News Archive for June, 2003
[At 0230 GMT, June 29] The UK Telegraph reports that a task force consisting of 500 men from 1st Para, tanks, and attack helicopters, returned to Majar near Amara, determined to reestablish control, but had consulted with the local authorities first; say while they are determined to find the killers of the six MPs, they will not exact retribution from the town; British still being cagey about details, but say 4 of them soldiers were shot in the head at close range; locals express sorrow for killings but still say British - this would be the 1st Para patrol - killed four Iraqis first; British deny this and say they first used rubber bullets for crowd control, opened fire at two men only when the latter pointed their AK-47s at them
US Command says since May 1, 24 US service personnel have been killed and 36 died in accidents; say attacks are mainly the work of some rejectionists and criminals; US said moving to rearrest many Saddam had set free before the invasion, 900 said rearrested yesterday alone
Loyalist soldiers continue on drunken looting rampage in Monrovia, rebels quiet, but said that they are biding their time and fighting will start again; West Africans to send 5,000 peacekeepers; Despite President Bush's harsh words, US has not taken action as yet; Kearsarge ARG is holding off Liberian coast with Marine BLT
Debka says US at last-minute holds back transfer of five Syrian soldiers because two provide details of Syrian involvement in anti-US resistance in Iraq
Two terrorists crossing from Pakistan attack Indian army base killing 12 before being themselves killed; 16 years after Kashmir insurgency began, Indian Army figures out it should cut the tall grass typical of many lower-lying areas around its posts as this provides cover for terrorists
[At 0200 GMT, June 28] CNN says that though the British deny any ultimatum, local authorities in the village near Amara, where six British Military Policemen were killed, have been given 48 hours to hand over the killers; ultimatum has been broadcast by locals over loudspeakers; UK sources say the 6 MPs had nothing to do with the incident that started when a 1st Para patrol entered the city, and that the MPs were murdered
All major Palestine terror groups agree to ceasefire; Israel to start withdrawing from Palestine towns and to reopen roads
French expand their patrol zone in Bunia, NE Congo, say time for militias to withdraw peacefully is up, anyone caught with guns will be disarmed; UN asks to raise MONUC force by 2,000 to almost 10,000 [Orbat.com comment: The DRC is about 30% the sized of the entire United States]
CNN reports that Iran detains al-Zarawari, Bin Ladin's Number 2, but Teheran denies, says only it has arrested people who need to be identified
Monrovia ceasefire again comes into effect; both sides spend their time looting locals
At 0130 GMT, June 27] UK Telegraph says Ms. Condolezza Rice, President Bush's National security advisor, tells IISS London that US wants multi-lateral approach to N Korea, Iran nuclear efforts, but if Europe will not help, US will go to it alone
Sixth blast at an Iraqi pipeline, 3 US soldiers killed in separate incidents
Said arriving UK Parachute Regiment patrol antagonized Amara residents, firing began, paras were extricated, but someone forgot about the RMP detachment that was at Amara, said they had their radios in their vehicles and were unable to reach them, said they had little ammunition
CNN report suggests the Parachute Regiment fracas had nothing to do with the MPs, and that they were killed in a separate incident of which details are unavailable; the 4 Iraqi dead said to be at hands of the para patrol
UK investigation so far suggests 31-year tribal leader is at heart of incident, but UK rules out raid on the town, says this was an isolated incident due misunderstanding, and soft approach will continue; in interview with Telegraph tribal leader suggests fire at police station where the MPs made their last stand might have started due to electrical fault
CNN says UK Defense Minister says UK prepared to send 5,000 reinforcements to Iraq if needed; British force has been considerably reduced
BBC says "Comical Ali", former Iraq Information Minister al Sahaaf still trying to get Americans to arrest him as he fears for his safety, US still refusing
Fighting continues in Monrovia; US asks President Taylor to step down; British ask US to lead peacekeeping force, US refuses, saying fighting has to stop first
[0230 GMT, June 26] CNN quotes locals in Amara as saying killing of six UK military policemen [156th Provost Company, 16th AA Bde] was a mistake they regret; first reports said that the soldiers were killed after a mob, angry at searches of their homes for weapons, stormed the police station; said that the Iraqi policemen in the station told the British soldiers to escape with them, but the soldiers refused [Orbat.com asks: the UK's warm and mushy approach to local policing has much to recommend it; but why were six MPs left isolated and unable to call for reinforcements?]
CNN, other sources say Palestine terror groups agree to a 3 month truce; President Bush says he'll believe it when he sees it; others say the Road Map calls for a ceasefire, not just a limited truce
US media reports Iraqi scientist who decides to aid US leads them to uranium enrichment centrifuge parts, much excitement over WMD being discovered at last; Orbat.com is unsure if this find has any practical significance because they date from Iran's program pre Gulf I
US seems to making progress in Fallujah, previously totally hostile; local police force has been equipped and local TV restored; city mayor has said Iraqis know who is really for the people and who against, local police admit they are fearful to acting against resistors, lack of sufficient firepower one problem - so far US has given only revolvers
Debka says US starts construction on two giant electronic intercept facilities, one in Baghdad and one at Mosul, will be built in stages over next two years, will employ 4,000 personnel; Mosul will be able to intercept all transmissions in Iran-Syria area, among other things this will substantially impact their plans - if any - to send terrorists to Iraq; Baghdad facility is to monitor Sunni belt against terrorist and other activity
[At 0300 GMT, June 25] Debka quotes Israel Air Force Chief as saying he has received no orders to cease targeted assassinations
US to give Pakistan $1.5 billion arms aid over five years; modest package includes P-3s for surveillance over North Arabian Sea [Pakistan has 2 of original 3 left], additional C-130s, more HueyCobras [Pakistan has perhaps 17 of orginal in two army squadrons] and UH-1s; also included is communication equipment to improve interoperability with US forces [Orbat.com comment: package seems carefully crafted to assist US in terror war, and to avoid aggravating India]; again, additional F-16s refused
For some reason US still holding five Syrian border guards, ostensibly for medical treatment after US convoy/border attack, no indication Syria has asked US to treat the soldiers
Rebels break ceasefire, previous accusations that Liberian forces had made several violations, begin new offensive on Monrovia, causing great panic in capital
[At 0300 GMT, June 24] US releases most of 20 arrested in convoy attack near Syrian border, no word on how many killed; 6-7 vehicles involved, some broke for Syrian border, US said holding five Syrian guards wounded when firefight with the guards erupted; US says it had no prior knowledge Saddam or sons were in convoy
Yesterday's Debka report that new Iraqi Army to form on July 15th confirmed, will reach 40,000 in one year, appears in first year 12,000 men will be enrolled, 2-3 brigades will be raised in first year, some say first brigade will take one year to form; Orbat.com assumes this is because almost all former professional soldiers will not be permitted to join
BBC says US to now pay $50-$250 monthly stipends to former Iraqi military professional personnel, conscripts to get one-off payment [Orbat.com comment: this move was overdue and should have been implemented from the start; instead US deliberately left out military from maintenance grants given to other government employees]
Iraq estimated to earn $5 billion this year from oil exports, after reparations to Kuwait $3.5 billion will be left; this assumes oil production will rise as planned
Haartez of Israel quotes official sources to say 34% Israeli youth escape military service: 11.5% don't enlist or get psychiatric discharges; 9.5% are seminary students exempt from service; 2.6% fail minimum IQ or other requirements; 1.4% have serious criminal records; 9% are discharged for health reasons; 5% live abroad with their parents
Swiss freeze Liberian President Taylor's bank accounts
Sudan firm says 680 tons of explosive seized by Greeks in national waters belongs to it; BBC says ship was sailing around for six weeks in Mediterranean after loading explosives May 12 at Tunis, was not headed for Sudan and initial inquiries showed the company listed on manifest did not exist; Greece arrests crew on technicalities to do with informing authorities about the cargo once ship entered Greek waters
[At 0330 GMT, June 24] US officials and Senate Intelligence Committee members confirm yesterday's UK Observer's story: TF 20, composed of covert SF troops, attacked a convoy near Al Qaim, Syrian border; used information gained from Iraqis in custody; unknown number of persons were captured and killed; US sources said hopeful Saddam killed but have no confirmation as yet
Debka says US administrator for Iraq announces formation of first stage Iraq Army will begin July 15, 40,000 to be recruited; also that appointments are expected for Iraqis to start writing constitution
Oil pipeline to Baghdad sabotaged, 3-4 days needed to repair; meanwhile Iraq said by OPEC sources to be producing 800,000 bbl/day, sufficient for local consumption, expected to go to 1.5 million bbl/day next month; but year end target lowered to 2 million bbl/day from 2.5 million bbl/day
BBC says Greek SF seize ship with 680 tons of explosives acting on tip from unnamed country, said possible consignment is for a government
[At 0300 GMT, June 12] Times of India says India has decided to ally with the United States short of signing a formal agreement, is working out how to contribute 20,000 troops to Iraq, US willing to provide nominal UN cover to assuage Indian domestic critics of proposed move
Debka says US and Israel continuing indirect talks with Hamas for ceasefire despite latest terror bombing and Israeli retaliation; yesterday US President was upset with Israel for its assassination attempt against Hamas leaders, today on US TV he was visibly furious with Hamas, called for Europe and others to aid US in cutting off funding for Hamas; Haaretz says Israeli defense minister says Arafat may have to be deported soon, Arafat reported to condemn yesterday's suicide bombing
ROK increases defense budget by 28% to $18 billion but still only 3.2% of GNP, earlier US had said it will spend $11 billion on 150 projects to strengthen its forces in ROK [Orbat.com comment: this is only the first fall-out of N Korea's foolishly antagonistic policy towards US/ROK]
CNN reports President Taylor of Liberia meets rebels, both agree to ceasefire and talks; deal sees transitional government and UN peacekeepers; Taylor says he wants part of new government and immunity from war crimes tribunal
Reuters reports renewed fighting in North Kivu, Congo, 250 miles south of Bunia
[At 0300 GMT June 11] US 4th MechDiv launches Operational Peninsula Strike at Balad, N of Baghdad on Tigris River, to root out Saddam loyalists, large scale arrests, though most detainees released after questioning; meanwhile, news reports again say Faullujah residents upset because US policing town, in Saddam's time the town did not tolerate any police activity; appears likely outside Arabs are among instigators of attacks on US troops, and move from town to town to stir up resistance
Said US SecDef Rumsfeld advisors ardor for light, airmobile tank and reduction of heavy mechanized forces has cooled after Iraq war showed even heavy armor is vulnerable in built-up areas
BBC reports rebel push on Monrovia appears to be slowly, 100,000 refugees inside city; UN humanitarian chief Rudd Lubbers calls for UN military intervention
Indian Deputy PM says Delhi undecided on sending peacekeeping troops to Iraq; Times of India says Bush administration making India's commitment a prerequisite for according India special relationship and reconstruction work in Iraq
Jang of Pakistan reports President Musharraf, inaugurating a new road tunnel in NW Frontier Province, blasts provisional government for introducing Sharia law [Orbat.com comment: curiously, the President's anger was expressed while leading politicians/civil servants of the provincial administration were present at the ceremony, but there is no word on what the President plans to do to roll back the new laws]
[AT 0300 GMT, June 10] Globalsecurity.org says 3rd Bde, 3rd MechDiv preparing to move to Kuwait prior to return home - this move was expected; but Globalsecurity.org adds 1st Bde may also return, contrary to reports that US would keep most of the division in Iraq because of law and order problem [Orbat.com question: are other troops going to Iraq or has US decided the situation has improved?]
Washington Post now says only 33 museum quality pieces lost at Baghdad Museum; Orbat.com sees no introspection about Post's own role in creating the alleged "rape of a civilization" story which gave such a black eye to the United States, a country which the Post, in theory at least, owes allegiance to
New York Times gets it wrong again - Earlier, the NYT had said the US Air Force planned to retire all A-10 Warthogs which were a big factor in US success in Gulf I and II, leaving the army without effective CAS - Now we learn US Air Force had planned to keep the aircraft flying till 2028, and has begun a program to extend airframe life to 16,000 hours: airframe was designed for 4,000 hours, then extended to 8,000; this combat aircraft will have been in service for more than half-century when it is phased out
Israel starts dismantling 15 settlements; four are inhabited, at least at one settlement settler says he has returned before and will return again, that he is stronger than the government
Debka says Egyptian intelligence chief visits Palestine to sort out squabbling Palestine factions and get counter-terror effort moving
French helicopters evacuate 535 foreigners from 38 countries including 100 Americans from Monrovia; Ghana sending warship to aid in evacuations; rebels said by BBC to have cut all exit routes and are nearing the center of the capital [Orbat.com comment: we are thankful foreigners are safe - but what about the Liberian people? - Saddam Hussein said to have executed 200-250,000 of his people - have President Taylor and his men murdered fewer?]
700 more French troops enroute to Bunia, NW Congo, arrive Uganda for transshipment; French Mirages start flying patrols over region
BBC reports Mauritania coup fails, President fails, press photos show several tanks destroyed in streets, apparently belong to a rebel unit
[At 0100 GMT, June 9] Mauritania rebels said by CNN to have seized Presidential Palace, president's whereabouts unknown; earlier reports had said loyalist elements had defeated a rebel coup attempt; coup possibly triggered by crackdown on Islamic militants and government's backing of US on Iraq; ABC-TV also says rebels defeated
3 Palestine militant groups combine to stage attack on Israeli Army, 4 soldiers, 3 militants die; in second attack one Israeli, two attackers killed; Israeli spokesman demands Abu Mazen arrest militants, does not explain how this is to be done with a security apparatus Israel has done its best to destroy; Abu Mazen says he will not trigger civil war by moving precipitously against militant groups; US Presidential advisor Rice says US will help Palestine rebuild security forces
On ABC-TV, Ms. Rice says reports that the US DIA doubted presence of WMD in Iraq are selective reporting; says DIA chief has clearly said he signed off on intel consensus that the weapons exist
US starts recruiting new Iraq army; 1200 enlisted N Iraq; in Baghdad ex-army personnel are being hired for various civil labor jobs
Rebels and loyalist Liberian troops continue fighting inside Monrovia, said 300 to 700,000 are refugees inside capital; rebels give President Taylor 72-hour ultimatum to quit; Taylor sources say coup attempt was at US behest
[At 0200 GMT, June 8] Rival militias battle each other in Bunia; French still in initial stages of arrival and unable to intervene
Palestine PM refuses talks with Hamas; said if Hamas does not cease fire, other militant groups will also not; said Palestine security forces lack strength to combat Hamas, particularly after Israeli campaign to attack Palestine state security organizations [Orbat.com comment: clearly Abu Mazen has a plan worked out with the US even though on the surface his position is weak, what this plan is, we don't know]
CENTCOM said meeting target of 4 million liters/day gasoline delivered Baghdad
CNN says loyalist Liberian forces beat back rebel advance into capital Monrovia
UK papers now say Chemical Ali may be alive; Orbat.com stopped counting but this would be the 4th or 5th time he has returned from the grave
After looting barrels previously containing low level nuclear material from Iraqi atomic research site and using barrels for household purposes, Iraqi villagers find their children getting sick; in interviews to ABC-TV villagers blame US for not protecting the plant and by implication not protecting them from their greed; ABC-TV presents story as another example of Iraqi anger at US
[At 0200 GMT, June 7] 100 French troops advance party arrives at Bunia, NE Congo, vanguard of 1000 French forces and 700 from other EU + South Africa; Operation Atremis to operate under "robust" rules of engagement, will be backed up with mechanized units and airpower; Entebbe, Uganda to be support base
Propane, used in Iraq as household fuel, falls to 6000 Dinars from 18,000 as US floods country with Turkish-origin supplies; distributes 4.5 million liters gasoline in Baghdad alone Thursday; nonetheless, Iraq oil production recovery looks to be even slower than lately apparent as looters continue to hit production/distribution facilities; Rumalia said still producing only 150,000 bbl/day
US DIA late 2002 summary saying no good evidence of Iraq WMD adds to uproar; in UK newspapers say Prime Minister's office intervened six times to strengthen language in intel reports
Rebels make gains in Monrovia Friday after being repulsed on Thursday, more refugees generated, said only 3 of 15 counties remain under President Taylor's control; it was to hold talks with rebels that he went to Accra, Ghana
Zimbabwe President Mugabe's security forces deter threatened opposition mass action protest in Harare; opposition leader now charged with treason
[At 0200 GMT, June 6] Stage set for confrontation in Falluja as 2nd Bde, 3rd MechDiv arrives and vows crackdown, simultaneously promises development/reconstruction; locals promise escalation in violence, US believes resistance is becoming organized; one theory we read is Falluja residents agreed not to oppose US forces entry believing they would be permitted to continue their primary business of smuggling as usual, became upset when US interdiction/patrols began to stop this [Orbat.com comment: so far US forces, in form of 3rd ACR, have been extraordinarily restrained - for US troops - in reacting to provocation; this unit has peacekeeping experience and its low key response may be an outcome of this; 3rd MechDiv, however, is arriving with a determination that attacks will be dealt with severely, we are told its orders are to break the resistance. We predict unless resistors in Falluja change they are in for difficult days.]
Rebel troops fight their way into Monrovia as tension keeps increasing after international arrest warrant for President Taylor
Pakistan refuses to take 21 bodies of men Afghanistan says are Pakistanis killed in fighting during the last week in Spin Boldak area; approximately 40 Taliban and 6 government troops killed; Pakistan denies the men are its citizens and says situation will only worsen if Afghan authorities do not bury the bodies
In Pakistan NW Frontier Province local government defiant as Federal Government attempts to reassert its control against local introduction of religious law; unless local government backs down the danger is growing of a major confrontation between center and state; Orbat.com hears nothing of what US plans in case situation worsens
Haartez of Israel says no political leaders joined settler demonstration against Prime Minister Sharon yesterday despite denunciations of his concessions at Aqaba
BBC says foreign diplomats confirm Suu Kyi was injured when government-backed demonstrators attacked her car; US State Department says incident was a planned ambush by government thugs, reports say 60 were killed; US demands access to the opposition leader and threatens to end reconciliation/mediation effort in Burma [Orbat.com details massive Myanmar Army expansion over last two years using information provided by rebel sources, available in Contemporary Orbats]
US will move 2nd InfDiv south of Seoul and relocate bases inside capital, both to reduce friction with locals and to reposition US I Corps as a counteroffensive force in event of North Korea invasion, rather than as a tripwire at present
US said to harden position on N Korea nuclear arms, saying American concessions can be given only after N Korea meets a wide range of demands, including verifiable shut down of nuclear weapons program, improvements in human rights position, and moves towards democracy [Orbat.com said some months ago US disinclined to compromise with N Korea to begin with; relocation of 2nd InfDiv south of the Han River serves many purposes, but one unsubtle point is to show N Korea US forces in S Korea will not be held hostage to a massive attack across DMZ]
At 0200 GMT, June 5] Chaos in Monrovia as UN-backed war crimes tribunal issues arrest warrant for President Charles Taylor; he is accused of involvement in the brutal Sierra Leone civil war; was on trip to Ghana; Accra refused to arrest him as Ghana government says he is important to stability of Liberia; residents fear paramilitary coup by President's supporters, start fleeing city [see BBC story link in Analysis]
President Musharraf of Pakistan sacks two top bureaucrats in NW Frontier Province because they failed to maintain law-and-order after local government declared Sharia law and roving squads began enforcing it; [Orbat.com comment - it is unclear how NWFP government believes it can create a Taliban-like state on Afghan border in face of US presence in Afghanistan and Washington's determination to destroy Islamic extermism] [see BBC story link in Analysis]
Powerful Herat warlord turns over $20 million taxes due Kabul government; Kabul pays 100,000 soldiers; Herat authorities earn that much money in a month from customs duties alone [see BBC story link in Analysis]
Israeli MOD starts planning for removal of 12-15 illegal settlements, violence feared; 20,000 settlers march against Sharon; Shin Bet says threats against Prime Minister have increased but right now he does not need additional security; ABC TV says 60% of Israelis support withdrawal from settlements, but 67% believe Sharon is making promises he wont keep
Palestine PM unequivocally rejects terror, acknowledges suffering of Jews in Holocaust; Hamas, Islamic Jihad immediately say they have not agreed to ceasefire
[At 0200 GMT, June 4] Haartez of Israel reports Prime Minister Sharon to order 10 illegal settlements shut, has agreed Palestinians should have contiguous state; Israel releases 100 prisoners, including one held 28 for murders
Admiral Thomas Fargo USN, Pacific commander, says US does not seek to reopen bases in SE Asia or to boost permanent presence, will instead work with local governments to help them boost anti-terror capability
Jakarta said preparing to crack down on Aceh secession supporters, particularly students and NGOs, threatens to invoke laws that carry death penalty; meanwhile, we get no good sense of how the fighting against the secessionists is proceeding; Government is to take up at least one human rights violation case against its soldiers
Jung of Pakistan in unattributed report, possibly by a news agency, says G8 rejects Bush doctrine of pre-emptive attacks and seizure of WMD or related materials any time any place; report sees outcome of G8 summit a compromise, but not full reconciliation
US Marines ensure 100 MW power to Najaf, more than twice pre war level, and 60 MW to Samawah, more than pre war; meanwhile, local Iraqis being hired to start restoration of Baghdad IAP; US lifts ban on its airlines flying to Iraq; US says demobilized soldiers will be given other jobs, but only 40-50,000 will serve in the new army.
Hema leader in Bunia, NE Congo says he will not disarm when French troops arrive, but is prepared to withdraw from city
Zimbabwe general strike shuts down capital, BBC says remains to be seen if anti-government forces can maintain pressure in face of the well organized security forces
[At 0300 GMT, June 3] Mideast peace process gathers momentum as President Bush says he is fully committed to a solution; as always, doubts abound about sincerity of Israelis and Palestinians, with analysts on each side saying the other has agreed to discuss peace only under US pressure and is not serious; others doubt if President Bush has the staying power to remain involved.
From many reports, Orbat.com believes subtle shift in US attitude on duration of Iraq occupation has taken place; Bush Administration seems to be prepared now to stay as many years as needed; in furtherance of this shift, US puts off formation of Iraqi government, UK fires Basra government which was found to be full of Saddam loyalists; Orbat.com hears US calculation is special interests in Iraq will demonstrate, denounce, and even attack US presence, but Washington feels the great majority of Iraqis want the US to stay till full democracy and stability are achieved - a larger scale reenactment of what is happening in Afghanistan.
Saudi media speak of gun battle in north between security forces and wanted accused in Riyadh bombings; BBC says Saudi government wants to let world know it is no longer easy on terror and is doing everything it can
Many agencies report Bush and Chirac speak soothing words; overall feeling is both sides will stick to their agendas but do not believe the quarrel over Iraq is worth breaking up their shared interests
Russia said telling Tehran that unless Iran signs supplemental safeguards, Russian nuclear aid will stop; Russians said to act under G8 pressure; Teheran says its NPT signature is assurance enough and refuses; Teheran says if US so concerned about nuclear program it can itself build the reactors Iran wants; US rejects concept [Orbat.com notes that, however, something similar was agreed on for North Korea]
[At 0200 GMT, June 2] Haartez of Israel reports Mr. Sharon will announce at Aqaba Summit he is ready to dismantle illegal settlements
Meanwhile, Jung of Pakistan reports Mr. Arafat as saying he expects Hamas to cease fire within a week
Further to Mid East peace process, said US Ambassador to Delhi, Robert Blackwill, may be nominated to oversee Road Map, also said US accepts Palestine request for time to persuade terror groups to cease, rather than impose immediate crackdown
Jung of Pakistan says Russia has come into full conformity with Nuclear Supply Group guidelines and this will affect the end runs Moscow has been making on getting nuclear/space technology to India despite Moscow's membership in the NSG
Debka says Saddam and Qusay in Libya, Uday in Minsk, waiting for chaos in Iraq so they can return
BBC reports that Saudi is dismissing hundreds of clerics in anti-terror effort
Mr. Tony Blair gets into deeper trouble on WMD as Mr. Cook and Ms. Short, ministers who resigned over Iraq, expand attack on him and as Conservatives debate an independent inquiry to see if Mr. Blair duped the British people or perhaps was duped himself
BBC and AFP report fresh massacres in NE Congo, figures are given between 100 and 250 dead including babies; France says troops may start arriving within a week
Times of India reports that Washington is about to start verifying Pakistan claims that terror camps have been shut down, and that with Iraq out of the way Washington has decided to get serious on question of Pakistan-based terror