1200 GMT April 30, 2004

Siege of Fallujah Lifted

ˇ         Agencies including AFP and CNN report US troops are moving out of south Fallujah: by the end of the day only about 80 troops will be left and they too will leave. Wire is being taken down and earthen berms blocking highways are being bulldozed.

ˇ         This may seem to be in line with what we reported yesterday. But - reports also speak of the north Fallujah siege being lifted after the south side. The north side is where the foreign fighters and die-hard Saddam loyalists are. This would invalidate our analysis below.

ˇ         At the same time, we may not be wrong. The Fallujah Protection Force, now said to have an upper estimate of 1100 men under a former Republican Guard major-general, is getting set to restoring order inside the city. The foreigners have no interest in any such thing. The FPF has two choices: go after the foreign fighters itself, or negotiate a live-and-let alive arrangement. We do not see how either course is possible. FPF is at this time simply a hastily organized militia, built - we suspect - around an understrength Iraq Army battalion and ICDC battalions recruited in Anbar Province. They lack the training, firepower, and leadership to go after foreign militants who may outnumber them 2-1. Conversely, the US will not accept a large contingent of foreign fighters moving freely around the city.

ˇ         So what is going on? Our analysis as of this time is that [1] the US has bought valuable credits in the court of Iraqi and world opinion by lifting the siege and letting the Iraqis themselves handle security; [2] when action against the militants begin, the US forces will "support" the FPF and the action will be billed as an Iraqi offensive. Actually the Marines will do most of the fighting. even if all American troops are out of Fallujah, they can be back at the city center within 2-4 hours if they need to be.

ˇ         Meanwhile, indications are that negotiations are very much in progress at Najaf. The latest theory is that Al-Sadr's men will disarm, the US will promise not to enter Najaf, and Al-Sadr will either stay under clerical protection or be allowed to proceed to some place where he will be safe for the time being - this is the same deal as an Arab media source reported about two weeks ago.

0300 GMT April 30, 2004

Good News Behind the Bad News

ˇ         AFP and other agencies say that even as it denies it is lifting the seize of Fallujah, US Marines are withdrawing as of today from the southern side of the city. They are handing over control to a new Fallujah Protection Force - no one has heard of it till today, just another mystery to be worked put. And people say the Americans cant keep secrets. Interestingly, a former veteran Saddam general will lead the force: we'd be safe to assume he is a Sunni. Other reports say four reinstated generals were among those in Fallujah for negotiations.

ˇ         A CNN story makes apparent what has been happening, except the story has the timeframe wrong. It says that ex-Saddam generals volunteered to go to Fallujah and raise a force of between 600-1000 from former police and soldiers to take over from the US. Apparently the process has been going for some days. Getting a few hundred hard-core Sunni soldiers back into the army will make a good start in ending the alienation felt by the Sunnis.

ˇ         Orbat.com Analysis The move comes at a time the US has been leaking information that the Fallujah buildup/encirclement is complete and troops are waiting only the go-ahead for the final offensive. US spokespersons are right: the withdrawal from South Fallujah only means more Marines are now available for the offensive. What the news media has unintentionally mostly obscured is that except for the northern industrial zone, Falluja has been quiet since the cease fire was announced. The trouble has been coming from this one particular part of the city, and that is where the 1500-2000 foreign fighters are located. [The numbers are higher than those used before and show the US has better information.] The impression that the news has conveyed is that fighting has been going on all around Fallujah. Presumably in the interest of operational security, the US has not - till now - been correcting the general impression of Fallujah in flames. We do not know for a fact, but suspect that the Marines have been getting as many civilians as possible out of the area so that it is going to become a free-fire zone. The enthusiasm with which the US has been unleashing heavy weapons in the northern part of the city indicates, to us at least, that the US is reasonably satisfied inordinate civilian casualties will not be caused by the offensive. Today aircraft dropped 6 guided bombs on two buildings used by snipers, AC-130s and SuperCobras have been in action for the last several days.

ˇ         Now what we'd like to know is what's happening in Najaf. There has been a news blackout, intentional or otherwise, from the area. All we know is that US troops seized a checkpoint on the Najaf-Aufa road from Al-Sadr's men; this means not only that a confrontation has already taken place, but that the US continues to surround Najaf. No more Friday show times for Al-Sadr at the Aufa mosque.

ˇ         Orbat.com gives itself a pat on the back: the Washington Times today carries a story which makes evident the US has been conducting reconnaissances by fire in the northern suburbs, confirming our speculation of yesterday. And the Marines have been quite aggressive about the process all while blaming the insurgents for starting the fighting. The insurgents are stupid enough that probably at times they have been starting the fighting. But what does that mean? A lone sniper fires a single shot, or a charged up insurgent fires off an AK-47 magazine at nothing in particular. We doubt the Marines are even waiting for that single shot. The Washington Times story clears up something that has puzzled your editor for days: it is not like the Marines or the US Army to passively sit around for weeks waiting for negotiations. The "negotiations" were highly successful - with the native people of Fallujah who are now out of the loop. Meanwhile the US has been pressing forward every time. This is one reason Marine commanders say when the end comes, it will be very quickly.

ˇ         The War on Terror has at least one proof of its success: CNN reports that a US State Department report says that  global terrorist attacks are at their lowest point in 30 years. The US does not count attacks against its combatants as acts of terror, and this is only fair.

ˇ         Orbat.com correspondent Keith Loescher sends a correction: the five howitzers at US ski resorts that are being recalled to service are the lightweight towed 105mm M-119s [not as your editor read it, M-109s].

 

 

0315 GMT April 29, 2004

ˇ         AFP says an AC-130 attacked targets in Fallujah Wednesday night, again setting off big secondary explosions. US troops interdict the Kufa-Najaf road by moving into a base the Spanish are vacating.

ˇ         CENTCOM says [KCAL TV, Los Angeles, CA] Fallujah is surrounded and there are 1500 insurgents, mostly foreigners, in the city. [Thanks to reader Jose joseag238] Orbat.com wonders if one of the reasons the Marines accepted a ceasefire was to gain time to determine the number of fighters in Fallujah. One technique is reconnaissance by fire. This is purely speculation on our part, but it may account for what we have assumed is the fighters' stupidity in repeatedly attacking Marine positions only to get wiped out. Maybe it isn't the fighters doing the attacking in all cases.

ˇ         Agencies say Muslim youths attacked 15 Thai police stations, village defense posts, and other targets in an attempt to gain access to weapons. The Muslim dominated south has claimed of discrimination on the part of Bangkok. The police were tipped off and were waiting in ambush: 107 attackers were killed, plus 5 Thai security personnel. 32 attackers alone were killed when they too shelter in a mosque during the fighting and Thai security forces attacked the mosque. The Muslim young men seemed to have few firearms, if any, being in the main armed with machetes. A Thai commander said the young men were high on drugs.

ˇ         News of the Absurd Reader George Fescos sends an AP report that the US Army is requisitioning five M-119A 155mm howitzers it had lent to two American ski resorts because of the needs of the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars. The howitzers are used to blast loose snow off ski hillsides, thus reducing the chance of avalanche. Orbat.com confesses to being dumbstruck for once. No snappy comments, because we can't even imagine what the US Army is doing or thinking. The howitzers must be in the battle theatre in 60-90 days.

ˇ         More News of the Absurd CNN reports that  "In a brazen display in Fallujah, insurgents are distributing posters in Arabic and English offering a $15 million reward to anyone who kills Rumsfeld, commander of coalition forces Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez or U.S. Army spokesman Brig. Gen. Mark Kimmitt." We already know the insurgents have little by way of strategic thinking skills, and to imagine any one is going to get near enough to kill these three gentlemen is mildly absurd. The insurgents are safe in offering the money; it will never have to be paid. If the insurgents are to grandstand, why waste time and money on poor Mr. Rumsfeld, who will go down in the history books for Rummy Speak - "There are things we know, things we think we know, things that we don't know, and things that we don't know we don't know" [This is a recollection from memory, but what a marvelous statement. Correct words welcomed if any one can take the trouble to send them to us.] Moreover, it must be horribly deflating for Mr. Rumsfeld to be equated with a mere one-star general who is the US spokesperson in Iraq. Alternately, if a simple spokesperson can drive the insurgents to the crazy point where they offer top dollar for his head, maybe the US has found yet another tool for its PyschWar inventory.]

0245 GMT April 28, 2004

ˇ         AFP reports US says 64 insurgents killed in Najaf fighting, including 57 men around an anti-aircraft gun. AC-130 fires 20-25 105mm rounds in Fallujah, triggering two big secondary explosions, after US Marines came under fire.

ˇ         Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld, who we admire greatly [seriously], continues to drive us nuts with his micro management. Newsweek makes very serious allegations that at this time there are only 70 M-1 tanks in Iraq, the rest having been deployed back; the Marines did not bring their tanks to Iraq; the 1st Cavalry Division, which is actually a tank division, has arrived without 80+% of its AFVs. Why? Because of Mr. Rumsfeld's insistence of light forces backed by airpower. The problem, Newsweek says, is the US is losing men in Humvees that are not armored, often the armor does not stop even AK-47 rounds, field fixes added by the troops increase the weight of the vehicle, causing engine and transmission breakdowns. While US plants are turning out armor for 500 Humvees a month, the difficulty is that the Humvee is not an IFV. It is a very good upgraded jeep.

ˇ         The field commanders have asked for more Stryker vehicles, but Newsweek says Washington hasn't come to grips with the issue. Moreover,  Stryker is not sufficiently armored or maneuverable for street fighting: only the Bradley IFV can do the job. The US Army tacitly admits as much, because Strykers have been sent to Mosul, which is a relatively trouble-free area compared to other parts of the country.

ˇ         Newsweek tells us Rumsfeld has quietly authorized the airlift of 28 more M-1s to Iraq. That makes a hundred, enough for 6 companies assuming minimal maintenance reserves. Anyone in the Pentagon looked at the size of Iraq lately?

ˇ         What we don't understand is, where is the US Congress? Where is the US press? The military men cannot speak out regardless of what idiotic mistakes the Pentagon is making? Why is no one forcing Mr. Rumsfeld to face the reality that two more divisions are needed? Its been a year now since this became apparent, nothing is being done.

ˇ         An Indian reader tells us India was willing to send 17,000 troops to Iraq. Moreover, these men are not fresh recruits off the peacetime parade ground as are so many contingents from Europe and elsewhere. These are long service professionals  with more CI experience than any army in the world. These troops were not dispatched because,  New Delhi says, the request did not come through the UN and the troops cannot serve under the US flag. Our reader says that certainly was a major consideration. The real reason, he says, is that while Washington is willing to spend enormous amounts of effort wooing Pakistan and every little country in the world, it was unwilling to make any concessions or offers to India that would compensate for the inevitable downside of troops were dispatched. There is no reason India cannot send even 50,000 troops to Iraq, our reader says. That would mean Washington firmly telling Pakistan it is now merely an outlying province of the American empire, and telling India it is a valuable ally. Washington would rather commit hari kiri than do that. Where are the Pakistani troops in Iraq, if Pakistan is such a major ally? Pakistan has deployed 70,000 troops to hunt the Al Qaeda/Taliban? [Orbat.com comment: it has deployed 20,000; the other troops were permanently stationed in the area; further, once Afghanistan fell to an anti-Pakistan government, the troops would be needed anyway to protect the border.] Apparently the Indians are not impressed. They say who created the Taliban and made it possible for Al Qaeda to roost in Afghanistan? None other than Pakistan.

ˇ         [Orbat.com disclaimer We are not an "Indian" magazine. Aside from the editor, there are exactly 3 other Indians who work with Orbat.com and its affiliates. We have five Pakistanis working with us. India has 7 times Pakistan's population, so purely on a "balance basis", we should have 35 Indians. Also, 132 others who work with us are neither Indian nor Pakistani. We are not even based in India, but in the US. Further, the biggest Indian website has done its best to discourage members from working with us. Anyone is entitled to put their viewpoint across in Orbat.com. We are neither pro- nor anti- anyone. Yes, we are against Islamic fundamentalists, tyrants, and murderous rulers because so many of these people are working against - the United States.]

ˇ         AFP says the Libyan President, Mr. M. Gadaffi, is visiting Europe for the first time in 15 years and urging other to follow his example in giving up WMD.

ˇ         Its been difficult for us to keep tracks of who is coming or going in Iraq because the numbers are so tiny. Thailand joins the list of those who want to go home. Georgia will more than triple its forces in Iraq. Australia is willing to boost is 850 man force, but warns the deployment cannot be sustained for an extended period. UK first said to be planning more troops, but now says field commanders say no more are needed. Orbat.com comment The Rumsfeld Syndrome is spreading. We always believed the British were sensible about their wars. Hopefully this is a temporary infection. A British 3-brigade division is required, not the 1.5 brigade equivalent present.

 

1145 GMT April 27, 2004

[2nd Update]

ˇ         US forces fought a battle outside Najaf with insurgents who attacked them, 43 insurgents said killed, not US casualties reported as yet.

ˇ         Troops that are inside Najaf are from 2/37th Armor.

ˇ         US reemphasizes it has not intention of fighting inside Najaf; while leaving the way open for Al-Sadr to face justice at the hands of his own people and for allowing him to participate in the political process, US has also said else "we will grind him into the dirt". How much the open door is actual policy and how much is psychological action is impossible for us to say.

ˇ         Reports are that US troops who raided a building in Sadr City, Baghdad [2 US soldiers killed, several wounded] included WMD personnel.

0330 GMT April 27, 2004

Najaf: US Troops Move Knight to B4

ˇ         Agencies report that what to us appears to be a reinforced mechanized company moved into a base within Najaf city limits, to prevent the base from falling into insurgent hands after Spanish forces completed their withdrawal. Though US forces have the city surrounded, this is the first time in the recent crisis they have entered the city proper, and just 6 km from the shrines at that. The US announced its intent to ratchet up military, psychological, and economic measures against Al-Sadr. [Of course, the announcement is itself part of the pysch war.] Al-Sadr vows the usual sea of fire, suicide attacks, etc.

ˇ         Orbat.com opinion is that Al-Sadr's ability to organize suicide attacks is limited, as this is not an Iraqi tactic. We could speculate much on what the US expects the outcome of the move to be, but presently would like to confine ourselves to a few thoughts. We feel the US is testing the waters - as chess knights often do. If there is no major reaction from the clerics, the US will stay and wait for an opportunity to make the next jump. Otherwise the US will back off. This arrival of US troops, we suspect, is as much intended as a message to the clerics who have been trying to straddle both sides of the fence on the Al-Sadr issue. The message, we assume is: "Sort out Al-Sadr your way and claim the full credit. Else we'll sort him out ourselves, you may not like the outcome, and you'll lose a chance to play the cards we're handing you. Please understand at this time we have no information on the move, and it simply may be a defensive move to forestall Al-Sadr from occupying Spanish positions.

ˇ         Agency reports from Fallujah say that insurgents attacked a US position in Fallujah from a mosque. Eight insurgents and one marine were killed. [Note to ourselves: since there is an Army brigade in the area, we must be more careful when automatically translating the foreign press's references to soldiers as meaning marines.] No less an official than US Secretary of State Powell says diplomacy will be given a chance in Fallujah.

ˇ         CNN reports Jordanian security forces seize 20 tons of chemicals in Amman that was to be used within days to produce a toxic cloud that would be more deadly than 9/11. US officials are not so sure about the toxic cloud theory: we agree with them because dispersing chemicals and getting them on target is not exactly a low-tech venture. US officials say the chemicals could have been used to produce giant explosions. Three vehicles with plows to smash through security barriers were also found, lending credence to the US theory. Jordanian Intelligence HQ is said to be one of the targets. Two men appeared on Jordan TV to admit to the plot and its Al-Qaeda sponsors. They look remarkably fit, clean, and composed, so possibly they are a part of a Jordanian disinformation campaign, for example, they might be working on the "plot" for Jordanian Intelligence; or the pictures were taken before their interrogation began.

ˇ         Umm Qasar Suicide Boat Story From a reader who we presume is in the Hampton Roads, VA area, we learn the following [direct quote]:

Two sailors killed Saturday in Iraq were part of the Hampton Roads-based crew assigned to the USS Firebolt. [They] were killed when suicide attackers detonated explosive-laden boats near oil facilities in the Persian Gulf on Saturday.

In Saturday's attack, military officials say it was approximately 6:00pm (local Iraqi time) when the coalition naval personnel observed an unidentified dhow approaching the Iraqi Khawr Al Amaya Oil Terminal in the northern Arabian Gulf. In accordance with standard security procedures,
coalition Maritime Interception Operations forces approached the unidentified dhow for inspection. As the seven-member boarding team approached the dhow in their RHIB, the dhow exploded, killing the two sailors and tossing the rest of the boarding team - three sailors and two coast guardsmen - into the water....One of the coast guardsmen [later died].

Reminder to suicide bombers: this is not the ill-trained, demoralized, and badly armed Iraqi security forces you are dealing with. Have you not learned to avoid these silly stunts when you're opposed by first-class fighters? It would have been almost a miracle if any of you made it past the naval patrols. By the way, you did not "disable" the terminal even for a minute, leave alone the 24 hours some media credit you with. The terminal was shut down as a precaution against further attacks. With the all clear, it took some time to get everything back to normal functioning. True, you did take 3 American sailors with you. But this is not going to happen again: the patrol ships are simply going to sink  unidentified vessels first and ask questions later.

 

 

1115 GMT April 26, 2004

ˇ         CNN reports fresh fighting Fallujah but provides no details. US extends to Tuesday deadline for heavy weapons handover, saying it wants to give the political process another chance. Joint Iraqi-US patrols are to start Tuesday. From the CNN report, we learn there is at least one media person with the Marines. In that case, we are forced to assume that any media people with the Marines are under orders to avoid sending any details - and we have had very few for the last weeks. We wonder if any reader has seen mention of such a strict policy in other media sources? It is unlike the US media, at least, to not squawk when such tough reporting restrictions are imposed.

ˇ         AFP says that 3 US Navy sailors are now confirmed dead when they intercepted three suicide boats heading for oil facilities - presumably at Umm Qasar - and not two as was originally said. apparently the third sailor died of wounds. Our report that they tried to board one of the craft may have been incorrect: apparently the boat exploded and flipped the sailors' craft upside down.

ˇ         Oil exports resumed a day after a precautionary shut down following the failed attacks. Iraq is now exporting 1.6 million barrels a day; of which 90% goes through Umm Qasar and the remainder through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline.

ˇ         We read [and unfortunately do not recall the source] that the US made its first purchase of Libyan oil after lifting of sanctions; 2 million barrels were contracted for. Of course, the report should have read "direct purchase": once oil leaves Libya, it can be sent to any country and an equivalent amount diverted to the US. We are unsure if the US bothered actually checking where Libya outbound tankers went. US oil companies are in Libya negotiating new expansion of oil production.

ˇ         Orbat.com comment When speaking of US policy in the Arab world and Central Asia, often all of us see only the outward facade of events. Oil is the most powerful driving force - though hardly the sole force - behind US policy. We lack the expertise to discuss this subject. Nonetheless, we feel the US has been making a concentrated effort to diversify and increase its import sources, partly to keep oil prices from rising unreasonably, and partly because there will likely be a Saudi interruption when the US moves to sort out that country. Saudi is largely behind Islamic terror's money, indications are the internal situation is crumbling, and only massive repression is keeping the people down. Saudi's ruling elite appears unable to adjust to the demands of an egalitarian and democratic age. For now the Saudis have managed to contain the fundamentalist attacks inside the country. Clearly the deal between Saudi and the fundamentalists - we pay you to do your thing anywhere but here - has broken down; we have no clue why. In its turn, the US has managed to control information detailing Saudi's long association with terrorism, but there are leaks in the dyke. There may come a time when the American people feel that low oil prices are not worth the price of putting up with this odious regime. And in any case, whatever the people think, the US government is determined to clean up and democratize the place. The delay in Iraq has forced a delay in direct action against Syria and Iran, and then against Saudi Arabia. But please note otherwise the US plan is going well. The Libyan sea change is one success, the steady penetration of Central Asia another. The situation in Afghanistan improves every day - the US is even planning for reductions in its troop deployments there. Most important, the US has one giant foot firmly planted on the eastern Islamic world [Pakistan, Afghanistan, Central Asia], and the other giant foot planted firmly in the heart of the western Islamic world - Iraq. Such enormous changes in global geopolitics do not come about easily or quickly. But we should not miss the wood for its trees. For near 120 years the United States has been engaged in an inexorable expansion to reshape the world in accordance with American interests. A big reason why this drive will not fail - as did previous world empires - is that the principles America wants to apply to every country are the same principles all of Earth's peoples long for: Liberty, Equality, and the Pursuit of Happiness. 

0530 GMT April 25, 2004

To your editor's amazement - and he is not being ironic - five more readers wrote in and asked for no change in the format. That makes 8 in all, and your editor will respect their wishes. One reader has offered to help, since his interests include Russia and the FSU, he will be a major asset for all of us. Many, many interesting things happen in that part of the world that go unreported in the world media.

ˇ         AFP says Greek Cypriots voted 3-1 against the UN unification plan, which runs into 9000 pages. Earlier, the Turkish Cypriots had voted 2-1 in favor; the carrot the EU offered - permitting a unified Cyprus to join worked for the Turks but not for the Greeks. The EU speaks of rewarding Turkish Cyprus; the Greek Cypriots are quite aware what their intransigence is going cost them. They say they are not against reunification, only against this particular plan.

ˇ         Just as we were noting the absence of trouble in Baghdad's Sadr City, strong-hold of Al-Sadr, AFP says insurgent mortar fire probably aimed at a US position killed 14 Iraqis.

ˇ         Agencies say Coalition forces thwarted three suicide boat attacks against Iraqi oil terminals and offshore wells. One boat blew up when a US boarding party was attempting to take control, killing two US Navy sailors. A second boat also exploded; while no damage to facilities is reported, loading of crude had to be suspended.

ˇ         Other reports speak of Polish troops killing five insurgents without loss; it appears the Poles acted "right smartly" while repaying the insurgents for the trouble they have been giving Polish troops.

ˇ         Jang of Pakistan reports that four of the 5 wanted renegade Waziri tribals surrendered to GOC Pakistan XI Corps in a ceremony attended by thousands of Waziris. The four included the most wanted renegade. In a peculiarly Pathan twist, the four presented gifts to the corps commander and received warm hugs etc from him. In return for the surrenders, the Pakistan Government will release almost all detained Waziri fighters and will pump in additional development aid to the area. Pakistan offered amnesty to all foreign militants living in the area on the understanding they would not bears arms against Pakistan.

ˇ         Orbat.com comment We should be the first to acknowledge we never expected this outcome, and attribute our error to a deficient understanding of tribal customs. It is a typical tribal areas deal: no one loses face, and though it is not said by Jang, we are sure the deal includes good treatment and short sentences for the renegades. The difficulty arises when one looks at the deal from an American perspective. As nearly as we can reconstruct, the Pakistan Army embarked on a hunt for Osama and at some point came up against the renegade Waziris, who have been making a good living off Osama's money and criminal activities. Osama - if he was in the area, which has not been confirmed - slipped away and the Pakistanis grappled with the renegades. With Pakistan threatening collective punishment as per tribal rules, the Waziri elders formed a 2000 man posse, and went after the renegades. Talk rather than battle was the instrument, the posse was there to firmly show the renegades that they were not going to escape, and the tribal elders were not about to let five men be the cause of strict punishment inflicted on the tribe. The foreign militants were, we believe, involved with Osama, but marginally so because he was in their neck of the woods. They have been settled in Pakistan for 25-35 years and are Pakistanis in all but name. Because the Pakistan Army was gunning for everyone in the area, the foreigners fought in self-defense. The renegades fought because they were facing rough justice if caught, on account of having killed Pakistani troops. The deal as it stands actually cost neither side anything. Meanwhile, the Pakistan Government and its unwitting agents, the world media, have drawn the wool over everyone's eyes. We [and that very much includes Orbat.com] have been highly focused on the tribal showdown; in fact, it was only a sideshow, and the Pakistanis knew that. They allowed the media to focus on the showdown because that diverted attention from the real issue: Osama and at least one important subordinate got away. The US, of course, has been careful not to say anything about the situation and so has avoided being caught on the wrong foot. One of our readers, Rahul Narang, had predicted this Noh play would be enacted and he is to be congratulated for having the correct intuition. The Pakistanis are to be congratulated for having brilliantly played both sides off against each other - Osama and the US, and both are grateful for the alleged support they received from the Pakistan government. We suspect the Pakistan hands are grinding their teeth in frustration at being taken for a ride by Islamabad. None of this matters: Washington thinks it owes Pakistan big time for its "support".

ˇ         Jang of Pakistan reports that ISAF states in Afghanistan that Afghan militias will be disarmed by 2005, and the resistance to the move is only to be expected.

 

0230 GMT April 24, 2004

As our Email is running 3-0 against the proposed change, your editor will continue as before, and trust some higher authority to look after him.  In case any reader is wondering if 3-0 shouldn't read 3 to 1, please be assured the figure is correct. Three readers wrote to ask we not make any changes, no one wrote in to say the changes were acceptable.

ˇ         AFP reports Iraq Health Ministry officials as saying 271 have died in Fallujah; this compares to 600 estimated by the US, and over 1000 estimated by the Arab media.

ˇ         Meanwhile, Al-Sadr continues his bluster, threatening suicide attacks against US troops if Najaf is attacked. Since US has explicitly said it has no plans to enter Najaf, with one commander commenting US had all the time in the world, we can assume only that Al-Sadr is missing the attention he was previously getting.

ˇ         Christian Science Monitor says a coalition of 25 tribes has called for all armed groups in Najaf to disband, a clear request to Al-Sadr. The Badr Militia is all set to go after Al-Sadr, but Grand Ayatollah Sistani is using his authority to keep the Badr away from Al-Sadr's militia, fearing internecine violence. CSM says people of Najaf are upset with Al-Sadr because he is disturbing the peace, their lives, and their incomes.

ˇ         Orbat.com opinion We have never had any doubt that Al-Sadr is finished. Our only criticism was the obvious mistake of launching the anti Al-Sadr operation at the same time as the Fallujah operation. The CSM story, if anyone cares to read between the lines, is that the US political strategy is working perfectly, though we could quibble by saying the standoff is taking much longer than originally anticipated. By cordoning off Najaf, the US is stopping al-Sadr from leaving - though we are baffled as to why the US lets him go every Friday to Kufa. By refusing to enter Najaf, the US is forcing the local Shia leaders - no fans of Al-Sadr - to take care of Al-Sadr. By showing disinterest in any negotiated solution - if we are to take Al-Sadr's people at their word that negotiations failed because the US added a new set of conditions - and repeatedly telling Al-Sadr he will either be killed or captured no matter what he does, the US is bringing enormous psychological pressure on a man who has shown he does not think clearly. It appears the US is waiting for him to make a mistake that will lead to his own downfall.

ˇ         Interpretation of the News The Christian Science Monitor story makes clear that Al-Sadr's influence across the south has been eliminated: in one case, Karbala, a local Shia militia took care of the Al-Sadr fighters. Please note we have had no news from Sadr City in Baghdad for over a week. It would appear his fighters have left Baghdad and are hemmed in with him in Najaf. It would be nice if the media would put these things in perspective, but we do understand it is asking too much of them - particularly the American media - to say a US policy is working. Orbat.com is still ready to slam the politicals: our impression is the strategy being executed by the Army in Najaf and the Marines in Fallujah has been originated by the military, not by Mr. Bremer's office. If anyone knows differently, please do write in.

ˇ         Agencies say Senator John McCain believes another division is needed in Iraq on top of the decision to retain at least three, perhaps four brigade groups. Orbat.com comment We keep coming back to the figure of two more divisions. Mr. Rumsfeld, greatness lies in owning up to mistakes. Please stop spinning. Send in two more divisions. The American people are ready to pay the price of winning in Iraq. It is only your stubbornness that is holding up things. You do not have a right to mess up the situation and put American lives at risk because of your ego.

ˇ         US media reports the death of a well-known football star in action in Afghanistan. This gentleman walked away from a $3.6 million for three years contract offer after 9/11; along with his brother, also a well-knowing athlete, he joined the Army instead. But then, this man already marched to his own drummer: he had earlier refused a $9 million offer from another teams, preferring to stay loyal to his own despite much more money. In a country where a person's worth is judged solely by her/his bank balance, and  where the elite is unprepared to make any sacrifice for the country, it is refreshing that a young man was not ashamed to be patriotic. He served with the 75th Infantry Regiment, the US Rangers.

ˇ         Retired Army Colonel David Hackworth, writing in Military.com, provides details of the Iraq National Army fiasco at Fallujah. [We had earlier said that ICDC militia had failed the test of battle, but we were partly wrong in that an INA battalion also fell apart.] 2nd Battalion INA was convoyed by road to Fallujah with US advisors. It fell into an ambush in which 30 soldiers were killed, and disintegrated till the Marines showed up and took charge. The commanding officer and all company commanders were relieved of command, and 100 men were jailed for desertion and cowardice. When the battalion was reassembled at Tadji, its home base, it was told it was being deployed again, by air - to Fallujah.

ˇ         Col. Hackworth says: "the 695-man battalion had eight wounded, 24 combat desertions, 104 mutineers, 78 AWOLs and 170 on leave." Presumably that should read on "leave". Col. Hackworth makes the point 10 years are required to build an army, and the US civil administration, by insisting on an accelerated hand-over schedule to suit the President's reelection bid, is mucking up the creation of a proper army. With all respect to Col. Hackworth, and while in agreement with him on US assumptions, we disagree about the time needed. Six months would be adequate time to reform even 10 battalions - if the officers and senior NCOs had been recalled. An army built from scratch would certainly take 10 years to become functional.

 

 

1115 GMT April 23, 2004

[2nd Update]

Due to time and other constraints, the daily news update will be confined to reporting the War on Terror and other major conflicts. Opinion and detailed interpretation, where required, will be made in the Analysis magazine.

ˇ         CNN says US Marine commanders express increasing frustration and impatience with Fallujah ceasefire. Say insurgents continue to fire at US troops. Say weapons turn-in consists of junk and only a pick-up worth at that. Say insurgent hard core consists of 200 foreign fighters and "several hundred" locals inspired by imams; many are criminals and drug dealers.

ˇ         Agencies say a previously unknown "Yello-Red Army" terrorist group. apparently in Thailand, warns it will attack civilian targets in 8 countries that are supporting, or plan to support [Pakistan], US intervention in Iraq.

ˇ         Jang of Pakistan says Pakistan prepared to contribute troops to provide security for UN operations in Iraq if contingent is under UN command. Earlier, India which was assembling a division [17,000 troops] for Iraq reversed course and said it would send troops only for a UN operation.

ˇ         AP reports US Air Force as saying 75% of its personnel are now combat experienced, the highest since World War 2, and has defined a new phase of operations, called Post-Combat Operations. The doctrine has been evolving since the mid-1990s and the Balkan wars. It involves precise and instant coordination between all US airpower assets, so that airpower can be put over a target within seconds of the request. For example, Navy F-14s have supported Marine operations in Fallujah.

ˇ         AP reports US Air Force says its 2000-lb smart bombs are hitting within their 12 feet length, and it plans to have a bombing capability that will permit dropping of 80 X 500-lb bombs, each hitting within 4 feet of the aim point.

ˇ         Basra anti-UK demonstrations and allegations UK was behind car-bomb attacks come from Al-Sadr militia.

0230 GMT April 23, 2004

Your editor may have to terminate this section which, alas, is the most popular part of the site. Of late he has been getting increasingly involved while reporting the news. There is just so much stupidity one can bear. This is not good. Your editor has remained fair in reporting the news, but either he keeps his opinions to himself, and reports just the facts, Ma'am, or he ditches this section.

ˇ         Washington Post reports US to rehire 11,000 teachers fired because of Baath membership, and is looking at other group of technicians and officials to recall. This is part of a drive to give the newly disenfranchised Sunnis a stake in the new Iraq, as well as to assist the faster rebuilding of the country. US now saying that after all, Baath membership was essential to et any sort of government job and most of the professional class were not really Baath supporters.

ˇ         Orbat.com's comment We are rendered speechless by the brilliance of Mr. Bremer. Anyone with a passing knowledge of Iraq knew the situation regarding the Baath party. He was told about it. That did not stop him from firing everyone, thus helping to fuel the various insurgencies and criminal activities taking place today. Now he has reversed himself, with the US Government getting its knickers into a twist saying there is no reversal. Mr. Bremer, supposing senior military officers had shown even some of the incompetence you have displayed. We wonder, had you the authority, what you would have done to them.

ˇ         US also recalls a first batch of generals: six are back at work, and more flag rank officers are to follow. Some genius figured out that - to paraphrase a CNN source - generals are not made after a few weeks training. Now how long did it take the geniuses in Washington and Baghdad to figure that out?

ˇ         Here is a true story for our readers. As the invasion of Iraq drew nearer, 100 Arabic speaking US bureaucrats, officials, and the like with experience of the region were assembled in Kuwait, ready to go in after the troops. Thanks to Mr. Rumsfeld and others, who unilaterally decided they did not want the purity of their concepts ruined by people who actually knew something about Iraq, the hundred never went to Iraq. They were sent back to the US. The reason the American people grew disillusioned about Vietnam was not because of the casualties, horrendous as they were.

ˇ         The military families knew with what casual incompetence the military leaders were, in effect, sending their men to their deaths. Military families are loyal, and little was said. The disillusionment grew because American leaders lied, and lied, and lied to cover their mistakes. American leaders today must be thanking their lucky stars that the enemy is so ineffectual, and that the US media has so effectively castrated itself, that they have escaped true scrutiny for their egregious errors in Iraq. These are not honest errors, part of the healthy process of learning from mistakes: that is how leaders are made. These are errors of arrogance, because huge parts of the US national security establishment had learned from past mistakes and knew what needed to be done in Iraq: there is almost no turn of the road that was not accurately predicted and warned against before the US went in. The US military, its leaders and its fighting men, are once again saving their worthless civilian leaders by expending their blood. Do the people who messed up in Iraq have a word of remorse, a word of apology, any indication they accept their responsibility? No. They don't have to apologize, because they didn't make any mistakes. They planned all along to dismantle the Iraqi military and bureaucratic steel frame, gather Iraq into chaos, and then hire back the people they had fired. Mere mortals such as ourselves can never hope to understand the staggering genius of our rulers.

ˇ         Reuters reports that the good citizens of Basra show their appreciation for their liberation by British soldiers, and the year of decent governance they have enjoyed, by stoning British troops: the foreigners, they said, are responsible for the attacks because they failed to provide security. Hmmm. We do all agree on how effective Saddam was at providing security: kill any dissenter that speaks one word, make torture and barbaric execution the punishment for the smallest crime, and you have security.

ˇ         Some of the good people of Basra have gone one step further: the British troops are responsible because THEY planned and helped implement the five car bomb attacks.

ˇ         The Brits are so devilishly clever that Orbat.com, at least, is completely unable to fathom the point of the Brits themselves becoming terrorists. Your editor once met a personable American running for President,  Mr. Lyndon LaRouche, and a lady who he thought said she was Mrs. LaRouche [your editor is half deaf]. She ignored the other guests and explained to your editor in great detail that the Queen of England actually ran America, and Venetian bankers ran the Queen of England. Doubtless someone akin to the Venetian bankers also runs the UK MOD who runs Osama Bin Ladan and various assorted Islamic terrorist groups. It is impossible for persons of such low IQ as your editor to understand these things. He cravenly apologies for his stupidity.

ˇ         Jang of Pakistan reports the Pakistan Army says the campaign against foreign terrorists is over. The locals have given their word they will police the area themselves. The Pakistan Army can now go home. And yet some people  attack your editor because he once mistakenly said in an Orbat.com editorial that no proof exists that the Easter Bunny exists!

ˇ         Meanwhile, terrorists and Saudi security forces have been having a free for all in Riyadh. We are not following the story because, in all frankness, we don't feel a thing when we learn that the terrorists the Saudis paid to go away and kill foreigners have broken their word and are killing Saudis. Can no one anymore be trusted to keep a promise?

ˇ         News of the Absurd A few days ago, NPR reported that a lawyer for the Guantanamo Bay detainees had argued before a judge that the US had a perpetual lease on the naval base and as such had control of the base, and as such, US law applied. No, no, no, said the Government lawyer. The base is part of Cuba. Cuba has control. If Mr. Castro does not listen to NPR, we at Orbat.com are happy to send him a message that he controls Guantanamo. [Personally, we don't care about the detainees. You're captured on a battlefield with a gun in your hand or in the company of fighters, you are a fighter or you are  aiding and abetting the enemy. The Americans are much too kind. Most armies would simply have shot the men right then and there, rather than waste food on them.]

0230 GMT April 22. 2004

ˇ         AFP says suicide bombers hit Basra police stations, killing 68 including 20 school children passing by. Though Iraqi official sources were quick to claim an Al-Qaeda connection, the UK commander on the scene says the only thing known for sure is the bombers are not from the city and may not be from Iraq.

ˇ         CNN says a 4-hour firefight between 60+ Iraqi insurgents and Marines in Fallujah left 36 insurgents dead and 3 Marines wounded. Video shot on scene shows fierce action. Close air support was also used. [Orbat.com note: the Marines have relatively small numbers of tanks and medium artillery because of the need to keep their formations as mobile as possible, and have traditionally relied very extensively on CAS to make up for the lack of heavy firepower.] US military officials say that if the incident was an isolated one, they will continue with the ceasefire. If, however, it represents a deliberate breaking of the ceasefire, the US will resume offensive operations.

ˇ         Our US Deployments Iraq section is in some disarray because of the overall problems we've been having at Orbat.com - the software needed to our kind of operation has not been installed in a timely manner, but the expansion continues unabatedly: we cannot hold up people eager to start work just because we're having problems. So sections your editor looks after personally, such as America Goes to War, have fallen behind. Nonetheless, it appears as if 1st Brigade, 1st Armored Division is operating in support of I MEF. Anyone with information, and the inclination to keep the US deployments section in order, kindly contact the editor.

ˇ         CENTCOM says it has been using Predator UAVs armed with Hellfire missiles against insurgents, particularly around Balad. The good thing about the Iraq mess is that it will provide the explosive assist needed to rapidly develop/deploy a whole lot of new robot warfighting  technologies. Progress has been chugging along at peace speed. For example, using armed UAVs to patrol highways reduces the need for protecting convoys: send a couple of Predators ahead of the convoy to "sweep" the highway, and the chance of being caught in a surprise ambush is reduced.

ˇ         Jang of Pakistan says the Pakistan Army has agreed to give the Waziri militia hunting renegade tribesmen and foreigners in its territory the 10 more days the Waziris had requested before resuming operations.

0230 GMT April 21, 2004

ˇ         Despite optimistic reports in the media, many based on statements by Iraqi negotiators, the US Defense Secretary and Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, are clear military action will be needed in Fallujah. They have warned that the US will not stand-off indefinitely, and indications are Marine commanders are urging resumption of the offensive. If it is resumed, it is likely to aim for a rapid resolution. This news may appear at odds with other reports saying Iraqi security forces are back on the street, the US has relaxed the curfew to 9 PM, and is allowing up to 50 families a day back into the city. Nonetheless, it is not the ordinary residents of Fallujah who have a say in matters; there is no indication insurgents are willing to lay down their heavy weapons.

ˇ         Further, we have reason to believe that the Marines, while allowing retention of personal weapons like AKs, will not tolerate anyone carrying them in the street. We wish we had better information, but from odds and ends that have reached us, we believe a major factor in the decision of the insurgents to accept the ceasefire was their losses to Marine snipers. These have been infiltrating positions ahead of the front-line, and shooting anyone they see with a rifle in hand. Sometimes they will lie in ambush for 1-2 days without disclosing their positions. We do know that during curfew hours, no one is allowed to leave their house, and even sticking a head outside can result in a warning shot. If a man is seen armed, on the street or in his compound, he is shot immediately. Since the blockading Marines are not allowing people to leave their homes to bury the dead, there is no real indication of how many people have been killed in Fallujah, and the Marines are not talking. These are harsh tactics, but result in far fewer civilian deaths. We welcome letters from persons informed on the sniper issue.

ˇ         AFP says eight insurgents were killed by the Marines in Fallujah after they were spotted moving around with rifles and RPGs.

ˇ         Newsweek publishes a detailed and horrifying account of the corruption surrounding the Iraq oil-for-food program. It names several prominent UN diplomats, Mr. Kofi Annan's son, and important French officials and other with ties to the French President, as having accepted hundreds of millions of dollars in bribes, possibly higher than that, from Saddam. Newsweek says Russia and France are blocking any real enquiry into the scandal, and alleges that it was concern for their flow of bribes that kept the French attacking the US intention to invade Iraq. Nonetheless, it notes that Mr. Anan has agreed to an enquiry, speculates this will go nowhere, and adds that the US Congress has begun hearings with no punches pulled. If these charges are proved, the UN will lose tremendous credibility, to say nothing of France.

ˇ         ABC News gives further details: $5 billion is alleged to have accepted as bribes by 270 or more named foreign individuals, who were apparently identified as early as January by the Iraqi media, using official records. The head of the program is one of the accused officials. The individuals include religious leaders, and some are US citizens.

ˇ          Jang of Pakistan reports that the Waziri militia send to hunt down five renegade Waziri leaders and foreign insurgents have talked to the most wanted person. They asked him to surrender and save the people from further trouble. He asked for three days to consult with his comrades. The militia continues to occupy its positions, but has neither killed nor captured any militant. The Pakistan Army let the Tuesday deadline pass without incident to give the Waziri leaders as much leeway as possible for negotiations.

ˇ         Haaretz of Israel says Mordechai Vanunu, the Israeli nuclear technician who had to serve an 18 year sentence without parole, is freed today and has already been told he cannot leave the country. The newspaper says  he has threatened to reveal more secrets. Your editor recalls - without details of significance, as he was not interested in the matter - that at the time of Vanunu's arrest, there were rumors that he had been deliberately set up to "confirm" Israel's nuclear arsenal, and to exaggerate its strength, as a deterrent to Israel's enemies. Of course, everything in the Mideast is one big conspiracy. Nonetheless, we wonder why Mr. Vanunu has been allowed to send ahead several boxes of his notes written while in prison: the boxes were marked "Examined", but why let him take anything by the clothes he was wearing. It seems almost like he is being set up again - we are warned he will likely release more secrets, has a prodigious memory, and has accumulated a vast quantity of notes in prison - which he has been allowed to take home after saying he will make more exposes. We refuse to believe the Israelis are so stupid; as such the only explanation is he is once again being made a patsy.

 

 

1600 GMT April 20, 2004

ˇ         CNN reports Falluja and Najaf calm bar occasional firing. Fallujah deal has been made: insurgents will hand over heavy weapons, the killers of the 4 contractors will be found and arrested by the Iraqis themselves, joint US-Iraqi patrols will take place with the Marines gradually leaving more of the work to Iraqis.

ˇ         The big question everyone is asking is that can the Iraqis enforce these conditions? With many foreign fighters in the city not owing anything to the people of Fallujah, these groups may well reject the ceasefire.

ˇ         Washington Post and other polls say that Fallujah and Al-Sadr have pushed up support for President Bush, who had been losing ground versus Democratic challenger John Kerry, and Mr. Bush now has a lead over Mr. Kerry. Support for sending more troops is rising, and fewer people want to get out of Iraq.

ˇ         Orbat.com comment Does the above show the Vietnam syndrome is over? Yes and no. Iraq is not Vietnam, so we are comparing apples and oranges. In 1968 in Vietnam the US was running 500 killed a week, young men were being drafted for the war, and few Americans could understand why their country was in Vietnam in the first place. And the US population was about 60% of what it is today, so the casualty toll represented a much higher fraction of the population. In Iraq, there are 3 issues which American grasp with utmost clarity: oil, religion, and democracy. The polls show people are angry about the WMD claim. Had they been told from the start it was about the above three issues, we, at least, believe a strong majority of Americans would have supported not just this war, but also war against Syria, Iran and - yes, even DPRK. And, of course, Libya has been knocked out of the fight against fundamentalism without a shot. So we really cannot, and should not, talk about the end or otherwise of the Vietnam syndrome.

ˇ         Agencies say 18 mortar rounds landed in a Baghdad confinement facility killing at least 21 Iraqis and wounding 100. [Orbat.com request to media: can you kindly stop referring to mortar rounds as 'mortars'? A mortar is the weapon itself, consisting of a tube, sights, and a base. The ammunition used to be called a mortar bomb, and we don't recall when that term was dropped, but certainly as of the 1960s, the ammunition became a mortar round. Mortars are a wonderful invention [if you happen to be the one attacking with them]: simple, relatively light, high angle of fire, immediately available to the company or battalion commander. The problem is, the darn things can fire off a line of ammunition in 20 minutes. The two-tube mortar section with C Company, 13th Kumaon Regiment at its famous last stand at Rezeng La, 1962 Sino-Indian War, fired off all except 6-7 rounds of its stock of 1006 rounds before the men were  killed. The overall battle lasted perhaps 4-6 hours, and the main battle 2 hours; four hours were in darkness or heavy fog, so presumably [the Indian positions were connected only by landlines, which were cut very quickly] the bulk of those rounds were fired in a very short time. The loader for one mortar was cut down preparing to fire  almost the very last of the rounds, and his body was found still holding the round. Sorry for the digression - nothing to do with the War on Terror, but the comments may help people understand how things work.

ˇ         From Debka:

A tall barrier has been constructed around much of Fallujah to blockade city against movement of insurgents and war equipment and enable reduction of US siege force. The northern and southern berms of 2.5 miles each are 5 feet high to provide US troops cover from enemy fire in flat terrain.

Time running out for Fallujah truce talks. DEBKAfile reports: US command discovers 40 separate guerrilla outfits fighting in Iraq, many of them in Fallujah. Main negotiations with ex-Special Republic Guards fighters, but progress hampered by refusal of Arab and al Qaeda fighters coming in from Syria and Iran to surrender weapons.

1630 GMT April 16, 2004

[3rd Update]

ˇ         AFP, CNN report that meetings are in progress at a Marine base between US, Iraqi leaders, and local authorities on making the Fallujah cease-fire permanent. The US emphasizes the urgency of agreement, saying tens of thousands of innocent people are bottled-up in the city. The usual skirmishing continues, but this is mainly outside Fallujah and in the surrounding villages.

ˇ         AFP reports that the Iran delegation to Najaf has said meeting Al-Sadr is not part of their mandate. They are to speak with the highest Shia religious body and that is all.

ˇ         Meanwhile, Al-Sadr says no compromise is possible with the US; senior Shia clerics warn Coalition forces not to enter Najaf or Karbala; one says violence must be the last resort. An Iraqi source says that perhaps Al-Sadr is upset he will have no say in the post-June 30th government.

ˇ         Orbat.com comment What the source is implying that to defuse the situation US should allow Al-Sadr a say, and the Shia leaders will take care of him later. This is Standard Operation Procedure for a society that is actually a confederation of tribes. Al-Sadr is not wanted by the Shia leaders, but at the same time, they cannot just hand him over to the Americans. They are in effect asking the US to help them resolve the conflict peacefully. From the US viewpoint, however, this is not a deal they will like. They have considerable experience of tribal politics thanks to Afghanistan and Iraq, and know well that frequently these deals do not work, and that in tribal society what the locals think is a lie is quite different from what the Americans think is a lie.

1200 GMT April 16, 2004

[2nd Update]

ˇ         AFP says two of the 3 released Japanese hostages say they want to stay on in Iraq to continue their humanitarian work, causing exasperation and anger in government circles. CNN says the hostages plan to fly back home from Dubai, but since the report says nothing about two wanting to stay back, we assume the CNN report was made before the AFP one.

ˇ         Meanwhile, CNN and others say US government has ordered out of Saudi Arabia all non-essential diplomatic staff and strongly advised US citizens to leave; US says it has information indicating a threat.

ˇ         Asia Times says that US and Pakistan [the latter reluctantly] are planning on moving against the Shawal area, possibly one of the best hiding places in the world. Shawal lies mainly in Afghanistan, but part of it lies inside Pakistan and US has realized it cannot search the area effectively unless the Durand Line is crossed. Earlier it was assumed Pakistan Army would form the hammer to drive insurgents into Afghanistan, where the US anvil is waiting. The Pakistan Army, however, was not able to cope with even the Wana operation, and US feels it has no choice. US will drops groups of SF troops into the Shawal and they will stay as long as needed to track down militants in the area. Asia Times says the Shawal consists of deep valleys and tall grass, movement is very difficult. The report appears to be written from Pakistan relying on sources. [Report forwarded to us by Mandeep Bajwa.] Your editor will shortly give his opinion on the authenticity of the report.

0430 GMT April 16, 2004

Iraq Update

ˇ         Agencies say Iranian First Secretary killed in Baghdad; Iran blames US for not providing security, official says he is waiting instructions whether to continue his mission or to return. [Dear Iranian leadership: I am sure the US would be very happy for you to come and keep security in Iraq. We know how you maintain security in your country, and have to admit you are very good at it.]

ˇ         Al-Sadr spokesman says US suddenly imposes new condition, implying talks are derailed.

ˇ         Fighting in Fallujah, US fires on mosque being used by snipers; US says insurgents are using mosques to store arms and ambulances to move the arms around. One US officer says he suspects insurgents are digging tunnels to move around safely.

ˇ         CNN says US 1st Armored Division and 2nd Armored Cavalry Regiment to be extended in Iraq by 120 days - 90 days in combat zone and 30 days to ship home. This will temporarily add 20,000 troops.

ˇ         AFP says Italian hostage was defiant when he realized he was to be executed, and tried to remove the hood from his face - we assume to confront the killer. Three Japanese released, but fate of two more unknown.

ˇ         AFP, US sources say there is evidence anti-US Shias, Sunnis, and foreigners have gotten together in loose coalition to kidnap civilians.

ˇ         Washington Post says no traffic has been allowed in or out of Green Zone in Baghdad since the Al-Sadr uprising.

 

1200 GMT April 15, 2004

[2nd Update]

ˇ         CNN reports fighting in Fallujah with US troops making raids and gunships in action, but there is no general breakdown in the ceasefire. Meanwhile, Marines battle insurgents at Habbiniyah [Anbar Province] bomb-making factory, 16 insurgents dead. Wednesday's US toll includes 4 Marines killed in Anbar Province, which includes Fallujah, but these men died elsewhere. There have been a lot of reports about Marine KIA not related to Fallujah; aside from fighting along the Abu Gharib [Baghdad] - Fallujah road we have no clue as to where action may be taking place resulting in these substantial casualties.

ˇ         US says it will not negotiate with Al-Sadr. The Iranian delegation was requested by UK, US says it did not ask for the intervention.

0330 GMT April 15, 2004

ˇ         AFP reports an Iranian delegation is in Baghdad, some sources say at the request of the British, to negotiate with Al-Sadr. The delegation says it has come only to assess the situation.

ˇ         Fallujah ceasefire barely holding, extended 48 hours.

ˇ         Kidnappers kill one of 4 captive Italians; two more Japanese abducted.

ˇ         NPR reports UN special envoy says Fallujah offensive unacceptable. We'd have been happier if he had stated if he finds foreign and Sunni insurgents inside Fallujah acceptable. Envoy puts forward a different plan: dissolution  of the Iraq governing council, which he - and many sources at many times - have said the Council lacks credibility and is not acceptable to most in Iraq; it should be replaced with an interim government advised by a council of delegates from every region until proper elections can be held.

ˇ         Jang of Pakistan quoting an unidentified news agency - probably AFP - says Al-Sadr has dropped all conditions and has gone to his father's house in East Najaf [this would be his late father's house]. we do not know the geography of Najaf and so cannot say if this takes him away from the mosques he has been sheltering in. Jang speaks of the 3rd Brigade Combat Team and Spanish and Polish troops had set up an "exclusion zone" around Najaf, and reconnaissance patrols were conducting probes. No further details.

ˇ         AFP reports ANC headed for landslide victory in South Africa, perhaps even a 2/3rds majority, and perhaps even gaining control of the two provinces not already under its political sway. This is South Africa's third election since the end of apartheid.

ˇ         Times of India reports the Indian military's "Cold Start" doctrine has been presented before a senior officers conference for discussion. The strategy requires 8 integrated battle groups consisting of ground, air, and sea elements that will strike rapidly into Pakistan before the international community intervenes, and the strikes will be calibrated to avoid a Pakistan nuclear response.

ˇ         Orbat.com notes this is a losing strategy from the start. There is no such thing as a "Cold Start" unless troops are to be deployed right on the border and kept on the alert. This is hardly going to increase Pakistan's confidence. Its all-too-obvious response is going to be a doctrine that envisages any war will go nuclear from the start, so there will be no question of calibration: India will have to risk calling Pakistan's bluff from the instant Indian troops cross the frontier. Moreover, the Cold Start theory raises the risks of a Pakistani first strike on the "Use 'Em or Lose 'Em" principal. Further, aside from diplomatic pressure no country has ever intervened against India; it was not diplomatic pressure that aborted Indian's twice-planned offensives for 2002; and what makes India think it can resist diplomatic pressure once it enters Pakistan? It takes six hours to call the UN Security Council into emergency meeting and for just about every major power to telephone Delhi. The truth of the matter is neither the government, nor the military, nor the people of India are prepared to pay the price of attacking Pakistan, especially when the war will either have to be final, or India will face a political debacle even if it wins quick military victory.

 

1930 GMT April 14, 2004

[3rd Update]

100 Insurgents Killed Near Fallujah, 4 Marines KIA

ˇ         MSNBC answers a question we'd puzzled over these last few days: we sensed there was heavy fighting between Fallujah and Abu Gharib, but no news was coming out. MSNBC says on Monday and Tuesday the Marines were engaged in heavy fighting at Karma, a village outside Fallujah, among palm groves and canals; the action was hot enough that wounded Marines were returned to the fight after treatment.  The Marines lost 2 men on Monday and again on Tuesday.

ˇ         Agencies say in Fallujah the truce is close to breaking down, US officials say. US commander accuses insurgents of maneuvering their positions and continuing to fire at the Marines. At various times two gunships were called in; F-15s made a strike, possibly using only  cannon; and an AC-130 was in action to destroy a row of houses from where the Marines had continuously been receiving fire since the ceasefire was declared.  From their statements, it is clear US commanders are anxious to get back to their offensive.

ˇ         CNN report backs AFP story on Al-Sadr; adds he says he will drop his conditions if the senior Shia leadership tells him to [an obvious face-saving devices]; his trial can take place only when all foreign troops are withdrawn. [Presumably Iranian and Arab fighters are not foreigners.]

1830 GMT April 14, 2004

[2nd Update]

Possible Resolution to Al-Sadr Crisis?

ˇ         AFP reports Al-Sadr has offered to disarm his militia and turn it into a political/social movement. He has offered to stand trial, but only when Iraq has a legitimate and democratic government in Iraq. We find his sudden conversion to peaceful action and democracy touching, and suspect the US intent, openly avowed, to capture or kill him had some slight effect. Because he is a rash young man who nonetheless understands he cannot fight the Americans, in our opinion the failure of the grand ayatollahs to back him was probably the main cause for his change of heart. His political acumen is about the same level as his military sense: just about zero. Why did he assume the grand ayatollahs would back him when (1) he has been rudely pulling their beards after the fall of Baghdad, and (2) Shia leaders see their best chance of taking over Iraq lies in getting the Americans out ASAP. The clerics, at least, understand that the best way of sending the Americans home is to play along with American rules for the time being.

ˇ         Washington Post identifies elements of 1st Armored, 2nd Infantry, and 25th Infantry Divisions at Najaf. The brigades from the infantry division are Stryker units and rotated into Iraq to replace 4th Mechanized Division and a brigade of 82nd Airborne Division.

0400 GMT April 14, 2004

Contradictory Reports About Fallujah

ˇ         AFP reports US tanks were in action in Fallujah around  late afternoon Iraq time yesterday, and a hospital reports 9 Iraqi dead and many wounded. Nonetheless, an Iraq official involved in the negotiations says that the true was holding and was supposed to have been extended into the late night, Tuesday/Wednesday.

ˇ         A Bulgarian officer says US has sent additional troops to Najaf. Orbat.com knows only of one brigade that has arrived, which would seem too small a force for the impending offensive; reinforcements are logical. An intriguing report says US troops were forcing militia fighters back into Najaf, but we remain unclear on this subject.

ˇ         CNN, agencies report Secretary Rumsfeld has approved retention of 20,000 troops due to rotate out of Iraq. As nearly as we can make out - please do not consider this as reliable - the troops involved two brigades from 1st Armored Divisions, a brigade from 82nd Airborne Division, and a brigade or more from 4th Mechanized Division. Our suspicion is that the two additional brigades requested for Iraq are additional to the stop-rotation troops, because we keep hearing rumors in the wind that Iraq commanders estimate an additional two divisions are required to deal with current emergency and immediate aftermath.

ˇ         Bodies of 4 civilian contractors missing in convoy attack around Abu Gharib found after a local leads Americans to a shallow grave. Agencies say the bodies are mutilated, but MSNBC quotes officials as saying they are unable to tell at this time if the mutilation was done on purpose, or it was a consequence of the explosion of a tanker truck.

ˇ         Combined report by AP and Jang of Pakistan says Pakistan Army has been moving troops into the Shawal area, north of Wana, as a deadline approaches for handover of all foreign militants. Orbat.com is under the impression the deadline is April 20. Correspondents have been banned from the tribal areas. but a delegation of Shawal elders trekked 8 hours to talk to an AP correspondent. They say they are not sheltering foreigners, and would not expose their people to mass punishment just to help a few fighters. They appeared desperate that the Pakistan Army believe them. The latter, however, has become cynical about tribal assurances.

ˇ         In yet another anti-climax, it is now said by Pakistan authorities that no Al-Qaida are among the militants captured during the Wana operation; such foreigners as have been captured are survivors [we assume from the Afghan War] who settled in the area. Orbat.com recalls locals saying precisely that to news correspondents during the Wana operations: the men have married locally and are raising their families.  So we are left with a puzzle: what was the Wana operation all about, then?

2145 GMT April 13, 2004

[3rd Update]

ˇ         US says it is hunting a person near Falluja who it believes to be Al-Qaeda leader Dr. Zarqawi in a "robust" manner. One Marine killed outside Fallujah; CH-53 brought down between Abu Gharib and Fallujah; crew safe, but 3 rescuers wounded.

ˇ         French cameraman abducted, proving again the insurgents have no clue to what they are about. France did its best to thwart the US invasion.

ˇ         Russia pulling out 375 civilian workers, other countries will also. If stalling development is an insurgent aim, they are succeeding.

ˇ         Al-Sadr aide arrested earlier today released after brief detention.

1500 GMT April 13, 2004

[3rd Update]

ˇ         CNN says 2500 US troops at/enroute to Najaf and are sealing exits, not allowing militiamen to leave. US commander on scene says he is aware a single shot fired by his men could mean trouble, as the city is akin to the Vatican.

1200 GMT April 13, 2004

[2nd Update]

ˇ         CNN, AFP report Al-Sadr's top aide in Baghdad has been arrested as he attended a meeting. Aide had time to use cell phone to inform AFP has was under arrest.

ˇ         US commanders praise Iraq security forces that have been fighting alongside Coalition troops, but admit frank disappointment at the performance/non-performance of some units. Iraq Army battalion refused to proceed to Fallujah [this is the origin of the confused reports that an Iraq Army battalion in Fallujah had refused to fight], one ICDC battalion at Fallujah refused to fight, and some men from an ICDC battalion elsewhere in the country defected to Al-Sadr.

ˇ         US will start recalling senior Iraqi officers after vetting by top commanders. US had earlier permitted reengagement of field grade officers [Lieutenant Colonel and lower] but this has not been sufficient.

ˇ         CNN report makes clear to us that Al-Sadr's pull back in Karbala, Kufa, and Najaf was under US demand and as an attempt to deflect impending US action.

ˇ         CNN says Grand Ayatollah Sistani's son and son's of two other Grand Ayatollah met with Al-Sadr and told him the clerics will not accept military action against him in Najaf.

ˇ         An 80 vehicle convoy enroute from Baghdad to Najaf was attacked, one US soldier killed.

ˇ         CNN reports US says hundreds of Iraq militants have been killed in Baghdad, mostly around Abu Gharib. This confirms our earlier belief that the US is fighting to clear the insurgents from the road to Fallujah. We suspect that no news has come from there because media fears for its own safety, and we personally see no cowardice in that. US will facilitate/protect only embedded journalists, and it's likely none are present in the area or have not been permitted to enter. All the rest have to fend for themselves; given what we hear about Abu Gharib we can understand if media is reluctant to take the risk.

ˇ         No news at all from Fallujah, which seems odd. Only rehash of previous reports.

0400 GMT April 13, 2004

US Prepares Offensive Against Al-Sadr

ˇ         AFP reports the US is preparing an offensive against Al-Sadr, and quotes the commander, US CENTCOM as saying the mission of the troops being maneuvered into position in the Najaf area is to capture or kill Al-Sadr.

ˇ         Fallujah situation remains confused, as usual. No material change since last night.

ˇ         Two convoys were attacked yesterday, not one as we had reported. One convoy was south of Baghdad and one was to the west.

ˇ         Iraqi clerics deliver a fatwa against civilian kidnappings; 11 Russian energy workers and 3 Czech journalists are among latest abducted. Again, we wonder what the kidnappers' aims are because Russia has been adamantly opposed to the US-led intervention in Iraq.

ˇ         We have seen a Pravda report dated April 9 that a Japanese SF unit has been sent to Iraq to rescue the three Japanese hostages. No details.

ˇ         US commanders have expressed frank disappointment at the unwillingness of several Iraqi security to fight effectively in the recent crisis. Pravda quotes the UK Daily Telegraph as reporting Ukrainian troops withdrew from Kut despite orders to hold their positions after they came under attack from Al-Sadr militia. They left Coalition  civilian administrators unprotected. Pravda says Ukraine defense ministry has no comments on the Telegraph story.

ˇ         We return after many days to South Waziristan in Pakistan. Jang of Pakistan reports that tribal elders negotiated unsuccessfully over the weekend for the renegades to hand over the killers of two government officers, five most wanted men, and the expulsion of all foreigners in the region. The renegades said no to all demands, but both sides agreed to meet again.

ˇ         AFP reports the rebel LTTE faction has dissolved itself after failing to get help from Sri Lankan security forces in stopping the advance of the LTTE. The latter decided it had had enough of the breakaway faction, headed by a leader called Karuna, and had begun an offensive against the breakaway faction. After one sharp fight, the breakaway group pulled in to improve its defensive posture, and now we have the news above.  No news on Karuna's whereabouts.

ˇ         AFP reports a curious incident from Gardez, Afghanistan. The US ambassador was inaugurating a new courthouse, when two UAVs assigned for surveillance of the area crashed into the ground some kilometers away. No further details.

2100 GMT April 12, 2004

[3rd Update]

Iraq Composite from AFP, BBC, CNN

ˇ         The Fallujah ceasefire was holding at least as of nightfall, Iraq time. Shooting has died down almost completely. US offers a partial withdrawal as a goodwill gesture to help Iraqi negotiators, but US spokesperson says he has not heard of any such offer. The director of an Fallujah hospital says most of the 650 killed are civilians; US disputes that and says when the Iraq Health Ministry can get into the town it will find 95% of the dead are men of fighting age.

ˇ         Another US convoy has been attacked near Baghdad; US says it is increasing road security. This convoy was carrying M-113 APCs on flatbed trucks, at least one tanker truck was destroyed.

ˇ         BBC says US commanders in Iraq ask for two more brigades.

ˇ         Hostage situation remains unclear. Three Japanese still not released. Seven Chinese released, China says it has no clue as to what 7 peasants/fishermen from Fujian Province are doing in China. Since China opposes the US intervention, it is assumed possible the kidnappers thought they were taking Japanese or Korean citizens.

ˇ         In South, Iraq police return to the streets in Najaf, Karbala, Kufa after Al-Sadar militia vacates police stations and government buildings. US hands over its demands to negotiators, says militia must disarm; Al-Sadr representative rejects the demand. Oddly, there is no demand for Al-Sadr to surrender.

ˇ         The 1.5 million pilgrims visiting Karbala have left.

1500 GMT April 12, 2004

[2nd Update]

ˇ         AFP, CNN report Fallujah ceasefire extended till tonight. US continues moving troops into position and maneuvering for better positions where possible: Iraqi negotiators say this probably is what is causing the insurgents to open fire.

ˇ         AFP reports that in Najaf the police [who are under Coalition control] say they have reached agreement with Al-Sadr's men: the gunmen will vacate the streets and the police will move in.

ˇ         We omitted to mention one of the two ICRC battalions sent to Fallujah refused to enter the city, saying they would not fight their brethren.  Some media have reported the unit as an Iraq Army battalion. US military commanders appear unfazed and say they anticipated problems because of the need to raise Iraqi units so rapidly.

ˇ         Tomorrow's ANALYSIS carries Paul Danish's assessment of the Iran connection to Al-Sadr, anticipates possible US responses, and suggests an unconventional one. Orbat.com notes that the failure to anticipate the Iraq insurgency has completely derailed the US schedule against Iran and to a lesser extent against Syria. Nonetheless, massive pressures are being brought against both countries. Bright spots in the US plan for the Islamic world is that Afghanistan is going surprisingly well, and Algeria has had genuinely democratic elections.

0230 GMT April 12, 2004

ˇ         Fighting in Fallujah has reduced considerably and the ceasefire has been extended to today morning when peace talks will resume.

ˇ         The difficulty, as Orbat.com sees it, is two fold. There does not appear to be any centralized leader of the insurgents. More importantly, the Iraqi Council members and the US are saying totally different things. The Iraqis say the ceasefire will be extended into a US withdrawal. The US is saying the insurgents need to surrender, captives must be released, Iraqi security forces must take over.

ˇ         Meanwhile, AFP and BBC give some surprising news: apparently the US has opened negotiations with - Al-Sadr. We hope the Americans are acting out of cunning, and not out of any genuine desire to bring Al-Sadr into the peaceful political process. He may say a few kind words to get out of the noose that is being tightened around, but once out will turn himself into The True and Only Hero of Iraq who Made the Americans Kneel in Trembling Fear. Orbat.com hates to say this, but its long been clear that Americans should do what they do best - kill, and the British should be permitted to do what they do best: playing off one side against another, getting the natives to do the dirty work of killing other natives, do the cheating, lying, and double crossing which are so much a part of the colonial game. And they do this with  efficiency, enthusiasm, and wisdom.

ˇ         One report confirms our suspicion that the troops in Kut are from the 1st Armored Division. To be truthful, it didn't take much to guess that, since the 1st Cavalry Division is settling in, and news reports did speak of troops coming from Baghdad.

ˇ         The hostages situation remains murky. Two bodies thought to be those of American contractors were seen by cameramen being dumped from a car; the car sped off in one direction and the cameramen fled in the other. Two men of the German elite GSG9 force are said to have been killed, but this was apparently when they were ambushed. Eight Asian lorry drivers have been released after the clerics appeal, one UK national has been released. The three Japanese hostages have not been freed, despite earlier promises, and their captors are again threatening to kill them. There are too many hostage stories to be cataloged in this summary.

ˇ         Odd things are happening around Abu Gharib. After tolerating total chaos and insurgents running all over this western Baghdad suburb town shooting up supply convoys - and shooting down an Apache yesterday, killing the crew, there are hints the Americans are moving against Abu Gharib. Our suspicion is that the downed helicopter was part of the start of the cleanup.

ˇ         Baghdad seems to be quiet. We assume its because of a combination of US troops and Al-Sadr followers going to Najaf and Karbala. Its also possible the residents of Sadr City, who were seeing a real improvement in their lives and actually getting some respect from the American troops, don't  want to lose the little they have gained.

ˇ         Orbat.com's suggestion Your editor is a disciple of management guru Edward de Bono, the originator of Po Think, that takes us beyond Yes and No. What is a Po Think solution to the problem of dealing with hardened criminals and renegades that are creating most of the problems in Iraq? Recruit and dispatch to Iraq the members of the Los Angeles gangs. There are said to be 200-300,000 of them, ready to kill and be killed to get some respect, young, and in their own way, experts in urban warfare. To say nothing of merciless. Los Angeles gets cleaned up, these youngsters get a chance to be heroes, which all they want, and the Iraq insurgents die.  No need to pay the gang members $1000 a day, either. We say this seriously:  new solutions to the gunman problem that is spreading all over the world are required. Send in your suggestions.

ˇ         The media has been presenting the Marine offensive against Fallujah as a retaliation for the murder of 4 US contractors. This has been misleading most readers. The US may have stepped up its timetable because of the contractor killings, but US I MEF returned to Iraq with the highest priority mission being to sort-out Fallujah. This offensive would have been launched even if the killings had not occurred.

ˇ         There is a hidden-from-the-public but nonetheless angry debate between the US Army and the USMC. The latter has been accusing the Army of being soft in Fallujah and compounding US problems, the Army's response has been - in short and rephrased in polite language - "you think you can sort them out? Go ahead and try, and we'll have the last laugh."

ˇ         Anyone familiar with the US Marines knows they will sort it out and while they are careful not to sacrifice men needlessly, they are the least casualty averse of the US services. To them their reputation - "No better friend, no worse enemy" - is more important than losing men in combat, and its not just the officers forcing the men to maintain that reputation, but the men themselves who demand it of their officers.

ˇ         Opinion, by Ravi Rikhye [This is purely his personal view] What has gone wrong here is not the offensive or the need to keep civilian losses to the minimum - a useless effort as even 50 civilians killed will be termed by Iraqis as "genocide", and used by the world media, with the US media in the lead, to talk of the horrors civilians are suffering in Iraq. After he is killed, of course, every sniper, every shooter suddenly becomes a "civilian" who was innocently going about his business.

ˇ         Yes, civilians are being killed because the rebels use them for cover. Is that not against the law of war? When fighting takes place in urban areas, civilians die. Leningrad, Stalin, Berlin, anyone? Hue City 1968 anyone? Why is it that the informed press is composed of people who act like idiots, when I know from personal experience that western journalists are extremely well educated and lucid - when talking to you in private.

ˇ         Is it treason for the media with its pretence of "neutrality" to point out the above to keep Fallujah in perspective? Has the media ever given a thought that but for the US's help and protection they wouldn't be there in the first place? Particularly disgusting is the Arab TV channels charges of being targeted. Had they been doing what they have in any other country and war, by now they would be dead for real.

ˇ         Do they think US snipers are so appallingly bad at their trade that they cannot use Iraqi type weapons and kill the journalists from an angle that the US military can blame the insurgents? Soldiers have no use for confrontational journalists on the battlefield - they barely have time for those they trust. Journalists in Vietnam earned their keep by sharing every hardship the soldiers suffered and exposing themselves to the same dangers. The media at this time in Iraq are like jackals, and the Arab TV channels worse.

ˇ         To the money-crazy western journalists, I have only one thing to say: most religions believe that after a person died s/he is judged before their God. In your case, you belong to a special group of people who never in the first place get to plead their case before their God. They have judged themselves in this life. Oh yes, the journalists will say - blame us for reporting the truth. I know several theologians, scientists, and philosophers. Care to debate with them about the "truth"?

ˇ         What has gone wrong is that the US higher authority, as usual, has botched the situation and the troops are paying for it. Anyone with IQ 70 could have told the authority that every Iraqi - no matter how much they hate the Sunnis - would get angry at the failure to keep Iraqi leaders informed. Even bad old Saddam, crazy Saddam, used to first to negotiate with the tribal leaders in places like Fallujah. Even the Kurds, who probably want to see the Sunnis off the planet, have criticized the political handling of this campaign.

ˇ         We do not put Al-Sadr's uprising as things having gone wrong. The politicals should have taken care of him much earlier, better still, use British tactics and let the Shias take care of him. Having not taken care of him, they should have not let the two offensives get mixed up in terms of time. But even I don't have the heart to blame the politicals for this. It really is asking too much of their limited abilities. At least compared to the media they don't claim to be the Divine.

 

1800 GMT April 11, 2004

Iraq Update

ˇ         Various interpretations of the Fallujah ceasefire are being offered. From AFP, BBC, and CNN we gather the following:

ˇ         Ceasefire went into effect 0200 US Eastern Time, 0700 GMT and 1000 Iraq time, for a period of 6 hours only. Nonetheless, Marines report being shot at and are taking action accordingly. A ruling council member issues a rosy statement saying the 6 hours will be extended by another 6 hours and US troops will begin a progressive withdrawal, with Iraq police and ICDC militia replacing. No one else except this member has been saying anything about a US withdrawal without Fallujah being sanitized of the bad guys.

0430 GMT April 11, 2004

ˇ         Al-Sadr has issued a list of demands which include an assured date for the US to withdraw from Iraq and the release of his detained followers. Orbat.com finds odd he is making demands, considering the position he is in. Al-Sadr has also said his men will not attack Coalition forces in Karbala while the current holy festival is observed.

ˇ         No information on the Fallujah situation.

ˇ         A two-person Pentagon team has arrived in Libya to seek information about a missing F-111 crewmember. The F-111 was downed; in 1989 Libya handed over one body after the Vatican intervened, and says the second was never found.

ˇ         BBC and other agencies say the breakaway Tamil Tiger leader, Karuna, has pulled in his 6000 troops, presumably to better defend his territory. No futher fighting has been reported since April 9.

ˇ         BBC says Afghan warlord General Dostum has declared his complete loyalty to the Kabul government.  On Wednesday his troops invaded Faryab Province. The General has made an explanation that he did not start the fighting; Orbat.com is not reporting the explanation as it is rather complicated. 200 Afghan National Army soldiers are patrolling the provincial capital, trying to enforce a no weapons policy. Another 550 troops are on their way.

ˇ         Reuters has a different angle on what General Dostum said. He wants the defense and interior ministers in Kabul fired because he was not consulted about the move of Afghan National Army troops to Faryab, and threatens that Mr. Karzai's government will otherwise fall. He complained of Coalition aircraft buzzing his house but said he will not be intimidated. [Orbat.com comment: another very brave or very foolish man. We assume the point of buzzing his house - if indeed that happened - is to remind him who holds his life in their hands.]

0015 GMT April 11, 2004

Iraq Update

ˇ         US and rebels have agreed to a 12 hour ceasefire starting at 0600 GMT today. The move was negotiated by Iraqi leaders and clerics. AFP reports one as saying the ceasefire will lead to a US withdrawal from Fallujah, but he seems to be talking out of turn: the rebels have demanded a US withdrawal, but the US has said only it wants an orderly return of Iraqi police to Fallujah, restoration of legitimate authority,  and [this is implied in several statements but has not been explicitly said] withdrawal or surrender of fighters.

ˇ         Neither OC 1/5th Marines, nor another Iraqi leader, expect the ceasefire to hold. 1/5th Marines are understandably skeptical because they have been continuously in action through all the various ceasefire arrangements. Orbat.com apologizes for failing to identify the other Marine battalion, 2/1st Marines. We do not know who the reinforcing battalion is.

ˇ         One news source says the Iraq Ruling Council is furious with the US because it was not taken into confidence about the offensive. Orbat.com comments that since CI operations are as much political and military, if the Council was not taken into confidence, this is a very serious insult. Since the murder of the contractors, everyone seems to have been expecting a US response, so loss of surprise would have been a small price to pay for avoiding misunderstandings.  

ˇ         The captors of the Japanese hostages will set them free after religious leaders called on them to do so. The situation regarding the other hostages remains murky to the point there would be no purpose in listing the various reports.

ˇ         CNN and BBC report several clashes in Baghdad.

Regular Update AT 0400 GMT

 

1900 GMT April 10, 2004

[2nd Update]

Marines Reinforce Fallujah; Sistani Aide Denounces Kidnappings

ˇ         AFP says mounting criticism by the Iraqi Ruling Council has forced the US to request a formal 24 hour ceasefire and that Iraqi negotiators are in the city. NPR says the US has made no demands; we presume from this the AFP report is correct, and the US is doing what it can to let Iraqi leaders have the chance to arrange a peaceful resolution.

ˇ         Meanwhile, CNN reports a third Marine battalion has entered Fallujah to reinforce; there are some indication elements of a fourth battalion might be with the Iraq Civil Defense Corps battalions that are in Fallujah.

ˇ         Various reports say fighting is still going on in various parts of the city. With the evacuation of civilians permitted, one source says Fallujah is like a ghost  town, occupied only by the battling sides.

ˇ         US says it has captured 60 insurgents in Fallujah; none are apparently related to the murder of 4 contractors.

ˇ         Meanwhile, reports from Kut continue to be inaccurate. CNN says as of today, 70% of the town had been retaken and fighting continues.

ˇ         MSNBC using Reuters and other sources quotes Iraq insurgents  to say they have 30 foreign captives and will start beheading them unless US pulls out of Fallujah.

ˇ         An aide to Ayatollah Sistani, Iran's senior most cleric, denounces the kidnappings of civilians and says it is contrary to Islam. [Orbat.com notes that it is likely the insurgents are Sunnis, and is unclear what effect a Shia leader's orders would have.]

ˇ         Reuters correspondent says he was taken to a mosque in Abu Gharib, which is an outer suburb of Baghdad on the Fallujah road where, he says, the insurgents told him they were holding the hostages. He was not permitted to get closer to film the scene, but could make out two men - he was told they were Italians - standing outside. They appeared to be wounded. The correspondent estimates about 40 armed men surround the mosque.

ˇ         We leave it to our readers to decide if the above is a trap or an act of supreme stupidity.

0400 GMT April 10, 2004

Iraq Update

ˇ         We received this note from Craig Crofoot: "There have  rumors that some elements of the 3rd Infantry Division would also deploy to Iraq if forces are needed from the US.  I have been following the reorganization of the 3rd Division, this would be the 3rd Brigade stationed at Fort Benning, Georgia.  The reason for this Brigade and not the others?  The 1st Brigade is scheduled to go to the National Training Center in May to test out its new "Unit of Action" organization and the 2nd Unit of Action (formerly the 2nd Brigade Combat Team) is currently in the middle of returning to Fort Stewart, Georgia, the Divisions main garrison.  In addition, the 3rd Brigade completed its tour at the National Training Center in February before its reorganization to a UA.  Why did the 3rd Brigade go to the NTC before its reorganization? Although not officially announced, it is presumed the 3rd Brigade would be the only "heavy" force immediately available for any deployment worldwide.  All other US heavy forces are either in Iraq or have just returned from Iraq and are in their "rest and recovery" period."

ˇ         CNN reports that while the Fallujah ceasefire is mainly holding, sporadic attacks against US forces continue. In one incident, 16 insurgents fired on US troops and then took shelter in a cave. An AC-130 was called in and then fighter aircraft dropped two 500-lb laser-guided bombs. The commander of the 1st Marine Division vows to fight the insurgents on "our terms". He added "May God help them when we're done with them" .

ˇ         NPR says that when 20 trucks laden with relief supplies reached Fallujah, the Marines found each truck also carried 20+ men aged between 20 and 40 who had come along to "help" unload.  These men were offloaded and the trucks sent on with just their drivers; a few helpers were also allowed through. What Orbat.com finds frustrating is that the news media today is so focused on the sound bite that no seems to have time to find out the really interesting stuff, such as what happened to the "helpers"?

ˇ         Agencies say US is allowing women, children, and old men fleeing Fallujah to pass through road blocks. It would appear the inhabitants fear the worst. In this case, with 1st Marine Division determined to establish control, we believe the inhabitants may have good reason to be worried.

ˇ         CNN quotes a US spokesman to say he is not surprised at the depth of resistance in Fallujah: the city was the military and intelligence stronghold of Saddam's regime.

ˇ         AFP says it has been told by an Iraqi official that 400 Iraqis have been killed and 1000 wounded in Fallujah. Orbat.com feels this may just be the start: the US cannot leave Fallujah unpacified no matter what it takes.

                Other News

ˇ         NPR reports European observers say Algeria poll was the fairest yet, and while not perfect, by regional standards was good. This has not stopped the opposition from alleging electoral fraud.

ˇ         Times of India says 100 US troops from Alaska are training with 120 Indian troops at the Counter Insurgency Jungle Warfare School in Mizoram, North East India.

ˇ         News of the Somewhat Absurd Times of India says Indian security officials are "intrigued" at the interception of an illegal arms shipment, apparently from Bangladesh to Northeast India. The shipment consists of  "1290 AK-47s, 1.1 million rounds, 25,020 grenades, 840 rockets". A week after the haul, Indian security officals have no clue who sent the arms,or who they were destined for. Now let us suppose that an illegal arms shipment had been intercepted off - say - the New England coast. We'd wager that Americans officals would be a wee bit bothered instead of just intrigued. But this is India: there are so many insurgencies underway in the Northeast that people seem to have lost count.

ˇ         NPR reports 750 Afghan National Army troops have been dispatched to North Afghanistan after the local warlord, General Dostum, "annexed" an adjoining province. The general and militia of the provinced pledged their support for Dostum.

ˇ         Press Trust of India reports the Kandhar-Kabul Highway is complete, reducing aa previously 30 hour journey to 6 hours. PTI quoted Secretary of State Powell as saying the US intended to extend the highway to link Central Asia, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India.

ˇ         Jang of Pakistan says the Pakistan Government has signed an agreement with three major North Waziristan tribes to hunt down foreigners in their territory. Meanwhile, South Waziristan draws no mention: we are clueless as to what is happening there after the recent battles with renegade tribals.

 

 

2230 GMT April 9, 2005

Update [5th today]

ˇ         Apparently a ceasefire has been declared in Fallujah and is holding. The fighting reported earlier is on account of Marine positions being attacked: troops have been given the right of self defense. Earlier this evening Iraq time, US, Iraqi and local negotiators were to meet. The Iraqis are trying to persuade the Fallujah fighters to give up those wanted for the murder of the Blackwater contractors; in turn, both the locals and the Iraqis want a cessation of the US offensive.

ˇ         In our opinion, handing over the murderers will not solve any basic problem in Fallujah: the US will also need to get its hands on a lot of other people.

ˇ         Meanwhile, despite earlier reports of Coalition forces having retaken Kut, sources now say full control is not yet established. A US task force from Baghdad, consisting of 1000 troops, is in Kut. We wonder if this has anything to do with reported withdrawal of US forces from Sadr City.

ˇ         Al-Sadr says he is going on hunger strike to protest the American offensive. We completely fail to understand how this is going to change the Americans' mind about him.

ˇ         Meanwhile, BBC and CNN report that the breakaway faction of the LTTE has clashed with the main organization and at least 10 have been killed. The LTTE has started to move against the breakaway faction with the avowed aim of eliminating it and its leader, nicknamed Karuna.

1900 GMT April 9, 2004

Iraq Update [4th today]

More Conflicting Falluja Reports; US Troops Said To Pull Back From Sadr City

The following narrative is a composite from AFP, CNN, and MSNBC

ˇ         While some reports say in the main there is a ceasefire in Fallujah, with some fighting, others say the ceasefire has ended and fighting has resumed.

ˇ         Meanwhile, one of the most pro-American members of the Iraq Council has asked the US to stop the Fallujah offensive as it is punishing the innocent with the guilty. [We would think if that were the case, the US would be using its artillery and airpower without restraint.]

ˇ         While Kut is back in Coalition hands, we did not know that Nasiriyah had also been evacuated. It is expected back in Coalition hands today.

ˇ         Anti Al-Sadr militia fought against his men in Kut and helped free the city.

ˇ         AFP says its correspondent reports US troops have evacuated police stations in Sadr City, Baghdad and also from city hall. Iraqi police were standing there.

ˇ         Fighting reported at Abu Gharib, west of Baghdad, on the rod to Fallujah. Said hundreds of insurgents control road between Abu Gharib and Fallujah outskirts.

ˇ         Blackwater tells New York Times its contractors were betrayed by the IRDC militia assigned to protect their convoy. The IRDC men told Blackwater they had arranged safe passage for the convoy through Fallujah. When the convoy entered the city, an IRDC vehicle cut them off.

1500 GMT April 9, 2004

US 1st ArmdDiv Extended in Iraq

ˇ         US 1st Armored Division has been extended in Iraq for at least 120 days. Troops enroute to embarkation points for Germany have been ordered back to Baghdad, with just their backpacks. Presumably their equipment will follow after being taken out of shipment status. Said that 4th MechDiv may also be extended. Said that none of this rules out additional troops. Please read a letter we just received from a 1st ArmdDiv family member to get a feel for realities on the ground.

Confusion Over Fallujah Truce, Kut Retaken

ˇ         [1330 GMT] AFP, BBC, and CNN report total confusion about a truce in Fallujah. As nearly as we can make out, a ceasefire was declared by Mr. Bremer effective at 0800 Iraq time to permit Iraqi leaders to negotiate with tribal leaders in Fallujah, to allow food and medicines in, and to permit burial of the dead. The Officer Commanding 1/5th Marines said that the negotiations never took place, and after 90 minutes he was told to resume offensive operations. Earlier, just before Mr. Bremer had made his announcement, BGEN Kimmet, spokesperson in Baghdad, said no such orders had been issued. he had said there was no ceasefire agreement. One report says the ceasefire was to be flexibly extended every 24 hours.

ˇ         BBC's Channel 4 says residents are fleeing the city and there are bodies untended in the street. So far fighting has been confined to the lightly populated North side.

ˇ         Aside from a terse announcement that Kut had been retaken by Coalition forces, there is no news on the situation in that city.

ˇ         Polish and Bulgarian troops fought "fierce" battles with insurgents in Karbala. A US company has arrived to strengthen the force.

ˇ         BBC reports that fighting took place in Babuqua, a mixed Shia-Sunni city north of Baghdad.

ˇ         A Shia has been appointed to the post of National Security Advisor. Earlier, Mr. Bremer had asked the Interior Minister, a Shia, to step down. He was replaced by a Sunni. Sources close to Mr. Bremer said the move was made to correct an imbalance between the Shia and Sunni factions in the Ruling Council; others suggested the failure of the Iraqi police to function during the crisis was a major factor.

ˇ         [Orbat.com would like to point out that Iraqi insurgents several months ago turned their attention on Iraqi police, as being softer targets. Over 650 police have been killed in the last six months, a figure greater than US losses till now. Many of the police have some weeks of training in Jordan, but many are out on the beat with just a few days training. Presumably these are former policemen, but we must remember policing under Saddam was a quite different business. The state of terror Iraq lived in would have made a policeman's job very safe. Also, the police are routinely outgunned in fights with insurgents. Last - a rather important point in judging the performance of the police - they live with their families in their communities, and are completely vulnerable to pressure for insurgents.]

0400 GMT April 9, 2004

The US permitted relief supplies sent by Iraqis from Baghdad to enter Fallujah after vehicles were searched. US general says there is "moderate" fighting in Fallujah. A US Marine junior officer says the Marines do not have sufficient troops in Fallujah and that the insurgents are receiving reinforcements. We gather from this that part of the US strategy is to isolate different sectors of the city from each other, and at least in the opinion of this young officer, the strategy is not successful. The Marines continue their house by house advance.

ˇ         Six coalition troops reported killed Wednesday and Thursday, a considerably smaller loss than in the early stages of the fighting. The total includes two Marines killed by snipers in Fallujah.

ˇ         US sends one company to reinforce a 480 strong Bulgarian contingent at Karbala: AFP says "fierce fighting" broke out there after the expiry of an ultimatum to quit the city was given to Bulgarians by Al-Sadr militia.

ˇ         7 ROK citizens released by their captors.

ˇ         News agencies say all the countries threatened by the Al-Sadr militia have reaffirmed their resolve to stay the course in Iraq. This includes Japan, ROK, Bulgaria, and Ukraine.

ˇ         Fighting is underway in Kut between Ukraine troops and Al-Sadr militia. No details.

0200  1200  1700 GMT April 8, 2004

Iraq Update

ˇ         [1700 GMT April 8, 2004] Up to a dozen civilians have been abducted as hostages in Iraq. CNN reports 3 are Japanese and 7 are South Korean, probably clergy. BBC says two Christian Israelis with Arab names who say they are aid workers have been kidnapped. The abductors of the Japanese have threatened to set the hostages on fire and feed them to their fighters unless Tokyo withdraws its contingent from Iraq within 3 days.  Japanese Foreign minister says that if the report of the abduction is correct, Japan will feel "very strong anger". He says the utmost will be done to get them released, and said their possible capture is no reason to pull out of Iraq.

ˇ         Agencies say Spain has been threatened with more attacks unless it withdraws its contingent from Iraq. Other coalition governments are said to be resolute or reconsidering their deployments, depends on which newspaper one reads.

ˇ         An AFP reports quotes US sources to indicate fighting in Fallujah is reduced. A US supply convoy was ambushed enroute to Fallujah and two trucks destroyed. Inside Fallujah, the Marines received fire again from the mosque. AP quotes an Irai hospital doctor to say 280 Iraqis have been killed, 400 wounded, in the operation.

ˇ         Re. our earlier questions about the Falluja mosque, a US helicopter fired at the minaret that has been damaged because Iraqi insurgents had been using it to fire on US troops. Two 500-lb bombs were dropped to create a breach in the compound wall. The 40 killed figures comes from eyewitnesses at the mosque; US found only one body when they entered the compound.

ˇ         US says attack on Kut to retake city imminent, says Coalition forces are in outer suburbs of Najaf. With five million visitors expected to attend a hold festival coming up, the US feels its options are constrained at this time.

ˇ         Orbat.com question: Where is the outrage in the western press about Iraqis using human shields, fighting from mosques,  and abducting civilians, threatening to burn them? Or is its  outrage exclusively reserved for the Americans?

ˇ         [1200 GMT April 8, 2004] CNN reports US troops raid a building used as an HQ by Al-Sadr militia in Sadr City, Baghdad. The building is destroyed; no US casualties and insurgent losses said "minimal". In Fallujah, AFP reports damage to a minaret of the mosque attacked yesterday by US forces, also damage to a residential building. Unclear if this is from the air attack or ground fighting. Marine junior officer accuses insurgents of fighting like cowards and using families as human shields.

ˇ         Very little fresh news is coming at this time from Iraq.

ˇ         In Fallujah, after failing to find any bodies at the site where US attacked insurgents who had been firing at US Marines, a US officer says it is possible that the helicopter which fired a Hellfire missile at the insurgents alerted them to move, so that when two 500-lb laser guided bombs were dropped no one was present.

ˇ         This curious episode leads us to ask why the US made an announcement of 40 killed before verification, and we also wonder why no figures for enemy casualties have been released for the Ramadi battle. Equally, we wonder how CNN can report "witnesses" said 40 people were killed. The word implies non-US sources.

ˇ         AFP says US Marines have control of 1/4th of the city.

ˇ         The Marines are going house to house with photographs of the men they want, the count of those detained is now up to 15. Fighting continues at Fallujah.

ˇ         The situation at Najaf becomes yet clearer: Coalition forces have withdrawn whatever presence they had in the city because of the arrival of hundreds of thousands of pilgrims. The Coalition is unable to provide security for them and, quite correctly, has gotten out of the way.

ˇ         In another curious development, Al-Sadr says he left Kufa for Najaf to avoid bloodshed. We must assume he refers to his own blood: grabbing him at Kufa would have resulted in far fewer civilian casualties than will be the case at Najaf.

ˇ         Debka says coalition forces have also withdrawn from Dimaniyah, not just from Kut. Debka's reporting in this crisis has been appallingly bad, which is why our readers are not seeing more Debka-sourced material.

ˇ         Right after we told our readers that our sources say reports the US may delay the outward rotation of troops to temporarily boost US strength in Iraq, Mr. Rumsfeld gets back at us by saying the delay is being considered.

ˇ         In any event, whereas I MEF had fully taken over from TF All American in Anbar Province, US 1st Armored Division is still in the process of handing off to US 1st Cavalry Division. Most of the I MEF troops had already served a tour in Iraq; 1st Armored has spent almost a year in Baghdad and has a great deal of experience, whereas the 1st Cavalry has very little. A delay would certainly make sense.

ˇ         We see different figures for Al-Sadr's militia today: a figure of up to 10,000 is being given versus 3,000 earlier. The latter figure appears to apply to Sadr City alone.

1830 GMT April 7, 2004

[Iraq 3rd Update]

ˇ         In Fallujah, a US helicopter fired rockets at insurgents using a mosque wall for cover and for attacks on US Marine patrols, killing 40. While NPR's man on the scene said this was a planned attack, made after fighters were seen going into the mosque, CNN seems to imply the rocket fire was an accident. BBC clearly said the attack was deliberate, quoting a US commander as saying if his men are attacked from a mosque, then he is not going to care any more about the mosque than the insurgents.

ˇ         Also, 60 Iraqis killed when US aircraft bomb four houses; Iraqi doctors say most were civilians including 16 children. Marines said to be at center of Fallujah and gaining ground block by block. [Note to Fallujah insurgents: this kind of close quarter fight is among the things the Marines do best. If you have an internet connection, please study Hue 1968 including short articles on Orbat.com.]

ˇ         Details have emerged about the Ramadi battle. Four groups of 10-15 insurgents attacked Marines on patrol. Previously no notable incident had taken place here. A US officer says the insurgents were very brave and fought well. For reasons unknown to us, US is still refusing to release enemy casualty figures. All the US is saying is they have captured several attackers, including Syrians, and have dead bodies to prove their assertion the attackers suffered heavily.

ˇ         In Kut, AFP reports that Ukraine troops have withdrawn to their base at US request to avoid more casualties.

ˇ         In Najaf, we now have some idea of what the Coalition is doing: Coalition forces appear to have withdrawn some time ago from the city itself, perhaps months before the recent fighting. They now have control of one part of the outer city. US spokesman makes clear US will take its time about going into Najaf, to avoid civilian losses and damage to shrines, particularly as tens of thousands of pilgrims are present.

ˇ         At Karbala, Polish troops killed the head of Al-Sadr's office in that city. No further details.

ˇ         Near Kirkuk, 8 Iraqis killed when US troops fire on a demonstration.

ˇ         US prepares for next round in Sadr City, no details available.

 

1215 GMT April 7, 2004

[Iraq 2nd Update]

Marines Control Most of Fallujah, Fighting Flares in Karbala, Dies Down in Nasiriyah

ˇ         Distinguishing battles and casualties by day or fight is extremely difficult because of the modern US newspaper habit - adopted by most wire services - of presenting a complete story to inform anyone of the background should they have missed earlier stories. Further, the updating on newspaper, wire service, and other media websites is shockingly belated. This reporting style has the unfortunate effect of eating up space that is spent repeating pointless sound-bites to the exclusion of new.

ˇ         Agencies suggest US Marines have control of most of Fallujah, and if news reports are correct, we have the impression that fighting on Wednesday [Iraq time] is much reduced. CNN and AFP, for example, cite only attack on a post holding a bridge.

ˇ         Coalition forces kill 5 Iranians and 3 Iraqis and wound others in a fight in Karbala, the first reported incident in that city.

ˇ         AFP reports Nasiriyah is quiet, with Iraqi police moving into secure police stations and government offices seized by Al-Sadr militia. Italian troops have apparently given the local authorities two days to negotiate/stabilize the situation before resuming operations.

ˇ         In Sadr City some fighting has taken place in the form of skirmishes. A soldier from US 1st Armored Division has been killed; an airstrike was called in at some point.

ˇ         Washington Post reports that a Sunni faction has demonstrated alongside Al-Sadr supporters in Sadr City. This vast slum covers about 10 square miles.

ˇ         Our impression - which may be quite wrong - is that after the initial battles Al-Sadr militia has suffered unexpected heavy losses that is giving pause for thought. The requirement to keep cohesion over fighters in several cities south of Baghdad must be proving a constraint: we feel Al-Sadr has understood he should concentrate his forces. There is a big element of spontaneity among various groupings of his followers, which is tactically advantageous in the initial stages of a fight, but becomes a liability as the battle progresses. Iraqis tend to be individualistic and opportunistic. From a military viewpoint, this is not an asset. We see no need to summarize the military and political situation from the US/Allied side as readers have more than enough information to draw their own conclusions.

0330 GMT April 7, 2004

Fighting Spreads to Ramadi

[The following composite has been pieced together from CNN, AP, BBC, AFP]

ˇ         Agencies say fighting has spread to Ramadi, where about 60-80 men, said by CNN to be Saddam loyalists, attacked a US Marine position, killing 12 Marines and wounding 20+. The attackers casualties are said also to be heavy, but no details are given. AFP says the men were Al-Sadr supporters.

ˇ         Al-Sadr's website says he has left Kufa and taken up in Najaf. Sources express surprise he should do this because he is not liked. In our opinion, it is a logical move: Najaf is the site of the holiest Shia shrine, it is a much bigger place than Kufa, and its going to be harder to get Al-Sadr without causing serious collateral damage. He is plainly assuming the sight of fighting in Najaf will inflame the Shias. Of course, we lack the expertise to say if the Shias are going to particularly upset considering who the target is.

ˇ         Fighting continues in Fallujah, with very few details. US says it has captured several high-value targets, but does not specify who. BBC reports at least one air strike and says US Marines have been fighting street to street. One report says the Marines withdrew from Fallujah city center after driving in with considerable force; but AP indicates the Marines are holding several city blocks. There is fighting on the northern end of the city as insurgents fired on Marines whoa re presumably blocking an escape route in that area.

ˇ         Fighting continues in Sadr City: we get the impression in the main the fighting is light skirmishing, but every now and then flares into a serious engagement. 36 Iraqis are reported killed; we are unable to disaggregate US loses in Sadr City's fighting on Tuesday from a welter of overlapping reports.

ˇ         As we had thought possible, Al-Sadr's militiamen are making their way to Najaf [we had thought they would go to Kufa]. As was the case yesterday, we have no information on what, where, when the coalition is doing around Najaf.

ˇ         From Najaf the Washington Post reports a story that had we read it in a work of fiction we'd have been inclined to say: "What a wild imaginatoion". Apparently several hundred Al-Sadr militia attacked the Coalition HQ in Najaf, which was defended by 8 Blackwater contractors, 4 US MPs, and a lone US Marine. Three and a half hours later, the militia abandoned its attack, but not before a sniper managed to get onto an adjacent rooftop and wound three of the defenders, including the Marine. The US military apparently had no idea what was going on because protecting the building is Blackwater's responsibility. With ammunition running low and the Marine badly wounded, two Blackwater helicopters arrived in the middle of the battle to deliver ammunition and evacuate the wounded. US Special Forces reached the scene after the battle was over. A Blackwater source asking not to be identified told the Post that there were many Iraqi casualties. We learn that "several hundred" 40mm grenades were among the ordnance shot off; these are lethal within a 5 meter radius, and depending on the manner in which the attack was conducted, Iraqi losses could be serious. The Al-Sadr militia is considered by US troops and Iraqi police alike to be no better than an armed rabble, which further leads us to believe that the attackers suffered heavy loss. We are unlikely to know what exactly happened during this battle. We wonder what the famous science fiction author Robert Heinlein would have thought of this episode and Blackwater.

ˇ         The UK 1st Mechanized Brigade has started rotating into Iraq to replace the 20th Mechanized Brigade. London says it has no plans to send additional troops. Clearly, however, depending on how exactly the rotation is handled there can be a doubling of the UK force for weeks or even months. Meanwhile, there are rumors the US may make a major reinforcement of Iraq by suspending movement of troops rotating out as well as by bringing in fresh troops. At this point, there is absolutely no confirmation. The British have persuaded al-Sadr supporters in Amarah to vacate police stations and government buildings they had seized.

ˇ         There has been at least one incident of fighting in Kut: a soldier from Ukraine was reported killed.

1200 GMT April 6, 2004

[2nd Update]

ˇ         CNN provides first figures on Iraqi casualties: 45 killed in Sadr City over the weekend, 60 killed Monday as US troops reestablished control. US troops have received fire from a hospital but have not fired back. Besides 7 US killed in the initial fighting, no further US losses reported here.

ˇ         Fighting flares in Amarah, BBC reports, 15 Iraqis killed by UK forces, no friendly losses reported. Fighting flares also in Nasiriyah, Italian forces kill 12 Iraqis, no friendly losses.

ˇ         In Fallujah, AFP and other agencies report US Marines lose 4 killed Monday. As the city is cordoned off, few reports are available as to what's happening inside. What is known is the US used an AC-130 at one point, Apaches have been in action, and artillery may have been used. [The AC-130 has a 105mm cannon.] 2/1st and 1/5th Marines are the USMC units at Fallujah, the Iraqi militia battalions have not been identified.

ˇ         CNN says Moqtada al-Sadr is believed to have 600 hard core followers and up to 3000 militia loyal to him. If so, considering perhaps a quarter of his men are with him at Kufa, the militia has taken heavy losses already. Orbat.com presumes that militia members from other cities including Baghdad are making their way to Kufa - there is no news on what the coalition is doing around this town, where it appears the issue will be decided.

ˇ         While US media have extensively carried reports that President Bush's support on Iraq is slipping, MSNBC is careful to quote the Pew Foundation as saying support for the intervention remains as strong as before, the doubts are about Mr. Bush's handling of the issue - now only 4 of 10 polled approve. We are trying to locate an article which makes a critical point: the US public has never been averse to casualties, it is the elites including the military elite that have been casualty averse.

0200 GMT April 6, 2004

Al-Sadr/US Confrontation Update, Fallujah "locked down"

ˇ         Agencies report 1300 US Marines and two Iraq civil defense corps battalions have closed access to Fallujah by throwing up earthen berms - an indication both that the Marines intend to make sure no one crashes through their roadblocks with all the attendant unpleasantness and that this operation really is going to take time. Judged from an AP photo taken at a point where the highway signs say "Fallujah Baghdad ?First? Interchange" and "Rutba Ramadi" the berms are a serious affair: at least 15 feet high. The Iraq desert, incidentally, is generally rocky in this region, with a thin covering of sand. Any vehicle with a reliable engine can cut across the desert, not that anyone wanting to escape Fallujah would be advised to try this at the present time.

ˇ         Skirmishes are reported, but we have no update on the tactical situation after 1230 GMT yesterday. At one point airstrikes were called in. US troops have been going around Fallujah telling the 300,000 residents to abide by the curfew. US attacks normally come after dark because of their big edge in night-fighting capability. [Our older readers will remember a time when "night-fighting capability" meant turning on a powerful searchlight slaved to a tank gun, illuminating any potential target - and illuminating the tank for the rest of the battlefield.]

ˇ         The US administrator in Iraq declared Mr. Al-Sadr an "outlaw". The US revealed there is a warrant for his arrest in the same murder case where a rival cleric was killed last year for which his deputy is already in custody. NPR says when reporters asked the US military spokesperson why this warrant, which apparently was issued several months ago, had not been served earlier, he replied merely that the warrant and the time/manner in which it was to be served was the Iraqi judge's concern.

ˇ         Mr. Al-Sadr is in a mosque at Kufa surrounded by several hundred armed gunmen. While his statements show a touching belief that the people of Iraq will rise up to save him, the only point of note regarding his statements is that apparently Mr. Al-Sadr has also said that 9/11 was a god-send against the Americans. Mr. Al-Sadr's men say they will never allow him to be taken alive - not a nice thing for people guarding you to say. One of his followers was quoted as saying something akin to "take me to say goodbye to my mother, and then I will give my life for Al-Sadr". Orbat.com wonders if we are being petty when we ask why could this youngster not go to say goodbye to his mother himself? It is his right to give his life when he feels it is appropriate, but he has ample opportunities right now if he is serious.

ˇ         In Sadr City there are an unknown number of Iraqi casualties as US troops took back police stations. They have also occupied Mr. Al-Sadr's headquarters. Fighting seems to have ceased, an NPR report in the city said people were going about their work and the scene was calm.

ˇ         Meanwhile, General Abizaid, who heads CENTCOM, has asked for contingency planning for dispatch of additional troops at short notice, but apparently feels at this time he does not require reinforcements.

ˇ         Basara is quiet as the British negotiate with Al-Sadr supporters to vacate the buildings they have occupied.

ˇ         Meanwhile, AFP reports that the Jordanian terrorist leader Mussab al-Zarqawi has issued a statement on tape saying his group has taken the lives of 200 "crusaders". He made other helpful statements, including calling Grand Ayatollah Sistani the "imam of atheism"  and accused the Shias of being a Trojan horse to take over the country. Perhaps he is referring to rumors that many top Shia clerics are taking their orders from Teheran?

 

1230 GMT April 5, 2004

[Additional Update]

ˇ         CNN says on Monday morning Iraq time US Marines "locked down" Fallujah, shutting all roads into the town. Only cars with local plates are being let through. Marines raided several houses; at least 1 Marine and 7 Iraqis have been killed. Locals say 5 Iraqis died and 15 were wounded in one firefight that left 10 houses demolished. US strategy is to be precise, and the operation will proceed slowly over several days. Meanwhile, Iraqi authorities have declared a 7 PM curfew in the town; weapons and demonstrations have been banned. Meanwhile, Highways 1 and 10 between Baghdad and Jordan have been closed indefinitely because of ongoing military operations, including those at Fallujah.

0300 GMT April 5, 2004

Al-Sadr/Coalition Clash Update

ˇ         Using mainly CNN and AP, as near as we can determine, the following is the situation:

ˇ         The Iraq police requested US help to arrest anti-American Shia cleric Al-Sadr's deputy and 24 others wanted for murdering a rival Shia cleric in April 2003.

ˇ         Al-Sadr's followers were already upset because Mr. Bremer had ordered his newspaper shut down on grounds of inciting anti-American violence; several demonstrations had taken place on Friday and Saturday.

ˇ         Al-Sadr's deputy and 12 other wanted were arrested. Al-Sadr's militia, the Mahadi Army, then stormed through several blocks of Sadr City [named after his father, a famous cleric, who was killed by Saddam] and seized several police stations and buildings. 7 US soldiers were killed in an ambush - the circumstances are not yet clear. We do not know if they were with the Iraqi police or if they were reinforcements sent when trouble broke out.

ˇ         As of this update, CNN reports US forces have retaken 5 of the police stations. There is absolutely no indications of Iraqi casualties at this time: given the US tendency to use overwhelming force, it is likely they are heavy. There is no word of any further US casualties in the Sadr City fighting, which may still be going on. 24 US troops are reported wounded, probably during and following the ambush.

ˇ         Meanwhile, al-Sadr supporters attacked Camp Polo in Najaf, where the Spanish contingent and troops from Latin America are based. One Salvadorian, one American, and two Iraqi soldiers were killed and several soldiers wounded; the attackers lost 20 killed and estimates of wounded run to 200. Earlier reports of 4 Salvadorians being killed are apparently incorrect. The Salvador government reiterated its commitment to maintain troops in Iraq.

ˇ         Coalition forces called in air cover, which included Apache attack helicopters. While the Apaches did not open fire, their arrival persuaded the mob to disperse. From AP there is an indication fighting was still underway in Najaf and al-Sadr loyalists as of late Sunday night Iraq time, with al-Sadr loyalists rushing to Najaf.

ˇ         In Kufa, which lies between Baghdad and Najaf,  Al-Sadr supporters on their way to Najaf seized the police station and other government buildings. No further information has been recieved about Kufa.

ˇ         Amarah and Nasiriyah also saw demonstrations, to a lesser extent; as far as we can tell, British and Italian troops took care of these. Four Iraqis were killed at Amarah; one Italian officer was wounded in Nasiriyah. Basra apparently was also the scene of demonstrations.

ˇ         Al-Sadr is said to have taken refuge in a mosque in Najaf.

ˇ         AFP says Grand Ayatollah Sistani, who has been having much fun thwarting Mr. Bremer and thus delaying an orderly transfer of power to the Iraqis, called on Shias to remain calm and not respond to American provocation. He says Al-Sadr's demands were legitimate; nonetheless, according to Arabnews.com, he has called for differences with the coalition to be resolved through neotatiation.

ˇ         We are no experts on this somewhat rash and immature 30-year old man, but do advise readers to keep in mind that aside from the US/Coalition, most Shia clerics do not like him. He is using his "battle" against the Americans as a way of gaining power among the Shias - "look I am bravely fighting the Americans while your Shia leaders serve as their lackey" sort of thing. Now that he has overplayed his hand, we'd assume his Shia opponents look forward to his neutralization as much as the Coalition. As further proof of his leadership prowess, Al-Sadr over the weekend declared his support for Hamas and Mr. Arafat. No doubt his gesture will speed the day Israel is finished.

ˇ         At least one report speaks of Al-Sadr calling for restraint on the part of his followers: if true, this would indicate he understands things are out of hand.

ˇ         Singapore is to use India's biggest army training range at Pokaran in the Rajasthan desert for exercising its troops. Five Singapore Air Force aircraft are to use IAF Gwalior as a training base. [Thanks to Gordon A. MacKinlay for the news.]

ˇ         Agencies say one of the 3 men who killed themselves when Spanish police arrived to arrest them in connection with the Madrid rail bombings was the leader of the group resposnble for the bombings.

0230 GMT April 4, 2004

ˇ         Agencies quote Spain's interior minister says when police closed in on 3 train bombing suspects holed up ina  Madrid suburb, the men blew themselves up, also killing a policeman.

ˇ         CNN says Sri Lanka's election has passed off as the most peaceful in years. The President's party is set to win, but will nonetheless have to form a coalition with smaller parties for a majority.

ˇ         We owe a thank you to Jang of Pakistan: they have - albeit indirectly - explained the Masud tribal militia was hunting for those who ambushed a Pakistan Army convoy on their territory, and have disbanded their 6000 militia force because they have searched and can assure the Pakistan government there are no foreigners in their area.

ˇ         Meanwhile, Jang says a massive explosion took place in a village neat Wana that had been the focal point of the Pakistan Army's operations. Apparently a truck laden with arms and ammunition exploded and set off fires in which 35 arms dealers shops were leveled. The locality is described as a village, our guess is it is closer in population to a small American town. We'd assume the US National Rifle Association is missing a great opportunity to add to its membership: if our guess is right, there would be perhaps 1 arms shop per 500-800 population.

ˇ         Washington Post and other agencies report that Shia leader M. Sadr has escalated his confrontation with the occupation authority: after a newspaper run by his party was ordered closed by the US administrator, for inciting violation against the coalition, several demonstrations have taken place threatening the US to get out of Iraq or be put out. Disarming of various militia's is assuming importance, and particular attention is being focused on Sadr's militia.

ˇ         CNN reports US Major-General Petraeus has turned over command of the US 101st AA Division to another officer as he is being sent to Iraq with a responsibility for militia disarmament. He is popular with the Kurds: his division was stationed in Mosul and Kirkuk, and he quickly developed a pacification style that combined diplomacy, respect to the Iraqis, rapid development of the infrastructure, a tight control of his own men, and a propensity to strike back hard after any attacks on his troops. He will need all his skills if the object is to get the Kurds to disarm.

1300 GMT April 3, 2004

[2nd Update]

ˇ         MSNBC says US has identified several of the Fallujah attackers. Between 7 and 11 men were involved, including non-Iraqis and ex-paramilitary. The attack was preplanned and locals told to avoid the area. The SUV with 4 American "contractors" was leading a convoy of flatbed trucks with cargo when it was stopped by a vehicle that suddenly blocked passage.

ˇ         Orbat.com notes these men were not contractors as the term is generally understood. They consisted of 3 former army SF troops and a former navy SEAL. several tens of thousands of these men are in Iraq on behalf of  security companies, and are paid an average of $1000 a day. They are employed because the US Army is so short handed. This is another blow to the Rumsfeld Doctrine, because in a guerilla situation using older ex-servicemen in lieu of regulars is not the best idea.

ˇ         The US Marine plan for Fallujah now becomes clear. MSNBC says action is still several days away. Clearly the Marines want to precisely target the perpetrators and thus minimize the impact on the civilian population. Presumably steps have been taken to prevent the exit from Fallujah of the wanted men.

ˇ         Most interesting is the obvious conclusion that even in a city as hostile as Fallujah, the US has excellent intel sources. The US military has come a very long way from Vietnam.

ˇ         Meanwhile, Washington Post reports al-Qaeda has been seriously crippled with the world wide arrest or killing of 3400 operatives. We are curious as to why this news is being so casually reported.

 

0200 GMT April 3, 2004

ˇ         Jang of Pakistan says the 6,000 strong Masud tribe militia which assembled to track down those responsible for killing 20 Pakistani soldiers in a convoy ambush have dispersed, declaring they have seen the lay of the land and are ready when needed. None of this makes clear what is happening. Meanwhile, Waziri tribals have agreed to hand over to the Pakistan Government the five most wanted renegade tribals. Orbat.com comment We'll believe it when see it.

ˇ         From a Reuters report we estimate another infantry brigade has reinforced Pakistan Army troops in Waziristan. We've  been unable to keep track of these deployments, but believe there are at least 4 brigades present, plus two battalions of commandos, as well as perhaps 6000+ Frontier Corps troops. The reinforcement would indicate that if the wanted renegades are not handed over, and if Al Qaeda/Taliban do not surrender, a fresh offensive will be undertaken.

ˇ         BBC reports 75% voting in Sri Lanka. we'd prefer to hold off giving opinions till the results come in.

ˇ         BBC reports wide-scale arrests of military officers in Nigeria with coup rumors rampant.

ˇ         Times of India reports Indian Air Force fears two of 4 Jaguar fighter-bombers on a low-level training sortie over Kashmir have crashed due to bad weather.  [Orbat.com note: Lacking the resources required for the massive US-type air task forces attacking at medium altitude, the Indian Air Forces flying its deep penetration and interdiction missions at low-level. Also, low-level attacks have traditionally been favored as in the RAF.]

1100 GMT April 2, 2004

ˇ         Washington Post says US Marines have sealed off Fallujah, setting up road blocks and restricting traffic from leaving or entering the city.

ˇ         AFP reports head of Chechen rebel Aslan Maskhadov's bodyguard detail has surrendered to Russian authorities, saying he is tired of fighting and wishes to return to civilian life. The move follows the surrender of other rebels around Maskhadov, including his defense minister.

ˇ         CNN reports Cold War officially declared over by NATO as 7 former USSR members join. [Orbat.com: we thought the Cold War ended with the reunification of Germany]

ˇ         CNN says UN troops to start arriving Ivory Coast April 5. An advance mission arrived March 31.

0200 GMT April 2, 2004

ˇ         Jang of Pakistan says the Masud tribe's 6000-strong militia assembled to hunt down foreigners in South Waziristan has begun dispersing to several location to start the search. The Masuds have warned locals not to shelter foreigners or else they will face the consequences.

ˇ         Haartez of Israel says an EU parliamentary inquiry has concluded that no evidence exists to show the Palestine Agency has diverted EU funds to terrorism. Some parliamentarians disagree.

ˇ         Washington Post says a UN snatch team failed to find and arrest Radovan Karadzic during a raid in Pale. CNN adds the team of 40 men consisted mainly of UK and US troops. The UN did manage to grab a bodyguard of Karadzic off the street as he walked his daughter to school. The man has been handed over to local police.

ˇ         CNN reports US authorities in Baghdad says US Marines will enter and reestablish control of Fallujah, but will do it prudently and in force. He said the entry would not be "pell-mell" for concern over ambushes. Earlier, agencies had reported that Fallujah was quiet, with residents expecting US retaliation, but that so far no US forces had come into the city.

ˇ         Pravda reports that the divorced wife of a Bin Laden brother is sure he is alive and well, even though the family says they have not heard from him. She bases her reasoning on the assumption that if he were dead the family would know it. She says Bin Laden enjoys support at the highest ruling levels of the Saudi kingdom.

 

0200 GMT April 1, 2004

Pakistan Tribals Mass For Anti-Al Qaeda/Taliban Drive

ˇ         More confusion today on what's happening in the tribal confrontation in Pakistan. Jang says 6,000 armed Masuds [a tribe different from the Waziris, a subtribe of whom has been sheltering Al Qaeda and Taliban] are massing to begin a drive to find the killers of 20 Pakistan soldiers ambushed when their convoy was reinforcing Wana, the scene of earlier fighting. Meanwhile, the Pakistan Army is reported to be reinforcing the area of the ambush.

ˇ         Jang says that the Pakistan Army has given a 10 day ultimatum to the Waziri tribes to hand over five renegade leaders, and the Political agent has convened a jirga to explain to the Waziris that unless they take responsbility for handing over the five men, as per Tribal Area law, collective punishments will be inflicted on the Waziri. The Waziri elders have also been asked to hand over the killers of two local administrators who were earlier kidnapped and then executed in custody of the renegade Waziri.

ˇ         Pravda reports that two young men poured water and glue on George Soros at a conference of human rights groups in Ukraine. They shouted nationalistic slogans and told Soros to stop interfering in their country's political process. Soros says he has come only to promote the idea of fair and free elections. The Pravda correspondent dryly says that Soros hates President Bush so much he is willing to spend any amount to defeat him in the 2004 US election, so presumably while waiting for the US election he has come to practice on "smaller countries". Pravda also says recently Soros offered to pay Georgia Republic civil servant salaries to eliminate official corruption, and presumably he will offer Ukraine the same deal [Its not easy to tell when Pravda is displaying the famous Russian penchant for sarcasm or is serious - we can read only the badly translated articles in English and are positive we're missing most of the nuance.]

ˇ         Quote from Pravda: By visiting Ukraine, George Soros gave the start to the presidential election campaign in this country. Soros and the politicians close to him demonstrated their intention to conduct one more "velvet revolution". Ukrainian authorities frustrated the oligarch a little by ruining his expensive suit. Russia is the next to act. If Russia keeps silence, "velvet revolution" in Ukraine is inevitable. We can have one more "velvet state" on our border, and its government will get their salaries from Soros.

ˇ         Please read Pravda's take on the US and Kazakhstan.

ˇ         CENTCOM says Operation Iron Promise, run by the US 1st Armored Division in Baghdad, is into its 5th day. The aim is to break up the remaining résistance cells in the Iraq capital. The division's nickname is "Old Ironsides". Meanwhile, agencies say five US soldiers and 4 civil contractors were killed near Fallujah on Wednesday in separate incidents.

ˇ         AP reports the first of 2000 US Marine reinforcements has reached Afghanistan, bringing the total US force in-country to 15,500. The Marines will be deployed together in one area where the bases can support them. Meanwhile, agencies report UN/US forces open the 12th Provincial Reconstruction Team, at Khost; 4 more are planned. The PRTs have a military element for security and a reconstruction element. Also meanwhile, reports say "new" US tactics of having the same troops return repeatedly  to a village is working well: the tactic is intended to enhance the village's feeling of security, and builds up valuable contacts. Many successful small US operations in the past months have relied on local information. While Orbat.com avoids simplistic generalizations about the Vietnam War, it is nonetheless a relief to see the Americans at last understanding CI is not about throwing in thousands of troops into an area for a 6-day sweep, thundering around blasting everything in sight, then pulling out. The American refused to take to Vietnam with them the decades of CI experience against some of the 19th Century's best guerillas, the plains Indians, decades  of US Marine CI experience in Central America, and considerable US Army experience in the Philippines.