheless, if any of these kids does manage to open fire and wound or kill a member of the security forces, then the Army is likely to be less forgiving.

·         TERROR ALERT The heightened alert for New York and Washington is based on specific information obtained from a terrorist captured in Pakistan. He has been wanted since 1998. Two computers were seized, and to the Americans' delight there is a trove of information on Al Qaeda tactics, plans, leaders and so on. Reuters says one official said it was like being handed a playlist.

·         We assume the reference is to the detailed playlist prepared by American football teams for each game.

·         Incidentally, the Pakistani woman detained in Texas has no connection with Al Qaeda.

·         BUSH AND KERRY: NO DIFFERENCE We don't follow American politics, but we have been warning our foreign friends who gleefully ask what are the chances Kerry will win, that we do not care who wins because on foreign policy both will be exactly the same. If Osama had struck during Clinton's time, Clinton would have had to do exactly the same thing as Bush.

·         Kerry has already said his grand plan for solving the Iraq mess is - making major reductions in US forces in 4 years. That means he is allowing himself 8, the length of the two terms he can govern if he wins twice. That means that Kerry is also ready to stay in Iraq a long, long time. We don't think that makes him a hypocrite or a bad person, he has no choice but to think of America's interests first.

·         BUT: We are told - much to our surprise, but then we don't follow domestic politics - that there is one vital difference. If Kerry wins, the international community and EU/NATO in particular will step in to help. Apparently the rest of the western world is not being stupid in refusing to help. Their people cannot stand Bush, and even if the leaders personally want to help, they will be crucified by their electorate. So, EU/NATO will not do  a thing to help Bush. They want to first see how the election plays out. Interesting.

·         An English friend tells us Mr. Blair is on track to win a third term. Our reaction, given our understandable ignorance of UK politics, was "Say what again?" We thought Mr. Blair, because he stood with Mr. Bush, was as dead as one can be and still have a measurable pulse. Can someone explain this to us, please?

·         ABU GHARIB VS THE US OF A