February 28, 2003

U.S. Told Pakistan To Stop Infiltration
Iraq: US Buildup
US May Deploy Superbomb
U.S. Gulf Commander Fine-Tunes War Plan February 27
Rumsfeld, Reyes to Meet on Philippines' Abu Sayyaf Threat February 27
Karzai Seeks Funds for Provincial Irregulars February 27
Half Measures or Paradigm Shift? February 27
Summary Analysis of the National Guard Mobilization February 26
Senior Iraq Defector May Not Have Made It - Part II February 26
Moscow Offers Plan to Prevent War and Rescue Saddam February 26
Editorial: A Modest Proposal on Iraq February 25
Washington's Growing Backyard War February 25
US plans total war against Kim February 24

US Told Pakistan To Stop Infiltration

By Khalid Hasan, writing in Pakistan's Daily Time

WASHINGTON: During the three-week visit of the Pakistan foreign minister here, US administration officials “down the line” minced no words as to how they felt about what they saw as Pakistan’s lack of commitment to ending cross-border activity in held Kashmir, its tolerance of home-grown terrorist groups and its links with North Korea.

This correspondent has gathered from reliable and informed sources that the unprecedented access provided to Khurshid Mahmood Kasuri by the Bush administration, including a “drop-by” visit by the president as the minister sat with the national security adviser Condoleezza Rice, was designed to pass a message to Pakistan that its verbal commitments needed to be translated into actual performance.

There were three points that were brought home to the foreign minister in meeting after meeting. First, Pakistan must stop, once for all, all cross-border military and material support to the Kashmir insurgency. The minister was told that Indian patience with Pakistan was wearing thin and while Washington had continued to restrain India, it could not do so indefinitely if the present Pakistani policy continued. He was also told that the repeated assurances extended by President Pervez Musharraf on this issue were viewed with a good deal of skepticism in Washington because of the gap between what was promised and what was delivered.

Secondly, it was made clear that the Pakistan government’s continuing “tolerance” for militant or jihadi outfits in the country was unacceptable. It was pointed out that militant organisations that the government had earlier banned had reappeared under different names and were operating openly and with impunity. It was emphasised that it was because of this Pakistani ambivalence towards terrorism that the country was now considered a base, if not the hub, for international terrorism. It was stressed that the US administration was finding it exceedingly difficult to remain reconciled to the situation. The third thing that was repeatedly stressed to the minister was Pakistan’s links with North Korea. It was pointed out that Congress was getting extremely uneasy with reports that the two countries had collaborated in the nuclear field and this collaboration had not been terminated. There were some on Capitol Hill who wanted hearings to be held on the issue. The administration had used its influence in favour of Pakistan, conveying to the legislators President Musharraf’s solemn assurances that there were no links as alleged. The US had taken the position publicly that it did not wish to dig up the past but would not look kindly on the continuation of exchanges between the two countries. However, disturbing reports had continued to filter in. The Pakistani envoy was told that this was “absolutely unacceptable”.

Not much notice was taken of the foreign minister’s “Five plus Three formula”. The minister told a number of senior US officials that Pakistan, India and Israel should be admitted as member of the five-member “nuclear club” which he argued would be a positive step towards the establishment of a stable world security order.

Return To Top February 28, 2003

Iraq: US Buildup

- Agreement with Turkey has still not been reached – the parliamentary voted to give approval will now be on Saturday. - Iraq is redeploying Republic Guard troops from Tikrit to Baghdad. - For latest deployment details, check US Forces for Iraq Theatre - The US says satellite imagery shows Iraq is digging trenches next to civilian installations. - The Jang of Pakistan, quoting US sources, says: About 225,000 US forces are now massed against Iraq, including 111,000 in Kuwait, the main staging area for a possible US ground offensive, a US defense officials said on Thursday. The number of US forces in the Gulf region and the eastern Mediterranean are about 15,000 higher than a week ago, the official said.

The arrival of aircraft carrier USS Kitty Hawk and its battle group in the Gulf region boosted the numbers of sailors and marines aboard warships to 46,000, the official said. The figures also include 14,000 in Afghanistan and surrounding countries. US forces in Saudi Arabia rose to about 7,000 over the past week, the official said. US troops in Kuwait went from 98,000 last week to 111,000.

Return To Top February 28, 2003

US Superbomb May Be Deployed

Source Military.com

When and if the United States does go to war, military sources say the United States is preparing a monster new weapon to be used during the first nights.

It's called MOAB, short for "massive ordnance air burst" bomb. It is a modern, bigger version of the 15,000-pound "Daisy Cutter" used in Vietnam, the Persian Gulf War and Afghanistan.

Sources say MOAB -- still experimental -- is a 21,000-pound bomb that will be pushed out the back of a C-130 transport and guided by satellite. Because it is not dropped by parachute, as was the old Daisy Cutter, the aircraft can let it go from far higher altitudes, making it safer for U.S. pilots.

The MOAB's massive explosive punch, sources say, is similar to a small nuclear weapon. It is intended to obliterate a command center hidden in tunnels and bunkers or a concentration of Iraqi tanks.

Whatever the target, it must be far from cities where civilians might be hurt. But one important aspect of using this type of weapon, sources say, will be psychological impact on enemy troops. It is intended to terrorize Iraqi troops, drastically reducing their desire to continue the fight.

Return To Top February 28, 2003

February 27, 2003

U.S. Gulf Commander Fine-Tunes War Plan
Rumsfeld, Reyes to Meet on Philippines' Abu Sayyaf Threat
Karzai Seeks Funds for Provincial Irregulars
Half Measures or Paradigm Shift?
Summary Analysis of the National Guard Mobilization February 26
Senior Iraq Defector May Not Have Made It - Part II February 26
Moscow Offers Plan to Prevent War and Rescue Saddam February 26
Editorial: A Modest Proposal on Iraq February 25
Washington's Growing Backyard War February 25
US plans total war against Kim February 24
Coup in Pakistan - Misperceptions and Reality: Letter from Major Amin February 22
Coup in Pakistan?India Seeks to Exploit US Distraction February 20
Pakistan's Geopolitical Future February 20


February 27, 2003

U.S. Gulf Commander Fine-Tunes War Plan

From Associated Press By ROBERT BURNS

CAMP AS SAYLIYAH, Qatar (AP) -- The American general who would lead an Iraq invasion fine-tuned the battle plan Wednesday with his senior commanders.

The operation would be executed from a command post shielded by a chain-link fence hidden inside a warehouse on this remote desert base.

Army Gen. Tommy R. Franks met for several hours with the commanders of his naval, air, land and special operations forces, who normally report to him from their war-fighting posts in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

Franks made no public appearance, but he indicated before the conference that he intended to review with his commanders their progress in preparing for the possibility that President Bush will order war to disarm Iraq.

If war comes, Franks would command the operation from Camp As Sayliyah, a 262-acre compound outside Doha, the Qatari capital, although he has the technological capability to direct it from either his permanent Central Command headquarters in Tampa, Fla., or a new airborne command post.

Although Franks' appearance at Camp As Sayliyah raised speculation in the Gulf that an Iraq war was imminent, aides said he intended to return to the United States this weekend for further consultations with Bush and others.

About 200,000 U.S. troops have gathered on Iraq's periphery, and more are en route from the United States and Europe. Britain is contributing 45,000 troops.

The bulk of the U.S. and British ground forces would invade from Kuwait, although the United States is hoping to complete a deal with Turkey that would permit 40,000 or more U.S. troops to open a northern front.

U.S. Air Force fighters would attack mainly from bases in Kuwait, Qatar and Turkey. Bombers would fly from Oman and the island of Diego Garcia. Support planes would operate from Saudi Arabia and several other countries.

The Navy has five aircraft carriers within range of Iraq - each with about 50 strike aircraft aboard. The Marines would operate as part of the Kuwait-based ground force as well as the air effort.

Franks also held talks Wednesday with British Defense Minister Geoff Hoon, who said afterward that Saddam still has time to avert war, although "it's certainly getting to a late hour in the day."

Hoon told a news conference the British government is confident the U.N. Security Council will pass a resolution authorizing war against Iraq and he predicted anti-war sentiment around the world would subside in the days ahead.

Hoon also echoed Franks' comments, in an Associated Press interview Tuesday, that U.S. and allied military commanders cannot guarantee the safety of civilians who would position themselves near potential bombing targets.

"It is not the case that we would necessarily take account of human shields, so called," Hoon told reporters at a cavernous international press center.

"I would want to emphasize to you the need for anyone contemplating such a course of action to return home rather than play into the hands of Saddam Hussein," he said.

Franks has declined to say publicly which command post he would use to run an Iraq war, although it was clear from a tour of the Joint Operations Center here that Camp As Sayliyah would be the primary nerve center.

The highly restricted operations center, run by about 50 military personnel, uses advanced computer and communications technology to coordinate movements and planning among the Army, Navy, Air Force and Marine Corps.

"I use computers to break down barriers" between services and functional commands, said Air Force Col. Steven Pennington, a senior manager of the operations center.

He and others said they have no doubt that U.S. forces are ready if Bush orders war.

"We're focused on being prepared for that," said Marine Corps Col. Tom Bright, director of the Joint Operations Center.

Return To Top February 27, 2003

Rumsfeld, Reyes to Meet on Philippines' Abu Sayyaf Threat

American Forces Press Service

WASHINGTON, Feb. 26, 2003 -- Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and Philippine Defense Secretary Angelo Reyes will meet at the Pentagon Feb. 28 to hammer out details of U.S. participation in operations against the Abu Sayyaf terror group.

Current plans call for U.S. troops to support Philippine forces in operations in the Sulu Archipelago, said Pentagon spokesman Lt. Cmdr. Jeff Davis. About 350 U.S. Army, Navy and Air Force special operations personnel will work with Philippine soldiers. Another 750 Americans will provide logistics support from the headquarters in Zamboanga on Mindanao Island.

The Philippine government has asked the United States to follow up on last year's successful deployment to Basilan Island. U.S. troops supported Philippine soldiers in driving Abu Sayyaf from the island.

"We have agreed to that request and will deploy forces," Davis said. "The armed forces of the Philippines will lead the operation and U.S. forces will assist them."

The United States and the Philippines are treaty allies. U.S. service members will participate in a number of exercises and training missions all over the island nation. The two nations stand united against terrorism, said White House spokesman Ari Fleischer. He said Abu Sayyaf intends "to wreak havoc on the people of the Philippines."

Return To Top February 27, 2003

Karzai Seeks Funds for Provincial Irregulars

From Reuters

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Afghan President Hamid Karzai asked U.S. senators on Wednesday to support a request that the United States subsidize his budget so that he can pay 100,000 irregular militiamen living in the provinces.

Karzai disputed the widespread impression that the 100,000 armed men are beyond the influence of his government, which only has full control in the capital Kabul because an international security forces provides security there.

He also turned down offers from senators that they lobby for an expansion of the international force, known as ISAF, saying he would prefer to expand the new national Afghan army, which now has about 3,000 trained troops.

Karzai, giving testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, painted a rosy picture of the state of Afghanistan one year after the United States overthrew the Taliban rulers and brought in Karzai's pro-American government.

But diplomats and other observers say the country is far from stable and a strong Afghan army capable of replacing the regional warlords who now impose law and order in the provinces is still a distant dream.

The irregular militiamen are mainly loyal to the provincial warlords, who have some autonomy from the Kabul government.

Karzai proposed improving security by building up the army and disbanding the irregular forces though the DDR (disarmament, demobilization and reintegration) program. In the meantime, paying the irregulars would help, he said.

WELL-BEHAVED MILITIAS "We are going to ask the U.S. government to provide us support for those 100,000 troops while we are working on the DDR ... so that in the meantime those soldiers are not left without payment or without salaries so that they remain well-behaved," the Afghan president said.

Foreign donors could also help by paying the salaries of the 3,000 soldiers in the existing Afghan army, which cannot come out of the usual aid funds, he added.

The Afghan government has little revenue of its own because it cannot collect tax revenues from the provinces, he said.

In the early months of the new government, the size of the ISAF force was a bone of contention between the Bush administration, which did not want a large force, and those who argued that the United States should do everything it could to stabilize the troubled country.

Karzai said Afghans had given up asking ISAF to expand outside its Kabul enclave because the international community was not responsive to their initial entreaties.

"If there is a need to expand ISAF to the provinces, the Afghan government would not be against it, we would welcome it. However, we would prefer speeding up of the training of the national Afghan army," he said.

Karzai, who will see President Bush at the White House on Wednesday, avoided questions on a possible U.S. invasion of Iraq but said he hoped the Iraqi crisis would not distract attention from the needs of his own country.

[Orbat.com note: Decision-makers, and those with access to decision-makers should support Hamid Karzai’s request. Keeping the militias on a steady payroll from Kabul rather than ambitious and opportunistic local warlords is more important to Afghanistan’s stability than building schools or providing agricultural assistance. Though without a doubt establishing clinics, building roads and digging wells in eastern Afghanistan will consolidate such stability in the medium term, especially if credit for such activity is always given to Kabul.]

Return To Top February 27, 2003

Half Measures or Paradigm Shift?

From the Brookings Institute

Pakistan faces multiple challenges at home and abroad. There are indications that General Pervez Musharraf understands the risks. But is he prepared to bring his tactical moves in sync with his strategic perception? The answer to that question is likely to decide the future of Pakistan. At the moment, that answer is vague, writes Ejaz Haider.

Return To Top February 27, 2003

February 26, 2003

Summary Analysis of the National Guard Mobilization
Senior Iraq Defector May Not Have Made It - Part II
Moscow Offers Plan to Prevent War and Rescue Saddam
Editorial: A Modest Proposal on Iraq February 25
Washington's Growing Backyard War February 25
US plans total war against Kim February 24
Iraq Hints at Destroying Al-Samoud 2 Missiles February 24
Terrorism a pretext to conquer world, says Malaysia's Mahathir February 24
US, Philippines Offer Different Versions of Bolstered US Troop Presence February 23
US offers India $2.5bn, oil to support war against Iraq February 23
Coup in Pakistan - Misperceptions and Reality: Letter from Major Amin February 22
Coup in Pakistan?India Seeks to Exploit US Distraction February 20
Pakistan's Geopolitical Future February 20

Summary Analysis of the National Guard Mobilization in support of Enduring Freedom and other U.S. military actions

By Shawn Dudley
[Mr. Dudley is a regular reader of Orbat.com]

The source for most (but not all) of the below can be found at defenselink.mil, specifically Defenselink.mil/ And earlier postings (the DoD puts out a new list most every Wednesday).

Some key points can be made from studying the mobilization of the National Guard and Reserves concerning current US military operations:
* Brigade-sized elements of 5 out of 8 NG Divisions have been mobilized
* Units of 6 of the Enhanced NG Brigades have been mobilized, out of 15 brigades available. None of the Enhanced Brigades, however, are 100% mobilized.
An initial analysis of the Army National Guard and Army Reserve mobilization reveals:

1) a very heavy concentration in unconventional warfare. The highest proportion of units activated are Special Forces, PsyOps, Civil Affairs, and Military Intelligence. Nearly all of the available units are activated, and many have been since Afghanistan.
2) Call-ups for certain types of very specialized units. CH-47 Aviation companies are mostly activated (at least 3 NG and 2 AR). Also Transport and Bridge Engineer units for the upcoming Iraq campaign.
3) Force Protection is the next priority. Nearly all National Guard and Army Reserve Military Police units are in service (not to mention many of the Air National Guard Security Police squadrons). There are a total of five battalions of Guard Avengers providing air defense, some for homeland sites, and an increasing number of combat units are being called into service in some sort of security role.

There are other conclusions to be drawn, but perhaps the most obvious is the size of the mobilization. Following 9/11, the Army mobilized somewhere between 12 and 15 battalion sized task forces of armor or infantry, primarily for domestic security. Only a limited number (such as Task Force Santa Fe) were deployed overseas. In 2003, there are at least 20 such task forces, and possibly more to come, almost all of which are to see overseas deployments. Probably about 20% of the Guard's combat potential is currently on active duty.
Here are some of the combat unit deployments, and some notes on each.

For rest of the article, please Click here

Return To Top February 26, 2003

Senior Iraq Defector May Not Have Made It – II

Debka for full article.

All may not be well for Adib Shaaban, senior aide to Saddam’s powerful son Uday and Iraq’s highest-ranking would-be defector. His attempt to flee to the United States, first revealed exclusively in DEBKA-Net-Weekly 97 (February 14), may not have come off.

First a recap: Shaaban -- charged with Uday’s most sensitive missions -- traveled to Jeddah in early February, saying he needed to put through some gold transactions ahead of the war.

From Jeddah, he flew to Beirut and disappeared.

But he never really went to the Lebanese capital. Instead, he made his way undercover to Damascus Monday and was picked up by an unmarked plane that flew him out of the Middle East.

At least, that’s how Shaaban scripted his plan. But like so many things in the murky world of intelligence, the plan went awry – as is strongly indicated by the fresh information reaching DEBKA-Net-Weekly.

Our sources suggest that upon landing at Damascus on Saturday, February 8, he walked straight into the arms of waiting...

Return To Top February 26, 2003

Moscow Offers Plan to Prevent War and Rescue Saddam

Debka for full article.

German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder makes a lightening, unscheduled trip to Moscow Wednesday, February 26, heading back home the same evening. What urgent business takes Schroeder to the Russian capital?

According to DEBKAfile’s intelligence and Russian sources, Russian President Vladimir Putin has stepped into the bipolar crisis over Iraq between the US-led and French-led world blocs with a dramatic proposition for averting war. In this approach, he sees eye to eye with the French, German and Chinese rulers and is eager to consult with the Schroeder on his new plan.

But first, he tried selling it to Iraqi ruler Saddam Hussein. For this mission, he fielded one of Moscow’s diplomatic heavyweights, Yevgeny Primakov. KGB chief Middle East resident in the 1970s, Soviet foreign minister and Russian prime minister under Yeltsin, Primakov is also a longtime close personal friend of the Iraqi dictator from the old days of the Soviet Union. Primakov landed in Baghdad on Saturday, February...

Return To Top February 26, 2003

February 25, 2003

Editorial: A Modest Proposal on Iraq
Washington's Growing Backyard War
US plans total war against Kim February 24
Iraq Hints at Destroying Al-Samoud 2 Missiles February 24
Terrorism a pretext to conquer world, says Malaysia's Mahathir February 24
US, Philippines Offer Different Versions of Bolstered US Troop Presence February 23
6th Afghan Battalion Graduates Training February 23
Iraq: Why No smoking Gun? February 23
US offers India $2.5bn, oil to support war against Iraq February 23
Coup in Pakistan - Misperceptions and Reality: Letter from Major Amin February 22
Coup in Pakistan?India Seeks to Exploit US Distraction February 20
Pakistan's Geopolitical Future February 20

Editorial: A Modest proposal on Iraq

In this editorial Ravi Rikhye is speaking only for himself, not for any other person associated with Orbat.com.

Your editor has been watching the Iraq debate with some bemusement and sympathy for all viewpoints.

From the American viewpoint, Mr. Saddam Hussein has to go, and Iraq must be the first step in the American plan to remake the Middle East. Your editor’s home country, India, has suffered far more grievously than the United States from of terrorism fuelled by Islamic fundamentalists, particularly those from Saudi Arabia. Rooting out and destroying these fundamentalists is critical for India’s survival. This makes all the more disgusting the Indian elite’s opposition to Mr. Bush, and the Indian Government’s pathetic attempts to appease the ant-Bush lot while not antagonizing Washington. Mr. Hussein must go also because its long past time that the authoritarian regimes of the Mideast are replaced with democracies, and he is the easiest target – a good place to begin a hard job. Mr. Bush is going to war for America’s interests, but while America will gain, so will the oppressed of the Islamic world.

Conversely, your editor can understand the fear Mr. Bush’s preparation is creating in Western Europe. The Western Europeans have become accustomed to a comfortable life; all sorts of things could go wrong with Mr. Bush’s plans, and Western Europe will undoubtedly bear the brunt of the backlash. We may agree that appeasement is not the way to buy security, but on a human level it’s easy to appreciate why the West Europeans are frightened. Further, even your editor has to admit that Team Bush’s style would scare the daylights out of anyone who doesn’t understand that the style is also part of the plan to win with minimum losses – in the best case, perhaps even without war.

Yet – conversely again – Mr. Hussein has started to get serious about disarmament only because 200,000 American soldiers under an absolutely implacable Commander-in-Chief are about to give him a rather final Bad Hair Day. Your editor is sure the French and the Germans appreciate the irony of their insistence that inspections be given more time. If inspections are working, it’s only because the Mad Texan is about to stride into the saloon with his six-guns ablaze. Calm down the Texan, and the pressure is off Mr. Hussein.

What the French and Germans are not admitting publicly is that the US cannot indefinitely sit in the desert while diplomacy – which has failed for 12 years – gets a chance to work. There are other wars to be fought – see Mr. Bennett’s article below for one – and the American taxpayer is paying hundreds of millions of dollars a day to maintain the armed presence. Moreover – as India found to its embarrassment in the mobilization crises of 2002 – if you don’t use military force you lose it. Men and machines get worn out; the American military is very seriously overstretched. If Mr. Bush were to agree to another 4 months, what could he do if France and Germany ask for another 4, and another 4, at a time when even another 4 months will mean large fractions of the force will have to be stood down for rest? Ditto for the 42,000 British soldiers in the theatre. When is enough time enough time?

Here is your editor’s modest proposal to sort out this mess. France and Germany, as the two largest European militaries, should order a general mobilization, and for every American division that needs rest, two French and German divisions should go to replace. Many assets cannot be replaced, such as the carriers, but the French and Germans can make up for the air groups by sending land-based aircraft. This is not a perfect solution; still, it has the French and Germans doing their fair share in disarming Iraq and in seeing off Mr. Hussein.

Meanwhile, the rest of the world should get together, and according to each country’s means, money should be given to the United States and United Kingdom to offset their costs.

This way, the noose remains around Mr. Hussein’s neck for as long as is diplomatically necessary. If others do their share, Mr. Bush will listen. If, on the other hand, others simply seek to protect their interests at the expense of US interests, and have only moral lectures to offer, well then, war it will be, and if that is the end of NATO and the United Nations, then so be it. Humans grow old and useless; nature ensures they die so that young, strong, and vigorous humans can take their place. So it must be with institutions.

Return To Top February 25, 2003

Washington's growing backyard war - A special report by Richard M. Bennett

Mr. Bennett’s company is rbmedia.

Despite constant US denials that the three Americans being held by left wing Rebels deep in the Colombian jungles of the Caqueta province are CIA officers, it is more than likely that they and the American found murdered near where the aircraft crashed on February 13th not far from Florencia some 380kms (235miles) south of the capital Bogota, were indeed on an intelligence mission. They are in all probability contracted Intelligence personnel supplied by one of the large number of commercial 'front' organizations such as DynCorp that are regularly used by the United States in third world countries. The aircraft was believed to be the military U27A version of the Cessna-208 which carried a three-barrel Gatling gun and can be used to eradicate crops of illegal drugs. It also has the ability to accommodate either a rifle squad or 3835lbs of military stores and is therefore well-suited to covert military operations and small-unit infantry engagements. However this only serves to highlight the growing US involvement in Counter-Insurgency and Anti-Terrorist operations throughout Latin America. Colombian Army spokesmen have confirmed that fierce fighting is taking place between the Army's 'Lanceros' Special Forces and the seasoned veterans of the '14th and 15th Fronts' of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), who are holding the three American hostages. The US has sent a further 150 Special Forces and Intelligence Officers to join the substantial number of American military personnel already based in Colombia to help in the search operations. Washington has spent vast sums in recent years to help Colombia tackle its illegal drugs trade and has now authorized that this aid can be used for internal security operations and further deepening US military involvement in its own backyard.

As they did in Vietnam 40 years ago the United States is subtly increasing its military intervention in Colombia and although the exact level of forces deployed is still shrouded in secrecy it has been reliably estimated that between 1000 and 2000 US personnel are 'in-country' at any one time. Originally a largely anti-narcotic operation, since 9-11 in particular there has been a growing involvement in 'Direct action', co-ordinating, organizing and at times, commanding and implementing the war against the insurgents, indeed while many of the US troops are classified simply as being involved in 'intelligence' and 'security' projects, others are known to be running so-called 'black-ops' with the CIA Station in Bogotá. Known US deployments in Colombia include some 120 soldiers attached to a military intelligence battalion based at the Joint Intelligence Center (JIC) at the Tres Esquinas military base in the southern Colombian department of Putumayo, while at least four Special Forces teams from the 7th Special Forces Group are training Colombian Army counterinsurgency battalions in the southern departments of Putumayo and Caqueta. Three or four US Navy SEAL teams are training Colombian Marines and Navy riverine (river operations) personnel in various locations throughout Colombia and these are supported by an additional team of around 45 former US Navy SEALS conducting riverine training on contract for the US State Department in the Putumayo department although they are officially still based in the Peruvian city of Iquitos. Importantly, because of the nature of the difficult terrain encountered, at least four teams of pilots, gunners and engineers from the 6th USAF Special Operations Squadron are known to be training Colombian Army and Air Force pilots in use of the Bell UH1 Huey helicopters as well as in tactical operations and close-air support.

CIA, NSA and contracted Intelligence personnel are based at five separate communications monitoring and radar installations on the military bases at San Jose del Guaviare, Marandua, Leticia, Riohacha and San Andres Island, while others are also attached to mobile listening posts that move between various military bases in Colombia. These are protected by US Special Forces and four additional 50-man teams of Security personnel who also responsible for US facilities at the military bases in Miraflores, Mariquita, Santa Marta and Puerto Asis. The activities of US personnel are co-ordinated through the US Military Mission, CIA Station and Embassy in Bogota and importantly the 14 -15 former US military and intelligence officers employed by the US State Department who are based in the capital Bogota to advise the Colombian military high command. However Washington's growing direct involvement in the Civil War in Colombia is only part of a larger military commitment in Latin America that now includes US forces deployed at Hato International Airport on Curacao in the Netherlands Antilles; the Reina Beatrix Airport at Aruba in the Netherlands Antilles; the Comalpa International Airport in El Salvador; the Soto Cano Military Airfield in Honduras and the large base at Santa Lucia in Peru which is almost certainly used for classified missions 'in-country' and around the Colombian border area and US Special Forces, USAF, CIA and NSA personnel are believed to be based there. However the largest and most contentious bases in the region are undoubtedly those at Manta in Ecuador. The concession of an airbase at the Eloy Alfaro Airport and naval facilities to the United States in 1999 supposedly for use in its fight against the drug trade could markedly increase the impact of the Colombian conflict on Ecuador. The flow of Colombian refugees into Ecuador, caused by fighting between leftist FARC guerrillas, right-wing paramilitaries and the Colombian Army in areas near the border, has fuelled fears that the country is being drawn into its neighbours civil war and the alarm grew even more intense when unconfirmed rumours began to circulate that Colombian rebel forces were setting up camps inside Ecuadorian territory. The United States has also embarked upon a large scale retraining and re-equipment program aimed at turning the Ecuador Army's 9th Patria Special Forces Brigade at Latacunga into a major counter-insurgency unit. The four GFE Para Commando Battalions; 24th-25th-26th-27th, along with the 9th GEK Squadron, 6th Recon LRRP Battalion for long range reconnaissance and patrol behind 'enemy' lines and the Puma hostage rescue unit have now all received intensive training from US Green Berets, with selected officers being sent to the John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center at Fort Bragg in North Carolina on specialist courses.

Risk of a wider South American guerrilla war

The fact that the facilities at Manta at now being used increasingly to support US military operations within Colombia has raised the fear that that the rebels may see the Manta base, only 20 minutes flying time from the border and which is currently receiving a $100 million upgrade, as a legitimate target. The base, known as a Forward Operating Location (FOL), houses E3 AWACS surveillance aircraft monitoring rebel arms smuggling and drug cartel flights, along with other smaller USAF spy planes and backed up by over 500 personnel. Manta has taken over the role once played by the former USAF Howard air base near Panama City and is now seen as a pivotal part of Plan Colombia, the $1.3 billion plus program aimed at undermining the FARC rebel - drugs cartel alliance in Colombia. Observers have commented recently that Ecuador is fast become the 'new Panama' and its position will allow US forces to be deployed not only in Colombia, but Venezuela, Peru and Bolivia if so wished. Manta, some 240kms (150 miles) west of the capital of Quito, has quickly become a vital part of the new network of US surveillance facilities in Latin America and the Caribbean said to cost a total of $116 million, with yearly maintenance estimated at $14 million, however no rent will be paid to the host Governments for any of them.

The War on Terrorism is now having an increasing influence on US activities in Latin America as Washington seeks to link FARC with the international terrorist movement, made considerably easier with the discovery that three members of the IRA were training them in bomb-making techniques. However the recent arrest at Gatwick airport of a suspected terrorist with both Islamic and Venezuelan connections and the US accusations that Islamic terrorists have been using the Venezuelan resort of Margarita Island in recent months raise the prospect that oil-rich Venezuela may now be about to follow Iraq onto the list of nations destined for regime change by direct intervention. The island is located about 37km (23 miles) off the northeast coast of Venezuela, CIA reports have claimed that terrorists are transiting the island enroute to the Tri-border region (or Triple Frontier) where the borders of Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay converge and which has long be suspected of being an Al Qa'ida stronghold.. Margarita Island has been previously identified by Washington sources as a centre of terrorist financing along with Panama and the Cayman Islands. The CIA have developed a covert program for the removal of President Hugo Chavez and the restoration of US control over Venezuela's oil reserves, considered vital at a time of crisis in the Middle East. So far Washington's backing for strikes, civil unrest and a military coup have proved unsuccessful, however an attempt to link Venezuela with Islamic terrorism may be seen as an option to alienate Latin American support from the embattled Chavez and make his eventual overthrow rather more acceptable to other South American leaders.

While the world is distracted by the threat of conflict with Iraq and the growing crisis over the other nations in the so-called 'axis of evil', as well as the on-going war on terrorism, the United States is expanding its military involvement in Latin America to a dangerous and largely un-noticed degree. While Iraq could become America's Chechnya, it is far more likely that the intractable conflicts in the vast jungles of South America will become the new Vietnam and this time much closer to home, right in Washington's own backyard in fact.

Return To Top February 25, 2003

February 24, 2003

US plans total war against Kim
Iraq Hints at Destroying Al-Samoud 2 Missiles
Terrorism a pretext to conquer world, says Malaysia's Mahathir
US, Philippines Offer Different Versions of Bolstered US Troop Presence February 23
6th Afghan Battalion Graduates Training February 23
Iraq: Why No smoking Gun? February 23
US offers India $2.5bn, oil to support war against Iraq February 23
Coup in Pakistan - Misperceptions and Reality: Letter from Major Amin February 22
Letters to the Editor on Syrian Tank Upgrades February 21
Letter to the Editor Re. US 2nd ACR February 20
Coup in Pakistan?India Seeks to Exploit US Distraction February 20
Pakistan's Geopolitical Future February 20

US plans total war against Kim

By Ian Mather writing in Scotland on Sunday. For full story click Globalsecurity.org.

WHILE the White House continues its public war of words with North Korea, a battle plan is already being laid in secret by military strategists at the Pentagon.

Until now leader Kim Jong Il’s increasingly flamboyant and frightening game of international brinkmanship has only attracted condemnation from the Bush administration.

But behind the scenes, American strategists are now weighing up the option of a pre-emptive military strike against North Korea as the rogue Stalinist state forges ahead with its plans to build a nuclear arsenal - threatening not only a "domino effect" of nuclear proliferation in east Asia but also a strike against the very heart of America.

It is a terrifying scenario, with likely casualties running to one million during the first day of an attack on North Korea - most falling victim to the long-range artillery trained on its southern neighbour.

Last week, in its most defiant act yet, a North Korean fighter jet crossed the border and played cat-and-mouse with a South Korean aircraft. When the US condemned the incursion, North Korea declared that there could be nuclear war on the Korean peninsula "at any time".

The US responded by placing on alert its long-range bombers based on Guam and ordering the aircraft carrier Carl Vinson and its battle group to sail to waters off the Korean Peninsula, fuelling talk of a possible US pre-emptive strike against North Korea’s nuclear facilities.

Return To Top February 24, 2003

Iraq hints at destroying al-Samud 2 missiles

Jang for full story.

BAGHDAD: Iraq said on Sunday it was seriously studying a UN request to destroy its al-Samoud 2 missiles as it test-fired a rocket engine to show UN weapons inspectors it did not violate range limits.

"We are studying the letter of (chief weapons inspector) Mr Blix about destroying the missiles in depth and in a serious and comprehensive way," General Husam Mohammad Amin, head of Iraq's weapons monitoring, told a news conference. "We hope that this issue will be resolved through agreement and cooperation and without interference from the Americans and the British. I believe that we will be able to resolve this issue without any intervention by those with evil intentions," Amin added.

But he refused to answer direct questions on whether Iraq would destroy the missiles. "I can assert and I say that this missile only constitutes one aspect of our defence capabilities. Destroying these missiles will affect our defence capabilities but would not completely terminate them," he added.

The United States and Britain are, meanwhile, mounting a diplomatic effort to persuade UN Security Council members to back a new resolution paving the way for war if Iraq does not disarm peacefully. Sunday's test-firing of a rocket engine in front of the UN experts happened at the Falluja site 70 kms west of Baghdad. "This is the fifth time that the arms inspectors see such a test," Colonel Ali Jasim Hussein told Reuters Television.

Return To Top February 24, 2003

Terrorism a pretext to conquer world: Mahathir

Jang for full story.

NAM draft resolution rejects attack on Iraq, rebukes Bush 'axis of evil' description; calls for UN conference to draw distinction between terrorists and freedom fighters

KUALA LUMPUR: Western powers are using terrorism as a pretext to conquer the world and will target Iran and North Korea once they succeed in Iraq, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said on Sunday.

Leaders of the developed countries have become "like a people of the Stone Age where for them, the solution to a problem is by killing people," he told more than 100,000 Malaysians at a mass peace rally here.

"Following the September 11, 2001 attacks, they found the excuse to once again conquer the world," said Mahathir, who takes over the leadership of the 114-nation Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) at a summit opening here on Monday.

"I am confident that if they succeed in Iraq, they will shift their focus to Iran and after Iran, to North Korea. After North Korea, who will be their next victim? It is clear that the Western powers want to once again conquer the world," he said.

An impassioned Mahathir slammed rich nations for their "double standards," saying they criticised developing countries on human rights issues but ignored the growing worldwide protest against a war in Iraq. "Do as I tell you but don't do as I do. This is a blatant example of double standards by the west," he said.

Return To Top February 24, 2003

February 23, 2003

US, Philippines Offer Different Versions of Bolstered US Troop Presence
6th Afghan Battalion Graduates Training
Iraq: Why No smoking Gun?
US offers India $2.5bn, oil to support war against Iraq
Coup in Pakistan - Misperceptions and Reality: Letter from Major Amin February 22
Letters to the Editor on Syrian Tank Upgrades February 21
Letter to the Editor Re. US 2nd ACR February 20
Coup in Pakistan?India Seeks to Exploit US Distraction February 20
Pakistan's Geopolitical Future February 20

US, Philippines Offer Different Versions of Bolstered US Troop Presence

Analysis at Orbat.com Editor Johann Price writes:

The first story from the Manila based Inquirer emphasises the official Filipino description of the deployment; a small contingent of US forces in the Philippines conducting an exercise for a fixed duration. Washington has not presented a different picture in media statements.

At the same time the second story from American Forces Press Service makes it clear that the detachment is not small (they are in fact backed up by an entire MEU/ARG), that they are intended to carry out combat operations, and that these operations are in fact open ended.

12 US Green Berets arrive from Okinawa

Inquirer News Service with Inquirer wires [Manila] Inquirer

U.S., Philippines to Operate Against Abu Sayyaf Terrorists

By Jim Garamone American Forces Press Service US Defense Link

Johann Price continues:

Note the differences between the two reports in terms of the role and footprint of US forces, a concession designed to avoid the kind of nationalistic Filipino political activism that ended the American presence at Clarke airbase and Subic Bay. Unfortunately the fiction is so half hearted that even official and semi-official sources can not keep their stories straight. Consider for example this US Pacific Command Public Affairs Office news release from January 16:

Philippines qualifies for Combat Zone Tax Exclusion

U.S. Armed Services members who deployed to the Republic of the Philippines in conjunction with Operation Enduring Freedom since Jan. 9, 2002, are eligible for the Combat Zone Tax Exclusion under a declaration from the Department of Defense.

A combat zone is any area the President of the United States designates as an area U.S. Armed Forces are engaging or have engaged in combat. The provisions of the Executive Order allow the Defense Department to certify other regions and countries for the tax relief exclusion under certain criteria.

Afghanistan (and airspace above) was designated as a combat zone by Executive Order No. 13239. The Philippines was certified as meeting the requirements for service in direct support of a military operations in the Afghanistan combat zone in a memorandum from the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Force Management Policy Charles S. Abell, dated Oct. 31, 2002.

A member of the Armed Services is entitled to tax exclusion for any month during any part the member served in the Philippines in support of Operation Enduring Freedom - Philippines. For enlisted personnel, base pay is not taxed. For commissioned officers, the tax exclusion is limited to the highest rate of enlisted base-pay (E-9).

Service member must have physically been in the Philippines and the mission directly related to OEF-P. Individuals who supported OEF-P from a supporting U.S. base or headquarters do not qualify. Service members, who are in the Philippines merely for their own convenience while on leave or liberty, are not entitled to the exclusion."

Source: Pacom.mil

Comment by Johann Price

The Bush Administration and Rumsfeld's DoD have adopted a strategy of confronting the most active and threatening of al-Qaeda affiliated regional guerilla groups despite the strong fears of 'low intensity' conflict that have lingered since Vietnam. The standing with Combined Joint Task Force- Horn of Africa activated late last year (with its own dedicated special opertions forces contingent as well) and of course Combined Joint Task Force- Afghanistan are the others.

That American fear, along with regional sensitivities accounts for the remarkably low profile of such missions despite the fact that they can expect to find themselves in real combat. Just last week a U.S. B-52 bomber dropped a 2,000-pound JDAM and an AC-130 gunship fired about ten 105 mm cannon rounds at the caves in northern Helmand province where three hostiles evading Coalition Forces were taking cover. Yesterday an American soldier on a routine mounted patrol near Gardez lost his right foot when the vehicle he was in struck a mine.

Neither Afghanistan nor the Philippines should be feared because of the absence of quick solutions; it is difficult to counsel inaction against an enemy as quick and adaptable as al-Qaeda. Neither area of operations show the massive popular opposition that defeated the Soviets 1979-1989 or the Americans in Vietnam 1965-75. In both wars those who intervened lost their way when they forgot they were there to assist rather than direct, and worse still failed to address the fundamental weaknesses of the local allies. It is advisable that all of us strive to remain informed of just what Coalition forces around the world are doing in the war on terrorism and why.

Otherwise, there is be no guarantee that the cumulative signs of drift in these classic ‘small wars’ can be detected in time, obscured in between bureaucracies and media outfits concerned with bigger things.

Return To Top February 23, 2003

6th battalion of Afghan Army graduates training

Gordon MacKinlay forwards this article [excerpts] Sgt. Valerie Dey-Bolejack from US DOD sources.

KABUL, Afghanistan (Army News Service, Feb. 20, 2003) - The 6th Battalion, Afghan National Army finished basic training at the Kabul Military Training Center Feb. 9, fielding almost 600 more troops for the central government.

The training of the 6th BANA, which lasted 10 weeks, was conducted by a cadre from the French Army. The French and U.S. armies have alternated as trainers for each class of Afghan recruits trained at KMTC since the first battalion began training in April 2002. The training program includes combat tactics, platoon level training and various other skills needed to accomplish missions throughout the country.

At the graduation ceremony, the 6th BANA gathered in formation for a pass and review for their commander and for presentation to the visiting dignitaries gathered under a banner proclaiming, "We are Afghan, Afghanistan is our country and we are proud of her."

Capt. Pachiauen Pascal, French Army, 7th Battalion Mountain, said the morale of 6th BANA soldiers is good. "They are all volunteers," he said. "They want to learn and are very proud every time they accomplish a task."

Also at the ceremony, 6th BANA soldiers showed off their combat skills to the crowd. The demonstration included soldiers rappelling down the side of a building, gathering as a squad and simulating fighting off attackers with a variety of weapons. They also showed the crowd a mortar and anti-tank rocket firing position setup demonstration, a hand-to-hand combat drill and a first aid casualty pickup demonstration.

The Afghan National Army band played as the soldiers passed in review.

The soldiers will be deployed throughout Afghanistan on various missions in support of the central government, to provide stability and continue the fight against terrorism, officials said.

Since inception, the KMTC has graduated six battalions of the Afghan National Army, comprising more than 2,300 Afghan soldiers.

Return To Top February 23, 2003

Iraq: Why No Smoking Gun?

Analysis by Richard M. Bennett.

Both the United States and British Governments remain convinced that Iraq does have illegal stocks of chemical and biological weapons and is still attempting to covertly pursue both nuclear weapons and long range missile programs in defiance of United Nations regulations. There is a long running, and some would argue, natural reluctance for the intelligence communities to allow more detailed evidence of Iraq's supposed capabilities to be made public. This can be explained by a wish to protect highly vulnerable sources, methods of surveillance and their overall effectiveness or equally to hide the lack of a convincing 'smoking gun'. Whatever may be the truth, it cannot be denied that Iraq both before the Gulf War and in the period 1991-1998 carried out a truly massive and international program to obtain weapons of mass destruction and their methods of delivery from the so-called 'Super Gun' to a strategic missile capability. The creation in 1996 of the Special Chemical Corps and the activities of the Al Amn al-Khas or Special Security Service were specifically designed to obstruct the arms inspectors and to create a program to hide future WMD development. Saddam Hussein does have a history of brutality and aggression, he also has a reputation for making costly mistakes that have caused his country endless and catastrophic problems. He is also without a shadow of a doubt a very lucky dictator having survived countless attempted assassinations and coups. That accepted, what are the arguments for international intervention and the evidence that he is a 'clear and present danger' other than to his own people?

Without a statement from the UN Inspectors that there is firm evidence of a nuclear program or discovery of genuine long range missile systems capable of hitting Israel or Europe then the present limited 'regional-strategic' military threat from Iraq is derisory. However, there are those analysts who claim that since the last round of UN inspections ended in 1998 that much of Iraq's clandestine advanced weapons program has been well hidden underground in secure tunnels built with North Korean assistance or moved out of the country altogether. This latter argument put forward by some intelligence sources in the USA, but mainly promoted by those in Israel has suggested that secret facilities on the Libyan-Egyptian border, or less likely in Iran or even perhaps Sudan and the Yemen now carry on the work on a much reduced scale. Similar sources have also put it to AFI Research that the discovery of an Al-Samoud Two missile with an illegally increased range of some 115-120 miles is merely the tip of an iceberg rather than an example of Iraq seeking to deliver a larger and more powerful warhead over the legally allowed range. Accusations of North Korean involvement in developing long range and far more accurate systems in Iraq is made more believable by a confirmed program carried out by Pyongyang's technicians in neighbouring Syria where a network of underground tunnels houses upto 1,000 improved SCUD missiles many of which are armed with chemical agent warheads. Unsubstantiated rumours persist that North Korea has managed to smuggle a significant number of long range missiles into Iraq and this has indeed been given a little extra credence by the recent discovery of North Korean SCUD type missiles on a merchant vessel sailing to the Yemen. Attempts by Iraq to bolster its crumbling air defences battered by twelve years of constant Allied air attacks is said to be aimed at protecting sites where weapons of mass destruction may be deployed, advanced radar from the Ukraine believed to be capable of detecting US Stealth aircraft is reported by some observers to have been installed with the help of Serbian experts and linked to a more secure command and control network built by the Communist Chinese. While much of this does seem to have been confirmed by intelligence sources, it remains a matter of conjecture whether it would materially affect a US air campaign.

It has been forcefully argued that Iraq may seek to retaliate against Western interests by non-conventional means and here the spectre of some form of linkage with terrorism and with Al Qa'ida in particular is regularly broached. Iraqi defectors have drawn attention to restricted areas of the former CBW facilities at Salman Pak where what would seem, from their reports and satellite surveillance images, to be a special forces training encampment has been constructed. The facilities which are under the direct control of the Da'irat al Mukharabarat al Amah or Department of General Intelligence, appear to include a large passenger aircraft fuselage, commercial vehicles, buildings and other structures normally associated with training in HRO or hostage rescue operations and anti-hijacking techniques. The detailed accusations however are that these same facilities have been used to train Islamic terrorist from Algeria, Yemen, Palestine and members of the former Abu Nidal group in active measures. No concrete evidence has been put forward of a genuine Al Qa'ida connection, though suggestions have been made of a link with the Algerian GSPC or Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat which has caused some considerable concern in both France and Spain and may be linked to the arrest of numerous suspects believed to be of Algerian origin in Britain in recent weeks and which were largely as a result of intelligence tip-offs from Madrid and Paris. Members of the GSPC are believed to have trained in Iraq and the group is understood to be connected to Al Qa'ida. The evidence is however tenuous and although of considerable interest, does not yet conclusively prove linkage between Saddam Hussein and Osama Bin Laden or his successors.

Of more direct concern is the allegation that Iraq may seek to directly attack the West with chemical, biological or perhaps so-called 'dirty' nuclear weapons delivered by its own special forces and intelligence officers operating throughout the USA and Europe under legitimate business, journalistic or diplomatic cover. The evidence that Saddam Hussein may have that capability rests largely upon the existence of organizations such as the Special Operations Group -999 of the Al-Istikhbarat Al-Askariyya or Military Intelligence. This unit believed to have its main headquarters at Salman Pak is organized into six battalions named for their target areas including the 1st Persian, 2nd Saudi Arabian, 3rd Palestine(Israel) and 4th Turkish. However it is the 5th Marine and 6th Opposition Battalions that are of most interest in this context. The so-called Marine unit is trained in SEAL-style warfare and while nowhere near the standards demanded of the US Marine Corps is by all accounts an effective and dangerous force.The 'Opposition' unit is probably the most significant of all, for it is this unit that would be called upon to operate within hostile nations such as the United States and Britain. It has recently been suggested by Israeli security sources that all of this latter units 500 or so personnel have already been dispersed to their allotted target areas. Without conformation, usually impossible to obtain short of significant arrests being made, this must still be considered in the context of Western 'Black Operations', disinformation designed to confuse or mislead.

Note on AFI Research , which Mr. Bennett heads

AFI has compiled a comprehensive report on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction, its military capability, intelligence structure and its non-conventional warfare capability as well as its links to other countries and groups. This covers numerous 'Special' organizations and facilities sufficient to cause considerable concern in the West, but it must still remain open to the reader to decide whether it is sufficient to warrant military action and the risk of destabilizing an entire region and souring relations with the Muslim World for a generation or more. In the last remaining weeks of peace it must be right for the authorities in Washington and London to provide far more confirmation of the Iraqi threat. Even if only to justify military action for which, in the light of well presented evidence, it may become increasingly obvious that there is indeed no genuine long term alternative. Without a shadow of doubt the world urgently needs 'facts before bombs and evidence before war'.

To purchase a copy of Research Report No-60 "Iraq, the evidence" contact AFI Research rbmedia.com

Return To Top February 23, 2003

US offers India $2.5bn, oil to support war against Iraq

Pakistan’s Jang quotes the Asian Age in this story.

NEW DELHI: The United States has offered to give India the $2.5 billion owed to it by Iraq and assure its oil supply for unambiguous support of its war against Baghdad, a report said on Saturday. The Asian Age newspaper said that Washington would also award New Delhi a major chunk of reconstruction activities in post-war Iraq in exchange for unconditional backing. The report did not specify when or through what channels Washington's offers were conveyed to New Delhi, but said State Department officials had told visiting Indian foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal that US and Indian interests could converge after the war. It said oil remained a major lure, with Washington making clear that all countries clearly standing behind the United States would get a share in the proceeds of the war and removal of Saddam Hussein. India imports most of its oil and gas and its projected requirement in the fiscal year to March is 108 million tonnes of crude oil, against local production of 33 million tonnes. Estimated consumption of 55 million tonnes of natural gas compares with domestic production of 24 million tonnes.

Return To Top February 23, 2003

February 22, 2003

Coup in Pakistan - Misperceptions and Reality: Letter from Major Amin
Turkey and the US
Iraq Ready To Talk if US Drops War
Gear Gets to Turkey; Troops Wait February 21
Pakistan Air Force Chief, Several Senior Officers Die in Crash February 21
Gurkhas Deploy to Sierra Leone february 21
Letters to the Editor on Syrian Tank Upgrades February 21
Letter to the Editor Re. US 2nd ACR February 20
Coup in Pakistan?India Seeks to Exploit US Distraction February 20
Pakistan's Geopolitical Future February 20

Coup in Pakistan - Misperceptions and Reality: Letter from Major Amin

Lately there has been lot of speculation about coup in Pakistan. Most of it is based on many misperceptions about the Pakistan Army.

Coups are launched by dynamic men like my comrade Aslam Watanyar, the indomitable socialist from Paktiya, who with a tank unit changed the course of history of Afghanistan. The fact that the PDPA Government failed in the long run does not diminish Watanyar's role.

The Pakistani officer corps comprises largely of lower middle class origin people. This breed is more interested in self-advancement and climbing the social ladder than in any sublime grand strategic heroic venture like a coup. Their coup is getting a good ACR (Report) and becoming a general. After all, the brilliant Von Stauffenberg, who placed the bomb in Hitler's bunker, was an aristocrat! Lenin and Mao were from the more well off classes. This is not the case with the Pakistan officers. The large majority come from humble backgrounds, thus are socially conservative, cautious and narrow and petty in outlook.

Who would launch the coup? Historically the Pakistani intelligence agencies have been more proficient in spying on their own people than in real intelligence work. Thus the famous ISI miserably failed in real intelligence operational work! They failed to detect location of Indian Armoured Division in 1965.They failed to find when the Indians came 35 miles inside Siachen in 1984. All they succeeded in was in finding coup makers! Thus they located the Attock Conspiracy, the indomitable Tajammul who wanted to liquidate the usurper Zia in 1980. All this makes a coup difficult.

So what are the possibilities?

1- A classic coup by an organised group -Low 20 % but possible.

2- A Random Assassination attempt -Possible -50 % (Like Mrs. Indira Gandhi, who was liquidated by a body guard ).

3-A super power planned disposal-like that of Zia in 17 August 1988 - Brilliantly planned, faultlessly executed by USA in all probability - High -80 %

Aziz Khan has no command of troops. His potential as replacement of Musharaf is not likely. The average Pakistani officer beyond colonel is a meek submissive docile man as far as coup launching is concerned. The system ensures "Goof Selection Syndrome". All who go beyond colonel are castrated and have no guts left to mount a coup.

The third possibility: The USA would be ideally happy if Musharraf is removed in an accidental crash, an unnatural death. This would give them an excuse to destroy Pakistan's Nuclear Assets. A moral justification to launch a just war. Musharraf would be more useful to USA as a dead man than alive perhaps in the aftermath of the Iraq War of 2003.The world would be told that the USA had to act because Pakistan's Nuclear assets would have fallen in Islamist hands in the situation following Musharraf's demise.

God save Pakistan! Pakistan has laboured for long but so far it has failed to produce a man among its higher leadership ! What can I say to the Pakistani officer corps: At this moment in PAKISTAN'S history we need a great man at the helm of the affairs who cannot be intimidated by one phone call from Bush. One who for his conviction would hazard war even with the heavens!

Return To Top February 22, 2003

Turkey and the US

Forwarded by reader Ethan, a story by Owen Mathhews, Sa,I Kohen, and John Barry. Please click MSNBC for original

Turkey is raising its price for allowing U.S. forces to invade Iraq from its territory. In early negotiations with the United States, Ankara spoke of sending in Turkish troops to set up a “buffer zone” perhaps 15 miles deep along the Iraqi border. This would prevent a flood of Kurdish refugees from northern Iraq, the Turks said. Ê

But now, NEWSWEEK has learned, Turkey is demanding that it send 60,000 to 80,000 of its own troops into northern Iraq to establish “strategic positions” across a “security arc” as much as 140 to 170 miles deep in Iraq. That would take Turkish troops almost halfway to Baghdad. These troops would not be under U.S. command, according to Turkish sources, who say Turkey has agreed only to “coordination” between U.S. and Turkish forces.

Ankara fears the Iraqi Kurds might use Saddam’s fall to declare independence. Kurdish leaders have not yet been told of this new plan, according to Kurdish spokesmen in Washington, who say the Kurds rejected even the earlier notion of a narrow buffer zone. Farhad Barzani, the U.S. representative of the main Kurdish party in Iraq, the KDP, says, “We have told them: American troops will come as liberators. But Turkish troops will be seen as invaders.”

The White House did not respond to requests for comment; officials elsewhere in the administration played down the Turkish demands as bargaining tactics: “We told them flat out, no.” But independent diplomatic sources in Ankara and Washington with knowledge of the U.S.-Turkey talks say that while the precise depth of the “security zone” has still to be agreed, the concept is “pretty much a done deal,” as one observer put it. These sources add that the main U.S. concern has been that U.S., not Turkish, troops occupy the northern Iraqi cities of Mosul and Kirkuk, and that Turkish troops merely surround but not enter the heavily Kurdish cities of Erbil and Sulemaniye. To get Turkey’s assent to this, these sources say, the United States had to “cave” on its demand that Turkish troops be under U.S. control.

“Turkey is playing hardball,” said Michael Amitay of the Washington Kurdish Institute. “But if the U.S. agrees to these Turkish deployments, there is a real risk that the Kurds will start a guerrilla war against the Turkish troops.

Return To Top February 22, 2003

Iraq Ready To Talk if US Drops War

Haaretz for full article.

BAGHDAD - Iraq's Vice President Taha Yassin Ramadan said in an interview broadcast Friday Iraq was ready for dialogue with the United States if it dropped its plans to invade the country.

"We have said that we are with dialogue, we are for normal ties with all countries of the world, of course except the Zionist entity [Israel], even if we have differences with this or that [country]," Ramadan told Iraq's al-Shabab television station run by Uday, the son of President Saddam Hussein.

"We have been asked several times: 'Are you ready for dialogue with the American administration to build economic ties and cooperation that fulfils mutual interests?' and we said yes... this still stands now," he said.

"This process does not go along [with U.S. plans to invade]. If they abandon aggression and there is dialogue that achieves mutual interests away from interference in internal affairs... we'll have no objections," Ramadan said.

Return To Top February 22, 2003

February 21, 2003

Gear Gets to Turkey; Troops Wait
Pakistan Air Force Chief, Several Senior Officers Die in Crash
Gurkhas Deploy to Sierra Leone
Letters to the Editor on Syrian Tank Upgrades
Letter to the Editor Re. US 2nd ACR February 20
Coup in Pakistan?India Seeks to Exploit US Distraction February 20
Pakistan's Geopolitical Future February 20
Are the War Delays Over? February 19
Russian Citizens Start Leaving Iraq February 19
Statement on Iraq By A Former UNSCOM Inspector February 19
NATO makes end run around France on defense of Turkey February 18

Gear gets to Turkey; troops wait

Stars & Stripes by Jon R Anderson

ANKARA, Turkey — Scores of U.S. military trucks and heavy transportation gear were unloaded in Turkey’s easternmost seaport Wednesday as the country’s top leaders continued to debate approval for American combat troops to also enter Turkey.

In another major development, NATO on Wednesday approved the urgent deployment of AWACS radar aircraft, Patriot missile systems and chemical-biological response units to Turkey.

“Alliance solidarity has prevailed,” said U.S. Ambassador Nicholas Burns. “By taking this step, NATO has lived up to its core responsibility … to respond to an ally in a time of threat.”

After weeks of wrangling, including an attempt by France to block the decision, the 18 ambassadors took less than 15 minutes to back a recommendation from alliance military experts to “implement defensive measures as a matter of urgency.” “We’ll move ahead very quickly,” NATO Secretary-General Lord George Robertson told Associated Press Television News. “Turkey will get what it asked for and what it needs.” More than 500 U.S. military vehicles were offloaded Wednesday in Iskenderun, a port city tucked in Turkey’s far corner of the Mediterranean just opposite the Syrian border. Turkish television video feeds from the port showed everything from Humvees and 5-ton trucks to 18-wheel fuel rigs and heavy-hauling “low boy” trailers staging at pier-side unloading areas. Winding, rugged roads heading east from Iskenderun follow along the Syrian border and lead eventually — more than 360 miles later — to Turkey’s mountainous frontier with Iraq. Hundreds of Germany-based troops have been arriving at air bases in eastern Turkey in recent days to begin preparing seaports, bridges, roads and support facilities for an influx of tens of thousands of troops that U.S. war planners hope to push through Turkey as part of a possible northern invasion of Iraq. Although Turkish officials approved site preparations three weeks ago, local lawmakers still must give final approval for combat forces to pass through the country. The Turkish parliament was to consider the issue on Tuesday, but 11th-hour bartering over the details of a multibillion-dollar economic aid package has delayed that vote. Turkey is seeking $10 billion in grants and up to $20 billion in long-term loans, diplomats said. On Wednesday, U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Robert Pearson again urged a quick decision during more top-level meetings with Turkish leaders.

“Time is a critical issue for us," Pearson said after his meeting.

Aides said that Washington has not yet fully responded to Turkey’s $30 billion aid request, explaining Pearson was delivering an “initial response.”

“We can reach a resolution because Turkey, and the U.S. were always able to do so,” Pearson said. “We want to reach an agreement as soon as possible.”

Col. Nancy Burt, spokeswoman for alliance commander Marine Gen. James Jones, said NATO leaders approved Turkey’s request for deployments of defensive units to guard NATO’s only Muslim nation against possible counterattacks from Iraq.

Three batteries of Dutch Patriot-missile defense systems left for Turkey by sea this week and are expected to take three weeks to arrive. The anti-missile rockets, supplied by Germany, will be operated by 370 Dutch Air Force troops.

Deployment of the biochemical units will wait until the Turkish military presents a detailed list of what exactly it needs to fill shortfalls in its defenses. NATO’s military headquarters will then ask allies for specific units to move to Turkey.

With land, sea and air forces already mustering for an Iraq attack from the south in Kuwait and the Persian Gulf, Pentagon leaders want to open a second front from the north, forcing Saddam Hussein to split his defenses.

Military officials, however, say time is quickly running out for Turkey to come aboard.

The lead vessels of a 20-ship armada carrying hundreds of tanks, fighting vehicles, helicopters and other war gear from the Texas-based 4th Infantry Division are already approaching the Turkish coastline.

“It’s not like we can park them in the Mediterranean indefinitely,” said one senior military official. “We are quickly reaching a point where a decision will have to be made.”

Return To Top February 21, 2003 Pakist

Pakistan Air Force, Several Other Senior Officer Die in Crash
Return To Top February 21, 2003

Gurkhas deploy to Sierra Leone

From HM Ministry of Defence

A Company group from the 2nd Battalion The Royal Gurkha Rifles is being deployed to Freetown, Sierra Leone, Defence Minister, Lord Bach, announced today.

This deployment demonstrates the UK's continuing military commitment to supporting the settlement process in Sierra Leone, and our ability to conduct such deployments rapidly and at short notice, notwithstanding our involvement in operations elsewhere in the world. The deployment is expected to last until mid-March.

HMS Iron Duke, a type 23 Frigate, is also planning to visit Freetown during the period of the Gurkha's deployment.

British troops helped bring stability to Sierra Leone when they first deployed in May 2000; 2002 marked the country's first full year of peace for a decade.

The Company group, plus HQ and support elements, totalling 300 troops, leaves for Sierra Leone tomorrow.

The Gurkhas will work alongside the UK-led International Military Advisory and Training Team (IMATT), which is helping develop professional, effective and democratically accountable Sierra Leone Armed Forces.

Return To Top February 21, 2003

Letters to the Editor on Syrian Tank Upgrades

From SAM19701011

In the coming weeks on the Iraqi-Syrian Border as the Syrian begin to shift more forces east we may see some of the new weapon systems and some older rebuilt ones that the Syrian Army has recently have been procuring. The Syrian Army has currently been withdrawing troops from Lebanon as you know and sending them east as fast as possible, and reportedly Iran is shifting forces west also. In open source articles I have the Syrian Army rebuilt in the last three years through the Belorussian Government an upgraded tank called the T-55M(6).

This updated type of T-55 has an add on armor system called the Kontankt-5 ERA add on armor system which is added to the turret, front hull, and side skirts of this tank. The older 115 mm gun is replaced with a 125 mm smoothbore gun and new fire control and ballistic computer systems. this gun cannot only fire high explosive and anti tank rounds but also reportedly the 9KP9 or 9KT20 anti tank missile.

The Ukrainian and Belorussian Governments are currently offering upgrade packages to governments that have T-55 tanks that cannot afford to buy new T-80 or T-90 tanks at the asking price of $600,000 per tank. The Ukraine Government began were the first were first to promote and this type of upgrade package purchased by the Syrian Army in 1995 under the designation T-55MV. All production has been done at tank plants number 7 and number 17 in Lvov, Ukraine. In addition the first 200 of these tanks were deployed with the Syrian Army 1st Corps in 1997 and in 1996 a further 400 order were placed. For delver by 1999. This reportedly was followed by another order in 1998 of another unknown number of tanks for delivery in 2001.

Recently this tank has been renamed for the world market the T-55M(6). In another report states that it can withstand hits from American M829 120 mm PDU rounds.

Could this mean that some of the intelligence reports are correct that the Syrians have been giving possibly upgraded and rebuilt T-55 and T-62 tanks to Iraq of this type? Is this what American and UK forces are going to be going Up against?

Will the Syrians and the Iranians intervene? What is the status of this weapon system around the world? It seems like a viable weapon against something the West has currently, not great but viable.

I found this information and sources from * Journal of Military Ordinance November 2001 Volume 11 number 6

From Johann Price, Editor Analysis

There have been all sort of murky reports of Syrian-Iraqi co-operation, but I have not heard any reports that Iraq (which has its own contacts with Belarus) has seen such improvement in the quantity and quality of its armour to seriously worry Coalition field commanders.

I am highly skeptical that either the Syrians or Iranians will cross in any depth in to Iraqi territory unless the coalition's thrust from the north is cancelled on account of Turkish intransigence. Neither state is ready for direct confrontation with the US. They would like however to dissuade any coalition incurions in to their borders either in hot pursuit or as some sort indirect approach. There are also probable concerns regarding uncontrolled refugee flows in the even of any prolonged fighting in the north.

The Syrians are great survivors and have consistently made the right call in terms of keeping the Americans off their back in the last decade and a half in terms without substantially changing their behavior. How many other Soviet client states can say that? There's certainly no love lost for Saddam, and they have managed to avoid the axis of evil list. There's just the opportunity to milk an increasingly desperate old enemy for everything he's worth. Think of the way Saddam sent half of his air force to Iran in 1991 to save them from Coalition PGMs. The Iranians have still got them.

Return To Top February 21, 2003

February 20, 2003

Letter to the Editor Re. US 2nd ACR
Coup in Pakistan?India Seeks to Exploit US Distraction
Pakistan's Geopolitical Future
Are the War Delays Over? February 19
Russian Citizens Start Leaving Iraq February 19
Statement on Iraq By A Former UNSCOM Inspector February 19
NATO makes end run around France on defense of Turkey February 18
101st gears up to ship out to Persian Gulf February 18
Hamas chief killed in Gaza operation Februaru 18
Iraq-al Qaeda Partnership to Target Gulf Oil Fields February 17
Uday Hussain's Aide Defects February 16

Letter to the Editor Re. US 2nd ACR

From Roger Houston.

I wouldn't be surprised if 2ACR would be tagged to go to the ITO (Iraqi Theater of Operations) as a follow-on force for occupation duties ans peacekeeping. The 2nd Dragoons would be perfect for the oilfield security mission, as well as internal security of the smaller cities that were not hot.(like Basra maybe?). The unit has the Kiowa Warrior squadron that could be used for scouting and surveillance along the Iranian border in case something got interesting there. I would not put the 2nd against a Republican Guard armored division equipped with T-72's and BMP'S unless it had a bunch of air,artillery and armored support. I don't believe the 2nd could do a repeat of 73 Easting in its present form.

The 278th ACR has just come off a very sucessful NTC rotation. I am very surprised this unit has not been alerted for something. The air squadron is a little lacking since it has not received the Kiowa Warrior and Apache yet, but the ground squadrons have M-1A1,M-3A2,and Paladins. Task Force an active aviation element and the 278th is a potent force.

Return To Top February 20, 2003

Coup in Pakistan? India Seeks to Exploit US Distraction

Forwarded by Ram Narayanan, an article from Stratfor.

[Editor’s Note: Talk of coups in Pakistan is nothing new in Delhi. We personally feel its absurd to suggest Delhi is “is quietly warning that if Washington doesn't drop Musharraf and find a true pro-U.S. general to lead Pakistan soon, it might face a much bigger threat than Iraq”. Delhi knows quite well General Musharraf’s problems at home stem in large part because he is pro-US and the very great majority of his people are not. In the current situation no more pro-US general – if there is such a person - could come to power and hope to stay. Also, Delhi is not so naïve as to believe the US has merely to snap its fingers to effect regime change in Pakistan. For the rest, the article does lay out some interesting possibilities as to who might succeed President Musharraf should he start losing his hold, and is worth reading for that reason. Nontheless, Major Amin’s article, which follows Stratfor’s, is a considerably more perceptive analysis of President Musharraf’s position and rule.]

Indian sources are leaking rumors of a possible right-wing military coup in Pakistan just as Washington is making final preparations for a war in Iraq. In the event of the ouster of Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf, Gen. Mohammad Aziz Khan, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, would take over the military and the country. New Delhi is quietly warning that if Washington doesn't drop Musharraf and find a true pro-U.S. general to lead Pakistan soon, it might face a much bigger threat than Iraq.

Musharraf faces a challenge inside Pakistan in balancing the interests of those opposed to his cooperation with Washington -- be they military or religious forces -- while at the same time keeping the country from the receiving end of U.S. guns and bombs. However, the coup rumors appear premature, and might instead reveal a desire by New Delhi to manipulate Washington's relationship with India's traditional nemesis: Pakistan.

India will not be alone in pursuing such schemes. As Washington gets closer to war with Iraq, other nations will try to exploit the expected U.S. tunnel vision -- hoping to press their own agendas and have the United States react without taking time to analyze and prepare contingency plans.

Contrary to the initial rumors out of New Delhi, Indian intelligence sources tell Stratfor that they have not seen new signs of an imminent coup in Pakistan, though they do suggest such a plan might be in the works six months or more down the road. According to these sources, there are two groups considering the overthrow of the Musharraf regime -- "hard-line" military officers and religiously motivated Pushtun officers.

The first group seeks to at least remove Musharraf from his position as Chief of Army Staff (COAS) and shift Pakistan's military alliances away from Washington and back toward other Muslim nations and China. Such a plot has not been discounted by Pakistani sources, who tell Stratfor that discontent in the military might lead some officers to try to sideline Musharraf, leaving him as president but taking away his military power.

The other group of potential coup plotters, Pushtun officers, are seeking -- according to Indian intelligence sources -- to rally other Islamist factions in Pakistan to overthrow Musharraf and place the country on a more fundamentalist Islamic course. This would mark a drastic change in Pakistani political succession, as previous coups all had military backing and were led by the COAS -- who in this case is Musharraf himself.

Khan's role in all of this, according to Indian intelligence sources, is as an as-of-yet uncommitted replacement for Musharraf as COAS, should the former group of generals succeed in replacing Musharraf as army chief. Khan, often referred to by Indian media as the "Islamic General," was a key facilitator in Musharraf's coup to overthrow former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Khan also was a key player in the Kargil conflict in the disputed territory of Kashmir, and is himself of Kashmiri ancestry.

Indian officials have long distrusted Khan, concerned that he would promote additional Pakistani adventurism in Kashmir. And, despite their close connections, Musharraf, too, grew concerned with Khan. On Oct. 8, 2001, Khan was promoted above other generals from his position as corps commander for Lahore to chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee.

The move, rather than a promotion, however, was intended to weaken Khan's powers and keep him under close observation. The JCS in Pakistan is a largely ceremonial position, whereas the corps commanders wield real power. On the same night, Musharraf sidelined the head of the Inter-Services Intelligence, another potential competitor.

Musharraf since has walked a fine line between appeasing three competing groups -- his restless generals, the Islamist factions and security personnel whose fates were tied closely to that of the Taliban and the United States, which offers the stark choice of cooperation or isolation and probable attack. New Delhi is increasingly anxious to end Washington's support for Musharraf, whom Indian officials say is doing little or nothing to stem cross-border attacks by Islamist militants and Kashmiri separatists.

For India, leaking rumors of a right-wing coup just as Washington prepares to engage Iraq is a low-cost gamble. At worst, no one listens. At best, Washington itself decides to remove Musharraf. Somewhere in the middle, Musharraf feels nervous and starts taking action against his own generals, particularly those that India sees as the greatest potential threat.

While it might all be wishful thinking on India's part, New Delhi's actions are representative of what other countries likely will do with increasing frequency as Washington is drawn deeper into preparations for and engagement in war in Iraq. Both nominal and close allies of the United States will use this time to try to catch Washington off-balance and distracted with Iraq in order to advance their own agendas. With the United States' focus growing tighter on Iraq, Washington might miscalculate on another issue -- taking the word of an ally at face value without taking time to fully analyze the situation and simply shooting from the hip.

Return To Top February 20, 2003

Pakistan's Geopolitical Future

By Major A.H. Amin

It is an accident of history that the English East India Company saved the Indian Muslims from Hindu/Sikh domination during the period 1771-1849.Had the British Company not intervened India may have been a totally Hhindu/Sikh dominated state. In 1803 General Lake liberated Delhi from the Maratha yoke and in 1849 the English East India Company saved the Punjabi and Pathan Muslims from the Sikhs who had turned many of the Muslim mosques into stables and gunpowder magazines in retaliation to what the Muslim Afghan invaders had done to many of the Sikh places of worship. This fact that the British saved the Muslims is not taught in any history text book in Pakistan !

Till 1857 however the Muslims remained the leaders of anti British movements notably in the Sepoy Rebellion of 1857-58 in which they were the prime leaders. After 1858 however the Muslim elite adopted the policy of "Loyalism" as enunciated and led by the famous Syed Ahmad Khan.The only significant break with this policy came during the failed Khilafat Movement after which again the Muslim political leadership remained aligned with the British while the Hindu dominated Congress remained in constant conflict with the British. In the WW Two Mr Jinnah’s policy of supporting military recruitment brought the Muslims closer to the British.

The state of Pakistan was created because the Muslim middle and higher classes were not comfortable about their political and economic future in post British independent India which was likely to be dominated by the majority Hindu population. The higher classes mostly feudals feared land reforms, the middle classes because they could not compete with the Hindus in competitive examinations and the smaller mercantile/business class because they could not compete with their non Muslim counter parts. Of the 87 Muslims who entered the Indian Civil Service between 1922 and 1943, 29 came through merit having succeeded in open competitive examinations while the remaining 58 had failed to qualify on merit in the examination but were nominated by the British to balance the communal quota.

Out of this combination of interests arose the Pakistan slogan , raised by Whiskey drinking, British educated gentleman ,Muslims by birth , ambitious by nature who thought after the infamous rout or defeat of the Muslim League in 1937 Elections in all Muslim majority provinces that the best option to arouse the Muslim masses was recourse to the old slogan "Islam in danger" ! The Muslim masses responded and the result was the Pakistan slogan , initially dismissed by Mr Jinnah as a mad students idea ! Pakistan was created by the vote of the Muslims galvanised in name of religion by leaders who started their careers as Indian nationalists or as British toadies but were driven to join the Muslim League because they had little political future in a Congress Party dominated by the Hindus ! The same was true for the various disparate elements which finally joined the Muslim League like the Punjabi Unionists a landlord party which feared Congress not because it was a Hindu party but because it stood for land reforms ! The Sindhi landlords again because they were heavily in debt with Hindu moneylenders and because of land reforms.

Religion as a slogan was misused by the Hindu leaders also and it was Gandhi who introduced religion in politics. In this case the Hindu middle and higher classes were ambitious for power and saw themselves as the natural successor of the British Viceroy. Thus while the motivation in case of the Muslim leadership was fear that they would not get even a small slice of power, the motivation in the Hindu leadership’s case was they wanted all the cake for themselves as they convincingly proved after they came to power after the 1937 Elections.

Mr Jinnah, the founder of Pakistan was clear that the new state needed US military support and asked for it in October 1947 when Pakistan’s Ambassador to USA requested for US military and economic assistance to the figure of 2 Billion US Dollar , one of the pretexts being that Pakistan "presently faced a Soviet threat on her northern frontier" ! The US State Department patiently listened to this request and politely replied that presently the US Government had no source of credit available to meet the administrative expenses of the Pakistani Government but asked for a more precise breakdown of the 2 Billion demand into specific requirements ! Soon came a reply that 700 Million US Dollar was required for Industries,700 Million for agriculture and 510 Million for building and equipping defence services. When the USA regretted its ability to cater for the requirement Mir Laik Ali the special envoy requested immediate loan of 45 million USD for blankets ! The US again declined to provide blankets apart from polite excuses that some may be given at some stage from the War Assets Administration.

Mr Jinnah’s successors continued his policy of courting the USA was continued by his successors , both military and political. Pakistan Army Chief Ayub during his visit to US A in May 1958 even volunteered to send a Pakistan Army Corps to serve US interests in Iran or elsewhere in the Middle East . A break in these relations came after the 1965 indo-Pak War but the USSR invasion and occupation of Afghanistan from 1979-89 again brought the Pakistani military leadership under the usurper Zia and USA close. The relations became successively colder after Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan but the Post 9/11 Scenario was a blessing for the Pakistani military leadership since it enabled them to serve once again as mercenaries for the USA and in return get paid in terms of financial aid just like Sepoy Jahan Khan was paid by the British to fight against the King’s Enemies.

With this short background we will proceed to analyse Pakistan’s political and military history in brief and analyse the present situation. The Indian Army before 1947 was a staunch British collaborator and had no role in any anti British agitation. The Indian Navy both Muslims and Hindus was the only force which defied the British in the Naval Mutiny of 1946.Thus the post 1947 Indian and Pakistan Armies had a strong tradition of conservatism and loyalty to the Western powers. In India Nehru put the Indian Army into its place and established civilian primacy. However in Pakistan thanks to political incompetence and the fact that the Muslim League the main political party which led Pakistan was a temporary marriage of disparate elements temporarily united on one platform simply because of fear of Hindu Congress, army under its first Muslim Chief usurped power in 1958. Ayub had no political ideology except self interest and during his rule the seeds of secession of East Pakistan were firmly planted. Ayub’s successor Yahya had no ideology again but came to the conclusion that the only way out for the country was to hold elections based on universal adult franchise. Yahya’s successor the first directly elected prime minister Bhutto had an Islamic Socialist ideology (however flawed or imperfect) and initiated policies which led to his deposition in a US inspired military coup by army chief Zia in 1977. Zia however also had an ideology and continued Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons acquisition programme initiated by Bhutto. Here Zia was saved because of USSR invasion of Afghanistan which enabled him to carry on Bhuttos Nuclear Policy since USA at this point in time could not afford to embark on an anti nuclear adventure in Pakistan. In the umbrella of supporting the anti Soviet War in Afghanistan Zia also initiated a policy of supporting an anti Indian Insurgency in Indian Occupied Kashmir. The policy was not new, dating from 1947 , but had been discontinued after the failed Operation Gibraltar of 1965. Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan led to Zia’s elimination in a mysterious air crash with possible US involvement.

During the post Zia period from 1988-2001 Zia’s policies of supporting an anti Indian insurrection in Kashmir and Islamists in Afghanistan was continued by the army in general and the intelligence agencies in particular. The motivation here was mixed. There was the ideological element, some genuine individuals earnestly motivated to fight for a just cause. There was a material element since many in the agencies had much to gain from covert operations in terms of funds siphoned into secret bank accounts! The policy of Low Intensity War thus continued till at least 9/11 affair.

Army chief Aslam Beg actively supported and carried on the policy of adventurism and termed it as one which provide Pakistan with strategic depth. His successor Asif Nawaz did not want to continue it but was unable to enforce his will since the policy had many adherents at multiple tiers of command and also had civilian support, if not at the government level then at the private level. By and large Asif Nawaz’s successors tacitly allowed the same to continue till General Musharraf came as the army chief.Musharraf went a step further once he executed the Kargil Affair in which regular army units were employed in an operation designed to internationalise the Kashmir Issue by threatening the Ladakh Road. The motivation here was basically to assert the army’s primacy which had been seriously challenged when civilian prime minister Nawaz Sharif had sacked army chief Jahangir Karamat. However in the decisive stages of the Kargil Crisis Musharraf lost his nerve and Pakistan had to withdraw. This in turn led to a conflict with the civilian authority as a result of which Musharraf usurped power on 12th October 1999.

Kargil was different from the ongoing Low Intensity War in Kashmir since it involved regular army units while the Kashmir War involves civilian volunteer guerrilla forces. Kargil involved infiltration in high altitude territory not manned in winters while the Kashmir War is a classic guerrilla war behind enemy lines. The Kargil Affair was an institutional endeavour conceived to re-assert the army’s primacy and to embarrass Pakistan’s own civilian leadership . Kargil was a miltary defeat of the Pakistan Army but became the catalyst which enabled General Musharraf to capture political power. Kargil was called off by a single order while the Kashmir War has such strong roots that no one in Pakistan can call it off by issuing a single operational instruction!

9/11 provided General Musharraf the rationale to attempt a volte face with the argument that adventurism in terms of supporting Low intensity wars is a threat to Pakistan’s security. However Musharraf’s pragmatism is not shared by a large section of people both in Pakistan and outside Pakistan. In Pakistan many in the civil and military quarters regard the post 9/11 policy of Musharraf as a sell out and an outright betrayal. Outside Pakistan many in USA and other G-8 countries regard Musharraf as a transitory leader and feel that Pakistan’s Nuclear potential must be destroyed.

It must be remembered that the present Pakistani political and military leadership has no ideology unlike its predecessors like Mr Bhutto or even General Zia. The military leadership consists of middle class or lower middle people who have done well in this world , having risen from humble origins into the moneyed class and are supreme pragmatists. The politcal elite again consists of disparate elements united by ambition and ones who would collaborate with any one to retain their power or privileges! Even the Indians or any power that matters! The tradition of defying the army as set by Mr Z.A Bhutto was abandoned by his daughter once she agreed share power with the army and the army nominated president in 1988.Her successor Nawaz Sharif was again an army groomed man and had no ideology except self interest. True that he later on in his second term tried to assert power , sacked an army chief but was removed by the second army chief.

The fact is that Pakistan is now led by pragmatists who have no ideology since 1988. Initially these pragmatists were unable to restrain the ideologically motivated elements in both the armed forces and in the populace but 9/11 has been a watershed in Pakistan’s history. The Zia military regime was ironically forced into adopting an ideological line not simply because Zia was a religious man but because the geopolitical situation at that time forced them to do so. Today the same act is being repeated in a reverse direction i.e the geopolitical situation is forcing the Pakistani leadership to abandon ideology! The first was albeit a positive trend. The second being done now is a negative step. A country created on the basis of an ideology cannot abandon ideology!

The Pakistani state though outwardly stable is most fragile geopolitically at this stage. The army has destroyed all integrity and cohesion left in the politicians, judiciary and the people. Opportunism in politics has reached heights hitherto unknown! While there was a Z.A Bhutto in 1971 to save the country once the army had lost the war, today in case of military defeat there is no politician worth his salt who can restore stability. Musharraf’s team although outwardly sound has no great men, since the Indo Pak armies ensure mediocrity in higher ranks. All the top brass is busy in pursuing personalised agendas.

Now some strategic turning points. Kargil operation launched by Musharraf and the subsequent withdrawal under Vajpayee’s threat proved that Nuclear power is no guarantee that India would not embark on limited wars. The fact that one phone call from Bush reduced the entire military junta into docile school boys again proves that Pakistan has no more sovereignty left.

With this bleak background there is little hope of Pakistan’s future as a strategically independent state who can resist the fall out of Bush’s war against terrorism.

The USA will strike at a time and place of its own choosing and would use Musharaf’s ouster as a pretext to reduce Pakistan to size ,destroying the country’s nuclear potential and reducing it to a South American Banana Republic. What would be the left ?The politicians who sit in Pakistan’s National Assembly can be bought or coerced with a few million rupees. They are descendants of collaborators and their life script is no ideology or any grand idea but personal fortune building!

The story of the Pakistani state is a story of various generals pursuing personalised agendas, creating politician test tube babies and tolerating them till they remained docile! Men from humble backgrounds climbing up the social ladder jumping from old Morris cars into Mercedes and BMW’s. There is neither ideology, nor constitution, nor any military talent or political acumen left. To compound the contradictions while the well off drink and womanise on the house the common man is persecuted by police thugs for drinking local booze and dating with a sweet heart won after an year’s hard work !

What are the options available? Since the successive military regimes have systematically destroyed constitutions, political organisation and intellectual freedom there is little hope for reform. The current of history would now take its own course. Defeat in war or slow decay, Balkanisation, anarchy, civil war, all these may be round the corner. Out of this chaos a new order would emerge. Ideology mixed with ethnicity. Some city states, some free ports, part Somalia, part Ethiopia, part Panama, many things but nothing inspiring.

Return To Top February 20, 2003

February 19, 2003

Are the War Delays Over?
Russian Citizens Start Leaving Iraq
Statement on Iraq By A Former UNSCOM Inspector
NATO makes end run around France on defense of Turkey February 18
101st gears up to ship out to Persian Gulf February 18
Hamas chief killed in Gaza operation Februaru 18
Iraq-al Qaeda Partnership to Target Gulf Oil Fields February 17
Uday Hussain's Aide Defects February 16
Nato 'leaks' secrets to woo France, Germany, Belgium February 16
Iran's hardliners renew death edict on Rushdie February 16
New Plan to Land US Troops Deep Inside IraqFebruary 15


Editor's Note

Our reader who opined that the US 3rd ACR was a more logical candidate for Iraq instead of the US 2nd ACR [a light unit] has been shown right with the announcement that the former unit has been ordered to deploy to the Gulf. The 3rd ACR is a very powerful brigade sized unit with a combination of tanks, helicopters, Cavalry Fighting Vehicles, and SP artillery. It is composed of four "squadrons", a US cavalry squadron being equal to a battlion or a regiment in most armies.

Are the War Delays Over?

For full story click Debka

The muddle and uncertainty that have in the last three days confused perceptions surrounding the Iraq War in European and Middle East capitals are making way for some clarity. The pendulum can now be clearly seen to be veering towards “on” rather than “off”. It is also possible to discern which reports swirling around the airwaves were designed to mislead.

DEBKAfile’s military sources in Washington now maintain that, despite reports to the contrary, President George W. Bush has finally resolved to launch military action against Iraq on schedule. Here are some examples of reports that sowed uncertainty:

1. Because of logistical difficulties, the Americans have not yet attained the optimum level of troop strength for going to war at their jumping off bases. Our sources maintain that the strength present equals the assigned figure.

2. Turkey’s refusal to allow US troops bound for northern Iraq to cross its territory will delay the offensive. DEBKAfile’s Washington sources reveal that Washington presented Ankara with a 48-hour ultimatum to agree to terms for its participation in the conflict or count itself out, in which case the Americans will send their army into northern Iraq by another route. The US Treasury will also save itself a large sum in aid. In any case, since the leaders of Iraqi Kurdistan are part of the US-led coalition, the US war command will only need enough troops to capture the northern Iraqi oil cities of Mosul and Kirkuk and surrounding oil fields - not the entire region. Those American columns can enter Iraq by way of Jordan.

3. As for the urgency of the US-UK second Security Council resolution, its only importance for the US president is as a means of drawing some of the sting from the anti-war backlash preying on such war allies as Tony Blair. Privately, Bush has washed his hands of the world body. When the time comes, he intends to settle scores with the UN as well as with Germany, France and Russia for behavior which he sees as leaving America in the lurch.

Return To Top February 19, 2003

Russian citizens start leaving Iraq

FromJang of Pakistan.

MOSCOW: Russia has begun evacuating its citizens from Iraq, a news agency reported on Tuesday. The ITAR-Tass news agency cited diplomatic sources in Cairo as saying the evacuation had begun. It said more than 1,000 Russian citizens were in Iraq. The Foreign Ministry and several companies working in Iraq said they could not immediately confirm the report. Whether or not to evacuate "is the Foreign Ministry's prerogative", said Dmitry Dolgov, a spokesman for oil company Lukoil. He said a contingency plan coordinated by the Russian Embassy in Baghdad was in place but that he knew of no decision to activate it.

Russian media reported that Russian companies held a meeting on Tuesday in Baghdad and decided to evacuate. Many foreign embassies, earlier, pulled out non-essential staff and urged citizens to leave, but Russia, which opposes a military operation and has strong economic ties with Iraq, had so far stuck firm. Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said late last month that there were about 700 Russian "specialists" in Iraq.

Tuesday's reports came a day after a delegation of several dozen Russian lawmakers including Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov, scholars and journalists arrived in Iraq for a three-day visit.

Return To Top February 19, 2003

Statement on Iraq By A Former UNSCOM Inspector

Reader Gerry Hol forwards this to us with a comment:

” I'm not quite sure what to make of this but before making a judgement yourself, consider the background of the author detailed at the end of the statement.”

"Here's Your Smoking Gun: Iraqi Nukes"

Statement by Bill Tierney, former UNSCOM Iraqi ArmsInspector, Camp X-Ray interrogator/interpreter, and intelligence analyst

CHICAGO (February 14, 2003)-- I have seen enough to convince me that the Iraqis do have nukes, and I know exactly where they enriched the uranium to do so. Forsome time now, experts have said Iraq is moving towards a nuclear weapon. Secretary of State Powell emphasized Saddam's intense desire to obtain a nuclear weapon in his presentation before the Security Council.

Just how much time must pass before people are willing to say the Iraqis have arrived? Even the skeptics admit that the lingering obstacle has been accumulating enough enriched uranium for a weapon. Without unambiguous evidence, most commentators are unwilling to make the call that the Iraqis have nukes. As a former inspector and intelligence analyst involved with nominating inspection targets, allow me to lay out my case that the Iraqis have succeeded.

As groundwork, the Iraqis successfully ran a nuclear weapons development program during the eighties and hid it not only from the International Atomic EnergyAgency (IAEA), but Western intelligence agencies as well. We know and appreciate how skilled they are at concealment.

Shortly after the start of weapons inspections in1991, the Iraqis went to extraordinary efforts to move uranium enrichment equipment, specifically electro-magnetic isotope separation (EMIS) using calutrons, away from inspectors. I will refer to this as the Kay Inspection, after David Kay, the chief inspector on the ground. The Iraqis claimed to have unilaterally destroyed this equipment, but KhidrHamza, formerly a nuclear weapons designer, stated in his book "Saddam's Bombmaker," that Iraq has the machine tools to easily rebuild this uraniumenrichment equipment.

In 1996, during an inspection of Tuwaitha Nuclear Weapon Research Facility, the Iraqis attempted todrive a vehicle past a checkpoint with a document fromthe Iraqi Revolutionary Command Council. This documentreferred to mysterious coded projects. After we foundthe document, the Iraqis first tried to wrest it awayin a tug of war, then managed to regain the documentthrough another counter-inspection tactic. This is anincredible amount of effort to hide information fromUNSCOM. Tuwaitha is the workshop for constructing thebomb.

In September 1997, I took part in an interviewinspection regarding the movement and concealment of uranium enrichment equipment from the Kay Inspection. Scott Ritter had identified units and personnel involved with the concealment. Instead of providing these personnel, the Iraqis sent senior officers ofthe Special Republican Guards (SRG), along with intelligence officers and Jaffar Dhia Jaffar, head ofthe "atomic energy" program. These officers attempted to pass off a pathetic cover story, which was promptly shredded. Scott then explained what actually happened,and that he believed the Iraqis still had the nuclear enrichment equipment. The Iraqis attempted to hide their panic.

The 4th Special Republican Guard Battalion was the unit that moved the nuclear enrichment equipment awayf rom the Kay Inspection. I inspected this unit with Scott Ritter in June of 1997. The Iraqis held us upfor a long period before allowing entry, while their minder in the UNSCOM helicopter caused a diversion by lunging for the flight controls.

Amir Al-Saadi, our high level escort, removed any mention of the unit commander during the time of theK ay Inspection, knowing that we would request tointerview him. After the inspection, I learned that the Iraqis were extremely concerned that we would attempt to inspection a nearby, unnamed, location.They would not allow us in under any circumstances.

From having been on the inspection, I knew this information was referring to Jabal Makhul Presidential Site. This is an extremely large site that takes up aswath of the Hamrin Mountain range. Its location makes it perfect for drilling deep tunnels into the side of the mountain. We inspected this site in September1997. General Muhammad Amir Rashid, a senior advisorto Saddam, drove 140 miles from Baghdad to the site, got out of his car, stated "there will be no inspection of this facility," got back in his car and drive off - completely against protocol.

In 2001, the London Sunday Times published an article by Gwynne Roberts on an Iraqi defector who claimed theIraqis had several nuclear weapons in a heavily guarded bunker under the Hamrin Mountains. Jabal Makhul Presidential Site is the most heavily guarded location in the Hamrin Mountains. From the additional detail provided by this source, I knew in my gut that this information was true. This explains why theIraqis almost crashed the helicopter during the inspection at the 4th SRG Battalion - to keep it from going over the mountain to inspect the inside of Jabal Makhul Presidential Site. The Iraqis may still storethe weapons there, although any sensitive items were probably moved out before the presidential site" inspection" of March 1998, then again before thel atest round of inspections.

So if the Iraqis do have nukes, where did they enrich the uranium? I believe the answer lies beneath what appears to the World as a power generation station for a water treatment plant in the vicinity of 3337North04420East. A number of indicators point to this facility as a uranium enrichment processing lant. I do not have authority to discuss these indicators.

Further investigation of this facility with technical intelligence means revealed inconsistencies with a normal power generation plant. High-tension powerlines lead to the plant, but if it is not producing electricity, then the wires could provide electricity needed for the uranium enrichment. Electro-magnetic isotope separation's major disadvantage is the large amount of electricity required.

A foreign contractor started to build this water treatment plant after the Gulf War, but halted half way through on the Iraqis' request. This allowed theIraqis to document the "benign" intent of the facility, only later to finish it to the specifications required for a uranium enrichment plant.

In addition, this water treatment plant is only a few miles south and on the same side of the river atTarmiya nuclear weapons research facility. Tarmiya was discovered to be the center for EMIS after the war. Workers could drive their cars to Tarmiya and then take a shuttle bus to where they really worked. U.S.satellites would see activity at Tarmiya, with only a car or two at the water treatment plant. In addition,it is in a very pro-Saddam and secure area of Iraq.

After the hue and cry of civilian suffering from damage to water treatment plants after the Gulf War,what better place than a water treatment plant to hidea nuclear weapons facility?

This facility was installed in approximately 1996. Did it run, or was it just being prepared for operations after the sanctions? I believe the Iraqis' steadfast refusal to allow random airborne radiation monitoring indicates that the facility has been active.

The water treatment plant was inspected three times inthe early nineties, but never to check on anunder ground chamber under the power generation plant.On one inspection, the team examined a liquid nitrogen plant near the water treatment plant because they suspected a connection to Tarmiya Nuclear Research Facility. Nitrogen is used as an EMIS diffusion pumpcoolant. The inspectors' concern was a connection toTarmiya, but the nitrogen was really intended for thenearby under-ground EMIS plant.

I brought this to the attention of WMD analysts within the U.S. government, but they were not interested, based on the no findings from the previous UNSCOM/IAEAinspections. I disagree with their assessment.

Why make this public? Won't the Iraqis just scramble and move everything before the inspectors arrive? They may get some or all of the machined parts out, but there is no way they can fit an underground chamber onthe back of a truck. They probably won't be able to mask radiation either.

Furthermore, it is possible that if the inspections run their course without investigating these sites, and Saddam faces a military attack, he could announce then that he has nuclear weapons as a means to deterour invasion of Iraq.

Mr. Blix, Mr. Baradei, please inspect within the area circled on the accompanying map. Look for a chimney or the remnants thereof, follow the power lines, and check for a ramped entrance. The ramp will be concealed against overhead detection. Your ground-penetrating radar teams should be able to find it. If I am wrong, then it will only mean three hours and a few gallons of gasoline lost. Please inspect this site.

--Bill Tierney

Mr. Tierney is a former UNSCOM inspector and intelligence analyst at Central Command HQ. He currently works as an international background investigator for Owens OnLine, Inc.

Background on Bill Tierney:

The Wall Street Journal tentatively accepted ane ditorial by Mr. Tierney scheduled to run in theFriday, Feb. 14, 2003 edition, but made an eleventh hour decision not to run it.

Bill Tierney entered the Army in 1983 after studying classical guitar at the Hartt School of Music and the Royal Conservatory, Madrid Spain.

Trained in Arabic language and Iraqi dialect (honor graduate) and interrogation

Became warrant officer in 1990.

Participated in Gulf War as liaison officer to Saudis,Kuwaitis, and Egyptians. Was interrogator duringg round offensive phase.

Obtained Master Degree in Middle East Studies - Arabic in 1993.

Led counterintelligence team at Haitian Refugee Camp, Guantanamo Bay, Cuba 1994.

Stationed at Central Command HQ 1995 as command interpreter, intelligence analyst, and targeting specialist.

Participated in nine UNSCOM inspections 1996 - 1998,most focused on the Iraqi concealment mechanism.

Left the Army in July 2000.

Worked as linguist at Prince Sultan Air Base, SaudiArabia August 2000 to Sept., 2001.

Worked as interpreter/interrogator at Camp X-RayGuantanamo Bay January, Feb., 2002

Hired as international background investigator, compliance officer, sales and marketing, project officer with Owens Online, Inc. Tampa FL August 2002.

Travel to Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Iraq.

Return To Top February 19, 2003

February 18, 2003

NATO makes end run around France on defense of Turkey
101st gears up to ship out to Persian Gulf
Hamas chief killed in Gaza operation
Iraq-al Qaeda Partnership to Target Gulf Oil Fields February 17
Uday Hussain's Aide Defects February 16
Nato 'leaks' secrets to woo France, Germany, Belgium February 16
Iran's hardliners renew death edict on Rushdie February 16
New Plan to Land US Troops Deep Inside IraqFebruary 15
Afghan warlords face world criminal court prosecution February 15
Militants fire rockets, coalition drops bombs in Afghanistan February 15
Belgium and World Order February 15


February 18, 2003

NATO makes end run around France on defense of Turkey

From the San Francisco Chronicle

Brussels -- Resolving a bitter dispute that pitted the United States against France and Germany over military plans on Iraq, NATO agreed on Sunday night to an American request to supply Turkey with equipment to defend itself in the event of a war to overthrow Saddam Hussein…

The dispute was resolved when it was agreed to have the military staff of the NATO Defense Planning Council, which does not include France, make plans for Turkey's defense, specifically by sending AWACS air reconnaissance planes, Patriot missiles and chemical and biological warfare defense teams to Turkey.

France had objected to such a step on the grounds that the Security Council has not yet authorized the use of force against Iraq. Shifting the decision to the Planning Council rather than NATO itself was a way of circumventing French opposition.

Germany went along with the compromise, and the last holdout, Belgium, agreed to go along under pressure from other NATO members, dropping its long- held demand that any NATO decision be linked to authorization of force by the Security Council.

After Sunday night's announcement, France, Germany and Belgium issued a joint statement reiterating their opposition to military action unless it is authorized by the council.

Despite the NATO breakthrough, there were no signs Sunday that the council dispute was closer to being resolved. U.S. National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice once again warned that the Bush administration wanted the council to authorize the use of force within "weeks, not months" if Iraq continued to fail to comply on weapons inspections.

Return To Top February 18, 2003

101st gears up to ship out to Persian Gulf

Extracts from Stars & Stripes

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — It’s crunch time for soldiers of the Army’s 101st Airborne Division, who, on orders to deploy to the Middle East, have worked double time to ship out their helicopters and equipment from Blount Island, Fla., to the Persian Gulf.

Crews on Thursday loaded the decks of transporters USNS Bob Hope and USNS Dahl, anchored at the Blount Island port terminal, with a portion of the air assault division’s supply of vehicles and 275 helicopters.

Key to the arrangement was ensuring that all of the division’s 75 Apache attack helicopters make it out on the first two ships of what will be roughly five or six needed to get the entire division overseas, said Brig. Gen. Edward Sinclair, assistant division commander of the 101st, stationed at Fort Campbell, Ky…

It’ll take about three weeks for the vessels to reach the Persian Gulf. The Dahl was set to sail Friday; the Bob Hope on Saturday.

The majority of the 20,000 air-assault soldiers of the 101st will be flying over in the next few weeks. Some will travel on the ships to maintain the equipment and provide force protection.

The use of the $298-million apiece LMSRs directly is linked to the experienced failures of the Persian Gulf War, in which the Army was too slow getting there and when they did, didn’t have access to some equipment, Thompson said.

Following the war, the Navy and Army teamed up to develop and buy larger vessels that now accommodate 2½ times more cargo and travel almost twice as fast.

But they’re still not quite fast enough, Thompson said.

“Speed is where we’re headed, and that’s part of the transformation,” he said. “Ideally, it would be, ‘beam me up, Scotty.’”

While owned by the Navy, the Navy Military Sealift Command contracts civilians to operate the inventory of 18 transport vessels. The Navy has 170 noncombatant ships crewed by civilians, spokeswoman Marge Holtz said.

Return To Top February 18, 2003

Hamas chief killed in Gaza operation

Extracts from By Ha’aretz

…Riyad Abu Zid, the military commander of the Hamas, was killed yesterday southwest of Bureij refugee camp when he tried to resist arrest by an elite army unit that sprang a surprise checkpoint to make the arrest. Also yesterday, two Palestinian gunmen were killed and four other wounded trying to block a home demolition, that of the man the army says is responsible for Saturday's deadly attack on the tank.

On Sunday, six Hamas operatives were killed while handling a mysterious unmanned plane they planned to use to deliver a bomb inside Israel.

The IDF Spokesman said that in the death yesterday of Abu Zid, he had opened fire on the soldiers who tried to stop his car outside the camp, and they returned fire. A helicopter was brought in to medivac him to Soroka Hospital in Be'er Sheva, but he was declared dead on arrival at the hospital. Army sources emphasized the aim was to arrest - not kill - him, in the operation, so he could be interrogated about the Hamas command structure in Gaza. The army said Abu Zid had planned to set in motion a series of suicide bombings and car bombings inside the Green Line.

The 33-year-old Abu Zid was named head of the Hamas military wing last year after two previous commanders were taken out of action by IDF operations. One, Salah Shehadeh, considered the founder of the Hamas military wing, was killed when an F-15 dropped a half-ton bomb on the house where he was hiding out in a crowded Gaza City neighborhood. A dozen other people were killed in that action.

Mohammed Deif, long considered the most wanted man on Israel's list of terrorists, was gravely wounded in an operation that followed, when Deif assumed command of Iz a Din al-Kassam, the Hamas military wing.

Deif was spotted yesterday at the funeral for the six Hamas men killed on Sunday. He vowed vengeance for their deaths and that of Abu Zid and promised more suicide bombings, Qassam rockets, and other attacks, "to let Sharon know he can't get away with this," according to a Channel Two TV news report that showed Deif in a mask, with only his eyes visible. He was walking with a pronounced limp. Military sources say he is now blind in one eye and his hearing has been impaired after he survived an IDF missile attack on his car last summer.

Abu Zid has been involved in intifada activity going back to October 1990, when he participated in the lynch of a reservist who lost his way in Bureij. He was sentenced to nine years in prison and was released in 1999, becoming the personal assistant to Shehadeh.

Army sources said yesterday the IDF would continue its campaign with a series of operations in the Strip in response to the attack on the tank. The sources admit that after the tank attack, Israel has dropped some of the constraints that it had self-imposed in advance of American action in Iraq. The sources said the army is now undertaking broad operations, including "pinpoint prevention" - assassinations - deep inside Palestinian territory in Gaza. Other activities, including arrests and house demolitions, are expected in the near future, along with armored corps and infantry incursions.

Return To Top February 18, 2003

Iraq-al Qaeda Partnership to Target Gulf Oil Fields

Debka for fulla rticle.

[Debka says US special forces and marines, supported by and UK and Jordanian special forces, have completed the conquest of west Iraq, in part to prevent destruction of the oil wells. Editor]

Blix-ElBaradei arms inspection reports to the UN Security Council on their Iraq mission get briefer, more non-committal and less related to reality on the ground. Not surprisingly, their latest “findings” as presented on Friday, February 14, failed to dent established views; the advocates and the opponents of military action against Iraq remained in exactly the same positions as before.

The same fate will most likely befall the arms inspectors’ next report, scheduled for February 28, after another two weeks’ grace.

Dragging the inspection process from one loudly heralded and widely televised appearance to the next will increasingly exacerbate the transatlantic rift, weaken the arguments for war as perceived by world opinion (Tony Blair may be the first political casualty of this trend), and play into Saddam Hussein’s hands, the while further undercutting the United Nations’ reputation for coming to grips with world crises.

The United Nations is further challenged now by the prime...

Return To Top February 17, 2003

February 17, 2003


Iraq-al Qaeda Partnership to Target Gulf Oil Fields
Uday Hussain's Aide Defects February 16
Nato 'leaks' secrets to woo France, Germany, Belgium February 16
Iran's hardliners renew death edict on Rushdie February 16
New Plan to Land US Troops Deep Inside IraqFebruary 15
Afghan warlords face world criminal court prosecution February 15
Militants fire rockets, coalition drops bombs in Afghanistan February 15
Belgium and World Order February 15

Iraq-al Qaeda Partnership to Target Gulf Oil Fields

Debka for fulla rticle.

[Debka says US special forces and marines, supported by and UK and Jordanian special forces, have completed the conquest of west Iraq, in part to prevent destruction of the oil wells. Editor]

Blix-ElBaradei arms inspection reports to the UN Security Council on their Iraq mission get briefer, more non-committal and less related to reality on the ground. Not surprisingly, their latest “findings” as presented on Friday, February 14, failed to dent established views; the advocates and the opponents of military action against Iraq remained in exactly the same positions as before.

The same fate will most likely befall the arms inspectors’ next report, scheduled for February 28, after another two weeks’ grace.

Dragging the inspection process from one loudly heralded and widely televised appearance to the next will increasingly exacerbate the transatlantic rift, weaken the arguments for war as perceived by world opinion (Tony Blair may be the first political casualty of this trend), and play into Saddam Hussein’s hands, the while further undercutting the United Nations’ reputation for coming to grips with world crises.

The United Nations is further challenged now by the prime...

Return To Top February 17, 2003

February 16, 2003


Uday Hussain's Aide Defects
Nato 'leaks' secrets to woo France, Germany, Belgium
Iran's hardliners renew death edict on Rushdie
New Plan to Land US Troops Deep Inside Iraq February 15
Afghan warlords face world criminal court prosecution February 15
Militants fire rockets, coalition drops bombs in Afghanistan February 15
Belgium and World Order February 15
Arabs Ignore Bin Laden War Call February 14
Air Strategy for War "Timid" February 14

Uday Hussein’s Aide Defects

Debka

Adib Shaaban, the right hand of Saddam Hussein’s powerful son Uday, has defected.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly reports exclusively that this key member of Saddam Hussein’s administration, who was charged with his son’s most sensitive missions, traveled to Jeddah at the beginning of this week, saying he needed to put through some gold transactions ahead of the war.

From Jeddah, he flew to Beirut and… disappeared.

US intelligence sources report that Shaaban never really went to Beirut. He made his way under cover to Damascus Monday and was picked up by an unmarked plane for an unknown destination.

As Uday’s closest aide, he also managed a chain of official publications, including the authoritative Babel, and was in on the Saddam regime’s deepest secrets.

Uday commands the secret army known as Saddam’s Fedayeen, the backbone of Baghdad’s defenses and custodian of the weapons of mass destruction that were not smuggled out to Lebanon.

Uday is also the chief of the ruling Baath Party’s covert service.

Shaaban must therefore be a veritable treasury of Saddam Hussein’s secrets. In American hands, Uday’s chef de bureau would be even more valuable than the proverbial smoking gun.

Return To Top February 16, 2003

Nato 'leaks' secrets to woo France, Germany, Belgium

By Zia Iqbal Shahid. For the complete story, click Jang.

[Editor’s note: this story is a bit odd. Surely as members of NATO France, Germany and Belgium have access to all NATO intelligence. Perhaps the story means to say the US has given information to NATO to try and convince the recalcitrant members.]

BRUSSELS: The Nato sources, to save the 19-nation military alliance from a total annihilation, have undertaken to leak some classified, confidential and top secret intelligence reports detailing military movements of Saddam Hussein and indicating Turkey's vulnerability in the wake of Iraq crisis.

Several indicators are available in Brussels suggesting that the Nato has adopted the course, what is called "calculative leak" by revealing some top secret, classified and sensitive intelligence information to emphasise the gravity of the situation in its pursuit to convince France, Germany and Belgium that military planning to support Turkey is direly needed.

Two separate incidents of leaking intelligence information contain a "memo" by Nato Chief George Robertson addressed to the France, Germany and Belgium trio.

Return To Top February 16, 2003

Iran's hardliners renew death edict on Rushdie

Times of India

Iran's hardliners have renewed the death edict on India-born British author Salman Rushdie issued 14 years ago by the late founder of the Islamic Republic Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, saying the sentence was "irrevocable."

The hardline Revolutionary Guards, directly answerable to Iran's current Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said the "fatwa" issued in 1989 following the publication of Rushdie's controversial novel The Satanic Verses was still valid.

"The historical decree on Salman Rushdie is irrevocable and nothing can change it," said a statement by the military organisation, published on Friday to pay tribute to the Iranian people for their massive participation in the demonstration marking the 24th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution victory.

In the statement quoted by the official Iranian news agency IRNA, the hardline organisation said the late Khomeini had well seized the threats posed to the Islamic Revolution and it was based on his divine missions that he issued the edict against Rushdie.

Iran's current president, the moderate Mohammad Khatami, has said the death sentence should be seen as closed. However, hardliners within the Iranian Republic have occasionally renewed their call for Rushdie's death for writing a novel, which they have denounced as blasphemous.

This has continued despite the Iranian government publicly committing itself in 1998 to not carrying out the death sentence, a decision which led to the signing of a deal between Iran and Britain to normalise relations.

Return To Top February 16, 2003

February 15, 2003


New Plan to Land US Troops Deep Inside Iraq
Afghan warlords face world criminal court prosecution
Militants fire rockets, coalition drops bombs in Afghanistan
Belgium and World Order
Arabs Ignore Bin Laden War Call February 14
Air Strategy for War "Timid" February 14
Iraq February 13
China Sending peacekeepers to Congo February 13
Turkey asks for talks on thwarted aid bid February 12
Iraq Placing Explosives Around Oil Wells February 12
South Korea Believes North Has No Nukes February 12
Why Hussein sees history on his side February 12
Coalition warplanes bomb Afghan cavesFebruary 12
Debka Argues The Old World Order Is Ending February 11
London Guardian February 14, 2003

New Plan To Land First US Troops Deep Inside Iraq

Pentagon plans blitzkrieg to stop Saddam from destroying oil fields and dams

Forwarded by Joseph Stefula, an article by Julian Borger. For full story click The Guardian.

Under new US war plans, thousands of helicopter-borne troops and paratroopers would be flown deep into Iraq to seize oilfields, dams and banned weapons, and advance as far as Baghdad on the first day of the fighting, Pentagon officials and defence analysts said yesterday.

President George Bush met his top field commander, General Tommy Franks, yesterday to review plans quite unlike those used in the last Gulf war. That began with weeks of aerial bombardment, but the US suspicion that Saddam Hussein will try to wreck his country rather than surrender, dictates that ground troops would be involved in the fighting on the same day as the air force or even before.

"I think the targets will be aimed at decapitation," one US defence official said in a briefing. "You want to take away all his capabilities to respond with any WMD [weapons of mass destruction]. You don't want him to blow his dams, set fire to oilfields, or fire Scud missiles at neighbouring countries. You also want to put him immediately in a box in Baghdad and Tikrit."

The US currently has more than 130,000 troops in the Gulf, including some special forces already inside Iraq preparing airfields and communications. There will be six aircraft carriers including the Royal Navy's Ark Royal and 500 US air force planes in the region by the end of this month. Starting this week, 3,000 soldiers a day are being flown to the area on chartered civilian planes to ratchet up the pressure on Baghdad.

Return To Top February 15, 2003

A story by Naveed Ahmad. For full story click Jang.

ISLAMABAD: Afghan warlords who commit future atrocities can now face prosecution by the new International Criminal Court (ICC), Human Rights Watch said, as now Afghanistan has deposited its accession to the ICC Treaty at the United Nations.

Under ICC provisions, the treaty will take force in Afghanistan on May 1, 2003. After that date, the ICC will have the authority to investigate and prosecute serious war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity committed on Afghan soil.

Human Rights observers believe, "For over two decades, perpetrators of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Afghanistan have enjoyed total impunity. On May 1, that impunity will formally end."

The Afghan regime is also earning widespread appluase for "tremendously courageous" step of the cabinet to ratify the ICC treaty. "It is an important step not only for Afghanistan, but for improving justice worldwide," obserrvers believe.

Return To Top February 15, 2003

Militants fire rockets, coalition drops bombs in Afghanistan

For full story click Jang

BAGRAM, Afghanistan: Suspected Taliban remnants fired rockets into a town in southern Afghanistan on Friday, as US-led coalition planes carried out more raids on militant hideouts, officials said.

An Afghan security official said two rockets landed in the town of Spin Boldak on the Afghan-Pakistan border early in the morning, while another landed near a Pakistani border post.

He said Taliban remnants could have been responsible for the attacks, which did not cause any casualties or damage.

Coalition planes in a pre-dawn raid on Friday destroyed caves in the southwestern province of Helmand where military officials said up to 100 men suspected of being linked to the ousted Taliban were holed up. A US military spokesman said an AC-130 gunship, B-1 bomber and A-10 aircraft attacked the caves in Baghran valley in Helmand province where an ambush of US Special Forces this week triggered the latest bombing raids.

Return To Top February 15, 2003

Belgium and world order

Editorial from Israel’s Haartez

The Belgian Supreme Court this week accepted an appeal by survivors of the Sabra and Chatila refugee camp massacres in September 1982, ruling that Israelis who do not have diplomatic immunity may be put on trial. The decision applies to those who were senior officers in the Israel Defense Forces at the time - the chief of staff, the theater commander, the divisional commander. It also applies to then defense minister Ariel Sharon, once the immunity he has by virtue of being prime minister lapses.

This judicial decision is rather astounding, as the Belgian prosecution also noted in its opposition to the survivors' petition. What is the connection between Belgium and the atrocities committed by Phalangists in Beirut, in terrority for which the IDF - acting on behalf of the Israeli government - was responsible? The prosecution had argued that for there to be grounds for trying someone suspected of crimes against humanity, some connection with Belgium was necessary.

Belgium's status is no different from that of any other sovereign state, and it is entitled to enact laws and judge its own citizens, or anyone who commits crimes against them. But the Belgian legislature has elevated its country's justice system above those of every other nation, and is trying to impose its rule on the citizens of countries with no connection to Belgium.

Israel has pursued and captured those guilty of crimes against humanity whose victims were members of its own nation, people who later became its citizens. Its laws forbid similar crimes and acts of massacre and murder. Policemen and soldiers accused of such crimes have been tried, and have not infrequently been convicted and served their sentences. Public outrage forced Menachem Begin's government - that same government that decided to deploy the IDF in West Beirut following the murder of Bashir Gemayel - to set up a state commission of inquiry. Its three members included both the sitting Supreme Court president, Yitzhak Kahan, and a future Supreme Court president, Aharon Barak.

Furthermore, the government almost unanimously adopted this commission's conclusions and recommendations, including firing Sharon as defense minister and limiting the tenures of senior officers. The indirect responsibility attributed by the commission to Sharon and others in no way reduced the direct and substantial responsibility borne by the Phalangists and others in Lebanon. But the proceedings in Belgium are not directed against them; they are aimed only at the Israelis.

The world order established in the wake of the Allied victory in World War II is based on the United Nations and the International Court of Justice in The Hague. Last year, an International Criminal Court with authority to try war crimes was also established, but it is not authorized to judge crimes committed before its establishment.

But there is no middle level, on which a particular country judges its neighbors' leaders, between the local justice systems of the UN's member states and the international justice system. It never occurred to Israel, for instance, to put on trial in Jerusalem Belgians suspected of being involved in massacring natives during that country's colonial occupation of the Congo.

The political background to the Belgian effort to put Ariel Sharon on trial is transparent and worrying, and it will certainly cast a heavy shadow on relations between Belgium and Israel. But it seems that the arrogance that prompted Belgium's assumption of the right to judge Israeli politicians and officers will in the end come back to haunt it. The presumption of the Belgian parliament, which enacted the universal jurisdiction law, is liable to destroy not only the Belgian legal system, but also its ties with the other nations in the world.

Return To Top February 15, 2003

February 14, 2003

Arabs Ignore Bin Laden War Call
Air Strategy for War "Timid"
Consultations on measures to protect Turkey February 13
Tenet: North Korea has ballistic missile capable of hitting U.S. February 13
U.S., Coalition Plan to Restore Post-War Iraq February 13
Turkey asks for talks on thwarted aid bid February 12
Iraq Placing Explosives Around Oil Wells February 12
South Korea Believes North Has No Nukes February 12
Why Hussein sees history on his side February 12
Coalition warplanes bomb Afghan caves February 12

Arabs ignore bin Laden war call

By David R. Sands: for full story click Washington Times

Arab and other Muslim governments yesterday brushed aside a new tape by Osama bin Laden calling for a regionwide Islamic war against the West, and Saddam Hussein's regime said the United States was unfairly using the tape to link Iraq to bin Laden's al Qaeda terror network.

Few Middle East governments offered any official response to the new 16-minute bin Laden tape, broadcast Tuesday on the Qatar-based Al Jazeera network and considered authentic by U.S. intelligence officials.

In the call to arms, bin Laden said Muslims should rise against any U.S.-led military strike on Iraq and "liberate renegade ruling regimes" in Jordan, Morocco, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Yemen.

Saudi Interior Minister Nayef Ibn Abdul-Aziz said his agency had picked up no hints of the terrorist strikes promised in the bin Laden message. And a leading member of the Iraqi Shi'ite opposition to Saddam was one of many in the Arab world who accused bin Laden of trying to capitalize on Iraq's situation to boost his own organization.

Return To Top February 14, 2003

Air strategy for war 'timid'

By Rowan Scarborough: for full story go to Washington Times

The Bush administration's desire to spare dual military-civilian targets in Iraq has produced an air war plan that is too timid and does not properly prepare the battle space for ground troops, according to interviews with military officers.

But a spokesman for the U.S. Central Command, which will run the operation, called the war plan "comprehensive, modern and flexible."

The officers said the plan, as of a few weeks ago, would largely spare infrastructure targets, such as bridges, and most, if not all, telephone communications.

The officers said the plan deviates in significant ways from the 1991 38-day air campaign during Operation Desert Storm, in which telephone communications, power systems and bridges were targeted from the first day to isolate Saddam Hussein and his military forces.

The reason for the change: The Bush administration wants to spare hardships to Iraqi civilians and to show that the real target of the bombing campaign is Saddam.

Return To Top February 14, 2003

February 13, 2003

Consultations on measures to protect Turkey
Tenet: North Korea has ballistic missile capable of hitting U.S.
U.S., Coalition Plan to Restore Post-War Iraq
Turkey asks for talks on thwarted aid bid February 12
Iraq Placing Explosives Around Oil Wells February 12
South Korea Believes North Has No Nukes February 12
Why Hussein sees history on his side February 12
Coalition warplanes bomb Afghan caves February 12
Debka Argues The Old World Order Is Ending February 11
Editorial from Arabnews.com: Back to 1914? February 11
Pakistan Says Its Nuclear Program In Safe Hands February 11
15 Nations Order Diplomats Back From Kuwait February 11

Consultations on measures to protect Turkey

Press Conference by NATO Spokesman, Yves Brodeur

Good evening. And thank you for being so patient. I hope that I won't disappoint you.

The Council met, the meeting ended at 8:45. So far, we haven't been able to conclude our discussions as we had hoped today.

The countries which were not in a position to go along with the new proposal this morning are not at this point in a position to do so tonight. So there is no change in the position of the countries which could not agree to the new proposal put on the table by the Secretary General of NATO this morning.

Therefore, we expect to continue our discussions tomorrow, at a time to be decided, meaning that it is likely that there will be another meeting tomorrow, probably tomorrow morning, but we haven't yet agreed on the time.

I wish to stress though that one thing is clear, again, is that the issue here is not whether, it is when. That hasn't changed. It is still a timing issue.

I'll take questions. Please.

Q: Is the Secretary General going to work out a new compromise or will he stick to the present proposal?

Yves Brodeur: Right now, we're not considering putting on the table a new proposal. So we will still work on the basis of the proposal tabled this morning.

… Q: Yves, the new proposals, as they were outlined to us by various NATO officials, involved sending the AWACS planes, the Patriot missile batteries, along with chemical and biological warfare units to Turkey. But stripping out the troop elements associated with the Balkans and U.S. bases in Europe, how do you think that is going to make this proposal more appealing to France, Germany and Belgium?

Yves Brodeur: As I said, the issue -- and that was made clear again tonight -- the issue is not substance, it's a question of timing.

The three delegations who have difficulties with the proposal are all saying that they haven't changed their minds, their stance on this. They still feel that the time is not right for NATO to make that decision as we speak.

Q: But if the question is timing, what makes you think you can solve this problem tomorrow then?

Yves Brodeur: I didn't say that we can solve the problem tomorrow, the only thing I said is that we will continue our discussions tomorrow in the hope that we can arrive at a decision.

… Q: Why did Secretary General Robertson decide to call the meeting tonight?

Yves Brodeur: Secretary General Robertson decided to call the meeting tonight because he felt, again, that we had a proposal on the table which could form the basis for a consensus, to a consensus. Throughout the day, there were consultations, again, between capitals, hoping that we could tonight achieve a positive outcome.

We haven't been able to conclude and therefore, we will continue as I said. But again, the meeting was called because it was hoped that delegations' governments had had enough time to consult and to arrive at a decision in time for the meeting tonight.

I'll take one last question please. Madame.

Q: So the strategy right now, that is the problem of the timing, would be to make a meeting every day until those three say yes?

Yves Brodeur: Strategy is to keep working essentially and to continue our discussion. Consultations will go on. And we'll see if we can, we hope that we can actually arrive at a situation where we can conclude this discussion as soon as possible.

Thank you very much. Merci.

[Orbat.com note: It should be noted that France, Germany and Belgium are quite isolated on the issue within NATO. Even the Greeks of all people have criticised the use of the veto. ]

Return To Top February 13, 2003

Tenet: North Korea has ballistic missile capable of hitting U.S
CNN

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- North Korea has an untested ballistic missile capable of hitting the United States, top U.S. intelligence officials said Wednesday.

While testifying at a Senate committee hearing in Washington, CIA Director George Tenet was asked whether North Korea had a ballistic missile capable of reaching the U.S. West Coast.

Before answering, Tenet turned to very quickly consult with aides sitting behind him.

"I think the declassified answer, is yes, they can do that," Tenet said.

Defense Intelligence Agency Director Vice Adm. Lowell Jacoby, also testifying at the hearing, said outside the hearing room that the North Korean missile has not yet been flight tested, according to The Associated Press.

Moments earlier Tenet said it was likely that North Korea had been able to produce as many as two plutonium-based nuclear weapons.

The estimate is not new -- it was laid out in an unclassified CIA document in December 2001-- but Tenet is the most senior U.S. official to say so publicly.

The 2001 report said North Korea's Taepo Dong 2 missile may be capable of hitting the West Coast of the United States, as well Alaska and Hawaii.

The revelation came shortly after the United Nations nuclear watchdog agency declared North Korea in breach of international nuclear agreements and sent the issue to the U.N. Security Council.

The International Atomic Energy Agency's 35-nation executive board voted 31-0 to cite Pyongyang for being in breach of U.N. safeguards. Two countries, Russia and Cuba, abstained.

Russia had expressed concern over sending the matter to the Security Council, fearing it could push North Korea into further defiance. Sudan was not allowed to vote because it has not paid its dues, and another nation was not present.

Some officials have said there are moves to create a package for North Korea that would try to achieve a diplomatic solution. But the Security Council also could impose sanctions on Pyongyang in an attempt to persuade the North to drop its nuclear plans.

North Korea has said such a move would amount to a declaration of war.

The decision to send the matter to the Security Council comes at the same time that body has been dealing with weapons inspections in Iraq and whether Baghdad has been in compliance with U.N. Resolution 1441, which calls on Iraq to disarm.

Friday, the two top U.N. weapons inspectors report back to the council on their latest findings within Iraq.

European Union international policy chief Javier Solana -- who spent the last two days in meetings in South Korea -- said earlier Wednesday that now is not the time to impose sanctions on North Korea.

"I don't think this is the moment to do sanctions, and I do think the sanctions may contribute to the opposite that we want to obtain, which is defusing of the crisis," Solana said before the IAEA vote.

During his visit to Seoul, Solana has met with top South Korean officials, including President Kim Dae-jung, President-elect Roh Moo-hyun, the foreign minister and the minister of defense.

Solana also may travel to North Korea in the coming weeks to discuss ways to defuse the nuclear impasse. He said he would base the timing of any mission to Pyongyang on the wishes of North Korea's neighbors.

"All of them have told me 'the sooner, the better,' so we will do it the sooner, the better, Solana said.

Tensions have mounted on the Korean peninsula since last October when the United States said North Korea admitted to secretly pursuing a nuclear weapons program in violation of a 1994 deal.

Pyongyang, which denies the U.S. claim, responded by backing out of a nuclear non-proliferation treaty earlier this year, kicking out U.N. nuclear monitors and restarting a mothballed nuclear power plant in a move it says will compensate for an energy shortfall.

Return To Top February 13, 2003

U.S., Coalition Plan to Restore Post-War Iraq

Extracts from By American Forces Press Service by Linda D. Kozaryn

WASHINGTON, Feb. 11, 2003 -- Once Saddam Hussein's regime is history, the United States and its coalition partners will pitch in to help the Iraqi people restore their country, Douglas J. Feith, undersecretary of defense for policy, said on Capitol Hill today.

The United States aspires to liberate Iraq, not occupy it, Feith told members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. "Iraq belongs to the Iraqi people. Iraq does not and will not belong to the United States, the coalition or to anyone else," he said.

A U.S.-led coalition cannot take military action to eliminate the Iraqi threat to the world "and then leave a mess behind for the Iraqi people to clean up without a helping hand," he said. "That would ill serve the Iraqis, the United States and the world."

If there is a war, the United States would be committed to stay in post-war Iraq as long as necessary to help restore stability and would be determined to leave as soon as possible.

"We're going to eliminate Iraq's weapons of mass destruction and likewise the terrorist infrastructure; safeguard Iraq's territorial integrity; and begin the process of economic and political reconstruction," Feith said.

Eliminating weapons of mass destruction would be a huge undertaking, he noted. It would involve securing, assessing and dismantling Iraq's weapons of mass destruction capabilities, facilities and stockpiles.

Defense officials are preparing for the task, he said. U.S., U.N. and coalition officials, along with the new Iraqi government, would begin by first locating Iraq's widespread weapons of mass destruction sites and then rapidly and safely disabling them so they're not a threat to coalition forces. They would then have to dispose of nuclear, chemical, biological and missile capabilities and infrastructure.

How much time will it take? "We can't now even venture a sensible guess," Feith said.

Once Iraq is liberated, U.S. and coalition forces also would help provide humanitarian relief, organize basic services and work to establish security for the liberated Iraqis. Feith said the United States would encourage coalition partners, nongovernmental organizations, the United Nations and other international organizations to contribute to the effort.

As the Iraqi people put political and other structures in place to provide food, security and other necessities, he added, the United States and coalition partners would want the Iraqis to run their own affairs.

"Our goal is to transfer as much authority as possible, as quickly as possible, to the Iraqis themselves," he said. On the other hand, he added, the United States wouldn't try to foist off burdens on those who are in no position to carry or manage them.

The sooner reconstruction is accomplished, he said, the sooner the coalition would be able to withdraw and the sooner the Iraqis would regain complete control of their country.

The immediate responsibility for administering a post-war Iraq, Feith said, would fall on U.S. Army Gen. Tommy Franks, commander of U.S. Central Command and commander of U.S. and coalition forces in the field. A new office within the Defense Department would help coordinate the reconstruction effort.

On Jan. 20, President Bush directed the creation of a post-war planning office within Feith's policy organization in the Pentagon. The Office of Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance, staffed by officials from departments and agencies throughout the government, is considered an "expeditionary office."

"In the event of war, most of the people in the office will deploy to Iraq," he said.

The charter for the new office includes planning and implementation. "The intention is not to theorize, but to do practical work," Feith said. The office will establish links with U.N. agencies and nongovernmental organizations that will play a role in post-war Iraq, as well as counterpart offices in the governments of coalition countries and various free-Iraqi groups.

For several months, he noted, an interagency working group has been doing contingency planning for humanitarian relief. It has established links with U.S. Central Command, U.N. agencies and nongovernmental organizations involved in relief efforts.

The working group has developed a concept of operations for U.N. and nongovernmental groups to provide aid. The group would also establish civil- military operations centers so U.S. forces could coordinate providing relief and restart the U.N. ration distribution system, using U.S. supplies until U.N. and NGO supplies could arrive.

Other interagency groups are planning to vet current Iraqi officials to determine with whom U.S. officials should work, and they're also working on post-war elimination of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction.

The function of the new Defense Department office is to "integrate all of these efforts and make them operational," Feith said. "It is building on the work done, not reinventing it."

Return To Top February 13, 2003



February 12, 2003


Iraq February 10
Pakistan, India Expel Top Diplomats February 9
Mega-terror Menaces on Three Continents February 9

Turkey asks for talks on thwarted aid bid

Associated Press

BRUSSELS, Belgium (AP) — France, Germany and Belgium blocked NATO efforts Monday to begin planning for possible Iraqi attacks against Turkey, deepening divisions in the alliance over the U.S.-led push to oust Saddam Hussein.

Turkey immediately requested emergency consultations under NATO's mutual defense treaty — or Article 4 — the first time a nation has done so in the alliance's 53-year history.

"I am not seeking today to minimize the seriousness of the situation. It is serious," said NATO Secretary General Lord Robertson during a break in the meeting of alliance ambassadors, where he called the atmosphere "very heated."

Diplomats said France, Germany and Belgium would do serious harm to the credibility of NATO if they would reject Turkey's direct request for help.

Article 4 declares NATO members will consult when "in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the parties is threatened."

Early Monday, France, Germany and Belgium blocked the automatic start of NATO procedures for the military planning to protect Turkey, arguing it would force the crisis into a "logic of war" when diplomatic alternatives still stood a chance of success.

"It would signify that we have already entered into the logic of war, that ... any chance, any initiative to still resolve the conflict in a peaceful way was gone," Belgian Foreign Minister Louis Michel said.

The move was a blow to the United States, which has lobbied hard for more than three weeks for the alliance to begin military planning and won the support of 16 of the 19 NATO allies.

"This is a most unfortunate decision," said U.S. ambassador to NATO Nicolas Burns. "Because of their actions, NATO is now facing a crisis of credibility."

Still, Lord Robertson sought to play down the divisions. "What is important, is that we arrive at a consensus and I'm confident we will," he said.

Turkey's Foreign Minister Yasar Yakis also sought to soothe tempers. "There was no veto on defending Turkey," Yakis told reporters in Ankara. "There is disagreement over the timing" but not on the principle of defending Turkey, he said. "These problems can be overcome."

He did not say whether Turkey would directly ask NATO to start contingency planning to defend Turkey against an attack.

Diplomats said they expected France and the other holdouts to drop their objections to the military planning when faced with a direct request from the Turks under the treaty.

"I trust the alliance will stick together and we will help Turkey," Norwegian Defense Minister Kristin Krohn Devold said Sunday. "I have a strong belief in commonsense."

Over the weekend, at an international defense conference in Munich, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld warned continued delays in responding to Turkey's request were "inexcusable" and risked undermining the credibility of the alliance.

He intensified his criticism in an interview published Sunday in Italy's La Republica newspaper. "Shameful, for me it's truly shameful," Rumsfeld was quoted as saying. "Turkey is an ally. An ally that is risking everything ... How can you refuse it help?"

In France, officials stood by their position but said they would help the Turks if they judged it necessary.

"If Turkey was really under threat, France would be one of the first at its side," French Defense Minister Michele Alliot-Marie told reporters in Munich. "Today, we don't feel that threat is there."

As well as trans-Atlantic differences, the deadlock highlighted deep divisions among European allies. The majority, led by Britain, Spain and Italy, is backing the tough line against Iraq taken by the United States and has been opposed by France and Germany.

NATO's military commanders say the planning for the limited support for Turkey can be wrapped up within a few days once they get the go-ahead, but actual deployment of the NATO units will need further approval from the 19 allies.

All NATO decisions require unanimous support from the allies.

[Orbat.com note: The specific Turkish requests are for NATO E-3 AWACS aircraft, chemical and biological agent detection teams and Patriot missile systems. Turkey will eventually have its requests approved by NATO, but this kind of acrimony always leaves scars. N. American readers should know that Norway has condemned the French veto. Besides the UK the governments of Italy, Spain and Holland all remain broadly supportive of the need for action in Iraq. Belgium quite vociferously opposed Desert Storm in 1991, going to the extent of refusing the sale of artillery shells to the British MoD for the duration of hostilities. The French withdrew its forces from the integrated military structure of NATO in 1966, and has used its veto a number of times. So French and Belgian obstructionism on this issue is not surprising. What is potentially much more damaging is that Germany under Gerhard Schroeder has joined their ranks. NATO is too important to ever be ‘irrelevant’, but any weakening of NATO weakens the influence of both the US and Europe.]

Return To Top February 12, 2003

Iraq Placing Explosives Around Oil Wells

Pakistan’s Jang reports that

Iraqi President Saddam Hussein is moving large amounts of explosives to the country's oil fields, in apparent preparations to destroy them in case of a US-led military invasion, NBC News reported late on Monday.

In the event of war, the US military will try to secure the Iraqi oil field early in the operation, according to NBC News. But it is unlikely it will be able to get to all 1,500 Iraqi oil wells in time.

In Iraq, UN inspectors paid a surprise visit to a Baghdad missile plant on Tuesday. In their daily rounds of inspections, conducted despite a holiday in Iraq, a UN team went to the 17th of Nissan factory, which makes molds and casts, including components for Iraq's al-Samoud ballistic missiles, the Information Ministry reported. The findings of the two-day experts meeting that ends on Tuesday at UN headquarters in New York may be incorporated in an update report Blix must file with the Security Council of Friday.

The reports on Friday by Blix and chief nuclear inspector Mohamed ElBaradei are expected to help decide the next steps to be taken by the Security Council in the long-running Iraq crisis. In another development, Turkey has offered a safe haven to Iraqi President Saddam Hussein if he steps down to prevent a US-led war, a Turkish newspaper said on Tuesday. Aides to the prime minister were not immediately available for response to the report. Foreign Ministry officials had no immediate comment. The mass-circulation daily Milliyet said Prime Minister Abdullah Gul had made the offer to Iraq's number two, Taha Yasin Ramadan, during a secret visit he made to Ankara this month.

Return To Top February 12, 2003

South Korea Believes North Has No Nukes

Extracts from Associated Press

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) -- In sharp differences with Washington, South Korea said North Korea does not have nuclear weapons and the United States should open direct talks with Pyongyang on the crisis.

South Korean Prime Minister Kim Suk-soo told parliament Monday there is no proof the North has produced nuclear weapons despite U.S. assertions that Pyongyang has one or two atomic bombs.

"North Korea is believed to have extracted enough plutonium to make one or two bombs before 1994," Kim said. "Since there has been no confirmation that it actually has produced nuclear weapons, we believe that they do not have any."

Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld said Sunday in Germany that most intelligence services know the North Koreans have "one or two nuclear weapons" and "they may have enough nuclear material to make an additional six to eight nuclear weapons" by May or June.

North Korea has said it has the right to develop nuclear weapons and wants bilateral talks with the United States. The United States says the North must meet its international obligations, including an accord with South Korea that the peninsula would be kept free of nuclear weapons.

South Korea, too, wants direct U.S.-Pyongyang discussions. Returning from a visit to the United States on Sunday, Chyung Dai-chul, an envoy of South Korea's President-elect Roh Moo-hyun, said he "asked Washington to open direct U.S.-North Korea talks soon without condition."

But in Washington, Secretary of State Colin Powell said Washington would eventually talk with North Korea but it should be within a "multilateral setting."

"We should not let North Korea dictate the terms under which these conversations take place. I think there will ultimately be conversations, but I think other nations have a role to play," Powell said on Fox Sunday News.

Powell cited China's possible role in defusing the tension. China, a traditional ally of North Korea, wants the Korean Peninsula to be free of nuclear weapons.

"Half their foreign aid goes to North Korea," Powell said. "Eighty percent of North Korea's wherewithal, with respect to energy and economic activity, comes from China. China has a role to play, and I hope China will play that role."

However, China's ties with North Korea have waned over the years. Also, China likely is mindful that economic pressure on North Korea could send more destitute North Koreans across the border, leading to a humanitarian crisis on Chinese soil.

In other developments, U.S. Ambassador Howard H. Baker warned in Tokyo of a possible North Korean missile test over Japan in what could be an effort to increase tension over the North's nuclear programs. North Korea alarmed the region by firing a rocket over Japan and into the Pacific in 1998.

The crisis over North Korea's nuclear programs began in October when U.S. officials said North Korean officials admitted they had a clandestine nuclear weapons program. Washington and its allies then suspended oil shipments, and North Korea responded by taking steps to reactivate nuclear facilities frozen under a 1994 energy deal with the United States.

The Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency is likely to refer the dispute to the U.N. Security Council at a board meeting Wednesday, agency spokeswoman Melissa Fleming said. The council could consider economic and political sanctions.

"It seems like that is the most likely scenario," Fleming said.

North Korea has criticized efforts to bring the nuclear dispute to the U.N. Security Council, saying the standoff over Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions is between the North and the United States only.

President George W. Bush believes the standoff can be resolved peacefully, but he said Friday that "all options are on the table," suggesting that Washington would consider military action.

North Korea accuses the United States of inciting the current nuclear tension as a pretext to invade the communist country.

Despite the nuclear crisis, a North Korean delegation was to arrive in Seoul Tuesday for talks on economic exchanges.

Return To Top February 12, 2003

Why Hussein sees history on his side

From the Christian Science Monitor by Scott Peterson

AMMAN, JORDAN – Gambling yet again with his rule, his life, and the fate of one of the most powerful nations in the Middle East, Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein appears unfazed by the rising pressure brought to bear by the United States.

Almost nightly on Iraqi television Mr. Hussein calmly waves a Cuban cigar, exhorts his generals to prepare for war, and denies the existence of weapons of mass destruction.

Hussein is an inveterate survivor. Longtime Hussein watchers say hopeless odds to him are simply an opportunity to seal his place in history. "You could make the case that [Hussein] thinks he is protected by Providence, and to some extent there is evidence for that," says Andrew Krepinevich, a former US Army strategic planner who heads the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington. "Saddam feels that he is a man on a mission, and that somehow he will be allowed to complete it."

Such a mind-set is posing problems for US war planners trying to conflict. When will the rational, diplomatic response - now in evidence, even as pressure builds - give way to the violent lashing out of a man with his back to the wall? How might chemical and biological weapons, if Iraq has any, come into play?

Those secrets may rest in Hussein's brass-knuckled - and sometimes white-knuckled - history. Born dirt-poor and unwanted in a Tikrit backwater village, Hussein was able to violently claw his way out of an abused childhood to the top of the ruling Baath Party.

He has survived numerous coup and assassination attempts, a devastating war with Iran in the 1980s, and then took on the US and UN in the 1991 Gulf War. He further survived a widespread, postwar rebellion, followed by more than a decade of sanctions that have impoverished his oil-rich nation.

"We may look at [the current US build-up] and say they odds are really long, and Saddam's answer would be: 'I've been doing this all my life,' says Mr. Krepinevich.

In his first television interview since 1990, which aired on the BBC Tuesday, Hussein said that Iraq has no weapons of mass destruction nor any link to Al Qaeda. The CIA assessed last fall, in fact, that Iraq posed little threat if unprovoked. But the agency determined that any conflict that sought regime change was likely to result in Hussein's use of any remaining chemical or biological weapons against US forces and Israel.

Hussein is "not a martyr," and "has this funny kind of optimism," says Jerrold Post, a political psychologist and former US government analyst at George Washington University, who has focused on profiling Hussein for some 15 years.

A formative moment was the 1991 war, which was widely cast in the West as a decisive defeat for Iraq. For Hussein, surviving meant a coveted international role. Palestinians cheered from rooftops as Iraqi Scud missiles struck the Israeli capital; an Arab leader was standing up to the US and its close Jewish ally.

"He was filled with dreams of glory, to follow in the path of Saladin and liberate Jerusalem from the Crusaders ... to be a hero of the Arab world," says Mr. Post. "This was an explosion of narcissism for him. Kuwait quickly went off the screen, and he was a major world leader."

Such grandiose views and Hussein's rule over a deeply ingrained, all-seeing police state are coupled with unreliable information about how aware or isolated Hussein and his people are from the outside world. Iraq is "where you imposed East European knowledge and discipline on Arab wile," says Said Aburish, author of "Saddam Hussein: The Politics of Revenge," who once worked for the Iraqi leader.

"The fact that people can't gather to conspire, combined with the fact that Iraqis have been let down by the US on more than one occasion, means you reach an unknown: Will the Iraqi people respond to an American invasion, and how?" Mr. Aburish says.

Before that moment, few Iraqis will raise their heads above the parapet. Aburish notes that Shiite Muslim opponents of the regime killed a stand-in for Hussein in the early 1980s, and the leader "jumped in his car and ran to the television station to say: 'I'm still around.' " Today "not a trace" exists of that village of 10,000 people north of Baghdad, says Aburish.

Ruthlessness and patience have served Saddam well, so far. "I don't see him as a chess player, which is anticipating moves ahead," says Simon Henderson, a biographer of Hussein in England. "I always see him playing a long game, because he thinks things will work out for him."

As he stalls, the ball has already bounced several times in Hussein's favor - a new crisis has emerged with North Korea, European leaders are divided over war, and antiwar protests have gathered pace worldwide. "A statistician should tell him that the next few bounces are going to be away from him," Henderson says.

The moment it is clear to Hussein that the game has changed could be a dangerous one. "When does he begin to shift to conflict mode, and out of diplomatic mode? asks Krepinevich. "Once that occurs, the restrictions on his actions become almost nil. He has very little incentive to hold back on anything."

The risks of that moment are high, since they will almost certainly come when Hussein's manifestly strong pressure cooker is at bursting point.

"The more stress he is under, the more we can expect to see him becoming more paranoid, more ready to strike out at enemies, real and imagined, while unwinding and disillusioning those around him," says political psychologist Post.

Hussein's personality, Post says, is marked by extreme self-absorption, grandiosity, paranoia - "not crazy, but ready to be attacked, and to attack" - with no constraints on conscience, and a willingness to use "whatever aggression is necessary without a backward look."

"It's sane, but it is the most dangerous combination," says Post. "This is not a man who will go gently into that good night."

Return To Top February 12, 2003

Coalition warplanes bomb Afghan caves

For complete story including an attack on Khost airport click Jang

BAGRAM AIR BASE: Coalition warplanes bombed caves in central Afghanistan after at least five heavily-armed extremists ambushed US Special Forces as they picked their way through a remote mountain valley, the US military said on Tuesday.

Colonel Roger King said the patrol was attacked at dawn on Monday by machineguns and rocket propelled grenades (RPGs) from overhead ridges as it was exploring Bahgran valley in central Uruzgan province.

There were no US casualties from the attack, which occurred at around 6:30 am, King told reporters at Bagram air base. "Close air support was requested, and coalition F-16s dropped five 500-pound bombs. More than 100 rounds of 20mm ammunition was fired on three targets consisting of various caves and at least five armed men." He said there was no indication of any extremist casualties in the exchange.

Return To Top February 12, 2003

February 11, 2003


Debka Argues The Old World Order Is Ending
Editorial from Arabnews.com: Back to 1914?
Pakistan Says Its Nuclear Program In Safe Hands
15 Nations Order Diplomats Back From Kuwait
Iraq February 10
Pakistan, India Expel Top Diplomats February 9
Mega-terror Menaces on Three Continents February 9
What To Expect from Iraq Military February 9
Qatar, al-Qaeda and Iraq February 8
Pakistan diplomat named in FIR for funding militants February 8

Debka Argues The Old World Order Is Ending

[Editor’s note. Debka is generally not prone to deep thinking, usually focusing on its agenda. In our opinion, however, whoever wrote this article has shown a through understanding of the real stakes in the clash between US supporters and opponents at the UN, NATO, and the EU, institutions whose days Debka argues are now done, because the world order they were designed for is now ending. At Orbat.com we’ve been inclined to accept the theory that the US seeks to remake the Mideast and the Arab world. The implications of what Debka says are even wider: we may be seeing a US effort to remake the whole world.]

US-Europe Iraq Standoff Throws UN, NATO and EU into Fatal Crisis

For full story click Debka.com

The world’s key international bodies - the United Nations, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union - are splitting fatally over the Iraq arms crisis. A NATO emergency session was deadlocked Monday, February 10, when three leading European nations, France, Germany and Belgium, encouraged by Russia – a non-member – blocked an American request to extend boosted protection to Turkey in a war contingency, chiefly AWACS surveillance planes, Patriot missiles and anti-chemical and anti-biological warfare teams.

France, Germany, Russia and Belgium argued that approval of Washington’s request would send out two wrong signals:

1.That they approve of American military action against Iraq and are prepared to join in – which is untrue. The Russian and French presidents stated jointly in Paris Monday that Iraq must be disarmed by peaceful means, that the UN inspectors must be allowed continue their mission and that war was only a last resort.

2. By sending Turkey the two teams, they would affirm that Iraq possesses weapons of mass destruction for which Turkey needs protection. This would cut the ground from under the UN inspection mission and any further diplomacy, clearing the way for military action without further ado.

Return To Top February 11, 2003

Editorial from Arabnews.com: Back to 1914?

From Arabnews.com

In Makkah at this very moment, some two million pilgrims are praying for peace among nations, peace in Iraq, peace in our homes, peace in our hearts. Not just in Makkah, but all over the world, millions upon millions of Muslims are making the same prayer. And not only Muslims. Millions upon millions of Christians, Jews and others too, in the US, in Europe, everywhere.

And yet because of the Bush administration’s steadfast, arrogant refusal to be swayed from its determination to topple Saddam Hussein, all we can contemplate is a world on the brink of war.

That the Americans have ignored Arab appeals to draw back from the brink and settle this crisis by means other than force does not come as a surprise. Washington only sits down and talks to the Arabs when it wants something from them, not the other way around. It is not US contempt for Arab opinions that astounds. It is the contempt they show for their allies and friends. The Europeans are not traitors or fools, as too many in the media and politics in the US try to make out. If the Germans, the French, the Russians, the Belgians and others all agree that an attack on Iraq is madness at this point in time, the US should listen, not hurl abuse at them. The Europeans are America’s oldest, best and truest friends. If someone cannot listen to the advice of his friends, then he is truly lost.

Washington’s adventurism is a descent into the unknown. It is all tactics and no strategy. It has no plans beyond toppling Saddam Hussein, and after that, nothing more concrete than a vague hope of democracy in the country. It is inexcusable. No government should ever go to war without an endgame in mind.

But it is not what will happen in the days after an invasion that frightens. Saddam Hussein’s regime will probably fall very quickly and whatever fury there may be in the Middle East rapidly subside. It is what happens three or four months afterwards that terrifies. The Iraqi opposition hate each other as much as they hate Saddam Hussein. Without a strong force at the center — and the US cannot afford to remain long — there is a real danger of Iraq falling apart. Who knows where that could take the region. Will it destabilize Arab Gulf states?

There will be dire consequences if the Americans attack Iraq; of that we can be sure. But no one knows what they will be. That includes the US. That is what is so terrifying.

Washington compares Saddam Hussein to Adolf Hitler and the situation to the run-up to World War II. World War I is a more frightening comparison. It started with ultimatums and troop movements which took on an unstoppable momentum of their own, resulting in the most lunatic, most destructive war the world has ever known. By the time it was over, those Prussian, Russian, Ottoman, and Hapsburg empires that thought they could control events had been swept into the history books and the maps of Europe and the Middle East entirely redrawn. None of that was foreseen in 1914.

There is a chilling feeling that this is August 1914 all over again. Prayers for peace are desperately needed.

Return To Top February 11, 2003

Pakistan Says Its Nuclear program In Safe Hands

For full story please click Jang.

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan said on Monday its nuclear programme was in safe hands and was defensive in nature, as it had a proper control and command structure, which everyone knew well. "Pakistan's nuclear programme is directed entirely by Pakistan and Pakistani people and it is not directed by others," Foreign Office Spokesman Aziz Ahmed Khan told the weekly briefing. He was responding to reported remarks by British Prime Minister Tony Blair who recently said that Pakistan should minimise its nuclear programme.

Return To Top February 11, 2003

15 countries call back diplomats from Kuwait

For full story please click Jang

ISLAMABAD: Fifteen important countries have called back their diplomats and embassy staffers from Kuwait. Pakistan ambassador to Kuwait, Shafqat Saeed has sought instructions from the Pakistan government as to wheather Pakistani diplomats should be retained or called back in view of the situation prevailing in Kuwait. The reliable sources of foreign office told The News on Monday night that on the report of Pakistan ambassador, the foreign ministry is reviewing the situation on emergency basis and a decision in this connection will be taken within 48 hours. It is expected that all diplomats will be called back.

Return To Top February 11, 2003

February 10, 2003


Iraq
Pakistan, India Expel Top Diplomats February 9
Mega-terror Menaces on Three Continents February 9
What To Expect from Iraq Military February 9
Qatar, al-Qaeda and Iraq February 8
Pakistan diplomat named in FIR for funding militants February 8
Pakistan lodges strong protest February 8
British Troops Will Stay in Iraq For 3 Years February 7
Briefs February 7
Afghan National Army Doing Well in the Field February 7
Korean Developments February 6
Cave-Clearing Ops Proceed in Spin Boldak Area February 6

Iraq

Al Qaeda’s Opening Shot in Iraq War

For full story click Debka.com.

Saturday night, February 8, in the Iraqi-Kurdish city of Suleimaniyeh, al Qaeda and Iraqi military intelligence fired their first shot of the US-Iraq war - by assassination. They used their shared surrogate, the extremist Kurdish Ansar al-Islam of northeast Iraq, to eliminate the top command of the pro-American Patriotic Union of Iraqi Kurdistan’s fighting militia.

The three-way collaboration between Baghdad, al Qaeda and the Kurdish fundamentalist terrorists provided a live and incontrovertible smoking gun. The price was heavy, a grave setback for US war plans.

DEBKAfile’s military analysts compare the murders to the assassination of the Afghan Northern Alliance commander Shah Massoud two days before the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in New York and Washington.

Then, the killers posed as journalists; this time, they pretended to be defectors.

Ansar al Islam, which has been fighting the PUK for two years and whose members trained in Afghanistan, used double agents to...

Iran Official Denies US Talks

For full story click Islamic Republic News Agency/

Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid-Reza Asefi here Sunday denied the news published in Washington Post on contact between Iran and US officials regarding Iraq. The daily recently claimed that Iranian and US officials met in Europe to discuss the crisis in Iraq.

US Civil Reserve Air Fleet Stage I Activation Announced

For full story click Globalsecurity.org

The Secretary of Defense has given authority to the commander, U.S. Transportation Command (USTRANSCOM) to activate Stage I of the Civil Reserve Air Fleet (CRAF) to provide the Department of Defense additional airlift capability to move U.S. troops and military cargo. This measure is necessary due to increased operations associated with the build-up of U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf region. CRAF aircraft are U.S. commercial passenger and cargo aircraft that are contractually pledged to move passengers and cargo when the Department of Defense's airlift requirements exceeds the capability of U.S. military aircraft.

The authority to activate CRAF Stage I involves 22 U.S. airline companies and their 78 commercial aircraft -- 47 passenger aircraft and 31 wide-body cargo aircraft. While this authority is for all 78 commercial aircraft in the CRAF Stage I program, the USTRANSCOM commander, Air Force Gen. John W. Handy, is only activating 47 passenger aircraft. Currently, U.S. military airlift aircraft and CRAF volunteered commercial cargo aircraft are meeting the airlift requirements. However, if required, the USTRANSCOM commander can activate those 31 cargo aircraft in the CRAF Stage I program.

US, UK to seek 48-hour deadline for Saddam's exile

For full story click Jang

LONDON: The United States and Britain are drawing up plans to give Iraqi President Saddam Hussein as little as 48 hours to flee Baghdad or face war, as part of a second UN resolution, the Sunday Telegraph reported.

Such a resolution could be put before the UN Security Council by next weekend if weapons inspectors conclude in a key report on Friday that Saddam is still refusing to give up weapons of mass destruction, the British paper said.

But a Downing Street spokeswoman downplayed the report, saying: "It is far too early to be talking about that sort of thing. "We are where we are and we need to let the inspectors get on with what they are doing before we start going down the road of what a resolution would look like."

The Telegraph quoted a senior UN Security Council diplomat as saying that Britain would put forward the resolution because Washington "does not want to be seen to need it". "The resolution being discussed would declare that Saddam is in material breach of UN resolutions, which authorises the use of all necessary means to disarm him," the diplomat added.

Return To Top February 10, 2003

February 9, 2003


Pakistan, India Expel Top Diplomats
Mega-terror Menaces on Three Continents
What To Expect from Iraq Military
Qatar, al-Qaeda and Iraq February 8
Pakistan diplomat named in FIR for funding militants February 8
Pakistan lodges strong protest February 8
British Troops Will Stay in Iraq For 3 Years February 7
Briefs February 7
Afghan National Army Doing Well in the Field February 7
Korean Developments February 6
Cave-Clearing Ops Proceed in Spin Boldak Area February 6
US Reserve Mobilization as of February 5, 2003 February 6
Russia willing to sell missiles, planes to Pakistan February 5

Pakistan, India expel top diplomats

By Mariana Baabar writing in the Jang.[Article has been shortened.]

[Editor’s note: in the Commonwealth, a High Commissioner is the equivalent of an ambassador, so the expulsions are symptomatic of a worsening crisis.]

ISLAMABAD: Terming relations with India "extremely bad", Pakistan on Saturday ordered the acting Indian high commissioner and four other commission officials to leave the country within 48 hours, swiftly reciprocating a similar move by New Delhi earlier in the day.

"Relations between India and Pakistan are extremely bad because of the actions of the Indians. It appears they are determined to ensure that relations worsen and remain tense," said Foreign Office spokesman Aziz Ahmed Khan at a hurriedly called press conference.

India had earlier expelled Pakistan's Acting High Commissioner Jalil Abbas Jilani a day after police accused him of funding separatists in held Kashmir. He and four other Pakistani staff at the Pakistan High Commission in New Delhi were also ordered to leave within 48 hours.

Pakistan and India scaled down their diplomatic presence during the military stand-off last year that followed a 2001 raid on India's parliament New Delhi blamed on Pakistan-based Islamic groups. Neither side has since reappointed ambassadors.

Vikram Misri, counsellor at the Indian High Commission, was called to the Foreign Ministry and informed about the expulsions. Again reciprocating Indian move, Islamabad has also decided to cut down the strength of its high commission in New Delhi from 51 to 47.

The spokesman insisted that Islamabad has acted with great restraint, maturity and responsibility in the face of every provocation from New Delhi. When asked why Pakistan felt to react, Khan replied, "Sometimes your hands are forced. Pakistan has been very patient and acted with maturity. This time Pakistan has acted in equal measure. We have acted only when it is needed to take that action. We have never flouted the code of conduct as responsible governments don't flout agreements."

The spokesman said that if one was to read reasons into the recent actions by New Delhi, it appears that after the manner it conducted the Gujarat elections on anti-Pakistan feelings and succeeded, it appears that the same tactics would be used for the upcoming state elections. "They want to experiment the same kind of policy," replied Khan. However at this stage, he said, he would refrain from speculating whether the missions in both countries would close down completely.

On a possibility of a meeting between President Pervez Musharraf and Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee at the upcoming NAM meeting, the spokesman replied, "we will not be found wanting. Pakistan is ready for any kind of meeting." The spokesman said the recent actions of India would create problems for Indian citizens who wish to come to Pakistan since the staff will be drastically reduced.

Agencies add: Aziz Ahmed Khan said Pakistan's acting high commissioner has been asked to leave on totally trumped up charges. He said India has also asked four staff members to leave on "no-replacement" basis which reflects their design to reducing the strength of the mission which would create problems for those in India, who wish to visit Pakistan.

About allegation of cross-border movement, coming from the Indian Prime Minister, the spokesman reiterated Pakistan's proposal of deploying UN observers to verify claims. "But the Indians do not agree to it because if they agree to something like this, they won't be able to make these baseless allegations," he added.

In New Delhi, Indian foreign ministry spokesman Navtej Sarna said India "did not intend any downgradation in the level of (Pakistan's) representation" and would grant a visa to the person Pakistan named in the envoy's place. Sarna told reporters that the other four Pakistan High Commission officials being expelled were Habibur Rehman, Aftab Ahmed, Abdul Razak and Mohammad Nazir. He said the four were not diplomats.

However, reacting to Pakistan's tit for tat expulsions, Sarna told Reuters: "It is a pure and simple act of retaliation. It shows Pakistan's compulsive hostility towards India. It is unfortunate that Pakistan has chosen to react in this way."

In New Delhi, Jalil Abbas Jilani, the expelled acting Pakistani high commissioner, has said the Indian decision was meant to avoid dialogue with Pakistan and gain domestic political mileage. Jalil Abbas told APP: " The decision clearly indicates that the writ of the hardliners within the government is prevailing."

It would not only heighten the tension between the two countries, but it was also meant to avoid meaningful dialogue between the two countries, he said. "The motivation behind all such decisions taken by India during the last years are clearly meant to project ongoing just and indigenous Kashmiris freedom struggle as terrorist movement," he said.

About Indian allegations, he said: "These are utterly baseless and since last many years, India had invented every incident to blame Pakistan. India has never substantiated its allegations with concrete evidence", he said, adding this development will have extremely negative impact on the already tense relations between the two countries and prevailing situation in South Asia.

Return To Top February 9, 2003

Mega-Terror Menaces on Three Continents

For full story click Here.

With the approach of American military action against Iraq, the United States and its war allies, including Israel, have gone on top alert to steel themselves against a multi-pronged mega-terror offensive assault.

According to DEBKAfile and DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s exclusive counter-terror and intelligence sources, six entities have come together to prepare this offensive, operating both together and independently. They are:

1. Iraqi military intelligence, or rather the dread Unit 999, which is an arm of the super-secret Fedayeen Saddam (Saddam’s Martyrs), commanded by the Iraqi ruler’s eldest son, Uday.
2. Al Qaeda’s top men.
3. Iraqi and Al Qaeda sleeper cells planted in the United States, Europe, the Persian Gulf and Israel.
4. Palestinian terrorists operating on West Bank and Gaza Strip. Palestinian terror groups and militias based in Damascus.
5. Hizballah security and intelligence bodies working in harness with al Qaeda.
6. Hizballah leaders and high officers under...

Return To Top February 9, 2002

What To Expect From Iraqi Military

An ABCNews.com story; for complete article, click from Military.com

During the Gulf War, the Iraqi military buckled so quickly that some of its soldiers seemed almost eager to surrender. Televised images of Iraqi soldiers incinerated in their vehicles helped convince President Bush to end the ground war after only four days because of his concerns the world would consider continued pummeling of retreating Iraqi forces as a virtual slaughter.

Since then, years of sanctions and continued allied attacks in the no-fly zones have left the Iraqi military in even worse shape. So should American and British forces, now preparing for another war, expect a cakewalk against a badly degraded Iraqi army?

The consensus from American military planners and analysts: absolutely not.

Return To Top February 9, 2003

February 8, 2003


Qatar, al-Qaeda and Iraq
Pakistan diplomat named in FIR for funding militants
Pakistan lodges strong protest
British Troops Will Stay in Iraq For 3 Years February 7
Briefs February 7
Afghan National Army Doing Well in the Field February 7
Korean Developments February 6
Cave-Clearing Ops Proceed in Spin Boldak Area February 6
US Reserve Mobilization as of February 5, 2003 February 6
Russia willing to sell missiles, planes to Pakistan February 5
Afghan troops, Taliban clash near Kandahar February 5
Saddam's Iron Fist Keeps Army in Line February 5
Stratfor On Al Qaeda’s Renewed Campaign February 5

Qatar, al-Qaeda and Iraq

By Johann Price.

The American television network ABC will present an 'exclusive' tonight on al-Qaeda supporters in an unnamed Gulf royal family.

Any of those expecting al-Saud, or perhaps the one of the seven from the UAE will be surprised when the open secret is broken and al-Thani of Qatar are named.

After Ramzi Yousef's little mishap in Manila in January of 1995 his chief co-conspirator KSM fled to Qatar and formed a cell with an even older al-Qaeda figure, Shawqi al-Islambouli brother of Anwar Sadat's assasin Khaled al-Islamboulis. One year later in January of 1996 KSM was indicted for his role in the 'Bojinka' plot to simultaneously bomb 11 American airliners over the Pacific. The FBI contacted the Qatari government, which agreed to hand him over. The FBI team was diverted once it arrived in Doha, and the terrorists escaped to Prague with passports provided by the Minister for Endowments and Islamic Affairs, Ahmad bin Abdallah Arab al-Marri.

The assistance has not ended since 9-11. Khalid Sheikh Mohammed spent at least a couple of weeks in hiding there after the attacks in safe houses paid for by prominent Qataris.

ther names you can probably expect to hear in the programme:

Abdul Karim al-Thani, member of the royal family and a fundamentalist who is one of the leading financiers of terrorists. A man who funded and protected Zarkawi (now infamous after Colin Powell's presentation) transitting between Afghanistan and Iraq.

Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem bin Hamad al-Thani, former chief of police and the man who first revealed the degree of sympathy in sections of the Qatari establishment. He fled the country after failing to unseat his cousin in a Feb 1996 attempt on behalf of the emir's father, who was deposed in June of 1995. Now serving a life sentence in Qatar after being snatched from Beirut. Interestingly Saudi, Bahrain and Egypt supported the coup attempt. The Saudis are deeply unhappy over Qatar's political and social modernization. Bahrain and Qatar have a long running feud, and both Egypt and Saudi may have been unhappy over the kinds of people being harbored by Qatar.

The problem here is that the Emir, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani is not a fundamentalist, but he is in essence little more than the first among equals. He has used his position to push greater transparency and is even moving towards the involvement of women in the political process. Under Khalifa al-Thani Qatar has moved towards normalization of ties with Israel and has quite a healthy economic relationship with it. Most of all he has allowed the expansion of al-Udeid air base, providing the US an alternative to Saudi Arabia. Qatar is playing host not only to the bulk of airpower outside Kuwait, but most of the apex theatre command and control facilities.

Working out how to suppress support among some of Qatar's elite to al-Qaeda without weakening the emir has been a serious concern. This ABC programme is going to make it much harder to handle the problem discreetly, but it is also going to make it much harder for those with a purely military focus to ignore this serious issue.

Return To Top February 8, 2003

Pakistan diplomat named in FIR for funding militants]

Times of India

[Editor’s Note: an FIR is a First Information Report, a document police open when registering a case. POTA is the Prevention of Terrorism Act, a draconian anti-terrorist measure used in India. For all the notoriety of this act, which permits preventative detention, it has greater safeguards for the accused than US laws in effect after September 11, 2001. The problem in India is that the Government is given an unlimited benefit of doubt by the courts and review bodies. Against that, POTA detainees are not subjected to the enormous psychological and physical pressures American detainees experience. Because India is a poor country, any jailed person lives in a state of considerable discomfort, but Indian jails are far more humane than American ones.]

NEW DELHI: Pakistan's Charge d'Affaires Jaleel Abbas Gilani has been named in the FIR registered after two arrested Hurriyat activists alleged that he funded separatist activities in Jammu and Kashmir while the duo were remanded to 10 days' police custody.

Anjum Zamrooda Habib, chief of Muslim Khawateen Markaz, a Hurriyat constituent, who alongwith Delhi-based Hurriyat spokesman Shabir Dar were arrested on Thursday night, confessed before Pota judge S N Dhingra that Rs 3.07 lakh recovered from her was handed over to her by the Pakistan High Commission to be passed on to amalgam chairman Abdul Gani Bhat as a "nazrana" (gift).

The two, who have been arrested under Pota, were produced amid tight security before the special judge, who remanded them to 10 days of police custody.

Police recovered Rs 2 lakh from Hurriyat office and arrested Dar after Habib alleged that he was also receiving money from the High Commission.

The 23-party amalgam denied any involvement in the case and termed the police action as "politically motivated".

Delhi Police, which had named the Deputy High Commissioner of Pakistan High Commission in the FIR, had sent its report to the Ministry of Home Affairs, police said.

The ministry would take a decision and later send it to the external affairs ministry for an appropriate action as Gilani enjoys diplomatic immunity.

Return To Top February 8, 2003

Pakistan lodges strong protest

By Mariana Baabar writing in Pakistan’s Jang

ISLAMABAD: The government on Friday lodged protest with the Indian government, when it summoned its acting High Commissioner Sudhir Vyas to the Foreign Office against what it called "ridiculous and baseless" allegations against its Acting High Commissioner Jalil Abbas Jilani, in New Delhi.

According to diplomatic sources, Pakistan's protest to Sudhir Vyas was verbal and only took a short time. In turn Vyas told the Foreign Office that it was not the Indian government itself, which had made charges against Jilani but was only quoting what the Indian police had charged.

Jilani is alleged to have paid a Kashmiri woman so that she would pass on these funds to the leadership of All Parties Hurriyat Conference. The charges against Jilani become absurd as both countries are observing all the movements of its diplomats and know well, that they are under surveillance.

Islamabad, in a statement, asked Delhi to end the systematic campaign of disinformation against Pakistan. According to a Foreign Office spokesman: "The government of Pakistan has lodged a strong protest with the Indian government over the ridiculous and baseless allegation made by Indian authorities accusing Pakistan's acting High Commissioner Jalil Abbas Jilani of providing money to the representatives of the All Parties Hurriyat Conference."

Pakistan also expressed grave concern over the ongoing campaign of vilification against Pakistan and officials of the Pakistan High Commission in New Delhi.

The spokesman said: "The campaign is part of a strategy by the BJP government to mislead the Indian public opinion to whip up anti-Pakistan hysteria for electoral gains. New Delhi has framed APHC representatives to discredit the freedom movement in Indian occupied Kashmir, as well as to find an excuse for yet another crackdown on the APHC leadership as part of its brutal suppression of the Kashmir people."

Islamabad called upon the government of India to put an end to its systematic campaign of disinformation against Pakistan highly provocative statement and measures, which continue to vitiate the environment between the two countries.

Instead Pakistan reminded the government of India of its responsibilities under the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations as well as the Bilateral Code of Conduct concluded by the two countries in 1992.

"The government of India must discharge the obligations it has assumed under the two agreements to ensure the safety and privileges of officials of the Pakistan High Commission in New Delhi," the spokesman said.

APP adds: Minister for Information and Media Development Sheikh Rashid Ahmed condemned the implication of Pakistan's acting High Commissioner in an FIR by the Indian authorities as the worst example of diplomatic depravity.

"Registering an FIR against acting High Commissioner under POTA law is the worst example of diplomatic depravity," he told reporters while replying to a question here. "They have exhibited their mentality by naming the High Commissioner in a complaint under this law," he said, adding, "they (India) have further exposed their most uncivilised law of the world."

Rejecting all allegations levelled against the top Pakistani diplomat in India, he said this is the continuation of the vilification campaign, which started with baseless allegations and expulsion of our diplomats last month.

Responding to a question regarding statement of an arrested APHC representative before an Indian court, he said anyone can be pressurised to give any statement.

Return To Top February 8, 2003

February 7, 2003


British Troops Will Stay in Iraq For 3 Years
Briefs
Afghan National Army Doing Well in the Field
Korean Developments February 6
Cave-Clearing Ops Proceed in Spin Boldak Area February 6
US Reserve Mobilization as of February 5, 2003 February 6
Russia willing to sell missiles, planes to Pakistan February 5
Afghan troops, Taliban clash near Kandahar February 5
Saddam's Iron Fist Keeps Army in Line February 5
Stratfor On Al Qaeda’s Renewed Campaign February 5
John Pike's Assessment on Russians as a Savior for Space Station February 4
India in demand for arms deals February 4
India offered F-16s, transport aircraft February 4
Pakistan Prime Minister Orders Crackdown on Baluch Tribes February 4

British Troops Will Stay in Iraq For 3 Years

Neil Tweedie of the UK Telegraph says in a February 5 story that between 10-20,000 British troops will remain for 3 years and beyond as part of an American-led stabilization force. This gives an important clue to US plans for Iraq post Mr. Saddam Hussein. The commander of US 3rd Army is expected to military governor.

Excerpts from the story:

1. The British force is expected to control a sector of Baghdad. It is top-heavy with infantry units, allowing it to mount intensive patrols.

2. [The British] have had had to scale down its contingents in the Balkans and West Africa over the past year, with the 2,000-strong force in Kosovo due to be pulled out by the end of April. There are also plans to cut the number of troops in Northern Ireland. Even then, more reserve servicemen and women may be required. Some 6,000 army reservists have been called up, with a warning that they might be asked to serve for a year.

3. American commanders are believed to be reluctant to place the Challenger tanks and Warrior infantry fighting vehicles of the UK's 7th Armoured Brigade too near to their own armoured forces because of the primitive state of British communications, which could lead to confusion in battle and a proliferation of friendly-fire incidents.

4. The disparity in British and US communications equipment is the most serious issue in the two armies working together. The digital radios in US armoured vehicles allow their commanders to send and receive fully-encrypted information, giving them a thorough awareness of the battle via the "tactical internet".

Each radio has a satellite positioning device that automatically sends out the position of the tank or infantry fighting vehicle in question, reducing the chance of friendly fire - "blue on blue" - incidents. British armoured vehicles are equipped with the Clansmen radio dating from the 1960s and 1970s. An analogue system, it has an extremely limited ability to transmit data.

Return To Top February 7, 2003

Briefs

US 101stAirmobile Division Ordered Overseas

The US 101st Airmobile Division has been ordered deployed in one of the final pieces of the buildup against Iraq. It is believed the division will head for Turkey, where the Parliament formally approved the stationing of US troops in-country and the expansion of airbases US forces will require. US forces in the theatre are now at 113,000 and expected to reach 150,000 by mid-February and 200,000 by end February.

Iraq Building Baghdad Defenses

The Associated Press quotes analyst Anthony Cordesman to say that:

Iraq is building a two-ring defense of Baghdad. The Iraqis also are erecting an extensive structure of barriers and other defenses in other key cities, he wrote.

"There are also indications that some elements of the Republican Guards may be training in urban warfare to fight in civilian dress, and that Iraq will deliberately mix such loyalist elements, the security services and popular forces in civilian dress to fight urban battles under conditions where the U.S. and British may find it impossible to distinguish combatants from civilians," Cordesman wrote.

There is no reliable estimate of Iraq's exact military strength, Cordesman said, but he estimates there are 389,000 full-time active duty troops, 2,200-2,600 battle tanks, 3,700 other armored vehicles, 2,400 major artillery weapons and 300 combat aircraft. He estimates Iraq has 850 surface-to-air missile launchers and about 3,000 anti-aircraft guns.

Iraq Shifting Troops To Kuwait Border

The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that

Iraq is moving troops and artillery closer to its southern border with Kuwait and deploying them astride highways in preparation for U.S. attacks, according to military officers with access to the region. Iraqi forces also are increasing intelligence activities along the demilitarized border, sending tough-looking "civilians" to visit the area, the officers said. U.S. commanders, meanwhile, have dispatched crew-cut American "engineers" to the border, the officers said.

Most of the Iraqi troops look ragged, and some complain that they are eating only bread and are not being paid, said officers in the 32-nation U.N. Iraq-Kuwait Observer Mission (UNIKOM), based on the border.

"Some say their families were put under protective custody" to make sure they fight, said a UNIKOM officer who traveled recently on the Iraqi side of the 150-mile border.

North Korea Threatens Preemptive Action

North Korea issued its most belligerent statement yet, saying that preemptive action was not the province of the US alone. It again demanded direct talks. In Washington the Administration came under attack from critics demanding tougher action on North Korea. The US again said it had no plans to use military force to resolve the nuclear program dispute, but would not enter talks unless North Korea promised to abide by earlier agreements to shut down its weapons program.

Insulation Damage Doubted As Columbia Crash Cause

NASA is growing increasingly disinclined to believe that Columbia crashed because of lift-off damage to its tiles caused by a block of insulation foam. Among causes being investigated are space debris or orbiting rocks damaging the wing, or the accidental firing of explosive bolts.

Return To Top February 7, 2003

Afghan National Army Doing Well in the Field

From the American Forces Information Service, an article by Jim Garamone.

U.S. officials in Afghanistan have said the Afghan national army units are gaining operational experience and are working well with coalition troops. The Afghan units are working with U.S. Army Special Forces soldiers, who are advising them in an operational setting. "Reports on the two battalions in the field so far have been very positive," said Army Col. Roger King, spokesman for Combined Joint Task Force 180.

For example, soldiers of the 2nd Battalion of the Afghan national army and Special Forces advisers located a series of arms caches in and around the village of Madr in Bamian Province. One battalion deployed to Orgun-E in Paktika Province. The population of the area, on the border with Pakistan, is majority Pashtun, and the province was a stronghold of the Taliban. When the battalion moved into the area, the locals thought it was another unit of foreign coalition forces, King said.

"The battalion was disciplined and behaved well to the local population," he said. "The people could certainly tell the group wasn't the forces of a warlord." The battalion commander met with the town council and explained to the leaders of the area that the unit was part of the Afghan army, that it was multiethnic and would not respond to the whims of any local warlord. He also explained that the unit was in the area to help the population and to get rid of terrorist elements.

The unit became popular with the people of the area. "They had so many people knocking on the door that the unit sponsored a recruiting drive in Orgun-E and signed up 135 men for the Afghan army," King said.

There have been growing pains, he noted. While the leaders of the unit are very comfortable working at platoon level, they need more training in company and battalion maneuvers. Operational experience is helping the Afghan units learn these lessons. "There was one unit out for two months," King said. "By the end of that time, they were performing pretty well." Based on his own infantry experience, he said, "The unit is adapting to new tactics quickly. They do 'fire and movement,' 'covering fire,' and 'assaulting an objective' just about as well as anyone."

Afghan authorities are working on getting the national army into more places. In addition to Orgun-E, a battalion is now stationed in Bamian, and further plans call for a unit to work with the U.S. Army's 82nd Airborne Division. "It's important for the Afghan national army to get out with the population," a DoD official said. "The people then see that the government is trying to protect them. The army must provide the security so that the economic benefits of peace can follow."

Return To Top February 7, 2003

February 6, 2003


Korean Developments
Cave-Clearing Ops Proceed in Spin Boldak Area
US Reserve Mobilization as of February 5, 2003
Russia willing to sell missiles, planes to Pakistan February 5
Afghan troops, Taliban clash near Kandahar February 5
Saddam's Iron Fist Keeps Army in Line February 5
Stratfor On Al Qaeda’s Renewed Campaign February 5
John Pike's Assessment on Russians as a Savior for Space Station February 4
India in demand for arms deals February 4
India offered F-16s, transport aircraft February 4
Pakistan Prime Minister Orders Crackdown on Baluch Tribes February 4
Briefs From the BBC February 3
UN Assessment of Afghanistan Situation February 3
US Troops Wont Be ready Till mid-March February 3
Briefs February 1


February 6, 2003

Korean Developments

Orbat.com summary & commentary

Feb. 5, 2003 – As most of our readers are aware, as things come to a head over Iraq the US is desperately trying to keep a lid on Iraq. The (subsequently confirmed) leak from the New York Times earlier this week was that twelve B-52 and another twelve B-1 bombers had been put on alert for deployment to Guam, in response to earlier force requests from Admiral Fargo, Commander in Chief, US Pacific Command. Clearly, the Bush administration wishes to be able to intimidate the North Koreans that it has the striking capability to destroy the nuclear facility at Yongbyon. However with the North Koreans intentions, not means are a the ultimate deterrent than .

Here are three recent articles that provide a little insight in to the US administration’s immediate policy concerns and military constraints.

Washington Post:
U.S. Believes N. Korea Rapidly Seeking Stockpile
North Korea Said to See Opportunity in Iraq Crisis

USA Today: Gulf buildup limits options on Korea, officials say

In the long term of course there are other concerns, given that N.Korea’s history as one of the world’s leading proliferators of WMD and WMD delivery technology. The following articles are based largely on Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

International Herald Tribune: North Korean sale to terrorists feared

Financial Times: Washington issues grim warning on N Korea

So what is the administration’s game plan? Once again we must look at the statements from senior administration officials. Senators Question Bush Approach To North Korea

Rumsfeld: Bombers not signal to N. Korea

The Committee is right to be skeptical. Given both the paranoid fatalism as well the propensity for audacious risk-taking among totalitarian N. Korea’s leadership it is likely that the mere threat of deployment will only further speed up North Korean efforts. It is likely that the only thing more preferable than risking conventional confrontation with a US military whose resources are divided, would be to present their nuclear arsenal as a fait accompli at negotiations with an administration finally able to divert energy and resources away from Iraq. However the news of deployment is far less damaging than the Rumsfeld’s semi-apologetic denial of threat.

The only thing that will convince the North Koreans to slow down would be the knowledge of the assured destruction Yongbyon and other valuable WMD related facilities if they proceed, and certain rewards if they do not. Negotiations alone will be long and tiresome given the North Koreans expertise at disruptive behaviour. The USS Pueblo incident and the experience of the 1994 framework agreement should be proof enough of that. The North Koreans through sheer intimidation have consistently managed to successfully transform their willingness to use terrorism, proliferation and the threat of war in to bargaining advantages rather than international liabilities. The only negotiating tactic that they truly respect is an uncompromising will that refuses to be cowed by the threat of escalation, and backed up by overwhelming offensive force. Given the shortage of conventional forces in the theatre at this time, that might call for communication of the sort since we haven’t seen since the worst days of the Cold War superpower confrontation.

Return To Top February 6, 2003

Cave-Clearing Ops Proceed in Spin Boldak Area

From American Forces Press Service, by Jim Garamone

WASHINGTON, Feb. 5, 2003 -- Coalition soldiers continue to clear caves in the Spin Boldak area, U.S. officials said in Afghanistan.

Between 300 and 350 soldiers are involved in Operation Mongoose, said Army Maj. Bob Hepner, a spokesman with Combined Joint Task Force–180.

He said 75 caves that could hide men or equipment were identified in the area. To date, 46 have been cleared. Soldiers and European-ally F-16 fighter pilots destroyed another 15 caves -- the soldiers marked them with lasers and the pilots sealed them with bombs.

The operations started Jan. 28 when U.S. Special Forces soldiers, 82nd Airborne Division troopers and Afghan militia went into the Adi Gahr Mountains after local Afghans reported that followers of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar were holed up there. Heavy fighting ensued; U.S. officials reported 18 enemy fighters were killed in the engagement.

Hekmatyar, a former prime minister, had been generally thought to be an unaligned, renegade guerrilla leader. Flyers distributed last year in Afghan refugee camps in Pakistan, however, claimed Hekmatyar had joined forces with al Qaeda terrorists.

Following the mountain battle, coalition soldiers found arms caches, intelligence information and animals in the caves. "Some of the caves were used for a long time," officials in Afghanistan said.

They said Operation Mongoose will continue "until it's done."

[Orbat.com note: Almost since they began early last year this editor believed that the rocket attacks on Coalition forces and facilities within Afghanistan were the work of fundamentalist faction leader Gulbuddin Hikmatyar rather than Al-Qaeda. The latter’s degree of commitment as well as desire for psychological impact and substantial casualties drive them to seek closely engage with the enemy. This lot seemed far more typically Afghan in their unwillingness to expose themselves to undue risk, even at the cost of the attack’s reduced effectiveness. Hikmatyar, his personal ambitions thwarted, chose to break with the interim government and bombard Kabul with thousands of rockets in the long years of chaos between the collapse of the communist government and the emergence of the Taleban. Hikmatyar also has a deep dislike of Americans which he was unafraid to demonstrate even at the height of the war with the Soviets, public refusing to meet President Reagan during a 1985 visit to New York. This was despite the fact that Pakistani ISI distribution policy favoured his group with the largest share of CIA delivered arms. Today there may be reasons to believe that Iran is offering him assistance. ]

Return To Top February 6, 2003

National Guard And Reserve Mobilized As Of February 5, 2003

Extracts from AP United States Department of Defense News Release

This week the Army, Navy, and Marine Corps each announce an increase of reservists on active duty in support of the partial mobilization. The Air Force announces a decrease. The net collective result is 16,979 more reservists than last week.

The total number of reserve personnel currently on active duty in support of the partial mobilization for the Army National Guard and Army Reserve is 80,002; Naval Reserve, 5,604; Air National Guard and Air Force Reserve, 11,729; Marine Corps Reserve, 12,283; and the Coast Guard Reserve, 1,985. This brings the total Reserve and National Guard on active duty to 111,603 including both units and individual augmentees.

At any given time, services may mobilize some units and individuals while demobilizing others, making it possible for these figures to either increase or decrease.

A cumulative roster of all National Guard and Reserve who are currently on active duty can be found at < a href=http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Feb2003/d20030205ngr.pdf”>http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Feb2003/d20030205ngr.pdf

Return To Top February 6, 2003

February 5, 2003


Russia willing to sell missiles, planes to Pakistan
Afghan troops, Taliban clash near Kandahar
Saddam's Iron Fist Keeps Army in Line
Stratfor On Al Qaeda’s Renewed Campaign
John Pike's Assessment on Russians as a Savior for Space Station February 4
India in demand for arms deals February 4
India offered F-16s, transport aircraft February 4
Pakistan Prime Minister Orders Crackdown on Baluch Tribes February 4
Briefs From the BBC February 3
UN Assessment of Afghanistan Situation February 3
US Troops Wont Be ready Till mid-March February 3
Briefs February 1
28 Pakistan Government its Nationals Arrested in Italy Have Al-Qaeda Links February 1
Iraq January 31
Final Israeli Parliament Tally January 31
Division on Turkey shield bid January 31

Russia willing to sell missiles, planes to Pakistan

Extracts from an article By Aslam Khan writing in the Jang of Pakistan. [Editor’s Note: Pakistan’s rapprochement with Russia is a logical counter to the increasingly stronger Washington-Delhi axis. Pakistan has turned to Russia for weapons before. A late-1960s deal to reequip the entire Pakistan Air Force with Russian equipment was scrapped under Indian pressure, but eventually small quantities of T-55 tanks and Mi-8 series helicopters were shipped.]

ISLAMABAD: Russia is willing to sell Pakistan air defence missiles and fighter planes, reliable sources revealed to The News here on Tuesday. They said Moscow is willing to sell air-defence missiles to Pakistan, though likely not the S-300U missiles for which Musharraf will request to Russian President Vladimir Putin. From Moscow's point of view, according to the sources, Russia's recent aviation deals with India will more than make up for the new sales to Pakistan. Pakistan is interested in buying Russian aircraft to help bolster its air force. Islamabad also seeks Russian supersonic anti-ship missiles, though Moscow is unlikely to sell either of these anytime in the near future, the sources said.

However, by steering clear of ground or naval supplies, Moscow can avoid straining ties with India or trying to compete with the Ukrainian arms industry's established relationships. The visit will also see Musharraf and President Vladimir Putin using the opportunity to redefine relations and increase strategic options for

These initial discussions are, however, unlikely to produce any major breakthroughs: Talk on Kashmir, Iraq, the war against terrorism and even economic cooperation are all general discussions with little chance of instantaneous payback.

For Islamabad, building new ties with Moscow provides an opportunity to gain some assistance in dealing with India. Russia is India's top arms supplier and thus has a fair amount of leverage with the South Asian giant.

Pakistan hopes that Moscow reduces its arms sales to India or at least considers Pakistan's interests in any future weapons deals. In addition, Islamabad is looking to Moscow to expand its strategic ties internationally. Pakistan has seen first the US and then long-time ally China open new levels of dialogue with India, and leaders in Islamabad feel they must take similar steps to ensure that the international community continues to take its interests into account.

Although the broader strategic discussions will take years -- if not decades -- to develop, there are areas of concrete cooperation upon which the two nations plan to build their new relationship.

Both Islamabad and Moscow have similar, though not exact, interests in new oil and gas pipelines across Pakistan. Moscow sees these as a way to preserve Russian influence and involvement in any new export routes from Central Asia. Islamabad sees Russian involvement as a way of strengthening the chances of projects success, and of reducing Indian resistance to having Pakistan as part of the energy supply corridor from Iran and Central Asia. Sources say Musharraf will also raise the issue of building an oil pipeline from Kazakhstan through Central Asia to Pakistan, in addition to existing proposals for the Trans-Afghan gas pipeline and the Iran-India gas pipeline.

Both presidents see the real potential for defence cooperation as well. Moscow would like to enter the Pakistani arms market, but has been reticent due to potential objections from India and the competition from Ukraine. The first deals on the table are likely to be for air-defence equipment, including surface-to-air missiles and radars.

Return To Top February 5, 2003

Afghan troops, Taliban clash near Kandahar

From Pakistan’s Jang

Afghan government forces clashed with suspected Taliban fighters on Tuesday northwest of Kandahar, an Afghan official said, as Dutch aircraft reinforced US bombing of caves in the province. The fighting broke out around noon in a mountainous area in the northern part of Shawali Kot district about 15 km northeast of Kandahar, said a senior official of the regional government, who asked not to be named.

He told Reuters both sides had used heavy weapons in the clashes, but he had no details of casualties or the number of fighters involved. "According to our intelligence reports, there were the Taliban in the area," the official said. "So we sent out our troops to look for them and the fighting began." He said the government had since sent reinforcements into the area and the fighting was continuing. The officials said it was unclear if US or other foreign forces were involved.

Two Dutch F-16 aircraft bombed the cave complex early on Tuesday as part of a follow-up to a US-led attack on the area last week, a Dutch military official said. "A cave complex where it was suspected that Taliban fighters or al-Qaeda fighters were hiding was bombed," Jos van der Leij, a spokesman for the Dutch airforce told Reuters. This was the first time since the start of their mission in Afghanistan that Dutch F-16s have used their weapons.

US troops fired anti-tank rockets into a cave in the complex on Monday after spotting a man moving into it armed with an AK-47 rifle. Col Roger King, a spokesman at the US military headquarters at Bagram north of Kabul, said US troops had so far identified 75 caves in the complex, cleared 49 and destroyed 12 with explosives.

Return To Top February 5, 2003

Saddam's iron fist keeps army in line

For full story click Washington Times

Iraqi generals who might be tempted to heed calls from U.S. and Arab officials to mount a coup against President Saddam Hussein could be dissuaded by recalling one fellow general's name: Kamel Sachet.

In 1998, Saddam ordered Gen. Sachet's execution, reportedly because Gen. Sachet had been unlucky enough to receive a letter from a former Iraqi chief of staff who had become an outspoken critic of his old boss after finding refuge in Denmark.

With such tactics — in addition to ensuring his top men are implicated in his worst deeds and by stacking his military command with close relatives and members of his clan — Saddam may believe he is coup-proof.

Saddam's survival for a quarter of a century has depended on a ruthless response to any hint of dissent. Some have been executed for plotting against him, and Saddam is believed to have killed scores of army commanders after his spies in their ranks reported signs of disloyalty.

Return To Top February 5, 2003

Stratfor On Al Qaeda’s Renewed Campaign

For full article click Stratfor.com

A string of attacks against Western citizens and assets in recent days suggests that al Qaeda has launched a new offensive. A surge in al Qaeda activity will force Washington and European governments to think seriously not only about how -- and whether -- to move forward with campaigns against both Iraq and al Qaeda, but also about strategies for dealing with intractable political problems that continue to fuel al Qaeda's activity.

Return To Top February 5, 2003 February 4, 2003


John Pike's Assessment on Russians as a Savior for Space Station
India in demand for arms deals
India offered F-16s, transport aircraft
Pakistan Prime Minister Orders Crackdown on Baluch Tribes
Briefs From the BBC February 3
UN Assessment of Afghanistan Situation February 3
US Troops Wont Be ready Till mid-March February 3
Briefs February 1
28 Pakistan Government its Nationals Arrested in Italy Have Al-Qaeda Links February 1
Iraq January 31
Final Israeli Parliament Tally January 31
Division on Turkey shield bid January 31
Pakistan plans to strip Pakistani Kashmir Government of all powers January 31
Attack Bangladesh: Indian Fundamentalist Leader January 30
Pakistan January 30
Bush Sets His Military Three Conditions for Late February Offensive January 30


John Pike’s Assessment of Russia as a Savior for the Space Station

[Editor: With the Shuttle grounded, Mr. John Pike of Globalsecurity.com gives his assessment of Russia’s ability to keep the Space Station going. Mr. Pike is a leading non-partisan American military and space expert.]

Click Here for full article.

MOSCOW – Russia launched an unmanned cargo ship to the international space station Sunday, a day after the loss of the space shuttle

NASA plans had called for expanding the international space station, or ISS, during five shuttle flights this year. But space shuttle program manager Ron Dittemore said Saturday that flights would be put on hold until officials determine what caused the Columbia to break up.

With all space shuttles grounded, the health of the international space station suddenly hinges largely on the ailing Russian space program, and experts expressed doubts on Sunday about whether Russia was up to the task.

The Russian Interfax news service Sunday night quoted one unnamed Russian space expert as saying that "closing down the international space station this year is inevitable," even if shuttle flights were halted only briefly.

Keeping the station occupied is only one challenge. Another is keeping the giant complex of trusses, modules and solar panels from sinking out of its orbit - generally about 250 miles up - and burning up in the atmosphere.

Normally, each time a space shuttle visits and docks with the space station - and five visits were scheduled this year - it burns its engines enough to nudge the station higher, countering the steady descent of the station's orbit. The space station has a surface area about as big as two football fields, and it is slowly brought toward Earth by friction as it rubs against the outermost edge of the atmosphere.

But NASA officials said Sunday that the Progress vehicles were able to accomplish the same thing and that the space station had stored propellant that would also help it maintain its orbit.

But American experts and Russian space officials and experts questioned whether Russia would be able to supply any more than it had already committed to the program.

Russia, the only other nation able to service the international space station reliably, is physically capable of launching only the two manned Soyuz flights and the three Progress- class cargo freighters, which it had already pledged to send to the station this year. Should the shuttle be grounded, the unnamed expert told Interfax, Russia would need to send three more Progress ships this year to prevent the space station from being mothballed. Even if Russia had the money to build those rockets, they could not be ready until 2004, experts told Interfax.

That leads to the troubling calculus about keeping the station in space, said John E. Pike, a space technology expert and the director of GlobalSecurity.org, a Washington research group.

"Everybody's going to be looking closely at the inventory of Progresses and Soyuz boosters," he said, "running that against the need to reboost the station. Maybe the answer is that there's more than enough, or just enough, or more than enough for this year, but after that there's a real problem."

He said that if the Russian craft could not fill the bill, NASA would have to try to cobble together a tanker of some sort. If the station is not continually boosted higher, he said, trouble would be inevitable and would intensify the lower the station drifted.

Another article on the Globalsecurity.org site says [click here for full article]:

Russian officials told the Interfax news agency they could only launch three resupply ships this year, fewer than what would be needed with no shuttle flights.

"Russia is short of funds and will not be able to build the required number of Soyuz and Progress space ships that are necessary for the trouble-free functioning of the ISS," said Boris Y. Chertok, a pioneer of the Soviet space program and consultant to Energiya Design Bureau, the corporation that builds most Russian space vehicles.

Other Russian space officials said if they were given funding, they could use Russian Proton-heavy rockets to complete the station, something they see as a high priority.

Return To Top February 4, 2003

India in demand for arms deals

An article by Rajat Pandit of the Times of India

NEW DELHI: Several countries and armament giants are eyeing India with unconcealed glee these days. The wooing game is definitely on. India, after all, plans to spend an estimated $ 100 billion on weapon systems over the next decade.

India, of course, is keen on diversification of weapon suppliers and joint co-production ventures. "India is looking for precision strike capabilities and sophisticated force-multipliers. The government also wants to use large defence procurements as a leverage in foreign policy," says an official.

India, which bought arms worth $ 7,200 million during 1998-2001, is now all set to become the largest arms importer among developing nations by supplanting UAE which imported arms worth $ 10,800 million during that period.

An indicator of this is the forthcoming Aero-India 2003 show at Bangalore. Around 180 prominent companies from 22 countries are taking part, with French prime minister Jean Pierre Raffarin and British defence procurement minister Lord Bach, among others, themselves leading delegations.

Russia, of course, leads the pack. It hopes to sew up the Admiral Gorkshov aircraft carrier package deal by March-April. This $ 3-billion-package includes a squadron each of MiG-29K jets and anti-submarine Kamov helicopters, as also the lease of four TU-22m3 long-range strategic bombers and two Akula-class nuclear submarines. India is also likely to sign the deal for 18 Smerch multiple-launch rocket systems in the next few months.

The Russians are also flaunting their Advanced Jet Trainer (AJT), the "MiG-AT", during the airshow. Also on display will be the Czech-American "L-159B" trainer. The lucrative 1.2 billion pound deal is, however, likely to go to the British Aerospace-manufactured "Hawk" AJTs.

The French and the Israelis are not far behind the Russians. India, for instance, is soon going to ink the $ 1.8-billion deal for six French Scorpene killer submarines. France is also keen on the $ 8-billion deal for 130 Mirage-2000H fighters.

Israel, in turn, has rapidly emerged as one of the largest defence collaborators with India. After several multi-million deals for "Searcher" Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and hand-held thermal imagers, "Green Pine", man-portable and Aerostat radars, India is now finalising the $ 1-billion "Phalcon" early warning radar systems agreement with Israel.

The US, after several years of sanctions, has also joined the race now. After clinching the $ 146-million deal for eight AN/TPQ-37 firefinder weapon-locating radars, the US is offering advanced ground sensors, C-130J Hercules heavy-lift and the P-3C Orion maritime reconnaissance aircraft to India.

Return To Top February 4, 2003

India offered F-16s, transport aircraft

From Pakistan’s Jang

NEW DELHI: US military aviation giant Lockheed Martin Aeronautics on Monday offered a lavish range of hardware including F-16 fighter jets to replace India's ageing fleet of Soviet-built MiG-21 warplanes as the US army chief of staff and Italian Defence Minister Antonio Martino kicked off visits to India to improve defence cooperation.

Meanwhile, a British defence official said he hoped India would soon decide whether to approve a billion-dollar contract for trainer jets that Britain hopes to provide. The offer, including technology transfers and joint ventures, came ahead of a visit to India this week by French Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin, expected to discuss an eight-billion-dollar Mirage-2000 deal with India.

The fight for India's aviation market comes as speculation mounts that Delhi has put plans to buy equipment like badly-needed jet trainers on the backburner and is instead focusing on acquiring "operational assets".

Both France and Britain have fought since 1983 to supply 66 such trainers at a cost of $1.63 billion but now it seems they will have to wait yet another year, a senior defence ministry source said. "We were very young when this particular race started but if we are now invited then we believe our T-50 is the only supersonic trainer that would meet the requirement of the Indian air force," said Lockheed regional vice president Dennys Plessas in New Delhi.

"And if India wants to lease used F-16 from the United States government then we can extend supply and technological support and if India wants one F-16 for four of its MiG-21s, then we can make it in India," said Plessas. The US firm also invited India to participate in a Lockheed-led Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) global project, launched last October. The programme, worth $20 billion, has 100 overseas partners and plans to manufacture 2,000 aircraft, which can serve both the navy and air force, for Britain and the US before selling to others.

US Army chief of staff General Eric K Shinseki met top Indian defence officials in New Delhi. "He is basically here to talk to his counterparts in the military and ministry of defence." The Indian defence ministry said Shinseki, on a farewell tour of Asia ahead of his expected retirement, met his Indian counterpart NC Vij as well as the chief of the Indian Navy Madhvendra Singh.

He met Defence Minister George Fernandes on Monday afternoon for about 40 minutes, a defence ministry official said. Indian officials provided no details of the talks, but media reports said the situation along the Line of Control was to be discussed.

A British defence official said on Monday he hoped India would soon decide whether to approve a billion-dollar contract for trainer jets that Britain hopes to provide. "I hope an early decision can be reached. All price negotiations for the deal have closed. Now we are awaiting the government decision," said Jim Catchpole, first secretary, defence supply.

Meanwhile French Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin said in an interview on Monday that France wanted deeper ties and a strategic partnership with India. Raffarin is to arrive in India this week on his first official visit outside Europe since he took office last year. Italian Defence Minister Antonio Martino kicked off a three-day official visit to India on Monday with talks with top-level officials, including his counterpart George Fernandes. Sources said Indian officials could during the meetings raise the issue of its plans to buy 66 jet trainer aircraft in a deal worth around $1.6 billion.

[Editor: Orbat.com had mentioned the US offer of F-16s to India several months ago. At that time Block 15s were being offered and India did not find this acceptable.]

Return To Top February 4, 2003

Pakistan Prime Minister Orders Crackdown on Baluch Tribes

Rauf Klasra writing in Pakistan’s Jang

ISLAMABAD: The Jamali government gave a go-ahead to the law-enforcement agencies for a grand operation against Bugti and Mazari tribes, involved in disruption of gas supply to the various parts of the country in order to establish the writ of the law in the troubled areas of Balochistan.

The decision was taken at a high-level meeting, presided over by the prime minister and attended by federal and provincial government authorities, in Islamabad on Monday, sources said. However, they added, the Balochistan government asked the Centre not to launch any operation in the troubled areas unless cleared by the provincial government.

The help of the ISI, whose officials also attended the meeting, could also be sought for the operation. The sources said Prime Minister Zafrullah Khan Jamali and President General Musharraf also discussed on Sunday the launching of the operation against those involved in the blowing up of gas pipelines and suspension of water and power supplies.

The sources said the government had decided to get tough on the tribesmen who were blackmailing it. It was noted that if the writ of the law was not established in the troubled areas, the tribes would continue to exploit gas companies and the government as they have been doing in the past.

The sources said the meeting was also against the revision of the agreement with the Bugtis that expired on December 31. The Bugtis, who have been asked to nominate their representative for talks to be held between the gas companies and the tribesmen, would not be given any big concession as was being widely expected.

The Bugtis would be offered to accept the old agreement with the companies that envisages payment of millions of rupees to the tribe each year. The sources said the meeting decided that the area along the gas pipelines should not be abandoned. It was also decided that projects for setting up schools, roads and other such development-oriented projects would be launched there. Police pickets and regular monitoring system would also be established in the area.

[Editor: From Washington’s viewpoint, this is a good development: Pakistan’s frontier tribes are out of control – if ever they can be said to have been in control – and are endangering the stability of Pakistan as well as hampering the war in Afghanistan.]

Return To Top February 4, 2003

February 3, 2003

Briefs From the BBC
UN Assessment of Afghanistan Situation
US Troops Wont Be ready Till mid-March
Briefs February 1
28 Pakistan Government its Nationals Arrested in Italy Have Al-Qaeda Links February 1
Iraq January 31
Final Israeli Parliament Tally January 31
Division on Turkey shield bid January 31
Pakistan plans to strip Pakistani Kashmir Government of all powers January 31
Attack Bangladesh: Indian Fundamentalist Leader January 30
Pakistan January 30
Bush Sets His Military Three Conditions for Late February Offensive January 30
Afghanistan January 29
From the Brookings Institute January 29
Letter to the Editor from Keith Loescher January 28
Iraq Buildup: Extracts from the London Times January 28

Briefs

German Chancellor Suffers Heavy Defeats

From the BBC: For Full Story Click Here.

German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's party has suffered crushing defeats in two key state elections.

According to exit polls, the Social Democrats failed to gain power in Hesse and lost their hold on Lower Saxony - Mr Schroeder's home state.

The elections are being seen as a crucial test of Mr Schroeder's four-month-old federal government.

The conservative Christian Democrats were set to take control of Lower Saxony with 46% of the vote, and surge to an increased majority with 50% support in Hesse.

Observers say Mr Schroeder's anti-war campaign message failed to strike a chord with voters, who were more concerned about rising taxes, unemployment and a stumbling economy.

[The BBC says the local defeats may ironically help the Chancellor at the national level.]

Progress M-47 launched for Space Station Resupply

From the BBC, for full article Click here.

An unmanned Russian cargo rocket, headed for the International Space Station (ISS), has been launched from the Baikonur cosmodrome in Kazakhstan as planned. The Russians had already made clear that, despite the Columbia space shuttle disaster in the US, they would go ahead with their launch. The Progress M-47 blasted off at 1259 GMT from the Baikonur facility, which Russia leases from the ex-Soviet Central Asian state. The vessel, which is controlled from the ground, is set to bring supplies to the three-man crew aboard the ISS - two Americans and one Russian.

[The article briefly explores the pros and cons of using Russian space launchers now that the Shuttle will likely be grounded for some years.]

Serbia Seeks Permission To Post Troops in Kosovo

From the BBC, for full article Click Here

Serbia has asked Nato for permission to send its troops back into Kosovo, in the first such request by its reformist government since the ousting of former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic. Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic made the request in a letter to Nato's commander for south-eastern Europe, Admiral Gregory Johnson.

He said the Serbian troops would fill any vacuum caused by Nato soldiers being posted to Iraq - although there are no immediate plans to do so - or to compensate for a planned reduction in the Nato force in Kosovo. Mr Djindjic also expressed concern that local ethnic Albanian authorities would end up in charge of the province's security "without consulting authorities in Serbia and Yugoslavia".

[Kosovo criticized the request; KFOR says it has no plan to induct additional forces in the event existing forces are reduced.]

Kosovo Albanians Seek Independence

From the BBC, for full story Click Here

Kosovo's Albanians have been hoping for independence for 11 years, and they still are. It is the main goal of all Albanian political parties, moderate or radical. "The Albanians' national objective is recognition of [Kosovo's] independence by the USA and EU, with the aim of calming the region and our neighbours, and then walking towards Europe and civilised western world", says Ibrahim Rugova, leader of the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK).

Return To Top February 3, 2003

UN Assessment of Afghanistan Situation

From the Islamic Republic’s News Agency IRNA

UNSC: Amid 'remarkable' gains, challenges persist in Afghanistan

The top United Nations envoy for Afghanistan told the Security Council last Friday that while impressive gains had been made over the past year, the country still faces tough challengesand the peace process was "far from secure" amid worrying reports thatsupport for the remnants of the Taliban might be growing in some areas, said a press release from the UN Information Center (UNIC) in Tehran.

Briefing the council in an open meeting in New York, Lakhdar Brahimi, Secretary-General Kofi Annan's special representative for Afghanistan, stressed that while in 2002 the challenge was to shore upthe fragile foundations of peace, this year Afghanistan would have to meet the rising expectations of its people, namely "strengthen and build on the foundations of the state, and address the political and security uncertainties."

Reviewing the first year of the Bonn peace process, Brahimi underscored that major political milestones had been reached on time, including the holding of the Emergency Loya Jirga and the establishment of the Transitional Administration.

At the same time, he noted that this year's agenda for Afghanistanwill be every bit as challenging, if not more so. While he was optimistic that the "remarkable progress" made to date could be capitalized on and the challenges ahead could be met, he cautioned that further advancement will require the continued commitment of the Afghan people to the process together with the sustained engagement ofthe international community.

Towards that goal, President Karzai has been discussing the need for the government to articulate - and for the international communityto support - a clear plan of action setting out the main goals for coming year.

Going forward, Brahimi said, the focus would be on solidifying thekey institutions of the state, pursuing national reconciliation, and showing tangible results on reconstruction projects to build the economy and increase confidence in the government.

Brahimi told council members that too many Afghans felt excluded from the government and the political transformation under way.

"The door should be open to those who wished to participate in good faith," he said. "Leaving them outside the fold led to a growing incentive to undermine the peace process."

Despite the relatively calm security situation, incidents continued to occur, as a result of inter-factional tension and sporadic terrorist activity. Today, Brahimi said, a bus carrying 16 passengers detonated an explosive device as it approached a bridge to the southwest of Kandahar.

Investigations were ongoing in that incident, in which 12 people have reportedly died. Across the country, tensions between factions remained.

In the west, fighting broke out recently in the province of Badghis, where the authority of Ismael Khan was being challenged by the local Governor, Gul Muhammad.

So the overall peace process in Afghanistan needed to progress "much further before we can safely said it is irreversible," Brahimi said. With a range of doubts lingering in their own country, Afghans were watching closely developments elsewhere, fearing that they might be forgotten again.

"[Afghans] do not clamour for international assistance for the sake of international assistance," Brahimi said, "but they understand all too well how vulnerable they still are to forces that, if unchecked, might consume them again and undo the significant progress of the past year.

Return To Top February 3, 2003

U.S. troops won't be ready to fight Iraq until at least mid-March

From Globalsecurity.orgGlobalsecurity.org, article from the Knight-Ridder Newspaper Group, dated January 27, 2003.

By Drew Brown

CAMP DOHA, Kuwait - While the Bush administration keeps warning that time is running out for Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein to disarm, the U.S. troops, tanks and supplies needed to make war against Baghdad won't be ready for a possible invasion until mid-March at the earliest.

After weeks of deployment orders, an estimated 60,000 troops are in the Persian Gulf region and another 100,000 are due to follow them.

But the U.S. ground presence in Kuwait now is at less than 20,000 soldiers, a small fraction of those required to invade Iraq.

Privately, U.S. military officers in Kuwait voice skepticism over an assessment from the Pentagon that American forces will be ready for war by late February if President Bush orders military action.

Some retired officers and military experts agree.

"You could conceivably be two months or more away in order to satisfy every ground commander," said retired Gen. Wesley K. Clark, the former NATO commander who oversaw the 1999 allied effort that ousted Serbian forces from Kosovo. "The force isn't there yet."

Though the Pentagon's war plans remain secret, a number of senior officials have indicated that an invasion force to be massed largely in Kuwait probably would consist of three heavy Army divisions, a light division, one Marine Expeditionary Force and a contingent of British troops and armor.

So far, only the Army's 3rd Infantry Division, which has been training in Kuwait since last spring, has significant numbers of troops, tanks and other armored vehicles on the ground. The last of the division's 19,000 soldiers and their equipment should be in place and combat-ready by mid-February.

Two squadrons of cargo ships began unloading tanks, armored vehicles and other equipment and supplies for the 60,000-man 1st Marine Expeditionary Force a little more than 10 days ago. Marine Corps officers describe the arrival of personnel and equipment as "robust and continuous," though they decline to say when they expect their forces to be ready for action.

The Army announced eight days ago that its 4th Infantry Division at Fort Hood, Texas, would spearhead a 37,000-member task force as part of the buildup. But the division is still loading its equipment aboard ships in Corpus Christi, Texas, which could take another week or more. Transport by ship to the Persian Gulf takes about 18 to 21 days, according to GlobalSecurity.org, a Washington-area research group that tracks military and intelligence issues.

Three other Army divisions, the 1st Calvary, also at Fort Hood, the 101st Airborne at Fort Campbell, Ky., and the 1st Armored, based in Germany, haven't received orders to deploy but could as early as this week.

The Navy has drawn up plans to deploy as many as seven of its 12 carrier battle groups. But Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld hasn't yet decided how many carriers will be in the final battle plans, said a senior Defense Department official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. The aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt will head to the eastern Mediterranean within the next week, the official said.

The 4th Infantry Division's helicopters, artillery, Humvees and other vehicles can be transported to the region by C-5 and C-17 cargo jets, but it would take as many as 500 sorties to deploy the entire division, according to military officials familiar with the 4th Infantry's logistics.

Such a massive deployment would further be complicated because about 25 percent of the C-5 fleet, which first took to the skies in 1970, is down at any given time because of repairs and maintenance.

"It really has been a hurry-up-and-wait kind of process, in that a lot of troops have gotten deployment notices in the last couple of weeks, but it's going to take a long time to get their equipment there," said Patrick Garret, a military analyst for GlobalSecurity.org.

It takes roughly 30 to 45 days to deploy a tank-heavy Army division overseas, according to Clark. Once on the ground, troops have to "marry up" with their equipment, move to forward staging areas and get organized. Troops must be trained. Commanders have to draw up battle plans and carry out rehearsals. This all can take weeks even under optimal conditions.

Still, "there's no question of the outcome," said retired Gen. Barry McCaffrey, who led the 24th Infantry Division in the famous "left hook" that cut off the Iraqi occupation army in Kuwait during the 1991 Persian Gulf War.

McCaffrey thinks the preponderance of the ground attack forces could be in the region within 30 days. As they were preparing for battle, Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps jets could begin bombing targets in and around Baghdad and other strategic sites. Special operations troops could attack Scud missile sites and suspected chemical and biological facilities. Other efforts could focus on psychological operations to convince Iraqi soldiers to surrender.

But McCaffrey admits that generals, by their very nature, are cautious: "If left to the generals, we would still be there another year" before attacking. "If I was commanding a division that was going in, I would be fighting to get the entire team on the ground and let them acclimatize for a month before commencing operations," he said.

Return To Top February 3, 2003

February 1, 2003

Briefs
28 Pakistani Nationals Arrested For Al-Qaeda Links in Italy; Pakistan Government Denies Charges Against Them
Iraq January 31
Final Israeli Parliament Tally January 31
Division on Turkey shield bid January 31
Pakistan plans to strip Pakistani Kashmir Government of all powers January 31
Attack Bangladesh: Indian Fundamentalist Leader January 30
Pakistan January 30
Bush Sets His Military Three Conditions for Late February Offensive January 30
Afghanistan January 29
From the Brookings Institute January 29
Letter to the Editor from Keith Loescher January 28
Iraq Buildup: Extracts from the London Times January 28
German troops to protect U.S. bases January 28
Israel's Daily Haaretz on the New Mossad Chief January 28
Canadian troops join Iraq buildup Soldiers could be at front under British deployment January 27

Briefs

Sharon could stand trial in Belgium

Haartez of Israel for full story. BRUSSELS - The Belgian Senate ratified two key amendments early Friday aiming to keep alive a ten-year-old war crimes law under which international leaders can be indicted. Under the new amendments, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon could stand trial in a Belgian court after he retires from Israeli politics.

News of the Absurd

Sources report a US soldier broke his leg while searching a cave complex in Afghanistan. It seems the media are getting increasingly desperate in trying to find evidence of US casualties in Afghanistan.

HQ US 1st Infantry Division Ordered to Turkey

2000 men from the HQ of the US 1st Infantry Division in Germany have been ordered to Turkey. The point of interest is will they take over the 37,000 troops of Task Force Iron Horse built around the 4th Infantry Division or if this is an advance movement of the division itself. In the latter case US troops will eventually total the 80,000 the US wanted in the first place.

US Advises Diplomatic Families To Return from Saudi, Kuwait

Full story in the Arabnews.com.

The US State Department has issued a travel warning on Saudi Arabia authorizing the dependents of American diplomatic staff in the Kingdom to return to the US if they wish to do so. It has also recommended US private citizens in the country to look “rigorously”...

Return To Top February 1, 2003

28 Pakistani Nationals Arrested For Al-Qaeda Links in Italy; Pakistan Government Denies Charges Against Them

From Pakistan’s Jang

NAPLES: Italian police have arrested 28 Pakistani men suspected of links to al-Qaeda in one of the biggest anti-terrorism operations Italy has seen since the September 11 attacks on the United States.

Military police burst into an apartment in central Naples on Wednesday night as part of a routine sweep against illegal immigration and ended up discovering enough explosives to blow up a three-storey building, officials said on Friday.

They arrested all 28 men staying in the apartment after finding 800 grams of explosives, 70 metres of fuse and various electronic detonators crammed behind a false wall. Religious text, photos of Jihad martyrs, piles of false documents, maps of the Naples area, addresses of contacts around the world and more than 100 mobile telephones were also found in the run-down lodgings, police said.

A judicial source said the maps had various targets marked out on them, including the headquarters of Nato's southern European command, the US consulate in Naples and a US naval base at Capodichino, just outside the port city.

Lieutenant Colonel Pat Barnes, a spokesman for the US European Command in Stuttgart, Germany, said protection levels at all the US naval facilities in Italy were raised one notch on Thursday night as a result of the arrests.

In a statement, the police said they believed the men, aged 20 to 48, were members of al-Qaeda network. "The men have been arrested and charged with association with international terrorism, illegal possession of explosive material, falsification of documents and receiving stolen goods," the statement from Naples police headquarters said.

The police said the explosive material was sufficient to make a bomb capable of blowing up a three-storey building and that some of the fuse was laced with highly flammable nitroglycerine. As well as the religious texts written in Urdu, cuttings of Pakistani newspapers and manuscripts of "God is great" were found.

Meanwhile, Pakistan's Foreign Office said allegations of planning sabotage levelled against 28 Pakistanis arrested in Italy were unfounded. "The circumstances suggest that the allegations being levelled against them are baseless," spokesman Aziz Ahmed Khan told newsmen while commenting on the reports.

He said Pakistan's ambassador in Italy Zafar Hilali was in constant touch with the concerned authorities and had requested counsel access to the detainees. Pakistan's ambassador to Italy Zafar Hilali denied the men were terrorists and said the arrests appeared to form part of a campaign of targeting innocent Pakistanis living in Italy.

"According to my information none of these men had anything whatsoever to do with terrorism, none of them had anything like explosives," he told PTV by phone. He said 24 of the 28 men had applied for permits to work in Italy and were legal, adding that they were unfortunate only because they were living in a house owned by the Mafia.

Return To Top February 1, 2003 Iraq
Final Israeli Parliament Tally
Division on Turkey shield bid
Pakistan plans to strip Pakistani Kashmir Government of all powers
Attack Bangladesh: Indian Fundamentalist Leader January 30
Pakistan January 30
Bush Sets His Military Three Conditions for Late February Offensive January 30
Afghanistan January 29
From the Brookings Institute January 29
Letter to the Editor from Keith Loescher January 28
Iraq Buildup: Extracts from the London Times January 28
German troops to protect U.S. bases January 28
Israel's Daily Haaretz on the New Mossad Chief January 28
Canadian troops join Iraq buildup Soldiers could be at front under British deployment January 27

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All content © 2003 Ravi Rikhye. Reproduction in any form prohibited without express permission.