News Archive July 2003
[At 1300 GMT, July 23] Correction: in our report at 0200 GMT we erred - Uday was the one with the shattered leg; also contrary to earlier reports, no A-10 was used; AH-64 also not used for concern of collateral damage
Incredibly - but this is illustrative of the "polite" style adopted by occupation forces - US vanguard asked house owner who was nearby for permission to search house; when he refused he was directed to stay at a nearby house before the attack began; one reason attack lasted as long as it did was house's 2nd floor was a reinforced and protected bunker; also said Saddam's sons had been in the area for some time
[At 0200 GMT, July 22] Acting on information received from an Iraqi, US SF troops backed by 200 soldiers from 101st AA Div attacked a compound in Mosul; after a 3-4 hour situation culminating in a "fierce" firefight 4 bodies were brought out; US used multiple sources to confirm Hussein sons were among the four
Aside from visual identifications by many sources, including Saddam's personal secretary - #4 on Card List and in US custody - US also used fingerprints; Qusay had shattered leg bones held by titanium pins - injuries caused by failed assassination attempt, this was also identified
Apparently no one else was in house, sources explain that initially US simply secured the house, trying to get those inside to surrender, when that failed US troops decided against calling air strikes because of fear of collateral damage - house is in a residential neighborhood - and instead destroyed it with A-10 attack jets - presumably using their 30mm anti-armor cannon- 12 missiles, said to be TOW and Javelin, fired from ground and air, plus air-to-ground rockets, grenade launchers and heavy machineguns; four US soldiers wounded but not life threatening
One body is of teenager, till further identification presumed to be 14 year old Mustafa, son of Qusay, and the other of a bodyguard
Speculation sons might have been in Mosul looking for a way out of Iraq
Presumably one Iraqi is somewhere in the Mideast today counting his $30 million, as both sons had bounty of $15 million each on their heads
Liberia rebels declare ceasefire which seems to be holding; US still waffling over intervention; Nigerian light mechanized battalion supposed to be first unit in is also delayed
[At 1300 GMT, July 21] President Bush says Iran, Syria are harboring terrorists and are blocking a Mideast settlement; quoted by CNN: "Today, Syria and Iran continue to harbor and assist terrorists. This behavior is completely unacceptable, and states that support terror will be held accountable."
Globalsecurity.com identifies USAF unit at PAF Jacobabad as 321st Air Expeditionary Group with 11th and 15th UAV Squadrons, and squadrons or detachments of F-16s, C-130, UH-60, CH-47, MH-53E
Two mortar rounds hits US Embassy Monrovia; loyalists push back rebels; 21 Marines, part of a 41-man Anti-Terrorist unit reinforces embassy and flies out 23 American civilians, no evacuation of Embassy as yet
[At 0000 GMT, July 20] Liberian rebel forces have opened a second front in their attempt to gain control over Monrovia and have shelled diplomatic areas in their advance; their leaders say they are trying to stop the rebels but have been unsuccessful
Recruiting centers for the new Iraq Army were swamped as the US began processing Iraqis for enlistment; the first battalion is due in service by late August; US says 40,000 ceiling is its decision and this can be changed by the Iraqis themselves when the latter take full power; US is in process of recruiting 6500 Iraqis as civil armed police to work with US patrols; a new Border Guards organization is also being made
Iran reportedly has issued the Shahab 3 missile to operational units of the Revolutionary Guards
US consulting UN in effort to see if UN cover for foreign troops in Iraq can be obtained
[At 0330 GMT, July 19] IRNA of Iran reports Teheran Government rejects reports it has enriched uranium, saying it cannot comment on unsubstantiated statements made by unidentified persons; Reuters broke the story yesterday; Teheran says head of IAEA says the story is not true
CNN says rebels closing in on center of government authority in Monrovia; UN envoy for Liberia says US will not send troops unless African peacekeeping force starts arriving
Washington Post says other important Shia clerics say Cleric Al-Sadi, who rejected US presence in Iraq and called for formation of an army to eject US troops, is not of significance [Orbat.com comment: There are hundreds, if not thousands, of clerics with some serious following in Iraq, and the standard Iraqi reaction to any American move he does not agree with is to call for a holy war. Many of these calls are attempts to get something out of the Americans, and how much backing a particular cleric has, or which factional ffight he is engaged in, is difficult to determine. Nonetheless, we reckon that getting a demonstration going on any subject is not particularly difficult in Iraq]
CNN reports US troops continue two massive raids in Baghdad, arrest 1200, the same number as detained in Operations Soda Mountain and Ivy Serpent
Orbat.com hears US is reducing its troop presence in Fallujah because it feels situation has improved; Fallujah has been one of the most contentious of Iraqi cities concerning the presence of US forces
Mediators from African nations arrive in Sao Tome to negotiate with coup leaders
Venezuela offers US opportunity to develop gas fields that could supply 10% of US LNG requirements; this despite the strained relations between Chavez Government and Washington
[At 0330 GMT, July 18] 46,000 of the 65,000 Marines deployed to Iraq have left even before the Polish Multi National Division has effectively assembled [Orbat.com comment: The failure of the US media to keep the public informed on this massive withdrawal - with the converse implication that the US has succeeded over a large swath of Iraq - raises very serious questions as to how the media reports news, and what responsibilities it has to its public and to its nation]
Soda Mountain concludes; aside from thousands of mortar rounds and RPGs, two stashes of C-4 explosive were seized; one stash alone is 2 tons, the other is 54 boxes - Orbat.com guesses about 1 ton
MSNBC reports evidence that Iran has enriched uranium
President Karzai warms Pakistan to stop cross-border attacks by extremists; meanwhile, BBC says 8 Afghan militia soldiers working with US forces in Khost area were killed by a remote-triggered explosive device; two men detained and handed over to US forces by locals
Liberian rebels resume advance on Monrovia
Sao Tome coup leaders willing to talk, says BBC, but say they will not allow old corrupt government back
In attempt to help Tony Blair at home, US agrees not to try two UK citizens held at Cuba base; their continued detention had raised a huge political storm in UK
Jung of Pakistan says US has been in talks with India over Delhi taking the lead to establish a new regional security alliance
IRNA of Iran says Turkey denies it has agreed with US to pull out its troops from Northern Iraq
[At 0330 GMT July 17] CENTCOM has been speaking of Operation Ivy Serpent, a pre-emptive strike based on information received against ex-regime elements planning attacks on US forces; today it mentioned Operation Soda Mountain which apparently is the operation under which Ivy Serpent is taking place; 1st ArmdDiv is identified as part of Soda Mountain; in Ivy Serpent, 50 key supporters of the ex-regime are in custody along with hundreds of others, most of whom - if previous pattern is followed - will probably be let go; large weapons caches have been seized as part of both operations, including a dozen shoulder-fired SAMs; US sources speak of Al Qaida look-alike and foreigners participating with ex-regime elements
Canada takes over ISAF in Kabul from Germany, 2nd CMBG provides the MNB Kabul HQ, 3rd Royal Canadian Regiment is the infantry core of the Canadian contingent; as 1800 Canadians arrive, Germans will reduce from 2600 to 1500
International condemnation of Sao Tome coup; US law requires Washington to cut off security assistance; reports yesterday did not make clear potential oil revenue has to be shared with Nigeria as the oil is in waters falling within both their EEZs
Outgoing senior Indian commander in Kashmir says Indian army has been more successful at intercepting militants crossing the border from Pakistan than in previous years [Orbat.com note: after 15 years of insurgency, in 2002 the Indian Government and Army finally started getting serious about stopping infiltration, and a series of long overdue measures such as fencing, sensors, and night vision equipment has started taking effect; nonetheless, Indian Army still has a long way to go in bringing its CI efforts into the 21st Century]
The first shooting exchange between North and South Korean troops along the DMZ since November 2001 was initiated yesterday by DPRK, just ahead of planned talks [Orbat.com comment: DPRK is yet to understand every one of its attempts to raise the heat on the US in an effort to get Washington to negotiate has had just the opposite effect, convincing Washington the current regime must be ousted]
[At 0300 GMT, July 16] The UK Telegraph says a military coup has taken place in Sao Tome, apparently the Army seeks control of potential oil revenue; this tiny country is now said to have perhaps 2-billion bbl of oil and over $250-million worth of exploration license fees alone are expected this year for a country of 170,000 people; US has security interest in country, has trained its army for past decade, rumors US seeks to build base here to protect W African oil [Orbat.com comment: if this is right, we can expect the coup will not make Washington happy]
ABC TV reports a third SAM attack against a US plane; new General Officer Commanding CENTCOM bluntly says he is in a war and will not hesitate to ask for more troops if needed; says reistance is organized with cells of 6-8 people;says 3rd MechDiv troops at Fallujah who spoke against US SecDefense for keeping them in Iraq despite repeated promises they will be sent home will be disciplined according to the decision of their CO; fatherly looking officer at Ft. Stewart where division is based said troops have a right to complain but must follow channels [Orbat.com comment: ABC TV which got the soldiers into trouble by showing their faces and naming them sought to make amends by talking to the soldiers' families, getting everyone into deeper trouble; ABC TV seems to forget this is not a draft army by a volunteer one]
US administrator Iraq says 90% of Iraqi schools are open and all universities; sources say power situation improving but restoring it to pre-war levels not good enough
US consultancy firm says $90 billion needed to rebuild Iraq: $35-$40 billion to increase oil output to 6-7 million bbl/day from present 1.5 million bbl/day; $10-$14 for power and telecom, power was 9.5 GW generation capacity pre-1990, now 1.8 GW; healthcare $10-20 billion to restore pre-1980 levels; education $6-12 billion; sum not estimated for transport infrastructure to rebuild/refurbish 40,000 km roads, 3 rail lines, 3 airports, two airports; says hard to overstate mess left by Saddam and sanctions
[ 0130 GMT, July 15] Reuters reports a 2000 person peacekeeping force from Australia, New Zealand, and Fiji is preparing to start arriving in the Solomon Islands next week at the invitation of the government which can no longer maintain order in the face of increasing anarchy. The force will also include small contingents from other Pacific nations and will consist of army troops, police, civil administrators, helicopters, and a hospital ship. It will operate in support of Solomon Islands security forces
US Iraq administrator says recruiting for new Iraq Army to begin next week at Mosul, Irbil, Baghdad, Basra; says average of 12 attacks a day on US troops; says infrastructure including power badly hit by 35 years of underfunding and will take time to rebuild; says cell phone service should be available soon
Iraq Council wants to try former regime members for war crimes; Amnesty International protests that fair trial cannot be held if victims are the ones to try accused
Times of India says one Catagory I accident [total write-off] takes place in the Indian Air Force every 17 days; only one 30-year old simulator trainer exists for the whole MiG-21 force which forms about half the total
Pakistan says the 60,000 bbl/day oil grant by Saudi Arabia extended after economic sanctions were imposed by the West subsequent to Pakistan's nuclear tests will continue. The grant is worth a sixth of Pakistan's total $3 billion annual POL imports
Jang of Pakistan reports that amid more firing on Afghan-Pakistan border, the US, Afghanistan, and Pakistan [represented by its Director General Military Operations] are to meet to resolve the issues
Iran reports finding new oil reserves of 38 billion bbl, but how much is recoverable is not known
[At 0300 GMT, July 14] The New York Times reports that the US SecDef, Mr. Rumsfeld, in a total reversal of his earlier stance, concedes that more US troops may be needed in Iraq, and that overall force levels may have to be increased to support a larger deployment - he did, however, say that he did not think any increases were needed at this time; he also said that the resistance to US forces is getting more organized
Reversing previous orders, Pentagon orders 10,000 troops from 3rd Mech Div to remain in Iraq indefinitely, previously they were all due back September; now 3rd Brigade will return as scheduled, 1st and 2nd to remain
Operation Ivy Serpent, conducted by 4th MechDiv and TF Iron Horse, detains 226 more suspects; no US or Iraq civil casualties yet
Jang of Pakistan says Pakistan hands over suspected Osama aid, Algerian Adil al-Jazeeri, to US; arrested last month, he is flown out of country; Pakistan has arrested 500 Al Qaida suspects
Germany suspends aid to Pakistan NWFP because of the province's increasingly fundamentalist laws which are hampering its NGO operations; NWFP tribal elders now bans anyone from letting women from NGOs enter homes to teach girls, say offenders' homes will be burned down
CNN says Irish man arrested by Israelis is not IRA bomber, sources say he works for a newspaper, Debka appears to say case of mistaken identity
Taylor of Liberia refuses to leave till US troops arrive; US refuses to send troops till Taylor leaves
[At 0300 GMT, July 14] US CENTCOM announced it had launched Operation Ivy Serpent Saturday; focused on Highway 1 between Bayji, Huwayiah and Samarra, is aimed at Saddam loyalists and is based on information attackes were being planned [Orbat.com note: The 4th Div is nicknamed the Ivy Division; this is the fourth major anti-loyalists operation; previous ones were Peninsula Strike, Desert Scorpion and Sidewinder]
Orbat.com's report yesterday that the new Iraq government had one woman was wrong: there are 3 women among the 25 members
I MEF may not be heading home: Orbat.com hears rumors that despite their public position saying no more troops are needed for Iraq, commanders have asked for reinforcements because of trouble in the area bounded by Falluja, Ramadi, and Samarra; activation of Polish MND September 1 was expected to release substantial part of I MEF to return; if these rumors are correct I MEF may send major reinforcements to the North
Times of India says India disinclined to send troops to Iraq except under UN flag, but a top security committee charged with formulating policy will not say 'no outright, but will recommend stalling for time
BBC reports Israeli police capture Real IRA member they have been hunting for some time; allegedly he is a bomb maker and is being questioned; BBC says ties between Palestine resistance and IRA go back decades [Orbat.com: The IRA and its supporters have frequently denounced what they say is the harsh handling of IRA prisoners; we'd be interested to know what the IRA man has to say about British interrogation techniques once he has been through Israeli hands]
[At 0330 GMT, July 13] The New York Times reports that a 25 person Iraqi government will meet today without US officials and emerge to announce they have formed a new government. Of the 25, more than half are exiles or Kurds; the ethnic breakdown is 13 Shias, 5 Kurds, 5 Sunnis, 1 Christian, 1 Turkoman; the government includes one woman
Jang of Pakistan says Interior Ministry to establish a new forward operation base at Peshawar with 5 helicopters with US funding; mission is anti-narcotics and border surveillance; money also includes funds for new border checkposts to reduce illegal crossings, roads to bring law-enforcement to remote tribal area, communications; Interior Ministry Air Wing has 3 fixed-wing aircraft and 5 helicopters at Quetta
Indonesian police arrest 7 from Jemmah Islamia, the group said to have bombed Bali nightclub, seize 2 M-16s, 22,000 rounds of ammunition, and raw material for explosives; police deny one arrested is Hambali, a senior JI leader and contact with Al Qaida, who is wanted throughout Asia; this brings Bali nightclub case arrests to almost 40
CNN says new center-left Belgium government revokes war crimes law; now only plaintiffs with direct Belgian connection can file; international diplomatic immunity is to be respected
President Khatami of Iran offers to resign among growing criticism by liberals - previously his constituents - that he did not do enough to prevent hardliners from attacking June anti-conservative demonstrators; the President is halfway through a second 4 year term and cannot stand again
Israel threatens to deport Arafat if he interferes in peace process
Indian Air Force sending 240-man detachment with 4 gunships and 5 transport helicopters to Bunia and Goma, DRC
Meanwhile, French troops kill 3 militia in Bunia when militia fired shots during search for banned weapons; rebel leaders in Bunia refuses French request to reduce his armed bodyguards from 30 to 5 - France has put restrictions on number of armed personnel in Bunia
[At 0500 GMT, July 12] India says it would prefer to send troops to Iraq under the UN flag, but is still considering other possible command arrangements; says it would like its own sector such as N Iraq and a robust force with air support is needed
Meanwhile, Germany, apparently paralleling a French stand, have responded to US suggestions NATO send troops to Iraq by saying the request would have to come from an accepted Iraqi government for it even to be considered
US steps up arrests in Iraq, detains 213 in one day alone without fanfare of major operation; in at least one case Baghdad locals led US troops to an IED in a market; 99 Iraqis arrested for criminal offenses
US Commander JTF Horn says he has asked for fighter aircraft, possibly 4-6, to be based alongside French aircraft at Djibouti; says beefing up forces is needed because of increased flow of terrorists and concern over the missing B-737; CNN says US has between 1300-1600 troops in country
[At 2030 GMT, July 11]
AP reports US troops have withdrawn from Fallujah police station after requests by Iraqi policemen who fear becoming targets; police station has been attacked many times [Orbat.com earlier quoted Debka which said US troops had withdrawn from Fallujah because of repeated attacks][At 1330 GMT, July 11] Debka says without elaboration that US troops have withdrawn from Fallujah, W Iraq, because of repeated attacks [Orbat.com comment: we have no way of confirming this news, but readers are asked to keep in mind that US 3rd MechDiv is sending one brigade back to the US and preparing to leave entirely by September; since one brigade of the division is covering Fallujah and other Western Iraq towns with the 3rd ACR, it's possible some reorganization is underway]
General Franks says in Congressional testimony 150,000 US troops will have to stay in Iraq for 4 years; legislators criticize living conditions of US troops; Army says it is working to change those
[At 0400 GMT, July 11] US National Public Radio says General Tommy Franks says US force will need to stay in Iraq for 4 years
Washington Post report plays down reports of fighting in Teheran between students, revolutionary militia, police, says situation was relatively calm
Times of India reports India and Pakistan continue to restore ties and agreements cut during 2002 crises
June oil production in Iraq averaged 480,000 bb/day; 2.5 million bbl/day produced pre-war; OPEC likely to leave quotas unchanged as expected surge of Iraqi export oil has not materialized; OPEC "band" is $22-28 bbl at this time and composite barrel of various OPEC crudes is selling in $27 range
UK says US released all expect 23 of 4,000 prisoners captured by UK in its sector during Iraq War; one is POW, others are suspected of crimes and may include foreigners
[At 0500 GMT July 10] Debka says despite Government attempts to prevent students from demonstrating on the anniversary of the 1999 government-student clashes, the revolutionary militia clashed with university students, and the Teheran police, under orders to keep the militia away from the university, fought with the militia
Jang of Pakistan says Iran refuses to accept tighter IAEA controls, but has agreed to keep talking
Pakistan and Afghan forces again fight on the border in Mohmand Agency; this situation is so complex and impartial information so difficult to come by that Orbat.com feels unable to intelligently analyze or comment
Operation Haven Denial ends in Patkia Province, Afghanistan; 800 US troops and 500 Italian paratroopers searched for Taliban elements for 4 days
US CENTCOM reports 2047 patrols, plus 377 joint patrols with Iraqi police; Iraqi police down to 11 patrols on their own
CNN reports that US NSA declassifies intercepts made while Israelis attacked USS Liberty in 1967; one set of people say tapes prove Israelis thought the ship was Egyptian and the attack was a tragic mistake; other set says tapes prove it was deliberate [Orbat.com comment: we are surprised the US permitted these tapes to be declassified; we'd have assumed they would have at least a 50-year classification; of course, we don't know how much of the tapes have actually been released and what has been edited ou
[At 1330 GMT July 9] US contractor Brown and Root will build Iraq housing for 100,000 troops, though some of of itmay be as basic as tents [Orbat.com comment: readers can understand why the Pentagon loves a professional army: the failure to provide basic of services - housing, mail, showers etc. for US troops in Iraq has reached scandal proportions, but except for some grumbling to the press, the force is keeping quiet ]
3rd MechDiv told it will be home by end August, one brigade prepares to leave [thanks to reader Joe Stefula for news article]
[At 0330 GMT July 9] Jung of Pakistan reports a Kabul mob of 500 that began as a demonstration of 3,000 sacked Pakistan's embassy; no embassy personnel were hurt; Pakistan's verbal attacks on President Karzai have escalated of late, conversely, Afghans allege Pakistan Army has been firing on Afghan outposts and entering Afghan territory; Karzai said apologies via telephone to President Musharraf
In Iraq, in pattern now becoming familiar, resistants attack Iraqi police working with US
BBC says Solomon Islands parliament to debate on Wednesday if to accept Australia/New Zealand 2,000 strong peace force; ethnic violence again flaring despite peace accords of three years ago
HQ UK 3rd MechDiv and 19th MechBde replacing 1st ArmdDiv and 7th ArmdBde in Iraq; 16th AABde has also left [thanks to David Newton for update]; new details here Saturday on Polish Multi National Division Iraq
[At 0130 GMT, July 8] Haartez of Israel says total 7-8 Shahab 3 tests have taken place, previously tests with Iranian engines as opposed to North Korean engines have failed; this test was successful; range may be greater than 1300-km, in any case Israel is now with reach; one-ton payload, 3,000-meter CEP; Iran plans Shahab 4 with 2,000-km range and Shahab 5 with 5,500-km range [Orbat.com comment: Iran perhaps wanted to send a message to the US and to reassure its people with this launch, but the US will now be even more determined to bring Iran's missile and nuclear programs under control]
The Times of India says the Indian Air Force has suffered 305 accidents where the aircraft is totally written off since 1990-91, and has lost 145 pilots; though MiG-21 is the largest number because half IAF's combat squadrons fly it, the MiG-23 - 4 squadrons remaining - has the highest per 10,000 flying hour loss rate; obsolete aircraft, non-availability of an advanced jet trainer, lack of simulators, inadequate maintenance, shoddy spares, and the unforgiving nature of the MiG-21 contribute to this loss; actual rates are not given
IRNA reports Japan backs out of massive oil investment in Iran, about $3 billion, under US pressure
Debka says President Assad removes Baath from control of government and withdraws most troops from Lebanon, both to appease Washington and to institute far-reaching reforms in Syrian governance after Iraq war; but Damascus continues to do everything possible to oppose US in Iraq [Orbat.com note: no other main line source has reported the end of Baath control of Syria]
HQ UK 3rd MechDiv and 19th MechBde replacing 1st ArmdDiv and 7th ArmdBde in Iraq; 16th AABde has also left [thanks to David Newton for update]
[At 0130 GMT July 7] Militias loyal to the North Afghan warlords Dostum and Atta have once again clashed in Mazar-i-Sharif, 11 dead; West again refusing to expand security for Afghanistan, instead 8 civil-military provincial teams being set up for development; one 50-man UK team is slated for Mazar [Orbat.com comment: presumably the West's strategy in Afghanistan is to bore the warlords into submission with talk, because that is all the UK team is going to be able to do]
Taylor of Liberia accepts exile in Nigeria, but sets no date
All Turkish soldiers captured in Sulaymaniyah released, no explanation on how/why they were arrested, nor why Turkey, after refusing the US any assistance in Gulf Two is being allowed to station troops in North Iraq
Pakistan police arrest 17 for Quetta mosque blast; Pakistan Prime Minister suspects Indian hand, says India's opening of 3 consulates in Afghanistan needs examination [Orbat.com comment: Indian intelligence is certainly very active in Pakistan, and Pakistan intelligence is involved in covert action all over India; nonetheless, we believe promoting suicide attacks is beyond the capability of Indian intelligence]
Pakistan opposition parties say they will allow neither recognition of Israel nor dispatch of Pakistani troops to Iraq; meanwhile, Jang reports 7 Pakistani businessmen visited Israel in June
[0330 GMT, July 6] Agencies say US releases some captured soldiers; earlier agencies report US troops captured 11 SF Turkish troops - 3 officers and 8 enlisted - and 6 civilians at Sulaymaniyah in Kurdish Iraq on suspicion of planning attack on regional governor; prisoners taken to Kirkuk for interrogation, Turks reported as furious and have demanded from US Secretary State men be released
CENTCOM reports 7 Iraq policemen killed in remotely triggered explosive device attack at Ramadi west of Baghdad
Pakistan Army takes over Quetta following suicide attack on Shia mosque; Jang of Pakistan reports toll now 53 dead
Nigerian President flying to Monrovia to speak with President Taylor on latter's stepping down; analysts warn that rival militias are as unsavory as Taylor's faction and his stepping down, though important, will not in itself bring peace
[At 1330 July 5]BBC reports US troops captured 11 SF Turkish troops and 6 civilians at Sulaymaniyah in Kurdish Iraq on suspicion of planning attack on regional governor; prisoners taken to Kirkuk for interrogation, Turks reported as furious and have demanded from US Secretary State men be released
BBC reports 4 Iraq policemen killed in grenade attack at Ramadi west of Baghdad; Debka says 8 of 80 policemen killed as they marched in street
Orbat.com comment: since each time an Iraqi is killed by US forces in this region the locals tell the Washington Post that they must take revenge because it is "our way", will the families of the dead Iraqis now seek revenge from the resistors? We await the Post's analysis. Meanwhile, we remind readers that the area W of Baghdad to the Syrian border has seen very little policing even in Saddam's time and has thrived on smuggling from Syria. The US is not just policing major western towns, it is interdicting cross border traffic and hunting in the desert for smugglers, Saddam loyalists, and Arab infiltrators; so in any case the Americans would not be greeted with open arms in this freewheeling, lawless area. Further, there are an estimated 2 million nomads who roam as they please in the region, including Syria and Saudi Arabia. We hear nothing of what equation the US is building with them, but as Debka recently underlined, unless brought into alliance these nomads could cause problems for the US occupation in the area.
[AT 0300 GMT, July 5] A CENTCOM press releases show the Iraqi Police still lack the means to police their country; [1] a man attempting to place an explosive device near a center for humanitarian assistance at Ba’qubah blew himself up, locals chased away police when they came to investigate [2] CENTCOM reports for July 4: 2270 patrols, plus 335 joint patrols with Iraqi forces, but on their own Iraqi forces conducted only 20 patrols
3/7 Cav kills 11 attackers when latter ambushed patrol, no US casualties
In Fallujah 4th US Army visit to fix up clinic finally brings local admission that in this respect they are better off than before
Japan sends150 air force personnel and 4 cargo aircraft to Jordan to aid in Iraq humanitarian relief; preparing legislation to send 1,000 non-combat troops in the fall
Kabul government launches new drive to clear 200 Taliban from Zabul area in Kandahar Province; ISAF sources say attacks doubled between April and May and are still high; UK apparently to dispatch more troops for ISAF
Taylor now says he will depart office once peacekeepers are deployed; West Africans approve 3,000 peacekeepers; analysts warn arrival of the force will not end Liberia's troubles because the many factions will still fight for power
[At 1730 GMT July 4] Teheran Times reports that Iran offers to buy 6,000-MW additional nuclear power stations from Russia [Orbat.com comment: this is a clear attempt to get Russia to ease up on demands for additional safeguards, demands which in any case the Russians are joining most reluctantly under pressure from US, EU]
Teheran Times reports that Iran not concerned by Japanese pressure for greater nuclear transparency, Tokyo has been linking nuclear issue with oil investment
Washington Post says Iraq has nominal 7.8 GW power generation capacity, but against demand of 6 GW prewar output was only 4.5 GW due infrastructure neglect during Saddam's reign and post-1991 sanctions; by early June 3.1 GW had been restored, with 1.3 GW sent to Baghdad, half its demand; now due sabotage and missed annual maintenance normally done in spring, Baghdad was down to 0.4 GW Monday, Tuesday even less, Wednesday back to 0.8 GW due hasty repairs; locals say America can fix problem if it wants, Americans say they can only do so much particularly with continued attacks on distribution facilities
While Washington Post naturally focuses on what's going wrong with US occupation, other reports say North and South Iraq, which were starved of power by Saddam to punish Kurd and Shia people, have better power and utilities now than before war
250 Polish troops depart for Kuwait, advance party for 2300 strong contingent; for details on Polish Multi National Division please see URLs above
US continues debating Liberia options; now said Nigeria does have extradition for wanted war criminals, Taylor says he will not go into exile there
[At 0230 GMT, July 3] US Army digs in for long haul in Iraq: by year end 1st CavDiv will replace 4th MechDiv, 25th LtInfDiv will replace 101st AADiv
4-6 National Guard brigades, mostly light, to deploy to Iraq, possibly to make up for withdrawal of 3rd MechDiv, but also possibly to increase "boots on the ground"
3rd Bde, 2nd InfDiv earmarked for Korea prepares for Iraq deployment; this is the first Stryker brigade; brigade has just returned from certification deployment to Ft. Polk, LA and has practiced loading/unloading of its vehicles with US Navy; Ft. Lewis, home of the brigade, warns of several artillery firing days in July, but says this is for ROTC units on summer camp
Meanwhile, 1-30 Inf of 3rd Bde, 3rd MechDiv prepares to return, 1-39 Arty from the division has returned
Also meanwhile, I MEF has reduced to 65,000 troops from 85,000, mainly due return of 2nd MEB and several aviation groups; no word on redeployment, but activation of one multinational division in its sector by September should permit the MEF to send some troops home
UK also rotating troops, latest move is Kings Own Scottish Borderers replace 1st Para
UK, like US, considering reinforcing Iraq; some American military sources say more troops are really not needed
Paul Bremer, Iraq administrator, asks for reinforcements - but only in the form of 2-300 man special counter-intelligence unit
President Bush preparing for Liberia deployment of approximately 500 US troops who will provide HQ, signal, transport, aviation facilities for the 5,000 mainly West African peacekeepers expected; exile for Taylor in Nigeria suggested, as Lagos has no extradition agreements to honor
India still waffles on deployment of 20,000 troops to Iraq: wants to send, but remains caught up in legalities and fear of "approving" US invasion which India officially opposed.
Pakistan agrees to send troops to Iraq
Said US military now deployed in 136 countries
Orbat.com comment: if this is not World War 3, we don't know what is, even if it does not look like the war that General Sir John Hackett foresaw in his book "The Third World War". We believe its time to call a shovel a shovel, and to ask the American people to do their duty, instead of pussy-footing around the issue as US Government has been doing for fear of offending the Islamic world and of asking too much of its people. The American people are not afraid of sacrifice: but they need leaders who will be straight with them.
At 0230 GMT, July 2 Debka says Saddam sought refuge in Syria but was asked to leave as Damascus feared US retaliation; after many travels he is back in Iraq in a defined area known to the US
Also says June 18 clash took place inside Syria; US has given its forces permission to enter Syria to interdict Iraqi officials going back and forth, despite removing many of these officials, many more remain
US says internal blast caused 10 dead in out-building of mosque at Fallujah, locals say US fired rocket
Jang of Pakistan says Abdullah Mahmoud al-Khattab, who was leader of Saddam's Bani al-Nasiri tribe, was killed on Sunday; had renounced Saddam, but had many enemies due to local issues
US stops aid to 50 countries that have as yet not exempted US troops from arrest/trial before ICC for acts committed on their soil; includes Colombia and several aspiring NATO countries, later are bound by by EU law recognizing the court; Europeans decry American high-handedness, Washington absolutely determined those countries who do not agree to US demands will pay a price
UK-led multinational division for S Iraq effectively in business with 11,000 British troops and 5,000 others on way between now and September; Danes and Czechs have begun operations
Iran invites IAEA head back to work out "technical" problems; BBC says some say this could be the breakthrough needed on the issue but much work needs to be done [Orbat.com comment: Clearly Iran is feeling the pressure on its nuclear program from the US/EU, but like the BBC, we wonder if Iran will so easily give in to the demand for extra safeguards]
[At 0230 GMT, July 1 ] US has arrested the mayor of Najaf for kidnapping and corruption, also detained 62 of his supporters; he was apparently a Sunni and appointed by the Americans
Shia cleric Sistani says elections have to be held before Administrator Bremer can draft constitution
Debka also says Israel to release 1,200 Palestine prisoners over age 50, many jailed for decades for murdering Israelis, ahead of Sharon's meeting with Abu Mazan, Palestine Prime Minister; Israel preparing to withdraw from further territories
UK Telegraph says President Musharraf raises storm in Pakistan with Islamic parties by urging Pakistanis to rationally debate and assess the issue of recognizing Israel; says Musharraf is worried about growing Indo-Israel ties
UN fails to decide on sending peacekeeping force to Liberia; US still refusing to take lead