News Archive

September, 2003

[0130 GMT September 30] Jang of Pakistan reports that both the EU and the US have separately told Teheran it will face sanctions unless its clandestine nuclear program is not declared to the IAEA - there appears to be an October 31 deadline; US says it is prepared to refer Teheran's defiance to Security Council to lay ground work for sanctions

Iwo Jima ARG leaves Liberia, US says mission accomplished as 3500 West African troops are in-country and they have own quick reaction force; no word on how long the 100 extra US troops in Monrovia will leave

Jang of Pakistan reports that US aircraft may have dropped 4 bombs on Pakistani territory in the South Waziristan Agency, while pursuing Taliban; others say bombs fell on Afghan side of border; eye witnesses say US forces are engaged in a battle with Taliban forces and that the air bombardment has possibly been heaviest since 2001 campaign; meanwhile, Afghan says they will deploy an extra 500-man battalion facing S Waziristan to retake Barmal District of Paktika Province now under Taliban control and to stop increased infiltration from Pakistan of Taliban including foreigners, later include Chechans

US 1/501st Airborne Infantry from 172 InfBde in Alaska to deploy to Afghanistan for 6 months, as part of 1st Bde, 10th MtnDiv - thanks to reader Joseph Stefula for the information

In the recent big raids in Tikrit, it now appears from CNN reports that a 200-man Iraqi police unit was in the forefront and was backed by US troops; latest is that 92 suspects have been arrested; US also captures 3 and kills 1 involved in June abduction and murder of two US soldiers from 3/18th Artillery, their M-16 rifles have been recovered

Just Another Day In Kashmir: VOA says 15 terrorists killed trying to infiltrate Indian Kashmir in Gurais [N Kashmir] sector; two Indian soldiers and 1 child killed in Pakistani artillery fire; 300 in all die in September [Orbat.com comment: we are starting to wonder if the rising tide of violence in Kashmir is the result of increased infiltration or if, thanks to new equipment and sensors, the Indian Army is better able to stop infiltrators; in past most infiltrators had a fairly easy passage in and out, but kills like the 15 reported show the terrorists are, for the first time, taking heavy losses in border crossings]

[0130 GMT September 29] Jang of Pakistan has a report from its Peshawar correspondent saying the Taliban claims it has forced US troops from a firebase at Barikot in E Kunar province after bringing it repeatedly under attack; the troops left for Asadabad, capital of Kunar, on Saturday; earlier, the Taliban said they had forced US troops from Lwara in S Afghanistan [Orbat.com has no idea if this report is true, it does remind readers that after an operation is over the US usually abandons firebases/LZs set up for the operation]

Times of India reports that the Indian Defense Minister caused an uproar when at a symposium he said the Line of Control in Kashmir is not well delineated, thus inadvertently supporting Pakistan's rationale for its intrusion into the Kargil sector in 1999 - the incident almost led to full-scale war between the two countries [Orbat.com notes that senior Indian ministers often make the most serious gaffes because they speak without thinking; the LOC was actually delineated in detail in 1972 following the 1971 War, under the Simla Agreement; the Siachin area was not covered, it was so high and desolate that no one at the time thought troops could live and fight there; this omission let to the trouble in 1984 - present in that region]

CNN says in mixed message Teheran now says it will not abandon nuclear program including uranium enrichment; hardliners have been arguing for a pull out from the NPT similar to DPRK, but the government, led by moderates, sees room for compromise without abandoning the program, such as signing an additional protocol allowing snap inspections; IAEA visits on Thursday.

US 4th Division finds two more weapons caches; 78 persons now under arrest in latest drive

BBC says 7 Afghan bodyguards killed by Taliban ambush; they worked for Governor of Helmand Province [W of Kandhar Province], he was not present

Said Saudi Arabia refuses US request for troops for Iraq

CNN says Guinea-Bissau swears in interim president prior to national elections in 18-months; crisis created by military coup - triggered by elected president's failure to resolve serious economic problems - seems over

[0500 GMT September 28] Jang of Pakistan quotes Syrian sources to say US plans to introduce bill in Congress to impose sanctions on Syria over its forces in Lebanon and support of the Palestinian cause - the report does not mention Iraq, which will also be a major issue

Warning to US National Guard's 81st Infantry Brigade for Iraq duty confirmed yesterday by agencies; this is one of 12 enhanced brigades in the Guard, as such it has equipment on par with the regular army and trains with the regulars; troops told to prepare for 18 month service which will include 6 months training and a year's of overseas duty

Also we see indications that US Marine Corps units will return to Iraq, this time to serve under HQ US V Corps, and that units of 3rd Marine Division from Okinawa will be involved, with units from other divisions and possibly the reserve 4th Division replacing them in the Pacific reserve

Reuters says US 4th MechDiv finds big weapons cache at a farm near Tikrit, including 23 SAM-7, 1000 pounds plastique, 500 grenades, "hundreds" of detonators, "dozens" of mortar bombs, and RPGs; farm owned by an associate of Saddam regime, informant led to the cache

Amnesty International protests US rules of engagement permitting troops to fire at will and condemns the lack of investigation/action; it recognizes US troops are under attack but says this is still no justification [This news is taken from Jang of Pakistan which prints it without attribution, Amnesty UK site last updated September 26 has no mention on front page]

[0500 GMT September 27] The Times of India reports the Guard's 81st Infantry Brigade has been alerted for deployment to Iraq, this is over and above the activations on Friday night of 30th and 39th Brigades; these were already on alert for 6-month Iraq deployments [We were a bit baffled to see this news in Times of India while at this time CNN does not have it up]

Agencies report the US is prepared for Iraqis to frame a constitution within 6 months; earlier the US wanted the decision left to the Iraqis; this move is a concession to anti-intervention nations like France and Germany, but it remains unclear if it is in the best interest of the Iraqi people - the Balkans have shown that years are required for nation building

Times of India reports from Washington that the US has spoken privately to Pakistan in unusually harsh language demanding an end to infiltration into Indian Kashmir and Afghanistan; publicly the US has been full of praise for Pakistan's change of course after September 11 and for its cooperation in the war on terror

BBC says US holds 19 Al-Qaeda suspects among 248 foreigners in Iraq, half of the foreigners are Syrians; US administrator acknowledges the infiltrators are causing major problems but says reconstruction will go ahead

There are reports that the US will accelerate formation of the Iraqi Army, against 7,000 troops ready by February, according to the new plan all planned 40,000 will be ready; presumably expansion of paramilitary and police organizations will also accelerate; while Orbat.com had predicted the acceleration as part of the Rumsfeld plan to offset the lack of foreign contributions, its clear that there are critics of the plan who say the pace of formation of units should be dictated by military requirements and not political ones; in Afghanistan, for example, only about 5000-7000 men have been trained in the last two years though the pace is expected to pick up - of course, Afghanistan has far more problems forming a national army

We also learn that the accelerated expansion aims not just to eliminate the need for addition al troops for Iraq, but that Mr. Rumsfeld wants his field commanders to reduce present force levels by next spring and summer

Moves are underfoot to expand the international security presence in Afghanistan; the US in particular seems to have understood the need for a greater push here, particularly after the Taliban summer offensive, but its not clear what the international community has in mind besides setting up combined security-development teams in the provinces - and the security part seems to be for the benefit of the team, not the locals

[0200 GMT September 26, 2003] Sources say a decision on call up of reserve and National Guard troops equal to a division will have to be taken in 4-6 weeks; while US still hopes for a multinational division, a US military officer told the Washington Post that hope is not a plan

Meanwhile, Turkey and Pakistan and still continue quibbling and equivocating over sending troops to Iraq; while India says it will reconsider its earlier refusal, Orbat.com suggests these are simply kind soothing words from the Indian Prime Minister to President Bush, and the former has no intention of getting into complications in Iraq for the US's sake

Also meanwhile, the UN Secretary General dealt a major blow to US efforts to internationalize its intervention in Iraq by ordering 15% of the staff out, more are to follow; the UN is concerned about the security of its personnel

Jang of Pakistan says UN inspectors have found traces of enriched uranium at a second site in Iran, previously declared as non-nuclear; Iranians again say the enriched material is contamination from equipment brought from another country; question not answered is why Iran is buying equipment previously used to enrich uranium and not reporting it to the IAEA; meanwhile, Washington Post reports Iran is prepared to negotiate differences with the US; however insincere this offer may be, Orbat.com feels it is a major back-down for Teheran and an acknowledgement that the US is not easily corssed

Debka.com says that the 27 Is.AF pilots who refused to fly mission to/over Palestine, Israeli sources say most of the pilots were not tasked to these missions and their protest is political

News of the Sort of Absurd: the Indian agent of an Israeli armaments maker took home 3 inert ASMs after the company decided to pull out of an Indian Air Force competition, instead of turning them over to the IAF; the Israeli company then had to turn to the IAF for help in recovering its missiles [Orbat.com comment: 3 ASMs in one's living room should certainly make for gtood cocktail party chatter]

For the first time, Iraqi troops have relieved a US unit in the field: CENTCOM reports B Company, Iraq Civil Defense Corps has taken over guard of an ammunition supply point in North Iraq from a chemical unit attached to 101st AmblDiv

[0230 GMT September 25, 2003] The AP reports a major call up of reserves and Guard troops may be imminent to send more troops to Iraq [Thanks to reader Joseph Stefula for the news] Meanwhile AP also says US forces killed 9 Iraqis in the heaviest fighting seen in some time

A landmark in Iraq was reached yesterday when 1/7th Marines handed over control of Najaf to Spanish troops of the MND South East, 3 weeks late on account of the mosque bombing; presumably this means the last remaining Marine infantry battalions will also be readying to leave Iraq; two MP companies are to remain in Najaf to help the international peace keepers

Meanwhile, ironically the arrival of Polish troops in SE Iraq has caused the locals to wax nostalgic for the Americans - the London Times makes clear this is due to no fault of the Poles, but more that the Americans spoke English - most Iraqis speak a bit of the language - and socialized a lot; also there seems to be the feeling if you are going to be occupied, better to be occupied by the biggest, baddest, and richest country rather than an East European one [Thanks to contributor Gordon A. MacKinlay for the news]

BBC reports 27 Israeli pilots have refused to fly attack or transport missions over/into Palestine on grounds these are illegal; government blasts pilots for going public without first using proper channels

Jang of Pakistan says Hamas leader throws a direct challenge to new Palestine PM: Hamas will not surrender weapons or make peace with Israel

[0230 GMT September 24] Any comfort President George Bush hoped to get from the UN for Iraq is looking increasingly unlikely especially after Secretary General Kofi Anan - who has previously put a premium on good relations with Washington - attacked US unilaterism; Mr. Bush's offer to have the UN supervise Iraqi elections has been brushed off by the players that count as too little inducement for them to get behind the US on Iraq [Orbat.com comment: Our advise to Mr. Bush - you cannot hold American foreign policy hostage for the lack of two divisions: the US has a population of 280 million and a GNP of $10 trillion. We suggest you bite the bullet, activate 7th and 24th Divisions and do the job instead of begging at the UN]

Jang of Pakistan says Pakistan will send troops to Iraq only after UN resolution, Iraqi government invitation, Arab states consensus, and national consensus [Orbat.com comment: suggestion to our friends the Pakistanis: if the Indians can Just Say No, so can you. This finessing you are engaged in will only anger the Americans, because everyone understands you can - and likely will - say the Iraqi government is not a real government, there will be many Arab states who will not agree, and your people are not going to agree]

T.D. Shifflet sent us the following news Sunday from Virginia Beach, VA, with reference to the US 2nd Fleet's Hurricane Sortie:

All 40 ships have returned to Naval Station Norfolk, or Little Creek Amphib. Base. The bulk returned Saturday, the remainder (16) on Sunday. 20 ships remained in port, do to being various state of repair. All the military bases are back in full operation, with the exception of Langley AFB. Langley suffered moderate damage to hangers & other non-tactical structures, that coupled with continuing wide spread power outages & fresh water issues dictated holding off on the return of the 1st TFW [this news explains why 20 ships remained in port - Editor]

Haartez of Israel reports the Israeli Defense Force has formed an Aliya Brigade [Immigrant Brigade] of older [40+] FSU military snipers for use in the Intfada; these are volunteers and many are said to be more highly trained than the IDF's snipers who undergo a 5-week course; by contrast the Soviet army's sniper course was for a year; Haartez also makes the interesting revelation that a quarter of the IDF's active duty strength is composed of immigrants [Thanks to contributor Gordon A. MacKinlay for the news]

Momentous events are underway in Iraq, but CENTCOM sees fit only to inform the American public that engineers from the US 1st ArmdDiv are supervising sewer work on the Baghdad district of Berea; the district has grown too rapidly for the capacity of the sewer pipes; the report is the latest news available on the CENTCOM site and is dated September 21st

BBC says UN agencies say most Iraqis are "desperately hungry" despite lifting of sanctions and a bumper cereal crop

BBC reports from Male in the Maldives that a second prison riot took place on Sunday last; security forces fired on prisoners wounding 18; many wounded have been shifted to hospitals overseas in an effort to calm the people - the first riot was triggered in the jail on Friday when two men died in questionable circumstances in police custody; eyewitnesses report on Tuesday that the security forces have been arresting opposition members and students [Orbat.com note: the Maldives tend to be peaceful and the security forces to be harsh, this degree of unrest is unusual for the country]

[ At 0130 GMT September 23] Debka.com makes statements so startling we suggest readers check the article for themselves; essentially Debka says US 101st AmblDiv has started interdicting the terrorist infiltration route into Iraq from Syria and Saudi Arabia, and has arrested the leader and his entire court of a tribe related to the Saudi royal family; US said to have list of 15,000 Saudis alone infiltrated or infiltrating into Iraq; in same operation detained 60 Saudis and 48 other nationalities, plus huge quantity of weapons and $16 million

Debka.com further says contrary to his assurances he would moved 3 divisions to border to interdict infiltration, Syrian President Assad has done nothing to stop the flow of jihadis from his country; US, however, is squeezing him by cutting the Iraq-Syria oil pipeline, depriving Syria of $1 billion a year; further, Syria could come under a US-led embargo for supporting terrorists, crippling its economy

As usual, we remind readers Debka.com is not a neutral source, it is to the extreme right of Israeli media in its hardline on the Palestinians and Arabs; many of its allegation - such as on Iraqi WMD - have proved false, but a surprising number have proved correct

Jang of Pakistan says brother of Hambali, arrested chief of SE Asian terror group Jamat Islami, was arrested a month ago in Pakistan and handed over to US

Just Another Day in Kashmir: 20 killed - 5 terrorists killed trying to infiltrate into Indian Kashmir in Poonch District, 5 trapped in a continuing firefight and are expected to be captured or killed; 4 terrorists killed in North Kashmir; 6 militants and 4 civilians killed in other incidents; one Indian soldier killed in Pakistan Army artillery shelling

CNN reports US government gives Congress 53 pages line-item description of how $20 billion requested for Iraq reconstruction would be spent; includes $100 million for witness protection program, $290 million to rebuild fire service, $9 million to modernize postal service, including establishment of postcodes; $67 million for 20,000 security guards for infrastructure protection; rebuild damaged power infrastructure, install 11 40MW turbines $2,900 million; crimes against humanity investigation $100 million; rebuild 26 prisons for 8500 inmates $99 million; rebuild oil infrastructure $2,100 million; emergency response team for pipeline sabotage incidents $55 million; drinking water for 90% of the popultaion [up from previous 60% $2.8 billion

US prepared to allow UN supervision of Iraq elections, but little other compromise

[At 0400 GMT September 22] Agencies report Israeli forces took control over the center of Jenin as part of the on-going anti-terror operations

Calm returns to the Maldives after rioting following the deaths of two Muslim prisoners in police custody; government orders arrests of 5 security personnel and says they will be punished to the utmost of the law without leniency

Just another day in Kashmir: The tally of killed is 20 according to Jang of Pakistan: 4 civilians killed by a booby-trapped VCR left outside a liquor shop, plus 28 injured, 7 seriously; 5 more civilians died at the hands of terrorists including a woman; an Indian soldier died in a gun battle with foreign terrorists, 2 of whom were killed; Indian security forces killed 6 other terrorists in three battles; 3 civilians died in Pakistani shelling across the line of control, no mention of any civilians killed in Pakistan Kashmir in Indian shelling

BBC reports Iraq opens up economy to 100% foreign ownership except for oil; six banks - including 2 on fast-track - will be allowed to buy any Iraqi bank; foreigners can buy any Iraqi business or partner with locals as they like; Iraqis and foreigners will pay maximum 15% tax rate; reconstruction surcharge of 5% will be levied on imports

CNN says Iraqi council member Akila al-Hashimi, badly wounded in assassination attempt, has undergone two surgeries at a Baghdad hospital, listed as critical but stable, and is conscious and in good spirits

Globalsecurity.org quotes the New York Daily News to underline the dangers of maritime terrorism; Al Qaeda is supposed to have between 15 and 300 ships, tanker piracy in the Straits of Malacca has increased, and an Indonesian militant group that fought with the Taliban is thought planning to sink a tanker in the Straits, causing enormous damage to world trade; Japan said preparing to bolster fleet in region; Globalsecurity.org notes US/NATO maritime surveillance system was designed to track several hundred Soviet warships, the system cannot work well against 120,000 merchant ships, many with fake papers

[At 0300 GMT September 21] MSNBC, other agencies report Aquila al-Hashimi, one of the 3 women members of the Iraqi Ruling Council and a leading candidate to represent Iraq at the UN - providing the UN agreed to let the Council assume Iraq's seat - was critically wounded when six gunmen opened fire on her car as she left her house in Baghdad

US asks ROK, Pakistan, Turkey for 40,000 troops for Iraq - figure comes from Debka.com and is higher that Orbat.com had believed; intense negotiations have been underway with Turkey, Pakistan may or may not be able to send troops because of domestic opposition; Orbat.com has no information on Seoul's position except there appears to be considerable opposition

Haaretz of Israel says senior Islamic Jihad leader Sheikh Abadallah Al-Shami, spiritual leader and spokesperson, has resigned from the organization due to a serious split in organization

Haaretz of Israel also says US makes clear to Palestinians any Arafat controlled government is unacceptable, and US expects Prime Minister to fight terror groups, not just negotiate ceasefires; newspaper notes there is a considerable erosion of US support for Palestine Authority

Jang of Pakistan reports Afghan sources as saying Taliban has been in control of a town in Urgan District near Pakistan border since August; meanwhile, US bombs a nomad camp killing a Taliban commander and kills 7 Taliban in another bombing attack; Afghan sources say 8 nomad civilians also killed; US refutes, saying only military casualties were inflicted

[0200 GMT September 20, 2003] Haaretz of Israel says UN General assembly condemns Israeli threats to kill Mr. Arafat, 133-4 with 15 abstentions

UN Security Council approves 15,000 troops for Liberia, 1000 police - unclear if police included in total - UN in talks with several European states for troops for initial one year mission; with India having said it cannot spare troops, Pakistan likely to be singlest biggest contributor

Meanwhile, Haaretz says Givati Brigade units enter Gaza; details Golani encounter with wanted Hamas militant who was gunned down in a face-to-face point blank encounter with the leader of the team who entered his house; both fell wounded, the Hamas man was killed by the other members of the team, the team leader survived due flak jacket

Also meanwhile Haartez says Israeli Army reinstates pre-ceasefire rules of engagement which allow security forces to fire on anyone entering a security zone

BBC reports Labor loses first by-election in 15 years with 29% shift in vote in one of Labor's safest constituencies; Government's Iraq policies are at heart of the loss

Media says surrender of Iraq's last defense minister, a largely figurehead figure, was negotiated with US and he turned himself in on the assumption he will be taken off the most-wanted list and see free soon without further prosecution; said the deal may be indication US encouraging resistors to surrender; BBC says the defense minister, six sons and three brothers had their picture taken with commander of US 101 AmblDiv at surrender

US 4th MechDiv arrests 58 men in Tikrit, said this is among the last of the pro-Saddam resistance in the city

[At 1830 GMT September 19] Debka.com says in their second day occupying Jenin, Israeli forces fought gun battles with militants, and dismantled two terror rings; one based at a local university was caught complete including commanders, facilitators, bomb makers and would be bombers

US CENTCOM reports arrest of Number 27 Iraq's Most Wanted, former defense minister Sultan Ahmed Hasham - like most important Iraqis he seems to have more than one name - Debka says he will be released after questioning and not prosecuted

[September 19, 1003] Indian forces had one of their most successful days in Kashmir, killing 8 militants in a single incident as they tried to cross the border in the Naushera area NW of Jammu; 6 others killed in other incidents, no Indian losses reported

US loses 3 killed outside Tikrit; the earlier ambushes at Khalidiah, subject of much media coverage throughout Thursday, resulted only in some injuries despite initial estimates of up to 8 US soldiers killed

Germany, France agree to help train Iraqi police; this is the first real sign of cooperation with the US they have shown [Orbat.com comment: nonetheless, President Chirac continues to issue unhelpful demands for a handover of power to Iraqis in "months" - we wonder why he did not apply the same formula in the Balkans and East Timor]

BBC reports Burundi peace talks have broken down and rebels are advancing on the capital

[At 2000 GMT September 18] Debka.com reports troops from the Golani Brigade have reoccupied Jenin in a bid to prevent anticipated terror attack; elsewhere a Hamas commander was killed and two suicide bombers plus their controller captured

Oil pipeline near Baiji suffers massive explosion, contrary to some reports, CNN says this was a feeder pipeline and not the export pipeline between Kirkuk and Turkey

4 - 8 US Troops Reported Killed Ambush Khalidiah

[At 1730 GMT September 18] Western correspondents say a US convoy was ambushed at Khalidiah west of Baghdad; apparently vehicle carrying 10 soldiers was hit by mine explosion; Al Arabiya TV first said 8 killed but later sad 4 killed; US command will not confirm because of the usual communications difficulties with Baghdad - as of 2000 GMT only some wounded have been confirmed but its unclear if they were in above ambush or another one that struck part of the same convoy later as it sped off from the ambush site
US partially confirms Debka.com story about six Americans and 2 Britishers in US custody in Iraq, but says only the prisoners claim to be US and UK citizens and that foreigners arrested in Iraq often have multiple citizenship claims; the prisoners are under interrogation
US officials discussing blood-money payments to families of 8 slain Iraqi police; Army denies 82nd AbnDiv troops involved were ill-trained, they had returned from Afghanistan and had undergone additional training in US; nonetheless, troops had just arrived in Fallujah a day previous for handoff from 3rd ACR which is relocating in the region
UK Guardian says Saudi Arabia considering 3 possibilities for its defense due worsening US-Saudi relations: acquisition of nuclear weapons, alliance with another nuclear power, nuclear-free Mideast

US Considers Withdrawing/Reducing Balkans Force

[0500 GMT September 18] UK Telegraph reports US considers withdrawing or reducing its troops in Balkans - 2500 in Bosnia and 1500 in Kosovo - to reduce pressure on its forces; battalion in Sinai also considered for withdrawal; Telegraph says US has been thinking of withdrawing Balkans force for some time but has kept it there for solidarity with Europeans [Thanks to contributor Gordon A. MacKinlay for news item]

London Times says East Timor police take over all policing except in capital; 3000 troops, 1000 civil staff, 500 police remain, troops due to withdraw next June [Thanks to contributor Gordon A. MacKinlay for news item]

Jang of Pakistan says Taliban and Pakistani sources in Miranshah area on afghan border say Taliban has captured 4 US soldiers; US and Afghan troops have intensified border patrolling and establishment of posts hre; no confirmation from US; also US says two attacks on US forces/facilities caused no casualties

Agencies report former Iraq WMD inspector chief Hans Blix says he believes Iraq destroyed its WMD after Gulf I as required, but was pretending to have them to deter a US invasion [Orbat.com comment: if so, this is not Mr. Hussien's smartest move: had he let the inspectors have free access, the US would have had no cause for war]

Times of India quotes Indian Army officials to say this summer has seen quantum junp in Kashmir insurgency; Pakistan-based camps are being revived with 3000 terrorists under training; compared to 130 incidents in September 2002, first half of the month this year has seen 180; big jumps recorded this year in July and August too; thanks to new radar and surveillance equipment detection has improved and kill ratio has increased to five infiltrators for every Indian soldier, but army says only 20-25% infiltration attempts detected

Globalsecurity.org reports the US sent more ground troops to ROK in the spring of 2003 than originally announced; two army battalion task forces from 1st MechDiv - 2/34 Armor and 1/16 Inf - were sent as well as 3/8th Marines; troops went for training but we can assume they also were a signal to DPRK not to try anything while US was heavily engaged in Iraq fighting [This is not a new report in Globalsecurity.org, however, we are taking note of it for the first time partly because it helps explain why 1st MechDiv did not deploy more troops to Iraq at the time]

[At 0300 GMT September 17] As expected, the US vetoed a UN draft resolution condemning Israel's threat to kill Mr. Arafat; 40 countries spoke out strongly against Israel; meanwhile, US looking to cut aid to Israel because under US law aid can be used only for territories held before 1967

US 2nd Fleet orders 40 warships including two carriers out of Hampton Roads, Virginia, and into Atlantic to avoid Hurricane Isabel which is expected to hit US East Coast late Thursday night; 25 other ships including another two carriers will ride out the storm at their mooring; USAF aircraft shifted to inland bases [Thanks to JSA Editor Craig Crofoot for following this story]

First 4 Iraqi Army infantry battalions of about 750 men each will be ready for duty in January 2004, total of three divisions to deploy by year's end [Thanks to contributor Gordon McKinlay for the news]

Media reports US has started to pay tribal leaders to safeguard Iraqi pipelines; this was the custom in Saddam's time, his fall ended the payments with well known results

US troops raid several places in Tikrit and other towns and arrest several suspects for pay rolling attacks on US forces; meanwhile, Debka.com says US forces have arrested 8 US/UK citizens in Iraq for attacks on US forces, hint they may have Al Qaeda ties

Indian security forces kill another leading wanted terrorist; sources say now 60% of terrorists operating in Kashmir are non-local and include non-Pakistan foreigners; meanwhile, India to raise reserve infantry battalions manned by former Indian Kashmir militants to provide them a profession and to help protect them against retaliation from pro-militant/terrorists forces

Pakistan moves troops to Baluchistan border and begins border patrols with paramilitary Frontier Corps to stock Al Qaeda [Orbat.com question: why was this not done earlier]

[At 0215 GMT September 16] Foxnews.com quotes a Hong Kong paper to say the PLA is moving 150,000 troops to the DPRK border; Chinese defense officials wont confirm numbers or details, but say move is in line with decision made years ago to hand over borders to army, and the Burma and Yunnan borders are also under army control; said that China may be pressing DPRK on its nuclear program or is fed up of raids for loot by civilians and soldiers on Chinese settlements [Thanks to JSA Editor Craig Crofoot for the headsup]

Update at 1100 GMT September 16: Washington Post sources note 300,000 PLA regulars and 150,000 People's Armed Police are already deployed near DPRK and it is probably some of these troops that are moving closer to the 1450 km border to deal with border crime and illegal immigrants from DPRK

Arabnews.com says in analysis piece that Indo-Israeli ties are directed against Muslim world and Iran in particular; that it is part of US plan to surround Muslim world; that under a to-be-announced $2.5 billion deal for ABM system India will offer Israel airbase facilities for attack on Iran's nuclear program [Orbat.com comment: Israel does not need Indian bases to attack Iran - it can now cross Iraq with US permission, and refuel over Iraq or Arabian Sea; what's important in this article is the perception rather than the reality]

Official Afghan sources say US SF troops have killed 15 Taliban in Afghanistan including a senior leader

USA Today quotes Globalsecurity.org as saying even with a UN resolution additional troops for an MND to replace 101st AmblDiv by February 2004 will probably not be available; well-trained forces with necessary transportation and logistics means North European troops, and these are unavailable for political reasons - Germany, France - or willing countries are overstretched; article says Pakistani troops unacceptable because they haven't proved able to handle extremists on their own border; Indian "Hindu" troops unacceptable in Muslim country; East Europeans like Bulgarians having problems because their equipment cannot stand up to the rough conditions [Orbat.com comment: when India was thinking of sending troops, it was for the Kurd areas because religion notwithstanding, Indian-Kurd relations have traditionally been good; also Indian Army is multi-religious and multi-ethnic]

[At 0215 GMT September 15] Senior Israeli officials say killing Mr. Yasar Arafat is an option; how much of this represents a split in the cabinet and how much is psychological warfare is hard to say; other officials say while assassination has been considered, only option on table is exiling him; US denounces assassination statements

Pakistan denies DIA censored report obtained by US non-profit group the National Security Archive that Pakistan helped Al Qaeda

BBC says Army stages coup in Guinea Bissau after president announces postponement of elections for 4th time; Army says it will remain till elections are held

BBC says peacekeepers reach Port Buchanan, taking control of the third and last major road leading from Monrovia to the interior; meanwhile, India tells UN it is unable to spare troops for Liberia [Orbat.com comment: in its usual too clever by half approach to diplomacy, India decided to tell the US it cannot spare troops for Iraq as a way of getting out of simply saying India doesn't want to help the US; it follows then that India can hardly send troops to Liberia; Indian Army has approximately 510 infantry, armor, mechanized, and CI battalions; also it has 200 good-quality paramilitary battalions]

Globalsecurity.org says DPRK may have obtained SSN-6 technology directly from the Russian design bureau responsible for the missile; ROK press has said DPRK working on missile with sufficient range to hit continental US; SSN-6 lacks that range so there is speculation DPRK may mate SSN-6 with its two stage Taepodong 2 missile; Globalsecurity.org says DPRK warhead may weigh only hundreds of pounds and not thousands as assumed because it has access to Pakistani warhead technology

[At 0200 GMT September 14, 2003] Unnoticed in the media focus on Iraq, Israel-Palestine, and Afghanistan, fighting between insurgents and Indian security forces in Kashmir has flared in August-September; no estimates on total casualties as yet, but on September 13 alone 23 were killed including 4 army personnel; estimates of total killed since 1987 range from 35,000 to 60,000; while fighting in the summer is normal, and will decline as the high mountain passes between India and Pakistan get snowed in, this summer seems to have been among the worst [Orbat.com invites knowledgeable readers to inform us on current developments in Kashmir]

Meanwhile, in a puzzling statement, the Director General of India's Assam Rifles, an army-officered CI force of about 40 battalions that has been responsible for CI operations in Northeast India since the last century, calls for action again countries harboring anti-India terrorist groups; the presence of these groups in Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Burma is well known, but senior Indian military commanders are not supposed to make political statements, particularly ones advocating military action against other states; question now is did the commander cross the line or has India government policy changed and senior commanders are permitted to make such statements, or has the government floated a trail balloon? If the latter, Orbat.com remains puzzled as to why it is through a military commander

Exercise Pacific Protector, a 4-nation maritime interdiction exercise aimed at DPRK's WMD, drugs, and technology smuggling begins in Coral Sea; other exercises planned with the 10-nation interdiction regime the US has been working on

Washington Post reports US Army requires $16 billon of spares to reconstitute vehicles, aircraft, equipment run down in Iraq; only $3 billion has been provided for; and already there is serious rumbling in US Congress - even among Mr. Bush's staunchest allies - that Congress has had it with the administration's refusal to come clean on Iraq costs; as an example, Posts says, Bradley IFVs get one set of tracks costing $22,000 every 3 years after running 2400 miles; 1/3rd of IFVs in Sunni Triangle are sidelined because in Iraq the Bradleys are running 1,200 miles a month and track replacement production is not keeping up; Orbat.com cites the Post report as another example of US unreadiness to take on Iran, Syria, or DPRK

US apologizes for Fallujah friendly fire incident, orders high-level inquiry; at funerals of slain Iraqi guards 2 CNN and AP media persons are beaten/roughed up as local fury persists

There may be a US buildup in Western Iraq planned: first 3rd ACR was deployed along with a brigade of 3rd MechDiv, now there is a brigade of 82nd AbnDiv in place of the 3rd MechDiv brigade, and we need to watch where 1st Bde, 1st MechDiv, which is deploying under 82nd AbnDiv, will go; plus we believe there may be National Guard battalions augmenting West Iraq forces

Reports that Najaf militia disarmament demand from US will be met by locals, negotiations continue

US and allied forces in Afghanistan find cave complex containing 35 tons of explosive and 20,000 pieces of ordnance; what could be of use to the Afghan forces was trucked away, rest destroyed

[At 0200 GMT September 13, 2003] Debka.com says Israeli commandos have withdrawn from the vicinity of President Arafat's Ramallah HQ; they had taken positions in two buildings

Debka's interpretation of the crisis is the Israeli cabinet is divided on the expulsion question and nothing will be done yet: however, Israel has decided to kill leaders and commanders of forces loyal to Arafat - Debka gives names of first 3 on hit list - whereas previously they had been immune and targeted killings were being carried out mainly against Hamas

Agencies and other media report US troops in Fallujah kill 8 Iraqi police chasing an armed vehicle; 3 Iraqis in escaping vehicle also killed; firefight took place at an American road block near the Jordan military hospital set up for Falluja residents; hospital personnel thought they were under attack and joined in, one Jordan guard killed; locals speak of thousands of rounds being fired by US troops, BBC says incident will only worsen situation at Fallujah, but BBC is nonetheless careful to note outside of Sunni Triangle there is peace

No details yet on a raid conducted by US forces at Ramadi near Fallujah, two US soldiers killed, several wounded, no information on Iraqi casualties

US, Indian forces now into second week of high-altitude exercises in Ladakh; now official the US has offered India the P-3 for MR

IAEA gives Iran October 31 deadline to comply with demand for additional inspections; US also steps up pressure; Iran refuses to meet IAEA demands and threatens to reexamine relationship with world body

Said US will be unable to keep more than 70,000 troops in Iraq next year because of the need to rest, train troops kept in reserve for Korea contingency; Orbat.com notes the Iran situation looks like getting out of hand; and while approaching winter will seriously degrade Taliban activity in Afghanistan, unless US sorts out this situation with Pakistan over the next few months then more troops will have to be sent in the spring of 2004

UN lifts Libya sanctions, survivor families to get $4 million each right away; US still maintains its sanctions [Orbat.com comment: US is looking to pressure Tripoli into more behavior modification, secret and other talks/contacts continue apace between Washington and Libya - Mr. Gaddafi is prepared to discuss all issues of concern in bid to normalize relations with US]

[At 0200 GMT September 12] Haartez of Israel says Israeli cabinet decides to expel Arfat but US blocks immediate expulsion; Israel says it will act at a time it deems best

Debka.com says Israeli commandos surround Arafat HQ in Ramallah - Orbat.com cannot explain how this news, if true, would square with media reports that "thousands" of Palestinians rushed to Arafat's HQ to defend him; Debka also says partial call-up of reservists under way to help beef up security

Israeli general said to have had doubts about the attack to kill Hamas founder: he was told a 2000 pound bomb might kill 20-30 bystanders, but that a 550 lb bomb - such as used - would not penetrate to ground floor of the house in question; intelligence did not say which floor Sheikh Yassin was on; in 90 minutes between information and arrival on target he either shifted to ground floor, or because he is confined to wheelchair, possibly was there all the time

President Musharraf of Pakistan partially backtracks, now says Taliban/Al Qaeda may be operating in tribal areas; first says Pakistan Army has effectively sealed border and militants who have been attacking Afghanistan this summer may be operating from Afghanistan itself; then says Bin Laden may be in tribal areas and army cannot seal the 2400 km border [Orbat.com comment: Mr. Musharraf is the President of Pakistan and top general of the army, so no one can stop him from saying what he wants; nonetheless, compared to the suave, polished statements that emerge from the official defense spokesman, Mr. Musharraf's BBC statements do Pakistan no good]

3 US soldiers wounded in 90 minute firefight at/near Fallujah when Iraqis attack stalled convoy

US SecDef Rumsfeld says extra multinational division for Iraq unlikely to result even if UN provides cover [Orbat.com comment: Mr. Rumsfeld is happily - and characteristically - seeking to undercut SecState Powell's efforts to bring UN into Iraq; Washington Post reports that Mr. Rumsfeld is also ignoring official US policy pushed by State Dept.and approved by White House to stop US dealings with anti-Iran terror groups; Mr. Rumsfeld's game plan is quite clear - he has accelerated hand-over of local security to Iraqis, soon the question of an extra division for Iraq will become moot

US Marines order Najaf militias to disarm, most say they will store their weapons; one, led by firebrand young mullah who has been creating much trouble for everyone apparently first said they would comply but now has refused; 400 strong Iraqi police force for mosques soon to start duties

France withdraws objection to UN vote lifting UN Libya sanctions after coming to agreement with Libya on UTA compensation; UN vote likely today

1st Brigade, 1st MechDiv in Kuwait, will join 82nd AbnDiv in less than 10 days; 2/3rd ACR redeploying to another station from Fallujah - we dont know if US has agreed with locals to leave Fallujah or another unit is arriving as part of the deployments/rotations taking place [Orbat.com thanks readers for the updates]

[At 0400 GMT September 11] There is no substantial news today; everyone is waiting for Israel's response to the recent bombings - the attack on Mahmoud Azhar appears to be part of the anti-Hamas pattern and cannot be counted as retaliation for the recent bombings

A 1000-lb bomb was used in the attack; again, to minimize civilian lives in the very crowded Palestine areas, a less than optimum size was used and again the intended target escaped

Israel to sell 3 AWACS radar systems to India, will be mounted in Russia origin aircraft

PLAAF might order 200 FJ-17s [FC-7, Super 7, Xian Long are all names used for the aircraft] which together with export sales and 150 firm orders for the PAF would reduce the $15 million unit price for the aircraft [Orbat.com comment: the price seems quite high for a lower-end clone of the F-16: we welcome any wisdom informed readers may have for us on the issue]

Two US soldiers killed in Iraq [we normally do not report the daily toll, but have done so because it has come after many days of no fatalities]

US now estimates 200 Taliban killed in recent offensives/counteroffensives; rumored that Pakistan is once again backing Taliban and this is how Taliban was able to mount its recent attacks whereas for the previous two years it had all but disappeared; also said US is ignoring the matter because of the need to ensure Pakistan's cooperation in the larger matter of the global anti-terror war

[At 1100 GMT September 10] CNN says Is.A.F. bombs house of senior Hamas leader Mahmoud Azhar, killing his 20-year old son and injuring him; PM Sharon cuts short India visit; Israeli security official wants Arafat out of picture

[At 0200 GMT September 10] Two suicide bombers killed 7 Israeli civilians in one incident and at least 8 soldiers waiting to go home outside a Tel Aviv military base in a second; 15 soldiers believed "gravely" wounded

Israel kills two Hamas activists including a bomb maker, spokesperson promises more retaliation against Palestinians

Abu Ala also demands west end isolation of Arafat as part of his conditions to become Palestine Prime Minister; Orbat.com does not see how west, in particular US, will agree to this

TF 3/17th Cav from 10th MtnDiv ordered to Iraq; 1/32nd Inf already ordered there; approximately 2000 troops from this division will be in Iraq now, much larger number deploying to Afghanistan [Thanks to reader Joseph Stefula]; US extends reservists tours; Orbat.com notes the denial in official Washington over the clear need for more troops continues unmitigated; Mr. Rumsfeld still wont approve expansion of standing forces

West African troops separate warring Liberian factions at Kakata, near Monrovia, 250 more West African troops due to bring peacekeeping mission to full strength of 3500

[At 0130 GMT September 9] No US troop fatality was reported in the last seven days; indeed, a 24 hour period passed without any attacks before an IED wounded two US soldiers in Baghdad; meanwhile, 1/22th Infantry captured 4 loyalists in Tikrit, they were wanted for attacks on US troops

2nd Light Infantry and 1st Greenjackets to Iraq; UK will add another 1,000 to this 1,200 in a few weeks; troops will provide for infrastructure security and reconstruction

Jang quoting AFP reports locals in Fallujah say US arrests 26 of Ajili tribe including its sheikh; say in firefight 2 US armored vehicles were destroyed by RPGs and one civilian killed; CENTCOM does not mention this incident, but then CENTCOM has not exactly been a fountain of information lately

Kirkuk-Ceyhan [Turkey] pipeline sabotaged for 5th time in a month; this time a valve installation was hit and 300 meters of pipeline damaged; each day's of shutdown costs Iraq $7 million

US-India high-altitude exercise Balance Iroquois underway in Ladakh; 19 US SF troops from various forces are guests of an Indian parachute battalion, Indian SF troops from other forces are also present; Indian press says many of the US troops have fought in Afghanistan and Iraq and their experiences are of particular interest; meanwhile, Pakistan blasts exercise as potentially destabilizing because it is taking place in a disputed region; also, Pakistan was not informed in advance

Indian press reports India close to buying 8 P-3 Orions from US; all long-range MR aircraft at present are Russian-origin [Bear and May]; deal will give Indian Navy quantum jump in Indian Ocean surveillance at a time PLAN is increasingly active in region; meanwhile, said that Pakistan has asked US for six TPS-77 air defense radars [thanks to Bharat-Rakshak.com for both items]

Abu Ala says he accepts Palestine Prime Ministership, but Washington has to promise to keep Israel to the road map or he will not serve

end of Libya sanctions still stymied by disagreement over French UTA victims' compensation, Libya has agreed to increase amount to $1 million each, which is still considerably less than $10 million for Lockerbie victims, but almost 20 times as much as was agreed on by French and Libya before Lockerbie deal was announced

[At 0230 GMT September 8] Israeli officials say its a matter of when the next Palestine attack takes place, not if; says all Hamas members are targets; Haartez says F-16 dropped the bomb aimed at Hamas founder; one person present says they were sitting down to lunch when they heard the aircraft and everyone made a run for it; Israeli helicopter attacks Hamas member's house where ammunition is stored, several injured in explosions

Abu Ala new Palestine Prime Minister, he is a moderate who may well be accepted by US and Israel, but he is also completely Arafat's man

India apparently prepares to deploy another SSM regiment, as defense minister announces sanction for 30 more Prithvi missiles that can be equipped with nuclear warheads; these will have a new solid fuel motor instead of the quite dangerous liquid fuel in existing Prithvis, giving the army a much quicker reaction time; Prithvi is a 250-km tactical missile; presumably the range will be reduced with the new fuel

US 4th Division captures the man suspected of the grenade attack at Baqubah hospital that killed 3 US soldiers; clearly locals are cooperating with US on law and order matters even in Sunni belt

Meanwhile ABC-TV shows first Iraqi 31-man civil armed force patrol in Tikrit working under US supervision; says months will pass before Iraqi unit can undertake missions on own

Washington Post gives lengthy report saying Al Qaeda has been seriously weakened overseas and has turned to Iraq; Orbat.com wonders if the rather nationalistic Iraqis will welcome foreign fighters any more than they welcome American troops

Atlantic Monthly October 2003 gives details of US interrogation techniques used against captured terrorists; isolation and disorientation are employed and little physical force; suspect has no idea where in the world he is or what is happening to him; one technique is to fake media stories saying his colleagues have been arrested and have talked, so he may as well may make it easy on himself; another technique is to ensure there is no routine; sensory deprivation also used; this may explain the many reported suicides/suicide attempts; Orbat.com wonders if US is still using its old interrogation technique of inducing shame in the suspect, this almost always worked well; Atlantic article says US officials claim they break just about everyone, but it does take time

BBC says Liberian government troops agree to move aside to let Guinea-Bissau battalion deploy to interior, removing at least one obstacle to the West African peacekeeping force expanding area under its control; Ghana battalion starts arriving, by Wednesday 3500 African troops will be in place [Orbat.com reminds readers the availability of these West African troops is a direct result of the US Africa Crisis Initiative that specifically imparts peacekeeping training and upgrades African battalions for deployment]

[At 0200 GMT September 7] Immediately after Palestinian Prime Minister Abu Mazan resigned, with every indication Mr. Yasser Arafat will accept the resignation, Israel attacked a house in which Sheikh Ahmed Yassin was meeting with other Hamas leaders - to plot more attacks, says Israel, to meet with friends, he says; Israeli sources say he escaped with minor injuries because after the outcry over collateral damage caused by an earlier assassination attempt the bomb used was smaller - 550-lbs vs 1000 lb -, and in the event unable to do the job; interestingly, Debka.com says a helicopter was used

Meanwhile, Mr. Arafat has won this round: instead of sidelining Mr. Arafat as Israel and the west wanted, Mr. Mazan has himself been sidelined by Mr. Arafat. Commentators say the road map is now in tatters; Israel says it will have to reconsider its decision not to exile Mr. Arafat; decision was made under US pressure

Yet to be seen if Prime Minister Sharon will leave as planned for New Delhi on Monday

Our report on US 101st Division seizing major caches of arms and equipment in western desert should also have credited 2/3rd ACR for what may be the biggest single haul, which included 10,000 artillery shells; meanwhile, 3rd Bde 101st Division discovered another major cache Saturday; brigade patrols area from Mosul to Syrian border

Afghan sources report five fleeing Taliban captured including a top commander who was wounded; US troops move into two more districts of Zabul Province as Operation Mountain Viper continues; US now says 84-95 Taliban killed

US-India 2-week military exercise to take place in Ladakh, area is 4000-plus meters altitude

Jang of Pakistan says Iran offers to swap top Al Queda prisoners for opposition figures in exile in US

Hindu of India says even with UN resolution India unlikely to send troops to Iraq because US has done nothing to help India on Pakistani terrorism [Orbat.com note: the Hindu is congenitally anti-American on intellectual and not ideological or political grounds; recently, for example, it implied US naval exercises off North Korea and plans to interdict North Korean ships were provocative - the transfer of missile technology by DPRK to Pakistan was not enough for the Hindu to concern itself less about DPRK's feelings; while stories such as the above must be treated cautiously, the paper does have a high standard of reporting.]

BBC says deployment of a 600 man Guinea Bissau battalion in Liberia interior has hit snags as at last minute it appeared no agreement was finalized between West African force, two rebel groups, and government

[At 0315 GMT September 6] For the 3rd day running, Jang of Pakistan gives reports of locals saying Pakistani troops are mounting helicopter operations against the Taliban on their side of the border; search for Bin Laden theory no longer favored; locals say troops are blocking border perhaps in conjunction with US operations on the Afghan side; Pakistan military spokesman says it is only an exercise and Army does not discuss these matters with press [Orbat.com comment: considering US-Afghan operations taking place against the Taliban; the Taliban came from hideouts in Pakistan, it's reasonable to assume under US pressure Pakistan is working to stop them fleeing back across the border and the Pakistan operation indeed has nothing to do with Mr. Bin Laden, as the Pakistan MOD has said]

Israelis kill another Hamas leader in commando raid, 1 Israeli soldier killed, 3 wounded

Agencies say Spain arrests Al-Jezeera reporter for Al-Qaeda ties

BBC says a company of 150 troops from 2nd Light Infantry will go to Iraq over weekend; battalion is in Cyprus designated as theatre reserve for Iraq

Secretary Defense Rumsfeld casually says in Baghdad one more division needed for Iraq; of course, wants this to be a non-US division

Germans say there is nothing to discuss in US proposals for UN force since Washington not willing to cede control

Iraqi interim Foreign Minister who is a Kurd Turkish troops cannot cross Kurd territory to support their proposed deployment to West Iraq sector, but if another maintenance/supply route can be designated than a deal is possible

Turkishpress.com says Turkish foreign ministry spokesman says Iraqi minister's statements are contrary to Washington's assurances and discussions Ankara and Washington have been having; reports US military official as says discussions with Turkish military are continued satisfactorily

Prime Minister Sharon of Israel visits New Delhi, Indian analysts speak of US-Israel-India alliance; [Orbat.com comment: first time in five decades that India has refused to let Arab nations dictate Delhi's policy toward Tel Aviv, this has become possible because so many Arab nations themselves have ended their complete opposition to Israel and because India has become more assertive as its economic power grows]

[A line in our story yesterday about the seizure of $6 billion in stocks and bonds plus other assets by UK police was cut off: the money is believed to belong to Colombian drug lords. Orbat.com]

[At 0200 GMT September 5] There has been a surge of US activity in Iraq, primarily in the 4th Division area north of Baghdad and around Tikrit, though 1st Brigade/101st Division has also conducted a large-scale operation in what looks to be the western desert; while the 101st recovered 4 arms caches including a dozen SAMs, 4th Division ambushed and killed 3 Iraqis placing IEDs near Baquba, engaged in a firefight with Iraqis who lobbed 6 mortar shells at its troop in Tikrit, capturing 4 suspects; a reconnaissance patrol responding to the mortar attack was ambushed and the division retaliated with BFVs and helicopters; a bomb-maker and 3 others were arrested in Tikrit on a tip; approximately 15 other persons were arrested in various incidents, large-scale operations

Meanwhile, Kurdish forces, acting on information provided by 3 captured Ansar al-Islam found three rubbish skips loaded with 1,200 kilos of explosives; one was on a boat set to destroy a Kirkuk bridge, on ewas on a lorry intended for a public square in Kirkuk, and the third, also on a lorry, was intended for an attempt on the life of Kurd Leader Talibani in Sulamanya; the suspects were found with explosives in suitcases in Kirkuk

The North West Frontier Province assembly was in an uproar Thursday about the alleged US-Pakistan operation around Bannu said aimed at Mr. Bin Laden; assembly representatives spoke of the violation of their "sovereignty" and said if these incursions were not stopped, they would spread to other agencies of the province [Orbat.com comment: last we heard, the NWFP was still a part of Pakistan, and if the tribesmen think they can continue playing games with Islamabad now that the US is on their case, they are mistaken]

Jang of Pakistan says Afghan sources claim 124 Taliban dead in current offensive which ended after 12 days; US still confirms only between 45-65 killed in last week, which excludes earlier totals; five Afghan soldiers said killed; US says Operation Mountain Viper continues because it is not confined to Zabul Province; other sources report one Afghan battalion has already been withdrawn from the battlefield

Germany, France reject latest US plan to expand UN role in Iraq, saying more must be done to return power to the Iraqi people and US authority must be curbed; US responds that the Iraqi people will decide through the ruling council when they want to assume power; Secretary State Colin Powell speaks softly, says he welcomes French, German suggestions if the US proposals are inadequate

Meanwhile Russia indicates it is willing to consider putting its troops into Iraq as part of a UN force; said Russian businessmen warn Putin that continuing hard-line on Iraq will cost them business

UK anti-drug authorities seize $6 billion worth of bonds and stocks in two raids in July and August but announced only now; said to be assets of Colombian drug lords

[At 0215 GMT September 4] Jang of Pakistan quotes local authorities to say Pakistani troops were airlifted to Bannu in NWFP in 25 helicopters and went from there to Miranshah which controls border routes into 3 troubled East Afghanistan provinces in a hunt for Mr. Bin Laden; NWFP authorities as well as Pakistan XI Corps [Peshawar] deny any such move, saying the troops are on routine exercises; an alternate rumor going around the area is that some US troops have been captured by the Taliban and the hunt for them is on [Orbat.com note: please remember news from Pakistan's frontier areas is often no more than rumor]

BBC reports Israeli aircraft attack Hezbollah positions in Lebanon

The war between Uganda and the Lord's Resistance Army based in Sudan seems to have flared up; Uganda is asking the US for weapons aid on grounds LRA is declared by US as a terrorist group

BBC reports that peace has come to Monrovia, though fighting continues in other towns; talk of a UN mission of 15,000 troops for Liberia with a strong mandate to restore peace; BBC says while only 30 US troops on ground, US is playing significant logistical role

[At 0115 GMT September 3] Jang of Pakistan reports a spokesman for President Karzai says 3 Pakistani military officers have been arrested by the US FBI in Afghanistan's Zabul district where Afghan, US, and coalition forces are engaged in a major battle with Taliban; Pakistan has denied any arrests; the spokesman says the officers have been taken to a US interrogation center in Baluchistan and that the world needs to know the result of the interrogation [Orbat.com comment: though buried deep in Jang's story list, this is a very serious development if true; we wonder if the story has any connection to the BBC report we carried yesterday saying Pakistan had arrested 3 army officers for links to the Taliban - for Pakistan to say it had arrested the men would save face]

A Taliban leader says 300 more reinforcements have been sent to join 1000 Taliban fighting in Zabul district of Kandahar Province; US Operation Mountain Viper continues, Tuesday there were no airstrikes and US did not report any casualties on both sides; US says 37 Taliban confirmed killed so far by start of 2nd week of fighting, Afghans say 90, Taliban say far fewer; US said chasing Taliban remnants, now down to groups of 10 or less, one group trapped in a cave

Brother of slain Iraqi cleric calls for US to leave Iraq to let "will of God prevail"; US says 60,000 Iraqi security personnel on duty or in training

Baghdad police chief escapes bomb assassination attempt

Jang of Pakistan says Pakistan will send additional troops to Saudi Arabia to replace American troops that have been withdrawn; as far as Orbat.com knows Pakistan's main contribution consists of one armored brigade and advisors in many areas of the military; again, as far as we know the Pakistani Brigade serves as one line of defense in the anti-coup arrangements of the Kingdom

Cleric Bashir sentenced to 4 years in Indonesia but court says there was no evidence to say he was head of the terror group JI; Bashir says he will appeal

Agencies report top Saudi official visits Moscow to discuss Saudi investment in Russian oil industry; Debka.com says Saudi asks Moscow to thwart US in Iraq, Moscow counters by asking for elimination of Saudi support for Chechan and other terrorists working against Russia

[At 0215 GMT September 2] 1/7th Marines [Najaf] and 1/4th Marines [Hilla] are extended to September 10, and probably to several weeks after due Najaf bombing; US believes arriving Coalition troops will not be able to settle down as well as handle the situation

Death toll now again said to be 125 in mosque bombing, Iraqi police say one dozen under arrest, all with Al-Qaida connections

Debka.com says US authorities say 4 car-bombs were placed around Najaf mosque, only one detonated; two other cars found and defused, 4th still to be found; two cars with explosives stopped and two arrested - Debka does not specify where in Iraq

Purported Saddam tape denies he is behind bombing

US launches Operation Mountain Viper Monday in Afghanistan, a fresh assault on Taliban holding out in mountain positions in Zabul Province; Taliban total killed of 80 not confirmed; in separate incident 8 Afghan soldiers killed, two taken prisoner, in suspected Taliban attack, 4 attackers killed

Xinhua says PLA to reduce by 200,000 more soldiers by 2005; total announced by China to be 2.3 million in armed forces, westerners say it will be more like 1.8 million

Israel declares "war" on Hamas, kills one more leader in 4-missile strike by helicopter

BBC says Pakistan defense officials say they have arrested 3 officers, Lt.-Col. and below, for ties to Taliban; Jang of Pakistan indicates this move is because of American pressure and US agents have access to Pakistan officers' files

BBC says new Afghan defense reforms approved, but warlords will disarm fully only when defense reforms implemented fully - no details given of reforms

Jang of Pakistan says former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in more trouble with Pakistani establishment for revealing, in interview with Indian journalist, details of a top secret briefing she received in 1995 from then Major General Musharraf, at the time Director of Military Operations; she said he spoke of plan to stage infiltration operations to seize Kashmir Valley; Pakistan military sources say she should not be discussing these matters, further, said plan was simply a scenario to show readiness of Pakistan armed forces

[At 0300 GMT September 1] Two US Special Forces soldiers reportedly were killed as Afghan and US forces continued to chase a Taliban force that has apparently retreated to mountain hideouts in Dai Chopan District of Zabul Province; US airpower in the form of 4 attack helicopters and 3 fighters continued the assault from the air; losses on the Taliban side are still in dispute - several actions have taken place over the last week, and different sources report different figures, sometimes referring to the same engagement as if it were two engagements [Orbat.com comment: if an attack by 3-400 fighters is the best the Taliban can do after spending two years rebuilding their forces, then indeed we must reckon them a spent force.]

Agencies say according to Iraq authorities, two car bombs totaling 700 kg of explosive were detonated by remote control in the Najaf bombing, one car was parked outside the mosque for 24 hours; rumored that Iraq/US authorities are looking for 3 more cars that have entered Najaf

Caution urged that death toll may not be as high as Iraqi estimate of 125 as many victims were double-counted; now said only 2-4 Iraqis in custody, not 12-19 most foreigners

US now more receptive to a rapid build up of Iraqi security forces; still remains concerned that personnel not fully vetted, and organized in separate agencies all over the country, may cause more problems than will be solved

Debka.com says US forces continue to search Mosul convinced they have Saddam cornered

BBC says Libya announces deal on UTA airliner bombing, representatives for families say deal is very close by not sealed; French Government says nothing

BBC says President Putin now says Russia not opposed to UN authorized, US led force for Iraq, but because of anti-Americanism in Russian forces, Russian troops will find it hard to accept US command

French hand over last positions to UN's 2,400 Ituri Brigade in NE DRC; with arriving Nepal contingent strength will be 4,000; except for Uruguayan battalion, all other troops in the brigade are South Asian: Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, India has an air force contingent with army troops for protection

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