News Archive

October, 2003

 

  • [0200 GMT October 29] Jang of Pakistan reports that an ailing former Afghan Mujahideen commander, Yunis Khalis, has declared jihad on the US and foreign forces in Afghanistan; Khalis led the Hezab-i-Islami [Khalis faction] during the war against the Soviets; Jang says most of his men later joined the Taliban; while Mohammad Omar, Taliban leader, and Gulbudin Hekmatyar, a renegade warlord wanted by the US, have also declared jihad, Khalis's edict makes no mention of them

  • Turkishnews.com says US wants Turkey to delay deployment of troops to Iraq in face of strong opposition from Iraqis; Jordan also opposed but Orbat.com unclear as to why; US suggests Turks and Iraqis talk directly; says Mr. Wolfowitz admits Turkish troop deployment will cause many problems

  • Meanwhile, USA Today says Bangladesh and Portugal, which had agreed to send troops to Iraq under US pressure have backed off and ROK says it is undecided

  • Military.com says the Baghdad bomb attacks will cause US to reassess troop withdrawal plans because security cannot be left to a government still not ready to take on the task; says US caught between equally unpalatable choices - to increase US troops would cause domestic problems, to emphasize security for US forces would isolate them from the Iraqi people, to use firepower against resistants would cause civilian losses and alienate Iraqis not opposed to US presence

  • Washington Times reports that France is changing its nuclear targeting strategy from deterring nuclear aggressors to one in line with US policy of targeting rouge states and those with WMD capabilities

  • CIA says the two men killed in Afghanistan over the weekend belonged to its Directorate of Operations and were former special forces; they were engaged in surveillance of enemy personnel

  • BBC says Liberia's rebel faction LURD has agreed to resume disarming after the country's interim president agreed to reconsider the distribution of ministerial positions, as demanded by LURD; says the rebel group had been turning away relief convoys from its areas because of the dispute

 

 

  • [0200 GMT October 28] Agencies say about 42 people, mostly Iraqis, were killed and 200+ injured Monday in 4 or 5 suicide bomb attacks in Baghdad; all are believed to have been carried out by foreigners, one Syrian passport holder captured; ICRC offices badly hit, also attacked were 4 police stations

  • CNN says 34 killed according to Iraqi officials, including 8 police and 26 civilians, one attack was thwarted and the perpetrator wounded and captured

  • Jang of Pakistan reports world leaders condemn the bombings, other reports say ICRC, which has operated 2 decades in Iraq without serious incident, is to withdraw from Iraq after the attack which left 12 of its people dead

  • Meanwhile, US 4th MechDiv commander says 2-5% of Iraqi resistance is foreign fighters

  • Haaretz of Israel says Israeli Air Force bombing Hezbollah concentrations in Lebanon after attacks on Shaba Farms area; meanwhile, Prime Minister Sharon says Israel has no plans to kill Mr. Arafat, but he has to be removed in the interests of peace

  • Just Another Day in Kashmir: 17 die including a terrorist commander of Hizbul Mujahadeen, one Indian soldier, 4 civilians, 10 terrorists, and one Pakistani teenager said killed by Indian shelling; India said the Hizbul commander was the group's operations chief, who replaced the previous commander killed in April, but Hizbul says he was a group commander and the operations chief is safe

  • Afghan commanders announce different figures for Taliban killed Sunday in encounter in Logar Province: one says 22 killed, another says only 10; the incident began when a joint patrol of US-Afghan forces was fired on

  • A CNN report which apparently refers to the same incident says that two American civilian security contractors for the State Department were killed in the fighting, but the State Department denies any of its personnel or contractors would be taking part in combat; suspicion is the men were CIA, but the CIA is referring enquires to State; Orbat.com notes it is quite common for CIA to pass off its people as State Department, without or without State's knowledge and/or consent

  • Agencies say DPRK has agreed to consider a US security guarantee and that both Washington and Pyongnag are considering another round of talks; a US Congressional delegation which was to visit DPRK's plutonium reprocessing facility at Yongbyang had to cancel its visit because of strong opposition from the US President

  • BBC says Nigeria and Ghana plan to intervene in the ongoing Ivory Coast crisis, where a deal to end the civil war appears to be unraveling; said that while attention was focused on Liberia, Ivory Coast events spun out of control

  • BBC says foreign oil companies have bid about $350 million for rights to explore for oil in Sao Tome, presumably royalties will be additional; this is a huge amount for this tiny, impoverished country and there is concern that as has happened in other parts of Africa, the sudden influx of money will lead mainly to increased corruption

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  • [0200 GMT October 27 Jang of Pakistan reports the Kabul government has moved against Dost and Atta, the two warlords in Mazar-i-Sharif, who have been periodically fighting each other; 4 top provincial officials have been replaced, and BBC  says the warlords' rival militias, the 7th and 8th Corps, will be combined under a neutral commander from Kabul, so far the rivals seem to support the merger of their forces

  • CNN says a disguised trailer containing 40 rockets was used to launch them automatically about 400 meters from the Rashid Hotel,  a coalition forces HQ; the improvised launcher held 68mm and 85mm rockets, 6-10 hit the hotel, 11 failed to fire, the rest missed; a US colonel was killed in the attack; BBC quotes Iraqi police say they stopped the truck towing the trailer but the driver fled just before the rockets started firing, the police say they were unarmed and unable to stop the man

  • BBC says Israeli Army blows up 3  13 story [Debka.com gives the height]  apartment buildings under construction in Gaza because Israel believes they were being used by Palestinian gunmen; 2000 people were evacuated from surrounding areas prior to the demolitions 

  • Jang of Pakistan says the Japanese forign minister, speaking in Cairo, says Japanese troops in Iraq would defend themselves if attacked; an initial contingent of 150 is expected in Basra later this year, to be followed by 550 in 2004

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  • [0400 GMT October 26]  Haaretz of Israel says Israeli Army evacuating village of 5,000 in Palestine because of bomb explosions during an earlier operation; Debka.com says move is prior to demolition of houses of terrorists and sympathizers

  • Agencies report Israeli Army raided two Palestine hospitals and took away a wounded suspect from one, and a healthy armed gunman from another; Palestine sources say Israeli action contravenes Geneva Convention; Israel answers that permitting armed personnel to use hospitals as shelters is against the Convention

  • US 4th InfDiv loses a SH-60 to an RPG near Tikrit; earlier there were reports it had been downed by a SAM; this is second helicopter lost to hostile fire since US declared end to major combat operations in Iraq

  • UPI says US will start training of Saudi Army for first time; till now only the National Guard and air force had American trainers

  • Jang of Pakistan says the first 27 German peacekeepers have arrived in Kunduz; aid workers ask why the deployment has been made to one of the safest places in Afghanistan instead of where the troops are urgently needed - Orbat.com notes the persons raising the question have answered it themselves; meanwhile, UN ceases aid operations in 4 southern Afghan provinces for concern UN personnel will be targeted  by anti-government forces

  • BBC quotes UN Undersecretary for Peacekeeping as saying Taliban have managed to reestablish themselves in several districts in Kandahar and Paktika Provinces, and that the consensus that has kept the warlords supportive of the Kabul government is breaking down

  • BBC says last Thursday Saudis arrested 600 persons suspected of links to Al Qaeda; the Kingdom is upset over the travel advisory issued by UK and says it wished it had been consulted before the warning

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  • [0130 GMT October 25]  Debka.com says US special forces in the past week captured several Al-Qaeda operational leaders in Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, and Yemen; interrogation has provided details of several planned terror attacks

  • AP says the British and Australian governments warn of expected terror attacks in Saudi Arabia and advise against non-essential travel

  • BBC says Afghanistan has begun to disarm militia in accordance with a two-year plan; 100,000 are expected to turn in their guns, but BBC says there may be as many as 400,000 militia in the country and considerable skepticism exists as to if the country's warlords will really disarm; meanwhile, an intial  contingent consisting of 30 German troops was expected to arrive at Kunduz in the north, representing the first deployment of NATO troops outside Kabul

  • BBC says Liberia's rebel LURD threatens to pull out of peace agreement because the interim president has not given it a sufficient share in the government; though 4300 UN peacekeepers are in the country with several thousand more expected, LURD and rival Model are said to retain control of most of Liberia

  • AP says that more than a month ago US troops raided a nomad village called Habbariyah in Iraq's Anbar province, some 130 km from the Syrian border, and detained 79 men and boys, almost all the males in the village; except for the mayor and an 81 year old man, all are still in captivity in Baghdad; US believes the village was involved in cross border movement of hostiles; the senior citizen says he was well treated in jail

  • Washington Post says a major change in the way the US Navy sends ships overseas is to take place; instead of task forces centered around aircraft carriers - as has been traditional since 1945 - forces will also be built around the US Marine Corps' amphibious assault ships, which carry a mix of helicopters and AV-8 Harriers; this will provide 24 task forces instead of 12, and permit shortening of current tours; 6 months is supposed to be the norm, but because of the war on terror, carrier groups have been spending much more time away; critics say the change does not address the main problem, which is too few ships for the new commitments

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  • [0100 GMT October 24] The US begins large scale troop rotations in Iraq in February, over the next 4 months the army expects to withdraw a net of 30,000 troops; by 2005 it expects to have only six brigades deployed there, a number it is said to have the capability of sustaining indefinitely

  • Military.com says the plans depend heavily on the fielding of Iraqi security forces, approximately 85,000 police, border troops, and militia type troops are now on duty; many, however, say too rapid a deployment of Iraqis could harm security in the long run

  • The latest figure Orbat.com hears for the Iraqi Army is that one battalion is on duty and another two are about to enter service

  • Washington Posts says US plans to use the Iraqi Army for reconstruction after the war fell apart because units did not surrender - they simply went home; by the time matters had settled down it became impossible to tell who were the Saddam loyalists; despite elaborate preparations for Iraqi units to surrender, none did; total only of 7,000 POWs, compared to 90,000 in Gulf I

  • Washington Post reports US 101st AA Division has started to withdraw troops from the Mosul area because the division is confident Iraqis can handle their own security; troops are being shifted to Anbar Province west of Baghdad, where the resistance is becoming entrenched and where the US has been moving reinforcements

  • US Marines expected to return to Iraq, possibly as early as February 2004; for the first time they will participate as peacekeepers, mission so far has been an Army one

  • Contrary to what Orbat.com had believed, supporters of the anti-American junior Ayatollah Sadr have been arrested in Karbala in connection with the killing of 3 US MPs; Sadr's faction says they have not reacted because they are not yet clear as to what is happening

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  • [0230 GMT October 23] Jang of Pakistan quotes Taliban and Afghan government officials as denying that any talks are underway for including Taliban in a coalition government; apparently all that has happened to now is that some Taliban officials including the former Afghan foreign minister recently released from US custody are in touch with Kabul; it is thought the former foreign minister, a moderate, might become a go-in-between

  • Teheran says it will never give up its peaceful uranium enrichment program, needed to fuel the 1-GW Bushire reactor and six others of similar size planned

  • VOA quotes General R. Sanchez, the senior US general in Iraq, as saying attacks on US troops have increased to as many as 35 a day, but that this was anticipated once the US began moving into the area west of Baghdad to bring it under control; he estimates there are 650,000 tons of weapons in Iraq - earlier the senior Iraqi Shia ayatollah, Mr. Sistani, had said the easy availability of weapons was the greatest threat to Iraq's security

  • Debka.com says 6 Qassam missiles were fired into Israel from the Gaza strip; a similar barrage late last week provoked the Israeli Air Force to launch several air attacks against Palestinian targets

  • A BBC report says a Russian aviation team says that the Indian Air Force's phenomenally high MiG-21 crash rate is not the result of poor maintenance, the team suspects contaminated fuel from sub-standard storage tanks may be a cause; BBC says 30 aircraft crashed on 2002, and 170 have crashed in the past decade 

 

  • [0200 GMT October 22] Agencies say Iran has told the visiting EU foreign ministers it will suspend uranium enrichment and hand over to the IAEA documents requested by the watchdog agency, which is particularly anxious to know from where Iran imported equipment that was found to have traces of enriched uranium; analysts warn that this progress is just the first step of a long process to bring Iran's nuclear program under control

  • UPI says Pakistan has agreed to station missiles and nuclear warheads in Saudi Arabia as part of a move to provide a deterrent to replace the US security umbrella

  • Times of India quotes Pakistani sources to say the destroyer Babur and a supply ship are participating in exercises off Shanghai with the PLAN, the first exercises the Chinese have held with a foreign navy

  • Jang of Pakistan reports the German commander of ISAF Afghanistan as saying in his monthly briefing that Taliban/Al-Qaeda activity  had increased - 300 people have been killed; he believes the Taliban has increased infiltration into Kabul ahead of Ramadan

  • CNN says Israeli troops have entered Ramallah and are hunting for Hamas militants; on Monday a total of 5 air attacks was launched, killing 12 Palestinians including militants

 

  • [1130 GMT October 21] CNN reports troops from the Iraqi Civil Defense Corps, backed by US and Polish troops, arrested 21 suspected on involvement in the Karbala killing of three US MPs, including the battalion commander; no casualties are reported and Iraqi sources say individuals are not being targeted - Orbat.com presumes this means the CDC is not specifically looking to arrest the minor cleric to whom the Karbala gunmen owe their loyalty
  • Agencies report DPRK has fired an anti-ship missile; this less-than-dramatic news is further reduced in impact when we learn the firing is part of naval exercises
  • The Mozambique contingent to Burundi we mentioned yesterday is part of the 2,870-strong peacekeeping force under the African Union; force was set up under 2002 peace accord to end fighting between government and 3 of 4 Hutu rebel groups - the last has not signed on; it is the first African Union peacekeeping force, with 1,600 South
    African, 980 Ethiopians and 290 Mozambique personnel; Orbat.com thanks contributor Gordon A. MacKinlay for the additional information
  • CNN says the UK, German, and French foreign ministers will be going to Teheran at Iran's invitation to discuss ways of reassuring the world that Iran's nuclear program is peaceful
  • Agencies say the Israeli Air Force launched 3 air strikes against Palestine targets on Monday, part of the response is to an earlier attack by Palestinians using locally made rockets, and one of the targets was a shed where the rockets were made
  • Radio Free Europe says a senior Taliban commander believed responsible for rocket attacks in Uruzgan province has been captured; an Afghan official says Taliban who are not accused of crimes are in touch with the government to cooperate, but gave no further details
  • Meanwhile, John Lancaster writing in the Washington Post says Pakistanis in the border belt are crossing freely - and frequently - to aid the Taliban in Afghanistan including as fighters; a source says that as the Taliban has rebuilt its structure inside Afghanistan there has been less need for tribal Pakistani help

     
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  • [0200 GMT October 20] Jang of Pakistan quotes Pakistan defense officials as saying the country is discussing with PRC the purchase of the FT-2000 SAM system to counter the new Indian AWACS; the officials say China is equally concerned that the purchase will upset the regional air balance; the FT-2000 is a S-300 clone; meanwhile, Pakistan has started looking at other advanced fighters in case the proposal to revitalize the F-16 fleet fails; another option is to accelerate introduction of the F-17 Thunder fighter being developed jointly with PRC
  • Debka.com reports 3 Israeli soldiers killed in West Bank ambush; names Palestine bombers said responsible for bomb attack on US convoy last week
  • CNN says President Bush is willing to provide DPRK with security assurances in exchange for DPRK abandoning its nuclear program, but the US will not agree to a non-aggression treaty with Pyongyang
  • CNN says Scotland Yard's SO-13 anti-terrorist branch confirms it detained two men in connection with a plot to kill President Putin while he is on an overseas visit, says the Yard confirms men were released, but will not confirm this was on condition they be returned to Russia 
  • BBC says 217-troop contingent from Mozambique arrives in Burundi, paid for by UK, the force is intended to help prevent ethnic violence
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  • [0001 GMT October 19] Associated Press says the 3 US soldiers killed in Friday's Karbala clash included the CO of the 716th MP Battalion, attached to 101st AA Div and the only US unit in the city; US-Iraqi patrol asked armed guards of minor cleric al-Hassani to go inside as they were breaking curfew, they refused; when a dozen US MPs including the battalion commander arrived to talk with al Hassani, the firefight began; the cleric has been shifted by his followers elsewhere; locals speak of him and his men as troublemakers
  • US Marine Corps charges 8 reservists from 2/25th Marines, now back in US, in death of an Iraqi POW, charges include negligence and cruelty
  • Washington Post says ROK says it will now send troops to Iraq, because of the UN resolution; no numbers have been revealed; Jang of Pakistan says President Musharraf again refuses Pakistan troops for Iraq desire resolution, says people of Iraq must want the troops, other Muslim countries must also send troops, and Pakistan public opinion must agree - Orbat.com has said earlier such preconditions make almost impossible sending Pakistani troops
  • US National Guard to activate a missile defense brigade with HQ in Colorado Springs, CO, US air defense HQ, with the first battalion in Alaska; our Russia editor Colin Robinson says the problem is its unclear the system under test actually works; 10 missiles will be purchased in 2004, 10 in 2005, and brigade will be complete by 2009
  • Israelis kill 2 Hamas activists including a commander, Hamas vows revenge
  • Bolivian President resigns due popular protests, proceeds to US, his vice-president takes over
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  • [1900 GMT October 17, 2003]  Haartez of Israel reports that a C-130 chartered from Peru has started evacuating Israelis and other foreigners from La Paz, Bolivia, because of the serious civil unrest in the capital; those opposing the ruling president say he must go, EU among others denounces what it sees as attacks against a democratically elected government
  • CNN reports 12-hour firefight outside Karbala mosque leaves 3 US MPs from 101st AA Div dead as also unknown number of Iraqis; NPR says fight started when joint US-Iraqi patrol attempted to enforce curfew and a previously unknown armed group took the patrol under attack; 2 Iraqi police also killed; Orbat.com notes that there is no evidence at this point to show the Shiite cleric Sadr is behind the firefight, though he seems a likely suspect
  • Meanwhile, Washington Times says Iraqi police detain many of Mr. Sadr's followers in Baghdad, for improper behavior at the Municipal building; Iraqi police say there is no room for extra-governmental armed groups
  • Agencies report at OIC meeting in Malaysia, Iran leader pledges not to build nuclear weapons and to reach agreement with IAEA over inspections of its alleged nuclear weapon facilities; also denies harbor ing Al-Qaeda
  • Associated Press says US is preparing to call up more reserves for Iraq in case sufficient international troops to permit US troops to rotate home are not found; the need for support troops is particularly acute

1900 GMT, October 16, 2003

  • In a surprise move, Germany, France, Russia, and Syria joined other members of the UN Security Council to unanimously pass Resolution 1511, which gives the UN a role in Iraq; previously it was thought the first three would abstain because of their unhappiness with even the revised US draft; indeed, CNN reports that they are still dissatisfied, but apparently the mood was for a compromise
  • France and Germany have already said they will not provide troops, Orbat.com notes that as anticipated, Pakistan - which earlier had been saying it would consider sending troops only under UN cover, now says it will not send them despite the resolution; India has already opted out under the pretense of having no troops to spare
  • US armed forces newspaper Stars and Stripes does poll - which it explains was not random but nonetheless useful - which says 34% of US troops in Iraq say their morale is low or very low, 49% say they will not reenlist; but 67% say the war is worthwhile; there is some controversy over the results because some are saying reenlistment anyway drops after a war and - in effect -64% are saying their morale is fine; others say the figures show a danger a large number of soldiers will not reenlist
  • BBC reports UN peacekeepers in NE DRC's Ituri Province are preparing to deploy to 3 towns outside the capital Bunia, both to prevent ethnic killings, and to open up communications routes to Mombasa Port in Kenya and to Uganda via Lake Albert, this will help economic development of the area as well as simplify UN logistics
  • Miami Herald says US briefed Cuban authorities about its intention to make Guantanamo  into a POW camp, and Cubans agreed to return any prisoner who managed to escape. As the Quo for the Quid, the US rarely grants asylum to Cubans who manage to escape into the base  

 

  • [0200 GMT October 16, 2003] Jang of Pakistan, quoting background sources, says that though the recent series of missile tests was publicly proclaimed as "routine", it was actually intended to put the US on notice that Washington's deepening security ties with India will not be without cost to America; the sources blast the notion that India's missile programs are indigenous and deny Pakistan's missiles are foreign; they say development of longer-range missiles will continue and do not confirm or deny Pakistan is working on MRVs
  • Agencies report PRC today successfully launched an astronaut into earth orbit and safely recovered him after 14 orbits
  • With Marxist insurgents stepping up their attacks in Nepal, yesterday 35 insurgents and two policemen were reported killed
  • Arabnews.com reports an unusual event in Saudi Arabia: a demonstration in Riyadh was broken up by the authorities as such expression of opinion is against the law, 150 were arrested, the demonstrators are said to have been calling for the release of prisoners including a woman; the woman's family denies she has been arrested
  • Haaretz of Israel says the US House passes sanction on Syria 398-4, and there is strong support for sanctions in the US Senate; previously the US administration had opposed legislative action because it did not want to complicate the issue, but the strategy has changed because Washington does not see Syria as sincere in the war against terrorism and on the Iraq issue
  • Associated Press says US last week captures 3rd highest leader of Anser-i-Islam in the north of Iraq
  • Meanwhile, Washington Posts says US warns Shia cleric Moqtada Sadr, the 30 year old firebrand who wants the US out of Iraq, to back off or he will be arrested; the threat came after his men got into a gunfight with an opposing faction; Post says US is not worried so much about Sadr's anti-Americanism including a suspected attack on US troops in Baghdad as it is about inter-Shia fighting, Sadr is thought to be behind many of the car bombings which may be intended to wipe out opponents
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  • [0130 GMT October 15, 2003] The Washington Post reports that Bin-Laden's son is increasingly in charge of Al Qaeda, and works out of Iran under the protection of a official military armed organization; US said to be worried that Shia Iran seems to have no trouble supporting Sunni terrorism; meanwhile, said that UK wont rule out force against Iran over nuclear program
  • Poland's senior military commander blames the MOD spokesperson for the false allegation that Roland missiles manufactured in France in 2003 were found in Iraq; the spokesperson apparently did not check the markings - which included the digits 2003 - with the military before making the announcement; he has since resigned
  • Orbat.com reader Debbie Corwin wants us to know that while the headlines on the CENTCOM site may not have been updated for many days, other Iraq news on the site is reasonably current; we thank her for the correction
  • Jang of Pakistan says Pakistan has test-fired a medium-range missile, and this third test marks the end of the current series - the Haft-4/Shaheen missile has a 700-km range
  • NPR reports a Baghdad poll shows 85% of the capital's residents oppose the deployment of Turkish troops to Iraq
  • CNN reports the US had advanced warning of yesterday's suicide bombing attack on the Turkish Embassy in Baghdad, and was able to increase the security perimeter, thus nullifying the effect of the attack
  • Reuters reports that the beleaguered Bolivian president is being protected from La Paz demonstrators by the Army; a report in Defensenews.com says the Bolivian Army withdraws its support from the President, but will continue to respect him; Bolivians are upset because their living conditions have not improved and the ruling president is seen as selling out to the US, the triggering event was a deal to sell the US natural gas, though the deal has been frozen, rioting continues in La Paz with many reported deaths
  • BBC reports Mr. Gyude Bryant has been sworn in as Liberia's interim president, he is a consensus choice and is tasked to disarm fighters and prepare for a free election
  • Arabnews.com reports Israel orders deportation of 15 Palestinians from west Bank to Gaza, and the Israeli Army invades Rafah for the second time; the deportees include 13 Hamas and Islamic Jihad activists but are not directly involved in terror activities Israel says, the orders are effective for 2 years; the deportees have 2 days to appeal, but the Isrfaeli supreme court has previously ruled such punishments are legal
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  • [0200 GMT October 14, 2003] The Organization of the Islamic Conference meeting in Malaysia called for the US to establish a timed withdrawal from Iraq; Orbat.com notes that the OIC offered neither troops nor money, both of which would expedite a US withdrawal, and instead blasted Turkey for agreeing to send troops; if all OIC has to offer is words, it can have no influence on Washington
  • Meanwhile agencies report the US has set a December 15 deadline for an election date in Iraq and for completion of the constitution; France is still not happy because there is no plan to give the UN more power, but feels the new US plan moves further than previous drafts; Orbat.com notes that France is still not addressing the question of why Paris supports the Balkans missions which have been running for years with no end in sight, while insisting on a very short exist strategy in Iraq, which has an ethnic  situation which as at least as complicated
  • The Times of India reports that Al Qaeda, in straits because of the loss of funding, is pitching to wealthy expatriate Kashmiris and promising to step up its activities against Indian forces in Kashmir; in another report the Times says that hounded out from Afghanistan and other countries, Al Qaeda and the Taliban are looking to gain combat experience in Kashmir and have been operating in small numbers; Orbat.com notes that while the facts as stated are correct, clearly India is pushing Washington's Al Qaeda/Taliban buttons to get more support from Washington;  we'd also like to remind Al Qaeda of a statement made by an Indian Army chief some years ago: "We took 40 years to pacify Nagaland, we're just getting started in Kashmir - and Nagaland was of no importance compared to Kashmir".
  • The UN Security Council approves 15-0 an expansion of Afghan peacekeeper deployments outside of Kabul; BBC say critics charge it is too little too late; meanwhile, the CJTF-180 newspaper published under the aegis of CENTCOM says according to a new decree from Kabul, no warlord can stand for elections, though it remains unclear how the central government can enforce this; Orbat.com asks readers to remember that Afghanistan has never been a unitary state until the Communists and then the Taliban attempted and failed to turn it into one, so we should not get too worked up about Kabul's lack of authority over the provinces - it has always been thus
  • In a surprise move, according to BBC Riyadh announces it will hold elections to a council next year, the country has never had elections at any level since it was formed in 1932; Orbat.com asks if one may speculate this is a definite payoff for the US from the invasion of Iraq?
  • Turkishnews.com reports that the Turkish military has warned it will repel with force any Kurd attacks on its peacekeeper convoys or rail movements through Iraq; the military says it has the approval of the US to deploy and it needs nothing else; discussions on the Turkish AOR continue, while the Turks want Tikrit or North of Baghdad, the Iraqis are opposed as this is too close to the Kurd areas, the US wants the deployment to be west of Baghdad
  • Meanwhile, Turkey says it is prepared to command a division but its own contribution will be a brigade; conversely, sources say the 10,000 figure given out is only an estimate, figures as high as 20,000 have been mentioned

 

  • [0100 GMT October 13, 2003] Jang of Pakistan says the Taliban claim to have captured Khak-i-Afghan District in Zabul Provine of Afghanistan and say they have appointed their own representative to rule the district; heavy fighting has been taking place in the province for some weeks now; Taliban say they killed 13 militiamen and captured 10 others in another district from where they withdrew after their initial victory; in another incident Taliban claims to have captured the uncle of Governor of Ghazni province and his two sons, and are holding them for a prisoner swap
  • US CENTCOM made the first update to its page after September 29, when on October 10 it carried a story about the US 101st AA Division helping to reopen 800 schools in Nineveh Province of Iraq
  • We wrongly reported yesterday that the Israeli Army had withdrawn from Rafah in the Gaza Strip after finishing its punitive expedition; Haaretz of Israel says most troops were withdrawn but the operation continues; said Israeli commanders were surprised by the extent of the Palestinian firepower they encountered
  • Washington Post says US has located $3 billion belonging to Mr. Saddam Hussein in Syrian banks and that efforts to get the Syrians to seal the accounts have been unsuccessful
  • Two Iraqi suicide bombers were forced to prematurely detonate their car bomb, 100 meters from the intended target which is a building housing American and foreign officials, when Iraqi police fired on the car as it tried to crash through protective barriers; six other Iraqis were killed

 

  • [0100 GMT October 12, 2003] Agencies say Syria has threatened retaliation if Israel attacks again; BBC says its unlikely this will include direct military action as Syria cannot take on Israel, speculates that Hezbollah may be unleashed
  • US administrator meets Iraqi ruling council for second day in a row to gain acceptance for Turkish troops deployment; BBC says both sides want compromise - Americans want to show world they listen to Iraqis, Iraqis want to avoid situation in which the troops are deployed anyway without their approval
  • Meanwhile, arabnews.com says at the Organization of Islamic States conference in Malaysia, Turkey is isolated because other OIC nations want US to leave and oppose Turkish deployment; Turks say they would like UN mandate but now its important to act
  • Associated Press says a Guinea-flag tanker with 1800 tons smuggled Iraqi oil was seized by Royal Marines operating from HMS Sutherland and by the US Coast Guard; Iranians have been firing on smuggling ships and US says oil smuggling has declined
  • Times of India says Indian Army chief General N. Vij alleges Al Qaeda is operating in Kashmir; rules out joint patrolling with Pakistan - as suggested by Islamabad - to stop militants because they are trained, equipped, and infiltrated across border by the Pakistan Army, and their training camps have been merged with Pakistan Army camps [presumably to give impression they have been shut down]; says army is having success in stopping infiltration
  • Israel starts pull-out from Rafah in the Gaza Strip after punitive raid
  • Haartez of Israel says Der Speigal of Germany says Israel plans air attacks against Iranian nuclear installations; Mossad was given go ahead for planning 2 months ago; Israel has found 6 nuclear installations including 3 previously unknown; pilot is quoted as saying mission would be complicated but possible
  • Meanwhile, Los Angeles Times say US officials have said Israel has modified Harpoon anti-ship missiles carried by its 3 German-built diesel subs  to carry nuclear warheads, says US has done this to warn Mideast countries of Israel's nuclear retaliatry capabilities
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  • [0230 GMT October 11, 2003] Military.com reports the US Army is to experiment on its 3rd Mech and 101st AA Divs by giving them five combat brigades instead of the current five, but without increasing manpower; the argument is fewer men are needed in each unit because of better technology, but units have already been reduced in size under the Army XXI doctrine
  • The Pentagon has steadfastly refused to increase the Army ceiling above the current 480,000 troops and this new experiment seems, to Orbat.com, just another futile attempt to avoid the obvious; in addition to the official strength, there are 120,000 army reserve and Guard troops on active duty, and several tens of thousands of troop billets are filled with civilian contractors; the true strength is closer to 700,000, but in our opinion there is a need for at least 200,000 more regulars, and the reservists need to go home; meanwhile, this experiment will take 20% of the US Army's divisions off-line to some degree while the experiment is underway
  • Turkey reacts unhappily to Iraqi rejection of Ankara's troop offer, an official quoted in Turkishpress.com seems to suggest Iraqi leaders told Turkey the troops were welcome but then began to speak differently without warning; Defensenew.com says there are also differences where the Turks should serve: Ankara wants an area around Tikrit, just south of the Kurdish territory, the US wants the Turks to cover West Iraq from Baghdad to the Syrian border
  • India, Israel, Russia finally sign contract for Phalcon/Il-76 AWACS, supposedly 3 are to be built but surely a minimum of 5 are needed to allow for training, attrition, and long-term overhaul; incidentally, the engines are a high-power version from Ukraine
  • Jang of Pakistan says the Pakistan Army continues upping the ante in its drive to force the border tribes of South Waziristan to give up Al Qaeda fighters the tribesmen have been sheltering; one source says up to 52 tribesmen have been arrested; the Pakistan Army has started sealing properties belonging to the tribes in question, has seized movable property,  and has threatened to start demolishing houses; apparently this is all permitted under the laws that apply to the Frontier Province; Pakistan Army has also sealed and shuttered marketplaces frequented by the tribes, and said anyone entering will be arrested; locals plead their adherence to Islam, which says true believers cannot be handed over if they have asked for shelter; Pakistan Government is unimpressed, saying the customs of the Frontier Province do not apply to foreign fighters
  • Haartez of Israel says 7 Palestinians including 2 children have died and 60 have been wounded in the Israeli Army's raid on Rafah refugee camp; raid is expected to continue for some days more; at least 2 arms smuggling tunnels from Egyptian territory have been destroyed, and 3 houses demolished as a punishment
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  • [0200 GMT October 10, 2003] A German newspaper says the US is considering ABM defenses for Europe given Iran's increasingly capable missiles; Teheran has a satellite launcher under development which could be converted to an ICBM; US feels a coordinated NATO approach would take too long and is said to be working on a piecemeal approach, negotiating with individual countries, and would start deployment in some of the new NATO member states
  • Los Angeles Times  reports US offers Iraqis $500 for each SAM turned in, has acquired 320, has found on its own and destroyed hundreds more; there are hundreds thought to be in the country; Jang of Pakistan says that though the US admits to 6 attempts to bring down aircraft landing at Baghdad IAP, aid agencies say there have been at least 19 attempts
  • Jang of Pakistan says US commander in Iraq says there are so many weapon sites in Iraq that they cannot all be guarded, and the country is awash in weapons - Orbat.com notes recently an ammunition storage area in Mosul was turned over to the new Iraqi Civil Defense Corps, and the area was described as bigger than the city of Mosul; to protect it there is one Iraqi company that also has other high value targets to defend
  • Agencies report ceasefire in Mazar-i-Sharif, Afghanistan, after a central official intervenes; varying reports on death toll, estimates are up to 80 killed; fight may have started over land or water, both are common triggers for disputes in the region
  • Washington Post reports China will launch its first man into space Wednesday 15th October, a 3-crew capsule will have a single crewman do one orbit of the earth; there is concern the Chinese, in their race to be the third in space, have not paid sufficient attention to safety
  • Said US plans to station Turkish troops in West Iraq, far from Kurd zone, and is working to get Iraqi agreement; some warn that despite Turkish parliament approval, deployment to Iraq is not a done deal
  • BBC says Pakistan cracks down on a border tribe for harboring Al Qaeda; though tribal areas are autonomous, last year Pakistan government reached deal with tribes they would not protect "outsiders" - Orbat.com comment: none of the news about Pakistan's North West Frontier Province and Baluchistan makes sense unless we recall these areas have never been fully integrated into British India or its NW successor, Pakistan; they have their own customs, laws, and administrations and did not - till 9/11 changed things - answer to the federal government in Islamabad
     
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  • [0300 GMT October 9] Haartez of Israel says intelligence believes 5 terror groups from Nabulus and Jenin are working to send suicide bombers into Israeli territory; after the current holiday 4 reserve battalions are to be activated and sent to the Jenin, Tulkarm, Qalqilyah and Ramallah sectors; two battalions under training are also reinforcing the Palestine border, and battalions engaged in training recruits are also being pulled out for border duty; in part, the new influx of reinforcements is to free other battalions sent earlier that need to resume training
  • Haartez also says Israel is to resume expulsion of families and accomplices of terrorists after a legal review is completed; the number of people in administrative detention is down because of releases as part of the agreements with the Palestinians, but new warrants are under preparation  
  • US puts freeze on attempt to get UN authorization for Iraq peacekeepers, Secretary General Anan says the UN's role is so limited as not to be worth the risk to its personnel
  • Meanwhile agencies report that Iraq's governing council rejects idea of Turkish peacekeepers - Iraq was part of the Ottoman Empire for 400 years and Turkey has repeatedly intervened against the Kurds in the north; while US knew this would happen, its game plan to get the Turks accepted is not known to Orbat.com at this time
  • Also meanwhile US forces arrest 112 suspected Iraqi resistants including a general of air defense forces said to be organizing anti-US attacks; demonstrations in Baghdad after US arrests two clerics for arms possession and fomenting hatred against US troops, locals say US forces planted the arms
  • Jang of Pakistan says 60 killed in factional fighting between militias of Dostum and Mohammad Atta in Mazar-i-Sharif; both sides appear reinforcing their positions
  • BBC says UN peacekeepers confirm 65 killed in NE Ituri province in DRC including 40 children
  • US Marine Corps activates reserve Light Attack Helicopter Squadron 773 for Afghanistan duty; 1/25th Marines from reserve 4th Division activated for Okinawa tour to relieve active troops back from Iraq; a company of the 4th Light Reconnaissance Battalion, another reserve unit activated for Iraq have been deployed again, this time to Okinawa - thanks to reader Joseph Stefula for the news about how the Marines are using reserves to meet the growing demand on US forces worldwide
     

 

  • [0230 GMT October 8, 2003] Haartez of Israel reports a limited mobilization of reservists is taking place, mainly to reinforce units interdicting illegal Palestinian movement from West Bank into Israel
  • Meanwhile, Haartez says Israel publishes a map pinpointing houses of Hamas and other terrorist leaders living in Damascus, both to show world extent of Syrian-hosted terror networks and to send a "I know where you live" message to Hamas and Islamic Jihad leaders
  • Further, Israel reinforces Syrian border, but Orbat.com notes that one of the reinforcements in Northern Corps area is an artillery battery, and if Haartez is discussing batteries, the reinforcement cannot be large
  • Turkishnews.com says the Turkish Parliament voted yesterday 358 to 183 to send 10,000 troops to Iraq; Orbat.com notes this is the first break the US has gotten since it defeated Mr. Hussein's army; if the Turks go to Tikrit US 4th Division can return home next spring and the replacements beings ent will become a net increment to forces available to the US; nonetheless, there are several shoals that have to be navigated, not least that the Kurds do not want Turkish troops in their region
  • Military.com quoting Associated Press says US reinstates ousted police chief of Beiji, Iraq's main petroleum refining town about 240 km N of Baghdad on the Mosul road, after violent demonstrations and a heavy, 75-minute attack on the police station defended by US troops; the chief had been removed 5 months earlier, but his US nominated replacement upset the locals; though the riots and attack appear instigated by the Fedayeen militia loyal to Mr. Hussein, US apparently decided local grievances were legitimate; the old police chief moved quickly to quell riots after his reinstatement, meeting with local tribal leaders
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  • Orbat.com had wondered what the size of the proposed Afghan Provincial Reconstruction Teams was, noting that if they were not large enough, they'd be able to do no more than provide self-security; we learn the proposed German PRT at Kunduz will include 450 troops
  • [0230 GMT October 7]  AFP reports that in a critically important decision, NATO decided to expand its mission in Afghanistan; as a first step Germany will establish a Provincial Reconstruction Team at Kunduz in the North, thus expanding the ISAF's mandate beyond Kabul for the first time; discussions have started on the extra number of troops required, 2,000 - 10,000 is being mentioned, though NATO is feeling overstretched because of Balkan commitments and Iraq deployments by some key members such as the UK
  • Meanwhile, Jang of Pakistan says Afghan officials claim to have killed Mullah Omar's aide 10 days ago in fighting in the southern province of Uruzgan; he was a member of the shura - or ruling council - set up by the Taliban in June; Taliban sources have not confirmed the aide's death but say they have not been in touch with him for 2 weeks; earlier, Taliban sources admitted to losing another senior commander
  • Also, several attacks are reported on US forces on the second anniversary of the US intervention, US reports no casualties
  • In another important development, Turkishnews.com, an official agency on the web, says that Ankara has approved the deployment of 10,000 troops, probably to Tikrit, and Parliament is to vote on the measure, perhaps as early as today; it is believed that though Turkish public opinion is against the deployment, the Government has a comfortable majority in parliament and wants a deployment to regain lost influence in Iraq as well as mend fences with the US
  • VOA says Moscow's appointee to Chechnya appears set to win the election held on Sunday, but human rights groups boycotted the poll as unfair, and the stated turnout of 80% raised suspicions among the media because they observed a low turnout; further, the Chechen rebel leader Aslan has said he will not accept the result of any poll and will continue the 10-year insurgency
  • BBC reports a Pakistani Sunni militant leader and parliamentarian was ambushed and killed in Islamabad - Orbat.com requests anyone who can discuss the significance of this incident to please write in
  • BBC says UN peacekeepers in the NE Congo region of Ituri report a massacre of 23 persons 100 km from Bunia, the first large-scale killing in a civil war that has claimed an estimated 50,000 lives since the UN began lareg scale deployments; it now has 3500 troops in the region

 

  • [0030 GMT October 6]  Haartez of Israel says Prime Minister Sharon will consult his security chiefs on a decision to expel Mr. Arafat; sources close to Mr. Sharon say expulsion will not be a good idea, suggest complete isolation may work more to Israel's interests; meanwhile, human shields arrive to protect Mr. Arafat's HQ; Israel says he continues to funnel money to terrorist groups despite denials
  • Israel struck from the air at what it says is a terrorist training camp outside Damascus, says will attack again if neccessary; Syria asks for and gets urgent UN Security Council meeting on Sunday; France, UK among members that condemn the attack, separately Germany, Egypt also condemn;  US unhappy about the escalation but says Syria is on the wrong side of the terror war
  • In rehearsals for Indian Air Force anniversary, an Il-76 tanker refueled two Su-30s, the first public demonstration of air refueling; Orbat.com find interesting that India should use what is already its longest range fighter aircraft, we may be reading too much into this, but the only reason a Su-30 would need refueling is to strike targets in China or in the Indian Ocean, far from India's shores
  • Times of India says Bush Administration thought to approve sale of 60 attack helicopters including Cobras to Pakistan, to fight Taliban/Al Qaeda in Pakistan's border areas; Orbat.com wonders if the figure 60 will also include light and utility helicopters; Times of India adds Pakistan hints US has approved upgrading of its 28 F-16s - Orbat.com thinks there are less - and transfer of 12 Belgian F-16s to bring the fleet strength back to 40
  • Dawn of Pakistan says Pakistan security forces destroyed a terrorist camp in the NWFP region to show US on eve of Armitage visit that Pakistan means business in war against terror
  • CNN says ex-Iraqi soldiers rioted for a second day because they did not receive their one-time $40 payment after being demobilized; US officials say Baathists spread rumors that ex-soldiers would not get the money, but from the CNN report it seems clear that the Iraqis were told to come back at least once, and perhaps more times; Orbat.com remains unclear why only a one-time payment is being made - is $40 sufficient to resettle an army man and to provide an incentive for him to stay peaceful
  • BBC says Teheran expresses optimistic after IAEA talks start, Teheran believes outstanding issues can be resolved to the satisfaction of both sides; but IAEA apparently does not reciprocate the enthusiasm, and has said nothing so far
  • BBC says Mr. Richard Armitage, Deputy US Secretary for State, on his Afghanistan visit pledged an additional $1.2 billion worth of aid for $1.2 once it passes Congress, on top of $600 million already pledged; BBC notes sharp deterioration of security in Afghanistan, with 300 people being killed since August, Afghan government says Pakistan is not doing enough to eliminate terrorists from its territory
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  • [0130 GMT October 5] The French Government has said no Roland SAMs of the type found in Iraq by Polish troops have been manufactured since 1993; Poland has apologized to France for the incorrect report [Thanks to reader Ivan DeBono for the correction]
  • BBC says Israeli helicopters fired missiles at two houses in Palestine territory within hours of a terror bombing in Haifa killing herself and at least 19 others; the attack is expected to increase pressure on Prime Minister Sharon to eliminate Mr. Arafat, though BBC says Israel needs "green light" from US to proceed and so far the US has refused; BBC says Palestinians realize Mr. Arafat's existence now hangs by a thread
  • Indian forces killed 17 terrorists in a 24-hour period ending Friday, again Israeli made sensor technology is mentioned as being an important factor
  • CNN quotes US WMD inspector David Kay to say two Iraqi scientists were shot - one survives - for cooperating with the US, now interrogations are conducted outside Iraq when necessary and scientists resettled if required; says two biological weapons testing facilities have been found, and it is possible tests on human beings were conducted
  • Indian and US Navies conduct fifth exercises in Malabar series, two US SSNs including Pasadena and the Indian SS Shalki are participating aside from Orions and surface warships; meantime, an Indian missile frigate INS Tarangiri has docked in Washington DC, becoming the first Indian warship to visit the US capital [visit report from Times of India]
  • US military writer David Hackworth - a former army officer - writing in Military.com says the USAF has awarded 50,000 medals for the recent Middle East operations, and the Army has awarded 5,000 Bronze Stars alone; the US Marine Corps, by contrast, has, has given 71, including only 15 for valor - the Marines had half as many troops in Iraq as the US Army; Hackworth also says a 700 person aviation unit was awarded Bronze Stars and Commendation medals for almost half the unit
  • Times of India reports the senior Muslim cleric in Delhi says the 9/11 attacks were "Not a matter for regret" and also defended Mr. Bin Laden [Orbat.com note: This particular cleric has been issuing inflammatory statements for years, and though there are laws in India against spreading religious hatred, the Government of India has not acted him for fear of angering Indian Muslims]

 

  • [0200 GMT October 4, 2003] Polish troops near Hilla have recovered 4 Roland SAMs identified from serial numbers as being of 2003 manufacture, indicating France or Germany was actively exporting weapons to Iraq even as the US prepared to invade, or perhaps even after the war began; the Poles were led to the SAMs by locals [Thanks to Tom Otlaw for the news]
  • BBC says USAF general says fighter pilots and ground controllers  are being screened, trained, and conditioned to shoot down civil airliners in case of a September 11 repeat, and that precautions are being taken to ensure the order, if issued, is from the highest authority; aircraft could  be shot down by fighters or SAMs
  • NPR reports US experts now concede 2 trailers found in Iraq are more likely designed for fuelling weather balloons than as mobile biowar labs
  • Jang of Pakistan says most of the men killed in the operation in S Waziristan were Chechans and other foreigners, but most of the men captured seem to be Pakistanis and Afghans; one local source estimates as many as 20 fighters were killed; uproar in Pakistan parliament at operation, which is seen as violating rights of the tribal areas; Pakistan defense sources says more such operations could be conducted
  • New plans now call for three US National Guard brigades [30, 39, and 81] to stay in Iraq for a year instead of earlier plans to send two brigades for six months and replace them with another two [Thanks to Joseph Stefula for the news]
  • A UN official warns that Liberian violence could escalate in coming weeks till the UN force is strong enough to impose peace and militia disarmament all over the country; reports say that life in Monrovia has improved much for the better after international intervention
  • Haartez of Israel reports Israel is to buy 15 million cubic meters of water annually from Turkey and has agreed to purchase 60 million cubic meters from desalination plants [Orbat.com comment: this news may appear to have nothing to do with defense, but in reality is a major development because water is increasingly short in the Middle East and it has been anticipated this could cause makor problems between regional countries; Israel's moves would seem to reduce the potential for crisis]
  • Haartez also reports Israeli Army cancels Merkeva 5 MBT, saying with the end of the Iraq threat the version 4 is good enough to meet any threat
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  • [0200 GMT October 3] Jang of Pakistan reports 200 Pakistan Army troops plus Waziristan Scouts attacked a village where information said Al Qaeda were positioned; they were  moving back and forth between Afghanistan's Paktika Province, where US-Afghan forces are pursuing Taliban, and the Pakistan border areas; 2 Pakistani troops reported KIA; Cobra gunships used; locals say US SF troops seen in area but all previous reports have been denied by US and Kabul
  • Arabnews.com says Al-Jazeera TV has withdrawn two cartoons on its website after objections from the US; currently the agency and Dubai-based Al-Arabiya are under 2-week suspension from Iraq reporting due to attacks on Iraqi ruling council; also said senior Egyptian cleric gives in to US pressure by annulling edict issued by a less senior cleric calling on Arab states to boycott new Iraqi government
  • US chief Iraq weapons inspector David Kay says no WMD have been discovered in Iraq so far but ample evidence of intent; this belies a report we carried some month back that he was expected to make sensational announcements on the subject; he says evidence of a nuclear program is weakest, of a biological program strongest; clear evidence of deceit and failure to comeclean with UN inspectors  [Readers will notice we have given no particular prominence to this story; as far as we are concerned, WMD are not germane to why the US invaded Iraq, whatever the government may have had to tell its own people to build support]
  • Times of India reports Pakistan informs India of short-range missile test, to take place today,  as required by agreements
  • BBC says US, Turkey agree to eradicate 5,000 PKK rebels sheltering in N Iraq, US has stopped Turkish troops from entering iraq so presumably will do the job itself; by no coincidence, the Turkish parliament is waiting to take up a vote on sending Turkish troops to Iraq
  • BBC says France, other countries still unhappy with US draft resolution on Iraq self-rule because US doesn't set date SecState Powell again says it is up to Iraqis to do that
  • News of the Absurd: Indian Defense Minister George Fernandes, in another and characteristic eruption of spontaneity,   now finally admits there is a problem with the MiG-21 after repeated insistence it was safe - in the last 3 years alone 30 MiG-21s have crashed with the loss of 17 pilots, and the problem dates back 20 years; he was moved to admission by a letter from the mother of a dead pilot; "George", as he is known to the press, now wants all Indians to join hands to resolve the MiG-21 crash problem; your editor is sorry to inform George that his family of 3, as the only Indians within a 3 block radius of our suburb, dutifully joined hands and were unable to come up with any solution
  • [0230 GMT October 2] Thailand officials say news of 6 shoulder-fired SAMs being smuggled into the country ahead of the 21 nation APEC conference  which President Bush and other world leaders will attend are only rumors; nonetheless, VOA says Thai authorities are searching for the missiles, believed to have come from Cambodia
  • CNN says ROK says it will not send troops to Iraq until the nuclear standoff  with the North is resolved, thus neatly extricating themselves from an awkward situation because clearly the  issue is not about to be resolved any time soon; Seoul holds big military parade, the first large-scale display in 5 years, for 55th armed forces anniversary, previous displays scaled down to avoid aggravating North; defense spending to jump 8% to $16 billion, biggest increase in 7 years
  • BBC says French troops drive into Bouake, a major city in the rebel-held half of the Ivory Coast, to keep the peace between rebel factions; trouble began over money from a looted bank, 23 killed, 37 wounded; French troops were invited by the rebels and have entered the city for the first time
  • 3500 West African peacekeepers in Liberia donned blue headgear today as their mission was transferred to UN command; when 11,500 other troops arrive, this will be the biggest UN peacekeeping operation in the world; a Kenyan general will take command
  • BBC says US forwards draft of a new UN resolution proposed to authorize UN forces for Iraq; resolution answers many objections previously  raised, and Russia/China said ready to accept it in general terms 

 

  • [0300 GMT October 1] The Pakistan Secretary of Defense has said the US has agreed to upgrade PAF F-16s and restore the force to its original 40 aircraft level - Orbat.com estimates PAF may now have 25-26 left after 20+ years of operating the type; other items have been agreed to; Pakistan has insisted the US provide a counter to the Indian Air Force's incoming Phalcon/Il-76 AWACS; also, Pakistan has submitted a list of equipment normally given away free by the US with the cost of upgrades borne by the supplier country; also Pakistan has asked for border surveillance equipment for west, and says it is in US interest to supply  - this implies Pakistan will not pay for the equipment
  • Jang of Pakistan says Pakistan is providing US only with logistical support at Jacobabad, Kohat, and Faran air bases/fields, and that too mainly for evacuation of casualties; says no combat missions are being flown from Pakistan - this is not what Orbat.com hears
  • Jordan will train 30,000 Iraqi police and troops in batches of 1500; in Iraq, apparently civilian contractors are doing most of the training even as the US military takes the credit - thanks to Orbat contributor Gordon A. MacKinlay for the items
  • The Washington Post reports that the Iraqis themselves have said a constitution cannot be prepared in 6-months as planned by the US to accommodate growing foreign demands the Iraqis be given genuine self-government at the soonest; factionalism has led to inability to move quickly on this issue; meanwhile, NPR says US Senate prepared to approve $67 billion for US military operations in Iraq, but is balking at $20 billion for reconstruction; many sources have said people dont understand Iraq may have the world's 2nd largest oil reserves, but has no money for reconstruction or debt repayment, and it will be years before it can stand on its own feet
  • NATO considers an expansion of ISAF to create  provincial combined-action teams for security and rebuilding in 8 provincial capitals - we dont know yet what the size of the teams will be, but unless its substantial, its difficult to see how the teams will assure their own security leave alone look after the locals
  • We misidentified the 81st Bde alerted for duty in Iraq as a reinforcement, as an infantry brigade: it is an armor brigade with 1/185th Armor, 1/303rd Armor, 1/161st Infantry, and 2/146th Field Artillery - thanks to Globalsecurity.org; also the 30thInfBde preparing for Iraq is to be reinforced with at least 4 rifle companies from the 27th Bde plus 1/150th Armor; if 39th Bde is similarly reinforced, the two brigades could replace a division in Iraq; at the same time, however, we must keep in mind that several Guard infantry battalions and many reservist MP battalions beef up the regular army and these also need to be rotated home.
  •  A Bangladesh battalion group is in Sierra Leone and preparing to enter Liberia as the first element of the UN force, which BBC reports will grow to 10,000
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