Iraq Stability Operations

Archived News May 2003

[At 0345 GMT June 1] President Bush seeks to forgive-and-forget with Russia; nonetheless, Prof. Stephen Cohen, Russia expert, says anti-Americanism running very high in Russia, and for his 2004 reelection campaign Mr. Putin may decide to keep an anti-US stance; meantime, said that French President still determined to oppose US, and to lead block that will balance Washington
Orbat.com error: French force for NE Congo will number about 1200 with UK troops, not 2,000 as we reported earlier
Israel lifts some restrictions on Gaza Strip, West Bank prior to Aqaba Summit, 25,000 Palestine work-permit holders to be permitted entry to Israel, 100 administrative detainees to be released; meanwhile said Palestine's 60% unemployment rate would cause any other country to collapse, but because of neighbors sharing what they can economy has kept going
Jang of Pakistan reports US arrests 15 senior former Iraq police officers who had been meeting in secret, includes 1major-general, 5 brigadiers, 3 colonels, 1 lieutenant colonel; arrest came on information given and applauded by 100 other officers
Times of India quotes Indian intel sources as saying while Pakistan has ordered militants to lay low, new camps have been set up, recruitment and training continue but in altered manner to reduce Pakistan government profile; Pakistan Army ordered not to use fire to support militant crossings [Orbat.com comment: without the heavy and sustained fire the Pakistan Army lays down to cover infiltration and exfiltration of militants, these men are at a much greater risk particularly as Indian security forces step up induction of sensors, night vision equipment, and fencing]
Associated Press reports Suu Kyi in protective custody after 4 killed in clash between her supporters and pro-junta supporters in N Burma
IRNA quotes Saudi-based Radio Free Iraq as saying US has asked Iraqis to turn-over Arab nationals in Iraq that might be planning attacks; says US special forces searching vast areas to find infiltrators with goal of taking them alive

[At 0515 GMT May 31] UN votes to authorize French-led force of 2000 troops, including at least 200 British forces, for NE Democratic Republic of Congo; force will remain until September 1 when regular peacekeepers from other nations will take-over; temporary force will not be under UN or under UN rules of engagement
US putting a new group to search for WMD; approximately 1300 to start arriving in two weeks, including UK, Australia, some IAEA inspectors to return, al-Baradai will not be included; meanwhile, US estimates it has searched one-third of known sites
US to set up teams to ensure Israel-Palestine actions on Road Map are implemented; Palestine PM says he will crack down on terror; US admits Arafat has standing with the people, but Bush says he is an obstacle to peace; US will channel aid through him to add to the marginalization of Arafat
[At 1130 GMT May 30] Washington Post reports UK-US dissolve new Basra government saying it is unrepresentative of people; as always, certain Iraqis quite vocal about their disapproval
US denies plan to shift 15,000 of 25,000 troops from Okinawa to Australia, says only deployments in Asia are under discussion as much as Europe deployments
US 3rd MechDiv sends units to reinforce 3rd ACR at Falluja - only one squadron [battalion] of the regiment is there

[At 0230 GMT May 30] New York Times says 1st, 2nd Bdes of 3rd MechDiv to remain in Iraq; 3rd Bde, which has served more than a year in Gulf, will leave but not just yet; 1 bde likely to shift to Falluja W of Baghdad where worst anti-American incidents after war have taken place; 1 bde likely to remain Baghdad [as Orbat.com had learned earlier], one battalion or div cavalry squadron to reinforce 4th MechDiv; additional engineers and MPs will be sent
Implications are that 145,000 US troops will remain indefinitely in Iraq instead of reducing to 70,000 as US SecDef Rumsfeld wanted; the already enormous strain on US Army will increase, leading to morale and retention problems; Orbat.com is told US needs minimum of two divisions more to 12 total rather than cut of two divisions as proposed by SecDef - though we've been told for some time that that plan is dead; further, US cannot undertake major operations against another threat without even further increases
Haartez of Israel reports numerous developments as Mideast situation changes rapidly: Next 5 reports:
Sharon offers to Palestine PM to pull IDF from West Bank city centers
Jordan official tells Palestine it will have to fight Hamas
Iran said to stop some types of Hizbollah training and is shifting heavy weapons away from Israel border
Jewish settler group erects another illegal settlement [settlers have been threatening revolt against state if forced to move]
US said ready to invest money in Lebanon as incentive to Beirut to expel Hizbollah; warning to Damascus to stop backing group accompanied by incentives including stop to move in US Congress to sanction Damascus

[At 0100 GMT May 29] UK Telegraph says March 25th that UK interrogators learn of Iraqi efforts to develop 600 mile missile, banned weapon; meanwhile, Telegraph says it learns Saddam regime parades of dead babies to show how sanctions were hurting Iraq's children were cynical drama, Iraqis say regime internal sanctions caused illness/malnutrition, parents were ordered to out on show for foreign media
US analysts debate upsurge of Iraq attacks on US troops; some say resistance is solidifying, others say last remaining regime elements realize US wont leave quickly and attacks show desperation
UK papers report PM Blair in political trouble after US Secretary defense Mr. Rumsfeld casually says Iraq may have destroyed WMD before war
US CENTCOM reports it has paid 345,000 Iraq civil servants; 850,000 liter/day benzene pipeline Baghdad-Najaf to reopen shortly, easing fuel crisis in Central South Iraq; payouts now $1 million day; $200 million of frozen Iraqi $1.7 billion used; $1 billion reconstruction contracts awarded; meanwhile patrols cross 2700/day mark, US continues effort to deliver POL for civil use in major cities nationwide
Saudis seize 8 suspects including ringleader of Riyadh blasts after gunfight in holy city of Medina
Mr. Arafat throws spanners in peace efforts, determined to show he is in charge, Israel-UK-US equally determined to continue marginalizing him, Israel-Palestine meeting to go ahead, Mideast summit with President Bush to go ahead; Sharon under fire from Israeli hardliners but so far is holding firm
UN vote on 1,000 additional peacekeepers for Bunia, DRC, may come as early as Friday says BBC

[At 0100 GMT May 28] Brigade 10th MtnDiv to replace brigade 82nd AbnDiv in JTF-180 Afghanistan; TF's total strength is 11,500 from 33 nations
US says it will continue to use diplomacy in Al Qaida/nuclear dispute with Iran
BBC reports Pakistan's North West Frontier Agency province assembly votes for Sharia law
US CENTCOM says "Sayf al-Din al-Mashhadani (#46), Ba’ath Party Regional Chairman for al-Muthanna and Sad Abd al-Majid al-Faysal (#55), Ba’ath Party Regional Chairman for Salah al-Din were captured by Coalition Forces on Saturday."
Iraq interim oil minister says deal with Russian Lukoil cancelled, another with Chinese cancelled by mutual consent; new contracts will be issued soon, anti-war nations will not be discriminated against
BBC says "The controversial Arab satellite television station al-Jazeera has replaced its chief executive but said the move was not linked to reports that it had been infiltrated by Iraqi intelligence."

[At 0100 GMT May 27] At this time there is no major breaking story of world import
India is consulting with the UN and seeking unspecified assurances before agreeing to commit troops to the Iraq stabilization force; meanwhile, both sides keep taking small normalization steps ahead of the planned meeting of the Indian and Pakistani Prime Ministers, the latest is the resumption by India of the Lahore-Delhi bus service
French and West African peacekeeping troops are taking up positions in West Ivory Coast in an attempt to keep Liberian fighters from entering the country; these fighters, often high on drugs, have been stymieing efforts to increase civilian security in the area while rebels and the Center try and reconcile
[At 0130 GMT May 26] Jung reports US disarms all Chalabi Free Iraq Forces fighters; expected to start on SIRCI [Iranian-based Shias] fighters next; captures group responsible for attacks on US forces Fallujah; if FIF report correct, Pentagon loses yet more influence vis-a-vis State in battle over Iraq policy
Washington Post reports Washington suspends contacts with Iran as it believes Iran-based Al Qaida operatives planned Saudi attacks, says US considering toppling Teheran government; pro-Iran elements of US establishment say Al-Qaida operatives are not under Iran Government control, that though opposition to government exists it is not big enough to aid in overthrow, and that Iran is trying to work with US; Iran officials say they do not permit Al Qaida to stay in Iran, arrest them as can
US/UK forces mount 7 raids, 1968 patrols - of which 102 joint with Iraqis throughout Iraq; 727 MW power restored Baghdad, high-voltage distribution ring likely to be repaired by June 1, 95,000 cubic meters rubble/waste of estimated 300,000 removed in Baghdad; MCI setting up/repairing telephone relay towers; 90% Kirkuk students back in class; 20 buses on five lines back in service Karbala
Israeli cabinet backs President Bush Road Map; some say costs Israel nothing as militant opposition to accord ensures terror against Israel will continue, permitting Tel Aviv to jettison accord when necessary

[At 0130 GMT May 25] IRNA says Lebanon President says Beirut will not safeguard Israeli interests until a just peace is agreed on - implication is he will not eject Hezbollah from S Lebanon
IRNA says Poland Foreign Minister tells Teheran his country will safeguard all holy sites in South Central Iraq as requested by Iran, welcomes Iran's experience ahead of deployment ; Poland will take over US I MEF sector
Kuwait, US Navy begin war games
India starts withdrawing Border Security Force troops from internal security in NE India under plan to return, by 2005, IS to police; BSF will return to border security; Army will completely withdraw from CI operations; big increases in paramilitary forces underway to permit BSF/Army to resume their traditional duties
Washington Post says oil smuggling resumes in Iraq, reducing already limited local supplies; UK troops say they lack manpower to stop; Iraq oil official says production now 700,000 bbl/day - this may be exaggeration - and that output will increase to 1.3+ million bbl/day within weeks, permitting resumption of exports; Pakistan's Jung says unclear if he has authority to make these statements
[At 1400 GMT May 24] Poland advances on participation in Iraq stabilization force; Ukraine agrees to contribute upto 2000 troops, Bulgaria 500, other Europeans also say they will give small numbers of specialist troops; 7,000 total needed, earlier Poland said it can send 1400; original proposal to use Danish-German-Polish Division as core failed when adamant Berlin refused to participate
BBC reports Prime Minister Pakistan Kashmir raises "Chenab Formula" for Kashmir settlement; this long privately but never officially discussed plan divides Kashmir at River Chenab, putting Muslims under Pakistan and non-Muslim under India; Kashmiri Muslims previously reject Formula - they want plebiscite which presumably would give them all Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh due their majority in Kashmir, most populous part of State; Indians previously reject as they insist all state is legally India's and India is multi-ethnic; Pakistan Kashmir PM argues Bengal and Punjab were divided along religious lines, why not Kashmir; so far India indicates willing to accept Line of Control as international boundary, this is formula US is working on

[At 0300 GMT May 24] US denies Wall Street Journal report that Uday offers to surrender, doubts Saddam and son are hiding in Baghdad as reported
1/3rd ACR seizes half-billion dollars gold in routine traffic stop of two trucks near Syrian border crossing
Globalsecurity.org quotes AFP as saying UK 16th AA Bde will deploy to Baghdad
US troops restart two refineries, expect to restart LPG plant which provides 1000 tons day; repairs to Baghdad grid continue; power now for 2-hours on/4-hours off; 300 MW additional expected available soon; observers say Iraq power situation was bad even before invasion
Bush, Japan Prime Minister issue tough warning to North Korea that nuclear weapons will not be tolerated, N Korea must verifiably divest. Earlier S Korea President accepted this US policy
ABC-TV says Bush considers Mideast summit in Sharam-el-Sheikh as Sharon says he accepts Bush Road Map; in return US gives assurance it will keep Israel's security in mind; said US continues effort to marginalize Arafat and strengthen Abu Mazan

[At 1200 GMT May 23] Washington Post says Afghan President Karzai strips warlord Dostum of autonomy; Dostum said agrees to changes; Post does not say how the change will be enforced

Further report of Indo-Russian naval exercises: apparently 7 Russian Pacific Fleet warships also involved, making 10 total; largest Russian naval sortie into Indian Ocean since union breakup
US dissolves Iraq Army, ends conscription; all below colonel permitted to reenlist; all weapons purchase debts to be resolved only by US; meanwhile, embargo end allows 8 million stored barrels of oil to be sold
BBC says 40,000 Indonesian troops in separatist Aceh Province, fighting underway after peace talks fail
[At 0130 GMT May 23] CNN says Iran says Al Qaida operatives in custody; previously had said none were in-country; US asks if they are permitted to communicate with outside world; Blair says he had earlier warned Iran to turn over any Al Qaida; US says operatives include Saif al Adel, third-in-command and top planner
UN lifts Iraq sanctions; diplomatic victory for US with minimum compromises
Factional fighting Kirkuk, US troops clash with locals at Falluja, a Saddam stronghold which has been giving trouble since US troops first arrived
Number 8 in Card Deck - Aziz Salah al-Numah, general and senior Baathist, in custody; now 25 of 55 detained
India said considering joining Iraq stabilization force even if under US command; official says Indian service only under UN flag is not a rule; legacy of Indian parliament's anti-war resolution must be overcome
US government orders CIA to begin review on intel reporting on WMD in Iraq; no conclusions expected for several months
US forces kill 3 of 30 attacking Afghans near Gardez; reference Kabul embassy Marines killing 4 Afghans unloading weapons near compound, said earlier Afghan soldier had mockingly thrown a grenade before

[At 1200 GMT May 22] India, Russia to exercise navies after 14 years says BBC; from Russian Black Sea Fleet CHG Moskova, DGs Shaposhnikov, Panteleyov to participate off East Andamans with INS Viraat [CVL], DGs Bombay, Mysore, FFG Brahmaputra, SS Sindhuratna; seen as Russia's effort to reassert presence in Arabian Sea
[At 0130 GMT May 22] Saudi fires hundreds of mosque congregationalist clerics in campaign against terror, says will revise educational curriculum to deemphasize hatred of west
Russia, France, Germany agree to support lifting of Iraq sanctions; US in turn concedes role for UN nuclear arms inspectors, UN Secretary General will appoint political representative
Setback for moderate Iran President Khatami as Guardian Council refuses two bills relating to elections and his powers; Orbat.com note - internal politics of Iran are extremely complex, we suggest readers do their own research before drawing conclusions from this latest struggle between the President and the clerics
Iraq interim authority meet deferred to next month as US decides more time is needed
NATO agrees to help Poland deploy Polish contribution to Iraq stabilization force
BBC reports fresh atrocities Bunia, NE DR Congo; France says it will lead in with 1000 man battalion but other EU nations must join, force mandate must be time-limited; UK said looking for limited intervention till July arrival of South African, Bangladeshi UN troops
Pakistan imposes restrictions on Hizbul Mujahideen, another militant Kashmir group, in effort to improve atmosphere for talks with India

[At 0100 GMT May 21] US raises terror alert to Orange - High - on warning attacks are expected; US, UK, Germany close embassies in Saudi; ABC-TV and other sources report Bush administration refusal to properly fund homeland security means not much increase in security actually taking place; said local law enforcement and budgets stretched to breaking point
Though 89% of Baghdad police back in service, only 14 of 42 police stations functioning as yet; US now aggressively cracking down on civil disorder throughout country
Said US interrogators playing Barney and Metallica music to break Iraq detainees
US Defense Advanced Projects Agency at work on project to mine commercial databases for terrorist-indicated activity; as always, US civil liberty groups alarmed; said project requires storage of thousands of terabytes of data; DARPA reasons in today's world no one can avoid leaving records in computer data bases
Afghan provincial leaders promise to remit dues to Kabul; some skeptical that they will actually do so or that President Karzai can make them
Commonwealth refuses to lift Pakistan's suspension; meanwhile, Jung newspaper says first ever international inspections for chemical weapons proceed smoothly
Man named as Stakeknife denies he is the double agent
Said despite terror bombing wave Israel holding off retaliation to help Palestine Prime Minister Abu Mazan

[At 0130 GMT May 20] 5th suicide attack in Israel within two days, woman bomber and two killed; Tel Aviv will not meet any diplomats who meet Arafat; ABC-TV says though road map in tatters President Bush has become more determined to become involved

12 French troops arrive Bunia, NE DR Congo, believed advance team for French contingent; UN asks UK for troops; two missing UN observers found killed

President Karzai threatens to dissolve government, call new Loya Jirga at which he will name the provincial commanders who are stalling peace and progress, unless commanders start remitting revenue to Kabul; should be $600-million but is only $80-million; also demands end to Mazar-i-Sharif factional fighting

Morocco says 13 bombers died in attacks, one captured; all from Casablanca slums and are part of an Islamic group, not Al Qaida; US says some bombers trained with Al Qaida

Another two squadrons US 2nd ACR arrive Baghdad; US no longer talking about withdrawals, now 160,000 troops in Iraq; US starts distributing $40 emergency payments to pensioners, thus easing explosive situation where many people had no money at all

Pentagon says BBC report that Lynch rescue was staged is "ridiculous"; BBC reporter defends his story, but in CNN interview seems to back off by saying he reported what he was told by Iraqis; Pentagon says they never said fighting took place inside the hospital, and never discussed Lynch's injuries, that much of what BBC criticizes is based on speculation by US media, not misrepresentation by Pentagon

Reports say US carrier force will not be ready for another major campaign till December due to surging of 7 carriers from 12 over extended period for Gulf War; US Navy sources say they will be ready to go much sooner and are making revised deployment patterns/plans to ensure 7 battlegroups can be deployed; Orbat.com comment - unless extraordinary circumstances intervene, in an all-out effort USN can surge 10 carriers with some warning time

[At 0100 GMT May 19] 3-way factional fighting in Mazar-i-Sharif threatens local Afghan piece - read Jung

50 killed in Philippines army assault on separatists - read Jung

Israel closes Palestine territories after suicide bombing kills 7, second bomber dies without other casualties; retaliation expected today; Sharon says he will not expel Arafat, pleasing Washington which says it does not want a martyr made of him; in face of determined attempt by both sides to derail peace plans, if Washington has a plan it remains a secret

US forces Iraq conduct 1600 patrols and 33 raids May 18, 192 with Iraqi forces; 14 police stations open Mosul; previously only two open Baghdad, yesterday eight more in service; US forces looking to reopen 43 more stations in Baghdad; over 7000 of 8,000 Baghdad police have returned to work

Saudis say 9 terrorists died in Riyadh attack, they have 4 in custody, looking for remaining five; some observers say attacks may begin to turn Saudis against extremists; Saudi Government vows crackdown, but some Americans say they have heard this before with no results

Said that Saudi attacks show terrorists are not against America as such, as US is vacating Saudi bases, but against modernization; said this was the reason Morocco was targeted, it is progressive and liberal, and though a US ally opposed war on Iraq; Orbat.com has long said terror war is not about America but about taking the world back ten centuries

US says one group Al Qaeda senior leaders in Iran, one on Pakistan-Afghan border

[At 0330 GMT May 18] Times of India says BBC to release documentary today saying POW Jessica Lynch rescue was staged to divert home attention from bogged down war and civilian casualties; allegations include that US forces were firing blanks
IRNA quotes Saudi-based Voice of Iraq to say US forces launched big offensive in three Baghdad localities to seize weapons, ammunition and shut down arms smugglers; all access to Baghdad to be controlled to stop influx of arms
Commanding general Republican Guard arrested; had returned from Syria
US 1st ArmdDiv arrives Baghdad
Morocco officials say 14 men in five groups responsible for bombing; 30+ suspects arrested; other reports say 10 terrorists themselves killed
Sharon, Abu Mazan talks end in deadlock, both promise to meet again; BBC says secret, unofficial talks on security situation will take place between the two sides with US backing

[At 0100 GMT May 17] After days of waffling statements by US officials, according to ABC News US forces have shoot-to-kill power against looters damaging public facilities; earlier US was hesitant for concern of turning public against it; now shooting looters deemed the more productive course in face of rising dissatisfaction at lack of security
US officials say most looting/crimes committed by 100,000 criminals released by Saddam regime prior to US invasion
BBC says southern Africa drought ending; but Mozambique still at risk and Zimbabwe situation complicated by refusal of farmers to plant in face of land seizures
UN formally calls for additional forces for Bunia in NE Congo; five warring militias call truce; BBC notes Hemas and Lendus, main combatant factions, have been fighting for centuries
Israel to restructure Defense Forces now that Iraq not threat; no details available, defense budget to be reduced; in unrelated development all West Bank brought under single IDF command headed by brigadier [in Israel this is a quite senior rank]
Move in US Congress to return mothballed B-1s to service given success in Afghan/Iraq wars; others warn the original 3-wing force was never properly supported so reactivating the third wing not good idea
Brookings study says Iraq may not have as much oil as said; says reserves inflated by Saddam regime to gain bigger OPEC quota; significance is Iraq may not be able to replace Saudi; Orbat.com subscribes to theory that US needs hedge against Saudi dominance in oil production as part of its Mideast strategy

[At 0030 GMT May 16] US 4th MechDiv troops raid Tikrit, arrest 260 including two generals, one on Card list; most will be released, aim was to break Saddam loyalists; crackdown in Baghdad, criminals to be held for 3 weeks or handed over to courts, versus previous 48 hours; new administration vows security situation will be improved; 21 of wanted 55 in custody

Fighting continues at Bunia, NE DRC, no water for 8 days, no power, tens of thousands flee, hundreds killed; France offers 1,000 troops to add to UNMOC to strengthen 700 man Uruguay battalion that has neither means nor orders to stop the violence; UK considering dispatching troops also

Meanwhile, 11th accused Rwanda genocide found guilty at Arusha tribunal, sentenced to life

Pakistan bans Jamait I Islami terror group leader from Pakistan Kashmir; twelve Shell gas stations in Karachi hit by minor explosions, no damage

Reinforcing armor battalion that stayed in S Korea after annual exercises to return; Guard armor battalion from 40th MechDiv earmarked for S Korea in case of escalation de-alerted; this does not mean crisis has eased, only that 1st CavDiv is now no longer on alert for Iraq and is therefore available for Korean Peninsula

[At 1115 GMT May 15] Israeli forces launch retaliatory strike into Gaza with 50 tanks & helicopters [BBC] after mortar/rocket attacks; Road Map said at standstill but so far Sharon-Abu Mazan meeting Saturday still on

UK forces hand back Umm Qasr, port city of 45,000, to Iraqis, withdraw all except few of 200 soldiers stationed there; 12 person provisional council to rule till elections; first Iraqi city to return to local rule

US commander says for first time organized resistance by Saddam loyalists responsible for much of the looting and attacks, says these persons destroying restored infrastructure

Said one brigade 3rd MechDiv to remain in Baghdad for now despite arrival of 1st ArmdDiv; US military police to increase from 1800 to 4000; US has 140,000 troops in Iraq, UK 25,000; 15,000 more US troops arriving even as others withdraw; 49,000 in Baghdad, 20,000 in North; US distributing 1.5 million gallons of gas daily in Baghdad, 500,000 in Mosul, to combat shortages

US Congress grows increasingly concerned US is losing peace; Rumsfeld denies anarchy, says 2/3rd to 3/4ths Baghdad under control; says "these things take time"

US says $950 million cash recovered is what Saddam looted from central bank; starts sending frozen Iraqi cash back to Baghdad; Lebanon says it will return $350 million in frozen Iraq money, but other nations including Germany say their legal requirements have to be met

Payments to Iraqi civil servants expanded, former intelligence service personnel to get no payments, senior officials to get half of previous salary, lower rank workers to get full

[At 0300 GMT May 15] When US repeatedly warned Riyadh of impending terror attack, including pinpointing one target, and when cache of explosives/arms was discovered in house in one target compound, is attack sign of Al Qaeda strength or Saudi weakness? Saudis said still unwilling to permit US investigators direct role; US said extremely angry its warnings were ignored

India Abroad [ethnic newspaper published from New York] says despite Armitage disclaimer, US has spelled out Kashmir road map seeking resolution of dispute between India and Pakistan by 2005; Orbat.com comment: permitting Washington to get involved in Kashmir is one of the worst blunders of Indian foreign policy; if - as widely believed - US is about to step in to force a settlement, India can give the go-bye to its six decade pretension of having a leading role to play in the world

UK investigation of British Army connected murders in Northern Ireland prepares to forward papers to the Department of Public Prosecutions concerning involvement of Brigadier Gordon Kerr, now military attaché to Beijing, in late 1980s head of Force Research Unit; FSU is a key investigation target. Orbat.com note: even to those unfamiliar with the situation the British Government appears headed into dangerous waters - can our readers better informed tell us what's going on?

Now Stakeknife, top British informer inside IRA, said to be in his 50s; he denies any involvement with IRA for the last 13 years, and says he was no informer

While human rights groups criticize US for failure to guard mass execution burial sites, US officers on ground clearly say they have to respect grief of relatives who want immediate access to bodies for closure and for burial; HR groups stand puts them in direct conflict with wishes of Iraqi people

[At 1100 GMT May 14] While world ponders Saddam brutality as mass grave of possibly 15,000 uncovered near Hilla, DR Congo as usual ignored; UN calls for boosting Uruguay battalion in NE province of Ituri to stop ethnic rival tribes Hemas and Lendus fighting to control capital Bunia; 50,000 reported killed in this region alone since 1999; French offer troops but Hemas rejects their possible presence; some say violence pattern shows same buildup as Rwanda genocide; Del Ponte, UN war crimes for former Yugoslavia and Rwanda also warns of potential genocide

US decides restoring oil output in N Iraq more important than giving Kurds share in oil industry; Kurds say only six of 10,000 oil workers are Kurdish; US says while senior Baathists will not be allowed to return, competent people are needed for restoration

[At 0230 GMT May 14] Chairman US Joint Chief now hints 3rd MechDiv may not pull out of Iraq when 1st ArmdDiv deployed, to meet shortage of stabilization troops; sources say Pentagon's reluctance to firmly deal with troop shortage issue is becoming baffling

Saudi bombings raise question why attack took place where it would have minimal impact instead of in West

Shia chief of Badr Brigade says his 10,000 fighters are still armed and belong in the new Iraq army; interestingly, he says opposition to US will be political and not armed

British Army IRA infiltrator agent Stakeknife is only 45 years old, entered service at age 20 and did 25 years undercover, not three decades as initially reported; BBC says many were set to reveal his name; apparently these were informers against the IRA acting out of frustration - they believe British used and then abandoned them, leaving them to face IRA retaliation, this was the only leverage they had against their former handlers

Sharon bluntly rejects freeze or reduction of settlements, apparently throwing up block across Road Map before the bus started; Orbat.com is told this is simply Sharon starting to bargain by hanging as tough as possible and that Bush Administration is determined to get settlement; but others say since Arabs are quiet after Saddam overthrow and have again shown their powerlessness, pro-Israel lobby in US Government betting there is no need to pressure Israel beyond token concessions

Said Sharon-Abu Mazan secret contacts have been underway for some time in preparation for a meeting

[At 0200 GMT May 13, 2003] Venezuela's Chavez challenges opposition to depose him in referendum, says will win back office at polls; theoretically referendum can be called anytime after August 19, but many practical and legal issues remain unresolved; group of Six Friends of Venezuela have been trying to mediate referendum issue, but no agreement that satisfies all parties as yet reached

India tests 3rd Astra air-to-air missile in four days. Orbat.com comment: mention "missile" in the context of India/Pakistan and the media gets excited, some ask why India should test just as Armitage visits, but this is only a medium range AAM for an Indian fighter expected to enter service in 2010, the tests have absolutely no strategic significance or relevance to Pakistan

Times of India says Pakistan preparing to invoke mediation clause of Indus Water Treaty for first time since treaty signed more than 50-years ago; Pakistan worries about water diversion from a new Indian dam in Kashmir, India says Pakistan will not suffer. Orbat.com comment: this seemingly minor issue has potential to become major diplomatic headache; water from the five rivers both nations share is lifeblood of huge agricultural tracts and critical to their economic health

US arrests Iraqi general Number 11 on Cards, believed he will have information on WMD due past positions; Dr. Taha - not on list - surrenders, headed anthrax program

Poland now chooses South Central Iraq as its zone, between Baghdad [US] and Basra [UK], instead of North which it felt was too large; now needs 7,000 troops, says it will provide 2,000; no sign of who will offer rest

Growing feeling Rumsfeld won war but was clueless about peace; every day stories emerge of how short-handed US is regarding troops for security; US reconstruction officials seem powerless to speed process; US military basically left to do what it can on its own, is doing commendable job, but is not, after all, trained/equipped for peacekeeping/reconstruction

US says Iraq Coast Guard to be reconstituted, Air Force to be rebuilt, a much smaller Army is envisaged, but still large enough to defend Iraq, Republican Guard personnel/officers need not apply

[At 0100 GMT May 12, 2003] UK papers report British army controlled agent 'Stakeknife' exposed, left Northern Ireland prior to his cover being blown; worked for 3 decades, reaching highest levels of IRA; said he was so vital many were murdered to protect his identity; exemplifying the confusion that results when a democracy tries to fight a ruthless insurgency, British police investigating murders linked to British Army want to 'interview' agent
US reorganizes Iraq administrators, Rumsfeld stumbles as his man Garner demoted, State Department officer removed as Central Iraq administrator; she says many problems pre-date US invasion, but general agreement US has not done enough to restore services
US troops daily distribute free gasoline in Baghdad from seized stocks; taxi drivers say they spend a day obtaining fuel for a day's work
In baffling development, US troops from 75th Exploitation Task Force - built around HQ 75th ArtyBde - to leave Iraq in June, quoted by Washington post as saying WMD search has failed; contradicts US administration position that much more time is need for discovery
Meanwhile, US finds 3 of 8 mobile bioweapons manufacture labs it sought
Critical question not answered: if Saddam had no WMD, why did he not come completely clean and let UN certify Iraq instead of playing games with inspectors, then kicking them out, then letting them in only when US threatened to invade him?
BBC reports Iraq dinar to US dollar ratio now half 4000 to 1 during war; before Saddam exchange rate was more like 5 US dollars to one dinar; school teacher gets paid 3,500 dinars, enough says BBC for a fast-food meal in upscale Mansour neighborhood; soldier's pension is 600 dinars. Many have warned unless currency stabilization and back wages issues straightened out, Iraq could be heading for disaster, though food staples not expected to be problem thanks to stocks and food aid
US aircraft attack Taliban position after ambush in Khost; first time in many weeks airpower has been used here; Armitage tells Afghans US is in for long haul, many reports say reconstruction proceeds very slowly as US refuses to commit resources for reconstruction or security. Orbat.com note: please note campaigning season in Afghanistan has begun; you will hear reports of increasing Taliban activity but these need to be kept in perspective given change in weather

[At 0300 GMT May 11, 2003] Scotsman says Taliban leaders say Russia now funding them; says leadership reconstituted; Pakistan ISI again funding Taliban; says Taliban seized two provinces for a short while before being pushed out. Orbat.com comment: since Taliban operates from Pakistan, if these reports are true, Islamabad will come under even more pressure from Washington as US has no intention of letting Taliban thrive or return
MEK anti-Teheran regime group in Iraq agrees to disarm; weapons to be "consolidated" by US troops; group says this was not a surrender
US 3rd ACR now patrolling Jordon border as well as Syrian border, manning checkposts; more evidence that life for ordinary Iraqis turns grim after Saddam ouster - returning Iraqis complain they are held up for hours as US searches vehicles and seeks ID from travelers, previously they paid $10 bribe and whizzed through
Hezbollah says US offers recognition if group gives up violence against Israel, stays neutral in Arab-Israeli conflict, and shares intelligence; Hezbollah says it will not disarm
Details US Road Map BBC
India says US has made no formal request for Iraq peacekeeping troops; says in any case Indian peacekeeping missions have always operated only within UN framework. Orbat.com note: Indian spokesperson conveniently forgets Indian mission to Sri Lanka late 1980s, mediated by US; at peak 110,000 troops involved including corps HQ in India, circa 1500 Indians KIA, mission ended in failure and withdrawal

[At 0500 GMT May 10] UK withdrawing 3500 Army soldiers, including 2nd Royal Tanks and 1st Royal Irish; seems probable 7th ArmdBde will be entirely withdrawn, replaced by 19th MechBde; RAF contingent down to half - 45 aircraft; Royal Navy continues to withdraw ships
Bush plan envisages US-Mideast Free Trade Zone, means sanctions on several Mideast nations will be withdrawn; as the first of many conditions to come, joiners will have to end Israel boycott
Said US asks UK to do the talking with 15 countries for stabilization force contributions, said UK finds going difficult; hoped Poland would contribute 4,000, but so far Warsaw has agreed only to 1,500
US administered Iraq region will be split into three sectors - we have no details yet
Surprisingly France reacts positively to US proposals for sanctions end
Debka says US has amassed huge intel information on Saddam regime's dealings with important people worldwide, US making information selectively available, Debka expects many Mideast resignations, says evidence details extensive Chirac family dealings with Baghdad
Said Iraq Army officers getting restless US has not approached them for creating new army, plan peaceful demonstration to draw attention to their plight

[At 1115 GMT May 9] 154 Iranian Members of Parliament call for improving ties with US; State Department wins internal disagreement with Pentagon, MEK to be disarmed - earlier, US first attacked MEK, a designated terror group, then backed MEK when reportedly Iran began sending clerics and armed personnel into Iraq

Another fight brewing with France, Russia at UN over proposal to lift sanctions and limit UN role in Iraq

General Franks says to expect instability and violence in Iraq for some time

Armitage says Pakistan has reduced terrorist infiltration into Indian Kashmir; Indian officials say its only heavy, late-melting snows have delayed infiltration and that 120 terror camps still exist in Pakistan Kashmir

[At 0100 GMT May 9] ABC-TV reports Baghdad hospitals functioning now that security has improved, but in 13, Shia clerics have taken over administration; US talks softly, in one case saying the cleric had helped US

Though Iraq pumping 250,000+ bbl/day oil, petrol still only 1/4th prewar availability, cooking gas very short: gas produced as by-product of crude extraction, Iraq needs to start exporting crude before gas production can return to normal

Baghdad-Basra train resumes service; first commercial flight to Baghdad should have landed yesterday

Armitage denies he has come with any peace proposals or plans to pressure India/Pakistan; said India will deploy more tactical, MRBMs, no details

Spain offers 1,500 troops for non-combat duty in Iraq; US lifts some sanctions, US-resident Iraqis can send up to $500/month home

4000 of 8000 Baghdad police now on job

[May 8] Washington Post says US FBI confident it gains control of Al Qaeda in US, now targeting Hamas, Hizbollah thanks to court ruling allowing FBI access to years of domestic communications intercepts
US Customs says 40,000 manuscripts, 700 artifacts recovered, says only 38 pieces valuable documented missing; much of missing inventory found intact in safe storage, other items intercepted, turned in, or recovered; Orbat.com comment - again we have media overkill, Baghdad Museum looting was presented to public as one of the greatest disasters ever to hit civilization, US was attacked, reviled worldwide including in its own country for failure to protect the museum, many media mentioned only in passing looting of Iraq treasures has been conducted for years
Poland backs off on request for German troops after Germans say they are not interested; US official says German/French troops will not be allowed to set foot in Iraq; Denmark to send 380 troops, administrators, technicians in June; Ukraine asked for troops, expresses interest
Fears of renewed killing in Congo as Ugandans again withdraw - they had withdrawn earlier but returned after accusations anti-Uganda insurgents were again using Congo as base; Uruguay battalion to take over Uganda sector, but have no authority except to defend themselves
Baghdad health workers demonstrate with coalition approval asking for end to self-financed health care and to protest conditions in hospitals
US State Department says it has no confirmation on Iraqis given passports by French, is investigating, meantime Washington Times says US widens search for missing Iraqis to Europe; only 19 of 55 including just one of top 10 in custody
Armitage and Rocca arrive Pakistan to begin talks on easing Kashmir impasse and terrorism, some Indians speculate Armitage will lower boom on President Musharraf because latter has not kept promise to Armitage on controlling cross-border terrorism and Armitage has taken this personally; others speculate that while US will force major concessions from Pakistan, it will do the same from India

[May 7] Washington Times says France issued wanted Iraqis EU passports - Debka had made this allegation earlier - French government denies
UK MP George Galloway suspended from Labor Party, apparently not for allegations of taking Iraqi money, but for speeches considered incitement of Arabs against UK troops
Oil production up to 250,000 bbl/day, but still a way from meeting local needs - exile groups under US guidance say Iraq will need to pump 6 million bbl/day, several years, billions in investment needed to achieve the target, foreign investment will have to be permitted
UK considers force of 10,000 troops by year end, about one brigade with support; Poland estimates it could support 1,500 troops for six months, US considering financial assistance for Warsaw
CENTCOM reports five shooting incidents against US troops May 6 - Orbat.com comment: this implies acceptance of US presence is actually widespread
Baghdad schools start reopening; US troops complain they get no credit when they restore infrastructure, get schools, hospitals etc. working again; several hundred Baghdad police back on job; inflation threatens as more Iraqis get $20 payments, dollar-dinar exchange rate falls as Iraqis convert dollars to dinars for daily purchases; US says Baath members eligible to return to jobs, some Iraqis protest, US says membership in party was mandatory for senior positions and connotes no commitment to Saddam, and that senior expertise is need for quick restoration

[May 6] First city election in post-Saddam Iraq as Mosul votes in ethnically balanced council that will appoint mayor; Debka says national government in Baghdad ready to be named; earlier Garner had set mid-May date

Debka says two leading Iraq biowar experts handed over by Syria to US to mollify Washington; appears from reports that Dr. Germ/Mrs. Anthrax, at least, negotiated her own surrender;

Poland, likely to take over North Iraq or South Iraq between Basra and Baghdad, tells US it wants German troops in stabilization force - Poland, Germany, Denmark already maintain joint force which presumably would be tapped

Senior US CENTCOM officers return to McDill AFB HQ; USAF sent 350 aircraft, 44,000 personnel to Gulf for war, many have returned, rest planning for return; USAF says it will continue to train with Gulf allies

US says Baghdad hospitals in better shape than earlier believed, less equipment was looted and matters returning to normal

4th MechDiv troops discover oil refinery built into mountain at Baiji in North; everyone baffled as to its purpose

North Korea again threatens US: give concessions or else; Orbat.com comment - North Korea experts say Pyongyang is quite rational, but rational means making sense to your opponent, not just to yourself - every threat issued by North Korea plays into US hardliner agenda, and this is not to North's advantage

Pakistan says it is ready to announce CBMs to ease tension with India; nothing either side has said or done in past few days makes any material difference to the situation and the dispute over Kashmir

[May 5] We regret due to an error while conducting site reorganization, we lost two days of updates. We apologize for the inconvenience to our readers

US 1st ArmdDiv to replace 3rd MechDiv; TF Tarawa [2 MEB] to return US, on Kearsarge, Saipan, Bataan ARGs

Poland, US, UK will assume responsibility for a sector each in stabilizing Iraq; US estimates it will require 20,000 troops in its sector, other sectors still not worked out; nonetheless, large number US troops will remain for now

Powell first says Syria closes Hamas, Jihad Islami, PFLP offices in Damascus, now unclear what has been done, Hamas, JI say they have no shut-down orders and will not comply in any case

Powell tells Lebanon, Syria that Lebanese Army must assume control of South Lebanon, i.e., Hezbollah must be ejected; Hezbollah refuses but said Syria may agree under US pressure. Orbat.com hears rumor US will allow minimal space/time for diplomatic activity before itself against Hezbollah if Syria refuses or double-deals. Syria attempting usual tactics of delay, US will not accept, wants complete overhaul of Syrian policy now regardless of what happens to Assad, then wants democratic Syria and end to Syrian Baath

US requests India, Pakistan for contribution to stabilization force; Orbat.com comment - Pakistan will have no difficulty providing a brigade; India may be constrained by internal politics - aggressive US policy to dominate Mideast and refusal/inability to completely accept India's position on Kashmir has led Indian elite into rabid anti-Americanism

India offers to restore diplomatic and air links with Kashmir prior to Kashmir talks; Orbat.com comment - discount any possibility of major improvement in relationship between India and Pakistan

Meanwhile India swept by rumor US preparing to force Kashmir settlement on India and Pakistan

[May 3] US cuts combat aircraft at Incirlik AB Turkey from 80 to 30, halves personnel to 1400, as Operation Northern Watch ends; said US-Turkish tensions also behind rapid reduction

3 more of Card Pack in custody

Now said Iraq to be divided into 3 zones for peacekeeping/reconstruction, US, UK, Poland; veteran Danish diplomat appointed by UK as South Iraq administrator; Denmark supported the war and considers leading 3,000 troop peacekeeping force

Globalsecurity.org reports US 1st ArmdDiv, now arriving Iraq, will not return to Germany as part of major relaignment of US NATO forces; says new US bases will include Sarafovo [air, Bulgaria], Burgas [sea, Bulgaria], Kogatniceanu [air, Romania], Constanza [sea, Romania] and Krzesiny [training, Ponzan, Poland]

US 3rd ACR in W Iraq still reporting shortages of fuel, oil, sidelining vehicles that should be on patrol

ABC-TV shows famous Saddam bunker with 16-foot concrete roof, palace above destroyed, bunker intact, was not occupied

[May 2] ABC reports Baghdad residents fire in air to welcome return of power, bullets set fire to petrol station; locals blame US. Orbat.com question: given Iraqis tend to speak rhetorically, heatedly, and often irrationally, plus given provocateurs of many shades roaming streets, is mainstream media style of "detached" reporting appropriate? Especially since media cannot tell one local from another or know the antecedents of what he says

Washington Post reports 150-175,000 bbl/day oil flowing, but only adequate for 1/2 Iraq internal requirements; restoration of output held up by lack of security, inability of US contractors to understand local workers/conditions, and already dismal state of repair/maintenance, now made much worse by looting of parts, equipment, vehicles, computers, office furniture etc.

Now said Baghdad museum looting less extensive than first feared; many items returned, many were moved to safe storage; Torah scrolls intact; but 27 major pieces stolen or smashed. Orbat.com note: we have yet to see US mainstream media assign any responsibility to Iraqis for destroying their own country, media refuses to judge Iraqis, but no hesitation shown in judging US for failure to simultaneously protect thousands of potential looting targets while the war was underway

New Palestine PM calls for rejection of violence; militants respond with Tel Aviv suicide bombing, 3 said dead with toll rising; meanwhile Hamas, Islamic Jihad reject Palestine PM's call to disarm

US to relocate ROK bases to Osan, Pusan; in first instance will give up facility in heart of Seoul that is main source of tension; shift may take years for surveys, agreements, new construction etc.

Mainstream media missing Fallujah story: anti-US forces using cover of staged demonstrations to target US troops; media should ask why in case of Monday incident demonstration took place at night; 82nd AbnDiv pulling out to be replaced by 3rd ACR

Israeli intelligence gloomy about new Palestine PM's ability to stop terror says Haartez; he is only one part of the now uneasy 3-sided coalition ruling Palestine - Arafat, Hamas/Islamic Jihad, and the new government

Pakistan police arrest alleged mastermind of Cole bombing, say he was planning attack on US consulate Karachi; turned over to US, ABC says US authorities promise most "intensive" questioning

Former Iraqi Information Minister Sahaf well & alive in Baghdad ad; global fans delighted; the drama continues - he keeps trying to surrender, US forces refuse to arrest him; Arabnews says Gulf TV station Arabiya offers him job

One Basra refinery back to 70,000-bbl/day output; second collapses; oil experts say Iran oil infrastructure very badly run down due sanctions, wonder how Iraqis kept industry going.

All 5,000 permanent US troops to leave Saudi by summer end; shift has already begun; only a small detachment will remain behind in case US facilities at Prince Sultan AB need reactivation

US to reduce troop presence in Germany, Turkey; skeleton facilities for rapid expansion to be set up in Albania, Bulgaria, Czech Republic; Rumsfeld again says US seeks no permanent Iraq bases; BBC says UK to set up air base facilities at Basra IAP; US, UK Navies said to base at Umm Qasr

IRNA says Iran Foreign Minister warns pilgrims not to visit Iraq till popular government formed [another sign Teheran is trying to cooperate with US]

Reports US to relocate operations center from Saudi to Qatar this week; speculation this may signal withdrawal of USAF from Saudi

USA Today says US stabilization force estimated at 125,000 for first year, could drop to 60,000 if Iraq stays peaceful: 17-20,000 Baghdad, 10,000 North, 17,000 Basra/South, detachments other places