0200 GMT December 30, 2003

IAEA Says Libyan Nuclear Program Back In Box

·         CNN reports that IAEA, based on its preliminary inspection of 4 Libyan nuclear facilities, says the Libyan nuclear program has been dismantled and is back in the box. Contradictory reports are given as to how close Libya was from developing a nuclear weapon. IAEA director has said he was surprised at how rudimentary the program was; at another time he says his instinct is Libya was 3-7 years away from a weapon. He is struck by the size and scope of clandestine transfers to the Libyan program.

·         In unprecedented show of support and cooperation, 500 aircraft and helicopters from several countries are participating in the Iran earthquake relief effort. Jang of Pakistan says planes are landing every 5 minutes at Kerman, and every 15 minutes at the smaller airfield at Bam, where the eartquake hit. 11,000 injured have been airlifted out for treatment. Local authorities say they have buried more than 25,000 people so far.

·         Reuters reports an Iraqi official says Saddam has admitted to his captors he has $40 billion hidden away and has also been providing information on hidden weapons warehouses. Orbat.com is inclined to be dubious he has given significant information of real value so early in the questioning. Saddam is known to be a great boaster and speaks bombastically. BBC quotes another source as saying Saddam is giving names of people in the insurgency but no details on money. On december 21st the US commander Joint Chief's said that despite facing questioning from the "best" interrogators, Saddam is "not being very cooperative". To be fair, that was a week ago and a lot can happen in a week.

·         Debka.com says the 2nd Palestine prime minister has threatened to resign. Abu Ala is said to have made this threat to Mr. Arafat when he found the Treasury "empty" and without funds to meet the January 1 Palestine Authority payroll. It is said Mr. Arafat has taken the money.

 

0300 GMT December 29, 2003

·         Jang of Pakistan says a second suicide bomber has been identified; he was an Afghan with fake Pakistani ID papers. Meanwhile, there are indications that Al Qaeda is not the only suspect: scrutiny is being focused on Kashmir insurgent groups who may be angry with President Musharraf's recent offers to settle the Kashmir dispute with India.

·         In addition to the 5 USAF C-130 flights committed to the Iran earthquake rescue operation, the US is sending C-5s and C-141s to Iran from the US, these will carry, among other people and things, 200 personnel from two civil rescue teams and a hospital team.

·         Times of India reports that one anti-Indian rebel group in Bhutan has been so hard pressed by the Bhutan Army that it has appealed to China to permit its members to allow unhindered passage from Tibet to Myanmar, where it intends to rebase itself. It asks China for the "minimum hospitality" as its members have no food or cold weather clothing.

·         Orbat.com comment One of the greatest problems with Indian media is it seldom explains anything. So far the media has given the impression the rebels are being pushed south, because their Bhutan bases lie close to the India border. It now appears they are running to the north, which makes sense of sorts because crossing back to India will mean their arrest. Nonetheless, that they are moving north at this time of year means they are in great difficulties and the Bhutan Army campaign has been far more successful than we have been told. The rebels speak of massive artillery and air attacks. If this is correct, then the Indian Army and Air Force are taking part in the campaign. Of course, it really is too much to expect Indian journalists to discommode themselves by going and finding out what is happening.

·         News of the Weird Your editor feels guilty about posting this in News of the weird, because anyone the least familiar with South Asians will see nothing weird in what we are about to relate. [1] The head of the biggest group, now in Indian custody, jauntily speaks of a shift in strategy where the remnants of his group will base themselves in Myanmar in preference to Bangladesh. One would think that this leader would have other things to ponder at a time he is completely at the mercy of the Indian Army, who's soldiers he has killed and maimed for many years. Just to add to the irony, he is also telling the Indian Government and his cadres they should sit down and discuss a peace deal, and demands the Indians involve a neutral 3rd party state in the discussions.  It has not occurred to this gentleman he is on a one-way trip to a special court and the hangman, and that he is not in a position to make any suggestions. [2] The 3 rebel groups now in the process of being chased out of Bhutan have decided to punish the Bhutan government for its offensive: they have told their members and supporters to stop the smuggling between India and Bhutan these groups engage in to raise funds. We suppose the Bhutan Government will now be in tears that it attacked the rebels who have used Bhutanese soil for haven with impunity for many years.  [3] The Bhutan Government acted after six years of ultimatums to the rebels to leave Bhutan or else.

·         BBC says the British Government will start stationing armed sky marshals on British civil airline flights to the United States. The Australians are already using armed security personnel on flights between Singapore and Australia, and it is expected the Singapore government will also start guarding its flights to Australia. Meanwhile, BBC tells us before 9/11 the US had exactly 33 air marshals.

 

0300 GMT December 28, 2003

·         CENTCOM says F-16s from the 510th  Fighter Squadron used two JDAMs to destroy a house near Khalidiyah that has been used to launch 6 attacks on coalition forces. 1/34th Armor, attached to the 82nd AbnDiv, cleared out civilians and cordoned the area to avoid collateral casualties. [Orbat.com supposes a bulldozer would have been just as effective and cheaper, but the moral impact of the house vanishing from direct hits by two large bombs is more impressive than a 'dozer.] 1/16th Infantry, also attached to the division, conducted a cordon and search near Ramadi, capturing 8 suspected insurgents.

·         Meanwhile, CENTCOM says US aircraft have started airlifting 75 tons of relief supplies from local bases to Iran in the wake of the devastating earthquake. CNN says between 5-20,000 have been killed. These are the first US flights to Iran since the hostage crisis of 1980.

·         Agencies report the head of the IAEA is in Libya and says Tripoli's nuclear weapons program was in a "nascent" stage. Said that Libya's acceptance of an international inspections regime could lead to the lifting of all sanctions.

·         [Orbat.com readers may recall we had reported hearing in Washington, some 3 years ago, that relations with Libya would be normalized and huge new oil/gas discoveries would be announced. In any event, the American footprint in the Muslim world has just grown bigger. Syria and Iran now look they could go down without a fight, leaving only the DPRK. A month ago most everyone was questioning America's risky strategy in the Muslim world. Things have changed a bit since then.]

·         Press Trust of India reports that on Saturday the Bhutan army continued the 13th day of its offensive against 3 anti-India insurgent groups. Operation "All Clear" has been highly successful with militants either killed or surrendering in numbers to the Bhutanese and Indian authorities to save their lives. Among those captured is the leader of one insurgent group.

·         Jang of Pakistan has said arrests of suspects in the Pakistan President assassination case continue, the latest involve 5 suspects arriving in Karachi from Kandahar. Now said 3 bombers were involved. One has been identified as a 31 year old Pakistani religious extremist.

·         Saudi web newspaper Arabnews.com reports more than 4000 infiltrators from Yemen have been arrested in the recent drive to cross down on smuggling and militants movements from that country.

·         Agencies say 6 coalition soldiers and 7 Iraqi police killed in Karbala in series of 4 suicide car bombs attacks.

·         For a reasonably balanced article on happenings in Venezuela  regarding the Chavez recall petition, read Venezuelanalysis.com.

 

0200 GMT December 27, 2003

More Details Emerge On Bid to Kill Pakistan President

·         Jang of Pakistan says that one of the two suicide bombers who attack President Musharraf's convoy on Christmas Day has been identified. His face was found intact nearby and it matched an ID card found at the scene. The body of the second bomber is badly burned, but sufficient body parts were recovered that the Pakistan authorities are confident they can get an identification. [BBC says both bombers have been identified.]

·         A security officer told Jang that moments before the attempt, two Mercedes cars in the convoy changed position as the drivers suspected something was wrong - as nearly as we can tell the behavior of the two bomb vans likely tipped off the escorts.  One van, for example, jumped a road divider to get to the President's car. The security officer said the repositioning foiled the vans from hitting the President's car.

·         Pakistan officials refused to release any details of the first bomber's identity beyond saying he was born in 1978. The vehicles used have been traced.

·         The death toll has risen to 17 and may rise to 20. Four policemen and two soldiers are among the dead.

·         12 cars were destroyed, 30+ cars and several buildings including the two gas stations and two police stations were damaged.

·         Eyewitnesses say that one bomber had stopped at a gas station to get his cooking gas cylinder filled and asked attendants to check his van's oil. He then received two calls on his cell phone and took off without waiting for the oil check.

·         Pakistan security forces have begun raiding several towns and villages to round up suspects. Orbat.com speculates the suspects include those the security agencies have been watching but did not have sufficient evidence earlier to detain them.

·         President Musharraf was calm and composed when he spoke to the people on Pakistan TV; CBS-TV in the US  showed footage from PTV.

·         Orbat.com has been asked if we have extensively covered the assassination bid because of the editor's interest in South Asia. Readers will recall we did not pause overlong on the first bid, last week. Coming as this attempt does on the eve of a regional summit after both countries have made extraordinary efforts to reconcile, and coinciding with a heightened worldwide terror alert, it is your editor's feeling - without any concrete basis - that something is not quite right here. Moreover, the President had just made a major concession to religious parties by setting a date by which he would give up his uniform.

·         Washington Post reports that Saddam's capture has given US unprecedented access to names. Five families in Saddam's birthplace, Auja, seem to have been funding and coordinating the resistance. The US continues to arrest suspects based on Saddam's notebooks and is said to be crippling cell after cell not just in the north but also in Baghdad. Arrests are running in the hundreds. There is evidence that the insurgents are running out of money - not because the 5 families don't have enough of it, but because they have dispersed their holdings in several places and have been finding it increasingly difficult to get to their caches. A fascinating aspect of this business is that though the families kept Saddam informed, and helped provide the network of hiding places and vehicles to keep shifting him around, Saddam himself apparently had little to do with the resistance.

·         News of the Weird But Nonetheless Satisfying  We read the peculiar construction of Saddam's hiding place is now explained: it was a converted outdoor latrine and cesspool. Comments from us would be superfluous.

·         Agencies report insurgents attacked several places in Baghdad yesterday and early today; damage is not significant, but a total of 5 US soldiers has been killed in Iraq. [Some sources say this has been corrected to 4.] US 1st ArmdDiv has launched a counteroffensive inside the city including use of artillery and a gunship.

·         The US CENTCOM website continues to confuse rather than inform. It appears to us that US patrols in the US 3rd CavRegt and 82nd AbnDiv areas - west of Baghdad to Syrian border - have been sharply reduced. The implications are quite different from what continuing rosy releases from CENTCOM seek to convey. We'd appreciate if any reader who has an idea of what is actually going on in West Iraq can enlighten us.

 

0001 GMT December 26, 2003

Pakistan President Unhurt In 2nd Assassination Attempt

[Details below in red]

·         Haaretz of Israel says the top commander of Islamic Jihad in Gaza was killed by missiles in a helicopter strike. He is said to have been planninga "mega attack". Two militants in the car were also killed. A suicide bomber killed 4 Israelis and himself. Israeli security forces shot dead a bomb-laden man approaching a settlement. Israel has closed the West Bank and Gaza.

2200 GMT December 25, 2003

·         Jang of Pakistan, CNN, and other agencies report that the Pakistan President escaped after two vans [or cars] attempted to ram his motorcade. The President was returning home at about 0900 GMT when a vehicle attempted to get into the head of the convoy and another into the rear. Both vehicles exploded.

·         The Presidential car's windshield was "slightly damaged", but General Musharraf was unhurt.  Between 14-15 people are dead and 45 wounded. The attack took place 2-kilometers from the President's residence.

·         BBC says in the last week's attack, jamming devices prevented explosives planted around a bridge from triggering till after the convoy had passed. We may speculate that the same thing may have happened in the second attempt.

·         Dawn of Pakistan, the nation's largest English daily, on its website quotes - oddly enough - the western wire services AP, Reuters, AFP - to say the two cars were driven out of two gas stations about 200 meters from the bridge where the first attempt on the President's life took place. This would account for the destruction of the stations as well as explain the eyewitness account given to PTI.

·         Jang says the force of the explosions can be judged by the knocking out of power to the residential neighborhood. Two gas [petrol] stations were destroyed. A police car at the rear of the convoy took the brunt of the explosion at that end. Many of the dead were passers by.

·         Amin-ul-Zawahari, Bin Laden's second-in-command, has apparently been quoted by Arab TV and in circulating audiotapes that President Musharraf has to be killed.

·         Orbat.com comment If indeed Al-Qaeda is behind the attack, as was suspected for the first assassination attempt 11 days ago, then this is not the brightest move the organization has carried out. It is true that the Federal Government exercises only a loose control over the tribal areas bordering Pakistan, where Al-Qaeda has its hideouts. Nonetheless, the Baluch tribals, at least, learned the hard way in 1972-76 what happens if the Federal Government decides to crack down. We have no figures, but the Pakistan Army destroyed an insurgency by Baluch insurgents wanting to join with Iranian Baluchis for a separate country.

 

0330 GMT December 25, 2003

There appears to be no major story so far today

·         Agencies say Air France cancelled 5 flights to and from Los Angeles IAP because of specific threat information. Some sources say it is difficult to sort out the "chatter" but some plan of Al Qaeda's for sure was in the works. A 6th cancellation had nothing to do with the terror alert.

·         BBC says UN Security Council approves peacekeeping mission to Burundi even though one rebels group still rejects the force. Officials warn there may be a shortage of troops and equipment for the mission. 2500 African troops are currently serving there.

·         Globalsecurity.org quotes the Hartford Courant to say there is between 650,000 and 1 million tons of ammunition in Iraq, mostly loose. It will take years to clean up the stocks which keep showing up everywhere.

0230 GMT December 24, 2003

Pakistan Completes N-Command & Control Overhaul

·         Jang of Pakistan says that an intensive overhaul of Pakistan's nuclear command and control system has been completed after two years. Two 3-star generals have joint responsibility under the National Command Authority, headed by the President. Officials admit that the Pakistan Army has been involved in the program since 1974, but were told not to ask questions as large sums of unaudited funds were spent with accountability. Pakistan's focus was on developing nuclear weapons at all costs, and there was no formal authority with checks and balances in charge of the enterprise. All that has changed now, Jang says.

·         BBC says the Bhutan Army has resumed its offensive against anti-Indian insurgents based in the country, after a pause for regrouping.  A Bhutanese source acknowledges that hard fighting lies ahead as the rebels are pushed out of their bases camps into the deep jungle.

·         AFP reports that earlier today massive explosions and gunfire were heard in Baghdad, with an aircraft circling overhead. The US military allowed that the noise may be related to a CI operation but provided no details. Meanwhile, in a Mosul raid an aide of Iraq's most wanted man, LTGEN al-Douri, was captured along with three of his sons. The Iraq Civil Defense Corps participated. US sources say they are closing in on the general.

·         AP says ROK cabinet clears dispatch of 3,000 troops to Iraq to join 460 medics and engineers.

·         CNN says US and Pakistani officials confirm a China report that the leader of the East Turkistan Islamic Movement, one of China's Most Wanted on its first list of insurgents published recently, was killed in South Waziristan, Pakistan. The operation was mounted by Pakistani troops and apparently a coordinated intel US-Pakistan effort. The insurgent was suspected of several bombings and killings in Muslim areas of Sinkiang province, where the group was one of several separatist organizations. The US recently declared the group a terrorist organization.

 

0230 GMT December 23, 2003

·         AFP reports that Bhutan Army claims seizure of big cache of rebel weapons including over 500 assault rifles, LMGs, and satellite phones. Indians say 128 rebels killed, 8 Bhutanese soldiers also, 100n rebels are in Indian custody. Bhutan says it has cleared out all 30 insurgent camps; India says the number is 24 and that Bhutan still has some way to go. Palace denies son of the King wounded, and says King is leading in a figurative sense: since communications are so bad he has to be up at the front.

·         Jang of Pakistan says top Pakistan nuclear scientist AQ Khan has been detained for questioning after he was fingered by two Iranian diplomats as a source of nuclear weapons technology. Dr. Khan denies he has done anything wrong. President Musharraf orders a search for truth and says whatever Dr. Khan did with Iran is before the president took over the government and he was acting on his own. Sources say this may well be true, but Pakistan has continued to transfer technology to DPRK and possibly Libya during the President's watch. Two of  3 aides/colleagues of Dr. Khan are still being questioned.

·          Orbat.com comment: your editor did a two-year study on the Pakistan bomb program in the middle-1980s, and emerged with the definite impression that Dr. Khan was prepared to do anything that advanced Dr. Khan's agenda. He is a man of immense intelligence, cunning, and duplicity. He is quite capable of serving not just two masters at one time, but three. He is a dangerous person, and while President Musharraf would do best to hand him to the US, the President may have to end up fighting tooth and nail to prevent his extradition anywhere outside Pakistan.

·         Military.com quotes Chicago Tribune to say US special force get a 35% jump in their budget and will add 5,000 more troops to their 44,000 strength. Also reported that 92% of US SF troops lack language training. Till 9/11 the Pentagon had been reluctant to commit these very expensively trained and maintained troops, but now they are extensively deployed. The Afghan campaign was a model SF/airpower operation of the sort for which Mr. Rumsfeld wants to reorganize the US forces.

·         Orbat.com opinion Some in the Arab world seem determined to convince themselves that Saddam was not seized the way the US reports. It is inconceivable to them that he would not have fought to the end. If one looks at the diagrams of his hideout, it is clear a man can wedge himself into position feet first. He has no mobility once inside the hole and is no position to start a gunfight that can end in only one way. Normally the US troops would simply have dropped in a grenade before approaching the opening. Because they knew Saddam was in there thanks to the betrayal by one of his own, they would have taken every precaution not to kill him but also ensured he could not kill any of them. A gas or stun grenade would do the job nicely, and might account for his drugged appearance.

·         CNN says China is to buy $2-billion worth of Russian arms in a new contract.

·         Arabnews.com says MGEN Al-Taji, head of Saddam's security service, has been captured. Russia has offered to write off65% of $8-billion Iraq owes.

0230 GMT December 22, 2003

·         CNN reports a new CI operation has been launched by 3rd ACR and 82nd AbnDiv in the area close to the Syrian border and at other places. The 82nd has captured 100 suspects. 3rd ACR is targetting terrorist training camps.

·         We've been asked by a reader the rationale behind operation names; he specifically asked why every 4th MechDiv operation has "Ivy" in the name. The division's patch is 4 ivy stems, and its nickname is the Ivy Division. 3rd ACR is called the Brave Rifles, so its new operation is called Rifles Fury. 82nd AbnDiv is called the All American, as it was the first US division to be recruited without reference to geographical, its sign is an "AA", and so we hear reference to TF All American. 4th Div has an attached force called TF Iron Horse, so some times we hear references to that.

·         Agencies say that Pakistan supplied Iran with much of the design and some parts for its centrifuge program; the enriched uranium traces found come from Russian equipment. China has also been a major supplier.

·         BBC reports the Bhutan Army is pausing to regroup before continuing its offensive against anti-India insurgent groups; Indian military officials Bhutan has done a fine job entirely on its own but may find the going together as the insurgents hunker down in denser jungle. A 19-year old member of the Royal Family was wounded in the leg participating in an operation; he had left his studies at Oxford to help his country. Orbat.com asks if some US politicians can admit this young man was doing the right thing and they did not when they had their chance to serve their country.

·         After days of wrangling at the Afghan Loya Jirga, AFP reports that a consensus has emerged that President Karzai must be given strong powers to continue reconstruction of the country. Some delegates want a strong parliamentary system to counter the President's powers.

·         Sunday Express of UK essentially backs Debka.com story about Saddam capture, though essential details differ. Express says Saddam was captured and drugged by a Kurdish group and then the US 'captured' him in an elaborate charade. Orbat.com has no comment on this story.

 

0330 GMT December 21, 2003

Israel Defense Minister Says Attack Against Iran N-Facilities Under Consideration

·         In a remarkable move to pressure Iran, Haartez.com reports the Israeli defense minister says that plans to attack Iran's nuclear weapons facilities are under consideration, and could be carried out without casualties. He has said that the Iranian nuclear threat is the gravest Israel has faced. The director of the radio station on which the minister spoke said Iranians have called asked for Israel to help liberate their country the way the US has liberated Iraq and Afghanistan, but that the Minister, while sympathetic, was careful not to promise assistance.

·         Agencies say Libyan delegation meets IAEA chief immediately following Libyan announcement it will abandon its WMD programs. President Gaddaffi's son says details will be revealed Monday; denies the deal had anything to do with US invasion of Iraq, saying it has been under discussion since before the invasion.

·         Reuters says in 2nd incident this week, 4 Venezuela National Guard troops patrolling Colombia border killed in ambush; earlier, 3 were killed; in both case the dead soldiers' rifles were stolen. Reuters says its unclear what is going on. Though Venezuela troops get into incidents with Colombian naro-traffickers, right-wing paramilitaries, and left-wing insurgents, deaths are relatively rare.

·         Japan is to spend $6.5 billion to strengthen its anti-missile defenses with systems on its 4 Aegis destroyers and land-based Patriot 3s. For thoughtful analysis of what the deal and dispatch of Japan troops to Iraq means, read Asahi Shimbun.

·         US CENTCOM reports that the USS Philippine Sea [CG 53] captured two dhows in the Persian Gulf December 20. The capture was developed from intel gained after  USS Decatur [DDG 73], on patrol in the Persian Gulf on December 15 captured a dhow with about 1.7 tons of hashish. The dhows were detected by a RNZAF P-3 on December 18, and trailed by MR aircraft from the US, UK, and Australia. CG 53, operating as part of the Enterprise battlegroup, made the interception aided by an RAF Nimrod. One dhow was seized with about 70 kg of methamphetamines. The second dhow attempted to outrun the boarding party, and was filmed by a VP-47 P-3 while about 200 bags were thrown overboard. Two bags with a total of 85 pounds of what is believed to be pure heroin were recovered.

·         Though as of 0300 GMT we did not see any mention of the second seizure,  AP reports US officials said on December 19 they had captured the hashish dho and detained the 10 man crew, 3 of whom are believed to have Al-Qaeda connections. Though the US did not specify the reasons its sees a connection with the Bin Laden group, analysts says this would provide the first hard evidence of the long suspected Al Qaeda - drug smuggling nexus. The CENTCOM release said only that possible Al Qaeda connections are being investigated.

·         We contacted a knowledgeable source who said that if the two bags turn out to be pure heroin, then the dhow might have carried an estimated 2 short tons of the drug. He hedged his sales estimates with several caveats, including where the drugs were headed, the seller's connections and the speed which he wanted to conclude the deal.  The hashish would be worth between $3-4 million to the seller, and the heroin $50-$100 million. These prices are, of course, well below street value, which is a misleading index because between the bulk seller and the street are several layers of middlemen.  He said that while he is not informed on Al Qaeda, if at all the group was involved in the hashish load, it must be peripherally, perhaps Al Qaeda members mounting an independent operation. The money to be gained from hashish is much too small when the same weight of heroin would bring in many times more.

·         Jang of Pakistan quotes 1st Bde/4th MechDiv  spokesman as saying no bounty will be paid to the informant who led US troops to Saddam. He is a bad man who deserves to rot in jail, according to spokesman. The man was close to Saddam. There are 4-9 layers to the resistance movement

 

0300 GMT December 20, 2003

Libya Will Scrap WMD Program

·         In a critical effort to mend relations with the West, Haartez.com says  Libya has announced that after 9 months of negotiations with US/UK it will end its WMD program and agree to limit its missiles to 300-km range. Tripoli will also sign international treaties banning WMD. Libya has pledged that the disarmament process will be transparent. Orbat.com opinion: The Libyan move will bring Syria and Iran under much greater pressure to disarm than has been the case till now. It is a major victory for the US/UK

·         Military.com says US will send most of 1st Bde 82nd AbnDiv to Iraq in January for 4 months and detain 3rd Brigade there for two more months to smooth the transition of units. The 1st has just returned from Afghanistan and is, in effect, the sole high-alert rapid reaction reserve the US Army has available at this time. The shift will leave just a battalion group in reserve.

·         Times of India says the Royal Bhutan Army continued its offensive against anti-India rebel groups who have based themselves in the iompassable jungles of S Bhutan for the fifth day, and that the King and his son are personally leading the offensive. The RBA claims 19 of 30 insurgents camps have been overrun. Five top-level insurgents from an anti-Indian group seeking independence for Assam state have been killed; 7 others have been captured and handed over to India. The operation will go on for some time.

 

0400 GMT December 19, 2003

Indo-Pakistan Ceasefire Holding; More Reconciliation Moves Underway

·         Times of India says two battalion-level commanders, one from each country, met at Sialkot in Pakistan and reviewed the ceasefire along the disputed Kashmir and Siachin fronts. They expressed satisfaction that the ceasefire was holding. Meanwhile, Indian Airlines is to resume flights to Pakistan January 1, 2004.

·         Jang of Pakistan reports that President Musharraf of Pakistan is willing to drop Pakistan's long-standing demand for a plebiscite on Kashmir if India will open serious bilateral talks on the future of the disputed state.

·         The problem with the proposal is, in Orbat.com's view, that while India had in 1949 accepted a plebiscite as part of the UN brokered ceasefire, Pakistan was required to withdraw its troops from the state. Since it did not, in Indian eyes the plebiscite offer became irrelevant, and in Indian eyes President Musharraf's offer is meaningless. Nonetheless, that Pakistan is willing to budge on a long-held non-negotiable demand from its point of view is in itself a good sign. Both sides compete every week to up the peace ante. We are unclear who is ahead, but we suspect its the good General. Another of his ideas is a common currency for both nations. We welcome comments.

·         4th MechDiv continues Ivy Blizzard, with the arrest count up to 86. This includes a dozen cell leaders in Samarra. Meanwhile, reprisal killing is coming out into the open: a senior Shia official was murdered after several death threats from Saddam loyalists; a former regime official responsible for suppression of a rebellion was killed.

·         Haartez of Israel says PM Sharon announces he will not wait more than a few months for Palestine to react positively to permanent peace plans. He vowed to build no more settlements in Palestine, and said he will pull back exposed settlements. But, he says, after the wait time is up, he will take unilateral action to separate the two peoples.

·         Haartez adds that the great majority of Israelis favor separation, but Sharon's proposal has been attacked by the Palestinians, the settlers, and the Israeli left wing; the US has expressed concern, saying only a negotiated peace is viable.

·         BBC says there were clashes for the second time this week in Brazzaville, capital of the Congo [separate from DRC and often called Brazzaville Congo]. Rebel groups called the Ninjas fought with government troops, there is no estimate of casualties. Brazzaville, the BBC says, is believed the worst capital in the world to live in because of unrepaired infrastructure after several years of civil war.

·         Agencies say deadlock at Afghanistan Loya Jirga continues, with disagreements about President Karzai's powers.

0215 GMT December 18, 2003

·         Times of India says among multitudes of new Indo-Pakistan exchanges and CBMs, India offers hotline between the two Coast Guards as well as semi-annual meetings at sea.

·         CNN says US 4th MechDiv launches Ivy Blizzard and seals off Samarra, arrests 30 suspects in first day of operation.

·         Jang of Pakistan reports extremist right winger Georg Haider of Austria says the US capture of Saddam is "a scam" and that DNA testing is meaningless because US does not have comparison samples of Saddam's DNA. Austrian Foreign Minister Haider's statement; previously he has equated Bush with Saddam.  Orbat.com comment Hmmmm. we may be wrong, but were under the impression DNA taken from Saddam's sons could provide the match; also. If this is a Saddam double, he is doing a very brave job of standing up to US interrogation and a certain death sentence. He also did a good job of having documents that have led to the arrest of 3 former Iraqi generals active in the resistance, and have enabled the US to dismantle several terror cells in Baghdad. By the way, what happens if the real Saddam now stands up but the US says he is the double and they have the real one? If the real Saddam going to submit to having his identity proved? We have our doubts. We'd like proof that its the real Georg Haider making these statements.

·         Read BBC on new Israeli-US gun that shoots around corners. 15 countries said to have already ordered it including Russia.

·         BBC says Zimbabwe inflation in November  rose to 620% for year-on-year index.

·         United News of India says 6,000 Bhutan Army troops launch first ever offensive in modern times against 3 separate anti-India  rebels groups using Bhutan as sanctuary; reports say 32 Bhutanese KIA and 80 wounded; 90 rebels killed; Indian helicopters evacuate Bhutan Army wounded to Indian hospitals. Thimpu says it will not agree to anything other than a rebel surrender and departure from Bhutan. [Orbat.com: this offensive has been years in coming and is subsequent to a major expansion of Bhutan Army. India maintains a large training mission in Bhutan as well as forward elements of two mountain divisions that would reinforce flanks of Indian IV and XXXIII Corps in war against China.]

 

0230 GMT December 17, 2003

Shin Bet's Chief Says Security Services Have Not Given Israelis The Security They Deserve

·         Read Shin Bet security chief's comments on Israeli security made in a rare public appearance. Article is from Haartez.

·         Haaretz of Israel summarizes CIA report which says peace between Palestine and Israel is unlikely before 2020, and that Yassar Arafat's death is essential for then process to mature. Report says both sides could accept a "cold peace" in the absence of a final agreement.

·         Scratch one part of Debka's thesis that Saddam was kidnapped. He had a pistol with him; kidnappers would not have left him with a firearm. CNN says a person familiar with Saddam's hiding arrangements was captured in a Baghdad raid and was sent to 4th MechDiv HQ at Tikrit, where he presumably was persuaded to cooperate. He accompanied the troops on their mission and but for his detailed help such as pointing out the hidey hole, Saddam may have gotten away.

·         CNN also reports 75 men of military age captured at a single house in Samarra, including a mid-level Fedayeen leader. Jang says 88 arrested including the major Saddam insurgents financier. No women were present. We speculate this is a major blow to the insurgency in the north because after the usual persuasion, that large a number of prisoners is bound to give much valuable information.

·         Jang of Pakistan says after 3 soldiers were injured in a roadside bomb attack at Tikrit, "visibly angry" soldiers from 1/22nd Inf warned demonstrators they would not hesitate to use force to disperse them and that the soldiers would not allow any kissing of Saddam's picture. Orbat.com comment This generation of American GIs has extensive peacekeeping experience and has been remarkably restrained in the face of continued attacks and provocations. If 4th MechDiv decides to write off the hearts-and-mind campaign in Tikrit, the residents are going to see the other side of the same GIs: impartially merciless and giving no quarter. Many commentators have said that the gentle approach has only caused Iraqis, anti- and pro-Saddam alike, to disrespect the US soldiers.

·         Orbat.com comment Would it be ungallant of us to ask Saddam's daughters where they  got the money to hire the best lawyers to defend their father, as they announced in Jordan? After all, as President of Iraq, Saddam had a modest salary. If the money is in the slightest way tainted - and we assume sleuths from many countries will be watching closely, it will be taken away from them at the request of the incoming government of Iraq. Baghdad may well ask for their arrest and extradition to Iraq as material witnesses. We wonder if it would be ungallant to also ask if the hundreds of thousands of Saddam's victims had access to the best lawyers in the world at their "trials"? Oh dear, so sorry, ma'am: your father did say they were scum and thieves.  Presumably they didn't deserve anything.

 

1200 GMT December 16, 2003
[2nd Update]

Post Saddam Violence

·         CNN says TF Ironhorse [attached to 4th MechDiv] kills 11 insurgents [Debka says 16] who attempted a coordinated, two step ambush on its troops in Samarra; no US casualties. Two pro-Saddam demonstrators from crowd of 750  killed at Ramadi by 82nd AbnDiv when the paratroops were fired on [one injured]. Also at Ramadi, estimated 30 insurgents ambushed 82nd AbnDiv convoy; 1 insurgent killed.

·         BBC adds that two demonstrators killed at Ramadi; similar demonstration at Fallujah results in one US soldier wounded and one demonstrator killed and 2 injured in return fire.

·         AP says in Tikrit demonstrators should "Saddam is in our hearts and in our blood"; Iraqi police and US troops shout back "Saddam is in our jail".

·         Debka.com says 1 US soldier killed in Baghdad; 3 injured in Tikrit.

·         Read Haaretz of Israel's account of a cancelled mission to kill Saddam in 1992; new information provided in a report declassified report yesterday, following Saddam's capture. This account will provide good ideas for thriller writers. It comes with Israeli attack team prepared for suicide rather than capture, hostile extraction from Iraq, missiles specially customized to home in on Saddam, and a training error when a live missile instead of a dummy was inadvertently launched at Israelis playing Saddam's party, killing 5. Oh yes, there is also the usual Israeli press misdirection.

 

0030 GMT December 16, 2003

More On Saddam's Capture

·         NBC says the US has moved swiftly to exploit intelligence from documents seized from Saddam and that several leaders in Baghdad have been arrested. Previously, agencies said two had been captured.

·         Agencies report President Bush says Saddam will be put on trial in the manner the Iraqis want. In preference to a trial inside Iraq, some want him tried before an international court. Orbat.com is not quite clear what right an international court has if Iraq wants to try him.

·         Debka.com fields a convincing analysis that Saddam had been captured some weeks before by the two men who were seen running away from the farmhouse and later captured; that they were keeping him prisoner and had beat him, and that his hidey-hole could be opened only from the outside. Debka's theory would explain the miserable and squalid conditions in which he was found, as also the lack of any communications equipment. It remains to be answered why Saddam's captors, if that is what they were, bothered to hold him. Seems easier, to us, to hand him over and claim the $25-million reward.

·         Orbat.com Opinion   We hope that enough news happens in the world that we can forget this story. Saddam is in custody, he is finished, and we, at least, would like to move. There are now more important things to focus on.

·         Jang of Pakistan says Islamabad has failed to convince the EU to equate the Israeli fence with the fence India is erecting in Kashmir. Mr. Solana, the EU secretary general, is quoted as saying the fence is on India's side of a mutually demarcated Line of Control between the two countries, and is an instrument of infiltration control. Orbat.com points out that for many years one argument made by the Indians themselves against fencing was that India did not want the LofC to look like an international border and thus vitiate India's claim to all of Kashmir. We are also unclear why the Pakistan Foreign Office pushed comparisons between the Israeli and Indian fences, and asked for condemnation of the Indian fence on that basis. Even a tyro can see there is a difference, and it is not like the Pakistan FO to make such a senseless mistake.

·         Jang also reports the Government of India has condemned the attempt on the like of Pakistan President Musharraf.

·         In an unattributed report Jang says that France and Russia have hinted they might write off part of the $40 billion debt Iraq owes to the Paris Club of 19 industrialized nations. This would ease relationships with the US and win much goodwill in Iraq.  Iraq owes another $80-billion to Arab nations - Kuwait's refusal to write off the $40-billion Saddam borrowed for the war against Iran was a prime reason for Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990. Yet another $100-billion is owed as reparations. Orbat.com comment Iraq would have to pump somewhere around 7-billion barrels of oil, excluding its costs and excluding interest, to pay that debt at $30/bbl. Assuming it needs to sell 3-million/bbl a day to meet its budgetary needs and minimum reconstruction, if it doubled its sales, it would still require perhaps 10-12 years to pay the debt. The difficulty is that that extra 3-million/bbl/day would crash oil prices, and then it would have to pump more, which would bring down the price even more. Something has to give, and Kuwait is going to have to be reasonable about this since more money is owed to Kuwait than to any other country.

·         Read Haartez of Israel's astute analysis of what Saddam's capture means to the Arab world, and the role Iran may have played in his capture.

1230 GMT December 15, 2003

·         CBS confirms that Saddam is uncooperative, and has been taken to Qatar.

·         CNN says US captured many records that give the names of resistance leaders. Presumably this is what led to rapid arrest of a resistance leader in Baghdad, and perhaps what CBS meant when it said Saddam had provided information leading to the arrest. Nevertheless, officials are confident that with Saddam's arrest a major funding source for insurgents has been shut down.

·         CNN adds that intelligence indicated Saddam could be at one of two locations in Ad Dwar, 15-km from Tikrit. When the search came up empty, the troops set up a cordon and resumed their search. They found a simple hut with two rooms, and from there found Saddam's tunnel. it had a rudimentary ventilation system and was infested with rats and mice.

·         AP says 8 people were killed and 80 wounded in Kirkuk due to celebratory shooting of firearms.

·         With the typical American tendency to quip, the troops who captured Saddam said: "Regards from President Bush". We don't want to denigrate the excellent work of 4th MechDiv, but in this case they could have been better prepared with something more memorable. Perhaps they could have consulted the British beforehand.

0230 GMT December 15, 2003

Saddam Captured

·         More details have emerged on Saddam's capture. ABC TV says the turning point came when several US helicopters were shot down. The US, and particularly 4th MechDiv, decided this situation could not continue, and launched an intense series of raids. When locals saw the US was serious about eliminating insurgents, they increasing started turning up with information, to the point 90% of the information turned out to be accurate.

·         1st Bde of the 4th MechDiv and TF 121 [which is a SF unit] participated in the capture.

·         CNN quotes US officers as saying no one person led to the capture. Rather, it was a series of interrogations of family and guards close to him. A mosaic of  information from 10 persons captured in recent raids provided the specific target. Since the detainees and prisoners were hostile, none have claim to the $25 million reward and it will not be paid out.

·         CNN says that while the top US commander says Saddam was cooperative and talkative, 4 members of the ruling council who went to see report he was completely unrepentant. He mocked the Iraqi people and characterized the hundreds of thousand he executed as "thieves". He will be tried publicly by an Iraqi court, presumably the World Court will provide assistance.

·         Jang of Pakistan says President Musharraf escaped an assassination attempt when what is thought to be a remote-controlled bomb destroyed a big section of a bridge in  Rawalpindi his convoy had traversed just two minutes earlier. There are no claims of responsibility.

·         Said that at least 26 people in Kirkuk alone were injured by celebratory volleys fell back to the ground. Much rejoicing all over Iraq. Muslim nations express satisfaction with capture. Allies including Germany congratulate Mr. Bush. 200 people in Baghdad hold a pro-Saddam rally.

·         With their leader gone, there is speculation that the remaining two important Wanted, including General Douri and Saddam's intel chief, may seek to surrender.

·         Orbat.com Opinion Saddam's capture is a big blow to the insurgents. Nonetheless, they will now have to fight twice as hard because they must be feeling the hangman's noose around their neck. Its best the US work out an amnesty, however distasteful the prospect, or else much more blood will be shed. Then there is the separate problem of Al-Qaida. This group will not in the least be downcast. Now the deaths of their suicide bombers will be even more glorious because their "sacrifice"  will be even more meaningless. 

·         Just Another Day In Kashmir Jang of Pakistan says 13 people were killed in Indian Kashmir yesterday. The story is confused, but it seems the dead included one civilian caught in crossfire, one civilian and one policeman murdered in their homes by militants, and up to ten militants killed by Indian security forces

 

1415 GMT December 14, 2003
[2nd Saddam Update]

 Saddam Captured

·         Jang of Pakistan has several video frames

of the capture, including one of Saddam undergoing what appears to be a mouth swab for DNA analysis.

·         [1330 GMT December 14, 2003] Agencies report Saddam was captured by US and Kurd Iraqi forces Saturday night, with the announcements made early today. Us has released live video of Saddam during a medical exam.

·         PM Tony Blair of UK announced the captured, as did Mr. Paul Bremer, the US administrator for Iraq.

·         CNN says according to LTG Ricardo Sanchez, commander US forces Iraq, no shots were fired and no one was injured. The strike was conducted on specific information. Saddam was trapped in the cellar of a house, and dug a hole to hide himself. US troops had to use shovels to get himself out.

·         Debka.com says 600 troops of US 4th MechDiv and coalition SF aided by Kurd PUK intelligence, participated in Operation Red Dawn. The spider hole Saddam was in was 6-8 feet deep and camouflaged with dirt and bricks. Debka says Saddam is talkative and cooperative, but looked tired and rundown. The repeated emphasis on "coalition" forces suggest that UK and Australian Special Air Service troops were involved.

 

0001 GMT December 14, 2003

Ivory Coast Disarmament Begins

·         Despite the instability in the capital of Ivory Coast, caused mainly by pro-government militias demand French and West African troops stand aside and let them attack the rebels, BBC says the process of disarming both insurgent groups and government militias has begun.

·         CNN says US commander of Iraq forces looking into pay issue that led many Iraqi soldiers to quit. Apparently the men had families and were anxious about being able to support them. Recruits are paid from $60 and up, reaching $180 for a colonel.

·         Several media sources say that locals at a village in which 6 children and two adults were killed when US troops attacked a compound filled with ammunition, the US troops did everything possible to give the people inside to leave. US forces attacked several hours later, and have said they did not know there were children inside the compound.

·         Debka.com says that Israeli PM Sharon has no intention of evacuating settlements, despite announced plans, except under aegis of larger Israeli-Palestine deal. Says the PM has obtained new allies to counter the threat of a walkout by right wing MPs inside and supporting the government,  over withdrawal issue.

·         Just Another Day In Kashmir Jang of Pakistan says Indian security forces killed ten militants in Indian Kashmir and militants killed two civilians. Of interest is the news that some months after the Indian Army announced the militants were acquiring a crude chemwar capability, in one incident a pen pistol and 25 cartridges were found. When a policeman tried to extract the cartridge in the pen pistol, he was made unconscious by fumes. The cartridges appear to be coated with a lethal neurotoxin.]

 

0500 GMT December 13, 2003

India-Iran Resume Gas Pipeline Project

·         Jang of Pakistan says that India has reopened talks with Iran on a $3-billion pipeline between the two countries, after Pakistan guaranteed pipeline security. India had earlier refused to proceed because of fears of becoming dependent on Pakistan for a major fraction of NW India's energy. Money is to be contributed in the ratio of 60-20-20 for Iran-India-Pakistan. This deal is important because it economically binds India and Pakistan closer and raises the stakes for any leader on a confrontationist path. We welcome information from readers who know more about the economics and politics of the deal.

·         Meanwhile, media reports that the UN administrator in Afghanistan has threatened a pull out unless more foreign troops are committed to protecting UN personnel.

·         CNN says that 4th MechDiv battalion commander LTC Allen West, who watched the beating of a detained Iraqi policeman POW and then fired his pistol near the man's head to get information on a plot to kill West. Instead, he will be fined $5,000 and permitted to retire with full pension benefits. LTC West has noted that after the information was extracted from the POW August 20, attacks against his area ceased till October 4, 2003, when he was relieved of his command. Orbat.com is still not satisfied that LTC West has been fairly treated.

·         AFP says tIraqi police have broken up an oil smuggling ring using a secret port in the Basra area. Caught were 30 road tankers with 1-million liters of diesel oil.

·         BBC says President Bush expects Halliburton, a global services company once headed by Vice President Cheney, to return $60-million it overcharged the US government for supplying fuel to Iraq, as also $60-million overcharges on a catering contract. While there is no allegation that the company benefited from the overcharges - they are improperly audited payments to subcontractors - the situation looks bad for the Administration because of the Vice President's close association with the company.

·         BBC reports that attackers apparently from a pro-Ivory Coast government militia attacked the TV station. 18 militiamen and 1 policeman was killed in the fighting. Meanwhile, the crisis between the government and the northern rebels seems to be easing.

·         Arabicnews.com reports that Kuwait has agreed to step up benzene production by 1-million liters per day for export to Iraq; Kuwait is already providing 2-million liters a day to US forces and Iraq government. Benzene is a chemical widely used in several industrial processes, can someone enlighten as to why the US military needs it? Unless the US is buying the chemical for distribution to Iraqi industries.

·         Washington Post says a French commission has submitted to the government proposals to ban the wearing of headscarves by Muslim students in school - but also to remove large symbols of other religions.  In France, a heavily Catholic country, this means large crucifixes. Also recommended is the addition of Ramadan and Yom Kippur to the list of official holidays; the days will apparently not apply to everyone, but Muslim and Jewish workers will be permitted to ask for the day off with pay. Nonetheless, the commission most emphatically says that multiculturalism  cannot be permitted to an extent where France becomes divided against itself.

 

0230 GMT December 12, 2003

45% of New Iraq Army Resigns

·         Media says 45% of the New Iraq Army has resigned, just days before the 1st Bn was to join the US 4th MechDiv at Tikrit. The men said they were paid only as much as the police,  did not get to go home after the day's duty, and took greater risks. This both less dramatic and more dramatic at second look. Less dramatic:  the NIA had just 700 soldiers. More dramatic: the NIA had just 700 soldiers, and that's almost 9 months after the US invaded Iraq. Its at times like this Orbat.com is forced to wonder: are today's Americans in any manner at all related to the Americans who won World War II and reached the moon in 6 years from the go signal? Older readers may recall the signal was given by President Kennedy at a time when the US couldn't even get an ICBM to function right. 

·         Reader Gordon A. McKinlay forwards an item from the UK Telegraph, saying the professionals in the NIA are upset over the resignations because they feel the men leaving have no professional military ethic, came in only for the money, disobeyed orders, and in general failed to adapt to military culture. Interestingly, the Telegraph tells about a professional army family of 4 brothers, ranking from brigadier to captain. After shunning the brothers, US authorities have invited the 3 younger ones to join the NIA. The eldest is a brigadier and also 55 years of age, both of which factors may have something to do with the situation.

·         Orbat.com comment The bureaucrats who are creating mess after mess in Iraq are making a mockery of the sacrifices, efficiency, and bravery of the US armed forces. These bureaucrats should be paraded before their fellows with full ceremony; their gold pens should be removed from their jacket pockets, and broken dramatically before the offenders are marched ignominiously  off to prison for their lack of common sense. Ft. Leavenworth will do nicely, and, we are told, has ample room right now. This remedy may sound silly, but it is no more silly than these midget minds. They are so determined America should fail in Iraq that we wonder who they are really working for. We keep being told there are no comparisons between this war and Vietnam. For anyone aged 18 and up, however, its deja vu all over again because failure follows failure in Iraq as it did in Vietnam. Orbat.com supposes we should be comforted that in Iraq, unlike in Vietnam, the battalion commanders and up are determined that men be looked after and not sacrificed ne

 

1100 GMT December 11, 2003

US Raids Capture Insurgents Who Killed 7 Spanish Officers

·         In a large-scale 50 location sweep by the 82nd and 101st Divisions, scores of insurgents and suspects were captured. 82nd AbnDiv detained the cell leader and several others involved in the attack which killed 7 Spanish intel officers. After that incident locals have been coming forward in greater numbers to provide information.

·         CNN says the US has issued guidelines for contractors in Iraq's rebuilding that exclude those countries opposed to the war from bidding on contracts funded by US taxpayer money. The announcement was greeted by anger from the excluded countries, including France, Germany, and Russia. Nevertheless, the rules permit the US contractor to hire subcontractors from almost any nation.

·         BBC gives details of initial thinking by UK MOD on reorganization of armed forces. There is to be a shift away from conventional warfighting to better organize and equip for the war on terror. There are statements and hints that indicate tanks, older RN warships, and aircraft might be cut, but there will be no reduction in manpower. The UK armed forces have had no trouble in recruiting the 25,000 annual personnel needed in the last two years. 

·         BBC reports  a UK security firm has offered to kidnap ex-President Charles Taylor of Liberia from Nigeria and split the $2 million US bounty with investors. The firm believes the capture can be effected without fuss or casualties, and hints it already has people inside Nigeria.

1100 GMT December 10, 2003

ROC Rejects US Pressure On Referendum Issue

·         CNN says that Taiwan's president has refused to back down on a planned referendum on Chinese missiles targeted against Taiwan, despite publicly stated requests from the US not to increase tension with PRC. Taiwan insists the referendum is defensive in intent: it seeks only to establish if the Taiwanese people feel threatened by China's big missile buildup; if the referendum says "yes", Taiwan will ask Beijing to withdraw the missiles. The US, however, feels that the measure will be seen as a move toward independence.

·         Correction from Alexander Brown writing from Ireland on Operation Avalanche:  With regards to 'Operation Avalanche': four infantry battalions comprising 2000 American troops are taking
part (backed up by Afghan National Army and militia units), the 11,500 number  being total American troop strength in country. 

·         BBC reports that US troops inadvertently killed 6 children and two adults while targeting an insurgent leader and ammo store in E Patkia province last week. The US spokesman appeared indirectly to blame the persons involved by saying they chose to be present in the ammo store. US says it will not be deterred by civilian casualties in Afghanistan but will do its best to avoid them. Nine persons were arrested in the operation. Concerning the 9 children killed earlier, US has expressed its sorrow and has given compensation to the parents and the village.

·         BBC says 9 killed in Monrovia, Liberia, when pro-Taylor militia rioted and looted when they learned they would not immediately be paid for handing in their arms. They have to go through a training program before the money is paid. Nigerian peacekeepers were sent to quell the disturbance, which in any case took place after the 2200 curfew.

·         AFP says a car suicide bomb attack against a 101st AADiv base in W Iraq injured 58 US soldiers. The car refused to stop at a checkpoint and was fired on. The 1000-lbs explosives detonated, barrier security measures appear to have absorbed most of the blast. A US Kiowa Scout helicopter was forced down near Fallujah due to an RPG attack, the crew walked away from the crash. Meanwhile, Iraq had decided to expel the group of 5000 Iranian insurgents present within Iraq, deeming them a terrorist organization.
 

 

0230 GMT December 9, 2003

"Avalanche" Starts,  Biggest Afghan War Allied Ground Op

·         CNN says Operation Avalanche has begun on the heels of Mountain Resolve, though CNN says up to 11,500 US troops will be involved, we believe that CNN meant Allied troops. Operation focuses on E and S Afghanistan, where Taliban/Al Qaeda has made the most attacks recently, and aims to hit all suspected areas simultaneously before insurgents go into winter hibernation.

·         Associated Press says Secretary Rumsfeld is debating if more than the planned 220,000 Iraqi security forces [present total 140,000] are needed before handover of power, he said 4th MechDiv commander says he can train more if extra equipment is made available. Rumsfeld also says current system of rating army division readiness may be outdated considering the nation is at war. Orbat.com comment We think Mr Rumsfeld is correct about both issues, but US still needs an absolute minimum of 2 more divisions, and US still needs to recall complete Iraq Army battalions barring a few officerd. The nation is at war, but the burden is falling on less than 1% of the population, and it's unacceptable to ask the military to do even more.

·         Debka.com says Robert Blackwill, most recently US ambassador to India and now deputy secretary for national security, actually outranks Mr. Paul Bremer and is the man responsible for strategic thinking. Debka observes without comment he is the 5th person in that job. His most immediate concern is not US casualties, but the "staggeringly" large number of Iraqi casualties at hands of insurgents and criminals. Iraqis are coming to believe US cannot protect them and are joining the insurgents in large numbers [Orbat.com comment: we feel 'large' is Debka making its usual dramatic statements, though the problem is real. Blackwill wants US soldiers to assume massive policing role; says top US commander has told Mr. Bremer he will not accept any orders except through the military chain of command. If this is true, we have to ask why the experienced Mr. Bremer even thought to give General Sanchez any orders.

·         BBC says first 600 DRC rebels join DRC army, will be trained by Belgians before deploying to Bunia.

·         President Putin assured of 3rd term in control of Duma as his favored party crushes rivals: 37% of vote goes to United Russia; it is now feasible for Putin's supporters to amend constitution allowing him 3rd term

0200 GMT December 8, 2003

President Putin's Party Leads In Duma Elections

·         United Russia, President Putin's party [he is not, however, a member] is leading the second biggest winner by more than 2-1, with 37% of the vote compared to Zhirinovsky's Liberal Democrats with 16%, and the Communists trailing at 12%. The LD almost always follows the Kremlin line, says CNN. President Putin is expected to consolidate his position with the new election. Pravda has not updated its page at the time of our update.

·         BBC says Zimbabwe has left the Commonwealth after the organization  of former British colonies decided to stand firm on Zimbabwe's suspension after President Mugabe rigged elections last year. Officials are making racism charges. Orbat.com feels this reflects the growing separation from reality that Mr. Mugabe and company are showing, as more than 90% of the Commonwealth countries are non-white.

·          Haaretz of Israel says that the Cairo talks between various Palestine groups and the official government for a ceasefire with Israel have failed. Orbat.com has not been covering the talks because nothing positive seems to come out of all the countless discussions and meetings in this part of the world.

·         VOA reports the senior US commander in Iraq, LTG R. Sanchez, says that attacks on US forces have fallen to half, about 20 a day versus 40 in November. Some are questioning the tough US tactics and are worrying that Iraqis are being alienated. Orbat.com feels that if the Iraqis don't want the US to get tough, they have the option of turning in the insurgents, which in any case seems to happening increasingly

·         While many media sources says Iran will sign tougher inspection measures with the IAEA, our search of IRNA of Iran's headlines for December 6, 7, 8, show no indication of this. IRNA is the official news agency. The one thing of interest we noticed is that Iran has offered to help train the Afghan Army.

·         Armed Forces Journal International says the US has invented a controversial new 5.56mm round that pierces armor and concrete, but shatters when hitting living flesh. It offers a 1-shot, 1-kill possibility. Yet US forces are not allowed to use it. A private US security guard fired one shot at an Iraqi who was part of a group that ambushed his SUV. He says he hit the Iraqi in the buttocks at a range of between 100 -110 yards, a wound that is not normally fatal. The round appeared to instantly kill the assailant and  destroyed everything in the lower left part of his abdomen. Pravda has this matter under debate in a forum. The discussion is highly technical; unless you are a specialist in bullet impacts, be prepared to spend a couple of hours at the forum.

1700 GMT December 7, 2003

[2nd Update]

·         Jang of Pakistan says a Saddam loyalist tribal chief and a dissident Baath official both confirm that Saddam is leading the resistance from somewhere in West Iraq and is in excellent health. He was at Ramadi at the end of Ramadan, the most important Muslim religious festival.

·         Jang of Pakistan says that the Royal Navy has admitted its warships carried nuclear weapons during the Falklands War 1982 and that the Argentina President has demanded an apology. [Orbat.com note: we welcome comments. Our opinion is that this was either a simple contingency provision, or it was not convenient for some ships to offload nuclear weapons before proceeding to the S Atlantic.  In 1982 the Cold War was very much in force, and the RN, with a limited number of warships, had to dispatch ships and submarines temporarily withdrawn from anti-Warsaw Pact operations. Keeping their normal weapons would permit the warships to switch to a Warsaw Pact contingency without returning to UK ports. Since the RN had no intention, as far as we know, to use nuclear weapons in the Falklands, no apology is needed.]

 

0400 GMT December 7, 2003

Oddly, there seems to be no news worth reporting this morning. We will  update at 1400 if the news warrants.

·         News of the Weird The UK Sunday Telegraph  identifies an Iraqi colonel as the source of the "45 minutes" WMD claim made by Mr. Tony Blair. He has been spying for a London-based Iraq exile group for years, and for British intelligence since early 2002.  He says many units, including his air defense unit, were issued WMD toward the end of 2002, and that they could have been launched in 30 minutes. The odd thing is he says the WMD were contained in RPGs, and for the life of us, we cannot figure out how an RPG round is supposed to inflict mass destruction. we'd love to hear from our readers.

·         Washington Post reports that US Army is downgrading the readiness status of 4 returning Iraq divisions, so that 40% of the Army's divisions are not ready for war. With fresh deployments taking the place of the 4 returning divisions [82nd, 101st, 1st Armored, 4th Mechanized] only two divisions are left for world wide contingencies. Orbat.com fondly recalls the days when the US considered a two-corps, 8 division force as the basis of its strategic reserve, and was ready to replace the reserve with 8 high readiness Guard divisions, allowing the reserve to be reconstituted if its regular units were deployed. Some analysts say that in case of emergency the 4 divisions could quickly return to C1 status, but Army sources say there is a massive maintenance backlog that has to be performed on heavy equipment and vehicles, and that there are no replacements in the pipeline.

 

0500 GMT December 6, 2003

Russia's FSB Blames Rail Bombing On Chechens

·         Pravda reports  that the FSB says the railway bombing on December 5 was the work of Chechen insurgents. 41 are dead, over 200 were injured, of whom 20 are in critical condition. The bombing team consisted of 3 women, one of whom was the leader, and one man. The women escaped; the man left the bomb under his seat but was killed as he made his getaway attempt too late. Other persons aided the 4-person team but were not on the train.

·         Pravda also says that Russia's population will fall 25% by 2053. The death rate is 2% as opposed to a birth rate of 1.5%. Currently, immigration of Russians and others from republics of the former Soviet Union is keeping the decline from becoming even more precipitous, but the inflow is expected to start tapering off.

·         John Lancaster of the Washington Post  says that the ruling nationalist BJP party's victory in state elections is expected to strengthen Prime Minister AB Vajpayee push for resolving Indo-Pakistan issues. The hardliners in the prime minister's party have forced him to back off on improving relations at a faster rate. He will now be able to accelerate the pace of normalization, a matter to which he has committed his personal prestige and which he hopes to leave as his legacy.

·         Jang of Pakistan says the Indian High Commissioner [ambassador] to Pakistan has said India is prepared to discuss troop reductions in Kashmir if a serious offer is made. Orbat.com note: The High Commissioner's statement appears contrary to the Government's position on record. GOI has said all of Jammu and Kashmir is an integral part of India and no discussions can take place on withdrawals from Indian territory.

·         BBC says the Commonwealth has decided to continue excluding Pakistan and Zimbabwe from the 54-member body. Pakistan will not be readmitted until President Musharraf steps down and a genuine democracy restored; Zimbabwe is subject to the same conditions regarding President Mugabe.

·         Israel's Jaffee Center says that Israeli intel inputs into the US/UK threat assessment for Iraq were exaggerated. This leads one to ask if Israel manipulated the US/UK; nonetheless, Orbat.com believes that the WMD issue was merely an excuse for invasion; some reason or the other palatable to the American public would have been found.

·         San Diego Union Tribune says despite an expansion of US forces overseas, all 4 service chiefs oppose a manpower expansion; the US Navy is, indeed, cutting 1700 sailors from the authorized total of 375,500. The reason for the opposition is the chiefs believe induction of more manpower will hit weapons acquisition programs. The Navy is already spending 55% of its budget on salaries and benifits.

 

0300 GMT December 5, 2003

India Says Border Fencing Is Reducing Kashmir Infiltration

·         Jang of Pakistan quotes an Indian Army officer in charge of border fencing along the 460-km Line of Control in Kashmir [most of the Jammu border is an international border and not in dispute] says that though the fence is only partially complete, he has no reports of infiltrators getting through the fence and it has cut infiltration. The 9-foot high fence has an anti-personnel mine belt as well as what are, for South Asia at least, sophisticated sensors. The officer says that thanks to the ceasefire, India can now pursue fencing at a greater speed. Earlier, Pakistani gunners would keep up a constant fire on Indian working parties, making fencing slow and hazardous.

·         CNN says Interpol has issued a Red Notice for the arrest of former Liberian president Charles Taylor, who is now in Nigeria. CNN explains that how a country treats the Notice depends on its domestic laws. Some arrest the accused pending deportation hearings; others treat the Notice only a request for further information and investigation.

·         AP reports that two Swiss banks have established that both Bin Laden and his deputy Al-Zawarhri had accounts with them, but this was before they became known as terrorists. Bin Laden had an indirect account in that his father shifted money out of Saudi Arabia after Iraq invaded Kuwait, and all his 55 children were named as beneficiaries. There was no activity in the account after 1991 and the bank closed it after six years as per their rules. Al-Zawarhri closed his account in 1993, it had $33,000 in it at the time. [Orbat.com comment: this report induces a big yawn. Clearly, the Swiss banks are on their best behavior after the Jewish accounts fiasco and want to be seen as holier than the Pope.]

·         Reuters says that OPEC will keep production steady through the winter but will seek to raise prices above $30 in the spring, partly to offset the depreciating dollar. [Orbat.com comment: we hear with greater frequency the opinion that OPEC will be finished in 10 years, as Russian, Iraqi, and Central Asian fields increase production. Frankly, though we know the US attacked Iraq for many reasons, we feel the US effort to diversify away from OPEC is more reasonable an explanation for Gulf II. The WMD issue - and we are quite prepared to accept Iraq has them but they have not been found - was quite lame. For one thing there is North Korea, which actively exports missile technology and mutters darkly about selling bombs. We do not see Mr. Bush as doing much about the real threat.]

·         Please click for latest on Iraq Oil Production .

·         BBC says IMF has begun procedures for Zimbabwe's "compulsory withdrawal" from the organization. The country is $273-million in arrears and the IMF sees no sign of any Zimbabwe plan to make needed economic corrections. The economy has shrunk 40% in 4 years, inflation reached a 526% annual rate in October 2003, 2/3rd of the population is hungry, and the HIV infection rate is among the highest in the world.

·         BBC says US will double military aid to Morocco, and increase economic aid by 4X over the "coming years". The increases are a reward for the country's staunch support in the war on terror.

 

0300 GMT December 4, 2003

Uganda's President Purges Senior Officer Corps

·         BBC reports that the Ugandan president has sent 28 senior officers on forced leave, including the army chief of staff and 3 of 5 division commanders. Corruption is one reason, but apparently inability to make progress in the 17-year guerilla war is also a factor. Some observers see some of the dismissals as linked to the officers'  support of the head of the army sacked last year.

·         Pro government militia continue attempting to attack the French presence in Abidjan, this time targeting the main French military base in the city. For a concise summary of the background, please visit BBC.

·         Washington Post reports the US will raise a new Iraqi battalion under the Civil Defense Corps to root out insurgents and their supporters. The battalion will be recruited from 5 militias, thereby meeting the demand of many militia leaders that their fighters be regularized and permitted to join the ant-Saddam battle. The US says every volunteer will have to come as an Iraqi and not as a militia loyalist, and that it will ensure the men are mixed up to avoid formation of factions. Some Iraqi leaders are dismayed, saying the need is to disarmy all militia, not to regularize them. Meantime it appears that if this experiment succeeds, the US will regularize other militias.

·         Read Debka.com's take on the Stryker. The article says nothing new for those familiar with this ICV/RFV, but it is a good summary for those wanting to learn about Stryker.

·         UK media reports arrest of 24-year national for conspiring with Richard Reid, the Shoebomber; for having in his possession an unauthorized explosive; and for planning to do harm with an explosive device. We mention as a point of interest that the act he was charged under  dates from 1883 as amended by a 2000 act.

 

0230 GMT December 3,  2003

US Ready To Interdict WMD At Sea

·         CNN says that in a speech cleared by the US Secretary of State, a State official issued a tough warning that the US was ready, in cooperation with allies, to interdict WMD shipments at sea. He also said that while so far the US had cooperated with the wishes of its permanent colleagues in not referring the Iranian nuclear weapons program to the UN Security Council, if the IAEA found any more violations, the matter will have to be dealt with by the Security Council. [Very strong sanctions can be declared and enforced once the Security Coucil finds a state in violation of the NPT]. He also said the US was not convinced the Iranians were being truthful with the IAEA, and Teheran appears to be offering commercial inducements to other permanent members to avoid being sanctioned.

 

 

0200 GMT December 1,  2003

US 4th MechDiv Kills 46 Insurgents in 2 Samarra Counter-Ambushes

·         Insurgents simultaneously attacked 2 US supply convoys around Samarra; 4th MechDiv troops escorting the convoys, including 1/66th Armor, counterattacked killing 46 insurgents and wounding 18 who were presumably captured, at the cost of 5 wounded. 1/66th Armor's tanks simply flattened roadblocks aimed to impede one convoy and then used their tank guns to blast 3 buildings being used by the ambushers. Some of the Iraqis were wearing black Saddam Fidayeen uniforms.

·         Orbat.com Comment Dear Iraq Insurgents: may we offer you unsolicited advice? Never, ever try and take on US troops with the kind of mass attack you so idiotically attempted on Sunday November 30. The US Army, we all know, is much less proficient at CI warfare than the Indian or even the British; nonetheless, anytime you try something bigger than a sneak hit-and-run, you are going to get clobbered because you are playing straight into its hands. We wager 4th MechDiv is disappointed because there weren't 2-3 times your number because they would have loved to kill you all. Ah, we do understand time is running out for you, as the division cracks down ever harder each day and as more Iraqis come forward with information. And every day more Iraqi security units take the field. Nonetheless, stick to the micro attacks of opportunity that have actually served you reasonably well so far.  Or go kill more civilians, like the 2 Japanese diplomats and the 2 ROK contractors who are in Iraq to help your people. You seem to be really good at that.  Killing civilians is indeed a despicable act, but in this case no one will blame you if you avoid the US Army. We all have to die sometime, but why give the infidel foreigners the pleasure of cutting you down  like quail?

·         US officers have apparently told Time that 140 prisoners are to be released soon, from Guantanamo. This represents 20% of the total. The sources say many of the men are indeed dangerous, but some appear to have been kidnapped by warlords, and handed over to US forces for the bounty placed by the Americans on Al Qaeda and Taliban fighters. They would not normally have been kept under detention in any event.

·         Jang of Pakistan says "The Taliban claimed on Sunday that their fighters had captured the Mizan district headquarters in the southwestern Zabul province after killing eight government soldiers. Taliban spokesmen Hamid Agha and Mohammad Hanif told The News on the satellite phone from an undisclosed location in Afghanistan that Mizan fell at 6 pm Sunday following a surprise onslaught on the district offices. They said the Taliban fighters overpowered and killed the eight defenders loyal to Karzai’s government and captured a number of vehicles and weapons. The Taliban spokesmen said their men had taken possession of Mizan. The Taliban claims couldn’t be independently confirmed."

·         Debka.com says US forces have killed 1100 insurgents, or a fifth of their strength, and is pushing the insurgents out of the Sunni triangle. Debka attributes the rise in attacks in the north and south to Sunnis who fear the US will divide Iraq into 3. [Orbat.com asks readers to be careful about this report because the 5,000 insurgent figure is believed by many to be too low. Nonetheless, when any force starts losing even 10% of its strength as killed, and presumably at the least double that in wounded and prisoners, its efficiency is going to start spiraling downward.]

·         BBC says Syria hands over to Turkey 22 bombing suspects who had fled to Syria. [Orbat.com comment: it seems certainly the Syrians are responding to "behavior modification" imposed by Washington.] Meanwhile, the Turks have identified 3 of 4 bombers in the four Istanbul attacks, and have charged one person who was captured while attempting to cross over to Iran.

·         BBC says on Sunday a group of Ivory Coast soldiers took over a TV station in the capital and demanded the President resume war against the rebels. They said they need to act within 48 hours, and want the resignation of the Army chief, presumably because he backs the fragile ceasefire being maintained by 4000 French and 1300 West African troops. The soldiers emphasize they are not staging a coup and support the President.