July 31, 2002
US Plans Small Invasion Force to Take Saddam Out
Fighting Resumes in Baidoa, Somalia
Pakistan closes more camps under US pressure July 30
July 29 Letter to the Times, from Field Marshall Bramall, re the Invasion of Iraq July 30
Jim Milne Comments On Activation of US 1-131 Armor July 30
Saudis, Gulf Emirs Bitterly Divided over US Iraq War;
Mubarak to Stay out July 29
A Defense of the Israeli Killing of Hamas Leader:
"The targeting of Hamas's bin Laden" July 28
U.S. hammers out plan to strike Iraq by 2003 July 28
US Plans Small Invasion Force to Take Saddam Out
[Since everyone else is coming out with their version of the proposed US plans for Iraq, why not Debka.com?. This article ran in Debka.com's subscriber newsletter on July 5 and was partly reproduced in the July 29, 2002 public edition.
Our military sources describe the present plan as being for a US-UK force of up to 75,000 troops attacking in three synchronous bridgeheads.
Force One
This first contingent, also the smallest - no more than 30,000 to 40,000 troops - will attack from the north, setting out from US installations in southern Turkey, mainly the large air base at Incirlik. They will link up with US special forces already present in northern Iraq, US commando-trained Kurdish forces, Turkish special forces positionednear Mosul and Kirkuk and Turkish-trained Turkomans.
Its primary mission will be to "cleanse" the Syrian-Iraqi Western desert on the frontier with Syria of Iraqi missiles, especially the ones capable of carrying chemical and biological warheads. Its second objective will be to seize all of northern Iraq and drive out Iraqi forces, before going on to capture the oil towns of Kirkuk and Mosul.
Force Two
This one will drive across from Jordan. Ferried in by airplane or helicopter, or parachuted in, the task of Force Two will be to seize three or four main air bases in western and central Iraq, after they have been thoroughly pounded in a US air-cruise missile blitz. The captured bases will be converted for the use of American bomber and fighter squadrons, some diverted from the Persian Gulf and Red Sea. This action comes under the overall plan for the US military to operate from inside Iraq - unlike the doctrine followed in Afghanistan, where the US army operated from outside bases. Engineering units will prepare Iraqi installations such as H-3, H-4 and the massive al-Baghdadi air base for the influx of US warplanes and troops.
Force Three
This force will push into Iraq in two waves, the first, comprised mostly of US special forces, from bases in Eritrea, Jordan and the Sinai and from US navy ships, will fan out across central Iraq, including Baghdad; its paramount mission being to strike and seize the headquarters and habitations of Saddam Hussein, his family and close associates, as well as the country's hidden depots of missiles and chemical and biological weapons systems.
The second wave, having captured and occupied bases inside Iraq, will advance from there to take on the heaviest and most dangerous combat assignment: destroying the Iraqi leadership and its military power base. Washington's military planners calculate that Saddam, rather than throw in the sponge, will throw his entire arsenal, including nuclear, biological and chemical weapons, against this force, an escalation that could bring forth an American nuclear response to take him out.
[30-40,000 troops for Force One makes it the biggest increment, not the smallest, but perhaps there was a mixup in summarizing the subscriber article for the public edition. Editor]
Return To Top July 31, 2002
Fighting Resumes in Baidoa, Somalia
From Allafrica.com.
Fighting again broke out in the southern town of Baidoa on Tuesday after a lull on Monday, local sources told IRIN [Integrated Regional Information Networks].
Monday was quiet after fighting over the weekend between factions of the Rahanweyn Resistance Army (RRA). It is not clear who started the latest round of fighting. "It looks like they used Monday to regroup and mobilise reinforcements," the sources said.
The fighting is still continuing "with people trying to get to safety", they added.
Meanwhile, elders mediating in the ongoing conflict have recommended the dissolution of the recently established self-declared autonomous Southwest State of Somalia (SWS), a member of the mediating committee told IRIN.
Ali Margus, a prominent businessman and senior member of the mediation committee, said the committee had reached this decision because "the establishment of the SWS was at the heart of the current fighting".
The RRA, which controls the Bay and Bakol regions in southwestern Somalia, established the SWS in late March, with the RRA chairman, Col Hasan Muhammad Nur Shatigadud, as president of the new regional administration.
However the decision was not popular with everyone and served to create divisions within the RRA's top leadership. This led to a deepening split between Shatigadud and his two deputies, Shaykh Adan Madobe and Muhammad Ibrahim Habsade, which eventually resulted in the current factional fighting in Baidoa.
Both Madobe and Habsade were unhappy with the formation of the SWS, since they felt it had sidelined them. According to local sources, both felt that by establishing the SWS, Shatigadud had politically sidelined them, and concentrated "all the power in his hands".
The mediation committee also agreed that the RRA would be the "only legitimate entity in the region" and Shatigadud would remain as its chairman, while Madobe and Habsade would stay on as deputies, Margus told IRIN.
He said a senior elders' council would be established to "supervise and oversee" the work of the RRA executive committee, which would be expanded "to bring in those sectors of the Rahanweyn which were not represented".
"All RRA militias will be put under one command, which will come under the elders' control," he added.
[We cannot claim to understand what exactly is happening in Somalia. Nonetheless, any country where the central authority is weak or non-existent is vulnerable to becoming a terrorist haven. We wonder if the United States will have to return and conduct national building in Somalia after all. The Afghan experience has shown nation building is not such a horrible mission. Editor.]
Return To Top July 31, 2002
July 30, 2002
Pakistan closes more camps under US pressure
July 29 Letter to the Times, from Field Marshall Bramall, re the Invasion of Iraq
Jim Milne Comments On Activation of US 1-131 Armor
US attack on Iraq could create a nuclear nightmare July 29
Saudis, Gulf Emirs Bitterly Divided over
US Iraq War;
Mubarak to Stay out July 29
Pakistan keen to buy second-hand warships: UK July 29
A Defense of the Israeli Killing of Hamas Leader:
"The targeting of Hamas's bin Laden" July 28
Powell play draws a blank July 28
No compromise on Kashmir: Musharraf July 28
U.S. hammers out plan to strike Iraq by 2003 July 28
Testy Indo-US ties mark Powell's India, Pak visit July 27
A Personal Comment On The Above Article: Editor July 27
Terrorists 'spread all over Europe' July 26
China Tests Missile Designed To Evade Missile Defenses July 25
Pakistan closes more camps under US pressure
By Chidanand Rajghatta in Washington, a story from the Times of India
WASHINGTON: There are indications that Pakistan's military regime is being forced to close down terrorist camps in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir following relentless pressure from the United States conveyed during Secretary of State Colin Powell's visit to Islamabad over the weekend.
The Bush administration is telling New Delhi to "trust, but verify."
Well-placed administration sources said Powell raised the issue of the camps at a fairly heated meeting with military ruler Pervez Musharraf. The Secretary also publicly expressed scepticism in Islamabad about whether Pakistan was fully adhering to its commitment to end infiltration and dismantle the camps.
Among other things, Powell said the incursions had decreased but not fully ended, and that Washington had not been able to ascertain that it had ended. The remarks rebuffed in the most direct manner Musharraf's claim that there were no infiltrations.
Shortly after Powell left Islamabad, militant groups in Kashmir said the military regime was forcing them to close the camps.
"We have closed down our training camps in Azad (free) Kashmir," a source close to the United Jihad Council, the main anti-Indian guerrilla alliance, was quoted as telling Reuters. "There is no more training of Kashmiri militants (in Pakistan)...We did it under immense pressure from the Pakistan government."
Pakistani analysts quoted in reports from there suggested the camps were being mothballed, and not completely dismantled, since the military regime was intent on using the terrorism card if India did not come to the negotiating table.
In Washington, the US is hedging from taking a decisive stand against Pakistan's use of the terrorism card. In conversations with this correspondent, administration officials maintained that India had to offer "some kind of incentive" for General Musharraf to sustain the crackdown on terrorism.
"If the Indians keep saying "you haven't proved it yet, you haven't proved it yet,' that makes it difficult for Musharraf to sell any peace moves. Some reciprocity is needed from India," a senior administration official said.
Asked how the US expected New Delhi to believe the Pakistani military or ascertain its commitments have been fulfilled given past experiences, the official said Washington could not be the arbiter of whether the infiltration had ended fully or the camps had been completely dismantled.
"We can only say 'Trust, but verify,'" he said, invoking a famous arms control slogan propounded by Ronald Reagan.
US officials expressed satisfaction with Powell's visit saying there had been no great expectations from the trip and that Washington wanted to "keep things moving along."
Secretary Powell however made a couple of significant points aimed at restoring the morale of the Pakistani establishment that feels it is at the losing end of the Kashmir imbroglio. He reportedly endorsed Islamabad's stand that Kashmir has now become an "international" issue, a formulation that is anathema to New Delhi, which wants the issue confined to a bilateral ambit.
Officials here however clarified that the US continued to believe it was a bilateral issue, and the Secretary was merely suggesting that it had begun to occupy international concerns.
Officials also played down the Secretary's suggestion of international monitors for the elections in Kashmir, saying it was just a suggestion, and transparency is in India's best interest.
[A comment by the Editor: Surely by now even the Government of India can see the outcome of its opportunistic and hasty decision to involve the United States in the Kashmir dispute. Fifty-five years of Indian policy in Kashmir is fast unraveling. The Indians should know by now they aren't the only experts at double-talk: the US does it better as can be seen from the above.
In Pakistan the US says Kashmir is now an international issue, which is what the Pakistanis want, then to keep India quiet, the State Department says that's not what Secretary Powell really meant. First Secretary Powell demands India release Kashmiri "political" figures, by which standard Osama Bin Laden is no more than a "political" figure himself. Then the US says its just a suggestion, for India's own good. Face facts, New Delhi: you thought to use Uncle Sam by bringing him into your poker game because you wanted to beat Pakistan over the head. You're down to your underwear now, and you'd better believe Secretary Powell will take that too on his next visit.
General Musharraf at least has the sense to realize he's lost everything. For thirty years your editor has been hearing from his fellow Indians about how naïve, how stupid, how foolish the Americans are. Now they're learning how naïve, stupid, and foolish they were to believe that.]
Return To Top July 30, 2002
July 29 Letter to the Times, from Field Marshall Bramall, re the Invasion of Iraq
The following delightful letter was sent to us by Gordon A. MacKinlay. He also informs us that except for 100 trainers, the UK has withdrawn in forces from Sierra Leone, consequent on the recent successful election and the training of a new national army.
Sir, The question we should be asking ourselves is not whether the Americans
can invade Iraq, or indeed whether they will invade, but whether they should
do so; and, of course, whether we should follow in their wake.
Apart from the difficult moral questions of lesser or greater evils, there
seem to be two distinct but tenable schools of thought on what the outcome
of such action would be.
The first is that if Iraq is successfully attacked, by whatever means, and
as a result, Saddam Hussein is removed, preferably with the help of a
popular uprising, the terrorist-ridden, war-torn Middle East would unravel
beneficially. It would then become a more benign, tolerant area in which
moderate Muslim governments would take heart, a Palestine solution would
become possible and the ability of terrorists to strike another dramatic
blow at the US (or indeed Europe), with or without weapons of mass
destruction, could be effectively neutralised. The flames of resentment and
protest which exist in the area today would have then, at least, been
doused, and the "war against terrorism" would have achieved a major victory.
The second viewpoint is that conflict with Iraq would produce, in that area,
the very display of massive, dynamic United States activity which provides
one of the mainsprings of motivation for terrorist action in the region, and
indeed over a wider area. Far from calming things down, enhancing any peace
process and advancing the "war against terrorism", which could and should be
conducted internationally by other means, it would make things infinitely
worse. Petrol rather than water would have been poured on the flames and
al-Qaeda would have gained more recruits.
It would be interesting to know to which of these two points of view the
British Government is more inclined.
America, with all the power at its disposal, and with no other superpower to
gainsay it, can presumably and eventually achieve any military objective it
wishes. I cannot help, however, but be reminded of that remark by a notably
"hawkish" General (later Field Marshal) Gerald Templar who when, during the
Suez crisis (1956), Britain was planning a massive invasion of Egypt through
Alexandria, said something to the effect of: "Of course we can get to Cairo
but what I want to know is, what the bloody hell do we do when we get
there?"
Yours faithfully,
BRAMALL,
House of Lords.
Return To Top July 30, 2002
Jim Milne Comments On Activation of US 1-131 Armor
Unlike many of us, our US National Guard specialist Jim Milne sees no particular significance in the recent activation of a US Army M-1 tank battalion, 1-131 Armor. Ostensibly called to service for "Homeland Security", the activation aroused speculation about an impending US invasion of Iraq. Mr. Milne thinks other considerations were in play.
It was with interest I read of the activation of 1-131st Armor. I located
the Governor of Alabama's press release of 17th July, 2002. He announced
the impending activation of approximately 300 personnel from 1-131st Armor
and 200 personnel from 1-20th SFGA. DOD has not yet announced it in their
weekly reserve mobilization update. I think that the 1-131st Armor will
replace 1-167th Infantry at their duty stations in a base security role,
leaving their M1A1s at home. The 1-167th is in its 8th month of activation
and should demobilize in the next several weeks. Although the press release
states 1-2 years active service, most ARNG activations are for 270 days or
less. There is not much to be gained by speculation about this particular
piece of news. We know that Task Force Santa Fe began returning from Europe
starting on 17th July and will end around 14th August. Task Force
Keystone's first increment left for Europe 17th July and will end with the
third increment's arrival around 14th August. Other battalion sized units
are now demobilizing, while others are mobilizing to replace them. It seems
to me this is all a routine "changing of the guard".
Return To Top July 30, 2002
July 29, 2002
US attack on Iraq could create a nuclear nightmare
Saudis, Gulf Emirs Bitterly Divided over
US Iraq War;
Mubarak to Stay out
Pakistan keen to buy second-hand warships: UK
A Defense of the Israeli Killing of Hamas Leader:
"The targeting of Hamas's bin Laden"
Powell play draws a blank July 28
No compromise on Kashmir: Musharraf July 28
U.S. hammers out plan to strike Iraq by 2003 July 28
Testy Indo-US ties mark Powell's India, Pak visit July 27
A Personal Comment On The Above Article: Editor July 27
Benazir Bhutto set to win PPP leadership July 27
Terrorists 'spread all over Europe' July 26
Afghan Raid Linked to Hunt for Omar July 26
Rivalry Revived In Afghanistan July 26
China Tests Missile Designed To Evade Missile Defenses July 25
US attack on Iraq could create a nuclear nightmare
Richard M. Bennett
With United States and British Intelligence covert action teams supported by US Special Forces units already operating in the Kurdish areas of Northern Iraq and in the Basra area near the Kuwait border it is now quite obvious that the Bush administration intends ratchetting up the pressure on Saddam Hussein sooner rather than later. Sources close to the US intelligence community confirm that a serious clandestine effort will be fully underway by the end of August aimed at destabilizing the Baghdad regime through internal dissension, defection and increasing the possibility of a coup by senior members of the Iraqi Government anxious to avoid their nation being sacrificed once again on the alter to a dictators ego. The timing of a major air and land campaign may be conditional on the effectiveness of the Special Operations. If there appears to be a good chance of bringing about an internal change of regime, then the conventional operation may be delayed, if not then October appears to have been pencilled in on the Pentagons calendar.
The nuclear nightmare scenario revolves around the well founded belief that Saddam Hussein has so far refused Islamic Jihad's constantly repeated demands to have unlimited access to Iraq's weapons of mass destruction program as long as he perceives an opportunity to either delay or avoid a major war with the United States. Usually reliable sources in the Gulf have told AFI Research that they understand that this decision will be reversed the moment Saddam Hussein becomes totally convinced that it is only a matter of time before President Bush gives the final go ahead to remove him. At that point Osama Bin Ladin will be given whatever he most desires; deployable chemical and biological weapons, technology and equipment to produce such weapons and possibly enough nuclear material for a number of 'dirty bombs'. It has to be pointed out that with the bellicose statements issued by The Whitehouse, the Pentagon and by leading members of the US Military, Intelligence and Diplomatic communities in recent weeks, it would be reasonable for the Iraqi President to have already come to that opinion. It is therefore quite conceivable that the
Al Qa'ida terrorists are already or soon will be in possession of the very weapons of mass death that the United States most fears.
Return To Top July 29, 2002
Saudis, Gulf Emirs Bitterly Divided over
US Iraq War;
Mubarak to Stay out
From DebkaFile
Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak has decided after much agonizing and consultation to keep Egypt out of the upcoming American campaign against Iraq. This exclusive information reaches DEBKAfilefrom sources in Cairo and Madrid - Mubarak's last port of call. He has also decided not to permit the US to use Egyptian military bases for the campaign
The Egyptian ruler thus places himself on the same Middle East square occupied by Saudi crown prince Abdullah since last year.
In the last ten days Mubarak, hard pressed to make up his mind, sought advice from friends and allies in Europe. On July 20, he paid an unannounced call on Saudi king Fahd at his holiday palace on the shores of Lake Geneva, followed by a visit to the President of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Said Nayanan, who is vacationing nearby. Four days later, Mubarak came calling on French president Jacques Chirac in Paris and, on July 26, he held discussions in Madrid with Spanish prime minister Jose Maria Aznar.
According to our sources, the Egyptian ruler solicited support for his decision in all those visits.
Mubarak's stance has sharpened the divisions in the Arab world and heightened instabilities in at least one capital
Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Syria now lead the opponents of an American military move against Saddam Hussein;
Jordan, Kuwait and Qatar head the proponents.
A. This realignment drops in the middle of a long festering dispute at the top level of the House of Saud. Fresh rumors picked up by DEBKAfile's Gulf sources speak of a failed attempt on the life of the ailing king Fahd in Jeddah, on or around July 14, shortly before he departed for his summer vacation in Geneva. This incident added fuel to the running feud between the Sudeiri faction of the royal house, led by Fahd and his full brother, defense minister Prince Sultan (the leading contender for the succession against Abdullah and father of the Saudi ambassador to Washington, Prince Bandar), and the group led by their half-brother, the regent Abdullah.
B. Riyadh now shows an angry face to the Gulf Emirates siding with US action against Baghdad. The Saudis have stopped attending Gulf Security Cooperation Council meetings, refusing to sit at the same table as rulers they look down on as American collaborators. Saudi-Qatari ties have been effectively severed, with Qatari notables no longer welcome in the oil kingdom, while Saudi relations with Kuwait have likewise soured.
C. On the flip side of the coin, Jordanian military and businessmen are suddenly welcome in Kuwait for the first time since the 1991 Gulf War when Jordan sided with Iraq. Jordan and Qatar have also struck up a warm friendship.
The report of an attempt to murder King Fahd is the talk of the moment in the Gulf. It is claimed that on July 14, the monarch's bodyguard fought off a band of 5 to 7 intruders, who gained entry to the palace courtyard in Jeddah through one of the main gates after setting off a large explosive charge. Three of the would be assassins were killed; the rest fled when armed reinforcements poured in from neighboring princely palaces, together with a contingent of the special Saudi counter-terror force. The bodies were identified as Saudi members of al Qaeda who fought in Afghanistan, escaped through Iran and arrived home last January. The identity of one of the dead assailants seriously heated factional tempers in the royal family; he is said to have been a member of the Wahhabist Uteiba tribe, loyal adherents of crown prince Abdullah.
For some months, the Sudeiri princes have warned Abdullah that his permissive policy toward returning al Qaeda fighters - and the lavish living allowances awarded them from religious institutions and charities - would lead to trouble in the kingdom. Some have hired out as bodyguards protecting the princes of Abdullah's faction, religious leaders and tribal chiefs in the Jeddah district.
Sudeiri prince Salman, governor of the Riyadh region, was fiercest in his criticism. He warned
Abdullah that by making Saudi intelligence and security services grant the returning terrorists clearances as bodyguards for official personalities, he was effectively opening the door to al Qaeda's penetration of the national security agencies.
The nub of the argument, according to DEBKAfile's Saudi experts, is that while the Sudeiris perceive Abdullah's patronage of al Qaeda veterans as a major threat to their own security, the crown prince believes he is taking out insurance for his regime's survival.
The differences between the two factions appear to be irreconcilable. They have brought King Fahd out of semi-retirement and induced him to return to political life. Visitors at the palace in Geneva report that, while confined to a wheel chair, the king looks brighter and more alert than he has been for a long time.
Among his Arab visitors this week were Mubarak and King Abdullah of Jordan, both of whom congratulated him on his safe escape. On Saturday, July 27, the Saudi king had two secret visitors from his Sudeiri clan: Prince Salman and deputy defense minister Abdul Rahman, the strongman of the military establishment.
This unfolding showdown in the oil kingdom has not been lost on President George W. Bush in Washington. Confronted with crown prince Abdullah's flat refusal to participate in the US offensive against Iraq or allow its use of Saudi bases (as reported repeatedly in DEBKA-Net-Weekly in recent issues) , the Bush administration has turned back with a will to America's traditional allies in Riyadh, the Sudeiri princes, favoring them against Abdullah's sternly Islamist camp. The standoff between the two has yet to be resolved.
,br>
It also has a Palestinian offshoot.
Despite the clear anti-American, pro-al Qaeda stance adopted by the Saudi crown prince, some Israeli political circles are echoing the view current in some West European capitals that Abdullah's peace initiative is still alive and the Saudis are working for a ceasefire with the Palestinian Tanzim, the Hamas and the Jihad Islami. Some European publications have even run an upside down picture of the reality in Riyadh, labeling Abdullah as the leader of the pro-American faction in the Saudi royal family, and Sultan and his brothers as the sponsors of al Qaeda.
To keep the record straight amid a welter of misinformation, DEBKAfile 's Palestinian sources reiterate that no Saudis are involved in Palestinian issues at the moment - certainly not in any attempts to broker a ceasefire. They are far too busy with the trouble in their own house.
Return To Top July 29, 2002
Pakistan keen to buy second-hand warships: UK
From the Daily Jang of Pakistan
KARACHI: Pakistan has shown interest in purchasing second-hand warships from Britain, said Captain Andrew Welch, Naval and Air Adviser of British High Commission, here on Sunday. "But presently no ships are available for sale," he said while briefing journalists onboard Royal Navy warship HMS Cumberland at Karachi port.
The ship is on a goodwill visit of Pakistan and will conduct a joint one-day exercise with Pakistan Navy on Monday. "This exercise will be very extensive and tough," Captain and Commanding Officer of the ship, I F Corder said.
He said that talks were in progress with the Romanian government for sale of HMS Cumberland, Type 22 Batch 3, which has weapons fit, the fire power of a cruiser and is capable of engaging targets above, on or below the sea surface.
It has also a comprehensive communications, command and control outfit. Cumberland was accepted into service in the Royal Navy in November 1988 and commissioned in June 1989. "In case we cannot strike a deal with the Romanians, our second choice will be Pakistan for the sale of HMS Cumberland," Corder said.
He said since 1997, it was first visit of any Royal Navy ship to Pakistan. Corder said that the crew of the ship had opportunity to visit the UK-origin eight ships that were now part of Pakistan naval fleet. He said Pakistan and UK enjoyed very cordial defence cooperation.
About the security situation in the region and particularly Pakistan, Corder said UK had greater experience of terrorism related activities than Pakistan and it was very difficult to be safe in any part of the world. He appreciated the Pakistan Navy that provided very comprehensive security to the ship and its crew who visited the city. "But terrorism cannot stop us doing our normal business," he said.
Return To Top July 29, 2002
A Defense of the Israeli Killing of Hamas Leader:
"The targeting of Hamas's bin Laden"
By Uri Dan, the Mideast correspondent of the New York Post, writing in the Jersualem Post [This is not the complete article].
The elimination of Hamas leader Salah Shehadeh in a combined General Security Service and Israel Air Force operation had a purpose beyond the obvious one: to inform Hamas that its chiefs are not immune to Israeli attacks.
Shehadeh, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin's right-hand man since 1984, was mainly responsible for setting up the murder organization's secret cells. He knew more than the Koran by heart; his excellent memory, combined with his operational leadership capability, caused death and injury to many hundreds of Israeli victims of Hamas's attacks.
Therefore, despite the very real pain and sorrow many Israelis felt when the one-ton bomb that killed Shehadeh in Gaza also harmed innocent Palestinians, it should be remembered that Shehadeh and his accomplices in the Hamas leadership are the ones responsible for these killings, just as their elected president, Yasser Arafat, is responsible for the tragedy that has overtaken the Palestinian people.
Monitoring Shehadeh's movements was complicated. The man was aware he occupied first place on Israel's hit list particularly after becoming commander of the organization's military wing in Gaza. Shehadeh also recently also took command of the Izzadin el-Kassam battalions in Judea and Samaria.
,br>Israel's success in eliminating terrorist leaders in Judea, Samaria and Gaza forced him to find better ways to hide his movements. Consequently, the death of the terrorist who might well be termed Hamas's Osama bin Laden not only dealt a serious blow to Hamas's leadership and operational capability, but was also a first-class achievement for Israel.
Predictably, however, this achievement in the cruelest and longest war Israel has known has once again evoked the kind of criticism voiced by certain Israelis after virtually every Israeli success against Palestinian terror.
It's worth knowing how to reply to the ridiculous arguments that were heard immediately after Shehadeh's elimination:
This act will cause additional acts of revenge by Hamas, warn the political commentators.
Not true: Suicide bombing attacks are clear Hamas policy, and as such are carried out at every opportunity and in every place, employing explosive belts, car bombs and shootings. Shehadeh's targeting has caused serious, long-term damage to Hamas's suicide capability.
Why did Prime Minister Ariel Sharon decide to eliminate Shehadeh just as political talks were commencing with the Palestinians, ask the demagogues among Israeli apparatchiks?
Yassin told Reuters he was prepared "to consider" a cease-fire if Israel withdrew from the West Bank, halted the targeting operations and released Palestinian prisoners.
So there were, in fact, no "political talks." Sharon had authorized by Foreign Minister Shimon Peres to talk to the Palestinians about economic issues like how to release money that could alleviate their economic/ social/ humanitarian difficulties.
It may be that Peres still dreams, for his own sake, of saving his Nobel Peace Prize partner, Arafat, and making him a partner in negotiations once again, but this is just the foreign minister's delusion.
Even the US administration has declared that the Palestinians have to elect a new leadership if they wish to commence a peace process with Israel.
Regarding Yassin's generous declaration to Reuters: Does anyone … believe Israel would for a moment agree to depend on the considerations of Yassin and his gang?
SCATHING ATTACKS on Israel also came from European countries because the targeting of Shehadeh harmed innocent children and Shehadeh's wife as well as the terrorist.
But European and other foreigners should hold their tongues they still haven't expressed regret for the hundreds of innocent Serbs killed in NATO's air attacks on Yugoslavia in 1999.
I was there. I saw with my own eyes what this bombing did to innocent civilians.
But no one accused the NATO democracies of murdering those Serbian citizens because it was obvious that US secretary of state Madeleine Albright, who was responsible for that war, had not done it intentionally.
What most European Union representatives, with their usual venomous criticism, would really like is to deny Israel its right of self-defense, a right that was the raison d'etre of Israel's establishment. This European approach would seem to contain not a little anti-Semitism.
It was accepted for centuries that the Jews lay at the mercy of the Europeans who in the end did nothing to prevent the Nazi annihilation of six million of our people.
Return To Top July 29, 2002
July 28, 2002
Powell play draws a blank
No compromise on Kashmir: Musharraf
U.S. hammers out plan to strike Iraq by 2003
Testy Indo-US ties mark Powell's India, Pak visit July 27
A Personal Comment On The Above Article: Editor July 27
Benazir Bhutto set to win PPP leadership July 27
No denial of Iraq blockade talks July 27
Terrorists 'spread all over Europe' July 26
Afghan Raid Linked to Hunt for Omar July 26
Rivalry Revived In Afghanistan July 26
U.S. to Mediate Afghan Tensions July 26
China Tests Missile Designed To Evade Missile Defenses July 25
Assassination of Hamas Leader July 24
Israel eases targeting of terrorists' kin July 24
Powell play draws a blank
From the Times of India
NEW DELHI: Talks between visiting US Secretary of State Colin Powell and External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha failed to yield any new ground on the Indo-Pak stalemate.While India reiterated its well-known position on the ''need for Pakistan to deliver on its pledges'', the US side said it was used to its friends keeping their pledges. Sinha ruled out any further de-escalatory steps saying the ''necessary conditions do not exist at present.'' Powell spoke of the difficulties in monitoring the situation on the LoC. He also appreciated the movement towards free and fair elections in Jammu and Kashmir saying they should take place without violence.
After two hours of talks the external affairs spokesperson claimed the ''concentration was on bilateral issues''.Steering clear of questions relating to whether the US had called for a dialogue or de-escalatory steps, the spokesperson said there was recognition of the need for Pakistan to deliver on its pledges.
The two sides discussed a wide range of topics including military cooperation, energy, economic cooperation, science and technology and the need for enhancing private sector participation.Powell had arrived here early on Saturday evening amidst speculation that the visit would be a low-yield event. The Secretary of State himself articulated the fears hours before his arrival during a refuelling stop in Italy, saying he was not expecting a breakthrough ''of the kind we saw a month or so ago'' when the visit by Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage led to a series of de-escalatory steps from New Delhi.
Minimising the expectations from this visit even further, Powell indicated that his primary aim would be to ensure there was no return to the days of high tension, saying ''we don't want to be back where we were a few months ago''.
Return To Top July 28, 2002
No compromise on Kashmir: Musharraf
From the
Daily Jang of Pakistan, by
Shakil Shaikh
ISLAMABAD: President General Pervez Musharraf said Saturday that Pakistan would never compromise on its just stand on Kashmir, and Armed Forces were ready to meet any war challenge. The president made these remarks while addressing a special conference of top military commanders held here at the General Headquarters. He presided over the conference, which was attended by all corps commanders and principal staff officers.
President General Musharraf said Pakistan would continue to support UN Security Council resolution calling for future of Kashmir to be decided through plebiscite. India has been trying hard to hold sham polls in Indian occupied Kashmir to throw dust in the eyes of the international community.
Indian forces' deployment in Jammu and Kashmir has been increased, with renewed oppression being unleashed on innocent population and particularly against the APHC leadership. With US Secretary of State Powell visiting the region, India is trying to play up the situation and it has been consistently telling Americans to exert pressure on Pakistan for staying away and let the sham polls held.
The president briefed the participants about the prevailing international and regional environment and interaction of the government with foreign dignitaries from USA, Lebanon, Iran, UK and Sri Lanka who had visited Pakistan in the recent past. He also spoke of his upcoming visit to Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Later, President Musharraf gave an overview of the law and order situation in the country. He informed the commanders of the improvement that was discernible in the performance of the law enforcement agencies. He observed that the induction, training and motivation of the police force had improved resulting in the capture of a large number of terrorists.
Return To Top July 28, 2002
U.S. hammers out plan to strike Iraq by 2003
By Warren P. Strobel and Jonathan S. Landay writing in the Philadelphia Inquirer
.
WASHINGTON - The Bush administration is moving forward aggressively with planning to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, laying the groundwork for a possible U.S.-led invasion early next year, according to senior U.S. officials and individuals involved in the planning.
Under one scenario being discussed at the Pentagon, a force of 250,000 to 300,000 U.S. troops would invade Iraq and overthrow Hussein, backed by massive air strikes. Turkey, Kuwait and Qatar have indicated they would allow their territory to be used for an attack.
But some civilian aides to Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld are pushing for a quicker - and, critics say, riskier - thrust in an attempt to catch Hussein off guard. That strategy would involve roughly 80,000 troops and could be in place by this fall.
Proponents of this approach argue that a surprise attack is vital because the Iraqi leader knows that, unlike in the 1991 Persian Gulf war, the U.S. goal this time will be his ouster. Thus, he may be tempted to lash out first with chemical or biological weapons.
"If it happened in October, I wouldn't be completely surprised," said one official involved in the planning. He and others spoke on condition of anonymity.
President Bush - who has repeatedly declared his intention to get rid of Hussein - has made no final decision on which, if any, plan to execute, the officials emphasized.
And the White House has not yet begun a concerted effort to convince the U.S. public, Congress or American allies of the need to preemptively strike Iraq.
Washington's two closest Arab allies, Egypt and oil-rich Saudi Arabia, oppose military action against Iraq, as does virtually every European ally except Britain.
But even in Britain, domestic opposition to an invasion is growing, forcing Prime Minister Tony Blair to stress yesterday that a decision on an attack was not imminent. But he refused to promise to seek Parliament's approval for any strikes.
Please click on the URL for the full story.
Return To Top July 28, 2002
July 27, 2002
Testy Indo-US ties mark Powell's India, Pak visit
A Personal Comment On The Above Article: Editor
Benazir Bhutto set to win PPP leadership
No denial of Iraq blockade talks
Former Taliban Leader Warns Of Pakistan Attack July 26
Terrorists 'spread all over Europe' July 26
Al-Qaeda linked terrorists planned attacks in Singapore: officials July 26
U.S. Troops Deploying to Philippines July 26
Afghan Raid Linked to Hunt for Omar July 26
First Afghan Army Battalion Finishes Training July 26
Rivalry Revived In Afghanistan July 26
U.S. to Mediate Afghan Tensions July 26
U.S. Halts Overtures To Iran's Khatami July 26
China Tests Missile Designed To Evade Missile Defenses July 25
Navy plans floating commando baseJuly 25
Assassination of Hamas Leader July 24
Israel eases targeting of terrorists' kin July 24
Testy Indo-US ties mark Powell's India, Pak visit
By Chidanand Rajghata writing from Washington in the Times of India.
WASHINGTON: US Secretary of State Colin Powell returns to the subcontinent this week amid a recurrence of the periodic testiness that has characterised ties between Washington and New Delhi.
At the heart of the current sour mood is New Delhi's view that the US is not fully helping the cause of peace in the region with its backing of a militaristic Pakistan.
On the other hand, Washington is irked by what it sees as India's cussedness in not responding quickly enough to de-escalate the situation in the region despite "concessions" by Pakistan.
Ahead of his trip to the region, Powell told reporters on Thursday that there has been some reduction in infiltrations across the line of control, "but it is still unfortunately the case that...terrorist violence takes place."
Powell said "I will see if there are any other actions that can be taken that will reduce the level of violence or the potential for violence."
The Indian side feels Washington has not been sufficiently forceful or persevering in doing that. Pakistan's military regime is getting away by not dismantling what India calls the infrastructure of terrorism, so that it can be used on another day.
New Delhi is also clearly unhappy that Washington is strengthening Musharraf's hand and not Pakistan's. While paying the usual lip-service to the return of democracy in Pakistan, the US has winked at changes being brought about by Musharraf that will ensure that he wields the real power indefinitely.
"They are making a terrible mistake. They will have a Pakistan that will be like Shah's Iran or Marcos' Philippines. They will have the loyalty of a dictator but not the people. But who's to tell a superpower that?" one Indian official who is an old Pakistan-hand declaimed.
There is further disquiet on the Indian side over the resumption of a military relationship between the US and Pakistan under the ostensible excuse that Washington needs to restore its influence with the Pakistani military.
So far, the US has resumed supplying Pakistan what it calls non-lethal items to help fight terrorism on its Western front. But press reports in Pakistan say the US has agreed to revisit the issue of supplying F-16s to Islamabad.
Indian officials say anytime Washington strengthens Islamabad's military hands, it underserves the cause of the peace in the region given the Pakistani military's penchant for adventurism that has seen it initiate three wars against India.
New Delhi has been further irked by the reluctance in a section of the US administration to clear the sale of missile defence system to New Delhi even as it reopens the issue of arms supply to the military regime in Pakistan.
Return To Top July 27, 2002
A Personal Comment On The Above Article: Editor
India's purposes would be better served if, instead of whining all the time about Pakistan, it actually did something about its adversary.
What, may we ask, has India done about dismantling the infrastructure of terrorism in Pakistan? Please, lets not reply: India restrained itself from going to war to give the US a chance to take care of Pakistan. In fact, the United States did us a great favor by intervening with Pakistan, otherwise the hollowness of India's threats and its empty promises of punishment would today stand exposed.
Why is it that American arms in particular fuel Pakistan's penchant for adventurism, and not Chinese arms or French arms? Is there something magical about an F-16 that makes Pakistan twirl its collective mustaches in macho fashion and explain: "I say! I feel great in this F-16, lets go and bash India!".
And what three wars is India talking about? The first war for Kashmir was indeed started by Pakistan, but Kashmir was not part of India when the war began, not did Pakistan expand the war outside Kashmir when the territory acceded to India. Yes, the second war for Kashmir was also started by Pakistan. If anyone cares to read their own history, however, they will find that after 1962 the United States dramatically reduced the supply of arms to Pakistan. Also, Pakistan attacked because India's massive buildup post 1962 led Pakistan to believe that it had one last chance to seize Kashmir before India's military superiority made it impossible. The 1971 War was started by India. The 1999 Kargil War, which for some reason the Government of India does not want to call a war, was an open attack on the Union of India by Pakistan. It took place while Pakistan was under a tough American arms embargo.
I do not accept the legitimacy of the partition of India. The Government of India, however, has done so from 1947 onward. If the GOI accepts Pakistan as an independent country, then it has to accept that Pakistan is the best judge of its military needs. India, spending five dollars for every one Pakistan spends on defense, is not exactly in the highest moral position to complain about arms supplies to Pakistan.
And why this sudden love for democracy in Pakistan? In 1947 and 1999, Pakistan was under civilian rule. In 1962, when Pakistan agreed not to attack India while India was withdrawing every last division from the Punjab to send against China, Pakistan was armed to the teeth with American weapons. In 1965, it was Mr. Z.A. Bhutto, a civilian, who persuaded his military masters to go to war with India. In 1971, it was the same Mr. Bhutto who, by refusing to accept the results of the election that gave the Prime Ministership of Pakistan to an East Bengali, precipitated the Pakistan civil war, giving India the chance to break up Pakistan. Technically, infiltration into Kashmir had started when General Zia was President of Pakistan. General Zia, however, was an exceedinglycautious leader, being a military man he knew the consequences of pushing India too far. It was under a civilian Prime Minister, first Ms. Benazir Bhutto, and then Mr. Nawaz Sharif, that the insurgency heated up into a full fledged war - and why the Government of India fails to call what has been going on in Kashmir a war is also beyond this writer.
Does the Government of India seriously believe that it is a lack of democracy that leads Pakistan to fight India over Kashmir? Pakistan fights India over Kashmir because it believes Kashmir belongs to Pakistan, and a civilian leader would be even more vulnerable to popular pressure than a military leader. In any case, by complaining about Pakistan's governance, the GOI is interfering in the internal affairs of Pakistan. It really isn't our business what the Pakistanis decide is right or wrong for them. If we keep complaining, what's to stop the United States and the West from saying what happened in Gujarat does not serve democracy in India and they must do something about it?
I do have a theory about why the GOI didn't call 1999 a war and doesn't call Kashmir a war. If we said these were and are wars, then the people of India would expect the GOI to fight back, wouldn't it? And the GOI would have to go fight Pakistan, instead of sitting on its collective behind and giving lectures to Secretary Powell about how America is not doing enough to control Pakistan. Earth to Indian National Security Establishment: America has its own problems with Pakistan, and in the main, these are not the same as our problems with Pakistan. If we want respect from America and the world, don't waste your breath lecturing. Go do what needs to be done for us to sort out our Pakistan problem, and take the consequences for better or for worse.
Return To Top July 27, 2002
Benazir Bhutto set to win PPP leadership
From the Daily Jang of Pakistan
KARACHI: Former prime minister Benazir Bhutto is set to walk a ballot for the leadership of her party as she was the sole candidate for the post when nominations closed on Friday, party officials said. [Walk as in a walkover in a match. Editor]
Internal party elections were made mandatory to qualify for the October 10 parliamentary poll by new laws introduced by military ruler Pervez Musharraf.
The twice-deposed Bhutto lives abroad in self-imposed exile, but has vowed to return after the schedule for the October 10 elections is announced. Senior vice chairman of her Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) Makhdoom Amin Fahim filed Bhutto's papers on Friday, the last day for nominations, party election commissioner Aftab Shaban Mirani said. [Ms. Bhutto's husband is in jail under trail for corruption, and if she was to return without the United States' protection, jail is where she would be too. This is not the same thing as a self-imposed exile. Editor]
"Two nominations papers were filed on her behalf... one by Amin Fahim and another by former judge Rasheeda Rizvi, and there is no other candidate for the post," Mirani said. He said the formal results will be announced on Monday.
No denial of Iraq blockade talks
From the Islamic Republic News Agency, IRNA of Iran.
The British government has refused to deny
that talks are taking place with the Australian military over a
blockade of Iraq based in neighbouring countries.
"I cannot confirm the discussions," government whip, Baroness
Crawley, told peers in the House of Lords during a short debate on
Iraq on Thursday.
The issue was raised by former chairman of the all-party Foreign
Affairs Committee, Lord Howell, who spoke of talks reportedly going
on now in London between British military authorities and the
Australian SAS.
The discussions were said to be "about the various positions they
would take up in the proposed blockade which will be operated from
Turkey, Kuwait, Qatar and other areas around Iraq."
During the debate, Liberal Democrat leader in the House of Lords,
Baroness Williams, voiced concern that any debate on the UK
supporting US-led military action against Iraq would be "either too
early or too late because the decision has already been taken."
She referred to Tony Blair saying during Prime Minister's
Questions on Wednesday as to "when" a decision would be taken to
attack Iraq, even though he later said it was a slip of the tongue.
During a televised press conference on Thursday, Blair denied that
military action against Iraq was imminent.
Return To Top July 27, 2002
July 26, 2002
Editor's Note: This second extensive compilation by our editor Johann Price is intended to provide a comprehensive global overview of the war against terrorism.
Former Taliban Leader Warns Of Pakistan Attack
Terrorists 'spread all over Europe'
Al-Qaeda linked terrorists planned attacks in Singapore: officials
U.S. Troops Deploying to Philippines
Afghan Raid Linked to Hunt for Omar
First Afghan Army Battalion Finishes Training
Rivalry Revived In Afghanistan
U.S. to Mediate Afghan Tensions
U.S. Halts Overtures To Iran's Khatami
Iraq Denies Getting Air Defense Missile from Russia July 25
Fighting intensifies in Somalia July 25
China Tests Missile Designed To Evade Missile Defenses July 25
Navy plans floating commando baseJuly 25
Assassination of Hamas Leader July 24
Israel eases targeting of terrorists' kin July 24
Afghan Leader's Safety Fears Mount July 23
Afghan warlords get cash rewards to stay in line July 23
A Note on the SIS and Covert Action July 22
WAR ON TERROR
Former Taliban Leader Warns Of Pakistan Attack
From AFP, July 23
A former Taliban commander says Islamic militants led by al-Qaida want to strike quickly against American interests in Pakistan in retaliation for the death sentence in the Daniel Pearl murder case and the ongoing crackdown on Muslim extremists.
Fazul Rabi Said-Rahman, once the top Taliban military commander in eastern Afghanistan, said it was important to the militants to act quickly because Pakistani security forces were stepping up pressure on Taliban and al-Qaida members who fled the U.S. military campaign in Afghanistan.
''There will be another big attack in Pakistan, and it will happen soon,'' he told The Associated Press in an interview conducted Friday in a moving vehicle in this Pakistani city 40 miles from the Afghan border. Said-Rahman predicted the attack would be carried out by Pakistani militants at the instructions of al-Qaida operatives. But he would not discuss details except to say the attack would be carried out in a Pakistani city.
The warning was similar to one he conveyed less than three weeks before the June 14 car-bombing at the U.S. Consulate in Karachi, which killed at least 12 Pakistanis. His associate, Obeidullah, a former assistant to Taliban intelligence chief Qari Ahmadullah, also had spoken of an upcoming attack shortly before the May 8 car bombing in Karachi that killed 11 French engineers and three others, including the bomber.
[Orbat.com note: Following the earlier credible threats to European missions the French consulate in Karachi has moved in to the much more heavily defended British embassy's compound. The French suspended visa services after the suicide attack in May that killed 11 DCN technicians.]
Return To Top July 26, 2002
Terrorists 'spread all over Europe'
From USA Today, July 22 By Vivienne Walt
PARIS - Al-Qaeda and other Islamic extremist groups are continuing to recruit members in Europe and are active in almost every European country despite a 10-month dragnet for terrorism suspects, Europe's new anti-terrorism chief says.
Even though its training facilities in Afghanistan were smashed during the U.S.-led war there, al-Qaeda is continuing to look for members. "Recruitment is still going on," says Peter Gridling, an Austrian who took control this month of Europol's counterterrorism unit. Europol, based in The Hague, Netherlands, is a law enforcement coordination and intelligence agency for the 15-nation European Union.
"We've learned that almost all countries have al-Qaeda-trained people and sympathizers," Gridling says. "We know that they are spread all over Europe and that there is contact between people.".
Gridling's comments in an interview indicate concern that some terrorist operatives are staying a step ahead of European authorities. "The network is mutating and adapting at lightning speed," says Magnus Ranstorp, deputy director of the Center for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland.
Roland Jacquard, president of the Paris-based International Observatory on Terrorism, estimates that more than 200 people have been arrested in several European countries, including Belgium, Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Spain, since Sept. 11.
Two key factors are hampering European investigators:
· A shortage of Arabic, Pashto and Urdu speakers among law enforcement agencies in Europe. Pashto is one of the main languages spoken in Afghanistan; Urdu is spoken in Pakistan and India.
"There are very few people who can listen to communications or infiltrate mosques," Jacquard says. CIA and FBI anti-terrorism forces have similar problems, according to a report released last week by a congressional subcommittee.
· Europol's surveillance excludes Eastern Europe, where criminal networks may be producing forged identity documents used by terrorists. "Eastern Europe hasn't even begun to deal with al-Qaeda's presence," Ranstorp says. "The whole environment is conducive for the entry of terror, from Bulgaria to the Czech Republic and the Balkans."
European authorities also are bracing for terrorist attacks. "Europe is now very implicated in Afghanistan and the war on terror. So it has become as much of a target as the United States," Jacquard says. "Unfortunately, I believe there will be a big attack in Europe."
[Orbat.com agrees entirely with Monsieur Jacquard]
Return To Top July 26, 2002
Al-Qaeda linked terrorists planned attacks in Singapore: officials
From AFP, July 23
SINGAPORE- A suspected terrorist arrested in Oman was named today as the mastermind behind planned attacks on US and Israeli targets in Singapore including suicide bombings. The claim by Singapore officials was the first reference to suicide attacks figuring in plans by the militant Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) to target US and other Western targets in a bombing campaign. In a statement to AFP today, the ministry said two men, code-named "Sammy" and "Mike" were the brains behind the operation and intended bringing in suicide bombers from overseas.
Return To Top July 26, 2002
U.S. Troops Deploying to Philippines
From AFP, July 23
MANILA, Philippines (AP) - The U.S. will start a series of
training exercises in October for Philippine troops that will
involve a constant American military presence in the country for at
least eight months, officials said Tuesday.
The exercises will follow a six-month counterterrorism training
maneuver in the south designed to help the Philippine military wipe
out the al-Qaida-linked Muslim extremist Abu Sayyaf group. The
training ends next week.
The presence of foreign troops has been a sensitive issue,
particularly after the Philippine Senate voted not to renew the
lease on a U.S. naval facility in 1991, ending a nearly century-old
American military presence in the former U.S. colony.
Armed forces Chief of Staff Gen. Roy Cimatu said a total of
around 4,000 soldiers from both sides will be involved in the new
exercises that would run until next June. He did not say how many
will be Americans.
[Cimatu] said the training of the LRC units, designed for rapid
counteterrorist deployment, would take at least four months and
three months are needed for the battalions.
About 1,000 U.S. Special Forces, military engineers and support
staff were deployed for the counterterrorism exercise.
[Orbat.com note: Outside the Afghanistan-Pakistan theatre of operations the Philippenes remains the largest commitment of ground forces in the war on terror]
Return To Top July 26, 2002
AFGHANISTAN
Afghan Raid Linked to Hunt for Omar
From the Washington Post July 23, by Susan B. Glasser
BAGRAM AIR BASE, Afghanistan, July 22 -- Fugitive Taliban leader Mohammad Omar may have been in the immediate vicinity of a U.S. bombing raid on July 1 that killed dozens of civilians attending a wedding celebration, according to the commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan.
In an interview today, Lt. Gen. Dan K. McNeill said publicly for the first time that the raid was connected with the hunt for Omar and cited intelligence reports that Omar "may still be in the area" of Uruzgan province where the U.S. operation mistakenly attacked civilians. In the past, U.S. officials have declined to say what the forces were looking for during the Uruzgan raid, and although McNeill said that Omar was "not the target of this operation," he acknowledged that the raid in the Deh Rawod district was aimed at generating more specific information about Omar's whereabouts.
Rest of story can be found here
[Orbat.com note: This is the first public confirmation of something that has been known for several months among those who watch the war closely. It was in fact Omar's acceptance of the sanctuary offer that led to his abandonment of Kandahar January 6th and the collapse of the Taliban in Afghanistan]
Return To Top July 26, 2002
First Afghan Army Battalion Finishes Training
From American Forces Press Service, July 23 By Jim Garamone
Afghan and coalition leaders see the Afghan National Army
as a stabilizing influence in the war-torn country. The
army will be the instrument of the national government and
will be trained and equipped to defeat any direct
challenge.
Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Defense Minister Mohammad
Fahim, and Combined Joint Task Force-180 Commander Army
Gen. Dan McNeill attended the graduation exercises.
The 1st Battalion, 3rd Special Forces Group, from Fort
Bragg, N.C., trained the 300-man Afghan battalion. More
than 300 trainers and staff helped in the process.
Armed forces in Afghanistan previously were under the
control of ethnic or geographic groups. One of the main
challenges was overcoming language barriers, according to
U.S. Central Command spokesman Marine Gunnery Sgt. Charles
Portman. Interpreters translated course materials from
English to Dari and Pashtu.
Another challenge was getting the groups to work together.
"The Afghan National Army is a mix of all ethnic groups in
the country," said Army Sgt. Don Dees, a U.S. spokesman at
the academy. "Bringing the guys together to work hand-in-
hand with each other in National Army was challenging."
The French have already started training a second battalion
of the Afghan force and U.S. trainers will begin training a
third battalion on July 27.
The first battalion will be in garrison in Kabul, Combined
Joint Task Force-180 officials said. "It's important to
stress that mission employment of this battalion is all
under the command and control of the Afghan Ministry of
Defense," Dees said. The battalion will be stationed in
Kabul so it will be centrally located in the event it is
needed to provide security.
[Orbat.com note: see below article to get an idea of conflicts within the chain of command. Fahim, the Defence Minister
also commands the far larger and stronger Tadjik army whose army is listed on this site. There is plenty of evidence that Fahim has interefered with the formation of the Afghan National Army in order to protect the influence of the former]
Return To Top July 26, 2002
Rivalry Revived In Afghanistan
From the Washington Post July 24, by Susan B. Glasser
KABUL, Afghanistan, July 23 -- It was the mid-1990s, and Kabul was a battleground for warring Islamic factions. Rocket fire blasted the city. The government was disintegrating. In the chaos, Hamid Karzai, a deputy foreign minister, was seized for interrogation by the country's feared secret service. The agents who held him worked for Mohammed Fahim.
Karzai escaped when a rocket slammed into the building where he was being questioned, according to several sources familiar with the episode, which has not before been made public. Bleeding from a head wound, he bolted in the ensuing bedlam for Pakistan.
Nearly a decade later, Karzai, now Afghanistan's president, and Fahim, his defense minister, are locked in an escalating rivalry that threatens to further destabilize Afghanistan's shaky government. Karzai and his allies describe the secret service -- once again controlled by Fahim -- as a vast, corrupt and highly politicized apparatus that operates outside the president's authority. According to a source close to Karzai, the agency has 30,000 employees and its departments are run by ethnic Tajiks from the Northern Alliance who answer only to Fahim.
Karzai has pledged to take on the agency. He named a high-level commission this month to recommend broad reforms and investigate allegations that the secret service tortured and killed Abdul Mutaleb, a 22-year-old construction worker who had just returned to Afghanistan after living for years as a refugee in Pakistan.
Karzai's challenge to the intelligence service is seen here as a contest over who will rule post-Taliban Afghanistan. To the ethnic Pashtun president and his supporters, the unchecked power of the Tajik-run secret service is a key obstacle to Afghan democracy that lies closer to home than either regional warlords who refuse to disarm their men or lurking remnants of the Taliban and al Qaeda.
Rest of story can be found here
[Orbat.com note: We would caution readers not to take the talk of Amaniya as an obstacle to democracy too seriously. This is about factional and ethnic suspicion of the risks of a truly national government. The Northern Alliance fought the Taliban for six years while the West ignored them, and until 1998 even tacitly encouraged them in the hope that they would bring stability to Afghanistan and access to Central Asian Oil. Their support came from Iran, Russia and India. Iran in particular is incensed with its 'axis of evil' label (see below) and US efforts to limit it's influence in Iran, and has chosen to fail to encourage Fahim on the road to integration. No doubt India is using i's influence over Fahim as part of it's efforts to convince the US to apply more pressure on Pakistan to end terrorism in Kashmir. Russia too has it's own wish list. The article also fails to point out that there are plenty of Pashtuns who are far more likely to do Karzai in first]
Return To Top July 26, 2002
U.S. to Mediate Afghan Tensions
From AP, July 24
HERAT, Afghanistan (AP) - The commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan offered Wednesday to help resolve tensions between Herat's pro-Iranian warlord and ethnic Pashtuns following reports of fighting in the west of the country.
Lt. Gen. Dan K. McNeill made the offer during a one-day visit to Herat for talks with the region's governor, Ismail Khan, the warlord whose independent style and ties to Iran have raised concern among U.S. authorities and President Hamid Karzai's government.
Rest of story can be found here
[Orbat.com note: As of the 23rd at least seven Tajik and five Pashtun fighters were killed, while dozens were wounded in the gun battle between the two factions fighting for control of Herat province's Sheen Dend district. Bad as it sounds Afghanistan would be a much happier place if all of it's regions were as stable. If Karzai falls the International community may do better to have powerful regional governors with clearly demarcated spheres of interest choose a President rather than the other way round]
Return To Top July 26, 2002
IRAN
U.S. Halts Overtures To Iran's Khatami
From the Washington Post, July 22 by Glenn Kessler
Reformist Faction Viewed as Unable To Achieve Change. The Bush administration has abandoned hopes it can work with President Mohammad Khatami and his reformist allies in the Iranian government and is turning its attention to appealing directly to democracy supporters among the Iranian people, administration officials said.
Rest of story can be found here
[Orbat.com note: This decision has much to do with the failure to sever Hezb'allah, Iranian intelligence and clerical links to Al Qaeda since 9/11. In orbat.com's view sidelining the reformists who hold a legitimate albeit limited position in Iranian government is a bad idea because these men and women are still Iranian nationalists and would vigorously oppose any change of government brought thorough extra-legal or revolutionary means. A more overtly confrontational strategy may not yield the desired results given that the Administration's energies are already divided between Afghanistan and Iraq.]
Return To Top July 26, 2002
July 25, 2002
Iraq Denies Getting Air Defense Missile from Russia
Fighting intensifies in Somalia
China Tests Missile Designed To Evade Missile Defenses
Navy plans floating commando base
Assassination of Hamas Leader July 24
Israel eases targeting of terrorists' kin July 24
Afghan Leader's Safety Fears Mount July 23
Afghan warlords get cash rewards to stay in line July 23
A Note on the SIS and Covert Action July 22
Indian Army Raises Fiftieth CI Battalion for Kashmir July 20
South African Army Destructs July 20
Britains Secret Service rediscovers its military muscle July 18
Iraq denies buying Russian air defense arms
Source: Times of India quoting AFP.
MOSCOW: Baghdad's ambassador to Moscow on Wednesday denied reports that Iraq could have imported any of Russia's S-300 systems to boost its battered air defenses.Such deals "are ruled out under conditions of a blockade," Ambassador Abbas Khalaf told the Izvestia daily.The ambassador also dismissed claims that Iraq might use nuclear, chemical or biological weapons if attacked, saying that "Iraq has never had weapons of mass destruction."
"From 1991 to 1998, some 3,500 international inspectors worked in Iraq, searched for weapons, visited nearly 4,000 sites of what they called suspicious facilities, and found nothing," he shrugged.
Iraq, a former beneficiary of the Soviet Union's military and economic aid, still sees Moscow as a key ally amid threats from Washington of a possible military assault aimed at unseating Saddam Hussein's regime.Russia opposes US military action against Iraq but favors the return of UN arms inspectors to the country in exchange for lifting UN sanctions imposed on Baghdad since its invasion of Kuwait in 1990.Since 1999, Western media reported multi-million-dollar secret deals between Moscow and Baghdad, aimed to upgrade and overhaul Iraq's aging MiGs and restore its air defenses to combat readiness.
Return To Top July 25, 2002
Fighting intensifies in Somalia
From the Daily Jang of Pakistan
MOGADISHU: Seventeen more people were killed in factional fighting in the Somali capital Wednesday, bringing the death in two days of violence to 30, witnesses said. The fighting, in the Medina area of southwest Mogadishu, is between militiamen loyal to warlord Musa Sudi Yalahow against those supporting his former ally Omar Mohamud Mohamed, better known as "Finish".
Most of the victims were civilians caught in the crossfire or killed when artillery shells struck residential houses. The dead included four children. Fighting erupted on Tuesday, but died down late in the afternoon with only sporadic gunfire heard in the area overnight.
Clashes intensified again on Wednesday morning. Yalahow and Finish are two former allies who headed the United Somali Congress/Somalia Salvation Alliance (USC/SSA) faction, but fell out in December when Finish signed a peace agreement with Somalia's interim government, which is fiercely opposed by Yalahow.
Each of the two warlords has claimed to be the head of the USC/SSA and the leadership feud is believed to be the cause of the bloodshed. "We have destroyed the military ability of Yalahow. His forces took refuge in the part of Medina controlled by warlord Hussein Mohamed Aidid," said Abdullahi Sheikh Hassan, one of Finish's allies.
Four of Yalahow's armed vehicles have been destroyed since Tuesday, including two that were taken out of action Wednesday when six militiamen travelling in them were killed, Hassan said. Hundreds of families have fled Medina and sought refuge in other parts of south Mogadishu, according to witnesses.
Return To Top July 25, 2002
China Tests Missile Designed To Evade Missile Defenses
The Associated press reports in Military.com that China on Tuesday fired a 1900-km range missile, the CSS-5, that launched several objects that might be decoys. The range brings Taiwan and Japan under threat. Conversely, the test could have been that of a MRV warhead.
An American official said that the experiment was "an expected development in China's missile program, taking place as its potential adversaries, including the United States and Taiwan, invest in missile defenses. China may need to overcome those defenses if it wants to maintain its nuclear deterrent, or its ability to strike back if it is attacked with nuclear weapons."
Return To Top July 25, 2002
Navy plans floating commando base
Dave Moniz writes in USA Today that the US Navy
wants to build a floating base of operations to sail commandos around the globe. Readers will remember that the US disembarked all except 8 fighters of the USS Kitty Hawk's carrier air wing and stuffed the ship full of SOF troops and aircraft to operate off Pakistan, before the US had useable bases inside Afghanistan. The Kitty Hawk decommissions next year, and converting it to a commando ship is one of three options being considered.
Other options include installing a flight deck on a large commercial or military cargo ship; or continuing to use active carriers for the job. This last has the disadvantage that it takes an active-duty carrier away from its main job, and operating a carrier costs almost half-billion dollars annually. The difficulty with the conversion is the ship would be slower than a carrier. No decision has been taken, and no time frame has been set for taking it.
[It seems to us that two more Wasp class LHAs would do the job rather nicely. Editor.]
Return To Top July 25, 2002
July 24, 2002
Assassination of Hamas Leader
Israel eases targeting of terrorists' kin
Afghan Leader's Safety Fears Mount July 23
Afghan warlords get cash rewards to stay in line July 23
Al Qaeda planning to attack embassies July 23
A Note on the SIS and Covert Action July 22
CIA Going Back To Basics July 22
Jiang Enlists Army to Fight Reshuffle
War on Terrorism July 21
Indian Army Raises Fiftieth CI Battalion for Kashmir July 20
South African Army Destructs July 20
Britains Secret Service rediscovers its military muscle July 18
Assassination of Hamas Leader
Compiled by Johann Price from various wire service reports and Israeli dailies
Early today an Israeli F-16 levelled part of an apartment building in Gaza city in the early morning hours of the 23rd,killing 15 Palestinians, 9 of whom where children. The target was 48 year old Salah Shehade, the founder and leader of the armed wing of Hamas (Izz el-Deen al-Qassam Brigades). Shehade was killed along with his wife, one of his bodyguards and possibly as many as three of his children. Their funeral has attracted 100,000 angry mourners.
The operation was approved by the Israeli Defence Minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer on Monday - Shehade had been on the hit list for some time and had survived three earlier attempts. Shehade was a maximalist who refused to countenance the possibility of reducing or abandoning the use of suicide bombers until Hamas achieved it’s goals. In this he differed considerably from Hamas founder and spiritual leader Sheikh Yassin. Interestingly enough while Hamas statements (presumably from Al-Qassam) has vowed bloody revenge Yassin almost immediately used the opportunity to issue a statement offering the possibility of a suspension of Hamas suicide operations if the IDF withdrew from the West Bank and ceased punitive actions against the Palestinians. It is arguable that ghastly as the civilian deaths are, this operation could pay for itself if, (and it’s a big if) Yassin and those who support him can retake control of the al-Qassam Brigade which had an uncanny ability of killing unacceptable numbers of Israelis just when the PLO and the Israeli government would show progress.
While PM Sharon is extremely pleased about taking out such a senior operational figure who was responsible for hundreds of Israeli casualties the view from abroad was uniformly negative. The number and nature of civilian casualties combined with the timing meant that even President George W Bush was unable to withhold criticism that more or less agreed with the entirely predictable EU and UN reactions.
For more on Salah Shahede’s career
Sheikh Yassin’s statements
International reactions
Return To Top July 24, 2002
Israel eases targeting of terrorists' kin
From the
Christian Science Monitor of July 23, 2002, an article by Ben Lynfield.
NEW ASKAR REFUGEE CAMP, WEST BANK - Mohammed Ajouri is a 68-year-old grandfather, but he is young enough to be part of Israel's new deterrent campaign against suicide bombers.
The arrest of Mr. Ajouri and the demolition of his three-story house here on Friday is Israel's response to the alleged actions of his son, a Fatah militia leader. It signals a tough new Israeli policy unveiled after two devastating Palestinian attacks last week.
Israel's plan, softened on Sunday, is to target "complicit" families of Palestinian suicide bombers. The aim is to persuade would-be bombers there will be a heavy personal price for their actions.
"If there is one thing an Arab cares about, it's his mother and father," says Israel's deputy internal security minister Gideon Ezra.
Mr. Ajouri is the father of Ali al Ajouri whom Israel says is responsible for dispatching a double suicide bombing team to Tel Aviv last week that killed three people in addition to the bombers.
The Israeli cabinet has endorsed the idea that it can save lives if it expels relatives of bombers from the West Bank to the isolated and enclosed Gaza Strip.
But the plan has met with a stiff international criticism and legal obstacles. On Sunday, Israel altered its criterion for expulsion of any family member. Only relatives "complicit or otherwise involved in the criminal terrorism of suicide attacks, including aiding and abetting" are to be deported, according to the foreign ministry.
The Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz reported yesterday that the deportation threat was working. Unnamed military sources said that two Palestinian families had turned in potential suicide bombers.
Even so, some Israeli analysts question the value of the tactic. "After two years in which there has been so much friction between the two sides, the desire for revenge is so great that this will not make any difference," says Reuven Paz, director of the Project for Research of Islamic Movements in Herzliya, a Tel Aviv suburb. "It may be a good method to calm down the Israeli public, but it will not deter terrorists."
The Shin Bet, the Israeli security service, is reportedly still interrogating 21 relatives of wanted men from the Nablus area.
If Mr. Ajouri is an example, most relatives of bombers, like most Palestinians, sympathize with "resistance activities" against Israelis, generally viewing them as a way of striking back against the army. Until four months ago, Ali Ajouri used to sometimes come to visit the family here, say relatives. His two brothers, Kifah and Ahmed, were also arrested Friday.
"Ali's father loved [his son's actions] and hated them," says a relative. "He knew that it would destroy the work of all those years of building the house. Now we cannot decide whether we are proud or sad."
Asked about the possible expulsions, the relative said: "The home is gone, Kifah's wife is pregnant, she has two sons and is expecting a new baby in the coming days. Ahmed has seven children and a wife. Food, money, children, schools. Who will take care of all these things?"
In response to the threat of deportation, the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade threatened to target the families of Israeli officials.
Israel has used deportation before but not against families. In the 1980s, individual deportations of Palestinian leaders to Lebanon caused them to lose some of their influence in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, says Mr. Paz. A mass deportation of 415 Hamas activists and leaders to Lebanon in 1991 "did not prove itself" in part because they gained a great deal of admiration in the Arab world, he says.
Israel intensively used house demolitions as a weapon against Palestinians during the early years of the first intifada uprising, from 1988-90, when 330 houses were demolished and 220 sealed, according to Israeli military statistics. But the practice was largely abandoned in the period after the 1993 Oslo agreement. This year, at least eight houses have been totally destroyed. Friday's demolition of the large Ajouri house here left 35 relatives homeless. Three neighboring houses were also damaged.
"House demolitions did not affect the first intifada at all, in fact committees were formed to rebuild houses" says Bassem Eid, director of the Palestinian Human Rights Monitoring Group. "Demolitions and expulsions never prevent actions against the Israeli people or government."
In Mr. Eid's view, no military actions ...only a peace process might solve the violence."
Yesterday, Israel's foreign minister said that Israeli troops are ready to withdraw from two of seven West Bank cities if Palestinian security forces can take over and prevent attacks against Israel. Israel also released $20 million of about $600 million in Palestinian tax revenues it has seized.
Return To Top July 24, 2002
July 23, 2002
Afghan Leader's Safety Fears Mount
Afghan warlords get cash rewards to stay in line
Al Qaeda planning to attack embassies
A Note on the SIS and Covert Action July 22
CIA Going Back To Basics July 22
Jiang Enlists Army to Fight Reshuffle
War on Terrorism July 21
Indian Army Raises Fiftieth CI Battalion for Kashmir July 20
South African Army Destructs July 20
Debka.com Article on US Bases in Eritrea July 20
IRA uses Colombia to test new weapons July 18
Britains Secret Service rediscovers its military muscle July 18
Afghan Leader's Safety Fears Mount
From the Associated Press, July 22 [Article has been shortened].
KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) - President Hamid Karzai has sidelined his Afghan bodyguards and called in U.S. troops to replace them in a sign of rising security fears following the murder of an Afghan vice president, his aide said Monday. Diplomats said the move followed ``serious threats'' against Karzai, some believed to have come from within his own Cabinet. The approximately 50 guards who were replaced were part of the 10,000-strong force of fighters loyal to Defense Minister Mohammed Fahim.
Concern over Karzai's safety has soared after the unsolved killing this month of Vice President Abdul Qadir, said presidential spokesman Said Fazel Akbar.
``The investigation into the slaying of Qadir has so far not produced results, and something had to be done to increase the president's security,'' Akbar told The Associated Press.
Sources at the sprawling downtown palace said the first of about 50 U.S. soldiers, including special forces, started deploying over the weekend to take care of Karzai's personal safety. A U.S. Army spokesman in Kabul, the Afghan capital, declined to comment, and Karzai has made no public appearances since the changeover.
``The people who guarded Karzai in the palace were simple soldiers who don't know much about organizing security,'' Akbar said. ``They will get the proper training (from the Americans), and in a few months, they will take over.''
A Western diplomat said on condition of anonymity that Karzai faced ``serious threats'' not only from remnants of the Taliban and al-Qaida but from warlords furious over Karzai's recent order to disband their private forces - whose presence is one of the most serious problems facing the government.
Afghanistan is in the process of training a new multiethnic national army, but those forces will be smaller than many of the private armies maintained by warlords.
Warlords run their enclaves like private mini-states often without regard for the central government, even though some, such as Fahim, have positions in Karzai's administration.
On Monday, Karzai, an ethnic Pashtun, named Fahim as the head of a 12-member commission in charge of forming the new National Army, state TV reported.
Warlords are reluctant to hand over weapons and troops to the national army. A new, internationally trained battalion provided security for the loya jirga in June, but more than one-third of the soldiers have since left the unit because of lack of support from Fahim's Ministry of Defense, according to the United Nations.
Fahim, an ethnic Tajik who commanded the northern alliance forces that chased the Taliban from Kabul with U.S. help last year, has an estimated 300 tanks and 500 armored personnel carriers at his disposal.
Some Western diplomats consider Fahim's force a possible threat to Karzai's administration, although none alleged he was part of any specific plot. They say that if Fahim wanted to topple Karzai, an ethnic Pashtun, he could easily sweep aside the lightly armed International Security Assistance Force that has been entrusted with Kabul's security.
Last Saturday, the international peacekeepers started separate training of 240 Afghan bodyguards to protect Karzai's Cabinet ministers and other senior officials. On Monday, 60 displayed bodyguard techniques on how to protect dignitaries.
Return To Top July 23, 2002
Afghan warlords get cash rewards to stay in line
From the Observer News Service, July 22, 2002, by Jason Burke & Peter Beaumont.
[When dealing with an Afghan warlord, when handing over money it is necessary to unequivocally to spell out consequences should he double cross. These consequences have to be something other than: "Bad boy! Go to the corner, and no more lollipops for you!". Many a warlord would rather take his million and run, rather than build a business relationship, which would better benefit him in the long run. Editor.]
LONDON: Britain and the United States are secretly distributing huge sums of money to persuade Afghan warlords not to rebel against their country's new government.
The Observer has learnt that 'bin bags' full of US dollars have been flown into Afghanistan, sometimes on RAF planes, to be given to key regional power brokers who could cause trouble for President Hamid Karzai's administration.
Gul Agha Sherzai, the governor of the southern province of Kandahar, Hazrat Ali, a commander in the eastern province of Nangahar, and several others have been 'bought off' with millions of dollars in deals brokered by US and British intelligence.
Many of the commanders benefiting from the operation have been involved in opium production, drug smuggling on a massive scale and widespread human rights abuses.
Without the hand-outs, Western intelligence agencies fear Afghanistan could collapse into anarchy, allowing Osama bin Laden's Al Qaeda group and former Taliban elements to regroup.
UK Foreign Office sources in London confirmed last week they were aware money was being 'circulated' to key Afghan warlords to persuade them to support the government. "It is certainly true that money has been distributed - it is the way things work in this part of the world - but no British money (is being distributed)," the source said.
"In any case, you do not buy warlords in Afghanistan: you 'rent' them for a period. The Russians discovered this to their cost. They would buy off a warlord and after a while he would come back and tell them: 'My men won't wear this arrangement any more. You will have to give me more money, or we will have to go back to attacking you'." However, The Observer has been told by reliable sources in Afghanistan and Pakistan that some UK money is being distributed, although most of it is American.
Relief workers in Afghanistan have criticized the hand-outs because they come when funds for emergency help and reconstruction projects in the war-damaged country are running low. Cash for roadbuilding, irrigation and power projects is unlikely even to reach Afghanistan before 2003, and only $4.5 billion of the estimated $15 billion needed to rebuild the nation has so far been pledged.
Previous attempts to buy the loyalty of warlords have met mixed results. During the battle of Tora Bora in April, local commanders were paid huge sums to send their own troops into the mountainous cave complexes where Osama bin Laden was thought to be hiding. The warlords involved in this operation, including Hazrat Ali, accuse each other of taking bribes from Osama to allow him to escape.
In Paktia province, the Americans paid Pacha Khan Zardran, a local commander who seized control of the eastern city of Khost last November, an estimated $400,000 to train and equip fighters to patrol the border with Pakistan. Since then, however, the government in Kabul has installed its own governor and forced Khan into the mountains, from where his troops have been shelling civilian areas in a bid to destabilise the new regime.
"You are playing with fire and pandering to the worst elements in Afghan culture and society," said one Pakistan-based Western diplomat. "Afghanistan would be better served by expanding peacekeeping forces or more aid for ordinary people."
Many Afghans in Khost blame the rising tension on the US. Paying the warlords for their services has triggered clashes among groups eager to win patronage from the Americans. In some areas commanders have been told they will receive a top-of-the-range $40,000 pick-up truck - a local status symbol - if they can prove they have killed Taliban or Al Qaeda elements.
Return To Top July 23, 2002
Al Qaeda planning to attack embassies
By Mohammad Asghar writing in the Dawn of Pakistan, July 22, 2002.
ISLAMABAD, July 21: The government has received intelligence reports that 24 Al Qaeda members and about 12 other terrorists have entered Pakistan in the last couple of days and are planning to target some embassies of European countries and Indian High Commission, a source said.
He said the terrorists first came to Dubai from India on Indian passports. Later, they went to a neighbouring country, from where they entered Pakistan.
The source said, according to information, the Al Qaeda members would scatter in different cities to carry out their terrorist activities. They are reportedly planning to target Indian Consulate building in Karachi some time in August, besides hitting some European embassies in the federal capital, he said.
The source said the German embassy was also on their hit- list. There are fears that terrorists may choose August 15, the independence day of India, for attack on Indian High Commission in Pakistan, he said.
In the light of intelligence information, the government has put provincial governments, chief commissioner of Islamabad and local law enforcement agencies on security alert, the source said.
He said all law enforcement agencies had been directed to take necessary action in this regard and make adequate security arrangements.
In another move, the interior ministry has directed the authorities concerned not to extend the stay of Indian nationals who were in the country on visit visas, the source said.
Furthermore, the home department has been directed to ensure the return of Indian visitors to their country within 10 days, while those who are living illegally must be arrested.
The Austrian embassy in Islamabad has also received a threat from terrorists and asked the Pakistani authorities to ensure its security, the official sources said. They said in the wake of the threat to the Austrian embassy, the Islamabad police have been directed to strengthen the embassy's security.
The United States embassy, and the UK and Canadian high commissions in the capital have also received threats from the terrorists in the last few weeks.
Return To Top July 23, 2002
July 22, 2002
A Note on the SIS and Covert Action
CIA Going Back To Basics
Jiang Enlists Army to Fight Reshuffle
War on Terrorism July 21
Indian Army Raises Fiftieth CI Battalion for Kashmir July 20
British Army Reorganization
July 20
South African Army Destructs July 20
UK to recall reserves, cancels exercises July 20
Debka.com Article on US Bases in Eritrea July 20
Murder Gun Betrays Greek Terror Group after 27 Years July 19
IRA uses Colombia to test new weapons July 18
Britains Secret Service rediscovers its military muscle July 18
A Note on the SIS and Covert Action
The following is a note from a reader apropos Britains Secret Service rediscovers its military muscle which appeared on July 18.
Covert action, especially of a paramilitary nature is very different from intelligence gathering but the ultimately political nature of such activity, and the requirement for secrecy means that intelligence agencies often end up with the responsibility of planning and/or execution. After absorption by SIS in 1946 the Special Operation Executive (SOE), which Churchill had created in 1940 brought to SIS its quite spectacular WW II unconventional warfare achievements in Europe and in SE Asia along with a strong confidence in the utility of clandestine direct action. Unfortunately paramilitary operations of the late 40s and early 50s in Eastern Europe failed miserably (classically in Albania) because the communists states were simply too strong, too well organised and too ruthless to allow local resistance movements a halfway decent chance. It didn't help that Western efforts were in many ways half-hearted, and compromised by high-level moles such as the infamous Kim Philby. SIS in-house capabilities for covert action of a military or special operations nature were reduced in the early '50s and finally eliminated.
After the Suez fiasco (Sir John Sinclair's tenure as 'C' from '53-'56 was known as 'the horrors' in SIS) the UK's policy establishment dedicated itself to fighting the Cold War rather than struggling to maintain independent great power status. In the UK we had to make the most of our resources in order to produce the kind of intelligence that allowed us to 'punch above our weight' and keep the 'special relationship' alive. Earlier experience with paramilitary covert action had made it clear that 'rollback' as the Americans call it was unrealistic, but that containment was possible and the key ingredient would be intelligence. As a result GCHQ and SIS ever increasingly focused on gathering denied political, military, economic and scientific intelligence from the Soviet Union and Communist Europe (especially East Germany and Poland). Covert action was to be of a largely political nature in support of containment; influencing elections and the political scene of vulnerable and strategically significant countries by supporting some figures and parties while discrediting others, and if necessary precipitating changes of governments. In other words the primary weapons were money and the artful projection and manipulation of information. There were of course many other crises and proxy wars against the Soviets that required certain specialised military skills. Whenever the need arose SAS officers or more often senior NCOs -some of them retired and others temporarily taken out of service- were tapped for specific missions such as Yemen, Afghanistan or Cambodia and dozens of other places, often on behalf of US administrations deterred by Congressional opposition and the freedom of information act. These men were never 'in' SIS, and could have hoped for little in the way of support if anything had gone wrong. More importantly their skills and outlooks had little clout within the institution. There was no real centre of excellence for this sort of thing within the organisation, although all newly recruited field intelligence officers received a course at Ft. Monckton that for largely sentimental reasons remained steeped in the paramilitary traditions of SOE - much like the course for fresh CIA clandestine Service officers at 'the farm'. What Richard Bennett has pointed out is that SIS has finally recognised that not only is the cold war over but so are the days of the 'peace dividend'. Our chief worries are not economic espionage and trade wars, genocidal Balkan conflicts or even a Russia gone bad as we imagined in the 90s. Unfortunately Bin Laden doesn't do the cocktail circuit. Covert action alone cannot defeat terrorism, but there are times and places where there is no alternative.
The CIA's well-known paramilitary experiences mostly centred around supporting (Afghanistan) or opposing insurgencies (Laos) depending on which side the Communists were. The French and the Israelis have on the other hand have also used covert action for several decades in their wars against a variety of terrorist organisations and networks, often with a high degree of success. They disrupted training, finance, logistics, leadership and communications by attacking facilities and snatching or disposing specific individuals. The Americans possessed a strong covert action capability in the Middle East, especially Lebanon during the '80s but apparent failures of political will and conflicting interests stunted their potential to change the ground situation in their favour. It is no longer something we can to turn to sporadically every few years, taking months to organise and stand up each time. Not only are we fighting Al Qaeda on 5 continents - we have to prepare for other missions such as the depositions of Saddam and his Weapons of Mass Destruction programmes in Iraq. In this kind of shadow war covert action is something that has to be tied in closely with the intelligence cycle without spreading SAS/SBS so thin as to hurt their to ability to respond to military crises, provide defence diplomacy and keep up with it's own training schedules. This means building up expertise, building planning and C2 structures i.e. assigning a piece of the budget, creating positions of responsibility and getting the right people. One only hopes there will be plenty of close collaboration with the Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence, and adequate funding from the government to keep up with these new demands. Excessive compartmentalisation due to government fear of embarrassment will produce at best mediocre and at worst disastrous results.
Return To Top July 22, 2002
CIA going back to basics
Forwarded by Gordon A. MacKinlay, and article by David Rennie of the Telegraph (of London), filed July 20, 2002
The CIA has sent orders to its field officers worldwide allowing them to
recruit informers with violent or criminal backgrounds without first seeking
approval from Washington.
The rules overturn 1995 guidelines designed by Congress to rein in contacts
with sources linked to criminal activity or human rights abuses. Congress
now fears that such restrictions are hampering the CIA's attempts to
infiltrate terrorist groups.
Shortly after the September 11 attacks, CIA chiefs indicated that the
guidelines would be dropped but no explicit orders were sent to stations and
field offices.
On Tuesday, a nine-month congressional inquiry concluded that American spies
were hamstrung by their unwillingness to recruit unsavoury sources. The
inquiry, by the terrorism sub-committee of the House intelligence committee,
urged case officers to spend more time on the streets, and less time in
their offices.
It also found that CIA agents are woefully ignorant of foreign languages and
rely too heavily on intelligence from other countries. According to public
extracts from the top secret inquiry, more than two thirds of the most
recent class of CIA case officers in training have no foreign language
skills.
The CIA and FBI have now promised an aggressive campaign to recruit
linguists, especially in Arabic and Asian languages.
Return To Top July 22, 2002
Jiang enlists army to fight reshuffle
Also forwarded by Gordon A. MacKinlay, and article by
Damien McElroy with Brigade 196 of the People's Liberation Army,
Filed July 20th, 2002 in The Telegraph (of London).
Powerful elements within the People's Liberation Army are spearheading a
movement to retain Jiang Zemin, 76, as head of the Chinese Communist Party
at a congress in September which is supposed to bring a new generation to
power.
The congress is expected to result in the biggest reshuffle of China's elite
since the tumultuous days after the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989.
It had been expected to result in Mr Jiang's replacement by Vice-President
Hu Jintao, but a behind-the-scenes campaign by the PLA seems to have put
paid to that, according to diplomats.
Other leading septuagenarians, including Li Peng and Zhu Rongji, currently
the second and third in the politburo, will fall victim to change. These and
thousands of other personnel decisions will be agreed next week, though the
congress is still two months away.
Behind the high walls of guest houses and villas set back from the winding,
tree-lined lanes above the seaside retreat of Beidaihe, last-minute
preparations are already under way for the hordes of party officials
expected for the "pre-meeting".
At the tightly guarded villas, many of them built by British expatriates as
holiday homes at the beginning of the last century, officials will make the
crucial decision on the composition of the seven-man politburo standing
committee responsible for personnel.
From it will flow decisions on party posts, central government appointments,
provincial positions and army commands, as well as leadership appointments
in universities, institutes, hospitals and government enterprises.
The move away from the expected switch in the top job stems from two
sources: Mr Jiang appears to want to remain, and the army is characterised
by an innate resistance to change.
Mr Jiang's supporters are spreading doubts about the "untested" qualities of
his putative successor, Mr Hu, while proposing that he should be made state
president next year, allowing Mr Jiang to remain as general secretary until
2007. As a consolation, Mr Hu, 59, is expected to be offered one of two new
deputy general secretary posts as a guarantee that he remains heir apparent.
But with Mr Jiang's protege, Zeng Qinghong, set to take the other deputy
position, there is speculation that support for the unassuming Mr Hu is
perilously weak.
"There is a point of view that Mr Hu has been lying too low to make a mark
and has thus left a window for challengers ahead of the congress," said a
European diplomat.
Military supporters of Mr Jiang see the Chinese leader as a stabilising
figure. One senior general, Zhang Wannian, is rallying PLA brigades behind
him. The tone of the campaign is easily identifiable at Brigade 196, based
40 miles east of Beijing. The commanding officer admits that the Chinese
military still lags far behind many foreign forces but adds that great
strides to improve performance have been taken under Mr Jiang.
"With the development of the economy under Chairman Jiang we have been able
to develop our weapons systems very fast," said Lt Col Dong Bing, of Beijing
Air Division 24. "We hope that this can continue in the future."
A huge procurement programme has lifted spending on arms imports to more
than £2.5 billion a year. The need for new equipment is all too plain.
Scuffed and ageing Chinese-designed F8 fighter aircraft fly past with great
noise and little speed. With his planes barely kept in the air by the ground
staff, Cdr Wang Wei is eager to try out the Russian-designed Sukhoi 30
fighters which Mr Jiang ordered from Moscow last year in one of a series of
multi-billion-pound deals.
"Jiang Zemin has been very skilful in winning over the military by granting
it more and more resources," said Joseph Cheng, of City University, Hong
Kong.
"He has used that support in a bid to hang on to his positions and in the
last few months it appears his supporters have tipped the scales. The
opposing forces are too weak to form a united front to stop him."
"The military don't really feel they know Hu Jintao and so a sudden change
of leadership worries them," said Jean-Pierre Cabestan, of the French Centre
for Research on Contemporary China. "They feel they need a transitional
period of time with Jiang in charge."
Outside the ranks of his loyalists, Mr Jiang's decision to cling to power
dismays those who detest the stolidity of the regime.
Ding Zilin, a retired mathematics professor whose son, Jiang Jielan, was
shot in the Tiananmen Square massacre, says Mr Jiang is delaying China's
reckoning with its past by clinging to power.
"No matter what conferences convene, there is no change in the nature of the
system," she said. "I have no hope that change will come."
Return To Top July 22, 2002
July 21, 2002
War on Terrorism
Indian Army Raises Fiftieth CI Battalion for Kashmir July 20
British Army Reorganization
July 20
South African Army Destructs July 20
UK to recall reserves, cancels exercises July 20
Debka.com Article on US Bases in Eritrea July 20
Murder Gun Betrays Greek Terror Group after 27 Years July 19
Pakistan not to be tagged terrorist:US July 19
IRA uses Colombia to test new weapons July 18
US Bases in Eritrea July 18
Britains Secret Service rediscovers its military muscle July 18
Our Editor Kirill on the Hizbollah in Palestine July 17
War on Terrorism
Our editor Johann Price has put together a wide-angled view of developments last week in the war against terrorism. So much is happening that it's difficult to get a handle on the big picture. We hope this article will help in demonstrating the global scope of the new war which looks to continue - as many Americans have said - for decades if not for generations.
Introduction
It has been a busy few days in the war on terrorism. What we are seeing here is synergism - countries and agencies working together to produce a result greater than the sum of it's parts. While this kind of constant pressure limits Al Qaeda's ability to move people, information and resources to the right places and right times to mount attacks we should not underestimate their capacity for surprise. It is estimated that some 110,000 men went through Bin Laden's camps though only 3,000 were ever invited to join Al Qaeda. Despite the destruction of their training bases and sanctuary in Afghanistan Al Qaeda for the medium term future has access to a pool of motivated and trained individuals, many of whom are unknown to authorities. Lastly we present Dr. Rohan Gunaratna's piece. It is over two months old but there hasn't been a great deal of change since then. While readers may disagree with certain positions (such Pakistan's willingness to drive a wedge between the Taliban and Al Qaeda) it should be known that Dr. Gunaratna has been intensely studying Al Qaeda since 1998 and his understanding of the organisation is only surpassed by those intimately involved in the war on terrorism.
Philippine police arrest would-be suicide bomber
From the July 19th Washington Times.
MANILA - A man suspected of planning to carry out a suicide bombing has been arrested in the Philippines based on information provided by the U.S. government, officials said yesterday.
Ahmad Abdellatif Jubran, said to be Jordanian, was arrested by immigration and anti-terrorism agents in Manila on May 16. Several months ago, U.S. authorities informed the Philippines that Mr. Jubran was apparently preparing for a suicide attack outside the Philippines, the officials told the Associated Press.
Prior to his arrest, Mr. Jubran informed his wife that he was "leaving the Philippines to be with the martyrs" in messages monitored by Philippine authorities.
7 Al Qaeda Suspects Held
From the Associated Press, July 19th.
PESHAWAR, Pakistan -- Working closely with FBI agents, Pakistani police detained seven suspected members of Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network in a series of predawn raids, security officials said.
The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the targets of the raids were two senior al Qaeda figures, but neither was picked up.
All seven men, Somalis and Sudanese, were taken into custody in the University Town area of Peshawar, which was a stronghold of Islamic militant groups during the 1980s.
Suspected al-Qaida Captured at Sea
By Pauline Jelinek, Associated Press.
WASHINGTON (AP) - After months of searching the high seas, the international anti-terror coalition for Afghanistan captured four men with suspected al-Qaida links, possibly uncovering an escape route through Iran.
Two were captured by Canadian sailors last weekend in the Gulf of Oman and the others by a French warship Wednesday in the same general area east of the Arabian peninsula.
In both cases, the men had sailed from Iran, two defense officials said Friday on condition of anonymity.
And the boat or boats used in both cases belonged to the same owner, one official said, declining to name the owner or his type of business.
The similarity of the two captures - and fact they came after months of no luck in the ship interdiction program - has prompted military officials to question whether there is a pattern.
It was too early to tell until those detained were more clearly identified, one official said, adding it also is possible some of the men were merely pirates or criminals caught up in the terror war dragnet.
U.S. forces Friday were holding the four in detention facilities at a U.S. military base in Bagram, Afghanistan, where they had been airlifted for interrogation.
Searching everything from small wooden boats to huge commercial freighters, sailors from a dozen nations have scoured the seas in the hunt for al-Qaida terrorists fleeing Afghanistan or their weapon shipments.
They've questioned captains of more than 15,000 vessels. They've stopped, boarded and searched more than 180 ships and boats in spots stretching from the coast of Pakistan to the Mediterranean Sea to the Strait of Gibraltar.
But until now they have captured no one. And the only discovery of contraband was in February when a Canadian ship patrolling the Arabian sea discovered and sank a vessel carrying drugs.
Among other countries in the region, Iran and Iraq have served as corridors for al-Qaida fighters fleeing Afghanistan and going home to countries on the Arabian peninsula and elsewhere, U.S. officials have said previously.
And Iran has temporarily sheltered some members of the terrorist organization, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld has charged.
Iran has rejected allegations that it is tied to the those fleeing Afghanistan.
The interdiction program began in late November in the region around Afghanistan as the U.S.-led coalition in the war took city after city away from former Taliban rulers. Officials feared Osama bin Laden and other al-Qaida leaders might flee the landlocked country, crossing Pakistan or Iran to the sea. Also, intelligence officials worried about information they had that bin Laden owned or controlled some two dozen ships and might be using them to smuggle drugs, diamonds or otherwise funnel money to terrorist activities.
Weeks later, the hunt for people in the region was expanded north to search vessels in the Mediterranean for weapons or anything that could be used to finance or promote terrorism.
Over the months, nations that have participated also include Australia, Bahrain, Britain, Italy, Germany, Japan and the Netherlands.
In the case of the February drug find, Canadian and U.S. ships sank a wooden vessel after a boarding party found 20 packages of hashish, about the size of cement blocks and each wrapped in blue plastic stamped with the words ``Freedom for Afghanistan'' in English. Investigators have said drug trafficking profits have been used to finance al-Qaida.
Under the interdiction program, approaching vessels are contacted by radio or other signal and asked to identify themselves and their cargo. Most are allowed to go on their way.
Coalition forces stop and board vessels if the crew acts suspicious, the vessel has varied its route, or coalition forces have prior intelligence about it.
Spain arrests three suspected Al Qaeda members
July 17th, Christian Science Monitor.
MADRID, SPAIN - Spanish police have arrested three suspected Al Qaeda members and seized videotapes of several US landmarks including the World Trade Center filmed "from every angle," Interior Minister Angel Acebes said Tuesday.
Acebes said the three suspects were of Syrian origin and that one of them was "clearly implicated in the financial infrastructure of Al Qaeda." Ghalyoun and Abu-Aljer had Spanish nationality, police said.
During the arrests, which took place on Tuesday in Madrid and the eastern city of Castellon, five videocassettes were found containing footage filmed by one of the suspects, Ghasoub al-Abrash, during a 1997 visit to the United States.
Two of the videotapes were of the Twin Towers, filmed "from every angle and from every distance," said Mr. Acebes.
Other landmarks filmed as "possible terrorist targets," according to the Interior Ministry, included the Brooklyn Bridge, the Statue of Liberty, San Francisco's Golden Gate Bridge, Chicago's Sears Tower, and California's Disneyland and Universal Studios theme parks.
Footage of the inside and outside of an unidentified New York airport were also seen on the tapes, the ministry said.
Two of the tapes included "extremely violent" scenes of rebel fighting in the Russian republic of Chechnya as well as scenes of "terrorist training," Acebes said.
He said that one of the suspects, identified as Abdalrahman Alarnaot, received training in an Al Qaeda camp in the Bosnian village of Zenica.
The third man, Mohamed Khair, was said to be an Al Qaeda financial handler, forced to leave Syria because he was a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamic fundamentalist organization.
Acebes said that Khair received a visit from a man known to act as a messenger for Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden shortly after al-Abrash returned from his 1997 US visit.
Spanish police acted on arrest mandates issued by judge Baltasar Garzon, who has been heading an investigation into suspected Al Qaeda cells in Spain.
The same investigation previously led to the arrest of nine people on charges that they belonged to a cell "that was directly involved in the preparation and carrying out of the Sept. 11 attacks."
Madrid's El Pais newspaper reported last month that the Sept. 11 hijackers met secretly last July in the northeastern Spanish town of Tarragona to finalize their plans.
The paper quoted Spanish intelligence sources as saying pilots Mohammed Atta and Marwan al-Shehhi met with four other Islamic extremists at the port, where they decided to transfer money to Zacarias Moussaoui, the French-Moroccan national currently in US custody awaiting trial in connection with the Sept. 11 attacks.
Untimely American bombs, bringing its twin enemies together at a crucial moment, were a catastrophic error
From the The Scotsman, May 26th, 2002.
By Rohan Gunaratna. Dr Rohan Gunaratna is Research Fellow, Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, University of St Andrews, Scotland, and author of Inside Al Qaeda: Global Network of Terror.
THE US, allied and coalition troops in Afghanistan are today facing a protracted campaign that is likely to last at least a decade.
The single biggest failure to shorten the lifespan of al-Qaeda, its principal enemy, stemmed from the US blunder of not giving Pakistan sufficient time to drive a wedge between al-Qaeda and its host, the Taliban.
Immediately after September 11, Pakistan's chief executive, General Pervez Musharaaf, dispatched three high-powered delegations to meet with the Taliban leader - the Emir of the Believers Mullah Muhammed Omar - requesting him to surrender the al-Qaeda's Emir General Osama bin Laden. As the Taliban was a force created, nurtured and sustained by Pakistan, the ruling party of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan began to crack under the pressure. Within a month, two factions emerged within the Taliban: a large silent faction which favoured handing over Bin Laden and a vocal faction led by Mullah Omar and opposed to the hand-over.
With Mullah Omar arguing Bin Laden's actions were fully compatible with Islam, Islamabad suggested he could be tried in a Muslim country. Islamabad's sustained pressure was close to winning the day.
At this stage the US became deeply suspicious of Pakistan, launching air strikes on al-Qaeda and Taliban positions in Afghanistan on October 7 last year . The US did not permit Pakistan's diplomatic initiative to take full effect due to a lack of understanding and intelligence on developments in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
The consequences were devastating. Mullah Omar announced that the US, "the key enemy of Islam", had targeted the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, a sovereign independent state, and rallied support to fight the US and its allies.
The US actions drove the Taliban's indoctrinated rank and file to believe that the West was now going to "go after Islam" and they had to team up with Osama bin Laden, the "hero of Islam" after al-Qaeda bombed the US embassies in East Africa in August 1998; USS Cole in October 2000; and the World Trade Centre and Pentagon in September 2001.
Al-Qaeda was a small force of 3000 members, mostly Arabs, but with the Taliban it was much stronger.
Compared to al-Qaeda, a foreign force, the Taliban enjoyed vast support in Afghanistan. Had the US intelligence community understood the implications of unity between a relatively unpopular al-Qaeda and a popular Taliban, it would have postponed the US strikes. Today, al-Qaeda - essentially an Arab force - is able to infiltrate, probe and strike targets because of its links to the Afghan community through alliance with the Taliban.
To attract recruits and support, al-Qaeda and the Taliban continue to build confidence among Islamic youths.
During the last two decades, the Islamists successfully fought the Soviets and the Northern Alliance (primarily backed by Russia) in Afghanistan and the Russians in Chechnya. In Islamist literature and propaganda, "holy war by the brothers against the infidel West" is presented as a continuation of Muslims' duty since the decade long anti-Soviet Afghan campaign that ended in February 1989. Al-Qaeda and its associated groups present Islam as an ideology that can defeat superpowers. With mosques and Islamic schools coming under the close surveillance of government security and intelligence agencies, al-Qaeda is disseminating its propaganda through a number of its websites.
Although the heavy bombing detected, disrupted and degraded the physical infrastructure of al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan, their fighting cadre is intact. The Muslim territorial and migrant communities from Australia to the Middle East and to Canada continue to provide recruits and finance. Al-Qaeda's survival will depend on the continuing appeal of its ideology and its ability to sustain a global support network.
In the virtual absence of counter-propaganda by the Western liberal anti-terrorist coalition, many Muslims view al-Qaeda's ideology as compatible to Islamic theology. To counter al-Qaeda's non-military capability and capacity, the anti-terrorist coalition needs both a strategic vision and tactical direction to counter the mobilisation of the "Muslim nation".
Today, the West has not adequately understood that it is fighting against a group which can reproduce itself and is therefore hard to defeat. Previously, Islamists relied on village, clan and tribal organisations based on traditional loyalties, and these organisations tended to fizzle out. By adapting existing models al-Qaeda has built an Islamist organisation full of vitality. Its politically clandestine structure is built on internationalism. Using techniques drawn from Leninism and operating on the Marxist militant model, al-Qaeda uses battle names , adheres strictly to a cell structure, follows the idea of a cadre party, maintains tight discipline, promotes self-sacrifice and reverence for leadership, and is guided by a program of action.
As long as al-Qaeda appears to be legitimate, influential and winning, its alliance - World Islamic Front for Jihad against Crusaders and Jews - against the anti-terrorist coalition will grow. To discredit al-Qaeda before Muslim eyes, the attraction of its ideology must be put out of fashion.
Colombian Paramilitary Group Disbands
By Juan Pablo Toro in the
Associated Press, July 19, 2002.
BOGOTA, Colombia (AP) - Colombia's brutal right-wing paramilitary organization has splintered after an internal dispute over individual units' involvement in drug trafficking, the group's founder said.
Carlos Castano, the founder of the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia, or AUC, said on the group's Web site that the loosely organized ``confederation'' had become impossible to sustain.
``We find ourselves with several groups that are scattered and highly involved in drug trafficking,'' said the statement signed by Castano and the group's military commander, Salvatore Mancuso.
``This disbanding will permit us to remake a national organization of self defense groups that truly serves a function in which all honest Colombians feel represented and defended.''
The two men said they would try to reorganize a national paramilitary group but, in the meantime, would continue leading the Peasants' Self-Defense Force of Cordoba and Uraba, or ACCU, the largest regional member of the former AUC.
The right-wing militias formed in the 1980s to fight rebel kidnappings.
The paramilitaries are known for their brutality in battling leftist rebels and regularly are blamed for massacring unarmed villagers they suspect of supporting rebels.
In 1997, the AUC was formally organized as a national group promising to fight rebels all over the country and stay out of drug trafficking.
But several units actively participated in the drug trade, even acknowledging their activities to reporters and justifying them by saying the rebels financed their fight with drugs.
Fueled by the drug profits and the government's failure to provide security in the countryside, the AUC expanded into an 8,000-strong nationwide force.
Last year, the U.S. State Department included the AUC on its list of international terrorists. It was not immediately clear how this latest development would affect that designation.
There has been evidence of divisions within the group since Castano stepped aside as commander in chief in June 2001. He continued managing the group's political affairs and periodically issued statements condemning the criminal activities of certain units.
Last week, Castano resigned as political leader of the group and announced that a prominent Venezuelan businessman kidnapped two years ago was being held by a rogue paramilitary unit in central Colombia. Richard Boulton was released Monday, apparently on Castano's orders.
Alfredo Rangel, a military analyst, said the AUC breakup reflects ``a reality that already existed'' because the various units largely were autonomous already.
He said the ACCU probably is trying to distance itself from the most extreme units in an effort to be included in future peace talks.
Some 3,500 people die every year in Colombia's 38-year civil war.
U.S. to Sell Pakistan Military Gear
Pauline Jelinek, writing for the Associated Press, July 19, 2002.
WASHINGTON -- The Bush administration is planning a sizable military sale to Pakistan as well as new aid for the country that has become a key partner in the war against terrorism.
The Pentagon deal would involve six cargo planes in what would be the first major military sale since sanctions were lifted last fall against Pakistan for its cooperation in the war against the al-Qaida network and Taliban in neighboring Afghanistan.
The U.S. Agency for International Development laid out plans Wednesday for an increased aid program intended to improve Pakistani education and health.
"Obviously, the United States is very interested in showing its support for Pakistan in every way it can," agency official Mark Ward said at a news conference in the heavily guarded American Center in Islamabad, the Pakistani capital.
"What it has done in the fight against terrorism is tremendous," he said.
The Defense Department on Tuesday gave Congress the required notification of the possible sale of six C-130 cargo planes and related equipment and services valued at up to $75 million.
"This proposed sale will contribute to the foreign policy and national security of the United States by helping to improve the security of a friendly country which has been and continues to be an important force for economic progress in South Asia," the Pentagon's Defense Security Cooperation Agency said.
Pakistan needs the planes to improve airlift capabilities both for the needs of its own air force and "as it seeks to support the U.S. government with Operation Enduring Freedom," the agency said in a statement, using the code name for the drive to oust al-Qaida from Afghanistan.
In recent years Pakistan has been under sanctions that barred U.S. economic and military assistance. The sanctions were lifted in September and October.
Though there have been some relatively small transfers of military spare parts since then, the proposed $75 million deal is the largest. Congressional notification is required for transfers valued at more than $14 million.
President Bush in September dropped economic and military sanctions against Pakistan and India after the countries tested nuclear weapons in 1998. In October, Congress removed the last remaining sanctions barring all foreign aid to Pakistan because of the 1999 military coup that brought President Pervez Musharraf to power.
Musharraf, a former supporter of the Taliban, sided with the United States after the Sept. 11 attacks. Pakistan has shared intelligence, allowed Americans to use several military bases for the war in Afghanistan and sent troops to try to block al-Qaida members from escaping from Afghanistan.
In doing so, he has drawn the wrath of violent Islamic extremists, who charge the government has bowed to the United States.
Among other rewards for Musharraf's cooperation was the rescheduling of $379 million in Pakistani debt.
USAID, meanwhile, is resuming its multimillion dollar assistance program in Pakistan.
The agency will give Pakistan $50 million in aid annually and hopes to raise the amount to $80 million by 2004, Ward said.
Much of the aid is set aside for improving quality and access to health and education services, while future efforts may be aimed at encouraging the growth of democracy.
At the State Department, spokesman Richard Boucher rejected a call by a top Indian official that Pakistan be placed on the department's list of state sponsors of terrorism.
The appeal was made by Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani, who cited the continuing attacks by Islamic militants in Kashmir.
Boucher said Pakistan has been an ally in the war on terrorism. He also said Musharraf has announced "some fairly bold measures" to put Pakistan on a fairly moderate course.
Coalition Forces Strike Iraqi Communication Facility
From CENTCOM, July 17, 2002.
MACDILL AFB, FL - In response to recent Iraqi hostile acts against Coalition aircraft monitoring the Southern No-Fly Zone, Operation SOUTHERN WATCH Coalition aircraft used precision-guided weapons today to strike a military cable repeater station in southern Iraq at approximately 5 p.m. EDT.
Target battle damage assessment is ongoing.
Coalition strikes in the No-Fly Zones are executed as a self-defense measure in response to Iraqi hostile threats and acts against Coalition forces and their aircraft. The last Coalition strike in the Southern No-Fly Zone was against a mobile radar unit associated with a mobile surface-to-air missile launcher on July 14, 2002.
Coalition aircraft never target civilian populations or infrastructure and go to painstaking lengths to avoid injury to civilians and damage to civilian facilities.
[Orbat.com note: According to AP Iraq said the missile strike killed five people, including a couple and their children. The claim could not be independently verified]
Return To Top July 21, 2002
July 20, 2002
Indian Army Raises Fiftieth CI Battalion for Kashmir
British Army Reorganization
South African Army Destructs
UK to recall reserves, cancels exercises
Debka.com Article on US Bases in Eritrea
Murder Gun Betrays Greek Terror Group after 27 Years July 19
Pakistan not to be tagged terrorist:US July 19
IRA uses Colombia to test new weapons July 18
US Bases in Eritrea July 18
Britains Secret Service rediscovers its military muscle July 18
Our Editor Kirill on the Hizbollah in Palestine July 17
Today's Update From Johann Price: Afghanistan, Hizbollah in the US and Iraq July 17
US Building PGM Stocks July 17
Indian Army Raises Fiftieth CI Battalion for Kashmir
Dave Sandhu writes to say the Indian Army has raised the 50th Rashtriya Rifles for the Kashmir counterinsurgency, in its continuing effort to get the Army out of the internal security business. The Rashtriya ["National"] Rifles is legally a paramilitary force, though in reality it is part and parcel of the army. Battalions are raised at the Army's regimental centers - the 50th belongs to the Kumaon Regiment - and remain affiliated with their regiment. They are organized differently from regular battalions, with six rifle companies instead of the regular four rifle and one weapons companies, and are larger.
In 1999, there were 36 battalions; after the Kargil war the Government decided to raise 30 more by 2004 with the aim of totally freeing up the army from CI, a job for which it is neither organized nor temperamentally suited.
The RR, as it is colloquially called, can be sent any where in India, but has come to be identified with the Kashmir insurgency, just as the Assam Rifles have come to be associated with the Northeast.
This emphasis on the RR is one reason the Indian Army has not added more divisions since 1984, and even after 1999, whereas Pakistan has added 8, including five after 1999.
Return To Top July 20, 2002
British Army Reorganization
Gordon A. MacKinlay writes to say the British Army is to be reorganized. Presently its main fighting strength is concentrated in two heavy divisions, one in Germany and one as a reinforcement, based in the UK. Now Britain seems to have enthusiastically embraced the medium brigade concept under implementation by the US Army. The division in Germany will remain heavy; the UK division will lose three MBT regiments to convert to medium configuration, and a new light division, probably incorporating the Commando and the Air Assault Brigades among other elements, will be formed in the UK. A major effort is to be put into giving commanders real-time intelligence. The British Army is prepared to look at some novel concepts for the medium division's AFVs; it has found existing available designs inadequate. All this follows what the US has been doing for some time.
Return To Top July 20, 2002
South African Army Destructs
Gordon A. MacKinlay also writes to tell us the South African Army is self-destructing. Reports speak of an HIV infection rate of up to 50%-60% in some units. The country could at best field an operational brigade of 3,000 from the 76,000 strong army, and has 4 medium tanks and 8 armored cars: the rest are sidelined for lack of spares. The Army now has one general for every 293 soldiers, compared to 1:2000 in the US Army. The US Army, is, of course structured to form a mobilization base, so in wartime the ratio will increase substantially. South African officials have heatedly denied the reports. One Defense Minister says the HIV infection rate is a maximum of 23%. [Your editor is doing his best not to comment on this defense minister.
Return To Top July 20, 2002
UK to recall reserves, cancels exercises
David Newton brings our attention to press reports that the British Government is planning to recall reserves to duty in September, and that British troops are being pulled out of planned exercises and peacekeeping/peacemaking operations. British troops from the NATO Rapid Reaction Corps are said to have been withdrawn from the RRC. Officially it is not conformed that the steps have anything to do with Iraq.
Coincidentally, the US press reports that the 1st Battalion, 131st Armor, an M-1 equipped Alabama National Guard unit, is being activated for 1-2 years of duty in support of Homeland Security. When asked what activity M-1 tanks might be used for, an official indicated he was not free to answer that question.
[Your editor is also doing his best here not to comment on the news reports. The official is saying only what he has been told to say. One National Guard brigade is already in Germany beefing up security of US installations. Units like 1-131 Armor could be directly deployed to the war zone or replace V Corps units deployed from Germany. Orbat.com's US National Guard specialist, Jim Milne, is off to watch birds in Cape Town, so unless our readers enlighten us we will have to wait for expert comments.]
Return To Top July 20, 2002
Debka.com Article on US Bases in Eritrea
We found the Debka.com article on US bases in Eritrea that reader Thomas Briody alerted us too: it was a matter of scrolling down far enough on their website, and the article is arranged right to left.
US Builds New Jumping off Base in Eritrea
13 July: America has secretly built a new central command center for its Iraq offensive in the Eritrean port of Assab. The new facility also houses jumping off bases for the US air force and navy. While way off the beaten track, Assab has the great advantage of being positioned strategically near the Bab el Mandeb Straits linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the mouth of Persian Gulf. The dusty streets of this East African corner have recently filled with white American vans dashing around without license plates but recognizable as military vehicles from their sprouting antennae. In Assab's harbor, docks and storage facilities have been renovated and closed off as a US military zone. Rooftop aerials and satellite dishes mark out a major US command post.
Just to the north of Assab, the Americans have whipped a small local airport into the largest air base in the Horn of Africa, partly compensating for the sophisticated Prince Sultan air force base denied them in Saudi Arabia. Its new, wide runways can cater to heavy bombers, transports and fighter-bombers taking off for missions against any target in southern Iraq or the Baghdad area with the help of in-air fuel feeds.
Still further to the north, another cluster of US air and naval bases has risen on the Dalak archipelago on the western side of the Red Sea, across from Saudi Arabia's Farasan Islands.
The US presence on Dalak gives it control of the full length of the Red Sea and the eastern approaches to the Suez Canal and the Sinai Peninsula, linking up with the American base at Sharm el Sheikh. From Dalak, the US air force reach extends to any point in Iraq - from Baghdad to the northern oil cities of Kirkuk and Mosul.
The largest concentration of US bases is located on the big island of Dalak Dist; some installations have gone up in the small eastern town of Deba Alawa and a town on the western side of the island of Jamil. In these locations, the US forces can avail themselves of Soviet port facilities, landing strips, headquarters and structures built there in the 1970s when the USSR maintained a large naval presence on the archipelago; later, the Israeli navy and air force used the sites as their forward base in the Red Sea.
Northern Iraq, including its oil cities, will be under the purview of US bases in southern Turkey and Tbilisi, Georgia. The new Red Sea bases, along with American aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean, will round off US coverage of all Iraqi airspace.
This blanket air control does not imply America's intention of placing the brunt of its offensive on air assault, on the pattern of the 1991 Gulf War and the Afghanistan campaign, where US air force planes dropped tons of ordnance, missiles and bunker-busting bombs. For the present, the plan is to employ the air force mainly as cover for American ground invasion forces, most of whom will be detached from US Oceania bases.
Our military sources describe the present plan as being for a US-UK force of up to 75,000 troops attacking in three synchronous bridgeheads. The overall strategy is for the US military to operate from inside Iraq - unlike the doctrine followed in Afghanistan, where the US army strikes from outside bases. A large contingent of engineering units is standing by in Kuwait and Qatar ready to move in and prepare Iraqi installations such as H-3, H-4 and the massive al-Baghdadi air base for the influx of US warplanes and troops.
Return To Top July 20, 2002
July 19, 2002
Murder Gun Betrays Greek Terror Group after 27 Years
Pakistan not to be tagged terrorist:US
IRA uses Colombia to test new weapons July 18
US Bases in Eritrea July 18
Britains Secret Service rediscovers its military muscle July 18
Our Editor Kirill on the Hizbollah in Palestine July 17
Today's Update From Johann Price: Afghanistan, Hizbollah in the US and Iraq July 17
US Building PGM Stocks July 17
Murder Gun Betrays Greek Terror Group after 27 Years
From Debka.com
The shadowy November 17 terrorist group that for 27 years eluded the Greek police has finally tripped up on a single mistake: It used the same 45-caliber gun for at least half dozen of the 23 political assassinations it committed from 1975. That gun was preserved and is now in the hands of Greece's anti-terrorist police, a lucky break in an investigation long believed hopeless, as Greece prepares to host the 2004 Olympic Games.
Hours after identifying the gun, the Greek police laid hands on the group's suspected leader. He is described in Greek newspapers as a 60-year old left wing professor, who taught at Paris University between 1967 and 1974 when the "Colonels Junta" ruled in Athens. The group took its name from the 1973 student uprising crushed by the army.
The academic is identified only by his nom de guerre of "Nikitas". He was apparently detained by an anti-terrorist squad on an Aegean island called Lipsi after boarding a hydrofoil for nearby Patmos. He is said to be married to a French woman. Another published detail: He painted his house pink instead of the mandatory white ruled in local by-laws.
Last month, the police arrested a 40-year-old artist, Savas Xyros, who was seriously hurt - critically, according to some reports - when a bomb he was planting in Piraeus, the port of Athens, exploded prematurely. He is apparently cooperating with prosecutors.
The 45-caliber gun police found beside him was identified as the weapon used in the murder of a Greek policeman in 1984 and six others.
At the artist's apartment in an upscale Athens neighborhood, police found a large weapons cache, including bombs and anti-tank missiles. They found second weapons cache in another Athens apartment some days later.
Most of the victims of November 17 were American, British and Turkish intelligence personnel and several key political and business figures in Greece. Richard Welch, the CIA chief in Athens, was the group's first victim in 1975; British defense attaché Stephen Saunders, gunned down on his way to work in June 2000, was the most recent.
The group's other victims include:
November 15, 1983 - U.S. military attaché George Tsantes shot six times in his car.
June 28, 1988 - U.S. naval attache in Athens Captain William Nordeen, killed by a remote-controlled bomb outside his home.
March 12, 1991 - U.S. air force sergeant Ronald Stewart, by a remote-controlled bomb, in protest against U.S. involvement in the Gulf War.
January 24, 1994 - Former Bank of Greece Governor Michalis Vranopoulos, gunned down with his driver-bodyguard in a central Athens street. The weapon is the group's signature gun.
May 28, 1997 - Ship owner Costis Peratikos, killed as he leaves his office in the port of Piraeus.
After each attack, the self-declared radical Marxist group announced it aspired to rid Greek of foreign - and especially US and British - capitalist interests.
But DEBKAfile's sources in veteran European anti-terror intelligence circles note that all the group's victims, including Greek business executives and financial figures, were directly linked to intelligence agencies, suggesting that the killings were "wet operations", or liquidations, rather than murders motivated by political ideology. A statement issued by the group after the murder of the British defense attaché two years ago underscores the point. It said Brigadier Saunders was killed because he helped to direct NATO's bombing of the Serbs in Yugoslavia in 1998. By revealing Saunders's secret role in the Kosovo war, November 17 signaled it was privy to precise data on the clandestine roles of its victims - information obtainable only by large, sophisticated and state-sponsored intelligence bodies.
For some time, the group was rumored to enjoy the protection in high-placed political circles in Athens. According to DEBKAfile's intelligence sources, the mystery is deeper.
The assassins never knew who sent them. Neither did the Greek authorities or the CIA and MI6, all of whom lost agents in November 17 assassinations. The prevailing theory among those sources is that the long-elusive group is backed by still-active intelligence entities under deep cover since they helped the the Soviet KGB infiltrate the US intelligence community, especially the CIA and FBI, at the height of the Cold War.
Both the FBI and the CIA are still trying to establish if the two spies for Moscow, the CIA's Aldrich Ames and the FBI's Robert Philip Hanssen, availed themselves of the operational services and capabilities of November 17 in their covert operations for the Russians. The urgency of that search has intensified in view of the possibility that November 17 operatives are linked to al Qaeda cells in Europe.
Getting to the bottom of this enigmatic web could lead to still-hidden channels of penetration of the CIA and FBI, channels that are now serving a new generation of spies and terrorist groups.Soviet KGB infiltrate the US intelligence community, especially the CIA and FBI, at the height of the Cold War.
Both the FBI and the CIA are still trying to establish if the two spies for Moscow, the CIA's Aldrich Ames and the FBI's Robert Philip Hanssen, availed themselves of the operational services and capabilities of November 17 in their covert operations for the Russians. The urgency of that search has intensified in view of the possibility that November 17 operatives are linked to al Qaeda cells in Europe.
Getting to the bottom of this enigmatic web could lead to still-hidden channels of penetration of the CIA and FBI, channels that are now serving a new generation of spies and terrorist groups.
Return To Top July 19, 2002
Pakistan not to be tagged terrorist:US
From the Daily Jang of Pakistan
WASHINGTON: The United States on Wednesday sidestepped India's call for Pakistan to be declared a terrorist state, instead praising President Pervez Musharraf as a firm ally in the US anti-terror campaign. With tensions again simmering in South Asia following the massacre of 28 Hindus in Indian Kashmir at the weekend, top Indian politicians have turned up the rhetorical heat on arch enemy Pakistan. Powerful Indian Deputy Prime Minister LK Advani argued in parliament that the international community must declare Pakistan a terrorist state if it fails to close training camps for Islamic militants in the part of Kashmir it controls.
Despite promptings by reporters, State Department spokesman Richard Boucher declined to directly address the demand, but dished out another dose of praise for Pakistan's role since the September 11 attacks. "As far as putting Pakistan on the terrorism list, just to point out again Pakistan has been a very stalwart ally in the fight against terrorism," he said.
"President Musharraf has announced some fairly bold measures within his own society to try to move Pakistan on a more moderate course, and our interest is in helping Pakistan move in that direction." Pakistan's intelligence services and radical Islamic elements within its society have been accused of fomenting an uprising in Indian Kashmir, and of backing the former Taliban rulers of Afghanistan, who harbored the al-Qaeda network of Osama bin Laden. Secretary of State Colin Powell is to travel to India and Pakistan before the end of this month, as part of a new wave of international diplomatic shuttles aimed at easing tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.
But Advani's words signalled that India is not yet satisfied with Pakistan's pledge to crack down on infiltration across the Line of Control dividing Indian and Pakistani Kashmir. "This is not just an issue of infiltration, this is an issue of the infrastructure of cross-border terrorism; and unless that infrastructure is wound up, (the international community must say) 'we will declare you a terrorist state,'"Advani told parliament. Boucher said US officials had determined that cross-border incursions had decreased since Musharraf pledged to halt them. But US officials say they are not in a position to say such infiltrations have stopped completely.
Return To Top July 19, 2002
July 18, 2002
IRA uses Colombia to test new weapons
Indian troops' weaknesses exposed: Musharraf
Morocco Wants Spanish Forces Out
US Bases in Eritrea
Britains Secret Service rediscovers its military muscle
Our Editor Kirill on the Hizbollah in Palestine July 17
Today's Update From Johann Price: Afghanistan, Hizbollah in the US and Iraq July 17
US Building PGM Stocks July 17
Arafat's Hizballah Deal Cooks His Goose
DEBKAfile Special Report July 16
SAS plan to blow up Saddam's germ sites July 13
European Terrorist Report - Far Left Extremist Groups July 12
IRA uses Colombia to test new weapons
Editor Johann Price forwards this article by Jerry Seper in the Washington Times of July 9, 2002. Though dated a week ago, we run it because, to quote Mr. Price: "[Orbat.com thought it was important to run this article in the light of the IRA's recent apology for all non-combatant deaths over the last 3 decades. Genuine or not the IRA has little in the way of remorse over accepting ransom and drug money from FARC, another out and out terrorist organisation. Perhaps this tie up was inevitable given the regular training assistance that 22 SAS has provided to Colombian units for more than a decade]
The Irish Republican Army, despite steadfastly denying involvement with Marxist rebels in Colombia, is using that South American country to develop new weapons that include advanced bombs, a newly released British intelligence report says.
"The PIRA have been using Colombia as a training ground to carry out tests with their engineering department as they are no longer able to use the Irish Republic due to the current political climate," the report said, referring to the Provisional IRA, the formal name of the IRA.
The report, made public by the British Broadcasting Corp., said IRA involvement in Colombia allowed the organization "free range to explore the new prototype of devices." Three IRA members - two of whom were members of the IRA's engineering department - have since been arrested in Colombia.
The three, James Monaghan, Neil Connolly and John McCauley, were arrested in August 2001 in Bogota and accused of training guerrillas of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, the nation's dominant Marxist rebel group.
Their trial is scheduled to begin this summer.
British intelligence officials said the IRA's move to Colombia marked an attempt to keep the organization - especially its engineering department - intact and functional in case Northern Ireland's peace process falters and fighting resumes.
Mr. Monaghan, 55, led the IRA's engineering department and has been identified by British authorities as the designer of the sophisticated Mark 1B long-range mortar known as the "barracks buster."
He is a former member of the Sinn Fein Executive Council and was convicted in 1971 for possession of explosives and served three years in prison.
Mr. McCauley, 38, is the former second-in-command of the IRA's engineering department. He is an expert in using and producing weapons and mortars and served two years in prison after his conviction in 1985 for the illegal possession of weapons.
Connolly, 36, also is a weapons expert and is believed to have first made contact with the FARC five years ago through ETA, the Basque terrorist group that specializes in bombings and assassinations of Spanish government officials..
The Washington Times reported last month that members of the FARC have met with more than a dozen IRA leaders during the past three years, including a confidant of Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams.
Colombian military and police officials, British intelligence officers and U.S. House investigators said the meetings were part of an effort by the FARC to upgrade its weaponry and escalate its ability to wage urban terrorism.
Among the IRA leaders believed to have been at the meetings was Padraig Wilson, 44, a convicted bomber and former commander of IRA inmates at the Maze prison, near Belfast.
Wilson, a longtime confidant of Mr. Adams, was freed in December 1999 after serving eight years of a 24-year sentence. His release came as part of the Belfast Agreement, an April 1998 initiative informally known as the Good Friday Accord, which was intended to bring peace to Northern Ireland.
He was sentenced to prison after British authorities caught him making a booby-trapped bomb. He is also a weapons and explosives specialist.
Since his release, Wilson has played a key public role in persuading IRA members to support the peace process. Last year, he was given temporary parole to attend with Mr. Adams a special meeting of Sinn Fein's ruling council in Dublin to discuss ratifying the Belfast Agreement.
But the sources say Wilson is believed to have been among as many as 15 IRA members who traveled to Colombia during the past three years to meet with FARC leaders, who have since escalated their terrorist campaign against the Colombian government.
A report by the General Command of the Colombian military forces said IRA members were escorted to FARC-controlled areas of the country to train the rebels in "terrorism, explosives and military tactics." The report said terrorist tactics used by the FARC "were taught by members of the IRA."
House investigators said the IRA was paid $2 million for members of its engineering department to teach the FARC how to build booby-trapped bombs and to produce a version of the IRA's "barracks buster" mortar.
Mr. Adams, president of Sinn Fein, a political party allied with the IRA, has denied involvement by the IRA in training FARC guerrillas. He recently told the Irish Times "with certainty" that the three men arrested in Colombia did not represent Sinn Fein and that he did not authorize them to be in Colombia in connection with the party.
In testimony last month before the House International Relations Committee, Gen. Fernando Tapias, chairman of Colombia's joint chiefs of staff, attributed an "onslaught of terrorist acts" during the past 18 months to IRA training.
Gen. Tapias, who said the bombings killed 400 police and military officers, told the committee that he did not know whether the IRA members were in Colombia at the order of the organization's leadership but that there was no doubt they had trained the FARC in using explosives and other weapons.
Return To Top July 18, 2002
Indian troops' weaknesses exposed: Musharraf
From the Daily Jang of Pakistan
ISLAMABAD: President General Pervez Musharraf on Tuesday urged for continuous and intensive peacetime training by the armed forces to maintain their qualitative edge over the adversary. He made this observation while attending the opening of the 10-day long war-game Sabit Qadam-II being held by the Pakistan Army.
General Musharraf said that by the grace of Almighty Allah the Pakistan armed forces had the capability to not only defend every inch of the motherland but also deliver a telling blow to anyone who dared to challenge the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country.
He stated that the defence of Pakistan drew its strength from the country's deterrence capability complemented by faith, patriotism, superior training and devotion to duty of all ranks of the armed forces. The president appreciated the concept, setting and layout of the war-game and stressed that it was vital for the military leaders to fully apply the lessons learnt and conclusions drawn in their respective formations.
The massing and deployment of Indian troops along the border has exposed certain vulnerabilities of the Indian Army, which were very useful in formulating various options. The process of preparation and training of various formations was now culminating in the war-game in which Pakistan Navy and Pakistan Air Force are also participating. The war game is designed to validate the existing plans of the armed forces and would contribute to the further enhancement of professional acumen of senior officers.
[Orbat.com note: We welcome any reader input on the size, nature and location of this tri-service field exercise]
Return To Top July 18, 2002
Morocco Wants Spanish Forces Out
RABAT, Morocco (AP) - Morocco demanded the immediate withdrawal of Spanish
forces from a tiny, disputed Mediterranean island, saying Wednesday that it was
an ``integral part'' of Moroccan territory.
Earlier Wednesday, Spanish forces evicted a unit of Moroccan soldiers from the
island, which Spain calls Perejil and Morocco calls Leila. Morocco said the
Spanish move was an act of aggression.
The standoff began last Thursday, when a security force of 12 Moroccans landed
on the soccer-field-sized island, set up tents and raised their national flag.
Morocco has said it aims to set up a surveillance post to fighting terrorism
and illegal immigrant trafficking in the area.
,br>
The island has belonged to Spain since 1668, but is claimed by Morocco. There
has been no Spanish presence on the island for the last 40 years.
Spanish forces removed six Moroccan soldiers from the island in a dawn
operation Wednesday. By midmorning, a dozen Spanish soldiers had taken up
defense positions along the island's periphery, as two soldiers patrolled the
island and five warships circled nearby waters.
Spain took action after consulting with the U.N. Security Council and the
country's allies, according to a statement from the office of Prime Minister
Jose Maria Aznar.
The six Moroccans were brought to Ceuta, a Spanish North African enclave three
miles from the island, and repatriated several hours later.
The Spanish moves came as a surprise, since government officials had repeatedly
said that they wanted a diplomatic solution to the crisis.
[Orbat.com note from Johann Price: It is entirely likely we will see some escalation here until the EU and US step in to calm things down. Journalists love to harp on 'ancient and deep seated feuds' every time a shot is fired - often with only the most tenuous of justifications. However in this case it would be entirely fair to say that this conflict began in 711 AD when Moorish armies swept across the Straits of Gibralter and in to the Iberian peninsula. The favour was returned when the Portugese took Ceuta, directly across the strait from Gibralter in 1415. ]
Return To Top July 18, 2002
US Bases in Eritrea
Alert reader Thomas Briody reminds us we forgot to publish a news item from Debka.com concerning the US setting bases in Eritrea. We had mentioned this in a recent update to Eritrea, and apologize for omitting it from the daily update: it is an important item, which unfortunately we cannot now locate on Debka. The below is from our update:
The Israeli net-weekly www.debka.com reported in its July 5, 2002 issue that the United States has taken over part of Assab naval base, upgraded an airfield at Assab to permit operation of bomber and long-range aircraft, and taken over several former Soviet facilities in the Dhalak Archipelago at Dhalak Dist, Deba Alawa, and Jamil Island. This is to replace Saudia and other Mideast bases for the alleged planned invasion of Iraq in 2003. If so, a major influx of equipment to all Eritrean services may be on its way. Other reports of bases negotiations come from the May 21, 2002 issue of http://www.messelna.com/Y2002/Q2/EnglishNews/News_May21.htm . [Also reported in May 22, 2002 issue of www.globalpolicy.org http://www.globalpolicy.org/wtc/targets/2002/0322somalia.htm ] Eritrea reportedly already hosts a US NSA base.
Return To Top July 18, 2002
Britains Secret Service rediscovers its military muscle
From our colleague Richard M. Bennett at RBMedia.
The British Secret Intelligence Service (SIS/MI6) has now gone someway to rebuilding its abilities to conduct genuine clandestine military operations. The Special Operations Department, although not yet as influential or independent as its predecessor the
SPA (Special Political Actions) Group whose operations were so severely curtailed by Dick White after he had been transferred to MI6 as the new 'C' in 1956 and indeed in the wake of the Suez crisis and the 'Buster' Crab affair, has nonetheless seen at least a two fold increase in both its staffing levels and budget since September 2001.
The SPA Group (or 'Jolly Fun Tricks Department' to insiders) was effectively a survivor from the subversion and sabotage activities of SOE when that organization was disbanded by the Atlee Government in 1946. Absorbed into SIS as the Special Operations Branch and answerable to the War Planning Directorate, the former SOE and Special Forces personnel who made up SPA soon gained a reputation for adventurous and somewhat risky operations within Soviet occupied Eastern Europe, Iran and later for its planned assassination of Egypt's President Nasser in 1956.
SPA was finally closed down by Maurice Oldfield in 1973-74 and its military role was passed to a small SAS-SBS force often known as 'The Increment', a specially picked group available to carry out intelligence or covert operations on behalf of MI6 in countries such as Afghanistan where they were to successfully recover high-tech Soviet equipment from battle-fields and the Mudjaheen guerrillas. In addition SIS has always been prepared to use the services of former Special Forces or indeed their own recently retired personnel as 'contract staff' for deniable and potentially politically embarrassing operations abroad. Unlike their sister organization MI5, some SIS officers are still regularly trained in the use of firearms and are at least partly aware of the techniques and complexities of clandestine warfare.
SIS never quite lost its taste for blood
SIS became involved in covert CIA operations in the Kurdish areas of Iraq following the Gulf War of 1991, however the abject failure of these activities were to disastrously set back plans to undermine Saddam Husseins regime for some years. SIS paramilitaries also carried out wide-spread operations in the Balkans tracking down suspected war criminals and according to dissident MI6 officer Richard Tomlinson planed to assassinate Yugoslavian President Milosovich, in one instant by using a powerful flash of light to blind the Presidents driver while travelling at speed through one of Geneva's motorway tunnels. Similar accusations have also surfaced from former MI5 officer David Shayler who argued that MI6 officers had been involved in a bungled attempt on the life of Libya's leader, Colonel Gadafy.
In the wake of the events of 9-11 however renewed interest and funding has allowed the SIS to expand its in-house military capability in the form of the Special Operations Department of the Operational Support Directorate which had been established in 1994 to support long-term and covert activities. The emphasis is being firmly put on weapons training, counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism techniques and with the experiences of the Afghan campaign and the overall War on Terrorism dominating future planning, this will eventually provide SIS with much needed teeth! Additional former personnel from the SAS, SBS, elite 14th Intelligence Company and 'bullet-catchers' from the RMP are being directly employed to further boost SIS capability. They join a number of highly experienced military officers who joined SIS when BRIXMIS was disbanded with the end of the Soviet threat in Europe.
'Robber Barons' and James Bond - are they really the future for the Secret Service?
SIS staff both in Britain and at overseas stations are under an increasing terrorist threat, particularly as many serving abroad were 'declared' to their host countries with the end of the Cold War. There is also greater need for physical security for SIS establishments including their highly visible headquarters at Vauxhall Cross, a category 'A' building which was already considered to be a HIS (Hostile Intelligence Service) and HTA (High Tech Attack) target, and now has an HPT (High Physical Threat) terrorist target status. The closure of much of the infrastructure of covert MI6 offices across London and the over-concentration of facilities at Vauxhall Cross may in the long run prove to have been a mistake made in the more optimistic atmosphere of the mid-1990's.
SIS is now embarking on rebuilding its past military capability and relearning many of its lost skills. It is already taking part in high risk and secretive operations in the Middle East including a second major attempt to destabilise the Baghdad regime, as an important partner for the CIA's Special Operations Division and in anticipation of a future military campaign to finally overthrow Saddam Hussein. Not surprisingly even the feint prospect of SIS returning to the old habits and activities of the 'Robber Barons', those swashbuckling loose-canons like George Kennedy Young and John Bruce-Lockhart who so disturbed their feint-hearted political masters of the time, has not been greeted with unalloyed joy in some quarters. It must be admitted that the chances of achieving measurable success against international terrorism by the combined forces of the CIA and SIS remain strictly limited, however it is also fair to remember that in common with many other aspects of intelligence, clandestine military activity or Special Forces operations in general tend to 'win in private and lose in public'
Return To Top July 18, 2002
July 17, 2002
Our Editor Kirill on the Hizbollah in Palestine
Today's Update From Johann Price: Afghanistan, Hizbollah in the US and Iraq
US Building PGM Stocks
Arafat's Hizballah Deal Cooks His Goose
DEBKAfile Special Report July 16
Shaikh Omar gets death in Pearl case July 16
Retrial may win Omar a new life July 16
News From Pakistan July 15
SAS plan to blow up Saddam's germ sites July 13
European Terrorist Report - Far Left Extremist Groups July 12
US Promises Iraq's Turkomans Autonomy July 10
Our Editor Kirill on the Hizbollah in Palestine
On the Debka article, most of it is true - there are Hizballah agents operating in Gaza and there were some (maybe still are) in the West bank, a couple of them were captured in Hebron. They very clearly enhanced the palestinian abilities, especially in bomb and mine making, many of the more sophisticated anti-tank mines and devices were "imported" into Gaza from Lebanon. What's more - and this is not mentioned in the article - a Hizballah spy in Israel relayed information to the palestinians on IDF movements in Gaza. Apart from their palestinian agents, two israeli citizens were arrested for spying for the Hizballah, one an arab and one a jew from Lebanon.
It's also true that the exchange talks with Hizballah have advanced lately. There is no evidence that there's a link, but it would be only logical.
However, I don't know if any of captured Hizballah operatives were turned over to the United States, and frankly I find it hard to believe - first, why would we give away our best chance to get back Tannenboum and the bodies of the 3 soldiers ? Second, the americans don't seem to be nearly as interested in Hizballah as we are.
Overall, a war with Hizballah is inevitable. There's no doubt about it on either side, and both Israel and Hizballah (and their masters in Iran/Syria) are preparing for it.
Return To Top July 17, 2002
Today's Update From Johann Price: Afghanistan, Hizbollah in the US and Iraq
Afghanistan From the Associated Press July 14, 2002
BAGRAM, Afghanistan - A U.S. convoy came under fire while traveling along a road linking this air base with the capital, Kabul, in the latest shooting involving American forces, U.S. officials said yesterday.
No one was injured in the shooting, which occurred before dusk Friday, Col. Robert King said. One tracer round was seen passing above the four-vehicle convoy, King said.
Tracer rounds, which are visible because they glow, are usually interspersed among other rounds, indicating that more bullets could have been fired.
"They're assuming it's hostile," King said. "There were no known friendly forces in the area."
King added there were no plans to increase security on the road, which runs through an area that was heavily mined during Afghanistan's 23 years of war.
Concern about security for U.S. troops has increased since July 1, when an American AC-130 gunship opened fire on several villages in Uruzgan province. Afghan officials said 48 civilians were killed, including 25 attending a wedding celebration. Another 117 people were wounded, the Afghans said.
The attack, which is under investigation, angered many Afghans because it followed a series of mistaken raids and friendly fire incidents, most of which occurred in the ethnic Pashtun areas of the south.
Investigators looking into the airstrike will start collecting evidence and testimony at the site this week, a U.S. officer said.
Chief investigator Brig. Gen. Anthony F. Przybyslawski arrived at Bagram Air Base late Friday with eight other investigators, King said. Two others are to arrive tomorrow, and the team will begin work within two days, he said.
The Afghan government has named Maj. Gen. Sher Mohammed Kareemi as an observer to the investigative team, which will include aviation, legal and medical experts.
Terror-cell alliance at work in US? Faye Bowers in the Christian Science Monitor, July 15, 2002.
WASHINGTON - Mohamad Hammoud had big business ideas and desperately wanted to stay in the US. But the government had denied the Lebanese national's visa request. So in 1996, he married an American girl in Detroit rather than the one waiting for him back home.
That enabled him to obtain his green card and later establish a multimillion-dollar cigarette-smuggling operation. From his profits, he sent money and equipment to the Hizbullah terrorist organization in Lebanon.
Last month, Mr. Hammoud was convicted of, among other things, financing suspected Hizbullah terrorists.
Although it was the first trial of this kind, the FBI reportedly believes at least 12 other Hizbullah cells in US cities are following a pattern similar to that of Hammoud's operation. More striking, US authorities believe that Hizbullah is increasingly linking up with Al Qaeda, the No. 1 target in the US war on terror. Their pooling of resources could pose the most formidable challenge yet to US security in the post-Sept. 11 world, US officials and terrorism experts say. "If I were Osama bin Laden and needed to fall back on a network, it would be Hizbullah," says Robert Baer, a former CIA officer who investigated the 1983 US Embassy and Marine barracks bombings in Beirut. "It is known that Hizbullah is very good at car-bombings, owns stinger missiles, is good at hijacking and putting operatives all over the world.
"We know there is tactical cooperation," which, Mr. Baer adds, "goes back - at least on some levels - to 1995-96. There is definite information that [Hizbullah] set up an alliance between pro-Iranian Shia groups and Al Qaeda in July 1996. There was a meeting with Iranian intelligence. And from that, it is only inevitable that these relations developed."
Baer says it's not clear what the cooperation level within the US is between Al Qaeda and Hizbullah. But terror experts and government officials say that in addition to the Al Qaeda sleeper cells in place here, several Hizbullah cells are also entrenched in US cities - especially those with strong Shia Muslim communities such as Detroit, Los Angeles, Boston, New York, and Kansas City. It would surprise no one in the intelligence community if the two were cooperating - helping particularly with logistics.
In fact, another Lebanese national, Semi Osman, was arrested in May in the Seattle area. And FBI officials there are looking into the same kind of cell operation as Hammoud's. Apparently Mr. Osman married a local Muslim, joined a well-known Seattle mosque where he became an imam, or prayer leader, and possibly operated a jihad training camp in Bly, Ore.
He's not been charged with acts of terrorism so far, but is being held on charges of immigration fraud and the illegal possession of a semiautomatic handgun with its serial numbers removed. The Los Angeles Times reported Saturday that he is suspected of leading a cell there that may have ties to Al Qaeda.
There are no clear-cut connections between Hizbullah and Al Qaeda in either of these cases. But the similarities in the way the cells operate are striking, and the suicide-bombing techniques used by both organizations are essentially the same.
Moreover, other evidence has pointed to Hizbullah-Al Qaeda collaborations. During the New York trial for those accused of the near-simultaneous 1998 attacks on two US embassies in Africa, Al Qaeda members testified about meetings between Mr. bin Laden and Imad Mugniyah, chief of Hizbullah's terror wing. And Israeli officials have charged that Al Qaeda fighters fleeing Afghanistan traveled through Iran to join up with Hizbullah in Lebanon.
The Hizbullah organization was spawned in 1985, in the aftermath of Israeli and Syrian invasions of Lebanon - after US peacekeepers were sent there to keep Lebanese Muslims apart from Israeli forces and their Christian allies.
Before that, on April 18, 1983, a suicide bomber who was a member of the group that later became Hizbullah drove a truck into the US Embassy in Beirut. Sixty-three people were killed, including 17 Americans. The CIA, according to Baer, lost its six best Middle East experts in that blast - the deadliest act of terror against the US at that point.
Then, on Oct. 23, 1983, two suicide bombers - also members of the precursor to Hizbullah - drove explosives-laden trucks into barracks of French soldiers and the US Marine barracks there. They killed 241 marines and prompted a hasty retreat by the Reagan administration.
The blasts were both so powerful - like the attacks on the US embassies in Africa and later the World Trade Center and Pentagon - that they left little evidence to sift through. But Baer was eventually able to tie Mr. Mugniyah, now the head of Hizbullah's terror wing and one of the most wanted terrorists in the world, to the Marine barracks bombing. Mugniah has also been implicated in the 1985 hijacking of TWA 847, in which a US Navy diver was killed, and the 1992 Israeli Embassy bombing in Argentina, in which 29 were killed.
From 1985 to May 1990, Hizbullah conducted a string of highly successful hit-and-run guerrilla attacks on the Israeli troops occupying southern Lebanon. Those became so effective, killing many Israeli soldiers, that Prime Minister Ehud Barak's government decided to pull out of the strip in May 2000.
Throughout the Arab world, that was seen as a major victory for the group. Also during that time, Hizbullah effectively formed a political arm, giving it a stronger foothold in the region. Hizbullah currently holds nine seats in Lebanon's parliament. James Kitfield writes in the National Journal that "asked whether they are with the United States or Hizbullah, the overwhelming majority of Arabs would choose the latter."
The US is interested in targeting the group in its "war on terror." US Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Bob Graham (D) of Florida called Hizbullah the "A-team of terrorists" early last week after returning from a trip to the Middle East.
The FBI's most-wanted terrorists list, released last October, includes three Hizbullah members. The rest are mainly Al Qaeda operatives. In November, the US State Department beefed up financial sanctions against the group.
[Orbat.com note: One of the reasons for US displeasure at Iran despite their assistance against the Taleban is the evidence of interaction on the tactical level between Hezb'allah and Al-Qaeda operatives in places such as South America and West Africa. Al Qaeda operatives received assistance in setting up compartmentalized logistical and financial networks in those areas. Bin Laden posters have been seen in Hezb'allah safe houses. It is also a matter of record that while at Tora Bora Bin Laden received three offers of sanctuary. One of them from Iraq, one from certain hardline clerics in Iran, and one from a regional organized crime syndicate.]
U.S. Planes Strike Radar Unit in Iraq Reported by agencies.
U.S. warplanes bombed a mobile radar unit linked to a surface-to-air missile launcher in Iraq on Sunday in a second consecutive day of strikes in the southern "no-fly" zone, the Pentagon said yesterday.
U.S. aircraft used precision-guided weapons to strike the radar unit in southern Iraq, the Defense Department said.
U.S. and British jets patrol no-fly zones in northern and southern Iraq set up by Western powers after the 1991 Persian Gulf War. The Iraqi government does not recognize the zones, which were imposed to protect minority populations -- Shiite Muslims in the south and a Kurdish enclave in the north -- from possible attack by Baghdad.
The latest strike came one day after U.S. warplanes bombed air defense facilities in the southern no-fly zone Saturday in the vicinity of An Nasiriyah, 150 miles southeast of Baghdad.
[Orbat.com note: Iraqi officials claimed that seven civilians were killed in the attack]
India withdraws three strike divisions?
Amitava Dutta tells us that there are reports , denied by the Indian Army, that it has withdrawn three strike divisions from the Pakistan border. At Orbat.com we believe the withdrawal has taken place: Indian mechanized forces have been in the field almost continuously since October 2001. The last time they were on alert for so long was a 4-5 month period in the winter of 1986-87, during the Brasstacks crisis. Had war broken out in March 1987 the mechanized forces would have been in serious trouble because of being worn out by the extended mobilization. The same is probably even more true today
Return To Top July 17, 2002
US Building PGM Stocks
At Orbat.com we had doubted any military action against Iraq was in prospect until US PGM stocks were rebuilt. Our feeling was this would take till end 2002. Apparently, despite a doubling of production, it will take until well into 2003. This article is from Military.com of July 16, 2002. [Excerpts]
About 9,000 new JDAMs have been built this year, compared with about 10,000 total by the end of last year. Analysts have estimated that more than half of the first 10,000 JDAMs were used in Afghanistan and even more would be needed for an attack on Iraq.
The military still has only a fraction of the 40,000 to 50,000 JDAMs it wants, said analyst John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org.
"They had obviously used up a significant fraction of what was on hand, and what was on hand a year ago was only a small fraction of what they want to have on hand," Pike said.
Precision weapons like JDAMs would be key to any attack on Iraq, since they would allow the United States to focus its firepower on Saddam's military infrastructure while minimizing civilian casualties. The accurate weapons also allow the same number of planes to hit more targets in less time.
Pike said one Navy admiral has credited the JDAM with increasing the lethality of an aircraft carrier fivefold.
"It's only when you start thinking about that quantum leap in air power lethality that it starts to become plausible that you could take military action against Iraq without having a massive, multi-month (troop) buildup like they had a decade ago," Pike said.
A Boeing Co. factory in St. Charles, Mo., assembles the JDAM kits, which fit over the tail of 1,000-pound or 2,000-pound "dumb" bombs to turn them into satellite-guided weapons.
Earlier this year, the factory added a second shift of workers to increase production from about 1,000 kits per month to 1,500, said Boeing spokesman Robert Algarotti. The company plans to boost production even further, to 2,000 per month by the end of the year and 2,800 per month by the middle of 2003.
Those rates would add another 20,000 or more JDAMs to the U.S. arsenal within a year and about 37,000 by the end of 2003. At the highest rate, Boeing could make enough JDAMs to fill out the 40,000 stockpile in about 14 months.
The United States has tens of thousands of laser-guided bombs on hand, so the need for them is not as critical. Still, up to several thousand have been used in Afghanistan and thousands would be used in any attack on Iraq.
Pike said the military had enough laser-guided bombs and must simply replace those used.
"With the JDAM, they didn't have nearly as much as they wanted and used up much of what they had," he said. "So they have to not only replace what was used but significantly increase the total number."
Return To Top July 17, 2002
July 16, 2002
Arafat's Hizballah Deal Cooks His Goose
DEBKAfile Special Report
Shaikh Omar gets death in Pearl case
Retrial may win Omar a new life
News From Pakistan July 15
SAS plan to blow up Saddam's germ sites July 13
European Terrorist Report - Far Left Extremist Groups July 12
Terrorism Fails To Produce US Terror In July July 11
US Promises Iraq's Turkomans Autonomy July 10
Arafat's Hizballah Deal Cooks His Goose
DEBKAfile Special Report
Another interesting story from Debka.com, and as usual we stamp the story with a big Caveat Emptor - unless some of our Israeli readers choose to enlighten us, we cannot say what the truth of the article is.
The dozens of Hizballah operatives, members of the notorious Imad Mughniyeh's security and intelligence networks, who have infiltrated the West Bank and Gaza Strip since late last year, significantly enhanced the capabilities of the Palestinian terrorist networks. They raised Palestinian organizational and training levels, contributed palpably to the unprecedented Palestinian suicide massacres of the second half of February and introduced extra-powerful explosives into the Palestinian arsenal, together with the techniques for using them.
Since Israel's Operation Defensive Shield in April, the Hizballah interlopers have been marked men. They proved exceptionally elusive. One of the prime objectives of the long siege at the Hebron government compound in mid-June was the capture of a senior Hizballah operative known to have been setting up terrorist networks in this West Bank city. The Lebanese terrorist was indeed apprehended before the building was blown up. His comrades were taken in or killed resisting detention in the Palestinian towns of Ramallah, Jenin, Nablus, Tulkarm, Qalqilya and Bethlehem in the course of Israel's current open-ended counter-terror offensive.
A similar operation is due in the Gaza Strip (as DEBKAfile has reported before), one of whose prime objectives will be to eradicate similar terror Hizballah cells operating in the territory's cities and refugee camps.
According to DEBKAfile's intelligence sources, Israel secretly handed over to the United States between three and five of the most senior Hizballah operatives netted in Palestinian areas, including the Hebron-based cell organizer. They were flown to a US-run interrogation center outside the United States. US terror investigators and intelligence officers have also sat in on Israeli interrogations of the Hizballah men. This is the first opportunity the Americans have had to access Mughniyeh-linked agents since the 1980s, when this wanted mass terrorist and hostage taker blew up US Marines HQ and embassy in Beirut, murdering hundreds of Americans.
The sharp downturn in Palestinian-Hizballah fortunes explains why Hizballah officials suddenly decided to announce negotiations for the release of the Israeli reserve colonel and businessman, Elhanan Tannenbaum, who was kidnapped in October 2000 shortly after the outbreak of the Israeli-Palestinian war. Mughniyeh ordered Hizbalah secretary-general Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah to make every effort to gain the release of his men from Israeli custody.
Proof was adduced from interrogating the Hizballah captives that Arafat had in return for weapons granted the Hizballah access to Palestinian-controlled areas and integrated its operatives in terrorist operations.
For Israel and the United States, it was the last straw. They decided that any more suicide assaults in Israel - and Arafat's bloody reign would have to end. He and his minions would be sent into exile. One possible destination: Sudan.
Return To Top July 16, 2002
Shaikh Omar gets death in Pearl case
An article by Ansar Naqvi & Anwer Kamal in the Daily Jang of Pakistan
HYDERABAD: The Anti-Terrorist Court, Hyderabad, here on Monday awarded death sentence to Ahmed Omar Saeed Shaikh, the prime accused and life terms to three co-accused, Salman Saqib, Fahad Nasim and Shaikh Muhammad Adil in the kidnapping and murder case of US journalist Daniel Pearl.
The court also fined each accused Rs 500,000. In default of payment the convicts will undergo an additional five years rigorous imprisonment. ATC Judge Syed Ali Ashraf Shah pronounced the judgment amid tight security arrangements in and outside the Central Prison, Hyderabad.
The judge directed the accused to jointly pay in equal share a sum of Rs 2 million, which if paid, would be given to Marianne Pearl, the widow of the deceased and his orphan son as compensation.
He said that the death sentence awarded to Shaikh Omar would be subject to confirmation by the Sindh High Court (SHC) for which a reference was separately being made to the SHC, while, the accused, at present in judicial custody, were remanded back to serve out their sentence so awarded.
The judge said that the absconding accused in this case had been allotted a separate case number, as SPL Case No 9/2002 by the administrative judge ATC, Karachi, therefore, on their arrest their case would be tried separately by the competent anti-terrorism court, Karachi as their case had been kept on dormant file.
Meanwhile, Sindh Advocate-General Raja Qureshi on Monday said he looked forward to the government instructions for filing an appeal for enhancement of the sentence awarded to three co-accused in Wall Street Journal reporter Denial Pearl kidnapping and murder case.
The advocate-general rejected the notion the trial was politically influenced, saying: "It was absolutely a fair trial without any political pressure. It was pure hardcore criminal trail, which was conducted," Qureshi said. In view of the overwhelming incriminating evidence the case stands proved against all the four accused, he said and added that the trial against absconding accused persons would be held separately when they would be arrested.
The advocate-general avoided a query that the verdict might lead to backlash among the militant. "That would be a political question, while I don't think it falls in my domain," he said.
Meanwhile, the defence lawyer Rai Bashir Ahmed expressed dissatisfaction over the judgment and alleged that the government dictated the verdict. He said he would appeal in the Sindh High Court against the verdict.
He said that he was not satisfied with the judgment on legal grounds because he possessed strong evidence. "There was no substantive piece of evidence against three accused. I invite all the legal personalities of the world to come and see how three accused are convicted on such a weak evidence," he added.
He alleged that it was a case of a US citizen for which the judgment was taken from the court under pressure. "The authorities tried to pressure judge Abdul Ghafoor Memon to get the desired judgment but he refused and then the case was shifted from Karachi to Hyderabad," he added.
He said the trial was fair and it was in accordance with law but the judgment was given under government pressure and it was not announced with an impartial mind. He said that when the president of Pakistan wanted capital punishment for Shaikh Omar nobody could stop the happening because he (the president) was the appointing authority of judges in Pakistan.
Return To Top July 16, 2002
Retrial may win Omar a new life
An article by Kamran Khan in the Daily Jang of Pakistan
KARACHI: Notwithstanding the death sentence to Omar Sheikh and life imprisonment to three other co-accused by an anti-terrorism court judge yesterday, senior legal experts and Sindh police officials still believed that an official confirmation about the arrest of three other persons -- directly involved in the kidnapping and subsequent murder of Daniel Pearl -- may prompt the appeal court to remand the case back to the trial court for a fresh trial.
Legal experts said that in case of new arrests and fresh evidence, the appeal court would direct the trial court to record the fresh evidence and re-try the case on the basis of supplementary challan (indictment), which would become necessary in case of any developments in the case.
Although Marriane Pearl, the widow of Daniel Pearl, was informed by the FBI on May 20 -- only a few days before the birth of Danny's son Adam -- that the dismembered body found from a remote farm house in Karachi was that of her husband, the fact was neither officially announced nor the trial court was told about the recovery of the victim's decapitated body, informed officials confirmed.
Soon after the recovery of the dismembered body, the US FBI agents had obtained samples and dental x-rays for the DNA and other related tests. The results of these are usually available within 72 hours.
"The discovery of Pearl's body and the arrest of new suspects in this connection are enough for the appeal court to order de novo (fresh) trial," commented Mrs Ismat Mehdi, a leading attorney for criminal cases in Karachi. "Whatever the circumstances such a crucial development in the case should have been brought before the trial court without delay whatsoever."
A ranking official source has disclosed that the decision not to disclose the arrest of new suspects, discovery of fresh evidence and recovery of Daniel Pearl's body till the completion of the trial was taken at a high-level meeting of senior Sindh police officials held at the residence of the home secretary Sindh late on May 16.
The meeting was called after the government was informed by its legal aides that an official confirmation about the arrest of new suspects and the discovery of the victim's body meant a new trial which may devastate prosecution's prospects in the case. "The new suspects came with the new story which didn't tally the police's investigation and their arrest had came at a time when the prosecution has already exposed its strategy and witnesses to the defendants," explained a police official while defending the government's decision to keep the trial court in the dark about this crucial development in the case.
He said: "The decision taken at this representative gathering of law enforcement officials was later formally approved by Sindh Governor Mohammadmian Soomro and the federal law secretary, besides the top military officials in the province."
An informed official said that in line with the decision taken by senior Pakistani investigators, the United States government and Mrs Pearl also agreed not to publicly announce the results of the DNA test or to claim Pearl's remains from the government of Pakistan until the trial court announces its verdict.
"How long can you hide the arrest of the two people who actually had taken part in the slaughtering of Daniel Pearl in that room of the Gulzare Hijri nursery," questioned a Sindh police official familiar with Daniel Pearl case investigation.
Fazal Karim, a Lashkar-e-Jhangvi activist and an accomplice Omar (not Omar Sheikh) were arrested during a combing operation launched by the CID wing of the Sindh police following Sheraton hotel terrorist bombing that had left 12 French naval engineers killed in May.
Subsequent interrogation of Fazal Karim and Omar unveiled their direct role in the kidnapping and slaying of Daniel Pearl. Senior police officials said that Fazal Karim, a native of Bahawalpur had held Danny's head while the three Yemenis slaughtered his neck. These people had led the police to the grave site inside the farm house.
Fazal Karim had also surrendered the actual compact disc version of the film showing Pearl's head being severed from his body.
What worried the top Sindh police investigators of the Pearl case was Fazal's statement about the names of the characters involved in the kidnapping and subsequent murder of Daniel Pearl. "Fazal's version was a lot different from the case presented by the prosecution in the trial court," said an official. "He was absolutely confident that neither Omar Sheikh nor any of the 10 accused mentioned in the Challan had participated in the actual kidnapping and murder of Daniel Pearl."
Fazal had also provided graphic details about Pearl's kidnapping from outside the Village Restaurant and had negated the police version about Omar Sheikh's presence on the scene and the brand and colour of the car used in the kidnapping.
According to a senior official, Fazal Karim told his interrogators that top Lashkar-e-Jhangvi militant Atta-ur-Rahman alias Naeem Bukhari was responsible for bringing the Yemenis for the murder of Daniel Pearl and for holding Pearl at the farm house for about a week before deciding to kill him.
"Two aborted attempts by Daniel Pearl to escape from the farm house forced Bukhari to take a quick decision about his fate," Fazal told his interrogators. Fazal's accomplice Omar also provided a similar picture about Pearl's kidnapping and murder, but he had also cited no role for the four suspects convicted yesterday.
While the lawyers for Omar Sheikh and three other religious militants prepare appeals for the Sindh High Court against the anti-terrorism court verdict in the Pearl case, the prosecutors and top Sindh police officials are examining various options to combine the two sets of arrests headed separately by Omar Sheikh and Naeem Bukhari to present a solid case that may earn conviction against all accused in the Pearl kidnapping cum murder case.
Return To Top July 16, 2002
July 15, 2002
News From Pakistan
SAS plan to blow up Saddam's germ sites July 13
Danish protest over plans for soldiers in turbans July 13
European Terrorist Report - Far Left Extremist Groups July 12
Terrorism Fails To Produce US Terror In July July 11
Indian Coast Guard and the Mystery Al Qaeda Ship July 11
US Promises Iraq's Turkomans Autonomy July 10
Opinion: US Bombing and the Afghans July 9
News From Pakistan
FBI, US military unite in Pakistan to hunt al-Qaeda:
US agents taking part in raids along with local authorities
From the Daily Jang of Pakistan.
ISLAMABAD: American law enforcement agencies have been working in tandem with the American military in Pakistan in an unusual and sustained effort to hunt down fighters of al-Qaeda who fled their sanctuaries in Afghanistan and are struggling to revive their group.
In Pakistani cities, agents of the Federal Bureau of Investigation are helping the local police and providing information - in rare instances even personnel - to break up what senior American intelligence and law enforcement officials regard as a depleted but still dangerous network.
In recent weeks, they say, that network has carried out deadly attacks against Westerners in Karachi and Islamabad. In the barren terrain along the Afghan border, elite American soldiers are using intelligence sent from American reconnaissance units in Afghanistan and high-tech surveillance overhead to track al-Qaeda fighters crossing into Pakistan.
The deployment, which includes intelligence officers, marks a shift in the Bush administration's anti-terror strategy. The new approach is driven by the recognition that after the American military successes in Afghanistan, al-Qaeda's centre of gravity has shifted east, first into the tribal areas of Pakistan, and then into its cities.
Al-Qaeda's movement presents American leaders with new problems, as these terrorists reach out to like-minded Pakistani militants and make extensive use of the Internet and cellphones in densely populated urban areas.
A glimpse into the future came last month, when a Pakistani group, apparently financed by al-Qaeda, carried out a deadly attack just outside the American Consulate in Karachi. "If you don't do anything, you simply risk allowing al-Qaeda to replicate the platform they had in Afghanistan," said a senior American government official, explaining the coordinated effort in Pakistan.
So far, the new strategy's biggest prize is Abu Zubaydah, who was shot and captured in Faisalabad in March. American law enforcement agents played a significant role in the raid that captured Abu Zubaydah, believed to be al-Qaeda's field commander; he has since provided American officials with intelligence on al-Qaeda's activities.
In Karachi and Lahore, Pakistani agents, with Americans in a frequent coordinating role, have detained more than 70 members suspected of belonging to al-Qaeda or other militant groups. In the semi-autonomous tribal areas, Pakistani units have small teams of American Special Forces soldiers embedded with their commanders, and these units have intercepted a number of al-Qaeda suspects. Local residents say more and more al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters are fleeing as the pressure increases.
"They thought that with the Americans and the Pakistan army here, they will be captured," said Jamaluddin, a former Taliban soldier who said he recently smuggled 60 al-Qaeda fighters out of Wana in the tribal areas of Pakistan and back into Afghanistan.
In the early months of this year, as an unknown number of al-Qaeda fighters fled Afghanistan, American and Pakistani commanders envisioned "hammer and anvil" operations in Pakistan. The Frontier Corps, capitalising on intelligence gathered by the US military, was to roust al-Qaeda fighters from hideouts in the tribal areas and push them across the Afghan border. But American and Pakistani commanders missed their chance. Along Pakistan's border with India, the crisis over Kashmir diverted Islamabad's attention, as well as many of its troops.
The al-Qaeda fighters used the time to make their escape. The number of al-Qaeda and Taliban forces in the tribal areas of Pakistan, estimated previously by American commanders at more than a thousand, shrank to "several hundred straddling the border", one American official said.
Pakistanis living in the tribal areas described a chaotic scene, with hundreds of al-Qaeda and Taliban members spilling across the border in search of refuge from their American pursuers. "A lot of people passed through here, hundreds of them," said Selab Mehsood, a journalist in Wana. "Most of the al-Qaeda did not stay here. They kept going, into the cities."
The presence of al-Qaeda in the cities has been confirmed by intercepts of cellphone, Internet and e-mail traffic. That accounts for the two-pronged strategy: the FBI to the cities, where they gather intelligence and coordinate communications for local raids, and American military forces to the border areas, where they are helping the Pakistanis find the last pockets of al-Qaeda there.
Senior Pakistani officials say FBI agents are taking part in raids with the local authorities. "They help us break down doors," a senior Pakistani law enforcement official said. "They go with Pakistani law enforcement when a raid is necessary, and they carry guns."
But senior American law enforcement officials said the FBI role was far more limited. At any one time, there are about a dozen bureau agents in Pakistan, they said. Primarily, their job is to turn over intelligence about terrorists to the Pakistanis.
So far, the commitment of US troops is relatively light, with no more than two dozen American Special Operations Forces working in the tribal areas, according to a senior Defence Department official.
Security Tightened for President Musharraf
From IRNA.
Security has been tightened for Pakistan
President Pervez Musharraf after his government crackdown against
extremist and sectarian groups, according to a Pakistani magazine.
"His movements are kept secret and his travel route is often
changed because of the growing fear of his meeting the fate of Anwar
Sadat, the Egyptian president who was assassinated after he made peace
with Israel," Newsline reported.
It said that after Musharraf's decision to crack down on
terrorism, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) told Kashmiri groups
to stop sending fighters into Indian-controlled Kashmir.
"We don't have a choice in the prevailing situation. There is
tremendous pressure on Pakistan," Newsline quoted an ISI officer as
having told the groups.
The decision did not go down well, the magazine reported.
The journal said Musharraf was sitting on the horns of a major
dilemma. "He sincerely wants to prevent a war (with India), but at the
same time would not like to be seen as a leader who gave up the
country's `sacred' cause in Kashmir," it said referring to the
current military standoff between the two countries.
"Musharraf is walking a very tight rope. There is a strong
feeling in the army that India is trying to humiliate us by dictating
terms for peace," said retired Lieutenant General Talat Masood,
referring to New Delhi's insistence that cross-border terrorism must
stop before any dialogue between the two countries.
The magazine said the military officers who stood by Musharraf
when he reversed the policy on Afghanistan by ditching the Taliban and
joining the US-led coalition against terrorism are not likely to
remain loyal to him if he makes a radical shift on Kashmir.
"There is a limit to which the army can go along on a policy of
using force against those who are seen as fighting for Pakistan's
interest in Kashmir," said Hamid Gul, a former ISI chief.
He accused Musharraf of "going too far in appeasing the West,"
and said, "By calling those attacking the Indian forces terrorists,
he is only echoing the Indian position."
[Can any reader explain to us why Lt.-General Hamid Gul [Retired] is being left free by the Pakistani authorities to mouth anti-Government propaganda every day? We've been waiting for the US and the Government of Pakistan to move against him any day; so far this doesn't seem to be happening. Editor.]
President Musharraf Seeks to Expand Control Over Military
This article, from the Daily Jang of Pakistan says, in effect, that till 1997 the President of Pakistan had the power to appoint the Chairmain JCS, and the Chiefs of the Army, Navy, and Air Force. Now President Musharraf wants that constitutional authority restored, and also the authority to appoint the next three senior officers, the Vice-Chiefs of the services. As Chief Executive he already has the defacto power; it would seem he is preparing for the day he becomes a civilian president.
ISLAMABAD: The second proposed constitutional package envisages seven top-ranking offices of Pakistan armed forces to be constitutionalised.
The package, released on Sunday, said that the president would appoint, in his discretion, chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC), chief of the army staff, chief of the naval staff, chief of the air staff, vice-chief of the army staff, vice-chief of the naval staff, and vice-chief of the air staff.
For all practical reasons, the tenure of the holders of these military chiefs has not been fixed. At present the appointment of services chiefs and CJCSC are made for three years. In the existing constitution, only the CJCSC, and three services chiefs are the constitutional offices of the Pakistan armed forces with the president as supreme commander of Pakistan armed forces. The president enjoyed the discretion of making appointments on CJCSC and three services chiefs until 1997 when through 13th Amendment this discretion was taken away.
Article 243(2c) says: "The president shall, subject to law, have powers to appoint the Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, the Chief of the Army Staff, the Chief of the Naval Staff, and the Chief of the Air Staff, and determine their salaries and allowances." Now, the president, if the proposal is through, will make appointments of CJCSC, three services chiefs and vice-chiefs.
At present, the offices of vice-chiefs are not mentioned in the constitution but the services chiefs can make that arrangement after the approval of the president. It would be a new experience in the armed forces to have permanent vice-chiefs, though their tenure is not yet fixed. It is, however, provided in the chapter "Constitutional Offices," that the holders of constitutional offices should generally serve for a single term of fixed duration with no extension permissible.
Return To Top July 15, 2002
July 13, 2002
SAS plan to blow up Saddam's germ sites
Danish protest over plans for soldiers in turbans
Successful Counter-Terrorism or A Desperate Effort to Stem a Tide Already Flooding the West? July 12
European Terrorist Report - Far Left Extremist Groups July 12
Terrorism Fails To Produce US Terror In July July 11
Indian Coast Guard and the Mystery Al Qaeda Ship July 11
US Promises Iraq's Turkomans Autonomy July 10
India installs Israeli gadgets to plug
Militant flow in held Kashmir July 10
Opinion: US Bombing and the Afghans July 9
SAS plan to blow up Saddam's germ sites
Forwarded by Gordon A. McKinlay with a note, an article by Michael Evans, the Defense Editor of the London Times July 12, 2002
[In regard to the statement below that an infantry battalion will take over the SAS
role is somewhat rubbish, it would a appear that the intention is that a
infantry battalion n will have the counter terrorist TAG role placed on it,
Organising itself to have a company (+) group trained as the "shooters",
with the remainder to perform the containment role, this a la Dutch marines
BBE unit. GAM]
Britain's special forces are to be used to sabotage Saddam Hussein's plants
making weapons of mass destruction in the planned invasion of Iraq next
year. The Army will also train special units of a new breed of "shock
troops" to serve alongside the SAS and the Royal Marines' Special Boat
Service to meet the extra demands on British Special Forces.
The idea is to train a selected infantry regiment alongside the SAS at
Hereford to perform the role for six months or a year and then to hand over
to another regiment.
Leaked Pentagon plans indicate that US military chiefs are plotting an
invasion of Iraq early next year, using five infantry and armoured divisions
and two US Marine Corps divisions.
Britain's special forces would also be key players, alongside the CIA and
other intelligence agencies, in helping to create a coup against the Iraqi
leader. Both the SAS and the Special Boat Service, both of which operated
with considerable success in the 1991 Gulf War, are likely to start training
for a possible return to the region.
A senior British military source said that while there was still no formal
request for troops for an Iraqi campaign from Washington "there is a general
expectation that we are going to be involved in a big event next year".
As part of prudent preparations, the Service chiefs are all engaged in
making sure that units, warships and combat aircraft which might be needed
for the second Iraqi campaign in 12 years are not going to be tied up
elsewhere in the world during the first months of next year.
Traditionally, the role of supporting the SAS and SBS in joint offensive
operations has fallen to The Parachute Regiment, as it did in the hostage
rescue mission in Sierra Leone in September 2000. More than 100 soldiers
from the 1st Battalion The Parachute Regiment provided back-up firepower, as
special forces troops rescued six British soldiers from the clutches of a
local rebel militia called the West Side Boys.
The Parachute Regiment has always been the first choice for supporting the
SAS in dangerous missions because so many SAS members come from the Paras.
However, Geoff Hoon, the Defence Secretary, has indicated his personal
desire to include other regiments in the Army for this type of
rapid-reaction role, and the results of a review into availability of troops
for high-intensity missions are to be published by the Ministry of Defence
in about two weeks.
The review, which has examined the new demands put upon the three Armed
Forces since September 11 terrorist attacks in the United States, also took
into account the type of operations in which Britain will be expected to
play a part in the next few years, such as Iraq.
British military sources said that despite the heavy commitments already
faced, the intention was to be ready to offer the US a "militarily
significant" force subject to Tony Blair winning parliamentary and Cabinet
approval for attacking Iraq.
Leaks in Washington indicate that the US expects Britain to provide 25,000
troops for a total land force of about 250,000 soldiers. British special
forces, as well as armoured and infantry units, would operate from Kuwait.
Return To Top July 13, 2002
Danish protest over plans for soldiers in turbans
Also forwarded by Gordon A. McKinlay, an article in the UK Telegraph, written by Julian Isherwood in Copenhagen, July 12, 2002. By itself the article is of no significance, but it's a small indicator of how much stress the West Europeans are under thanks to immigrantion and events post September 11, 2001.
Plans to let ethnic and religious minorities wear traditional clothes while
serving in Denmark's armed forces have provoked a row.
The controversy arose after the nation's defence staff said it was
considering a change in practices to allow for the ethnic and religious
requirements of its soldiers.
The Right-wing People's Party, a key part of the ruling coalition, was
outraged that Sikh turbans, Jewish skull caps and Islamic scarves would be
acceptable. A government target calls for 3.2 per cent of employees in
Danish public service to be of immigrant origin. Fewer than one per cent of
those serving in the armed forces are from immigrant groups.
"What is the defence staff thinking? Haven't they realised that the armed
forces, more than any other group, should be a 100 per cent loyal picture of
Danishness," said a People's Party spokesman, Peter Skaarup.
"Within Nato, Danish troops defend western interests as a whole," he added.
"It is a fact that those interests are founded in the Christian belief and
the Christian way of life. It would be very dangerous if we were in conflict
with the Muslim nations and there was a fifth column in our defence force
which had access to arsenals and knowledge of strategic planning."
He said that he had demanded that the defence staff immediately stop further
discussions on the issue.
Ulrik Kragh, defence spokesman for the ruling Liberal Party, agreed, saying:
"The idea of a uniform is that everyone is the same."
Svend Aage Jensby, the defence minister, said he supported the
recommendations, which might also extend to burial practices.
Any consideration given to religions, he said, "will be within the confines
of military law and practice.
"But it will also mean that ethnic immigrant employees are met with openness
and a respect for the values and norms which they bring to the armed
forces."
The Danish government is at pains to appear open towards immigrants and
integration after widespread criticism of its harsh new immigration
legislation.
The legislation is designed to stop non-European immigration and
asylum-seekers. The new laws allow only those non-Europeans who are over 24
to marry and move to Denmark. They extend from three years to seven years
the period required to achieve permanent residency and require a £5,000
deposit if non-Europeans wish to move to Denmark.
The military proposals are now to be sent to hearings in the various armed
forces committees before a final proposal is put forward.
But the government will try not to alienate the People's Party, because the
prime minister, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, would lose his majority without its
parliamentary support.
Return To Top July 13, 2002
July 12, 2002
Successful Counter-Terrorism or A Desperate Effort to Stem a Tide Already Flooding the West?
European Terrorist Report - Far Left Extremist Groups
Terrorism Fails To Produce US Terror In July July 11
Indian Coast Guard and the Mystery Al Qaeda Ship July 11
US Promises Iraq's Turkomans Autonomy July 10
India installs Israeli gadgets to plug
Militant flow in held Kashmir July 10
US steps into a potential Middle Eastern quagmire July 9
Opinion: US Bombing and the Afghans July 9
Letter from Babar Khan: Your Work Well Done July 8
Successful Counter-Terrorism or A Desperate Effort to Stem a Tide Already Flooding the West?
By Michael Crawford of MILNET, forwarded to us by RBMedia.
As worldwide efforts to gather up terrorists continue, officials are still biting their nails -- have they only been
scratching the surface or have the nipped important events in the bud?
European counter-intelligence teams have discovered the genesis of plans for the September 11 attack on the U.S. were
pulled together by Al Qaida cells from Europe, and through various meetings of these cells, the participants in the attacks,
and Al Qaida leadership. In fact, as we have learned, the U.S. CIA tracked, on occasion some of this activity.
Over the period since the attacks of September 11, the European counter-terrorism and International cooperatives in police
and intelligence have done a fantastic job of hunting down and capturing various financial and operations specialists for
the terror networks, at least sweeping the legs out from under a number of would be major attacks.
What worries U.S. and European counterparts alike is the possibility that they have only scratched the surface -- that they
have only grabbed the low hanging fruit from the terrorist tree, and that the major juicy fruit are still out there preparing for
another huge attack that will set new historical landmarks in the history of international terrorism.
The leading indicator that forces the officials to be so nervous are communications intercepts and movements of
individuals that so far have eluded capture or positive identification. Major players remain mysteries or somehow seem to
move from country to country without exposure until well after they have made their moves. Sometimes officials find
themselves one or more countries "behind" as they attempt to follow these illusive figures.
As the "normal" criminal element begins to make ties with Terrorists, both as customers or dealers in stolen goods or
drugs, the ability for terrorists to fund their operations is expanding from their previous channels -- religious and cultural
funds supplying the needy -- to more notorious and risky criminal channels -- sales of drugs and fencing of stolen goods.
And while the use of the common criminal element provides more opportunities for International Police cooperatives to
stumble upon and arrest those who would aid terrorists, the very closed mouth and secretive nature of major European
criminal elements simply adds to the problems already faced.
As AFI Research has reported, arrests in Morocco have clearly spelled out the Moroccan and Belgian links with additional
information from the Netherlands -- all pointing to major cells operating in Europe.
The concern then is how much and how effective have the European efforts been? Combined with U.S. concerns over
sleeper cells in the U.S., the fuel for anxiety is at an all time high for homeland security specialists in the U.S. and their
colleagues in Europe.
Of course wishful thinking would say that the efforts so far have been extremely successful and have eliminated all the
major threats, leaving a bombing in Algiers or a car bomb in Pakistan as the evidence that some smaller efforts are "getting
through the net".
Analysts believe otherwise, however. The quiet planners and unknown operatives number in the thousands if you
consider those trained and promoted from the Al Qaida camps in Afghanistan over the last five to ten years. Certainly
some have gone home to perhaps be contacted later with mixed results. However, many are either just waiting to be
contacted and made operative, or are actively planning now and pulling together the resources to conduct operations.
The question of course is whether the worldwide dragnet has the inside information and intelligence gathering capability
to interrupt these current "in the works" operations before they mature.
Thus the anxiety increases as time passes. The officials are literally waiting for "the other shoe to drop". Everyone hopes
for the best, and fears the worst.
With the insidious links spreading from Belgium, The Netherlands, Morocco and Algiers, into Yemen, Lebanon, and even
Chechnya, it almost seems hopeless to stop the disease. And the continued existence of the Wahhabi based anti-western
educational system worldwide, the propaganda and training continues to infect young minds of Arabs and others with the
cruel measures of the chorus of the Holy Jihad against Israel and her friends in the U.S. and Europe.
As the Saudis continue their duplicity in supporting their religious believes while purporting to be the friends of the U.S.,
and other Arab nations covertly fund the Palestinian terrorists in Israel and abroad, it is clear that even the formation of a
Palestinian State will not stop the violence. It is not even certain that event will lessen the violence. More on that
possibility later.
Return To Top July 12, 2002
European Terrorist Report - Far Left Extremist Groups
By NJV, a European security analyst based in the Netherlands. Forwarded by our friends at RBMedia.
In Italy investigators are in a race against time to unmask the New Red Brigades before they can kill again. If investigators fail to find and stop them, then the New Red Brigades will strike again and probably within a shorter period of time than the three years that elapsed between the murder of D'Antona (Adviser to Employment Minister Bassolino - killed in May 99) and that of Marco Biagi (Adviser to government on labour law working to change Article 18 - killed in March 2002). All the analyses seem to agree with this point, and some investigators go even as far as saying that the terrorists could strike again as early as this autumn. According to Interior Minister Scajola, the clash over Article 18 - regarding employment legislation - and the trade union rift are already foreshadowing new "tensions" and "radical behaviours." He made this announcement in parliament and it is likely that he also discussed the matter with [President of Italy Carlo Azeglio] Ciampi during one of his periodic talks at The Quirinale [The Italian President's office] as part of his agenda. Until now, the inquiries into the new BR [Red Brigades] have produced negligible results, yet we can safely presume that the terrorists are preparing new attacks...
In Spain a Renault Clio has exploded on 22 June in Santander [city on north coast. The explosion happened outside a multi-use building and did not cause injuries as the police had time to find the vehicle and cordon off the area. The same sources said that two calls were received at the Gara [radical Basque nationalist] newspaper and the DYA [roadside call-out association] warning that a car bomb was going to explode in Santander at 1450 [1250 GMT], although in the end the explosion happened five minutes earlier than the time given.
In Greece the authorities announced the identity of the culprit [the man suspected of being behind the bomb blast in Piraeus] and are currently proceeding with detailed investigations in an effort to find out possible associates. The man was identified as Savas Xiros from Thessaloniki and the authorities are carefully examining all evidence at their disposal. Some keys, a credit card and a phone card found near the area of the incident are being evaluated as very importance evidence for the investigation.
Savas Xiros is the name of the man responsible of the bomb explosion at the ticket offices of the Hellas Flying dolphins company*** in the port city of Piraeus. He is 40 years old, was born in Thessalonica, is living together with a girlfriend in Pallini of Attiki and has never had any dealings with the police. This information was issued by the local police force, which released a short press report on the culprit's identity. The counter-terrorism squad has been searching the houses of friends and relatives of Savas Xiros aiming to collect additional evidence on his activities. So far investigations focus on six special points:
1. The syndesmology of the two makeshift bombs has many common points with bombs placed by the Revolutionary Nuclei organization in the past.
2. The keys found near the point of explosion: According to information one of them belongs to a BMW car. Such a car was found a few hours after the explosion near the port of Piraeus with stolen license plates. According to other information, the license plates belong to a Ford car. Moreover, keys of houses were also found and these houses are currently under detailed investigation in the hope that they will lead to a hideout of terrorists.
3. The 38-millimetre revolver: According to police sources it has not been used in any terrorist attack in the past. According to another information, leaked this morning, the revolver belongs to a policeman. It might have been stolen.
4. The grenades: This kind of grenade has never been used by the Popular Resistance [Laiki Andistasi] organization or other smaller terrorist groups.
5. The mysterious couple: According to information, the couple that visited the 40-year-old man at Tzanion hospital asking to be informed about his health condition has been found and has already been asked to appear at the police headquarters.
6. A credit card and a phone card: The cards help the investigations very much. They give evidence on recent phone-calls and purchases made by the man.
So far there has been no important development regarding the man's health condition. The injured man has suffered injury at the face and the abdomen and has lost his right arm. The doctors believe that vision in both his eyes is seriously in danger.
***(FLYING DOLPHINS/SANTA CRUZ is owned by SHEIKH ABDULLAH BIN ZAYED BIN SAQR AL NAYHAN, one of the business partners of Victor BOUT, one of the biggest arms traffickers with interests in every conflict all over the world and a international arrest warrant has been issued against Victor Bout for his alleged dealings with the Taliban. A complete biography on Victor Bout is available on request from RBMedia)
Return To Top July 12, 2002
July 11, 2002
Terrorism Fails To Produce US Terror In July
Indian Coast Guard and the Mystery Al Qaeda Ship
US Promises Iraq's Turkomans Autonomy July 10
India installs Israeli gadgets to plug
Militant flow in held Kashmir July 10
US steps into a potential Middle Eastern quagmire July 9
Opinion: US Bombing and the Afghans July 9
Letter from Babar Khan: Your Work Well Done July 8
The European Terrorism Review JULY 2002 Part-Two
July 6
The European Terrorism Review JULY 2002 Part-One July 5
Terrorism Fails To Produce US Terror In July
By Michael Crawford of MILNET, a partner of RBMedia [formerly AFI].
As the month of July of 2002 approached, the U.S. Federal Bureau of
Investigation, prompted by the Office of Homeland Security and a "wealth of
credible but general threats", issued confidential warnings to police and
federal agencies all over the nation. Of most concern were U.S. Independence
Day celebrations across the nation.
However, only one event during the holiday period even remotely appeared to
be a terrorist attack -- a begrudged boyfriend's attack at the El Al counter
in the crowded Los Angeles airport terminal. Or so the FBI and LA Police have
deemed the attack. Israel, quite naturally, says it was most likely a
terrorist attack.
In any case, the massive fear producing attack did not come, thank god.
However, this does point out that regardless of their good intentions, the
U.S. government is continuing to do the terrorist's job for them, inciting
fear and indeed panic almost on a monthly basis.
Anyone who has studied terrorism will know that terrorists do tend to pick
important dates for attacks, but usually they are important to Arabs and Jews,
not Americans. September is not an important month to Americans but
extremely important to Arabs fighting the cause against Israel -- there is
even a terrorist group named for September -- Black September.
Big terrorist attacks against Israelis will tend to occur on special dates
to terrorists or Israelis -- for instance passover seems to be a big
favorite of Islamic terrorists.
Of course, looking at a calendar of Terrorist events over the decades since
1947, there don't appear to be many months that don't have some event a
terrorist could "hang his hat on".
No, unfortunately, we have to refute our own theory. There is probably some
nice Arab-Israeli event in July that could be used as the symbolic event for
an attack on U.S. interests.
Being super-hawks, we at MILNET would like the U.S. to get into this mode too.
For instance, we could have the annual September 11 attack on terrorists
worldwide. Budget and deliver tons of munitions on terrorist training camps,
financial centers, and hideouts. If we only could pinpoint them.
Or perhaps the U.S.S. Cole memorial attack. The Khobar Towers Memorial Response
or the First World Trade Center Memorial Devastation.
You see, the problem is that our, at times, faceless enemy doesn't really have
a place we can go to retaliate or celebrate destruction with destruction. And
we, of course, aren't really serious about this whole concept. We ARE the good
guys and we don't go indiscriminatingly bombing random targets for the short
feeling of satisfaction it might buy others.
Our enemies, however, aren't as nice -- their lack of morals is hidden in
Islamic rhetoric of the Jihad of course, so many in the Middle East feel like
they are on the side of right in this battle. And unfortunately, our
compassion for the suffering and poor have led many in the western world to
side with the peoples used as shields by the terrorists.
No one wants a Palestinian child to go hungry, grow up missing a parent, never
live in a nice home or attend a school that has not been shelled.
We are reminded however, that two attempts have been made to end it all with an
offer of a homeland for the Palestinians, a rather incredible result of
violent blackmail, that never-the-less could have ended it all. But clearly
that does not seem to be the goal of the leaders. And still the people suffer
and the kind hearted westerners rail at the Israelis and their U.S. supporters.
And so, to, will the violence in America continue. Just not last weekend.
Of course, there is still time left this summer and there is of course,
bloody September.
[We feel Mr. Crawford is being a wee bit unfair. Taking precautions against the possibility of terrorist attacks is simply good sense, and is not doing the terrorists work for them. Perhaps no attacks were planned and perhaps the US overreacted on July 4th. First, overreaction is normal considering recent events. Second, if something had happened, Mr. Crawford would have been among the first calling for blood - of the American national security agencies! Editor.]
Return To Top July 11, 2002
Indian Coast Guard and the Mystery Al Qaeda Ship
US Promises Iraq's Turkomans Autonomy July 10
India installs Israeli gadgets to plug
Militant flow in held Kashmir July 10
US steps into a potential Middle Eastern quagmire July 9
Opinion: US Bombing and the Afghans July 9
Letter from Babar Khan: Your Work Well Done July 8
The European Terrorism Review JULY 2002 Part-Two
July 6
The European Terrorism Review JULY 2002 Part-One July 5
We did not carry the news about the Indian Coast Guard finding an abandoned ship they thought might have had Al Qaeda on board because the report did not make sense. In case, however, our readers read about the report elsewhere, here's what happened next.
From the Times of India, a story by Rajit Pandit.
NEW DELHI: Two days after tom-tomming the discovery of an abandoned ''mystery'' ship whose crew with "al-Qaeda connections" had apparently vanished, the Coast Guard has been forced to admit that it goofed up.
Apart from the defence establishment's feverish imagination, the episode has revealed the bungling and lack of communication among different enforcement agencies.
The Coast Guard had claimed that the circumstances in which it intercepted the drifting Al-Murtada on the Arabian Sea were ''very suspicious and mysterious''. Saying it had no idea where the crew had vanished, the Coast Guard said the vessel was possibly used for arms smuggling, drug trafficking or transporting al-Qaeda terrorists.
It claimed to have seized two AK-47s with the words 'Allah' and 'Yusuf' helpfully inscribed on them. Later, officials also claimed the Lebanon-based vessel owner had said his ship had been taken over by Somali militiamen in January.
The facts, however, were very, very different.
On June 16, the Lebanese captain of the Al-Murtada sent an 'SOS' when his ship began listing some 700 miles west of Ratnagiri [Indian west coast]. The signal was picked up by another ship, Stolt Spray, which, with the help of helicopters from US aircraft carrier USS John F Kennedy, evacuated the 16 crew members.
After reaching Kandla on June 18, the two Lebanese, four Syrians and six Somalis among the Al-Murtada crew got a week from the Customs and police to arrange their travel documents.
The Somali and Lebanese embassies in Delhi, as also the Stolt Spray shipping agents J M Baxi & Co, assisted them in this and they left India by air from Mumbai before the June 25 deadline. There were also four Indians among the ship's crew who went their own way.
The Coast Guard, however, remained blissfully unaware of all this till Wednesday. ''The Kandla authorities should have given us information about Al-Murtada being abandoned and the crew being rescued,'' said Coast Guard director general Vice-Admiral O P Bansal.
The Coast Guard also admitted that the Lebanese owner's claim about his ship being captured by Somali militiamen was ''false''. ''A Canadian warship had boarded the vessel on March 6 and no sign of any militia was observed on board,'' said an official.
In addition to the two AK-47s which the Coast Guard claims to have found, Bansal said a further search of the vessel on Wednesday led to the discovery of three rifle magazines with 74 'live' rounds.
''I also talked to the owner on Wednesday...his English was very bad...he could not explain the presence of guns aboard his ship. We will talk to him when he arrives in India on Thursday night,'' he added.
Had over-enthusiastic Coast Guard officials not tried to make out an al-Qaeda link with the ''mystery'' ship, the goof up would have gone unnoticed. But with not just the Lebanese and Somali governments but also the US and Canadian military authorities aware of the exact sequence of events, an embarrassed Coast Guard was forced to retract its fanciful claims.
Return To Top July 11, 2002
July 10, 2002
US Promises Iraq's Turkomans Autonomy
India installs Israeli gadgets to plug
Militant flow in held Kashmir
US steps into a potential Middle Eastern quagmire July 9
Opinion: US Bombing and the Afghans July 9
A defence malaise that runs deep July 8
Letter from Babar Khan: Your Work Well Done July 8
The European Terrorism Review JULY 2002 Part-Two
July 6
The European Terrorism Review JULY 2002 Part-One July 5
US Promises Iraq's Turkomans Autonomy
From DebkaFile.com
US war planners have decided that their most useful strategic asset for the coming offensive against Saddam Hussein is the 2.5 million Turkomans of north and central Iraq - even more than the Kurds.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military and intelligence sources explain their reasoning:
1. The Turkomans control a vital strip separating Baghdad and central Iraq from its oil regions in the north. After the war is over, US strategic planners plan the establishment of Turkoman and Kurdish autonomous states in the north and a Shiite territory in the south to keep the federal regime in Baghdad chronically weak and ineffective. The oilfields will be left with the Turkomans and the Shiites. The Turkic-speaking Turkoman Strip is of exceptional geo-strategic importance, running as it does from the Turkish-Syrian borders in the northwest to the Iranian border southeast of Baghdad. It includes the oil cities of Kirkuk and Mosul, as well as Arbil - or Irbil, Diala, Salah-e-din and Altunkopru. The last is an island-town on the Little Zab River. There is also a large community in Baghdad.
2. At the end of May, Turkey came around to joining the US offensive against Iraq for compelling strategic reasons of its own. One, the eventual disseverance of Iraq will enfeeble Iraq and its military ally, Syria, both neighbors. Two, Ankara will gain control over the perennial Kurdish problem by holding Turkish military forces in the autonomous Turkoman region and so clamping the Kurdish regions between Turkey in the north and the Turkoman Strip in the south. Three, the Turks will gain a direct route to Baghdad for the first time since the Ottomans were thrown out in 1924.
Turkey now has special military units and military intelligence agents positioned in Turkoman towns, corresponding to the US presence in the Kurdish regions. They are training small Turkomen units in the arts of guerrilla warfare. The Turks and Turkomans will be able to cut the supply lines from Baghdad to the Iraqi forces positioned on the Turkish and Syria borders.
Turkish agents have also been planted in the Turkoman community in Baghdad. They are assigned to helping the American effort to undermine and subvert the Saddam regime from within, so reducing the need for large-scale military action.
The new name to watch for is Sapr Oketene, the US-Turkish choice of Turkoman national leader.
The forcible relocation of the Turkomen communities and their replacement by Arabs began in 1925 when the British first set up the Iraqi oil company in Kirkuk and Mosul. This policy of changing the demography of the oil rich sectors of Kirkuk by deporting ethnic Kurds and Turkomans is still going on, including seizure of their lands.
The "safe havens" created by the UN in 1991 after the Gulf War divided the Turkomans into two separate communities, part living above the 36th parallel which is dominated by the Kurds and part living below and dominated by the Iraqi regime. Since then, the largely Sunni Muslim ethno-linguistic Turkomans who ruled Baghdad from 833 to 1924 complains of ethnic cleansing by the dominant Kurds.
Return To Top July 10, 2002
India installs Israeli gadgets to plug
Militant flow in held Kashmir
From Pakistan's Daily Jang
OCCUPIED JAMMU: India has installed Israel-made thermal imagers on its mountainous borders with Pakistan to snoop on guerrillas sneaking into occupied Kashmir, officials said on Tuesday.
Israeli thermal imaging detectors are the precursor of an array of other military imports that would be deployed soon on the Line of Control (LoC), a highly-placed defence ministry source added in New Delhi.
In held Jammu, officials said Israeli imagers were deployed after extensive tests conducted with the gadgets in frontier districts of Poonch, Rajouri, Nowshera, RS Pura, Akhnoor, Uri, Kupwara and in Kargil and Drass. Each apparatus costs nearly Rs 2 million ($42,000) and can track body heat emissions, experts here said.
"The equipment is so sensitive that it clearly differentiates between human beings and animals," a military expert said, adding that the sensors have a range of up to five kilometres. "This is a successful (installation of) equipment to stop infiltration from across the border and recently the army killed six Pakistani militants on the basis of the data from the thermal imagers," the source said.
An Indian defence ministry spokesman in New Delhi told AFP that the imagers have been deployed at "sporadic" places along the 440-kilometre LoC. Defence officials here said Indian military researchers, too, were on the threshold of deploying locally-developed electronic radars on the contentious LoC, the site of bitter and often fierce artillery duels between the two rival armies. "A new version of sensors developed by the defence ministry research development department had been sent to army experts to conduct field trials," an official said.
Indian defence ministry has, however, said other imported electronic sensors are unlikely to be in place before elections in the disputed state in September/October this year. A proposal to deploy ground sensors to track infiltration into held Kashmir was made by US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld during a visit to New Delhi on June 12.
Despite India's closeness with the Arab world and the Palestinian people, New Delhi and Tel Aviv currently enjoy a close relationship based mainly on their common pledge to fight terrorism. India has also sought a full array of Israeli military equipment, including the Phalcon Airborne Early Warning and Surveillance System.
[This is the first time we have seen the use of the term "Occupied Kashmir". Normally the Pakistani press refers to Indian Kashmir as "Held Kashmir". India refers to Pakistan Kashmir as "Pakistan Occupied Kashmir". Till recently, India referred to infiltrators as militants. After September 11, 2001 and the US declaration of a war against terrorism, India has referred to them as terrorists. Editor]
Return To Top July 10, 2002
July 9, 2002
US steps into a potential Middle Eastern quagmire
Opinion: US Bombing and the Afghans
A defence malaise that runs deep July 8
Mrs. Bhutto and Mr. Nawaz Sharif Barred From Pakistan Elections July 8
Letter from Babar Khan: Your Work Well Done July 8
The European Terrorism Review JULY 2002 Part-Two
July 6
The European Terrorism Review JULY 2002 Part-One July 5
US steps into a potential Middle Eastern quagmire
Written by Zil, an Israeli analyst, for AFI Research
There appears to be a growing suspicion in the Middle East that the more hawkish elements in Washington and Jerusalem have decided upon a plan of action that will entail the deep involvement for the first time of the Israel Defence Forces as virtual mercenaries in future US large scale military action in the region. Further signs of this change in strategy are highlighted by the obvious sidelining of the leading moderates in both Governments, Colin Powell and Shimon Peres. The USA will use Israel to help destroy the axis of evil-Syria-Iraq-Iran and the first step will be Sharon's utter destruction with full US approval, of the Palestinian authority and a military clamp-down on both Gaza and the West Bank to prevent the Palestinian terrorists from opening a second front inside Israel when the long-delayed assault on Hizbollah bases in the Beka'a Valley in south-eastern Lebanon and its Syrian Army protectors gets underway. Many Pro-Israeli and pro-American Palestinians are already making moves to protect themselves, their families and assets from a potential Islamic backlash including moving to Jordan, the Gulf states or even Europe
Jordan, Egypt and other moderate Arab States have either had their acquiescence bought with vastly increased US aid or will be simply ignored as unimportant and enfeebled bystanders to the unfolding military events. While it is considered likely among Pentagon and State Department analysts that Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States will ultimately swallow their own feelings, crack down hard on internal protests and back the winners. At least that's the theory believed to be behind the US-Israeli plan. Iraq is to be dealt with by a multi--threat attack; from Turkey in the north, US forces from Kuwait and possibly Saudi Arabia in the south, internal revolt and possibly even an Israeli threat from the West, certainly in the air and possibly on the ground with a massive armoured thrust through southern Syria, untroubled by a Jordan prepared to abandon its previous pro-Iraqi stance.
Bush plans a region dominated by US and Israeli military power
The rationale behind this US masterplan for a new Middle East free from opposition to either Washington or General Sharon's military ambitions is that the time is opportune as the Muslim States are still fatally divided and that mutual hatred of each other will prevent any formation of a united front or effective military response. Washington may be right, history certainly doesn't suggest that the Arab Governments are anything other than disorganized, venal and untrustworthy. The US may indeed have a chance to not only remove unfriendly regimes, but also to establish an American controlled cordon of safety around the vital Middle Eastern oil resources and allow Israel to become the dominant military force in the region safe within the boundaries of an expanded security zone which would eventually become a de-facto 'Greater Israel'.
However, militant Islam is more than a few groups of Terrorists and disparate maverick regimes. It is an 'idea', a 'belief' that transcends political or military logic. It will not be defeated as the Arab Armed Forces undoubtedly could be by the combined military power of the US and Israel. The victory could however prove Pyrrhic and ultimately an unmitigated disaster for the Western Democracies. Israel can win many victories but could still eventually lose the war and the United States, perhaps under a wiser and more worldly Government than that presently controlling affairs in Washington will also undoubtedly have to come to terms with the Arab and Muslim worlds sooner or later. By then however, it will be a very different and much tougher opposition it will need to placate. By its wholehearted refusal to understand the Arab point of view and being wedded so closely to Israel, the United States risks a future of conflict with a thousand million Muslims. Osama Bin-Ladin and his colleagues have no greater friend for their cause than the present President of the United States while Washington's policies provide the ideal recruiting-sergeant for Islamic terrorism.
Return To Top July 9, 2002
Opinion: US Bombing and the Afghans
Ravi Rikhye
We have no difficulty at all believing the US version of events in the latest bombing crisis/fiasco. For one thing, after days of investigations, US troops have found only five graves, which makes one wonder about the 48 civilians the Afghans say were killed. We know by now the Afghan tribes consider extorting money from gullible foreigners a legitimate enterprise. With a sympathetic press at hand, this becomes a relatively easy matter.
People were indeed killed. The Taliban, however, would not be the first group to use civilians as cover to provoke retaliation, by the time retaliation comes the bad people are well out of the way, the innocent get slaughtered.
This said, we have a question of our American friends. Knowing that the Taliban and anti-American Afghans are out to generate incidents, why fall into such traps?
There is war and there is policing. The war in Afghanistan is over. Now Afghanistan is about policing. And here, the police have to accept a much higher level of risk.
Now, as anyone familiar with US law enforcement is going to point out, American police do not accept the higher level of risk. There is a reason visitors to the US are told by their hosts that if they run into the police, make no sudden moves, keep your hands well in sight, say nothing till spoken to etc. [If our readers' friends have NOT told them this, please treat this as your advice from a friend if you visit America.]
If the police refuse to accept risk, how much less inclined are the military. Americans will clearly tell you: "we don't like policing, we're not trained for policing, we like to smack the baddies down, after that its for you all to take care of things"; you all generally being the UN or the Europeans.
In other words, the Americans get to have the fun, and everyone else gets the lousy job of policing. There's a cartoon from Vietnam days embodying the American approach. This one was the unofficial badge/motto of the 17th Cavalry, and it shows a vulture sitting on a branch, eagerly leaning forward, saying "Patience my a--; I just want to kill something."
Nonetheless, our American friends are going to have to learn policing. One reason is that no one else has the resources do deploy in places like Afghanistan. Another simple equity. It's not fair that you get to have all the fun because you have the toys. We agree it's your game, and if the others don't like your rules, there's nothing they can do about it. Without getting all moral and weepy, however, we'd like to point out that in the best work environments everyone feels fairly treated and equally respected - the Americans hammer this very point in every aspect of their organizational life back home.
Mr. Karzai said something quite wise to his countrypersons the other day, on the lines of "a little more restraint about firing in the air, please?" If the Americans must show restraint, so must the locals. Mr. Karzai is doing his part. President Bush needs to do his.
By the way, not to muddy the water, but can we theoretically concede that's its possible someone was firing an anti-aircraft gun because of the wedding? Just the other day someone was firing a mortar at a Pakistani tribal wedding, with some dreadful results when one of the bombs landed right on the party. Everyone is letting go with AK-47s, when Johnny the Showoff, not a little the worse for the controlled substances he has been ingesting, jumps up and says: "You call that a bang? Let me show you a bang…" Admittedly not a smart thing to do when AC-130s, B-52s, and sundry heavily armed aircraft are loitering around…but then, surely we're not going to use the smarts displayed by the locals as a baseline to define the smarts that should be displayed by the US Air Force….
Return To Top July 9, 2002
July 8, 2002
A defence malaise that runs deep
Mrs. Bhutto and Mr. Nawaz Sharif Barred From Pakistan Elections
Letter from Babar Khan: Your Work Well Done
The European Terrorism Review JULY 2002 Part-Two
July 6
The European Terrorism Review JULY 2002 Part-One July 5
Letter to the Editor from Shawn Dudley July 4
Al Qaeda in Kashmir: Christian Science Monitor July 4
A defence malaise that runs deep
By Richard M. Bennett. To those who think Mr. Bennett spends too much of his time bashing America, the following is proof he is an Equal Opportunity Basher. Our readers don't see so much of his other side, because these days his news service as sent to analysis.orbat.com is focused more on America and the American market.
The present crop of rumours about deficiencies in the British Army's standard infantry rifle, the SA80 A2 merely highlights a serious and on-going problem with some of the equipment issued to Britain's defence forces. This is not the first time that the combat reliability of the SA80 has been called into question as soldiers had experienced jamming problems in extreme weather in the mid-1990's resulting in its temporary suspension from NATO's active weapons list in 1997. However reports, not denied by usually reliable defence sources have pointed to the weapon still being vulnerable to dust, sand and temperature extremes.
The suggestion being that the machined-parts have insufficient play to allow small particles to be cleared easily, however of more seriousness is the obvious conclusion that vital parts of the weapon jam with the expansion or contraction of its metal parts due to heat or cold. For an Army expected to operate from the Arctic North to the desert heat of the Middle East the SA80 therefore hardly comes upto the required standards of combat reliability. What makes matters worse still is that the reports of problems with the SA80 A2 in Afghanistan follows a £92million modification program designed to solve similar faults which had been exposed some 6-7 years ago.
Political parsimony undoubtedly costs lives
The lack of reliability of the SA80 is but one of a considerable number of publicly acknowledged and rumoured problems with military equipment in service with the British Armed Forces. Exercises held in Oman last year led to reports of the huge maintenance effort required to keep the Challenger-2 Main Battle Tank fully operational, while the Army has constantly been a generation behind in its battlefield communications following the severe over-runs experienced in the introduction of new equipment, the chronic problems with the lack of serviceability of the RAF's Tornado combat aircraft and even the embarrassment of a modern Destroyer packed with the most sophisticated electronics and sonar grounding on a rock off the Australian coast are just a few of the reported short-fall's in the reliability of the forces equipment.
Britain has traditionally had one of the best trained, motivated and effective armed forces in the world, but when it comes to weapons they have been constantly sold short by successive Governments of all political backgrounds. Rarely have the British fighting men been given either the best, the latest or even sufficient quantities of the weapons and equipment they need. Political parsimony has undoubtedly cost the lives of British service personnel in the past, while ill-judged overseas deployments such as the operations conducted by the Royal Marines in Afghanistan only serve to highlight the danger of a Government that bases its defence policy on political-expediency and a desperate need to impress its American allies, rather than on genuine military necessity.
Return To Top July 8, 2002
Mrs. Bhutto and Mr. Nawaz Sharif Barred From Pakistan Elections
Because we did not update yesterday, being a Sunday, we missed an interesting and quirky development in Pakistan. Under a new law passed by President Musharraf, no politician who has held the office of provincial Chief Minister or the office of Prime Minister of Pakistan twice can stand for either of these offices. The bar holds even if the politician did not complete her/his term. This makes it impossible for either Mrs. Bhutto or Mr. Nawaz Sharif to stand for elections when they are next held in Pakistan.
Returning Pakistan to democracy as soon as possible is a major part of the American plan to deal with the roots of the terror issue. At the same time, that Mrs. Bhutto in particular has been sucker-punched out of the ring may, for most of our readers, be a horribly dull and parochial issue. So rather than go into this matter in any detail, we'd prefer it if our interested and knowledgeable readers would weigh in with their own analyses.
Return To Top July 8, 2002
Letter from Babar Khan: Your Work Well Done
Your work and research is rather biased as if this site is RAW sponsored.
You continue getting material for propaganda against Pakistan. Any article by the press which contains false allegations and perceptions about Pakistan and Islam are highlighted in your web. I can only laugh it out. No where History of Kashmir has been highlighted. Perhaps lack of moral courage.
[Your editor explained to Mr. Khan that mostly we use Pakistani sources such as the Daily Jang and the Frontier Post, sometimes we use Iran's IRNA. We also use the Press Trust of India and the Times of India as sources. We can hardly avoid that, as our readers need to know what the Indians are doing vis-à-vis their continued threats to go to war.
We do carry articles from the US press that repeatedly slam Pakistan on this issue. Unfortunately, when the west thinks of Pakistan nowadays, it is solely because of the Pakistan-terror connection. Kashmir is an internal dispute of Pakistan and India and we cover it in anaylsis.orbat.com only because of the danger the dispute could explode into a wider war. Our entire coverage is subsumed under the rubric "America Goes To War". Maybe one day we can expand the focus of analysis.orbat.com, but we find that right now our readers are really not interested in what we think about Kashmir or Sierra Leone or Afghanistan except insofar as the matter relates to the war on terror.
In case anyone wonders, RAW stands for Research and Analysis Wing, India's equivalent of the CIA.
Regarding the history of Kashmir. Anyone can prove anything they want using history. To give one example: if we go by the Native American version of the history of North America, all except a few hundred thousand Native Americans with more than 50% native blood would have to pack up and go home from where we came. It's not very helpful, then, to talk about history anywhere. Your editor never invokes history to justify India's possession of Kashmir. He invokes only national security. It's all right there in his writings, if anyone can locate them.
We told Mr. Khan he was most welcome to send in clippings of his choice and we will publish them. We hear much too little from Pakistan viewpoint.]
Return To Top July 8, 2002
July 6, 2002
The European Terrorism Review JULY 2002 Part-Two
The European Terrorism Review JULY 2002 Part-One July 5
Letter to the Editor from Shawn Dudley July 4
Al Qaeda in Kashmir: Christian Science Monitor July 4
Comment from Kirill on Indian Complaints About Israeli Sensors in Kashmir July 3
A Pakistani Analysis of the US-Pakistan-India-Kashmir Equation July 1
Sensors in Kashmir June 29
Mechanics of a living bomb June 19
The "Buffer Zones" Myth June 19
The European Terrorism Review for July 2002 - Part Two
By NJV, Belgian correspondent for AFI, who forward this article to us.
During the month of June other significant facts pointed towards the Netherlands, and explicitly to Eindhoven as one of the Islamic fundamentalist bases in Western & Central Europe. Eindhoven is a small city in the proximity of the Belgian border (some 20 miles). The significance of Eindhoven became clear in a report of the Dutch secret service (BVD-Bijzondere veiligheids dienst) when they stated, "Islamic extremist networks in the Netherlands are recruiting and funding Moroccan youths for the jihad in Kashmir and other places". Eindhoven has been described as a fundamentalist hotbed and indeed a city that has been associated with several extremist Islamic causes in the past, although the mosque's spokesman officially distanced himself from the Al Qa'ida network and its leader Bin Laden.
The Dutch police arrested an Algerian in Eindhoven suspected of being involved in the killing of Ahmed Shah Massoud, the anti-Islamic leader of the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan. The man arrested, was later extradited to Belgium where authorities are investigating a passport fraud case (Massoud's killers had Belgian passports), and there were also links between one of the killers and the Belgian fundamentalist scene. Another suspected Algerian Al Qa'ida operative living in Eindhoven was arrested in May 2002. According to the same BVD report, Al Qa'ida networks play a big role in the Netherlands. There are indications that people linked to Bin Laden and the Taliban are trying to seek refuge in the Netherlands and other neighbouring European countries, the BVD annual report also claims.
Besides Eindhoven it is Amsterdam that is also playing an ever larger role. Amsterdam has been cited as an important city for Al Qa'ida operatives, alleged British-born shoe bomber Richard Reid and suicide pilot Marwan al-Shehhi both spent time in Amsterdam in 2001. According to the London Sunday Times, quoting sources close to British Intelligence, there is a link between Nizar Trabelsi, the Tunisian imprisoned in Belgium and Richard Reid. According to the Sunday Times it was Trabelsi who manufactured the explosive lined shoes used by Reid. However according to the public prosecutors office in Brussels there is no evidence that Trabelsi manufactured the shoes, but there is a link between the two. Trabelsi is also questioned about his role in a six and one half million Euros diamond theft at the Zaventem National airport in October 2000.
Nizar Trabelsi was already known for his activities tied to drugs and diamond trafficking and according to some sources a large sum of money was transferred to Afghanistan through him at a date close to the heist. On June 13 a series of searches in the Islamist milieus of the capital and surrounding municipalities took place. The five people questioned have already been released but they all belonged to the entourage of the El Hadouti brothers. The Belgian-Moroccan El Hadouti brothers, Abdelkrime and Fauzi, were already linked in the past to terrorism. Fauzi was the co manager of the "Nile" restaurant in Brussels where the police discovered a large quantity of sulphur and acetone. At the time of Trabelsi's arrest he was in the possession of a formula to make a bomb based on sulphur and acetone probably to be used against the US Embassy in Paris.
Belgium a major Al Qa'ida base
Furthermore, according to the Belgian daily newspaper "de Morgen" the Belgian/US airbase of Kleine Brogel figured on the list of targets after 11 September of terrorists surrounding Nizar Trabelsi. This airbase is located near the Belgian/Dutch border, only 20 miles from Eindhoven. This list points out that not only US targets in Southern Europe with close proximity to North Africa were targeted but also places in Western & Central Europe. This also points out that Trabelsi was a key figure in the European theatre for Al Qa'ida linking the Netherlands with Belgium and Spain, however as Trabelsi has been arrested by the Belgian services we have to assume that his role has been picked up by someone else and that the route is still intact basing this statement on the latest developments in Spain and Morocco. In 1988 the founding manifesto of the fighting Islamic group of Morocco (GICM) was found in Brussels along with fundamentalist literature pointed to a North African network involved with fundamentalism and calling for the re-islamisation of Morocco already existed in Europe. The bases for this network were located in Belgium, Italy, Denmark and Morocco.
According to a report of the Belgian parliaments Intelligence committee Belgium became a recruiting base and launch pad for future attacks across Europe and the Middle East. Apparently the Saudi backed Salafi movement has created some sort of religious 'state' within Belgium, operating their own 'Islamic police' to enforce Islamic rules and punish drug dealers, prostitutes and other culprits, but most likely also to get parts of the market in hands to gain funds for their actions. Racketeering and fundraising has been one of the major activities of these groups inside Belgium and other European countries in the past. The report said that most recruits are second and third generation immigrants, mainly with North African roots. Belgium has some 350.000 Muslims and several of the country's influential clerics have links of some sort with Al Qa'ida.
There is a concern that the recruits could become a "fifth column" that could be a serious security problem within Europe in the event of a future major Middle East conflict. This is of course not only the case in Belgium but in every European country that has a large community of immigrants. Belgium however is being used as a logistical base for fundamentalist groups like Al Qa'ida, the GIA, the Wahabi Tabligh, the GSPC, the Muslim brotherhood, etc… but also by left wing or nationalist groups such as ETA, GRAPO, and others. Belgium itself is probably not a major target as the terrorists have no wish to provoke the authorities, however with the declaration of Article 5 by NATO, NATO assets became a potential target as all US facilities in the country. The fact that Belgium has been figuring as a logistical support base is being highlighted by the fact that several arrested terrorists were travelling with forged or stolen Belgian passports. One of the killers of Gen. Shah Massoud, leader of the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan had Belgian documents. It is clear that especially the North African community (Tunisia, Morocco) has been figuring as middlemen for Al Qa'ida and other fundamentalist organizations.
The German authorities recently raided six apartments and a bookstore in Hamburg; these raids were based on the investigations of 8 persons. The persons charged have predominantly strong Muslim convictions and are suspected of having set up an organization in Hamburg based on aggressive militant Islamic fundamentalism. Apparently is this group also connected to Mohammad Ata and therefore also to the in Morocco arrested Muhammad Zammar.
Another base of support is located in Southern Europe in Italy; the Milan area is believed to be one of the major logistical bases of Al Qa'ida in Europe. Italy requested the extradition of Tarek Marouffi, a Belgian national of Tunisian origin for his role in the Milan scene and his possible role in the Strasbourg planned attack, another link highlighting the vast network of Al Qa'ida in Europe. Marouffi is also linked to the GIA, for which he received a 3-year suspended sentence in 1995. It still has to be proven that this old network has any connections with the newly discovered one operating from Spain but we can assume that links exist and existed before. Furthermore, the Italian police are investigating a dozen people suspected of planning a terrorist attack against the Basilica of San Petronio [the most important church] in Bologna, which contains a fresco showing [Islam's founder] Mohammad in hell. The men, Tunisians and Moroccans specialized in arms trafficking and trained to carry out terrorist actions, are close to Al Qa'ida. Ferdinando Pomarici, the head of the anti-terrorism department of the Milan public prosecutor's office, warned in an interview that the threat of Islamic acts of terrorism in Italy is increasingly realistic. He pointed out Lombardy [the region including Milan] as the base for these subversive activities.
Return To Top July 6, 2002
July 5, 2002
The European Terrorism Review JULY 2002 Part-One
Letter to the Editor from Shawn Dudley July 4
Pakistan says crackdown on al Qaeda bearing fruit July 4
Al Qaeda in Kashmir: Christian Science Monitor July 4
Comment from Kirill on Indian Complaints About Israeli Sensors in Kashmir July 3
A Pakistani Analysis of the US-Pakistan-India-Kashmir Equation July 1
Sensors in Kashmir June 29
Mechanics of a living bomb June 19
The "Buffer Zones" Myth June 19
The European Terrorism Review JULY 2002 Part-One
NJV is Belgian Correspondent for AFI Research, which kindly forwarded this article to us.
While the United States and its allies in the war against terror are focusing their efforts on the conflict in Afghanistan it becomes clearer every day that Europe has been figuring as a melting pot for Islamic fundamentalism. As it became clear that a large part of the 11 September attack was planned in Europe the Intelligence and security services in Europe started a crackdown on these groups and individuals, arresting several of them but it becomes also clear that the largest part of the organization is still intact. The logistic and supply routes are still operational, the flow of money and funds continuing (because of the trade in blood diamonds, drugs, and real estate), most of the sleepers undetected and the omnipresent possibility of an individual action executed by a "believer". In an interview, the spokesperson of Al Qa'ida, Aby Ghayth said that it is the duty of every Muslim to initiate attacks like the one in Djerba. This is a significant call to all fundamentalists irrespective of any connections to the Al Qa'ida network. In this issue of the European Terrorism Review we will try to point out several of the strategically important points of the organization throughout Europe as a possible indication of an increase of extreme left terrorist group actions. Another concerning fact is also the growing support of extreme right factions for the Palestinian cause in the Middle East; this is nothing new because in the past there were already well-maintained contacts between extreme right-wingers and leaders of Palestinian liberation movements.
Islamic fundamentalism - The Moroccan trail
The latest arrests in Morocco point out that there is clearly an intact Al Qa'ida structure within the country and the terrorists arrested in Morocco belong to the Maghreb/South Europe commando. So it is easy to assume that there are other commando's related to geographical area's within Europe. In the last week it became obvious that there is also a recruiting portion in the Netherlands linking the two area's (South and North Europe) through the arrested Nizar Trabelsi in Belgium.
The Moroccan territorial Surveillance Directorate (DST) dismantled an Al Qa'ida cell in May, dealing a severe blow to the organization and its operational possibilities in the Maghreb/Southern Europe area. Two leading members of the organization Abu Zubayr al Hilali and Muhammad Rabat Haydar al-Zammar were arrested during the operation in May. It became clear during the investigation that both of them attended a "summit" in Southern Spain (Costa del Sol) on the fifth of September, with the financial co-ordinator and military chief of Al Qa'ida in Europe, the Yemeni Ramzi Bin-al-Shibh and the person who most likely replaced the former military chief in Europe, Mohamed Bensakhria. Bensakhria was arrested in Alicante, Spain on 22 June 2001 and was considered the leader of the Meliano commando, which tried to attack the market place of Strasbourg. Allegedly the aim of this summit was to recruit arms and drugs traffickers for a dual assignment, to monitor the Saudi Royal family during their holidays in Spain and to monitor and prepare attacks on the US naval base in Rota (Southern Spain).
According to the US justice department it is the arrest of a great importance, it is believed that Abu Zubayr is the head of Al Qa'ida's cells and 'sleepers' in the Maghreb. The arrest of Zubayr may be an important one but it is hard to believe that only 'one' person would be the head of all cells and sleepers in the Maghreb if one takes into account the known organizational chart and strength of the Al Qa'ida organization. The strength of Al Qa'ida is the fact that the left hand doesn't know what the right one is doing and that one cell doesn't know about the existence of the other cells in the same area, it is also largely assumed that most of the sleepers got their orders before leaving Afghanistan. The heads of these cells have been given points of contact for financial and logistic support and they carry out their operations individually. With the isolation of the "Al Qa'ida Shura" in Afghanistan the operational control got lost a little but it seems clear that the organization is gaining control again in the European and North African arena. Zubayr is also a cousin of Yemeni terrorist Salah Hajir one of the leaders behind the "USS COLE" attack in October 2000.
Another significant fact of the arrests in Morocco is the arrest of Muhammad Zammar "the bear-al-dubb", 41, the alleged organizer of the Djerba attack. He used a base in Southern Spain to organize this attack. Zammar travelled several times before and after the 11 September to Spain, from Tangiers to Algecircas. Zammar, a German terrorist of Syrian origin is still wanted by the German authorities for terrorist conspiracy. Zammar apparently acted as the contact between fundamentalists in Germany, Spain, Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria and Saudi Arabia. According to a report of the French DGSE, President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia ordered the Tunisian authorities to conceal the fact that they arrested an Islamic fundamentalist commando of 12 people in the localities of Sfax and Zarsis, 10 days before the attack on Djerba.
The European connection - Southern Europe
According to a Spanish magazine Ramzi Bin Al Shibh flew from Hamburg to Barajas airport on the fifth of September and fled to Afghanistan via North Africa on September 9. Another Spanish report also points out that Al Qa'ida may be capable of carrying out attacks in Europe including the use of surface to air missiles.
It seems that the Al Qa'ida organization has now spread throughout Europe. Before Europe was only used for planning and logistical purposes but it seems now that they are planning to execute fresh attacks. The dismantled cell and the thwarted attack on Rota naval base points out that a new and violent network is operating in Europe with its centre of operations in Spain. Spain has been used in the past by Al Qa'ida operatives for travel and fundraising; the leader of the Meliano commando was arrested in Alicante Spain in June 2001 after he evaded arrest by the German authorities for his planned attacks on Strasbourg.
Zammar, arrested in Morocco, formed part of the same terrorist cell as Mohammad Ata, the Egyptian national who led the attacks against the WTC. Both had been members of the German cell of Al Qa'ida since 1997. Zammar, who according to Arab sources has travelled to Afghanistan on two occasions to carry out training courses, took part in a meeting of heads of Al Qa'ida cells in January 2000 in Malaysia, where the air attacks against the USA were planned.
Muhammad Haydar Zammar took charge of maintaining contact between the German cells and those on Spanish territory, after Mohammad Ata's death last 11 September. On his visit to Madrid, Zammar met Moroccans and Algerians to introduce them to some Saudi Arabian "brothers", who would later move to Morocco. Muhammad Haydar Zammar has many friends in Morocco and has a Moroccan wife. Leaving Madrid on 28 October 2001, a few weeks after the terrorist attacks in the USA, Zammar returned to Morocco accompanied by one of the Saudis arrested by police in Casablanca along with two others, Hilal Jabir Awad al-Asiri and Zuhayr Hilal Muhammad al-Saithi.
The Moroccan wives of two of the three Saudi Al Qa'ida members have also been arrested in Casablanca. The DST is convinced that the two women not only knew of their husband's terrorist plans, but belonged to the Al Qa'ida network too. A week ago, Italian police spoke for the first time of a woman occupying an important position in the organization's European terrorist network. The woman, who remains unidentified, must have spoken on several occasions to the Egyptian Abu-Saleh Es-Sayed, one of the organization's leaders. The disappearance of Es-Sayed, who could be in Pakistan, has prevented investigators from identifying the woman. The Moroccan cell's objective was to watch the Strait of Gibraltar and the movements of NATO military ships. Muhammad Haydar Zammar, meanwhile, disappeared. He is said to have been arrested in a third country and handed over to the USA. The group then received a visit from Jalib Sheij Mohammed the man that has taken control of Al Qa'ida's military operations after the arrest of Abu-Zubaydah, and the idea of attacking the NATO fleet with boat bombs was first raised.
Apparently the attack on the Naval base of Rota was planned during the Seville European summit of 21-22 June. This action was planned to demonstrate the operational capabilities of Al Qa'ida even when the war in Afghanistan is going on and more than 300 members of the organization are in jail. The most worrying information comes from Afghanistan, information indicating that the next attack may also come from the ground directed against commercial aircraft. Apparently, some 50 Stinger missiles, given to the Mujahideen by the CIA during the Soviet occupation have disappeared without a trace. European and American Intelligence services fear that some of these missiles have been shipped to Europe and the US, according to a Spanish weekly it is also believed that some have been handed over to the ETA, while others are presumably hidden in Spain although some sources also speak of Germany. A BND document speaks about the intention of Al Qa'ida to use this sort of weapons against passenger planes. In regards to this fact a terrorist group in Saudi Arabia tried to bring down a US plane less than a month ago, according to ABC news. The security services found a missile launcher buried near the main US base.
Al Qa'ida also changed its way of communications since September 11, they no longer use the telephone but the internet, messages are not sent by e-mail but hidden in pictures posted on websites. At the same time recruiting is going on where vast sums of money are used to attract young men and women from a poor social background under the cover of religious or charitable organizations. It is also believed that vast sums of money have been used to activate a dormant network in Europe focusing mainly on US interests on the continent. (Part Two tomorrow)
Return To Top July 5, 2002
July 4, 2002
Letter to the Editor from Shawn Dudley
Pakistan says crackdown on al Qaeda bearing fruit
Al Qaeda in Kashmir: Christian Science Monitor
Comment from Kirill on Indian Complaints About Israeli Sensors in Kashmir July 3
A Pakistani Analysis of the US-Pakistan-India-Kashmir Equation July 1
Sensors in Kashmir June 29
Al-Qaeda getting fresh arms, equipment: Rumsfeld June 28
Mechanics of a living bomb June 19
The "Buffer Zones" Myth June 19
Letter to the Editor from Shawn Dudley
Dear Editor:
I am an American and regarding your point that having India let go of
Kashmir is like having the 1861 United States let go of the Confederacy.
The results leaves an emasculated state that is vulnerable to enemies on
the continent, not to mention the lack of standing you get in allowing
others who bully and terrorize to have their way (inevitably this leads to
more separatism, and India's situation is far more precarious than the
USA's).
Of course, the entire raison d'etre of Pakistan is to have a Maximum Islamic
state, a place where they can "do it their way," under their own rules and
culture. The trouble is, in this day and age "doing it their way"
increasingly leads to jihad against non-Moslem peoples.
Francis Fukuyama is correct in that we've reached a sort of "end point" in
our political structure, at least for the time being, with the Classic
Liberal Republics, such as the USA, those in Western Europe, and a few in
East Asia (Japan, Korea, and Taiwan) as the example of what works in today's
world: economic liberalism, balanced government systems, with jurisprudence
and guarantees for individual liberty and choice, and a society where
largely people can do as they please and say as they please (but not totally
without responsiblities to the government), and are defended from threats abroad
by high-technology, highly proficient armed forces composed of
professionals.
If nation-states don't have societies like the above, or are not on the way
to getting them (like Russia or Latin America, for example), conflict
is inevitable, as these "controlling states" (and to me it makes no
difference if it's Mullahs in Pakistan, Princes in Saudi Arabia, Secret
Police in Iraq, or Commissars in China), basically cannot compete with the USA
and friends. Because reforming their own societies to compete would lead to
their own downfall from power, the only other logical course of action is
war.
The War's objective in this case is not so much to promote their own
society but to bring an end to ours, and that's a telling point. They have
such little faith in their own economy and society that the only way to
catch up with us is to slow us down.
For that reason, I've already accepted the fact that we're fighting World
War III currently, it's only getting started. If the US wins anywhere, it's
just another nail in the coffin of these Maximum control states and they
become more likely to fight just to keep from being absorbed. For that
reason, a conflict between Pakistan and India is inevitable, just as a
conflict between China and the US, for the same reasons. For our part, and
this goes for both India and the USA, we didn't prepare for war during
peace, and we are now reaping what we sowed earlier. God help us all.
Return To Top July 4, 2002
Pakistan says crackdown on al Qaeda bearing fruit
A story from the Press Trust of India, a wire service owned by the Indian Government, but which operates with a considerable degree of editorial independence.
Pakistan Wednesday said measures taken by the government to flush out al Qaeda and extremist elements have been successful, as security personnel killed four al Qaeda suspects and arrested a Sunni sectarian leader.
"This clearly indicates that the measures which were taken by the government during the last six to eight weeks to improve the law and order situation have started bearing fruit", Information Minister Nisar Memon told reporters here. His comments came after President Pervez Musharraf today held a meeting of the cabinet to review security measures after four al Qaeda suspects and two Pakistani soldiers as well as an intelligence official were killed in a gunbattle in Kohat town along the border with Afghanistan.
Leader of banned Sunni sectarian group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Akram Lahori, was also arrested by Pakistani police. The outfit was blamed for several bomb blasts including the recent attack on the US Consulate in Karachi. Lahori has denied any hand in the Consulate attack.
Interior Minister Moinuddin Haider, meanwhile, said the government had "credible information" that al Qaeda had financed the Consulate attack.
He also said the terror network was plotting more attacks in Pakistan to avenge the country's decision to join the anti-terror coalition.
Return To Top July 4, 2002
Al Qaeda in Kashmir: Christian Science Monitor
A story by Phillip Smucker. The story has been abbreviated.
TARSHING, KASHMIR - Nasir Ali, a wiry jeep driver, says Al Qaeda fighters from Afghanistan have arrived here in large numbers. He should know, he says, because he was the one who gave them a lift in from northern Pakistan after their escape from Afghanistan. Says Ali: "Hundreds have entered Kashmir in the last several months."
. Ali's account, and several others gathered this week, of how groups of Al Qaeda fighters have infiltrated Kashmir present a harrowing prospect for Washington. Strategic analysts have long warned that Osama bin Laden's Al Qaeda network is keen to exploit tensions between the two nuclear powers of India and Pakistan, whose governments both claim full rights to divided Kashmir.
A week-long investigation uncovered evidence that Al Qaeda and an array of militant affiliate groups are prospering inside Pakistani-controlled Kashmir, with the tacit approval of Pakistani intelligence. The evidence comes after recent statements by US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld that he had "seen indications that there are Al Qaeda operating near the [UN] Line of Control" that separates Indian and Pakistani Kashmir, but that he had no hard evidence on numbers or location. Senior officials in Pakistan called Mr. Rumsfeld's statements inaccurate and stressed that he had no real evidence. But the Pakistani military, which has begun to chase stray Al Qaeda elements in its tribal areas bordering Afghanistan, has been unwilling to crack down in Kashmir on Islamic militant groups that it has been pledging to eradicate since January.
Militants out in the open
Near the town of Astore, the gateway to northern Kashmir, sledgehammer blows echo across the steep valley walls as villagers break boulders and lay gravel for a new strategic road. Pakistani army engineers and villagers, drenched in perspiration and the light patter of early monsoon rains, look up as a shiny new jeep passes them with a bearded mullah smiling in the back seat. The vehicle bears a banner proclaiming the arrival in Kashmir of Harakat ul Mujahideen, an organization high on the US government's list of terrorist groups. The Pakistani government has banned the group, which has intimate ties to Al Qaeda and suffered heavy losses while fighting the Western antiterror coalition last year in Afghanistan. The group, which wants Kashmir to be ruled by strict Islamic law, lost 22 fighters in a single US airstrike last year in Kabul. After the deaths, senior officials in Peshawar said that they would avenge the killings and continue their holy war. The group now operates with impunity in this remote part of northern Kashmir.
Fighters for several like-minded Pakistani "jihad" groups stream up and down a road leading to the Line of Control near Kupwara [in Indian Kashmir -Editor]. Pakistan's guerrilla war to liberate Indian Kashmir has been largely delegated to an array of holy warriors. Critics say that this "privatization" of the war allows the Pakistani government to continue to support its interest in recapturing Kashmir while denying any official government responsibility for armed attacks inside Indian Kashmir.
Mohammad Muslim, the regional chief of Pakistan's powerful Interservices Intelligence (ISI) agency, says there are no Al Qaeda cells operating inside Kashmir. But he bitterly denounces what he calls the US government's "war against Islam.""The US government destroyed the World Trade Center so that it would have an excuse to destroy Afghanistan," he says, drinking tea in the office of the regional police chief, who nods in full agreement. "After that, the US military killed tens of thousands of women and children in Afghanistan.
"Bin Laden 'wrongly vilified'
The terse comments from the Pakistani official highlight long-standing Western concerns that Islamic radicals hold sway within the ISI, an agency that rose to prominence with CIA funding during the war against the Soviets in Afghanistan. Some of Musharraf's own intelligence officials, like Mr. Muslim, are now scoffing at the Pakistani president's professed new pro-Western, "anti-terrorist" stance here in Kashmir. Asked if he agreed that Al Qaeda was a terrorist group, Muslim chuckled and said that Osama bin Laden has been wrongly vilified through CIA-produced fake videos of him talking about the World Trade Center attack. He added: "We don't have to agree with Musharraf here. He is the leader of our country, but he is not an elected leader."
[Here we have an officer of the Pakistan Army openly telling an American journalist saying that he doesnt have to agree with his Commander-in-Chief. We wonder in how many armies a subordinate would even imagine he could get away with challenging his most senior general on the record. We personally feel Mr. Muslim has made a mistake in his arrogant belief in the ISI's supremacy. The United States is carefully identifying the power structure of the ISI in preparation for a clean-up. Editor.]
Return To Top July 4, 2002
July 3, 2003
Chinese weapon development - the next Great Leap Forward
India is shooting itself in the head on Kashmir
Comment from Kirill on Indian Complaints About Israeli Sensors in Kashmir July 2
Kupwara incident nails Pak claim on infiltration July 2
A Pakistani Analysis of the US-Pakistan-India-Kashmir Equation July 1
Sensors in Kashmir June 29
India to bolster air defense June 29
Mechanics of a living bomb June 19
The "Buffer Zones" Myth June 19
Chinese weapon development - the next Great Leap Forward
Richard M. Bennett, at our friends AFI.
China is now the worlds largest importer of armaments and a very large
proportion of those are of Russian origin. Traditionally much of China's
own production has been either direct copies of or at the very least heavily
influenced by Soviet designs. However not only is China now producing
many of the latest weapons systems with Moscow's encouragement,
indigenous designs are appearing in every greater quantities and quality,
though in one recent development the Luoyang Institute of Electro-Optical
Equipment or AVIC Research Institute Number 613 in Henan Province has
apparently made a quantum leap in Chinese capability by successfully
producing a copy of the secret fire-control software and systems integration
package for the advanced Sukhoi Su-27 fighter being manufactured under
licence in China following a $2.5 billion deal in 1996 at a rate of some 20-25
aircraft per year. An additional deal worth probably $3 billion was signed in
1999 involving the delivery of upto 80 Su-30MKK, a highly sophisticated
long-range strike-fighter version of the Su-27, from the Irkutsk plant and upto
250 under licence at the Shenyang production facility.
Russia had refused to supply China with the latest electronic package for
the Su-27 and Su-30MKK and the Russian FSB internal security service
had reportedly foiled several attempts by Chinese agents to illegally obtain
the equipment or details of the technology. Now however as an additional
highlight of the startling advances made in Beijing's military scientific and
technological capability, Chinese engineers have solved the problem of
providing the Peoples Air Force with near state-of-the-art technology.
This is not the only recent advance of note, for although the United States
stepped in to prevent its ally Israel from selling further highly potent air-to-air
missiles and radar systems to the Chinese, it appears likely that Beijing
managed to obtain certain highly valuable material and plans before
Washington enforced its embargo on Israel. Indeed certain aspects of
the Chinese rebuilding of Saddam Husseins shattered air defence systems
may owe more than a little to the technology gained by China's flirtation with
the Israeli arms industry.
China develops a genuine anti-Carrier capability
China has also made considerable advances in ship-to-ship missile
systems of particular importance for a possible amphibious attack on
Taiwan or in pursuing Beijings determination to challenge the United
States control of the sea lanes around China. China is actively pursuing
the production and further development of a range of potent systems
including the CSS-C-7 SADSACK,a medium ranged subsonic cruise missile
that can be employed as a ship or air launched system and has appeared
in a coast defence version as well; the CSS-C-8 SACCADE, a naval
land-attack and anti-ship cruise missile; and CSS-C-3 SEERSUCKER,
a medium range air-, ground- and ship-launched cruise missile which is
part of the on-going development program of the older CSS-C-2 SILKWORM.
The CSS-C-8(YJ-2/C802) in particular, now has an enhanced range of some
140 kms at a speed of 0.9 mach, carrying a warhead of 165-170 kg at just
5 metres above sea level in its final approach to its target.With a low radar
signature this weapon provides China with a viable anti-ship capability which
worries US Naval planners heavily reliant upon carrier battle groups.
Some observers have claimed that this weapon is in the same class as
HARPOON and if reports that it has a hit probability as high as 75% or
more, would undoubtedly make it potentially one the most effective naval
systems in the world today.
China is now very definitely in the forefront of military technology. It has cleverly
combined well chosen importation, with indigenous development and a
determined industrial and technological espionage campaign. Those in the
West, and particularly the United States who persist in downplaying both
China's capability and the inherent threat posed by Beijings long-term
intentions do so at great risk. China is not only enhancing its conventional
military power, its nuclear, chemical and biological warfare programs, and its
strategic missile capability, it also has developed an impressive space program
of satellite launching and cyber-warfare techniques that have been largely
ignored by the West. Have no doubt, China is or very soon will be a genuine
threat to US influence and force projection in much of Asia and while the
War on Terrorism continues to distract America, China is making a new
Great Leap forward in military power.
Return To Top July 3, 2002
India is shooting itself in the head on Kashmir
Ravi Rikhye
[This opinion has come out a bit different from what your editor wanted to write about yesterday.]
The Indian national security establishment is convinced it has put Pakistan in an impossible place on Kashmir, and is in a marvelously self-congratulatory mood. India knows full well that (a) Pakistan cannot stop infiltration across the 750 km Cease Fire Line, and (b) even if it militarily could, politically it can not. Since India says it can take no further steps to ease tension until Pakistan proves its bona fides - and since it is for India to say if it is satisfied or not - New Delhi comfortably sees a future in which it will have to make no concessions, while continuing to paint Pakistan as the source of evil in the subcontinent.
We should be clear that Pakistan does not want to stop infiltration. In case anyone has missed it - the K in Pakistan stands for Kashmir. For Pakistan to give up its claim to Kashmir is in essence to say that Pakistan itself has no right to exist. Because if a Muslim majority state can find a place in India, then why have an independent Pakistan to begin with?
The Indians, however, have committed the third of their Big Mistakes in the last 55 years, with their usual casual, half-baked nonchalant approach to their security. The first was to spurn America and embrace the Soviet Union in the years 1947-1990; the second was failing to take China seriously till it was too late; the third, which may turn out to be the biggest mistake of all, was to internationalize Kashmir.
Hold up, our Indian friends will say. Who says we have internationalized Kashmir? We are in control because as you yourself say, infiltration will not stop. No stoppage, no talks.
Actually, folks, we have internationalized Kashmir, and it probably happened after we woke from one of those 3-hour naps we are so famous for. We internationalized Kashmir the day we told the United States - another bit of brilliance for which we are still congratulating ourselves: "You say you are against terrorists. Pakistan is sponsoring terrorism in Kashmir. So you must stop Pakistan."
Some Indians are starting to see this for the mistake it is, and they are perceptive enough to see where this is leading. Most, however, are still delusional.
Let me ask my brethren one thing. What makes them think they US will want nothing for putting the brakes on Pakistan? Is Washington supposed to be so overcome by our awesome smarts in making the point about terrorism is terrorism that it will blindly rush all over South Asia knocking out terrorists, and then come panting to us for approval?
In case my friends in Delhi haven't got it, the US has already stated the price of its cooperation. It wants India to talk to Pakistan about Kashmir, and it wants a settlement of the issue once and for all.
My Indian friends will respond: "its you who don't get it, Ravi. No stoppage of terrorism, no discussion. We have to give up nothing. Meantime the US is out there sitting on Pakistan, and that can only help us."
Here's the problem, folks. You're assuming that the Indian viewpoint is the US viewpoint. The US has never said that terrorism must be stopped before India must talk. If we know stopping terrorism is impractical, the US knows it too, and is its not about to predicate its entire South Asia policy on something unattainable. It wants verifiable progress from Pakistan, that's all. Further, you're assuming the US buys our side of the story with regard to Kashmir. Sorry about that - the US does not buy our story. It feels Pakistan has some rather strong points in its favor on the issue. That's why it wants India and Pakistan to talk about.
And what exactly is it we are supposed to talk about? The Pakistanis say there is only one issue: allowing the people of Kashmir to decide their future democratically.
Now this talk drives Indians quite crazy, understandably, because Pakistan allows its part of Kashmir no rights at all. Moreover, its given away about a fifth or a sixth of the state to China, and incorporated about one-third directly into Pakistan. There is not going to be any vote in about half of the state. Still further, Pakistan will insist that the state must vote as a whole, and since Muslims outnumber Hindus, Sikhs, Shia Muslims, and Buddhists put together, we don't have to guess that once again the minority is going to get the short end of the stick, as has happened both in East and West Pakistan after 1947.
But whereas these are critical issues from the Indian point of view, they are points of detail for the US. Washington wants us to get talking, period. It figures if we are talking, we are not fighting. None of the above is going to stop Washington from forcing us to the negotiating table, whine and complain as we might.
In itself that might not be a bad thing. Except for two very big traps the Pakistanis are preparing for us.
The first thing the Pakistanis are going to say is, let the people of Kashmir decide if they want to go to India, come to Pakistan, or be independent. We know this is just a negotiating ploy because Pakistan does not want an independent Kashmir any more than we do. But it's a negotiating ploy that will carry great force with the post Yugoslavia world. And we do know that if independence as a US protectorate is an option, the Kashmiris are going to jump at that.
The second thing Pakistan is going to say is, no fair vote is possible with 750,000 Indian troops in Kashmir. We've been into that at analysis.orbat.com, and we've seen the actual numbers are much lower. Still, from a neutral point of view, who is to say the Pakistanis don't have a point, and lets not quibble about if the number is 400 or 500 or 750 thousand?
Where is all this going to leave us? Up the creek without a paddle, in fact, without a boat.
Oh yes, lets not now start on how the US can't pressure us. The US can, it is, and it will continue to. We haven't seen anything yet. The US is simply putting a toe in the water right now: that's why its behaving so politely to both India and Pakistan.
We are going to very much regret the day we involved the US in Kashmir.
Meantime, I hope my American readers don't fall into the trap of asking: "well, if the Kashmiris want independence, why shouldn't they have it?". If my American friends will explain why their southern states couldn't have their own country in 1861, I'll be glad to explain why Kashmiris shouldn't have theirs.
Return To Top July 3, 2002
July 2, 2002
Comment from Kirill on Indian Complaints About Israeli Sensors in Kashmir
Kupwara incident nails Pak claim on infiltration
A Pakistani Analysis of the US-Pakistan-India-Kashmir Equation July 1
Sensors in Kashmir June 29
India to bolster air defense June 29
Al-Qaeda getting fresh arms, equipment: Rumsfeld June 28
News of the Weird: "Psychological Warfare" - an article from Arabnews.com June 25
Mechanics of a living bomb June 19
The "Buffer Zones" Myth June 19
Comment from Kirill on Indian Complaints About Israeli Sensors in Kashmir
Kirill is an editor at analysis.orbat.com and a contributor to Orbat.com. His webpage is at Waronline.org
About the sensors in Kashmir… if you remember our The "Buffer Zones" Myth article there's a description there of how the standard Israeli fence is supposed to work. You'll see that there's not just the sensor fence, but a bunch of other things as well, including observation systems and a "dead zone".
It says in the article "BSF reacted to alarms trigged off by waving vegetation or animals" … what vegetation? The first and foremost thing about any separation zone is to create a space cleared of ANY vegetation, including tall grass. Not only because it can trigger the sensors, but mainly because it provides cover for infiltrators, it's much easier and faster to track them on open ground. This is the most basic thing about any fence or anti-infiltration zone, sensors or no sensors - pretty much since Roman times.
Also, there's no mention of other systems besides the sensor fence. That is also obviously wrong.
About the Arrow and Ofek - the Arrow-2 system was officially commissioned into service with the IDF on 14/03/2000, and the first combat-ready battery was deployed on 16/10/2000, so it is in fact already developed and fully operational.
The Ofek satellite that was successfully launched into orbit on may 28th was Ofek 5 - meaning the fifth satellite of the Ofek series to be put into orbit. I'd say it's a pretty good indication that it's also already developed…
Return To Top July 2, 2002
Kupwara incident nails Pak claim on infiltration
Tomorrow we will have an opinion piece discussing why a complete stop to Pakistani-supported infiltration in Kashmir is actually not in India's interest.
This article is from the Times of India
NEW DELHI: Scoffing at Islamabad's claim that infiltration across the Line of Control in J&K has come to a complete halt, the Army says militants are still trying to sneak into India under the cover of Pakistani shelling.
``There have been several infiltration attempts in the last few days...the Pak Army assisted and supported these bids by resorting to heavy unprovoked shelling of posts along the LoC,'' said an Army officer.
The latest infiltration attempt took place in Kupwara area in the early hours of Monday. An Indian Army ambush party in Keran sector, deployed around 400 metres away from the LoC, detected the movement of terrorists at around 3 am.
Two terrorists were shot dead in the ``fierce'' gun-battle that ensued and a ``large amount of war-like material'' was recovered from the place of the incident. ``The Keran sector provides a ideal gateway to Hafruda forest and Lolab Valley for militants,'' said the officer.
``Seen in conjunction with the two earlier infiltration bids in Poonch sector during the last one week and in view of the fact that for every infiltration bid detected, three to four other bids go undetected, it is evident that infiltration across the LoC is going on despite Pakistan's promises to stop it,'' he added.
Nine militants have been killed in these recent infiltration attempts at Keran, Sarian and Phagwari Gali, with the Army seizing six AK series assault rifles, a pistol, a revolver and a radio set, along with large quantities of RDX and ammunition, during the encounters.
``Though the infiltration may have come down, these incidents show it is yet to stop fully. Radio intercepts show militants are just being asked to lie low for some time to ward off international pressure,'' said an official.
A large number of militants are massed at different ``launch pads'' along the LoC and are waiting for an opportune time to cross over. Apart from infiltration levels, the Army is also keeping a close watch on some ``permanent markers'' like decline in the levels of terrorist violence; border shelling; channelling of hawala money into the Valley; and communication between militants and their Pakistan Army controllers.
A Note On Hawala Money Transfers
Suppose that the head office of a terrorist organization wants to send money to a cell in another country. The head office will deposit cash with a Hawala dealer. The dealer will get in touch with his counterpart in the destination country, and the counterpart will pay the cell in local cash. No record will be kept on any side. The transaction will be untraceable. Before direct dial telephones, and in the days one could reasonably assume all telephone calls in and out of the country were routinely recorded - particularly so in authoritarian countries - the messages used to go by coded telegram or letter, and two weeks or more could elapse before the cell received money. With the arrival of direct dial telephony to most of the world, the period was cut to days. In the internet era it is down to hours. The system works on complete trust, and the hawala dealers on either side never cheat customers. For one thing its bad business, and in this business a man's word is all he has. For another thing, if the money is of sufficient quantity to steal, the affected party is not the housemaid sending money back to her family, often at an exchange rate better than that the central bank offers. The affected party is likely to be bad people possessing a certain facility with firearms, so cheating them is doubly a bad idea.
With the arrival of millions of immigrants in the last 30 years, the US has its share of hawala dealers, as the law enforcement agencies are finding out. They exists outside the specialized money laundering shops and organizations set up for the South American drug trade. But before hawala as we know it today became commonplace in the United States, a perfectly legal system existed in cities like New York. You could go to a money dealer who was listed in the phone book, had an office, telephones, and staff, and had a board telling you just what your dollars would buy that day in your country's local currency. The dealer kept records as required under US law. So that hawala was a beast of a different order.
Return To Top July 2, 2002
July 1, 2002
Tomorrow we will feature a rebutal and analysis of the problems India says it is having with Israeli sensors, written by our editor Kirill.
A Pakistani Analysis of the US-Pakistan-India-Kashmir Equation
Sensors in Kashmir June 29
India to bolster air defense June 29
Al-Qaeda getting fresh arms, equipment: Rumsfeld June 28
New Jihadist Army Forming in Balkans: From Debka.com June 28
News of the Weird: "Psychological Warfare" - an article from Arabnews.com June 25
Mechanics of a living bomb June 19
The "Buffer Zones" Myth June 19
A Pakistani Analysis of the US-Pakistan-India-Kashmir Equation
This is one of the best analyses we have read discussing how Pakistan sees the new equations on the US-Pakistan-India-Kashmir interaction. It is written by Nasim Zehra of the Daily Jang of Pakistan. We have tried to get in touch with the Jang to work out something so that our readers can have regular access to this excellent newspaper - along with the Dawn, the Nation, and the Frontier Post it is quite representative of both the Pakistani official and unofficial viewpoints - but we have yet to hear back.
Kashmir in emerging diplomatic context
The recent visit of CENTCOM chief General Tommy Franks almost exclusively dealt with Pak-US joint military operations against suspected al-Qaeda men. India-Pakistan relations and the LoC barely figured in the talks between the visiting general and his Pakistani hosts including President General Pervez Musharraf, notwithstanding Washington's deep engagement with the issue of infiltration across the LoC. In the immediate context, it puts the onus of "doing" on Pakistan. It requires evidence that Pakistan is actively block the LoC and destroy the "terrorist infrastructure" in Pakistan. Questions about closure of training camps are repeatedly raised. Concrete evidence is being sought; whether temporary or permanent, is also being asked. Pakistan realises that in this round the words will be checked by ground facts.
Washington's "expectations list" vis-a-vis what Islamabad must deliver on the India-Pakistan front comes mostly from State Department officials. Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld's early June trip was the only exception. Interestingly, Musharraf again repeated his expectation that India will return to dialogue table on Jammu and Kashmir. Rumsfeld reportedly hinted at some dialogue-related development as a possibility but ruled out resumption of dialogue within the immediate context.
The State Department, however, finds itself as the main interlocutor of whatever indirect exchange occurs between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. Whatever the political situation on the ground on the Indian side of the LoC, the diplomatic pressure remains on Pakistan. In Pakistan there is realisation that a comprehensive approach will now work -- one which is committed primarily to a credible political process through which a just and durable settlement to the J&K problems is found. Musharraf had launched a diplomatic offensive to bring Delhi to the negotiating table. The cross-LoC infiltration, blocked under international and Indian pressure, is the olive branch that Musharraf claims he is extending to Delhi. In Delhi, still relishing its diplomatic achievement, policy-makers repeatedly question the credibility of the olive branch. They maintain, from the numerous interviews that Musharraf gives, that there is enough to quote in support of Delhi's assertion that he is not serious. That his olive branch is conditional and time-bound. That the factor of permanence is missing.
In Delhi, Musharraf's latest Newsweek interview is invoked as evidence. Musharraf had said "first of all I don't call it cross-border terrorism. There is a freedom struggle going on in Kashmir. What I said is that there is no movement across the LoC. I have told President Bush nothing is happening across the LoC. This is the assurance I've given. I'm not going to give you an assurance that for years nothing will happen. We must address the root cause, the cause of Kashmir."
Vigorous double-edged defence came from Washington. Reassuring the Indians that within 24 hours, the US State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said on June 24 that Musharraf had repeatedly given assurances "to Deputy Secretary Richard Armitage that ending of infiltration across the LoC would be permanent. The US has heard this commitment quite clearly from President Musharraf." In Musharraf's defence, Boucher said: "We've seen him carry it out. So we have no reason to disbelieve him."
Whatever Washington's defence of Musharraf, in Islamabad these are predicament times. Four audiences are being addressed in any policy articulation on the J&K issue; Pakistanis, Kashmiris in Indian Occupied J&K, the Indians and the international community. How far is a comprehensively thought policy now ready for "launch", factoring in all these elements is a key issue. Musharraf appears to have worked it out himself. Hence his many statements. Some maybe adding to confusion.
Earlier in his June 4 Almaty press conference, Musharraf had confidently maintained that reports generated by advanced American surveillance equipment will practically demonstrate Pakistan's pledge to control to the extent possible cross LoC infiltration. But the quid pro quo from India he sought was dialogue on J&K. Military de-escalation is "self-serving" is "cosmetic", he maintains. Consistently he repeats this formula. In his June 21 BBC radio interview also, Musharraf dismisses Indian military de-escalation as self-serving. He warns that Pakistan "will teach India a lesson if India comes across the LoC."
Additionally, Musharraf argues that while tension had eased, the threat of war could quickly build up again in the event of a terror attack blamed on the Kashmiris. For Delhi, complete peace inside its side of the LoC will signify no infiltration from Pakistani side of the LoC. This is the logical inference drawn by Delhi's position that the armed struggle in the Indian-occupied J&K is completely foreign-inspired. A fact that Indian Home Minister LK Advani contradicted when he said that Hizbul Mujahideen "are our own misguided youth". Extending the Musharraf argument, other Pakistani officials argue that law and order inside held Kashmir is not Pakistan's responsibility. Delhi with its over six hundred thousand security forces inside the state should successfully manage the situation if there is no genuine peoples' struggle being conducted.
On the question of "permanent" closure of the LoC, Musharraf's key foreign policy men, however, identify three factors they claim influence LoC closure. One, despite all efforts made by the government to stop infiltration "freelance Jihadi" elements may still cross-over; two, given the rugged terrain along the LoC zero-infiltration is not possible given that India's mining of the LoC and three-tiered troop stationing on its side has not worked; three, unless there is reciprocity from the Indian side in the form of re-opening dialogue on the Jammu and Kashmir dispute, the policy of blocking the LoC will not be sustainable.
Officials present in the meeting with Armitage claim that the president had clearly stated the permanence of closure of LoC will be conditional on Indian reciprocity. They, however, maintain that from this statement inference cannot be drawn that Pakistan is threatening to deliberately support cross-LoC infiltration.
While closure is not conditional, they claim, in Pakistan there is people's support for the legitimate Azadi struggle in Jammu and Kashmir. Combined with this maybe the potential to privatise the Kashmir policy. There exists in Pakistan, beyond the control of the state trained human capital for such an undertaking. It is the yield of the CIA-supported policy of creating a potent mix of religion and gun to defeat the evil Soviet empire.
Conceptually, there is clarity on going back to the pre-1989 Kashmir policy. For supporting the primacy of the political struggle. Talking to India Today, a high-ranking official of the Musharraf government maintained that "In today's world you cannot hide anything so there cannot be dichotomy in policy, because then you lose your credibility. You cannot run with the hare and hunt with the hound." However, because of factors within and outside of the government control, this conceptual clarity cannot necessarily translate into neat policy implementation; especially if Delhi conveniently concludes that Musharraf cannot be trusted and decides to keep the diplomatic pressure on Pakistan instead of reciprocating to the closure of LoC with a dialogue. Musharraf has found himself in a difficult. His maverick and bold approach on Jammu and Kashmir shows no immediate dividends. It cannot. The dominant policy thrust in international circles calls for end to "cross-border terrorism". The Kashmir freedom struggle is relegated to the back burner. At least the issue is being seen internationally from Delhi's lens.
Against this backdrop, Delhi feels no compulsion to re-open dialogue with Pakistan on the J&K issue. It hopes continued diplomatic pressure on Pakistan till the October elections in J&K. However, the question for Delhi to ask itself is whether such a policy would indeed translate into a successful Jammu and Kashmir policy? Will pressure on Pakistan and the international diplomatic support "deliver" to Delhi? Delhi's pursuit of a short-sighted Kashmir policy, banking on disinformation, force and "quick-fix" politics will unlikely yield for the Indian what it has actively sought for the last fifty-five years; integration of the disputed Jammu and Kashmir in the Indian Union.
Meanwhile, both Islamabad and Delhi have expectations from Washington. Often differing ones. Islamabad wants Washington to deliver resumption of a "high-level Pakistan-India dialogue on Jammu and Kashmir" leading eventually to a political solution. Delhi hopes this current policy of exerting continuous pressure on Pakistan calling for permanent closure of training camps and ending "cross-border terrorism" will lead to making LoC a permanent border. For now Washington is tilting the Delhi way. According to Srinagar daily The Observer's June 27 report, from Delhi a US embassy delegation visited Srinagar on June 26. The purpose of the visit was primarily to examine the possibility of a fair and free election, being held within the Indian Constitution, becoming the basis of a solution to the J&K dispute between India, Pakistan and the people of Jammu and Kashmir.
Return To Top July 1, 2002
June 29, 2002
Sensors in Kashmir
India to bolster air defense
Al-Qaeda getting fresh arms, equipment: Rumsfeld June 28
New Jihadist Army Forming in Balkans: From Debka.com June 28
Arafat On His Way Out June 26
News of the Weird: "Psychological Warfare" - an article from Arabnews.com June 25
Mechanics of a living bomb June 19
The "Buffer Zones" Myth June 19
Sensors in Kashmir
A report in the New York based ethnic weekly India Abroad says that US sensors have been tested in the Jammu area. There is an implication the sensors have been supplied by Sandia. The General officer Commanding XVI Corps, which is responsible for the Jammu front, is quoted as saying detection of infiltrators has increased by 20% with the sensors. The reports says a combination of fixed and mobile sensors would work best.
Conversely, the Indian Border Security Force, a paramilitary organization that is directly responsible for the border with Pakistan and which supplements the Army in wartime, is said to be unhappy with its four year experience with a 5-km line built with Israeli sensors at a cost of about $70,000 a kilometer. Whereas the Jammu sector is open, the Kupwara sector where the Israeli sensors appear to have been tried is heavily forested with high mountain and deep gullies. The Indians found that the slightest overpressure triggered the sensors, so that in many case the BSF reacted to alarms trigged off by waving vegetation or animals.
We need to ask why the Israeli line was not tied in with other sensors such as thermally-activated ones and ground radar. Any system with just one type of sensor will surely prove unreliable. We also need to ask why the experiment went on for four years. If this is the urgency with which India treats its infiltration problem, we should not be surprised that it has made such little progress in the 17 years of the Kashmir insurgency.
Return To Top June 29, 2002
India to bolster air defense
From the Times of India
NEW DELHI: India is closely looking at various anti-missile and anti-aircraft systems, in addition to several early-warning and surveillance radars, to bolster its air defence capabilities.The country, of course, will have to eventually erect a theatre missile defence system, with an overlapping network of early-warning radars and counter-missile batteries, to negate the threat of ballistic and cruise missiles, say experts.Towards this end, as reported earlier, India is taking a close look at the different versions of the Israeli 'Arrow' and the Russian long-range 'S-300' anti-missile systems. These systems, however, are still being fine-tuned in their respective countries.Though as of now India may not have made much progress in acquiring an anti-missile shield, it has gone ahead and acquired the advanced 'Green Pine' fire-control radars from Israel.
The 'Green Pine' system, a transportable phased-array radar, which forms a crucial component of the 'Arrow' system, can detect and track incoming missiles from around 500 km away.Defence secretary Yogendra Narain, on the sidelines of an NCC function on Friday, in fact told journalists, "After discussions for the past three to four years, we have acquired a 'Green Pine' radar." The radar, mainly used in the mode of an Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) when mounted on a flying platform, will be used for "advanced research" purposes, Narain said.
Asked about media reports that New Delhi had made an urgent request to Tel Aviv for the Ofek spy satellite and Arrow system during a recent high-level Israeli delegation visit, Narain said the discussions did not focus on these systems as they were not fully operational yet.
Israel, in recent years, has become one of the largest arms supplier to India. For instance, India plans to deploy AWACs, which will have the Israeli 'Phalcon' early-warning radars and communications systems mounted on the Russian Ilyushin-76 heavy transport military aircraft.
Meanwhile, as part of the stepped-up efforts to check infiltration across the Line of Control and combat insurgency in J&K, the defence ministry has cleared purchase of varieties of night-vision devices and hand-held thermal imagers in large numbers for the Army.
Asserting that there would not be any pull-back of troops from the borders till October, Narain said some tactical re-deployment could take place.
[Kindly note the Defense Secretary's witty reply: the discussion did not focus on Ofek and Arrow. A pity the press did not think of asking him why it has taken 17 years to buy night-vision equipment to fight infiltration. It also might have been interesting to ask him if it is true one reason the Indian Army was reluctant to go to war against Pakistan was because India lacks night vision equipment for its tanks whereas Pakistan has been installing NV as standard for the last 10+ years. Editor.]
Return To Top June 29, 2002
Al-Qaeda getting fresh arms, equipment: Rumsfeld
The Washigton Times report was carried by Pakistan's Jang newspaper.
WASHINGTON: Al-Qaeda fighters in Pakistan and Afghanistan have received new shipments of weapons and other equipment, US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld told The Washington Times. "We have very recently discovered some new stuff that is not old, and it is modern," Rumsfeld said in an interview published on Friday. "It is expensive. It is well-done," he said. Without disclosing where the equipment was found, he said it included "25 backpacks all well done with the right equipment and modern stuff and professionally done," Rumsfeld said. He declined to describe the "modern stuff," but said it was being separated for the emerging Afghan national army.
Older equipment, he said, was "dangerous and unstable" and was destroyed, he added. Rumsfeld said the equipment came from "everywhere. If you spread it all out, the passports are from lots of different places. The medical equipment and the weapons are from lots of different places. So it's not like the money's dried up. There's still more money and more new things coming in," Rumsfeld said referring to al-Qaeda's finances.
CNN on Thursday said the FBI and Immigration and Naturalisation Service (INS) questioned dozens of Pakistanis operating or working at jewellery kiosks in shopping malls around the country, in the search for possible sources of terrorism funding. The sweep netted no evidence to support the allegation and no criminal charges were filed, officials told CNN, but the INS placed some of the people in custody for immigration violations. Rumsfeld said he was amazed at the amount of weapons that have been accumulated in Afghanistan throughout its long history of warfare. "Literally, you cannot imagine the hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of things armoured vehicles and rockets, everything under the sun. Surface-to-air missiles. It must be from 20 different countries," he said.
Rumsfeld said the US-led military campaign tracking down al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters in Afghanistan and Pakistan was making progress, but warned that the war was far from over. He estimated that remnants of the enemy forces remained in probably one third of Afghanistan's 32 provinces.
[Meanwhile, the Jang reports that 32 people were killed in the Afghan arms dump explosion. It also carries a report quoting the Indian prime Minister as saying there is no question of war with Pakistan. The US has lifted its travel advisory on India.
We are still waiting for some official acknowledgement that the travel advisory had nothing to do with America's assessment of the likelihood of war in South Asia, but everything to do with playing hard ball: the Americans were fed up being pressured by India on Pakistan, and being repeatedly told "this time we are really, really, really going to war". The US reply was: "Then we really, really, really need to get our people out," and of course India is still adding up the losses in tourism and investment. Of course, if you happen to be one of the 60,000 Americans in India who's lives were disrupted because of this not very clever poker playing, or if you were one of the hundreds of thousands of Indians also affected, its just too bad. Editor.]
Return To Top June 29, 2002
June 28, 2002
How IRNA Sees The Latest Israeli Anti-Terror Moves
New Jihadist Army Forming in Balkans: From Debka.com
Afghan Army Training Slower Than U.S. Hoped
Thailand Anti-Terror Briefing June 27
An Example Of The Difficulty Of Governing Pakistan June 27
Arafat On His Way Out June 26
News of the Weird: "Psychological Warfare" - an article from Arabnews.com June 25
Mechanics of a living bomb June 19
The "Buffer Zones" Myth June 19
How IRNA Sees The Latest Israeli Anti-Terror Moves
Israeli army confines 2 million Palestinians to their homes
From IRNA.com [The Islamic Republic News Agency, from Iran]
In a draconian measure reminiscent of thedark ages, the Israeli occupation army has confined as many two million Palestinians to their homes, warning that people leaving theirhomes could be shot and killed. In Al-Khalil, the second largest town in the West Bank, armored personnel carries continued to provocatively patrol the streets, training their heavy machine guns at terrified civilians. Meanwhile, Israeli soldiers carried out house-to-house searches throughout and Palestinians say the soldiers indulged in wanton acts of vandalism.
''They vandalize everything, they are acting like the Gestapo during the second World war,'' said Ahmed Maraqa, a shopkeeper. ''It seems they think they have received a green light from (US President George) Bush to do as they like to us.''
Earlier, Israeli tanks fired several artillery shells at the Mukata'a building, the PA government headquarters in the city, destroying parts of the old building, dating back to the British mandate authority. The Israeli occupation army said some Palestinian policemen were barricading inside the complex and refusing to surrender to the Israeli army. It is not clear how long the Palestinians would remain confined totheir homes. An Israeli spokesman was quoted today as saying that any Palestinian seen walking in the streets would be considered a ''terrorist'' and would be shot and killed.
More to the point, Israeli troops declared all Palestinian towns closed military Zones, off-limit to journalists, Palestinians and foreign alike. The measure is believed aimed at avoiding unfavourable media coverage of an army brutalizing and tormenting a civilian population. During the past few days, Israeli forces reportedly rounded up hundreds of Palestinians on suspicion of resisting Israeli occupation and apartheid. Among the people arrested in Al-Khalil today are a journalist and the owner of a print press. The detainees are taken to several detention and concentration camps throughout Palestine where the Palestinians are often harshly interrogated and tortured.
Return To Top June 28, 2002
New Jihadist Army Forming in Balkans: From Debka.com
The next radical Islamic terror attack in America could well originate in a corner of the Balkans, where a new jihad force is taking shape quietly and unhindered. In its last issue, published on Friday, June 21, DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military sources reported that close to 20,000 fighters, battled-hardened veterans and eager young recruits, are already under arms, with more joining up all the time.
An Islamist bloc of nations (whose formation has been reported in the past by DEBKAfile) - made up of Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, al Qaeda and Hizballah, with active Palestinian support - is behind the new Muslim Balkan army. Saudi, Iranian and Iraqi intelligence services and al Qaeda operations officers in Macedonia, Kosovo, Bosnia and Albania are tasked with recruitment, training and organization. The units are armed with modern weaponry, including missiles and artillery, while handpicked young Muslim recruits have been sent to sign up at private flying schools, especially in the Czech Republic and Bulgaria, as the nucleus of an air force.
Having learned the lessons of the war in Afghanistan, planners and commanders keep their heads well down, their training bases and facilities well hidden.
Recruitment is brisk among the ethnic Albanian Muslim populations of Kosovo, Macedonia and Bosnia, as well as Albania proper. Hundreds of mosques are sprouting in these countries, funded from deep Saudi pockets. The mosques open cultural societies to attract boys aged 15 to 16 and enroll them at medressas which, like their Pakistani prototypes, integrate military training in their curricula. The result is an expanding recruiting pool for terrorists, the same as Pakistan's medressas, before the US invasion of Afghanistan.
Because Balkan Muslim families tend to be large, the percentage of teenagers in the general population is among the highest in the world, close to half, providing a potential recruiting reservoir of three quarters of a million youngsters.
Each mosque has its Saudi imam, who takes orders from Saudi intelligence. The military instructors are Iranian and Iraqi officers, as well as al Qaeda commanders who fought the Americans in Afghanistan. They mark out the best and brightest students for long-term careers. At the age of 17, these youths are promoted to a secret quasi-military organization and given three training sessions a week in urban warfare, weapons systems, the manufacture of explosive devices, bombs and mines, ways of demolishing tanks and aircraft, as well as night combat. After two months, they receive a fixed salary of roughly $500 to $700 a month, an irresistible draw in a society where employment is scarce. A month later, they are given uniforms and personal weapons, which they take home and hide. Drilled into them is the consciousness that their wages depend on perfect obedience to their instructors and religious mentors.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards (Pazdaran) have set up a logistical command center in the Iranian embassy in Skopje to coordinate the swelling movements of Iranian, Iraqi and Saudi instructors, organizers, couriers and bagmen in and out of the Balkans, usually from the Middle East. Most of the Saudis are al Qaeda operatives who fought in Afghanistan.
Until recently, they all traveled to the Balkans by indirect routes, careful not to draw attention to themselves, especially from agents of the US intelligence services attached to US Special Force contingents based in Kosovo and Bosnia. When they saw that no US intelligence service appeared interested in their activities, the travelers began to throw caution to the winds, freely using Skopje's international airport for their comings and goings.
Our sources have failed to turn up any hand obstructing the emergence of the Balkan Muslim terrorist force, although fundamentalist governments of the Middle East and al Qaeda have fathered it for the aim of injecting young blood into the Islamic terror movement and invigorate the movement dedicated to violent assault against the West, primarily the United States.
The government of the former Yugoslav republic of Macedonia, headed by its president Boris Trajkovski, is painfully aware of the threat. But, 11 months after concluding a ceasefire with Albanian insurgents, its army (see picture) can scarcely stand up alone to the youthful terrorist force, led by professional Saudi, Iranian and Iraqi military instructors as well as al-Qaeda terror experts.
As a provisional containment measure, the Macedonian government has secretly closed the country's borders to the passage of goods to and from Kosovo, Bosnia and Albania, hoping to block the flow of weapons and ammunition supplies to the Muslim army. But it is probably too late to have much effect. Nevertheless, Macedonian forces are believed to be preparing to go into the regions taken over by the Jihadist force for the urgent but hopeless task of flushing the out.
If this action goes ahead, it will most likely trigger an upsurge of violence on the tiny Balkan republic's borders.
Return To Top June 28, 2002
Afghan Army Training Slower Than U.S. Hoped
A UPI story reported in Military.com.
[Story abbreviated]
The first two battalions of the Afghan National Army are about half the size they were expected to be: There has been trouble recruiting, and four weeks into the training program about 25 percent of the soldiers had already quit.
Provincial warlords are reluctant to give up their fighters, their weapons and their resources to the new central army which in 18 months time -- if the Green Berets running the school can stem the tide of quitters -- could number as many as 14,400. U.S. soldiers are quickly identifying and patching the problems in the system. Their first lesson was not to leave recruitment up to the village leaders. "They lied to them," said Maj. Fritz, who asked not to be fully identified in this article. "They didn't tell them they'd be training for 10 weeks and they didn't tell them what the pay was." Soldiers get paid $30 a month while in training then $50 a month thereafter. Squad leaders get $50, platoon sergeants $70, and officers $150.
Psychological operations soldiers from the Army spent five days in Kandahar, in southern Afghanistan, drinking tea, talking and recruiting 80 new students for the military academy before the start of the second battalion's training. Nearly all of them have remained in the program. For a while, even getting the most basic equipment was a challenge: the Afghan National Army was supposed to be first on the list to get the many rifles and guns discovered in Taliban and al Qaida hideouts. But they were actually third or fourth on the list, according Fritz, after local warlords claimed their share and Special Forces soldiers in the field distributed them to local forces helping to hunt down what remains of the enemy.
Most of the weapons that do get sent to the Kabul training facility -- occupied at various times by Soviet, Taliban and al Qaida soldiers -- are largely unusable. Out of 400 sent to McDonnell from seized caches, only 185 were in working order. The government of Romania solved the immediate problem by sending 1,000 AK-Ms, a variant of the AK-47, and 200,000 rounds of ammunition -- adequate to train one complete battalion.
Getting sufficient men here to build an army is difficult. Making matters even more complicated is the fact that U.S. Special Forces soldiers -- as opposed to those on training duty at the academy -- are embedded with local warlords around the country as they continue to fight remnants of the Taliban or al Qaida. They do this with the help of regional militias whose loyalties are to tribal chiefs or regional strongmen -- the very men who will have to yield power if Karzai is to succeed in stabilizing Afghanistan.
In Washington Wednesday, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld defended the two-pronged approach.
"You don't tear down what is until you substitute something better, one would think. And that means that as the central government gains the advantages and the weight and the heft and the strength... there will be less need for the regional political leaders to maintain large armies, one would hope," Rumsfeld said at a Pentagon press briefing. Recruitment for the third battalion -- two are already in training -- will be the first litmus test for the new government. Though their ranks are thin, the soldiers that remain are enthusiastic and the best hope for the new government of Afghanistan under newly inaugurated President Hamid Karzai: proof that the central authority in Kabul can provide security and stability, and unify tribes and ethnic groups with a history of warfare under a single flag. Graffiti has started appearing on the walls of the dusty, sprawling facility which reads "One Afghanistan," an instructor pointed out -- an optimistic sign that the recruits were beginning to see themselves as a single fighting force.
Return To Top June 28, 2002
June 27, 2002
Click here for Johann Price's Update On Task Force Rakkasan
Thailand Anti-Terror Briefing
US Coast Guard To Reequip
An Example Of The Difficulty Of Governing Pakistan
10 Pakistani Soldiers Killed On Al-Qaida Raid
Arafat On His Way Out June 26
News of the Weird: "Psychological Warfare" - an article from Arabnews.com June 25
Mechanics of a living bomb June 19
The "Buffer Zones" Myth June 19
Thailand Anti-Terror Briefing
Forwarded by reader Eric Brindle, the article is courtesy of Forecast International/DMS Electronic News Service, and was written by its Thai correspondent, Supatra Soavapop.
Thailand's Internal Security Operations Command (ISOC) reports that a wave of unrest that has seen the killing of 13 police officers in the last month is the work of an al-Queda group whose members have just started returning from training in a Middle East country. ISOC last month learned that 15 core members of the al-Queda group had returned from the Middle East, while another 185 had left for training in Iraq under President Saddam Hussein's sponsorship. This group is quite distinct from the existing Moslem separatist insurgents that still exist in the South of Thailand, but are now little more than common bandits rather than terrorists.
"The 185 men are expected to return in the next six months and it is feared they will cause further trouble, and the South will again find itself the centre of a raging fire, just like in 1987,'' said General Pallop Pinmanee, Isoc Deputy Director. General Pallop led the highly successful Thai campaign against communist insurgents in Thailand. He said that the Al_Queda trainees were coming back with a militant separatist ideology and would follow the line of the Aceh separatists in Indonesia, including launching murderous attacks against those who followed religions other than Islam. These developments are very important for they establish a firm organizational link between Saddam Hussein and the al-Queda terrorist groups.
Meanwhile, authorities in Narathiwat province have asked neighboring Malaysia to carefully screen people travelling across the common border. Following the request, the commander of a border police battalion in Malaysia's Kelantan state notified Thai authorities that 13 border crossings in Kelantan opposite Tak Bai, Sungai Kolok, Sukhirin and Waeng districts would be temporarily closed. Thai authorities have sent their Malaysian counterparts a list of names and pictures of suspected members of 10 separatist groups operating in Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat provinces.
Return To Top June 27, 2002
US Coast Guard To Reequip
Ravi Rikhye
Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman have won a $17 billion 20-year contract to reequip the United States Coast Guard. This will bring the Coast Guard, a front-line instrument in the new war against terror, into the 21st Century in terms of equipment and systems, and save it from the steady decline in capabilities of the last ten years. The US has been funding replacement ships and aircraft at a 2% annual rate, implying assets must remain operational for50 years, a clear impossibility given the operating demands on the service.
Deepwater is the largest recapitalization effort in the history of the Coast Guard and will involve the acquisition of up to 91 ships, 35 fixed-wing aircraft, 34 helicopters, 76 unmanned surveillance aircraft, and upgrade of 49 existing cutters and 93 helicopters, in addition to systems for communications, surveillance and command and control.
Five classes of ships will be replaced by two, a 4,000 ton multi-purpose frigate size cutter for offshore operations, and a 500-ton cutter for inshore operations.
The strength of the new fleet will be that all elements, manned or unmanned, will function as one system. Every element will be linked to every other element, and the system will be linked to other national security systems. For example, a cutter boarding a suspicious target will now be able to get all information in national databases relating to the ship, and will be able to identify any crew or passenger who has a record of any sort in the United States. As is now becoming commonplace in US military systems, any element will be able to hand-off target data to any other element. The reequipment program, code-named Deepwater, will also permit the Coast Guard to fully integrate with the US Navy for littoral operations in North American waters or overseas.
Details of the new cutters are vague, possibly because for the first time the Coast Guard only specified its tasks, leaving it to bidders to determine how best to meet the needs. We do know, nonetheless, that the offshore cutters will have one rapid fire gun, space for AA systems, and the ability to hanger and operate two helicopters. Of the money awarded, $12 billion is for capital costs and almost $6 billion for support.
Return To Top June 27, 2002
An Example Of The Difficulty Of Governing Pakistan
We present this article not to run down Pakistan in any way, but to demonstrate to our readers some of the difficulties of governing this country. In most countries, the Honorable Sardar Akbar Bugti, leader of the Bugti clan, would be comfortably enjoying the hospitality of the government in a barred 6 by 8 cell.
From the Frontier Post, an article by Navid Miraj.
Dera Bugti Crisis Threatens To Scare Off Oil and Gas Investment
ISLAMABAD: The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources remains perfectly indifferent to the plight of oil companies suffering losses of hundreds of millions of rupees because of the tribal turbulence in Balochistan, The Frontier Post can report.
Up until now, the state-run OGDCL (Oil and Gas Development Company Limited) alone has suffered losses to the tune of Rs250 million during to the latest spell of disturbance in Dera Bugti.
Similar losses have been suffered by Lasmo and PPL (Pakistan Petroleum Limited), the other two operators working in the region. But the Ministry has taken no action to help manage the crisis, an official at the Ministry confirmed.
OGDCL officials say their operations have been disrupted by subversive activities perpetrated by Bugti chieftains. Some of the key pipelines leading out of the Sui field have been riddled with bullets and rendered unserviceable.This despite the recent OGDCL payment of Rs20 million to Sardar Akbar Bugti, the politician-patriarch of the Bugti tribe. But the mercurial chieftain remains far from won over, pressing for more money and concessions. "The Bugti chieftain is totally implacable", said an official speaking on condition of anonymity.
"It is customary for him to insist 700 acres of land are involved where actual area is no more than say 50 acres, just to extort bigger favours". Typical favours include a new road to one of Nawab's deras; new furniture for another; the latest model of this or that SUV; and so on.
And justifications for these favours include not only his acres but also waterholes. Exploration, drilling, and field operation activities in Balochistan have long remained hostage to the whims of tribal lords of the region. Under the law, the federal government owns all mineral reserves in Pakistan. The government has traditionally spent billions on development projects in the region, and paid billions more to the tribesmen as a gesture of goodwill. These handouts, however, have always been channelled through the chieftains, who have insisted it is their right under the tribal custom to 'represent' their tribes in all such matters. The suffering party in the affair have been the people of these areas. Needless to say, the handout funds have never reached the common tribesman.
The chieftains have blocked development works, especially any social development initiatives including education facilities, lest emancipation of the public undermine their monopolistic control of the lives of the people. Historically, any government effort to set things right has been open to political blackmail. The limited action undertaken by the provincial authorities to stem the current crisis seem to be suffering the same setback. Especially at a time when the authorities are striving hard to kick-start exploration and drilling activities in the country, the situation warrants serious consideration, oil industry experts say.
"You cannot expect oil companies to invest millions of dollars and then remain subject to such damaging crises", said one executive. "If Pakistan is serious about unleashing its energy potential, the government will have to come up with permanent solutions to problems like the one going on in Balochistan."
Return To Top June 27, 2002
10 Pakistani troops killed in clash with al-Qaeda in Waziristan
From the Daily Jung of Pakistan, an article by Behroz Khan.
PESHAWAR: In a first-ever direct encounter with the Pakistani forces, suspected al-Qaeda fighters killed 10 Pakistan Army and paramilitary personnel, while losing two of their men in a shootout inside a house in South Waziristan Agency on Tuesday night.
"Our forces have lost 10 persons, five from the armed forces and five from the South Waziristan Scouts in the encounter last night," confirmed Assistant Political Agent Wana Anwar Ali Shah. The official also confirmed the death of two al-Qaeda fighters and arrest of one, who Shah said, were believed to be Chechens. "We are communicating with the arrested person in broken Persian," the official said. The collective funeral of the 10 Pakistani security personnel was held at the Scouts Camp on Wednesday, while the bodies of the killed soldiers were flown to their native villages and cities in Army helicopters, officials said.
There were a total of 35 Arab and Chechen fighters, taking refuge in a big compound at Tangarai village of Azam Warsak area, which was owned by one Abdul Khaliq, an Ahmadzai Wazir tribesman, locals said. Abdul Khaliq is in hiding, while the political authorities, aided by personnel from the Army used bulldozers to demolish the house where the suspected al-Qaeda fighters had sought refuge since the Taliban defeat in December last year.
The foreign nationals, eyewitnesses said, were residing in the segregated compound along with their families. US and Pakistani intelligence agencies had long been suspecting presence of the remnants of the Taliban and al-Qaeda in the tribal belt, sharing borders with Afghanistan.
The entire area, eyewitnesses said, has been cordoned off, while US planes are hovering over the mountainous terrain since yesterday night amid fears that the area might come under heavy bombardment in pursuit of the fleeing al-Qaeda fighters.
The encounter, locals said continued for quite long, which enabled the trapped al-Qaeda members to withdraw to the nearby mountains taking advantage of the darkness. "The search for the fleeing Al-Qaeda suspects is on and fresh reinforcement has been sent to hunt them," said a senior government official, asking not to be named.
"The operation was launched by Pakistani troops on their own and no American was involved in the raid," said Anwar Ali Shah, adding that local tribesmen were also helping the government in the search for the wanted persons. Pakistani troops had the opportunity to get access to the remotest tribal belt for the first time since independence, as the US government sought Islamabad's help in the hunt against al-Qaeda and Taliban.
Locals informed that the main business centres and shops remained closed on Wednesday, while speculations were ripe all the day long about strong retaliation by the Pakistan and the US forces to punish the fleeing al-Qaeda suspects and their local protectors.
Eyewitnesses said that the Pakistani troops entered the compound following negotiations between the two sides, as the suspected al-Qaeda fighters had reportedly agreed to the terms of surrender. "What happened inside the compound and what triggered the shooting is yet to be ascertained," said an official of the political administration, adding that it seemed as if the shooting, started by the terrorists, was a part of their planning. The official said that the inmates had agreed to surrender to the Pakistani authorities before they started shooting the raiding party.
Two of the dead officers have been identified as Maj Rizwan and Capt Naeem, while names of the rest of the killed Pakistani security personnel could not be ascertained.
This is the second incident since January when personnel of the Pakistani security forces have been killed in encounters with suspected al-Qaeda fighters. Six personnel of the Khasadar Force and 10 Arabs were killed in Kurram Agency in January, when some Arab fighters, believed to be affiliated with Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda organisation staged a revolt and tried to hijack a bus, carrying them from Parachinar to Kohat jail. A total of 156 Arabs and nationals from Central Asian states, including some Chechens, were arrested from Kurram Agency after they escaped the heavy US bombing in Tora Boora area of Nangarhar province of Afghanistan.
[AFP reports that five US FBI agents were involved in the operation; the Pentagon told ABC-TV that US personnel had participated in the raid. Editor.]
Return To Top June 27, 2002
June 26, 2002
Arafat On His Way Out
News of the Weird: "Psychological Warfare" - an article from Arabnews.com June 25
Israel chooses subjugation, not negotiation June 25
The European terrorism review June 25
Our Ally, Our Problem:
Pakistan is an exceptionally hard case - here's what to do June 21
Mechanics of a living bomb June 19
The "Buffer Zones" Myth June 19
Arafat On His Way Out
Washington seems to have finally decided that Chairman Arafat's liabilities exceed his assets; like a good banker, it appears to have decided to write him off its books and to swallow the loss. About time too: please see the current Newsweek for some idea of how this tin-pot dictator has oppressed and robbed his people. If the Americans are culpable for the plight of the ordinary Palestinian, even more so are the Europeans, some of whom seem to revere the Chairman as some sort of Gandhi or Mandela.
Hopefully that is all going to be history now, and hopefully the Palestinian people will have the chance to rebuild their state anew.
While one problem seems to permit of a resolution, what is the world going to do about the other? Unless Israel stops building new settlements, and unless it dismantles most of the existing ones, no compromise is possible.
If that problem can be solved, another one remains. Can both sides forget the legacy of the last 20 months? If they cannot, the violence will continue.
And if that problem can be solved, another one remains. Will Arab regimes stop using the oppression of the Palestinian people as a diversion from their own oppressions and problems caused by lack of democracy at home? If not, they will continually stoke the pot, further victimizing the Palestinians they have victimized for 55 years while claiming to act in the Palestinian interest.
When faced with such intractable problems, Washington can only proceed one step at a time. Just as it never made much sense, in the end, to deal with the dictators of South Korea, South Vietnam, Haiti, former Yugoslavia, and fifty other countries, it makes no sense to deal with the dictator of Palestine. It was a bargain with the devil, and usually that turns out to be no bargain at all, whatever the short term tactical gains. Its only one step, but its an important first step. We believe there is an independent gas station, run by South Asians, for sale not one kilometer from your Editor's residence in suburban Washington DC. May we suggest Washington reserve it for Chairman Arafat? If Washington wants, your Editor is even willing - strictly in the interests of Mideast amity - to do the introductions. Editor
[In the July 1, 2002 issue of US News and World Report, Khaleed Abu Toameh and Larry Derfner detail the systemic pervasiveness of corruption, violence, and oppression that the Arafat regime has imposed on its people. The on-line story is only an extract. In the June 25, 2002 issue of the Washington Post, Karen DeYoung tells us that "Palestinian Statehood Depends on Arafat's Removal, Bush Says". The intial reactions to Mr. Bush's speech show only that everyone is playing the game that "the people" will decide Chairman Arafat's future. We feel Mr. Bush speaks better for the Palestinians at this point than Mr. Arafat. ]
By Richard M. Bennett, our colleague from AFI Research.
After Arafat - who comes next?
The fact that Israel has finally decided to ignore the limited protests still
coming from Washington and has moved a considerable portion of its
Army into Palestinian territory in a last attempt to prevent the steady
trickle of successful suicide bombings will have little effect on the
chances of an independent Palestinian State. The Oslo Agreement was
shot through with faults and inconsistencies, largely unenforceable and
ignored by both sides. It failed to deliver a definite time scale for the creation
of a Palestinian State, nor did it offer genuine guarantees for Israel's
long term security. It was a typical cobbled together diplomatic compromise
that invariably leads nowhere and often creates even more bitterness, distrust
and ultimately conflict. The Palestinian Authority was a sham, controlled
by Yasser Arafat, probably a CIA asset for many years and who ruthlessly
murdered or betrayed to the Israelis many of his opponents within the
Palestinian community. The disturbing relationship between one of the
Middle East's leading terrorists and his American paymasters may now
be at an end, however because most of those surviving potential leaders
are extremely hostile to Arafat's legacy and to both the USA and Israel,
it may well prove extremely difficult to find a replacement for Arafat who
will be acceptable to the Palestinian people and to both Washington
and Jerusalem.
The name of Nabil Shaath who holds an executive position within the
Palestinian authority akin to being a de facto 'Prime Minister' has been
put forward as Arafats replacement. Indeed Shaath is something of a
power behind the throne and has been accused of manipulating Arafat.
However in reality Shaath appears to be more of Arafats link to the CIA
and moderate Arab regimes. Nabil Shaath, unlike other leading Palestinians
appears to be able to travel widely and freely with considerable help from
the CIA, including visits to Riyadh earlier this year just before the launch of
the 'Saudi Plan', it is rumoured that he has also met representatives of both
Egyptian Intelligence and Israel's Mossad in European Cities and had
discussions with senior US Government figures including Powell and Rice
in advance of the US Presidents announcement of conditional support for a
proto-Palestinian State. The general consensus amongst many leading
Palestinian activists is that Shaath is corrupt and probably a traitor, even
suggesting that not only is he a CIA asset, but possibly in the pay of Israel.
It was but a few years ago that calls were made by the Palestinian assembly
to remove Shaath from all positions of power on charges of corruption,
however Arafat quickly moved to protect his vital link to the CIA and
effectively relegated the assembly to a mere talking shop.
A Palestinian leadership with no obvious successor
Few of the other members of the pro-American group within the Palestinian
leadership, Arafats close associates Abu Mazen, legislature speaker
Abu Ala, press adviser Yasser Abed Rabbo, intelligence adviser
Amin al Hindi and financial adviser Mohammed Rashid have much
remaining influence having pressed Yasser Arafat to abandon his radical
stance and his support of terror tactics. To many Palestinians it merely
confirmed their part in the corrupt and discredited leadership. The changes
proposed in the command of the Palestinian Security Forces may
point to the future leadership though, for while Muhamed Dahlan,
Arafats chief supporter in the Gaza Strip remains an influential figure,
the appointment of pro-Iraqi General Abd al-Razzaq al-Yahya as
Interior Minister suggests a move towards a more obvious
anti-Western stance. However Rashid Abu Shbak, Dahlans deputy
and the West bank security chief, Jibril Rajoub all remain in the
leadership frame along with a number of officials who appear to be
closest to Arafats thinking; Tawfiq Tirawi, the intelligence chief and
effective commander of the Fatah's Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades;
Sahar Habash, Arafats assistant, who is still attempting to hold
together the vital alliance with various extremist groups in the region
despite his leaders cosmetic crack-down on Hamas; Ahmad Saadat,
a leading official in one of those groups, the Popular Front for the
Liberation of Palestine or PFLP and of course Muhamed Dahlan
in Gaza.
Israel has little to gain in the short term from encouraging a more
moderate Palestinian leadership and indeed much to fear from the need
to respond to viable peace negotiations. Israel would stand to loose
control over vital water resources, strategically vital defensive military
positions and hundreds of illegal settlements on Palestinian land.
It will prove virtually impossible for the present or any foreseeable
Israeli Government to give up so much and at the same time accept the
creation of a fully fledged sovereign Palestinian State on its borders.
President Bush with the launch of his new initiative has probably
disappointed moderate Arab opinion despite a broadly positive public
first response. The equivocal US stance has only alienated further the
majority of Palestinians and confirmed the more hostile Arab regimes
in their view that Washington is still firmly in Sharon's pocket.
It appears that once again a serious opportunity for peace has been
squandered by The Whitehouse and further highlights the totally
moribund nature of the United States present Middle East policy.
Return To Top June 26, 2002
June 25, 2002
News of the Weird: "Psychological Warfare" - an article from Arabnews.com
Israel chooses subjugation, not negotiation June 25
The European terrorism review June 25
Our Ally, Our Problem:
Pakistan is an exceptionally hard case - here's what to do June 21
Mechanics of a living bomb June 19
The "Buffer Zones" Myth June 19
News of the Weird: "Psychological Warfare" - an article from Arabnews.com
By John R. Bradley Arab News
JEDDAH, 25 June - A number of Western cells are presently operating in Saudi Arabia, both overtly and covertly, and have launched periodic assaults on the youth of the Kingdom in the months since the deadly Sept. 11 attacks on New York and Washington.
It is time that this matter was addressed with the sense of urgency and outrage it warrants.
The Westerners who make up these cells are experts in psychological terrorism.
Although there is reportedly intense rivalry among them, they are nevertheless bound together by their lack of ethics and blind loyalty to the lost cause of breathing life into a profession dying a quiet death in their home countries: serious, objective journalism.
These Western journalists are apparently motivated by their collective misconception that because 15 of the 19 hijackers on Sept. 11 were Saudis, normal life does not exist in what they so love to refer to as the "oil-rich" Kingdom.
The Western journalists typically enter the Kingdom under cover of pretending that they want to learn more about what goes on here, for the benefit of international relations and intercultural harmony.
However, once they arrive they immediately shed their flimsy masks.
High on having got in, they set about doing what they really came here to do: launch psychological assaults on the local Saudi population.
Their weapons are crude, but intellectually devastating: questions of the utmost stupidity.
They invariably leave their Saudi victims with a feeling of having been insidiously violated, and doubly distressed at their later realization that they were such willing victims.
After the initial assault, the victims are betrayed again.
Their polite but persistently objective and sensible answers are wildly distorted - indeed, not unusually completely reversed - in subsequent reports filed by the Western journalists for subtle propaganda purposes abroad.
This trend was brought to light last week when a Saudi teenage girl was found in tears after falling victim to a psychological terror attack by a foreign reporter, who had been walking around under cover of looking like a total and utter idiot completely unaware of why he had been sent by his newspaper to the Kingdom.
His operation, it must be admitted, was beautifully carried out: a polite handshake that was followed, after he was sure the female victim's trust had been earned, by a dramatic series of penetrating questions regarding her assumed oppression as a woman, her assumed Al-Qaeda sympathies, and her assumed personal adoration of someone called Osama Bin Laden the poor girl had in fact never given much thought to before.
She later recalled through her sobs that he did not so much listen to her answers as command her in a most dictatorial fashion to make stereotypical statements about Islam and other subjects he knew nothing about so he could later force feed them to his largely ignorant readers back in Britain.
His strategy was to make his victim seem as though she were crazy whenever she objected to his extraordinary and bizarre suppositions.
But that was just the first phase of his operation.
After requesting the help of an Arab News journalist, he headed straight for the Jeddah Corniche.
There he proceeded to cause pandemonium (not witnessed since last Eid) by asking locals settling down for a peaceful picnic about their presumed fondness for a man called Osama Bin Laden.
They tried in vain to explain that in fact they do not give much thought these days to that individual whose ideas and ideals have never been central to their culture and beliefs. They asked to be excused, because their little ones were not used to encountering people like this mad Westerner whose behavior was so outrageous and improper, and who seemed to have no morals whatsoever.
Sadly, by then their evening had been ruined.
Many other Saudi victims contacted by Arab News have reported similar assaults by this and other Western journalists.
Is it not time for the Saudi authorities to issue guidelines to young Saudis to be extra vigilant and exercise extreme caution in light of the reported psychological assaults on their brothers and sisters?
After all, the perpetrators are easy to single out from the crowd: they do not speak the local language, know nothing about the local culture or religion, and are not the slightest bit interested in the opinions of the locals.
It would, of course, be wrong to be alarmist.
In fact, the best advice for Saudi youths is that they should ignore anyone they think may be a member of a terror cell. Do not even look them in the eye!
After all, without the complicity of the victim, a psychological assault can never succeed.
[Your Editor had so many reactions to this article that its impossible to list them all. Here's a few.
-
Complacent chuckles at being proved right yet again. Your editor told his unbelieving South Asian friends that President Bush would make those who host terrorists pay a very high price for 9/11 - and President Bush has! Working through Mr. Tony Blair, his running dog, the mighty CIA infiltrated a British journalist into Jedda. The journalist was working "under cover of looking like a total and utter idiot" but he carried out Mr. Bush's punishment swiftly and without mercy: he actually made a Saudi teenage girl cry! This is a serious message to Osama Bin Laden and the House of Fahd: Don't mess with Texas or we'll make your girls cry.
- An immediate desire to learn in which universe this alternate Jedda was located, where a western foreigner can actually meet a Saudi teenage girl on the street, talk to her, shake her hand, win her trust, etc etc.
- Admiration at the Arab News staffer's cost effective way of coping with Western Terror. In the United States, people are looking a hole of $40 billion in their pockets for starters in the war against terror. In Saudi Arabia they have everything figured out, and it costs nothing: Just don't look a western journalist in the eye! After all, it worked for Perseus with Medusa.
- The casually paranoid thought that Arab News staffer John R. Bradley is actually one of those secret agents that Arab News staffer John R. Bradley is warning against. After all, the article makes Saudis look exceedingly stupid, not least because they are paying this John R. Bradley good money for making them look absurd. And whoever heard of a Saudi journalist named John R. Bradley? Sounds like a made-up name to us. Something definitely wrong here, but your Editor cant put his finger on it…
- The alarming thought that maybe Mr. Bradley has it all wrong: maybe the journo's cover of looking like a total and utter idiot was actually no cover!
Editor.]
Return To Top June 25, 2002
June 24, 2002
Israel chooses subjugation, not negotiation
The European terrorism review
News Briefs June 23
Our Ally, Our Problem:
Pakistan is an exceptionally hard case - here's what to do June 21
Letter to the Editor from Eric Brindle: "The US faces a century of conflict" June 20
Mechanics of a living bomb June 19
The "Buffer Zones" Myth June 19
The US Faces A Century Of Conflict June 18
Israel chooses subjugation, not negotiation
Written by Marcus Cohen, forwarded by our friends at AFI Research.
Sharon and the right-wing fundamentalist in the Israeli Cabinet are now
clearly in the ascendancy, Peres and those few other minister still seeking
a compromise have been very effectively sidelined. The Government 'Hawks'
have been arguing for the destruction of the Palestinian Authority and the
military re-occupation of all the Palestinian territory first captured in 1967
since Sharon, with a long and controversial career in the military was
elected as Prime Minister. The United States has so far managed to reign
in the most extreme military operations planned by Israel, but there is now
a growing suspicion that the CIA's patience has finally run out with their
long-term asset Yasser Arafat and that the Director of Central Intelligence,
George Tenet has lifted his opposition to the hard-liners in Washington and
their Israeli allies from either assassinating Arafat or at least driving him
into exile.
Arafat now with little power or influence left over his own people is highly
vulnerable and despite his well-earned reputation as the great 'escape-artist'
his time may now have expired. Arafat has alienated Hamas and important
parts of the Palestinian Security Forces, has little support left in the moderate
Arab States and has earned the outright enmity of Syria, Iraq and Iran. It is
now hard to see what Arafat can offer Jerusalem or Washington, or whether
he has the power to delivery a deal. Europe, despite constant US carping
about an overly pro-Palestinian stance is not likely to seriously get involved,
unless Israel is unwise enough to use overwhelming military force with
consequently very high civilian casualties. Even then there is little Europe
could do for Arafat in the face of determined joint US-Israeli action.
Peace still as far away as 54 years ago
However, this is just another example of political expediency and a shameful
unwillingness to face facts with no serious thought in either Washington or
Jerusalem for the long-term consequences of the destruction of the present
Palestinian regime. The Palestinians can be killed, imprisoned, starved and
subjugated, but the Israelis of all people, must be aware that the human spirit
cannot be destroyed. The right to a homeland and a sovereign state is the
inalienable right of all people, including the Palestinians. The problem remains
for Israel is that two determined peoples both claim the same piece of land
and seem no closer than 54 years ago to finding a way to live and work
together in peace.
Israel is losing the war against terrorism for the first time and no amount of
military force will prevent the Islamic extremists from taking the lives of
thousands more Israeli's, indeed all Jews around the world will increasingly
become the target for Islamic terrorists bent on exacting revenge for the
occupation of Palestine. Jewish businesses will undoubtedly be targeted as
will those of its international supporters and the question of just how long
Israel can stay on a war footing will be asked. Israel is bankrupt and only
massive infusions of US dollars is keeping it afloat. The stress that will be
put on an ailing economy, the holiday business and industry by thousands
of reservists being called up to occupy Palestinian territory is already
considerable. The threat to re-occupy more land and towns in response to
each new suicide bomb will only add to Israel's financial woes.
Arabs may challenge Israel on a worldwide economic battlefield
The Arab world is slowly, but dangerously building up a consensus on the
Palestinian issue. Both the United States and Israel are likely to become
the targets of increasing hostility and even Turkey may be hard pressed to
maintain its current relationship with Israel. The Arab states have three huge
advantages over Israel despite its military prowess, until now however a
co-ordinated and determined use of these has not occurred. The Arab nations
simply put, have a much greater combined population and the imbalance is
set to increase making Israel's continued survival somewhat problematical
should the Arab world find a way to successfully use this advantage in war,
but undoubtedly the biggest potential threat to Israel is America's need of
secure Middle Eastern oil supplies and the fact that if the Arab nations could
finally get their act together, they can outspend Israel many times over. There
is no reason to believe that those Arab analysts who argue that the chronic
inability to defeat Israel on the battlefield should not preclude the destruction
of Israel economically by challenging and destabilising Jewish business,
industry and its financial community on world-wide basis are not now winning
the attention of many Arab leaders including those of Saudi Arabia and other
oil rich states.
Washington's one-side commitment to Israel is seriously destabilizing its
relationship with the Muslim world and putting greater strain on its important
trans-Atlantic links with Europe.This level of American support for Sharon and
his Governments increasingly hard-line response to Islamic terrorists or
'Freedom Fighters' to many hundreds of millions of ordinary Muslims, is not in
the United States or in fact Israel's long term interests. However the cause of
peace does not appear to feature highly in Washington, Jerusalem,most of the
Arab States or even the UN at the moment. Though it is undoubtedly a sad
reflection on today's world, the Middle East situation is likely to get much
worse and the death toll significantly greater on all sides before horror and
dismay at the mindless slaughter finally concentrates sufficient minds to
allow a halt to this macabre 'dance of death' to be called.
Return To Top June 24, 2002
The European terrorism review
By NJV
In the last week or so terrorism has once again been the focus in several European countries, increasing the fear that there might be another wave of attacks looming somewhere inside and on the borders of the "old" continent. The Italian Interior Minister Claudio Scajola warned of a possible come back of Al-Qa'ida during a parliamentary hearing.
It remains clear and increasing obvious that while terrorism is tackled "manu militari" in Afghanistan and that a lot of the lines of communications and operations have been disrupted, the main terrorist networks in the other continents remains largely intact.
In the months after the 11 September attack it became clear that Osma Ben-Ladin's network was a worldwide web connecting not only his Al-Qa'ida organization but also other extremist organizations, non governmental organizations and official governmental institutions linking the terrorist scene throughout Europe and the world. While the extremists have had years of planning, the security services are having to quickly apply themselves to the problem, while still coping with the biggest internal threat to Europe which remains the left and right wing extremist groups. Though relatively easy to track, speaking the same languages and not usually as extreme in their dedication to 'the cause' as the Islamic fundamentalists, the fear remains their new found links with Al-Qa'ida with radicalise these movements and create a major threat to the stability of Europe.
In Germany a leading magazine rattled the cage of fear again when they posted an article stating that after the discovery of a possible planned nuclear attack on Washington by Al-Qa'ida terrorists, Germany had also been put on a higher state of alert yet again. The background is a memo from the BND or Federal Intelligence Service, according to which Al-Qa'ida commandos may be trying to bring down a departing or approaching jumbo jet over Frankfurt or some other major German city.
It could be a plausible scenario being quoted here by the magazine, however these type of articles also contribute to a general fear and Europe has learned in the 60s and 70s that a population in fear is also a dangerous thing. But the fact remains that this scenario is possible, especially at this moment where quantities of weapons have been smuggled out of area's of conflict on to the black market and to highlight this, in January a similar scenario was almost executed in Japan where a anti aircraft missile was fixed to a tree along with a timer on the flightpath to major airport.
The fact remains that Europe must not underestimate the danger of potential attacks.
Of immediate concern to Spain, rocked by two more ETA bombings, is the confirmed presence of Islamic terrorists in Morocco where six Al-Qa'ida members have been arrested and are currently being interrogated about their alleged plans to carry out bombings against the NATO fleet in Gibraltar and at US restaurants in Morocco. Three of the network members were arrested in Casablanca, while the others were arrested in Rabat. One of those detained is reported to be a relatively senior deputy to a leading Al-Qa'ida commander
The Al-Qa'ida terrorists arrested in Morocco in May were planning a simultaneous attack with suicide launches loaded with explosives against American and British ships in the bases at Rota, Cadiz, and Gibraltar. The planned attack had a format similar to the one aborted in April 2001 when the Moroccan secret services warned British SIS (MI6) about an imminent action by Islamic terrorists against the nuclear submarine HMS Tireless, moored in Gibraltar at the time.
According to the Spanish Intelligence and security services(CNI) Al Qa'ida has had a very strong base operating in Morocco over the last few years, they fear that the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in that country could lead it to become a breeding ground for terrorism. A base of operations in one of the North African countries would complete the axis of support from Sub Saharan Africa through Northern Africa into Europe and increase the extremists ability to penetrate much of
[North America? - email garbled...Editor].
Return To Top June 24, 2002
June 23, 2002
News Briefs
Time Reporter Worries He May Be Expelled From India
Our Ally, Our Problem:
Pakistan is an exceptionally hard case - here's what to do June 21
Letter to the Editor from Eric Brindle: "The US faces a century of conflict" June 20
Mechanics of a living bomb June 19
The "Buffer Zones" Myth June 19
The US Faces A Century Of Conflict June 18
News Briefs
London Times Says Saddam May Resign In Favor Of Uday
IRNA quotes the London Times as saying that Saddam Hussein is considering stepping down
as Iraqi head of state in favour of his younger son in an attempt to
counter the growing threat of US military attacks, a British daily
reported Saturday.
The aim
would be to deflate the American threat.
The Times suggested that although Saddam would remain de facto in
control, the tactic may satisfy the Americans or at least delay their
planned military action to change the regime in Baghdad.
It believed that the ploy would only be used as a last line of
defence, after all diplomatic options are exhausted and a new
conflict seemed inevitable.
But all diplomats were said not to hold the same view about the
prospect of Saddam relinquishing power voluntarily. At least one
thought that the Iraqi president "would prefer to die or see his
country destroyed."
Iraq is due to hold talks with the United Nations next month on
the return of weapons inspectors. Regardless of the outcome, some
analysts have suggested that US attacks are inevitable.
21 Killed In Pakistan Wedding Blast
IRNA reports that At least 21 people were killed and 13
others were injured on Saturday when a mortar shell blasted in a
wedding ceremony in Pakistan's tribal area, bordering Afghanistan,
witnesses said when one of the friends of the bridegroom
was firing in the air with heavy weapons to celebrate the marriage in
accordance with the tradition in Pakistan tribal areas.
The injured were shifted to Kohat Hospital. Some of the injured
are in critical condition. Doctors say the death toll may rise.
People in Pakistan tribal areas possess heavy weapons to defend
themselves in case of tribal conflicts. [US 2nd Amendment supporters please note. Editor.]
Mechanics of Failure:
On Israel's Inability to Scotch
Palestinian Suicide-Murder Assault
Even your editor, who is quite prepared to print reports about Area 51 and Elvis Sightings, find this 3-part Debka series a bit difficult to stomach. Israel is going through difficult times. Nonetheless, the jittery tankers who fired 120mm rounds to warn Palestinians they were violating curfew seem to have company in DebkaFile. We suggest our readers peruse the articles for themselves.
Pakistan To Move Against Major Tribal Leader
Pakistan's Frontier Post reports that:
The federal government has given a go ahead signal to law enforcing agencies to crack down on Nawab Akbar Bugti, chief of Jamhori Watan Party (JWP) and his accomplices who allegedly tried to blow gas pipeline. Helicopters, tanks, small planes, armored carriers and other ammunition have been moved towards the Sui Dera Bugti, signaling a grand operation in coming days.
It was a war like situation in the area as Balochistan Frontier corps and Tribesmen strengthened their respective positions, which created a threat of big clash, eyewitnesses said.
Sources informed that Inspector General FC also visited the area and reviewed the arrangements in this regard.
Sources in Baloch Tribe told Online, that following the decision of government, around 5000 tribesmen from Sindh, Punjab and Balochistan have reached Dera Bugti and they vowed to defend Nawab Akbar Bugti at all cost.
Another Potential Conflict Building?
Pakistan's Frontier Post carries this article by Gordon Geller:
Tensions that some experts think could escalate to military conflict are building around the Caspian.
Economic competition for valuable undersea oil and gas resources revolves around disputed territories.
The inter-state conflicts are forcing foreign investors to hold off on some critical multi-billion dollar investments.
This has become particularly worrisome to the likes of ChevronTexaco, ExxonMobil and BP who are anxiously monitoring these disputes now that they have been exacerbated by increasingly complex political circumstances inside each one of the five littoral states: Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan.
Iran represents the most complicated situation, and the effects of their moves are being seen in an especially harsh light by the other four governments.
After several failed attempts to resolve territorial issues with its Caspian neighbours, Iran appears poised to begin developing unilaterally its energy resources in its portion of the sea.
For the rest of the article, please click Frontier Post.
Return To Top June 23, 2002
June 22, 2002
Time Reporter Worries He May Be Expelled From India
Another Day in Jammu and Kashmir: 17 killed in held Kashmir Gunbattles
Another Day in Palestine:10 Palestinians killed as Israel hunts militants
Our Ally, Our Problem:
Pakistan is an exceptionally hard case - here's what to do June 21
Letter to the Editor from Eric Brindle: "The US faces a century of conflict" June 20
Mechanics of a living bomb June 19
The "Buffer Zones" Myth June 19
The US Faces A Century Of Conflict June 18
Time Reporter Worries He May Be Expelled From India
[We thought a little light subject matter might be in order after all the grim stuff we publish and discuss. Your editor does not want to be rude to an honorable, intelligent, and patriotic leader of his country, but for the life of him he cannot figure how it makes the slightest difference if the Prime Minister is healthy and competent or not. The Indian Prime Minister is not like the American President. He has to govern by consensus, and on defense and foreign affairs the bureaucrats have to agree to any action because none of the politicians bar Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh can tell the front end of a tank from its back end. On one matter the Time reporter is a bit unfair. A three-hour afternoon nap in India is not unheard of for the healthiest of people. People get up between 4 and 5 in the morning, work till 1 or 2 in the afternoon, sleep a second shift, and then are back at work from 6 to 11 or midnight. As for the ramblings and silences, anyone who has to deal with a bunch of Indian politicians and Indian national security decision-makers day in and night out may be excused a little madness. The Government of India is just putting itself into a snit for nothing. Editor.]
Reported by Reuters in the Times of India.
A British journalist working for Time magazine said on Friday he feared he would be expelled from India over an article he wrote questioning the health of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee.
Alex Perry, 32, said Indian authorities had begun investigating alleged passport irregularities after the publication of the article. He denied any irregularities.
The article, carried by Time's Asian edition and headlined 'Asleep at the Wheel?', asked whether the 77-year-old Vajpayee was well enough to run India during a military standoff with nuclear rival Pakistan.
Vajpayee's office protested to Time about the article, saying Vajpayee was fit and well and that the story was in bad taste, "designed to tarnish the Prime Minister's image".
"We stand by the story," Perry said.
He met Indian visa officials on Friday after an Indian newspaper published a story saying that the passport he had used to enter India was different from one with his Indian visa.
Perry, who is married, arrived in India on April 1.
Perry said he carried three passports, but two were additions to the original passport, granted because the first, and then second, were full of visas.
He was due to meet visa officials again on Monday when he expected a decision on whether to allow him to stay in India, adding that he feared he could be expelled.
"This is the subject of an investigation being conducted by the home ministry...I believe there has been no harassment," foreign ministry spokeswoman Nirupama Rao told reporters.
"But the fact is on that article the government of India has issued a very strong rejoinder and we stand completely by that reaction and that rejoinder. It was an ill-informed and ill-advised article. It was completely without foundation."
In a letter to Time magazine, Vajpayee's spokesman Ashok Tandon said the Prime Minister's Office had taken "strong exception" to the report.
"Comments such as 'He takes a three-hour snooze every afternoon on doctor's orders and is given to interminable silences, indecipherable ramblings and not infrequently falling asleep in meetings' are baseless," it said.
It added that those who were familiar with the rigour of Indian politics could vouch for Vajpayee's fitness.
Return To Top June 22, 2002
Another Day in Jammu and Kashmir: 17 killed in held Kashmir Gunbattles
"Held Kashmir" is what Pakistan calls Indian Kashmir. India calls Pakistani Kashmir "Pakistan Occupied Kashmir". From Pakistan's Daily Jang
HELD SRINAGAR: Violence flared in held Kashmir with 17 people, including 15 rebels, killed in separate gunbattles, officials said on Friday.
The number of deaths in a 24-hour period was the highest since last Sunday when 21 people were killed. A police spokesman said three members of the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen militant group were killed near the Line of Control in Hafrada forests of Kupwara district.
Earlier, in an overnight gunbattle between army and separatist guerrillas, three militants of Hizb-ul-Mujahideen group were killed in the neighbouring district of Baramulla. An army official and two separatist guerrillas were killed in another gunbattle in Baramulla district on Thursday evening, police said.
They said two soldiers were also injured in the armed encounter. Suspected rebels on Friday morning shot dead a senior activist of Kashmir's ruling National Conference party in north Kashmir. Elsewhere Indian soldiers shot dead seven militants in separate shootouts.
Return To Top June 22, 2002
Another Day in Palestine:10 Palestinians killed as Israel hunts militants
Also from Pakistan's Daily Jang.
JERUSALEM: Israel decided on Friday to press ahead with its reoccupation of West Bank self-rule towns, as 10 more Palestinians were killed in the army's hunt for militants after a wave of anti-Israeli violence.
Faced with mounting Palestinian attacks, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's security cabinet decided troops would remain inside Palestinian self-rule towns as long as it takes to put an end to suicide bombings and shooting rampages, government sources said.
In 72 hours, three Palestinian attacks have cost 31 Israeli lives, as well as two soldiers killed in fighting in the West Bank. On the Palestinian side, the death toll rose to 17 since Tuesday.
Israeli troops had taken over all or parts of six of the main West Bank Palestinian towns by Friday - Nablus, Jenin, Qalqilya, Beitunia, Bethlehem and Tulkarem - but the army's presence appeared only to fuel the bloodshed.
Although the cycle of violence has stalled a US peace initiative, Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat issued a call for "no more war" and said he believed he could reach a peace agreement with hard-liner Sharon. In an interview with the Israeli daily Haaretz, Arafat said that "enough is enough" and that he now accepted a framework for peace first made by former US president Bill Clinton.
The plan does not include a right of return of Palestinian refugees to their old homes in Israel, a demand that has long been central to his negotiating stance. On the ground, five Palestinians, all but one of them children, were killed as Israeli troops and Palestinian gunmen battled in Jenin. Hospital officials said a six-year-old boy and a seven-year-old girl were killed along with the deputy director of the city's education department who was aged around 50. Twenty-six people were wounded, they said.
The army opened tank fire on a group of people who "broke the curfew" on the city of Jenin, where soldiers were carrying out "house to house searches in search of an explosive lab," the army said.
The Israeli army said it fired two tank shells to warn away a group of Palestinians who violated the curfew in Jenin, and approached them as the troops searched for a bomb factory. "As a result of the shooting three Palestinians were killed and 10 others were wounded. An initial inquiry indicates that the force erred in its action," an army statement said.
Before dawn, a 13-year-old Palestinian boy was killed and five members of his family wounded in Jenin when Israeli soldiers blew up a house close to their own, a Palestinian hospital source said.
Hours earlier, a Palestinian gunman killed five Israelis - a 40-year-old woman, three of her six children, aged between five and 15, and a security guard - in a West Bank Jewish settlement, prompting Israel to send tanks into Nablus. The Palestinian gunman was shot dead by soldiers, the army said.
Despite the flexing of its muscle, the army failed to police a band of Itamar settlers who killed a Palestinian after they attended the funeral for the five settlers shot dead.
Israeli forces also shot dead an eight-year-old Palestinian boy in a raid in the Gaza Strip after an Israeli was seriously wounded in an attack by militants near the Jewish settlement of Netzarim.
Israeli troops shot dead a militant in the Gaza Strip who attacked them with hand grenades at the Erez crossing point where Palestinian labourers gather for security checks before entering an Israeli industrial area. Two of the workers were also killed. A boy died after being hitting in the chest by heavy machine-gun fire that strafed his house south of Gaza City.
The army rounded up 400 Palestinian men aged between 15 and 50 in the village of Wadi Birkin near Jenin and took them to a nearby military base, Palestinian security sources said.
The suicide bombers who have stood in the way of peace efforts found understanding in an unlikely quarter on Friday. Israeli Defence Minister Binyamin Ben Eliezer acknowledged that the bombers were motivated in part by "misery and frustration", in an interview published by Haaretz daily. "At the moment of the crisis, someone from one of these death organisations comes and seduces them," said Ben Eliezer.
Return To Top June 22, 2002
June 21, 2002
Our Ally, Our Problem:
Pakistan is an exceptionally hard case - here's what to do
Middle East Debate - Time For Plain Speaking June 20
Assassination - A Two Edged Weapon June 20
Letter to the Editor from Eric Brindle: "The US faces a century of conflict"
Mechanics of a living bombJune 19
The "Buffer Zones" Myth June 19
The US Faces A Century Of Conflict June 18
Al Qaeda Gathering Strength in Pakistan June 18
Our Ally, Our Problem:
Pakistan is an exceptionally hard case - here's what to do
Forwarded by Johann Price,
By Marin J. Strmecki From the July 1, 2002, issue of National Review.
[Many of us cynical Indians - we prefer to be called realistic - will exclaim: "Gosh, these Americans are so naïve!" on reading this article. The question is not the naiveté of the Americans, but do we have any better ideas? Judged from the level of debate in the Indian media and forums so far, the best we've been able to come up with is: "President Musharraf can not be trusted, when are the Americans ever going to learn, why don't they they just dump Pakistan and him?"
Lets suppose for a moment that the Americans are really all-mighty and can dump anyone at will, Castro and Saddam Hussain notwithstanding. What then? Pakistan is a nation of 160 million. How can any outsider bring about the changes required to return this country to the comity of nations? Only a Pakistani can do that. The Americans are not counting on President Musharraf to do the needful - diplomacy has its own language and the Americans have to be polite in public. All they are counting on him to do is to make the interim moves necessary for Pakistan to return to civilian rule. When that happens, they will help the civilians to reign in the army. Then Pakistan has a real chance. Undoubtedly things are going to stink for a while: Ms. Benazir Bhutto, that corrupt product of Oxford and Harvard, is trying to position herself as President Musharrif's successor, and she smells no sweeter than he. A journey of a thousand kilometers begins with a single step, and the Americans are taking those first steps. Indians have everything figured out before the destination is announced, so they never even start.
Which may be why we Indians are sitting around debating while the Americans are doing our dirty work for us. If we have nothing to contribute, we should have the grace to watch quietly while they try their best. Oh yes - and six months isn't going to be enough. Its taken us 13 years to get no where in Kashmir. Lets give the Americans at least that much time before we resume our criticism. And none of the above implies in any way that your editor is endorsing the plan and approach below. He has no ideas but one, which is to reintegrate Pakistan into a new India, call it what you like, but few like his idea. Since he has nothing to contribute to the debate, he's going to watch from the sidelines. He suggests his fellow country people seriously think of doing the same. Editor.]
As the Bush administration moves into the next phases of the war against terrorism, it will need to confront a profoundly difficult problem: Pakistan is at the same time an indispensable partner in that war and a principal and continuing source of the terrorist threat. The al Qaeda network, created in Pakistan in 1989, was nurtured by Islamists in the Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI) and the military. Ultimate victory in the current conflict will require a concerted strategy to purge the Pakistani government of the elements that facilitated the rise of al Qaeda.
The genesis of Pakistan's role in the jihadist terror network was President Zia ul-Haq's shift toward Islamist ideology in the 1980s. Interpreted in the West merely as an attempt to legitimize his military rule, Zia's adoption of Islamist views was in fact part of a wider political and geostrategic vision: He sought to use radical Islam to conquer Afghanistan through proxy forces and to create an alliance with states such as Iran and Saudi Arabia. The objective was to create an Islamist coalition - one that combined Pakistani nuclear weapons and the oil wealth of the Persian Gulf - that would serve as a "dagger" aimed at India and that would expand its influence into Central Asia.
By the early 1980s, the ISI was busily executing Zia's vision. U.S. aid to the Afghan resistance was channeled overwhelmingly to fundamentalist groups within that movement. A partnership was struck between the ISI and Saudi Arabia's intelligence service to fund a program to bring jihadists to Pakistan from throughout the Islamic world, to be trained in paramilitary tactics and to participate in the war in Afghanistan. Osama bin Laden took up residence in Peshawar in 1984 to run the so-called Services Office that facilitated the involvement of foreign fighters; it was this office that eventually morphed into al Qaeda. At the same time, Saudi money supported the creation of thousands of madrassas (religious schools) in Pakistan, whose best graduates were to be recruited into the jihadist movement.
In the mid 1990s, these efforts culminated in the ISI's forging the alliance between al Qaeda and the Taliban regime, itself a client-state of Pakistan. The ISI arranged the initial meetings between bin Laden and Mullah Omar, brokered their partnership, and facilitated the fusion of their military and paramilitary organizations. The ISI benefited from the arrangement by training Kashmiri guerrillas in the al Qaeda camps in Afghanistan.
While President Pervez Musharraf replaced the leaders of the ISI after September 11, evidence suggests that the Islamist elements associated with the agency are not reconciled to defeat. Hamid Gul, the former head of the ISI who is said to retain influence over the true believers in the agency, has vocally opposed Musharraf's cooperation with the United States. Al Qaeda operatives and leaders - including the recently arrested Abu Zubaida and perhaps even bin Laden - have been hiding in safe houses in Pakistan, many of which were established under the auspices of the ISI.
The threat in Pakistan stems not from popular support for the Islamist cause - radical parties typically receive 5 percent of the vote in national elections - but from Islamist influence in the military and intelligence services. Therefore, the U.S. response should focus on finding points of leverage to purge this influence and on returning Pakistan to the moderate and secular path from which it departed under Zia.
Musharraf is a vital - but profoundly flawed - vehicle for such a strategy. He was the leader of Pakistan's reckless military adventure at Kargil in 1999 and was involved in Islamist charities that funneled support to al Qaeda. At the beginning of the current war, he only reluctantly supported the United States, describing his decision as the lesser of two evils. Yet as a result of this choice, he has crossed the Rubicon. The Islamists in his government and society view him as a traitor; he cannot go back. This means that the United States is in an ideal position to enforce its demands on him.
To date, the Bush administration's strategy vis - vis Pakistan has fluctuated between living in denial about Islamabad's role in terrorism and playing hardball by levying non-negotiable demands on its leader. What is needed is a rollback strategy - one that offers help to address the internal and external pressures on Musharraf's government at the price of cleaning out the Islamist influences in key institutions.
First, the United States should do what is necessary to destroy the dream of a rising Islamist coalition that has animated Pakistani radicals since Zia. While the destruction of the Taliban regime was a vital first step, the United States should work to ensure that a moderate, pro-Western regime takes power and succeeds in Afghanistan. The United States should also use its influence with such a government to promote friendly relations with Pakistan and ease Islamabad's fear of a two-front threat from India and Afghanistan.
The last hope of Islamist opponents of Musharraf is to stage a comeback in Afghanistan through a Pashtun nationalist backlash against the Tajik-dominated interim government created under U.S. power. The danger is real if the Bush administration fails to adjust its policies. Yet if the United States uses the current Afghan tribal assembly to redistribute control over the power ministries - and particularly if it creates a nonpolitical and professional military - the likelihood of a Taliban comeback will be substantially undercut.
At the same time, the United States should use the current crisis between Islamabad and New Delhi to destroy the prospects that Pakistan can make gains in Kashmir by employing Islamist paramilitary groups. In recent weeks, President Bush has rightly insisted that Musharraf live up to his pledges of last December to shut down the ISI-created Kashmiri insurgent organizations operating in Pakistan. Musharraf's backsliding on those commitments - for example, by arresting and then releasing the radical Islamists behind these movements or by recreating them under new names - led to the current crisis.
Because Pakistan cannot win a war with India, Musharraf is in a box. The United States should intervene diplomatically to ease his predicament, but exact a price for its help. Furthermore, the Bush administration should also make clear that the U.S. will address Islamabad's interest in resolving the Kashmir question in the future only if the Islamist insurgencies are permanently curtailed. By these actions, the United States can demonstrate that Zia's Islamist vision for achieving greatness for Pakistan is a dead end.
Second, the United States should engage Musharraf in an effort to purge Pakistan's military and intelligence services of dangerous influences. Below the senior leadership, the ISI remains a hornet's nest of radical Islamists. This state within a state has close ties with retired ISI personnel - particularly those around Hamid Gul - and Islamist political parties. They appear to be trying to foment general insecurity in order to reduce the Western presence that serves to support Musharraf's government. The recent attacks on churches, the murder of Daniel Pearl, and the fatal bombing of French engineers may stem from this strategy. Their hope is that, once isolated, Musharraf will be more easily toppled through a combination of street protests and an internal coup.
Third, the Bush administration should be far more generous in offering to help rebuild Pakistan's secular school system. The thousands of madrassas in Pakistan funded by Saudi Arabia create a breeding ground for Islamist opposition to Musharraf and recruits for the international jihadist movement. The initial $36.5 million U.S. aid program is just a down payment on what is needed.
Fourth, the United States needs to look for ways to restore civilian and constitutional rule in Pakistan without destabilizing the country. Though Pakistan has always been a difficult partner even under civilian governments, the natural allies for the United States are its secular political parties, not the generals with imperial aspirations. The process of transition should be structured so that Musharraf has the burden of dismantling the Islamist presence in the Pakistani government, ending ISI interference in domestic politics, and creating the mechanisms for genuine civilian control over national-security policy. Only then will a shift to civilian rule involve a genuine transfer of power.
A strategy for rollback of Islamist power in Pakistan is as important as the defeat of the Taliban regime. The Taliban and al Qaeda - both created in Pakistan with the assistance of the ISI - were manifestations of a radical political project that has not yet been fully defeated. Stability in the region - and victory in the war against terrorism - can only come once the imperial dream of Zia ul-Haq has finally died.
- Marin J. Strmecki is vice president and director of programs at the Smith Richardson Foundation.
Return To Top June 21, 2002
June 20, 2002
Middle East Debate - Time For Plain Speaking
Assassination - A Two Edged Weapon
Letter to the Editor from Eric Brindle: "The US faces a century of conflict"
Mechanics of a living bombJune 19
The "Buffer Zones" Myth June 19
The US Faces A Century Of Conflict June 18
Al Qaeda Gathering Strength in Pakistan June 18
Middle East debate - time for plain speaking
Richard M. Bennett
It has not been quite normal service for the pro-Israeli media machine this
week, The British Prime Ministers wife, Cherie Blair was honest enough to
make a perfectly fair remark that it is a pity that so many young
Palestinians feel they have little alternative to wrapping explosives around
their body and killing yet more Israelis. Surely every bereaved Israeli
family would echo that view? Ted Turner owner of CNN went further accusing
both Israel and the Palestinians of using terrorist tactics, bringing a
storm of abuse from the Jewish lobby upon his head.
Why this highly charged sensitivity by Israel and its supporters?
Israel is a state founded largely on a very successful terrorist campaign
by the Stern Gang and the Irgun against British Servicemen and civilians.
Israel must be one of the few modern, supposedly democratic nations that
has elected two wanted terrorists Begin and Shamir and a third accused of
something akin to war crimes by his own Government Sharon, to the
office of Prime Minister.
Israel has used assassination and terror-like tactics throughout the Middle
East and Europe for much of the last forty years, without too much complaint
or interference from its Western supporters. Israel has stolen nuclear
materials, attacked a US Navy vessel killing many Americans on board, shot
down civilian aircraft, launched an air attack on Iraqi nuclear facilities
at a time when the Baghdad regime was still seen as a valuable Western ally,
spied on the United States, ignored countless UN resolutions and many
other actions which if carried out by a Muslim nation would have brought a
violent and angry response from Washington and London.
Even-handed approach is the only way forward
However, admitting the truth about Israel should not be seen as excusing or
encouraging Islamic terrorism. None of the Arab nations are exactly peons of
virtue, dedicated to democracy, the protection of civil rights or the
emancipation of women. Many in the Arab world are racist demagogues,
their nations dictatorships with an appalling record of human abuse and
a record of stupidity and intransigence when it comes to diplomatic efforts
to solve the problems of Palestine and over the acceptance of Israel as part
of the Middle East community of nations.
Both the Palestinians and the Israelis are at heart sophisticated and
reasonable people. They both have much to offer each other and the region as
a whole. However, the similarities don't just end there. Both are bloody
minded, vengeful and willing to use extreme violence against each other. The
most constructive change in attitude amongst Western Governments and the
news Media would be to take a more even handed approach to the problems of
the Middle East, in other words stop taking sides. Washington has a vital
role to play as a honest broker in future peace negotiations, but to achieve
the maximum benefit, trust between America and the Palestinians and the
wider Arab world must be quickly restored.
To be frank that is unlikely to happen while the Bush administration is so
obviously being 'bossed' by right-wing Zionists and in truth the US
Government has now lost virtually all credibility outside Israel and a few
Arab client states. Whether Colin Powell and the few remaining level-headed
members of the current administration can still finally produce a viable and
balanced approach to the immense and threatening problems of the region will
determine the chances of a lasting peace for a generation or more.
Time for peace running out
The signs are not good from the USA nor in Israel's response to the latest
Islamic terrorist outrage. Israel has been in illegal occupation of large
areas of Arab land for 35 years and it has not brought the Jews peace or
security. The building of a new Berlin-wall style security zone and the
Israeli threat to virtually annexe an additional area of Palestinian land
every time a suicide bomber strikes is madness. Will it be 10 or perhaps
30 more suicide bombings before Israel has seized the entire West Bank?
Israel will be left with a permanent security problem as the occupying
power with no remaining options for a negotiated settlement and the
growing enmity of the entire Muslim world.
Time is running out quickly for Washington's efforts to find a way out of
this impasse, and Iraq, Iran, Syria and the War on Terrorism are still
waiting their turn.
Return To Top June 20, 2002
Assassination - a two edged weapon
Richard M. Bennett
President Bush has recently signed an intelligence order authorizing the CIA and related Special forces to overthrow, capture or indeed kill the leader of a foreign country. The fact alone that the President of a sovereign nation can be targeted in such a way by the 'leading democratic defender of international law' is surprising enough. The fact that the last US President to be so rash as to openly target a major foreign leader was to die in a well planned assassination in November 1963 which many expert observers still believe to have been directly linked to CIA attempts to murder Fidel Castro, should have been sufficient to cause a greater degree of caution in The Whitehouse.
By agreeing to allow the use of lethal force against President Saddam Hussein and indeed the terrorist leader Osama Bin Ladin, strangely both former close allies of the United States, President Bush has opened the flood gates of possible retaliation in kind against himself, his direct family, close colleagues and every member of the US political community both in the United States and around the world. Nor will the American business community, sports and entertainment celebrities and ordinary tourists be immune from revenge attacks.
Morality and legality - not questioned after 9-11
Targeted assassination has thankfully remained a rarity in the international 'great game' and with few exceptions such as the British sponsored assassination of Reinhard Heydrich and the US killing of Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto during World War Two, leaders such as Churchill, Roosevelt and Truman fought shy of attempting to assassinate Adolf Hitler or later Stalin. For the very sensible reason that retaliation was certain. The lesson of a weakness for executive action possibly leading to a monumental 'blowback' has obviously not been fully understood by the present US administration.
President Saddam Hussein, or his nominated successors will undoubtedly retaliate and following recent clandestine meetings of the regional operational commanders of Islamic Jihad believed to have been held in Algeria and Austria, it is becoming increasing clear that Al Qa'ida in particular are now likely to directly target the US leadership, as well as other high profile personalities. In a largely free society and despite the recent security clampdown it will still prove quite impossible to guarantee that President Bush or his successors will not suffer a similar fate to the Kennedy brothers.
The question of morality or even the legality of planning the assassination of a foreign national, let alone the leadership, has been easily and quickly forgotten in the aftermath of 9-11. However, the effects of this decision by President Bush will probably directly influence global intelligence operations, worsen security problems and hinder the work of the diplomatic community long after George W. Bush is consigned to history. For once assassination becomes a matter of state policy, as it already appears to be in Israel, then the normal interflow of negotiation and trust between sovereign states or even with dissident and warring groups will become neigh-on impossible. The damage that will almost certainly do to the chances of a long-term improvement in international relations is quite incalculable.
Return To Top June 20, 2002
Letter to the Editor from Eric Brindle: "The US faces a century of conflict"
"The US faces a century of conflict." This is news?? One is almost tempted to answer the entire article simply, with the old line: "War, like the poor, will always be with us". Please note that war and poor are interchangeable for placement in that sentence. One might also ask questions like: "After this century, will we have perpetual peace??, or, "What 100 year period in the past have we not had at least one war?? ".
Regarding environmental problems, Russia, along with the other old Soviet states, China, and much of third world are busy destroying their own nests without US help. Chernobal anyone?? Clear-cut forest cutting?? Whining by the "usual suspects" about us horrible Americans to wheedle some sort of concessions out of us will be a constant, despite the US having the lowest pollution per unit of production. Foreigners should "Think Globally, and act locally"; world pollution problems might actually improve. Regarding problems in the third world, Europe should lead the way by abandoning it's socialist ways and tell the 3rd worlders to do the same.
One looks world wide, and notices that the US is spending money on R&D of various sorts as well as on the military, that is multiples of not just any one other country, but groups of countries. Do you think that Europe, facing it's pension crisis and mired in socialism will suddenly up it's military R&D, to say nothing of expanding it's military to the point of projecting serious power against US targets?? A Russian Empire, built on the rubble of the Soviet one, will be more of a threat then the Soviets?? A Chinese powerhouse (and don't hold your breath) won't be butting up against an Indian one, as well as the Japanese and Russians?? Regional conflict will allow the US to have regional friends; although these may shift around with time. The probability is that the US is better positioned to play these countries off against each other then them all ganging up on the US.
Return To Top June 20, 2002
June 19, 2002
Mechanics of a living bomb
The "Buffer Zones" Myth
The US Faces A Century Of Conflict June 18
Al Qaeda Gathering Strength in Pakistan June 18
Mechanics of a living bomb
This is the first of two articles from our editor Kirill's own website, www.waronline.org. Kirill rarely translates his work into English, which is our loss. Please visit the site to see the very informative pictures: your editor is slow at webbing and would not have made tonight's schedule if he had also provided the pictures.
PREPARATION OF A SUICIDE BOMBER
Contrary to popular opinion claiming that for suicide terrorist act just one terrorist is enough, there are several people involved in the process of preparing the human bomb for explosion. Usually, they make up a team for serial production of living bombs.
First of all, there is a Recruiter that finds and selects suitable candidates for journey to "paradise".
In the nineties, when religious terrorist organizations, such as the Hamas and the Islamic Jihad, were the primary sources for suicide bombers, the main pool of future suicide-bombers was a mosque, and a recruiter was a person that was connected to that mosque in one way or another. Now, when the secular terrorist organizations, such as Arafat's FATAH/Tanzim or People's Front for Liberation of Palestine, employ suicide bombers too, the recruitment can take place anywhere, from hospitals or restaurants to schools and even kindergartens - the youngest suicide bomber arrested by Israeli security services is just 13 years old, the youngest who blew up was 16. Also, palestinian militants often use small children to ferry weapons and explosives, for example in Jenin a 6 year old boy stopped by IDF soldiers had several grenades, AK magazines and other ammunition in his backpack.
Further on down the chain, there is an Agent, who has to select the target of a terrorist act and to collect information about it. Again, contrary to popular opinion, terrorist's choice of their objective is far from random. The Agent is usually a Palestinian Arab with a work permit in Israel, or less often an Israeli Arab. The Agent often works or had worked in the target location - such as a restaurant, a hotel or a banquet hall.
The Engineer prepares the bomb and its separate components.
The Mule, who brings the terrorist closer to his target is sometimes an Israeli Arab, more often a Palestinian with work permit. Usually he is not a member of a terrorist organization, but an experienced car-thief, well familiar with the Israeli society. A car with an Israeli number makes all movements in the country much easier. Such thief also knows all the roads very well and is experienced in escaping from the police.
The Planner, who commands the operation is the leader of the group, an active member of a terrorist organization (Hamas, Fatah etc.) who is the "field captain" of the terrorists. In addition to him, there is often another person who deals with the finances of the operation.
Of course, it is not a hard and fast structure. Often a single person performs several tasks, for example, recruitment and command, or, vice versa several terrorists work on the same task. The bomb is usually constructed by two or three people - the head "engineer" and his assistants.
THE EXPLOSIVE
Palestinians use two main types of explosive: "home-made" TATP (triacetone triperoxide) and TNT (trinitrotoluene) which is taken out of old mines and shells or brought in illegally from abroad.
Acetone peroxide is an explosive most widely available and the simplest in preparation. Its components can be easily bought in any household store without provoking suspicion - oxygen peroxide is used for bleaching hair, acetone is used for nail polish, as a solvent or (in a solution with sulfur acid) as electrolyte. But preparation of acetone peroxide is rather dangerous, besides it must be compressed for better detonation, which can cause an explosion by itself. The plastification of acetone peroxide ("cooking" the explosive to form it as needed when it becomes cold) is a very dangerous process, too.
That's why there are always burns on Palestinian "engineers'" bodies, and sometimes body parts - fingers, hands - are missing.
But with all the disadvantages of a dangerous (for the terrorist) preparation, acetone peroxide has one definite advantage over other types of explosives - it cannot be discovered by dogs. Specially trained dogs (including dogs that were recently bought by Israel in USA) can discover explosives such as ammonal, plastic explosives, hexogen - but not acetone peroxide.
Sometimes Palestinian terrorists use acetone peroxide as an initiating explosive, and ammonal, which is simpler and less dangerous in preparation as the main explosive. "Homemade" ammonal is actually ammonia nitrate mixed with coal and aluminum powder. The ammonal, compressed and mixed in proper quantities, is a simple explosive that can be detonated by acetone peroxide. That way, less of the hazardous acetone peroxide is required, or the same quantity can be used for several bombs.
Palestinians use simple light bulbs as detonators - it is enough to break the glass and coat the wire with any easily flammable material. When the light bulb is turned on, the wire is instantly heated and the bomb detonates. It was recently mentioned in the media that a certain English doctor who worked in Jenin discovered Palestinian bombs with detonators made out of light bulbs. From this he concluded that the Palestinians were trained by IRA fighters. In fact, a light bulb is the simplest and the most widely available type of detonator and there is no need to be an IRA fighter to prepare it.
TNT or other industrially manufactured explosive comes to Palestinians in several ways, mostly by smuggling: from Jordan by land, from Lebanon to Gaza by sea, or via underground tunnels from Egypt to Rafah. Other sources of explosives are old mines, shells and bombs that are found on firing ranges and old Israeli mine fields. Finally, there are stolen explosives from Israeli stocks, though they are much harder to get then for example small arms.
Though TNT is stronger than acetone peroxide, it has a serious disadvantage - it cannot be plastified in home conditions, which is why it is much less convenient for the suicide-bomber. Often, when using tolite, terrorists don't wear belts, but take a sack or a suitcase. With TNT real detonators must be used.
Sometimes terrorists get a hold of even stronger explosives, such as C4 or other plastic explosives. C4 is significantly stronger than acetone peroxide and some 20% stronger than TNT. By its consistency C4 resembles Play Dough, so it is easy to make a bomb of any form out of it, and to hide it under the clothes. Luckily, plastic explosives are more difficult to obtain than others of the abovementioned types, which is why terrorists seldom have the opportunity to use it.
For illustration on the captured "Karin-A" ship there were more than two tons of explosives, TNT and C4.
THE BOMB
A primitive bomb usually consists of several cylinders, often cut parts of metallic water pipes, filled with explosives and fragments , that are connected by a wire to a trigger, the "red button", that is usually located in the suicide bomber's pocket, or on his chest. The cylinders are hung or packed in an inner lining of a jacket, that is worn under the clothes. It is a very simple and effective device.
A more sophisticated kind is made out of plastified explosive, and consists of "plates" of explosive, that are packed into a jacket or into a lining of a coat.
The "fragmentation jacket" consists of steel balls, screws, nuts and pieces of thick wire.
THE SHRAPNEL
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The main killing power of any bomb is not the explosion itself (the shock wave is rather small because of small quantity of explosives used) but the fragments of its jacket, which are launched in all directions by the explosion. In air force bombs and in many types of artillery shells the pieces are formed out of the steel casing, which is split into small pieces in an explosion.
In anti-personnel tank shells and in some kinds of artillery shells part of the internal payload is dedicated to shrapnel- such a shell is filled with several thousand of needles ("flechettes"). Sometimes these flechettes are made of plastic, which do not show up on x-rays. Palestinian terrorists realized this principle long ago and use it widely. More than 90% of the victims injured are hit by the bomb shrapnel.
The most widely used and the most dangerous shrapnel consists of ball bearings 3-7 millimeters in diameter. In the most severe terrorist acts - in the Delfinarium, Sbarro, in the banquet hall in Netania - the bombs of the suicide-bombers were filled with steel balls.
In an explosion, the balls are launched with such speed, that their power is close to a bullet's. You could say that in an explosion the suicide-bomber shoots several hundred bullets in a single moment.
Aside from steel balls, nails, screws and so on, nuts and washers are also used. Nuts are easily glued together to form tiny plates that can be pressed in, or even tied by a tape to the plates of the explosive to hide it better. Likewise, nuts are also stringed on a thread or on a piece of wire, as shown on the photographs.
Return To Top June 19, 2002
The "Buffer Zones" Myth
By Uri Kaplan, Kirill
www.waronline.org
A few days ago, Israel has begun the construction of "buffer zones" between Israel proper and the Palestinian territories, approximately along the 1967 border line - "the green line". Those zones are supposed to protect Israeli citizens from Palestinian infiltrators' attacks, including suicide bombers. According to recent information, the width of those "buffer zones" will be 4 km along the so-called "green line" (wherever it is possible) and 10-15 km in the Jordan valley.
In the following article we will try to explain what are those buffer zones and how effective they can be.
The first thought that comes to mind, when speaking of "buffer zones" and "demarcation lines", is a fence. And indeed, the fence is one of the most important elements of the buffer zone, but not the only one.
The main components of the "buffer zone"
1. The fence.
Normally, the fence is made from metal, consisting of complex system of tension sensors. The sensors react to any significant disturbance of the fence, either an attempt to penetrate it or to break the integrity of the system itself. When such an attempt is detected, a signal is passed to the observation station automatically. Fences can be built in several rows and include, besides the sensors, electric current running through the fence as well as several rows of barbed wire.
However, in several areas of the future "buffer zones", apparently as a cost cutting measure, a concrete wall is being constructed instead of the usual "gader maarehet" - "system fence" as described above. This has some advantages - obviously, the cost is lower, and it's much harder to penetrate a wall made out of concrete blocks. However, there is one serious drawback - unlike with the "system fence", the sensors will not immediately detect any successful penetration of the wall.
2. Observation systems
Miscellaneous means of surveillance of the area close to the fence. First, there are night and day video cameras located on pylons above the fence itself. The cameras broadcast to observation station, where operators, who observe the barrier and the nearby area, are located. Besides the video cameras, installation of other sensors is also possible, including infrared cameras, even radars. The key factor is cost, which limits placement of the more sophisticated sensors.
To compensate for the lack of money, small aerostats and pilotless drone aircraft are used by IDF. They enable observation of much larger areas than cameras , which are tied to a particular spot. Drone aircraft were widely used by the IDF in Lebanon since the end of the 70s, and Israeli companies are among world leaders in their development. On the other hand helium-filled blimps, used by the army and the police, are made in United States. Their diameter is 7 meters, and their cost is 80 thousand dollars. They have been used extensively as well, along the border with Lebanon and in Jerusalem.
3. The "Dead Zone"
An area near the fence is made into a "dead zone", which is cleared of any plants, buildings or even rocks which can serve as a cover for infiltrators. Often some part of this area is mined with anti-infantry mines and noisemakers, including wire-tripped mines. and control over natural features and buildings that are located nearby. The width of this area must be from 200 meters to 2 kilometers but considering the layout of the West Bank, in some regions (such as Qalqylia, Tul-Karem and others) it will have to be significantly reduced. In case of Jerusalem it would have to be eliminated altogether.
4. An "intrusion detection" strip
This is an integral part of any buffer zone. Specially trained pathfinders - usually composed of Bedouins or soldiers of Ethiopian origin - form a patrol team, which inspect the previously ploughed up area for tracks or any other evidence of infiltration.
5. Patrols
Soldiers who patrol along the dividing area and set ambushes, before and behind the fence. Tanks and "Nagmashot" APCs are used for detecting trespassers, because they are equipped with long-range observation equipment (including night-sights). Likewise, their weapons suite enables them to destroy the enemies from a distance.
A conservative requirement is for a battalion of soldiers with support of armor (at least one armored platoon, often two), for a piece of the buffer zone of 20-25 kilometers length. The operators who man the observation systems and maintenance personnel come separately, and wouldn't count as part of this total.
So, the "buffer zone" is not just a fence, but a complicated system of barriers, observation posts and patrols. This is the main problem of "buffer zones" - there is a need for huge investments and significant forces of army and police to make them effective.
For fully functional "buffer zone" between Israel and the West Bank of more than 200 kilometers of length there will be a need for hundreds of millions of dollars, intensive construction effort which will last at least a year (more probably two or more); the amount of army forces and necessary personnel will be equivalent to one and a half IDF division. This is a big number for a force that fields roughly 4 divisions of active duty troops.
As a result of all those efforts, will the desired aim - security of all citizens of Israel - be achieved?
Definitely no. First, the security of Israelis who live on the "territories" will most probably decrease, because the troops that now guard the settlements and the roads of the West Bank will probably be detached to patrol the buffer zones.
Second, during the current Intifada, Palestinians have prepared and imported many weapons that are able to attack Israeli cities beyond the dividing line. Those means consist of mortars, up to and including 120mm, unguided rockets such as "Katyushas" of 105mm and 122mm (such as those that were found by Israel on board of "Santorini" and "Karin-A" ships), and their own homegrown "el-Aksa/Kassam-1/2" missiles.
"Kassam-2" is a 120mm unguided rocket, with 4 to 6 kg of explosive payload and 6-8 kilometers range, with the range being inversely proportional the weight of the. It is stabilized in flight by fins welded to the casing. The engine is ignited by an electric fuse, which can be triggered by a timing mechanism. The missile is launched from rails mounted on a bipod. The precision of such missile is not great, but is enough to hit a population center.
The use of a timer is an ingenious invention, which prevents effective counter-battery fire by IDF artillery. "Kassam" missiles are manufactured at home conditions, in home workshops. During the military action in Balata refugees-camp, Israeli troops discovered a workshop for the "Kassam" manufacturing, with 7 missiles in various stages of construction, including one that was already prepared for launch. Shortly before the raid, a Palestinian driving a truck with another 8 missiles and 2 launchers was caught in the West Bank.
At night between 3-rd and 4-th of March Palestinians launched 5 missiles to Israel from Tul-Karem. That time the missiles fell on an open area, causing no injuries. However on the evening of 5-th of March a missile fell for the first time in the neighborhood of town of Sderot, and for the first time the harm was not only material - as a result of the explosion a baby was wounded.
Aside from missile attacks on Israeli cities, Palestinian terrorists will still be able to get into Israel, using ID cards of Eastern Jerusalem inhabitants and cooperation of Israeli Arabs. Not only that, but if Palestinian workers continue to receive Israeli work-permits, they will have no problem penetrating the buffer zones.
Return To Top June 19, 2002
Due to a scheduling error your editor failed to update in time for Monday. Please accept his apologies. This is Monday's update, a day late; tomorrow we'll catch up.
June 18, 2002
The US Faces A Century Of Conflict
Al Qaeda Gathering Strength in Pakistan
The US faces a century of conflict
From our friends at AFI Research: by
Richard M. Bennett, with Marcus Cohen, Maj. Frank Hayes and Dr James Hawker.
[We like this article while not agreeing with it because it's a serious effort to move beyond our now daily fixation with the war on terror. Most people's focus - analysis.orbat.com included - has become increasingly narrow as we discuss does India's tank advantage over Pakistan mean anything, which of the corps commanders poses a serious threat to President Musharraf, is the coalition succeeding in Afghanistan and other stuff. AFI is attempting to pull back and look at what all this means in a broader context. We'd be very interested to hear what our readers think of AFI's thesis. Editor.]
Recent United States Governments despite the truism that politicians rarely think beyond the next election or about anything other than their own survival, have in fact devoted much time and thought to the prospects for the next 10-15 years and beyond to the second half of the century. Major academic research centres and 'think tanks' have been quietly responsible for a large number of highly confidential and quasi-official reports on the international situations future US Governments are likely to face. The arguments put forward if not actually alarmist, are certainly highly disquieting.
The United States would be unwise to assume continuing co-operation with Russia, while China and many of the Islamic states are likely to become increasingly hostile. Both Europe and Japan will see their own best interests served by only paying lip-service to Washington while following their own interests which may indeed lead to a greater degree of open economic competition, particularly as increasing demographic and environmental pressures continue to undermine international co-operation. And it increasingly appears likely that the Third worlds problems are largely insoluble and are likely to markedly worsen with increased poverty, famine, economic under-achievement and political instability.
The future threats; WMD, Global warming and a shortage of natural resources
But by far the most pressing issues Washington will face are the proliferation of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons along with the massive growth of cheap and readily available satellite, communications, computer and missile technology. These will allow many more states to develop a capability to not only challenge US power in a regional context, but in some cases actually threaten continental USA itself with weapons of mass destruction; a potential environmental disaster that will directly affect the majority of the worlds 6 billion population brought about by global warming. A disaster that, rightly or wrongly much of the international community hold the US Government responsible for. Washington stands accused of directly undermining serious attempts to cut pollution out of temporary political self-interest; and finally the reduction in availability of cheap fuel resources and vital raw materials. This alone is sufficient to lead to increasingly hostile competition and directly threaten the US economic environment.
Without a shadow of doubt the 21st century threatens to become yet more unstable and violent. The growing risk of serious conflicts driven by religious extremism, economic and demographic pressures and by the simple, but paramount need to survive when faced by a shortage of land, fresh water supplies and to escape the effects of rising sea levels must seriously distort Washington's current thinking. The threat of an Islamic or worse still terrorist nuclear capability, the possible rebirth of a Russian 'empire' and the growth of regional superpowers in India, Japan, China and perhaps even Brazil will influence Washington's determination to defeat international terrorism, and to dismantle the WMD programs in Iraq, Iran, North Korea and elsewhere. Washington will also be influenced by the need to maintain its predominate economic position by ensuring some form of control over the vital oil producing areas of Latin America, the Middle East and Central Asia. The United States is also making a positive, but largely unnoticed effort to increase its influence and presence in areas of important oil reserves and natural resources in both Africa and South East Asia.
As the worlds only combined economic, technological, diplomatic and military superpower it comes as no real surprise that Washington is quietly moving to secure a continuing and dominating position for the future. It is a matter of how the United States actually chooses to go about doing so and how successful they are, that will ultimately play a major part in determining whether war or peace will dominate the rest of the 21st century.
Return To Top June 18, 2002
Al Qaeda Gathering Strength in Pakistan
Forwarded to us by Ram Narayanan, excerpts from an article in the Los Angeles Times.
[Let's be clear about two things. One, the west is no way responsible for the mess Pakistan has gotten itself into. That is 100% Pakistan's own doing. Two, the vast majority of Pakistanis are not fanatics by any definition, and are victims, plain and simple, of their own rulers.
If the Los Angeles Times is correct, the world is heading into a potential crisis much greater than Bin Ladin or the Taliban could create for the west in their wildest dreams. Pakistan is not Sudan or Afghanistan. At 160 million people, it is the fifth biggest country in the world.
Your editor will be accused of jumping the gun, but what worries him is that the current American policy of dealing with Pakistan's terrorist problem by working with the ruling elite will fail. The US could then turn against Pakistan as a whole, just as it turned against Iraq as a whole. Today Indians and Pakistanis are mortal enemies, but they are still ethnic brothers with a common history and heritage. Your editor is distressed by the possibility that the ordinary people of Pakistan may be punished for the misdeeds of 1/1000th of the population. Editor]
WASHINGTON -- Hundreds of Al Qaeda terrorist operatives are hiding in Pakistan's
cities after forming or renewing alliances with local Muslim extremist networks
that have helped provide safe houses for communications, training and logistics,
U.S. officials say.
The result, they fear, is that America's closest ally in Central Asia has in
effect replaced Afghanistan as a command-and-control center for at least some of
the battered remnants of Osama bin Laden's terrorist army.
"They don't operate with impunity there like they did in Afghanistan," a U.S.
intelligence official said. "But they have lots of supporters, and it's easy for
them to blend in." A Justice Department official agreed, saying Al Qaeda members
appear to have gone "wherever they want" in Pakistan's teeming cities.
"They're hiding in plain sight," he said.
Authorities say that Al Qaeda has made similar efforts to regroup by merging
with local Muslim extremist groups in Africa, the Middle East and Southeast
Asia. These makeshift alliances are more decentralized than the network long
directed by Bin Laden, officials say, and thus might be more difficult for
outsiders to penetrate.
Since last fall, the United States and its allies say they have foiled more than
a dozen terrorist plots around the world and arrested more than 2,400 suspects
in nearly 90 countries.
But more than half of Al Qaeda's known leaders remain at large, including
several linked to the Sept. 11 assaults and other major attacks.
U.S. intelligence analysts still believe that Bin Laden and his top aides have
found refuge somewhere along Pakistan's long and lawless border with
Afghanistan. Broad pockets of local sympathizers are said to exist in the
semiautonomous tribal areas of Baluchistan and North-West Frontier Province.
But U.S. and Pakistani officials now estimate that hundreds more Al Qaeda and
Taliban fighters who fled the war in Afghanistan have disappeared into Pakistan.
Many are thought to have linked up with like-minded local groups opposed to
secular Muslim regimes and to the Western powers that support them.
[The article continues on to say that Al Qaeda has been behind several terrorist incidents in Pakistan.]
In some cases, U.S. officials say, Pakistani militants and even some members of
the government's Inter-Services Intelligence agency, known as the ISI, have
openly supported Al Qaeda and have used an informal underground railroad to help
fleeing terrorists.
"The ISI is filled with extremists, and I don't think they're trying very hard
to find these people," said a recently retired U.S. counter-terrorism official
who is familiar with the manhunt. "In fact, they're actively trying to hide
them."
Al Qaeda's presence in Pakistan poses a growing danger and dilemma for both
Washington and Islamabad.
Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, who visited Pakistan last week, and other
U.S. officials have offered strong public support for President Pervez
Musharraf's military regime, which has provided airstrips, bases, fuel,
intelligence and other critical help to U.S. forces.
Privately, however, many U.S. officials are increasingly voicing concerns that
Musharraf's crackdown on local terrorist groups this year has largely failed.
Several banned groups have morphed or spawned virulent offshoots that have
launched several attacks against Westerners this year. Authorities haven't
solved Friday's car bombing outside the U.S. Consulate in Karachi, which killed
at least 11 Pakistanis and wounded dozens more. A previously unknown group has
claimed responsibility, but U.S. officials said the FBI is investigating whether
Al Qaeda might be linked to the attack…..
U.S. officials say that Padilla, who used the Muslim name Abdullah al Muhajir,
studied bomb-making early this year at an Al Qaeda safe house in Lahore, met
with senior Al Qaeda officials in March at another safe house in Karachi and
traveled elsewhere in the country. Pakistani police arrested Padilla's alleged
accomplice in Rawalpindi.
Although Padilla's role was not known at the time, U.S. and Pakistani officials
raided the Lahore safe house where he had stayed as well as suspected Al Qaeda
compounds in several other cities March 28. Abu Zubeida, Al Qaeda's operations
chief, and several of his senior aides were captured after a shootout that night
at a house in Faisalabad.
As for Pakistan, the State Department, in its annual report on global terrorism
issued last month, said Islamabad had "rendered unprecedented levels of
cooperation to support the war on terrorism." The report noted that Islamabad
broke ties with the Taliban regime in Afghanistan after Sept. 11, froze hundreds
of thousands of dollars in suspected terrorist assets and moved to bring radical
Muslim schools that served as "breeding grounds for terrorists" into the
mainstream educational system.
Musharraf's government also outlawed several terrorist groups and detained more
than 2,000 domestic "extremists," the report said. But most have now been
released and might be active again.
Questions remain, the State Department warned, about whether "Musharraf's 'get
tough' policy with local militants and his stated pledge to oppose terrorism
anywhere will be fully implemented and sustained."
Part of the problem is Pakistan's history of covert support and overt tolerance
for Muslim extremist groups, starting with the Taliban.
[The article discusses in detail how jihadi groups opposed to non-Muslims have thrived and proliferated in Pakistan with official support.]
A former Clinton administration counter-terrorism official said Pakistan's
increasing tangle of terrorist groups and their spinoffs is "very worrisome."
"The general turmoil has made it much more attractive for all jihadists in the
region to go after American targets," he said. The long-range danger is that
local Muslim militants backed by Al Qaeda could destabilize Pakistan, overthrow
the government and set a dangerous new course for the nation.
"It is entirely within the realms of possibility that Pakistan could end up with
an Islamic leadership that is a lot less sympathetic to the United States," he
said.
Tashbih Sayyed, the Pakistani-born editor of Pakistan Today, published in
Southern California, said the war in Afghanistan only "destroyed an outpost" of
terrorism. "The main infrastructure remained intact," he said. And Pakistan, he
warned, "is kind of a meeting place now for all the radical forces in the
world."
Return To Top June 18, 2002
June 15, 2002
Diplomacy: A Skill Now Extinct
International Security Assistance Force
India has thin edge over Pak militarily June 14
Peru Military Demoralization May Degrade Anti-Terror Campaign June 24
A Comment on the Possibility of War Between India and Pakistan June 13
Resisting Nuclear Blackmail June 12
Letters to the Editor: Major Amin's "What America Seeks to Destroy" June 11
Nuclear Rationality: by Mr. K. Subhramanyam June 10
What the US Seeks to Destroy June 10
Diplomacy - a skill now nearly extinct
Richard Bennett and Dr James Hawker offer a controversial and challenging view of modern diplomacy
The US Defence Secretary is being privately accused by senior Indian military leaders of having deceived the New Delhi government over Kashmir. India is believed to have only agreed to conciliatory gestures such as the withdrawal of part of its fleet from near the Pakistan coast, the opening of its air space to Pakistan civil aircraft and the possible return of a High Commissioner to Islamabad after the United States had discreetly assured them that they intended to extend the war on terrorism to Kashmir and force the Pakistan Government to crack down on the Islamic Militants or risk unilateral US action against the separatist movements known to have close links to Al Qa'ida. However Mr Rumsfeld has now clearly stated that there is apparently no connection between Islamic attacks on India and Al Qa'ida and as the United States and Pakistan are working together so closely to destroy Al Qa'ida in that country that there is no need to send US troops into Kashmir."I do not have evidence and the United States does not have evidence of Al Qa'ida in Kashmir," he said. "We do have a good deal of scraps of intelligence that come in from people saying that they believe Al Qa'ida are in Kashmir."
Rumsfeld went on "The co-operation between the United States and Pakistan on the subject of Al Qa'ida is so close and so intimate and so co-operative that if there were any actionable intelligence as to Al Qa'ida anywhere in this country, there isn't a doubt in my mind but that the Pakistan government would go find them and deal with them." This must come as a distinct and unpleasant surprise to the Indian Government who have a mountain of evidence that Al Qa'ida is operating in Kashmir and involved in the Pakistan-backed Islamic terrorist campaign and unless the visit by the US Defence Secretary has achieved other, as yet unspecified agreements to defuse the simmering conflict along the Line of Control, then a further ratchetting up of tension in the near future is very much on the cards. The options then remaining to prevent a regional war with all the inherent dangers of a nuclear exchange will be few indeed. Mr Rumsfeld's journey to both Pakistan and India appears to have more to do with the image of diplomacy rather than the substance of hard bargaining and in common with most of Washington's political initiatives recently it is aimed at getting a positive sound bite on the main evening news. Putting the right spin on presentation has finally replaced substance completely as the main diplomatic and political necessity.
Lack of political originality cripples peace efforts
Washington now appears to be totally bereft of any original political thinking or an ability to produce a profoundly groundbreaking diplomatic initiative to restart the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians, India and Pakistan or to find an alternative solution to war over Iraq. It is a modern day tragedy that the worlds only super power should be run by a Government made up of small town politicians more effectively at war with each other than the terrorists, rather than the great Statesmen who once bestrode the world of diplomacy. Whether their policies received high approval ratings or not, there are simply no figures of the stature of John Foster Dulles or Henry Kissinger in the present Bush administration, particularly as Colin Powell has been so disgracefully sidelined and his influence much reduced. However, if that weren't bad enough the United States would be unwise to look to its allies for an intellectual view or any real insight into the current world situation. Britain has a Government virtually stripped of any outstanding political talent and that probably applies to many of the European countries where crooks or extremist politicians appear to be in the ascendancy.
In a world snowed under with the most extravagant access to information on the diplomatic, political, economic and military situation, it is simply stunning how little of it is of any real value and what does fall into that category also appears to fall on deaf ears. The world desperately needs statesmanship of the highest order; instead we are subjected to the insufferable banality of President Bush, Rumsfeld, Mr Blair, Straw, Chirac and the like. Hopefully sooner, rather than later Governments will be moved to begin appointing the able and knowledgeable to positions of responsibility, rather than simply promoting political cronies, the nominees of major financial contributors or those so mentally enfeebled as to pose no serious challenge to the leader. However, we suggest you don't hold your breath waiting!
Return To Top June 15, 2002
June 14, 2002
India has thin edge over Pak militarily
Peru Military Demoralization May Degrade Anti-Terror Campaign
A Comment on the Possibility of War Between India and Pakistan June 13
Resisting Nuclear BlackmailJune 12
Nuclear terrorism - America's latest nightmareJune 12
Letters to the Editor: Major Amin's "What America Seeks to Destroy" June 11
Nuclear Rationality: by Mr. K. Subhramanyam June 10
What the US Seeks to Destroy June 10
India has thin edge over Pak militarily
An article by Aloke Banerjee
From the Times of India.
[Your editor is glad that behind the scenes the Indian military, at least, was being rational when the war drums were sounding. He'd like to know a bit more about how the calculations for 1971 and 2002 were made as they do not accord with his calculations, unless we are talking of the army alone. Even so, this is just your editor indulging in some curmudgeonly grumbling and nitpicking. What Mr. Johann Price and your editor were a bit concerned about, however, was that the Indian military would paint itself into a corner, or be painted into a corner by politicians who are traditionally abysmally ignorant of things military, and then be forced into a no-win war. We need not have worried: the politicians were aware of the military's limitations and were only bluffing.
So we are in an odd situation. India was bluffing, we know Pakistan was bluffing about its nuclear arsenal - it was in no position to use them, and the US was bluffing both sides, telling the Pakistanis the Indians would attack, and the Indians that the Pakistanis would use nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, people like Mr. K. Subhramanyam were publicly making quite clear to the Americans that the Indians knew the Americans were bluffing, and we are told that other officials were saying the same thing in their meetings with their American counterparts.
In the end it seems no one was bluffed except the western media. Your editor suggests an appropriate punishment would be a dunce cap and time in the corner.
Nonetheless, your editor has to wonder: taking the Americans, Indians and Pakistanis, was this any way to manage the crisis? It seems to us all three parties are guilty of irresponsible talk and actions. Editor]
At least a month before the Indo-Pak war crescendo reached its peak, the Indian military high command had reportedly told the parliamentary standing committee on defence that the country had only a wafer-thin edge over its enemy in terms of military capabilities and that it would be unwise to go to war against Pakistan.
A prominent member of the defence standing committee told TNN on Wednesday that in separate presentations in April, the Army, Navy and the Airforce had reported that India's superiority over Pakistan's military was barely 1 : 1.2 and India's superiority had come down from the level of 1 : 1.7 which it had during the 1971 war.
The committee member, who agreed to talk to TNN only after de-escalation of tension between the two countries began, claimed that irrespective of its hard posturing, at no point in time had the Centre taken any decision to go to war. Its sole objective had been to draw the attention of the international community and to mount pressure on Pakistan, he claimed.
The military headquarters had in fact observed that Pakistan had superior capabilities in several areas, specially in the field of missiles, the committee member claimed. All the major cities in India are within the reach of Pak missiles and number of strategic targets as well as number of people likely to be affected are much larger than those in Pakistan.
The military headquarters had also informed the defence standing committee that ever since the troop mobilisation along the Indo-Pak border reached its peak, the military was incurring a daily expenditure of Rs 60-70 crore. Also, since the December 13 terrorist strike against the Indian parliament, the total expenditure incurred by the military was a whopping Rs 4000 crore.
Standing committee members were also told that given the ground realities, a short surgical strike, either against terrorist camps in Pak occupied Kashmir or against strategic targets in Pakistan, was not possible. The war was bound to be a prolonged one unless interrupted by a nuclear strike or heavy international pressure, representatives of the Army, Navy and Airforce reportedly said.
Return To Top June 14, 2002
Peru Military Demoralization May Degrade Nati-Terror Campaign
This article by Scott Wilson if the Washington Post has been forwarded to us by Orbat.com contributor Gordon A. MacKinlay. We have excerpted the material below.
LIMA, Peru -- Ten months into his reform-minded administration, President
Alejandro Toledo has encountered a crisis of sinking morale in the Peruvian
military that has made the army reluctant to deal with new signs of life
from the long-dormant Shining Path guerrilla movement.
…sectors of Peru's 135,000-member armed forces are on an "undeclared strike"
to protest the president's budget cuts, public criticism of their past
tactics and steps to bring the military more squarely under civilian control
in a country where coups have been commonplace.
The tensions come as the Shining Path, …has started
showing up again in two of Peru's key drug-producing regions and stepped up
recruiting on college campuses. The group is suspected of planting a bomb
that exploded in front of the U.S. Embassy here in March and killed nine
people days before a visit by President Bush.
"We're not talking about a revolt against the constitutional order, but
simply a lack of respect for any orders given by the government," said a
senior officer…At its heart, the military's anger toward Toledo is rooted in the armed
forces' diminished stature under his rule
Toledo has
cut the military budget 15 percent to pay for anti-poverty programs, named
Peru's first civilian defense minister and purged a number of senior
military officers he viewed as beholden to the previous government.
Fujimori, now in exile in Japan… gave his military a free hand to put
down the Shining Path and a smaller insurgency that terrorized Peru for a
decade in a conflict that left more than 25,000 people dead. But Toledo has
been critical of the brutal, if largely successful, tactics used by
government forces that ended the guerrilla movements or sent them
underground.
"They (the military) are very weak, bruised and have decided to take a neutral stand in
this fight" against the Shining Path, said Andres Gomez de la Torre, who
served as Toledo's first foreign intelligence director and is now an analyst
with the Institute of Political and Strategic Studies. "The first things
Toledo needs to do to fix this is equip them, fulfill budget requests and
express confidence in their abilities whenever he can."
Defense Minister Aurelio Loret de Mola said much of the military's
displeasure is the result of budget cuts. Despite being the chief advocate
for Toledo's military reform plan, Loret de Mola said, "I, too, share in
this discontent."
About 96 percent of Peru's $780 million defense operating budget goes to
salaries. The balance pays for operations and training.
Return To Top June 14, 2002
June 13, 2002
A Comment on the Possibility of War Between India and Pakistan
Mr. Jack Straw's Statement on Kashmir
Resisting Nuclear BlackmailJune 12
Nuclear terrorism - America's latest nightmareJune 12
Letters to the Editor: Major Amin's "What America Seeks to Destroy" June 11
Iraq stirs the Middle East cauldron June 11
Nuclear Rationality: by Mr. K. Subhramanyam June 10
What the US Seeks to Destroy June 10
A Comment on the possibility of war between India and Pakistan: Johann Price
The following comment is from Johann Price, our executive editor. He has served in the military and is a keen observer of the military and strategic situation in South Asia. He has several updates on Operation Enduring Freedom.
So far nothing has been done that cant be undone with the same speed. Determining whether an attack is in the works is about two things: capabilities and intentions. Intentions are from the intelligence perspective the easiest element to disguise, and the hardest to verify. Indian intentions appear to waffle back and forth but the Government of India (GoI) has *not* stood down its capabilities in any substantial manner yet. It would be prudent to take that as an important indicator of intentions in itself.
The Indian government still retain the initiative in the current situation. The continued full mobilisation of Indian forces is the crowbar that continues to afford them leverage with the West and with the Pakistanis. Shahbaz AB in Jacobabad is the hub of the American military presence in Pakistan and a key indicator to the West's perceived risk of war in the region. Personnel have not yet as far as I know begun to return yet.
The conventional military and diplomatic balance is such that the Indians *need* a Pakistani provocation before they can respond across the LoC. I suspect that in turn they hope will provoke the Pakistanis into armoured thrusts by ARS and/or ARN, playing out their established doctrine of 'Riposte'. This would go some distance in taking care of a Lanchester equation that as Ravi Rikhye our editor at Orbat.com has pointed out is unfavourable to Indian offensive operations. It may not result in a change of regime in Islamabad, but I'm sure the GoI can find a short sharp and apparently decisive war (like the 1990-91 Gulf War) to its advantage. Under such conditions, if the Pakistanis appear to make concessions, the Indians too must appear to make concessions.
This is one possible interpretation. I am not yet entirely convinced as any good offensive plan incorporates a careful and sound deception plan. Yom Kippur, Operation Barbarossa, etc owed their tactical and strategic surprise, despite full visibility by feeding their opponent what they wanted to hear. The greatest deception plan of course was FORTITUDE/BODYGUARD without which D-Day would most likely *not* have succeeded. Indian sources, normally quite tight lipped paint the above picture a little bit too readily.
If (and I admit that its a difficult if) however a bilateral or multilateral verification regime does work to the GoI's satisfaction it is unlikely we will see such an offensive.
At the end of this crisis the only way that Pakistan and it's army will lose the intention and/or means of supporting terrorism in India is if either
(a) a full fledged nuclear exchange takes place. Either because of miscommunication or deliberate provocation by the Indians.
(b) they go into a complete funk
Return To Top June 13, 2002
Mr. Jack Straw's Statement on Kashmir
Forwarded by Amitava Dutta with a comment.
The British government site linked here
contains the full text of Jack Straw's
statement this past Monday.
Is this any different from UK declaring that
Pakistan is a state sponsor of terrorism?
Looks like GOTUS still wants to maintain
the "friendly" relationship with Pakistan.
Excerpts:
India has long charged that such terrorism
has had the covert support of successive
Pakistani Governments, and in particular
the Inter-services Intelligence
Directorate (ISID) the main intelligence
agency in Pakistan. Her Majesty's Government
accepts that there is a clear link
between ISID and these groups.
In Islamabad, I underlined to President
Musharraf the need for Pakistan to take
visible, decisive and verifiable steps to:
seal the Line of Control;
to stop supplies to militant groups;
to help restrain the violent activities
of these groups;
and to close the militant training camps
on Pakistan's side of the Line of Control.
Return To Top June 13, 2002
June 12, 2002
Resisting Nuclear Blackmail
Nuclear terrorism - America's latest nightmare
Letters to the Editor: Major Amin's "What America Seeks to Destroy" June 11
Iraq stirs the Middle East cauldron June 11
Nuclear Rationality: by Mr. K. Subhramanyam June 10
What the US Seeks to Destroy June 10
India and Pakistan Sector Balances: West Jammu and Kashmir, North Ladakh June 8
India versus Pakistan Sector Balances: Jammu June 7
India versus Pakistan Sector Balances: the Punjab June 6
India versus Pakistan Sector Balances: the Desert June 5
Resisting Nuclear Blackmail
This article from the Times of India is by K. Subhramanyam and was forwarded by Amitava Dutta. Mr. Subhramanyam is the doyen of national security analysts in India and a leading writer on security issues. Though he is best known for heading the Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses in New Delhi for many years, he is also the convener of the National Security Advisory Board to the Indian National Security Council, an agency he worked long and hard to see created, and has been Chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee and Secretary for Defense Production during his long and distinguished career as a bureaucrat. He chaired the Kargil Inquiry Committee into intelligence lapses that let to the 1999 border war with Pakistan. The thinking of the Indian public and defense establishment on nuclear policy has largely been shaped by his writings over a 35 year period.
Start Article
US defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld's visit to
Pakistan and India was initially advertised as an
attempt to teach the leaderships of the two countries
about the horrors of a nuclear war.
For this purpose, he was reported to have been
equipped with a study by the US defence intelligence
agency highlighting the obvious that a nuclear
exchange involving even a score of weapons will result
in millions of casualties.
Now Mr Rumsfeld is coming after deputy secretary of
state Richard Armitage has completed his mission
which appears to have resulted in a tangible reduction
of tensions between India and Pakistan. General
Musharraf has pledged his commitment to Washington
that he was giving up cross-border terrorism as an
instrument of policy permanently. If the general keeps
his promise, then de-escalation of forces will follow
over a period of time.
General Musharraf has vehemently disassociated
himself from the nuclear threat which was conveyed by
his diplomats and colleagues in the administration.
Though the threat of a nuclear exchange in the
subcontinent has dissipated, the issues raised by the
Pakistani nuclear threat and the US response to it
still
remain. Mr Rumsfeld may be expected to clarify the
US policy on the issue of nuclear threats by small
nuclear powers indulging in rogue behaviour.
While the US has been silent on the issue, British
foreign secretary Jack Straw has made it clear that
the
Pakistani nuclear strategy was totally unacceptable.
What has been puzzling is the silence of the US
administration, US academia and media about
Washington~Rs responsibility in case of a nuclear
threat
conveyed by a small nuclear weapon state and the
imperatives of US national interests and national
security.
Had Pakistan succeeded in its strategy of holding out
a nuclear threat, a message would have gone out loud
and clear to all potential rogue states that
Islamabad's
path was the right one to follow. It would have
signalled
that rogue states could blackmail their neighbours
without bothering about any punishment from the sole
superpower. This supine behaviour on the part of the
sole superpower does not reinforce credibility in its
much proclaimed counter-proliferation strategy. This
could only strengthen the opinion among some
sections in Japan or Iran which are neighbours of
potential rogue states that they would have to go in
for
their own nuclear deterrence.
Since India is pledged to a no-first-use policy, any
nuclear exchange can only start with Pakistan~Rs
first-use of nuclear weapons. The logical way of
preventing that is to warn Pakistan that any first-use
of
nuclear weapons by it would not be tolerated as Mr
Jack Straw has done and indicate that such use would
be punished by other nuclear weapon powers.
Silence on the issue on the specious ground advanced
by Pakistan that the use of nuclear weapons was the
only way of stopping India's larger conventional
force
would be a sanction to all nations facing a larger
adversary to go in for nuclear weapons. Second, the
Indian military superiority vis-a-vis Pakistan is not
of a
kind and magnitude as to cause a decisive defeat of
Pakistan or permit a sustained war over a period
leading to such a result.
In 1990, then president George Bush acted to stop
Pakistan's attempt at nuclear blackmail by
dispatching
the Robert Gates mission. Does the present US
silence and inaction indicate a major change in US
policy and counter-proliferation strategy? If Pakistan
had been able to fire its nuclear weapon, what would
be its impact on the morale of its erstwhile
associates,
the Al-Qaida, the Taliban and various jehadi groups?
In
that event, what is the guarantee that some of those
weapons would also not be fired at US bases and US
ships in the Arabian Sea, especially if the
Pakistanis
conclude that the Indian retaliation would be
punitive?
The jehadi spirit that drives the terrorists to
indulge in
suicidal attacks might inspire them to hit at US
targets
as well.
The US silence does not indicate a high degree of
concern for the lives of US servicemen deployed in
Pakistan and Afghani-stan and in ships in the Arabian
Sea.
It is possible that the Pakistani nuclear threat was
an
elaborate charade to which the US was privy and
which was intended to stop India from any adventurist
action. In that case, it was an imprudent act
tantamount
to crying wolf when there was no wolf. In any case,
the
Pakistani nuclear threat did not have an impact on
India and it was General Musharraf who had to
distance himself from his own threats.
The general has been able to ensure that Osama bin
Laden, Mullah Omar and their associates enjoy a safe
haven in Pakistan in spite of the US president
warning that any nation providing them asylum will be
treated as an adversary.
General Musharraf has been indulging in nuclear
threats making a mockery of US counter-proliferation
policy. The US forces have not been able to carry out
any successful operation on the Pakistan-Afghan
border. The US continues to face new threats of
terrorist attacks by the Al-Qaida safely ensconced in
Pakistan.
The US defence secretary has a lot to think about and
explain during his travels to Islamabad and New Delhi.
Return To Top June 12, 2002
Nuclear terrorism - America's latest nightmare
From our colleague at AFI Research, Richard M. Bennett.
A nightmare that has haunted Western security services and thoroughly alarmed Governments since 9-11 appears to have moved a step closer to becoming an awful reality. US Attorney General John Ashcroft has claimed that a US citizen arrested last month at Chicago's O'Hare airport was actively planning a terrorist attack on Washington DC with a so-called 'Dirty Bomb', a high explosive device seeded with radioactive material capable of contaminating large areas without the need of a nuclear explosion. America has been painfully aware of the threat posed by such an Al Qa'ida attack since the end of last year when documents recovered from former training camps in Afghanistan along with the testimony of captured terrorists presented the FBI with a clear picture of Osama Bin-Ladins true intentions. However the timing of this announcement has in the present climate of growing doubt at the efficiency of the US intelligence agencies and slight fall in electoral support for President Bush, raised suspicions about just how much of the planned attack the United States has genuienly uncovered and how much is hype to counter-act the bad press coverage received by the FBI and CIA recently.
Whatever the true importance of the arrest of this American terrorist eventually turns out to be, there can be little doubt that the criminal lack of security at many nuclear facilities in the former Soviet Union and the risk of disaffected Russian scientists and engineers does offer international terrorists both the nuclear material and the know-how to build a crude, but still highly dangerous radioactive device. The obvious threat is further compounded by information that Al Qa'ida terrorists are believed to have been given specialist training in the use of deadly weapons of mass destruction in both Iraq and Iran.The ability to create a simple 'dirty bomb' no longer relies upon access to advanced facilities or high technology equipment alone. Though limited by size and weight it would be possible for a terrorist group to build a bomb capable of contaminating upto 30 % of the American Capital or any similar major population centre, that would still fit comfortably within a typical medium sized van or perhaps be placed in an unoccupied flat or lock-up garage.
All that is actually required is a device made up of a so-called fast-burning or ultra high-explosive such as HMX surrounded with a sheath of enriched uranium U235, plutonium or perhaps using a range of radioactive materials that could be stolen from ordinary US or British hospital laboratories, universities or even certain food-processing facilities. The result would be similar in explosive power to say perhaps a 500lb conventional bomb, but this would scatter radioactive particles over a wide area contaminating it with material often with a half-live of hundreds of years. Targets that must be high on any potential Al Qa'ida hit list could include nuclear power stations, oil refineries, railway junctions, city centres, important Government or military sites and most worrying of all vital reservoirs and other water supplies. Their continued use of thiese vital areas could be effectively denied for many years to come, throwing vital areas of the nations infrastructure into utter chaos and with the added threat of a massive rise in many forms of cancer. There is little the FBI or for that matter MI5 could do to prevent such an outrage without inside knowledge of the terrorist group and that is simply unavailable to Western intelligence services at present. It may indeed take years before current clandestine operations to penetrate militant groups bear fruit and allow the security services a clearer picture of the enemies real intentions.
American terrorists undermine US attempts to improve security
The threat of a new wave of terrorist attacks is very real and highlights once again that Al Qa'ida though having lost its Afghan rat-hole, has not been defeated. The Islamic terrorists have probably penetrated all aspects of American society, recruiting US citizens and establishing deep cover cells and close links with right wing, white supremacist groups who hold similar abhorrent anti-Jewish views. The shock waves felt in Washington over the capture of the American Taliban volunteer, John Walker will be as nothing compared to the effect on United States public opinion and its perception of the real terrorist threat, of the discovery that American citizens are actively involved in helping Al Qa'ida plan and perhaps even carry out a nuclear attack on Washington.
New immigration controls, increased surveillance at airports and the campaign in Afghanistan will have little effective if the terrorist is a home grown, applepie loving Yank. Jose Padilla alias Abdullah al-Mujahir, is the true face of Al Qa'ida, of real international terrorism. As that shocking revelation finally slams home to the average American, the image 'joe public' has of his country, of the United States of America, will be irrevocably changed. 9-11 not only devastated New York and hugely distorted the world, it has set America on a path with its seemingly endless cycle of being attacked and responding violently, that none can yet say where it will lead. For that, if nothing else, Osama Bin-Ladin will be forever damned.
Return To Top June 12, 2002
June 11, 2002
Letters to the Editor: Major Amin's "What America Seeks to Destroy"
Iraq stirs the Middle East cauldron
Nuclear Rationality: by Mr. K. Subhramanyam June 10
What the US Seeks to Destroy June 10
India and Pakistan Sector Balances: West Jammu and Kashmir, North Ladakh June 8
India versus Pakistan Sector Balances: Jammu June 7
India and Pakistan: Latest Developments on Deescalation Proposals June 7
India versus Pakistan Sector Balances: the Punjab June 6
India versus Pakistan Sector Balances: the Desert June 5
Note from the Editor
With India having withdrawn its ban on over flights by Pakistan aircraft and having pulled back reinforcing warships dispatched to the Arabian Sea, the tension level in South Asia has ratcheted down a notch.
Please be sure to check out Johann Price's latest naval orbat for Operation Enduring Freedom and Military casualties in Operation Enduring Freedom. Tomorrow we will carry his explanation of the quite complex command arrangements for the operation.
Letters to the Editor: Major Amin's "What America Seeks to Destroy"
From David Newton
Major Amin expresses rage and frustration, and directs that rage and frustration at the United States. Some of that direction of rage is justified. The United States has made some very foolish foreign policy decisions in the past, and those decisions should be derided for the idiocy that they were. One such recent decision was Clinton's cruise missile diplomacy in response to the 1998 US embassy bombings in Africa. Even should some of that rage and frustration in the Muslim world being directed at the US be justified, most of it should not be directed at the US, it should be directed to their own rulers. The US has not maintained every despot in the Arab or Muslim world, although there have been a few cases of direct intervention to support despots, such as the American and British sponsored coup in 1950s Iran. The US has not maintained the Ayatollahs in Tehran, it has not maintained Hussein in Iraq, Khadaffi in Libya or Assad in Syria, yet those regimes have still oppressed their people and denied them fundamental human rights.
50 years ago Taiwan and South Korea were ruled by despots, and South Korea was devastated by a full scale war being fought on its soil. Now, both countries are democracies and are a lot more prosperous, and throughout that time they have been American allies. Why is it that the Muslim world has not made the same progress in that time? Within the Muslim world, there is only one long term example of a democracy; Turkey. There are stirrings of democracy in Indonesia now, but they are very recent. There have been many theories advanced as to the reason for this chronic lack of progress, and I will not attempt to go through them here. The common thread throughout most of them is that something within Islam itself which prevents democracy and progress within the modern world. That would seem to be backed up by Turkey, where the army has to periodically intervene to maintain a secular democracy. Christianity at one time suffered from a malaise like that. It took the root and branch reform of the Reformation to knock some sense into Christian thought, but unfortunately, there appears to be no equivalent process on the horizon for Islam.
Major Amin contends that it was only Soviet support that kept the Arabs from being defeated by Israel. The past ten years would tend to disprove that theory. The Soviet Union has been gone that long, and yet within the last 10 years there has been no great Israeli war of conquest. On the contrary, the Israelis have attempted to repeat the sucess of the Camp David peace treaty negotiations with Egypt, and in the case of Jordan they have suceeded. Until the horrendous events of the last 18 months, there was a strong camp within the Israeli political system for making peace with the Palestinians. When Shimon Peres, one of the architects of the Oslo accords uses some of the language that he has used against the Palestinians recently, you know that something is terribly wrong. The Israeli doves have been thoroughly discredited by events like the Netanya Passover massacre. Israel is a democracy, and if Ghandi-esque tactics were adopted by the Palestinians, not only would they make great strides within Israeli public opinion, they would make great strides within world public opinion. Israeli hawks would be pressured from both inside and out to come to the table. Such tactics would not work against a dictatorship, but they worked against one of the most powerful democracies in the world, Great Britain. Arab aggression and support for terrorist murderers is sullying their cause, people in democracies should not, and generally do not support people who are associated with terrorists. Arabs will continue seeing more Jenins whilst terrorists operate in their midst.
In the piece, a statement is also made to the effect that America is bereft of an ideology. To quote the millitary analyst Stuart Slade, "That [American] ideology was being fat, rich, happy and spending our time indulging ourselves. To the bulk of the population of the rest of the world its an immensely attractive ideology. It's also an immensely efficient one. Thats the true horror of the situation for those who rule other countries. To compete with the USA, theuy have to become like us. And as soon as they do that, we've won." The true power of that ideology can be seen in what it has beaten. Facism and Nazism were disposed of in the European theatre in WWII. Japanese millitarism was disposed of in the Pacific theatre in WWII. Soviet Communism was disposed of by the Cold War. Chinese Communism has been corrupted so far from its original form by Capitalism that Mao must be turning in his grave. At the moment, only a fraction of the power of that ideology has been roused in anger to deal with terrorism. September 11th is viewed by many people in the same light as Pearl Harbor, but so far the reponse to it has not required the same alteration to everyday life as WWII. In that fact can be seen the fundamental American psyche at work.
America does not want to expend any more effort on sorting out the problems of the world than absolutely necessary. It has no enormously powerful state enemies to fight at the moment, only a few TLDs (Tinpot Little Dictatorships) that think themselves to be big players on the international stage. America does not want this war to become a clash of civilisations, it wants to leave as much of the international system alone and to its own devices as possible. Should a clash of civilisations be forced upon America and the rest of the western democracies such as France, Germany and Britain, the Muslim world will find out just how powerful a democracy aroused to anger can be. Democracies do terrible things during total war, the aforementioned bombing of Tokyo, the bombing of Dresden and the atomic bombs, but they only do them during total war, and they are not easily got into full total warfighting mindset.
A Daisy Cutter killing people can be terrorism, it depends on who it is dropped on, and what the intention of the people ordering the dropping is. Blowing up civilians with an explosive belt strapped to the bomber is ALWAYS terrorism. The civilians targetted deliberately make that the case. The Soviets invaded Afghanistan to impose a government on it for no good reason other than expansionism. America and its allies only brought the Taliban down after being forced to do so by the Taliban giving aid and comfort to the enemies of America who had murdered 3,000 civilians in peacetime. Once Afghanistan is stable, and has a government accountable to its people, that will not shelter Al Qaida again (ie like the Afghan government prior to 1973 and Soviet meddling starting), then American, British and Canadian troops will be withdrawn unless the Afghans request them to remain. Those powers and the others aiding America do not want to be in Afghanistan for ever, the Soviets did.
If Major Amin thinks that Americans are not willing to die for their ideals, he should ask the Japanese, Germans and Italians who were the receiving end of American firepower. He should also ask the Taliban whether Americans will fight for their ideals. Americans do not view life as something to be thrown away, hence their reliance on technology to mean that Americans do not have to die in unnecessary numbers in a war, but there are people in America ready to die for their country if necessary. The world has not seen democracies aroused to anger and fighting a total war for 57 years. I pray that foes of democracies are not stupid enough to arouse them that much again, for those foes will pay a terrible price for such idiocy. Fanaticism has been faced down and defeated by democracies in the past, if necessary that will be the case again. It took two atomic bombs to snap the Japanese out of their suicide cult. What will it take to snap Islam out of its suicide cult?
From Shawn Dudley
Thanks for printing Mr. Amin's article, it's refreshing to see just how clear headed the "other side" is on this issue.
Mr. Amin's point has been made by about a thousand Jacobins, Marxists, and Trotskites before him, which is the West somehow unfarily gained power by "class exploitation", often expressed in colonial forms, and went about genocide to achieve its aims over a 1,500 year period, while those Enlightented revolutionary types simply just use the West's methods against them. (yawn).
What I would love to hear from our opponents is a justification as to just why they're better. There's lots of nitpicking on military actions (the bombing of Tokyo, etc) and so forth, but why is al Queda better than the US Constitution? Give me an explanation, please? No, really, I'd like to hear the actual justification as to why women have to be suppressed so badly, or why freedom of the press can't be allowed, or why I, as a productive citizen, I don't have the right to worship God in the way that I choose, or to keep the fruits of my labor? Why in order to obtain "righteousness" do I have to do it your way? Come on, give it a shot!
Perhaps it's the lack of "better" that motivates the Islamicists to do what they do, and to do it with such gusto and ferocity (i.e. the West is weak because it won't kill children in their beds). I'll take my flaws, thank you. It's the flaws that make us human, and only the Judeo-Christian Western Civilization (with perhaps some exceptions in the East) has proven the capacity and honesty to admit past mistakes and build a more civil society out of them. It takes a big man to admin you're wrong, instead of continually saving face until someone dies.
In any case, if Al-Queda and the Islamisits (not to mention their close cousins in the Arab Fascist category) really want a total clash of civilizations between them and us, far be it from me to get in their way. Quite the contrary, I welcome the challenge. And a surprising number of Americans do as well - I've never seen Americans so continually determined on a single issue. Simply look at the kinds of movies we're taking in these days. I mean, after all of the Hollywood hipe over Spiderman and Star Wars, who is the best selling movie? None other than a Tom Clancy story about a nuclear attack on the US - two weeks running now the #1 movie. This Spring it was "We Were Soliders" and this Winter it was "Black Hawk Down." and "Behind Enemy Lines." None of these movies were particularly great, but Americans tend to use movies to reflect what they'd rather be doing, and in this case, it's grabbing M-16s and showing the real meaning of "Rock and Roll".
Let's take the worse case scenario. Let's suppose the US unilaterally invades Iraq and Iraq and Al-Qaeda use all sorts of exotic weapons to attack Americans and Israelis, while also igniting wars between the Arabs and Israel, and Pakistan and India, all at the same time. Does anyone really think the US is just going to leave the region with its tail between its legs? Why do you think World War II histories are the best sellers in the US? Why do you think "World War II" is in the top 20 for US-based internet search engines? Be careful for what you wish for, you might get it!
Return To Top June 11, 2002
Iraq stirs the Middle East cauldron
From our colleague Richard M. Bennett at AFI Research.
President George Bush is being slowly pushed into a diplomatic corner and his only escape is to present the Middle East with a dynamic initiative to break the current impasse, unfortunately the chances of this US administration coming up with a workable plan seems as remote as ever. However, to do nothing to address the ongoing bloodshed in Israel and the occupied territories will win the US administration few friends and further alienate many of the potential Arab allies Washington will need once the decision to attack Iraq has finally been made. The President appears to have rejected the Saudi peace plan, to find both Arafats request for the early establishment of a Palestinian State and Sharon's slow step by step movement to limited autonomy for the West Bank both unacceptable, while the Egyptian President, Hosni Mubarraks recent attempts at mediation have been largely ignored.
There are now few real alternatives left to consider and the danger remains that Washington may just allow Sharon an increasingly free hand to punish Arafat and hope that the constant pain of Israeli military reprisals for suicide bombings will cause the Palestinian people to accept the restricted terms Jerusalem may offer.
Arafat has limited his response so far to the increasing pressure from Washington and the recent visits of Egypt's Intelligence chief General Omar Suleiman and the CIA Director George Tenet, for a radical overhaul and rationalization of his chaotic security structure to the appointment of retired General Abdel-Razzaq al-Yahya as the new Interior Minister and effective head of a somewhat streamlined security apparatus. This will not however necessarily be taken as a positive sign in Jerusalem, for al-Yahya is known to be pro-Iraqi with close links to its Intelligence Services. Arafat has had to accept that Saddam Husseins supporters are likely to gain in influence within the Palestinian Authority, though this is in reality merely the culmination of a process that has been underway for some considerable time as Iraqi weapons and money have been flooding into Palestinian controlled areas. Iraq's supporters among the Palestinian militants appeared to have played little part in the resistance to the Israeli operations of the last few months, few were captured or killed and only a small quantity of the arms known to have been smuggled in were discovered.
War with Iraq may have moved closer
Saddam Husseins standing is now set to increase in the region and those Palestinians groups he supports remain the best armed and most capable of providing a cohesive military force. However in a separate but closely linked development, there appears to have a reversal of previous appreciation's of the Iraqi strategic threat. The United States appears to have quietly conceded that the Baghdad regime is now very close to the deployment of effective weapons of mass destruction and these probably include a crude nuclear device. The time-scale for an invasion of Iraq had slipped to the end of 2002, early 2003 or even perhaps put off indefinitely. However recent evidence from sources close to the US intelligence community suggests that the Pentagon has been discreetly ratchetting up military preparedness and has built up a powerful presence in the Gulf in anticipation of at least a limited strike against the Iraqi regime.
Both the CIA and the US Special Forces have stepped up their arms deliveries and training programs in Kurdish controlled areas and it is probable that Turkey has been persuaded to allow a considerable Kurdish revolt against Baghdad to be controlled and supported from bases on the border with Iraq. Taken in conjunction with the build up of Special Forces and conventional troops in Kuwait and the Gulf States, President Bush may soon have more options open to him in his determination to overthrow the Iraqi leader. Growing Iraqi influence in Palestine and the resulting alarm in Jerusalem may well force Washington's hand and a limited war against Iraq within the next few months can no longer be ruled out. Largely based around an internal revolt encouraged and supported by widespread US Special Forces operations and backed by a massive air campaign, the war though falling short of an all out ground campaign would still be a dangerous venture for the US to undertake at this time. Support for the United States amongst even its traditional Arab allies is waning and a number of those states castigated by Washington as part of the 'axis of evil' may feel it wise to swallow their normal enmity to Saddam Hussein and support Iraq, if only on the basis that 'if you don't 'hang together, you will surely hang alone'.
Though the prospect of co-operation in the face of a US assault on Iraq has been considered unlikely by many in the light of decades of Arab disunity, evidence has mounted recently that fear of America has created a new pan-Arab attitude to defence, if only temporarily. Iran, Iraq and Syria are now sharing intelligence and military information, with joint defence committees having been established and improved co-operation is also evident in the increasingly free flow of vital strategic goods into Iraq via its closest neighbours. Even Saddams long term enemy, Saudi Arabia is now taking an increasingly pro-Iraqi stance and it is Saudi influence that could finally scupper many of Washington's long-term plans by organizing Iraq's re-acceptance into the mainstream Arab community. Any such major success for Iraq's diplomatic offensive to win friends and influence Arab leaders would severely undermine Washington's ability to gain Muslim or International acceptance for the necessity of overthrowing Saddams regime. Though the United States has bluntly threatened to unilaterally go to war if necessary, that may no longer be a viable option in the light of the multi-national co-operation the United States will still need in further pursuing the War on International terrorism.
Return To Top June 11, 2002
June 10, 2002
Nuclear Rationality: by Mr. K. Subhramanyam
What the US Seeks to Destroy
India and Pakistan Sector Balances: West Jammu and Kashmir, North Ladakh June 8
India versus Pakistan Sector Balances: Jammu June 7
Indian Army reports 60% increase in infiltration from Pakistan June 7
India and Pakistan: Latest Developments on Deescalation Proposals June 7
India versus Pakistan Sector Balances: the Punjab June 6
India versus Pakistan Sector Balances: the Desert June 5
Nuclear Rationality: by Mr. K. Subhramanyam
Forwarded by Amitava Dutta with a note:
Following is the full text of
K SUBRAHMANYAM's editoral in
The Economic Times, a Times of India publication.
IMHO, I think it is very significant,
for two reasons:
(a) coming from KS himself,
I take it as the leadership
in Delhi openly calling
USA's bluff of fear mongering
(b) putting it on the editorial page
of the ET, the business community
has shown its determination in
facing the threat squarely.
The visiting US defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld is
reported to have opposed SALT II in the 1970s and
frustrated Dr Kissinger's attempts to progress towards
arms reduction.
He is today the driving force behind the missile
defence and a strong advocate of US dominance of
outerspace.
According to media reports he is being sent to the
subcontinent to teach Pakistan and India about the
harsh realities of a nuclear exchange. As is to be
expected a section of the Indian media have tried
their best to raise nuclear scares and a few Indian
strategists have doubts about India's strategic
acumen.
Therefore it is necessary to recall the evolution of
Indian nuclear strategic thought and the rationality
of the Indian nuclear doctrine which is being
frequently quoted by our policy makers though they
have not bothered to formalise it for over 30 months.
The country which brought out officially the first
book on horrors of the use of nuclear weapons was
India in the latter 50s and the book on effects of
nuclear explosions was published by the DRDO under the
leadership of Prof D S Kothari.
It became the standard text book for the campaign
against nuclear testing led by Prof Linus Pauling in
the US and the campaign for nuclear disarmament in the
United Kingdom.
Delhi decided on nuclear option when the US chief of
staff recommended that no nuclear guarantee could be
given to India as it would annoy Pakistan and soon
thereafter came the Pakistan-US-China line up in 1971
and the intimidatory US Enterprise mission.
Before Mrs Gandhi gave formal direction to DAE for the
Pokhran of 1974 Pakistan had already decided to go for
nuclear weapons in the meeting held in January, 1972
at Multan under the chairmanship of President Bhutto.
Pakistan reached its nuclear capability in 1987 and
this was reported to Washington by CIA operative,
Richard Barlow.
In 1990 when Pakistan was perceived by US intelligence
to be preparing for a strike on India, unlike in the
present occasion, the Senior Bush, as president
despatched the Robert Gates mission to warn Pakistan.
He did not order a travel advisory.
The US pressure did have its effect on Pakistan. India
has been fully aware of the nature of nuclear war and
its horrible impact.
Long before Western authors and US defence
intelligence agency came up with their scenarios, Dr
Sampuran Singh published one scenario in late 1960s
and General Sundarji s second one in early 90s in his
book ``Blind men of Hindustan''.
Secretary Rumsfeld may save his time on making
presentation on the effects of nuclear war and command
and control problems and use it more effectively to
discuss what US and India can jointly do to discipline
Pakistan's nuclear sabre-rattling.
The Indian nuclear doctrine makes it clear that this
country would only retaliate after it has been hit and
even that under specific orders of the prime minister
or his designated successor.
There is no delegated power to any commanders as had
been done in the US and the Soviet Union which made
the Cuban missile crisis a uniquely dangerous one.
India does not subscribe to doctrines of nuclear war
fighting and the Indian nuclear capability is intended
solely for deterrence and retaliation.
Pakistan on its own admission had conveyed threat of
use of nuclear weapon thrice and perhaps May 2002
should be considered as the fourth attempt at nuclear
threat.
Rumsfeld will be reassuring the US as well as Indian
populations if in the light of successive missile
tests by Pakistan, Islamabad's attempt at nuclear
blackmail and the presence of Al Qaeda and Taliban
leaderships in Pakistan and their continuing ability
to operate.
He discusses what steps US proposes to take to ensure
that there will no nuclear terrorism. It must be
recalled that the Al Qaeda men who converted
fuel-laden jet air-liners into missiles with fuel-air
explosives are technologically clued-in people.
This is a matter of immediate concern to the
Americans. Will Mr Rumsfeld be able to find out
whether Pakistanis will be replacing the Ghauri
missile they fired with new ones from North Korea,
that member of evil axis? Does it enhance the US
capability in calling North Korea names while keeping
silent when that North Korea supplied missile is test
fired in Pakistan?
Rumsfeld may have reasons to thank India for the
Indian army deployment on the border. The entire Al
Qaeda and Taliban slipped into Pakistan before India
deployed its forces and it was done presumably with
the full knowledge and connivance of Pakistani army.
Therefore getting the Pakistani army away from
Pakistan-Afghanistan border will reduce the risks of
intelligence on US operations being tipped off to al
Qaeda and Taliban.
Rumsfeld has the unenviable task of explaining to US
Congress and people why all US operations have so far
not produced any results in Afghan-Pak border. He
talks of Al Qaeda exploiting the Indo-Pak tension.
In that event there has to be much closer coordination
between India and US. But the US succumbing to Pak
nuclear blackmail and the panicky attempt to evacuate
Americans in India even from Bangalore, Calcutta and
Chennai etc have damaged trust between the two
countries.
Therefore the first task of Rumsfeld in Delhi will be
to carry out damage limitation for the events of May
31, 2001. Mr Rumsfeld of today does not carry the same
credibility as he did in October-November 2001, having
allowed the Al Qaeda to slip through.
In spite of that Rumsfeld's visit is very timely since
he has to listen and answer a lot of queries in Delhi
about US policy towards Pak nuclear blackmail and
strategy to vanquish Al Qaeda and not be outsmarted
for the second time as happened in 1989-90.
It will be useful to have his assessment why 20 out of
22 Al Qaeda leaders in Pakistan have escaped the US
dragnet over the last seven months. Rumsfeld will be a
very busy man during his short stay in Delhi.
Return To Top June 10, 2002
What the USA seeks to destroy
This article is written by A.H Amin.
[Your editor would like to make clear that while he may not agree with some of Major Amin's views on the United States, Major Amin has a right to be heard. His article is likely to offend many. Its nonetheless important to see that his rage and hopelessness is quite representative of many Muslims today. The same rage and hopelessness drive Islamic terrorists. We invite letters in rebuttal, and promise to publish them expeditiously and without editing except for appropriate language.]
The three cardinal attributes of todays geopolitics are " globalization ",
"non ideological international themes" and "emphasis on economics" rather than
"ideological conflict" as the key theme in international relations . It is
another thing that below the surface "ideology remains a key issue", "the desire
to enslave smaller or weaker states by larger or stronger states" remains the
key issue and "globalisation" is but another name of capitalism practiced at a
global scale !
The so called unipolar system also has limitations and is being repeatedly
challenged, if not conventionally, then unconventionally as proved by events of
9/11 ! The famous philosopher Toffler may have re-defined power but human nature
remains the same as it was 2,500 years ago ! US Think Tanks and so called
experts may advance subtle thesis but the underlying conflict is the same i.e a
West which adopted Eastern Christianity and refashioned it as per Barbarian
ideals versus an East with a different mindset and a different set of values !
Present USA and its camp followers the so called G-7 are the ultimate result of
a process which started in 19th century and was based on exploitation whether it
was practised internally as class exploitation or externally as colonial
exploitation ! Whether it was Korea or China exploited by Japan or Red Indians
exterminated like flies by White Americans or South American Natives exploited
by Spaniards or Portueguese.
Suddenly in 1789 the Old Order was challenged by the
French Revolution which was however soon corrupted by Napoleons ambition and
adventurism. The most serious threat to the "Order of Exploitation" came from
Marxist philosophers who gave a philosophy which found adherents in all five
continents .That this philosophy was corrupted and misused is not the
issue. There is no denying the fact that Revolution in Europe in 1917-18 weakened
the Old Order ! The USSR whatever its negative points was a challenge for
Colonial Britain and Colonial Japan and did play a major role in the demise of
Colonial Japan in China and in the struggle of Arabs and many African nations
against Colonial European powers and against the Zionist state of Israel !
Without USSR military aid the Arabs could not have survived Israeli hegemonism !
This is an irrefutable historical reality !
While the USA was miserly in military
aid to Pakistan the USSR was most generous in military aid to the Arabs. That
Sadat betrayed his benefactors and switched to USA is another matter and the
struggle for power in Egypt is not yet over ! What the Arabs gained and lost
from USA is however very clear ! If the issue was seriously contested till 1973
with the switch to USA all that the Arabs got was Sabra, Shatila and Jenin ! And
many more Jenins will come the way things are going !
Now the hard realities which have caused sleepless nights to many statesman and
so called political thinkers in the West . Long ago the West's present dilemma
was summed up by one of its greatest historian Gibbon in the following words
"Yet this apparent security should not tempt us to forget that new enemies and
unknown dangers may possibly arise from some obscure people, scarcely visible in
the map of the world"…in the same paragraph Gibbon cited the example of the
Arabs who had "languished in poverty and contempt" till the advent of Islam when
in Gibbon's words Islam " breathed into those same bodies the soul of
enthusiasm".
When modern US thinkers with links with US State decision making and analytical
bodies state with confidence that "ideology is no longer fashionable" and that
"international terrorism" is the key issue who are they fooling ! When a Daisy
Cutter does the killing this is a war against terrorism but when a suicide
bomber strikes this is a "terrorist outrage" ! Sadat was an angel because he
collaborated and inflicted a greater damage to Arab and Muslim cause than Halaku
Khan who destroyed Baghdad ! Mubarak is an angel because he is keeping under
control those accursed extremists in Egypt ! If this line of thinking is to be
followed, whenever any White Man or a Jewish man dies it is terrorism while
whenever any non White or Muslim dies this is casualties inflicted in sheer self
defence in the war against terrorism ! When the USSR occupied Afghanistan this
was an evil empire but today when 25,000 American troops sit in the Persian
Gulf,5,000 in Prince Sultan Base near Riyadh and the Headquarter of the Fifth
US Fleet in Bahrain this is a friendly occupation ! When the USSR army fought
against Afghan Mujahideen it was evil but when US and British Forces hunt Al
Qaeda it is a war against terrorism ! Babrak Karmal was a Soviet
Stooge, Najibullah was also a Soviet Stooge but what are the Kings and Presidents
who are protected from their own people and neighbors by US Forces ! A Stooge is
a man who was protected by USSR and a King or Emir or a president protected by
US Forces or US aid is a perfect patriot !
Take the "Firebombing of Tokyo" on the fateful night of 9/10 March 1945 ! On
this night the US Airforce in the proud words of an American writer "conducted
the most destructive air raid in history". Sixteen Square miles of Tokyo were
destroyed and some 83,793 Japanese civilian were killed mostly by third degree
burns while some 40,918 were injured ! US General Ira.C.Eaker proudly exclaimed
"It made a lot of sense to kill Skilled Workers" ! Compare this with US position
on 9/11 ! If for a moment we accept that 9/11 was a great outrage in which some
3,000 were killed not all of them skilled (!!) , what was Tokyo Raid of March
1945 ! Look at the shameless double standards ! An adulterous mixture of ethics
twisted to call one act just and the other unjust ! What intellectual
prostitution by so called advanced refined nations ! If this is ethics we may
have none !
There is a subtle motivation here ! An ulterior geopolitical agenda ! The West
still fears ideology which it abandoned after 1945 in favour of shameless
materialism ! It fears men who cannot be bought, who have no fear for the
tommorrow,who cannot be stopped by a NATO or the wide Atlantic or wider Pacific
! USSR may have been a more synthetic state but the men motivated to die without
motivated by the CIA pumped dollar via Silent Soldiers is a more dangerous
specie ! Enters the Asian and African Collaborator Regimes! Liberal
Presidents, subtle Emirs, Egalitarian Kings , all mustered like Sepoy Jahan Khan
in the First World War to fight the War against Terror !
The Soviets were more naïve if less morally defective than the American
decision makers! The Americans seek to accomplish enslavement through more
sophisticated methods . Thus one of their intellectuals states in an article that
"unlike centuries past, when war was the great arbiter, today the most interesting
type of power do not come out of the barrel of the gun". Today this man says
"there is a much bigger payoff in "getting others to want what you want"! And
there is no shortage of collaborators, ambitious men who usurped power whether it
was after the downfall of Ottoman Empire with British or french money or in
Egypt or Pakistan or in Indonesia!
What perplexes the decision makers in the USA is not that extremists are a
threat but how they have mastered strategic techniques which enabled them to
cross the Atlantic or strike at will in an area from Aden till Karachi or from
Basilan in Philipines till Pentagon! What Doeniz failed to accomplish with his
dreaded U-Boat Submarines in the North Atlantic alone in Second World War has
been achieved by private warriors without a conventional state. The so called
terrorists may be bad guys in the eyes of the West but they are definitely
motivated and possess operational insight and strategic talent!
Somewhere deep inside the US decision makers are at a loss to admit as to how
with a 30 Billion USD intelligence budget , 13 Federal Organisations dealing with
Intelligence and some 30,000 eavesdroppers employed by USA's National Security
Agency was the Al Qaeda able to strike! Compare 30 Billion USD per year spent
since two decades with may be 4 Billion USD lost in 9/11 !
If the East or the Islamic World has any edge over the West it is in
willingness to sacrifice rather than materialism and selfishness ! What the West
and particularly the USA fears is not nuclear weapons but men motivated by
ideology ! Men who cannot be bought like the so many Emirs, Kings and Military
Presidents from Morocco till Pakistan!
The world has not changed from Gibbons times. The New Barbarians as the USA sees
the Muslim radicals are more dangerous because they cannot be bought ! Because
they have operational talent and strategic acumen ! Because they do not beg like
Sadat for a Camp David but fight with their limbs rather than Stingers! What
the US seeks is destruction of ideology which as per one theme presently floated
in the so called prestigious National Defence College at Islamabad is no longer
fashionable !
This is the Clash of Civilizations and will continue till this world exists or
till the USA discovers a new planet where human beings can survive and to which
the Americans will migrate after all the mineral resources of this world are
exhausted and we are left to die without water or fuel !
If this is so and if low intensity war is the only way in which the
conventionally weaker forces can defeat the conventionally stronger forces then
so be it ! If extremism in thought or ideology is out of fashion and out of
favour with USA and its camp followers, so be it ! If we are in any case
condemned to be sub humans in a world order dominated by the G-7 and have no
other recourse but to fight with bomb, dagger or suicide explosive pack then so
be it ! Jala kay Mashal I Jaan , Hum Junoon Sifaat Chalay ! Jo Ghar ko aag lagaay
, hamarey saath chalay !
[The translation of the above is:
Burning the material possessions which surround us, we go like soldiers to war!
He who is willing to burn his house, can come with us!
Please let us know if we have this right. Editor]
Return To Top June 10, 2002
No issue on Sunday June 9, 2002
June 8, 2002
India and Pakistan Sector Balances: West Jammu and Kashmir, North Ladakh
India versus Pakistan Sector Balances: Jammu June 7
Indian Army reports 60% increase in infiltration from Pakistan June 7
India and Pakistan: Latest Developments on Deescalation Proposals June 7
India versus Pakistan Sector Balances: the Punjab June 6
India versus Pakistan Sector Balances: the Desert June 5
India and Pakistan Sector Balances: West Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh
On India's side, the West Jammu and Kashmir area covers the subsectors Naushera, Rajori, Poonch, and Uri, Tithwal and Kupwara. The mountains start rising north of Chaamb, reach 4000 meters and continue at about this height to Kupwara.
In peacetime, Pakistan keeps 13 brigades of 4 battalions each, or the infantry equivalent of 5 ½ infantry divisions, along this front. [We are assuming some interchanges between units so that the Chaamb area, now covered by the Pakistan corps out of Rawalpindi, is taken care of by the Sialkot Corps and Army Reserve North, leaving Rawalpindi Corps to focus on West Jammu and Kashmir. This scheme need not be implemented in real life, but for simplicity we keep to the assumption.]
India keeps two divisions with 8-9 brigades, plus two brigades of a third division, so that India has 10-11 brigades opposite Pakistan, equal to about 4 standard infantry divisions. In the winter 2001-02 crisis, India moved in another six brigades, so that it had about 14-15 brigades. This brought India to parity.
The question is, however, how many brigades will India need to assign to securing its lines of communication? In 1965, it deployed almost half its available battalions to hunt down infiltrators and protect lines of communication. It may not have to deploy as many now. For one thing, India has a large number of IS battalions in the region. Nonetheless, given that in the event of war Pakistan will start pushing its several thousand fighters rescued or escaped from Afghanistan across the border, its probably wise to assume three brigades will be required to back up the IS forces. And Pakistan can reinforce with one reserve division from its Peshawar corps is it forgoes other options. India may find itself in a position of serious inferiority in Kashmir.
In North Ladakh, India deploys four brigades in peacetime. Pakistan deploys seven. This does not worry India because it inevitably brings up a reinforcing division - and with this division in Ladakh, we have "deployed" 31 of India's 34 divisions, leaving just one under strength division for the East Ladakh border with China and three divisions for the Northeast. There is nothing left, unless one assumes India recklessly decides to vacate the China border entirely.
India could, then, bring in more troops. Wont this tip the Kashmir balance in its favor? Not really, because we left out of the calculation Pakistan's considerable number of Mujahid battalions that will deploy not just in Kashmir, but in every sector of the front. These battalions fall somewhere between regular and paramilitary forces. They are composed of young, fit men, stiffened by Pakistan Army officers and NCOs, and will probably also embody army reservists. They are reasonably well trained and ideologically motivated. We don't know how they will perform in combat: probably, as is to be expected, some will do very well and some will do very badly, with the rest falling in between.
Its likely that the Kashmir balance will remain in Pakistan's favor, not enough for it to make any major gains, but certainly enough to stop India from making any.
So where does this lengthy analysis leave us?
The only conclusion we can draw with any confidence that the land situation between the two countries is, for all purposes, one of parity. India has no superiority that can be translated into an advantage for a short war.
In a long war, the situation changes because India has at least five times the GNP of Pakistan and an unlimited quantity of manpower. The exact demographics elude your editor for the moment, but its likely India could deploy 10 million men and still only use ten percent of the eligible pool of men between 18 and 28. Even at $13 billion annually on defense, India spends less than 3% of its GNP. It's even possible that Pakistan will, within 4 weeks, start running of ammunition and replacement stocks. No one should count on this, however, as no one can predict what the reaction of the Muslim world will be at this time in history if another Muslim country is getting beat up by a non-Muslim country.
A long war, however, is inconceivable because India lacks the political will. This is how it got into the current mess in the Kashmir in the first place. And we have 55 years of history to prove our contention about lack of will, to say nothing of the disgracefully waffling behavior of the last six months.
Return To Top June 8, 2002
June 7, 2002
India versus Pakistan Sector Balances: Jammu
Indian Army reports 60% increase in infiltration from Pakistan
India and Pakistan: Latest Developments on Deescalation Proposals
India versus Pakistan Sector Balances: the Punjab June 6
India versus Pakistan Sector Balances: the Desert June 5
December 3, 1971: The Day Pakistan Preempted - but Actually Did Not June 3
Letter to the Editor from Johann Price
India's Lack of Good Military Options June 2
India and Pakistan: Crisis Management and Warfighting Styles June 1
Washington's Silly Season May 31
Pakistan and its western border May 29
Indian Troop Strength In Kashmir May 26
India versus Pakistan Sector Balances: Jammu
The Jammu-Pathankot sector in the Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh Theatre is called by various names on Pakistan's side of the border, but generally, taken together, the designations Sialkot Sector (western half) and Shakergarh (eastern half) are descriptively accurate.
On India's side there is a narrow corridor running from Pathankot to Jammu; behind this corridor the foothills start climbing. India has no depth here. On Pakistan's side, the Shakergarh has excellent interior lines of communications, permitting rapid switches of troops from one side to the other. Sialkot Sector also has excellent communications.
Both sides protect their side of the border with a holding corps. India normally has three infantry divisions here for 110 kilometers, the densest deployment of its troops on any front. Counting extra brigades, there are ten infantry and two armored brigades. On Pakistan's side, there is an identical deployment, but the southern end of the Shakergarh area abuts the northern end of the Punjab sector. India can use the northern-most of its three divisions in the Punjab sector against Shakergarh by thinning out troops facing Pakistan's Lahore front. So 14-15 Indian brigades can be brought to bear against the 12 Pakistani. Except that Pakistan's interior lines neutralize the Indian benefit of numbers.
The operational variants are many for this sector. In the winter crisis, anticipating that Pakistan might attack from Sialkot to form a southern pincer into Kashmir, India moved a corps HQ from the east and one division to join up with the Indian division facing Shakergarh. This shortened the area of responsibility of the holding corps. Also, India brought in a strike corps and at least two divisions into the Jammu area, threatening Pakistan with an offensive of its own.
At that time the number of brigades deployed against Shakergarh/Sialkot rose to 23-24, an unprecedently dense deployment in the India-Pakistan situation, and at one division every 20 kilometers, a dense deployment by any modern standard. This, however, gave India no great advantage.
Pakistan
countered by bringing into the area its HQ Army Reserve Center and one division from the Afghan border, and swung its Army Reserve North of three divisions (four armored, six infantry brigades) into position to counter any Indian offensive. So the Pakistani total also rose, to 22 brigades. Because of the strong fixed defense on Pakistan's side, this was not just parity, there arose a valid concern that Pakistan could hold the Indian attack with smaller forces than the attacker was using, and employ the rest of its forces here to attack Pathankot.
Pakistan in 1971 used three brigades to defend the Shakergarh area against approximately 8 Indian brigades, including a 2-1 superiority in armor, and forced on the Indians a slow crawl forward of one kilometer a day. There is no reason it could not do so again.
When we bring our comparison to a conclusion, we will see that in Kashmir and in Ladakh India also has no advantage in combat units. And it is most important to understand that India is not used to fighting Pakistan with anything less than a clear superiority of numbers. It can be argued on past experience that Pakistan, for the first time enjoying a rough parity, is actually in a better position to attack than the Indians. This is not the wisdom we have been subjected to in the Indian and Western media of late. There is, however, nothing your editor can do when media idiots, the State Department, the Pentagon, and the think tanks talk of India's 2-1 superiority. Does anyone really believe that if India had this margin it would not have used force against Pakistan years ago?
Return To Top June 7, 2002
Indian Army reports 60% increase in infiltration from Pakistan
Fowarded by Amitava Dutta.
Source:
www.intelligenceonline.net.
A mid-term Indian Army assessment
of terrorist infiltration in
Jammu and Kashmir has revealed a
dramatic change in the number and
character of terrorist infiltration
during January-May 2002.
The report estimates around 1,000
Pakistani terrorists have infiltrated
into the Indian side between
January-May.
The corresponding figures for the
same period last year was around
600 terrorists.
Army officials disclosed that while
some 800 terrorists took the
assistance of the Pakistan army and
ISI to cross the border, 80-120 other
terrorists crossed the border on their
own.
Indian security forces have gunned
down 572 terrorists and injured 239
terrorists in separate encounters.
Some of the injured terrorists
surrendered later but the remaining
are missing.
The mid-term assessment suggests
that terrorists have infiltrated in
batches more into the Jammu sector
than Kashmir and Ladakh.
Officials said that this year terrorists
have abandoned their traditional
infiltration routes and opened new
entry points in Jammu to reach
Kashmir.
The assessment reveals more
infiltration from Mirpur and
Kotli sectors of
Pakistan-occupied Kashmir
into such Jammu regions as
Nowshera, Poonch,
Bhimbergali and
Krishnaghati.
The infiltrators then have
found their way either to
Srinagar through Sonemarg
and Tosha Maidan range or
to Samba and Doda regions
of Jammu.
The report has further
estimated that around 70 per
cent of the total infiltrators
have Al-Qaeda links and
have undergone terrorist
training in Afghanistan prior
to the ouster of the Taliban in
December 2001.
These infiltrated terrorists
have launched suicide
missions and high-risk
attacks on camps and
headquarters of Indian
security forces in Jammu and
Kashmir.
Top army officials said that
the Indian Army would make
a half-yearly review of
terrorist infiltration in Jammu
and Kashmir by June-end to
collect evidence of Pakistani
cross-border terrorism in
Jammu and Kashmir.
Officials said that the army
would compile figures and
information obtained by its
monthly and even weekly
assessments from January to
June 2002 for an on-the-spot
assessment of terrorist
activities in Kashmir.
Indian Army chief General
S.Padmanabhan has directed
all units deployed along the
India-Pakistan border and
engaged in counter-terrorism
operations in Jammu and
Kashmir to pre-empt
terrorists' strikes rather than
retaliating to them.
In a special military
communiqué to brigade,
regimental and corps
headquarters, General
Padmanabhan has ordered for
effective and accurate
interception of terrorist radio
signals.
[If this report is correct, it indicates a major and significant shift in India's CI strategy. Editor.]
Return To Top June 7, 2002
India and Pakistan: Latest Developments on Deescalation Proposals
Forwarded by our editor Johann Price
India offers Pakistan a face-saving way forward
The Independent.
By Peter Popham in Delhi
It was nicely timed. Two days of ritualistic denunciations and stony stares had given Kazakhstan's first shot at a regional security conference a doomed look. Then, on the final morning - after studiously avoiding even a handshake with Pakistan's President, General Pervez Musharraf - the Indian Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, pulled a rabbit out of the hat.
It was a modest proposal for a way to monitor infiltration across Kashmir's Line of Control. "Joint patrolling can be held by India and Pakistan," he told the final press conference. "We want to move from a path of confrontation to a path of co-operation. Once infiltration stops, terrorist camps are dismantled across the border and verification is done, we can consider other steps that will take us towards de-escalation."
This was the first positive idea India has floated for reducing tensions that have led the two nuclear-armed neighbours to the brink of war. Islamic radicals cross from Pakistani-controlled Kashmir into the Indian-controlled part of the state under cover of Pakistani army fire and with the help of Pakistani military intelligence. India has amassed 750,000 troops on the 1,800-mile-long border and has threatened war unless Pakistan ends the infiltrations.
Publicly, Pakistan denies giving practical support to the infiltrators, though privately it has recently conceded that such support exists. Under enormous pressure from the West, General Musharraf has claimed that "nothing is happening across the Line of Control". And this week, for the first time in the present crisis, India privately agreed that infiltration had recently dwindled.
But the challenge from the Indian point of view is to stop it permanently, and to reach common agreement that it has in fact stopped. Only then, India insists, can de-escalation begin and talks with Pakistan - on the future of Kashmir as well as other issues - recommence.
But who is to say the infiltration has truly ceased? This was the teaser to which Mr Vajpayee's proposal was addressed. The obvious people to monitor what is or is not happening across the LoC are the foreign army officers assigned to the United Nations military observers' group for India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP), who have been stationed on both sides of the LoC since 1949 for exactly that purpose.
But in 1971, with the Simla Accord, India and Pakistan agreed to settle their differences over Kashmir bilaterally, and since then India has refused to allow UNMOGIP to perform meaningful monitoring. For the same reason - an allergy to the internationalisation of the Kashmir issue - Mr Vajpayee said yesterday: "It is not practical to allow a third country to see whether infiltration is taking place, and it is also not needed."
Pakistan's initial reaction to Vajpayee's initiative was cool and guarded. Pakistan's Foreign Ministry said: "The proposal is not new. Given the state of Indo-Pakistani relations, mechanisms for joint patrolling are unlikely to work."
Pakistan's minister of information, Nisar Memon, said: "This idea can be tabled during a dialogue. We will be happy to discuss with India all issues, including suggestions that they may have to reduce tensions and resolve disputes."
US-British force could be sent to defuse tensions in Kashmir
The Independent.
By Kim Sengupta
The United States is to propose a joint US-British military monitoring force for Kashmir in an attempt to defuse the threat of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan.
The helicopter-borne troops would be used to patrol the disputed border. India has long complained that militants infiltrate Indian Kashmir from the Pakistani side.
The US Defence Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, will put forward the proposal for a "verification force" when he visits the subcontinent next week, according to defence and diplomatic sources. President George Bush telephoned Pakistan's President, General Pervez Musharraf, and India's Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, last night to impress on them the need to "take steps to reduce the risk of war".
About 500 troops would be needed for a verification mission, according to diplomatic sources, and they would work with Indian and Pakistani security forces.
Washington and London believe the force may be welcomed by General Musharraf, because of the opposition he faces from elements of his army and intelligence service that are sympathetic to the insurgents and have helped their raids.
Pakistan wants to internationalise the Kashmir dispute and would point to US-UK military involvement as evidence that it had succeeded. India, which opposes internationalisation, may still support a British and American force because its role would be strictly defined and would make it harder for militants to infiltrate.
An Indian proposal for joint patrols by Indian and Pakistani soldiers was rejected yesterday by Pakistan.
Mr Rumsfeld, on a visit to London yesterday, highlighted the need for urgent action. "We have a stake in those two countries not setting themselves back. The world has an interest in this."
[Miss Sengupta is probably over-optimistic on the chances of the Indians accepting a US/UK force. Johann Price]
Return To Top June 7, 2002
June 6, 2002
India versus Pakistan Sector Balances: the Punjab
India versus Pakistan Sector Balances: the Desert June 5
December 3, 1971: The Day Pakistan Preempted - but Actually Did Not June 3
Letter to the Editor from Johann Price
India's Lack of Good Military Options June 2
India and Pakistan: Crisis Management and Warfighting Styles June 1
Washington's Silly Season May 31
Pakistan and its western border May 29
Indian Troop Strength In Kashmir May 26
India versus Pakistan Sector Balances: the Punjab
The Punjab Theatre runs from Pathankot down to Ganganager. On both sides, up to Ferozepur/Suliemanke, it is characterized by very dense fixed fortifications that have been continuously improved since 1947. Armored movement on scales larger than a regiment is difficult and dangerous.
Blockhouses are impervious to direct hits by the heaviest artillery. Minefields, wire, and above all, one canal after another reduce movement to a slow crawl. Canals are built with sides too steep for ingress/egress of amphibian vehicles. Most canals require a serious bridging effort, made more complicated by canal defenses and booby traps. Also, between Pathankot and Suliemanke the Ravi River forms a formidable obstacle. An increasing population density on both sides has contributed to a continued expansion of built-up area. What was a village in 1965 or 1971 is a small town today; the small towns of thirty years ago are growing cities. Not only has the population doubled in India, it has more than doubled in Pakistan, and both countries have some of the highest urbanization rates in the world.
From Suliemanke to Ganganager the ground is less built up; canals are fewer, and the conditions for large-scale armored movement ideal - except in the two month monsoon. Even in the monsoon the problem is the many streams, ditches, rivulets that are now full of run-off, rather than the ground itself. Wheeled vehicles get into trouble off-road, but the ground it still hard enough to bear tracks.
In the North Punjab, India deploys one three-division oversized corps of 14 brigades, of which 12 are infantry, one is armored, and one is mechanized. Pakistan deploys a corps of two divisions with nine infantry and one tank brigades. Because of the manner in which the border is drawn around Ferozepur, India needs more troops than Pakistan to defend its side. At Pathankot, because the road and rail junction run so close to the border and this is the sole rail line to Jammu, India needs a strong defense to ensure Pakistan does not cut the line of communication. For both these reasons, the 14:10 advantage India has in terms of brigades actually translates into parity.
The South Punjab is where the fighting will occur in the Punjab Theatre. Both sides have a holding corps to protect their side of the border. India has two partially mechanized and one infantry divisions, a total of 11 brigades including three armored. Pakistan has one light armored and two infantry divisions with between 8 and 9 brigades depending on the status of its new raisings.
Neither holding corps poses a danger to its opposing adversary. The danger comes from Pakistan's clear signal that it will use its Army Reserve South, a strike corps of two divisions plus another one available (either part of the corps or a GHQ reserve), to launch an offensive in the area. The land on India's side is valuable in itself; the greater danger is that if Pakistan makes a breakthrough, it can turn north, and running along the Beas River, trap all Indian forces in the Punjab plus isolate the Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh Theatre from the rest of India.
There are variations on this theme. Pakistan has indicated in past exercises and the winter 2001-2002 mobilization crisis that it may use its Army Reserve Center to aid ARS, most likely by sending ARC against Pathankot, aiming to create a pincer.
If Pakistan actually executed such a move, India would not just sit there calmly and say: "Oh yes, Pakistan has sent four divisions against us so we'll pull four from the Desert offensive." Given the fog of war, and the disadvantage of having conceded the initiative, India would have to respond with a disproportionate reinforcement. We noted yesterday that even a proportionate shift of troops northward puts paid to India's desert offensive; a disproportionate shift creates even more problems.
India can definitely create a problem for Pakistan by launching a desert offensive. Unless Pakistan loses its nerve, however, Pakistan can respond with a Punjab offensive. The Punjab is much more sensitive for India than the desert is for Pakistan. So the desert offensive is not a particularly attractive option.
Now, one of the odd things is that so many Indian analysts themselves keep talking about a desert offensive as if the logistics alone would not stall the offensive. The Indian Army, however, has known for decades that the desert is not the place to attack. Rather, India's big offensive should come between Bikaner and Ganganager. The logistics then become practicable, but the relative balance does not change.
The two opposing armies are so closely matched in terms of training, tactical and operational leadership, weapons, logistic limitations, intelligence limitations, war stocks and so on that no easy decision on the battlefield is possible for either side. If a war were to break out, it would be an old-fashioned war, with the adversaries slogging it out for weeks before any strategic gain was made by either side. We do not want to get into the politics of an Indo-Pakistan war, but to talk of a long war is not realistic.
Tomorrow we'll look at the balance in the Jammu-Pathankot and Sialkot part of the Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh theatre.
Return To Top June 6, 2002
June 5, 2002
India versus Pakistan Sector Balances: the Desert
India target of PSYWAR June 4
December 3, 1971: The Day Pakistan Preempted - but Actually Did Not June 3
Letter to the Editor from Johann Price
India's Lack of Good Military Options June 2
India and Pakistan: Crisis Management and Warfighting Styles June 1
Washington's Silly Season May 31
Pakistan and its western border May 29
Indian Troop Strength In Kashmir May 26
India versus Pakistan Sector Balances: the Desert
The front between India and Pakistan can be divided into three theatres:
- Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh
- Punjab
- Desert
The Desert Theatre can be approximately reckoned to begin from south of Ft. Abbas in Pakistan/Ganganager in India. Both sides have one holding corps each for the desert.
In the winter 2001-2002 mobilization, India brought in two strike corps plus an extra division. Pakistan brought in a reserve corps, and its southern strike corps was also available if required.
India had 2 armored, 2 partially mechanized, four infantry, and one mountain divisions, plus two tank, one mechanized, and three infantry brigades. In total, there were nine tank, one mechanized, three mountain, and 15 infantry brigades, or 28 brigades. [This is not a precise figure because India, like another army, freely attaches and detaches brigades from divisions and corps.]
On Pakistan's side, the informed public was under the impression that Pakistan had one armored, one partially mechanized, and four infantry divisions; this added up to five armored, one mechanized, one anti-tank, and 15 infantry brigades, for a total of 22 brigades.
This hardly implies the kind of overwhelming superiority in the desert sector that the media talks about. Still, with the Pakistani base of Rahim Yar Khan less than 100 kilometers from India, the possibility existed that India could quickly cut the north-south trunk route between Karachi and the north, isolating Pakistani forces into two halves.
Three things were wrong with this cheerful (for India) scenario of a crushing superiority.
One, Pakistan has alternate routes running along the west bank of the Indus River. Cutting the trunk route would certainly upset commerce, it would barely slow down military operations. And Rahim Yar Khan aside, Pakistan has ample space to trade for time. In 1971, for example, in the deep desert further south, Pakistan held off seven Indian brigade with two of its own while keeping two more in reserve.
Second, if Pakistan sent its strike corps against the southern end of the vital Punjab theatre, this would force one Indian strike corps to displace northward to meet the threat. Ten Indian brigades would shift, leaving 18 brigades to Pakistan's now reduced total of 15. India would still have more armor, but in practical terms, this is no superiority worth mention.
Three, Pakistan had two more divisions than thought in the area: an armored and a light armored division, both post 1999 raisings that while possibly not ready in mid-winter, are certainly ready now. It is also almost certain that its strike corps either has a third division now or that a reserve GHQ division is available. Two Pakistani independent brigades have disappeared into the new divisions, and we do not know if they have been a yet replaced. Lets assume they haven't, and lets assume that one of the new Pakistani divisions still only has two brigades. That would change the equation to 25 Pakistani brigades to 28 Indian if that extra division we mentioned is unavailable, and 28 to 28 if it is. Either way, there is no superiority.
But wont the vastly numerically superior Indian Air Force quickly attain air superiority and destroy Pakistan's armor in the desert? We are all entitled to our fantasies, but sorry, this will not be the case. India will not gain anything except local air superiority for at least a month. During that time, Pakistan will also have local air superiority over its chosen sectors. We'll discuss this in detail another time; for now, the reader has only to remember that an Indian division will be lucky to get 10 CAS sorties a day.
Now, any real military analyst knows that above we are really only playing with figures. The attacker has an enormous advantage in the desert: two armored divisions need five to contain is an old staff axiom; if you fail to contain then all bets are off. There are so many caveats to the above balance as to render any generalization invalid. Conversely, however, we have to start our assessment at some point, and then start looking at the exceptions. The raw figures are the right place to start.
To be continued.
Return To Top June 5, 2002
June 4, 2002
India target of PSYWAR
December 3, 1971: The Day Pakistan Preempted - but Actually Did Not June 3
Letter to the Editor from Johann Price
India's Lack of Good Military Options June 2
Letter to the Editor from Eric Bindle June 2
India and Pakistan: Crisis Management and Warfighting Styles June 1
Washington's Silly Season May 31
Pakistan and its western border May 29
Understanding Musharraf's Mind May 27
Indian Troop Strength In Kashmir May 26
India Target of PSYWAR
Forwarded by our editor Amitava Dutta, this article is by Mr. B. Ram, a former high-ranking officer in India's intelligence agency, the RAW. The reference is www.saag.org.
[Mr. Raman, given his previous line of business, understandably takes a darker and more conspiratorial view of events. Nonetheless, he has proved well-informed in the past. What he says here is not new: anyone involved in the Indian national security process should know first-hand by now what Mr. Raman is saying. Nonetheless, he is the first to publicly state the reality so strongly. That he has to say it at all shows only that India has its share of foolish decision-makers who simply don't understand how the US works, and what a high price a country ends up paying by involving the Americans in their business.
Indian decision-makers get shocked, shocked that the US is in the region not because Indians are so brilliant, so wise, so loveable and so irresistible that the Americans come begging to serve us, but because they have their own interests.
As foreign masters go, the Americans are probably fairer than anyone else in world history. They give respect; if you cooperate with them they avoid needlessly humiliating you; unlike the British, they are genuinely prepared to be your friend; and if they benefit by - say 100 - they are quite prepared to 50-50 on the gain. That's generous by the standards of foreign masters. The Americans, however, can be just as ruthless as our former comrades the Soviets were with their satellites in whipping you back into line if you don't behave.
Your editor may be wrong in feeling India is about to feel Uncle Sam's lash for its belligerence. It may well be those who are arguing that the US is fed up with President Musharraf and is prepared to unleash India to punish him if he doesn't get back in line are right.
At the same time, if India thinks just because the US may be prepared to slip the leash that we can act as we want, we are very mistaken. Subtler forms of restraints will be used, but the US will be ready to cinch the choke collar if we get out of hand. As Mr. Raman points out, advisories to foreign nationals to leave and studies of damage caused by the hypothetical nuclear war the US fears, may well be no coincidence. Just a gentle flicking of the lash here?
Your editor lived for so many years with an Indian ruling class that was so convinced of its brilliance and its ability to handle the bull-elephant strong, but ant-brained Americans, that he almost welcomes the prospect of watching the Americans making the Indians run their maze. What's happening in South Asia is a horrible nightmare for us old-fashioned nationalists, and your editor will talk about the subject more soon.
But you know what? Every time your editor starts moaning about the American camel having been permitting to put its nose in our tent, another thought stops him.
The truth is, our leaders and our elite have failed our people. We have robbed them of two generations worth of prosperity; and they have no security inside the country or outside. Our elite has failed so miserably to provide the simple basics of good governance that your editor wonders: maybe its wrong for us nationalists to stand on our pride. After all, isn't that what the socialists did in Russia, China, Cuba, so much of the 3rd world? Took pride for themselves and gave nothing to their people, in effect making the people pay for the pride?
Since we've failed to look after our people, maybe its better to give someone else a chance at correcting the mistakes we made, for example in Kashmir.
After all, should the average Indian accept a master who is corrupt, degenerate, and ineffectual, just because he is of the same color? We've done such a bad job of looking after our country that just about anyone
else could probably do a better job.
After the Cold War ended, the American national security elite became seriously underemployed. So maybe we should give them the chance they want to sort out our national security problems. Editor]
1. India has been the target of a psychological warfare (PSYWAR) being waged against it not only by Gen. Pervez Musharraf, but also by the West.
2. The PSYWAR of Musharraf is evident in the hot-again- cold- again statements of Musharraf, his ministerial colleagues and officials on the nuclear issue and in the recent missile firings. As pointed out by me in my two articles on the missile firings, which are available at www.saag.org, the Pakistani PSYWAR has the following purposes:
* To reassure his own Armed Forces and people about Pakistan's nuclear capability.
* To create nervousness and confusion in Indian public opinion.
* To create alarm in the international community about the prospects of a nuclear war in this region.
3. The evidence of the Western PSYWAR could be seen in the wide dissemination of a Pentagon study about the effect of a possible nuclear war on the civilian population and in the orchestrated advisories to Western citizens to leave India.
4. Why should the West carry on a PSYWAR against India? Because it apparently feels that despite the considerable advance made by it towards accepting the Indian position on the role of Pakistani terrorists in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K), India is not reciprocating by showing some flexibility on the question of deescalation. Another reason is that the West, particularly the US, is genuinely worried about the impact of the continuing confrontation on the war against terrorism in Afghanistan.
5. Western advisories to their nationals not to visit or to leave conflict-prone areas are not new. The US and Canada issued advisories to their citizens not to visit India after the Mumbai blasts of March,1993, but those advisories did not ask their citizens already living in India to leave.
6. Before issuing the advisories relating to India, they had issued similar advisories relating to Pakistan, but there is a qualitative difference between those issued with regard to Pakistan and those issued with regard to India.
7. The advisories relating to Pakistan were issued in a low-profile and routine manner by junior officials in order not to cause any panic. The advisories relating to India have been issued in a disturbingly high-profile manner, with the co-operation of the BBC and the CNN. Jack Straw, the British Foreign Secretary, himself issued the advisory in a special media conference convened for this purpose.
8. The advisories became the subject of "Breaking News" bulletins and the BBC and the CNN led with it for nearly 24 hours, with the BBC showing dramatic visuals of foreigners leaving India. There were two tell-tale indications in the comments of those leaving who were interviewed by the media. A British national said: " We have been ordered to leave." A UN official was quoted as saying: 'There was considerable pressure on the UN by the USA and the UK to issue similar advisories in respect of UN officials and their families."
9. Two weapons in their PSYWAR arsenal, which the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the MI-6, the British external intelligence, often use are such malignly-orchestrated advisories and inducing nervousness in the foreign institutional investors (FIIs) in order to make them withdraw their money from countries on which they want to exercise psychological pressure.
10. In a piece on the possibility of the use of such PSYWAR weapons against India on the nuclear issue written in 1996 ("Business Line" , May 22, 1996), this writer had said: " What better way of pressurising than to create a bust in the stock market through obliging FIIs and prevent international institutions from going to the aid of India as they did in the case of Mexico, unless and until it (India) agrees to co-operate with the US on the nuclear issue? These are the games which the external powers, and more particularly the US, have not hesitated to play and it is better to remain sensitised to this danger, even if the above-painted scenes may seem far-fetched."
11. After the stock and currency markets collapsed in Thailand and Indonesia in 1997, responsible leaders of the ASEAN had suspected that the collapse was engineered by the USA by inducing George Soros to withdraw his FII investments from the region in order to punish the ASEAN for disregarding the US pleas not to admit the military regime of Myanmar into the ASEAN. These are standard PSYWAR techniques adopted by the CIA and the MI-6 on the instructions of their Governments.
12. India has scored significant successes in its diplomacy against Pakistan and the entire world has come to the support of India on the Pakistan-sponsored terrorism issue. The diplomatic pressure has to be kept up, but has the time come for showing some positive response to Western concerns over the de-escalation issue?
13. India's post-December 13, 2001, mobilisation has paid dividends and the capability of our Armed Forces to keep up this state of mobilisation for some more months is not in doubt, but at what psychological cost to our economy?
14. Economically, Pakistan has nothing much to lose from continuing tension. It has hardly any FII investment and the direct investment has dried up for the last two years. Its foreign exchange reserves, even after the tremendous cash flow since October 7,2001, are only US $ 5.25 billion as against India's US $ 50 billion plus. [$55 billion now. Editor]
15. While everybody should support the Government if it decides to take the military option, before taking such a decision the Government should keep in view that exclusive reliance on the military option has rarely put a definitive end to terrorism. The US airstrike on Libya in 1986 could not prevent Lockerbie. The US Cruise missile attacks on the terrorist infrastructure in Afghanistan in August, 1998, could not prevent the attack on the US naval ship Cole in October, 2000, and the terrorist strikes of September 11, 2001, in the USA. Israel's counter-terrorism operations were most effective when it relied on covert actions as it did against Black September and the PLO infrastructure then based in Tunisia, but became increasingly ineffective after it started relying on direct military strikes. Despite the USA's immense financial and military resources, its military strikes in Afghanistan for nearly eight months now have not ended terrorism.
16. In the case of religiously-motivated suicide terrorism, direct and open military strikes have often the contrary effect of strengthening the motivation of the terrorists and adding to their irrationality.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-Mail: Mr. B. Raman )
Return To Top June 4, 2002
June 3, 2002
December 3, 1971: The Day Pakistan Preempted - but Actually Did Not
Letter to the Editor from Johann Price
India's Lack of Good Military Options June 2
Letter to the Editor from Eric Bindle June 2
India and Pakistan: Crisis Management and Warfighting Styles June 1
Washington's Silly Season May 31
Pakistan and its western border May 29
Understanding Musharraf's Mind May 27
Indian Troop Strength In Kashmir May 26
December 3, 1971: The Day Pakistan Preempted - but Actually Did Not
Someone did ask about your editor's comment December 3, 1971 in a previous commentary. Many western observers have been concerned least Pakistan, perceiving itself as inferior in conventional force, assume an Indian attack is about to begin and preempts, triggering a war that the west, at least, feels is better avoided. Your editor has been saying that both sides act very cautiously. Does not the Pakistani preemptive air strike on December 3, 1971 prove that Pakistan can and did preempt, thus negating your editor's argument about cautious behavior?
Well, yes and no. First, the 1971 War was already well underway when Pakistan attacked. Indian forces had crossed into East Pakistan on November 21/22nd and were already engaged in heavy fighting. India and Pakistan were already at war, and just about everyone in the world seemed to know it except the Indian people, most of whom to this day believe Pakistan started the 1971 War by attacking on December 3, 1971.
Pakistan's air strike was an absolutely last minute effort, made without any prior intent or preparation. That is why it consisted of exactly 28 aircraft, whereas Pakistan could have launched 150 at a minimum had it acted with premeditation.
The strike was launched because Pakistan believed that India was about to attack in the west also. Ironically, it had good reason to believe this was true, because India was indeed about to attack but at the very last minute changed its mind. Since India was not in the business of sending polite advance notice to Pakistan of its tactical intentions, Pakistan did not know the Indian attack had been cancelled.
To that extent we can say that yes, we have at least one case where Pakistan did preempt. To the extent that the war was already two weeks old, however, this would be an artificial construct. True preemption would have come in October, when Pakistan was fully ready to strike but India was not. Indian generals were seriously concerned about the possibility, and relieved not only when it did not happen, but doubly relieved Pakistan had given them an excuse to launch their planned offensive.
Pakistan in 1971 was much weaker militarily in India and thus had an incentive to preempt. The same imbalance does not exist at the present time. We talked briefly about the Kashmir balance between north of Chaamb and the Neelum Valley in northwest Kashmir; we will discuss soon other sector balances in greater detail.
Incidentally, we ask our readers to be very careful when dealing with figures such as Pakistan has 180,000 men on its side of the Kashmir border and India has 250,000. This implies no superiority for India. Pakistan's logistic bases are much closer to the Line of Control than India's and it has much better lateral road links. Pakistan needs fewer logistic troops on its side, and can bring in reserves within hours. India has an immensely difficult logistical position in Kashmir; for one thing, most of the movement of supplies and men must move through the Pathankot choke point. If that were interdicted or closed, India would be cut off in Jammu and Kashmir. So not only does India have many more logistics troops in the theatre, it sends its reserves in at mobilization.
Factors like these are well known to serious students of India and Pakistan - your editor has met many such students from the US National Defense College, for example. Whether anyone who actually makes policy and gives orders in the US national security apparatus knows details like this is, however, open to question.
Return To Top June 3, 2002
Letter to the Editor from Johann Price
It seems to me that the Indians goal is to provoke the Pakistanis into attacking in order to deny them the defensive advantage while maintaining it themselves, both in military and diplomatic terms. The Pakistanis seemed to be cooperating by saying things that any war would be fought on the Indian side, etc. The specific trigger the Indians might use could be the Indus Water Treaty.
[Mr. Price, our executive editor, brings up a point that has been worrisome to your editor. For those who may not have been following the news, one option India is considering to raise the costs of supporting terrorism in Kashmir is to abrogate the Indus Water Treaty. Given that Pakistan is a primarily an agricultural state, such an action will almost certainly lead to war. Your editor, and some other people, have been wondering why India is acting so recklessly. Mr. Price gives what may be the first plausible explanation. In this case India's action, if it did abrogate the treaty, would not be reckless but a carefully worked out provocation. Mr. Price's observation also fits in neatly with another Indian predilection: India goes to extraordinary lengths not to be perceived as the aggressor. We will discuss this at another time. Editor.]
Return To Top June 3, 2002
June 2, 2002
India's Lack of Good Military Options
Letter to the Editor from Eric Bindle
India and Pakistan: Crisis Management and Warfighting Styles June 1
Washington's Silly Season May 31
Relocation of Islamic fundamentalists from the Caucasus to the Middle East May 30
Pakistan and its western border May 29
Understanding Musharraf's Mind May 27
Indian Troop Strength In Kashmir May 26
India's Lack of Good Military Options
Now daily we are treated to media pronouncements that India has a 2 ½ edge over Pakistan and so Pakistan would have to resort to nuclear weapons if India attacked. What's so sad about this is one has only to pick up the IISS Military Balance to see it isn't true. We'll discuss this at another point; for now the following generalizations will have to suffice.
On the ground, India can commit 30 divisions by stripping the rest of its fronts. Pakistan can provide 24. This does not equate to a 2 ½ edge. In armor India has a 1 ½ times edge, which is meaningless: armor used defensively by a competent army can hold off three times stronger forces indefinitely. India has about the same edge in artillery, but again, to a defending army this makes no difference. India has a marginal edge in numbers of infantry battalions; again, to a defender this is of no consequence, particularly since he has a large number of territorial defense battalions to boost his regular army.
India cannot translate its clear maritime superiority into a strategic advantage. The Pakistan Navy is not seeking to engage the Indian Navy in a replay of Jutland or Midway, it is seeking solely to defend its coast, and this it can do with ease. India's superiority in aircraft numbers is absolutely meaningless because again, Pakistan is seeking just to defend.
India has no capability for a long war. Every tank or fighter aircraft that is destroyed will not be replaced until after the war; equipment reserves are low, and understandably so. You cannot maintain a 1.3 million man military on an annual $13 billion budget, a substantial fraction of which goes toward CI operations without putting everything you have in the shop window and keeping nothing in the warehouse.
In 1999, India had to use 30,000 troops and spend six weeks ejecting perhaps a tenth that number of Pakistani troops holed up in the Kargil area, and at that the Indians had air support, whereas Pakistan did not as much as reinforce its positions. This is in no way attributable to a lack of competence or valor. The ferocity and determination with which Indian infantry attacked Pakistani positions has never been seen in an Indo-Pakistan War. It is attributable to the nature of mountain warfare.
True that in Kargil India had to fight up mountain; everywhere else in Kashmir it will fight down mountain. Yet, there will be no 10-1 numerical superiority this time. It will be an overall one to one, with local margins of superiority going up to 1½ or sometimes twice the defender's strength. Margins like this are a bit of a yawn for the defender in the mountains.
The Indian military understand all this, which is why it has been extremely cautious about hitting back at Pakistan.
The Indian Army would like to capture the Haji Pir Pass and pinch out the bulge between Poonch and Uri. It did so in 1965, but then had to give back the area after the peace settlement. The heaviest infiltration comes from this area, and capturing it would not just provide India a solid psychological boost to the country, it would greatly simplify some of the military difficulties if one day India decided it wanted West Kashmir back.
The problem is, of course, that Pakistan realizes this perfectly well. In 1965 it had just 12 battalions to defend the front from the Neelum Valley to north of Chaamb. India had forty five battalions, almost a 4 to 1 superiority. Today Pakistan X Corps has 50 battalions without calling on the reserve XI Corps. India can put in 60 battalions north of Chaamb to the Neelum Valley, and more than in 1965, many battalions will be protecting lines of communications. These figures require no discussion. Of course, India could pull troops from other points outside the theatre to increase its strength in Kashmir. That also allows Pakistan to transfer more troops to Kashmir, so India has no net gain.
India also knows an attack on the Haji Pir will not remain limited, and the one thing it is not looking for is an unlimited war.
Commando raids sound good - to those who have been watching too many movies. You don't make heliborne commando raids without local air superiority. In this case, air superiority cannot be gained. You also don't make commando raids when the adversary is sitting waiting for you around each of your likely targets. India is, of course, free to use overland infiltration, except for the problem of the other side waiting for you. And it will sound a bit ridiculous when at great cost the commandos return to report: "Sir, we destroyed sixteen tents and a tea shop", because that's about what the training bases consist of.
Some of the other options being tossed about - not by the military to be fair - smack of total fantasy. Blockading Karachi is one such brought up repeatedly. Just because India has a 5-1 superiority in warships does not mean it can blockade Karachi. There is something called the Exocet and something called the Harpoon. Pakistan has both - not a great many to be sure, but enough.
Revisit the Falklands. The British lost four frigates/destroyers - with the Argentine pilots flying at extreme range, and with many of their bombs failing to explode because of age. The Royal Navy had the latest anti-missile systems, and yet, every Argentine Exocet launched resulted in nerve-racking waiting to see which ship would be the next to get hit. Who is going to provide Indian warships off Karachi with air cover? The one lonely carrier India has, with a handful of Harriers? In 1971, India could get away with attacking Karachi because the Pakistanis had nothing by way of air cover or maritime reconnaissance. Their three modern submarines had hardly entered service - and Bengali crew members had deserted or were suspect. The situation today is completely different. An integrated defense based on missile firing submarines and frigates, missile firing helicopters and fighter aircraft, and missile firing reconnaissance aircraft is waiting for any Indian fleet. That is if the 40 international warships in Pakistani waters or off the Makran kindly consent to get out of the way.
The truth of the matter is that India knows perfectly well it has few options. That is why India has been aiming at Washington, not at Islamabad. India wants America to do its dirty work. So far the strategy seems to be working. In the last six months the Americans have repeatedly turned the screws on Pakistan, more tightly each day. India has won more victories in the opinion war than it has in 50 years. India is golden, Pakistan is a pariah state. As long as the Americans keep increasing the pressure, India will stay its hand.
Thanks to the immense stupidity of Pakistan's ISI - it has not been known till now for making many mistakes - Pakistan has completely played into India's hands. The ISI cannot let go of its little darlings, the cute fighters it paid, fed, trained, and protected, the ones who specialize in killing civilians, old men, women and babies. We speak of the Taliban and the ISI's new friends, the Al Qaida. Pakistan has shifted perhaps 3000 of these to Kashmir, hoping to fool the US into believing that they are actually Kashmiri freedom fighters.
Well, the Americans are not fooled. Nonetheless, India really will have to wait several months to let the US do what the US has to. Washington has made it very clear to India that India will forfeit all the good will it has gained if it goes to war with Pakistan. What would really help take domestic pressure off the Indian Government if the latter could tell its people what the Americans are doing for India.
But then the Indian Government wouldn't get any credit. Further, the Indian Government would have to tell its people the price that Washington is asking in return, and the sums already paid for American help over Kashmir. The Indian people might not like that at all.
Return To Top June 2, 2002
Letter to the Editor from Eric Bindle
In "Washington's Silly Season", and in the "...Crisis Management and Warfighting Styles" you make good points. I would like to point out though, that in all likelihood Washington is probably fully aware of the true dangers on nuclear war over there. Much of this is really for US consumption and is essentially a media "spin". When nothing happens nuclear wise, it will appear that the US/Bush has "defused" the situation and ALL HAIL the wonderful guy in the White House. This in reality is exactly Like the Cuban missile crisis. There never was any danger of the world being blown up then. The Soviets put missiles into Cuba cause their ICBMs didn't work, and the odds of getting bombers into the US were woefully slim. The US had overwhelming nuclear superiority; the US could have fought a nuclear war at the time and won. Yet, what are the popular conceptions of what happened?? JFK as hero for facing down Nikita and not blowing up the world either. Look at things in light of domestic (US) politics and a lot of things make sense.
Return To Top June 2, 2002
June 1, 2002
India and Pakistan: Crisis Management and Warfighting Styles
Diplomacy versus Conflict - the real Middle East War
New Mideast Deal: DebkaFile May 31
Washington's Silly Season May 31
Relocation of Islamic fundamentalists from the Caucasus to the Middle East May 30
Pakistan and its western border May 29
Understanding Musharraf's Mind May 27
Indian Troop Strength In Kashmir May 26
India and Pakistan: Crisis Management and Warfighting Styles
The defense analysis field consists of two types of analysts. One gravitates to organizations like Orbat.com. He studies the nuts and bolts of defense. He is diffident in expressing his opinions: the more he learns, the harder it becomes to generalize. The other sort has no inclination, patience, or capability for real research on the subject, but loves to pontificate about Big Issues. So you have people who know what they're talking about, but don't want to talk; and people who do not know what they are talking about, but want to talk.
If academics in general know little about defense issues, given the lack of importance of India and Pakistan, we are even more vulnerable to lectures by people who know little about the region.
You editor is going to make a few generalizations. Anyone unhappy with any of them can write in, and he will try and explain better.
In the past 55 years, we have a large base of data to draw from. India and Pakistan have engaged in open, declared war in 1947-48, 1965, and 1971. They have engaged in limited fighting in 1965 (Rann of Kutch) and 1999 (Kargil). They have been engaged in an insurgency/CI situation continuously between 1987-present; some date it as 1989-present. There have been any number of mobilization crises: there were two in the 1950s (your editor does not have his notes at hand), there was Brasstacks/Trident in 1986-87, there were two crises that could have led to war in the late 1980s, there was the Siachin War of 1984-today, there was the winter 2001-02 mobilization, and of course, the present situation.
There is a discernable pattern in all these crises.
1. Extreme Caution Before Going to War Both sides are exceptionally hesitant to cross that final red line between peace and war. Pakistan because it is the weaker and has more to lose if things go wrong, India for many reasons we can discuss another day. The proof of this is that India has been under Pakistani attack for 15 years and has never retaliated.
2. India has Initiated Hostilities Twice Once was in 1971. Because of various reasons, the capability gap between India and Pakistan was the widest it has ever been; even then, India laid the ground by years of covert action in East Bengal, and could take advantage of Pakistan's Civil War. India still took eight months to prepare the diplomatic and military field before attacking, and still went in only for a limited war with limited aims. A more typical Indian action is Siachin 1984: whatever the original aims, India limited itself very strictly to grabbing a few hundred square kilometers of No Man's Land.
3. Pakistan has Attacked Four Times Pakistan initiated hostilities in the Rann of Kutch, Kashmir in 1947-48 and 1965, and in Kargil 1999. In two cases it kept its aims very limited. Kutch was a brigade action against a few border posts. Kargil was a grab of a few hundred square kilometers that India vacated every winter. Kashmir 1947-48 and 1965 were bold moves with big stakes. The circumstances were so unusual that we'd need much more time to discuss them; in any case, no one is talking of Pakistan starting a war at this time.
4. Demonstrated Warfighting Behavior Is Also Exceptionally Cautious Both sides have repeatedly shown on the battlefield that they operate with extreme caution and much thought. There are any number of break-points at which the situation can be deescalated without difficulty.
5. Both Sides Quickly Accept International Intervention A fundamental tenet of Indo-Pakistan strategic doctrine is that international intervention will bring hostilities to an early end: early as in days and weeks. Kashmir 1947-48 was the sole exception, for many reasons. Siachin and Kutch do not count because they were true sideshows and both sides carefully avoided escalation: India in 1965 and Pakistan in 1999.
Because of the above reasons, people in India and Pakistan are perfectly calm even as the west, and the US in particular, whips itself into a frenzy about an imminent war. The US is hopelessly guilty of assuming India and Pakistan think like the US does. In fact, Washington is badly aggravating the situation even as it says it is trying to calm things. This entire situation would not have arises had Washington not jumped in - we'll discuss this day after tomorrow.
United States analysts are relying on two untenable assumptions to justify their war scares.
First, they assume that one side or the other will do something rash because both sides lack accurate intelligence on the other, and each fears the other may gain an advantage by striking first. Bosh, twaddle, and sewage. This is America talking, not India and Pakistan, and it's because of such talk that to this day many in the 3rd World and Europe are frightened of America than of the Soviets in years past, and Iraq today. A knowledgeable reader is sure to bring up the events of the late afternoon of December 3, 1971, but this is yet another issue we'll have to discuss later. It has no relevance to the present situation.
Second, they assume that any conflict could escalate to a nuclear exchange. Incredible as it may seem to Americans, when they talk like this, the average Indian or Pakistani is not slobberingly grateful that wise America is concerned to see the bad kids don't get into trouble. The typical reaction in the subcontinent is far too rude to repeat in a family-oriented website like ours. What Americans need to see - and some in Washington do see it - is that President Musharraf's nuclear threats are not directed at India but at Washington. The Indians and Pakistanis are acting unconcerned not because they are stupid, uneducated natives who don't know what damage a nuclear warhead inflicts. They are acting unconcerned because even if the two came to blows - and we'll discuss tomorrow a likely course if that happens - they know the war will not escalate.
This is because neither side has open-ended objectives. India simply wants to make Pakistan pay a price for sending terrorists - they are freedom fighters to Pakistanis - into Kashmir. It does not want to destroy Pakistan, or even to take back Kashmir. Pakistan has till now paid no price at all for the Kashmir insurgency. Quite the reverse: a casual back of the envelope calculation shows that Pakistan is spending one dollar to make India spend a thousand dollars in Kashmir. That the Indians have allowed this happens proves only what venal and corrupt leaders it has, but that's another matter. Pakistan simply wants to continue the insurgency. These are not issues of national survival that require any talk of nuclear weapons. They especially do not need to be placed in a US intellectual framework that had little merit even for the Americans.
Return To Top June 1, 2002
Diplomacy versus Conflict - the real Middle East War
From our colleague Richard M. Bennett of AFI Research.
There are a stream of uncorroborated and at times fanciful reports emanating from the Middle East that would suggest that the United States has a new found interest in rescuing Israel from an impasse over Palestine that military action alone is incapable of solving. The increasing urgency felt in Washington has led to bringing Egypt back into the negotiations as a major player and promoting certain Palestinian leaders considered largely untainted by close involvement in the Intifada or Islamic terrorism as either potential replacements for Yasser Arafat or as a balance to his remaining power base. Egypt is a natural partner for Israel in any attempt to defuse the Palestinian uprising, particularly as Cairo is in a position to control events in the Gaza Strip and restrict the activities of Hamas, while it also has a long-term interest in the demilitarization of the Sinai--Negev region with an eye to tourism and other economic development.
The position of Saudi Arabia remains less clear as although the recent Saudi peace plan was heavily touted by both Riyadh and Washington and may indeed have opened certain minds to a dialogue, the Saudi Governments long term aims may conflict with the present US-Egyptian-Israeli round of talks. Saudi Arabia and particularly its intelligence service are openly competing with Iran for influence and have gained considerable control over certain operational aspects of Hamas, based predominately in the Gaza Strip. It has also become clear that large numbers of Chechen fighters have been relocated to the Middle East and will operate effectively as a Saudi asset in the ongoing conflict in the region.
Secret negotiations between the US Government and other Middle Eastern states such as Syria and Iran have been under way for some time and intermediaries are reported to be working on a face-saving plan to defuse the situation in southern Lebanon to allow for the withdrawal of Iranian and Syrian forces and thereby avoid a major confrontation between Hizbollah, its main supporters and an increasingly restive Israel.Washington quite rightly recognizes that a major Israeli assault on the Beka'a Valley could well lead to a regional war that would probably fatally derail any US plans for the invasion of Iraq.
Washington may rethink war on Iraq
Those plans are already firmly on the back burner for now as Intelligence reports suggest that Saddam Hussein will strongly resist any attempt to overthrow his regime and may indeed now have the weapons at his disposal to cause unacceptable levels of destruction to the invading forces and Iraqs nearest neighbours, including the vital oil producing areas of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf. The United States Defence Department has also signalled that a major rethink of the over-optimistic claims originally being made about the size of force needed for a successful invasion and indeed the timescale is long overdue.
A more realistic view of the military options in the region may now allow Washington to ease Russia back into the area as an important influence. Moscow needs hard currency from massive arms deals with Syria, Iraq and Iran and in return for Washington's acceptance of Russia's newly restored and potentially dominating position in the area it would be expected that President Putin would exercise his new found influence to persuade those countries to abandon or at least greatly scale down their support for terrorism and open hostility to Israel.
Such a scenario would indeed allow Washington to claim that democracy had won a major victory over international terrorism by means of cleaver diplomacy without risking the political embarrassment of large numbers of bodybags arriving at Andrews Air Force Base. Perhaps it is too much to hope that Washington will be adept enough to grasp the opportunity to win the War on Terrorism by statesmanship and exerting its economic and diplomatic influence, rather than by outright bullying and military action alone. It is true that both methods must run in parallel and that ultimately the military sanction may be the only one that works, but there are many potentially effective paths open to victory before President Bush need rely on the use of armed force as the only possible solution.
Return To Top June 1, 2002