Headlines from
Debka
Turkey May reconsider
North Korea Prods Japan Into Buildup
Headlines from Debka March 17
“US officer” Joins Lebanese ex-President for
Last-Ditch Mediation March 17
New Afghan Army Brigades Activated March
17
EU Prepares for Peacekeeping March 17
Debka Says War To Start in 48 Hours March
16
Pakistan to get $305m aid under one-time
waiver March 16
S draws up Iraq list for war crimes
prosecution March 16
Three Al-Qaida Operatives Arrested in
Pakistan March 16
U.S. Renews N. Korea Flights March 15
10 U.S. ships leave Turkey for Gulf March
15
Blair unruffled by resignation threats
March 15
Saddam digging in for the siege of Baghdad
March 14
Iraq Army Plays Large Role in post-Saddam
Reconstruction March 14
US, Britain Massing Colossal Firepower
March 14
Italian commandos hunt for Osama, Mulla Omar,
Hekmatyar March 13
Is the war good for the Jews? March 13
British SAS in Iraq War March 12
How the net is closing on al-Qaeda March
12
1
The daring plan to seize Baghdad's airport
and end a war within days March 11
Korea March 11
Headlines from Debka
Pentagon official to VOA: US forces poised to start offensive any moment are prepared for Baghdad’s possible retaliation with chemical or biological weapons
Turkey and United States close deal permitting US troops to transit Turkish bases for invasion of North Iraq and opening airspace to US and allied warplanes. Accord does not cover participation of Turkish troops in northern front action.
Iraq rejects US ultimatum for Saddam Hussein to go into exile or face war.
US President’s address to nation at 0300 IST will be broadcast by all networks. He is expected to announce diplomatic window for disarming Iraq is closed and Saddam must leave country.
DEBKAfile's Washington sources: Offer may be extended to 48 hours grace for Saddam to depart with small family group if US-British forces assured peaceful entry into Iraq without resistance [Editor: This was the case when President Bush delivered his 2000 Hours Eastern US Time.]
Israel declares partial mobilization of reserves Monday night, especially air force and air defense units. Population is ordered to prepare to seal rooms and await instructions in coming hours. Israeli sources expect war outbreak in matter of hours.
Earlier, US, UK, Spain withdrew joint “second resolution” on Iraq submitted to UN Security Council, holding Baghdad in material breach of Resolution 1441.
UN Secretary Annan orders all UN personnel to leave Iraq.
British parliament votes on military action against Iraq Tuesday morning. Monday, Commons leader Robin Cook resigned senior cabinet post to protest offensive against Iraq without Security Council second resolution.
Turkey May Reconsider
Turkey's parliament might reconsider letting U.S. troops use its territory if war with Iraq breaks out, according to Turkish media reports.
Turkish officials, including the president, prime minister, foreign minister and armed forces chief, met Monday to discuss the possible war with Iraq.
After the meeting, a government spokesman said, "Turkey must fulfill its obligations to its allies," setting off a flood of speculation that parliament would vote on allowing U.S. troops to use Turkish bases.
Parliament has a regular session scheduled for Tuesday, but it was not known whether the troops issue would be on the agenda.
Ankara had been under intense pressure to allow U.S. forces to use its territory to open a northern front against Iraq.
Parliament rejected a measure this month that would have let the United States base 62,000 troops in the country.
N. Korea prods Japan into buildup
Extracts from an article by Paul Wiseman USA Today
TOKYO — Japan is preparing to launch spy satellites, speeding up development of missile defenses, building its commando forces and expanding the range of its air force in response to what it sees as a growing threat from North Korea.
In addition, a few right-wing politicians here are suggesting that Japan build nuclear weapons to counter North Korea's aggressive moves. That idea has almost no public support in the only country ever to have been struck with nuclear weapons. But the topic is no longer taboo.
North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il seems intent on assembling a nuclear arsenal just 400 to 500 miles from Japan. Since October, North Korea has admitted pursuing nuclear weapons, reactivated a nuclear complex mothballed in 1994 and issued warnings about an impending war in an apparent attempt to jolt the United States into signing a non-aggression pact.
Japan's neighbors, mindful of its aggression during World War II, are warily watching its responses to North Korea's actions. China, which has nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, has spoken out against any effort by Japan to develop missile defenses. It says such a program threatens regional stability and could trigger an arms race.
Many leaders here say this country has no choice
but to boost its military capabilities. "Japan ought to act like Rambo," says
Shingo Nishimura, a right-wing member of Japan's parliament. Japan is:
· Speeding up development of a missile-defense system. Since North Korea fired a
missile over Japan in 1998, Japan has been conducting research with the United
States. A test could take place soon.
· Readying spy satellites. Japan has long relied on U.S. satellites but
complains that the Americans are stingy about sharing information. The first
Japanese launch of a spy satellite is set for March 28.
· Beefing up defenses against commando attacks, a threat posed by North Korea's
vast special forces. Last year, Japan created a special 660-man regiment
dedicated to defending its 5,000 islands from amphibious assaults. This year, it
will set up a 300-man special operations unit assigned to defend cities against
guerrilla attacks.
· Working on in-flight refueling of military aircraft, which would allow its
F-15 fighter jets to reach North Korea and come back home. Japan has ordered
four Boeing 767s to be used as tankers.
Return To Top March 18, 2003 March 17, 2003
Headlines from
Debka
“US officer” Joins Lebanese ex-President for
Last-Ditch Mediation
New Afghan Army Brigades Activated
EU Prepares for Peacekeeping
Debka Says War To Start in 48 Hours March
16
Pakistan to get $305m aid under one-time
waiver March 16
S draws up Iraq list for war crimes
prosecution March 16
Three Al-Qaida Operatives Arrested in
Pakistan March 16
U.S. Renews N. Korea Flights March 15
10 U.S. ships leave Turkey for Gulf March
15
Blair unruffled by resignation threats
March 15
Saddam digging in for the siege of Baghdad
March 14
Iraq Army Plays Large Role in post-Saddam
Reconstruction March 14
US, Britain Massing Colossal Firepower
March 14
Italian commandos hunt for Osama, Mulla Omar,
Hekmatyar March 13
Is the war good for the Jews? March 13
British SAS in Iraq War March 12
How the net is closing on al-Qaeda March
12
The daring plan to seize Baghdad's airport
and end a war within days March 11
Korea March 11
Debka Headlines Monday March 17th
Israeli hospitals told to complete sealing process of wards and facilities by Monday morning. Sunday noon, Israel’s First-Aid rescue service Magen David Adom moved command and communications centers to bomb-proof shelters
DEBKAfile’s Military Sources: Full-scale US-British offensive against Iraq is scheduled to begin Monday, 24 hours after Azores summit
First stage: Combined bomber-missile strikes against strategic targets, including government centers, military and civilian communications systems, radio and television broadcasting centers, transport hubs.
Preparations wind up Sunday night to fly and parachute ground troops into Iraq from launching bases in and outside Middle East. US 82nd Airborne Division will be flown in from Afghanistan
At Azores summit, Blair promised Bush British 1st armored division would take part in assault on Basra, vitally augmenting allied southern advance
World has another 24 hours to see if diplomacy will work – Bush at end of Azores summit Sunday with British and Spanish prime ministers. Three leaders declared Security Council Resolution 1441 provided last opportunity for Saddam Hussein to disarm or face serious consequences.
They issued final appeal to international community to issue last strong, unified ultimatum for Saddam’s immediate unconditional disarmament. Bush: He can avert war by leaving Iraq.
Blair pledges protection of Iraq’s territorial integrity. He declared natural resources will remain property of people of Iraq
Earlier Sunday, Chirac's proposal of 30-day deadline for arms inspections rejected instantly by US vice president Cheney: Further delay helps no-one but Saddam Hussein
DEBKAfile Exclusive from Iraqi underground sources: Attempt on life of Saddam’s elder son Uday was made on March 8 at al-Jadariya Boating Club on Tigris River. He is believed to have escaped with injuries from this second assassination attempt, but his three bodyguards were killed.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly reveals: Also on March 8, former Lebanese president Gemayel took US colonel to Saddam’s palace on secret mission to persuade him to leave and prevent war:
If you don’t leave, we’ll target you,” said US Colonel. Saddam replied:”I’ll send you home in a box” and “I’m not afraid to die.” Read resume of conversation and Gemayel mission below
Saddam puts Iraq on war footing day Bush meets British and Spanish premiers for emergency summit in Portuguese Azores. Takes personal command of air and surface-surface missile forces. Four military districts ordered to “destroy any foreign aggression”. Younger son Qusay in command of Baghdad
High terror alert prompts Israel’s closure of Palestinian areas Saturday midnight, 24 hours before Jewish Purim festival begins night of March 17
IDF investigate death of 23-year American activist Rachel Corrie in Gaza Strip town of Rafah whom Palestinian sources say was run over blocking a military bulldozer as it flattened Palestinian sniping positions. A group of peace protesters has been impeding Israel efforts to clear terrain of firing positions.
“US officer” Joins Lebanese ex-President for Last-Ditch Mediation
For full story click Debka.com
A secret Washington-sponsored mediation effort, in progress since early March, has just about run its course in the diplomatic twilight zone behind the emergency summit taking place at Praia Da Vitoria in the Azores Islands of Portugal Sunday, March 16, between US president George W. Bush and the two European prime ministers, Tony Blair of Britain and of Spain. As they three allies prepared to meet, their options were further reduced by a joint statement from France Russia and Germany that they were against submitting Saddam any ultimatum to disarm. Saddam, however, was not waiting. He set the scene for the Azores summit by putting his country on a war footing, taking command of the Iraqi air force and dividing the country into four military districts with orders to “destroy any foreign aggression”. His younger son Qusay was put in command of the key Baghdad district.
That move was the Iraqi ruler’s reply to a secret US mediator’s final effort to persuade him to remove himself in...
New Afghan Army brigades Activated
Forwarded by Gordon A. MacKinlay, extracts from an article by Catherine Davis of the BBC.
The first two brigades of the Afghan national army are ready for deployment after completing 10 weeks of training. At an official ceremony just outside Kabul, the Afghan leader, Hamid Karzai, urged the soldiers to make their contribution to the country's reconstruction.
The two brigades marched proudly past President Karzai and senior military officials, before standing to attention on a muddy plain flanked by snow-capped mountains.
The so-called activation of these two brigades has symbolic significance - one observer said it showed the national army was an established organisation within the government and that it had an authoritative presence in the country.
Around 2,000 soldiers are said to have been trained so far, while thousands of other Afghans carry arms, and local warlords remain powerful figures. Attempts to form a national force have been hampered by a lack of non-partisan volunteers, and divisions over how much representation different ethnic factions should have.
EU prepares for peacekeeping
Forwarded by Gordon A. MacKinlay.
The European Union has signed an agreement with Nato to allow the exchange of confidential information between the two organisations. The accord was signed by the Greek foreign minister George Papandreou - whose country holds the rotating EU presidency - and Nato secretary general George Robertson at a meeting of EU defence ministers in Athens.
The agreement, which comes after months of negotiation, means the Europeans will be able to use Nato's logistical and planning facilities. It will also pave the way for the replacement of Nato peacekeepers by EU troops in Macedonia - in what will be the EU's first ever military operation.
The meeting is another step towards the EU goal of creating a common foreign and security policy.
Around 300 European peacekeeping troops are expected to be deployed in Macedonia later this month, which will be a critical moment in realising this goal.
According to the BBC's Richard Galpin in Athens, if enough progress is made in establishing the EU's military wing, it is possible it will also take over the much bigger Nato peacekeeping operation in Bosnia next year. But the concept of a common foreign and security policy has been thrown into disarray by the Iraq crisis. European member states are deeply divided on how to disarm Saddam Hussein's regime.
Return To Top March 17, 2003 March 16, 2003
Debka Says War
To Start in 48 Hours
Pakistan to get $305m aid under one-time
waiver
US draws up Iraq list for war crimes
prosecution
Three Al-Qaida Operatives Arrested in
Pakistan
U.S. Renews N. Korea Flights March 15
10 U.S. ships leave Turkey for Gulf March
15
Blair unruffled by resignation threats
March 15
Saddam digging in for the siege of Baghdad
March 14
Iraq Army Plays Large Role in post-Saddam
Reconstruction March 14
US, Britain Massing Colossal Firepower
March 14
Italian commandos hunt for Osama, Mulla Omar,
Hekmatyar March 13
Is the war good for the Jews? March 13
Headlines from Debka March 12
British SAS in Iraq War March 12
How the net is closing on al-Qaeda March
12
British troops prepare for Iraq invasion
March 11
The daring plan to seize Baghdad's airport
and end a war within days March 11
Korea March 11
Debka Says War To Start in 48 hours
Debka, the Israeli newsletter, says that the Iraq war will begin in 48 hours. It notes that US and British aircraft are already flying up to 1000 sorties a day, and by any definition this is the start of the war. [What they are hitting is less clear. Editor] US, UK, and Jordanian special forces are already in western Iraq looking for SSMs and other systems capable of delivering CBW agents.
Meanwhile, ABC-TV reports that US commanders have at least been given a benchmark date for the start of war. Though it is a planning date and not an actual date, it is possibly the last step before the offensive.
ABC-TV also reports that Iraqi Kurds have started evacuating their villages, heading for Kurdish controlled territory, and that Iraqis are leaving the country. Shops are being shut down in Baghdad. With reference to the Kurds, the US has apparently told Turkey that all previous arrangements made on account of the Kurds are now off the table. The rumors in this respect have been so extensive, however, its hard to tell what the truth of the matter is. We cannot see, however, how Turkish forces can be allowed into Iraq for whatever reason, particularly since Turkey has opted out of the war.
Pakistan to get $305m aid under one-time waiver
For full story click Jang
NEW YORK: Before leaving for the Azores islands to hold summit with the prime ministers of UK, Spain and Portugal, President George W Bush signed a one-time waiver of the coup-related sanctions for Pakistan.
This waiver would release $305 million assistance allocated by the US Congress in the fiscal year 2003 budget. It will allow Pakistan to purchase some spare-parts or other military ware. "It is not lifting of the sanctions, it is one time waiver specifically for this allocated amount of $305 million," sources told The News.
The sanctions were enforced after General Pervez Musharraf took over by dismissing the Nawaz Sharif government on October 12, 1999 in a bloodless coup. Interestingly these US sanctions continue to be in effect despite the fact that an elected Jamali government is functioning and elections of the Senate and National Assembly are complete in Pakistan.
Bush ordered a waiver of the sanctions, saying it was "important to United States efforts to respond to, deter, or prevent acts of international terrorism."
US draws up Iraq list for war crimes prosecution
WASHINGTON: The Bush administration has drawn up a list of about a dozen senior Iraqi officials, including President Saddam Hussein's two sons, who could be tried for war crimes in postwar Iraq or by an international tribunal, a senior American official said on Saturday.
Top Iraqi military and security commanders are on the list. They include President Saddam Hussein's lieutenant, Ali Hassan al-Majid, known also as "Chemical Ali", who is blamed for a 1988 campaign against restive Kurds in northern Iraq that killed up to 100,000 people.
The most notorious incident of the campaign was a chemical attack on the Kurdish town of Halabja in which 5,000 Iraqi Kurds are said to have died from mustard and other poisonous gases, the State Department said.
Commanders who engineered the occupation of Kuwait in 1990, which was reversed in 1991 by a US-led invasion of Iraq, and those in Saddam's "small clique" who brutally extinguished a Shiite uprising in southern Iraq in 1991, also are on the list, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
They would be detained and could be tried either by Iraqi courts or internationally, or possibly both, the official said.
Saddam's two sons, Odai and Qusai, also are on the list.
Three al-Qaeda operatives held in Lahore
[No one can doubt the Pakistanis are at last starting to genuinely cooperate with the US in the matter of the Al Qaida. Without any intention of embarrassing our Pakistani friends, may we nonetheless ask why so many of these terrorists have sought refuge in Pakistan in the first place? Editor]
ISLAMABAD: Pakistani authorities said on Saturday they had arrested a leading al-Qaeda member, Moroccan national, Yasir al-Jaziri in Lahore. An intelligence source said the capture was made thanks to information received from another senior al-Qaeda figure, Khalid Sheikh Muhammad, who was arrested in Rawalpindi two weeks ago and is now in US custody.
Khalid is often portrayed as number three in al-Qaeda, behind Osama bin Laden and his deputy Ayman Al Zawahiri, and is suspected of being a leading figure behind the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States. "He (al-Jaziri) is less important than Khalid Sheikh Muhammad but he is quite an important person," Secretary Interior Ministry Tasneem Noorani told Reuters. Noorani said al-Jaziri had been picked up in Gulberg suburb of Lahore on Saturday evening.
Information Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed said al-Jaziri was perhaps one level down from Muhammad in the organisation. "This is the biggest catch since Khalid Sheikh," the intelligence source said, adding a second man, an Afghan called Gulzeb, alias Jaffar, had also been captured.
The intelligence source said a third man, a Pakistani who fought with the Taliban in Afghanistan, was also arrested in a second raid in the Gulberg area later on Saturday night. Al-Jaziri is thought to be involved in al-Qaeda's business operations, and the intelligence source described him as a US-educated "computer whiz". Intelligence sources said local experts were still trying to crack the security codes on two laptops and some CDs which were found at the one-room apartment. Another source said travellers cheques and maps of "various installations" around the country had also been seized.
There have been a series of bomb attacks, mainly on Western and Christian targets in Pakistan since September 11, 2001, and al Qaeda has been linked to several of those attacks. "We were chasing him for some three months and this raid was conducted along with American FBI," one source said. The FBI is helping Pakistan track down al-Qaeda members who may be hiding in the country, but Pakistani authorities deny FBI agents actually take part in raids.
The Senior Superintendent of Police in Lahore said his men had not taken part in the operation. "I didn't even know an arrest had been made, and I still don't know who has been arrested or why," Aftab Cheema told Reuters.
Return To Top March 16, 2003 March 15, 2003
U.S. Renews N.
Korea Flights
10 U.S. ships leave Turkey for Gulf after
appeal by Bush fails
Blair unruffled by resignation threats
Saddam digging in for the siege of Baghdad
March 14
Iraq Army Plays Large Role in post-Saddam
Reconstruction March 14
US, Britain Massing Colossal Firepower
March 14
Italian commandos hunt for Osama, Mulla Omar,
Hekmatyar March 13
Is the war good for the Jews? March 13
Headlines from Debka March 12
British SAS in Iraq War March 12
How the net is closing on al-Qaeda March
12
Thirty Five ‘Terror Groups’ Active In India
March 12 Last pieces in place March 11
British troops prepare for Iraq invasion
March 11
1st ID sets up new base near Iraqi border
March 11
The daring plan to seize Baghdad's airport
and end a war within days March 11
Korea March 11
U.S. Renews N. Korea Flights
For full story please click Associated Press
WASHINGTON - North Korea made no effort to interfere with a resumption of U.S. Air Force reconnaissance flights off its coast in international airspace, officials said Thursday.
Adm. Thomas Fargo, commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that the reconnaissance missions had resumed Wednesday, but he declined to discuss details of the flights or actions taken to enhance their safety.
Other officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the U.S. plane encountered no interference.
Japan Threats North Korea Sanctions
TOKYO: Japan threatened to impose economic sanctions on North Korea if it would test a ballistic missile, said sources Friday.
Possible sanctions would include a halt to cash transfers and exports to the North Korea, said the government sources quoted by Japanese media. North Korea tested two short-range missiles in recent weeks, prompting speculation it is preparing to launch a longer-range version similar to one it fired over Japan in 1998.
10 U.S. ships leave Turkey for Gulf after appeal by Bush fails
For full story, please click World Tribune
ANKARA — Turkey and the United States have agreed on rules of engagement in northern Iraq but have failed to agree on Washington's request to deploy 62,000 American troops in Turkey.
Ankara, despite a personal appeal by President George Bush, has also not agreed to a U.S. request for use of Turkey's air space. U.S. officials said that in response Washington has ordered that 10 naval ships leave the Turkish region and head for the Persian Gulf.
Turkish government sources said Ankara and Washington have agreed on the zones of operation by Turkish military forces as well as their mission.
Under the agreement, Turkey has pledged to keep its troops within 20 kilometers of the Iraqi border. Turkey now has more than 20,000 troops who operate within a 40 kilometer zone inside Iraq.
But The U.S.-Turkish accord includes a commitment by Ankara not to attack Kurdish or any other civilian targets in the area. The accord also calls on Turkey to provide help to refugees.
The sources said the United States has agreed that Turkey can use force for self-defense to protect the Turkmen community and prevent the occupation of oil regions in northern Iraq. Turkey is also allowed to use force to prevent the establishment of an independent Kurdish state.
Blair unruffled by resignation threats
Story by Rashmee Z. Ahmed, writing in the Times of India
LONDON: Tony Blair’s leadership remained paradoxically unchallenged on Friday even as he was told he could face a second Cabinet resignation if he goes to war against Iraq without a second United Nations resolution.
Late on Friday, Downing Street officials confirmed that Blair, President Bush and Spanish Prime Minister Aznar would be meeting in a neutral third country for a Sunday summit to thrash out the way ahead to disarming Saddam Hussein with or without a United Nations resolution.
Bush is expected to meet Blair and Aznar, sponsors of the disputed second United Nations resolution on Iraqi disarmament, in the Azores, the nine islands owned by Portugal in the north Atlantic. The Portuguese Prime Minister is to chair the summit.
On Thursday, Blair, pilloried in a gloating French press as the only likely pre-conflict "casualty" of George W. Bush's impending Gulf War II, was told that Robin Cook would resign along with Clare Short.
Cook, former foreign secretary and currently leader of the House of Commons, threatened to resign less than a week after his cabinet colleague, International Development Secretary Clare Short went public with her criticism of Blair’s "recklessness" in pushing a war agenda.
On Friday afternoon, Downing Street officials said "fluid and dynamic" diplomacy over Iraq was continuing, even as they revealed Blair had spoken to French president Jacque Chirac for the first time in days. Till then, Blair’s incandescent officials had accused the French of "poisoning" the diplomatic bloodstream by threatening to veto any future motion on Iraq.
The intense and fraught diplomatic choreography is expected to boost Blair’s position even as a significant section of his governing Labour Party expressed dissatisfaction with his hawkish attitude to war. But political observers said it was "remarkable" that criticism of Blair was still not credibly expected to boil up and destabilise the Labour Partys most successful two-term landslide prime minister in years.
On Friday, Blair’s biographer John Rentoul said Blair could even "emerge stronger" from a war, even though there was an outside chance of a leadership challenge in the autumn.
"There is more than a touch in this of what people said about Margaret Thatcher," said Rentoul, "You don't always agree with her, but at least you know where she stands."
In virtual reaffirmation, by the end of the working week, Blair’s most outspoken Cabinet minister, Clare Short, emerged from a meeting with the Prime Minister saying she was "still in government".
Return To Top March 15, 2003 March 14, 2003
Saddam digging
in for the siege of Baghdad
Iraq Army Plays Large Role in post-Saddam
Reconstruction
US, Britain Massing Colossal Firepower
The reality is war, and soon March 13
Italian commandos hunt for Osama, Mulla Omar,
Hekmatyar March 13
Is the war good for the Jews? March 13
Headlines from Debka March 12
British SAS in Iraq War March 12
How the net is closing on al-Qaeda March
12
Thirty Five ‘Terror Groups’ Active In India
March 12
We are Hours Behind Osama: Pakistan ISI
March 12
US, Indian marines to hold joint exercises
March 12
Last pieces in place March 11
British troops prepare for Iraq invasion
March 11
1st ID sets up new base near Iraqi border
March 11
The daring plan to seize Baghdad's airport
and end a war within days March 11
Korea March 11
Saddam Digging In For Seige of Baghdad
From Times of London by Michael Evans
PRESIDENT Saddam Hussein wants to suck coalition
troops into street warfare in Baghdad, Britain’s top military commander in the
Gulf said yesterday.
“They’re going for a Stalingrad siege,” said Air Marshal Brian Burridge,
referring to one of the bloodiest battles of the Second World War, when more
than a million Russians and Germans died during six months of fighting in the
streets of the Soviet City of Stalingrad.
Acording to intelligence reports, the Iraqi President has constructed two
concentric defensive lines around Baghdad. They are manned by about five
Republican Guard divisions of some 40,000 soldiers. Another defensive ring
inside the city consists of about 20,000 Special Republican Guard troops
dedicated to protecting Saddam and his regime.
Air Marshal Burridge was confident that the Iraqi leader’s strategy would fail.
“They want to entice us into urban warfare. But that makes two assumptions: that
there will be hand-to-hand fighting and that those ordered to do this will do so
willingly. There have to be doubts.”
He said that such “static” defences did not pose a major obstacle to a coalition
force equipped with the most advanced technology. “We know where every moving
part is and technology allows us to go round it,” he said.
US commanders have talked of mounting focused attacks on the regime’s
strongholds in the city, using heavy armour as well as airpower — strike
aircraft using missiles guided by forces on the ground with laser target
markers. The coalition’s battle plan did not envisage playing Saddam at his own
game, said Air Marshal Burridge, a former Nimrod pilot who hunted Soviet
submarines during the Cold War.
In his first interview since his appointment as head of the 45,000 British
troops waiting to go to war, he also disclosed that his biggest fear was that
Saddam would use chemical weapons against his own people to slow the invasion.
He predicted that liberated Iraqis would lead British and US troops to Saddam’s
weapons of mass destruction. He said that British troops would play a
significant role in the fighting and that several thousand US Marines would
serve under a British commander.
Looking relaxed despite the prospect of imminent war, the 53-year-old UK
National Contingent Commander was speaking in his sparse office inside his
headquarters in Qatar at Camp as Sayliyah, a security zone protected by layers
of armed guards and chicanes of concrete blocks where every approaching vehicle,
save the Air Marshal’s Jeep, is rigorously searched.
“If there is a war and they fight, we’ll hit them hard,” he said. “I don’t want
to create expectations (of a short war). We are innately cautious and
conservative for a number of reasons, but I would like to think that we’re deft
and professional and clever enough to do it quickly.” He promised that the
campaign would not “lay waste” to Iraq. The aim was to disarm Saddam, not to
destroy the country.
…Air Marshal Burridge acknowledged that the Iraqi leader was “a dangerous
bastard” and there was a possibility that he had a surprise up his sleeve. His
greatest fear was that Saddam might launch a chemical attack against his own
people in order to divert advancing US and British divisions. Coalition troops
could cope with a chemical or biological attack because they had the right
clothing and equipment, but the Iraqi people had no way of protecting
themselves.
However, after months of detailed planning alongside General Tommy Franks, the
commander of US Central Command who will lead the coalition force, Air Marshal
Burridge said that there would be a swift response at the first sign of Saddam
resorting to chemical weapons against the Iraqi population. It would be ironic
if he used the very weapons he was now denying he possessed, he added.
He played down the threat of Iraq burning its oil wells. “Setting fire to oil
wells is not a military weapon, it’s an economic and environmental one. If
Saddam’s boys want to torch their oilfields, I think the Iraqi people will have
something to say about that.”
…He added: “Human intelligence (Iraqis) will be the key. The weapons of mass
destruction are there and we will find them.” As soon as the coalition troops
crossed the border and progressed towards Baghdad, the areas behind them would
be in a “post-war” situation, he said, so that Iraqi people with knowledge of
where some weapons might be hidden would be free to speak out.
He described the period immediately after an invasion as a “rolling miasma of
change”, with people coming forward with information while coalition forces
provided humanitarian aid. Iraqi troops who surrendered would be treated as
prisoners of war under the Geneva Convention and would be well looked after,
although he admitted that mass surrenders would be one of three obstacles to a
rapid advance.
The other two were having to deal with displaced civilians and confronting the
aftermath of a chemical attack on the Iraqi people.
Iraqi army plays large role in U.S. plans for a post-Saddam reconstruction
European
Stars & Stripes by Lisa Burgess
ARLINGTON, Va. — Bush administration officials unveiled plans Tuesday for
managing Iraq after a war, describing a scenario that would keep most of the
country’s civilian officials in place, paying the Iraqi military to rebuild
damaged infrastructure, and sending hundreds of “free Iraqi” expatriots to the
provinces to act as liaisons with the U.S.-run “interim transitional civil
administration.”
The reconstruction plans, which were described to reporters by two senior
defense officials at a Pentagon briefing, were the first public glimpse of just
how the U.S. government intends to manage Iraq after any war that eliminates
Saddam Hussein.
The entire rebuilding effort, which is dubbed the Office of Reconstruction and
Humanitarian Assistance, is in the hands of the Pentagon, which was directed
Jan. 20 by President Bush to set up an office for postwar planning.
The office, headed by retired Army Lt. Gen. Jay Garner, “started very slowly,”
but there are now about 200 people from a variety of military and civilian
agencies on its staff, a one of the officials told reporters.
The office’s goal is “to stay as long as necessary to be able to stand up a
government of Iraq, and get out as fast as we can,” the official said.
Some of the office’s personnel are already in the Persian Gulf, preparing for an
immediate entry into Iraq when the fighting stops, even though Bush has not
declared war.
The group’s plans call for a single civil administrator deputy — Garner — to
report to Gen. Tommy Franks, commander of U.S. Central Command.
Beneath Garner are three different U.S. coordinators, whose names a Pentagon
spokesman said it would be “premature” to announce.
The trio includes a civil administration coordinator, who will deal principally
with public health, law enforcement, commerce, foreign affairs, justice,
education, agriculture, banking, and economic development; a humanitarian
operations coordinator, who will deal with emergency relief, refugees, and civil
affairs; and a reconstruction coordinator, who will be in charge of issues such
as energy, power, roads and waterways.
Iraqi soldiers, who will be placed on the U.S. payroll, the official said, will
do the actual rebuilding of Iraq.
“Our goal is to have a good portion of the Iraq regular army — not the
Republican Guard — rebuild their own country,” the official said. “This also
allows us not to demobilize immediately and put a lot of poor people on the
street.”
A separate triad of U.S. coordinators will be in charge of the north, south, and
central regions of Iraq, respectively, assisted by “over 100 free Iraqis” who
now live in the United States, Great Britain, and elsewhere, the official said.
The expatriot Iraqis will be sent to 17 Iraqi provinces and to Baghdad to
coordinate with local officials on the best way to rebuild and manage the
regions, the official said.
The reconstruction office will also place “two or three free Iraqis with the
right skill sets [and who] understand the democratic process” in each of Iraq’s
existing government ministries, the officials said.
The free Iraqis will act as advisers and “facilitate” the ministry’s operation.
But the ministries will continue to be run by indigenous Iraqis, he said.
Asked why Iraqis would ever accept a new government run by the same people who
operate the ministries under Saddam Hussein, the official said, “There will be a
vetting process” of ministry officials, “but we anticipate that the really bad
people won’t be there when we get there.”
Recruiting and hiring the free Iraqis is going very slowly, the official said.
“It’ll happen, but it’s not happening as fast as I had hoped,” he said.
And none of the free Iraqis hired so far come from the Iraqi National Congress,
which is one of the most vocal opposition groups, the official said.
The Bush administration initially had high hopes that the INC would provide the
core of a new Iraq government, but has grown frustrated with the group’s
infighting, conflicts with other opposition groups, and refusal to voice
unqualified support for U.S. plans for postwar Iraq.
The official declined to estimate how much the initial reconstruction will cost,
but said Iraqi oil revenue might cover some of the tab.
US, Britain Massing Colossal Firepower
By Matt Kelley, reproduced from Globalsecurity.org
WASHINGTON - The battle in Iraq would pit 21st century weaponry against Cold War firepower. The U.S. and British forces massed on Iraq's borders are armed with missiles and bombs guided by satellites and lasers, while Iraqi defenders depend on bazookas, machine guns and far less sophisticated missiles.
The biggest unknown in the aging Iraqi arsenal: chemical and biological weapons.
An invading coalition force would have more than enough firepower to overwhelm Saddam Hussein's deteriorating military, Pentagon officials and private analysts say.
Hundreds of warplanes are ready to rain satellite- and laser-guided bombs onto Iraqi targets, as well as perhaps as many as 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles and even some 21,000-pound behemoths that could wipe out hundreds of troops in one blast.
The United States has more than 1,000 M1 Abrams tanks and scores of AH-64 Apache helicopters which can destroy Iraq's aging, Soviet-built tanks from beyond the horizon. Some 270,000 U.S. and British troops are in the region to face an Iraqi army that's fewer than 400,000 soldiers and widely reported to be demoralized, poorly trained and inadequately equipped.
"It's somewhere under 50 percent of what its capability was in 1991 during the Gulf War in terms of conventional capability," Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said last month.
Iraq's only military advance since a U.S.-led coalition ejected Saddam's forces from Kuwait a dozen years ago has been in its chemical and biological weapons, Rumsfeld and other Bush administration officials say. Many analysts agree.
"There's a higher risk of Saddam using chemical or biological weapons. That's different from the last war," said Anthony Cordesman, an expert on Iraq's military at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
That's one reason behind the massive military buildup around Iraq: convincing Saddam's military that their defeat is so certain that using chemical or biological weapons would not be an advantage. Through news conferences, leaflets, broadcasts and other psychological warfare, the Pentagon is sending Iraqi units the message that anyone involved in the use of weapons of mass destruction would be treated harshly, as a war criminal, after an American victory.
Pentagon officials say they plan a ferocious attack if President Bush orders a war: thousands of bombs and missiles hitting Iraq each day, coupled with a swift drive toward Baghdad by armored ground units protected by air power. It's a strategy designed to produce "shock and awe" in the enemy, military officers say, persuading them to give up.
"The ability to drop such a high concentration of precision weapons on such a large scale certainly will induce an effect the likes of which I don't think has ever been seen in modern warfare," said former Army officer Andrew Krepinevich, a military analyst at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.
That precision air power includes the Joint Direct Attack Munition or JDAM, a satellite-guided bomb that was developed after the 1991 Persian Gulf War. The military plans to use thousands of JDAMs over Iraq - helping to make 80 percent or more of the munitions dropped there precision-guided, versus fewer than one in five during the previous war with Iraq.
The advances in precision-guided weapons also mean that fewer warplanes can hit more targets. And Pentagon planners say the precision will help avoid civilian casualties, as well.
Much of the coalition firepower on the ground is aimed at Baghdad, where officials and analysts say Saddam and his Republican Guard may try to make a last stand with bloody, urban combat. Although the narrow streets and tall buildings of a city lessen some American battle advantages, U.S. military officials say they expect to prevail in a battle for Baghdad.
"The Third Mechanized Division would be driving into Baghdad with Abrams tanks against a Republican Guard armed with bazookas and machine guns," said military analyst John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org. "The difference is, the last Gulf War it was an army against an army. This time, it's an army against a secret police force."
Still, even a small force can create big problems for the U.S. military with tactics like using weapons of mass destruction or sabotaging crucial infrastructure - a tactic Rumsfeld and other Pentagon officials have repeatedly accused Saddam of planning.
"You don't need large forces to sabotage dams. You don't need large forces to sabotage oil fields," Krepinevich said. "They can be remotely detonated, and it cost us about $10 billion to clean up the oil fields in Kuwait."
Return To Top March 14, 2003 March 13, 2003
The reality is
war, and soon
Italian commandos hunt for Osama, Mulla Omar,
Hekmatyar
Is the war good for the Jews?
Headlines from Debka March 12
British SAS in Iraq War March 12
How the net is closing on al-Qaeda March
12
Thirty Five ‘Terror Groups’ Active In India
March 12
We are Hours Behind Osama: Pakistan ISI
March 12
US, Indian marines to hold joint exercises
March 12
Last pieces in place March 11
British troops prepare for Iraq invasion
March 11
1st ID sets up new base near Iraqi border
March 11
The daring plan to seize Baghdad's airport
and end a war within days March 11
Korea March 11
Khalid newest inmate at infamous Bagram
prison March 10
The reality is war, and soon
By Richard M. Bennett of RBMedia
It would seem that unless there is a dramatic last minute diplomatic breakthrough in the next few days, the United States will go to war on or about the 18th March. It has been suggested that the final decision was taken by President Bush last weekend and at a time when his British ally, Tony Blair was squirming on a hook of increasing public hostility to war and growing opposition from within his own party.
The Pentagon on Monday apparently placed all US combat units on a heightened state of alert and with direct orders to prepare for operations to begin next Tuesday. It is unlikely that even a complete climbdown by Saddam Hussein can now save Iraq from invasion and the statement made by Donald Rumsfeld that the United States was ultimately prepared to launch a pre-emptive and largely un-provoked attack even without Britain's involvement should not be taken as a slip of the tongue nor less an incautious comment. Rumsfeld was merely playing 'real-politics' and reminding America's opponents, and friends, that this is a game with high stakes. Everyone, even Washington's closest allies, is expendable. President Bush expects to be able to bask in the limelight of military success by the end of March and that would also take the immediate pressure off Tony Blair.
However, as with Vietnam and Afghanistan short term military success provided by modern technology and a fortunate lack of serious opposition, is soon overtaken by the realities of occupation, continuing conflict, political in-fighting, economic consequences and in this case, the growing hostility of a humiliated Islamic world.
While regime change in Baghdad features high on the list of priorities, control of vital resources and gaining a dominant military position in the region are both of undoubtedly far greater significance. The risks involved to United States interests would be unacceptable if ridding the region of just one more dictator and his small stock of weapons of mass destruction were the only items on the agenda. The enormous changes in the political structure of the world and the startling growth in military technology particularly in the last decade has provided the United States with a window of opportunity to seize the geo-strategic highground.
In the real world of power politics and the projection of military might for national, rather than international interests, the painfully and costly lessons of Korea and Vietnam have been fully taken on board. It is doubtful whether pre-emptive military action on a grand scale has been constrained by any moral repugnance or a pricking of conscience over the deaths of civilians or even civilians in uniform, reluctant conscripted young soldiers. It has only been the lack of the means to win a war quickly and at minimum cost that has done so. A huge leap forward in technology, a massive reassessment of battlefield tactics and the development of new strategies has multiplied the United States international reach, speed of reaction and near total dominance in warfighting techniques.
Iraq is to be just the first pawn in a deadly new chess game to achieve control of the worlds vital natural resources, international waterways and to establish military dominance of key strategic regions. Traditional enemies such as Russia are now weak and divided, while the burgeoning power of China is still some way from becoming a serious threat. Washington no longer needs NATO or Europe and with the possible exception of keeping Britain onside, now feels it has the economic and military rationale for taking decisive action with or without the sanction of the United Nations.
These comments should not be seen as a direct criticism of US policy, but more as an acceptance of the newly changed realities of the world in the first decade of the 21st Century. Greece, Rome, Turkey, China, Spain, France, Britain, Germany and the Soviet Union have all at one or another over the last three thousand years seen an opportunity to take centre stage, whether to create a new empire or simply to be the dominant military power. The United States is the only nation capable or with the will, to take such a leading role right now. Whether it will prove any more adept than previous world powers at dealing with the long term consequences of this 'assumption of the purple' remains to be seen.
Italian commandos hunt for Osama, Mulla Omar, Hekmatyar
An article by Aslam Khan writing in the Jang
ISLAMABAD: An all-out hunt for Osama bin Laden, Mulla Muhammad Omar and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border has been launched by a team of crack commandos from Italy, well-placed sources revealed on Wednesday.
The Italian Alpine commandos have been operating in south-east Afghanistan near Balochistan border regions for about a week in an increasingly volatile area. "The commandos have been specially selected for their features that match the Pashtuns of the area and have familiarised themselves to the terrain and native milieu," a well-placed source told The News, requesting that his identity not be revealed. "They have launched a systematic hunt to capture Bin Laden, Omar and Hekmatyar dead or alive," he said claiming that American FBI and military officials have been combing the area literally for each person for the wanted men. He added the Americans are convinced that Osama and others are changing places almost daily moving along the border and there is a strong chance that one of them may be captured dead or alive in the next few days.
The source said Alpine commandos were in action along the border with Pakistan since December 2002. They appear as Pashtuns, wear shalwar qameez and sometimes even turbans and local shawls. The hunt is based on American plans. The commandos study roads and mountain passes, inspect caves and tunnels and mix up with villagers. With their computer, via satellite they transmit reports to the US Air Force base in Bagram. "We may hear some news soon," the source added.
Agencies add: The US and its allies intensified search for Osama bin Laden fearing they may respond to war against Iraq with attacks. Pakistani officials denied an Iran Radio report, which quoted a Pakistani leader Agha Murtaza Poya saying in a telephone interview to AP: "Bin Laden is in custody and announcement of his arrest will be made between March 17 and 18th."
Secretary Pakistan Interior Ministry Iftikhar Ahmad told AP: "Poya is wrong." Pakistan's intelligence co-ordinator in the war on terror Brig Javed Iqbal Cheema said: "It is not correct. This is just not true."
Pakistan Information Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed also denied the report. He said: "Osama is not in Pakistan. We have no information about Osama and if someone has this information he should tell us." The CIA spokesman Bill Harlow said in Washington: "We have absolutely no information to substantiate that."
Similarly, US military spokesman Army Master Sgt Richard Breach said at Bagram Air Force Base in Afghanistan: "We have no information that Osama has been captured." Pakistani forces are, however, concentrating in Balochistan between Quetta and the Iranian border and also near Balikot and Chitral in the NWFP.
Is the war good for the Jews?
By Gideon Samet writing in Israel’s Haaretz
The question of what is good for the Jews was always slightly flawed. It assumed that even if something were bad for the rest of the world but good for the Jews, that would be just fine. After all, while we were suffering, the world always remained silent. The imminent war in Iraq - a military event that has had more promos than any other in history - has already conceived a new Elders of Zion text: the Jews are promoting the war from behind the global curtain because it is good for Israel. Aside from the rest of this libel's ugly shortcomings, the entire thesis is rather flimsy. Bush's war on Iraq is not good for Israel, either.
It may benefit current Israeli policy. Iraq does not pose a risk to Israel's security, but the apocalypse that America will rain down on its satanic rival will reshuffle the deck and enable the Sharon government to engage in its favorite pastime: buying time and disrupting any chance of negotiations with the Palestinians. No matter what happens, that will be the end result. If America succeeds, an arrogant White House will flash a V-sign with a big "We told you so."
At that point, everything will play out according to the American scenario. Indeed, even without the Zionist conspiracy theory, the influence wielded by conservative and right-wing Jews - occupying strong positions in Washington's decision-making echelons and pushing against a compromise on the territories - will grow substantially. And Bush, not an enthusiastic supporter of pressuring Israel, will mainly be interested in being reelected by a more convincing majority than in the November 2000 election fiasco.
If the war is unsuccessful, the beaten Bush would have neither momentum nor appetite to face another regional mess that would entail, among other things, pressuring the Palestinians and enraging the Jews, because of simultaneous pressure on Israel.
Yet, the American president is not expected to come out of the war in good shape regardless of its result. A simple, clean victory is not possible. If Bush chooses a "surgical" air blitz, the slaughter of civilians will make it very difficult for him to bask in his victory, and most certainly so if Saddam is not vaporized in his Muqata. We are, then, at a historic crossroads, not only because of developments of far-reaching significance between the United States and Europe and other opponents of the war ("With France like these," wrote one American newspaper this week, "Washington doesn't need enemies").
It is an important crossroads also with regard to the question of what's good - or bad - for the Jews.
One of the main lessons that the right-wing Israeli government can borrow from the miserable chain of events leading to this war is the necessity, justified by Western leaders, of liquidating the leadership of the Axis of Evil. The litany of Bush's justifications for a war is growing thinner and thinner as the justifications themselves change. The reasons have recently been reduced to only two: the fact (if that's what it is) that Saddam is endangering the security of America and the West, and that America has the right to defend itself by force without the international community's consent. For Sharon, there is no better spin than this. An American president going to a war of choice is a strange reflection of Arik's portrait, and may very well prove helpful to Sharon.
On Monday, the prime minister enlisted the six million of the Holocaust and the West's appeasement of Hitler to justify the liquidation of Saddam. The equation was drawn not only between the Nazi and the Iraqi dictators, but also, with obvious association, it returned to that well-known parallel drawn by Menachem Begin between the leader of the Palestinians and Adolf Hitler.
Even though Saddam is now the only matter of international interest to the White House, the American media has been commenting recently on the shift of nuance and content in Bush's Middle East pronouncements.
He clearly indicated that there would be a postponement in the handling of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He has grown more flexible in his attitude toward settlements, so much so that Martin Indyk, the former U.S. ambassador in Tel Aviv, declared that the Sharon government "can breathe a sign of relief." When the current leadership is able to breathe a sign of relief about the conflict, that will not be good for the Jews. Behind the facade of liquidating the evil man on the banks of the Tigris and the Euphrates, Israelis will be called upon to continue paying the price of the local war, in our neighboring West Bank.
Return To
Top March 13, 2003
March 12, 2003
Headlines from
Debka
British SAS in Iraq War
How the net is closing on al-Qaeda
Thirty Five ‘Terror Groups’ Active In India
We are Hours Behind Osama: Pakistan ISI
US, Indian marines to hold joint exercises
Last pieces in place March 11
British troops prepare for Iraq invasion
March 11
1st ID sets up new base near Iraqi border
March 11
The daring plan to seize Baghdad's airport
and end a war within days March 11
Korea March 11
Collaboration Par Excellence and Pakistan's
Strategic Dilemma March 10
Khalid newest inmate at infamous Bagram
prison March 10
Debka Says Turkey Agrees to US Troops,
Equipment Being Unloaded March 10
Baghdad Targets Picked If Hussein Holes Up
There February 8
Headlines From Debka
US Air Force carries out first test of new super-bomb, 21,000lb MOAB, the largest non-nuclear bomb in existence, in Florida Tuesday MOAB, which is high precision, dwarfs 15,000lb “Daisy Cutter” dropped on Taliban in Afghan War
Rumsfeld, in Pentagon briefing Tuesday, says US may have to fight Iraq war without British participation although question is being reviewed on a daily basis.
Also: We have privately contacted anti-Saddam elements in Iraqi military on their role in war and integration in post-war administration
US military chief Myers: Northern option will go into effect with or without Turkey. He warned Iraqi army personnel using biological, chemical or nuclear/radiological weapons they will be tried for war crimes.
After war, US dollar will not be legal tender, but frozen Iraqi funds drawn upon to run country
Iraqi fighter jets threatening US surveillance flights Tuesday forced two U-2 reconnaissance planes to return to base
US rejects postponement of Security Council vote on March 17 deadline ultimatum for Saddam beyond this week. Vote expected by Friday. France and Russian promise to exercise veto. White House spokesman calls “non-starter” proposal by Council waverers to extend deadline to 45 days
War preparations gain momentum. American warships in Middle East regional waters were ordered to go on battle readiness from midday Tuesday. A US defense official reported Iraqis seen moving explosives into Iraq’s northern and southern oil fields.
British SAS in Iraq War
Extracts from an article in Military.com
With the exception of Delta Force, however, very few special forces are expected to operate inside Baghdad, partly because of lessons learned from Somalia in 1993. Baghdad, a city of some 4 million people into which Saddam reportedly plans to lure allied troops and destroy them, is not the kind of place where troops of any kind intend to fight house to house as Saddam appears to be preparing for. "I doubt we will even go to Baghdad. There are plenty of other places to go," said the senior SAS source.
No. 22 Regiment SAS, totaling no more than 150 troops in their three Saber squadrons, with another 150 or more in immediate support, is currently at the SAS forward mounting base in Cyprus, from where the troops can be flown north across Turkey for operations in northern Iraq, or south across Israel and Jordan into western Iraq.
SAS forward operating bases are believed to be in Kuwait, ready to move into Jordan for operations into western Iraq, or are already in Jordan. They are being backed up by close air support from seven RAF Harrier GR7 jump jets, now in Kuwait. They are earmarked to move into directly to the sprawling H3 airfield in western Iraq, once it is seized early in the war.
The British Special Boat Squadron, about 120 strong, is believed to be in Bahrain and Kuwait, where specialist divers are preparing to tackle the underwater mines and obstacles expected to have been placed by Iraqis in an effort to stop an amphibious assault into the Basra area.
Other SBS units are preparing to be flown by helicopter deep inland to keep a close eye on enemy activity that could affect air and sea landings, and to sabotage key Iraqi defenses.
British special forces have abandoned the sexy little 'dune buggy' vehicles they once used because they had suspension problems, and are back to using desertized Land Rovers equipped with .50 cal machine guns. The Land Rovers can be transported in C-130 Hercules transports and CH-47 Chinook helicopters.
U.S. and British planners intend to create a number of forward air refueling points, or FARPs, first around the edges of Iraq, and then deeper into Kuwait. This will allow a huge number of helicopters to take troops deep into Iraq and Apache attack helicopters to take on Iraqi tanks before allied tanks can reach them.
Over the last few days the Americans have tipped their hand on some of their plans by moving troops into Tabuk airfield in northern western Saudi Arabia -- at 250 miles the closest point to Baghdad from outside Iraq to the south, and to a previously used helicopter base near Ar'Ar. Both are expected to be developed as FARPs.
In Gulf War I the most fabled SAS exploit was that of the eight-man Bravo Two Zero patrol, whose mission to track down Scud missiles in the western Iraq desert was compromised when the British team was discovered by a shepherd boy who raised the alarm. In a story told and retold many times over the years -- and which has made several of the survivors rich and famous -- the patrol fought a running battle with Iraqi troops, killing scores and boosting the image of SAS soldiers as the 'toughest in the world,' even though three of the patrol died. The patrol's main failure was its inadequate high frequency radios, which left it isolated and unable to be rescued. This time, according to a senior SAS source, British special forces will all use encrypted satellite communications and other 'network centric' systems that have dramatically improved the capabilities of both special and regular forces.
How the net is closing on al-Qaeda
For full story, click The Age of Australia
While hiding out in the remote badlands of Pakistan, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed was known to communicate with subordinates in the al-Qaeda network by sending couriers on donkeys.
But, in mid-February, the operational commander of the September 11 attacks on Washington and New York came down from the hills. He was drawn back to the city of Rawalpindi not just because of his well-documented taste for high living, but, more importantly, his need to use the modern tools of the information age: emails, laptops, mobile phones. This return visit to the 21st century would prove his undoing.
Part of al-Qaeda's reputation as the world's most formidable terrorist force has been built on its adaptation of computer technology, such as encrypted emails, to provide a clandestine information flow across a diffuse global network of semi-autonomous cells. Mohammed, a qualified engineer known as "The Brain", became a pivot in this structure.
It is believed he made a decision a fortnight ago to emerge from a desolate rural refuge near the Afghan border regions, and set up a new hide-out in the twin city to Pakistan's capital, Islamabad. Here, taking cover in the home of a mid-level Islamic politician, and within a few blocks of the official residence of Pakistan's President, General Pervez Musharraf, Mohammed buried himself discreetly amid Pakistan's officer class in Rawalpindi's upper-crust neighbourhoods of colonial bungalows and tree-lined streets inherited from the glory days of the British Raj. It was the biggest gamble of his career in terror. That he chose also to re-enter cyberspace, logging into al-Qaeda's elaborate computer networks, doubled the risk.
For months, Mohammed had been the predominant focus of the co-ordinated international campaign, led by Washington, to hunt down the ringleaders.
However, The Age has been told by reliable sources that the laying of this trap went far beyond conventional computer investigations. According to these sources, so sophisticated was the strategy to pinpoint Mohammed's whereabouts that it included orders for a government-controlled internet service provider in Islamabad to be blacked out for several hours late last week.
Unable to reply to urgent email messages, it is believed either Mohammed or one of the two cohorts captured alongside him may have dialled out on a mobile phone. The awesome electronic eavesdropping capacity of US satellite technology did the rest and, early on Saturday morning, Mohammed was roused from his slumber when about 25 heavily-armed tactical assault specialists from the Pakistani police force burst into his comfortable suburban hideaway. Also captured was Mustafa Ahmed al-Hawsawi, the paymaster for the September 11 attacks on America.
Thirty Five ‘Terror Groups’ Active In India
For full article: Islam-on-Line.
[Everyone knows the respect in which your Editor holds his government, but alas, the Minister making the statement cannot count. There are a great many more terror groups in India.]
An Indian minister speaking in Parliament here said there are 35 terrorist groups active on the Indian soil. These include outfits of all kinds, Maoist, communist, ethnic, regionalist as well as religion-based. The minister made the surprising claim that even Al-Qaeda is active in India. Last year India had claimed that Al-Qaeda is active in its part of Kashmir but it withdrew the claim quickly lest it gave the U.S. a handle to dabble there. This was published by the Asian Age newspaper based on minister of state for home in the BJP-led Indian federal government Hari Pathak's statement in the parliament.
We are hours behind Osama: ISI
Full story in the Jang of Pakistan
ISLAMABAD: The net is closing around terrorist mastermind Osama bin Laden, Pakistani intelligence officials said on Monday, confirming the No 3 al-Qaeda man captured one week ago met Osama in December. Information from Khalid Shaikh Muhammad, the suspected mastermind of the Sept 11 attacks, "is bringing us significantly closer to Osama", said one intelligence official who could not be identified according to the rules of a press conference by Pakistan's spy agency.
"We appear to be just hours behind him (bin Laden)," the official said, citing evidence gathered from Khalid and other suspected al-Qaeda operatives. "One suspect met with Osama in September, and Khalid Shaikh said he met with him in December. We were months behind, then weeks and now hours behind him."
The press conference was the first-ever held at the Inter-Services Intelligence, or ISI, headquarters in Islamabad, according Gen Rashid Qureshi, spokesman for Pakistan's president Pervez Musharraf. US forces pressing the search for bin Laden are operating in Afghanistan's southern Helmand province, Muhiddin Khan, a director at the provincial Governor's House, told The Associated Press.
Other operations are reportedly being carried out in Afghanistan's southern Nimroz and along the rugged mountainous border regions between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
US, Indian marines to hold joint exercises
Times of India by Rajat Pandit.
NEW DELHI: Top-notch Indian and American special forces will train their lethal MP-5 sub-machine guns and crossbows with cyanide-tipped arrows at each other soon. No, they won't kill each other. Instead, they will match their "unconventional" and "clandestine" warfare skills in a joint exercise to be held in India.
Defence sources say an exercise between US Navy SEALS and Indian Navy Marine Commando Force (Marcos) is now at an advanced stage of planning. "The Americans are keen it takes place on the west coast. So, Goa and Mangalore are being considered for the exercise, which is slated for October-November after the Iraq situation stabilises," said a source.
Incidentally, in an another first, India and US will hold a joint air combat exercise with frontline fighter jets around that time. Though Pakistan has objected to such manoeuvres, India and US are pressing ahead by increasing the scope and content of the joint exercises.
[Editor’s Note: this is not quite correct. In 1963-64, if your editor remembers rightly, the USAF and RAF stationed combat aircraft in India for an extensive series of exercises with the Indian Air Force in the wake of the China War. We welcome any letter or article that can recount some of the details.]
The SEALS, who take their name from the elements (sea-air-land), go through what is touted to be the toughest military training in the world. Specialising in counter-terrorism operations, hydrographic reconnaissance and underwater demolitions in both "blue and brown water environments", the SEALS have operated in different parts of the globe.
"The Marcos are no less. Only 15 to 25 per cent of the applicants pass the extremely rigorous training. They are proficient deep-sea divers and parachutists," said a senior officer.
Modelled on the SEALS, the Marine Commando Force was raised to fulfil India's need for an elite force for special maritime operations. It has seen action in Operation Pawan in Sri Lanka and Operation Cactus in Maldives in 1987-1988.
Then, of course, the Marcos continue to play an important role in the counter-insurgency operations in Jammu and Kashmir. They are tasked to check infiltration of terrorists from Pakistan through the Jhelum river and the Wullar lake.
"The Marcos and SEALS will learn each others' operating procedures, training techniques, weapons and equipment in the exercise. This will help them to work together in the future if the need arises," said an officer.
Return To
Top March 12, 2003
March 11, 2003
Last pieces in
place
British troops prepare for Iraq invasion
1st ID sets up new base near Iraqi border
The daring plan to seize Baghdad's airport
and end a war within days
Korea
Collaboration Par Excellence and Pakistan's
Strategic Dilemma March 10
Khalid newest inmate at infamous Bagram
prison March 10
Debka Says Turkey Agrees to US Troops,
Equipment Being Unloaded March 10
U.N. evacuates [civilian] personnel from
Iraq-Kuwait border March 9
UN catches Marines on 'neutral zone' foray
March 9
Russian Military Holds Beauty Contests
March 9
Baghdad Targets Picked If Hussein Holes Up
There February 8
Last pieces in place
From The
Washington Post By Rick Atkinson
KUWAIT CITY - The wind died, the skies faired and just before dawn Saturday
morning the weather-delayed USNS Dahl berthed with the last critical U.S. Army
weapons needed to attack Iraq.
By noon, the first of 72 helicopters belonging to the 101st Airborne Division
had been hoisted from the hold and moved to a dockside parking lot. Army
mechanics in white hard hats swarmed over the initial Apache attack helicopter,
stripping away shrink-wrap protective plastic and reattaching rotor blades that
were removed two weeks ago before the voyage from Jacksonville, Fla.
The helicopters will fly from the port to camps in the Kuwaiti outback over the
next two days, to be joined by 96 others from the USNS Bob Hope, which is
expected early Monday. With the majority of its helicopters ready to launch deep
strikes hundreds of miles into Iraqi territory, the 101st will be ready for war,
according to senior officers. The division is the final major component of a
U.S. ground attack force that includes the 3rd Infantry Division and the 1st
Marine Expeditionary Force, complemented by Special Forces, an enormous air
armada, British troops and other units. The 101st is the Army's only "air
assault" division, with a capacity to move a brigade of roughly 4,500 combat
soldiers 100 miles by helicopter in six hours - even as the Apaches strike
deeper yet.
"If we do what we think we're going to do, there will never have been a military
campaign that has moved that far, that fast," one senior Army officer said
Saturday.
The division's Apaches, equivalent to nearly half of the Army's attack
helicopters in Kuwait, are considered vital to any ground attack. The new
Longbow model has a fire-control radar system capable of detecting in less than
a second more than 1,000 potential targets spread over several miles, sorting
them into categories such as wheeled or tracked vehicles, and prioritizing them
instantly for purposes of destruction by the helicopter's 16 Hellfire missiles.
"If you don't do a 'human interrupt,' the Longbow will automatically kill those
targets in order of priority," said Brig. Gen. Edward Sinclair, an Apache pilot
and assistant division commander of the 101st. Target data can also be e-mailed
from one Longbow to another.
Saturday, however, the task at hand involved simply getting the division kit off
the Dahl, which had been delayed a day when high seas prevented Kuwaiti tugs
from escorting the 950-foot ship to berths 18 and 19. No sooner had the great
slab of the stern ramp been lowered than 1,859 tons of cargo began pouring from
the holds. Two huge yellow gantry cranes lifted ammunition crates onto the docks
- everything from Hellfires and rockets to rifle rounds - while Humvees and fuel
trucks, hospital generators and radio equipment rolled down the ramp in a sort
of military Noah's ark procession.
"We can do one aircraft about every 12 minutes, from the time we hook them up
(to a crane) to the time we lower them to the ground," said Lt. Col. Joe
Dunaway, commander of the division's aviation maintenance battalion. "If you're
living right, it all works."
[Orbat.com note: The USNS Bob Hope will dock on the 11th of March. The final
airlift of 101st troops should also be arriving in Camp Udairi in northern
Kuwait that day according to AP wires. One of the blessing of Kuwait’s
diminutive size is that the drive from the dock to forming up areas is
considerably shorter than those experienced by Coalition Forces in 1990.]
British troops prepare for Iraq invasion
Australian Broadcasting Corporation
Thousands of British troops sent to Kuwait are
making their final preparations for war.
The BBC reports there have been complaints from the troops about their
equipment, but senior officers insist they are ready to fight.
In the Kuwaiti desert the buildup of troops and military hardware is relentless
and many of the huge convoys snaking north carry the British flag, moving
towards units now in place along the Iraqi border.
The 7th armoured brigade, the desert rats, with some soldiers still grumbling
about equipment and provisions, are positioned at just 40 kilometres from Iraq.
But as their much needed supplies head to the northern deserts, UN personnel
being evacuated from the border area passed them heading south.
It is a part of a growing tension here. Special German military units are now on
the streets, monitoring for potential chemical attack in a country that is
readying itself for possible war.
1st ID sets up new base near Iraqi border
From
Stars & Stripes by Jon R Anderson
MARDIN, Turkey — A 1st Infantry Division-led logistics task force has pushed
deep into eastern Turkey to establish a new forward operating base just 100
miles from the Iraqi border.
On the outskirts of the ancient mountaintop city of Mardin, the new outpost is
near a small civilian airport and sits just off the main road leading to
Turkey’s frontier with Iraq.
The compound once served as a grain refinery and warehouse complex, according to
local residents.
Rain-soaked soldiers worked into the pre-dawn hours Friday, unloading dozens of
Humvees, trucks, fuel haulers and other hardware after a grueling 15-hour convoy
from southern Turkey’s port city of Iskenderun.
Officials say the new base will serve as a logistics hub for tens of thousands
of U.S. combat troops, if Turkish leaders approve an American invasion force.
“It’s a command and control node for the flow of site preparation equipment and
other potential forces,” said Navy Cmdr. Ike Skelton, spokesman for the U.S.
buildup in Turkey.
Among the units setting up the outpost are 1st ID’s 701st Main Support Battalion
— the division’s heavy lifter when it comes to trucks and fuel — as well as the
601st Support Battalion, a unit dedicated to supplying and maintaining the
division’s helicopter units.
Soldiers wearing the Army’s medical command patch and the Germany-based 21st
Theater Support Command patch could also be seen working around the compound.
Establishment of the new base comes amid continuing uncertainty over U.S. plans
to use Turkey as a springboard for an invasion into northern Iraq.
While Turkish lawmakers approved 3,500 U.S. troops to begin laying the
groundwork for that more than month ago, the parliament failed to pass a motion
last week to give the green light a 62,000-stong invasion force.
Urged on by the top general of the Turkish military on Wednesday, government
leaders have hinted they may push for another vote soon.
Key elections are slated for Sunday, which will likely see a new prime minister
installed, so it’s uncertain when that vote may happen. Some reports predict
days, other reports say weeks.
Troops have waited for more than two weeks to move out of staging areas, while
military gear has piled up along Iskenderun’s docks.
Instead of grinding to a halt, however, the cogs of site preparation have
quickened in recent days.
Within hours of the 1st ID convoy pushing east out of Iskenderun to set up the
new outpost, a fourth cargo ship brimming with more logistics gear began
unloading along the port’s freshly cleared marshalling areas.
[Orbat.com note: Despite the slightly misleading title it is the 4th Infantry
Division that will be the first maneuver formation to utilise these facilities.
The possibility of employing the 4ID from Turkey has more than any other
military planning factor continued to push D-Day forward.]
The daring plan to seize Baghdad's airport and
end a war within days
From
The Daily Telegraph By Sean Rayment
If successful, it will go down in history as one of the most audacious battle
plans ever devised and will end a war with Iraq in just 72 hours.
In a daring and risky attempt to defeat Iraq's vast army, Allied commanders are
planning to seize Saddam International Airport and use it as a base to bring the
regime to its knees.
Once the airport is in Allied hands, British and American forces will be able to
use it as a bridgehead from which to launch attacks into Baghdad. Supplies and
additional personnel can also be brought more easily into the area.
Building a large force early in the campaign adds to the momentum against
Saddam.
A senior military officer, said: "Airborne operations are very risky. The last
time British paras jumped into battle was during the Suez Crisis in 1956.
"It is a shock tactic which, if used correctly, can have a huge impact on the
shape of a battle. This is a bold operation that is not without risk, but with a
bit of luck and good intelligence, it should be successful."
Shock troops from America's 101st Airborne Division - known as the Screaming
Eagles - the United States 82nd Airborne Division and Britain's 16 Air Assault
Brigade have been earmarked for the task.
Once the airport, a few miles from the centre of Baghdad, has been seized, an
enormous US and British armoured force will charge towards the city to link up
with the airborne troops. The force will be composed of either the 3rd or 1st US
Infantry Division, whose armoured units are equipped with the virtually
unstoppable Abrams main battle tank, supported by the British 7th Armoured
Brigade, equipped with the Challenger 2 tank. The capture of the airport would
be part of a "blitzkrieg" attack that is being planned by Allied commanders once
the order to start the war is given. The assault on the airport is likely to
come very soon after the invasion of Iraq begins.
Hundreds of cruise missiles will target radar stations and command and control
centres.
Stealth bombers, followed by US and British ground attack aircraft from bases in
Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and from carriers in the Gulf will begin destroying air and
army bases and surface-to-air missile sites.
Simultaneously, the British 3 Commando Brigade and troops from the US Marine
Corps will seize the city of Basra, which is just 19 miles from the Kuwaiti
border. Those troops will also thwart any aggressive moves made by Iranian
troops on the other side of the Shatt Arab waterway, where the Iranian and Iraqi
borders meet.
In the ensuing confusion, the airborne assault on the airport will be launched.
The first phase will see military barracks, tanks and surface-to-air missile
sites in and around the airport destroyed by aerial bombardments.
Then, the assault on the airport itself will begin. Both the 101st Airborne
Division and 16 Air Assault Brigade specialise in seizing enemy airports and
would already have spent days, and possibly weeks, planning and preparing the
operation.
The British paras are likely to be the first to assault the airport along with
US paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division. The dropping zones will be
marked either by the SAS or the Pathfinders, the brigade's specialist
reconnaissance unit. To avoid confusion, British and American units will be
given different targets to attack. This will be the most vulnerable stage of the
operation.
A single Iraqi soldier armed with a hand-held surface-to-air missile could shoot
down a C130 Hercules aircraft or one of the troop-carrying helicopters.
The ground troops will, however, be supported by at least one of the three
Apache attack helicopter battalions which form part of the American division.
Once the airport is secured, which could take several hours depending on the
strength of Iraqi resistance, the next phase of the operation will commence.
Transport aircraft will reinforce the lightly equipped force with more troops,
armoured vehicles and artillery batteries. At the same time casualties will be
evacuated back to field hospitals inside Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
The orders for the troops occupying the airport will be simple: to hold their
ground until the armoured force arrives.
Even if they meet little resistance, the force will take at least 72 hours to
reach the advance troops at the airport. If, however, the Allied armoured
columns run into determined opposition from Iraqi armoured units, or if Saddam
uses his chemical and biological weapons, the arrival of the force could be
considerably delayed.
In either case, the Allies will still have a significant advantage: complete
control of the skies. This means that commanders will be able to call for air
strikes against any enemy armour or troop concentrations that are likely to pose
a threat either to the troops at the airfield, or to those attempting to relieve
them.
[Orbat.com note: We don’t need to explain all of the dangers inherent to the
armoured force’s lines of communications in the link up of the nature described,
given the ratio of forces, the distances and terrain involved and time
available. Iraq has been conventionally weakened, but it is not Panama.
Coalition military commanders and political authorities while committed to
speedy resolution are far from reckless with the lives of their men. While we
are probably to see airmobile operation records broken, it is unlikely that
CENTCOM is going to take all of the risks implied in this article.]
Korea
An article in Time Asia, reproduced in Globalsecurity.org, says the US military feels that counter-battery fire and other weapons can neutralize NKPA artillery north of the DMZ in an hour, and that civilian losses in Seoul will be far less than the million dead being bandied about.
We at orbat.com would like to know, then, who has been putting out the one million dead on the first day figures and why.
Globalsecurity.org reports that reinforcing US strategic bombers have arrived at Anderson AFB, Guam. One tank battalion of the 1st Infantry Division, based in the United States, is in South Korea for scheduled exercises. Most intriguing, apparently units of the California Guard’s 40th Infantry Division [Mechanized] are being mobilized for deployment to Korea. [As far as we can tell, elements of one armor battalion and one artillery battalion have been activated. This gets more and more intriguing, and we ask our readers to let us know if they pick up any details of what is going on with reference to Korea.
Return To
Top March 11, 2003
March 10, 2003
Collaboration
Par Excellence and Pakistan's Startegic Dilemma
Khalid newest inmate at infamous Bagram
prison
Debka Says Turkey Agrees to US Troops,
Equipment Being Unloaded
U.N. evacuates [civilian] personnel from
Iraq-Kuwait border March 9
UN catches Marines on 'neutral zone' foray
March 9
Russian Military Holds Beauty Contests
March 9
Baghdad Targets Picked If Hussein Holes Up
There February 8
Musharraf Facing Decision in the Security
Council Soon February 8
Osama’s Two Son’s Captured? Maybe, Maybe Not
February 8
China hikes defence budget by nearly 10 pc
February 8
Collaboration Par Excellence and Pakistan's Strategic Dilemma
Major A.H Amin regularly writes opinion columns for Analysis.
Although the Indo Pak Muslim Elite was notorious in collaborating with the British and after partition with the Americans,the Musharraf regime is dangerously close to jeopardizing Pakistan's sovereignty as an independent state in the course of appeasing the USA.
The Muslim elite became loyalist after 1857 and Sir Sayyad Ahmad Khan was the father of Loyalism. However the Sayyad was a deep man and his loyalism was based on a rationale. He was a selfless man and his aim was collective good rather than personal benefits.
The vast bulk of Muslim elite was however angling for personal gains and the trend became extreme after 1947.Mr Jinnah looked upon the USA as a safeguard against India. The post 1947 Pakistani elite feudal and commercial in outlook saw little hope except in aligning with USA. It was a question of class interest rather than religion.
The only leader of Pakistan who defied USA was Mr Z.A Bhutto who as a consequence was removed by a US inspired military coup.The usurper Zia was a US lackey but in his last phase of power tried to exhibit self respect and was consequently dispatched swiftly in a Lockheed machine to Hell or Paradise !
Benazir , in contrast with her father was a collaborator par excellence and appeased USA. The same was the case with Nawaz Sharif. Musharraf in his attempt to survive however pushed collaboration further. The after effects of 9/11 made his position unfortunate.
In the light of the above premise one may arrive at following conclusions :--
1-The KARGIL debacle of 1999 convinced the Indians that limited war in Kashmir was possible without approaching the Nuclear threshold. The Pakistani military and political leadership's loss of nerve in 1999 at the height of Kargil Crisis convinced the US that Pakistan's leadership both civilian and military could be arm-twisted into accepting any US sponsored solution.
2-Musharraf's collaboration with USA following one phone call from Bush convinced the USA that Pakistan was just another Banana Republic. It further proved to the USA that in future more phone calls can force Pakistan's leadership to agree to tougher demands like Kashmir issue, Nuclear Programme etc.
3-The handing over of Khalid the supposedly key Al Qaida adviser by Pakistan to USA is another strategic turning point in the whole affair. By handing over the man and nabbing him in the first place Musharaf has actually made Pakistan's future more precarious. The fact that a supposedly key Al Qaida man was in Pakistan's political and military heartland provides US with greater motives to settle the Pakistan question in the future. After all if they state that Pakistan is a safe haven for Terrorists they have a point, regardless of the fact that Pakistan handed over the man.
4-In the post Iraq scenario it appears that following scenarios may develop:--
a. USA forces Pakistan to abnadon its Nuclear
arsenal with a carrot about autonomy in Kashmir like the Dayton Bosnian Accord
or a Palestinian Authority type solution.
b. Mysterious removal of Pakistan's military elite in a classic elimination
operation in case the military elite resists demands of USA to surrender
Pakistan's Nuclear capability.
c. Limited Indian attack in Kashmir with US blessings in order to destroy
Pakistan military's capability.
The cardinal geopolitical developments in the region may be :--
a. A diminished Pakistan without a Nuclear
capability unable to support any low intensity adventures in KASHMIR etc.
b. A Somalia type Pakistan in case the Pakistani regime resists US threats to
surrender its Nuclear Arsenal.
c. A Pakistan led by collaborator Lotah type Muslim League (Q) politicians in a
post Musharraf Pakistan, with Pakistan like a Bhutan as compared to India and
with semi autonomous provinces.
The cycle of collaboration initiated by Pakistan's military and political leaders may reach its final logical phase in 2003-5. What began as limited collaboration would finally lead to the demise of a state created in the name of ideology.
The elite will enjoy in their castle like homes collaborating with the Americans and even Indians and the common man would be buggered as he was in 1947, 1971 and since time immemorial.
Pakistan's situation requires a resolute man. Collaboration shall not pay. Within an year or two Pakistan may be a Somalia or Bhutan in case this shameless collaboration goes on.
Pakistan needs a leader who has the courage to foresee, the resolution to do battle with the heavens if need be.
Khalid newest inmate at infamous Bagram prison
An article by Rahimullah Yusufzai in the Jang.
[Whenever your editor readers articles such as these, mentioning the inhumane treatment of POWs in American custody, he asks the question: perhaps the POWs would prefer to be prisoners in their own countries? Death by blunt force trauma would be a blessing. Further, would Mr. Yusufzai please tell us what happens to Pakistani prisoners, civil or military, when the authorities need to extract information quickly? Your editor is sure it is no different from India. Last, perhaps Mr. Yufuzai would like to visit some of the infamous American prisons like Angola? He will come away with a new perspective on the treatment meted to POWs in US custody.]
PESHAWAR: Khalid Sheikh Mohammad, allegedly a top al-Qaeda military planner, is the latest in a long list of suspected anti-US operatives to have been shifted to the secret, CIA-run prison at the Bagram airbase north of Kabul.
Former Taliban foreign minister Mulla Wakil Ahmad Mutawwakil is the most well known prisoner at Bagram. Abdul Salam Zaef, who served as the Taliban ambassador to Pakistan, was held at Bagram before being shifted to the US military base at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba. Omar al-Farooq, described by the US government and media as the al-Qaeda chief for Southeast Asia, is still being held at the infamous prison. Other prominent prisoners at Bagram include Afghan warlord Qari Roohullah, who as a member of the Loya Jirga voted for President Hamid Karzai last June, and his deputy Sabar Lal. Roohullah and Lal supported the US military campaign that ousted the Taliban from power and rose to positions of power in their native Kunar province. The Americans nabbed them following allegations that they helped al-Qaeda's Arab fighters to escape. Nationals of a number of countries have spent time in the detention centre in Bagram before being sent to the Guantanamo Bay or the British-owned Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia. Some were lucky to gain freedom but only a few gathered the courage to talk about their inhumane treatment at the CIA interrogation centre.
The majority of its inmates continue to be Arabs and Afghans. Each one of its inmates is accused of links with al-Qaeda or Taliban. None has been tried in any court todate. The US military authorities never disclose the number and identity of the Bagram prisoners. Colonel Roger King, the US military's chief spokesman at Bagram, recently said no more than 100 detainees were held at the prison at any time and only for short periods. The Bagram prison, protected by barbed wire, is made up of shipping containers. The small cells with bare floor offer little comfort in the bitter cold of the Shomali plains. The place is shrouded in mystery and has become controversial following an article in the Washington Post last December that alleged US agents and their allies extracted information from detainees through "stress and duress" techniques.
It prompted the New York-based Human Rights Watch to write a protest letter to the US government. Two Afghan prisoners, aged 28 and 35, died last December at the prison after suffering "blunt force injuries," apparently due to torture. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has been unable to gain access to all detainees at Bagram. But its representatives were able to meet some of the prisoners at the prison.
A Kabul-based ICRC information delegate Simon Schorno said recently that his organization worked confidentially with the US authorities. Through the ICRC, most prisoners are able to write and receive letters. Mutawwakil not only wrote letters to his Quetta-based family but was also allowed during the recent Eidul Azha to make a few phone calls. However, some of the Taliban who served as his staff as foreign minister told The News that he wasn't allowed to meet any other prisoner at Bagram.
"A few freed Afghan prisoners said they saw Mutawwakil while walking past their cells at Bagram," informed one of his former staffers. The US military authorities also ran a prison at the Kandahar airbase. Apparently, it still exists even though most of the accused are now kept at the Bagram detention centre.
The few men freed from the Kandahar and Bagram prisons have narrated how they were maltreated both by the American and Afghan captors. In particular, they accused the Afghan intelligence officials hired by the US of inflicting torture on prisoners to extract information. In comparison, the three Afghans and a Pakistani who were freed from the US detention centre in Guantanamo Bay didn't experience as much humiliation and torture as the prisoners who were held at Kandahar and Bagram.
Debka Says Turkey Agrees to US Troops, Equipment Being Unloaded
Turkey Is Both Feet Back in Northern Front
Since Wednesday night, March 5, according to DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military sources, US supplies management teams of the US 1st Cavalry Division have been posted at four Turkish sea harbors, taking delivery of the equipment of the US 4th Infantry Division discharged after a long wait at sea.
For weeks, twenty-six US cargo ships carrying the division’s tanks and heavy equipment have been sitting over the horizon off Turkish shores. Now, they are unloading their cargoes directly onto railcars heading out to the Turkish-Iraqi frontier. Tens of thousands of 4th division troops are still aboard the freighters, except for the units flown in by air. According to a US war command estimate, those troops will need three days to reach the Iraqi frontier from the moment the signal to land is flashed by the Ankara government. That signal may come soon in the light of a certain impending turnabout in...
Return To
Top March 10, 2003
March 9, 2003
U.N. evacuates
[civilian] personnel from Iraq-Kuwait border
UN catches Marines on 'neutral zone' foray
Russian Military Holds Beauty Contests
Baghdad Targets Picked If Hussein Holes Up
There February 8
Musharraf Facing Decision in the Security
Council Soon February 8
Osama’s Two Son’s Captured? Maybe, Maybe Not
February 8
China hikes defence budget by nearly 10 pc
February 8
Time may have finally run out for Iraq
February 8
U.N. evacuates [civilian] personnel from Iraq-Kuwait border
CNN report.
KUWAIT CITY, Kuwait (CNN) -- The U.N. observer force in the demilitarized zone between Iraq and Kuwait has ordered the evacuation of most of its civilian staff to Kuwait City in the latest indication of rising tensions along the 200-mile strip.
The personnel being withdrawn are part of an observer force that has maintained a 10-mile-wide demilitarized zone along the border since the end of the Persian Gulf War in 1991.
The U.N. Iraq-Kuwait Observer Mission [UNIKOM] has also ratcheted up its alert status to "red." The nearly 200 observers and their 775 Bangladeshi military support units will remain. The upgrade to red alert, however, means the groups will be confined to their bases and stop conducting routine patrols of the DMZ.
UNIKOM sources confirm that some of the 230 civilian U.N. staff have already left their residential quarters in the demilitarized zone, with more scheduled to leave Sunday. However, some civilians will remain.
The move comes the day after the United Nations said Kuwaiti workers have cut holes in the border fence between Iraq and Kuwait big enough to drive military vehicles through. The workers apparently cut areas marked by U.S. Marines who have been working inside the demilitarized zone for days, according to the United Nations, in likely breach of the regulations covering the border area.
UN catches Marines on 'neutral zone' foray
Forwarded by Gordon A. MacKinlay, an article written by Daniel McGrory in Kuwait City.
[Note from the editor. The tone of this article is quite odd. US and Kuwaiti troops are cutting the wire to prepare for the invasion of Iraq. Why the US would be embarrassed at being “caught”, and why US commanders are blaming their men for following their orders is unclear. It’s also odd why US Marines are claiming to be Indian and Nepali workers.
THE United Nations accused US Marines yesterday of “the most flagrant and dangerous border incident in the past decade” after they attempted to force their way across the Kuwaiti border into Iraq. The Marines were caught by a UN patrol in what is supposed to be a demilitarised zone using bolt-cutters to make holes in the electrified fence that separates Kuwait from Iraq. US commanders in Kuwait were outraged when they were informed and have demanded a full investigation into the so-called “bolt hole” incident.
A senior military source in Kuwait said that the incursion had not been sanctioned by US Land Force commanders and described the attempt to cross the border as “unbelievably stupid and provocative”.
UN officers on patrol along the border late on Tuesday afternoon came across 12 men, dressed in casual clothes, cutting a 27-yard gap in a barbed wire fence. The men were said to have claimed that they were civilian contractors working for the Kuwaiti Government, but they had no escorts, no paperwork and no identity documents.
One was said to have claimed that the group had taken a wrong turning, although since there is only one road heading north and the border area is clearly marked with checkpoints and watch-towers, that was hardly plausible. According to an internal document of Unikom, the
UN observer force in Kuwait, the men said that they had been hired to cut 35 gaps by March 15. “The workers identified themselves to Unikom as Indian and Nepalese nationals,” the document says. “A commercial contractor from South Africa interviewed by Unikom investigators at the site of one of the gaps claimed that he was working under a contract issued by the Kuwaiti Ministry of Interior and the contract was to create 35 gaps in the electric fence before 15 March 2003.”
Further checks showed that the men had already cut seven large gaps in the 135-mile fence wide enough for a tank. They had also tampered with the electrified fence.
Daljeet Bagga, a UN spokesman at the zone, said yesterday: “This was not the only incursion by the Americans. Last month we found US Marines patrolling in a Humvee, dressed in their full battle uniforms and carrying M16 rifles.
“All of this is in complete contravention of the UN regulations. We registered our complaint with New York, who are still waiting for an explanation for that incident, and now we have men with bolt-cutters making holes in the fence.
“The Iraqis could well have retaliated if these men had forced their way across into their territory. We have also found the Americans putting communications equipment in the zone.” The zone is a nine-mile strip of land split by the electrified fence running down the barbed-wire divides. Only UN officials are permitted to go into the zone, which stretches for six miles into Iraq and three miles into Kuwait.
The incursion was being seen as a signal that the American military is preparing to move its armoured columns through the dividing fence. UN officials say that they also have evidence that the men were planning to cut similar gaps in the fence further south along the border.
The men were apparently trying to create more “gateways” into Iraq to avoid the need for army bulldozers to tear down the entire fence, which was completed in 1996.
What will embarrass the Americans is that UN officials in Kuwait report that Iraq is behaving “impeccably” in respecting the zone.
Return To
Top March 9, 2003
Russian Military Holds Beauty Contests
Forwarded by Gordon A. MacKinlay, extracts from an article by Clem Cecil writing in the London Times. [Note from the editor. Indians may be forgiven for sometimes believing their nation must be just about the most bizarre on earth. Articles like the one below are reassuring in that even an Indian can say “we may be strange, but we are definitely not as strange as that…”]
Wearing full make-up and dressed to kill, two soldiers in the Russian Army demonstrate their shooting skills in what must be the world’s most unusual beauty pageant. The glamorous pair are among 16 women who have been picked from battalions all over Russia and brought to Moscow to take part in Beauty in Epaulettes 2003.
During the competition, which began on Thursday, the troops will be judged on their target skills and cooking abilities as well as ballroom dancing and, of course, their looks.
One contestant, Irina Savitskaya, 23, has become a military pin-up overnight after her picture was splashed on the cover of the Izvestia newspaper. She hopes that by taking part she will help to raise the profile of women in Spetsnaz, Russia’s equivalent of the SAS and the division in which she serves. “When I first joined Spetsnaz the men laughed at me. As soon as they found out what I was capable of, they gave me some respect,” she said.
The contest, which is timed to coincide with International Women’s Day today, is redolent of the combination of reverence and condescension towards women to be found in every sphere of Russian life. Indeed, as the shooting competition got underway, male officers smiled patronisingly as the women scrambled over tanks wielding Makarov pistols to fire at a target from 25 metres while taking care not to smudge heavy eye make-up.
At the climax of the competition, the contestants were to sashay on to the stage of the Theatre of the Soviet Army in central Moscow in full regalia: high heels, diminutive skirts and huge hairdos. The eventual winner was be declared Miss Epaulettes 2003.
Eight per cent of the Russian Army is female, a figure topped only in the United States and Israel, but most of the women are nurses or administrators. Of the 1.1 million-strong army, it is claimed that 100,000 are women and more than 3,500 of those are officers, including more than 150 colonels and 800 majors.
Return To
Top March 9, 2003
March 8, 2003
Baghdad
Targets Picked If Hussein Holes Up There
Musharraf Facing Decision in the Security
Council Soon
Osama’s Two Son’s Captured? Maybe, Maybe Not
China hikes defence budget by nearly 10 pc
Time may have finally run out for Iraq
Terrorists May Grab Pakistan Nukes: US Expert
March 7
Fire On Russian Submarine March 7
As UN Split Hardens, War Nears March 7
Snippets February 6
Khalid Shaikh Mohammed’s Capture in
Perspective March 5
Editorial: North Korea - Stating the Obvious
and Asking Some Questions March 5
Khalid Sheikh Mohammed - terrorist mastermind
or playboy has-been? March 5
US May Deploy Superbomb February 28
Baghdad Targets Picked If Hussein Holes Up There
Extracts from an article by MICHAEL R. GORDON writing in the New York Times
CAMP VIRGINIA, Kuwait, March 6 — If in the event of war Saddam Hussein decides to make a final stand in Baghdad, the American military plans to send troops into the heart of the city in a coordinated ground and air campaign against centers of government power, the commander of the Army's forces in Kuwait said. The aim is to avoid bloody house-to-house fighting that could claim large numbers of American and civilian lives, he said. The plan would also avoid a prolonged siege, which could leave the Iraqi leader in control of his capital and in a position to exploit world concern about the fate of his citizens.
In an interview at his desert headquarters in northwest Kuwait, Lt. Gen. William S. Wallace outlined a deliberate strategy that calls for patient reconnaissance, focused airstrikes by Air Force planes and Army attack helicopters and penetrations into the heart of Baghdad by armored formations, light infantry and combat engineers.
"I am talking about attacking those things from which the regime draws its power but being very careful about it so that we don't get large bodies of young Americans caught up in a house-to-house Berlin, World War II-type scenario," he said.
As commander of V Corps, General Wallace is in charge of the Army force that is poised to invade Iraq. His comments represented the most extensive account by the American military of how it plans, if there is war, to take Baghdad. The remarks appeared intended to signal to Mr. Hussein that the American military would not shrink from urban warfare while reassuring Americans and the world that efforts would be made to keep casualties to a minimum.
The American military is hoping that the Iraqi government rapidly collapses under a punishing air attack and the psychological pressure of advancing American forces, relieving G.I.'s of the need to fight in Baghdad. But Army officials are not counting on that happening. They say that Mr. Hussein's strategy is to use regular Iraqi troops in southern Iraq to delay the American advance and inflict casualties while keeping divisions of the Republican Guard, Mr. Hussein's elite forces, near Baghdad for the major battle.
The Iraqis have established two defensive rings around Baghdad, according to American intelligence. The outer ring is intended to defend against American attackers and the inner ring will help maintain internal security, intelligence officials say. The first step in any battle of Baghdad would be locating the remaining centers of power, General Wallace said. "If you look at Baghdad itself, there's presidential palaces and the seats of government within the city which seem to be the places from which he controls the country. Whether that will be the case when we get there, we'll just have to see. Knowing exactly where he is pulling the strings from and how he is pulling those strings will be very important."
Musharraf Facing Decision in the Security Council Soon
Extracts from an article forwarded by Ram Narayanan; Erik Eckholm writing in the New York Times
During the next week the government of President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan may face an unwelcome moment of truth on the United Nations Security Council. Should Pakistan, a rotating member of the Council, support a resolution, unpopular at home, that would back an American-led attack on fellow Muslims in Iraq? Or should it risk the wrath of the United States, General Musharraf's vital but possibly fickle ally?
In a country tattered by religious and political conflict, the choice is excruciating, with possible effects on Pakistan's social stability, its paramount foreign policy goals in Kashmir and its broader strategic position — not to mention General Musharraf's own standing.
Most Pakistanis have little love for Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi leader, who has never offered strong support against India over the disputed territory of Kashmir — an emotional core issue in Pakistan's foreign policy. But most people are also deeply suspicious of American goals in the Middle East and strongly oppose an attack on Iraq. General Musharraf faces agitation from emboldened, hard-line Islamic groups.
Washington's aggressive policy on Iraq has become a rallying cry among the conservative Islamic parties that speak for a vociferous minority of Pakistanis. The religious parties are organizing large street demonstrations. More than 200,000, by some estimates, turned out last Sunday in Karachi, and another rally is scheduled in Rawalpindi this weekend. The mullahs have accused General Musharraf of selling out to what they call the evil, anti-Muslim American empire. But General Musharraf's sense of Pakistan's strategic and economic needs argues against the popular sensibility, diplomats and political experts say, just as it did after Sept. 11, when, to avert catastrophe, he severed ties with the Taliban and joined the war against terrorism.
Osama’s Two Son’s Captured? Maybe, Maybe Not
Interior minister denies bin Laden's sons captured
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan's Interior Minister Faisal Saleh Hayat Friday denied reports cited by a provincial minister that two sons of Osama bin Laden had been arrested in a joint operation by Pakistani, Afghan and US forces in southeast Afghanistan near the Pakistani and Iranian borders. Two sons of Osama, others arrested in Afghanistan operation
KARACHI: Two sons of Osma bin Laden and some other people were arrested Friday in an operation in Afghanistan near Pakistan border, a Balochistan minister told Geo TV on Friday. He said that the sons of Osama have been arrested in an injured condition and added there were more causalities there. He said that the arrests were made during operation for the arrest of Osama bin Laden.
China hikes defence budget by nearly 10 pc
From the Times of India
BEIJING: China on Thursday hiked its defence budget for 2003 by 9.6 per cent, the 14th increase in as many years, to modernise the 2.5-million-strong military with high-tech weaponry to deter Taiwan from seceding and safeguard national sovereignty.
"Expenditures for national defence in the central budget for 2003 amount to 185.3 billion yuan ($22.43 billion), an increase of 9.6 per cent," China's Finance Minister Xiang Huaicheng said, presenting China's national budget for the current year on the second day of the National People's Congress (NPC), China's parliament.
Defending the near-double digit hike, Xiang said China's military has to adapt to "changes in the international situation, safeguarding national security and sovereignty and territorial integrity and raising the combat effectiveness of the armed forces in fighting wars to defend the country with the use of high-technology."
The 9.6 per cent hike is more than the around seven per cent GDP growth the outgoing Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji has set for this year.
Commenting on the 9.6 per cent hike, defence analysts here said that it was more or less on expected lines since the world's largest standing army, the People's Liberation Army (PLA), was in the process of modernising with the induction of more high-tech weaponry from countries like Russia and Israel.
At the same time, he pointed out that the real budget for the military could be between three and four times the published figure.
Unpublished budget items include certain research and development programmes and some special weapons purchases, a western diplomat said, adding that China's ambitious manned space programme could also be part of the military spending.
Analysts say that the PLA is worried over continued US supply of arms to Taiwan, which China views as a rebel province that must be reunified with the mainland, even by force.
Time may have finally run out for Iraq
By Richard M. Bennett.
The air war may well begin within days and a full scale ground invasion by the middle of March. That would appear to be the most likely scenario according to many observers following the press conference given by President Bush on Thursday evening and the likelihood that the latest statement by Hans Blix on Friday will be another fudge, offering some encouragement for both those intent on war and those who argue that the UN inspections should be given more time. It would hardly be surprising if The Whitehouse was to confirm that the one thing they really dreaded was that Saddam Hussein would finally decide on full co-operation and seriously disarm, that indeed would not have fitted in with US planning at all. However the Iraqi dictator has once again played into American hands as many of the Bush administrations analysts confidently predicted.
The one somewhat unexpected problem arose with the significant opposition to US policy on Iraq by a triumvirate of 'old' European states; France, Germany and Russia. This has cast something of a gloom over US and British actions and soured relationships with long standing allies to a degree that will undoubtedly effect the long term chances of survival of both NATO and the broader Atlantic alliance. It also and perhaps even more importantly means the possible sidelining of the United Nations as Britain and America go to war unilaterally and without the legitimization of genuine and widespread international support The United States, long seen as a key supporter and controlling influence on the United Nations risks become isolated and indeed seen, rightly or wrongly, as an aggressive, neo-imperialistic nation intent of gaining control of the worlds most important natural resources and utterly intolerant of opposition.
Of particular concern is the obvious inability, at least so far, of the Bush administration to sell US policy on the need for a veritable orgy of regime changes in Iraq, Syria, Iran, Libya and very probably North Korea and Venezuela as well. Nor has a convincing case been made for the belief that the military campaigns will be surgical in their swiftness and with the sureness of a quick disengagement afterwards.
History has taught us that military planning usually starts to come unstuck with the first arrow, bullet or cruise missile fired in anger and that the aftermath of victory rarely allows for a clean escape from becoming the long term occupying power. If the Bush administration sincerely believes in an sharp 'in and out' conflict with any of the target nations then it is probably in for a very rude awakening. For with the ultimate power to change regimes comes the ultimate responsibility for the consequences. The United States will almost certainly find itself trapped in a state of endless low-level conflicts, interspersed with violent revolts and small wars and with the ever present threat of terrorism for a minimum of twenty five years and very probably most of the rest of the 21st Century.
The US risks becoming a new colonial superpower
This is a prospect that would undoubtedly appall the majority of ordinary Americans, even though it presents a bright future of opportunity to the construction and arms industries and of course endless promotion for an ambitious military deprived of the fifty years of cold war confrontation with the Soviet Union. Present US policy is unlikely to achieve anything more than regime change and short term economic advantage, while the unpalatable price the American and to a lesser extent the British people will be probably forced to pay will be to become the leading members of a new Colonial alliance with hundreds of thousands of its servicemen and women constantly deployed in dangerous operations around the world. Worse still they may not have the approval of the United Nations and perhaps anything other than the open hostility of once staunch allies.
What can be virtually guaranteed however is the outright hatred of many of the conquered or threatened nations and the bitter determination of the Islamic terrorist groups in particular, to kill and maim American and British tourists, businessmen and women, sports stars, celebrities and leading politicians as well as military personnel, anywhere in the world.
The United States has gained the right to remove regimes it dislikes because it alone has the power to do so. However the military sabre can cut both ways and the ability to quickly invade and overthrow the Government of a foreign country does not necessarily guarantee an effective exit strategy. The short term economic and defence gains that the United States will probably make, and the political benefits that the Bush administration undoubtedly anticipate appear to be as far as The Whitehouse has seriously taken its planning unless you take the conspiratorial view that this is all part of the imposition of a New World Order.
The suspicion is that the overall geo-strategic perception of the 'Hawks' in the Government, Congress and the Pentagon is extremely limited and in the aftermath of 9-11, events that so traumatized America, but neatly dovetailed with existing plans for the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, US policy has been steamrollered down a path that has already lead to serious divisions with and among former allies, and now risks plunging the world back into the fractured, ethnic and religious warfare of the 12th and 13th centuries. Sadly it would appear that short terms political gains for the Bush administration may only bring long term pain for the American people as a whole.
Return To
Top March 8, 2003
March 7, 2003
Terrorists May
Grab Pakistan Nukes: US Expert
Fire On Russian Submarine
As UN Split Hardens, War Nears
World Abuzz With Possible Osama Capture
Thousands of 1st Armd Div troops get orders
to join in Gulf buildup February 6
US Guard and Reserve Mobilized As Of March 5,
2003 February 6
Turkish general backs US February 6
February 6
Snippets February 6
Khalid Shaikh Mohammed’s Capture in
Perspective March 5
Editorial: North Korea - Stating the Obvious
and Asking Some Questions March 5
Khalid Sheikh Mohammed - terrorist mastermind
or playboy has-been? March 5
US May Deploy Superbomb February 28
Terrorists May Grab Pakistani Nukes: US Expert
Forwarded by Ram Nayarayan, from the Economic Times [A Times of India newspaper].
NEW DELHI: Pakistan has been moving its nuclear arsenal frequently in recent times. It could lead to a danger of these weapons falling into the hands of terrorists, a leading US nuclear expert said today.
Ever since the September 11 terror attacks in US, Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf has been moving his nuclear weapons frequently for fear of US or Indian strikes, visiting US expert Scot D Sagan said.
He said such frequent movements of nuclear weapons, particularly in a country like Pakistan, where Al Qaeda supporters were still inside and outside the Pakistan army made these warheads more vulnerable to terrorists snatch.
Advocating that India and Pakistan should move away from nuclear brinkmanship, he and another leading US nuclear expert Ashley Tellis termed New Delhi's pronouncement of use of nuclear option in case of being attacked by chemical and biological weapons as a "significant switch" from the no first use doctrine.
Saying that the pronouncement almost amounted to first use policy under certain conditions, Mr Sagan said the real threat to India's security would be if these weapons fell into the hands of terrorists.
Claiming the pronouncements made early this year would now make Indian and US nuclear doctrine almost aligned, the experts speaking at a seminar on ‘Nuclear Weapons in South Asia' as part of an ongoing wider Indo-US dialogue on nuclear and missile technology said such shifts in nuclear policy would strengthen India's nuclear commitment.
Fire damages Russian nuclear submarine
MOSCOW: A fire broke out at a ship repair facility in northwestern Russia on Wednesday, damaging a nuclear submarine that was standing in a dock, the ITAR-Tass news agency reported. There was no radiation leak, the report said.
The fire broke out at a Northern Fleet facility in Roslyakovo, near the Arctic port of Murmansk, ITAR-Tass reported, citing fleet officials. It spread to scaffolding and singed part of a rubber covering on the nuclear submarine Pskov, the report said. It took several fire crews 90 minutes to extinguish the blaze, ITAR-Tass reported. Navy and Northern Fleet officials could not be reached for comment.
Roslyakovo is where the wreck of the nuclear submarine Kursk was towed in October 2001, a year after it was destroyed by explosions, killing all 188 seamen aboard. The damaged hull spent months in Roslyakovo before being towed to another facility last April for dismantling.
As UN split hardens, war nears
For full story by Brad Knickerbocker, read the Christian Science Monitor
With France, Russia, and Germany balking at any resolution on war, an invasion may be only days away.
WASHINGTON - The window on war with Iraq is suddenly narrowing as diplomatic options fade and the United States settles its full force of troops into place.
The decision by France, Russia, and Germany Wednesday to oppose any UN resolution that would authorize the use of force has sharply diminished the political solutions that remain in the standoff over Iraq.
As a result, experts - to the extent there are experts on such issues - now think a war could begin in a matter of days, probably no longer than two weeks. "US military action in Iraq is imminent...," says Loren Thompson of the Lexington Institute, a public-policy think tank in Arlington, Va.
Some analysts, such as John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org in Alexandria, Va., predicts the war will begin "after March 7 but possibly before March 14."
World buzzing with Osama catch
For full story, read the Jang
Nine al-Qaeda men held near Afghan border; officials claim Osama or his son among arrested
QUETTA: A major operation was reported to have been conducted in Noshki near Chaghai in Balochistan on Thursday to apprehend the top al-Qaeda terrorists hiding there. According to Online News Agency nine al-Qaeda suspects were reported to have been arrested in the raid. But there was no confirmation of this from any source.
Return To
Top March 7, 2003
March 6, 2003
Thousands of
1st Armd Div troops get orders to join in Gulf buildup
US Guard and Reserve Mobilized As Of March 5,
2003
Turkish general backs US
US General foresees war unlike that of 1991
Snippets
Khalid Shaikh Mohammed’s Capture in
Perspective March 5
Editorial: North Korea - Stating the Obvious
and Asking Some Questions March 5
Khalid Sheikh Mohammed - terrorist mastermind
or playboy has-been? March 5
North Korea steps up confrontation - in
anticipation of a US air strike? March 5
Britain’s Sun Says: War In 10 Days March
4
US May Deploy Superbomb February 28
Thousands of 1st Armored Div. troops get
orders to join in Gulf buildup
From
European Stars & Stripes
About 13,000 1st Armored Division soldiers received word Tuesday that they were
joining the growing number of U.S. troops based in the Persian Gulf.
The orders were among those issued over the weekend for 60,000 more U.S.
soldiers to prepare for hostilities with Iraq.
With more than 200,000 troops already deployed to the Persian Gulf, the Army’s
only armor division was among the last of the major combat commands to prepare
for pending hostilities in the U.S. Army Central Command’s area of
responsibility.
However, members of the division, headquartered in Wiesbaden, Germany, continued
to train while awaiting the call, a unit leader said.
“We’re more ready than we’ve ever been in the past two years — extremely ready,”
said Col. Michael Tucker, commander of the division’s Friedberg-based 1st
Brigade.
For the past two months, Tucker’s “Ready First” brigade conducted both gunnery
and maneuver training at the Army training center at Grafenwöhr. The exercise
culminated in a live-fire exercise that combined the brigade’s tanks and
infantry with artillery and engineers. They trained to standard doctrine for a
brigade combat team, with a task force twist — armor and infantry companies
combined…
…This week, soldiers are cleaning and repairing their equipment from the field
while brigade staff continues to train for the deployment, Tucker said. The
brigade is awaiting further guidance on when to move out, he said.
The division’s 2nd Brigade troops at Baumholder are also confident, said Col.
John D. Johnson, the brigade commander.
“We could not be better prepared right now. We’ve been doing some of the best
training I’ve ever seen,” he said.
Johnson attributed the sharpness to increased focus by soldiers to the
possibility of war. “We’d be kidding ourselves if we didn’t say that soldiers
have more sense of purpose when they can see their mission,” he said.
He said the brigade faced a major organizational puzzle ahead, with the need to
“take all this equipment and 3,500 soldiers plus, pick it all up and put it
someplace else,” Johnson said.
But he said his unit has one advantage over others: all the 2nd Brigade pieces
can train together regularly thanks to Baumholder’s maneuver and live-fire
training areas.
The 4th Brigade’s attack helicopters, under the command of Col. David Lawrence,
are based in Hanau, Germany.
Last week, soldiers from the division’s 3rd Brigade, based in Fort Riley, Kan.,
received deployment orders.
[Orbat.com note: Breakdown of the latest deployment order for our reader’s
reference; 26,000 troops from the 1st Armored Division, 24,000 troops from the
1st Cavalry Division and 10,000 from the 2nd Armored Cavalry Regiment.]
US Guard and Reserve Mobilized As Of March 5, 2003
US
Dept. of Defence
This week the Army, Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps each announce an increase
of reservists on active duty in support of the partial mobilization. The net
collective result is 8,470 more reservists than last week.
The total number of reserve personnel currently on active duty in support of the
partial mobilization for the Army National Guard and Army Reserve is 127,487;
Naval Reserve, 8,004; Air National Guard and Air Force Reserve, 23,109; Marine
Corps Reserve, 15,022; and the Coast Guard Reserve, 2,931. This brings the total
Reserve and National Guard on active duty to 176,553 including both units and
individual augmentees.
At any given time, services may mobilize some units and individuals while
demobilizing others, making it possible for these figures to either increase or
decrease.
A cumulative roster of all National Guard and Reserve who are currently on
active duty can be found at
http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Mar2003/d20030305ngr.pdf.
Turkish general backs US
From
Times of
London
TURKEY’S powerful military intervened yesterday to break the deadlock over
Washington’s request to open a northern front on Iraq through Turkish soil,
lending its support to a possible new parliamentary vote allowing US troop
deployment.
It remains to be seen, however, whether a rare public statement by General Hilmi
Ozkok, the Chief of General Staff, which also included a veiled warning against
Iraqi Kurdish independence, is too late for an impatient US keen to begin an
assault on President Saddam Hussein.
“The Turkish Armed Forces’ view is the same as the Government’s and is reflected
in the motion our Government sent to parliament. With a northern front, the war
will be short. The pain will be less,” General Ozkok said.
“If we don’t take part, we will suffer the same damage, but it won’t be possible
to get compensation for the losses we suffer . . . or for us to have a say
afterwards.”
The military’s views could sway MPs. General Ozkok’s statement was welcomed by
Abdullah Gul, the Prime Minister, whose Government failed by three votes on
Saturday to secure parliamentary approval for a deployment of up to 62,000 US
troops.
The military had failed to give explicit backing before that vote and General
Ozkok’s statement strengthens the likelihood of the Government introducing and
passing a new motion on Sunday.
The general also told Iraqi Kurds that Turkey would intervene to stop any
breakaway.
General foresees war unlike that of 1991
From
New York
Times via International Herald Tribune
Washington - The U.S. war plan for Iraq entails shocking the Iraqi leadership
into submission quickly with an attack "much, much, much different" from the
43-day Gulf War in 1991, according to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
The chairman, General Richard Myers, declined to give details, but other
military officials have said the plan calls for unleashing 3,000
precision-guided bombs and missiles in the first 48 hours of a short air
campaign, to be followed quickly by ground operations.
Myers warned that the U.S. attack would result in Iraqi civilian casualties
despite the military's best efforts to prevent them.
"If asked to go into conflict in Iraq, what you'd like to do is have it be a
short conflict," Myers said Tuesday. "The best way to do that would be to have
such a shock on the system that the Iraqi regime would have to assume early on
the end was inevitable."
Myers also said that disarming Iraq, not capturing or killing President Saddam
Hussein, would define victory.
The general said U.S. forces would open a second front from the north against
Iraq, with or without Turkey's help.
"It'll be tougher without Turkey, but nevertheless it'll happen," he said.
In addition to the heavy use of precision-guided bombs and missiles, the war
planning includes missions by allied special operations forces in and around
Baghdad, attacking leadership, command and control and storage sites for weapons
of mass destruction.
"If your template is Desert Storm, you have to imagine something much, much,
much different," Myers said, warning journalists who planned to cover any war
from Baghdad. "I would just be very, very careful about how you do your
business."
In 1991, allied aircraft conducted a 39-day bombing campaign before ground
troops moved into Kuwait. Rather than a sequential attack, commanders this time
plan a nearly simultaneous attack by land, air and sea.
With 200,000 American military troops in the Gulf and 60,000 more on their way,
Myers declined to give a timetable for war other than to say that the military
was ready to attack on President George W. Bush's order.
But many diplomatic and military issues remained unresolved.
With the northern-front question unsettled and one leading alternative -
deploying the 101st Airborne Division from Kuwait - still one to two weeks from
being in place, some military officials said any attack could be delayed until
late March.
That could fit with emerging diplomatic and military timetables. A vote late
next week in the Security Council would roughly coincide with the arrival in
Kuwait of many of the 101st Airborne's helicopters.
Other units in Kuwait could deploy north faster, if needed.
[Orbat.com note: One other difference; the number of US military personnel,
especially combat troops in this war will be significantly less than the number
committed to Desert Storm, particularly if the total 1991 Allied coalition is
counted.]
Return To
Top March 6, 2003
Snippets
The London Sun the snitch in the Khalid Sheikh Mohammad case is the son of Abdul Rachman Ahmed, now serving a life sentence in the US for the first WTC bombing. He will get $25 million and plans to settle in the UK. The Sun.
The US the dispatch of 24 B-52 and B-1 bombers to Guam was decided on before the interception of a US surveillance aircraft. The US routinely reinforces trouble spots before conduction major operations, so we may assume this is correct. The Washington Post reports today that the US is resigned to a nuclear North Korea. We may be wrong, but this looks like the US putting some not-so-subtle pressure on Moscow, Beijing, Seoul, and Tokyo to get on the US side on this issue. Meanwhile, the US is said to be of two minds regarding provision of fighter escorts to surveillance aircraft. The US position is these are routine, non-threatening activities carried out far from a country’s borders; fighter escorts would undermine this position.
An interview with the commandant of the Indian National Defense Academy, an officer training school, raises issues concerning the deteriorating standards of physical fitness of youngsters accepted to this elite institution and obliquely addresses the growing inability of the Indian armed forces to attract officer candidates of the quality needed. Rediff.com.
Israel is preparing to retaliate for the latest bombing: 50 tanks are reported moving toward a refugee camp Gaza which has already been attacked by missile firing helicopter gunships. Haaretz.com. The Palestinian attack is the first in two months, during which period, according to ABC-TV, 150 Palestinians have been killed, including civilians.
Return To
Top March 6, 2003
March 5, 2003
Khalid Shaikh Mohammed’s Capture in
Perspective
Editorial: North Korea - Stating the Obvious
and Asking Some Questions
Khalid Sheikh Mohammed - terrorist mastermind
or playboy has-been?
North Korea steps up confrontation - in
anticipation of a US air strike?
Britain’s Sun Says: War In 10 Days March
4
Libya to Recall Ambassador in Row With Saudi
March 4
Mid East-Gulf Region Braces for War and
Terror March 4
Opinion: Turkey and the US
Sadly, Al Qa'ida will survive the arrest of
9-11 plannerMarch 3
Iraq policy not to remodel Mideast, says
Powell March 3
157 tonnes of anthrax, VX nerve gas found:
Iraq March 3
Khalid Sheikh Arrested in Rawalpindi
March 2
Iraq: US Buildup February 28
US May Deploy Superbomb February 28
Khalid Shaikh Mohammed’s Capture in Perspective
Johann Price, Editor, Analysis at Orbat.com
There is absolutely nothing trivial about the capture of Khalid Shaikh Mohammed (who will be referred to as KSM for the sake of convenience in the rest of this article) in Rawalpindi day before yesterday. It is the culmination of six months of painstaking monitoring and many close misses by US federal agencies in conjunction with Pakistani authorities. Some typically overenthusiastic news reports have described KSM as al-Qaeda’s ‘number three man’ while others habitually given to interpretations that diminish or denigrate the achievements of the Coalition have already begun a revisionist campaign to brand KSM as ‘over the hill’ or a sacrificial pawn by the ISI or al-Qaeda to keep American pressure in check.
In order to make sense of these claims we must understand (a) the goals of the Bush Administration in the war on terror and (b) KSM’s history and role in al-Qaeda<
The Bush administration for it’s part has done a
very poor job of articulating its priorities and the thinking behind them in the
seventeen months since the terrorist atrocities of 11 September. From all the
accounts this author has encountered he must conclude that this has been because
the Administration itself struggled mightily to place the attacks and their
implications in context, even as it has consistently remained unwilling to allow
such difficulties to become an excuse for a weak or non-existent response.
Some of the initial statements including the infamous ‘dead or alive’
declaration made by President George W. Bush, have continued to shaped our
understanding of American strategy long after US Government thinking has evolved
past it. Part of the problem has been that most of us have so enjoyed
caricaturizing Bush that it has generally been unable to see beyond the purely
superficial. Careful examination suggests that while he is far more impetuous in
his statements than in the formation and execution of policy. The other half of
course is the character of the Bush team. Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld etc are all
highly opinionated individuals who see domestic and international disagreement
as inevitable obstacles that can best be negotiated by forcing acceptance in the
aftermath rather than permission beforehand.
On an intellectual and emotional level Rumsfeld (and through him Bush and the
cabinet) has been greatly affected by Roberta Wohlsetter’s masterful analysis of
the intelligence and policy failures that led to surprise at Pearl Harbor.
Thomas Schelling’s quote from the introduction to his book Pearl Harbor:
Warning and Decision sums it up:
“There is a tendency in our planning to confuse the unfamiliar with the
improbable…The danger is in a poverty of expectations, a routine obsession with
a few dangers that may be familiar rather than likely”
The Bush administration has consistently refused to formally accept any such judgment, but many key figures have in their own ways admitted that it was exactly such a failure that allowed 9-11 to happen, and the knowledge must weigh heavily on them.
The most important determination after 9-11 starting with President Bush was not to catch Osama bin Laden dead or alive, but to ensure that the American government never again failed to protect its citizens from catastrophic attack because of the poverty of expectations.
The only threat that rated above ‘conventional’ terrorist attacks by al-Qaeda on September 10 was the threat from Weapons of Mass Destruction. Given how wrong the American government was about al-Qaeda, it is understandable why Bush may feel that no cost is too high in reducing American exposure to ‘rogue’ states with access to such technologies and a grudge against the United States. The assistance provided by Iraqi intelligence to al-Qaeda on chemical and biological weapons while basic is a very clear illustration that such risks are not merely within the realm of bad fiction. Many of the al-Qaeda figures responsible for training the terrorists are also under Saddam Hussein’s protection in Iraq. The ‘academic’ advice provided by two former Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission scientists to bin Laden in 2001 on radiological bombs and Chemical and Biological Weapon (CBW) dispersal also highlights transfer risks.
So where did the capture of Osama bin Laden and other al-Qaeda apical figures stand among the emerging Coalition priorities after 9-11? This author would say it has been number three in the last eleven to twelve months, well after mitigating the WMD threat, and disrupting further al-Qaeda attacks on Coalition targets at home and abroad. To put it cynically it would be far, far more politically disastrous for Bush or Blair to have their citizens die by the hundreds in further ‘conventional’ or other attacks than to have bin Laden alive and free in some madrassa on Pakistani tribal land.
Within the United States in the early days after 9-11 Attorney General John Ashcroft under instructions from Bush shifted the FBI’s counter-terrorism priorities from criminal conviction to prevention through surveillance, analysis and detention.
US intelligence community priorities outside North America changed once the high intensity phase of Operation Enduring Freedom wound down in April of 2002. Al Qaeda for its part successfully conducted eight terrorist attacks between May and November of 2002, killing an estimated 253 people, 202 of them in the horrific bombing of a nightclub in Bali last October. A number of other attacks in Europe and elsewhere, including the use of chemical weapons were foiled through the cooperation of law enforcement and intelligence agencies around the world.
In short it became quickly clear that al-Qaeda’s capacity to mount exceedingly lethal attacks had not yet been attrited to the point that it was safe to concentrate on decapitation, especially given the complexities involved in getting full cooperation from the Pakistan Army and the ISI. In the last few months a broad effort has resulted in the capture of a number of senior operational figures in the last six months including Omar Al-Farouq, the Kuwaiti chief of operations in Southeast Asia, Abd’al Rahim al-NashirI the chief of Gulf operations and naval terrorism expert. Qaed Salim Sinan al-Harethi the Yemen operations chief was killed by a UAV airstrike. In addition dozens of their closest aides and assistants, the men who could best replace them have also been captured, or in some cases eliminated. Al-Qaeda’s terrorist networks were well developed but the numbers of operatives capable of planning and mounting attacks in third countries is limited, and thanks to the loss of secure facilities in Afghanistan they can no longer be quickly and easily replaced.
This is especially true of KSM, who had been involved with the world of international jihad for 17 years, at least 11 of them directly involved with al-Qaeda’s terrorism from its failures to its most dramatic success. Along with nephew Ramzi Yousef he stood out in terms of his cultural capital, i.e. his ability to become either Gulf Arab or Pakistani as the situation demands, and a Western education that gave them a dangerous familiarity with our ways. This was a man who helped al-Qaeda forge and maintain the kinds of alliances with extremist groups (especially in South East Asia and South Asia) that gave al-Qaeda the long reach that defined them as global rather than a regional threat. These organizations depend on al-Qaeda for funds, expertise and in some cases targeting guidance and even the actual suicide attackers. KSM provided that vital link, coordinating timing, allocating funding and providing advice and seconding al-Qaeda personnel such as bomb-makers and suicide bombers. He has continued to actively perform these functions from within Pakistan as evinced by message traffic and interrogations.
His loss is a blow that al-Qaeda can fully recover from in two to five years, if we allow them the time. For now in conjunction with domestic vigilance Europe, North America and South East Asia should be considerably safer, although any attacks that are already close to ready will not be affected. Pakistan is also less likely to experience al-Qaeda suicide bomb attacks such as those seen in Karachi, though local extremist gunmen will probably attack American personnel in retaliation as seen in several instances through the 1990s. East Africa and the Middle East with a much more robust al-Qaeda presence will remain dangerous.
So what can the Coalition do with the time that it has won for itself so meritoriously? After the war in Iraq our decision-makers ideally should comprehensively review progress in the war on terror and re-examine priorities. It would be a terrible shame if the neutralization of al-Qaeda’s strategic leadership was neglected because of any over-dependence on either Musharraf’s promises or his skin. Dictators come and go, but opportunities to permanently cripple terror threats are much rarer; one Tora Bora was more than enough.
Longer term we must be willing to ask ourselves what can be done to mitigate Pakistan’s nurture of domestic Islamists, a magnet and a shield for those who are willing to kill in their war against the West. While the joint operations that resulted in the arrest of figures like Abu Zubaydah, Ramzi bin al Shibh and KSM indicate that there are people and institutions in Pakistan willing to assist in the fight against terrorism, it can not be forgotten that these figures and those still at large could not have remained free for this long without deep as well as wide support in powerful Pakistani circles.
Musharraf is an opportunistic survivor, not a friend or an ally we should hang all of our hopes on. Optimists would be mistaken in assuming that the ISI and Pakistan Army are now more willing than before to deliver bin Laden and those closest to him. Benazir Bhutto’s unpopular rendering of Ramzi Yousef in 1995 and Nawaz Sharief’s extradition of Mir Aimal Kansi in 1997 did little on their own to end the Pakistani establishment’s willingness to support or host terrorist movements bent on attacking the west. In fact the record shows that in the last decade every American victory against terrorism in Pakistan has been followed by vicious and fatal attacks by Pakistani terrorists on Americans. Attacks that are rarely ever solved by Pakistani authorities. Attacks that seem to kill a disproportionate number of American intelligence personnel. A rather curious coincidence.
Editorial: North Korea - Stating the Obvious and Asking Some Questions
We are baffled by some of the discussion on North Korea. We are being told that should the US take preemptive action against North Korea’s nuclear program, the North could attack the South, raining 400,000 artillery shells and rockets on Seoul in the first hour alone with 13,000 guns and rocket launchers. A million casualties are possible in a second Korean War: presumably these are the military casualties alone. Lets ignore for a moment how realistic some of these calculations are.
How many of the commentators giving us such dire warnings take into account that the moment North Korea unleashes such a blitz, the US will react with tactical nuclear weapons? The US, and the US alone determines what the threshold for nuclear release is. Faced with the possibility of hundreds of thousands of civilian casualties in Seoul alone on the first day, and the worst case scenario of the US 2nd Infantry Division and several ROK divisions getting overrun, are we to believe the US will merely sit there and react conventionally? The US made clear any Soviet attack on West Europe, conventional or otherwise, would be met with nuclear weapons. Because the Soviets could retaliate with nuclear weapons, the US wanted the maximum possible flexibility before going to nuclear release, so it spoke of a conventional warfighting capability. There is no retaliation possible for the North Koreans, correspondingly, for the US there is no bar to lowering the nuclear threshold as low as it likes.
As a deterrent to the US, it is said North Korea can fire chemical weapons or lob missiles at Japan. Mr. Kim will sign his country’s death warrant in either case. The issue is not if Kim Il Jong understands this. The military equation between the US and North Korea is so lopsided its matters little what Mr. Kim thinks.
We are constantly told how little America really understands other cultures, other places. Has anyone considered how little Mr. Kim understands America? Here he is, escalating his pressure tactics every day. Does he understand each time he escalates the American constituency for negotiation as a way of resolving the crisis erodes further? Does he really believe the anti-US sentiment in South Korea will stop Washington from doing what America feels necessary to assure America’s security? Does he really think the US is doing other with its pious proclamations of how difficult a problem North Korea is except buying time till it finishes with Iraq? Does he understand that the US does not believe in compromising with tinpot dictators? And does he understand that by his actions he is only ensuring his own untimely demise?
Mr. Kim was quiet till the momentum for war in the Gulf was irreversible. He figured the US would compromise rather than deal with two crises at one time. He was wrong. The US has not been intimidated into dealing with him. Rather, he has neatly given the Bush administration what it lacked till now, a causus belli to attack North Korea. Even as the clock ticks down, the canny Mr. Saddam Hussein has avoided giving the US such an excuse. Mr. Kim strikes us as a bit dim.
Meanwhile, we call for opinions. We are told a handful of American aircraft can stop an armored division in its tracks. The military balance between North and South Korea is well known. Can North Korea really come storming across the DMZ, and if so, how far will it get before it is stopped, assuming purely a conventional situation?
Khalid Sheikh Mohammed - terrorist mastermind or playboy has-been?
By Richard Bennett and Marcus Cohen.
The delay of three days in handing Khalid Sheikh Mohammed over to the United States for transfer to the CIA Interrogation and terrorist holding centre at Bagram airbase in Afghanistan was occasioned by the Pakistan intelligence services noted lack of inhibitions in using extreme methods of torture to obtain quickly valuable information a suspect may have before the targeted extremist organization can react to limit any possible damage to its network, future operations or its most vulnerable members. The CIA will no doubt no play 'good cop' to the ISI or Inter-Service Intelligence agency's 'bad cop' and hope that medical treatment and the promise of future less-rigorous investigative methods will encourage full co-operation. The ultimate sanction of an early transfer to the harsh conditions of the Guantanamo Bay specialist prison facilities or the even more frightening alternative of being returned to the custody of the Pakistani interrogators may be more than sufficient to cause Mohammed to talk willingly.
The use of some form of drug-based interrogation technique as a 'check' against the natural propensity of a suspected terrorist to mislead their captors, remains a distinct possibility. Far from being a genuine 'truth drug' their use however in reducing the prisoners resistance to interrogation has been noted in US documents since the early 1960's.This however, still begs the question of actually how valuable this arrest will eventually prove to be. There are persistent reports coming from reputable sources in the Middle East and India that and assuming the Americans do indeed have the correct suspect in custody, the 'playboy terrorists' usefulness as an informant is strictly limited. Having been on the run for the best part of a year and half and indeed having only just escaped death or capture on a number of occasions his knowledge of the latest developments within the terrorist group and any planning of future Al Qa'ida operations may prove of much less value than his CIA interrogators have obviously been led to expect.
North Korea steps up confrontation - in anticipation of a US air strike?
By Richard Bennett and Marcus Cohen.
In an event reminiscent of the EP3A incident over the South China Sea in April 2001, a large United States Air Force RC-135 Electronic Warfare aircraft packed with the most sophisticated intelligence, surveillance, signals interception and long range photographic equipment was buzzed by four North Korean MiG fighters some 150miles (240km) off the coastline of the Communist state. The spy plane was closely tailed on Sunday 2nd March for some 22 minutes with one North Korean fighter moving in to within 50ft (15m) and this action will undoubtedly be labeled as 'provocative' when Washington lodges a formal protest with North Korea over the incident. North Korea considers that it has a right to protect both its territorial integrity and its military secrets from such overt intelligence gathering and particularly at a time of heightened crisis and just a few days before the US and South Korea were to begin 'Foal Eagle', a large-scale military exercises involving some 5,000 US personnel. An additional sign of how seriously the North Koreans take the regular United States surveillance flights can be seen in the 'locking on' of its missile fire control radar by one of the MiG's, a distinct warning which was certainly heeded by the American crew who sensibly wished to defuse a dangerous situation and broke of the mission to return to their home base of Kadena on the Japanese island of Okinawa.
Pyongyang is acutely aware of the rumours deliberately being leaked from Washington concerning advanced planning for a large scale surgical USAF air strike on North Korea's nuclear and missile facilities. While Pentagon officials say that so far these are no more than contingency plans, it seems likely that Washington is more than happy to discomfort the Communist regime with the prospect of significant damage being done to its advanced weapons program and perhaps even a limited nuclear strike on the hardened positions housing massed artillery and missiles that threaten the South Korean capital of Seoul. It has been calculated that the Northern army has at least 13,000 artillery pieces; many aimed at Seoul and could in theory fire some 400,000 shells in the first hour of any attack. Intelligence sources claim that many of these shells would carry Sarin nerve gas and biological weapons including a virulent weaponized strain of Anthrax.The targets are the 21 million civilians in the "kill box” as some in the US military describe the entire Seoul metropolitan area.
It would appear that all of this may not just be more 'sabre rattling' as there is a militaristic pressure group within the Bush administration that actively looks for a confrontation with North Korea. This same group will, it appears likely, have its own way over war with Iraq and the significant build up of US forces well beyond that required to simply defeat the Baghdad regime may indicate that Syria and Iran may soon be next. North Korea with a limited number of nuclear weapons, long-range missiles and an a well developed chemical and biological warfare program is a far greater military challenge. Despite its antiquated armaments, the massive North Korean armed forces are potentially a formidable opponent and the United States, once it has determined that regime change or at worst the neutralization of Pyongyang's military capability has become a pressing necessity, may well resort to a limited nuclear strike to avoid the inevitable large scale American casualties a conventional conflict with North Korea would undoubtedly bring.
Return To
Top March 5, 2003
March 4, 2003
Britain’s Sun
Says: War In 10 Days
Libya to Recall Ambassador in Row With Saudi
Mid East-Gulf Region Braces for War and
Terror
Opinion: Turkey and the US
Sadly, Al Qa'ida will survive the arrest of
9-11 plannerMarch 3
Iraq policy not to remodel Mideast, says
Powell March 3
157 tonnes of anthrax, VX nerve gas found:
Iraq March 3
Khalid Sheikh Arrested in Rawalpindi
March 2
Headlines from Debka March 2
Prince Abdullah walks out after brawl with
Qadhafi March 2
Indian Defense Budget: Up 14% or 0.4%?
March 1
Iraq: US Buildup February 28
US May Deploy Superbomb February 28
Britain’s Sun Says: War In 10 Days: It'll be soon, it'll be swift and it'll be short"
Reader Gerry Hol forwards an article from the British tabloid The Sun
The Sun says that hours after a crucial UN Security Council vote for war, likely on Wednesday March 12, US and UK forces will open their offensive against Iraq. This Friday Chief Weapons Inspector Hans Blix is expected toreport that Iraq has failed to comply with UN disarmament resolutions.
The Sun says that:
Libya To Recall Ambassador in Row With Saudi
From Pakistan’s Jang
Libya is to recall its ambassador to Riyadh for consultations following Saturday's Arab summit clash between Libyan leader Moamer Kadhafi and Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz, an official statement said Monday.
It also said the congress would review relations between Tripoli and Riyadh and Libya's membership of the Arab League, Television viewers across the Arab world saw Abdullah cursing Kadhafi at Saturday's Arab summit in the Egyptian Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh. "Who exactly brought you to power?" the Saudi royal asked the Libyan leader, alluding to suggestions that his 1969 overthrow of the British-backed monarchy had US support.
"You are a liar and your grave awaits you," the crown prince said. Kadhafi had roundly criticised Saudi support for the United States at the summit that focused on US-led war threats against Iraq, alleging that King Fahd had been ready to "strike an alliance with the devil" to defend the kingdom after Iraq's 1990 invasion of neighbouring Kuwait.
The spat sparked demonstrations by thousands of Libyans near the Saudi embassy here, and on Monday Saudi daily newspaper Okaz said Kadhafi's regime posed more of a threat to the Arab world than foreign powers and should be toppled.
Mid East-Gulf Region Braces for War and Terror
Full story in Debka
Armed forces and counter-terror security forces across the Middle East are tightly tensed up in a high state of pre-war preparedness and anti-terror jitters – even amid the jubilation over the capture in Islamabad of al Qaeda mastermind Khalid Shaikh Muhammed and the car bomb killing of Abu Musab Zarqawi’s right hand lieutenant, Abu Mohammad al Masri, in south Lebanon.
Both coups occurred on the same day, Saturday, March 1. Some regional armed forces have also advanced to new positions to guard against Iraqi pre-emptive or punitive action, predatory terrorists – or both: Saudi Arabia faces a double crunch. The Saudi army is on the alert, its troops strung out along the borders of both Iraq and Kuwait.
An air incident last Thursday, February 27, demonstrated how close the flashpoint is. An Iraqi Mig-25 fighter interceptor, the fastest warplane in its service, sneaked into Saudi air space to probe the readiness of American radar systems in the oil kingdom. Revealing the incident...
Opinion: Turkey and the United States
By Shawn Dudley, regular Analysis.com reader.
The Turkish Rejection of the US is somewhat surprising, but not entirely so, and not unrecoverable. It was always dicey since the opposition party won the '02 elections that we'd be able to follow through on a second front, and the fact that the government couldn't keep their own party together really spells more instability in Turkey than meets the eye. Remember that the Turks (since Kemal Ataturk) have really kept a lock down on the Imams, and the current government ran on a campaign to "liberate" the mosques from government control (with EU endorsement for such a position). Put another way, the old Turkish government controlled the religion in a matter like the Soviet Union controlled the Orthodox Church during Communism. We're seeing the reverberations from that now.
The path is clear on two alternative avenues we can take.
#1 - The Kurds. It's safe to say the Turks were never that comfortable with our dealings with the Kurds. The Turks have a deep, almost irrational fear of the Kurds getting their own state, and have played almost every card they could to prevent such a occurance. But now that the Turkish parliament has sided with Iraq in effect, the US is finally free to deal with the Kurds openly, and has a host of offerings for their (more than willing) cooperation against Iraq, the leading one which is formal statehood, either as Kurdistan or as one of the major ruling parties in Iraq. As long as the Turks were players in the Iraq crisis, the US had to at least give the Turks deference on this issue. Now the Kurds can fill in the gap, and provide the US their full cooperation in forming a second front as well as support for the Post-War Iraq. Among all of the Iraq opposition groups, the Kurds are the most organized, the most well armed, and have the clearest objectives. It seems only natural they'll float to the top in the post-Hussein government. What else is bad for the Turks is that with the US military offering protection for Kurds, there's very little Turkey can do to stop the Kurds from gaining independence. Which is only right, as the Kurds are perhaps the world's largest ethnic group (35 million) without a nation of their own.
#2 - The Hashemites. The US still needs a major Muslim partner in order to give its wartime coalition legitimacy in the Middle East. The Gulf Emirates don't really count in this regard, but Jordan does. Unlike King Hussein, King Abdullah to his credit sees Iraq both for what it is, and what it could be. The Hashemites, of course, were the losers in the Post World War I Middle East shake-up, getting only two states (Transjordan, Iraq) under their control despite their strong ties to the British, while the American-supported Sauds ejected the Hashemites from Arabia proper. In order to create the proper stability in post-War Iraq, where the majority is either Shia or Kurd, but the ruling class is Sunni, the US may sponsor a Hashemite ruler in Baghdad. While no doubt Jordan would publically protest, providing the Hashemite clan with real oil power (and an even footing with their rivals the Saudis) would be a deal too good to give up. It's just this kind of Middle East shakeup that makes both Saudi Arabia and Turkey nervous.
Jordan has another good reason to eliminate Hussein - Hussien's radicalization of the Palestinians. Abdullah's greatest fear is that the some 3 million Palestinians currently residing in Jordan will eventually try to topple the government, then use Jordan as a springboard to destroy Israel. Eliminating Hussein pulls the rug out from under the PLO, and provides the groundwork for an independent Palestine that can't be a threat to either Israel or Jordan (and gives Jordan a chance to push some of its own Palestinian population over to the new state, thereby relieving pressure on the regime).
The price for these offerings is clear enough - tangible US support for the liberation of Iraq. In the case of the Kurds, they are almost too happy to assist, allowing the US to establish airfields, command centers, intelligence posts, and now with the Turks out, probably actual combat forces of some size. The Jordanians have already agreed publicly to serve as a spring board for a limited amount of US troops, which are mainly SpecOps types. The US has also deployed a Patriot battalion there, which could be preparation for a larger effort. Now with the loss of a Turkish front, the US may be looking to call in the deal with Jordan.
The potential military effects are:
A) We could see a major deployment of US combat troops in Kurdistan, beyond special forces units. This would have to be something light, like an Airborne force, and probably in strength around one-three brigades (the 82nd Airborne or 10th Mountain suit the role). Such a force can fly into a number of airfields in the region that can handle C-17s and C-130s. While not a large force, it would be enough to guarantee entry into the major city of Kirkuk in northern Iraq. It would also greatly dissuade the Turks from intervening to prevent the Kurds from seizing oil facilities.
B) The 4th Infantry Division, now unable to enter Iraq through Turkey, could dock it's ships in the Gulf of Aqaba and use Jordan as their launch point, to almost the same effect. While Jordan would be temporarily unpopular in the Arab world at large, the benefits would definitely outweigh the risks.
It's all very interesting to contemplate the above possibilities, which I admit really work out to educated guesses, but the main fact still remains clear. Barring something really dramatic (like the French Foreign Legion flying into Baghdad to serve as Saddam Hussein's lifeguard), the US is going to invade Iraq - it has to. Honor and reputation are on the line for the US, and the US is going to respect like states and peoples that can see our point, and be willing to stick their necks out enough to support it.
Return To
Top March 4, 2003
March 3, 2003
Sadly, Al
Qa'ida will survive the arrest of 9-11 planner
Iraq policy not to remodel Mideast, says
Powell
157 tonnes of anthrax, VX nerve gas found:
Iraq
Khalid Sheikh Arrested in Rawalpindi
March 2
Headlines from Debka March 2
Prince Abdullah walks out after brawl with
Qadhafi March 2
Indian Defense Budget: Up 14% or 0.4%?
March 1
Pakistan receives $ 891m for playing role of
front line state March 1
Germany Withdraws Elite Troops from
Afghanistan March 1
FARC Warns US Against Hostage Rescue
March 1
U.S. Told Pakistan To Stop Infiltration
February 28
Iraq: US Buildup February 28
US May Deploy Superbomb February 28
U.S. Gulf Commander Fine-Tunes War Plan
February 27
Summary Analysis of the National Guard
Mobilization February 26
Senior Iraq Defector May Not Have Made It -
Part II February 26
By Richard M Bennett. He can be reached at rbm@supanet.com
The capture by Pakistani and CIA officials of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed at around 4am on the 1st March and who is suspected of being one of the main planners behind 9-11 may not in the end turn out to be quite the coup it at first appears to be or in fact the devastating blow to Al Qa'ida predicted by some analysts. Mohammed had been on the run for some 18 months and in particular since his near arrest on September 14th 2002. It is rumoured that he had been increasingly isolated from the main command structure of Islamic Jihad where the 37-year-old Kuwaiti was treated with some suspicion by the new generation of post-Afghanistan terrorist leaders who are mainly of Algerian, Egyptian, Yemeni and Chechen origin. Mohammed, thought of by Western Intelligence as something of a 'Mr Fix-it' was in fact a rather garrulous, boastful playboy and his distinct lack of security mindedness is not believed to have endeared him to senior Al Qa'ida members including Osama Bin Laden.
Despite the suspicions that his arrest in Rawalpindi's well-to-do Westridge district and only a few minutes drive from the Army and Security headquarters suggested that he may still have been under the protection of dissident elements within Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence or ISI, so far unsubstantiated rumours have been circulated that Mohammed had become a 'disposable' asset of late. No longer considered to be in the forefront of terrorist planning within Al Qa'ida he may well have been offered to the Pakistan authorities to present to their US allies as proof of Islamabad's commitment to the War on Terrorism.
In one move Al Qa'ida has perhaps managed to rid itself of the growing liability of a man who had become so well known and hunted that the mere act of travel was a huge risk for his supporters and contact was becoming increasingly dangerous for those he wished to meet. It has given a Whitehouse under pressure something to crow about and indeed was hailed by White House press secretary Ari Fleischer as "a wonderful blow to inflict on Al Qa'ida". At the same time it has eased the situation of the Pakistan authorities with of course, potential benefits to Al Qa'ida operations within that country.
Mohammed has been described by Western intelligence officials and analysts as the principal planner of operations for Osama Bin Laden's international network and he is claimed to be the highest-ranking terrorist leader to be captured during the US-led campaign. Though it is understood that he might not be charged in connection with the suicide attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, evidence of his involvement in Al Qa'ida includes a radio interview conducted in December 2002 in which the ever boastful Mohammed said he was the mastermind of the attack. This is believed to have persuaded other members of the Al Qa'ida leadership that his continued value to the organization was now severely limited. Mohammed has also been mentioned in connection with the kidnapping and subsequent murder of the Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl, a year ago. In addition, he has been under indictment since 1996 in connection with a plot to blow up a number of US commercial flights over the Philippines.
It must be considered highly doubtful whether his loss or the probably quite limited information he may have on future Al Qa'ida operations will seriously damage the terrorist group which is just one of some 12-14 such groups that make up the larger Islamic Jihad movement from which Mohammed is believed to have been largely excluded in recent months. Quite correctly however CIA and FBI Counter-Terrorist experts are eagerly anticipating a potential windfall of useful background and biographical information should Mohammed choose to co-operate, though in this case the United States may well be tempted to use less conventional methods of interrogation including the use of sophisticated drugs to extract much needed information quickly.
However, the Islamic terrorists are in this war for the long haul and they are only too aware that they will suffer many set-backs and lose some of their leaders. The loss or sacrifice of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed will not in the long run severely threaten Al Qai'da and his arrest may indeed be more of a symptom of an internal feud within the terrorist organization that simply resulted in a bit of useful 'house-clearing'
Iraq policy not to remodel Mideast, says Powell
A Press Trust of India story, reported in the Times of India.
[Note to Secretary Powell from Ravi Rikhye: Sir, I realize you have to say what you have to say for public consumption, but please don’t make the US look like an idiot. The US offensive against Iraq makes sense only as Step 1 of a policy to remake the Mideast. We at Orbat.com have joined others in saying, for the past some months, that this is what the US intends. It is only recently that President Bush “let slip” that this was the objective. It is a good objective. I wish you would trust the American people to understand the real imperatives instead of coming up with fake explanations that are difficult to accept if one believes the US is acting rationally.]
Denying that the American strategy on Iraq is targeted towards "remodelling of the Middle East", US Secretary of State Colin Powell has said Washington only wants to put in place a new regime which will be "more responsible".
Asked by a correspondent about French Foreign Minister's statement that "the US strategy on Iraq is sliding from disarmament towards remodelling of the Middle East," Powell on Sunday said "I disagree categorically with my colleague Dominique de Villepin's comment."
"(The Security Council resolution) 1441, which we are trying to implement, had one goal, and that was to disarm Iraq of its weapons of mass destruction. France voted for the resolution, as did the United States of America," Powell said.
He said if Iraq had disarmed itself over the past 12 years or the last several months since resolution 1441 was enacted, "we would not be facing the crisis that we now have before us."
"I must say, however, that if we are unable to get Iraq to comply, and military action is necessary to remove this regime and to get rid of the weapons of mass destruction, it is quite clear to me that a new regime would be more responsive to the needs of its people, would live in peace with its neighbours, and perhaps that would assist the region in finding more peace."
"But the suggestion that we are doing this because we want to go to every country in the Middle East and rearrange all of its pieces is not correct, and I think Minister de Villepin is wrong," Powell asserted.
157 tonnes of anthrax, VX nerve gas found: Iraq
Story from the Jang
[Orbat.com note: we wonder if this headline should have read 157 tonnes of bombs.]
BAGHDAD: Ongoing excavations have led to the discovery of important quantities of anthrax and VX nerve agent, Iraqi presidential adviser Amer al-Saadi said on Sunday.
UN inspectors have been seeking clarification for years of the whereabouts of such deadly agents. Amer said excavations at the al-Aziziya air base, 104 kilometres south-west of Baghdad, had uncovered nearly all bomb fragments filled with tonnes of toxic agents which Iraq insists it destroyed unilaterally in 1991.
"So far we have reached a figure not quite 157 (tonnes of anthrax), but we are nearing it, there is work in progress," he told a news conference. "So far, more than eight (bombs) have been found which were intact, not perforated, which could be tested for the material inside," he said.
Amer also said there was "another question with the anthrax, which is the bulk material that was left over, that was unfilled and that was unilaterally destroyed also."
The material "is in a site called al-Hakam, and this is what the meeting this evening is all about" between newly arrived UN biological experts and Iraqi authorities. "The destruction site is known and it is still undisturbed and we could look for DNA signatures of those materials and perhaps we could quantify this material, not just qualitative tests, but quantitative tests to estimate how much was destroyed there," he said. "That, in addition to the 157 tonnes in al-Aziziya, will make the total," he said. Amer added the 1.5 tonnes of VX still to be accounted for "was unilaterally destroyed in a dumping site near al-Muthanna State Establishment, and we have made analyses which strongly indicate that the total material was destroyed there."
Also on Sunday, Iraq destroyed six more al-Samoud 2 missiles with UN weapons inspectors looking on, but warned it might suspend the destruction programme if the US indicated it would go to war anyway. In two days, Iraq has destroyed 10 of the banned weapons, about a tenth of its stock. It has also destroyed two casting chambers used to make engines for the al-Fatah missile. Iraq destroyed those chambers in the 1990s, only to rebuild them. "As you can see, there is pro-active cooperation from the Iraqi side," Amer said. "Practically all the areas of concern to UNMOVIC (the UN inspection team) and the subjects of remaining disarmament questions have been addressed," he said. "We hope that it will be to the satisfaction of UNMOVIC."
But he cautioned that if the US indicated it would go to war anyway, Iraq might stop destroying the missiles, which fly farther than the 150 kilometres allowed by the United Nations. "If it turns out at an early stage during this month that America is not going to a legal way, then why should we continue?" Amer asked.
The US, which is leading the push for war against Iraq, derided the beginning of the destruction on Saturday. A White House spokeswoman called Iraq's move "part of its game of deception". US Senator Joseph Biden, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said on 'Fox News Sunday' that "destroying all of the missiles is not enough for me". He said Iraq also needed to account for "all of the other weapons of mass destruction that we know have not been accounted for".
Iraq has agreed to destroy all unassembled pieces, software, launchers, fuel and equipment used to make the al-Samoud 2 in "a few days or a very short few weeks", according to Demetrius Perricos, the deputy of chief weapons inspector Hans Blix. Iraq said its cooperation is an attempt to avert an US-led war against it. "War is the worst thing, and we are trying to do whatever we can to avoid war so we are doing our utmost to cooperate," Iraq's UN ambassador, Mohammed al-Douri, said in New York.
Amer al-Saadi indicated it is not easy for Iraq to do that. He said Iraq wouldn't let anyone see photographs or video images of the missile destruction - despite the potential impact on world opinion - because it would be too bitter for the Iraqi people to watch. "It is too harsh. It is unacceptable," he said sombrely. "That's why we have released no pictures."
Inspectors returned on Sunday to al-Aziziya where Iraq says it destroyed R-400 bombs filled with biological weapons in 1991. Amer said 157 of the R-400 bombs contained anthrax, aflotoxin and botulin toxin. He said Iraq has been excavating them and so far has uncovered eight bombs intact. He argued for continued inspections. He said US claims that Iraq isn't disarming are lies - and said the only way to find out is with an independent arbiter.
However, the Pentagon was contemplating "Plan B" for its anticipated war after Turkey refused to allow US combat troops to launch invasion from its territory. A Defence Department official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that no "other decision" had been made regarding war plans in light of the Turkish vote, but US media has reported details of an alternative.
Return To
Top March 3, 2003
March 2, 2003
Khalid Sheikh
Arrested in Rawalpindi
Headlines from Debka
Prince Abdullah walks out after brawl with
Qadhafi
Indian Defense Budget: Up 14% or 0.4%?
March 1
Pakistan receives $ 891m for playing role of
front line state March 1
Germany Withdraws Elite Troops from
Afghanistan March 1
FARC Warns US Against Hostage Rescue
March 1
U.S. Told Pakistan To Stop Infiltration
February 28
Iraq: US Buildup February 28
US May Deploy Superbomb February 28
U.S. Gulf Commander Fine-Tunes War Plan
February 27
Rumsfeld, Reyes to Meet on Philippines' Abu
Sayyaf Threat February 27
Karzai Seeks Funds for Provincial Irregulars
February 27
Half Measures or Paradigm Shift? February
27
Summary Analysis of the National Guard
Mobilization February 26
Senior Iraq Defector May Not Have Made It -
Part II February 26
Khalid Sheikh arrested in Rawalpindi
For full story, click Jang
ISLAMABAD: Government on Saturday said it arrested Khalid Sheikh Muhammad, suspected mastermind behind the September 11 attacks in the United States.
"We have finally apprehended Khalid Sheikh Muhammad," presidential spokesman Rashid Qureshi told Reuters. "It was the work of Pakistani intelligence agencies...It is a big achievement. He is the kingpin of al-Qaeda."
Khalid, who is on the American FBI's most wanted list, was among three people arrested in Rawalpindi, the official said on condition of anonymity. The US officials regard Khalid as a key al-Qaeda lieutenant and organiser of the September 11 attacks in the US.
Khalid, 37, has not been charged in the Sept 11 attacks, but he has been charged in a 1995 terror plot. He is one of the FBI's most wanted terror suspects, and the US government was offering up to $25 million for information leading to his capture.
Earlier, Interior Minister Faisal Saleh Hayat told Reuters that "we have detained three terror suspects this morning. One is a Pakistani and two are foreign nationals. The raid was carried out to find al-Qaeda suspects, but it is too early to say any more about it till the investigation is complete."
Headlines From Debka
Failing an absolute majority, Turkish parliament rejects request by Ankara government to allow US forces bases for invasion of Iraq and deployment of Turkish troops abroad. This is major setback to US war command’s plan for northern front against Iraq, but alternatives were prepared for the contingency of Turkey balking at active participation in Iraq war.
US expects Pakistan to hand over for interrogation the most senior al Qaeda leader captured, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, nicknamed The Mukhtar who was detained near Islamabad Saturday. Believed mastermind of September 11 attack, operations in Far East and last year's attack on Israeli targets in Mombasa, Kuwait-born Mohammed is uncle of Ramzi Yousef, who is serving prison sentence for attempted bombing of New York’s Twin Towers in 1993.
Earlier Saturday, car bomb killed Abu Mohammad al-Masri, senior al Qaeda man in south Lebanon and Afghan war veteran, at Sidon’s Ein Hilweh camp Saturday. Masri’s attackers were described as driving a Beirut-registered, explosives car into the camp Friday night. It was timed to explode as he arrived at a mosque. DEBKAfile’s terror experts: al-Masri was operational right hand of al Qaeda commander Abu Musab Zarqawi and designated planner of bio-chemical terror attack against Israel. He lived in a Palestinian location for six years indicating close Palestinian-al Qaeda relationship. DEBKAfile revealed the roles of both The Mukhtar and al Masri in article published January 4, 2003
DEBKAfile Special Correspondent in Kuwait reports: Two Kuwaiti nationals detained Saturday in car loaded with Molotov cocktails outside US-British press center at Kuwait Hilton Resort Hotel. Many American soldiers also billeted in hotel. Further 11 “Kuwaiti Afghans” (al Qaeda) rounded up overnight in Kuwait City
Iran places armed forces on war alert, deploys troops along its border with Iraq. DEBKAfile military sources: Total tank force of 800 divided between Khorramshahr in south, Qasr e-Shirin in north
2,300 men of 26th Marine Expeditionary Force trained to counter biological and chemical attacks leave for Gulf Tuesday. Sixth aircraft carrier Nimitz on way to region, also B-2 stealth bombers
Britain to contribute to Gulf build-up another 100 fixed wing aircraft capable of delivering extremely precise weapons and 27 helicopters
Pentagon advises US media companies to evacuate their correspondents from Baghdad at once
US Patriot anti-missile batteries to be deployed in emergency formation in Central Israel early next week
FBI is using small Cessna 182 spy planes to monitor American universities with large foreign student bodies. Flights detected over Indiana University which has 3,300 foreign students
Prince Abdullah walks out after brawl with Qadhafi
Story from Jang
SHARM EL-SHEIKH, Egypt: An Arab summit on the Iraq crisis was marred by a televised row between Libyan leader Moamar Qadhafi and Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz, which ended in a brief walk-out by the Saudi delegation.
The two Arab leaders exchanged diatribes in the full glare of the cameras before Egyptian state television pulled the plug on its live feed from the conference hall in this Red Sea resort. The row erupted after Qadhafi criticised Saudi Arabia for hosting US forces. Qadhafi charged that Saudi Arabia's King Fahd had been ready to "strike an alliance with the devil" to defend the kingdom after Iraq's 1990 invasion of neighbouring Kuwait.
Crown Prince Abdullah then cut in and pointing a finger at Qadhafi said: "... the kingdom of Saudi Arabia is not an agent of imperialism like you and others are. Who brought you to power? ... You are a liar and your grave awaits you." Abdullah asked Qadhafi, pointing a finger at him angrily: "Don't speak or interfere in things, which you have no luck or chance in."
At that point the live coverage ended but delegates said the Libyan leader refused to drop his accusations, railing against the base facilities granted by Saudi Arabia to the United States.
Crown Prince Abdullah then walked out of the conference room, forcing the adjournment of the summit for more than half an hour, while other participants calmed down the Saudi and Libyan delegations. The presidents of Egypt, Syria and Lebanon followed Prince Abdullah and convinced him to return to the meeting, sources at the meeting told Reuters. When the summit eventually resumed, it did so without the live television feed which had spotlighted the huge divisions within the Arab world over the US military build-up in the Gulf. The TV coverage only resumed with the closing speech of Arab League Secretary-General Amr Mussa.
Return To
Top March 2, 2003
March 1, 2003
Indian Defense
Budget: Up 14% or 0.4%?
Pakistan receives $ 891m for playing role of
front line state
Germany Withdraws Elite Troops from
Afghanistan
FARC Warns US Against Hostage Rescue
U.S. Told Pakistan To Stop Infiltration
February 28
Iraq: US Buildup February 28
US May Deploy Superbomb February 28
U.S. Gulf Commander Fine-Tunes War Plan
February 27
Rumsfeld, Reyes to Meet on Philippines' Abu
Sayyaf Threat February 27
Karzai Seeks Funds for Provincial Irregulars
February 27
Half Measures or Paradigm Shift? February
27
Summary Analysis of the National Guard
Mobilization February 26
Senior Iraq Defector May Not Have Made It -
Part II February 26
Indian Defense Budget: Up 14% or 0.4%?
The Times of India reports that the Indian defense budget is up by 14% and simultaneously by 0.4%. After having returned more than $1 billion to the treasury from the 2001-02 budget, the Indian MOD has this year has returned almost twice as much. So on 2002-03 actual expenditure of about $12 billion, the defense expenditure has gone up 14%. But on the planned 2002-03 expenditure of $13.5 billion, the increase is a nominal 0.4%, insufficient even to account for inflation.
The reason for the underspending? The MOD is refusing to place weapons contracts because in India no matter where a contract is awarded, allegations are made of bribery and corruption. If the defense bureaucrats don’t want to be exposed to these allegations, particularly with so much money allotted for equipment purchase after Kargil 1999, one can hardly blame them. India is a democracy, so everyone gets her or his say when a contract is awarded. But it is not yet a mature democracy, so those who raise newspaper campaigns and questions in parliament when a contract goes to A and not B, don’t understand they are misusing democracy to damage the country. Conversely, there is no transparency in the defense purchase process – another example of India not being a mature democracy. So often there is wrongdoing in the award of contracts, and the process is not seen to be honest, even when it is.
The following is part of the Times of India report:
Defence gets more firepower
…government has hiked the defence allocation even when the ministry failed to spend Rs 9,000 crore of its last year’s share. The defence allotment of Rs 65,300 crore marks only a notional increase of Rs 300 crore when compared to last year’s budgetary estimate of Rs 65,000 crore.
Against the revised estimate of Rs 56,000 crore for 2003, however, the current allocation represents a 14% hike.
The unspent Rs 9,000 crore, is put down to the inability to sew up major purchases including aircraft trainers for IAF, an aircraft carrier for the Navy and other equipment for the Army.
The capital outlay on defence services, set at Rs 20,952 crore this year, however, shows the government is going to press ahead with the long-awaited purchases, especially an aircraft carrier for the Navy and AJTs for the Air force. Rs 5,020 has been earmarked for naval purchases, as against last year’s spending of Rs 1,717 crore under the head.
Pakistan receives $ 891m for playing role of front line state
Islamabad, Feb 28, IRNA -- Pakistan National Assembly was informed on Friday, that the country has received over eight hundred and ninety-one million dollars from the United States, Britain, European Union, Japan and Saudi Arabia as compensation being front line state in the Afghan operation.
Advisor to the Prime Minister on Finance, Mr. Shaukat Aziz told the Lower House of the parliament that the country also got debt relief from bilateral and multilateral donors.
Pakistan joined the U.S-led coalition for attack on Afghanistan Taliban in late 2001 despite strong opposition from the country's Islamic groups.
Pakistan had changed its years of pro-Taliban policy after the September 11 attacks in the United States.
"This policy has reduced our debt liability by twenty-seven percent for thirty years. Our foreign exchange reserves are now equal to eleven months of imports and the rupee has been strengthened," Aziz said.
In addition Pakistan is expecting one billion dollars bilateral credit write off by the United States, he said.
Germany Withdraws Elite Troops from Afghanistan
Germany pulls out elite anti-terror troops from Afghanistan:daily
Germany has pulled out its elite KSK anti-terror forces from Afghanistan, the daily Bild cited German army circles as saying on Friday.
The 100 elite anti-terror soldiers were withdrawn from Afghanistan last week, according to the paper.
The KSK forces were already replaced by the German Airborne Brigade 31, based in the north German city of Oldenburg.
The German defense ministry refused to comment on the report.
The secretive elite KSK unit was deployed in Afghanistan in the winter of 2001 to assist American forces in hunting down alleged al-Qaeda terrorists.
FARC Warns US Against Hostage Rescue
For full story clickWashington Times
Colombia's largest Marxist insurgency warned yesterday against any attempt to rescue three American prisoners who were captured while surveying coca fields for a Maryland-based Pentagon contractor.
"The prisoners of war of the FARC do run the risk of dying as a consequence of a cross fire between members of our guerrilla organization and units of the state security forces, if they attempt to rescue the prisoners by force of arms," said Raul Reyes, a spokesman for the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).
Mr. Reyes' comments were delivered in writing to Noticias Uno, a TV news station in Bogota.
Two of the plane's passengers, Colombian Sgt. Luis Alcides Cruz and American Thomas John Janis, 56, a former U.S. soldier who earned a Bronze Star, were executed by FARC guerrillas immediately after their plane crashed earlier this month.
FARC confirmed the capture of the other three passengers, all Americans, and are now holding them hostage in exchange for the release of guerrillas in Colombian jails.
"The three gringo prisoners of war in the power of our organization will be freed along with the Colombian prisoners of war once an exchange occurs in a large demilitarized zone," said a FARC statement posted on its Web site on Monday.
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